Improving dynamic phytoplankton reserve-utilization models with an indirect proxy for internal nitrogen.

PubMed

Malerba, Martino E; Heimann, Kirsten; Connolly, Sean R

2016-09-07

Ecologists have often used indirect proxies to represent variables that are difficult or impossible to measure directly. In phytoplankton, the internal concentration of the most limiting nutrient in a cell determines its growth rate. However, directly measuring the concentration of nutrients within cells is inaccurate, expensive, destructive, and time-consuming, substantially impairing our ability to model growth rates in nutrient-limited phytoplankton populations. The red chlorophyll autofluorescence (hereafter "red fluorescence") signal emitted by a cell is highly correlated with nitrogen quota in nitrogen-limited phytoplankton species. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of including flow cytometric red fluorescence as a proxy for internal nitrogen status to model phytoplankton growth rates. To this end, we used the classic Quota model and designed three approaches to calibrate its model parameters to data: where empirical observations on cell internal nitrogen quota were used to fit the model ("Nitrogen-Quota approach"), where quota dynamics were inferred only from changes in medium nutrient depletion and population density ("Virtual-Quota approach"), or where red fluorescence emission of a cell was used as an indirect proxy for its internal nitrogen quota ("Fluorescence-Quota approach"). Two separate analyses were carried out. In the first analysis, stochastic model simulations were parameterized from published empirical relationships and used to generate dynamics of phytoplankton communities reared under nitrogen-limited conditions. Quota models were fitted to the dynamics of each simulated species with the three different approaches and the performance of each model was compared. In the second analysis, we fit Quota models to laboratory time-series and we calculate the ability of each calibration approach to describe the observed trajectories of internal nitrogen quota in the culture. Results from both analyses concluded that the Fluorescence-Quota approach including per-cell red fluorescence as a proxy of internal nitrogen substantially improved the ability of Quota models to describe phytoplankton dynamics, while still accounting for the biologically important process of cell nitrogen storage. More broadly, many population models in ecology implicitly recognize the importance of accounting for storage mechanisms to describe the dynamics of individual organisms. Hence, the approach documented here with phytoplankton dynamics may also be useful for evaluating the potential of indirect proxies in other ecological systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamics and control of quadcopter using linear model predictive control approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, M.; Okasha, M.; Idres, M. M.

2017-12-01

This paper investigates the dynamics and control of a quadcopter using the Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach. The dynamic model is of high fidelity and nonlinear, with six degrees of freedom that include disturbances and model uncertainties. The control approach is developed based on MPC to track different reference trajectories ranging from simple ones such as circular to complex helical trajectories. In this control technique, a linearized model is derived and the receding horizon method is applied to generate the optimal control sequence. Although MPC is computer expensive, it is highly effective to deal with the different types of nonlinearities and constraints such as actuators’ saturation and model uncertainties. The MPC parameters (control and prediction horizons) are selected by trial-and-error approach. Several simulation scenarios are performed to examine and evaluate the performance of the proposed control approach using MATLAB and Simulink environment. Simulation results show that this control approach is highly effective to track a given reference trajectory.

Recent NASA Research on Aerodynamic Modeling of Post-Stall and Spin Dynamics of Large Transport Airplanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murch, Austin M.; Foster, John V.

2007-01-01

A simulation study was conducted to investigate aerodynamic modeling methods for prediction of post-stall flight dynamics of large transport airplanes. The research approach involved integrating dynamic wind tunnel data from rotary balance and forced oscillation testing with static wind tunnel data to predict aerodynamic forces and moments during highly dynamic departure and spin motions. Several state-of-the-art aerodynamic modeling methods were evaluated and predicted flight dynamics using these various approaches were compared. Results showed the different modeling methods had varying effects on the predicted flight dynamics and the differences were most significant during uncoordinated maneuvers. Preliminary wind tunnel validation data indicated the potential of the various methods for predicting steady spin motions.

Modelling, simulation and applications of longitudinal train dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, Colin; Spiryagin, Maksym; Wu, Qing; Sun, Yan Quan

2017-10-01

Significant developments in longitudinal train simulation and an overview of the approaches to train models and modelling vehicle force inputs are firstly presented. The most important modelling task, that of the wagon connection, consisting of energy absorption devices such as draft gears and buffers, draw gear stiffness, coupler slack and structural stiffness is then presented. Detailed attention is given to the modelling approaches for friction wedge damped and polymer draft gears. A significant issue in longitudinal train dynamics is the modelling and calculation of the input forces - the co-dimensional problem. The need to push traction performances higher has led to research and improvement in the accuracy of traction modelling which is discussed. A co-simulation method that combines longitudinal train simulation, locomotive traction control and locomotive vehicle dynamics is presented. The modelling of other forces, braking propulsion resistance, curve drag and grade forces are also discussed. As extensions to conventional longitudinal train dynamics, lateral forces and coupler impacts are examined in regards to interaction with wagon lateral and vertical dynamics. Various applications of longitudinal train dynamics are then presented. As an alternative to the tradition single wagon mass approach to longitudinal train dynamics, an example incorporating fully detailed wagon dynamics is presented for a crash analysis problem. Further applications of starting traction, air braking, distributed power, energy analysis and tippler operation are also presented.

Dynamic Bayesian Network Modeling of Game Based Diagnostic Assessments. CRESST Report 837

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Roy

2014-01-01

Digital games offer an appealing environment for assessing student proficiencies, including skills and misconceptions in a diagnostic setting. This paper proposes a dynamic Bayesian network modeling approach for observations of student performance from an educational video game. A Bayesian approach to model construction, calibration, and use in…

Modeling epidemics on adaptively evolving networks: A data-mining perspective.

PubMed

Kattis, Assimakis A; Holiday, Alexander; Stoica, Ana-Andreea; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G

2016-01-01

The exploration of epidemic dynamics on dynamically evolving ("adaptive") networks poses nontrivial challenges to the modeler, such as the determination of a small number of informative statistics of the detailed network state (that is, a few "good observables") that usefully summarize the overall (macroscopic, systems-level) behavior. Obtaining reduced, small size accurate models in terms of these few statistical observables--that is, trying to coarse-grain the full network epidemic model to a small but useful macroscopic one--is even more daunting. Here we describe a data-based approach to solving the first challenge: the detection of a few informative collective observables of the detailed epidemic dynamics. This is accomplished through Diffusion Maps (DMAPS), a recently developed data-mining technique. We illustrate the approach through simulations of a simple mathematical model of epidemics on a network: a model known to exhibit complex temporal dynamics. We discuss potential extensions of the approach, as well as possible shortcomings.

ML-Space: Hybrid Spatial Gillespie and Particle Simulation of Multi-Level Rule-Based Models in Cell Biology.

PubMed

Bittig, Arne T; Uhrmacher, Adelinde M

2017-01-01

Spatio-temporal dynamics of cellular processes can be simulated at different levels of detail, from (deterministic) partial differential equations via the spatial Stochastic Simulation algorithm to tracking Brownian trajectories of individual particles. We present a spatial simulation approach for multi-level rule-based models, which includes dynamically hierarchically nested cellular compartments and entities. Our approach ML-Space combines discrete compartmental dynamics, stochastic spatial approaches in discrete space, and particles moving in continuous space. The rule-based specification language of ML-Space supports concise and compact descriptions of models and to adapt the spatial resolution of models easily.

A dynamic model of functioning of a bank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malafeyev, Oleg; Awasthi, Achal; Zaitseva, Irina; Rezenkov, Denis; Bogdanova, Svetlana

2018-04-01

In this paper, we analyze dynamic programming as a novel approach to solve the problem of maximizing the profits of a bank. The mathematical model of the problem and the description of bank's work is described in this paper. The problem is then approached using the method of dynamic programming. Dynamic programming makes sure that the solutions obtained are globally optimal and numerically stable. The optimization process is set up as a discrete multi-stage decision process and solved with the help of dynamic programming.

Understanding system dynamics of an adaptive enzyme network from globally profiled kinetic parameters.

PubMed

Chiang, Austin W T; Liu, Wei-Chung; Charusanti, Pep; Hwang, Ming-Jing

2014-01-15

A major challenge in mathematical modeling of biological systems is to determine how model parameters contribute to systems dynamics. As biological processes are often complex in nature, it is desirable to address this issue using a systematic approach. Here, we propose a simple methodology that first performs an enrichment test to find patterns in the values of globally profiled kinetic parameters with which a model can produce the required system dynamics; this is then followed by a statistical test to elucidate the association between individual parameters and different parts of the system's dynamics. We demonstrate our methodology on a prototype biological system of perfect adaptation dynamics, namely the chemotaxis model for Escherichia coli. Our results agreed well with those derived from experimental data and theoretical studies in the literature. Using this model system, we showed that there are motifs in kinetic parameters and that these motifs are governed by constraints of the specified system dynamics. A systematic approach based on enrichment statistical tests has been developed to elucidate the relationships between model parameters and the roles they play in affecting system dynamics of a prototype biological network. The proposed approach is generally applicable and therefore can find wide use in systems biology modeling research.

Mathematical modeling and computational prediction of cancer drug resistance.

PubMed

Sun, Xiaoqiang; Hu, Bin

2017-06-23

Diverse forms of resistance to anticancer drugs can lead to the failure of chemotherapy. Drug resistance is one of the most intractable issues for successfully treating cancer in current clinical practice. Effective clinical approaches that could counter drug resistance by restoring the sensitivity of tumors to the targeted agents are urgently needed. As numerous experimental results on resistance mechanisms have been obtained and a mass of high-throughput data has been accumulated, mathematical modeling and computational predictions using systematic and quantitative approaches have become increasingly important, as they can potentially provide deeper insights into resistance mechanisms, generate novel hypotheses or suggest promising treatment strategies for future testing. In this review, we first briefly summarize the current progress of experimentally revealed resistance mechanisms of targeted therapy, including genetic mechanisms, epigenetic mechanisms, posttranslational mechanisms, cellular mechanisms, microenvironmental mechanisms and pharmacokinetic mechanisms. Subsequently, we list several currently available databases and Web-based tools related to drug sensitivity and resistance. Then, we focus primarily on introducing some state-of-the-art computational methods used in drug resistance studies, including mechanism-based mathematical modeling approaches (e.g. molecular dynamics simulation, kinetic model of molecular networks, ordinary differential equation model of cellular dynamics, stochastic model, partial differential equation model, agent-based model, pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model, etc.) and data-driven prediction methods (e.g. omics data-based conventional screening approach for node biomarkers, static network approach for edge biomarkers and module biomarkers, dynamic network approach for dynamic network biomarkers and dynamic module network biomarkers, etc.). Finally, we discuss several further questions and future directions for the use of computational methods for studying drug resistance, including inferring drug-induced signaling networks, multiscale modeling, drug combinations and precision medicine. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

X-56A MUTT: Aeroservoelastic Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ouellette, Jeffrey A.

2015-01-01

For the NASA X-56a Program, Armstrong Flight Research Center has been developing a set of linear states space models that integrate the flight dynamics and structural dynamics. These high order models are needed for the control design, control evaluation, and test input design. The current focus has been on developing stiff wing models to validate the current modeling approach. The extension of the modeling approach to the flexible wings requires only a change in the structural model. Individual subsystems models (actuators, inertial properties, etc.) have been validated by component level ground tests. Closed loop simulation of maneuvers designed to validate the flight dynamics of these models correlates very well flight test data. The open loop structural dynamics are also shown to correlate well to the flight test data.

Model-order reduction of lumped parameter systems via fractional calculus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollkamp, John P.; Sen, Mihir; Semperlotti, Fabio

2018-04-01

This study investigates the use of fractional order differential models to simulate the dynamic response of non-homogeneous discrete systems and to achieve efficient and accurate model order reduction. The traditional integer order approach to the simulation of non-homogeneous systems dictates the use of numerical solutions and often imposes stringent compromises between accuracy and computational performance. Fractional calculus provides an alternative approach where complex dynamical systems can be modeled with compact fractional equations that not only can still guarantee analytical solutions, but can also enable high levels of order reduction without compromising on accuracy. Different approaches are explored in order to transform the integer order model into a reduced order fractional model able to match the dynamic response of the initial system. Analytical and numerical results show that, under certain conditions, an exact match is possible and the resulting fractional differential models have both a complex and frequency-dependent order of the differential operator. The implications of this type of approach for both model order reduction and model synthesis are discussed.

Moving alcohol prevention research forward-Part II: new directions grounded in community-based system dynamics modeling.

PubMed

Apostolopoulos, Yorghos; Lemke, Michael K; Barry, Adam E; Lich, Kristen Hassmiller

2018-02-01

Given the complexity of factors contributing to alcohol misuse, appropriate epistemologies and methodologies are needed to understand and intervene meaningfully. We aimed to (1) provide an overview of computational modeling methodologies, with an emphasis on system dynamics modeling; (2) explain how community-based system dynamics modeling can forge new directions in alcohol prevention research; and (3) present a primer on how to build alcohol misuse simulation models using system dynamics modeling, with an emphasis on stakeholder involvement, data sources and model validation. Throughout, we use alcohol misuse among college students in the United States as a heuristic example for demonstrating these methodologies. System dynamics modeling employs a top-down aggregate approach to understanding dynamically complex problems. Its three foundational properties-stocks, flows and feedbacks-capture non-linearity, time-delayed effects and other system characteristics. As a methodological choice, system dynamics modeling is amenable to participatory approaches; in particular, community-based system dynamics modeling has been used to build impactful models for addressing dynamically complex problems. The process of community-based system dynamics modeling consists of numerous stages: (1) creating model boundary charts, behavior-over-time-graphs and preliminary system dynamics models using group model-building techniques; (2) model formulation; (3) model calibration; (4) model testing and validation; and (5) model simulation using learning-laboratory techniques. Community-based system dynamics modeling can provide powerful tools for policy and intervention decisions that can result ultimately in sustainable changes in research and action in alcohol misuse prevention. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Langevin Equation for DNA Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grych, David; Copperman, Jeremy; Guenza, Marina

Under physiological conditions, DNA oligomers can contain well-ordered helical regions and also flexible single-stranded regions. We describe the site-specific motion of DNA with a modified Rouse-Zimm Langevin equation formalism that describes DNA as a coarse-grained polymeric chain with global structure and local flexibility. The approach has successfully described the protein dynamics in solution and has been extended to nucleic acids. Our approach provides diffusive mode analytical solutions for the dynamics of global rotational diffusion and internal motion. The internal DNA dynamics present a rich energy landscape that accounts for an interior where hydrogen bonds and base-stacking determine structure and experience limited solvent exposure. We have implemented several models incorporating different coarse-grained sites with anisotropic rotation, energy barrier crossing, and local friction coefficients that include a unique internal viscosity and our models reproduce dynamics predicted by atomistic simulations. The models reproduce bond autocorrelation along the sequence as compared to that directly calculated from atomistic molecular dynamics simulations. The Langevin equation approach captures the essence of DNA dynamics without a cumbersome atomistic representation.

A Hierarchical Multivariate Bayesian Approach to Ensemble Model output Statistics in Atmospheric Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-01

efficacy of statistical post-processing methods downstream of these dynamical model components with a hierarchical multivariate Bayesian approach to...Bayesian hierarchical modeling, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods , Metropolis algorithm, machine learning, atmospheric prediction 15. NUMBER OF PAGES...scale processes. However, this dissertation explores the efficacy of statistical post-processing methods downstream of these dynamical model components

Differential equation models for sharp threshold dynamics.

PubMed

Schramm, Harrison C; Dimitrov, Nedialko B

2014-01-01

We develop an extension to differential equation models of dynamical systems to allow us to analyze probabilistic threshold dynamics that fundamentally and globally change system behavior. We apply our novel modeling approach to two cases of interest: a model of infectious disease modified for malware where a detection event drastically changes dynamics by introducing a new class in competition with the original infection; and the Lanchester model of armed conflict, where the loss of a key capability drastically changes the effectiveness of one of the sides. We derive and demonstrate a step-by-step, repeatable method for applying our novel modeling approach to an arbitrary system, and we compare the resulting differential equations to simulations of the system's random progression. Our work leads to a simple and easily implemented method for analyzing probabilistic threshold dynamics using differential equations. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Polarizable Force Fields and Polarizable Continuum Model: A Fluctuating Charges/PCM Approach. 1. Theory and Implementation.

PubMed

Lipparini, Filippo; Barone, Vincenzo

2011-11-08

We present a combined fluctuating charges-polarizable continuum model approach to describe molecules in solution. Both static and dynamic approaches are discussed: analytical first and second derivatives are shown as well as an extended lagrangian for molecular dynamics simluations. In particular, we use the polarizable continuum model to provide nonperiodic boundary conditions for molecular dynamics simulations of aqueous solutions. The extended lagrangian method is extensively discussed, with specific reference to the fluctuating charge model, from a numerical point of view by means of several examples, and a rationalization of the behavior found is presented. Several prototypical applications are shown, especially regarding solvation of ions and polar molecules in water.

Review and evaluation of recent developments in melic inlet dynamic flow distortion prediction and computer program documentation and user's manual estimating maximum instantaneous inlet flow distortion from steady-state total pressure measurements with full, limited, or no dynamic data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schweikhard, W. G.; Dennon, S. R.

1986-01-01

A review of the Melick method of inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction by statistical means is provided. These developments include the general Melick approach with full dynamic measurements, a limited dynamic measurement approach, and a turbulence modelling approach which requires no dynamic rms pressure fluctuation measurements. These modifications are evaluated by comparing predicted and measured peak instantaneous distortion levels from provisional inlet data sets. A nonlinear mean-line following vortex model is proposed and evaluated as a potential criterion for improving the peak instantaneous distortion map generated from the conventional linear vortex of the Melick method. The model is simplified to a series of linear vortex segments which lay along the mean line. Maps generated with this new approach are compared with conventionally generated maps, as well as measured peak instantaneous maps. Inlet data sets include subsonic, transonic, and supersonic inlets under various flight conditions.

Stage-by-Stage and Parallel Flow Path Compressor Modeling for a Variable Cycle Engine, NASA Advanced Air Vehicles Program - Commercial Supersonic Technology Project - AeroServoElasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph W.; Cheng, Larry

2015-01-01

This paper covers the development of stage-by-stage and parallel flow path compressor modeling approaches for a Variable Cycle Engine. The stage-by-stage compressor modeling approach is an extension of a technique for lumped volume dynamics and performance characteristic modeling. It was developed to improve the accuracy of axial compressor dynamics over lumped volume dynamics modeling. The stage-by-stage compressor model presented here is formulated into a parallel flow path model that includes both axial and rotational dynamics. This is done to enable the study of compressor and propulsion system dynamic performance under flow distortion conditions. The approaches utilized here are generic and should be applicable for the modeling of any axial flow compressor design accurate time domain simulations. The objective of this work is as follows. Given the parameters describing the conditions of atmospheric disturbances, and utilizing the derived formulations, directly compute the transfer function poles and zeros describing these disturbances for acoustic velocity, temperature, pressure, and density. Time domain simulations of representative atmospheric turbulence can then be developed by utilizing these computed transfer functions together with the disturbance frequencies of interest.

Dynamic-landscape metapopulation models predict complex response of wildlife populations to climate and landscape change

Treesearch

Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2017-01-01

The increasing need to predict how climate change will impact wildlife species has exposed limitations in how well current approaches model important biological processes at scales at which those processes interact with climate. We used a comprehensive approach that combined recent advances in landscape and population modeling into dynamic-landscape metapopulation...

An Unscented Kalman Filter Approach to the Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chow, Sy-Miin; Ferrer, Emilio; Nesselroade, John R.

2007-01-01

In the past several decades, methodologies used to estimate nonlinear relationships among latent variables have been developed almost exclusively to fit cross-sectional models. We present a relatively new estimation approach, the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), and illustrate its potential as a tool for fitting nonlinear dynamic models in two ways:…

A Mathematical Framework for the Complex System Approach to Group Dynamics: The Case of Recovery House Social Integration.

PubMed

Light, John M; Jason, Leonard A; Stevens, Edward B; Callahan, Sarah; Stone, Ariel

2016-03-01

The complex system conception of group social dynamics often involves not only changing individual characteristics, but also changing within-group relationships. Recent advances in stochastic dynamic network modeling allow these interdependencies to be modeled from data. This methodology is discussed within a context of other mathematical and statistical approaches that have been or could be applied to study the temporal evolution of relationships and behaviors within small- to medium-sized groups. An example model is presented, based on a pilot study of five Oxford House recovery homes, sober living environments for individuals following release from acute substance abuse treatment. This model demonstrates how dynamic network modeling can be applied to such systems, examines and discusses several options for pooling, and shows how results are interpreted in line with complex system concepts. Results suggest that this approach (a) is a credible modeling framework for studying group dynamics even with limited data, (b) improves upon the most common alternatives, and (c) is especially well-suited to complex system conceptions. Continuing improvements in stochastic models and associated software may finally lead to mainstream use of these techniques for the study of group dynamics, a shift already occurring in related fields of behavioral science.

Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics.

PubMed

Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

2018-01-01

In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

2018-01-01

In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

A meta-model for computer executable dynamic clinical safety checklists.

PubMed

Nan, Shan; Van Gorp, Pieter; Lu, Xudong; Kaymak, Uzay; Korsten, Hendrikus; Vdovjak, Richard; Duan, Huilong

2017-12-12

Safety checklist is a type of cognitive tool enforcing short term memory of medical workers with the purpose of reducing medical errors caused by overlook and ignorance. To facilitate the daily use of safety checklists, computerized systems embedded in the clinical workflow and adapted to patient-context are increasingly developed. However, the current hard-coded approach of implementing checklists in these systems increase the cognitive efforts of clinical experts and coding efforts for informaticists. This is due to the lack of a formal representation format that is both understandable by clinical experts and executable by computer programs. We developed a dynamic checklist meta-model with a three-step approach. Dynamic checklist modeling requirements were extracted by performing a domain analysis. Then, existing modeling approaches and tools were investigated with the purpose of reusing these languages. Finally, the meta-model was developed by eliciting domain concepts and their hierarchies. The feasibility of using the meta-model was validated by two case studies. The meta-model was mapped to specific modeling languages according to the requirements of hospitals. Using the proposed meta-model, a comprehensive coronary artery bypass graft peri-operative checklist set and a percutaneous coronary intervention peri-operative checklist set have been developed in a Dutch hospital and a Chinese hospital, respectively. The result shows that it is feasible to use the meta-model to facilitate the modeling and execution of dynamic checklists. We proposed a novel meta-model for the dynamic checklist with the purpose of facilitating creating dynamic checklists. The meta-model is a framework of reusing existing modeling languages and tools to model dynamic checklists. The feasibility of using the meta-model is validated by implementing a use case in the system.

A dynamic spatio-temporal model for spatial data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hanks, Ephraim M.; Russell, Robin; Walsh, Daniel P.

2017-01-01

Analyzing spatial data often requires modeling dependencies created by a dynamic spatio-temporal data generating process. In many applications, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is used with a random effect to account for spatial dependence and to provide optimal spatial predictions. Location-specific covariates are often included as fixed effects in a GLMM and may be collinear with the spatial random effect, which can negatively affect inference. We propose a dynamic approach to account for spatial dependence that incorporates scientific knowledge of the spatio-temporal data generating process. Our approach relies on a dynamic spatio-temporal model that explicitly incorporates location-specific covariates. We illustrate our approach with a spatially varying ecological diffusion model implemented using a computationally efficient homogenization technique. We apply our model to understand individual-level and location-specific risk factors associated with chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer from Wisconsin, USA and estimate the location the disease was first introduced. We compare our approach to several existing methods that are commonly used in spatial statistics. Our spatio-temporal approach resulted in a higher predictive accuracy when compared to methods based on optimal spatial prediction, obviated confounding among the spatially indexed covariates and the spatial random effect, and provided additional information that will be important for containing disease outbreaks.

Hybrid models for chemical reaction networks: Multiscale theory and application to gene regulatory systems.

PubMed

Winkelmann, Stefanie; Schütte, Christof

2017-09-21

Well-mixed stochastic chemical kinetics are properly modeled by the chemical master equation (CME) and associated Markov jump processes in molecule number space. If the reactants are present in large amounts, however, corresponding simulations of the stochastic dynamics become computationally expensive and model reductions are demanded. The classical model reduction approach uniformly rescales the overall dynamics to obtain deterministic systems characterized by ordinary differential equations, the well-known mass action reaction rate equations. For systems with multiple scales, there exist hybrid approaches that keep parts of the system discrete while another part is approximated either using Langevin dynamics or deterministically. This paper aims at giving a coherent overview of the different hybrid approaches, focusing on their basic concepts and the relation between them. We derive a novel general description of such hybrid models that allows expressing various forms by one type of equation. We also check in how far the approaches apply to model extensions of the CME for dynamics which do not comply with the central well-mixed condition and require some spatial resolution. A simple but meaningful gene expression system with negative self-regulation is analysed to illustrate the different approximation qualities of some of the hybrid approaches discussed. Especially, we reveal the cause of error in the case of small volume approximations.

Hybrid models for chemical reaction networks: Multiscale theory and application to gene regulatory systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, Stefanie; Schütte, Christof

2017-09-01

Well-mixed stochastic chemical kinetics are properly modeled by the chemical master equation (CME) and associated Markov jump processes in molecule number space. If the reactants are present in large amounts, however, corresponding simulations of the stochastic dynamics become computationally expensive and model reductions are demanded. The classical model reduction approach uniformly rescales the overall dynamics to obtain deterministic systems characterized by ordinary differential equations, the well-known mass action reaction rate equations. For systems with multiple scales, there exist hybrid approaches that keep parts of the system discrete while another part is approximated either using Langevin dynamics or deterministically. This paper aims at giving a coherent overview of the different hybrid approaches, focusing on their basic concepts and the relation between them. We derive a novel general description of such hybrid models that allows expressing various forms by one type of equation. We also check in how far the approaches apply to model extensions of the CME for dynamics which do not comply with the central well-mixed condition and require some spatial resolution. A simple but meaningful gene expression system with negative self-regulation is analysed to illustrate the different approximation qualities of some of the hybrid approaches discussed. Especially, we reveal the cause of error in the case of small volume approximations.

Fractional-order in a macroeconomic dynamic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

David, S. A.; Quintino, D. D.; Soliani, J.

2013-10-01

In this paper, we applied the Riemann-Liouville approach in order to realize the numerical simulations to a set of equations that represent a fractional-order macroeconomic dynamic model. It is a generalization of a dynamic model recently reported in the literature. The aforementioned equations have been simulated for several cases involving integer and non-integer order analysis, with some different values to fractional order. The time histories and the phase diagrams have been plotted to visualize the effect of fractional order approach. The new contribution of this work arises from the fact that the macroeconomic dynamic model proposed here involves the public sector deficit equation, which renders the model more realistic and complete when compared with the ones encountered in the literature. The results reveal that the fractional-order macroeconomic model can exhibit a real reasonable behavior to macroeconomics systems and might offer greater insights towards the understanding of these complex dynamic systems.

LOGISTIC NETWORK REGRESSION FOR SCALABLE ANALYSIS OF NETWORKS WITH JOINT EDGE/VERTEX DYNAMICS

PubMed Central

Almquist, Zack W.; Butts, Carter T.

2015-01-01

Change in group size and composition has long been an important area of research in the social sciences. Similarly, interest in interaction dynamics has a long history in sociology and social psychology. However, the effects of endogenous group change on interaction dynamics are a surprisingly understudied area. One way to explore these relationships is through social network models. Network dynamics may be viewed as a process of change in the edge structure of a network, in the vertex set on which edges are defined, or in both simultaneously. Although early studies of such processes were primarily descriptive, recent work on this topic has increasingly turned to formal statistical models. Although showing great promise, many of these modern dynamic models are computationally intensive and scale very poorly in the size of the network under study and/or the number of time points considered. Likewise, currently used models focus on edge dynamics, with little support for endogenously changing vertex sets. Here, the authors show how an existing approach based on logistic network regression can be extended to serve as a highly scalable framework for modeling large networks with dynamic vertex sets. The authors place this approach within a general dynamic exponential family (exponential-family random graph modeling) context, clarifying the assumptions underlying the framework (and providing a clear path for extensions), and they show how model assessment methods for cross-sectional networks can be extended to the dynamic case. Finally, the authors illustrate this approach on a classic data set involving interactions among windsurfers on a California beach. PMID:26120218

LOGISTIC NETWORK REGRESSION FOR SCALABLE ANALYSIS OF NETWORKS WITH JOINT EDGE/VERTEX DYNAMICS.

PubMed

Almquist, Zack W; Butts, Carter T

2014-08-01

Change in group size and composition has long been an important area of research in the social sciences. Similarly, interest in interaction dynamics has a long history in sociology and social psychology. However, the effects of endogenous group change on interaction dynamics are a surprisingly understudied area. One way to explore these relationships is through social network models. Network dynamics may be viewed as a process of change in the edge structure of a network, in the vertex set on which edges are defined, or in both simultaneously. Although early studies of such processes were primarily descriptive, recent work on this topic has increasingly turned to formal statistical models. Although showing great promise, many of these modern dynamic models are computationally intensive and scale very poorly in the size of the network under study and/or the number of time points considered. Likewise, currently used models focus on edge dynamics, with little support for endogenously changing vertex sets. Here, the authors show how an existing approach based on logistic network regression can be extended to serve as a highly scalable framework for modeling large networks with dynamic vertex sets. The authors place this approach within a general dynamic exponential family (exponential-family random graph modeling) context, clarifying the assumptions underlying the framework (and providing a clear path for extensions), and they show how model assessment methods for cross-sectional networks can be extended to the dynamic case. Finally, the authors illustrate this approach on a classic data set involving interactions among windsurfers on a California beach.

Dynamic Bayesian network modeling for longitudinal brain morphometry

PubMed Central

Chen, Rong; Resnick, Susan M; Davatzikos, Christos; Herskovits, Edward H

2011-01-01

Identifying interactions among brain regions from structural magnetic-resonance images presents one of the major challenges in computational neuroanatomy. We propose a Bayesian data-mining approach to the detection of longitudinal morphological changes in the human brain. Our method uses a dynamic Bayesian network to represent evolving inter-regional dependencies. The major advantage of dynamic Bayesian network modeling is that it can represent complicated interactions among temporal processes. We validated our approach by analyzing a simulated atrophy study, and found that this approach requires only a small number of samples to detect the ground-truth temporal model. We further applied dynamic Bayesian network modeling to a longitudinal study of normal aging and mild cognitive impairment — the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging. We found that interactions among regional volume-change rates for the mild cognitive impairment group are different from those for the normal-aging group. PMID:21963916

Numeric, Agent-based or System Dynamics Model? Which Modeling Approach is the Best for Vast Population Simulation?

PubMed

Cimler, Richard; Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Dolezal, Ondrej; Pscheidl, Pavel; Kuca, Kamil

2018-01-01

Alzheimer's disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25% of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact. Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer's disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared. The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed. In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

77 FR 13607 - Agency Forms Undergoing Paperwork Reduction Act Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-07

... Transformation Grants: Use of System Dynamic Modeling and Economic Analysis in Select Communities--New--National... community interventions. Using a system dynamics approach, CDC also plans to conduct simulation modeling... the development of analytic tools for system dynamics modeling under more limited conditions. The...

Quantum electron-vibrational dynamics at finite temperature: Thermo field dynamics approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrelli, Raffaele; Gelin, Maxim F.

2016-12-01

Quantum electron-vibrational dynamics in molecular systems at finite temperature is described using an approach based on the thermo field dynamics theory. This formulation treats temperature effects in the Hilbert space without introducing the Liouville space. A comparison with the theoretically equivalent density matrix formulation shows the key numerical advantages of the present approach. The solution of thermo field dynamics equations with a novel technique for the propagation of tensor trains (matrix product states) is discussed. Numerical applications to model spin-boson systems show that the present approach is a promising tool for the description of quantum dynamics of complex molecular systems at finite temperature.

Capturing Context-Related Change in Emotional Dynamics via Fixed Moderated Time Series Analysis.

PubMed

Adolf, Janne K; Voelkle, Manuel C; Brose, Annette; Schmiedek, Florian

2017-01-01

Much of recent affect research relies on intensive longitudinal studies to assess daily emotional experiences. The resulting data are analyzed with dynamic models to capture regulatory processes involved in emotional functioning. Daily contexts, however, are commonly ignored. This may not only result in biased parameter estimates and wrong conclusions, but also ignores the opportunity to investigate contextual effects on emotional dynamics. With fixed moderated time series analysis, we present an approach that resolves this problem by estimating context-dependent change in dynamic parameters in single-subject time series models. The approach examines parameter changes of known shape and thus addresses the problem of observed intra-individual heterogeneity (e.g., changes in emotional dynamics due to observed changes in daily stress). In comparison to existing approaches to unobserved heterogeneity, model estimation is facilitated and different forms of change can readily be accommodated. We demonstrate the approach's viability given relatively short time series by means of a simulation study. In addition, we present an empirical application, targeting the joint dynamics of affect and stress and how these co-vary with daily events. We discuss potentials and limitations of the approach and close with an outlook on the broader implications for understanding emotional adaption and development.

Dynamic Emulation Modelling (DEMo) of large physically-based environmental models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.

2012-12-01

In environmental modelling large, spatially-distributed, physically-based models are widely adopted to describe the dynamics of physical, social and economic processes. Such an accurate process characterization comes, however, to a price: the computational requirements of these models are considerably high and prevent their use in any problem requiring hundreds or thousands of model runs to be satisfactory solved. Typical examples include optimal planning and management, data assimilation, inverse modelling and sensitivity analysis. An effective approach to overcome this limitation is to perform a top-down reduction of the physically-based model by identifying a simplified, computationally efficient emulator, constructed from and then used in place of the original model in highly resource-demanding tasks. The underlying idea is that not all the process details in the original model are equally important and relevant to the dynamics of the outputs of interest for the type of problem considered. Emulation modelling has been successfully applied in many environmental applications, however most of the literature considers non-dynamic emulators (e.g. metamodels, response surfaces and surrogate models), where the original dynamical model is reduced to a static map between input and the output of interest. In this study we focus on Dynamic Emulation Modelling (DEMo), a methodological approach that preserves the dynamic nature of the original physically-based model, with consequent advantages in a wide variety of problem areas. In particular, we propose a new data-driven DEMo approach that combines the many advantages of data-driven modelling in representing complex, non-linear relationships, but preserves the state-space representation typical of process-based models, which is both particularly effective in some applications (e.g. optimal management and data assimilation) and facilitates the ex-post physical interpretation of the emulator structure, thus enhancing the credibility of the model to stakeholders and decision-makers. Numerical results from the application of the approach to the reduction of 3D coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models in several real world case studies, including Marina Reservoir (Singapore) and Googong Reservoir (Australia), are illustrated.

Critical dynamic approach to stationary states in complex systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenfeld, A. F.; Laneri, K.; Albano, E. V.

2007-04-01

A dynamic scaling Ansatz for the approach to stationary states in complex systems is proposed and tested by means of extensive simulations applied to both the Bak-Sneppen (BS) model, which exhibits robust Self-Organised Critical (SOC) behaviour, and the Game of Life (GOL) of J. Conway, whose critical behaviour is under debate. Considering the dynamic scaling behaviour of the density of sites (ρ(t)), it is shown that i) by starting the dynamic measurements with configurations such that ρ(t=0) →0, one observes an initial increase of the density with exponents θ= 0.12(2) and θ= 0.11(2) for the BS and GOL models, respectively; ii) by using initial configurations with ρ(t=0) →1, the density decays with exponents δ= 0.47(2) and δ= 0.28(2) for the BS and GOL models, respectively. It is also shown that the temporal autocorrelation decays with exponents Ca = 0.35(2) (Ca = 0.35(5)) for the BS (GOL) model. By using these dynamically determined critical exponents and suitable scaling relationships, we also obtain the dynamic exponents z = 2.10(5) (z = 2.10(5)) for the BS (GOL) model. Based on this evidence we conclude that the dynamic approach to stationary states of the investigated models can be described by suitable power-law functions of time with well-defined exponents.

Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

PubMed

Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

2017-09-16

Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

Integrating dynamic stereo-radiography and surface-based motion data for subject-specific musculoskeletal dynamic modeling.

PubMed

Zheng, Liying; Li, Kang; Shetye, Snehal; Zhang, Xudong

2014-09-22

This manuscript presents a new subject-specific musculoskeletal dynamic modeling approach that integrates high-accuracy dynamic stereo-radiography (DSX) joint kinematics and surface-based full-body motion data. We illustrate this approach by building a model in OpenSim for a patient who participated in a meniscus transplantation efficacy study, incorporating DSX data of the tibiofemoral joint kinematics. We compared this DSX-incorporated (DSXI) model to a default OpenSim model built using surface-measured data alone. The architectures and parameters of the two models were identical, while the differences in (time-averaged) tibiofemoral kinematics were of the order of magnitude of 10° in rotation and 10mm in translation. Model-predicted tibiofemoral compressive forces and knee muscle activations were compared against literature data acquired from instrumented total knee replacement components (Fregly et al., 2012) and the patient's EMG recording. The comparison demonstrated that the incorporation of DSX data improves the veracity of musculoskeletal dynamic modeling. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating dynamic stereo-radiography and surface-based motion data for subject-specific musculoskeletal dynamic modeling

PubMed Central

Zheng, Liying; Li, Kang; Shetye, Snehal; Zhang, Xudong

2014-01-01

This paper presents a new subject-specific musculoskeletal dynamic modeling approach that integrates high-accuracy dynamic stereo-radiography (DSX) joint kinematics and surface-based full-body motion data. We illustrate this approach by building a model in OpenSim for a patient who participated in a meniscus transplantation efficacy study, incorporating DSX data of the tibiofemoral joint kinematics. We compared this DSX-incorporated (DSXI) model to a default OpenSim model built using surface-measured data alone. The architectures and parameters of the two models were identical, while the differences in (time-averaged) tibiofemoral kinematics were of the order of magnitude of 10° in rotation and 10 mm in translation. Model-predicted tibiofemoral compressive forces and knee muscle activations were compared against literature data acquired from instrumented total knee replacement components (Fregly et al., 2012) and the patient's EMG recording. The comparison demonstrated that the incorporation of DSX data improves the veracity of musculoskeletal dynamic modeling. PMID:25169658

Thermal noise model of antiferromagnetic dynamics: A macroscopic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xilai; Semenov, Yuriy; Kim, Ki Wook

In the search for post-silicon technologies, antiferromagnetic (AFM) spintronics is receiving widespread attention. Due to faster dynamics when compared with its ferromagnetic counterpart, AFM enables ultra-fast magnetization switching and THz oscillations. A crucial factor that affects the stability of antiferromagnetic dynamics is the thermal fluctuation, rarely considered in AFM research. Here, we derive from theory both stochastic dynamic equations for the macroscopic AFM Neel vector (L-vector) and the corresponding Fokker-Plank equation for the L-vector distribution function. For the dynamic equation approach, thermal noise is modeled by a stochastic fluctuating magnetic field that affects the AFM dynamics. The field is correlated within the correlation time and the amplitude is derived from the energy dissipation theory. For the distribution function approach, the inertial behavior of AFM dynamics forces consideration of the generalized space, including both coordinates and velocities. Finally, applying the proposed thermal noise model, we analyze a particular case of L-vector reversal of AFM nanoparticles by voltage controlled perpendicular magnetic anisotropy (PMA) with a tailored pulse width. This work was supported, in part, by SRC/NRI SWAN.

Low-energy fusion dynamics of weakly bound nuclei: A time dependent perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz-Torres, A.; Boselli, M.

2016-05-01

Recent dynamical fusion models for weakly bound nuclei at low incident energies, based on a time-dependent perspective, are briefly presented. The main features of both the PLATYPUS model and a new quantum approach are highlighted. In contrast to existing timedependent quantum models, the present quantum approach separates the complete and incomplete fusion from the total fusion. Calculations performed within a toy model for 6Li + 209Bi at near-barrier energies show that converged excitation functions for total, complete and incomplete fusion can be determined with the time-dependent wavepacket dynamics.

Development of dynamic Bayesian models for web application test management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azarnova, T. V.; Polukhin, P. V.; Bondarenko, Yu V.; Kashirina, I. L.

2018-03-01

The mathematical apparatus of dynamic Bayesian networks is an effective and technically proven tool that can be used to model complex stochastic dynamic processes. According to the results of the research, mathematical models and methods of dynamic Bayesian networks provide a high coverage of stochastic tasks associated with error testing in multiuser software products operated in a dynamically changing environment. Formalized representation of the discrete test process as a dynamic Bayesian model allows us to organize the logical connection between individual test assets for multiple time slices. This approach gives an opportunity to present testing as a discrete process with set structural components responsible for the generation of test assets. Dynamic Bayesian network-based models allow us to combine in one management area individual units and testing components with different functionalities and a direct influence on each other in the process of comprehensive testing of various groups of computer bugs. The application of the proposed models provides an opportunity to use a consistent approach to formalize test principles and procedures, methods used to treat situational error signs, and methods used to produce analytical conclusions based on test results.

Dynamic Evaluation of Long-Term Air Quality Model Simulations Over the Northeastern U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic model evaluation assesses a modeling system's ability to reproduce changes in air quality induced by changes in meteorology and/or emissions. In this paper, we illustrate various approaches to dynamic mode evaluation utilizing 18 years of air quality simulations perform...

Improving predictions of large scale soil carbon dynamics: Integration of fine-scale hydrological and biogeochemical processes, scaling, and benchmarking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Dwivedi, D.; Ghimire, B.; Hoffman, F. M.; Pau, G. S. H.; Randerson, J. T.; Shen, C.; Tang, J.; Zhu, Q.

2015-12-01

Numerical model representations of decadal- to centennial-scale soil-carbon dynamics are a dominant cause of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Recent attempts by some Earth System Model (ESM) teams to integrate previously unrepresented soil processes (e.g., explicit microbial processes, abiotic interactions with mineral surfaces, vertical transport), poor performance of many ESM land models against large-scale and experimental manipulation observations, and complexities associated with spatial heterogeneity highlight the nascent nature of our community's ability to accurately predict future soil carbon dynamics. I will present recent work from our group to develop a modeling framework to integrate pore-, column-, watershed-, and global-scale soil process representations into an ESM (ACME), and apply the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for evaluation. At the column scale and across a wide range of sites, observed depth-resolved carbon stocks and their 14C derived turnover times can be explained by a model with explicit representation of two microbial populations, a simple representation of mineralogy, and vertical transport. Integrating soil and plant dynamics requires a 'process-scaling' approach, since all aspects of the multi-nutrient system cannot be explicitly resolved at ESM scales. I will show that one approach, the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation, improves predictions of forest nitrogen and phosphorus experimental manipulations and leads to very different global soil carbon predictions. Translating model representations from the site- to ESM-scale requires a spatial scaling approach that either explicitly resolves the relevant processes, or more practically, accounts for fine-resolution dynamics at coarser scales. To that end, I will present recent watershed-scale modeling work that applies reduced order model methods to accurately scale fine-resolution soil carbon dynamics to coarse-resolution simulations. Finally, we contend that creating believable soil carbon predictions requires a robust, transparent, and community-available benchmarking framework. I will present an ILAMB evaluation of several of the above-mentioned approaches in ACME, and attempt to motivate community adoption of this evaluation approach.

Multi-Dimensional Calibration of Impact Dynamic Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horta, Lucas G.; Reaves, Mercedes C.; Annett, Martin S.; Jackson, Karen E.

2011-01-01

NASA Langley, under the Subsonic Rotary Wing Program, recently completed two helicopter tests in support of an in-house effort to study crashworthiness. As part of this effort, work is on-going to investigate model calibration approaches and calibration metrics for impact dynamics models. Model calibration of impact dynamics problems has traditionally assessed model adequacy by comparing time histories from analytical predictions to test at only a few critical locations. Although this approach provides for a direct measure of the model predictive capability, overall system behavior is only qualitatively assessed using full vehicle animations. In order to understand the spatial and temporal relationships of impact loads as they migrate throughout the structure, a more quantitative approach is needed. In this work impact shapes derived from simulated time history data are used to recommend sensor placement and to assess model adequacy using time based metrics and orthogonality multi-dimensional metrics. An approach for model calibration is presented that includes metric definitions, uncertainty bounds, parameter sensitivity, and numerical optimization to estimate parameters to reconcile test with analysis. The process is illustrated using simulated experiment data.

Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models.

PubMed

Daniels, Bryan C; Nemenman, Ilya

2015-08-21

Dynamics of complex systems is often driven by large and intricate networks of microscopic interactions, whose sheer size obfuscates understanding. With limited experimental data, many parameters of such dynamics are unknown, and thus detailed, mechanistic models risk overfitting and making faulty predictions. At the other extreme, simple ad hoc models often miss defining features of the underlying systems. Here we develop an approach that instead constructs phenomenological, coarse-grained models of network dynamics that automatically adapt their complexity to the available data. Such adaptive models produce accurate predictions even when microscopic details are unknown. The approach is computationally tractable, even for a relatively large number of dynamical variables. Using simulated data, it correctly infers the phase space structure for planetary motion, avoids overfitting in a biological signalling system and produces accurate predictions for yeast glycolysis with tens of data points and over half of the interacting species unobserved.

Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models

PubMed Central

Daniels, Bryan C.; Nemenman, Ilya

2015-01-01

Dynamics of complex systems is often driven by large and intricate networks of microscopic interactions, whose sheer size obfuscates understanding. With limited experimental data, many parameters of such dynamics are unknown, and thus detailed, mechanistic models risk overfitting and making faulty predictions. At the other extreme, simple ad hoc models often miss defining features of the underlying systems. Here we develop an approach that instead constructs phenomenological, coarse-grained models of network dynamics that automatically adapt their complexity to the available data. Such adaptive models produce accurate predictions even when microscopic details are unknown. The approach is computationally tractable, even for a relatively large number of dynamical variables. Using simulated data, it correctly infers the phase space structure for planetary motion, avoids overfitting in a biological signalling system and produces accurate predictions for yeast glycolysis with tens of data points and over half of the interacting species unobserved. PMID:26293508

Bottom-up derivation of conservative and dissipative interactions for coarse-grained molecular liquids with the conditional reversible work method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deichmann, Gregor; Marcon, Valentina; Vegt, Nico F. A. van der, E-mail: vandervegt@csi.tu-darmstadt.de

Molecular simulations of soft matter systems have been performed in recent years using a variety of systematically coarse-grained models. With these models, structural or thermodynamic properties can be quite accurately represented while the prediction of dynamic properties remains difficult, especially for multi-component systems. In this work, we use constraint molecular dynamics simulations for calculating dissipative pair forces which are used together with conditional reversible work (CRW) conservative forces in dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) simulations. The combined CRW-DPD approach aims to extend the representability of CRW models to dynamic properties and uses a bottom-up approach. Dissipative pair forces are derived frommore » fluctuations of the direct atomistic forces between mapped groups. The conservative CRW potential is obtained from a similar series of constraint dynamics simulations and represents the reversible work performed to couple the direct atomistic interactions between the mapped atom groups. Neopentane, tetrachloromethane, cyclohexane, and n-hexane have been considered as model systems. These molecular liquids are simulated with atomistic molecular dynamics, coarse-grained molecular dynamics, and DPD. We find that the CRW-DPD models reproduce the liquid structure and diffusive dynamics of the liquid systems in reasonable agreement with the atomistic models when using single-site mapping schemes with beads containing five or six heavy atoms. For a two-site representation of n-hexane (3 carbons per bead), time scale separation can no longer be assumed and the DPD approach consequently fails to reproduce the atomistic dynamics.« less

Flexible aircraft dynamic modeling for dynamic analysis and control synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, David K.

1989-01-01

The linearization and simplification of a nonlinear, literal model for flexible aircraft is highlighted. Areas of model fidelity that are critical if the model is to be used for control system synthesis are developed and several simplification techniques that can deliver the necessary model fidelity are discussed. These techniques include both numerical and analytical approaches. An analytical approach, based on first-order sensitivity theory is shown to lead not only to excellent numerical results, but also to closed-form analytical expressions for key system dynamic properties such as the pole/zero factors of the vehicle transfer-function matrix. The analytical results are expressed in terms of vehicle mass properties, vibrational characteristics, and rigid-body and aeroelastic stability derivatives, thus leading to the underlying causes for critical dynamic characteristics.

Dynamic Modeling from Flight Data with Unknown Time Skews

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene A.

2016-01-01

A method for estimating dynamic model parameters from flight data with unknown time skews is described and demonstrated. The method combines data reconstruction, nonlinear optimization, and equation-error parameter estimation in the frequency domain to accurately estimate both dynamic model parameters and the relative time skews in the data. Data from a nonlinear F-16 aircraft simulation with realistic noise, instrumentation errors, and arbitrary time skews were used to demonstrate the approach. The approach was further evaluated using flight data from a subscale jet transport aircraft, where the measured data were known to have relative time skews. Comparison of modeling results obtained from time-skewed and time-synchronized data showed that the method accurately estimates both dynamic model parameters and relative time skew parameters from flight data with unknown time skews.

Coherent dynamic structure factors of strongly coupled plasmas: A generalized hydrodynamic approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Di; Hu, GuangYue; Gong, Tao

2016-05-15

A generalized hydrodynamic fluctuation model is proposed to simplify the calculation of the dynamic structure factor S(ω, k) of non-ideal plasmas using the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. In this model, the kinetic and correlation effects are both included in hydrodynamic coefficients, which are considered as functions of the coupling strength (Γ) and collision parameter (kλ{sub ei}), where λ{sub ei} is the electron-ion mean free path. A particle-particle particle-mesh molecular dynamics simulation code is also developed to simulate the dynamic structure factors, which are used to benchmark the calculation of our model. A good agreement between the two different approaches confirms the reliabilitymore » of our model.« less

Dynamical minimalism: why less is more in psychology.

PubMed

Nowak, Andrzej

2004-01-01

The principle of parsimony, embraced in all areas of science, states that simple explanations are preferable to complex explanations in theory construction. Parsimony, however, can necessitate a trade-off with depth and richness in understanding. The approach of dynamical minimalism avoids this trade-off. The goal of this approach is to identify the simplest mechanisms and fewest variables capable of producing the phenomenon in question. A dynamical model in which change is produced by simple rules repetitively interacting with each other can exhibit unexpected and complex properties. It is thus possible to explain complex psychological and social phenomena with very simple models if these models are dynamic. In dynamical minimalist theories, then, the principle of parsimony can be followed without sacrificing depth in understanding. Computer simulations have proven especially useful for investigating the emergent properties of simple models.

The development of an autonomous rendezvous and docking simulation using rapid integration and prototyping technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shackelford, John H.; Saugen, John D.; Wurst, Michael J.; Adler, James

1991-01-01

A generic planar 3 degree of freedom simulation was developed that supports hardware in the loop simulations, guidance and control analysis, and can directly generate flight software. This simulation was developed in a small amount of time utilizing rapid prototyping techniques. The approach taken to develop this simulation tool, the benefits seen using this approach to development, and on-going efforts to improve and extend this capability are described. The simulation is composed of 3 major elements: (1) Docker dynamics model, (2) Dockee dynamics model, and (3) Docker Control System. The docker and dockee models are based on simple planar orbital dynamics equations using a spherical earth gravity model. The docker control system is based on a phase plane approach to error correction.

Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.

2017-06-01

Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.

Lattice dynamics approach to determine the dependence of the time-of-flight of transversal polarized acoustic waves on external stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarar, K. S.; Pluta, M.; Amjad, U.; Grill, W.

2011-04-01

Based on the lattice dynamics approach the dependence of the time-of-flight (TOF) on stress has been modeled for transversal polarized acoustic waves. The relevant dispersion relation is derived from the appropriate mass-spring model together with the dependencies on the restoring forces including the effect of externally applied stress. The lattice dynamics approach can also be interpreted as a discrete and strictly periodic lumped circuit. In that case the modeling represents a finite element approach. In both cases the properties relevant for wavelengths large with respect to the periodic structure can be derived from the respective limit relating also to low frequencies. The model representing a linear chain with stiffness to shear and additional stiffness introduced by extensional stress is presented and compared to existing models, which so far represent each only one of the effects treated here in combination. For a string this effect is well known from musical instruments. The counteracting effects are discussed and compared to experimental results.

Model-based functional neuroimaging using dynamic neural fields: An integrative cognitive neuroscience approach

PubMed Central

Wijeakumar, Sobanawartiny; Ambrose, Joseph P.; Spencer, John P.; Curtu, Rodica

2017-01-01

A fundamental challenge in cognitive neuroscience is to develop theoretical frameworks that effectively span the gap between brain and behavior, between neuroscience and psychology. Here, we attempt to bridge this divide by formalizing an integrative cognitive neuroscience approach using dynamic field theory (DFT). We begin by providing an overview of how DFT seeks to understand the neural population dynamics that underlie cognitive processes through previous applications and comparisons to other modeling approaches. We then use previously published behavioral and neural data from a response selection Go/Nogo task as a case study for model simulations. Results from this study served as the ‘standard’ for comparisons with a model-based fMRI approach using dynamic neural fields (DNF). The tutorial explains the rationale and hypotheses involved in the process of creating the DNF architecture and fitting model parameters. Two DNF models, with similar structure and parameter sets, are then compared. Both models effectively simulated reaction times from the task as we varied the number of stimulus-response mappings and the proportion of Go trials. Next, we directly simulated hemodynamic predictions from the neural activation patterns from each model. These predictions were tested using general linear models (GLMs). Results showed that the DNF model that was created by tuning parameters to capture simultaneously trends in neural activation and behavioral data quantitatively outperformed a Standard GLM analysis of the same dataset. Further, by using the GLM results to assign functional roles to particular clusters in the brain, we illustrate how DNF models shed new light on the neural populations’ dynamics within particular brain regions. Thus, the present study illustrates how an interactive cognitive neuroscience model can be used in practice to bridge the gap between brain and behavior. PMID:29118459

A Hybrid Approach to Data Assimilation for Reconstructing the Evolution of Mantle Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Quan; Liu, Lijun

2017-11-01

Quantifying past mantle dynamic processes represents a major challenge in understanding the temporal evolution of the solid earth. Mantle convection modeling with data assimilation is one of the most powerful tools to investigate the dynamics of plate subduction and mantle convection. Although various data assimilation methods, both forward and inverse, have been created, these methods all have limitations in their capabilities to represent the real earth. Pure forward models tend to miss important mantle structures due to the incorrect initial condition and thus may lead to incorrect mantle evolution. In contrast, pure tomography-based models cannot effectively resolve the fine slab structure and would fail to predict important subduction-zone dynamic processes. Here we propose a hybrid data assimilation approach that combines the unique power of the sequential and adjoint algorithms, which can properly capture the detailed evolution of the downgoing slab and the tomographically constrained mantle structures, respectively. We apply this new method to reconstructing mantle dynamics below the western U.S. while considering large lateral viscosity variations. By comparing this result with those from several existing data assimilation methods, we demonstrate that the hybrid modeling approach recovers the realistic 4-D mantle dynamics the best.

Dynamics modelling and Hybrid Suppression Control of space robots performing cooperative object manipulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarafshan, P.; Moosavian, S. Ali A.

2013-10-01

Dynamics modelling and control of multi-body space robotic systems composed of rigid and flexible elements is elaborated here. Control of such systems is highly complicated due to severe under-actuated condition caused by flexible elements, and an inherent uneven nonlinear dynamics. Therefore, developing a compact dynamics model with the requirement of limited computations is extremely useful for controller design, also to develop simulation studies in support of design improvement, and finally for practical implementations. In this paper, the Rigid-Flexible Interactive dynamics Modelling (RFIM) approach is introduced as a combination of Lagrange and Newton-Euler methods, in which the motion equations of rigid and flexible members are separately developed in an explicit closed form. These equations are then assembled and solved simultaneously at each time step by considering the mutual interaction and constraint forces. The proposed approach yields a compact model rather than common accumulation approach that leads to a massive set of equations in which the dynamics of flexible elements is united with the dynamics equations of rigid members. To reveal such merits of this new approach, a Hybrid Suppression Control (HSC) for a cooperative object manipulation task will be proposed, and applied to usual space systems. A Wheeled Mobile Robotic (WMR) system with flexible appendages as a typical space rover is considered which contains a rigid main body equipped with two manipulating arms and two flexible solar panels, and next a Space Free Flying Robotic system (SFFR) with flexible members is studied. Modelling verification of these complicated systems is vigorously performed using ANSYS and ADAMS programs, while the limited computations of RFIM approach provides an efficient tool for the proposed controller design. Furthermore, it will be shown that the vibrations of the flexible solar panels results in disturbing forces on the base which may produce undesirable errors and perturb the object manipulation task. So, it is shown that these effects can be significantly eliminated by the proposed Hybrid Suppression Control algorithm.

A Bottom-Up Approach to Understanding Protein Layer Formation at Solid-Liquid Interfaces

PubMed Central

Kastantin, Mark; Langdon, Blake B.; Schwartz, Daniel K.

2014-01-01

A common goal across different fields (e.g. separations, biosensors, biomaterials, pharmaceuticals) is to understand how protein behavior at solid-liquid interfaces is affected by environmental conditions. Temperature, pH, ionic strength, and the chemical and physical properties of the solid surface, among many factors, can control microscopic protein dynamics (e.g. adsorption, desorption, diffusion, aggregation) that contribute to macroscopic properties like time-dependent total protein surface coverage and protein structure. These relationships are typically studied through a top-down approach in which macroscopic observations are explained using analytical models that are based upon reasonable, but not universally true, simplifying assumptions about microscopic protein dynamics. Conclusions connecting microscopic dynamics to environmental factors can be heavily biased by potentially incorrect assumptions. In contrast, more complicated models avoid several of the common assumptions but require many parameters that have overlapping effects on predictions of macroscopic, average protein properties. Consequently, these models are poorly suited for the top-down approach. Because the sophistication incorporated into these models may ultimately prove essential to understanding interfacial protein behavior, this article proposes a bottom-up approach in which direct observations of microscopic protein dynamics specify parameters in complicated models, which then generate macroscopic predictions to compare with experiment. In this framework, single-molecule tracking has proven capable of making direct measurements of microscopic protein dynamics, but must be complemented by modeling to combine and extrapolate many independent microscopic observations to the macro-scale. The bottom-up approach is expected to better connect environmental factors to macroscopic protein behavior, thereby guiding rational choices that promote desirable protein behaviors. PMID:24484895

Estimating rates of local extinction and colonization in colonial species and an extension to the metapopulation and community levels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbraud, C.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Hafner, H.

2003-01-01

Coloniality has mainly been studied from an evolutionary perspective, but relatively few studies have developed methods for modelling colony dynamics. Changes in number of colonies over time provide a useful tool for predicting and evaluating the responses of colonial species to management and to environmental disturbance. Probabilistic Markov process models have been recently used to estimate colony site dynamics using presence-absence data when all colonies are detected in sampling efforts. Here, we define and develop two general approaches for the modelling and analysis of colony dynamics for sampling situations in which all colonies are, and are not, detected. For both approaches, we develop a general probabilistic model for the data and then constrain model parameters based on various hypotheses about colony dynamics. We use Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to assess the adequacy of the constrained models. The models are parameterised with conditional probabilities of local colony site extinction and colonization. Presence-absence data arising from Pollock's robust capture-recapture design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of extinction, colonization, and detection probabilities when not all colonies are detected. This second approach should be particularly useful in situations where detection probabilities are heterogeneous among colony sites. The general methodology is illustrated using presence-absence data on two species of herons (Purple Heron, Ardea purpurea and Grey Heron, Ardea cinerea). Estimates of the extinction and colonization rates showed interspecific differences and strong temporal and spatial variations. We were also able to test specific predictions about colony dynamics based on ideas about habitat change and metapopulation dynamics. We recommend estimators based on probabilistic modelling for future work on colony dynamics. We also believe that this methodological framework has wide application to problems in animal ecology concerning metapopulation and community dynamics.

Model-Based Prognostics of Hybrid Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Bregon, Anibal

2015-01-01

Model-based prognostics has become a popular approach to solving the prognostics problem. However, almost all work has focused on prognostics of systems with continuous dynamics. In this paper, we extend the model-based prognostics framework to hybrid systems models that combine both continuous and discrete dynamics. In general, most systems are hybrid in nature, including those that combine physical processes with software. We generalize the model-based prognostics formulation to hybrid systems, and describe the challenges involved. We present a general approach for modeling hybrid systems, and overview methods for solving estimation and prediction in hybrid systems. As a case study, we consider the problem of conflict (i.e., loss of separation) prediction in the National Airspace System, in which the aircraft models are hybrid dynamical systems.

A Navier-Stokes phase-field crystal model for colloidal suspensions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Praetorius, Simon, E-mail: simon.praetorius@tu-dresden.de; Voigt, Axel, E-mail: axel.voigt@tu-dresden.de

2015-04-21

We develop a fully continuous model for colloidal suspensions with hydrodynamic interactions. The Navier-Stokes Phase-Field Crystal model combines ideas of dynamic density functional theory with particulate flow approaches and is derived in detail and related to other dynamic density functional theory approaches with hydrodynamic interactions. The derived system is numerically solved using adaptive finite elements and is used to analyze colloidal crystallization in flowing environments demonstrating a strong coupling in both directions between the crystal shape and the flow field. We further validate the model against other computational approaches for particulate flow systems for various colloidal sedimentation problems.

A Navier-Stokes phase-field crystal model for colloidal suspensions.

PubMed

Praetorius, Simon; Voigt, Axel

2015-04-21

We develop a fully continuous model for colloidal suspensions with hydrodynamic interactions. The Navier-Stokes Phase-Field Crystal model combines ideas of dynamic density functional theory with particulate flow approaches and is derived in detail and related to other dynamic density functional theory approaches with hydrodynamic interactions. The derived system is numerically solved using adaptive finite elements and is used to analyze colloidal crystallization in flowing environments demonstrating a strong coupling in both directions between the crystal shape and the flow field. We further validate the model against other computational approaches for particulate flow systems for various colloidal sedimentation problems.

Dynamic traffic assignment : genetic algorithms approach

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

Real-time route guidance is a promising approach to alleviating congestion on the nations highways. A dynamic traffic assignment model is central to the development of guidance strategies. The artificial intelligence technique of genetic algorithm...

A functional-dynamic reflection on participatory processes in modeling projects.

PubMed

Seidl, Roman

2015-12-01

The participation of nonscientists in modeling projects/studies is increasingly employed to fulfill different functions. However, it is not well investigated if and how explicitly these functions and the dynamics of a participatory process are reflected by modeling projects in particular. In this review study, I explore participatory modeling projects from a functional-dynamic process perspective. The main differences among projects relate to the functions of participation-most often, more than one per project can be identified, along with the degree of explicit reflection (i.e., awareness and anticipation) on the dynamic process perspective. Moreover, two main approaches are revealed: participatory modeling covering diverse approaches and companion modeling. It becomes apparent that the degree of reflection on the participatory process itself is not always explicit and perfectly visible in the descriptions of the modeling projects. Thus, the use of common protocols or templates is discussed to facilitate project planning, as well as the publication of project results. A generic template may help, not in providing details of a project or model development, but in explicitly reflecting on the participatory process. It can serve to systematize the particular project's approach to stakeholder collaboration, and thus quality management.

A coupled melt-freeze temperature index approach in a one-layer model to predict bulk volumetric liquid water content dynamics in snow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avanzi, Francesco; Yamaguchi, Satoru; Hirashima, Hiroyuki; De Michele, Carlo

2016-04-01

Liquid water in snow rules runoff dynamics and wet snow avalanches release. Moreover, it affects snow viscosity and snow albedo. As a result, measuring and modeling liquid water dynamics in snow have important implications for many scientific applications. However, measurements are usually challenging, while modeling is difficult due to an overlap of mechanical, thermal and hydraulic processes. Here, we evaluate the use of a simple one-layer one-dimensional model to predict hourly time-series of bulk volumetric liquid water content in seasonal snow. The model considers both a simple temperature-index approach (melt only) and a coupled melt-freeze temperature-index approach that is able to reconstruct melt-freeze dynamics. Performance of this approach is evaluated at three sites in Japan. These sites (Nagaoka, Shinjo and Sapporo) present multi-year time-series of snow and meteorological data, vertical profiles of snow physical properties and snow melt lysimeters data. These data-sets are an interesting opportunity to test this application in different climatic conditions, as sites span a wide latitudinal range and are subjected to different snow conditions during the season. When melt-freeze dynamics are included in the model, results show that median absolute differences between observations and predictions of bulk volumetric liquid water content are consistently lower than 1 vol%. Moreover, the model is able to predict an observed dry condition of the snowpack in 80% of observed cases at a non-calibration site, where parameters from calibration sites are transferred. Overall, the analysis show that a coupled melt-freeze temperature-index approach may be a valid solution to predict average wetness conditions of a snow cover at local scale.

A control-oriented lithium-ion battery pack model for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle cycle-life studies and system design with consideration of health management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordoba-Arenas, Andrea; Onori, Simona; Rizzoni, Giorgio

2015-04-01

A crucial step towards the large-scale introduction of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the market is to reduce the cost of its battery systems. Currently, battery cycle- and calendar-life represents one of the greatest uncertainties in the total life-cycle cost of battery systems. The field of battery aging modeling and prognosis has seen progress with respect to model-based and data-driven approaches to describe the aging of battery cells. However, in real world applications cells are interconnected and aging propagates. The propagation of aging from one cell to others exhibits itself in a reduced battery system life. This paper proposes a control-oriented battery pack model that describes the propagation of aging and its effect on the life span of battery systems. The modeling approach is such that it is able to predict pack aging, thermal, and electrical dynamics under actual PHEV operation, and includes consideration of random variability of the cells, electrical topology and thermal management. The modeling approach is based on the interaction between dynamic system models of the electrical and thermal dynamics, and dynamic models of cell aging. The system-level state-of-health (SOH) is assessed based on knowledge of individual cells SOH, pack electrical topology and voltage equalization approach.

Combat Simulation Using Breach Computer Language

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-09-01

simulation and weapon system analysis computer language Two types of models were constructed: a stochastic duel and a dynamic engagement model The... duel model validates the BREACH approach by comparing results with mathematical solutions. The dynamic model shows the capability of the BREACH...BREACH 2 Background 2 The Language 3 Static Duel 4 Background and Methodology 4 Validation 5 Results 8 Tank Duel Simulation 8 Dynamic Assault Model

Controlling aliased dynamics in motion systems? An identification for sampled-data control approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oomen, Tom

2014-07-01

Sampled-data control systems occasionally exhibit aliased resonance phenomena within the control bandwidth. The aim of this paper is to investigate the aspect of these aliased dynamics with application to a high performance industrial nano-positioning machine. This necessitates a full sampled-data control design approach, since these aliased dynamics endanger both the at-sample performance and the intersample behaviour. The proposed framework comprises both system identification and sampled-data control. In particular, the sampled-data control objective necessitates models that encompass the intersample behaviour, i.e., ideally continuous time models. Application of the proposed approach on an industrial wafer stage system provides a thorough insight and new control design guidelines for controlling aliased dynamics.

Rail vehicle dynamic response to a nonlinear physical 'in-service' model of its secondary suspension hydraulic dampers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W. L.; Zhou, Z. R.; Yu, D. S.; Qin, Q. H.; Iwnicki, S.

2017-10-01

A full nonlinear physical 'in-service' model was built for a rail vehicle secondary suspension hydraulic damper with shim-pack-type valves. In the modelling process, a shim pack deflection theory with an equivalent-pressure correction factor was proposed, and a Finite Element Analysis (FEA) approach was applied. Bench test results validated the damper model over its full velocity range and thus also proved that the proposed shim pack deflection theory and the FEA-based parameter identification approach are effective. The validated full damper model was subsequently incorporated into a detailed vehicle dynamics simulation to study how its key in-service parameter variations influence the secondary-suspension-related vehicle system dynamics. The obtained nonlinear physical in-service damper model and the vehicle dynamic response characteristics in this study could be used in the product design optimization and nonlinear optimal specifications of high-speed rail hydraulic dampers.

An integrated approach to evaluate policies for controlling traffic law violations.

PubMed

Mehmood, Arif

2010-03-01

Modeling dynamics of the driver behavior is a complex problem. In this paper a system approach is introduced to model and to analyze the driver behavior related to traffic law violations in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. This paper demonstrates how the theoretical relationships between different factors can be expressed formally, and how the resulting model can assist in evaluating potential benefits of various policies to control the traffic law violations Using system approach, an integrated dynamic simulation model is developed, and model is tested to simulate the driver behavior for violating traffic laws during 2002-2007 in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. The dynamic simulation model attempts to address the questions: (1) "what" interventions should be implemented to reduce and eventually control traffic violations which will lead to improving road safety and (2) "how" to justify those interventions will be effective or ineffective to control the violations in different transportation conditions. The simulation results reveal promising capability of applying system approach in the policy evaluation studies. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions.

PubMed

Abimbola, Majeed; Khan, Faisal

2018-02-01

Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real-time risk analysis. The real-time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom-hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

An integrated approach to infer dynamic protein-gene interactions - A case study of the human P53 protein.

PubMed

Wang, Junbai; Wu, Qianqian; Hu, Xiaohua Tony; Tian, Tianhai

2016-11-01

Investigating the dynamics of genetic regulatory networks through high throughput experimental data, such as microarray gene expression profiles, is a very important but challenging task. One of the major hindrances in building detailed mathematical models for genetic regulation is the large number of unknown model parameters. To tackle this challenge, a new integrated method is proposed by combining a top-down approach and a bottom-up approach. First, the top-down approach uses probabilistic graphical models to predict the network structure of DNA repair pathway that is regulated by the p53 protein. Two networks are predicted, namely a network of eight genes with eight inferred interactions and an extended network of 21 genes with 17 interactions. Then, the bottom-up approach using differential equation models is developed to study the detailed genetic regulations based on either a fully connected regulatory network or a gene network obtained by the top-down approach. Model simulation error, parameter identifiability and robustness property are used as criteria to select the optimal network. Simulation results together with permutation tests of input gene network structures indicate that the prediction accuracy and robustness property of the two predicted networks using the top-down approach are better than those of the corresponding fully connected networks. In particular, the proposed approach reduces computational cost significantly for inferring model parameters. Overall, the new integrated method is a promising approach for investigating the dynamics of genetic regulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computational neuropharmacology: dynamical approaches in drug discovery.

PubMed

Aradi, Ildiko; Erdi, Péter

2006-05-01

Computational approaches that adopt dynamical models are widely accepted in basic and clinical neuroscience research as indispensable tools with which to understand normal and pathological neuronal mechanisms. Although computer-aided techniques have been used in pharmaceutical research (e.g. in structure- and ligand-based drug design), the power of dynamical models has not yet been exploited in drug discovery. We suggest that dynamical system theory and computational neuroscience--integrated with well-established, conventional molecular and electrophysiological methods--offer a broad perspective in drug discovery and in the search for novel targets and strategies for the treatment of neurological and psychiatric diseases.

Combining Computational Fluid Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling: A New Approach to Evacuation Planning

PubMed Central

Epstein, Joshua M.; Pankajakshan, Ramesh; Hammond, Ross A.

2011-01-01

We introduce a novel hybrid of two fields—Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)—as a powerful new technique for urban evacuation planning. CFD is a predominant technique for modeling airborne transport of contaminants, while ABM is a powerful approach for modeling social dynamics in populations of adaptive individuals. The hybrid CFD-ABM method is capable of simulating how large, spatially-distributed populations might respond to a physically realistic contaminant plume. We demonstrate the overall feasibility of CFD-ABM evacuation design, using the case of a hypothetical aerosol release in Los Angeles to explore potential effectiveness of various policy regimes. We conclude by arguing that this new approach can be powerfully applied to arbitrary population centers, offering an unprecedented preparedness and catastrophic event response tool. PMID:21687788

Finite-temperature time-dependent variation with multiple Davydov states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lu; Fujihashi, Yuta; Chen, Lipeng; Zhao, Yang

2017-03-01

The Dirac-Frenkel time-dependent variational approach with Davydov Ansätze is a sophisticated, yet efficient technique to obtain an accurate solution to many-body Schrödinger equations for energy and charge transfer dynamics in molecular aggregates and light-harvesting complexes. We extend this variational approach to finite temperature dynamics of the spin-boson model by adopting a Monte Carlo importance sampling method. In order to demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we compare calculated real-time quantum dynamics of the spin-boson model with that from numerically exact iterative quasiadiabatic propagator path integral (QUAPI) technique. The comparison shows that our variational approach with the single Davydov Ansätze is in excellent agreement with the QUAPI method at high temperatures, while the two differ at low temperatures. Accuracy in dynamics calculations employing a multitude of Davydov trial states is found to improve substantially over the single Davydov Ansatz, especially at low temperatures. At a moderate computational cost, our variational approach with the multiple Davydov Ansatz is shown to provide accurate spin-boson dynamics over a wide range of temperatures and bath spectral densities.

Inference of Gene Regulatory Networks Incorporating Multi-Source Biological Knowledge via a State Space Model with L1 Regularization

PubMed Central

Hasegawa, Takanori; Yamaguchi, Rui; Nagasaki, Masao; Miyano, Satoru; Imoto, Seiya

2014-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) is a major challenge in the field of systems biology. Currently, there are two main approaches in GRN analysis using time-course observation data, namely an ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based approach and a statistical model-based approach. The ODE-based approach can generate complex dynamics of GRNs according to biologically validated nonlinear models. However, it cannot be applied to ten or more genes to simultaneously estimate system dynamics and regulatory relationships due to the computational difficulties. The statistical model-based approach uses highly abstract models to simply describe biological systems and to infer relationships among several hundreds of genes from the data. However, the high abstraction generates false regulations that are not permitted biologically. Thus, when dealing with several tens of genes of which the relationships are partially known, a method that can infer regulatory relationships based on a model with low abstraction and that can emulate the dynamics of ODE-based models while incorporating prior knowledge is urgently required. To accomplish this, we propose a method for inference of GRNs using a state space representation of a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model with L1 regularization. This method can estimate the dynamic behavior of genes based on linear time-series modeling constructed from an ODE-based model and can infer the regulatory structure among several tens of genes maximizing prediction ability for the observational data. Furthermore, the method is capable of incorporating various types of existing biological knowledge, e.g., drug kinetics and literature-recorded pathways. The effectiveness of the proposed method is shown through a comparison of simulation studies with several previous methods. For an application example, we evaluated mRNA expression profiles over time upon corticosteroid stimulation in rats, thus incorporating corticosteroid kinetics/dynamics, literature-recorded pathways and transcription factor (TF) information. PMID:25162401

Approaches for modeling within subject variability in pharmacometric count data analysis: dynamic inter-occasion variability and stochastic differential equations.

PubMed

Deng, Chenhui; Plan, Elodie L; Karlsson, Mats O

2016-06-01

Parameter variation in pharmacometric analysis studies can be characterized as within subject parameter variability (WSV) in pharmacometric models. WSV has previously been successfully modeled using inter-occasion variability (IOV), but also stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In this study, two approaches, dynamic inter-occasion variability (dIOV) and adapted stochastic differential equations, were proposed to investigate WSV in pharmacometric count data analysis. These approaches were applied to published count models for seizure counts and Likert pain scores. Both approaches improved the model fits significantly. In addition, stochastic simulation and estimation were used to explore further the capability of the two approaches to diagnose and improve models where existing WSV is not recognized. The results of simulations confirmed the gain in introducing WSV as dIOV and SDEs when parameters vary randomly over time. Further, the approaches were also informative as diagnostics of model misspecification, when parameters changed systematically over time but this was not recognized in the structural model. The proposed approaches in this study offer strategies to characterize WSV and are not restricted to count data.

Modeling Climate Dynamically

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walsh, Jim; McGehee, Richard

2013-01-01

A dynamical systems approach to energy balance models of climate is presented, focusing on low order, or conceptual, models. Included are global average and latitude-dependent, surface temperature models. The development and analysis of the differential equations and corresponding bifurcation diagrams provides a host of appropriate material for…

An Ecological Approach to Learning Dynamics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Normak, Peeter; Pata, Kai; Kaipainen, Mauri

2012-01-01

New approaches to emergent learner-directed learning design can be strengthened with a theoretical framework that considers learning as a dynamic process. We propose an approach that models a learning process using a set of spatial concepts: learning space, position of a learner, niche, perspective, step, path, direction of a step and step…

a System Dynamics Model to Study the Importance of Infrastructure Facilities on Quality of Primary Education System in Developing Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedamallu, Chandra Sekhar; Ozdamar, Linet; Weber, Gerhard-Wilhelm; Kropat, Erik

2010-06-01

The system dynamics approach is a holistic way of solving problems in real-time scenarios. This is a powerful methodology and computer simulation modeling technique for framing, analyzing, and discussing complex issues and problems. System dynamics modeling and simulation is often the background of a systemic thinking approach and has become a management and organizational development paradigm. This paper proposes a system dynamics approach for study the importance of infrastructure facilities on quality of primary education system in developing nations. The model is proposed to be built using the Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) method of relating entities and attributes relevant to the primary education system in any given community. We offer a survey to build the cross-impact correlation matrix and, hence, to better understand the primary education system and importance of infrastructural facilities on quality of primary education. The resulting model enables us to predict the effects of infrastructural facilities on the access of primary education by the community. This may support policy makers to take more effective actions in campaigns.

A Practical Approach to Implementing Real-Time Semantics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luettgen, Gerald; Bhat, Girish; Cleaveland, Rance

1999-01-01

This paper investigates implementations of process algebras which are suitable for modeling concurrent real-time systems. It suggests an approach for efficiently implementing real-time semantics using dynamic priorities. For this purpose a proces algebra with dynamic priority is defined, whose semantics corresponds one-to-one to traditional real-time semantics. The advantage of the dynamic-priority approach is that it drastically reduces the state-space sizes of the systems in question while preserving all properties of their functional and real-time behavior. The utility of the technique is demonstrated by a case study which deals with the formal modeling and verification of the SCSI-2 bus-protocol. The case study is carried out in the Concurrency Workbench of North Carolina, an automated verification tool in which the process algebra with dynamic priority is implemented. It turns out that the state space of the bus-protocol model is about an order of magnitude smaller than the one resulting from real-time semantics. The accuracy of the model is proved by applying model checking for verifying several mandatory properties of the bus protocol.

Theoretical Approaches in Evolutionary Ecology: Environmental Feedback as a Unifying Perspective.

PubMed

Lion, Sébastien

2018-01-01

Evolutionary biology and ecology have a strong theoretical underpinning, and this has fostered a variety of modeling approaches. A major challenge of this theoretical work has been to unravel the tangled feedback loop between ecology and evolution. This has prompted the development of two main classes of models. While quantitative genetics models jointly consider the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of a focal population, a separation of timescales between ecology and evolution is assumed by evolutionary game theory, adaptive dynamics, and inclusive fitness theory. As a result, theoretical evolutionary ecology tends to be divided among different schools of thought, with different toolboxes and motivations. My aim in this synthesis is to highlight the connections between these different approaches and clarify the current state of theory in evolutionary ecology. Central to this approach is to make explicit the dependence on environmental dynamics of the population and evolutionary dynamics, thereby materializing the eco-evolutionary feedback loop. This perspective sheds light on the interplay between environmental feedback and the timescales of ecological and evolutionary processes. I conclude by discussing some potential extensions and challenges to our current theoretical understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

Spatial operator algebra for flexible multibody dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jain, A.; Rodriguez, G.

1993-01-01

This paper presents an approach to modeling the dynamics of flexible multibody systems such as flexible spacecraft and limber space robotic systems. A large number of degrees of freedom and complex dynamic interactions are typical in these systems. This paper uses spatial operators to develop efficient recursive algorithms for the dynamics of these systems. This approach very efficiently manages complexity by means of a hierarchy of mathematical operations.

Population-reaction model and microbial experimental ecosystems for understanding hierarchical dynamics of ecosystems.

PubMed

Hosoda, Kazufumi; Tsuda, Soichiro; Kadowaki, Kohmei; Nakamura, Yutaka; Nakano, Tadashi; Ishii, Kojiro

2016-02-01

Understanding ecosystem dynamics is crucial as contemporary human societies face ecosystem degradation. One of the challenges that needs to be recognized is the complex hierarchical dynamics. Conventional dynamic models in ecology often represent only the population level and have yet to include the dynamics of the sub-organism level, which makes an ecosystem a complex adaptive system that shows characteristic behaviors such as resilience and regime shifts. The neglect of the sub-organism level in the conventional dynamic models would be because integrating multiple hierarchical levels makes the models unnecessarily complex unless supporting experimental data are present. Now that large amounts of molecular and ecological data are increasingly accessible in microbial experimental ecosystems, it is worthwhile to tackle the questions of their complex hierarchical dynamics. Here, we propose an approach that combines microbial experimental ecosystems and a hierarchical dynamic model named population-reaction model. We present a simple microbial experimental ecosystem as an example and show how the system can be analyzed by a population-reaction model. We also show that population-reaction models can be applied to various ecological concepts, such as predator-prey interactions, climate change, evolution, and stability of diversity. Our approach will reveal a path to the general understanding of various ecosystems and organisms. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Principles for the dynamic maintenance of cortical polarity

PubMed Central

Marco, Eugenio; Wedlich-Soldner, Roland; Li, Rong; Altschuler, Steven J.; Wu, Lani F.

2007-01-01

Summary Diverse cell types require the ability to dynamically maintain polarized membrane protein distributions through balancing transport and diffusion. However, design principles underlying dynamically maintained cortical polarity are not well understood. Here we constructed a mathematical model for characterizing the morphology of dynamically polarized protein distributions. We developed analytical approaches for measuring all model parameters from single-cell experiments. We applied our methods to a well-characterized system for studying polarized membrane proteins: budding yeast cells expressing activated Cdc42. We found that balanced diffusion and colocalized transport to and from the plasma membrane were sufficient for accurately describing polarization morphologies. Surprisingly, the model predicts that polarized regions are defined with a precision that is nearly optimal for measured transport rates, and that polarity can be dynamically stabilized through positive feedback with directed transport. Our approach provides a step towards understanding how biological systems shape spatially precise, unambiguous cortical polarity domains using dynamic processes. PMID:17448998

Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mooij, Wolf M.; Trolle, Dennis; Jeppesen, Erik; Arhonditsis, George; Belolipetsky, Pavel V.; Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B.R.; Degermendzhy, Andrey G.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Domis, Lisette N. De Senerpont; Downing, Andrea S.; Elliott, J. Alex; Ruberto, Carlos Ruberto; Gaedke, Ursula; Genova, Svetlana N.; Gulati, Ramesh D.; Hakanson, Lars; Hamilton, David P.; Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hoen, Jochem 't; Hulsmann, Stephan; Los, F. Hans; Makler-Pick, Vardit; Petzoldt, Thomas; Prokopkin, Igor G.; Rinke, Karsten; Schep, Sebastiaan A.; Tominaga, Koji; Van Dam, Anne A.; Van Nes, Egbert H.; Wells, Scott A.; Janse, Jan H.

2010-01-01

A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models.

Analysis of the Assignment Scheduling Capability for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (ASC-U) Simulation Tool

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

dynamic programming approach known as a “rolling horizon” approach. This method accounts for state transitions within the simulation rather than modeling ... model is based on the framework developed for Dynamic Allocation of Fires and Sensors used to evaluate factors associated with networking assets in the...of UAVs required by all types of maneuver and support brigades. (Witsken, 2004) The Modeling , Virtual Environments, and Simulations Institute

Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks.

PubMed

Pei, Sen; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-10-13

For influenza forecasts generated using dynamical models, forecast inaccuracy is partly attributable to the nonlinear growth of error. As a consequence, quantification of the nonlinear error structure in current forecast models is needed so that this growth can be corrected and forecast skill improved. Here, we inspect the error growth of a compartmental influenza model and find that a robust error structure arises naturally from the nonlinear model dynamics. By counteracting these structural errors, diagnosed using error breeding, we develop a new forecast approach that combines dynamical error correction and statistical filtering techniques. In retrospective forecasts of historical influenza outbreaks for 95 US cities from 2003 to 2014, overall forecast accuracy for outbreak peak timing, peak intensity and attack rate, are substantially improved for predicted lead times up to 10 weeks. This error growth correction method can be generalized to improve the forecast accuracy of other infectious disease dynamical models.Inaccuracy of influenza forecasts based on dynamical models is partly due to nonlinear error growth. Here the authors address the error structure of a compartmental influenza model, and develop a new improved forecast approach combining dynamical error correction and statistical filtering techniques.

Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

2016-04-01

This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support our hypothesis. That is, the change of vegetation in space and time may be better understood when modelling vegetation change as both a dynamic and multivariate process. Therefore, future research will focus on a multivariate dynamical spatio-temporal modelling approach. This ongoing research is performed within the context of the project "Global impacts of hydrological and climatic extremes on vegetation" (project acronym: SAT-EX) which is part of the Belgian research programme for Earth Observation Stereo III.

Computer Simulation of the Forces Acting on a Submerged Polystyrene Probe as it Approaches the Succinonitrile Melt-Solid Interface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bune, Andris V.; Kaukler, William; Whitaker, Ann (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A Modeling approach to simulate both mesoscale and microscopic forces acting in a typical AFM experiment is presented. A mesoscale level interaction between the cantilever tip and the sample surface is primarily described by the balance of attractive Van der Waals and repulsive forces. Ultimately, the goal is to measure the forces between a particle and the crystal-melt interface. Two modes of AFM operation are considered in this paper - a stationary and a "tapping" one. The continuous mechanics approach to model tip-surface interaction is presented. At microscopic levels, tip contamination and details of tip-surface interaction are modeled using a molecular dynamics approach for the case of polystyrene - succinonitrile contact. Integration of the mesoscale model with a molecular dynamic model is discussed.

Towards a comprehensive framework for cosimulation of dynamic models with an emphasis on time stepping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoepfer, Matthias

Over the last two decades, computer modeling and simulation have evolved as the tools of choice for the design and engineering of dynamic systems. With increased system complexities, modeling and simulation become essential enablers for the design of new systems. Some of the advantages that modeling and simulation-based system design allows for are the replacement of physical tests to ensure product performance, reliability and quality, the shortening of design cycles due to the reduced need for physical prototyping, the design for mission scenarios, the invoking of currently nonexisting technologies, and the reduction of technological and financial risks. Traditionally, dynamic systems are modeled in a monolithic way. Such monolithic models include all the data, relations and equations necessary to represent the underlying system. With increased complexity of these models, the monolithic model approach reaches certain limits regarding for example, model handling and maintenance. Furthermore, while the available computer power has been steadily increasing according to Moore's Law (a doubling in computational power every 10 years), the ever-increasing complexities of new models have negated the increased resources available. Lastly, modern systems and design processes are interdisciplinary, enforcing the necessity to make models more flexible to be able to incorporate different modeling and design approaches. The solution to bypassing the shortcomings of monolithic models is cosimulation. In a very general sense, co-simulation addresses the issue of linking together different dynamic sub-models to a model which represents the overall, integrated dynamic system. It is therefore an important enabler for the design of interdisciplinary, interconnected, highly complex dynamic systems. While a basic co-simulation setup can be very easy, complications can arise when sub-models display behaviors such as algebraic loops, singularities, or constraints. This work frames the co-simulation approach to modeling and simulation. It lays out the general approach to dynamic system co-simulation, and gives a comprehensive overview of what co-simulation is and what it is not. It creates a taxonomy of the requirements and limits of co-simulation, and the issues arising with co-simulating sub-models. Possible solutions towards resolving the stated problems are investigated to a certain depth. A particular focus is given to the issue of time stepping. It will be shown that for dynamic models, the selection of the simulation time step is a crucial issue with respect to computational expense, simulation accuracy, and error control. The reasons for this are discussed in depth, and a time stepping algorithm for co-simulation with unknown dynamic sub-models is proposed. Motivations and suggestions for the further treatment of selected issues are presented.

Exploring tropical forest vegetation dynamics using the FATES model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Chambers, J.; Kueppers, L. M.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Davies, S. J.; Dietze, M.; Holm, J.; Massoud, E. C.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Powell, T.; Serbin, S.; Shuman, J. K.; Walker, A. P.; Wright, S. J.; Xu, C.

2017-12-01

Tropical forest vegetation dynamics represent a critical climate feedback in the Earth system, which is poorly represented in current global modeling approaches. We discuss recent progress on exploring these dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a demographic vegetation model for the CESM and ACME ESMs. We will discuss benchmarks of FATES predictions for forest structure against inventory sites, sensitivity of FATES predictions of size and age structure to model parameter uncertainty, and experiments using the FATES model to explore PFT competitive dynamics and the dynamics of size and age distributions in responses to changing climate and CO2.

Static and Dynamic Model Update of an Inflatable/Rigidizable Torus Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horta, Lucas G.; Reaves, mercedes C.

2006-01-01

The present work addresses the development of an experimental and computational procedure for validating finite element models. A torus structure, part of an inflatable/rigidizable Hexapod, is used to demonstrate the approach. Because of fabrication, materials, and geometric uncertainties, a statistical approach combined with optimization is used to modify key model parameters. Static test results are used to update stiffness parameters and dynamic test results are used to update the mass distribution. Updated parameters are computed using gradient and non-gradient based optimization algorithms. Results show significant improvements in model predictions after parameters are updated. Lessons learned in the areas of test procedures, modeling approaches, and uncertainties quantification are presented.

Design an optimum safety policy for personnel safety management - A system dynamic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balaji, P.

2014-10-01

Personnel safety management (PSM) ensures that employee's work conditions are healthy and safe by various proactive and reactive approaches. Nowadays it is a complex phenomenon because of increasing dynamic nature of organisations which results in an increase of accidents. An important part of accident prevention is to understand the existing system properly and make safety strategies for that system. System dynamics modelling appears to be an appropriate methodology to explore and make strategy for PSM. Many system dynamics models of industrial systems have been built entirely for specific host firms. This thesis illustrates an alternative approach. The generic system dynamics model of Personnel safety management was developed and tested in a host firm. The model was undergone various structural, behavioural and policy tests. The utility and effectiveness of model was further explored through modelling a safety scenario. In order to create effective safety policy under resource constraint, DOE (Design of experiment) was used. DOE uses classic designs, namely, fractional factorials and central composite designs. It used to make second order regression equation which serve as an objective function. That function was optimized under budget constraint and optimum value used for safety policy which shown greatest improvement in overall PSM. The outcome of this research indicates that personnel safety management model has the capability for acting as instruction tool to improve understanding of safety management and also as an aid to policy making.

Data Driven Model Development for the Supersonic Semispan Transport (S(sup 4)T)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kukreja, Sunil L.

2011-01-01

We investigate two common approaches to model development for robust control synthesis in the aerospace community; namely, reduced order aeroservoelastic modelling based on structural finite-element and computational fluid dynamics based aerodynamic models and a data-driven system identification procedure. It is shown via analysis of experimental Super- Sonic SemiSpan Transport (S4T) wind-tunnel data using a system identification approach it is possible to estimate a model at a fixed Mach, which is parsimonious and robust across varying dynamic pressures.

Multiple scales modelling approaches to social interaction in crowd dynamics and crisis management. Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modelling to "big data" toward crisis management" by Nicola Bellomo et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trucu, Dumitru

2016-09-01

In this comprehensive review concerning the modelling of human behaviours in crowd dynamics [3], the authors explore a wide range of mathematical approaches spanning over multiple scales that are suitable to describe emerging crowd behaviours in extreme situations. Focused on deciphering the key aspects leading to emerging crowd patterns evolutions in challenging times such as those requiring an evacuation on a complex venue, the authors address this complex dynamics at both microscale (individual level), mesoscale (probability distributions of interacting individuals), and macroscale (population level), ultimately aiming to gain valuable understanding and knowledge that would inform decision making in managing crisis situations.

Long-term dynamic modeling of tethered spacecraft using nodal position finite element method and symplectic integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, G. Q.; Zhu, Z. H.

2015-12-01

Dynamic modeling of tethered spacecraft with the consideration of elasticity of tether is prone to the numerical instability and error accumulation over long-term numerical integration. This paper addresses the challenges by proposing a globally stable numerical approach with the nodal position finite element method (NPFEM) and the implicit, symplectic, 2-stage and 4th order Gaussian-Legendre Runge-Kutta time integration. The NPFEM eliminates the numerical error accumulation by using the position instead of displacement of tether as the state variable, while the symplectic integration enforces the energy and momentum conservation of the discretized finite element model to ensure the global stability of numerical solution. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed approach is assessed by an elastic pendulum problem, whose dynamic response resembles that of tethered spacecraft, in comparison with the commonly used time integrators such as the classical 4th order Runge-Kutta schemes and other families of non-symplectic Runge-Kutta schemes. Numerical results show that the proposed approach is accurate and the energy of the corresponding numerical model is conservative over the long-term numerical integration. Finally, the proposed approach is applied to the dynamic modeling of deorbiting process of tethered spacecraft over a long period.

Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data.

PubMed

Farrer, Emily C; Ashton, Isabel W; Knape, Jonas; Suding, Katharine N

2014-04-01

Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non-additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single-factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best-fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Bayesian nonparametric approach to dynamical noise reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaloudis, Konstantinos; Hatjispyros, Spyridon J.

2018-06-01

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach for the noise reduction of a given chaotic time series contaminated by dynamical noise, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The underlying unknown noise process (possibly) exhibits heavy tailed behavior. We introduce the Dynamic Noise Reduction Replicator model with which we reconstruct the unknown dynamic equations and in parallel we replicate the dynamics under reduced noise level dynamical perturbations. The dynamic noise reduction procedure is demonstrated specifically in the case of polynomial maps. Simulations based on synthetic time series are presented.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Shaobu; Lu, Shuai; Zhou, Ning

In interconnected power systems, dynamic model reduction can be applied on generators outside the area of interest to mitigate the computational cost with transient stability studies. This paper presents an approach of deriving the reduced dynamic model of the external area based on dynamic response measurements, which comprises of three steps, dynamic-feature extraction, attribution and reconstruction (DEAR). In the DEAR approach, a feature extraction technique, such as singular value decomposition (SVD), is applied to the measured generator dynamics after a disturbance. Characteristic generators are then identified in the feature attribution step for matching the extracted dynamic features with the highestmore » similarity, forming a suboptimal ‘basis’ of system dynamics. In the reconstruction step, generator state variables such as rotor angles and voltage magnitudes are approximated with a linear combination of the characteristic generators, resulting in a quasi-nonlinear reduced model of the original external system. Network model is un-changed in the DEAR method. Tests on several IEEE standard systems show that the proposed method gets better reduction ratio and response errors than the traditional coherency aggregation methods.« less

Dynamic deformable models for 3D MRI heart segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhukov, Leonid; Bao, Zhaosheng; Gusikov, Igor; Wood, John; Breen, David E.

2002-05-01

Automated or semiautomated segmentation of medical images decreases interstudy variation, observer bias, and postprocessing time as well as providing clincally-relevant quantitative data. In this paper we present a new dynamic deformable modeling approach to 3D segmentation. It utilizes recently developed dynamic remeshing techniques and curvature estimation methods to produce high-quality meshes. The approach has been implemented in an interactive environment that allows a user to specify an initial model and identify key features in the data. These features act as hard constraints that the model must not pass through as it deforms. We have employed the method to perform semi-automatic segmentation of heart structures from cine MRI data.

Nonlinear dynamics of laser systems with elements of a chaos: Advanced computational code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buyadzhi, V. V.; Glushkov, A. V.; Khetselius, O. Yu; Kuznetsova, A. A.; Buyadzhi, A. A.; Prepelitsa, G. P.; Ternovsky, V. B.

2017-10-01

A general, uniform chaos-geometric computational approach to analysis, modelling and prediction of the non-linear dynamics of quantum and laser systems (laser and quantum generators system etc) with elements of the deterministic chaos is briefly presented. The approach is based on using the advanced generalized techniques such as the wavelet analysis, multi-fractal formalism, mutual information approach, correlation integral analysis, false nearest neighbour algorithm, the Lyapunov’s exponents analysis, and surrogate data method, prediction models etc There are firstly presented the numerical data on the topological and dynamical invariants (in particular, the correlation, embedding, Kaplan-York dimensions, the Lyapunov’s exponents, Kolmogorov’s entropy and other parameters) for laser system (the semiconductor GaAs/GaAlAs laser with a retarded feedback) dynamics in a chaotic and hyperchaotic regimes.

Modeling of Receptor Tyrosine Kinase Signaling: Computational and Experimental Protocols.

PubMed

Fey, Dirk; Aksamitiene, Edita; Kiyatkin, Anatoly; Kholodenko, Boris N

2017-01-01

The advent of systems biology has convincingly demonstrated that the integration of experiments and dynamic modelling is a powerful approach to understand the cellular network biology. Here we present experimental and computational protocols that are necessary for applying this integrative approach to the quantitative studies of receptor tyrosine kinase (RTK) signaling networks. Signaling by RTKs controls multiple cellular processes, including the regulation of cell survival, motility, proliferation, differentiation, glucose metabolism, and apoptosis. We describe methods of model building and training on experimentally obtained quantitative datasets, as well as experimental methods of obtaining quantitative dose-response and temporal dependencies of protein phosphorylation and activities. The presented methods make possible (1) both the fine-grained modeling of complex signaling dynamics and identification of salient, course-grained network structures (such as feedback loops) that bring about intricate dynamics, and (2) experimental validation of dynamic models.

Robust model predictive control of nonlinear systems with unmodeled dynamics and bounded uncertainties based on neural networks.

PubMed

Yan, Zheng; Wang, Jun

2014-03-01

This paper presents a neural network approach to robust model predictive control (MPC) for constrained discrete-time nonlinear systems with unmodeled dynamics affected by bounded uncertainties. The exact nonlinear model of underlying process is not precisely known, but a partially known nominal model is available. This partially known nonlinear model is first decomposed to an affine term plus an unknown high-order term via Jacobian linearization. The linearization residue combined with unmodeled dynamics is then modeled using an extreme learning machine via supervised learning. The minimax methodology is exploited to deal with bounded uncertainties. The minimax optimization problem is reformulated as a convex minimization problem and is iteratively solved by a two-layer recurrent neural network. The proposed neurodynamic approach to nonlinear MPC improves the computational efficiency and sheds a light for real-time implementability of MPC technology. Simulation results are provided to substantiate the effectiveness and characteristics of the proposed approach.

An optimal strategy for functional mapping of dynamic trait loci.

PubMed

Jin, Tianbo; Li, Jiahan; Guo, Ying; Zhou, Xiaojing; Yang, Runqing; Wu, Rongling

2010-02-01

As an emerging powerful approach for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTLs) responsible for dynamic traits, functional mapping models the time-dependent mean vector with biologically meaningful equations and are likely to generate biologically relevant and interpretable results. Given the autocorrelation nature of a dynamic trait, functional mapping needs the implementation of the models for the structure of the covariance matrix. In this article, we have provided a comprehensive set of approaches for modelling the covariance structure and incorporated each of these approaches into the framework of functional mapping. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values are used as a model selection criterion to choose the optimal combination of the submodels for the mean vector and covariance structure. In an example for leaf age growth from a rice molecular genetic project, the best submodel combination was found between the Gaussian model for the correlation structure, power equation of order 1 for the variance and the power curve for the mean vector. Under this combination, several significant QTLs for leaf age growth trajectories were detected on different chromosomes. Our model can be well used to study the genetic architecture of dynamic traits of agricultural values.

A Modified Dynamic Evolving Neural-Fuzzy Approach to Modeling Customer Satisfaction for Affective Design

PubMed Central

Kwong, C. K.; Fung, K. Y.; Jiang, Huimin; Chan, K. Y.

2013-01-01

Affective design is an important aspect of product development to achieve a competitive edge in the marketplace. A neural-fuzzy network approach has been attempted recently to model customer satisfaction for affective design and it has been proved to be an effective one to deal with the fuzziness and non-linearity of the modeling as well as generate explicit customer satisfaction models. However, such an approach to modeling customer satisfaction has two limitations. First, it is not suitable for the modeling problems which involve a large number of inputs. Second, it cannot adapt to new data sets, given that its structure is fixed once it has been developed. In this paper, a modified dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy approach is proposed to address the above mentioned limitations. A case study on the affective design of mobile phones was conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. Validation tests were conducted and the test results indicated that: (1) the conventional Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) failed to run due to a large number of inputs; (2) the proposed dynamic neural-fuzzy model outperforms the subtractive clustering-based ANFIS model and fuzzy c-means clustering-based ANFIS model in terms of their modeling accuracy and computational effort. PMID:24385884

A modified dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy approach to modeling customer satisfaction for affective design.

PubMed

Kwong, C K; Fung, K Y; Jiang, Huimin; Chan, K Y; Siu, Kin Wai Michael

2013-01-01

Affective design is an important aspect of product development to achieve a competitive edge in the marketplace. A neural-fuzzy network approach has been attempted recently to model customer satisfaction for affective design and it has been proved to be an effective one to deal with the fuzziness and non-linearity of the modeling as well as generate explicit customer satisfaction models. However, such an approach to modeling customer satisfaction has two limitations. First, it is not suitable for the modeling problems which involve a large number of inputs. Second, it cannot adapt to new data sets, given that its structure is fixed once it has been developed. In this paper, a modified dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy approach is proposed to address the above mentioned limitations. A case study on the affective design of mobile phones was conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. Validation tests were conducted and the test results indicated that: (1) the conventional Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) failed to run due to a large number of inputs; (2) the proposed dynamic neural-fuzzy model outperforms the subtractive clustering-based ANFIS model and fuzzy c-means clustering-based ANFIS model in terms of their modeling accuracy and computational effort.

Predictability analysis and validation of a low-dimensional model - an application to the dynamics of cereal crops observed from satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mangiarotti, Sylvain; Drapeau, Laurent

2013-04-01

The global modeling approach aims to obtain parsimonious models of observed dynamics from few or single time series (Letellier et al. 2009). Specific algorithms were developed and validated for this purpose (Mangiarotti et al. 2012a). This approach was applied to the dynamics of cereal crops in semi-arid region using the vegetation index derived from satellite data as a proxy of the dynamics. A low-dimensional autonomous model could be obtained. The corresponding attractor is characteristic of weakly dissipative chaos and exhibits a toroidal-like structure. At present, only few theoretical cases of such chaos are known, and none was obtained from real world observations. Under smooth conditions, a robust validation of three-dimensional chaotic models can be usually performed based on the topological approach (Gilmore 1998). Such approach becomes more difficult for weakly dissipative systems, and almost impossible under noisy observational conditions. For this reason, another validation approach is developed which consists in comparing the forecasting skill of the model to other forecasts for which no dynamical model is required. A data assimilation process is associated to the model to estimate the model's skill; several schemes are tested (simple re-initialization, Extended and Ensemble Kalman Filters and Back and Forth Nudging). Forecasts without model are performed based on the search of analogous states in the phase space (Mangiarotti et al. 2012b). The comparison reveals the quality of the model's forecasts at short to moderate horizons and contributes to validate the model. These results suggest that the dynamics of cereal crops can be reasonably approximated by low-dimensional chaotic models, and also bring out powerful arguments for chaos. Chaotic models have often been used as benchmark to test data assimilation schemes; the present work shows that such tests may not only have a theoretical interest, but also almost direct applicative potential. Moreover, other global models could be obtained for other regions. The model considered here is not a particular case which highlights the usefulness to investigate and to widen this field of modeling and research. References: Letellier, C., Aguirre, L.A., Freitas, U.S., 2009. Frequently asked questions about global modeling. Chaos, 19, doi:10.1063/1.3125705. Gilmore R., 1998. Topological analysis of chaotic dynamical systems. Review of Modern Physics, 70, 1455-1530. Mangiarotti, S., Coudret, R., Drapreau, L., Jarlan, L., 2012a. Polynomial Search and Global Modeling - two algorithms for modelling chaos. Physical Review E, 86(4), 046205. Mangiarotti, S., Mazzega, P., Mougin, E., Hiernaux, P., 2012b. Predictability of vegetation cycles over the semi-arid region of Gourma (Mali) from forecasts of AVHRR-NDVI signals. Remote Sensing of Environment, 123, 246-257.

Integrating Intracellular Dynamics Using CompuCell3D and Bionetsolver: Applications to Multiscale Modelling of Cancer Cell Growth and Invasion

PubMed Central

Andasari, Vivi; Roper, Ryan T.; Swat, Maciej H.; Chaplain, Mark A. J.

2012-01-01

In this paper we present a multiscale, individual-based simulation environment that integrates CompuCell3D for lattice-based modelling on the cellular level and Bionetsolver for intracellular modelling. CompuCell3D or CC3D provides an implementation of the lattice-based Cellular Potts Model or CPM (also known as the Glazier-Graner-Hogeweg or GGH model) and a Monte Carlo method based on the metropolis algorithm for system evolution. The integration of CC3D for cellular systems with Bionetsolver for subcellular systems enables us to develop a multiscale mathematical model and to study the evolution of cell behaviour due to the dynamics inside of the cells, capturing aspects of cell behaviour and interaction that is not possible using continuum approaches. We then apply this multiscale modelling technique to a model of cancer growth and invasion, based on a previously published model of Ramis-Conde et al. (2008) where individual cell behaviour is driven by a molecular network describing the dynamics of E-cadherin and -catenin. In this model, which we refer to as the centre-based model, an alternative individual-based modelling technique was used, namely, a lattice-free approach. In many respects, the GGH or CPM methodology and the approach of the centre-based model have the same overall goal, that is to mimic behaviours and interactions of biological cells. Although the mathematical foundations and computational implementations of the two approaches are very different, the results of the presented simulations are compatible with each other, suggesting that by using individual-based approaches we can formulate a natural way of describing complex multi-cell, multiscale models. The ability to easily reproduce results of one modelling approach using an alternative approach is also essential from a model cross-validation standpoint and also helps to identify any modelling artefacts specific to a given computational approach. PMID:22461894

Locomotion Dynamics for Bio-inspired Robots with Soft Appendages: Application to Flapping Flight and Passive Swimming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyer, Frédéric; Porez, Mathieu; Morsli, Ferhat; Morel, Yannick

2017-08-01

In animal locomotion, either in fish or flying insects, the use of flexible terminal organs or appendages greatly improves the performance of locomotion (thrust and lift). In this article, we propose a general unified framework for modeling and simulating the (bio-inspired) locomotion of robots using soft organs. The proposed approach is based on the model of Mobile Multibody Systems (MMS). The distributed flexibilities are modeled according to two major approaches: the Floating Frame Approach (FFA) and the Geometrically Exact Approach (GEA). Encompassing these two approaches in the Newton-Euler modeling formalism of robotics, this article proposes a unique modeling framework suited to the fast numerical integration of the dynamics of a MMS in both the FFA and the GEA. This general framework is applied on two illustrative examples drawn from bio-inspired locomotion: the passive swimming in von Karman Vortex Street, and the hovering flight with flexible flapping wings.

Agent-based modeling: a new approach for theory building in social psychology.

PubMed

Smith, Eliot R; Conrey, Frederica R

2007-02-01

Most social and psychological phenomena occur not as the result of isolated decisions by individuals but rather as the result of repeated interactions between multiple individuals over time. Yet the theory-building and modeling techniques most commonly used in social psychology are less than ideal for understanding such dynamic and interactive processes. This article describes an alternative approach to theory building, agent-based modeling (ABM), which involves simulation of large numbers of autonomous agents that interact with each other and with a simulated environment and the observation of emergent patterns from their interactions. The authors believe that the ABM approach is better able than prevailing approaches in the field, variable-based modeling (VBM) techniques such as causal modeling, to capture types of complex, dynamic, interactive processes so important in the social world. The article elaborates several important contrasts between ABM and VBM and offers specific recommendations for learning more and applying the ABM approach.

Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

2017-11-01

Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

Dynamic multipopulation and density dependent evolutionary games related to replicator dynamics. A metasimplex concept.

PubMed

Argasinski, Krzysztof

2006-07-01

This paper contains the basic extensions of classical evolutionary games (multipopulation and density dependent models). It is shown that classical bimatrix approach is inconsistent with other approaches because it does not depend on proportion between populations. The main conclusion is that interspecific proportion parameter is important and must be considered in multipopulation models. The paper provides a synthesis of both extensions (a metasimplex concept) which solves the problem intrinsic in the bimatrix model. It allows us to model interactions among any number of subpopulations including density dependence effects. We prove that all modern approaches to evolutionary games are closely related. All evolutionary models (except classical bimatrix approaches) can be reduced to a single population general model by a simple change of variables. Differences between classic bimatrix evolutionary games and a new model which is dependent on interspecific proportion are shown by examples.

Generalized reconfigurable memristive dynamical system (MDS) for neuromorphic applications

PubMed Central

Bavandpour, Mohammad; Soleimani, Hamid; Linares-Barranco, Bernabé; Abbott, Derek; Chua, Leon O.

2015-01-01

This study firstly presents (i) a novel general cellular mapping scheme for two dimensional neuromorphic dynamical systems such as bio-inspired neuron models, and (ii) an efficient mixed analog-digital circuit, which can be conveniently implemented on a hybrid memristor-crossbar/CMOS platform, for hardware implementation of the scheme. This approach employs 4n memristors and no switch for implementing an n-cell system in comparison with 2n2 memristors and 2n switches of a Cellular Memristive Dynamical System (CMDS). Moreover, this approach allows for dynamical variables with both analog and one-hot digital values opening a wide range of choices for interconnections and networking schemes. Dynamical response analyses show that this circuit exhibits various responses based on the underlying bifurcation scenarios which determine the main characteristics of the neuromorphic dynamical systems. Due to high programmability of the circuit, it can be applied to a variety of learning systems, real-time applications, and analytically indescribable dynamical systems. We simulate the FitzHugh-Nagumo (FHN), Adaptive Exponential (AdEx) integrate and fire, and Izhikevich neuron models on our platform, and investigate the dynamical behaviors of these circuits as case studies. Moreover, error analysis shows that our approach is suitably accurate. We also develop a simple hardware prototype for experimental demonstration of our approach. PMID:26578867

Generalized reconfigurable memristive dynamical system (MDS) for neuromorphic applications.

PubMed

Bavandpour, Mohammad; Soleimani, Hamid; Linares-Barranco, Bernabé; Abbott, Derek; Chua, Leon O

2015-01-01

This study firstly presents (i) a novel general cellular mapping scheme for two dimensional neuromorphic dynamical systems such as bio-inspired neuron models, and (ii) an efficient mixed analog-digital circuit, which can be conveniently implemented on a hybrid memristor-crossbar/CMOS platform, for hardware implementation of the scheme. This approach employs 4n memristors and no switch for implementing an n-cell system in comparison with 2n (2) memristors and 2n switches of a Cellular Memristive Dynamical System (CMDS). Moreover, this approach allows for dynamical variables with both analog and one-hot digital values opening a wide range of choices for interconnections and networking schemes. Dynamical response analyses show that this circuit exhibits various responses based on the underlying bifurcation scenarios which determine the main characteristics of the neuromorphic dynamical systems. Due to high programmability of the circuit, it can be applied to a variety of learning systems, real-time applications, and analytically indescribable dynamical systems. We simulate the FitzHugh-Nagumo (FHN), Adaptive Exponential (AdEx) integrate and fire, and Izhikevich neuron models on our platform, and investigate the dynamical behaviors of these circuits as case studies. Moreover, error analysis shows that our approach is suitably accurate. We also develop a simple hardware prototype for experimental demonstration of our approach.

Plenary Speech: Researching Complex Dynamic Systems--"Retrodictive Qualitative Modelling" in the Language Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dörnyei, Zoltán

2014-01-01

While approaching second language acquisition from a complex dynamic systems perspective makes a lot of intuitive sense, it is difficult for a number of reasons to operationalise such a dynamic approach in research terms. For example, the most common research paradigms in the social sciences tend to examine variables in relative isolation rather…

A new approach for describing glass transition kinetics.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vasin, N. M.; Shchelkachev, M. G.; Vinokur, V. M.

2010-04-01

We use a functional integral technique generalizing the Keldysh diagram technique to describe glass transition kinetics. We show that the Keldysh functional approach takes the dynamical determinant arising in the glass dynamics into account exactly and generalizes the traditional approach based on using the supersymmetric dynamic generating functional method. In contrast to the supersymmetric method, this approach allows avoiding additional Grassmannian fields and tracking the violation of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem explicitly. We use this method to describe the dynamics of an Edwards-Anderson soft spin-glass-type model near the paramagnet-glass transition. We show that a Vogel-Fulcher-type dynamics arises in the fluctuation regionmore » only if the fluctuation-dissipation theorem is violated in the process of dynamical renormalization of the Keldysh action in the replica space.« less

How can we model selectively neutral density dependence in evolutionary games.

PubMed

Argasinski, Krzysztof; Kozłowski, Jan

2008-03-01

The problem of density dependence appears in all approaches to the modelling of population dynamics. It is pertinent to classic models (i.e., Lotka-Volterra's), and also population genetics and game theoretical models related to the replicator dynamics. There is no density dependence in the classic formulation of replicator dynamics, which means that population size may grow to infinity. Therefore the question arises: How is unlimited population growth suppressed in frequency-dependent models? Two categories of solutions can be found in the literature. In the first, replicator dynamics is independent of background fitness. In the second type of solution, a multiplicative suppression coefficient is used, as in a logistic equation. Both approaches have disadvantages. The first one is incompatible with the methods of life history theory and basic probabilistic intuitions. The logistic type of suppression of per capita growth rate stops trajectories of selection when population size reaches the maximal value (carrying capacity); hence this method does not satisfy selective neutrality. To overcome these difficulties, we must explicitly consider turn-over of individuals dependent on mortality rate. This new approach leads to two interesting predictions. First, the equilibrium value of population size is lower than carrying capacity and depends on the mortality rate. Second, although the phase portrait of selection trajectories is the same as in density-independent replicator dynamics, pace of selection slows down when population size approaches equilibrium, and then remains constant and dependent on the rate of turn-over of individuals.

Structural uncertainty of downscaled climate model output in a difficult-to-resolve environment: data sparseness and parameterization error contribution to statistical and dynamical downscaling output in the U.S. Caribbean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Grade, S.; Bowden, J.; Henareh Khalyani, A.; Wootten, A.; Misra, V.; Collazo, J.; Gould, W. A.; Boyles, R.

2016-12-01

Sub-tropical island nations may be particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change because of predicted changes in the hydrologic cycle that would lead to significant drying in the future. However, decision makers in these regions have seen their adaptation planning efforts frustrated by the lack of island-resolving climate model information. Recently, two investigations have used statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques to develop climate change projections for the U.S. Caribbean region (Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands). We compare the results from these two studies with respect to three commonly downscaled CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). The GCMs were dynamically downscaled at a convective-permitting scale using two different regional climate models. The statistical downscaling approach was conducted at locations with long-term climate observations and then further post-processed using climatologically aided interpolation (yielding two sets of projections). Overall, both approaches face unique challenges. The statistical approach suffers from a lack of observations necessary to constrain the model, particularly at the land-ocean boundary and in complex terrain. The dynamically downscaled model output has a systematic dry bias over the island despite ample availability of moisture in the atmospheric column. Notwithstanding these differences, both approaches are consistent in projecting a drier climate that is driven by the strong global-scale anthropogenic forcing.

A modeling technique for STOVL ejector and volume dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drummond, C. K.; Barankiewicz, W. S.

1990-01-01

New models for thrust augmenting ejector performance prediction and feeder duct dynamic analysis are presented and applied to a proposed Short Take Off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft configuration. Central to the analysis is the nontraditional treatment of the time-dependent volume integrals in the otherwise conventional control-volume approach. In the case of the thrust augmenting ejector, the analysis required a new relationship for transfer of kinetic energy from the primary flow to the secondary flow. Extraction of the required empirical corrections from current steady-state experimental data is discussed; a possible approach for modeling insight through Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is presented.

Inferring Ice Thickness from a Glacier Dynamics Model and Multiple Surface Datasets.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Y.; Haran, M.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

The future behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may have a major impact on future climate. For instance, ice sheet melt may contribute significantly to global sea level rise. Understanding the current state of WAIS is therefore of great interest. WAIS is drained by fast-flowing glaciers which are major contributors to ice loss. Hence, understanding the stability and dynamics of glaciers is critical for predicting the future of the ice sheet. Glacier dynamics are driven by the interplay between the topography, temperature and basal conditions beneath the ice. A glacier dynamics model describes the interactions between these processes. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that integrates multiple ice sheet surface data sets with a glacier dynamics model. Our approach allows us to (1) infer important parameters describing the glacier dynamics, (2) learn about ice sheet thickness, and (3) account for errors in the observations and the model. Because we have relatively dense and accurate ice thickness data from the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, we use these data to validate the proposed approach. The long-term goal of this work is to have a general model that may be used to study multiple glaciers in the Antarctic.

Efficient Optimization of Stimuli for Model-Based Design of Experiments to Resolve Dynamical Uncertainty.

PubMed

Mdluli, Thembi; Buzzard, Gregery T; Rundell, Ann E

2015-09-01

This model-based design of experiments (MBDOE) method determines the input magnitudes of an experimental stimuli to apply and the associated measurements that should be taken to optimally constrain the uncertain dynamics of a biological system under study. The ideal global solution for this experiment design problem is generally computationally intractable because of parametric uncertainties in the mathematical model of the biological system. Others have addressed this issue by limiting the solution to a local estimate of the model parameters. Here we present an approach that is independent of the local parameter constraint. This approach is made computationally efficient and tractable by the use of: (1) sparse grid interpolation that approximates the biological system dynamics, (2) representative parameters that uniformly represent the data-consistent dynamical space, and (3) probability weights of the represented experimentally distinguishable dynamics. Our approach identifies data-consistent representative parameters using sparse grid interpolants, constructs the optimal input sequence from a greedy search, and defines the associated optimal measurements using a scenario tree. We explore the optimality of this MBDOE algorithm using a 3-dimensional Hes1 model and a 19-dimensional T-cell receptor model. The 19-dimensional T-cell model also demonstrates the MBDOE algorithm's scalability to higher dimensions. In both cases, the dynamical uncertainty region that bounds the trajectories of the target system states were reduced by as much as 86% and 99% respectively after completing the designed experiments in silico. Our results suggest that for resolving dynamical uncertainty, the ability to design an input sequence paired with its associated measurements is particularly important when limited by the number of measurements.

Efficient Optimization of Stimuli for Model-Based Design of Experiments to Resolve Dynamical Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Mdluli, Thembi; Buzzard, Gregery T.; Rundell, Ann E.

2015-01-01

This model-based design of experiments (MBDOE) method determines the input magnitudes of an experimental stimuli to apply and the associated measurements that should be taken to optimally constrain the uncertain dynamics of a biological system under study. The ideal global solution for this experiment design problem is generally computationally intractable because of parametric uncertainties in the mathematical model of the biological system. Others have addressed this issue by limiting the solution to a local estimate of the model parameters. Here we present an approach that is independent of the local parameter constraint. This approach is made computationally efficient and tractable by the use of: (1) sparse grid interpolation that approximates the biological system dynamics, (2) representative parameters that uniformly represent the data-consistent dynamical space, and (3) probability weights of the represented experimentally distinguishable dynamics. Our approach identifies data-consistent representative parameters using sparse grid interpolants, constructs the optimal input sequence from a greedy search, and defines the associated optimal measurements using a scenario tree. We explore the optimality of this MBDOE algorithm using a 3-dimensional Hes1 model and a 19-dimensional T-cell receptor model. The 19-dimensional T-cell model also demonstrates the MBDOE algorithm’s scalability to higher dimensions. In both cases, the dynamical uncertainty region that bounds the trajectories of the target system states were reduced by as much as 86% and 99% respectively after completing the designed experiments in silico. Our results suggest that for resolving dynamical uncertainty, the ability to design an input sequence paired with its associated measurements is particularly important when limited by the number of measurements. PMID:26379275

Dynamic pathway modeling of signal transduction networks: a domain-oriented approach.

PubMed

Conzelmann, Holger; Gilles, Ernst-Dieter

2008-01-01

Mathematical models of biological processes become more and more important in biology. The aim is a holistic understanding of how processes such as cellular communication, cell division, regulation, homeostasis, or adaptation work, how they are regulated, and how they react to perturbations. The great complexity of most of these processes necessitates the generation of mathematical models in order to address these questions. In this chapter we provide an introduction to basic principles of dynamic modeling and highlight both problems and chances of dynamic modeling in biology. The main focus will be on modeling of s transduction pathways, which requires the application of a special modeling approach. A common pattern, especially in eukaryotic signaling systems, is the formation of multi protein signaling complexes. Even for a small number of interacting proteins the number of distinguishable molecular species can be extremely high. This combinatorial complexity is due to the great number of distinct binding domains of many receptors and scaffold proteins involved in signal transduction. However, these problems can be overcome using a new domain-oriented modeling approach, which makes it possible to handle complex and branched signaling pathways.

Using an empirical and rule-based modeling approach to map cause of disturbance in U.S

Treesearch

Todd A. Schroeder; Gretchen G. Moisen; Karen Schleeweis; Chris Toney; Warren B. Cohen; Zhiqiang Yang; Elizabeth A. Freeman

2015-01-01

Recently completing over a decade of research, the NASA/NACP funded North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has led to several important advancements in the way U.S. forest disturbance dynamics are mapped at regional and continental scales. One major contribution has been the development of an empirical and rule-based modeling approach which addresses two of the...

An analytic modeling and system identification study of rotor/fuselage dynamics at hover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hong, Steven W.; Curtiss, H. C., Jr.

1993-01-01

A combination of analytic modeling and system identification methods have been used to develop an improved dynamic model describing the response of articulated rotor helicopters to control inputs. A high-order linearized model of coupled rotor/body dynamics including flap and lag degrees of freedom and inflow dynamics with literal coefficients is compared to flight test data from single rotor helicopters in the near hover trim condition. The identification problem was formulated using the maximum likelihood function in the time domain. The dynamic model with literal coefficients was used to generate the model states, and the model was parametrized in terms of physical constants of the aircraft rather than the stability derivatives resulting in a significant reduction in the number of quantities to be identified. The likelihood function was optimized using the genetic algorithm approach. This method proved highly effective in producing an estimated model from flight test data which included coupled fuselage/rotor dynamics. Using this approach it has been shown that blade flexibility is a significant contributing factor to the discrepancies between theory and experiment shown in previous studies. Addition of flexible modes, properly incorporating the constraint due to the lag dampers, results in excellent agreement between flight test and theory, especially in the high frequency range.

An analytic modeling and system identification study of rotor/fuselage dynamics at hover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hong, Steven W.; Curtiss, H. C., Jr.

1993-01-01

A combination of analytic modeling and system identification methods have been used to develop an improved dynamic model describing the response of articulated rotor helicopters to control inputs. A high-order linearized model of coupled rotor/body dynamics including flap and lag degrees of freedom and inflow dynamics with literal coefficients is compared to flight test data from single rotor helicopters in the near hover trim condition. The identification problem was formulated using the maximum likelihood function in the time domain. The dynamic model with literal coefficients was used to generate the model states, and the model was parametrized in terms of physical constants of the aircraft rather than the stability derivatives, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of quantities to be identified. The likelihood function was optimized using the genetic algorithm approach. This method proved highly effective in producing an estimated model from flight test data which included coupled fuselage/rotor dynamics. Using this approach it has been shown that blade flexibility is a significant contributing factor to the discrepancies between theory and experiment shown in previous studies. Addition of flexible modes, properly incorporating the constraint due to the lag dampers, results in excellent agreement between flight test and theory, especially in the high frequency range.

An experimental study of nonlinear dynamic system identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stry, Greselda I.; Mook, D. Joseph

1990-01-01

A technique for robust identification of nonlinear dynamic systems is developed and illustrated using both simulations and analog experiments. The technique is based on the Minimum Model Error optimal estimation approach. A detailed literature review is included in which fundamental differences between the current approach and previous work is described. The most significant feature of the current work is the ability to identify nonlinear dynamic systems without prior assumptions regarding the form of the nonlinearities, in constrast to existing nonlinear identification approaches which usually require detailed assumptions of the nonlinearities. The example illustrations indicate that the method is robust with respect to prior ignorance of the model, and with respect to measurement noise, measurement frequency, and measurement record length.

Reverse engineering a social agent-based hidden markov model--visage.

PubMed

Chen, Hung-Ching Justin; Goldberg, Mark; Magdon-Ismail, Malik; Wallace, William A

2008-12-01

We present a machine learning approach to discover the agent dynamics that drives the evolution of the social groups in a community. We set up the problem by introducing an agent-based hidden Markov model for the agent dynamics: an agent's actions are determined by micro-laws. Nonetheless, We learn the agent dynamics from the observed communications without knowing state transitions. Our approach is to identify the appropriate micro-laws corresponding to an identification of the appropriate parameters in the model. The model identification problem is then formulated as a mixed optimization problem. To solve the problem, we develop a multistage learning process for determining the group structure, the group evolution, and the micro-laws of a community based on the observed set of communications among actors, without knowing the semantic contents. Finally, to test the quality of our approximations and the feasibility of the approach, we present the results of extensive experiments on synthetic data as well as the results on real communities, such as Enron email and Movie newsgroups. Insight into agent dynamics helps us understand the driving forces behind social evolution.

Dynamic fuzzy modeling of storm water infiltration in urban fractured aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hong, Y.-S.; Rosen, Michael R.; Reeves, R.R.

2002-01-01

In an urban fractured-rock aquifer in the Mt. Eden area of Auckland, New Zealand, disposal of storm water is via "soakholes" drilled directly into the top of the fractured basalt rock. The dynamic response of the groundwater level due to the storm water infiltration shows characteristics of a strongly time-varying system. A dynamic fuzzy modeling approach, which is based on multiple local models that are weighted using fuzzy membership functions, has been developed to identify and predict groundwater level fluctuations caused by storm water infiltration. The dynamic fuzzy model is initialized by the fuzzy clustering algorithm and optimized by the gradient-descent algorithm in order to effectively derive the multiple local models-each of which is associated with a locally valid model that represents the groundwater level state as a response to different intensities of rainfall events. The results have shown that even if the number of fuzzy local models derived is small, the fuzzy modeling approach developed provides good prediction results despite the highly time-varying nature of this urban fractured-rock aquifer system. Further, it allows interpretable representations of the dynamic behavior of the groundwater system due to storm water infiltration.

Shape Distributions of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems for Video-Based Inference.

PubMed

Venkataraman, Vinay; Turaga, Pavan

2016-12-01

This paper presents a shape-theoretic framework for dynamical analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems which appear frequently in several video-based inference tasks. Traditional approaches to dynamical modeling have included linear and nonlinear methods with their respective drawbacks. A novel approach we propose is the use of descriptors of the shape of the dynamical attractor as a feature representation of nature of dynamics. The proposed framework has two main advantages over traditional approaches: a) representation of the dynamical system is derived directly from the observational data, without any inherent assumptions, and b) the proposed features show stability under different time-series lengths where traditional dynamical invariants fail. We illustrate our idea using nonlinear dynamical models such as Lorenz and Rossler systems, where our feature representations (shape distribution) support our hypothesis that the local shape of the reconstructed phase space can be used as a discriminative feature. Our experimental analyses on these models also indicate that the proposed framework show stability for different time-series lengths, which is useful when the available number of samples are small/variable. The specific applications of interest in this paper are: 1) activity recognition using motion capture and RGBD sensors, 2) activity quality assessment for applications in stroke rehabilitation, and 3) dynamical scene classification. We provide experimental validation through action and gesture recognition experiments on motion capture and Kinect datasets. In all these scenarios, we show experimental evidence of the favorable properties of the proposed representation.

Using process algebra to develop predator-prey models of within-host parasite dynamics.

PubMed

McCaig, Chris; Fenton, Andy; Graham, Andrea; Shankland, Carron; Norman, Rachel

2013-07-21

As a first approximation of immune-mediated within-host parasite dynamics we can consider the immune response as a predator, with the parasite as its prey. In the ecological literature of predator-prey interactions there are a number of different functional responses used to describe how a predator reproduces in response to consuming prey. Until recently most of the models of the immune system that have taken a predator-prey approach have used simple mass action dynamics to capture the interaction between the immune response and the parasite. More recently Fenton and Perkins (2010) employed three of the most commonly used prey-dependent functional response terms from the ecological literature. In this paper we make use of a technique from computing science, process algebra, to develop mathematical models. The novelty of the process algebra approach is to allow stochastic models of the population (parasite and immune cells) to be developed from rules of individual cell behaviour. By using this approach in which individual cellular behaviour is captured we have derived a ratio-dependent response similar to that seen in the previous models of immune-mediated parasite dynamics, confirming that, whilst this type of term is controversial in ecological predator-prey models, it is appropriate for models of the immune system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of two approaches to modelling snow cover dynamics at the Polish Polar Station at Hornsund

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luks, B.; Osuch, M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

2012-04-01

We compare two approaches to modelling snow cover dynamics at the Polish Polar Station at Hornsund. In the first approach we apply physically-based Utah Energy Balance Snow Accumulation and Melt Model (UEB) (Tarboton et al., 1995; Tarboton and Luce, 1996). The model uses a lumped representation of the snowpack with two primary state variables: snow water equivalence and energy. Its main driving inputs are: air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity and radiation (estimated from the diurnal temperature range). Those variables are used for physically-based calculations of radiative, sensible, latent and advective heat exchanges with a 3 hours time step. The second method is an application of a statistically efficient lumped parameter time series approach to modelling the dynamics of snow cover , based on daily meteorological measurements from the same area. A dynamic Stochastic Transfer Function model is developed that follows the Data Based Mechanistic approach, where a stochastic data-based identification of model structure and an estimation of its parameters are followed by a physical interpretation. We focus on the analysis of uncertainty of both model outputs. In the time series approach, the applied techniques also provide estimates of the modeling errors and the uncertainty of the model parameters. In the first, physically-based approach the applied UEB model is deterministic. It assumes that the observations are without errors and that the model structure perfectly describes the processes within the snowpack. To take into account the model and observation errors, we applied a version of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation technique (GLUE). This technique also provide estimates of the modelling errors and the uncertainty of the model parameters. The observed snowpack water equivalent values are compared with those simulated with 95% confidence bounds. This work was supported by National Science Centre of Poland (grant no. 7879/B/P01/2011/40). Tarboton, D. G., T. G. Chowdhury and T. H. Jackson, 1995. A Spatially Distributed Energy Balance Snowmelt Model. In K. A. Tonnessen, M. W. Williams and M. Tranter (Ed.), Proceedings of a Boulder Symposium, July 3-14, IAHS Publ. no. 228, pp. 141-155. Tarboton, D. G. and C. H. Luce, 1996. Utah Energy Balance Snow Accumulation and Melt Model (UEB). Computer model technical description and users guide, Utah Water Research Laboratory and USDA Forest Service Intermountain Research Station (http://www.engineering.usu.edu/dtarb/). 64 pp.

Hybrid grammar-based approach to nonlinear dynamical system identification from biological time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinney, B. A.; Crowe, J. E., Jr.; Voss, H. U.; Crooke, P. S.; Barney, N.; Moore, J. H.

2006-02-01

We introduce a grammar-based hybrid approach to reverse engineering nonlinear ordinary differential equation models from observed time series. This hybrid approach combines a genetic algorithm to search the space of model architectures with a Kalman filter to estimate the model parameters. Domain-specific knowledge is used in a context-free grammar to restrict the search space for the functional form of the target model. We find that the hybrid approach outperforms a pure evolutionary algorithm method, and we observe features in the evolution of the dynamical models that correspond with the emergence of favorable model components. We apply the hybrid method to both artificially generated time series and experimentally observed protein levels from subjects who received the smallpox vaccine. From the observed data, we infer a cytokine protein interaction network for an individual’s response to the smallpox vaccine.

Automated chemical kinetic modeling via hybrid reactive molecular dynamics and quantum chemistry simulations.

PubMed

Döntgen, Malte; Schmalz, Felix; Kopp, Wassja A; Kröger, Leif C; Leonhard, Kai

2018-06-13

An automated scheme for obtaining chemical kinetic models from scratch using reactive molecular dynamics and quantum chemistry simulations is presented. This methodology combines the phase space sampling of reactive molecular dynamics with the thermochemistry and kinetics prediction capabilities of quantum mechanics. This scheme provides the NASA polynomial and modified Arrhenius equation parameters for all species and reactions that are observed during the simulation and supplies them in the ChemKin format. The ab initio level of theory for predictions is easily exchangeable and the presently used G3MP2 level of theory is found to reliably reproduce hydrogen and methane oxidation thermochemistry and kinetics data. Chemical kinetic models obtained with this approach are ready-to-use for, e.g., ignition delay time simulations, as shown for hydrogen combustion. The presented extension of the ChemTraYzer approach can be used as a basis for methodologically advancing chemical kinetic modeling schemes and as a black-box approach to generate chemical kinetic models.

Emergent behaviors of the Schrödinger-Lohe model on cooperative-competitive networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huh, Hyungjin; Ha, Seung-Yeal; Kim, Dohyun

2017-12-01

We present several sufficient frameworks leading to the emergent behaviors of the coupled Schrödinger-Lohe (S-L) model under the same one-body external potential on cooperative-competitive networks. The S-L model was first introduced as a possible phenomenological model exhibiting quantum synchronization and its emergent dynamics on all-to-all cooperative networks has been treated via two distinct approaches, Lyapunov functional approach and the finite-dimensional reduction based on pairwise correlations. In this paper, we further generalize the finite-dimensional dynamical systems approach for pairwise correlation functions on cooperative-competitive networks and provide several sufficient frameworks leading to the collective exponential synchronization. For small systems consisting of three and four quantum subsystem, we also show that the system for pairwise correlations can be reduced to the Lotka-Volterra model with cooperative and competitive interactions, in which lots of interesting dynamical patterns appear, e.g., existence of closed orbits and limit-cycles.

Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Jing; Yuan, Ying

2017-12-01

Most existing methods for mediation analysis assume that mediation is a stationary, time-invariant process, which overlooks the inherently dynamic nature of many human psychological processes and behavioral activities. In this article, we consider mediation as a dynamic process that continuously changes over time. We propose Bayesian multilevel time-varying coefficient models to describe and estimate such dynamic mediation effects. By taking the nonparametric penalized spline approach, the proposed method is flexible and able to accommodate any shape of the relationship between time and mediation effects. Simulation studies show that the proposed method works well and faithfully reflects the true nature of the mediation process. By modeling mediation effect nonparametrically as a continuous function of time, our method provides a valuable tool to help researchers obtain a more complete understanding of the dynamic nature of the mediation process underlying psychological and behavioral phenomena. We also briefly discuss an alternative approach of using dynamic autoregressive mediation model to estimate the dynamic mediation effect. The computer code is provided to implement the proposed Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Data-driven Modeling of Metal-oxide Sensors with Dynamic Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosangi, Rakesh; Gutierrez-Osuna, Ricardo

2011-09-01

We present a data-driven probabilistic framework to model the transient response of MOX sensors modulated with a sequence of voltage steps. Analytical models of MOX sensors are usually built based on the physico-chemical properties of the sensing materials. Although building these models provides an insight into the sensor behavior, they also require a thorough understanding of the underlying operating principles. Here we propose a data-driven approach to characterize the dynamical relationship between sensor inputs and outputs. Namely, we use dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), probabilistic models that represent temporal relations between a set of random variables. We identify a set of control variables that influence the sensor responses, create a graphical representation that captures the causal relations between these variables, and finally train the model with experimental data. We validated the approach on experimental data in terms of predictive accuracy and classification performance. Our results show that DBNs can accurately predict the dynamic response of MOX sensors, as well as capture the discriminatory information present in the sensor transients.

Model reduction for agent-based social simulation: coarse-graining a civil violence model.

PubMed

Zou, Yu; Fonoberov, Vladimir A; Fonoberova, Maria; Mezic, Igor; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G

2012-06-01

Agent-based modeling (ABM) constitutes a powerful computational tool for the exploration of phenomena involving emergent dynamic behavior in the social sciences. This paper demonstrates a computer-assisted approach that bridges the significant gap between the single-agent microscopic level and the macroscopic (coarse-grained population) level, where fundamental questions must be rationally answered and policies guiding the emergent dynamics devised. Our approach will be illustrated through an agent-based model of civil violence. This spatiotemporally varying ABM incorporates interactions between a heterogeneous population of citizens [active (insurgent), inactive, or jailed] and a population of police officers. Detailed simulations exhibit an equilibrium punctuated by periods of social upheavals. We show how to effectively reduce the agent-based dynamics to a stochastic model with only two coarse-grained degrees of freedom: the number of jailed citizens and the number of active ones. The coarse-grained model captures the ABM dynamics while drastically reducing the computation time (by a factor of approximately 20).

Model reduction for agent-based social simulation: Coarse-graining a civil violence model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Yu; Fonoberov, Vladimir A.; Fonoberova, Maria; Mezic, Igor; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.

2012-06-01

Agent-based modeling (ABM) constitutes a powerful computational tool for the exploration of phenomena involving emergent dynamic behavior in the social sciences. This paper demonstrates a computer-assisted approach that bridges the significant gap between the single-agent microscopic level and the macroscopic (coarse-grained population) level, where fundamental questions must be rationally answered and policies guiding the emergent dynamics devised. Our approach will be illustrated through an agent-based model of civil violence. This spatiotemporally varying ABM incorporates interactions between a heterogeneous population of citizens [active (insurgent), inactive, or jailed] and a population of police officers. Detailed simulations exhibit an equilibrium punctuated by periods of social upheavals. We show how to effectively reduce the agent-based dynamics to a stochastic model with only two coarse-grained degrees of freedom: the number of jailed citizens and the number of active ones. The coarse-grained model captures the ABM dynamics while drastically reducing the computation time (by a factor of approximately 20).

ChainMail based neural dynamics modeling of soft tissue deformation for surgical simulation.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinao; Zhong, Yongmin; Smith, Julian; Gu, Chengfan

2017-07-20

Realistic and real-time modeling and simulation of soft tissue deformation is a fundamental research issue in the field of surgical simulation. In this paper, a novel cellular neural network approach is presented for modeling and simulation of soft tissue deformation by combining neural dynamics of cellular neural network with ChainMail mechanism. The proposed method formulates the problem of elastic deformation into cellular neural network activities to avoid the complex computation of elasticity. The local position adjustments of ChainMail are incorporated into the cellular neural network as the local connectivity of cells, through which the dynamic behaviors of soft tissue deformation are transformed into the neural dynamics of cellular neural network. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed neural network approach is capable of modeling the soft tissues' nonlinear deformation and typical mechanical behaviors. The proposed method not only improves ChainMail's linear deformation with the nonlinear characteristics of neural dynamics but also enables the cellular neural network to follow the principle of continuum mechanics to simulate soft tissue deformation.

A Multiscale Survival Process for Modeling Human Activity Patterns.

PubMed

Zhang, Tianyang; Cui, Peng; Song, Chaoming; Zhu, Wenwu; Yang, Shiqiang

2016-01-01

Human activity plays a central role in understanding large-scale social dynamics. It is well documented that individual activity pattern follows bursty dynamics characterized by heavy-tailed interevent time distributions. Here we study a large-scale online chatting dataset consisting of 5,549,570 users, finding that individual activity pattern varies with timescales whereas existing models only approximate empirical observations within a limited timescale. We propose a novel approach that models the intensity rate of an individual triggering an activity. We demonstrate that the model precisely captures corresponding human dynamics across multiple timescales over five orders of magnitudes. Our model also allows extracting the population heterogeneity of activity patterns, characterized by a set of individual-specific ingredients. Integrating our approach with social interactions leads to a wide range of implications.

A Dynamical System Approach Explaining the Process of Development by Introducing Different Time-scales.

PubMed

Hashemi Kamangar, Somayeh Sadat; Moradimanesh, Zahra; Mokhtari, Setareh; Bakouie, Fatemeh

2018-06-11

A developmental process can be described as changes through time within a complex dynamic system. The self-organized changes and emergent behaviour during development can be described and modeled as a dynamical system. We propose a dynamical system approach to answer the main question in human cognitive development i.e. the changes during development happens continuously or in discontinuous stages. Within this approach there is a concept; the size of time scales, which can be used to address the aforementioned question. We introduce a framework, by considering the concept of time-scale, in which "fast" and "slow" is defined by the size of time-scales. According to our suggested model, the overall pattern of development can be seen as one continuous function, with different time-scales in different time intervals.

Dynamics simulation and controller interfacing for legged robots

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reichler, J.A.; Delcomyn, F.

2000-01-01

Dynamics simulation can play a critical role in the engineering of robotic control code, and there exist a variety of strategies both for building physical models and for interacting with these models. This paper presents an approach to dynamics simulation and controller interfacing for legged robots, and contrasts it to existing approaches. The authors describe dynamics algorithms and contact-resolution strategies for multibody articulated mobile robots based on the decoupled tree-structure approach, and present a novel scripting language that provides a unified framework for control-code interfacing, user-interface design, and data analysis. Special emphasis is placed on facilitating the rapid integration ofmore » control algorithms written in a standard object-oriented language (C++), the production of modular, distributed, reusable controllers, and the use of parameterized signal-transmission properties such as delay, sampling rate, and noise.« less

Hierarchical cluster-based partial least squares regression (HC-PLSR) is an efficient tool for metamodelling of nonlinear dynamic models.

PubMed

Tøndel, Kristin; Indahl, Ulf G; Gjuvsland, Arne B; Vik, Jon Olav; Hunter, Peter; Omholt, Stig W; Martens, Harald

2011-06-01

Deterministic dynamic models of complex biological systems contain a large number of parameters and state variables, related through nonlinear differential equations with various types of feedback. A metamodel of such a dynamic model is a statistical approximation model that maps variation in parameters and initial conditions (inputs) to variation in features of the trajectories of the state variables (outputs) throughout the entire biologically relevant input space. A sufficiently accurate mapping can be exploited both instrumentally and epistemically. Multivariate regression methodology is a commonly used approach for emulating dynamic models. However, when the input-output relations are highly nonlinear or non-monotone, a standard linear regression approach is prone to give suboptimal results. We therefore hypothesised that a more accurate mapping can be obtained by locally linear or locally polynomial regression. We present here a new method for local regression modelling, Hierarchical Cluster-based PLS regression (HC-PLSR), where fuzzy C-means clustering is used to separate the data set into parts according to the structure of the response surface. We compare the metamodelling performance of HC-PLSR with polynomial partial least squares regression (PLSR) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on various systems: six different gene regulatory network models with various types of feedback, a deterministic mathematical model of the mammalian circadian clock and a model of the mouse ventricular myocyte function. Our results indicate that multivariate regression is well suited for emulating dynamic models in systems biology. The hierarchical approach turned out to be superior to both polynomial PLSR and OLS regression in all three test cases. The advantage, in terms of explained variance and prediction accuracy, was largest in systems with highly nonlinear functional relationships and in systems with positive feedback loops. HC-PLSR is a promising approach for metamodelling in systems biology, especially for highly nonlinear or non-monotone parameter to phenotype maps. The algorithm can be flexibly adjusted to suit the complexity of the dynamic model behaviour, inviting automation in the metamodelling of complex systems.

Hierarchical Cluster-based Partial Least Squares Regression (HC-PLSR) is an efficient tool for metamodelling of nonlinear dynamic models

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Deterministic dynamic models of complex biological systems contain a large number of parameters and state variables, related through nonlinear differential equations with various types of feedback. A metamodel of such a dynamic model is a statistical approximation model that maps variation in parameters and initial conditions (inputs) to variation in features of the trajectories of the state variables (outputs) throughout the entire biologically relevant input space. A sufficiently accurate mapping can be exploited both instrumentally and epistemically. Multivariate regression methodology is a commonly used approach for emulating dynamic models. However, when the input-output relations are highly nonlinear or non-monotone, a standard linear regression approach is prone to give suboptimal results. We therefore hypothesised that a more accurate mapping can be obtained by locally linear or locally polynomial regression. We present here a new method for local regression modelling, Hierarchical Cluster-based PLS regression (HC-PLSR), where fuzzy C-means clustering is used to separate the data set into parts according to the structure of the response surface. We compare the metamodelling performance of HC-PLSR with polynomial partial least squares regression (PLSR) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on various systems: six different gene regulatory network models with various types of feedback, a deterministic mathematical model of the mammalian circadian clock and a model of the mouse ventricular myocyte function. Results Our results indicate that multivariate regression is well suited for emulating dynamic models in systems biology. The hierarchical approach turned out to be superior to both polynomial PLSR and OLS regression in all three test cases. The advantage, in terms of explained variance and prediction accuracy, was largest in systems with highly nonlinear functional relationships and in systems with positive feedback loops. Conclusions HC-PLSR is a promising approach for metamodelling in systems biology, especially for highly nonlinear or non-monotone parameter to phenotype maps. The algorithm can be flexibly adjusted to suit the complexity of the dynamic model behaviour, inviting automation in the metamodelling of complex systems. PMID:21627852

Modeling Secondary Organic Aerosols over Europe: Impact of Activity Coefficients and Viscosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Sartelet, K.; Couvidat, F.

2014-12-01

Semi-volatile organic species (SVOC) can condense on suspended particulate materials (PM) in the atmosphere. The modeling of condensation/evaporation of SVOC often assumes that gas-phase and particle-phase concentrations are at equilibrium. However, recent studies show that secondary organic aerosols (SOA) may not be accurately represented by an equilibrium approach between the gas and particle phases, because organic aerosols in the particle phase may be very viscous. The condensation in the viscous liquid phase is limited by the diffusion from the surface of PM to its core. Using a surrogate approach to represent SVOC, depending on the user's choice, the secondary organic aerosol processor (SOAP) may assume equilibrium or model dynamically the condensation/evaporation between the gas and particle phases to take into account the viscosity of organic aerosols. The model is implemented in the three-dimensional chemistry-transport model of POLYPHEMUS. In SOAP, activity coefficients for organic mixtures can be computed using UNIFAC for short-range interactions between molecules and AIOMFAC to also take into account the effect of inorganic species on activity coefficients. Simulations over Europe are performed and POLYPHEMUS/SOAP is compared to POLYPHEMUS/H2O, which was previously used to model SOA using the equilibrium approach with activity coefficients from UNIFAC. Impacts of the dynamic approach on modeling SOA over Europe are evaluated. The concentrations of SOA using the dynamic approach are compared with those using the equilibrium approach. The increase of computational cost is also evaluated.

Peer pressure and Generalised Lotka Volterra models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richmond, Peter; Sabatelli, Lorenzo

2004-12-01

We develop a novel approach to peer pressure and Generalised Lotka-Volterra (GLV) models that builds on the development of a simple Langevin equation that characterises stochastic processes. We generalise the approach to stochastic equations that model interacting agents. The agent models recently advocated by Marsilli and Solomon are motivated. Using a simple change of variable, we show that the peer pressure model (similar to the one introduced by Marsilli) and the wealth dynamics model of Solomon may be (almost) mapped one into the other. This may help shed light in the (apparently) different wealth dynamics described by GLV and the Marsili-like peer pressure models.

System Dynamics Approach for Critical Infrastructure and Decision Support. A Model for a Potable Water System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqualini, D.; Witkowski, M.

2005-12-01

The Critical Infrastructure Protection / Decision Support System (CIP/DSS) project, supported by the Science and Technology Office, has been developing a risk-informed Decision Support System that provides insights for making critical infrastructure protection decisions. The system considers seventeen different Department of Homeland Security defined Critical Infrastructures (potable water system, telecommunications, public health, economics, etc.) and their primary interdependencies. These infrastructures have been modeling in one model called CIP/DSS Metropolitan Model. The modeling approach used is a system dynamics modeling approach. System dynamics modeling combines control theory and the nonlinear dynamics theory, which is defined by a set of coupled differential equations, which seeks to explain how the structure of a given system determines its behavior. In this poster we present a system dynamics model for one of the seventeen critical infrastructures, a generic metropolitan potable water system (MPWS). Three are the goals: 1) to gain a better understanding of the MPWS infrastructure; 2) to identify improvements that would help protect MPWS; and 3) to understand the consequences, interdependencies, and impacts, when perturbations occur to the system. The model represents raw water sources, the metropolitan water treatment process, storage of treated water, damage and repair to the MPWS, distribution of water, and end user demand, but does not explicitly represent the detailed network topology of an actual MPWS. The MPWS model is dependent upon inputs from the metropolitan population, energy, telecommunication, public health, and transportation models as well as the national water and transportation models. We present modeling results and sensitivity analysis indicating critical choke points, negative and positive feedback loops in the system. A general scenario is also analyzed where the potable water system responds to a generic disruption.

High frequency, multi-axis dynamic stiffness analysis of a fractionally damped elastomeric isolator using continuous system theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fredette, Luke; Singh, Rajendra

2017-02-01

A spectral element approach is proposed to determine the multi-axis dynamic stiffness terms of elastomeric isolators with fractional damping over a broad range of frequencies. The dynamic properties of a class of cylindrical isolators are modeled by using the continuous system theory in terms of homogeneous rods or Timoshenko beams. The transfer matrix type dynamic stiffness expressions are developed from exact harmonic solutions given translational or rotational displacement excitations. Broadband dynamic stiffness magnitudes (say up to 5 kHz) are computationally verified for axial, torsional, shear, flexural, and coupled stiffness terms using a finite element model. Some discrepancies are found between finite element and spectral element models for the axial and flexural motions, illustrating certain limitations of each method. Experimental validation is provided for an isolator with two cylindrical elements (that work primarily in the shear mode) using dynamic measurements, as reported in the prior literature, up to 600 Hz. Superiority of the fractional damping formulation over structural or viscous damping models is illustrated via experimental validation. Finally, the strengths and limitations of the spectral element approach are briefly discussed.

A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: A first step towards ecological modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

2015-01-01

In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: a first step towards ecological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

2015-06-01

In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

Data Driven Model Development for the SuperSonic SemiSpan Transport (S(sup 4)T)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kukreja, Sunil L.

2011-01-01

In this report, we will investigate two common approaches to model development for robust control synthesis in the aerospace community; namely, reduced order aeroservoelastic modelling based on structural finite-element and computational fluid dynamics based aerodynamic models, and a data-driven system identification procedure. It is shown via analysis of experimental SuperSonic SemiSpan Transport (S4T) wind-tunnel data that by using a system identification approach it is possible to estimate a model at a fixed Mach, which is parsimonious and robust across varying dynamic pressures.

Quantification of live aboveground forest biomass dynamics with Landsat time-series and field inventory data: A comparison of empirical modeling approaches

Treesearch

Scott L. Powell; Warren B. Cohen; Sean P. Healey; Robert E. Kennedy; Gretchen G. Moisen; Kenneth B. Pierce; Janet L. Ohmann

2010-01-01

Spatially and temporally explicit knowledge of biomass dynamics at broad scales is critical to understanding how forest disturbance and regrowth processes influence carbon dynamics. We modeled live, aboveground tree biomass using Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field data and applied the models to 20+ year time-series of Landsat satellite imagery to...

A dynamical systems approach to the tilted Bianchi models of solvable type

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coley, Alan; Hervik, Sigbjørn

2005-02-01

We use a dynamical systems approach to analyse the tilting spatially homogeneous Bianchi models of solvable type (e.g., types VIh and VIIh) with a perfect fluid and a linear barotropic γ-law equation of state. In particular, we study the late-time behaviour of tilted Bianchi models, with an emphasis on the existence of equilibrium points and their stability properties. We briefly discuss the tilting Bianchi type V models and the late-time asymptotic behaviour of irrotational Bianchi type VII0 models. We prove the important result that for non-inflationary Bianchi type VIIh models vacuum plane-wave solutions are the only future attracting equilibrium points in the Bianchi type VIIh invariant set. We then investigate the dynamics close to the plane-wave solutions in more detail, and discover some new features that arise in the dynamical behaviour of Bianchi cosmologies with the inclusion of tilt. We point out that in a tiny open set of parameter space in the type IV model (the loophole) there exist closed curves which act as attracting limit cycles. More interestingly, in the Bianchi type VIIh models there is a bifurcation in which a set of equilibrium points turns into closed orbits. There is a region in which both sets of closed curves coexist, and it appears that for the type VIIh models in this region the solution curves approach a compact surface which is topologically a torus.

Recasting a model atomistic glassformer as a system of icosahedra

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pinney, Rhiannon; Bristol Centre for Complexity Science, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TS; Liverpool, Tanniemola B.

2015-12-28

We consider a binary Lennard-Jones glassformer whose super-Arrhenius dynamics are correlated with the formation of icosahedral structures. Upon cooling, these icosahedra organize into mesoclusters. We recast this glassformer as an effective system of icosahedra which we describe with a population dynamics model. This model we parameterize with data from the temperature regime accessible to molecular dynamics simulations. We then use the model to determine the population of icosahedra in mesoclusters at arbitrary temperature. Using simulation data to incorporate dynamics into the model, we predict relaxation behavior at temperatures inaccessible to conventional approaches. Our model predicts super-Arrhenius dynamics whose relaxation timemore » remains finite for non-zero temperature.« less

Model based control of dynamic atomic force microscope.

PubMed

Lee, Chibum; Salapaka, Srinivasa M

2015-04-01

A model-based robust control approach is proposed that significantly improves imaging bandwidth for the dynamic mode atomic force microscopy. A model for cantilever oscillation amplitude and phase dynamics is derived and used for the control design. In particular, the control design is based on a linearized model and robust H(∞) control theory. This design yields a significant improvement when compared to the conventional proportional-integral designs and verified by experiments.

Simple Kinematic Pathway Approach (KPA) to Catchment-scale Travel Time and Water Age Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soltani, S. S.; Cvetkovic, V.; Destouni, G.

2017-12-01

The distribution of catchment-scale water travel times is strongly influenced by morphological dispersion and is partitioned between hillslope and larger, regional scales. We explore whether hillslope travel times are predictable using a simple semi-analytical "kinematic pathway approach" (KPA) that accounts for dispersion on two levels of morphological and macro-dispersion. The study gives new insights to shallow (hillslope) and deep (regional) groundwater travel times by comparing numerical simulations of travel time distributions, referred to as "dynamic model", with corresponding KPA computations for three different real catchment case studies in Sweden. KPA uses basic structural and hydrological data to compute transient water travel time (forward mode) and age (backward mode) distributions at the catchment outlet. Longitudinal and morphological dispersion components are reflected in KPA computations by assuming an effective Peclet number and topographically driven pathway length distributions, respectively. Numerical simulations of advective travel times are obtained by means of particle tracking using the fully-integrated flow model MIKE SHE. The comparison of computed cumulative distribution functions of travel times shows significant influence of morphological dispersion and groundwater recharge rate on the compatibility of the "kinematic pathway" and "dynamic" models. Zones of high recharge rate in "dynamic" models are associated with topographically driven groundwater flow paths to adjacent discharge zones, e.g. rivers and lakes, through relatively shallow pathway compartments. These zones exhibit more compatible behavior between "dynamic" and "kinematic pathway" models than the zones of low recharge rate. Interestingly, the travel time distributions of hillslope compartments remain almost unchanged with increasing recharge rates in the "dynamic" models. This robust "dynamic" model behavior suggests that flow path lengths and travel times in shallow hillslope compartments are controlled by topography, and therefore application and further development of the simple "kinematic pathway" approach is promising for their modeling.

Observations and Models of Highly Intermittent Phytoplankton Distributions

PubMed Central

Mandal, Sandip; Locke, Christopher; Tanaka, Mamoru; Yamazaki, Hidekatsu

2014-01-01

The measurement of phytoplankton distributions in ocean ecosystems provides the basis for elucidating the influences of physical processes on plankton dynamics. Technological advances allow for measurement of phytoplankton data to greater resolution, displaying high spatial variability. In conventional mathematical models, the mean value of the measured variable is approximated to compare with the model output, which may misinterpret the reality of planktonic ecosystems, especially at the microscale level. To consider intermittency of variables, in this work, a new modelling approach to the planktonic ecosystem is applied, called the closure approach. Using this approach for a simple nutrient-phytoplankton model, we have shown how consideration of the fluctuating parts of model variables can affect system dynamics. Also, we have found a critical value of variance of overall fluctuating terms below which the conventional non-closure model and the mean value from the closure model exhibit the same result. This analysis gives an idea about the importance of the fluctuating parts of model variables and about when to use the closure approach. Comparisons of plot of mean versus standard deviation of phytoplankton at different depths, obtained using this new approach with real observations, give this approach good conformity. PMID:24787740

Model-data integration to improve the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, Matthias; Thonicke, Kirsten; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thurner, Martin; von Bloh, Werner; Dorigo, Wouter; Carvalhais, Nuno

2017-04-01

Dynamic global vegetation models show large uncertainties regarding the development of the land carbon balance under future climate change conditions. This uncertainty is partly caused by differences in how vegetation carbon turnover is represented in global vegetation models. Model-data integration approaches might help to systematically assess and improve model performances and thus to potentially reduce the uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses under future climate change. Here we present several applications of model-data integration with the LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Lands) dynamic global vegetation model to systematically improve the representation of processes or to estimate model parameters. In a first application, we used global satellite-derived datasets of FAPAR (fraction of absorbed photosynthetic activity), albedo and gross primary production to estimate phenology- and productivity-related model parameters using a genetic optimization algorithm. Thereby we identified major limitations of the phenology module and implemented an alternative empirical phenology model. The new phenology module and optimized model parameters resulted in a better performance of LPJmL in representing global spatial patterns of biomass, tree cover, and the temporal dynamic of atmospheric CO2. Therefore, we used in a second application additionally global datasets of biomass and land cover to estimate model parameters that control vegetation establishment and mortality. The results demonstrate the ability to improve simulations of vegetation dynamics but also highlight the need to improve the representation of mortality processes in dynamic global vegetation models. In a third application, we used multiple site-level observations of ecosystem carbon and water exchange, biomass and soil organic carbon to jointly estimate various model parameters that control ecosystem dynamics. This exercise demonstrates the strong role of individual data streams on the simulated ecosystem dynamics which consequently changed the development of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes under future climate and CO2 change. In summary, our results demonstrate challenges and the potential of using model-data integration approaches to improve a dynamic global vegetation model.

SIMULATION OF AEROSOL DYNAMICS: A COMPARATIVE REVIEW OF ALGORITHMS USED IN AIR QUALITY MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

A comparative review of algorithms currently used in air quality models to simulate aerosol dynamics is presented. This review addresses coagulation, condensational growth, nucleation, and gas/particle mass transfer. Two major approaches are used in air quality models to repres...

Two Decades of WRF/CMAQ simulations over the continental United States: New approaches for performing dynamic model evaluation and determining confidence limits for ozone exceedances

EPA Science Inventory

Confidence in the application of models for forecasting and regulatory assessments is furthered by conducting four types of model evaluation: operational, dynamic, diagnostic, and probabilistic. Operational model evaluation alone does not reveal the confidence limits that can be ...

Moving From Static to Dynamic Models of the Onset of Mental Disorder: A Review.

PubMed

Nelson, Barnaby; McGorry, Patrick D; Wichers, Marieke; Wigman, Johanna T W; Hartmann, Jessica A

2017-05-01

In recent years, there has been increased focus on subthreshold stages of mental disorders, with attempts to model and predict which individuals will progress to full-threshold disorder. Given this research attention and the clinical significance of the issue, this article analyzes the assumptions of the theoretical models in the field. Psychiatric research into predicting the onset of mental disorder has shown an overreliance on one-off sampling of cross-sectional data (ie, a snapshot of clinical state and other risk markers) and may benefit from taking dynamic changes into account in predictive modeling. Cross-disciplinary approaches to complex system structures and changes, such as dynamical systems theory, network theory, instability mechanisms, chaos theory, and catastrophe theory, offer potent models that can be applied to the emergence (or decline) of psychopathology, including psychosis prediction, as well as to transdiagnostic emergence of symptoms. Psychiatric research may benefit from approaching psychopathology as a system rather than as a category, identifying dynamics of system change (eg, abrupt vs gradual psychosis onset), and determining the factors to which these systems are most sensitive (eg, interpersonal dynamics and neurochemical change) and the individual variability in system architecture and change. These goals can be advanced by testing hypotheses that emerge from cross-disciplinary models of complex systems. Future studies require repeated longitudinal assessment of relevant variables through either (or a combination of) micro-level (momentary and day-to-day) and macro-level (month and year) assessments. Ecological momentary assessment is a data collection technique appropriate for micro-level assessment. Relevant statistical approaches are joint modeling and time series analysis, including metric-based and model-based methods that draw on the mathematical principles of dynamical systems. This next generation of prediction studies may more accurately model the dynamic nature of psychopathology and system change as well as have treatment implications, such as introducing a means of identifying critical periods of risk for mental state deterioration.

A discrete mechanics framework for real time virtual surgical simulations with application to virtual laparoscopic nephrectomy.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiangmin; Zhang, Nan; Sha, Desong; Shen, Yunhe; Tamma, Kumar K; Sweet, Robert

2009-01-01

The inability to render realistic soft-tissue behavior in real time has remained a barrier to face and content aspects of validity for many virtual reality surgical training systems. Biophysically based models are not only suitable for training purposes but also for patient-specific clinical applications, physiological modeling and surgical planning. When considering the existing approaches for modeling soft tissue for virtual reality surgical simulation, the computer graphics-based approach lacks predictive capability; the mass-spring model (MSM) based approach lacks biophysically realistic soft-tissue dynamic behavior; and the finite element method (FEM) approaches fail to meet the real-time requirement. The present development stems from physics fundamental thermodynamic first law; for a space discrete dynamic system directly formulates the space discrete but time continuous governing equation with embedded material constitutive relation and results in a discrete mechanics framework which possesses a unique balance between the computational efforts and the physically realistic soft-tissue dynamic behavior. We describe the development of the discrete mechanics framework with focused attention towards a virtual laparoscopic nephrectomy application.

Cognitive Network Modeling as a Basis for Characterizing Human Communication Dynamics and Belief Contagion in Technology Adoption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hutto, Clayton; Briscoe, Erica; Trewhitt, Ethan

2012-01-01

Societal level macro models of social behavior do not sufficiently capture nuances needed to adequately represent the dynamics of person-to-person interactions. Likewise, individual agent level micro models have limited scalability - even minute parameter changes can drastically affect a model's response characteristics. This work presents an approach that uses agent-based modeling to represent detailed intra- and inter-personal interactions, as well as a system dynamics model to integrate societal-level influences via reciprocating functions. A Cognitive Network Model (CNM) is proposed as a method of quantitatively characterizing cognitive mechanisms at the intra-individual level. To capture the rich dynamics of interpersonal communication for the propagation of beliefs and attitudes, a Socio-Cognitive Network Model (SCNM) is presented. The SCNM uses socio-cognitive tie strength to regulate how agents influence--and are influenced by--one another's beliefs during social interactions. We then present experimental results which support the use of this network analytical approach, and we discuss its applicability towards characterizing and understanding human information processing.

Reduced Dynamics of the Non-holonomic Whipple Bicycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyer, Frédéric; Porez, Mathieu; Mauny, Johan

2018-06-01

Though the bicycle is a familiar object of everyday life, modeling its full nonlinear three-dimensional dynamics in a closed symbolic form is a difficult issue for classical mechanics. In this article, we address this issue without resorting to the usual simplifications on the bicycle kinematics nor its dynamics. To derive this model, we use a general reduction-based approach in the principal fiber bundle of configurations of the three-dimensional bicycle. This includes a geometrically exact model of the contacts between the wheels and the ground, the explicit calculation of the kernel of constraints, along with the dynamics of the system free of any external forces, and its projection onto the kernel of admissible velocities. The approach takes benefits of the intrinsic formulation of geometric mechanics. Along the path toward the final equations, we show that the exact model of the bicycle dynamics requires to cope with a set of non-symmetric constraints with respect to the structural group of its configuration fiber bundle. The final reduced dynamics are simulated on several examples representative of the bicycle. As expected the constraints imposed by the ground contacts, as well as the energy conservation, are satisfied, while the dynamics can be numerically integrated in real time.

The results of a limited study of approaches to the design, fabrication, and testing of a dynamic model of the NASA IOC space station. Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooks, George W.

1985-01-01

The options for the design, construction, and testing of a dynamic model of the space station were evaluated. Since the definition of the space station structure is still evolving, the Initial Operating Capacity (IOC) reference configuration was used as the general guideline. The results of the studies treat: general considerations of the need for and use of a dynamic model; factors which deal with the model design and construction; and a proposed system for supporting the dynamic model in the planned Large Spacecraft Laboratory.

Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gerard H. E.

2009-04-16

In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gérard H. E.

2009-04-01

In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

Fuzzy model-based servo and model following control for nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Ohtake, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Kazuo; Wang, Hua O

2009-12-01

This correspondence presents servo and nonlinear model following controls for a class of nonlinear systems using the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model-based control approach. First, the construction method of the augmented fuzzy system for continuous-time nonlinear systems is proposed by differentiating the original nonlinear system. Second, the dynamic fuzzy servo controller and the dynamic fuzzy model following controller, which can make outputs of the nonlinear system converge to target points and to outputs of the reference system, respectively, are introduced. Finally, the servo and model following controller design conditions are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities. Design examples illustrate the utility of this approach.

Simulating coupled dynamics of a rigid-flexible multibody system and compressible fluid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Wei; Tian, Qiang; Hu, HaiYan

2018-04-01

As a subsequent work of previous studies of authors, a new parallel computation approach is proposed to simulate the coupled dynamics of a rigid-flexible multibody system and compressible fluid. In this approach, the smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method is used to model the compressible fluid, the natural coordinate formulation (NCF) and absolute nodal coordinate formulation (ANCF) are used to model the rigid and flexible bodies, respectively. In order to model the compressible fluid properly and efficiently via SPH method, three measures are taken as follows. The first is to use the Riemann solver to cope with the fluid compressibility, the second is to define virtual particles of SPH to model the dynamic interaction between the fluid and the multibody system, and the third is to impose the boundary conditions of periodical inflow and outflow to reduce the number of SPH particles involved in the computation process. Afterwards, a parallel computation strategy is proposed based on the graphics processing unit (GPU) to detect the neighboring SPH particles and to solve the dynamic equations of SPH particles in order to improve the computation efficiency. Meanwhile, the generalized-alpha algorithm is used to solve the dynamic equations of the multibody system. Finally, four case studies are given to validate the proposed parallel computation approach.

Application of dynamic traffic assignment to advanced managed lane modeling.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

In this study, a demand estimation framework is developed for assessing the managed lane (ML) : strategies by utilizing dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) modeling, instead of the traditional : approaches that are based on the static traffic assignment...

Nonlinear Pressurization and Modal Analysis Procedure for Dynamic Modeling of Inflatable Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smalley, Kurt B.; Tinker, Michael L.; Saxon, Jeff (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

An introduction and set of guidelines for finite element dynamic modeling of nonrigidized inflatable structures is provided. A two-step approach is presented, involving 1) nonlinear static pressurization of the structure and updating of the stiffness matrix and 2) hear normal modes analysis using the updated stiffness. Advantages of this approach are that it provides physical realism in modeling of pressure stiffening, and it maintains the analytical convenience of a standard bear eigensolution once the stiffness has been modified. Demonstration of the approach is accomplished through the creation and test verification of an inflated cylinder model using a large commercial finite element code. Good frequency and mode shape comparisons are obtained with test data and previous modeling efforts, verifying the accuracy of the technique. Problems encountered in the application of the approach, as well as their solutions, are discussed in detail.

The Contribution of Mathematical Modeling to Understanding Dynamic Aspects of Rumen Metabolism

PubMed Central

Bannink, André; van Lingen, Henk J.; Ellis, Jennifer L.; France, James; Dijkstra, Jan

2016-01-01

All mechanistic rumen models cover the main drivers of variation in rumen function, which are feed intake, the differences between feedstuffs and feeds in their intrinsic rumen degradation characteristics, and fractional outflow rate of fluid and particulate matter. Dynamic modeling approaches are best suited to the prediction of more nuanced responses in rumen metabolism, and represent the dynamics of the interactions between substrates and micro-organisms and inter-microbial interactions. The concepts of dynamics are discussed for the case of rumen starch digestion as influenced by starch intake rate and frequency of feed intake, and for the case of fermentation of fiber in the large intestine. Adding representations of new functional classes of micro-organisms (i.e., with new characteristics from the perspective of whole rumen function) in rumen models only delivers new insights if complemented by the dynamics of their interactions with other functional classes. Rumen fermentation conditions have to be represented due to their profound impact on the dynamics of substrate degradation and microbial metabolism. Although the importance of rumen pH is generally acknowledged, more emphasis is needed on predicting its variation as well as variation in the processes that underlie rumen fluid dynamics. The rumen wall has an important role in adapting to rapid changes in the rumen environment, clearing of volatile fatty acids (VFA), and maintaining rumen pH within limits. Dynamics of rumen wall epithelia and their role in VFA absorption needs to be better represented in models that aim to predict rumen responses across nutritional or physiological states. For a detailed prediction of rumen N balance there is merit in a dynamic modeling approach compared to the static approaches adopted in current protein evaluation systems. Improvement is needed on previous attempts to predict rumen VFA profiles, and this should be pursued by introducing factors that relate more to microbial metabolism. For rumen model construction, data on rumen microbiomes are preferably coupled with knowledge consolidated in rumen models instead of relying on correlations with rather general aspects of treatment or animal. This helps to prevent the disregard of basic principles and underlying mechanisms of whole rumen function. PMID:27933039

Protein displacements under external forces: An atomistic Langevin dynamics approach.

PubMed

Gnandt, David; Utz, Nadine; Blumen, Alexander; Koslowski, Thorsten

2009-02-28

We present a fully atomistic Langevin dynamics approach as a method to simulate biopolymers under external forces. In the harmonic regime, this approach permits the computation of the long-term dynamics using only the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Hessian matrix of second derivatives. We apply this scheme to identify polymorphs of model proteins by their mechanical response fingerprint, and we relate the averaged dynamics of proteins to their biological functionality, with the ion channel gramicidin A, a phosphorylase, and neuropeptide Y as examples. In an environment akin to dilute solutions, even small proteins show relaxation times up to 50 ns. Atomically resolved Langevin dynamics computations have been performed for the stretched gramicidin A ion channel.

Integrating host, natural enemy, and other processes in population models of the pine sawfly

Treesearch

A. A. Sharov

1991-01-01

Explanation of population dynamics is one of the main problems in population ecology. There are two main approaches to the explanation: the factor approach and the dynamic approach. According to the first, an explanation is obtained when the effect of various environmental factors on population density is revealed. Such analysis is performed using well developed...

Modelling the control of interceptive actions.

PubMed Central

Beek, P J; Dessing, J C; Peper, C E; Bullock, D

2003-01-01

In recent years, several phenomenological dynamical models have been formulated that describe how perceptual variables are incorporated in the control of motor variables. We call these short-route models as they do not address how perception-action patterns might be constrained by the dynamical properties of the sensory, neural and musculoskeletal subsystems of the human action system. As an alternative, we advocate a long-route modelling approach in which the dynamics of these subsystems are explicitly addressed and integrated to reproduce interceptive actions. The approach is exemplified through a discussion of a recently developed model for interceptive actions consisting of a neural network architecture for the online generation of motor outflow commands, based on time-to-contact information and information about the relative positions and velocities of hand and ball. This network is shown to be consistent with both behavioural and neurophysiological data. Finally, some problems are discussed with regard to the question of how the motor outflow commands (i.e. the intended movement) might be modulated in view of the musculoskeletal dynamics. PMID:14561342

Benchmarking of dynamic simulation predictions in two software platforms using an upper limb musculoskeletal model

PubMed Central

Saul, Katherine R.; Hu, Xiao; Goehler, Craig M.; Vidt, Meghan E.; Daly, Melissa; Velisar, Anca; Murray, Wendy M.

2014-01-01

Several opensource or commercially available software platforms are widely used to develop dynamic simulations of movement. While computational approaches are conceptually similar across platforms, technical differences in implementation may influence output. We present a new upper limb dynamic model as a tool to evaluate potential differences in predictive behavior between platforms. We evaluated to what extent differences in technical implementations in popular simulation software environments result in differences in kinematic predictions for single and multijoint movements using EMG- and optimization-based approaches for deriving control signals. We illustrate the benchmarking comparison using SIMM-Dynamics Pipeline-SD/Fast and OpenSim platforms. The most substantial divergence results from differences in muscle model and actuator paths. This model is a valuable resource and is available for download by other researchers. The model, data, and simulation results presented here can be used by future researchers to benchmark other software platforms and software upgrades for these two platforms. PMID:24995410

Benchmarking of dynamic simulation predictions in two software platforms using an upper limb musculoskeletal model.

PubMed

Saul, Katherine R; Hu, Xiao; Goehler, Craig M; Vidt, Meghan E; Daly, Melissa; Velisar, Anca; Murray, Wendy M

2015-01-01

Several opensource or commercially available software platforms are widely used to develop dynamic simulations of movement. While computational approaches are conceptually similar across platforms, technical differences in implementation may influence output. We present a new upper limb dynamic model as a tool to evaluate potential differences in predictive behavior between platforms. We evaluated to what extent differences in technical implementations in popular simulation software environments result in differences in kinematic predictions for single and multijoint movements using EMG- and optimization-based approaches for deriving control signals. We illustrate the benchmarking comparison using SIMM-Dynamics Pipeline-SD/Fast and OpenSim platforms. The most substantial divergence results from differences in muscle model and actuator paths. This model is a valuable resource and is available for download by other researchers. The model, data, and simulation results presented here can be used by future researchers to benchmark other software platforms and software upgrades for these two platforms.

Building a kinetic Monte Carlo model with a chosen accuracy.

PubMed

Bhute, Vijesh J; Chatterjee, Abhijit

2013-06-28

The kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) method is a popular modeling approach for reaching large materials length and time scales. The KMC dynamics is erroneous when atomic processes that are relevant to the dynamics are missing from the KMC model. Recently, we had developed for the first time an error measure for KMC in Bhute and Chatterjee [J. Chem. Phys. 138, 084103 (2013)]. The error measure, which is given in terms of the probability that a missing process will be selected in the correct dynamics, requires estimation of the missing rate. In this work, we present an improved procedure for estimating the missing rate. The estimate found using the new procedure is within an order of magnitude of the correct missing rate, unlike our previous approach where the estimate was larger by orders of magnitude. This enables one to find the error in the KMC model more accurately. In addition, we find the time for which the KMC model can be used before a maximum error in the dynamics has been reached.

Dynamical and Mechanistic Reconstructive Approaches of T Lymphocyte Dynamics: Using Visual Modeling Languages to Bridge the Gap between Immunologists, Theoreticians, and Programmers

PubMed Central

Thomas-Vaslin, Véronique; Six, Adrien; Ganascia, Jean-Gabriel; Bersini, Hugues

2013-01-01

Dynamic modeling of lymphocyte behavior has primarily been based on populations based differential equations or on cellular agents moving in space and interacting each other. The final steps of this modeling effort are expressed in a code written in a programing language. On account of the complete lack of standardization of the different steps to proceed, we have to deplore poor communication and sharing between experimentalists, theoreticians and programmers. The adoption of diagrammatic visual computer language should however greatly help the immunologists to better communicate, to more easily identify the models similarities and facilitate the reuse and extension of existing software models. Since immunologists often conceptualize the dynamical evolution of immune systems in terms of “state-transitions” of biological objects, we promote the use of unified modeling language (UML) state-transition diagram. To demonstrate the feasibility of this approach, we present a UML refactoring of two published models on thymocyte differentiation. Originally built with different modeling strategies, a mathematical ordinary differential equation-based model and a cellular automata model, the two models are now in the same visual formalism and can be compared. PMID:24101919

The theory of reasoned action as parallel constraint satisfaction: towards a dynamic computational model of health behavior.

PubMed

Orr, Mark G; Thrush, Roxanne; Plaut, David C

2013-01-01

The reasoned action approach, although ubiquitous in health behavior theory (e.g., Theory of Reasoned Action/Planned Behavior), does not adequately address two key dynamical aspects of health behavior: learning and the effect of immediate social context (i.e., social influence). To remedy this, we put forth a computational implementation of the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) using artificial-neural networks. Our model re-conceptualized behavioral intention as arising from a dynamic constraint satisfaction mechanism among a set of beliefs. In two simulations, we show that constraint satisfaction can simultaneously incorporate the effects of past experience (via learning) with the effects of immediate social context to yield behavioral intention, i.e., intention is dynamically constructed from both an individual's pre-existing belief structure and the beliefs of others in the individual's social context. In a third simulation, we illustrate the predictive ability of the model with respect to empirically derived behavioral intention. As the first known computational model of health behavior, it represents a significant advance in theory towards understanding the dynamics of health behavior. Furthermore, our approach may inform the development of population-level agent-based models of health behavior that aim to incorporate psychological theory into models of population dynamics.

The Theory of Reasoned Action as Parallel Constraint Satisfaction: Towards a Dynamic Computational Model of Health Behavior

PubMed Central

Orr, Mark G.; Thrush, Roxanne; Plaut, David C.

2013-01-01

The reasoned action approach, although ubiquitous in health behavior theory (e.g., Theory of Reasoned Action/Planned Behavior), does not adequately address two key dynamical aspects of health behavior: learning and the effect of immediate social context (i.e., social influence). To remedy this, we put forth a computational implementation of the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) using artificial-neural networks. Our model re-conceptualized behavioral intention as arising from a dynamic constraint satisfaction mechanism among a set of beliefs. In two simulations, we show that constraint satisfaction can simultaneously incorporate the effects of past experience (via learning) with the effects of immediate social context to yield behavioral intention, i.e., intention is dynamically constructed from both an individual’s pre-existing belief structure and the beliefs of others in the individual’s social context. In a third simulation, we illustrate the predictive ability of the model with respect to empirically derived behavioral intention. As the first known computational model of health behavior, it represents a significant advance in theory towards understanding the dynamics of health behavior. Furthermore, our approach may inform the development of population-level agent-based models of health behavior that aim to incorporate psychological theory into models of population dynamics. PMID:23671603

Modelling and enhanced molecular dynamics to steer structure-based drug discovery.

PubMed

Kalyaanamoorthy, Subha; Chen, Yi-Ping Phoebe

2014-05-01

The ever-increasing gap between the availabilities of the genome sequences and the crystal structures of proteins remains one of the significant challenges to the modern drug discovery efforts. The knowledge of structure-dynamics-functionalities of proteins is important in order to understand several key aspects of structure-based drug discovery, such as drug-protein interactions, drug binding and unbinding mechanisms and protein-protein interactions. This review presents a brief overview on the different state of the art computational approaches that are applied for protein structure modelling and molecular dynamics simulations of biological systems. We give an essence of how different enhanced sampling molecular dynamics approaches, together with regular molecular dynamics methods, assist in steering the structure based drug discovery processes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling and analysis of tritium dynamics in a DT fusion fuel cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuan, William

1998-11-01

A number of crucial design issues have a profound effect on the dynamics of the tritium fuel cycle in a DT fusion reactor, where the development of appropriate solutions to these issues is of particular importance to the introduction of fusion as a commercial system. Such tritium-related issues can be classified according to their operational, safety, and economic impact to the operation of the reactor during its lifetime. Given such key design issues inherent in next generation fusion devices using the DT fuel cycle development of appropriate models can then lead to optimized designs of the fusion fuel cycle for different types of DT fusion reactors. In this work, two different types of modeling approaches are developed and their application to solving key tritium issues presented. For the first approach, time-dependent inventories, concentrations, and flow rates characterizing the main subsystems of the fuel cycle are simulated with a new dynamic modular model of a fusion reactor's fuel cycle, named X-TRUFFLES (X-Windows TRitiUm Fusion Fuel cycLE dynamic Simulation). The complex dynamic behavior of the recycled fuel within each of the modeled subsystems is investigated using this new integrated model for different reactor scenarios and design approaches. Results for a proposed fuel cycle design taking into account current technologies are presented, including sensitivity studies. Ways to minimize the tritium inventory are also assessed by examining various design options that could be used to minimize local and global tritium inventories. The second modeling approach involves an analytical model to be used for the calculation of the required tritium breeding ratio, i.e., a primary design issue which relates directly to the feasibility and economics of DT fusion systems. A time-integrated global tritium balance scheme is developed and appropriate analytical expressions are derived for tritium self-sufficiency relevant parameters. The easy exploration of the large parameter space of the fusion fuel cycle can thus be conducted as opposed to previous modeling approaches. Future guidance for R&D (research and development) in fusion nuclear technology is discussed in view of possible routes to take in reducing the tritium breeding requirements of DT fusion reactors.

A First Approach to Filament Dynamics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Silva, P. E. S.; de Abreu, F. Vistulo; Simoes, R.; Dias, R. G.

2010-01-01

Modelling elastic filament dynamics is a topic of high interest due to the wide range of applications. However, it has reached a high level of complexity in the literature, making it unaccessible to a beginner. In this paper we explain the main steps involved in the computational modelling of the dynamics of an elastic filament. We first derive…

Using Innovative Outliers to Detect Discrete Shifts in Dynamics in Group-Based State-Space Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chow, Sy-Miin; Hamaker, Ellen L.; Allaire, Jason C.

2009-01-01

Outliers are typically regarded as data anomalies that should be discarded. However, dynamic or "innovative" outliers can be appropriately utilized to capture unusual but substantively meaningful shifts in a system's dynamics. We extend De Jong and Penzer's 1998 approach for representing outliers in single-subject state-space models to a…

A graphical vector autoregressive modelling approach to the analysis of electronic diary data

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background In recent years, electronic diaries are increasingly used in medical research and practice to investigate patients' processes and fluctuations in symptoms over time. To model dynamic dependence structures and feedback mechanisms between symptom-relevant variables, a multivariate time series method has to be applied. Methods We propose to analyse the temporal interrelationships among the variables by a structural modelling approach based on graphical vector autoregressive (VAR) models. We give a comprehensive description of the underlying concepts and explain how the dependence structure can be recovered from electronic diary data by a search over suitable constrained (graphical) VAR models. Results The graphical VAR approach is applied to the electronic diary data of 35 obese patients with and without binge eating disorder (BED). The dynamic relationships for the two subgroups between eating behaviour, depression, anxiety and eating control are visualized in two path diagrams. Results show that the two subgroups of obese patients with and without BED are distinguishable by the temporal patterns which influence their respective eating behaviours. Conclusion The use of the graphical VAR approach for the analysis of electronic diary data leads to a deeper insight into patient's dynamics and dependence structures. An increasing use of this modelling approach could lead to a better understanding of complex psychological and physiological mechanisms in different areas of medical care and research. PMID:20359333

Legacy nutrient dynamics and patterns of catchment response under changing land use and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attinger, S.; Van, M. K.; Basu, N. B.

2017-12-01

Watersheds are complex heterogeneous systems that store, transform, and release water and nutrients under a broad distribution of both natural and anthropogenic controls. Many current watershed models, from complex numerical models to simpler reservoir-type models, are considered to be well-developed in their ability to predict fluxes of water and nutrients to streams and groundwater. They are generally less adept, however, at capturing watershed storage dynamics. In other words, many current models are run with an assumption of steady-state dynamics, and focus on nutrient flows rather than changes in nutrient stocks within watersheds. Although these commonly used modeling approaches may be able to adequately capture short-term watershed dynamics, they are unable to represent the clear nonlinearities or hysteresis responses observed in watersheds experiencing significant changes in nutrient inputs. To address such a lack, we have, in the present work, developed a parsimonious modeling approach designed to capture long-term catchment responses to spatial and temporal changes in nutrient inputs. In this approach, we conceptualize the catchment as a biogeochemical reactor that is driven by nutrient inputs, characterized internally by both biogeochemical degradation and residence or travel time distributions, resulting in a specific nutrient output. For the model simulations, we define a range of different scenarios to represent real-world changes in land use and management implemented to improve water quality. We then introduce the concept of state-space trajectories to describe system responses to these potential changes in anthropogenic forcings. We also increase model complexity, in a stepwise fashion, by dividing the catchment into multiple biogeochemical reactors, coupled in series or in parallel. Using this approach, we attempt to answer the following questions: (1) What level of model complexity is needed to capture observed system responses? (2) How can we explain different patterns of nonlinearity in watershed nutrient dynamics? And finally, how does the accumulation of nutrient legacies within watersheds impact current and future water quality?

Closed-form dynamics of a hexarot parallel manipulator by means of the principle of virtual work

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedrammehr, Siamak; Nahavandi, Saeid; Abdi, Hamid

2018-04-01

In this research, a systematic approach to solving the inverse dynamics of hexarot manipulators is addressed using the methodology of virtual work. For the first time, a closed form of the mathematical formulation of the standard dynamic model is presented for this class of mechanisms. An efficient algorithm for solving this closed-form dynamic model of the mechanism is developed and it is used to simulate the dynamics of the system for different trajectories. Validation of the proposed model is performed using SimMechanics and it is shown that the results of the proposed mathematical model match with the results obtained by the SimMechanics model.

Dynamic simulation of storm-driven barrier island morphology under future sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passeri, D. L.; Long, J.; Plant, N. G.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.

2016-12-01

The impacts of short-term processes such as tropical and extratropical storms have the potential to alter barrier island morphology. On the event scale, the effects of storm-driven morphology may result in damage or loss of property, infrastructure and habitat. On the decadal scale, the combination of storms and sea level rise (SLR) will evolve barrier islands. The effects of SLR on hydrodynamics and coastal morphology are dynamic and inter-related; nonlinearities in SLR can cause larger peak surges, lengthier inundation times and additional inundated land, which may result in increased erosion, overwash or breaching along barrier islands. This study uses a two-dimensional morphodynamic model (XBeach) to examine the response of Dauphin Island, AL to storm surge under future SLR. The model is forced with water levels and waves provided by a large-domain hydrodynamic model. A historic validation of hurricanes Ivan and Katrina indicates the model is capable of predicting morphologic response with high skill (0.5). The validated model is used to simulate storm surge driven by Ivan and Katrina under four future SLR scenarios, ranging from 20 cm to 2 m. Each SLR scenario is implemented using a static or "bathtub" approach (in which water levels are increased linearly by the amount of SLR) versus a dynamic approach (in which SLR is applied at the open ocean boundary of the hydrodynamic model and allowed to propagate through the domain as guided by the governing equations). Results illustrate that higher amounts of SLR result in additional shoreline change, dune erosion, overwash and breaching. Compared to the dynamic approach, the static approach over-predicts inundation, dune erosion, overwash and breaching of the island. Overall, results provide a better understanding of the effects of SLR on storm-driven barrier island morphology and support a paradigm shift away from the "bathtub" approach, towards considering the integrated, dynamic effects of SLR.

A water balance model to estimate flow through the Old and Middle River corridor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, Stephen W.; Gross, Edward S.; Hutton, Paul H.

2016-01-01

We applied a water balance model to predict tidally averaged (subtidal) flows through the Old River and Middle River corridor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. We reviewed the dynamics that govern subtidal flows and water levels and adopted a simplified representation. In this water balance approach, we estimated ungaged flows as linear functions of known (or specified) flows. We assumed that subtidal storage within the control volume varies because of fortnightly variation in subtidal water level, Delta inflow, and barometric pressure. The water balance model effectively predicts subtidal flows and approaches the accuracy of a 1–D Delta hydrodynamic model. We explore the potential to improve the approach by representing more complex dynamics and identify possible future improvements.

A multifactor approach to forecasting Romanian gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run.

PubMed

Armeanu, Daniel; Andrei, Jean Vasile; Lache, Leonard; Panait, Mirela

2017-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the application of a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) based on dynamic principal components analysis to forecasting short-term economic growth in Romania. We have used a generalized principal components approach to estimate a dynamic model based on a dataset comprising 86 economic and non-economic variables that are linked to economic output. The model exploits the dynamic correlations between these variables and uses three common components that account for roughly 72% of the information contained in the original space. We show that it is possible to generate reliable forecasts of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) using just the common components while also assessing the contribution of the individual variables to the dynamics of real GDP. In order to assess the relative performance of the GDFM to standard models based on principal components analysis, we have also estimated two Stock-Watson (SW) models that were used to perform the same out-of-sample forecasts as the GDFM. The results indicate significantly better performance of the GDFM compared with the competing SW models, which empirically confirms our expectations that the GDFM produces more accurate forecasts when dealing with large datasets.

A multifactor approach to forecasting Romanian gross domestic product (GDP) in the short run

PubMed Central

Armeanu, Daniel; Lache, Leonard; Panait, Mirela

2017-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the application of a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) based on dynamic principal components analysis to forecasting short-term economic growth in Romania. We have used a generalized principal components approach to estimate a dynamic model based on a dataset comprising 86 economic and non-economic variables that are linked to economic output. The model exploits the dynamic correlations between these variables and uses three common components that account for roughly 72% of the information contained in the original space. We show that it is possible to generate reliable forecasts of quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) using just the common components while also assessing the contribution of the individual variables to the dynamics of real GDP. In order to assess the relative performance of the GDFM to standard models based on principal components analysis, we have also estimated two Stock-Watson (SW) models that were used to perform the same out-of-sample forecasts as the GDFM. The results indicate significantly better performance of the GDFM compared with the competing SW models, which empirically confirms our expectations that the GDFM produces more accurate forecasts when dealing with large datasets. PMID:28742100

Modeling the internal dynamics of energy and mass transfer in an imperfectly mixed ventilated airspace.

PubMed

Janssens, K; Van Brecht, A; Zerihun Desta, T; Boonen, C; Berckmans, D

2004-06-01

The present paper outlines a modeling approach, which has been developed to model the internal dynamics of heat and moisture transfer in an imperfectly mixed ventilated airspace. The modeling approach, which combines the classical heat and moisture balance differential equations with the use of experimental time-series data, provides a physically meaningful description of the process and is very useful for model-based control purposes. The paper illustrates how the modeling approach has been applied to a ventilated laboratory test room with internal heat and moisture production. The results are evaluated and some valuable suggestions for future research are forwarded. The modeling approach outlined in this study provides an ideal form for advanced model-based control system design. The relatively low number of parameters makes it well suited for model-based control purposes, as a limited number of identification experiments is sufficient to determine these parameters. The model concept provides information about the air quality and airflow pattern in an arbitrary building. By using this model as a simulation tool, the indoor air quality and airflow pattern can be optimized.

Continuum modeling of cooperative traffic flow dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngoduy, D.; Hoogendoorn, S. P.; Liu, R.

2009-07-01

This paper presents a continuum approach to model the dynamics of cooperative traffic flow. The cooperation is defined in our model in a way that the equipped vehicle can issue and receive a warning massage when there is downstream congestion. Upon receiving the warning massage, the (up-stream) equipped vehicle will adapt the current desired speed to the speed at the congested area in order to avoid sharp deceleration when approaching the congestion. To model the dynamics of such cooperative systems, a multi-class gas-kinetic theory is extended to capture the adaptation of the desired speed of the equipped vehicle to the speed at the downstream congested traffic. Numerical simulations are carried out to show the influence of the penetration rate of the equipped vehicles on traffic flow stability and capacity in a freeway.

Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation demand model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-04-01

Little attention has been given to estimating dynamic travel demand in transportation planning in the past. However, when factors influencing travel are changing significantly over time such as with an approaching hurricane - dynamic demand and t...

Mathematical Modeling of Microbial Community Dynamics: A Methodological Review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Song, Hyun-Seob; Cannon, William R.; Beliaev, Alex S.

Microorganisms in nature form diverse communities that dynamically change in structure and function in response to environmental variations. As a complex adaptive system, microbial communities show higher-order properties that are not present in individual microbes, but arise from their interactions. Predictive mathematical models not only help to understand the underlying principles of the dynamics and emergent properties of natural and synthetic microbial communities, but also provide key knowledge required for engineering them. In this article, we provide an overview of mathematical tools that include not only current mainstream approaches, but also less traditional approaches that, in our opinion, can bemore » potentially useful. We discuss a broad range of methods ranging from low-resolution supra-organismal to high-resolution individual-based modeling. Particularly, we highlight the integrative approaches that synergistically combine disparate methods. In conclusion, we provide our outlook for the key aspects that should be further developed to move microbial community modeling towards greater predictive power.« less

A logic-based dynamic modeling approach to explicate the evolution of the central dogma of molecular biology.

PubMed

Jafari, Mohieddin; Ansari-Pour, Naser; Azimzadeh, Sadegh; Mirzaie, Mehdi

It is nearly half a century past the age of the introduction of the Central Dogma (CD) of molecular biology. This biological axiom has been developed and currently appears to be all the more complex. In this study, we modified CD by adding further species to the CD information flow and mathematically expressed CD within a dynamic framework by using Boolean network based on its present-day and 1965 editions. We show that the enhancement of the Dogma not only now entails a higher level of complexity, but it also shows a higher level of robustness, thus far more consistent with the nature of biological systems. Using this mathematical modeling approach, we put forward a logic-based expression of our conceptual view of molecular biology. Finally, we show that such biological concepts can be converted into dynamic mathematical models using a logic-based approach and thus may be useful as a framework for improving static conceptual models in biology.

A logic-based dynamic modeling approach to explicate the evolution of the central dogma of molecular biology

PubMed Central

Jafari, Mohieddin; Ansari-Pour, Naser; Azimzadeh, Sadegh; Mirzaie, Mehdi

2017-01-01

It is nearly half a century past the age of the introduction of the Central Dogma (CD) of molecular biology. This biological axiom has been developed and currently appears to be all the more complex. In this study, we modified CD by adding further species to the CD information flow and mathematically expressed CD within a dynamic framework by using Boolean network based on its present-day and 1965 editions. We show that the enhancement of the Dogma not only now entails a higher level of complexity, but it also shows a higher level of robustness, thus far more consistent with the nature of biological systems. Using this mathematical modeling approach, we put forward a logic-based expression of our conceptual view of molecular biology. Finally, we show that such biological concepts can be converted into dynamic mathematical models using a logic-based approach and thus may be useful as a framework for improving static conceptual models in biology. PMID:29267315

Calcium dynamics and signaling in vascular regulation: computational models

PubMed Central

Tsoukias, Nikolaos Michael

2013-01-01

Calcium is a universal signaling molecule with a central role in a number of vascular functions including in the regulation of tone and blood flow. Experimentation has provided insights into signaling pathways that lead to or affected by Ca2+ mobilization in the vasculature. Mathematical modeling offers a systematic approach to the analysis of these mechanisms and can serve as a tool for data interpretation and for guiding new experimental studies. Comprehensive models of calcium dynamics are well advanced for some systems such as the heart. This review summarizes the progress that has been made in modeling Ca2+ dynamics and signaling in vascular cells. Model simulations show how Ca2+ signaling emerges as a result of complex, nonlinear interactions that cannot be properly analyzed using only a reductionist's approach. A strategy of integrative modeling in the vasculature is outlined that will allow linking macroscale pathophysiological responses to the underlying cellular mechanisms. PMID:21061306

Social determinants of health inequalities: towards a theoretical perspective using systems science.

PubMed

Jayasinghe, Saroj

2015-08-25

A systems approach offers a novel conceptualization to natural and social systems. In recent years, this has led to perceiving population health outcomes as an emergent property of a dynamic and open, complex adaptive system. The current paper explores these themes further and applies the principles of systems approach and complexity science (i.e. systems science) to conceptualize social determinants of health inequalities. The conceptualization can be done in two steps: viewing health inequalities from a systems approach and extending it to include complexity science. Systems approach views health inequalities as patterns within the larger rubric of other facets of the human condition, such as educational outcomes and economic development. This anlysis requires more sophisticated models such as systems dynamic models. An extension of the approach is to view systems as complex adaptive systems, i.e. systems that are 'open' and adapt to the environment. They consist of dynamic adapting subsystems that exhibit non-linear interactions, while being 'open' to a similarly dynamic environment of interconnected systems. They exhibit emergent properties that cannot be estimated with precision by using the known interactions among its components (such as economic development, political freedom, health system, culture etc.). Different combinations of the same bundle of factors or determinants give rise to similar patterns or outcomes (i.e. property of convergence), and minor variations in the initial condition could give rise to widely divergent outcomes. Novel approaches using computer simulation models (e.g. agent-based models) would shed light on possible mechanisms as to how factors or determinants interact and lead to emergent patterns of health inequalities of populations.

Variational Bayesian identification and prediction of stochastic nonlinear dynamic causal models.

PubMed

Daunizeau, J; Friston, K J; Kiebel, S J

2009-11-01

In this paper, we describe a general variational Bayesian approach for approximate inference on nonlinear stochastic dynamic models. This scheme extends established approximate inference on hidden-states to cover: (i) nonlinear evolution and observation functions, (ii) unknown parameters and (precision) hyperparameters and (iii) model comparison and prediction under uncertainty. Model identification or inversion entails the estimation of the marginal likelihood or evidence of a model. This difficult integration problem can be finessed by optimising a free-energy bound on the evidence using results from variational calculus. This yields a deterministic update scheme that optimises an approximation to the posterior density on the unknown model variables. We derive such a variational Bayesian scheme in the context of nonlinear stochastic dynamic hierarchical models, for both model identification and time-series prediction. The computational complexity of the scheme is comparable to that of an extended Kalman filter, which is critical when inverting high dimensional models or long time-series. Using Monte-Carlo simulations, we assess the estimation efficiency of this variational Bayesian approach using three stochastic variants of chaotic dynamic systems. We also demonstrate the model comparison capabilities of the method, its self-consistency and its predictive power.

Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics; Interim Results and Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hyde, David C.; Shweyk, Kamal M.; Brown, Frank; Shah, Gautam

2014-01-01

As part of the NASA Vehicle Systems Safety Technologies (VSST), Assuring Safe and Effective Aircraft Control Under Hazardous Conditions (Technical Challenge #3), an effort is underway within Boeing Research and Technology (BR&T) to address Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics (VSST1-7). The scope of the effort is to develop and evaluate advanced multidisciplinary flight dynamics modeling techniques, including integrated uncertainties, to facilitate higher fidelity response characterization of current and future aircraft configurations approaching and during loss-of-control conditions. This approach is to incorporate multiple flight dynamics modeling methods for aerodynamics, structures, and propulsion, including experimental, computational, and analytical. Also to be included are techniques for data integration and uncertainty characterization and quantification. This research shall introduce new and updated multidisciplinary modeling and simulation technologies designed to improve the ability to characterize airplane response in off-nominal flight conditions. The research shall also introduce new techniques for uncertainty modeling that will provide a unified database model comprised of multiple sources, as well as an uncertainty bounds database for each data source such that a full vehicle uncertainty analysis is possible even when approaching or beyond Loss of Control boundaries. Methodologies developed as part of this research shall be instrumental in predicting and mitigating loss of control precursors and events directly linked to causal and contributing factors, such as stall, failures, damage, or icing. The tasks will include utilizing the BR&T Water Tunnel to collect static and dynamic data to be compared to the GTM extended WT database, characterizing flight dynamics in off-nominal conditions, developing tools for structural load estimation under dynamic conditions, devising methods for integrating various modeling elements into a real-time simulation capability, generating techniques for uncertainty modeling that draw data from multiple modeling sources, and providing a unified database model that includes nominal plus increments for each flight condition. This paper presents status of testing in the BR&T water tunnel and analysis of the resulting data and efforts to characterize these data using alternative modeling methods. Program challenges and issues are also presented.

A Neural Network Model of the Structure and Dynamics of Human Personality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Read, Stephen J.; Monroe, Brian M.; Brownstein, Aaron L.; Yang, Yu; Chopra, Gurveen; Miller, Lynn C.

2010-01-01

We present a neural network model that aims to bridge the historical gap between dynamic and structural approaches to personality. The model integrates work on the structure of the trait lexicon, the neurobiology of personality, temperament, goal-based models of personality, and an evolutionary analysis of motives. It is organized in terms of two…

Maximum Likelihood Dynamic Factor Modeling for Arbitrary "N" and "T" Using SEM

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Voelkle, Manuel C.; Oud, Johan H. L.; von Oertzen, Timo; Lindenberger, Ulman

2012-01-01

This article has 3 objectives that build on each other. First, we demonstrate how to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for dynamic factor models (the direct autoregressive factor score model) with arbitrary "T" and "N" by means of structural equation modeling (SEM) and compare the approach to existing methods. Second, we go beyond standard time…

Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Mattenberger, Christopher J.; Go, Susie

2014-01-01

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

Improving Quality in Education: Dynamic Approaches to School Improvement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Creemers, Bert P. M.; Kyriakides, Leonidas

2011-01-01

This book explores an approach to school improvement that merges the traditions of educational effectiveness research and school improvement efforts. It displays how the dynamic model, which is theoretical and empirically validated, can be used in both traditions. Each chapter integrates evidence from international and national studies, showing…

Hybrid forecasting of chaotic processes: Using machine learning in conjunction with a knowledge-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathak, Jaideep; Wikner, Alexander; Fussell, Rebeckah; Chandra, Sarthak; Hunt, Brian R.; Girvan, Michelle; Ott, Edward

2018-04-01

A model-based approach to forecasting chaotic dynamical systems utilizes knowledge of the mechanistic processes governing the dynamics to build an approximate mathematical model of the system. In contrast, machine learning techniques have demonstrated promising results for forecasting chaotic systems purely from past time series measurements of system state variables (training data), without prior knowledge of the system dynamics. The motivation for this paper is the potential of machine learning for filling in the gaps in our underlying mechanistic knowledge that cause widely-used knowledge-based models to be inaccurate. Thus, we here propose a general method that leverages the advantages of these two approaches by combining a knowledge-based model and a machine learning technique to build a hybrid forecasting scheme. Potential applications for such an approach are numerous (e.g., improving weather forecasting). We demonstrate and test the utility of this approach using a particular illustrative version of a machine learning known as reservoir computing, and we apply the resulting hybrid forecaster to a low-dimensional chaotic system, as well as to a high-dimensional spatiotemporal chaotic system. These tests yield extremely promising results in that our hybrid technique is able to accurately predict for a much longer period of time than either its machine-learning component or its model-based component alone.

A hybrid regional approach to model discharge at multiple sub-basins within the Calapooia Watershed, Oregon, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Modeling is a useful tool for quantifying ecosystem services and understanding their temporal dynamics. Here we describe a hybrid regional modeling approach for sub-basins of the Calapooia watershed that incorporates both a precipitation-runoff model and an indexed regression mo...

An Artificial Intelligence Approach for Modeling and Prediction of Water Diffusion Inside a Carbon Nanotube

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Modeling of water flow in carbon nanotubes is still a challenge for the classic models of fluid dynamics. In this investigation, an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is presented to solve this problem. The proposed ANFIS approach can construct an input–output mapping based on both human knowledge in the form of fuzzy if-then rules and stipulated input–output data pairs. Good performance of the designed ANFIS ensures its capability as a promising tool for modeling and prediction of fluid flow at nanoscale where the continuum models of fluid dynamics tend to break down. PMID:20596382

An Artificial Intelligence Approach for Modeling and Prediction of Water Diffusion Inside a Carbon Nanotube.

PubMed

Ahadian, Samad; Kawazoe, Yoshiyuki

2009-06-04

Modeling of water flow in carbon nanotubes is still a challenge for the classic models of fluid dynamics. In this investigation, an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is presented to solve this problem. The proposed ANFIS approach can construct an input-output mapping based on both human knowledge in the form of fuzzy if-then rules and stipulated input-output data pairs. Good performance of the designed ANFIS ensures its capability as a promising tool for modeling and prediction of fluid flow at nanoscale where the continuum models of fluid dynamics tend to break down.

Computer Simulation of the Forces Acting on the Polystyrene Probe Submerged into the Succinonitrile Near Phase Transition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bune, Andris V.; Kaukler, William F.; Whitaker, Ann F. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Modeling approach to simulate both mesoscale and microscopic forces acting in a typical AFM experiment is presented. At mesoscale level interaction between the cantilever tip and the sample surface is primarily described by the balance of attractive Van der Waals and repulsive forces. The model of cantilever oscillations is applicable to both non-contact and "tapping" AFM. This model can be farther enhanced to describe nanoparticle manipulation by cantilever. At microscopic level tip contamination and details of tip-surface interaction can be simulated using molecular dynamics approach. Integration of mesoscale model with molecular dynamic model is discussed.

Experimental design for dynamics identification of cellular processes.

PubMed

Dinh, Vu; Rundell, Ann E; Buzzard, Gregery T

2014-03-01

We address the problem of using nonlinear models to design experiments to characterize the dynamics of cellular processes by using the approach of the Maximally Informative Next Experiment (MINE), which was introduced in W. Dong et al. (PLoS ONE 3(8):e3105, 2008) and independently in M.M. Donahue et al. (IET Syst. Biol. 4:249-262, 2010). In this approach, existing data is used to define a probability distribution on the parameters; the next measurement point is the one that yields the largest model output variance with this distribution. Building upon this approach, we introduce the Expected Dynamics Estimator (EDE), which is the expected value using this distribution of the output as a function of time. We prove the consistency of this estimator (uniform convergence to true dynamics) even when the chosen experiments cluster in a finite set of points. We extend this proof of consistency to various practical assumptions on noisy data and moderate levels of model mismatch. Through the derivation and proof, we develop a relaxed version of MINE that is more computationally tractable and robust than the original formulation. The results are illustrated with numerical examples on two nonlinear ordinary differential equation models of biomolecular and cellular processes.

On dynamical systems approaches and methods in f ( R ) cosmology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alho, Artur; Carloni, Sante; Uggla, Claes, E-mail: aalho@math.ist.utl.pt, E-mail: sante.carloni@tecnico.ulisboa.pt, E-mail: claes.uggla@kau.se

We discuss dynamical systems approaches and methods applied to flat Robertson-Walker models in f ( R )-gravity. We argue that a complete description of the solution space of a model requires a global state space analysis that motivates globally covering state space adapted variables. This is shown explicitly by an illustrative example, f ( R ) = R + α R {sup 2}, α > 0, for which we introduce new regular dynamical systems on global compactly extended state spaces for the Jordan and Einstein frames. This example also allows us to illustrate several local and global dynamical systems techniquesmore » involving, e.g., blow ups of nilpotent fixed points, center manifold analysis, averaging, and use of monotone functions. As a result of applying dynamical systems methods to globally state space adapted dynamical systems formulations, we obtain pictures of the entire solution spaces in both the Jordan and the Einstein frames. This shows, e.g., that due to the domain of the conformal transformation between the Jordan and Einstein frames, not all the solutions in the Jordan frame are completely contained in the Einstein frame. We also make comparisons with previous dynamical systems approaches to f ( R ) cosmology and discuss their advantages and disadvantages.« less

Governing Laws of Complex System Predictability under Co-evolving Uncertainty Sources: Theory and Nonlinear Geophysical Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perdigão, R. A. P.

2017-12-01

Predictability assessments are traditionally made on a case-by-case basis, often by running the particular model of interest with randomly perturbed initial/boundary conditions and parameters, producing computationally expensive ensembles. These approaches provide a lumped statistical view of uncertainty evolution, without eliciting the fundamental processes and interactions at play in the uncertainty dynamics. In order to address these limitations, we introduce a systematic dynamical framework for predictability assessment and forecast, by analytically deriving governing equations of predictability in terms of the fundamental architecture of dynamical systems, independent of any particular problem under consideration. The framework further relates multiple uncertainty sources along with their coevolutionary interplay, enabling a comprehensive and explicit treatment of uncertainty dynamics along time, without requiring the actual model to be run. In doing so, computational resources are freed and a quick and effective a-priori systematic dynamic evaluation is made of predictability evolution and its challenges, including aspects in the model architecture and intervening variables that may require optimization ahead of initiating any model runs. It further brings out universal dynamic features in the error dynamics elusive to any case specific treatment, ultimately shedding fundamental light on the challenging issue of predictability. The formulated approach, framed with broad mathematical physics generality in mind, is then implemented in dynamic models of nonlinear geophysical systems with various degrees of complexity, in order to evaluate their limitations and provide informed assistance on how to optimize their design and improve their predictability in fundamental dynamical terms.

Flood Risk and Asset Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-15

Model cascade could include HEC - RAS , HR BREACH and Dynamic RFSM. Action HRW to consider model coupling and advise DM. It was felt useful to...simple loss of life approach. WL can provide input and advise on USACE LIFESIM approaches. To enable comparison with HEC FRM approaches, it was

Simplified and advanced modelling of traction control systems of heavy-haul locomotives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spiryagin, Maksym; Wolfs, Peter; Szanto, Frank; Cole, Colin

2015-05-01

Improving tractive effort is a very complex task in locomotive design. It requires the development of not only mechanical systems but also power systems, traction machines and traction algorithms. At the initial design stage, traction algorithms can be verified by means of a simulation approach. A simple single wheelset simulation approach is not sufficient because all locomotive dynamics are not fully taken into consideration. Given that many traction control strategies exist, the best solution is to use more advanced approaches for such studies. This paper describes the modelling of a locomotive with a bogie traction control strategy based on a co-simulation approach in order to deliver more accurate results. The simplified and advanced modelling approaches of a locomotive electric power system are compared in this paper in order to answer a fundamental question. What level of modelling complexity is necessary for the investigation of the dynamic behaviours of a heavy-haul locomotive running under traction? The simulation results obtained provide some recommendations on simulation processes and the further implementation of advanced and simplified modelling approaches.

An Integrated Approach to Damage Accommodation in Flight Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boskovic, Jovan D.; Knoebel, Nathan; Mehra, Raman K.; Gregory, Irene

2008-01-01

In this paper we present an integrated approach to in-flight damage accommodation in flight control. The approach is based on Multiple Models, Switching and Tuning (MMST), and consists of three steps: In the first step the main objective is to acquire a realistic aircraft damage model. Modeling of in-flight damage is a highly complex problem since there is a large number of issues that need to be addressed. One of the most important one is that there is strong coupling between structural dynamics, aerodynamics, and flight control. These effects cannot be studied separately due to this coupling. Once a realistic damage model is available, in the second step a large number of models corresponding to different damage cases are generated. One possibility is to generate many linear models and interpolate between them to cover a large portion of the flight envelope. Once these models have been generated, we will implement a recently developed-Model Set Reduction (MSR) technique. The technique is based on parameterizing damage in terms of uncertain parameters, and uses concepts from robust control theory to arrive at a small number of "centered" models such that the controllers corresponding to these models assure desired stability and robustness properties over a subset in the parametric space. By devising a suitable model placement strategy, the entire parametric set is covered with a relatively small number of models and controllers. The third step consists of designing a Multiple Models, Switching and Tuning (MMST) strategy for estimating the current operating regime (damage case) of the aircraft, and switching to the corresponding controller to achieve effective damage accommodation and the desired performance. In the paper present a comprehensive approach to damage accommodation using Model Set Design,MMST, and Variable Structure compensation for coupling nonlinearities. The approach was evaluated on a model of F/A-18 aircraft dynamics under control effector damage, augmented by nonlinear cross-coupling terms and a structural dynamics model. The proposed approach achieved excellent performance under severe damage effects.

MODELING MICROBUBBLE DYNAMICS IN BIOMEDICAL APPLICATIONS*

PubMed Central

CHAHINE, Georges L.; HSIAO, Chao-Tsung

2012-01-01

Controlling microbubble dynamics to produce desirable biomedical outcomes when and where necessary and avoid deleterious effects requires advanced knowledge, which can be achieved only through a combination of experimental and numerical/analytical techniques. The present communication presents a multi-physics approach to study the dynamics combining viscous- in-viscid effects, liquid and structure dynamics, and multi bubble interaction. While complex numerical tools are developed and used, the study aims at identifying the key parameters influencing the dynamics, which need to be included in simpler models. PMID:22833696

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (CR&D) Delivery Order 0059: Molecular Dynamics Modeling Support

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

Molecular Dynamics Simulations 5 Theory: Equilibrium Molecular Dynamics Simulations 6 Theory: Non...Equilibrium Molecular Dynamics Simulations 8 Carbon Nanotube Simulations : Approach and results from equilibrium and non-equilibrium molecular dynamics ...touched from the perspective of molecular dynamics simulations . However, ordered systems such as “Carbon Nanotubes” have been investigated in terms

A Constraint Generation Approach to Learning Stable Linear Dynamical Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

task of learning dynamic textures from image sequences as well as to modeling biosurveillance drug-sales data. The constraint generation approach...previous methods in our experiments. One application of LDSs in computer vision is learning dynamic textures from video data [8]. An advantage of...over-the-counter (OTC) drug sales for biosurveillance , and sunspot numbers from the UCR archive [9]. Comparison to the best alternative methods [7, 10

Dynamic model-based N management reduces surplus nitrogen and improves the environmental performance of corn production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sela, S.; Woodbury, P. B.; van Es, H. M.

2018-05-01

The US Midwest is the largest and most intensive corn (Zea mays, L.) production region in the world. However, N losses from corn systems cause serious environmental impacts including dead zones in coastal waters, groundwater pollution, particulate air pollution, and global warming. New approaches to reducing N losses are urgently needed. N surplus is gaining attention as such an approach for multiple cropping systems. We combined experimental data from 127 on-farm field trials conducted in seven US states during the 2011–2016 growing seasons with biochemical simulations using the PNM model to quantify the benefits of a dynamic location-adapted management approach to reduce N surplus. We found that this approach allowed large reductions in N rate (32%) and N surplus (36%) compared to existing static approaches, without reducing yield and substantially reducing yield-scaled N losses (11%). Across all sites, yield-scaled N losses increased linearly with N surplus values above ~48 kg ha‑1. Using the dynamic model-based N management approach enabled growers to get much closer to this target than using existing static methods, while maintaining yield. Therefore, this approach can substantially reduce N surplus and N pollution potential compared to static N management.

Agent-Based Modeling of Mitochondria Links Sub-Cellular Dynamics to Cellular Homeostasis and Heterogeneity.

PubMed

Dalmasso, Giovanni; Marin Zapata, Paula Andrea; Brady, Nathan Ryan; Hamacher-Brady, Anne

2017-01-01

Mitochondria are semi-autonomous organelles that supply energy for cellular biochemistry through oxidative phosphorylation. Within a cell, hundreds of mobile mitochondria undergo fusion and fission events to form a dynamic network. These morphological and mobility dynamics are essential for maintaining mitochondrial functional homeostasis, and alterations both impact and reflect cellular stress states. Mitochondrial homeostasis is further dependent on production (biogenesis) and the removal of damaged mitochondria by selective autophagy (mitophagy). While mitochondrial function, dynamics, biogenesis and mitophagy are highly-integrated processes, it is not fully understood how systemic control in the cell is established to maintain homeostasis, or respond to bioenergetic demands. Here we used agent-based modeling (ABM) to integrate molecular and imaging knowledge sets, and simulate population dynamics of mitochondria and their response to environmental energy demand. Using high-dimensional parameter searches we integrated experimentally-measured rates of mitochondrial biogenesis and mitophagy, and using sensitivity analysis we identified parameter influences on population homeostasis. By studying the dynamics of cellular subpopulations with distinct mitochondrial masses, our approach uncovered system properties of mitochondrial populations: (1) mitochondrial fusion and fission activities rapidly establish mitochondrial sub-population homeostasis, and total cellular levels of mitochondria alter fusion and fission activities and subpopulation distributions; (2) restricting the directionality of mitochondrial mobility does not alter morphology subpopulation distributions, but increases network transmission dynamics; and (3) maintaining mitochondrial mass homeostasis and responding to bioenergetic stress requires the integration of mitochondrial dynamics with the cellular bioenergetic state. Finally, (4) our model suggests sources of, and stress conditions amplifying, cell-to-cell variability of mitochondrial morphology and energetic stress states. Overall, our modeling approach integrates biochemical and imaging knowledge, and presents a novel open-modeling approach to investigate how spatial and temporal mitochondrial dynamics contribute to functional homeostasis, and how subcellular organelle heterogeneity contributes to the emergence of cell heterogeneity.

Agent-Based Modeling of Mitochondria Links Sub-Cellular Dynamics to Cellular Homeostasis and Heterogeneity

PubMed Central

Dalmasso, Giovanni; Marin Zapata, Paula Andrea; Brady, Nathan Ryan; Hamacher-Brady, Anne

2017-01-01

Mitochondria are semi-autonomous organelles that supply energy for cellular biochemistry through oxidative phosphorylation. Within a cell, hundreds of mobile mitochondria undergo fusion and fission events to form a dynamic network. These morphological and mobility dynamics are essential for maintaining mitochondrial functional homeostasis, and alterations both impact and reflect cellular stress states. Mitochondrial homeostasis is further dependent on production (biogenesis) and the removal of damaged mitochondria by selective autophagy (mitophagy). While mitochondrial function, dynamics, biogenesis and mitophagy are highly-integrated processes, it is not fully understood how systemic control in the cell is established to maintain homeostasis, or respond to bioenergetic demands. Here we used agent-based modeling (ABM) to integrate molecular and imaging knowledge sets, and simulate population dynamics of mitochondria and their response to environmental energy demand. Using high-dimensional parameter searches we integrated experimentally-measured rates of mitochondrial biogenesis and mitophagy, and using sensitivity analysis we identified parameter influences on population homeostasis. By studying the dynamics of cellular subpopulations with distinct mitochondrial masses, our approach uncovered system properties of mitochondrial populations: (1) mitochondrial fusion and fission activities rapidly establish mitochondrial sub-population homeostasis, and total cellular levels of mitochondria alter fusion and fission activities and subpopulation distributions; (2) restricting the directionality of mitochondrial mobility does not alter morphology subpopulation distributions, but increases network transmission dynamics; and (3) maintaining mitochondrial mass homeostasis and responding to bioenergetic stress requires the integration of mitochondrial dynamics with the cellular bioenergetic state. Finally, (4) our model suggests sources of, and stress conditions amplifying, cell-to-cell variability of mitochondrial morphology and energetic stress states. Overall, our modeling approach integrates biochemical and imaging knowledge, and presents a novel open-modeling approach to investigate how spatial and temporal mitochondrial dynamics contribute to functional homeostasis, and how subcellular organelle heterogeneity contributes to the emergence of cell heterogeneity. PMID:28060865

IDENTIFICATION OF REGIME SHIFTS IN TIME SERIES USING NEIGHBORHOOD STATISTICS

EPA Science Inventory

The identification of alternative dynamic regimes in ecological systems requires several lines of evidence. Previous work on time series analysis of dynamic regimes includes mainly model-fitting methods. We introduce two methods that do not use models. These approaches use state-...

Analysis, simulation and visualization of 1D tapping via reduced dynamical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackmore, Denis; Rosato, Anthony; Tricoche, Xavier; Urban, Kevin; Zou, Luo

2014-04-01

A low-dimensional center-of-mass dynamical model is devised as a simplified means of approximately predicting some important aspects of the motion of a vertical column comprised of a large number of particles subjected to gravity and periodic vertical tapping. This model is investigated first as a continuous dynamical system using analytical, simulation and visualization techniques. Then, by employing an approach analogous to that used to approximate the dynamics of a bouncing ball on an oscillating flat plate, it is modeled as a discrete dynamical system and analyzed to determine bifurcations and transitions to chaotic motion along with other properties. The predictions of the analysis are then compared-primarily qualitatively-with visualization and simulation results of the reduced continuous model, and ultimately with simulations of the complete system dynamics.

Dynamical model of binary asteroid systems through patched three-body problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrari, Fabio; Lavagna, Michèle; Howell, Kathleen C.

2016-08-01

The paper presents a strategy for trajectory design in the proximity of a binary asteroid pair. A novel patched approach has been used to design trajectories in the binary system, which is modeled by means of two different three-body systems. The model introduces some degrees of freedom with respect to a classical two-body approach and it is intended to model to higher accuracy the peculiar dynamical properties of such irregular and low gravity field bodies, while keeping the advantages of having a full analytical formulation and low computational cost required. The neighborhood of the asteroid couple is split into two regions of influence where two different three-body problems describe the dynamics of the spacecraft. These regions have been identified by introducing the concept of surface of equivalence (SOE), a three-dimensional surface that serves as boundary between the regions of influence of each dynamical model. A case of study is presented, in terms of potential scenario that may benefit of such an approach in solving its mission analysis. Cost-effective solutions to land a vehicle on the surface of a low gravity body are selected by generating Poincaré maps on the SOE, seeking intersections between stable and unstable manifolds of the two patched three-body systems.

Classical Dynamics of Fullerenes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sławianowski, Jan J.; Kotowski, Romuald K.

2017-06-01

The classical mechanics of large molecules and fullerenes is studied. The approach is based on the model of collective motion of these objects. The mixed Lagrangian (material) and Eulerian (space) description of motion is used. In particular, the Green and Cauchy deformation tensors are geometrically defined. The important issue is the group-theoretical approach to describing the affine deformations of the body. The Hamiltonian description of motion based on the Poisson brackets methodology is used. The Lagrange and Hamilton approaches allow us to formulate the mechanics in the canonical form. The method of discretization in analytical continuum theory and in classical dynamics of large molecules and fullerenes enable us to formulate their dynamics in terms of the polynomial expansions of configurations. Another approach is based on the theory of analytical functions and on their approximations by finite-order polynomials. We concentrate on the extremely simplified model of affine deformations or on their higher-order polynomial perturbations.

Toward a Comprehensive Model of Antisocial Development: A Dynamic Systems Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Granic, Isabela; Patterson, Gerald R.

2006-01-01

The purpose of this article is to develop a preliminary comprehensive model of antisocial development based on dynamic systems principles. The model is built on the foundations of behavioral research on coercion theory. First, the authors focus on the principles of multistability, feedback, and nonlinear causality to reconceptualize real-time…

Modeling species occurrence dynamics with multiple states and imperfect detection

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.; Seamans, M.E.; Gutierrez, R.J.

2009-01-01

Recent extensions of occupancy modeling have focused not only on the distribution of species over space, but also on additional state variables (e.g., reproducing or not, with or without disease organisms, relative abundance categories) that provide extra information about occupied sites. These biologist-driven extensions are characterized by ambiguity in both species presence and correct state classification, caused by imperfect detection. We first show the relationships between independently published approaches to the modeling of multistate occupancy. We then extend the pattern-based modeling to the case of sampling over multiple seasons or years in order to estimate state transition probabilities associated with system dynamics. The methodology and its potential for addressing relevant ecological questions are demonstrated using both maximum likelihood (occupancy and successful reproduction dynamics of California Spotted Owl) and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation approaches (changes in relative abundance of green frogs in Maryland). Just as multistate capture-recapture modeling has revolutionized the study of individual marked animals, we believe that multistate occupancy modeling will dramatically increase our ability to address interesting questions about ecological processes underlying population-level dynamics. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Dynamic models for problems of species occurrence with multiple states

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.; Seamans, M.E.; Gutierrez, R.J.

2009-01-01

Recent extensions of occupancy modeling have focused not only on the distribution of species over space, but also on additional state variables (e.g., reproducing or not, with or without disease organisms, relative abundance categories) that provide extra information about occupied sites. These biologist-driven extensions are characterized by ambiguity in both species presence and correct state classification, caused by imperfect detection. We first show the relationships between independently published approaches to the modeling of multistate occupancy. We then extend the pattern-based modeling to the case of sampling over multiple seasons or years in order to estimate state transition probabilities associated with system dynamics. The methodology and its potential for addressing relevant ecological questions are demonstrated using both maximum likelihood (occupancy and successful reproduction dynamics of California Spotted Owl) and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation approaches (changes in relative abundance of green frogs in Maryland). Just as multistate capture?recapture modeling has revolutionized the study of individual marked animals, we believe that multistate occupancy modeling will dramatically increase our ability to address interesting questions about ecological processes underlying population-level dynamics.

A dynamical system approach to Bianchi III cosmology for Hu-Sawicki type f( R) gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banik, Sebika Kangsha; Banik, Debika Kangsha; Bhuyan, Kalyan

2018-02-01

The cosmological dynamics of spatially homogeneous but anisotropic Bianchi type-III space-time is investigated in presence of a perfect fluid within the framework of Hu-Sawicki model. We use the dynamical system approach to perform a detailed analysis of the cosmological behaviour of this model for the model parameters n=1, c_1=1, determining all the fixed points, their stability and corresponding cosmological evolution. We have found stable fixed points with de Sitter solution along with unstable radiation like fixed points. We have identified a matter like point which act like an unstable spiral and when the initial conditions of a trajectory are very close to this point, it stabilizes at a stable accelerating point. Thus, in this model, the universe can naturally approach to a phase of accelerated expansion following a radiation or a matter dominated phase. It is also found that the isotropisation of this model is affected by the spatial curvature and that all the isotropic fixed points are found to be spatially flat.

Synchronicity in predictive modelling: a new view of data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duane, G. S.; Tribbia, J. J.; Weiss, J. B.

2006-11-01

The problem of data assimilation can be viewed as one of synchronizing two dynamical systems, one representing "truth" and the other representing "model", with a unidirectional flow of information between the two. Synchronization of truth and model defines a general view of data assimilation, as machine perception, that is reminiscent of the Jung-Pauli notion of synchronicity between matter and mind. The dynamical systems paradigm of the synchronization of a pair of loosely coupled chaotic systems is expected to be useful because quasi-2D geophysical fluid models have been shown to synchronize when only medium-scale modes are coupled. The synchronization approach is equivalent to standard approaches based on least-squares optimization, including Kalman filtering, except in highly non-linear regions of state space where observational noise links regimes with qualitatively different dynamics. The synchronization approach is used to calculate covariance inflation factors from parameters describing the bimodality of a one-dimensional system. The factors agree in overall magnitude with those used in operational practice on an ad hoc basis. The calculation is robust against the introduction of stochastic model error arising from unresolved scales.

Comparison of ensemble post-processing approaches, based on empirical and dynamical error modelisation of rainfall-runoff model forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chardon, J.; Mathevet, T.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.

2012-04-01

In the context of a national energy company (EDF : Electricité de France), hydro-meteorological forecasts are necessary to ensure safety and security of installations, meet environmental standards and improve water ressources management and decision making. Hydrological ensemble forecasts allow a better representation of meteorological and hydrological forecasts uncertainties and improve human expertise of hydrological forecasts, which is essential to synthesize available informations, coming from different meteorological and hydrological models and human experience. An operational hydrological ensemble forecasting chain has been developed at EDF since 2008 and is being used since 2010 on more than 30 watersheds in France. This ensemble forecasting chain is characterized ensemble pre-processing (rainfall and temperature) and post-processing (streamflow), where a large human expertise is solicited. The aim of this paper is to compare 2 hydrological ensemble post-processing methods developed at EDF in order improve ensemble forecasts reliability (similar to Monatanari &Brath, 2004; Schaefli et al., 2007). The aim of the post-processing methods is to dress hydrological ensemble forecasts with hydrological model uncertainties, based on perfect forecasts. The first method (called empirical approach) is based on a statistical modelisation of empirical error of perfect forecasts, by streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and lead-time. The second method (called dynamical approach) is based on streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and streamflow variation, and lead-time. On a set of 20 watersheds used for operational forecasts, results show that both approaches are necessary to ensure a good post-processing of hydrological ensemble, allowing a good improvement of reliability, skill and sharpness of ensemble forecasts. The comparison of the empirical and dynamical approaches shows the limits of the empirical approach which is not able to take into account hydrological dynamic and processes, i. e. sample heterogeneity. For a same streamflow range corresponds different processes such as rising limbs or recession, where uncertainties are different. The dynamical approach improves reliability, skills and sharpness of forecasts and globally reduces confidence intervals width. When compared in details, the dynamical approach allows a noticeable reduction of confidence intervals during recessions where uncertainty is relatively lower and a slight increase of confidence intervals during rising limbs or snowmelt where uncertainty is greater. The dynamic approach, validated by forecaster's experience that considered the empirical approach not discriminative enough, improved forecaster's confidence and communication of uncertainties. Montanari, A. and Brath, A., (2004). A stochastic approach for assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations. Water Resources Research, 40, W01106, doi:10.1029/2003WR002540. Schaefli, B., Balin Talamba, D. and Musy, A., (2007). Quantifying hydrological modeling errors through a mixture of normal distributions. Journal of Hydrology, 332, 303-315.

Alignment dynamics of diffusive scalar gradient in a two-dimensional model flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, M.

2018-04-01

The Lagrangian two-dimensional approach of scalar gradient kinematics is revisited accounting for molecular diffusion. Numerical simulations are performed in an analytic, parameterized model flow, which enables considering different regimes of scalar gradient dynamics. Attention is especially focused on the influence of molecular diffusion on Lagrangian statistical orientations and on the dynamics of scalar gradient alignment.

Modelling the dynamics of traits involved in fighting-predators-prey system.

PubMed

Kooi, B W

2015-12-01

We study the dynamics of a predator-prey system where predators fight for captured prey besides searching for and handling (and digestion) of the prey. Fighting for prey is modelled by a continuous time hawk-dove game dynamics where the gain depends on the amount of disputed prey while the costs for fighting is constant per fighting event. The strategy of the predator-population is quantified by a trait being the proportion of the number of predator-individuals playing hawk tactics. The dynamics of the trait is described by two models of adaptation: the replicator dynamics (RD) and the adaptive dynamics (AD). In the RD-approach a variant individual with an adapted trait value changes the population's strategy, and consequently its trait value, only when its payoff is larger than the population average. In the AD-approach successful replacement of the resident population after invasion of a rare variant population with an adapted trait value is a step in a sequence changing the population's strategy, and hence its trait value. The main aim is to compare the consequences of the two adaptation models. In an equilibrium predator-prey system this will lead to convergence to a neutral singular strategy, while in the oscillatory system to a continuous singular strategy where in this endpoint the resident population is not invasible by any variant population. In equilibrium (low prey carrying capacity) RD and AD-approach give the same results, however not always in a periodically oscillating system (high prey carrying-capacity) where the trait is density-dependent. For low costs the predator population is monomorphic (only hawks) while for high costs dimorphic (hawks and doves). These results illustrate that intra-specific trait dynamics matters in predator-prey dynamics.

Real-time physics-based 3D biped character animation using an inverted pendulum model.

PubMed

Tsai, Yao-Yang; Lin, Wen-Chieh; Cheng, Kuangyou B; Lee, Jehee; Lee, Tong-Yee

2010-01-01

We present a physics-based approach to generate 3D biped character animation that can react to dynamical environments in real time. Our approach utilizes an inverted pendulum model to online adjust the desired motion trajectory from the input motion capture data. This online adjustment produces a physically plausible motion trajectory adapted to dynamic environments, which is then used as the desired motion for the motion controllers to track in dynamics simulation. Rather than using Proportional-Derivative controllers whose parameters usually cannot be easily set, our motion tracking adopts a velocity-driven method which computes joint torques based on the desired joint angular velocities. Physically correct full-body motion of the 3D character is computed in dynamics simulation using the computed torques and dynamical model of the character. Our experiments demonstrate that tracking motion capture data with real-time response animation can be achieved easily. In addition, physically plausible motion style editing, automatic motion transition, and motion adaptation to different limb sizes can also be generated without difficulty.

How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling.

PubMed

Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall

2016-01-01

Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.

A model selection approach for robust spatio-temporal analysis of dynamics in 4D fluorescence videomicroscopy.

PubMed

Bechar, Ikhlef; Trubuil, Alain

2006-01-01

We describe a novel automatic approach for vesicle trafficking analysis in 3D+T videomicroscopy. Tracking individually objects in time in 3D+T videomicroscopy is known to be a very tedious job and leads generally to unreliable results. So instead, our method proceeds by first identifying trafficking regions in the 3D volume and next analysing at them the vesicle trafficking. The latter is viewed as significant change in the fluorescence of a region in the image. We embed the problem in a model selection framework and we resolve it using dynamic programming. We applied the proposed approach to analyse the vesicle dynamics related to the trafficking of the RAB6A protein between the Golgi apparatus and ER cell compartments.

Differential renormalization-group generators for static and dynamic critical phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, T. S.; Vvedensky, D. D.; Nicoll, J. F.

1992-09-01

The derivation of differential renormalization-group (DRG) equations for applications to static and dynamic critical phenomena is reviewed. The DRG approach provides a self-contained closed-form representation of the Wilson renormalization group (RG) and should be viewed as complementary to the Callan-Symanzik equations used in field-theoretic approaches to the RG. The various forms of DRG equations are derived to illustrate the general mathematical structure of each approach and to point out the advantages and disadvantages for performing practical calculations. Otherwise, the review focuses upon the one-particle-irreducible DRG equations derived by Nicoll and Chang and by Chang, Nicoll, and Young; no attempt is made to provide a general treatise of critical phenomena. A few specific examples are included to illustrate the utility of the DRG approach: the large- n limit of the classical n-vector model (the spherical model), multi- or higher-order critical phenomena, and crit ical dynamics far from equilibrium. The large- n limit of the n-vector model is used to introduce the application of DRG equations to a well-known example, with exact solution obtained for the nonlinear trajectories, generating functions for nonlinear scaling fields, and the equation of state. Trajectory integrals and nonlinear scaling fields within the framework of ɛ-expansions are then discussed for tricritical crossover, and briefly for certain aspects of multi- or higher-order critical points, including the derivation of the Helmholtz free energy and the equation of state. The discussion then turns to critical dynamics with a development of the path integral formulation for general dynamic processes. This is followed by an application to a model far-from-equilibrium system that undergoes a phase transformation analogous to a second-order critical point, the Schlögl model for a chemical instability.

Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam's Window.

PubMed

Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E

2016-01-01

Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam's window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods.

Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam’s Window*

PubMed Central

Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E.

2015-01-01

Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam’s window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods. PMID:26917859

The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

2017-06-01

Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

Aircraft Dynamic Modeling in Turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene A.; Cunninham, Kevin

2012-01-01

A method for accurately identifying aircraft dynamic models in turbulence was developed and demonstrated. The method uses orthogonal optimized multisine excitation inputs and an analytic method for enhancing signal-to-noise ratio for dynamic modeling in turbulence. A turbulence metric was developed to accurately characterize the turbulence level using flight measurements. The modeling technique was demonstrated in simulation, then applied to a subscale twin-engine jet transport aircraft in flight. Comparisons of modeling results obtained in turbulent air to results obtained in smooth air were used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

Classical molecular dynamics simulation of electronically non-adiabatic processes.

PubMed

Miller, William H; Cotton, Stephen J

2016-12-22

Both classical and quantum mechanics (as well as hybrids thereof, i.e., semiclassical approaches) find widespread use in simulating dynamical processes in molecular systems. For large chemical systems, however, which involve potential energy surfaces (PES) of general/arbitrary form, it is usually the case that only classical molecular dynamics (MD) approaches are feasible, and their use is thus ubiquitous nowadays, at least for chemical processes involving dynamics on a single PES (i.e., within a single Born-Oppenheimer electronic state). This paper reviews recent developments in an approach which extends standard classical MD methods to the treatment of electronically non-adiabatic processes, i.e., those that involve transitions between different electronic states. The approach treats nuclear and electronic degrees of freedom (DOF) equivalently (i.e., by classical mechanics, thereby retaining the simplicity of standard MD), and provides "quantization" of the electronic states through a symmetrical quasi-classical (SQC) windowing model. The approach is seen to be capable of treating extreme regimes of strong and weak coupling between the electronic states, as well as accurately describing coherence effects in the electronic DOF (including the de-coherence of such effects caused by coupling to the nuclear DOF). A survey of recent applications is presented to illustrate the performance of the approach. Also described is a newly developed variation on the original SQC model (found universally superior to the original) and a general extension of the SQC model to obtain the full electronic density matrix (at no additional cost/complexity).

Spreading dynamics on complex networks: a general stochastic approach.

PubMed

Noël, Pierre-André; Allard, Antoine; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Marceau, Vincent; Dubé, Louis J

2014-12-01

Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach is especially well adapted for modelling spreading processes and/or population dynamics. In particular, the generality of our framework and the fact that its assumptions are explicitly stated suggests that it could be used as a common ground for comparing existing epidemics models too complex for direct comparison, such as agent-based computer simulations. We provide many examples for the special cases of susceptible-infectious-susceptible and susceptible-infectious-removed dynamics (e.g., epidemics propagation) and we observe multiple situations where accurate results may be obtained at low computational cost. Our perspective reveals a subtle balance between the complex requirements of a realistic model and its basic assumptions.

Progress in the Phase 0 Model Development of a STAR Concept for Dynamics and Control Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woods-Vedeler, Jessica A.; Armand, Sasan C.

2003-01-01

The paper describes progress in the development of a lightweight, deployable passive Synthetic Thinned Aperture Radiometer (STAR). The spacecraft concept presented will enable the realization of 10 km resolution global soil moisture and ocean salinity measurements at 1.41 GHz. The focus of this work was on definition of an approximately 1/3-scaled, 5-meter Phase 0 test article for concept demonstration and dynamics and control testing. Design requirements, parameters and a multi-parameter, hybrid scaling approach for the dynamically scaled test model were established. The El Scaling Approach that was established allows designers freedom to define the cross section of scaled, lightweight structural components that is most convenient for manufacturing when the mass of the component is small compared to the overall system mass. Static and dynamic response analysis was conducted on analytical models to evaluate system level performance and to optimize panel geometry for optimal tension load distribution.

Dynamic analysis of process reactors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shadle, L.J.; Lawson, L.O.; Noel, S.D.

1995-06-01

The approach and methodology of conducting a dynamic analysis is presented in this poster session in order to describe how this type of analysis can be used to evaluate the operation and control of process reactors. Dynamic analysis of the PyGas{trademark} gasification process is used to illustrate the utility of this approach. PyGas{trademark} is the gasifier being developed for the Gasification Product Improvement Facility (GPIF) by Jacobs-Siffine Engineering and Riley Stoker. In the first step of the analysis, process models are used to calculate the steady-state conditions and associated sensitivities for the process. For the PyGas{trademark} gasifier, the process modelsmore » are non-linear mechanistic models of the jetting fluidized-bed pyrolyzer and the fixed-bed gasifier. These process sensitivities are key input, in the form of gain parameters or transfer functions, to the dynamic engineering models.« less

Solar Activity Across the Scales: From Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy N.; Kosovichev, Alexander G.; Mansour, Nagi N.; Wray, Alan A.

2017-01-01

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar activity across the scales: from small-scale quiet-Sun dynamics to magnetic activity cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitiashvili, I.; Collins, N.; Kosovichev, A. G.; Mansour, N. N.; Wray, A. A.

2017-12-01

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high-resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Dynamical approach to fusion-fission process in superheavy mass region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aritomo, Y.; Hinde, D. J.; Wakhle, A.; du Rietz, R.; Dasgupta, M.; Hagino, K.; Chiba, S.; Nishio, K.

2012-10-01

In order to describe heavy-ion fusion reactions around the Coulomb barrier with an actinide target nucleus, we propose a model which combines the coupled-channels approach and a fluctuation-dissipation model for dynamical calculations. This model takes into account couplings to the collective states of the interacting nuclei in the penetration of the Coulomb barrier and the subsequent dynamical evolution of a nuclear shape from the contact configuration. In the fluctuation-dissipation model with a Langevin equation, the effect of nuclear orientation at the initial impact on the prolately deformed target nucleus is considered. Fusion-fission, quasifission and deep quasifission are separated as different Langevin trajectories on the potential energy surface. Using this model, we analyze the experimental data for the mass distribution of fission fragments (MDFF) in the reaction of 36S+238U at several incident energies around the Coulomb barrier.

Modeling Protective Anti-Tumor Immunity via Preventative Cancer Vaccines Using a Hybrid Agent-based and Delay Differential Equation Approach

PubMed Central

Kim, Peter S.; Lee, Peter P.

2012-01-01

A next generation approach to cancer envisions developing preventative vaccinations to stimulate a person's immune cells, particularly cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs), to eliminate incipient tumors before clinical detection. The purpose of our study is to quantitatively assess whether such an approach would be feasible, and if so, how many anti-cancer CTLs would have to be primed against tumor antigen to provide significant protection. To understand the relevant dynamics, we develop a two-compartment model of tumor-immune interactions at the tumor site and the draining lymph node. We model interactions at the tumor site using an agent-based model (ABM) and dynamics in the lymph node using a system of delay differential equations (DDEs). We combine the models into a hybrid ABM-DDE system and investigate dynamics over a wide range of parameters, including cell proliferation rates, tumor antigenicity, CTL recruitment times, and initial memory CTL populations. Our results indicate that an anti-cancer memory CTL pool of 3% or less can successfully eradicate a tumor population over a wide range of model parameters, implying that a vaccination approach is feasible. In addition, sensitivity analysis of our model reveals conditions that will result in rapid tumor destruction, oscillation, and polynomial rather than exponential decline in the tumor population due to tumor geometry. PMID:23133347

Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part I: Introducing knowledge into the dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmieder, R.W.

The author presents a new approach for modeling the dynamics of collections of objects with internal structure. Based on the fact that the behavior of an individual in a population is modified by its knowledge of other individuals, a procedure for accounting for knowledge in a population of interacting objects is presented. It is assumed that each object has partial (or complete) knowledge of some (or all) other objects in the population. The dynamical equations for the objects are then modified to include the effects of this pairwise knowledge. This procedure has the effect of projecting out what the populationmore » will do from the much larger space of what it could do, i.e., filtering or smoothing the dynamics by replacing the complex detailed physical model with an effective model that produces the behavior of interest. The procedure therefore provides a minimalist approach for obtaining emergent collective behavior. The use of knowledge as a dynamical quantity, and its relationship to statistical mechanics, thermodynamics, information theory, and cognition microstructure are discussed.« less

Development of Continuum-Atomistic Approach for Modeling Metal Irradiation by Heavy Ions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batgerel, Balt; Dimova, Stefka; Puzynin, Igor; Puzynina, Taisia; Hristov, Ivan; Hristova, Radoslava; Tukhliev, Zafar; Sharipov, Zarif

2018-02-01

Over the last several decades active research in the field of materials irradiation by high-energy heavy ions has been worked out. The experiments in this area are labor-consuming and expensive. Therefore the improvement of the existing mathematical models and the development of new ones based on the experimental data of interaction of high-energy heavy ions with materials are of interest. Presently, two approaches are used for studying these processes: a thermal spike model and molecular dynamics methods. The combination of these two approaches - the continuous-atomistic model - will give the opportunity to investigate more thoroughly the processes of irradiation of materials by high-energy heavy ions. To solve the equations of the continuous-atomistic model, a software package was developed and the block of molecular dynamics software was tested on the heterogeneous cluster HybriLIT.

Understanding ecohydrological connectivity in savannas: A system dynamics modeling approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecohydrological connectivity is a system-level property that results from the linkages in the networks of water transport through ecosystems, by which feedback effects and other emergent system behaviors may be generated. We created a systems dynamic model that represents primary ecohydrological net...

Non-Deterministic Modelling of Food-Web Dynamics

PubMed Central

Planque, Benjamin; Lindstrøm, Ulf; Subbey, Sam

2014-01-01

A novel approach to model food-web dynamics, based on a combination of chance (randomness) and necessity (system constraints), was presented by Mullon et al. in 2009. Based on simulations for the Benguela ecosystem, they concluded that observed patterns of ecosystem variability may simply result from basic structural constraints within which the ecosystem functions. To date, and despite the importance of these conclusions, this work has received little attention. The objective of the present paper is to replicate this original model and evaluate the conclusions that were derived from its simulations. For this purpose, we revisit the equations and input parameters that form the structure of the original model and implement a comparable simulation model. We restate the model principles and provide a detailed account of the model structure, equations, and parameters. Our model can reproduce several ecosystem dynamic patterns: pseudo-cycles, variation and volatility, diet, stock-recruitment relationships, and correlations between species biomass series. The original conclusions are supported to a large extent by the current replication of the model. Model parameterisation and computational aspects remain difficult and these need to be investigated further. Hopefully, the present contribution will make this approach available to a larger research community and will promote the use of non-deterministic-network-dynamics models as ‘null models of food-webs’ as originally advocated. PMID:25299245

FATE-HD: A spatially and temporally explicit integrated model for predicting vegetation structure and diversity at regional scale

PubMed Central

Isabelle, Boulangeat; Damien, Georges; Wilfried, Thuiller

2014-01-01

During the last decade, despite strenuous efforts to develop new models and compare different approaches, few conclusions have been drawn on their ability to provide robust biodiversity projections in an environmental change context. The recurring suggestions are that models should explicitly (i) include spatiotemporal dynamics; (ii) consider multiple species in interactions; and (iii) account for the processes shaping biodiversity distribution. This paper presents a biodiversity model (FATE-HD) that meets this challenge at regional scale by combining phenomenological and process-based approaches and using well-defined plant functional groups. FATE-HD has been tested and validated in a French National Park, demonstrating its ability to simulate vegetation dynamics, structure and diversity in response to disturbances and climate change. The analysis demonstrated the importance of considering biotic interactions, spatio-temporal dynamics, and disturbances in addition to abiotic drivers to simulate vegetation dynamics. The distribution of pioneer trees was particularly improved, as were all undergrowth functional groups. PMID:24214499

Numerical approach to model independently reconstruct f (R ) functions through cosmographic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pizza, Liberato

2015-06-01

The challenging issue of determining the correct f (R ) among several possibilities is revised here by means of numerical reconstructions of the modified Friedmann equations around the redshift interval z ∈[0 ,1 ] . Frequently, a severe degeneracy between f (R ) approaches occurs, since different paradigms correctly explain present time dynamics. To set the initial conditions on the f (R ) functions, we involve the use of the so-called cosmography of the Universe, i.e., the technique of fixing constraints on the observable Universe by comparing expanded observables with current data. This powerful approach is essentially model independent, and correspondingly we got a model-independent reconstruction of f (R (z )) classes within the interval z ∈[0 ,1 ]. To allow the Hubble rate to evolve around z ≤1 , we considered three relevant frameworks of effective cosmological dynamics, i.e., the Λ CDM model, the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder parametrization, and a polynomial approach to dark energy. Finally, cumbersome algebra permits passing from f (z ) to f (R ), and the general outcome of our work is the determination of a viable f (R ) function, which effectively describes the observed Universe dynamics.

Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulation of Flows in an Oxidation Ditch Driven by a New Surface Aerator.

PubMed

Huang, Weidong; Li, Kun; Wang, Gan; Wang, Yingzhe

2013-11-01

In this article, we present a newly designed inverse umbrella surface aerator, and tested its performance in driving flow of an oxidation ditch. Results show that it has a better performance in driving the oxidation ditch than the original one with higher average velocity and more uniform flow field. We also present a computational fluid dynamics model for predicting the flow field in an oxidation ditch driven by a surface aerator. The improved momentum source term approach to simulate the flow field of the oxidation ditch driven by an inverse umbrella surface aerator was developed and validated through experiments. Four kinds of turbulent models were investigated with the approach, including the standard k - ɛ model, RNG k - ɛ model, realizable k - ɛ model, and Reynolds stress model, and the predicted data were compared with those calculated with the multiple rotating reference frame approach (MRF) and sliding mesh approach (SM). Results of the momentum source term approach are in good agreement with the experimental data, and its prediction accuracy is better than MRF, close to SM. It is also found that the momentum source term approach has lower computational expenses, is simpler to preprocess, and is easier to use.

Assessment of dynamic effects on aircraft design loads: The landing impact case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bronstein, Michael; Feldman, Esther; Vescovini, Riccardo; Bisagni, Chiara

2015-10-01

This paper addresses the potential benefits due to a fully dynamic approach to determine the design loads of a mid-size business jet. The study is conducted by considering the fuselage midsection of the DAEDALOS aircraft model with landing impact conditions. The comparison is presented in terms of stress levels between the novel dynamic approach and the standard design practice based on the use of equivalent static loads. The results illustrate that a slight reduction of the load levels can be achieved, but careful modeling of the damping level is needed. Guidelines for an improved load definition are discussed, and suggestions for future research activities are provided.

A study on predicting network corrections in PPP-RTK processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kan; Khodabandeh, Amir; Teunissen, Peter

2017-10-01

In PPP-RTK processing, the network corrections including the satellite clocks, the satellite phase biases and the ionospheric delays are provided to the users to enable fast single-receiver integer ambiguity resolution. To solve the rank deficiencies in the undifferenced observation equations, the estimable parameters are formed to generate full-rank design matrix. In this contribution, we firstly discuss the interpretation of the estimable parameters without and with a dynamic satellite clock model incorporated in a Kalman filter during the network processing. The functionality of the dynamic satellite clock model is tested in the PPP-RTK processing. Due to the latency generated by the network processing and data transfer, the network corrections are delayed for the real-time user processing. To bridge the latencies, we discuss and compare two prediction approaches making use of the network corrections without and with the dynamic satellite clock model, respectively. The first prediction approach is based on the polynomial fitting of the estimated network parameters, while the second approach directly follows the dynamic model in the Kalman filter of the network processing and utilises the satellite clock drifts estimated in the network processing. Using 1 Hz data from two networks in Australia, the influences of the two prediction approaches on the user positioning results are analysed and compared for latencies ranging from 3 to 10 s. The accuracy of the positioning results decreases with the increasing latency of the network products. For a latency of 3 s, the RMS of the horizontal and the vertical coordinates (with respect to the ground truth) do not show large differences applying both prediction approaches. For a latency of 10 s, the prediction approach making use of the satellite clock model has generated slightly better positioning results with the differences of the RMS at mm-level. Further advantages and disadvantages of both prediction approaches are also discussed in this contribution.

Longitudinal Models of Reliability and Validity: A Latent Curve Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tisak, John; Tisak, Marie S.

1996-01-01

Dynamic generalizations of reliability and validity that will incorporate longitudinal or developmental models, using latent curve analysis, are discussed. A latent curve model formulated to depict change is incorporated into the classical definitions of reliability and validity. The approach is illustrated with sociological and psychological…

Redox condition in molten salts and solute behavior: A first-principles molecular dynamics study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nam, Hyo On; Morgan, Dane

2015-10-01

Molten salts technology is of significant interest for nuclear, solar, and other energy systems. In this work, first-principles molecular dynamics (FPMD) was used to model the solute behavior in eutectic LiCl-KCl and FLiBe (Li2BeF4) melts at 773 K and 973 K, respectively. The thermo-kinetic properties for solute systems such as the redox potential, solute diffusion coefficients and structural information surrounding the solute were predicted from FPMD modeling and the calculated properties are generally in agreement with the experiments. In particular, we formulate an approach to model redox energetics vs. chlorine (or fluorine) potential from first-principles approaches. This study develops approaches for, and demonstrates the capabilities of, FPMD to model solute properties in molten salts.

Combined Molecular Dynamics Simulation-Molecular-Thermodynamic Theory Framework for Predicting Surface Tensions.

PubMed

Sresht, Vishnu; Lewandowski, Eric P; Blankschtein, Daniel; Jusufi, Arben

2017-08-22

A molecular modeling approach is presented with a focus on quantitative predictions of the surface tension of aqueous surfactant solutions. The approach combines classical Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations with a molecular-thermodynamic theory (MTT) [ Y. J. Nikas, S. Puvvada, D. Blankschtein, Langmuir 1992 , 8 , 2680 ]. The MD component is used to calculate thermodynamic and molecular parameters that are needed in the MTT model to determine the surface tension isotherm. The MD/MTT approach provides the important link between the surfactant bulk concentration, the experimental control parameter, and the surfactant surface concentration, the MD control parameter. We demonstrate the capability of the MD/MTT modeling approach on nonionic alkyl polyethylene glycol surfactants at the air-water interface and observe reasonable agreement of the predicted surface tensions and the experimental surface tension data over a wide range of surfactant concentrations below the critical micelle concentration. Our modeling approach can be extended to ionic surfactants and their mixtures with both ionic and nonionic surfactants at liquid-liquid interfaces.

Development of a Dynamic Energy Budget Modeling Approach to Investigate the Effects of Temperature and Resource Limitation on Mercury Bioaccumulation in Fundulus Heteroclitus

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population persistence and growth. To explore this approach, we are conducting growth and bioaccumulation studies that cont...

Development of a dynamic energy budget modeling approach to investigate the effects of temperature and resource limitation on mercury bioaccumulation in Fundulus heteroclitus-presentation

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population survival and growth. To explore this approach, we are conducting growth and bioaccumulation studies that contrib...

Development of a dynamic energy budget modeling approach to investigate the effects of temperature and resource limitation on mercury bioaccumulation in Fundulus heteroclitus.

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory provides a generalizable and broadly applicable framework to connect sublethal toxic effects on individuals to changes in population survival and growth. To explore this approach, we are developing growth and bioaccumulation studies that contrib...

Exploring the Impact of Students' Learning Approach on Collaborative Group Modeling of Blood Circulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Shinyoung; Kang, Eunhee; Kim, Heui-Baik

2015-01-01

This study aimed to explore the effect on group dynamics of statements associated with deep learning approaches (DLA) and their contribution to cognitive collaboration and model development during group modeling of blood circulation. A group was selected for an in-depth analysis of collaborative group modeling. This group constructed a model in a…

A Component-Based FPGA Design Framework for Neuronal Ion Channel Dynamics Simulations

PubMed Central

Mak, Terrence S. T.; Rachmuth, Guy; Lam, Kai-Pui; Poon, Chi-Sang

2008-01-01

Neuron-machine interfaces such as dynamic clamp and brain-implantable neuroprosthetic devices require real-time simulations of neuronal ion channel dynamics. Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) has emerged as a high-speed digital platform ideal for such application-specific computations. We propose an efficient and flexible component-based FPGA design framework for neuronal ion channel dynamics simulations, which overcomes certain limitations of the recently proposed memory-based approach. A parallel processing strategy is used to minimize computational delay, and a hardware-efficient factoring approach for calculating exponential and division functions in neuronal ion channel models is used to conserve resource consumption. Performances of the various FPGA design approaches are compared theoretically and experimentally in corresponding implementations of the AMPA and NMDA synaptic ion channel models. Our results suggest that the component-based design framework provides a more memory economic solution as well as more efficient logic utilization for large word lengths, whereas the memory-based approach may be suitable for time-critical applications where a higher throughput rate is desired. PMID:17190033

Correlation techniques to determine model form in robust nonlinear system realization/identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stry, Greselda I.; Mook, D. Joseph

1991-01-01

The fundamental challenge in identification of nonlinear dynamic systems is determining the appropriate form of the model. A robust technique is presented which essentially eliminates this problem for many applications. The technique is based on the Minimum Model Error (MME) optimal estimation approach. A detailed literature review is included in which fundamental differences between the current approach and previous work is described. The most significant feature is the ability to identify nonlinear dynamic systems without prior assumption regarding the form of the nonlinearities, in contrast to existing nonlinear identification approaches which usually require detailed assumptions of the nonlinearities. Model form is determined via statistical correlation of the MME optimal state estimates with the MME optimal model error estimates. The example illustrations indicate that the method is robust with respect to prior ignorance of the model, and with respect to measurement noise, measurement frequency, and measurement record length.

Broad frequency band full field measurements for advanced applications: Point-wise comparisons between optical technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanarini, Alessandro

2018-01-01

The progress of optical systems gives nowadays at disposal on lightweight structures complex dynamic measurements and modal tests, each with its own advantages, drawbacks and preferred usage domains. It is thus more easy than before to obtain highly spatially defined vibration patterns for many applications in vibration engineering, testing and general product development. The potential of three completely different technologies is here benchmarked on a common test rig and advanced applications. SLDV, dynamic ESPI and hi-speed DIC are here first deployed in a complex and unique test on the estimation of FRFs with high spatial accuracy from a thin vibrating plate. The latter exhibits a broad band dynamics and high modal density in the common frequency domain where the techniques can find an operative intersection. A peculiar point-wise comparison is here addressed by means of discrete geometry transforms to put all the three technologies on trial at each physical point of the surface. Full field measurement technologies cannot estimate only displacement fields on a refined grid, but can exploit the spatial consistency of the results through neighbouring locations by means of numerical differentiation operators in the spatial domain to obtain rotational degrees of freedom and superficial dynamic strain distributions, with enhanced quality, compared to other technologies in literature. Approaching the task with the aid of superior quality receptance maps from the three different full field gears, this work calculates and compares rotational and dynamic strain FRFs. Dynamic stress FRFs can be modelled directly from the latter, by means of a constitutive model, avoiding the costly and time-consuming steps of building and tuning a numerical dynamic model of a flexible component or a structure in real life conditions. Once dynamic stress FRFs are obtained, spectral fatigue approaches can try to predict the life of a component in many excitation conditions. Different spectral shaping of the excitation can easily be used to enhance the comparison in the framework of any of the spectral approaches for fatigue life calculations, highlighting benefits and drawbacks of a direct experimental approach to failure and risk assessment in structural dynamics when dealing with complex patterns in real-life testing. Are optical measurements and spatially dense datasets really effective in advanced model updating of lightweight structures with complex structural dynamics? The noise shown in the raw signal of some experiments may pose issues in proficiently exploiting the added data in a fruitful model updating procedure. Model updating results are here compared between scanning and native full field technologies, with comments and details on the test rig, on the advantages and drawbacks of the approaches. The identification of EMA models highlights the increasing quality of shapes that can be obtained from native full field high resolution gears, against that (some time unexpectedly poor) of SLDV tested.

Using an Active-Optical Sensor to Develop an Optimal NDVI Dynamic Model for High-Yield Rice Production (Yangtze, China)

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaojun; Ferguson, Richard B.; Zheng, Hengbiao; Cao, Qiang; Tian, Yongchao; Cao, Weixing; Zhu, Yan

2017-01-01

The successful development of an optimal canopy vegetation index dynamic model for obtaining higher yield can offer a technical approach for real-time and nondestructive diagnosis of rice (Oryza sativa L) growth and nitrogen (N) nutrition status. In this study, multiple rice cultivars and N treatments of experimental plots were carried out to obtain: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), leaf area index (LAI), above-ground dry matter (DM), and grain yield (GY) data. The quantitative relationships between NDVI and these growth indices (e.g., LAI, DM and GY) were analyzed, showing positive correlations. Using the normalized modeling method, an appropriate NDVI simulation model of rice was established based on the normalized NDVI (RNDVI) and relative accumulative growing degree days (RAGDD). The NDVI dynamic model for high-yield production in rice can be expressed by a double logistic model: RNDVI=(1+e−15.2829×(RAGDDi−0.1944))−1−(1+e−11.6517×(RAGDDi−1.0267))−1 (R2 = 0.8577**), which can be used to accurately predict canopy NDVI dynamic changes during the entire growth period. Considering variation among rice cultivars, we constructed two relative NDVI (RNDVI) dynamic models for Japonica and Indica rice types, with R2 reaching 0.8764** and 0.8874**, respectively. Furthermore, independent experimental data were used to validate the RNDVI dynamic models. The results showed that during the entire growth period, the accuracy (k), precision (R2), and standard deviation of RNDVI dynamic models for the Japonica and Indica cultivars were 0.9991, 1.0170; 0.9084**, 0.8030**; and 0.0232, 0.0170, respectively. These results indicated that RNDVI dynamic models could accurately reflect crop growth and predict dynamic changes in high-yield crop populations, providing a rapid approach for monitoring rice growth status. PMID:28338637

Using an Active-Optical Sensor to Develop an Optimal NDVI Dynamic Model for High-Yield Rice Production (Yangtze, China).

PubMed

Liu, Xiaojun; Ferguson, Richard B; Zheng, Hengbiao; Cao, Qiang; Tian, Yongchao; Cao, Weixing; Zhu, Yan

2017-03-24

The successful development of an optimal canopy vegetation index dynamic model for obtaining higher yield can offer a technical approach for real-time and nondestructive diagnosis of rice (Oryza sativa L) growth and nitrogen (N) nutrition status. In this study, multiple rice cultivars and N treatments of experimental plots were carried out to obtain: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), leaf area index (LAI), above-ground dry matter (DM), and grain yield (GY) data. The quantitative relationships between NDVI and these growth indices (e.g., LAI, DM and GY) were analyzed, showing positive correlations. Using the normalized modeling method, an appropriate NDVI simulation model of rice was established based on the normalized NDVI (RNDVI) and relative accumulative growing degree days (RAGDD). The NDVI dynamic model for high-yield production in rice can be expressed by a double logistic model: RNDVI = ( 1 + e - 15.2829 × ( R A G D D i - 0.1944 ) ) - 1 - ( 1 + e - 11.6517 × ( R A G D D i - 1.0267 ) ) - 1 (R2 = 0.8577**), which can be used to accurately predict canopy NDVI dynamic changes during the entire growth period. Considering variation among rice cultivars, we constructed two relative NDVI (RNDVI) dynamic models for Japonica and Indica rice types, with R2 reaching 0.8764** and 0.8874**, respectively. Furthermore, independent experimental data were used to validate the RNDVI dynamic models. The results showed that during the entire growth period, the accuracy (k), precision (R2), and standard deviation of RNDVI dynamic models for the Japonica and Indica cultivars were 0.9991, 1.0170; 0.9084**, 0.8030**; and 0.0232, 0.0170, respectively. These results indicated that RNDVI dynamic models could accurately reflect crop growth and predict dynamic changes in high-yield crop populations, providing a rapid approach for monitoring rice growth status.

Update: Advancement of Contact Dynamics Modeling for Human Spaceflight Simulation Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brain, Thomas A.; Kovel, Erik B.; MacLean, John R.; Quiocho, Leslie J.

2017-01-01

Pong is a new software tool developed at the NASA Johnson Space Center that advances interference-based geometric contact dynamics based on 3D graphics models. The Pong software consists of three parts: a set of scripts to extract geometric data from 3D graphics models, a contact dynamics engine that provides collision detection and force calculations based on the extracted geometric data, and a set of scripts for visualizing the dynamics response with the 3D graphics models. The contact dynamics engine can be linked with an external multibody dynamics engine to provide an integrated multibody contact dynamics simulation. This paper provides a detailed overview of Pong including the overall approach and modeling capabilities, which encompasses force generation from contact primitives and friction to computational performance. Two specific Pong-based examples of International Space Station applications are discussed, and the related verification and validation using this new tool are also addressed.

Adaptive modeling of viral diseases in bats with a focus on rabies.

PubMed

Dimitrov, Dobromir T; Hallam, Thomas G; Rupprecht, Charles E; McCracken, Gary F

2008-11-07

Many emerging and reemerging viruses, such as rabies, SARS, Marburg, and Ebola have bat populations as disease reservoirs. Understanding the spillover from bats to humans and other animals, and the associated health risks requires an analysis of the disease dynamics in bat populations. Traditional compartmental epizootic models, which are relatively easy to implement and analyze, usually impose unrealistic aggregation assumptions about disease-related structure and depend on parameters that frequently are not measurable in field conditions. We propose a novel combination of computational and adaptive modeling approaches that address the maintenance of emerging diseases in bat colonies through individual (intra-host) models of the response of the host to a viral challenge. The dynamics of the individual models are used to define survival, susceptibility and transmission conditions relevant to epizootics as well as to develop and parametrize models of the disease evolution into uniform and diverse populations. Applications of the proposed approach to modeling the effects of immunological heterogeneity on the dynamics of bat rabies are presented.

Application of Probabilistic Analysis to Aircraft Impact Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyle, Karen H.; Padula, Sharon L.; Stockwell, Alan E.

2003-01-01

Full-scale aircraft crash simulations performed with nonlinear, transient dynamic, finite element codes can incorporate structural complexities such as: geometrically accurate models; human occupant models; and advanced material models to include nonlinear stressstrain behaviors, laminated composites, and material failure. Validation of these crash simulations is difficult due to a lack of sufficient information to adequately determine the uncertainty in the experimental data and the appropriateness of modeling assumptions. This paper evaluates probabilistic approaches to quantify the uncertainty in the simulated responses. Several criteria are used to determine that a response surface method is the most appropriate probabilistic approach. The work is extended to compare optimization results with and without probabilistic constraints.

Knowledge mobilisation for policy development: implementing systems approaches through participatory dynamic simulation modelling.

PubMed

Freebairn, Louise; Rychetnik, Lucie; Atkinson, Jo-An; Kelly, Paul; McDonnell, Geoff; Roberts, Nick; Whittall, Christine; Redman, Sally

2017-10-02

Evidence-based decision-making is an important foundation for health policy and service planning decisions, yet there remain challenges in ensuring that the many forms of available evidence are considered when decisions are being made. Mobilising knowledge for policy and practice is an emergent process, and one that is highly relational, often messy and profoundly context dependent. Systems approaches, such as dynamic simulation modelling can be used to examine both complex health issues and the context in which they are embedded, and to develop decision support tools. This paper reports on the novel use of participatory simulation modelling as a knowledge mobilisation tool in Australian real-world policy settings. We describe how this approach combined systems science methodology and some of the core elements of knowledge mobilisation best practice. We describe the strategies adopted in three case studies to address both technical and socio-political issues, and compile the experiential lessons derived. Finally, we consider the implications of these knowledge mobilisation case studies and provide evidence for the feasibility of this approach in policy development settings. Participatory dynamic simulation modelling builds on contemporary knowledge mobilisation approaches for health stakeholders to collaborate and explore policy and health service scenarios for priority public health topics. The participatory methods place the decision-maker at the centre of the process and embed deliberative methods and co-production of knowledge. The simulation models function as health policy and programme dynamic decision support tools that integrate diverse forms of evidence, including research evidence, expert knowledge and localised contextual information. Further research is underway to determine the impact of these methods on health service decision-making.

Earth and ocean modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knezovich, F. M.

1976-01-01

A modular structured system of computer programs is presented utilizing earth and ocean dynamical data keyed to finitely defined parameters. The model is an assemblage of mathematical algorithms with an inherent capability of maturation with progressive improvements in observational data frequencies, accuracies and scopes. The Eom in its present state is a first-order approach to a geophysical model of the earth's dynamics.

Self-calibrating models for dynamic monitoring and diagnosis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuipers, Benjamin

1996-01-01

A method for automatically building qualitative and semi-quantitative models of dynamic systems, and using them for monitoring and fault diagnosis, is developed and demonstrated. The qualitative approach and semi-quantitative method are applied to monitoring observation streams, and to design of non-linear control systems.

Designing attractive models via automated identification of chaotic and oscillatory dynamical regimes.

PubMed

Silk, Daniel; Kirk, Paul D W; Barnes, Chris P; Toni, Tina; Rose, Anna; Moon, Simon; Dallman, Margaret J; Stumpf, Michael P H

2011-10-04

Chaos and oscillations continue to capture the interest of both the scientific and public domains. Yet despite the importance of these qualitative features, most attempts at constructing mathematical models of such phenomena have taken an indirect, quantitative approach, for example, by fitting models to a finite number of data points. Here we develop a qualitative inference framework that allows us to both reverse-engineer and design systems exhibiting these and other dynamical behaviours by directly specifying the desired characteristics of the underlying dynamical attractor. This change in perspective from quantitative to qualitative dynamics, provides fundamental and new insights into the properties of dynamical systems.

Modeling Common-Sense Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zak, Michail

This paper presents a methodology for efficient synthesis of dynamical model simulating a common-sense decision making process. The approach is based upon the extension of the physics' First Principles that includes behavior of living systems. The new architecture consists of motor dynamics simulating actual behavior of the object, and mental dynamics representing evolution of the corresponding knowledge-base and incorporating it in the form of information flows into the motor dynamics. The autonomy of the decision making process is achieved by a feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by an internal knowledgebase stored in the mental model in the form of probability distributions.

A domain decomposition approach to implementing fault slip in finite-element models of quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aagaard, Brad T.; Knepley, M.G.; Williams, C.A.

2013-01-01

We employ a domain decomposition approach with Lagrange multipliers to implement fault slip in a finite-element code, PyLith, for use in both quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation applications. This integrated approach to solving both quasi-static and dynamic simulations leverages common finite-element data structures and implementations of various boundary conditions, discretization schemes, and bulk and fault rheologies. We have developed a custom preconditioner for the Lagrange multiplier portion of the system of equations that provides excellent scalability with problem size compared to conventional additive Schwarz methods. We demonstrate application of this approach using benchmarks for both quasi-static viscoelastic deformation and dynamic spontaneous rupture propagation that verify the numerical implementation in PyLith.

Research in Distance Education: A System Modeling Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saba, Farhad; Twitchell, David

1988-01-01

Describes how a computer simulation research method can be used for studying distance education systems. Topics discussed include systems research in distance education; a technique of model development using the System Dynamics approach and DYNAMO simulation language; and a computer simulation of a prototype model. (18 references) (LRW)

Dynamic modelling of n-of-1 data: powerful and flexible data analytics applied to individualised studies.

PubMed

Vieira, Rute; McDonald, Suzanne; Araújo-Soares, Vera; Sniehotta, Falko F; Henderson, Robin

2017-09-01

N-of-1 studies are based on repeated observations within an individual or unit over time and are acknowledged as an important research method for generating scientific evidence about the health or behaviour of an individual. Statistical analyses of n-of-1 data require accurate modelling of the outcome while accounting for its distribution, time-related trend and error structures (e.g., autocorrelation) as well as reporting readily usable contextualised effect sizes for decision-making. A number of statistical approaches have been documented but no consensus exists on which method is most appropriate for which type of n-of-1 design. We discuss the statistical considerations for analysing n-of-1 studies and briefly review some currently used methodologies. We describe dynamic regression modelling as a flexible and powerful approach, adaptable to different types of outcomes and capable of dealing with the different challenges inherent to n-of-1 statistical modelling. Dynamic modelling borrows ideas from longitudinal and event history methodologies which explicitly incorporate the role of time and the influence of past on future. We also present an illustrative example of the use of dynamic regression on monitoring physical activity during the retirement transition. Dynamic modelling has the potential to expand researchers' access to robust and user-friendly statistical methods for individualised studies.

Tracking of Maneuvering Complex Extended Object with Coupled Motion Kinematics and Extension Dynamics Using Range Extent Measurements

PubMed Central

Sun, Lifan; Ji, Baofeng; Lan, Jian; He, Zishu; Pu, Jiexin

2017-01-01

The key to successful maneuvering complex extended object tracking (MCEOT) using range extent measurements provided by high resolution sensors lies in accurate and effective modeling of both the extension dynamics and the centroid kinematics. During object maneuvers, the extension dynamics of an object with a complex shape is highly coupled with the centroid kinematics. However, this difficult but important problem is rarely considered and solved explicitly. In view of this, this paper proposes a general approach to modeling a maneuvering complex extended object based on Minkowski sum, so that the coupled turn maneuvers in both the centroid states and extensions can be described accurately. The new model has a concise and unified form, in which the complex extension dynamics can be simply and jointly characterized by multiple simple sub-objects’ extension dynamics based on Minkowski sum. The proposed maneuvering model fits range extent measurements very well due to its favorable properties. Based on this model, an MCEOT algorithm dealing with motion and extension maneuvers is also derived. Two different cases of the turn maneuvers with known/unknown turn rates are specifically considered. The proposed algorithm which jointly estimates the kinematic state and the object extension can also be easily implemented. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling and tracking approaches. PMID:28937629

The Virtual Brain Integrates Computational Modeling and Multimodal Neuroimaging

PubMed Central

Schirner, Michael; McIntosh, Anthony R.; Jirsa, Viktor K.

2013-01-01

Abstract Brain function is thought to emerge from the interactions among neuronal populations. Apart from traditional efforts to reproduce brain dynamics from the micro- to macroscopic scales, complementary approaches develop phenomenological models of lower complexity. Such macroscopic models typically generate only a few selected—ideally functionally relevant—aspects of the brain dynamics. Importantly, they often allow an understanding of the underlying mechanisms beyond computational reproduction. Adding detail to these models will widen their ability to reproduce a broader range of dynamic features of the brain. For instance, such models allow for the exploration of consequences of focal and distributed pathological changes in the system, enabling us to identify and develop approaches to counteract those unfavorable processes. Toward this end, The Virtual Brain (TVB) (www.thevirtualbrain.org), a neuroinformatics platform with a brain simulator that incorporates a range of neuronal models and dynamics at its core, has been developed. This integrated framework allows the model-based simulation, analysis, and inference of neurophysiological mechanisms over several brain scales that underlie the generation of macroscopic neuroimaging signals. In this article, we describe how TVB works, and we present the first proof of concept. PMID:23442172

Robust input design for nonlinear dynamic modeling of AUV.

PubMed

Nouri, Nowrouz Mohammad; Valadi, Mehrdad

2017-09-01

Input design has a dominant role in developing the dynamic model of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) through system identification. Optimal input design is the process of generating informative inputs that can be used to generate the good quality dynamic model of AUVs. In a problem with optimal input design, the desired input signal depends on the unknown system which is intended to be identified. In this paper, the input design approach which is robust to uncertainties in model parameters is used. The Bayesian robust design strategy is applied to design input signals for dynamic modeling of AUVs. The employed approach can design multiple inputs and apply constraints on an AUV system's inputs and outputs. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is employed to solve the constraint robust optimization problem. The presented algorithm is used for designing the input signals for an AUV, and the estimate obtained by robust input design is compared with that of the optimal input design. According to the results, proposed input design can satisfy both robustness of constraints and optimality. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A compartmental-spatial system dynamics approach to ground water modeling.

PubMed

Roach, Jesse; Tidwell, Vince

2009-01-01

High-resolution, spatially distributed ground water flow models can prove unsuitable for the rapid, interactive analysis that is increasingly demanded to support a participatory decision environment. To address this shortcoming, we extend the idea of multiple cell (Bear 1979) and compartmental (Campana and Simpson 1984) ground water models developed within the context of spatial system dynamics (Ahmad and Simonovic 2004) for rapid scenario analysis. We term this approach compartmental-spatial system dynamics (CSSD). The goal is to balance spatial aggregation necessary to achieve a real-time integrative and interactive decision environment while maintaining sufficient model complexity to yield a meaningful representation of the regional ground water system. As a test case, a 51-compartment CSSD model was built and calibrated from a 100,0001 cell MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh 1988) model of the Albuquerque Basin in central New Mexico (McAda and Barroll 2002). Seventy-seven percent of historical drawdowns predicted by the MODFLOW model were within 1 m of the corresponding CSSD estimates, and in 80% of the historical model run years the CSSD model estimates of river leakage, reservoir leakage, ground water flow to agricultural drains, and riparian evapotranspiration were within 30% of the corresponding estimates from McAda and Barroll (2002), with improved model agreement during the scenario period. Comparisons of model results demonstrate both advantages and limitations of the CCSD model approach.

Controlling flexible structures with second order actuator dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Inman, Daniel J.; Umland, Jeffrey W.; Bellos, John

1989-01-01

The control of flexible structures for those systems with actuators that are modeled by second order dynamics is examined. Two modeling approaches are investigated. First a stability and performance analysis is performed using a low order finite dimensional model of the structure. Secondly, a continuum model of the flexible structure to be controlled, coupled with lumped parameter second order dynamic models of the actuators performing the control is used. This model is appropriate in the modeling of the control of a flexible panel by proof-mass actuators as well as other beam, plate and shell like structural numbers. The model is verified with experimental measurements.

A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2017-04-01

There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

Reaction rates for mesoscopic reaction-diffusion kinetics

DOE PAGES

Hellander, Stefan; Hellander, Andreas; Petzold, Linda

2015-02-23

The mesoscopic reaction-diffusion master equation (RDME) is a popular modeling framework frequently applied to stochastic reaction-diffusion kinetics in systems biology. The RDME is derived from assumptions about the underlying physical properties of the system, and it may produce unphysical results for models where those assumptions fail. In that case, other more comprehensive models are better suited, such as hard-sphere Brownian dynamics (BD). Although the RDME is a model in its own right, and not inferred from any specific microscale model, it proves useful to attempt to approximate a microscale model by a specific choice of mesoscopic reaction rates. In thismore » paper we derive mesoscopic scale-dependent reaction rates by matching certain statistics of the RDME solution to statistics of the solution of a widely used microscopic BD model: the Smoluchowski model with a Robin boundary condition at the reaction radius of two molecules. We also establish fundamental limits on the range of mesh resolutions for which this approach yields accurate results and show both theoretically and in numerical examples that as we approach the lower fundamental limit, the mesoscopic dynamics approach the microscopic dynamics. Finally, we show that for mesh sizes below the fundamental lower limit, results are less accurate. Thus, the lower limit determines the mesh size for which we obtain the most accurate results.« less

Reaction rates for mesoscopic reaction-diffusion kinetics

PubMed Central

Hellander, Stefan; Hellander, Andreas; Petzold, Linda

2016-01-01

The mesoscopic reaction-diffusion master equation (RDME) is a popular modeling framework frequently applied to stochastic reaction-diffusion kinetics in systems biology. The RDME is derived from assumptions about the underlying physical properties of the system, and it may produce unphysical results for models where those assumptions fail. In that case, other more comprehensive models are better suited, such as hard-sphere Brownian dynamics (BD). Although the RDME is a model in its own right, and not inferred from any specific microscale model, it proves useful to attempt to approximate a microscale model by a specific choice of mesoscopic reaction rates. In this paper we derive mesoscopic scale-dependent reaction rates by matching certain statistics of the RDME solution to statistics of the solution of a widely used microscopic BD model: the Smoluchowski model with a Robin boundary condition at the reaction radius of two molecules. We also establish fundamental limits on the range of mesh resolutions for which this approach yields accurate results and show both theoretically and in numerical examples that as we approach the lower fundamental limit, the mesoscopic dynamics approach the microscopic dynamics. We show that for mesh sizes below the fundamental lower limit, results are less accurate. Thus, the lower limit determines the mesh size for which we obtain the most accurate results. PMID:25768640

Bridging scales in the evolution of infectious disease life histories: theory.

PubMed

Day, Troy; Alizon, Samuel; Mideo, Nicole

2011-12-01

A significant goal of recent theoretical research on pathogen evolution has been to develop theory that bridges within- and between-host dynamics. The main approach used to date is one that nests within-host models of pathogen replication in models for the between-host spread of infectious diseases. Although this provides an elegant approach, it nevertheless suffers from some practical difficulties. In particular, the information required to satisfactorily model the mechanistic details of the within-host dynamics is not often available. Here, we present a theoretical approach that circumvents these difficulties by quantifying the relevant within-host factors in an empirically tractable way. The approach is closely related to quantitative genetic models for function-valued traits, and it also allows for the prediction of general characteristics of disease life history, including the timing of virulence, transmission, and host recovery. In a companion paper, we illustrate the approach by applying it to data from a model system of malaria. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

An Alternative Approach to the Operation of Multinational Reservoir Systems: Application to the Amistad & Falcon System (Lower Rio Grande/Rí-o Bravo)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Valdes, J. B.

2005-12-01

An optimization approach for the operation of international multi-reservoir systems is presented. The approach uses Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) algorithms, both steady-state and real-time, to develop two models. In the first model, the reservoirs and flows of the system are aggregated to yield an equivalent reservoir, and the obtained operating policies are disaggregated using a non-linear optimization procedure for each reservoir and for each nation water balance. In the second model a multi-reservoir approach is applied, disaggregating the releases for each country water share in each reservoir. The non-linear disaggregation algorithm uses SDP-derived operating policies as boundary conditions for a local time-step optimization. Finally, the performance of the different approaches and methods is compared. These models are applied to the Amistad-Falcon International Reservoir System as part of a binational dynamic modeling effort to develop a decision support system tool for a better management of the water resources in the Lower Rio Grande Basin, currently enduring a severe drought.

Structure and conformational dynamics of scaffolded DNA origami nanoparticles

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-08

all-atom molecular dynamics and coarse-grained finite element modeling to DX-based nanoparticles to elucidate their fine-scale and global conforma... finite element (FE) modeling approach CanDo is also routinely used to predict the 3D equilibrium conformation of programmed DNA assemblies based on a...model with both experimental cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) data and all-atom modeling. MATERIALS AND METHODS Lattice-free finite element model

Modelling Southern Ocean ecosystems: krill, the food-web, and the impacts of harvesting.

PubMed

Hill, S L; Murphy, E J; Reid, K; Trathan, P N; Constable, A J

2006-11-01

The ecosystem approach to fisheries recognises the interdependence between harvested species and other ecosystem components. It aims to account for the propagation of the effects of harvesting through the food-web. The formulation and evaluation of ecosystem-based management strategies requires reliable models of ecosystem dynamics to predict these effects. The krill-based system in the Southern Ocean was the focus of some of the earliest models exploring such effects. It is also a suitable example for the development of models to support the ecosystem approach to fisheries because it has a relatively simple food-web structure and progress has been made in developing models of the key species and interactions, some of which has been motivated by the need to develop ecosystem-based management. Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, is the main target species for the fishery and the main prey of many top predators. It is therefore critical to capture the processes affecting the dynamics and distribution of krill in ecosystem dynamics models. These processes include environmental influences on recruitment and the spatially variable influence of advection. Models must also capture the interactions between krill and its consumers, which are mediated by the spatial structure of the environment. Various models have explored predator-prey population dynamics with simplistic representations of these interactions, while others have focused on specific details of the interactions. There is now a pressing need to develop plausible and practical models of ecosystem dynamics that link processes occurring at these different scales. Many studies have highlighted uncertainties in our understanding of the system, which indicates future priorities in terms of both data collection and developing methods to evaluate the effects of these uncertainties on model predictions. We propose a modelling approach that focuses on harvested species and their monitored consumers and that evaluates model uncertainty by using alternative structures and functional forms in a Monte Carlo framework.

Design an optimum safety policy for personnel safety management - A system dynamic approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaji, P.

2014-10-06

Personnel safety management (PSM) ensures that employee's work conditions are healthy and safe by various proactive and reactive approaches. Nowadays it is a complex phenomenon because of increasing dynamic nature of organisations which results in an increase of accidents. An important part of accident prevention is to understand the existing system properly and make safety strategies for that system. System dynamics modelling appears to be an appropriate methodology to explore and make strategy for PSM. Many system dynamics models of industrial systems have been built entirely for specific host firms. This thesis illustrates an alternative approach. The generic system dynamicsmore » model of Personnel safety management was developed and tested in a host firm. The model was undergone various structural, behavioural and policy tests. The utility and effectiveness of model was further explored through modelling a safety scenario. In order to create effective safety policy under resource constraint, DOE (Design of experiment) was used. DOE uses classic designs, namely, fractional factorials and central composite designs. It used to make second order regression equation which serve as an objective function. That function was optimized under budget constraint and optimum value used for safety policy which shown greatest improvement in overall PSM. The outcome of this research indicates that personnel safety management model has the capability for acting as instruction tool to improve understanding of safety management and also as an aid to policy making.« less

Use of combined biogeochemical model approaches and empirical data to assess critical loads of nitrogen

Treesearch

Mark Fenn; Charles Driscoll; Quingtao Zhou; Leela Rao; Thomas Meixner; Edith Allen; Fengming Yuan; Timothy Sullivan

2015-01-01

Empirical and dynamic biogeochemical modelling are complementary approaches for determining the critical load (CL) of atmospheric nitrogen (N) or other constituent deposition that an ecosystem can tolerate without causing ecological harm. The greatest benefits are obtained when these approaches are used in combination. Confounding environmental factors can complicate...

An ensemble of dynamic neural network identifiers for fault detection and isolation of gas turbine engines.

PubMed

Amozegar, M; Khorasani, K

2016-04-01

In this paper, a new approach for Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) of gas turbine engines is proposed by developing an ensemble of dynamic neural network identifiers. For health monitoring of the gas turbine engine, its dynamics is first identified by constructing three separate or individual dynamic neural network architectures. Specifically, a dynamic multi-layer perceptron (MLP), a dynamic radial-basis function (RBF) neural network, and a dynamic support vector machine (SVM) are trained to individually identify and represent the gas turbine engine dynamics. Next, three ensemble-based techniques are developed to represent the gas turbine engine dynamics, namely, two heterogeneous ensemble models and one homogeneous ensemble model. It is first shown that all ensemble approaches do significantly improve the overall performance and accuracy of the developed system identification scheme when compared to each of the stand-alone solutions. The best selected stand-alone model (i.e., the dynamic RBF network) and the best selected ensemble architecture (i.e., the heterogeneous ensemble) in terms of their performances in achieving an accurate system identification are then selected for solving the FDI task. The required residual signals are generated by using both a single model-based solution and an ensemble-based solution under various gas turbine engine health conditions. Our extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the fault detection and isolation task achieved by using the residuals that are obtained from the dynamic ensemble scheme results in a significantly more accurate and reliable performance as illustrated through detailed quantitative confusion matrix analysis and comparative studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Depth-dependent hydraulic roughness and its impact on the assessment of hydropeaking.

PubMed

Kopecki, Ianina; Schneider, Matthias; Tuhtan, Jeffrey A

2017-01-01

Hydrodynamic river models in combination with physical habitat modelling serve as the basis for a wide spectrum of environmental studies. Larvae, juvenile and spawning fish, redds and benthic invertebrates belong to the biological groups most heavily affected by rapid flow variations as a consequence of peaking energy production, or "hydropeaking". As these species find their preferential habitat to a great extent in shallow regions, high prediction accuracy for these areas is essential to substantiate the use of hydrodynamic models. In this paper, a new formulation for the depth-dependent roughness originating from the boundary layer theory is derived. The modelling approach is based on the concept of a dynamic, spatio-temporal Manning's roughness which allows for considerable improvement in the accuracy of stationary and highly transient hydrodynamic simulations in shallow river areas. In addition, the approach facilitates more effective model calibration, as it allows for the preservation of the roughness sublayer thickness as a single calibration parameter for the entire range of hydropeaking discharges. The approach is tested and validated on a 7.5km long stretch of a middle-size gravel river affected by hydropeaking. Model results using conventional constant roughness and the proposed dynamic roughness approaches are compared. The implications for the stationary habitat assessment and calculation of dynamic hydropeaking parameters are analysed as well. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stochastic modeling and control system designs of the NASA/MSFC Ground Facility for large space structures: The maximum entropy/optimal projection approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsia, Wei-Shen

1986-01-01

In the Control Systems Division of the Systems Dynamics Laboratory of the NASA/MSFC, a Ground Facility (GF), in which the dynamics and control system concepts being considered for Large Space Structures (LSS) applications can be verified, was designed and built. One of the important aspects of the GF is to design an analytical model which will be as close to experimental data as possible so that a feasible control law can be generated. Using Hyland's Maximum Entropy/Optimal Projection Approach, a procedure was developed in which the maximum entropy principle is used for stochastic modeling and the optimal projection technique is used for a reduced-order dynamic compensator design for a high-order plant.

Nonlinear dynamic analysis of flexible multibody systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauchau, Olivier A.; Kang, Nam Kook

1991-01-01

Two approaches are developed to analyze the dynamic behavior of flexible multibody systems. In the first approach each body is modeled with a modal methodology in a local non-inertial frame of reference, whereas in the second approach, each body is modeled with a finite element methodology in the inertial frame. In both cases, the interaction among the various elastic bodies is represented by constraint equations. The two approaches were compared for accuracy and efficiency: the first approach is preferable when the nonlinearities are not too strong but it becomes cumbersome and expensive to use when many modes must be used. The second approach is more general and easier to implement but could result in high computation costs for a large system. The constraints should be enforced in a time derivative fashion for better accuracy and stability.

A system dynamic modeling approach for evaluating municipal solid waste generation, landfill capacity and related cost management issues.

PubMed

Kollikkathara, Naushad; Feng, Huan; Yu, Danlin

2010-11-01

As planning for sustainable municipal solid waste management has to address several inter-connected issues such as landfill capacity, environmental impacts and financial expenditure, it becomes increasingly necessary to understand the dynamic nature of their interactions. A system dynamics approach designed here attempts to address some of these issues by fitting a model framework for Newark urban region in the US, and running a forecast simulation. The dynamic system developed in this study incorporates the complexity of the waste generation and management process to some extent which is achieved through a combination of simpler sub-processes that are linked together to form a whole. The impact of decision options on the generation of waste in the city, on the remaining landfill capacity of the state, and on the economic cost or benefit actualized by different waste processing options are explored through this approach, providing valuable insights into the urban waste-management process. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Capacity planning for waste management systems: an interval fuzzy robust dynamic programming approach.

PubMed

Nie, Xianghui; Huang, Guo H; Li, Yongping

2009-11-01

This study integrates the concepts of interval numbers and fuzzy sets into optimization analysis by dynamic programming as a means of accounting for system uncertainty. The developed interval fuzzy robust dynamic programming (IFRDP) model improves upon previous interval dynamic programming methods. It allows highly uncertain information to be effectively communicated into the optimization process through introducing the concept of fuzzy boundary interval and providing an interval-parameter fuzzy robust programming method for an embedded linear programming problem. Consequently, robustness of the optimization process and solution can be enhanced. The modeling approach is applied to a hypothetical problem for the planning of waste-flow allocation and treatment/disposal facility expansion within a municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. Interval solutions for capacity expansion of waste management facilities and relevant waste-flow allocation are generated and interpreted to provide useful decision alternatives. The results indicate that robust and useful solutions can be obtained, and the proposed IFRDP approach is applicable to practical problems that are associated with highly complex and uncertain information.

A system dynamic modeling approach for evaluating municipal solid waste generation, landfill capacity and related cost management issues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kollikkathara, Naushad, E-mail: naushadkp@gmail.co; Feng Huan; Yu Danlin

2010-11-15

As planning for sustainable municipal solid waste management has to address several inter-connected issues such as landfill capacity, environmental impacts and financial expenditure, it becomes increasingly necessary to understand the dynamic nature of their interactions. A system dynamics approach designed here attempts to address some of these issues by fitting a model framework for Newark urban region in the US, and running a forecast simulation. The dynamic system developed in this study incorporates the complexity of the waste generation and management process to some extent which is achieved through a combination of simpler sub-processes that are linked together to formmore » a whole. The impact of decision options on the generation of waste in the city, on the remaining landfill capacity of the state, and on the economic cost or benefit actualized by different waste processing options are explored through this approach, providing valuable insights into the urban waste-management process.« less

Integrative modelling for One Health: pattern, process and participation

PubMed Central

Redding, D. W.; Wood, J. L. N.

2017-01-01

This paper argues for an integrative modelling approach for understanding zoonoses disease dynamics, combining process, pattern and participatory models. Each type of modelling provides important insights, but all are limited. Combining these in a ‘3P’ approach offers the opportunity for a productive conversation between modelling efforts, contributing to a ‘One Health’ agenda. The aim is not to come up with a composite model, but seek synergies between perspectives, encouraging cross-disciplinary interactions. We illustrate our argument with cases from Africa, and in particular from our work on Ebola virus and Lassa fever virus. Combining process-based compartmental models with macroecological data offers a spatial perspective on potential disease impacts. However, without insights from the ground, the ‘black box’ of transmission dynamics, so crucial to model assumptions, may not be fully understood. We show how participatory modelling and ethnographic research of Ebola and Lassa fever can reveal social roles, unsafe practices, mobility and movement and temporal changes in livelihoods. Together with longer-term dynamics of change in societies and ecologies, all can be important in explaining disease transmission, and provide important complementary insights to other modelling efforts. An integrative modelling approach therefore can offer help to improve disease control efforts and public health responses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being’. PMID:28584172

Integration of Continuous-Time Dynamics in a Spiking Neural Network Simulator.

PubMed

Hahne, Jan; Dahmen, David; Schuecker, Jannis; Frommer, Andreas; Bolten, Matthias; Helias, Moritz; Diesmann, Markus

2017-01-01

Contemporary modeling approaches to the dynamics of neural networks include two important classes of models: biologically grounded spiking neuron models and functionally inspired rate-based units. We present a unified simulation framework that supports the combination of the two for multi-scale modeling, enables the quantitative validation of mean-field approaches by spiking network simulations, and provides an increase in reliability by usage of the same simulation code and the same network model specifications for both model classes. While most spiking simulations rely on the communication of discrete events, rate models require time-continuous interactions between neurons. Exploiting the conceptual similarity to the inclusion of gap junctions in spiking network simulations, we arrive at a reference implementation of instantaneous and delayed interactions between rate-based models in a spiking network simulator. The separation of rate dynamics from the general connection and communication infrastructure ensures flexibility of the framework. In addition to the standard implementation we present an iterative approach based on waveform-relaxation techniques to reduce communication and increase performance for large-scale simulations of rate-based models with instantaneous interactions. Finally we demonstrate the broad applicability of the framework by considering various examples from the literature, ranging from random networks to neural-field models. The study provides the prerequisite for interactions between rate-based and spiking models in a joint simulation.

Integration of Continuous-Time Dynamics in a Spiking Neural Network Simulator

PubMed Central

Hahne, Jan; Dahmen, David; Schuecker, Jannis; Frommer, Andreas; Bolten, Matthias; Helias, Moritz; Diesmann, Markus

2017-01-01

Contemporary modeling approaches to the dynamics of neural networks include two important classes of models: biologically grounded spiking neuron models and functionally inspired rate-based units. We present a unified simulation framework that supports the combination of the two for multi-scale modeling, enables the quantitative validation of mean-field approaches by spiking network simulations, and provides an increase in reliability by usage of the same simulation code and the same network model specifications for both model classes. While most spiking simulations rely on the communication of discrete events, rate models require time-continuous interactions between neurons. Exploiting the conceptual similarity to the inclusion of gap junctions in spiking network simulations, we arrive at a reference implementation of instantaneous and delayed interactions between rate-based models in a spiking network simulator. The separation of rate dynamics from the general connection and communication infrastructure ensures flexibility of the framework. In addition to the standard implementation we present an iterative approach based on waveform-relaxation techniques to reduce communication and increase performance for large-scale simulations of rate-based models with instantaneous interactions. Finally we demonstrate the broad applicability of the framework by considering various examples from the literature, ranging from random networks to neural-field models. The study provides the prerequisite for interactions between rate-based and spiking models in a joint simulation. PMID:28596730

Archetypal dynamics, emergent situations, and the reality game.

PubMed

Sulis, William

2010-07-01

The classical approach to the modeling of reality is founded upon its objectification. Although successful dealing with inanimate matter, objectification has proven to be much less successful elsewhere, sometimes to the point of paradox. This paper discusses an approach to the modeling of reality based upon the concept of process as formulated within the framework of archetypal dynamics. Reality is conceptualized as an intermingling of information-transducing systems, together with the semantic frames that effectively describe and ascribe meaning to each system, along with particular formal representations of same which constitute the archetypes. Archetypal dynamics is the study of the relationships between systems, frames and their representations and the flow of information among these different entities. In this paper a specific formal representation of archetypal dynamics using tapestries is given, and a dynamics is founded upon this representation in the form of a combinatorial game called a reality game. Some simple examples are presented.

Modeling the dynamical interaction between epidemics on overlay networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marceau, Vincent; Noël, Pierre-André; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Allard, Antoine; Dubé, Louis J.

2011-08-01

Epidemics seldom occur as isolated phenomena. Typically, two or more viral agents spread within the same host population and may interact dynamically with each other. We present a general model where two viral agents interact via an immunity mechanism as they propagate simultaneously on two networks connecting the same set of nodes. By exploiting a correspondence between the propagation dynamics and a dynamical process performing progressive network generation, we develop an analytical approach that accurately captures the dynamical interaction between epidemics on overlay networks. The formalism allows for overlay networks with arbitrary joint degree distribution and overlap. To illustrate the versatility of our approach, we consider a hypothetical delayed intervention scenario in which an immunizing agent is disseminated in a host population to hinder the propagation of an undesirable agent (e.g., the spread of preventive information in the context of an emerging infectious disease).

Ab Initio and Monte Carlo Approaches For the MagnetocaloricEffect in Co- and In-Doped Ni-Mn-Ga Heusler Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolovskiy, Vladimir; Grünebohm, Anna; Buchelnikov, Vasiliy; Entel, Peter

2014-09-01

This special issue collects contributions from the participants of the "Information in Dynamical Systems and Complex Systems" workshop, which cover a wide range of important problems and new approaches that lie in the intersection of information theory and dynamical systems. The contributions include theoretical characterization and understanding of the different types of information flow and causality in general stochastic processes, inference and identification of coupling structure and parameters of system dynamics, rigorous coarse-grain modeling of network dynamical systems, and exact statistical testing of fundamental information-theoretic quantities such as the mutual information. The collective efforts reported herein reflect a modern perspective of the intimate connection between dynamical systems and information flow, leading to the promise of better understanding and modeling of natural complex systems and better/optimal design of engineering systems.

A dynamic appearance descriptor approach to facial actions temporal modeling.

PubMed

Jiang, Bihan; Valstar, Michel; Martinez, Brais; Pantic, Maja

2014-02-01

Both the configuration and the dynamics of facial expressions are crucial for the interpretation of human facial behavior. Yet to date, the vast majority of reported efforts in the field either do not take the dynamics of facial expressions into account, or focus only on prototypic facial expressions of six basic emotions. Facial dynamics can be explicitly analyzed by detecting the constituent temporal segments in Facial Action Coding System (FACS) Action Units (AUs)-onset, apex, and offset. In this paper, we present a novel approach to explicit analysis of temporal dynamics of facial actions using the dynamic appearance descriptor Local Phase Quantization from Three Orthogonal Planes (LPQ-TOP). Temporal segments are detected by combining a discriminative classifier for detecting the temporal segments on a frame-by-frame basis with Markov Models that enforce temporal consistency over the whole episode. The system is evaluated in detail over the MMI facial expression database, the UNBC-McMaster pain database, the SAL database, the GEMEP-FERA dataset in database-dependent experiments, in cross-database experiments using the Cohn-Kanade, and the SEMAINE databases. The comparison with other state-of-the-art methods shows that the proposed LPQ-TOP method outperforms the other approaches for the problem of AU temporal segment detection, and that overall AU activation detection benefits from dynamic appearance information.

Dynamics of safety performance and culture: a group model building approach.

PubMed

Goh, Yang Miang; Love, Peter E D; Stagbouer, Greg; Annesley, Chris

2012-09-01

The management of occupational health and safety (OHS) including safety culture interventions is comprised of complex problems that are often hard to scope and define. Due to the dynamic nature and complexity of OHS management, the concept of system dynamics (SD) is used to analyze accident prevention. In this paper, a system dynamics group model building (GMB) approach is used to create a causal loop diagram of the underlying factors influencing the OHS performance of a major drilling and mining contractor in Australia. While the organization has invested considerable resources into OHS their disabling injury frequency rate (DIFR) has not been decreasing. With this in mind, rich individualistic knowledge about the dynamics influencing the DIFR was acquired from experienced employees with operations, health and safety and training background using a GMB workshop. Findings derived from the workshop were used to develop a series of causal loop diagrams that includes a wide range of dynamics that can assist in better understanding the causal influences OHS performance. The causal loop diagram provides a tool for organizations to hypothesize the dynamics influencing effectiveness of OHS management, particularly the impact on DIFR. In addition the paper demonstrates that the SD GMB approach has significant potential in understanding and improving OHS management. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamical approach to the cosmological constant.

PubMed

Mukohyama, Shinji; Randall, Lisa

2004-05-28

We consider a dynamical approach to the cosmological constant. There is a scalar field with a potential whose minimum occurs at a generic, but negative, value for the vacuum energy, and it has a nonstandard kinetic term whose coefficient diverges at zero curvature as well as the standard kinetic term. Because of the divergent coefficient of the kinetic term, the lowest energy state is never achieved. Instead, the cosmological constant automatically stalls at or near zero. The merit of this model is that it is stable under radiative corrections and leads to stable dynamics, despite the singular kinetic term. The model is not complete, however, in that some reheating is required. Nonetheless, our approach can at the very least reduce fine-tuning by 60 orders of magnitude or provide a new mechanism for sampling possible cosmological constants and implementing the anthropic principle.

Inverse problems and computational cell metabolic models: a statistical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvetti, D.; Somersalo, E.

2008-07-01

In this article, we give an overview of the Bayesian modelling of metabolic systems at the cellular and subcellular level. The models are based on detailed description of key biochemical reactions occurring in tissue, which may in turn be compartmentalized into cytosol and mitochondria, and of transports between the compartments. The classical deterministic approach which models metabolic systems as dynamical systems with Michaelis-Menten kinetics, is replaced by a stochastic extension where the model parameters are interpreted as random variables with an appropriate probability density. The inverse problem of cell metabolism in this setting consists of estimating the density of the model parameters. After discussing some possible approaches to solving the problem, we address the issue of how to assess the reliability of the predictions of a stochastic model by proposing an output analysis in terms of model uncertainties. Visualization modalities for organizing the large amount of information provided by the Bayesian dynamic sensitivity analysis are also illustrated.

Dynamic physiological modeling for functional diffuse optical tomography

PubMed Central

Diamond, Solomon Gilbert; Huppert, Theodore J.; Kolehmainen, Ville; Franceschini, Maria Angela; Kaipio, Jari P.; Arridge, Simon R.; Boas, David A.

2009-01-01

Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) is a noninvasive imaging technology that is sensitive to local concentration changes in oxy- and deoxyhemoglobin. When applied to functional neuroimaging, DOT measures hemodynamics in the scalp and brain that reflect competing metabolic demands and cardiovascular dynamics. The diffuse nature of near-infrared photon migration in tissue and the multitude of physiological systems that affect hemodynamics motivate the use of anatomical and physiological models to improve estimates of the functional hemodynamic response. In this paper, we present a linear state-space model for DOT analysis that models the physiological fluctuations present in the data with either static or dynamic estimation. We demonstrate the approach by using auxiliary measurements of blood pressure variability and heart rate variability as inputs to model the background physiology in DOT data. We evaluate the improvements accorded by modeling this physiology on ten human subjects with simulated functional hemodynamic responses added to the baseline physiology. Adding physiological modeling with a static estimator significantly improved estimates of the simulated functional response, and further significant improvements were achieved with a dynamic Kalman filter estimator (paired t tests, n = 10, P < 0.05). These results suggest that physiological modeling can improve DOT analysis. The further improvement with the Kalman filter encourages continued research into dynamic linear modeling of the physiology present in DOT. Cardiovascular dynamics also affect the blood-oxygen-dependent (BOLD) signal in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). This state-space approach to DOT analysis could be extended to BOLD fMRI analysis, multimodal studies and real-time analysis. PMID:16242967

Modeling Zone-3 Protection with Generic Relay Models for Dynamic Contingency Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Qiuhua; Vyakaranam, Bharat GNVSR; Diao, Ruisheng

This paper presents a cohesive approach for calculating and coordinating the settings of multiple zone-3 protections for dynamic contingency analysis. The zone-3 protections are represented by generic distance relay models. A two-step approach for determining zone-3 relay settings is proposed. The first step is to calculate settings, particularly, the reach, of each zone-3 relay individually by iteratively running line open-end fault short circuit analysis; the blinder is also employed and properly set to meet the industry standard under extreme loading conditions. The second step is to systematically coordinate the protection settings of the zone-3 relays. The main objective of thismore » coordination step is to address the over-reaching issues. We have developed a tool to automate the proposed approach and generate the settings of all distance relays in a PSS/E dyr format file. The calculated zone-3 settings have been tested on a modified IEEE 300 system using a dynamic contingency analysis tool (DCAT).« less

Modeling Stochastic Complexity in Complex Adaptive Systems: Non-Kolmogorov Probability and the Process Algebra Approach.

PubMed

Sulis, William H

2017-10-01

Walter Freeman III pioneered the application of nonlinear dynamical systems theories and methodologies in his work on mesoscopic brain dynamics.Sadly, mainstream psychology and psychiatry still cling to linear correlation based data analysis techniques, which threaten to subvert the process of experimentation and theory building. In order to progress, it is necessary to develop tools capable of managing the stochastic complexity of complex biopsychosocial systems, which includes multilevel feedback relationships, nonlinear interactions, chaotic dynamics and adaptability. In addition, however, these systems exhibit intrinsic randomness, non-Gaussian probability distributions, non-stationarity, contextuality, and non-Kolmogorov probabilities, as well as the absence of mean and/or variance and conditional probabilities. These properties and their implications for statistical analysis are discussed. An alternative approach, the Process Algebra approach, is described. It is a generative model, capable of generating non-Kolmogorov probabilities. It has proven useful in addressing fundamental problems in quantum mechanics and in the modeling of developing psychosocial systems.

Improved Discretization of Grounding Lines and Calving Fronts using an Embedded-Boundary Approach in BISICLES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, D. F.; Cornford, S. L.; Schwartz, P.; Bhalla, A.; Johansen, H.; Ng, E.

2017-12-01

Correctly representing grounding line and calving-front dynamics is of fundamental importance in modeling marine ice sheets, since the configuration of these interfaces exerts a controlling influence on the dynamics of the ice sheet. Traditional ice sheet models have struggled to correctly represent these regions without very high spatial resolution. We have developed a front-tracking discretization for grounding lines and calving fronts based on the Chombo embedded-boundary cut-cell framework. This promises better representation of these interfaces vs. a traditional stair-step discretization on Cartesian meshes like those currently used in the block-structured AMR BISICLES code. The dynamic adaptivity of the BISICLES model complements the subgrid-scale discretizations of this scheme, producing a robust approach for tracking the evolution of these interfaces. Also, the fundamental discontinuous nature of flow across grounding lines is respected by mathematically treating it as a material phase change. We present examples of this approach to demonstrate its effectiveness.

Galactic evolution. I - Single-zone models. [encompassing stellar evolution and gas-star dynamic theories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thuan, T. X.; Hart, M. H.; Ostriker, J. P.

1975-01-01

The two basic approaches of physical theory required to calculate the evolution of a galactic system are considered, taking into account stellar evolution theory and the dynamics of a gas-star system. Attention is given to intrinsic (stellar) physics, extrinsic (dynamical) physics, and computations concerning the fractionation of an initial mass of gas into stars. The characteristics of a 'standard' model and its variants are discussed along with the results obtained with the aid of these models.

An object-oriented forest landscape model and its representation of tree species

Treesearch

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Joel Boeder

1999-01-01

LANDIS is a forest landscape model that simulates the interaction of large landscape processes and forest successional dynamics at tree species level. We discuss how object-oriented design (OOD) approaches such as modularity, abstraction and encapsulation are integrated into the design of LANDIS. We show that using OOD approaches, model decisions (olden as model...

A dynamical systems model for nuclear power plant risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, Stephen Michael

The recent transition to an open access generation marketplace has forced nuclear plant operators to become much more cost conscious and focused on plant performance. Coincidentally, the regulatory perspective also is in a state of transition from a command and control framework to one that is risk-informed and performance-based. Due to these structural changes in the economics and regulatory system associated with commercial nuclear power plant operation, there is an increased need for plant management to explicitly manage nuclear safety risk. Application of probabilistic risk assessment techniques to model plant hardware has provided a significant contribution to understanding the potential initiating events and equipment failures that can lead to core damage accidents. Application of the lessons learned from these analyses has supported improved plant operation and safety over the previous decade. However, this analytical approach has not been nearly as successful in addressing the impact of plant processes and management effectiveness on the risks of plant operation. Thus, the research described in this dissertation presents a different approach to address this issue. Here we propose a dynamical model that describes the interaction of important plant processes among themselves and their overall impact on nuclear safety risk. We first provide a review of the techniques that are applied in a conventional probabilistic risk assessment of commercially operating nuclear power plants and summarize the typical results obtained. The limitations of the conventional approach and the status of research previously performed to address these limitations also are presented. Next, we present the case for the application of an alternative approach using dynamical systems theory. This includes a discussion of previous applications of dynamical models to study other important socio-economic issues. Next, we review the analytical techniques that are applicable to analysis of these models. Details of the development of the mathematical risk model are presented. This includes discussion of the processes included in the model and the identification of significant interprocess interactions. This is followed by analysis of the model that demonstrates that its dynamical evolution displays characteristics that have been observed at commercially operating plants. The model is analyzed using the previously described techniques from dynamical systems theory. From this analysis, several significant insights are obtained with respect to the effective control of nuclear safety risk. Finally, we present conclusions and recommendations for further research.

Modelling household finances: A Bayesian approach to a multivariate two-part model

PubMed Central

Brown, Sarah; Ghosh, Pulak; Su, Li; Taylor, Karl

2016-01-01

We contribute to the empirical literature on household finances by introducing a Bayesian multivariate two-part model, which has been developed to further our understanding of household finances. Our flexible approach allows for the potential interdependence between the holding of assets and liabilities at the household level and also encompasses a two-part process to allow for differences in the influences on asset or liability holding and on the respective amounts held. Furthermore, the framework is dynamic in order to allow for persistence in household finances over time. Our findings endorse the joint modelling approach and provide evidence supporting the importance of dynamics. In addition, we find that certain independent variables exert different influences on the binary and continuous parts of the model thereby highlighting the flexibility of our framework and revealing a detailed picture of the nature of household finances. PMID:27212801

Sparse polynomial space approach to dissipative quantum systems: application to the sub-ohmic spin-boson model.

PubMed

Alvermann, A; Fehske, H

2009-04-17

We propose a general numerical approach to open quantum systems with a coupling to bath degrees of freedom. The technique combines the methodology of polynomial expansions of spectral functions with the sparse grid concept from interpolation theory. Thereby we construct a Hilbert space of moderate dimension to represent the bath degrees of freedom, which allows us to perform highly accurate and efficient calculations of static, spectral, and dynamic quantities using standard exact diagonalization algorithms. The strength of the approach is demonstrated for the phase transition, critical behavior, and dissipative spin dynamics in the spin-boson model.

A parameters optimization method for planar joint clearance model and its application for dynamics simulation of reciprocating compressor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hai-yang, Zhao; Min-qiang, Xu; Jin-dong, Wang; Yong-bo, Li

2015-05-01

In order to improve the accuracy of dynamics response simulation for mechanism with joint clearance, a parameter optimization method for planar joint clearance contact force model was presented in this paper, and the optimized parameters were applied to the dynamics response simulation for mechanism with oversized joint clearance fault. By studying the effect of increased clearance on the parameters of joint clearance contact force model, the relation of model parameters between different clearances was concluded. Then the dynamic equation of a two-stage reciprocating compressor with four joint clearances was developed using Lagrange method, and a multi-body dynamic model built in ADAMS software was used to solve this equation. To obtain a simulated dynamic response much closer to that of experimental tests, the parameters of joint clearance model, instead of using the designed values, were optimized by genetic algorithms approach. Finally, the optimized parameters were applied to simulate the dynamics response of model with oversized joint clearance fault according to the concluded parameter relation. The dynamics response of experimental test verified the effectiveness of this application.

Broad consent versus dynamic consent in biobank research: Is passive participation an ethical problem?

PubMed Central

Steinsbekk, Kristin Solum; Kåre Myskja, Bjørn; Solberg, Berge

2013-01-01

In the endeavour of biobank research there is dispute concerning what type of consent and which form of donor–biobank relationship meet high ethical standards. Up until now, a ‘broad consent' model has been used in many present-day biobank projects. However it has been, by some scholars, deemed as a pragmatic, and not an acceptable ethical solution. Calls for change have been made on the basis of avoidance of paternalism, intentions to fulfil the principle of autonomy, wish for increased user participation, a questioning of the role of experts and ideas advocating reduction of top–down governance. Recently, an approach termed ‘dynamic consent' has been proposed to meet such challenges. Dynamic consent uses modern communication strategies to inform, involve, offer choices and last but not the least obtain consent for every research projects based on biobank resources. At first glance dynamic consent seems appealing, and we have identified six claims of superiority of this model; claims pertaining to autonomy, information, increased engagement, control, social robustness and reciprocity. However, after closer examination, there seems to be several weaknesses with a dynamic consent approach; among others the risk of inviting people into the therapeutic misconception as well as individualizing the ethical review of research projects. When comparing the two models, broad consent still holds and can be deemed a good ethical solution for longitudinal biobank research. Nevertheless, there is potential for improvement in the broad model, and criticism can be met by adapting some of the modern communication strategies proposed in the dynamic consent approach. PMID:23299918

Crowd computing: using competitive dynamics to develop and refine highly predictive models.

PubMed

Bentzien, Jörg; Muegge, Ingo; Hamner, Ben; Thompson, David C

2013-05-01

A recent application of a crowd computing platform to develop highly predictive in silico models for use in the drug discovery process is described. The platform, Kaggle™, exploits a competitive dynamic that results in model optimization as the competition unfolds. Here, this dynamic is described in detail and compared with more-conventional modeling strategies. The complete and full structure of the underlying dataset is disclosed and some thoughts as to the broader utility of such 'gamification' approaches to the field of modeling are offered. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors influencing crime rates: an econometric analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bothos, John M. A.; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

2016-05-01

The scope of the present study is to research the dynamics that determine the commission of crimes in the US society. Our study is part of a model we are developing to understand urban crime dynamics and to enhance citizens' "perception of security" in large urban environments. The main targets of our research are to highlight dependence of crime rates on certain social and economic factors and basic elements of state anticrime policies. In conducting our research, we use as guides previous relevant studies on crime dependence, that have been performed with similar quantitative analyses in mind, regarding the dependence of crime on certain social and economic factors using statistics and econometric modelling. Our first approach consists of conceptual state space dynamic cross-sectional econometric models that incorporate a feedback loop that describes crime as a feedback process. In order to define dynamically the model variables, we use statistical analysis on crime records and on records about social and economic conditions and policing characteristics (like police force and policing results - crime arrests), to determine their influence as independent variables on crime, as the dependent variable of our model. The econometric models we apply in this first approach are an exponential log linear model and a logit model. In a second approach, we try to study the evolvement of violent crime through time in the US, independently as an autonomous social phenomenon, using autoregressive and moving average time-series econometric models. Our findings show that there are certain social and economic characteristics that affect the formation of crime rates in the US, either positively or negatively. Furthermore, the results of our time-series econometric modelling show that violent crime, viewed solely and independently as a social phenomenon, correlates with previous years crime rates and depends on the social and economic environment's conditions during previous years.

Use of measurement theory for operationalization and quantification of psychological constructs in systems dynamics modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitkov-Norris, Elena; Yeghiazarian, Ara

2016-11-01

The analytical tools available to social scientists have traditionally been adapted from tools originally designed for analysis of natural science phenomena. This article discusses the applicability of systems dynamics - a qualitative based modelling approach, as a possible analysis and simulation tool that bridges the gap between social and natural sciences. After a brief overview of the systems dynamics modelling methodology, the advantages as well as limiting factors of systems dynamics to the potential applications in the field of social sciences and human interactions are discussed. The issues arise with regards to operationalization and quantification of latent constructs at the simulation building stage of the systems dynamics methodology and measurement theory is proposed as a ready and waiting solution to the problem of dynamic model calibration, with a view of improving simulation model reliability and validity and encouraging the development of standardised, modular system dynamics models that can be used in social science research.

Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrilov, Andrey; Seleznev, Aleksei; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander; Kurths, Juergen

2018-05-01

A new data-driven model for analysis and prediction of spatially distributed time series is proposed. The model is based on a linear dynamical mode (LDM) decomposition of the observed data which is derived from a recently developed nonlinear dimensionality reduction approach. The key point of this approach is its ability to take into account simple dynamical properties of the observed system by means of revealing the system's dominant time scales. The LDMs are used as new variables for empirical construction of a nonlinear stochastic evolution operator. The method is applied to the sea surface temperature anomaly field in the tropical belt where the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode of variability. The advantage of LDMs versus traditionally used empirical orthogonal function decomposition is demonstrated for this data. Specifically, it is shown that the new model has a competitive ENSO forecast skill in comparison with the other existing ENSO models.

Saddles and dynamics in a solvable mean-field model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angelani, L.; Ruocco, G.; Zamponi, F.

2003-05-01

We use the saddle-approach, recently introduced in the numerical investigation of simple model liquids, in the analysis of a mean-field solvable system. The investigated system is the k-trigonometric model, a k-body interaction mean field system, that generalizes the trigonometric model introduced by Madan and Keyes [J. Chem. Phys. 98, 3342 (1993)] and that has been recently introduced to investigate the relationship between thermodynamics and topology of the configuration space. We find a close relationship between the properties of saddles (stationary points of the potential energy surface) visited by the system and the dynamics. In particular the temperature dependence of saddle order follows that of the diffusivity, both having an Arrhenius behavior at low temperature and a similar shape in the whole temperature range. Our results confirm the general usefulness of the saddle-approach in the interpretation of dynamical processes taking place in interacting systems.

Towards a self-consistent dynamical nuclear model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roca-Maza, X.; Niu, Y. F.; Colò, G.; Bortignon, P. F.

2017-04-01

Density functional theory (DFT) is a powerful and accurate tool, exploited in nuclear physics to investigate the ground-state and some of the collective properties of nuclei along the whole nuclear chart. Models based on DFT are not, however, suitable for the description of single-particle dynamics in nuclei. Following the field theoretical approach by A Bohr and B R Mottelson to describe nuclear interactions between single-particle and vibrational degrees of freedom, we have taken important steps towards the building of a microscopic dynamic nuclear model. In connection with this, one important issue that needs to be better understood is the renormalization of the effective interaction in the particle-vibration approach. One possible way to renormalize the interaction is by the so-called subtraction method. In this contribution, we will implement the subtraction method in our model for the first time and study its consequences.

Modeling structural change in spatial system dynamics: A Daisyworld example.

PubMed

Neuwirth, C; Peck, A; Simonović, S P

2015-03-01

System dynamics (SD) is an effective approach for helping reveal the temporal behavior of complex systems. Although there have been recent developments in expanding SD to include systems' spatial dependencies, most applications have been restricted to the simulation of diffusion processes; this is especially true for models on structural change (e.g. LULC modeling). To address this shortcoming, a Python program is proposed to tightly couple SD software to a Geographic Information System (GIS). The approach provides the required capacities for handling bidirectional and synchronized interactions of operations between SD and GIS. In order to illustrate the concept and the techniques proposed for simulating structural changes, a fictitious environment called Daisyworld has been recreated in a spatial system dynamics (SSD) environment. The comparison of spatial and non-spatial simulations emphasizes the importance of considering spatio-temporal feedbacks. Finally, practical applications of structural change models in agriculture and disaster management are proposed.

Ionic transport in high-energy-density matter

DOE PAGES

Stanton, Liam G.; Murillo, Michael S.

2016-04-08

Ionic transport coefficients for dense plasmas have been numerically computed using an effective Boltzmann approach. Here, we developed a simplified effective potential approach that yields accurate fits for all of the relevant cross sections and collision integrals. These results have been validated with molecular-dynamics simulations for self-diffusion, interdiffusion, viscosity, and thermal conductivity. Molecular dynamics has also been used to examine the underlying assumptions of the Boltzmann approach through a categorization of behaviors of the velocity autocorrelation function in the Yukawa phase diagram. By using a velocity-dependent screening model, we examine the role of dynamical screening in transport. Implications of thesemore » results for Coulomb logarithm approaches are discussed.« less

Statistical processing of large image sequences.

PubMed

Khellah, F; Fieguth, P; Murray, M J; Allen, M

2005-01-01

The dynamic estimation of large-scale stochastic image sequences, as frequently encountered in remote sensing, is important in a variety of scientific applications. However, the size of such images makes conventional dynamic estimation methods, for example, the Kalman and related filters, impractical. In this paper, we present an approach that emulates the Kalman filter, but with considerably reduced computational and storage requirements. Our approach is illustrated in the context of a 512 x 512 image sequence of ocean surface temperature. The static estimation step, the primary contribution here, uses a mixture of stationary models to accurately mimic the effect of a nonstationary prior, simplifying both computational complexity and modeling. Our approach provides an efficient, stable, positive-definite model which is consistent with the given correlation structure. Thus, the methods of this paper may find application in modeling and single-frame estimation.

Proton exchange membrane fuel cell model for aging predictions: Simulated equivalent active surface area loss and comparisons with durability tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robin, C.; Gérard, M.; Quinaud, M.; d'Arbigny, J.; Bultel, Y.

2016-09-01

The prediction of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) lifetime is one of the major challenges to optimize both material properties and dynamic control of the fuel cell system. In this study, by a multiscale modeling approach, a mechanistic catalyst dissolution model is coupled to a dynamic PEMFC cell model to predict the performance loss of the PEMFC. Results are compared to two 2000-h experimental aging tests. More precisely, an original approach is introduced to estimate the loss of an equivalent active surface area during an aging test. Indeed, when the computed Electrochemical Catalyst Surface Area profile is fitted on the experimental measures from Cyclic Voltammetry, the computed performance loss of the PEMFC is underestimated. To be able to predict the performance loss measured by polarization curves during the aging test, an equivalent active surface area is obtained by a model inversion. This methodology enables to successfully find back the experimental cell voltage decay during time. The model parameters are fitted from the polarization curves so that they include the global degradation. Moreover, the model captures the aging heterogeneities along the surface of the cell observed experimentally. Finally, a second 2000-h durability test in dynamic operating conditions validates the approach.

Predictability and Coupled Dynamics of MJO During DYNAMO

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Predictability and Coupled Dynamics of MJO During DYNAMO ...Model (LIM) for MJO predictions and apply it in retrospective cross-validated forecast mode to the DYNAMO time period. APPROACH We are working as...a team to study MJO dynamics and predictability using several models as team members of the ONR DRI associated with the DYNAMO experiment. This is a

Accounting for Space—Quantification of Cell-To-Cell Transmission Kinetics Using Virus Dynamics Models.

PubMed

Kumberger, Peter; Durso-Cain, Karina; Uprichard, Susan L; Dahari, Harel; Graw, Frederik

2018-04-17

Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) that describe the population dynamics of viruses and infected cells have been an essential tool to characterize and quantify viral infection dynamics. Although an important aspect of viral infection is the dynamics of viral spread, which includes transmission by cell-free virions and direct cell-to-cell transmission, models used so far ignored cell-to-cell transmission completely, or accounted for this process by simple mass-action kinetics between infected and uninfected cells. In this study, we show that the simple mass-action approach falls short when describing viral spread in a spatially-defined environment. Using simulated data, we present a model extension that allows correct quantification of cell-to-cell transmission dynamics within a monolayer of cells. By considering the decreasing proportion of cells that can contribute to cell-to-cell spread with progressing infection, our extension accounts for the transmission dynamics on a single cell level while still remaining applicable to standard population-based experimental measurements. While the ability to infer the proportion of cells infected by either of the transmission modes depends on the viral diffusion rate, the improved estimates obtained using our novel approach emphasize the need to correctly account for spatial aspects when analyzing viral spread.

An investigation of emotion dynamics in major depressive disorder patients and healthy persons using sparse longitudinal networks.

PubMed

de Vos, Stijn; Wardenaar, Klaas J; Bos, Elisabeth H; Wit, Ernst C; Bouwmans, Mara E J; de Jonge, Peter

2017-01-01

Differences in within-person emotion dynamics may be an important source of heterogeneity in depression. To investigate these dynamics, researchers have previously combined multilevel regression analyses with network representations. However, sparse network methods, specifically developed for longitudinal network analyses, have not been applied. Therefore, this study used this approach to investigate population-level and individual-level emotion dynamics in healthy and depressed persons and compared this method with the multilevel approach. Time-series data were collected in pair-matched healthy persons and major depressive disorder (MDD) patients (n = 54). Seven positive affect (PA) and seven negative affect (NA) items were administered electronically at 90 times (30 days; thrice per day). The population-level (healthy vs. MDD) and individual-level time series were analyzed using a sparse longitudinal network model based on vector autoregression. The population-level model was also estimated with a multilevel approach. Effects of different preprocessing steps were evaluated as well. The characteristics of the longitudinal networks were investigated to gain insight into the emotion dynamics. In the population-level networks, longitudinal network connectivity was strongest in the healthy group, with nodes showing more and stronger longitudinal associations with each other. Individually estimated networks varied strongly across individuals. Individual variations in network connectivity were unrelated to baseline characteristics (depression status, neuroticism, severity). A multilevel approach applied to the same data showed higher connectivity in the MDD group, which seemed partly related to the preprocessing approach. The sparse network approach can be useful for the estimation of networks with multiple nodes, where overparameterization is an issue, and for individual-level networks. However, its current inability to model random effects makes it less useful as a population-level approach in case of large heterogeneity. Different preprocessing strategies appeared to strongly influence the results, complicating inferences about network density.

Extended-Range Prediction with Low-Dimensional, Stochastic-Dynamic Models: A Data-driven Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

characterization of extratropical storms and extremes and link these to LFV modes. Mingfang Ting, Yochanan Kushnir, Andrew W. Robertson...simulating and predicting a wide range of climate phenomena including ENSO, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), storm track variability...into empirical prediction models. Use observations to improve low-order dynamical MJO models. Adam Sobel, Daehyun Kim. Extratropical variability

Evaluation of Student Models on Current Socio-Scientific Topics Based on System Dynamics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nuhoglu, Hasret

2014-01-01

This study aims to 1) enable primary school students to develop models that will help them understand and analyze a system, through a learning process based on system dynamics approach, 2) examine and evaluate students' models related to socio-scientific issues using certain criteria. The research method used is a case study. The study sample…

Dynamic deformation of soft soil media: Experimental studies and mathematical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balandin, V. V.; Bragov, A. M.; Igumnov, L. A.; Konstantinov, A. Yu.; Kotov, V. L.; Lomunov, A. K.

2015-05-01

A complex experimental-theoretical approach to studying the problem of high-rate strain of soft soil media is presented. This approach combines the following contemporary methods of dynamical tests: the modified Hopkinson-Kolsky method applied tomedium specimens contained in holders and the method of plane wave shock experiments. The following dynamic characteristics of sand soils are obtained: shock adiabatic curves, bulk compressibility curves, and shear resistance curves. The obtained experimental data are used to study the high-rate strain process in the system of a split pressure bar, and the constitutive relations of Grigoryan's mathematical model of soft soil medium are verified by comparing the results of computational and natural test experiments of impact and penetration.

a Statistical Dynamic Approach to Structural Evolution of Complex Capital Market Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Xiao; Chai, Li H.

As an important part of modern financial systems, capital market has played a crucial role on diverse social resource allocations and economical exchanges. Beyond traditional models and/or theories based on neoclassical economics, considering capital markets as typical complex open systems, this paper attempts to develop a new approach to overcome some shortcomings of the available researches. By defining the generalized entropy of capital market systems, a theoretical model and nonlinear dynamic equation on the operations of capital market are proposed from statistical dynamic perspectives. The US security market from 1995 to 2001 is then simulated and analyzed as a typical case. Some instructive results are discussed and summarized.

An Approach for Dynamic Optimization of Prevention Program Implementation in Stochastic Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Yuncheol; Prabhu, Vittal

The science of preventing youth problems has significantly advanced in developing evidence-based prevention program (EBP) by using randomized clinical trials. Effective EBP can reduce delinquency, aggression, violence, bullying and substance abuse among youth. Unfortunately the outcomes of EBP implemented in natural settings usually tend to be lower than in clinical trials, which has motivated the need to study EBP implementations. In this paper we propose to model EBP implementations in natural settings as stochastic dynamic processes. Specifically, we propose Markov Decision Process (MDP) for modeling and dynamic optimization of such EBP implementations. We illustrate these concepts using simple numerical examples and discuss potential challenges in using such approaches in practice.

Application of snakes and dynamic programming optimisation technique in modeling of buildings in informal settlement areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rüther, Heinz; Martine, Hagai M.; Mtalo, E. G.

This paper presents a novel approach to semiautomatic building extraction in informal settlement areas from aerial photographs. The proposed approach uses a strategy of delineating buildings by optimising their approximate building contour position. Approximate building contours are derived automatically by locating elevation blobs in digital surface models. Building extraction is then effected by means of the snakes algorithm and the dynamic programming optimisation technique. With dynamic programming, the building contour optimisation problem is realized through a discrete multistage process and solved by the "time-delayed" algorithm, as developed in this work. The proposed building extraction approach is a semiautomatic process, with user-controlled operations linking fully automated subprocesses. Inputs into the proposed building extraction system are ortho-images and digital surface models, the latter being generated through image matching techniques. Buildings are modeled as "lumps" or elevation blobs in digital surface models, which are derived by altimetric thresholding of digital surface models. Initial windows for building extraction are provided by projecting the elevation blobs centre points onto an ortho-image. In the next step, approximate building contours are extracted from the ortho-image by region growing constrained by edges. Approximate building contours thus derived are inputs into the dynamic programming optimisation process in which final building contours are established. The proposed system is tested on two study areas: Marconi Beam in Cape Town, South Africa, and Manzese in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Sixty percent of buildings in the study areas have been extracted and verified and it is concluded that the proposed approach contributes meaningfully to the extraction of buildings in moderately complex and crowded informal settlement areas.

Neurobiologically Inspired Approaches to Nonlinear Process Control and Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-12-31

incorporates second messenger reaction kinetics and calcium dynamics to represent the nonlinear dynamics and the crucial role of neuromodulation in local...reflex). The dynamic neuromodulation as a mechanism for the nonlinear attenuation is the novel result of this study. Ear- lier simulations have shown

Dynamism in Electronic Performance Support Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laffey, James

1995-01-01

Describes a model for dynamic electronic performance support systems based on NNAble, a system developed by the training group at Apple Computer. Principles for designing dynamic performance support are discussed, including a systems approach, performer-centered design, awareness of situated cognition, organizational memory, and technology use.…

Integration of car-body flexibility into train-track coupling system dynamics analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling, Liang; Zhang, Qing; Xiao, Xinbiao; Wen, Zefeng; Jin, Xuesong

2018-04-01

The resonance vibration of flexible car-bodies greatly affects the dynamics performances of high-speed trains. In this paper, we report a three-dimensional train-track model to capture the flexible vibration features of high-speed train carriages based on the flexible multi-body dynamics approach. The flexible car-body is modelled using both the finite element method (FEM) and the multi-body dynamics (MBD) approach, in which the rigid motions are obtained by using the MBD theory and the structure deformation is calculated by the FEM and the modal superposition method. The proposed model is applied to investigate the influence of the flexible vibration of car-bodies on the dynamics performances of train-track systems. The dynamics performances of a high-speed train running on a slab track, including the car-body vibration behaviour, the ride comfort, and the running safety, calculated by the numerical models with rigid and flexible car-bodies are compared in detail. The results show that the car-body flexibility not only significantly affects the vibration behaviour and ride comfort of rail carriages, but also can has an important influence on the running safety of trains. The rigid car-body model underestimates the vibration level and ride comfort of rail vehicles, and ignoring carriage torsional flexibility in the curving safety evaluation of trains is conservative.

Structure and Dynamics of Solvent Landscapes in Charge-Transfer Reactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leite, Vitor B. Pereira

The dynamics of solvent polarization plays a major role in the control of charge transfer reactions. The success of Marcus theory describing the solvent influence via a single collective quadratic polarization coordinate has been remarkable. Onuchic and Wolynes have recently proposed (J. Chem Phys 98 (3) 2218, 1993) a simple model demonstrating how a many-dimensional-complex model composed by several dipole moments (representing solvent molecules or polar groups in proteins) can be reduced under the appropriate limits into the Marcus Model. This work presents a dynamical study of the same model, which is characterized by two parameters, an average dipole-dipole interaction as a term associated with the potential energy landscape roughness. It is shown why the effective potential, obtained using a thermodynamic approach, is appropriate for the dynamics of the system. At high temperatures, the system exhibits effective diffusive one-dimensional dynamics, where the Born-Marcus limit is recovered. At low temperatures, a glassy phase appears with a slow non-self-averaging dynamics. At intermediate temperatures, the concept of equivalent diffusion paths and polarization dependence effects are discussed. This approach is extended to treat more realistic solvent models. Real solvents are discussed in terms of simple parameters described above, and an analysis of how different regimes affect the rate of charge transfer is presented. Finally, these ideas are correlated to analogous problems in other areas.

Modeling and Density Estimation of an Urban Freeway Network Based on Dynamic Graph Hybrid Automata

PubMed Central

Chen, Yangzhou; Guo, Yuqi; Wang, Ying

2017-01-01

In this paper, in order to describe complex network systems, we firstly propose a general modeling framework by combining a dynamic graph with hybrid automata and thus name it Dynamic Graph Hybrid Automata (DGHA). Then we apply this framework to model traffic flow over an urban freeway network by embedding the Cell Transmission Model (CTM) into the DGHA. With a modeling procedure, we adopt a dual digraph of road network structure to describe the road topology, use linear hybrid automata to describe multi-modes of dynamic densities in road segments and transform the nonlinear expressions of the transmitted traffic flow between two road segments into piecewise linear functions in terms of multi-mode switchings. This modeling procedure is modularized and rule-based, and thus is easily-extensible with the help of a combination algorithm for the dynamics of traffic flow. It can describe the dynamics of traffic flow over an urban freeway network with arbitrary topology structures and sizes. Next we analyze mode types and number in the model of the whole freeway network, and deduce a Piecewise Affine Linear System (PWALS) model. Furthermore, based on the PWALS model, a multi-mode switched state observer is designed to estimate the traffic densities of the freeway network, where a set of observer gain matrices are computed by using the Lyapunov function approach. As an example, we utilize the PWALS model and the corresponding switched state observer to traffic flow over Beijing third ring road. In order to clearly interpret the principle of the proposed method and avoid computational complexity, we adopt a simplified version of Beijing third ring road. Practical application for a large-scale road network will be implemented by decentralized modeling approach and distributed observer designing in the future research. PMID:28353664

Modeling and Density Estimation of an Urban Freeway Network Based on Dynamic Graph Hybrid Automata.

PubMed

Chen, Yangzhou; Guo, Yuqi; Wang, Ying

2017-03-29

In this paper, in order to describe complex network systems, we firstly propose a general modeling framework by combining a dynamic graph with hybrid automata and thus name it Dynamic Graph Hybrid Automata (DGHA). Then we apply this framework to model traffic flow over an urban freeway network by embedding the Cell Transmission Model (CTM) into the DGHA. With a modeling procedure, we adopt a dual digraph of road network structure to describe the road topology, use linear hybrid automata to describe multi-modes of dynamic densities in road segments and transform the nonlinear expressions of the transmitted traffic flow between two road segments into piecewise linear functions in terms of multi-mode switchings. This modeling procedure is modularized and rule-based, and thus is easily-extensible with the help of a combination algorithm for the dynamics of traffic flow. It can describe the dynamics of traffic flow over an urban freeway network with arbitrary topology structures and sizes. Next we analyze mode types and number in the model of the whole freeway network, and deduce a Piecewise Affine Linear System (PWALS) model. Furthermore, based on the PWALS model, a multi-mode switched state observer is designed to estimate the traffic densities of the freeway network, where a set of observer gain matrices are computed by using the Lyapunov function approach. As an example, we utilize the PWALS model and the corresponding switched state observer to traffic flow over Beijing third ring road. In order to clearly interpret the principle of the proposed method and avoid computational complexity, we adopt a simplified version of Beijing third ring road. Practical application for a large-scale road network will be implemented by decentralized modeling approach and distributed observer designing in the future research.

Universality in survivor distributions: Characterizing the winners of competitive dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luck, J. M.; Mehta, A.

2015-11-01

We investigate the survivor distributions of a spatially extended model of competitive dynamics in different geometries. The model consists of a deterministic dynamical system of individual agents at specified nodes, which might or might not survive the predatory dynamics: all stochasticity is brought in by the initial state. Every such initial state leads to a unique and extended pattern of survivors and nonsurvivors, which is known as an attractor of the dynamics. We show that the number of such attractors grows exponentially with system size, so that their exact characterization is limited to only very small systems. Given this, we construct an analytical approach based on inhomogeneous mean-field theory to calculate survival probabilities for arbitrary networks. This powerful (albeit approximate) approach shows how universality arises in survivor distributions via a key concept—the dynamical fugacity. Remarkably, in the large-mass limit, the survivor probability of a node becomes independent of network geometry and assumes a simple form which depends only on its mass and degree.

Approaches for evaluating the effects of bivalve filter feeding on nutrient dynamics in Puget Sound, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konrad, Christopher P.

2014-01-01

Marine bivalves such as clams, mussels, and oysters are an important component of the food web, which influence nutrient dynamics and water quality in many estuaries. The role of bivalves in nutrient dynamics and, particularly, the contribution of commercial shellfish activities, are not well understood in Puget Sound, Washington. Numerous approaches have been used in other estuaries to quantify the effects of bivalves on nutrient dynamics, ranging from simple nutrient budgeting to sophisticated numerical models that account for tidal circulation, bioenergetic fluxes through food webs, and biochemical transformations in the water column and sediment. For nutrient management in Puget Sound, it might be possible to integrate basic biophysical indicators (residence time, phytoplankton growth rates, and clearance rates of filter feeders) as a screening tool to identify places where nutrient dynamics and water quality are likely to be sensitive to shellfish density and, then, apply more sophisticated methods involving in-situ measurements and simulation models to quantify those dynamics.

Longitudinal magnetization dynamics in Heisenberg magnets: Spin Green functions approach (Review Article)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krivoruchko, V. N.

2017-11-01

In spite of the fact that dynamical properties of magnets have been extensively studied over the past years, the longitudinal magnetization dynamics is still much less understood than transverse one even in the equilibrium state of a system. In this paper, we give a review of existing, based on quantum-mechanical approach, theoretical descriptions of the longitudinal magnetization dynamics for ferro-, ferri- and antiferromagnetic dielectrics. The aim is to reveal specific features of this type of magnetization vibrations under description a system within the framework of one of the basic model theory of magnetism—the Heisenberg model. Related experimental investigations as well as open questions are also briefly discussed. We hope that understanding of the longitudinal magnetization dynamics distinctive features in the equilibrium state have to be a reference point for a theory uncovering the physical mechanisms that govern ultrafast spin dynamics after femtosecond laser pulse demagnetization when a system is far beyond an equilibrium state.

High-Fidelity Dynamic Modeling of Spacecraft in the Continuum--Rarefied Transition Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turansky, Craig P.

The state of the art of spacecraft rarefied aerodynamics seldom accounts for detailed rigid-body dynamics. In part because of computational constraints, simpler models based upon the ballistic and drag coefficients are employed. Of particular interest is the continuum-rarefied transition regime of Earth's thermosphere where gas dynamic simulation is difficult yet wherein many spacecraft operate. The feasibility of increasing the fidelity of modeling spacecraft dynamics is explored by coupling rarefied aerodynamics with rigid-body dynamics modeling similar to that traditionally used for aircraft in atmospheric flight. Presented is a framework of analysis and guiding principles which capitalize on the availability of increasing computational methods and resources. Aerodynamic force inputs for modeling spacecraft in two dimensions in a rarefied flow are provided by analytical equations in the free-molecular regime, and the direct simulation Monte Carlo method in the transition regime. The application of the direct simulation Monte Carlo method to this class of problems is examined in detail with a new code specifically designed for engineering-level rarefied aerodynamic analysis. Time-accurate simulations of two distinct geometries in low thermospheric flight and atmospheric entry are performed, demonstrating non-linear dynamics that cannot be predicted using simpler approaches. The results of this straightforward approach to the aero-orbital coupled-field problem highlight the possibilities for future improvements in drag prediction, control system design, and atmospheric science. Furthermore, a number of challenges for future work are identified in the hope of stimulating the development of a new subfield of spacecraft dynamics.

ESTIMATION OF CONSTANT AND TIME-VARYING DYNAMIC PARAMETERS OF HIV INFECTION IN A NONLINEAR DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION MODEL.

PubMed

Liang, Hua; Miao, Hongyu; Wu, Hulin

2010-03-01

Modeling viral dynamics in HIV/AIDS studies has resulted in deep understanding of pathogenesis of HIV infection from which novel antiviral treatment guidance and strategies have been derived. Viral dynamics models based on nonlinear differential equations have been proposed and well developed over the past few decades. However, it is quite challenging to use experimental or clinical data to estimate the unknown parameters (both constant and time-varying parameters) in complex nonlinear differential equation models. Therefore, investigators usually fix some parameter values, from the literature or by experience, to obtain only parameter estimates of interest from clinical or experimental data. However, when such prior information is not available, it is desirable to determine all the parameter estimates from data. In this paper, we intend to combine the newly developed approaches, a multi-stage smoothing-based (MSSB) method and the spline-enhanced nonlinear least squares (SNLS) approach, to estimate all HIV viral dynamic parameters in a nonlinear differential equation model. In particular, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to propose a comparatively thorough procedure, accounting for both efficiency and accuracy, to rigorously estimate all key kinetic parameters in a nonlinear differential equation model of HIV dynamics from clinical data. These parameters include the proliferation rate and death rate of uninfected HIV-targeted cells, the average number of virions produced by an infected cell, and the infection rate which is related to the antiviral treatment effect and is time-varying. To validate the estimation methods, we verified the identifiability of the HIV viral dynamic model and performed simulation studies. We applied the proposed techniques to estimate the key HIV viral dynamic parameters for two individual AIDS patients treated with antiretroviral therapies. We demonstrate that HIV viral dynamics can be well characterized and quantified for individual patients. As a result, personalized treatment decision based on viral dynamic models is possible.

Coarse-Grained Descriptions of Dynamics for Networks with Both Intrinsic and Structural Heterogeneities

PubMed Central

Bertalan, Tom; Wu, Yan; Laing, Carlo; Gear, C. William; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.

2017-01-01

Finding accurate reduced descriptions for large, complex, dynamically evolving networks is a crucial enabler to their simulation, analysis, and ultimately design. Here, we propose and illustrate a systematic and powerful approach to obtaining good collective coarse-grained observables—variables successfully summarizing the detailed state of such networks. Finding such variables can naturally lead to successful reduced dynamic models for the networks. The main premise enabling our approach is the assumption that the behavior of a node in the network depends (after a short initial transient) on the node identity: a set of descriptors that quantify the node properties, whether intrinsic (e.g., parameters in the node evolution equations) or structural (imparted to the node by its connectivity in the particular network structure). The approach creates a natural link with modeling and “computational enabling technology” developed in the context of Uncertainty Quantification. In our case, however, we will not focus on ensembles of different realizations of a problem, each with parameters randomly selected from a distribution. We will instead study many coupled heterogeneous units, each characterized by randomly assigned (heterogeneous) parameter value(s). One could then coin the term Heterogeneity Quantification for this approach, which we illustrate through a model dynamic network consisting of coupled oscillators with one intrinsic heterogeneity (oscillator individual frequency) and one structural heterogeneity (oscillator degree in the undirected network). The computational implementation of the approach, its shortcomings and possible extensions are also discussed. PMID:28659781

A Research Roadmap for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boring, Ronald; Mandelli, Diego; Joe, Jeffrey

2015-08-01

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring research through the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to extend the life of the currently operating fleet of commercial nuclear power plants. The Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) research pathway within LWRS looks at ways to maintain and improve the safety margins of these plants. The RISMC pathway includes significant developments in the area of thermalhydraulics code modeling and the development of tools to facilitate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). PRA is primarily concerned with the risk of hardware systems at the plant; yet, hardware reliability is oftenmore » secondary in overall risk significance to human errors that can trigger or compound undesirable events at the plant. This report highlights ongoing efforts to develop a computation-based approach to human reliability analysis (HRA). This computation-based approach differs from existing static and dynamic HRA approaches in that it: (i) interfaces with a dynamic computation engine that includes a full scope plant model, and (ii) interfaces with a PRA software toolset. The computation-based HRA approach presented in this report is called the Human Unimodels for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) and incorporates in a hybrid fashion elements of existing HRA methods to interface with new computational tools developed under the RISMC pathway. The goal of this research effort is to model human performance more accurately than existing approaches, thereby minimizing modeling uncertainty found in current plant risk models.« less

Mathematical Modeling of the Dynamics of Salmonella Cerro Infection in a US Dairy Herd

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapagain, Prem; van Kessel, Jo Ann; Karns, Jeffrey; Wolfgang, David; Schukken, Ynte; Grohn, Yrjo

2006-03-01

Salmonellosis has been one of the major causes of human foodborne illness in the US. The high prevalence of infections makes transmission dynamics of Salmonella in a farm environment of interest both from animal and human health perspectives. Mathematical modeling approaches are increasingly being applied to understand the dynamics of various infectious diseases in dairy herds. Here, we describe the transmission dynamics of Salmonella infection in a dairy herd with a set of non-linear differential equations. Although the infection dynamics of different serotypes of Salmonella in cattle are likely to be different, we find that a relatively simple SIR-type model can describe the observed dynamics of the Salmonella enterica serotype Cerro infection in the herd.

Accelerated molecular dynamics and protein conformational change: a theoretical and practical guide using a membrane embedded model neurotransmitter transporter.

PubMed

Gedeon, Patrick C; Thomas, James R; Madura, Jeffry D

2015-01-01

Molecular dynamics simulation provides a powerful and accurate method to model protein conformational change, yet timescale limitations often prevent direct assessment of the kinetic properties of interest. A large number of molecular dynamic steps are necessary for rare events to occur, which allow a system to overcome energy barriers and conformationally transition from one potential energy minimum to another. For many proteins, the energy landscape is further complicated by a multitude of potential energy wells, each separated by high free-energy barriers and each potentially representative of a functionally important protein conformation. To overcome these obstacles, accelerated molecular dynamics utilizes a robust bias potential function to simulate the transition between different potential energy minima. This straightforward approach more efficiently samples conformational space in comparison to classical molecular dynamics simulation, does not require advanced knowledge of the potential energy landscape and converges to the proper canonical distribution. Here, we review the theory behind accelerated molecular dynamics and discuss the approach in the context of modeling protein conformational change. As a practical example, we provide a detailed, step-by-step explanation of how to perform an accelerated molecular dynamics simulation using a model neurotransmitter transporter embedded in a lipid cell membrane. Changes in protein conformation of relevance to the substrate transport cycle are then examined using principle component analysis.

Predicting dynamics and rheology of blood flow: A comparative study of multiscale and low-dimensional models of red blood cells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pan, Wenxiao; Fedosov, Dmitry A.; Caswell, Bruce

In this work we compare the predictive capability of two mathematical models for red blood cells (RBCs) focusing on blood flow in capillaries and arterioles. Both RBC models as well as their corresponding blood flows are based on the dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) method, a coarse-grained molecular dynamics approach. The first model employs a multiscale description of the RBC (MS-RBC), with its membrane represented by hundreds or even thousands of DPD-particles connected by springs into a triangular network in combination with out-of-plane elastic bending resistance. Extra dissipation within the network accounts for membrane viscosity, while the characteristic biconcave RBC shapemore » is achieved by imposition of constraints for constant membrane area and constant cell volume. The second model is based on a low-dimensional description (LD-RBC) constructed as a closed torus-like ring of only 10 large DPD colloidal particles. They are connected into a ring by worm-like chain (WLC) springs combined with bending resistance. The LD-RBC model can be fitted to represent the entire range of nonlinear elastic deformations as measured by optical-tweezers for healthy and for infected RBCs in malaria. MS-RBCs suspensions model the dynamics and rheology of blood flow accurately for any size vessel but this approach is computationally expensive above 100 microns. Surprisingly, the much more economical suspensions of LD-RBCs also capture the blood flow dynamics and rheology accurately except for vessels with sizes comparable to RBC diameter. In particular, the LD-RBC suspensions are shown to properly capture the experimental data for the apparent viscosity of blood and its cell-free layer (CFL) in tube flow. Taken together, these findings suggest a hierarchical approach in modeling blood flow in the arterial tree, whereby the MS-RBC model should be employed for capillaries and arterioles below 100 microns, the LD-RBC model for arterioles, and the continuum description for arteries.« less

Sparse Additive Ordinary Differential Equations for Dynamic Gene Regulatory Network Modeling.

PubMed

Wu, Hulin; Lu, Tao; Xue, Hongqi; Liang, Hua

2014-04-02

The gene regulation network (GRN) is a high-dimensional complex system, which can be represented by various mathematical or statistical models. The ordinary differential equation (ODE) model is one of the popular dynamic GRN models. High-dimensional linear ODE models have been proposed to identify GRNs, but with a limitation of the linear regulation effect assumption. In this article, we propose a sparse additive ODE (SA-ODE) model, coupled with ODE estimation methods and adaptive group LASSO techniques, to model dynamic GRNs that could flexibly deal with nonlinear regulation effects. The asymptotic properties of the proposed method are established and simulation studies are performed to validate the proposed approach. An application example for identifying the nonlinear dynamic GRN of T-cell activation is used to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed method.

Metabolic modeling of dynamic 13C NMR isotopomer data in the brain in vivo: Fast screening of metabolic models using automated generation of differential equations

PubMed Central

Tiret, Brice; Shestov, Alexander A.; Valette, Julien; Henry, Pierre-Gilles

2017-01-01

Most current brain metabolic models are not capable of taking into account the dynamic isotopomer information available from fine structure multiplets in 13C spectra, due to the difficulty of implementing such models. Here we present a new approach that allows automatic implementation of multi-compartment metabolic models capable of fitting any number of 13C isotopomer curves in the brain. The new automated approach also makes it possible to quickly modify and test new models to best describe the experimental data. We demonstrate the power of the new approach by testing the effect of adding separate pyruvate pools in astrocytes and neurons, and adding a vesicular neuronal glutamate pool. Including both changes reduced the global fit residual by half and pointed to dilution of label prior to entry into the astrocytic TCA cycle as the main source of glutamine dilution. The glutamate-glutamine cycle rate was particularly sensitive to changes in the model. PMID:26553273

Identification of time-varying structural dynamic systems - An artificial intelligence approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glass, B. J.; Hanagud, S.

1992-01-01

An application of the artificial intelligence-derived methodologies of heuristic search and object-oriented programming to the problem of identifying the form of the model and the associated parameters of a time-varying structural dynamic system is presented in this paper. Possible model variations due to changes in boundary conditions or configurations of a structure are organized into a taxonomy of models, and a variant of best-first search is used to identify the model whose simulated response best matches that of the current physical structure. Simulated model responses are verified experimentally. An output-error approach is used in a discontinuous model space, and an equation-error approach is used in the parameter space. The advantages of the AI methods used, compared with conventional programming techniques for implementing knowledge structuring and inheritance, are discussed. Convergence conditions and example problems have been discussed. In the example problem, both the time-varying model and its new parameters have been identified when changes occur.

Data-Driven Modeling of Complex Systems by means of a Dynamical ANN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seleznev, A.; Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E.; Feigin, A.

2017-12-01

The data-driven methods for modeling and prognosis of complex dynamical systems become more and more popular in various fields due to growth of high-resolution data. We distinguish the two basic steps in such an approach: (i) determining the phase subspace of the system, or embedding, from available time series and (ii) constructing an evolution operator acting in this reduced subspace. In this work we suggest a novel approach combining these two steps by means of construction of an artificial neural network (ANN) with special topology. The proposed ANN-based model, on the one hand, projects the data onto a low-dimensional manifold, and, on the other hand, models a dynamical system on this manifold. Actually, this is a recurrent multilayer ANN which has internal dynamics and capable of generating time series. Very important point of the proposed methodology is the optimization of the model allowing us to avoid overfitting: we use Bayesian criterion to optimize the ANN structure and estimate both the degree of evolution operator nonlinearity and the complexity of nonlinear manifold which the data are projected on. The proposed modeling technique will be applied to the analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems: Lorenz'96 model of atmospheric turbulence, producing high-dimensional space-time chaos, and quasi-geostrophic three-layer model of the Earth's atmosphere with the natural orography, describing the dynamics of synoptical vortexes as well as mesoscale blocking systems. The possibility of application of the proposed methodology to analyze real measured data is also discussed. The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant #16-12-10198).

A cable-driven parallel robots application: modelling and simulation of a dynamic cable model in Dymola

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Othman, M. F.; Kurniawan, R.; Schramm, D.; Ariffin, A. K.

2018-05-01

Modeling a cable model in multibody dynamics simulation tool which dynamically varies in length, mass and stiffness is a challenging task. Simulation of cable-driven parallel robots (CDPR) for instance requires a cable model that can dynamically change in length for every desired pose of the platform. Thus, in this paper, a detailed procedure for modeling and simulation of a dynamic cable model in Dymola is proposed. The approach is also applicable for other types of Modelica simulation environments. The cable is modeled using standard mechanical elements like mass, spring, damper and joint. The parameters of the cable model are based on the factsheet of the manufacturer and experimental results. Its dynamic ability is tested by applying it on a complete planar CDPR model in which the parameters are based on a prototype named CABLAR, which is developed in Chair of Mechatronics, University of Duisburg-Essen. The prototype has been developed to demonstrate an application of CDPR as a goods storage and retrieval machine. The performance of the cable model during the simulation is analyzed and discussed.

Obtaining a Pragmatic Representation of Fire Disturbance in Dynamic Vegetation Models by Assimilating Earth Observation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kantzas, Euripides; Quegan, Shaun

2015-04-01

Fire constitutes a violent and unpredictable pathway of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere into the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being in many biomes of similar magnitude to that of Net Ecosystem Exchange, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) embedded in IPCC General Circulation Models poorly represent fire behavior and dynamics, a fact which still remains understated. As DVMs operate on a deterministic, grid cell-by-grid cell basis they are unable to describe a host of important fire characteristics such as its propagation, magnitude of area burned and stochastic nature. Here we address these issues by describing a model-independent methodology which assimilates Earth Observation (EO) data by employing image analysis techniques and algorithms to offer a realistic fire disturbance regime in a DVM. This novel approach, with minimum model restructuring, manages to retain the Fire Return Interval produced by the model whilst assigning pragmatic characteristics to its fire outputs thus allowing realistic simulations of fire-related processes such as carbon injection into the atmosphere and permafrost degradation. We focus our simulations in the Arctic and specifically Canada and Russia and we offer a snippet of how this approach permits models to engage in post-fire dynamics hitherto absent from any other model regardless of complexity.

Dynamic Modelling Of A SCARA Robot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turiel, J. Perez; Calleja, R. Grossi; Diez, V. Gutierrez

1987-10-01

This paper describes a method for modelling industrial robots that considers dynamic approach to manipulation systems motion generation, obtaining the complete dynamic model for the mechanic part of the robot and taking into account the dynamic effect of actuators acting at the joints. For a four degree of freedom SCARA robot we obtain the dynamic model for the basic (minimal) configuration, that is, the three degrees of freedom that allow us to place the robot end effector in a desired point, using the Lagrange Method to obtain the dynamic equations in matrix form. The manipulator is considered to be a set of rigid bodies inter-connected by joints in the form of simple kinematic pairs. Then, the state space model is obtained for the actuators that move the robot joints, uniting the models of the single actuators, that is, two DC permanent magnet servomotors and an electrohydraulic actuator. Finally, using a computer simulation program written in FORTRAN language, we can compute the matrices of the complete model.

Space shuttle flying qualities and criteria assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, T. T.; Johnston, D. E.; Mcruer, Duane T.

1987-01-01

Work accomplished under a series of study tasks for the Flying Qualities and Flight Control Systems Design Criteria Experiment (OFQ) of the Shuttle Orbiter Experiments Program (OEX) is summarized. The tasks involved review of applicability of existing flying quality and flight control system specification and criteria for the Shuttle; identification of potentially crucial flying quality deficiencies; dynamic modeling of the Shuttle Orbiter pilot/vehicle system in the terminal flight phases; devising a nonintrusive experimental program for extraction and identification of vehicle dynamics, pilot control strategy, and approach and landing performance metrics, and preparation of an OEX approach to produce a data archive and optimize use of the data to develop flying qualities for future space shuttle craft in general. Analytic modeling of the Orbiter's unconventional closed-loop dynamics in landing, modeling pilot control strategies, verification of vehicle dynamics and pilot control strategy from flight data, review of various existent or proposed aircraft flying quality parameters and criteria in comparison with the unique dynamic characteristics and control aspects of the Shuttle in landing; and finally a summary of conclusions and recommendations for developing flying quality criteria and design guides for future Shuttle craft.

Three-Dimensional Water and Carbon Cycle Modeling at High Spatial-Temporal Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, C.; Zhuang, Q.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems in cryosphere are very sensitive to the global climate change due to the presence of snow covers, mountain glaciers and permafrost, especially when the increase in near surface air temperature is almost twice as large as the global average. However, few studies have investigated the water and carbon cycle dynamics using process-based hydrological and biogeochemistry modeling approach. In this study, we used three-dimensional modeling approach at high spatial-temporal resolutions to investigate the water and carbon cycle dynamics for the Tanana Flats Basin in interior Alaska with emphases on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics. The results have shown that: (1) lateral flow plays an important role in water and carbon cycle, especially in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics. (2) approximately 2.0 × 104 kg C yr-1 DOC is exported to the hydrological networks and it compromises 1% and 0.01% of total annual gross primary production (GPP) and total organic carbon stored in soil, respectively. This study has established an operational and flexible framework to investigate and predict the water and carbon cycle dynamics under the changing climate.

Representing perturbed dynamics in biological network models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoll, Gautier; Rougemont, Jacques; Naef, Felix

2007-07-01

We study the dynamics of gene activities in relatively small size biological networks (up to a few tens of nodes), e.g., the activities of cell-cycle proteins during the mitotic cell-cycle progression. Using the framework of deterministic discrete dynamical models, we characterize the dynamical modifications in response to structural perturbations in the network connectivities. In particular, we focus on how perturbations affect the set of fixed points and sizes of the basins of attraction. Our approach uses two analytical measures: the basin entropy H and the perturbation size Δ , a quantity that reflects the distance between the set of fixed points of the perturbed network and that of the unperturbed network. Applying our approach to the yeast-cell-cycle network introduced by Li [Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 101, 4781 (2004)] provides a low-dimensional and informative fingerprint of network behavior under large classes of perturbations. We identify interactions that are crucial for proper network function, and also pinpoint functionally redundant network connections. Selected perturbations exemplify the breadth of dynamical responses in this cell-cycle model.

Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulation of Flows in an Oxidation Ditch Driven by a New Surface Aerator

PubMed Central

Huang, Weidong; Li, Kun; Wang, Gan; Wang, Yingzhe

2013-01-01

Abstract In this article, we present a newly designed inverse umbrella surface aerator, and tested its performance in driving flow of an oxidation ditch. Results show that it has a better performance in driving the oxidation ditch than the original one with higher average velocity and more uniform flow field. We also present a computational fluid dynamics model for predicting the flow field in an oxidation ditch driven by a surface aerator. The improved momentum source term approach to simulate the flow field of the oxidation ditch driven by an inverse umbrella surface aerator was developed and validated through experiments. Four kinds of turbulent models were investigated with the approach, including the standard k−ɛ model, RNG k−ɛ model, realizable k−ɛ model, and Reynolds stress model, and the predicted data were compared with those calculated with the multiple rotating reference frame approach (MRF) and sliding mesh approach (SM). Results of the momentum source term approach are in good agreement with the experimental data, and its prediction accuracy is better than MRF, close to SM. It is also found that the momentum source term approach has lower computational expenses, is simpler to preprocess, and is easier to use. PMID:24302850

The stochastic system approach for estimating dynamic treatments effect.

PubMed

Commenges, Daniel; Gégout-Petit, Anne

2015-10-01

The problem of assessing the effect of a treatment on a marker in observational studies raises the difficulty that attribution of the treatment may depend on the observed marker values. As an example, we focus on the analysis of the effect of a HAART on CD4 counts, where attribution of the treatment may depend on the observed marker values. This problem has been treated using marginal structural models relying on the counterfactual/potential response formalism. Another approach to causality is based on dynamical models, and causal influence has been formalized in the framework of the Doob-Meyer decomposition of stochastic processes. Causal inference however needs assumptions that we detail in this paper and we call this approach to causality the "stochastic system" approach. First we treat this problem in discrete time, then in continuous time. This approach allows incorporating biological knowledge naturally. When working in continuous time, the mechanistic approach involves distinguishing the model for the system and the model for the observations. Indeed, biological systems live in continuous time, and mechanisms can be expressed in the form of a system of differential equations, while observations are taken at discrete times. Inference in mechanistic models is challenging, particularly from a numerical point of view, but these models can yield much richer and reliable results.

Nonlinear electromechanical modelling and dynamical behavior analysis of a satellite reaction wheel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghalari, Alireza; Shahravi, Morteza

2017-12-01

The present research addresses the satellite reaction wheel (RW) nonlinear electromechanical coupling dynamics including dynamic eccentricity of brushless dc (BLDC) motor and gyroscopic effects, as well as dry friction of shaft-bearing joints (relative small slip) and bearing friction. In contrast to other studies, the rotational velocity of the flywheel is considered to be controllable, so it is possible to study the reaction wheel dynamical behavior in acceleration stages. The RW is modeled as a three-phases BLDC motor as well as flywheel with unbalances on a rigid shaft and flexible bearings. Improved Lagrangian dynamics for electromechanical systems is used to obtain the mathematical model of the system. The developed model can properly describe electromechanical nonlinear coupled dynamical behavior of the satellite RW. Numerical simulations show the effectiveness of the presented approach.

Dynamics of the diffusive DM-DE interaction – Dynamical system approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haba, Zbigniew; Stachowski, Aleksander; Szydłowski, Marek, E-mail: zhab@ift.uni.wroc.pl, E-mail: aleksander.stachowski@uj.edu.pl, E-mail: marek.szydlowski@uj.edu.pl

We discuss dynamics of a model of an energy transfer between dark energy (DE) and dark matter (DM) . The energy transfer is determined by a non-conservation law resulting from a diffusion of dark matter in an environment of dark energy. The relativistic invariance defines the diffusion in a unique way. The system can contain baryonic matter and radiation which do not interact with the dark sector. We treat the Friedman equation and the conservation laws as a closed dynamical system. The dynamics of the model is examined using the dynamical systems methods for demonstration how solutions depend on initialmore » conditions. We also fit the model parameters using astronomical observation: SNIa, H ( z ), BAO and Alcock-Paczynski test. We show that the model with diffuse DM-DE is consistent with the data.« less

Advanced superposition methods for high speed turbopump vibration analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nielson, C. E.; Campany, A. D.

1981-01-01

The small, high pressure Mark 48 liquid hydrogen turbopump was analyzed and dynamically tested to determine the cause of high speed vibration at an operating speed of 92,400 rpm. This approaches the design point operating speed of 95,000 rpm. The initial dynamic analysis in the design stage and subsequent further analysis of the rotor only dynamics failed to predict the vibration characteristics found during testing. An advanced procedure for dynamics analysis was used in this investigation. The procedure involves developing accurate dynamic models of the rotor assembly and casing assembly by finite element analysis. The dynamically instrumented assemblies are independently rap tested to verify the analytical models. The verified models are then combined by modal superposition techniques to develop a completed turbopump model where dynamic characteristics are determined. The results of the dynamic testing and analysis obtained are presented and methods of moving the high speed vibration characteristics to speeds above the operating range are recommended. Recommendations for use of these advanced dynamic analysis procedures during initial design phases are given.

Dynamic modeling and hierarchical compound control of a novel 2-DOF flexible parallel manipulator with multiple actuation modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Dong; Song, Yimin; Sun, Tao; Jin, Xueying

2018-03-01

This paper addresses the problem of rigid-flexible coupling dynamic modeling and active control of a novel flexible parallel manipulator (PM) with multiple actuation modes. Firstly, based on the flexible multi-body dynamics theory, the rigid-flexible coupling dynamic model (RFDM) of system is developed by virtue of the augmented Lagrangian multipliers approach. For completeness, the mathematical models of permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) and piezoelectric transducer (PZT) are further established and integrated with the RFDM of mechanical system to formulate the electromechanical coupling dynamic model (ECDM). To achieve the trajectory tracking and vibration suppression, a hierarchical compound control strategy is presented. Within this control strategy, the proportional-differential (PD) feedback controller is employed to realize the trajectory tracking of end-effector, while the strain and strain rate feedback (SSRF) controller is developed to restrain the vibration of the flexible links using PZT. Furthermore, the stability of the control algorithm is demonstrated based on the Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, two simulation case studies are performed to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results indicate that, under the redundant actuation mode, the hierarchical compound control strategy can guarantee the flexible PM achieves singularity-free motion and vibration attenuation within task workspace simultaneously. The systematic methodology proposed in this study can be conveniently extended for the dynamic modeling and efficient controller design of other flexible PMs, especially the emerging ones with multiple actuation modes.

A High Performance Computing Approach to the Simulation of Fluid Solid Interaction Problems with Rigid and Flexible Components (Open Access Publisher’s Version)

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-01

performance computing, smoothed particle hydrodynamics, rigid body dynamics, flexible body dynamics ARMAN PAZOUKI ∗, RADU SERBAN ∗, DAN NEGRUT ∗ A...HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING APPROACH TO THE SIMULATION OF FLUID-SOLID INTERACTION PROBLEMS WITH RIGID AND FLEXIBLE COMPONENTS This work outlines a unified...are implemented to model rigid and flexible multibody dynamics. The two- way coupling of the fluid and solid phases is supported through use of

A numerical evaluation of the dynamical systems approach to wall layer turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berkooz, Gal

1990-01-01

This work attempts to test predictions based on the Dynamical Systems approach to Wall Layer Turbulence. We analyze the Dynamical Systems model for the nonlinear interaction mechanisms between the coherent structures and deduce qualitative behavior as expected. We then test for this behavior in data sets from D.N.S. The agreement is good, given the suboptimal conditions for the test. We discuss implications of this test and work to be done to deepen the understanding of control of turbulent boundary layers.

Approaches to simulating the “March of Bricks and Mortar”

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goldstein, Noah Charles; Candau, J.T.; Clarke, K.C.

2004-01-01

Re-creation of the extent of urban land use at different periods in time is valuable for examining how cities grow and how policy changes influence urban dynamics. To date, there has been little focus on the modeling of historical urban extent (other than for ancient cities). Instead, current modeling research has emphasized simulating the cities of the future. Predictive models can provide insights into urban growth processes and are valuable for land-use and urban planners, yet historical trends are largely ignored. This is unfortunate since historical data exist for urban areas and can be used to quantitatively test dynamic models and theory. We maintain that understanding the growth dynamics of a region's past allows more intelligent forecasts of its future. We compare using a spatio-temporal interpolation method with an agent-based simulation approach to recreate the urban extent of Santa Barbara, California, annually from 1929 to 2001. The first method uses current yet incomplete data on the construction of homes in the region. The latter uses a Cellular Automata based model, SLEUTH, to back- or hind-cast the urban extent. The success at historical urban growth reproduction of the two approaches used in this work was quantified for comparison. The performance of each method is described, as well as the utility of each model in re-creating the history of Santa Barbara. Additionally, the models’ assumptions about space are contrasted. As a consequence, we propose that both approaches are useful in historical urban simulations, yet the cellular approach is more flexible as it can be extended for spatio-temporal extrapolation.

Supermodeling With A Global Atmospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiegerinck, Wim; Burgers, Willem; Selten, Frank

2013-04-01

In weather and climate prediction studies it often turns out to be the case that the multi-model ensemble mean prediction has the best prediction skill scores. One possible explanation is that the major part of the model error is random and is averaged out in the ensemble mean. In the standard multi-model ensemble approach, the models are integrated in time independently and the predicted states are combined a posteriori. Recently an alternative ensemble prediction approach has been proposed in which the models exchange information during the simulation and synchronize on a common solution that is closer to the truth than any of the individual model solutions in the standard multi-model ensemble approach or a weighted average of these. This approach is called the super modeling approach (SUMO). The potential of the SUMO approach has been demonstrated in the context of simple, low-order, chaotic dynamical systems. The information exchange takes the form of linear nudging terms in the dynamical equations that nudge the solution of each model to the solution of all other models in the ensemble. With a suitable choice of the connection strengths the models synchronize on a common solution that is indeed closer to the true system than any of the individual model solutions without nudging. This approach is called connected SUMO. An alternative approach is to integrate a weighted averaged model, weighted SUMO. At each time step all models in the ensemble calculate the tendency, these tendencies are weighted averaged and the state is integrated one time step into the future with this weighted averaged tendency. It was shown that in case the connected SUMO synchronizes perfectly, the connected SUMO follows the weighted averaged trajectory and both approaches yield the same solution. In this study we pioneer both approaches in the context of a global, quasi-geostrophic, three-level atmosphere model that is capable of simulating quite realistically the extra-tropical circulation in the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Rigid-flexible coupling dynamic modeling and investigation of a redundantly actuated parallel manipulator with multiple actuation modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Dong; Song, Yimin; Sun, Tao; Jin, Xueying

2017-09-01

A systematic dynamic modeling methodology is presented to develop the rigid-flexible coupling dynamic model (RFDM) of an emerging flexible parallel manipulator with multiple actuation modes. By virtue of assumed mode method, the general dynamic model of an arbitrary flexible body with any number of lumped parameters is derived in an explicit closed form, which possesses the modular characteristic. Then the completely dynamic model of system is formulated based on the flexible multi-body dynamics (FMD) theory and the augmented Lagrangian multipliers method. An approach of combining the Udwadia-Kalaba formulation with the hybrid TR-BDF2 numerical algorithm is proposed to address the nonlinear RFDM. Two simulation cases are performed to investigate the dynamic performance of the manipulator with different actuation modes. The results indicate that the redundant actuation modes can effectively attenuate vibration and guarantee higher dynamic performance compared to the traditional non-redundant actuation modes. Finally, a virtual prototype model is developed to demonstrate the validity of the presented RFDM. The systematic methodology proposed in this study can be conveniently extended for the dynamic modeling and controller design of other planar flexible parallel manipulators, especially the emerging ones with multiple actuation modes.

Local Difference Measures between Complex Networks for Dynamical System Model Evaluation

PubMed Central

Lange, Stefan; Donges, Jonathan F.; Volkholz, Jan; Kurths, Jürgen

2015-01-01

A faithful modeling of real-world dynamical systems necessitates model evaluation. A recent promising methodological approach to this problem has been based on complex networks, which in turn have proven useful for the characterization of dynamical systems. In this context, we introduce three local network difference measures and demonstrate their capabilities in the field of climate modeling, where these measures facilitate a spatially explicit model evaluation. Building on a recent study by Feldhoff et al. [1] we comparatively analyze statistical and dynamical regional climate simulations of the South American monsoon system. Three types of climate networks representing different aspects of rainfall dynamics are constructed from the modeled precipitation space-time series. Specifically, we define simple graphs based on positive as well as negative rank correlations between rainfall anomaly time series at different locations, and such based on spatial synchronizations of extreme rain events. An evaluation against respective networks built from daily satellite data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 V7 reveals far greater differences in model performance between network types for a fixed but arbitrary climate model than between climate models for a fixed but arbitrary network type. We identify two sources of uncertainty in this respect. Firstly, climate variability limits fidelity, particularly in the case of the extreme event network; and secondly, larger geographical link lengths render link misplacements more likely, most notably in the case of the anticorrelation network; both contributions are quantified using suitable ensembles of surrogate networks. Our model evaluation approach is applicable to any multidimensional dynamical system and especially our simple graph difference measures are highly versatile as the graphs to be compared may be constructed in whatever way required. Generalizations to directed as well as edge- and node-weighted graphs are discussed. PMID:25856374

Local difference measures between complex networks for dynamical system model evaluation.

PubMed

Lange, Stefan; Donges, Jonathan F; Volkholz, Jan; Kurths, Jürgen

2015-01-01

A faithful modeling of real-world dynamical systems necessitates model evaluation. A recent promising methodological approach to this problem has been based on complex networks, which in turn have proven useful for the characterization of dynamical systems. In this context, we introduce three local network difference measures and demonstrate their capabilities in the field of climate modeling, where these measures facilitate a spatially explicit model evaluation.Building on a recent study by Feldhoff et al. [8] we comparatively analyze statistical and dynamical regional climate simulations of the South American monsoon system [corrected]. types of climate networks representing different aspects of rainfall dynamics are constructed from the modeled precipitation space-time series. Specifically, we define simple graphs based on positive as well as negative rank correlations between rainfall anomaly time series at different locations, and such based on spatial synchronizations of extreme rain events. An evaluation against respective networks built from daily satellite data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 V7 reveals far greater differences in model performance between network types for a fixed but arbitrary climate model than between climate models for a fixed but arbitrary network type. We identify two sources of uncertainty in this respect. Firstly, climate variability limits fidelity, particularly in the case of the extreme event network; and secondly, larger geographical link lengths render link misplacements more likely, most notably in the case of the anticorrelation network; both contributions are quantified using suitable ensembles of surrogate networks. Our model evaluation approach is applicable to any multidimensional dynamical system and especially our simple graph difference measures are highly versatile as the graphs to be compared may be constructed in whatever way required. Generalizations to directed as well as edge- and node-weighted graphs are discussed.

Clinical time series prediction: Toward a hierarchical dynamical system framework.

PubMed

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2015-09-01

Developing machine learning and data mining algorithms for building temporal models of clinical time series is important for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, effect of various patient management interventions and clinical decision making. In this work, we propose and develop a novel hierarchical framework for modeling clinical time series data of varied length and with irregularly sampled observations. Our hierarchical dynamical system framework for modeling clinical time series combines advantages of the two temporal modeling approaches: the linear dynamical system and the Gaussian process. We model the irregularly sampled clinical time series by using multiple Gaussian process sequences in the lower level of our hierarchical framework and capture the transitions between Gaussian processes by utilizing the linear dynamical system. The experiments are conducted on the complete blood count (CBC) panel data of 1000 post-surgical cardiac patients during their hospitalization. Our framework is evaluated and compared to multiple baseline approaches in terms of the mean absolute prediction error and the absolute percentage error. We tested our framework by first learning the time series model from data for the patients in the training set, and then using it to predict future time series values for the patients in the test set. We show that our model outperforms multiple existing models in terms of its predictive accuracy. Our method achieved a 3.13% average prediction accuracy improvement on ten CBC lab time series when it was compared against the best performing baseline. A 5.25% average accuracy improvement was observed when only short-term predictions were considered. A new hierarchical dynamical system framework that lets us model irregularly sampled time series data is a promising new direction for modeling clinical time series and for improving their predictive performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deconstructing the core dynamics from a complex time-lagged regulatory biological circuit.

PubMed

Eriksson, O; Brinne, B; Zhou, Y; Björkegren, J; Tegnér, J

2009-03-01

Complex regulatory dynamics is ubiquitous in molecular networks composed of genes and proteins. Recent progress in computational biology and its application to molecular data generate a growing number of complex networks. Yet, it has been difficult to understand the governing principles of these networks beyond graphical analysis or extensive numerical simulations. Here the authors exploit several simplifying biological circumstances which thereby enable to directly detect the underlying dynamical regularities driving periodic oscillations in a dynamical nonlinear computational model of a protein-protein network. System analysis is performed using the cell cycle, a mathematically well-described complex regulatory circuit driven by external signals. By introducing an explicit time delay and using a 'tearing-and-zooming' approach the authors reduce the system to a piecewise linear system with two variables that capture the dynamics of this complex network. A key step in the analysis is the identification of functional subsystems by identifying the relations between state-variables within the model. These functional subsystems are referred to as dynamical modules operating as sensitive switches in the original complex model. By using reduced mathematical representations of the subsystems the authors derive explicit conditions on how the cell cycle dynamics depends on system parameters, and can, for the first time, analyse and prove global conditions for system stability. The approach which includes utilising biological simplifying conditions, identification of dynamical modules and mathematical reduction of the model complexity may be applicable to other well-characterised biological regulatory circuits. [Includes supplementary material].

Dynamic analysis of Space Shuttle/RMS configuration using continuum approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramakrishnan, Jayant; Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr.

1994-01-01

The initial assembly of Space Station Freedom involves the Space Shuttle, its Remote Manipulation System (RMS) and the evolving Space Station Freedom. The dynamics of this coupled system involves both the structural and the control system dynamics of each of these components. The modeling and analysis of such an assembly is made even more formidable by kinematic and joint nonlinearities. The current practice of modeling such flexible structures is to use finite element modeling in which the mass and interior dynamics is ignored between thousands of nodes, for each major component. The model characteristics of only tens of modes are kept out of thousands which are calculated. The components are then connected by approximating the boundary conditions and inserting the control system dynamics. In this paper continuum models are used instead of finite element models because of the improved accuracy, reduced number of model parameters, the avoidance of model order reduction, and the ability to represent the structural and control system dynamics in the same system of equations. Dynamic analysis of linear versions of the model is performed and compared with finite element model results. Additionally, the transfer matrix to continuum modeling is presented.

Simulating forest fuel and fire risk dynamics across landscapes--LANDIS fuel module design

Treesearch

Hong S. He; Bo Z. Shang; Thomas R. Crow; Eric J. Gustafson; Stephen R. Shifley

2004-01-01

Understanding fuel dynamics over large spatial (103-106 ha) and temporal scales (101-103 years) is important in comprehensive wildfire management. We present a modeling approach to simulate fuel and fire risk dynamics as well as impacts of alternative fuel treatments. The...

Career Theory from an International Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guichard, Jean; Lenz, Janet

2005-01-01

The Career Theory in an International Perspective group highlighted 7 approaches: action theory, self-construction model, transition model, dynamics of entering the workforce, narrative in career guidance, dilemma approach, and interactive identity construction. Three main characteristics appear to be common to these different contributions: (a)…

Demonstration of the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology using the Titan 2 Space Launch Vehicle Digital Flight Control System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yau, M.; Guarro, S.; Apostolakis, G.

1993-01-01

Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) is a new approach developed to integrate the modeling and analysis of the hardware and software components of an embedded system. The objective is to complement the traditional approaches which generally follow the philosophy of separating out the hardware and software portions of the assurance analysis. In this paper, the DFM approach is demonstrated using the Titan 2 Space Launch Vehicle Digital Flight Control System. The hardware and software portions of this embedded system are modeled in an integrated framework. In addition, the time dependent behavior and the switching logic can be captured by this DFM model. In the modeling process, it is found that constructing decision tables for software subroutines is very time consuming. A possible solution is suggested. This approach makes use of a well-known numerical method, the Newton-Raphson method, to solve the equations implemented in the subroutines in reverse. Convergence can be achieved in a few steps.

Inferring Instantaneous, Multivariate and Nonlinear Sensitivities for the Analysis of Feedback Processes in a Dynamical System: Lorenz Model Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aires, Filipe; Rossow, William B.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A new approach is presented for the analysis of feedback processes in a nonlinear dynamical system by observing its variations. The new methodology consists of statistical estimates of the sensitivities between all pairs of variables in the system based on a neural network modeling of the dynamical system. The model can then be used to estimate the instantaneous, multivariate and nonlinear sensitivities, which are shown to be essential for the analysis of the feedbacks processes involved in the dynamical system. The method is described and tested on synthetic data from the low-order Lorenz circulation model where the correct sensitivities can be evaluated analytically.

Hydro-dynamic damping theory in flowing water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monette, C.; Nennemann, B.; Seeley, C.; Coutu, A.; Marmont, H.

2014-03-01

Fluid-structure interaction (FSI) has a major impact on the dynamic response of the structural components of hydroelectric turbines. On mid-head to high-head Francis runners, the rotor-stator interaction (RSI) phenomenon always has to be considered carefully during the design phase to avoid operational issues later on. The RSI dynamic response amplitudes are driven by three main factors: (1) pressure forcing amplitudes, (2) excitation frequencies in relation to natural frequencies and (3) damping. The prediction of the two first factors has been largely documented in the literature. However, the prediction of fluid damping has received less attention in spite of being critical when the runner is close to resonance. Experimental damping measurements in flowing water on hydrofoils were presented previously. Those results showed that the hydro-dynamic damping increased linearly with the flow. This paper presents development and validation of a mathematical model, based on momentum exchange, to predict damping due to fluid structure interaction in flowing water. The model is implemented as an analytical procedure for simple structures, such as cantilever beams, but is also implemented in more general ways using three different approaches for more complex structures such as runner blades: a finite element procedure, a CFD modal work based approach and a CFD 1DOF approach. The mathematical model and all three implementation approaches are shown to agree well with experimental results.

A System Dynamics Model for Integrated Decision Making ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program (SHC) is conducting transdisciplinary research to inform and empower decision-makers. EPA tools and approaches are being developed to enable communities to effectively weigh and integrate human health, socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological factors into their decisions to promote community sustainability. To help achieve this goal, EPA researchers have developed systems approaches to account for the linkages among resources, assets, and outcomes managed by a community. System dynamics (SD) is a member of the family of systems approaches and provides a framework for dynamic modeling that can assist with assessing and understanding complex issues across multiple dimensions. To test the utility of such tools when applied to a real-world situation, the EPA has developed a prototype SD model for community sustainability using the proposed Durham-Orange Light Rail Project (D-O LRP) as a case study.The EPA D-O LRP SD modeling team chose the proposed D-O LRP to demonstrate that an integrated modeling approach could represent the multitude of related cross-sectoral decisions that would be made and the cascading impacts that could result from a light rail transit system connecting Durham and Chapel Hill, NC. In keeping with the SHC vision described above, the proposal for the light rail is a starting point solution for the more intractable problems of population growth, unsustainable land use, environmenta

On the Use of a Dynamic Evaluation Approach to Assess Multi-year Change in Modeled and Observed Urban NOx Concentrations

EPA Science Inventory

Model results and measurements were analyzed to determine the extent of change in concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) during morning weekday high traffic periods from different summer seasons that could be related to change in mobile source emissions. The dynamic evaluation ...

Building a Bridge into the Future: Dynamic Connectionist Modeling as an Integrative Tool for Research on Intertemporal Choice

PubMed Central

Scherbaum, Stefan; Dshemuchadse, Maja; Goschke, Thomas

2012-01-01

Temporal discounting denotes the fact that individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to a higher extent than suggested by normative economical theories. In this article, we identify three lines of research studying this phenomenon which aim (i) to describe temporal discounting mathematically, (ii) to explain observed choice behavior psychologically, and (iii) to predict the influence of specific factors on intertemporal decisions. We then opt for an approach integrating postulated mechanisms and empirical findings from these three lines of research. Our approach focuses on the dynamical properties of decision processes and is based on computational modeling. We present a dynamic connectionist model of intertemporal choice focusing on the role of self-control and time framing as two central factors determining choice behavior. Results of our simulations indicate that the two influences interact with each other, and we present experimental data supporting this prediction. We conclude that computational modeling of the decision process dynamics can advance the integration of different strands of research in intertemporal choice. PMID:23181048

The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, M. A.; Winkelmann, R.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.

2010-08-01

We present a dynamic equilibrium simulation of the ice sheet-shelf system on Antarctica with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK). The simulation is initialized with present-day conditions for topography and ice thickness and then run to steady state with constant present-day surface mass balance. Surface temperature and basal melt distribution are parameterized. Grounding lines and calving fronts are free to evolve, and their modeled equilibrium state is compared to observational data. A physically-motivated dynamic calving law based on horizontal spreading rates allows for realistic calving fronts for various types of shelves. Steady-state dynamics including surface velocity and ice flux are analyzed for whole Antarctica and the Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelf areas in particular. The results show that the different flow regimes in sheet and shelves, and the transition zone between them, are captured reasonably well, supporting the approach of superposition of SIA and SSA for the representation of fast motion of grounded ice. This approach also leads to a natural emergence of streams in this new 3-D marine ice sheet model.

Building a bridge into the future: dynamic connectionist modeling as an integrative tool for research on intertemporal choice.

PubMed

Scherbaum, Stefan; Dshemuchadse, Maja; Goschke, Thomas

2012-01-01

Temporal discounting denotes the fact that individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to a higher extent than suggested by normative economical theories. In this article, we identify three lines of research studying this phenomenon which aim (i) to describe temporal discounting mathematically, (ii) to explain observed choice behavior psychologically, and (iii) to predict the influence of specific factors on intertemporal decisions. We then opt for an approach integrating postulated mechanisms and empirical findings from these three lines of research. Our approach focuses on the dynamical properties of decision processes and is based on computational modeling. We present a dynamic connectionist model of intertemporal choice focusing on the role of self-control and time framing as two central factors determining choice behavior. Results of our simulations indicate that the two influences interact with each other, and we present experimental data supporting this prediction. We conclude that computational modeling of the decision process dynamics can advance the integration of different strands of research in intertemporal choice.

A quantitative evaluation of a qualitative risk assessment framework: Examining the assumptions and predictions of the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA)

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Qualitative risk assessment frameworks, such as the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA), have been developed to rapidly evaluate the risks of fishing to marine populations and prioritize management and research among species. Despite being applied to over 1,000 fish populations, and an ongoing debate about the most appropriate method to convert biological and fishery characteristics into an overall measure of risk, the assumptions and predictive capacity of these approaches have not been evaluated. Several interpretations of the PSA were mapped to a conventional age-structured fisheries dynamics model to evaluate the performance of the approach under a range of assumptions regarding exploitation rates and measures of biological risk. The results demonstrate that the underlying assumptions of these qualitative risk-based approaches are inappropriate, and the expected performance is poor for a wide range of conditions. The information required to score a fishery using a PSA-type approach is comparable to that required to populate an operating model and evaluating the population dynamics within a simulation framework. In addition to providing a more credible characterization of complex system dynamics, the operating model approach is transparent, reproducible and can evaluate alternative management strategies over a range of plausible hypotheses for the system. PMID:29856869

Dynamic Simulation of Human Gait Model With Predictive Capability.

PubMed

Sun, Jinming; Wu, Shaoli; Voglewede, Philip A

2018-03-01

In this paper, it is proposed that the central nervous system (CNS) controls human gait using a predictive control approach in conjunction with classical feedback control instead of exclusive classical feedback control theory that controls based on past error. To validate this proposition, a dynamic model of human gait is developed using a novel predictive approach to investigate the principles of the CNS. The model developed includes two parts: a plant model that represents the dynamics of human gait and a controller that represents the CNS. The plant model is a seven-segment, six-joint model that has nine degrees-of-freedom (DOF). The plant model is validated using data collected from able-bodied human subjects. The proposed controller utilizes model predictive control (MPC). MPC uses an internal model to predict the output in advance, compare the predicted output to the reference, and optimize the control input so that the predicted error is minimal. To decrease the complexity of the model, two joints are controlled using a proportional-derivative (PD) controller. The developed predictive human gait model is validated by simulating able-bodied human gait. The simulation results show that the developed model is able to simulate the kinematic output close to experimental data.

Landslide Hazard from Coupled Inherent and Dynamic Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Nudurupati, S. S.

2015-12-01

Landslide hazard research has typically been conducted independently from hydroclimate research. We sought to unify these two lines of research to provide regional scale landslide hazard information for risk assessments and resource management decision-making. Our approach couples an empirical inherent landslide probability, based on a frequency ratio analysis, with a numerical dynamic probability, generated by combining subsurface water recharge and surface runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface hydrologic model with a finer resolution probabilistic slope stability model. Landslide hazard mapping is advanced by combining static and dynamic models of stability into a probabilistic measure of geohazard prediction in both space and time. This work will aid resource management decision-making in current and future landscape and climatic conditions. The approach is applied as a case study in North Cascade National Park Complex in northern Washington State.

Modeling the dynamics of multipartite quantum systems created departing from two-level systems using general local and non-local interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgado, Francisco

2017-12-01

Quantum information is an emergent area merging physics, mathematics, computer science and engineering. To reach its technological goals, it is requiring adequate approaches to understand how to combine physical restrictions, computational approaches and technological requirements to get functional universal quantum information processing. This work presents the modeling and the analysis of certain general type of Hamiltonian representing several physical systems used in quantum information and establishing a dynamics reduction in a natural grammar for bipartite processing based on entangled states.

Dynamic Computation of Change Operations in Version Management of Business Process Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Küster, Jochen Malte; Gerth, Christian; Engels, Gregor

Version management of business process models requires that changes can be resolved by applying change operations. In order to give a user maximal freedom concerning the application order of change operations, position parameters of change operations must be computed dynamically during change resolution. In such an approach, change operations with computed position parameters must be applicable on the model and dependencies and conflicts of change operations must be taken into account because otherwise invalid models can be constructed. In this paper, we study the concept of partially specified change operations where parameters are computed dynamically. We provide a formalization for partially specified change operations using graph transformation and provide a concept for their applicability. Based on this, we study potential dependencies and conflicts of change operations and show how these can be taken into account within change resolution. Using our approach, a user can resolve changes of business process models without being unnecessarily restricted to a certain order.

Hyperbolic scaling and computing in social crowds: Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modelling to "big data" toward crisis management" by Nicola Bellomo et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Outada, Nisrine

2016-09-01

I have read with great interest the paper [5] where the authors present an overview and critical analysis of the literature on the modeling of the crowd dynamics with special attention to evacuation dynamics. The approach developed is based on suitable development of methods of the kinetic theory. Interactions, which lead to the decision choice, are modeled by theoretical tools of stochastic evolutionary game theory [11,12]. However, the paper [5] provides not only a survey focused on topics of great interest for our society, but also it looks ahead to a variety of interesting and challenging mathematical problems. Specifically, I am interested in the derivation of macroscopic (hydrodynamic) models from the underlying description given from the kinetic theory approach, more specifically by the kinetic theory for active particles [8]. A general reference on crowd modeling is the recently published book [10].

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

2008-10-23

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

Deducing Electronic Unit Internal Response During a Vibration Test Using a Lumped Parameter Modeling Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Dyke, Michael B.

2014-01-01

During random vibration testing of electronic boxes there is often a desire to know the dynamic response of certain internal printed wiring boards (PWBs) for the purpose of monitoring the response of sensitive hardware or for post-test forensic analysis in support of anomaly investigation. Due to restrictions on internally mounted accelerometers for most flight hardware there is usually no means to empirically observe the internal dynamics of the unit, so one must resort to crude and highly uncertain approximations. One common practice is to apply Miles Equation, which does not account for the coupled response of the board in the chassis, resulting in significant over- or under-prediction. This paper explores the application of simple multiple-degree-of-freedom lumped parameter modeling to predict the coupled random vibration response of the PWBs in their fundamental modes of vibration. A simple tool using this approach could be used during or following a random vibration test to interpret vibration test data from a single external chassis measurement to deduce internal board dynamics by means of a rapid correlation analysis. Such a tool might also be useful in early design stages as a supplemental analysis to a more detailed finite element analysis to quickly prototype and analyze the dynamics of various design iterations. After developing the theoretical basis, a lumped parameter modeling approach is applied to an electronic unit for which both external and internal test vibration response measurements are available for direct comparison. Reasonable correlation of the results demonstrates the potential viability of such an approach. Further development of the preliminary approach presented in this paper will involve correlation with detailed finite element models and additional relevant test data.

Nonlinear dynamic macromodeling techniques for audio systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogrodzki, Jan; Bieńkowski, Piotr

2015-09-01

This paper develops a modelling method and a models identification technique for the nonlinear dynamic audio systems. Identification is performed by means of a behavioral approach based on a polynomial approximation. This approach makes use of Discrete Fourier Transform and Harmonic Balance Method. A model of an audio system is first created and identified and then it is simulated in real time using an algorithm of low computational complexity. The algorithm consists in real time emulation of the system response rather than in simulation of the system itself. The proposed software is written in Python language using object oriented programming techniques. The code is optimized for a multithreads environment.

Multiscale Particle-Based Modeling of Flowing Platelets in Blood Plasma Using Dissipative Particle Dynamics and Coarse Grained Molecular Dynamics

PubMed Central

Zhang, Peng; Gao, Chao; Zhang, Na; Slepian, Marvin J.; Deng, Yuefan; Bluestein, Danny

2014-01-01

We developed a multiscale particle-based model of platelets, to study the transport dynamics of shear stresses between the surrounding fluid and the platelet membrane. This model facilitates a more accurate prediction of the activation potential of platelets by viscous shear stresses - one of the major mechanisms leading to thrombus formation in cardiovascular diseases and in prosthetic cardiovascular devices. The interface of the model couples coarse-grained molecular dynamics (CGMD) with dissipative particle dynamics (DPD). The CGMD handles individual platelets while the DPD models the macroscopic transport of blood plasma in vessels. A hybrid force field is formulated for establishing a functional interface between the platelet membrane and the surrounding fluid, in which the microstructural changes of platelets may respond to the extracellular viscous shear stresses transferred to them. The interaction between the two systems preserves dynamic properties of the flowing platelets, such as the flipping motion. Using this multiscale particle-based approach, we have further studied the effects of the platelet elastic modulus by comparing the action of the flow-induced shear stresses on rigid and deformable platelet models. The results indicate that neglecting the platelet deformability may overestimate the stress on the platelet membrane, which in turn may lead to erroneous predictions of the platelet activation under viscous shear flow conditions. This particle-based fluid-structure interaction multiscale model offers for the first time a computationally feasible approach for simulating deformable platelets interacting with viscous blood flow, aimed at predicting flow induced platelet activation by using a highly resolved mapping of the stress distribution on the platelet membrane under dynamic flow conditions. PMID:25530818

Dynamic cone beam CT angiography of carotid and cerebral arteries using canine model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cai Weixing; Zhao Binghui; Conover, David

2012-01-15

Purpose: This research is designed to develop and evaluate a flat-panel detector-based dynamic cone beam CT system for dynamic angiography imaging, which is able to provide both dynamic functional information and dynamic anatomic information from one multirevolution cone beam CT scan. Methods: A dynamic cone beam CT scan acquired projections over four revolutions within a time window of 40 s after contrast agent injection through a femoral vein to cover the entire wash-in and wash-out phases. A dynamic cone beam CT reconstruction algorithm was utilized and a novel recovery method was developed to correct the time-enhancement curve of contrast flow.more » From the same data set, both projection-based subtraction and reconstruction-based subtraction approaches were utilized and compared to remove the background tissues and visualize the 3D vascular structure to provide the dynamic anatomic information. Results: Through computer simulations, the new recovery algorithm for dynamic time-enhancement curves was optimized and showed excellent accuracy to recover the actual contrast flow. Canine model experiments also indicated that the recovered time-enhancement curves from dynamic cone beam CT imaging agreed well with that of an IV-digital subtraction angiography (DSA) study. The dynamic vascular structures reconstructed using both projection-based subtraction and reconstruction-based subtraction were almost identical as the differences between them were comparable to the background noise level. At the enhancement peak, all the major carotid and cerebral arteries and the Circle of Willis could be clearly observed. Conclusions: The proposed dynamic cone beam CT approach can accurately recover the actual contrast flow, and dynamic anatomic imaging can be obtained with high isotropic 3D resolution. This approach is promising for diagnosis and treatment planning of vascular diseases and strokes.« less

Impulse processing: A dynamical systems model of incremental eye movements in the visual world paradigm

PubMed Central

Kukona, Anuenue; Tabor, Whitney

2011-01-01

The visual world paradigm presents listeners with a challenging problem: they must integrate two disparate signals, the spoken language and the visual context, in support of action (e.g., complex movements of the eyes across a scene). We present Impulse Processing, a dynamical systems approach to incremental eye movements in the visual world that suggests a framework for integrating language, vision, and action generally. Our approach assumes that impulses driven by the language and the visual context impinge minutely on a dynamical landscape of attractors corresponding to the potential eye-movement behaviors of the system. We test three unique predictions of our approach in an empirical study in the visual world paradigm, and describe an implementation in an artificial neural network. We discuss the Impulse Processing framework in relation to other models of the visual world paradigm. PMID:21609355

Evaluating Dynamic Bivariate Correlations in Resting-state fMRI: A comparison study and a new approach

PubMed Central

Lindquist, Martin A.; Xu, Yuting; Nebel, Mary Beth; Caffo, Brain S.

2014-01-01

To date, most functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) studies have assumed that the functional connectivity (FC) between time series from distinct brain regions is constant across time. However, recently, there has been increased interest in quantifying possible dynamic changes in FC during fMRI experiments, as it is thought this may provide insight into the fundamental workings of brain networks. In this work we focus on the specific problem of estimating the dynamic behavior of pair-wise correlations between time courses extracted from two different regions of the brain. We critique the commonly used sliding-windows technique, and discuss some alternative methods used to model volatility in the finance literature that could also prove useful in the neuroimaging setting. In particular, we focus on the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model, which provides a model-based approach towards estimating dynamic correlations. We investigate the properties of several techniques in a series of simulation studies and find that DCC achieves the best overall balance between sensitivity and specificity in detecting dynamic changes in correlations. We also investigate its scalability beyond the bivariate case to demonstrate its utility for studying dynamic correlations between more than two brain regions. Finally, we illustrate its performance in an application to test-retest resting state fMRI data. PMID:24993894

DARPA Helicopter Quieting Program W911NF0410424

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-01

Leishman , J. G. and Beddoes , T. S., “A Semi-Empirical Model for Dynamic Stall ,” Journal of the American Heli- copter Society, Vol. 34, No. 3, July 1989...of physical phenomena that include transonic and compressibility effects on the advancing blade, dynamic stall on the retreating blades and the...research approach is that even the most advanced models of a given discipline, e.g., comprehensive structural or flight dynamics codes , concentrate on a very

Stochastic analysis of surface roughness models in quantum wires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nedjalkov, Mihail; Ellinghaus, Paul; Weinbub, Josef; Sadi, Toufik; Asenov, Asen; Dimov, Ivan; Selberherr, Siegfried

2018-07-01

We present a signed particle computational approach for the Wigner transport model and use it to analyze the electron state dynamics in quantum wires focusing on the effect of surface roughness. Usually surface roughness is considered as a scattering model, accounted for by the Fermi Golden Rule, which relies on approximations like statistical averaging and in the case of quantum wires incorporates quantum corrections based on the mode space approach. We provide a novel computational approach to enable physical analysis of these assumptions in terms of phase space and particles. Utilized is the signed particles model of Wigner evolution, which, besides providing a full quantum description of the electron dynamics, enables intuitive insights into the processes of tunneling, which govern the physical evolution. It is shown that the basic assumptions of the quantum-corrected scattering model correspond to the quantum behavior of the electron system. Of particular importance is the distribution of the density: Due to the quantum confinement, electrons are kept away from the walls, which is in contrast to the classical scattering model. Further quantum effects are retardation of the electron dynamics and quantum reflection. Far from equilibrium the assumption of homogeneous conditions along the wire breaks even in the case of ideal wire walls.

Multiscale modeling of brain dynamics: from single neurons and networks to mathematical tools.

PubMed

Siettos, Constantinos; Starke, Jens

2016-09-01

The extreme complexity of the brain naturally requires mathematical modeling approaches on a large variety of scales; the spectrum ranges from single neuron dynamics over the behavior of groups of neurons to neuronal network activity. Thus, the connection between the microscopic scale (single neuron activity) to macroscopic behavior (emergent behavior of the collective dynamics) and vice versa is a key to understand the brain in its complexity. In this work, we attempt a review of a wide range of approaches, ranging from the modeling of single neuron dynamics to machine learning. The models include biophysical as well as data-driven phenomenological models. The discussed models include Hodgkin-Huxley, FitzHugh-Nagumo, coupled oscillators (Kuramoto oscillators, Rössler oscillators, and the Hindmarsh-Rose neuron), Integrate and Fire, networks of neurons, and neural field equations. In addition to the mathematical models, important mathematical methods in multiscale modeling and reconstruction of the causal connectivity are sketched. The methods include linear and nonlinear tools from statistics, data analysis, and time series analysis up to differential equations, dynamical systems, and bifurcation theory, including Granger causal connectivity analysis, phase synchronization connectivity analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), independent component analysis (ICA), and manifold learning algorithms such as ISOMAP, and diffusion maps and equation-free techniques. WIREs Syst Biol Med 2016, 8:438-458. doi: 10.1002/wsbm.1348 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Formation of an internal model of environment dynamics during upper limb reaching movements: a fuzzy approach.

PubMed

MacDonald, Chad; Moussavi, Zahra; Sarkodie-Gyan, Thompson

2007-01-01

This paper presents the development and simulation of a fuzzy logic based learning mechanism to emulate human motor learning. In particular, fuzzy inference was used to develop an internal model of a novel dynamic environment experienced during planar reaching movements with the upper limb. A dynamic model of the human arm was developed and a fuzzy if-then rule base was created to relate trajectory movement and velocity errors to internal model update parameters. An experimental simulation was performed to compare the fuzzy system's performance with that of human subjects. It was found that the dynamic model behaved as expected, and the fuzzy learning mechanism created an internal model that was capable of opposing the environmental force field to regain a trajectory closely resembling the desired ideal.

Nonlinear dynamics that appears in the dynamical model of drying process of a polymer solution coated on a flat substrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kagami, Hiroyuki

2007-01-01

We have proposed and modified the dynamical model of drying process of polymer solution coated on a flat substrate for flat polymer film fabrication and have presented the fruits through some meetings and so on. Though basic equations of the dynamical model have characteristic nonlinearity, character of the nonlinearity has not been studied enough yet. In this paper, at first, we derive nonlinear equations from the dynamical model of drying process of polymer solution. Then we introduce results of numerical simulations of the nonlinear equations and consider roles of various parameters. Some of them are indirectly concerned in strength of non-equilibriumity. Through this study, we approach essential qualities of nonlinearity in non-equilibrium process of drying process.

Competing opinions and stubborness: Connecting models to data.

PubMed

Burghardt, Keith; Rand, William; Girvan, Michelle

2016-03-01

We introduce a general contagionlike model for competing opinions that includes dynamic resistance to alternative opinions. We show that this model can describe candidate vote distributions, spatial vote correlations, and a slow approach to opinion consensus with sensible parameter values. These empirical properties of large group dynamics, previously understood using distinct models, may be different aspects of human behavior that can be captured by a more unified model, such as the one introduced in this paper.

Accurate Sloshing Modes Modeling: A New Analytical Solution and its Consequences on Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonidou, Luc-Olivier; Desmariaux, Jean

2014-06-01

This study addresses the issue of sloshing modes modeling for GNC analyses purposes. On European launchers, equivalent mechanical systems are commonly used for modeling sloshing effects on launcher dynamics. The representativeness of such a methodology is discussed here. First an exact analytical formulation of the launcher dynamics fitted with sloshing modes is proposed and discrepancies with equivalent mechanical system approach are emphasized. Then preliminary comparative GNC analyses are performed using the different models of dynamics in order to evaluate the impact of the aforementioned discrepancies from GNC standpoint. Special attention is paid to system stability.

An action potential-driven model of soleus muscle activation dynamics for locomotor-like movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hojeong; Sandercock, Thomas G.; Heckman, C. J.

2015-08-01

Objective. The goal of this study was to develop a physiologically plausible, computationally robust model for muscle activation dynamics (A(t)) under physiologically relevant excitation and movement. Approach. The interaction of excitation and movement on A(t) was investigated comparing the force production between a cat soleus muscle and its Hill-type model. For capturing A(t) under excitation and movement variation, a modular modeling framework was proposed comprising of three compartments: (1) spikes-to-[Ca2+]; (2) [Ca2+]-to-A; and (3) A-to-force transformation. The individual signal transformations were modeled based on physiological factors so that the parameter values could be separately determined for individual modules directly based on experimental data. Main results. The strong dependency of A(t) on excitation frequency and muscle length was found during both isometric and dynamically-moving contractions. The identified dependencies of A(t) under the static and dynamic conditions could be incorporated in the modular modeling framework by modulating the model parameters as a function of movement input. The new modeling approach was also applicable to cat soleus muscles producing waveforms independent of those used to set the model parameters. Significance. This study provides a modeling framework for spike-driven muscle responses during movement, that is suitable not only for insights into molecular mechanisms underlying muscle behaviors but also for large scale simulations.

Coupled intertwiner dynamics: A toy model for coupling matter to spin foam models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinhaus, Sebastian

2015-09-01

The universal coupling of matter and gravity is one of the most important features of general relativity. In quantum gravity, in particular spin foams, matter couplings have been defined in the past, yet the mutual dynamics, in particular if matter and gravity are strongly coupled, are hardly explored, which is related to the definition of both matter and gravitational degrees of freedom on the discretization. However, extracting these mutual dynamics is crucial in testing the viability of the spin foam approach and also establishing connections to other discrete approaches such as lattice gauge theories. Therefore, we introduce a simple two-dimensional toy model for Yang-Mills coupled to spin foams, namely an Ising model coupled to so-called intertwiner models defined for SU (2 )k. The two systems are coupled by choosing the Ising coupling constant to depend on spin labels of the background, as these are interpreted as the edge lengths of the discretization. We coarse grain this toy model via tensor network renormalization and uncover an interesting dynamics: the Ising phase transition temperature turns out to be sensitive to the background configurations and conversely, the Ising model can induce phase transitions in the background. Moreover, we observe a strong coupling of both systems if close to both phase transitions.

A simple method for identifying parameter correlations in partially observed linear dynamic models.

PubMed

Li, Pu; Vu, Quoc Dong

2015-12-14

Parameter estimation represents one of the most significant challenges in systems biology. This is because biological models commonly contain a large number of parameters among which there may be functional interrelationships, thus leading to the problem of non-identifiability. Although identifiability analysis has been extensively studied by analytical as well as numerical approaches, systematic methods for remedying practically non-identifiable models have rarely been investigated. We propose a simple method for identifying pairwise correlations and higher order interrelationships of parameters in partially observed linear dynamic models. This is made by derivation of the output sensitivity matrix and analysis of the linear dependencies of its columns. Consequently, analytical relations between the identifiability of the model parameters and the initial conditions as well as the input functions can be achieved. In the case of structural non-identifiability, identifiable combinations can be obtained by solving the resulting homogenous linear equations. In the case of practical non-identifiability, experiment conditions (i.e. initial condition and constant control signals) can be provided which are necessary for remedying the non-identifiability and unique parameter estimation. It is noted that the approach does not consider noisy data. In this way, the practical non-identifiability issue, which is popular for linear biological models, can be remedied. Several linear compartment models including an insulin receptor dynamics model are taken to illustrate the application of the proposed approach. Both structural and practical identifiability of partially observed linear dynamic models can be clarified by the proposed method. The result of this method provides important information for experimental design to remedy the practical non-identifiability if applicable. The derivation of the method is straightforward and thus the algorithm can be easily implemented into a software packet.

Degradation modeling of high temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cells using dual time scale simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, E.; Maximini, M.; Bauschulte, A.; vom Schloß, J.; Hermanns, R. T. E.

2015-02-01

HT-PEM fuel cells suffer from performance losses due to degradation effects. Therefore, the durability of HT-PEM is currently an important factor of research and development. In this paper a novel approach is presented for an integrated short term and long term simulation of HT-PEM accelerated lifetime testing. The physical phenomena of short term and long term effects are commonly modeled separately due to the different time scales. However, in accelerated lifetime testing, long term degradation effects have a crucial impact on the short term dynamics. Our approach addresses this problem by applying a novel method for dual time scale simulation. A transient system simulation is performed for an open voltage cycle test on a HT-PEM fuel cell for a physical time of 35 days. The analysis describes the system dynamics by numerical electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. Furthermore, a performance assessment is performed in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the approach. The presented approach reduces the simulation time by approximately 73% compared to conventional simulation approach without losing too much accuracy. The approach promises a comprehensive perspective considering short term dynamic behavior and long term degradation effects.

NASA Workshop on Distributed Parameter Modeling and Control of Flexible Aerospace Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marks, Virginia B. (Compiler); Keckler, Claude R. (Compiler)

1994-01-01

Although significant advances have been made in modeling and controlling flexible systems, there remains a need for improvements in model accuracy and in control performance. The finite element models of flexible systems are unduly complex and are almost intractable to optimum parameter estimation for refinement using experimental data. Distributed parameter or continuum modeling offers some advantages and some challenges in both modeling and control. Continuum models often result in a significantly reduced number of model parameters, thereby enabling optimum parameter estimation. The dynamic equations of motion of continuum models provide the advantage of allowing the embedding of the control system dynamics, thus forming a complete set of system dynamics. There is also increased insight provided by the continuum model approach.

Dynamic Fuzzy Model Development for a Drum-type Boiler-turbine Plant Through GK Clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habbi, Ahcène; Zelmat, Mimoun

2008-10-01

This paper discusses a TS fuzzy model identification method for an industrial drum-type boiler plant using the GK fuzzy clustering approach. The fuzzy model is constructed from a set of input-output data that covers a wide operating range of the physical plant. The reference data is generated using a complex first-principle-based mathematical model that describes the key dynamical properties of the boiler-turbine dynamics. The proposed fuzzy model is derived by means of fuzzy clustering method with particular attention on structure flexibility and model interpretability issues. This may provide a basement of a new way to design model based control and diagnosis mechanisms for the complex nonlinear plant.

Comparative Sensitivity Analysis of Muscle Activation Dynamics

PubMed Central

Günther, Michael; Götz, Thomas

2015-01-01

We mathematically compared two models of mammalian striated muscle activation dynamics proposed by Hatze and Zajac. Both models are representative for a broad variety of biomechanical models formulated as ordinary differential equations (ODEs). These models incorporate parameters that directly represent known physiological properties. Other parameters have been introduced to reproduce empirical observations. We used sensitivity analysis to investigate the influence of model parameters on the ODE solutions. In addition, we expanded an existing approach to treating initial conditions as parameters and to calculating second-order sensitivities. Furthermore, we used a global sensitivity analysis approach to include finite ranges of parameter values. Hence, a theoretician striving for model reduction could use the method for identifying particularly low sensitivities to detect superfluous parameters. An experimenter could use it for identifying particularly high sensitivities to improve parameter estimation. Hatze's nonlinear model incorporates some parameters to which activation dynamics is clearly more sensitive than to any parameter in Zajac's linear model. Other than Zajac's model, Hatze's model can, however, reproduce measured shifts in optimal muscle length with varied muscle activity. Accordingly we extracted a specific parameter set for Hatze's model that combines best with a particular muscle force-length relation. PMID:26417379

Multi-day activity scheduling reactions to planned activities and future events in a dynamic model of activity-travel behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijland, Linda; Arentze, Theo; Timmermans, Harry

2014-01-01

Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention in activity-based transport demand modeling so far. However, new dynamic activity-based approaches are being developed at the current moment. The frequency and inflexibility of planned activities and events in activity schedules of individuals indicate the importance of incorporating those pre-planned activities in the new generation of dynamic travel demand models. Elaborating and combining previous work on event-driven activity generation, the aim of this paper is to develop and illustrate an extension of a need-based model of activity generation that takes into account possible influences of pre-planned activities and events. This paper describes the theory and shows the results of simulations of the extension. The simulation was conducted for six different activities, and the parameter values used were consistent with an earlier estimation study. The results show that the model works well and that the influences of the parameters are consistent, logical, and have clear interpretations. These findings offer further evidence of face and construct validity to the suggested modeling approach.

Computational dynamics of soft machines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Haiyan; Tian, Qiang; Liu, Cheng

2017-06-01

Soft machine refers to a kind of mechanical system made of soft materials to complete sophisticated missions, such as handling a fragile object and crawling along a narrow tunnel corner, under low cost control and actuation. Hence, soft machines have raised great challenges to computational dynamics. In this review article, recent studies of the authors on the dynamic modeling, numerical simulation, and experimental validation of soft machines are summarized in the framework of multibody system dynamics. The dynamic modeling approaches are presented first for the geometric nonlinearities of coupled overall motions and large deformations of a soft component, the physical nonlinearities of a soft component made of hyperelastic or elastoplastic materials, and the frictional contacts/impacts of soft components, respectively. Then the computation approach is outlined for the dynamic simulation of soft machines governed by a set of differential-algebraic equations of very high dimensions, with an emphasis on the efficient computations of the nonlinear elastic force vector of finite elements. The validations of the proposed approaches are given via three case studies, including the locomotion of a soft quadrupedal robot, the spinning deployment of a solar sail of a spacecraft, and the deployment of a mesh reflector of a satellite antenna, as well as the corresponding experimental studies. Finally, some remarks are made for future studies.

Coarse-grained component concurrency in Earth system modeling: parallelizing atmospheric radiative transfer in the GFDL AM3 model using the Flexible Modeling System coupling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balaji, V.; Benson, Rusty; Wyman, Bruce; Held, Isaac

2016-10-01

Climate models represent a large variety of processes on a variety of timescales and space scales, a canonical example of multi-physics multi-scale modeling. Current hardware trends, such as Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) and Many Integrated Core (MIC) chips, are based on, at best, marginal increases in clock speed, coupled with vast increases in concurrency, particularly at the fine grain. Multi-physics codes face particular challenges in achieving fine-grained concurrency, as different physics and dynamics components have different computational profiles, and universal solutions are hard to come by. We propose here one approach for multi-physics codes. These codes are typically structured as components interacting via software frameworks. The component structure of a typical Earth system model consists of a hierarchical and recursive tree of components, each representing a different climate process or dynamical system. This recursive structure generally encompasses a modest level of concurrency at the highest level (e.g., atmosphere and ocean on different processor sets) with serial organization underneath. We propose to extend concurrency much further by running more and more lower- and higher-level components in parallel with each other. Each component can further be parallelized on the fine grain, potentially offering a major increase in the scalability of Earth system models. We present here first results from this approach, called coarse-grained component concurrency, or CCC. Within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Flexible Modeling System (FMS), the atmospheric radiative transfer component has been configured to run in parallel with a composite component consisting of every other atmospheric component, including the atmospheric dynamics and all other atmospheric physics components. We will explore the algorithmic challenges involved in such an approach, and present results from such simulations. Plans to achieve even greater levels of coarse-grained concurrency by extending this approach within other components, such as the ocean, will be discussed.

A COMPUTATIONALLY EFFICIENT HYBRID APPROACH FOR DYNAMIC GAS/AEROSOL TRANSFER IN AIR QUALITY MODELS. (R826371C005)

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic mass transfer methods have been developed to better describe the interaction of the aerosol population with semi-volatile species such as nitrate, ammonia, and chloride. Unfortunately, these dynamic methods are computationally expensive. Assumptions are often made to r...

Space-time dynamics of Stem Cell Niches: a unified approach for Plants.

PubMed

Pérez, Maria Del Carmen; López, Alejandro; Padilla, Pablo

2013-06-01

Many complex systems cannot be analyzed using traditional mathematical tools, due to their irreducible nature. This makes it necessary to develop models that can be implemented computationally to simulate their evolution. Examples of these models are cellular automata, evolutionary algorithms, complex networks, agent-based models, symbolic dynamics and dynamical systems techniques. We review some representative approaches to model the stem cell niche in Arabidopsis thaliana and the basic biological mechanisms that underlie its formation and maintenance. We propose a mathematical model based on cellular automata for describing the space-time dynamics of the stem cell niche in the root. By making minimal assumptions on the cell communication process documented in experiments, we classify the basic developmental features of the stem-cell niche, including the basic structural architecture, and suggest that they could be understood as the result of generic mechanisms given by short and long range signals. This could be a first step in understanding why different stem cell niches share similar topologies, not only in plants. Also the fact that this organization is a robust consequence of the way information is being processed by the cells and to some extent independent of the detailed features of the signaling mechanism.

Space-time dynamics of stem cell niches: a unified approach for plants.

PubMed

Pérez, Maria del Carmen; López, Alejandro; Padilla, Pablo

2013-04-02

Many complex systems cannot be analyzed using traditional mathematical tools, due to their irreducible nature. This makes it necessary to develop models that can be implemented computationally to simulate their evolution. Examples of these models are cellular automata, evolutionary algorithms, complex networks, agent-based models, symbolic dynamics and dynamical systems techniques. We review some representative approaches to model the stem cell niche in Arabidopsis thaliana and the basic biological mechanisms that underlie its formation and maintenance. We propose a mathematical model based on cellular automata for describing the space-time dynamics of the stem cell niche in the root. By making minimal assumptions on the cell communication process documented in experiments, we classify the basic developmental features of the stem-cell niche, including the basic structural architecture, and suggest that they could be understood as the result of generic mechanisms given by short and long range signals. This could be a first step in understanding why different stem cell niches share similar topologies, not only in plants. Also the fact that this organization is a robust consequence of the way information is being processed by the cells and to some extent independent of the detailed features of the signaling mechanism.

SEAPODYM-LTL: a parsimonious zooplankton dynamic biomass model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conchon, Anna; Lehodey, Patrick; Gehlen, Marion; Titaud, Olivier; Senina, Inna; Séférian, Roland

2017-04-01

Mesozooplankton organisms are of critical importance for the understanding of early life history of most fish stocks, as well as the nutrient cycles in the ocean. Ongoing climate change and the need for improved approaches to the management of living marine resources has driven recent advances in zooplankton modelling. The classical modeling approach tends to describe the whole biogeochemical and plankton cycle with increasing complexity. We propose here a different and parsimonious zooplankton dynamic biomass model (SEAPODYM-LTL) that is cost efficient and can be advantageously coupled with primary production estimated either from satellite derived ocean color data or biogeochemical models. In addition, the adjoint code of the model is developed allowing a robust optimization approach for estimating the few parameters of the model. In this study, we run the first optimization experiments using a global database of climatological zooplankton biomass data and we make a comparative analysis to assess the importance of resolution and primary production inputs on model fit to observations. We also compare SEAPODYM-LTL outputs to those produced by a more complex biogeochemical model (PISCES) but sharing the same physical forcings.

Concepts and tools for predictive modeling of microbial dynamics.

PubMed

Bernaerts, Kristel; Dens, Els; Vereecken, Karen; Geeraerd, Annemie H; Standaert, Arnout R; Devlieghere, Frank; Debevere, Johan; Van Impe, Jan F

2004-09-01

Description of microbial cell (population) behavior as influenced by dynamically changing environmental conditions intrinsically needs dynamic mathematical models. In the past, major effort has been put into the modeling of microbial growth and inactivation within a constant environment (static models). In the early 1990s, differential equation models (dynamic models) were introduced in the field of predictive microbiology. Here, we present a general dynamic model-building concept describing microbial evolution under dynamic conditions. Starting from an elementary model building block, the model structure can be gradually complexified to incorporate increasing numbers of influencing factors. Based on two case studies, the fundamentals of both macroscopic (population) and microscopic (individual) modeling approaches are revisited. These illustrations deal with the modeling of (i) microbial lag under variable temperature conditions and (ii) interspecies microbial interactions mediated by lactic acid production (product inhibition). Current and future research trends should address the need for (i) more specific measurements at the cell and/or population level, (ii) measurements under dynamic conditions, and (iii) more comprehensive (mechanistically inspired) model structures. In the context of quantitative microbial risk assessment, complexity of the mathematical model must be kept under control. An important challenge for the future is determination of a satisfactory trade-off between predictive power and manageability of predictive microbiology models.

Attitude determination using an adaptive multiple model filtering Scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lam, Quang; Ray, Surendra N.

1995-01-01

Attitude determination has been considered as a permanent topic of active research and perhaps remaining as a forever-lasting interest for spacecraft system designers. Its role is to provide a reference for controls such as pointing the directional antennas or solar panels, stabilizing the spacecraft or maneuvering the spacecraft to a new orbit. Least Square Estimation (LSE) technique was utilized to provide attitude determination for the Nimbus 6 and G. Despite its poor performance (estimation accuracy consideration), LSE was considered as an effective and practical approach to meet the urgent need and requirement back in the 70's. One reason for this poor performance associated with the LSE scheme is the lack of dynamic filtering or 'compensation'. In other words, the scheme is based totally on the measurements and no attempts were made to model the dynamic equations of motion of the spacecraft. We propose an adaptive filtering approach which employs a bank of Kalman filters to perform robust attitude estimation. The proposed approach, whose architecture is depicted, is essentially based on the latest proof on the interactive multiple model design framework to handle the unknown of the system noise characteristics or statistics. The concept fundamentally employs a bank of Kalman filter or submodel, instead of using fixed values for the system noise statistics for each submodel (per operating condition) as the traditional multiple model approach does, we use an on-line dynamic system noise identifier to 'identify' the system noise level (statistics) and update the filter noise statistics using 'live' information from the sensor model. The advanced noise identifier, whose architecture is also shown, is implemented using an advanced system identifier. To insure the robust performance for the proposed advanced system identifier, it is also further reinforced by a learning system which is implemented (in the outer loop) using neural networks to identify other unknown quantities such as spacecraft dynamics parameters, gyro biases, dynamic disturbances, or environment variations.

Attitude determination using an adaptive multiple model filtering Scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Quang; Ray, Surendra N.

1995-05-01

Attitude determination has been considered as a permanent topic of active research and perhaps remaining as a forever-lasting interest for spacecraft system designers. Its role is to provide a reference for controls such as pointing the directional antennas or solar panels, stabilizing the spacecraft or maneuvering the spacecraft to a new orbit. Least Square Estimation (LSE) technique was utilized to provide attitude determination for the Nimbus 6 and G. Despite its poor performance (estimation accuracy consideration), LSE was considered as an effective and practical approach to meet the urgent need and requirement back in the 70's. One reason for this poor performance associated with the LSE scheme is the lack of dynamic filtering or 'compensation'. In other words, the scheme is based totally on the measurements and no attempts were made to model the dynamic equations of motion of the spacecraft. We propose an adaptive filtering approach which employs a bank of Kalman filters to perform robust attitude estimation. The proposed approach, whose architecture is depicted, is essentially based on the latest proof on the interactive multiple model design framework to handle the unknown of the system noise characteristics or statistics. The concept fundamentally employs a bank of Kalman filter or submodel, instead of using fixed values for the system noise statistics for each submodel (per operating condition) as the traditional multiple model approach does, we use an on-line dynamic system noise identifier to 'identify' the system noise level (statistics) and update the filter noise statistics using 'live' information from the sensor model. The advanced noise identifier, whose architecture is also shown, is implemented using an advanced system identifier. To insure the robust performance for the proposed advanced system identifier, it is also further reinforced by a learning system which is implemented (in the outer loop) using neural networks to identify other unknown quantities such as spacecraft dynamics parameters, gyro biases, dynamic disturbances, or environment variations.

Dynamic Reconstruction and Multivariable Control for Force-Actuated, Thin Facesheet Adaptive Optics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grocott, Simon C. O.; Miller, David W.

1997-01-01

The Multiple Mirror Telescope (MMT) under development at the University of Arizona takes a new approach in adaptive optics placing a large (0.65 m) force-actuated, thin facesheet deformable mirror at the secondary of an astronomical telescope, thus reducing the effects of emissivity which are important in IR astronomy. However, The large size of the mirror and low stiffness actuators used drive the natural frequencies of the mirror down into the bandwidth of the atmospheric distortion. Conventional adaptive optics takes a quasi-static approach to controlling the, deformable mirror. However, flexibility within the control bandwidth calls for a new approach to adaptive optics. Dynamic influence functions are used to characterize the influence of each actuator on the surface of the deformable mirror. A linearized model of atmospheric distortion is combined with dynamic influence functions to produce a dynamic reconstructor. This dynamic reconstructor is recognized as an optimal control problem. Solving the optimal control problem for a system with hundreds of actuators and sensors is formidable. Exploiting the circularly symmetric geometry of the mirror, and a suitable model of atmospheric distortion, the control problem is divided into a number of smaller decoupled control problems using circulant matrix theory. A hierarchic control scheme which seeks to emulate the quasi-static control approach that is generally used in adaptive optics is compared to the proposed dynamic reconstruction technique. Although dynamic reconstruction requires somewhat more computational power to implement, it achieves better performance with less power usage, and is less sensitive than the hierarchic technique.

A Generic Modeling Approach to Biomass Dynamics of Sagittaria latifolia and Spartina alterniflora

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

ammonium nitrate pulse of the growth and elemental composition of natural stands of Spartina alterniflora and Juncus roemerianus. American Journal of...calibration values become available. This modelling approach was applied to submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) also (Best and Boyd 2008). The approach is... the models. The DVS is dimensionless and its value increases gradually within a growing season. The development rate (DVR) has the dimension d-1

Sliding Mode Approaches for Robust Control, State Estimation, Secure Communication, and Fault Diagnosis in Nuclear Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ablay, Gunyaz

Using traditional control methods for controller design, parameter estimation and fault diagnosis may lead to poor results with nuclear systems in practice because of approximations and uncertainties in the system models used, possibly resulting in unexpected plant unavailability. This experience has led to an interest in development of robust control, estimation and fault diagnosis methods. One particularly robust approach is the sliding mode control methodology. Sliding mode approaches have been of great interest and importance in industry and engineering in the recent decades due to their potential for producing economic, safe and reliable designs. In order to utilize these advantages, sliding mode approaches are implemented for robust control, state estimation, secure communication and fault diagnosis in nuclear plant systems. In addition, a sliding mode output observer is developed for fault diagnosis in dynamical systems. To validate the effectiveness of the methodologies, several nuclear plant system models are considered for applications, including point reactor kinetics, xenon concentration dynamics, an uncertain pressurizer model, a U-tube steam generator model and a coupled nonlinear nuclear reactor model.

Testing the World with Simulations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Nancy

1983-01-01

Explains the three main concepts of the system dynamics approach to model building (dynamics, feedback, and systems) and the basic steps to problem solving by simulation applicable to all educational levels. Some DYNAMO commands are briefly described. (EAO)

Dynamic design and control of a high-speed pneumatic jet actuator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misyurin, S. Yu; Ivlev, V. I.; Kreinin, G. V.

2017-12-01

Mathematical model of an actuator, consisting of a pneumatic (gas) high-speed jet engine, transfer mechanism, and a control device used for switching the ball valve is worked out. The specific attention was paid to the transition (normalization) of the dynamic model into the dimensionless form. Its dynamic simulation criteria are determined, and dynamics study of an actuator was carried out. The simple control algorithm of relay action with a velocity feedback enabling the valve plug to be turned with a smooth nonstop and continuous approach to the final position is demonstrated

Switching moving boundary models for two-phase flow evaporators and condensers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonilla, Javier; Dormido, Sebastián; Cellier, François E.

2015-03-01

The moving boundary method is an appealing approach for the design, testing and validation of advanced control schemes for evaporators and condensers. When it comes to advanced control strategies, not only accurate but fast dynamic models are required. Moving boundary models are fast low-order dynamic models, and they can describe the dynamic behavior with high accuracy. This paper presents a mathematical formulation based on physical principles for two-phase flow moving boundary evaporator and condenser models which support dynamic switching between all possible flow configurations. The models were implemented in a library using the equation-based object-oriented Modelica language. Several integrity tests in steady-state and transient predictions together with stability tests verified the models. Experimental data from a direct steam generation parabolic-trough solar thermal power plant is used to validate and compare the developed moving boundary models against finite volume models.

System Simulation by Recursive Feedback: Coupling a Set of Stand-Alone Subsystem Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nixon, D. D.

2001-01-01

Conventional construction of digital dynamic system simulations often involves collecting differential equations that model each subsystem, arran g them to a standard form, and obtaining their numerical gin solution as a single coupled, total-system simultaneous set. Simulation by numerical coupling of independent stand-alone subsimulations is a fundamentally different approach that is attractive because, among other things, the architecture naturally facilitates high fidelity, broad scope, and discipline independence. Recursive feedback is defined and discussed as a candidate approach to multidiscipline dynamic system simulation by numerical coupling of self-contained, single-discipline subsystem simulations. A satellite motion example containing three subsystems (orbit dynamics, attitude dynamics, and aerodynamics) has been defined and constructed using this approach. Conventional solution methods are used in the subsystem simulations. Distributed and centralized implementations of coupling have been considered. Numerical results are evaluated by direct comparison with a standard total-system, simultaneous-solution approach.

Kinetics of the chiral phase transition in a linear σ model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wesp, Christian; van Hees, Hendrik; Meistrenko, Alex; Greiner, Carsten

2018-02-01

We study the dynamics of the chiral phase transition in a linear quark-meson σ model using a novel approach based on semiclassical wave-particle duality. The quarks are treated as test particles in a Monte Carlo simulation of elastic collisions and the coupling to the σ meson, which is treated as a classical field, via a kinetic approach motivated by wave-particle duality. The exchange of energy and momentum between particles and fields is described in terms of appropriate Gaussian wave packets. It has been demonstrated that energy-momentum conservation and the principle of detailed balance are fulfilled, and that the dynamics leads to the correct equilibrium limit. First schematic studies of the dynamics of matter produced in heavy-ion collisions are presented.

Systems biology by the rules: hybrid intelligent systems for pathway modeling and discovery.

PubMed

Bosl, William J

2007-02-15

Expert knowledge in journal articles is an important source of data for reconstructing biological pathways and creating new hypotheses. An important need for medical research is to integrate this data with high throughput sources to build useful models that span several scales. Researchers traditionally use mental models of pathways to integrate information and development new hypotheses. Unfortunately, the amount of information is often overwhelming and these are inadequate for predicting the dynamic response of complex pathways. Hierarchical computational models that allow exploration of semi-quantitative dynamics are useful systems biology tools for theoreticians, experimentalists and clinicians and may provide a means for cross-communication. A novel approach for biological pathway modeling based on hybrid intelligent systems or soft computing technologies is presented here. Intelligent hybrid systems, which refers to several related computing methods such as fuzzy logic, neural nets, genetic algorithms, and statistical analysis, has become ubiquitous in engineering applications for complex control system modeling and design. Biological pathways may be considered to be complex control systems, which medicine tries to manipulate to achieve desired results. Thus, hybrid intelligent systems may provide a useful tool for modeling biological system dynamics and computational exploration of new drug targets. A new modeling approach based on these methods is presented in the context of hedgehog regulation of the cell cycle in granule cells. Code and input files can be found at the Bionet website: www.chip.ord/~wbosl/Software/Bionet. This paper presents the algorithmic methods needed for modeling complicated biochemical dynamics using rule-based models to represent expert knowledge in the context of cell cycle regulation and tumor growth. A notable feature of this modeling approach is that it allows biologists to build complex models from their knowledge base without the need to translate that knowledge into mathematical form. Dynamics on several levels, from molecular pathways to tissue growth, are seamlessly integrated. A number of common network motifs are examined and used to build a model of hedgehog regulation of the cell cycle in cerebellar neurons, which is believed to play a key role in the etiology of medulloblastoma, a devastating childhood brain cancer.

Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact assessment of ecosystem services.

PubMed

Arbault, Damien; Rivière, Mylène; Rugani, Benedetto; Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia

2014-02-15

Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved in vitro models for preclinical drug and formulation screening focusing on 2D and 3D skin and cornea constructs.

PubMed

Beißner, Nicole; Bolea Albero, Antonio; Füller, Jendrik; Kellner, Thomas; Lauterboeck, Lothar; Liang, Jinghu; Böl, Markus; Glasmacher, Birgit; Müller-Goymann, Christel C; Reichl, Stephan

2018-05-01

The present overview deals with current approaches for the improvement of in vitro models for preclinical drug and formulation screening which were elaborated in a joint project at the Center of Pharmaceutical Engineering of the TU Braunschweig. Within this project a special focus was laid on the enhancement of skin and cornea models. For this reason, first, a computation-based approach for in silico modeling of dermal cell proliferation and differentiation was developed. The simulation should for example enhance the understanding of the performed 2D in vitro tests on the antiproliferative effect of hyperforin. A second approach aimed at establishing in vivo-like dynamic conditions in in vitro drug absorption studies in contrast to the commonly used static conditions. The reported Dynamic Micro Tissue Engineering System (DynaMiTES) combines the advantages of in vitro cell culture models and microfluidic systems for the emulation of dynamic drug absorption at different physiological barriers and, later, for the investigation of dynamic culture conditions. Finally, cryopreserved shipping was investigated for a human hemicornea construct. As the implementation of a tissue-engineering laboratory is time-consuming and cost-intensive, commercial availability of advanced 3D human tissue is preferred from a variety of companies. However, for shipping purposes cryopreservation is a challenge to maintain the same quality and performance of the tissue in the laboratory of both, the provider and the customer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Responses and Vibration Control of the Transmission Tower-Line System: A State-of-the-Art Review

PubMed Central

Chen, Bo; Guo, Wei-hua; Li, Peng-yun; Xie, Wen-ping

2014-01-01

This paper presented an overview on the dynamic analysis and control of the transmission tower-line system in the past forty years. The challenges and future developing trends in the dynamic analysis and mitigation of the transmission tower-line system under dynamic excitations are also put forward. It also reviews the analytical models and approaches of the transmission tower, transmission lines, and transmission tower-line systems, respectively, which contain the theoretical model, finite element (FE) model and the equivalent model; shows the advances in wind responses of the transmission tower-line system, which contains the dynamic effects under common wind loading, tornado, downburst, and typhoon; and discusses the dynamic responses under earthquake and ice loads, respectively. The vibration control of the transmission tower-line system is also reviewed, which includes the magnetorheological dampers, friction dampers, tuned mass dampers, and pounding tuned mass dampers. PMID:25105161

Development of a dynamic computational model of social cognitive theory.

PubMed

Riley, William T; Martin, Cesar A; Rivera, Daniel E; Hekler, Eric B; Adams, Marc A; Buman, Matthew P; Pavel, Misha; King, Abby C

2016-12-01

Social cognitive theory (SCT) is among the most influential theories of behavior change and has been used as the conceptual basis of health behavior interventions for smoking cessation, weight management, and other health behaviors. SCT and other behavior theories were developed primarily to explain differences between individuals, but explanatory theories of within-person behavioral variability are increasingly needed as new technologies allow for intensive longitudinal measures and interventions adapted from these inputs. These within-person explanatory theoretical applications can be modeled as dynamical systems. SCT constructs, such as reciprocal determinism, are inherently dynamical in nature, but SCT has not been modeled as a dynamical system. This paper describes the development of a dynamical system model of SCT using fluid analogies and control systems principles drawn from engineering. Simulations of this model were performed to assess if the model performed as predicted based on theory and empirical studies of SCT. This initial model generates precise and testable quantitative predictions for future intensive longitudinal research. Dynamic modeling approaches provide a rigorous method for advancing health behavior theory development and refinement and for guiding the development of more potent and efficient interventions.

Potential formulation of sleep dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, A. J. K.; Robinson, P. A.

2009-02-01

A physiologically based model of the mechanisms that control the human sleep-wake cycle is formulated in terms of an equivalent nonconservative mechanical potential. The potential is analytically simplified and reduced to a quartic two-well potential, matching the bifurcation structure of the original model. This yields a dynamics-based model that is analytically simpler and has fewer parameters than the original model, allowing easier fitting to experimental data. This model is first demonstrated to semiquantitatively match the dynamics of the physiologically based model from which it is derived, and is then fitted directly to a set of experimentally derived criteria. These criteria place rigorous constraints on the parameter values, and within these constraints the model is shown to reproduce normal sleep-wake dynamics and recovery from sleep deprivation. Furthermore, this approach enables insights into the dynamics by direct analogies to phenomena in well studied mechanical systems. These include the relation between friction in the mechanical system and the timecourse of neurotransmitter action, and the possible relation between stochastic resonance and napping behavior. The model derived here also serves as a platform for future investigations of sleep-wake phenomena from a dynamical perspective.

Accessing the dynamics of end-grafted flexible polymer chains by atomic force-electrochemical microscopy. Theoretical modeling of the approach curves by the elastic bounded diffusion model and Monte Carlo simulations. Evidence for compression-induced lateral chain escape.

PubMed

Abbou, Jeremy; Anne, Agnès; Demaille, Christophe

2006-11-16

The dynamics of a molecular layer of linear poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) chains of molecular weight 3400, bearing at one end a ferrocene (Fc) label and thiol end-grafted at a low surface coverage onto a gold substrate, is probed using combined atomic force-electrochemical microscopy (AFM-SECM), at the scale of approximately 100 molecules. Force and current approach curves are simultaneously recorded as a force-sensing microelectrode (tip) is inserted within the approximately 10 nm thick, redox labeled, PEG chain layer. Whereas the force approach curve gives access to the structure of the compressed PEG layer, the tip-current, resulting from tip-to-substrate redox cycling of the Fc head of the chain, is controlled by chain dynamics. The elastic bounded diffusion model, which considers the motion of the Fc head as diffusion in a conformational field, complemented by Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, from which the chain conformation can be derived for any degree of confinement, allows the theoretical tip-current approach curve to be calculated. The experimental current approach curve can then be very satisfyingly reproduced by theory, down to a tip-substrate separation of approximately 2 nm, using only one adjustable parameter characterizing the chain dynamics: the effective diffusion coefficient of the chain head. At closer tip-substrate separations, an unpredicted peak is observed in the experimental current approach curve, which is shown to find its origin in a compression-induced escape of the chain from within the narrowing tip-substrate gap. MC simulations provide quantitative support for lateral chain elongation as the escape mechanism.

An Alternative Optimization Model and Robust Experimental Design for the Assignment Scheduling Capability for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (ASC-U) Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

introduces ASC-U’s approach for solving the dynamic UAV allocation problem. 26 Christopher J...18 Figure 6. Assignments Dynamics Example (after) .........................................................20 Figure 7. ASC-U Dynamic Cueing...decisions in order to respond to the dynamic environment they face. Thus, to succeed, the Army’s transformation cannot rely

Multiscale Metabolic Modeling: Dynamic Flux Balance Analysis on a Whole-Plant Scale1[W][OPEN

PubMed Central

Grafahrend-Belau, Eva; Junker, Astrid; Eschenröder, André; Müller, Johannes; Schreiber, Falk; Junker, Björn H.

2013-01-01

Plant metabolism is characterized by a unique complexity on the cellular, tissue, and organ levels. On a whole-plant scale, changing source and sink relations accompanying plant development add another level of complexity to metabolism. With the aim of achieving a spatiotemporal resolution of source-sink interactions in crop plant metabolism, a multiscale metabolic modeling (MMM) approach was applied that integrates static organ-specific models with a whole-plant dynamic model. Allowing for a dynamic flux balance analysis on a whole-plant scale, the MMM approach was used to decipher the metabolic behavior of source and sink organs during the generative phase of the barley (Hordeum vulgare) plant. It reveals a sink-to-source shift of the barley stem caused by the senescence-related decrease in leaf source capacity, which is not sufficient to meet the nutrient requirements of sink organs such as the growing seed. The MMM platform represents a novel approach for the in silico analysis of metabolism on a whole-plant level, allowing for a systemic, spatiotemporally resolved understanding of metabolic processes involved in carbon partitioning, thus providing a novel tool for studying yield stability and crop improvement. PMID:23926077

Multilattice sampling strategies for region of interest dynamic MRI.

PubMed

Rilling, Gabriel; Tao, Yuehui; Marshall, Ian; Davies, Mike E

2013-08-01

A multilattice sampling approach is proposed for dynamic MRI with Cartesian trajectories. It relies on the use of sampling patterns composed of several different lattices and exploits an image model where only some parts of the image are dynamic, whereas the rest is assumed static. Given the parameters of such an image model, the methodology followed for the design of a multilattice sampling pattern adapted to the model is described. The multi-lattice approach is compared to single-lattice sampling, as used by traditional acceleration methods such as UNFOLD (UNaliasing by Fourier-Encoding the Overlaps using the temporal Dimension) or k-t BLAST, and random sampling used by modern compressed sensing-based methods. On the considered image model, it allows more flexibility and higher accelerations than lattice sampling and better performance than random sampling. The method is illustrated on a phase-contrast carotid blood velocity mapping MR experiment. Combining the multilattice approach with the KEYHOLE technique allows up to 12× acceleration factors. Simulation and in vivo undersampling results validate the method. Compared to lattice and random sampling, multilattice sampling provides significant gains at high acceleration factors. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Further steps in the modeling of behavioural crowd dynamics, good news for safe handling. Comment on "Human behaviours in evacuation crowd dynamics: From modelling to "big data" toward crisis management" by Nicola Bellomo et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knopoff, Damián A.

2016-09-01

The recent review paper [4] constitutes a valuable contribution on the understanding, modeling and simulation of crowd dynamics in extreme situations. It provides a very comprehensive revision about the complexity features of the system under consideration, scaling and the consequent justification of the used methods. In particular, macro and microscopic models have so far been used to model crowd dynamics [9] and authors appropriately explain that working at the mesoscale is a good choice to deal with the heterogeneous behaviour of walkers as well as with the difficulty of their deterministic identification. In this way, methods based on the kinetic theory and statistical dynamics are employed, more precisely the so-called kinetic theory for active particles [7]. This approach has successfully been applied in the modeling of several complex dynamics, with recent applications to learning [2,8] that constitutes the key to understand communication and is of great importance in social dynamics and behavioral sciences.

A hybrid approach to modeling and control of vehicle height for electronically controlled air suspension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiaoqiang; Cai, Yingfeng; Wang, Shaohua; Liu, Yanling; Chen, Long

2016-01-01

The control problems associated with vehicle height adjustment of electronically controlled air suspension (ECAS) still pose theoretical challenges for researchers, which manifest themselves in the publications on this subject over the last years. This paper deals with modeling and control of a vehicle height adjustment system for ECAS, which is an example of a hybrid dynamical system due to the coexistence and coupling of continuous variables and discrete events. A mixed logical dynamical (MLD) modeling approach is chosen for capturing enough details of the vehicle height adjustment process. The hybrid dynamic model is constructed on the basis of some assumptions and piecewise linear approximation for components nonlinearities. Then, the on-off statuses of solenoid valves and the piecewise approximation process are described by propositional logic, and the hybrid system is transformed into the set of linear mixed-integer equalities and inequalities, denoted as MLD model, automatically by HYSDEL. Using this model, a hybrid model predictive controller (HMPC) is tuned based on online mixed-integer quadratic optimization (MIQP). Two different scenarios are considered in the simulation, whose results verify the height adjustment effectiveness of the proposed approach. Explicit solutions of the controller are computed to control the vehicle height adjustment system in realtime using an offline multi-parametric programming technology (MPT), thus convert the controller into an equivalent explicit piecewise affine form. Finally, bench experiments for vehicle height lifting, holding and lowering procedures are conducted, which demonstrate that the HMPC can adjust the vehicle height by controlling the on-off statuses of solenoid valves directly. This research proposes a new modeling and control method for vehicle height adjustment of ECAS, which leads to a closed-loop system with favorable dynamical properties.

Dynamics of Coupled Electron-Boson Systems with the Multiple Davydov D1 Ansatz and the Generalized Coherent State.

PubMed

Chen, Lipeng; Borrelli, Raffaele; Zhao, Yang

2017-11-22

The dynamics of a coupled electron-boson system is investigated by employing a multitude of the Davydov D 1 trial states, also known as the multi-D 1 Ansatz, and a second trial state based on a superposition of the time-dependent generalized coherent state (GCS Ansatz). The two Ansätze are applied to study population dynamics in the spin-boson model and the Holstein molecular crystal model, and a detailed comparison with numerically exact results obtained by the (multilayer) multiconfiguration time-dependent Hartree method and the hierarchy equations of motion approach is drawn. It is found that the two methodologies proposed here have significantly improved over that with the single D 1 Ansatz, yielding quantitatively accurate results even in the critical cases of large energy biases and large transfer integrals. The two methodologies provide new effective tools for accurate, efficient simulation of many-body quantum dynamics thanks to a relatively small number of parameters which characterize the electron-nuclear wave functions. The wave-function-based approaches are capable of tracking explicitly detailed bosonic dynamics, which is absent by construct in approaches based on the reduced density matrix. The efficiency and flexibility of our methods are also advantages as compared with numerically exact approaches such as QUAPI and HEOM, especially at low temperatures and in the strong coupling regime.

Capital, population and urban patterns.

PubMed

Zhang, W

1994-04-01

The author develops an approach to urban dynamics with endogenous capital and population growth, synthesizing the Alonso location model, the two-sector neoclassical growth model, and endogenous population theory. A dynamic model for an isolated island economy with endogenous capital, population, and residential structure is developed on the basis of Alonso's residential model and the two-sector neoclassical growth model. The model describes the interdependence between residential structure, economic growth, population growth, and economic structure over time and space. It has a unique long-run equilibrium, which may be either stable or unstable, depending upon the population dynamics. Applying the Hopf theorem, the author also shows that when the system is unstable, the economic geography exhibits permanent endogenous oscillations.

A hierarchical approach for simulating northern forest dynamics

Treesearch

Don C. Bragg; David W. Roberts; Thomas R. Crow

2004-01-01

Complexity in ecological systems has challenged forest simulation modelers for years, resulting in a number of approaches with varying degrees of success. Arguments in favor of hierarchical modeling are made, especially for considering a complex environmental issue like widespread eastern hemlock regeneration failure. We present the philosophy and basic framework for...

A Dynamic Process Model for Optimizing the Hospital Environment Cash-Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pater, Flavius; Rosu, Serban

2011-09-01

In this article is presented a new approach to some fundamental techniques of solving dynamic programming problems with the use of functional equations. We will analyze the problem of minimizing the cost of treatment in a hospital environment. Mathematical modeling of this process leads to an optimal control problem with a finite horizon.

Boreal soil carbon dynamics under a changing climate: a model inversion approach

Treesearch

Zhaosheng Fan; Jason C. Neff; Jennifer W. Harden; Kimberly P. Wickland

2008-01-01

Several fundamental but important factors controlling the feedback of boreal organic carbon (OC) to climate change were examined using a mechanistic model of soil OC dynamics, including the combined effects of temperature and moisture on the decomposition of OC and the factors controlling carbon quality and decomposition with depth. To estimate decomposition rates and...

Multistate modeling of habitat dynamics: Factors affecting Florida scrub transition probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breininger, D.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Duncan, B.W.; Stolen, Eric D.; Carter, G.M.; Hunt, D.K.; Drese, J.H.

2010-01-01

Many ecosystems are influenced by disturbances that create specific successional states and habitat structures that species need to persist. Estimating transition probabilities between habitat states and modeling the factors that influence such transitions have many applications for investigating and managing disturbance-prone ecosystems. We identify the correspondence between multistate capture-recapture models and Markov models of habitat dynamics. We exploit this correspondence by fitting and comparing competing models of different ecological covariates affecting habitat transition probabilities in Florida scrub and flatwoods, a habitat important to many unique plants and animals. We subdivided a large scrub and flatwoods ecosystem along central Florida's Atlantic coast into 10-ha grid cells, which approximated average territory size of the threatened Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens), a management indicator species. We used 1.0-m resolution aerial imagery for 1994, 1999, and 2004 to classify grid cells into four habitat quality states that were directly related to Florida Scrub-Jay source-sink dynamics and management decision making. Results showed that static site features related to fire propagation (vegetation type, edges) and temporally varying disturbances (fires, mechanical cutting) best explained transition probabilities. Results indicated that much of the scrub and flatwoods ecosystem was resistant to moving from a degraded state to a desired state without mechanical cutting, an expensive restoration tool. We used habitat models parameterized with the estimated transition probabilities to investigate the consequences of alternative management scenarios on future habitat dynamics. We recommend this multistate modeling approach as being broadly applicable for studying ecosystem, land cover, or habitat dynamics. The approach provides maximum-likelihood estimates of transition parameters, including precision measures, and can be used to assess evidence among competing ecological models that describe system dynamics. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Can longitudinal generalized estimating equation models distinguish network influence and homophily? An agent-based modeling approach to measurement characteristics.

PubMed

Sauser Zachrison, Kori; Iwashyna, Theodore J; Gebremariam, Achamyeleh; Hutchins, Meghan; Lee, Joyce M

2016-12-28

Connected individuals (or nodes) in a network are more likely to be similar than two randomly selected nodes due to homophily and/or network influence. Distinguishing between these two influences is an important goal in network analysis, and generalized estimating equation (GEE) analyses of longitudinal dyadic network data are an attractive approach. It is not known to what extent such regressions can accurately extract underlying data generating processes. Therefore our primary objective is to determine to what extent, and under what conditions, does the GEE-approach recreate the actual dynamics in an agent-based model. We generated simulated cohorts with pre-specified network characteristics and attachments in both static and dynamic networks, and we varied the presence of homophily and network influence. We then used statistical regression and examined the GEE model performance in each cohort to determine whether the model was able to detect the presence of homophily and network influence. In cohorts with both static and dynamic networks, we find that the GEE models have excellent sensitivity and reasonable specificity for determining the presence or absence of network influence, but little ability to distinguish whether or not homophily is present. The GEE models are a valuable tool to examine for the presence of network influence in longitudinal data, but are quite limited with respect to homophily.

Deflection Analysis of the Space Shuttle External Tank Door Drive Mechanism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tosto, Michael A.; Trieu, Bo C.; Evernden, Brent A.; Hope, Drew J.; Wong, Kenneth A.; Lindberg, Robert E.

2008-01-01

Upon observing an abnormal closure of the Space Shuttle s External Tank Doors (ETD), a dynamic model was created in MSC/ADAMS to conduct deflection analyses of the Door Drive Mechanism (DDM). For a similar analysis, the traditional approach would be to construct a full finite element model of the mechanism. The purpose of this paper is to describe an alternative approach that models the flexibility of the DDM using a lumped parameter approximation to capture the compliance of individual parts within the drive linkage. This approach allows for rapid construction of a dynamic model in a time-critical setting, while still retaining the appropriate equivalent stiffness of each linkage component. As a validation of these equivalent stiffnesses, finite element analysis (FEA) was used to iteratively update the model towards convergence. Following this analysis, deflections recovered from the dynamic model can be used to calculate stress and classify each component s deformation as either elastic or plastic. Based on the modeling assumptions used in this analysis and the maximum input forcing condition, two components in the DDM show a factor of safety less than or equal to 0.5. However, to accurately evaluate the induced stresses, additional mechanism rigging information would be necessary to characterize the input forcing conditions. This information would also allow for the classification of stresses as either elastic or plastic.

Parameterized Linear Longitudinal Airship Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulczycki, Eric; Elfes, Alberto; Bayard, David; Quadrelli, Marco; Johnson, Joseph

2010-01-01

A parameterized linear mathematical model of the longitudinal dynamics of an airship is undergoing development. This model is intended to be used in designing control systems for future airships that would operate in the atmospheres of Earth and remote planets. Heretofore, the development of linearized models of the longitudinal dynamics of airships has been costly in that it has been necessary to perform extensive flight testing and to use system-identification techniques to construct models that fit the flight-test data. The present model is a generic one that can be relatively easily specialized to approximate the dynamics of specific airships at specific operating points, without need for further system identification, and with significantly less flight testing. The approach taken in the present development is to merge the linearized dynamical equations of an airship with techniques for estimation of aircraft stability derivatives, and to thereby make it possible to construct a linearized dynamical model of the longitudinal dynamics of a specific airship from geometric and aerodynamic data pertaining to that airship. (It is also planned to develop a model of the lateral dynamics by use of the same methods.) All of the aerodynamic data needed to construct the model of a specific airship can be obtained from wind-tunnel testing and computational fluid dynamics

Optimization of a hydrodynamic separator using a multiscale computational fluid dynamics approach.

PubMed

Schmitt, Vivien; Dufresne, Matthieu; Vazquez, Jose; Fischer, Martin; Morin, Antoine

2013-01-01

This article deals with the optimization of a hydrodynamic separator working on the tangential separation mechanism along a screen. The aim of this study is to optimize the shape of the device to avoid clogging. A multiscale approach is used. This methodology combines measurements and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A local model enables us to observe the different phenomena occurring at the orifice scale, which shows the potential of expanded metal screens. A global model is used to simulate the flow within the device using a conceptual model of the screen (porous wall). After validation against the experimental measurements, the global model was used to investigate the influence of deflectors and disk plates in the structure.

Didactical suggestion for a Dynamic Hybrid Intelligent e-Learning Environment (DHILE) applying the PENTHA ID Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

dall'Acqua, Luisa

2011-08-01

The teleology of our research is to propose a solution to the request of "innovative, creative teaching", proposing a methodology to educate creative Students in a society characterized by multiple reference points and hyper dynamic knowledge, continuously subject to reviews and discussions. We apply a multi-prospective Instructional Design Model (PENTHA ID Model), defined and developed by our research group, which adopts a hybrid pedagogical approach, consisting of elements of didactical connectivism intertwined with aspects of social constructivism and enactivism. The contribution proposes an e-course structure and approach, applying the theoretical design principles of the above mentioned ID Model, describing methods, techniques, technologies and assessment criteria for the definition of lesson modes in an e-course.

RELATING ACCUMULATOR MODEL PARAMETERS AND NEURAL DYNAMICS

PubMed Central

Purcell, Braden A.; Palmeri, Thomas J.

2016-01-01

Accumulator models explain decision-making as an accumulation of evidence to a response threshold. Specific model parameters are associated with specific model mechanisms, such as the time when accumulation begins, the average rate of evidence accumulation, and the threshold. These mechanisms determine both the within-trial dynamics of evidence accumulation and the predicted behavior. Cognitive modelers usually infer what mechanisms vary during decision-making by seeing what parameters vary when a model is fitted to observed behavior. The recent identification of neural activity with evidence accumulation suggests that it may be possible to directly infer what mechanisms vary from an analysis of how neural dynamics vary. However, evidence accumulation is often noisy, and noise complicates the relationship between accumulator dynamics and the underlying mechanisms leading to those dynamics. To understand what kinds of inferences can be made about decision-making mechanisms based on measures of neural dynamics, we measured simulated accumulator model dynamics while systematically varying model parameters. In some cases, decision- making mechanisms can be directly inferred from dynamics, allowing us to distinguish between models that make identical behavioral predictions. In other cases, however, different parameterized mechanisms produce surprisingly similar dynamics, limiting the inferences that can be made based on measuring dynamics alone. Analyzing neural dynamics can provide a powerful tool to resolve model mimicry at the behavioral level, but we caution against drawing inferences based solely on neural analyses. Instead, simultaneous modeling of behavior and neural dynamics provides the most powerful approach to understand decision-making and likely other aspects of cognition and perception. PMID:28392584

Dynamics of internal models in game players

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taiji, Makoto; Ikegami, Takashi

1999-10-01

A new approach for the study of social games and communications is proposed. Games are simulated between cognitive players who build the opponent’s internal model and decide their next strategy from predictions based on the model. In this paper, internal models are constructed by the recurrent neural network (RNN), and the iterated prisoner’s dilemma game is performed. The RNN allows us to express the internal model in a geometrical shape. The complicated transients of actions are observed before the stable mutually defecting equilibrium is reached. During the transients, the model shape also becomes complicated and often experiences chaotic changes. These new chaotic dynamics of internal models reflect the dynamical and high-dimensional rugged landscape of the internal model space.

Dynamic optimization of metabolic networks coupled with gene expression.

PubMed

Waldherr, Steffen; Oyarzún, Diego A; Bockmayr, Alexander

2015-01-21

The regulation of metabolic activity by tuning enzyme expression levels is crucial to sustain cellular growth in changing environments. Metabolic networks are often studied at steady state using constraint-based models and optimization techniques. However, metabolic adaptations driven by changes in gene expression cannot be analyzed by steady state models, as these do not account for temporal changes in biomass composition. Here we present a dynamic optimization framework that integrates the metabolic network with the dynamics of biomass production and composition. An approximation by a timescale separation leads to a coupled model of quasi-steady state constraints on the metabolic reactions, and differential equations for the substrate concentrations and biomass composition. We propose a dynamic optimization approach to determine reaction fluxes for this model, explicitly taking into account enzyme production costs and enzymatic capacity. In contrast to the established dynamic flux balance analysis, our approach allows predicting dynamic changes in both the metabolic fluxes and the biomass composition during metabolic adaptations. Discretization of the optimization problems leads to a linear program that can be efficiently solved. We applied our algorithm in two case studies: a minimal nutrient uptake network, and an abstraction of core metabolic processes in bacteria. In the minimal model, we show that the optimized uptake rates reproduce the empirical Monod growth for bacterial cultures. For the network of core metabolic processes, the dynamic optimization algorithm predicted commonly observed metabolic adaptations, such as a diauxic switch with a preference ranking for different nutrients, re-utilization of waste products after depletion of the original substrate, and metabolic adaptation to an impending nutrient depletion. These examples illustrate how dynamic adaptations of enzyme expression can be predicted solely from an optimization principle. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A COMPARISON OF STATIC AND DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION MUSCLE FORCE PREDICTIONS DURING WHEELCHAIR PROPULSION

PubMed Central

Morrow, Melissa M.; Rankin, Jeffery W.; Neptune, Richard R.; Kaufman, Kenton R.

2014-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to compare static and dynamic optimization muscle force and work predictions during the push phase of wheelchair propulsion. A secondary purpose was to compare the differences in predicted shoulder and elbow kinetics and kinematics and handrim forces. The forward dynamics simulation minimized differences between simulated and experimental data (obtained from 10 manual wheelchair users) and muscle co-contraction. For direct comparison between models, the shoulder and elbow muscle moment arms and net joint moments from the dynamic optimization were used as inputs into the static optimization routine. RMS errors between model predictions were calculated to quantify model agreement. There was a wide range of individual muscle force agreement that spanned from poor (26.4 % Fmax error in the middle deltoid) to good (6.4 % Fmax error in the anterior deltoid) in the prime movers of the shoulder. The predicted muscle forces from the static optimization were sufficient to create the appropriate motion and joint moments at the shoulder for the push phase of wheelchair propulsion, but showed deviations in the elbow moment, pronation-supination motion and hand rim forces. These results suggest the static approach does not produce results similar enough to be a replacement for forward dynamics simulations, and care should be taken in choosing the appropriate method for a specific task and set of constraints. Dynamic optimization modeling approaches may be required for motions that are greatly influenced by muscle activation dynamics or that require significant co-contraction. PMID:25282075

Control of Crazyflie nano quadcopter using Simulink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopabhat Madhusudhan, Meghana

This thesis focuses on developing a mathematical model in Simulink to Crazyflie, an open source platform. Attitude, altitude and position controllers of a Crazyflie are designed in the mathematical model. The mathematical model is developed based on the quadcopter system dynamics using a non-linear approach. The parameters of translational and rotational dynamics of the quadcopter system are linearized and tuned individually. The tuned attitude and altitude controllers from the mathematical model are implemented on real time Crazyflie Simulink model to achieve autonomous and controlled flight.

A Comparison of Three Approaches to Model Human Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmius, Joel; Persson-Slumpi, Thomas

2010-11-01

One way of studying social processes is through the use of simulations. The use of simulations for this purpose has been established as its own field, social simulations, and has been used for studying a variety of phenomena. A simulation of a social setting can serve as an aid for thinking about that social setting, and for experimenting with different parameters and studying the outcomes caused by them. When using the simulation as an aid for thinking and experimenting, the chosen simulation approach will implicitly steer the simulationist towards thinking in a certain fashion in order to fit the model. To study the implications of model choice on the understanding of a setting where human anticipation comes into play, a simulation scenario of a coffee room was constructed using three different simulation approaches: Cellular Automata, Systems Dynamics and Agent-based modeling. The practical implementations of the models were done in three different simulation packages: Stella for Systems Dynamic, CaFun for Cellular automata and SesAM for Agent-based modeling. The models were evaluated both using Randers' criteria for model evaluation, and through introspection where the authors reflected upon how their understanding of the scenario was steered through the model choice. Further the software used for implementing the simulation models was evaluated, and practical considerations for the choice of software package are listed. It is concluded that the models have very different strengths. The Agent-based modeling approach offers the most intuitive support for thinking about and modeling a social setting where the behavior of the individual is in focus. The Systems Dynamics model would be preferable in situations where populations and large groups would be studied as wholes, but where individual behavior is of less concern. The Cellular Automata models would be preferable where processes need to be studied from the basis of a small set of very simple rules. It is further concluded that in most social simulation settings the Agent-based modeling approach would be the probable choice. This since the other models does not offer much in the way of supporting the modeling of the anticipatory behavior of humans acting in an organization.

Universal model for collective access patterns in the Internet traffic dynamics: A superstatistical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamazian, A.; Nguyen, V. D.; Markelov, O. A.; Bogachev, M. I.

2016-07-01

We suggest a universal phenomenological description for the collective access patterns in the Internet traffic dynamics both at local and wide area network levels that takes into account erratic fluctuations imposed by cooperative user behaviour. Our description is based on the superstatistical approach and leads to the q-exponential inter-session time and session size distributions that are also in perfect agreement with empirical observations. The validity of the proposed description is confirmed explicitly by the analysis of complete 10-day traffic traces from the WIDE backbone link and from the local campus area network downlink from the Internet Service Provider. Remarkably, the same functional forms have been observed in the historic access patterns from single WWW servers. The suggested approach effectively accounts for the complex interplay of both “calm” and “bursty” user access patterns within a single-model setting. It also provides average sojourn time estimates with reasonable accuracy, as indicated by the queuing system performance simulation, this way largely overcoming the failure of Poisson modelling of the Internet traffic dynamics.

Aeroservoelastic Modeling of Body Freedom Flutter for Control System Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ouellette, Jeffrey

2017-01-01

One of the most severe forms of coupling between aeroelasticity and flight dynamics is an instability called freedom flutter. The existing tools often assume relatively weak coupling, and are therefore unable to accurately model body freedom flutter. Because the existing tools were developed from traditional flutter analysis models, inconsistencies in the final models are not compatible with control system design tools. To resolve these issues, a number of small, but significant changes have been made to the existing approaches. A frequency domain transformation is used with the unsteady aerodynamics to ensure a more physically consistent stability axis rational function approximation of the unsteady aerodynamic model. The aerodynamic model is augmented with additional terms to account for limitations of the baseline unsteady aerodynamic model and to account for the gravity forces. An assumed modes method is used for the structural model to ensure a consistent definition of the aircraft states across the flight envelope. The X-56A stiff wing flight-test data were used to validate the current modeling approach. The flight-test data does not show body-freedom flutter, but does show coupling between the flight dynamics and the aeroelastic dynamics and the effects of the fuel weight.

Dynamics and Predictability of The Eta Regional Model: The Role of Domain Size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vannitsem, S.; Chomé, F.; Nicolis, C.

This paper investigates the dynamical properties of the Eta model, a state-of-the- art nested limited-area model, following the approach previously developed by the present authors. It is first shown that the intrinsic dynamics of the model depends crucially on the size of the domain, with a non-chaotic behavior for small domains, supporting earlier findings on the absence of sensitivity to the initial conditions in these models. The quality of the predictions of several Eta model versions differing by their domain size is next evaluated and compared with the Avn analyses on a targeted region, centered on France. Contrary to what is usually taken for granted, a non-trivial relation between predictability and domain size is found, the best model versions be- ing the ones integrated on the smallest and the largest domain sizes. An explanation in connection with the intrinsic dynamics of the model is advanced.

A Complex-Valued Firing-Rate Model That Approximates the Dynamics of Spiking Networks

PubMed Central

Schaffer, Evan S.; Ostojic, Srdjan; Abbott, L. F.

2013-01-01

Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons. PMID:24204236

Coarse-Graining of Polymer Dynamics via Energy Renormalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Wenjie; Song, Jake; Phelan, Frederick; Douglas, Jack; Keten, Sinan

The computational prediction of the properties of polymeric materials to serve the needs of materials design and prediction of their performance is a grand challenge due to the prohibitive computational times of all-atomistic (AA) simulations. Coarse-grained (CG) modeling is an essential strategy for making progress on this problem. While there has been intense activity in this area, effective methods of coarse-graining have been slow to develop. Our approach to this fundamental problem starts from the observation that integrating out degrees of freedom of the AA model leads to a strong modification of the configurational entropy and cohesive interaction. Based on this observation, we propose a temperature-dependent systematic renormalization of the cohesive interaction in the CG modeling to recover the thermodynamic modifications in the system and the dynamics of the AA model. Here, we show that this energy renormalization approach to CG can faithfully estimate the diffusive, segmental and glassy dynamics of the AA model over a large temperature range spanning from the Arrhenius melt to the non-equilibrium glassy states. Our proposed CG strategy offers a promising strategy for developing thermodynamically consistent CG models with temperature transferability.