Faults Discovery By Using Mined Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Charles

2005-01-01

Fault discovery in the complex systems consist of model based reasoning, fault tree analysis, rule based inference methods, and other approaches. Model based reasoning builds models for the systems either by mathematic formulations or by experiment model. Fault Tree Analysis shows the possible causes of a system malfunction by enumerating the suspect components and their respective failure modes that may have induced the problem. The rule based inference build the model based on the expert knowledge. Those models and methods have one thing in common; they have presumed some prior-conditions. Complex systems often use fault trees to analyze the faults. Fault diagnosis, when error occurs, is performed by engineers and analysts performing extensive examination of all data gathered during the mission. International Space Station (ISS) control center operates on the data feedback from the system and decisions are made based on threshold values by using fault trees. Since those decision-making tasks are safety critical and must be done promptly, the engineers who manually analyze the data are facing time challenge. To automate this process, this paper present an approach that uses decision trees to discover fault from data in real-time and capture the contents of fault trees as the initial state of the trees.

Fault trees and sequence dependencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dugan, Joanne Bechta; Boyd, Mark A.; Bavuso, Salvatore J.

1990-01-01

One of the frequently cited shortcomings of fault-tree models, their inability to model so-called sequence dependencies, is discussed. Several sources of such sequence dependencies are discussed, and new fault-tree gates to capture this behavior are defined. These complex behaviors can be included in present fault-tree models because they utilize a Markov solution. The utility of the new gates is demonstrated by presenting several models of the fault-tolerant parallel processor, which include both hot and cold spares.

Fault Tree Analysis.

PubMed

McElroy, Lisa M; Khorzad, Rebeca; Rowe, Theresa A; Abecassis, Zachary A; Apley, Daniel W; Barnard, Cynthia; Holl, Jane L

The purpose of this study was to use fault tree analysis to evaluate the adequacy of quality reporting programs in identifying root causes of postoperative bloodstream infection (BSI). A systematic review of the literature was used to construct a fault tree to evaluate 3 postoperative BSI reporting programs: National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP), Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), and The Joint Commission (JC). The literature review revealed 699 eligible publications, 90 of which were used to create the fault tree containing 105 faults. A total of 14 identified faults are currently mandated for reporting to NSQIP, 5 to CMS, and 3 to JC; 2 or more programs require 4 identified faults. The fault tree identifies numerous contributing faults to postoperative BSI and reveals substantial variation in the requirements and ability of national quality data reporting programs to capture these potential faults. Efforts to prevent postoperative BSI require more comprehensive data collection to identify the root causes and develop high-reliability improvement strategies.

Mines Systems Safety Improvement Using an Integrated Event Tree and Fault Tree Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Ranjan; Ghosh, Achyuta Krishna

2017-04-01

Mines systems such as ventilation system, strata support system, flame proof safety equipment, are exposed to dynamic operational conditions such as stress, humidity, dust, temperature, etc., and safety improvement of such systems can be done preferably during planning and design stage. However, the existing safety analysis methods do not handle the accident initiation and progression of mine systems explicitly. To bridge this gap, this paper presents an integrated Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) approach for safety analysis and improvement of mine systems design. This approach includes ET and FT modeling coupled with redundancy allocation technique. In this method, a concept of top hazard probability is introduced for identifying system failure probability and redundancy is allocated to the system either at component or system level. A case study on mine methane explosion safety with two initiating events is performed. The results demonstrate that the presented method can reveal the accident scenarios and improve the safety of complex mine systems simultaneously.

Application of Fault Tree Analysis and Fuzzy Neural Networks to Fault Diagnosis in the Internet of Things (IoT) for Aquaculture.

PubMed

Chen, Yingyi; Zhen, Zhumi; Yu, Huihui; Xu, Jing

2017-01-14

In the Internet of Things (IoT) equipment used for aquaculture is often deployed in outdoor ponds located in remote areas. Faults occur frequently in these tough environments and the staff generally lack professional knowledge and pay a low degree of attention in these areas. Once faults happen, expert personnel must carry out maintenance outdoors. Therefore, this study presents an intelligent method for fault diagnosis based on fault tree analysis and a fuzzy neural network. In the proposed method, first, the fault tree presents a logic structure of fault symptoms and faults. Second, rules extracted from the fault trees avoid duplicate and redundancy. Third, the fuzzy neural network is applied to train the relationship mapping between fault symptoms and faults. In the aquaculture IoT, one fault can cause various fault symptoms, and one symptom can be caused by a variety of faults. Four fault relationships are obtained. Results show that one symptom-to-one fault, two symptoms-to-two faults, and two symptoms-to-one fault relationships can be rapidly diagnosed with high precision, while one symptom-to-two faults patterns perform not so well, but are still worth researching. This model implements diagnosis for most kinds of faults in the aquaculture IoT.

Application of Fault Tree Analysis and Fuzzy Neural Networks to Fault Diagnosis in the Internet of Things (IoT) for Aquaculture

PubMed Central

Chen, Yingyi; Zhen, Zhumi; Yu, Huihui; Xu, Jing

2017-01-01

In the Internet of Things (IoT) equipment used for aquaculture is often deployed in outdoor ponds located in remote areas. Faults occur frequently in these tough environments and the staff generally lack professional knowledge and pay a low degree of attention in these areas. Once faults happen, expert personnel must carry out maintenance outdoors. Therefore, this study presents an intelligent method for fault diagnosis based on fault tree analysis and a fuzzy neural network. In the proposed method, first, the fault tree presents a logic structure of fault symptoms and faults. Second, rules extracted from the fault trees avoid duplicate and redundancy. Third, the fuzzy neural network is applied to train the relationship mapping between fault symptoms and faults. In the aquaculture IoT, one fault can cause various fault symptoms, and one symptom can be caused by a variety of faults. Four fault relationships are obtained. Results show that one symptom-to-one fault, two symptoms-to-two faults, and two symptoms-to-one fault relationships can be rapidly diagnosed with high precision, while one symptom-to-two faults patterns perform not so well, but are still worth researching. This model implements diagnosis for most kinds of faults in the aquaculture IoT. PMID:28098822

Reliability computation using fault tree analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chelson, P. O.

1971-01-01

A method is presented for calculating event probabilities from an arbitrary fault tree. The method includes an analytical derivation of the system equation and is not a simulation program. The method can handle systems that incorporate standby redundancy and it uses conditional probabilities for computing fault trees where the same basic failure appears in more than one fault path.

Object-oriented fault tree evaluation program for quantitative analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Koen, B. V.

1988-01-01

Object-oriented programming can be combined with fault free techniques to give a significantly improved environment for evaluating the safety and reliability of large complex systems for space missions. Deep knowledge about system components and interactions, available from reliability studies and other sources, can be described using objects that make up a knowledge base. This knowledge base can be interrogated throughout the design process, during system testing, and during operation, and can be easily modified to reflect design changes in order to maintain a consistent information source. An object-oriented environment for reliability assessment has been developed on a Texas Instrument (TI) Explorer LISP workstation. The program, which directly evaluates system fault trees, utilizes the object-oriented extension to LISP called Flavors that is available on the Explorer. The object representation of a fault tree facilitates the storage and retrieval of information associated with each event in the tree, including tree structural information and intermediate results obtained during the tree reduction process. Reliability data associated with each basic event are stored in the fault tree objects. The object-oriented environment on the Explorer also includes a graphical tree editor which was modified to display and edit the fault trees.

The fault-tree compiler

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martensen, Anna L.; Butler, Ricky W.

1987-01-01

The Fault Tree Compiler Program is a new reliability tool used to predict the top event probability for a fault tree. Five different gate types are allowed in the fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, and M OF N gates. The high level input language is easy to understand and use when describing the system tree. In addition, the use of the hierarchical fault tree capability can simplify the tree description and decrease program execution time. The current solution technique provides an answer precise (within the limits of double precision floating point arithmetic) to the five digits in the answer. The user may vary one failure rate or failure probability over a range of values and plot the results for sensitivity analyses. The solution technique is implemented in FORTRAN; the remaining program code is implemented in Pascal. The program is written to run on a Digital Corporation VAX with the VMS operation system.

The Fault Tree Compiler (FTC): Program and mathematics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Martensen, Anna L.

1989-01-01

The Fault Tree Compiler Program is a new reliability tool used to predict the top-event probability for a fault tree. Five different gate types are allowed in the fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, AND m OF n gates. The high-level input language is easy to understand and use when describing the system tree. In addition, the use of the hierarchical fault tree capability can simplify the tree description and decrease program execution time. The current solution technique provides an answer precisely (within the limits of double precision floating point arithmetic) within a user specified number of digits accuracy. The user may vary one failure rate or failure probability over a range of values and plot the results for sensitivity analyses. The solution technique is implemented in FORTRAN; the remaining program code is implemented in Pascal. The program is written to run on a Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) VAX computer with the VMS operation system.

An overview of the phase-modular fault tree approach to phased mission system analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, L.; Xing, L.; Donohue, S. K.; Ou, Y.

2003-01-01

We look at how fault tree analysis (FTA), a primary means of performing reliability analysis of PMS, can meet this challenge in this paper by presenting an overview of the modular approach to solving fault trees that represent PMS.

Try Fault Tree Analysis, a Step-by-Step Way to Improve Organization Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spitzer, Dean

1980-01-01

Fault Tree Analysis, a systems safety engineering technology used to analyze organizational systems, is described. Explains the use of logic gates to represent the relationship between failure events, qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, and effective use of Fault Tree Analysis. (CT)

Fault Tree Analysis: A Research Tool for Educational Planning. Technical Report No. 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alameda County School Dept., Hayward, CA. PACE Center.

This ESEA Title III report describes fault tree analysis and assesses its applicability to education. Fault tree analysis is an operations research tool which is designed to increase the probability of success in any system by analyzing the most likely modes of failure that could occur. A graphic portrayal, which has the form of a tree, is…

Review: Evaluation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control Using Fault Tree Analysis.

PubMed

Isoda, N; Kadohira, M; Sekiguchi, S; Schuppers, M; Stärk, K D C

2015-06-01

An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) causes huge economic losses and animal welfare problems. Although much can be learnt from past FMD outbreaks, several countries are not satisfied with their degree of contingency planning and aiming at more assurance that their control measures will be effective. The purpose of the present article was to develop a generic fault tree framework for the control of an FMD outbreak as a basis for systematic improvement and refinement of control activities and general preparedness. Fault trees are typically used in engineering to document pathways that can lead to an undesired event, that is, ineffective FMD control. The fault tree method allows risk managers to identify immature parts of the control system and to analyse the events or steps that will most probably delay rapid and effective disease control during a real outbreak. The present developed fault tree is generic and can be tailored to fit the specific needs of countries. For instance, the specific fault tree for the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK was refined based on control weaknesses discussed in peer-reviewed articles. Furthermore, the specific fault tree based on the 2001 outbreak was applied to the subsequent FMD outbreak in 2007 to assess the refinement of control measures following the earlier, major outbreak. The FMD fault tree can assist risk managers to develop more refined and adequate control activities against FMD outbreaks and to find optimum strategies for rapid control. Further application using the current tree will be one of the basic measures for FMD control worldwide. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

The weakest t-norm based intuitionistic fuzzy fault-tree analysis to evaluate system reliability.

PubMed

Kumar, Mohit; Yadav, Shiv Prasad

2012-07-01

In this paper, a new approach of intuitionistic fuzzy fault-tree analysis is proposed to evaluate system reliability and to find the most critical system component that affects the system reliability. Here weakest t-norm based intuitionistic fuzzy fault tree analysis is presented to calculate fault interval of system components from integrating expert's knowledge and experience in terms of providing the possibility of failure of bottom events. It applies fault-tree analysis, α-cut of intuitionistic fuzzy set and T(ω) (the weakest t-norm) based arithmetic operations on triangular intuitionistic fuzzy sets to obtain fault interval and reliability interval of the system. This paper also modifies Tanaka et al.'s fuzzy fault-tree definition. In numerical verification, a malfunction of weapon system "automatic gun" is presented as a numerical example. The result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of reliability analysis methods. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fault tree models for fault tolerant hypercube multiprocessors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyd, Mark A.; Tuazon, Jezus O.

1991-01-01

Three candidate fault tolerant hypercube architectures are modeled, their reliability analyses are compared, and the resulting implications of these methods of incorporating fault tolerance into hypercube multiprocessors are discussed. In the course of performing the reliability analyses, the use of HARP and fault trees in modeling sequence dependent system behaviors is demonstrated.

Comparative analysis of techniques for evaluating the effectiveness of aircraft computing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hitt, E. F.; Bridgman, M. S.; Robinson, A. C.

1981-01-01

Performability analysis is a technique developed for evaluating the effectiveness of fault-tolerant computing systems in multiphase missions. Performability was evaluated for its accuracy, practical usefulness, and relative cost. The evaluation was performed by applying performability and the fault tree method to a set of sample problems ranging from simple to moderately complex. The problems involved as many as five outcomes, two to five mission phases, permanent faults, and some functional dependencies. Transient faults and software errors were not considered. A different analyst was responsible for each technique. Significantly more time and effort were required to learn performability analysis than the fault tree method. Performability is inherently as accurate as fault tree analysis. For the sample problems, fault trees were more practical and less time consuming to apply, while performability required less ingenuity and was more checkable. Performability offers some advantages for evaluating very complex problems.

Product Support Manager Guidebook

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-04-01

package is being developed using supportability analysis concepts such as Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fault Tree Analysis ( FTA ...Analysis (LORA) Condition Based Maintenance + (CBM+) Fault Tree Analysis ( FTA ) Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) Maintenance Task...Reporting and Corrective Action System (FRACAS), Fault Tree Analysis ( FTA ), Level of Repair Analysis (LORA), Maintenance Task Analysis (MTA

MIRAP, microcomputer reliability analysis program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jehee, J.N.T.

1989-01-01

A program for a microcomputer is outlined that can determine minimal cut sets from a specified fault tree logic. The speed and memory limitations of the microcomputers on which the program is implemented (Atari ST and IBM) are addressed by reducing the fault tree's size and by storing the cut set data on disk. Extensive well proven fault tree restructuring techniques, such as the identification of sibling events and of independent gate events, reduces the fault tree's size but does not alter its logic. New methods are used for the Boolean reduction of the fault tree logic. Special criteria formore » combining events in the 'AND' and 'OR' logic avoid the creation of many subsuming cut sets which all would cancel out due to existing cut sets. Figures and tables illustrates these methods. 4 refs., 5 tabs.« less

Sequential Test Strategies for Multiple Fault Isolation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shakeri, M.; Pattipati, Krishna R.; Raghavan, V.; Patterson-Hine, Ann; Kell, T.

1997-01-01

In this paper, we consider the problem of constructing near optimal test sequencing algorithms for diagnosing multiple faults in redundant (fault-tolerant) systems. The computational complexity of solving the optimal multiple-fault isolation problem is super-exponential, that is, it is much more difficult than the single-fault isolation problem, which, by itself, is NP-hard. By employing concepts from information theory and Lagrangian relaxation, we present several static and dynamic (on-line or interactive) test sequencing algorithms for the multiple fault isolation problem that provide a trade-off between the degree of suboptimality and computational complexity. Furthermore, we present novel diagnostic strategies that generate a static diagnostic directed graph (digraph), instead of a static diagnostic tree, for multiple fault diagnosis. Using this approach, the storage complexity of the overall diagnostic strategy reduces substantially. Computational results based on real-world systems indicate that the size of a static multiple fault strategy is strictly related to the structure of the system, and that the use of an on-line multiple fault strategy can diagnose faults in systems with as many as 10,000 failure sources.

The FTA Method And A Possibility Of Its Application In The Area Of Road Freight Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poliaková, Adela

2015-06-01

The Fault Tree process utilizes logic diagrams to portray and analyse potentially hazardous events. Three basic symbols (logic gates) are adequate for diagramming any fault tree. However, additional recently developed symbols can be used to reduce the time and effort required for analysis. A fault tree is a graphical representation of the relationship between certain specific events and the ultimate undesired event (2). This paper deals to method of Fault Tree Analysis basic description and provides a practical view on possibility of application by quality improvement in road freight transport company.

Fault Tree Analysis: Its Implications for Use in Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barker, Bruce O.

This study introduces the concept of Fault Tree Analysis as a systems tool and examines the implications of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a technique for isolating failure modes in educational systems. A definition of FTA and discussion of its history, as it relates to education, are provided. The step by step process for implementation and use of…

Preventing medical errors by designing benign failures.

PubMed

Grout, John R

2003-07-01

One way to successfully reduce medical errors is to design health care systems that are more resistant to the tendencies of human beings to err. One interdisciplinary approach entails creating design changes, mitigating human errors, and making human error irrelevant to outcomes. This approach is intended to facilitate the creation of benign failures, which have been called mistake-proofing devices and forcing functions elsewhere. USING FAULT TREES TO DESIGN FORCING FUNCTIONS: A fault tree is a graphical tool used to understand the relationships that either directly cause or contribute to the cause of a particular failure. A careful analysis of a fault tree enables the analyst to anticipate how the process will behave after the change. EXAMPLE OF AN APPLICATION: A scenario in which a patient is scalded while bathing can serve as an example of how multiple fault trees can be used to design forcing functions. The first fault tree shows the undesirable event--patient scalded while bathing. The second fault tree has a benign event--no water. Adding a scald valve changes the outcome from the undesirable event ("patient scalded while bathing") to the benign event ("no water") Analysis of fault trees does not ensure or guarantee that changes necessary to eliminate error actually occur. Most mistake-proofing is used to prevent simple errors and to create well-defended processes, but complex errors can also result. The utilization of mistake-proofing or forcing functions can be thought of as changing the logic of a process. Errors that formerly caused undesirable failures can be converted into the causes of benign failures. The use of fault trees can provide a variety of insights into the design of forcing functions that will improve patient safety.

Fault Tree Analysis Application for Safety and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallace, Dolores R.

2003-01-01

Many commercial software tools exist for fault tree analysis (FTA), an accepted method for mitigating risk in systems. The method embedded in the tools identifies a root as use in system components, but when software is identified as a root cause, it does not build trees into the software component. No commercial software tools have been built specifically for development and analysis of software fault trees. Research indicates that the methods of FTA could be applied to software, but the method is not practical without automated tool support. With appropriate automated tool support, software fault tree analysis (SFTA) may be a practical technique for identifying the underlying cause of software faults that may lead to critical system failures. We strive to demonstrate that existing commercial tools for FTA can be adapted for use with SFTA, and that applied to a safety-critical system, SFTA can be used to identify serious potential problems long before integrator and system testing.

Fault Tree Analysis: An Operations Research Tool for Identifying and Reducing Undesired Events in Training.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barker, Bruce O.; Petersen, Paul D.

This paper explores the fault-tree analysis approach to isolating failure modes within a system. Fault tree investigates potentially undesirable events and then looks for failures in sequence that would lead to their occurring. Relationships among these events are symbolized by AND or OR logic gates, AND used when single events must coexist to…

Evidential Networks for Fault Tree Analysis with Imprecise Knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jianping; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Liu, Yu; Li, Yan-Feng

2012-06-01

Fault tree analysis (FTA), as one of the powerful tools in reliability engineering, has been widely used to enhance system quality attributes. In most fault tree analyses, precise values are adopted to represent the probabilities of occurrence of those events. Due to the lack of sufficient data or imprecision of existing data at the early stage of product design, it is often difficult to accurately estimate the failure rates of individual events or the probabilities of occurrence of the events. Therefore, such imprecision and uncertainty need to be taken into account in reliability analysis. In this paper, the evidential networks (EN) are employed to quantify and propagate the aforementioned uncertainty and imprecision in fault tree analysis. The detailed conversion processes of some logic gates to EN are described in fault tree (FT). The figures of the logic gates and the converted equivalent EN, together with the associated truth tables and the conditional belief mass tables, are also presented in this work. The new epistemic importance is proposed to describe the effect of ignorance degree of event. The fault tree of an aircraft engine damaged by oil filter plugs is presented to demonstrate the proposed method.

Probabilistic fault tree analysis of a radiation treatment system.

PubMed

Ekaette, Edidiong; Lee, Robert C; Cooke, David L; Iftody, Sandra; Craighead, Peter

2007-12-01

Inappropriate administration of radiation for cancer treatment can result in severe consequences such as premature death or appreciably impaired quality of life. There has been little study of vulnerable treatment process components and their contribution to the risk of radiation treatment (RT). In this article, we describe the application of probabilistic fault tree methods to assess the probability of radiation misadministration to patients at a large cancer treatment center. We conducted a systematic analysis of the RT process that identified four process domains: Assessment, Preparation, Treatment, and Follow-up. For the Preparation domain, we analyzed possible incident scenarios via fault trees. For each task, we also identified existing quality control measures. To populate the fault trees we used subjective probabilities from experts and compared results with incident report data. Both the fault tree and the incident report analysis revealed simulation tasks to be most prone to incidents, and the treatment prescription task to be least prone to incidents. The probability of a Preparation domain incident was estimated to be in the range of 0.1-0.7% based on incident reports, which is comparable to the mean value of 0.4% from the fault tree analysis using probabilities from the expert elicitation exercise. In conclusion, an analysis of part of the RT system using a fault tree populated with subjective probabilities from experts was useful in identifying vulnerable components of the system, and provided quantitative data for risk management.

Reconfigurable tree architectures using subtree oriented fault tolerance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lowrie, Matthew B.

1987-01-01

An approach to the design of reconfigurable tree architecture is presented in which spare processors are allocated at the leaves. The approach is unique in that spares are associated with subtrees and sharing of spares between these subtrees can occur. The Subtree Oriented Fault Tolerance (SOFT) approach is more reliable than previous approaches capable of tolerating link and switch failures for both single chip and multichip tree implementations while reducing redundancy in terms of both spare processors and links. VLSI layout is 0(n) for binary trees and is directly extensible to N-ary trees and fault tolerance through performance degradation.

Secure Embedded System Design Methodologies for Military Cryptographic Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-31

Fault- Tree Analysis (FTA); Built-In Self-Test (BIST) Introduction Secure access-control systems restrict operations to authorized users via methods...failures in the individual software/processor elements, the question of exactly how unlikely is difficult to answer. Fault- Tree Analysis (FTA) has a...Collins of Sandia National Laboratories for years of sharing his extensive knowledge of Fail-Safe Design Assurance and Fault- Tree Analysis

Triggered surface slips in the Coachella Valley area associated with the 1992 Joshua Tree and Landers, California, Earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rymer, M.J.

2000-01-01

The Coachella Valley area was strongly shaken by the 1992 Joshua Tree (23 April) and Landers (28 June) earthquakes, and both events caused triggered slip on active faults within the area. Triggered slip associated with the Joshua Tree earthquake was on a newly recognized fault, the East Wide Canyon fault, near the southwestern edge of the Little San Bernardino Mountains. Slip associated with the Landers earthquake formed along the San Andreas fault in the southeastern Coachella Valley. Surface fractures formed along the East Wide Canyon fault in association with the Joshua Tree earthquake. The fractures extended discontinuously over a 1.5-km stretch of the fault, near its southern end. Sense of slip was consistently right-oblique, west side down, similar to the long-term style of faulting. Measured offset values were small, with right-lateral and vertical components of slip ranging from 1 to 6 mm and 1 to 4 mm, respectively. This is the first documented historic slip on the East Wide Canyon fault, which was first mapped only months before the Joshua Tree earthquake. Surface slip associated with the Joshua Tree earthquake most likely developed as triggered slip given its 5 km distance from the Joshua Tree epicenter and aftershocks. As revealed in a trench investigation, slip formed in an area with only a thin (<3 m thick) veneer of alluvium in contrast to earlier documented triggered slip events in this region, all in the deep basins of the Salton Trough. A paleoseismic trench study in an area of 1992 surface slip revealed evidence of two and possibly three surface faulting events on the East Wide Canyon fault during the late Quaternary, probably latest Pleistocene (first event) and mid- to late Holocene (second two events). About two months after the Joshua Tree earthquake, the Landers earthquake then triggered slip on many faults, including the San Andreas fault in the southeastern Coachella Valley. Surface fractures associated with this event formed discontinuous breaks over a 54-km-long stretch of the fault, from the Indio Hills southeastward to Durmid Hill. Sense of slip was right-lateral; only locally was there a minor (~1 mm) vertical component of slip. Measured dextral displacement values ranged from 1 to 20 mm, with the largest amounts found in the Mecca Hills where large slip values have been measured following past triggered-slip events.

A divide and conquer approach to cope with uncertainty, human health risk, and decision making in contaminant hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Barros, Felipe P. J.; Bolster, Diogo; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier; Nowak, Wolfgang

2011-05-01

Assessing health risk in hydrological systems is an interdisciplinary field. It relies on the expertise in the fields of hydrology and public health and needs powerful translation concepts to provide decision support and policy making. Reliable health risk estimates need to account for the uncertainties and variabilities present in hydrological, physiological, and human behavioral parameters. Despite significant theoretical advancements in stochastic hydrology, there is still a dire need to further propagate these concepts to practical problems and to society in general. Following a recent line of work, we use fault trees to address the task of probabilistic risk analysis and to support related decision and management problems. Fault trees allow us to decompose the assessment of health risk into individual manageable modules, thus tackling a complex system by a structural divide and conquer approach. The complexity within each module can be chosen individually according to data availability, parsimony, relative importance, and stage of analysis. Three differences are highlighted in this paper when compared to previous works: (1) The fault tree proposed here accounts for the uncertainty in both hydrological and health components, (2) system failure within the fault tree is defined in terms of risk being above a threshold value, whereas previous studies that used fault trees used auxiliary events such as exceedance of critical concentration levels, and (3) we introduce a new form of stochastic fault tree that allows us to weaken the assumption of independent subsystems that is required by a classical fault tree approach. We illustrate our concept in a simple groundwater-related setting.

Planning effectiveness may grow on fault trees.

PubMed

Chow, C W; Haddad, K; Mannino, B

1991-10-01

The first step of a strategic planning process--identifying and analyzing threats and opportunities--requires subjective judgments. By using an analytical tool known as a fault tree, healthcare administrators can reduce the unreliability of subjective decision making by creating a logical structure for problem solving and decision making. A case study of 11 healthcare administrators showed that an analysis technique called prospective hindsight can add to a fault tree's ability to improve a strategic planning process.

Transforming incomplete fault tree to Ishikawa diagram as an alternative method for technology transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batzias, Dimitris F.

2012-12-01

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) can be used for technology transfer when the relevant problem (called 'top even' in FTA) is solved in a technology centre and the results are diffused to interested parties (usually Small Medium Enterprises - SMEs) that have not the proper equipment and the required know-how to solve the problem by their own. Nevertheless, there is a significant drawback in this procedure: the information usually provided by the SMEs to the technology centre, about production conditions and corresponding quality characteristics of the product, and (sometimes) the relevant expertise in the Knowledge Base of this centre may be inadequate to form a complete fault tree. Since such cases are quite frequent in practice, we have developed a methodology for transforming incomplete fault tree to Ishikawa diagram, which is more flexible and less strict in establishing causal chains, because it uses a surface phenomenological level with a limited number of categories of faults. On the other hand, such an Ishikawa diagram can be extended to simulate a fault tree as relevant knowledge increases. An implementation of this transformation, referring to anodization of aluminium, is presented.

A systematic risk management approach employed on the CloudSat project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basilio, R. R.; Plourde, K. S.; Lam, T.

2000-01-01

The CloudSat Project has developed a simplified approach for fault tree analysis and probabilistic risk assessment. A system-level fault tree has been constructed to identify credible fault scenarios and failure modes leading up to a potential failure to meet the nominal mission success criteria.

Fault Tree Analysis: A Bibliography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

Fault tree analysis is a top-down approach to the identification of process hazards. It is as one of the best methods for systematically identifying an graphically displaying the many ways some things can go wrong. This bibliography references 266 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts. fault tree analysis, risk an probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms. An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sarrack, A.G.

The purpose of this report is to document fault tree analyses which have been completed for the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) safety analysis. Logic models for equipment failures and human error combinations that could lead to flammable gas explosions in various process tanks, or failure of critical support systems were developed for internal initiating events and for earthquakes. These fault trees provide frequency estimates for support systems failures and accidents that could lead to radioactive and hazardous chemical releases both on-site and off-site. Top event frequency results from these fault trees will be used in further APET analyses tomore » calculate accident risk associated with DWPF facility operations. This report lists and explains important underlying assumptions, provides references for failure data sources, and briefly describes the fault tree method used. Specific commitments from DWPF to provide new procedural/administrative controls or system design changes are listed in the ''Facility Commitments'' section. The purpose of the ''Assumptions'' section is to clarify the basis for fault tree modeling, and is not necessarily a list of items required to be protected by Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs).« less

Graphical fault tree analysis for fatal falls in the construction industry.

PubMed

Chi, Chia-Fen; Lin, Syuan-Zih; Dewi, Ratna Sari

2014-11-01

The current study applied a fault tree analysis to represent the causal relationships among events and causes that contributed to fatal falls in the construction industry. Four hundred and eleven work-related fatalities in the Taiwanese construction industry were analyzed in terms of age, gender, experience, falling site, falling height, company size, and the causes for each fatality. Given that most fatal accidents involve multiple events, the current study coded up to a maximum of three causes for each fall fatality. After the Boolean algebra and minimal cut set analyses, accident causes associated with each falling site can be presented as a fault tree to provide an overview of the basic causes, which could trigger fall fatalities in the construction industry. Graphical icons were designed for each falling site along with the associated accident causes to illustrate the fault tree in a graphical manner. A graphical fault tree can improve inter-disciplinary discussion of risk management and the communication of accident causation to first line supervisors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fault Tree Analysis for an Inspection Robot in a Nuclear Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, Thomas A.; Lu, Lixuan

2017-09-01

The life extension of current nuclear reactors has led to an increasing demand on inspection and maintenance of critical reactor components that are too expensive to replace. To reduce the exposure dosage to workers, robotics have become an attractive alternative as a preventative safety tool in nuclear power plants. It is crucial to understand the reliability of these robots in order to increase the veracity and confidence of their results. This study presents the Fault Tree (FT) analysis to a coolant outlet piper snake-arm inspection robot in a nuclear power plant. Fault trees were constructed for a qualitative analysis to determine the reliability of the robot. Insight on the applicability of fault tree methods for inspection robotics in the nuclear industry is gained through this investigation.

Interim reliability evaluation program, Browns Ferry fault trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stewart, M.E.

1981-01-01

An abbreviated fault tree method is used to evaluate and model Browns Ferry systems in the Interim Reliability Evaluation programs, simplifying the recording and displaying of events, yet maintaining the system of identifying faults. The level of investigation is not changed. The analytical thought process inherent in the conventional method is not compromised. But the abbreviated method takes less time, and the fault modes are much more visible.

Object-Oriented Algorithm For Evaluation Of Fault Trees

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Koen, B. V.

1992-01-01

Algorithm for direct evaluation of fault trees incorporates techniques of object-oriented programming. Reduces number of calls needed to solve trees with repeated events. Provides significantly improved software environment for such computations as quantitative analyses of safety and reliability of complicated systems of equipment (e.g., spacecraft or factories).

Monte Carlo Simulation of Markov, Semi-Markov, and Generalized Semi- Markov Processes in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

English, Thomas

2005-01-01

A standard tool of reliability analysis used at NASA-JSC is the event tree. An event tree is simply a probability tree, with the probabilities determining the next step through the tree specified at each node. The nodal probabilities are determined by a reliability study of the physical system at work for a particular node. The reliability study performed at a node is typically referred to as a fault tree analysis, with the potential of a fault tree existing.for each node on the event tree. When examining an event tree it is obvious why the event tree/fault tree approach has been adopted. Typical event trees are quite complex in nature, and the event tree/fault tree approach provides a systematic and organized approach to reliability analysis. The purpose of this study was two fold. Firstly, we wanted to explore the possibility that a semi-Markov process can create dependencies between sojourn times (the times it takes to transition from one state to the next) that can decrease the uncertainty when estimating time to failures. Using a generalized semi-Markov model, we studied a four element reliability model and were able to demonstrate such sojourn time dependencies. Secondly, we wanted to study the use of semi-Markov processes to introduce a time variable into the event tree diagrams that are commonly developed in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) analyses. Event tree end states which change with time are more representative of failure scenarios than are the usual static probability-derived end states.

Structural system reliability calculation using a probabilistic fault tree analysis method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Torng, T. Y.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, H. R.

1992-01-01

The development of a new probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) method for calculating structural system reliability is summarized. The proposed PFTA procedure includes: developing a fault tree to represent the complex structural system, constructing an approximation function for each bottom event, determining a dominant sampling sequence for all bottom events, and calculating the system reliability using an adaptive importance sampling method. PFTA is suitable for complicated structural problems that require computer-intensive computer calculations. A computer program has been developed to implement the PFTA.

Using Fault Trees to Advance Understanding of Diagnostic Errors.

PubMed

Rogith, Deevakar; Iyengar, M Sriram; Singh, Hardeep

2017-11-01

Diagnostic errors annually affect at least 5% of adults in the outpatient setting in the United States. Formal analytic techniques are only infrequently used to understand them, in part because of the complexity of diagnostic processes and clinical work flows involved. In this article, diagnostic errors were modeled using fault tree analysis (FTA), a form of root cause analysis that has been successfully used in other high-complexity, high-risk contexts. How factors contributing to diagnostic errors can be systematically modeled by FTA to inform error understanding and error prevention is demonstrated. A team of three experts reviewed 10 published cases of diagnostic error and constructed fault trees. The fault trees were modeled according to currently available conceptual frameworks characterizing diagnostic error. The 10 trees were then synthesized into a single fault tree to identify common contributing factors and pathways leading to diagnostic error. FTA is a visual, structured, deductive approach that depicts the temporal sequence of events and their interactions in a formal logical hierarchy. The visual FTA enables easier understanding of causative processes and cognitive and system factors, as well as rapid identification of common pathways and interactions in a unified fashion. In addition, it enables calculation of empirical estimates for causative pathways. Thus, fault trees might provide a useful framework for both quantitative and qualitative analysis of diagnostic errors. Future directions include establishing validity and reliability by modeling a wider range of error cases, conducting quantitative evaluations, and undertaking deeper exploration of other FTA capabilities. Copyright © 2017 The Joint Commission. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Locating hardware faults in a data communications network of a parallel computer

DOEpatents

Archer, Charles J.; Megerian, Mark G.; Ratterman, Joseph D.; Smith, Brian E.

2010-01-12

Hardware faults location in a data communications network of a parallel computer. Such a parallel computer includes a plurality of compute nodes and a data communications network that couples the compute nodes for data communications and organizes the compute node as a tree. Locating hardware faults includes identifying a next compute node as a parent node and a root of a parent test tree, identifying for each child compute node of the parent node a child test tree having the child compute node as root, running a same test suite on the parent test tree and each child test tree, and identifying the parent compute node as having a defective link connected from the parent compute node to a child compute node if the test suite fails on the parent test tree and succeeds on all the child test trees.

A computational framework for prime implicants identification in noncoherent dynamic systems.

PubMed

Di Maio, Francesco; Baronchelli, Samuele; Zio, Enrico

2015-01-01

Dynamic reliability methods aim at complementing the capability of traditional static approaches (e.g., event trees [ETs] and fault trees [FTs]) by accounting for the system dynamic behavior and its interactions with the system state transition process. For this, the system dynamics is here described by a time-dependent model that includes the dependencies with the stochastic transition events. In this article, we present a novel computational framework for dynamic reliability analysis whose objectives are i) accounting for discrete stochastic transition events and ii) identifying the prime implicants (PIs) of the dynamic system. The framework entails adopting a multiple-valued logic (MVL) to consider stochastic transitions at discretized times. Then, PIs are originally identified by a differential evolution (DE) algorithm that looks for the optimal MVL solution of a covering problem formulated for MVL accident scenarios. For testing the feasibility of the framework, a dynamic noncoherent system composed of five components that can fail at discretized times has been analyzed, showing the applicability of the framework to practical cases. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Analytical simulation and PROFAT II: a new methodology and a computer automated tool for fault tree analysis in chemical process industries.

PubMed

Khan, F I; Abbasi, S A

2000-07-10

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is based on constructing a hypothetical tree of base events (initiating events) branching into numerous other sub-events, propagating the fault and eventually leading to the top event (accident). It has been a powerful technique used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries. As the systematic articulation of the fault tree is associated with assigning probabilities to each fault, the exercise is also sometimes called probabilistic risk assessment. But powerful as this technique is, it is also very cumbersome and costly, limiting its area of application. We have developed a new algorithm based on analytical simulation (named as AS-II), which makes the application of FTA simpler, quicker, and cheaper; thus opening up the possibility of its wider use in risk assessment in chemical process industries. Based on the methodology we have developed a computer-automated tool. The details are presented in this paper.

Safety and reliability analysis in a polyvinyl chloride batch process using dynamic simulator-case study: Loss of containment incident.

PubMed

Rizal, Datu; Tani, Shinichi; Nishiyama, Kimitoshi; Suzuki, Kazuhiko

2006-10-11

In this paper, a novel methodology in batch plant safety and reliability analysis is proposed using a dynamic simulator. A batch process involving several safety objects (e.g. sensors, controller, valves, etc.) is activated during the operational stage. The performance of the safety objects is evaluated by the dynamic simulation and a fault propagation model is generated. By using the fault propagation model, an improved fault tree analysis (FTA) method using switching signal mode (SSM) is developed for estimating the probability of failures. The timely dependent failures can be considered as unavailability of safety objects that can cause the accidents in a plant. Finally, the rank of safety object is formulated as performance index (PI) and can be estimated using the importance measures. PI shows the prioritization of safety objects that should be investigated for safety improvement program in the plants. The output of this method can be used for optimal policy in safety object improvement and maintenance. The dynamic simulator was constructed using Visual Modeler (VM, the plant simulator, developed by Omega Simulation Corp., Japan). A case study is focused on the loss of containment (LOC) incident at polyvinyl chloride (PVC) batch process which is consumed the hazardous material, vinyl chloride monomer (VCM).

DG TO FT - AUTOMATIC TRANSLATION OF DIGRAPH TO FAULT TREE MODELS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iverson, D. L.

1994-01-01

Fault tree and digraph models are frequently used for system failure analysis. Both types of models represent a failure space view of the system using AND and OR nodes in a directed graph structure. Each model has its advantages. While digraphs can be derived in a fairly straightforward manner from system schematics and knowledge about component failure modes and system design, fault tree structure allows for fast processing using efficient techniques developed for tree data structures. The similarities between digraphs and fault trees permits the information encoded in the digraph to be translated into a logically equivalent fault tree. The DG TO FT translation tool will automatically translate digraph models, including those with loops or cycles, into fault tree models that have the same minimum cut set solutions as the input digraph. This tool could be useful, for example, if some parts of a system have been modeled using digraphs and others using fault trees. The digraphs could be translated and incorporated into the fault trees, allowing them to be analyzed using a number of powerful fault tree processing codes, such as cut set and quantitative solution codes. A cut set for a given node is a group of failure events that will cause the failure of the node. A minimum cut set for a node is any cut set that, if any of the failures in the set were to be removed, the occurrence of the other failures in the set will not cause the failure of the event represented by the node. Cut sets calculations can be used to find dependencies, weak links, and vital system components whose failures would cause serious systems failure. The DG TO FT translation system reads in a digraph with each node listed as a separate object in the input file. The user specifies a terminal node for the digraph that will be used as the top node of the resulting fault tree. A fault tree basic event node representing the failure of that digraph node is created and becomes a child of the terminal root node. A subtree is created for each of the inputs to the digraph terminal node and the root of those subtrees are added as children of the top node of the fault tree. Every node in the digraph upstream of the terminal node will be visited and converted. During the conversion process, the algorithm keeps track of the path from the digraph terminal node to the current digraph node. If a node is visited twice, then the program has found a cycle in the digraph. This cycle is broken by finding the minimal cut sets of the twice visited digraph node and forming those cut sets into subtrees. Another implementation of the algorithm resolves loops by building a subtree based on the digraph minimal cut sets calculation. It does not reduce the subtree to minimal cut set form. This second implementation produces larger fault trees, but runs much faster than the version using minimal cut sets since it does not spend time reducing the subtrees to minimal cut sets. The fault trees produced by DG TO FT will contain OR gates, AND gates, Basic Event nodes, and NOP gates. The results of a translation can be output as a text object description of the fault tree similar to the text digraph input format. The translator can also output a LISP language formatted file and an augmented LISP file which can be used by the FTDS (ARC-13019) diagnosis system, available from COSMIC, which performs diagnostic reasoning using the fault tree as a knowledge base. DG TO FT is written in C-language to be machine independent. It has been successfully implemented on a Sun running SunOS, a DECstation running ULTRIX, a Macintosh running System 7, and a DEC VAX running VMS. The RAM requirement varies with the size of the models. DG TO FT is available in UNIX tar format on a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge (standard distribution) or on a 3.5 inch diskette. It is also available on a 3.5 inch Macintosh format diskette or on a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in DEC VAX FILES-11 format. Sample input and sample output are provided on the distribution medium. An electronic copy of the documentation in Macintosh Microsoft Word format is provided on the distribution medium. DG TO FT was developed in 1992. Sun, and SunOS are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. DECstation, ULTRIX, VAX, and VMS are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories. Macintosh is a registered trademark of Apple Computer, Inc. System 7 is a trademark of Apple Computers Inc. Microsoft Word is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation.

Reliability database development for use with an object-oriented fault tree evaluation program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heger, A. Sharif; Harringtton, Robert J.; Koen, Billy V.; Patterson-Hine, F. Ann

1989-01-01

A description is given of the development of a fault-tree analysis method using object-oriented programming. In addition, the authors discuss the programs that have been developed or are under development to connect a fault-tree analysis routine to a reliability database. To assess the performance of the routines, a relational database simulating one of the nuclear power industry databases has been constructed. For a realistic assessment of the results of this project, the use of one of existing nuclear power reliability databases is planned.

Fault diagnosis of power transformer based on fault-tree analysis (FTA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yongliang; Li, Xiaoqiang; Ma, Jianwei; Li, SuoYu

2017-05-01

Power transformers is an important equipment in power plants and substations, power distribution transmission link is made an important hub of power systems. Its performance directly affects the quality and health of the power system reliability and stability. This paper summarizes the five parts according to the fault type power transformers, then from the time dimension divided into three stages of power transformer fault, use DGA routine analysis and infrared diagnostics criterion set power transformer running state, finally, according to the needs of power transformer fault diagnosis, by the general to the section by stepwise refinement of dendritic tree constructed power transformer fault

Dynamic rupture simulations on a fault network in the Corinth Rift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durand, V.; Hok, S.; Boiselet, A.; Bernard, P.; Scotti, O.

2017-03-01

The Corinth rift (Greece) is made of a complex network of fault segments, typically 10-20 km long separated by stepovers. Assessing the maximum magnitude possible in this region requires accounting for multisegment rupture. Here we apply numerical models of dynamic rupture to quantify the probability of a multisegment rupture in the rift, based on the knowledge of the fault geometry and on the magnitude of the historical and palaeoearthquakes. We restrict our application to dynamic rupture on the most recent and active fault network of the western rift, located on the southern coast. We first define several models, varying the main physical parameters that control the rupture propagation. We keep the regional stress field and stress drop constant, and we test several fault geometries, several positions of the faults in their seismic cycle, several values of the critical distance (and so several fracture energies) and two different hypocentres (thus testing two directivity hypothesis). We obtain different scenarios in terms of the number of ruptured segments and the final magnitude (between M = 5.8 for a single segment rupture to M = 6.4 for a whole network rupture), and find that the main parameter controlling the variability of the scenarios is the fracture energy. We then use a probabilistic approach to quantify the probability of each generated scenario. To do that, we implement a logical tree associating a weight to each model input hypothesis. Combining these weights, we compute the probability of occurrence of each scenario, and show that the multisegment scenarios are very likely (52 per cent), but that the whole network rupture scenario is unlikely (14 per cent).

CUTSETS - MINIMAL CUT SET CALCULATION FOR DIGRAPH AND FAULT TREE RELIABILITY MODELS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iverson, D. L.

1994-01-01

Fault tree and digraph models are frequently used for system failure analysis. Both type of models represent a failure space view of the system using AND and OR nodes in a directed graph structure. Fault trees must have a tree structure and do not allow cycles or loops in the graph. Digraphs allow any pattern of interconnection between loops in the graphs. A common operation performed on digraph and fault tree models is the calculation of minimal cut sets. A cut set is a set of basic failures that could cause a given target failure event to occur. A minimal cut set for a target event node in a fault tree or digraph is any cut set for the node with the property that if any one of the failures in the set is removed, the occurrence of the other failures in the set will not cause the target failure event. CUTSETS will identify all the minimal cut sets for a given node. The CUTSETS package contains programs that solve for minimal cut sets of fault trees and digraphs using object-oriented programming techniques. These cut set codes can be used to solve graph models for reliability analysis and identify potential single point failures in a modeled system. The fault tree minimal cut set code reads in a fault tree model input file with each node listed in a text format. In the input file the user specifies a top node of the fault tree and a maximum cut set size to be calculated. CUTSETS will find minimal sets of basic events which would cause the failure at the output of a given fault tree gate. The program can find all the minimal cut sets of a node, or minimal cut sets up to a specified size. The algorithm performs a recursive top down parse of the fault tree, starting at the specified top node, and combines the cut sets of each child node into sets of basic event failures that would cause the failure event at the output of that gate. Minimal cut set solutions can be found for all nodes in the fault tree or just for the top node. The digraph cut set code uses the same techniques as the fault tree cut set code, except it includes all upstream digraph nodes in the cut sets for a given node and checks for cycles in the digraph during the solution process. CUTSETS solves for specified nodes and will not automatically solve for all upstream digraph nodes. The cut sets will be output as a text file. CUTSETS includes a utility program that will convert the popular COD format digraph model description files into text input files suitable for use with the CUTSETS programs. FEAT (MSC-21873) and FIRM (MSC-21860) available from COSMIC are examples of programs that produce COD format digraph model description files that may be converted for use with the CUTSETS programs. CUTSETS is written in C-language to be machine independent. It has been successfully implemented on a Sun running SunOS, a DECstation running ULTRIX, a Macintosh running System 7, and a DEC VAX running VMS. The RAM requirement varies with the size of the models. CUTSETS is available in UNIX tar format on a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge (standard distribution) or on a 3.5 inch diskette. It is also available on a 3.5 inch Macintosh format diskette or on a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in DEC VAX FILES-11 format. Sample input and sample output are provided on the distribution medium. An electronic copy of the documentation in Macintosh Microsoft Word format is included on the distribution medium. Sun and SunOS are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. DEC, DeCstation, ULTRIX, VAX, and VMS are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories. Macintosh is a registered trademark of Apple Computer, Inc.

Fault trees for decision making in systems analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lambert, Howard E.

1975-10-09

The application of fault tree analysis (FTA) to system safety and reliability is presented within the framework of system safety analysis. The concepts and techniques involved in manual and automated fault tree construction are described and their differences noted. The theory of mathematical reliability pertinent to FTA is presented with emphasis on engineering applications. An outline of the quantitative reliability techniques of the Reactor Safety Study is given. Concepts of probabilistic importance are presented within the fault tree framework and applied to the areas of system design, diagnosis and simulation. The computer code IMPORTANCE ranks basic events and cut setsmore » according to a sensitivity analysis. A useful feature of the IMPORTANCE code is that it can accept relative failure data as input. The output of the IMPORTANCE code can assist an analyst in finding weaknesses in system design and operation, suggest the most optimal course of system upgrade, and determine the optimal location of sensors within a system. A general simulation model of system failure in terms of fault tree logic is described. The model is intended for efficient diagnosis of the causes of system failure in the event of a system breakdown. It can also be used to assist an operator in making decisions under a time constraint regarding the future course of operations. The model is well suited for computer implementation. New results incorporated in the simulation model include an algorithm to generate repair checklists on the basis of fault tree logic and a one-step-ahead optimization procedure that minimizes the expected time to diagnose system failure.« less

Fire safety in transit systems fault tree analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-09-01

Fire safety countermeasures applicable to transit vehicles are identified and evaluated. This document contains fault trees which illustrate the sequences of events which may lead to a transit-fire related casualty. A description of the basis for the...

Adaptive Sampling using Support Vector Machines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D. Mandelli; C. Smith

2012-11-01

Reliability/safety analysis of stochastic dynamic systems (e.g., nuclear power plants, airplanes, chemical plants) is currently performed through a combination of Event-Tress and Fault-Trees. However, these conventional methods suffer from certain drawbacks: • Timing of events is not explicitly modeled • Ordering of events is preset by the analyst • The modeling of complex accident scenarios is driven by expert-judgment For these reasons, there is currently an increasing interest into the development of dynamic PRA methodologies since they can be used to address the deficiencies of conventional methods listed above.

System Analysis by Mapping a Fault-tree into a Bayesian-network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, B.; Deng, C.; Wang, Y. H.; Tang, L. H.

2018-05-01

In view of the limitations of fault tree analysis in reliability assessment, Bayesian Network (BN) has been studied as an alternative technology. After a brief introduction to the method for mapping a Fault Tree (FT) into an equivalent BN, equations used to calculate the structure importance degree, the probability importance degree and the critical importance degree are presented. Furthermore, the correctness of these equations is proved mathematically. Combining with an aircraft landing gear’s FT, an equivalent BN is developed and analysed. The results show that richer and more accurate information have been achieved through the BN method than the FT, which demonstrates that the BN is a superior technique in both reliability assessment and fault diagnosis.

Model-based development of a fault signature matrix to improve solid oxide fuel cell systems on-site diagnosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polverino, Pierpaolo; Pianese, Cesare; Sorrentino, Marco; Marra, Dario

2015-04-01

The paper focuses on the design of a procedure for the development of an on-field diagnostic algorithm for solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) systems. The diagnosis design phase relies on an in-deep analysis of the mutual interactions among all system components by exploiting the physical knowledge of the SOFC system as a whole. This phase consists of the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), which identifies the correlations among possible faults and their corresponding symptoms at system components level. The main outcome of the FTA is an inferential isolation tool (Fault Signature Matrix - FSM), which univocally links the faults to the symptoms detected during the system monitoring. In this work the FTA is considered as a starting point to develop an improved FSM. Making use of a model-based investigation, a fault-to-symptoms dependency study is performed. To this purpose a dynamic model, previously developed by the authors, is exploited to simulate the system under faulty conditions. Five faults are simulated, one for the stack and four occurring at BOP level. Moreover, the robustness of the FSM design is increased by exploiting symptom thresholds defined for the investigation of the quantitative effects of the simulated faults on the affected variables.

Reset Tree-Based Optical Fault Detection

PubMed Central

Lee, Dong-Geon; Choi, Dooho; Seo, Jungtaek; Kim, Howon

2013-01-01

In this paper, we present a new reset tree-based scheme to protect cryptographic hardware against optical fault injection attacks. As one of the most powerful invasive attacks on cryptographic hardware, optical fault attacks cause semiconductors to misbehave by injecting high-energy light into a decapped integrated circuit. The contaminated result from the affected chip is then used to reveal secret information, such as a key, from the cryptographic hardware. Since the advent of such attacks, various countermeasures have been proposed. Although most of these countermeasures are strong, there is still the possibility of attack. In this paper, we present a novel optical fault detection scheme that utilizes the buffers on a circuit's reset signal tree as a fault detection sensor. To evaluate our proposal, we model radiation-induced currents into circuit components and perform a SPICE simulation. The proposed scheme is expected to be used as a supplemental security tool. PMID:23698267

Fault tree applications within the safety program of Idaho Nuclear Corporation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vesely, W. E.

1971-01-01

Computerized fault tree analyses are used to obtain both qualitative and quantitative information about the safety and reliability of an electrical control system that shuts the reactor down when certain safety criteria are exceeded, in the design of a nuclear plant protection system, and in an investigation of a backup emergency system for reactor shutdown. The fault tree yields the modes by which the system failure or accident will occur, the most critical failure or accident causing areas, detailed failure probabilities, and the response of safety or reliability to design modifications and maintenance schemes.

Lognormal Approximations of Fault Tree Uncertainty Distributions.

PubMed

El-Shanawany, Ashraf Ben; Ardron, Keith H; Walker, Simon P

2018-01-26

Fault trees are used in reliability modeling to create logical models of fault combinations that can lead to undesirable events. The output of a fault tree analysis (the top event probability) is expressed in terms of the failure probabilities of basic events that are input to the model. Typically, the basic event probabilities are not known exactly, but are modeled as probability distributions: therefore, the top event probability is also represented as an uncertainty distribution. Monte Carlo methods are generally used for evaluating the uncertainty distribution, but such calculations are computationally intensive and do not readily reveal the dominant contributors to the uncertainty. In this article, a closed-form approximation for the fault tree top event uncertainty distribution is developed, which is applicable when the uncertainties in the basic events of the model are lognormally distributed. The results of the approximate method are compared with results from two sampling-based methods: namely, the Monte Carlo method and the Wilks method based on order statistics. It is shown that the closed-form expression can provide a reasonable approximation to results obtained by Monte Carlo sampling, without incurring the computational expense. The Wilks method is found to be a useful means of providing an upper bound for the percentiles of the uncertainty distribution while being computationally inexpensive compared with full Monte Carlo sampling. The lognormal approximation method and Wilks's method appear attractive, practical alternatives for the evaluation of uncertainty in the output of fault trees and similar multilinear models. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Fault Tree Analysis as a Planning and Management Tool: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Witkin, Belle Ruth

1977-01-01

Fault Tree Analysis is an operations research technique used to analyse the most probable modes of failure in a system, in order to redesign or monitor the system more closely in order to increase its likelihood of success. (Author)

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Hydraulic Fracturing in Unconventional Reservoirs by Means of Fault Tree Analysis: An Initial Discussion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodak, C. M.; McHugh, R.; Wei, X.

2016-12-01

The development and combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has unlocked unconventional hydrocarbon reserves around the globe. These advances have triggered a number of concerns regarding aquifer contamination and over-exploitation, leading to scientific studies investigating potential risks posed by directional hydraulic fracturing activities. These studies, balanced with potential economic benefits of energy production, are a crucial source of information for communities considering the development of unconventional reservoirs. However, probabilistic quantification of the overall risk posed by hydraulic fracturing at the system level are rare. Here we present the concept of fault tree analysis to determine the overall probability of groundwater contamination or over-exploitation, broadly referred to as the probability of failure. The potential utility of fault tree analysis for the quantification and communication of risks is approached with a general application. However, the fault tree design is robust and can handle various combinations of regional-specific data pertaining to relevant spatial scales, geological conditions, and industry practices where available. All available data are grouped into quantity and quality-based impacts and sub-divided based on the stage of the hydraulic fracturing process in which the data is relevant as described by the USEPA. Each stage is broken down into the unique basic events required for failure; for example, to quantify the risk of an on-site spill we must consider the likelihood, magnitude, composition, and subsurface transport of the spill. The structure of the fault tree described above can be used to render a highly complex system of variables into a straightforward equation for risk calculation based on Boolean logic. This project shows the utility of fault tree analysis for the visual communication of the potential risks of hydraulic fracturing activities on groundwater resources.

Evaluation of the safety performance of highway alignments based on fault tree analysis and safety boundaries.

PubMed

Chen, Yikai; Wang, Kai; Xu, Chengcheng; Shi, Qin; He, Jie; Li, Peiqing; Shi, Ting

2018-05-19

To overcome the limitations of previous highway alignment safety evaluation methods, this article presents a highway alignment safety evaluation method based on fault tree analysis (FTA) and the characteristics of vehicle safety boundaries, within the framework of dynamic modeling of the driver-vehicle-road system. Approaches for categorizing the vehicle failure modes while driving on highways and the corresponding safety boundaries were comprehensively investigated based on vehicle system dynamics theory. Then, an overall crash probability model was formulated based on FTA considering the risks of 3 failure modes: losing steering capability, losing track-holding capability, and rear-end collision. The proposed method was implemented on a highway segment between Bengbu and Nanjing in China. A driver-vehicle-road multibody dynamics model was developed based on the 3D alignments of the Bengbu to Nanjing section of Ning-Luo expressway using Carsim, and the dynamics indices, such as sideslip angle and, yaw rate were obtained. Then, the average crash probability of each road section was calculated with a fixed-length method. Finally, the average crash probability was validated against the crash frequency per kilometer to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. The results of the regression analysis and correlation analysis indicated good consistency between the results of the safety evaluation and the crash data and that it outperformed the safety evaluation methods used in previous studies. The proposed method has the potential to be used in practical engineering applications to identify crash-prone locations and alignment deficiencies on highways in the planning and design phases, as well as those in service.

Fault Tree Analysis: An Emerging Methodology for Instructional Science.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, R. Kent; And Others

1979-01-01

Describes Fault Tree Analysis, a tool for systems analysis which attempts to identify possible modes of failure in systems to increase the probability of success. The article defines the technique and presents the steps of FTA construction, focusing on its application to education. (RAO)

Program listing for fault tree analysis of JPL technical report 32-1542

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chelson, P. O.

1971-01-01

The computer program listing for the MAIN program and those subroutines unique to the fault tree analysis are described. Some subroutines are used for analyzing the reliability block diagram. The program is written in FORTRAN 5 and is running on a UNIVAC 1108.

Data Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powell, Danny H; Elwood Jr, Robert H

2011-01-01

Analysis of the material protection, control, and accountability (MPC&A) system is necessary to understand the limits and vulnerabilities of the system to internal threats. A self-appraisal helps the facility be prepared to respond to internal threats and reduce the risk of theft or diversion of nuclear material. The material control and accountability (MC&A) system effectiveness tool (MSET) fault tree was developed to depict the failure of the MPC&A system as a result of poor practices and random failures in the MC&A system. It can also be employed as a basis for assessing deliberate threats against a facility. MSET uses faultmore » tree analysis, which is a top-down approach to examining system failure. The analysis starts with identifying a potential undesirable event called a 'top event' and then determining the ways it can occur (e.g., 'Fail To Maintain Nuclear Materials Under The Purview Of The MC&A System'). The analysis proceeds by determining how the top event can be caused by individual or combined lower level faults or failures. These faults, which are the causes of the top event, are 'connected' through logic gates. The MSET model uses AND-gates and OR-gates and propagates the effect of event failure using Boolean algebra. To enable the fault tree analysis calculations, the basic events in the fault tree are populated with probability risk values derived by conversion of questionnaire data to numeric values. The basic events are treated as independent variables. This assumption affects the Boolean algebraic calculations used to calculate results. All the necessary calculations are built into the fault tree codes, but it is often useful to estimate the probabilities manually as a check on code functioning. The probability of failure of a given basic event is the probability that the basic event primary question fails to meet the performance metric for that question. The failure probability is related to how well the facility performs the task identified in that basic event over time (not just one performance or exercise). Fault tree calculations provide a failure probability for the top event in the fault tree. The basic fault tree calculations establish a baseline relative risk value for the system. This probability depicts relative risk, not absolute risk. Subsequent calculations are made to evaluate the change in relative risk that would occur if system performance is improved or degraded. During the development effort of MSET, the fault tree analysis program used was SAPHIRE. SAPHIRE is an acronym for 'Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations.' Version 1 of the SAPHIRE code was sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 1987 as an innovative way to draw, edit, and analyze graphical fault trees primarily for safe operation of nuclear power reactors. When the fault tree calculations are performed, the fault tree analysis program will produce several reports that can be used to analyze the MPC&A system. SAPHIRE produces reports showing risk importance factors for all basic events in the operational MC&A system. The risk importance information is used to examine the potential impacts when performance of certain basic events increases or decreases. The initial results produced by the SAPHIRE program are considered relative risk values. None of the results can be interpreted as absolute risk values since the basic event probability values represent estimates of risk associated with the performance of MPC&A tasks throughout the material balance area (MBA). The RRR for a basic event represents the decrease in total system risk that would result from improvement of that one event to a perfect performance level. Improvement of the basic event with the greatest RRR value produces a greater decrease in total system risk than improvement of any other basic event. Basic events with the greatest potential for system risk reduction are assigned performance improvement values, and new fault tree calculations show the improvement in total system risk. The operational impact or cost-effectiveness from implementing the performance improvements can then be evaluated. The improvements being evaluated can be system performance improvements, or they can be potential, or actual, upgrades to the system. The RIR for a basic event represents the increase in total system risk that would result from failure of that one event. Failure of the basic event with the greatest RIR value produces a greater increase in total system risk than failure of any other basic event. Basic events with the greatest potential for system risk increase are assigned failure performance values, and new fault tree calculations show the increase in total system risk. This evaluation shows the importance of preventing performance degradation of the basic events. SAPHIRE identifies combinations of basic events where concurrent failure of the events results in failure of the top event.« less

Insights into alluvial fan dynamics: Evolution of the Miocene Elephant Trees Formation, Anza Borrego Desert, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steel, E.; Simkins, L. M.; Reynolds, L.; Fidler, M. K.

2017-12-01

The Cenozoic Fish Creek - Vallecito Basin formed through extension and transtention associated with the localization of the Pacific-North American plate boundary in the Salton Trough region of Southern California. The exhumation of this basin along the hanging wall of the West Salton Detachment Fault since 1 Ma exposed a well-preserved sedimentary sequence that records an abrupt shift from the alluvial and fluvial deposits of the Elephant Trees Formation to the marine turbidites of the Latrania Formation. This transition marks the rapid marine incursion into the Gulf of California at 6.3 Ma (Dorsey et al., 2011). The Elephant Trees Formation is, therefore, a key transitional unit for understanding environmental change during the early stages of basin formation and the initial opening of the Gulf of California. Here, we present a detailed investigation of the characteristics of the Elephant Trees Formation, including bed thickness, clast size, paleoflow indicators, sedimentary structures, and sorting to understand the changing depositional environments associated with the onset of relative plate motion in the Gulf of California - Salton Trough corridor. This study aims to answer key questions regarding both regional tectonics and the dynamics of alluvial fan progradation, including 1) Does the Elephant Trees Formation record initiation of rapid basin subsidence and basinward progradation of alluvial fans? And 2) if so, what insights can the Elephant Trees Formation provide regarding the dynamics of debris flows and alluvial fan evolution? Our results improve understanding of proximal to distal facies variations within alluvial fan deposits and further refine the paleogeography during time of deposition of the Elephant Trees Formation ( 6.3 - 8.0 Ma) leading up to the timing of rapid marine incursion.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

2011-01-01

Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigating Strain Transfer Along the Southern San Andreas Fault: A Geomorphic and Geodetic Study of Block Rotation in the Eastern Transverse Ranges, Joshua Tree National Park, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guns, K. A.; Bennett, R. A.; Blisniuk, K.

2017-12-01

To better evaluate the distribution and transfer of strain and slip along the Southern San Andreas Fault (SSAF) zone in the northern Coachella valley in southern California, we integrate geological and geodetic observations to test whether strain is being transferred away from the SSAF system towards the Eastern California Shear Zone through microblock rotation of the Eastern Transverse Ranges (ETR). The faults of the ETR consist of five east-west trending left lateral strike slip faults that have measured cumulative offsets of up to 20 km and as low as 1 km. Present kinematic and block models present a variety of slip rate estimates, from as low as zero to as high as 7 mm/yr, suggesting a gap in our understanding of what role these faults play in the larger system. To determine whether present-day block rotation along these faults is contributing to strain transfer in the region, we are applying 10Be surface exposure dating methods to observed offset channel and alluvial fan deposits in order to estimate fault slip rates along two faults in the ETR. We present observations of offset geomorphic landforms using field mapping and LiDAR data at three sites along the Blue Cut Fault and one site along the Smoke Tree Wash Fault in Joshua Tree National Park which indicate recent Quaternary fault activity. Initial results of site mapping and clast count analyses reveal at least three stages of offset, including potential Holocene offsets, for one site along the Blue Cut Fault, while preliminary 10Be geochronology is in progress. This geologic slip rate data, combined with our new geodetic surface velocity field derived from updated campaign-based GPS measurements within Joshua Tree National Park will allow us to construct a suite of elastic fault block models to elucidate rates of strain transfer away from the SSAF and how that strain transfer may be affecting the length of the interseismic period along the SSAF.

FAULT TREE ANALYSIS FOR EXPOSURE TO REFRIGERANTS USED FOR AUTOMOTIVE AIR CONDITIONING IN THE U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

A fault tree analysis was used to estimate the number of refrigerant exposures of automotive service technicians and vehicle occupants in the United States. Exposures of service technicians can occur when service equipment or automotive air-conditioning systems leak during servic...

A Fault Tree Approach to Analysis of Organizational Communication Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Witkin, Belle Ruth; Stephens, Kent G.

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a method of examing communication in an organization by focusing on: (1) the complex interrelationships in human systems, particularly in communication systems; (2) interactions across subsystems and system boundaries; and (3) the need to select and "prioritize" channels which will eliminate noise in the…

Applying fault tree analysis to the prevention of wrong-site surgery.

PubMed

Abecassis, Zachary A; McElroy, Lisa M; Patel, Ronak M; Khorzad, Rebeca; Carroll, Charles; Mehrotra, Sanjay

2015-01-01

Wrong-site surgery (WSS) is a rare event that occurs to hundreds of patients each year. Despite national implementation of the Universal Protocol over the past decade, development of effective interventions remains a challenge. We performed a systematic review of the literature reporting root causes of WSS and used the results to perform a fault tree analysis to assess the reliability of the system in preventing WSS and identifying high-priority targets for interventions aimed at reducing WSS. Process components where a single error could result in WSS were labeled with OR gates; process aspects reinforced by verification were labeled with AND gates. The overall redundancy of the system was evaluated based on prevalence of AND gates and OR gates. In total, 37 studies described risk factors for WSS. The fault tree contains 35 faults, most of which fall into five main categories. Despite the Universal Protocol mandating patient verification, surgical site signing, and a brief time-out, a large proportion of the process relies on human transcription and verification. Fault tree analysis provides a standardized perspective of errors or faults within the system of surgical scheduling and site confirmation. It can be adapted by institutions or specialties to lead to more targeted interventions to increase redundancy and reliability within the preoperative process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing Earthquake-Induced Tree Mortality in Temperate Forest Ecosystems: A Case Study from Wenchuan, China

DOE PAGES

Zeng, Hongcheng; Lu, Tao; Jenkins, Hillary; ...

2016-03-17

Earthquakes can produce significant tree mortality, and consequently affect regional carbon dynamics. Unfortunately, detailed studies quantifying the influence of earthquake on forest mortality are currently rare. The committed forest biomass carbon loss associated with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China is assessed by a synthetic approach in this study that integrated field investigation, remote sensing analysis, empirical models and Monte Carlo simulation. The newly developed approach significantly improved the forest disturbance evaluation by quantitatively defining the earthquake impact boundary and detailed field survey to validate the mortality models. Based on our approach, a total biomass carbon of 10.9 Tg·C wasmore » lost in Wenchuan earthquake, which offset 0.23% of the living biomass carbon stock in Chinese forests. Tree mortality was highly clustered at epicenter, and declined rapidly with distance away from the fault zone. It is suggested that earthquakes represent a signif icant driver to forest carbon dynamics, and the earthquake-induced biomass carbon loss should be included in estimating forest carbon budgets.« less

Assessing Earthquake-Induced Tree Mortality in Temperate Forest Ecosystems: A Case Study from Wenchuan, China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zeng, Hongcheng; Lu, Tao; Jenkins, Hillary

Earthquakes can produce significant tree mortality, and consequently affect regional carbon dynamics. Unfortunately, detailed studies quantifying the influence of earthquake on forest mortality are currently rare. The committed forest biomass carbon loss associated with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China is assessed by a synthetic approach in this study that integrated field investigation, remote sensing analysis, empirical models and Monte Carlo simulation. The newly developed approach significantly improved the forest disturbance evaluation by quantitatively defining the earthquake impact boundary and detailed field survey to validate the mortality models. Based on our approach, a total biomass carbon of 10.9 Tg·C wasmore » lost in Wenchuan earthquake, which offset 0.23% of the living biomass carbon stock in Chinese forests. Tree mortality was highly clustered at epicenter, and declined rapidly with distance away from the fault zone. It is suggested that earthquakes represent a signif icant driver to forest carbon dynamics, and the earthquake-induced biomass carbon loss should be included in estimating forest carbon budgets.« less

High-resolution gravity and seismic-refraction surveys of the Smoke Tree Wash area, Joshua Tree National Park, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langenheim, Victoria E.; Rymer, Michael J.; Catchings, Rufus D.; Goldman, Mark R.; Watt, Janet T.; Powell, Robert E.; Matti, Jonathan C.

2016-03-02

We describe high-resolution gravity and seismic refraction surveys acquired to determine the thickness of valley-fill deposits and to delineate geologic structures that might influence groundwater flow beneath the Smoke Tree Wash area in Joshua Tree National Park. These surveys identified a sedimentary basin that is fault-controlled. A profile across the Smoke Tree Wash fault zone reveals low gravity values and seismic velocities that coincide with a mapped strand of the Smoke Tree Wash fault. Modeling of the gravity data reveals a basin about 2–2.5 km long and 1 km wide that is roughly centered on this mapped strand, and bounded by inferred faults. According to the gravity model the deepest part of the basin is about 270 m, but this area coincides with low velocities that are not characteristic of typical basement complex rocks. Most likely, the density contrast assumed in the inversion is too high or the uncharacteristically low velocities represent highly fractured or weathered basement rocks, or both. A longer seismic profile extending onto basement outcrops would help differentiate which scenario is more accurate. The seismic velocities also determine the depth to water table along the profile to be about 40–60 m, consistent with water levels measured in water wells near the northern end of the profile.

A Fault Tree Approach to Needs Assessment -- An Overview.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stephens, Kent G.

A "failsafe" technology is presented based on a new unified theory of needs assessment. Basically the paper discusses fault tree analysis as a technique for enhancing the probability of success in any system by analyzing the most likely modes of failure that could occur and then suggesting high priority avoidance strategies for those…

Causation mechanism analysis for haze pollution related to vehicle emission in Guangzhou, China by employing the fault tree approach.

PubMed

Huang, Weiqing; Fan, Hongbo; Qiu, Yongfu; Cheng, Zhiyu; Xu, Pingru; Qian, Yu

2016-05-01

Recently, China has frequently experienced large-scale, severe and persistent haze pollution due to surging urbanization and industrialization and a rapid growth in the number of motor vehicles and energy consumption. The vehicle emission due to the consumption of a large number of fossil fuels is no doubt a critical factor of the haze pollution. This work is focused on the causation mechanism of haze pollution related to the vehicle emission for Guangzhou city by employing the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) method for the first time. With the establishment of the fault tree system of "Haze weather-Vehicle exhausts explosive emission", all of the important risk factors are discussed and identified by using this deductive FTA method. The qualitative and quantitative assessments of the fault tree system are carried out based on the structure, probability and critical importance degree analysis of the risk factors. The study may provide a new simple and effective tool/strategy for the causation mechanism analysis and risk management of haze pollution in China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Divide and Conquer: A Valid Approach for Risk Assessment and Decision Making under Uncertainty for Groundwater-Related Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Vila, X.; de Barros, F.; Bolster, D.; Nowak, W.

2010-12-01

Assessing the potential risk of hydro(geo)logical supply systems to human population is an interdisciplinary field. It relies on the expertise in fields as distant as hydrogeology, medicine, or anthropology, and needs powerful translation concepts to provide decision support and policy making. Reliable health risk estimates need to account for the uncertainties in hydrological, physiological and human behavioral parameters. We propose the use of fault trees to address the task of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and to support related management decisions. Fault trees allow decomposing the assessment of health risk into individual manageable modules, thus tackling a complex system by a structural “Divide and Conquer” approach. The complexity within each module can be chosen individually according to data availability, parsimony, relative importance and stage of analysis. The separation in modules allows for a true inter- and multi-disciplinary approach. This presentation highlights the three novel features of our work: (1) we define failure in terms of risk being above a threshold value, whereas previous studies used auxiliary events such as exceedance of critical concentration levels, (2) we plot an integrated fault tree that handles uncertainty in both hydrological and health components in a unified way, and (3) we introduce a new form of stochastic fault tree that allows to weaken the assumption of independent subsystems that is required by a classical fault tree approach. We illustrate our concept in a simple groundwater-related setting.

A fuzzy decision tree for fault classification.

PubMed

Zio, Enrico; Baraldi, Piero; Popescu, Irina C

2008-02-01

In plant accident management, the control room operators are required to identify the causes of the accident, based on the different patterns of evolution of the monitored process variables thereby developing. This task is often quite challenging, given the large number of process parameters monitored and the intense emotional states under which it is performed. To aid the operators, various techniques of fault classification have been engineered. An important requirement for their practical application is the physical interpretability of the relationships among the process variables underpinning the fault classification. In this view, the present work propounds a fuzzy approach to fault classification, which relies on fuzzy if-then rules inferred from the clustering of available preclassified signal data, which are then organized in a logical and transparent decision tree structure. The advantages offered by the proposed approach are precisely that a transparent fault classification model is mined out of the signal data and that the underlying physical relationships among the process variables are easily interpretable as linguistic if-then rules that can be explicitly visualized in the decision tree structure. The approach is applied to a case study regarding the classification of simulated faults in the feedwater system of a boiling water reactor.

FTC - THE FAULT-TREE COMPILER (SUN VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1994-01-01

FTC, the Fault-Tree Compiler program, is a tool used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault-tree. Five different gate types are allowed in the fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, and M OF N. The high-level input language is easy to understand and use. In addition, the program supports a hierarchical fault tree definition feature which simplifies the tree-description process and reduces execution time. A rigorous error bound is derived for the solution technique. This bound enables the program to supply an answer precisely (within the limits of double precision floating point arithmetic) at a user-specified number of digits accuracy. The program also facilitates sensitivity analysis with respect to any specified parameter of the fault tree such as a component failure rate or a specific event probability by allowing the user to vary one failure rate or the failure probability over a range of values and plot the results. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. Although different solution techniques are utilized on different programs, it is possible to have a common input language. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of programs that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation. The set of programs are: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920); and the FTC fault tree tool (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree. PAWS/STEM and SURE are programs which interpret the same SURE language, but utilize different solution methods. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. SURE, ASSIST, and PAWS/STEM are also offered as a bundle. Please see the abstract for COS-10039/COS-10041, SARA - SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, for pricing details. FTC was originally developed for DEC VAX series computers running VMS and was later ported for use on Sun computers running SunOS. The program is written in PASCAL, ANSI compliant C-language, and FORTRAN 77. The TEMPLATE graphics library is required to obtain graphical output. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of FTC (LAR-14586) is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of FTC (LAR-14922) is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. FTC was developed in 1989 and last updated in 1992. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories. SunOS is a trademark of Sun Microsystems, Inc.

FTC - THE FAULT-TREE COMPILER (VAX VMS VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1994-01-01

FTC, the Fault-Tree Compiler program, is a tool used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault-tree. Five different gate types are allowed in the fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, and M OF N. The high-level input language is easy to understand and use. In addition, the program supports a hierarchical fault tree definition feature which simplifies the tree-description process and reduces execution time. A rigorous error bound is derived for the solution technique. This bound enables the program to supply an answer precisely (within the limits of double precision floating point arithmetic) at a user-specified number of digits accuracy. The program also facilitates sensitivity analysis with respect to any specified parameter of the fault tree such as a component failure rate or a specific event probability by allowing the user to vary one failure rate or the failure probability over a range of values and plot the results. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. Although different solution techniques are utilized on different programs, it is possible to have a common input language. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of programs that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation. The set of programs are: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920); and the FTC fault tree tool (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree. PAWS/STEM and SURE are programs which interpret the same SURE language, but utilize different solution methods. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. SURE, ASSIST, and PAWS/STEM are also offered as a bundle. Please see the abstract for COS-10039/COS-10041, SARA - SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, for pricing details. FTC was originally developed for DEC VAX series computers running VMS and was later ported for use on Sun computers running SunOS. The program is written in PASCAL, ANSI compliant C-language, and FORTRAN 77. The TEMPLATE graphics library is required to obtain graphical output. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of FTC (LAR-14586) is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of FTC (LAR-14922) is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. FTC was developed in 1989 and last updated in 1992. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories. SunOS is a trademark of Sun Microsystems, Inc.

A Fault Tree Approach to Analysis of Behavioral Systems: An Overview.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stephens, Kent G.

Developed at Brigham Young University, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a technique for enhancing the probability of success in any system by analyzing the most likely modes of failure that could occur. It provides a logical, step-by-step description of possible failure events within a system and their interaction--the combinations of potential…

Risk Management in Complex Construction Projects that Apply Renewable Energy Sources: A Case Study of the Realization Phase of the Energis Educational and Research Intelligent Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krechowicz, Maria

2017-10-01

Nowadays, one of the characteristic features of construction industry is an increased complexity of a growing number of projects. Almost each construction project is unique, has its project-specific purpose, its own project structural complexity, owner’s expectations, ground conditions unique to a certain location, and its own dynamics. Failure costs and costs resulting from unforeseen problems in complex construction projects are very high. Project complexity drivers pose many vulnerabilities to a successful completion of a number of projects. This paper discusses the process of effective risk management in complex construction projects in which renewable energy sources were used, on the example of the realization phase of the ENERGIS teaching-laboratory building, from the point of view of DORBUD S.A., its general contractor. This paper suggests a new approach to risk management for complex construction projects in which renewable energy sources were applied. The risk management process was divided into six stages: gathering information, identification of the top, critical project risks resulting from the project complexity, construction of the fault tree for each top, critical risks, logical analysis of the fault tree, quantitative risk assessment applying fuzzy logic and development of risk response strategy. A new methodology for the qualitative and quantitative risk assessment for top, critical risks in complex construction projects was developed. Risk assessment was carried out applying Fuzzy Fault Tree analysis on the example of one top critical risk. Application of the Fuzzy sets theory to the proposed model allowed to decrease uncertainty and eliminate problems with gaining the crisp values of the basic events probability, common during expert risk assessment with the objective to give the exact risk score of each unwanted event probability.

The engine fuel system fault analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yong; Song, Hanqiang; Yang, Changsheng; Zhao, Wei

2017-05-01

For improving the reliability of the engine fuel system, the typical fault factor of the engine fuel system was analyzed from the point view of structure and functional. The fault character was gotten by building the fuel system fault tree. According the utilizing of fault mode effect analysis method (FMEA), several factors of key component fuel regulator was obtained, which include the fault mode, the fault cause, and the fault influences. All of this made foundation for next development of fault diagnosis system.

Fault tree analysis: NiH2 aerospace cells for LEO mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, Glenn C.; Rash, Donald E., Jr.

1992-01-01

The Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is one of several reliability analyses or assessments applied to battery cells to be utilized in typical Electric Power Subsystems for spacecraft in low Earth orbit missions. FTA is generally the process of reviewing and analytically examining a system or equipment in such a way as to emphasize the lower level fault occurrences which directly or indirectly contribute to the major fault or top level event. This qualitative FTA addresses the potential of occurrence for five specific top level events: hydrogen leakage through either discrete leakage paths or through pressure vessel rupture; and four distinct modes of performance degradation - high charge voltage, suppressed discharge voltage, loss of capacity, and high pressure.

Soft error evaluation and vulnerability analysis in Xilinx Zynq-7010 system-on chip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Xuecheng; He, Chaohui; Liu, Shuhuan; Zhang, Yao; Li, Yonghong; Xiong, Ceng; Tan, Pengkang

2016-09-01

Radiation-induced soft errors are an increasingly important threat to the reliability of modern electronic systems. In order to evaluate system-on chip's reliability and soft error, the fault tree analysis method was used in this work. The system fault tree was constructed based on Xilinx Zynq-7010 All Programmable SoC. Moreover, the soft error rates of different components in Zynq-7010 SoC were tested by americium-241 alpha radiation source. Furthermore, some parameters that used to evaluate the system's reliability and safety were calculated using Isograph Reliability Workbench 11.0, such as failure rate, unavailability and mean time to failure (MTTF). According to fault tree analysis for system-on chip, the critical blocks and system reliability were evaluated through the qualitative and quantitative analysis.

Learning from examples - Generation and evaluation of decision trees for software resource analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selby, Richard W.; Porter, Adam A.

1988-01-01

A general solution method for the automatic generation of decision (or classification) trees is investigated. The approach is to provide insights through in-depth empirical characterization and evaluation of decision trees for software resource data analysis. The trees identify classes of objects (software modules) that had high development effort. Sixteen software systems ranging from 3,000 to 112,000 source lines were selected for analysis from a NASA production environment. The collection and analysis of 74 attributes (or metrics), for over 4,700 objects, captured information about the development effort, faults, changes, design style, and implementation style. A total of 9,600 decision trees were automatically generated and evaluated. The trees correctly identified 79.3 percent of the software modules that had high development effort or faults, and the trees generated from the best parameter combinations correctly identified 88.4 percent of the modules on the average.

Decision tree and PCA-based fault diagnosis of rotating machinery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Weixiang; Chen, Jin; Li, Jiaqing

2007-04-01

After analysing the flaws of conventional fault diagnosis methods, data mining technology is introduced to fault diagnosis field, and a new method based on C4.5 decision tree and principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed. In this method, PCA is used to reduce features after data collection, preprocessing and feature extraction. Then, C4.5 is trained by using the samples to generate a decision tree model with diagnosis knowledge. At last the tree model is used to make diagnosis analysis. To validate the method proposed, six kinds of running states (normal or without any defect, unbalance, rotor radial rub, oil whirl, shaft crack and a simultaneous state of unbalance and radial rub), are simulated on Bently Rotor Kit RK4 to test C4.5 and PCA-based method and back-propagation neural network (BPNN). The result shows that C4.5 and PCA-based diagnosis method has higher accuracy and needs less training time than BPNN.

Pipeline synthetic aperture radar data compression utilizing systolic binary tree-searched architecture for vector quantization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Chi-Yung (Inventor); Fang, Wai-Chi (Inventor); Curlander, John C. (Inventor)

1995-01-01

A system for data compression utilizing systolic array architecture for Vector Quantization (VQ) is disclosed for both full-searched and tree-searched. For a tree-searched VQ, the special case of a Binary Tree-Search VQ (BTSVQ) is disclosed with identical Processing Elements (PE) in the array for both a Raw-Codebook VQ (RCVQ) and a Difference-Codebook VQ (DCVQ) algorithm. A fault tolerant system is disclosed which allows a PE that has developed a fault to be bypassed in the array and replaced by a spare at the end of the array, with codebook memory assignment shifted one PE past the faulty PE of the array.

Integration of Advanced Probabilistic Analysis Techniques with Multi-Physics Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cetiner, Mustafa Sacit; none,; Flanagan, George F.

2014-07-30

An integrated simulation platform that couples probabilistic analysis-based tools with model-based simulation tools can provide valuable insights for reactive and proactive responses to plant operating conditions. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the benefits of a partial implementation of the Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Detailed Framework Specification through the coupling of advanced PRA capabilities and accurate multi-physics plant models. Coupling a probabilistic model with a multi-physics model will aid in design, operations, and safety by providing a more accurate understanding of plant behavior. This represents the first attempt at actually integrating these two typesmore » of analyses for a control system used for operations, on a faster than real-time basis. This report documents the development of the basic communication capability to exchange data with the probabilistic model using Reliability Workbench (RWB) and the multi-physics model using Dymola. The communication pathways from injecting a fault (i.e., failing a component) to the probabilistic and multi-physics models were successfully completed. This first version was tested with prototypic models represented in both RWB and Modelica. First, a simple event tree/fault tree (ET/FT) model was created to develop the software code to implement the communication capabilities between the dynamic-link library (dll) and RWB. A program, written in C#, successfully communicates faults to the probabilistic model through the dll. A systems model of the Advanced Liquid-Metal Reactor–Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module (ALMR-PRISM) design developed under another DOE project was upgraded using Dymola to include proper interfaces to allow data exchange with the control application (ConApp). A program, written in C+, successfully communicates faults to the multi-physics model. The results of the example simulation were successfully plotted.« less

Fault tree analysis for system modeling in case of intentional EMI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Genender, E.; Mleczko, M.; Döring, O.; Garbe, H.; Potthast, S.

2011-08-01

The complexity of modern systems on the one hand and the rising threat of intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI) on the other hand increase the necessity for systematical risk analysis. Most of the problems can not be treated deterministically since slight changes in the configuration (source, position, polarization, ...) can dramatically change the outcome of an event. For that purpose, methods known from probabilistic risk analysis can be applied. One of the most common approaches is the fault tree analysis (FTA). The FTA is used to determine the system failure probability and also the main contributors to its failure. In this paper the fault tree analysis is introduced and a possible application of that method is shown using a small computer network as an example. The constraints of this methods are explained and conclusions for further research are drawn.

Effect of Fault Parameter Uncertainties on PSHA explored by Monte Carlo Simulations: A case study for southern Apennines, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinci, A.; Pace, B.

2017-12-01

In this study, we discuss the seismic hazard variability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 475 years return period in the Southern Apennines of Italy. The uncertainty and parametric sensitivity are presented to quantify the impact of the several fault parameters on ground motion predictions for 10% exceedance in 50-year hazard. A time-independent PSHA model is constructed based on the long-term recurrence behavior of seismogenic faults adopting the characteristic earthquake model for those sources capable of rupturing the entire fault segment with a single maximum magnitude. The fault-based source model uses the dimensions and slip rates of mapped fault to develop magnitude-frequency estimates for characteristic earthquakes. Variability of the selected fault parameter is given with a truncated normal random variable distribution presented by standard deviation about a mean value. A Monte Carlo approach, based on the random balanced sampling by logic tree, is used in order to capture the uncertainty in seismic hazard calculations. For generating both uncertainty and sensitivity maps, we perform 200 simulations for each of the fault parameters. The results are synthesized both in frequency-magnitude distribution of modeled faults as well as the different maps: the overall uncertainty maps provide a confidence interval for the PGA values and the parameter uncertainty maps determine the sensitivity of hazard assessment to variability of every logic tree branch. These branches of logic tree, analyzed through the Monte Carlo approach, are maximum magnitudes, fault length, fault width, fault dip and slip rates. The overall variability of these parameters is determined by varying them simultaneously in the hazard calculations while the sensitivity of each parameter to overall variability is determined varying each of the fault parameters while fixing others. However, in this study we do not investigate the sensitivity of mean hazard results to the consideration of different GMPEs. Distribution of possible seismic hazard results is illustrated by 95% confidence factor map, which indicates the dispersion about mean value, and coefficient of variation map, which shows percent variability. The results of our study clearly illustrate the influence of active fault parameters to probabilistic seismic hazard maps.

A novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with VB program to identify and assess the risk of coal dust explosions

PubMed Central

Li, Jia; Wang, Deming; Huang, Zonghou

2017-01-01

Coal dust explosions (CDE) are one of the main threats to the occupational safety of coal miners. Aiming to identify and assess the risk of CDE, this paper proposes a novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with the Visual Basic (VB) program. In this methodology, various potential causes of the CDE are identified and a CDE fault tree is constructed. To overcome drawbacks from the lack of exact probability data for the basic events, fuzzy set theory is employed and the probability data of each basic event is treated as intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In addition, a new approach for calculating the weighting of each expert is also introduced in this paper to reduce the error during the expert elicitation process. Specifically, an in-depth quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree, such as the importance measure of the basic events and the cut sets, and the CDE occurrence probability is given to assess the explosion risk and acquire more details of the CDE. The VB program is applied to simplify the analysis process. A case study and analysis is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method, and some suggestions are given to take preventive measures in advance and avoid CDE accidents. PMID:28793348

Fuzzy fault tree assessment based on improved AHP for fire and explosion accidents for steel oil storage tanks.

PubMed

Shi, Lei; Shuai, Jian; Xu, Kui

2014-08-15

Fire and explosion accidents of steel oil storage tanks (FEASOST) occur occasionally during the petroleum and chemical industry production and storage processes and often have devastating impact on lives, the environment and property. To contribute towards the development of a quantitative approach for assessing the occurrence probability of FEASOST, a fault tree of FEASOST is constructed that identifies various potential causes. Traditional fault tree analysis (FTA) can achieve quantitative evaluation if the failure data of all of the basic events (BEs) are available, which is almost impossible due to the lack of detailed data, as well as other uncertainties. This paper makes an attempt to perform FTA of FEASOST by a hybrid application between an expert elicitation based improved analysis hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy set theory, and the occurrence possibility of FEASOST is estimated for an oil depot in China. A comparison between statistical data and calculated data using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) based on traditional and improved AHP is also made. Sensitivity and importance analysis has been performed to identify the most crucial BEs leading to FEASOST that will provide insights into how managers should focus effective mitigation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with VB program to identify and assess the risk of coal dust explosions.

PubMed

Wang, Hetang; Li, Jia; Wang, Deming; Huang, Zonghou

2017-01-01

Coal dust explosions (CDE) are one of the main threats to the occupational safety of coal miners. Aiming to identify and assess the risk of CDE, this paper proposes a novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with the Visual Basic (VB) program. In this methodology, various potential causes of the CDE are identified and a CDE fault tree is constructed. To overcome drawbacks from the lack of exact probability data for the basic events, fuzzy set theory is employed and the probability data of each basic event is treated as intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In addition, a new approach for calculating the weighting of each expert is also introduced in this paper to reduce the error during the expert elicitation process. Specifically, an in-depth quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree, such as the importance measure of the basic events and the cut sets, and the CDE occurrence probability is given to assess the explosion risk and acquire more details of the CDE. The VB program is applied to simplify the analysis process. A case study and analysis is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method, and some suggestions are given to take preventive measures in advance and avoid CDE accidents.

Graphical workstation capability for reliability modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Koppen, Sandra V.; Haley, Pamela J.

1992-01-01

In addition to computational capabilities, software tools for estimating the reliability of fault-tolerant digital computer systems must also provide a means of interfacing with the user. Described here is the new graphical interface capability of the hybrid automated reliability predictor (HARP), a software package that implements advanced reliability modeling techniques. The graphics oriented (GO) module provides the user with a graphical language for modeling system failure modes through the selection of various fault-tree gates, including sequence-dependency gates, or by a Markov chain. By using this graphical input language, a fault tree becomes a convenient notation for describing a system. In accounting for any sequence dependencies, HARP converts the fault-tree notation to a complex stochastic process that is reduced to a Markov chain, which it can then solve for system reliability. The graphics capability is available for use on an IBM-compatible PC, a Sun, and a VAX workstation. The GO module is written in the C programming language and uses the graphical kernal system (GKS) standard for graphics implementation. The PC, VAX, and Sun versions of the HARP GO module are currently in beta-testing stages.

Fault tree analysis for urban flooding.

PubMed

ten Veldhuis, J A E; Clemens, F H L R; van Gelder, P H A J M

2009-01-01

Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk generally focus on heavy storm events as the principal cause of flooding. Conversely, fault tree analysis is a technique that aims at modelling all potential causes of flooding. It quantifies both overall flood probability and relative contributions of individual causes of flooding. This paper presents a fault model for urban flooding and an application to the case of Haarlem, a city of 147,000 inhabitants. Data from a complaint register, rainfall gauges and hydrodynamic model calculations are used to quantify probabilities of basic events in the fault tree. This results in a flood probability of 0.78/week for Haarlem. It is shown that gully pot blockages contribute to 79% of flood incidents, whereas storm events contribute only 5%. This implies that for this case more efficient gully pot cleaning is a more effective strategy to reduce flood probability than enlarging drainage system capacity. Whether this is also the most cost-effective strategy can only be decided after risk assessment has been complemented with a quantification of consequences of both types of events. To do this will be the next step in this study.

Interoperability-oriented Integration of Failure Knowledge into Functional Knowledge and Knowledge Transformation based on Concepts Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koji, Yusuke; Kitamura, Yoshinobu; Kato, Yoshikiyo; Tsutsui, Yoshio; Mizoguchi, Riichiro

In conceptual design, it is important to develop functional structures which reflect the rich experience in the knowledge from previous design failures. Especially, if a designer learns possible abnormal behaviors from a previous design failure, he or she can add an additional function which prevents such abnormal behaviors and faults. To do this, it is a crucial issue to share such knowledge about possible faulty phenomena and how to cope with them. In fact, a part of such knowledge is described in FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) sheets, function structure models for systematic design and fault trees for FTA (Fault Tree Analysis).

Failure analysis of energy storage spring in automobile composite brake chamber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Zai; Wei, Qing; Hu, Xiaofeng

2015-02-01

This paper set energy storage spring of parking brake cavity, part of automobile composite brake chamber, as the research object. And constructed the fault tree model of energy storage spring which caused parking brake failure based on the fault tree analysis method. Next, the parking brake failure model of energy storage spring was established by analyzing the working principle of composite brake chamber. Finally, the data of working load and the push rod stroke measured by comprehensive test-bed valve was used to validate the failure model above. The experimental result shows that the failure model can distinguish whether the energy storage spring is faulted.

A fast bottom-up algorithm for computing the cut sets of noncoherent fault trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corynen, G.C.

1987-11-01

An efficient procedure for finding the cut sets of large fault trees has been developed. Designed to address coherent or noncoherent systems, dependent events, shared or common-cause events, the method - called SHORTCUT - is based on a fast algorithm for transforming a noncoherent tree into a quasi-coherent tree (COHERE), and on a new algorithm for reducing cut sets (SUBSET). To assure sufficient clarity and precision, the procedure is discussed in the language of simple sets, which is also developed in this report. Although the new method has not yet been fully implemented on the computer, we report theoretical worst-casemore » estimates of its computational complexity. 12 refs., 10 figs.« less

Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMC) in Microelectronics.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-02-01

Fault Tree Analysis", System Saftey Symposium, June 8-9, 1965, Seattle: The Boeing Company . 12. Fussell, J.B., "Fault Tree Analysis-Concepts and...procedure for assessing EMC in microelectronics and for applying DD, 1473 EOiTO OP I, NOV6 IS OESOL.ETE UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS...CRITERIA 2.1 Background 2 2.2 The Probabilistic Nature of EMC 2 2.3 The Probabilistic Approach 5 2.4 The Compatibility Factor 6 3 APPLYING PROBABILISTIC

A graphical language for reliability model generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, Sandra V.; Bavuso, Salvatore J.; Haley, Pamela J.

1990-01-01

A graphical interface capability of the hybrid automated reliability predictor (HARP) is described. The graphics-oriented (GO) module provides the user with a graphical language for modeling system failure modes through the selection of various fault tree gates, including sequence dependency gates, or by a Markov chain. With this graphical input language, a fault tree becomes a convenient notation for describing a system. In accounting for any sequence dependencies, HARP converts the fault-tree notation to a complex stochastic process that is reduced to a Markov chain which it can then solve for system reliability. The graphics capability is available for use on an IBM-compatible PC, a Sun, and a VAX workstation. The GO module is written in the C programming language and uses the Graphical Kernel System (GKS) standard for graphics implementation. The PC, VAX, and Sun versions of the HARP GO module are currently in beta-testing.

Reliability analysis method of a solar array by using fault tree analysis and fuzzy reasoning Petri net

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jianing; Yan, Shaoze; Xie, Liyang

2011-12-01

To address the impact of solar array anomalies, it is important to perform analysis of the solar array reliability. This paper establishes the fault tree analysis (FTA) and fuzzy reasoning Petri net (FRPN) models of a solar array mechanical system and analyzes reliability to find mechanisms of the solar array fault. The index final truth degree (FTD) and cosine matching function (CMF) are employed to resolve the issue of how to evaluate the importance and influence of different faults. So an improvement reliability analysis method is developed by means of the sorting of FTD and CMF. An example is analyzed using the proposed method. The analysis results show that harsh thermal environment and impact caused by particles in space are the most vital causes of the solar array fault. Furthermore, other fault modes and the corresponding improvement methods are discussed. The results reported in this paper could be useful for the spacecraft designers, particularly, in the process of redesigning the solar array and scheduling its reliability growth plan.

Fault detection and diagnosis of induction motors using motor current signature analysis and a hybrid FMM-CART model.

PubMed

Seera, Manjeevan; Lim, Chee Peng; Ishak, Dahaman; Singh, Harapajan

2012-01-01

In this paper, a novel approach to detect and classify comprehensive fault conditions of induction motors using a hybrid fuzzy min-max (FMM) neural network and classification and regression tree (CART) is proposed. The hybrid model, known as FMM-CART, exploits the advantages of both FMM and CART for undertaking data classification and rule extraction problems. A series of real experiments is conducted, whereby the motor current signature analysis method is applied to form a database comprising stator current signatures under different motor conditions. The signal harmonics from the power spectral density are extracted as discriminative input features for fault detection and classification with FMM-CART. A comprehensive list of induction motor fault conditions, viz., broken rotor bars, unbalanced voltages, stator winding faults, and eccentricity problems, has been successfully classified using FMM-CART with good accuracy rates. The results are comparable, if not better, than those reported in the literature. Useful explanatory rules in the form of a decision tree are also elicited from FMM-CART to analyze and understand different fault conditions of induction motors.

Development of a methodology for assessing the safety of embedded software systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garrett, C. J.; Guarro, S. B.; Apostolakis, G. E.

1993-01-01

A Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) based on an integrated approach to modeling and analyzing the behavior of software-driven embedded systems for assessing and verifying reliability and safety is discussed. DFM is based on an extension of the Logic Flowgraph Methodology to incorporate state transition models. System models which express the logic of the system in terms of causal relationships between physical variables and temporal characteristics of software modules are analyzed to determine how a certain state can be reached. This is done by developing timed fault trees which take the form of logical combinations of static trees relating the system parameters at different point in time. The resulting information concerning the hardware and software states can be used to eliminate unsafe execution paths and identify testing criteria for safety critical software functions.

An approach for automated fault diagnosis based on a fuzzy decision tree and boundary analysis of a reconstructed phase space.

PubMed

Aydin, Ilhan; Karakose, Mehmet; Akin, Erhan

2014-03-01

Although reconstructed phase space is one of the most powerful methods for analyzing a time series, it can fail in fault diagnosis of an induction motor when the appropriate pre-processing is not performed. Therefore, boundary analysis based a new feature extraction method in phase space is proposed for diagnosis of induction motor faults. The proposed approach requires the measurement of one phase current signal to construct the phase space representation. Each phase space is converted into an image, and the boundary of each image is extracted by a boundary detection algorithm. A fuzzy decision tree has been designed to detect broken rotor bars and broken connector faults. The results indicate that the proposed approach has a higher recognition rate than other methods on the same dataset. © 2013 ISA Published by ISA All rights reserved.

The P-Mesh: A Commodity-based Scalable Network Architecture for Clusters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nitzberg, Bill; Kuszmaul, Chris; Stockdale, Ian; Becker, Jeff; Jiang, John; Wong, Parkson; Tweten, David (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

We designed a new network architecture, the P-Mesh which combines the scalability and fault resilience of a torus with the performance of a switch. We compare the scalability, performance, and cost of the hub, switch, torus, tree, and P-Mesh architectures. The latter three are capable of scaling to thousands of nodes, however, the torus has severe performance limitations with that many processors. The tree and P-Mesh have similar latency, bandwidth, and bisection bandwidth, but the P-Mesh outperforms the switch architecture (a lower bound for tree performance) on 16-node NAB Parallel Benchmark tests by up to 23%, and costs 40% less. Further, the P-Mesh has better fault resilience characteristics. The P-Mesh architecture trades increased management overhead for lower cost, and is a good bridging technology while the price of tree uplinks is expensive.

The 1992 Landers earthquake sequence; seismological observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Egill Hauksson,; Jones, Lucile M.; Hutton, Kate; Eberhart-Phillips, Donna

1993-01-01

The (MW6.1, 7.3, 6.2) 1992 Landers earthquakes began on April 23 with the MW6.1 1992 Joshua Tree preshock and form the most substantial earthquake sequence to occur in California in the last 40 years. This sequence ruptured almost 100 km of both surficial and concealed faults and caused aftershocks over an area 100 km wide by 180 km long. The faulting was predominantly strike slip and three main events in the sequence had unilateral rupture to the north away from the San Andreas fault. The MW6.1 Joshua Tree preshock at 33°N58′ and 116°W19′ on 0451 UT April 23 was preceded by a tightly clustered foreshock sequence (M≤4.6) beginning 2 hours before the mainshock and followed by a large aftershock sequence with more than 6000 aftershocks. The aftershocks extended along a northerly trend from about 10 km north of the San Andreas fault, northwest of Indio, to the east-striking Pinto Mountain fault. The Mw7.3 Landers mainshock occurred at 34°N13′ and 116°W26′ at 1158 UT, June 28, 1992, and was preceded for 12 hours by 25 small M≤3 earthquakes at the mainshock epicenter. The distribution of more than 20,000 aftershocks, analyzed in this study, and short-period focal mechanisms illuminate a complex sequence of faulting. The aftershocks extend 60 km to the north of the mainshock epicenter along a system of at least five different surficial faults, and 40 km to the south, crossing the Pinto Mountain fault through the Joshua Tree aftershock zone towards the San Andreas fault near Indio. The rupture initiated in the depth range of 3–6 km, similar to previous M∼5 earthquakes in the region, although the maximum depth of aftershocks is about 15 km. The mainshock focal mechanism showed right-lateral strike-slip faulting with a strike of N10°W on an almost vertical fault. The rupture formed an arclike zone well defined by both surficial faulting and aftershocks, with more westerly faulting to the north. This change in strike is accomplished by jumping across dilational jogs connecting surficial faults with strikes rotated progressively to the west. A 20-km-long linear cluster of aftershocks occurred 10–20 km north of Barstow, or 30–40 km north of the end of the mainshock rupture. The most prominent off-fault aftershock cluster occurred 30 km to the west of the Landers mainshock. The largest aftershock was within this cluster, the Mw6.2 Big Bear aftershock occurring at 34°N10′ and 116°W49′ at 1505 UT June 28. It exhibited left-lateral strike-slip faulting on a northeast striking and steeply dipping plane. The Big Bear aftershocks form a linear trend extending 20 km to the northeast with a scattered distribution to the north. The Landers mainshock occurred near the southernmost extent of the Eastern California Shear Zone, an 80-km-wide, more than 400-km-long zone of deformation. This zone extends into the Death Valley region and accommodates about 10 to 20% of the plate motion between the Pacific and North American plates. The Joshua Tree preshock, its aftershocks, and Landers aftershocks form a previously missing link that connects the Eastern California Shear Zone to the southern San Andreas fault.

Stress/strain changes and triggered seismicity following the MW7.3 Landers, California, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.

1996-01-01

Calculations of dynamic stresses and strains, constrained by broadband seismograms, are used to investigate their role in generating the remotely triggered seismicity that followed the June 28, 1992, MW7.3 Landers, California earthquake. I compare straingrams and dynamic Coulomb failure functions calculated for the Landers earthquake at sites that did experience triggered seismicity with those at sites that did not. Bounds on triggering thresholds are obtained from analysis of dynamic strain spectra calculated for the Landers and MW,6.1 Joshua Tree, California, earthquakes at various sites, combined with results of static strain investigations by others. I interpret three principal results of this study with those of a companion study by Gomberg and Davis [this issue]. First, the dynamic elastic stress changes themselves cannot explain the spatial distribution of triggered seismicity, particularly the lack of triggered activity along the San Andreas fault system. In addition to the requirement to exceed a Coulomb failure stress level, this result implies the need to invoke and satisfy the requirements of appropriate slip instability theory. Second, results of this study are consistent with the existence of frequency- or rate-dependent stress/strain triggering thresholds, inferred from the companion study and interpreted in terms of earthquake initiation involving a competition of processes, one promoting failure and the other inhibiting it. Such competition is also part of relevant instability theories. Third, the triggering threshold must vary from site to site, suggesting that the potential for triggering strongly depends on site characteristics and response. The lack of triggering along the San Andreas fault system may be correlated with the advanced maturity of its fault gouge zone; the strains from the Landers earthquake were either insufficient to exceed its larger critical slip distance or some other critical failure parameter; or the faults failed stably as aseismic creep events. Variations in the triggering threshold at sites of triggered seismicity may be attributed to variations in gouge zone development and properties. Finally, these interpretations provide ready explanations for the time delays between the Landers earthquake and the triggered events.

Reliability analysis of the solar array based on Fault Tree Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jianing, Wu; Shaoze, Yan

2011-07-01

The solar array is an important device used in the spacecraft, which influences the quality of in-orbit operation of the spacecraft and even the launches. This paper analyzes the reliability of the mechanical system and certifies the most vital subsystem of the solar array. The fault tree analysis (FTA) model is established according to the operating process of the mechanical system based on DFH-3 satellite; the logical expression of the top event is obtained by Boolean algebra and the reliability of the solar array is calculated. The conclusion shows that the hinges are the most vital links between the solar arrays. By analyzing the structure importance(SI) of the hinge's FTA model, some fatal causes, including faults of the seal, insufficient torque of the locking spring, temperature in space, and friction force, can be identified. Damage is the initial stage of the fault, so limiting damage is significant to prevent faults. Furthermore, recommendations for improving reliability associated with damage limitation are discussed, which can be used for the redesigning of the solar array and the reliability growth planning.

Fault tree safety analysis of a large Li/SOCl(sub)2 spacecraft battery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Uy, O. Manuel; Maurer, R. H.

1987-01-01

The results of the safety fault tree analysis on the eight module, 576 F cell Li/SOCl2 battery on the spacecraft and in the integration and test environment prior to launch on the ground are presented. The analysis showed that with the right combination of blocking diodes, electrical fuses, thermal fuses, thermal switches, cell balance, cell vents, and battery module vents the probability of a single cell or a 72 cell module exploding can be reduced to .000001, essentially the probability due to explosion for unexplained reasons.

Three-dimensional curved grid finite-difference modelling for non-planar rupture dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhenguo; Zhang, Wei; Chen, Xiaofei

2014-11-01

In this study, we present a new method for simulating the 3-D dynamic rupture process occurring on a non-planar fault. The method is based on the curved-grid finite-difference method (CG-FDM) proposed by Zhang & Chen and Zhang et al. to simulate the propagation of seismic waves in media with arbitrary irregular surface topography. While keeping the advantages of conventional FDM, that is computational efficiency and easy implementation, the CG-FDM also is flexible in modelling the complex fault model by using general curvilinear grids, and thus is able to model the rupture dynamics of a fault with complex geometry, such as oblique dipping fault, non-planar fault, fault with step-over, fault branching, even if irregular topography exists. The accuracy and robustness of this new method have been validated by comparing with the previous results of Day et al., and benchmarks for rupture dynamics simulations. Finally, two simulations of rupture dynamics with complex fault geometry, that is a non-planar fault and a fault rupturing a free surface with topography, are presented. A very interesting phenomenon was observed that topography can weaken the tendency for supershear transition to occur when rupture breaks out at a free surface. Undoubtedly, this new method provides an effective, at least an alternative, tool to simulate the rupture dynamics of a complex non-planar fault, and can be applied to model the rupture dynamics of a real earthquake with complex geometry.

Nuclear Power Plant Cyber Security Discrete Dynamic Event Tree Analysis (LDRD 17-0958) FY17 Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wheeler, Timothy A.; Denman, Matthew R.; Williams, R. A.

Instrumentation and control of nuclear power is transforming from analog to modern digital assets. These control systems perform key safety and security functions. This transformation is occurring in new plant designs as well as in the existing fleet of plants as the operation of those plants is extended to 60 years. This transformation introduces new and unknown issues involving both digital asset induced safety issues and security issues. Traditional nuclear power risk assessment tools and cyber security assessment methods have not been modified or developed to address the unique nature of cyber failure modes and of cyber security threat vulnerabilities.more » iii This Lab-Directed Research and Development project has developed a dynamic cyber-risk in- formed tool to facilitate the analysis of unique cyber failure modes and the time sequencing of cyber faults, both malicious and non-malicious, and impose those cyber exploits and cyber faults onto a nuclear power plant accident sequence simulator code to assess how cyber exploits and cyber faults could interact with a plants digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) system and defeat or circumvent a plants cyber security controls. This was achieved by coupling an existing Sandia National Laboratories nuclear accident dynamic simulator code with a cyber emulytics code to demonstrate real-time simulation of cyber exploits and their impact on automatic DI&C responses. Studying such potential time-sequenced cyber-attacks and their risks (i.e., the associated impact and the associated degree of difficulty to achieve the attack vector) on accident management establishes a technical risk informed framework for developing effective cyber security controls for nuclear power.« less

Intelligent classifier for dynamic fault patterns based on hidden Markov model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Bo; Feng, Yuguang; Yu, Jinsong

2006-11-01

It's difficult to build precise mathematical models for complex engineering systems because of the complexity of the structure and dynamics characteristics. Intelligent fault diagnosis introduces artificial intelligence and works in a different way without building the analytical mathematical model of a diagnostic object, so it's a practical approach to solve diagnostic problems of complex systems. This paper presents an intelligent fault diagnosis method, an integrated fault-pattern classifier based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM). This classifier consists of dynamic time warping (DTW) algorithm, self-organizing feature mapping (SOFM) network and Hidden Markov Model. First, after dynamic observation vector in measuring space is processed by DTW, the error vector including the fault feature of being tested system is obtained. Then a SOFM network is used as a feature extractor and vector quantization processor. Finally, fault diagnosis is realized by fault patterns classifying with the Hidden Markov Model classifier. The importing of dynamic time warping solves the problem of feature extracting from dynamic process vectors of complex system such as aeroengine, and makes it come true to diagnose complex system by utilizing dynamic process information. Simulating experiments show that the diagnosis model is easy to extend, and the fault pattern classifier is efficient and is convenient to the detecting and diagnosing of new faults.

Reliability Analysis of Main-axis Control System of the Equatorial Antarctica Astronomical Telescope Based on Fault Tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LI, Y.; Yang, S. H.

2017-05-01

The Antarctica astronomical telescopes work chronically on the top of the unattended South Pole, and they have only one chance to maintain every year. Due to the complexity of the optical, mechanical, and electrical systems, the telescopes are hard to be maintained and need multi-tasker expedition teams, which means an excessive awareness is essential for the reliability of the Antarctica telescopes. Based on the fault mechanism and fault mode of the main-axis control system for the equatorial Antarctica astronomical telescope AST3-3 (Antarctic Schmidt Telescopes 3-3), the method of fault tree analysis is introduced in this article, and we obtains the importance degree of the top event from the importance degree of the bottom event structure. From the above results, the hidden problems and weak links can be effectively found out, which will indicate the direction for promoting the stability of the system and optimizing the design of the system.

Accounting for Fault Roughness in Pseudo-Dynamic Ground-Motion Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P. Martin; Galis, Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Vyas, Jagdish C.; Dunham, Eric M.

2017-09-01

Geological faults comprise large-scale segmentation and small-scale roughness. These multi-scale geometrical complexities determine the dynamics of the earthquake rupture process, and therefore affect the radiated seismic wavefield. In this study, we examine how different parameterizations of fault roughness lead to variability in the rupture evolution and the resulting near-fault ground motions. Rupture incoherence naturally induced by fault roughness generates high-frequency radiation that follows an ω-2 decay in displacement amplitude spectra. Because dynamic rupture simulations are computationally expensive, we test several kinematic source approximations designed to emulate the observed dynamic behavior. When simplifying the rough-fault geometry, we find that perturbations in local moment tensor orientation are important, while perturbations in local source location are not. Thus, a planar fault can be assumed if the local strike, dip, and rake are maintained. We observe that dynamic rake angle variations are anti-correlated with the local dip angles. Testing two parameterizations of dynamically consistent Yoffe-type source-time function, we show that the seismic wavefield of the approximated kinematic ruptures well reproduces the radiated seismic waves of the complete dynamic source process. This finding opens a new avenue for an improved pseudo-dynamic source characterization that captures the effects of fault roughness on earthquake rupture evolution. By including also the correlations between kinematic source parameters, we outline a new pseudo-dynamic rupture modeling approach for broadband ground-motion simulation.

Fault tree analysis of most common rolling bearing tribological failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vencl, Aleksandar; Gašić, Vlada; Stojanović, Blaža

2017-02-01

Wear as a tribological process has a major influence on the reliability and life of rolling bearings. Field examinations of bearing failures due to wear indicate possible causes and point to the necessary measurements for wear reduction or elimination. Wear itself is a very complex process initiated by the action of different mechanisms, and can be manifested by different wear types which are often related. However, the dominant type of wear can be approximately determined. The paper presents the classification of most common bearing damages according to the dominant wear type, i.e. abrasive wear, adhesive wear, surface fatigue wear, erosive wear, fretting wear and corrosive wear. The wear types are correlated with the terms used in ISO 15243 standard. Each wear type is illustrated with an appropriate photograph, and for each wear type, appropriate description of causes and manifestations is presented. Possible causes of rolling bearing failure are used for the fault tree analysis (FTA). It was performed to determine the root causes for bearing failures. The constructed fault tree diagram for rolling bearing failure can be useful tool for maintenance engineers.

Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry using expert elicitation.

PubMed

Renjith, V R; Madhu, G; Nayagam, V Lakshmana Gomathi; Bhasi, A B

2010-11-15

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identification and quantification of these hazards related to chemical industries. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an established technique in hazard identification. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. This paper outlines the estimation of the probability of release of chlorine from storage and filling facility of chlor-alkali industry using FTA. An attempt has also been made to arrive at the probability of chlorine release using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic technique for Indian conditions. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor involved in expert elicitation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A dynamic integrated fault diagnosis method for power transformers.

PubMed

Gao, Wensheng; Bai, Cuifen; Liu, Tong

2015-01-01

In order to diagnose transformer fault efficiently and accurately, a dynamic integrated fault diagnosis method based on Bayesian network is proposed in this paper. First, an integrated fault diagnosis model is established based on the causal relationship among abnormal working conditions, failure modes, and failure symptoms of transformers, aimed at obtaining the most possible failure mode. And then considering the evidence input into the diagnosis model is gradually acquired and the fault diagnosis process in reality is multistep, a dynamic fault diagnosis mechanism is proposed based on the integrated fault diagnosis model. Different from the existing one-step diagnosis mechanism, it includes a multistep evidence-selection process, which gives the most effective diagnostic test to be performed in next step. Therefore, it can reduce unnecessary diagnostic tests and improve the accuracy and efficiency of diagnosis. Finally, the dynamic integrated fault diagnosis method is applied to actual cases, and the validity of this method is verified.

A Dynamic Integrated Fault Diagnosis Method for Power Transformers

PubMed Central

Gao, Wensheng; Liu, Tong

2015-01-01

In order to diagnose transformer fault efficiently and accurately, a dynamic integrated fault diagnosis method based on Bayesian network is proposed in this paper. First, an integrated fault diagnosis model is established based on the causal relationship among abnormal working conditions, failure modes, and failure symptoms of transformers, aimed at obtaining the most possible failure mode. And then considering the evidence input into the diagnosis model is gradually acquired and the fault diagnosis process in reality is multistep, a dynamic fault diagnosis mechanism is proposed based on the integrated fault diagnosis model. Different from the existing one-step diagnosis mechanism, it includes a multistep evidence-selection process, which gives the most effective diagnostic test to be performed in next step. Therefore, it can reduce unnecessary diagnostic tests and improve the accuracy and efficiency of diagnosis. Finally, the dynamic integrated fault diagnosis method is applied to actual cases, and the validity of this method is verified. PMID:25685841

Development and validation of techniques for improving software dependability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, John C.

1992-01-01

A collection of document abstracts are presented on the topic of improving software dependability through NASA grant NAG-1-1123. Specific topics include: modeling of error detection; software inspection; test cases; Magnetic Stereotaxis System safety specifications and fault trees; and injection of synthetic faults into software.

Ground-motion signature of dynamic ruptures on rough faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P. Martin; Galis, Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Vyas, Jagdish C.

2016-04-01

Natural earthquakes occur on faults characterized by large-scale segmentation and small-scale roughness. This multi-scale geometrical complexity controls the dynamic rupture process, and hence strongly affects the radiated seismic waves and near-field shaking. For a fault system with given segmentation, the question arises what are the conditions for producing large-magnitude multi-segment ruptures, as opposed to smaller single-segment events. Similarly, for variable degrees of roughness, ruptures may be arrested prematurely or may break the entire fault. In addition, fault roughness induces rupture incoherence that determines the level of high-frequency radiation. Using HPC-enabled dynamic-rupture simulations, we generate physically self-consistent rough-fault earthquake scenarios (M~6.8) and their associated near-source seismic radiation. Because these computations are too expensive to be conducted routinely for simulation-based seismic hazard assessment, we thrive to develop an effective pseudo-dynamic source characterization that produces (almost) the same ground-motion characteristics. Therefore, we examine how variable degrees of fault roughness affect rupture properties and the seismic wavefield, and develop a planar-fault kinematic source representation that emulates the observed dynamic behaviour. We propose an effective workflow for improved pseudo-dynamic source modelling that incorporates rough-fault effects and its associated high-frequency radiation in broadband ground-motion computation for simulation-based seismic hazard assessment.

Rupture Dynamics and Seismic Radiation on Rough Faults for Simulation-Based PSHA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P. M.; Galis, M.; Thingbaijam, K. K. S.; Vyas, J. C.; Dunham, E. M.

2017-12-01

Simulation-based ground-motion predictions may augment PSHA studies in data-poor regions or provide additional shaking estimations, incl. seismic waveforms, for critical facilities. Validation and calibration of such simulation approaches, based on observations and GMPE's, is important for engineering applications, while seismologists push to include the precise physics of the earthquake rupture process and seismic wave propagation in 3D heterogeneous Earth. Geological faults comprise both large-scale segmentation and small-scale roughness that determine the dynamics of the earthquake rupture process and its radiated seismic wavefield. We investigate how different parameterizations of fractal fault roughness affect the rupture evolution and resulting near-fault ground motions. Rupture incoherence induced by fault roughness generates realistic ω-2 decay for high-frequency displacement amplitude spectra. Waveform characteristics and GMPE-based comparisons corroborate that these rough-fault rupture simulations generate realistic synthetic seismogram for subsequent engineering application. Since dynamic rupture simulations are computationally expensive, we develop kinematic approximations that emulate the observed dynamics. Simplifying the rough-fault geometry, we find that perturbations in local moment tensor orientation are important, while perturbations in local source location are not. Thus, a planar fault can be assumed if the local strike, dip, and rake are maintained. The dynamic rake angle variations are anti-correlated with local dip angles. Based on a dynamically consistent Yoffe source-time function, we show that the seismic wavefield of the approximated kinematic rupture well reproduces the seismic radiation of the full dynamic source process. Our findings provide an innovative pseudo-dynamic source characterization that captures fault roughness effects on rupture dynamics. Including the correlations between kinematic source parameters, we present a new pseudo-dynamic rupture modeling approach for computing broadband ground-motion time-histories for simulation-based PSHA

Off-fault plasticity in three-dimensional dynamic rupture simulations using a modal Discontinuous Galerkin method on unstructured meshes: Implementation, verification, and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wollherr, Stephanie; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Uphoff, Carsten

2018-05-01

The dynamics and potential size of earthquakes depend crucially on rupture transfers between adjacent fault segments. To accurately describe earthquake source dynamics, numerical models can account for realistic fault geometries and rheologies such as nonlinear inelastic processes off the slip interface. We present implementation, verification, and application of off-fault Drucker-Prager plasticity in the open source software SeisSol (www.seissol.org). SeisSol is based on an arbitrary high-order derivative modal Discontinuous Galerkin (ADER-DG) method using unstructured, tetrahedral meshes specifically suited for complex geometries. Two implementation approaches are detailed, modelling plastic failure either employing sub-elemental quadrature points or switching to nodal basis coefficients. At fine fault discretizations the nodal basis approach is up to 6 times more efficient in terms of computational costs while yielding comparable accuracy. Both methods are verified in community benchmark problems and by three dimensional numerical h- and p-refinement studies with heterogeneous initial stresses. We observe no spectral convergence for on-fault quantities with respect to a given reference solution, but rather discuss a limitation to low-order convergence for heterogeneous 3D dynamic rupture problems. For simulations including plasticity, a high fault resolution may be less crucial than commonly assumed, due to the regularization of peak slip rate and an increase of the minimum cohesive zone width. In large-scale dynamic rupture simulations based on the 1992 Landers earthquake, we observe high rupture complexity including reverse slip, direct branching, and dynamic triggering. The spatio-temporal distribution of rupture transfers are altered distinctively by plastic energy absorption, correlated with locations of geometrical fault complexity. Computational cost increases by 7% when accounting for off-fault plasticity in the demonstrating application. Our results imply that the combination of fully 3D dynamic modelling, complex fault geometries, and off-fault plastic yielding is important to realistically capture dynamic rupture transfers in natural fault systems.

Survey of critical failure events in on-chip interconnect by fault tree analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokogawa, Shinji; Kunii, Kyousuke

2018-07-01

In this paper, a framework based on reliability physics is proposed for adopting fault tree analysis (FTA) to the on-chip interconnect system of a semiconductor. By integrating expert knowledge and experience regarding the possibilities of failure on basic events, critical issues of on-chip interconnect reliability will be evaluated by FTA. In particular, FTA is used to identify the minimal cut sets with high risk priority. Critical events affecting the on-chip interconnect reliability are identified and discussed from the viewpoint of long-term reliability assessment. The moisture impact is evaluated as an external event.

An Intelligent Gear Fault Diagnosis Methodology Using a Complex Wavelet Enhanced Convolutional Neural Network.

PubMed

Sun, Weifang; Yao, Bin; Zeng, Nianyin; Chen, Binqiang; He, Yuchao; Cao, Xincheng; He, Wangpeng

2017-07-12

As a typical example of large and complex mechanical systems, rotating machinery is prone to diversified sorts of mechanical faults. Among these faults, one of the prominent causes of malfunction is generated in gear transmission chains. Although they can be collected via vibration signals, the fault signatures are always submerged in overwhelming interfering contents. Therefore, identifying the critical fault's characteristic signal is far from an easy task. In order to improve the recognition accuracy of a fault's characteristic signal, a novel intelligent fault diagnosis method is presented. In this method, a dual-tree complex wavelet transform (DTCWT) is employed to acquire the multiscale signal's features. In addition, a convolutional neural network (CNN) approach is utilized to automatically recognise a fault feature from the multiscale signal features. The experiment results of the recognition for gear faults show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method, especially in the gear's weak fault features.

PAWS/STEM - PADE APPROXIMATION WITH SCALING AND SCALED TAYLOR EXPONENTIAL MATRIX (VAX VMS VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1994-01-01

Traditional fault-tree techniques for analyzing the reliability of large, complex systems fail to model the dynamic reconfiguration capabilities of modern computer systems. Markov models, on the other hand, can describe fault-recovery (via system reconfiguration) as well as fault-occurrence. The Pade Approximation with Scaling (PAWS) and Scaled Taylor Exponential Matrix (STEM) programs provide a flexible, user-friendly, language-based interface for the creation and evaluation of Markov models describing the behavior of fault-tolerant reconfigurable computer systems. PAWS and STEM produce exact solutions for the probability of system failure and provide a conservative estimate of the number of significant digits in the solution. The calculation of the probability of entering a death state of a Markov model (representing system failure) requires the solution of a set of coupled differential equations. Because of the large disparity between the rates of fault arrivals and system recoveries, Markov models of fault-tolerant architectures inevitably lead to numerically stiff differential equations. Both PAWS and STEM have the capability to solve numerically stiff models. These complementary programs use separate methods to determine the matrix exponential in the solution of the model's system of differential equations. In general, PAWS is better suited to evaluate small and dense models. STEM operates at lower precision, but works faster than PAWS for larger models. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. Although different solution techniques are utilized on different programs, it is possible to have a common input language. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of programs that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation. The set of programs are: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920); and the FTC fault tree tool (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree. PAWS/STEM and SURE are programs which interpret the same SURE language, but utilize different solution methods. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. SURE, ASSIST, and PAWS/STEM are also offered as a bundle. Please see the abstract for COS-10039/COS-10041, SARA - SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, for pricing details. PAWS/STEM was originally developed for DEC VAX series computers running VMS and was later ported for use on Sun computers running SunOS. The package is written in PASCAL, ANSI compliant C-language, and FORTRAN 77. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of PAWS/STEM (LAR-14165) is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of PAWS/STEM (LAR-14920) is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. PAWS/STEM was developed in 1989 and last updated in 1991. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. SunOS, Sun3, and Sun4 are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories.

PAWS/STEM - PADE APPROXIMATION WITH SCALING AND SCALED TAYLOR EXPONENTIAL MATRIX (SUN VERSION)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, R. W.

1994-01-01

Traditional fault-tree techniques for analyzing the reliability of large, complex systems fail to model the dynamic reconfiguration capabilities of modern computer systems. Markov models, on the other hand, can describe fault-recovery (via system reconfiguration) as well as fault-occurrence. The Pade Approximation with Scaling (PAWS) and Scaled Taylor Exponential Matrix (STEM) programs provide a flexible, user-friendly, language-based interface for the creation and evaluation of Markov models describing the behavior of fault-tolerant reconfigurable computer systems. PAWS and STEM produce exact solutions for the probability of system failure and provide a conservative estimate of the number of significant digits in the solution. The calculation of the probability of entering a death state of a Markov model (representing system failure) requires the solution of a set of coupled differential equations. Because of the large disparity between the rates of fault arrivals and system recoveries, Markov models of fault-tolerant architectures inevitably lead to numerically stiff differential equations. Both PAWS and STEM have the capability to solve numerically stiff models. These complementary programs use separate methods to determine the matrix exponential in the solution of the model's system of differential equations. In general, PAWS is better suited to evaluate small and dense models. STEM operates at lower precision, but works faster than PAWS for larger models. The mathematical approach chosen to solve a reliability problem may vary with the size and nature of the problem. Although different solution techniques are utilized on different programs, it is possible to have a common input language. The Systems Validation Methods group at NASA Langley Research Center has created a set of programs that form the basis for a reliability analysis workstation. The set of programs are: SURE reliability analysis program (COSMIC program LAR-13789, LAR-14921); the ASSIST specification interface program (LAR-14193, LAR-14923), PAWS/STEM reliability analysis programs (LAR-14165, LAR-14920); and the FTC fault tree tool (LAR-14586, LAR-14922). FTC is used to calculate the top-event probability for a fault tree. PAWS/STEM and SURE are programs which interpret the same SURE language, but utilize different solution methods. ASSIST is a preprocessor that generates SURE language from a more abstract definition. SURE, ASSIST, and PAWS/STEM are also offered as a bundle. Please see the abstract for COS-10039/COS-10041, SARA - SURE/ASSIST Reliability Analysis Workstation, for pricing details. PAWS/STEM was originally developed for DEC VAX series computers running VMS and was later ported for use on Sun computers running SunOS. The package is written in PASCAL, ANSI compliant C-language, and FORTRAN 77. The standard distribution medium for the VMS version of PAWS/STEM (LAR-14165) is a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in VMSINSTAL format. It is also available on a TK50 tape cartridge in VMSINSTAL format. Executables are included. The standard distribution medium for the Sun version of PAWS/STEM (LAR-14920) is a .25 inch streaming magnetic tape cartridge in UNIX tar format. Both Sun3 and Sun4 executables are included. PAWS/STEM was developed in 1989 and last updated in 1991. DEC, VAX, VMS, and TK50 are trademarks of Digital Equipment Corporation. SunOS, Sun3, and Sun4 are trademarks of Sun Microsystems, Inc. UNIX is a registered trademark of AT&T Bell Laboratories.

Analysis of a hardware and software fault tolerant processor for critical applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dugan, Joanne B.

1993-01-01

Computer systems for critical applications must be designed to tolerate software faults as well as hardware faults. A unified approach to tolerating hardware and software faults is characterized by classifying faults in terms of duration (transient or permanent) rather than source (hardware or software). Errors arising from transient faults can be handled through masking or voting, but errors arising from permanent faults require system reconfiguration to bypass the failed component. Most errors which are caused by software faults can be considered transient, in that they are input-dependent. Software faults are triggered by a particular set of inputs. Quantitative dependability analysis of systems which exhibit a unified approach to fault tolerance can be performed by a hierarchical combination of fault tree and Markov models. A methodology for analyzing hardware and software fault tolerant systems is applied to the analysis of a hypothetical system, loosely based on the Fault Tolerant Parallel Processor. The models consider both transient and permanent faults, hardware and software faults, independent and related software faults, automatic recovery, and reconfiguration.

Determining preventability of pediatric readmissions using fault tree analysis.

PubMed

Jonas, Jennifer A; Devon, Erin Pete; Ronan, Jeanine C; Ng, Sonia C; Owusu-McKenzie, Jacqueline Y; Strausbaugh, Janet T; Fieldston, Evan S; Hart, Jessica K

2016-05-01

Previous studies attempting to distinguish preventable from nonpreventable readmissions reported challenges in completing reviews efficiently and consistently. (1) Examine the efficiency and reliability of a Web-based fault tree tool designed to guide physicians through chart reviews to a determination about preventability. (2) Investigate root causes of general pediatrics readmissions and identify the percent that are preventable. General pediatricians from The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia used a Web-based fault tree tool to classify root causes of all general pediatrics 15-day readmissions in 2014. The tool guided reviewers through a logical progression of questions, which resulted in 1 of 18 root causes of readmission, 8 of which were considered potentially preventable. Twenty percent of cases were cross-checked to measure inter-rater reliability. Of the 7252 discharges, 248 were readmitted, for an all-cause general pediatrics 15-day readmission rate of 3.4%. Of those readmissions, 15 (6.0%) were deemed potentially preventable, corresponding to 0.2% of total discharges. The most common cause of potentially preventable readmissions was premature discharge. For the 50 cross-checked cases, both reviews resulted in the same root cause for 44 (86%) of files (κ = 0.79; 95% confidence interval: 0.60-0.98). Completing 1 review using the tool took approximately 20 minutes. The Web-based fault tree tool helped physicians to identify root causes of hospital readmissions and classify them as either preventable or not preventable in an efficient and consistent way. It also confirmed that only a small percentage of general pediatrics 15-day readmissions are potentially preventable. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2016;11:329-335. © 2016 Society of Hospital Medicine. © 2016 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Risk Analysis of Return Support Material on Gas Compressor Platform Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvianita; Aulia, B. U.; Khakim, M. L. N.; Rosyid, Daniel M.

2017-07-01

On a fixed platforms project are not only carried out by a contractor, but two or more contractors. Cooperation in the construction of fixed platforms is often not according to plan, it is caused by several factors. It takes a good synergy between the contractor to avoid miss communication may cause problems on the project. For the example is about support material (sea fastening, skid shoe and shipping support) used in the process of sending a jacket structure to operation place often does not return to the contractor. It needs a systematic method to overcome the problem of support material. This paper analyses the causes and effects of GAS Compressor Platform that support material is not return, using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA). From fault tree analysis, the probability of top event is 0.7783. From event tree analysis diagram, the contractors lose Rp.350.000.000, - to Rp.10.000.000.000, -.

A fault diagnosis scheme for planetary gearboxes using adaptive multi-scale morphology filter and modified hierarchical permutation entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yongbo; Li, Guoyan; Yang, Yuantao; Liang, Xihui; Xu, Minqiang

2018-05-01

The fault diagnosis of planetary gearboxes is crucial to reduce the maintenance costs and economic losses. This paper proposes a novel fault diagnosis method based on adaptive multi-scale morphological filter (AMMF) and modified hierarchical permutation entropy (MHPE) to identify the different health conditions of planetary gearboxes. In this method, AMMF is firstly adopted to remove the fault-unrelated components and enhance the fault characteristics. Second, MHPE is utilized to extract the fault features from the denoised vibration signals. Third, Laplacian score (LS) approach is employed to refine the fault features. In the end, the obtained features are fed into the binary tree support vector machine (BT-SVM) to accomplish the fault pattern identification. The proposed method is numerically and experimentally demonstrated to be able to recognize the different fault categories of planetary gearboxes.

Pseudo-dynamic source characterization accounting for rough-fault effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galis, Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Mai, P. Martin

2016-04-01

Broadband ground-motion simulations, ideally for frequencies up to ~10Hz or higher, are important for earthquake engineering; for example, seismic hazard analysis for critical facilities. An issue with such simulations is realistic generation of radiated wave-field in the desired frequency range. Numerical simulations of dynamic ruptures propagating on rough faults suggest that fault roughness is necessary for realistic high-frequency radiation. However, simulations of dynamic ruptures are too expensive for routine applications. Therefore, simplified synthetic kinematic models are often used. They are usually based on rigorous statistical analysis of rupture models inferred by inversions of seismic and/or geodetic data. However, due to limited resolution of the inversions, these models are valid only for low-frequency range. In addition to the slip, parameters such as rupture-onset time, rise time and source time functions are needed for complete spatiotemporal characterization of the earthquake rupture. But these parameters are poorly resolved in the source inversions. To obtain a physically consistent quantification of these parameters, we simulate and analyze spontaneous dynamic ruptures on rough faults. First, by analyzing the impact of fault roughness on the rupture and seismic radiation, we develop equivalent planar-fault kinematic analogues of the dynamic ruptures. Next, we investigate the spatial interdependencies between the source parameters to allow consistent modeling that emulates the observed behavior of dynamic ruptures capturing the rough-fault effects. Based on these analyses, we formulate a framework for pseudo-dynamic source model, physically consistent with the dynamic ruptures on rough faults.

Progress on Fault Mechanisms for Gear Transmissions in Coal Cutting Machines: From Macro to Nano Models.

PubMed

Jiang, Yu; Zhang, Xiaogang; Zhang, Chao; Li, Zhixiong; Sheng, Chenxing

2017-04-01

Numerical modeling has been recognized as the dispensable tools for mechanical fault mechanism analysis. Techniques, ranging from macro to nano levels, include the finite element modeling boundary element modeling, modular dynamic modeling, nano dynamic modeling and so forth. This work firstly reviewed the progress on the fault mechanism analysis for gear transmissions from the tribological and dynamic aspects. Literature review indicates that the tribological and dynamic properties were separately investigated to explore the fault mechanism in gear transmissions. However, very limited work has been done to address the links between the tribological and dynamic properties and scarce researches have been done for coal cutting machines. For this reason, the tribo-dynamic coupled model was introduced to bridge the gap between the tribological and dynamic models in fault mechanism analysis for gear transmissions in coal cutting machines. The modular dynamic modeling and nano dynamic modeling techniques are expected to establish the links between the tribological and dynamic models. Possible future research directions using the tribo dynamic coupled model were summarized to provide potential references for researchers in the field.

Correlation Between the System Capabilities Analytic Process (SCAP) and the Missions and Means Framework (MMF)

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-01

specifics of the correlation will be explored followed by discussion of new paradigms— the ordered event list (OEL) and the decision tree — that result from...4.2.1  Brief Overview of the Decision Tree Paradigm ................................................15  4.2.2  OEL Explained...6  Figure 3. A depiction of a notional fault/activation tree . ................................................................7

Inferring Fault Frictional and Reservoir Hydraulic Properties From Injection-Induced Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jagalur-Mohan, Jayanth; Jha, Birendra; Wang, Zheng; Juanes, Ruben; Marzouk, Youssef

2018-02-01

Characterizing the rheological properties of faults and the evolution of fault friction during seismic slip are fundamental problems in geology and seismology. Recent increases in the frequency of induced earthquakes have intensified the need for robust methods to estimate fault properties. Here we present a novel approach for estimation of aquifer and fault properties, which combines coupled multiphysics simulation of injection-induced seismicity with adaptive surrogate-based Bayesian inversion. In a synthetic 2-D model, we use aquifer pressure, ground displacements, and fault slip measurements during fluid injection to estimate the dynamic fault friction, the critical slip distance, and the aquifer permeability. Our forward model allows us to observe nonmonotonic evolutions of shear traction and slip on the fault resulting from the interplay of several physical mechanisms, including injection-induced aquifer expansion, stress transfer along the fault, and slip-induced stress relaxation. This interplay provides the basis for a successful joint inversion of induced seismicity, yielding well-informed Bayesian posterior distributions of dynamic friction and critical slip. We uncover an inverse relationship between dynamic friction and critical slip distance, which is in agreement with the small dynamic friction and large critical slip reported during seismicity on mature faults.

Insurance Applications of Active Fault Maps Showing Epistemic Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, G.

2005-12-01

Insurance loss modeling for earthquakes utilizes available maps of active faulting produced by geoscientists. All such maps are subject to uncertainty, arising from lack of knowledge of fault geometry and rupture history. Field work to undertake geological fault investigations drains human and monetary resources, and this inevitably limits the resolution of fault parameters. Some areas are more accessible than others; some may be of greater social or economic importance than others; some areas may be investigated more rapidly or diligently than others; or funding restrictions may have curtailed the extent of the fault mapping program. In contrast with the aleatory uncertainty associated with the inherent variability in the dynamics of earthquake fault rupture, uncertainty associated with lack of knowledge of fault geometry and rupture history is epistemic. The extent of this epistemic uncertainty may vary substantially from one regional or national fault map to another. However aware the local cartographer may be, this uncertainty is generally not conveyed in detail to the international map user. For example, an area may be left blank for a variety of reasons, ranging from lack of sufficient investigation of a fault to lack of convincing evidence of activity. Epistemic uncertainty in fault parameters is of concern in any probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard, not least in insurance earthquake risk applications. A logic-tree framework is appropriate for incorporating epistemic uncertainty. Some insurance contracts cover specific high-value properties or transport infrastructure, and therefore are extremely sensitive to the geometry of active faulting. Alternative Risk Transfer (ART) to the capital markets may also be considered. In order for such insurance or ART contracts to be properly priced, uncertainty should be taken into account. Accordingly, an estimate is needed for the likelihood of surface rupture capable of causing severe damage. Especially where a high deductible is in force, this requires estimation of the epistemic uncertainty on fault geometry and activity. Transport infrastructure insurance is of practical interest in seismic countries. On the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey, there is uncertainty over an unbroken segment between the eastern end of the Dazce Fault and Bolu. This may have ruptured during the 1944 earthquake. Existing hazard maps may simply use a question mark to flag uncertainty. However, a far more informative type of hazard map might express spatial variations in the confidence level associated with a fault map. Through such visual guidance, an insurance risk analyst would be better placed to price earthquake cover, allowing for epistemic uncertainty.

Monitoring of Microseismicity with ArrayTechniques in the Peach Tree Valley Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Reyes, J. L.; Clayton, R. W.

2016-12-01

This study is focused on the analysis of microseismicity along the San Andreas Fault in the PeachTree Valley region. This zone is part of the transition zone between the locked portion to the south (Parkfield, CA) and the creeping section to the north (Jovilet, et al., JGR, 2014). The data for the study comes from a 2-week deployment of 116 Zland nodes in a cross-shaped configuration along (8.2 km) and across (9 km) the Fault. We analyze the distribution of microseismicity using a 3D backprojection technique, and we explore the use of Hidden Markov Models to identify different patterns of microseismicity (Hammer et al., GJI, 2013). The goal of the study is to relate the style of seismicity to the mechanical state of the Fault. The results show the evolution of seismic activity as well as at least two different patterns of seismic signals.

[Impact of water pollution risk in water transfer project based on fault tree analysis].

PubMed

Liu, Jian-Chang; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Li-Min; Li, Dai-Qing; Fan, Xiu-Ying; Deng, Hong-Bing

2009-09-15

The methods to assess water pollution risk for medium water transfer are gradually being explored. The event-nature-proportion method was developed to evaluate the probability of the single event. Fault tree analysis on the basis of calculation on single event was employed to evaluate the extent of whole water pollution risk for the channel water body. The result indicates, that the risk of pollutants from towns and villages along the line of water transfer project to the channel water body is at high level with the probability of 0.373, which will increase pollution to the channel water body at the rate of 64.53 mg/L COD, 4.57 mg/L NH4(+) -N and 0.066 mg/L volatilization hydroxybenzene, respectively. The measurement of fault probability on the basis of proportion method is proved to be useful in assessing water pollution risk under much uncertainty.

Viewpoint on ISA TR84.0.02--simplified methods and fault tree analysis.

PubMed

Summers, A E

2000-01-01

ANSI/ISA-S84.01-1996 and IEC 61508 require the establishment of a safety integrity level for any safety instrumented system or safety related system used to mitigate risk. Each stage of design, operation, maintenance, and testing is judged against this safety integrity level. Quantitative techniques can be used to verify whether the safety integrity level is met. ISA-dTR84.0.02 is a technical report under development by ISA, which discusses how to apply quantitative analysis techniques to safety instrumented systems. This paper discusses two of those techniques: (1) Simplified equations and (2) Fault tree analysis.

TH-EF-BRC-03: Fault Tree Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomadsen, B.

2016-06-15

This Hands-on Workshop will be focused on providing participants with experience with the principal tools of TG 100 and hence start to build both competence and confidence in the use of risk-based quality management techniques. The three principal tools forming the basis of TG 100’s risk analysis: Process mapping, Failure-Modes and Effects Analysis and fault-tree analysis will be introduced with a 5 minute refresher presentation and each presentation will be followed by a 30 minute small group exercise. An exercise on developing QM from the risk analysis follows. During the exercise periods, participants will apply the principles in 2 differentmore » clinical scenarios. At the conclusion of each exercise there will be ample time for participants to discuss with each other and the faculty their experience and any challenges encountered. Learning Objectives: To review the principles of Process Mapping, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis. To gain familiarity with these three techniques in a small group setting. To share and discuss experiences with the three techniques with faculty and participants. Director, TreatSafely, LLC. Director, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences. Occasional Consultant to the IAEA and Varian.« less

Estimating earthquake-induced failure probability and downtime of critical facilities.

PubMed

Porter, Keith; Ramer, Kyle

2012-01-01

Fault trees have long been used to estimate failure risk in earthquakes, especially for nuclear power plants (NPPs). One interesting application is that one can assess and manage the probability that two facilities - a primary and backup - would be simultaneously rendered inoperative in a single earthquake. Another is that one can calculate the probabilistic time required to restore a facility to functionality, and the probability that, during any given planning period, the facility would be rendered inoperative for any specified duration. A large new peer-reviewed library of component damageability and repair-time data for the first time enables fault trees to be used to calculate the seismic risk of operational failure and downtime for a wide variety of buildings other than NPPs. With the new library, seismic risk of both the failure probability and probabilistic downtime can be assessed and managed, considering the facility's unique combination of structural and non-structural components, their seismic installation conditions, and the other systems on which the facility relies. An example is offered of real computer data centres operated by a California utility. The fault trees were created and tested in collaboration with utility operators, and the failure probability and downtime results validated in several ways.

Application of fault tree approach for the causation mechanism of urban haze in Beijing--Considering the risk events related with exhausts of coal combustion.

PubMed

Huang, Weiqing; Fan, Hongbo; Qiu, Yongfu; Cheng, Zhiyu; Qian, Yu

2016-02-15

Haze weather has become a serious environmental pollution problem which occurs in many Chinese cities. One of the most critical factors for the formation of haze weather is the exhausts of coal combustion, thus it is meaningful to figure out the causation mechanism between urban haze and the exhausts of coal combustion. Based on above considerations, the fault tree analysis (FAT) approach was employed for the causation mechanism of urban haze in Beijing by considering the risk events related with the exhausts of coal combustion for the first time. Using this approach, firstly the fault tree of the urban haze causation system connecting with coal combustion exhausts was established; consequently the risk events were discussed and identified; then, the minimal cut sets were successfully determined using Boolean algebra; finally, the structure, probability and critical importance degree analysis of the risk events were completed for the qualitative and quantitative assessment. The study results proved that the FTA was an effective and simple tool for the causation mechanism analysis and risk management of urban haze in China. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Failure analysis of storage tank component in LNG regasification unit using fault tree analysis method (FTA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulyana, Cukup; Muhammad, Fajar; Saad, Aswad H.; Mariah, Riveli, Nowo

2017-03-01

Storage tank component is the most critical component in LNG regasification terminal. It has the risk of failure and accident which impacts to human health and environment. Risk assessment is conducted to detect and reduce the risk of failure in storage tank. The aim of this research is determining and calculating the probability of failure in regasification unit of LNG. In this case, the failure is caused by Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE) and jet fire in LNG storage tank component. The failure probability can be determined by using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Besides that, the impact of heat radiation which is generated is calculated. Fault tree for BLEVE and jet fire on storage tank component has been determined and obtained with the value of failure probability for BLEVE of 5.63 × 10-19 and for jet fire of 9.57 × 10-3. The value of failure probability for jet fire is high enough and need to be reduced by customizing PID scheme of regasification LNG unit in pipeline number 1312 and unit 1. The value of failure probability after customization has been obtained of 4.22 × 10-6.

Data-driven simultaneous fault diagnosis for solid oxide fuel cell system using multi-label pattern identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuanghong; Cao, Hongliang; Yang, Yupu

2018-02-01

Fault diagnosis is a key process for the reliability and safety of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) systems. However, it is difficult to rapidly and accurately identify faults for complicated SOFC systems, especially when simultaneous faults appear. In this research, a data-driven Multi-Label (ML) pattern identification approach is proposed to address the simultaneous fault diagnosis of SOFC systems. The framework of the simultaneous-fault diagnosis primarily includes two components: feature extraction and ML-SVM classifier. The simultaneous-fault diagnosis approach can be trained to diagnose simultaneous SOFC faults, such as fuel leakage, air leakage in different positions in the SOFC system, by just using simple training data sets consisting only single fault and not demanding simultaneous faults data. The experimental result shows the proposed framework can diagnose the simultaneous SOFC system faults with high accuracy requiring small number training data and low computational burden. In addition, Fault Inference Tree Analysis (FITA) is employed to identify the correlations among possible faults and their corresponding symptoms at the system component level.

Unraveling the Earthquake History of the Denali Fault System, Alaska: Filling a Blank Canvas With Paleoearthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, D. P.; Haeussler, P. J.; Seitz, G. G.; Dawson, T. E.; Stenner, H. D.; Matmon, A.; Crone, A. J.; Personius, S.; Burns, P. B.; Cadena, A.; Thoms, E.

2005-12-01

Developing accurate rupture histories of long, high-slip-rate strike-slip faults is is especially challenging where recurrence is relatively short (hundreds of years), adjacent segments may fail within decades of each other, and uncertainties in dating can be as large as, or larger than, the time between events. The Denali Fault system (DFS) is the major active structure of interior Alaska, but received little study since pioneering fault investigations in the early 1970s. Until the summer of 2003 essentially no data existed on the timing or spatial distribution of past ruptures on the DFS. This changed with the occurrence of the M7.9 2002 Denali fault earthquake, which has been a catalyst for present paleoseismic investigations. It provided a well-constrained rupture length and slip distribution. Strike-slip faulting occurred along 290 km of the Denali and Totschunda faults, leaving unruptured ?140km of the eastern Denali fault, ?180 km of the western Denali fault, and ?70 km of the eastern Totschunda fault. The DFS presents us with a blank canvas on which to fill a chronology of past earthquakes using modern paleoseismic techniques. Aware of correlation issues with potentially closely-timed earthquakes we have a) investigated 11 paleoseismic sites that allow a variety of dating techniques, b) measured paleo offsets, which provide insight into magnitude and rupture length of past events, at 18 locations, and c) developed late Pleistocene and Holocene slip rates using exposure age dating to constrain long-term fault behavior models. We are in the process of: 1) radiocarbon-dating peats involved in faulting and liquefaction, and especially short-lived forest floor vegetation that includes outer rings of trees, spruce needles, and blueberry leaves killed and buried during paleoearthquakes; 2) supporting development of a 700-900 year tree-ring time-series for precise dating of trees used in event timing; 3) employing Pb 210 for constraining the youngest ruptures in sag ponds on the eastern and western Denali fault; and 4) using volcanic ashes in trenches for dating and correlation. Initial results are: 1) Large earthquakes occurred along the 2002 rupture section 350-700 yrb02 (2-sigma, calendar-corrected, years before 2002) with offsets about the same as 2002. The Denali penultimate rupture appears younger (350-570 yrb02) than the Totschunda (580-700 yrb02); 2) The western Denali fault is geomorphically fresh, its MRE likely occurred within the past 250 years, the penultimate event occurred 570-680 yrb02, and slip in each event was 4m; 3) The eastern Denali MRE post-dates peat dated at 550-680 yrb02, is younger than the penultimate Totschunda event, and could be part of the penultimate Denali fault rupture or a separate earthquake; 4) A 120-km section of the Denali fault between tNenana glacier and the Delta River may be a zone of overlap for large events and/or capable of producing smaller earthquakes; its western part has fresh scarps with small (1m) offsets. 2004/2005 field observations show there are longer datable records, with 4-5 events recorded in trenches on the eastern Denali fault and the west end of the 2002 rupture, 2-3 events on the western part of the fault in Denali National Park, and 3-4 events on the Totschunda fault. These and extensive datable material provide the basis to define the paleoseismic history of DFS earthquake ruptures through multiple and complete earthquake cycles.

Support vector machines-based fault diagnosis for turbo-pump rotor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Sheng-Fa; Chu, Fu-Lei

2006-05-01

Most artificial intelligence methods used in fault diagnosis are based on empirical risk minimisation principle and have poor generalisation when fault samples are few. Support vector machines (SVM) is a new general machine-learning tool based on structural risk minimisation principle that exhibits good generalisation even when fault samples are few. Fault diagnosis based on SVM is discussed. Since basic SVM is originally designed for two-class classification, while most of fault diagnosis problems are multi-class cases, a new multi-class classification of SVM named 'one to others' algorithm is presented to solve the multi-class recognition problems. It is a binary tree classifier composed of several two-class classifiers organised by fault priority, which is simple, and has little repeated training amount, and the rate of training and recognition is expedited. The effectiveness of the method is verified by the application to the fault diagnosis for turbo pump rotor.

Dynamics of Gas Exchange through the Fractal Architecture of the Human Lung, Modeled as an Exactly Solvable Hierarchical Tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayo, Michael; Pfeifer, Peter; Gheorghiu, Stefan

2008-03-01

The acinar airways lie at the periphery of the human lung and are responsible for the transfer of oxygen from air to the blood during respiration. This transfer occurs by the diffusion-reaction of oxygen over the irregular surface of the alveolar membranes lining the acinar airways. We present an exactly solvable diffusion-reaction model on a hierarchically branched tree, allowing a quantitative prediction of the oxygen current over the entire system of acinar airways responsible for the gas exchange. We discuss the effect of diffusional screening, which is strongly coupled to oxygen transport in the human lung. We show that the oxygen current is insensitive to a loss of permeability of the alveolar membranes over a wide range of permeabilities, similar to a ``constant-current source'' in an electric network. Such fault tolerance has been observed in other treatments of the gas exchange in the lung and is obtained here as a fully analytical result.

EDNA: Expert fault digraph analysis using CLIPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dixit, Vishweshwar V.

1990-01-01

Traditionally fault models are represented by trees. Recently, digraph models have been proposed (Sack). Digraph models closely imitate the real system dependencies and hence are easy to develop, validate and maintain. However, they can also contain directed cycles and analysis algorithms are hard to find. Available algorithms tend to be complicated and slow. On the other hand, the tree analysis (VGRH, Tayl) is well understood and rooted in vast research effort and analytical techniques. The tree analysis algorithms are sophisticated and orders of magnitude faster. Transformation of a digraph (cyclic) into trees (CLP, LP) is a viable approach to blend the advantages of the representations. Neither the digraphs nor the trees provide the ability to handle heuristic knowledge. An expert system, to capture the engineering knowledge, is essential. We propose an approach here, namely, expert network analysis. We combine the digraph representation and tree algorithms. The models are augmented by probabilistic and heuristic knowledge. CLIPS, an expert system shell from NASA-JSC will be used to develop a tool. The technique provides the ability to handle probabilities and heuristic knowledge. Mixed analysis, some nodes with probabilities, is possible. The tool provides graphics interface for input, query, and update. With the combined approach it is expected to be a valuable tool in the design process as well in the capture of final design knowledge.

A new multiscale noise tuning stochastic resonance for enhanced fault diagnosis in wind turbine drivetrains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Bingbing; Li, Bing

2016-02-01

It is very difficult to detect weak fault signatures due to the large amount of noise in a wind turbine system. Multiscale noise tuning stochastic resonance (MSTSR) has proved to be an effective way to extract weak signals buried in strong noise. However, the MSTSR method originally based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT) has disadvantages such as shift variance and the aliasing effects in engineering application. In this paper, the dual-tree complex wavelet transform (DTCWT) is introduced into the MSTSR method, which makes it possible to further improve the system output signal-to-noise ratio and the accuracy of fault diagnosis by the merits of DTCWT (nearly shift invariant and reduced aliasing effects). Moreover, this method utilizes the relationship between the two dual-tree wavelet basis functions, instead of matching the single wavelet basis function to the signal being analyzed, which may speed up the signal processing and be employed in on-line engineering monitoring. The proposed method is applied to the analysis of bearing outer ring and shaft coupling vibration signals carrying fault information. The results confirm that the method performs better in extracting the fault features than the original DWT-based MSTSR, the wavelet transform with post spectral analysis, and EMD-based spectral analysis methods.

Nonlinear dynamic failure process of tunnel-fault system in response to strong seismic event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zhihua; Lan, Hengxing; Zhang, Yongshuang; Gao, Xing; Li, Langping

2013-03-01

Strong earthquakes and faults have significant effect on the stability capability of underground tunnel structures. This study used a 3-Dimensional Discrete Element model and the real records of ground motion in the Wenchuan earthquake to investigate the dynamic response of tunnel-fault system. The typical tunnel-fault system was composed of one planned railway tunnel and one seismically active fault. The discrete numerical model was prudentially calibrated by means of the comparison between the field survey and numerical results of ground motion. It was then used to examine the detailed quantitative information on the dynamic response characteristics of tunnel-fault system, including stress distribution, strain, vibration velocity and tunnel failure process. The intensive tunnel-fault interaction during seismic loading induces the dramatic stress redistribution and stress concentration in the intersection of tunnel and fault. The tunnel-fault system behavior is characterized by the complicated nonlinear dynamic failure process in response to a real strong seismic event. It can be qualitatively divided into 5 main stages in terms of its stress, strain and rupturing behaviors: (1) strain localization, (2) rupture initiation, (3) rupture acceleration, (4) spontaneous rupture growth and (5) stabilization. This study provides the insight into the further stability estimation of underground tunnel structures under the combined effect of strong earthquakes and faults.

Laboratory investigations of earthquake dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Kaiwen

In this thesis this will be attempted through controlled laboratory experiments that are designed to mimic natural earthquake scenarios. The earthquake dynamic rupturing process itself is a complicated phenomenon, involving dynamic friction, wave propagation, and heat production. Because controlled experiments can produce results without assumptions needed in theoretical and numerical analysis, the experimental method is thus advantageous over theoretical and numerical methods. Our laboratory fault is composed of carefully cut photoelastic polymer plates (Homahte-100, Polycarbonate) held together by uniaxial compression. As a unique unit of the experimental design, a controlled exploding wire technique provides the triggering mechanism of laboratory earthquakes. Three important components of real earthquakes (i.e., pre-existing fault, tectonic loading, and triggering mechanism) correspond to and are simulated by frictional contact, uniaxial compression, and the exploding wire technique. Dynamic rupturing processes are visualized using the photoelastic method and are recorded via a high-speed camera. Our experimental methodology, which is full-field, in situ, and non-intrusive, has better control and diagnostic capacity compared to other existing experimental methods. Using this experimental approach, we have investigated several problems: dynamics of earthquake faulting occurring along homogeneous faults separating identical materials, earthquake faulting along inhomogeneous faults separating materials with different wave speeds, and earthquake faulting along faults with a finite low wave speed fault core. We have observed supershear ruptures, subRayleigh to supershear rupture transition, crack-like to pulse-like rupture transition, self-healing (Heaton) pulse, and rupture directionality.

On the sensitivity of transtensional versus transpressional tectonic regimes to remote dynamic triggering by Coulomb failure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, David P.

2015-01-01

 Accumulating evidence, although still strongly spatially aliased, indicates that although remote dynamic triggering of small-to-moderate (Mw<5) earthquakes can occur in all tectonic settings, transtensional stress regimes with normal and subsidiary strike-slip faulting seem to be more susceptible to dynamic triggering than transpressional regimes with reverse and subsidiary strike-slip faulting. Analysis of the triggering potential of Love- and Rayleigh-wave dynamic stresses incident on normal, reverse, and strike-slip faults assuming Andersonian faulting theory and simple Coulomb failure supports this apparent difference for rapid-onset triggering susceptibility.

Locating hardware faults in a parallel computer

DOEpatents

Archer, Charles J.; Megerian, Mark G.; Ratterman, Joseph D.; Smith, Brian E.

2010-04-13

Locating hardware faults in a parallel computer, including defining within a tree network of the parallel computer two or more sets of non-overlapping test levels of compute nodes of the network that together include all the data communications links of the network, each non-overlapping test level comprising two or more adjacent tiers of the tree; defining test cells within each non-overlapping test level, each test cell comprising a subtree of the tree including a subtree root compute node and all descendant compute nodes of the subtree root compute node within a non-overlapping test level; performing, separately on each set of non-overlapping test levels, an uplink test on all test cells in a set of non-overlapping test levels; and performing, separately from the uplink tests and separately on each set of non-overlapping test levels, a downlink test on all test cells in a set of non-overlapping test levels.

Dynamic modeling of gearbox faults: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Xihui; Zuo, Ming J.; Feng, Zhipeng

2018-01-01

Gearbox is widely used in industrial and military applications. Due to high service load, harsh operating conditions or inevitable fatigue, faults may develop in gears. If the gear faults cannot be detected early, the health will continue to degrade, perhaps causing heavy economic loss or even catastrophe. Early fault detection and diagnosis allows properly scheduled shutdowns to prevent catastrophic failure and consequently result in a safer operation and higher cost reduction. Recently, many studies have been done to develop gearbox dynamic models with faults aiming to understand gear fault generation mechanism and then develop effective fault detection and diagnosis methods. This paper focuses on dynamics based gearbox fault modeling, detection and diagnosis. State-of-art and challenges are reviewed and discussed. This detailed literature review limits research results to the following fundamental yet key aspects: gear mesh stiffness evaluation, gearbox damage modeling and fault diagnosis techniques, gearbox transmission path modeling and method validation. In the end, a summary and some research prospects are presented.

A signal-based fault detection and classification method for heavy haul wagons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chunsheng; Luo, Shihui; Cole, Colin; Spiryagin, Maksym; Sun, Yanquan

2017-12-01

This paper proposes a signal-based fault detection and isolation (FDI) system for heavy haul wagons considering the special requirements of low cost and robustness. The sensor network of the proposed system consists of just two accelerometers mounted on the front left and rear right of the carbody. Seven fault indicators (FIs) are proposed based on the cross-correlation analyses of the sensor-collected acceleration signals. Bolster spring fault conditions are focused on in this paper, including two different levels (small faults and moderate faults) and two locations (faults in the left and right bolster springs of the first bogie). A fully detailed dynamic model of a typical 40t axle load heavy haul wagon is developed to evaluate the deterioration of dynamic behaviour under proposed fault conditions and demonstrate the detectability of the proposed FDI method. Even though the fault conditions considered in this paper did not deteriorate the wagon dynamic behaviour dramatically, the proposed FIs show great sensitivity to the bolster spring faults. The most effective and efficient FIs are chosen for fault detection and classification. Analysis results indicate that it is possible to detect changes in bolster stiffness of ±25% and identify the fault location.

Robust fault detection of wind energy conversion systems based on dynamic neural networks.

PubMed

Talebi, Nasser; Sadrnia, Mohammad Ali; Darabi, Ahmad

2014-01-01

Occurrence of faults in wind energy conversion systems (WECSs) is inevitable. In order to detect the occurred faults at the appropriate time, avoid heavy economic losses, ensure safe system operation, prevent damage to adjacent relevant systems, and facilitate timely repair of failed components; a fault detection system (FDS) is required. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have gained a noticeable position in FDSs and they have been widely used for modeling of complex dynamical systems. One method for designing an FDS is to prepare a dynamic neural model emulating the normal system behavior. By comparing the outputs of the real system and neural model, incidence of the faults can be identified. In this paper, by utilizing a comprehensive dynamic model which contains both mechanical and electrical components of the WECS, an FDS is suggested using dynamic RNNs. The presented FDS detects faults of the generator's angular velocity sensor, pitch angle sensors, and pitch actuators. Robustness of the FDS is achieved by employing an adaptive threshold. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme is capable to detect the faults shortly and it has very low false and missed alarms rate.

Robust Fault Detection of Wind Energy Conversion Systems Based on Dynamic Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Talebi, Nasser; Sadrnia, Mohammad Ali; Darabi, Ahmad

2014-01-01

Occurrence of faults in wind energy conversion systems (WECSs) is inevitable. In order to detect the occurred faults at the appropriate time, avoid heavy economic losses, ensure safe system operation, prevent damage to adjacent relevant systems, and facilitate timely repair of failed components; a fault detection system (FDS) is required. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have gained a noticeable position in FDSs and they have been widely used for modeling of complex dynamical systems. One method for designing an FDS is to prepare a dynamic neural model emulating the normal system behavior. By comparing the outputs of the real system and neural model, incidence of the faults can be identified. In this paper, by utilizing a comprehensive dynamic model which contains both mechanical and electrical components of the WECS, an FDS is suggested using dynamic RNNs. The presented FDS detects faults of the generator's angular velocity sensor, pitch angle sensors, and pitch actuators. Robustness of the FDS is achieved by employing an adaptive threshold. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme is capable to detect the faults shortly and it has very low false and missed alarms rate. PMID:24744774

Quasi-dynamic earthquake fault systems with rheological heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brietzke, G. B.; Hainzl, S.; Zoeller, G.; Holschneider, M.

2009-12-01

Seismic risk and hazard estimates mostly use pure empirical, stochastic models of earthquake fault systems tuned specifically to the vulnerable areas of interest. Although such models allow for reasonable risk estimates, such models cannot allow for physical statements of the described seismicity. In contrary such empirical stochastic models, physics based earthquake fault systems models allow for a physical reasoning and interpretation of the produced seismicity and system dynamics. Recently different fault system earthquake simulators based on frictional stick-slip behavior have been used to study effects of stress heterogeneity, rheological heterogeneity, or geometrical complexity on earthquake occurrence, spatial and temporal clustering of earthquakes, and system dynamics. Here we present a comparison of characteristics of synthetic earthquake catalogs produced by two different formulations of quasi-dynamic fault system earthquake simulators. Both models are based on discretized frictional faults embedded in an elastic half-space. While one (1) is governed by rate- and state-dependent friction with allowing three evolutionary stages of independent fault patches, the other (2) is governed by instantaneous frictional weakening with scheduled (and therefore causal) stress transfer. We analyze spatial and temporal clustering of events and characteristics of system dynamics by means of physical parameters of the two approaches.

The SCEC/USGS dynamic earthquake rupture code verification exercise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, R.A.; Barall, M.; Archuleta, R.; Dunham, E.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Ampuero, J.-P.; Bhat, H.; Cruz-Atienza, Victor M.; Dalguer, L.; Dawson, P.; Day, S.; Duan, B.; Ely, G.; Kaneko, Y.; Kase, Y.; Lapusta, N.; Liu, Yajing; Ma, S.; Oglesby, D.; Olsen, K.; Pitarka, A.; Song, S.; Templeton, E.

2009-01-01

Numerical simulations of earthquake rupture dynamics are now common, yet it has been difficult to test the validity of these simulations because there have been few field observations and no analytic solutions with which to compare the results. This paper describes the Southern California Earthquake Center/U.S. Geological Survey (SCEC/USGS) Dynamic Earthquake Rupture Code Verification Exercise, where codes that simulate spontaneous rupture dynamics in three dimensions are evaluated and the results produced by these codes are compared using Web-based tools. This is the first time that a broad and rigorous examination of numerous spontaneous rupture codes has been performed—a significant advance in this science. The automated process developed to attain this achievement provides for a future where testing of codes is easily accomplished.Scientists who use computer simulations to understand earthquakes utilize a range of techniques. Most of these assume that earthquakes are caused by slip at depth on faults in the Earth, but hereafter the strategies vary. Among the methods used in earthquake mechanics studies are kinematic approaches and dynamic approaches.The kinematic approach uses a computer code that prescribes the spatial and temporal evolution of slip on the causative fault (or faults). These types of simulations are very helpful, especially since they can be used in seismic data inversions to relate the ground motions recorded in the field to slip on the fault(s) at depth. However, these kinematic solutions generally provide no insight into the physics driving the fault slip or information about why the involved fault(s) slipped that much (or that little). In other words, these kinematic solutions may lack information about the physical dynamics of earthquake rupture that will be most helpful in forecasting future events.To help address this issue, some researchers use computer codes to numerically simulate earthquakes and construct dynamic, spontaneous rupture (hereafter called “spontaneous rupture”) solutions. For these types of numerical simulations, rather than prescribing the slip function at each location on the fault(s), just the friction constitutive properties and initial stress conditions are prescribed. The subsequent stresses and fault slip spontaneously evolve over time as part of the elasto-dynamic solution. Therefore, spontaneous rupture computer simulations of earthquakes allow us to include everything that we know, or think that we know, about earthquake dynamics and to test these ideas against earthquake observations.

Tsunamis and splay fault dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wendt, J.; Oglesby, D.D.; Geist, E.L.

2009-01-01

The geometry of a fault system can have significant effects on tsunami generation, but most tsunami models to date have not investigated the dynamic processes that determine which path rupture will take in a complex fault system. To gain insight into this problem, we use the 3D finite element method to model the dynamics of a plate boundary/splay fault system. We use the resulting ground deformation as a time-dependent boundary condition for a 2D shallow-water hydrodynamic tsunami calculation. We find that if me stress distribution is homogeneous, rupture remains on the plate boundary thrust. When a barrier is introduced along the strike of the plate boundary thrust, rupture propagates to the splay faults, and produces a significantly larger tsunami man in the homogeneous case. The results have implications for the dynamics of megathrust earthquakes, and also suggest mat dynamic earthquake modeling may be a useful tool in tsunami researcn. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Model authoring system for fail safe analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sikora, Scott E.

1990-01-01

The Model Authoring System is a prototype software application for generating fault tree analyses and failure mode and effects analyses for circuit designs. Utilizing established artificial intelligence and expert system techniques, the circuits are modeled as a frame-based knowledge base in an expert system shell, which allows the use of object oriented programming and an inference engine. The behavior of the circuit is then captured through IF-THEN rules, which then are searched to generate either a graphical fault tree analysis or failure modes and effects analysis. Sophisticated authoring techniques allow the circuit to be easily modeled, permit its behavior to be quickly defined, and provide abstraction features to deal with complexity.

A quantitative analysis of the F18 flight control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doyle, Stacy A.; Dugan, Joanne B.; Patterson-Hine, Ann

1993-01-01

This paper presents an informal quantitative analysis of the F18 flight control system (FCS). The analysis technique combines a coverage model with a fault tree model. To demonstrate the method's extensive capabilities, we replace the fault tree with a digraph model of the F18 FCS, the only model available to us. The substitution shows that while digraphs have primarily been used for qualitative analysis, they can also be used for quantitative analysis. Based on our assumptions and the particular failure rates assigned to the F18 FCS components, we show that coverage does have a significant effect on the system's reliability and thus it is important to include coverage in the reliability analysis.

Distributed Fault-Tolerant Control of Networked Uncertain Euler-Lagrange Systems Under Actuator Faults.

PubMed

Chen, Gang; Song, Yongduan; Lewis, Frank L

2016-05-03

This paper investigates the distributed fault-tolerant control problem of networked Euler-Lagrange systems with actuator and communication link faults. An adaptive fault-tolerant cooperative control scheme is proposed to achieve the coordinated tracking control of networked uncertain Lagrange systems on a general directed communication topology, which contains a spanning tree with the root node being the active target system. The proposed algorithm is capable of compensating for the actuator bias fault, the partial loss of effectiveness actuation fault, the communication link fault, the model uncertainty, and the external disturbance simultaneously. The control scheme does not use any fault detection and isolation mechanism to detect, separate, and identify the actuator faults online, which largely reduces the online computation and expedites the responsiveness of the controller. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a test-bed of multiple robot-arm cooperative control system is developed for real-time verification. Experiments on the networked robot-arms are conduced and the results confirm the benefits and the effectiveness of the proposed distributed fault-tolerant control algorithms.

Friction Laws Derived From the Acoustic Emissions of a Laboratory Fault by Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouet-Leduc, B.; Hulbert, C.; Ren, C. X.; Bolton, D. C.; Marone, C.; Johnson, P. A.

2017-12-01

Fault friction controls nearly all aspects of fault rupture, yet it is only possible to measure in the laboratory. Here we describe laboratory experiments where acoustic emissions are recorded from the fault. We find that by applying a machine learning approach known as "extreme gradient boosting trees" to the continuous acoustical signal, the fault friction can be directly inferred, showing that instantaneous characteristics of the acoustic signal are a fingerprint of the frictional state. This machine learning-based inference leads to a simple law that links the acoustic signal to the friction state, and holds for every stress cycle the laboratory fault goes through. The approach does not use any other measured parameter than instantaneous statistics of the acoustic signal. This finding may have importance for inferring frictional characteristics from seismic waves in Earth where fault friction cannot be measured.

The Design of a Fault-Tolerant COTS-Based Bus Architecture for Space Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chau, Savio N.; Alkalai, Leon; Tai, Ann T.

2000-01-01

The high-performance, scalability and miniaturization requirements together with the power, mass and cost constraints mandate the use of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components and standards in the X2000 avionics system architecture for deep-space missions. In this paper, we report our experiences and findings on the design of an IEEE 1394 compliant fault-tolerant COTS-based bus architecture. While the COTS standard IEEE 1394 adequately supports power management, high performance and scalability, its topological criteria impose restrictions on fault tolerance realization. To circumvent the difficulties, we derive a "stack-tree" topology that not only complies with the IEEE 1394 standard but also facilitates fault tolerance realization in a spaceborne system with limited dedicated resource redundancies. Moreover, by exploiting pertinent standard features of the 1394 interface which are not purposely designed for fault tolerance, we devise a comprehensive set of fault detection mechanisms to support the fault-tolerant bus architecture.

Dynamic Evolution Of Off-Fault Medium During An Earthquake: A Micromechanics Based Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Marion Y.; Bhat, Harsha S.

2018-05-01

Geophysical observations show a dramatic drop of seismic wave speeds in the shallow off-fault medium following earthquake ruptures. Seismic ruptures generate, or reactivate, damage around faults that alter the constitutive response of the surrounding medium, which in turn modifies the earthquake itself, the seismic radiation, and the near-fault ground motion. We present a micromechanics based constitutive model that accounts for dynamic evolution of elastic moduli at high-strain rates. We consider 2D in-plane models, with a 1D right lateral fault featuring slip-weakening friction law. The two scenarios studied here assume uniform initial off-fault damage and an observationally motivated exponential decay of initial damage with fault normal distance. Both scenarios produce dynamic damage that is consistent with geological observations. A small difference in initial damage actively impacts the final damage pattern. The second numerical experiment, in particular, highlights the complex feedback that exists between the evolving medium and the seismic event. We show that there is a unique off-fault damage pattern associated with supershear transition of an earthquake rupture that could be potentially seen as a geological signature of this transition. These scenarios presented here underline the importance of incorporating the complex structure of fault zone systems in dynamic models of earthquakes.

Dynamic Evolution Of Off-Fault Medium During An Earthquake: A Micromechanics Based Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, M. Y.; Bhat, H. S.

2017-12-01

Geophysical observations show a dramatic drop of seismic wave speeds in the shallow off-fault medium following earthquake ruptures. Seismic ruptures generate, or reactivate, damage around faults that alter the constitutive response of the surrounding medium, which in turn modifies the earthquake itself, the seismic radiation, and the near-fault ground motion. We present a micromechanics based constitutive model that accounts for dynamic evolution of elastic moduli at high-strain rates. We consider 2D in-plane models, with a 1D right lateral fault featuring slip-weakening friction law. The two scenarios studied here assume uniform initial off-fault damage and an observationally motivated exponential decay of initial damage with fault normal distance. Both scenarios produce dynamic damage that is consistent with geological observations. A small difference in initial damage actively impacts the final damage pattern. The second numerical experiment, in particular, highlights the complex feedback that exists between the evolving medium and the seismic event. We show that there is a unique off-fault damage pattern associated with supershear transition of an earthquake rupture that could be potentially seen as a geological signature of this transition. These scenarios presented here underline the importance of incorporating the complex structure of fault zone systems in dynamic models of earthquakes.

Effect of off-fault low-velocity elastic inclusions on supershear rupture dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xiao; Elbanna, A. E.

2015-10-01

Heterogeneous velocity structures are expected to affect fault rupture dynamics. To quantitatively evaluate some of these effects, we examine a model of dynamic rupture on a frictional fault embedded in an elastic full space, governed by plane strain elasticity, with a pair of off-fault inclusions that have a lower rigidity than the background medium. We solve the elastodynamic problem using the Finite Element software Pylith. The fault operates under linear slip-weakening friction law. We initiate the rupture by artificially overstressing a localized region near the left edge of the fault. We primarily consider embedded soft inclusions with 20 per cent reduction in both the pressure wave and shear wave speeds. The embedded inclusions are placed at different distances from the fault surface and have different sizes. We show that the existence of a soft inclusion may significantly shorten the transition length to supershear propagation through the Burridge-Andrews mechanism. We also observe that supershear rupture is generated at pre-stress values that are lower than what is theoretically predicted for a homogeneous medium. We discuss the implications of our results for dynamic rupture propagation in complex velocity structures as well as supershear propagation on understressed faults.

Dynamical Instability Produces Transform Faults at Mid-Ocean Ridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerya, Taras

2010-08-01

Transform faults at mid-ocean ridges—one of the most striking, yet enigmatic features of terrestrial plate tectonics—are considered to be the inherited product of preexisting fault structures. Ridge offsets along these faults therefore should remain constant with time. Here, numerical models suggest that transform faults are actively developing and result from dynamical instability of constructive plate boundaries, irrespective of previous structure. Boundary instability from asymmetric plate growth can spontaneously start in alternate directions along successive ridge sections; the resultant curved ridges become transform faults within a few million years. Fracture-related rheological weakening stabilizes ridge-parallel detachment faults. Offsets along the transform faults change continuously with time by asymmetric plate growth and discontinuously by ridge jumps.

Heterogeneous rupture on homogenous faults: Three-dimensional spontaneous rupture simulations with thermal pressurization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Yumi; Kuge, Keiko; Kase, Yuko

2008-11-01

To understand role of fluid on earthquake rupture processes, we investigated effects of thermal pressurization on spatial variation of dynamic rupture by computing spontaneous rupture propagation on a rectangular fault. We found thermal pressurization can cause heterogeneity of rupture even on a fault of uniform properties. On drained faults, tractions drop linearly with increasing slip in the same way everywhere. However, by changing the drained condition to an undrained one, the slip-weakening curves become non-linear and depend on locations on faults with small shear zone thickness w, and the dynamic frictional stresses vary spatially and temporally. Consequently, the super-shear transition fault length decreases for small w, and the final slip distribution can have some peaks regardless of w, especially on undrained faults. These effects should be taken into account of determining dynamic rupture parameters and modeling earthquake cycles when the presence of fluid is suggested in the source regions.

Slip complexity and frictional heterogeneities in dynamic fault models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bizzarri, A.

2005-12-01

The numerical modeling of earthquake rupture requires the specification of the fault system geometry, the mechanical properties of the media surrounding the fault, the initial conditions and the constitutive law for fault friction. The latter accounts for the fault zone properties and allows for the description of processes of nucleation, propagation, healing and arrest of a spontaneous rupture. In this work I solve the fundamental elasto-dynamic equation for a planar fault, adopting different constitutive equations (slip-dependent and rate- and state-dependent friction laws). We show that the slip patterns may be complicated by different causes. The spatial heterogeneities of constitutive parameters are able to cause the healing of slip, like barrier-healing or slip pulses. Our numerical experiments show that the heterogeneities of the parameter L affect the dynamic rupture propagation and weakly modify the dynamic stress drop and the rupture velocity. The heterogeneity of a and b parameters affects the dynamic rupture propagation in a more complex way: a velocity strengthening area (a > b) can arrest a dynamic rupture, but can be driven to an instability if suddenly loaded by the dynamic rupture front. Our simulations provide a picture of the complex interactions between fault patches having different frictional properties. Moreover, the slip distribution on the fault plane is complicated considering the effects of the rake rotation during the propagation: depending on the position on the fault plane, the orientation of instantaneous total dynamic traction can change with time with respect to the imposed initial stress direction. These temporal rake rotations depend on the amplitude of the initial stress and on its distribution. They also depend on the curvature and direction of the rupture front with respect to the imposed initial stress direction: this explains why rake rotations are mostly located near the rupture front and within the cohesive zone, where the breakdown processes take places. Finally, the rupture behavior, the fault slip distribution and the traction evolution may be changed and complicated including additional physical phenomena, like thermal pressurization of pore fluid (due to frictional heating). Our results involve interesting implications for slip duration and fracture energy.

Dynamic Aftershock Triggering Correlated with Cyclic Loading in the Slip Direction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardebeck, J.

2014-12-01

Dynamic stress changes have been shown to contribute to aftershock triggering, but the physical triggering mechanisms are not fully understood. Some proposed mechanisms are based on dynamic stress loading of the target fault in a direction that encourages earthquake slip (e.g. dynamic Coulomb stress triggering), while other mechanisms are based on fault weakening due to shaking. If dynamic stress loading in the fault slip direction plays a role in aftershock triggering, we would expect to see a relationship between the dynamic stress orientations and the aftershock focal mechanisms. Alternatively, if dynamic stress change triggering functions only through a fault weakening mechanism that is independent of the slip direction of the target fault, no such relationship is expected. I study aftershock sequences of 4 M≥6.7 mainshocks in southern California, and find a small but significant relationship between modeled dynamic stress direction and aftershock focal mechanisms. The mainshock dynamic stress changes have two observed impacts: changing the focal mechanisms in a given location to favor those aligned with the dynamic stress change, and changing the spatial distribution of seismicity to favor locations where the dynamic stress change aligns with the background stress. The aftershock focal mechanisms are significantly more aligned with the dynamic stress changes than the preshock mechanisms for only the first 0.5-1 year following most mainshocks, although for at least 10 years following Hector Mine. Dynamic stress effects on focal mechanisms are best observed at long periods (30-60 sec). Dynamic stress effects are only observed when using metrics based on repeated stress cycling in the same direction, for example considering the dominant stress orientation over the full time series, and not for the peak dynamic stress. These results imply that dynamic aftershock triggering operates at least in part through cyclic loading in the direction of fault slip, although non-directional fault weakening may be important as well. This suggests that the orientation of the dynamic stresses, as well as their amplitude, should be considered in the development of physics-based aftershock forecasting models.

Phase response curves for models of earthquake fault dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Franović, Igor, E-mail: franovic@ipb.ac.rs; Kostić, Srdjan; Perc, Matjaž

We systematically study effects of external perturbations on models describing earthquake fault dynamics. The latter are based on the framework of the Burridge-Knopoff spring-block system, including the cases of a simple mono-block fault, as well as the paradigmatic complex faults made up of two identical or distinct blocks. The blocks exhibit relaxation oscillations, which are representative for the stick-slip behavior typical for earthquake dynamics. Our analysis is carried out by determining the phase response curves of first and second order. For a mono-block fault, we consider the impact of a single and two successive pulse perturbations, further demonstrating how themore » profile of phase response curves depends on the fault parameters. For a homogeneous two-block fault, our focus is on the scenario where each of the blocks is influenced by a single pulse, whereas for heterogeneous faults, we analyze how the response of the system depends on whether the stimulus is applied to the block having a shorter or a longer oscillation period.« less

Fault-zone waves observed at the southern Joshua Tree earthquake rupture zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Leary, P.

1994-01-01

Waveform and spectral characteristics of several aftershocks of the M 6.1 22 April 1992 Joshua Tree earthquake recorded at stations just north of the Indio Hills in the Coachella Valley can be interpreted in terms of waves propagating within narrow, low-velocity, high-attenuation, vertical zones. Evidence for our interpretation consists of: (1) emergent P arrivals prior to and opposite in polarity to the impulsive direct phase; these arrivals can be modeled as headwaves indicative of a transfault velocity contrast; (2) spectral peaks in the S wave train that can be interpreted as internally reflected, low-velocity fault-zone wave energy; and (3) spatial selectivity of event-station pairs at which these data are observed, suggesting a long, narrow geologic structure. The observed waveforms are modeled using the analytical solution of Ben-Zion and Aki (1990) for a plane-parallel layered fault-zone structure. Synthetic waveform fits to the observed data indicate the presence of NS-trending vertical fault-zone layers characterized by a thickness of 50 to 100 m, a velocity decrease of 10 to 15% relative to the surrounding rock, and a P-wave quality factor in the range 25 to 50.

Probability and possibility-based representations of uncertainty in fault tree analysis.

PubMed

Flage, Roger; Baraldi, Piero; Zio, Enrico; Aven, Terje

2013-01-01

Expert knowledge is an important source of input to risk analysis. In practice, experts might be reluctant to characterize their knowledge and the related (epistemic) uncertainty using precise probabilities. The theory of possibility allows for imprecision in probability assignments. The associated possibilistic representation of epistemic uncertainty can be combined with, and transformed into, a probabilistic representation; in this article, we show this with reference to a simple fault tree analysis. We apply an integrated (hybrid) probabilistic-possibilistic computational framework for the joint propagation of the epistemic uncertainty on the values of the (limiting relative frequency) probabilities of the basic events of the fault tree, and we use possibility-probability (probability-possibility) transformations for propagating the epistemic uncertainty within purely probabilistic and possibilistic settings. The results of the different approaches (hybrid, probabilistic, and possibilistic) are compared with respect to the representation of uncertainty about the top event (limiting relative frequency) probability. Both the rationale underpinning the approaches and the computational efforts they require are critically examined. We conclude that the approaches relevant in a given setting depend on the purpose of the risk analysis, and that further research is required to make the possibilistic approaches operational in a risk analysis context. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Dynamic rupture scenarios from Sumatra to Iceland - High-resolution earthquake source physics on natural fault systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Ulrich, Thomas; Wollherr, Stephanie

2017-04-01

Capturing the observed complexity of earthquake sources in dynamic rupture simulations may require: non-linear fault friction, thermal and fluid effects, heterogeneous fault stress and fault strength initial conditions, fault curvature and roughness, on- and off-fault non-elastic failure. All of these factors have been independently shown to alter dynamic rupture behavior and thus possibly influence the degree of realism attainable via simulated ground motions. In this presentation we will show examples of high-resolution earthquake scenarios, e.g. based on the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, the 1994 Northridge earthquake and a potential rupture of the Husavik-Flatey fault system in Northern Iceland. The simulations combine a multitude of representations of source complexity at the necessary spatio-temporal resolution enabled by excellent scalability on modern HPC systems. Such simulations allow an analysis of the dominant factors impacting earthquake source physics and ground motions given distinct tectonic settings or distinct focuses of seismic hazard assessment. Across all simulations, we find that fault geometry concurrently with the regional background stress state provide a first order influence on source dynamics and the emanated seismic wave field. The dynamic rupture models are performed with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme for solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. Use of unstructured tetrahedral meshes allows for a realistic representation of the non-planar fault geometry, subsurface structure and bathymetry. The results presented highlight the fact that modern numerical methods are essential to further our understanding of earthquake source physics and complement both physic-based ground motion research and empirical approaches in seismic hazard analysis.

Fault Tree Based Diagnosis with Optimal Test Sequencing for Field Service Engineers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iverson, David L.; George, Laurence L.; Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Lum, Henry, Jr. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

When field service engineers go to customer sites to service equipment, they want to diagnose and repair failures quickly and cost effectively. Symptoms exhibited by failed equipment frequently suggest several possible causes which require different approaches to diagnosis. This can lead the engineer to follow several fruitless paths in the diagnostic process before they find the actual failure. To assist in this situation, we have developed the Fault Tree Diagnosis and Optimal Test Sequence (FTDOTS) software system that performs automated diagnosis and ranks diagnostic hypotheses based on failure probability and the time or cost required to isolate and repair each failure. FTDOTS first finds a set of possible failures that explain exhibited symptoms by using a fault tree reliability model as a diagnostic knowledge to rank the hypothesized failures based on how likely they are and how long it would take or how much it would cost to isolate and repair them. This ordering suggests an optimal sequence for the field service engineer to investigate the hypothesized failures in order to minimize the time or cost required to accomplish the repair task. Previously, field service personnel would arrive at the customer site and choose which components to investigate based on past experience and service manuals. Using FTDOTS running on a portable computer, they can now enter a set of symptoms and get a list of possible failures ordered in an optimal test sequence to help them in their decisions. If facilities are available, the field engineer can connect the portable computer to the malfunctioning device for automated data gathering. FTDOTS is currently being applied to field service of medical test equipment. The techniques are flexible enough to use for many different types of devices. If a fault tree model of the equipment and information about component failure probabilities and isolation times or costs are available, a diagnostic knowledge base for that device can be developed easily.

Integrating Insults: Using Fault Tree Analysis to Guide Schizophrenia Research across Levels of Analysis.

PubMed

MacDonald Iii, Angus W; Zick, Jennifer L; Chafee, Matthew V; Netoff, Theoden I

2015-01-01

The grand challenges of schizophrenia research are linking the causes of the disorder to its symptoms and finding ways to overcome those symptoms. We argue that the field will be unable to address these challenges within psychiatry's standard neo-Kraepelinian (DSM) perspective. At the same time the current corrective, based in molecular genetics and cognitive neuroscience, is also likely to flounder due to its neglect for psychiatry's syndromal structure. We suggest adopting a new approach long used in reliability engineering, which also serves as a synthesis of these approaches. This approach, known as fault tree analysis, can be combined with extant neuroscientific data collection and computational modeling efforts to uncover the causal structures underlying the cognitive and affective failures in people with schizophrenia as well as other complex psychiatric phenomena. By making explicit how causes combine from basic faults to downstream failures, this approach makes affordances for: (1) causes that are neither necessary nor sufficient in and of themselves; (2) within-diagnosis heterogeneity; and (3) between diagnosis co-morbidity.

Optical fiber-fault surveillance for passive optical networks in S-band operation window

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, Chien-Hung; Chi, Sien

2005-07-01

An S-band (1470 to 1520 nm) fiber laser scheme, which uses multiple fiber Bragg grating (FBG) elements as feedback elements on each passive branch, is proposed and described for in-service fault identification in passive optical networks (PONs). By tuning a wavelength selective filter located within the laser cavity over a gain bandwidth, the fiber-fault of each branch can be monitored without affecting the in-service channels. In our experiment, an S-band four-branch monitoring tree-structured PON system is demonstrated and investigated experimentally.

Optical fiber-fault surveillance for passive optical networks in S-band operation window.

PubMed

Yeh, Chien-Hung; Chi, Sien

2005-07-11

An S-band (1470 to 1520 nm) fiber laser scheme, which uses multiple fiber Bragg grating (FBG) elements as feedback elements on each passive branch, is proposed and described for in-service fault identification in passive optical networks (PONs). By tuning a wavelength selective filter located within the laser cavity over a gain bandwidth, the fiber-fault of each branch can be monitored without affecting the in-service channels. In our experiment, an S-band four-branch monitoring tree-structured PON system is demonstrated and investigated experimentally.

An Intelligent Gear Fault Diagnosis Methodology Using a Complex Wavelet Enhanced Convolutional Neural Network

PubMed Central

Sun, Weifang; Yao, Bin; Zeng, Nianyin; He, Yuchao; Cao, Xincheng; He, Wangpeng

2017-01-01

As a typical example of large and complex mechanical systems, rotating machinery is prone to diversified sorts of mechanical faults. Among these faults, one of the prominent causes of malfunction is generated in gear transmission chains. Although they can be collected via vibration signals, the fault signatures are always submerged in overwhelming interfering contents. Therefore, identifying the critical fault’s characteristic signal is far from an easy task. In order to improve the recognition accuracy of a fault’s characteristic signal, a novel intelligent fault diagnosis method is presented. In this method, a dual-tree complex wavelet transform (DTCWT) is employed to acquire the multiscale signal’s features. In addition, a convolutional neural network (CNN) approach is utilized to automatically recognise a fault feature from the multiscale signal features. The experiment results of the recognition for gear faults show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method, especially in the gear’s weak fault features. PMID:28773148

Earthquake cycle modeling of multi-segmented faults: dynamic rupture and ground motion simulation of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petukhin, A.; Galvez, P.; Somerville, P.; Ampuero, J. P.

2017-12-01

We perform earthquake cycle simulations to study the characteristics of source scaling relations and strong ground motions and in multi-segmented fault ruptures. For earthquake cycle modeling, a quasi-dynamic solver (QDYN, Luo et al, 2016) is used to nucleate events and the fully dynamic solver (SPECFEM3D, Galvez et al., 2014, 2016) is used to simulate earthquake ruptures. The Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake has been chosen as a target earthquake to validate our methodology. The SCEC fault geometry for the three-segmented Landers rupture is included and extended at both ends to a total length of 200 km. We followed the 2-D spatial correlated Dc distributions based on Hillers et. al. (2007) that associates Dc distribution with different degrees of fault maturity. The fault maturity is related to the variability of Dc on a microscopic scale. Large variations of Dc represents immature faults and lower variations of Dc represents mature faults. Moreover we impose a taper (a-b) at the fault edges and limit the fault depth to 15 km. Using these settings, earthquake cycle simulations are performed to nucleate seismic events on different sections of the fault, and dynamic rupture modeling is used to propagate the ruptures. The fault segmentation brings complexity into the rupture process. For instance, the change of strike between fault segments enhances strong variations of stress. In fact, Oglesby and Mai (2012) show the normal stress varies from positive (clamping) to negative (unclamping) between fault segments, which leads to favorable or unfavorable conditions for rupture growth. To replicate these complexities and the effect of fault segmentation in the rupture process, we perform earthquake cycles with dynamic rupture modeling and generate events similar to the Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake. We extract the asperities of these events and analyze the scaling relations between rupture area, average slip and combined area of asperities versus moment magnitude. Finally, the simulated ground motions will be validated by comparison of simulated response spectra with recorded response spectra and with response spectra from ground motion prediction models. This research is sponsored by the Japan Nuclear Regulation Authority.

Dynamic rupture simulations of the 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikōura earthquake: a cascading multi-fault event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrich, T.; Gabriel, A. A.; Ampuero, J. P.; Xu, W.; Feng, G.

2017-12-01

The Mw7.8 Kaikōura earthquake struck the Northern part of New Zealand's South Island roughly one year ago. It ruptured multiple segments of the contractional North Canterbury fault zone and of the Marlborough fault system. Field observations combined with satellite data suggest a rupture path involving partly unmapped faults separated by large stepover distances larger than 5 km, the maximum distance usually considered by the latest seismic hazard assessment methods. This might imply distant rupture transfer mechanisms generally not considered in seismic hazard assessment. We present high-resolution 3D dynamic rupture simulations of the Kaikōura earthquake under physically self-consistent initial stress and strength conditions. Our simulations are based on recent finite-fault slip inversions that constrain fault system geometry and final slip distribution from remote sensing, surface rupture and geodetic data (Xu et al., 2017). We assume a uniform background stress field, without lateral fault stress or strength heterogeneity. We use the open-source software SeisSol (www.seissol.org) which is based on an arbitrary high-order accurate DERivative Discontinuous Galerkin method (ADER-DG). Our method can account for complex fault geometries, high resolution topography and bathymetry, 3D subsurface structure, off-fault plasticity and modern friction laws. It enables the simulation of seismic wave propagation with high-order accuracy in space and time in complex media. We show that a cascading rupture driven by dynamic triggering can break all fault segments that were involved in this earthquake without mechanically requiring an underlying thrust fault. Our prefered fault geometry connects most fault segments: it does not features stepover larger than 2 km. The best scenario matches the main macroscopic characteristics of the earthquake, including its apparently slow rupture propagation caused by zigzag cascading, the moment magnitude and the overall inferred slip distribution. We observe a high sensitivity of cascading dynamics on fault-step over distance and off-fault energy dissipation.

Active Faults and Seismic Sources of the Middle East Region: Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulen, L.; EMME WP2 Team*

2011-12-01

The Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME) Project is a regional project of the GEM (Global Earthquake Model) project (http://www.emme-gem.org/). The EMME project covers Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Both EMME and SHARE projects overlap and Turkey becomes a bridge connecting the two projects. The Middle East region is tectonically and seismically very active part of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt. Many major earthquakes have occurred in this region over the years causing casualties in the millions. The EMME project consists of three main modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic modules. The EMME project uses PSHA approach for earthquake hazard and the existing source models have been revised or modified by the incorporation of newly acquired data. The most distinguishing aspect of the EMME project from the previous ones is its dynamic character. This very important characteristic is accomplished by the design of a flexible and scalable database that permits continuous update, refinement, and analysis. An up-to-date earthquake catalog of the Middle East region has been prepared and declustered by the WP1 team. EMME WP2 team has prepared a digital active fault map of the Middle East region in ArcGIS format. We have constructed a database of fault parameters for active faults that are capable of generating earthquakes above a threshold magnitude of Mw≥5.5. The EMME project database includes information on the geometry and rates of movement of faults in a "Fault Section Database", which contains 36 entries for each fault section. The "Fault Section" concept has a physical significance, in that if one or more fault parameters change, a new fault section is defined along a fault zone. So far 6,991 Fault Sections have been defined and 83,402 km of faults are fully parameterized in the Middle East region. A separate "Paleo-Sites Database" includes information on the timing and amounts of fault displacement for major fault zones. A digital reference library, that includes the pdf files of relevant papers, reports and maps, is also prepared. A logic tree approach is utilized to encompass different interpretations for the areas where there is no consensus. Finally seismic source zones in the Middle East region have been delineated using all available data. *EMME Project WP2 Team: Levent Gülen, Murat Utkucu, M. Dinçer Köksal, Hilal Yalçin, Yigit Ince, Mine Demircioglu, Shota Adamia, Nino Sadradze, Aleksandre Gvencadze, Arkadi Karakhanyan, Mher Avanesyan, Tahir Mammadli, Gurban Yetirmishli, Arif Axundov, Khaled Hessami, M. Asif Khan, M. Sayab.

Theoretical constraints on dynamic pulverization of fault zone rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shiqing; Ben-Zion, Yehuda

2017-04-01

We discuss dynamic rupture results aiming to elucidate the generation mechanism of pulverized fault zone rocks (PFZR) observed in 100-200 m wide belts distributed asymmetrically across major strike-slip faults separating different crustal blocks. Properties of subshear and supershear ruptures are considered using analytical results of Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics and numerical simulations of Mode-II ruptures along faults between similar or dissimilar solids. The dynamic fields of bimaterial subshear ruptures are expected to produce off-fault damage primarily on the stiff side of the fault, with tensile cracks having no preferred orientation, in agreement with field observations. Subshear ruptures in a homogeneous solid are expected to produce off-fault damage with high-angle tensile cracks on the extensional side of the fault, while supershear ruptures between similar or dissimilar solids are likely to produce off-fault damage on both sides of the fault with preferred tensile crack orientations. One or more of these features are not consistent with properties of natural samples of PFZR. At a distance of about 100 m from the fault, subshear and supershear ruptures without stress singularities produce strain rates up to 1 s-1. This is less than required for rock pulverization in laboratory experiments with centimetre-scale intact rock samples, but may be sufficient for pulverizing larger samples with pre-existing damage.

Impact of fault models on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment: the example of the West Corinth rift.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chartier, Thomas; Scotti, Oona; Boiselet, Aurelien; Lyon-Caen, Hélène

2016-04-01

Including faults in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment tends to increase the degree of uncertainty in the results due to the intrinsically uncertain nature of the fault data. This is especially the case in the low to moderate seismicity regions of Europe, where slow slipping faults are difficult to characterize. In order to better understand the key parameters that control the uncertainty in the fault-related hazard computations, we propose to build an analytic tool that provides a clear link between the different components of the fault-related hazard computations and their impact on the results. This will allow identifying the important parameters that need to be better constrained in order to reduce the resulting uncertainty in hazard and also provide a more hazard-oriented strategy for collecting relevant fault parameters in the field. The tool will be illustrated through the example of the West Corinth rifts fault-models. Recent work performed in the gulf has shown the complexity of the normal faulting system that is accommodating the extensional deformation of the rift. A logic-tree approach is proposed to account for this complexity and the multiplicity of scientifically defendable interpretations. At the nodes of the logic tree, different options that could be considered at each step of the fault-related seismic hazard will be considered. The first nodes represent the uncertainty in the geometries of the faults and their slip rates, which can derive from different data and methodologies. The subsequent node explores, for a given geometry/slip rate of faults, different earthquake rupture scenarios that may occur in the complex network of faults. The idea is to allow the possibility of several faults segments to break together in a single rupture scenario. To build these multiple-fault-segment scenarios, two approaches are considered: one based on simple rules (i.e. minimum distance between faults) and a second one that relies on physically-based simulations. The following nodes represents for each rupture scenario different rupture forecast models (i.e; characteristic or Gutenberg-Richter) and for a given rupture forecast, two probability models commonly used in seismic hazard assessment: poissonian or time-dependent. The final node represents an exhaustive set of ground motion prediction equations chosen in order to be compatible with the region. Finally, the expected probability of exceeding a given ground motion level is computed at each sites. Results will be discussed for a few specific localities of the West Corinth Gulf.

A fault diagnosis scheme for planetary gearboxes using modified multi-scale symbolic dynamic entropy and mRMR feature selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yongbo; Yang, Yuantao; Li, Guoyan; Xu, Minqiang; Huang, Wenhu

2017-07-01

Health condition identification of planetary gearboxes is crucial to reduce the downtime and maximize productivity. This paper aims to develop a novel fault diagnosis method based on modified multi-scale symbolic dynamic entropy (MMSDE) and minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR) to identify the different health conditions of planetary gearbox. MMSDE is proposed to quantify the regularity of time series, which can assess the dynamical characteristics over a range of scales. MMSDE has obvious advantages in the detection of dynamical changes and computation efficiency. Then, the mRMR approach is introduced to refine the fault features. Lastly, the obtained new features are fed into the least square support vector machine (LSSVM) to complete the fault pattern identification. The proposed method is numerically and experimentally demonstrated to be able to recognize the different fault types of planetary gearboxes.

Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David A.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Powers, Peter; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J.; Zeng, Yuehua

2015-01-01

The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in the previous approach for un-segmented models. The new methodology also supports magnitude-dependent aperiodicity and accounts for the historic open interval on faults that lack a date-of-last-event constraint. Epistemic uncertainties are represented with a logic tree, producing 5,760 different forecasts. Results for a variety of evaluation metrics are presented, including logic-tree sensitivity analyses and comparisons to the previous model (UCERF2). For 30-year M≥6.7 probabilities, the most significant changes from UCERF2 are a threefold increase on the Calaveras fault and a threefold decrease on the San Jacinto fault. Such changes are due mostly to differences in the time-independent models (e.g., fault slip rates), with relaxation of segmentation and inclusion of multi-fault ruptures being particularly influential. In fact, some UCERF2 faults were simply too long to produce M 6.7 sized events given the segmentation assumptions in that study. Probability model differences are also influential, with the implied gains (relative to a Poisson model) being generally higher in UCERF3. Accounting for the historic open interval is one reason. Another is an effective 27% increase in the total elastic-rebound-model weight. The exact factors influencing differences between UCERF2 and UCERF3, as well as the relative importance of logic-tree branches, vary throughout the region, and depend on the evaluation metric of interest. For example, M≥6.7 probabilities may not be a good proxy for other hazard or loss measures. This sensitivity, coupled with the approximate nature of the model and known limitations, means the applicability of UCERF3 should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

Rupture dynamics with energy loss outside the slip zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, D.J.

2005-01-01

Energy loss in a fault damage zone, outside the slip zone, contributes to the fracture energy that determines rupture velocity of an earthquake. A nonelastic two-dimensional dynamic calculation is done in which the slip zone is modeled as a fault plane and material off the fault is subject to a Coulomb yield condition. In a mode 2 crack-like solution in which an abrupt uniform drop of shear traction on the fault spreads from a point, Coulomb yielding occurs on the extensional side of the fault. Plastic strain is distributed with uniform magnitude along the fault, and it has a thickness normal to the fault proportional to propagation distance. Energy loss off the fault is also proportional to propagation distance, and it can become much larger than energy loss on the fault specified by the fault constitutive relation. The slip velocity function could be produced in an equivalent elastic problem by a slip-weakening friction law with breakdown slip Dc increasing with distance. Fracture energy G and equivalent Dc will be different in ruptures with different initiation points and stress drops, so they are not constitutive properties; they are determined by the dynamic solution that arrives at a particular point. Peak slip velocity is, however, a property of a fault location. Nonelastic response can be mimicked by imposing a limit on slip velocity on a fault in an elastic medium.

Neural computing for numeric-to-symbolic conversion in control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Passino, Kevin M.; Sartori, Michael A.; Antsaklis, Panos J.

1989-01-01

A type of neural network, the multilayer perceptron, is used to classify numeric data and assign appropriate symbols to various classes. This numeric-to-symbolic conversion results in a type of information extraction, which is similar to what is called data reduction in pattern recognition. The use of the neural network as a numeric-to-symbolic converter is introduced, its application in autonomous control is discussed, and several applications are studied. The perceptron is used as a numeric-to-symbolic converter for a discrete-event system controller supervising a continuous variable dynamic system. It is also shown how the perceptron can implement fault trees, which provide useful information (alarms) in a biological system and information for failure diagnosis and control purposes in an aircraft example.

ROBUS-2: A Fault-Tolerant Broadcast Communication System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo; Malekpour, Mahyar R.; Miner, Paul S.

2005-01-01

The Reliable Optical Bus (ROBUS) is the core communication system of the Scalable Processor-Independent Design for Enhanced Reliability (SPIDER), a general-purpose fault-tolerant integrated modular architecture currently under development at NASA Langley Research Center. The ROBUS is a time-division multiple access (TDMA) broadcast communication system with medium access control by means of time-indexed communication schedule. ROBUS-2 is a developmental version of the ROBUS providing guaranteed fault-tolerant services to the attached processing elements (PEs), in the presence of a bounded number of faults. These services include message broadcast (Byzantine Agreement), dynamic communication schedule update, clock synchronization, and distributed diagnosis (group membership). The ROBUS also features fault-tolerant startup and restart capabilities. ROBUS-2 is tolerant to internal as well as PE faults, and incorporates a dynamic self-reconfiguration capability driven by the internal diagnostic system. This version of the ROBUS is intended for laboratory experimentation and demonstrations of the capability to reintegrate failed nodes, dynamically update the communication schedule, and tolerate and recover from correlated transient faults.

Dynamics of folding: Impact of fault bend folds on earthquake cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sathiakumar, S.; Barbot, S.; Hubbard, J.

2017-12-01

Earthquakes in subduction zones and subaerial convergent margins are some of the largest in the world. So far, forecasts of future earthquakes have primarily relied on assessing past earthquakes to look for seismic gaps and slip deficits. However, the roles of fault geometry and off-fault plasticity are typically overlooked. We use structural geology (fault-bend folding theory) to inform fault modeling in order to better understand how deformation is accommodated on the geological time scale and through the earthquake cycle. Fault bends in megathrusts, like those proposed for the Nepal Himalaya, will induce folding of the upper plate. This introduces changes in the slip rate on different fault segments, and therefore on the loading rate at the plate interface, profoundly affecting the pattern of earthquake cycles. We develop numerical simulations of slip evolution under rate-and-state friction and show that this effect introduces segmentation of the earthquake cycle. In crustal dynamics, it is challenging to describe the dynamics of fault-bend folds, because the deformation is accommodated by small amounts of slip parallel to bedding planes ("flexural slip"), localized on axial surface, i.e. folding axes pinned to fault bends. We use dislocation theory to describe the dynamics of folding along these axial surfaces, using analytic solutions that provide displacement and stress kernels to simulate the temporal evolution of folding and assess the effects of folding on earthquake cycles. Studies of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal, have shown that fault geometry can affect earthquake segmentation. Here, we show that in addition to the fault geometry, the actual geology of the rocks in the hanging wall of the fault also affect critical parameters, including the loading rate on parts of the fault, based on fault-bend folding theory. Because loading velocity controls the recurrence time of earthquakes, these two effects together are likely to have a strong impact on the earthquake cycle.

Breaking down barriers in cooperative fault management: Temporal and functional information displays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, Scott S.; Woods, David D.

1994-01-01

At the highest level, the fundamental question addressed by this research is how to aid human operators engaged in dynamic fault management. In dynamic fault management there is some underlying dynamic process (an engineered or physiological process referred to as the monitored process - MP) whose state changes over time and whose behavior must be monitored and controlled. In these types of applications (dynamic, real-time systems), a vast array of sensor data is available to provide information on the state of the MP. Faults disturb the MP and diagnosis must be performed in parallel with responses to maintain process integrity and to correct the underlying problem. These situations frequently involve time pressure, multiple interacting goals, high consequences of failure, and multiple interleaved tasks.

Dynamic rupture scenarios from Sumatra to Iceland - High-resolution earthquake source physics on natural fault systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, A. A.; Madden, E. H.; Ulrich, T.; Wollherr, S.

2016-12-01

Capturing the observed complexity of earthquake sources in dynamic rupture simulations may require: non-linear fault friction, thermal and fluid effects, heterogeneous fault stress and strength initial conditions, fault curvature and roughness, on- and off-fault non-elastic failure. All of these factors have been independently shown to alter dynamic rupture behavior and thus possibly influence the degree of realism attainable via simulated ground motions. In this presentation we will show examples of high-resolution earthquake scenarios, e.g. based on the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake and a potential rupture of the Husavik-Flatey fault system in Northern Iceland. The simulations combine a multitude of representations of source complexity at the necessary spatio-temporal resolution enabled by excellent scalability on modern HPC systems. Such simulations allow an analysis of the dominant factors impacting earthquake source physics and ground motions given distinct tectonic settings or distinct focuses of seismic hazard assessment. Across all simulations, we find that fault geometry concurrently with the regional background stress state provide a first order influence on source dynamics and the emanated seismic wave field. The dynamic rupture models are performed with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme for solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. Use of unstructured tetrahedral meshes allows for a realistic representation of the non-planar fault geometry, subsurface structure and bathymetry. The results presented highlight the fact that modern numerical methods are essential to further our understanding of earthquake source physics and complement both physic-based ground motion research and empirical approaches in seismic hazard analysis.

Fault weakening and earthquake instability by powder lubrication

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reches, Z.; Lockner, D.A.

2010-01-01

Earthquake instability has long been attributed to fault weakening during accelerated slip1, and a central question of earthquake physics is identifying the mechanisms that control this weakening2. Even with much experimental effort2-12, the weakening mechanisms have remained enigmatic. Here we present evidence for dynamic weakening of experimental faults that are sheared at velocities approaching earthquake slip rates. The experimental faults, which were made of room-dry, solid granite blocks, quickly wore to form a fine-grain rock powder known as gouge. At modest slip velocities of 10-60mms-1, this newly formed gouge organized itself into a thin deforming layer that reduced the fault's strength by a factor of 2-3. After slip, the gouge rapidly 'aged' and the fault regained its strength in a matter of hours to days. Therefore, only newly formed gouge can weaken the experimental faults. Dynamic gouge formation is expected to be a common and effective mechanism of earthquake instability in the brittle crust as (1) gouge always forms during fault slip5,10,12-20; (2) fault-gouge behaves similarly to industrial powder lubricants21; (3) dynamic gouge formation explains various significant earthquake properties; and (4) gouge lubricant can form for a wide range of fault configurations, compositions and temperatures15. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Using T-Z plots as a graphical method to infer lithological variations from growth strata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelltort, Sébastien; Pochat, Stéphane; Van Den Driessche, Jean

2004-08-01

The 'T-Z plot' method consists of plotting the throw of sedimentary horizons across a growth fault versus their depth in the hanging wall. This method has been initially developed for the analysis of growth fault kinematics from seismic data. A brief analytical examination of such plots shows that they can also provide valuable information about the evolution of fault topography. When growth is a continuous process, stages of topography creation (fault scarp) and filling (of the space available in the hanging-wall) are related to non-dynamic (draping, mud-prone pelagic settling) and dynamic (sand-prone, dynamically deposited) sedimentation, respectively. In this case, the T-Z plot analysis becomes a powerful tool to predict major lithological variations on seismic profiles in faulted settings.

Rupture Dynamics Simulation for Non-Planar fault by a Curved Grid Finite Difference Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Zhu, G.; Chen, X.

2011-12-01

We first implement the non-staggered finite difference method to solve the dynamic rupture problem, with split-node, for non-planar fault. Split-node method for dynamic simulation has been used widely, because of that it's more precise to represent the fault plane than other methods, for example, thick fault, stress glut and so on. The finite difference method is also a popular numeric method to solve kinematic and dynamic problem in seismology. However, previous works focus most of theirs eyes on the staggered-grid method, because of its simplicity and computational efficiency. However this method has its own disadvantage comparing to non-staggered finite difference method at some fact for example describing the boundary condition, especially the irregular boundary, or non-planar fault. Zhang and Chen (2006) proposed the MacCormack high order non-staggered finite difference method based on curved grids to precisely solve irregular boundary problem. Based upon on this non-staggered grid method, we make success of simulating the spontaneous rupture problem. The fault plane is a kind of boundary condition, which could be irregular of course. So it's convinced that we could simulate rupture process in the case of any kind of bending fault plane. We will prove this method is valid in the case of Cartesian coordinate first. In the case of bending fault, the curvilinear grids will be used.

Studying the Effects of Transparent vs. Opaque Shallow Thrust Faults Using Synthetic P and SH Seismograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, D. E.; Aagaard, B. T.; Heaton, T. H.

2001-12-01

It has been hypothesized (Brune, 1996) that teleseismic inversions may underestimate the moment of shallow thrust fault earthquakes if energy becomes trapped in the hanging wall of the fault, i.e. if the fault boundary becomes opaque. We address this by creating and analyzing synthetic P and SH seismograms for a variety of friction models. There are a total of five models: (1) crack model (slip weakening) with instantaneous healing (2) crack model without healing (3) crack model with zero sliding friction (4) pulse model (slip and rate weakening) (5) prescribed model (Haskell-like rupture with the same final slip and peak slip-rate as model 4). Models 1-4 are all dynamic models where fault friction laws determine the rupture history. This allows feedback between the ongoing rupture and waves from the beginning of the rupture that hit the surface and reflect downwards. Hence, models 1-4 can exhibit opaque fault characteristics. Model 5, a prescribed rupture, allows for no interaction between the rupture and reflected waves, therefore, it is a transparent fault. We first produce source time functions for the different friction models by rupturing shallow thrust faults in 3-D dynamic finite-element simulations. The source time functions are used as point dislocations in a teleseismic body-wave code. We examine the P and SH waves for different azimuths and epicentral distances. The peak P and S first arrival displacement amplitudes for the crack, crack with healing and pulse models are all very similar. These dynamic models with opaque faults produce smaller peak P and S first arrivals than the prescribed, transparent fault. For example, a fault with strike = 90 degrees, azimuth = 45 degrees has P arrivals smaller by about 30% and S arrivals smaller by about 15%. The only dynamic model that doesn't fit this pattern is the crack model with zero sliding friction. It oscillates around its equilibrium position; therefore, it overshoots and yields an excessively large peak first arrival. In general, it appears that the dynamic, opaque faults have smaller peak teleseismic displacements that would lead to lower moment estimates by a modest amount.

Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME) Project: Active Fault Database for the Middle East Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gülen, L.; Wp2 Team

2010-12-01

The Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME) Project is a regional project of the umbrella GEM (Global Earthquake Model) project (http://www.emme-gem.org/). EMME project region includes Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Both EMME and SHARE projects overlap and Turkey becomes a bridge connecting the two projects. The Middle East region is tectonically and seismically very active part of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt. Many major earthquakes have occurred in this region over the years causing casualties in the millions. The EMME project will use PSHA approach and the existing source models will be revised or modified by the incorporation of newly acquired data. More importantly the most distinguishing aspect of the EMME project from the previous ones will be its dynamic character. This very important characteristic is accomplished by the design of a flexible and scalable database that will permit continuous update, refinement, and analysis. A digital active fault map of the Middle East region is under construction in ArcGIS format. We are developing a database of fault parameters for active faults that are capable of generating earthquakes above a threshold magnitude of Mw≥5.5. Similar to the WGCEP-2007 and UCERF-2 projects, the EMME project database includes information on the geometry and rates of movement of faults in a “Fault Section Database”. The “Fault Section” concept has a physical significance, in that if one or more fault parameters change, a new fault section is defined along a fault zone. So far over 3,000 Fault Sections have been defined and parameterized for the Middle East region. A separate “Paleo-Sites Database” includes information on the timing and amounts of fault displacement for major fault zones. A digital reference library that includes the pdf files of the relevant papers, reports is also being prepared. Another task of the WP-2 of the EMME project is to prepare a strain and slip rate map of the Middle East region by basically compiling already published data. The third task is to calculate b-values, Mmax and determine the activity rates. New data and evidences will be interpreted to revise or modify the existing source models. A logic tree approach will be utilized for the areas where there is no consensus to encompass different interpretations. Finally seismic source zones in the Middle East region will be delineated using all available data. EMME Project WP2 Team: Levent Gülen, Murat Utkucu, M. Dinçer Köksal, Hilal Domaç, Yigit Ince, Mine Demircioglu, Shota Adamia, Nino Sandradze, Aleksandre Gvencadze, Arkadi Karakhanyan, Mher Avanesyan, Tahir Mammadli, Gurban Yetirmishli, Arif Axundov, Khaled Hessami, M. Asif Khan, M. Sayab.

Combinatorial Optimization Algorithms for Dynamic Multiple Fault Diagnosis in Automotive and Aerospace Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kodali, Anuradha

In this thesis, we develop dynamic multiple fault diagnosis (DMFD) algorithms to diagnose faults that are sporadic and coupled. Firstly, we formulate a coupled factorial hidden Markov model-based (CFHMM) framework to diagnose dependent faults occurring over time (dynamic case). Here, we implement a mixed memory Markov coupling model to determine the most likely sequence of (dependent) fault states, the one that best explains the observed test outcomes over time. An iterative Gauss-Seidel coordinate ascent optimization method is proposed for solving the problem. A soft Viterbi algorithm is also implemented within the framework for decoding dependent fault states over time. We demonstrate the algorithm on simulated and real-world systems with coupled faults; the results show that this approach improves the correct isolation rate as compared to the formulation where independent fault states are assumed. Secondly, we formulate a generalization of set-covering, termed dynamic set-covering (DSC), which involves a series of coupled set-covering problems over time. The objective of the DSC problem is to infer the most probable time sequence of a parsimonious set of failure sources that explains the observed test outcomes over time. The DSC problem is NP-hard and intractable due to the fault-test dependency matrix that couples the failed tests and faults via the constraint matrix, and the temporal dependence of failure sources over time. Here, the DSC problem is motivated from the viewpoint of a dynamic multiple fault diagnosis problem, but it has wide applications in operations research, for e.g., facility location problem. Thus, we also formulated the DSC problem in the context of a dynamically evolving facility location problem. Here, a facility can be opened, closed, or can be temporarily unavailable at any time for a given requirement of demand points. These activities are associated with costs or penalties, viz., phase-in or phase-out for the opening or closing of a facility, respectively. The set-covering matrix encapsulates the relationship among the rows (tests or demand points) and columns (faults or locations) of the system at each time. By relaxing the coupling constraints using Lagrange multipliers, the DSC problem can be decoupled into independent subproblems, one for each column. Each subproblem is solved using the Viterbi decoding algorithm, and a primal feasible solution is constructed by modifying the Viterbi solutions via a heuristic. The proposed Viterbi-Lagrangian relaxation algorithm (VLRA) provides a measure of suboptimality via an approximate duality gap. As a major practical extension of the above problem, we also consider the problem of diagnosing faults with delayed test outcomes, termed delay-dynamic set-covering (DDSC), and experiment with real-world problems that exhibit masking faults. Also, we present simulation results on OR-library datasets (set-covering formulations are predominantly validated on these matrices in the literature), posed as facility location problems. Finally, we implement these algorithms to solve problems in aerospace and automotive applications. Firstly, we address the diagnostic ambiguity problem in aerospace and automotive applications by developing a dynamic fusion framework that includes dynamic multiple fault diagnosis algorithms. This improves the correct fault isolation rate, while minimizing the false alarm rates, by considering multiple faults instead of the traditional data-driven techniques based on single fault (class)-single epoch (static) assumption. The dynamic fusion problem is formulated as a maximum a posteriori decision problem of inferring the fault sequence based on uncertain outcomes of multiple binary classifiers over time. The fusion process involves three steps: the first step transforms the multi-class problem into dichotomies using error correcting output codes (ECOC), thereby solving the concomitant binary classification problems; the second step fuses the outcomes of multiple binary classifiers over time using a sliding window or block dynamic fusion method that exploits temporal data correlations over time. We solve this NP-hard optimization problem via a Lagrangian relaxation (variational) technique. The third step optimizes the classifier parameters, viz., probabilities of detection and false alarm, using a genetic algorithm. The proposed algorithm is demonstrated by computing the diagnostic performance metrics on a twin-spool commercial jet engine, an automotive engine, and UCI datasets (problems with high classification error are specifically chosen for experimentation). We show that the primal-dual optimization framework performed consistently better than any traditional fusion technique, even when it is forced to give a single fault decision across a range of classification problems. Secondly, we implement the inference algorithms to diagnose faults in vehicle systems that are controlled by a network of electronic control units (ECUs). The faults, originating from various interactions and especially between hardware and software, are particularly challenging to address. Our basic strategy is to divide the fault universe of such cyber-physical systems in a hierarchical manner, and monitor the critical variables/signals that have impact at different levels of interactions. The proposed diagnostic strategy is validated on an electrical power generation and storage system (EPGS) controlled by two ECUs in an environment with CANoe/MATLAB co-simulation. Eleven faults are injected with the failures originating in actuator hardware, sensor, controller hardware and software components. Diagnostic matrix is established to represent the relationship between the faults and the test outcomes (also known as fault signatures) via simulations. The results show that the proposed diagnostic strategy is effective in addressing the interaction-caused faults.

Simulating Large-Scale Earthquake Dynamic Rupture Scenarios On Natural Fault Zones Using the ADER-DG Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, Alice; Pelties, Christian

2014-05-01

In this presentation we will demonstrate the benefits of using modern numerical methods to support physic-based ground motion modeling and research. For this purpose, we utilize SeisSol an arbitrary high-order derivative Discontinuous Galerkin (ADER-DG) scheme to solve the spontaneous rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time using three-dimensional unstructured tetrahedral meshes. We recently verified the method in various advanced test cases of the 'SCEC/USGS Dynamic Earthquake Rupture Code Verification Exercise' benchmark suite, including branching and dipping fault systems, heterogeneous background stresses, bi-material faults and rate-and-state friction constitutive formulations. Now, we study the dynamic rupture process using 3D meshes of fault systems constructed from geological and geophysical constraints, such as high-resolution topography, 3D velocity models and fault geometries. Our starting point is a large scale earthquake dynamic rupture scenario based on the 1994 Northridge blind thrust event in Southern California. Starting from this well documented and extensively studied event, we intend to understand the ground-motion, including the relevant high frequency content, generated from complex fault systems and its variation arising from various physical constraints. For example, our results imply that the Northridge fault geometry favors a pulse-like rupture behavior.

Redundancy management for efficient fault recovery in NASA's distributed computing system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malek, Miroslaw; Pandya, Mihir; Yau, Kitty

1991-01-01

The management of redundancy in computer systems was studied and guidelines were provided for the development of NASA's fault-tolerant distributed systems. Fault recovery and reconfiguration mechanisms were examined. A theoretical foundation was laid for redundancy management by efficient reconfiguration methods and algorithmic diversity. Algorithms were developed to optimize the resources for embedding of computational graphs of tasks in the system architecture and reconfiguration of these tasks after a failure has occurred. The computational structure represented by a path and the complete binary tree was considered and the mesh and hypercube architectures were targeted for their embeddings. The innovative concept of Hybrid Algorithm Technique was introduced. This new technique provides a mechanism for obtaining fault tolerance while exhibiting improved performance.

Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

2018-04-01

There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

A grid-doubling finite-element technique for calculating dynamic three-dimensional spontaneous rupture on an earthquake fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barall, Michael

2009-01-01

We present a new finite-element technique for calculating dynamic 3-D spontaneous rupture on an earthquake fault, which can reduce the required computational resources by a factor of six or more, without loss of accuracy. The grid-doubling technique employs small cells in a thin layer surrounding the fault. The remainder of the modelling volume is filled with larger cells, typically two or four times as large as the small cells. In the resulting non-conforming mesh, an interpolation method is used to join the thin layer of smaller cells to the volume of larger cells. Grid-doubling is effective because spontaneous rupture calculations typically require higher spatial resolution on and near the fault than elsewhere in the model volume. The technique can be applied to non-planar faults by morphing, or smoothly distorting, the entire mesh to produce the desired 3-D fault geometry. Using our FaultMod finite-element software, we have tested grid-doubling with both slip-weakening and rate-and-state friction laws, by running the SCEC/USGS 3-D dynamic rupture benchmark problems. We have also applied it to a model of the Hayward fault, Northern California, which uses realistic fault geometry and rock properties. FaultMod implements fault slip using common nodes, which represent motion common to both sides of the fault, and differential nodes, which represent motion of one side of the fault relative to the other side. We describe how to modify the traction-at-split-nodes method to work with common and differential nodes, using an implicit time stepping algorithm.

3D fault curvature and fractal roughness: Insights for rupture dynamics and ground motions using a Discontinous Galerkin method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrich, Thomas; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes

2017-04-01

Natural fault geometries are subject to a large degree of uncertainty. Their geometrical structure is not directly observable and may only be inferred from surface traces, or geophysical measurements. Most studies aiming at assessing the potential seismic hazard of natural faults rely on idealised shaped models, based on observable large-scale features. Yet, real faults are wavy at all scales, their geometric features presenting similar statistical properties from the micro to the regional scale. Dynamic rupture simulations aim to capture the observed complexity of earthquake sources and ground-motions. From a numerical point of view, incorporating rough faults in such simulations is challenging - it requires optimised codes able to run efficiently on high-performance computers and simultaneously handle complex geometries. Physics-based rupture dynamics hosted by rough faults appear to be much closer to source models inverted from observation in terms of complexity. Moreover, the simulated ground-motions present many similarities with observed ground-motions records. Thus, such simulations may foster our understanding of earthquake source processes, and help deriving more accurate seismic hazard estimates. In this presentation, the software package SeisSol (www.seissol.org), based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme, is used to solve the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem. The usage of tetrahedral unstructured meshes naturally allows for complicated fault geometries. However, SeisSol's high-order discretisation in time and space is not particularly suited for small-scale fault roughness. We will demonstrate modelling conditions under which SeisSol resolves rupture dynamics on rough faults accurately. The strong impact of the geometric gradient of the fault surface on the rupture process is then shown in 3D simulations. Following, the benefits of explicitly modelling fault curvature and roughness, in distinction to prescribing heterogeneous initial stress conditions on a planar fault, is demonstrated. Furthermore, we show that rupture extend, rupture front coherency and rupture speed are highly dependent on the initial amplitude of stress acting on the fault, defined by the normalized prestress factor R, the ratio of the potential stress drop over the breakdown stress drop. The effects of fault complexity are particularly pronounced for lower R. By low-pass filtering a rough fault at several cut-off wavelengths, we then try to capture rupture complexity using a simplified fault geometry. We find that equivalent source dynamics can only be obtained using a scarcely filtered fault associated with a reduced stress level. To investigate the wavelength-dependent roughness effect, the fault geometry is bandpass-filtered over several spectral ranges. We show that geometric fluctuations cause rupture velocity fluctuations of similar length scale. The impact of fault geometry is especially pronounced when the rupture front velocity is near supershear. Roughness fluctuations significantly smaller than the rupture front characteristic dimension (cohesive zone size) affect only macroscopic rupture properties, thus, posing a minimum length scale limiting the required resolution of 3D fault complexity. Lastly, the effect of fault curvature and roughness on the simulated ground-motions is assessed. Despite employing a simple linear slip weakening friction law, the simulated ground-motions compare well with estimates from ground motions prediction equations, even at relatively high frequencies.

Risk-Informed Safety Assurance and Probabilistic Assessment of Mission-Critical Software-Intensive Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guarro, Sergio B.

2010-01-01

This report validates and documents the detailed features and practical application of the framework for software intensive digital systems risk assessment and risk-informed safety assurance presented in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for Managers and Practitioner. This framework, called herein the "Context-based Software Risk Model" (CSRM), enables the assessment of the contribution of software and software-intensive digital systems to overall system risk, in a manner which is entirely compatible and integrated with the format of a "standard" Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), as currently documented and applied for NASA missions and applications. The CSRM also provides a risk-informed path and criteria for conducting organized and systematic digital system and software testing so that, within this risk-informed paradigm, the achievement of a quantitatively defined level of safety and mission success assurance may be targeted and demonstrated. The framework is based on the concept of context-dependent software risk scenarios and on the modeling of such scenarios via the use of traditional PRA techniques - i.e., event trees and fault trees - in combination with more advanced modeling devices such as the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) or other dynamic logic-modeling representations. The scenarios can be synthesized and quantified in a conditional logic and probabilistic formulation. The application of the CSRM method documented in this report refers to the MiniAERCam system designed and developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center.

Using Decision Trees to Detect and Isolate Simulated Leaks in the J-2X Rocket Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwabacher, Mark A.; Aguilar, Robert; Figueroa, Fernando F.

2009-01-01

The goal of this work was to use data-driven methods to automatically detect and isolate faults in the J-2X rocket engine. It was decided to use decision trees, since they tend to be easier to interpret than other data-driven methods. The decision tree algorithm automatically "learns" a decision tree by performing a search through the space of possible decision trees to find one that fits the training data. The particular decision tree algorithm used is known as C4.5. Simulated J-2X data from a high-fidelity simulator developed at Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne and known as the Detailed Real-Time Model (DRTM) was used to "train" and test the decision tree. Fifty-six DRTM simulations were performed for this purpose, with different leak sizes, different leak locations, and different times of leak onset. To make the simulations as realistic as possible, they included simulated sensor noise, and included a gradual degradation in both fuel and oxidizer turbine efficiency. A decision tree was trained using 11 of these simulations, and tested using the remaining 45 simulations. In the training phase, the C4.5 algorithm was provided with labeled examples of data from nominal operation and data including leaks in each leak location. From the data, it "learned" a decision tree that can classify unseen data as having no leak or having a leak in one of the five leak locations. In the test phase, the decision tree produced very low false alarm rates and low missed detection rates on the unseen data. It had very good fault isolation rates for three of the five simulated leak locations, but it tended to confuse the remaining two locations, perhaps because a large leak at one of these two locations can look very similar to a small leak at the other location.

Strain-dependent Damage Evolution and Velocity Reduction in Fault Zones Induced by Earthquake Rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, J.; Duan, B.

2009-12-01

Low-velocity fault zones (LVFZs) with reduced seismic velocities relative to the surrounding wall rocks are widely observed around active faults. The presence of such a zone will affect rupture propagation, near-field ground motion, and off-fault damage in subsequent earth-quakes. In this study, we quantify the reduction of seismic velocities caused by dynamic rup-ture on a 2D planar fault surrounded by a low-velocity fault zone. First, we implement the damage rheology (Lyakhovsky et al. 1997) in EQdyna (Duan and Oglesby 2006), an explicit dynamic finite element code. We further extend this damage rheology model to include the dependence of strains on crack density. Then, we quantify off-fault continuum damage distribution and velocity reduction induced by earthquake rupture with the presence of a preexisting LVFZ. We find that the presence of a LVFZ affects the tempo-spatial distribu-tions of off-fault damage. Because lack of constraint in some damage parameters, we further investigate the relationship between velocity reduction and these damage prameters by a large suite of numerical simulations. Slip velocity, slip, and near-field ground motions computed from damage rheology are also compared with those from off-fault elastic or elastoplastic responses. We find that the reduction in elastic moduli during dynamic rupture has profound impact on these quantities.

Integrating Insults: Using Fault Tree Analysis to Guide Schizophrenia Research across Levels of Analysis

PubMed Central

MacDonald III, Angus W.; Zick, Jennifer L.; Chafee, Matthew V.; Netoff, Theoden I.

2016-01-01

The grand challenges of schizophrenia research are linking the causes of the disorder to its symptoms and finding ways to overcome those symptoms. We argue that the field will be unable to address these challenges within psychiatry’s standard neo-Kraepelinian (DSM) perspective. At the same time the current corrective, based in molecular genetics and cognitive neuroscience, is also likely to flounder due to its neglect for psychiatry’s syndromal structure. We suggest adopting a new approach long used in reliability engineering, which also serves as a synthesis of these approaches. This approach, known as fault tree analysis, can be combined with extant neuroscientific data collection and computational modeling efforts to uncover the causal structures underlying the cognitive and affective failures in people with schizophrenia as well as other complex psychiatric phenomena. By making explicit how causes combine from basic faults to downstream failures, this approach makes affordances for: (1) causes that are neither necessary nor sufficient in and of themselves; (2) within-diagnosis heterogeneity; and (3) between diagnosis co-morbidity. PMID:26779007

3-D Dynamic rupture simulation for the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake sequence: Foreshocks and M6 dynamically triggered event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ando, R.; Aoki, Y.; Uchide, T.; Imanishi, K.; Matsumoto, S.; Nishimura, T.

2016-12-01

A couple of interesting earthquake rupture phenomena were observed associated with the sequence of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake sequence. The sequence includes the April 15, 2016, Mw 7.0, mainshock, which was preceded by multiple M6-class foreshock. The mainshock mainly broke the Futagawa fault segment striking NE-SW direction extending over 50km, and it further triggered a M6-class earthquake beyond the distance more than 50km to the northeast (Uchide et al., 2016, submitted), where an active volcano is situated. Compiling the data of seismic analysis and InSAR, we presumed this dynamic triggering event occurred on an active fault known as Yufuin fault (Ando et al., 2016, JPGU general assembly). It is also reported that the coseismic slip was significantly large at a shallow portion of Futagawa Fault near Aso volcano. Since the seismogenic depth becomes significantly shallower in these two areas, we presume the geothermal anomaly play a role as well as the elasto-dynamic processes associated with the coseismic rupture. In this study, we conducted a set of fully dynamic simulations of the earthquake rupture process by assuming the inferred 3D fault geometry and the regional stress field obtained referring the stress tensor inversion. As a result, we showed that the dynamic rupture process was mainly controlled by the irregularity of the fault geometry subjected to the gently varying regional stress field. The foreshocks ruptures have been arrested at the juncture of the branch faults. We also show that the dynamic triggering of M-6 class earthquakes occurred along the Yufuin fault segment (located 50 km NE) because of the strong stress transient up to a few hundreds of kPa due to the rupture directivity effect of the M-7 event. It is also shown that the geothermal condition may lead to the susceptible condition of the dynamic triggering by considering the plastic shear zone on the down dip extension of the Yufuin segment, situated in the vicinity of an active volcano.

Geology of Joshua Tree National Park geodatabase

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powell, Robert E.; Matti, Jonathan C.; Cossette, Pamela M.

2015-09-16

The database in this Open-File Report describes the geology of Joshua Tree National Park and was completed in support of the National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and in cooperation with the National Park Service (NPS). The geologic observations and interpretations represented in the database are relevant to both the ongoing scientific interests of the USGS in southern California and the management requirements of NPS, specifically of Joshua Tree National Park (JOTR).Joshua Tree National Park is situated within the eastern part of California’s Transverse Ranges province and straddles the transition between the Mojave and Sonoran deserts. The geologically diverse terrain that underlies JOTR reveals a rich and varied geologic evolution, one that spans nearly two billion years of Earth history. The Park’s landscape is the current expression of this evolution, its varied landforms reflecting the differing origins of underlying rock types and their differing responses to subsequent geologic events. Crystalline basement in the Park consists of Proterozoic plutonic and metamorphic rocks intruded by a composite Mesozoic batholith of Triassic through Late Cretaceous plutons arrayed in northwest-trending lithodemic belts. The basement was exhumed during the Cenozoic and underwent differential deep weathering beneath a low-relief erosion surface, with the deepest weathering profiles forming on quartz-rich, biotite-bearing granitoid rocks. Disruption of the basement terrain by faults of the San Andreas system began ca. 20 Ma and the JOTR sinistral domain, preceded by basalt eruptions, began perhaps as early as ca. 7 Ma, but no later than 5 Ma. Uplift of the mountain blocks during this interval led to erosional stripping of the thick zones of weathered quartz-rich granitoid rocks to form etchplains dotted by bouldery tors—the iconic landscape of the Park. The stripped debris filled basins along the fault zones.Mountain ranges and basins in the Park exhibit an east-west physiographic grain controlled by left-lateral fault zones that form a sinistral domain within the broad zone of dextral shear along the transform boundary between the North American and Pacific plates. Geologic and geophysical evidence reveal that movement on the sinistral faults zones has resulted in left steps along the zones, resulting in the development of sub-basins beneath Pinto Basin and Shavers and Chuckwalla Valleys. The sinistral fault zones connect the Mojave Desert dextral faults of the Eastern California Shear Zone to the north and east with the Coachella Valley strands of the southern San Andreas Fault Zone to the west.Quaternary surficial deposits accumulated in alluvial washes and playas and lakes along the valley floors; in alluvial fans, washes, and sheet wash aprons along piedmonts flanking the mountain ranges; and in eolian dunes and sand sheets that span the transition from valley floor to piedmont slope. Sequences of Quaternary pediments are planed into piedmonts flanking valley-floor and upland basins, each pediment in turn overlain by successively younger residual and alluvial surficial deposits.

Effect of fault roughness on aftershock distribution and post co-seismic strain accumulation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aslam, K.; Daub, E. G.

2017-12-01

We perform physics-based simulations of earthquake rupture propagation on geometrically complex strike-slip faults. We consider many different realization of the fault roughness and obtain heterogeneous stress fields by performing dynamic rupture simulation of large earthquakes. We calculate the Coulomb failure function (CFF) for all these realizations so that we can quantify zones of stress increase/shadows surrounding the main fault and compare our results to seismic catalogs. To do this comparison, we use relocated earthquake catalogs from Northern and Southern California. We specify the range of fault roughness parameters based on past observational studies. The Hurst exponent (H) varies in range from 0.5 to 1 and RMS height to wavelength ratio ( RMS deviation of a fault profile from planarity) has values between 10-2 to 10-3. For any realization of fault roughness, the Probability density function (PDF) values relative to the mean CFF change show a wider spread near the fault and this spread squeezes into a narrow band as we move away from fault. For lower value of RMS ratio ( 10-3), we see bigger zones of stress change near the hypocenter and for higher value of RMS ratio ( 10-2), we see alternate zones of stress increase/decrease surrounding the fault to have comparable lengths. We also couple short-term dynamic rupture simulation with long-term tectonic modelling. We do this by giving the stress output from one of the dynamic rupture simulation (of a single realization of fault roughness) to long term tectonic model (LTM) as initial condition and then run LTM over duration of seismic cycle. This short term and long term coupling enables us to understand how heterogeneous stresses due to fault geometry influence the dynamics of strain accumulation in the post-seismic and inter-seismic phase of seismic cycle.

Improved FTA methodology and application to subsea pipeline reliability design.

PubMed

Lin, Jing; Yuan, Yongbo; Zhang, Mingyuan

2014-01-01

An innovative logic tree, Failure Expansion Tree (FET), is proposed in this paper, which improves on traditional Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). It describes a different thinking approach for risk factor identification and reliability risk assessment. By providing a more comprehensive and objective methodology, the rather subjective nature of FTA node discovery is significantly reduced and the resulting mathematical calculations for quantitative analysis are greatly simplified. Applied to the Useful Life phase of a subsea pipeline engineering project, the approach provides a more structured analysis by constructing a tree following the laws of physics and geometry. Resulting improvements are summarized in comparison table form.

Improved FTA Methodology and Application to Subsea Pipeline Reliability Design

PubMed Central

Lin, Jing; Yuan, Yongbo; Zhang, Mingyuan

2014-01-01

An innovative logic tree, Failure Expansion Tree (FET), is proposed in this paper, which improves on traditional Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). It describes a different thinking approach for risk factor identification and reliability risk assessment. By providing a more comprehensive and objective methodology, the rather subjective nature of FTA node discovery is significantly reduced and the resulting mathematical calculations for quantitative analysis are greatly simplified. Applied to the Useful Life phase of a subsea pipeline engineering project, the approach provides a more structured analysis by constructing a tree following the laws of physics and geometry. Resulting improvements are summarized in comparison table form. PMID:24667681

Proceedings of Workshop XVI; The dynamic characteristics of faulting inferred from recordings of strong ground motion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boatwright, John; Jacobson, Muriel L.

1982-01-01

The strong ground motions radiated by earthquake faulting are controlled by the dynamic characteristics of the faulting process. Although this assertion seems self-evident, seismologists have only recently begun to derive and test quantitative relations between common measures of strong ground motion and the dynamic characteristics of faulting. Interest in this problem has increased dramatically in past several years, however, resulting in a number of important advances. The research presented in this workshop is a significant part of this scientific development. Watching this development occur through the work of many scientists is exciting; to be able to gather a number of these scientists together in one workshop is a remarkable opportunity.

Reproducing the scaling laws for Slow and Fast ruptures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanet, Pierre; Bhat, Harsha; Madariaga, Raúl

2017-04-01

Modelling long term behaviour of large, natural fault systems, that are geometrically complex, is a challenging problem. This is why most of the research so far has concentrated on modelling the long term response of single planar fault system. To overcome this limitation, we appeal to a novel algorithm called the Fast Multipole Method which was developed in the context of modelling gravitational N-body problems. This method allows us to decrease the computational complexity of the calculation from O(N2) to O(N log N), N being the number of discretised elements on the fault. We then adapted this method to model the long term quasi-dynamic response of two faults, with step-over like geometry, that are governed by rate and state friction laws. We assume the faults have spatially uniform rate weakening friction. The results show that when stress interaction between faults is accounted, a complex spectrum of slip (including slow-slip events, dynamic ruptures and partial ruptures) emerges naturally. The simulated slow-slip and dynamic events follow the scaling law inferred by Ide et al. 2007 i. e. M ∝ T for slow-slip events and M ∝ T2 (in 2D) for dynamic events.

[Sectional structure of a tree. Model analysis of the vertical biomass distribution].

PubMed

Galitskiĭ, V V

2010-01-01

A model has been proposed for the architecture of a tree in which virtual trees appear rhythmically on the treetop. Each consecutive virtual tree is a part of the previous tree. The difference between two adjacent virtual trees is a section--an element of the real tree structure. In case of a spruce, the section represents a verticil of a stem with the corresponding internode. Dynamics of a photosynthesizing part of the physiologically active biomass of each section differ from the corresponding dynamics of the virtual trees and the whole real tree. If the tree biomass dynamics has a sigma-shaped form, then the section dynamics have to be bell-shaped. It means that the lower stem should accordingly become bare, which is typically observed in nature. Model analysis reveals the limiting, in the age, form of trees to be an "umbrella". It can be observed in nature and is an outcome of physical limitation of the tree height combined with the sigma-shaped form of the tree biomass dynamics. Variation of model parameters provides for various forms of the tree biomass distribution along the height, which can be associated with certain biological species of trees.

Theoretical Constraints on Properties of Dynamic Ruptures Implied by Pulverized Fault Zone Rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, S.; Ben-Zion, Y.

2016-12-01

Prominent belts of Pulverized Fault Zone Rocks (PFZR) have been observed adjacent to several major strike-slip faults that separate different crustal blocks. They consist of 100-200m wide zones of highly damaged rock products, primarily of crystalline origin, that were mechanically shattered to sub-micron scale while preserving most of their original fabric with little evidence of shear. PFZR are strongly asymmetric with respect to the fault trace, existing primarily on the side with higher seismic velocity at depth, and their fabric suggests volumetric deformation with tensile cracks in all directions (e.g., Dor et al., 2006; Rockwell et al., 2009; Mitchell et al., 2011). Generating with split Hopkinson pressure bar in intact cm-scale sample microstructures similar to those observed in PFZR requires strain-rates higher than 150/s (e.g., Doan and Gary, 2009; Yuan et al., 2011). Using samples with preexisting damage reduces the strain-rate required for pulverization by 50% (Doan and d'Hour, 2012). These laboratory observations support earlier suggestions that PFZR are produced by dynamic stress fields at the tip of earthquake ruptures (e.g., Ben-Zion and Shi, 2005; Reches and Dewers, 2005). To clarify the conditions associated with generation of PFZR, we discuss theoretical results based on Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics and simulations of Mode-II dynamic ruptures on frictional faults (Xu and Ben-Zion, 2016). We consider subshear and supershear ruptures along faults between similar and dissimilar solids. The results indicate that strain-rates higher than 150/s can be generated at distance of about 100m from the fault by either subshear ruptures on a bimaterial interface or supershear ruptures between similar and dissimilar solids. The dynamic fields of subshear bimaterial ruptures are expected to produce off-fault damage primarily on the stiff side of the fault, with tensile cracks that have no preferred orientation, in agreement with observations. In contrast, the supershear ruptures are likely to produce off-fault damage on both sides of the fault with preferred tensile crack orientations. Additional laboratory tests with multi-axial tension and larger samples with preexisting damage can clarify further the dynamic conditions implied by observed PFZR.

Application of dynamic uncertain causality graph in spacecraft fault diagnosis: Logic cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Quanying; Zhang, Qin; Liu, Peng; Yang, Ping; Zhu, Ma; Wang, Xiaochen

2017-04-01

Intelligent diagnosis system are applied to fault diagnosis in spacecraft. Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph (DUCG) is a new probability graphic model with many advantages. In the knowledge expression of spacecraft fault diagnosis, feedback among variables is frequently encountered, which may cause directed cyclic graphs (DCGs). Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) such as bayesian network (BN) have been widely applied in uncertain causality representation and probabilistic reasoning, but BN does not allow DCGs. In this paper, DUGG is applied to fault diagnosis in spacecraft: introducing the inference algorithm for the DUCG to deal with feedback. Now, DUCG has been tested in 16 typical faults with 100% diagnosis accuracy.

Numerical simulations of earthquakes and the dynamics of fault systems using the Finite Element method.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettle, L. M.; Mora, P.; Weatherley, D.; Gross, L.; Xing, H.

2006-12-01

Simulations using the Finite Element method are widely used in many engineering applications and for the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs). Computational models based on the solution of PDEs play a key role in earth systems simulations. We present numerical modelling of crustal fault systems where the dynamic elastic wave equation is solved using the Finite Element method. This is achieved using a high level computational modelling language, escript, available as open source software from ACcESS (Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator), the University of Queensland. Escript is an advanced geophysical simulation software package developed at ACcESS which includes parallel equation solvers, data visualisation and data analysis software. The escript library was implemented to develop a flexible Finite Element model which reliably simulates the mechanism of faulting and the physics of earthquakes. Both 2D and 3D elastodynamic models are being developed to study the dynamics of crustal fault systems. Our final goal is to build a flexible model which can be applied to any fault system with user-defined geometry and input parameters. To study the physics of earthquake processes, two different time scales must be modelled, firstly the quasi-static loading phase which gradually increases stress in the system (~100years), and secondly the dynamic rupture process which rapidly redistributes stress in the system (~100secs). We will discuss the solution of the time-dependent elastic wave equation for an arbitrary fault system using escript. This involves prescribing the correct initial stress distribution in the system to simulate the quasi-static loading of faults to failure; determining a suitable frictional constitutive law which accurately reproduces the dynamics of the stick/slip instability at the faults; and using a robust time integration scheme. These dynamic models generate data and information that can be used for earthquake forecasting.

Time-dependent seismic hazard analysis for the Greater Tehran and surrounding areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalalalhosseini, Seyed Mostafa; Zafarani, Hamid; Zare, Mehdi

2018-01-01

This study presents a time-dependent approach for seismic hazard in Tehran and surrounding areas. Hazard is evaluated by combining background seismic activity, and larger earthquakes may emanate from fault segments. Using available historical and paleoseismological data or empirical relation, the recurrence time and maximum magnitude of characteristic earthquakes for the major faults have been explored. The Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution has been used to calculate equivalent fictitious seismicity rate for major faults in the region. To include ground motion uncertainty, a logic tree and five ground motion prediction equations have been selected based on their applicability in the region. Finally, hazard maps have been presented.

Integrated Fault Diagnosis Algorithm for Motor Sensors of In-Wheel Independent Drive Electric Vehicles.

PubMed

Jeon, Namju; Lee, Hyeongcheol

2016-12-12

An integrated fault-diagnosis algorithm for a motor sensor of in-wheel independent drive electric vehicles is presented. This paper proposes a method that integrates the high- and low-level fault diagnoses to improve the robustness and performance of the system. For the high-level fault diagnosis of vehicle dynamics, a planar two-track non-linear model is first selected, and the longitudinal and lateral forces are calculated. To ensure redundancy of the system, correlation between the sensor and residual in the vehicle dynamics is analyzed to detect and separate the fault of the drive motor system of each wheel. To diagnose the motor system for low-level faults, the state equation of an interior permanent magnet synchronous motor is developed, and a parity equation is used to diagnose the fault of the electric current and position sensors. The validity of the high-level fault-diagnosis algorithm is verified using Carsim and Matlab/Simulink co-simulation. The low-level fault diagnosis is verified through Matlab/Simulink simulation and experiments. Finally, according to the residuals of the high- and low-level fault diagnoses, fault-detection flags are defined. On the basis of this information, an integrated fault-diagnosis strategy is proposed.

Effect of thermal pressurization on dynamic rupture propagation under depth-dependent stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Y.; Kuge, K.; Kase, Y.

2009-12-01

Fluid and pore pressure evolution can affect dynamic propagation of earthquake ruptures owing to thermal pressurization (e.g., Mase and Smith, 1985). We investigate dynamic rupture propagation with thermal pressurization on a fault subjected to depth-dependent stress, on the basis of 3-D numerical simulations for spontaneous dynamic ruptures. We put a vertical strike-slip rectangular fault in a semi-infinite, homogenous, and elastic medium. The length and width of the fault are 8 and 3 km, respectively. We assume a depth-dependent stress estimated by Yamashita et al. (2004). The numerical algorithm is based on the finite-difference method by Kase and Kuge (2001). A rupture is initiated by increasing shear stress in a small patch at the bottom of the fault, and then proceeds spontaneously, governed by a slip-weakening law with the Coulomb failure criteria. Coefficients of friction and Dc are homogeneous on the fault. On a fault with thermal pressurization, we allow effective normal stress to vary with pore pressure change due to frictional heating by the formulation of Bizzarri and Cocco (2006). When thermal pressurization does not work, tractions drop in the same way everywhere and rupture velocity is subshear except near the free surface. Due to thermal pressurization, dynamic friction on the fault decreases and is heterogeneous not only vertically but horizontally, slip increases, and rupture velocity along the strike direction becomes supershear. As a result, plural peaks of final slip appear, as observed in the case of undrained dip-slip fault by Urata et al. (2008). We found in this study that the early stage of rupture growth under the depth-dependent stress is affected by the location of an initial crack. When a rupture is initiated at the center of the fault without thermal pressurization, the rupture cannot propagate and terminates. Thermal pressurization can help such a powerless rupture to keep propagating.

LIDAR Helps Identify Source of 1872 Earthquake Near Chelan, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherrod, B. L.; Blakely, R. J.; Weaver, C. S.

2015-12-01

One of the largest historic earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest occurred on 15 December 1872 (M6.5-7) near the south end of Lake Chelan in north-central Washington State. Lack of recognized surface deformation suggested that the earthquake occurred on a blind, perhaps deep, fault. New LiDAR data show landslides and a ~6 km long, NW-side-up scarp in Spencer Canyon, ~30 km south of Lake Chelan. Two landslides in Spencer Canyon impounded small ponds. An historical account indicated that dead trees were visible in one pond in AD1884. Wood from a snag in the pond yielded a calibrated age of AD1670-1940. Tree ring counts show that the oldest living trees on each landslide are 130 and 128 years old. The larger of the two landslides obliterated the scarp and thus, post-dates the last scarp-forming event. Two trenches across the scarp exposed a NW-dipping thrust fault. One trench exposed alluvial fan deposits, Mazama ash, and scarp colluvium cut by a single thrust fault. Three charcoal samples from a colluvium buried during the last fault displacement had calibrated ages between AD1680 and AD1940. The second trench exposed gneiss thrust over colluvium during at least two, and possibly three fault displacements. The younger of two charcoal samples collected from a colluvium below gneiss had a calibrated age of AD1665- AD1905. For an historical constraint, we assume that the lack of felt reports for large earthquakes in the period between 1872 and today indicates that no large earthquakes capable of rupturing the ground surface occurred in the region after the 1872 earthquake; thus the last displacement on the Spencer Canyon scarp cannot post-date the 1872 earthquake. Modeling of the age data suggests that the last displacement occurred between AD1840 and AD1890. These data, combined with the historical record, indicate that this fault is the source of the 1872 earthquake. Analyses of aeromagnetic data reveal lithologic contacts beneath the scarp that form an ENE-striking, curvilinear zone ~2.5 km wide and ~55 km long. This zone coincides with monoclines mapped in Mesozoic bedrock and Miocene flood basalts. This study ends uncertainty regarding the source of the 1872 earthquake and provides important information for seismic hazard analyses of major infrastructure projects in Washington and British Columbia.

Fault detection and fault tolerance in robotics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Visinsky, Monica; Walker, Ian D.; Cavallaro, Joseph R.

1992-01-01

Robots are used in inaccessible or hazardous environments in order to alleviate some of the time, cost and risk involved in preparing men to endure these conditions. In order to perform their expected tasks, the robots are often quite complex, thus increasing their potential for failures. If men must be sent into these environments to repair each component failure in the robot, the advantages of using the robot are quickly lost. Fault tolerant robots are needed which can effectively cope with failures and continue their tasks until repairs can be realistically scheduled. Before fault tolerant capabilities can be created, methods of detecting and pinpointing failures must be perfected. This paper develops a basic fault tree analysis of a robot in order to obtain a better understanding of where failures can occur and how they contribute to other failures in the robot. The resulting failure flow chart can also be used to analyze the resiliency of the robot in the presence of specific faults. By simulating robot failures and fault detection schemes, the problems involved in detecting failures for robots are explored in more depth.

Study on vibration characteristics and fault diagnosis method of oil-immersed flat wave reactor in Arctic area converter station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Wenqing; Wang, Yuandong; Li, Wenpeng; Sun, Guang; Qu, Guomin; Cui, Shigang; Li, Mengke; Wang, Yongqiang

2017-10-01

Based on long term vibration monitoring of the No.2 oil-immersed fat wave reactor in the ±500kV converter station in East Mongolia, the vibration signals in normal state and in core loose fault state were saved. Through the time-frequency analysis of the signals, the vibration characteristics of the core loose fault were obtained, and a fault diagnosis method based on the dual tree complex wavelet (DT-CWT) and support vector machine (SVM) was proposed. The vibration signals were analyzed by DT-CWT, and the energy entropy of the vibration signals were taken as the feature vector; the support vector machine was used to train and test the feature vector, and the accurate identification of the core loose fault of the flat wave reactor was realized. Through the identification of many groups of normal and core loose fault state vibration signals, the diagnostic accuracy of the result reached 97.36%. The effectiveness and accuracy of the method in the fault diagnosis of the flat wave reactor core is verified.

Fault diagnosis of helical gearbox using acoustic signal and wavelets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pranesh, SK; Abraham, Siju; Sugumaran, V.; Amarnath, M.

2017-05-01

The efficient transmission of power in machines is needed and gears are an appropriate choice. Faults in gears result in loss of energy and money. The monitoring and fault diagnosis are done by analysis of the acoustic and vibrational signals which are generally considered to be unwanted by products. This study proposes the usage of machine learning algorithm for condition monitoring of a helical gearbox by using the sound signals produced by the gearbox. Artificial faults were created and subsequently signals were captured by a microphone. An extensive study using different wavelet transformations for feature extraction from the acoustic signals was done, followed by waveletselection and feature selection using J48 decision tree and feature classification was performed using K star algorithm. Classification accuracy of 100% was obtained in the study

Triggered creep as a possible mechanism for delayed dynamic triggering of tremor and earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shelly, David R.; Peng, Zhigang; Hill, David P.; Aiken, Chastity

2011-01-01

The passage of radiating seismic waves generates transient stresses in the Earth's crust that can trigger slip on faults far away from the original earthquake source. The triggered fault slip is detectable in the form of earthquakes and seismic tremor. However, the significance of these triggered events remains controversial, in part because they often occur with some delay, long after the triggering stress has passed. Here we scrutinize the location and timing of tremor on the San Andreas fault between 2001 and 2010 in relation to distant earthquakes. We observe tremor on the San Andreas fault that is initiated by passing seismic waves, yet migrates along the fault at a much slower velocity than the radiating seismic waves. We suggest that the migrating tremor records triggered slow slip of the San Andreas fault as a propagating creep event. We find that the triggered tremor and fault creep can be initiated by distant earthquakes as small as magnitude 5.4 and can persist for several days after the seismic waves have passed. Our observations of prolonged tremor activity provide a clear example of the delayed dynamic triggering of seismic events. Fault creep has been shown to trigger earthquakes, and we therefore suggest that the dynamic triggering of prolonged fault creep could provide a mechanism for the delayed triggering of earthquakes. ?? 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Inferring patterns in mitochondrial DNA sequences through hypercube independent spanning trees.

PubMed

Silva, Eduardo Sant Ana da; Pedrini, Helio

2016-03-01

Given a graph G, a set of spanning trees rooted at a vertex r of G is said vertex/edge independent if, for each vertex v of G, v≠r, the paths of r to v in any pair of trees are vertex/edge disjoint. Independent spanning trees (ISTs) provide a number of advantages in data broadcasting due to their fault tolerant properties. For this reason, some studies have addressed the issue by providing mechanisms for constructing independent spanning trees efficiently. In this work, we investigate how to construct independent spanning trees on hypercubes, which are generated based upon spanning binomial trees, and how to use them to predict mitochondrial DNA sequence parts through paths on the hypercube. The prediction works both for inferring mitochondrial DNA sequences comprised of six bases as well as infer anomalies that probably should not belong to the mitochondrial DNA standard. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fault tree analysis of failure cause of crushing plant and mixing bed hall at Khoy cement factory in Iran☆

PubMed Central

Nouri.Gharahasanlou, Ali; Mokhtarei, Ashkan; Khodayarei, Aliasqar; Ataei, Mohammad

2014-01-01

Evaluating and analyzing the risk in the mining industry is a new approach for improving the machinery performance. Reliability, safety, and maintenance management based on the risk analysis can enhance the overall availability and utilization of the mining technological systems. This study investigates the failure occurrence probability of the crushing and mixing bed hall department at Azarabadegan Khoy cement plant by using fault tree analysis (FTA) method. The results of the analysis in 200 h operating interval show that the probability of failure occurrence for crushing, conveyor systems, crushing and mixing bed hall department is 73, 64, and 95 percent respectively and the conveyor belt subsystem found as the most probable system for failure. Finally, maintenance as a method of control and prevent the occurrence of failure is proposed. PMID:26779433

Towards generating ECSS-compliant fault tree analysis results via ConcertoFLA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallina, B.; Haider, Z.; Carlsson, A.

2018-05-01

Attitude Control Systems (ACSs) maintain the orientation of the satellite in three-dimensional space. ACSs need to be engineered in compliance with ECSS standards and need to ensure a certain degree of dependability. Thus, dependability analysis is conducted at various levels and by using ECSS-compliant techniques. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is one of these techniques. FTA is being automated within various Model Driven Engineering (MDE)-based methodologies. The tool-supported CHESS-methodology is one of them. This methodology incorporates ConcertoFLA, a dependability analysis technique enabling failure behavior analysis and thus FTA-results generation. ConcertoFLA, however, similarly to other techniques, still belongs to the academic research niche. To promote this technique within the space industry, we apply it on an ACS and discuss about its multi-faceted potentialities in the context of ECSS-compliant engineering.

Risk assessment for enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations: a fault tree analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Yajun; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.

2013-08-01

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementations are often characterised with large capital outlay, long implementation duration, and high risk of failure. In order to avoid ERP implementation failure and realise the benefits of the system, sound risk management is the key. This paper proposes a probabilistic risk assessment approach for ERP system implementation projects based on fault tree analysis, which models the relationship between ERP system components and specific risk factors. Unlike traditional risk management approaches that have been mostly focused on meeting project budget and schedule objectives, the proposed approach intends to address the risks that may cause ERP system usage failure. The approach can be used to identify the root causes of ERP system implementation usage failure and quantify the impact of critical component failures or critical risk events in the implementation process.

Accelerated Monte Carlo Simulation for Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thipphavong, David

2010-01-01

Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of any air traffic control system. An accelerated Monte Carlo approach was developed to assess the level of safety provided by a proposed next-generation air traffic control system. It combines features of fault tree and standard Monte Carlo methods. It runs more than one order of magnitude faster than the standard Monte Carlo method while providing risk estimates that only differ by about 10%. It also preserves component-level model fidelity that is difficult to maintain using the standard fault tree method. This balance of speed and fidelity allows sensitivity analysis to be completed in days instead of weeks or months with the standard Monte Carlo method. Results indicate that risk estimates are sensitive to transponder, pilot visual avoidance, and conflict detection failure probabilities.

Logic flowgraph methodology - A tool for modeling embedded systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muthukumar, C. T.; Guarro, S. B.; Apostolakis, G. E.

1991-01-01

The logic flowgraph methodology (LFM), a method for modeling hardware in terms of its process parameters, has been extended to form an analytical tool for the analysis of integrated (hardware/software) embedded systems. In the software part of a given embedded system model, timing and the control flow among different software components are modeled by augmenting LFM with modified Petrinet structures. The objective of the use of such an augmented LFM model is to uncover possible errors and the potential for unanticipated software/hardware interactions. This is done by backtracking through the augmented LFM mode according to established procedures which allow the semiautomated construction of fault trees for any chosen state of the embedded system (top event). These fault trees, in turn, produce the possible combinations of lower-level states (events) that may lead to the top event.

Fault tree analysis of failure cause of crushing plant and mixing bed hall at Khoy cement factory in Iran.

PubMed

Nouri Gharahasanlou, Ali; Mokhtarei, Ashkan; Khodayarei, Aliasqar; Ataei, Mohammad

2014-04-01

Evaluating and analyzing the risk in the mining industry is a new approach for improving the machinery performance. Reliability, safety, and maintenance management based on the risk analysis can enhance the overall availability and utilization of the mining technological systems. This study investigates the failure occurrence probability of the crushing and mixing bed hall department at Azarabadegan Khoy cement plant by using fault tree analysis (FTA) method. The results of the analysis in 200 h operating interval show that the probability of failure occurrence for crushing, conveyor systems, crushing and mixing bed hall department is 73, 64, and 95 percent respectively and the conveyor belt subsystem found as the most probable system for failure. Finally, maintenance as a method of control and prevent the occurrence of failure is proposed.

Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

2015-11-01

Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

Using certification trails to achieve software fault tolerance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, Gregory F.; Masson, Gerald M.

1993-01-01

A conceptually novel and powerful technique to achieve fault tolerance in hardware and software systems is introduced. When used for software fault tolerance, this new technique uses time and software redundancy and can be outlined as follows. In the initial phase, a program is run to solve a problem and store the result. In addition, this program leaves behind a trail of data called a certification trail. In the second phase, another program is run which solves the original problem again. This program, however, has access to the certification trail left by the first program. Because of the availability of the certification trail, the second phase can be performed by a less complex program and can execute more quickly. In the final phase, the two results are accepted as correct; otherwise an error is indicated. An essential aspect of this approach is that the second program must always generate either an error indication or a correct output even when the certification trail it receives from the first program is incorrect. The certification trail approach to fault tolerance was formalized and it was illustrated by applying it to the fundamental problem of finding a minimum spanning tree. Cases in which the second phase can be run concorrectly with the first and act as a monitor are discussed. The certification trail approach was compared to other approaches to fault tolerance. Because of space limitations we have omitted examples of our technique applied to the Huffman tree, and convex hull problems. These can be found in the full version of this paper.

Reliability analysis and initial requirements for FC systems and stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Åström, K.; Fontell, E.; Virtanen, S.

In the year 2000 Wärtsilä Corporation started an R&D program to develop SOFC systems for CHP applications. The program aims to bring to the market highly efficient, clean and cost competitive fuel cell systems with rated power output in the range of 50-250 kW for distributed generation and marine applications. In the program Wärtsilä focuses on system integration and development. System reliability and availability are key issues determining the competitiveness of the SOFC technology. In Wärtsilä, methods have been implemented for analysing the system in respect to reliability and safety as well as for defining reliability requirements for system components. A fault tree representation is used as the basis for reliability prediction analysis. A dynamic simulation technique has been developed to allow for non-static properties in the fault tree logic modelling. Special emphasis has been placed on reliability analysis of the fuel cell stacks in the system. A method for assessing reliability and critical failure predictability requirements for fuel cell stacks in a system consisting of several stacks has been developed. The method is based on a qualitative model of the stack configuration where each stack can be in a functional, partially failed or critically failed state, each of the states having different failure rates and effects on the system behaviour. The main purpose of the method is to understand the effect of stack reliability, critical failure predictability and operating strategy on the system reliability and availability. An example configuration, consisting of 5 × 5 stacks (series of 5 sets of 5 parallel stacks) is analysed in respect to stack reliability requirements as a function of predictability of critical failures and Weibull shape factor of failure rate distributions.

Slip triggered on southern California faults by the 1992 Joshua Tree, Landers, and big bear earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodin, Paul; Bilham, Roger; Behr, Jeff; Gomberg, Joan; Hudnut, Kenneth W.

1994-01-01

Five out of six functioning creepmeters on southern California faults recorded slip triggered at the time of some or all of the three largest events of the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence. Digital creep data indicate that dextral slip was triggered within 1 min of each mainshock and that maximum slip velocities occurred 2 to 3 min later. The duration of triggered slip events ranged from a few hours to several weeks. We note that triggered slip occurs commonly on faults that exhibit fault creep. To account for the observation that slip can be triggered repeatedly on a fault, we propose that the amplitude of triggered slip may be proportional to the depth of slip in the creep event and to the available near-surface tectonic strain that would otherwise eventually be released as fault creep. We advance the notion that seismic surface waves, perhaps amplified by sediments, generate transient local conditions that favor the release of tectonic strain to varying depths. Synthetic strain seismograms are presented that suggest increased pore pressure during periods of fault-normal contraction may be responsible for triggered slip, since maximum dextral shear strain transients correspond to times of maximum fault-normal contraction.

Fault-tolerant dynamic task graph scheduling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kurt, Mehmet C.; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram; Agrawal, Kunal

2014-11-16

In this paper, we present an approach to fault tolerant execution of dynamic task graphs scheduled using work stealing. In particular, we focus on selective and localized recovery of tasks in the presence of soft faults. We elicit from the user the basic task graph structure in terms of successor and predecessor relationships. The work stealing-based algorithm to schedule such a task graph is augmented to enable recovery when the data and meta-data associated with a task get corrupted. We use this redundancy, and the knowledge of the task graph structure, to selectively recover from faults with low space andmore » time overheads. We show that the fault tolerant design retains the essential properties of the underlying work stealing-based task scheduling algorithm, and that the fault tolerant execution is asymptotically optimal when task re-execution is taken into account. Experimental evaluation demonstrates the low cost of recovery under various fault scenarios.« less

Pore-pressure sensitivities to dynamic strains: observations in active tectonic regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbour, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

Triggered seismicity arising from dynamic stresses is often explained by the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion, where elevated pore pressures reduce the effective strength of faults in fluid-saturated rock. The seismic response of a fluid-rock system naturally depends on its hydro-mechanical properties, but accurately assessing how pore-fluid pressure responds to applied stress over large scales in situ remains a challenging task; hence, spatial variations in response are not well understood, especially around active faults. Here I analyze previously unutilized records of dynamic strain and pore-pressure from regional and teleseismic earthquakes at Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) stations from 2006 through 2012 to investigate variations in response along the Pacific/North American tectonic plate boundary. I find robust scaling-response coefficients between excess pore pressure and dynamic strain at each station that are spatially correlated: around the San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems, the response is lowest in regions of the crust undergoing the highest rates of secular shear strain. PBO stations in the Parkfield instrument cluster are at comparable distances to the San Andreas fault (SAF), and spatial variations there follow patterns in dextral creep rates along the fault, with the highest response in the actively creeping section, which is consistent with a narrowing zone of strain accumulation seen in geodetic velocity profiles. At stations in the San Juan Bautista (SJB) and Anza instrument clusters, the response depends non-linearly on the inverse fault-perpendicular distance, with the response decreasing towards the fault; the SJB cluster is at the northern transition from creeping-to-locked behavior along the SAF, where creep rates are at moderate to low levels, and the Anza cluster is around the San Jacinto fault, where to date there have been no statistically significant creep rates observed at the surface. These results suggest that the strength of the pore pressure response in fluid-saturated rock near active faults is controlled by shear strain accumulation associated with tectonic loading, which implies a strong feedback between fault strength and permeability: dynamic triggering susceptibilities may vary in space and also in time.

Planetary Gearbox Fault Diagnosis Using a Single Piezoelectric Strain Sensor

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-23

However, the fault detection of planetary gearbox is very complicate since the c omplex nature of dynamic rolling structure of p lanetary gearbox...vibration transfer paths due to the unique dynamic structure of rotating planet gears. Therefore, it is difficult to diagnose PGB faults via vibration...al. 2014). To overcome the above mentioned challenges in developing effective PGB fau lt diagnosis capability , a research investigation on

Multiple sensor fault diagnosis for dynamic processes.

PubMed

Li, Cheng-Chih; Jeng, Jyh-Cheng

2010-10-01

Modern industrial plants are usually large scaled and contain a great amount of sensors. Sensor fault diagnosis is crucial and necessary to process safety and optimal operation. This paper proposes a systematic approach to detect, isolate and identify multiple sensor faults for multivariate dynamic systems. The current work first defines deviation vectors for sensor observations, and further defines and derives the basic sensor fault matrix (BSFM), consisting of the normalized basic fault vectors, by several different methods. By projecting a process deviation vector to the space spanned by BSFM, this research uses a vector with the resulted weights on each direction for multiple sensor fault diagnosis. This study also proposes a novel monitoring index and derives corresponding sensor fault detectability. The study also utilizes that vector to isolate and identify multiple sensor faults, and discusses the isolatability and identifiability. Simulation examples and comparison with two conventional PCA-based contribution plots are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. Copyright © 2010 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Machine Learning of Fault Friction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, P. A.; Rouet-Leduc, B.; Hulbert, C.; Marone, C.; Guyer, R. A.

2017-12-01

We are applying machine learning (ML) techniques to continuous acoustic emission (AE) data from laboratory earthquake experiments. Our goal is to apply explicit ML methods to this acoustic datathe AE in order to infer frictional properties of a laboratory fault. The experiment is a double direct shear apparatus comprised of fault blocks surrounding fault gouge comprised of glass beads or quartz powder. Fault characteristics are recorded, including shear stress, applied load (bulk friction = shear stress/normal load) and shear velocity. The raw acoustic signal is continuously recorded. We rely on explicit decision tree approaches (Random Forest and Gradient Boosted Trees) that allow us to identify important features linked to the fault friction. A training procedure that employs both the AE and the recorded shear stress from the experiment is first conducted. Then, testing takes place on data the algorithm has never seen before, using only the continuous AE signal. We find that these methods provide rich information regarding frictional processes during slip (Rouet-Leduc et al., 2017a; Hulbert et al., 2017). In addition, similar machine learning approaches predict failure times, as well as slip magnitudes in some cases. We find that these methods work for both stick slip and slow slip experiments, for periodic slip and for aperiodic slip. We also derive a fundamental relationship between the AE and the friction describing the frictional behavior of any earthquake slip cycle in a given experiment (Rouet-Leduc et al., 2017b). Our goal is to ultimately scale these approaches to Earth geophysical data to probe fault friction. References Rouet-Leduc, B., C. Hulbert, N. Lubbers, K. Barros, C. Humphreys and P. A. Johnson, Machine learning predicts laboratory earthquakes, in review (2017). https://arxiv.org/abs/1702.05774Rouet-LeDuc, B. et al., Friction Laws Derived From the Acoustic Emissions of a Laboratory Fault by Machine Learning (2017), AGU Fall Meeting Session S025: Earthquake source: from the laboratory to the fieldHulbert, C., Characterizing slow slip applying machine learning (2017), AGU Fall Meeting Session S019: Slow slip, Tectonic Tremor, and the Brittle-to-Ductile Transition Zone: What mechanisms control the diversity of slow and fast earthquakes?

Generalized composite multiscale permutation entropy and Laplacian score based rolling bearing fault diagnosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Jinde; Pan, Haiyang; Yang, Shubao; Cheng, Junsheng

2018-01-01

Multiscale permutation entropy (MPE) is a recently proposed nonlinear dynamic method for measuring the randomness and detecting the nonlinear dynamic change of time series and can be used effectively to extract the nonlinear dynamic fault feature from vibration signals of rolling bearing. To solve the drawback of coarse graining process in MPE, an improved MPE method called generalized composite multiscale permutation entropy (GCMPE) was proposed in this paper. Also the influence of parameters on GCMPE and its comparison with the MPE are studied by analyzing simulation data. GCMPE was applied to the fault feature extraction from vibration signal of rolling bearing and then based on the GCMPE, Laplacian score for feature selection and the Particle swarm optimization based support vector machine, a new fault diagnosis method for rolling bearing was put forward in this paper. Finally, the proposed method was applied to analyze the experimental data of rolling bearing. The analysis results show that the proposed method can effectively realize the fault diagnosis of rolling bearing and has a higher fault recognition rate than the existing methods.

Failed oceanic transform models: experience of shaking the tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerya, Taras

2017-04-01

In geodynamics, numerical modeling is often used as a trial-and-error tool, which does not necessarily requires full understanding or even a correct concept for a modeled phenomenon. Paradoxically, in order to understand an enigmatic process one should simply try to model it based on some initial assumptions, which must not even be correct… The reason is that our intuition is not always well "calibrated" for understanding of geodynamic phenomena, which develop on space- and timescales that are very different from our everyday experience. We often have much better ideas about physical laws governing geodynamic processes than on how these laws should interact on geological space- and timescales. From this prospective, numerical models, in which these physical laws are self-consistently implemented, can gradually calibrate our intuition by exploring what scenarios are physically sensible and what are not. I personally went through this painful learning path many times and one noteworthy example was my 3D numerical modeling of oceanic transform faults. As I understand in retrospective, my initial literature-inspired concept of how and why transform faults form and evolve was thermomechanically inconsistent and based on two main assumptions (btw. both were incorrect!): (1) oceanic transforms are directly inherited from the continental rifting and breakup stages and (2) they represent plate fragmentation structures having peculiar extension-parallel orientation due to the stress rotation caused by thermal contraction of the oceanic lithosphere. During one year (!) of high-resolution thermomechanical numerical experiments exploring various physics (including very computationally demanding thermal contraction) I systematically observed how my initially prescribed extension-parallel weak transform faults connecting ridge segments rotated away from their original orientation and get converted into oblique ridge sections… This was really an epic failure! However, at the very same time, some pseudo-2D "side-models" with initial strait ridge and ad-hock strain weakened rheology, which were run for curiosity, suddenly showed spontaneous development of ridge curvature… Fraction of these models showed spontaneous development of orthogonal ridge-transform patterns by rotation of oblique ridge sections toward extension-parallel direction to accommodate asymmetric plate accretion. The later was controlled by detachment faults stabilized by strain weakening. Further exploration of these "side-models" resulted in complete changing of my concept for oceanic transforms: they are not plate fragmentation but rather plate growth structures stabilized by continuous plate accretion and rheological weakening of deforming rocks (Gerya, 2010, 2013). The conclusion is - keep shaking the tree and banana will fall… Gerya, T. (2010) Dynamical instability produces transform faults at mid-ocean ridges. Science, 329, 1047-1050. Gerya, T.V. (2013) Three-dimensional thermomechanical modeling of oceanic spreading initiation and evolution. Phys. Earth Planet. Interiors, 214, 35-52.

Fault feature analysis of cracked gear based on LOD and analytical-FE method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jiateng; Yang, Yu; Yang, Xingkai; Cheng, Junsheng

2018-01-01

At present, there are two main ideas for gear fault diagnosis. One is the model-based gear dynamic analysis; the other is signal-based gear vibration diagnosis. In this paper, a method for fault feature analysis of gear crack is presented, which combines the advantages of dynamic modeling and signal processing. Firstly, a new time-frequency analysis method called local oscillatory-characteristic decomposition (LOD) is proposed, which has the attractive feature of extracting fault characteristic efficiently and accurately. Secondly, an analytical-finite element (analytical-FE) method which is called assist-stress intensity factor (assist-SIF) gear contact model, is put forward to calculate the time-varying mesh stiffness (TVMS) under different crack states. Based on the dynamic model of the gear system with 6 degrees of freedom, the dynamic simulation response was obtained for different tooth crack depths. For the dynamic model, the corresponding relation between the characteristic parameters and the degree of the tooth crack is established under a specific condition. On the basis of the methods mentioned above, a novel gear tooth root crack diagnosis method which combines the LOD with the analytical-FE is proposed. Furthermore, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) are contrasted with the LOD by gear crack fault vibration signals. The analysis results indicate that the proposed method performs effectively and feasibility for the tooth crack stiffness calculation and the gear tooth crack fault diagnosis.

Integrated Fault Diagnosis Algorithm for Motor Sensors of In-Wheel Independent Drive Electric Vehicles

PubMed Central

Jeon, Namju; Lee, Hyeongcheol

2016-01-01

An integrated fault-diagnosis algorithm for a motor sensor of in-wheel independent drive electric vehicles is presented. This paper proposes a method that integrates the high- and low-level fault diagnoses to improve the robustness and performance of the system. For the high-level fault diagnosis of vehicle dynamics, a planar two-track non-linear model is first selected, and the longitudinal and lateral forces are calculated. To ensure redundancy of the system, correlation between the sensor and residual in the vehicle dynamics is analyzed to detect and separate the fault of the drive motor system of each wheel. To diagnose the motor system for low-level faults, the state equation of an interior permanent magnet synchronous motor is developed, and a parity equation is used to diagnose the fault of the electric current and position sensors. The validity of the high-level fault-diagnosis algorithm is verified using Carsim and Matlab/Simulink co-simulation. The low-level fault diagnosis is verified through Matlab/Simulink simulation and experiments. Finally, according to the residuals of the high- and low-level fault diagnoses, fault-detection flags are defined. On the basis of this information, an integrated fault-diagnosis strategy is proposed. PMID:27973431

Benchmarking Defmod, an open source FEM code for modeling episodic fault rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Chunfang

2017-03-01

We present Defmod, an open source (linear) finite element code that enables us to efficiently model the crustal deformation due to (quasi-)static and dynamic loadings, poroelastic flow, viscoelastic flow and frictional fault slip. Ali (2015) provides the original code introducing an implicit solver for (quasi-)static problem, and an explicit solver for dynamic problem. The fault constraint is implemented via Lagrange Multiplier. Meng (2015) combines these two solvers into a hybrid solver that uses failure criteria and friction laws to adaptively switch between the (quasi-)static state and dynamic state. The code is capable of modeling episodic fault rupture driven by quasi-static loadings, e.g. due to reservoir fluid withdraw or injection. Here, we focus on benchmarking the Defmod results against some establish results.

Variability of Slip Behavior in Simulations of Dynamic Rupture Interaction With Stronger Fault Patches Over Long-Term Deformation Histories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapusta, N.; Liu, Y.

2007-12-01

Heterogeneity in fault properties can have significant effect on dynamic rupture propagation and aseismic slip. It is often assumed that a fixed heterogeneity would have similar effect on fault slip throughout the slip history. We investigate dynamic rupture interaction with a fault patch of higher normal stress over several earthquake cycles in a three-dimensional model. We find that the influence of the heterogeneity on dynamic events has significant variation and depends on prior slip history. We consider a planar strike-slip fault governed by rate and state friction and driven by slow tectonic loading on deeper extension of the fault. The 30 km by 12 km velocity-weakening region, which is potentially seismogenic, is surrounded by steady-state velocity-strengthening region. The normal stress is constant over the fault, except in a circular patch of 2 km in diameter located in the seismogenic region, where normal stress is higher than on the rest of the fault. Our simulations employ the methodology developed by Lapusta and Liu (AGU, 2006), which is able to resolve both dynamic and quasi-static stages of spontaneous slip accumulation in a single computational procedure. The initial shear stress is constant on the fault, except in a small area where it is higher and where the first large dynamic event initiates. For patches with 20%, 40%, 60% higher normal stress, the first event has significant dynamic interaction with the patch, creating a rupture speed decrease followed by a supershear burst and larger slip around the patch. Hence, in the first event, the patch acts as a seismic asperity. For the case of 100% higher stress, the rupture is not able to break the patch in the first event. In subsequent dynamic events, the behavior depends on the strength of heterogeneity. For the patch with 20% higher normal stress, dynamic rupture in subsequent events propagates through the patch without any noticeable perturbation in rupture speed or slip. In particular, supershear propagation and additional slip accumulation around the patch are never repeated in the simulated history of the fault, and the patch stops manifesting itself as a seismic asperity. This is due to higher shear stress that is established at the patch after the first earthquake cycle. For patches with higher normal stress, shear stress redistribution also occurs, but it is less effective. The patches with 40% and 60% higher normal stress continue to affect rupture speed and fault slip in some of subsequent events, although the effect is much diminished with respect to the first event. For example, there are no supershear bursts. The patch with 100% higher normal stress is first broken in the second large event, and it retains significant influence on rupture speed and slip throughout the fault history, occasionally resulting in supershear bursts. Additional slip complexity emerges for patches with 40% and higher normal stress contrast. Since higher normal stress corresponds to a smaller nucleation size, nucleation of some events moves from the rheological transitions (where nucleation occurs in the cases with no stronger patch and with the patch of 20% higher normal stress) to the patches of higher normal stress. The patches nucleate both large, model-spanning, events, and small events that arrest soon after exiting the patch. Hence not every event that originates at the location of a potential seismic asperity is destined to be large, as its subsequent propagation is significantly influenced by the state of stress outside the patch.

Quantum Error Correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lidar, Daniel A.; Brun, Todd A.

2013-09-01

Prologue; Preface; Part I. Background: 1. Introduction to decoherence and noise in open quantum systems Daniel Lidar and Todd Brun; 2. Introduction to quantum error correction Dave Bacon; 3. Introduction to decoherence-free subspaces and noiseless subsystems Daniel Lidar; 4. Introduction to quantum dynamical decoupling Lorenza Viola; 5. Introduction to quantum fault tolerance Panos Aliferis; Part II. Generalized Approaches to Quantum Error Correction: 6. Operator quantum error correction David Kribs and David Poulin; 7. Entanglement-assisted quantum error-correcting codes Todd Brun and Min-Hsiu Hsieh; 8. Continuous-time quantum error correction Ognyan Oreshkov; Part III. Advanced Quantum Codes: 9. Quantum convolutional codes Mark Wilde; 10. Non-additive quantum codes Markus Grassl and Martin Rötteler; 11. Iterative quantum coding systems David Poulin; 12. Algebraic quantum coding theory Andreas Klappenecker; 13. Optimization-based quantum error correction Andrew Fletcher; Part IV. Advanced Dynamical Decoupling: 14. High order dynamical decoupling Zhen-Yu Wang and Ren-Bao Liu; 15. Combinatorial approaches to dynamical decoupling Martin Rötteler and Pawel Wocjan; Part V. Alternative Quantum Computation Approaches: 16. Holonomic quantum computation Paolo Zanardi; 17. Fault tolerance for holonomic quantum computation Ognyan Oreshkov, Todd Brun and Daniel Lidar; 18. Fault tolerant measurement-based quantum computing Debbie Leung; Part VI. Topological Methods: 19. Topological codes Héctor Bombín; 20. Fault tolerant topological cluster state quantum computing Austin Fowler and Kovid Goyal; Part VII. Applications and Implementations: 21. Experimental quantum error correction Dave Bacon; 22. Experimental dynamical decoupling Lorenza Viola; 23. Architectures Jacob Taylor; 24. Error correction in quantum communication Mark Wilde; Part VIII. Critical Evaluation of Fault Tolerance: 25. Hamiltonian methods in QEC and fault tolerance Eduardo Novais, Eduardo Mucciolo and Harold Baranger; 26. Critique of fault-tolerant quantum information processing Robert Alicki; References; Index.

Triggering of the Ms = 5.4 Little Skull Mountain, Nevada, earthquake with dynamic strains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, Joan; Bodin, Paul

1994-01-01

We have developed an approach to test the viability of dynamic strains as a triggering mechanism by quantifying the dynamic strain tensor at seismogenic depths. We focus on the dynamic strains at the hypocenter of the Ms = 5.4 Little Skull Mountain (LSM), Nevada, earthquake. This event is noteworthy because it is the largest earthquake demonstrably triggered at remote distances (∼280 km) by the Ms = 7.4 Landers, California, earthquake and because of its ambiguous association with magmatic activity. Our analysis shows that, if dynamic strains initiate remote triggering, the orientation and modes of faulting most favorable for being triggered by a given strain transient change with depth. The geometry of the most probable LSM fault plane was favorably oriented with respect to the geometry of the dynamic strain tensor. We estimate that the magnitude of the peak dynamic strains at the hypocentral depth of the LSM earthquake were ∼4 μstrain (∼.2 MPa) which are ∼50% smaller than those estimated from velocity seismograms recorded at the surface. We suggest that these strains are too small to cause Mohr-Coulomb style failure unless the fault was prestrained to near failure levels, the fault was exceptionally weak, and/or the dynamic strains trigger other processes that lead to failure.

On the role of fluids in stick-slip dynamics of saturated granular fault gouge using a coupled computational fluid dynamics-discrete element approach: STICK-SLIP IN SATURATED FAULT GOUGE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dorostkar, Omid; Guyer, Robert A.; Johnson, Paul A.

The presence of fault gouge has considerable influence on slip properties of tectonic faults and the physics of earthquake rupture. The presence of fluids within faults also plays a significant role in faulting and earthquake processes. In this study, we present 3-D discrete element simulations of dry and fluid-saturated granular fault gouge and analyze the effect of fluids on stick-slip behavior. Fluid flow is modeled using computational fluid dynamics based on the Navier-Stokes equations for an incompressible fluid and modified to take into account the presence of particles. Analysis of a long time train of slip events shows that themore » (1) drop in shear stress, (2) compaction of granular layer, and (3) the kinetic energy release during slip all increase in magnitude in the presence of an incompressible fluid, compared to dry conditions. We also observe that on average, the recurrence interval between slip events is longer for fluid-saturated granular fault gouge compared to the dry case. This observation is consistent with the occurrence of larger events in the presence of fluid. It is found that the increase in kinetic energy during slip events for saturated conditions can be attributed to the increased fluid flow during slip. Finally, our observations emphasize the important role that fluid flow and fluid-particle interactions play in tectonic fault zones and show in particular how discrete element method (DEM) models can help understand the hydromechanical processes that dictate fault slip.« less

On the role of fluids in stick-slip dynamics of saturated granular fault gouge using a coupled computational fluid dynamics-discrete element approach: STICK-SLIP IN SATURATED FAULT GOUGE

DOE PAGES

Dorostkar, Omid; Guyer, Robert A.; Johnson, Paul A.; ...

2017-05-01

The presence of fault gouge has considerable influence on slip properties of tectonic faults and the physics of earthquake rupture. The presence of fluids within faults also plays a significant role in faulting and earthquake processes. In this study, we present 3-D discrete element simulations of dry and fluid-saturated granular fault gouge and analyze the effect of fluids on stick-slip behavior. Fluid flow is modeled using computational fluid dynamics based on the Navier-Stokes equations for an incompressible fluid and modified to take into account the presence of particles. Analysis of a long time train of slip events shows that themore » (1) drop in shear stress, (2) compaction of granular layer, and (3) the kinetic energy release during slip all increase in magnitude in the presence of an incompressible fluid, compared to dry conditions. We also observe that on average, the recurrence interval between slip events is longer for fluid-saturated granular fault gouge compared to the dry case. This observation is consistent with the occurrence of larger events in the presence of fluid. It is found that the increase in kinetic energy during slip events for saturated conditions can be attributed to the increased fluid flow during slip. Finally, our observations emphasize the important role that fluid flow and fluid-particle interactions play in tectonic fault zones and show in particular how discrete element method (DEM) models can help understand the hydromechanical processes that dictate fault slip.« less

Fault tolerant control of multivariable processes using auto-tuning PID controller.

PubMed

Yu, Ding-Li; Chang, T K; Yu, Ding-Wen

2005-02-01

Fault tolerant control of dynamic processes is investigated in this paper using an auto-tuning PID controller. A fault tolerant control scheme is proposed composing an auto-tuning PID controller based on an adaptive neural network model. The model is trained online using the extended Kalman filter (EKF) algorithm to learn system post-fault dynamics. Based on this model, the PID controller adjusts its parameters to compensate the effects of the faults, so that the control performance is recovered from degradation. The auto-tuning algorithm for the PID controller is derived with the Lyapunov method and therefore, the model predicted tracking error is guaranteed to converge asymptotically. The method is applied to a simulated two-input two-output continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) with various faults, which demonstrate the applicability of the developed scheme to industrial processes.

On the role of fluids in stick-slip dynamics of saturated granular fault gouge using a coupled computational fluid dynamics-discrete element approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorostkar, Omid; Guyer, Robert A.; Johnson, Paul A.; Marone, Chris; Carmeliet, Jan

2017-05-01

The presence of fault gouge has considerable influence on slip properties of tectonic faults and the physics of earthquake rupture. The presence of fluids within faults also plays a significant role in faulting and earthquake processes. In this paper, we present 3-D discrete element simulations of dry and fluid-saturated granular fault gouge and analyze the effect of fluids on stick-slip behavior. Fluid flow is modeled using computational fluid dynamics based on the Navier-Stokes equations for an incompressible fluid and modified to take into account the presence of particles. Analysis of a long time train of slip events shows that the (1) drop in shear stress, (2) compaction of granular layer, and (3) the kinetic energy release during slip all increase in magnitude in the presence of an incompressible fluid, compared to dry conditions. We also observe that on average, the recurrence interval between slip events is longer for fluid-saturated granular fault gouge compared to the dry case. This observation is consistent with the occurrence of larger events in the presence of fluid. It is found that the increase in kinetic energy during slip events for saturated conditions can be attributed to the increased fluid flow during slip. Our observations emphasize the important role that fluid flow and fluid-particle interactions play in tectonic fault zones and show in particular how discrete element method (DEM) models can help understand the hydromechanical processes that dictate fault slip.

Fix-Forward: A Comparison of the Army’s Requirements and Capabilities for Forward Support Maintenance,

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-04-01

tolerances or spaci - able assets diagnostic/fault ness float fications isolation devices Operation of cannibalL- zation point Why Sustain materiel...with diagnostic software based on "fault tree " representation of the M65 ThS) to bridge the gap in diagnostics capability was demonstrated in 1980 and... identification friend or foe) which has much lower reliability than TSQ-73 peculiar hardware). Thus, as in other examples, reported readiness does not reflect

AADL Fault Modeling and Analysis Within an ARP4761 Safety Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

Analysis Generator 27 3.2.3 Mapping to OpenFTA Format File 27 3.2.4 Mapping to Generic XML Format 28 3.2.5 AADL and FTA Mapping Rules 28 3.2.6 Issues...PSSA), System Safety Assessment (SSA), Common Cause Analysis (CCA), Fault Tree Analysis ( FTA ), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Failure...Modes and Effects Summary, Mar - kov Analysis (MA), and Dependence Diagrams (DDs), also referred to as Reliability Block Dia- grams (RBDs). The

3D Dynamic Rupture Simulations along Dipping Faults, with a focus on the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Withers, K.; Moschetti, M. P.

2017-12-01

We study dynamic rupture and ground motion from dip-slip faults in regions that have high-seismic hazard, such as the Wasatch fault zone, Utah. Previous numerical simulations have modeled deterministic ground motion along segments of this fault in the heavily populated regions near Salt Lake City but were restricted to low frequencies ( 1 Hz). We seek to better understand the rupture process and assess broadband ground motions and variability from the Wasatch Fault Zone by extending deterministic ground motion prediction to higher frequencies (up to 5 Hz). We perform simulations along a dipping normal fault (40 x 20 km along strike and width, respectively) with characteristics derived from geologic observations to generate a suite of ruptures > Mw 6.5. This approach utilizes dynamic simulations (fully physics-based models, where the initial stress drop and friction law are imposed) using a summation by parts (SBP) method. The simulations include rough-fault topography following a self-similar fractal distribution (over length scales from 100 m to the size of the fault) in addition to off-fault plasticity. Energy losses from heat and other mechanisms, modeled as anelastic attenuation, are also included, as well as free-surface topography, which can significantly affect ground motion patterns. We compare the effect of material structure and both rate and state and slip-weakening friction laws have on rupture propagation. The simulations show reduced slip and moment release in the near surface with the inclusion of plasticity, better agreeing with observations of shallow slip deficit. Long-wavelength fault geometry imparts a non-uniform stress distribution along both dip and strike, influencing the preferred rupture direction and hypocenter location, potentially important for seismic hazard estimation.

A Dynamic Finite Element Method for Simulating the Physics of Faults Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saez, E.; Mora, P.; Gross, L.; Weatherley, D.

2004-12-01

We introduce a dynamic Finite Element method using a novel high level scripting language to describe the physical equations, boundary conditions and time integration scheme. The library we use is the parallel Finley library: a finite element kernel library, designed for solving large-scale problems. It is incorporated as a differential equation solver into a more general library called escript, based on the scripting language Python. This library has been developed to facilitate the rapid development of 3D parallel codes, and is optimised for the Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator Major National Research Facility (ACcESS MNRF) supercomputer, a 208 processor SGI Altix with a peak performance of 1.1 TFlops. Using the scripting approach we obtain a parallel FE code able to take advantage of the computational efficiency of the Altix 3700. We consider faults as material discontinuities (the displacement, velocity, and acceleration fields are discontinuous at the fault), with elastic behavior. The stress continuity at the fault is achieved naturally through the expression of the fault interactions in the weak formulation. The elasticity problem is solved explicitly in time, using the Saint Verlat scheme. Finally, we specify a suitable frictional constitutive relation and numerical scheme to simulate fault behaviour. Our model is based on previous work on modelling fault friction and multi-fault systems using lattice solid-like models. We adapt the 2D model for simulating the dynamics of parallel fault systems described to the Finite-Element method. The approach uses a frictional relation along faults that is slip and slip-rate dependent, and the numerical integration approach introduced by Mora and Place in the lattice solid model. In order to illustrate the new Finite Element model, single and multi-fault simulation examples are presented.

Unsupervised Learning —A Novel Clustering Method for Rolling Bearing Faults Identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kai, Li; Bo, Luo; Tao, Ma; Xuefeng, Yang; Guangming, Wang

2017-12-01

To promptly process the massive fault data and automatically provide accurate diagnosis results, numerous studies have been conducted on intelligent fault diagnosis of rolling bearing. Among these studies, such as artificial neural networks, support vector machines, decision trees and other supervised learning methods are used commonly. These methods can detect the failure of rolling bearing effectively, but to achieve better detection results, it often requires a lot of training samples. Based on above, a novel clustering method is proposed in this paper. This novel method is able to find the correct number of clusters automatically the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated using datasets from rolling element bearings. The diagnosis results show that the proposed method can accurately detect the fault types of small samples. Meanwhile, the diagnosis results are also relative high accuracy even for massive samples.

Fault Analysis on Bevel Gear Teeth Surface Damage of Aeroengine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Li; Chen, Lishun; Li, Silu; Liang, Tao

2017-12-01

Aiming at the trouble phenomenon for bevel gear teeth surface damage of Aero-engine, Fault Tree of bevel gear teeth surface damage was drawing by logical relations, the possible cause of trouble was analyzed, scanning electron-microscope, energy spectrum analysis, Metallographic examination, hardness measurement and other analysis means were adopted to investigate the spall gear tooth. The results showed that Material composition, Metallographic structure, Micro-hardness, Carburization depth of the fault bevel gear accord with technical requirements. Contact fatigue spall defect caused bevel gear teeth surface damage. The small magnitude of Interference of accessory gearbox install hole and driving bevel gear bearing seat was mainly caused. Improved measures were proposed, after proof, Thermoelement measures are effective.

Reliability modelling and analysis of a multi-state element based on a dynamic Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhiqiang; Xu, Tingxue; Gu, Junyuan; Dong, Qi; Fu, Linyu

2018-04-01

This paper presents a quantitative reliability modelling and analysis method for multi-state elements based on a combination of the Markov process and a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), taking perfect repair, imperfect repair and condition-based maintenance (CBM) into consideration. The Markov models of elements without repair and under CBM are established, and an absorbing set is introduced to determine the reliability of the repairable element. According to the state-transition relations between the states determined by the Markov process, a DBN model is built. In addition, its parameters for series and parallel systems, namely, conditional probability tables, can be calculated by referring to the conditional degradation probabilities. Finally, the power of a control unit in a failure model is used as an example. A dynamic fault tree (DFT) is translated into a Bayesian network model, and subsequently extended to a DBN. The results show the state probabilities of an element and the system without repair, with perfect and imperfect repair, and under CBM, with an absorbing set plotted by differential equations and verified. Through referring forward, the reliability value of the control unit is determined in different kinds of modes. Finally, weak nodes are noted in the control unit.

The 1911 M ~6.6 Calaveras earthquake: Source parameters and the role of static, viscoelastic, and dynamic coulomb stress changes imparted by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doser, D.I.; Olsen, K.B.; Pollitz, F.F.; Stein, R.S.; Toda, S.

2009-01-01

The occurrence of a right-lateral strike-slip earthquake in 1911 is inconsistent with the calculated 0.2-2.5 bar static stress decrease imparted by the 1906 rupture at that location on the Calaveras fault, and 5 yr of calculated post-1906 viscoelastic rebound does little to reload the fault. We have used all available first-motion, body-wave, and surface-wave data to explore possible focal mechanisms for the 1911 earthquake. We find that the event was most likely a right-lateral strikeslip event on the Calaveras fault, larger than, but otherwise resembling, the 1984 Mw 6.1 Morgan Hill earthquake in roughly the same location. Unfortunately, we could recover no unambiguous surface fault offset or geodetic strain data to corroborate the seismic analysis despite an exhaustive archival search. We calculated the static and dynamic Coulomb stress changes for three 1906 source models to understand stress transfer to the 1911 site. In contrast to the static stress shadow, the peak dynamic Coulomb stress imparted by the 1906 rupture promoted failure at the site of the 1911 earthquake by 1.4-5.8 bar. Perhaps because the sample is small and the aftershocks are poorly located, we find no correlation of 1906 aftershock frequency or magnitude with the peak dynamic stress, although all aftershocks sustained a calculated dynamic stress of ???3 bar. Just 20 km to the south of the 1911 epicenter, we find that surface creep of the Calaveras fault at Hollister paused for ~17 yr after 1906, about the expected delay for the calculated static stress drop imparted by the 1906 earthquake when San Andreas fault postseismic creep and viscoelastic relaxation are included. Thus, the 1911 earthquake may have been promoted by the transient dynamic stresses, while Calaveras fault creep 20 km to the south appears to have been inhibited by the static stress changes.

Dynamic rupture simulations on complex fault zone structures with off-fault plasticity using the ADER-DG method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wollherr, Stephanie; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Igel, Heiner

2015-04-01

In dynamic rupture models, high stress concentrations at rupture fronts have to to be accommodated by off-fault inelastic processes such as plastic deformation. As presented in (Roten et al., 2014), incorporating plastic yielding can significantly reduce earlier predictions of ground motions in the Los Angeles Basin. Further, an inelastic response of materials surrounding a fault potentially has a strong impact on surface displacement and is therefore a key aspect in understanding the triggering of tsunamis through floor uplifting. We present an implementation of off-fault-plasticity and its verification for the software package SeisSol, an arbitrary high-order derivative discontinuous Galerkin (ADER-DG) method. The software recently reached multi-petaflop/s performance on some of the largest supercomputers worldwide and was a Gordon Bell prize finalist application in 2014 (Heinecke et al., 2014). For the nonelastic calculations we impose a Drucker-Prager yield criterion in shear stress with a viscous regularization following (Andrews, 2005). It permits the smooth relaxation of high stress concentrations induced in the dynamic rupture process. We verify the implementation by comparison to the SCEC/USGS Spontaneous Rupture Code Verification Benchmarks. The results of test problem TPV13 with a 60-degree dipping normal fault show that SeisSol is in good accordance with other codes. Additionally we aim to explore the numerical characteristics of the off-fault plasticity implementation by performing convergence tests for the 2D code. The ADER-DG method is especially suited for complex geometries by using unstructured tetrahedral meshes. Local adaptation of the mesh resolution enables a fine sampling of the cohesive zone on the fault while simultaneously satisfying the dispersion requirements of wave propagation away from the fault. In this context we will investigate the influence of off-fault-plasticity on geometrically complex fault zone structures like subduction zones or branched faults. Studying the interplay of stress conditions and angle dependence of neighbouring branches including inelastic material behaviour and its effects on rupture jumps and seismic activation helps to advance our understanding of earthquake source processes. An application is the simulation of a real large-scale subduction zone scenario including plasticity to validate the coupling of our dynamic rupture calculations to a tsunami model in the framework of the ASCETE project (http://www.ascete.de/). Andrews, D. J. (2005): Rupture dynamics with energy loss outside the slip zone, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B01307. Heinecke, A. (2014), A. Breuer, S. Rettenberger, M. Bader, A.-A. Gabriel, C. Pelties, A. Bode, W. Barth, K. Vaidyanathan, M. Smelyanskiy and P. Dubey: Petascale High Order Dynamic Rupture Earthquake Simulations on Heterogeneous Supercomputers. In Supercomputing 2014, The International Conference for High Performance Computing, Networking, Storage and Analysis. IEEE, New Orleans, LA, USA, November 2014. Roten, D. (2014), K. B. Olsen, S.M. Day, Y. Cui, and D. Fäh: Expected seismic shaking in Los Angeles reduced by San Andreas fault zone plasticity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2769-2777.

Multi-Fault Rupture Scenarios in the Brawley Seismic Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyriakopoulos, C.; Oglesby, D. D.; Rockwell, T. K.; Meltzner, A. J.; Barall, M.

2017-12-01

Dynamic rupture complexity is strongly affected by both the geometric configuration of a network of faults and pre-stress conditions. Between those two, the geometric configuration is more likely to be anticipated prior to an event. An important factor in the unpredictability of the final rupture pattern of a group of faults is the time-dependent interaction between them. Dynamic rupture models provide a means to investigate this otherwise inscrutable processes. The Brawley Seismic Zone in Southern California is an area in which this approach might be important for inferring potential earthquake sizes and rupture patterns. Dynamic modeling can illuminate how the main faults in this area, the Southern San Andreas (SSAF) and Imperial faults, might interact with the intersecting cross faults, and how the cross faults may modulate rupture on the main faults. We perform 3D finite element modeling of potential earthquakes in this zone assuming an extended array of faults (Figure). Our results include a wide range of ruptures and fault behaviors depending on assumptions about nucleation location, geometric setup, pre-stress conditions, and locking depth. For example, in the majority of our models the cross faults do not strongly participate in the rupture process, giving the impression that they are not typically an aid or an obstacle to the rupture propagation. However, in some cases, particularly when rupture proceeds slowly on the main faults, the cross faults indeed can participate with significant slip, and can even cause rupture termination on one of the main faults. Furthermore, in a complex network of faults we should not preclude the possibility of a large event nucleating on a smaller fault (e.g. a cross fault) and eventually promoting rupture on the main structure. Recent examples include the 2010 Mw 7.1 Darfield (New Zealand) and Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah (Mexico) earthquakes, where rupture started on a smaller adjacent segment and later cascaded into a larger event. For that reason, we are investigating scenarios of a moderate rupture on a cross fault, and determining conditions under which the rupture will propagate onto the adjacent SSAF. Our investigation will provide fundamental insights that may help us interpret faulting behaviors in other areas, such as the complex Mw 7.8 2016 Kaikoura (New Zealand) earthquake.

Goal-Function Tree Modeling for Systems Engineering and Fault Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Stephen B.; Breckenridge, Jonathan T.

2013-01-01

This paper describes a new representation that enables rigorous definition and decomposition of both nominal and off-nominal system goals and functions: the Goal-Function Tree (GFT). GFTs extend the concept and process of functional decomposition, utilizing state variables as a key mechanism to ensure physical and logical consistency and completeness of the decomposition of goals (requirements) and functions, and enabling full and complete traceabilitiy to the design. The GFT also provides for means to define and represent off-nominal goals and functions that are activated when the system's nominal goals are not met. The physical accuracy of the GFT, and its ability to represent both nominal and off-nominal goals enable the GFT to be used for various analyses of the system, including assessments of the completeness and traceability of system goals and functions, the coverage of fault management failure detections, and definition of system failure scenarios.

Risk management of PPP project in the preparation stage based on Fault Tree Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Yuanzhi; Guan, Qiuling

2017-03-01

The risk management of PPP(Public Private Partnership) project can improve the level of risk control between government departments and private investors, so as to make more beneficial decisions, reduce investment losses and achieve mutual benefit as well. Therefore, this paper takes the PPP project preparation stage venture as the research object to identify and confirm four types of risks. At the same time, fault tree analysis(FTA) is used to evaluate the risk factors that belong to different parts, and quantify the influencing degree of risk impact on the basis of risk identification. In addition, it determines the importance order of risk factors by calculating unit structure importance on PPP project preparation stage. The result shows that accuracy of government decision-making, rationality of private investors funds allocation and instability of market returns are the main factors to generate the shared risk on the project.

Rocket engine system reliability analyses using probabilistic and fuzzy logic techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardy, Terry L.; Rapp, Douglas C.

1994-01-01

The reliability of rocket engine systems was analyzed by using probabilistic and fuzzy logic techniques. Fault trees were developed for integrated modular engine (IME) and discrete engine systems, and then were used with the two techniques to quantify reliability. The IRRAS (Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System) computer code, developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, was used for the probabilistic analyses, and FUZZYFTA (Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis), a code developed at NASA Lewis Research Center, was used for the fuzzy logic analyses. Although both techniques provided estimates of the reliability of the IME and discrete systems, probabilistic techniques emphasized uncertainty resulting from randomness in the system whereas fuzzy logic techniques emphasized uncertainty resulting from vagueness in the system. Because uncertainty can have both random and vague components, both techniques were found to be useful tools in the analysis of rocket engine system reliability.

Enterprise architecture availability analysis using fault trees and stakeholder interviews

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Närman, Per; Franke, Ulrik; König, Johan; Buschle, Markus; Ekstedt, Mathias

2014-01-01

The availability of enterprise information systems is a key concern for many organisations. This article describes a method for availability analysis based on Fault Tree Analysis and constructs from the ArchiMate enterprise architecture (EA) language. To test the quality of the method, several case-studies within the banking and electrical utility industries were performed. Input data were collected through stakeholder interviews. The results from the case studies were compared with availability of log data to determine the accuracy of the method's predictions. In the five cases where accurate log data were available, the yearly downtime estimates were within eight hours from the actual downtimes. The cost of performing the analysis was low; no case study required more than 20 man-hours of work, making the method ideal for practitioners with an interest in obtaining rapid availability estimates of their enterprise information systems.

SCAP: a new methodology for safety management based on feedback from credible accident-probabilistic fault tree analysis system.

PubMed

Khan, F I; Iqbal, A; Ramesh, N; Abbasi, S A

2001-10-12

As it is conventionally done, strategies for incorporating accident--prevention measures in any hazardous chemical process industry are developed on the basis of input from risk assessment. However, the two steps-- risk assessment and hazard reduction (or safety) measures--are not linked interactively in the existing methodologies. This prevents a quantitative assessment of the impacts of safety measures on risk control. We have made an attempt to develop a methodology in which risk assessment steps are interactively linked with implementation of safety measures. The resultant system tells us the extent of reduction of risk by each successive safety measure. It also tells based on sophisticated maximum credible accident analysis (MCAA) and probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) whether a given unit can ever be made 'safe'. The application of the methodology has been illustrated with a case study.

Uncertainty analysis in fault tree models with dependent basic events.

PubMed

Pedroni, Nicola; Zio, Enrico

2013-06-01

In general, two types of dependence need to be considered when estimating the probability of the top event (TE) of a fault tree (FT): "objective" dependence between the (random) occurrences of different basic events (BEs) in the FT and "state-of-knowledge" (epistemic) dependence between estimates of the epistemically uncertain probabilities of some BEs of the FT model. In this article, we study the effects on the TE probability of objective and epistemic dependences. The well-known Frèchet bounds and the distribution envelope determination (DEnv) method are used to model all kinds of (possibly unknown) objective and epistemic dependences, respectively. For exemplification, the analyses are carried out on a FT with six BEs. Results show that both types of dependence significantly affect the TE probability; however, the effects of epistemic dependence are likely to be overwhelmed by those of objective dependence (if present). © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

A fault tree model to assess probability of contaminant discharge from shipwrecks.

PubMed

Landquist, H; Rosén, L; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M; Lindgren, J F; Dahllöf, I

2014-11-15

Shipwrecks on the sea floor around the world may contain hazardous substances that can cause harm to the marine environment. Today there are no comprehensive methods for environmental risk assessment of shipwrecks, and thus there is poor support for decision-making on prioritization of mitigation measures. The purpose of this study was to develop a tool for quantitative risk estimation of potentially polluting shipwrecks, and in particular an estimation of the annual probability of hazardous substance discharge. The assessment of the probability of discharge is performed using fault tree analysis, facilitating quantification of the probability with respect to a set of identified hazardous events. This approach enables a structured assessment providing transparent uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The model facilitates quantification of risk, quantification of the uncertainties in the risk calculation and identification of parameters to be investigated further in order to obtain a more reliable risk calculation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Qualitative Importance Measures of Systems Components - A New Approach and Its Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chybowski, Leszek; Gawdzińska, Katarzyna; Wiśnicki, Bogusz

2016-12-01

The paper presents an improved methodology of analysing the qualitative importance of components in the functional and reliability structures of the system. We present basic importance measures, i.e. the Birnbaum's structural measure, the order of the smallest minimal cut-set, the repetition count of an i-th event in the Fault Tree and the streams measure. A subsystem of circulation pumps and fuel heaters in the main engine fuel supply system of a container vessel illustrates the qualitative importance analysis. We constructed a functional model and a Fault Tree which we analysed using qualitative measures. Additionally, we compared the calculated measures and introduced corrected measures as a tool for improving the analysis. We proposed scaled measures and a common measure taking into account the location of the component in the reliability and functional structures. Finally, we proposed an area where the measures could be applied.

Paleoseismic investigations in the Santa Cruz mountains, California: Implications for recurrence of large-magnitude earthquakes on the San Andreas fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, D.P.; Pantosti, D.; Okumura, K.; Powers, T.J.; Hamilton, J.C.

1998-01-01

Trenching, microgeomorphic mapping, and tree ring analysis provide information on timing of paleoearthquakes and behavior of the San Andreas fault in the Santa Cruz mountains. At the Grizzly Flat site alluvial units dated at 1640-1659 A.D., 1679-1894 A.D., 1668-1893 A.D., and the present ground surface are displaced by a single event. This was the 1906 surface rupture. Combined trench dates and tree ring analysis suggest that the penultimate event occurred in the mid-1600s, possibly in an interval as narrow as 1632-1659 A.D. There is no direct evidence in the trenches for the 1838 or 1865 earthquakes, which have been proposed as occurring on this part of the fault zone. In a minimum time of about 340 years only one large surface faulting event (1906) occurred at Grizzly Flat, in contrast to previous recurrence estimates of 95-110 years for the Santa Cruz mountains segment. Comparison with dates of the penultimate San Andreas earthquake at sites north of San Francisco suggests that the San Andreas fault between Point Arena and the Santa Cruz mountains may have failed either as a sequence of closely timed earthquakes on adjacent segments or as a single long rupture similar in length to the 1906 rupture around the mid-1600s. The 1906 coseismic geodetic slip and the late Holocene geologic slip rate on the San Francisco peninsula and southward are about 50-70% and 70% of their values north of San Francisco, respectively. The slip gradient along the 1906 rupture section of the San Andreas reflects partitioning of plate boundary slip onto the San Gregorio, Sargent, and other faults south of the Golden Gate. If a mid-1600s event ruptured the same section of the fault that failed in 1906, it supports the concept that long strike-slip faults can contain master rupture segments that repeat in both length and slip distribution. Recognition of a persistent slip rate gradient along the northern San Andreas fault and the concept of a master segment remove the requirement that lower slip sections of large events such as 1906 must fill in on a periodic basis with smaller and more frequent earthquakes.

A single dynamic observer-based module for design of simultaneous fault detection, isolation and tracking control scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davoodi, M.; Meskin, N.; Khorasani, K.

2018-03-01

The problem of simultaneous fault detection, isolation and tracking (SFDIT) control design for linear systems subject to both bounded energy and bounded peak disturbances is considered in this work. A dynamic observer is proposed and implemented by using the H∞/H-/L1 formulation of the SFDIT problem. A single dynamic observer module is designed that generates the residuals as well as the control signals. The objective of the SFDIT module is to ensure that simultaneously the effects of disturbances and control signals on the residual signals are minimised (in order to accomplish the fault detection goal) subject to the constraint that the transfer matrix from the faults to the residuals is equal to a pre-assigned diagonal transfer matrix (in order to accomplish the fault isolation goal), while the effects of disturbances, reference inputs and faults on the specified control outputs are minimised (in order to accomplish the fault-tolerant and tracking control goals). A set of linear matrix inequality (LMI) feasibility conditions are derived to ensure solvability of the problem. In order to illustrate and demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed design methodology, the developed and proposed schemes are applied to an autonomous unmanned underwater vehicle (AUV).

Computing and Visualizing the Complex Dynamics of Earthquake Fault Systems: Towards Ensemble Earthquake Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rundle, J.; Rundle, P.; Donnellan, A.; Li, P.

2003-12-01

We consider the problem of the complex dynamics of earthquake fault systems, and whether numerical simulations can be used to define an ensemble forecasting technology similar to that used in weather and climate research. To effectively carry out such a program, we need 1) a topological realistic model to simulate the fault system; 2) data sets to constrain the model parameters through a systematic program of data assimilation; 3) a computational technology making use of modern paradigms of high performance and parallel computing systems; and 4) software to visualize and analyze the results. In particular, we focus attention of a new version of our code Virtual California (version 2001) in which we model all of the major strike slip faults extending throughout California, from the Mexico-California border to the Mendocino Triple Junction. We use the historic data set of earthquakes larger than magnitude M > 6 to define the frictional properties of all 654 fault segments (degrees of freedom) in the model. Previous versions of Virtual California had used only 215 fault segments to model the strike slip faults in southern California. To compute the dynamics and the associated surface deformation, we use message passing as implemented in the MPICH standard distribution on a small Beowulf cluster consisting of 10 cpus. We are also planning to run the code on significantly larger machines so that we can begin to examine much finer spatial scales of resolution, and to assess scaling properties of the code. We present results of simulations both as static images and as mpeg movies, so that the dynamical aspects of the computation can be assessed by the viewer. We also compute a variety of statistics from the simulations, including magnitude-frequency relations, and compare these with data from real fault systems.

Dynamic earthquake rupture simulation on nonplanar faults embedded in 3D geometrically complex, heterogeneous Earth models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duru, K.; Dunham, E. M.; Bydlon, S. A.; Radhakrishnan, H.

2014-12-01

Dynamic propagation of shear ruptures on a frictional interface is a useful idealization of a natural earthquake.The conditions relating slip rate and fault shear strength are often expressed as nonlinear friction laws.The corresponding initial boundary value problems are both numerically and computationally challenging.In addition, seismic waves generated by earthquake ruptures must be propagated, far away from fault zones, to seismic stations and remote areas.Therefore, reliable and efficient numerical simulations require both provably stable and high order accurate numerical methods.We present a numerical method for:a) enforcing nonlinear friction laws, in a consistent and provably stable manner, suitable for efficient explicit time integration;b) dynamic propagation of earthquake ruptures along rough faults; c) accurate propagation of seismic waves in heterogeneous media with free surface topography.We solve the first order form of the 3D elastic wave equation on a boundary-conforming curvilinear mesh, in terms of particle velocities and stresses that are collocated in space and time, using summation-by-parts finite differences in space. The finite difference stencils are 6th order accurate in the interior and 3rd order accurate close to the boundaries. Boundary and interface conditions are imposed weakly using penalties. By deriving semi-discrete energy estimates analogous to the continuous energy estimates we prove numerical stability. Time stepping is performed with a 4th order accurate explicit low storage Runge-Kutta scheme. We have performed extensive numerical experiments using a slip-weakening friction law on non-planar faults, including recent SCEC benchmark problems. We also show simulations on fractal faults revealing the complexity of rupture dynamics on rough faults. We are presently extending our method to rate-and-state friction laws and off-fault plasticity.

Improving Multiple Fault Diagnosability using Possible Conflicts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Biswas, Gautam; Koutsoukos, Xenofon; Pulido, Belarmino

2012-01-01

Multiple fault diagnosis is a difficult problem for dynamic systems. Due to fault masking, compensation, and relative time of fault occurrence, multiple faults can manifest in many different ways as observable fault signature sequences. This decreases diagnosability of multiple faults, and therefore leads to a loss in effectiveness of the fault isolation step. We develop a qualitative, event-based, multiple fault isolation framework, and derive several notions of multiple fault diagnosability. We show that using Possible Conflicts, a model decomposition technique that decouples faults from residuals, we can significantly improve the diagnosability of multiple faults compared to an approach using a single global model. We demonstrate these concepts and provide results using a multi-tank system as a case study.

Comprehensive Fault Tolerance and Science-Optimal Attitude Planning for Spacecraft Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasir, Ali

Spacecraft operate in a harsh environment, are costly to launch, and experience unavoidable communication delay and bandwidth constraints. These factors motivate the need for effective onboard mission and fault management. This dissertation presents an integrated framework to optimize science goal achievement while identifying and managing encountered faults. Goal-related tasks are defined by pointing the spacecraft instrumentation toward distant targets of scientific interest. The relative value of science data collection is traded with risk of failures to determine an optimal policy for mission execution. Our major innovation in fault detection and reconfiguration is to incorporate fault information obtained from two types of spacecraft models: one based on the dynamics of the spacecraft and the second based on the internal composition of the spacecraft. For fault reconfiguration, we consider possible changes in both dynamics-based control law configuration and the composition-based switching configuration. We formulate our problem as a stochastic sequential decision problem or Markov Decision Process (MDP). To avoid the computational complexity involved in a fully-integrated MDP, we decompose our problem into multiple MDPs. These MDPs include planning MDPs for different fault scenarios, a fault detection MDP based on a logic-based model of spacecraft component and system functionality, an MDP for resolving conflicts between fault information from the logic-based model and the dynamics-based spacecraft models" and the reconfiguration MDP that generates a policy optimized over the relative importance of the mission objectives versus spacecraft safety. Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP) methods for the decomposition of the planning and fault detection MDPs are applied. To show the performance of the MDP-based frameworks and ADP methods, a suite of spacecraft attitude planning case studies are described. These case studies are used to analyze the content and behavior of computed policies in response to the changes in design parameters. A primary case study is built from the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) mission for which component models and their probabilities of failure are based on realistic mission data. A comparison of our approach with an alternative framework for spacecraft task planning and fault management is presented in the context of the FUSE mission.

Effect of Sediments on Rupture Dynamics of Shallow Subduction Zone Earthquakes and Tsunami Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, S.

2011-12-01

Low-velocity fault zones have long been recognized for crustal earthquakes by using fault-zone trapped waves and geodetic observations on land. However, the most pronounced low-velocity fault zones are probably in the subduction zones where sediments on the seafloor are being continuously subducted. In this study I focus on shallow subduction zone earthquakes; these earthquakes pose a serious threat to human society in their ability in generating large tsunamis. Numerous observations indicate that these earthquakes have unusually long rupture durations, low rupture velocities, and/or small stress drops near the trench. However, the underlying physics is unclear. I will use dynamic rupture simulations with a finite-element method to investigate the dynamic stress evolution on faults induced by both sediments and free surface, and its relations with rupture velocity and slip. I will also explore the effect of off-fault yielding of sediments on the rupture characteristics and seafloor deformation. As shown in Ma and Beroza (2008), the more compliant hanging wall combined with free surface greatly increases the strength drop and slip near the trench. Sediments in the subduction zone likely have a significant role in the rupture dynamics of shallow subduction zone earthquakes and tsunami generation.

Hydrogeology and sources of water to select springs in Black Canyon, south of Hoover Dam, Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Nevada and Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moran, Michael J.; Wilson, Jon W.; Beard, L. Sue

2015-11-03

Several major faults, including the Salt Cedar Fault and the Palm Tree Fault, play an important role in the movement of groundwater. Groundwater may move along these faults and discharge where faults intersect volcanic breccias or fractured rock. Vertical movement of groundwater along faults is suggested as a mechanism for the introduction of heat energy present in groundwater from many of the springs. Groundwater altitudes in the study area indicate a potential for flow from Eldorado Valley to Black Canyon although current interpretations of the geology of this area do not favor such flow. If groundwater from Eldorado Valley discharges at springs in Black Canyon then the development of groundwater resources in Eldorado Valley could result in a decrease in discharge from the springs. Geology and structure indicate that it is not likely that groundwater can move between Detrital Valley and Black Canyon. Thus, the development of groundwater resources in Detrital Valley may not result in a decrease in discharge from springs in Black Canyon.

Bearing faults identification and resonant band demodulation based on wavelet de-noising methods and envelope analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelrhman, Ahmed M.; Sei Kien, Yong; Salman Leong, M.; Meng Hee, Lim; Al-Obaidi, Salah M. Ali

2017-07-01

The vibration signals produced by rotating machinery contain useful information for condition monitoring and fault diagnosis. Fault severities assessment is a challenging task. Wavelet Transform (WT) as a multivariate analysis tool is able to compromise between the time and frequency information in the signals and served as a de-noising method. The CWT scaling function gives different resolutions to the discretely signals such as very fine resolution at lower scale but coarser resolution at a higher scale. However, the computational cost increased as it needs to produce different signal resolutions. DWT has better low computation cost as the dilation function allowed the signals to be decomposed through a tree of low and high pass filters and no further analysing the high-frequency components. In this paper, a method for bearing faults identification is presented by combing Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) and Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) with envelope analysis for bearing fault diagnosis. The experimental data was sampled by Case Western Reserve University. The analysis result showed that the proposed method is effective in bearing faults detection, identify the exact fault’s location and severity assessment especially for the inner race and outer race faults.

Fault Gauge Numerical Simulation : Dynamic Rupture Propagation and Local Energy Partitioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mollon, G.

2017-12-01

In this communication, we present dynamic simulations of the local (centimetric) behaviour of a fault filled with a granular gauge submitted to dynamic rupture. The numerical tool (Fig. 1) combines classical Discrete Element Modelling (albeit with the ability to deal with arbitrary grain shapes) for the simualtion of the gauge, and continuous modelling for the simulation of the acoustic waves emission and propagation. In a first part, the model is applied to the simulation of steady-state shearing of the fault under remote displacement boudary conditions, in order to observe the shear accomodation at the interface (R1 cracks, localization, wear, etc.). It also makes it possible to fit to desired values the Rate and State Friction properties of the granular gauge by adapting the contact laws between grains. Such simulations provide quantitative insight in the steady-state energy partitionning between fracture, friction and acoustic emissions as a function of the shear rate. In a second part, the model is submitted to dynamic rupture. For that purpose, the fault is elastically preloaded just below rupture, and a displacement pulse is applied at one end of the sample (and on only one side of the fault). This allows to observe the propagation of the instability along the fault and the interplay between this propagation and the local granular phenomena. Energy partitionning is then observed both in space and time.

Experimental evaluation of the certification-trail method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, Gregory F.; Wilson, Dwight S.; Masson, Gerald M.; Itoh, Mamoru; Smith, Warren W.; Kay, Jonathan S.

1993-01-01

Certification trails are a recently introduced and promising approach to fault-detection and fault-tolerance. A comprehensive attempt to assess experimentally the performance and overall value of the method is reported. The method is applied to algorithms for the following problems: huffman tree, shortest path, minimum spanning tree, sorting, and convex hull. Our results reveal many cases in which an approach using certification-trails allows for significantly faster overall program execution time than a basic time redundancy-approach. Algorithms for the answer-validation problem for abstract data types were also examined. This kind of problem provides a basis for applying the certification-trail method to wide classes of algorithms. Answer-validation solutions for two types of priority queues were implemented and analyzed. In both cases, the algorithm which performs answer-validation is substantially faster than the original algorithm for computing the answer. Next, a probabilistic model and analysis which enables comparison between the certification-trail method and the time-redundancy approach were presented. The analysis reveals some substantial and sometimes surprising advantages for ther certification-trail method. Finally, the work our group performed on the design and implementation of fault injection testbeds for experimental analysis of the certification trail technique is discussed. This work employs two distinct methodologies, software fault injection (modification of instruction, data, and stack segments of programs on a Sun Sparcstation ELC and on an IBM 386 PC) and hardware fault injection (control, address, and data lines of a Motorola MC68000-based target system pulsed at logical zero/one values). Our results indicate the viability of the certification trail technique. It is also believed that the tools developed provide a solid base for additional exploration.

Multiscale Dynamics of Aseismic Slip on Central San Andreas Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khoshmanesh, M.; Shirzaei, M.

2018-03-01

Understanding the evolution of aseismic slip enables constraining the fault's seismic budget and provides insight into dynamics of creep. Inverting the time series of surface deformation measured along the Central San Andreas Fault obtained from interferometric synthetic aperture radar in combination with measurements of repeating earthquakes, we constrain the spatiotemporal distribution of creep during 1992-2010. We identify a new class of intermediate-term creep rate variations that evolve over decadal scale, releasing stress on the accelerating zone and loading adjacent decelerating patches. We further show that in short-term (<2 year period), creep avalanches, that is, isolated clusters of accelerated aseismic slip with velocities exceeding the long-term rate, govern the dynamics of creep. The statistical properties of these avalanches suggest existence of elevated pore pressure in the fault zone, consistent with laboratory experiments.

A suite of exercises for verifying dynamic earthquake rupture codes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, Ruth A.; Barall, Michael; Aagaard, Brad T.; Ma, Shuo; Roten, Daniel; Olsen, Kim B.; Duan, Benchun; Liu, Dunyu; Luo, Bin; Bai, Kangchen; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Kaneko, Yoshihiro; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Duru, Kenneth; Ulrich, Thomas; Wollherr, Stephanie; Shi, Zheqiang; Dunham, Eric; Bydlon, Sam; Zhang, Zhenguo; Chen, Xiaofei; Somala, Surendra N.; Pelties, Christian; Tago, Josue; Cruz-Atienza, Victor Manuel; Kozdon, Jeremy; Daub, Eric; Aslam, Khurram; Kase, Yuko; Withers, Kyle; Dalguer, Luis

2018-01-01

We describe a set of benchmark exercises that are designed to test if computer codes that simulate dynamic earthquake rupture are working as intended. These types of computer codes are often used to understand how earthquakes operate, and they produce simulation results that include earthquake size, amounts of fault slip, and the patterns of ground shaking and crustal deformation. The benchmark exercises examine a range of features that scientists incorporate in their dynamic earthquake rupture simulations. These include implementations of simple or complex fault geometry, off‐fault rock response to an earthquake, stress conditions, and a variety of formulations for fault friction. Many of the benchmarks were designed to investigate scientific problems at the forefronts of earthquake physics and strong ground motions research. The exercises are freely available on our website for use by the scientific community.

Robust Gain-Scheduled Fault Tolerant Control for a Transport Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shin, Jong-Yeob; Gregory, Irene

2007-01-01

This paper presents an application of robust gain-scheduled control concepts using a linear parameter-varying (LPV) control synthesis method to design fault tolerant controllers for a civil transport aircraft. To apply the robust LPV control synthesis method, the nonlinear dynamics must be represented by an LPV model, which is developed using the function substitution method over the entire flight envelope. The developed LPV model associated with the aerodynamic coefficient uncertainties represents nonlinear dynamics including those outside the equilibrium manifold. Passive and active fault tolerant controllers (FTC) are designed for the longitudinal dynamics of the Boeing 747-100/200 aircraft in the presence of elevator failure. Both FTC laws are evaluated in the full nonlinear aircraft simulation in the presence of the elevator fault and the results are compared to show pros and cons of each control law.

Investigation of Fuel Oil/Lube Oil Spray Fires On Board Vessels. Volume 3.

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-11-01

U.S. Coast Guard Research and Development Center 1082 Shennecossett Road, Groton, CT 06340-6096 Report No. CG-D-01-99, III Investigation of Fuel ...refinery). Developed the technical and mathematical specifications for BRAVO™2.0, a state-of-the-art Windows program for performing event tree and fault...tree analyses. Also managed the development of and prepared the technical specifications for QRA ROOTS™, a Windows program for storing, searching K-4

Defense Small Business Innovation Research Program (SBIR). Volume 3. Air Force Abstracts of Phase 1 Awards 1992

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-01-01

boost plenum which houses the camshaft . The compressed mixture is metered by a throttle to intake valves of the engine. The engine is constructed from...difficulties associated with a time-tagged fault tree . In particular, recent work indicates that the multi-layer perception architecture can give good fdi...Abstract: In the past decade, wastepaper recycling has gained a wider acceptance. Depletion of tree stocks, waste water treatment demands and

Interim reliability evaluation program, Browns Ferry 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1981-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis techniques, i.e., event tree and fault tree analysis, were utilized to provide a risk assessment of the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Unit 1. Browns Ferry 1 is a General Electric boiling water reactor of the BWR 4 product line with a Mark 1 (drywell and torus) containment. Within the guidelines of the IREP Procedure and Schedule Guide, dominant accident sequences that contribute to public health and safety risks were identified and grouped according to release categories.

Modelling earthquake ruptures with dynamic off-fault damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okubo, Kurama; Bhat, Harsha S.; Klinger, Yann; Rougier, Esteban

2017-04-01

Earthquake rupture modelling has been developed for producing scenario earthquakes. This includes understanding the source mechanisms and estimating far-field ground motion with given a priori constraints like fault geometry, constitutive law of the medium and friction law operating on the fault. It is necessary to consider all of the above complexities of a fault systems to conduct realistic earthquake rupture modelling. In addition to the complexity of the fault geometry in nature, coseismic off-fault damage, which is observed by a variety of geological and seismological methods, plays a considerable role on the resultant ground motion and its spectrum compared to a model with simple planer fault surrounded by purely elastic media. Ideally all of these complexities should be considered in earthquake modelling. State of the art techniques developed so far, however, cannot treat all of them simultaneously due to a variety of computational restrictions. Therefore, we adopt the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM), which can effectively deal with pre-existing complex fault geometry such as fault branches and kinks and can describe coseismic off-fault damage generated during the dynamic rupture. The advantage of FDEM is that it can handle a wide range of length scales, from metric to kilometric scale, corresponding to the off-fault damage and complex fault geometry respectively. We used the FDEM-based software tool called HOSSedu (Hybrid Optimization Software Suite - Educational Version) for the earthquake rupture modelling, which was developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory. We firstly conducted the cross-validation of this new methodology against other conventional numerical schemes such as the finite difference method (FDM), the spectral element method (SEM) and the boundary integral equation method (BIEM), to evaluate the accuracy with various element sizes and artificial viscous damping values. We demonstrate the capability of the FDEM tool for modelling earthquake ruptures. We then modelled earthquake ruptures allowing for coseismic off-fault damage with appropriate fracture nucleation and growth criteria. We studied the effect of different conditions such as rupture speed (sub-Rayleigh or supershear), the orientation of the initial maximum principal stress with respect to the fault and the magnitude of the initial stress (to mimic depth). The comparison between the sub-Rayleigh and supershear case shows that the coseismic off-fault damage is enhanced in the supershear case when compared with the sub-Rayleigh case. The orientation of the maximum principal stress also has significant difference such that the dynamic off-fault cracking is more likely to occur on the extensional side of the fault for high principal stress orientation. It is found that the coseismic off-fault damage reduces the rupture speed due to the dissipation of the energy by dynamic off-fault cracking generated in the vicinity of the rupture front. In terms of the ground motion amplitude spectra it is shown that the high-frequency radiation is enhanced by the coseismic off-fault damage though it is quickly attenuated. This is caused by the intricate superposition of the radiation generated by the off-fault damage and the perturbation of the rupture speed on the main fault.

Rupture history of 2008 May 12 Mw 8.0 Wen-Chuan earthquake: Evidence of slip interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, C.; Shao, G.; Lu, Z.; Hudnut, K.; Jiu, J.; Hayes, G.; Zeng, Y.

2008-12-01

We will present the rupture process of the May 12, 2008 Mw 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake using all available data. The current model, using both teleseismic body and surface waves and interferometric LOS displacements, reveals an unprecedented complex rupture process which can not be resolved using either of the datasets individually. Rupture of this earthquake involved both the low angle Pengguan fault and the high angle Beichuan fault, which intersect each other at depth and are separated approximately 5-15 km at the surface. Rupture initiated on the Pengguan fault and triggered rupture on the Beichuan fault 10 sec later. The two faults dynamically interacted and unilaterally ruptured over 270 km with an average rupture velocity of 3.0 km/sec. The total seismic moment is 1.1x1021 Nm (Mw 8.0), roughly equally partitioned between the two faults. However, the spatiotemporal evaluations of the two faults are very different. This study will focus on the evidence for fault interactions and will analyze the corresponding uncertainties, in preparation for future dynamic studies of the same detailed nature.

Tree cover bimodality in savannas and forests emerging from the switching between two fire dynamics.

PubMed

De Michele, Carlo; Accatino, Francesco

2014-01-01

Moist savannas and tropical forests share the same climatic conditions and occur side by side. Experimental evidences show that the tree cover of these ecosystems exhibits a bimodal frequency distribution. This is considered as a proof of savanna-forest bistability, predicted by dynamic vegetation models based on non-linear differential equations. Here, we propose a change of perspective about the bimodality of tree cover distribution. We show, using a simple matrix model of tree dynamics, how the bimodality of tree cover can emerge from the switching between two linear dynamics of trees, one in presence and one in absence of fire, with a feedback between fire and trees. As consequence, we find that the transitions between moist savannas and tropical forests, if sharp, are not necessarily catastrophic.

CARE3MENU- A CARE III USER FRIENDLY INTERFACE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierce, J. L.

1994-01-01

CARE3MENU generates an input file for the CARE III program. CARE III is used for reliability prediction of complex, redundant, fault-tolerant systems including digital computers, aircraft, nuclear and chemical control systems. The CARE III input file often becomes complicated and is not easily formatted with a text editor. CARE3MENU provides an easy, interactive method of creating an input file by automatically formatting a set of user-supplied inputs for the CARE III system. CARE3MENU provides detailed on-line help for most of its screen formats. The reliability model input process is divided into sections using menu-driven screen displays. Each stage, or set of identical modules comprising the model, must be identified and described in terms of number of modules, minimum number of modules for stage operation, and critical fault threshold. The fault handling and fault occurence models are detailed in several screens by parameters such as transition rates, propagation and detection densities, Weibull or exponential characteristics, and model accuracy. The system fault tree and critical pairs fault tree screens are used to define the governing logic and to identify modules affected by component failures. Additional CARE3MENU screens prompt the user for output options and run time control values such as mission time and truncation values. There are fourteen major screens, many with default values and HELP options. The documentation includes: 1) a users guide with several examples of CARE III models, the dialog required to input them to CARE3MENU, and the output files created; and 2) a maintenance manual for assistance in changing the HELP files and modifying any of the menu formats or contents. CARE3MENU is written in FORTRAN 77 for interactive execution and has been implemented on a DEC VAX series computer operating under VMS. This program was developed in 1985.

Synthetic Earthquake Statistics From Physical Fault Models for the Lower Rhine Embayment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brietzke, G. B.; Hainzl, S.; Zöller, G.

2012-04-01

As of today, seismic risk and hazard estimates mostly use pure empirical, stochastic models of earthquake fault systems tuned specifically to the vulnerable areas of interest. Although such models allow for reasonable risk estimates they fail to provide a link between the observed seismicity and the underlying physical processes. Solving a state-of-the-art fully dynamic description set of all relevant physical processes related to earthquake fault systems is likely not useful since it comes with a large number of degrees of freedom, poor constraints on its model parameters and a huge computational effort. Here, quasi-static and quasi-dynamic physical fault simulators provide a compromise between physical completeness and computational affordability and aim at providing a link between basic physical concepts and statistics of seismicity. Within the framework of quasi-static and quasi-dynamic earthquake simulators we investigate a model of the Lower Rhine Embayment (LRE) that is based upon seismological and geological data. We present and discuss statistics of the spatio-temporal behavior of generated synthetic earthquake catalogs with respect to simplification (e.g. simple two-fault cases) as well as to complication (e.g. hidden faults, geometric complexity, heterogeneities of constitutive parameters).

Effect of water phase transition on dynamic ruptures with thermal pressurization: Numerical simulations with changes in physical properties of water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Yumi; Kuge, Keiko; Kase, Yuko

2015-02-01

Phase transitions of pore water have never been considered in dynamic rupture simulations with thermal pressurization (TP), although they may control TP. From numerical simulations of dynamic rupture propagation including TP, in the absence of any water phase transition process, we predict that frictional heating and TP are likely to change liquid pore water into supercritical water for a strike-slip fault under depth-dependent stress. This phase transition causes changes of a few orders of magnitude in viscosity, compressibility, and thermal expansion among physical properties of water, thus affecting the diffusion of pore pressure. Accordingly, we perform numerical simulations of dynamic ruptures with TP, considering physical properties that vary with the pressure and temperature of pore water on a fault. To observe the effects of the phase transition, we assume uniform initial stress and no fault-normal variations in fluid density and viscosity. The results suggest that the varying physical properties decrease the total slip in cases with high stress at depth and small shear zone thickness. When fault-normal variations in fluid density and viscosity are included in the diffusion equation, they activate TP much earlier than the phase transition. As a consequence, the total slip becomes greater than that in the case with constant physical properties, eradicating the phase transition effect. Varying physical properties do not affect the rupture velocity, irrespective of the fault-normal variations. Thus, the phase transition of pore water has little effect on dynamic ruptures. Fault-normal variations in fluid density and viscosity may play a more significant role.

Dynamic rupture modeling of the transition from thrust to strike-slip motion in the 2002 Denali fault earthquake, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aagaard, Brad T.; Anderson, G.; Hudnut, K.W.

2004-01-01

We use three-dimensional dynamic (spontaneous) rupture models to investigate the nearly simultaneous ruptures of the Susitna Glacier thrust fault and the Denali strike-slip fault. With the 1957 Mw 8.3 Gobi-Altay, Mongolia, earthquake as the only other well-documented case of significant, nearly simultaneous rupture of both thrust and strike-slip faults, this feature of the 2002 Denali fault earthquake provides a unique opportunity to investigate the mechanisms responsible for development of these large, complex events. We find that the geometry of the faults and the orientation of the regional stress field caused slip on the Susitna Glacier fault to load the Denali fault. Several different stress orientations with oblique right-lateral motion on the Susitna Glacier fault replicate the triggering of rupture on the Denali fault about 10 sec after the rupture nucleates on the Susitna Glacier fault. However, generating slip directions compatible with measured surface offsets and kinematic source inversions requires perturbing the stress orientation from that determined with focal mechanisms of regional events. Adjusting the vertical component of the principal stress tensor for the regional stress field so that it is more consistent with a mixture of strike-slip and reverse faulting significantly improves the fit of the slip-rake angles to the data. Rotating the maximum horizontal compressive stress direction westward appears to improve the fit even further.

An online outlier identification and removal scheme for improving fault detection performance.

PubMed

Ferdowsi, Hasan; Jagannathan, Sarangapani; Zawodniok, Maciej

2014-05-01

Measured data or states for a nonlinear dynamic system is usually contaminated by outliers. Identifying and removing outliers will make the data (or system states) more trustworthy and reliable since outliers in the measured data (or states) can cause missed or false alarms during fault diagnosis. In addition, faults can make the system states nonstationary needing a novel analytical model-based fault detection (FD) framework. In this paper, an online outlier identification and removal (OIR) scheme is proposed for a nonlinear dynamic system. Since the dynamics of the system can experience unknown changes due to faults, traditional observer-based techniques cannot be used to remove the outliers. The OIR scheme uses a neural network (NN) to estimate the actual system states from measured system states involving outliers. With this method, the outlier detection is performed online at each time instant by finding the difference between the estimated and the measured states and comparing its median with its standard deviation over a moving time window. The NN weight update law in OIR is designed such that the detected outliers will have no effect on the state estimation, which is subsequently used for model-based fault diagnosis. In addition, since the OIR estimator cannot distinguish between the faulty or healthy operating conditions, a separate model-based observer is designed for fault diagnosis, which uses the OIR scheme as a preprocessing unit to improve the FD performance. The stability analysis of both OIR and fault diagnosis schemes are introduced. Finally, a three-tank benchmarking system and a simple linear system are used to verify the proposed scheme in simulations, and then the scheme is applied on an axial piston pump testbed. The scheme can be applied to nonlinear systems whose dynamics and underlying distribution of states are subjected to change due to both unknown faults and operating conditions.

Dynamic Simulations for the Seismic Behavior on the Shallow Part of the Fault Plane in the Subduction Zone during Mega-Thrust Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuda, K.; Dorjapalam, S.; Dan, K.; Ogawa, S.; Watanabe, T.; Uratani, H.; Iwase, S.

2012-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (M9.0) produced some distinct features such as huge slips on the order of several ten meters around the shallow part of the fault and different areas with radiating seismic waves for different periods (e.g., Lay et al., 2012). These features, also reported during the past mega-thrust earthquakes in the subduction zone such as the 2004 Sumatra earthquake (M9.2) and the 2010 Chile earthquake (M8.8), get attentions as the distinct features if the rupture of the mega-thrust earthquakes reaches to the shallow part of the fault plane. Although various kinds of observations for the seismic behavior (rupture process and ground motion characteristics etc.) on the shallow part of the fault plane during the mega-trust earthquakes have been reported, the number of analytical or numerical studies based on dynamic simulation is still limited. Wendt et al. (2009), for example, revealed that the different distribution of initial stress produces huge differences in terms of the seismic behavior and vertical displacements on the surface. In this study, we carried out the dynamic simulations in order to get a better understanding about the seismic behavior on the shallow part of the fault plane during mega-thrust earthquakes. We used the spectral element method (Ampuero, 2009) that is able to incorporate the complex fault geometry into simulation as well as to save computational resources. The simulation utilizes the slip-weakening law (Ida, 1972). In order to get a better understanding about the seismic behavior on the shallow part of the fault plane, some parameters controlling seismic behavior for dynamic faulting such as critical slip distance (Dc), initial stress conditions and friction coefficients were changed and we also put the asperity on the fault plane. These understandings are useful for the ground motion prediction for future mega-thrust earthquakes such as the earthquakes along the Nankai Trough.

Dynamic permeability in fault damage zones induced by repeated coseismic fracturing events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aben, F. M.; Doan, M. L.; Mitchell, T. M.

2017-12-01

Off-fault fracture damage in upper crustal fault zones change the fault zone properties and affect various co- and interseismic processes. One of these properties is the permeability of the fault damage zone rocks, which is generally higher than the surrounding host rock. This allows large-scale fluid flow through the fault zone that affects fault healing and promotes mineral transformation processes. Moreover, it might play an important role in thermal fluid pressurization during an earthquake rupture. The damage zone permeability is dynamic due to coseismic damaging. It is crucial for earthquake mechanics and for longer-term processes to understand how the dynamic permeability structure of a fault looks like and how it evolves with repeated earthquakes. To better detail coseismically induced permeability, we have performed uniaxial split Hopkinson pressure bar experiments on quartz-monzonite rock samples. Two sample sets were created and analyzed: single-loaded samples subjected to varying loading intensities - with damage varying from apparently intact to pulverized - and samples loaded at a constant intensity but with a varying number of repeated loadings. The first set resembles a dynamic permeability structure created by a single large earthquake. The second set resembles a permeability structure created by several earthquakes. After, the permeability and acoustic velocities were measured as a function of confining pressure. The permeability in both datasets shows a large and non-linear increase over several orders of magnitude (from 10-20 up to 10-14 m2) with an increasing amount of fracture damage. This, combined with microstructural analyses of the varying degrees of damage, suggests a percolation threshold. The percolation threshold does not coincide with the pulverization threshold. With increasing confining pressure, the permeability might drop up to two orders of magnitude, which supports the possibility of large coseismic fluid pulses over relatively large distances along a fault. Also, a relatively small threshold could potentially increase permeability in a large volume of rock, given that previous earthquakes already damaged these rocks.

Critical Evolution of Damage Toward System-Size Failure in Crystalline Rock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renard, François; Weiss, Jérôme; Mathiesen, Joachim; Ben-Zion, Yehuda; Kandula, Neelima; Cordonnier, Benoît

2018-02-01

Rock failure under shear loading conditions controls earthquake and faulting phenomena. We study the dynamics of microscale damage precursory to shear faulting in a quartz-monzonite rock representative of crystalline rocks of the continental crust. Using a triaxial rig that is transparent to X-rays, we image the mechanical evolution of centimeter-size core samples by in situ synchrotron microtomography with a resolution of 6.5 μm. Time-lapse three-dimensional images of the samples inside the rig provide a unique data set of microstructural evolution toward faulting. Above a yield point there is a gradual weakening during which microfractures nucleate and grow until this damage span the whole sample. This leads to shear faults oriented about 30° to the main compressive stress in agreement with Anderson's theory and macroscopic failure. The microfractures can be extracted from the three-dimensional images, and their dynamics and morphology (i.e., number, volume, orientation, shape, and largest cluster) are quantified as a function of increasing stress toward failure. The experimental data show for the first time that the total volume of microfractures, the rate of damage growth, and the size of the largest microfracture all increase and diverge when approaching faulting. The average flatness of the microfractures (i.e., the ratio between the second and third eigenvalues of their covariance matrix) shows a significant decrease near failure. The precursors to faulting developing in the future faulting zone are controlled by the evolving microfracture population. Their divergent dynamics toward failure is reminiscent of a dynamical critical transition.

TU-AB-BRD-03: Fault Tree Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dunscombe, P.

2015-06-15

Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before amore » failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to perform failure modes and effects analysis analysis for a given process Learn what fault trees are all about Learn how to design a quality management program based upon the information obtained from process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analysis. Dunscombe: Director, TreatSafely, LLC and Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences; Consultant to IAEA and Varian Thomadsen: President, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences Palta: Vice President of the Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences.« less

Dynamic stresses, coulomb failure, and remote triggering: corrected

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, David P.

2012-01-01

Dynamic stresses associated with crustal surface waves with 15–30 s periods and peak amplitudes <1  MPa are capable of triggering seismicity at sites remote from the generating mainshock under appropriate conditions. Coulomb failure models based on a frictional strength threshold offer one explanation for instances of rapid‐onset triggered seismicity that develop during the surface‐wave peak dynamic stressing. Evaluation of the triggering potential of surface‐wave dynamic stresses acting on critically stressed faults using a Mohr’s circle representation together with the Coulomb failure criteria indicates that Love waves should have a higher triggering potential than Rayleigh waves for most fault orientations and wave incidence angles. That (1) the onset of triggered seismicity often appears to begin during the Rayleigh wave rather than the earlier arriving Love wave, and (2) Love‐wave amplitudes typically exceed those for Rayleigh waves suggests that the explanation for rapid‐onset dynamic triggering may not reside solely with a simple static‐threshold friction mode. The results also indicate that normal faults should be more susceptible to dynamic triggering by 20‐s Rayleigh‐wave stresses than thrust faults in the shallow seismogenic crust (<10  km) while the advantage tips in favor of reverse faults greater depths. This transition depth scales with wavelength and coincides roughly with the transition from retrograde‐to‐prograde particle motion. Locally elevated pore pressures may have a role in the observed prevalence of dynamic triggering in extensional regimes and geothermal/volcanic systems. The result is consistent with the apparent elevated susceptibility of extensional or transtensional tectonic regimes to remote triggering by Rayleigh‐wave dynamic stresses than compressional or transpressional regimes.

Teleseismic body waves from dynamically rupturing shallow thrust faults: Are they opaque for surface-reflected phases?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, D.E.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Heaton, T.H.

2005-01-01

We investigate whether a shallow-dipping thrust fault is prone to waveslip interactions via surface-reflected waves affecting the dynamic slip. If so, can these interactions create faults that are opaque to radiated energy? Furthermore, in this case of a shallow-dipping thrust fault, can incorrectly assuming a transparent fault while using dislocation theory lead to underestimates of seismic moment? Slip time histories are generated in three-dimensional dynamic rupture simulations while allowing for varying degrees of wave-slip interaction controlled by fault-friction models. Based on the slip time histories, P and SH seismograms are calculated for stations at teleseismic distances. The overburdening pressure caused by gravity eliminates mode I opening except at the tip of the fault near the surface; hence, mode I opening has no effect on the teleseismic signal. Normalizing by a Haskell-like traditional kinematic rupture, we find teleseismic peak-to-peak displacement amplitudes are approximately 1.0 for both P and SH waves, except for the unrealistic case of zero sliding friction. Zero sliding friction has peak-to-peak amplitudes of 1.6 for P and 2.0 for SH waves; the fault slip oscillates about its equilibrium value, resulting in a large nonzero (0.08 Hz) spectral peak not seen in other ruptures. These results indicate wave-slip interactions associated with surface-reflected phases in real earthquakes should have little to no effect on teleseismic motions. Thus, Haskell-like kinematic dislocation theory (transparent fault conditions) can be safety used to simulate teleseismic waveforms in the Earth.

Source parameters of the 2013, Ms 7.0, Lushan earthquake and the characteristics of the near-fault strong ground motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Fengfan; Meng, Lingyuan

2016-04-01

The April 20, 2013 Ms 7.0, earthquake in Lushan city, Sichuan province of China occurred as the result of east-west oriented reverse-type motion on a north-south striking fault. The source location suggests the event occurred on the Southern part of Longmenshan fault at a depth of 13km. The maximum intensity is up to VIII to IX at Boxing and Lushan city, which are located in the meizoseismal area. In this study, we analyzed the dynamic source process with the source mechanism and empirical relationships, estimated the strong ground motion in the near-fault field based on the Brune's circle model. A dynamical composite source model (DCSM) has been developed to simulate the near-fault strong ground motion with associated fault rupture properties at Boxing and Lushan city, respectively. The results indicate that the frictional undershoot behavior in the dynamic source process of Lushan earthquake, which is actually different from the overshoot activity of the Wenchuan earthquake. Moreover, we discussed the characteristics of the strong ground motion in the near-fault field, that the broadband synthetic seismogram ground motion predictions for Boxing and Lushan city produced larger peak values, shorter durations and higher frequency contents. It indicates that the factors in near-fault strong ground motion was under the influence of higher effect stress drop and asperity slip distributions on the fault plane. This work is financially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41404045) and by Science for Earthquake Resilience of CEA (XH14055Y).

Foreshocks during the nucleation of stick-slip instability

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLaskey, Gregory C.; Kilgore, Brian D.

2013-01-01

We report on laboratory experiments which investigate interactions between aseismic slip, stress changes, and seismicity on a critically stressed fault during the nucleation of stick-slip instability. We monitor quasi-static and dynamic changes in local shear stress and fault slip with arrays of gages deployed along a simulated strike-slip fault (2 m long and 0.4 m deep) in a saw cut sample of Sierra White granite. With 14 piezoelectric sensors, we simultaneously monitor seismic signals produced during the nucleation phase and subsequent dynamic rupture. We observe localized aseismic fault slip in an approximately meter-sized zone in the center of the fault, while the ends of the fault remain locked. Clusters of high-frequency foreshocks (Mw ~ −6.5 to −5.0) can occur in this slowly slipping zone 5–50 ms prior to the initiation of dynamic rupture; their occurrence appears to be dependent on the rate at which local shear stress is applied to the fault. The meter-sized nucleation zone is generally consistent with theoretical estimates, but source radii of the foreshocks (2 to 70 mm) are 1 to 2 orders of magnitude smaller than the theoretical minimum length scale over which earthquake nucleation can occur. We propose that frictional stability and the transition between seismic and aseismic slip are modulated by local stressing rate and that fault sections, which would typically slip aseismically, may radiate seismic waves if they are rapidly stressed. Fault behavior of this type may provide physical insight into the mechanics of foreshocks, tremor, repeating earthquake sequences, and a minimum earthquake source dimension.

Probabilistic seismic hazard study based on active fault and finite element geodynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kastelic, Vanja; Carafa, Michele M. C.; Visini, Francesco

2016-04-01

We present a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) that is exclusively based on active faults and geodynamic finite element input models whereas seismic catalogues were used only in a posterior comparison. We applied the developed model in the External Dinarides, a slow deforming thrust-and-fold belt at the contact between Adria and Eurasia.. is the Our method consists of establishing s two earthquake rupture forecast models: (i) a geological active fault input (GEO) model and, (ii) a finite element (FEM) model. The GEO model is based on active fault database that provides information on fault location and its geometric and kinematic parameters together with estimations on its slip rate. By default in this model all deformation is set to be released along the active faults. The FEM model is based on a numerical geodynamic model developed for the region of study. In this model the deformation is, besides along the active faults, released also in the volumetric continuum elements. From both models we calculated their corresponding activity rates, its earthquake rates and their final expected peak ground accelerations. We investigated both the source model and the earthquake model uncertainties by varying the main active fault and earthquake rate calculation parameters through constructing corresponding branches of the seismic hazard logic tree. Hazard maps and UHS curves have been produced for horizontal ground motion on bedrock conditions VS 30 ≥ 800 m/s), thereby not considering local site amplification effects. The hazard was computed over a 0.2° spaced grid considering 648 branches of the logic tree and the mean value of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years hazard level, while the 5th and 95th percentiles were also computed to investigate the model limits. We conducted a sensitivity analysis to control which of the input parameters influence the final hazard results in which measure. The results of such comparison evidence the deformation model and with their internal variability together with the choice of the ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are the most influencing parameter. Both of these parameters have significan affect on the hazard results. Thus having good knowledge of the existence of active faults and their geometric and activity characteristics is of key importance. We also show that PSHA models based exclusively on active faults and geodynamic inputs, which are thus not dependent on past earthquake occurrences, provide a valid method for seismic hazard calculation.

Parameter Transient Behavior Analysis on Fault Tolerant Control System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine (Technical Monitor); Shin, Jong-Yeob

2003-01-01

In a fault tolerant control (FTC) system, a parameter varying FTC law is reconfigured based on fault parameters estimated by fault detection and isolation (FDI) modules. FDI modules require some time to detect fault occurrences in aero-vehicle dynamics. This paper illustrates analysis of a FTC system based on estimated fault parameter transient behavior which may include false fault detections during a short time interval. Using Lyapunov function analysis, the upper bound of an induced-L2 norm of the FTC system performance is calculated as a function of a fault detection time and the exponential decay rate of the Lyapunov function.

Batch process fault detection and identification based on discriminant global preserving kernel slow feature analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Hanyuan; Tian, Xuemin; Deng, Xiaogang; Cao, Yuping

2018-05-16

As an attractive nonlinear dynamic data analysis tool, global preserving kernel slow feature analysis (GKSFA) has achieved great success in extracting the high nonlinearity and inherently time-varying dynamics of batch process. However, GKSFA is an unsupervised feature extraction method and lacks the ability to utilize batch process class label information, which may not offer the most effective means for dealing with batch process monitoring. To overcome this problem, we propose a novel batch process monitoring method based on the modified GKSFA, referred to as discriminant global preserving kernel slow feature analysis (DGKSFA), by closely integrating discriminant analysis and GKSFA. The proposed DGKSFA method can extract discriminant feature of batch process as well as preserve global and local geometrical structure information of observed data. For the purpose of fault detection, a monitoring statistic is constructed based on the distance between the optimal kernel feature vectors of test data and normal data. To tackle the challenging issue of nonlinear fault variable identification, a new nonlinear contribution plot method is also developed to help identifying the fault variable after a fault is detected, which is derived from the idea of variable pseudo-sample trajectory projection in DGKSFA nonlinear biplot. Simulation results conducted on a numerical nonlinear dynamic system and the benchmark fed-batch penicillin fermentation process demonstrate that the proposed process monitoring and fault diagnosis approach can effectively detect fault and distinguish fault variables from normal variables. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A fault is born: The Landers-Mojave earthquake line

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nur, A.; Ron, H.

1993-04-01

The epicenter and the southern portion of the 1992 Landers earthquake fell on an approximately N-S earthquake line, defined by both epicentral locations and by the rupture directions of four previous M>5 earthquakes in the Mojave: The 1947 Manix; 1975 Galway Lake; 1979 Homestead Valley: and 1992 Joshua Tree events. Another M 5.2 earthquake epicenter in 1965 fell on this line where it intersects the Calico fault. In contrast, the northern part of the Landers rupture followed the NW-SE trending Camp Rock and parallel faults, exhibiting an apparently unusual rupture kink. The block tectonic model (Ron et al., 1984) combiningmore » fault kinematic and mechanics, explains both the alignment of the events, and their ruptures (Nur et al., 1986, 1989), as well as the Landers kink (Nur et al., 1992). Accordingly, the now NW oriented faults have rotated into their present direction away from the direction of maximum shortening, close to becoming locked, whereas a new fault set, optimally oriented relative to the direction of shortening, is developing to accommodate current crustal deformation. The Mojave-Landers line may thus be a new fault in formation. During the transition of faulting from the old, well developed and wak but poorly oriented faults to the strong, but favorably oriented new ones, both can slip simultaneously, giving rise to kinks such as Landers.« less

Quantitative method of medication system interface evaluation.

PubMed

Pingenot, Alleene Anne; Shanteau, James; Pingenot, James D F

2007-01-01

The objective of this study was to develop a quantitative method of evaluating the user interface for medication system software. A detailed task analysis provided a description of user goals and essential activity. A structural fault analysis was used to develop a detailed description of the system interface. Nurses experienced with use of the system under evaluation provided estimates of failure rates for each point in this simplified fault tree. Means of estimated failure rates provided quantitative data for fault analysis. Authors note that, although failures of steps in the program were frequent, participants reported numerous methods of working around these failures so that overall system failure was rare. However, frequent process failure can affect the time required for processing medications, making a system inefficient. This method of interface analysis, called Software Efficiency Evaluation and Fault Identification Method, provides quantitative information with which prototypes can be compared and problems within an interface identified.

An Application of the Geo-Semantic Micro-services in Seamless Data-Model Integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, P.; Elag, M.; Kumar, P.; Liu, R.; Hu, Y.; Marini, L.; Peckham, S. D.; Hsu, L.

2016-12-01

We are applying machine learning (ML) techniques to continuous acoustic emission (AE) data from laboratory earthquake experiments. Our goal is to apply explicit ML methods to this acoustic datathe AE in order to infer frictional properties of a laboratory fault. The experiment is a double direct shear apparatus comprised of fault blocks surrounding fault gouge comprised of glass beads or quartz powder. Fault characteristics are recorded, including shear stress, applied load (bulk friction = shear stress/normal load) and shear velocity. The raw acoustic signal is continuously recorded. We rely on explicit decision tree approaches (Random Forest and Gradient Boosted Trees) that allow us to identify important features linked to the fault friction. A training procedure that employs both the AE and the recorded shear stress from the experiment is first conducted. Then, testing takes place on data the algorithm has never seen before, using only the continuous AE signal. We find that these methods provide rich information regarding frictional processes during slip (Rouet-Leduc et al., 2017a; Hulbert et al., 2017). In addition, similar machine learning approaches predict failure times, as well as slip magnitudes in some cases. We find that these methods work for both stick slip and slow slip experiments, for periodic slip and for aperiodic slip. We also derive a fundamental relationship between the AE and the friction describing the frictional behavior of any earthquake slip cycle in a given experiment (Rouet-Leduc et al., 2017b). Our goal is to ultimately scale these approaches to Earth geophysical data to probe fault friction. References Rouet-Leduc, B., C. Hulbert, N. Lubbers, K. Barros, C. Humphreys and P. A. Johnson, Machine learning predicts laboratory earthquakes, in review (2017). https://arxiv.org/abs/1702.05774Rouet-LeDuc, B. et al., Friction Laws Derived From the Acoustic Emissions of a Laboratory Fault by Machine Learning (2017), AGU Fall Meeting Session S025: Earthquake source: from the laboratory to the fieldHulbert, C., Characterizing slow slip applying machine learning (2017), AGU Fall Meeting Session S019: Slow slip, Tectonic Tremor, and the Brittle-to-Ductile Transition Zone: What mechanisms control the diversity of slow and fast earthquakes?

The Unification Space implemented as a localist neural net: predictions and error-tolerance in a constraint-based parser.

PubMed

Vosse, Theo; Kempen, Gerard

2009-12-01

We introduce a novel computer implementation of the Unification-Space parser (Vosse and Kempen in Cognition 75:105-143, 2000) in the form of a localist neural network whose dynamics is based on interactive activation and inhibition. The wiring of the network is determined by Performance Grammar (Kempen and Harbusch in Verb constructions in German and Dutch. Benjamins, Amsterdam, 2003), a lexicalist formalism with feature unification as binding operation. While the network is processing input word strings incrementally, the evolving shape of parse trees is represented in the form of changing patterns of activation in nodes that code for syntactic properties of words and phrases, and for the grammatical functions they fulfill. The system is capable, at least qualitatively and rudimentarily, of simulating several important dynamic aspects of human syntactic parsing, including garden-path phenomena and reanalysis, effects of complexity (various types of clause embeddings), fault-tolerance in case of unification failures and unknown words, and predictive parsing (expectation-based analysis, surprisal effects). English is the target language of the parser described.

Dynamic Modelling of Fault Slip Induced by Stress Waves due to Stope Production Blasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sainoki, Atsushi; Mitri, Hani S.

2016-01-01

Seismic events can take place due to the interaction of stress waves induced by stope production blasts with faults located in close proximity to stopes. The occurrence of such seismic events needs to be controlled to ensure the safety of the mine operators and the underground mine workings. This paper presents the results of a dynamic numerical modelling study of fault slip induced by stress waves resulting from stope production blasts. First, the calibration of a numerical model having a single blast hole is performed using a charge weight scaling law to determine blast pressure and damping coefficient of the rockmass. Subsequently, a numerical model of a typical Canadian metal mine encompassing a fault parallel to a tabular ore deposit is constructed, and the simulation of stope extraction sequence is carried out with static analyses until the fault exhibits slip burst conditions. At that point, the dynamic analysis begins by applying the calibrated blast pressure to the stope wall in the form of velocities generated by the blast holes. It is shown from the results obtained from the dynamic analysis that the stress waves reflected on the fault create a drop of normal stresses acting on the fault, which produces a reduction in shear stresses while resulting in fault slip. The influence of blast sequences on the behaviour of the fault is also examined assuming several types of blast sequences. Comparison of the blast sequence simulation results indicates that performing simultaneous blasts symmetrically induces the same level of seismic events as separate blasts, although seismic energy is more rapidly released when blasts are performed symmetrically. On the other hand when nine blast holes are blasted simultaneously, a large seismic event is induced, compared to the other two blasts. It is concluded that the separate blasts might be employed under the adopted geological conditions. The developed methodology and procedure to arrive at an ideal blast sequence can be applied to other mines where faults are found in the vicinity of stopes.

Stacking fault energies and slip in nanocrystalline metals.

PubMed

Van Swygenhoven, H; Derlet, P M; Frøseth, A G

2004-06-01

The search for deformation mechanisms in nanocrystalline metals has profited from the use of molecular dynamics calculations. These simulations have revealed two possible mechanisms; grain boundary accommodation, and intragranular slip involving dislocation emission and absorption at grain boundaries. But the precise nature of the slip mechanism is the subject of considerable debate, and the limitations of the simulation technique need to be taken into consideration. Here we show, using molecular dynamics simulations, that the nature of slip in nanocrystalline metals cannot be described in terms of the absolute value of the stacking fault energy-a correct interpretation requires the generalized stacking fault energy curve, involving both stable and unstable stacking fault energies. The molecular dynamics technique does not at present allow for the determination of rate-limiting processes, so the use of our calculations in the interpretation of experiments has to be undertaken with care.

Interim reliability-evaluation program: analysis of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. Appendix B - system descriptions and fault trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1982-07-01

This report describes a risk study of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. The study is one of four such studies sponsored by the NRC Office of Research, Division of Risk Assessment, as part of its Interim Reliability Evaluation Program (IREP), Phase II. This report is contained in four volumes: a main report and three appendixes. Appendix B provides a description of Browns Ferry, Unit 1, plant systems and the failure evaluation of those systems as they apply to accidents at Browns Ferry. Information is presented concerning front-line system fault analysis; support system fault analysis; human error models andmore » probabilities; and generic control circuit analyses.« less

A domain decomposition approach to implementing fault slip in finite-element models of quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aagaard, Brad T.; Knepley, M.G.; Williams, C.A.

2013-01-01

We employ a domain decomposition approach with Lagrange multipliers to implement fault slip in a finite-element code, PyLith, for use in both quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation applications. This integrated approach to solving both quasi-static and dynamic simulations leverages common finite-element data structures and implementations of various boundary conditions, discretization schemes, and bulk and fault rheologies. We have developed a custom preconditioner for the Lagrange multiplier portion of the system of equations that provides excellent scalability with problem size compared to conventional additive Schwarz methods. We demonstrate application of this approach using benchmarks for both quasi-static viscoelastic deformation and dynamic spontaneous rupture propagation that verify the numerical implementation in PyLith.

Qualitative Fault Isolation of Hybrid Systems: A Structural Model Decomposition-Based Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bregon, Anibal; Daigle, Matthew; Roychoudhury, Indranil

2016-01-01

Quick and robust fault diagnosis is critical to ensuring safe operation of complex engineering systems. A large number of techniques are available to provide fault diagnosis in systems with continuous dynamics. However, many systems in aerospace and industrial environments are best represented as hybrid systems that consist of discrete behavioral modes, each with its own continuous dynamics. These hybrid dynamics make the on-line fault diagnosis task computationally more complex due to the large number of possible system modes and the existence of autonomous mode transitions. This paper presents a qualitative fault isolation framework for hybrid systems based on structural model decomposition. The fault isolation is performed by analyzing the qualitative information of the residual deviations. However, in hybrid systems this process becomes complex due to possible existence of observation delays, which can cause observed deviations to be inconsistent with the expected deviations for the current mode in the system. The great advantage of structural model decomposition is that (i) it allows to design residuals that respond to only a subset of the faults, and (ii) every time a mode change occurs, only a subset of the residuals will need to be reconfigured, thus reducing the complexity of the reasoning process for isolation purposes. To demonstrate and test the validity of our approach, we use an electric circuit simulation as the case study.

Fractional-order active fault-tolerant force-position controller design for the legged robots using saturated actuator with unknown bias and gain degradation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farid, Yousef; Majd, Vahid Johari; Ehsani-Seresht, Abbas

2018-05-01

In this paper, a novel fault accommodation strategy is proposed for the legged robots subject to the actuator faults including actuation bias and effective gain degradation as well as the actuator saturation. First, the combined dynamics of two coupled subsystems consisting of the dynamics of the legs subsystem and the body subsystem are developed. Then, the interaction of the robot with the environment is formulated as the contact force optimization problem with equality and inequality constraints. The desired force is obtained by a dynamic model. A robust super twisting fault estimator is proposed to precisely estimate the defective torque amplitude of the faulty actuator in finite time. Defining a novel fractional sliding surface, a fractional nonsingular terminal sliding mode control law is developed. Moreover, by introducing a suitable auxiliary system and using its state vector in the designed controller, the proposed fault-tolerant control (FTC) scheme guarantees the finite-time stability of the closed-loop control system. The robustness and finite-time convergence of the proposed control law is established using the Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, numerical simulations are performed on a quadruped robot to demonstrate the stable walking of the robot with and without actuator faults, and actuator saturation constraints, and the results are compared to results with an integer order fault-tolerant controller.

Risk Analysis Methods for Deepwater Port Oil Transfer Systems

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-06-01

This report deals with the risk analysis methodology for oil spills from the oil transfer systems in deepwater ports. Failure mode and effect analysis in combination with fault tree analysis are identified as the methods best suited for the assessmen...

State Tracking and Fault Diagnosis for Dynamic Systems Using Labeled Uncertainty Graph.

PubMed

Zhou, Gan; Feng, Wenquan; Zhao, Qi; Zhao, Hongbo

2015-11-05

Cyber-physical systems such as autonomous spacecraft, power plants and automotive systems become more vulnerable to unanticipated failures as their complexity increases. Accurate tracking of system dynamics and fault diagnosis are essential. This paper presents an efficient state estimation method for dynamic systems modeled as concurrent probabilistic automata. First, the Labeled Uncertainty Graph (LUG) method in the planning domain is introduced to describe the state tracking and fault diagnosis processes. Because the system model is probabilistic, the Monte Carlo technique is employed to sample the probability distribution of belief states. In addition, to address the sample impoverishment problem, an innovative look-ahead technique is proposed to recursively generate most likely belief states without exhaustively checking all possible successor modes. The overall algorithms incorporate two major steps: a roll-forward process that estimates system state and identifies faults, and a roll-backward process that analyzes possible system trajectories once the faults have been detected. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by applying it to a real world domain: the power supply control unit of a spacecraft.

Observer-based distributed adaptive fault-tolerant containment control of multi-agent systems with general linear dynamics.

PubMed

Ye, Dan; Chen, Mengmeng; Li, Kui

2017-11-01

In this paper, we consider the distributed containment control problem of multi-agent systems with actuator bias faults based on observer method. The objective is to drive the followers into the convex hull spanned by the dynamic leaders, where the input is unknown but bounded. By constructing an observer to estimate the states and bias faults, an effective distributed adaptive fault-tolerant controller is developed. Different from the traditional method, an auxiliary controller gain is designed to deal with the unknown inputs and bias faults together. Moreover, the coupling gain can be adjusted online through the adaptive mechanism without using the global information. Furthermore, the proposed control protocol can guarantee that all the signals of the closed-loop systems are bounded and all the followers converge to the convex hull with bounded residual errors formed by the dynamic leaders. Finally, a decoupled linearized longitudinal motion model of the F-18 aircraft is used to demonstrate the effectiveness. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inelastic off-fault response and three-dimensional dynamics of earthquake rupture on a strike-slip fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, D.J.; Ma, Shuo

2010-01-01

Large dynamic stress off the fault incurs an inelastic response and energy loss, which contributes to the fracture energy, limiting the rupture and slip velocity. Using an explicit finite element method, we model three-dimensional dynamic ruptures on a vertical strike-slip fault in a homogeneous half-space. The material is subjected to a pressure-dependent Drucker-Prager yield criterion. Initial stresses in the medium increase linearly with depth. Our simulations show that the inelastic response is confined narrowly to the fault at depth. There the inelastic strain is induced by large dynamic stresses associated with the rupture front that overcome the effect of the high confining pressure. The inelastic zone increases in size as it nears the surface. For material with low cohesion (~5 MPa) the inelastic zone broadens dramatically near the surface, forming a "flowerlike" structure. The near-surface inelastic strain occurs in both the extensional and the compressional regimes of the fault, induced by seismic waves ahead of the rupture front under a low confining pressure. When cohesion is large (~10 MPa), the inelastic strain is significantly reduced near the surface and confined mostly to depth. Cohesion, however, affects the inelastic zone at depth less significantly. The induced shear microcracks show diverse orientations near the surface, owing to the low confining pressure, but exhibit mostly horizontal slip at depth. The inferred rupture-induced anisotropy at depth has the fast wave direction along the direction of the maximum compressive stress.

Health Monitoring of a Satellite System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Robert H.; Ng, Hok K.; Speyer, Jason L.; Guntur, Lokeshkumar S.; Carpenter, Russell

2004-01-01

A health monitoring system based on analytical redundancy is developed for satellites on elliptical orbits. First, the dynamics of the satellite including orbital mechanics and attitude dynamics is modelled as a periodic system. Then, periodic fault detection filters are designed to detect and identify the satellite's actuator and sensor faults. In addition, parity equations are constructed using the algebraic redundant relationship among the actuators and sensors. Furthermore, a residual processor is designed to generate the probability of each of the actuator and sensor faults by using a sequential probability test. Finally, the health monitoring system, consisting of periodic fault detection lters, parity equations and residual processor, is evaluated in the simulation in the presence of disturbances and uncertainty.

A-Priori Rupture Models for Northern California Type-A Faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wills, Chris J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Field, Edward H.

2008-01-01

This appendix describes how a-priori rupture models were developed for the northern California Type-A faults. As described in the main body of this report, and in Appendix G, ?a-priori? models represent an initial estimate of the rate of single and multi-segment surface ruptures on each fault. Whether or not a given model is moment balanced (i.e., satisfies section slip-rate data) depends on assumptions made regarding the average slip on each segment in each rupture (which in turn depends on the chosen magnitude-area relationship). Therefore, for a given set of assumptions, or branch on the logic tree, the methodology of the present Working Group (WGCEP-2007) is to find a final model that is as close as possible to the a-priori model, in the least squares sense, but that also satisfies slip rate and perhaps other data. This is analogous the WGCEP- 2002 approach of effectively voting on the relative rate of each possible rupture, and then finding the closest moment-balance model (under a more limiting set of assumptions than adopted by the present WGCEP, as described in detail in Appendix G). The 2002 Working Group Report (WCCEP, 2003, referred to here as WGCEP-2002), created segmented earthquake rupture forecast models for all faults in the region, including some that had been designated as Type B faults in the NSHMP, 1996, and one that had not previously been considered. The 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps used the values from WGCEP-2002 for all the faults in the region, essentially treating all the listed faults as Type A faults. As discussed in Appendix A, the current WGCEP found that there are a number of faults with little or no data on slip-per-event, or dates of previous earthquakes. As a result, the WGCEP recommends that faults with minimal available earthquake recurrence data: the Greenville, Mount Diablo, San Gregorio, Monte Vista-Shannon and Concord-Green Valley be modeled as Type B faults to be consistent with similarly poorly-known faults statewide. As a result, the modified segmented models discussed here only concern the San Andreas, Hayward-Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras faults. Given the extensive level of effort given by the recent Bay-Area WGCEP-2002, our approach has been to adopt their final average models as our preferred a-prior models. We have modified the WGCEP-2002 models where necessary to match data that were not available or not used by that WGCEP and where the models needed by WGCEP-2007 for a uniform statewide model require different assumptions and/or logic-tree branch weights. In these cases we have made what are usually slight modifications to the WGCEP-2002 model. This Appendix presents the minor changes needed to accomodate updated information and model construction. We do not attempt to reproduce here the extensive documentation of data, model parameters and earthquake probablilities in the WG-2002 report.

Modeling Of Spontaneous Multiscale Roughening And Branching of Ruptures Propagating On A Slip-Weakening Frictional Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elbanna, A. E.

2013-12-01

Numerous field and experimental observations suggest that faults surfaces are rough at multiple scales and tend to produce a wide range of branch sizes ranging from micro-branching to large scale secondary faults. The development and evolution of fault roughness and branching is believed to play an important role in rupture dynamics and energy partitioning. Previous work by several groups has succeeded in determining conditions under which a main rupture may branch into a secondary fault. Recently, there great progress has been made in investigating rupture propagation on rough faults with and without off-fault plasticity. Nonetheless, in most of these models the heterogeneity, whether the roughness profile or the secondary faults orientation, was built into the system from the beginning and consequently the final outcome depends strongly on the initial conditions. Here we introduce an adaptive mesh technique for modeling mode-II crack propagation on slip weakening frictional interfaces. We use a Finite Element Framework with random mesh topology that adapts to crack dynamics through element splitting and sequential insertion of frictional interfaces dictated by the failure criterion. This allows the crack path to explore non-planar paths and develop the roughness profile that is most compatible with the dynamical constraints. It also enables crack branching at different scales. We quantify energy dissipation due to the roughening process and small scale branching. We compare the results of our model to a reference case for propagation on a planar fault. We show that the small scale processes of roughening and branching influence many characteristics of the rupture propagation including the energy partitioning, rupture speed and peak slip rates. We also estimate the fracture energy required for propagating a crack on a planar fault that will be required to produce comparable results. We anticipate that this modeling approach provides an attractive methodology that complements the current efforts in modeling off-fault plasticity and damage.

Dynamic rupture models of subduction zone earthquakes with off-fault plasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wollherr, S.; van Zelst, I.; Gabriel, A. A.; van Dinther, Y.; Madden, E. H.; Ulrich, T.

2017-12-01

Modeling tsunami-genesis based on purely elastic seafloor displacement typically underpredicts tsunami sizes. Dynamic rupture simulations allow to analyse whether plastic energy dissipation is a missing rheological component by capturing the complex interplay of the rupture front, emitted seismic waves and the free surface in the accretionary prism. Strike-slip models with off-fault plasticity suggest decreasing rupture speed and extensive plastic yielding mainly at shallow depths. For simplified subduction geometries inelastic deformation on the verge of Coulomb failure may enhance vertical displacement, which in turn favors the generation of large tsunamis (Ma, 2012). However, constraining appropriate initial conditions in terms of fault geometry, initial fault stress and strength remains challenging. Here, we present dynamic rupture models of subduction zones constrained by long-term seismo-thermo-mechanical modeling (STM) without any a priori assumption of regions of failure. The STM model provides self-consistent slab geometries, as well as stress and strength initial conditions which evolve in response to tectonic stresses, temperature, gravity, plasticity and pressure (van Dinther et al. 2013). Coseismic slip and coupled seismic wave propagation is modelled using the software package SeisSol (www.seissol.org), suited for complex fault zone structures and topography/bathymetry. SeisSol allows for local time-stepping, which drastically reduces the time-to-solution (Uphoff et al., 2017). This is particularly important in large-scale scenarios resolving small-scale features, such as the shallow angle between the megathrust fault and the free surface. Our dynamic rupture model uses a Drucker-Prager plastic yield criterion and accounts for thermal pressurization around the fault mimicking the effect of pore pressure changes due to frictional heating. We first analyze the influence of this rheology on rupture dynamics and tsunamigenic properties, i.e. seafloor displacement, in 2D. Finally, we use the same rheology in a large-scale 3D scenario of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake to shed light to the source process that caused the subsequent devastating tsunami.

Coseismic temporal changes of slip direction: the effect of absolute stress on dynamic rupture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guatteri, Mariagiovanna; Spudich, P.

1998-01-01

We investigate the dynamics of rupture at low-stress level. We show that one main difference between the dynamics of high- and low-stress events is the amount of coseismic temporal rake rotation occurring at given points on the fault. Curved striations on exposed fault surfaces and earthquake dislocation models derived from ground-motion inversion indicate that the slip direction may change with time at a point on the fault during dynamic rupture. We use a 3D boundary integral method to model temporal rake variations during dynamic rupture propagation assuming a slip-weakening friction law and isotropic friction. The points at which the slip rotates most are characterized by an initial shear stress direction substantially different from the average stress direction over the fault plane. We show that for a given value of stress drop, the level of initial shear stress (i.e., the fractional stress drop) determines the amount of rotation in slip direction. We infer that seismic events that show evidence of temporal rake rotations are characterized by a low initial shear-stress level with spatially variable direction on the fault (possibly due to changes in fault surface geometry) and an almost complete stress drop.Our models motivate a new interpretation of curved and cross-cutting striations and put new constraints on their analysis. The initial rake is in general collinear with the initial stress at the hypocentral zone, supporting the assumptions made in stress-tensor inversion from first-motion analysis. At other points on the fault, especially away from the hypocenter, the initial slip rake may not be collinear with the initial shear stress, contradicting a common assumption of structural geology. On the other hand, the later part of slip in our models is systematically more aligned with the average stress direction than the early slip. Our modeling suggests that the length of the straight part of curved striations is usually an upper bound of the slip-weakening distance if this parameter is uniform over the fault plane, and the direction of the late part of slip of curved striations should have more weight in the estimate of initial stress direction.

Frictional heating processes during laboratory earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubry, J.; Passelegue, F. X.; Deldicque, D.; Lahfid, A.; Girault, F.; Pinquier, Y.; Escartin, J.; Schubnel, A.

2017-12-01

Frictional heating during seismic slip plays a crucial role in the dynamic of earthquakes because it controls fault weakening. This study proposes (i) to image frictional heating combining an in-situ carbon thermometer and Raman microspectrometric mapping, (ii) to combine these observations with fault surface roughness and heat production, (iii) to estimate the mechanical energy dissipated during laboratory earthquakes. Laboratory earthquakes were performed in a triaxial oil loading press, at 45, 90 and 180 MPa of confining pressure by using saw-cut samples of Westerly granite. Initial topography of the fault surface was +/- 30 microns. We use a carbon layer as a local temperature tracer on the fault plane and a type K thermocouple to measure temperature approximately 6mm away from the fault surface. The thermocouple measures the bulk temperature of the fault plane while the in-situ carbon thermometer images the temperature production heterogeneity at the micro-scale. Raman microspectrometry on amorphous carbon patch allowed mapping the temperature heterogeneities on the fault surface after sliding overlaid over a few micrometers to the final fault roughness. The maximum temperature achieved during laboratory earthquakes remains high for all experiments but generally increases with the confining pressure. In addition, the melted surface of fault during seismic slip increases drastically with confining pressure. While melting is systematically observed, the strength drop increases with confining pressure. These results suggest that the dynamic friction coefficient is a function of the area of the fault melted during stick-slip. Using the thermocouple, we inverted the heat dissipated during each event. We show that for rough faults under low confining pressure, less than 20% of the total mechanical work is dissipated into heat. The ratio of frictional heating vs. total mechanical work decreases with cumulated slip (i.e. number of events), and decreases with increasing confining pressure and normal stress. Our results suggest that earthquakes are less dispersive under large normal stress. We linked this observation with fault roughness heterogeneity, which also decreases with applied normal stress. Keywords: Frictional heating, stick-slip, carbon, dynamic rupture, fault weakening.

Dynamic ruptures on faults of complex geometry: insights from numerical simulations, from large-scale curvature to small-scale fractal roughness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrich, T.; Gabriel, A. A.

2016-12-01

The geometry of faults is subject to a large degree of uncertainty. As buried structures being not directly observable, their complex shapes may only be inferred from surface traces, if available, or through geophysical methods, such as reflection seismology. As a consequence, most studies aiming at assessing the potential hazard of faults rely on idealized fault models, based on observable large-scale features. Yet, real faults are known to be wavy at all scales, their geometric features presenting similar statistical properties from the micro to the regional scale. The influence of roughness on the earthquake rupture process is currently a driving topic in the computational seismology community. From the numerical point of view, rough faults problems are challenging problems that require optimized codes able to run efficiently on high-performance computing infrastructure and simultaneously handle complex geometries. Physically, simulated ruptures hosted by rough faults appear to be much closer to source models inverted from observation in terms of complexity. Incorporating fault geometry on all scales may thus be crucial to model realistic earthquake source processes and to estimate more accurately seismic hazard. In this study, we use the software package SeisSol, based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme, to run our numerical simulations. SeisSol allows solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem and the wave propagation problem with high-order accuracy in space and time efficiently on large-scale machines. In this study, the influence of fault roughness on dynamic rupture style (e.g. onset of supershear transition, rupture front coherence, propagation of self-healing pulses, etc) at different length scales is investigated by analyzing ruptures on faults of varying roughness spectral content. In particular, we investigate the existence of a minimum roughness length scale in terms of rupture inherent length scales below which the rupture ceases to be sensible. Finally, the effect of fault geometry on ground-motions, in the near-field, is considered. Our simulations feature a classical linear slip weakening on the fault and a viscoplastic constitutive model off the fault. The benefits of using a more elaborate fast velocity-weakening friction law will also be considered.

Macroscopic Source Properties from Dynamic Rupture Styles in Plastic Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, A.; Ampuero, J. P.; Dalguer, L. A.; Mai, P. M.

2011-12-01

High stress concentrations at earthquake rupture fronts may generate an inelastic off-fault response at the rupture tip, leading to increased energy absorption in the damage zone. Furthermore, the induced asymmetric plastic strain field in in-plane rupture modes may produce bimaterial interfaces that can increase radiation efficiency and reduce frictional dissipation. Off-fault inelasticity thus plays an important role for realistic predictions of near-fault ground motion. Guided by our previous studies in the 2D elastic case, we perform rupture dynamics simulations including rate-and-state friction and off-fault plasticity to investigate the effects on the rupture properties. We quantitatively analyze macroscopic source properties for different rupture styles, ranging from cracks to pulses and subshear to supershear ruptures, and their transitional mechanisms. The energy dissipation due to off-fault inelasticity modifies the conditions to obtain each rupture style and alters macroscopic source properties. We examine apparent fracture energy, rupture and healing front speed, peak slip and peak slip velocity, dynamic stress drop and size of the process and plastic zones, slip and plastic seismic moment, and their connection to ground motion. This presentation focuses on the effects of rupture style and off-fault plasticity on the resulting ground motion patterns, especially on characteristic slip velocity function signatures and resulting seismic moments. We aim at developing scaling rules for equivalent elastic models, as function of background stress and frictional parameters, that may lead to improved "pseudo-dynamic" source parameterizations for ground-motion calculation. Moreover, our simulations provide quantitative relations between off-fault energy dissipation and macroscopic source properties. These relations might provide a self-consistent theoretical framework for the study of the earthquake energy balance based on observable earthquake source parameters.

Development of Envelope Curves for Predicting Void Dimensions from Overturned Trees

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-01

transport due to tree root throw: integrating tree population dynamics, wildfire, and geomorphic response (Gallaway et al. 2009...Johnson. 2009. Sediment transport due to tree root throw: Integrating tree population dynamics, wildfire and geomorphic response. Earth Surface Processes...environment, but not vegetation (Peterson and Leach 2008) ............................................................ 17 4.7 Pedologic and geomorphic impacts

Methodology for Designing Fault-Protection Software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barltrop, Kevin; Levison, Jeffrey; Kan, Edwin

2006-01-01

A document describes a methodology for designing fault-protection (FP) software for autonomous spacecraft. The methodology embodies and extends established engineering practices in the technical discipline of Fault Detection, Diagnosis, Mitigation, and Recovery; and has been successfully implemented in the Deep Impact Spacecraft, a NASA Discovery mission. Based on established concepts of Fault Monitors and Responses, this FP methodology extends the notion of Opinion, Symptom, Alarm (aka Fault), and Response with numerous new notions, sub-notions, software constructs, and logic and timing gates. For example, Monitor generates a RawOpinion, which graduates into Opinion, categorized into no-opinion, acceptable, or unacceptable opinion. RaiseSymptom, ForceSymptom, and ClearSymptom govern the establishment and then mapping to an Alarm (aka Fault). Local Response is distinguished from FP System Response. A 1-to-n and n-to- 1 mapping is established among Monitors, Symptoms, and Responses. Responses are categorized by device versus by function. Responses operate in tiers, where the early tiers attempt to resolve the Fault in a localized step-by-step fashion, relegating more system-level response to later tier(s). Recovery actions are gated by epoch recovery timing, enabling strategy, urgency, MaxRetry gate, hardware availability, hazardous versus ordinary fault, and many other priority gates. This methodology is systematic, logical, and uses multiple linked tables, parameter files, and recovery command sequences. The credibility of the FP design is proven via a fault-tree analysis "top-down" approach, and a functional fault-mode-effects-and-analysis via "bottoms-up" approach. Via this process, the mitigation and recovery strategy(s) per Fault Containment Region scope (width versus depth) the FP architecture.

Experimental Modeling of Dynamic Shallow Dip-Slip Faulting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uenishi, K.

2010-12-01

In our earlier study (AGU 2005, SSJ 2005, JPGU 2006), using a finite difference technique, we have conducted some numerical simulations related to the source dynamics of shallow dip-slip earthquakes, and suggested the possibility of the existence of corner waves, i.e., shear waves that carry concentrated kinematic energy and generate extremely strong particle motions on the hanging wall of a nonvertical fault. In the numerical models, a dip-slip fault is located in a two-dimensional, monolithic linear elastic half space, and the fault plane dips either vertically or 45 degrees. We have investigated the seismic wave field radiated by crack-like rupture of this straight fault. If the fault rupture, initiated at depth, arrests just below or reaches the free surface, four Rayleigh-type pulses are generated: two propagating along the free surface into the opposite directions to the far field, the other two moving back along the ruptured fault surface (interface) downwards into depth. These downward interface pulses may largely control the stopping phase of the dynamic rupture, and in the case the fault plane is inclined, on the hanging wall the interface pulse and the outward-moving Rayleigh surface pulse interact with each other and the corner wave is induced. On the footwall, the ground motion is dominated simply by the weaker Rayleigh pulse propagating along the free surface because of much smaller interaction between this Rayleigh and the interface pulse. The generation of the downward interface pulses and corner wave may play a crucial role in understanding the effects of the geometrical asymmetry on the strong motion induced by shallow dip-slip faulting, but it has not been well recognized so far, partly because those waves are not expected for a fault that is located and ruptures only at depth. However, the seismological recordings of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, the 2004 Niigata-ken Chuetsu, Japan, earthquakes as well as a more recent one in Iwate-Miyagi Inland, Japan in 2008, for example, seem to support the need for careful mechanical consideration. In this contribution, utilizing two-dimensional dynamic photoelasticity in conjunction with high speed digital cinematography, we try to perform "fully controlled" laboratory experiments of dip-slip faulting and observe the propagation of interface pulses and corner waves mentioned above. A birefringent material containing a (model) dip-slip fault plane is prepared, and rupture is initiated in that material using an Nd:YAG laser system, and the evolution of time-dependent isochromatic fringe patterns (contours of maximum in-plane shear stress) associated with the dynamic process of shallow dip-slip faulting is recorded. Use of Nd:YAG laser pulses, instead of ignition of explosives, for rupture initiation may enhance the safety of laboratory fracture experiments and enable us to evaluate the energy entering the material (and hence the energy balance in the system) more precisely, possibly in a more controlled way.

Earthquake nucleation in a stochastic fault model of globally coupled units with interaction delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasović, Nebojša; Kostić, Srđan; Franović, Igor; Todorović, Kristina

2016-09-01

In present paper we analyze dynamics of fault motion by considering delayed interaction of 100 all-to-all coupled blocks with rate-dependent friction law in presence of random seismic noise. Such a model sufficiently well describes a real fault motion, whose prevailing stochastic nature is implied by surrogate data analysis of available GPS measurements of active fault movement. Interaction of blocks in an analyzed model is studied as a function of time delay, observed both for dynamics of individual faults and phenomenological models. Analyzed model is examined as a system of all-to-all coupled blocks according to typical assumption of compound faults as complex of globally coupled segments. We apply numerical methods to show that there are local bifurcations from equilibrium state to periodic oscillations, with an occurrence of irregular aperiodic behavior when initial conditions are set away from the equilibrium point. Such a behavior indicates a possible existence of a bi-stable dynamical regime, due to effect of the introduced seismic noise or the existence of global attractor. The latter assumption is additionally confirmed by analyzing the corresponding mean-field approximated model. In this bi-stable regime, distribution of event magnitudes follows Gutenberg-Richter power law with satisfying statistical accuracy, including the b-value within the real observed range.

Optimal Placement of Dynamic Var Sources by Using Empirical Controllability Covariance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qi, Junjian; Huang, Weihong; Sun, Kai

In this paper, the empirical controllability covariance (ECC), which is calculated around the considered operating condition of a power system, is applied to quantify the degree of controllability of system voltages under specific dynamic var source locations. An optimal dynamic var source placement method addressing fault-induced delayed voltage recovery (FIDVR) issues is further formulated as an optimization problem that maximizes the determinant of ECC. The optimization problem is effectively solved by the NOMAD solver, which implements the mesh adaptive direct search algorithm. The proposed method is tested on an NPCC 140-bus system and the results show that the proposed methodmore » with fault specified ECC can solve the FIDVR issue caused by the most severe contingency with fewer dynamic var sources than the voltage sensitivity index (VSI)-based method. The proposed method with fault unspecified ECC does not depend on the settings of the contingency and can address more FIDVR issues than the VSI method when placing the same number of SVCs under different fault durations. It is also shown that the proposed method can help mitigate voltage collapse.« less

Model-Based Diagnostics for Propellant Loading Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew John; Foygel, Michael; Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.

2011-01-01

The loading of spacecraft propellants is a complex, risky operation. Therefore, diagnostic solutions are necessary to quickly identify when a fault occurs, so that recovery actions can be taken or an abort procedure can be initiated. Model-based diagnosis solutions, established using an in-depth analysis and understanding of the underlying physical processes, offer the advanced capability to quickly detect and isolate faults, identify their severity, and predict their effects on system performance. We develop a physics-based model of a cryogenic propellant loading system, which describes the complex dynamics of liquid hydrogen filling from a storage tank to an external vehicle tank, as well as the influence of different faults on this process. The model takes into account the main physical processes such as highly nonequilibrium condensation and evaporation of the hydrogen vapor, pressurization, and also the dynamics of liquid hydrogen and vapor flows inside the system in the presence of helium gas. Since the model incorporates multiple faults in the system, it provides a suitable framework for model-based diagnostics and prognostics algorithms. Using this model, we analyze the effects of faults on the system, derive symbolic fault signatures for the purposes of fault isolation, and perform fault identification using a particle filter approach. We demonstrate the detection, isolation, and identification of a number of faults using simulation-based experiments.

Modeling and Fault Simulation of Propellant Filling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Yunchun; Liu, Weidong; Hou, Xiaobo

2012-05-01

Propellant filling system is one of the key ground plants in launching site of rocket that use liquid propellant. There is an urgent demand for ensuring and improving its reliability and safety, and there is no doubt that Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) is a good approach to meet it. Driven by the request to get more fault information for FMEA, and because of the high expense of propellant filling, in this paper, the working process of the propellant filling system in fault condition was studied by simulating based on AMESim. Firstly, based on analyzing its structure and function, the filling system was modular decomposed, and the mathematic models of every module were given, based on which the whole filling system was modeled in AMESim. Secondly, a general method of fault injecting into dynamic system was proposed, and as an example, two typical faults - leakage and blockage - were injected into the model of filling system, based on which one can get two fault models in AMESim. After that, fault simulation was processed and the dynamic characteristics of several key parameters were analyzed under fault conditions. The results show that the model can simulate effectively the two faults, and can be used to provide guidance for the filling system maintain and amelioration.

Nitsche Extended Finite Element Methods for Earthquake Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coon, Ethan T.

Modeling earthquakes and geologically short-time-scale events on fault networks is a difficult problem with important implications for human safety and design. These problems demonstrate a. rich physical behavior, in which distributed loading localizes both spatially and temporally into earthquakes on fault systems. This localization is governed by two aspects: friction and fault geometry. Computationally, these problems provide a stern challenge for modelers --- static and dynamic equations must be solved on domains with discontinuities on complex fault systems, and frictional boundary conditions must be applied on these discontinuities. The most difficult aspect of modeling physics on complicated domains is the mesh. Most numerical methods involve meshing the geometry; nodes are placed on the discontinuities, and edges are chosen to coincide with faults. The resulting mesh is highly unstructured, making the derivation of finite difference discretizations difficult. Therefore, most models use the finite element method. Standard finite element methods place requirements on the mesh for the sake of stability, accuracy, and efficiency. The formation of a mesh which both conforms to fault geometry and satisfies these requirements is an open problem, especially for three dimensional, physically realistic fault. geometries. In addition, if the fault system evolves over the course of a dynamic simulation (i.e. in the case of growing cracks or breaking new faults), the geometry must he re-meshed at each time step. This can be expensive computationally. The fault-conforming approach is undesirable when complicated meshes are required, and impossible to implement when the geometry is evolving. Therefore, meshless and hybrid finite element methods that handle discontinuities without placing them on element boundaries are a desirable and natural way to discretize these problems. Several such methods are being actively developed for use in engineering mechanics involving crack propagation and material failure. While some theory and application of these methods exist, implementations for the simulation of networks of many cracks have not yet been considered. For my thesis, I implement and extend one such method, the eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM), for use in static and dynamic models of fault networks. Once this machinery is developed, it is applied to open questions regarding the behavior of networks of faults, including questions of distributed deformation in fault systems and ensembles of magnitude, location, and frequency in repeat ruptures. The theory of XFEM is augmented to allow for solution of problems with alternating regimes of static solves for elastic stress conditions and short, dynamic earthquakes on networks of faults. This is accomplished using Nitsche's approach for implementing boundary conditions. Finally, an optimization problem is developed to determine tractions along the fault, enabling the calculation of frictional constraints and the rupture front. This method is verified via a series of static, quasistatic, and dynamic problems. Armed with this technique, we look at several problems regarding geometry within the earthquake cycle in which geometry is crucial. We first look at quasistatic simulations on a community fault model of Southern California, and model slip distribution across that system. We find the distribution of deformation across faults compares reasonably well with slip rates across the region, as constrained by geologic data. We find geometry can provide constraints for friction, and consider the minimization of shear strain across the zone as a function of friction and plate loading direction, and infer bounds on fault strength in the region. Then we consider the repeated rupture problem, modeling the full earthquake cycle over the course of many events on several fault geometries. In this work, we look at distributions of events, studying the effect of geometry on statistical metrics of event ensembles. Finally, this thesis is a proof of concept for the XFEM on earthquake cycle models on fault systems. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the method, and identify places for future improvement. We discuss the feasibility of the method's use in three dimensions, and find the method to be a strong candidate for future crustal deformation simulations.

Premonitory acoustic emissions and stick-slip in natural and smooth-faulted Westerly granite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, B.D.; Young, R.P.; Lockner, David A.

2009-01-01

A stick-slip event was induced in a cylindrical sample of Westerly granite containing a preexisting natural fault by loading at constant confining pressure of 150 MPa. Continuously recorded acoustic emission (AE) data and computer tomography (CT)-generated images of the fault plane were combined to provide a detailed examination of microscale processes operating on the fault. The dynamic stick-slip event, considered to be a laboratory analog of an earthquake, generated an ultrasonic signal that was recorded as a large-amplitude AE event. First arrivals of this event were inverted to determine the nucleation site of slip, which is associated with a geometric asperity on the fault surface. CT images and AE locations suggest that a variety of asperities existed in the sample because of the intersection of branch or splay faults with the main fault. This experiment is compared with a stick-slip experiment on a sample prepared with a smooth, artificial saw-cut fault surface. Nearly a thousand times more AE were observed for the natural fault, which has a higher friction coefficient (0.78 compared to 0.53) and larger shear stress drop (140 compared to 68 MPa). However at the measured resolution, the ultrasonic signal emitted during slip initiation does not vary significantly between the two experiments, suggesting a similar dynamic rupture process. We propose that the natural faulted sample under triaxial compression provides a good laboratory analogue for a field-scale fault system in terms of the presence of asperities, fault surface heterogeneity, and interaction of branching faults. ?? 2009.

Automated Generation of Fault Management Artifacts from a Simple System Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kennedy, Andrew K.; Day, John C.

2013-01-01

Our understanding of off-nominal behavior - failure modes and fault propagation - in complex systems is often based purely on engineering intuition; specific cases are assessed in an ad hoc fashion as a (fallible) fault management engineer sees fit. This work is an attempt to provide a more rigorous approach to this understanding and assessment by automating the creation of a fault management artifact, the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) through querying a representation of the system in a SysML model. This work builds off the previous development of an off-nominal behavior model for the upcoming Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. We further developed the previous system model to more fully incorporate the ideas of State Analysis, and it was restructured in an organizational hierarchy that models the system as layers of control systems while also incorporating the concept of "design authority". We present software that was developed to traverse the elements and relationships in this model to automatically construct an FMEA spreadsheet. We further discuss extending this model to automatically generate other typical fault management artifacts, such as Fault Trees, to efficiently portray system behavior, and depend less on the intuition of fault management engineers to ensure complete examination of off-nominal behavior.

Naive Bayes Bearing Fault Diagnosis Based on Enhanced Independence of Data

PubMed Central

Zhang, Nannan; Wu, Lifeng; Yang, Jing; Guan, Yong

2018-01-01

The bearing is the key component of rotating machinery, and its performance directly determines the reliability and safety of the system. Data-based bearing fault diagnosis has become a research hotspot. Naive Bayes (NB), which is based on independent presumption, is widely used in fault diagnosis. However, the bearing data are not completely independent, which reduces the performance of NB algorithms. In order to solve this problem, we propose a NB bearing fault diagnosis method based on enhanced independence of data. The method deals with data vector from two aspects: the attribute feature and the sample dimension. After processing, the classification limitation of NB is reduced by the independence hypothesis. First, we extract the statistical characteristics of the original signal of the bearings effectively. Then, the Decision Tree algorithm is used to select the important features of the time domain signal, and the low correlation features is selected. Next, the Selective Support Vector Machine (SSVM) is used to prune the dimension data and remove redundant vectors. Finally, we use NB to diagnose the fault with the low correlation data. The experimental results show that the independent enhancement of data is effective for bearing fault diagnosis. PMID:29401730

A fault diagnosis scheme for rolling bearing based on local mean decomposition and improved multiscale fuzzy entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yongbo; Xu, Minqiang; Wang, Rixin; Huang, Wenhu

2016-01-01

This paper presents a new rolling bearing fault diagnosis method based on local mean decomposition (LMD), improved multiscale fuzzy entropy (IMFE), Laplacian score (LS) and improved support vector machine based binary tree (ISVM-BT). When the fault occurs in rolling bearings, the measured vibration signal is a multi-component amplitude-modulated and frequency-modulated (AM-FM) signal. LMD, a new self-adaptive time-frequency analysis method can decompose any complicated signal into a series of product functions (PFs), each of which is exactly a mono-component AM-FM signal. Hence, LMD is introduced to preprocess the vibration signal. Furthermore, IMFE that is designed to avoid the inaccurate estimation of fuzzy entropy can be utilized to quantify the complexity and self-similarity of time series for a range of scales based on fuzzy entropy. Besides, the LS approach is introduced to refine the fault features by sorting the scale factors. Subsequently, the obtained features are fed into the multi-fault classifier ISVM-BT to automatically fulfill the fault pattern identifications. The experimental results validate the effectiveness of the methodology and demonstrate that proposed algorithm can be applied to recognize the different categories and severities of rolling bearings.

Human Factors Risk Analyses of a Doffing Protocol for Ebola-Level Personal Protective Equipment: Mapping Errors to Contamination.

PubMed

Mumma, Joel M; Durso, Francis T; Ferguson, Ashley N; Gipson, Christina L; Casanova, Lisa; Erukunuakpor, Kimberly; Kraft, Colleen S; Walsh, Victoria L; Zimring, Craig; DuBose, Jennifer; Jacob, Jesse T

2018-03-05

Doffing protocols for personal protective equipment (PPE) are critical for keeping healthcare workers (HCWs) safe during care of patients with Ebola virus disease. We assessed the relationship between errors and self-contamination during doffing. Eleven HCWs experienced with doffing Ebola-level PPE participated in simulations in which HCWs donned PPE marked with surrogate viruses (ɸ6 and MS2), completed a clinical task, and were assessed for contamination after doffing. Simulations were video recorded, and a failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analyses were performed to identify errors during doffing, quantify their risk (risk index), and predict contamination data. Fifty-one types of errors were identified, many having the potential to spread contamination. Hand hygiene and removing the powered air purifying respirator (PAPR) hood had the highest total risk indexes (111 and 70, respectively) and number of types of errors (9 and 13, respectively). ɸ6 was detected on 10% of scrubs and the fault tree predicted a 10.4% contamination rate, likely occurring when the PAPR hood inadvertently contacted scrubs during removal. MS2 was detected on 10% of hands, 20% of scrubs, and 70% of inner gloves and the predicted rates were 7.3%, 19.4%, 73.4%, respectively. Fault trees for MS2 and ɸ6 contamination suggested similar pathways. Ebola-level PPE can both protect and put HCWs at risk for self-contamination throughout the doffing process, even among experienced HCWs doffing with a trained observer. Human factors methodologies can identify error-prone steps, delineate the relationship between errors and self-contamination, and suggest remediation strategies.

Reliability analysis of a wastewater treatment plant using fault tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.

PubMed

Taheriyoun, Masoud; Moradinejad, Saber

2015-01-01

The reliability of a wastewater treatment plant is a critical issue when the effluent is reused or discharged to water resources. Main factors affecting the performance of the wastewater treatment plant are the variation of the influent, inherent variability in the treatment processes, deficiencies in design, mechanical equipment, and operational failures. Thus, meeting the established reuse/discharge criteria requires assessment of plant reliability. Among many techniques developed in system reliability analysis, fault tree analysis (FTA) is one of the popular and efficient methods. FTA is a top down, deductive failure analysis in which an undesired state of a system is analyzed. In this study, the problem of reliability was studied on Tehran West Town wastewater treatment plant. This plant is a conventional activated sludge process, and the effluent is reused in landscape irrigation. The fault tree diagram was established with the violation of allowable effluent BOD as the top event in the diagram, and the deficiencies of the system were identified based on the developed model. Some basic events are operator's mistake, physical damage, and design problems. The analytical method is minimal cut sets (based on numerical probability) and Monte Carlo simulation. Basic event probabilities were calculated according to available data and experts' opinions. The results showed that human factors, especially human error had a great effect on top event occurrence. The mechanical, climate, and sewer system factors were in subsequent tier. Literature shows applying FTA has been seldom used in the past wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) risk analysis studies. Thus, the developed FTA model in this study considerably improves the insight into causal failure analysis of a WWTP. It provides an efficient tool for WWTP operators and decision makers to achieve the standard limits in wastewater reuse and discharge to the environment.

Fault tree analysis for exposure to refrigerants used for automotive air conditioning in the United States.

PubMed

Jetter, J J; Forte, R; Rubenstein, R

2001-02-01

A fault tree analysis was used to estimate the number of refrigerant exposures of automotive service technicians and vehicle occupants in the United States. Exposures of service technicians can occur when service equipment or automotive air-conditioning systems leak during servicing. The number of refrigerant exposures of service technicians was estimated to be 135,000 per year. Exposures of vehicle occupants can occur when refrigerant enters passenger compartments due to sudden leaks in air-conditioning systems, leaks following servicing, or leaks caused by collisions. The total number of exposures of vehicle occupants was estimated to be 3,600 per year. The largest number of exposures of vehicle occupants was estimated for leaks caused by collisions, and the second largest number of exposures was estimated for leaks following servicing. Estimates used in the fault tree analysis were based on a survey of automotive air-conditioning service shops, the best available data from the literature, and the engineering judgement of the authors and expert reviewers from the Society of Automotive Engineers Interior Climate Control Standards Committee. Exposure concentrations and durations were estimated and compared with toxicity data for refrigerants currently used in automotive air conditioners. Uncertainty was high for the estimated numbers of exposures, exposure concentrations, and exposure durations. Uncertainty could be reduced in the future by conducting more extensive surveys, measurements of refrigerant concentrations, and exposure monitoring. Nevertheless, the analysis indicated that the risk of exposure of service technicians and vehicle occupants is significant, and it is recommended that no refrigerant that is substantially more toxic than currently available substitutes be accepted for use in vehicle air-conditioning systems, absent a means of mitigating exposure.

Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.

PubMed

Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof

2009-04-01

Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

GIS-based groundwater potential mapping using boosted regression tree, classification and regression tree, and random forest machine learning models in Iran.

PubMed

Naghibi, Seyed Amir; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Dixon, Barnali

2016-01-01

Groundwater is considered one of the most valuable fresh water resources. The main objective of this study was to produce groundwater spring potential maps in the Koohrang Watershed, Chaharmahal-e-Bakhtiari Province, Iran, using three machine learning models: boosted regression tree (BRT), classification and regression tree (CART), and random forest (RF). Thirteen hydrological-geological-physiographical (HGP) factors that influence locations of springs were considered in this research. These factors include slope degree, slope aspect, altitude, topographic wetness index (TWI), slope length (LS), plan curvature, profile curvature, distance to rivers, distance to faults, lithology, land use, drainage density, and fault density. Subsequently, groundwater spring potential was modeled and mapped using CART, RF, and BRT algorithms. The predicted results from the three models were validated using the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC). From 864 springs identified, 605 (≈70 %) locations were used for the spring potential mapping, while the remaining 259 (≈30 %) springs were used for the model validation. The area under the curve (AUC) for the BRT model was calculated as 0.8103 and for CART and RF the AUC were 0.7870 and 0.7119, respectively. Therefore, it was concluded that the BRT model produced the best prediction results while predicting locations of springs followed by CART and RF models, respectively. Geospatially integrated BRT, CART, and RF methods proved to be useful in generating the spring potential map (SPM) with reasonable accuracy.

Fault diagnosis of rolling bearings based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis and Mahalanobis distance criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Jinshan; Chen, Qian

2013-07-01

Vibration data of faulty rolling bearings are usually nonstationary and nonlinear, and contain fairly weak fault features. As a result, feature extraction of rolling bearing fault data is always an intractable problem and has attracted considerable attention for a long time. This paper introduces multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to analyze bearing vibration data and proposes a novel method for fault diagnosis of rolling bearings based on MF-DFA and Mahalanobis distance criterion (MDC). MF-DFA, an extension of monofractal DFA, is a powerful tool for uncovering the nonlinear dynamical characteristics buried in nonstationary time series and can capture minor changes of complex system conditions. To begin with, by MF-DFA, multifractality of bearing fault data was quantified with the generalized Hurst exponent, the scaling exponent and the multifractal spectrum. Consequently, controlled by essentially different dynamical mechanisms, the multifractality of four heterogeneous bearing fault data is significantly different; by contrast, controlled by slightly different dynamical mechanisms, the multifractality of homogeneous bearing fault data with different fault diameters is significantly or slightly different depending on different types of bearing faults. Therefore, the multifractal spectrum, as a set of parameters describing multifractality of time series, can be employed to characterize different types and severity of bearing faults. Subsequently, five characteristic parameters sensitive to changes of bearing fault conditions were extracted from the multifractal spectrum and utilized to construct fault features of bearing fault data. Moreover, Hilbert transform based envelope analysis, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and wavelet transform (WT) were utilized to study the same bearing fault data. Also, the kurtosis and the peak levels of the EMD or the WT component corresponding to the bearing tones in the frequency domain were carefully checked and used as the bearing fault features. Next, MDC was used to classify the bearing fault features extracted by EMD, WT and MF-DFA in the time domain and assess the abilities of the three methods to extract fault features from bearing fault data. The results show that MF-DFA seems to outperform each of envelope analysis, statistical parameters, EMD and WT in feature extraction of bearing fault data and then the proposed method in this paper delivers satisfactory performances in distinguishing different types and severity of bearing faults. Furthermore, to further ascertain the nature causing the multifractality of bearing vibration data, the generalized Hurst exponents of the original bearing vibration data were compared with those of the shuffled and the surrogated data. Consequently, the long-range correlations for small and large fluctuations of data seem to be chiefly responsible for the multifractality of bearing vibration data.

The 2013, Mw 7.7 Balochistan earthquake, energetic strike-slip reactivation of a thrust fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avouac, Jean-Philippe; Ayoub, Francois; Wei, Shengji; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Meng, Lingsen; Leprince, Sebastien; Jolivet, Romain; Duputel, Zacharie; Helmberger, Don

2014-04-01

We analyse the Mw 7.7 Balochistan earthquake of 09/24/2013 based on ground surface deformation measured from sub-pixel correlation of Landsat-8 images, combined with back-projection and finite source modeling of teleseismic waveforms. The earthquake nucleated south of the Chaman strike-slip fault and propagated southwestward along the Hoshab fault at the front of the Kech Band. The rupture was mostly unilateral, propagated at 3 km/s on average and produced a 200 km surface fault trace with purely strike-slip displacement peaking to 10 m and averaging around 6 m. The finite source model shows that slip was maximum near the surface. Although the Hoshab fault is dipping by 45° to the North, in accordance with its origin as a thrust fault within the Makran accretionary prism, slip was nearly purely strike-slip during that earthquake. Large seismic slip on such a non-optimally oriented fault was enhanced possibly due to the influence of the free surface on dynamic stresses or to particular properties of the fault zone allowing for strong dynamic weakening. Strike-slip faulting on thrust fault within the eastern Makran is interpreted as due to eastward extrusion of the accretionary prism as it bulges out over the Indian plate. Portions of the Makran megathrust, some thrust faults in the Kirthar range and strike-slip faults within the Chaman fault system have been brought closer to failure by this earthquake. Aftershocks cluster within the Chaman fault system north of the epicenter, opposite to the direction of rupture propagation. By contrast, few aftershocks were detected in the area of maximum moment release. In this example, aftershocks cannot be used to infer earthquake characteristics.

A Controllable Earthquake Rupture Experiment on the Homestake Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Germanovich, L. N.; Murdoch, L. C.; Garagash, D.; Reches, Z.; Martel, S. J.; Gwaba, D.; Elsworth, D.; Lowell, R. P.; Onstott, T. C.

2010-12-01

Fault-slip is typically simulated in the laboratory at the cm-to-dm scale. Laboratory results are then up-scaled by orders of magnitude to understand faulting and earthquakes processes. We suggest an experimental approach to reactivate faults in-situ at scales ~10-100 m using thermal techniques and fluid injection to modify in situ stresses and the fault strength to the point where the rock fails. Mines where the modified in-situ stresses are sufficient to drive faulting, present an opportunity to conduct such experiments. During our recent field work in the former Homestake gold mine in the northern Black Hills, South Dakota, we found a large fault present on multiple mine levels. The fault is subparallel to the local foliation in the Poorman formation, a Proterozoic metamorphic rock deformed into regional-scale folds with axes plunging ~40° to the SSE. The fault extends at least 1.5 km along strike and dip, with a center ~1.5 km deep. It strikes ~320-340° N, dips ~45-70° NE, and is recognized by a ~0.3-0.5 m thick distinct gouge that contains crushed host rock and black material that appears to be graphite. Although we could not find clear evidence for fault displacement, secondary features suggest that it is a normal fault. The size and distinct structure of this fault make it a promising target for in-situ experimentation of fault strength, hydrological properties, and slip nucleation processes. Most earthquakes are thought to be the result of unstable slip on existing faults, Activation of the Homestake fault in response to the controlled fluid injection and thermally changing background stresses is likely to be localized on a crack-like patch. Slow patch propagation, moderated by the injection rate and the rate of change of the background stresses, may become unstable, leading to the nucleation of a small earthquake (dynamic) rupture. This controlled instability is intimately related to the dependence of the fault strength on the slip process and has been analyzed for the Homestake fault conditions. Scale analyses indicate that this transition occurs for the nucleation patch size ~1 m. This represents a fundamental limitation for laboratory experiments, where the induced dynamic patch could be tractable, and necessitates larger scale field tests ~10-100 m. The ongoing dewatering is expected to affect displacements in the fault vicinity. This poroelastic effect can be used to better characterize the fault. Nucleation, propagation, and arrest of dynamic fault slip is governed by fluid overpressure source, diffusion, and the magnitude of the background loading in relation to the peak and residual strength in the fault zone at the ambient pore pressure level. More information on in-situ stresses than currently available is required to evaluate the fault state. Yet, initial modeling suggests that a suitable place for such an experiment is where the Homestake fault intersects the 4850-ft mine level or at greater depths.

Cumulative co-seismic fault damage and feedbacks on earthquake rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, T. M.; Aben, F. M.; Ostermeijer, G.; Rockwell, T. K.; Doan, M. L.

2017-12-01

The importance of the damage zone in the faulting and earthquake process is widely recognized, but our understanding of how damage zones are created, what their properties are, and how they feed back into the seismic cycle, is remarkably poorly known. Firstly, damaged rocks have reduced elastic moduli, cohesion and yield strength, which can cause attenuation and potentially non-linear wave propagation effects during ruptures. Secondly, damaged fault rocks are generally more permeable than intact rocks, and hence play a key role in the migration of fluids in and around fault zones over the seismic cycle. Finally, the dynamic generation of damage as the earthquake propagates can itself influence the dynamics of rupture propagation, by increasing the amount of energy dissipation, decreasing the rupture velocity, modifying the size of the earthquake, changing the efficiency of weakening mechanisms such as thermal pressurisation of pore fluids, and even generating seismic waves itself . All of these effects imply that a feedback exists between the damage imparted immediately after rupture propagation, at the early stages of fault slip, and the effects of that damage on subsequent ruptures dynamics. In recent years, much debate has been sparked by the identification of so-called `pulverized rocks' described on various crustal-scale faults, a type of intensely damaged fault rock which has undergone minimal shear strain, and the occurrence of which has been linked to damage induced by transient high strain-rate stress perturbations during earthquake rupture. Damage induced by such transient stresses, whether compressional or tensional, likely constitute heterogeneous modulations of the remote stresses that will impart significant changes on the strength, elastic and fluid flow properties of a fault zone immediately after rupture propagation, at the early stage of fault slip. In this contribution, we will demonstrate laboratory and field examples of two dynamic mechanisms that have been proposed for the generation of pulverized rocks; (i) compressive loading by high-frequency stress pulses due to the radiation of seismic waves and (ii) explosive dilation in tension in rocks containing pressurized pore fluids.

Improved fault ride through capability of DFIG based wind turbines using synchronous reference frame control based dynamic voltage restorer.

PubMed

Rini Ann Jerin, A; Kaliannan, Palanisamy; Subramaniam, Umashankar

2017-09-01

Fault ride through (FRT) capability in wind turbines to maintain the grid stability during faults has become mandatory with the increasing grid penetration of wind energy. Doubly fed induction generator based wind turbine (DFIG-WT) is the most popularly utilized type of generator but highly susceptible to the voltage disturbances in grid. Dynamic voltage restorer (DVR) based external FRT capability improvement is considered. Since DVR is capable of providing fast voltage sag mitigation during faults and can maintain the nominal operating conditions for DFIG-WT. The effectiveness of the DVR using Synchronous reference frame (SRF) control is investigated for FRT capability in DFIG-WT during both balanced and unbalanced fault conditions. The operation of DVR is confirmed using time-domain simulation in MATLAB/Simulink using 1.5MW DFIG-WT. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk management of key issues of FPSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Liping; Sun, Hai

2012-12-01

Risk analysis of key systems have become a growing topic late of because of the development of offshore structures. Equipment failures of offloading system and fire accidents were analyzed based on the floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) features. Fault tree analysis (FTA), and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) methods were examined based on information already researched on modules of relex reliability studio (RRS). Equipment failures were also analyzed qualitatively by establishing a fault tree and Boolean structure function based on the shortage of failure cases, statistical data, and risk control measures examined. Failure modes of fire accident were classified according to the different areas of fire occurrences during the FMEA process, using risk priority number (RPN) methods to evaluate their severity rank. The qualitative analysis of FTA gave the basic insight of forming the failure modes of FPSO offloading, and the fire FMEA gave the priorities and suggested processes. The research has practical importance for the security analysis problems of FPSO.

Application of fuzzy fault tree analysis based on modified fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS for fire and explosion in the process industry.

PubMed

Yazdi, Mohammad; Korhan, Orhan; Daneshvar, Sahand

2018-05-09

This study aimed at establishing fault tree analysis (FTA) using expert opinion to compute the probability of an event. To find the probability of the top event (TE), all probabilities of the basic events (BEs) should be available when the FTA is drawn. In this case, employing expert judgment can be used as an alternative to failure data in an awkward situation. The fuzzy analytical hierarchy process as a standard technique is used to give a specific weight to each expert, and fuzzy set theory is engaged for aggregating expert opinion. In this regard, the probability of BEs will be computed and, consequently, the probability of the TE obtained using Boolean algebra. Additionally, to reduce the probability of the TE in terms of three parameters (safety consequences, cost and benefit), the importance measurement technique and modified TOPSIS was employed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated with a real-life case study.

Fault tree analysis of fire and explosion accidents for dual fuel (diesel/natural gas) ship engine rooms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Yifeng; Zhao, Jie; Shi, Tengfei; Zhu, Peipei

2016-09-01

In recent years, China's increased interest in environmental protection has led to a promotion of energy-efficient dual fuel (diesel/natural gas) ships in Chinese inland rivers. A natural gas as ship fuel may pose dangers of fire and explosion if a gas leak occurs. If explosions or fires occur in the engine rooms of a ship, heavy damage and losses will be incurred. In this paper, a fault tree model is presented that considers both fires and explosions in a dual fuel ship; in this model, dual fuel engine rooms are the top events. All the basic events along with the minimum cut sets are obtained through the analysis. The primary factors that affect accidents involving fires and explosions are determined by calculating the degree of structure importance of the basic events. According to these results, corresponding measures are proposed to ensure and improve the safety and reliability of Chinese inland dual fuel ships.

Using fault tree analysis to identify contributing factors to engulfment in flowing grain in on-farm grain bins.

PubMed

Kingman, D M; Field, W E

2005-11-01

Findings reported by researchers at Illinois State University and Purdue University indicated that since 1980, an average of eight individuals per year have become engulfed and died in farm grain bins in the U.S. and Canada and that all these deaths are significant because they are believed to be preventable. During a recent effort to develop intervention strategies and recommendations for an ASAE farm grain bin safety standard, fault tree analysis (FTA) was utilized to identify contributing factors to engulfments in grain stored in on-farm grain bins. FTA diagrams provided a spatial perspective of the circumstances that occurred prior to engulfment incidents, a perspective never before presented in other hazard analyses. The FTA also demonstrated relationships and interrelationships of the contributing factors. FTA is a useful tool that should be applied more often in agricultural incident investigations to assist in the more complete understanding of the problem studied.

Fault tree analysis for data-loss in long-term monitoring networks.

PubMed

Dirksen, J; ten Veldhuis, J A E; Schilperoort, R P S

2009-01-01

Prevention of data-loss is an important aspect in the design as well as the operational phase of monitoring networks since data-loss can seriously limit intended information yield. In the literature limited attention has been paid to the origin of unreliable or doubtful data from monitoring networks. Better understanding of causes of data-loss points out effective solutions to increase data yield. This paper introduces FTA as a diagnostic tool to systematically deduce causes of data-loss in long-term monitoring networks in urban drainage systems. In order to illustrate the effectiveness of FTA, a fault tree is developed for a monitoring network and FTA is applied to analyze the data yield of a UV/VIS submersible spectrophotometer. Although some of the causes of data-loss cannot be recovered because the historical database of metadata has been updated infrequently, the example points out that FTA still is a powerful tool to analyze the causes of data-loss and provides useful information on effective data-loss prevention.

Accurate reliability analysis method for quantum-dot cellular automata circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Huanqing; Cai, Li; Wang, Sen; Liu, Xiaoqiang; Yang, Xiaokuo

2015-10-01

Probabilistic transfer matrix (PTM) is a widely used model in the reliability research of circuits. However, PTM model cannot reflect the impact of input signals on reliability, so it does not completely conform to the mechanism of the novel field-coupled nanoelectronic device which is called quantum-dot cellular automata (QCA). It is difficult to get accurate results when PTM model is used to analyze the reliability of QCA circuits. To solve this problem, we present the fault tree models of QCA fundamental devices according to different input signals. After that, the binary decision diagram (BDD) is used to quantitatively investigate the reliability of two QCA XOR gates depending on the presented models. By employing the fault tree models, the impact of input signals on reliability can be identified clearly and the crucial components of a circuit can be found out precisely based on the importance values (IVs) of components. So this method is contributive to the construction of reliable QCA circuits.

Nuclear power plant digital system PRA pilot study with the dynamic flow-graph methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yau, M.; Motamed, M.; Guarro, S.

2006-07-01

Current Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methodology is well established in analyzing hardware and some of the key human interactions. However processes for analyzing the software functions of digital systems within a plant PRA framework, and accounting for the digital system contribution to the overall risk are not generally available nor are they well understood and established. A recent study reviewed a number of methodologies that have potential applicability to modeling and analyzing digital systems within a PRA framework. This study identified the Dynamic Flow-graph Methodology (DFM) and the Markov Methodology as the most promising tools. As a result of thismore » study, a task was defined under the framework of a collaborative agreement between the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Ohio State Univ. (OSU). The objective of this task is to set up benchmark systems representative of digital systems used in nuclear power plants and to evaluate DFM and the Markov methodology with these benchmark systems. The first benchmark system is a typical Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Steam Generator (SG) Feedwater System (FWS) level control system based on an earlier ASCA work with the U.S. NRC 2, upgraded with modern control laws. ASCA, Inc. is currently under contract to OSU to apply DFM to this benchmark system. The goal is to investigate the feasibility of using DFM to analyze and quantify digital system risk, and to integrate the DFM analytical results back into the plant event tree/fault tree PRA model. (authors)« less

Rupture complexity and the supershear transition on rough faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruhat, Lucile; Fang, Zijun; Dunham, Eric M.

2016-01-01

Field investigations suggest that supershear earthquakes occur on geometrically simple, smooth fault segments. In contrast, dynamic rupture simulations show how heterogeneity of stress, strength, and fault geometry can trigger supershear transitions, as well as other complex rupture styles. Here we examine the Fang and Dunham (2013) ensemble of 2-D plane strain dynamic ruptures on fractally rough faults subject to strongly rate weakening friction laws to document the effect of fault roughness and prestress on rupture behavior. Roughness gives rise to extremely diverse rupture styles, such as rupture arrests, secondary slip pulses that rerupture previously slipped fault sections, and supershear transitions. Even when the prestress is below the Burridge-Andrews threshold for supershear on planar faults with uniform stress and strength conditions, supershear transitions are observed. A statistical analysis of the rupture velocity distribution reveals that supershear transients become increasingly likely at higher stress levels and on rougher faults. We examine individual ruptures and identify recurrent patterns for the supershear transition. While some transitions occur on fault segments that are favorably oriented in the background stress field, other transitions happen at the initiation of or after propagation through an unfavorable bend. We conclude that supershear transients are indeed favored by geometric complexity. In contrast, sustained supershear propagation is most common on segments that are locally smoother than average. Because rupture style is so sensitive to both background stress and small-scale details of the fault geometry, it seems unlikely that field maps of fault traces will provide reliable deterministic predictions of supershear propagation on specific fault segments.

Haul truck tire dynamics due to tire condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaghar Anzabi, R.; Nobes, D. S.; Lipsett, M. G.

2012-05-01

Pneumatic tires are costly components on large off-road haul trucks used in surface mining operations. Tires are prone to damage during operation, and these events can lead to injuries to personnel, loss of equipment, and reduced productivity. Damage rates have significant variability, due to operating conditions and a range of tire fault modes. Currently, monitoring of tire condition is done by physical inspection; and the mean time between inspections is often longer than the mean time between incipient failure and functional failure of the tire. Options for new condition monitoring methods include off-board thermal imaging and camera-based optical methods for detecting abnormal deformation and surface features, as well as on-board sensors to detect tire faults during vehicle operation. Physics-based modeling of tire dynamics can provide a good understanding of the tire behavior, and give insight into observability requirements for improved monitoring systems. This paper describes a model to simulate the dynamics of haul truck tires when a fault is present to determine the effects of physical parameter changes that relate to faults. To simulate the dynamics, a lumped mass 'quarter-vehicle' model has been used to determine the response of the system to a road profile when a failure changes the original properties of the tire. The result is a model of tire vertical displacement that can be used to detect a fault, which will be tested under field conditions in time-varying conditions.

Reliability modelling and analysis of a multi-state element based on a dynamic Bayesian network

PubMed Central

Xu, Tingxue; Gu, Junyuan; Dong, Qi; Fu, Linyu

2018-01-01

This paper presents a quantitative reliability modelling and analysis method for multi-state elements based on a combination of the Markov process and a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), taking perfect repair, imperfect repair and condition-based maintenance (CBM) into consideration. The Markov models of elements without repair and under CBM are established, and an absorbing set is introduced to determine the reliability of the repairable element. According to the state-transition relations between the states determined by the Markov process, a DBN model is built. In addition, its parameters for series and parallel systems, namely, conditional probability tables, can be calculated by referring to the conditional degradation probabilities. Finally, the power of a control unit in a failure model is used as an example. A dynamic fault tree (DFT) is translated into a Bayesian network model, and subsequently extended to a DBN. The results show the state probabilities of an element and the system without repair, with perfect and imperfect repair, and under CBM, with an absorbing set plotted by differential equations and verified. Through referring forward, the reliability value of the control unit is determined in different kinds of modes. Finally, weak nodes are noted in the control unit. PMID:29765629

Aftershocks halted by static stress shadows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toda, Shinji; Stein, Ross S.; Beroza, Gregory C.; Marsan, David

2012-01-01

Earthquakes impart static and dynamic stress changes to the surrounding crust. Sudden fault slip causes small but permanent—static—stress changes, and passing seismic waves cause large, but brief and oscillatory—dynamic—stress changes. Because both static and dynamic stresses can trigger earthquakes within several rupture dimensions of a mainshock, it has proven difficult to disentangle their contributions to the triggering process1–3. However, only dynamic stress can trigger earthquakes far from the source4,5, and only static stress can create stress shadows, where the stress and thus the seismicity rate in the shadow area drops following an earthquake6–9 . Here we calculate the stress imparted by the magnitude 6.1 Joshua Tree and nearby magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquakes that occurred in California in April and June 1992, respectively, and measure seismicity through time. We show that, where the aftershock zone of the first earthquake was subjected to a static stress increase from the second, the seismicity rate jumped. In contrast, where the aftershock zone of the first earthquake fell under the stress shadow of the second and static stress dropped, seismicity shut down. The arrest of seismicity implies that static stress is a requisite element of spatial clustering of large earthquakes and should be a constituent of hazard assessment.

Evaluation of passenger health risk assessment of sustainable indoor air quality monitoring in metro systems based on a non-Gaussian dynamic sensor validation method.

PubMed

Kim, MinJeong; Liu, Hongbin; Kim, Jeong Tai; Yoo, ChangKyoo

2014-08-15

Sensor faults in metro systems provide incorrect information to indoor air quality (IAQ) ventilation systems, resulting in the miss-operation of ventilation systems and adverse effects on passenger health. In this study, a new sensor validation method is proposed to (1) detect, identify and repair sensor faults and (2) evaluate the influence of sensor reliability on passenger health risk. To address the dynamic non-Gaussianity problem of IAQ data, dynamic independent component analysis (DICA) is used. To detect and identify sensor faults, the DICA-based squared prediction error and sensor validity index are used, respectively. To restore the faults to normal measurements, a DICA-based iterative reconstruction algorithm is proposed. The comprehensive indoor air-quality index (CIAI) that evaluates the influence of the current IAQ on passenger health is then compared using the faulty and reconstructed IAQ data sets. Experimental results from a metro station showed that the DICA-based method can produce an improved IAQ level in the metro station and reduce passenger health risk since it more accurately validates sensor faults than do conventional methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Triggered dynamics in a model of different fault creep regimes

PubMed Central

Kostić, Srđan; Franović, Igor; Perc, Matjaž; Vasović, Nebojša; Todorović, Kristina

2014-01-01

The study is focused on the effect of transient external force induced by a passing seismic wave on fault motion in different creep regimes. Displacement along the fault is represented by the movement of a spring-block model, whereby the uniform and oscillatory motion correspond to the fault dynamics in post-seismic and inter-seismic creep regime, respectively. The effect of the external force is introduced as a change of block acceleration in the form of a sine wave scaled by an exponential pulse. Model dynamics is examined for variable parameters of the induced acceleration changes in reference to periodic oscillations of the unperturbed system above the supercritical Hopf bifurcation curve. The analysis indicates the occurrence of weak irregular oscillations if external force acts in the post-seismic creep regime. When fault motion is exposed to external force in the inter-seismic creep regime, one finds the transition to quasiperiodic- or chaos-like motion, which we attribute to the precursory creep regime and seismic motion, respectively. If the triggered acceleration changes are of longer duration, a reverse transition from inter-seismic to post-seismic creep regime is detected on a larger time scale. PMID:24954397

Dynamic Dilational Strengthening During Earthquakes in Saturated Gouge-Filled Fault Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparks, D. W.; Higby, K.

2016-12-01

The effect of fluid pressure in saturated fault zones has been cited as an important factor in the strength and slip-stability of faults. Fluid pressure controls the effective normal stress across the fault and therefore controls the faults strength. In a fault core consisting of granular fault gouge, local transient dilations and compactions occur during slip that dynamically change the fluid pressure. We use a grain-scale numerical model to investigate the effect of these fluid effects in fault gouge during an earthquake. We use a coupled finite difference-discrete element model (Goren et al, 2011), in which the pore space is filled with a fluid. Local changes in grain packing generate local deviations in fluid pressure, which can be relieved by fluid flow through the permeable gouge. Fluid pressure gradients exert drag forces on the grains that couple the grain motion and fluid flow. We simulated 39 granular gouge zones that were slowly loaded in shear stress to near the failure point, and then conducted two different simulations starting from each grain packing: one with a high enough mean permeability (> 10-11 m2) that pressure remains everywhere equilibrated ("fully drained"), and one with a lower permeability ( 10-14 m2) in which flow is not fast enough to prevent significant pressure variations from developing ("undrained"). The static strength of the fault, the size of the event and the evolution of slip velocity are not imposed, but arise naturally from the granular packing. In our particular granular model, all fully drained slip events are well-modeled by a rapid drop in the frictional resistance of the granular packing from a static value to a dynamic value that remains roughly constant during slip. Undrained events show more complex behavior. In some cases, slip occurs via a slow creep with resistance near the static value. When rapid slip events do occur, the dynamic resistance is typically larger than in drained events, and highly variable. Frictional resistance is not correlated with the mean fluid pressure in the layer, but is instead controlled by local regions undergoing dilational strengthening. We find that (in the absence of pressure-generating effects like thermal pressurization or fluid-releasing reactions), the overall effect of fluid is to strengthen the fault.

Operational Performance Risk Assessment in Support of A Supervisory Control System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Denning, Richard S.; Muhlheim, Michael David; Cetiner, Sacit M.

Supervisory control system (SCS) is developed for multi-unit advanced small modular reactors to minimize human interventions in both normal and abnormal operations. In SCS, control action decisions made based on probabilistic risk assessment approach via Event Trees/Fault Trees. Although traditional PRA tools are implemented, their scope is extended to normal operations and application is reversed; success of non-safety related system instead failure of safety systems this extended PRA approach called as operational performance risk assessment (OPRA). OPRA helps to identify success paths, combination of control actions for transients and to quantify these success paths to provide possible actions without activatingmore » plant protection system. In this paper, a case study of the OPRA in supervisory control system is demonstrated within the context of the ALMR PRISM design, specifically power conversion system. The scenario investigated involved a condition that the feed water control valve is observed to be drifting to the closed position. Alternative plant configurations were identified via OPRA that would allow the plant to continue to operate at full or reduced power. Dynamic analyses were performed with a thermal-hydraulic model of the ALMR PRISM system using Modelica to evaluate remained safety margins. Successful recovery paths for the selected scenario are identified and quantified via SCS.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Paul A.

Nonlinear dynamics induced by seismic sources and seismic waves are common in Earth. Observations range from seismic strong ground motion (the most damaging aspect of earthquakes), intense near-source effects, and distant nonlinear effects from the source that have important consequences. The distant effects include dynamic earthquake triggering-one of the most fascinating topics in seismology today-which may be elastically nonlinearly driven. Dynamic earthquake triggering is the phenomenon whereby seismic waves generated from one earthquake trigger slip events on a nearby or distant fault. Dynamic triggering may take place at distances thousands of kilometers from the triggering earthquake, and includes triggering ofmore » the entire spectrum of slip behaviors currently identified. These include triggered earthquakes and triggered slow, silent-slip during which little seismic energy is radiated. It appears that the elasticity of the fault gouge-the granular material located between the fault blocks-is key to the triggering phenomenon.« less

49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... availability calculations for subsystems and components, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the subsystems, and... upper bound, as estimated with a sensitivity analysis, and the risk value selected must be demonstrated... interconnected subsystems/components? The risk assessment of each safety-critical system (product) must account...

49 CFR Appendix B to Part 236 - Risk Assessment Criteria

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... availability calculations for subsystems and components, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the subsystems, and... upper bound, as estimated with a sensitivity analysis, and the risk value selected must be demonstrated... interconnected subsystems/components? The risk assessment of each safety-critical system (product) must account...

49 CFR Appendix D to Part 236 - Independent Review of Verification and Validation

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... standards. (f) The reviewer shall analyze all Fault Tree Analyses (FTA), Failure Mode and Effects... for each product vulnerability cited by the reviewer; (4) Identification of any documentation or... not properly followed; (6) Identification of the software verification and validation procedures, as...

14 CFR 417.309 - Flight safety system analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... system anomaly occurring and all of its effects as determined by the single failure point analysis and... termination system. (c) Single failure point. A command control system must undergo an analysis that... fault tree analysis or a failure modes effects and criticality analysis; (2) Identify all possible...

14 CFR 417.309 - Flight safety system analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... system anomaly occurring and all of its effects as determined by the single failure point analysis and... termination system. (c) Single failure point. A command control system must undergo an analysis that... fault tree analysis or a failure modes effects and criticality analysis; (2) Identify all possible...

14 CFR 417.309 - Flight safety system analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... system anomaly occurring and all of its effects as determined by the single failure point analysis and... termination system. (c) Single failure point. A command control system must undergo an analysis that... fault tree analysis or a failure modes effects and criticality analysis; (2) Identify all possible...

14 CFR 417.309 - Flight safety system analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... system anomaly occurring and all of its effects as determined by the single failure point analysis and... termination system. (c) Single failure point. A command control system must undergo an analysis that... fault tree analysis or a failure modes effects and criticality analysis; (2) Identify all possible...

14 CFR 417.309 - Flight safety system analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... system anomaly occurring and all of its effects as determined by the single failure point analysis and... termination system. (c) Single failure point. A command control system must undergo an analysis that... fault tree analysis or a failure modes effects and criticality analysis; (2) Identify all possible...

Toward a Model-Based Approach for Flight System Fault Protection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Day, John; Meakin, Peter; Murray, Alex

2012-01-01

Use SysML/UML to describe the physical structure of the system This part of the model would be shared with other teams - FS Systems Engineering, Planning & Execution, V&V, Operations, etc., in an integrated model-based engineering environment Use the UML Profile mechanism, defining Stereotypes to precisely express the concepts of the FP domain This extends the UML/SysML languages to contain our FP concepts Use UML/SysML, along with our profile, to capture FP concepts and relationships in the model Generate typical FP engineering products (the FMECA, Fault Tree, MRD, V&V Matrices)

Conversion of Questionnaire Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powell, Danny H; Elwood Jr, Robert H

During the survey, respondents are asked to provide qualitative answers (well, adequate, needs improvement) on how well material control and accountability (MC&A) functions are being performed. These responses can be used to develop failure probabilities for basic events performed during routine operation of the MC&A systems. The failure frequencies for individual events may be used to estimate total system effectiveness using a fault tree in a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Numeric risk values are required for the PRA fault tree calculations that are performed to evaluate system effectiveness. So, the performance ratings in the questionnaire must be converted to relativemore » risk values for all of the basic MC&A tasks performed in the facility. If a specific material protection, control, and accountability (MPC&A) task is being performed at the 'perfect' level, the task is considered to have a near zero risk of failure. If the task is performed at a less than perfect level, the deficiency in performance represents some risk of failure for the event. As the degree of deficiency in performance increases, the risk of failure increases. If a task that should be performed is not being performed, that task is in a state of failure. The failure probabilities of all basic events contribute to the total system risk. Conversion of questionnaire MPC&A system performance data to numeric values is a separate function from the process of completing the questionnaire. When specific questions in the questionnaire are answered, the focus is on correctly assessing and reporting, in an adjectival manner, the actual performance of the related MC&A function. Prior to conversion, consideration should not be given to the numeric value that will be assigned during the conversion process. In the conversion process, adjectival responses to questions on system performance are quantified based on a log normal scale typically used in human error analysis (see A.D. Swain and H.E. Guttmann, 'Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications,' NUREG/CR-1278). This conversion produces the basic event risk of failure values required for the fault tree calculations. The fault tree is a deductive logic structure that corresponds to the operational nuclear MC&A system at a nuclear facility. The conventional Delphi process is a time-honored approach commonly used in the risk assessment field to extract numerical values for the failure rates of actions or activities when statistically significant data is absent.« less

A wideband magnetoresistive sensor for monitoring dynamic fault slip in laboratory fault friction experiments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kilgore, Brian D.

2017-01-01

A non-contact, wideband method of sensing dynamic fault slip in laboratory geophysical experiments employs an inexpensive magnetoresistive sensor, a small neodymium rare earth magnet, and user built application-specific wideband signal conditioning. The magnetoresistive sensor generates a voltage proportional to the changing angles of magnetic flux lines, generated by differential motion or rotation of the near-by magnet, through the sensor. The performance of an array of these sensors compares favorably to other conventional position sensing methods employed at multiple locations along a 2 m long × 0.4 m deep laboratory strike-slip fault. For these magnetoresistive sensors, the lack of resonance signals commonly encountered with cantilever-type position sensor mounting, the wide band response (DC to ≈ 100 kHz) that exceeds the capabilities of many traditional position sensors, and the small space required on the sample, make them attractive options for capturing high speed fault slip measurements in these laboratory experiments. An unanticipated observation of this study is the apparent sensitivity of this sensor to high frequency electomagnetic signals associated with fault rupture and (or) rupture propagation, which may offer new insights into the physics of earthquake faulting.

Extreme scale multi-physics simulations of the tsunamigenic 2004 Sumatra megathrust earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrich, T.; Gabriel, A. A.; Madden, E. H.; Wollherr, S.; Uphoff, C.; Rettenberger, S.; Bader, M.

2017-12-01

SeisSol (www.seissol.org) is an open-source software package based on an arbitrary high-order derivative Discontinuous Galerkin method (ADER-DG). It solves spontaneous dynamic rupture propagation on pre-existing fault interfaces according to non-linear friction laws, coupled to seismic wave propagation with high-order accuracy in space and time (minimal dispersion errors). SeisSol exploits unstructured meshes to account for complex geometries, e.g. high resolution topography and bathymetry, 3D subsurface structure, and fault networks. We present the up-to-date largest (1500 km of faults) and longest (500 s) dynamic rupture simulation modeling the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. We demonstrate the need for end-to-end-optimization and petascale performance of scientific software to realize realistic simulations on the extreme scales of subduction zone earthquakes: Considering the full complexity of subduction zone geometries leads inevitably to huge differences in element sizes. The main code improvements include a cache-aware wave propagation scheme and optimizations of the dynamic rupture kernels using code generation. In addition, a novel clustered local-time-stepping scheme for dynamic rupture has been established. Finally, asynchronous output has been implemented to overlap I/O and compute time. We resolve the frictional sliding process on the curved mega-thrust and a system of splay faults, as well as the seismic wave field and seafloor displacement with frequency content up to 2.2 Hz. We validate the scenario by geodetic, seismological and tsunami observations. The resulting rupture dynamics shed new light on the activation and importance of splay faults.

Preliminary Isostatic Gravity Map of Joshua Tree National Park and Vicinity, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langenheim, V.E.; Biehler, Shawn; McPhee, D.K.; McCabe, C.A.; Watt, J.T.; Anderson, M.L.; Chuchel, B.A.; Stoffer, P.

2007-01-01

This isostatic residual gravity map is part of an effort to map the three-dimensional distribution of rocks in Joshua Tree National Park, southern California. This map will serve as a basis for modeling the shape of basins beneath the Park and in adjacent valleys and also for determining the location and geometry of faults within the area. Local spatial variations in the Earth's gravity field, after accounting for variations caused by elevation, terrain, and deep crustal structure, reflect the distribution of densities in the mid- to upper crust. Densities often can be related to rock type, and abrupt spatial changes in density commonly mark lithologic or structural boundaries. High-density basement rocks exposed within the Eastern Transverse Ranges include crystalline rocks that range in age from Proterozoic to Mesozoic and these rocks are generally present in the mountainous areas of the quadrangle. Alluvial sediments, usually located in the valleys, and Tertiary sedimentary rocks are characterized by low densities. However, with increasing depth of burial and age, the densities of these rocks may become indistinguishable from those of basement rocks. Tertiary volcanic rocks are characterized by a wide range of densities, but, on average, are less dense than the pre-Cenozoic basement rocks. Basalt within the Park is as dense as crystalline basement, but is generally thin (less than 100 m thick; e.g., Powell, 2003). Isostatic residual gravity values within the map area range from about 44 mGal over Coachella Valley to about 8 mGal between the Mecca Hills and the Orocopia Mountains. Steep linear gravity gradients are coincident with the traces of several Quaternary strike-slip faults, most notably along the San Andreas Fault bounding the east side of Coachella Valley and east-west-striking, left-lateral faults, such as the Pinto Mountain, Blue Cut, and Chiriaco Faults (Fig. 1). Gravity gradients also define concealed basin-bounding faults, such as those beneath the Chuckwalla Valley (e.g. Rotstein and others, 1976). These gradients result from juxtaposing dense basement rocks against thick Cenozoic sedimentary rocks.

Experimental Measurements of Permeability Evolution along Faults during Progressive Slip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strutz, M.; Mitchell, T. M.; Renner, J.

2010-12-01

Little is currently known about the dynamic changes in fault-parallel permeability along rough faults during progressive slip. With increasing slip, asperities are worn to produce gouge which can dramatically reduce along fault permeability within the slip zone. However, faults can have a range of roughness which can affect both the porosity and both the amount and distribution of fault wear material produced in the slipping zone during the early stages of fault evolution. In this novel study we investigate experimentally the evolution of permeability along a fault plane in granite sawcut sliding blocks with a variety of intial roughnesses in a triaxial apparatus. Drillholes in the samples allow the permeability to be measured along the fault plane during loading and subsequent fault displacement. Use of the pore pressure oscillation technique (PPO) allows the continuous measurement of permeability without having to stop loading. To achieve a range of intial starting roughnesses, faults sawcut surfaces were prepared using a variety of corundum powders ranging from 10 µm to 220 µm, and for coarser roughness were air-blasted with glass beads up to 800µm in size. Fault roughness has been quantified with a laser profileometer. During sliding, we measure the acoustic emissions in order to detect grain cracking and asperity shearing which may relate to both the mechanical and permeability data. Permeability shows relative reductions of up to over 4 orders of magnitude during stable sliding as asperities are sheared to produce a fine fault gouge. This variation in permeability is greatest for the roughest faults, reducing as fault roughness decreases. The onset of permeability reduction is contemporaneous with a dramatic reduction in the amount of detected acoustic emissions, where a continuous layer of fault gouge has developed. The amount of fault gouge produced is related to the initial roughness, with the rough faults showing larger fault gouge layers at the end of slip. Following large stress drops and stick slip events, permeability can both increase and decrease due to dynamic changes in pore pressure during fast sliding events. We present a summary of preliminary data to date, and discuss some of the problems and unknowns when using the PPO method to measure permeability.

Dynamic rupture models of earthquakes on the Bartlett Springs Fault, Northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lozos, Julian C.; Harris, Ruth A.; Murray, Jessica R.; Lienkaemper, James J.

2015-01-01

The Bartlett Springs Fault (BSF), the easternmost branch of the northern San Andreas Fault system, creeps along much of its length. Geodetic data for the BSF are sparse, and surface creep rates are generally poorly constrained. The two existing geodetic slip rate inversions resolve at least one locked patch within the creeping zones. We use the 3-D finite element code FaultMod to conduct dynamic rupture models based on both geodetic inversions, in order to determine the ability of rupture to propagate into the creeping regions, as well as to assess possible magnitudes for BSF ruptures. For both sets of models, we find that the distribution of aseismic creep limits the extent of coseismic rupture, due to the contrast in frictional properties between the locked and creeping regions.

Ground Motion Synthetics For Spontaneous Versus Prescribed Rupture On A 45(o) Thrust Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gottschämmer, E.; Olsen, K. B.

We have compared prescribed (kinematic) and spontaneous dynamic rupture propaga- tion on a 45(o) dipping thrust fault buried up to 5 km in a half-space model, as well as ground motions on the free surface for frequencies less than 1 Hz. The computa- tions are carried out using a 3D finite-difference method with rate-and-state friction on a planar, 20 km by 20 km fault. We use a slip-weakening distance of 15 cm and a slip- velocity weakening distance of 9.2 cm/s, similar to those for the dynamic study for the 1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake by Nielsen and Olsen (2000) which generated satis- factory fits to selected strong motion data in the San Fernando Valley. The prescribed rupture propagation was designed to mimic that of the dynamic simulation at depth in order to isolate the dynamic free-surface effects. In this way, the results reflect the dy- namic (normal-stress) interaction with the free surface for various depths of burial of the fault. We find that the moment, peak slip and peak sliprate for the rupture breaking the surface are increased by up to 60%, 80%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the values for the scenario buried 5 km. The inclusion of these effects increases the peak displacements and velocities above the fault by factors up 3.4 and 2.9 including the increase in moment due to normal-stress effects at the free surface, and up to 2.1 and 2.0 when scaled to a Northridge-size event with surface rupture. Similar differences were found by Aagaard et al. (2001). Significant dynamic effects on the ground mo- tions include earlier arrival times caused by super-shear rupture velocities (break-out phases), in agreement with the dynamic finite-element simulations by Oglesby et al. (1998, 2000). The presence of shallow low-velocity layers tend to increase the rup- ture time and the sliprate. In particular, they promote earlier transitions to super-shear velocities and decrease the rupture velocity within the layers. Our results suggest that dynamic interaction with the free surface can significantly affect the ground motion for faults buried less than 1-3 km. We therefore recommend that strong ground motion for these scenarios be computed including such dynamic rupture effects.

Modeling Sensor Reliability in Fault Diagnosis Based on Evidence Theory

PubMed Central

Yuan, Kaijuan; Xiao, Fuyuan; Fei, Liguo; Kang, Bingyi; Deng, Yong

2016-01-01

Sensor data fusion plays an important role in fault diagnosis. Dempster–Shafer (D-R) evidence theory is widely used in fault diagnosis, since it is efficient to combine evidence from different sensors. However, under the situation where the evidence highly conflicts, it may obtain a counterintuitive result. To address the issue, a new method is proposed in this paper. Not only the statistic sensor reliability, but also the dynamic sensor reliability are taken into consideration. The evidence distance function and the belief entropy are combined to obtain the dynamic reliability of each sensor report. A weighted averaging method is adopted to modify the conflict evidence by assigning different weights to evidence according to sensor reliability. The proposed method has better performance in conflict management and fault diagnosis due to the fact that the information volume of each sensor report is taken into consideration. An application in fault diagnosis based on sensor fusion is illustrated to show the efficiency of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy of fault diagnosis from 81.19% to 89.48% compared to the existing methods. PMID:26797611

Fault detection and diagnosis for non-Gaussian stochastic distribution systems with time delays via RBF neural networks.

PubMed

Yi, Qu; Zhan-ming, Li; Er-chao, Li

2012-11-01

A new fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) problem via the output probability density functions (PDFs) for non-gausian stochastic distribution systems (SDSs) is investigated. The PDFs can be approximated by radial basis functions (RBFs) neural networks. Different from conventional FDD problems, the measured information for FDD is the output stochastic distributions and the stochastic variables involved are not confined to Gaussian ones. A (RBFs) neural network technique is proposed so that the output PDFs can be formulated in terms of the dynamic weighings of the RBFs neural network. In this work, a nonlinear adaptive observer-based fault detection and diagnosis algorithm is presented by introducing the tuning parameter so that the residual is as sensitive as possible to the fault. Stability and Convergency analysis is performed in fault detection and fault diagnosis analysis for the error dynamic system. At last, an illustrated example is given to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm, and satisfactory results have been obtained. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three dimensional modelling of earthquake rupture cycles on frictional faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, Guy; May, Dave

2017-04-01

We are developing an efficient MPI-parallel numerical method to simulate earthquake sequences on preexisting faults embedding within a three dimensional viscoelastic half-space. We solve the velocity form of the elasto(visco)dynamic equations using a continuous Galerkin Finite Element Method on an unstructured pentahedral mesh, which thus permits local spatial refinement in the vicinity of the fault. Friction sliding is coupled to the viscoelastic solid via rate- and state-dependent friction laws using the split-node technique. Our coupled formulation employs a picard-type non-linear solver with a fully implicit, first order accurate time integrator that utilises an adaptive time step that efficiently evolves the system through multiple seismic cycles. The implementation leverages advanced parallel solvers, preconditioners and linear algebra from the Portable Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computing (PETSc) library. The model can treat heterogeneous frictional properties and stress states on the fault and surrounding solid as well as non-planar fault geometries. Preliminary tests show that the model successfully reproduces dynamic rupture on a vertical strike-slip fault in a half-space governed by rate-state friction with the ageing law.

Metapopulation dynamics and future persistence of epiphytic cyanolichens in a European boreal forest ecosystem

PubMed Central

Fedrowitz, Katja; Kuusinen, Mikko; Snäll, Tord

2012-01-01

1. One approach to biodiversity conservation is to set aside small woodland key habitats (WKHs) in intensively managed landscapes. The aim is to support species, such as epiphytes, which often depend on old trees and are negatively affected by intensive forestry. However, it is not known whether the number of host trees within these areas can sustain species in the long term. 2. We studied metapopulation dynamics and assessed the future persistence of epiphytes assuming host tree numbers similar to those observed in large north European WKHs. The study species were seven cyanolichens confined to Populus tremula in the boreal study area. Colonizations and extinctions were recorded in 2008 on trees that had been surveyed 13 years earlier. We applied generalized (non)linear models to test the importance of environmental conditions, facilitation and spatial connectivity on the metapopulation dynamics. We also simulated the effects of tree numbers and tree fall rates on future species persistence. 3. Metapopulation dynamics were explained by tree quality, size or tree fall. In one species, colonizations increased with increasing connectivity, and in a second species it increased if other lichens sharing the photobiont with the focal species were present, suggesting facilitation. Both stochastic extinctions from standing trees and deterministic extinctions caused by tree fall should be accounted for in projecting epiphyte metapopulation dynamics. 4. One to three infrequent, sexually dispersed study species face a significant extinction risk within 50 years, especially in areas with low tree numbers. 5. Synthesis and applications. During the coming decades, infrequent, sexually dispersed, epiphytic lichens are likely to be lost from small woodland habitat set asides in intensively managed landscapes. Local extinction will be a consequence of low colonization rates and tree fall. Low colonization rates can be prevented by retaining large trees on which lichen species colonization rates are the highest and by assuring a high density of occupied trees. The negative effect of tree fall should be compensated for by assuring continuous availability of old trees. This can be achieved by decreasing the populations of large browsers, or by retaining trees with high conservation value during management operations. PMID:22745512

Experimental study on propagation of fault slip along a simulated rock fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizoguchi, K.

2015-12-01

Around pre-existing geological faults in the crust, we have often observed off-fault damage zone where there are many fractures with various scales, from ~ mm to ~ m and their density typically increases with proximity to the fault. One of the fracture formation processes is considered to be dynamic shear rupture propagation on the faults, which leads to the occurrence of earthquakes. Here, I have conducted experiments on propagation of fault slip along a pre-cut rock surface to investigate the damaging behavior of rocks with slip propagation. For the experiments, I used a pair of metagabbro blocks from Tamil Nadu, India, of which the contacting surface simulates a fault of 35 cm in length and 1cm width. The experiments were done with the similar uniaxial loading configuration to Rosakis et al. (2007). Axial load σ is applied to the fault plane with an angle 60° to the loading direction. When σ is 5kN, normal and shear stresses on the fault are 1.25MPa and 0.72MPa, respectively. Timing and direction of slip propagation on the fault during the experiments were monitored with several strain gauges arrayed at an interval along the fault. The gauge data were digitally recorded with a 1MHz sampling rate and 16bit resolution. When σ is 4.8kN is applied, we observed some fault slip events where a slip nucleates spontaneously in a subsection of the fault and propagates to the whole fault. However, the propagation speed is about 1.2km/s, much lower than the S-wave velocity of the rock. This indicates that the slip events were not earthquake-like dynamic rupture ones. More efforts are needed to reproduce earthquake-like slip events in the experiments. This work is supported by the JSPS KAKENHI (26870912).

Permeability, storage and hydraulic diffusivity controlled by earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brodsky, E. E.; Fulton, P. M.; Xue, L.

2016-12-01

Earthquakes can increase permeability in fractured rocks. In the farfield, such permeability increases are attributed to seismic waves and can last for months after the initial earthquake. Laboratory studies suggest that unclogging of fractures by the transient flow driven by seismic waves is a viable mechanism. These dynamic permeability increases may contribute to permeability enhancement in the seismic clouds accompanying hydraulic fracking. Permeability enhancement by seismic waves could potentially be engineered and the experiments suggest the process will be most effective at a preferred frequency. We have recently observed similar processes inside active fault zones after major earthquakes. A borehole observatory in the fault that generated the M9.0 2011 Tohoku earthquake reveals a sequence of temperature pulses during the secondary aftershock sequence of an M7.3 aftershock. The pulses are attributed to fluid advection by a flow through a zone of transiently increased permeability. Directly after the M7.3 earthquake, the newly damaged fault zone is highly susceptible to further permeability enhancement, but ultimately heals within a month and becomes no longer as sensitive. The observation suggests that the newly damaged fault zone is more prone to fluid pulsing than would be expected based on the long-term permeability structure. Even longer term healing is seen inside the fault zone of the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The competition between damage and healing (or clogging and unclogging) results in dynamically controlled permeability, storage and hydraulic diffusivity. Recent measurements of in situ fault zone architecture at the 1-10 meter scale suggest that active fault zones often have hydraulic diffusivities near 10-2 m2/s. This uniformity is true even within the damage zone of the San Andreas fault where permeability and storage increases balance each other to achieve this value of diffusivity over a 400 m wide region. We speculate that fault zones may evolve to a preferred diffusivity in a dynamic equilibrium.

Quality-based Multimodal Classification Using Tree-Structured Sparsity

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-08

Pennsylvania State University soheil@psu.edu Asok Ray Pennsylvania State University axr2@psu.edu@psu.edu Nasser M. Nasrabadi Army Research Laboratory...clustering for on- line fault detection and isolation. Applied Intelligence, 35(2):269–284, 2011. 4 [2] S. Bahrampour, A. Ray , S. Sarkar, T. Damarla, and N

Assessing Institutional Ineffectiveness: A Strategy for Improvement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cameron, Kim S.

1984-01-01

Based on the theory that institutional change and improvement are motivated more by knowledge of problems than by knowledge of successes, a fault tree analysis technique using Boolean logic for assessing institutional ineffectiveness by determining weaknesses in the system is presented. Advantages and disadvantages of focusing on weakness rather…

Dynamic earthquake rupture simulations on nonplanar faults embedded in 3D geometrically complex, heterogeneous elastic solids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duru, Kenneth, E-mail: kduru@stanford.edu; Dunham, Eric M.; Institute for Computational and Mathematical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA

Dynamic propagation of shear ruptures on a frictional interface in an elastic solid is a useful idealization of natural earthquakes. The conditions relating discontinuities in particle velocities across fault zones and tractions acting on the fault are often expressed as nonlinear friction laws. The corresponding initial boundary value problems are both numerically and computationally challenging. In addition, seismic waves generated by earthquake ruptures must be propagated for many wavelengths away from the fault. Therefore, reliable and efficient numerical simulations require both provably stable and high order accurate numerical methods. We present a high order accurate finite difference method for: a)more » enforcing nonlinear friction laws, in a consistent and provably stable manner, suitable for efficient explicit time integration; b) dynamic propagation of earthquake ruptures along nonplanar faults; and c) accurate propagation of seismic waves in heterogeneous media with free surface topography. We solve the first order form of the 3D elastic wave equation on a boundary-conforming curvilinear mesh, in terms of particle velocities and stresses that are collocated in space and time, using summation-by-parts (SBP) finite difference operators in space. Boundary and interface conditions are imposed weakly using penalties. By deriving semi-discrete energy estimates analogous to the continuous energy estimates we prove numerical stability. The finite difference stencils used in this paper are sixth order accurate in the interior and third order accurate close to the boundaries. However, the method is applicable to any spatial operator with a diagonal norm satisfying the SBP property. Time stepping is performed with a 4th order accurate explicit low storage Runge–Kutta scheme, thus yielding a globally fourth order accurate method in both space and time. We show numerical simulations on band limited self-similar fractal faults revealing the complexity of rupture dynamics on rough faults.« less

Dynamic earthquake rupture simulations on nonplanar faults embedded in 3D geometrically complex, heterogeneous elastic solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duru, Kenneth; Dunham, Eric M.

2016-01-01

Dynamic propagation of shear ruptures on a frictional interface in an elastic solid is a useful idealization of natural earthquakes. The conditions relating discontinuities in particle velocities across fault zones and tractions acting on the fault are often expressed as nonlinear friction laws. The corresponding initial boundary value problems are both numerically and computationally challenging. In addition, seismic waves generated by earthquake ruptures must be propagated for many wavelengths away from the fault. Therefore, reliable and efficient numerical simulations require both provably stable and high order accurate numerical methods. We present a high order accurate finite difference method for: a) enforcing nonlinear friction laws, in a consistent and provably stable manner, suitable for efficient explicit time integration; b) dynamic propagation of earthquake ruptures along nonplanar faults; and c) accurate propagation of seismic waves in heterogeneous media with free surface topography. We solve the first order form of the 3D elastic wave equation on a boundary-conforming curvilinear mesh, in terms of particle velocities and stresses that are collocated in space and time, using summation-by-parts (SBP) finite difference operators in space. Boundary and interface conditions are imposed weakly using penalties. By deriving semi-discrete energy estimates analogous to the continuous energy estimates we prove numerical stability. The finite difference stencils used in this paper are sixth order accurate in the interior and third order accurate close to the boundaries. However, the method is applicable to any spatial operator with a diagonal norm satisfying the SBP property. Time stepping is performed with a 4th order accurate explicit low storage Runge-Kutta scheme, thus yielding a globally fourth order accurate method in both space and time. We show numerical simulations on band limited self-similar fractal faults revealing the complexity of rupture dynamics on rough faults.

Dynamic rupture simulation of the 2017 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura (New Zealand) earthquake: Is spontaneous multi-fault rupture expected?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ando, R.; Kaneko, Y.

2017-12-01

The coseismic rupture of the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake propagated over the distance of 150 km along the NE-SW striking fault system in the northern South Island of New Zealand. The analysis of In-SAR, GPS and field observations (Hamling et al., 2017) revealed that the most of the rupture occurred along the previously mapped active faults, involving more than seven major fault segments. These fault segments, mostly dipping to northwest, are distributed in a quite complex manner, manifested by fault branching and step-over structures. Back-projection rupture imaging shows that the rupture appears to jump between three sub-parallel fault segments in sequence from the south to north (Kaiser et al., 2017). The rupture seems to be terminated on the Needles fault in Cook Strait. One of the main questions is whether this multi-fault rupture can be naturally explained with the physical basis. In order to understand the conditions responsible for the complex rupture process, we conduct fully dynamic rupture simulations that account for 3-D non-planar fault geometry embedded in an elastic half-space. The fault geometry is constrained by previous In-SAR observations and geological inferences. The regional stress field is constrained by the result of stress tensor inversion based on focal mechanisms (Balfour et al., 2005). The fault is governed by a relatively simple, slip-weakening friction law. For simplicity, the frictional parameters are uniformly distributed as there is no direct estimate of them except for a shallow portion of the Kekerengu fault (Kaneko et al., 2017). Our simulations show that the rupture can indeed propagate through the complex fault system once it is nucleated at the southernmost segment. The simulated slip distribution is quite heterogeneous, reflecting the nature of non-planar fault geometry, fault branching and step-over structures. We find that optimally oriented faults exhibit larger slip, which is consistent with the slip model of Hamling et al. (2017). We conclude that the first order characteristics of this event may be interpreted by the effect of irregularity in the fault geometry.

An earthquake rate forecast for Europe based on smoothed seismicity and smoothed fault contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiemer, Stefan; Woessner, Jochen; Basili, Roberto; Wiemer, Stefan

2013-04-01

The main objective of project SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe) is to develop a community-based seismic hazard model for the Euro-Mediterranean region. The logic tree of earthquake rupture forecasts comprises several methodologies including smoothed seismicity approaches. Smoothed seismicity thus represents an alternative concept to express the degree of spatial stationarity of seismicity and provides results that are more objective, reproducible, and testable. Nonetheless, the smoothed-seismicity approach suffers from the common drawback of being generally based on earthquake catalogs alone, i.e. the wealth of knowledge from geology is completely ignored. We present a model that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults and subductions. The result is mainly driven by the data, being independent of subjective delineation of seismic source zones. The core parts of our model are two distinct location probability densities: The first is computed by smoothing past seismicity (using variable kernel smoothing to account for varying data density). The second is obtained by smoothing fault moment rate contributions. The fault moment rates are calculated by summing the moment rate of each fault patch on a fully parameterized and discretized fault as available from the SHARE fault database. We assume that the regional frequency-magnitude distribution of the entire study area is well known and estimate the a- and b-value of a truncated Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the seismic catalog. The two location probability densities are linearly weighted as a function of magnitude assuming that (1) the occurrence of past seismicity is a good proxy to forecast occurrence of future seismicity and (2) future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. Consequently, the underlying location density of our model depends on the magnitude. We scale the density with the estimated a-value in order to construct a forecast that specifies the earthquake rate in each longitude-latitude-magnitude bin. The model is intended to be one branch of SHARE's logic tree of rupture forecasts and provides rates of events in the magnitude range of 5 <= m <= 8.5 for the entire region of interest and is suitable for comparison with other long-term models in the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP).

Post-1980 shifts in the sensitivity of boreal tree growth to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics and seasonal climate. Tree growth responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ols, Clémentine; Trouet, Valerie; Girardin, Martin P.; Hofgaard, Annika; Bergeron, Yves; Drobyshev, Igor

2018-06-01

The mid-20th century changes in North Atlantic Ocean dynamics, e.g. slow-down of the Atlantic meridional overturning thermohaline circulation (AMOC), have been considered as early signs of tipping points in the Earth climate system. We hypothesized that these changes have significantly altered boreal forest growth dynamics in northeastern North America (NA) and northern Europe (NE), two areas geographically adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. To test our hypothesis, we investigated tree growth responses to seasonal large-scale oceanic and atmospheric indices (the AMOC, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO)) and climate (temperature and precipitation) from 1950 onwards, both at the regional and local levels. We developed a network of 6876 black spruce (NA) and 14437 Norway spruce (NE) tree-ring width series, extracted from forest inventory databases. Analyses revealed post-1980 shifts from insignificant to significant tree growth responses to summer oceanic and atmospheric dynamics both in NA (negative responses to NAO and AO indices) and NE (positive response to NAO and AMOC indices). The strength and sign of these responses varied, however, through space with stronger responses in western and central boreal Quebec and in central and northern boreal Sweden, and across scales with stronger responses at the regional level than at the local level. Emerging post-1980 associations with North Atlantic Ocean dynamics synchronized with stronger tree growth responses to local seasonal climate, particularly to winter temperatures. Our results suggest that ongoing and future anomalies in oceanic and atmospheric dynamics may impact forest growth and carbon sequestration to a greater extent than previously thought. Cross-scale differences in responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics highlight complex interplays in the effects of local climate and ocean-atmosphere dynamics on tree growth processes and advocate for the use of different spatial scales in climate-growth research to better understand factors controlling tree growth.

Managing Risk to Ensure a Successful Cassini/Huygens Saturn Orbit Insertion (SOI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Witkowski, Mona M.; Huh, Shin M.; Burt, John B.; Webster, Julie L.

2004-01-01

I. Design: a) S/C designed to be largely single fault tolerant; b) Operate in flight demonstrated envelope, with margin; and c) Strict compliance with requirements & flight rules. II. Test: a) Baseline, fault & stress testing using flight system testbeds (H/W & S/W); b) In-flight checkout & demos to remove first time events. III. Failure Analysis: a) Critical event driven fault tree analysis; b) Risk mitigation & development of contingencies. IV) Residual Risks: a) Accepted pre-launch waivers to Single Point Failures; b) Unavoidable risks (e.g. natural disaster). V) Mission Assurance: a) Strict process for characterization of variances (ISAs, PFRs & Waivers; b) Full time Mission Assurance Manager reports to Program Manager: 1) Independent assessment of compliance with institutional standards; 2) Oversight & risk assessment of ISAs, PFRs & Waivers etc.; and 3) Risk Management Process facilitator.

Short-term dynamics of second-growth mixed mesophytic forest strata in West Virginia

Treesearch

Cynthia C. Huebner; Steven L. Stephenson; Harold S. Adams; Gary W. Miller

2007-01-01

The short-term dynamics of mixed mesophytic forest strata in West Virginia were examined using similarity analysis and linear correlation of shared ordination space. The overstory tree, understory tree, shrub/vine, and herb strata were stable over a six year interval, whereas the tree seedling and sapling strata were unstable. All strata but the shrub/vine and tree...

The Dynamics of Germinal Centre Selection as Measured by Graph-Theoretical Analysis of Mutational Lineage Trees

PubMed Central

Dunn-Walters, Deborah K.; Belelovsky, Alex; Edelman, Hanna; Banerjee, Monica; Mehr, Ramit

2002-01-01

We have developed a rigorous graph-theoretical algorithm for quantifying the shape properties of mutational lineage trees. We show that information about the dynamics of hypermutation and antigen-driven clonal selection during the humoral immune response is contained in the shape of mutational lineage trees deduced from the responding clones. Age and tissue related differences in the selection process can be studied using this method. Thus, tree shape analysis can be used as a means of elucidating humoral immune response dynamics in various situations. PMID:15144020

Dynamic characteristics of a 20 kHz resonant power system - Fault identification and fault recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wasynczuk, O.

1988-01-01

A detailed simulation of a dc inductor resonant driver and receiver is used to demonstrate the transient characteristics of a 20 kHz resonant power system during fault and overload conditions. The simulated system consists of a dc inductor resonant inverter (driver), a 50-meter transmission cable, and a dc inductor resonant receiver load. Of particular interest are the driver and receiver performance during fault and overload conditions and on the recovery characteristics following removal of the fault. The information gained from these studies sets the stage for further work in fault identification and autonomous power system control.

Measuring the Resilience of Advanced Life Support Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Ann Maria; Dearden, Richard; Levri, Julie A.

2002-01-01

Despite the central importance of crew safety in designing and operating a life support system, the metric commonly used to evaluate alternative Advanced Life Support (ALS) technologies does not currently provide explicit techniques for measuring safety. The resilience of a system, or the system s ability to meet performance requirements and recover from component-level faults, is fundamentally a dynamic property. This paper motivates the use of computer models as a tool to understand and improve system resilience throughout the design process. Extensive simulation of a hybrid computational model of a water revitalization subsystem (WRS) with probabilistic, component-level faults provides data about off-nominal behavior of the system. The data can then be used to test alternative measures of resilience as predictors of the system s ability to recover from component-level faults. A novel approach to measuring system resilience using a Markov chain model of performance data is also developed. Results emphasize that resilience depends on the complex interaction of faults, controls, and system dynamics, rather than on simple fault probabilities.

An Intelligent Harmonic Synthesis Technique for Air-Gap Eccentricity Fault Diagnosis in Induction Motors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, De Z.; Wang, Wilson; Ismail, Fathy

2017-11-01

Induction motors (IMs) are commonly used in various industrial applications. To improve energy consumption efficiency, a reliable IM health condition monitoring system is very useful to detect IM fault at its earliest stage to prevent operation degradation, and malfunction of IMs. An intelligent harmonic synthesis technique is proposed in this work to conduct incipient air-gap eccentricity fault detection in IMs. The fault harmonic series are synthesized to enhance fault features. Fault related local spectra are processed to derive fault indicators for IM air-gap eccentricity diagnosis. The effectiveness of the proposed harmonic synthesis technique is examined experimentally by IMs with static air-gap eccentricity and dynamic air-gap eccentricity states under different load conditions. Test results show that the developed harmonic synthesis technique can extract fault features effectively for initial IM air-gap eccentricity fault detection.

Dynamic Event Tree advancements and control logic improvements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alfonsi, Andrea; Rabiti, Cristian; Mandelli, Diego

The RAVEN code has been under development at the Idaho National Laboratory since 2012. Its main goal is to create a multi-purpose platform for the deploying of all the capabilities needed for Probabilistic Risk Assessment, uncertainty quantification, data mining analysis and optimization studies. RAVEN is currently equipped with three different sampling categories: Forward samplers (Monte Carlo, Latin Hyper Cube, Stratified, Grid Sampler, Factorials, etc.), Adaptive Samplers (Limit Surface search, Adaptive Polynomial Chaos, etc.) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) samplers (Deterministic and Adaptive Dynamic Event Trees). The main subject of this document is to report the activities that have been donemore » in order to: start the migration of the RAVEN/RELAP-7 control logic system into MOOSE, and develop advanced dynamic sampling capabilities based on the Dynamic Event Tree approach. In order to provide to all MOOSE-based applications a control logic capability, in this Fiscal Year an initial migration activity has been initiated, moving the control logic system, designed for RELAP-7 by the RAVEN team, into the MOOSE framework. In this document, a brief explanation of what has been done is going to be reported. The second and most important subject of this report is about the development of a Dynamic Event Tree (DET) sampler named “Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (HDET) and its Adaptive variant “Adaptive Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (AHDET). As other authors have already reported, among the different types of uncertainties, it is possible to discern two principle types: aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The classical Dynamic Event Tree is in charge of treating the first class (aleatory) uncertainties; the dependence of the probabilistic risk assessment and analysis on the epistemic uncertainties are treated by an initial Monte Carlo sampling (MCDET). From each Monte Carlo sample, a DET analysis is run (in total, N trees). The Monte Carlo employs a pre-sampling of the input space characterized by epistemic uncertainties. The consequent Dynamic Event Tree performs the exploration of the aleatory space. In the RAVEN code, a more general approach has been developed, not limiting the exploration of the epistemic space through a Monte Carlo method but using all the forward sampling strategies RAVEN currently employs. The user can combine a Latin Hyper Cube, Grid, Stratified and Monte Carlo sampling in order to explore the epistemic space, without any limitation. From this pre-sampling, the Dynamic Event Tree sampler starts its aleatory space exploration. As reported by the authors, the Dynamic Event Tree is a good fit to develop a goal-oriented sampling strategy. The DET is used to drive a Limit Surface search. The methodology that has been developed by the authors last year, performs a Limit Surface search in the aleatory space only. This report documents how this approach has been extended in order to consider the epistemic space interacting with the Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree methodology.« less

Dynamic modeling of injection-induced fault reactivation and ground motion and impact on surface structures and human perception

DOE PAGES

Rutqvist, Jonny; Cappa, Frederic; Rinaldi, Antonio P.; ...

2014-12-31

We summarize recent modeling studies of injection-induced fault reactivation, seismicity, and its potential impact on surface structures and nuisance to the local human population. We used coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical numerical modeling, dynamic wave propagation modeling, seismology theories, and empirical vibration criteria from mining and construction industries. We first simulated injection-induced fault reactivation, including dynamic fault slip, seismic source, wave propagation, and ground vibrations. From co-seismic average shear displacement and rupture area, we determined the moment magnitude to about M w = 3 for an injection-induced fault reactivation at a depth of about 1000 m. We then analyzedmore » the ground vibration results in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and frequency content, with comparison to the U.S. Bureau of Mines’ vibration criteria for cosmetic damage to buildings, as well as human-perception vibration limits. For the considered synthetic M w = 3 event, our analysis showed that the short duration, high frequency ground motion may not cause any significant damage to surface structures, and would not cause, in this particular case, upward CO 2 leakage, but would certainly be felt by the local population.« less

Paper 58714 - Exploring activated faults hydromechanical processes from semi-controled field injection experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guglielmi, Y.; Cappa, F.; Nussbaum, C.

2015-12-01

The appreciation of the sensitivity of fractures and fault zones to fluid-induced-deformations in the subsurface is a key question in predicting the reservoir/caprock system integrity around fluid manipulations with applications to reservoir leakage and induced seismicity. It is also a question of interest in understanding earthquakes source, and recently the hydraulic behavior of clay faults under a potential reactivation around nuclear underground depository sites. Fault and fractures dynamics studies face two key problems (1) the up-scaling of laboratory determined properties and constitutive laws to the reservoir scale which is not straightforward when considering faults and fractures heterogeneities, (2) the difficulties to control both the induced seismicity and the stimulated zone geometry when a fault is reactivated. Using instruments dedicated to measuring coupled pore pressures and deformations downhole, we conducted field academic experiments to characterize fractures and fault zones hydromechanical properties as a function of their multi-scale architecture, and to monitor their dynamic behavior during the earthquake nucleation process. We show experiments on reservoir or cover rocks analogues in underground research laboratories where experimental conditions can be optimized. Key result of these experiments is to highlight how important the aseismic fault activation is compared to the induced seismicity. We show that about 80% of the fault kinematic moment is aseismic and discuss the complex associated fault friction coefficient variations. We identify that the slip stability and the slip velocity are mainly controlled by the rate of the permeability/porosity increase, and discuss the conditions for slip nucleation leading to seismic instability.

Reliability and availability evaluation of Wireless Sensor Networks for industrial applications.

PubMed

Silva, Ivanovitch; Guedes, Luiz Affonso; Portugal, Paulo; Vasques, Francisco

2012-01-01

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) currently represent the best candidate to be adopted as the communication solution for the last mile connection in process control and monitoring applications in industrial environments. Most of these applications have stringent dependability (reliability and availability) requirements, as a system failure may result in economic losses, put people in danger or lead to environmental damages. Among the different type of faults that can lead to a system failure, permanent faults on network devices have a major impact. They can hamper communications over long periods of time and consequently disturb, or even disable, control algorithms. The lack of a structured approach enabling the evaluation of permanent faults, prevents system designers to optimize decisions that minimize these occurrences. In this work we propose a methodology based on an automatic generation of a fault tree to evaluate the reliability and availability of Wireless Sensor Networks, when permanent faults occur on network devices. The proposal supports any topology, different levels of redundancy, network reconfigurations, criticality of devices and arbitrary failure conditions. The proposed methodology is particularly suitable for the design and validation of Wireless Sensor Networks when trying to optimize its reliability and availability requirements.

Reliability and Availability Evaluation of Wireless Sensor Networks for Industrial Applications

PubMed Central

Silva, Ivanovitch; Guedes, Luiz Affonso; Portugal, Paulo; Vasques, Francisco

2012-01-01

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) currently represent the best candidate to be adopted as the communication solution for the last mile connection in process control and monitoring applications in industrial environments. Most of these applications have stringent dependability (reliability and availability) requirements, as a system failure may result in economic losses, put people in danger or lead to environmental damages. Among the different type of faults that can lead to a system failure, permanent faults on network devices have a major impact. They can hamper communications over long periods of time and consequently disturb, or even disable, control algorithms. The lack of a structured approach enabling the evaluation of permanent faults, prevents system designers to optimize decisions that minimize these occurrences. In this work we propose a methodology based on an automatic generation of a fault tree to evaluate the reliability and availability of Wireless Sensor Networks, when permanent faults occur on network devices. The proposal supports any topology, different levels of redundancy, network reconfigurations, criticality of devices and arbitrary failure conditions. The proposed methodology is particularly suitable for the design and validation of Wireless Sensor Networks when trying to optimize its reliability and availability requirements. PMID:22368497

Dynamic test input generation for multiple-fault isolation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaefer, Phil

1990-01-01

Recent work is Causal Reasoning has provided practical techniques for multiple fault diagnosis. These techniques provide a hypothesis/measurement diagnosis cycle. Using probabilistic methods, they choose the best measurements to make, then update fault hypotheses in response. For many applications such as computers and spacecraft, few measurement points may be accessible, or values may change quickly as the system under diagnosis operates. In these cases, a hypothesis/measurement cycle is insufficient. A technique is presented for a hypothesis/test-input/measurement diagnosis cycle. In contrast to generating tests a priori for determining device functionality, it dynamically generates tests in response to current knowledge about fault probabilities. It is shown how the mathematics previously used for measurement specification can be applied to the test input generation process. An example from an efficient implementation called Multi-Purpose Causal (MPC) is presented.

Slip behaviour of experimental faults subjected to fluid pressure stimulation: carbonates vs. shales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collettini, C.; Scuderi, M. M.; Marone, C.

2017-12-01

Fluid overpressure is one of the primary mechanisms for triggering tectonic fault slip and human-induced seismicity. This mechanism has been invoked to explain the dramatic increase in seismicity associated with waste water disposal in intra-plate setting, and it is appealing because fluids lubricate the fault and reduce the effective normal stress that holds the fault in place. Although, this basic physical mechanism is well understood, several fundamental questions remain including the apparent delay between fluid injection and seismicity, the role of fault zone rheology, and the relationship between injection volume and earthquake size. Moreover, models of earthquake nucleation predict that a reduction in normal stress, as expected for fluid overpressure, should stabilize fault slip. Here, we address these questions using laboratory experiments, conducted in the double direct shear configuration in a true-triaxial machine on carbonates and shale fault gouges. In particular, we: 1) evaluate frictional strength and permeability, 2) characterize the rate- and state- friction parameters and 3) study fault slip evolution during fluid pressure stimulations. With increasing fluid pressure, when shear and effective normal stresses reach the failure condition, in calcite gouges, characterized by slightly velocity strengthening behaviour, we observe an acceleration of slip that spontaneously evolves into dynamic failure. For shale gouges, with a strong rate-strengthening behaviour, we document complex fault slip behavior characterized by periodic accelerations and decelerations with slip velocity that remains slow (i.e. v 200 µm/s), never approaching dynamic slip rates. Our data indicate that fault rheology and fault stability is controlled by the coupling between fluid pressure and rate- and state- friction parameters suggesting that their comprehensive characterization is fundamental for assessing the role of fluid pressure in natural and human induced earthquakes.

Metrics for comparing dynamic earthquake rupture simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barall, Michael; Harris, Ruth A.

2014-01-01

Earthquakes are complex events that involve a myriad of interactions among multiple geologic features and processes. One of the tools that is available to assist with their study is computer simulation, particularly dynamic rupture simulation. A dynamic rupture simulation is a numerical model of the physical processes that occur during an earthquake. Starting with the fault geometry, friction constitutive law, initial stress conditions, and assumptions about the condition and response of the near‐fault rocks, a dynamic earthquake rupture simulation calculates the evolution of fault slip and stress over time as part of the elastodynamic numerical solution (Ⓔ see the simulation description in the electronic supplement to this article). The complexity of the computations in a dynamic rupture simulation make it challenging to verify that the computer code is operating as intended, because there are no exact analytic solutions against which these codes’ results can be directly compared. One approach for checking if dynamic rupture computer codes are working satisfactorily is to compare each code’s results with the results of other dynamic rupture codes running the same earthquake simulation benchmark. To perform such a comparison consistently, it is necessary to have quantitative metrics. In this paper, we present a new method for quantitatively comparing the results of dynamic earthquake rupture computer simulation codes.

Crown dynamics and wood production of Douglas-fir trees in an old-growth forest

Treesearch

H. Roaki Ishii; Stephen C. Sillett; Allyson L. Carroll

2017-01-01

Large trees are the most prominent structural features of old-growth forests, which are considered to be globally important carbon sinks. Because of their large size, estimates of biomass and growth of large trees are often based on ground-level measurements (e.g., diameter at breast height, DBH) and little is known about growth dynamics within the crown. As trees...

Fault-slip directions in central and southern Greece measured from striated and corrugated fault planes: Comparison with focal mechanism and geodetic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Gerald P.; Ganas, Athanassios

2000-10-01

Fault-slip directions recorded by outcropping striated and corrugated fault planes in central and southern Greece have been measured for comparison with extension directions derived from focal mechanism and Global Positioning System (GPS) data for the last ˜100 years to test how far back in time velocity fields and deformation dynamics derived from the latter data sets can be extrapolated. The fault-slip data have been collected from the basin-bounding faults to Plio-Pleistocene to recent extensional basins and include data from arrays of footwall faults formed during the early stages of fault growth. We show that the orientation of the inferred stress field varies along faults and earthquake ruptures, so we use only slip-directions from the centers of faults, where dip-slip motion occurs, to constrain regionally significant extension directions. The fault-slip directions for the Peloponnese and Gulfs of Evia and Corinth are statistically different at the 99% confidence level but statistically the same as those implied by earthquake focal mechanisms for each region at the 99% confidence level; they are also qualitatively similar to the principal strain axes derived from GPS studies. Extension directions derived from fault-slip data are 043-047° for the southern Peloponnese, 353° for the Gulf of Corinth, and 015-014° for the Gulf of Evia. Extension on active normal faults in the two latter areas appears to grade into strike-slip along the North Anatolian Fault through a gradual change in fault-slip directions and fault strikes. To reconcile the above with 5° Myr-1 clockwise rotations suggested for the area, we suggest that the faults considered formed during a single phase of extension. The deformation and formation of the normal fault systems examined must have been sufficiently rapid and recent for rotations about vertical axes to have been unable to disperse the fault-slip directions from the extension directions implied by focal mechanisms and GPS data. Thus, in central and southern Greece the velocity fields derived from focal mechanism and GPS data may help explain the dynamics of the deformation over longer time periods than the ˜100 years over which they were measured; this may include the entire deformation history of the fault systems considered, a time period that may exceed 1-2 Myr.

The dynamic forces and moments required in handling tree-length logs.

Treesearch

John A. Sturos

1971-01-01

Realistic dynamic loading requirements for tree- or log-harvesting machines were determined. The study showed that dynamic forces and moments four times as great as those required statically can occur in the field.

A dynamical model for bark beetle outbreaks

Treesearch

Vlastimil Krivan; Mark Lewis; Barbara J. Bentz; Sharon Bewick; Suzanne M. Lenhart; Andrew Liebhold

2016-01-01

Tree-killing bark beetles are major disturbance agents affecting coniferous forest ecosystems. The role of environmental conditions on driving beetle outbreaks is becoming increasingly important as global climatic change alters environmental factors, such as drought stress, that, in turn, govern tree resistance. Furthermore, dynamics between beetles and trees...

Unraveling the dynamics of magmatic CO2 degassing at Mammoth Mountain, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peiffer, Loïc; Wanner, Christoph; Lewicki, Jennifer L.

2018-02-01

The accumulation of magmatic CO2 beneath low-permeability barriers may lead to the formation of CO2-rich gas reservoirs within volcanic systems. Such accumulation is often evidenced by high surface CO2 emissions that fluctuate over time. The temporal variability in surface degassing is believed in part to reflect a complex interplay between deep magmatic degassing and the permeability of degassing pathways. A better understanding of the dynamics of CO2 degassing is required to improve monitoring and hazards mitigation in these systems. Owing to the availability of long-term records of CO2 emissions rates and seismicity, Mammoth Mountain in California constitutes an ideal site towards such predictive understanding. Mammoth Mountain is characterized by intense soil CO2 degassing (up to ∼1000 t d-1) and tree kill areas that resulted from leakage of CO2 from a CO2-rich gas reservoir located in the upper ∼4 km. The release of CO2-rich fluids from deeper basaltic intrusions towards the reservoir induces seismicity and potentially reactivates faults connecting the reservoir to the surface. While this conceptual model is well-accepted, there is still a debate whether temporally variable surface CO2 fluxes directly reflect degassing of intrusions or variations in fault permeability. Here, we report the first large-scale numerical model of fluid and heat transport for Mammoth Mountain. We discuss processes (i) leading to the initial formation of the CO2-rich gas reservoir prior to the occurrence of high surface CO2 degassing rates and (ii) controlling current CO2 degassing at the surface. Although the modeling settings are site-specific, the key mechanisms discussed in this study are likely at play at other volcanic systems hosting CO2-rich gas reservoirs. In particular, our model results illustrate the role of convection in stripping a CO2-rich gas phase from a rising hydrothermal fluid and leading to an accumulation of a large mass of CO2 (∼107-108 t) in a shallow gas reservoir. Moreover, we show that both, short-lived (months to years) and long-lived (hundreds of years) events of magmatic fluid injection can lead to critical pressures within the reservoir and potentially trigger fault reactivation. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that observed temporal fluctuations in surface degassing are only indirectly controlled by variations in magmatic degassing and are mainly the result of temporally variable fault permeability. Finally, we suggest that long-term CO2 emission monitoring, seismic tomography and coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical modeling are important for CO2-related hazard mitigation.

Editorial: Mathematical Methods and Modeling in Machine Fault Diagnosis

DOE PAGES

Yan, Ruqiang; Chen, Xuefeng; Li, Weihua; ...

2014-12-18

Modern mathematics has commonly been utilized as an effective tool to model mechanical equipment so that their dynamic characteristics can be studied analytically. This will help identify potential failures of mechanical equipment by observing change in the equipment’s dynamic parameters. On the other hand, dynamic signals are also important and provide reliable information about the equipment’s working status. Modern mathematics has also provided us with a systematic way to design and implement various signal processing methods, which are used to analyze these dynamic signals, and to enhance intrinsic signal components that are directly related to machine failures. This special issuemore » is aimed at stimulating not only new insights on mathematical methods for modeling but also recently developed signal processing methods, such as sparse decomposition with potential applications in machine fault diagnosis. Finally, the papers included in this special issue provide a glimpse into some of the research and applications in the field of machine fault diagnosis through applications of the modern mathematical methods.« less

3D Dynamic Rupture Simulations along the Wasatch Fault, Utah, Incorporating Rough-fault Topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Withers, Kyle; Moschetti, Morgan

2017-04-01

Studies have found that the Wasatch Fault has experienced successive large magnitude (>Mw 7.2) earthquakes, with an average recurrence interval near 350 years. To date, no large magnitude event has been recorded along the fault, with the last rupture along the Salt Lake City segment occurring 1300 years ago. Because of this, as well as the lack of strong ground motion records in basins and from normal-faulting earthquakes worldwide, seismic hazard in the region is not well constrained. Previous numerical simulations have modeled deterministic ground motion in the heavily populated regions of Utah, near Salt Lake City, but were primarily restricted to low frequencies ( 1 Hz). Our goal is to better assess broadband ground motions from the Wasatch Fault Zone. Here, we extend deterministic ground motion prediction to higher frequencies ( 5 Hz) in this region by using physics-based spontaneous dynamic rupture simulations along a normal fault with characteristics derived from geologic observations. We use a summation by parts finite difference code (Waveqlab3D) with rough-fault topography following a self-similar fractal distribution (over length scales from 100 m to the size of the fault) and include off-fault plasticity to simulate ruptures > Mw 6.5. Geometric complexity along fault planes has previously been shown to generate broadband sources with spectral energy matching that of observations. We investigate the impact of varying the hypocenter location, as well as the influence that multiple realizations of rough-fault topography have on the rupture process and resulting ground motion. We utilize Waveqlab3's computational efficiency to model wave-propagation to a significant distance from the fault with media heterogeneity at both long and short spatial wavelengths. These simulations generate a synthetic dataset of ground motions to compare with GMPEs, in terms of both the median and inter and intraevent variability.

Communications and tracking expert systems study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leibfried, T. F.; Feagin, Terry; Overland, David

1987-01-01

The original objectives of the study consisted of five broad areas of investigation: criteria and issues for explanation of communication and tracking system anomaly detection, isolation, and recovery; data storage simplification issues for fault detection expert systems; data selection procedures for decision tree pruning and optimization to enhance the abstraction of pertinent information for clear explanation; criteria for establishing levels of explanation suited to needs; and analysis of expert system interaction and modularization. Progress was made in all areas, but to a lesser extent in the criteria for establishing levels of explanation suited to needs. Among the types of expert systems studied were those related to anomaly or fault detection, isolation, and recovery.

[Medical Equipment Maintenance Methods].

PubMed

Liu, Hongbin

2015-09-01

Due to the high technology and the complexity of medical equipment, as well as to the safety and effectiveness, it determines the high requirements of the medical equipment maintenance work. This paper introduces some basic methods of medical instrument maintenance, including fault tree analysis, node method and exclusive method which are the three important methods in the medical equipment maintenance, through using these three methods for the instruments that have circuit drawings, hardware breakdown maintenance can be done easily. And this paper introduces the processing methods of some special fault conditions, in order to reduce little detours in meeting the same problems. Learning is very important for stuff just engaged in this area.

Dynamic Rupture Simulations of 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozdon, J. E.; Dunham, E. M.

2012-12-01

There is strong observational evidence that the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture reached the seafloor. This was unexpected because the shallow portion of the plate interface is believed to be frictionally stable and thus not capable of sustaining coseismic rupture. In order to explore this seeming inconsistency we have developed a two-dimensional dynamic rupture model of the Tohoku earthquake. The model uses a complex fault, seafloor, and material interface structure as derived from seismic surveys. We use a rate-and-state friction model with steady state shear strength depending logarithmically on slip velocity, i.e., there is no dynamic weakening in the model. The frictional parameters are depth dependent with the shallowest portions of the fault beneath the accretionary prism being velocity strengthening. The total normal stress on the fault is taken to be lithostatic and the pore pressure is hydrostatic until a maximum effective normal stress is reached (40 MPa in our preferred model) after which point the pore pressure follows the lithostatic gradient. We also account for poroelastic buffering of effective normal stress changes on the fault. The off-fault response is linear elastic. Using this model we find that large stress changes are dynamically transmitted to the shallowest portions of the fault by waves released by deep slip that are reflected off the seafloor. These stress changes are significant enough to drive the rupture through a velocity strengthening region that is tens of kilometers long. Rupture to the trench is therefore consistent with standard assumptions about depth-dependence of subduction zone properties, and does not require extreme dynamic weakening, shallow high stress drop asperities, or other exceptional processes. We also make direct comparisons with measured seafloor deformation and onshore 1-Hz GPS data from the Tohoku earthquake. Through these comparisons we are able to determine the sensitivity of these data to several dynamic source parameters (prestress, seismogenic depth, and the extent and frictional properties of the shallow plate interface). We find that there is a trade-off between the near-trench frictional properties and effective normal stress, particularly for onshore measurements. That is, the data can be equally well fit by either a velocity strengthening or velocity weakening near-trench fault segment, provided that compensating adjustments are also made to the maximum effective normal stress on the fault. On the other hand, the seismogenic depth is fairly well constrained from the static displacement field, independent of effective normal stress and near-trench properties. Finally, we show that a water layer (modeled as an isotropic linear acoustic material) has a negligible effect on the rupture process. That said, the inclusion of a water layer allows us to make important predictions concerning hydroacoustic signals that were observed by ocean bottom pressure sensors.

Rupture directivity and slip distribution of the M 4.3 foreshock to the 1992 Joshua Tree earthquake, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mori, J.

1996-01-01

Details of the M 4.3 foreshock to the Joshua Tree earthquake were studied using P waves recorded on the Southern California Seismic Network and the Anza network. Deconvolution, using an M 2.4 event as an empirical Green's function, corrected for complicated path and site effects in the seismograms and produced simple far-field displacement pulses that were inverted for a slip distribution. Both possible fault planes, north-south and east-west, for the focal mechanism were tested by a least-squares inversion procedure with a range of rupture velocities. The results showed that the foreshock ruptured the north-south plane, similar to the mainshock. The foreshock initiated a few hundred meters south of the mainshock and ruptured to the north, toward the mainshock hypocenter. The mainshock (M 6.1) initiated near the northern edge of the foreshock rupture 2 hr later. The foreshock had a high stress drop (320 to 800 bars) and broke a small portion of the fault adjacent to the mainshock but was not able to immediately initiate the mainshock rupture.

Natural tree regeneration and coarse woody debris dynamics after a forest fire in the western Cascade Range

Treesearch

Martin J. Brown; Jane Kertis; Mark H. Huff

2013-01-01

We monitored coarse woody debris dynamics and natural tree regeneration over a 14-year period after the 1991 Warner Creek Fire, a 3631-ha (8,972-ac) mixed severity fire in the western Cascade Range of Oregon. Rates for tree mortality in the fire, postfire mortality, snag fall, and snag fragmentation all showed distinct patterns by tree diameter and species, with...

Total water storage dynamics derived from tree-ring records and terrestrial gravity observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creutzfeldt, Benjamin; Heinrich, Ingo; Merz, Bruno

2015-10-01

For both societal and ecological reasons, it is important to understand past and future subsurface water dynamics but estimating subsurface water storage is notoriously difficult. In this pilot study, we suggest the reconstruction of subsurface water dynamics by a multi-disciplinary approach combining hydrology, dendrochronology and geodesy. In a first step, nine complete years of high-precision gravimeter observations are used to estimate water storage changes in the subsurface at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell in the Bavarian Forest, Germany. The record is extended to 63 years by calibrating a hydrological model against the 9 years of gravimeter observations. The relationship between tree-ring growth and water storage changes is evaluated as well as that between tree-ring growth and supplementary hydro-meteorological data. Results suggest that tree-ring growth is influenced primarily by subsurface water storage. Other variables related to the overall moisture status (e.g., Standardized Precipitation Index, Palmer Drought Severity Index, streamflow) are also strongly correlated with tree-ring width. While these indices are all indicators of water stored in the landscape, water storage changes of the subsurface estimated by depth-integral measurements give us the unique opportunity to directly reconstruct subsurface water storage dynamics from records of tree-ring width. Such long reconstructions will improve our knowledge of past water storage variations and our ability to predict future developments. Finally, knowing the relationship between subsurface storage dynamics and tree-ring growth improves the understanding of the different signal components contained in tree-ring chronologies.

Coseismic Damage Generation in Fault Zones by Successive High Strain Rate Loading Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aben, F. M.; Doan, M. L.; Renard, F.; Toussaint, R.; Reuschlé, T.; Gratier, J. P.

2014-12-01

Damage zones of active faults control both resistance to rupture and transport properties of the fault. Hence, knowing the rock damage's origin is important to constrain its properties. Here we study experimentally the damage generated by a succession of dynamic loadings, a process mimicking the stress history of a rock sample located next to an active fault. A propagating rupture generates high frequency stress perturbations next to its tip. This dynamic loading creates pervasive damage (pulverization), as multiple fractures initiate and grow simultaneously. Previous single loading experiments have shown a strain rate threshold for pulverization. Here, we focus on conditions below this threshold and the dynamic peak stress to constrain: 1) if there is dynamic fracturing at these conditions and 2) if successive loadings (cumulative seismic events) result in pervasive fracturing, effectively reducing the pulverization threshold to milder conditions. Monzonite samples were dynamically loaded (strain rate > 50 s-1) several times below the dynamic peak strength, using a Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar apparatus. Several quasi-static experiments were conducted as well (strain rate < 10-5-s). Samples loaded up to stresses above the quasi-static uniaxial compressive strength (qsUCS) systematically fragmented or pulverized after four successive loadings. We measured several damage proxies (P-wave velocity, porosity), that show a systematic increase in damage with each load. In addition, micro-computed tomography acquisition on several damage samples revealed the growth of a pervasive fracture network between ensuing loadings. Samples loaded dynamically below the qsUCS failed along one fracture after a variable amount of loadings and damage proxies do not show any a systematic trend. Our conclusions is that milder dynamic loading conditions, below the dynamic peak strength, result in pervasive dynamic fracturing. Also, successive loadings effectively lower the pulverization threshold of the rock. However, the peak loading stress must exceed the qsUCS of the rock, otherwise quasi-static fracturing occurs. Pulverized rocks found in the field are therefore witnesses of previous large earthquakes.

Fault Detection for Automotive Shock Absorber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Alcantara, Diana; Morales-Menendez, Ruben; Amezquita-Brooks, Luis

2015-11-01

Fault detection for automotive semi-active shock absorbers is a challenge due to the non-linear dynamics and the strong influence of the disturbances such as the road profile. First obstacle for this task, is the modeling of the fault, which has been shown to be of multiplicative nature. Many of the most widespread fault detection schemes consider additive faults. Two model-based fault algorithms for semiactive shock absorber are compared: an observer-based approach and a parameter identification approach. The performance of these schemes is validated and compared using a commercial vehicle model that was experimentally validated. Early results shows that a parameter identification approach is more accurate, whereas an observer-based approach is less sensible to parametric uncertainty.

Comprehensive monitoring of Bangladesh tree cover inside and outside of forests, 2000-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potapov, P.; Siddiqui, B. N.; Iqbal, Z.; Aziz, T.; Zzaman, B.; Islam, A.; Pickens, A.; Talero, Y.; Tyukavina, A.; Turubanova, S.; Hansen, M. C.

2017-10-01

A novel approach for satellite-based comprehensive national tree cover change assessment was developed and applied in Bangladesh, a country where trees outside of forests play an important role in the national economy and carbon sequestration. Tree cover change area was quantified using the integration of wall-to-wall Landsat-based mapping with a higher spatial resolution sample-based assessment. The total national tree canopy cover area was estimated as 3165 500 ± 186 600 ha in the year 2000, with trees outside forests making up 54% of total canopy cover. Total tree canopy cover increased by 135 700 (± 116 600) ha (4.3%) during the 2000-2014 time interval. Bangladesh exhibits a national tree cover dynamic where net change is rather small, but gross dynamics significant and variable by forest type. Despite the overall gain in tree cover, results revealed the ongoing clearing of natural forests, especially within the Chittagong hill tracts. While forests decreased their tree cover area by 83 600 ha, the trees outside forests (including tree plantations, village woodlots, and agroforestry) increased their canopy area by 219 300 ha. Our results demonstrated method capability to quantify tree canopy cover dynamics within a fine-scale agricultural landscape. Our approach for comprehensive monitoring of tree canopy cover may be recommended for operational implementation in Bangladesh and other countries with significant tree cover outside of forests.

Faulting and groundwater in a desert environment: constraining hydrogeology using time-domain electromagnetic data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bedrosian, Paul A.; Burgess, Matthew K.; Nishikawa, Tracy

2013-01-01

Within the south-western Mojave Desert, the Joshua Basin Water District is considering applying imported water into infiltration ponds in the Joshua Tree groundwater sub-basin in an attempt to artificially recharge the underlying aquifer. Scarce subsurface hydrogeological data are available near the proposed recharge site; therefore, time-domain electromagnetic (TDEM) data were collected and analysed to characterize the subsurface. TDEM soundings were acquired to estimate the depth to water on either side of the Pinto Mountain Fault, a major east-west trending strike-slip fault that transects the proposed recharge site. While TDEM is a standard technique for groundwater investigations, special care must be taken when acquiring and interpreting TDEM data in a twodimensional (2D) faulted environment. A subset of the TDEM data consistent with a layered-earth interpretation was identified through a combination of three-dimensional (3D) forward modelling and diffusion time-distance estimates. Inverse modelling indicates an offset in water table elevation of nearly 40 m across the fault. These findings imply that the fault acts as a low-permeability barrier to groundwater flow in the vicinity of the proposed recharge site. Existing production wells on the south side of the fault, together with a thick unsaturated zone and permeable near-surface deposits, suggest the southern half of the study area is suitable for artificial recharge. These results illustrate the effectiveness of targeted TDEM in support of hydrological studies in a heavily faulted desert environment where data are scarce and the cost of obtaining these data by conventional drilling techniques is prohibitive.

Materials Physics of Faults in Rapid Shear and Consequences for Earthquake Dynamics (Louis Néel Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, J. R.

2012-04-01

Field observations of maturely slipped faults show that despite a generally broad zone of damage by cracking and granulation, large shear deformation, and therefore heat generation, in individual earthquakes takes place with extreme localization to a zone of order 1 mm or less width within a finely granulated fault core. Relevant fault weakening processes during large crustal events are therefore likely to be thermally influenced, although a constraint to be met, from scarcity of pseudotachylite, is that melting within fault zones seems relatively rare, at least in the up per crust. Further, given the porosit y of damage zones, it seems reasonable to assume in-situ water presence. The lecture reviews current understanding of the materials physics underlying rapid shear of such fault zones, addressing questions like: Why is there severe localization? What are the dynamic relations between shear stress sustained by the fault and its slip history? How do those relations, taken to provide the boundary conditions on a rupturing interface between elastic regions of the earth, control key features of the dynamics of earthquakes? Primary dynamic weakening mechanisms, expected active in at least the early phases of nearly all crustal events, are flash heating at highly stressed frictional micro-contacts and thermal pressurization of native fault-zone pore fluid, the latter with a net effect that depends on interactions with dilatancy. Other weakening processes may also become active at large enough T rise, still prior to bulk melting, including endothermic decomposition reactions releasing a CO2 or H2O fluid phase under conditions that the fluid and solid products would, at the same p and T , occupy more volume than the parent rock, so that the pore fluid is forced to undergo severe pressure increase. The endothermic nature of the reactions buffers against melting because frictional work is absorbed into enthalpy increase of the reactants. There may also be a contribution to the weakening linked to the typically nanoscale range of the solid product phases. The results, applied to modeling of spontaneous slip ruptures, show how faults can be statically strong yet dynamically weak, and operate under low overall driving stress, in a manner that generates negligible heat and meets major seismic constraints on slip, stress drop, and self-healing rupture mode. They also shed light on how fault segments that normally shear stably, so as to not nucleate earthquakes, can nevertheless take part in major events when a high-slip rupture impinges from a bordering segment. The studies reviewed have been done collaboratively with, or draw on the separate insights of, N. Brantut, M. Cocco, E. Dunham, D. Garagash, D. Goldsby, N. Lapusta, H. Noda, J. Platt, A. Rempel, J. Rudnicki, P. Segall, T. Shimamoto, J. Sulem, T. Tullis and I. Vardoulakis.

Source parameters of the 2013 Lushan, Sichuan, Ms7.0 earthquake and estimation of the near-fault strong ground motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.; Zhou, L.; Liu, J.

2013-12-01

Abstract: The April 20, 2013 Ms 7.0 earthquake in Lushan city, Sichuan province of China occurred as the result of east-west oriented reverse-type motion on a north-south striking fault. The source location suggests the event occurred on the Southern part of Longmenshan fault at a depth of 13km. The Lushan earthquake caused a great of loss of property and 196 deaths. The maximum intensity is up to VIII to IX at Boxing and Lushan city, which are located in the meizoseismal area. In this study, we analyzed the dynamic source process and calculated source spectral parameters, estimated the strong ground motion in the near-fault field based on the Brune's circle model at first. A dynamical composite source model (DCSM) has been developed further to simulate the near-fault strong ground motion with associated fault rupture properties at Boxing and Lushan city, respectively. The results indicate that the frictional undershoot behavior in the dynamic source process of Lushan earthquake, which is actually different from the overshoot activity of the Wenchuan earthquake. Based on the simulated results of the near-fault strong ground motion, described the intensity distribution of the Lushan earthquake field. The simulated intensity indicated that, the maximum intensity value is IX, and region with and above VII almost 16,000km2, which is consistence with observation intensity published online by China Earthquake Administration (CEA) on April 25. Moreover, the numerical modeling developed in this study has great application in the strong ground motion prediction and intensity estimation for the earthquake rescue purpose. In fact, the estimation methods based on the empirical relationship and numerical modeling developed in this study has great application in the strong ground motion prediction for the earthquake source process understand purpose. Keywords: Lushan, Ms7.0 earthquake; near-fault strong ground motion; DCSM; simulated intensity

Mechanical Evolution and Dynamics of Decollement Slip in Contractional Systems: Correlating Macro- and Micro-Scale Processes in Particle Dynamics Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, J. K.

2014-12-01

Particle-based numerical simulations allow detailed investigations of small-scale processes and mechanisms associated with fault initiation and slip, which emerge naturally in such models. This study investigates the evolving mechanical conditions and associated micro-mechanisms during transient slip on a weak decollement propagating beneath a growing contractional wedge (e.g., accretionary prism, fold and thrust belt). The models serve as analogs of the seismic cycle, although lacking full earthquake dynamics. Nonetheless, the mechanical evolution of both decollement and upper plate can be monitored, and correlated with the particle-scale physical and contact properties, providing insights into changes that accompany such stick-slip behavior. In this study, particle assemblages consolidated under gravity and bonded to impart cohesion, are pushed at a constant velocity above a weak, unbonded decollement surface. Forward propagation of decollement slip occurs in discrete pulses, modulated by heterogeneous stress conditions (e.g., roughness, contact bridging) along the fault. Passage of decollement slip resets the stress along this horizon, producing distinct patterns: shear stress is enhanced in front of the slipped decollement due to local contact bridging and fault locking; shear stress minima occur immediately above the tip, denoting local stress release and contact reorganization following slip; more mature portions of the fault exhibit intermediate shear stress, reflecting more stable contact force distributions and magnitudes. This pattern of shear stress pre-conditions the decollement for future slip events, which must overcome the high stresses at the fault tip. Long-term slip along the basal decollement induces upper plate contraction. When upper plate stresses reach critical strength conditions, new thrust faults break through the upper plate, relieving stresses and accommodating horizontal shortening. Decollement activity retreats back to the newly formed thrust fault. The cessation of upper plate fault slip causes gradual increases in upper plate stresses, rebuilding shear stresses along the decollement and enabling renewed pulses of decollement slip. Thus, upper plate deformation occurs out of phase with decollement propagation.

Geometry, slip distribution, and kinematics of surface rupture on the Sakarya fault segment during the 17 August 1999 İzmit, Turkey, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langridge, R.M.; Stenner, Heidi D.; Fumal, T.E.; Christofferson, S.A.; Rockwell, T.K.; Hartleb, R.D.; Bachhuber, J.; Barka, A.A.

2002-01-01

The Mw 7.4 17 August 1999 İzmit earthquake ruptured five major fault segments of the dextral North Anatolian Fault Zone. The 26-km-long, N86°W-trending Sakarya fault segment (SFS) extends from the Sapanca releasing step-over in the west to near the town of Akyazi in the east. The SFS emerges from Lake Sapanca as two distinct fault traces that rejoin to traverse the Adapazari Plain to Akyazi. Offsets were measured across 88 cultural and natural features that cross the fault, such as roads, cornfield rows, rows of trees, walls, rails, field margins, ditches, vehicle ruts, a dike, and ground cracks. The maximum displacement observed for the İzmit earthquake (∼5.1 m) was encountered on this segment. Dextral displacement for the SFS rises from less than 1 m at Lake Sapanca to greater than 5 m near Arifiye, only 3 km away. Average slip decreases uniformly to the east from Arifiye until the fault steps left from Sagir to Kazanci to the N75°W, 6-km-long Akyazi strand, where slip drops to less than 1 m. The Akyazi strand passes eastward into the Akyazi Bend, which consists of a high-angle bend (18°-29°) between the Sakarya and Karadere fault segments, a 6-km gap in surface rupture, and high aftershock energy release. Complex structural geometries exist between the İzmit, Düzce, and 1967 Mudurnu fault segments that have arrested surface ruptures on timescales ranging from 30 sec to 88 days to 32 yr. The largest of these step-overs may have acted as a rupture segmentation boundary in previous earthquake cycles.

Certification trails for data structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, Gregory F.; Masson, Gerald M.

1993-01-01

Certification trails are a recently introduced and promising approach to fault detection and fault tolerance. The applicability of the certification trail technique is significantly generalized. Previously, certification trails had to be customized to each algorithm application; trails appropriate to wide classes of algorithms were developed. These certification trails are based on common data-structure operations such as those carried out using these sets of operations such as those carried out using balanced binary trees and heaps. Any algorithms using these sets of operations can therefore employ the certification trail method to achieve software fault tolerance. To exemplify the scope of the generalization of the certification trail technique provided, constructions of trails for abstract data types such as priority queues and union-find structures are given. These trails are applicable to any data-structure implementation of the abstract data type. It is also shown that these ideals lead naturally to monitors for data-structure operations.

Intelligent alarming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braden, W. B.

1992-01-01

This talk discusses the importance of providing a process operator with concise information about a process fault including a root cause diagnosis of the problem, a suggested best action for correcting the fault, and prioritization of the problem set. A decision tree approach is used to illustrate one type of approach for determining the root cause of a problem. Fault detection in several different types of scenarios is addressed, including pump malfunctions and pipeline leaks. The talk stresses the need for a good data rectification strategy and good process models along with a method for presenting the findings to the process operator in a focused and understandable way. A real time expert system is discussed as an effective tool to help provide operators with this type of information. The use of expert systems in the analysis of actual versus predicted results from neural networks and other types of process models is discussed.

Modeling Off-Nominal Behavior in SysML

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Day, John C.; Donahue, Kenneth; Ingham, Michel; Kadesch, Alex; Kennedy, Andrew K.; Post, Ethan

2012-01-01

Specification and development of fault management functionality in systems is performed in an ad hoc way - more of an art than a science. Improvements to system reliability, availability, safety and resilience will be limited without infusion of additional formality into the practice of fault management. Key to the formalization of fault management is a precise representation of off-nominal behavior. Using the upcoming Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission for source material, we have modeled the off-nominal behavior of the SMAP system during its initial spin-up activity, using the System Modeling Language (SysML). In the course of developing these models, we have developed generic patterns for capturing off-nominal behavior in SysML. We show how these patterns provide useful ways of reasoning about the system (e.g., checking for completeness and effectiveness) and allow the automatic generation of typical artifacts (e.g., success trees and FMECAs) used in system analyses.

Intelligent on-line fault tolerant control for unanticipated catastrophic failures.

PubMed

Yen, Gary G; Ho, Liang-Wei

2004-10-01

As dynamic systems become increasingly complex, experience rapidly changing environments, and encounter a greater variety of unexpected component failures, solving the control problems of such systems is a grand challenge for control engineers. Traditional control design techniques are not adequate to cope with these systems, which may suffer from unanticipated dynamic failures. In this research work, we investigate the on-line fault tolerant control problem and propose an intelligent on-line control strategy to handle the desired trajectories tracking problem for systems suffering from various unanticipated catastrophic faults. Through theoretical analysis, the sufficient condition of system stability has been derived and two different on-line control laws have been developed. The approach of the proposed intelligent control strategy is to continuously monitor the system performance and identify what the system's current state is by using a fault detection method based upon our best knowledge of the nominal system and nominal controller. Once a fault is detected, the proposed intelligent controller will adjust its control signal to compensate for the unknown system failure dynamics by using an artificial neural network as an on-line estimator to approximate the unexpected and unknown failure dynamics. The first control law is derived directly from the Lyapunov stability theory, while the second control law is derived based upon the discrete-time sliding mode control technique. Both control laws have been implemented in a variety of failure scenarios to validate the proposed intelligent control scheme. The simulation results, including a three-tank benchmark problem, comply with theoretical analysis and demonstrate a significant improvement in trajectory following performance based upon the proposed intelligent control strategy.

Earthquake fracture energy inferred from kinematic rupture models on extended faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinti, E.; Spudich, P.; Cocco, M.

2005-01-01

We estimate fracture energy on extended faults for several recent earthquakes by retrieving dynamic traction evolution at each point on the fault plane from slip history imaged by inverting ground motion waveforms. We define the breakdown work (Wb) as the excess of work over some minimum traction level achieved during slip. Wb is equivalent to "seismological" fracture energy (G) in previous investigations. Our numerical approach uses slip velocity as a boundary condition on the fault. We employ a three-dimensional finite difference algorithm to compute the dynamic traction evolution in the time domain during the earthquake rupture. We estimate Wb by calculating the scalar product between dynamic traction and slip velocity vectors. This approach does not require specifying a constitutive law and assuming dynamic traction to be collinear with slip velocity. If these vectors are not collinear, the inferred breakdown work depends on the initial traction level. We show that breakdown work depends on the square of slip. The spatial distribution of breakdown work in a single earthquake is strongly correlated with the slip distribution. Breakdown work density and its integral over the fault, breakdown energy, scale with seismic moment according to a power law (with exponent 0.59 and 1.18, respectively). Our estimates of breakdown work range between 4 ?? 105 and 2 ?? 107 J/m2 for earthquakes having moment magnitudes between 5.6 and 7.2. We also compare our inferred values with geologic surface energies. This comparison might suggest that breakdown work for large earthquakes goes primarily into heat production. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Prescribed-performance fault-tolerant control for feedback linearisable systems with an aircraft application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Gang; Wang, Jinzhi; Wang, Xianghua

2017-05-01

This paper investigates fault-tolerant control (FTC) for feedback linearisable systems (FLSs) and its application to an aircraft. To ensure desired transient and steady-state behaviours of the tracking error under actuator faults, the dynamic effect caused by the actuator failures on the error dynamics of a transformed model is analysed, and three control strategies are designed. The first FTC strategy is proposed as a robust controller, which relies on the explicit information about several parameters of the actuator faults. To eliminate the need for these parameters and the input chattering phenomenon, the robust control law is later combined with the adaptive technique to generate the adaptive FTC law. Next, the adaptive control law is further improved to achieve the prescribed performance under more severe input disturbance. Finally, the proposed control laws are applied to an air-breathing hypersonic vehicle (AHV) subject to actuator failures, which confirms the effectiveness of the proposed strategies.

Attempting to bridge the gap between laboratory and seismic estimates of fracture energy

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, A.; Fletcher, Joe B.; Beeler, N.M.

2004-01-01

To investigate the behavior of the fracture energy associated with expanding the rupture zone of an earthquake, we have used the results of a large-scale, biaxial stick-slip friction experiment to set the parameters of an equivalent dynamic rupture model. This model is determined by matching the fault slip, the static stress drop and the apparent stress. After confirming that the fracture energy associated with this model earthquake is in reasonable agreement with corresponding laboratory values, we can use it to determine fracture energies for earthquakes as functions of stress drop, rupture velocity and fault slip. If we take account of the state of stress at seismogenic depths, the model extrapolation to larger fault slips yields fracture energies that agree with independent estimates by others based on dynamic rupture models for large earthquakes. For fixed stress drop and rupture speed, the fracture energy scales linearly with fault slip.

Mantle to Surface Dynamics Across Subduction-Collision Transitions in Space and Time: Results from the CD-CAT Project in Anatolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitney, D. L.; Abgarmi, B.; Beck, S. L.; Brocard, G. Y.; Cosca, M. A.; Darin, M. H.; Delph, J. R.; Hui, H.; Kahraman, M.; Kaymakci, N.; Kuscu, G.; Meijers, M. J.; Mulch, A.; Özacar, A.; Portner, D. E.; Reid, M. R.; Rey, P. F.; Rojay, B.; Schlieffarth, W. K.; Sandvol, E. A.; Schoenbohm, L. M.; Tank, B.; Teoman, U.; Teyssier, C. P.; Thomson, S. N.; Turkelli, N.; Umhoefer, P. J.; Uslular, G.; Willenbring, J. K.

2017-12-01

From west to east, the southern plate boundary of Anatolia varies from subduction to continental collision; plate dynamics are influenced by the interaction of back-arc extension in the west (Aegean) and convergence in the east (Arabia-Eurasia). Prior to 40 Ma, the entire margin was a subduction zone. The NSF project "Continental Dynamics-Central Anatolian Tectonics (CD-CAT)" has contributed to understanding how the mantle, crust, and surface evolve in subduction-to-collision transitions in time and space. Differences are seen in changes in deformation style as collision proceeded; e.g. from distributed across a broad zone to highly localized on a series of oblique-slip faults, and from transpression to transtension (W of the Central Anatolian fault zone, CAFZ) or strike-slip (E of the CAFZ); age, composition, and sources of magmatism, including a magmatic lull from 40-20 Ma, followed by expansion of magmatism SE-ward in central Anatolia; properties and architecture of the lithosphere and sub-lithospheric mantle (e.g. significant and locally abrupt crustal thickness variations, including thick crust under the Tauride Mts; thin to absent lithospheric mantle; and a torn and disaggregating slab that varies from shallow to steep below central Anatolia); and a topographic gradient from a high eastern plateau (> 2 km) to a central plateau (1-1.5 km) bounded to the N and S by mountain ranges that rose > 2 km from the sea between 11-5 Ma, producing a rain shadow in the Anatolian interior. Thermochronologic and structural studies of exhumed mid-crust and associated basins and fault zones as well as geophysical data for Anatolia today show the extent to which inherited features (suture zones, faults) have affected the tectonic evolution of Anatolia, particularly in the vicinity of the CAFZ/East Anatolian Fault, and mantle properties. Results also show that the Miocene was a dynamic time in the thermal and mechanical evolution of the region, as early Miocene rollback/foundering of the subducted slab drove major volcanism, faulting, and landscape changes (uplift). Slab dynamics below Anatolia accelerated the late Miocene-Pliocene transition from distributed to highly localized deformation, including inception of the North and East Anatolia strike-slip faults that today accommodate tectonic escape of Anatolia.

FDI and Accommodation Using NN Based Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, Ramon Ferreiro; de Miguel Catoira, Alberto; Sanz, Beatriz Ferreiro

Massive application of dynamic backpropagation neural networks is used on closed loop control FDI (fault detection and isolation) tasks. The process dynamics is mapped by means of a trained backpropagation NN to be applied on residual generation. Process supervision is then applied to discriminate faults on process sensors, and process plant parameters. A rule based expert system is used to implement the decision making task and the corresponding solution in terms of faults accommodation and/or reconfiguration. Results show an efficient and robust FDI system which could be used as the core of an SCADA or alternatively as a complement supervision tool operating in parallel with the SCADA when applied on a heat exchanger.

Measuring urban tree loss dynamics across residential landscapes.

PubMed

Ossola, Alessandro; Hopton, Matthew E

2018-01-15

The spatial arrangement of urban vegetation depends on urban morphology and socio-economic settings. Urban vegetation changes over time because of human management. Urban trees are removed due to hazard prevention or aesthetic preferences. Previous research attributed tree loss to decreases in canopy cover. However, this provides little information about location and structural characteristics of trees lost, as well as environmental and social factors affecting tree loss dynamics. This is particularly relevant in residential landscapes where access to residential parcels for field surveys is limited. We tested whether multi-temporal airborne LiDAR and multi-spectral imagery collected at a 5-year interval can be used to investigate urban tree loss dynamics across residential landscapes in Denver, CO and Milwaukee, WI, covering 400,705 residential parcels in 444 census tracts. Position and stem height of trees lost were extracted from canopy height models calculated as the difference between final (year 5) and initial (year 0) vegetation height derived from LiDAR. Multivariate regression models were used to predict number and height of tree stems lost in residential parcels in each census tract based on urban morphological and socio-economic variables. A total of 28,427 stems were lost from residential parcels in Denver and Milwaukee over 5years. Overall, 7% of residential parcels lost one stem, averaging 90.87 stems per km 2 . Average stem height was 10.16m, though trees lost in Denver were taller compared to Milwaukee. The number of stems lost was higher in neighborhoods with higher canopy cover and developed before the 1970s. However, socio-economic characteristics had little effect on tree loss dynamics. The study provides a simple method for measuring urban tree loss dynamics within and across entire cities, and represents a further step toward high resolution assessments of the three-dimensional change of urban vegetation at large spatial scales. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Fault detection and diagnosis for gas turbines based on a kernelized information entropy model.

PubMed

Wang, Weiying; Xu, Zhiqiang; Tang, Rui; Li, Shuying; Wu, Wei

2014-01-01

Gas turbines are considered as one kind of the most important devices in power engineering and have been widely used in power generation, airplanes, and naval ships and also in oil drilling platforms. However, they are monitored without man on duty in the most cases. It is highly desirable to develop techniques and systems to remotely monitor their conditions and analyze their faults. In this work, we introduce a remote system for online condition monitoring and fault diagnosis of gas turbine on offshore oil well drilling platforms based on a kernelized information entropy model. Shannon information entropy is generalized for measuring the uniformity of exhaust temperatures, which reflect the overall states of the gas paths of gas turbine. In addition, we also extend the entropy to compute the information quantity of features in kernel spaces, which help to select the informative features for a certain recognition task. Finally, we introduce the information entropy based decision tree algorithm to extract rules from fault samples. The experiments on some real-world data show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

Fault Detection and Diagnosis for Gas Turbines Based on a Kernelized Information Entropy Model

PubMed Central

Wang, Weiying; Xu, Zhiqiang; Tang, Rui; Li, Shuying; Wu, Wei

2014-01-01

Gas turbines are considered as one kind of the most important devices in power engineering and have been widely used in power generation, airplanes, and naval ships and also in oil drilling platforms. However, they are monitored without man on duty in the most cases. It is highly desirable to develop techniques and systems to remotely monitor their conditions and analyze their faults. In this work, we introduce a remote system for online condition monitoring and fault diagnosis of gas turbine on offshore oil well drilling platforms based on a kernelized information entropy model. Shannon information entropy is generalized for measuring the uniformity of exhaust temperatures, which reflect the overall states of the gas paths of gas turbine. In addition, we also extend the entropy to compute the information quantity of features in kernel spaces, which help to select the informative features for a certain recognition task. Finally, we introduce the information entropy based decision tree algorithm to extract rules from fault samples. The experiments on some real-world data show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. PMID:25258726

Dynamic magnification factors for tree blow-down by powder snow avalanche air blasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartelt, Perry; Bebi, Peter; Feistl, Thomas; Buser, Othmar; Caviezel, Andrin

2018-03-01

We study how short duration powder avalanche blasts can break and overturn tall trees. Tree blow-down is often used to back-calculate avalanche pressure and therefore constrain avalanche flow velocity and motion. We find that tall trees are susceptible to avalanche air blasts because the duration of the air blast is near to the period of vibration of tall trees, both in bending and root-plate overturning. Dynamic magnification factors for bending and overturning failures should therefore be considered when back-calculating avalanche impact pressures.

Combining dynamical decoupling with fault-tolerant quantum computation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ng, Hui Khoon; Preskill, John; Lidar, Daniel A.

2011-07-15

We study how dynamical decoupling (DD) pulse sequences can improve the reliability of quantum computers. We prove upper bounds on the accuracy of DD-protected quantum gates and derive sufficient conditions for DD-protected gates to outperform unprotected gates. Under suitable conditions, fault-tolerant quantum circuits constructed from DD-protected gates can tolerate stronger noise and have a lower overhead cost than fault-tolerant circuits constructed from unprotected gates. Our accuracy estimates depend on the dynamics of the bath that couples to the quantum computer and can be expressed either in terms of the operator norm of the bath's Hamiltonian or in terms of themore » power spectrum of bath correlations; we explain in particular how the performance of recursively generated concatenated pulse sequences can be analyzed from either viewpoint. Our results apply to Hamiltonian noise models with limited spatial correlations.« less

An improved low-voltage ride-through performance of DFIG based wind plant using stator dynamic composite fault current limiter.

PubMed

Gayen, P K; Chatterjee, D; Goswami, S K

2016-05-01

In this paper, an enhanced low-voltage ride-through (LVRT) performance of a grid connected doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) has been presented with the usage of stator dynamic composite fault current limiter (SDCFCL). This protection circuit comprises of a suitable series resistor-inductor combination and parallel bidirectional semiconductor switch. The SDCFCL facilitates double benefits such as reduction of rotor induced open circuit voltage due to increased value of stator total inductance and concurrent increase of rotor impedance. Both effects will limit rotor circuit over current and over voltage situation more secured way in comparison to the conventional scheme like the dynamic rotor current limiter (RCL) during any type of fault situation. The proposed concept is validated through the simulation study of the grid integrated 2.0MW DFIG. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using faults for PSHA in a volcanic context: the Etna case (Southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azzaro, Raffaele; D'Amico, Salvatore; Gee, Robin; Pace, Bruno; Peruzza, Laura

2016-04-01

At Mt. Etna volcano (Southern Italy), recurrent volcano-tectonic earthquakes affect the urbanised areas, with an overall population of about 400,000 and with important infrastructures and lifelines. For this reason, seismic hazard analyses have been undertaken in the last decade focusing on the capability of local faults to generate damaging earthquakes especially in the short-term (30-5 yrs); these results have to be intended as complementary to the regulatory seismic hazard maps, and devoted to establish priority in the seismic retrofitting of the exposed municipalities. Starting from past experience, in the framework of the V3 Project funded by the Italian Department of Civil Defense we performed a fully probabilistic seismic hazard assessment by using an original definition of seismic sources and ground-motion prediction equations specifically derived for this volcanic area; calculations are referred to a new brand topographic surface (Mt. Etna reaches more than 3,000 m in elevation, in less than 20 km from the coast), and to both Poissonian and time-dependent occurrence models. We present at first the process of defining seismic sources that includes individual faults, seismic zones and gridded seismicity; they are obtained by integrating geological field data with long-term (the historical macroseismic catalogue) and short-term earthquake data (the instrumental catalogue). The analysis of the Frequency Magnitude Distribution identifies areas in the volcanic complex, with a- and b-values of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship representative of different dynamic processes. Then, we discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults estimated by using a purely geologic approach. This analysis has been carried out through the software code FISH, a Matlab® tool developed to turn fault data representative of the seismogenic process into hazard models. The utilization of a magnitude-size scaling relationship specific for volcanic areas is a key element: the FiSH code may thus calculate the most probable values of characteristic expected magnitude (Mchar) with the associated standard deviation σ, the corresponding mean recurrence times (Tmean) and the aperiodicity factor  for each fault. Finally, we show some results obtained by the OpenQuake-engine by considering a conceptual logic tree model organised in several branches (zone and zoneless, historical and geological rates, Poisson and time-dependent assumptions). Maps are referred to various exposure periods (10% exceeding probability in 30-5 years) and different spectral accelerations. The volcanic region of Mt. Etna represents a perfect lab for fault-based PSHA; the large dataset of input parameters used in the calculations allows testing different methodological approaches and validating some conceptual procedures.

Relationships between acoustic variables and different measures of stiffness in standing Pinus taeda trees

Treesearch

Christian R. Mora; Laurence R. Schimleck; Fikret Isik; Jerry M. Mahon Jr.; Alexander Clark III; Richard F. Daniels

2009-01-01

Acoustic tools are increasingly used to estimate standing-tree (dynamic) stiffness; however, such techniques overestimate static stiffness, the standard measurement for determining modulus of elasticity (MOE) of wood. This study aimed to identify correction methods for standing-tree estimates making dynamic and static stiffness comparable. Sixty Pinus taeda L...

Stress accumulation in the Marmara Sea estimated through ground-motion simulations from dynamic rupture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, Hideo; Douglas, John; Ulrich, Thomas

2017-03-01

We compare ground motions simulated from dynamic rupture scenarios, for the seismic gap along the North Anatolian Fault under the Marmara Sea (Turkey), to estimates from empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Ground motions are simulated using a finite difference method and a 3-D model of the local crustal structure. They are analyzed at more than a thousand locations in terms of horizontal peak ground velocity. Characteristics of probable earthquake scenarios are strongly dependent on the hypothesized level of accumulated stress, in terms of a normalized stress parameter T. With respect to the GMPEs, it is found that simulations for many scenarios systematically overestimate the ground motions at all distances. Simulations for only some scenarios, corresponding to moderate stress accumulation, match the estimates from the GMPEs. The difference between the simulations and the GMPEs is used to quantify the relative probabilities of each scenario and, therefore, to revise the probability of the stress field. A magnitude Mw7+ operating at moderate prestress field (0.6 < T ≤ 0.7) is statistically more probable, as previously assumed in the logic tree of probabilistic assessment of rupture scenarios. This approach of revising the mechanical hypothesis by means of comparison to an empirical statistical model (e.g., a GMPE) is useful not only for practical seismic hazard assessments but also to understand crustal dynamics.

Variability in early height growth rate of forest trees: implications for retrospective studies of stand dynamics

Treesearch

Brain J. Palik; Kurt S. Pregitzer

1995-01-01

Retrospective studies of forest stand dynamics may rely on estimates of tree ages. In some of these studies, trees are aged near the stem base, while in other studies trees may be aged at breast height. An age correction may be added to breast-height ages in an attempt to account for average time to reach breast height and thus provide better estimates of total ages....

Self-organization in leaky threshold systems: The influence of near-mean field dynamics and its implications for earthquakes, neurobiology, and forecasting

PubMed Central

Rundle, J. B.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.; Sá Martins, J. S.

2002-01-01

Threshold systems are known to be some of the most important nonlinear self-organizing systems in nature, including networks of earthquake faults, neural networks, superconductors and semiconductors, and the World Wide Web, as well as political, social, and ecological systems. All of these systems have dynamics that are strongly correlated in space and time, and all typically display a multiplicity of spatial and temporal scales. Here we discuss the physics of self-organization in earthquake threshold systems at two distinct scales: (i) The “microscopic” laboratory scale, in which consideration of results from simulations leads to dynamical equations that can be used to derive the results obtained from sliding friction experiments, and (ii) the “macroscopic” earthquake fault-system scale, in which the physics of strongly correlated earthquake fault systems can be understood by using time-dependent state vectors defined in a Hilbert space of eigenstates, similar in many respects to the mathematics of quantum mechanics. In all of these systems, long-range interactions induce the existence of locally ergodic dynamics. The existence of dissipative effects leads to the appearance of a “leaky threshold” dynamics, equivalent to a new scaling field that controls the size of nucleation events relative to the size of background fluctuations. At the macroscopic earthquake fault-system scale, these ideas show considerable promise as a means of forecasting future earthquake activity. PMID:11875204

Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gülerce, Zeynep; Buğra Soyman, Kadir; Güner, Barış; Kaymakci, Nuretdin

2017-12-01

This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

Constraint Embedding Technique for Multibody System Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woo, Simon S.; Cheng, Michael K.

2011-01-01

Multibody dynamics play a critical role in simulation testbeds for space missions. There has been a considerable interest in the development of efficient computational algorithms for solving the dynamics of multibody systems. Mass matrix factorization and inversion techniques and the O(N) class of forward dynamics algorithms developed using a spatial operator algebra stand out as important breakthrough on this front. Techniques such as these provide the efficient algorithms and methods for the application and implementation of such multibody dynamics models. However, these methods are limited only to tree-topology multibody systems. Closed-chain topology systems require different techniques that are not as efficient or as broad as those for tree-topology systems. The closed-chain forward dynamics approach consists of treating the closed-chain topology as a tree-topology system subject to additional closure constraints. The resulting forward dynamics solution consists of: (a) ignoring the closure constraints and using the O(N) algorithm to solve for the free unconstrained accelerations for the system; (b) using the tree-topology solution to compute a correction force to enforce the closure constraints; and (c) correcting the unconstrained accelerations with correction accelerations resulting from the correction forces. This constraint-embedding technique shows how to use direct embedding to eliminate local closure-loops in the system and effectively convert the system back to a tree-topology system. At this point, standard tree-topology techniques can be brought to bear on the problem. The approach uses a spatial operator algebra approach to formulating the equations of motion. The operators are block-partitioned around the local body subgroups to convert them into aggregate bodies. Mass matrix operator factorization and inversion techniques are applied to the reformulated tree-topology system. Thus in essence, the new technique allows conversion of a system with closure-constraints into an equivalent tree-topology system, and thus allows one to take advantage of the host of techniques available to the latter class of systems. This technology is highly suitable for the class of multibody systems where the closure-constraints are local, i.e., where they are confined to small groupings of bodies within the system. Important examples of such local closure-constraints are constraints associated with four-bar linkages, geared motors, differential suspensions, etc. One can eliminate these closure-constraints and convert the system into a tree-topology system by embedding the constraints directly into the system dynamics and effectively replacing the body groupings with virtual aggregate bodies. Once eliminated, one can apply the well-known results and algorithms for tree-topology systems to solve the dynamics of such closed-chain system.

Temperatures and cooling rates recorded in REE in coexisting pyroxenes in ophiolitic and abyssal peridotites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dygert, Nick; Liang, Yan

2015-06-01

Mantle peridotites from ophiolites are commonly interpreted as having mid-ocean ridge (MOR) or supra-subduction zone (SSZ) affinity. Recently, an REE-in-two-pyroxene thermometer was developed (Liang et al., 2013) that has higher closure temperatures (designated as TREE) than major element based two-pyroxene thermometers for mafic and ultramafic rocks that experienced cooling. The REE-in-two-pyroxene thermometer has the potential to extract meaningful cooling rates from ophiolitic peridotites and thus shed new light on the thermal history of the different tectonic regimes. We calculated TREE for available literature data from abyssal peridotites, subcontinental (SC) peridotites, and ophiolites around the world (Alps, Coast Range, Corsica, New Caledonia, Oman, Othris, Puerto Rico, Russia, and Turkey), and augmented the data with new measurements for peridotites from the Trinity and Josephine ophiolites and the Mariana trench. TREE are compared to major element based thermometers, including the two-pyroxene thermometer of Brey and Köhler (1990) (TBKN). Samples with SC affinity have TREE and TBKN in good agreement. Samples with MOR and SSZ affinity have near-solidus TREE but TBKN hundreds of degrees lower. Closure temperatures for REE and Fe-Mg in pyroxenes were calculated to compare cooling rates among abyssal peridotites, MOR ophiolites, and SSZ ophiolites. Abyssal peridotites appear to cool more rapidly than peridotites from most ophiolites. On average, SSZ ophiolites have lower closure temperatures than abyssal peridotites and many ophiolites with MOR affinity. We propose that these lower temperatures can be attributed to the residence time in the cooling oceanic lithosphere prior to obduction. MOR ophiolites define a continuum spanning cooling rates from SSZ ophiolites to abyssal peridotites. Consistent high closure temperatures for abyssal peridotites and the Oman and Corsica ophiolites suggests hydrothermal circulation and/or rapid cooling events (e.g., normal faulting, unroofing) control the late thermal histories of peridotites from transform faults and slow and fast spreading centers with or without a crustal section.

Coseismic fault slip associated with the 1992 M(sub w) 6.1 Joshua Tree, California, earthquake: Implications for the Joshua Tree-Landers earthquake sequence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bennett, Richard A.; Reilinger, Robert E.; Rodi, William; Li, Yingping; Toksoz, M. Nafi; Hudnut, Ken

1995-01-01

Coseismic surface deformation associated with the M(sub w) 6.1, April 23, 1992, Joshua Tree earthquake is well represented by estimates of geodetic monument displacements at 20 locations independently derived from Global Positioning System and trilateration measurements. The rms signal to noise ratio for these inferred displacements is 1.8 with near-fault displacement estimates exceeding 40 mm. In order to determine the long-wavelength distribution of slip over the plane of rupture, a Tikhonov regularization operator is applied to these estimates which minimizes stress variability subject to purely right-lateral slip and zero surface slip constraints. The resulting slip distribution yields a geodetic moment estimate of 1.7 x 10(exp 18) N m with corresponding maximum slip around 0.8 m and compares well with independent and complementary information including seismic moment and source time function estimates and main shock and aftershock locations. From empirical Green's functions analyses, a rupture duration of 5 s is obtained which implies a rupture radius of 6-8 km. Most of the inferred slip lies to the north of the hypocenter, consistent with northward rupture propagation. Stress drop estimates are in the range of 2-4 MPa. In addition, predicted Coulomb stress increases correlate remarkably well with the distribution of aftershock hypocenters; most of the aftershocks occur in areas for which the mainshock rupture produced stress increases larger than about 0.1 MPa. In contrast, predicted stress changes are near zero at the hypocenter of the M(sub w) 7.3, June 28, 1992, Landers earthquake which nucleated about 20 km beyond the northernmost edge of the Joshua Tree rupture. Based on aftershock migrations and the predicted static stress field, we speculate that redistribution of Joshua Tree-induced stress perturbations played a role in the spatio-temporal development of the earth sequence culminating in the Landers event.

Seismicity rate changes along the central California coast due to stress changes from the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon and 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aron, A.; Hardebeck, J.L.

2009-01-01

We investigated the relationship between seismicity rate changes and modeled Coulomb static stress changes from the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon and the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquakes in central California. Coulomb stress modeling indicates that the San Simeon mainshock loaded parts of the Rinconada, Hosgri, and San Andreas strike-slip faults, along with the reverse faults of the southern Los Osos domain. All of these loaded faults, except for the San Andreas, experienced a seismicity rate increase at the time of the San Simeon mainshock. The Parkfield earthquake occurred 9 months later on the loaded portion of the San Andreas fault. The Parkfield earthquake unloaded the Hosgri fault and the reverse faults of the southern Los Osos domain, which both experienced seismicity rate decreases at the time of the Parkfield event, although the decreases may be related to the decay of San Simeon-triggered seismicity. Coulomb stress unloading from the Parkfield earthquake appears to have altered the aftershock decay rate of the southern cluster of San Simeon after-shocks, which is deficient compared to the expected number of aftershocks from the Omori decay parameters based on the pre-Parkfield aftershocks. Dynamic stress changes cannot explain the deficiency of aftershocks, providing evidence that static stress changes affect earthquake occurrence. However, a burst of seismicity following the Parkfield earthquake at Ragged Point, where the static stress was decreased, provides evidence for dynamic stress triggering. It therefore appears that both Coulomb static stress changes and dynamic stress changes affect the seismicity rate.

Strong carrier localization in stacking faults in semipolar (11-22) GaN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okur, Serdal; Monavarian, Morteza; Das, Saikat; Izyumskaya, Natalia; Zhang, Fan; Avrutin, Vitaliy; Morkoç, Hadis; Özgür, Ümit

2015-03-01

The effects of stacking faults (SFs) on optical processes in epitaxially grown semipolar (1122) GaN on m-sapphire substrate have been investigated in detail using steady-state photoluminescence (PL) and time- and polarization-resolved PL. We demonstrate that the carrier recombination dynamics are substantially influenced due to strong carrier localization in the stacking faults. In addition to nonradiative recombination, carrier trapping/detrapping and carrier transfer between the stacking faults and donors are also found to be among the mechanisms affecting the recombination dynamics at different temperatures. PL decay times of both I1-type BSF and 3.31 eV SF (E-type BSF or prismatic stacking fault) do not show temperature dependence up to 80 K while 3.31 eV SF exhibits longer PL decay times (~3 ns) at low temperatures as compared to I1-type BSF (~1 ns), indicative of lower efficiency for radiative recombination. After 80 K, PL decay times decreased by power of ~-1 and ~-2 for 3.31 eV SF and I1-type BSF, respectively. It is obtained from radiative decay times with respect to temperature that the carrier localization becomes higher in I1-type BSF compared to 3.31 eV SF increasing the temperature. I1-type BSF also shows higher PL intensity, which is attributed to larger density, and therefore, larger contribution to recombination dynamics as compared to other type of stacking faults. Polarization-resolved PL measurements also revealed that the degree of polarization for the I1-type BSF (0.30) was twice that for the 3.31 eV SF.

Coseismic stresses indicated by pseudotachylytes in the Outer Hebrides Fault Zone, UK.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, Lucy; Lloyd, Geoffrey; Phillips, Richard; Holdsworth, Robert; Walcott, Rachel

2015-04-01

During the few seconds of earthquake slip, dynamic behaviour is predicted for stress, slip velocity, friction and temperature, amongst other properties. Fault-derived pseudotachylyte is a coseismic frictional melt and provides a unique snapshot of the rupture environment. Exhumation of ancient fault zones to seismogenic depths can reveal the structure and distribution of seismic slip as pseudotachylyte bearing fault planes. An example lies in NW Scotland along the Outer Hebrides Fault Zone (OHFZ) - this long-lived fault zone displays a suite of fault rocks developed under evolving kinematic regimes, including widespread pseudotachylyte veining which is distributed both on and away from the major faults. This study adds data derived from the OHFZ pseudotachylytes to published datasets from well-constrained fault zones, in order to explore the use of existing methodologies on more complex faults and to compare the calculated results. Temperature, stress and pressure are calculated from individual fault veins and added to existing datasets. The results pose questions on the physical meaning of the derived trends, the distribution of seismic energy release across scattered cm-scale faults and the range of earthquake magnitudes calculated from faults across any given fault zone.

Simulation-driven machine learning: Bearing fault classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobie, Cameron; Freitas, Carina; Nicolai, Mike

2018-01-01

Increasing the accuracy of mechanical fault detection has the potential to improve system safety and economic performance by minimizing scheduled maintenance and the probability of unexpected system failure. Advances in computational performance have enabled the application of machine learning algorithms across numerous applications including condition monitoring and failure detection. Past applications of machine learning to physical failure have relied explicitly on historical data, which limits the feasibility of this approach to in-service components with extended service histories. Furthermore, recorded failure data is often only valid for the specific circumstances and components for which it was collected. This work directly addresses these challenges for roller bearings with race faults by generating training data using information gained from high resolution simulations of roller bearing dynamics, which is used to train machine learning algorithms that are then validated against four experimental datasets. Several different machine learning methodologies are compared starting from well-established statistical feature-based methods to convolutional neural networks, and a novel application of dynamic time warping (DTW) to bearing fault classification is proposed as a robust, parameter free method for race fault detection.

Power maximization of variable-speed variable-pitch wind turbines using passive adaptive neural fault tolerant control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habibi, Hamed; Rahimi Nohooji, Hamed; Howard, Ian

2017-09-01

Power maximization has always been a practical consideration in wind turbines. The question of how to address optimal power capture, especially when the system dynamics are nonlinear and the actuators are subject to unknown faults, is significant. This paper studies the control methodology for variable-speed variable-pitch wind turbines including the effects of uncertain nonlinear dynamics, system fault uncertainties, and unknown external disturbances. The nonlinear model of the wind turbine is presented, and the problem of maximizing extracted energy is formulated by designing the optimal desired states. With the known system, a model-based nonlinear controller is designed; then, to handle uncertainties, the unknown nonlinearities of the wind turbine are estimated by utilizing radial basis function neural networks. The adaptive neural fault tolerant control is designed passively to be robust on model uncertainties, disturbances including wind speed and model noises, and completely unknown actuator faults including generator torque and pitch actuator torque. The Lyapunov direct method is employed to prove that the closed-loop system is uniformly bounded. Simulation studies are performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Dynamic Fault Detection Chassis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mize, Jeffery J

2007-01-01

Abstract The high frequency switching megawatt-class High Voltage Converter Modulator (HVCM) developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) is now in operation. One of the major problems with the modulator systems is shoot-thru conditions that can occur in a IGBTs H-bridge topology resulting in large fault currents and device failure in a few microseconds. The Dynamic Fault Detection Chassis (DFDC) is a fault monitoring system; it monitors transformer flux saturation using a window comparator and dV/dt events on the cathode voltage caused by any abnormality such as capacitor breakdown, transformer primarymore » turns shorts, or dielectric breakdown between the transformer primary and secondary. If faults are detected, the DFDC will inhibit the IGBT gate drives and shut the system down, significantly reducing the possibility of a shoot-thru condition or other equipment damaging events. In this paper, we will present system integration considerations, performance characteristics of the DFDC, and discuss its ability to significantly reduce costly down time for the entire facility.« less

Sliding Mode Approaches for Robust Control, State Estimation, Secure Communication, and Fault Diagnosis in Nuclear Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ablay, Gunyaz

Using traditional control methods for controller design, parameter estimation and fault diagnosis may lead to poor results with nuclear systems in practice because of approximations and uncertainties in the system models used, possibly resulting in unexpected plant unavailability. This experience has led to an interest in development of robust control, estimation and fault diagnosis methods. One particularly robust approach is the sliding mode control methodology. Sliding mode approaches have been of great interest and importance in industry and engineering in the recent decades due to their potential for producing economic, safe and reliable designs. In order to utilize these advantages, sliding mode approaches are implemented for robust control, state estimation, secure communication and fault diagnosis in nuclear plant systems. In addition, a sliding mode output observer is developed for fault diagnosis in dynamical systems. To validate the effectiveness of the methodologies, several nuclear plant system models are considered for applications, including point reactor kinetics, xenon concentration dynamics, an uncertain pressurizer model, a U-tube steam generator model and a coupled nonlinear nuclear reactor model.

Half-century evidence from western Canada shows forest dynamics are primarily driven by competition followed by climate

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jian; Huang, Shongming; He, Fangliang

2015-01-01

Tree mortality, growth, and recruitment are essential components of forest dynamics and resiliency, for which there is great concern as climate change progresses at high latitudes. Tree mortality has been observed to increase over the past decades in many regions, but the causes of this increase are not well understood, and we know even less about long-term changes in growth and recruitment rates. Using a dataset of long-term (1958–2009) observations on 1,680 permanent sample plots from undisturbed natural forests in western Canada, we found that tree demographic rates have changed markedly over the last five decades. We observed a widespread, significant increase in tree mortality, a significant decrease in tree growth, and a similar but weaker trend of decreasing recruitment. However, these changes varied widely across tree size, forest age, ecozones, and species. We found that competition was the primary factor causing the long-term changes in tree mortality, growth, and recruitment. Regional climate had a weaker yet still significant effect on tree mortality, but little effect on tree growth and recruitment. This finding suggests that internal community-level processes—more so than external climatic factors—are driving forest dynamics. PMID:25775576

Half-century evidence from western Canada shows forest dynamics are primarily driven by competition followed by climate.

PubMed

Zhang, Jian; Huang, Shongming; He, Fangliang

2015-03-31

Tree mortality, growth, and recruitment are essential components of forest dynamics and resiliency, for which there is great concern as climate change progresses at high latitudes. Tree mortality has been observed to increase over the past decades in many regions, but the causes of this increase are not well understood, and we know even less about long-term changes in growth and recruitment rates. Using a dataset of long-term (1958-2009) observations on 1,680 permanent sample plots from undisturbed natural forests in western Canada, we found that tree demographic rates have changed markedly over the last five decades. We observed a widespread, significant increase in tree mortality, a significant decrease in tree growth, and a similar but weaker trend of decreasing recruitment. However, these changes varied widely across tree size, forest age, ecozones, and species. We found that competition was the primary factor causing the long-term changes in tree mortality, growth, and recruitment. Regional climate had a weaker yet still significant effect on tree mortality, but little effect on tree growth and recruitment. This finding suggests that internal community-level processes-more so than external climatic factors-are driving forest dynamics.

Fault Detection and Correction for the Solar Dynamics Observatory Attitude Control System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starin, Scott R.; Vess, Melissa F.; Kenney, Thomas M.; Maldonado, Manuel D.; Morgenstern, Wendy M.

2007-01-01

The Solar Dynamics Observatory is an Explorer-class mission that will launch in early 2009. The spacecraft will operate in a geosynchronous orbit, sending data 24 hours a day to a devoted ground station in White Sands, New Mexico. It will carry a suite of instruments designed to observe the Sun in multiple wavelengths at unprecedented resolution. The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly includes four telescopes with focal plane CCDs that can image the full solar disk in four different visible wavelengths. The Extreme-ultraviolet Variability Experiment will collect time-correlated data on the activity of the Sun's corona. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager will enable study of pressure waves moving through the body of the Sun. The attitude control system on Solar Dynamics Observatory is responsible for four main phases of activity. The physical safety of the spacecraft after separation must be guaranteed. Fine attitude determination and control must be sufficient for instrument calibration maneuvers. The mission science mode requires 2-arcsecond control according to error signals provided by guide telescopes on the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly, one of the three instruments to be carried. Lastly, accurate execution of linear and angular momentum changes to the spacecraft must be provided for momentum management and orbit maintenance. In thsp aper, single-fault tolerant fault detection and correction of the Solar Dynamics Observatory attitude control system is described. The attitude control hardware suite for the mission is catalogued, with special attention to redundancy at the hardware level. Four reaction wheels are used where any three are satisfactory. Four pairs of redundant thrusters are employed for orbit change maneuvers and momentum management. Three two-axis gyroscopes provide full redundancy for rate sensing. A digital Sun sensor and two autonomous star trackers provide two-out-of-three redundancy for fine attitude determination. The use of software to maximize chances of recovery from any hardware or software fault is detailed. A generic fault detection and correction software structure is used, allowing additions, deletions, and adjustments to fault detection and correction rules. This software structure is fed by in-line fault tests that are also able to take appropriate actions to avoid corruption of the data stream.

S-wave triggering of tremor beneath the Parkfield, California, section of the San Andreas fault by the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake: observations and theory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, David P.; Peng, Zhigang; Shelly, David R.; Aiken, Chastity

2013-01-01

The dynamic stresses that are associated with the energetic seismic waves generated by the Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake off the northeast coast of Japan triggered bursts of tectonic tremor beneath the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault (SAF) at an epicentral distance of ∼8200  km. The onset of tremor begins midway through the ∼100‐s‐period S‐wave arrival, with a minor burst coinciding with the SHSH arrival, as recorded on the nearby broadband seismic station PKD. A more pronounced burst coincides with the Love arrival, followed by a series of impulsive tremor bursts apparently modulated by the 20‐ to 30‐s‐period Rayleigh wave. The triggered tremor was located at depths between 20 and 30 km beneath the surface trace of the fault, with the burst coincident with the S wave centered beneath the fault 30 km northwest of Parkfield. Most of the subsequent activity, including the tremor coincident with the SHSH arrival, was concentrated beneath a stretch of the fault extending from 10 to 40 km southeast of Parkfield. The seismic waves from the Tohoku epicenter form a horizontal incidence angle of ∼14°, with respect to the local strike of the SAF. Computed peak dynamic Coulomb stresses on the fault at tremor depths are in the 0.7–10 kPa range. The apparent modulation of tremor bursts by the small, strike‐parallel Rayleigh‐wave stresses (∼0.7  kPa) is likely enabled by pore pressure variations driven by the Rayleigh‐wave dilatational stress. These results are consistent with the strike‐parallel dynamic stresses (δτs) associated with the S, SHSH, and surface‐wave phases triggering small increments of dextral slip on the fault with a low friction (μ∼0.2). The vertical dynamic stresses δτd do not trigger tremor with vertical or oblique slip under this simple Coulomb failure model.

3-D dynamic rupture simulations of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Yumi; Yoshida, Keisuke; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Kubo, Hisahiko

2017-11-01

Using 3-D dynamic rupture simulations, we investigated the 2016 Mw7.1 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake to elucidate why and how the rupture of the main shock propagated successfully, assuming a complicated fault geometry estimated on the basis of the distributions of the aftershocks. The Mw7.1 main shock occurred along the Futagawa and Hinagu faults. Within 28 h before the main shock, three M6-class foreshocks occurred. Their hypocenters were located along the Hinagu and Futagawa faults, and their focal mechanisms were similar to that of the main shock. Therefore, an extensive stress shadow should have been generated on the fault plane of the main shock. First, we estimated the geometry of the fault planes of the three foreshocks as well as that of the main shock based on the temporal evolution of the relocated aftershock hypocenters. We then evaluated the static stress changes on the main shock fault plane that were due to the occurrence of the three foreshocks, assuming elliptical cracks with constant stress drops on the estimated fault planes. The obtained static stress change distribution indicated that Coulomb failure stress change (ΔCFS) was positive just below the hypocenter of the main shock, while the ΔCFS in the shallow region above the hypocenter was negative. Therefore, these foreshocks could encourage the initiation of the main shock rupture and could hinder the propagation of the rupture toward the shallow region. Finally, we conducted 3-D dynamic rupture simulations of the main shock using the initial stress distribution, which was the sum of the static stress changes caused by these foreshocks and the regional stress field. Assuming a slip-weakening law with uniform friction parameters, we computed 3-D dynamic rupture by varying the friction parameters and the values of the principal stresses. We obtained feasible parameter ranges that could reproduce the characteristic features of the main shock rupture revealed by seismic waveform analyses. We also observed that the free surface encouraged the slip evolution of the main shock.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Earthquake signatures from fast slip and dynamic fracture propagation: state of the art

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffith, W. A.; Rowe, C. D.

2014-12-01

Earthquakes are dynamic slip events that propagate along fault surfaces, radiating seismic waves. The majority of energy released is expended in heating and breaking of rocks along the fault. The fracture damage is linked to transient stress conditions at the rupture tip which only exist during dynamic slip, while the frictional heating depends on high velocity slip behind the rupture tip to generate heat energy faster than it can be dissipated, causing transient local temperature rise. One might think that extensive damage and alteration would result, creating an unambiguous geological fingerprint, but in fact, there are few unequivocal indicators for past seismic slip. In 1999, the rare fault rock pseudotachylyte (melt formed when frictional heating exceeds the solidus) was the only accepted evidence (Cowan, 1999). Recently, more indicators of fossilized earthquakes have been proposed. We define "evidence of past earthquakes" as evidence of either fast fault slip (at rates that only occur during earthquakes) or evidence of the propagation of dynamic rupture. We first summarize advances made in identifying evidence in the rock record of fast slip. Much of the work during the past 15 years has focused on integrating carefully controlled laboratory friction experiments, and constraints from numerical modeling, with field observations in an attempt to re-create structures observed in fault rocks and then relate these to the specific boundary conditions required to form them in the laboratory. This approach has yielded a number of advances in identifying textures and geochemical signatures diagnostic of fast slip via temperature rises which may not reach the bulk melting temperature of the fault rocks. Next, we focus on damage near the tip of shear ruptures propagating at velocities characteristic of earthquakes, an approach which has received less attention in the geological literature than fast slip but is equally diagnostic. Finally, we try to frame some of the remaining challenges in this field. These challenges include future work on diagnostic features of earthquake deformation along faults, but also a more philosophical discussion of what an earthquake actually is.

Dynamic fracture network around faults: implications for earthquake ruptures, ground motion and energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okubo, K.; Bhat, H. S.; Rougier, E.; Lei, Z.; Knight, E. E.; Klinger, Y.

2017-12-01

Numerous studies have suggested that spontaneous earthquake ruptures can dynamically induce failure in secondary fracture network, regarded as damage zone around faults. The feedbacks of such fracture network play a crucial role in earthquake rupture, its radiated wave field and the total energy budget. A novel numerical modeling tool based on the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM), which accounts for the main rupture propagation and nucleation/propagation of secondary cracks, was used to quantify the evolution of the fracture network and evaluate its effects on the main rupture and its associated radiation. The simulations were performed with the FDEM-based software tool, Hybrid Optimization Software Suite (HOSSedu) developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory. We first modeled an earthquake rupture on a planar strike-slip fault surrounded by a brittle medium where secondary cracks can be nucleated/activated by the earthquake rupture. We show that the secondary cracks are dynamically generated dominantly on the extensional side of the fault, mainly behind the rupture front, and it forms an intricate network of fractures in the damage zone. The rupture velocity thereby significantly decreases, by 10 to 20 percent, while the supershear transition length increases in comparison to the one with purely elastic medium. It is also observed that the high-frequency component (10 to 100 Hz) of the near-field ground acceleration is enhanced by the dynamically activated fracture network, consistent with field observations. We then conducted the case study in depth with various sets of initial stress state, and friction properties, to investigate the evolution of damage zone. We show that the width of damage zone decreases in depth, forming "flower-like" structure as the characteristic slip distance in linear slip-weakening law, or the fracture energy on the fault, is kept constant with depth. Finally, we compared the fracture energy on the fault to the energy absorbed by the secondary fracture network to better understand the earthquake energy budget. We conclude that the secondary fracture network plays an important role on the dynamic earthquake rupture, its radiated wave field and the overall energy budget.

Crustal dynamics studies in China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, F. T.

1985-01-01

Geodynamics of Mainland China and Taiwan are discussed. The following research was performed: (1) the tectonics along the Tanlu fault in eastern China; (2) tectonics in the Taiwan Strait behind the collision zone in Taiwan; and (3) analysis of faulting in the vicinity of the Altyn Tagn fault. It is found that the existence of the fault is traced back to at least Jurassic with the deposition of conglomerate sandstones in the troungh along the present Tanlu fault branches in the Shantung Province. Taiwan is the product of collision between the Phillipine plate and the Asian plate and Taiwan came into being because of a former island arc.

SOM neural network fault diagnosis method of polymerization kettle equipment optimized by improved PSO algorithm.

PubMed

Wang, Jie-sheng; Li, Shu-xia; Gao, Jie

2014-01-01

For meeting the real-time fault diagnosis and the optimization monitoring requirements of the polymerization kettle in the polyvinyl chloride resin (PVC) production process, a fault diagnosis strategy based on the self-organizing map (SOM) neural network is proposed. Firstly, a mapping between the polymerization process data and the fault pattern is established by analyzing the production technology of polymerization kettle equipment. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm with a new dynamical adjustment method of inertial weights is adopted to optimize the structural parameters of SOM neural network. The fault pattern classification of the polymerization kettle equipment is to realize the nonlinear mapping from symptom set to fault set according to the given symptom set. Finally, the simulation experiments of fault diagnosis are conducted by combining with the industrial on-site historical data of the polymerization kettle and the simulation results show that the proposed PSO-SOM fault diagnosis strategy is effective.

Missing link between the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults

PubMed Central

Watt, Janet; Ponce, David; Parsons, Tom; Hart, Patrick

2016-01-01

The next major earthquake to strike the ~7 million residents of the San Francisco Bay Area will most likely result from rupture of the Hayward or Rodgers Creek faults. Until now, the relationship between these two faults beneath San Pablo Bay has been a mystery. Detailed subsurface imaging provides definitive evidence of active faulting along the Hayward fault as it traverses San Pablo Bay and bends ~10° to the right toward the Rodgers Creek fault. Integrated geophysical interpretation and kinematic modeling show that the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults are directly connected at the surface—a geometric relationship that has significant implications for earthquake dynamics and seismic hazard. A direct link enables simultaneous rupture of the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults, a scenario that could result in a major earthquake (M = 7.4) that would cause extensive damage and loss of life with global economic impact. PMID:27774514

Missing link between the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watt, Janet; Ponce, David A.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Hart, Patrick E.

2016-01-01

The next major earthquake to strike the ~7 million residents of the San Francisco Bay Area will most likely result from rupture of the Hayward or Rodgers Creek faults. Until now, the relationship between these two faults beneath San Pablo Bay has been a mystery. Detailed subsurface imaging provides definitive evidence of active faulting along the Hayward fault as it traverses San Pablo Bay and bends ~10° to the right toward the Rodgers Creek fault. Integrated geophysical interpretation and kinematic modeling show that the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults are directly connected at the surface—a geometric relationship that has significant implications for earthquake dynamics and seismic hazard. A direct link enables simultaneous rupture of the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults, a scenario that could result in a major earthquake (M = 7.4) that would cause extensive damage and loss of life with global economic impact.

Observed source parameters for dynamic rupture with non-uniform initial stressand relatively high fracture energy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beeler, Nicholas M.; Kilgore, Brian D.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Fletcher, Jon Peter B.; Evans, John R.; Steven R. Baker,

2012-01-01

We have conducted dynamic rupture propagation experiments to establish the relations between in-source stress drop, fracture energy and the resulting particle velocity during slip of an unconfined 2 m long laboratory fault at normal stresses between 4 and 8 MPa. To produce high fracture energy in the source we use a rough fault that has a large slip weakening distance. An artifact of the high fracture energy is that the nucleation zone is large such that precursory slip reduces fault strength over a large fraction of the total fault length prior to dynamic rupture, making the initial stress non-uniform. Shear stress, particle velocity, fault slip and acceleration were recorded coseismically at multiple locations along strike and at small fault-normal distances. Stress drop increases weakly with normal stress. Average slip rate depends linearly on the fault strength loss and on static stress drop, both with a nonzero intercept. A minimum fracture energy of 1.8 J/m2 and a linear slip weakening distance of 33 μm are inferred from the intercept. The large slip weakening distance also affects the average slip rate which is reduced by in-source energy dissipation from on-fault fracture energy.Because of the low normal stress and small per event slip (∼86 μm), no thermal weakening such as melting or pore fluid pressurization occurs in these experiments. Despite the relatively high fracture energy, and the very low heat production, energy partitioning during these laboratory earthquakes is very similar to typical earthquake source properties. The product of fracture energy and fault area is larger than the radiated energy. Seismic efficiency is low at ∼2%. The ratio of apparent stress to static stress drop is ∼27%, consistent with measured overshoot. The fracture efficiency is ∼33%. The static and dynamic stress drops when extrapolated to crustal stresses are 2–7.3 MPa and in the range of typical earthquake stress drops. As the relatively high fracture energy reduces the slip velocities in these experiments, the extrapolated average particle velocities for crustal stresses are 0.18–0.6 m/s. That these experiments are consistent with typical earthquake source properties suggests, albeit indirectly, that thermal weakening mechanisms such as thermal pressurization and melting which lead to near complete stress drops, dominate earthquake source properties only for exceptional events unless crustal stresses are low.

A hypothesis for delayed dynamic earthquake triggering

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, T.

2005-01-01

It's uncertain whether more near-field earthquakes are triggered by static or dynamic stress changes. This ratio matters because static earthquake interactions are increasingly incorporated into probabilistic forecasts. Recent studies were unable to demonstrate all predictions from the static-stress-change hypothesis, particularly seismicity rate reductions. However, current dynamic stress change hypotheses do not explain delayed earthquake triggering and Omori's law. Here I show numerically that if seismic waves can alter some frictional contacts in neighboring fault zones, then dynamic triggering might cause delayed triggering and an Omori-law response. The hypothesis depends on faults following a rate/state friction law, and on seismic waves changing the mean critical slip distance (Dc) at nucleation zones.

Dynamics of seismogenerating structures in the frontal zone of the Kolyma-Omolon superterrane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imaeva, L. P.; Imaev, V. S.; Koz'min, B. M.

2016-07-01

To develop a model for the dynamics of seismogenerating structures in the frontal zone of the Kolyma-Omolon superterrane (Chersky seismotectonic zone), the following aspects are analyzed: structural-tectonic position, deep structure parameters, active faults, and fields of tectonic stresses as revealed from solutions of focal mechanisms of strong earthquakes and kinematic types of Late Cenozoic fold deformations and faults. It is found that a certain dynamic setting under transpressional conditions takes place and it was caused by the interaction between structures of the Eurasian, North American, and Okhotsk lithospheric plates within regional segments of the Chersky zone (Yana-Indigirka and Indigirka-Kolyma). These conditions are possible if the Kolyma-Omolon block located in the frontal zone of the North American Plate was an indenter. Due to this, some terranes of different geodynamic origin underwent horizontal shortening, under which particular blocks of segments were pushed out laterally along the orogenic belt, on a system of conjugated strike-slip faults of different directions and hierarchical series, in the northwest and southeast directions, respectively, to form the main seismogenerating reverse-fault and thrust structures with the maximum seismic potential ( M ≥ 6.5).