Study on the complexity pricing game and coordination of the duopoly air conditioner market with disturbance demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Junhai; Xie, Lei

2016-03-01

The paper focuses on the dynamic pricing game of the duopoly air conditioner market with disturbance in demand and analyzes the influence of disturbance on the dynamic game system. Considering the demand for products, such as air conditioner, varies with different seasons, we assume three cases based on the condition of disturbance, including growth market (Case 1), declining market (Case 2) and completely random market (Case 3). By analyzing these three cases and making comparison among them, the paper shows that the growth market is more sensitive to the changing parameters such as the adjustment variable and the competitive factor than the declining market. It is more difficult to keep the system stable in a growth market. Although the demand is completely random, the dynamic system can reach a stable state, on condition that the adjustment variable is small enough. The results also indicate that the bullwhip effect between the order quantity and the actual demand is weakened gradually along with the price adjustment.

A boundary PDE feedback control approach for the stabilization of mortgage price dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigatos, G.; Siano, P.; Sarno, D.

2017-11-01

Several transactions taking place in financial markets are dependent on the pricing of mortgages (loans for the purchase of residences, land or farms). In this article, a method for stabilization of mortgage price dynamics is developed. It is considered that mortgage prices follow a PDE model which is equivalent to a multi-asset Black-Scholes PDE. Actually it is a diffusion process evolving in a 2D assets space, where the first asset is the house price and the second asset is the interest rate. By applying semi-discretization and a finite differences scheme this multi-asset PDE is transformed into a state-space model consisting of ordinary nonlinear differential equations. For the local subsystems, into which the mortgage PDE is decomposed, it becomes possible to apply boundary-based feedback control. The controller design proceeds by showing that the state-space model of the mortgage price PDE stands for a differentially flat system. Next, for each subsystem which is related to a nonlinear ODE, a virtual control input is computed, that can invert the subsystem's dynamics and can eliminate the subsystem's tracking error. From the last row of the state-space description, the control input (boundary condition) that is actually applied to the multi-factor mortgage price PDE system is found. This control input contains recursively all virtual control inputs which were computed for the individual ODE subsystems associated with the previous rows of the state-space equation. Thus, by tracing the rows of the state-space model backwards, at each iteration of the control algorithm, one can finally obtain the control input that should be applied to the mortgage price PDE system so as to assure that all its state variables will converge to the desirable setpoints. By showing the feasibility of such a control method it is also proven that through selected modification of the PDE boundary conditions the price of the mortgage can be made to converge and stabilize at specific reference values.

Modeling HIV/AIDS Drug Price Determinants in Brazil: Is Generic Competition a Myth?

PubMed Central

Meiners, Constance; Sagaon-Teyssier, Luis; Hasenclever, Lia; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2011-01-01

Background Brazil became the first developing country to guarantee free and universal access to HIV/AIDS treatment, with antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) being delivered to nearly 190,000 patients. The analysis of ARV price evolution and market dynamics in Brazil can help anticipate issues soon to afflict other developing countries, as the 2010 revision of the World Health Organization guidelines shifts demand towards more expensive treatments, and, at the same time, current evolution of international legislation and trade agreements on intellectual property rights may reduce availability of generic drugs for HIV care. Methods and Findings Our analyses are based on effective prices paid for ARV procurement in Brazil between 1996 and 2009. Data panel structure was exploited to gather ex-ante and ex-post information and address various sources of statistical bias. In-difference estimation offered in-depth information on ARV market characteristics which significantly influence prices. Although overall ARV prices follow a declining trend, changing characteristics in the generic segment help explain recent increase in generic ARV prices. Our results show that generic suppliers are more likely to respond to factors influencing demand size and market competition, while originator suppliers tend to set prices strategically to offset compulsory licensing threats and generic competition. Significance In order to guarantee the long term sustainability of access to antiretroviral treatment, our findings highlight the importance of preserving and stimulating generic market dynamics to sustain developing countries' bargaining power in price negotiations undertaken with originator companies. PMID:21858138

Modeling HIV/AIDS drug price determinants in Brazil: is generic competition a myth?

PubMed

Meiners, Constance; Sagaon-Teyssier, Luis; Hasenclever, Lia; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2011-01-01

Brazil became the first developing country to guarantee free and universal access to HIV/AIDS treatment, with antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) being delivered to nearly 190,000 patients. The analysis of ARV price evolution and market dynamics in Brazil can help anticipate issues soon to afflict other developing countries, as the 2010 revision of the World Health Organization guidelines shifts demand towards more expensive treatments, and, at the same time, current evolution of international legislation and trade agreements on intellectual property rights may reduce availability of generic drugs for HIV care. Our analyses are based on effective prices paid for ARV procurement in Brazil between 1996 and 2009. Data panel structure was exploited to gather ex-ante and ex-post information and address various sources of statistical bias. In-difference estimation offered in-depth information on ARV market characteristics which significantly influence prices. Although overall ARV prices follow a declining trend, changing characteristics in the generic segment help explain recent increase in generic ARV prices. Our results show that generic suppliers are more likely to respond to factors influencing demand size and market competition, while originator suppliers tend to set prices strategically to offset compulsory licensing threats and generic competition. In order to guarantee the long term sustainability of access to antiretroviral treatment, our findings highlight the importance of preserving and stimulating generic market dynamics to sustain developing countries' bargaining power in price negotiations undertaken with originator companies.

The position profiles of order cancellations in an emerging stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Gao-Feng; Xiong, Xiong; Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Zhang, Wei

2013-04-01

Order submission and cancellation are two constituent actions of stock trading behaviors in order-driven markets. Order submission dynamics has been extensively studied for different markets, while order cancellation dynamics is less understood. There are two positions associated with a cancellation, that is, the price level in the limit-order book (LOB) and the position in the queue at each price level. We study the profiles of these two order cancellation positions through rebuilding the limit-order book using the order flow data of 23 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the year 2003. We find that the profiles of relative price levels where cancellations occur obey a log-normal distribution. After normalizing the relative price level by removing the factor of order numbers stored at the price level, we find that the profiles exhibit a power-law scaling behavior on the right tails for both buy and sell orders. When focusing on the order cancellation positions in the queue at each price level, we find that the profiles increase rapidly in the front of the queue, and then fluctuate around a constant value till the end of the queue. These profiles are similar for different stocks. In addition, the profiles of cancellation positions can be fitted by an exponent function for both buy and sell orders. These two kinds of cancellation profiles seem universal for different stocks investigated and exhibit minor asymmetry between buy and sell orders. Our empirical findings shed new light on the order cancellation dynamics and pose constraints on the construction of order-driven stock market models.

Econometric testing on linear and nonlinear dynamic relation between stock prices and macroeconomy in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borjigin, Sumuya; Yang, Yating; Yang, Xiaoguang; Sun, Leilei

2018-03-01

Many researchers have realized that there is a strong correlation between stock prices and macroeconomy. In order to make this relationship clear, a lot of studies have been done. However, the causal relationship between stock prices and macroeconomy has still not been well explained. A key point is that, most of the existing research adopts linear and stable models to investigate the correlation of stock prices and macroeconomy, while the real causality of that may be nonlinear and dynamic. To fill this research gap, we investigate the nonlinear and dynamic causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomy. Based on the case of China's stock prices and acroeconomy measures from January 1992 to March 2017, we compare the linear Granger causality test models with nonlinear ones. Results demonstrate that the nonlinear dynamic Granger causality is much stronger than linear Granger causality. From the perspective of nonlinear dynamic Granger causality, China's stock prices can be viewed as "national economic barometer". On the one hand, this study will encourage researchers to take nonlinearity and dynamics into account when they investigate the correlation of stock prices and macroeconomy; on the other hand, our research can guide regulators and investors to make better decisions.

Multi-attribute Regret-Based Dynamic Pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jumadinova, Janyl; Dasgupta, Prithviraj

In this paper, we consider the problem of dynamic pricing by a set of competing sellers in an information economy where buyers differentiate products along multiple attributes, and buyer preferences can change temporally. Previous research in this area has either focused on dynamic pricing along a limited number of (e.g. binary) attributes, or, assumes that each seller has access to private information such as preference distribution of buyers, and profit/price information of other sellers. However, in real information markets, private information about buyers and sellers cannot be assumed to be available a priori. Moreover, due to the competition between sellers, each seller faces a tradeoff between accuracy and rapidity of the pricing mechanism. In this paper, we describe a multi-attribute dynamic pricing algorithm based on minimax regret that can be used by a seller's agent called a pricebot, to maximize the seller's utility. Our simulation results show that the minimax regret based dynamic pricing algorithm performs significantly better than other algorithms for rapidly and dynamically tracking consumer attributes without using any private information from either buyers or sellers.

Analysing the Effect of Demand Uncertainty in Dynamic Pricing with EAs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shakya, Siddhartha; Oliveira, Fernando; Owusu, Gilbert

Dynamic pricing is a pricing strategy where a firm adjust the price for their products and services as a function of its perceived demand at different times. In this paper, we show how Evolutionary algorithms (EA) can be used to analyse the effect of demand uncertainty in dynamic pricing. The experiments are conducted in a range of dynamic pricing problems considering a number of different stochastic scenarios with a number of different EAs. The results are analysed, which suggest that higher demand fluctuation may not have adverse effect to the profit in comparison to the lower demand fluctuation, and that the reliability of EA for finding accurate policy could be higher when there is higher fluctuation then when there is lower fluctuation.

Determinants of branded prescription medicine prices in OECD countries.

PubMed

Kanavos, Panos G; Vandoros, Sotiris

2011-07-01

This paper investigates the determinants of the prices of branded prescription medicines across different regulatory settings and health care systems, taking into account their launch date, patent status, market dynamics and the regulatory context in which they diffuse. By using volume-weighted price indices, this paper analyzes price levels for a basket of prescription medicines and their differences in 15 OECD countries, including the United States and key European countries, the impact of distribution margins and generic entry on public prices and to what extent innovation, by means of introducing newer classes of medicines, contributes to price formation across countries. In doing so, the paper seeks to understand the factors that contribute to the existing differences in prices across countries, whether at an ex-factory or a retail level. The evidence shows that retail prices for branded prescription medicines in the United States are higher than those in key European and other OECD countries, but not as high as widely thought. Large differences in prices are mainly observed at an ex-factory level, but these are not the prices that consumers and payers pay. Cross-country differences in retail prices are actually not as high as expected and, when controlling for exchange rates, these differences can be even smaller. Product age has a significant effect on prices in all settings after having controlled for other factors. Price convergence is observed across countries for newer prescription medicines compared with older medicines. There is no evidence that originator brand prices fall after generic entry in the United States, a phenomenon known as the 'generics paradox'. Finally, distribution and taxes are important determinants of retail prices in several of the study countries. To the extent that remuneration of the distribution chain and taxation are directly and proportionately linked to product prices this is likely to persist over time.

Modeling and simulation of consumer response to dynamic pricing.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Valenzuela, J.; Thimmapuram, P.; Kim, J

2012-08-01

Assessing the impacts of dynamic-pricing under the smart grid concept is becoming extremely important for deciding its full deployment. In this paper, we develop a model that represents the response of consumers to dynamic pricing. In the model, consumers use forecasted day-ahead prices to shift daily energy consumption from hours when the price is expected to be high to hours when the price is expected to be low while maintaining the total energy consumption as unchanged. We integrate the consumer response model into the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive System (EMCAS). EMCAS is an agent-based model that simulates restructured electricity markets.more » We explore the impacts of dynamic-pricing on price spikes, peak demand, consumer energy bills, power supplier profits, and congestion costs. A simulation of an 11-node test network that includes eight generation companies and five aggregated consumers is performed for a period of 1 month. In addition, we simulate the Korean power system.« less

Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCollum, David L.; Jewell, Jessica; Krey, Volker; Bazilian, Morgan; Fay, Marianne; Riahi, Keywan

2016-07-01

Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-system-wide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 ∘C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty.

7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing... advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent butterfat, component prices, and advanced pricing factors shall be as follows. The prices and pricing factors described...

Health Sector Inflation Rate and its Determinants in Iran: A Longitudinal Study (1995–2008)

PubMed Central

TEIMOURIZAD, Abedin; HADIAN, Mohamad; REZAEI, Satar; HOMAIE RAD, Enayatollah

2014-01-01

Abstract Background Health price inflation rate is different from increasing in health expenditures. Health expenditures contain both quantity and prices but inflation rate contains prices. This study aimed to determine the factors that affect the Inflation Rate for Health Care Services (IRCPIHC) in Iran. Methods We used Central Bank of Iran data. We estimated the relationship between the inflation rate and its determinants using dynamic factor variable approach. For this purpose, we used STATA software. Results The study results revealed a positive relationship between the overall inflation as well as the number of dentists and health inflation. However, number of beds and physicians per 1000 people had a negative relationship with health inflation. Conclusion When the number of hospital beds and doctors increased, the competition between them increased, as well, thereby decreasing the inflation rate. Moreover, dentists and drug stores had the conditions of monopoly markets; therefore, they could change the prices easier compared to other health sectors. Health inflation is the subset of growth in health expenditures and the determinants of health expenditures are not similar to health inflation. PMID:26060721

Health Sector Inflation Rate and its Determinants in Iran: A Longitudinal Study (1995-2008).

PubMed

Teimourizad, Abedin; Hadian, Mohamad; Rezaei, Satar; Homaie Rad, Enayatollah

2014-11-01

Health price inflation rate is different from increasing in health expenditures. Health expenditures contain both quantity and prices but inflation rate contains prices. This study aimed to determine the factors that affect the Inflation Rate for Health Care Services (IRCPIHC) in Iran. We used Central Bank of Iran data. We estimated the relationship between the inflation rate and its determinants using dynamic factor variable approach. For this purpose, we used STATA software. The study results revealed a positive relationship between the overall inflation as well as the number of dentists and health inflation. However, number of beds and physicians per 1000 people had a negative relationship with health inflation. When the number of hospital beds and doctors increased, the competition between them increased, as well, thereby decreasing the inflation rate. Moreover, dentists and drug stores had the conditions of monopoly markets; therefore, they could change the prices easier compared to other health sectors. Health inflation is the subset of growth in health expenditures and the determinants of health expenditures are not similar to health inflation.

Stock price dynamics and option valuations under volatility feedback effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanniainen, Juho; Piché, Robert

2013-02-01

According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations under the volatility feedback effect by modeling the joint dynamics of stock price, dividends, and volatility in continuous time. Most importantly, our model predicts the negative effect of an increase in squared return volatility on the value of deep-in-the-money call options and, furthermore, attempts to explain the volatility puzzle. We theoretically demonstrate a mechanism by which the market price of diffusion return risk, or an equity risk-premium, affects option prices and empirically illustrate how to identify that mechanism using forward-looking information on option contracts. Our theoretical and empirical results support the relevance of the volatility feedback effect. Overall, the results indicate that the prevailing practice of ignoring the time-varying dividend yield in option pricing can lead to oversimplification of the stock market dynamics.

Comparative analysis of dynamic pricing strategies for managed lanes.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-06-01

The objective of this research is to investigate and compare the performances of different : dynamic pricing strategies for managed lanes facilities. These pricing strategies include real-time : traffic responsive methods, as well as refund options a...

Land-Price Dynamics Surrounding Large-Scale Land Development of Technopolis Gedebage, Bandung, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasanawi, A.; Winarso, H.

2018-05-01

In spite of its potential value to governments, detailed information on how land prices vary spatially in a city is very lacking. Land price in the city, especially around the development activity, is not known. There are some considerable studies showing that investment in land development increases the land market price; however, only a few are found. One of them is about the impact of large-scale investment by Sumarecon in Gedebage Bandung, which is planning to develop “Technopolis”, as the second center of Bandung Municipality.This paper discusses the land-price dynamics around the Technopolis Gedebage Bandung, using information obtained from many sources including an interview with experienced brokers. Appraised prices were given for different types of residential plot distinguished by tenure, distance from the main road, and infrastructural provision. This research aims to explain the dynamics of the land price surrounding the large-scale land development. The dynamics of the land price are described by the median land price market growth using the Surfer DEM software. The data analysis in Technopolis Gedebage Bandung shows the relative importance of land location, infrastructural provision and tenure (land title) for dynamics of the land price. The examination of data makes it possible to test whether and where there has been a spiraling of land prices. This paper argues that the increasing recent price has been consistently greater in suburban plots than that in the inner city as a result of the massive demand of the large-scale land development project. The increasing price of land cannot be controlled; the market price is rising very quickly among other things due to the fact that Gedebage will become the technopolis area. This, however, can indirectly burden the lower-middle-class groups, such as they are displaced from their previous owned-land, and implicate on ever-decreasing income as the livelihood resources (such as farming and agriculture) are lost.

The Price Equation, Gradient Dynamics, and Continuous Trait Game Theory.

PubMed

Lehtonen, Jussi

2018-01-01

A recent article convincingly nominated the Price equation as the fundamental theorem of evolution and used it as a foundation to derive several other theorems. A major section of evolutionary theory that was not addressed is that of game theory and gradient dynamics of continuous traits with frequency-dependent fitness. Deriving fundamental results in these fields under the unifying framework of the Price equation illuminates similarities and differences between approaches and allows a simple, unified view of game-theoretical and dynamic concepts. Using Taylor polynomials and the Price equation, I derive a dynamic measure of evolutionary change, a condition for singular points, the convergence stability criterion, and an alternative interpretation of evolutionary stability. Furthermore, by applying the Price equation to a multivariable Taylor polynomial, the direct fitness approach to kin selection emerges. Finally, I compare these results to the mean gradient equation of quantitative genetics and the canonical equation of adaptive dynamics.

From quantum mechanics to finance: Microfoundations for jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in diffusion price processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henkel, Christof

2017-03-01

We present an agent behavior based microscopic model that induces jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in the price process of a traded asset. We transfer dynamics of thermally activated jumps of an unexcited/excited two state system discussed in the context of quantum mechanics to agent socio-economic behavior and provide microfoundations. After we link the endogenous agent behavior to price dynamics we establish the circumstances under which the dynamics converge to an Itô-diffusion price processes in the large market limit.

Optimal dynamic pricing and replenishment policy for perishable items with inventory-level-dependent demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Lihao; Zhang, Jianxiong; Tang, Wansheng

2016-04-01

An inventory system for perishable items with limited replenishment capacity is introduced in this paper. The demand rate depends on the stock quantity displayed in the store as well as the sales price. With the goal to realise profit maximisation, an optimisation problem is addressed to seek for the optimal joint dynamic pricing and replenishment policy which is obtained by solving the optimisation problem with Pontryagin's maximum principle. A joint mixed policy, in which the sales price is a static decision variable and the replenishment rate remains to be a dynamic decision variable, is presented to compare with the joint dynamic policy. Numerical results demonstrate the advantages of the joint dynamic one, and further show the effects of different system parameters on the optimal joint dynamic policy and the maximal total profit.

7 CFR 1126.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1126.53 Section 1126.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1030.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1030.53 Section 1030.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1033.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1033.53 Section 1033.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1005.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1005.53 Section 1005.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1032.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.53 Section 1032.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1006.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1006.53 Section 1006.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1001.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1001.53 Section 1001.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1131.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1131.53 Section 1131.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

7 CFR 1007.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1007.53 Section 1007.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

Price performance following stock's IPO in different price limit systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Ting; Wang, Yue; Li, Ming-Xia

2018-01-01

An IPO burst occurred in China's stock markets in 2015, while price limit trading rules usually help to reduce the short-term trading mania on individual stocks. It is interesting to make clear the function of the price limits after IPOs. We firstly make a statistical analysis based on all the IPO stocks listed from 1990 to 2015. A high dependency exists between the activities in stock's IPO and various market environment. We also focus on the price dynamics in the first 40 trading days after the stock listed. We find that price limit system will delay the price movement, especially for the up-trend movements, which may lead to longer continuous price limit hits. Similar to our previous work, many results such as ;W; shape can be also observed in the future daily return after the price limit open. At last, we find most IPO measures show evident correlations with the following price limit hits. IPO stocks with lower first-day turnover and earning per share will be followed with a longer continuous price limit hits and lower future daily return under the newest trading rules, which give us a good way to estimate the occurrence of price limit hits and the following price dynamics. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the price dynamics after IPO events and offers potential practical values for investors.

Modeling the coupled return-spread high frequency dynamics of large tick assets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curato, Gianbiagio; Lillo, Fabrizio

2015-01-01

Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We present an approach based on the hidden Markov model, also known in econometrics as the Markov switching model, for the dynamics of price changes, where the latent Markov process is described by the transitions between spreads. We then use a finite Markov mixture of logit regressions on past squared price changes to describe temporal dependencies in the dynamics of price changes. The model can thus be seen as a double chain Markov model. We show that the model describes the shape of the price change distribution at different time scales, volatility clustering, and the anomalous decrease of kurtosis. We calibrate our models based on Nasdaq stocks and we show that this model reproduces remarkably well the statistical properties of real data.

How fast do stock prices adjust to market efficiency? Evidence from a detrended fluctuation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reboredo, Juan C.; Rivera-Castro, Miguel A.; Miranda, José G. V.; García-Rubio, Raquel

2013-04-01

In this paper we analyse price fluctuations with the aim of measuring how long the market takes to adjust prices to weak-form efficiency, i.e., how long it takes for prices to adjust to a fractional Brownian motion with a Hurst exponent of 0.5. The Hurst exponent is estimated for different time horizons using detrended fluctuation analysis-a method suitable for non-stationary series with trends-in order to identify at which time scale the Hurst exponent is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. Using high-frequency share price, exchange rate and stock data, we show how price dynamics exhibited important deviations from efficiency for time periods of up to 15 min; thereafter, price dynamics was consistent with a geometric Brownian motion. The intraday behaviour of the series also indicated that price dynamics at trade opening and close was hardly consistent with efficiency, which would enable investors to exploit price deviations from fundamental values. This result is consistent with intraday volume, volatility and transaction time duration patterns.

7 CFR 1030.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1030.50 Section 1030.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1124.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1124.50 Section 1124.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

Impact of European pharmaceutical price regulation on generic price competition: a review.

PubMed

Puig-Junoy, Jaume

2010-01-01

Although economic theory indicates that it should not be necessary to intervene in the generic drug market through price regulation, most EU countries intervene in this market, both by regulating the maximum sale price of generics (price cap) and by setting the maximum reimbursement rate, especially by means of reference pricing systems. We analyse current knowledge of the impact of direct price-cap regulation of generic drugs and the implementation of systems regulating the reimbursement rate, particularly through reference pricing and similar tools, on dynamic price competition between generic competitors in Europe. A literature search was carried out in the EconLit and PubMed databases, and on Google Scholar. The search included papers published in English or Spanish between January 2000 and July 2009. Inclusion criteria included that studies had to present empirical results of a quantitative nature for EU countries of the impact of price capping and/or regulation of the reimbursement rate (reference pricing or similar systems) on price dynamics, corresponding to pharmacy sales, in the generic drug market. The available evidence indicates that price-cap regulation leads to a levelling off of generic prices at a higher level than would occur in the absence of this regulation. Reference pricing systems cause an obvious and almost compulsory reduction in the consumer price of all pharmaceuticals subject to this system, to a varying degree in different countries and periods, the reduction being greater for originator-branded drugs than for generics. In several countries with a reference pricing system, it was observed that generics with a consumer price lower than the reference price do not undergo price reductions until the reference price is reduced, even when there are other lower-priced generics on the market (absence of price competition below the reference price). Beyond the price reduction forced by the price-cap and/or reference pricing regulation itself, the entry of new generic competitors is useful for lowering the real transaction price of purchases made by pharmacies (dynamic price competition at ex-factory level), although this effect is weaker or non-significant for official ex-factory prices and consumer prices in some countries. When maximum reimbursement systems such as reference pricing or similar types are applied, pharmacies are seen to receive large discounts on the price they pay for the pharmaceuticals, although these discounts are not transferred to the consumer price. The percentage discount offered to pharmacies in a country that uses a price-cap system combined with reference pricing is positively and significantly related to the number of generic competitors in the market for the pharmaceutical (dynamic price competition at ex-factory level).

7 CFR 1124.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1124.53 Section 1124.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.53. ...

A dynamic econometric model of agricultural wage determination in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Boyce, J K; Ravallion, M

1991-11-01

Economists applied data from 1949-1950 and 1980-1981 to a new dynamic model to examine the dynamics of determinants of agricultural wages in Bangladesh, particularly the effect of changes in relative prices of rice (the staple food) and productivity. Just a 20% rise in the price or rice was passed on in the agricultural wage rate within the current year. About 50% was passed on in the long run, however. Therefore an increase in the price of rice reduced the rice purchasing power of agricultural wages in the short and long term. In fact, the importance given to rice in the long run real wage rate was almost the same as the mean proportion of expenditure that an agricultural laborer in Bangladesh committed to rice and closely related food staples. Thus arise in the price of rice in comparison to other goods had limited effects on the long run real wage in terms of the bundle of goods typically consumed, but very adverse effects in the short run placing a high burden on the rural poor. On the other hand, the long run real wage rate fell considerably between the mid 1960s-early 1980s when overall agricultural productivity increased. The economists pointed out that this increased productivity may not have lowered long run real wage rates, but instead mitigating factors may have contributed to this fall. For example, population growth, rising landlessness, and insufficient economic growth in nonagricultural sectors resulted in a consistent growth in the labor supply. In conclusion, this new dynamic model showed that Bangladesh cannot depend only on agricultural growth to reduce the poverty of farmers.

7 CFR 1006.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1006.50 Section 1006.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1007.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1007.50 Section 1007.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1126.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1126.50 Section 1126.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1131.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1131.50 Section 1131.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1005.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1005.50 Section 1005.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1032.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.50 Section 1032.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1001.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1001.50 Section 1001.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

7 CFR 1033.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1033.50 Section 1033.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued..., and advanced pricing factors. See § 1000.50. ...

Toward quantum-like modeling of financial processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choustova, Olga

2007-05-01

We apply methods of quantum mechanics for mathematical modeling of price dynamics at the financial market. We propose to describe behavioral financial factors (e.g., expectations of traders) by using the pilot wave (Bohmian) model of quantum mechanics. Trajectories of prices are determined by two financial potentials: classical-like V(q) ("hard" market conditions, e.g., natural resources) and quantum-like U(q) (behavioral market conditions). On the one hand, our Bohmian model is a quantum-like model for the financial market, cf. with works of W. Segal, I. E. Segal, E. Haven, E. W. Piotrowski, J. Sladkowski. On the other hand, (since Bohmian mechanics provides the possibility to describe individual price trajectories) it belongs to the domain of extended research on deterministic dynamics for financial assets (C.W.J. Granger, W.A. Barnett, A. J. Benhabib, W.A. Brock, C. Sayers, J. Y. Campbell, A. W. Lo, A. C. MacKinlay, A. Serletis, S. Kuchta, M. Frank, R. Gencay, T. Stengos, M. J. Hinich, D. Patterson, D. A. Hsieh, D. T. Caplan, J.A. Scheinkman, B. LeBaron and many others).

Reduction of community alcohol problems: computer simulation experiments in three counties.

PubMed

Holder, H D; Blose, J O

1987-03-01

A series of alcohol abuse prevention strategies was evaluated using computer simulation for three counties in the United States: Wake County, North Carolina, Washington County, Vermont and Alameda County, California. A system dynamics model composed of a network of interacting variables was developed for the pattern of alcoholic beverage consumption in a community. The relationship of community drinking patterns to various stimulus factors was specified in the model based on available empirical research. Stimulus factors included disposable income, alcoholic beverage prices, advertising exposure, minimum drinking age and changes in cultural norms. After a generic model was developed and validated on the national level, a computer-based system dynamics model was developed for each county, and a series of experiments was conducted to project the potential impact of specific prevention strategies. The project concluded that prevention efforts can both lower current levels of alcohol abuse and reduce projected increases in alcohol-related problems. Without such efforts, already high levels of alcohol-related family disruptions in the three counties could be expected to rise an additional 6% and drinking-related work problems 1-5%, over the next 10 years after controlling for population growth. Of the strategies tested, indexing the price of alcoholic beverages to the consumer price index in conjunction with the implementation of a community educational program with well-defined target audiences has the best potential for significant problem reduction in all three counties.

Memory effects in stock price dynamics: evidences of technical trading

PubMed Central

Garzarelli, Federico; Cristelli, Matthieu; Pompa, Gabriele; Zaccaria, Andrea; Pietronero, Luciano

2014-01-01

Technical trading represents a class of investment strategies for Financial Markets based on the analysis of trends and recurrent patterns in price time series. According standard economical theories these strategies should not be used because they cannot be profitable. On the contrary, it is well-known that technical traders exist and operate on different time scales. In this paper we investigate if technical trading produces detectable signals in price time series and if some kind of memory effects are introduced in the price dynamics. In particular, we focus on a specific figure called supports and resistances. We first develop a criterion to detect the potential values of supports and resistances. Then we show that memory effects in the price dynamics are associated to these selected values. In fact we show that prices more likely re-bounce than cross these values. Such an effect is a quantitative evidence of the so-called self-fulfilling prophecy, that is the self-reinforcement of agents' belief and sentiment about future stock prices' behavior. PMID:24671011

Memory effects in stock price dynamics: evidences of technical trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garzarelli, Federico; Cristelli, Matthieu; Pompa, Gabriele; Zaccaria, Andrea; Pietronero, Luciano

2014-03-01

Technical trading represents a class of investment strategies for Financial Markets based on the analysis of trends and recurrent patterns in price time series. According standard economical theories these strategies should not be used because they cannot be profitable. On the contrary, it is well-known that technical traders exist and operate on different time scales. In this paper we investigate if technical trading produces detectable signals in price time series and if some kind of memory effects are introduced in the price dynamics. In particular, we focus on a specific figure called supports and resistances. We first develop a criterion to detect the potential values of supports and resistances. Then we show that memory effects in the price dynamics are associated to these selected values. In fact we show that prices more likely re-bounce than cross these values. Such an effect is a quantitative evidence of the so-called self-fulfilling prophecy, that is the self-reinforcement of agents' belief and sentiment about future stock prices' behavior.

The futility of utility: how market dynamics marginalize Adam Smith

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.

2000-10-01

Economic theorizing is based on the postulated, nonempiric notion of utility. Economists assume that prices, dynamics, and market equilibria are supposed to be derived from utility. The results are supposed to represent mathematically the stabilizing action of Adam Smith's invisible hand. In deterministic excess demand dynamics I show the following. A utility function generally does not exist mathematically due to nonintegrable dynamics when production/investment are accounted for, resolving Mirowski's thesis. Price as a function of demand does not exist mathematically either. All equilibria are unstable. I then explain how deterministic chaos can be distinguished from random noise at short times. In the generalization to liquid markets and finance theory described by stochastic excess demand dynamics, I also show the following. Market price distributions cannot be rescaled to describe price movements as ‘equilibrium’ fluctuations about a systematic drift in price. Utility maximization does not describe equilibrium. Maximization of the Gibbs entropy of the observed price distribution of an asset would describe equilibrium, if equilibrium could be achieved, but equilibrium does not describe real, liquid markets (stocks, bonds, foreign exchange). There are three inconsistent definitions of equilibrium used in economics and finance, only one of which is correct. Prices in unregulated free markets are unstable against both noise and rising or falling expectations: Adam Smith's stabilizing invisible hand does not exist, either in mathematical models of liquid market data, or in real market data.

Financial and technical feasibility of dynamic congestion pricing as a revenue generation source in Indiana : exploiting the availability of real-time information and dynamic pricing technologies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-10-19

"Highway stakeholders continue to support research studies that address critical issues of the current era, including congestion mitigation and revenue generation. A mechanism that addresses both concerns is congestion pricing which establishes a dir...

An exotic long-term pattern in stock price dynamics.

PubMed

Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping

2012-01-01

To accurately predict the movement of stock prices is always of both academic importance and practical value. So far, a lot of research has been reported to help understand the behavior of stock prices. However, some of the existing theories tend to render us the belief that the time series of stock prices are unpredictable on a long-term timescale. The question arises whether the long-term predictability exists in stock price dynamics. In this work, we analyze the price reversals in the US stock market and the Chinese stock market on the basis of a renormalization method. The price reversals are divided into two types: retracements (the downward trends after upward trends) and rebounds (the upward trends after downward trends), of which the intensities are described by dimensionless quantities, R(t) and R(b), respectively. We reveal that for both mature and emerging markets, the distribution of either retracements R(t) or rebounds R(b) shows two characteristic values, 0.335 and 0.665, both of which are robust over the long term. The methodology presented here provides a way to quantify the stock price reversals. Our findings strongly support the existence of the long-term predictability in stock price dynamics, and may offer a hint on how to predict the long-term movement of stock prices.

Some statistical investigations on the nature and dynamics of electricity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bottazzi, G.; Sapio, S.; Secchi, A.

2005-09-01

This work analyzes the log-returns of daily electricity prices from the NordPool day-ahead market. We study both the unconditional growth rates distribution and the distribution of residual shocks obtained with a non-parametric filtering procedure based on the Cholesky factor algorithm. We show that, even if the Subbotin family of distributions is able to describe the empirical observations in both cases, the Subbotin fit obtained for the unconditional growth rates and for the residual shocks reveal significant differences. Indeed, the sequence of log-returns can be described as the outcome of an aggregation of Laplace-distributed shocks with time-dependent volatility. We find that the standard deviation of shocks scales as a power law of the initial price level, with scaling exponent around -1. Moreover, the analysis of the empirical density of shocks, conditional on the price level, shows a strong relationship of the Subbotin fit with the latter. We conclude that the unconditional growth rates distribution is the superposition of shocks distributions characterized by decreasing volatility and fat-tailedness with respect to the price level.

Evaluation of the Impact of Wind Generation on the Electricity Market Prices and on the Profitability of New Wind Investments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, A. J.; Saraiva, J. T.

2012-10-01

This paper describes a Dynamic Model of the electricity sector that can be used to simulate the evolution of some key variables on the long term, namely the evolution of the electricity price, of the demand and of the capacity factors of the technologies in the generation mix. This model can be used in different ways and by several agents, for instance to estimate the impact on the electricity price of the increasing presence of renewable power stations, namely using wind power and PV systems. In several countries these stations are paid feed-in tariffs with a fixed price but in some cases this scheme is under discussion and there are opinions that payments determined by the market price are more adequate and would bring fewer costs to final consumers. Such a change has to be carefully evaluated given that the presence of renewable stations bidding at an infra marginal price will affect the price itself. The model described in this paper can be used in a profitable way both by governmental agencies when preparing or studying alternative remuneration schemes to renewable stations or by promoters themselves to get more insight to the profitability of their investments, namely if the fixed feed-in tariffs in force in several countries are changed.

The past, present, and future of the U.S. electric power sector: Examining regulatory changes using multivariate time series approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binder, Kyle Edwin

The U.S. energy sector has undergone continuous change in the regulatory, technological, and market environments. These developments show no signs of slowing. Accordingly, it is imperative that energy market regulators and participants develop a strong comprehension of market dynamics and the potential implications of their actions. This dissertation contributes to a better understanding of the past, present, and future of U.S. energy market dynamics and interactions with policy. Advancements in multivariate time series analysis are employed in three related studies of the electric power sector. Overall, results suggest that regulatory changes have had and will continue to have important implications for the electric power sector. The sector, however, has exhibited adaptability to past regulatory changes and is projected to remain resilient in the future. Tests for constancy of the long run parameters in a vector error correction model are applied to determine whether relationships among coal inventories in the electric power sector, input prices, output prices, and opportunity costs have remained constant over the past 38 years. Two periods of instability are found, the first following railroad deregulation in the U.S. and the second corresponding to a number of major regulatory changes in the electric power and natural gas sectors. Relationships among Renewable Energy Credit prices, electricity prices, and natural gas prices are estimated using a vector error correction model. Results suggest that Renewable Energy Credit prices do not completely behave as previously theorized in the literature. Potential reasons for the divergence between theory and empirical evidence are the relative immaturity of current markets and continuous institutional intervention. Potential impacts of future CO2 emissions reductions under the Clean Power Plan on economic and energy sector activity are estimated. Conditional forecasts based on an outlined path for CO2 emissions are developed from a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model for a large dataset. Unconditional and conditional forecasts are compared for U.S. industrial production, real personal income, and estimated factors. Results suggest that economic growth will be slower under the Clean Power Plan than it would otherwise; however, CO2 emissions reductions and economic growth can be achieved simultaneously.

Markov switching of the electricity supply curve and power prices dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mari, Carlo; Cananà, Lucianna

2012-02-01

Regime-switching models seem to well capture the main features of power prices behavior in deregulated markets. In a recent paper, we have proposed an equilibrium methodology to derive electricity prices dynamics from the interplay between supply and demand in a stochastic environment. In particular, assuming that the supply function is described by a power law where the exponent is a two-state strictly positive Markov process, we derived a regime switching dynamics of power prices in which regime switches are induced by transitions between Markov states. In this paper, we provide a dynamical model to describe the random behavior of power prices where the only non-Brownian component of the motion is endogenously introduced by Markov transitions in the exponent of the electricity supply curve. In this context, the stochastic process driving the switching mechanism becomes observable, and we will show that the non-Brownian component of the dynamics induced by transitions from Markov states is responsible for jumps and spikes of very high magnitude. The empirical analysis performed on three Australian markets confirms that the proposed approach seems quite flexible and capable of incorporating the main features of power prices time-series, thus reproducing the first four moments of log-returns empirical distributions in a satisfactory way.

Managed lane operations--adjusted time of day pricing vs. near-real time dynamic pricing : volume I, dynamic pricing and operations of managed lanes.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-02-12

In 2008, the Florida Department of Transportation began implementing the 95 Express, a segment of I-95 in Miami with high occupancy toll (HOT) lanes. Some vehicles use HOT lanes free, but most vehicles pay a toll based on real-time traffic conditions...

Pricing the Services in Dynamic Environment: Agent Pricing Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žagar, Drago; Rupčić, Slavko; Rimac-Drlje, Snježana

New Internet applications and services as well as new user demands open many new issues concerning dynamic management of quality of service and price for received service, respectively. The main goals of Internet service providers are to maximize profit and maintain a negotiated quality of service. From the users' perspective the main goal is to maximize ratio of received QoS and costs of service. However, achieving these objectives could become very complex if we know that Internet service users might during the session become highly dynamic and proactive. This connotes changes in user profile or network provider/s profile caused by high level of user mobility or variable level of user demands. This paper proposes a new agent based pricing architecture for serving the highly dynamic customers in context of dynamic user/network environment. The proposed architecture comprises main aspects and basic parameters that will enable objective and transparent assessment of the costs for the service those Internet users receive while dynamically change QoS demands and cost profile.

Dynamic Pricing in Electronic Commerce Using Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghose, Tapu Kumar; Tran, Thomas T.

In this paper, we propose an approach where feed-forward neural network is used for dynamically calculating a competitive price of a product in order to maximize sellers’ revenue. In the approach we considered that along with product price other attributes such as product quality, delivery time, after sales service and seller’s reputation contribute in consumers purchase decision. We showed that once the sellers, by using their limited prior knowledge, set an initial price of a product our model adjusts the price automatically with the help of neural network so that sellers’ revenue is maximized.

Effects of fundamentals acquisition and strategy switch on stock price dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Songtao; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei

2018-02-01

An agent-based artificial stock market is developed to simulate trading behavior of investors. In the market, acquisition and employment of information about fundamentals and strategy switch are investigated to explain stock price dynamics. Investors could obtain the information from both market and neighbors resided on their social networks. Depending on information status and performances of different strategies, an informed investor may switch to the strategy of fundamentalist. This in turn affects the information acquisition process, since fundamentalists are more inclined to search and spread the information than chartists. Further investigation into price dynamics generated from three typical networks, i.e. regular lattice, small-world network and random graph, are conducted after general relation between network structures and price dynamics is revealed. In each network, integrated effects of different combinations of information efficiency and switch intensity are investigated. Results have shown that, along with increasing switch intensity, market and social information efficiency play different roles in the formation of price distortion, standard deviation and kurtosis of returns.

Pricing for a basket of LCDS under fuzzy environments.

PubMed

Wu, Liang; Liu, Jie-Fang; Wang, Jun-Tao; Zhuang, Ya-Ming

2016-01-01

This paper looks at both the prepayment risks of housing mortgage loan credit default swaps (LCDS) as well as the fuzziness and hesitation of investors as regards prepayments by borrowers. It further discusses the first default pricing of a basket of LCDS in a fuzzy environment by using stochastic analysis and triangular intuition-based fuzzy set theory. Through the 'fuzzification' of the sensitivity coefficient in the prepayment intensity, this paper describes the dynamic features of mortgage housing values using the One-factor copula function and concludes with a formula for 'fuzzy' pricing the first default of a basket of LCDS. Using analog simulation to analyze the sensitivity of hesitation, we derive a model that considers what the LCDS fair premium is in a fuzzy environment, including a pure random environment. In addition, the model also shows that a suitable pricing range will give investors more flexible choices and make the predictions of the model closer to real market values.

Modelling energy costs for different operational strategies of a large water resource recovery facility.

PubMed

Póvoa, P; Oehmen, A; Inocêncio, P; Matos, J S; Frazão, A

2017-05-01

The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of applying dynamic modelling and real energy prices on a full scale water resource recovery facility (WRRF) for the evaluation of control strategies in terms of energy costs with aeration. The Activated Sludge Model No. 1 (ASM1) was coupled with real energy pricing and a power consumption model and applied as a dynamic simulation case study. The model calibration is based on the STOWA protocol. The case study investigates the importance of providing real energy pricing comparing (i) real energy pricing, (ii) weighted arithmetic mean energy pricing and (iii) arithmetic mean energy pricing. The operational strategies evaluated were (i) old versus new air diffusers, (ii) different DO set-points and (iii) implementation of a carbon removal controller based on nitrate sensor readings. The application in a full scale WRRF of the ASM1 model coupled with real energy costs was successful. Dynamic modelling with real energy pricing instead of constant energy pricing enables the wastewater utility to optimize energy consumption according to the real energy price structure. Specific energy cost allows the identification of time periods with potential for linking WRRF with the electric grid to optimize the treatment costs, satisfying operational goals.

Value-based differential pricing: efficient prices for drugs in a global context.

PubMed

Danzon, Patricia; Towse, Adrian; Mestre-Ferrandiz, Jorge

2015-03-01

This paper analyzes pharmaceutical pricing between and within countries to achieve second-best static and dynamic efficiency. We distinguish countries with and without universal insurance, because insurance undermines patients' price sensitivity, potentially leading to prices above second-best efficient levels. In countries with universal insurance, if each payer unilaterally sets an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) threshold based on its citizens' willingness-to-pay for health; manufacturers price to that ICER threshold; and payers limit reimbursement to patients for whom a drug is cost-effective at that price and ICER, then the resulting price levels and use within each country and price differentials across countries are roughly consistent with second-best static and dynamic efficiency. These value-based prices are expected to differ cross-nationally with per capita income and be broadly consistent with Ramsey optimal prices. Countries without comprehensive insurance avoid its distorting effects on prices but also lack financial protection and affordability for the poor. Improving pricing efficiency in these self-pay countries includes improving regulation and consumer information about product quality and enabling firms to price discriminate within and between countries. © 2013 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Speculative behavior and asset price dynamics.

PubMed

Westerhoff, Frank

2003-07-01

This paper deals with speculative trading. Guided by empirical observations, a nonlinear deterministic asset pricing model is developed in which traders repeatedly choose between technical and fundamental analysis to determine their orders. The interaction between the trading rules produces complex dynamics. The model endogenously replicates the stylized facts of excess volatility, high trading volumes, shifts in the level of asset prices, and volatility clustering.

North American oriented strand board markets, arbitrage activity, and market price dynamics: A smooth transition approach

Treesearch

Barry Goodwin; Matthew Holt; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2011-01-01

Price dynamics for North American oriented strand board markets are examined. The role of transactions costs are explored vis-à-vis the law of one price. Nonlinearities induced by unobservable transactions costs are modeled by estimating time-varying smooth transition autoregressions (TV-STARs). Results indicate that nonlinearity and structural change are important...

The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2017-05-01

Identifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply-demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends. Even the most recent price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11 can be explained by additionally accounting for documented changes in countries’ trade policies and storage strategies, without the need for external drivers such as oil prices or speculation across different commodity or stock markets. This underlines the critical sensitivity of global prices to fluctuations in production. The consistent inclusion of storage into a dynamic supply-demand model closes an important gap when it comes to exploring potential responses to future crop yield variability under climate and land-use change.

Distributed Energy Resources and Dynamic Microgrid: An Integrated Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Duo Rick

The overall goal of this thesis is to improve understanding in terms of the benefit of DERs to both utility and to electricity end-users when integrated in power distribution system. To achieve this goal, a series of two studies was conducted to assess the value of DERs when integrated with new power paradigms. First, the arbitrage value of DERs was examined in markets with time-variant electricity pricing rates (e.g., time of use, real time pricing) under a smart grid distribution paradigm. This study uses a stochastic optimization model to estimate the potential profit from electricity price arbitrage over a five-year period. The optimization process involves two types of PHEVs (PHEV-10, and PHEV-40) under three scenarios with different assumptions on technology performance, electricity market and PHEV owner types. The simulation results indicate that expected arbitrage profit is not a viable option to engage PHEVs in dispatching and in providing ancillary services without more favorable policy and PHEV battery technologies. Subsidy or change in electricity tariff or both are needed. Second, it examined the concept of dynamic microgrid as a measure to improve distribution resilience, and estimates the prices of this emerging service. An economic load dispatch (ELD) model is developed to estimate the market-clearing price in a hypothetical community with single bid auction electricity market. The results show that the electricity market clearing price on the dynamic microgrid is predominantly decided by power output and cost of electricity of each type of DGs. At circumstances where CHP is the only source, the electricity market clearing price in the island is even cheaper than the on-grid electricity price at normal times. Integration of PHEVs in the dynamic microgrid will increase electricity market clearing prices. It demonstrates that dynamic microgrid is an economically viable alternative to enhance grid resilience.

Fluctuation-driven price dynamics and investment strategies

PubMed Central

Li, Yan; Zheng, Bo; Chen, Ting-Ting; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

2017-01-01

Investigation of the driven mechanism of the price dynamics in complex financial systems is important and challenging. In this paper, we propose an investment strategy to study how dynamic fluctuations drive the price movements. The strategy is successfully applied to different stock markets in the world, and the result indicates that the driving effect of the dynamic fluctuations is rather robust. We investigate how the strategy performance is influenced by the market states and optimize the strategy performance by introducing two parameters. The strategy is also compared with several typical technical trading rules. Our findings not only provide an investment strategy which extends investors’ profits, but also offer a useful method to look into the dynamic properties of complex financial systems. PMID:29240783

Fluctuation-driven price dynamics and investment strategies.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Zheng, Bo; Chen, Ting-Ting; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

2017-01-01

Investigation of the driven mechanism of the price dynamics in complex financial systems is important and challenging. In this paper, we propose an investment strategy to study how dynamic fluctuations drive the price movements. The strategy is successfully applied to different stock markets in the world, and the result indicates that the driving effect of the dynamic fluctuations is rather robust. We investigate how the strategy performance is influenced by the market states and optimize the strategy performance by introducing two parameters. The strategy is also compared with several typical technical trading rules. Our findings not only provide an investment strategy which extends investors' profits, but also offer a useful method to look into the dynamic properties of complex financial systems.

D-brane solutions under market panic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pincak, Richard

The relativistic quantum mechanic approach is used to develop stock market dynamics. The relativistic is conceptional here as the meaning of big external volatility or volatility shock on a financial market. We used a differential geometry approach with the parallel transport of prices to obtain a direct shift of the stock price movement. The prices are represented here as electrons with different spin orientation. Up and down orientations of the spin particle are likened here to an increase or a decrease of stock prices. The parallel transport of stock prices is enriched by Riemann curvature, which describes some arbitrage opportunities in the market. To solve the stock-price dynamics, we used the Dirac equation for bispinors on the spherical brane-world. We found out that when a spherical brane is abbreviated to the disk on the equator, we converge to the ideal behavior of financial market where Black-Scholes as well as semi-classical equations are sufficient. Full spherical brane-world scenarios can describe non-equilibrium market behavior where all arbitrage opportunities as well as transaction costs are taken into account. Real application of the model to the option pricing was done. The model developed in this paper brings quantitative different results of option pricing dynamics in the case of nonzero Riemann curvature.

Learning monopolies with delayed feedback on price expectations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsumoto, Akio; Szidarovszky, Ferenc

2015-11-01

We call the intercept of the price function with the vertical axis the maximum price and the slope of the price function the marginal price. In this paper it is assumed that a monopolistic firm has full information about the marginal price and its own cost function but is uncertain on the maximum price. However, by repeated interaction with the market, the obtained price observations give a basis for an adaptive learning process of the maximum price. It is also assumed that the price observations have fixed delays, so the learning process can be described by a delayed differential equation. In the cases of one or two delays, the asymptotic behavior of the resulting dynamic process is examined, stability conditions are derived. Three main results are demonstrated in the two delay learning processes. First, it is possible to stabilize the equilibrium which is unstable in the one delay model. Second, complex dynamics involving chaos, which is impossible in the one delay model, can emerge. Third, alternations of stability and instability (i.e., stability switches) occur repeatedly.

Equilibrium pricing in an order book environment: Case study for a spin model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meudt, Frederik; Schmitt, Thilo A.; Schäfer, Rudi; Guhr, Thomas

2016-07-01

When modeling stock market dynamics, the price formation is often based on an equilibrium mechanism. In real stock exchanges, however, the price formation is governed by the order book. It is thus interesting to check if the resulting stylized facts of a model with equilibrium pricing change, remain the same or, more generally, are compatible with the order book environment. We tackle this issue in the framework of a case study by embedding the Bornholdt-Kaizoji-Fujiwara spin model into the order book dynamics. To this end, we use a recently developed agent based model that realistically incorporates the order book. We find realistic stylized facts. We conclude for the studied case that equilibrium pricing is not needed and that the corresponding assumption of a ;fundamental; price may be abandoned.

A multilayer approach for price dynamics in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondo, Alessio Emanuele; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea

2017-02-01

We introduce a new Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) model for simulating price evolution in an artificial financial market, based on a multilayer network of traders. The model also implements, in a quite realistic way with respect to previous studies, the order book dynamics, by considering two assets with variable fundamental prices. Fat tails in the probability distributions of normalized returns are observed, together with other features of real financial markets.

Price impact on urban residential water demand: A dynamic panel data approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ArbuéS, Fernando; BarberáN, Ramón; Villanúa, Inmaculada

2004-11-01

In this paper, we formulate and estimate a model of residential water demand with the aim of evaluating the potential of pricing policies as a mechanism for managing residential water. The proposed econometric model offers a new perspective on urban water demand analysis by combining microlevel data with a dynamic panel data estimation procedure. The empirical application suggests that residential users are more responsive to a lagged average price specification. Another result of the estimated model is that price is a moderately effective tool in reducing residential water demand within the present range of prices, with the estimated values for income elasticity and "elasticity of consumption with respect to family size" reinforcing this conclusion.

Pushing Economies (and Students) outside the Factor Price Equalization Zone

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oslington, Paul; Towers, Isaac

2009-01-01

Despite overwhelming empirical evidence of the failure of factor price equalization, most teaching of international trade theory (even at the graduate level) assumes that economies are incompletely specialized and that factor price equalization holds. The behavior of trading economies in the absence of factor price equalization is not well…

7 CFR 1437.11 - Average market price and payment factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Average market price and payment factors. 1437.11... ASSISTANCE PROGRAM General Provisions § 1437.11 Average market price and payment factors. (a) An average... average market price by the applicable payment factor (i.e., harvested, unharvested, or prevented planting...

Collective behavior of stock price movements in an emerging market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Raj Kumar; Sinha, Sitabhra

2007-10-01

To investigate the universality of the structure of interactions in different markets, we analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of stock price fluctuations in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. We find that this emerging market exhibits strong correlations in the movement of stock prices compared to developed markets, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This is shown to be due to the dominant influence of a common market mode on the stock prices. By comparison, interactions between related stocks, e.g., those belonging to the same business sector, are much weaker. This lack of distinct sector identity in emerging markets is explicitly shown by reconstructing the network of mutually interacting stocks. Spectral analysis of C for NSE reveals that, the few largest eigenvalues deviate from the bulk of the spectrum predicted by random matrix theory, but they are far fewer in number compared to, e.g., NYSE. We show this to be due to the relative weakness of intrasector interactions between stocks, compared to the market mode, by modeling stock price dynamics with a two-factor model. Our results suggest that the emergence of an internal structure comprising multiple groups of strongly coupled components is a signature of market development.

Nonlinear price impact from linear models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patzelt, Felix; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

2017-12-01

The impact of trades on asset prices is a crucial aspect of market dynamics for academics, regulators, and practitioners alike. Recently, universal and highly nonlinear master curves were observed for price impacts aggregated on all intra-day scales (Patzelt and Bouchaud 2017 arXiv:1706.04163). Here we investigate how well these curves, their scaling, and the underlying return dynamics are captured by linear ‘propagator’ models. We find that the classification of trades as price-changing versus non-price-changing can explain the price impact nonlinearities and short-term return dynamics to a very high degree. The explanatory power provided by the change indicator in addition to the order sign history increases with increasing tick size. To obtain these results, several long-standing technical issues for model calibration and testing are addressed. We present new spectral estimators for two- and three-point cross-correlations, removing the need for previously used approximations. We also show when calibration is unbiased and how to accurately reveal previously overlooked biases. Therefore, our results contribute significantly to understanding both recent empirical results and the properties of a popular class of impact models.

The Interconnected Challenges for Food Security from a Food Regimes Perspective: Energy, Climate and Malconsumption

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sage, Colin

2013-01-01

Recent experience of food price volatility in global markets encourages closer examination of the dynamics underlying the global food system and reveals a range of contingent factors. Meanwhile a common thread of many recent expert reports has emphasised the need to intensify agricultural production to double food output by 2050. Drawing upon a…

On dynamic prices: a clash of beliefs?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanser, Philip Q

2010-07-15

While insightful essays have been written regarding the moral appropriateness of dynamic pricing, they have an implicit underlying framework for determining justness and fairness that may not necessarily accord completely with the view promulgated in regard to utility rate setting generally. (author)

Determining factors affecting tourism demand for Malaysia using ARDL modeling: A case of Europe countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borhan, Nurbaizura; Arsad, Zainudin

2016-10-01

Tourism industry is the second largest foreign exchange earner after manufacturing in Malaysia. With regards to the importance of tourism industry in Malaysia, any factors that influence tourism demand should be considered cautiously by the government and tourism authorities in order to attract more international tourists in the near future. The purpose of this study is to investigate the dynamic long-run and short-run relationship between the number of international tourist arrivals from six European countries and four selected economic variables. The economic variables used in this study are exchange rate, gross domestic product, relative price and substitute relative price. This study also examines the impact of the European Sovereign crisis on the number of arrivals from the selected European countries to Malaysia. The data covers the period from quarter 1 (Q1) of 1999 to quarter 3 (Q3) of 2014 and employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). The results of unit root test show a mixture of integrated at level and order one, I(0) and I(1). The results show that there exist long-run cointegration between the number of international tourist arrivals and exchange rate, level of income, tourism price and substitute tourism price for all countries. Generally, the results show that level of income is in line with the economic theory and Thailand is a competing destination for the tourism industry in Malaysia. Surprisingly, relative price is found to have positive impact on the number of arrivals to Malaysia and this suggests that an increase in the price level in Malaysia is unexpectedly increase the number of international tourist arrivals to Malaysia. Therefore the Malaysian government and tourism authorities should continue the efforts to withstand the growth of the tourism industry.

Adam Smith's invisible hand is unstable: physics and dynamics reasoning applied to economic theorizing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.

2002-11-01

Neo-classical economic theory is based on the postulated, nonempiric notion of utility. Neo-classical economists assume that prices, dynamics, and market equilibria are supposed to be derived from utility. The results are supposed to represent mathematically the stabilizing action of Adam Smith's invisible hand. In deterministic excess demand dynamics, however, a utility function generally does not exist mathematically due to nonintegrability. Price as a function of demand does not exist and all equilibria are unstable. Qualitatively, and empirically, the neo-classical prediction of price as a function of demand describes neither consumer nor trader demand. We also discuss five inconsistent definitions of equilibrium used in economics and finance, only one of which is correct, and then explain the fallacy in the economists’ notion of ‘temporary price equilibria’.

Escalation: How Much is Enough?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butts, Glenn

2007-01-01

Determining the escalation percentage to an estimate is often the subject of fierce debate. Cost increases are determined by dynamic relati onships between many factors, including acts of nature, interest rate s, oil prices, global commodity markets, wars, wage rates, and the ov erall health of the economy, as well as supply and demand for the required goods or services. How much escalation is enough? Are the recen t price increases temporary aberrations, or will they continue to pla gue us? This paper examines historical escalation rates, as well as i ndications of trends. Various analysis methods -- Monte Carlo simulations, neural networks, trend impact analysis, and the Delphi method -- are examined in an attempt to determine future trends.

Optimal pricing and lot-sizing for perishable inventory with price and time dependent ramp-type demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panda, S.; Saha, S.; Basu, M.

2013-01-01

Product perishability is an important aspect of inventory control. To minimise the effect of deterioration, retailers in supermarkets, departmental store managers, etc. always want higher inventory depletion rate. In this article, we propose a dynamic pre- and post-deterioration cumulative discount policy to enhance inventory depletion rate resulting low volume of deterioration cost, holding cost and hence higher profit. It is assumed that demand is a price and time dependent ramp-type function and the product starts to deteriorate after certain amount of time. Unlike the conventional inventory models with pricing strategies, which are restricted to a fixed number of price changes and to a fixed cycle length, we allow the number of price changes before as well as after the start of deterioration and the replenishment cycle length to be the decision variables. Before start of deterioration, discounts on unit selling price are provided cumulatively in successive pricing cycles. After the start of deterioration, discounts on reduced unit selling price are also provided in a cumulative way. A mathematical model is developed and the existence of the optimal solution is verified. A numerical example is presented, which indicates that under the cumulative effect of price discounting, dynamic pricing policy outperforms static pricing strategy. Sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out.

Symbolic dynamics techniques for complex systems: Application to share price dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Dan; Beck, Christian

2017-05-01

The symbolic dynamics technique is well known for low-dimensional dynamical systems and chaotic maps, and lies at the roots of the thermodynamic formalism of dynamical systems. Here we show that this technique can also be successfully applied to time series generated by complex systems of much higher dimensionality. Our main example is the investigation of share price returns in a coarse-grained way. A nontrivial spectrum of Rényi entropies is found. We study how the spectrum depends on the time scale of returns, the sector of stocks considered, as well as the number of symbols used for the symbolic description. Overall our analysis confirms that in the symbol space transition probabilities of observed share price returns depend on the entire history of previous symbols, thus emphasizing the need for a modelling based on non-Markovian stochastic processes. Our method allows for quantitative comparisons of entirely different complex systems, for example the statistics of symbol sequences generated by share price returns using 4 symbols can be compared with that of genomic sequences.

Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-02

Repeated Game with Incomplete Information, IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing. 20-MAR-16, Shanghai, China...in a game theoretic framework for the application of multi-seller dynamic pricing with unknown demand models. We formulated the problem as an...infinitely repeated game with incomplete information and developed a dynamic pricing strategy referred to as Competitive and Cooperative Demand Learning

Mitigating Distributed Denial of Service Attacks with Dynamic Resource Pricing

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-10-01

should be nearly comparable to a system that does not use the payment mechanisms. There is prior work on how pricing can be used to influence consumer ... behavior , how to integrate pricing mechanisms with OS and network resource management mechanisms. In this paper, we instead focus on how pricing

A dynamic feedback-control toll pricing methodology : a case study on Interstate 95 managed lanes.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

Recently, congestion pricing emerged as a cost-effective and efficient strategy to mitigate the congestion problem on freeways. This study develops a feedback-control based dynamic toll approach to formulate and solve for optimal tolls. The study com...

Nonlinear stochastic exclusion financial dynamics modeling and time-dependent intrinsic detrended cross-correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Wang, Jun

2017-09-01

In attempt to reproduce price dynamics of financial markets, a stochastic agent-based financial price model is proposed and investigated by stochastic exclusion process. The exclusion process, one of interacting particle systems, is usually thought of as modeling particle motion (with the conserved number of particles) in a continuous time Markov process. In this work, the process is utilized to imitate the trading interactions among the investing agents, in order to explain some stylized facts found in financial time series dynamics. To better understand the correlation behaviors of the proposed model, a new time-dependent intrinsic detrended cross-correlation (TDI-DCC) is introduced and performed, also, the autocorrelation analyses are applied in the empirical research. Furthermore, to verify the rationality of the financial price model, the actual return series are also considered to be comparatively studied with the simulation ones. The comparison results of return behaviors reveal that this financial price dynamics model can reproduce some correlation features of actual stock markets.

Modeling and complexity of stochastic interacting Lévy type financial price dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yiduan; Zheng, Shenzhou; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Jun; Wang, Guochao

2018-06-01

In attempt to reproduce and investigate nonlinear dynamics of security markets, a novel nonlinear random interacting price dynamics, which is considered as a Lévy type process, is developed and investigated by the combination of lattice oriented percolation and Potts dynamics, which concerns with the instinctive random fluctuation and the fluctuation caused by the spread of the investors' trading attitudes, respectively. To better understand the fluctuation complexity properties of the proposed model, the complexity analyses of random logarithmic price return and corresponding volatility series are preformed, including power-law distribution, Lempel-Ziv complexity and fractional sample entropy. In order to verify the rationality of the proposed model, the corresponding studies of actual security market datasets are also implemented for comparison. The empirical results reveal that this financial price model can reproduce some important complexity features of actual security markets to some extent. The complexity of returns decreases with the increase of parameters γ1 and β respectively, furthermore, the volatility series exhibit lower complexity than the return series

Nonlinear stochastic interacting dynamics and complexity of financial gasket fractal-like lattice percolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Wang, Jun

2018-05-01

A novel nonlinear stochastic interacting price dynamics is proposed and investigated by the bond percolation on Sierpinski gasket fractal-like lattice, aim to make a new approach to reproduce and study the complexity dynamics of real security markets. Fractal-like lattices correspond to finite graphs with vertices and edges, which are similar to fractals, and Sierpinski gasket is a well-known example of fractals. Fractional ordinal array entropy and fractional ordinal array complexity are introduced to analyze the complexity behaviors of financial signals. To deeper comprehend the fluctuation characteristics of the stochastic price evolution, the complexity analysis of random logarithmic returns and volatility are preformed, including power-law distribution, fractional sample entropy and fractional ordinal array complexity. For further verifying the rationality and validity of the developed stochastic price evolution, the actual security market dataset are also studied with the same statistical methods for comparison. The empirical results show that this stochastic price dynamics can reconstruct complexity behaviors of the actual security markets to some extent.

Dynamic, stochastic models for congestion pricing and congestion securities.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-12-01

This research considers congestion pricing under demand uncertainty. In particular, a robust optimization (RO) approach is applied to optimal congestion pricing problems under user equilibrium. A mathematical model is developed and an analysis perfor...

What factors affect the prices of low-priced U.S. solar PV systems?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nemet, Gregory F.; O'Shaughnessy, Eric; Wiser, Ryan

The price of solar PV systems has declined rapidly, yet there are some much lower-priced systems than others. This study explores the factors that determine prices in these low-priced (LP) systems. Using a data set of 42,611 residential-scale PV systems installed in the U.S. in 2013, we use quantile regressions to estimate the importance of factors affecting the installed prices for LP systems (those at the 10th percentile) in comparison to median-priced systems. We find that the value of solar to consumers-a variable that accounts for subsidies, electric rates, and PV generation levels-is associated with lower prices for LP systemsmore » but higher prices for median priced systems. Conversely, systems installed in new home construction are associated with lower prices at the median but higher prices for LP. Other variables have larger price-reducing effects on LP than on median priced systems: systems installed in Arizona and Florida, as well as commercial and thin film systems. In contrast, the following have a smaller effect on prices for LP systems than median priced systems: tracking systems, self-installations, systems installed in Massachusetts, the system size, and installer experience. Furthermore, these results highlight the complex factors at play that lead to LP systems and shed light into how such LP systems can come about.« less

What factors affect the prices of low-priced U.S. solar PV systems?

DOE PAGES

Nemet, Gregory F.; O'Shaughnessy, Eric; Wiser, Ryan; ...

2017-08-09

The price of solar PV systems has declined rapidly, yet there are some much lower-priced systems than others. This study explores the factors that determine prices in these low-priced (LP) systems. Using a data set of 42,611 residential-scale PV systems installed in the U.S. in 2013, we use quantile regressions to estimate the importance of factors affecting the installed prices for LP systems (those at the 10th percentile) in comparison to median-priced systems. We find that the value of solar to consumers-a variable that accounts for subsidies, electric rates, and PV generation levels-is associated with lower prices for LP systemsmore » but higher prices for median priced systems. Conversely, systems installed in new home construction are associated with lower prices at the median but higher prices for LP. Other variables have larger price-reducing effects on LP than on median priced systems: systems installed in Arizona and Florida, as well as commercial and thin film systems. In contrast, the following have a smaller effect on prices for LP systems than median priced systems: tracking systems, self-installations, systems installed in Massachusetts, the system size, and installer experience. Furthermore, these results highlight the complex factors at play that lead to LP systems and shed light into how such LP systems can come about.« less

Oil prices and long-run risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ready, Robert Clayton

I show that relative levels of aggregate consumption and personal oil consumption provide an excellent proxy for oil prices, and that high oil prices predict low future aggregate consumption growth. Motivated by these facts, I add an oil consumption good to the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron [2004] to study the asset pricing implications of observed changes in the dynamic interaction of consumption and oil prices. Empirically I observe that, compared to the first half of my 1987--2010 sample, oil consumption growth in the last 10 years is unresponsive to levels of oil prices, creating an decrease in the mean-reversion of oil prices, and an increase in the persistence of oil price shocks. The model implies that the change in the dynamics of oil consumption generates increased systematic risk from oil price shocks due to their increased persistence. However, persistent oil prices also act as a counterweight for shocks to expected consumption growth, with high expected growth creating high expectations of future oil prices which in turn slow down growth. The combined effect is to reduce overall consumption risk and lower the equity premium. The model also predicts that these changes affect the riskiness of of oil futures contracts, and combine to create a hump shaped term structure of oil futures, consistent with recent data.

Greed, fear and stock market dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerhoff, Frank H.

2004-11-01

We present a behavioral stock market model in which traders are driven by greed and fear. In general, the agents optimistically believe in rising markets and thus buy stocks. But if stock prices change too abruptly, they panic and sell stocks. Our model mimics some stylized facts of stock market dynamics: (1) stock prices increase over time, (2) stock markets sometimes crash, (3) stock prices show little pair correlation between successive daily changes, and (4) periods of low volatility alternate with periods of high volatility. A strong feature of the model is that stock prices completely evolve according to a deterministic low-dimensional nonlinear law of motion.

MORAL HAZARD IN HEALTH INSURANCE: DO DYNAMIC INCENTIVES MATTER?

PubMed Central

Aron-Dine, Aviva; Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Cullen, Mark

2016-01-01

Using data from employer-provided health insurance and Medicare Part D, we investigate whether healthcare utilization responds to the dynamic incentives created by the nonlinear nature of health insurance contracts. We exploit the fact that, because annual coverage usually resets every January, individuals who join a plan later in the year face the same initial (“spot”) price of healthcare but a higher expected end-of-year (“future”) price. We find a statistically significant response of initial utilization to the future price, rejecting the null that individuals respond only to the spot price. We discuss implications for analysis of moral hazard in health insurance. PMID:26769985

Long-range correlations and asymmetry in the Bitcoin market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Rodriguez, E.; Ibarra-Valdez, C.

2018-02-01

This work studies long-range correlations and informational efficiency of the Bitcoin market for the period from June 30, 2013 to June 3rd, 2017. To this end, the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) was implemented over sliding windows to estimate long-range correlations for price returns. It was found that the Bitcoin market exhibits periods of efficiency alternating with periods where the price dynamics are driven by anti-persistence. The pattern is replicated by prices samples at day, hour and second frequencies. The Bitcoin market also presents asymmetric correlations with respect to increasing and decreasing price trending, with the former trend linked to anti-persistence of returns dynamics.

Policy options for pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing: issues for low- and middle-income countries.

PubMed

Nguyen, Tuan Anh; Knight, Rosemary; Roughead, Elizabeth Ellen; Brooks, Geoffrey; Mant, Andrea

2015-03-01

Pharmaceutical expenditure is rising globally. Most high-income countries have exercised pricing or purchasing strategies to address this pressure. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), however, usually have less regulated pharmaceutical markets and often lack feasible pricing or purchasing strategies, notwithstanding their wish to effectively manage medicine budgets. In high-income countries, most medicines payments are made by the state or health insurance institutions. In LMICs, most pharmaceutical expenditure is out-of-pocket which creates a different dynamic for policy enforcement. The paucity of rigorous studies on the effectiveness of pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing strategies makes it especially difficult for policy makers in LMICs to decide on a course of action. This article reviews published articles on pharmaceutical pricing and purchasing policies. Many policy options for medicine pricing and purchasing have been found to work but they also have attendant risks. No one option is decisively preferred; rather a mix of options may be required based on country-specific context. Empirical studies in LMICs are lacking. However, risks from any one policy option can reasonably be argued to be greater in LMICs which often lack strong legal systems, purchasing and state institutions to underpin the healthcare system. Key factors are identified to assist LMICs improve their medicine pricing and purchasing systems. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.

What Factors Affect the Prices of Low-Priced U.S. Solar PV Systems?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nemet, Gregory F.; O'Shaughnessy, Eric; Wiser, Ryan

The price of solar PV systems has declined rapidly, yet there are some much lower-priced systems than others. This study explores the factors leading some systems to be so much lower priced than others. Using a data set of 42,611 residential-scale PV systems installed in the U.S. in 2013, we use quantile regressions to estimate the importance of factors affecting the installed prices for low-priced (LP) systems (those at the 10th percentile) in comparison to median-priced systems. We find that the value of solar to consumers–a variable that accounts for subsidies, electric rates, and PV generation levels–is associated with lowermore » prices for LP systems but higher prices for median priced systems. Conversely, systems installed in new home construction are associated with lower prices at the median but higher prices for LP. Other variables have larger cost-reducing effects on LP than on median priced systems: systems installed in Arizona and Florida, as well as commercial and thin film systems. In contrast, the following have a smaller effect on prices for LP systems than median priced systems: tracking systems, self-installations, systems installed in Massachusetts, the system size, and installer experience. These results highlight the complex factors at play that lead to LP systems and shed light into how such LP systems can come about.« less

Cryptocurrency price drivers: Wavelet coherence analysis revisited

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Cryptocurrencies have experienced recent surges in interest and price. It has been discovered that there are time intervals where cryptocurrency prices and certain online and social media factors appear related. In addition it has been noted that cryptocurrencies are prone to experience intervals of bubble-like price growth. The hypothesis investigated here is that relationships between online factors and price are dependent on market regime. In this paper, wavelet coherence is used to study co-movement between a cryptocurrency price and its related factors, for a number of examples. This is used alongside a well-known test for financial asset bubbles to explore whether relationships change dependent on regime. The primary finding of this work is that medium-term positive correlations between online factors and price strengthen significantly during bubble-like regimes of the price series; this explains why these relationships have previously been seen to appear and disappear over time. A secondary finding is that short-term relationships between the chosen factors and price appear to be caused by particular market events (such as hacks / security breaches), and are not consistent from one time interval to another in the effect of the factor upon the price. In addition, for the first time, wavelet coherence is used to explore the relationships between different cryptocurrencies. PMID:29668765

Cryptocurrency price drivers: Wavelet coherence analysis revisited.

PubMed

Phillips, Ross C; Gorse, Denise

2018-01-01

Cryptocurrencies have experienced recent surges in interest and price. It has been discovered that there are time intervals where cryptocurrency prices and certain online and social media factors appear related. In addition it has been noted that cryptocurrencies are prone to experience intervals of bubble-like price growth. The hypothesis investigated here is that relationships between online factors and price are dependent on market regime. In this paper, wavelet coherence is used to study co-movement between a cryptocurrency price and its related factors, for a number of examples. This is used alongside a well-known test for financial asset bubbles to explore whether relationships change dependent on regime. The primary finding of this work is that medium-term positive correlations between online factors and price strengthen significantly during bubble-like regimes of the price series; this explains why these relationships have previously been seen to appear and disappear over time. A secondary finding is that short-term relationships between the chosen factors and price appear to be caused by particular market events (such as hacks / security breaches), and are not consistent from one time interval to another in the effect of the factor upon the price. In addition, for the first time, wavelet coherence is used to explore the relationships between different cryptocurrencies.

Would environmental pollution affect home prices? An empirical study based on China's key cities.

PubMed

Hao, Yu; Zheng, Shaoqing

2017-11-01

With the development of China's economy, the problem of environmental pollution has become increasingly more serious, affecting the sustained and healthy development of Chinese cities and the willingness of residents to invest in fixed assets. In this paper, a panel data set of 70 of China's key cities from 2003 to 2014 is used to study the effect of environmental pollution on home prices in China's key cities. In addition to the static panel data regression model, this paper uses the generalized method of moments (GMM) to control for the potential endogeneity and introduce the dynamics. To ensure the robustness of the research results, this paper uses four typical pollutants: per capita volume of SO 2 emissions, industrial soot (dust) emissions, industrial wastewater discharge, and industrial chemical oxygen demand discharge. The analysis shows that environmental pollution does have a negative impact on home prices, and the magnitude of this effect is dependent on the level of economic development. When GDP per capita increases, the size of the negative impact on home prices tends to reduce. Industrial soot (dust) has the greatest impact, and the impact of industrial wastewater is relatively small. It is also found that some other social and economic factors, including greening, public transport, citizen income, fiscal situation, loans, FDI, and population density, have positive effects on home prices, but the effect of employment on home prices is relatively weak.

Timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

2000-01-01

Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20 percent of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the...

An integrated system model for evaluating the impact of the dynamic ICC toll policy on the regional network mobility.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-12-01

Road pricing has been advocated as an efficient travel demand management to alleviate congestion since the : seminal work by Pigou (1920) and Knight (1924) (see Lindsey, 2006, for recent reviews). More specifically, dynamic : toll pricing has receive...

Complex Nonlinear Dynamic System of Oligopolies Price Game with Heterogeneous Players Under Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Feng; Li, Yaguang

A nonlinear four oligopolies price game with heterogeneous players, that are boundedly rational and adaptive, is built using two different special demand costs. Based on the theory of complex discrete dynamical system, the stability and the existing equilibrium point are investigated. The complex dynamic behavior is presented via bifurcation diagrams, the Lyapunov exponents to show equilibrium state, bifurcation and chaos with the variation in parameters. As disturbance is ubiquitous in economic systems, this paper focuses on the analysis of delay feedback control method under noise circumstances. Stable dynamics is confirmed to depend mainly on the low price adjustment speed, and if all four players have limited opportunities to stabilize the market, the new adaptive player facing profits of scale are found to be higher than the incumbents of bounded rational.

Price dynamics in political prediction markets

PubMed Central

Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A.; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes

2009-01-01

Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election “winner-takes-all” markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442

Essays on price dynamics, discovery, and dynamic threshold effects among energy spot markets in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Haesun

2005-12-01

Given the role electricity and natural gas sectors play in the North American economy, an understanding of how markets for these commodities interact is important. This dissertation independently characterizes the price dynamics of major electricity and natural gas spot markets in North America by combining directed acyclic graphs with time series analyses. Furthermore, the dissertation explores a generalization of price difference bands associated with the law of one price. Interdependencies among 11 major electricity spot markets are examined in Chapter II using a vector autoregression model. Results suggest that the relationships between the markets vary by time. Western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. At longer time horizons these separations disappear. Palo Verde is the important spot market in the west for price discovery. Southwest Power Pool is the dominant market in Eastern Interconnected System for price discovery. Interdependencies among eight major natural gas spot markets are investigated using a vector error correction model and the Greedy Equivalence Search Algorithm in Chapter III. Findings suggest that the eight price series are tied together through six long-run cointegration relationships, supporting the argument that the natural gas market has developed into a single integrated market in North America since deregulation. Results indicate that price discovery tends to occur in the excess consuming regions and move to the excess producing regions. Across North America, the U.S. Midwest region, represented by the Chicago spot market, is the most important for price discovery. The Ellisburg-Leidy Hub in Pennsylvania and Malin Hub in Oregon are important for eastern and western markets. In Chapter IV, a threshold vector error correction model is applied to the natural gas markets to examine nonlinearities in adjustments to the law of one price. Results show that there are nonlinear adjustments to the law of one price in seven pair-wise markets. Four alternative cases for the law of one price are presented as a theoretical background. A methodology is developed for finding a threshold cointegration model that accounts for seasonality in the threshold levels. Results indicate that dynamic threshold effects vary depending on geographical location and whether the markets are excess producing or excess consuming markets.

Structural model for fluctuations in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anand, Kartik; Khedair, Jonathan; Kühn, Reimer

2018-05-01

In this paper we provide a comprehensive analysis of a structural model for the dynamics of prices of assets traded in a market which takes the form of an interacting generalization of the geometric Brownian motion model. It is formally equivalent to a model describing the stochastic dynamics of a system of analog neurons, which is expected to exhibit glassy properties and thus many metastable states in a large portion of its parameter space. We perform a generating functional analysis, introducing a slow driving of the dynamics to mimic the effect of slowly varying macroeconomic conditions. Distributions of asset returns over various time separations are evaluated analytically and are found to be fat-tailed in a manner broadly in line with empirical observations. Our model also allows us to identify collective, interaction-mediated properties of pricing distributions and it predicts pricing distributions which are significantly broader than their noninteracting counterparts, if interactions between prices in the model contain a ferromagnetic bias. Using simulations, we are able to substantiate one of the main hypotheses underlying the original modeling, viz., that the phenomenon of volatility clustering can be rationalized in terms of an interplay between the dynamics within metastable states and the dynamics of occasional transitions between them.

Spatial price dynamics: From complex network perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y. L.; Bi, J. T.; Sun, H. J.

2008-10-01

The spatial price problem means that if the supply price plus the transportation cost is less than the demand price, there exists a trade. Thus, after an amount of exchange, the demand price will decrease. This process is continuous until an equilibrium state is obtained. However, how the trade network structure affects this process has received little attention. In this paper, we give a evolving model to describe the levels of spatial price on different complex network structures. The simulation results show that the network with shorter path length is sensitive to the variation of prices.

Financial price dynamics and pedestrian counterflows: A comparison of statistical stylized facts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parisi, Daniel R.; Sornette, Didier; Helbing, Dirk

2013-01-01

We propose and document the evidence for an analogy between the dynamics of granular counterflows in the presence of bottlenecks or restrictions and financial price formation processes. Using extensive simulations, we find that the counterflows of simulated pedestrians through a door display eight stylized facts observed in financial markets when the density around the door is compared with the logarithm of the price. Finding so many stylized facts is very rare indeed among all agent-based models of financial markets. The stylized properties are present when the agents in the pedestrian model are assumed to display a zero-intelligent behavior. If agents are given decision-making capacity and adapt to partially follow the majority, periods of herding behavior may additionally occur. This generates the very slow decay of the autocorrelation of absolute return due to an intermittent dynamics. Our findings suggest that the stylized facts in the fluctuations of the financial prices result from a competition of two groups with opposite interests in the presence of a constraint funneling the flow of transactions to a narrow band of prices with limited liquidity.

Financial price dynamics and pedestrian counterflows: a comparison of statistical stylized facts.

PubMed

Parisi, Daniel R; Sornette, Didier; Helbing, Dirk

2013-01-01

We propose and document the evidence for an analogy between the dynamics of granular counterflows in the presence of bottlenecks or restrictions and financial price formation processes. Using extensive simulations, we find that the counterflows of simulated pedestrians through a door display eight stylized facts observed in financial markets when the density around the door is compared with the logarithm of the price. Finding so many stylized facts is very rare indeed among all agent-based models of financial markets. The stylized properties are present when the agents in the pedestrian model are assumed to display a zero-intelligent behavior. If agents are given decision-making capacity and adapt to partially follow the majority, periods of herding behavior may additionally occur. This generates the very slow decay of the autocorrelation of absolute return due to an intermittent dynamics. Our findings suggest that the stylized facts in the fluctuations of the financial prices result from a competition of two groups with opposite interests in the presence of a constraint funneling the flow of transactions to a narrow band of prices with limited liquidity.

Oil prices, fiscal policy, and economic growth in oil-exporting countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Anshasy, Amany A.

This dissertation argues that in oil-exporting countries fiscal policy could play an important role in transmitting the oil shocks to the economy and that the indirect effects of the changes in oil prices via the fiscal channel could be quite significant. The study comprises three distinct, yet related, essays. In the first essay, I try to study the fiscal policy response to the changes in oil prices and to their growing volatility. In a dynamic general equilibrium framework, a fiscal policy reaction function is derived and is empirically tested for a panel of 15 oil-exporters covering the period 1970--2000. After the link between oil price shocks and fiscal policy is established, the second essay tries to investigate the impact of the highly volatile oil prices on economic growth for the same sample, controlling for the fiscal channel. In both essays the study employs recent dynamic panel-data estimation techniques: System GMM. This approach has the potential advantages of minimizing the bias resulting from estimating dynamic panel models, exploiting the time series properties of the data, controlling for the unobserved country-specific effects, and correcting for any simultaneity bias. In the third essay, I focus on the case of Venezuela for the period 1950--2001. The recent developments in the cointegrating vector autoregression, CVAR technique is applied to provide a suitable framework for analyzing the short-run dynamics and the long-run relationships among oil prices, government revenues, government consumption, investment, and output.

Linking Financial Market Dynamics and the Impact of News

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nacher, J. C.; Ochiai, T.

2011-09-01

In financial markets, he behavior of investors determines the prices of financial products. However, these investors can also be influenced by good and bad news. Here, we present a mathematical model to reproduce the price dynamics in real financial markets affected by news. The model has both positive and negative feed-back mechanisms. Furthermore, the behavior of the model is examined by considering two different types of noise. Our results show that the dynamic balance of positive and negative feed-back mechanisms with the noise effect determines the asset price movement. For comparison with real market, we have used the Forex data corresponding to the time period of the recent Tohoku-Kanto earthquake in Japan.

Dynamic Price Vector Formation Model-Based Automatic Demand Response Strategy for PV-Assisted EV Charging Stations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Qifang; Wang, Fei; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

A real-time price (RTP)-based automatic demand response (ADR) strategy for PV-assisted electric vehicle (EV) Charging Station (PVCS) without vehicle to grid is proposed. The charging process is modeled as a dynamic linear program instead of the normal day-ahead and real-time regulation strategy, to capture the advantages of both global and real-time optimization. Different from conventional price forecasting algorithms, a dynamic price vector formation model is proposed based on a clustering algorithm to form an RTP vector for a particular day. A dynamic feasible energy demand region (DFEDR) model considering grid voltage profiles is designed to calculate the lower and uppermore » bounds. A deduction method is proposed to deal with the unknown information of future intervals, such as the actual stochastic arrival and departure times of EVs, which make the DFEDR model suitable for global optimization. Finally, both the comparative cases articulate the advantages of the developed methods and the validity in reducing electricity costs, mitigating peak charging demand, and improving PV self-consumption of the proposed strategy are verified through simulation scenarios.« less

Delayed nonlinear cournot and bertrand dynamics with product differentiation.

PubMed

Matsumoto, Akio; Szidarovszky, Ferenc

2007-07-01

Dynamic duopolies will be examined with product differentiation and isoelastic price functions. We will first prove that under realistic conditions the equilibrium is always locally asymptotically stable. The stability can however be lost if the firms use delayed information in forming their best responses. Stability conditions are derived in special cases, and simulation results illustrate the complexity of the dynamism of the systems. Both price and quantity adjusting models are discussed.

A black box optimization approach to parameter estimation in a model for long/short term variations dynamics of commodity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Santis, Alberto; Dellepiane, Umberto; Lucidi, Stefano

2012-11-01

In this paper we investigate the estimation problem for a model of the commodity prices. This model is a stochastic state space dynamical model and the problem unknowns are the state variables and the system parameters. Data are represented by the commodity spot prices, very seldom time series of Futures contracts are available for free. Both the system joint likelihood function (state variables and parameters) and the system marginal likelihood (the state variables are eliminated) function are addressed.

Price and Volume Dynamics in the Japanese Stock Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamashita, Hirofumi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

We investigated data of stocks listed on Tokyo Stock Exchange. Although the data we used contains limited number of limit orders around the best prices in the ask and bid sides, we could confirm some issues of the layered structure which is similar to that in FX markets. We show time series of a market impact index, which is made using high correlation between dynamics of price and volume of limit orders. In the last section, we remark differences in our observations comparing with the FX market case.

Price dynamics of the financial markets using the stochastic differential equation for a potential double well

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, L. S.; Miranda, L. L. B.

2018-01-01

We have used the Itô's stochastic differential equation for the double well with additive white noise as a mathematical model for price dynamics of the financial market. We have presented a model which allows us to test within the same framework the comparative explanatory power of rational agents versus irrational agents, with respect to the facts of financial markets. We have obtained the mean price in terms of the β parameter that represents the force of the randomness term of the model.

Dynamic pricing of network goods with boundedly rational consumers.

PubMed

Radner, Roy; Radunskaya, Ami; Sundararajan, Arun

2014-01-07

We present a model of dynamic monopoly pricing for a good that displays network effects. In contrast with the standard notion of a rational-expectations equilibrium, we model consumers as boundedly rational and unable either to pay immediate attention to each price change or to make accurate forecasts of the adoption of the network good. Our analysis shows that the seller's optimal price trajectory has the following structure: The price is low when the user base is below a target level, is high when the user base is above the target, and is set to keep the user base stationary once the target level has been attained. We show that this pricing policy is robust to a number of extensions, which include the product's user base evolving over time and consumers basing their choices on a mixture of a myopic and a "stubborn" expectation of adoption. Our results differ significantly from those that would be predicted by a model based on rational-expectations equilibrium and are more consistent with the pricing of network goods observed in practice.

Dynamic pricing of network goods with boundedly rational consumers

PubMed Central

Radner, Roy; Radunskaya, Ami; Sundararajan, Arun

2014-01-01

We present a model of dynamic monopoly pricing for a good that displays network effects. In contrast with the standard notion of a rational-expectations equilibrium, we model consumers as boundedly rational and unable either to pay immediate attention to each price change or to make accurate forecasts of the adoption of the network good. Our analysis shows that the seller’s optimal price trajectory has the following structure: The price is low when the user base is below a target level, is high when the user base is above the target, and is set to keep the user base stationary once the target level has been attained. We show that this pricing policy is robust to a number of extensions, which include the product’s user base evolving over time and consumers basing their choices on a mixture of a myopic and a “stubborn” expectation of adoption. Our results differ significantly from those that would be predicted by a model based on rational-expectations equilibrium and are more consistent with the pricing of network goods observed in practice. PMID:24367101

Impact of stock market structure on intertrade time and price dynamics.

PubMed

Ivanov, Plamen Ch; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

2014-01-01

We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization-a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing patterns in price prediction and risk management optimization on different stock markets.

Impact of Stock Market Structure on Intertrade Time and Price Dynamics

PubMed Central

Ivanov, Plamen Ch.; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

2014-01-01

We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization–a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing patterns in price prediction and risk management optimization on different stock markets. PMID:24699376

Mixed integer nonlinear programming model of wireless pricing scheme with QoS attribute of bandwidth and end-to-end delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irmeilyana, Puspita, Fitri Maya; Indrawati

2016-02-01

The pricing for wireless networks is developed by considering linearity factors, elasticity price and price factors. Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming of wireless pricing model is proposed as the nonlinear programming problem that can be solved optimally using LINGO 13.0. The solutions are expected to give some information about the connections between the acceptance factor and the price. Previous model worked on the model that focuses on bandwidth as the QoS attribute. The models attempt to maximize the total price for a connection based on QoS parameter. The QoS attributes used will be the bandwidth and the end to end delay that affect the traffic. The maximum goal to maximum price is achieved when the provider determine the requirement for the increment or decrement of price change due to QoS change and amount of QoS value.

Identifying Key Drivers of Return Reversal with Dynamical Bayesian Factor Graph.

PubMed

Zhao, Shuai; Tong, Yunhai; Wang, Zitian; Tan, Shaohua

2016-01-01

In the stock market, return reversal occurs when investors sell overbought stocks and buy oversold stocks, reversing the stocks' price trends. In this paper, we develop a new method to identify key drivers of return reversal by incorporating a comprehensive set of factors derived from different economic theories into one unified dynamical Bayesian factor graph. We then use the model to depict factor relationships and their dynamics, from which we make some interesting discoveries about the mechanism behind return reversals. Through extensive experiments on the US stock market, we conclude that among the various factors, the liquidity factors consistently emerge as key drivers of return reversal, which is in support of the theory of liquidity effect. Specifically, we find that stocks with high turnover rates or high Amihud illiquidity measures have a greater probability of experiencing return reversals. Apart from the consistent drivers, we find other drivers of return reversal that generally change from year to year, and they serve as important characteristics for evaluating the trends of stock returns. Besides, we also identify some seldom discussed yet enlightening inter-factor relationships, one of which shows that stocks in Finance and Insurance industry are more likely to have high Amihud illiquidity measures in comparison with those in other industries. These conclusions are robust for return reversals under different thresholds.

Energy risk in the arbitrage pricing model: an empirical and theoretical study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bremer, M.A.

1986-01-01

This dissertation empirically explores the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the context of energy risk for securities over the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s. Starting from a general multifactor pricing model, the paper develops a two factor model based on a market-like factor and an energy factor. This model is then tested on portfolios of securities grouped according to industrial classification using several econometric techniques designed to overcome some of the more serious estimation problems common to these models. The paper concludes that energy risk is priced in the 1970s and possibly even in the 1960s. Energy risk is found tomore » be priced in the sense that investors who hold assets subjected to energy risk are paid for this risk. The classic version of the Capital Asset Pricing Model which posits the market as the single priced factor is rejected in favor of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory or multi-beta versions of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The study introduces some original econometric methodology to carry out empirical tests.« less

Unit Price Scaling Trends for Chemical Products

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qi, Wei; Sathre, Roger; William R. Morrow, III

2015-08-01

To facilitate early-stage life-cycle techno-economic modeling of emerging technologies, here we identify scaling relations between unit price and sales quantity for a variety of chemical products of three categories - metal salts, organic compounds, and solvents. We collect price quotations for lab-scale and bulk purchases of chemicals from both U.S. and Chinese suppliers. We apply a log-log linear regression model to estimate the price discount effect. Using the median discount factor of each category, one can infer bulk prices of products for which only lab-scale prices are available. We conduct out-of-sample tests showing that most of the price proxies deviatemore » from their actual reference prices by a factor less than ten. We also apply the bootstrap method to determine if a sample median discount factor should be accepted for price approximation. We find that appropriate discount factors for metal salts and for solvents are both -0.56, while that for organic compounds is -0.67 and is less representative due to greater extent of product heterogeneity within this category.« less

Markov model of the loan portfolio dynamics considering influence of management and external economic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozhalkina, Yana; Timofeeva, Galina

2016-12-01

Mathematical model of loan portfolio in the form of a controlled Markov chain with discrete time is considered. It is assumed that coefficients of migration matrix depend on corrective actions and external factors. Corrective actions include process of receiving applications, interaction with existing solvent and insolvent clients. External factors are macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation and unemployment rates, exchange rates, consumer price indices, etc. Changes in corrective actions adjust the intensity of transitions in the migration matrix. The mathematical model for forecasting the credit portfolio structure taking into account a cumulative impact of internal and external changes is obtained.

Factors associated with the pricing of childhood vaccines in the U.S. public sector.

PubMed

Chen, Weiwei; Messonnier, Mark; Zhou, Fangjun

2018-02-01

Vaccine purchase cost has grown substantially over the last few decades. A closer look at vaccine prices reveals that not all vaccines shared the same increasing pattern. Various factors, such as vaccine attributes, competition, and supply shortages, could relate to price changes. In this study, we examined whether a variety of factors influenced the prices of noninfluenza childhood vaccines purchased in the public sector from 1996 to 2014. The association differed among price-capped vaccines and combination vaccines. There was an increasing time trend in real prices for non-price-capped vaccines, which was mostly offset by the effect of market longevity. The effect of competition in lowering prices was more pronounced among non-price-capped vaccines when manufacturer and vaccine component fixed effects were excluded. Supply shortage, manufacturer name change, and number of vaccine doses in series showed no effect. The results may help policy makers better understand price behaviors and make more informed decisions in vaccine planning and financing. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Housing demand or money supply? A new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model on China's housing market fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Xing-Chun; He, Ling-Yun

2015-08-01

There is a bitter controversy over what drives the housing price in China in the existing literature. In this paper, we investigate the underlying driving force behind housing price fluctuations in China, especially focusing on the role of housing demand shock with that of money supply shock in explaining housing price movements, by a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Empirical results suggest that it is housing demand, instead of money supply, that mainly drives China's housing price movements. Relevant policy implication is further discussed, namely, whether to consider the housing price fluctuations in the conduct of monetary policy. By means of the policy simulations, we find that a real house price-augmented money supply rule is a better monetary policy for China's economy stabilization. 1. Investment refers to fixed capital investment. 2. Housing price refers to national average housing price. Quarterly data on housing price during the period of our work are not directly available. However, monthly data of the value of sales on housing and sale volume on housing can be directly obtained from National Bureau of Statistics of China. We add up the monthly data and calculate one quarter's housing price by dividing the value of housing sales by its sale volume in one quarter. 3. M2 means the broad money supply in China.

What Drives Crude Oil Prices?

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

An assessment of the various factors that may influence oil prices - physical market factors as well as those related to trading and financial markets. The analysis describes seven key factors that could influence oil markets and explores possible linkages between each factor and oil prices. Regularly updated graphs are included to illustrate aspects of those relationships.

5 CFR 591.228 - How does OPM convert the price index plus adjustment factor to a COLA rate?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... adjustment factor to a COLA rate? 591.228 Section 591.228 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL... adjustment factor to a COLA rate? (a) OPM converts the price index plus the adjustment factor to a COLA rate as shown in the following table: Price index plus adjustment factor COLA rate subject to paragraph (b...

5 CFR 591.228 - How does OPM convert the price index plus adjustment factor to a COLA rate?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... adjustment factor to a COLA rate? 591.228 Section 591.228 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL... adjustment factor to a COLA rate? (a) OPM converts the price index plus the adjustment factor to a COLA rate as shown in the following table: Price index plus adjustment factor COLA rate subject to paragraph (b...

5 CFR 591.228 - How does OPM convert the price index plus adjustment factor to a COLA rate?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... adjustment factor to a COLA rate? 591.228 Section 591.228 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL... adjustment factor to a COLA rate? (a) OPM converts the price index plus the adjustment factor to a COLA rate as shown in the following table: Price index plus adjustment factor COLA rate subject to paragraph (b...

5 CFR 591.228 - How does OPM convert the price index plus adjustment factor to a COLA rate?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... adjustment factor to a COLA rate? 591.228 Section 591.228 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL... adjustment factor to a COLA rate? (a) OPM converts the price index plus the adjustment factor to a COLA rate as shown in the following table: Price index plus adjustment factor COLA rate subject to paragraph (b...

Modeling the Dynamic Interrelations between Mobility, Utility, and Land Asking Price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidayat, E.; Rudiarto, I.; Siegert, F.; Vries, W. D.

2018-02-01

Limited and insufficient information about the dynamic interrelation among mobility, utility, and land price is the main reason to conduct this research. Several studies, with several approaches, and several variables have been conducted so far in order to model the land price. However, most of these models appear to generate primarily static land prices. Thus, a research is required to compare, design, and validate different models which calculate and/or compare the inter-relational changes of mobility, utility, and land price. The applied method is a combination of analysis of literature review, expert interview, and statistical analysis. The result is newly improved mathematical model which have been validated and is suitable for the case study location. This improved model consists of 12 appropriate variables. This model can be implemented in the Salatiga city as the case study location in order to arrange better land use planning to mitigate the uncontrolled urban growth.

Dynamic cost shifting in hospitals: evidence from the 1980s and 1990s.

PubMed

Clement, J P

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether dynamic cost shifting occurred among acute care hospitals during the period from the early 1980s to the early 1990s and, if so, whether market factors affected the ability to shift costs. Evidence from this study of California acute care hospitals during three time intervals shows that the hospital did practice dynamic cost shifting, but that their ability to shift costs decreased over time. Surprisingly, hospital competition and HMO penetration did not influence cost shifting. However, increasing HMO penetration (measured as the HMO percentage of hospital discharges) did decrease both net prices and costs for the early part of the study, but later was associated with increases in both.

A General Econometric Model of the Determinants of Library Subscription Prices of Scholarly Journals: The Role of Exchange Rate Risk and Other Factors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chressanthis, George A.; Chressanthis, June D.

1994-01-01

Provides regression-based empirical evidence of the effects of variations in exchange rate risk on 1985 library prices of the top-ranked 99 journals in economics. The relationship between individual journal prices and library prices is shown, and other factors associated with increases and decreases in library journal prices are given. (Contains…

Breakeven Prices for Photovoltaics on Supermarkets in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ong, S.; Clark, N.; Denholm, P.

The photovoltaic (PV) breakeven price is the PV system price at which the cost of PV-generated electricity equals the cost of electricity purchased from the grid. This point is also called 'grid parity' and can be expressed as dollars per watt ($/W) of installed PV system capacity. Achieving the PV breakeven price depends on many factors, including the solar resource, local electricity prices, customer load profile, PV incentives, and financing. In the United States, where these factors vary substantially across regions, breakeven prices vary substantially across regions as well. In this study, we estimate current and future breakeven prices formore » PV systems installed on supermarkets in the United States. We also evaluate key drivers of current and future commercial PV breakeven prices by region. The results suggest that breakeven prices for PV systems installed on supermarkets vary significantly across the United States. Non-technical factors -- including electricity rates, rate structures, incentives, and the availability of system financing -- drive break-even prices more than technical factors like solar resource or system orientation. In 2020 (where we assume higher electricity prices and lower PV incentives), under base-case assumptions, we estimate that about 17% of supermarkets will be in utility territories where breakeven conditions exist at a PV system price of $3/W; this increases to 79% at $1.25/W (the DOE SunShot Initiative's commercial PV price target for 2020). These percentages increase to 26% and 91%, respectively, when rate structures favorable to PV are used.« less

Determinants of immediate price impacts at the trade level in an emerging order-driven market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Wei-Xing

2012-02-01

Common wisdom argues that, in general, large trades cause large price changes, whereas small trades cause small price changes. However, for extremely large price changes, the trade size and news play a minor role, while liquidity (especially price gaps on the limit order book) is a more influential factor. Hence, there might be other factors influencing the immediate price impacts of trades. In this paper, through mechanical analysis of price variations before and after a trade of arbitrary size, we identify that the trade size, the bid-ask spread, the price gaps and the outstanding volumes at the bid and ask sides of the limit order book have an impact on the changes in prices. We propose two regression models to investigate the influence of these microscopic factors on the price impact of buyer-initiated partially filled trades, seller-initiated partially filled trades, buyer-initiated filled trades and seller-initiated filled trades. We find that they have quantitatively similar explanatory powers and these factors can account for up to 44% of the price impacts. Large trade sizes, wide bid-ask spreads, high liquidity at the same side and low liquidity at the opposite side will cause a large price impact. We also find that the liquidity at the opposite side has a more influential impact than the liquidity at the same side. Our results shed new light on the determinants of immediate price impacts.

Diffusive and Arrestedlike Dynamics in Currency Exchange Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clara-Rahola, J.; Puertas, A. M.; Sánchez-Granero, M. A.; Trinidad-Segovia, J. E.; de las Nieves, F. J.

2017-02-01

This work studies the symmetry between colloidal dynamics and the dynamics of the Euro-U.S. dollar currency exchange market (EURUSD). We consider the EURUSD price in the time range between 2001 and 2015, where we find significant qualitative symmetry between fluctuation distributions from this market and the ones belonging to colloidal particles in supercooled or arrested states. In particular, we find that models used for arrested physical systems are suitable for describing the EURUSD fluctuation distributions. Whereas the corresponding mean-squared price displacement (MSPD) to the EURUSD is diffusive for all years, when focusing in selected time frames within a day, we find a two-step MSPD when the New York Stock Exchange market closes, comparable to the dynamics in supercooled systems. This is corroborated by looking at the price correlation functions and non-Gaussian parameters and can be described by the theoretical model. We discuss the origin and implications of this analogy.

Information Cost, Memory Length and Market Instability.

PubMed

Diks, Cees; Li, Xindan; Wu, Chengyao

2018-07-01

In this article, we study the instability of a stock market with a modified version of Diks and Dindo's (2008) model where the market is characterized by nonlinear interactions between informed traders and uninformed traders. In the interaction of heterogeneous agents, we replace the replicator dynamics for the fractions by logistic strategy switching. This modification makes the model more suitable for describing realistic price dynamics, as well as more robust with respect to parameter changes. One goal of our paper is to use this model to explore if the arrival of new information (news) and investor behavior have an effect on market instability. A second, related, goal is to study the way markets absorb new information, especially when the market is unstable and the price is far from being fully informative. We find that the dynamics become locally unstable and prices may deviate far from the fundamental price, routing to chaos through bifurcation, with increasing information costs or decreasing memory length of the uninformed traders.

Nonlinear bivariate dependency of price-volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets: A perspective from Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Ling-Yun; Chen, Shu-Peng

2011-01-01

Nonlinear dependency between characteristic financial and commodity market quantities (variables) is crucially important, especially between trading volume and market price. Studies on nonlinear dependency between price and volume can provide practical insights into market trading characteristics, as well as the theoretical understanding of market dynamics. Actually, nonlinear dependency and its underlying dynamical mechanisms between price and volume can help researchers and technical analysts in understanding the market dynamics by integrating the market variables, instead of investigating them in the current literature. Therefore, for investigating nonlinear dependency of price-volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets in China and the US, we perform a new statistical test to detect cross-correlations and apply a new methodology called Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA), which is an efficient algorithm to analyze two spatially or temporally correlated time series. We discuss theoretically the relationship between the bivariate cross-correlation exponent and the generalized Hurst exponents for time series of respective variables. We also perform an empirical study and find that there exists a power-law cross-correlation between them, and that multifractal features are significant in all the analyzed agricultural commodity futures markets.

Underlying dynamics of typical fluctuations of an emerging market price index: The Heston model from minutes to months

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicente, Renato; de Toledo, Charles M.; Leite, Vitor B. P.; Caticha, Nestor

2006-02-01

We investigate the Heston model with stochastic volatility and exponential tails as a model for the typical price fluctuations of the Brazilian São Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA). Raw prices are first corrected for inflation and a period spanning 15 years characterized by memoryless returns is chosen for the analysis. Model parameters are estimated by observing volatility scaling and correlation properties. We show that the Heston model with at least two time scales for the volatility mean reverting dynamics satisfactorily describes price fluctuations ranging from time scales larger than 20 min to 160 days. At time scales shorter than 20 min we observe autocorrelated returns and power law tails incompatible with the Heston model. Despite major regulatory changes, hyperinflation and currency crises experienced by the Brazilian market in the period studied, the general success of the description provided may be regarded as an evidence for a general underlying dynamics of price fluctuations at intermediate mesoeconomic time scales well approximated by the Heston model. We also notice that the connection between the Heston model and Ehrenfest urn models could be exploited for bringing new insights into the microeconomic market mechanics.

Kinetic market models with single commodity having price fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, A.; Chakrabarti, B. K.

2006-12-01

We study here numerically the behavior of an ideal gas like model of markets having only one non-consumable commodity. We investigate the behavior of the steady-state distributions of money, commodity and total wealth, as the dynamics of trading or exchange of money and commodity proceeds, with local (in time) fluctuations in the price of the commodity. These distributions are studied in markets with agents having uniform and random saving factors. The self-organizing features in money distribution are similar to the cases without any commodity (or with consumable commodities), while the commodity distribution shows an exponential decay. The wealth distribution shows interesting behavior: gamma like distribution for uniform saving propensity and has the same power-law tail, as that of the money distribution, for a market with agents having random saving propensity.

Effect of External Economic-Field Cycle and Market Temperature on Stock-Price Hysteresis: Monte Carlo Simulation on the Ising Spin Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Punya Jaroenjittichai, Atchara; Laosiritaworn, Yongyut

2017-09-01

In this work, the stock-price versus economic-field hysteresis was investigated. The Ising spin Hamiltonian was utilized as the level of ‘disagreement’ in describing investors’ behaviour. The Ising spin directions were referred to an investor’s intention to perform his action on trading his stock. The periodic economic variation was also considered via the external economic-field in the Ising model. The stochastic Monte Carlo simulation was performed on Ising spins, where the steady-state excess demand and supply as well as the stock-price were extracted via the magnetization. From the results, the economic-field parameters and market temperature were found to have significant effect on the dynamic magnetization and stock-price behaviour. Specifically, the hysteresis changes from asymmetric to symmetric loops with increasing market temperature and economic-field strength. However, the hysteresis changes from symmetric to asymmetric loops with increasing the economic-field frequency, when either temperature or economic-field strength is large enough, and returns to symmetric shape at very high frequencies. This suggests competitive effects among field and temperature factors on the hysteresis characteristic, implying multi-dimensional complicated non-trivial relationship among inputs-outputs. As is seen, the results reported (over extensive range) can be used as basis/guideline for further analysis/quantifying how economic-field and market-temperature affect the stock-price distribution on the course of economic cycle.

A model for the dynamic behavior of financial assets affected by news: The case of Tohoku-Kanto earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochiai, T.; Nacher, J. C.

2011-09-01

The prices of financial products in markets are determined by the behavior of investors, who are influenced by positive and negative news. Here, we present a mathematical model to reproduce the price movements in real financial markets affected by news. The model has both positive and negative feed-back mechanisms. Furthermore, the behavior of the model is examined by considering two types of noise. Our results show that the dynamic balance of positive and negative feed-back mechanisms with the noise effect determines the asset price movement.

Stochastic GARCH dynamics describing correlations between stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prat-Ortega, G.; Savel'ev, S. E.

2014-09-01

The ARCH and GARCH processes have been successfully used for modelling price dynamics such as stock returns or foreign exchange rates. Analysing the long range correlations between stocks, we propose a model, based on the GARCH process, which is able to describe the main characteristics of the stock price correlations, including the mean, variance, probability density distribution and the noise spectrum.

Non-price competition in the regional high-rise construction market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganebnykh, Elena; Burtseva, Tatyana; Gurova, Ekaterina; Polyakova, Irina

2018-03-01

The article analyzes the market of high-rise residential construction in the city of Kirov (Russia). A minimal significance of price factors has been revealed in the process of the market analysis. This suggests that a lower price does not guarantee an increase in consumer demand. Thus, factors of non-price competition are of great importance in the market in question. The expert survey has identified the factors of non-price competition which influence consumer perceptions. A perceptual map has been constructed on the basis of the identified factors by means of the factor analysis to determine the positioning of each high-rise building relative to the consumer requirements. None of the high-rise residential buildings in the market in question meets the consumers' expectations of an "ideal facility".

A Dealer Model of Foreign Exchange Market with Finite Assets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamano, Tomoya; Kanazawa, Kiyoshi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

An agent-based model is introduced to study the finite-asset effect in foreign exchange markets. We find that the transacted price asymptotically approaches an equilibrium price, which is determined by the monetary balance between the pair of currencies. We phenomenologically derive a formula to estimate the equilibrium price, and we model its relaxation dynamics around the equilibrium price on the basis of a Langevin-like equation.

Are Gasoline Prices a Factor in Residential Relocation Decisions? Preliminary Findings from the American Housing Survey, 1996–2008

PubMed Central

Chi, Guangqing; Boydstun, Jamie

2018-01-01

Residential relocation choice is affected by numerous factors, but gasoline prices as a potential factor have not been investigated. This study examines gasoline price changes and residential relocation choice using 1996–2008 American Housing Survey data. We found higher gasoline prices are associated with a higher percentage of movers choosing locations closer to workplaces. The findings have implications for addressing the impacts of volatile gasoline prices on land use planning and policies; resilient “smart cities or communities” are one possible solution. PMID:29658959

[Competition between branded and generic drugs in Austria: evidence from the market for ACE inhibitors].

PubMed

Mahlich, J C; Stadler, I

2012-01-01

The market for pharmaceuticals in Austria is highly regulated and manufacturers cannot set prices freely after patent expiration of the pioneer drug. We wanted to examine the effect of price regulation on price competition between branded and generic drugs in Austria. We examined the Austrian market for ACE inhibitors and describe competitive dynamics by means of 6 indices. We compared our results with those of Grabowski and Vernon who studied the US market. According to our analysis the competition amongst the producers of generic drugs is not great and consequently, compared to the USA, over time the prices for generic products decrease less and their market share increases less. This is due to a market-oriented system in the USA which waives most regulatory provisions. Our conclusions are in line with the findings by Danzon und Chao (2000) who argue that in a price-regulated market competitive dynamics are less strongly developed. From a politico-economic view, the necessity of price regulations in the pharmaceutical market seems questionable, as price regulations generally also cause other negative effects, such as distorted economic incentives for research and development investments. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Market reaction to a bid-ask spread change: A power-law relaxation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponzi, Adam; Lillo, Fabrizio; Mantegna, Rosario N.

2009-07-01

We study the relaxation dynamics of the bid-ask spread and of the midprice after a sudden variation of the spread in a double auction financial market. We find that the spread decays as a power law to its normal value. We measure the price reversion dynamics and the permanent impact, i.e., the long-time effect on price, of a generic event altering the spread and we find an approximately linear relation between immediate and permanent impact. We hypothesize that the power-law decay of the spread is a consequence of the strategic limit order placement of liquidity providers. We support this hypothesis by investigating several quantities, such as order placement rates and distribution of prices and times of submitted orders, which affect the decay of the spread.

7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... order) for the preceding month: (1) The Class II price; (2) The Class II butterfat price; (3) The Class... the following month: (1) The Class I price; (2) The Class I skim milk price; (3) The Class I butterfat...; (7) The butterfat price; (8) The nonfat solids price; (9) The protein price; (10) The other solids...

7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... order) for the preceding month: (1) The Class II price; (2) The Class II butterfat price; (3) The Class... the following month: (1) The Class I price; (2) The Class I skim milk price; (3) The Class I butterfat...; (7) The butterfat price; (8) The nonfat solids price; (9) The protein price; (10) The other solids...

7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... order) for the preceding month: (1) The Class II price; (2) The Class II butterfat price; (3) The Class... the following month: (1) The Class I price; (2) The Class I skim milk price; (3) The Class I butterfat...; (7) The butterfat price; (8) The nonfat solids price; (9) The protein price; (10) The other solids...

7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... order) for the preceding month: (1) The Class II price; (2) The Class II butterfat price; (3) The Class... the following month: (1) The Class I price; (2) The Class I skim milk price; (3) The Class I butterfat...; (7) The butterfat price; (8) The nonfat solids price; (9) The protein price; (10) The other solids...

7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... order) for the preceding month: (1) The Class II price; (2) The Class II butterfat price; (3) The Class... the following month: (1) The Class I price; (2) The Class I skim milk price; (3) The Class I butterfat...; (7) The butterfat price; (8) The nonfat solids price; (9) The protein price; (10) The other solids...

Influence of market factors on the pricing of exchange traded metals in the medium term

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogdanov, S. V.; Shevelev, I. M.; Chernyi, S. A.

2017-06-01

On the basis of comparison of the influence of the stock exchange factors on the pricing of nonferrous metals for medium term with similar results for short term, it has been established that the main attention should be paid to the changes in the pricing environment on the metal market as a function of the prices of exchange traded metals. The situation on the market of energy carriers (hydrocarbons) and the European, American, and Asian stock exchanges can be based on parity and even significantly influence the variation of the metal prices. In the medium term, constructive development of metal trade should be reasonably promoted by changing the elasticity of supply with regard to prices for exchange traded metals and by applying the stock exchange factors that positively influence the pricing on commodity and stock markets.

Option Pricing with a Levy-Type Stochastic Dynamic Model for Stock Price Process Under Semi-Markovian Structural Perturbations

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-30

of interest are currently being investigated: (1) an evaluation of the effects of the backward recurrence time, the sojourn time distribution and the...Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 407, 350–359. W. Schachermayer (2010) Fundamental theorem of asset pricing, Encyclopedia of Quanti - tative

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bunzl, Martin

Dynamic pricing holds out the promise of shifting peak demand as well as reducing overall demand. But it also raises thorny issues of fairness. All practical pricing systems involve tradeoffs between equity and efficiency. I examine the circumstances under which equity ought to be allowed to trump efficiency and whether or not this constitutes a defense of flat pricing. (author)

Order flow dynamics around extreme price changes on an emerging stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, Guo-Hua; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Chen, Wei; Kertész, János

2010-07-01

We study the dynamics of order flows around large intraday price changes using ultra-high-frequency data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. We find a significant reversal of price for both intraday price decreases and increases with a permanent price impact. The volatility, the volume of different types of orders, the bid-ask spread and the volume imbalance increase before the extreme events and decay slowly as a power law, which forms a well-established peak. The volume of buy market orders increases faster and the corresponding peak appears earlier than for sell market orders around positive events, while the volume peak of sell market orders leads buy market orders in the magnitude and time around negative events. When orders are divided into four groups according to their aggressiveness, we find that the behaviors of order volume and order number are similar, except for buy limit orders and canceled orders that the peak of order number postpones 2 min later after the peak of order volume, implying that investors placing large orders are more informed and play a central role in large price fluctuations. We also study the relative rates of different types of orders and find differences in the dynamics of relative rates between buy orders and sell orders and between individual investors and institutional investors. There is evidence that institutions behave very differently from individuals and that they have more aggressive strategies. Combining these findings, we conclude that institutional investors are better informed and play a more influential role in driving large price fluctuations.

Stochastic processes in the social sciences: Markets, prices and wealth distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romero, Natalia E.

The present work uses statistical mechanics tools to investigate the dynamics of markets, prices, trades and wealth distribution. We studied the evolution of market dynamics in different stages of historical development by analyzing commodity prices from two distinct periods ancient Babylon, and medieval and early modern England. We find that the first-digit distributions of both Babylon and England commodity prices follow Benfords law, indicating that the data represent empirical observations typically arising from a free market. Further, we find that the normalized prices of both Babylon and England agricultural commodities are characterized by stretched exponential distributions, and exhibit persistent correlations of a power law type over long periods of up to several centuries, in contrast to contemporary markets. Our findings suggest that similar market interactions may underlie the dynamics of ancient agricultural commodity prices, and that these interactions may remain stable across centuries. To further investigate the dynamics of markets we present the analogy between transfers of money between individuals and the transfer of energy through particle collisions by means of the kinetic theory of gases. We introduce a theoretical framework of how the micro rules of trading lead to the emergence of income and wealth distribution. Particularly, we study the effects of different types of distribution of savings/investments among individuals in a society and different welfare/subsidies redistribution policies. Results show that while considering savings propensities the models approach empirical distributions of wealth quite well the effect of redistribution better captures specific features of the distributions which earlier models failed to do; moreover the models still preserve the exponential decay observed in empirical income distributions reported by tax data and surveys.

The Dynamic Effects of Changes in Prices and Affordability on Alcohol Consumption: An Impulse Response Analysis.

PubMed

Jiang, Heng; Livingston, Michael

2015-11-01

To investigate how changes in alcohol price and affordability are related to aggregate level alcohol consumption in Australia to help to inform effective price and tax policy to influence consumption. Annual time series data between 1974 and 2012 on price and per-capita consumption for beer, wine and spirits and average weekly income were collected from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Using a Vector Autoregressive model and impulse response analysis, the dynamic responses of alcohol consumption to changes in alcohol prices and affordability were estimated. Alcohol consumption in Australia was negatively associated with alcohol price and positively associated with the affordability of alcohol. The results of the impulse response analysis suggest that a 10% increase in the alcohol price was associated with a 2% decrease in the population-level alcohol consumption in the following year, with further, diminishing, effects up to year 8, leading to an overall 6% reduction in total consumption. In contrast, when alcohol affordability increased, per-capita alcohol consumption increased over the following 6 years. Our findings suggest that increasing alcohol prices or taxes can help to reduce alcohol consumption at the population level in Australia. However, the impact of affordability in our findings highlights that pricing policies need to consider increases in income to ensure effectiveness. Alcohol price policy should only cautiously focus on individual beverage types, because increasing the price of one beverage generally leads to an increase in consumption of substitutes. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Riding the Electricity Market as an Energy Management Strategy: Savings from Real-Time Pricing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiles, Thomas; Shutika, Kenneth; Coleman, Philip

Dynamic pricing of electricity, in which retail prices facing customers are responsive to changes in the underlying wholesale markets, represents a step towards economic efficiency in that customers get exposed to some or all of the costs facing wholesale market players. But what do customers who opt for this greater exposure – available in the roughly 15 “de-regulated” states, as well as, to some extent, from some regulated utilities – get in return for their risks? The U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) took a retrospective eight-year look at what the savings would have been had they let the loads formore » which they purchase electricity in the Washington, DC area buy electricity on the real-time pricing (RTP) market – the dynamic pricing option with the highest risk – as opposed to the strategy they chose in actuality, which was fixing flat prices with 3rd-party providers. We found that opting for RTP for the eight years of the study (2005 through 2012) would have resulted in 17% savings, or almost a quarter of a billion dollars, relative to GSA’s actual prices from the 3rd-party suppliers. This is particularly astonishing given that GSA appeared to have timed the market well during the study period, consistently beating the standard offer products provided by the distribution utilities. The issue of budgetary predictability poses an obstacle for customers (especially government ones) considering RTP and, to a lesser extent, other dynamic pricing options. Indeed, GSA would have lost money with RTP in two of the eight years, one of them substantially. But the magnitude of the savings is indisputably compelling and, even if it may be somewhat aberrational due to high congestion in the DC market, begs consideration by large electricity users currently paying to “lock in” fixed flat prices.« less

Dynamic competition in pharmaceuticals. Patent expiry, generic penetration, and industry structure.

PubMed

Magazzini, Laura; Pammolli, Fabio; Riccaboni, Massimo

2004-06-01

This paper investigates patterns of industrial dynamics and competition in the pharmaceutical industry, with particular reference to the consequences of patent expiry in different countries. We focus on the competition at the level of single chemical entities, distinguishing between original brands and generic products. Quarterly data, spanning from July 1987 to December 1998, on sales of pharmaceutical products in four countries (USA, UK, Germany, and France) constitute the basis of our analysis. All the products containing major molecules whose patent expiration date lies between 1986 and 1996 are included in our sample. We show how diffusion of generics is linked to the characteristics of the market and investigate how price dynamics of original products are affected by generic competition. Our empirical investigation shows that the dynamics of drug prices and the competition by generic drugs vary significantly across countries. This heterogeneity notwithstanding, a clear distinction seems to emerge. On the one hand, systems that rely on market-based competition in pharmaceuticals promote a clear distinction between firms that act as innovators and firms that act as imitators after patent expiry. Here, original products enjoy premium prices and exclusivity profits under patent protection, and face fierce price competition after patent expiry. On the other hand, in systems that rely on administered prices, penetration by generic drugs tends to be rather limited. Its descriptive and preliminary nature notwithstanding, our analysis seems to have relevant implications at different levels of generality, especially for Europe.

STS pricing policy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, C. M.; Stone, B.

1982-01-01

In 1977 NASA published Shuttle Reimbursement Policies for Civil U.S. Government, DOD and Commercial and Foreign Users. These policies were based on the principle of total cost recovery over a period of time with a fixed flat price for initial period to time to enhance transition. This fixed period was to be followed with annual adjustments thereafter, NASA is establishing a new price for 1986 and beyond. In order to recover costs, that price must be higher than the initial fixed price through FY 1985. NASA intends to remain competitive. Competitive posture includes not only price, but other factors such as assured launch, reliability, and unique services. NASA's pricing policy considers all these factors.

Factors influencing global antiretroviral procurement prices.

PubMed

Wirtz, Veronika J; Forsythe, Steven; Valencia-Mendoza, Atanacio; Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio

2009-11-18

Antiretroviral medicines (ARVs) are one of the most costly parts of HIV/AIDS treatment. Many countries are struggling to provide universal access to ARVs for all people living with HIV and AIDS. Although substantial price reductions of ARVs have occurred, especially between 2002 and 2008, achieving sustainable access for the next several decades remains a major challenge for most low- and middle-income countries. The objectives of the present study were twofold: first, to analyze global ARV prices between 2005 and 2008 and associated factors, particularly procurement methods and key donor policies on ARV procurement efficiency; second, to discuss the options of procurement processes and policies that should be considered when implementing or reforming access to ARV programs. An ARV-medicines price-analysis was carried out using the Global Price Reporting Mechanism from the World Health Organization. For a selection of 12 ARVs, global median prices and price variation were calculated. Linear regression models for each ARV were used to identify factors that were associated with lower procurement prices. Logistic regression models were used to identify the characteristics of those countries which procure below the highest and lowest direct manufactured costs. Three key factors appear to have an influence on a country's ARV prices: (a) whether the product is generic or not; (b) the socioeconomic status of the country; (c) whether the country is a member of the Clinton HIV/AIDS Initiative. Factors which did not influence procurement below the highest direct manufactured costs were HIV prevalence, procurement volume, whether the country belongs to the least developed countries or a focus country of the United States President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief. One of the principal mechanisms that can help to lower prices for ARV over the next several decades is increasing procurement efficiency. Benchmarking prices could be one useful tool to achieve this.

Identifying Key Drivers of Return Reversal with Dynamical Bayesian Factor Graph

PubMed Central

Zhao, Shuai; Tong, Yunhai; Wang, Zitian; Tan, Shaohua

2016-01-01

In the stock market, return reversal occurs when investors sell overbought stocks and buy oversold stocks, reversing the stocks’ price trends. In this paper, we develop a new method to identify key drivers of return reversal by incorporating a comprehensive set of factors derived from different economic theories into one unified dynamical Bayesian factor graph. We then use the model to depict factor relationships and their dynamics, from which we make some interesting discoveries about the mechanism behind return reversals. Through extensive experiments on the US stock market, we conclude that among the various factors, the liquidity factors consistently emerge as key drivers of return reversal, which is in support of the theory of liquidity effect. Specifically, we find that stocks with high turnover rates or high Amihud illiquidity measures have a greater probability of experiencing return reversals. Apart from the consistent drivers, we find other drivers of return reversal that generally change from year to year, and they serve as important characteristics for evaluating the trends of stock returns. Besides, we also identify some seldom discussed yet enlightening inter-factor relationships, one of which shows that stocks in Finance and Insurance industry are more likely to have high Amihud illiquidity measures in comparison with those in other industries. These conclusions are robust for return reversals under different thresholds. PMID:27893780

Factors Which Influence The Fish Purchasing Decision: A study on Traditional Market in Riau Mainland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siswati, Latifa; Putri, Asgami

2018-05-01

The purposes of the research are to analyze and assess the factors which influence fish purchasing by the community at Tenayan Raya district Pekanbaru.Research methodology which used is survey method, especially interview and observation technique or direct supervision on the market which located at Tenayan Raya district. Determination technique of sampling location/region is done by purposive sampling. The sampling method is done by accidental sampling. Technique analysis of factors which used using the data that derived from the respondent opinion to various fish variable. The result of this research are the factors which influence fish purchasing decision done in a traditional market which located at Tenayan Raya district are product factor, price factors, social factor and individual factor. Product factor which influences fish purchasing decision as follows: the eyelets condition, the nutrition of fresh fish, the diversity of sold fish. Price factors influence the fish purchasing decision, such as: the price of fresh fish, the convincing price and the suitability price and benefits of the fresh fish. Individual factors which influence a fish purchasing decision, such as education and income levels. Social factors which influence a fish purchasing decision, such as family, colleagues and feeding habits of fish.

Derivative pricing with non-linear Fokker-Planck dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michael, Fredrick; Johnson, M. D.

2003-06-01

We examine how the Black-Scholes derivative pricing formula is modified when the underlying security obeys non-extensive statistics and Fokker-Planck dynamics. An unusual feature of such securities is that the volatility in the underlying Ito-Langevin equation depends implicitly on the actual market rate of return. This complicates most approaches to valuation. Here we show that progress is possible using variations of the Cox-Ross valuation technique.

7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

..., rounded to the nearest cent, shall be the protein price per pound times 3.1 plus the other solids price... cents and multiplying the result by 0.99. (n) Protein price. The protein price per pound, rounded to the... one-hundredth cent, shall be the U.S. average NASS dry whey survey price reported by the Department...

Statistical properties and pre-hit dynamics of price limit hits in the Chinese stock markets.

PubMed

Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2015-01-01

Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders' short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners.

The transmission of fluctuation among price indices based on Granger causality network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qingru; Gao, Xiangyun; Wen, Shaobo; Chen, Zhihua; Hao, Xiaoqing

2018-09-01

In this paper, we provide a method of statistical physics to analyze the fluctuation of transmission by constructing Granger causality network among price indices (PIGCN) from a systematical perspective, using complex network theory combined with Granger causality method. In economic system, there are numerous price indices, of which the relationships are extreme complicated. Thus, time series data of 6 types of price indices of China, including 113 kinds of sub price indices, are selected as example of empirical study. Through the analysis of the structure of PIGCN, we identify important price indices with high transmission range, high intermediation capacity, high cohesion and the fluctuation transmission path of price indices, respectively. Furthermore, dynamic relationships among price indices are revealed. Based on these results, we provide several policy implications for monitoring the diffusion of risk of price fluctuation. Our method can also be used to study the price indices of other countries, which is generally applicable.

5 CFR 591.228 - How does OPM convert the price index plus adjustment factor to a COLA rate?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... than 124.50 Price index plus the adjustment factor, minus 100, expressed to the nearest whole percent... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false How does OPM convert the price index plus... Differential-Nonforeign Areas Cost-Of-Living Allowances § 591.228 How does OPM convert the price index plus...

Impact of a smoking and alcohol intervention programme on lung and breast cancer incidence in Denmark: An example of dynamic modelling with Prevent.

PubMed

Soerjomataram, Isabelle; de Vries, Esther; Engholm, Gerda; Paludan-Müller, Georg; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Storm, Hans H; Barendregt, Jan J

2010-09-01

Among the known risk factors, smoking is clearly related to the incidence of lung cancer and alcohol consumption is to breast cancer. In this manuscript we modelled the potential benefits of reductions in smoking or alcohol prevalence for the burden of these cancers. We used Prevent v.3.01 to assess the changes in incidence as a result of risk factor changes. Incidence of lung and breast cancer until 2050 was predicted under two scenarios: ideal (total elimination of smoking and reduction of alcohol intake to maximum 1 units/d for women) and optimistic (decreasing prevalence of risk factors because of a 10% increase in cigarette and alcohol beverage price, repeated every 5 years). Danish data from the household surveys, cancer registration and Eurostat were used. Up to 49% less new lung cancer cases can be expected in 2050 if smoking were to be completely eliminated. Five-yearly 10% price increases may prevent 521 new lung cancer cases in 2050 (21% less cases). An intervention that immediately reduces population alcohol consumption to the recommended level (below 12 g/d) may lower breast cancer by 7%, preventing 445 out of the 6060 expected new cases in 2050. Five-yearly 10% price increases in alcoholic beverages achieved a reduction of half as expected by the ideal scenario, i.e. 4% (262) preventable cases in 2050. The future burden of lung and breast cancer could be markedly reduced by intervening in their risk factors. Prevent illustrates the benefit of interventions and may serve as guidance in political decision-making. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The economic-engineering of smart-meter-enabled dynamic water pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rougé, Charles; Harou, Julien

2016-04-01

The introduction of smart metering is set to revolutionize in many ways how water utilities conduct their business and interact with customers. Among those is the possibility of changing water prices during the day or seasonally. This work presents the engineering and economic implications of dynamic pricing implemented at two distinct timescales, 1) a seasonal scarcity tariff aimed at reducing consumption during drier period or droughts, and 2) time-of-day tariffs aimed at reducing peak-hour water use. Sophisticated dynamic pricing schemes are hard to understand for many users, and this reduces their social acceptability because it gives the impression that they help the water utility charge more for water. Therefore, we focus on simple pricing mechanisms, and estimating their short- and long-term benefits for communication with regulators and consumers. Seasonal scarcity tariffs are designed by adjusting prices such that the increased expenditure is commensurate with economic gains in other uses such as the environment and recreation. These tariffs could promote efficient use of limited supplies during relatively dry periods. In the long term, consistently reducing water consumption when it is scarce delays the need to invest in new sources of supply meant only for dry periods (e.g. desalination) which can bring down supply costs in the long-term. Reducing peak-hour use through time-of-day tariffs in the short run decreases peak-hour energy consumption and delays maintenance by reducing the likelihood of pipe burst. In the long run it delays capacity expansion of the distribution network. We develop and demonstrate a simple economic model of water supply to a generic city to demonstrate these concepts. This simple model is applied to London's water supply to better understand the scale of potential price changes and savings given London's environmental flow demands.

Real-time dynamic pricing for bicycle sharing programs.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-10-01

This paper presents a new conceptual approach to improve the operational performance of public bike sharing systems : using pricing schemes. Its methodological developments are accompanied by experimental analyses with bike demand : data from Capital...

Factors influencing the difference between forecasted and actual drug sales volumes under the price-volume agreement in South Korea.

PubMed

Park, Sun-Young; Han, Euna; Kim, Jini; Lee, Eui-Kyung

2016-08-01

This study analyzed factors contributing to increases in the actual sales volumes relative to forecasted volumes of drugs under price-volume agreement (PVA) policy in South Korea. Sales volumes of newly listed drugs on the national formulary are monitored under PVA policy. When actual sales volume exceeds the pre-agreed forecasted volume by 30% or more, the drug is subject to price-reduction. Logistic regression assessed the factors related to whether drugs were the PVA price-reduction drugs. A generalized linear model with gamma distribution and log-link assessed the factors influencing the increase in actual volumes compared to forecasted volume in the PVA price-reduction drugs. Of 186 PVA monitored drugs, 34.9% were price-reduction drugs. Drugs marketed by pharmaceutical companies with previous-occupation in the therapeutic markets were more likely to be PVA price-reduction drugs than drugs marketed by firms with no previous-occupation. Drugs of multinational pharmaceutical companies were more likely to be PVA price-reduction drugs than those of domestic companies. Having more alternative existing drugs was significantly associated with higher odds of being PVA price-reduction drugs. Among the PVA price-reduction drugs, the increasing rate of actual volume compared to forecasted volume was significantly higher in drugs with clinical usefulness. By focusing the negotiation efforts on those target drugs, PVA policy can be administered more efficiently with the improved predictability of the drug sales volumes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

E-Valuation: Pricing E-Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartley, Darin E.

2001-01-01

Looks at the ways that electronic learning is priced in organizations and the factors that influence the pricing. Discusses pros and cons of several pricing options: price per seat, subscription, pay as you go, per server, free, and payment based on time. (JOW)

Portfolio selection and asset pricing under a benchmark approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platen, Eckhard

2006-10-01

The paper presents classical and new results on portfolio optimization, as well as the fair pricing concept for derivative pricing under the benchmark approach. The growth optimal portfolio is shown to be a central object in a market model. It links asset pricing and portfolio optimization. The paper argues that the market portfolio is a proxy of the growth optimal portfolio. By choosing the drift of the discounted growth optimal portfolio as parameter process, one obtains a realistic theoretical market dynamics.

Modeling Long-term Behavior of Stock Market Prices Using Differential Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaoxiang; Zhao, Conan; Mazilu, Irina

2015-03-01

Due to incomplete information available in the market and uncertainties associated with the price determination process, the stock prices fluctuate randomly during a short period of time. In the long run, however, certain economic factors, such as the interest rate, the inflation rate, and the company's revenue growth rate, will cause a gradual shift in the stock price. Thus, in this paper, a differential equation model has been constructed in order to study the effects of these factors on the stock prices. The model obtained accurately describes the general trends in the AAPL and XOM stock price changes over the last ten years.

Transition from lognormal to χ2-superstatistics for financial time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Dan; Beck, Christian

2016-07-01

Share price returns on different time scales can be well modelled by a superstatistical dynamics. Here we provide an investigation which type of superstatistics is most suitable to properly describe share price dynamics on various time scales. It is shown that while χ2-superstatistics works well on a time scale of days, on a much smaller time scale of minutes the price changes are better described by lognormal superstatistics. The system dynamics thus exhibits a transition from lognormal to χ2 superstatistics as a function of time scale. We discuss a more general model interpolating between both statistics which fits the observed data very well. We also present results on correlation functions of the extracted superstatistical volatility parameter, which exhibits exponential decay for returns on large time scales, whereas for returns on small time scales there are long-range correlations and power-law decay.

The European style arithmetic Asian option pricing with stochastic interest rate based on Black Scholes model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winarti, Yuyun Guna; Noviyanti, Lienda; Setyanto, Gatot R.

2017-03-01

The stock investment is a high risk investment. Therefore, there are derivative securities to reduce these risks. One of them is Asian option. The most fundamental of option is option pricing. Many factors that determine the option price are underlying asset price, strike price, maturity date, volatility, risk free interest rate and dividends. Various option pricing usually assume that risk free interest rate is constant. While in reality, this factor is stochastic process. The arithmetic Asian option is free from distribution, then, its pricing is done using the modified Black-Scholes model. In this research, the modification use the Curran approximation. This research focuses on the arithmetic Asian option pricing without dividends. The data used is the stock daily closing data of Telkom from January 1 2016 to June 30 2016. Finnaly, those option price can be used as an option trading strategy.

Deregulating electricity in the American states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terbush, Thomas Lee

This dissertation develops nine stylized facts that summarize the major consequences of deregulation and tests these against recent experience in the electric utility industry. The experience of the electric utility industry matches the predictions of the stylized facts, except in one instance: although real electricity prices fell between 1982 and 1999, real prices fell less in states that deregulated. This dissertation presents three possible explanations for this discrepancy. First, through dynamic efficiency, consumers may benefit in the long run through lower rates and better service in the electricity market, or deregulation may be a public good that benefits electricity consumers through economy-wide improvements in efficiency. Second, higher prices may be a long-run outcome as predicted by the theory of the second best. Or third, both regulators and utilities may use deregulation to generate new rents. Because the original rents from regulation had dissipated, new rents could be generated under deregulation by making consumers pay off the utilities and then creating more new rents through re-regulation of the industry. Close examination tends to support the first and third explanations, although the second-best explanation cannot yet be ruled out completely. Higher prices appear to be a transitional phenomenon, resulting from a short-term payoff from consumers to incumbent utilities that was required to move deregulation forward. This payoff occurs as residential and commercial consumers bear relatively higher rates over three to five years to compensate utilities for stranded costs, investments thought to be unrecoverable under full competition. All states are benefiting from deregulation, but states that are deregulating are benefiting less while stranded costs are being recovered. This dissertation also examines California electricity deregulation and finds that the experience in California conforms with to the stylized facts, and that certain structural, demand and supply factors caused the electricity crisis in 2000 and 2001. The most important factor was the disallowance of long-term contracts and other instruments for shedding price risk, which discouraged the construction of new generating plants.

The compass rose pattern in electricity prices.

PubMed

Batten, Jonathan A; Hamada, Mahmoud

2009-12-01

The "compass rose pattern" is known to appear in the phase portraits, or scatter diagrams, of the high-frequency returns of financial series. We first show that this pattern is also present in the returns of spot electricity prices. Early researchers investigating these phenomena hoped that these patterns signaled the presence of rich dynamics, possibly chaotic or fractal in nature. Although there is a definite autoregressive and conditional heteroscedasticity structure in electricity returns, we find that after simple filtering no pattern remains. While the series is non-normal in terms of their distribution and statistical tests fail to identify significant chaos, there is evidence of fractal structures in periodic price returns when measured over the trading day. The phase diagram of the filtered returns provides a useful visual check on independence, a property necessary for pricing and trading derivatives and portfolio construction, as well as providing useful insights into the market dynamics.

Preliminary Study on Bidding Price Ratio Pattern of Public Works in Taiwan - a Case Study of Bridges, Elevated Highways, Tunnels and Subways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, Paoshan; Wang, Hanhsiang; Chen, Pingfu; Yeh, Lihsu

2018-01-01

Commonly seen tender bid price information of the public works in Taiwan are the budget amount, floor price, awarding price and so on. The ratio of the awarding price to the floor price or budget price is the so-called bidding price ratio. This ratio is influenced by multifaceted factor interactions and is significant to decision making management in engineering projects. Low bidding price ratio may imply that the budget allocation by the tendering agency is inconsiderate or due to the improper market competition of low price bid rigging. High bidding price ratio in turn may indicate that the allocated budget is relatively low, bidder risks in increased contract execution uncertainty or even exclusive bidding scenario. Therefore, the correlation between the bidding price ratio and the aforementioned tender award information is the key issue of this study. This study gathered the tender information of the civil engineering projects in Taiwan within the past seven years. By performing statistical analysis and clustering the gathered data by bidding price ratio, this study investigated the influencing factors and regulations of bidding price ratio using data mining approach.

Price trend analysis and its implications for the development of new medical technologies.

PubMed

Brown, Alan; Meenan, Brian J; Young, Terry P

2007-01-01

It is assumed that a company will only develop a new medical technology if it has evidence that it will provide returns that are greater than the investment required to develop that technology and bring it to the market. The price that can be commanded for the new products and the volumes of the products that are sold determine, in large measure, the returns that will be made on the initial investment. Estimating the sales volumes and prices of products are critical factors in decision making during product development. Once in the market prices are not static. Rather they are affected by a range of factors. This paper considers the effect that market experience, represented by cumulative volume of sales, has on prices. How quickly the price declines in response to experience is dependent on a number of factors. How price trends from products already in the market can be used to inform investment decisions of new products and technologies is described.

Factors influencing global antiretroviral procurement prices

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Antiretroviral medicines (ARVs) are one of the most costly parts of HIV/AIDS treatment. Many countries are struggling to provide universal access to ARVs for all people living with HIV and AIDS. Although substantial price reductions of ARVs have occurred, especially between 2002 and 2008, achieving sustainable access for the next several decades remains a major challenge for most low- and middle-income countries. The objectives of the present study were twofold: first, to analyze global ARV prices between 2005 and 2008 and associated factors, particularly procurement methods and key donor policies on ARV procurement efficiency; second, to discuss the options of procurement processes and policies that should be considered when implementing or reforming access to ARV programs. Methods An ARV-medicines price-analysis was carried out using the Global Price Reporting Mechanism from the World Health Organization. For a selection of 12 ARVs, global median prices and price variation were calculated. Linear regression models for each ARV were used to identify factors that were associated with lower procurement prices. Logistic regression models were used to identify the characteristics of those countries which procure below the highest and lowest direct manufactured costs. Results Three key factors appear to have an influence on a country's ARV prices: (a) whether the product is generic or not; (b) the socioeconomic status of the country; (c) whether the country is a member of the Clinton HIV/AIDS Initiative. Factors which did not influence procurement below the highest direct manufactured costs were HIV prevalence, procurement volume, whether the country belongs to the least developed countries or a focus country of the United States President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief. Conclusion One of the principal mechanisms that can help to lower prices for ARV over the next several decades is increasing procurement efficiency. Benchmarking prices could be one useful tool to achieve this. PMID:19922690

Conditional dynamics driving financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boguñá, M.; Masoliver, J.

2004-08-01

We revisit the problem of daily correlations in speculative prices and report empirical evidences on the existence of what we term a conditional or dual dynamics driving the evolution of financial assets. This dynamics is detected in several markets around the world and for different historical periods. In particular, we have analyzed the DJIA database from 1900 to 2002 as well as 65 companies trading in the LIFFE market of futures and 12 of the major European and American treasury bonds. In all cases, we find a twofold dynamics driving the financial evolution depending on whether the previous price went up or down. We conjecture that this effect is universal and intrinsic to all markets.

77 FR 63324 - Notice of Certain Operating Cost Adjustment Factors for 2013

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-16

...: Energy Information Agency, Natural Gas, Residential Energy Price, 2010-2011 annual prices in dollars per.... The best current price data sources for the nine cost categories were used in calculating annual change factors. State-level data for fuel oil, electricity, and natural gas from Department of Energy...

Study and Simulation on Dynamics of a Risk-Averse Supply Chain Pricing Model with Dual-Channel and Incomplete Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Lijian; Ma, Junhai

Under the industrial background of dual-channel, volatility in demand of consumers, we use the theory of bifurcations and numerical simulation tools to investigate the dynamic pricing game in a dual-channel supply chain with risk-averse behavior and incomplete information. Due to volatility of demand of consumers, we consider all the players in the supply chain are risk-averse. We assume there exist Bertrand game and Manufacturers’ Stackelberg in the chain which are closer to reality. The main objective of the paper is to investigate the complex influence of the decision parameters such as wholesale price adjustment speed, risk preference and service value on stability of the risk-averse supply chain and average utilities of all the players. We lay emphasis on the influence of chaos on average utilities of all the players which did not appear in previous studies. The dynamic phenomena, such as the bifurcation, chaos and sensitivity to initial values are analyzed by 2D bifurcation phase portraits, Double Largest Lyapunov exponent, basins of attraction and so on. The study shows that the manufacturers should slow down their wholesale price adjustment speed to get more utilities, if the manufacturers are willing to take on more risk, they will get more profits, but they must keep their wholesale prices in a certain range in order to maintain the market stability.

Financial Knudsen number: Breakdown of continuous price dynamics and asymmetric buy-and-sell structures confirmed by high-precision order-book information.

PubMed

Yura, Yoshihiro; Takayasu, Hideki; Sornette, Didier; Takayasu, Misako

2015-10-01

We generalize the description of the dynamics of the order book of financial markets in terms of a Brownian particle embedded in a fluid of incoming, exiting, and annihilating particles by presenting a model of the velocity on each side (buy and sell) independently. The improved model builds on the time-averaged number of particles in the inner layer and its change per unit time, where the inner layer is revealed by the correlations between price velocity and change in the number of particles (limit orders). This allows us to introduce the Knudsen number of the financial Brownian particle motion and its asymmetric version (on the buy and sell sides). Not being considered previously, the asymmetric Knudsen numbers are crucial in finance in order to detect asymmetric price changes. The Knudsen numbers allows us to characterize the conditions for the market dynamics to be correctly described by a continuous stochastic process. Not questioned until now for large liquid markets such as the USD-JPY and EUR-USD exchange rates, we show that there are regimes when the Knudsen numbers are so high that discrete particle effects dominate, such as during market stresses and crashes. We document the presence of imbalances of particles depletion rates on the buy and sell sides that are associated with high Knudsen numbers and violent directional price changes. This indicator can detect the direction of the price motion at the early stage while the usual volatility risk measure is blind to the price direction.

Financial Knudsen number: Breakdown of continuous price dynamics and asymmetric buy-and-sell structures confirmed by high-precision order-book information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yura, Yoshihiro; Takayasu, Hideki; Sornette, Didier; Takayasu, Misako

2015-10-01

We generalize the description of the dynamics of the order book of financial markets in terms of a Brownian particle embedded in a fluid of incoming, exiting, and annihilating particles by presenting a model of the velocity on each side (buy and sell) independently. The improved model builds on the time-averaged number of particles in the inner layer and its change per unit time, where the inner layer is revealed by the correlations between price velocity and change in the number of particles (limit orders). This allows us to introduce the Knudsen number of the financial Brownian particle motion and its asymmetric version (on the buy and sell sides). Not being considered previously, the asymmetric Knudsen numbers are crucial in finance in order to detect asymmetric price changes. The Knudsen numbers allows us to characterize the conditions for the market dynamics to be correctly described by a continuous stochastic process. Not questioned until now for large liquid markets such as the USD-JPY and EUR-USD exchange rates, we show that there are regimes when the Knudsen numbers are so high that discrete particle effects dominate, such as during market stresses and crashes. We document the presence of imbalances of particles depletion rates on the buy and sell sides that are associated with high Knudsen numbers and violent directional price changes. This indicator can detect the direction of the price motion at the early stage while the usual volatility risk measure is blind to the price direction.

Statistical Properties and Pre-Hit Dynamics of Price Limit Hits in the Chinese Stock Markets

PubMed Central

Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2015-01-01

Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders’ short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners. PMID:25874716

Multi-factor energy price models and exotic derivatives pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hikspoors, Samuel

The high pace at which many of the world's energy markets have gradually been opened to competition have generated a significant amount of new financial activity. Both academicians and practitioners alike recently started to develop the tools of energy derivatives pricing/hedging as a quantitative topic of its own. The energy contract structures as well as their underlying asset properties set the energy risk management industry apart from its more standard equity and fixed income counterparts. This thesis naturally contributes to these broad market developments in participating to the advances of the mathematical tools aiming at a better theory of energy contingent claim pricing/hedging. We propose many realistic two-factor and three-factor models for spot and forward price processes that generalize some well known and standard modeling assumptions. We develop the associated pricing methodologies and propose stable calibration algorithms that motivate the application of the relevant modeling schemes.

Real Time Pricing as a Default or Optional Service for C&ICustomers: A Comparative Analysis of Eight Case Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit

Demand response (DR) has been broadly recognized to be an integral component of well-functioning electricity markets, although currently underdeveloped in most regions. Among the various initiatives undertaken to remedy this deficiency, public utility commissions (PUC) and utilities have considered implementing dynamic pricing tariffs, such as real-time pricing (RTP), and other retail pricing mechanisms that communicate an incentive for electricity consumers to reduce their usage during periods of high generation supply costs or system reliability contingencies. Efforts to introduce DR into retail electricity markets confront a range of basic policy issues. First, a fundamental issue in any market context is howmore » to organize the process for developing and implementing DR mechanisms in a manner that facilitates productive participation by affected stakeholder groups. Second, in regions with retail choice, policymakers and stakeholders face the threshold question of whether it is appropriate for utilities to offer a range of dynamic pricing tariffs and DR programs, or just ''plain vanilla'' default service. Although positions on this issue may be based primarily on principle, two empirical questions may have some bearing--namely, what level of price response can be expected through the competitive retail market, and whether establishing RTP as the default service is likely to result in an appreciable level of DR? Third, if utilities are to have a direct role in developing DR, what types of retail pricing mechanisms are most appropriate and likely to have the desired policy impact (e.g., RTP, other dynamic pricing options, DR programs, or some combination)? Given a decision to develop utility RTP tariffs, three basic implementation issues require attention. First, should it be a default or optional tariff, and for which customer classes? Second, what types of tariff design is most appropriate, given prevailing policy objectives, wholesale market structure, ratemaking practices and standards, and customer preferences? Third, if a primary goal for RTP implementation is to induce DR, what types of supplemental activities are warranted to support customer participation and price response (e.g., interval metering deployment, customer education, and technical assistance)?« less

Spatial competition and price formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagel, Kai; Shubik, Martin; Paczuski, Maya; Bak, Per

2000-12-01

We look at price formation in a retail setting, that is, companies set prices, and consumers either accept prices or go someplace else. In contrast to most other models in this context, we use a two-dimensional spatial structure for information transmission, that is, consumers can only learn from nearest neighbors. Many aspects of this can be understood in terms of generalized evolutionary dynamics. In consequence, we first look at spatial competition and cluster formation without price. This leads to establishement size distributions, which we compare to reality. After some theoretical considerations, which at least heuristically explain our simulation results, we finally return to price formation, where we demonstrate that our simple model with nearly no organized planning or rationality on the part of any of the agents indeed leads to an economically plausible price.

A note on the theory of fast money flow dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, A.; Kieu, T.; Melatos, A.

2010-08-01

The gauge theory of arbitrage was introduced by Ilinski in [K. Ilinski, preprint arXiv:hep-th/9710148 (1997)] and applied to fast money flows in [A. Ilinskaia, K. Ilinski, preprint arXiv:cond-mat/9902044 (1999); K. Ilinski, Physics of finance: gauge modelling in non-equilibrium pricing (Wiley, 2001)]. The theory of fast money flow dynamics attempts to model the evolution of currency exchange rates and stock prices on short, e.g. intra-day, time scales. It has been used to explain some of the heuristic trading rules, known as technical analysis, that are used by professional traders in the equity and foreign exchange markets. A critique of some of the underlying assumptions of the gauge theory of arbitrage was presented by Sornette in [D. Sornette, Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 9, 505 (1998)]. In this paper, we present a critique of the theory of fast money flow dynamics, which was not examined by Sornette. We demonstrate that the choice of the input parameters used in [K. Ilinski, Physics of finance: gauge modelling in non-equilibrium pricing (Wiley, 2001)] results in sinusoidal oscillations of the exchange rate, in conflict with the results presented in [K. Ilinski, Physics of finance: gauge modelling in non-equilibrium pricing (Wiley, 2001)]. We also find that the dynamics predicted by the theory are generally unstable in most realistic situations, with the exchange rate tending to zero or infinity exponentially.

Gold, currencies and market efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristoufek, Ladislav; Vosvrda, Miloslav

2016-05-01

Gold and currency markets form a unique pair with specific interactions and dynamics. We focus on the efficiency ranking of gold markets with respect to the currency of purchase. By utilizing the Efficiency Index (EI) based on fractal dimension, approximate entropy and long-term memory on a wide portfolio of 142 gold price series for different currencies, we construct the efficiency ranking based on the extended EI methodology we provide. Rather unexpected results are uncovered as the gold prices in major currencies lay among the least efficient ones whereas very minor currencies are among the most efficient ones. We argue that such counterintuitive results can be partly attributed to a unique period of examination (2011-2014) characteristic by quantitative easing and rather unorthodox monetary policies together with the investigated illegal collusion of major foreign exchange market participants, as well as some other factors discussed in some detail.

How Volatilities Nonlocal in Time Affect the Price Dynamics in Complex Financial Systems

PubMed Central

Tan, Lei; Zheng, Bo; Chen, Jun-Jie; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

2015-01-01

What is the dominating mechanism of the price dynamics in financial systems is of great interest to scientists. The problem whether and how volatilities affect the price movement draws much attention. Although many efforts have been made, it remains challenging. Physicists usually apply the concepts and methods in statistical physics, such as temporal correlation functions, to study financial dynamics. However, the usual volatility-return correlation function, which is local in time, typically fluctuates around zero. Here we construct dynamic observables nonlocal in time to explore the volatility-return correlation, based on the empirical data of hundreds of individual stocks and 25 stock market indices in different countries. Strikingly, the correlation is discovered to be non-zero, with an amplitude of a few percent and a duration of over two weeks. This result provides compelling evidence that past volatilities nonlocal in time affect future returns. Further, we introduce an agent-based model with a novel mechanism, that is, the asymmetric trading preference in volatile and stable markets, to understand the microscopic origin of the volatility-return correlation nonlocal in time. PMID:25723154

A Bayesian Multi-Level Factor Analytic Model of Consumer Price Sensitivities across Categories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duvvuri, Sri Devi; Gruca, Thomas S.

2010-01-01

Identifying price sensitive consumers is an important problem in marketing. We develop a Bayesian multi-level factor analytic model of the covariation among household-level price sensitivities across product categories that are substitutes. Based on a multivariate probit model of category incidence, this framework also allows the researcher to…

[Exploration of influencing factors of price of herbal based on VAR model].

PubMed

Wang, Nuo; Liu, Shu-Zhen; Yang, Guang

2014-10-01

Based on vector auto-regression (VAR) model, this paper takes advantage of Granger causality test, variance decomposition and impulse response analysis techniques to carry out a comprehensive study of the factors influencing the price of Chinese herbal, including herbal cultivation costs, acreage, natural disasters, the residents' needs and inflation. The study found that there is Granger causality relationship between inflation and herbal prices, cultivation costs and herbal prices. And in the total variance analysis of Chinese herbal and medicine price index, the largest contribution to it is from its own fluctuations, followed by the cultivation costs and inflation.

Impacts of demand response and renewable generation in electricity power market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Zhechong

This thesis presents the objective of the research which is to analyze the impacts of uncertain wind power and demand response on power systems operation and power market clearing. First, in order to effectively utilize available wind generation, it is usually given the highest priority by assigning zero or negative energy bidding prices when clearing the day-ahead electric power market. However, when congestion occurs, negative wind bidding prices would aggravate locational marginal prices (LMPs) to be negative in certain locations. A load shifting model is explored to alleviate possible congestions and enhance the utilization of wind generation, by shifting proper amount of load from peak hours to off peaks. The problem is to determine proper amount of load to be shifted, for enhancing the utilization of wind generation, alleviating transmission congestions, and making LMPs to be non-negative values. The second piece of work considered the price-based demand response (DR) program which is a mechanism for electricity consumers to dynamically manage their energy consumption in response to time-varying electricity prices. It encourages consumers to reduce their energy consumption when electricity prices are high, and thereby reduce the peak electricity demand and alleviate the pressure to power systems. However, it brings additional dynamics and new challenges on the real-time supply and demand balance. Specifically, price-sensitive DR load levels are constantly changing in response to dynamic real-time electricity prices, which will impact the economic dispatch (ED) schedule and in turn affect electricity market clearing prices. This thesis adopts two methods for examining the impacts of different DR price elasticity characteristics on the stability performance: a closed-loop iterative simulation method and a non-iterative method based on the contraction mapping theorem. This thesis also analyzes the financial stability of DR load consumers, by incorporating explicit LMP formulations and consumer payment requirements into the network-constrained unit commitment (NCUC) problem. The proposed model determines the proper amount of DR loads to be shifted from peak hours to off-peaks under ISO's direct load control, for reducing the operation cost and ensuring that consumer payments of DR loads will not deteriorate significantly after load shifting. Both MINLP and MILP models are discussed, and improved formulation strategies are presented.

Numerical methods on European option second order asymptotic expansions for multiscale stochastic volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canhanga, Betuel; Ni, Ying; Rančić, Milica; Malyarenko, Anatoliy; Silvestrov, Sergei

2017-01-01

After Black-Scholes proposed a model for pricing European Options in 1973, Cox, Ross and Rubinstein in 1979, and Heston in 1993, showed that the constant volatility assumption made by Black-Scholes was one of the main reasons for the model to be unable to capture some market details. Instead of constant volatilities, they introduced stochastic volatilities to the asset dynamic modeling. In 2009, Christoffersen empirically showed "why multifactor stochastic volatility models work so well". Four years later, Chiarella and Ziveyi solved the model proposed by Christoffersen. They considered an underlying asset whose price is governed by two factor stochastic volatilities of mean reversion type. Applying Fourier transforms, Laplace transforms and the method of characteristics they presented a semi-analytical formula to compute an approximate price for American options. The huge calculation involved in the Chiarella and Ziveyi approach motivated the authors of this paper in 2014 to investigate another methodology to compute European Option prices on a Christoffersen type model. Using the first and second order asymptotic expansion method we presented a closed form solution for European option, and provided experimental and numerical studies on investigating the accuracy of the approximation formulae given by the first order asymptotic expansion. In the present paper we will perform experimental and numerical studies for the second order asymptotic expansion and compare the obtained results with results presented by Chiarella and Ziveyi.

A non-Gaussian option pricing model based on Kaniadakis exponential deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moretto, Enrico; Pasquali, Sara; Trivellato, Barbara

2017-09-01

A way to make financial models effective is by letting them to represent the so called "fat tails", i.e., extreme changes in stock prices that are regarded as almost impossible by the standard Gaussian distribution. In this article, the Kaniadakis deformation of the usual exponential function is used to define a random noise source in the dynamics of price processes capable of capturing such real market phenomena.

The mismatch between conventional house price modeling and regulated markets: insights from The Netherlands.

PubMed

Tu, Qi; de Haan, Jan; Boelhouwer, Peter

2017-01-01

House price modeling has been frequently used to investigate the dynamics of housing markets, especially competitive markets; yet less attention has been given to markets that have experienced considerable interventions. The aim of this study is to demonstrate a mismatch between conventional house price models and the case of the Netherlands and to provide reasons of such mismatch. We first describe and classify the conventional house price models into asset-pricing house price model, stock-flow model, multi-period utility model, and repayment model. These models are subsequently applied to the Netherlands, where considerable government interventions took place. As expected, the empirical results are unsatisfactory to explain the Dutch house price development. The degree of mismatch of the repayment model and the multi-period utility model, however, seems to be fairly limited.

Analysis of Commercial Pricing Factors: A Framework for Commercial Item Pricing

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-03-01

24 A. INTRODUCTION ...................................24 B. PRICING THEORIES ...............................25 1. Market Theory ...25 2. Transactional Cost Economics .................30 3. Game or Bargaining Theory ....................35 C. CURRENT PRICE...from Congressional intent to have the Government acquisition process rely on market forces to determine fair and reasonable prices. (Ref. 22, p. 2

[The aspects of pricing policy in Azerbaijan pharmaceutical sector].

PubMed

Dzhalilova, K I; Alieva, K Ia

2012-01-01

The effect of macro-, middle- and microeconomic factors on price formation in Azerbaijan pharmaceutical market has been studied. Worldwide pharmaceutical leaders have the goals to become leader on the pharmaceutical market of Azerbaijan and maximize their market share. Non-leaders pharmaceutical companies use different strategies of price formation: prime cost plus markup, or price formation on the base of current prices. It was revealed that domestic pharmaceutical market has high demand elasticity. Future market development is related to stimulation of product development, and hard penetration to the market through realization of price formation strategy. Non-state pharmaceutical organizations to achieve the purpose of survive in conditions of high competition should take in to account the factor perceptions of assortment by customers.

7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

..., rounded to the nearest cent, shall be the protein price per pound times 3.1 plus the other solids price...) Multiply the protein price computed in paragraph (q)(1)(i) of this section by 3.1; (iii) Multiply the other... multiply the result by 1.383; (3) Add to the amount computed pursuant to paragraph (n)(2) of this section...

7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

..., rounded to the nearest cent, shall be the protein price per pound times 3.1 plus the other solids price...) Multiply the protein price computed in paragraph (q)(1)(i) of this section by 3.1; (iii) Multiply the other... multiply the result by 1.383; (3) Add to the amount computed pursuant to paragraph (n)(2) of this section...

41 CFR 102-73.125 - How much of a price preference must Federal agencies give when acquiring leased space using the...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... permits tradeoffs among price and non-price factors, the Government will give a price evaluation... is offered or remains in the competition, the Government will give a 2.5 percent price preference to... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false How much of a price...

Dynamics of electricity market correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Escarela-Perez, R.; Espinosa-Perez, G.; Urrea, R.

2009-06-01

Electricity market participants rely on demand and price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate assets, negotiate bilateral contracts, hedge risks, and plan facility investments. However, forecasting is hampered by the non-linear and stochastic nature of price time series. Diverse modeling strategies, from neural networks to traditional transfer functions, have been explored. These approaches are based on the assumption that price series contain correlations that can be exploited for model-based prediction purposes. While many works have been devoted to the demand and price modeling, a limited number of reports on the nature and dynamics of electricity market correlations are available. This paper uses detrended fluctuation analysis to study correlations in the demand and price time series and takes the Australian market as a case study. The results show the existence of correlations in both demand and prices over three orders of magnitude in time ranging from hours to months. However, the Hurst exponent is not constant over time, and its time evolution was computed over a subsample moving window of 250 observations. The computations, also made for two Canadian markets, show that the correlations present important fluctuations over a seasonal one-year cycle. Interestingly, non-linearities (measured in terms of a multifractality index) and reduced price predictability are found for the June-July periods, while the converse behavior is displayed during the December-January period. In terms of forecasting models, our results suggest that non-linear recursive models should be considered for accurate day-ahead price estimation. On the other hand, linear models seem to suffice for demand forecasting purposes.

Efficient dynamic scarcity pricing in urban water supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Rougé, Charles; Harou, Julien J.; Escriva-Bou, Alvar

2017-04-01

Water pricing is a key instrument for water demand management. Despite the variety of existing strategies for urban water pricing, urban water rates are often far from reflecting the real value of the resource, which increases with water scarcity. Current water rates do not bring any incentive to reduce water use in water scarcity periods, since they do not send any signal to the users of water scarcity. In California, the recent drought has spurred the implementation of drought surcharges and penalties to reduce residential water use, although it is not a common practice yet. In Europe, the EU Water Framework Directive calls for the implementation of new pricing policies that assure the contribution of water users to the recovery of the cost of water services (financial instrument) while providing adequate incentives for an efficient use of water (economic instrument). Not only financial costs should be recovered but also environmental and resource (opportunity) costs. A dynamic pricing policy is efficient if the prices charged correspond to the marginal economic value of water, which increases with water scarcity and is determined by the value of water for all alternative uses in the basin. Therefore, in the absence of efficient water markets, measuring the opportunity costs of scarce water can only be achieved through an integrated basin-wide hydroeconomic simulation approach. The objective of this work is to design a dynamic water rate for urban water supply accounting for the seasonal marginal value of water in the basin, related to water scarcity. The dynamic pricing policy would send to the users a signal of the economic value of the resource when water is scarce, therefore promoting more efficient water use. The water rate is also designed to simultaneously meet the expected basic requirements for water tariffs: revenue sufficiency (cost recovery) and neutrality, equity and affordability, simplicity and efficiency. A dynamic increasing block rate (IBR) tariff is designed, including a variable charge related to the scarcity value of water in the basin. The new tariff would encourage water conservation, providing more incentives with great water scarcity. The approach is applied to the supply to the city of Valencia with water resources from the Jucar river basin, a drought-prone Mediterranean basin in Eastern Spain that constitutes a good case for testing this policy. Our results demonstrate the potential of integrating the marginal value of water in the urban water tariffs, with water savings reaching up to 30% during scarcity conditions with respect to the baseline urban water tariffs.

Dynamical analogy between economical crisis and earthquake dynamics within the nonextensive statistical mechanics framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potirakis, Stelios M.; Zitis, Pavlos I.; Eftaxias, Konstantinos

2013-07-01

The field of study of complex systems considers that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may be used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural, artificial, and social systems. Several authors have suggested that earthquake dynamics and the dynamics of economic (financial) systems can be analyzed within similar mathematical frameworks. We apply concepts of the nonextensive statistical physics, on time-series data of observable manifestations of the underlying complex processes ending up with these different extreme events, in order to support the suggestion that a dynamical analogy exists between a financial crisis (in the form of share or index price collapse) and a single earthquake. We also investigate the existence of such an analogy by means of scale-free statistics (the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of event sizes). We show that the populations of: (i) fracto-electromagnetic events rooted in the activation of a single fault, emerging prior to a significant earthquake, (ii) the trade volume events of different shares/economic indices, prior to a collapse, and (iii) the price fluctuation (considered as the difference of maximum minus minimum price within a day) events of different shares/economic indices, prior to a collapse, follow both the traditional Gutenberg-Richter law as well as a nonextensive model for earthquake dynamics, with similar parameter values. The obtained results imply the existence of a dynamic analogy between earthquakes and economic crises, which moreover follow the dynamics of seizures, magnetic storms and solar flares.

Impact of energy prices on agricultural and energy markets: an integrated modeling approach

EPA Science Inventory

The accelerated growth in biofuels markets has both created and reinforced linkages between agricultural and energy markets. This study investigates the dynamics in biofuel and agricultural markets under alternative price scenarios for both crude oil and natural gas. Two energy ...

Financial Symmetry and Moods in the Market

PubMed Central

Savona, Roberto; Soumare, Maxence; Andersen, Jørgen Vitting

2015-01-01

This paper studies how certain speculative transitions in financial markets can be ascribed to a symmetry break that happens in the collective decision making. Investors are assumed to be bounded rational, using a limited set of information including past price history and expectation on future dividends. Investment strategies are dynamically changed based on realized returns within a game theoretical scheme with Nash equilibria. In such a setting, markets behave as complex systems whose payoff reflect an intrinsic financial symmetry that guarantees equilibrium in price dynamics (fundamentalist state) until the symmetry is broken leading to bubble or anti-bubble scenarios (speculative state). We model such two-phase transition in a micro-to-macro scheme through a Ginzburg-Landau-based power expansion leading to a market temperature parameter which modulates the state transitions in the market. Via simulations we prove that transitions in the market price dynamics can be phenomenologically explained by the number of traders, the number of strategies and amount of information used by agents, all included in our market temperature parameter. PMID:25856392

Financial symmetry and moods in the market.

PubMed

Savona, Roberto; Soumare, Maxence; Andersen, Jørgen Vitting

2015-01-01

This paper studies how certain speculative transitions in financial markets can be ascribed to a symmetry break that happens in the collective decision making. Investors are assumed to be bounded rational, using a limited set of information including past price history and expectation on future dividends. Investment strategies are dynamically changed based on realized returns within a game theoretical scheme with Nash equilibria. In such a setting, markets behave as complex systems whose payoff reflect an intrinsic financial symmetry that guarantees equilibrium in price dynamics (fundamentalist state) until the symmetry is broken leading to bubble or anti-bubble scenarios (speculative state). We model such two-phase transition in a micro-to-macro scheme through a Ginzburg-Landau-based power expansion leading to a market temperature parameter which modulates the state transitions in the market. Via simulations we prove that transitions in the market price dynamics can be phenomenologically explained by the number of traders, the number of strategies and amount of information used by agents, all included in our market temperature parameter.

The dynamics of stock exchange based on the formalism of weak continuous quantum measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melnyk, S.; Tuluzov, I.

2010-07-01

The problem of measurement in economic models and the possibility of their quantum-mechanical description are considered. It is revealed that the apparent paradox of such a description is associated with a priori requirement of conformity of the model to all the alternatives of free choice of the observer. The measurement of the state of a trader on a stock exchange is formally defined as his responses to the proposals of sale at a fixed price. It is shown that an analogue of Bell's inequalities for this measurement model is violated at the most general assumptions related to the strategy of the trader and requires a quantum-mechanical description of the dynamics of his condition. In the framework of the theory of weak continuous quantum measurements, the equation of stock price dynamics and the quantum-mechanical generalization of the F. Black and M. Scholes model for pricing options are obtained. The fundamental distinctions between the obtained model and the classical one are discussed.

Chicago's water market: Dynamics of demand, prices and scarcity rents

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ipe, V.C.; Bhagwat, S.B.

2002-01-01

Chicago and its suburbs are experiencing an increasing demand for water from a growing population and economy and may experience water scarcity in the near future. The Chicago metropolitan area has nearly depleted its groundwater resources to a point where interstate conflicts with Wisconsin could accompany an increased reliance on those sources. Further, the withdrawals from Lake Michigan is limited by the Supreme Court decree. The growing demand and indications of possible scarcity suggest a need to reexamine the pricing policies and the dynamics of demand. The study analyses the demand for water and develops estimates of scarcity rents for water in Chicago. The price and income elasticities computed at the means are -0.002 and 0.0002 respectively. The estimated scarcity rents ranges from $0.98 to $1.17 per thousand gallons. The results indicate that the current prices do not fully account for the scarcity rents and suggest a current rate with in the range $1.53 to $1.72 per thousand gallons.

From Walras’ auctioneer to continuous time double auctions: a general dynamic theory of supply and demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donier, J.; Bouchaud, J.-P.

2016-12-01

In standard Walrasian auctions, the price of a good is defined as the point where the supply and demand curves intersect. Since both curves are generically regular, the response to small perturbations is linearly small. However, a crucial ingredient is absent of the theory, namely transactions themselves. What happens after they occur? To answer the question, we develop a dynamic theory for supply and demand based on agents with heterogeneous beliefs. When the inter-auction time is infinitely long, the Walrasian mechanism is recovered. When transactions are allowed to happen in continuous time, a peculiar property emerges: close to the price, supply and demand vanish quadratically, which we empirically confirm on the Bitcoin. This explains why price impact in financial markets is universally observed to behave as the square root of the excess volume. The consequences are important, as they imply that the very fact of clearing the market makes prices hypersensitive to small fluctuations.

Differences in price elasticities of demand for health insurance: a systematic review.

PubMed

Pendzialek, Jonas B; Simic, Dusan; Stock, Stephanie

2016-01-01

Many health insurance systems apply managed competition principles to control costs and quality of health care. Besides other factors, managed competition relies on a sufficient price-elastic demand. This paper presents a systematic review of empirical studies on price elasticity of demand for health insurance. The objective was to identify the differing international ranges of price elasticity and to find socio-economic as well as setting-oriented factors that influence price elasticity. Relevant literature for the topic was identified through a two-step identification process including a systematic search in appropriate databases and further searches within the references of the results. A total of 45 studies from countries such as the USA, Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland were found. Clear differences in price elasticity by countries were identified. While empirical studies showed a range between -0.2 and -1.0 for optional primary health insurance in the US, higher price elasticities between -0.6 and -4.2 for Germany and around -2 for Switzerland were calculated for mandatory primary health insurance. Dutch studies found price elasticities below -0.5. In consideration of all relevant studies, age and poorer health status were identified to decrease price elasticity. Other socio-economic factors had an unclear impact or too limited evidence. Premium level, range of premiums, homogeneity of benefits/coverage and degree of forced decision were found to have a major influence on price elasticity in their settings. Further influence was found from supplementary insurance and premium-dependent employer contribution.

Changing the Graduate Medical Education Funding Path to Reduce the Price of Health Care Services.

PubMed

Martin, Ralph A

2015-01-01

An analysis of the current Graduate Medical Education (GME) funding stream reveals undesired aspects that limit the number of graduates and may tend to raise the price of health care services. The author shows that a different model of GME funding changes the economic dynamics and takes advantage of economic forces to increase the supply of graduates, while potentially reducing the price of health care services.

Socioeconophysics:. Opinion Dynamics for Number of Transactions and Price, a Trader Based Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuncay, Çağlar

Involving effects of media, opinion leader and other agents on the opinion of individuals of market society, a trader based model is developed and utilized to simulate price via supply and demand. Pronounced effects are considered with several weights and some personal differences between traders are taken into account. Resulting time series and probabilty distribution function involving a power law for price come out similar to the real ones.

The impact of oil price on Malaysian sector indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Luan, Yeap Pei; Ee, Ong Joo

2015-12-01

In this paper, vector error correction model (VECM) has been utilized to model the dynamic relationships between world crude oil price and the sector indices of Malaysia. The sector indices have been collected are covering the period Jan 1998 to Dec 2013. Surprisingly, our investigations show that oil price changes do not Granger-cause any of the sectors in all of Malaysia. However, sector indices of Food Producer and Utilities are found to be the cause of the changes in world crude oil prices. Furthermore, from the results of variance decomposition, very high percentage of shocks is explained by world crude oil price itself over the 12 months and small impact from other sector indices.

Do market components account for higher US prescription prices?

PubMed

Monaghan, M J; Monaghan, M S

1996-12-01

Although only 7-8% of US healthcare expenditures are spent on prescription drug products, the pharmaceutical industry's profitability and high cost of prescriptions to consumers make prescription drugs a visible target for reform. When compared with other products, it appears as if unfair pricing tactics are used. The pharmaceutical industry cites costs of research and development and a short patent life as justifiable grounds for high prices, but the reason why US drug prices appear to be so high has yet to be answered. To examine identified components of the pharmaceutical industry that allow US prescription drugs to appear to be highly priced and to review the apparent factors that affect pricing policies for pharmaceuticals. The literature was reviewed to identify current research regarding the pharmaceutical market. Sources included MEDLINE, Econolit, Business Periodical Index, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and the F-D-C Pink Sheet. Key factors account for the fact that US prescription drug prices are higher and that price discrimination occurs in the pharmaceutical industry within the US and among other countries. These factors include the unique market structure of the pharmaceutical industry, asymmetry of information, research and development costs, numerous channels of distribution and the differences among them, and government laws and regulations of prescription drugs. Pricing policies of pharmaceutical companies are based on manufacturing, promotion, and distribution costs; drug characteristics; and economic goals of the parent company.

Carbon Prices: Dynamic analysis of European and Californian markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Rita Mafalda Dionisio de

Carbon markets' goal is to promote the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases where it is most cost-efficient. This makes the price of the tradable good - carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) - a key variable in management and risk decisions, in markets related to activities connected with the burning of fossil fuels, such as power generation. This work aims to improve the analysis of carbon prices' dynamics, considering the possibility of multidirectional effects between prices of CO2e, energy (primary and final), offsets licenses and the economy performance, in various frequencies. The two main research questions are: (i) what drives carbon price variations? (ii) what variations do carbon prices drive? We used two comple-mentary methodologies: (a) a vector autoregression model (of common use in macroeconomics and financial markets but not in carbon-energy relations), which allows the analysis of causality and of impulse-response functions of daily prices; and (b) an innovative multivariate wavelet analysis, which allows us to understand the relationship and causal link between the variables in the time and frequency dimensions, particularly in longer cycles (4 8 and 8 20 months), not perceived in previous studies. As case studies we considered the European (EU ETS) and Califor-nia (AB32) carbon markets. This is the first research to present the analysis of the referred US market. The analysis covers the 2008-2013 period, intentionally excluding the EU ETS phase I, for greater consistency of results. Results suggest that the economy and electricity drive the price of European carbon, while gas and oil have a greater role in California. So, there is a greater influence of final energy prices in the most mature market. We also observe that the price of CERs does not affect the European carbon price. On the other hand, this study shows for the first time that carbon prices have impacts on electricity prices over longer cycles (8 20 months) and in coal over short cycles (limited to the first days). It is suggested that the carbon market has more significant effects in longer cycles. The price of European carbon also has impact in CERs prices. The results are statistically significant and relevant, and will improve the quality of decision making of all parties involved in the energy and carbon markets - polluters and regulators included.

Identifying the multiscale impacts of crude oil price shocks on the stock market in China at the sector level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shupei; An, Haizhong; Gao, Xiangyun; Huang, Xuan

2015-09-01

The aim of this research is to investigate the multiscale dynamic linkages between crude oil price and the stock market in China at the sector level. First, the Haar à trous wavelet transform is implemented to extract multiscale information from the original time series. Furthermore, we incorporate the vector autoregression model to estimate the dynamic relationship pairing the Brent oil price and each sector stock index at each scale. There is a strong evidence showing that there are bidirectional Granger causality relationships between most of the sector stock indices and the crude oil price in the short, medium and long terms, except for those in the health, utility and consumption sectors. In fact, the impacts of the crude oil price shocks vary for different sectors over different time horizons. More precisely, the energy, information, material and telecommunication sector stock indices respond to crude oil price shocks negatively in the short run and positively in the medium and long runs, terms whereas the finance sector responds positively over all three time horizons. Moreover, the Brent oil price shocks have a stronger influence on the stock indices of sectors other than the health, optional and utility sectors in the medium and long terms than in the short term. The results obtained suggest implication of this paper as that the investment and policymaking decisions made during different time horizons should be based on the information gathered from each corresponding time scale.

Dynamic Interaction between Cap & Trade and Electricity Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeev, Kumar

Greenhouse Gases (GHG), such as Carbon-Dioxide (CO2), which is released in the atmosphere due to anthropogenic activities like power production, are now accepted as the main culprits for global warming. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), an initiative of the North East and Mid-Atlantic States of the United States (US) for limiting the emission of GHG, has developed a regional cap-and-trade program for CO2 emissions for power plants. Existing cap-and-trade programs in US and Europe for Greenhouse Gases have recently been plagued by over-allocation. Carbon prices recently collapsed in all these markets during the global recession. Since then, there have been significant policy changes, which have resulted in the adoption of aggressive emission cap targets by most major carbon emission markets. This is expected to make carbon emissions availability more restrictive, raising the prices of these credits. These emissions markets are expected to have a major impact on the wholesale electricity markets. Two models to study the interaction of these two markets are presented. These models assess the impact of the emissions market on wholesale electricity prices. The first model characterizes the competition between two types of power plants (coal and gas) in both the electricity and emissions markets as a dynamic game using the Cournot approximation. Under this approximation, we find that in the Nash equilibrium the plants increase their permit allocation to high-demand periods and the marginal value of each credit for a plant is identical in all periods under their optimal equilibrium strategy. The second numerical model allows us to explicitly evaluate the closed loop equilibrium of the dynamic interaction of two competitors in these markets. We find that plants often try to corner the market and push prices all the way to the price cap. Power plants derive most of their profits from these extreme price regimes. In the experiments where trading is allowed, plants can collude to keep prices at the price cap. These problems can be averted by careful allocation of credits and strong regulation to deter market manipulation.

Natural selection. IV. The Price equation*

PubMed Central

Frank, Steven A.

2012-01-01

The Price equation partitions total evolutionary change into two components. The first component provides an abstract expression of natural selection. The second component subsumes all other evolutionary processes, including changes during transmission. The natural selection component is often used in applications. Those applications attract widespread interest for their simplicity of expression and ease of interpretation. Those same applications attract widespread criticism by dropping the second component of evolutionary change and by leaving unspecified the detailed assumptions needed for a complete study of dynamics. Controversies over approximation and dynamics have nothing to do with the Price equation itself, which is simply a mathematical equivalence relation for total evolutionary change expressed in an alternative form. Disagreements about approach have to do with the tension between the relative valuation of abstract versus concrete analyses. The Price equation’s greatest value has been on the abstract side, particularly the invariance relations that illuminate the understanding of natural selection. Those abstract insights lay the foundation for applications in terms of kin selection, information theory interpretations of natural selection, and partitions of causes by path analysis. I discuss recent critiques of the Price equation by Nowak and van Veelen. PMID:22487312

Natural selection. IV. The Price equation.

PubMed

Frank, S A

2012-06-01

The Price equation partitions total evolutionary change into two components. The first component provides an abstract expression of natural selection. The second component subsumes all other evolutionary processes, including changes during transmission. The natural selection component is often used in applications. Those applications attract widespread interest for their simplicity of expression and ease of interpretation. Those same applications attract widespread criticism by dropping the second component of evolutionary change and by leaving unspecified the detailed assumptions needed for a complete study of dynamics. Controversies over approximation and dynamics have nothing to do with the Price equation itself, which is simply a mathematical equivalence relation for total evolutionary change expressed in an alternative form. Disagreements about approach have to do with the tension between the relative valuation of abstract versus concrete analyses. The Price equation's greatest value has been on the abstract side, particularly the invariance relations that illuminate the understanding of natural selection. Those abstract insights lay the foundation for applications in terms of kin selection, information theory interpretations of natural selection and partitions of causes by path analysis. I discuss recent critiques of the Price equation by Nowak and van Veelen. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2012 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

48 CFR 13.106-3 - Award and documentation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...) Supporting the award decision if other than price-related factors were considered in selecting the supplier...) Comparison of the proposed price with prices found reasonable on previous purchases; (iii) Current price... being purchased; (vi) Comparison to an independent Government estimate; or (vii) Any other reasonable...

Evaluation of Electric Power Procurement Strategies by Stochastic Dynamic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saisho, Yuichi; Hayashi, Taketo; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji

In deregulated electricity markets, the role of a distribution company is to purchase electricity from the wholesale electricity market at randomly fluctuating prices and to provide it to its customers at a given fixed price. Therefore the company has to take risk stemming from the uncertainties of electricity prices and/or demand fluctuation instead of the customers. The way to avoid the risk is to make a bilateral contact with generating companies or install its own power generation facility. This entails the necessity to develop a certain method to make an optimal strategy for electric power procurement. In such a circumstance, this research has the purpose for proposing a mathematical method based on stochastic dynamic programming and additionally considering the characteristics of the start-up cost of electric power generation facility to evaluate strategies of combination of the bilateral contract and power auto-generation with its own facility for procuring electric power in deregulated electricity market. In the beginning we proposed two approaches to solve the stochastic dynamic programming, and they are a Monte Carlo simulation method and a finite difference method to derive the solution of a partial differential equation of the total procurement cost of electric power. Finally we discussed the influences of the price uncertainty on optimal strategies of power procurement.

Insights into Spring 2008 Gasoline Prices

EIA Publications

2008-01-01

Gasoline prices rose rapidly in spring 2007 due a variety of factors, including refinery outages and lower than expected imports. This report explores those factors and looks at the implications for 2008.

An accurate European option pricing model under Fractional Stable Process based on Feynman Path Integral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Chao; Ma, Qinghua; Yao, Haixiang; Hou, Tiancheng

2018-03-01

In this paper, we propose to use the Fractional Stable Process (FSP) for option pricing. The FSP is one of the few candidates to directly model a number of desired empirical properties of asset price risk neutral dynamics. However, pricing the vanilla European option under FSP is difficult and problematic. In the paper, built upon the developed Feynman Path Integral inspired techniques, we present a novel computational model for option pricing, i.e. the Fractional Stable Process Path Integral (FSPPI) model under a general fractional stable distribution that tackles this problem. Numerical and empirical experiments show that the proposed pricing model provides a correction of the Black-Scholes pricing error - overpricing long term options, underpricing short term options; overpricing out-of-the-money options, underpricing in-the-money options without any additional structures such as stochastic volatility and a jump process.

Structurally Dynamic Spin Market Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horváth, Denis; Kuscsik, Zoltán

The agent-based model of stock price dynamics on a directed evolving complex network is suggested and studied by direct simulation. The stationary regime is maintained as a result of the balance between the extremal dynamics, adaptivity of strategic variables and reconnection rules. The inherent structure of node agent "brain" is modeled by a recursive neural network with local and global inputs and feedback connections. For specific parametric combination the complex network displays small-world phenomenon combined with scale-free behavior. The identification of a local leader (network hub, agent whose strategies are frequently adapted by its neighbors) is carried out by repeated random walk process through network. The simulations show empirically relevant dynamics of price returns and volatility clustering. The additional emerging aspects of stylized market statistics are Zipfian distributions of fitness.

A cost-benefit analysis of demand for food.

PubMed Central

Hursh, S R; Raslear, T G; Shurtleff, D; Bauman, R; Simmons, L

1988-01-01

Laboratory studies of consumer demand theory require assumptions regarding the definition of price in the absence of a medium of exchange (money). In this study we test the proposition that the fundamental dimension of price is a cost-benefit ratio expressed as the effort expended per unit of food value consumed. Using rats as subjects, we tested the generality of this "unit price" concept by varying four dimensions of price: fixed-ratio schedule, number of food pellets per fixed-ratio completion, probability of reinforcement, and response lever weight or effort. Two levels of the last three factors were combined in a 2 x 2 x 2 design giving eight groups. Each group was studied under a series of six FR schedules. Using the nominal values of all factors to determine unit price, we found that grams of food consumed plotted as a function of unit price followed a single demand curve. Similarly, total work output (responses x effort) conformed to a single function when plotted in terms of unit price. These observations provided a template for interpreting the effects of biological factors, such as brain lesions or drugs, that might alter the cost-benefit ratio. PMID:3209958

A Comparison of Software Schedule Estimators

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-09-01

SLIM ...................................... 33 SPQR /20 ................................... 35 System -4 .................................... 37 Previous...24 3. PRICE-S Outputs ..................................... 26 4. COCOMO Factors by Category ........................... 28 5. SPQR /20 Activities...actual schedules experienced on the projects. The models analyzed were REVIC, PRICE-S, System-4, SPQR /20, and SEER. ix A COMPARISON OF SOFTWARE

19 CFR 351.511 - Provision of goods or services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... available world market price, the Secretary will average such prices to the extent practicable, making due... normally seek to measure the adequacy of remuneration by comparing the government price to a market..., imported, or auctioned; and other factors affecting comparability. (ii) Actual market-determined price...

19 CFR 351.511 - Provision of goods or services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... available world market price, the Secretary will average such prices to the extent practicable, making due... normally seek to measure the adequacy of remuneration by comparing the government price to a market..., imported, or auctioned; and other factors affecting comparability. (ii) Actual market-determined price...

19 CFR 351.511 - Provision of goods or services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... available world market price, the Secretary will average such prices to the extent practicable, making due... normally seek to measure the adequacy of remuneration by comparing the government price to a market..., imported, or auctioned; and other factors affecting comparability. (ii) Actual market-determined price...

19 CFR 351.511 - Provision of goods or services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... available world market price, the Secretary will average such prices to the extent practicable, making due... normally seek to measure the adequacy of remuneration by comparing the government price to a market..., imported, or auctioned; and other factors affecting comparability. (ii) Actual market-determined price...

19 CFR 351.511 - Provision of goods or services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... available world market price, the Secretary will average such prices to the extent practicable, making due... normally seek to measure the adequacy of remuneration by comparing the government price to a market..., imported, or auctioned; and other factors affecting comparability. (ii) Actual market-determined price...

Perceptions on the use of pricing strategies to stimulate healthy eating among residents of deprived neighbourhoods: a focus group study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Pricing strategies are mentioned frequently as a potentially effective tool to stimulate healthy eating, mainly for consumers with a low socio-economic status. Still, it is not known how these consumers perceive pricing strategies, which pricing strategies are favoured and what contextual factors are important in achieving the anticipated effects. Methods We conducted seven focus groups among 59 residents of deprived neighbourhoods in two large Dutch cities. The focus group topics were based on insights from Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations Theory and consisted of four parts: 1) discussion on factors in food selection; 2) attitudes and perceptions towards food prices; 3) thinking up pricing strategies; 4) attitudes and perceptions regarding nine pricing strategies that were nominated by experts in a former Delphi Study. Analyses were conducted with Atlas.ti 5.2 computer software, using the framework approach. Results Qualitative analyses revealed that this group of consumers consider price to be a core factor in food choice and that they experience financial barriers against buying certain foods. Price was also experienced as a proficient tool to stimulate healthier food choices. Yet, consumers indicated that significant effects could only be achieved by combining price with information and promotion techniques. In general, pricing strategies focusing on encouraging healthy eating were valued to be more helpful than pricing strategies which focused on discouraging unhealthy eating. Suggested high reward strategies were: reducing the price of healthier options of comparable products (e.g., whole meal bread) compared to unhealthier options (e.g., white bread); providing a healthy food discount card for low-income groups; and combining price discounts on healthier foods with other marketing techniques such as displaying cheap and healthy foods at the cash desk. Conclusion This focus group study provides important new insights regarding the use of pricing strategies to stimulate healthy eating. The observed perceptions and attitudes of residents of deprived neighbourhoods can be integrated into future experimental studies and be used to reveal if and how pricing strategies are effective in stimulating healthy eating. PMID:20482857

Perceptions on the use of pricing strategies to stimulate healthy eating among residents of deprived neighbourhoods: a focus group study.

PubMed

Waterlander, Wilma E; de Mul, Anika; Schuit, Albertine J; Seidell, Jacob C; Steenhuis, Ingrid Hm

2010-05-19

Pricing strategies are mentioned frequently as a potentially effective tool to stimulate healthy eating, mainly for consumers with a low socio-economic status. Still, it is not known how these consumers perceive pricing strategies, which pricing strategies are favoured and what contextual factors are important in achieving the anticipated effects. We conducted seven focus groups among 59 residents of deprived neighbourhoods in two large Dutch cities. The focus group topics were based on insights from Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations Theory and consisted of four parts: 1) discussion on factors in food selection; 2) attitudes and perceptions towards food prices; 3) thinking up pricing strategies; 4) attitudes and perceptions regarding nine pricing strategies that were nominated by experts in a former Delphi Study. Analyses were conducted with Atlas.ti 5.2 computer software, using the framework approach. Qualitative analyses revealed that this group of consumers consider price to be a core factor in food choice and that they experience financial barriers against buying certain foods. Price was also experienced as a proficient tool to stimulate healthier food choices. Yet, consumers indicated that significant effects could only be achieved by combining price with information and promotion techniques. In general, pricing strategies focusing on encouraging healthy eating were valued to be more helpful than pricing strategies which focused on discouraging unhealthy eating. Suggested high reward strategies were: reducing the price of healthier options of comparable products (e.g., whole meal bread) compared to unhealthier options (e.g., white bread); providing a healthy food discount card for low-income groups; and combining price discounts on healthier foods with other marketing techniques such as displaying cheap and healthy foods at the cash desk. This focus group study provides important new insights regarding the use of pricing strategies to stimulate healthy eating. The observed perceptions and attitudes of residents of deprived neighbourhoods can be integrated into future experimental studies and be used to reveal if and how pricing strategies are effective in stimulating healthy eating.

Using trading strategies to detect phase transitions in financial markets.

PubMed

Forró, Z; Woodard, R; Sornette, D

2015-04-01

We show that the log-periodic power law singularity model (LPPLS), a mathematical embodiment of positive feedbacks between agents and of their hierarchical dynamical organization, has a significant predictive power in financial markets. We find that LPPLS-based strategies significantly outperform the randomized ones and that they are robust with respect to a large selection of assets and time periods. The dynamics of prices thus markedly deviate from randomness in certain pockets of predictability that can be associated with bubble market regimes. Our hybrid approach, marrying finance with the trading strategies, and critical phenomena with LPPLS, demonstrates that targeting information related to phase transitions enables the forecast of financial bubbles and crashes punctuating the dynamics of prices.

Auctions with Dynamic Populations: Efficiency and Revenue Maximization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Said, Maher

We study a stochastic sequential allocation problem with a dynamic population of privately-informed buyers. We characterize the set of efficient allocation rules and show that a dynamic VCG mechanism is both efficient and periodic ex post incentive compatible; we also show that the revenue-maximizing direct mechanism is a pivot mechanism with a reserve price. We then consider sequential ascending auctions in this setting, both with and without a reserve price. We construct equilibrium bidding strategies in this indirect mechanism where bidders reveal their private information in every period, yielding the same outcomes as the direct mechanisms. Thus, the sequential ascending auction is a natural institution for achieving either efficient or optimal outcomes.

Using trading strategies to detect phase transitions in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forró, Z.; Woodard, R.; Sornette, D.

2015-04-01

We show that the log-periodic power law singularity model (LPPLS), a mathematical embodiment of positive feedbacks between agents and of their hierarchical dynamical organization, has a significant predictive power in financial markets. We find that LPPLS-based strategies significantly outperform the randomized ones and that they are robust with respect to a large selection of assets and time periods. The dynamics of prices thus markedly deviate from randomness in certain pockets of predictability that can be associated with bubble market regimes. Our hybrid approach, marrying finance with the trading strategies, and critical phenomena with LPPLS, demonstrates that targeting information related to phase transitions enables the forecast of financial bubbles and crashes punctuating the dynamics of prices.

Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy, and the environment: An integrated modeling approach

EPA Science Inventory

The accelerated growth in biofuels markets has both created and reinforced linkages between agricultural and energy markets. This study investigates the dynamics in agricultural and biofuel markets under alternative price scenarios for both crude oil and natural gas. Two energy ...

Managed lane operations--adjusted time of day pricing vs. near-real time dynamic pricing : summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

In 2008, the Florida Department of Transportation began implementing the 95 Express, a segment of I-95 in Miami with high occupancy toll (HOT) lanes. Some vehicles use HOT lanes free, but most vehicles pay a toll based on real-time traffic conditions...

Dynamical regimes due to technological change in a microeconomical model of production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamacher, K.

2012-09-01

We develop a microeconomical model to investigate the impact of technological change onto production decisions of suppliers—modeling an effective feedback mechanism of the market. An important property—the time horizon of production planning—is related to the Kolmogorov entropy of the one-dimensional maps describing price dynamics. We simulate this price dynamics in an ensemble representing the whole macroeconomy. We show how this model can be used to support ongoing research in economic growth and incorporate the obtained microeconomic findings into the discussion about appropriate macroeconomic quantities such as the production function—thus effectively underpinning macroeconomics with microeconomical dynamics. From there we can show that the model exhibits different dynamical regimes (suggesting "phase transitions") with respect to an order parameter. The non-linear feedback under technological change was found to be the crucial mechanism. The implications of the obtained regimes are finally discussed.

Dynamical regimes due to technological change in a microeconomical model of production.

PubMed

Hamacher, K

2012-09-01

We develop a microeconomical model to investigate the impact of technological change onto production decisions of suppliers-modeling an effective feedback mechanism of the market. An important property-the time horizon of production planning-is related to the Kolmogorov entropy of the one-dimensional maps describing price dynamics. We simulate this price dynamics in an ensemble representing the whole macroeconomy. We show how this model can be used to support ongoing research in economic growth and incorporate the obtained microeconomic findings into the discussion about appropriate macroeconomic quantities such as the production function-thus effectively underpinning macroeconomics with microeconomical dynamics. From there we can show that the model exhibits different dynamical regimes (suggesting "phase transitions") with respect to an order parameter. The non-linear feedback under technological change was found to be the crucial mechanism. The implications of the obtained regimes are finally discussed.

Price-dependent quality: examining the effects of price on multimedia quality requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hands, David S.; Partridge, Caroline; Cheng, Kennedy; Jacobs, Richard J.

2007-02-01

Traditionally, subjective quality assessments are made in isolation of mediating factors (e.g. interest in content, price). This approach is useful for determining the pure perceptual quality of content. Recently, there has been a growing interest in understanding users' quality of experience. To move from perceptual quality assessment to quality of experience assessment, factors beyond reproduction quality must be considered. From a commercial perspective, content and price are key determinants of success. This paper investigates the relationship between price and quality. Subjects selected content that was of interest to them. Subjects were given a budget of ten pounds at the start of the test. When viewing content, subjects were free to select different levels of quality. The lowest quality was free (and subjects left the test with ten pounds). The highest quality used up the full budget (and subjects left the test with no money). A range of pricing tariffs was used in the test. During the test, subjects were allowed to prioritise quality or price. The results of the test found that subjects prioritised quality over price across all tariff levels. At the higher pricing tariffs, subjects became more price sensitive. Using data from a number of subjective tests, a utility function describing the relationship between price and quality was produced.

75 FR 68616 - Notice of Certain Operating Cost Adjustment Factors for 2011

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-08

... Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index, All Items Less Food, Energy and shelter (Series ID.... Fuel Oil: Energy Information Agency, 2008 to 2009 Retail Price of No. 2 Fuel Oil to Residential... . Natural Gas: Energy Information Agency, Natural Gas, Residential Energy Price, 2008-2009 annual prices in...

48 CFR 352.231-71 - Pricing of adjustments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Pricing of adjustments... Pricing of adjustments. As prescribed in 331.102-70, the Contracting Officer shall insert the following clause: Pricing of Adjustments (January 2001) When costs are a factor in determination of a contract...

48 CFR 252.243-7001 - Pricing of contract modifications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Pricing of contract... of Provisions And Clauses 252.243-7001 Pricing of contract modifications. As prescribed in 243.205-70, use the following clause: Pricing of Contract Modifications (DEC 1991) When costs are a factor in any...

The Pricing of Economics Books.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laband, David; Hudson, John

2003-01-01

Examines the pricing and other characteristics of books. Notes substantial increases in book prices between 2000 and 1985 data. Suggests a major factor is the increasing importance of foreign presses that sell books at higher prices. Indicates that discount on paperbacks appear to have been relatively stable in the two years studied. (JEH)

Latent factor structure of a behavioral economic cigarette demand curve in adolescent smokers

PubMed Central

Bidwell, L. Cinnamon; MacKillop, James; Murphy, James G.; Tidey, Jennifer W.; Colby, Suzanne M.

2012-01-01

Behavioral economic demand curves, or quantitative representations of drug consumption across a range of prices, have been used to assess motivation for a variety of drugs. Such curves generate multiple measures of drug demand that are associated with cigarette consumption and nicotine dependence. However, little is known about the relationships among these facets of demand. The aim of the study was to quantify these relationships in adolescent smokers by using exploratory factor analysis to examine the underlying structure of the facets of nicotine incentive value generated from a demand curve measure. Participants were 138 adolescent smokers who completed a hypothetical cigarette purchase task, which assessed estimated cigarette consumption at escalating levels of price/cigarette. Demand curves and five facets of demand were generated from the measure: Elasticity (i.e., 1/α or proportionate price sensitivity); Intensity (i.e., consumption at zero price); Omax (i.e., maximum financial expenditure on cigarettes); Pmax (i.e., price at which expenditure is maximized); and Breakpoint (i.e., the price that suppresses consumption to zero). Principal components analysis was used to examine the latent structure among the variables. The results revealed a two-factor solution, which were interpreted as “Persistence,” reflecting insensitivity to escalating price, and “Amplitude,” reflecting the absolute levels of consumption and price. These findings suggest a two factor structure of nicotine incentive value as measured via a demand curve. If supported, these findings have implications for understanding the relationships among individual demand indices in future behavioral economic studies and may further contribute to understanding of the nature of cigarette reinforcement. PMID:22727784

Nonlinear joint dynamics between prices of crude oil and refined products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tao; Ma, Guofeng; Liu, Guangsheng

2015-02-01

In this paper, we investigate the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices. We find that nonlinear correlations are stronger in the long-term than in the short-term. Crude oil and product prices are cointegrated and financial crisis in 2007-2008 caused a structural break of the cointegrating relationship. Moreover, different from the findings in most studies, we reveal that the relationships are almost symmetric based on a threshold error correction model. The so-called 'asymmetric relationships' are caused by some outliers and financial crisis. Most of the time, crude oil prices play the major role in the adjustment process of the long-term equilibrium. However, refined product prices dominated crude oil prices during the period of financial crisis. Important policy and risk management implications can be learned from the empirical findings.

Financial methods in competitive electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Shijie

The restructuring of electric power industry has become a global trend. As reforms to the electricity supply industry spread rapidly across countries and states, many political and economical issues arise as a result of people debating over which approach to adopt in restructuring the vertically integrated electricity industry. This dissertation addresses issues of transmission pricing, electricity spot price modeling, as well as risk management and asset valuation in a competitive electricity industry. A major concern in the restructuring of the electricity industries is the design of a transmission pricing scheme that will ensure open-access to the transmission networks. I propose a priority-pricing scheme for zonal access to the electric power grid that is uniform across all buses in each zone. The Independent System Operator (ISO) charges bulk power traders a per unit ex ante transmission access fee based on the expected option value of the generated power with respect to the random zonal spot prices. The zonal access fee depends on the injection zone and a self-selected strike price determining the scheduling priority of the transaction. Inter zonal transactions are charged (or credited) with an additional ex post congestion fee that equals the zonal spot price difference. The unit access fee entitles a bulk power trader to either physical injection of one unit of energy or a compensation payment that equals to the difference between the realized zonal spot price and the selected strike price. The ISO manages congestion so as to minimize net compensation payments and thus, curtailment probabilities corresponding to a particular strike price may vary by bus. The rest of the dissertation deals with the issues of modeling electricity spot prices, pricing electricity financial instruments and the corresponding risk management applications. Modeling the spot prices of electricity is important for the market participants who need to understand the risk factors in pricing electricity financial instruments such as electricity forwards, options and cross-commodity derivatives. It is also essential for the analysis of financial risk management, asset valuation, and project financing. In the setting of diffusion processes with multiple types of jumps, I examine three mean-reversion models for modeling the electricity spot prices. I impose some structure on the coefficients of the diffusion processes, which allows me to easily compute the prices of contingent claims (or, financial instruments) on electricity by Fourier methods. I derive the pricing formulas for various electricity derivatives and examine how the prices vary with different modeling assumptions. I demonstrate a couple of risk management applications of the electricity financial instruments. I also construct a real options approach to value electric power generation and transmission assets both with and without accounting for the operating characteristics of the assets. The implications of the mean-reversion jump-diffusion models on financial risk management and real asset valuation in competitive electricity markets are illustrated. With a discrete trinomial lattice modeling the underlying commodity prices, I estimate the effects of operational characteristics on the asset valuation by means of numerical examples that incorporate these aspects using stochastic dynamic programming. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

A quantum anharmonic oscillator model for the stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tingting; Chen, Yu

2017-02-01

A financially interpretable quantum model is proposed to study the probability distributions of the stock price return. The dynamics of a quantum particle is considered an analog of the motion of stock price. Then the probability distributions of price return can be computed from the wave functions that evolve according to Schrodinger equation. Instead of a harmonic oscillator in previous studies, a quantum anharmonic oscillator is applied to the stock in liquid market. The leptokurtic distributions of price return can be reproduced by our quantum model with the introduction of mixed-state and multi-potential. The trend following dominant market, in which the price return follows a bimodal distribution, is discussed as a specific case of the illiquid market.

Motor Gasoline Market Spring 2007 and Implications for Spring 2008

EIA Publications

2008-01-01

This report focuses on the major factors that drove the widening difference between wholesale gasoline and crude oil prices in 2007 and explores how those factors might impact gasoline prices in 2008.

Valuing options in shot noise market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laskin, Nick

2018-07-01

A new exactly solvable option pricing model has been introduced and elaborated. It is assumed that a stock price follows a Geometric shot noise process. An arbitrage-free integro-differential option pricing equation has been obtained and solved. The new Greeks have been analytically calculated. It has been shown that in diffusion approximation the developed option pricing model incorporates the well-known Black-Scholes equation and its solution. The stochastic dynamic origin of the Black-Scholes volatility has been uncovered. To model the observed market stock price patterns consisting of high frequency small magnitude and low frequency large magnitude jumps, the superposition of two Geometric shot noises has been implemented. A new generalized option pricing equation has been obtained and its exact solution was found. Merton's jump-diffusion formula for option price was recovered in diffusion approximation. Despite the non-Gaussian nature of probability distributions involved, the new option pricing model has the same degree of analytical tractability as the Black-Scholes model and the Merton jump-diffusion model. This attractive feature allows one to derive exact formulas to value options and option related instruments in the market with jump-like price patterns.

Generic drug prices and policy in Australia: room for improvement? a comparative analysis with England.

PubMed

Mansfield, Sarah J

2014-02-01

To assess the degree to which reimbursement prices in Australia and England differ for a range of generic drugs, and to analyse the supply- and demand-side factors that may contribute to these differences. Australian and English reimbursement prices were compared for a range of generic drugs using pricing information obtained from government websites. Next, a literature review was conducted to identify supply- and demand-side factors that could affect generic prices in Australia and England. Various search topics were identified addressing potential supply-side (e.g. market approval, intellectual property protection of patented drugs, generic pricing policy, market size, generic supply chain and discounting practices) and demand-side (consumers, prescribers and pharmacists) factors. Related terms were searched in academic databases, official government websites, national statistical databases and internet search engines. Analysis of drug reimbursement prices for 15 generic molecules (representing 45 different drug presentations) demonstrated that Australian prices were on average over 7-fold higher than in England. Significant supply-side differences included aspects of pricing policy, the relative size of the generics markets and the use of clawback policies. Major differences in demand-side policies related to generic prescribing, pharmacist substitution and consumer incentives. Despite recent reforms, the Australian Government continues to pay higher prices than its English counterpart for many generic medications. The results suggest that particular policy areas may benefit from review in Australia, including the length of the price-setting process, the frequency of subsequent price adjustments, the extent of price competition between originators and generics, medical professionals' knowledge about generic medicines and incentives for generic prescribing. WHAT IS KNOWN ABOUT THE TOPIC? Prices of generic drugs have been the subject of much scrutiny over recent years. From 2005 to 2010 the Australian Government responded to observations that Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme prices for many generics were higher than in numerous comparable countries by instituting several reforms aimed at reducing the prices of generics. Despite this, several studies have demonstrated that prices for generic statins (one class of cholesterol-lowering drug) are higher in Australia compared with England and many other developed countries, and prices of numerous other generics remain higher than in the USA and New Zealand. Recently there has been increasing interest in why these differences exist. WHAT DOES THIS PAPER ADD? By including a much larger range of commonly used and costly generic drugs, this paper builds significantly on the limited previous investigations of generic drug prices in Australia and England. Additionally, this is the first comprehensive investigation of multiple supply- and, in particular, demand-side factors that may explain any price differences between these countries. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTITIONERS? Practitioners may contribute to the higher prices of generic medications in Australia compared with England through relatively low rates of generic prescribing. There are also significant implications for health policy makers, as this paper demonstrates that if Australia achieved the same prices as England for many generic drugs there could be substantial savings for the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme.

Microgrid Utilities for Rural Electrification in East Africa: Challenges and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Nathaniel J.

Expanding access to electricity is central to development in East Africa but massive increases in investment are required to achieve universal access. Private sector participation in electrification is essential to meeting electricity access targets. Policy makers have acknowledged that grid extension in many remote rural areas is not as cost effective as decentralized alternatives such as microgrids. Microgrid companies have been unable to scale beyond pilot projects due in part to challenges in raising capital for a business model that is perceived to be risky. This thesis aims to identify and quantify the primary sources of investment risk in microgrid utilities and study ways to mitigate these risks to make these businesses more viable. Two modeling tools have been developed to this end. The Stochastic Techno-Economic Microgrid Model (STEMM) models the technical and financial performance of microgrid utilities using uncertain and dynamic inputs to permit explicit modeling of financial risk. This model is applied in an investment risk assessment and case study in Rwanda. Key findings suggest that the most important drivers of risk are fuel prices, foreign exchange rates, demand for electricity, and price elasticity of demand for electricity. The relative importance of these factors is technology dependent with demand uncertainty figuring stronger for solar and high solar penetration hybrid systems and fuel prices driving risk in diesel power and low solar penetration hybrid systems. Considering uncertainty in system sizing presents a tradeoff whereby a decrease in expected equity return decreases downside risk. High solar penetration systems are also found to be more attractive to lenders. The second modeling tool leverages electricity consumption and demographic data from four microgrids in Tanzania to forecast demand for electricity in newly electrified communities. Using statistical learning techniques, improvements in prediction performance was achieved over the historical mean baseline. I have also identified important predictors in estimating electricity consumption of newly connected customers. These include tariff structures and prices, pre- connection sources of electricity and lighting, levels of spending on electricity services and airtime, and pre-connection appliance ownership. Prior exposure to electricity, disposable income, and price are dominant factors in estimating demand.

Calculation of fuel, currency, and inland freight price adjustment factors for military marine shipping

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

This report describes the refreshing of the USTRANSCOM Economic Price Adjustment (EPA) factors for use in the USC-7 contract. The three EPA factors developed by Volpe in 2009 are the starting point for this update, and these are the Bunker Fuel Adjus...

14 CFR 1214.813 - Computation of sharing and pricing parameters.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... paragraph of this section shall be applied as indicated. The procedure for computing Shuttle load factor, charge factor, and flight price for Spacelab payloads replaces the procedure contained in the Shuttle policy. (2) Shuttle charge factors as derived herein apply to the standard mission destination of 160 nmi...

14 CFR 1214.813 - Computation of sharing and pricing parameters.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... paragraph of this section shall be applied as indicated. The procedure for computing Shuttle load factor, charge factor, and flight price for Spacelab payloads replaces the procedure contained in the Shuttle policy. (2) Shuttle charge factors as derived herein apply to the standard mission destination of 160 nmi...

14 CFR § 1214.813 - Computation of sharing and pricing parameters.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... paragraph of this section shall be applied as indicated. The procedure for computing Shuttle load factor, charge factor, and flight price for Spacelab payloads replaces the procedure contained in the Shuttle policy. (2) Shuttle charge factors as derived herein apply to the standard mission destination of 160 nmi...

14 CFR 1214.813 - Computation of sharing and pricing parameters.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... paragraph of this section shall be applied as indicated. The procedure for computing Shuttle load factor, charge factor, and flight price for Spacelab payloads replaces the procedure contained in the Shuttle policy. (2) Shuttle charge factors as derived herein apply to the standard mission destination of 160 nmi...

Pricing in health care organizations. A key component of the marketing mix.

PubMed

Marlowe, D

1989-01-01

Pricing is one of the key components of a successful marketing mix. Pricing objectives, strategies, and tactics cannot stand alone, however. To be effective, price must work in harmony with other marketing and management activities. Despite its importance, use of pricing as a management tool is limited in health care compared to other industries. Many factors contribute to this situation, including the structure of the health-care exchange process, limited consumer knowledge, and a limited ability to measure costs. I will provide an overview of pricing information, both within and outside health care. Specifically, we will explore the definition of pricing, nonmonetary pricing, price elasticity, classical pricing theory, and the role of pricing in a health-care setting.

On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akaev, A.; Sadovnichy, V.; Korotayev, A.

2012-05-01

The article considers dynamic processes involving non-linear power-law behavior in such apparently diverse spheres, as demographic dynamics and dynamics of prices of highly liquid commodities such as oil and gold. All the respective variables exhibit features of explosive growth containing precursors indicating approaching phase transitions/catastrophes/crises. The first part of the article analyzes mathematical models of demographic dynamics that describe various scenarios of demographic development in the post-phase-transition period, including a model that takes the limitedness of the Earth carrying capacity into account. This model points to a critical point in the early 2050s, when the world population, after reaching its maximum value may decrease afterward stabilizing then at a certain stationary level. The article presents an analysis of the influence of the demographic transition (directly connected with the hyperexponential growth of the world population) on the global socioeconomic and geopolitical development. The second part deals with the phenomenon of explosive growth of prices of such highly liquid commodities as oil and gold. It is demonstrated that at present the respective processes could be regarded as precursors of waves of the global financial-economic crisis that will demand the change of the current global economic and political system. It is also shown that the moments of the start of the first and second waves of the current global crisis could have been forecasted with a model of accelerating log-periodic fluctuations superimposed over a power-law trend with a finite singularity developed by Didier Sornette and collaborators. With respect to the oil prices, it is shown that it was possible to forecast the 2008 crisis with a precision up to a month already in 2007. The gold price dynamics was used to calculate the possible time of the start of the second wave of the global crisis (July-August 2011); note that this forecast has turned out to be quite correct.

Can investor sentiment be used to predict the stock price? Dynamic analysis based on China stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Kun; Sun, Yi; Qian, Xin

2017-03-01

With the development of the social network, the interaction between investors in stock market became more fast and convenient. Thus, investor sentiment which can influence their investment decisions may be quickly spread and magnified through the network, and to a certain extent the stock market can be affected. This paper collected the user comments data from a popular professional social networking site of China stock market called Xueqiu, then the investor sentiment data can be obtained through semantic analysis. The dynamic analysis on relationship between investor sentiment and stock market is proposed based on Thermal Optimal Path (TOP) method. The results show that the sentiment data was not always leading over stock market price, and it can be used to predict the stock price only when the stock has high investor attention.

Continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection with value-at-risk and no-shorting constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Wei

2012-01-01

An investment problem is considered with dynamic mean-variance(M-V) portfolio criterion under discontinuous prices which follow jump-diffusion processes according to the actual prices of stocks and the normality and stability of the financial market. The short-selling of stocks is prohibited in this mathematical model. Then, the corresponding stochastic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB) equation of the problem is presented and the solution of the stochastic HJB equation based on the theory of stochastic LQ control and viscosity solution is obtained. The efficient frontier and optimal strategies of the original dynamic M-V portfolio selection problem are also provided. And then, the effects on efficient frontier under the value-at-risk constraint are illustrated. Finally, an example illustrating the discontinuous prices based on M-V portfolio selection is presented.

A mini-review on econophysics: Comparative study of Chinese and western financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Bo; Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Ni, Peng-Yun

2014-07-01

We present a review of our recent research in econophysics, and focus on the comparative study of Chinese and western financial markets. By virtue of concepts and methods in statistical physics, we investigate the time correlations and spatial structure of financial markets based on empirical high-frequency data. We discover that the Chinese stock market shares common basic properties with the western stock markets, such as the fat-tail probability distribution of price returns, the long-range auto-correlation of volatilities, and the persistence probability of volatilities, while it exhibits very different higher-order time correlations of price returns and volatilities, spatial correlations of individual stock prices, and large-fluctuation dynamic behaviors. Furthermore, multi-agent-based models are developed to simulate the microscopic interaction and dynamic evolution of the stock markets.

The relationship between US heroin market dynamics and heroin-related overdose, 1992–2008

PubMed Central

Unick, George; Rosenblum, Daniel; Mars, Sarah; Ciccarone, Daniel

2017-01-01

Background and Aims Heroin-related overdose is linked to polydrug use, changes in physiological tolerance and social factors. Individual risk can also be influenced by the structural risk environment including the illicit drug market. We hypothesized that components of the US illicit drug market, specifically heroin source/type, price and purity, will have independent effects on the number of heroin-related overdose hospital admissions. Methods Yearly, from 1992 to 2008, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) price and purity series were estimated from the US Drug Enforcement Administration data. Yearly heroin overdose hospitalizations were constructed from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Socio-demographic variables were constructed using several databases. Negative binomial models were used to estimate the effect of price, purity and source region of heroin on yearly hospital counts of heroin overdoses controlling for poverty, unemployment, crime, MSA socio-demographic characteristics and population size. Results Purity was not associated with heroin overdose, but each $100 decrease in the price per pure gram of heroin resulted in a 2.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.8%, 1.0%] increase in the number of heroin overdose hospitalizations (P = 0.003). Each 10% increase in the market share of Colombian-sourced heroin was associated with a 4.1% (95% CI = 1.7%, 6.6%) increase in number of overdoses reported in hospitals (P = 0.001) independent of heroin quality. Conclusions Decreases in the price of pure heroin in the United States are associated with increased heroin-related overdose hospital admissions. Increases in market concentration of Colombian-source/type heroin is also associated with an increase in heroin-related overdose hospital admissions. Increases in US heroin-related overdose admissions appear to be related to structural changes in the US heroin market. PMID:24938727

The relationship between US heroin market dynamics and heroin-related overdose, 1992-2008.

PubMed

Unick, George; Rosenblum, Daniel; Mars, Sarah; Ciccarone, Daniel

2014-11-01

Heroin-related overdose is linked to polydrug use, changes in physiological tolerance and social factors. Individual risk can also be influenced by the structural risk environment including the illicit drug market. We hypothesized that components of the US illicit drug market, specifically heroin source/type, price and purity, will have independent effects on the number of heroin-related overdose hospital admissions. Yearly, from 1992 to 2008, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) price and purity series were estimated from the US Drug Enforcement Administration data. Yearly heroin overdose hospitalizations were constructed from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Socio-demographic variables were constructed using several databases. Negative binomial models were used to estimate the effect of price, purity and source region of heroin on yearly hospital counts of heroin overdoses controlling for poverty, unemployment, crime, MSA socio-demographic characteristics and population size. Purity was not associated with heroin overdose, but each $100 decrease in the price per pure gram of heroin resulted in a 2.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.8%, 1.0%] increase in the number of heroin overdose hospitalizations (P = 0.003). Each 10% increase in the market share of Colombian-sourced heroin was associated with a 4.1% (95% CI = 1.7%, 6.6%) increase in number of overdoses reported in hospitals (P = 0.001) independent of heroin quality. Decreases in the price of pure heroin in the United States are associated with increased heroin-related overdose hospital admissions. Increases in market concentration of Colombian-source/type heroin is also associated with an increase in heroin-related overdose hospital admissions. Increases in US heroin-related overdose admissions appear to be related to structural changes in the US heroin market. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Association of market, mission, operational, and financial factors on hospital acquisition prices: 1999 through 2001.

PubMed

McCue, Michael J; Kim, Tae Hyun

2005-01-01

Since the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, there has been a decline in the number of hospital acquisitions. Using data from 1999 through 2001, we examined the relationship between market, mission, operational, and financial factors on hospital acquisition prices. Using an ordinary least squares regression model, we found that acquiring multihospital systems paid a higher price for larger hospitals with fewer unoccupied beds and greater profitability. Although only marginally significant, we also found that acquiring hospital systems paid a higher purchase price for hospitals in near urban markets and for hospitals located in the Central region of the United States. From a policy standpoint, we found no significant difference in the purchase price paid between for-profit and nonprofit hospitals.

The mechanism of double-exponential growth in hyper-inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizuno, T.; Takayasu, M.; Takayasu, H.

2002-05-01

Analyzing historical data of price indices, we find an extraordinary growth phenomenon in several examples of hyper-inflation in which, price changes are approximated nicely by double-exponential functions of time. In order to explain such behavior we introduce the general coarse-graining technique in physics, the Monte Carlo renormalization group method, to the price dynamics. Starting from a microscopic stochastic equation describing dealers’ actions in open markets, we obtain a macroscopic noiseless equation of price consistent with the observation. The effect of auto-catalytic shortening of characteristic time caused by mob psychology is shown to be responsible for the double-exponential behavior.

Dynamics of global supply chain and electric power networks: Models, pricing analysis, and computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsypura, Dmytro

In this dissertation, I develop a new theoretical framework for the modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of solutions to electric power supply chains with power generators, suppliers, transmission service providers, and the inclusion of consumer demands. In particular, I advocate the application of finite-dimensional variational inequality theory, projected dynamical systems theory, game theory, network theory, and other tools that have been recently proposed for the modeling and analysis of supply chain networks (cf. Nagurney (2006)) to electric power markets. This dissertation contributes to the extant literature on the modeling, analysis, and solution of supply chain networks, including global supply chains, in general, and electric power supply chains, in particular, in the following ways. It develops a theoretical framework for modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of electric power flows/transactions in electric power systems using the rationale for supply chain analysis. The models developed include both static and dynamic ones. The dissertation also adds a new dimension to the methodology of the theory of projected dynamical systems by proving that, irrespective of the speeds of adjustment, the equilibrium of the system remains the same. Finally, I include alternative fuel suppliers, along with their behavior into the supply chain modeling and analysis framework. This dissertation has strong practical implications. In an era in which technology and globalization, coupled with increasing risk and uncertainty, complicate electricity demand and supply within and between nations, the successful management of electric power systems and pricing become increasingly pressing topics with relevance not only for economic prosperity but also national security. This dissertation addresses such related topics by providing models, pricing tools, and algorithms for decentralized electric power supply chains. This dissertation is based heavily on the following coauthored papers: Nagurney, Cruz, and Matsypura (2003), Nagurney and Matsypura (2004, 2005, 2006), Matsypura and Nagurney (2005), Matsypura, Nagurney, and Liu (2006).

Multi-step-ahead crude oil price forecasting using a hybrid grey wave model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yanhui; Zhang, Chuan; He, Kaijian; Zheng, Aibing

2018-07-01

Crude oil is crucial to the operation and economic well-being of the modern society. Huge changes of crude oil price always cause panics to the global economy. There are many factors influencing crude oil price. Crude oil price prediction is still a difficult research problem widely discussed among researchers. Based on the researches on Heterogeneous Market Hypothesis and the relationship between crude oil price and macroeconomic factors, exchange market, stock market, this paper proposes a hybrid grey wave forecasting model, which combines Random Walk (RW)/ARMA to forecast multi-step-ahead crude oil price. More specifically, we use grey wave forecasting model to model the periodical characteristics of crude oil price and ARMA/RW to simulate the daily random movements. The innovation also comes from using the information of the time series graph to forecast crude oil price, since grey wave forecasting is a graphical prediction method. The empirical results demonstrate that based on the daily data of crude oil price, the hybrid grey wave forecasting model performs well in 15- to 20-step-ahead prediction and it always dominates ARMA and Random Walk in correct direction prediction.

The Health and Social Security Act 1984 and the price of spectacles among corporate practices in the United Kingdom (1980-2007): a review.

PubMed

Calver, Richard

2010-03-01

The Health and Social Security Act 1984 deregulated certain aspects of optometry in the United Kingdom, including advertising and the supply of spectacles, in the hope that greater competition would reduce spectacle prices. The effects of this legislation are tested by plotting the mean prices of private spectacles purchased from corporate optometric practices, from 1980 to 2007. Historical evidence is used to gauge the effect on prices of other factors such as National Health Service (NHS) payments, sight test fees and pressure exerted by consumer organisations. The high prices in 1980 reduced markedly throughout the rest of the 1980s, remained low for most of the 1990s and rose between 1999 and 2003, before falling. Changes in price were associated with changes to the system of NHS payments and variations in private sight test fees, but prices have generally been lower since the deregulation of dispensing than they were before. Although the price of private spectacles remains heavily influenced by other factors, the deregulation of opticians' services has benefited the public by maintaining lower prices, as intended by proponents of the legislation.

Implementation of fuzzy logic to determining selling price of products in a local corporate chain store

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristiana, S. P. D.

2017-12-01

Corporate chain store is one type of retail industries companies that are developing growing rapidly in Indonesia. The competition between retail companies is very tight, so retailer companies should evaluate its performance continuously in order to survive. The selling price of products is one of the essential attributes and gets attention of many consumers where it’s used to evaluate the performance of the industry. This research aimed to determine optimal selling price of product with considering cost factors, namely purchase price of the product from supplier, holding costs, and transportation costs. Fuzzy logic approach is used in data processing with MATLAB software. Fuzzy logic is selected to solve the problem because this method can consider complexities factors. The result is a model of determination of the optimal selling price by considering three cost factors as inputs in the model. Calculating MAPE and model prediction ability for some products are used as validation and verification where the average value is 0.0525 for MAPE and 94.75% for prediction ability. The conclusion is this model can predict the selling price of up to 94.75%, so it can be used as tools for the corporate chain store in particular to determine the optimal selling price for its products.

Turbulent cascades in foreign exchange markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghashghaie, S.; Breymann, W.; Peinke, J.; Talkner, P.; Dodge, Y.

1996-06-01

THE availability of high-frequency data for financial markets has made it possible to study market dynamics on timescales of less than a day1. For foreign exchange (FX) rates Müller et al.2 have shown that there is a net flow of information from long to short timescales: the behaviour of long-term traders (who watch the markets only from time to time) influences the behaviour of short-term traders (who watch the markets continuously). Motivated by this hierarchical feature, we have studied FX market dynamics in more detail, and report here an analogy between these dynamics and hydrodynamic turbulence3-8. Specifically, the relationship between the probability density of FX price changes (δx) and the time delay (δt) (Fig. la) is much the same as the relationship between the probability density of the velocity differences (δv) of two points in a turbulent flow and their spatial separation δr (Fig. 1b). Guided by this similarity we claim that there is an information cascade in FX market dynamics that corresponds to the energy cascade in hydrodynamic turbulence. On the basis of this analogy we can now rationalize the statistics of FX price differences at different time delays, which is important for, for example, option pricing. The analogy also provides a conceptual framework for understanding the short-term dynamics of speculative markets.

Analysis of Food Hub Commerce and Participation Using Agent-Based Modeling: Integrating Financial and Social Drivers.

PubMed

Krejci, Caroline C; Stone, Richard T; Dorneich, Michael C; Gilbert, Stephen B

2016-02-01

Factors influencing long-term viability of an intermediated regional food supply network (food hub) were modeled using agent-based modeling techniques informed by interview data gathered from food hub participants. Previous analyses of food hub dynamics focused primarily on financial drivers rather than social factors and have not used mathematical models. Based on qualitative and quantitative data gathered from 22 customers and 11 vendors at a midwestern food hub, an agent-based model (ABM) was created with distinct consumer personas characterizing the range of consumer priorities. A comparison study determined if the ABM behaved differently than a model based on traditional economic assumptions. Further simulation studies assessed the effect of changes in parameters, such as producer reliability and the consumer profiles, on long-term food hub sustainability. The persona-based ABM model produced different and more resilient results than the more traditional way of modeling consumers. Reduced producer reliability significantly reduced trade; in some instances, a modest reduction in reliability threatened the sustainability of the system. Finally, a modest increase in price-driven consumers at the outset of the simulation quickly resulted in those consumers becoming a majority of the overall customer base. Results suggest that social factors, such as desire to support the community, can be more important than financial factors. An ABM of food hub dynamics, based on human factors data gathered from the field, can be a useful tool for policy decisions. Similar approaches can be used for modeling customer dynamics with other sustainable organizations. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

The wave-equivalent of the Black-Scholes option price: an interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haven, Emmanuel

2004-12-01

We propose an interpretation of the wave-equivalent of the Black-Scholes option price. We consider Nelson's version of the Brownian motion (Dynamical Theories of Brownian Motion, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 1967) and we use this specific motion as an input to produce a Black-Scholes PDE with a risk premium.

Income Tax Policy and Charitable Giving

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brooks, Arthur C.

2007-01-01

Many studies over the past 20 years have looked at the response of charitable donations to tax incentives--the tax price elasticity of giving. Generally, authors have assumed this elasticity is constant across all types of giving. Using the 2001 Panel Study of Income Dynamics data on charitable giving, this paper estimates the tax price elasticity…

Value-Based Pricing and Reimbursement in Personalised Healthcare: Introduction to the Basic Health Economics

PubMed Central

Garrison, Louis P.; Towse, Adrian

2017-01-01

‘Value-based’ outcomes, pricing, and reimbursement are widely discussed as health sector reforms these days. In this paper, we discuss their meaning and relationship in the context of personalized healthcare, defined as receipt of care conditional on the results of a biomarker-based diagnostic test. We address the question: “What kinds of pricing and reimbursement models should be applied in personalized healthcare?” The simple answer is that competing innovators and technology adopters should have incentives that promote long-term dynamic efficiency. We argue that—to meet this social objective of optimal innovation in personalized healthcare—payers, as agents of their plan participants, should aim to send clear signals to their suppliers about what they value. We begin by revisiting the concept of value from an economic perspective, and argue that a broader concept of value is needed in the context of personalized healthcare. We discuss the market for personalized healthcare and the interplay between price and reimbursement. We close by emphasizing the potential barrier posed by inflexible or cost-based reimbursement systems, especially for biomarker-based predictive tests, and how these personalized technologies have global public goods characteristics that require global value-based differential pricing to achieve dynamic efficiency in terms of the optimal rate of innovation and adoption. PMID:28869571

Value-Based Pricing and Reimbursement in Personalised Healthcare: Introduction to the Basic Health Economics.

PubMed

Garrison, Louis P; Towse, Adrian

2017-09-04

'Value-based' outcomes, pricing, and reimbursement are widely discussed as health sector reforms these days. In this paper, we discuss their meaning and relationship in the context of personalized healthcare, defined as receipt of care conditional on the results of a biomarker-based diagnostic test. We address the question: "What kinds of pricing and reimbursement models should be applied in personalized healthcare?" The simple answer is that competing innovators and technology adopters should have incentives that promote long-term dynamic efficiency. We argue that-to meet this social objective of optimal innovation in personalized healthcare-payers, as agents of their plan participants, should aim to send clear signals to their suppliers about what they value. We begin by revisiting the concept of value from an economic perspective, and argue that a broader concept of value is needed in the context of personalized healthcare. We discuss the market for personalized healthcare and the interplay between price and reimbursement. We close by emphasizing the potential barrier posed by inflexible or cost-based reimbursement systems, especially for biomarker-based predictive tests, and how these personalized technologies have global public goods characteristics that require global value-based differential pricing to achieve dynamic efficiency in terms of the optimal rate of innovation and adoption.

Econophysics of adaptive power markets: When a market does not dampen fluctuations but amplifies them

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, Sebastian M.; Börries, Stefan; Bornholdt, Stefan

2015-07-01

The average economic agent is often used to model the dynamics of simple markets, based on the assumption that the dynamics of a system of many agents can be averaged over in time and space. A popular idea that is based on this seemingly intuitive notion is to dampen electric power fluctuations from fluctuating sources (as, e.g., wind or solar) via a market mechanism, namely by variable power prices that adapt demand to supply. The standard model of an average economic agent predicts that fluctuations are reduced by such an adaptive pricing mechanism. However, the underlying assumption that the actions of all agents average out on the time axis is not always true in a market of many agents. We numerically study an econophysics agent model of an adaptive power market that does not assume averaging a priori. We find that when agents are exposed to source noise via correlated price fluctuations (as adaptive pricing schemes suggest), the market may amplify those fluctuations. In particular, small price changes may translate to large load fluctuations through catastrophic consumer synchronization. As a result, an adaptive power market may cause the opposite effect than intended: Power demand fluctuations are not dampened but amplified instead.

Fractal patterns in Stock Intertrading Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Ainslie; Lee, Youngki; Ivanov, Plamen Ch.

2003-03-01

We study intertrades times (ITT) of stock trades of a range of companies included in the New York Stock Exchange's Trades and Quotes (TAQ) database. The time between transactions is an indicator of the dynamics of the market, and in the field of econometrics, intertrade durations play a key role in the understanding of the market activity and microstructure. Previous work has mainly focused on the properties of price changes of individual company stocks as well as global financial indices (e.g. SP500, DJ etc.). We hypothesize that there is a relation between the dynamics of price change and the trading activity. To investigate this relation we first study the statistical features of ITT data. The TAQ database covers all transactions on the NSE, AMEX, NASDAQ and the US regional exchanges. We have performed a preliminary analysis of 100 company stocks from a range of industries of the US economy selecting predominantly those companies which have large market capitalisations (MC). We focus on companies with large MC, since the dynamics of the price change and trading activity of stocks of such companies has a considerable impact on the market behaviour.

Are crude oil markets multifractal? Evidence from MF-DFA and MF-SSA perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Ling-Yun; Chen, Shu-Peng

2010-08-01

In this article, we investigated the multifractality and its underlying formation mechanisms in international crude oil markets, namely, Brent and WTI, which are the most important oil pricing benchmarks globally. We attempt to find the answers to the following questions: (1) Are those different markets multifractal? (2) What are the dynamical causes for multifractality in those markets (if any)? To answer these questions, we applied both multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal singular spectrum analysis (MF-SSA) based on the partition function, two widely used multifractality detecting methods. We found that both markets exhibit multifractal properties by means of these methods. Furthermore, in order to identify the underlying formation mechanisms of multifractal features, we destroyed the underlying nonlinear temporal correlation by shuffling the original time series; thus, we identified that the causes of the multifractality are influenced mainly by a nonlinear temporal correlation mechanism instead of a non-Gaussian distribution. At last, by tracking the evolution of left- and right-half multifractal spectra, we found that the dynamics of the large price fluctuations is significantly different from that of the small ones. Our main contribution is that we not only provided empirical evidence of the existence of multifractality in the markets, but also the sources of multifractality and plausible explanations to current literature; furthermore, we investigated the different dynamical price behaviors influenced by large and small price fluctuations.

Food security in an era of economic volatility.

PubMed

Naylor, Rosamond L; Falcon, Walter P

2010-01-01

This article analyzes international commodity price movements, assesses food policies in response to price fluctuations, and explores the food security implications of price volatility on low-income groups. It focuses specifically on measurements, causes, and consequences of recent food price trends, variability around those trends, and price spikes. Combining these three components of price dynamics shows that the variation in real prices post-2000 was substantially greater than that in the 1980s and 1990s, and was approximately equal to the extreme volatility in commodity prices that was experienced in the 1970s. Macro policy, exchange rates, and petroleum prices were important determinants of price variability over 2005–2010, highlighting the new linkages between the agriculture-energy and agriculture-finance markets that affect the world food economy today. These linkages contributed in large part to misguided expectations and uncertainty that drove prices to their peak in 2008. The article also argues that there is a long-lasting effect of price spikes on food policy around the world, often resulting in self-sufficiency policies that create even more volatility in international markets. The efforts by governments to stabilize prices frequently contribute to even greater food insecurity among poor households, most of which are in rural areas and survive on the margin of net consumption and net production. Events of 2008—and more recently in 2010—underscore the impact of price variability for food security and the need for refocused policy approaches to prevent and mitigate price spikes.

Latent factor structure of a behavioral economic cigarette demand curve in adolescent smokers.

PubMed

Bidwell, L Cinnamon; MacKillop, James; Murphy, James G; Tidey, Jennifer W; Colby, Suzanne M

2012-11-01

Behavioral economic demand curves, or quantitative representations of drug consumption across a range of prices, have been used to assess motivation for a variety of drugs. Such curves generate multiple measures of drug demand that are associated with cigarette consumption and nicotine dependence. However, little is known about the relationships among these facets of demand. The aim of the study was to quantify these relationships in adolescent smokers by using exploratory factor analysis to examine the underlying structure of the facets of nicotine incentive value generated from a demand curve measure. Participants were 138 adolescent smokers who completed a hypothetical cigarette purchase task, which assessed estimated cigarette consumption at escalating levels of price/cigarette. Demand curves and five facets of demand were generated from the measure: Elasticity (i.e., 1/α or proportionate price sensitivity); Intensity (i.e., consumption at zero price); O(max) (i.e., maximum financial expenditure on cigarettes); P(max) (i.e., price at which expenditure is maximized); and Breakpoint (i.e., the price that suppresses consumption to zero). Principal components analysis was used to examine the latent structure among the variables. The results revealed a two-factor solution, which were interpreted as "Persistence," reflecting insensitivity to escalating price, and "Amplitude," reflecting the absolute levels of consumption and price. These findings suggest a two factor structure of nicotine incentive value as measured via a demand curve. If supported, these findings have implications for understanding the relationships among individual demand indices in future behavioral economic studies and may further contribute to understanding of the nature of cigarette reinforcement. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Liquidity crisis, granularity of the order book and price fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristelli, M.; Alfi, V.; Pietronero, L.; Zaccaria, A.

2010-01-01

We introduce a microscopic model for the dynamics of the order book to study how the lack of liquidity influences price fluctuations. We use the average density of the stored orders (granularity g) as a proxy for liquidity. This leads to a Price Impact Surface which depends on both volume ω and g. The dependence on the volume (averaged over the granularity) of the Price Impact Surface is found to be a concave power law function <φ(ω,g)>g ˜ ωδ with δ ≈ 0.59. Instead the dependence on the granularity is φ(ω,g|ω) ˜ gα with α ≈ -1, showing a divergence of price fluctuations in the limit g → 0. Moreover, even in intermediate situations of finite liquidity, this effect can be very large and it is a natural candidate for understanding the origin of large price fluctuations.

The Effects of Market Concentration on Residential Solar PV Prices: Competition, Installer Scale, and Soft Costs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

OShaughnessy, Eric J

Competition among residential solar photovoltaic (PV) installers may reduce PV price markups and yield lower prices. At the same time, competition may reduce installer experience and opportunities for cost reductions through learning-by-doing and economies of scale. These dynamics suggest that PV non-hardware or 'soft' costs and installed prices depend on the distribution of market shares among installers, also known as market concentration. This study leverages a rich data set of 226,769 residential PV systems to examine the relationship between market concentration, soft costs, and PV prices. The results show that PV prices are lower, on average, in more concentrated markets,more » i.e., markets with fewer installers or where few installers hold high market share. The study provides evidence that this relationship is non-linear, such that prices are minimized in markets with an optimal balance of the benefits of market concentration and the benefits of competition.« less

Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market.

PubMed

Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Rego, Henio H A; Silva, Jonathas N; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H Eugene

2017-01-01

Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index-both generated by our model-are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant.

Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market

PubMed Central

Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Rego, Henio H. A.; Vodenska, Irena; Stanley, H. Eugene

2017-01-01

Using an agent-based model we examine the dynamics of stock price fluctuations and their rates of return in an artificial financial market composed of fundamentalist and chartist agents with and without confidence. We find that chartist agents who are confident generate higher price and rate of return volatilities than those who are not. We also find that kurtosis and skewness are lower in our simulation study of agents who are not confident. We show that the stock price and confidence index—both generated by our model—are cointegrated and that stock price affects confidence index but confidence index does not affect stock price. We next compare the results of our model with the S&P 500 index and its respective stock market confidence index using cointegration and Granger tests. As in our model, we find that stock prices drive their respective confidence indices, but that the opposite relationship, i.e., the assumption that confidence indices drive stock prices, is not significant. PMID:28231255

Impacts of Base-Case and Post-Contingency Constraint Relaxations on Static and Dynamic Operational Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salloum, Ahmed

Constraint relaxation by definition means that certain security, operational, or financial constraints are allowed to be violated in the energy market model for a predetermined penalty price. System operators utilize this mechanism in an effort to impose a price-cap on shadow prices throughout the market. In addition, constraint relaxations can serve as corrective approximations that help in reducing the occurrence of infeasible or extreme solutions in the day-ahead markets. This work aims to capture the impact constraint relaxations have on system operational security. Moreover, this analysis also provides a better understanding of the correlation between DC market models and AC real-time systems and analyzes how relaxations in market models propagate to real-time systems. This information can be used not only to assess the criticality of constraint relaxations, but also as a basis for determining penalty prices more accurately. Constraint relaxations practice was replicated in this work using a test case and a real-life large-scale system, while capturing both energy market aspects and AC real-time system performance. System performance investigation included static and dynamic security analysis for base-case and post-contingency operating conditions. PJM peak hour loads were dynamically modeled in order to capture delayed voltage recovery and sustained depressed voltage profiles as a result of reactive power deficiency caused by constraint relaxations. Moreover, impacts of constraint relaxations on operational system security were investigated when risk based penalty prices are used. Transmission lines in the PJM system were categorized according to their risk index and each category was as-signed a different penalty price accordingly in order to avoid real-time overloads on high risk lines. This work also extends the investigation of constraint relaxations to post-contingency relaxations, where emergency limits are allowed to be relaxed in energy market models. Various scenarios were investigated to capture and compare between the impacts of base-case and post-contingency relaxations on real-time system performance, including the presence of both relaxations simultaneously. The effect of penalty prices on the number and magnitude of relaxations was investigated as well.

Grid integration and smart grid implementation of emerging technologies in electric power systems through approximate dynamic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Jingjie

A key hurdle for implementing real-time pricing of electricity is a lack of consumers' responses. Solutions to overcome the hurdle include the energy management system that automatically optimizes household appliance usage such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicle charging (and discharging with vehicle-to-grid) via a two-way communication with the grid. Real-time pricing, combined with household automation devices, has a potential to accommodate an increasing penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. In addition, the intelligent energy controller on the consumer-side can help increase the utilization rate of the intermittent renewable resource, as the demand can be managed to match the output profile of renewables, thus making the intermittent resource such as wind and solar more economically competitive in the long run. One of the main goals of this dissertation is to present how real-time retail pricing, aided by control automation devices, can be integrated into the wholesale electricity market under various uncertainties through approximate dynamic programming. What distinguishes this study from the existing work in the literature is that whole- sale electricity prices are endogenously determined as we solve a system operator's economic dispatch problem on an hourly basis over the entire optimization horizon. This modeling and algorithm framework will allow a feedback loop between electricity prices and electricity consumption to be fully captured. While we are interested in a near-optimal solution using approximate dynamic programming; deterministic linear programming benchmarks are use to demonstrate the quality of our solutions. The other goal of the dissertation is to use this framework to provide numerical evidence to the debate on whether real-time pricing is superior than the current flat rate structure in terms of both economic and environmental impacts. For this purpose, the modeling and algorithm framework is tested on a large-scale test case with hundreds of power plants based on data available for California, making our findings useful for policy makers, system operators and utility companies to gain a concrete understanding on the scale of the impact with real-time pricing.

Global Phosphorus Fertilizer Market and National Policies: A Case Study Revisiting the 2008 Price Peak.

PubMed

Khabarov, Nikolay; Obersteiner, Michael

2017-01-01

The commodity market super-cycle and food price crisis have been associated with rampant food insecurity and the Arab spring. A multitude of factors were identified as culprits for excessive volatility on the commodity markets. However, as it regards fertilizers, a clear attribution of market drivers explaining the emergence of extreme price events is still missing. In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of the price spike of the global phosphorus fertilizer market in 2008 focusing on diammonium phosphate (DAP). We find that fertilizer market policies in India, the largest global importer of phosphorus fertilizers and phosphate rock, turned out to be a major contributor to the global price spike. India doubled its import of P-fertilizer in 2008 at a time when prices doubled. The analysis of a wide set of factors pertinent to the 2008 price spike in phosphorus fertilizer market leads us to the discovery of a price spike magnification and triggering mechanisms. We find that the price spike was magnified on the one hand by protective trade measures of fertilizer suppliers leading to a 19% drop in global phosphate fertilizer export. On the other hand, the Indian fertilizer subsidy scheme led to farmers not adjusting their demand for fertilizer. The triggering mechanism appeared to be the Indian production outage of P-fertilizer resulting in the additional import demand for DAP in size of about 20% of annual global supply. The main conclusion is that these three factors have jointly caused the spike, underscoring the need for ex ante improvements in fertilizer market regulation on both national and international levels.

Tick size reduction and price clustering in a FX order book

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lallouache, Mehdi; Abergel, Frédéric

2014-12-01

We investigate the statistical properties of the EBS order book for the EUR/USD and USD/JPY currency pairs and the impact of a ten-fold tick size reduction on its dynamics. A large fraction of limit orders are still placed right at or halfway between the old allowed prices. This generates price barriers where the best quotes lie for much of the time, which causes the emergence of distinct peaks in the average shape of the book at round distances. Furthermore, we argue that this clustering is mainly due to manual traders who remained set to the old price resolution. Automatic traders easily take price priority by submitting limit orders one tick ahead of clusters, as shown by the prominence of buy (sell) limit orders posted with rightmost digit one (nine).

76 FR 74093 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; EDGX Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-30

.... Like options, the price of rights and warrants are affected by the price of the underlying stock as well as other factors, particularly the volatility of the stock. As a consequence, the prices of rights and warrants may move more dramatically than the prices of the underlying stocks even when the rights...

Evaluation of fuel usage factors in highway construction in Oregon.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-05-01

Prices for different construction materials change frequently. In recent years, the price for these different materials has dramatically increased. This result leads contractors to inflate the bid price for a construction project in order to cover th...

Cost-savings for biosimilars in the United States: a theoretical framework and budget impact case study application using filgrastim.

PubMed

Grewal, Simrun; Ramsey, Scott; Balu, Sanjeev; Carlson, Josh J

2018-05-18

Biosimilars can directly reduce the cost of treating patients for whom a reference biologic is indicated by offering a highly similar, lower priced alternative. We examine factors related to biosimilar regulatory approval, uptake, pricing, and financing and the potential impact on drug expenditures in the U.S. We developed a framework to illustrate how key factors including regulatory policies, provider and patient perception, pricing, and payer policies impact biosimilar cost-savings. Further, we developed a budget impact cost model to estimate savings from filgrastim biosimilars under various scenarios. The model uses publicly available data on disease incidence, treatment patterns, market share, and drug prices to estimate the cost-savings over a 5-year time horizon. We estimate five-year cost savings of $256 million, of which 18% ($47 million) are from reduced patient out-of-pocket costs, 34% ($86 million) are savings to commercial payers, and 48% ($123 million) are savings for Medicare. Additional scenarios demonstrate the impact of uncertain factors, including price, uptake, and financing policies. A variety or interrelated factors influence the development, uptake, and cost-savings for Biosimilars use in the U.S. The filgrastim case is a useful example that illustrates these factors and the potential magnitude of costs savings.

Factors Affecting the Relationship between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices (released in AEO2010)

EIA Publications

2010-01-01

Over the 1995-2005 period, crude oil prices and U.S. natural gas prices tended to move together, which supported the conclusion that the markets for the two commodities were connected. Figure 26 illustrates the fairly stable ratio over that period between the price of low-sulfur light crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, and the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub on an energy-equivalent basis.

Research on the factors influencing the price of commercial housing based on support vector machine (SVM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiaoyang, Zhong; Hong, Ren; Jingxin, Gao

2018-03-01

With the gradual maturity of the real estate market in China, urban housing prices are also better able to reflect changes in market demand and the commodity property of commercial housing has become more and more obvious. Many scholars in our country have made a lot of research on the factors that affect the price of commercial housing in the city and the number of related research papers increased rapidly. These scholars’ research results provide valuable wealth to solve the problem of urban housing price changes in our country. However, due to the huge amount of literature, the vast amount of information is submerged in the library and cannot be fully utilized. Text mining technology has been widely concerned and developed in the field of Humanities and Social Sciences in recent years. But through the text mining technology to obtain the influence factors on the price of urban commercial housing is still relatively rare. In this paper, the research results of the existing scholars were excavated by text mining algorithm based on support vector machine in order to further make full use of the current research results and to provide a reference for stabilizing housing prices.

Incentive pricing and cost recovery at the basin scale.

PubMed

Ward, Frank A; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2009-01-01

Incentive pricing programs have potential to promote economically efficient water use patterns and provide a revenue source to compensate for environmental damages. However, incentive pricing may impose disproportionate costs and aggravate poverty where high prices are levied for basic human needs. This paper presents an analysis of a two-tiered water pricing system that sets a low price for subsistence needs, while charging a price equal to marginal cost, including environmental cost, for discretionary uses. This pricing arrangement can promote efficient and sustainable water use patterns, goals set by the European Water Framework Directive, while meeting subsistence needs of poor households. Using data from the Rio Grande Basin of North America, a dynamic nonlinear program, maximizes the basin's total net economic and environmental benefits subject to several hydrological and institutional constraints. Supply costs, environmental costs, and resource costs are integrated in a model of a river basin's hydrology, economics, and institutions. Three programs are compared: (1) Law of the River, in which water allocations and prices are determined by rules governing water transfers; (2) marginal cost pricing, in which households pay the full marginal cost of supplying treated water; (3) two-tiered pricing, in which households' subsistence water needs are priced cheaply, while discretionary uses are priced at efficient levels. Compared to the Law of the River and marginal cost pricing, two-tiered pricing performs well for efficiency and adequately for sustainability and equity. Findings provide a general framework for formulating water pricing programs that promote economically and environmentally efficient water use programs while also addressing other policy goals.

Pigouvian taxation of energy for flow and stock externalities and strategic, noncompetitive energy pricing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wirl, F.

1994-01-01

The literature on energy and carbon taxes is by and large concerned about the derivation of (globally) efficient strategies. In contrast, this paper considers the dynamic interactions between cartelized energy suppliers and a consumers' government that collectively taxes energy carriers for Pigouvian motives. Two different kinds of external costs are associated with energy consumption: flow (e.g., acid rain) and stock externalities (e.g., global warming). The dynamic interactions between a consumers' government and a producers' cartel are modeled as a differential game with a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium in linear and nonlinear Markov strategies. The major implications are that the nonlinearmore » solutions are Pareto-inferior to the linear strategies and energy suppliers may preempt energy taxation and thereby may raise the price at front; however, this effect diminishes over time because the producers' price declines, while taxes increase. 22 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.« less

Evaluation of fuel usage factors in highway construction in Oregon : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-05-01

Prices for different construction materials change frequently. In recent years, the price for these different materials has dramatically increased. This result leads contractors to inflate the bid price for a construction project in order to cover th...

Understanding Price Formation in Electricity Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadoya, Toshihisa; Sasaki, Tetsuo; Yokoyama, Akihiko; Ihara, Satoru

The electricity price will influence the future growth and mix of generation capacity that will in turn influence the future electricity price, and therefore, it is important to understand how electricity price is formed as well as its short-term and long-term impacts on the economy. This paper describes evaluation of PJM day-ahead market bidding data and comparison of various electricity markets in terms of the market clearing price and volatility. The objective is to find critical factors and mechanisms determining the movements of electricity price. It was found that speculation by a small number of bidders can cause price spikes, that a Nash equilibrium may exist during a delayed response of the electricity price to a decline of the fuel price, and that the hydro generation with storage capability effectively stabilizes the electricity price.

Dynamic reserve selection: Optimal land retention with land-price feedbacks

Treesearch

Sandor F. Toth; Robert G. Haight; Luke W. Rogers

2011-01-01

Urban growth compromises open space and ecosystem functions. To mitigate the negative effects, some agencies use reserve selection models to identify conservation sites for purchase or retention. Existing models assume that conservation has no impact on nearby land prices. We propose a new integer program that relaxes this assumption via adaptive cost coefficients. Our...

Managed lane operations--adjusted time of day pricing vs. near-real time dynamic pricing : volume II, ramp signaling and variable speed limits (VSL).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-02-12

In 2008, the Florida Department of Transportation began implementing the 95 Express, a segment of I-95 in Miami with high occupancy toll (HOT) lanes. Some vehicles use HOT lanes free, but most vehicles pay a toll based on real-time traffic conditions...

Asset Prices and Trading Volume under Fixed Transactions Costs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lo, Andrew W.; Mamaysky, Harry; Wang, Jiang

2004-01-01

We propose a dynamic equilibrium model of asset prices and trading volume when agents face fixed transactions costs. We show that even small fixed costs can give rise to large "no-trade" regions for each agent's optimal trading policy. The inability to trade more frequently reduces the agents' asset demand and in equilibrium gives rise to a…

Modeling the demand-price relations in a high-frequency foreign exchange market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Anatoly B.

1999-09-01

A stochastic nonlinear dynamics model is introduced in terms of observable variables (price and excess demand assumed to be proportional to the number of buyers) to describe a high-frequency foreign exchange market. It is shown how the fundamentalist and chartist patterns of the trader behavior affect the correlation between excess demand and exchange rates.

Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen

2015-04-01

In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also defined in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems.

Examination of Parameters Affecting the House Prices by Multiple Regression Analysis and its Contributions to Earthquake-Based Urban Transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denli, H. H.; Durmus, B.

2016-12-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the factors which may affect the apartment prices with multiple linear regression analysis models and visualize the results by value maps. The study is focused on a county of Istanbul - Turkey. Totally 390 apartments around the county Umraniye are evaluated due to their physical and locational conditions. The identification of factors affecting the price of apartments in the county with a population of approximately 600k is expected to provide a significant contribution to the apartment market.Physical factors are selected as the age, number of rooms, size, floor numbers of the building and the floor that the apartment is positioned in. Positional factors are selected as the distances to the nearest hospital, school, park and police station. Totally ten physical and locational parameters are examined by regression analysis.After the regression analysis has been performed, value maps are composed from the parameters age, price and price per square meters. The most significant of the composed maps is the price per square meters map. Results show that the location of the apartment has the most influence to the square meter price information of the apartment. A different practice is developed from the composed maps by searching the ability of using price per square meters map in urban transformation practices. By marking the buildings older than 15 years in the price per square meters map, a different and new interpretation has been made to determine the buildings, to which should be given priority during an urban transformation in the county.This county is very close to the North Anatolian Fault zone and is under the threat of earthquakes. By marking the apartments older than 15 years on the price per square meters map, both older and expensive square meters apartments list can be gathered. By the help of this list, the priority could be given to the selected higher valued old apartments to support the economy of the country during an earthquake loss. We may call this urban transformation as earthquake-based urban transformation.

76 FR 74084 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-30

... price of rights and warrants are affected by the price of the underlying stock as well as other factors, particularly the volatility of the stock. As a consequence, the prices of rights and warrants may move more dramatically than the prices of the underlying stocks even when the rights and warrants (and the underlying...

The effect of a major cigarette price change on smoking behavior in california: a zero-inflated negative binomial model.

PubMed

Sheu, Mei-Ling; Hu, Teh-Wei; Keeler, Theodore E; Ong, Michael; Sung, Hai-Yen

2004-08-01

The objective of this paper is to determine the price sensitivity of smokers in their consumption of cigarettes, using evidence from a major increase in California cigarette prices due to Proposition 10 and the Tobacco Settlement. The study sample consists of individual survey data from Behavioral Risk Factor Survey (BRFS) and price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics between 1996 and 1999. A zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model was applied for the statistical analysis. The statistical model showed that price did not have an effect on reducing the estimated prevalence of smoking. However, it indicated that among smokers the price elasticity was at the level of -0.46 and statistically significant. Since smoking prevalence is significantly lower than it was a decade ago, price increases are becoming less effective as an inducement for hard-core smokers to quit, although they may respond by decreasing consumption. For those who only smoke occasionally (many of them being young adults) price increases alone may not be an effective inducement to quit smoking. Additional underlying behavioral factors need to be identified so that more effective anti-smoking strategies can be developed.

Characteristics of low-priced solar PV systems in the U.S.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nemet, Gregory F.; O’Shaughnessy, Eric; Wiser, Ryan

Despite impressive declines in average prices, there is wide dispersion in the prices of U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) systems; prices span more than a factor of four. What are the characteristics of the systems with low-prices? Using detailed characteristics of 42,611 small-scale (<15 kW) PV systems installed in 15 U.S. states during 2013, we identify the most important factors that make a system likely to be low-priced (LP). Comparing LP and non-LP systems, we find statistically significant differences in nearly all characteristics for which we have data. Logit and probit model results robustly indicate that LP systems are associated with:more » markets with few active installers; experienced installers; customer ownership; large systems; retrofits; and thin-film, low-efficiency, and Chinese modules. We also find significant differences across states, with LP systems much more likely to occur in some states, such as Arizona, New Jersey, and New Mexico, and less likely in others, such as California. Our focus on the left tail of the price distribution provides implications for policy that are distinct from recent studies of mean prices. While those studies find that PV subsidies increase mean prices, we find that subsidies also generate LP systems. PV subsidies appear to simultaneously shift and broaden the price distribution. Much of this broadening occurs in a particular location, northern California.« less

Handling Dynamic Weights in Weighted Frequent Pattern Mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Chowdhury Farhan; Tanbeer, Syed Khairuzzaman; Jeong, Byeong-Soo; Lee, Young-Koo

Even though weighted frequent pattern (WFP) mining is more effective than traditional frequent pattern mining because it can consider different semantic significances (weights) of items, existing WFP algorithms assume that each item has a fixed weight. But in real world scenarios, the weight (price or significance) of an item can vary with time. Reflecting these changes in item weight is necessary in several mining applications, such as retail market data analysis and web click stream analysis. In this paper, we introduce the concept of a dynamic weight for each item, and propose an algorithm, DWFPM (dynamic weighted frequent pattern mining), that makes use of this concept. Our algorithm can address situations where the weight (price or significance) of an item varies dynamically. It exploits a pattern growth mining technique to avoid the level-wise candidate set generation-and-test methodology. Furthermore, it requires only one database scan, so it is eligible for use in stream data mining. An extensive performance analysis shows that our algorithm is efficient and scalable for WFP mining using dynamic weights.

Dynamic Evolution of Financial Network and its Relation to Economic Crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Ya-Chun; Wei, Zong-Wen; Wang, Bing-Hong

2013-02-01

The static topology properties of financial networks have been widely investigated since the work done by Mantegna, yet their dynamic evolution with time is little considered. In this paper, we comprehensively study the dynamic evolution of financial network by a sliding window technique. The vertices and edges of financial network are represented by the stocks from S&P500 components and correlations between pairs of daily returns of price fluctuation, respectively. Furthermore, the duration of stock price fluctuation, spanning from January 4, 1985 to September 14, 2009, makes us to carefully observe the relation between the dynamic topological properties and big financial crashes. The empirical results suggest that the financial network has the robust small-world property when the time evolves, and the topological structure drastically changes when the big financial crashes occur. This correspondence between the dynamic evolution of financial network and big financial crashes may provide a novel view to understand the origin of economic crisis.

Pricing Policy and the College Choice Process.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chapman, Randall G.

1979-01-01

A marketing management paradigm for academe is discussed along with aspects of the pricing policy process. The two most important factors affecting the college choice process are shown to be college quality and price-related considerations. Implications for marketing are discussed. (Author/LBH)

What cigarette price is required for smokers to attempt to quit smoking? Findings from the ITC Korea Waves 2 and 3 Survey.

PubMed

Park, Eun-Ja; Park, Susan; Cho, Sung-il; Kim, Yeol; Seo, Hong Gwan; Driezen, Pete; Quah, Anne C K; Fong, Geoffrey T

2015-07-01

We assess the cigarette price that would motivate smokers to quit. We also explore the factors associated with the required price, including exposures to non-tax tobacco control policies. Cross-sectional analysis was conducted on data from 1257 male smokers, who participated in either Wave 2 or 3 of the ITC Korea Survey. Information was obtained on what cigarette price per pack would make them try to quit ('price to quit'). Tobit regression on log-transformed price and logistic regression on non-quitting were conducted to identify associated factors. The median price to quit was KRW5854 (US$5.31)/pack, given the current price of KRW2500 (US$2.27)/pack. Younger age, higher education, lack of concern about the health effects of smoking, lack of quit attempts and more cigarettes consumed per day were related to a higher price needed for a quit attempt. Exposures to combinations of non-tax policies were significantly associated with lower price levels to be motivated to quit. Considering the large price increase required for quit attempts, tax policy needs to be combined with other policies, particularly for certain groups, such as heavy smokers. Strengthening non-tax policies is likely to facilitate greater responsiveness to tax policy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Multifractality of sectoral price indices: Hurst signature analysis of Cantillon effects in disequilibrium factor markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulligan, Robert F.

2014-06-01

This paper presents Hurst exponent signatures from time series of aggregate price indices for the US over the 1975-2011 time period. Though all highly aggregated, these indices include both broad measures of consumer and producer prices. The constellation of prices evolves as a complex system throughout processes of production and distribution, culminating in the final delivery of output to consumers. Massive feedback characterizes this system, where the demand for consumable output determines the demand for the inputs used to produce it, and supply scarcities for the necessary inputs in turn determine the supply of the final product. Prices in both factor and output markets are jointly determined by interdependent supply and demand conditions. Fractal examination of the interplay among market prices would be of interest regardless, but added interest arises from the consideration of how these markets respond to external shocks over the business cycle, particularly monetary expansion. Because the initial impact of monetary injection is localized in specific sectors, the way the impact on prices diffuses throughout the economy is of special interest.

Errata, nursing homes. Budget percentiles for baseline and redesigned commercial type buildings: cities with try weather tapes; based on resource utilization factors (RUF); based on price weighting factors (PWF)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

Corrected data are presented for the P50 Redesign figure for nursing homes in the following documents in the series entitled Budget Percentiles for Baseline and Redesigned Commercial Type Buildings: For Cities with TRY Weather Tapes, Based on Price Weighing Factors (PWF), and Based on Resource Utilization Factors (RUF). (MCW)

Global Phosphorus Fertilizer Market and National Policies: A Case Study Revisiting the 2008 Price Peak

PubMed Central

Khabarov, Nikolay; Obersteiner, Michael

2017-01-01

The commodity market super-cycle and food price crisis have been associated with rampant food insecurity and the Arab spring. A multitude of factors were identified as culprits for excessive volatility on the commodity markets. However, as it regards fertilizers, a clear attribution of market drivers explaining the emergence of extreme price events is still missing. In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of the price spike of the global phosphorus fertilizer market in 2008 focusing on diammonium phosphate (DAP). We find that fertilizer market policies in India, the largest global importer of phosphorus fertilizers and phosphate rock, turned out to be a major contributor to the global price spike. India doubled its import of P-fertilizer in 2008 at a time when prices doubled. The analysis of a wide set of factors pertinent to the 2008 price spike in phosphorus fertilizer market leads us to the discovery of a price spike magnification and triggering mechanisms. We find that the price spike was magnified on the one hand by protective trade measures of fertilizer suppliers leading to a 19% drop in global phosphate fertilizer export. On the other hand, the Indian fertilizer subsidy scheme led to farmers not adjusting their demand for fertilizer. The triggering mechanism appeared to be the Indian production outage of P-fertilizer resulting in the additional import demand for DAP in size of about 20% of annual global supply. The main conclusion is that these three factors have jointly caused the spike, underscoring the need for ex ante improvements in fertilizer market regulation on both national and international levels. PMID:28660192

Market penetration of biodiesel and ethanol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szulczyk, Kenneth Ray

This dissertation examines the influence that economic and technological factors have on the penetration of biodiesel and ethanol into the transportation fuels market. This dissertation focuses on four aspects. The first involves the influence of fossil fuel prices, because biofuels are substitutes and have to compete in price. The second involves biofuel manufacturing technology, principally the feedstock-to-biofuel conversion rates, and the biofuel manufacturing costs. The third involves prices for greenhouse gas offsets. The fourth involves the agricultural commodity markets for feedstocks, and biofuel byproducts. This dissertation uses the Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model-Greenhouse Gas (FASOM-GHG) to quantitatively examine these issues and calculates equilibrium prices and quantities, given market interactions, fossil fuel prices, carbon dioxide equivalent prices, government biofuel subsidies, technological improvement, and crop yield gains. The results indicate that for the ranges studied, gasoline prices have a major impact on aggregate ethanol production but only at low prices. At higher prices, one runs into a capacity constraint that limits expansion on the capacity of ethanol production. Aggregate biodiesel production is highly responsive to gasoline prices and increases over time. (Diesel fuel price is proportional to the gasoline price). Carbon dioxide equivalent prices expand the biodiesel industry, but have no impact on ethanol aggregate production when gasoline prices are high again because of refinery capacity expansion. Improvement of crop yields shows a similar pattern, expanding ethanol production when the gasoline price is low and expanding biodiesel. Technological improvement, where biorefinery production costs decrease over time, had minimal impact on aggregate ethanol and biodiesel production. Finally, U.S. government subsidies have a large expansionary impact on aggregate biodiesel production. Finally, U.S. government subsidies have a large expansionary impact on aggregate biodiesel production, but only expand the ethanol industry at low gasoline prices. All of these factors increase agricultural welfare with most expanding producer surplus and mixed effects on consumers.

Prices and E-Cigarette Demand: Evidence From the European Union.

PubMed

Stoklosa, Michal; Drope, Jeffrey; Chaloupka, Frank J

2016-10-01

Many European Union (EU) Member States have expressed the need for EU legislation to clarify the issue of e-cigarette taxation, but the economic evidence to inform creation of such policies has been lacking. To date, only one study-on the United States only-has examined responsiveness of e-cigarette demand to price changes. We used 2011-2014 pooled time-series data on e-cigarette sales, as well as e-cigarette and cigarette prices for six EU markets (Estonia, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden, and the United Kingdom). We utilized static and dynamic fixed-effects models to estimate the own and cross-price elasticity of demand for e-cigarettes. In a separate model for Sweden, we examined the effects of snus prices on e-cigarette sales. Based on static models, every 10% increase in e-cigarette prices is associated with a drop in e-cigarettes sales of approximately 8.2%, while based on dynamic models, the drop is 2.7% in the short run and 11.5% in the long run. Combustible cigarette prices are positively associated with sales of e-cigarettes. Snus prices are positively associated with sales of e-cigarettes in Sweden. Our results indicate that the sales of e-cigarettes are responsive to price changes, which suggests that excise taxes can help governments to mitigate an increase in e-cigarette use. E-cigarettes and regular cigarettes are substitutes, with higher cigarette prices being associated with increased e-cigarette sales. Making combustible cigarettes more expensive compared to e-cigarettes could be effective in moving current combustible smokers to e-cigarettes, which might have positive health effects. This study is an exploratory analysis of the issues around e-cigarette taxation in Europe. Our results suggest that taxation is a measure that could potentially address the concerns of both opponents and proponents of e-cigarettes: taxes on e-cigarettes could be used to raise prices so as to deter e-cigarette initiation by never users, while concomitant greater tax increases on regular cigarettes could incentivize switching from combustible products to e-cigarettes. The estimates from our models suggest that e-cigarette demand is possibly more responsive to price than cigarette demand. Policymakers who consider implementing excise taxes on e-cigarettes should take this difference in price responsiveness of demand for these two products under consideration. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

78 FR 2571 - Special Access for Price Cap Local Exchange Carriers; AT&T Corporation Petition for Rulemaking To...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-11

...., observed sales and purchases). This allows for an analysis that controls for factors that may vary widely... those factors that affect providers' decisions to expand existing networks, e.g., the non-price factors... Street SW., Room CY-A257, Washington, DC 20554. The complete text may be purchased from Best Copy and...

Care and Feeding of the Money Tree: Pricing and Financial Aid Strategies and Their Market Implications at Private Colleges and Universities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zuker, Fred

2000-01-01

Considers the dilemma of higher priced college attendance from the viewpoint of private institutions. Identifies and discusses factors currently driving increase in tuition costs and also factors likely to influence relative cost in the next ten years. This discussion includes both increasing and decreasing cost factors. (VWC)

Oil prices in a new light

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fesharaki, F.

1994-05-01

For a clear picture of how oil prices develop, the author steps away from the price levels to which the world is accustomed, and evaluates scientifically. What makes prices jump from one notch to another The move results from a political or economic shock or the perception of a particular position by the futures market and the media. The shock could range from a war or an assassination to a promise of cooperation among OPEC members (when believed by the market) or to speculation about another failure at an OPEC meeting. In the oil market, only a couple of factualmore » figures can provide a floor to the price of oil. The cost of production of oil in the Gulf is around $2 to $3/bbl, and the cost of production of oil (capital and operating costs) in key non-OPEC areas is well under $10/bbl. With some adjustments for transport and quality, a price range of $13/bbl to $16/bbl would correspond to a reasonable sustainable floor price. The reason for prices above the floor price has been a continuous fear of oil supply interruptions. That fear kept prices above the floor price for many years. The fear factor has now almost fully disappeared. The market has gone through the drama of the Iranian Revolution, the Iran-Iraq war, the tanker war, the invasion of Kuwait, and the expulsions of the Iraqis. And still the oil flowed -- all the time. It has become abundantly clear that fears above the oil market were unjustified. Everyone needs to export oil, and oil will flow under the worst circumstances. The demise of the fear factor means that oil prices tend toward the floor price for a prolonged period.« less

Pricing products: juxtaposing affordability with quality appeal.

PubMed

1984-01-01

Choosing appropriate product prices is 1 of the most crucial steps in creating an effective contraceptive social marketing (CSM) sales campaign. The Social Marketing Forum conducted an informal survey of social marketing project managers, international contractors, and marketing consultants to determine how CSM programs cope with pricing problems and ways to circumvent some obstacles. According to Diana Altman, a family planning consultant, low prices that make products available to needy individuals are more important than the program's self sufficiency, yet if prices are too low, consumers think the products were unusable in the US and thus were dumped on local markets. Other key factors include commercial competition, spiraling inflation rates, and problems with rising prices and retailer/distributor margins. A sampling of per capita gross national products indicates the poverty level of most CSM projects' target market. Consequently, CSM projects must set low pices, regardless of program operating costs. The goal often is to increase the demand and availability for contraceptives. The fact that social marketing products must pass through retail networks to reach consumers complicates the pricing equation. To deal with the problem, India's Nirodh program gives a 25% margin to distributors/wholesalers, compared to 6% offered on most other goods. Retailers also receive a 25% margin, more than double the commercial rate. Once prices are set, increases pose hazards. Local government approval often is a prerequisite and can require lengthy negotiations. Market studies remain a valuable approach to effective pricing, according to PNA's Mallamad and other research consultants. They cite such effective research strategies as test marketing products and asking consumers how prices affect buying habits. Further, CSM projects can jump over some pricing hurdles through creative marketing. An effective pricing strategy alone cannot produce a successful CSM program. Pricing must accompany such factors as strong advertising, committed management, and adept salespersons.

The influencing factors of China carbon price: a study based on carbon trading market in hubei province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hao; Lei, Ming

2018-02-01

For the carbon market, good trading mechanism is the basis for the healthy development of the carbon trading market. In order to explore the core problem of carbon price formation, our research explores the influencing factors of the price of carbon trading market. After the preliminary statistical analysis, our study found that Hubei Province is in the leading position among seven pilots in the carbon trading volume and the transaction, so our study of carbon price takes Hubei Province as sample of the empirical research. Multi-time series model and ARCH model analysis method are used in the research, we use the data of Hubei carbon trading pilot from June 2014 to December 2016 to carry out empirical research, the results found that industrial income, energy price, government intervention and the number of participating corporation have significant effect on the carbon price, which provides a meaningful reference for the other pilots in-depth study, as well as the construction of a national carbon trading market.

Modeling Inflation Using a Non-Equilibrium Equation of Exchange

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamberlain, Robert G.

2013-01-01

Inflation is a change in the prices of goods that takes place without changes in the actual values of those goods. The Equation of Exchange, formulated clearly in a seminal paper by Irving Fisher in 1911, establishes an equilibrium relationship between the price index P (also known as "inflation"), the economy's aggregate output Q (also known as "the real gross domestic product"), the amount of money available for spending M (also known as "the money supply"), and the rate at which money is reused V (also known as "the velocity of circulation of money"). This paper offers first a qualitative discussion of what can cause these factors to change and how those causes might be controlled, then develops a quantitative model of inflation based on a non-equilibrium version of the Equation of Exchange. Causal relationships are different from equations in that the effects of changes in the causal variables take time to play out-often significant amounts of time. In the model described here, wages track prices, but only after a distributed lag. Prices change whenever the money supply, aggregate output, or the velocity of circulation of money change, but only after a distributed lag. Similarly, the money supply depends on the supplies of domestic and foreign money, which depend on the monetary base and a variety of foreign transactions, respectively. The spreading of delays mitigates the shocks of sudden changes to important inputs, but the most important aspect of this model is that delays, which often have dramatic consequences in dynamic systems, are explicitly incorporated.macroeconomics, inflation, equation of exchange, non-equilibrium, Athena Project

Full employment and competition in the Aspen economic model: implications for modeling acts of terrorism.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sprigg, James A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew

2004-11-01

Acts of terrorism could have a range of broad impacts on an economy, including changes in consumer (or demand) confidence and the ability of productive sectors to respond to changes. As a first step toward a model of terrorism-based impacts, we develop here a model of production and employment that characterizes dynamics in ways useful toward understanding how terrorism-based shocks could propagate through the economy; subsequent models will introduce the role of savings and investment into the economy. We use Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool developed at Sandia, to demonstrate for validation purposes that a single-firm economy converges tomore » the known monopoly equilibrium price, output, and employment levels, while multiple-firm economies converge toward the competitive equilibria typified by lower prices and higher output and employment. However, we find that competition also leads to churn by consumers seeking lower prices, making it difficult for firms to optimize with respect to wages, prices, and employment levels. Thus, competitive firms generate market ''noise'' in the steady state as they search for prices and employment levels that will maximize profits. In the context of this model, not only could terrorism depress overall consumer confidence and economic activity but terrorist acts could also cause normal short-run dynamics to be misinterpreted by consumers as a faltering economy.« less

Economic epidemiology of avian influenza on smallholder poultry farms☆

PubMed Central

Boni, Maciej F.; Galvani, Alison P.; Wickelgren, Abraham L.; Malani, Anup

2013-01-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is often controlled through culling of poultry. Compensating farmers for culled chickens or ducks facilitates effective culling and control of HPAI. However, ensuing price shifts can create incentives that alter the disease dynamics of HPAI. Farmers control certain aspects of the dynamics by setting a farm size, implementing infection control measures, and determining the age at which poultry are sent to market. Their decisions can be influenced by the market price of poultry which can, in turn, be set by policy makers during an HPAI outbreak. Here, we integrate these economic considerations into an epidemiological model in which epidemiological parameters are determined by an outside agent (the farmer) to maximize profit from poultry sales. Our model exhibits a diversity of behaviors which are sensitive to (i) the ability to identify infected poultry, (ii) the average price of infected poultry, (iii) the basic reproductive number of avian influenza, (iv) the effect of culling on the market price of poultry, (v) the effect of market price on farm size, and (vi) the effect of poultry density on disease transmission. We find that under certain market and epidemiological conditions, culling can increase farm size and the total number of HPAI infections. Our model helps to inform the optimization of public health outcomes that best weigh the balance between public health risk and beneficial economic outcomes for farmers. PMID:24161559

Are Price Limits Effective? An Examination of an Artificial Stock Market.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaotao; Ping, Jing; Zhu, Tao; Li, Yuelei; Xiong, Xiong

2016-01-01

We investigated the inter-day effects of price limits policies that are employed in agent-based simulations. To isolate the impact of price limits from the impact of other factors, we built an artificial stock market with higher frequency price limits hitting. The trading mechanisms in this market are the same as the trading mechanisms in China's stock market. Then, we designed a series of simulations with and without price limits policy. The results of these simulations demonstrate that both upper and lower price limits can cause a volatility spillover effect and a trading interference effect. The process of price discovery will be delayed if upper price limits are imposed on a stock market; however, this phenomenon does not occur when lower price limits are imposed.

Are Price Limits Effective? An Examination of an Artificial Stock Market

PubMed Central

Zhu, Tao; Li, Yuelei; Xiong, Xiong

2016-01-01

We investigated the inter-day effects of price limits policies that are employed in agent-based simulations. To isolate the impact of price limits from the impact of other factors, we built an artificial stock market with higher frequency price limits hitting. The trading mechanisms in this market are the same as the trading mechanisms in China’s stock market. Then, we designed a series of simulations with and without price limits policy. The results of these simulations demonstrate that both upper and lower price limits can cause a volatility spillover effect and a trading interference effect. The process of price discovery will be delayed if upper price limits are imposed on a stock market; however, this phenomenon does not occur when lower price limits are imposed. PMID:27513330

Price sensitive demand with random sales price - a newsboy problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sankar Sana, Shib

2012-03-01

Up to now, many newsboy problems have been considered in the stochastic inventory literature. Some assume that stochastic demand is independent of selling price (p) and others consider the demand as a function of stochastic shock factor and deterministic sales price. This article introduces a price-dependent demand with stochastic selling price into the classical Newsboy problem. The proposed model analyses the expected average profit for a general distribution function of p and obtains an optimal order size. Finally, the model is discussed for various appropriate distribution functions of p and illustrated with numerical examples.

Evaluation of factors affecting prescribing behaviors, in iran pharmaceutical market by econometric methods.

PubMed

Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

2015-01-01

Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies.

Evaluation of Factors Affecting Prescribing Behaviors, in Iran Pharmaceutical Market by Econometric Methods

PubMed Central

Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

2015-01-01

Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies. PMID:25901174

End-User Tools Towards AN Efficient Electricity Consumption: the Dynamic Smart Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamel, Fouad; Kist, Alexander A.

2010-06-01

Growing uncontrolled electrical demands have caused increased supply requirements. This causes volatile electrical markets and has detrimental unsustainable environmental impacts. The market is presently characterized by regular daily peak demand conditions associated with high electricity prices. A demand-side response system can limit peak demands to an acceptable level. The proposed scheme is based on energy demand and price information which is available online. An online server is used to communicate the information of electricity suppliers to users, who are able to use the information to manage and control their own demand. A configurable, intelligent switching system is used to control local loads during peak events and mange the loads at other times as necessary. The aim is to shift end user loads towards periods where energy demand and therefore also prices are at the lowest. As a result, this will flatten the load profile and avoiding load peeks which are costly for suppliers. The scheme is an endeavour towards achieving a dynamic smart grid demand-side-response environment using information-based communication and computer-controlled switching. Diffusing the scheme shall lead to improved electrical supply services and controlled energy consumption and prices.

What drives petroleum product prices

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

This new section discusses the various factors that influence the prices of gasoline and distillate fuel oil—the two most-consumed petroleum products in the United States. Charts detailing prices, consumption, production, inventories, and trade for both petroleum products will be updated each month in the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Predicting U.S. food demand in the 20th century: a new look at system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moorthy, Mukund; Cellier, Francois E.; LaFrance, Jeffrey T.

1998-08-01

The paper describes a new methodology for predicting the behavior of macroeconomic variables. The approach is based on System Dynamics and Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning. A four- layer pseudo-hierarchical model is proposed. The bottom layer makes predications about population dynamics, age distributions among the populace, as well as demographics. The second layer makes predications about the general state of the economy, including such variables as inflation and unemployment. The third layer makes predictions about the demand for certain goods or services, such as milk products, used cars, mobile telephones, or internet services. The fourth and top layer makes predictions about the supply of such goods and services, both in terms of their prices. Each layer can be influenced by control variables the values of which are only determined at higher levels. In this sense, the model is not strictly hierarchical. For example, the demand for goods at level three depends on the prices of these goods, which are only determined at level four. Yet, the prices are themselves influenced by the expected demand. The methodology is exemplified by means of a macroeconomic model that makes predictions about US food demand during the 20th century.

Pricing and inventory policies for Hi-tech products under replacement warranty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsao, Yu-Chung; Teng, Wei-Guang; Chen, Ruey-Shii; Chou, Wang-Ying

2014-06-01

Companies, especially in the Hi-tech (high-technology) industry (such as computer, communication and consumer electronic products), often provide a replacement warranty period for purchased items. In reality, simultaneously determining the price and inventory decisions under warranty policy is an important issue. The objective of this paper is to develop a joint pricing and inventory model for Hi-tech products under replacement warranty policy. In the first model, we consider a Hi-tech product feature in which the selling price is declining in a trend. We determine the optimal inventory level for each period and retail price for the first period while maximising the total profit. In the second model, we further determine the optimal retail price and inventory level for each period in the dynamic demand market. This study develops solution approaches to solve the problems described above. Numerical analysis discusses the influence of system parameters on the company's decisions and behaviours. The results of this study could serve as a reference for business managers or administrators.

OFT, VBP: QED?

PubMed

Claxton, Karl

2007-06-01

The report by the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) on the UK pharmaceutical price regulation scheme (PPRS) recommends the reform of the current scheme, which is a combination of profit and price controls, to one where price is based on the health benefits offered by a pharmaceutical. On closer examination some of the more commonly expressed concerns about these proposals do not seem to be well founded. In principle, the OFT's recommendations may contribute to allocative and dynamic efficiency in the NHS. However, there are some dangers and the details of how it will be implemented are crucial. For example, value-based pricing with an inappropriate threshold for cost-effectiveness, or an inappropriate pricing structure, could lead to technologies being adopted at prices where their benefits, in terms of health outcome, do not offset the health displaced elsewhere in the NHS, a situation in which the NHS is damaged rather than improved by innovation. A failure to account for uncertainty and the value of evidence in negotiating prices and coverage could also undermine the evidence base for future NHS practice. Whatever view is taken, the OFT report will inevitably shape the scope of future policy debates about value, guidance, price and innovation.

The Insulation Board Industry - An Economic Analysis

Treesearch

Albert T. Schuler

1978-01-01

An econometric model of the domestic insulation board industry was developed to identify and quantify the major factors affecting quantity consumed and price. The factors identified were housing starts, residential improvement activity, disposable personal income, productivity, pulpwood and residue prices, and power costs. Disposable personal income was the most...

Landuse Carbon Implications of a Drawdown of Ethanol Production and an Increase in Well-Managed Pastures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellwinckel, C. M.; Phillips, J.

2011-12-01

Over the past 10 years, commodity grain prices have doubled, and world commodity prices have reached their highest levels in over 30 years. The rise in prices culminated in the food price spikes of 2008 and 2011, where food riots erupted in 40 countries. Although studies have pointed to a number of factors leading to the increased food prices, the ethanol industry, whether deservingly or not, is seen as the major factor behind the price spikes. Several recent studies have contributed to the poor public opinion of ethanol by concluding that ethanol is neither a net energy source nor a net reducer of carbon emissions. The impact of these research reports combined with recent spikes in commodity prices has led to fierce political efforts to reduce or eliminate subsidies for ethanol. Opponents of ethanol subsidization won a significant battle with Congress recently voting to eliminate federal blender's tax credits and ethanol import tariffs. If another sharp spike in commodity prices occurs in the near future, some have speculated that ethanol production mandates could be scaled back or eliminated. In the span of less than three years the expected role of ethanol in the agricultural sector has gone from one of rapid growth and longevity, to one of which the societal benefits are being strongly questioned. In light of the rapidly changing expectations regarding the future of ethanol, we believe it is an appropriate time to evaluate the landuse and carbon implications of a scaling down of ethanol production and investigating permanent managed pasture as an alternative land use that could provide carbon benefits. Various USDA programs to promote conservation of, or conversion to, permanent pasture or grassland exist primarily based on the value of decreasing the potential for soil erosion as well as improving water quality. Although grazing systems have long been associated with land degradation in the arid and semi-arid west, new management approaches utilizing some form of rotational grazing are believed to reverse degradation and potentially lead to soil and pasture improvement if well managed, with implications for soil carbon storage. As the debate over societal subsidization of ethanol continues, the scientific communities should prepare for a potential drawdown of ethanol, and be aware of the potential land use impacts. An integrated biogeophysical socioeconomic model is used to evaluate three levels of potential reductions in ethanol production along with the possibility of conversion of non-profitable cropland to pasture management. The integrated model (POLYSYS) is driven by data on economics, terrestrial carbon dynamics, remotely-sensed land cover, and energy consumption. Preliminary results indicate that up to 10 million hectares of cropland could convert to pastureland, reducing agricultural land use emissions by nearly 10 teragrams carbon equivalent (TgCeq), a 36% decline in agricultural land use carbon equivalent emissions.

Outpatient Provider Concentration and Commercial Colonoscopy Prices

PubMed Central

Pozen, Alexis

2015-01-01

The objective was to evaluate the magnitude of various contributors to outpatient commercial colonoscopy prices, including market- and provider-level factors, especially market share. We used adjudicated fee-for-service facility claims from a large commercial insurer for colonoscopies occurring in hospital outpatient department or ambulatory surgery center from October 2005 to December 2012. Claims were matched to provider- and market-level data. Linear fixed effects regressions of negotiated colonoscopy price were run on provider, system, and market characteristics. Markets were defined as counties. There were 178 433 claims from 169 providers (104 systems). The mean system market share was 76% (SD = 0.34) and the mean real (deflated) price was US$1363 (SD = 374), ranging from US$169 to US$2748. For every percentage point increase in a system or individual facility’s bed share, relative price increased by 2 to 4 percentage points; this result was stable across a number of specifications. Market population and price were also consistently positively related, though this relation was small in magnitude. No other factor explained price as strongly as market share. Price variation for colonoscopy was driven primarily by market share, of particular concern as the number of mergers increases in wake of the recession and the Affordable Care Act. Whether variation is justified by better quality care requires further research to determine whether quality is subsumed in prices. PMID:25870183

Dynamic modeling of hybrid renewable energy systems for off-grid applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasemeyer, Mark David

The volatile prices of fossil fuels and their contribution to global warming have caused many people to turn to renewable energy systems. Many developing communities are forced to use these systems as they are too far from electrical distribution. As a result, numerous software models have been developed to simulate hybrid renewable energy systems. However almost, if not all, implementations are static in design. A static design limits the ability of the model to account for changes over time. Dynamic modeling can be used to fill the gaps where other modeling techniques fall short. This modeling practice allows the user to account for the effects of technological and economic factors over time. These factors can include changes in energy demand, energy production, and income level. Dynamic modeling can be particularly useful for developing communities who are off-grid and developing at rapid rates. In this study, a dynamic model was used to evaluate a real world system. A non-governmental organization interested in improving their current infrastructure was selected. Five different scenarios were analyzed and compared in order to discover which factors the model is most sensitive to. In four of the scenarios, a new energy system was purchased in order to account for the opening of a restaurant that would be used as a source of local income generation. These scenarios were then compared to a base case in which a new system was not purchased, and the restaurant was not opened. Finally, the results were used to determine which variables had the greatest impact on the various outputs of the simulation.

The effects of the vegetable prices insurance on the fluctuation of price: Based on Shanghai evidences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, Chunhong; Li, Huishang; Hao, Shuai; Zhang, Xuebiao; Yang, Wei

2017-10-01

Taking Shanghai as an example, the influence of the vegetable price insurance on the fluctuation of prices was analyzed in the article. It was found that the sequence of seasonal fluctuations characteristics of leafy vegetable prices was changed by the vegetable cost-price insurance, the period of price fluctuation was elongated from 12-to-18 months to 37 months, and the influence of random factors on the price fluctuations was reduced in some degree. There was still great space for innovation of the vegetable prices insurance system in Shanghai. Some countermeasures would be suggested to develop the insurance system to better to play the role of insurance and promote the market running more smoothly in Shanghai such as prolonging the insurance cycle, improving the price information monitoring mechanism and innovating income insurance products and so on.

Enterprise systems in financial sector - an application in precious metal trading forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiaozhu; Fang, Yiwei

2013-11-01

The use of enterprise systems has become increasingly popular in the financial service industry. This paper discusses the applications of enterprise systems in the financial sectors and presents an application in gold price forecasting. We carefully examine the impacts of a few most widely assumed factors that have significant impact on the long-term gold price using statistical regression techniques. The analysis on our proposed linear regression mode indicates that the United States ultra scale of M2 money supply has been the most important catalyst for the rising price of gold, and the CRB index upward trend has also been the weighty factor for pushing up the gold price. In addition, the gold price has a low negative correlation with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and low positive correlations with the US dollar index and the gold ETFs holdings.

Effects of scarcity, aesthetics and ecology on wildlife auction prices of large African mammals.

PubMed

Dalerum, Fredrik; Miranda, María; Muñiz, Cristina; Rodríguez, Plácido

2018-02-01

For successful integration of biological conservation into economic markets, economic processes need to capture ecological values. South African wildlife ranching is a tourist-based activity that generates unique information on the economic value of wildlife species. We used public data from South African wildlife auctions to evaluate if annual prices 1991-2012 related to species characteristics associated with scarcity, aesthetics and ecology of South African carnivores and ungulates. While none of the species characteristics influenced carnivore prices, ungulate prices were related to characteristics associated with novelty and aesthetics, which relative importance had increased over time. We raise both ecological and economic concerns for this apparent focus. Our results also suggest a potential importance of non-species-related factors, such as market and buyer characteristics. We encourage further evaluation of the relative influences of species characteristics versus factors that are intrinsically linked to economic processes on price variations in South African wildlife.

48 CFR 17.207 - Exercise of options.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... period specified in the contract. (b) When the contract provides for economic price adjustment and the... consideration such factors as market stability and comparison of the time since award with the usual duration of... that is subject to an economic price adjustment provision; or (5) A specific price that is subject to...

42 CFR § 510.300 - Determination of episode target prices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2016-10-01

... SERVICES (CONTINUED) HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND MODEL PROGRAMS COMPREHENSIVE CARE FOR JOINT REPLACEMENT MODEL Pricing and Payment § 510.300 Determination of episode target prices. (a) General. CMS establishes... expenditures from the CJR model as described in this section. (1) Discount factor for reconciliation payments...

Institutional Variation in Enrollment of Low-Income Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monks, James

2018-01-01

Socioeconomic diversity in tertiary education has come under heightened scrutiny in the past few years. This paper estimates the relationship between prices (both sticker price and net price), financial aid policies, and selectivity on the variation of low-income students across postsecondary institutions. All three factors are significant in…

48 CFR 1352.215-74 - Best value evaluation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... integrated assessment of price/cost and non-price evaluation factors, to provide the best value to the... ensure that their initial proposal constitutes their best offer in terms of both price and the technical... at which an efficient competition can be conducted, the Contracting Officer may limit the number of...

A stochastic model for stationary dynamics of prices in real estate markets. A case of random intensity for Poisson moments of prices changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusakov, Oleg; Laskin, Michael

2017-06-01

We consider a stochastic model of changes of prices in real estate markets. We suppose that in a book of prices the changes happen in points of jumps of a Poisson process with a random intensity, i.e. moments of changes sequently follow to a random process of the Cox process type. We calculate cumulative mathematical expectations and variances for the random intensity of this point process. In the case that the process of random intensity is a martingale the cumulative variance has a linear grows. We statistically process a number of observations of real estate prices and accept hypotheses of a linear grows for estimations as well for cumulative average, as for cumulative variance both for input and output prises that are writing in the book of prises.

A Demand-Driven Approach for a Multi-Agent System in Supply Chain Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalchuk, Yevgeniya; Fasli, Maria

This paper presents the architecture of a multi-agent decision support system for Supply Chain Management (SCM) which has been designed to compete in the TAC SCM game. The behaviour of the system is demand-driven and the agents plan, predict, and react dynamically to changes in the market. The main strength of the system lies in the ability of the Demand agent to predict customer winning bid prices - the highest prices the agent can offer customers and still obtain their orders. This paper investigates the effect of the ability to predict customer order prices on the overall performance of the system. Four strategies are proposed and compared for predicting such prices. The experimental results reveal which strategies are better and show that there is a correlation between the accuracy of the models' predictions and the overall system performance: the more accurate the prediction of customer order prices, the higher the profit.

User Access Management Based on Network Pricing for Social Network Applications

PubMed Central

Ma, Xingmin; Gu, Qing

2018-01-01

Social applications play a very important role in people’s lives, as users communicate with each other through social networks on a daily basis. This presents a challenge: How does one receive high-quality service from social networks at a low cost? Users can access different kinds of wireless networks from various locations. This paper proposes a user access management strategy based on network pricing such that networks can increase its income and improve service quality. Firstly, network price is treated as an optimizing access parameter, and an unascertained membership algorithm is used to make pricing decisions. Secondly, network price is adjusted dynamically in real time according to network load. Finally, selecting a network is managed and controlled in terms of the market economy. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme can effectively balance network load, reduce network congestion, improve the user's quality of service (QoS) requirements, and increase the network’s income. PMID:29495252

Effect of market factors on the short-time pricing of stock-exchange metals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogdanov, S. V.; Shevelev, I. M.; Chernyi, S. A.

2016-12-01

The open trade on the world market is estimated using information of one-day exchange prices of nonferrous and precious metals, oil, reduced crude, and gasoline and the main world stock indices in the time period from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2015. It is found that the short-term changes in the prices of nonferrous metals are determined by the prices on the metal market. The changes in the prices of energy carriers and the stock trade on the stock market weakly influence the pricing of nonferrous and precious metals. The prices of metals depend on the situation during trade on commodity exchanges, and the stock market indirectly influences the exchange prices of metals through changes in the share prices of the companies that produce copper, aluminum, and zinc.

Economic and public health impact of 2007-2010 tobacco tax increases in Ukraine.

PubMed

Ross, Hana; Stoklosa, Michal; Krasovsky, Konstantin

2012-07-01

To evaluate the impact of the dynamic 2007-2010 tobacco tax policy in Ukraine on cigarette prices, cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenue and the tobacco industry's price strategy. Using data on cigarette sales, cigarette prices, income and tobacco control policies, price elasticities of cigarette demand in Ukraine were estimated using two methods. Annual data were used to generate point price elasticity estimates, while monthly data were used in a two-step Engle-Granger procedure. The point price elasticity estimate is data sensitive and ranges from -0.11 to -0.62, centring around -0.32. The regression model estimates a long-run price elasticity of -0.28. Cigarette consumption fell by 13% in 2009 and 15% in 2010 while the tax revenue increased by US$700 million and by US$500 million in 2009 and 2010, respectively, compared to the previous year. Tax increases have changed the tobacco industry's price strategy from one of shielding consumers from the impact of smaller tax hikes in 2007-2008, to one of increasing industry net-of-tax prices, after recent, larger tax increases. The higher real tobacco excise taxes of 2009 and 2010 have significantly reduced tobacco consumption in Ukraine, resulting in encouraging public health and fiscal gains. It will be important for cigarette prices/taxes to keep pace with inflation and income growth for this impact to be sustained.

Implementing differential pricing for essential medicines via country-specific bilateral negotiated discounts.

PubMed

Tetteh, Ebenezer Kwabena

2009-01-01

It is widely acknowledged that limited access to essential medicines undermines efforts at improving the health and economic well-being of low-income populations. This has spurred on a number of solutions, including differential pricing based on the economics of price discrimination. A desirable feature of differential pricing is its potential ability to reconcile static and dynamic efficiency concerns. There are, however, various shades of differential pricing and this paper aims to evaluate their consistency with economic theory. Starting with the report of the workshop on 'Differential Pricing and Financing of Essential Drugs' held by secretariats of the World Trade Organization and WHO in Hosbjor, Norway, in 2001, this paper takes issue with how differential pricing has been defined as a tool for improving access to essential drug benefits. The paper notes that inadequate attention has been given to policies and institutional arrangements for creating, expressing and maintaining 'truly' price-elastic demands in low-income nations and for segmenting markets. In addition, considerations of equity and solidarity have distracted policy advocates from balancing conflicting, yet well intended, views and general rules. The paper argues why differential pricing should be implemented via country-specific bilateral negotiated discounts. It maintains that it is feasible to muster an environment conducive to profitable differential pricing whilst satisfying general rules and concerns about self-reliance, transparency, accountability, equity and solidarity.

Making the purchase decision: factors other than price.

PubMed

Lyons, D M

1992-05-01

Taking price out of the limelight and concentrating on customer relations, mutual respect, and build-in/buy-in; involving the user; developing communication and evaluation processes; and being process oriented to attain the results needed require commitment on the part of administration and materiel management. There must be a commitment of time to develop the process, commitment of resources to work through the process, and a commitment of support to enhance the process. With those three parameters in place, price will no longer be the only factor in the purchasing decision.

Benefit assessment in Germany: implications for price discounts.

PubMed

Theidel, Ulrike; von der Schulenburg, J-Matthias Graf

2016-12-01

The AMNOG regulation, introduced in 2011 in Germany, changed the game for new drugs. Now, the industry is required to submit a dossier to the GBA (the central decision body in the German sickness fund system) to show additional benefit. After granting the magnitude of the additional benefit by the GBA, the manufacturer is entitled to negotiate the reimbursement price with the GKV-SV (National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds). The reimbursement price is defined as a discount on the drug price at launch. As the price or discount negotiations between the manufacturers and the GKV-SV takes place behind closed doors, the factors influencing the results of the negotiation are not known. The aim of this evaluation is to identify factors influencing the results of the AMNOG price negotiation process. The analysis was based on a dataset containing detailed information on all assessments until the end of 2015. A descriptive analysis was followed by an econometric analysis of various potential factors (benefit rating, size of target population, deviating from appropriate comparative therapy and incorporation of HRQoL-data). Until December 2015, manufacturers and the GKV-SV finalized 96 negotiations in 193 therapeutic areas, based on assessment conducted by the GBA. The GBA has granted an additional benefit to 100/193 drug innovations. Negotiated discount was significantly higher for those drugs without additional benefit (p = 0.030) and non-orphan drugs (p = 0.015). Smaller population size, no deviation from recommended appropriate comparative therapy and the incorporation of HRQoL-data were associated with a lower discount on the price at launch. However, neither a uni- nor the multivariate linear regression showed enough power to predict the final discount. Although the AMNOG regulation implemented binding and strict rules for the benefit assessment itself, the outcome of the discount negotiations are still unpredictable. Obviously, negotiation tactics, the current political situation and soft factors seem to play a more influential role for the outcome of the negotiations than the five hard and known factors analyzed in this study. Further research is needed to evaluate additional factors.

Propensity to spending of an average consumer over a brief period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Luca, Roberto; Di Mauro, Marco; Falzarano, Angelo; Naddeo, Adele

2016-08-01

Understanding consumption dynamics and its impact on the whole economy and welfare within the present economic crisis is not an easy task. Indeed the level of consumer demand for different goods varies with the prices, consumer incomes and demographic factors. Furthermore crisis may trigger different behaviors which result in distortions and amplification effects. In the present work we propose a simple model to quantitatively describe the time evolution over a brief period of the amount of money an average consumer decides to spend, depending on his/her available budget. A simple hydrodynamical analog of the model is discussed. Finally, perspectives of this work are briefly outlined.

Nonlinear analysis and dynamic structure in the energy market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghababa, Hajar

This research assesses the dynamic structure of the energy sector of the aggregate economy in the context of nonlinear mechanisms. Earlier studies have focused mainly on the price of the energy products when detecting nonlinearities in time series data of the energy market, and there is little mention of the production side of the market. Moreover, there is a lack of exploration about the implication of high dimensionality and time aggregation when analyzing the market's fundamentals. This research will address these gaps by including the quantity side of the market in addition to the price and by systematically incorporating various frequencies for sample sizes in three essays. The goal of this research is to provide an inclusive and exhaustive examination of the dynamics in the energy markets. The first essay begins with the application of statistical techniques, and it incorporates the most well-known univariate tests for nonlinearity with distinct power functions over alternatives and tests different null hypotheses. It utilizes the daily spot price observations on five major products in the energy market. The results suggest that the time series daily spot prices of the energy products are highly nonlinear in their nature. They demonstrate apparent evidence of general nonlinear serial dependence in each individual series, as well as nonlinearity in the first, second, and third moments of the series. The second essay examines the underlying mechanism of crude oil production and identifies the nonlinear structure of the production market by utilizing various monthly time series observations of crude oil production: the U.S. field, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), non-OPEC, and the world production of crude oil. The finding implies that the time series data of the U.S. field, OPEC, and the world production of crude oil exhibit deep nonlinearity in their structure and are generated by nonlinear mechanisms. However, the dynamics of the non-OPEC production time series data does not reveal signs of nonlinearity. The third essay explores nonlinear structure in the case of high dimensionality of the observations, different frequencies of sample sizes, and division of the samples into sub-samples. It systematically examines the robustness of the inference methods at various levels of time aggregation by employing daily spot prices on crude oil for 26 years as well as monthly spot price index on crude oil for 41 years. The daily and monthly samples are divided into sub-samples as well. All the tests detect strong evidence of nonlinear structure in the daily spot price of crude oil; whereas in monthly observations the evidence of nonlinear dependence is less dramatic, indicating that the nonlinear serial dependence will not be as intense when the time aggregation increase in time series observations.

The commodity terms of trade, unit roots, and nonlinear alternatives: a smooth transition approach

Treesearch

Barry K. Goodwin; Matthew T. Holt; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2008-01-01

Market price dynamics for North American oriented strand board markets are examined.  Specifically, the role of transactions costs are examined vis-a-vis the law of one price. Weekly data for the January 3rd, 1995 through April 14th, 2006 period are used in the analysis. Nonlinearities induced by unobservable transactions costs are modelled by estimating smooth...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Jialin Frank; Martínez, Maria Gabriela; Anderson, C Lindsay

This work presents a preliminary analysis considering impact of a grid-connected microgrid on network transmission of the power system. The locational marginal prices of the power system are used to strategically place the microgrid to avoid congestion problems. In addition, a Monte Carlo simulation approach is implemented to confirm that network congestion can be attenuated if appropriate price-based signals are set to define the import and export dynamic between the two systems.

Sociological Factors Affecting Agricultural Price Risk Management in Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Elizabeth; Quaddus, Mohammed; Islam, Nazrul; Stanton, John

2009-01-01

The highly volatile auction system in Australia accounts for 85 percent of ex-farm wool sales, with the remainder sold by forward contract, futures, and other hedging methods. In this article, against the background of an extensive literature on price risk strategies, we investigate the behavioral factors associated with producers' adoption of…

Implications of external price referencing of pharmaceuticals in Middle East countries.

PubMed

Kaló, Zoltán; Alabbadi, Ibrahim; Al Ahdab, Ola Ghaleb; Alowayesh, Maryam; Elmahdawy, Mahmoud; Al-Saggabi, Abdulaziz H; Tanzi, Vito Luigi; Al-Badriyeh, Daoud; Alsultan, Hamad S; Ali, Faleh Mohamed Hussain; Elsisi, Gihan H; Akhras, Kasem S; Vokó, Zoltán; Kanavos, Panos

2015-01-01

External price referencing (EPR) is applied frequently to control pharmaceutical prices. Our objective was to analyse how EPR is used in Middle Eastern (ME) countries and to compare the price corridor for original pharmaceuticals to non-pharmaceutical services not subjected to EPR. We conducted a survey on EPR regulations and collected prices of 16 patented pharmaceuticals and 14 non-pharmaceutical services in seven Middle Eastern (ME) countries. Maximum and minimum prices of each pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical technology were compared to mean prices in the countries studied by using market exchange rates. Influencing factors of pharmaceutical prices were assessed by multivariate linear regression analysis. The average price corridor is narrower for pharmaceuticals (-39.8%; +35.9%) than for outpatient and hospital services (-81.7%; +96.3%). Our analysis revealed the importance of population size and EPR implementation on drug price levels; however, EPR results in higher pharmaceutical prices in lower-income countries compared to non-pharmaceutical services.

Specialty service contracting.

PubMed

Malcolm, C L; Fukui, M

1993-01-01

Package pricing of specific services and procedures can be an effective cost-containment and marketing tool for payers and providers. Payers can secure fixed prices at discounted rates, and hospitals and physicians can retain and gain market share in an increasingly competitive health care market. Successful implementation of a package pricing strategy, however, requires a careful assessment of both market and operational factors. This chapter outlines how to identify opportunities for package pricing and how to establish rates and procedures.

[Design and implementation of supply security monitoring and analysis system for Chinese patent medicines supply in national essential medicines].

PubMed

Wang, Hui; Zhang, Xiao-Bo; Huang, Lu-Qi; Guo, Lan-Ping; Wang, Ling; Zhao, Yu-Ping; Yang, Guang

2017-11-01

The supply of Chinese patent medicine is influenced by the price of raw materials (Chinese herbal medicines) and the stock of resources. On the one hand, raw material prices show cyclical volatility or even irreversible soaring, making the price of Chinese patent medicine is not stable or even the highest cost of hanging upside down. On the other hand, due to lack of resources or disable some of the proprietary Chinese medicine was forced to stop production. Based on the micro-service architecture and Redis cluster deployment Based on the micro-service architecture and Redis cluster deployment, the supply security monitoring and analysis system for Chinese patent medicines in national essential medicines has realized the dynamic monitoring and intelligence warning of herbs and Chinese patent medicine by connecting and integrating the database of Chinese medicine resources, the dynamic monitoring system of traditional Chinese medicine resources and the basic medicine database of Chinese patent medicine. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Stochastic volatility of the futures prices of emission allowances: A Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jungmu; Park, Yuen Jung; Ryu, Doojin

2017-01-01

Understanding the stochastic nature of the spot volatility of emission allowances is crucial for risk management in emissions markets. In this study, by adopting a stochastic volatility model with or without jumps to represent the dynamics of European Union Allowances (EUA) futures prices, we estimate the daily volatilities and model parameters by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for stochastic volatility (SV), stochastic volatility with return jumps (SVJ) and stochastic volatility with correlated jumps (SVCJ) models. Our empirical results reveal three important features of emissions markets. First, the data presented herein suggest that EUA futures prices exhibit significant stochastic volatility. Second, the leverage effect is noticeable regardless of whether or not jumps are included. Third, the inclusion of jumps has a significant impact on the estimation of the volatility dynamics. Finally, the market becomes very volatile and large jumps occur at the beginning of a new phase. These findings are important for policy makers and regulators.

Liquidity crises on different time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corradi, Francesco; Zaccaria, Andrea; Pietronero, Luciano

2015-12-01

We present an empirical analysis of the microstructure of financial markets and, in particular, of the static and dynamic properties of liquidity. We find that on relatively large time scales (15 min) large price fluctuations are connected to the failure of the subtle mechanism of compensation between the flows of market and limit orders: in other words, the missed revelation of the latent order book breaks the dynamical equilibrium between the flows, triggering the large price jumps. On smaller time scales (30 s), instead, the static depletion of the limit order book is an indicator of an intrinsic fragility of the system, which is related to a strongly nonlinear enhancement of the response. In order to quantify this phenomenon we introduce a measure of the liquidity imbalance present in the book and we show that it is correlated to both the sign and the magnitude of the next price movement. These findings provide a quantitative definition of the effective liquidity, which proves to be strongly dependent on the considered time scales.

Liquidity crises on different time scales.

PubMed

Corradi, Francesco; Zaccaria, Andrea; Pietronero, Luciano

2015-12-01

We present an empirical analysis of the microstructure of financial markets and, in particular, of the static and dynamic properties of liquidity. We find that on relatively large time scales (15 min) large price fluctuations are connected to the failure of the subtle mechanism of compensation between the flows of market and limit orders: in other words, the missed revelation of the latent order book breaks the dynamical equilibrium between the flows, triggering the large price jumps. On smaller time scales (30 s), instead, the static depletion of the limit order book is an indicator of an intrinsic fragility of the system, which is related to a strongly nonlinear enhancement of the response. In order to quantify this phenomenon we introduce a measure of the liquidity imbalance present in the book and we show that it is correlated to both the sign and the magnitude of the next price movement. These findings provide a quantitative definition of the effective liquidity, which proves to be strongly dependent on the considered time scales.

Multiscale synchrony behaviors of paired financial time series by 3D multi-continuum percolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Wang, J.; Wang, B. T.

2018-02-01

Multiscale synchrony behaviors and nonlinear dynamics of paired financial time series are investigated, in an attempt to study the cross correlation relationships between two stock markets. A random stock price model is developed by a new system called three-dimensional (3D) multi-continuum percolation system, which is utilized to imitate the formation mechanism of price dynamics and explain the nonlinear behaviors found in financial time series. We assume that the price fluctuations are caused by the spread of investment information. The cluster of 3D multi-continuum percolation represents the cluster of investors who share the same investment attitude. In this paper, we focus on the paired return series, the paired volatility series, and the paired intrinsic mode functions which are decomposed by empirical mode decomposition. A new cross recurrence quantification analysis is put forward, combining with multiscale cross-sample entropy, to investigate the multiscale synchrony of these paired series from the proposed model. The corresponding research is also carried out for two China stock markets as comparison.

Three essays on access pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sydee, Ahmed Nasim

In the first essay, a theoretical model is developed to determine the time path of optimal access price in the telecommunications industry. Determining the optimal access price is an important issue in the economics of telecommunications. Setting a high access price discourages potential entrants; a low access price, on the other hand, amounts to confiscation of private property because the infrastructure already built by the incumbent is sunk. Furthermore, a low access price does not give the incumbent incentives to maintain the current network and to invest in new infrastructures. Much of the existing literature on access pricing suffers either from the limitations of a static framework or from the assumption that all costs are avoidable. The telecommunications industry is subject to high stranded costs and, therefore, to address this issue a dynamic model is imperative. This essay presents a dynamic model of one-way access pricing in which the compensation involved in deregulatory taking is formalized and then analyzed. The short run adjustment after deregulatory taking has occurred is carried out and discussed. The long run equilibrium is also analyzed. A time path for the Ramsey price is shown as the correct dynamic price of access. In the second essay, a theoretical model is developed to determine the time path of optimal access price for an infrastructure that is characterized by congestion and lumpy investment. Much of the theoretical literature on access pricing of infrastructure prescribes that the access price be set at the marginal cost of the infrastructure. In proposing this rule of access pricing, the conventional analysis assumes that infrastructure investments are infinitely divisible so that it makes sense to talk about the marginal cost of investment. Often it is the case that investments in infrastructure are lumpy and can only be made in large chunks, and this renders the marginal cost concept meaningless. In this essay, we formalize a model of access pricing with congestion and in which investments in infrastructure are lumpy. To fix ideas, the model is formulated in the context of airport infrastructure investments, which captures both the element of congestion and the lumpiness involved in infrastructure investments. The optimal investment program suggests how many units of capacity should be installed and at which times. Because time is continuous in the model, the discounted cost -- despite the lumpiness of capacity additions -- can be made to vary continuously by varying the time a capacity addition is made. The main results that emerge from the analysis can be described as follows: First, the global demand for air travel rises with time and experiences an upward jump whenever a capacity addition is made. Second, the access price is constant and stays at the basic level when the system is not congested. When the system is congested, a congestion surcharge is imposed on top of the basic level, and the congestion surcharge rises with the level of congestion until the next capacity addition is made at which time the access price takes a downward jump. Third, the individual demand for air travel is constant before congestion sets in and after the last capacity addition takes place. During a time interval in which congestion rises, the individual demand for travel is below the level that prevails when there is no congestion and declines as congestion worsens. The third essay contains a model of access pricing for natural gas transmission pipelines, both when pipeline operators are regulated and when they behave strategically. The high sunk costs involved in building a pipeline network constitute a serious barrier of entry, and competitive behaviour in the transmission pipeline sector cannot be expected. Most of the economic analyses of access pricing for natural gas transmission pipelines are carried out from the regulatory perspective, and the access price paid by shippers are cost-based. The model formalized is intended to capture some essential characteristics of networks in which components interact with one another when combined into an integrated system. The model shows how the topology of the network determines the access prices in different components of the network. The general results that emerge from the analysis can be summarized as follows. First, the monopoly power of a pipeline operator is reduced by the entry of a new pipeline supply connected in parallel to the same demand node. When the pipelines are connected in series, the one upstream enjoys a first-move advantage over the one downstream, and the toll set by the upstream pipeline operator after entry by the downstream pipeline operator will rise above the original monopoly level. The equilibrium prices of natural gas at the various nodes of the network are also discussed. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Global critical materials markets: An agent-based modeling approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riddle, Matthew; Macal, Charles M.; Conzelmann, Guenter

As part of efforts to position the United States as a leader in clean energy technology production, the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued two Critical Materials Strategy reports, which assessed 16 materials on the basis of their importance to clean energy development and their supply risk ( U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2010 and DOE, 2011). To understand the implications for clean energy of disruptions in supplies of critical materials, it is important to understand supply chain dynamics from mining to final product production. As a case study of critical material supply chains, we focus on the supplymore » of two rare earth metals, neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy), for permanent magnets used in wind turbines, electric vehicles and other applications. We introduce GCMat, a dynamic agent-based model that includes interacting agents at five supply chain stages consisting of mining, metal refining, magnet production, final product production and demand. Agents throughout the supply chain make pricing, production and inventory management decisions. Deposit developers choose which deposits to develop based on market conditions and detailed data on 57 rare earth deposits. Wind turbine and electric vehicle producers choose from a set of possible production technologies that require different amounts of rare earths. We ran the model under a baseline scenario and four alternative scenarios with different demand and production technology inputs. Model results from 2010 to 2013 fit well with historical data. Projections through 2025 show a number of possible future price, demand, and supply trajectories. For each scenario, we highlight reasons for turning points under market conditions, for differences between Nd and Dy markets, and for differences between scenarios. Because GCMat can model causal dynamics and provide fine-grain representation of agents and their decisions, it provides explanations for turning points under market conditions that are not otherwise available from other modeling approaches. Our baseline projections show very different behaviors for Nd and Dy prices. Nd prices continue to drop and remain low even at the end of our simulation period as new capacity comes online and leads to a market in which production capacity outpaces demand. Dy price movements, on the other hand, change directions several times with several key turning points related to inventory behaviors of particular agents in the supply chain and asymmetric supply and demand trends. Scenario analyses show the impact of stronger demand growth for rare earths, and in particular finds that Nd price impacts are significantly delayed as compared to Dy. This is explained by the substantial excess production capacity for Nd in the early simulation years that keeps prices down. Scenarios that explore the impact of reducing the Dy content of magnets show the intricate interdependencies of these two markets as price trends for both rare earths reverse directions – reducing the Dy content of magnets reduces Dy demand, which drives down Dy prices and translates into lower magnet prices. This in turn raises the demand for magnets and therefore the demand for Nd and eventually drives up the Nd price.« less

Patient Awareness of Local Drug Price Variation and the Factors That Influence Pharmacy Choice: A Cross-sectional Survey Study

PubMed

Brodsky, Spencer D; Awosika, Olabola D; Eleryan, Misty G; Rengifo-Pardo, Monica; Kuang, Xiangyu; Amdur, Richard L; Ehrlich, Alison

2017-12-01

BACKGROUND: High out-of-pocket drug expenditures are increasingly common in dermatology. Patients may not be aware that prices vary among pharmacies and consequently may not shop for the lowest cost. OBJECTIVE: To determine what factors influence pharmacy choice and the effect of providing local prescription prices on pharmacy selection. We hypothesized that patients do not "shop around" due to lack of knowledge of price variation and would choose a pharmacy based on costs if educated on price disparity. METHODS: Between July and August 2016, we administered a cross-sectional anonymous survey to adults visiting four outpatient clinics at an academic tertiary care center in Washington, D.C. Participants answered questions before and after viewing a list of prescription drug prices from local pharmacies. RESULTS: 287 surveys were administered to a convenience sample of adults (age ≥ 18 and literate in English). Of the 287 participants, 218 fully completed the survey; 55.1% were women and 40.5% were over age 40. When considering a cost savings of $10-25, 65% would switch pharmacies if the distance were the same, and 21.3% would switch if the distance were 45-minutes further. After price education, fewer participants felt that drug price knowledge would ultimately influence pharmacy choice (P less than 0.0001). However, respondents' intended frequency of researching price online, calling a pharmacy to ask about price, and comparing price between pharmacies before filling a prescription all increased, compared to prior self-reported frequencies (P less than 0.001). Specifically, participants with $75,000-$99,999 income were more likely to compare prices than those with income below $45,000 (odds ratio [OR], 4.62; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.24-17.28). CONCLUSION: In this study, pharmacy choice was more influenced by convenience than cost prior to drug price education. However, price education ultimately impacted intent to research prescription drug prices before selecting a pharmacy. Thus, knowledge of drug pricing may be useful in creating cost savings for patients.

78 FR 56911 - Notice of Certain Operating Cost Adjustment Factors for 2014

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-16

... Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index, All Items Less Food, Energy and Shelter (Series ID.../february2013.pdf . Natural Gas: Energy Information Agency, Natural Gas, Residential Energy Price, 2011-2012.... The best current price data sources for the nine cost categories were used in calculating annual...

The Cost and Price Dilemma of Scholarly Journals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Donald W.; Tenopir, Carol

2000-01-01

Examines overall costs of the scientific scholarly journal system and finds that relative system costs have not increased since the late 1970s. Describes scholarly publishing costs; factors that have contributed to spiraling price increases and changes in journal subscription demand; and alternative pricing policies that might help in the future.…

An econometric model of the hardwood lumber market

Treesearch

William G. Luppold

1982-01-01

A recursive econometric model with causal flow originating from the demand relationship is used to analyze the effects of exogenous variables on quantity and price of hardwood lumber. Wage rates, interest rates, stumpage price, lumber exports, and price of lumber demanders' output were the major factors influencing quantities demanded and supplied and hardwood...

Fast Food Consumption and Food Prices: Evidence from Panel Data on 5th and 8th Grade Children

PubMed Central

Khan, Tamkeen; Powell, Lisa M.; Wada, Roy

2012-01-01

Fast food consumption is a dietary factor associated with higher prevalence of childhood obesity in the United States. The association between food prices and consumption of fast food among 5th and 8th graders was examined using individual-level random effects models utilizing consumption data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 (ECLS-K), price data from American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association (ACCRA), and contextual outlet density data from Dun and Bradstreet (D&B). The results found that contextual factors including the price of fast food, median household income, and fast food restaurant outlet densities were significantly associated with fast food consumption patterns among this age group. Overall, a 10% increase in the price of fast food was associated with 5.7% lower frequency of weekly fast food consumption. These results suggest that public health policy pricing instruments such as taxes may be effective in reducing consumption of energy-dense foods and possibly reducing the prevalence of overweight and obesity among US children and young adolescents. PMID:22292115

Cost-effectiveness and Pricing of Antibacterial Drugs

PubMed Central

Verhoef, Talitha I; Morris, Stephen

2015-01-01

Growing resistance to antibacterial agents has increased the need for the development of new drugs to treat bacterial infections. Given increasing pressure on limited health budgets, it is important to study the cost-effectiveness of these drugs, as well as their safety and efficacy, to find out whether or not they provide value for money and should be reimbursed. In this article, we systematically reviewed 38 cost-effectiveness analyses of new antibacterial agents. Most studies showed the new antibacterial drugs were cost-effective compared to older generation drugs. Drug pricing is a complicated process, involving different stakeholders, and has a large influence on cost-effectiveness. Value-based pricing is a method to determine the price of a drug at which it can be cost-effective. It is currently unclear what the influence of value-based pricing will be on the prices of new antibacterial agents, but an important factor will be the definition of ‘value’, which as well as the impact of the drug on patient health might also include other factors such as wider social impact and the health impact of disease. PMID:25521641

Fast food consumption and food prices: evidence from panel data on 5th and 8th grade children.

PubMed

Khan, Tamkeen; Powell, Lisa M; Wada, Roy

2012-01-01

Fast food consumption is a dietary factor associated with higher prevalence of childhood obesity in the United States. The association between food prices and consumption of fast food among 5th and 8th graders was examined using individual-level random effects models utilizing consumption data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 (ECLS-K), price data from American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association (ACCRA), and contextual outlet density data from Dun and Bradstreet (D&B). The results found that contextual factors including the price of fast food, median household income, and fast food restaurant outlet densities were significantly associated with fast food consumption patterns among this age group. Overall, a 10% increase in the price of fast food was associated with 5.7% lower frequency of weekly fast food consumption. These results suggest that public health policy pricing instruments such as taxes may be effective in reducing consumption of energy-dense foods and possibly reducing the prevalence of overweight and obesity among US children and young adolescents.

Analyzing the Stability of Price Response Functions: Measuring the Influence of Different Parameters in a Monte Carlo Comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brusch, Michael; Baier, Daniel

The usage and the estimation of price response function is very important for strategic marketing decisions. Typically price response functions with an empirical basis are used. However, such price response functions are subject to a lot of disturbing influence factors, e.g., the assumed profit maximum price and the assumed corresponding quantity of sales. In such cases, the question how stable the found price response function is was not answered sufficiently up to now. In this paper, the question will be pursued how much (and what kind of) errors in market research are pardonable for a stable price response function. For the comparisons, a factorial design with synthetically generated and disturbed data is used.

Numerical analysis for finite-range multitype stochastic contact financial market dynamic systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Ge; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen, E-mail: fangwen@bjtu.edu.cn

In an attempt to reproduce and study the dynamics of financial markets, a random agent-based financial price model is developed and investigated by the finite-range multitype contact dynamic system, in which the interaction and dispersal of different types of investment attitudes in a stock market are imitated by viruses spreading. With different parameters of birth rates and finite-range, the normalized return series are simulated by Monte Carlo simulation method and numerical studied by power-law distribution analysis and autocorrelation analysis. To better understand the nonlinear dynamics of the return series, a q-order autocorrelation function and a multi-autocorrelation function are also definedmore » in this work. The comparisons of statistical behaviors of return series from the agent-based model and the daily historical market returns of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index indicate that the proposed model is a reasonable qualitative explanation for the price formation process of stock market systems.« less

Norwegian physicians' knowledge of the prices of pharmaceuticals: a survey.

PubMed

Eriksen, Ida Iren; Melberg, Hans Olav; Bringedal, Berit

2013-01-01

The objectives of this study are to measure physicians' knowledge of the prices of pharmaceuticals, and investigate whether there are differences in knowledge of prices between groups of physicians. This article reports on a survey study of physicians' knowledge of the prices of pharmaceuticals conducted on a representative sample of Norwegian physicians in the autumn of 2010. The importance of physicians' knowledge of costs derives from their influence on total spending and allocation of limited health-care resources. Physicians are important drivers in the effort to contain costs in health care, but only if they have the knowledge needed to choose the most cost-effective treatment options. A survey was sent to 1543 Norwegian physicians, asking them for price estimates and their opinions on the importance of considering the cost of treatment to society as a decision factor when treating their patients. This article deals with a subsection in which the physicians were asked to estimate the price of five pharmaceuticals: simvastatin, alendronate (Fosamax), infliximab (Remicade), natalizumab (Tysabri) and escitalopram (Cipralex). The response rate was 65%. For all the five pharmaceuticals, more than 50% and as many as 83% gave responses that differed more than 50% from the actual drug price. The price of more expensive pharmaceuticals was underestimated, while the opposite was the case for less expensive medicines. The data show that physicians in general have poor knowledge of the prices of the pharmaceuticals they offer their patients. However, the physicians who frequently deal with a drug have better knowledge of its price than those who do not handle a medication as often. The data also suggest that those physicians who agree that cost of care to society is an important decision factor have better knowledge of drug prices.

Norwegian Physicians’ Knowledge of the Prices of Pharmaceuticals: A Survey

PubMed Central

Eriksen, Ida Iren; Melberg, Hans Olav; Bringedal, Berit

2013-01-01

The objectives of this study are to measure physicians’ knowledge of the prices of pharmaceuticals, and investigate whether there are differences in knowledge of prices between groups of physicians. This article reports on a survey study of physicians’ knowledge of the prices of pharmaceuticals conducted on a representative sample of Norwegian physicians in the autumn of 2010. The importance of physicians’ knowledge of costs derives from their influence on total spending and allocation of limited health-care resources. Physicians are important drivers in the effort to contain costs in health care, but only if they have the knowledge needed to choose the most cost-effective treatment options. A survey was sent to 1 543 Norwegian physicians, asking them for price estimates and their opinions on the importance of considering the cost of treatment to society as a decision factor when treating their patients. This article deals with a subsection in which the physicians were asked to estimate the price of five pharmaceuticals: simvastatin, alendronate (Fosamax), infliximab (Remicade), natalizumab (Tysabri) and escitalopram (Cipralex). The response rate was 65%. For all the five pharmaceuticals, more than 50% and as many as 83% gave responses that differed more than 50% from the actual drug price. The price of more expensive pharmaceuticals was underestimated, while the opposite was the case for less expensive medicines. The data show that physicians in general have poor knowledge of the prices of the pharmaceuticals they offer their patients. However, the physicians who frequently deal with a drug have better knowledge of its price than those who do not handle a medication as often. The data also suggest that those physicians who agree that cost of care to society is an important decision factor have better knowledge of drug prices. PMID:24040402

An empirical investigation of spatial differentiation and price floor regulations in retail markets for gasoline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houde, Jean-Francois

In the first essay of this dissertation, I study an empirical model of spatial competition. The main feature of my approach is to formally specify commuting paths as the "locations" of consumers in a Hotelling-type model of spatial competition. The main consequence of this location assumption is that the substitution patterns between stations depend in an intuitive way on the structure of the road network and the direction of traffic flows. The demand-side of the model is estimated by combining a model of traffic allocation with econometric techniques used to estimate models of demand for differentiated products (Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995)). The estimated parameters are then used to evaluate the importance of commuting patterns in explaining the distribution of gasoline sales, and compare the economic predictions of the model with the standard home-location model. In the second and third essays, I examine empirically the effect of a price floor regulation on the dynamic and static equilibrium outcomes of the gasoline retail industry. In particular, in the second essay I study empirically the dynamic entry and exit decisions of gasoline stations, and measure the impact of a price floor on the continuation values of staying in the industry. In the third essay, I develop and estimate a static model of quantity competition subject to a price floor regulation. Both models are estimated using a rich panel dataset on the Quebec gasoline retail market before and after the implementation of a price floor regulation.

Market interdependence among commodity prices based on information transmission on the Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Qiang; Guo, Jian-Feng

2015-05-01

Human behaviour on the Internet has become a synchro-projection of real society. In this paper, we introduce the public concern derived from query volumes on the Web to empirically analyse the influence of information on commodity markets (e.g., crude oil, heating oil, corn and gold) using multivariate GARCH models based on dynamic conditional correlations. The analysis found that the changes of public concern on the Internet can well depict the changes of market prices, as the former has significant Granger causality effects on market prices. The findings indicate that the information of external shocks to commodity markets could be transmitted quickly, and commodity markets easily absorb the public concern of the information-sensitive traders. Finally, the conditional correlation among commodity prices varies dramatically over time.

Climate regulation enhances the value of second generation biofuel technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertel, T. W.; Steinbuks, J.; Tyner, W.

2014-12-01

Commercial scale implementation of second generation (2G) biofuels has long been 'just over the horizon - perhaps a decade away'. However, with recent innovations, and higher oil prices, we appear to be on the verge of finally seeing commercial scale implementations of cellulosic to liquid fuel conversion technologies. Interest in this technology derives from many quarters. Environmentalists see this as a way of reducing our carbon footprint, however, absent a global market for carbon emissions, private firms will not factor this into their investment decisions. Those interested in poverty and nutrition see this as a channel for lessening the biofuels' impact on food prices. But what is 2G technology worth to society? How valuable are prospective improvements in this technology? And how are these valuations affected by future uncertainties, including climate regulation, climate change impacts, and energy prices? This paper addresses all of these questions. We employ FABLE, a dynamic optimization model for the world's land resources which characterizes the optimal long run path for protected natural lands, managed forests, crop and livestock land use, energy extraction and biofuels over the period 2005-2105. By running this model twice for each future state of the world - once with 2G biofuels technology available and once without - we measure the contribution of the technology to global welfare. Given the uncertainty in how these technologies are likely to evolve, we consider a range cost estimates - from optimistic to pessimistic. In addition to technological uncertainty, there is great uncertainty in the conditions characterizing our baseline for the 21st century. For each of the 2G technology scenarios, we therefore also consider a range of outcomes for key drivers of global land use, including: population, income, oil prices, climate change impacts and climate regulation. We find that the social valuation of 2G technologies depends critically on climate change regulations and future oil prices. In the base case with no climate policy and higher oil prices, the value of second generation biofuels is roughly $8 billion. With stringent climate change regulations in place, 2G biofuels are worth about fifty percent more.

Complex phenomena in social and financial systems : from bird population growth to the dynamics of the mutual fund industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarzkopf, Yonathan

2011-12-01

This dissertation explores the impact of gasoline prices and transportation policies on consumer behavior through three separate channels: (1) by affecting the relative operating costs of the vehicles in a household's garage, (2) through stimulation of vehicle purchases due to the Cash-for-Clunkers policy, and (3) due to the availability and accessibility of high quality public transportation. Each of these channels is explored in a separate chapter. The first chapter presents a discrete-continuous household vehicle bundle model, where the household's choice of vehicles and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is affected by gasoline prices and household and vehicle characteristics. I employ a revealed preference approach that allows for an unlimited choice set, within household vehicle substitution, vehicle specific fixed effects, and unobserved consumer heterogeneity. I use detailed micro-data from the National Household Transportation Survey (NHTS) 2001 and 2009 to explore how different research assumptions affect how elastic households appear to the researcher. The second chapter analyzes the impact of the Cash-for-Clunkers policy implemented in fall 2009 on vehicle demand, overall emissions, gasoline demand, and job creation. We employ a difference-in-difference estimation technique, using Canada as the control group, and find that the policy overpriced the reduction of emissions relative to other emissions reductions policies. Finally, the third chapter explores how the availability of public transportation affects how sensitive individuals are to gasoline prices. Through the use of regressions and the NHTS 2001 dataset, we find that living in a city with good public transportation allows individuals to substitute a portion of their VMT, specifically in commuting, from private to public transit options, thus increasing their sensitivity to gasoline prices. We find that a gasoline tax in conjunction with an improvement in public transportation infrastructure could significantly reduce gasoline demand more than just a gasoline tax alone. There are many factors that affect gasoline and vehicle demand- public policies, household heterogeneity, public transportation availability, and prices. This dissertation explores how different research assumptions and techniques can change how responsive individuals appear to gasoline prices, and analyzes the impact of different transportation policies on overall gasoline and vehicle demand.

Emergence of universal scaling in financial markets from mean-field dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vikram, S. V.; Sinha, Sitabhra

2011-01-01

Collective phenomena with universal properties have been observed in many complex systems with a large number of components. Here we present a microscopic model of the emergence of scaling behavior in such systems, where the interaction dynamics between individual components is mediated by a global variable making the mean-field description exact. Using the example of financial markets, we show that asset price can be such a global variable with the critical role of coordinating the actions of agents who are otherwise independent. The resulting model accurately reproduces empirical properties such as the universal scaling of the price fluctuation and volume distributions, long-range correlations in volatility, and multiscaling.

Economic analysis of U.S. ethanol expansion issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhuri, Malika

The dependency of the U.S. economy on crude oil imported from politically unstable countries, escalating energy demand world wide, growing nationwide environmental consciousness, and the Renewable Fuels Standards (RFS) government mandates are some of the primary factors that have provided a favorable environment for the growth and development of the U.S. ethanol industry. The first essay derives decision rules for a discrete-time dynamic hedging model in a multiple commodity framework under expected utility maximization and basis risk. It compares hedging performance of three types of hedging models, namely constant hedging, time-varying static hedging model and the new dynamic hedging rule derived in this study. Findings show that natural gas futures contracts were effective instruments for hedging ethanol spot price risk before March, 2005, when ethanol futures trading was initiated on the CBOT. However, post-March, 2005, corn and ethanol futures contracts proved to be efficient hedging instruments. Results also indicate that ethanol producers may effectively decrease variance of cumulative cash flows by hedging using ethanol, natural gas and corn futures prices using the traditional techniques. The study concludes that using the new dynamic hedge model in a three period and two commodity set up, producers can effectively reduce variance of cumulative cash flow by 13.2% as compared to the 'no hedge' scenario. In my second essay, I use choice based, conjoint analysis methods to estimate consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for alternative transportation fuels in the U.S. In this study, I consider unleaded gasoline and ethanol, which may be derived from corn or three different sources of cellulosic biomass as alternative transportation fuels. Results suggest that age and household income are some of the socioeconomic variables that significantly influence consumer's choice behavior. Results indicate considerable consumer preference heterogeneity. Welfare effects are analyzed when consumers are faced with restricted choice sets. Results suggest that possible government mandates on the consumption of E-10 and E-85 diminish welfare of individuals belonging to the segment 'Conventional Gasoline Acceptor'. Similarly, individuals belonging to 'Ethanol Acceptor' segment experience welfare losses if corn grain ethanol is not available as an alternative transportation fuel. Ethanol is increasingly being used as a gasoline oxygenate and a volume extender in the refinery and blender industry in the U.S. This paper estimates refinery and blender factor demand and evaluates price responsiveness of inputs. The study also develops and tests hypotheses regarding existence of structural change in the industry's demand for inputs. It determines whether there is a common shift point and adjustment rate for structural change in all the refinery and blender inputs by using gradual switching multivariate regression techniques and maximum likelihood methods. Results suggest a structural change in factor demand for inputs in the industry that occurs at different points and rates. Results also suggest that the demand for inputs, except for capital and unfinished oil, has become more inelastic over time.

Tuberculosis drug issues: prices, fixed-dose combination products and second-line drugs.

PubMed

Laing, R O; McGoldrick, K M

2000-12-01

Access to tuberculosis drugs depends on multiple factors. Selection of a standard list of TB drugs to procure is the first step. This paper reviews the advantages and disadvantages of procuring and using fixed-dose combination (FDC) products for both the intensive and continuation phases of treatment. The major advantages are to prevent the emergence of resistance, to simplify logistic management and to reduce costs. The major disadvantage is the need for the manufacturers to assure the quality of these FDCs by bioavailability testing. The paper reports on the inclusion of second-line TB drugs in the 1999 WHO Essential Drug List (EDL). The need to ensure that these drugs are used within established DOTS-Plus programs is stressed. The price of TB drugs is determined by many factors, including producer prices, local taxes and duties as well as mark-ups and fees. TB drug prices for both the public and private sectors from industrialized and developing countries are reported. Price trends over time are also reported. The key findings of this study are that TB drug prices have generally declined in developing countries while they have increased in developed countries, both for the public and private sectors. Prices vary between countries, with the US paying as much as 95 times the price paid in a specific developing country. The prices of public sector first-line TB drugs vary little between countries, although differences do exist due to the procurement methods used. The price of tuberculin, a diagnostic agent, has increased dramatically in the US, with substantial inter-country variations in price. The paper suggests that further research is necessary to identify the reasons for the price disparities and changes over time, and suggests methods which can be used by National Tuberculosis Programme managers to ensure availability of quality assured TB drugs at low prices.

[Preliminary influence of 2015 cigarette excise tax up-regulation on cigarette retail price].

PubMed

Feng, G Z; Wang, C X; Yang, J Q; Jiang, Y

2016-10-10

Objective: To evaluate the impact of cigarette excise tax up-regulation on the retail price of cigarettes in 2015. Methods: Nominal and real price of selected cigarette varieties were calculated with data from Tobacco Retail Price Monitoring Project, which was conducted in 10 cities of China from 2013 to 2015. The trend of the cigarette prices changing was analyzed with annual data. Results: A total of 352 varieties of cigarettes were surveyed during the three years. The nominal price of these cigarettes did not change significantly from 2013 to 2014. Compared with nominal price of 2014, the price of 286 varieties increased and the price of 10 most popular varieties increased from 0.6 % to 7.4 % after cigarette excise tax increased, but the actual prices had both rise and fall compared with 2013. Conclusions: Cigarette excise tax raise in 2015 had influence on the retail price of cigarettes. But the increase in retail price was very limited, if factors including inflation and purchasing power are taken into consideration. Therefore, the influence of 2015 cigarette excise tax raise on tobacco control needs further evaluation.

State energy price and expenditure report 1993

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-12-01

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates individually for the 50 states and the District of Columbia and in aggregate for the US. The five economic sectors used in SEPER correspond to those used in SEDR and are residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility. Documentation in appendices describe how the price estimates are developed, provide conversion factors for measures used in the energy analysis, and include a glossary. 65 tabs.

Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of Factors Affecting Real Property Price Index From Case Study Research In Istanbul/Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denli, H. H.; Koc, Z.

2015-12-01

Estimation of real properties depending on standards is difficult to apply in time and location. Regression analysis construct mathematical models which describe or explain relationships that may exist between variables. The problem of identifying price differences of properties to obtain a price index can be converted into a regression problem, and standard techniques of regression analysis can be used to estimate the index. Considering regression analysis for real estate valuation, which are presented in real marketing process with its current characteristics and quantifiers, the method will help us to find the effective factors or variables in the formation of the value. In this study, prices of housing for sale in Zeytinburnu, a district in Istanbul, are associated with its characteristics to find a price index, based on information received from a real estate web page. The associated variables used for the analysis are age, size in m2, number of floors having the house, floor number of the estate and number of rooms. The price of the estate represents the dependent variable, whereas the rest are independent variables. Prices from 60 real estates have been used for the analysis. Same price valued locations have been found and plotted on the map and equivalence curves have been drawn identifying the same valued zones as lines.

Exploratory study on the effect of discount pricing strategies for new product introduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mat Zaib, Nurul Afiqah; Bazin, Nor Erne Nazira; Mustaffa, Noorfa Haszlinna

2013-04-01

Rapid introduction of new product into the market has resulted in growing competition between retailers. Nowadays, retailers compete with one another in order to increase revenue and to maintain their position in the marketplace. This situation has forced the retailers to enhance their strategic management as well as creating competitive advantages. Generally, this situation can be observed in highly demanded product such as fashion goods and high technology electronic devices (smart phone, notebook). The consequence from the intense competition and new product introduction is difficulties in retailers pricing management. Retailers are now facing with complexity in making decisions on suitable pricing strategies and discount level for new product in association with the product life cycle. Thus, this research aims to investigate the suitable discount pricing strategies that can be integrated in every phase of product life cycle. This paper presents relationships between the discount pricing and the stages in the product life cycle in the form of conceptual diagram and mathematical expression. A system dynamic approach is used for developing the conceptual diagram and formulating the mathematical expression for the discount pricing strategies to visualize the relationship between discount pricing and product life cycle.

Price adjustment for traditional Chinese medicine procedures: Based on a standardized value parity model.

PubMed

Wang, Haiyin; Jin, Chunlin; Jiang, Qingwu

2017-11-20

Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is an important part of China's medical system. Due to the prolonged low price of TCM procedures and the lack of an effective mechanism for dynamic price adjustment, the development of TCM has markedly lagged behind Western medicine. The World Health Organization (WHO) has emphasized the need to enhance the development of alternative and traditional medicine when creating national health care systems. The establishment of scientific and appropriate mechanisms to adjust the price of medical procedures in TCM is crucial to promoting the development of TCM. This study has examined incorporating value indicators and data on basic manpower expended, time spent, technical difficulty, and the degree of risk in the latest standards for the price of medical procedures in China, and this study also offers a price adjustment model with the relative price ratio as a key index. This study examined 144 TCM procedures and found that prices of TCM procedures were mainly based on the value of medical care provided; on average, medical care provided accounted for 89% of the price. Current price levels were generally low and the current price accounted for 56% of the standardized value of a procedure, on average. Current price levels accounted for a markedly lower standardized value of acupuncture, moxibustion, special treatment with TCM, and comprehensive TCM procedures. This study selected a total of 79 procedures and adjusted them by priority. The relationship between the price of TCM procedures and the suggested price was significantly optimized (p < 0.01). This study suggests that adjustment of the price of medical procedures based on a standardized value parity model is a scientific and suitable method of price adjustment that can serve as a reference for other provinces and municipalities in China and other countries and regions that mainly have fee-for-service (FFS) medical care.

5 CFR 591.227 - What adjustment factors does OPM add to the price indexes?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false What adjustment factors does OPM add to the price indexes? 591.227 Section 591.227 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS ALLOWANCES AND DIFFERENTIALS Cost-of-Living Allowance and Post Differential-Nonforeign Areas Cost-Of-Living Allowances §...

The price of drugs for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is a reflection of the unsustainable prices of cancer drugs: from the perspective of a large group of CML experts

PubMed Central

Abboud, Camille; Berman, Ellin; Cohen, Adam; Cortes, Jorge; DeAngelo, Daniel; Deininger, Michael; Devine, Steven; Druker, Brian; Fathi, Amir; Jabbour, Elias; Jagasia, Madan; Kantarjian, Hagop; Khoury, Jean; Laneuville, Pierre; Larson, Richard; Lipton, Jeffrey; Moore, Joseph O.; Mughal, Tariq; O’Brien, Susan; Pinilla-Ibarz, Javier; Quintas-Cardama, Alfonso; Radich, Jerald; Reddy, Vishnu; Schiffer, Charles; Shah, Neil; Shami, Paul; Silver, Richard T.; Snyder, David; Stone, Richard; Talpaz, Moshe; Tefferi, Ayalew; Van Etten, Richard A.; Wetzler, Meir; Abruzzese, Elisabetta; Apperley, Jane; Breccia, Massimo; Byrne, Jenny; Cervantes, Francisco; Chelysheva, Ekaterina; Clark, R. E.; de Lavallade, Hugues; Dyagil, Iryna; Gambacorti-Passerini, Carlo; Goldman, John; Haznedaroglu, Ibrahim; Hjorth-Hansen, Henrik; Holyoake, Tessa; Huntly, Brian; le Coutre, Philipp; Lomaia, Elza; Mahon, Francois-Xavier; Marin-Costa, David; Martinelli, Giovanni; Mayer, Jiri; Milojkovic, Dragana; Olavarria, Eduardo; Porkka, Kimmo; Richter, Johan; Rousselot, Philippe; Saglio, Giuseppe; Saydam, Guray; Stentoft, Jesper; Turkina, Anna; Vigneri, Paolo; Zaritskey, Andrey; Aguayo, Alvaro; Ayala, Manuel; Bendit, Israel; Maria Bengio, Raquel; Best, Carlos; Bullorsky, Eduardo; Cervera, Eduardo; DeSouza, Carmino; Fanilla, Ernesto; Gomez-Almaguer, David; Hamerschlak, Nelson; Lopez, Jose; Magarinos, Alicia; Meillon, Luis; Milone, Jorge; Moiraghi, Beatriz; Pasquini, Ricardo; Pavlovsky, Carolina; Ruiz-Arguelles, Guillermo J.; Spector, Nelson; Arthur, Christopher; Browett, Peter; Grigg, Andrew; Hu, Jianda; Huang, Xiao-jun; Hughes, Tim; Jiang, Qian; Jootar, Saengsuree; Kim, Dong-Wook; Malhotra, Hemant; Malhotra, Pankaj; Matsumura, Itaru; Melo, Junia; Ohnishi, Kazunori; Ohno, Ryuzo; Saikia, Tapan; Schwarer, Anthony P.; Takahashi, Naoto; Tam, Constantine; Tauchi, Tetsuzo; Usuki, Kensuke; Wang, Jianxiang; Abdel-Rahman, Fawzi; Deeb Saeed Aljurf, Mahmoud; Bazarbachi, Ali; Ben Yehuda, Dina; Chaudhri, Naeem; Durosinmi, Muheez; Kamel, Hossam; Louw, Vernon; Francis Matti, Bassam; Nagler, Arnon; Raanani, Pia; Salem, Ziad

2013-01-01

As a group of more than 100 experts in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), we draw attention to the high prices of cancer drugs, with the particular focus on the prices of approved tyrosine kinase inhibitors for the treatment of CML. This editorial addresses the multiple factors involved in cancer drug pricing and their impact on individual patients and health care policies, and argues for the need to (1) lower the prices of cancer drugs to allow more patients to afford them and (2) maintain sound long-term health care policies. PMID:23620577

76 FR 66319 - Notice of Certain Operating Cost Adjustment Factors for 2012

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-26

..., Residential Energy Price, 2009-2010 annual prices in dollars per 1,000 cubic feet at the state level. Due to... used as the best available indicator of OCAFs for these areas. The best current price data sources for..., electricity, and natural gas from Department of Energy surveys are relatively current and continue to be used...

76 FR 74088 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Stock Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-30

... rights and warrants are affected by the price of the underlying stock as well as other factors, particularly the volatility of the stock. As a consequence, the prices of rights and warrants may move more dramatically than the prices of the underlying stocks even when the rights and warrants (and the underlying...

76 FR 74101 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; EDGA Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-30

... rights and warrants are affected by the price of the underlying stock as well as other factors, particularly the volatility of the stock. As a consequence, the prices of rights and warrants may move more dramatically than the prices of the underlying stocks even when the rights and warrants (and the underlying...

26 CFR 1.6662-6 - Transactions between persons described in section 482 and net section 482 transfer price...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... transaction price initially reflected in the taxpayer's books and records. The results of controlled..., including an analysis of the economic and legal factors that affect the pricing of its property or services... the economic analysis and projections relied upon in developing the method. For example, if a profit...

Market structure in U.S. southern pine roundwood

Treesearch

Matthew F. Bingham; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Douglas J. MacNair; Robert C. Abt

2003-01-01

Time series of commodity prices from multiple locations can behave as if responding to forces of spatial arbitrage. cvcn while such prices may instead be responding similarly to common factors aside from spatial arbitrage. Hence, while the Law of One Price may hold as a statistical concept, its acceptance is not sufficient to conclude market integration. We tested...

Modeling stock price dynamics by continuum percolation system and relevant complex systems analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Di; Wang, Jun

2012-10-01

The continuum percolation system is developed to model a random stock price process in this work. Recent empirical research has demonstrated various statistical features of stock price changes, the financial model aiming at understanding price fluctuations needs to define a mechanism for the formation of the price, in an attempt to reproduce and explain this set of empirical facts. The continuum percolation model is usually referred to as a random coverage process or a Boolean model, the local interaction or influence among traders is constructed by the continuum percolation, and a cluster of continuum percolation is applied to define the cluster of traders sharing the same opinion about the market. We investigate and analyze the statistical behaviors of normalized returns of the price model by some analysis methods, including power-law tail distribution analysis, chaotic behavior analysis and Zipf analysis. Moreover, we consider the daily returns of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index from January 1997 to July 2011, and the comparisons of return behaviors between the actual data and the simulation data are exhibited.

Population dynamics and the economics of invasive species management: the greenhouse whitefly in California-grown strawberries.

PubMed

McKee, Gregory J; Goodhue, Rachael E; Zalom, Frank G; Carter, Colin A; Chalfant, James A

2009-01-01

In agriculture, relatively few efficacious control measures may be available for an invasive pest. In the case of a new insect pest, insecticide use decisions are affected by regulations associated with its registration, insect population dynamics, and seasonal market price cycles. We assess the costs and benefits of environmental regulations designed to regulate insecticide applications on an invasive species. We construct a bioeconomic model, based on detailed scientific data, of management decisions for a specific invasion: greenhouse whiteflies in California-grown strawberries. The empirical model integrates whitefly population dynamics, the effect of whitefly feeding on strawberry yields, and weekly strawberry price. We use the model to assess the optimality of alternative treatment programs on a simulated greenhouse whitefly population. Our results show that regulations may lead growers to "under-spray" when placed in an economic context, and provide some general lessons about the design of optimal invasive species control policies.

Archetypes of famine and response.

PubMed

Howe, Paul

2010-01-01

Famines have long been characterised by rapidly shifting dynamics: sudden price spirals, sharp increases in mortality, the media frenzy that often accompanies such spikes, the swift scaling up of aid flows, and a subsequent decline in interest. In arguing that these aspects of famine have been largely ignored in recent years due to attention to the famine process', this paper attempts to make these dynamics more explicit by applying systems thinking. It uses standard archetypes of systems thinking to explain six situations--watch, price spiral, aid magnet, media frenzy, overshoot, and peaks--that are present in many famine contexts. It illustrates their application with examples from crises in Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, and Sudan. The paper contends that the systems approach offers a tool for analysing the larger patterns in famines and for pinpointing the most appropriate responses to them, based on an awareness of the dynamics of the crises.

Ecological and economic analysis of poaching of the greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) in Nepal.

PubMed

Poudyal, Mahesh; Rothley, Kristina; Knowler, Duncan

2009-10-01

Nepal's greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) faces serious threats from poaching. Poaching of these rhinos is a complex problem, influenced by such diverse factors as the price of rhino horn on the international market, local socioeconomic factors, and the population dynamics of the species. Few studies have attempted to address this complexity. In this study, we model the poaching and population dynamics of the one-horned rhinoceros within an integrated framework of ecological, socioeconomic, political, and legal dimensions. The poaching model for rhinos in Royal Chitwan National Park (RCNP) in Nepal is combined with the population model for the species within a simulation framework and explored under various alternative policy scenarios with differing external socioeconomic and political conditions as well as internal policy response. We predict that, under the current (2003-2005) rhino conservation strategy, poaching would continue to be a major threat to the rhino population in RCNP. Furthermore, the internal policy response must begin to consider external factors such as socioeconomic conditions within the park buffer zone to be more effective in the long run. Finally, we find that, for long-run control, antipoaching policies should be directed at increasing the opportunity costs of poaching by creating better alternative economic opportunities, and at antipoaching enforcement.

Three studies of retail gasoline pricing dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atkinson, Benjamin James

In many Canadian cities, retail gasoline prices appear to cycle, rising by large amounts in one or two days followed by several days of small consecutive price decreases. While many empirical studies examine such markets, certain questions cannot b e properly answered without high frequency, station-specific price data for an entire market. Thus, the first paper in this thesis uses bi-hourly price data collected for 27 stations in Guelph, Ontario, eight tunes per day for 103 days to examine several basic predictions of the Edgeworth cycle theory. The results are largely consistent with this theory. However, most independent firms do not tend to undercut their rivals' prices, contrary to previous findings. Furthermore, the tuning, sizes and leaders of price increases appear to be very predictable, and a specific pattern of price movements has been detected on days when prices increase. These findings suggest that leading a price increase might not be as risky as one may expect. The second paper uses these same data to examine the implications o f an informal theory of competitive gasoline pricing, as advanced by industry and government. Consistent with this theory, stations do tend to set prices to match (or set a small positive or negative differential with) a small number of other stations, which are not necessarily the closest stations. Also, while retailers frequently respond to price changes within two hours, many take considerably longer to respond than is predicted by the theory. Finally, while price decreases do ripple across the market like falling dominos, increases appear to propagate based more on geographic location and source of price control than proximity to the leaders. The third paper uses both these data and Guelph price data collected every 12 hours during the same 103 days from OntarioGasPrices.com to examine the sample selection biases that might exist in such Internet price data, as well as their implications for empirical research. It is found that the Internet data tend to accurately identify features of cycles that can be distinguished using company-operated, major brand station prices, while features that require individual independent station data or very high frequency data might not be well-identified.

Pricing health care services: applications to the health maintenance organization.

PubMed

Sweeney, R E; Franklin, S P

1986-01-01

This article illustrates how management in one type of service industry, the health maintenance organization (HMO), have attempted to formalize pricing. This effort is complicated by both the intangibility of the service delivered and the relatively greater influence in service industries of non-cost price factors such as accessibility, psychology, and delays. The presentation describes a simple computerized approach that allows the marketing manager to formally estimate the effect of incremental changes in rates on the firm's projected patterns of enrollment growth and net revenues. The changes in turn reflect underlying variations in the mix of pricing influences including psychological and other factors. Enrollment projections are crucial to the firm's financial planning and staffing. In the past, most HMO enrollment and revenue projections of this kind were notoriously unreliable. The approach described here makes it possible for HMOs to fine-tune their pricing policies. It also provides a formal and easily understood mechanism by which management can evaluate and reach consensus on alternative scenarios for enrollment growth, staff recruitment and capacity expansion.

Pricing and competition in the private dental market in Finland.

PubMed

Widström, E; Väisänen, A; Mikkola, H

2011-06-01

To investigate how the prices were set in private dental care, which factors determined prices and whether the recent National Dental Care Reform had increased competition in the dental care market in Finland. A questionnaire to all full time private dentists (n = 1,121) in the ten largest cities. Characteristics of the practice, prices charged, price setting, perceived competition and expectations for the practices were requested. The response rate was 59.6%. Correlation analysis (Pearson's) was used to study relationships between the prices of different treatment items. Linear regression analysis was used to study determinants of the price of a one surface filling. Most dentists' fee schedules were based on the price of a one surface filling and updated annually. Changes in practice costs calculated by the dentists' professional association and information on average prices charged on dental treatments in the country influenced pricing. High price levels were associated with specialisation, working in a group practice, working close to many other practices or in a town with a dental school. Less than half of the respondents had faced competition in dental services and price competition was insignificant. Price setting followed traditional patterns and private markets in dental services were not found to be very competitive.

Frequency Based Real-time Pricing for Residential Prosumers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hambridge, Sarah Mabel

This work is the first to explore frequency based pricing for secondary frequency control as a price-reactive control mechanism for residential prosumers. A frequency based real-time electricity rate is designed as an autonomous market control mechanism for residential prosumers to provide frequency support as an ancillary service. In addition, prosumers are empowered to participate in dynamic energy transactions, therefore integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), and increasing distributed energy storage onto the distributed grid. As the grid transitions towards DERs, a new market based control system will take the place of the legacy distributed system and possibly the legacy bulk power system. DERs provide many benefits such as energy independence, clean generation, efficiency, and reliability to prosumers during blackouts. However, the variable nature of renewable energy and current lack of installed energy storage on the grid will create imbalances in supply and demand as uptake increases, affecting the grid frequency and system operation. Through a frequency-based electricity rate, prosumers will be encouraged to purchase energy storage systems (ESS) to offset their neighbor's distributed generation (DG) such as solar. Chapter 1 explains the deregulation of the power system and move towards Distributed System Operators (DSOs), as prosumers become owners of microgrids and energy cells connected to the distributed system. Dynamic pricing has been proposed as a benefit to prosumers, giving them the ability to make decisions in the energy market, while also providing a way to influence and control their behavior. Frequency based real-time pricing is a type of dynamic pricing which falls between price-reactive control and transactive control. Prosumer-to-prosumer transactions may take the place of prosumer-to-utility transactions, building The Energy Internet. Frequency based pricing could be a mechanism for determining prosumer prices and supporting stability in a free, competitive, market. Frequency based pricing is applied to secondary frequency control in this work, providing support at one to five minute time intervals. In Chapter 2, a frequency based pricing curve is designed as a preliminary study and the response of the prosumer is optimized for economic dispatch. In Chapter 3, a day-ahead schedule and real-time adjustment energy management framework is presented for the prosumer, creating a market structure similar to the existing energy market supervised by Independent System Operators (ISOs). Enabling technology, such as the solid state transformer (SST) is described for prosumer energy transactions, controlling power flow from the prosumer's energy cell to the grid or neighboring prosumer as an energy router. Experimental results are shown to demonstrate this capability. Additionally, the SST is capable of measuring the grid frequency. Lastly, a frequency based real-time hybrid electricity rate is presented in Chapter 4 and Chapter 5. Chapter 4 specializes in a single direction rate while Chapter 5 presents a bi-directional rate. A Time-of-use (TOU) rate is combined with the real-time frequency based price to lower energy bills for a residential prosumer with ESS, in agreement with the proposed day-ahead and real-time energy management framework. The cost to the ESS is also considered in this section. Linear programming and strategic rule based methods are utilized to find the lowest energy bill. As a result, prosumers can use ESS to balance the grid, reducing their bill as much per kWh as PV or DG under a TOU net-metering price scheme, while providing distributed frequency support to the grid authority. The variability of the frequency based rate is similar to variability in the stock market, which gives a sense of how prosumers will interact with variable prices in a system supported by The Energy Internet.

Factors affecting the willingness to pay for implants: A study of patients in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Al Garni, Bishi; Pani, Sharat Chandra; Almaaz, Adel; Al Qeshtaini, Ehsan; Abu-Haimed, Hamad; Al Sharif, Khalid

2012-11-01

One of the factors that dissuade patients needing tooth replacement from choosing dental implants is the prohibitive cost. Willingness to pay (WTP) is a useful tool to determine the ideal cost of an expensive procedure. The aim of this study was to study the factors that influence the willingness to pay (WTP) among patients attending a private clinic and compare them to those attending a government setup. A total of 100 patients (38 male, 62 female) who had one or more missing teeth were presented with different cost-benefit scenarios and then asked if they were willing to pay the median cost of a single implant in Riyadh city. The mean WTP price was compared using the one way-ANOVA, factors which could possibly influence patients' WTP were grouped together in a Binomial logistic regression model. Of the 100 individuals surveyed 67% said they would be willing to pay the median price for the placement of an implant. A comparison of socio-demographic factors showed that significant differences were found between gender, income groups and setting of the clinic in the mean WTP price of the patients (P < 0.05). We also found that there was a significant difference in the mean WTP price between groups with regard to the area of the missing tooth, the patients' perception of their oral health and the their desire to want an implant (P < 0.05). The majority of the patients surveyed were willing to pay the median price for an implant. Willingness to pay (WTP) is a multifactorial variable which is significantly influenced by the income of the patient, the setting of the clinic and the gender; the most significant factor being the acceptability of the implant to the patient.

Panel data models with spatial correlation: Estimation theory and an empirical investigation of the United States wholesale gasoline industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapoor, Mudit

The first part of my dissertation considers the estimation of a panel data model with error components that are both spatially and time-wise correlated. The dissertation combines widely used model for spatial correlation (Cliff and Ord (1973, 1981)) with the classical error component panel data model. I introduce generalizations of the generalized moments (GM) procedure suggested in Kelejian and Prucha (1999) for estimating the spatial autoregressive parameter in case of a single cross section. I then use those estimators to define feasible generalized least squares (GLS) procedures for the regression parameters. I give formal large sample results concerning the consistency of the proposed GM procedures, as well as the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed feasible GLS procedures. The new estimators remain computationally feasible even in large samples. The second part of my dissertation employs a Cliff-Ord-type model to empirically estimate the nature and extent of price competition in the US wholesale gasoline industry. I use data on average weekly wholesale gasoline price for 289 terminals (distribution facilities) in the US. Data on demand factors, cost factors and market structure that affect price are also used. I consider two time periods, a high demand period (August 1999) and a low demand period (January 2000). I find a high level of competition in prices between neighboring terminals. In particular, price in one terminal is significantly and positively correlated to the price of its neighboring terminal. Moreover, I find this to be much higher during the low demand period, as compared to the high demand period. In contrast to previous work, I include for each terminal the characteristics of the marginal customer by controlling for demand factors in the neighboring location. I find these demand factors to be important during period of high demand and insignificant during the low demand period. Furthermore, I have also considered spatial correlation in unobserved factors that affect price. I find it to be high and significant only during the low demand period. Not correcting for it leads to incorrect inferences regarding exogenous explanatory variables.

The upward spiral of drug costs: a time series analysis of drugs used in the treatment of hemophilia.

PubMed

Rogoff, Edward G; Guirguis, Hany S; Lipton, Richard A; Seremetis, Stephanie V; DiMichele, Donna M; Agnew, George M; Karpatkin, Margaret; Barish, Robert J; Jones, Robert L; Bianco, Celso; Knothe, Barbara D; Lee, Myung-Soo

2002-10-01

Hemophilia is an expensive disease because its treatment is heavily dependent on costly clotting factor drugs. Over the last nine years,a consortium of three Comprehensive Hemophilia Treatment Centers and other hospitals, which purchased clotting factors for their patients, has seen treatment costs escalate on average 17% annually. Currently, new, even more expensive drugs are entering the market. This study analyzes 3,244 purchases that were made over a nine-year period totaling nearly 500 million units of clotting factor, representing every product on the market. Purchases were made both apart from and under the Federal Public Health Service (PHS)discount pricing rules. The main cause of the increases was the move to newer, more expensive products. The average price of existing products increased less than 2%per year, but new products were priced, on average, 47% higher than existing products. Overall consumption increased by an average of 5% per year, likely reflecting prophylactic treatment modalities that require greater amounts of clotting factor. Government pricing programs, such as the PHS program, were ineffective or counterproductive at reducing costs. There is a notable absence of competition in this market, with a few dominant companies having a functional monopoly in the largest segments of the market. Prices of older products are not lowered, even when new products are brought to market. A few products that serve small patient groups have had their prices increased substantially. This escalation is likely to continue as new, more expensive clotting factor drugs are developed. Since these new products are not proven to be any safer or more effective than the current products, this situation creates a risk of intervention by government and insurers to address both treatment costs and exhaustion of patients' insurance caps. Drug companies are not serving the patients by pricing new, but often very similar, products so aggressively. The trends seen in this patient group will likely be seen in other patient groups in the future. Ultimately, doctors and patients will lose treatment options and health care availability unless collaborative strategies are developed to reduce costs.

Year in Review: Crude Oil Prices 2014

EIA Publications

2015-01-01

This report gives an overview of the primary drivers of crude oil price movements in 2014, in particular the substantial price decline that took place during the second half of the year. Factors such as increased global supply of crude oil, lower crude oil supply disruptions, lower economic growth expectations, and currency exchange rate movements are explored in the report. In addition, links are provided to several other published EIA articles with further in-depth discussion of topics related to the oil price decline.

Evaluating National Environmental Sustainability: Performance Measures and Influential Factors for OECD-Member Countries featuring Canadian Performance and Policy Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calbick, Kenneth S.

This research reviews five studies that evaluate national environmental sustainability with composite indices; performs uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of techniques for building a composite index; completes principal components factor analysis to help build subindices measuring waste and pollution, sustainable energy, sustainable food, nature conservation, and sustainable cities (Due to its current importance, the greenhouse gases (GHG) indicator is included individually as another policy measure.); analyses factors that seem to influence performance: climate, population growth, population density, economic output, technological development, industrial structure, energy prices, environmental governance, pollution abatement and control expenditures, and environmental pricing; and explores Canadian policy implications of the results. The techniques to build composite indices include performance indicator selection, missing data treatment, normalisation technique, scale-effect adjustments, weights, and aggregation method. Scale-effect adjustments and normalisation method are significant sources of uncertainty inducing 68% of the observed variation in a country's final rank at the 95% level of confidence. Choice of indicators also introduces substantial variation as well. To compensate for this variation, the current study recommends that a composite index should always be analysed with other policy subindices and individual indicators. Moreover, the connection between population and consumption indicates that per capita scale-effect adjustments should be used for certain indicators. Rather than ranking normalisation, studies should use a method that retains information from the raw indicator values. Multiple regression and cluster analyses indicate economic output, environmental governance, and energy prices are major influential factors, with energy prices the most important. It is statistically significant for five out of seven performance measures at the 95% level of confidence: 37% variance explained on the environmental sustainability performance composite indicator out of 73%, 55% (of 55%) on the waste and pollution subindex, 20% (of 70%) on the sustainable energy subindex, 5% (of 100%) on the sustainable cities subindex, and 55% (of 81%) on the GHG indicator. Energy prices are relevant to Canadian policy; increasing prices could substantially improve Canada's performance. Policy makers should increase energy prices through a carbon pricing strategy that is congruent with the ecological fiscal reform advanced by the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy. Keywords: sustainable development; composite indices; environmental policy; environmental governance; energy prices; Canada.

Consumer behaviour towards price-reduced suboptimal foods in the supermarket and the relation to food waste in households.

PubMed

Aschemann-Witzel, Jessica; Jensen, Jacob Haagen; Jensen, Mette Hyldetoft; Kulikovskaja, Viktorija

2017-09-01

To combat food waste, supermarkets offer food items at a reduced price in-store when they are close to the expiration date or perceived as suboptimal. It is yet unknown, however, which considerations consumers engage in when deciding about the offer, and whether focusing particularly on the price during food purchase might be related to greater food waste at home. Knowledge about both the consumers' food purchase process for these price-reduced foods and the potential wastage of price-focused consumers can contribute to the assessment of whether or not offering suboptimal food at reduced prices in-store actually reduces food waste across the supply chain. We explore these questions in a mixed-method study including 16 qualitative accompanied shopping interviews and a quantitative online experimental survey with 848 consumers in Denmark. The interviews reveal that the consumers interviewed assess their ability to consume the price-reduced suboptimal food at home already while in the store. Consumers consider the relation between product-related factors of package unit, expiration date, and product quality, in interaction with household-related factors of freezing/storing, household size/demand, and possible meal/cooking. The survey shows that consumers who are more price-focused report lower food waste levels and lower tendency to choose the optimal food item first at home, than those who are not emphasizing the price-quality relation or do not search for price offers to the same extent. Higher age and high education also played a role, and the price-focus is lower in high-income groups and among single households. The findings allow deriving recommendations for retailers and policy makers to support both the marketability and the subsequent actual consumption of price-reduced suboptimal food, but they also raise questions for further research of this underexplored area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Store-directed price promotions and communications strategies improve healthier food supply and demand: impact results from a randomized controlled, Baltimore City store-intervention trial

PubMed Central

Budd, Nadine; Jeffries, Jayne K; Jones-Smith, Jessica; Kharmats, Anna; McDermott, Ann Yelmokas; Gittelsohn, Joel

2017-01-01

Objective Small food store interventions show promise to increase healthy food access in under-resourced areas. However, none have tested the impact of price discounts on healthy food supply and demand. We tested the impact of store-directed price discounts and communications strategies, separately and combined, on the stocking, sales and prices of healthier foods and on storeowner psychosocial factors. Design Factorial design randomized controlled trial. Setting Twenty-four corner stores in low-income neighbourhoods of Baltimore City, MD, USA. Subjects Stores were randomized to pricing intervention, communications intervention, combined pricing and communications intervention, or control. Stores that received the pricing intervention were given a 10–30% price discount by wholesalers on selected healthier food items during the 6-month trial. Communications stores received visual and interactive materials to promote healthy items, including signage, taste tests and refrigerators. Results All interventions showed significantly increased stock of promoted foods υ. control. There was a significant treatment effect for daily unit sales of healthy snacks (β = 6·4, 95% CI 0·9, 11·9) and prices of healthy staple foods (β = −0·49, 95% CI −0·90, −0·03) for the combined group υ. control, but not for other intervention groups. There were no significant intervention effects on storeowner psychosocial factors. Conclusions All interventions led to increased stock of healthier foods. The combined intervention was effective in increasing sales of healthier snacks, even though discounts on snacks were not passed to the consumer. Experimental research in small stores is needed to understand the mechanisms by which store-directed price promotions can increase healthy food supply and demand. PMID:28222818

Store-directed price promotions and communications strategies improve healthier food supply and demand: impact results from a randomized controlled, Baltimore City store-intervention trial.

PubMed

Budd, Nadine; Jeffries, Jayne K; Jones-Smith, Jessica; Kharmats, Anna; McDermott, Ann Yelmokas; Gittelsohn, Joel

2017-12-01

Small food store interventions show promise to increase healthy food access in under-resourced areas. However, none have tested the impact of price discounts on healthy food supply and demand. We tested the impact of store-directed price discounts and communications strategies, separately and combined, on the stocking, sales and prices of healthier foods and on storeowner psychosocial factors. Factorial design randomized controlled trial. Twenty-four corner stores in low-income neighbourhoods of Baltimore City, MD, USA. Stores were randomized to pricing intervention, communications intervention, combined pricing and communications intervention, or control. Stores that received the pricing intervention were given a 10-30 % price discount by wholesalers on selected healthier food items during the 6-month trial. Communications stores received visual and interactive materials to promote healthy items, including signage, taste tests and refrigerators. All interventions showed significantly increased stock of promoted foods v. There was a significant treatment effect for daily unit sales of healthy snacks (β=6·4, 95 % CI 0·9, 11·9) and prices of healthy staple foods (β=-0·49, 95 % CI -0·90, -0·03) for the combined group v. control, but not for other intervention groups. There were no significant intervention effects on storeowner psychosocial factors. All interventions led to increased stock of healthier foods. The combined intervention was effective in increasing sales of healthier snacks, even though discounts on snacks were not passed to the consumer. Experimental research in small stores is needed to understand the mechanisms by which store-directed price promotions can increase healthy food supply and demand.

Biosimilar granulocyte colony-stimulating factor uptakes in the EU-5 markets: a descriptive analysis.

PubMed

Bocquet, François; Paubel, Pascal; Fusier, Isabelle; Cordonnier, Anne-Laure; Le Pen, Claude; Sinègre, Martine

2014-06-01

Biosimilars are copies of biological reference medicines. Unlike generics (copies of chemical molecules), biologics are complex, expensive and complicated to produce. The knowledge of the factors affecting the competition following patent expiry for biologics remains limited. The aims of this study were to analyse the EU-5 Granulocyte-Colony Stimulating Factor (G-CSF) markets and to determine the factors affecting the G-CSF biosimilar uptakes, particularly that of biosimilar prices relative to originators. Data on medicine volumes, values, and ex-manufacturer prices for all G-CSF categories were provided by IMS Health. Volumes were calculated in defined daily doses (DDD) and prices in Euros per DDD. In the EU-5 countries, there is 5 years of experience with biosimilar G-CSFs (2007-2011). Two G-CSF market profiles exist: (1) countries with a high retail market distribution, which are the largest G-CSF markets with low global G-CSF biosimilar uptakes (5.4% in France and 8.5% in Germany in 2011); and (2) countries with a dominant hospital channel, which are the smallest markets with higher G-CSF biosimilar uptakes (12.4% in Spain and 20.4% in the UK). The more the decisions are decentralized, the more their uptakes are high. The price difference between G-CSF biosimilars and their reference plays a marginal role at a global level (price differences of +13.3% in the UK and -20.4% in France). The competition with G-CSF biosimilars varies significantly between EU-5 countries, probably because of G-CSF distribution channel differences. Currently, this competition is not mainly based on prices, but on local political options to stimulate tendering between them and recently branded second- or third-generation products.

78 FR 69041 - Non-Oriented Electrical Steel From the People's Republic of China, Germany, Japan, the Republic...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-18

... physical characteristics of the subject merchandise in order to report the relevant factors and costs of... companies.\\29\\ For Korea and Taiwan, Petitioner treated quoted prices as the ex-factory prices.\\30\\ \\28\\ See.... Accordingly, the NV of the product is appropriately based on factors of production (FOPs) valued in a...

Building a panel data set on fuel stations located in the Spanish regional areas of Madrid and Barcelona

PubMed Central

Balaguer, Jacint; Ripollés, Jordi

2016-01-01

The data described in this article were collected daily over the period June 10, 2010, to November 25, 2012, from the website of the Spanish Ministry of Industry, Energy and Tourism. The database includes information about fuel stations regarding to their prices (both gross and net of taxes), brand, location (latitude and longitude), and postal code in the Spanish provinces of Madrid and Barcelona. Moreover, obtaining the postal codes has allowed us to select those stations that are operating within the metropolitan areas of Madrid and Barcelona. By considering those fuel stations that uninterruptedly provided prices during the entire period, the data can be especially useful to explore the dynamics of prices in fuel markets. This is the case of Balaguer and Ripollés (2016), “Asymmetric fuel price responses under heterogeneity” [1], who, taking into account the presence of the potential heterogeneity of the behaviour of fuel stations, used this statistical information to perform an analysis on asymmetric fuel price responses. PMID:26933671

Building a panel data set on fuel stations located in the Spanish regional areas of Madrid and Barcelona.

PubMed

Balaguer, Jacint; Ripollés, Jordi

2016-06-01

The data described in this article were collected daily over the period June 10, 2010, to November 25, 2012, from the website of the Spanish Ministry of Industry, Energy and Tourism. The database includes information about fuel stations regarding to their prices (both gross and net of taxes), brand, location (latitude and longitude), and postal code in the Spanish provinces of Madrid and Barcelona. Moreover, obtaining the postal codes has allowed us to select those stations that are operating within the metropolitan areas of Madrid and Barcelona. By considering those fuel stations that uninterruptedly provided prices during the entire period, the data can be especially useful to explore the dynamics of prices in fuel markets. This is the case of Balaguer and Ripollés (2016), "Asymmetric fuel price responses under heterogeneity" [1], who, taking into account the presence of the potential heterogeneity of the behaviour of fuel stations, used this statistical information to perform an analysis on asymmetric fuel price responses.

Price dynamics and market power in an agent-based power exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cincotti, Silvano; Guerci, Eric; Raberto, Marco

2005-05-01

This paper presents an agent-based model of a power exchange. Supply of electric power is provided by competing generating companies, whereas demand is assumed to be inelastic with respect to price and is constant over time. The transmission network topology is assumed to be a fully connected graph and no transmission constraints are taken into account. The price formation process follows a common scheme for real power exchanges: a clearing house mechanism with uniform price, i.e., with price set equal across all matched buyer-seller pairs. A single class of generating companies is considered, characterized by linear cost function for each technology. Generating companies compete for the sale of electricity through repeated rounds of the uniform auction and determine their supply functions according to production costs. However, an individual reinforcement learning algorithm characterizes generating companies behaviors in order to attain the expected maximum possible profit in each auction round. The paper investigates how the market competitive equilibrium is affected by market microstructure and production costs.

Pricing of common cosmetic surgery procedures: local economic factors trump supply and demand.

PubMed

Richardson, Clare; Mattison, Gennaya; Workman, Adrienne; Gupta, Subhas

2015-02-01

The pricing of cosmetic surgery procedures has long been thought to coincide with laws of basic economics, including the model of supply and demand. However, the highly variable prices of these procedures indicate that additional economic contributors are probable. The authors sought to reassess the fit of cosmetic surgery costs to the model of supply and demand and to determine the driving forces behind the pricing of cosmetic surgery procedures. Ten plastic surgery practices were randomly selected from each of 15 US cities of various population sizes. Average prices of breast augmentation, mastopexy, abdominoplasty, blepharoplasty, and rhytidectomy in each city were compared with economic and demographic statistics. The average price of cosmetic surgery procedures correlated substantially with population size (r = 0.767), cost-of-living index (r = 0.784), cost to own real estate (r = 0.714), and cost to rent real estate (r = 0.695) across the 15 US cities. Cosmetic surgery pricing also was found to correlate (albeit weakly) with household income (r = 0.436) and per capita income (r = 0.576). Virtually no correlations existed between pricing and the density of plastic surgeons (r = 0.185) or the average age of residents (r = 0.076). Results of this study demonstrate a correlation between costs of cosmetic surgery procedures and local economic factors. Cosmetic surgery pricing cannot be completely explained by the supply-and-demand model because no association was found between procedure cost and the density of plastic surgeons. © 2015 The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Inc. Reprints and permission: journals.permissions@oup.com.

China's medical savings accounts: an analysis of the price elasticity of demand for health care.

PubMed

Yu, Hao

2017-07-01

Although medical savings accounts (MSAs) have drawn intensive attention across the world for their potential in cost control, there is limited evidence of their impact on the demand for health care. This paper is intended to fill that gap. First, we built up a dynamic model of a consumer's problem of utility maximization in the presence of a nonlinear price schedule embedded in an MSA. Second, the model was implemented using data from a 2-year MSA pilot program in China. The estimated price elasticity under MSAs was between -0.42 and -0.58, i.e., higher than that reported in the literature. The relatively high price elasticity suggests that MSAs as an insurance feature may help control costs. However, the long-term effect of MSAs on health costs is subject to further analysis.

Climate change impacts on food system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

2014-12-01

Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

Supplemental nutrition assistance program and body weight outcomes: the role of economic contextual factors.

PubMed

Han, Euna; Powell, Lisa M; Isgor, Zeynep

2012-06-01

We explored the extent to which economic contextual factors moderated the association of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participation with body mass index (BMI) among low-income adults whose family income (adjusted for family size) is less than 130% of the federal poverty guideline. We drew on individual-level data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics in the United States, including three waves of data in 1999, 2001, and 2003. Economic contextual data were drawn from the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association for food prices and Dun & Bradstreet for food outlet measures. In addition to cross-sectional estimation, a longitudinal individual fixed effects model was used to control for permanent unobserved individual heterogeneity. Our study found a statistically significant joint moderating effect of the economic contextual factors in longitudinal individual fixed effects model for both women (BMI only) and men (both BMI and obesity). For both women and men, SNAP participants' BMI was statistically significantly lower if they faced increased numbers of available supermarkets/grocery stores in the longitudinal model. A simulated 20% reduction in the price of fruits and vegetables resulted in a larger decrease in BMI among SNAP participants than non-participants for women and men, whereas a simulated 20% increase in the availability of supermarkets and grocery stores resulted in a statistically significant difference in the change in BMI by SNAP participation for women but not for men. Policies related to economic contextual factors, such as subsidies for fruits and vegetables or those that would improve access to supermarkets and grocery stores may enhance the relationship between SNAP participation and body mass outcomes among food assistance program participants. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

48 CFR 19.1103 - Procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... waived the evaluation adjustment; or (2) An otherwise successful offer from a historically black college... adjustment, to be made at a price that exceeds fair market price by more than the factor as determined by the...

48 CFR 19.1103 - Procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... waived the evaluation adjustment; or (2) An otherwise successful offer from a historically black college... adjustment, to be made at a price that exceeds fair market price by more than the factor as determined by the...

48 CFR 19.1103 - Procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... waived the evaluation adjustment; or (2) An otherwise successful offer from a historically black college... adjustment, to be made at a price that exceeds fair market price by more than the factor as determined by the...

48 CFR 19.1103 - Procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... waived the evaluation adjustment; or (2) An otherwise successful offer from a historically black college... adjustment, to be made at a price that exceeds fair market price by more than the factor as determined by the...

48 CFR 19.1103 - Procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... waived the evaluation adjustment; or (2) An otherwise successful offer from a historically black college... adjustment, to be made at a price that exceeds fair market price by more than the factor as determined by the...

48 CFR 246.470-1 - Assessment of additional costs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... of Supplies—Fixed-Price; and (2) Demand payment of the costs in accordance with the collection... Supplies—Fixed-Price, after considering the factors in paragraph (c) of this subsection, the quality...

Cost-effectiveness and pricing of antibacterial drugs.

PubMed

Verhoef, Talitha I; Morris, Stephen

2015-01-01

Growing resistance to antibacterial agents has increased the need for the development of new drugs to treat bacterial infections. Given increasing pressure on limited health budgets, it is important to study the cost-effectiveness of these drugs, as well as their safety and efficacy, to find out whether or not they provide value for money and should be reimbursed. In this article, we systematically reviewed 38 cost-effectiveness analyses of new antibacterial agents. Most studies showed the new antibacterial drugs were cost-effective compared to older generation drugs. Drug pricing is a complicated process, involving different stakeholders, and has a large influence on cost-effectiveness. Value-based pricing is a method to determine the price of a drug at which it can be cost-effective. It is currently unclear what the influence of value-based pricing will be on the prices of new antibacterial agents, but an important factor will be the definition of 'value', which as well as the impact of the drug on patient health might also include other factors such as wider social impact and the health impact of disease. © 2015 The Authors. Chemical Biology & Drug Design Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Utility-Scale Solar 2016: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark; Seel, Joachim; LaCommare, Kristina Hamachi

The utility-scale solar sector has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012. In 2016, the utility-scale sector installed more than 2.5 times as much new capacity as did the residential and commercial sectors combined, and is expected to maintain its dominant position for at least another five years. This report—the fifth edition in an ongoing annual series—provides data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. We analyze not just installed project prices, but also operating costs, capacity factors, and power purchase agreement ("PPA") prices from a large sample of utility-scalemore » PV and CSP projects throughout the United States. Highlights from this year's edition include the following: Installation Trends: The use of solar tracking devices dominated 2016 installations, at nearly 80% of all new capacity. In a reflection of the ongoing geographic expansion of the market beyond California and the Southwest, the median long-term average insolation level at newly built project sites declined again in 2016. While new fixed-tilt projects are now seen predominantly in less-sunny regions, tracking projects are increasingly pushing into these same regions. The median inverter loading ratio has stabilized in 2016 at 1.3 for both tracking and fixed-tilt projects. Installed Prices: Median installed PV project prices within a sizable sample have fallen by two-thirds since the 2007-2009 period, to $2.2/WAC (or $1.7/WDC) for projects completed in 2016. The lowest 20th percentile of projects within our 2016 sample were priced at or below $2.0/WAC, with the lowest-priced projects around $1.5/WAC. Overall price dispersion across the entire sample and across geographic regions decreased significantly in 2016. Operation and Maintenance (“O&M”) Costs: What limited empirical O&M cost data are publicly available suggest that PV O&M costs were in the neighborhood of $18/kWAC-year, or $8/MWh, in 2016. These numbers include only those costs incurred to directly operate and maintain the generating plant. Capacity Factors: The cumulative net AC capacity factors of individual PV projects range widely, from 15.4% to 35.5%, with a sample median of 26.3%. This project-level variation is based on a number of factors, including the strength of the solar resource at the project site, whether the array is mounted at a fixed-tilt or on a tracking mechanism, the inverter loading ratio, degradation, and curtailment. Changes in at least the first three of these factors drove mean capacity factors higher from 2010- to 2013-vintage projects, where they’ve remained fairly steady among both 2014- and 2015-vintage projects as an ongoing increase in the prevalence of tracking has been offset by a build-out of lower resource sites. Meanwhile, several of the newer CSP projects in the United States are struggling to match long-term performance expectations. PPA Prices: Driven by lower installed project prices and improving capacity factors, levelized PPA prices for utility-scale PV have fallen dramatically over time. Most recent PPAs in our sample are priced at or below $50/MWh levelized, with a few priced as aggressively as ~$30/MWh. Though impressive in pace and scale, these falling PPA prices have been offset to some degree by declining wholesale market value within high penetration markets like California, where in 2016 a MWh of solar generation was worth just 83% of a MWh of flat, round-the-clock generation. At the end of 2016, there were at least 121.4 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation. The growth within these queues is widely distributed across all regions of the country: California and the Southeast each account for 23% of the 83.3 GW of solar that first entered the queues in 2016, followed by the Northeast (17%), the Southwest (16%), the Central region (12%), Texas (6%) and the Northwest (3%). The widening geographic distribution of solar projects is a clear sign that the utility-scale market is maturing and expanding outside of its traditional high-insolation comfort zones.« less

Associations between bride price stress and intimate partner violence amongst pregnant women in Timor-Leste.

PubMed

Rees, Susan; Mohsin, Mohammed; Tay, Alvin Kuowei; Soares, Elisa; Tam, Natalino; da Costa, Zelia; Tol, Wietse; Silove, Derrick

2017-08-28

Reducing violence against women is a global public health priority, particularly in low-income and conflict-affected societies. However, more needs to be known about the causes of intimate partner violence (IPV) in these settings, including the stress of bride price obligations. The representative study of women attending ante-natal clinics in Dili, Timor-Leste was conducted between June, 2013 and September, 2014 with 1672 pregnant women, a response rate of 96%. We applied contextually developed measures for the stress of bride price and poverty, and the World Health Organisation measure for intimate partner violence. Compared to those with no problems with bride price, women with moderate or serious problems with that custom reported higher rates of IPV (18.0% vs. 43.6%). Adjusting for socio-demographic factors, multivariate analysis revealed that ongoing poverty (OR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.20-2.56) was significantly associated with IPV. Importantly, the strongest association with IPV was problems with bride price (OR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.86-4.01). This is the first large consecutively sampled study to demonstrate a strong association between the stressors of bride price and poverty with IPV. Notably, bride price stress had the strongest association with IPV. Revealing this hitherto unrecognized factor of bride price stress may prove pivotal in guiding policy and interventions aimed at reducing IPV, and thereby improve the health and psychosocial status of women in low income and conflict-affected settings.

Econophysics: Master curve for price-impact function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lillo, Fabrizio; Farmer, J. Doyne; Mantegna, Rosario N.

2003-01-01

The price reaction to a single transaction depends on transaction volume, the identity of the stock, and possibly many other factors. Here we show that, by taking into account the differences in liquidity for stocks of different size classes of market capitalization, we can rescale both the average price shift and the transaction volume to obtain a uniform price-impact curve for all size classes of firm for four different years (1995-98). This single-curve collapse of the price-impact function suggests that fluctuations from the supply-and-demand equilibrium for many financial assets, differing in economic sectors of activity and market capitalization, are governed by the same statistical rule.

Price and welfare effects of a pharmaceutical substitution reform.

PubMed

Granlund, David

2010-12-01

The price effects of the Swedish pharmaceutical substitution reform are analyzed using data for a panel of all pharmaceutical product sold in Sweden in 1997-2007. The price reduction due to the reform was estimated to average 10% and was found to be significantly larger for brand-name pharmaceuticals than for generics. The results also imply that the reform amplified the effect that generic entry has on brand-name prices by a factor of 10. Results of a demand estimation imply that the price reductions increased total pharmaceutical consumption by 8% and consumer welfare by SEK 2.7 billion annually. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sparse Bayesian Learning for Nonstationary Data Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujimaki, Ryohei; Yairi, Takehisa; Machida, Kazuo

This paper proposes an online Sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL) algorithm for modeling nonstationary data sources. Although most learning algorithms implicitly assume that a data source does not change over time (stationary), one in the real world usually does due to such various factors as dynamically changing environments, device degradation, sudden failures, etc (nonstationary). The proposed algorithm can be made useable for stationary online SBL by setting time decay parameters to zero, and as such it can be interpreted as a single unified framework for online SBL for use with stationary and nonstationary data sources. Tests both on four types of benchmark problems and on actual stock price data have shown it to perform well.

Smoking Behavior among Jordanians: Physical, Psychological, Social, and Economic Reasons.

PubMed

Sweis, Nadia J

2018-03-12

To highlight the physical, psychological, social, and economic reasons related to sex differences in smoking behaviors in Jordan. A cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey was conducted among Jordanian adult smokers. Sex was a significant predictor of physical reasons related to smoking; when controlling for other factors (t 765 = 5.027; P < 0.001), women were more affected by physical factors than were men. In addition, work status was a significant predictor of physical reasons (t 765 = -2.563; P = 0.011), as was the price of cigarettes (t 765 = 2.224; P = 0.026). Age was a significant predictor of psychological reasons (t 765 = -3.092; P = 0.002): younger individuals were more likely to state psychological factors as their reason for smoking than were older individuals. Conversely, sex was a significant predictor (t 765 = 2.798; P = 0.005) of social reasons for smoking, with more men than women reporting social motivations. Women were more likely to smoke for physical factors that are positively correlated with the price of cigarettes, rendering them less responsive to an increase in the price of cigarettes. Conversely, men were more likely to smoke for social reasons that are negatively correlated with the price of cigarettes; thus, men are more responsive to an increase in the price of cigarettes. Future public policies aiming to combat smoking in Jordan should consider sex differences in smoking behavior because one policy may not necessarily fit all. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Drivers of Live Cattle Price in the Livestock Trading System of Central Cameroon

PubMed Central

Motta, Paolo; Handel, Ian G.; Rydevik, Gustaf; Hamman, Saidou M.; Ngwa, Victor Ngu; Tanya, Vincent N.; Morgan, Kenton L.; Bronsvoort, Barend M. deC.; Porphyre, Thibaud

2018-01-01

Livestock production and trade are critical for the food security and welfare of rural households in sub-Saharan Africa. In Cameroon, animal trade consists mainly of live cattle commercialized through livestock markets. Identifying the factors contributing to cattle price formation is critical for designing effective policies for sustainable production and for increasing food availability. In this study, we evaluated the influence of a range of individual- and market-level factors on the price of cattle that were sold in all transactions (n = 118,017) recorded over a 12-month period from 31 livestock markets in the main cattle production area of the country. An information-theoretic approach using a generalized additive mixed-effect model was implemented to select the best explanatory model as well as evaluate the robustness of the identified drivers and the predictive ability of the model. The age and gender of the cattle traded were consistently found to be important drivers of the price (p < 0.01). Also, strong, but complex, relationships were found between cattle prices and both local human and bovine population densities. Finally, the model highlighted a positive association between the number of incoming trading connections of a livestock market and the price of the traded live cattle (p < 0.01). Although our analysis did not account for factors informing on specific phenotypic traits nor breed characteristics of cattle traded, nearly 50% of the observed variation in live cattle prices was explained by the final model. Ultimately, our model gives a large scale overview of drivers of cattle price formation in Cameroon and to our knowledge is the first study of this scale in Central Africa. Our findings represent an important milestone in designing efficient and sustainable animal health management programme in Cameroon and ensure livelihood sustainability for rural households. PMID:29387687

Drivers of Live Cattle Price in the Livestock Trading System of Central Cameroon.

PubMed

Motta, Paolo; Handel, Ian G; Rydevik, Gustaf; Hamman, Saidou M; Ngwa, Victor Ngu; Tanya, Vincent N; Morgan, Kenton L; Bronsvoort, Barend M deC; Porphyre, Thibaud

2017-01-01

Livestock production and trade are critical for the food security and welfare of rural households in sub-Saharan Africa. In Cameroon, animal trade consists mainly of live cattle commercialized through livestock markets. Identifying the factors contributing to cattle price formation is critical for designing effective policies for sustainable production and for increasing food availability. In this study, we evaluated the influence of a range of individual- and market-level factors on the price of cattle that were sold in all transactions ( n  = 118,017) recorded over a 12-month period from 31 livestock markets in the main cattle production area of the country. An information-theoretic approach using a generalized additive mixed-effect model was implemented to select the best explanatory model as well as evaluate the robustness of the identified drivers and the predictive ability of the model. The age and gender of the cattle traded were consistently found to be important drivers of the price ( p  < 0.01). Also, strong, but complex, relationships were found between cattle prices and both local human and bovine population densities. Finally, the model highlighted a positive association between the number of incoming trading connections of a livestock market and the price of the traded live cattle ( p  < 0.01). Although our analysis did not account for factors informing on specific phenotypic traits nor breed characteristics of cattle traded, nearly 50% of the observed variation in live cattle prices was explained by the final model. Ultimately, our model gives a large scale overview of drivers of cattle price formation in Cameroon and to our knowledge is the first study of this scale in Central Africa. Our findings represent an important milestone in designing efficient and sustainable animal health management programme in Cameroon and ensure livelihood sustainability for rural households.

Consumer food choices: the role of price and pricing strategies.

PubMed

Steenhuis, Ingrid H M; Waterlander, Wilma E; de Mul, Anika

2011-12-01

To study differences in the role of price and value in food choice between low-income and higher-income consumers and to study the perception of consumers about pricing strategies that are of relevance during grocery shopping. A cross-sectional study was conducted using structured, written questionnaires. Food choice motives as well as price perceptions and opinion on pricing strategies were measured. The study was carried out in point-of-purchase settings, i.e. supermarkets, fast-food restaurants and sports canteens. Adults (n 159) visiting a point-of-purchase setting were included. Price is an important factor in food choice, especially for low-income consumers. Low-income consumers were significantly more conscious of value and price than higher-income consumers. The most attractive strategies, according to the consumers, were discounting healthy food more often and applying a lower VAT (Value Added Tax) rate on healthy food. Low-income consumers differ in their preferences for pricing strategies. Since price is more important for low-income consumers we recommend mainly focusing on their preferences and needs.

A price and use comparison of generic versus originator cardiovascular medicines: a hospital study in Chongqing, China

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Developed countries use generic competition to contain pharmaceutical expenditure. China, as a developing and transitional country, has not yet deemed an increase in the use of generic products as important; otherwise, much effort has been made to decrease the drug prices. This paper aims to explore dynamically the price and use comparison of generic and originator drugs in China, and estimate the potential savings of patients from switching originator drugs to generics. Methods A typical hospital in Chongqing, China, was selected to examine the price and use comparisons of 12 cardiovascular drugs from 2006 to 2011. Results The market share of the 12 generic medicines studied in this paper was 34.37% for volume and 31.33% for value in the second half of 2011. The price ratio of generic to originator drugs was between 0.34 and 0.98, and the volume price index of originators to generics was 1.63. The potential savings of patients from switching originator drugs to generics is 65%. Conclusion The market share of the generics was lowering and the weighted mean price kept increasing in face of the strict price control. Under the background of hospitals both prescribing and dispensing medicines, China’s comprehensive healthcare policy makers should take measures from supply and demand sides to promote the consumption of generic medicines. PMID:24093493

The Price-Concentration Relationship in Early Residential Solar Third-Party Markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pless, Jacquelyn; Langheim, Ria; Machak, Christina

The market for residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States has experienced tremendous growth over the past decade, with installed capacity more than doubling between 2014 and 2016 alone (SEIA, 2016). As the residential market continues to grow, it prompts new questions about the nature of competition between solar installers and how this competition, or lack thereof, affects the prices consumers are paying. It is often assumed that more competition leads to lower prices, but this is not universally true. For example, some studies have shown that factors such as brand loyalty could lead to a negative relationshipmore » between concentration and price in imperfectly competitive markets (Borenstein, 1985; Holmes, 1989). As such, the relationship between prices and market concentration is an open empirical question since theory could predict either a positive or negative relationship. Determining a relationship between prices and market concentration is challenging for several reasons. Most significantly, prices and market structure are simultaneously determined by each other -- the amount of competition a seller faces influences the price they can command, and prices determine a seller's market share. Previous studies have examined recent PV pricing trends over time and between markets (Davidson et al., 2015a; Davidson and Margolis 2015b; Nemet et al., 2016; Gillingham et al., 2014; Barbose and Darghouth 2015). While these studies of solar PV pricing are able to determine correlations between prices and market factors, they have not satisfactorily proven causation. Thus, to the best of our knowledge, there is little work to date that focuses on identifying the causal relationship between market structure and the prices paid by consumers. We use a unique dataset on third-party owned contract terms for the residential solar PV market in the San Diego Gas and Electricity service territory to better understand this relationship. Surprisingly, we find that firms charged higher prices in more competitive markets in our sample. The finding is robust across multiple definitions of firm concentration. There are at least two potential explanations for our findings. First, firms could be conducting entry deterrence strategies. It is possible that firms are acting in a non-competitive way and setting prices lower than they would be otherwise. Setting low prices that are below potential competitors' marginal costs could deter entrants and ensure a larger market share. Second, there could be a group of dominant firms (with a competitive fringe), and the dominant firms may occasionally engage in price wars. If this is true, prices should be lower in more concentrated markets during the price wars (Salinger, 1990). As the rooftop PV market continues to grow, market structure will remain a relevant policy issue in consideration of the potential for rooftop solar to contribute to de-carbonization efforts or other policy objectives. This paper adds to a growing emphasis on understanding supply-side factors in scaling up solar markets in the residential sector. Generally, solar markets have become more competitive over the same time period that solar technology costs decreased. While solar system hard costs have come down, our research suggests that total costs are more nuanced in early solar system TPO markets. Policymakers should consider these findings when designing markets, and have the data needed to make informed decisions.« less

48 CFR 1415.404-4 - Profit.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... CONTRACT TYPES CONTRACTING BY NEGOTIATION Contract Pricing 1415.404-4 Profit. (a) DOI's policy is to use a... also refer to the Armed Services Pricing Manual (ASPM No. 1). The “Other Costs” factor shall include...

Complex dynamics of a MC-MS pricing model for a risk-averse supply chain with after-sale investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Junhai; Sun, Lijian

2015-09-01

In this paper, we investigate the pricing strategy of the manufacturers and that of a common retailer, including their after-sale investment in a risk-averse supply chain. As the demand is not always for sure, the supply chain follows Manufacturers Cooperating (MC) and Manufacturers Stackelberg (MS). The main objective of the paper is to investigate the influence of the decision parameters such as the after-sale investment, wholesale price adjustment speed and risk preference on the stability and utilities of the risk-averse supply chain. The dynamic phenomena, such as the bifurcation, chaos and sensitivity to initial values are analyzed with 2D-bifurcation diagrams, double largest Lyapunov exponent and basins of attraction. The study shows that the faster the adjustment speed is, the more profits the retailer can make, but on the other hand, it is no good to manufacturers. Risk tolerance levels (RM and RR) affect the utility of the manufacturers and that of the retailer differently. A feedback control method is used to control the chaos in the supply chain.

On the integration of financial markets: How strong is the evidence from five international stock markets?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentes, Sónia R.

2015-07-01

This paper examines the integration of financial markets using data from five international stock markets in the context of globalization. The theoretical basis of this study relies on the price theory and the Law of One Price, which was adjusted to the framework of financial markets. When price levels are nonstationary, cointegration and the error correction model constitute a powerful tool for the empirical examination of market integration. The error correction model provides a fully dynamic framework that allows to separating the long and the short run effects of the integration process. A dataset encompassing the daily stock price series of the PSI 20 (Portugal), IBEX 35 (Spain), FTSE 100 (UK), NIKKEI 225 (Japan) and SP 500 (US) indices from January 4th 1999 to September 19th 2014 is employed. The results highlight that these five stock markets are linked together by just one long-run relationship, although short-run movements are also present, which causes distinct deviations from the long-run equilibrium relationship. Endogeneity prevails in the system as a whole. While market integration in the sense of the Law of One Price holds, pairwise full price transmission has limited evidence. The results therefore show that stock market price movements are highly nonlinear and complex.

Nutrition, fertility and steady-state population dynamics in a pre-industrial community in Penrith, northern England.

PubMed

Scott, S; Duncan, C J

1999-10-01

The effect of nutrition on fertility and its contribution thereby to population dynamics are assessed in three social groups (elite, tradesmen and subsistence) in a marginal, pre-industrial population in northern England. This community was particularly susceptible to fluctuations in the price of grains, which formed their basic foodstuff. The subsistence class, who formed the largest part of the population, had low levels of fertility and small family sizes, but women from all social groups had a characteristic and marked subfecundity in the early part of their reproductive lives. The health and nutrition of the mother during pregnancy was the most important factor in determining fertility and neonatal mortality. Inadequate nutrition had many subtle effects on reproduction which interacted to produce a complex web of events. A population boom occurred during the second half of the 18th century; fertility did not change but there was a marked improvement in infant mortality and it is suggested that the steadily improving nutritional standards of the population, particularly during crucial periods in pregnancy (i.e. the last trimester), probably made the biggest contribution to the improvement in infant mortality and so was probably the major factor in triggering the boom.

Characteristics of Low-Priced Solar Photovoltaic Systems in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nemet, Gregory F.; O'Shaughnessy, Eric; Wiser, Ryan H.

2016-01-01

Despite impressive recent cost reductions, there is wide dispersion in the prices of installed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. We identify the most important factors that make a system likely to be low priced (LP). Our sample consists of detailed characteristics for 42,611 small-scale (< 15 kW) PV systems installed in 15 U.S. states during 2013. Using four definitions of LP systems, we compare LP and non-LP systems and find statistically significant differences in nearly all factors explored, including competition, installer scale, markets, demographics, ownership, policy, and system components. Logit and probit model results robustly indicate that LP systems are associatedmore » with markets with few active installers; experienced installers; customer ownership; large systems; retrofits; and thin-film, low-efficiency, and Chinese modules. We also find significant differences across states, with LP systems much more likely to occur in some than in others. Our focus on the left tail of the price distribution provides implications for policy that are distinct from recent studies of mean prices. While those studies find that PV subsidies increase mean prices, we find that subsidies also generate LP systems. PV subsidies appear to simultaneously shift and broaden the price distribution. Much of this broadening occurs in a particular location, northern California, which is worthy of further investigation with new data.« less

An analysis of volumes, prices and pricing trends of the pediatric antiretroviral market in developing countries from 2004 to 2012.

PubMed

Lee, Janice Soo Fern; Sagaon Teyssier, Luis; Dongmo Nguimfack, Boniface; Collins, Intira Jeannie; Lallemant, Marc; Perriens, Joseph; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2016-03-15

The pediatric antiretroviral (ARV) market is poorly described in the literature, resulting in gaps in understanding treatment access. We analyzed the pediatric ARV market from 2004 to 2012 and assessed pricing trends and associated factors. Data on donor funded procurements of pediatric ARV formulations reported to the Global Price Reporting Mechanism database from 2004 to 2012 were analyzed. Outcomes of interest were the volume and mean price per patient-year ARV formulation based on WHO ARV dosing recommendations for a 10 kg child. Factors associated with the price of formulations were assessed using linear regression; potential predictors included: country income classification, geographical region, market segment (originator versus generic ARVs), and number of manufacturers per formulation. All analyses were adjusted for type of formulations (single, dual or triple fixed-dose combinations (FDCs)) Data from 111 countries from 2004 to 2012 were included, with procurement of 33 formulations at a total value of USD 204 million. Use of dual and triple FDC formulations increased substantially over time, but with limited changes in price. Upon multivariate analysis, prices of originator formulations were found to be on average 72 % higher than generics (p < 0.001). A 10 % increase in procurement volume was associated with a 1 % decrease (p < 0.001) in both originator and generic prices. The entry of one additional manufacturer producing a formulation was associated with a decrease in prices of 2 % (p < 0.001) and 8 % (p < 0.001) for originator and generic formulations, respectively. The mean generic ARV price did not differ by country income level. Prices of originator ARVs were 48 % (p < 0.001) and 14 % (p < 0.001) higher in upper-middle income and lower-middle income countries compared to low income countries respectively, with the exception of South Africa, which had lower prices despite being an upper-middle income country. The donor funded pediatric ARV market as represented by the GPRM database is small, and lacks price competition. It is dominated by generic drugs due to the lower prices offered and the practicality of FDC formulations. This market requires continued donor support and the current initiatives to protect it are important to ensure market viability, especially if new formulations are to be introduced in the future.

Chinese Cultural Dynamics and Childhood: Towards a New Individuality for Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhao, Guoping

2010-01-01

This paper explores, through the lens of childhood, the Chinese cultural dynamics that encourage harmonious human relationships at the price of individual development and yet support a deep appreciation of natural human experiences that allows room for the development of individuality. The purpose of such investigation is to reexamine our cultural…

Suggested Courseware for the Non-Calculus Physics Student: Projectile Motion, Circular Motion, Rotational Dynamics, and Statics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mahoney, Joyce; And Others

1988-01-01

Evaluates 10 courseware packages covering topics for introductory physics. Discusses the price; sub-topics; program type; interaction; possible hardware; time; calculus required; graphics; and comments on each program. Recommends two packages in projectile and circular motion, and three packages in statics and rotational dynamics. (YP)

75 FR 35786 - White River Minimum Flows-Addendum to Final Determination of Federal and Non-Federal Hydropower...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-23

... to the energy prices it is using to value the Ozark Beach hydroelectric facility lost energy. This... the market price of energy is approximately $10 per MWh factored up to $12.50 per MWh for the loss of... energy prices to account for the lost RECs, and should increase this to $38.50 per MWh if the Federal...

Factors that Influence the Price of Al, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, Rare Earth Elements, and Zn

USGS Publications Warehouse

Papp, John F.; Bray, E. Lee; Edelstein, Daniel L.; Fenton, Michael D.; Guberman, David E.; Hedrick, James B.; Jorgenson, John D.; Kuck, Peter H.; Shedd, Kim B.; Tolcin, Amy C.

2008-01-01

This report is based on a presentation delivered at The 12th International Battery Materials Recycling Seminar, March 17-20, 2008, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., about the factors that influence prices for aluminum, cadmium, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, nickel, rare earth elements, and zinc. These are a diverse group of metals that are of interest to the battery recycling industry. Because the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) closely monitors, yet neither buys nor sells, metal commodities, it is an unbiased source of metal price information and analysis. The authors used information about these and other metals collected and published by the USGS (U.S. production, trade, stocks, and prices and world production) and internationally (consumption and stocks by country) from industry organizations, because metal markets are influenced by activities and events over the entire globe. Long-term prices in this report, represented by unit values, were adjusted to 1998 constant dollars to remove the effects of inflation. A previous USGS study in this subject area was 'Economic Drivers of Mineral Supply' by Lorie A. Wagner, Daniel E. Sullivan, and John L. Sznopek (USGS Open File Report 02-335). By seeking a common cause for common behavior of prices among the various metal commodities, the authors found that major factors that influence prices of metal commodities were international events such as wars and recessions, and national events such as the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and economic growth in China, which started its open door policy in the 1970s but did not have significant market impact until the 1990s. Metal commodity prices also responded to commodity-specific events such as tariff or usage changes or mine strikes. It is shown that the prices of aluminum, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, nickel, and zinc are at historic highs, that world stocks are at (or near) historic lows, and that China's consumption of these metals had increased substantially, making it the world's leading consumer of these metals.

A price mechanism for supply demand matching in local grid of households with micro-CHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, G. K. H.; van Foreest, N. D.; Scherpen, J. M. A.

2012-10-01

This paper describes a dynamic price mechanism to coordinate eletric power generation from micro Combined Heat and Power (micro-CHP) systems in a network of households. It is assumed that the households are prosumers, i.e. both producers and consumers of electricity. The control is done on household level in a completely distributed manner. Avoiding a centralized controller both eases computation complexity and preserves communication structure in the network. Local information is used to decide to turn on or off the micro-CHP, but through price signals between the prosumers the network as a whole operates in a cooperative way.

Crude oil price analysis and forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and independent component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E, Jianwei; Bao, Yanling; Ye, Jimin

2017-10-01

As one of the most vital energy resources in the world, crude oil plays a significant role in international economic market. The fluctuation of crude oil price has attracted academic and commercial attention. There exist many methods in forecasting the trend of crude oil price. However, traditional models failed in predicting accurately. Based on this, a hybrid method will be proposed in this paper, which combines variational mode decomposition (VMD), independent component analysis (ICA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), called VMD-ICA-ARIMA. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence factors of crude oil price and predict the future crude oil price. Major steps can be concluded as follows: Firstly, applying the VMD model on the original signal (crude oil price), the modes function can be decomposed adaptively. Secondly, independent components are separated by the ICA, and how the independent components affect the crude oil price is analyzed. Finally, forecasting the price of crude oil price by the ARIMA model, the forecasting trend demonstrates that crude oil price declines periodically. Comparing with benchmark ARIMA and EEMD-ICA-ARIMA, VMD-ICA-ARIMA can forecast the crude oil price more accurately.

Trends in highway construction costs in Louisiana.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-09-01

The objective of this research was to identify and quantify the factors that influence the price of highway construction in Louisiana. The method of investigation involved a literature review and an analysis of construction price records in Louisiana...

Pricing by timing: innovating broadband data plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Sangtae; Joe-Wong, Carlee; Sen, Soumya; Chiang, Mung

2012-01-01

Wireless Internet usage is doubling every year. Users are using more of high bandwidth data applications, and the heavy usage concentrates on several peak hours in a day, forcing ISPs to overprovision their networks accordingly. In order to remain profitable, ISPs have been using pricing as a congestion management tool. We review many of such pricing schemes in practice today and argue that they do not solve ISPs' problem of growing data traffic. We believe that dynamic, time-dependent usage pricing, which charges users based on when they access the Internet, can incentivize users to spread out their bandwidth consumption more evenly across different times of the day, thus helping ISPs to overcome the problem of peak congestion. Congestion pricing is not a new idea in itself, but the time for its implementation in data networks has finally arrived. Our key contribution lies in developing new analysis and a fully integrated system architecture, called TUBE (Time-dependent Usage-based Broadband price Engineering) that enables ISPs to implement the proposed TDP plan. The theory, simulation, and system implementation of TUBE system is further complemented with consumer surveys conducted in India and the US, along with preparations for a field trial that is currently underway.

Pricing timer options and variance derivatives with closed-form partial transform under the 3/2 model

PubMed Central

Zheng, Wendong; Zeng, Pingping

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Most of the empirical studies on stochastic volatility dynamics favour the 3/2 specification over the square-root (CIR) process in the Heston model. In the context of option pricing, the 3/2 stochastic volatility model (SVM) is reported to be able to capture the volatility skew evolution better than the Heston model. In this article, we make a thorough investigation on the analytic tractability of the 3/2 SVM by proposing a closed-form formula for the partial transform of the triple joint transition density which stand for the log asset price, the quadratic variation (continuous realized variance) and the instantaneous variance, respectively. Two distinct formulations are provided for deriving the main result. The closed-form partial transform enables us to deduce a variety of marginal partial transforms and characteristic functions and plays a crucial role in pricing discretely sampled variance derivatives and exotic options that depend on both the asset price and quadratic variation. Various applications and numerical examples on pricing moment swaps and timer options with discrete monitoring feature are given to demonstrate the versatility of the partial transform under the 3/2 model. PMID:28706460

Value analysis for advanced technology products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soulliere, Mark

2011-03-01

Technology by itself can be wondrous, but buyers of technology factor in the price they have to pay along with performance in their decisions. As a result, the ``best'' technology may not always win in the marketplace when ``good enough'' can be had at a lower price. Technology vendors often set pricing by ``cost plus margin,'' or by competitors' offerings. What if the product is new (or has yet to be invented)? Value pricing is a methodology to price products based on the value generated (e.g. money saved) by using one product vs. the next best technical alternative. Value analysis can often clarify what product attributes generate the most value. It can also assist in identifying market forces outside of the control of the technology vendor that also influence pricing. These principles are illustrated with examples.

Anchoring effect on first passage process in Taiwan financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hsing; Liao, Chi-Yo; Ko, Jing-Yuan; Lih, Jiann-Shing

2017-07-01

Empirical analysis of the price fluctuations of financial markets has received extensive attention because a substantial amount of financial market data has been collected and because of advances in data-mining techniques. Price fluctuation trends can help investors to make informed trading decisions, but such decisions may also be affected by a psychological factors-the anchoring effect. This study explores the intraday price time series of Taiwan futures, and applies diffusion model and quantitative methods to analyze the relationship between the anchoring effect and price fluctuations during first passage process. Our results indicate that power-law scaling and anomalous diffusion for stock price fluctuations are related to the anchoring effect. Moreover, microscopic price fluctuations before switching point in first passage process correspond with long-term price fluctuations of Taiwan's stock market. We find that microscopic trends could provide useful information for understanding macroscopic trends in stock markets.

Differential pricing of new pharmaceuticals in lower income European countries.

PubMed

Kaló, Zoltán; Annemans, Lieven; Garrison, Louis P

2013-12-01

Pharmaceutical companies adjust the pricing strategy of innovative medicines to the imperatives of their major markets. The ability of payers to influence the ex-factory price of new drugs depends on country population size and income per capita, among other factors. Differential pricing based on Ramsey principles is a 'second-best' solution to correct the imperfections of the global market for innovative pharmaceuticals, and it is also consistent with standard norms of equity. This analysis summarizes the boundaries of differential pharmaceutical pricing for policymakers, payers and other stakeholders in lower-income countries, with special focus on Central-Eastern Europe, and describes the feasibility and implications of potential solutions to ensure lower pharmaceutical prices as compared to higher-income countries. European stakeholders, especially in Central-Eastern Europe and at the EU level, should understand the implications of increased transparency of pricing and should develop solutions to prevent the limited accessibility of new medicines in lower-income countries.

Modeling Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index Using Time Series Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayo, W. S.; Urrutia, J. D.; Temple, J. M. F.; Sandoval, J. R. D.; Sanglay, J. E. A.

2015-06-01

This study was conducted to develop a time series model of the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index and its volatility using the finite mixture of ARIMA model with conditional variance equations such as ARCH, GARCH, EG ARCH, TARCH and PARCH models. Also, the study aimed to find out the reason behind the behaviorof PSEi, that is, which of the economic variables - Consumer Price Index, crude oil price, foreign exchange rate, gold price, interest rate, money supply, price-earnings ratio, Producers’ Price Index and terms of trade - can be used in projecting future values of PSEi and this was examined using Granger Causality Test. The findings showed that the best time series model for Philippine Stock Exchange Composite index is ARIMA(1,1,5) - ARCH(1). Also, Consumer Price Index, crude oil price and foreign exchange rate are factors concluded to Granger cause Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index.

Examining the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brannan, Michael James

Estimating the consumer demand response to changes in the price of gasoline has important implications regarding fuel tax policies and environmental concerns. There are reasons to believe that the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand fluctuates due to changing structural and behavioral factors. In this paper I estimate the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand in two time periods, from 2001 to 2006 and from 2007 to 2010. This study utilizes data at both the national and state levels to produce estimates. The short-run price elasticities range from -0.034 to -0.047 during 2001 to 2006, compared to -0.058 to -0.077 in the 2007 to 2010 period. This paper also examines whether there are regional differences in the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand in the United States. However, there appears to only be modest variation in price elasticity values across regions.

Simulated Models Suggest That Price per Calorie Is the Dominant Price Metric That Low-Income Individuals Use for Food Decision Making123

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background: The price of food has long been considered one of the major factors that affects food choices. However, the price metric (e.g., the price of food per calorie or the price of food per gram) that individuals predominantly use when making food choices is unclear. Understanding which price metric is used is especially important for studying individuals with severe budget constraints because food price then becomes even more important in food choice. Objective: We assessed which price metric is used by low-income individuals in deciding what to eat. Methods: With the use of data from NHANES and the USDA Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies, we created an agent-based model that simulated an environment representing the US population, wherein individuals were modeled as agents with a specific weight, age, and income. In our model, agents made dietary food choices while meeting their budget limits with the use of 1 of 3 different metrics for decision making: energy cost (price per calorie), unit price (price per gram), and serving price (price per serving). The food consumption patterns generated by our model were compared to 3 independent data sets. Results: The food choice behaviors observed in 2 of the data sets were found to be closest to the simulated dietary patterns generated by the price per calorie metric. The behaviors observed in the third data set were equidistant from the patterns generated by price per calorie and price per serving metrics, whereas results generated by the price per gram metric were further away. Conclusions: Our simulations suggest that dietary food choice based on price per calorie best matches actual consumption patterns and may therefore be the most salient price metric for low-income populations. PMID:27655757

Simulated Models Suggest That Price per Calorie Is the Dominant Price Metric That Low-Income Individuals Use for Food Decision Making.

PubMed

Beheshti, Rahmatollah; Igusa, Takeru; Jones-Smith, Jessica

2016-11-01

The price of food has long been considered one of the major factors that affects food choices. However, the price metric (e.g., the price of food per calorie or the price of food per gram) that individuals predominantly use when making food choices is unclear. Understanding which price metric is used is especially important for studying individuals with severe budget constraints because food price then becomes even more important in food choice. We assessed which price metric is used by low-income individuals in deciding what to eat. With the use of data from NHANES and the USDA Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies, we created an agent-based model that simulated an environment representing the US population, wherein individuals were modeled as agents with a specific weight, age, and income. In our model, agents made dietary food choices while meeting their budget limits with the use of 1 of 3 different metrics for decision making: energy cost (price per calorie), unit price (price per gram), and serving price (price per serving). The food consumption patterns generated by our model were compared to 3 independent data sets. The food choice behaviors observed in 2 of the data sets were found to be closest to the simulated dietary patterns generated by the price per calorie metric. The behaviors observed in the third data set were equidistant from the patterns generated by price per calorie and price per serving metrics, whereas results generated by the price per gram metric were further away. Our simulations suggest that dietary food choice based on price per calorie best matches actual consumption patterns and may therefore be the most salient price metric for low-income populations. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

The demand for distilled spirits: an empirical investigation.

PubMed

McCornac, D C; Filante, R W

1984-03-01

Economic and social factors that explain variations in the consumption of distilled spirits among political jurisdictions are examined. Particular emphasis is placed on the economic roles of price and the unemployment rate. Using multivariate-analysis regression, equations are estimated for three separate time periods of 1970-1975. In addition, a pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis is undertaken for the entire time period. The dependent variable is the apparent per capita consumption of distilled spirits. The independent variables include price, availability and socioeconomic factors that determine consumption patterns. The results indicate that the price elasticity of demand for distilled spirits inelastic, and implies that a 1% change in price will result in a less than 1% change in the amount purchased, everything else being equal. A rise in price will increase total revenue. Thus, a tax increase on the commodity will generate an increase in tax revenue. The unemployment rate is shown to have a significant impact on the consumption of distilled spirits. The results suggest that further study into the relationship between unemployment and the consumption of distilled spirits is desirable.

Hierarchical structure of stock price fluctuations in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Ya-Chun; Cai, Shi-Min; Wang, Bing-Hong

2012-12-01

The financial market and turbulence have been broadly compared on account of the same quantitative methods and several common stylized facts they share. In this paper, the She-Leveque (SL) hierarchy, proposed to explain the anomalous scaling exponents deviating from Kolmogorov monofractal scaling of the velocity fluctuation in fluid turbulence, is applied to study and quantify the hierarchical structure of stock price fluctuations in financial markets. We therefore observed certain interesting results: (i) the hierarchical structure related to multifractal scaling generally presents in all the stock price fluctuations we investigated. (ii) The quantitatively statistical parameters that describe SL hierarchy are different between developed financial markets and emerging ones, distinctively. (iii) For the high-frequency stock price fluctuation, the hierarchical structure varies with different time periods. All these results provide a novel analogy in turbulence and financial market dynamics and an insight to deeply understand multifractality in financial markets.

On Market-Based Coordination of Thermostatically Controlled Loads With User Preference

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Sen; Zhang, Wei; Lian, Jianming

2014-12-15

This paper presents a market-based control framework to coordinate a group of autonomous Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL) to achieve the system-level objectives with pricing incentives. The problem is formulated as maximizing the social welfare subject to feeder power constraint. It allows the coordinator to affect the aggregated power of a group of dynamical systems, and creates an interactive market where the users and the coordinator cooperatively determine the optimal energy allocation and energy price. The optimal pricing strategy is derived, which maximizes social welfare while respecting the feeder power constraint. The bidding strategy is also designed to compute the optimalmore » price in real time (e.g., every 5 minutes) based on local device information. The coordination framework is validated with realistic simulations in GridLab-D. Extensive simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively maximizes the social welfare and decreases power congestion at key times.« less

Endogenous Price Bubbles in a Multi-Agent System of the Housing Market

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Economic history shows a large number of boom-bust cycles, with the U.S. real estate market as one of the latest examples. Classical economic models have not been able to provide a full explanation for this type of market dynamics. Therefore, we analyze home prices in the U.S. using an alternative approach, a multi-agent complex system. Instead of the classical assumptions of agent rationality and market efficiency, agents in the model are heterogeneous, adaptive, and boundedly rational. We estimate the multi-agent system with historical house prices for the U.S. market. The model fits the data well and a deterministic version of the model can endogenously produce boom-and-bust cycles on the basis of the estimated coefficients. This implies that trading between agents themselves can create major price swings in absence of fundamental news. PMID:26107740

The mean time-limited crash rate of stock price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yun-Xian; Li, Jiang-Cheng; Yang, Ai-Jun; Tang, Nian-Sheng

2017-05-01

In this article we investigate the occurrence of stock market crash in an economy cycle. Bayesian approach, Heston model and statistical-physical method are considered. Specifically, Heston model and an effective potential are employed to address the dynamic changes of stock price. Bayesian approach has been utilized to estimate the Heston model's unknown parameters. Statistical physical method is used to investigate the occurrence of stock market crash by calculating the mean time-limited crash rate. The real financial data from the Shanghai Composite Index is analyzed with the proposed methods. The mean time-limited crash rate of stock price is used to describe the occurrence of stock market crash in an economy cycle. The monotonous and nonmonotonous behaviors are observed in the behavior of the mean time-limited crash rate versus volatility of stock for various cross correlation coefficient between volatility and price. Also a minimum occurrence of stock market crash matching an optimal volatility is discovered.