The importance of planetary rotation period for ocean heat transport.

PubMed

Cullum, J; Stevens, D; Joshi, M

2014-08-01

The climate and, hence, potential habitability of a planet crucially depends on how its atmospheric and ocean circulation transports heat from warmer to cooler regions. However, previous studies of planetary climate have concentrated on modeling the dynamics of atmospheres, while dramatically simplifying the treatment of oceans, which neglects or misrepresents the effect of the ocean in the total heat transport. Even the majority of studies with a dynamic ocean have used a simple so-called aquaplanet that has no continental barriers, which is a configuration that dramatically changes the ocean dynamics. Here, the significance of the response of poleward ocean heat transport to planetary rotation period is shown with a simple meridional barrier--the simplest representation of any continental configuration. The poleward ocean heat transport increases significantly as the planetary rotation period is increased. The peak heat transport more than doubles when the rotation period is increased by a factor of ten. There are also significant changes to ocean temperature at depth, with implications for the carbon cycle. There is strong agreement between the model results and a scale analysis of the governing equations. This result highlights the importance of both planetary rotation period and the ocean circulation when considering planetary habitability.

iMarNet: an ocean biogeochemistry model inter-comparison project within a common physical ocean modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, L.; Yool, A.; Allen, J. I.; Anderson, T. R.; Barciela, R.; Buitenhuis, E. T.; Butenschön, M.; Enright, C.; Halloran, P. R.; Le Quéré, C.; de Mora, L.; Racault, M.-F.; Sinha, B.; Totterdell, I. J.; Cox, P. M.

2014-07-01

Ocean biogeochemistry (OBGC) models span a wide range of complexities from highly simplified, nutrient-restoring schemes, through nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) models that crudely represent the marine biota, through to models that represent a broader trophic structure by grouping organisms as plankton functional types (PFT) based on their biogeochemical role (Dynamic Green Ocean Models; DGOM) and ecosystem models which group organisms by ecological function and trait. OBGC models are now integral components of Earth System Models (ESMs), but they compete for computing resources with higher resolution dynamical setups and with other components such as atmospheric chemistry and terrestrial vegetation schemes. As such, the choice of OBGC in ESMs needs to balance model complexity and realism alongside relative computing cost. Here, we present an inter-comparison of six OBGC models that were candidates for implementation within the next UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). The models cover a large range of biological complexity (from 7 to 57 tracers) but all include representations of at least the nitrogen, carbon, alkalinity and oxygen cycles. Each OBGC model was coupled to the Nucleus for the European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean general circulation model (GCM), and results from physically identical hindcast simulations were compared. Model skill was evaluated for biogeochemical metrics of global-scale bulk properties using conventional statistical techniques. The computing cost of each model was also measured in standardised tests run at two resource levels. No model is shown to consistently outperform or underperform all other models across all metrics. Nonetheless, the simpler models that are easier to tune are broadly closer to observations across a number of fields, and thus offer a high-efficiency option for ESMs that prioritise high resolution climate dynamics. However, simpler models provide limited insight into more complex marine biogeochemical processes and ecosystem pathways, and a parallel approach of low resolution climate dynamics and high complexity biogeochemistry is desirable in order to provide additional insights into biogeochemistry-climate interactions.

iMarNet: an ocean biogeochemistry model intercomparison project within a common physical ocean modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, L.; Yool, A.; Allen, J. I.; Anderson, T. R.; Barciela, R.; Buitenhuis, E. T.; Butenschön, M.; Enright, C.; Halloran, P. R.; Le Quéré, C.; de Mora, L.; Racault, M.-F.; Sinha, B.; Totterdell, I. J.; Cox, P. M.

2014-12-01

Ocean biogeochemistry (OBGC) models span a wide variety of complexities, including highly simplified nutrient-restoring schemes, nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) models that crudely represent the marine biota, models that represent a broader trophic structure by grouping organisms as plankton functional types (PFTs) based on their biogeochemical role (dynamic green ocean models) and ecosystem models that group organisms by ecological function and trait. OBGC models are now integral components of Earth system models (ESMs), but they compete for computing resources with higher resolution dynamical setups and with other components such as atmospheric chemistry and terrestrial vegetation schemes. As such, the choice of OBGC in ESMs needs to balance model complexity and realism alongside relative computing cost. Here we present an intercomparison of six OBGC models that were candidates for implementation within the next UK Earth system model (UKESM1). The models cover a large range of biological complexity (from 7 to 57 tracers) but all include representations of at least the nitrogen, carbon, alkalinity and oxygen cycles. Each OBGC model was coupled to the ocean general circulation model Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and results from physically identical hindcast simulations were compared. Model skill was evaluated for biogeochemical metrics of global-scale bulk properties using conventional statistical techniques. The computing cost of each model was also measured in standardised tests run at two resource levels. No model is shown to consistently outperform all other models across all metrics. Nonetheless, the simpler models are broadly closer to observations across a number of fields and thus offer a high-efficiency option for ESMs that prioritise high-resolution climate dynamics. However, simpler models provide limited insight into more complex marine biogeochemical processes and ecosystem pathways, and a parallel approach of low-resolution climate dynamics and high-complexity biogeochemistry is desirable in order to provide additional insights into biogeochemistry-climate interactions.

An Integrated Assessment Model for Helping the United States Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) Fishery Plan Ahead for Ocean Acidification and Warming

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Ocean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean acidification on sea scallops is also needed. PMID:25945497

An Integrated Assessment Model for Helping the United States Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) Fishery Plan Ahead for Ocean Acidification and Warming.

PubMed

Cooley, Sarah R; Rheuban, Jennie E; Hart, Deborah R; Luu, Victoria; Glover, David M; Hare, Jonathan A; Doney, Scott C

2015-01-01

Ocean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean acidification on sea scallops is also needed.

Reconstruction of Jakobshavn Isbrae's calving dynamics from 1985 to 2017 and sensitivity to future ocean forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bondzio, J. H.; Morlighem, M.; Seroussi, H. L.

2017-12-01

Oceanic forcing is likely to have triggered the breakup of Jakobshavn Isbræ's floating ice tongue in the late 1990s, which led to ongoing dynamic changes such as widespread flow acceleration and mass loss. Our understanding of the link between ice dynamics, oceanic forcing, and calving is limited, yet crucial for prognostic simulations of Jakobshavn Isbræ. Here, we first reconstruct Jakobshavn's calving dynamics from 1985 to 2017, by relying on the model from Bondzio et al. 2017, but with a freely evolving ice front. We test different calving rate parameterizations implemented in the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and determine the best law by comparing the modeled retreat to observations. We then identify the controls on calving rate and ice front retreat by varying the submarine melting rate and frontal melt rates as a function of subglacial water discharge and ocean thermal forcing. This sensitivity analysis is an important step toward performing prognostic simulations of JI and provides pathways for future data acquisition.

An Isopycnal Box Model with predictive deep-ocean structure for biogeochemical cycling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, Philip

2012-07-01

To simulate global ocean biogeochemical tracer budgets a model must accurately determine both the volume and surface origins of each water-mass. Water-mass volumes are dynamically linked to the ocean circulation in General Circulation Models, but at the cost of high computational load. In computationally efficient Box Models the water-mass volumes are simply prescribed and do not vary when the circulation transport rates or water mass densities are perturbed. A new computationally efficient Isopycnal Box Model is presented in which the sub-surface box volumes are internally calculated from the prescribed circulation using a diffusive conceptual model of the thermocline, in which upwelling of cold dense water is balanced by a downward diffusion of heat. The volumes of the sub-surface boxes are set so that the density stratification satisfies an assumed link between diapycnal diffusivity, κd, and buoyancy frequency, N: κd = c/(Nα), where c and α are user prescribed parameters. In contrast to conventional Box Models, the volumes of the sub-surface ocean boxes in the Isopycnal Box Model are dynamically linked to circulation, and automatically respond to circulation perturbations. This dynamical link allows an important facet of ocean biogeochemical cycling to be simulated in a highly computationally efficient model framework.

Crustal control of dissipative ocean tides in Enceladus and other icy moons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beuthe, Mikael

2016-12-01

Could tidal dissipation within Enceladus' subsurface ocean account for the observed heat flow? Earthlike models of dynamical tides give no definitive answer because they neglect the influence of the crust. I propose here the first model of dissipative tides in a subsurface ocean, by combining the Laplace Tidal Equations with the membrane approach. For the first time, it is possible to compute tidal dissipation rates within the crust, ocean, and mantle in one go. I show that oceanic dissipation is strongly reduced by the crustal constraint, and thus contributes little to Enceladus' present heat budget. Tidal resonances could have played a role in a forming or freezing ocean less than 100 m deep. The model is general: it applies to all icy satellites with a thin crust and a shallow ocean. Scaling rules relate the resonances and dissipation rate of a subsurface ocean to the ones of a surface ocean. If the ocean has low viscosity, the westward obliquity tide does not move the crust. Therefore, crustal dissipation due to dynamical obliquity tides can differ from the static prediction by up to a factor of two.

Subsurface Ocean Tides in Enceladus and Other Icy Moons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beuthe, M.

2016-12-01

Could tidal dissipation within Enceladus' subsurface ocean account for the observed heat flow? Earthlike models of dynamical tides give no definitive answer because they neglect the influence of the crust. I propose here the first model of dissipative tides in a subsurface ocean, by combining the Laplace Tidal Equations with the membrane approach. For the first time, it is possible to compute tidal dissipation rates within the crust, ocean, and mantle in one go. I show that oceanic dissipation is strongly reduced by the crustal constraint, and thus contributes little to Enceladus' present heat budget. Tidal resonances could have played a role in a forming or freezing ocean less than 100 meters deep. The model is general: it applies to all icy satellites with a thin crust and a shallow or stratified ocean. Scaling rules relate the resonances and dissipation rate of a subsurface ocean to the ones of a surface ocean. If the ocean has low viscosity, the westward obliquity tide does not move the crust. Therefore, crustal dissipation due to dynamical obliquity tides can differ from the static prediction by up to a factor of two.

Models for ecological models: Ocean primary productivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wikle, Christopher K.; Leeds, William B.; Hooten, Mevin B.

2016-01-01

The ocean accounts for more than 70% of planet Earth's surface, and it processes are critically important to marine and terrestrial life.  Ocean ecosystems are strongly dependent on the physical state of the ocean (e.g., transports, mixing, upwelling, runoff, and ice dynamics(.  As an example, consider the Coastal Gulf of Alaska (CGOA) region.

The impact of wind energy turbine piles on ocean dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grashorn, Sebastian; Stanev, Emil V.

2016-04-01

The small- and meso-scale ocean response to wind parks has not been investigated in the southern North Sea until now with the help of high-resolution numerical modelling. Obstacles such as e.g. wind turbine piles may influence the ocean current system and produce turbulent kinetic energy which could affect sediment dynamics in the surrounding area. Two setups of the unstructured-grid model SCHISM (Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model) have been developed for an idealized channel including a surface piercing cylindrical obstacle representing the pile and a more realistic test case including four exemplary piles. Experiments using a constant flow around the obstacles and a rotating M2 tidal wave are carried out. The resulting current and turbulence patterns are investigated to estimate the influence of the obstacles on the surrounding ocean dynamics. We demonstrate that using an unstructured ocean model provides the opportunity to embed a high-resolution representation of a wind park turbine pile system into a coarser North Sea setup, which is needed in order to perform a seamless investigation of the resulting geophysical processes.

Quantifying predictability variations in a low-order ocean-atmosphere model - A dynamical systems approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nese, Jon M.; Dutton, John A.

1993-01-01

The predictability of the weather and climatic states of a low-order moist general circulation model is quantified using a dynamic systems approach, and the effect of incorporating a simple oceanic circulation on predictability is evaluated. The predictability and the structure of the model attractors are compared using Liapunov exponents, local divergence rates, and the correlation and Liapunov dimensions. It was found that the activation of oceanic circulation increases the average error doubling time of the atmosphere and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system by 10 percent and decreases the variance of the largest local divergence rate by 20 percent. When an oceanic circulation develops, the average predictability of annually averaged states is improved by 25 percent and the variance of the largest local divergence rate decreases by 25 percent.

Development and Utilization of Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). Delicacy, Imprecision, and Uncertainty of Oceanic Simulations: An Investigation with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). Mixing in the Ocean Surface Layer Using the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS).

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

community use for ROMS is biogeochemisty: chemical cycles, water quality, blooms , micro-nutrients, larval dispersal, biome transitions, and coupling to...J.C. McWilliams, X. Capet, and J. Kurian, 2010: Heat balance and eddies in the Peru- Chile Current System. Climate Dynamics, 37, in press. doi10.1007

The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Dongliang; Hu, Xiaoyue; Xu, Peng; Zhao, Xia; Masumoto, Yukio; Han, Weiqing

2018-01-01

The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%-15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.

Steering of Upper Ocean Currents and Fronts by the Topographically Constrained Abyssal Circulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-07-06

a) Mean surface dynamic height relative to 1000 m from version 2.5 of the Generalized Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ) oceanic climatology, an...NLOM simulations in comparison to the mean surface dynamic height with respect to 1000 m from the Generalized Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ...the Kuroshio pathway east of Japan, giving much better agreement with the pathway in the GDEM climatology. Dynamics of the topographic impact on

Global Modeling of Internal Tides Within an Eddying Ocean General Circulation Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

atmosphere and ocean (Yu and Weller, 2007 ). Salinities in the upper ocean are set by the difference between evaporation and precipitation at the ocean...surface (Yu, 2007 ; Schmitt, 2008). Because the buoyancy (density) of seawater at the ocean surface is con- trolled by temperature and salinity, the...days, these currents mean- der and generate highly energetic meso- scale eddies (Schmitz, 1996a,b; Stammer , 1997), the spinning oceanic dynamical

Coupled ice-ocean dynamics in the marginal ice zones Upwelling/downwelling and eddy generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, S.

1986-01-01

This study is aimed at modeling mesoscale processes such as upwelling/downwelling and ice edge eddies in the marginal ice zones. A two-dimensional coupled ice-ocean model is used for the study. The ice model is coupled to the reduced gravity ocean model through interfacial stresses. The parameters of the ocean model were chosen so that the dynamics would be nonlinear. The model was tested by studying the dynamics of upwelling. Wings parallel to the ice edge with the ice on the right produce upwelling because the air-ice momentum flux is much greater than air-ocean momentum flux; thus the Ekman transport is greater than the ice than in the open water. The stability of the upwelling and downwelling jets is discussed. The downwelling jet is found to be far more unstable than the upwelling jet because the upwelling jet is stabilized by the divergence. The constant wind field exerted on a varying ice cover will generate vorticity leading to enhanced upwelling/downwelling regions, i.e., wind-forced vortices. Steepening and strengthening of vortices are provided by the nonlinear terms. When forcing is time-varying, the advection terms will also redistribute the vorticity. The wind reversals will separate the vortices from the ice edge, so that the upwelling enhancements are pushed to the open ocean and the downwelling enhancements are pushed underneath the ice.

A Watched Ocean World Never Boils: Inspecting the Geochemical Impact on Ocean Worlds from Their Thermal Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spiers, E. M.; Schmidt, B. E.

2018-05-01

I aim to acquire better understanding of coupled thermal evolution and geochemical fluxes of an ocean world through a box model. A box model divides the system into plainer elements with realistically-solvable, dynamic equations.

Dynamical consequences of mantle heterogeneity in two-phase models of mid-ocean ridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, R. F.

2010-12-01

The mid-ocean ridge system, over 50,000 km in length, samples the magmatic products of a large swath of the asthenosphere. It provides our best means to assess the heterogeneity structure of the upper mantle. Interpretation of the diverse array of observations of MOR petrology, geochemistry, tomography, etc requires models that can map heterogeneity structure onto predictions testable by comparison with these observations. I report on progress to this end; in particular, I describe numerical models of coupled magma/mantle dynamics at mid-ocean ridges [1,2]. These models incorporate heterogeneity in terms of a simple, two-component thermochemical system with specified amplitude and spatial distribution. They indicate that mantle heterogeneity has significant fluid-dynamical consequences for both mantle and magmatic flow. Models show that the distribution of enrichment can lead to asymmetry in the strength of upwelling across the ridge-axis and channelised magmatic transport to the axis. Furthermore, heterogeneity can cause off-axis upwelling of partially molten diapirs, trapping of enriched melts off-axis, and re-fertilization of the mantle by pooled and refrozen melts. Predicted consequences of geochemical heterogeneity may also be considered. References: [1] Katz, RF, (2008); Magma dynamics with the Enthalpy Method: Benchmark Solutions and Magmatic Focusing at Mid-ocean Ridges. Journal of Petrology, doi: 10.1093/petrology/egn058. [2] Katz RF, (2010); Porosity-driven convection and asymmetry beneath mid-ocean ridges. Submitted to G3.

Ocean Modeling in an Eddying Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hecht, Matthew W.; Hasumi, Hiroyasu

This monograph is the first to survey progress in realistic simulation in a strongly eddying regime made possible by recent increases in computational capability. Its contributors comprise the leading researchers in this important and constantly evolving field. Divided into three parts, • Oceanographic Processes and Regimes: Fundamental Questions • Ocean Dynamics and State: From Regional to Global Scale, and • Modeling at the Mesoscale: State of the Art and Future Directions the volume details important advances in physical oceanography based on eddy resolving ocean modeling. It captures the state of the art and discusses issues that ocean modelers must consider in order to effectively contribute to advancing current knowledge, from subtleties of the underlying fluid dynamical equations to meaningful comparison with oceanographic observations and leading-edge model development. It summarizes many of the important results which have emerged from ocean modeling in an eddying regime, for those interested broadly in the physical science. More technical topics are intended to address the concerns of those actively working in the field.

Recent changes in the summer monsoon circulation and their impact on dynamics and thermodynamics of the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratik, Kad; Parekh, Anant; Karmakar, Ananya; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-05-01

The present study examines changes in the low-level summer monsoon circulation over the Arabian Sea and their impact on the ocean dynamics using reanalysis data. The study confirms intensification and northward migration of low-level jet during 1979 to 2015. Further during the study period, an increase in the Arabian Sea upper ocean heat content is found in spite of a decreasing trend in the net surface heat flux, indicating the possible role of ocean dynamics in the upper ocean warming. Increase in the anti-cyclonic wind stress curl associated with the change in the monsoon circulation induces downwelling over the central Arabian Sea, favoring upper ocean warming. The decreasing trend of southward Ekman transport, a mechanism transporting heat from the land-locked north Indian Ocean to southern latitudes, also supports increasing trend of the upper ocean heat content. To reinstate and quantify the role of changing monsoon circulation in increasing the heat content over the Arabian Sea, sensitivity experiment is carried out using ocean general circulation model. In this experiment, the model is forced by inter-annual momentum forcing while rest of the forcing is climatological. Experiment reveals that the changing monsoon circulation increases the upper ocean heat content, effectively by enhancing downwelling processes and reducing southward heat transport, which strongly endorses our hypothesis that changing ocean dynamics associated with low-level monsoon circulation is causing the increasing trend in the heat content of the Arabian Sea.

Vertical resolution of baroclinic modes in global ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, K. D.; Hogg, A. McC.; Griffies, S. M.; Heerdegen, A. P.; Ward, M. L.; Spence, P.; England, M. H.

2017-05-01

Improvements in the horizontal resolution of global ocean models, motivated by the horizontal resolution requirements for specific flow features, has advanced modelling capabilities into the dynamical regime dominated by mesoscale variability. In contrast, the choice of the vertical grid remains a subjective choice, and it is not clear that efforts to improve vertical resolution adequately support their horizontal counterparts. Indeed, considering that the bulk of the vertical ocean dynamics (including convection) are parameterized, it is not immediately obvious what the vertical grid is supposed to resolve. Here, we propose that the primary purpose of the vertical grid in a hydrostatic ocean model is to resolve the vertical structure of horizontal flows, rather than to resolve vertical motion. With this principle we construct vertical grids based on their abilities to represent baroclinic modal structures commensurate with the theoretical capabilities of a given horizontal grid. This approach is designed to ensure that the vertical grids of global ocean models complement (and, importantly, to not undermine) the resolution capabilities of the horizontal grid. We find that for z-coordinate global ocean models, at least 50 well-positioned vertical levels are required to resolve the first baroclinic mode, with an additional 25 levels per subsequent mode. High-resolution ocean-sea ice simulations are used to illustrate some of the dynamical enhancements gained by improving the vertical resolution of a 1/10° global ocean model. These enhancements include substantial increases in the sea surface height variance (∼30% increase south of 40°S), the barotropic and baroclinic eddy kinetic energies (up to 200% increase on and surrounding the Antarctic continental shelf and slopes), and the overturning streamfunction in potential density space (near-tripling of the Antarctic Bottom Water cell at 65°S).

The Importance of Planetary Rotation Period for Ocean Heat Transport

PubMed Central

Stevens, D.; Joshi, M.

2014-01-01

Abstract The climate and, hence, potential habitability of a planet crucially depends on how its atmospheric and ocean circulation transports heat from warmer to cooler regions. However, previous studies of planetary climate have concentrated on modeling the dynamics of atmospheres, while dramatically simplifying the treatment of oceans, which neglects or misrepresents the effect of the ocean in the total heat transport. Even the majority of studies with a dynamic ocean have used a simple so-called aquaplanet that has no continental barriers, which is a configuration that dramatically changes the ocean dynamics. Here, the significance of the response of poleward ocean heat transport to planetary rotation period is shown with a simple meridional barrier—the simplest representation of any continental configuration. The poleward ocean heat transport increases significantly as the planetary rotation period is increased. The peak heat transport more than doubles when the rotation period is increased by a factor of ten. There are also significant changes to ocean temperature at depth, with implications for the carbon cycle. There is strong agreement between the model results and a scale analysis of the governing equations. This result highlights the importance of both planetary rotation period and the ocean circulation when considering planetary habitability. Key Words: Exoplanet—Oceans—Rotation—Climate—Habitability. Astrobiology 14, 645–650. PMID:25041658

Mapping Global Ocean Surface Albedo from Satellite Observations: Models, Algorithms, and Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Fan, X.; Yan, H.; Li, A.; Wang, M.; Qu, Y.

2018-04-01

Ocean surface albedo (OSA) is one of the important parameters in surface radiation budget (SRB). It is usually considered as a controlling factor of the heat exchange among the atmosphere and ocean. The temporal and spatial dynamics of OSA determine the energy absorption of upper level ocean water, and have influences on the oceanic currents, atmospheric circulations, and transportation of material and energy of hydrosphere. Therefore, various parameterizations and models have been developed for describing the dynamics of OSA. However, it has been demonstrated that the currently available OSA datasets cannot full fill the requirement of global climate change studies. In this study, we present a literature review on mapping global OSA from satellite observations. The models (parameterizations, the coupled ocean-atmosphere radiative transfer (COART), and the three component ocean water albedo (TCOWA)), algorithms (the estimation method based on reanalysis data, and the direct-estimation algorithm), and datasets (the cloud, albedo and radiation (CLARA) surface albedo product, dataset derived by the TCOWA model, and the global land surface satellite (GLASS) phase-2 surface broadband albedo product) of OSA have been discussed, separately.

The Development of a Degree 360 Expansion of the Dynamic Ocean Topography of the POCM_4B Global Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rapp, Richard H.

1998-01-01

This paper documents the development of a degree 360 expansion of the dynamic ocean topography (DOT) of the POCM_4B ocean circulation model. The principles and software used that led to the final model are described. A key principle was the development of interpolated DOT values into land areas to avoid discontinuities at or near the land/ocean interface. The power spectrum of the POCM_4B is also presented with comparisons made between orthonormal (ON) and spherical harmonic magnitudes to degree 24. A merged file of ON and SH computed degree variances is proposed for applications where the DOT power spectrum from low to high (360) degrees is needed.

Geodynamics Branch research report, 1982

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahn, W. D. (Editor); Cohen, S. C. (Editor)

1983-01-01

The research program of the Geodynamics Branch is summarized. The research activities cover a broad spectrum of geoscience disciplines including space geodesy, geopotential field modeling, tectonophysics, and dynamic oceanography. The NASA programs which are supported by the work described include the Geodynamics and Ocean Programs, the Crustal Dynamics Project, the proposed Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX) and Geopotential Research Mission. The individual papers are grouped into chapters on Crustal Movements, Global Earth Dynamics, Gravity Field Model Development, Sea Surface Topography, and Advanced Studies.

Quantifying Key Climate Parameter Uncertainties Using an Earth System Model with a Dynamic 3D Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; Sriver, R. L.; Goes, M. P.; Urban, N.; Matthews, D.; Haran, M.; Keller, K.

2011-12-01

Climate projections hinge critically on uncertain climate model parameters such as climate sensitivity, vertical ocean diffusivity and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcings. Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Vertical ocean diffusivity parameterizes sub-grid scale ocean vertical mixing processes. These parameters are typically estimated using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) that lack a full 3D representation of the oceans, thereby neglecting the effects of mixing on ocean dynamics and meridional overturning. We improve on these studies by employing an EMIC with a dynamic 3D ocean model to estimate these parameters. We carry out historical climate simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) varying parameters that affect climate sensitivity, vertical ocean mixing, and effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the likelihood of each parameter combination depends on how well the model simulates surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content. We use a Gaussian process emulator to interpolate the model output to an arbitrary parameter setting. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of these parameters. We explore the sensitivity of the results to prior assumptions about the parameters. In addition, we estimate the relative skill of different observations to constrain the parameters. We quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates stemming from climate variability, model and observational errors. We explore the sensitivity of key decision-relevant climate projections to these parameters. We find that climate sensitivity and vertical ocean diffusivity estimates are consistent with previously published results. The climate sensitivity pdf is strongly affected by the prior assumptions, and by the scaling parameter for the aerosols. The estimation method is computationally fast and can be used with more complex models where climate sensitivity is diagnosed rather than prescribed. The parameter estimates can be used to create probabilistic climate projections using the UVic ESCM model in future studies.

Statistical and dynamical assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yan

North Africa is highly vulnerable to hydrologic variability and extremes, including impacts of climate change. The current understanding of oceanic versus terrestrial drivers of North African droughts and pluvials is largely model-based, with vast disagreement among models in terms of the simulated oceanic impacts and vegetation feedbacks. Regarding oceanic impacts, the relative importance of the tropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and tropical Atlantic Oceans in regulating the North African rainfall variability, as well as the underlying mechanism, remains debated among different modeling studies. Classic theory of land-atmosphere interactions across the Sahel ecotone, largely based on climate modeling experiments, has promoted positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks associated with a dominant surface albedo mechanism. However, neither the proposed positive vegetation-rainfall feedback with its underlying albedo mechanism, nor its relative importance compared with oceanic drivers, has been convincingly demonstrated up to now using observational data. Here, the multivariate Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is applied in order to identify the observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of North African climate and quantify their impacts. The reliability of the statistical GEFA method is first evaluated against dynamical experiments within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In order to reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional GEFA approach is refined through stepwise GEFA, in which unimportant forcings are dropped through stepwise selection. In order to evaluate GEFA's reliability in capturing oceanic impacts, the atmospheric response to a sea-surface temperature (SST) forcing across the tropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and tropical Atlantic Ocean is estimated independently through ensembles of dynamical experiments and compared with GEFA-based assessments. Furthermore, GEFA's performance in capturing terrestrial impacts is evaluated through ensembles of fully coupled CESM dynamical experiments, with modified leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture across the Sahel or West African Monsoon (WAM) region. The atmospheric responses to oceanic and terrestrial forcings are generally consistent between the dynamical experiments and statistical GEFA, confirming GEFA's capability of isolating the individual impacts of oceanic and terrestrial forcings on North African climate. Furthermore, with the incorporation of stepwise selection, GEFA can now provide reliable estimates of the oceanic and terrestrial impacts on the North African climate with the typical length of observational datasets, thereby enhancing the method's applicability. After the successful validation of GEFA, the key observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of North African climate are identified through the application of GEFA to gridded observations, remote sensing products, and reanalyses. According to GEFA, oceanic drivers dominate over terrestrial drivers in terms of their observed impacts on North African climate in most seasons. Terrestrial impacts are comparable to, or more important than, oceanic impacts on rainfall during the post-monsoon across the Sahel and WAM region, and after the short rain across the Horn of Africa (HOA). The key ocean basins that regulate North African rainfall are typically located in the tropics. While the observed impacts of SST variability across the tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic Oceans on the Sahel rainfall are largely consistent with previous model-based findings, minimal impacts from tropical Indian Ocean variability on Sahel rainfall are identified in observations, in contrast to previous modeling studies. The current observational analysis verifies model-hypothesized positive vegetation-rainfall feedback across the Sahel and HOA, which is confined to the post-monsoon and post-short rains season, respectively. However, the observed positive vegetation feedback to rainfall in the semi-arid Sahel and HOA is largely due to moisture recycling, rather than the classic albedo mechanism. Future projections of Sahel rainfall remain highly uncertain in terms of both sign and magnitude within phases three and five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The GEFA-based observational analyses will provide a benchmark for evaluating climate models, which will facilitate effective process-based model weighting for more reliable projections of regional climate, as well as model development.

Coarsening of physics for biogeochemical model in NEMO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bricaud, Clement; Le Sommer, Julien; Madec, Gurvan; Deshayes, Julie; Chanut, Jerome; Perruche, Coralie

2017-04-01

Ocean mesoscale and submesoscale turbulence contribute to ocean tracer transport and to shaping ocean biogeochemical tracers distribution. Representing adequately tracer transport in ocean models therefore requires to increase model resolution so that the impact of ocean turbulence is adequately accounted for. But due to supercomputers power and storage limitations, global biogeochemical models are not yet run routinely at eddying resolution. Still, because the "effective resolution" of eddying ocean models is much coarser than the physical model grid resolution, tracer transport can be reconstructed to a large extent by computing tracer transport and diffusion with a model grid resolution close to the effective resolution of the physical model. This observation has motivated the implementation of a new capability in NEMO ocean model (http://www.nemo-ocean.eu/) that allows to run the physical model and the tracer transport model at different grid resolutions. In a first time, we present results obtained with this new capability applied to a synthetic age tracer in a global eddying model configuration. In this model configuration, ocean dynamic is computed at ¼° resolution but tracer transport is computed at 3/4° resolution. The solution obtained is compared to 2 reference setup ,one at ¼° resolution for both physics and passive tracer models and one at 3/4° resolution for both physics and passive tracer model. We discuss possible options for defining the vertical diffusivity coefficient for the tracer transport model based on information from the high resolution grid. We describe the impact of this choice on the distribution and one the penetration of the age tracer. In a second time we present results obtained by coupling the physics with the biogeochemical model PISCES. We look at the impact of this methodology on some tracers distribution and dynamic. The method described here can found applications in ocean forecasting, such as the Copernicus Marine service operated by Mercator-Ocean, and in Earth System Models for climate applications.

Decadal-Scale Response of the Antarctic Ice sheet to a Warming Ocean using the POPSICLES Coupled Ice Sheet-Ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, D. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Cornford, S. L.; Price, S. F.; Ng, E. G.; Collins, W.

2015-12-01

We present POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period from 1990 to 2010. We use the CORE v. 2 interannual forcing data to force the ocean model. Simulations are performed at 0.1o(~5 km) ocean resolution with adaptive ice sheet resolution as fine as 500 m to adequately resolve the grounding line dynamics. We discuss the effect of improved ocean mixing and subshelf bathymetry (vs. the standard Bedmap2 bathymetry) on the behavior of the coupled system, comparing time-averaged melt rates below a number of major ice shelves with those reported in the literature. We also present seasonal variability and decadal melting trends from several Antarctic regions, along with the response of the ice shelves and the consequent dynamic response of the grounded ice sheet.POPSICLES couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program, and the BISICLES ice-sheet model. POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells and the commonly used three-equation boundary layer physics. Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations. BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement and a 1st-order accurate momentum balance similar to the L1L2 model of Schoof and Hindmarsh to accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests (MISMIP-3d) and realistic configurations.The figure shows the BISICLES-computed vertically-integrated grounded ice velocity field 5 years into a 20-year coupled full-continent Antarctic-Southern-Ocean simulation. Submarine melt rates are painted onto the surface of the floating ice shelves. Grounding lines are shown in green.

Ocean Tidal Dynamics and Dissipation in the Thick Shell Worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, H.; Matsuyama, I.

2017-12-01

Tidal dissipation in the subsurface oceans of icy satellites has so far only been explored in the limit of a free-surface ocean or under the assumption of a thin ice shell. Here we consider ocean tides in the opposite limit, under the assumption of an infinitely rigid, immovable, ice shell. This assumption forces the surface displacement of the ocean to remain zero, and requires the solution of a pressure correction to ensure that the ocean is mass conserving (divergence-free) at all times. This work investigates the effect of an infinitely rigid lid on ocean dynamics and dissipation, focusing on implications for the thick shell worlds Ganymede and Callisto. We perform simulations using a modified version of the numerical model Ocean Dissipation in Icy Satellites (ODIS), solving the momentum equations for incompressible shallow water flow under a degree-2 tidal forcing. The velocity solution to the momentum equations is updated iteratively at each time-step using a pressure correction to guarantee mass conservation everywhere, following a standard solution procedure originally used in solving the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. We reason that any model that investigates ocean dynamics beneath a global ice layer should be tested in the limit of an immovable ice shell and must yield solutions that exhibit divergence-free flow at all times.

Effect of Global Warming and Increased Freshwater Flux on Northern Hemispheric Cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girihagama, L. N.; Nof, D.

2016-02-01

We wish to answer the, fairly complicated, question of whether global warming and an increased freshwater flux can cause Northern Hemispheric warming or cooling. Starting from the assumption that the ocean is the primary source of variability in the Northern hemispheric ocean-atmosphere coupled system, we employed a simple non-linear one-dimensional coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The simplicity of the model allows us to analytically predict the evolution of many dynamical variables of interest such as, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), temperatures of the ocean and atmosphere, mass transports, salinity, and ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes. The model results show that a reduced AMOC transport due to an increased freshwater flux causes cooling in both the atmosphere and ocean in the North Atlantic (NA) deep-water formation region. Cooling in both the ocean and atmosphere can cause reduction of the ocean-atmosphere temperature difference, which in turn reduces heat fluxes in both the ocean and atmosphere. For present day climate parameters, the calculated critical freshwater flux needed to arrest AMOC is 0.08 Sv. For a constant atmospheric zonal flow, there is minimal reduction in the AMOC strength, as well as minimal warming of the ocean and atmosphere. This model provides a conceptual framework for a dynamically sound response of the ocean and atmosphere to AMOC variability as a function of increased freshwater flux. The results are qualitatively consistent with numerous realistic coupled numerical models of varying complexity.

A Summary of the Naval Postgraduate School Research Program.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-09-30

Research (M. G. Sovereign) 116 Review of COMWTH II Model (M. G. Sovereign and J. K. Arima ) 117 Optimization of Combat Dynamics (J. G. Taylor) 118...Studies (R. L. Elsberry) 291 4 Numerical Models of Ocean Circulation and Climate Interaction--A Review (R. L. Haney) 292 Numerical Studies of the Dynamics... climatic numerical models to investigate the various mechan- isms pertinent to the large-scale interaction between tropi- cal atmosphere and oceans. Among

Surface properties of ocean fronts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolff, P. M.; Hubert, W. E.

1976-01-01

Background information on oceanic fronts is presented and the results of several models which were developed to study the dynamics of oceanic fronts and their effects on various surface properties are described. The details of the four numerical models used in these studies are given in separate appendices which contain all of the physical equations, program documentation and running instructions for the models.

On the Use of Ocean Dynamic Temperature for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R.; Leung, L. Ruby

Sea surface temperature (SST) and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) are metrics used to incorporate the ocean's influence on hurricane intensification in the National Hurricane Center's Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). While both SST and TCHP serve as useful measures of the upper-ocean heat content, they do not accurately represent ocean stratification effects. Here we show that replacing SST in the SHIPS framework with a dynamic temperature (Tdy), which accounts for the oceanic negative feedback to the hurricane's intensity arising from storm-induced vertical mixing and sea-surface cooling, improves the model performance. While the model with SST and TCHPmore » explains nearly 41% of the variance in 36-hr intensity changes, replacing SST with Tdy increases the variance explained to nearly 44%. Our results suggest that representation of the oceanic feedback, even through relatively simple formulations such as Tdy, may improve the performance of statistical hurricane intensity prediction models such as SHIPS.« less

Excitation of the Earth's Chandler wobble by a turbulent oceanic double-gyre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naghibi, S. E.; Jalali, M. A.; Karabasov, S. A.; Alam, M.-R.

2017-04-01

We develop a layer-averaged, multiple-scale spectral ocean model and show how an oceanic double-gyre can communicate with the Earth's Chandler wobble. The overall transfers of energy and angular momentum from the double-gyre to the Chandler wobble are used to calibrate the turbulence parameters of the layer-averaged model. Our model is tested against a multilayer quasi-geostrophic ocean model in turbulent regime, and base states used in parameter identification are obtained from mesoscale eddy resolving numerical simulations. The Chandler wobble excitation function obtained from the model predicts a small role of North Atlantic ocean region on the wobble dynamics as compared to all oceans, in agreement with the existing observations.

Results from ISOMIP+ and MISOMIP1, two interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asay-Davis, X.; Galton-Fenzi, B.; Gwyther, D.; Jourdain, N.; Martin, D. F.; Nakayama, Y.; Seroussi, H. L.

2016-12-01

MISMIP+ (the third Marine Ice Sheet MIP), ISOMIP+ (the second Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP) and MISOMIP1 (the first Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean MIP) prescribe a set of idealized experiments for marine ice-sheet models, ocean models with ice-shelf cavities, and coupled ice sheet-ocean models, respectively. Here, we present results from ISOMIP+ and MISOMIP1 experiments using several ocean-only and coupled ice sheet-ocean models. Among the ocean models, we show that differences in model behavior are significant enough that similar results can only be achieved by tuning model parameters (the heat- and salt-transfer coefficients across the sub-ice-shelf boundary layer) for each model. This tuning is constrained by a desired mean melt rate in quasi-steady state under specified forcing conditions, akin to tuning the models to match observed melt rates. We compare the evolution of ocean temperature transects, melt rate, friction velocity and thermal driving between ocean models for the five ISOMIP+ experiments (Ocean0-4), which have prescribed ice-shelf topography. We find that melt patterns differ between models based on the relative importance of overturning strength and vertical mixing of temperature even when the models have been tuned to achieve similar melt rates near the grounding line. For the two MISOMIP1 experiments (IceOcean1 without dynamic calving and IceOcean2 with a simple calving parameterization), we compare temperature transects, melt rate, ice-shelf topography and grounded area across models and for several model configurations. Consistent with preliminary results from MISMIP+, we find that for a given coupled model, the use of a Coulomb-limited basal friction parameterization below grounded ice and the application of dynamic calving both significantly increase the rate of grounding-line retreat, whereas the rate of retreat appears to be less sensitive to the ice stress approximation (shallow-shelf approximation, higher-order, etc.). We show that models with similar mean melt rates, stress approximations and basal friction parameterizations produce markedly different rates of grounding-line retreat, and we investigate possible sources of these disparities (e.g. differences in coupling strategy or melt distribution).

The space shuttle payload planning working groups. Volume 8: Earth and ocean physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

The findings and recommendations of the Earth and Ocean Physics working group of the space shuttle payload planning activity are presented. The requirements for the space shuttle mission are defined as: (1) precision measurement for earth and ocean physics experiments, (2) development and demonstration of new and improved sensors and analytical techniques, (3) acquisition of surface truth data for evaluation of new measurement techniques, (4) conduct of critical experiments to validate geophysical phenomena and instrumental results, and (5) development and validation of analytical/experimental models for global ocean dynamics and solid earth dynamics/earthquake prediction. Tables of data are presented to show the flight schedule estimated costs, and the mission model.

Sensitivity studies with a coupled ice-ocean model of the marginal ice zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roed, L. P.

1983-01-01

An analytical coupled ice-ocean model is considered which is forced by a specified wind stress acting on the open ocean as well as the ice. The analysis supports the conjecture that the upwelling dynamics at ice edges can be understood by means of a simple analytical model. In similarity with coastal problems it is shown that the ice edge upwelling is determined by the net mass flux at the boundaries of the considered region. The model is used to study the sensitivity of the upwelling dynamics in the marginal ice zone to variation in the controlling parameters. These parameters consist of combinations of the drag coefficients used in the parameterization of the stresses on the three interfaces atmosphere-ice, atmosphere-ocean, and ice-ocean. The response is shown to be sensitive to variations in these parameters in that one set of parameters may give upwelling while a slightly different set of parameters may give downwelling.

Astronomical Ice: The Effects of Treating Ice as a Porous Media on the Dynamics and Evolution of Extraterrestrial Ice-Ocean Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buffo, J.; Schmidt, B. E.

2015-12-01

With the prevalence of water and ice rich environments in the solar system, and likely the universe, becoming more apparent, understanding the evolutionary dynamics and physical processes of such locales is of great importance. Piqued interest arises from the understanding that the persistence of all known life depends on the presence of liquid water. As in situ investigation is currently infeasible, accurate numerical modeling is the best technique to demystify these environments. We will discuss an evolving model of ice-ocean interaction aimed at realistically describing the behavior of the ice-ocean interface by treating basal ice as a porous media, and its possible implications on the formation of astrobiological niches. Treating ice as a porous media drastically affects the thermodynamic properties it exhibits. Thus inclusion of this phenomenon is critical in accurately representing the dynamics and evolution of all ice-ocean environments. This model utilizes equations that describe the dynamics of sea ice when it is treated as a porous media (Hunke et. al. 2011), coupled with a basal melt and accretion model (Holland and Jenkins 1999). Combined, these two models produce the most accurate description of the processes occurring at the base of terrestrial sea ice and ice shelves, capable of resolving variations within the ice due to environmental pressures. While these models were designed for application to terrestrial environments, the physics occurring at any ice-water interface is identical, and these models can be used to represent the evolution of a variety of icy astronomical bodies. As terrestrial ice shelves provide a close analog to planetary ice-ocean environments, we truth test the models validity against observations of ice shelves. We apply this model to the ice-ocean interface of the icy Galilean moon Europa. We include profiles of temperature, salinity, solid fraction, and Darcy velocity, as well as temporally and spatially varying melt and accretion rates. A porous medium is an ideal place for the coalescence of nutrients and the formation of energy gradients, key controllers of biological activity. Understanding the physics that influence ice-ocean exchange is thus essential in assessing the habitability of Europa and its contemporaries.

Bayesian Inference of High-Dimensional Dynamical Ocean Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, J.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.; Lolla, S. V. T.; Gupta, A.; Haley, P. J., Jr.

2015-12-01

This presentation addresses a holistic set of challenges in high-dimension ocean Bayesian nonlinear estimation: i) predict the probability distribution functions (pdfs) of large nonlinear dynamical systems using stochastic partial differential equations (PDEs); ii) assimilate data using Bayes' law with these pdfs; iii) predict the future data that optimally reduce uncertainties; and (iv) rank the known and learn the new model formulations themselves. Overall, we allow the joint inference of the state, equations, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions of dynamical models. Examples are provided for time-dependent fluid and ocean flows, including cavity, double-gyre and Strait flows with jets and eddies. The Bayesian model inference, based on limited observations, is illustrated first by the estimation of obstacle shapes and positions in fluid flows. Next, the Bayesian inference of biogeochemical reaction equations and of their states and parameters is presented, illustrating how PDE-based machine learning can rigorously guide the selection and discovery of complex ecosystem models. Finally, the inference of multiscale bottom gravity current dynamics is illustrated, motivated in part by classic overflows and dense water formation sites and their relevance to climate monitoring and dynamics. This is joint work with our MSEAS group at MIT.

Oceanic island biogeography through the lens of the general dynamic model: assessment and prospect.

PubMed

Borregaard, Michael K; Amorim, Isabel R; Borges, Paulo A V; Cabral, Juliano S; Fernández-Palacios, José M; Field, Richard; Heaney, Lawrence R; Kreft, Holger; Matthews, Thomas J; Olesen, Jens M; Price, Jonathan; Rigal, Francois; Steinbauer, Manuel J; Triantis, Konstantinos A; Valente, Luis; Weigelt, Patrick; Whittaker, Robert J

2017-05-01

The general dynamic model of oceanic island biogeography (GDM) has added a new dimension to theoretical island biogeography in recognizing that geological processes are key drivers of the evolutionary processes of diversification and extinction within remote islands. It provides a dynamic and essentially non-equilibrium framework generating novel predictions for emergent diversity properties of oceanic islands and archipelagos. Its publication in 2008 coincided with, and spurred on, renewed attention to the dynamics of remote islands. We review progress, both in testing the GDM's predictions and in developing and enhancing ecological-evolutionary understanding of oceanic island systems through the lens of the GDM. In particular, we focus on four main themes: (i) macroecological tests using a space-for-time rationale; (ii) extensions of theory to islands following different patterns of ontogeny; (iii) the implications of GDM dynamics for lineage diversification and trait evolution; and (iv) the potential for downscaling GDM dynamics to local-scale ecological patterns and processes within islands. We also consider the implications of the GDM for understanding patterns of non-native species diversity. We demonstrate the vitality of the field of island biogeography by identifying a range of potentially productive lines for future research. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Dynamic constraints on CO2 uptake by an iron-fertilized Antarctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peng, Tsung-Hung; Broecker, Wallace S.; Oestlund, H. G.

1992-01-01

The topics covered include the following: tracer distribution and dynamics in the Antarctic Ocean; a model of Antarctic and Non-Antarctic Oceans; effects on an anthropogenically affected atmosphere; effects of seasonal iron fertilization; and implications of the South Atlantic Ventilation Experiment C-14 results.

Exploring the Lyapunov instability properties of high-dimensional atmospheric and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Cruz, Lesley; Schubert, Sebastian; Demaeyer, Jonathan; Lucarini, Valerio; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2018-05-01

The stability properties of intermediate-order climate models are investigated by computing their Lyapunov exponents (LEs). The two models considered are PUMA (Portable University Model of the Atmosphere), a primitive-equation simple general circulation model, and MAOOAM (Modular Arbitrary-Order Ocean-Atmosphere Model), a quasi-geostrophic coupled ocean-atmosphere model on a β-plane. We wish to investigate the effect of the different levels of filtering on the instabilities and dynamics of the atmospheric flows. Moreover, we assess the impact of the oceanic coupling, the dissipation scheme, and the resolution on the spectra of LEs. The PUMA Lyapunov spectrum is computed for two different values of the meridional temperature gradient defining the Newtonian forcing to the temperature field. The increase in the gradient gives rise to a higher baroclinicity and stronger instabilities, corresponding to a larger dimension of the unstable manifold and a larger first LE. The Kaplan-Yorke dimension of the attractor increases as well. The convergence rate of the rate function for the large deviation law of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) is fast for all exponents, which can be interpreted as resulting from the absence of a clear-cut atmospheric timescale separation in such a model. The MAOOAM spectra show that the dominant atmospheric instability is correctly represented even at low resolutions. However, the dynamics of the central manifold, which is mostly associated with the ocean dynamics, is not fully resolved because of its associated long timescales, even at intermediate orders. As expected, increasing the mechanical atmosphere-ocean coupling coefficient or introducing a turbulent diffusion parametrisation reduces the Kaplan-Yorke dimension and Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. In all considered configurations, we are not yet in the regime in which one can robustly define large deviation laws describing the statistics of the FTLEs. This paper highlights the need to investigate the natural variability of the atmosphere-ocean coupled dynamics by associating rate of growth and decay of perturbations with the physical modes described using the formalism of the covariant Lyapunov vectors and considering long integrations in order to disentangle the dynamical processes occurring at all timescales.

Stochastic Ocean Predictions with Dynamically-Orthogonal Primitive Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramani, D. N.; Haley, P., Jr.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.

2017-12-01

The coastal ocean is a prime example of multiscale nonlinear fluid dynamics. Ocean fields in such regions are complex and intermittent with unstationary heterogeneous statistics. Due to the limited measurements, there are multiple sources of uncertainties, including the initial conditions, boundary conditions, forcing, parameters, and even the model parameterizations and equations themselves. For efficient and rigorous quantification and prediction of these uncertainities, the stochastic Dynamically Orthogonal (DO) PDEs for a primitive equation ocean modeling system with a nonlinear free-surface are derived and numerical schemes for their space-time integration are obtained. Detailed numerical studies with idealized-to-realistic regional ocean dynamics are completed. These include consistency checks for the numerical schemes and comparisons with ensemble realizations. As an illustrative example, we simulate the 4-d multiscale uncertainty in the Middle Atlantic/New York Bight region during the months of Jan to Mar 2017. To provide intitial conditions for the uncertainty subspace, uncertainties in the region were objectively analyzed using historical data. The DO primitive equations were subsequently integrated in space and time. The probability distribution function (pdf) of the ocean fields is compared to in-situ, remote sensing, and opportunity data collected during the coincident POSYDON experiment. Results show that our probabilistic predictions had skill and are 3- to 4- orders of magnitude faster than classic ensemble schemes.

Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

PubMed

Bragg, Jason G; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Jahn, Oliver; Follows, Michael J; Chisholm, Sallie W

2010-03-10

Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying ocean processes and selective pressures that may be difficult or impossible to study by other means. More generally, and perhaps more importantly, this study introduces an approach for testing hypotheses about the processes that underlie genetic variation among marine microbes, embedded in the dynamic physical, chemical, and biological forces that generate and shape this diversity.

Global Climate Impacts of Fixing the Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Bias in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kay, Jennifer E.; Wall, Casey; Yettella, Vineel

Here, a large, long-standing, and pervasive climate model bias is excessive absorbed shortwave radiation (ASR) over the midlatitude oceans, especially the Southern Ocean. This study investigates both the underlying mechanisms for and climate impacts of this bias within the Community Earth System Model, version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 [CESM1(CAM5)]. Excessive Southern Ocean ASR in CESM1(CAM5) results in part because low-level clouds contain insufficient amounts of supercooled liquid. In a present-day atmosphere-only run, an observationally motivated modification to the shallow convection detrainment increases supercooled cloud liquid, brightens low-level clouds, and substantially reduces the Southern Ocean ASR bias.more » Tuning to maintain global energy balance enables reduction of a compensating tropical ASR bias. In the resulting preindustrial fully coupled run with a brighter Southern Ocean and dimmer tropics, the Southern Ocean cools and the tropics warm. As a result of the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, poleward heat transport increases in both hemispheres (especially the Southern Hemisphere), and the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric jet strengthens. Because northward cross-equatorial heat transport reductions occur primarily in the ocean (80%), not the atmosphere (20%), a proposed atmospheric teleconnection linking Southern Ocean ASR bias reduction and cooling with northward shifts in tropical precipitation has little impact. In summary, observationally motivated supercooled liquid water increases in shallow convective clouds enable large reductions in long-standing climate model shortwave radiation biases. Of relevance to both model bias reduction and climate dynamics, quantifying the influence of Southern Ocean cooling on tropical precipitation requires a model with dynamic ocean heat transport.« less

Global Climate Impacts of Fixing the Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Bias in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

DOE PAGES

Kay, Jennifer E.; Wall, Casey; Yettella, Vineel; ...

2016-06-10

Here, a large, long-standing, and pervasive climate model bias is excessive absorbed shortwave radiation (ASR) over the midlatitude oceans, especially the Southern Ocean. This study investigates both the underlying mechanisms for and climate impacts of this bias within the Community Earth System Model, version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 [CESM1(CAM5)]. Excessive Southern Ocean ASR in CESM1(CAM5) results in part because low-level clouds contain insufficient amounts of supercooled liquid. In a present-day atmosphere-only run, an observationally motivated modification to the shallow convection detrainment increases supercooled cloud liquid, brightens low-level clouds, and substantially reduces the Southern Ocean ASR bias.more » Tuning to maintain global energy balance enables reduction of a compensating tropical ASR bias. In the resulting preindustrial fully coupled run with a brighter Southern Ocean and dimmer tropics, the Southern Ocean cools and the tropics warm. As a result of the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, poleward heat transport increases in both hemispheres (especially the Southern Hemisphere), and the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric jet strengthens. Because northward cross-equatorial heat transport reductions occur primarily in the ocean (80%), not the atmosphere (20%), a proposed atmospheric teleconnection linking Southern Ocean ASR bias reduction and cooling with northward shifts in tropical precipitation has little impact. In summary, observationally motivated supercooled liquid water increases in shallow convective clouds enable large reductions in long-standing climate model shortwave radiation biases. Of relevance to both model bias reduction and climate dynamics, quantifying the influence of Southern Ocean cooling on tropical precipitation requires a model with dynamic ocean heat transport.« less

Response of major Greenland outlet glaciers to oceanic and atmospheric forcing: Results from numerical modeling on Petermann, Jakobshavn and Helheim Glacier.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nick, F. M.; Vieli, A.; Pattyn, F.; Van de Wal, R.

2011-12-01

Oceanic forcing has been suggested as a major trigger for dynamic changes of Greenland outlet glaciers. Significant melting near their calving front or beneath the floating tongue and reduced support from sea ice or ice melange in front of their calving front can result in retreat of the terminus or the grounding line, and an increase in calving activities. Depending on the geometry and basal topography of the glacier, these oceanic forcing can affect the glacier dynamic differently. Here, we carry out a comparison study between three major outlet glaciers in Greenland and investigate the impact of a warmer ocean on glacier dynamics and ice discharge. We present results from a numerical ice-flow model applied to Petermann Glacier in the north, Jakobshavn Glacier in the west, and Helheim Glacier in the southeast of Greenland.

Mean Dynamic Topography of the Arctic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farrell, Sinead Louise; Mcadoo, David C.; Laxon, Seymour W.; Zwally, H. Jay; Yi, Donghui; Ridout, Andy; Giles, Katherine

2012-01-01

ICESat and Envisat altimetry data provide measurements of the instantaneous sea surface height (SSH) across the Arctic Ocean, using lead and open water elevation within the sea ice pack. First, these data were used to derive two independent mean sea surface (MSS) models by stacking and averaging along-track SSH profiles gathered between 2003 and 2009. The ICESat and Envisat MSS data were combined to construct the high-resolution ICEn MSS. Second, we estimate the 5.5-year mean dynamic topography (MDT) of the Arctic Ocean by differencing the ICEn MSS with the new GOCO02S geoid model, derived from GRACE and GOCE gravity. Using these satellite-only data we map the major features of Arctic Ocean dynamical height that are consistent with in situ observations, including the topographical highs and lows of the Beaufort and Greenland Gyres, respectively. Smaller-scale MDT structures remain largely unresolved due to uncertainties in the geoid at short wavelengths.

The pole tide in deep oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dickman, S. R.

1990-01-01

The fluid-dynamical theory of the pole tide is examined by describing the oceanic response to the Chandler wobble and assessing its implications for mantle anelasticity and low-frequency ocean dynamics. The Laplace tide equations accounting for bottom friction are given, and a spherical harmonic approach is delineated in which the time-independent portion of the tide height is expanded. Pole-tide height and related inertia products are linearly proportional to wobble amplitude, and the final equations are modified to account for mantle elasticity and oceanic loading. Results for pole tide effects are given for various earth models with attention to the role of boundary constraints. A dynamic effect is identified which lengthens the Chandler period by about 1 day more than static lengthening, a contribution that suggests a vigorous low-frequency response. The values derived are shown to agree with previous models that do not incorporate the effects of the pole tide.

Estimating the Ocean Flow Field from Combined Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Surface Height Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stammer, Detlef; Lindstrom, Eric (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This project was part of a previous grant at MIT that was moved over to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) together with the principal investigator. The final report provided here is concerned only with the work performed at SIO since January 2000. The primary focus of this project was the study of the three-dimensional, absolute and time-evolving general circulation of the global ocean from a combined analysis of remotely sensed fields of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH). The synthesis of those two fields was performed with other relevant physical data, and appropriate dynamical ocean models with emphasis on constraining ocean general circulation models by a combination of both SST and SSH data. The central goal of the project was to improve our understanding and modeling of the relationship between the SST and its variability to internal ocean dynamics, and the overlying atmosphere, and to explore the relative roles of air-sea fluxes and internal ocean dynamics in establishing anomalies in SST on annual and longer time scales. An understanding of those problems will feed into the general discussion on how SST anomalies vary with time and the extend to which they interact with the atmosphere.

Design and analysis of a global sub-mesoscale and tidal dynamics admitting virtual ocean.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menemenlis, D.; Hill, C. N.

2016-02-01

We will describe the techniques used to realize a global kilometerscale ocean model configuration that includes representation of sea-ice and tidal excitation, and spans scales from planetary gyres to internal tides. A simulation using this model configuration provides a virtual ocean that admits some sub-mesoscale dynamics and tidal energetics not normally represented in global calculations. This extends simulated ocean behavior beyond broadly quasi-geostrophic flows and provides a preliminary example of a next generation computational approach to explicitly probing the interactions between instabilities that are usually parameterized and dominant energetic scales in the ocean. From previous process studies we have ascertained that this can lead to a qualitative improvement in the realism of many significant processes including geostrophic eddy dynamics, shelf-break exchange and topographic mixing. Computationally we exploit high-degrees of parallelism in both numerical evaluation and in recording model state to persistent disk storage. Together this allows us to compute and record a full three-dimensional model trajectory at hourly frequency for a timeperiod of 5 months with less than 9 million core hours of parallel computer time, using the present generation NASA Ames Research Center facilities. We have used this capability to create a 5 month trajectory archive, sampled at high spatial and temporal frequency for an ocean configuration that is initialized from a realistic data-assimilated state and driven with reanalysis surface forcing from ECMWF. The resulting database of model state provides a novel virtual laboratory for exploring coupling across scales in the ocean, and for testing ideas on the relationship between small scale fluxes and large scale state. The computation is complemented by counterpart computations that are coarsened two and four times respectively. In this presentation we will review the computational and numerical technologies employed and show how the high spatio-temporal frequency archive of model state can provide a new and promising tool for researching richer ocean dynamics at scale. We will also outline how computations of this nature could be combined with next generation computer hardware plans to help inform important climate process questions.

Atmosphere-ocean feedbacks in a coastal upwelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alves, J. M. R.; Peliz, A.; Caldeira, R. M. A.; Miranda, P. M. A.

2018-03-01

The COAWST (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport) modelling system is used in different configurations to simulate the Iberian upwelling during the 2012 summer, aiming to assess the atmosphere-ocean feedbacks in the upwelling dynamics. When model results are compared with satellite measurements and in-situ data, two-way coupling is found to have a moderate impact in data-model statistics. A significant reinforcement of atmosphere-ocean coupling coefficients is, however, observed in the two-way coupled run, and in the WRF and ROMS runs forced by previously simulated SST and wind fields, respectively. The increasing in the coupling coefficient is associated with slight, but potentially important changes in the low-level coastal jet in the atmospheric marine boundary layer. While these results do not imply the need for fully coupled simulations in many applications, they show that in seasonal numerical studies such simulations do not degrade the overall model performance, and contribute to produce better dynamical fields.

Application of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry to ocean dynamics and geophysics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Bruce; Cheney, R.; Miller, L.; Mcadoo, D.; Leetmaa, A.; Schopf, P.; Schwiderski, E. W.

1991-01-01

We will analyze the TOPEX/POSEIDON data using techniques developed for Geosat, although the more accurate TOPEX/POSEIDON data will enable a wider range of problems to be addressed. Our proposed investigations will have five distinct areas: (1) a description of global sea level variability; (2) tropical ocean dynamics; (3) coupled models for El Nino prediction; (4) structure of the lithosphere; and (5) global tide model improvement.

Enceladus's ice shell thickness and ocean depth from gravity, topography, and libration measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trinh, A.; Rivoldini, A.; Beuthe, M.; Rekier, J.; Baland, R. M.; Van Hoolst, T.

2017-12-01

One of Cassini's major achievements is the discovery of a global ocean a few kilometres beneath Enceladus's south polar terrain. Here we infer the thickness of Enceladus's ice shell and ocean from Cassini's observations using our latest models of isostatic compensation, shell libration, and ocean dynamics.

Adaptation of a general circulation model to ocean dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. E.; Rees, T. H.; Woodbury, G. E.

1976-01-01

A primitive-variable general circulation model of the ocean was formulated in which fast external gravity waves are suppressed with rigid-lid surface constraint pressires which also provide a means for simulating the effects of large-scale free-surface topography. The surface pressure method is simpler to apply than the conventional stream function models, and the resulting model can be applied to both global ocean and limited region situations. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are also presented.

Finite Element Barotropic Model for the Indian and Western Pacific OceanBasin: Tidal Model Data Comparisons and Sensitivities

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-11

From - To) 01/11/2018 Final Technical Report June 01 2016 - Dec 30 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Sa. CONTRACT NUMBER Finite - Element Barotropic Model...grid finite - element barotropic fully hydrodynamic model in order to understand the shallow-water dynamics of the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific Ocean...dissipative dissipative processes are explored. 15. SUBJECTTERMS finite - element , unstructured grid, barotropic tides, bathymetry, internal tide

Dynamic relationship between ocean bottom pressure and bathymetry around northern part of Hikurangi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muramoto, T.; Inazu, D.; Ito, Y.; Hino, R.; Suzuki, S.

2017-12-01

In recent years, observation using ocean bottom pressure recorders for the purpose of the evaluation of sea floor crustal deformation is in great vogue. The observation network set up for the observation of sea floor is densely spaced compared with the instrument network for the observation of ocean. Therefore, it has the characteristic that it can observe phenomena on a local scale. In this study, by using these in situ data, we discuss ocean phenomena on a local scale. In this study, we use a high-resolution ocean model (Inazu Ocean Model) driven by surface air pressure and surface wind vector published by the Japan Meteorological Agency. We perform a hindcast experiment for ocean bottom pressure anomaly from April 2013 to June 2017. Then, we compare these results with in situ data. In this study, we use observed pressure records which were recorded by autonomous type instrument spanning a period from April 2013 to June 2017 off the coast of North Island in New Zealand. Consequently, we found this model can simulate not only the amplitude but also phase of non-tidal oceanic variation of East Cape Current (ECC) off the coast of North Island of New Zealand. Then, we calculate cross-correlation coefficient between the data at the OBP sites. We revealed that the ocean bottom pressure shows different behavior on the west side from the east side of edge of the continental shelf. This result implies that the submarine slope induces a dynamic effect and contributes to the seasonal variation of ocean bottom pressure. In addition, we calculate the velocity of the surface current in this area using our model, and consider the relationship between it and ocean bottom pressure variation. Taken together, we can say that the barotropic flow in the direction of south-west extends to the bottom of the sea in this area. Therefore, the existence of local cross-isobath currents is suggested. Our result indicates bathymetry has dynamic effect to ocean circulation on local scale and at the same time the surface ocean circulation contributes to ocean bottom pressure considerably.

Simulations of coupled, Antarctic ice-ocean evolution using POP2x and BISICLES (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, S. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Martin, D. F.; Maltrud, M. E.; Hoffman, M. J.

2013-12-01

We present initial results from Antarctic, ice-ocean coupled simulations using large-scale ocean circulation and land ice evolution models. The ocean model, POP2x is a modified version of POP, a fully eddying, global-scale ocean model (Smith and Gent, 2002). POP2x allows for circulation beneath ice shelf cavities using the method of partial top cells (Losch, 2008). Boundary layer physics, which control fresh water and salt exchange at the ice-ocean interface, are implemented following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (1999), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008; Kimura et al., 2013) and with results from other idealized ice-ocean coupling test cases (e.g., Goldberg et al., 2012). The land ice model, BISICLES (Cornford et al., 2012), includes a 1st-order accurate momentum balance (L1L2) and uses block structured, adaptive-mesh refinement to more accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. For idealized test cases focused on marine-ice sheet dynamics, BISICLES output compares very favorably relative to simulations based on the full, nonlinear Stokes momentum balance (MISMIP-3d; Pattyn et al., 2013). Here, we present large-scale (southern ocean) simulations using POP2x with fixed ice shelf geometries, which are used to obtain and validate modeled submarine melt rates against observations. These melt rates are, in turn, used to force evolution of the BISICLES model. An offline-coupling scheme, which we compare with the ice-ocean coupling work of Goldberg et al. (2012), is then used to sequentially update the sub-shelf cavity geometry seen by POP2x.

Longitudinal biases in the Seychelles Dome simulated by 35 ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagura, Motoki; Sasaki, Wataru; Tozuka, Tomoki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Behera, Swadhin K.; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-02-01

Seychelles Dome refers to the shallow climatological thermocline in the southwestern Indian Ocean, where ocean wave dynamics efficiently affect sea surface temperature, allowing sea surface temperature anomalies to be predicted up to 1-2 years in advance. Accurate reproduction of the dome by ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) is essential for successful seasonal predictions in the Indian Ocean. This study examines the Seychelles Dome as simulated by 35 CGCMs, including models used in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Among the 35 CGCMs, 14 models erroneously produce an upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin whereas the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The annual mean Ekman pumping velocity in these models is found to be almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region. This result is inconsistent with observations, in which Ekman upwelling acts as the main cause of the Seychelles Dome. In the models reproducing an eastward-displaced dome, easterly biases are prominent along the equator in boreal summer and fall, which result in shallow thermocline biases along the Java and Sumatra coasts via Kelvin wave dynamics and a spurious upwelling dome in the region. Compared to the CMIP3 models, the CMIP5 models are even worse in simulating the dome longitudes.

Stochastic Geometric Models with Non-stationary Spatial Correlations in Lagrangian Fluid Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gay-Balmaz, François; Holm, Darryl D.

2018-01-01

Inspired by spatiotemporal observations from satellites of the trajectories of objects drifting near the surface of the ocean in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's "Global Drifter Program", this paper develops data-driven stochastic models of geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD) with non-stationary spatial correlations representing the dynamical behaviour of oceanic currents. Three models are considered. Model 1 from Holm (Proc R Soc A 471:20140963, 2015) is reviewed, in which the spatial correlations are time independent. Two new models, called Model 2 and Model 3, introduce two different symmetry breaking mechanisms by which the spatial correlations may be advected by the flow. These models are derived using reduction by symmetry of stochastic variational principles, leading to stochastic Hamiltonian systems, whose momentum maps, conservation laws and Lie-Poisson bracket structures are used in developing the new stochastic Hamiltonian models of GFD.

Stochastic Geometric Models with Non-stationary Spatial Correlations in Lagrangian Fluid Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gay-Balmaz, François; Holm, Darryl D.

2018-06-01

Inspired by spatiotemporal observations from satellites of the trajectories of objects drifting near the surface of the ocean in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's "Global Drifter Program", this paper develops data-driven stochastic models of geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD) with non-stationary spatial correlations representing the dynamical behaviour of oceanic currents. Three models are considered. Model 1 from Holm (Proc R Soc A 471:20140963, 2015) is reviewed, in which the spatial correlations are time independent. Two new models, called Model 2 and Model 3, introduce two different symmetry breaking mechanisms by which the spatial correlations may be advected by the flow. These models are derived using reduction by symmetry of stochastic variational principles, leading to stochastic Hamiltonian systems, whose momentum maps, conservation laws and Lie-Poisson bracket structures are used in developing the new stochastic Hamiltonian models of GFD.

Anomalous Subsidence at Rifted Continental Margins: Distinguishing Mantle Dynamic Topography from Anomalous Oceanic Crustal Thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowie, L.; Kusznir, N. J.

2012-12-01

It has been proposed that some continental rifted margins have anomalous subsidence histories and that at breakup they were elevated at shallower bathymetries than the isostatic response of classical rift models (McKenzie 1978) would predict. The existence of anomalous syn or post breakup subsidence of this form would have important implications for our understanding of the geodynamics of continental breakup and rifted continental margin formation, margin subsidence history and the evolution of syn and post breakup depositional systems. We have investigated three rifted continental margins; the Gulf of Aden, Galicia Bank and the Gulf of Lions, to determine whether the oceanic crust in the ocean-continent transition of these margins has present day anomalous subsidence and if so, whether it is caused by mantle dynamic topography or anomalous oceanic crustal thickness. Residual depth anomalies (RDA) corrected for sediment loading, using flexural backstripping and decompaction, have been calculated by comparing observed and age predicted oceanic bathymetries in order to identify anomalous oceanic bathymetry and subsidence at these margins. Age predicted bathymetric anomalies have been calculated using the thermal plate model predictions from Crosby & McKenzie (2009). Non-zero sediment corrected RDAs may result from anomalous oceanic crustal thickness with respect to the global average, or from mantle dynamic uplift. Positive RDAs may result from thicker than average oceanic crust or mantle dynamic uplift; negative RDAs may result from thinner than average oceanic crust or mantle dynamic subsidence. Gravity inversion incorporating a lithosphere thermal gravity anomaly correction and sediment thickness from 2D seismic data has been used to determine Moho depth and oceanic crustal basement thickness. The reference Moho depths used in the gravity inversion have been calibrated against seismic refraction Moho depths. The gravity inversion crustal basement thicknesses together with Airy isostasy have been used to predict a "synthetic" gravity derived RDA. Sediment corrected RDA for oceanic crust in the Gulf of Aden are positive (+750m) indicating anomalous uplift with respect to normal subsidence. Gravity inversion predicts normal thickness oceanic crust and a zero "synthetic" gravity derived RDA in the oceanic domain. The difference between the positive sediment corrected RDA and the zero "synthetic" gravity derived RDA, implies that the anomalous subsidence reported in the Gulf of Aden is the result of mantle dynamic uplift. For the oceanic crust outboard of Galicia Bank both the sediment corrected RDA and the "synthetic" gravity derived RDA are negative (-800m) and of similar magnitude, indicating anomalous subsidence, which is the result of anomalously thin oceanic crust, not mantle dynamic topography. We conclude that there is negligible mantle dynamic topography influencing the Galicia Bank region. In the Gulf of Lions, gravity inversion predicts thinner than average oceanic crust. Both sediment corrected RDA (-1km) and "synthetic" gravity derived RDA (-500m) are negative. The more negative sediment corrected RDA compared with the "synthetic" gravity derived RDA implies that the anomalous subsidence in the Gulf of Lions is the result of mantle dynamic subsidence as well as thinner than average oceanic crust.

Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP +), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP +) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Asay-Davis, Xylar S.; Cornford, Stephen L.; Durand, Gaël

Coupled ice sheet-ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of marine ice sheets and tidewater glaciers, from process studies to future projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. The Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP) is a community effort aimed at designing and coordinating a series of model intercomparison projects (MIPs) for model evaluation in idealized setups, model verification based on observations, and future projections for key regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we describe computationalmore » experiments constituting three interrelated MIPs for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities. These consist of ice sheet experiments under the Marine Ice Sheet MIP third phase (MISMIP+), ocean experiments under the Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP second phase (ISOMIP+) and coupled ice sheet-ocean experiments under the MISOMIP first phase (MISOMIP1). All three MIPs use a shared domain with idealized bedrock topography and forcing, allowing the coupled simulations (MISOMIP1) to be compared directly to the individual component simulations (MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+). The experiments, which have qualitative similarities to Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf and the adjacent region of the Amundsen Sea, are designed to explore the effects of changes in ocean conditions, specifically the temperature at depth, on basal melting and ice dynamics. In future work, differences between model results will form the basis for the evaluation of the participating models.« less

Comparison between geodetic and oceanographic approaches to estimate mean dynamic topography for vertical datum unification: evaluation at Australian tide gauges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filmer, M. S.; Hughes, C. W.; Woodworth, P. L.; Featherstone, W. E.; Bingham, R. J.

2018-04-01

The direct method of vertical datum unification requires estimates of the ocean's mean dynamic topography (MDT) at tide gauges, which can be sourced from either geodetic or oceanographic approaches. To assess the suitability of different types of MDT for this purpose, we evaluate 13 physics-based numerical ocean models and six MDTs computed from observed geodetic and/or ocean data at 32 tide gauges around the Australian coast. We focus on the viability of numerical ocean models for vertical datum unification, classifying the 13 ocean models used as either independent (do not contain assimilated geodetic data) or non-independent (do contain assimilated geodetic data). We find that the independent and non-independent ocean models deliver similar results. Maximum differences among ocean models and geodetic MDTs reach >150 mm at several Australian tide gauges and are considered anomalous at the 99% confidence level. These differences appear to be of geodetic origin, but without additional independent information, or formal error estimates for each model, some of these errors remain inseparable. Our results imply that some ocean models have standard deviations of differences with other MDTs (using geodetic and/or ocean observations) at Australian tide gauges, and with levelling between some Australian tide gauges, of ˜ ± 50 mm . This indicates that they should be considered as an alternative to geodetic MDTs for the direct unification of vertical datums. They can also be used as diagnostics for errors in geodetic MDT in coastal zones, but the inseparability problem remains, where the error cannot be discriminated between the geoid model or altimeter-derived mean sea surface.

Tow Tank Dynamic Test Rig Drawings and Bill of Materials for the Aquantis 2.5 MW Ocean Current Generation Device

DOE Data Explorer

Swales, Henry; Banko, Richard; Coakley, David

2015-06-03

Aquantis 2.5 MW Ocean Current Generation Device, Tow Tank Dynamic Test Rig Drawings and Bill of Materials. This submission contains information on the equipment for the scaled model tow tank testing. The information includes hardware, test protocols, and plans.

Initial tsunami signals in the lithosphere-ocean-atmosphere medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novik, O.; Ershov, S.; Mikhaylovskaya, I.

Satellite and ground based instrumentations for monitoring of dynamical processes under the Ocean floor 3 4 of the Earth surface and resulting catastrophic events should be adapted to unknown physical nature of transformation of the oceanic lithosphere s energy of seismogenic deformations into measurable acoustic electromagnetic EM temperature and hydrodynamic tsunami waves To describe the initial up to a tsunami wave far from a shore stage of this transformation and to understand mechanism of EM signals arising above the Ocean during seismic activation we formulate a nonlinear mathematical model of seismo-hydro-EM geophysical field interaction in the lithosphere-Ocean-atmosphere medium from the upper mantle under the Ocean up to the ionosphere domain D The model is based on the theory of elasticity electrodynamics fluid dynamics thermodynamics and geophysical data On the basis of this model and its mathematical investigation we calculate generation and propagation of different see above waves in the basin of a model marginal sea the data on the central part of the Sea of Japan were used At the moment t 0 the dynamic interaction process is supposed to be caused by weak may be precursory sub-vertical elastic displacements with the amplitude duration and main frequency of the order of a few cm sec and tenth of Hz respectively at the depth of 37 km under the sea level i e in the upper mantle Other seismic excitations may be considered as well The lithosphere EM signal is generated in the upper mantle conductive

Dyamical Systems Theory and Lagrangian Data Assimilation in 4D Geophysical Fluid Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

The long-term goal of our project (known as OCEAN 3D +1) was to better understand and predict ocean circulation features that are fundamentally three...dimensional in space and that vary in time. In particular, we sought to quantify the dynamical processes that govern the formation , evolution, and...predictability of 3D +1 transport pathways in the ocean. Our approach was to develop algorithms to thoroughly analyze a hierarchy of model and

A theory for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cane, M. A.; Zebiak, S. E.

1985-01-01

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is presented for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation that reproduces its major features, including its recurrence at irregular intervals. The interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle is maintained by deterministic interactions in the tropical Pacific region. Ocean dynamics alter sea-surface temperature, changing the atmospheric heating; the resulting changes in surface wind alter the ocean dynamics. Annually varying mean conditions largely determine the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of El Nino events.

Charney's Influence on Modern Oceanography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cane, M. A.

2017-12-01

In this talk I will review some of Jule Charney's impacts on current oceanographic research. He was of course a major seminal figure in geophysical fluid dynamics, an approach to understanding the atmosphere and oceans that has been thoroughly absorbed in contemporary thinking. In oceanography, his publications make vorticity dynamics the centerpiece of his analysis. Here I pursue two other aspects of his work. The first is to note that his 1955 paper "The Gulf Stream as an inertial boundary layer" appears to be the earliest numerical model in oceanography. The second is that his work on the equatorial undercurrent leads to a simplification of equatorial ocean structure that was exploited by Zebiak and Cane in their model for ENSO, and thus structures later views of how equatorial ocean dynamics influence sea surface temperature.

Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks in Coupled Climate Models and its relationship to the Recharge Oscillator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayr, Tobias; Wengel, Christian; Latif, Mojib

2016-04-01

Dommenget (2010) found that El Niño-like variability, termed Slab Ocean El Niño, can exist in the absence of ocean dynamics and is driven by the interaction of the atmospheric surface heat fluxes and the heat content of the upper ocean. Further, Dommenget et al. (2014) report the Slab Ocean El Niño is not an artefact of the ECHAM5-AGCM coupled to a slab ocean model. In fact, atmospheric feedbacks crucial to the Slab Ocean El Niño can also be found in many state-of-the-art coupled climate models participating in CMIP3 and CMIP5, so that ENSO in many CMIP models can be understood as a mixed recharge oscillator/Slab Ocean El Niño mode. Here we show further analysis of the Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks in coupled models. The BCCR_CM2.0 climate model from the CMIP3 data base, which has a very large equatorial cold bias, has an El Niño that is mostly driven by Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks and is used as an example to describe Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks in a coupled model. In the BCCR_CM2.0, the ENSO-related variability in the 20°C isotherm (Z20), a measure of upper ocean heat content, is decoupled from the first mode of the seasonal cycle-related variability, while the two are coupled in observations, with ENSO being phase-locked to the seasonal cycle. Further analysis of the seasonal cycle in Z20 using SODA Ocean Reanalysis reveals two different regimes in the seasonal cycle along the equator: The first regime, to which ENSO is phase-locked, extends over the west and central equatorial Pacific and is driven by subsurface ocean dynamics. The second regime, extending in observations only over the cold tongue region, is driven by the seasonal cycle at the sea surface and is shifted by roughly six months relative to the first regime. In a series of experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) with different mean states due to tuning in the convection parameters, we can show that the strength of the equatorial cold bias and the coupling strength between the seasonal cycle of Z20 and ENSO are anti-correlated, i.e. a strong equatorial cold bias suppresses recharge oscillator dynamics and enhances Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks, supporting the results from the BCCR_CM2.0. This can be explained as with a stronger cold bias the second regime of the seasonal cycle in Z20, which extends in observations only over the small cold tongue region, expands westward and becomes more important, so that it decouples ENSO from the seasonal cycle in Z20. This has implications for some major characteristics of the ENSO like the propagation of SST anomalies, the phase locking of SST to the seasonal cycle, or the nonlinearity of ENSO. Dommenget, D., 2010: The slab ocean El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20701, doi:10.1029/2010GL044888. - - , S. Haase, T. Bayr, and C. Frauen, 2014: Analysis of the Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks in observed and simulated ENSO dynamics. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2057-0.

Modeling Europa's Ice-Ocean Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elsenousy, A.; Vance, S.; Bills, B. G.

2014-12-01

This work focuses on modeling the ice-ocean interface on Jupiter's Moon (Europa); mainly from the standpoint of heat and salt transfer relationship with emphasis on the basal ice growth rate and its implications to Europa's tidal response. Modeling the heat and salt flux at Europa's ice/ocean interface is necessary to understand the dynamics of Europa's ocean and its interaction with the upper ice shell as well as the history of active turbulence at this area. To achieve this goal, we used McPhee et al., 2008 parameterizations on Earth's ice/ocean interface that was developed to meet Europa's ocean dynamics. We varied one parameter at a time to test its influence on both; "h" the basal ice growth rate and on "R" the double diffusion tendency strength. The double diffusion tendency "R" was calculated as the ratio between the interface heat exchange coefficient αh to the interface salt exchange coefficient αs. Our preliminary results showed a strong double diffusion tendency R ~200 at Europa's ice-ocean interface for plausible changes in the heat flux due to onset or elimination of a hydrothermal activity, suggesting supercooling and a strong tendency for forming frazil ice.

Effects of dynamic long-period ocean tides on changes in earth's rotation rate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nam, Young; Dickman, S. R.

1990-01-01

As a generalization of the zonal response coefficient first introduced by Agnew and Farrell (1978), the zonal response function kappa of the solid earth-ocean system is defined as the ratio, in the frequency domain, of the tidal change in earth's rotation rate to the tide-generating potential. Amplitudes and phases of kappa for the monthly, fortnightly, and nine-day lunar tides are estimated from 2 1/2 years of VLBI UT1 observations, corrected for atmospheric angular momentum effects using NMC wind and pressure series. Using the dynamic ocean tide model of Dickman (1988, 1989), amplitudes and phases of kappa for an elastic earth-ocean system are predicted. The predictions confirm earlier results which found that dynamic effects of the longer-period ocean tides reduce the amplitude of kappa by about 1 percent.

Simulations of Antarctic ice shelves and the Southern Ocean in the POP2x ocean model coupled with the BISICLES ice-sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asay-Davis, Xylar; Martin, Daniel; Price, Stephen; Maltrud, Mathew

2014-05-01

We present initial results from Antarctic, ice-ocean coupled simulations using large-scale ocean circulation and ice-sheet evolution models. This presentation focuses on the ocean model, POP2x, which is a modified version of POP, a fully eddying, global-scale ocean model (Smith and Gent, 2002). POP2x allows for circulation beneath ice shelf cavities using the method of partial top cells (Losch, 2008). Boundary layer physics, which control fresh water and salt exchange at the ice-ocean interface, are implemented following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013) and with results from other idealized ice-ocean coupling test cases (e.g., Goldberg et al., 2012). A companion presentation, 'Fully resolved whole-continent Antarctica simulations using the BISICLES AMR ice sheet model coupled with the POP2x Ocean Model', concentrates more on the ice-sheet model, BISICLES (Cornford et al., 2012), which includes a 1st-order accurate momentum balance (L1L2) and uses block structured, adaptive-mesh refinement to more accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. For idealized test cases focused on marine-ice sheet dynamics, BISICLES output compares very favorably relative to simulations based on the full, nonlinear Stokes momentum balance (MISMIP-3d; Pattyn et al., 2013). Here, we present large-scale (Southern Ocean) simulations using POP2x at 0.1 degree resolution with fixed ice shelf geometries, which are used to obtain and validate modeled submarine melt rates against observations. These melt rates are, in turn, used to force evolution of the BISICLES model. An offline-coupling scheme, which we compare with the ice-ocean coupling work of Goldberg et al. (2012), is then used to sequentially update the sub-shelf cavity geometry seen by POP2x.

Climate Model Tests of the Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vavrus, S.; Kutzbach, J.; Philippon, G.

2008-12-01

We test the hypothesis that greenhouse gas emissions produced by the combination of early and recent human activities, augmented by additional rises in greenhouse gases through ocean feedbacks, have kept the climate warmer than its natural level and offset an incipient glaciation. We use four different configurations of NCAR's Community Climate System Model to investigate the natural climate that should exist today if CO2 and CH4 concentrations had fallen to their average levels reached during previous interglaciations. The model simulations consist of three using a coupled atmosphere-slab ocean configuration---fixed land cover at moderate (T42) and high (T85) model resolution and interactive vegetation composition at T42 resolution--and one employing a coupled atmosphere-dynamical ocean configuration and fixed land cover at T42 resolution. With greenhouse gas concentrations lowered to their estimated natural levels, global mean temperature falls by 2.5-3.0 K in all four experiments. Of the total global cooling with fixed land cover and moderate model resolution, 38% (62%) is attributable to early agricultural activities (industrialization), while early agriculture accounts for approximately half of the expanded permanent snow cover area. The greenhouse cooling triggers widespread glacial inception in the Northern Hemisphere, where permanent snow cover expands by at least 80% and even more with the addition of enhanced model processes: 130% with the dynamical ocean, 150% with high (T85) model resolution, and 200% with vegetation feedbacks included. The regional pattern of incipient glaciation is strongly influenced by atmospheric and circulation changes, sea ice feedbacks, and model resolution. The simulation with a dynamical ocean produces a decrease in vertically integrated global ocean temperature of 1.25 K, a 20% weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning cell, and an expansion of sea ice and reduced upwelling in the Southern Ocean. Viewed from the perspective of explaining the unusual late-Holocene increases of CO2 that occurred prior to the Industrial Revolution, these simulated changes in ocean temperature, sea ice cover, and circulation (with sign reversed) support the hypothesis that early agriculture played a role in initiating anomalous warming that thwarted incipient glaciation beginning several thousand years ago. Decreased ocean solubility globally and positive ocean/sea-ice feedbacks in the Southern Hemisphere probably augmented the initial CO2 increase and caused additional warming.

Pathways of Atlantic Waters in the Nordic seas: locally eddy-permitting ocean simulation in a global setup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wekerle, C.; Wang, Q.; Danilov, S.; Jung, T.; Schourup-Kristensen, V.

2016-02-01

Atlantic Water (AW) passes through the Nordic Seas and enters the Arctic Ocean through the shallow Barents Sea and the deep Fram Strait. Since the 1990's, observations indicate a series of anomalously warm pulses of Atlantic Water that entered the Arctic Ocean. In fact, poleward oceanic heat transport may even increase in the future, which might have implications for the heat uptake in the Arctic Ocean as well as for the sea ice cover. The ability of models to faithfully simulate the pathway of the AW and accompanying dynamics is thus of high climate relevance. In this study, we explore the potential of a global multi-resolution sea ice-ocean model with a locally eddy-permitting resolution (around 4.5 km) in the Nordic seas region and Arctic Ocean in improving the representation of Atlantic Water inflow, and more broadly, the dynamics of the circulation in the Northern North Atlantic and Arctic. The simulation covers the time period 1969-2009. We find that locally increased resolution improves the localization and thickness of the Atlantic Water layer in the Nordic seas, compared with a 20 km resolution reference simulation. In particular, the inflow of Atlantic Waters through the Greenland Scotland Ridge and the narrow branches of the Norwegian Atlantic Current can be realistically represented. Lateral spreading due to simulated eddies essentially reduces the bias in the surface temperature. In addition, a qualitatively good agreement of the simulated eddy kinetic energy field with observations can be achieved. This study indicates that a substantial improvement in representing local ocean dynamics can be reached through the local refinement, which requires a rather moderate computational effort. The successful model assessment allows us to further investigate the variability and mechanisms behind Atlantic Water transport into the Arctic Ocean.

Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhatt, Uma S.; Wackerbauer, Renate; Polyakov, Igor V.

The goal of this research was to apply fractional and non-linear analysis techniques in order to develop a more complete characterization of climate change and variability for the oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric components of the Earth System. This research applied two measures of dynamical characteristics of time series, the R/S method of calculating the Hurst exponent and Renyi entropy, to observational and modeled climate data in order to evaluate how well climate models capture the long-term dynamics evident in observations. Fractional diffusion analysis was applied to ARGO ocean buoy data to quantify ocean transport. Self organized maps were appliedmore » to North Pacific sea level pressure and analyzed in ways to improve seasonal predictability for Alaska fire weather. This body of research shows that these methods can be used to evaluate climate models and shed light on climate mechanisms (i.e., understanding why something happens). With further research, these methods show promise for improving seasonal to longer time scale forecasts of climate.« less

Modeling High-Resolution Coastal Ocean Dynamics with COAMPS: System Overview, Applications and Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allard, R. A.; Campbell, T. J.; Edwards, K. L.; Smith, T.; Martin, P.; Hebert, D. A.; Rogers, W.; Dykes, J. D.; Jacobs, G. A.; Spence, P. L.; Bartels, B.

2014-12-01

The Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) is an atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system developed by the Naval Research Laboratory which can be configured to cycle regional forecasts/analysis models in single-model (atmosphere, ocean, and wave) or coupled-model (atmosphere-ocean, ocean-wave, and atmosphere-ocean-wave) modes. The model coupling is performed using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The ocean component is the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), and the wave components include Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) and WaveWatch-III. NCOM has been modified to include wetting and drying, the effects of Stokes drift current, wave radiation stresses due to horizontal gradients of the momentum flux of surface waves, enhancement of bottom drag in shallow water, and enhanced vertical mixing due to Langmuir turbulence. An overview of the modeling system including ocean data assimilation and specification of boundary conditions will be presented. Results from a high-resolution (10-250m) modeling study from the Surfzone Coastal Oil Pathways Experiment (SCOPE) near Ft. Walton Beach, Florida in December 2013 will be presented. ®COAMPS is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory

The seasonal response of the Held-Suarez climate model to prescribed ocean temperature anomalies. II - Dynamical analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, T. J.

1984-01-01

The heating associated with equatorial, subtropical, and midlatitude ocean temperature anamolies in the Held-Suarez climate model is analyzed. The local and downstream response to the anomalies is analyzed, first by examining the seasonal variation in heating associated with each ocean temperature anomaly, and then by combining knowledge of the heating with linear dynamical theory in order to develop a more comprehensive explanation of the seasonal variation in local and downstream atmospheric response to each anomaly. The extent to which the linear theory of propagating waves can assist the interpretation of the remote cross-latitudinal response of the model to the ocean temperature anomalies is considered. Alternative hypotheses that attempt to avoid the contradictions inherent in a strict application of linear theory are investigated, and the impact of sampling errors on the assessment of statistical significance is also examined.

Oceanic biogeochemical controls on global dynamics of persistent organic pollutants.

PubMed

Dachs, Jordi; Lohmann, Rainer; Ockenden, Wendy A; Méjanelle, Laurence; Eisenreich, Steven J; Jones, Kevin C

2002-10-15

Understanding and quantifying the global dynamics and sinks of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is important to assess their environmental impact and fate. Air-surface exchange processes, where temperature plays a central role in controlling volatilization and deposition, are of key importance in controlling global POP dynamics. The present study is an assessment of the role of oceanic biogeochemical processes, notably phytoplankton uptake and vertical fluxes of particles, on the global dynamics of POPs. Field measurements of atmospheric polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polychlorinated dibenzodioxins (PCDDs), and furans (PCDFs) are combined with remote sensing estimations of oceanic temperature, wind speed, and chlorophyll, to model the interactions between air-water exchange, phytoplankton uptake, and export of organic matter and POPs out of the mixed surface ocean layer. Deposition is enhanced in the mid-high latitudes and is driven by sinking marine particulate matter, rather than by a cold condensation effect. However, the relative contribution of the biological pump is a function of the physical-chemical properties of POPs. It is concluded that oceanic biogeochemical processes play a critical role in controlling the global dynamics and the ultimate sink of POPs.

NCAR CSM ocean model by the NCAR oceanography section. Technical note

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

This technical note documents the ocean component of the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM). The ocean code has been developed from the Modular Ocean Model (version 1.1) which was developed and maintained at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton. As a tribute to Mike Cox, and because the material is still relevant, the first four sections of this technical note are a straight reproduction from the GFDL Technical Report that Mike wrote in 1984. The remaining sections document how the NCAR Oceanography Section members have developed the MOM 1.1 code, and how it is forced, in order tomore » produce the NCAR CSM Ocean Model.« less

The self-consistent dynamic pole tide in global oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dickman, S. R.

1985-01-01

The dynamic pole tide is characterized in a self-consistent manner by means of introducing a single nondifferential matrix equation compatible with the Liouville equation, modelling the ocean as global and of uniform depth. The deviations of the theory from the realistic ocean, associated with the nonglobality of the latter, are also given consideration, with an inference that in realistic oceans long-period modes of resonances would be increasingly likely to exist. The analysis of the nature of the pole tide and its effects on the Chandler wobble indicate that departures of the pole tide from the equilibrium may indeed be minimal.

Inferring Dynamics from the Wavenumber Spectra of an Eddying Global Ocean Model with Embedded Tides

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-12

MODEL WAVENUMBER SPECTRA (12(112 Ocean Model (HYCOM) [Chassignet et al., 2007 ; Metzger et al., 2010] with 1/12.5° (approximately 9 km) equatorial...Chassignet, E. P., H. E. Ilurlburt. O. M. Smedstad, G. R. Halliwcll, P. J. Hogan, A. J. Wallcraft, R. Baraille. and R. Bleck ( 2007 ), The HYCOM (HYbrid...tide models, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 25,173 25,194, doi:10.1029/97JC00445. Stammer , D. (1997), Global characteristics of ocean variability estimated

Dynamic sea surface topography, gravity and improved orbit accuracies from the direct evaluation of SEASAT altimeter data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marsh, J. G.; Lerch, F.; Koblinsky, C. J.; Klosko, S. M.; Robbins, J. W.; Williamson, R. G.; Patel, G. B.

1989-01-01

A method for the simultaneous solution of dynamic ocean topography, gravity and orbits using satellite altimeter data is described. A GEM-T1 based gravitational model called PGS-3337 that incorporates Seasat altimetry, surface gravimetry and satellite tracking data has been determined complete to degree and order 50. The altimeter data is utilized as a dynamic observation of the satellite's height above the sea surface with a degree 10 model of dynamic topography being recovered simultaneously with the orbit parameters, gravity and tidal terms in this model. PGS-3337 has a geoid uncertainty of 60 cm root-mean-square (RMS) globally, with the uncertainty over the altimeter tracked ocean being in the 25 cm range. Doppler determined orbits for Seasat, show large improvements, with the sub-30 cm radial accuracies being achieved. When altimeter data is used in orbit determination, radial orbital accuracies of 20 cm are achieved. The RMS of fit to the altimeter data directly gives 30 cm fits for Seasat when using PGS-3337 and its geoid and dynamic topography model. This performance level is two to three times better than that achieved with earlier Goddard earth models (GEM) using the dynamic topography from long-term oceanographic averages. The recovered dynamic topography reveals the global long wavelength circulation of the oceans with a resolution of 1500 km. The power in the dynamic topography recovery is now found to be closer to that of oceanographic studies than for previous satellite solutions. This is attributed primarily to the improved modeling of the geoid which has occurred. Study of the altimeter residuals reveals regions where tidal models are poor and sea state effects are major limitations.

Anticipated Improvements to Net Surface Freshwater Fluxes from GPM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.

2005-01-01

Evaporation and precipitation over the oceans play very important roles in the global water cycle, upper-ocean heat budget, ocean dynamics, and coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics. In the conventional representation of the terrestrial water cycle, the assumed role of the oceans is to act as near-infinite reservoirs of water with the main drivers of the water cycle being land- atmosphere interactions in which excess precipitation (P) over evaporation (E) is returned to the oceans as surface runoff and baseflow. Whereas this perspective is valid for short space and time scales -- fundamental principles, available observed estimates, and results from models indicate that the oceans play a far more important role in the large-scale water cycle at seasonal and longer timescales. Approximately 70-80% of the total global evaporation and precipitation occurs over oceans. Moreover, latent heat release into the atmosphere over the oceans is the major heat source driving global atmospheric circulations, with the moisture transported by circulations from oceans to continents being the major source of water precipitating over land. Notably, the major impediment in understanding and modeling the oceans role in the global water cycle is the lack of reliable net surface freshwater flux estimates (E - P fluxes) at the salient spatial and temporal resolutions, i.e., consistent coupled weekly to monthly E - P gridded datasets.

Paleobathymetric grids of the Cenozoic Southern Ocean - Opening the door towards improved reconstructions of the Southern Ocean's past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hochmuth, K.; Gohl, K.; Leitchenkov, G. L.; Sauermilch, I.; Whittaker, J. M.; De Santis, L.; Olivo, E.; Uenzelmann-Neben, G.; Davy, B. W.

2017-12-01

Although the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in the global climate and ocean current system, paleo-ocean circulation models of the Southern Ocean suffer from missing boundary conditions. A more accurate representation of the geometry of the seafloor and their dynamics over long time-scales are key for enabling more precise reconstructions of the development of the paleo-currents, the paleo-environment and the Antarctic ice sheets. The accurate parameterisation of these models controls the meaning and implications of regional and global paleo-climate models. The dynamics of ocean currents in proximity of the continental margins is also controlled by the development of the regional seafloor morphology of the conjugate continental shelves, slopes and rises. The reassessment of all available reflection seismic and borehole data from Antarctica as well as its conjugate margins of Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and South America, allows us to create paleobathymetric grids for various time slices during the Cenozoic. Those grids inform us about sediment distribution and volume as well a local sedimentation rates. The earliest targeted time slice of the Eocene/Oligocene Boundary marks a significant turning point towards an icehouse climate. From latest Eocene to earliest Oligocene the Southern Ocean changes fundamentally from a post greenhouse to an icehouse environment with the establishment of a vast continental ice sheet on the Antarctic continent. With the calculated sediment distribution maps, we can evaluate the dynamics of the sedimentary cover as well as the development of structural obstacles such as oceanic plateaus and ridges. The ultimate aim of this project is - as a community based effort - to create paleobathymetric grids at various time slices such as the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum and the Pliocene/Pleistocene, and eventually mimic the time steps used within the modelling community. The observation of sediment distribution and local sediment volumes open the door towards more sophisticated paleo-topograpy studies of the Antarctic continent and more detailed studies of the paleo-circulation. Local paleo - water depths at the oceanic gateways or the position of paleo-shelf edges highly influence the regional circulation patterns supporting more elaborated climate models.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability in Antarctic Sea-Ice Dynamics, and Its Impact on Surface Fluxes and Water Mass Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drinkwater, Mark R.

1999-01-01

Strong seasonal and interannual signals in Antarctic bottom-water outflow remain unexplained yet are highly correlated with anomalies in net sea-ice growth in coastal polynyas. The mechanisms responsible for driving salination and replenishment and rejuvenation of the dense shelf "source" waters likely also generate pulses of bottom water outflow. The objective of this research is to investigate time-scales of variability in the dynamics of sea-ice in the Southern Ocean in order to determine the primary sites for production of dense shelf waters. We are using a merged satellite/buoy sea-ice motion data set for the period 1978-present day to compute the dynamics of opening and closing of coastal polynyas over the continental shelf. The Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Model (OCCAM) ocean general circulation model with coupled sea-ice dynamics is presently forced using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data to simulate fluxes and the salination impact of the ocean shelf regions. This work is relevant in the context of measuring the influence of polar sea-ice dynamics upon polar ocean characteristics, and thereby upon global thermohaline ocean circulation. Interannual variability in simulated net freezing rate in the Southern Weddell Sea is shown for the period 1986-1993. There is a pronounced maximum of ice production in 1988 and minimum in 1991 in response to anomalies in equatorward meridional wind velocity. This follows a similar approximate 8-year interannual cycle in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and satellite-derived ice-edge anomalies reported elsewhere as the "Antarctic Circumpolar Wave." The amplitude of interannual fluctuations in annual net ice production are about 40% of the mean value, implying significant interannual variance in brine rejection and upper ocean heat loss. Southward anomalies in wind stress induce negative anomalies in open water production, which are observed in passive microwave satellite images. Thus, cycles of enhanced poleward wind stress reduce ice growth by compacting the ice along the coastline and closing open water in leads and polynyas. Model simulations confirm that years of low ice production, such as 1991, coincide with years of lower than normal bottom water outflow. Future plans include the assimilation of satellite ice concentrations and ice drift dynamics to more accurately constrain boundary conditions in the model.

On the Interactions Between Planetary and Mesoscale Dynamics in the Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grooms, I.; Julien, K. A.; Fox-Kemper, B.

2011-12-01

Multiple-scales asymptotic methods are used to investigate the interaction of planetary and mesoscale dynamics in the oceans. We find three regimes. In the first, the slow, large-scale planetary flow sets up a baroclinically unstable background which leads to vigorous mesoscale eddy generation, but the eddy dynamics do not affect the planetary dynamics. In the second, the planetary flow feels the effects of the eddies, but appears to be unable to generate them. The first two regimes rely on horizontally isotropic large-scale dynamics. In the third regime, large-scale anisotropy, as exists for example in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and in western boundary currents, allows the large-scale dynamics to both generate and respond to mesoscale eddies. We also discuss how the investigation may be brought to bear on the problem of parameterization of unresolved mesoscale dynamics in ocean general circulation models.

Sequential estimation and satellite data assimilation in meteorology and oceanography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghil, M.

1986-01-01

The central theme of this review article is the role that dynamics plays in estimating the state of the atmosphere and of the ocean from incomplete and noisy data. Objective analysis and inverse methods represent an attempt at relying mostly on the data and minimizing the role of dynamics in the estimation. Four-dimensional data assimilation tries to balance properly the roles of dynamical and observational information. Sequential estimation is presented as the proper framework for understanding this balance, and the Kalman filter as the ideal, optimal procedure for data assimilation. The optimal filter computes forecast error covariances of a given atmospheric or oceanic model exactly, and hence data assimilation should be closely connected with predictability studies. This connection is described, and consequences drawn for currently active areas of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences, namely, mesoscale meteorology, medium and long-range forecasting, and upper-ocean dynamics.

Automatic tracking of dynamical evolutions of oceanic mesoscale eddies with satellite observation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Liang; Li, Qiu-Yang

2017-04-01

The oceanic mesoscale eddies play a major role in ocean climate system. To analyse spatiotemporal dynamics of oceanic mesoscale eddies, the Genealogical Evolution Model (GEM) based on satellite data is developed, which is an efficient logical model used to track dynamic evolution of mesoscale eddies in the ocean. It can distinguish different dynamic processes (e.g., merging and splitting) within a dynamic evolution pattern, which is difficult to accomplish using other tracking methods. To this end, a mononuclear eddy detection method was firstly developed with simple segmentation strategies, e.g. watershed algorithm. The algorithm is very fast by searching the steepest descent path. Second, the GEM uses a two-dimensional similarity vector (i.e. a pair of ratios of overlap area between two eddies to the area of each eddy) rather than a scalar to measure the similarity between eddies, which effectively solves the ''missing eddy" problem (temporarily lost eddy in tracking). Third, for tracking when an eddy splits, GEM uses both "parent" (the original eddy) and "child" (eddy split from parent) and the dynamic processes are described as birth and death of different generations. Additionally, a new look-ahead approach with selection rules effectively simplifies computation and recording. All of the computational steps are linear and do not include iteration. Given the pixel number of the target region L, the maximum number of eddies M, the number N of look-ahead time steps, and the total number of time steps T, the total computer time is O (LM(N+1)T). The tracking of each eddy is very smooth because we require that the snapshots of each eddy on adjacent days overlap one another. Although eddy splitting or merging is ubiquitous in the ocean, they have different geographic distribution in the Northern Pacific Ocean. Both the merging and splitting rates of the eddies are high, especially at the western boundary, in currents and in "eddy deserts". GEM is useful not only for satellite-based observational data but also for numerical simulation outputs. It is potentially useful for studying dynamic processes in other related fields, e.g., the dynamics of cyclones in meteorology.

Multiscale Approach to Small River Plumes off California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basdurak, N. B.; Largier, J. L.; Nidzieko, N.

2012-12-01

While larger scale plumes have received significant attention, the dynamics of plumes associated with small rivers typical of California are little studied. Since small streams are not dominated by a momentum flux, their plumes are more susceptible to conditions in the coastal ocean such as wind and waves. In order to correctly model water transport at smaller scales, there is a need to capture larger scale processes. To do this, one-way nested grids with varying grid resolution (1 km and 10 m for the parent and the child grid respectively) were constructed. CENCOOS (Central and Northern California Ocean Observing System) model results were used as boundary conditions to the parent grid. Semi-idealized model results for Santa Rosa Creek, California are presented from an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS v3.0), a three-dimensional, free-surface, terrain-following numerical model. In these preliminary results, the interaction between tides, winds, and buoyancy forcing in plume dynamics is explored for scenarios including different strengths of freshwater flow with different modes (steady and pulsed). Seasonal changes in transport dynamics and dispersion patterns are analyzed.

Seasonality and intermittency of the ocean dynamics at scales smaller than 100 km in the world ocean: A scientific challenge for SWOT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Su, Z.; Klein, P.; Thompson, A. F.; Menemenlis, D.; Fu, L. L.

2016-12-01

The major observational advance expected from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) altimeter, compared with existing altimeters, is that it will provide wide-swath (120 km) along-track data that permit the sampling of oceanic scales between 15 and 150km. The potential of this satellite mission is to understand the dynamical impact of these small scales on ocean dynamics. Such impact is known to affect the vertical velocity field (and therefore the vertical fluxes of ocean properties) and significantly affect both the inverse and direct kinetic energy cascades. The need to monitor these scales on a global scale is illustrated by the results of a realistic global ocean simulation. This model has 1/48-degree horizontal grid spacing, 90 vertical levels, and the inclusion of tidal forcing. This simulation reveals a strong seasonality of ocean dynamics at scales less than 100 km, not only in the previously documented regions, such as the Kuroshio extension, Gulf Stream, and subtropical gyres; but also in most other regions, such as most of the Southern Hemisphere and the North-East Atlantic. This strong seasonality, with a maximum amplitude consistently in winter, is associated with deep winter mixed-layer and energetic mesoscale eddies, pointing to mixed-layer instability as a major driver of the seasonality of dynamics at small scales. In addition to seasonal variations, strong intermittencies of ocean dynamics with a period of one to two weeks are also observed occasionally with the same amplitude as the seasonal variability. In this presentation, we discuss the consequences and the challenges posed by the strong spatial and temporal variability to SWOT data analysis.

Ethane ocean on Titan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lunine, J. I.; Stevenson, D. J.; Yung, Y.L.

1983-01-01

Voyager I radio occultation data is employed to develop a qualitative model of an ethane ocean on Titan. It is suggested that the ocean contains 25 percent CH4 and that the ocean is in dynamic equilibrium with an N2 atmosphere. Previous models of a CH4 ocean are discounted due to photolysis rates of CH4 gas. Tidal damping of Titan's orbital eccentricity is taken as evidence for an ocean layer approximately 1 km deep, with the ocean floor being covered with a solid C2H2 layer 100 to 200 m thick. The photolytic process disrupting the CH4, if the estimates of the oceanic content of CH4 are correct, could continue for at least one billion years. Verification of the model is dependent on detecting CH4 clouds in the lower atmosphere, finding C2H6 saturation in the lower troposphere, or obtaining evidence of a global ocean.

Predicting marine physical-biogeochemical variabilities in the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern U.S. shelf sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, R.; Zong, H.; Xue, Z. G.; Fennel, K.; Tian, H.; Cai, W. J.; Lohrenz, S. E.

2017-12-01

An integrated terrestrial-ocean ecosystem modeling system is developed and used to investigate marine physical-biogeochemical variabilities in the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern US shelf sea. Such variabilities stem from variations in the shelf circulation, boundary current dynamics, impacts of climate variability, as well as growing population and associated land use practices on transport of carbon and nutrients within terrestrial systems and their delivery to the coastal ocean. We will report our efforts in evaluating the performance of the coupled modeling system via extensive model and data comparisons, as well as findings from a suite of case studies and scenario simulations. Long-term model simulation results are used to quantify regional ocean circulation dynamics, nitrogen budget and carbon fluxes. Their corresponding sub-regional differences are also characterized and contrasted.

Outlet Glacier-Ice Shelf-Ocean Interactions: Is the Tail Wagging the Dog?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parizek, B. R.; Walker, R. T.; Rinehart, S. K.

2009-12-01

While the massive interior regions of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets are presently ``resting quietly", the lower elevations of many outlet glaciers are experiencing dramatic adjustments due to changes in ice dynamics and/or surface mass balance. Oceanic and/or atmospheric forcing in these marginal regions often leads to mass deficits for entire outlet basins. Therefore, coupling the wagging tail of ice-ocean interactions with the vast ice-sheet reservoirs is imperative for accurate assessments of future sea-level rise. To study ice-ocean dynamic processes, we couple an ocean-plume model that simulates ice-shelf basal melting rates based on temperature and salinity profiles combined with plume dynamics associated with the geometry of the ice-shelf cavity (following Jenkins, 1991 and Holland and Jenkins, 1999) with a two-dimensional, isothermal model of outlet glacier-ice shelf flow (as used in Alley et al., 2007; Walker et al., 2008; Parizek et al., in review). Depending on the assigned temperature and salinity profiles, the ocean model can simulate both water-mass end-members: either cold High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) or relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), as well as between-member conditions. Notably, the coupled system exhibits sensitivity to the initial conditions. In particular, melting concentrated near the grounding line has the greatest effect in forcing grounding-line retreat. Retreat is further enhanced by a positive feedback between the ocean and ice, as the focused melt near the grounding line leads to an increase in the local slope of the basal ice, thereby enhancing buoyancy-driven plume flow and subsequent melt rates.

The numerics of hydrostatic structured-grid coastal ocean models: State of the art and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingbeil, Knut; Lemarié, Florian; Debreu, Laurent; Burchard, Hans

2018-05-01

The state of the art of the numerics of hydrostatic structured-grid coastal ocean models is reviewed here. First, some fundamental differences in the hydrodynamics of the coastal ocean, such as the large surface elevation variation compared to the mean water depth, are contrasted against large scale ocean dynamics. Then the hydrodynamic equations as they are used in coastal ocean models as well as in large scale ocean models are presented, including parameterisations for turbulent transports. As steps towards discretisation, coordinate transformations and spatial discretisations based on a finite-volume approach are discussed with focus on the specific requirements for coastal ocean models. As in large scale ocean models, splitting of internal and external modes is essential also for coastal ocean models, but specific care is needed when drying & flooding of intertidal flats is included. As one obvious characteristic of coastal ocean models, open boundaries occur and need to be treated in a way that correct model forcing from outside is transmitted to the model domain without reflecting waves from the inside. Here, also new developments in two-way nesting are presented. Single processes such as internal inertia-gravity waves, advection and turbulence closure models are discussed with focus on the coastal scales. Some overview on existing hydrostatic structured-grid coastal ocean models is given, including their extensions towards non-hydrostatic models. Finally, an outlook on future perspectives is made.

Ocean modelling on the CYBER 205 at GFDL

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cox, M.

1984-01-01

At the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, research is carried out for the purpose of understanding various aspects of climate, such as its variability, predictability, stability and sensitivity. The atmosphere and oceans are modelled mathematically and their phenomenology studied by computer simulation methods. The present state-of-the-art in the computer simulation of large scale oceans on the CYBER 205 is discussed. While atmospheric modelling differs in some aspects, the basic approach used is similar. The equations of the ocean model are presented along with a short description of the numerical techniques used to find their solution. Computational considerations and a typical solution are presented in section 4.

June 13, 2013 U.S. East Coast Meteotsunami: Comparing a Numerical Model With Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Becker, N. C.; Weinstein, S.; Whitmore, P.; Knight, W.; Kim, Y.; Bouchard, R. H.; Grissom, K.

2013-12-01

On June 13, 2013, a tsunami struck the U.S. East Coast and caused several reported injuries. This tsunami occurred after a derecho moved offshore from North America into the Atlantic Ocean. The presence of this storm, the lack of a seismic source, and the fact that tsunami arrival times at tide stations and deep ocean-bottom pressure sensors cannot be attributed to a 'point-source' suggest this tsunami was caused by atmospheric forces, i.e., a meteotsunami. In this study we attempt to reproduce the observed phenomenon using a numerical model with idealized atmospheric pressure forcing resembling the propagation of the observed barometric anomaly. The numerical model was able to capture some observed features of the tsunami at some tide stations, including the time-lag between the time of pressure jump and the time of tsunami arrival. The model also captures the response at a deep ocean-bottom pressure gauge (DART 44402), including the primary wave and the reflected wave. There are two components of the oceanic response to the propagating pressure anomaly, inverted barometer response and dynamic response. We find that the dynamic response over the deep ocean to be much smaller than the inverted barometer response. The time lag between the pressure jump and tsunami arrival at tide stations is due to the dynamic response: waves generated and/or reflected at the shelf-break propagate shoreward and amplify due to the shoaling effect. The evolution of the derecho over the deep ocean (propagation direction and intensity) is not well defined, however, because of the lack of data so the forcing used for this study is somewhat speculative. Better definition of the pressure anomaly through increased observation or high resolution atmospheric models would improve meteotsunami forecast capabilities.

From Rivers to Oceans and Back: Linking Models to Encompass the Full Salmon Life Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danner, E.; Hendrix, N.; Martin, B.; Lindley, S. T.

2016-02-01

Pacific salmon are a promising study subject for investigating the linkages between freshwater and coastal ocean ecosystems. Salmon use a wide range of habitats throughout their life cycle as they move with water from mountain streams, mainstem rivers, estuaries, bays, and coastal oceans, with adult fish swimming back through the same migration route they took as juveniles. Conditions in one habitat can have growth and survival consequences that manifest in the following habitat, so is key that full life cycle models are used to further our understanding salmon population dynamics. Given the wide range of habitats and potential stressors, this approach requires the coordination of a multidisciplinary suite of physical and biological models, including climate, hydrologic, hydraulic, food web, circulation, bioenergetic, and ecosystem models. Here we present current approaches to linking physical and biological models that capture the foundational drivers for salmon in complex and dynamic systems.

Intraseasonal and interannual oscillations in coupled ocean-atmosphere models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hirst, Anthony C.; Lau, K.-M.

1990-01-01

An investigation is presented of coupled ocean-atmosphere models' behavior in an environment where atmospheric wave speeds are substantially reduced from dry atmospheric values by such processes as condensation-moisture convergence. Modes are calculated for zonally periodic, unbounded ocean-atmosphere systems, emphasizing the importance of an inclusion of prognostic atmosphere equations in simple coupled ocean-atmosphere models with a view to simulations of intraseasonal variability and its possible interaction with interannual variability. The dynamics of low and high frequency modes are compared; both classes are sensitive to the degree to which surface wind anomalies are able to affect the evaporation rate.

Dynamics of coupled ice-ocean system in the marginal ice zone: Study of the mesoscale processes and of constitutive equations for sea ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, S.

1984-01-01

This study is aimed at the modelling of mesoscale processed such as up/downwelling and ice edge eddies in the marginal ice zones. A 2-dimensional coupled ice-ocean model is used for the study. The ice model is coupled to the reduced gravity ocean model (f-plane) through interfacial stresses. The constitutive equations of the sea ice are formulated on the basis of the Reiner-Rivlin theory. The internal ice stresses are important only at high ice concentrations (90-100%), otherwise the ice motion is essentially free drift, where the air-ice stress is balanced by the ice-water stress. The model was tested by studying the upwelling dynamics. Winds parallel to the ice edge with the ice on the right produce upwilling because the air-ice momentum flux is much greater that air-ocean momentum flux, and thus the Ekman transport is bigger under the ice than in the open water. The upwelling simulation was extended to include temporally varying forcing, which was chosen to vary sinusoidally with a 4 day period. This forcing resembles successive cyclone passings. In the model with a thin oceanic upper layer, ice bands were formed.

A study of the dynamics of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in a symmetric atmosphere-ocean model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Charney, J. G.; Kalnay, E.; Schneider, E.; Shukla, J.

1988-01-01

A numerical model of the circulation of a coupled axisymmetric atmosphere-ocean system was constructed to investigate the physical factors governing the location and intensity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over oceans and over land. The results of several numerical integrations are presented to illustrate the interaction of the individual atmospheric and oceanic circulations. It is shown that the ITCA cannot be located at the equator because the atmosphere-ocean system is unstable for lateral displacements of the ITCA from an equilibrium position at the equator.

Dynamic patterns and ecological impacts of declining ocean pH in a high-resolution multi-year dataset.

PubMed

Wootton, J Timothy; Pfister, Catherine A; Forester, James D

2008-12-02

Increasing global concentrations of atmospheric CO(2) are predicted to decrease ocean pH, with potentially severe impacts on marine food webs, but empirical data documenting ocean pH over time are limited. In a high-resolution dataset spanning 8 years, pH at a north-temperate coastal site declined with increasing atmospheric CO(2) levels and varied substantially in response to biological processes and physical conditions that fluctuate over multiple time scales. Applying a method to link environmental change to species dynamics via multispecies Markov chain models reveals strong links between in situ benthic species dynamics and variation in ocean pH, with calcareous species generally performing more poorly than noncalcareous species in years with low pH. The models project the long-term consequences of these dynamic changes, which predict substantial shifts in the species dominating the habitat as a consequence of both direct effects of reduced calcification and indirect effects arising from the web of species interactions. Our results indicate that pH decline is proceeding at a more rapid rate than previously predicted in some areas, and that this decline has ecological consequences for near shore benthic ecosystems.

Assessing data assimilation and model boundary error strategies for high resolution ocean model downscaling in the Northern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandvig Mariegaard, Jesper; Huiban, Méven Robin; Tornfeldt Sørensen, Jacob; Andersson, Henrik

2017-04-01

Determining the optimal domain size and associated position of open boundaries in local high-resolution downscaling ocean models is often difficult. As an important input data set for downscaling ocean modelling, the European Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) provides baroclinic initial and boundary conditions for local ocean models. Tidal dynamics is often neglected in CMEMS services at large scale but tides are generally crucial for coastal ocean dynamics. To address this need, tides can be superposed via Flather (1976) boundary conditions and the combined flow downscaled using unstructured mesh. The surge component is also only partially represented in selected CMEMS products and must be modelled inside the domain and modelled independently and superposed if the domain becomes too small to model the effect in the downscaling model. The tide and surge components can generally be improved by assimilating water level from tide gauge and altimetry data. An intrinsic part of the problem is to find the limitations of local scale data assimilation and the requirement for consistency between the larger scale ocean models and the local scale assimilation methodologies. This contribution investigates the impact of domain size and associated positions of open boundaries with and without data assimilation of water level. We have used the baroclinic ocean model, MIKE 3 FM, and its newly re-factored built-in data assimilation package. We consider boundary conditions of salinity, temperature, water level and depth varying currents from the Global CMEMS 1/4 degree resolution model from 2011, where in situ ADCP velocity data is available for validation. We apply data assimilation of in-situ tide gauge water levels and along track altimetry surface elevation data from selected satellites. The MIKE 3 FM data assimilation model which use the Ensemble Kalman filter have recently been parallelized with MPI allowing for much larger applications running on HPC. The success of the downscaling is to a large degree determined by the ability to realistically describe and dynamically model the errors on the open boundaries. Three different sizes of downscaling model domains in the Northern North Sea have been examined and two different strategies for modelling the uncertainties on the open Flather boundaries are investigated. The combined downscaling and local data assimilation skill is assessed and the impact on recommended domain size is compared to pure downscaling.

Wave effects on ocean-ice interaction in the marginal ice zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Antony K.; Hakkinen, Sirpa; Peng, Chih Y.

1993-01-01

The effects of wave train on ice-ocean interaction in the marginal ice zone are studied through numerical modeling. A coupled two-dimensional ice-ocean model has been developed to include wave effects and wind stress for the predictions of ice edge dynamics. The sea ice model is coupled to the reduced-gravity ocean model through interfacial stresses. The main dynamic balance in the ice momentum is between water-ice stress, wind stress, and wave radiation stresses. By considering the exchange of momentum between waves and ice pack through radiation stress for decaying waves, a parametric study of the effects of wave stress and wind stress on ice edge dynamics has been performed. The numerical results show significant effects from wave action. The ice edge is sharper, and ice edge meanders form in the marginal ice zone owing to forcing by wave action and refraction of swell system after a couple of days. Upwelling at the ice edge and eddy formation can be enhanced by the nonlinear effects of wave action; wave action sharpens the ice edge and can produce ice meandering, which enhances local Ekman pumping and pycnocline anomalies. The resulting ice concentration, pycnocline changes, and flow velocity field are shown to be consistent with previous observations.

Coastal Ocean Variability Off the Coast of Taiwan in Response toTyphoon Morakot: River Forcing, Atmospheric Forcing, and Cold Dome Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

very short time period and in this research, we model and study the effects of this rainfall on Taiwan?s coastal oceans as a result of river discharge...model and study the effects of this rainfall on Taiwan’s coastal oceans as a result of river discharge. We do this through the use of a river discharge... Effects of Footprint Shape on the Bulk Mixing Model . . . . . . . . . 57 4.2 Effects of the Horizontal Extent of the Bulk Mixing Model . . . . . . 59

Long-Period Tidal Variations in the Length of Day

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.; Erofeeva, Svetlana Y.

2014-01-01

A new model of long-period tidal variations in length of day is developed. The model comprises 80 spectral lines with periods between 18.6 years and 4.7 days, and it consistently includes effects of mantle anelasticity and dynamic ocean tides for all lines. The anelastic properties followWahr and Bergen; experimental confirmation for their results now exists at the fortnightly period, but there remains uncertainty when extrapolating to the longest periods. The ocean modeling builds on recent work with the fortnightly constituent, which suggests that oceanic tidal angular momentum can be reliably predicted at these periods without data assimilation. This is a critical property when modeling most long-period tides, for which little observational data exist. Dynamic ocean effects are quite pronounced at shortest periods as out-of-phase rotation components become nearly as large as in-phase components. The model is tested against a 20 year time series of space geodetic measurements of length of day. The current international standard model is shown to leave significant residual tidal energy, and the new model is found to mostly eliminate that energy, with especially large variance reduction for constituents Sa, Ssa, Mf, and Mt.

Observations and Modeling of the Transient General Circulation of the North Pacific Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McWilliams, James C.

2000-01-01

Because of recent progress in satellite altimetry and numerical modeling and the accumulation and archiving of long records of hydrographic and meteorological variables, it is becoming feasible to describe and understand the transient general circulation of the ocean (i.e., variations with spatial scales larger than a few hundred kilometers and time scales of seasonal and longer-beyond the mesoscale). We have carried out various studies in investigation of the transient general circulation of the Pacific Ocean from a coordinated analysis of satellite altimeter data, historical hydrographic gauge data, scatterometer wind observations, reanalyzed operational wind fields, and a variety of ocean circulation models. Broadly stated, our goal was to achieve a phenomenological catalogue of different possible types of large-scale, low-frequency variability, as a context for understanding the observational record. The approach is to identify the simplest possible model from which particular observed phenomena can be isolated and understood dynamically and then to determine how well these dynamical processes are represented in more complex Oceanic General Circulation Models (OGCMs). Research results have been obtained on Rossby wave propagation and transformation, oceanic intrinsic low-frequency variability, effects of surface gravity waves, pacific data analyses, OGCM formulation and developments, and OGCM simulations of forced variability.

Advancing dynamic and thermodynamic modelling of magma oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bower, Dan; Wolf, Aaron; Sanan, Patrick; Tackley, Paul

2017-04-01

The techniques for modelling low melt-fraction dynamics in planetary interiors are well-established by supplementing the Stokes equations with Darcy's Law. But modelling high-melt fraction phenomena, relevant to the earliest phase of magma ocean cooling, necessitates parameterisations to capture the dynamics of turbulent flow that are otherwise unresolvable in numerical models. Furthermore, it requires knowledge about the material properties of both solid and melt mantle phases, the latter of which are poorly described by typical equations of state. To address these challenges, we present (1) a new interior evolution model that, in a single formulation, captures both solid and melt dynamics and hence charts the complete cooling trajectory of a planetary mantle, and (2) a physical and intuitive extension of a "Hard Sphere" liquid equation of state (EOS) to describe silicate melt properties for the pressure-temperature (P-T) range of Earth's mantle. Together, these two advancements provide a comprehensive and versatile modelling framework for probing the far-reaching consequences of magma ocean cooling and crystallisation for Earth and other rocky planets. The interior evolution model accounts for heat transfer by conduction, convection, latent heat, and gravitational separation. It uses the finite volume method to ensure energy conservation at each time-step and accesses advanced time integration algorithms by interfacing with PETSc. This ensures it accurately and efficiently computes the dynamics throughout the magma ocean, including within the ultra-thin thermal boundary layers (< 2 cm thickness) at the core-mantle boundary and surface. PETSc also enables our code to support a parallel implementation and quad-precision calculations for future modelling capabilities. The thermodynamics of mantle melting are represented using a pseudo-one-component model, which retains the simplicity of a standard one-component model while introducing a finite temperature interval for melting (important for multi-component systems). Our new high P-T liquid EOS accurately captures the energetics and physical properties of the partially molten system whilst retaining the largest number of familiar EOS parameters. We demonstrate the power of our integrated dynamic and EOS model by exploring two crystallisation scenarios for Earth that are dictated by the coincidence of the liquid adiabat and melting curve. Experiments on melting of primitive chondrite composition predict that crystallisation occurs from the "bottom-up", whereas molecular dynamics simulations of MgSiO3 perovskite suggest crystallisation occurs from the "middle-out". In each case, we evaluate the lifetime of the magma ocean using our model and find that in both scenarios, initial cooling is rapid and the rheological transition (boundary between melt- and solid-like behaviour) is reached within a few kyrs. During this stage efficient mixing prevents the establishment of thermal and chemical heterogeneity, so it may be challenging to locate a signature of the earliest phase of magma ocean evolution. At the rheological transition, cooling is governed by gravitational separation and viscous creep, and even in the absence of iron partitioning our models predict long-lasting (> 500 Myr) melt at the base of the mantle.

Operational seasonal and interannual predictions of ocean conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leetmaa, Ants

1992-01-01

Dr. Leetmaa described current work at the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) on coupled systems leading to a seasonal prediction system. He described the way in which ocean thermal data is quality controlled and used in a four dimensional data assimilation system. This consists of a statistical interpolation scheme, a primitive equation ocean general circulation model, and the atmospheric fluxes that are required to force this. This whole process generated dynamically consist thermohaline and velocity fields for the ocean. Currently routine weekly analyses are performed for the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. These analyses are used for ocean climate diagnostics and as initial conditions for coupled forecast models. Specific examples of output products were shown both in the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean.

Dynamic ocean topography from CryoSat-2: examining recent changes in ice-ocean stress and advancing a theory for Beaufort Gyre stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewey, S.; Morison, J.; Kwok, R.; Dickinson, S.; Morison, D.; Andersen, R.

2017-12-01

Model and sparse observational evidence has shown the ocean current speed in the Beaufort Gyre to have increased and recently stabilized. However, full-basin altimetric observations of dynamic ocean topography (DOT) and ocean surface currents have yet to be applied to the dynamics of gyre stabilization. DOT fields from retracked CryoSat-2 retrievals in Arctic Ocean leads have enabled us to calculate 2-month average ocean geostrophic currents. These currents are crucial to accurately computing ice-ocean stress, especially because they have accelerated so that their speed rivals that of the overlying sea ice. Given these observations, we can shift our view of the Beaufort Gyre as a system in which the wind drives the ice and the ice drives a passive ocean to a system with the following feedback: After initial input of energy by wind, ice velocity decreases due to water drag and internal ice stress and the ocean drives the ice, reversing Ekman pumping and decelerating the gyre. This reversal changes the system from a persistently convergent regime to one in which freshwater is released from the gyre and doming of the gyre decreases, without any change in long-term average wind stress curl. Through these processes, the ice-ocean stress provides a key feedback in Beaufort Gyre stabilization.

Measurement of sediment and crustal thickness corrected RDA for 2D profiles at rifted continental margins: Applications to the Iberian, Gulf of Aden and S Angolan margins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowie, Leanne; Kusznir, Nick

2014-05-01

Subsidence analysis of sedimentary basins and rifted continental margins requires a correction for the anomalous uplift or subsidence arising from mantle dynamic topography. Whilst different global model predictions of mantle dynamic topography may give a broadly similar pattern at long wavelengths, they differ substantially in the predicted amplitude and at shorter wavelengths. As a consequence the accuracy of predicted mantle dynamic topography is not sufficiently good to provide corrections for subsidence analysis. Measurements of present day anomalous subsidence, which we attribute to mantle dynamic topography, have been made for three rifted continental margins; offshore Iberia, the Gulf of Aden and southern Angola. We determine residual depth anomaly (RDA), corrected for sediment loading and crustal thickness variation for 2D profiles running from unequivocal oceanic crust across the continental ocean boundary onto thinned continental crust. Residual depth anomalies (RDA), corrected for sediment loading using flexural backstripping and decompaction, have been calculated by comparing observed and age predicted oceanic bathymetries at these margins. Age predicted bathymetric anomalies have been calculated using the thermal plate model predictions from Crosby & McKenzie (2009). Non-zero sediment corrected RDAs may result from anomalous oceanic crustal thickness with respect to the global average or from anomalous uplift or subsidence. Gravity anomaly inversion incorporating a lithosphere thermal gravity anomaly correction and sediment thickness from 2D seismic reflection data has been used to determine Moho depth, calibrated using seismic refraction, and oceanic crustal basement thickness. Crustal basement thicknesses derived from gravity inversion together with Airy isostasy have been used to correct for variations of crustal thickness from a standard oceanic thickness of 7km. The 2D profiles of RDA corrected for both sediment loading and non-standard crustal thickness provide a measurement of anomalous uplift or subsidence which we attribute to mantle dynamic topography. We compare our sediment and crustal thickness corrected RDA analysis results with published predictions of mantle dynamic topography from global models.

Ocean Hydrodynamics Numerical Model in Curvilinear Coordinates for Simulating Circulation of the Global Ocean and its Separate Basins.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Anatoly; Diansky, Nikolay; Zalesny, Vladimir

2010-05-01

The original program complex is proposed for the ocean circulation sigma-model, developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM), Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS). The complex can be used in various curvilinear orthogonal coordinate systems. In addition to ocean circulation model, the complex contains a sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics model, as well as the original system of the atmospheric forcing implementation on the basis of both prescribed meteodata and atmospheric model results. This complex can be used as the oceanic block of Earth climate model as well as for solving the scientific and practical problems concerning the World ocean and its separate oceans and seas. The developed program complex can be effectively used on parallel shared memory computational systems and on contemporary personal computers. On the base of the complex proposed the ocean general circulation model (OGCM) was developed. The model is realized in the curvilinear orthogonal coordinate system obtained by the conformal transformation of the standard geographical grid that allowed us to locate the system singularities outside the integration domain. The horizontal resolution of the OGCM is 1 degree on longitude, 0.5 degree on latitude, and it has 40 non-uniform sigma-levels in depth. The model was integrated for 100 years starting from the Levitus January climatology using the realistic atmospheric annual cycle calculated on the base of CORE datasets. The experimental results showed us that the model adequately reproduces the basic characteristics of large-scale World Ocean dynamics, that is in good agreement with both observational data and results of the best climatic OGCMs. This OGCM is used as the oceanic component of the new version of climatic system model (CSM) developed in INM RAS. The latter is now ready for carrying out the new numerical experiments on climate and its change modelling according to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios in the scope of the CMIP-5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). On the base of the complex proposed the Pacific Ocean circulation eddy-resolving model was realized. The integration domain covers the Pacific from Equator to Bering Strait. The model horizontal resolution is 0.125 degree and it has 20 non-uniform sigma-levels in depth. The model adequately reproduces circulation large-scale structure and its variability: Kuroshio meandering, ocean synoptic eddies, frontal zones, etc. Kuroshio high variability is shown. The distribution of contaminant was simulated that is admittedly wasted near Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. The results demonstrate contaminant distribution structure and provide us understanding of hydrological fields formation processes in the North-West Pacific.

Seasonal Variability of Salt Transports in the Northern Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Addezio, J. M.; Bulusu, S.

2016-02-01

Due to limited observational data in the Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the global ocean, past work on the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) has relied heavily upon model analysis to study the variability of regional salinity advection caused by the monsoon seasons. With the launch of the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite in 2009 and the Aquarius SAC-D mission in 2011 (ended on June 7, 2011), remotely sensed, synoptic scale sea surface salinity (SSS) data is now readily available to study this dynamic region. The new observational data has allowed us to revisit the region to analyze seasonal variability of salinity advection in the NIO using several modeled products, the Aquarius and SMOS satellites, and Argo floats data. The model simulations include the Consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO2), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Ocean Reanalysis System 4 (ECMWF-ORSA4), Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) Reanalysis, and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Our analyses of salinity at the surface and at depths up to 200 m, surface salt transport in the top 5 m layer, and depth-integrated salt transports revealed different salinity processes in the NIO that are dominantly related to the semi-annual monsoons. Aquarius and SMOS prove useful tools for observing this dynamic region, and reveal some aspects of SSS that Argo cannot resolve. Meridional depth-integrated salt transports using the modeled products along 6°N revealed dominant advective processes from the surface towards near-bottom depths. Finally, a difference in subsurface salinity stratification causes many of the modeled products to incorrectly estimate the magnitude and seasonality of NIO barrier layer thickness (BLT) when compared to the Argo solution. This problem is also evident in model output from the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR), a region with strong air-sea teleconnections with the Arabian Sea.

Towards coupled physical-biogeochemical models of the ocean carbon cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rintoul, Stephen R.

1992-01-01

The purpose of this review is to discuss the critical gaps in our knowledge of ocean dynamics and biogeochemical cycles. It is assumed that the ultimate goal is the design of a model of the earth system that can predict the response to changes in the external forces driving climate.

Predictability of weather and climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model: A dynamical systems approach. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nese, Jon M.

1989-01-01

A dynamical systems approach is used to quantify the instantaneous and time-averaged predictability of a low-order moist general circulation model. Specifically, the effects on predictability of incorporating an active ocean circulation, implementing annual solar forcing, and asynchronously coupling the ocean and atmosphere are evaluated. The predictability and structure of the model attractors is compared using the Lyapunov exponents, the local divergence rates, and the correlation, fractal, and Lyapunov dimensions. The Lyapunov exponents measure the average rate of growth of small perturbations on an attractor, while the local divergence rates quantify phase-spatial variations of predictability. These local rates are exploited to efficiently identify and distinguish subtle differences in predictability among attractors. In addition, the predictability of monthly averaged and yearly averaged states is investigated by using attractor reconstruction techniques.

Oceanic residual depth measurements, the plate cooling model, and global dynamic topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoggard, Mark J.; Winterbourne, Jeff; Czarnota, Karol; White, Nicky

2017-03-01

Convective circulation of the mantle causes deflections of the Earth's surface that vary as a function of space and time. Accurate measurements of this dynamic topography are complicated by the need to isolate and remove other sources of elevation, arising from flexure and lithospheric isostasy. The complex architecture of continental lithosphere means that measurement of present-day dynamic topography is more straightforward in the oceanic realm. Here we present an updated methodology for calculating oceanic residual bathymetry, which is a proxy for dynamic topography. Corrections are applied that account for the effects of sedimentary loading and compaction, for anomalous crustal thickness variations, for subsidence of oceanic lithosphere as a function of age and for non-hydrostatic geoid height variations. Errors are formally propagated to estimate measurement uncertainties. We apply this methodology to a global database of 1936 seismic surveys located on oceanic crust and generate 2297 spot measurements of residual topography, including 1161 with crustal corrections. The resultant anomalies have amplitudes of ±1 km and wavelengths of ˜1000 km. Spectral analysis of our database using cross-validation demonstrates that spherical harmonics up to and including degree 30 (i.e., wavelengths down to 1300 km) are required to accurately represent these observations. Truncation of the expansion at a lower maximum degree erroneously increases the amplitude of inferred long-wavelength dynamic topography. There is a strong correlation between our observations and free-air gravity anomalies, magmatism, ridge seismicity, vertical motions of adjacent rifted margins, and global tomographic models. We infer that shorter wavelength components of the observed pattern of dynamic topography may be attributable to the presence of thermal anomalies within the shallow asthenospheric mantle.

Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, C.; Lyon, B.; Ricciardulli, L.

2012-01-01

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with observations. Our analysis focuses initially on probing the inter-model differences in energy fluxes / transports and Walker Circulation response to forcing. We then attempt to identify statistically the El Nino- / La Nina-related ocean heat content variability unique to each model and regress out the associated energy flux, ocean heat transport and Walker response on these shorter time scales for comparison to that of the anthropogenic signals.

Interdisciplinary Modeling and Dynamics of Archipelago Straits

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

modeling, tidal modeling and multi-dynamics nested domains and non-hydrostatic modeling WORK COMPLETED Realistic Multiscale Simulations, Real-time...six state variables (chlorophyll, nitrate , ammonium, detritus, phytoplankton, and zooplankton) were needed to initialize simulations. Using biological...parameters from literature, climatology from World Ocean Atlas data for nitrate and chlorophyll profiles extracted from satellite data, a first

Remote forcing at the Last Glacial Maximum in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreasen, Dyke H.; Ravelo, A. Christina; Broccoli, Anthony J.

2001-01-01

We present results of a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) wind stress sensitivity experiment using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model of the tropical Pacific Ocean. LGM wind stress, used to drive the ocean model, was generated using an atmospheric general circulation model simulation forced by LGM boundary conditions as part of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) [Broccoli, 2000]. LGM wind stress anomalies were large in the western half of the basin, yet there was a significant hydrographic response in the eastern half. This ocean model experiment hind casts changes that are in close agreement with paleoceanographic data from the entire region, even without the explicit modeling of the air-sea interactions. Data and model both predict that the annual average thermocline tilt across the basin was enhanced. Data and model are consistent with a stronger equatorial undercurrent which shoaled to the west of where it does today, and stronger advection of water from the Peru Current into the east equatorial Pacific and across the equator. Paleoproductivity and sea surface temperature (SST) data are interpreted in light of the modeling results, indicating that paleoproductivity changes were related to wind-forced dynamical changes resulting from LGM boundary conditions, while SST changes were related to independent, possibly radiative, forcing. Overall, our results imply that much of the dynamic response of the tropical Pacific during the LGM can be explained by wind field changes resulting from global LGM boundary conditions.

Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

DOE PAGES

Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; ...

2012-05-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These twomore » warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.« less

The Southern Ocean's role in ocean circulation and climate transients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, A. F.; Stewart, A.; Hines, S.; Adkins, J. F.

2017-12-01

The ventilation of deep and intermediate density classes at the surface of the Southern Ocean impacts water mass modification and the air-sea exchange of heat and trace gases, which in turn influences the global overturning circulation and Earth's climate. Zonal variability occurs along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the Antarctic margins related to flow-topography interactions, variations in surface boundary conditions, and exchange with northern basins. Information about these zonal variations, and their impact on mass and tracer transport, are suppressed when the overturning is depicted as a two-dimensional (depth-latitude) streamfunction. Here we present an idealized, multi-basin, time-dependent circulation model that applies residual circulation theory in the Southern Ocean and allows for zonal water mass transfer between different ocean basins. This model efficiently determines the temporal evolution of the ocean's stratification, ventilation and overturning strength in response to perturbations in the external forcing. With this model we explore the dynamics that lead to transitions in the circulation structure between multiple, isolated cells and a three-dimensional, "figure-of-eight," circulation in which traditional upper and lower cells are interleaved. The transient model is also used to support a mechanistic explanation of the hemispheric asymmetry and phase lag associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events during the last glacial period. In particular, the 200 year lag in southern hemisphere temperatures, following a perturbation in North Atlantic deep water formation, depends critically on the migration of Southern Ocean isopycnal outcropping in response to low-latitude stratification changes. Our results provide a self-consistent dynamical framework to explain various ocean overturning transitions that have occurred over the Earth's last 100,000 years, and motivate an exploration of these mechanisms in more sophisticated climate models.

Collaborative Project. Understanding the effects of tides and eddies on the ocean dynamics, sea ice cover and decadal/centennial climate prediction using the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hutchings, Jennifer; Joseph, Renu

2013-09-14

The goal of this project is to develop an eddy resolving ocean model (POP) with tides coupled to a sea ice model (CICE) within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to investigate the importance of ocean tides and mesoscale eddies in arctic climate simulations and quantify biases associated with these processes and how their relative contribution may improve decadal to centennial arctic climate predictions. Ocean, sea ice and coupled arctic climate response to these small scale processes will be evaluated with regard to their influence on mass, momentum and property exchange between oceans, shelf-basin, ice-ocean, and ocean-atmosphere. The project willmore » facilitate the future routine inclusion of polar tides and eddies in Earth System Models when computing power allows. As such, the proposed research addresses the science in support of the BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Long Term Measure as it will improve the ocean and sea ice model components as well as the fully coupled RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) and it will make them more accurate and computationally efficient.« less

The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of multidecadal variability of the AMOC, the AMO, and Northern Hemisphere climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delworth, T. L.; Zeng, F. J.; Yang, X.; Zhang, L.

2017-12-01

We use suites of simulations with coupled ocean-atmosphere models to show that multidecadal changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can drive multidecadal changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with associated hemispheric climatic impacts. These impacts include rapid changes in Arctic sea ice, hemispheric temperature, and modulation of Atlantic hurricane activity. We use models that incorporate either a fully dynamic ocean or a simple slab ocean to explore the role of ocean dynamics and ocean-atmosphere interactions. A positive phase of the NAO is associated with strengthened westerly winds over the North Atlantic. These winds extract more heat than normal from the subpolar ocean, thereby increasing upper ocean density, deepwater formation, and the strength of the AMOC and associated poleward ocean heat transport. This warming leads to a positive phase of the AMO. The enhanced oceanic heat transport extends to the Arctic where it causes a reduction of Arctic sea ice. Large-scale atmospheric warming reduces vertical wind shear in the tropical North Atlantic, creating an environment more favorable for tropical storms. We use models to further show that observed multidecadal variations of the NAO over the 20th and early 21st centuries may have led to multidecadal variations of simulated AMOC and the AMO. Specifically, negative NAO values from the late 1960s through the early 1980s led to a weakened AMOC/cold North Atlantic, whereas increasing NAO values from the late 1980s through the late 1990s increased the model AMOC and led to a positive (warm) phase of the AMO. The warm phase contributed to increases in tropical storm activity and decreases in Arctic sea ice after the mid 1990s. Ocean dynamics are essential for translating the observed NAO variations into ocean heat content variations for the extratropical North Atlantic, but appear less important in the tropical North Atlantic. The observed AMO has substantial SST amplitude in both the tropical and extratropical North Atlantic. These results suggest that additional factors, such as cloud feedback, dust feedback, and anthropogenic radiative forcing, may play a crucial role for the tropical expression of the AMO.

Incorporating Density Properties of MgSO4 Brines Into Icy World Ocean Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodman, J. C.; Vance, S.

2011-12-01

The structure and flow of the subsurface oceans in icy worlds depends on the sources of buoyancy within these oceans. Buoyancy is determined by the equation of state, in which density is a nonlinear function of temperature, salinity, and pressure. Equations of state for terrestrial seawater (with Na and Cl as the principal dissolved species) are well-developed, but icy world oceans may contain a different balance of species, including Na, Mg, SO4, and NH4 (Kargel et al, 2000). Recent work by Vance and Brown (2011, pers. comm.) has mapped out the density and thermodynamic properties of MgSO4 brines under icy world conditions. We have developed code to incorporate this equation of state data for MgSO4 brines into two different ocean simulation models. First, we investigate a single-column convection model, which is able to find the equilibrium structure and heat transport of an icy world ocean. We explore the heat transport through the ocean subject to a variety of assumptions about ocean salinity and seafloor heat and salt flux. We resolve the paradox posed by Vance and Brown (2004): warm salty MgSO4 brine emitted by a seafloor hydrothermal system may be positively buoyant at the seafloor, but become negatively buoyant (sinking) at lower pressure. How does heat escape the ocean, if it cannot be transported by convection? Second, we add MgSO4 dynamics to a full 3-D time-dependent general circulation model (the MIT GCM), which is able to simulate both the global-scale circulation of the world's ocean and investigate the highly turbulent dynamics of buoyant hydrothermal systems. We ask, "Are buoyancy-driven flows in a MgSO4 brine ocean significantly different than similarly-driven flows in terrestrial seawater?"

Isolating Tracers of Phytoplankton with Allometric Zooplankton (TOPAZ) from Modular Ocean Model (MOM5) to Couple it with a Global Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, H. C.; Moon, B. K.; Wie, J.; Park, H. S.; Kim, K. Y.; Lee, J.; Byun, Y. H.

2017-12-01

This research is motivated by a need to develop a new coupled ocean-biogeochemistry model, a key tool for climate projections. The Modular Ocean Model (MOM5) is a global ocean/ice model developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in the US, and it incorporates Tracers of Phytoplankton with Allometric Zooplankton (TOPAZ), which simulates the marine biota associated with carbon cycles. We isolated TOPAZ from MOM5 into a stand-alone version (TOPAZ-SA), and had it receive initial data and ocean physical fields required. Then, its reliability was verified by comparing the simulation results from the TOPAZ-SA with the MOM5/TOPAZ. This stand-alone version of TOPAZ is to be coupled to the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO). Here we present the preliminary results. Acknowledgements This research was supported by the project "Research and Development for KMA Weather, Climate, and Earth system Services" (NIMS-2016-3100) of the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences/Korea Meteorological Administration.

Impacts of dynamical ocean coupling in MJO experiments using NICAM/NICOCO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyakawa, T.

2016-12-01

The cloud-system resolving atmosphereic model NICAM has been successfull in producing Madden-Julian Oscillations(MJOs), having it's prediction skill estimated to be about 4 weeks in a series of hindcast experiments for winter MJO events during 2003-2012 (Miyakawa et al. 2014). A simple mixed-layer ocean model has been applied with nudging towards a prescribed "persistent anomaly SST", which maintains the initial anomaly with a time-varying climatological seasonal cycle. This setup enables the model to interact with an ocean with reasonably realistic SST, and also run in a "forecast mode", without using any observational information after the initial date. A limitation is that under this setup, the model skill drops if the oceanic anomaly rapidly changes after the initial date in the real world. Here we run a recently developed, full 3D-ocean coupled version NICAM-COCO (NICOCO) and explore its impact on MJO simulations. Dynamical ocean models can produce oceanic waves/currents, but will also have a bias and drift away from reality. In a sub-seasonal simulation (an initial problem), it is essential to compare the merit of having better represented oceanic signals and the demerit of bias/drift. A test case simulation series featuring an MJO that triggered the abrupt termination of a major El Nino in 1998 shows that the abrupt termination occurs in all 9 simulation members, highlighting the merit of ocean coupling. However, this is a case where oceanic signals are at its extremes. We carried out an estimation of MJO prediction skill for a preliminary 1-degree mesh ocean version of NICOCO in a similar manner to Miyakawa et al. (2014). The MJO skill was degraded for simulations that was initialized at RMM phases 1 and 2 (corresponding to the Indian Ocean), while those initialized at phase 8 (Africa) was not strongly affected. The tendency of the model ocean to overestimate the Maritime Continent warm pool SST possibly delays the eastward propagation of MJO convective envelope, accounting for the degrade of prediction skills (phases 1 and 2). Reference:Madden-Julian Oscillation prediction skill of a new-generation global model demonstrated using a supercomputer. Miyakawa, T., M. Satoh, H. Miura, H. Tomita, H. Yashiro, A. T. Noda, Y. Yamada, C. Kodama, M. Kimoto & K. Yoneyama. Nature Comm. 5, 3769, doi:10.1038/ncomms4769.

A low-order model of the equatorial ocean-atmosphere system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legnani, Roberto

A low order model of the equatorial ocean-atmosphere coupled system is presented. The model atmosphere includes a hydrological cycle with cloud-radiation interaction. The model ocean is based on mixed layer dynamics with a parameterization of entrainment processes. The coupling takes place via transfer to momentum, sensible heat, latent heat and short wave and long wave radiation through the ocean surface. The dynamical formulation is that of the primitive equations of an equatorial beta-plane, with zonally periodic and meridionally infinite geometry. The system is expanded into the set of normal modes pertinent to the linear problem and severly truncated to a few modes; 54 degrees of freedom are retained. Some nonlinear terms of the equations are evaluated in physical space and then projected onto the functional space; other terms are evaluated directly in the functional space. Sensitivity tests to variations of the parameters are performed, and some results from 10-year initial value simulations are presented. The model is capable of supporting oscillations of different time scales, ranging from a few days to a few years; it prefers a particular zonally asymmetric state, but temporarily switches to a different (opposite) zonally asymmetric state in an event-like fashion.

a Low-Order Model of the Equatorial Ocean-Atmosphere System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legnani, Roberto

A low order model of the equatorial ocean-atmosphere coupled system is presented. The model atmosphere includes a hydrological cycle with cloud-radiation interaction. The model ocean is based on mixed layer dynamics with a parameterization of entrainment processes. The coupling takes place via transfer to momentum, sensible heat, latent heat and short -wave and long-wave radiation through the ocean surface. The dynamical formulation is that of the primitive equations of an equatorial beta-plane, with zonally periodic and meridionally infinite geometry. The system is expanded into the set of normal modes pertinent to the linear problem and severely truncated to a few modes; 54 degrees of freedom are retained. Some nonlinear terms of the equations are evaluated in physical space and then projected onto the functional space; other terms are evaluated directly in the functional space. Sensitivity tests to variations of the parameters are performed, and some results from 10-year initial value simulations are presented. The model is capable of supporting oscillations of different time scales, ranging from a few days to a few years; it prefers a particular zonally asymmetric state, but temporarily switches to a different (opposite) zonally asymmetric state in an event-like fashion.

Sensitivity of Totten Glacier Ice Shelf extent and grounding line to oceanic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelle, T.; Morlighem, M.; Choi, Y.

2017-12-01

Totten Glacier is a major outlet glacier of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and has been shown to be vulnerable to ocean-induced melt in both its past and present states. The intrusion of warm, circumpolar deep water beneath the Totten Glacier Ice Shelf (TGIS) has been observed to accelerate ice shelf thinning and promote iceberg calving, a primary mechanism of mass discharge from Totten. As such, accurately simulating TGIS's ice front dynamics is crucial to the predictive capabilities of ice sheet models in this region. Here, we study the TGIS using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and test the applicability of three calving laws: Crevasse Formation calving, Eigen calving, and Tensile Stress calving. We simulate the evolution of Totten Glacier through 2100 under enhanced oceanic forcing in order to investigate both future changes in ice front dynamics and possible thresholds of instability. In addition, we artificially retreat Totten's ice front position and allow the model to proceed dynamically in order to analyze the response of the glacier to calving events. Our analyses show that Tensile Stress calving most accurately reproduces Totten Glacier's observed ice front position. Furthermore, unstable grounding line retreat is projected when Totten is simulated under stronger oceanic thermal forcing scenarios and when the calving front is significantly retreated.

Closing the Seasonal Ocean Surface Temperature Balance in the Eastern Tropical Oceans from Remote Sensing and Model Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Clayson, C. A.

2012-01-01

Residual forcing necessary to close the MLTB on seasonal time scales are largest in regions of strongest surface heat flux forcing. Identifying the dominant source of error - surface heat flux error, mixed layer depth estimation, ocean dynamical forcing - remains a challenge in the eastern tropical oceans where ocean processes are very active. Improved sub-surface observations are necessary to better constrain errors. 1. Mixed layer depth evolution is critical to the seasonal evolution of mixed layer temperatures. It determines the inertia of the mixed layer, and scales the sensitivity of the MLTB to errors in surface heat flux and ocean dynamical forcing. This role produces timing impacts for errors in SST prediction. 2. Errors in the MLTB are larger than the historical 10Wm-2 target accuracy. In some regions, a larger accuracy can be tolerated if the goal is to resolve the seasonal SST cycle.

Global warming and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature: Why models and observations do not agree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coats, Sloan; Karnauskas, Kristopher

2017-04-01

The pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean provides an important control on global climate, necessitating an understanding of how this pattern will change in response to anthropogenic radiative forcing. State-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) overwhelmingly project a decrease in the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient over the coming century. This decrease is, in part, a response of the ocean to a weakening Walker circulation in the CMIP5 models, a consequence of the mass and energy balances of the hydrologic cycle identified by Held and Soden (2006). CMIP5 models, however, are not able to reproduce the observed increase in the zonal SST gradient between 1900-2013 C.E., which we argue to be robust using advanced statistical techniques and new observational datasets. While this increase is suggestive of the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism of Clement et al. (1996), we provide evidence that a strengthening Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) also contributes to eastern equatorial Pacific cooling. Importantly, the strengthening EUC is a response of the ocean to a weakening Walker circulation and thus can help to reconcile the range of opposing theories and observations of anthropogenic climate change in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Because of a newly identified bias in their simulation of equatorial coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics, however, CMIP5 models do not capture the magnitude of the response of the EUC to anthropogenic radiative forcing. Consequently, they project a continuation of the opposite to what has been observed in the real world, with potentially serious consequences for projected climate impacts that are influenced by the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Numerical simulation of the world ocean circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takano, K.; Mintz, Y.; Han, Y. J.

1973-01-01

A multi-level model, based on the primitive equations, is developed for simulating the temperature and velocity fields produced in the world ocean by differential heating and surface wind stress. The model ocean has constant depth, free slip at the lower boundary, and neglects momentum advection; so that there is no energy exchange between the barotropic and baroclinic components of the motion, although the former influences the latter through temperature advection. The ocean model was designed to be coupled to the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model, for the study of the dynamics of climate and climate changes. But here, the model is tested by prescribing the observed seasonally varying surface wind stress and the incident solar radiation, the surface air temperature and humidity, cloudiness and the surface wind speed, which, together with the predicted ocean surface temperature, determine the surface flux of radiant energy, sensible heat and latent heat.

Mathematical Modelling of Plankton-Oxygen Dynamics Under the Climate Change.

PubMed

Sekerci, Yadigar; Petrovskii, Sergei

2015-12-01

Ocean dynamics is known to have a strong effect on the global climate change and on the composition of the atmosphere. In particular, it is estimated that about 70% of the atmospheric oxygen is produced in the oceans due to the photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton. However, the rate of oxygen production depends on water temperature and hence can be affected by the global warming. In this paper, we address this issue theoretically by considering a model of a coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics where the rate of oxygen production slowly changes with time to account for the ocean warming. We show that a sustainable oxygen production is only possible in an intermediate range of the production rate. If, in the course of time, the oxygen production rate becomes too low or too high, the system's dynamics changes abruptly, resulting in the oxygen depletion and plankton extinction. Our results indicate that the depletion of atmospheric oxygen on global scale (which, if happens, obviously can kill most of life on Earth) is another possible catastrophic consequence of the global warming, a global ecological disaster that has been overlooked.

Multiple solutions and numerical analysis to the dynamic and stationary models coupling a delayed energy balance model involving latent heat and discontinuous albedo with a deep ocean.

PubMed

Díaz, J I; Hidalgo, A; Tello, L

2014-10-08

We study a climatologically important interaction of two of the main components of the geophysical system by adding an energy balance model for the averaged atmospheric temperature as dynamic boundary condition to a diagnostic ocean model having an additional spatial dimension. In this work, we give deeper insight than previous papers in the literature, mainly with respect to the 1990 pioneering model by Watts and Morantine. We are taking into consideration the latent heat for the two phase ocean as well as a possible delayed term. Non-uniqueness for the initial boundary value problem, uniqueness under a non-degeneracy condition and the existence of multiple stationary solutions are proved here. These multiplicity results suggest that an S-shaped bifurcation diagram should be expected to occur in this class of models generalizing previous energy balance models. The numerical method applied to the model is based on a finite volume scheme with nonlinear weighted essentially non-oscillatory reconstruction and Runge-Kutta total variation diminishing for time integration.

Free oscillations in a climate model with ice-sheet dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kallen, E.; Crafoord, C.; Ghil, M.

1979-01-01

A study of stable periodic solutions to a simple nonlinear model of the ocean-atmosphere-ice system is presented. The model has two dependent variables: ocean-atmosphere temperature and latitudinal extent of the ice cover. No explicit dependence on latitude is considered in the model. Hence all variables depend only on time and the model consists of a coupled set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The globally averaged ocean-atmosphere temperature in the model is governed by the radiation balance. The reflectivity to incoming solar radiation, i.e., the planetary albedo, includes separate contributions from sea ice and from continental ice sheets. The major physical mechanisms active in the model are (1) albedo-temperature feedback, (2) continental ice-sheet dynamics and (3) precipitation-rate variations. The model has three-equilibrium solutions, two of which are linearly unstable, while one is linearly stable. For some choices of parameters, the stability picture changes and sustained, finite-amplitude oscillations obtain around the previously stable equilibrium solution. The physical interpretation of these oscillations points to the possibility of internal mechanisms playing a role in glaciation cycles.

Multiple solutions and numerical analysis to the dynamic and stationary models coupling a delayed energy balance model involving latent heat and discontinuous albedo with a deep ocean

PubMed Central

Díaz, J. I.; Hidalgo, A.; Tello, L.

2014-01-01

We study a climatologically important interaction of two of the main components of the geophysical system by adding an energy balance model for the averaged atmospheric temperature as dynamic boundary condition to a diagnostic ocean model having an additional spatial dimension. In this work, we give deeper insight than previous papers in the literature, mainly with respect to the 1990 pioneering model by Watts and Morantine. We are taking into consideration the latent heat for the two phase ocean as well as a possible delayed term. Non-uniqueness for the initial boundary value problem, uniqueness under a non-degeneracy condition and the existence of multiple stationary solutions are proved here. These multiplicity results suggest that an S-shaped bifurcation diagram should be expected to occur in this class of models generalizing previous energy balance models. The numerical method applied to the model is based on a finite volume scheme with nonlinear weighted essentially non-oscillatory reconstruction and Runge–Kutta total variation diminishing for time integration. PMID:25294969

Development and evaluation of a high-resolution reanalysis of the East Australian Current region using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS 3.4) and Incremental Strong-Constraint 4-Dimensional Variational (IS4D-Var) data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerry, Colette; Powell, Brian; Roughan, Moninya; Oke, Peter

2016-10-01

As with other Western Boundary Currents globally, the East Australian Current (EAC) is highly variable making it a challenge to model and predict. For the EAC region, we combine a high-resolution state-of-the-art numerical ocean model with a variety of traditional and newly available observations using an advanced variational data assimilation scheme. The numerical model is configured using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS 3.4) and takes boundary forcing from the BlueLink ReANalysis (BRAN3). For the data assimilation, we use an Incremental Strong-Constraint 4-Dimensional Variational (IS4D-Var) scheme, which uses the model dynamics to perturb the initial conditions, atmospheric forcing, and boundary conditions, such that the modelled ocean state better fits and is in balance with the observations. This paper describes the data assimilative model configuration that achieves a significant reduction of the difference between the modelled solution and the observations to give a dynamically consistent "best estimate" of the ocean state over a 2-year period. The reanalysis is shown to represent both assimilated and non-assimilated observations well. It achieves mean spatially averaged root mean squared (rms) residuals with the observations of 7.6 cm for sea surface height (SSH) and 0.4 °C for sea surface temperature (SST) over the assimilation period. The time-mean rms residual for subsurface temperature measured by Argo floats is a maximum of 0.9 °C between water depths of 100 and 300 m and smaller throughout the rest of the water column. Velocities at several offshore and continental shelf moorings are well represented in the reanalysis with complex correlations between 0.8 and 1 for all observations in the upper 500 m. Surface radial velocities from a high-frequency radar array are assimilated and the reanalysis provides surface velocity estimates with complex correlations with observed velocities of 0.8-1 across the radar footprint. A comparison with independent (non-assimilated) shipboard conductivity temperature depth (CTD) cast observations shows a marked improvement in the representation of the subsurface ocean in the reanalysis, with the rms residual in potential density reduced to about half of the residual with the free-running model in the upper eddy-influenced part of the water column. This shows that information is successfully propagated from observed variables to unobserved regions as the assimilation system uses the model dynamics to adjust the model state estimate. This is the first study to generate a reanalysis of the region at such a high resolution, making use of an unprecedented observational data set and using an assimilation method that uses the time-evolving model physics to adjust the model in a dynamically consistent way. As such, the reanalysis potentially represents a marked improvement in our ability to capture important circulation dynamics in the EAC. The reanalysis is being used to study EAC dynamics, observation impact in state-estimation, and as forcing for a variety of downscaling studies.

A Hierarchical and Dynamic Seascape Framework for Scaling and Comparing Ocean Biodiversity Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavanaugh, M.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Montes, E.; Santora, J. A.; Chavez, F.; Messié, M.; Doney, S. C.

2016-02-01

The pelagic ocean is a complex system in which physical, chemical and biological processes interact to shape patterns on multiple spatial and temporal scales and levels of ecological organization. Monitoring and management of marine seascapes must consider a hierarchical and dynamic mosaic, where the boundaries, extent, and location of features change with time. As part of a Marine Biodiversity Observing Network demonstration project, we conducted a multiscale classification of dynamic coastal seascapes in the northeastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico using multivariate satellite and modeled data. Synoptic patterns were validated using mooring and ship-based observations that spanned multiple trophic levels and were collected as part of several long-term monitoring programs, including the Monterey Bay and Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuaries. Seascape extent and habitat diversity varied as a function of both seasonal and interannual forcing. We discuss the patterns of in situ observations in the context of seascape dynamics and the effect on rarefaction, spatial patchiness, and tracking and comparing ecosystems through time. A seascape framework presents an effective means to translate local biodiversity measurements to broader spatiotemporal scales, scales relevant for modeling the effects of global change and enabling whole-ecosystem management in the dynamic ocean.

On the Effect of Offshore Wind Parks on Ocean Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludewig, E.; Pohlmann, T.

2012-12-01

Nowadays renewable energy resources play a key role in the energy supply discussion and especially an increasingly interest in wind energy induces intensified installations of wind parks. At this offshore wind energy gains in popularity in the course of higher and more consistent energy availability than over land. For example Germany's government adopted a national interurban offshore wind energy program comprising the construction of hundreds of wind turbines within Germany's Exclusive Economic Zone to ensure up to 50% of Germany's renewable energy supply. The large number of installation in coastal regions asks for analyzing the impact of offshore wind parks (OWPs) on the atmosphere and the ocean. As known from literature such wind parks excite also-called wake-effect and such an influence on the wind field in turn affects ocean circulation. To cover OWP's impact on ocean dynamics we evaluate model simulations using the Hamburg Shelf-Ocean-Model (HAMSOM). All simulations were driven with a wind forcing produced by the Mesoscale Atmosphere Model of the Hamburg University (METRAS) which has implemented wind turbines. Wind forcing data were generated in collaboration with and by courtesy of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg, Department Technical Meteorology, Numeric Modeling-METRAS. To evaluate dynamical changes forced by the OWP's wind wake-effect we did a sensitivity study with a theoretical setup of a virtual ocean of 60m depth with a flat bottom and a temperature and salinity stratification according to common North Sea's conditions. Here our results show that already a small OWP of 12 wind turbines, placed in an area of 4 km^2, lead to a complex change in ocean dynamics. Due to the wake-effect zones of upwelling and downwelling are formed within a minute after turning-on wind turbines. The evolving vertical cells have a size of around 15x15 kilometers with a vertical velocity in order of 10^-2 mm/sec influencing the dynamic of an area being hundred times bigger than the wind park itself. The emerged vertical structure is generated due to a newly created geostrophic balance resulting in a redistribution of the ocean mass field. A number of additional upwelling and downwelling cells around the wind park support an intensified vertical dispersion through all layers and incline the thermocline which also influences the lower levels. The disturbances of mass show a dipole structure across the main wind direction with a maximum change in thermocline depth of some meters close to the OWP. Diffusion, mostly driven by direct wind induced surface shear is also modified by the wind turbines and supports a further modification of the vertical patterns. Considering that wind turbines operate only in a special window of wind speed, i.e. wind turbines will stop in case of too weak or too strong wind speeds as well as in case of technical issues, the averaged dimension and intensity of occurring vertical cells depend on the number of rotors and expected wind speeds. Finally we will focus on scenario runs for the North Sea under fully realistic conditions to estimate possible changes in ocean dynamics due to OWPs in future and these results will be further used for process analyzes of the ecosystem. If we assume a continuous operation of North Sea's OWPs in future we expect a fundamental constant change in ocean dynamics and moreover in the ecosystem in its vicinity.

Nutrient Distributions, Transports, and Budgets on the Inner Margin of a River-Dominated Continental Shelf

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-02

and budgets on the inner margin of a river-dominated continental shelf, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans , 118, 4822–4838, doi:10.1002/jgrc.20362. 1...13/10.1002/jgrc.20362 4822 JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH: OCEANS , VOL. 118, 4822–4838, doi:10.1002/jgrc.20362, 2013 Report Documentation Page Form...shelf, and current velocities obtained from a three-dimensional (3-D) hydro- dynamic model (the Navy Coastal Ocean Model). The budget terms were used to

Investigating the Equatorial Gaps in Snowball Earth Sea Glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spaulding-Astudillo, F.; Ashkenazy, Y.; Tziperman, E.; Abbot, D. S.

2017-12-01

The way photosynthetic life survived the Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth events is still a matter of debate that has deep implications for planetary habitability. One option is that gaps in thick, semi-global ice coverage (sea glaciers) could be maintained at the equator by ocean-ice-atmosphere dynamics. We investigate this idea by modifying a global ocean-thick-marine-ice model developed for modeling Neoproterozoic Snowball Events to account for gaps in thick ice and interactions with atmospheric dynamics. Our hypothesis is that in the parameter regime that allows for sea glacier flow, ice flow will make gaps in the thick ice, and therefore an open ocean solution, less likely. This would suggest that oases in thick ice are a more viable survival mechanism for photosynthetic life during a Snowball Earth event.

A Tale of Two Forcings: Present-Day Coupled Antarctic Ice-sheet/Southern Ocean dynamics using the POPSICLES model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Daniel; Asay-Davis, Xylar; Cornford, Stephen; Price, Stephen; Ng, Esmond; Collins, William

2015-04-01

We present POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period 1990 to 2010 resulting from two different choices of climate forcing: a 'normal-year' climatology and the CORE v. 2 interannual forcing data (Large and Yeager 2008). Simulations are performed at 0.1o (~5 km) ocean resolution and adaptive ice sheet resolution as fine as 500 m. We compare time-averaged melt rates below a number of major ice shelves with those reported by Rignot et al. (2013) as well as other recent studies. We also present seasonal variability and decadal melting trends from several Antarctic regions, along with the response of the ice shelves and consequent dynamics of the grounded ice sheet. POPSICLES couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), and the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement and a 1st-order accurate momentum balance similar to the L1L2 model of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009) to accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests (MISMIP-3d; Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014).

The Role of Ocean Eddies in the Southern Ocean Response to Observed Greenhouse Gas Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilgen, S. I.; Kirtman, B. P.

2017-12-01

The Southern Ocean (SO) is crucial to understanding the possible future response to a changing climate. This is a principal region where energy is conveyed to the ocean by the westerly winds and it is here that mesoscale ocean eddies field dominate meridional heat and momentum transport. Compared to the Arctic, the Antarctic and the surrounding SO have a "delayed warming" anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) response. Understanding the role of the ocean dynamics in modulating the mesoscale atmosphere-ocean interactions in the SO in a fully coupled regime is crucial to efforts aimed at predicting the consequences of the warming and variability to the climate system. The response of model run at multiple resolutions (eddy permitting, eddy resolving) to both GHG forcing and historical forcing are examined in NCAR CCSM4 with four experiments. The first simulation, 0.5° atmosphere coupled to ocean and sea ice components with 1° resolution (LR). The second simulation uses the identical atmospheric model but coupled to 0.1° ocean and sea ice component models (HR). For the third and fourth experiments, the global ocean is simulated for LR an HR models, and a climate change scenario are produced by applying a fixed (present-day) CO2 concentration. The analysis focuses on the last 55 years of two individual 155 year simulations. We discuss results from a set of state-of-art model experiments in comparison with observational estimates and explore mechanisms by examining sea surface temperature, westerly winds, surface heat flux, ocean heat transport. In LR simulations, the patterns and mechanisms of SO changes under GHG forcing are similar to those over the historical period: warming is damped southward of the ACC and enhanced to the north, however major changes between the HR simulations are explored. We find that in recent decades the Southern Annual Mode has shown a distinct upward trend, the result of an anthropogenic global warming. Also, HR simulations show that strengthening of the SAM and associated surface wind stress have been invoked to posit enhancement in the strength of the upwelling of the MOC, and increases eddy activity of the ACC. The results also indicate that eddy-permitting models are not able to capture the eddy-driven SST response since ocean dynamics is playing crucial role in the HR simulation but not in the LR models.

Indices and Dynamics of Global Hydroclimate Over the Past Millennium from Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steiger, N. J.; Smerdon, J. E.

2017-12-01

Reconstructions based on data assimilation (DA) are at the forefront of model-data syntheses in that such reconstructions optimally fuse proxy data with climate models. DA-based paleoclimate reconstructions have the benefit of being physically-consistent across the reconstructed climate variables and are capable of providing dynamical information about past climate phenomena. Here we use a new implementation of DA, that includes updated proxy system models and climate model bias correction procedures, to reconstruct global hydroclimate on seasonal and annual timescales over the last millennium. This new global hydroclimate product includes reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and global surface temperature along with dynamical variables including the Nino 3.4 index, the latitudinal location of the intertropical convergence zone, and an index of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Here we present a validation of the reconstruction product and also elucidate the causes of severe drought in North America and in equatorial Africa. Specifically, we explore the connection between droughts in North America and modes of ocean variability in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We also link drought over equatorial Africa to shifts of the intertropical convergence zone and modes of ocean variability.

Ocean-Wave Dynamics Analysis during Hurricane Ida and Norida Using a Fully Coupled Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olabarrieta, M.; Warner, J. C.; Armstrong, B. N.

2010-12-01

Extreme storms, such as hurricanes and extratropical storms play a dominant role in shaping the beaches of the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States. Future tropical depressions will be more intense than in the present climate (Assessment Report of IPCC, 2007) and therefore coastal areas are likely to become more susceptible to their effects. The major damage caused by these extreme events is associated with the duration of the storm, storm intensity, waves, and the total water levels reached during the storm. Numerical models provide a useful approach to study the spatial and temporal distribution of these parameters. However, the correct estimation of the total water levels and wind wave heights through numerical modeling requires accurate representation of the air-sea interface dynamics. These processes are highly complex due to the variable interactions between winds, ocean waves and currents near the sea surface. In the present research we use the COAWST (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport) modeling system (Warner et al., 2010) to address the key role of the atmosphere-ocean-wave interactions during Hurricane Ida and its posterior evolution to NorIda, November 2009. This northeastern storm was one of the most costly in the past two decades and likely in the top five of the past century. One interesting aspect of the considered period is that it includes two very different atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a northeastern storm, developed in regions with very different oceanographic characteristics. By performing a suite of numerical runs we are able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (WRF model), the ocean (ROMS model) and the wave propagation and generation model (SWAN). Special attention is given to the role of the ocean surface roughness and high resolution SST fields on the atmospheric boundary layers dynamics and consequently these effects on the wind wave generation, surface currents and storm surge. The effects of ocean currents on wind wave generation and propagations are also analyzed. The model results are compared to different data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the NDBC and the National Tidal Database respectively. The results identified that the inclusion of the ocean roughness on the atmospheric module greatly improves the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves and the storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Ida through the Gulf of Mexico the wind speeds are reduced due to the wave induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During NorIda, the effect of the surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. Three different ocean roughness closure models are analyzed, with the wave-age based closure model providing the best results. Ocean currents are also shown to affect wave spectral characteristics through the generation and propagation processes. Changes within 15% on the significant wave height are detected in areas affected by the main oceanic currents: the Gulf Stream and the Loop Current.

Using stable isotopes and models to explore estuarine linkages at multiple scales

EPA Science Inventory

Estuarine managers need tools to respond to dynamic stressors that occur in three linked environments – coastal ocean, estuaries and watersheds. Models have been the tool of choice for examining these dynamic systems because they simplify processes and integrate over multiple sc...

Ocean Data Assimilation in Support of Climate Applications: Status and Perspectives.

PubMed

Stammer, D; Balmaseda, M; Heimbach, P; Köhl, A; Weaver, A

2016-01-01

Ocean data assimilation brings together observations with known dynamics encapsulated in a circulation model to describe the time-varying ocean circulation. Its applications are manifold, ranging from marine and ecosystem forecasting to climate prediction and studies of the carbon cycle. Here, we address only climate applications, which range from improving our understanding of ocean circulation to estimating initial or boundary conditions and model parameters for ocean and climate forecasts. Because of differences in underlying methodologies, data assimilation products must be used judiciously and selected according to the specific purpose, as not all related inferences would be equally reliable. Further advances are expected from improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information in data assimilation systems. Ultimately, data assimilation into coupled climate system components is needed to support ocean and climate services. However, maintaining the infrastructure and expertise for sustained data assimilation remains challenging.

An iceberg model implementation in ACME.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comeau, D.; Turner, A. K.; Hunke, E. C.

2017-12-01

Icebergs represent approximately half of the mass flux from the Antarctic ice sheet, transporting freshwater and nutrients away from the coast to the Southern Ocean. Icebergs impact the surrounding ocean and sea ice environment, and serve as nutrient sources for biogeochemical activity, yet these processes are typically not resolved in current climate models. We have implemented a parameterization for iceberg drift and decay into the Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), where the ocean, sea ice, and land ice components are based on the unstructured grid modeling framework Multiple Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), to improve the representation of Antarctic mass flux to the Southern Ocean and its impacts on ocean stratification and circulation, sea ice, and biogeochemical processes in a fully coupled global climate model. The iceberg model is implemented in two frameworks: Lagrangian and Eulerian. The Lagrangian framework embeds individual icebergs into the ocean and sea ice grids, and will be useful in modeling `giant' (>10 nautical miles) iceberg events, which may have highly localized impacts on ocean and sea ice. The Eulerian framework allows us to model a realistic population of Antarctic icebergs without the computational expense of individual particle tracking to simulate the aggregate impact on the Southern Ocean climate system. This capability, together with under ice-shelf ocean cavities and dynamic ice-shelf fronts, will allow for extremely high fidelity simulation of the southern cryosphere within ACME.

GEM: a dynamic tracking model for mesoscale eddies in the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiu-Yang; Sun, Liang; Lin, Sheng-Fu

2016-12-01

The Genealogical Evolution Model (GEM) presented here is an efficient logical model used to track dynamic evolution of mesoscale eddies in the ocean. It can distinguish between different dynamic processes (e.g., merging and splitting) within a dynamic evolution pattern, which is difficult to accomplish using other tracking methods. To this end, the GEM first uses a two-dimensional (2-D) similarity vector (i.e., a pair of ratios of overlap area between two eddies to the area of each eddy) rather than a scalar to measure the similarity between eddies, which effectively solves the "missing eddy" problem (temporarily lost eddy in tracking). Second, for tracking when an eddy splits, the GEM uses both "parent" (the original eddy) and "child" (eddy split from parent) and the dynamic processes are described as the birth and death of different generations. Additionally, a new look-ahead approach with selection rules effectively simplifies computation and recording. All of the computational steps are linear and do not include iteration. Given the pixel number of the target region L, the maximum number of eddies M, the number N of look-ahead time steps, and the total number of time steps T, the total computer time is O(LM(N + 1)T). The tracking of each eddy is very smooth because we require that the snapshots of each eddy on adjacent days overlap one another. Although eddy splitting or merging is ubiquitous in the ocean, they have different geographic distributions in the North Pacific Ocean. Both the merging and splitting rates of the eddies are high, especially at the western boundary, in currents and in "eddy deserts". The GEM is useful not only for satellite-based observational data, but also for numerical simulation outputs. It is potentially useful for studying dynamic processes in other related fields, e.g., the dynamics of cyclones in meteorology.

Toward Dynamic Ocean Management: Fisheries assessment and climate projections informed by community developed habitat models based on dynamic coastal oceanography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohut, J. T.; Manderson, J.; Palamara, L. J.; Saba, V. S.; Saba, G.; Hare, J. A.; Curchitser, E. N.; Moore, P.; Seibel, B.; DiDomenico, G.

2016-12-01

Through a multidisciplinary study group of experts in marine ecology, physical oceanography and stock assessment from the fishing industry, government and academia we developed a method to explicitly account for shifting habitat distributions in fish population assessments. We used data from field surveys throughout the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to develop a parametric thermal niche model for an important short-lived pelagic forage fish, Atlantic Butterfish. This niche model was coupled to a hindcast of daily bottom water temperature derived from a regional numerical ocean model in order to project daily thermal habitat suitability over the last 40 years. This ecological hindcast was used to estimate the proportion of thermal habitat suitability available on the U.S. Northeast Shelf that was sampled on fishery-independent surveys, accounting for the relative motions of thermal habitat and the trajectory of sampling on the survey. The method and habitat based estimates of availability was integrated into the catchability estimate used to scale population size in the butterfish stock assessment model accepted by the reviewers of the 59th NEFSC stock assessment review, as well as the mid-Atlantic Council's Scientific and Statistical Committee. The contribution of the availability estimate (along with an estimate of detectability) allowed for the development of fishery reference points, a change in stock status from unknown to known, and the establishment of a directed fishery with an allocation of 20,000 metric tons of quota. This presentation will describe how a community based workgroup utilized ocean observing technologies combined with ocean models to better understand the physical ocean that structures marine ecosystems. Using these approaches we will discuss opportunities to inform ecological hindcasts and climate projections with mechanistic models that link species-specific physiology to climate-based thermal scenarios.

Toward Dynamic Ocean Management: Fisheries assessment and climate projections informed by community developed habitat models based on dynamic coastal oceanography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohut, J. T.; Manderson, J.; Palamara, L. J.; Saba, V. S.; Saba, G.; Hare, J. A.; Curchitser, E. N.; Moore, P.; Seibel, B.; DiDomenico, G.

2016-02-01

Through a multidisciplinary study group of experts in marine ecology, physical oceanography and stock assessment from the fishing industry, government and academia we developed a method to explicitly account for shifting habitat distributions in fish population assessments. We used data from field surveys throughout the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to develop a parametric thermal niche model for an important short-lived pelagic forage fish, Atlantic Butterfish. This niche model was coupled to a hindcast of daily bottom water temperature derived from a regional numerical ocean model in order to project daily thermal habitat suitability over the last 40 years. This ecological hindcast was used to estimate the proportion of thermal habitat suitability available on the U.S. Northeast Shelf that was sampled on fishery-independent surveys, accounting for the relative motions of thermal habitat and the trajectory of sampling on the survey. The method and habitat based estimates of availability was integrated into the catchability estimate used to scale population size in the butterfish stock assessment model accepted by the reviewers of the 59th NEFSC stock assessment review, as well as the mid-Atlantic Council's Scientific and Statistical Committee. The contribution of the availability estimate (along with an estimate of detectability) allowed for the development of fishery reference points, a change in stock status from unknown to known, and the establishment of a directed fishery with an allocation of 20,000 metric tons of quota. This presentation will describe how a community based workgroup utilized ocean observing technologies combined with ocean models to better understand the physical ocean that structures marine ecosystems. Using these approaches we will discuss opportunities to inform ecological hindcasts and climate projections with mechanistic models that link species-specific physiology to climate-based thermal scenarios.

Role of the North Atlantic Ocean in Low Frequency Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danabasoglu, G.; Yeager, S. G.; Kim, W. M.; Castruccio, F. S.

2017-12-01

The Atlantic Ocean is a unique basin with its extensive, North - South overturning circulation, referred to as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). AMOC is thought to represent the dynamical memory of the climate system, playing an important role in decadal and longer time scale climate variability as well as prediction of the earth's future climate on these time scales via its large heat and salt transports. This oceanic memory is communicated to the atmosphere primarily through the influence of persistent sea surface temperature (SST) variations. Indeed, many modeling studies suggest that ocean circulation, i.e., AMOC, is largely responsible for the creation of coherent SST variability in the North Atlantic, referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). AMV has been linked to many (multi)decadal climate variations in, e.g., Sahel and Brazilian rainfall, Atlantic hurricane activity, and Arctic sea-ice extent. In the absence of long, continuous observations, much of the evidence for the ocean's role in (multi)decadal variability comes from model simulations. Although models tend to agree on the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in creating the density anomalies that proceed the changes in ocean circulation, model fidelity in representing variability characteristics, mechanisms, and air-sea interactions remains a serious concern. In particular, there is increasing evidence that models significantly underestimate low frequency variability in the North Atlantic compared to available observations. Such model deficiencies can amplify the relative influence of external or stochastic atmospheric forcing in generating (multi)decadal variability, i.e., AMV, at the expense of ocean dynamics. Here, a succinct overview of the current understanding of the (North) Atlantic Ocean's role on the regional and global climate, including some outstanding questions, will be presented. In addition, a few examples of the climate impacts of the AMV via atmospheric teleconnections from a set of coupled simulations, also considering the relative roles of its tropical and extratropical components, will be highlighted.

The response of grounded ice to ocean temperature forcing in a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean cavity model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D. N.; Little, C. M.; Sergienko, O. V.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2010-12-01

Ice shelves provide a pathway for the heat content of the ocean to influence continental ice sheets. Changes in the rate or location of basal melting can alter their geometry and effect changes in stress conditions at the grounding line, leading to a grounded ice response. Recent observations of ice streams and ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica have been consistent with this story. On the other hand, ice dynamics in the grounding zone control flux into the shelf and thus ice shelf geometry, which has a strong influence on the circulation in the cavity beneath the shelf. Thus the coupling between the two systems, ocean and ice sheet-ice shelf, can be quite strong. We examine the response of the ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean cavity system to changes in ocean temperature using a recently developed coupled model. The coupled model consists a 3-D ocean model (GFDL's Generalized Ocean Layered Dynamics model, or GOLD) to a two-dimensional ice sheet-ice shelf model (Goldberg et al, 2009), and allows for changing cavity geometry and a migrating grounding line. Steady states of the coupled system are found even under considerable forcing. The ice shelf morphology and basal melt rate patterns of the steady states exhibit detailed structure, and furthermore seem to be unique and robust. The relationship between temperature forcing and area-averaged melt rate is influenced by the response of ice shelf morphology to thermal forcing, and is found to be sublinear in the range of forcing considered. However, results suggest that area-averaged melt rate is not the best predictor of overall system response, as grounding line stability depends on local aspects of the basal melt field. Goldberg, D N, D M Holland and C G Schoof, 2009. Grounding line movement and ice shelf buttressing in marine ice sheets, Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surfaces, 114, F04026.

Coastal Ocean Variability off the Coast of Taiwan in Response to Typhoon Morakot: River Forcing, Atmospheric Forcing, and Cold Dome Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

within a very short time period and in this research, we model and study the effects of this rainfall on Taiwan?s coastal oceans as a result of river...and in this research, we model and study the effects of this rainfall on Taiwan’s coastal oceans as a result of river discharge. We do this through...54 4 Results 57 4.1 Effects of Footprint Shape on the Bulk Mixing Model . . . . . . . . . 57 4.2 Effects of the Horizontal Extent of the Bulk

The Equations of Oceanic Motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Peter

2006-10-01

Modeling and prediction of oceanographic phenomena and climate is based on the integration of dynamic equations. The Equations of Oceanic Motions derives and systematically classifies the most common dynamic equations used in physical oceanography, from large scale thermohaline circulations to those governing small scale motions and turbulence. After establishing the basic dynamical equations that describe all oceanic motions, M|ller then derives approximate equations, emphasizing the assumptions made and physical processes eliminated. He distinguishes between geometric, thermodynamic and dynamic approximations and between the acoustic, gravity, vortical and temperature-salinity modes of motion. Basic concepts and formulae of equilibrium thermodynamics, vector and tensor calculus, curvilinear coordinate systems, and the kinematics of fluid motion and wave propagation are covered in appendices. Providing the basic theoretical background for graduate students and researchers of physical oceanography and climate science, this book will serve as both a comprehensive text and an essential reference.

Regional Geoid Modeling Compared to Ocean Surface Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, D. R.; Saleh, J.; Wang, Y. M.

2007-05-01

Aerogravity over a limited coastal region of the northern Gulf of Mexico enhanced and rectified the local gravity field signal. In turn, these data improved the derived geoid height model based on comparison with dynamic ocean topography (DOT) and tide gage information at eleven stations. Additionally, lidar observations were analyzed along nearly 50 profiles to estimate the reliability of these models into the offshore region. The overall comparison shows dm-level agreement between the various geoid and DOT models and ocean surface observations. An approximate 30 cm bias must still be explained; however, the results of this study point to the potential for further cooperative studies between oceanographers and geodesists.

M2, S2, K1 models of the global ocean tide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parke, M. E.; Hendershott, M. C.

1979-01-01

Ocean tidal signals appear in many geophysical measurements. Geophysicists need realistic tidal models to aid in interpretation of their data. Because of the closeness to resonance of dissipationless ocean tides, it is difficult for numerical models to correctly represent the actual open ocean tide. As an approximate solution to this problem, test functions derived by solving Laplace's Tidal Equations with ocean loading and self gravitation are used as a basis for least squares dynamic interpolation of coastal and island tidal data for the constituents M2, S2, and Kl. The resulting representations of the global tide are stable over at least a ?5% variation in the mean depth of the model basin, and they conserve mass. Maps of the geocentric tide, the induced free space potential, the induced vertical component of the solid earth tide, and the induced vertical component of the gravitational field for each contituent are presented.

Acoustic measurement of sediment dynamics in the coastal zones using wireless sensor networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudhakaran, A., II; Paramasivam, A.; Seshachalam, S.; A, C.

2014-12-01

Analyzing of the impact of constructive or low energy waves and deconstructive or high energy waves in the ocean are very much significant since they deform the geometry of seashore. The deformation may lead to productive result and also to the end of deteriorate damage. Constructive waves results deposition of sediment which widens the beach where as deconstructive waves results erosion which narrows the beach. Validation of historic sediment transportation and prediction of the direction of movement of seashore is essential to prevent unrecoverable damages by incorporating precautionary measurements to identify the factors that influence sediment transportation if feasible. The objective of this study is to propose a more reliable and energy efficient Information and communication system to model the Coastal Sediment Dynamics. Various factors influencing the sediment drift at a particular region is identified. Consequence of source depth and frequency dependencies of spread pattern in the presence of sediments is modeled. Property of source depth and frequency on sensitivity to values of model parameters are determined. Fundamental physical reasons for these sediment interaction effects are given. Shallow to deep water and internal and external wave model of ocean is obtained intended to get acoustic data assimilation (ADA). Signal processing algorithms are used over the observed data to form a full field acoustic propagation model and construct sound speed profile (SSP). The inversions of data due to uncertainties at various depths are compared. The impact of sediment drift over acoustic data is identified. An energy efficient multipath routing scheme Wireless sensor networks (WSN) is deployed for the well-organized communication of data. The WSN is designed considering increased life time, decreased power consumption, free of threats and attacks. The practical data obtained from the efficient system to model the ocean sediment dynamics are evaluated with remote sensing data and the reasons of deviations and uncertainties are unbiased. The probability of changes and impact of sediment drift over ocean dynamic model over the long running of years is estimated.

Oceanographic results from analysis of ERS-1 altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tapley, B. D.; Shum, C. K.; Chambers, D. P.; Peterson, G. E.; Ries, J. C.

1994-01-01

Large scale dynamic ocean topography and its variations were observed using ERS-1 radar altimeter measurements. The altimeter measurements analyzed are primarily from the ESA ocean product (OPR02) and from the Interim Geophysical Data Records (IGDR) generated by NOAA from the fast delivery (FD) data during the ERS-1 35 day repeat orbit phase. The precise orbits used for the dynamic topography solution are computed using dual satellite crossover measurements from ERS-1 and TOPEX (Topology Ocean Experiment)/Poseidon (T/P) as additional tracking data, and using improved models and constants which are consistent with T/P. Analysis of the ERS-1 dynamic topography solution indicates agreement with the T/P solution at the 5 cm root mean square level, with regional differences as large as 15 cm tide gauges at the 8 to 9 cm level. There are differences between the ERS-1 OPR02 and IGDR determined dynamic topography solutions on the order of 5 cm root mean square. Mesoscale oceanic variability time series obtained using collinear analysis of the ERS-1 altimeter data show good qualitative agreement when compared with the T/P results.

Satellite-enhanced dynamical downscaling for the analysis of extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, Ana M. B.

2016-09-01

The use of regional models in the downscaling of general circulation models provides a strategy to generate more detailed climate information. In that case, boundary-forcing techniques can be useful to maintain the large-scale features from the coarse-resolution global models in agreement with the inner modes of the higher-resolution regional models. Although those procedures might improve dynamics, downscaling via regional modeling still aims for better representation of physical processes. With the purpose of improving dynamics and physical processes in regional downscaling of global reanalysis, the Regional Spectral Model—originally developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction—employs a newly reformulated scale-selective bias correction, together with the 3-hourly assimilation of the satellite-based precipitation estimates constructed from the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique. The two-scheme technique for the dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis can be applied in analyses of environmental disasters and risk assessment, with hourly outputs, and resolution of about 25 km. Here the satellite-enhanced dynamical downscaling added value is demonstrated in simulations of the first reported hurricane in the western South Atlantic Ocean basin through comparisons with global reanalyses and satellite products available in ocean areas.

Towards Improved Forecasts of Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulations over the Complex Terrain of the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis; Case, Jonathan L.; Papadopoulos, Anastasios; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Mecikalski, John R.; Haines, Stephanie L.

2008-01-01

Forecasting atmospheric and oceanic circulations accurately over the Eastern Mediterranean has proved to be an exceptional challenge. The existence of fine-scale topographic variability (land/sea coverage) and seasonal dynamics variations can create strong spatial gradients in temperature, wind and other state variables, which numerical models may have difficulty capturing. The Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR) is one of the main operational centers for wave forecasting in the eastern Mediterranean. Currently, HCMR's operational numerical weather/ocean prediction model is based on the coupled Eta/Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Since 1999, HCMR has also operated the POSEIDON floating buoys as a means of state-of-the-art, real-time observations of several oceanic and surface atmospheric variables. This study attempts a first assessment at improving both atmospheric and oceanic prediction by initializing a regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model with high-resolution sea surface temperatures (SST) from remotely sensed platforms in order to capture the small-scale characteristics.

Postglacial Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics and Atmospheric CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prentice, C. I.; Harrison, S. P.; Kaplan, J. O.

2002-12-01

Combining PMIP climate model results from the last glacial maximum (LGM) with biome modelling indicates the involvement of both cold, dry climate and physiological effects of low atmospheric CO2 in reducing tree cover on the continents. Further results with the LPJ dynamic vegetation model agree with independent evidence for greatly reduced terrestrial carbon storage at LGM, and suggest that terrestrial carbon storage continued to increase during the Holocene. These results point to predominantly oceanic explanations for preindustrial changes in atmospheric CO2, although land changes after the LGM may have contributed indirectly by reducing the aeolian marine Fe source and (on a longer time scale) by triggering CaCO3 compensation in the ocean.

North Atlantic deep water formation and AMOC in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heuzé, Céline

2017-07-01

Deep water formation in climate models is indicative of their ability to simulate future ocean circulation, carbon and heat uptake, and sea level rise. Present-day temperature, salinity, sea ice concentration and ocean transport in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas from 23 CMIP5 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) models are compared with observations to assess the biases, causes and consequences of North Atlantic deep convection in models. The majority of models convect too deep, over too large an area, too often and too far south. Deep convection occurs at the sea ice edge and is most realistic in models with accurate sea ice extent, mostly those using the CICE model. Half of the models convect in response to local cooling or salinification of the surface waters; only a third have a dynamic relationship between freshwater coming from the Arctic and deep convection. The models with the most intense deep convection have the warmest deep waters, due to a redistribution of heat through the water column. For the majority of models, the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is explained by the volumes of deep water produced in the subpolar gyre and Nordic Seas up to 2 years before. In turn, models with the strongest AMOC have the largest heat export to the Arctic. Understanding the dynamical drivers of deep convection and AMOC in models is hence key to realistically forecasting Arctic oceanic warming and its consequences for the global ocean circulation, cryosphere and marine life.

Microhydrodynamics of flotation processes in the sea surface layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grammatika, Marianne; Zimmerman, William B.

2001-10-01

The uppermost surface of the ocean forms a peculiarly important ecosystem, the sea surface microlayer (SML). Comprising the top 1-1000 μm of the ocean surface, the SML concentrates many chemical substances, particularly those that are surface active. Important economically as a nursery for fish eggs and larvae, the SML unfortunately is also especially vulnerable to pollution. Contaminants that settle out from the air, have low solubility, or attach to floatable matter tend to accumulate in the SML. Bubbles contribute prominently to the dynamics of air-sea exchanges, playing an important role in geochemical cycling of material in the upper ocean and SML. In addition to the movement of bubbles, the development of a bubble cloud interrelates with the single particle dynamics of all other bubbles and particles. In the early sixties, several in situ oceanographic techniques revealed an "unbelievably immense" number of coastal bubbles of radius 15-300 μm. The spatial and temporal variation of bubble numbers were studied; acoustical oceanographers now use bubbles as tracers to determine ocean processes near the ocean surface. Sea state and rain noises have both been definitively ascribed to the radiation from huge numbers of infant micro bubbles [The Acoustic Bubble. Academic Press, San Diego]. Our research programme aims at constructing a hydrodynamic model for particle transport processes occurring at the microscale, in multi-phase flotation suspensions. Current research addresses bubble and floc microhydrodynamics as building blocks for a microscale transport model. This paper reviews sea surface transport processes in the microlayer and the lower atmosphere, and identifies those amenable to microhydrodynamic modelling and simulation. It presents preliminary simulation results including the multi-body hydrodynamic mobility functions for the modelling of "dynamic bubble filters" and floc suspensions. Hydrodynamic interactions versus spatial anisotropy and size of particle clouds are investigated.

APL-UW Deep Water Propagation 2015-2017: Philippine Sea Data Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release: distribution is unlimited APL-UW Deep Water Propagation 2015-2017: Philippine Sea Data...the fundamental statistics of broadband low-frequency acoustical signals evolve during propagation through a dynamically-varying deep ocean. OBJECTIVES...Current models of signal randomization over long ranges in the deep ocean were developed for and tested in the North Pacific Ocean gyre. The

Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Regional Climate: Focus on Northern and Tropical African Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Fuyao; Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael

This study advances the practicality and stability of the traditional multivariate statistical method, generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA), for decomposing the key oceanic drivers of regional atmospheric variability, especially when available data records are short. An advanced stepwise GEFA methodology is introduced, in which unimportant forcings within the forcing matrix are eliminated through stepwise selection. Method validation of stepwise GEFA is performed using the CESM, with a focused application to northern and tropical Africa (NTA). First, a statistical assessment of the atmospheric response to each primary oceanic forcing is carried out by applying stepwise GEFA to a fully coupled controlmore » run. Then, a dynamical assessment of the atmospheric response to individual oceanic forcings is performed through ensemble experiments by imposing sea surface temperature anomalies over focal ocean basins. Finally, to quantify the reliability of stepwise GEFA, the statistical assessment is evaluated against the dynamical assessment in terms of four metrics: the percentage of grid cells with consistent response sign, the spatial correlation of atmospheric response patterns, the area-averaged seasonal cycle of response magnitude, and consistency in associated mechanisms between assessments. In CESM, tropical modes, namely El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the tropical Indian Ocean Basin, tropical Indian Ocean dipole, and tropical Atlantic Niño modes, are the dominant oceanic controls of NTA climate. In complementary studies, stepwise GEFA is validated in terms of isolating terrestrial forcings on the atmosphere, and observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of NTA climate are extracted to establish an observational benchmark for subsequent coupled model evaluation and development of process-based weights for regional climate projections.« less

Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Regional Climate: Focus on Northern and Tropical African Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

DOE PAGES

Wang, Fuyao; Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael; ...

2017-09-27

This study advances the practicality and stability of the traditional multivariate statistical method, generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA), for decomposing the key oceanic drivers of regional atmospheric variability, especially when available data records are short. An advanced stepwise GEFA methodology is introduced, in which unimportant forcings within the forcing matrix are eliminated through stepwise selection. Method validation of stepwise GEFA is performed using the CESM, with a focused application to northern and tropical Africa (NTA). First, a statistical assessment of the atmospheric response to each primary oceanic forcing is carried out by applying stepwise GEFA to a fully coupled controlmore » run. Then, a dynamical assessment of the atmospheric response to individual oceanic forcings is performed through ensemble experiments by imposing sea surface temperature anomalies over focal ocean basins. Finally, to quantify the reliability of stepwise GEFA, the statistical assessment is evaluated against the dynamical assessment in terms of four metrics: the percentage of grid cells with consistent response sign, the spatial correlation of atmospheric response patterns, the area-averaged seasonal cycle of response magnitude, and consistency in associated mechanisms between assessments. In CESM, tropical modes, namely El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the tropical Indian Ocean Basin, tropical Indian Ocean dipole, and tropical Atlantic Niño modes, are the dominant oceanic controls of NTA climate. In complementary studies, stepwise GEFA is validated in terms of isolating terrestrial forcings on the atmosphere, and observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of NTA climate are extracted to establish an observational benchmark for subsequent coupled model evaluation and development of process-based weights for regional climate projections.« less

Effects of dynamic long-period ocean tides on changes in Earth's rotation rate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nam, Y.S.; Dickman, S.R.

1990-05-10

As a generalization of the zonal response coefficient first introduced by Agnew and Farrell (1978), the authors define the zonal response function k of the solid earth-ocean system as the ratio, in the frequency domain, of the tidal change in Earth's rotation rate to the tide-generating potential. Amplitudes and phases of k for the monthly, fortnightly, and 9-day lunar tides are estimated from 2 1/2 years of very long baseline interferometry UTI observations (both 5-day and daily time series), corrected for atmospheric angular momentum effects using NMC wind and pressure series. Using the dynamic ocean tide model of Dickman (1988a,more » 1989a), the authors predict amplitudes and phases of k for an elastic earth-ocean system. The predictions confirm earlier results which found that dynamic effects of the longer-period ocean tides reduce the amplitude of k by about 1%. However, agreement with the observed k is best achieved for all three tides if the predicted tide amplitudes are combined with the much larger satellite-observed ocean tide phases; in these cases the dynamic tidal effects reduce k by up to 8%. Finally, comparison between the observed and predicted amplitudes of k implies that anelastic effects on Earth's rotation at periods less than fortnightly cannot exceed 2%.« less

Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research: Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, A.W.; Ghil, M.; Kravtsov, K.

2011-04-08

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-variable NHMMs to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale seasonal predictions. We have also developed empirical mode reduction (EMR) models for gaining insight into the underlying dynamics in observational data and general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Using coupled O-A ICMs,more » we have identified a new mechanism of interdecadal climate variability, involving the midlatitude oceans mesoscale eddy field and nonlinear, persistent atmospheric response to the oceanic anomalies. A related decadal mode is also identified, associated with the oceans thermohaline circulation. The goal of the continuation was to build on these ICM results and NHMM/EMR model developments and software to strengthen two key pillars of support for the development and application of climate models for climate change projections on time scales of decades to centuries, namely: (a) dynamical and theoretical understanding of decadal-to-interdecadal oscillations and their predictability; and (b) an interface from climate models to applications, in order to inform societal adaptation strategies to climate change at the regional scale, including model calibration, correction, downscaling and, most importantly, assessment and interpretation of spread and uncertainties in multi-model ensembles. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes. Each of these project components is elaborated on below, followed by a list of publications resulting from the grant.« less

Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research. Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravtsov, S.; Robertson, Andrew W.; Ghil, Michael

2011-04-08

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-variable NHMMs to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale seasonal predictions. We have also developed empirical mode reduction (EMR) models for gaining insight into the underlying dynamics in observational data and general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Using coupled O-A ICMs,more » we have identified a new mechanism of interdecadal climate variability, involving the midlatitude oceans mesoscale eddy field and nonlinear, persistent atmospheric response to the oceanic anomalies. A related decadal mode is also identified, associated with the oceans thermohaline circulation. The goal of the continuation was to build on these ICM results and NHMM/EMR model developments and software to strengthen two key pillars of support for the development and application of climate models for climate change projections on time scales of decades to centuries, namely: (a) dynamical and theoretical understanding of decadal-to-interdecadal oscillations and their predictability; and (b) an interface from climate models to applications, in order to inform societal adaptation strategies to climate change at the regional scale, including model calibration, correction, downscaling and, most importantly, assessment and interpretation of spread and uncertainties in multi-model ensembles. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes. Each of these project components is elaborated on below, followed by a list of publications resulting from the grant.« less

Framework of distributed coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Yuanqiao; Huang, Liwen; Deng, Jian; Zhang, Jinfeng; Wang, Sisi; Wang, Lijun

2006-05-01

In order to research the interactions between the atmosphere and ocean as well as their important role in the intensive weather systems of coastal areas, and to improve the forecasting ability of the hazardous weather processes of coastal areas, a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system has been developed. The agent-based environment framework for linking models allows flexible and dynamic information exchange between models. For the purpose of flexibility, portability and scalability, the framework of the whole system takes a multi-layer architecture that includes a user interface layer, computational layer and service-enabling layer. The numerical experiment presented in this paper demonstrates the performance of the distributed coupled modeling system.

Monitoring abnormal bio-optical and physical properties in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnone, Robert; Jones, Brooke

2017-05-01

The dynamic bio-optical and physical ocean properties within the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) have been identified by the Ocean Weather Laboratory. Ocean properties from VIIRS satellite (Chlorophyll and Bio-Optics and SST) and ocean-circulation models (currents, SST and salinity) were used to identify regions of dynamic changing properties. The degree of environmental change is defined by the dynamic anomaly of bio-optical and physical environmental properties (DAP). A Mississippi River plume event (Aug 2015) that extended to Key West was used to demonstrate the anomaly products. Locations where normal and abnormal ocean properties occur determine ecological and physical hotspots in the GoM, which can be used for adaptive sampling of ocean processes. Methods are described to characterize the weekly abnormal environmental properties using differences with a previous baseline 8 week mean with a 2 week lag. The intensity of anomaly is quantified using levels of standard deviation of the baseline and can be used to recognize ocean events and provide decision support for adaptive sampling. The similarities of the locations of different environmental property anomalies suggest interaction between the bio-optical and physical properties. A coral bleaching event at the Flower Garden Banks Marine Protected Area is represented by the salinity anomaly. Results identify ocean regions for sampling to reduce data gaps and improve monitoring of bio-optical and physical properties.

Research on strategy marine noise map based on i4ocean platform: Constructing flow and key approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Baoxiang; Chen, Ge; Han, Yong

2016-02-01

Noise level in a marine environment has raised extensive concern in the scientific community. The research is carried out on i4Ocean platform following the process of ocean noise model integrating, noise data extracting, processing, visualizing, and interpreting, ocean noise map constructing and publishing. For the convenience of numerical computation, based on the characteristics of ocean noise field, a hybrid model related to spatial locations is suggested in the propagation model. The normal mode method K/I model is used for far field and ray method CANARY model is used for near field. Visualizing marine ambient noise data is critical to understanding and predicting marine noise for relevant decision making. Marine noise map can be constructed on virtual ocean scene. The systematic marine noise visualization framework includes preprocessing, coordinate transformation interpolation, and rendering. The simulation of ocean noise depends on realistic surface. Then the dynamic water simulation gird was improved with GPU fusion to achieve seamless combination with the visualization result of ocean noise. At the same time, the profile and spherical visualization include space, and time dimensionality were also provided for the vertical field characteristics of ocean ambient noise. Finally, marine noise map can be published with grid pre-processing and multistage cache technology to better serve the public.

Spin-Up and Tuning of the Global Carbon Cycle Model Inside the GISS ModelE2 GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aleinov, Igor; Kiang, Nancy Y.; Romanou, Anastasia

2015-01-01

Planetary carbon cycle involves multiple phenomena, acting at variety of temporal and spacial scales. The typical times range from minutes for leaf stomata physiology to centuries for passive soil carbon pools and deep ocean layers. So, finding a satisfactory equilibrium state becomes a challenging and computationally expensive task. Here we present the spin-up processes for different configurations of the GISS Carbon Cycle model from the model forced with MODIS observed Leaf Area Index (LAI) and prescribed ocean to the prognostic LAI and to the model fully coupled to the dynamic ocean and ocean biology. We investigate the time it takes the model to reach the equilibrium and discuss the ways to speed up this process. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS ModelE2) is currently equipped with all major algorithms necessary for the simulation of the Global Carbon Cycle. The terrestrial part is presented by Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM), which includes leaf biophysics, prognostic phenology and soil biogeochemistry module (based on Carnegie-Ames-Stanford model). The ocean part is based on the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM). The transport of atmospheric CO2 is performed by the atmospheric part of ModelE2, which employs quadratic upstream algorithm for this purpose.

Tropical cloud feedbacks and natural variability of climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, R. L.; Del Genio, A. D.

1994-01-01

Simulations of natural variability by two general circulation models (GCMs) are examined. One GCM is a sector model, allowing relatively rapid integration without simplification of the model physics, which would potentially exclude mechanisms of variability. Two mechanisms are found in which tropical surface temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) vary on interannual and longer timescales. Both are related to changes in cloud cover that modulate SST through the surface radiative flux. Over the equatorial ocean, SST and surface temperature vary on an interannual timescale, which is determined by the magnitude of the associated cloud cover anomalies. Over the subtropical ocean, variations in low cloud cover drive SST variations. In the sector model, the variability has no preferred timescale, but instead is characterized by a 'red' spectrum with increasing power at longer periods. In the terrestrial GCM, SST variability associated with low cloud anomalies has a decadal timescale and is the dominant form of global temperature variability. Both GCMs are coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, where dynamical heat transports are prescribed, thus filtering out El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and thermohaline circulation variability. The occurrence of variability in the absence of dynamical ocean feedbacks suggests that climatic variability on long timescales can arise from atmospheric processes alone.

Quasi-Geostrophic Diagnosis of Mixed-Layer Dynamics Embedded in a Mesoscale Turbulent Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavanne, C. P.; Klein, P.

2016-02-01

A new quasi-geostrophic model has been developed to diagnose the three-dimensional circulation, including the vertical velocity, in the upper ocean from high-resolution observations of sea surface height and buoyancy. The formulation for the adiabatic component departs from the classical surface quasi-geostrophic framework considered before since it takes into account the stratification within the surface mixed-layer that is usually much weaker than that in the ocean interior. To achieve this, the model approximates the ocean with two constant-stratification layers : a finite-thickness surface layer (or the mixed-layer) and an infinitely-deep interior layer. It is shown that the leading-order adiabatic circulation is entirely determined if both the surface streamfunction and buoyancy anomalies are considered. The surface layer further includes a diabatic dynamical contribution. Parameterization of diabatic vertical velocities is based on their restoring impacts of the thermal-wind balance that is perturbed by turbulent vertical mixing of momentum and buoyancy. The model skill in reproducing the three-dimensional circulation in the upper ocean from surface data is checked against the output of a high-resolution primitive-equation numerical simulation. Correlation between simulated and diagnosed vertical velocities are significantly improved in the mixed-layer for the new model compared to the classical surface quasi-geostrophic model, reaching 0.9 near the surface.

Effects of eustatic sea-level change, ocean dynamics, and nutrient utilization on atmospheric pCO2 and seawater composition over the last 130 000 years: a model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallmann, K.; Schneider, B.; Sarnthein, M.

2016-02-01

We have developed and employed an Earth system model to explore the forcings of atmospheric pCO2 change and the chemical and isotopic evolution of seawater over the last glacial cycle. Concentrations of dissolved phosphorus (DP), reactive nitrogen, molecular oxygen, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA), 13C-DIC, and 14C-DIC were calculated for 24 ocean boxes. The bi-directional water fluxes between these model boxes were derived from a 3-D circulation field of the modern ocean (Opa 8.2, NEMO) and tuned such that tracer distributions calculated by the box model were consistent with observational data from the modern ocean. To model the last 130 kyr, we employed records of past changes in sea-level, ocean circulation, and dust deposition. According to the model, about half of the glacial pCO2 drawdown may be attributed to marine regressions. The glacial sea-level low-stands implied steepened ocean margins, a reduced burial of particulate organic carbon, phosphorus, and neritic carbonate at the margin seafloor, a decline in benthic denitrification, and enhanced weathering of emerged shelf sediments. In turn, low-stands led to a distinct rise in the standing stocks of DIC, TA, and nutrients in the global ocean, promoted the glacial sequestration of atmospheric CO2 in the ocean, and added 13C- and 14C-depleted DIC to the ocean as recorded in benthic foraminifera signals. The other half of the glacial drop in pCO2 was linked to inferred shoaling of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and more efficient utilization of nutrients in the Southern Ocean. The diminished ventilation of deep water in the glacial Atlantic and Southern Ocean led to significant 14C depletions with respect to the atmosphere. According to our model, the deglacial rapid and stepwise rise in atmospheric pCO2 was induced by upwelling both in the Southern Ocean and subarctic North Pacific and promoted by a drop in nutrient utilization in the Southern Ocean. The deglacial sea-level rise led to a gradual decline in nutrient, DIC, and TA stocks, a slow change due to the large size and extended residence times of dissolved chemical species in the ocean. Thus, the rapid deglacial rise in pCO2 can be explained by fast changes in ocean dynamics and nutrient utilization whereas the gradual pCO2 rise over the Holocene may be linked to the slow drop in nutrient and TA stocks that continued to promote an ongoing CO2 transfer from the ocean into the atmosphere.

Observationally-based Metrics of Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemical Variables are Essential for Evaluating Earth System Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, J. L.; Sarmiento, J. L.

2017-12-01

The Southern Ocean is central to the climate's response to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases as it ventilates a large fraction of the global ocean volume. Global coupled climate models and earth system models, however, vary widely in their simulations of the Southern Ocean and its role in, and response to, the ongoing anthropogenic forcing. Due to its complex water-mass structure and dynamics, Southern Ocean carbon and heat uptake depend on a combination of winds, eddies, mixing, buoyancy fluxes and topography. Understanding how the ocean carries heat and carbon into its interior and how the observed wind changes are affecting this uptake is essential to accurately projecting transient climate sensitivity. Observationally-based metrics are critical for discerning processes and mechanisms, and for validating and comparing climate models. As the community shifts toward Earth system models with explicit carbon simulations, more direct observations of important biogeochemical parameters, like those obtained from the biogeochemically-sensored floats that are part of the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project, are essential. One goal of future observing systems should be to create observationally-based benchmarks that will lead to reducing uncertainties in climate projections, and especially uncertainties related to oceanic heat and carbon uptake.

An ocean dynamical thermostat—dominant in observations, absent in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2016-12-01

The pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is coupled to the Walker circulation, necessitating an understanding of how this pattern will change in response to anthropogenic radiative forcing. State-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) overwhelmingly project a decrease in the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient over the coming century. This decrease in the zonal SST gradient is a response of the ocean to a weakening Walker circulation in the CMIP5 models, a consequence of the mass and energy balances of the hydrologic cycle identified by Held and Soden (2006). CMIP5 models, however, are not able to reproduce the observed increase in the zonal SST gradient between 1900-2013 C.E., which we argue to be robust using advanced statistical techniques and new observational datasets. While the observed increase in the zonal SST gradient is suggestive of the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism of Clement et al. (1996), a strengthening Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) also contributes to eastern equatorial Pacific cooling. Importantly, the strengthening EUC is a response of the ocean to a seasonal weakening of the Walker circulation and thus can reconcile disparate observations of changes to the atmosphere and ocean in the equatorial Pacific. CMIP5 models do not capture the magnitude of this response of the EUC to anthropogenic radiative forcing potentially because of biases in the sensitivity of the EUC to changes in zonal wind stress, like the weakening Walker circulation. Consequently, they project a continuation of the opposite to what has been observed in the real world, with potentially serious consequences for projected climate impacts that are influenced by the tropical Pacific.

Workshop on the Physics and Chemistry of Magma Oceans from 1 Bar to 4 Mbar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agee, Carl B. (Editor); Longhi, John (Editor)

1992-01-01

Evidence for the existence of magma oceans is discussed in great detail, and among the many new items introduced were high-pressure phase equilibrium experiments, calculations of depth of impact-produced melting, models incorporating crystal growth rates with degree of crystallinity and convection, and models of hard turbulent convection. It was agreed that before we can point to some present-day observable parameters and confidently establish the existence of magma oceans, we must learn much more about their phase equilibria and solidification dynamics.

Numerical Simulation of Salinity and Dissolved Oxygen at Perdido Bay and Adjacent Coastal Ocean

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC), a numerical estuarine and coastal ocean circulation hydrodynamic model, was used to simulate the distribution of the salinity, temperature, nutrients and dissolved oxygen (DO) in Perdido Bay and adjacent Gulf of Mexico. External forcing fa...

Cohesive and mixed sediment in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS v3.6) implemented in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System (COAWST r1234)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherwood, Christopher R.; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; Harris, Courtney K.; Rinehimer, J. Paul; Verney, Romaric; Ferré, Bénédicte

2018-05-01

We describe and demonstrate algorithms for treating cohesive and mixed sediment that have been added to the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS version 3.6), as implemented in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System (COAWST Subversion repository revision 1234). These include the following: floc dynamics (aggregation and disaggregation in the water column); changes in floc characteristics in the seabed; erosion and deposition of cohesive and mixed (combination of cohesive and non-cohesive) sediment; and biodiffusive mixing of bed sediment. These routines supplement existing non-cohesive sediment modules, thereby increasing our ability to model fine-grained and mixed-sediment environments. Additionally, we describe changes to the sediment bed layering scheme that improve the fidelity of the modeled stratigraphic record. Finally, we provide examples of these modules implemented in idealized test cases and a realistic application.

Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice-ocean model: 1. Model description and behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D. N.; Little, C. M.; Sergienko, O. V.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Hallberg, R.; Oppenheimer, M.

2012-06-01

Antarctic ice shelves interact closely with the ocean cavities beneath them, with ice shelf geometry influencing ocean cavity circulation, and heat from the ocean driving changes in the ice shelves, as well as the grounded ice streams that feed them. We present a new coupled model of an ice stream-ice shelf-ocean system that is used to study this interaction. The model is capable of representing a moving grounding line and dynamically responding ocean circulation within the ice shelf cavity. Idealized experiments designed to investigate the response of the coupled system to instantaneous increases in ocean temperature show ice-ocean system responses on multiple timescales. Melt rates and ice shelf basal slopes near the grounding line adjust in 1-2 years, and downstream advection of the resulting ice shelf thinning takes place on decadal timescales. Retreat of the grounding line and adjustment of grounded ice takes place on a much longer timescale, and the system takes several centuries to reach a new steady state. During this slow retreat, and in the absence of either an upward-or downward-sloping bed or long-term trends in ocean heat content, the ice shelf and melt rates maintain a characteristic pattern relative to the grounding line.

Transient sensitivities of sea ice export through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago inferred from a coupled ocean/sea-ice adjoint model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimbach, P.; Losch, M.; Menemenlis, D.; Campin, J.; Hill, C.

2008-12-01

The sensitivity of sea-ice export through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), measured in terms of its solid freshwater export through Lancaster Sound, to changes in various elements of the ocean and sea-ice state, and to elements of the atmospheric forcing fields through time and space is assessed by means of a coupled ocean/sea-ice adjoint model. The adjoint model furnishes full spatial sensitivity maps (also known as Lagrange multipliers) of the export metric to a variety of model variables at any chosen point in time, providing the unique capability to quantify major drivers of sea-ice export variability. The underlying model is the MIT ocean general circulation model (MITgcm), which is coupled to a Hibler-type dynamic/thermodynamic sea-ice model. The configuration is based on the Arctic face of the ECCO3 high-resolution cubed-sphere model, but coarsened to 36-km horizontal grid spacing. The adjoint of the coupled system has been derived by means of automatic differentiation using the software tool TAF. Finite perturbation simulations are performed to check the information provided by the adjoint. The sea-ice model's performance in the presence of narrow straits is assessed with different sea-ice lateral boundary conditions. The adjoint sensitivity clearly exposes the role of the model trajectory and the transient nature of the problem. The complex interplay between forcing, dynamics, and boundary condition is demonstrated in the comparison between the different calculations. The study is a step towards fully coupled adjoint-based ocean/sea-ice state estimation at basin to global scales as part of the ECCO efforts.

Calibration of sea ice dynamic parameters in an ocean-sea ice model using an ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massonnet, F.; Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T.; Counillon, F.

2014-07-01

The choice of parameter values is crucial in the course of sea ice model development, since parameters largely affect the modeled mean sea ice state. Manual tuning of parameters will soon become impractical, as sea ice models will likely include more parameters to calibrate, leading to an exponential increase of the number of possible combinations to test. Objective and automatic methods for parameter calibration are thus progressively called on to replace the traditional heuristic, "trial-and-error" recipes. Here a method for calibration of parameters based on the ensemble Kalman filter is implemented, tested and validated in the ocean-sea ice model NEMO-LIM3. Three dynamic parameters are calibrated: the ice strength parameter P*, the ocean-sea ice drag parameter Cw, and the atmosphere-sea ice drag parameter Ca. In twin, perfect-model experiments, the default parameter values are retrieved within 1 year of simulation. Using 2007-2012 real sea ice drift data, the calibration of the ice strength parameter P* and the oceanic drag parameter Cw improves clearly the Arctic sea ice drift properties. It is found that the estimation of the atmospheric drag Ca is not necessary if P* and Cw are already estimated. The large reduction in the sea ice speed bias with calibrated parameters comes with a slight overestimation of the winter sea ice areal export through Fram Strait and a slight improvement in the sea ice thickness distribution. Overall, the estimation of parameters with the ensemble Kalman filter represents an encouraging alternative to manual tuning for ocean-sea ice models.

Sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean gas hydrate to climate changes in the period of 1948-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malakhova, Valentina V.; Golubeva, Elena N.; Iakshina, Dina F.

2017-11-01

The objective of the present study is to analyze the interactions between a methane hydrates stability zone and the ocean temperature variations and to define the hydrate sensitivity to the contemporary warming in the Arctic Ocean. To obtain the spatial-temporary variability of the ocean bottom temperature we employ the ICMMG regional Arctic-North Atlantic ocean model that has been developed in the Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics. With the ice-ocean model the Arctic bottom water temperatures were analyzed. The resulting warming ocean bottom water is spatially inhomogeneous, with a strong impact by the Atlantic inflow on shallow regions of 200-500 m depth. Results of the mathematical modeling of the dynamics of methane hydrate stability zone in the Arctic Ocean sediment are reported. We find that the reduction of the methane hydrate stability zone occurs in the Arctic Ocean between 250 and 400 m water depths within the upper 100 m of sediment in the area influenced by the Atlantic inflow. We have identified the areas of the Arctic Ocean where an increase in methane release is probable to occur at the present time.

Optimizing dynamic downscaling in one-way nesting using a regional ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Van Sy; Hwang, Jin Hwan; Ku, Hyeyun

2016-10-01

Dynamical downscaling with nested regional oceanographic models has been demonstrated to be an effective approach for both operationally forecasted sea weather on regional scales and projections of future climate change and its impact on the ocean. However, when nesting procedures are carried out in dynamic downscaling from a larger-scale model or set of observations to a smaller scale, errors are unavoidable due to the differences in grid sizes and updating intervals. The present work assesses the impact of errors produced by nesting procedures on the downscaled results from Ocean Regional Circulation Models (ORCMs). Errors are identified and evaluated based on their sources and characteristics by employing the Big-Brother Experiment (BBE). The BBE uses the same model to produce both nesting and nested simulations; so it addresses those error sources separately (i.e., without combining the contributions of errors from different sources). Here, we focus on discussing errors resulting from the spatial grids' differences, the updating times and the domain sizes. After the BBE was separately run for diverse cases, a Taylor diagram was used to analyze the results and recommend an optimal combination of grid size, updating period and domain sizes. Finally, suggested setups for the downscaling were evaluated by examining the spatial correlations of variables and the relative magnitudes of variances between the nested model and the original data.

Evaluating statistical consistency in the ocean model component of the Community Earth System Model (pyCECT v2.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Allison H.; Hu, Yong; Hammerling, Dorit M.; Tseng, Yu-heng; Xu, Haiying; Huang, Xiaomeng; Bryan, Frank O.; Yang, Guangwen

2016-07-01

The Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the ocean model component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), is widely used in climate research. Most current work in CESM-POP focuses on improving the model's efficiency or accuracy, such as improving numerical methods, advancing parameterization, porting to new architectures, or increasing parallelism. Since ocean dynamics are chaotic in nature, achieving bit-for-bit (BFB) identical results in ocean solutions cannot be guaranteed for even tiny code modifications, and determining whether modifications are admissible (i.e., statistically consistent with the original results) is non-trivial. In recent work, an ensemble-based statistical approach was shown to work well for software verification (i.e., quality assurance) on atmospheric model data. The general idea of the ensemble-based statistical consistency testing is to use a qualitative measurement of the variability of the ensemble of simulations as a metric with which to compare future simulations and make a determination of statistical distinguishability. The capability to determine consistency without BFB results boosts model confidence and provides the flexibility needed, for example, for more aggressive code optimizations and the use of heterogeneous execution environments. Since ocean and atmosphere models have differing characteristics in term of dynamics, spatial variability, and timescales, we present a new statistical method to evaluate ocean model simulation data that requires the evaluation of ensemble means and deviations in a spatial manner. In particular, the statistical distribution from an ensemble of CESM-POP simulations is used to determine the standard score of any new model solution at each grid point. Then the percentage of points that have scores greater than a specified threshold indicates whether the new model simulation is statistically distinguishable from the ensemble simulations. Both ensemble size and composition are important. Our experiments indicate that the new POP ensemble consistency test (POP-ECT) tool is capable of distinguishing cases that should be statistically consistent with the ensemble and those that should not, as well as providing a simple, subjective and systematic way to detect errors in CESM-POP due to the hardware or software stack, positively contributing to quality assurance for the CESM-POP code.

Grain-Size Dynamics Beneath Mid-Ocean Ridges: Implications for Permeability and Melt Extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, A. J.; Katz, R. F.; Behn, M. D.

2014-12-01

The permeability structure of the sub-ridge mantle plays an important role in how melt is focused and extracted at mid-ocean ridges. Permeability is controlled by porosity and the grain size of the solid mantle matrix, which is in turn controlled by the deformation conditions. To date, models of grain size evolution and mantle deformation have not been coupled to determine the influence of spatial variations in grain-size on the permeability structure at mid-ocean ridges. Rather, current models typically assume a constant grain size for the whole domain [1]. Here, we use 2-D numerical models to evaluate the influence of grain-size variability on the permeability structure beneath a mid-ocean ridge and use these results to speculate on the consequences for melt focusing and extraction. We construct a two-dimensional, single phase model for the steady-state grain size beneath a mid-ocean ridge. The model employs a composite rheology of diffusion creep, dislocation creep, dislocation accommodated grain boundary sliding, and a brittle stress limiter. Grain size is calculated using the "wattmeter" model of Austin and Evans [2]. We investigate the sensitivity of the model to global variations in grain growth exponent, potential temperature, spreading-rate, and grain boundary sliding parameters [3,4]. Our model predicts that permeability varies by two orders of magnitude due to the spatial variability of grain size within the expected melt region of a mid-ocean ridge. The predicted permeability structure suggests grain size may promote focusing of melt towards the ridge axis. Furthermore, the calculated grain size structure should focus melt from a greater depth than models that exclude grain-size variability. Future work will involve evaluating this hypothesis by implementing grain-size dynamics within a two-phase mid-ocean ridge model. The developments of such a model will be discussed. References: [1] R. F. Katz, Journal of Petrology, volume 49, issue 12, page 2099, 2008. [2] N. J. Austin and B. Evans, Geology, 35:354, 2007. [3] G. Hirth and D. Kohlstedt, In Inside the Subduction Factory, volume 138 of AGU Geophysical Monograph, 2003. [4] L. N. Hansen et al., JGR (Solid Earth), 116:B08201, 2011.

High-resolution coupled ice sheet-ocean modeling using the POPSICLES model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, E. G.; Martin, D. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Price, S. F.; Collins, W.

2014-12-01

It is expected that a primary driver of future change of the Antarctic ice sheet will be changes in submarine melting driven by incursions of warm ocean water into sub-ice shelf cavities. Correctly modeling this response on a continental scale will require high-resolution modeling of the coupled ice-ocean system. We describe the computational and modeling challenges in our simulations of the full Southern Ocean coupled to a continental-scale Antarctic ice sheet model at unprecedented spatial resolutions (0.1 degree for the ocean model and adaptive mesh refinement down to 500m in the ice sheet model). The POPSICLES model couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), with the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012) using a synchronous offline-coupling scheme. Part of the PISCEES SciDAC project and built on the Chombo framework, BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement to fully resolve dynamically-important regions like grounding lines and employs a momentum balance similar to the vertically-integrated formulation of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009). Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests like MISMIP3D (Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). For the POPSICLES Antarctic-Southern Ocean simulations, ice sheet and ocean models communicate at one-month coupling intervals.

Simulating PACE Global Ocean Radiances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

2017-01-01

The NASA PACE mission is a hyper-spectral radiometer planned for launch in the next decade. It is intended to provide new information on ocean biogeochemical constituents by parsing the details of high resolution spectral absorption and scattering. It is the first of its kind for global applications and as such, poses challenges for design and operation. To support pre-launch mission development and assess on-orbit capabilities, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has developed a dynamic simulation of global water-leaving radiances, using an ocean model containing multiple ocean phytoplankton groups, particulate detritus, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), and chromophoric dissolved organic carbon (CDOC) along with optical absorption and scattering processes at 1 nm spectral resolution. The purpose here is to assess the skill of the dynamic model and derived global radiances. Global bias, uncertainty, and correlation are derived using available modern satellite radiances at moderate spectral resolution. Total chlorophyll, PIC, and the absorption coefficient of CDOC (aCDOC), are simultaneously assimilated to improve the fidelity of the optical constituent fields. A 5-year simulation showed statistically significant (P < 0.05) comparisons of chlorophyll (r = 0.869), PIC (r = 0.868), and a CDOC (r =0.890) with satellite data. Additionally, diatoms (r = 0.890), cyanobacteria (r = 0.732), and coccolithophores (r = 0.716) were significantly correlated with in situ data. Global assimilated distributions of optical constituents were coupled with a radiative transfer model (Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model, OASIM) to estimate normalized water-leaving radiances at 1 nm for the spectral range 250-800 nm. These unassimilated radiances were within 0.074 mW/sq cm/micron/sr of MODIS-Aqua radiances at 412, 443, 488, 531, 547, and 667 nm. This difference represented a bias of 10.4% (model low). A mean correlation of 0.706 (P < 0.05) was found with global distributions of MODIS radiances. These results suggest skill in the global assimilated model and resulting radiances. The reported error characterization suggests that the global dynamical simulation can support some aspects of mission design and analysis. For example, the high spectral resolution of the simulation supports investigations of band selection. The global nature of the radiance representations supports investigations of satellite observing scenarios. Global radiances at bands not available in current and past missions support investigations of mission capability. PACE, ocean color, water-leaving radiances, biogeochemical model, radiative transfer model

High Performance Computing Technologies for Modeling the Dynamics and Dispersion of Ice Chunks in the Arctic Ocean

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-23

SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: Hybrid finite element / finite volume based CaMEL shallow water flow solvers have been successfully extended to study wave...effects on ice floes in a simplified 10 sq-km ocean domain. Our solver combines the merits of both the finite element and finite volume methods and...ES) U.S. Army Research Office P.O. Box 12211 Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2211 sea ice dynamics, shallow water, finite element , finite volume

ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT AND DRIFT, MODELED AS A VISCOUS FLUID.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ling, Chi-Hai; Parkinson, Claire L.

1986-01-01

A dynamic/thermodynamic numerical model of sea ice has been used to calculate the yearly cycle of sea ice thicknesses, concentrations, and velocities in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. The model combines the formulations of two previous models, taking the thermodynamics and momentum equations from the model of Parkinson and Washington and adding the constitutive equation and equation of state from the model of Ling, Rasmussen, and Campbell. Simulated annually averaged ice drift vectors compare well with observed ice drift from the Arctic Ocean Buoy Program.

Garnet Signatures in Geophysical and Geochemical Observations: Insights into the Thermo-Petrological Structure of Oceanic Upper Mantle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grose, C. J.; Afonso, J. C.

2013-12-01

We have developed new physically comprehensive thermal plate models of the oceanic lithosphere which incorporate temperature- and pressure-dependent heat transport properties and thermal expansivity, melting beneath ridges, hydrothermal circulation near ridge axes, and insulating oceanic crust. These models provide good fits to global databases of seafloor topography and heat flow, and seismic evidence of thermal structure near ridge axes. We couple these thermal plate models with thermodynamic models to predict the petrology of oceanic lithosphere. Geoid height predictions from our models suggest that there is a strong anomaly in geoid slope (over age) above ~25 Ma lithosphere due to the topography of garnet-field mantle. A similar anomaly is also present in geoid data over fracture zones. In addition, we show that a new assessment of a large database of ocean island basalt Sm/Yb systematics indicates that there is an unmistakable step-like increase in Sm/Yb values around 15-20 Ma, indicating the presence of garnet. To explain this feature, we have attempted to couple our thermo-petrological models of oceanic upper mantle with an open system, non-modal, dynamic melting model with diffusion kinetics to investigate trace element partitioning in an ascending mantle column.

Efficient Flowline Simulations of Ice Shelf-Ocean Interactions: Sensitivity Studies with a Fully Coupled Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, Ryan Thomas; Holland, David; Parizek, Byron R.; Alley, Richard B.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Jenkins, Adrian

2013-01-01

Thermodynamic flowline and plume models for the ice shelf-ocean system simplify the ice and ocean dynamics sufficiently to allow extensive exploration of parameters affecting ice-sheet stability while including key physical processes. Comparison between geophysically and laboratory-based treatments of ice-ocean interface thermodynamics shows reasonable agreement between calculated melt rates, except where steep basal slopes and relatively high ocean temperatures are present. Results are especially sensitive to the poorly known drag coefficient, highlighting the need for additional field experiments to constrain its value. These experiments also suggest that if the ice-ocean interface near the grounding line is steeper than some threshold, further steepening of the slope may drive higher entrainment that limits buoyancy, slowing the plume and reducing melting; if confirmed, this will provide a stabilizing feedback on ice sheets under some circumstances.

The Pattern and Dynamics of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Upper Ocean

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

Atlantic . Figure 4a shows that the center of meridional overturning circulation occurs at a level of about one kilometer. Circulation is weak at...maintenance of the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. 5. Global Simulation The most exciting experiment would be to fully model the...mechanisms responsible for the strength and maintenance of the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean are not

An analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006

Treesearch

A.D. McGuire; D.J. Hayes; D.W. Kicklighter; M. Manizza; Q. Zhuang; M. Chen; M.J. Follows; K.R. Gurney; J.W. McClelland; J.M. Melillo; B.J. Peterson; R.G. Prinn

2010-01-01

This study used several model-based tools to analyze the dynamics of the Arctic Basin between 1997 and 2006 as a linked system of land-ocean-atmosphere C exchange. The analysis estimates that terrestrial areas of the Arctic Basin lost 62.9 Tg C yr-1 and that the Arctic Ocean gained 94.1 Tg C yr-1. Arctic lands and oceans...

Gas exchange in the ice zone: the role of small waves and big animals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loose, B.; Takahashi, A.; Bigdeli, A.

2016-12-01

The balance of air-sea gas exchange and net biological carbon fixation determine the transport and transformation of carbon dioxide and methane in the ocean. Air-sea gas exchange is mostly driven by upper ocean physics, but biology can also play a role. In the open ocean, gas exchange increases proportionate to the square of wind speed. When sea ice is present, this dependence breaks down in part because breaking waves and air bubble entrainment are damped out by interactions between sea ice and the wave field. At the same time, sea ice motions, formation, melt, and even sea ice-associated organisms can act to introduce turbulence and air bubbles into the upper ocean, thereby enhancing air-sea gas exchange. We take advantage of the knowledge advances of upper ocean physics including bubble dynamics to formulate a model for air-sea gas exchange in the sea ice zone. Here, we use the model to examine the role of small-scale waves and diving animals that trap air for insulation, including penguins, seals and polar bears. We compare these processes to existing parameterizations of wave and bubble dynamics in the open ocean, to observe how sea ice both mitigates and locally enhances air-sea gas transfer.

Modelling sea ice dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murawski, Jens; Kleine, Eckhard

2017-04-01

Sea ice remains one of the frontiers of ocean modelling and is of vital importance for the correct forecasts of the northern oceans. At large scale, it is commonly considered a continuous medium whose dynamics is modelled in terms of continuum mechanics. Its specifics are a matter of constitutive behaviour which may be characterised as rigid-plastic. The new developed sea ice dynamic module bases on general principles and follows a systematic approach to the problem. Both drift field and stress field are modelled by a variational property. Rigidity is treated by Lagrangian relaxation. Thus one is led to a sensible numerical method. Modelling fast ice remains to be a challenge. It is understood that ridging and the formation of grounded ice keels plays a role in the process. The ice dynamic model includes a parameterisation of the stress associated with grounded ice keels. Shear against the grounded bottom contact might lead to plastic deformation and the loss of integrity. The numerical scheme involves a potentially large system of linear equations which is solved by pre-conditioned iteration. The entire algorithm consists of several components which result from decomposing the problem. The algorithm has been implemented and tested in practice.

Spectral decomposition of internal gravity wave sea surface height in global models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savage, Anna C.; Arbic, Brian K.; Alford, Matthew H.; Ansong, Joseph K.; Farrar, J. Thomas; Menemenlis, Dimitris; O'Rourke, Amanda K.; Richman, James G.; Shriver, Jay F.; Voet, Gunnar; Wallcraft, Alan J.; Zamudio, Luis

2017-10-01

Two global ocean models ranging in horizontal resolution from 1/12° to 1/48° are used to study the space and time scales of sea surface height (SSH) signals associated with internal gravity waves (IGWs). Frequency-horizontal wavenumber SSH spectral densities are computed over seven regions of the world ocean from two simulations of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and three simulations of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). High wavenumber, high-frequency SSH variance follows the predicted IGW linear dispersion curves. The realism of high-frequency motions (>0.87 cpd) in the models is tested through comparison of the frequency spectral density of dynamic height variance computed from the highest-resolution runs of each model (1/25° HYCOM and 1/48° MITgcm) with dynamic height variance frequency spectral density computed from nine in situ profiling instruments. These high-frequency motions are of particular interest because of their contributions to the small-scale SSH variability that will be observed on a global scale in the upcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite altimetry mission. The variance at supertidal frequencies can be comparable to the tidal and low-frequency variance for high wavenumbers (length scales smaller than ˜50 km), especially in the higher-resolution simulations. In the highest-resolution simulations, the high-frequency variance can be greater than the low-frequency variance at these scales.

Year-Round Pack Ice in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica: Response and Sensitivity to Atmospheric and Oceanic Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geiger, Cathleen A.; Ackley, Stephen F.; Hibler, William D., III

1997-01-01

Using a dynamic-thermodynamic numerical sea-ice model, external oceanic and atmospheric forcings on sea ice in the Weddell Sea are examined to identify physical processes associated with the seasonal cycle of pack ice, and to identify further the parameters that coupled models need to consider in predicting the response of the pack ice to climate and ocean-circulation changes. In agreement with earlier studies, the primary influence on the winter ice-edge maximum extent is air temperature. Ocean heat flux has more impact on the minimum-ice-edge extent and in reducing pack-ice thickness, especially in the eastern-Weddell Sea. Low relative humidity enhances ice growth in thin ice and open-water regions, producing a more realistic ice edge along the coastal areas of the western-Weddell Sea where dry continental air has an impact. The modeled extent of the Weddell summer pack is equally sensitive to ocean heat flux and atmospheric relative humidity variations with the more dynamic responses being from the atmosphere. Since the atmospheric regime in the eastern Weddell is dominated by marine intrusions from lower latitudes, with high humidity already, it is unlikely that either the moisture trans- port could be further raised or that it could be significantly lowered because of its distance from the continent (the lower humidity source). Ocean heat-transport variability is shown to lead to overall ice thinning in the model response and is a known feature of the actual system, as evidenced by the occurrence of the Weddell Polynya in the mid 1970s.

Investigating role of ice-ocean interaction on glacier dynamic: Results from numerical modeling applied to Petermann Glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nick, F. M.; van der Veen, C. J.; Vieli, A.; Pattyn, F.; Hubbard, A.; Box, J. E.

2010-12-01

Calving of icebergs and bottom melting from ice shelves accounts for roughly half the ice transferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the surrounding ocean, and virtually all of the ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Petermann Glacier (north Greenland) with its ~17 km wide and ~ 60 km long floating ice-shelf is experiencing high rates of bottom melting. The recent partial disintegration of its shelf (in August 2010) presents a natural experiment to investigate the dynamic response of the ice sheet to its shelf retreat. We apply a numerical ice flow model using a physically-based calving criterion based on crevasse depth to investigate the contribution of processes such as shelf disintegration, bottom melting, sea ice or sikkusak disintegration and surface run off to the mass balance of Petermann Glacier and assess its stability. Our modeling study provides insights into the role of ice-ocean interaction, and on response of Petermann Glacier to its recent massive ice loss.

A Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Scheme for the Regional Ocean Modeling System: Implementation and Basic Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Zhijin; Chao, Yi; McWilliams, James C.; Ide, Kayo

2008-01-01

A three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme for the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), named ROMS3DVAR, has been described in the work of Li et al. (2008). In this paper, ROMS3DVAR is applied to the central California coastal region, an area characterized by inhomogeneity and anisotropy, as well as by dynamically unbalanced flows. A method for estimating the model error variances from limited observations is presented, and the construction of the inhomogeneous and anisotropic error correlations based on the Kronecker product is demonstrated. A set of single observation experiments illustrates the inhomogeneous and anisotropic error correlations and weak dynamic constraints used. Results are presented from the assimilation of data gathered during the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network (AOSN) experiment during August 2003. The results show that ROMS3DVAR is capable of reproducing complex flows associated with upwelling and relaxation, as well as the rapid transitions between them. Some difficulties encountered during the experiment are also discussed.

Present-day Circum-Antarctic Simulations using the POPSICLES Coupled Ice Sheet-Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asay-Davis, X.; Martin, D. F.; Price, S. F.; Maltrud, M. E.; Collins, W.

2014-12-01

We present POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period 1990 to 2010. Simulations are performed at 0.1o (~5 km) ocean resolution and with adaptive ice-sheet model resolution as fine as 500 m. We compare time-averaged melt rates below a number of major ice shelves with those reported by Rignot et al. (2013) as well as other recent studies. We also present seasonal variability and decadal trends in submarine melting from several Antarctic regions. Finally, we explore the influence on basal melting and system dynamics resulting from two different choices of climate forcing: a "normal-year" climatology and the CORE v. 2 forcing data (Large and Yeager 2008).POPSICLES couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), and the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement and a 1st-order accurate momentum balance similar to the L1L2 model of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009) to accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests (MISMIP-3D; Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014).A companion presentation, "Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to ocean forcing using the POPSICLES coupled ice sheet-ocean model" in session C024 covers the ice-sheet response to these melt rates in the coupled simulation. The figure shows eddy activity in the vertically integrated (barotropic) velocity nearly six years into a POPSICLES simulation of the Antarctic region.

Linkages between atmospheric blocking, sea ice export through Fram Strait and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

PubMed Central

Ionita, M.; Scholz, P.; Lohmann, G.; Dima, M.; Prange, M.

2016-01-01

As a key persistent component of the atmospheric dynamics, the North Atlantic blocking activity has been linked to extreme climatic phenomena in the European sector. It has also been linked to Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability, but its potential links to rapid oceanic changes have not been investigated. Using a global ocean-sea ice model forced with atmospheric reanalysis data, here it is shown that the 1962–1966 period of enhanced blocking activity over Greenland resulted in anomalous sea ice accumulation in the Arctic and ended with a sea ice flush from the Arctic into the North Atlantic Ocean through Fram Strait. This event induced a significant decrease of Labrador Sea water surface salinity and an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the 1970s. These results have implications for the prediction of rapid AMOC changes and indicate that an important part of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics at mid- and high latitudes requires a proper representation of the Fram Strait sea ice transport and of the synoptic scale variability such as atmospheric blocking, which is a challenge for current coupled climate models. PMID:27619955

Linkages between atmospheric blocking, sea ice export through Fram Strait and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

PubMed

Ionita, M; Scholz, P; Lohmann, G; Dima, M; Prange, M

2016-09-13

As a key persistent component of the atmospheric dynamics, the North Atlantic blocking activity has been linked to extreme climatic phenomena in the European sector. It has also been linked to Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability, but its potential links to rapid oceanic changes have not been investigated. Using a global ocean-sea ice model forced with atmospheric reanalysis data, here it is shown that the 1962-1966 period of enhanced blocking activity over Greenland resulted in anomalous sea ice accumulation in the Arctic and ended with a sea ice flush from the Arctic into the North Atlantic Ocean through Fram Strait. This event induced a significant decrease of Labrador Sea water surface salinity and an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the 1970s. These results have implications for the prediction of rapid AMOC changes and indicate that an important part of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics at mid- and high latitudes requires a proper representation of the Fram Strait sea ice transport and of the synoptic scale variability such as atmospheric blocking, which is a challenge for current coupled climate models.

Reconstruction of 137Cs activity in the ocean following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsumune, Daisuke; Aoyama, Michio; Tsubono, Takaki; Tateda, Yutaka; Misumi, Kazuhiro; Hayami, Hiroshi; Toyoda, Yasuhiro; Maeda, Yoshiaki; Yoshida, Yoshikatsu; Uematsu, Mitsuo

2014-05-01

A series of accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant following the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011 resulted in the release of radioactive materials to the ocean by two major pathways, direct release from the accident site and atmospheric deposition. We reconstructed spatiotemporal variability of 137Cs activity in the ocean by the comparison model simulations and observed data. We employed a regional scale and the North Pacific scale oceanic dispersion models, an atmospheric transport model, a sediment transport model, a dynamic biological compartment model for marine biota and river runoff model to investigate the oceanic contamination. Direct releases of 137Cs were estimated for more than 2 years after the accident by comparing simulated results and observed activities very close to the site. The estimated total amounts of directly released 137Cs was 3.6±0.7 PBq. Directly release rate of 137Cs decreased exponentially with time by the end of December 2012 and then, was almost constant. The daily release rate of 137Cs was estimated to be 3.0 x 1010 Bq day-1 by the end of September 2013. The activity of directly released 137Cs was detectable only in the coastal zone after December 2012. Simulated 137Cs activities attributable to direct release were in good agreement with observed activities, a result that implies the estimated direct release rate was reasonable, while simulated 137Cs activities attributable to atmospheric deposition were low compared to measured activities. The rate of atmospheric deposition onto the ocean was underestimated because of a lack of measurements of dose rate and air activity of 137Cs over the ocean when atmospheric deposition rates were being estimated. Observed 137Cs activities attributable to atmospheric deposition in the ocean helped to improve the accuracy of simulated atmospheric deposition rates. Although there is no observed data of 137Cs activity in the ocean from 11 to 21 March 2011, observed data of marine biota should reflect the history of 137Cs activity in this early period. The comparisons between simulated 137Cs activity of marine biota by a dynamic biological compartment and observed data also suggest that simulated 137Cs activity attributable to atmospheric deposition was underestimated in this early period. In addition, river runoff model simulations suggest that the river flux of 137Cs to the ocean was effective to the 137Cs activity in the ocean in this early period. The sediment transport model simulations suggests that the inventory of 137Cs in sediment was less than 10

Cryosphere and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hibler, William D., III; Thorndike, Alan S.

1992-01-01

This chapter will discuss two main issues related to the cryosphere and climate. One is the effect of sea ice and salinity gradients on ocean circulation, and in particular the possible role of sea ice transport on the ocean conveyer belt. The other is the effect of the cryosphere on climate, and in particular in high-latitude warming under increased CO2. In understanding the role of the cryosphere in both cases, it is useful to elucidate two types of toy sea ice models. Neither of these represents reality, but both are useful for illustrating the archetypal features of sea ice that control much of its large-scale behavior. The first model is a simple slab thermodynamic sea ice model as presented by Thorndike. In this model there are no dynamical effects and the thickness of ice is determined by surface heat budget and oceanic heat flux considerations, with the thickness of the ice critically affecting the effective conductivity whereby heat is transferred from the bottom ice boundary to the upper ice boundary. In this model all of the sea ice characteristics are controlled by the vertical heat fluxes from the atmosphere and ocean into the ice. The thickness is controlled by the ice's becoming an effective insulator as it thickens, thus reducing conductive heat loss to the atmosphere. A second model emphasizes the effects of dynamics. It considers the ice pack to be a collection of floes moving in response to synoptic wind fields and ocean currents. These motions create semipermanent leads (open areas) over which ice can grow rapidly.

Design of the MISMIP+, ISOMIP+, and MISOMIP ice-sheet, ocean, and coupled ice sheet-ocean intercomparison projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asay-Davis, Xylar; Cornford, Stephen; Martin, Daniel; Gudmundsson, Hilmar; Holland, David; Holland, Denise

2015-04-01

The MISMIP and MISMIP3D marine ice sheet model intercomparison exercises have become popular benchmarks, and several modeling groups have used them to show how their models compare to both analytical results and other models. Similarly, the ISOMIP (Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project) experiments have acted as a proving ground for ocean models with sub-ice-shelf cavities.As coupled ice sheet-ocean models become available, an updated set of benchmark experiments is needed. To this end, we propose sequel experiments, MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+, with an end goal of coupling the two in a third intercomparison exercise, MISOMIP (the Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project). Like MISMIP3D, the MISMIP+ experiments take place in an idealized, three-dimensional setting and compare full 3D (Stokes) and reduced, hydrostatic models. Unlike the earlier exercises, the primary focus will be the response of models to sub-shelf melting. The chosen configuration features an ice shelf that experiences substantial lateral shear and buttresses the upstream ice, and so is well suited to melting experiments. Differences between the steady states of each model are minor compared to the response to melt-rate perturbations, reflecting typical real-world applications where parameters are chosen so that the initial states of all models tend to match observations. The three ISOMIP+ experiments have been designed to to make use of the same bedrock topography as MISMIP+ and using ice-shelf geometries from MISMIP+ results produced by the BISICLES ice-sheet model. The first two experiments use static ice-shelf geometries to simulate the evolution of ocean dynamics and resulting melt rates to a quasi-steady state when far-field forcing changes in either from cold to warm or from warm to cold states. The third experiment prescribes 200 years of dynamic ice-shelf geometry (with both retreating and advancing ice) based on a BISICLES simulation along with similar flips between warm and cold states in the far-field ocean forcing. The MISOMIP experiment combines the MISMIP+ experiments with the third ISOMIP+ experiment. Changes in far-field ocean forcing lead to a rapid (over ~1-2 years) increase in sub-ice-shelf melting, which is allowed to drive ice-shelf retreat for ~100 years. Then, the far-field forcing is switched to a cold state, leading to a rapid decrease in melting and a subsequent advance over ~100 years. To illustrate, we present results from BISICLES and POP2x experiments for each of the three intercomparison exercises.

Numerical modeling of Farallon Plate flat-slab subduction: Influence of lithosphere structure and rheology on slab dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Currie, C. A.

2017-12-01

The subducted Farallon plate is believed to have evolved to a flat geometry underneath North America plate during Late Cretaceous, triggering Laramide deformation within the continental interior. However, the mechanism that caused the oceanic slab to flatten and the factors that control the flat-slab depth remain uncertain. In this work, we use 2D thermal-mechanical models using the SOPALE code to study the subduction dynamics from 90 Ma to 50 Ma. During this period, an oceanic plateau (Shatsky Conjugate) is inferred to have subducted beneath western North America and interacted with the continental lithosphere, including areas of thicker lithosphere such as the Colorado Plateau and Wyoming Craton. Based on seismic tomography and plate reconstruction data sets, we built a set of models to examine the influence of the structure and rheology of the oceanic and continental plates on slab dynamics. Models include a 600 km wide oceanic plateau consisting of 18 km thick crust and a 36 km thick underlying harzburgite layer, and we ran a series of model experiments to test different continental thicknesses (80 km, 120 km, & 180 km) and continental mantle lithosphere strengths (approximating conditions from wet olivine to dry olivine). Consistent with earlier studies, we find that creation of a long flat slab requires a buoyant oceanic plateau (i.e., non-eclogitized crust) and trenchward motion of the continent. In addition, our models demonstrate the upper plate has an important control on slab dynamics. A flat slab requires either a thin continent or, if the continent is thick, its mantle lithosphere must be relatively weak so that it can be displaced by the flattening slab. The depth of the flat slab is mainly controlled by two factors: (1) the continental thickness and (2) the strength of the continental mantle lithosphere. For the same initial lithosphere thickness (120 km), a shallower flat slab ( 90 km depth) occurs for the weakest mantle lithosphere ( wet olivine) compared to 120 km depth for strong ( dry) mantle lithosphere because the flat slab removes the lowermost weak lithosphere. Moreover, an even deeper slab ( 130 km) can be found underneath the weakest but thicker continental lithosphere (180 km). Future models will focus on how the flat slab may induce hydration and deformation for the overriding continental plate.

Determining the Ocean's Role on the Variable Gravity Field and Earth Rotation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ponte, Rui M.

2000-01-01

Our three year investigation, carried out over the period 18-19 Nov 2000, focused on the study of the variability in ocean angular momentum and mass signals and their relation to the Earth's variable rotation and gravity field. This final report includes a summary description of our work and a list of related publications and presentations. One thrust of the investigation was to determine and interpret the changes in the ocean mass field, as they impact on the variable gravity field and Earth rotation. In this regard, the seasonal cycle in local vertically-integrated ocean mass was analyzed using two ocean models of different complexity: (1) the simple constant-density, coarse resolution model of Ponte; and (2) the fully stratified, eddy-resolving model of Semtner and Chervin. The dynamics and thermodynamics of the seasonal variability in ocean mass were examined in detail, as well as the methodologies to calculate those changes under different model formulations. Another thrust of the investigation was to examine signals in ocean angular momentum (OAM) in relation to Earth rotation changes. A number of efforts were undertaken in this regard. Sensitivity of the oceanic excitation to different assumptions about how the ocean is forced and how it dissipates its energy was explored.

Dynamics of a Snowball Earth ocean.

PubMed

Ashkenazy, Yosef; Gildor, Hezi; Losch, Martin; Macdonald, Francis A; Schrag, Daniel P; Tziperman, Eli

2013-03-07

Geological evidence suggests that marine ice extended to the Equator at least twice during the Neoproterozoic era (about 750 to 635 million years ago), inspiring the Snowball Earth hypothesis that the Earth was globally ice-covered. In a possible Snowball Earth climate, ocean circulation and mixing processes would have set the melting and freezing rates that determine ice thickness, would have influenced the survival of photosynthetic life, and may provide important constraints for the interpretation of geochemical and sedimentological observations. Here we show that in a Snowball Earth, the ocean would have been well mixed and characterized by a dynamic circulation, with vigorous equatorial meridional overturning circulation, zonal equatorial jets, a well developed eddy field, strong coastal upwelling and convective mixing. This is in contrast to the sluggish ocean often expected in a Snowball Earth scenario owing to the insulation of the ocean from atmospheric forcing by the thick ice cover. As a result of vigorous convective mixing, the ocean temperature, salinity and density were either uniform in the vertical direction or weakly stratified in a few locations. Our results are based on a model that couples ice flow and ocean circulation, and is driven by a weak geothermal heat flux under a global ice cover about a kilometre thick. Compared with the modern ocean, the Snowball Earth ocean had far larger vertical mixing rates, and comparable horizontal mixing by ocean eddies. The strong circulation and coastal upwelling resulted in melting rates near continents as much as ten times larger than previously estimated. Although we cannot resolve the debate over the existence of global ice cover, we discuss the implications for the nutrient supply of photosynthetic activity and for banded iron formations. Our insights and constraints on ocean dynamics may help resolve the Snowball Earth controversy when combined with future geochemical and geological observations.

Analyses of a 426-Day Record of Seafloor Gravity and Pressure Time Series in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosat, S.; Escot, B.; Hinderer, J.; Boy, J.-P.

2017-04-01

Continuous gravity observations of ocean and solid tides are usually done with land-based gravimeters. In this study, we analyze a 426-day record of time-varying gravity acquired by an ocean-bottom Scintrex spring gravimeter between August 2005 and November 2006 at the Troll A site located in the North Sea at a depth of 303 m. Sea-bottom pressure changes were also recorded in parallel with a Paroscientific quartz pressure sensor. From these data, we show a comparison of the noise level of the seafloor gravimeter with respect to two standard land-based relative gravimeters: a Scintrex CG5 and a GWR Superconducting Gravimeter that were recording at the J9 gravimetric observatory of Strasbourg (France). We also compare the analyzed gravity records with the predicted solid and oceanic tides. The oceanic tides recorded by the seafloor barometer are also analyzed and compared to the predicted ones using FES2014b ocean model. Observed diurnal and semi-diurnal components are in good agreement with FES2014b predictions. Smallest constituents reflect some differences that may be attributed to non-linearity occurring at the Troll A site. Using the barotropic TUGO-m dynamic model of sea-level response to ECMWF atmospheric pressure and winds forcing, we show a good agreement with the detided ocean-bottom pressure residuals. About 4 hPa of standard deviation of remaining sea-bottom pressure are, however, not explained by the TUGO-m dynamic model.

The Role of Air-sea Coupling in the Response of Climate Extremes to Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahajan, S.

2017-12-01

Air-sea interactions dominate the climate of surrounding regions and thus also modulate the climate response to local and remote aerosol forcings. To clearly isolate the role of air-sea coupling in the climate response to aerosols, we conduct experiments with a full complexity atmosphere model that is coupled to a series of ocean models progressively increasing in complexity. The ocean models range from a data ocean model with prescribed SSTs, to a slab ocean model that only allows thermodynamic interactions, to a full dynamic ocean model. In a preliminary study, we have conducted single forcing experiments with black carbon aerosols in an atmosphere GCM coupled to a data ocean model and a slab ocean model. We find that while black carbon aerosols can intensify mean and extreme summer monsoonal precipitation over the Indian sub-continent, air-sea coupling can dramatically modulate this response. Black carbon aerosols in the vicinity of the Arabian Sea result in an increase of sea surface temperatures there in the slab ocean model, which intensify the low-level Somali Jet. The associated increase in moisture transport into Western India enhances the mean as well as extreme precipitation. In prescribed SST experiments, where SSTs are not allowed to respond BC aerosols, the response is muted. We will present results from a hierarchy of GCM simulations that investigate the role of air-sea coupling in the climate response to aerosols in more detail.

Development and validation of a regional coupled forecasting system for S2S forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, R.; Subramanian, A. C.; Hoteit, I.; Miller, A. J.; Ralph, M.; Cornuelle, B. D.

2017-12-01

Accurate and efficient forecasting of oceanic and atmospheric circulation is essential for a wide variety of high-impact societal needs, including: weather extremes; environmental protection and coastal management; management of fisheries, marine conservation; water resources; and renewable energy. Effective forecasting relies on high model fidelity and accurate initialization of the models with observed state of the ocean-atmosphere-land coupled system. A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the MITGCM ocean model coupled using the ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) coupling framework is developed to resolve mesoscale air-sea feedbacks. The regional coupled model allows oceanic mixed layer heat and momentum to interact with the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics at the mesoscale and submesoscale spatiotemporal regimes, thus leading to feedbacks which are otherwise not resolved in coarse resolution global coupled forecasting systems or regional uncoupled forecasting systems. The model is tested in two scenarios in the mesoscale eddy rich Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean region as well as mesoscale eddies and fronts of the California Current System. Recent studies show evidence for air-sea interactions involving the oceanic mesoscale in these two regions which can enhance predictability on sub seasonal timescale. We will present results from this newly developed regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model for forecasts over the Red Sea region as well as the California Current region. The forecasts will be validated against insitu observations in the region as well as reanalysis fields.

Evolution of a terrestrial magma ocean: Thermodynamics, kinetics, rheology, convection, differentiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solomatov, V. S.; Stevenson, D. J.

1992-01-01

The evolution of an initially totally molten magma ocean is constrained on the basis of analysis of various physical problems in the magma ocean. First of all an equilibrium thermodynamics of the magma ocean is developed in the melting temperature range. The equilibrium thermodynamical parameters are found as functions only of temperature and pressure and are used in the subsequent models of kinetics and convection. Kinematic processes determine the crystal size and also determine a non-equilibrium thermodynamics of the system. Rheology controls all dynamical regimes of the magma ocean. The thermal convection models for different rheological laws are developed for both the laminar convection and for turbulent convection in the case of equilibrium thermodynamics of the multiphase system. The evolution is estimated on the basis of all the above analysis.

Numerical Modelling of Freshwater Inputs in the Shelf Area of the Ofanto River (Southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verri, G.; Pinardi, N.; Tribbia, J. J.; Gochis, D.; Bryan, F.; Tseng, Y. H.; Navarra, A.; Coppini, G.

2016-02-01

The aim of this study is to understand and to assess the effects of river freshwater release on the ocean circulation and dynamics focusing on the shelf area near estuaries. A sensitivity study to different modelling approaches, which point to the representation of the dynamics of the river inflow, are presented. The modeling strategy we chose consists of an integrated modeling chain including the atmosphere, the hydrology/hydraulics and the estuarine dynamics in order to force our regional ocean model at the Ofanto outlet in a reliable way. This meteo-hydrological modeling chain allows us to take into account all the physical processes involved in the local water cycle of the Ofanto catchment such as the rainfall, the land surface infiltration/evaporation, the partitioning of total runoff into surface and subsurface runoff and the channel streamflow. In order to achieve our goal, we chose the Ofanto river catchment and its estuary as case study. The Ofanto river is a torrential river flowing across the Southern Italy and ending in the Adriatic Sea; its annual averaged discharge is low (15 m3s-1 following Raicich, 1996) but may significantly increase when heavy rain events occur. In details our regional ocean model is a finite difference numerical model based on NEMO code (Madec, G., 2008) and implemented in the Central Mediterranean Sea with 2km as horizontal resolution. The meteo-hydrological modeling chain consists of: 1) the WRF-ARW model (Skamarock et al., 2008) including NOAH-MP as Land Surface Submodel,; 2) WRF-HYDRO model (Gochis D., et al., 2013) representing the hydrology/hydraulics component with 200m as horizontal resolution, simulating the streamflow discharge along the Ofanto river network.; 3) finally an estuarine box model (Garvine et al., 2006) is inserted downstream of WRF-Hydro and upstream of the regional ocean model. A set of sensitivity experiments has been performed aiming to evaluate the capability of the regional ocean model to decribe the Ofanto river plume by providing hindcast discharge and salinity from the estuary model at the river mouth with different methods. The time window of the simulations covers the first three months of year 2011, since 4 heavy rain events affected the Ofanto catchment in this period.

Fit to predict? Eco-informatics for predicting the catchability of a pelagic fish in near real time.

PubMed

Scales, Kylie L; Hazen, Elliott L; Maxwell, Sara M; Dewar, Heidi; Kohin, Suzanne; Jacox, Michael G; Edwards, Christopher A; Briscoe, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Lewison, Rebecca L; Bograd, Steven J

2017-12-01

The ocean is a dynamic environment inhabited by a diverse array of highly migratory species, many of which are under direct exploitation in targeted fisheries. The timescales of variability in the marine realm coupled with the extreme mobility of ocean-wandering species such as tuna and billfish complicates fisheries management. Developing eco-informatics solutions that allow for near real-time prediction of the distributions of highly mobile marine species is an important step towards the maturation of dynamic ocean management and ecological forecasting. Using 25 yr (1990-2014) of NOAA fisheries' observer data from the California drift gillnet fishery, we model relative probability of occurrence (presence-absence) and catchability (total catch per gillnet set) of broadbill swordfish Xiphias gladius in the California Current System. Using freely available environmental data sets and open source software, we explore the physical drivers of regional swordfish distribution. Comparing models built upon remotely sensed data sets with those built upon a data-assimilative configuration of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS), we explore trade-offs in model construction, and address how physical data can affect predictive performance and operational capacity. Swordfish catchability was found to be highest in deeper waters (>1,500 m) with surface temperatures in the 14-20°C range, isothermal layer depth (ILD) of 20-40 m, positive sea surface height (SSH) anomalies, and during the new moon (<20% lunar illumination). We observed a greater influence of mesoscale variability (SSH, wind speed, isothermal layer depth, eddy kinetic energy) in driving swordfish catchability (total catch) than was evident in predicting the relative probability of presence (presence-absence), confirming the utility of generating spatiotemporally dynamic predictions. Data-assimilative ROMS circumvent the limitations of satellite remote sensing in providing physical data fields for species distribution models (e.g., cloud cover, variable resolution, subsurface data), and facilitate broad-scale prediction of dynamic species distributions in near real time. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Lithosperic rheology controls on oceanic spreading patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerya, T.

2012-04-01

Mid-ocean ridges sectioned by transform faults represent one of the most prominent surface expressions of terrestrial plate tectonics. A fundamental long standing problem of plate tectonics is how and why ridge-transform spreading patterns are formed and maintained. On the one hand, geometrical correspondence between mid-ocean ridges and respective rifted margins apparently suggests that many oceanic transform faults are inherited structures that persisted throughout the entire history of oceanic spreading. On the other hand, data from incipient oceanic spreading regions show that transform faults are not directly inherited from transverse rift structures and start to develop as or after oceanic spreading nucleate. Based on self-consistent 3D thermomechanical numerical model of oceanic spreading we demonstrate that only limited range of oceanic lithosphere rheologies can reproduce natural spreading patterns. In particular, spontaneous formation and long-term stability of orthogonal ridge-transform spreading pattern requires visco-brittle/plastic rheology of plates with strong dynamic weakening of spontaneously forming faults. Our, numerical models of incipient oceanic spreading demonstrate that one or several oceanic transform faults can form gradually within broad non-transform accommodation zones connecting initially offset spreading centers. Orientation of transform faults and spreading centers changes exponentially with time as the result of new oceanic crust growth. The resulting orthogonal ridge-transform system is established within few millions of years after the beginning of oceanic spreading. By its fundamental physical origin, this system is a crustal growth pattern governed by space accommodation and not a plate breakup pattern governed by stress distribution. It is demonstrated that the characteristic extension-parallel orientation of oceanic transform faults can be obtained from space accommodation criteria as a steady state orientation of a strike-slip fault sustaining in between simultaneously growing offset crustal segments. Numerical models also suggest that transform faults can develop at single straight ridge as the result of dynamical instability of constructive plate boundaries caused by weakening of forming brittle/plastic fractures. Boundary instability from asymmetric plate growth can spontaneously start in alternate directions along successive ridge sections; the resultant curved ridges become transform faults within a few million years. Offsets along the transform faults change continuously with time by asymmetric plate growth and discontinuously by ridge jumps. Degree of asymmetric plate accretion increases with increasing degree of brittle/plastic weakening. It is also strongly dependent on the brittle/plastic yielding criterion and is notably reduced in models with pressure-dependent brittle/plastic plate strength compared to models with pressure-independent strength.

A tutorial on dynamical systems concepts applied to Lagrangian transport in oceanic flows defined as finite time data sets: Theoretical and computational issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mancho, Ana M.; Small, Des; Wiggins, Stephen

2006-12-01

In the past 15 years the framework and ideas from dynamical systems theory have been applied to a variety of transport and mixing problems in oceanic flows. The motivation for this approach comes directly from advances in observational capabilities in oceanography (e.g., drifter deployments, remote sensing capabilities, satellite imagery, etc.) which reveal space-time structures that are highly suggestive of the structures one visualizes in the global, geometrical study of dynamical systems theory. In this tutorial, we motivate this approach by showing the relationship between fluid transport in two-dimensional time-periodic incompressible flows and the geometrical structures that exist for two-dimensional area-preserving maps, such as hyperbolic periodic orbits, their stable and unstable manifolds and KAM (Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser) tori. This serves to set the stage for the attempt to “transfer” this approach to more realistic flows modelling the ocean. However, in order to accomplish this several difficulties must be overcome. The first difficulty that confronts us that any attempt to carry out a dynamical systems approach to transport requires us to obtain the appropriate “dynamical system”, which is the velocity field describing the fluid flow. In general, adequate model velocity fields are obtained by numerical solution of appropriate partial differential equations describing the dynamical evolution of the velocity field. Numerical solution of the partial differential equations can only be done for a finite time interval, and since the ocean is generally not time-periodic, this leads to a new type of dynamical system: a finite-time, aperiodically time-dependent velocity field defined as a data set on a space-time grid. The global, geometrical analysis of transport in such dynamical systems requires both new concepts and new analytical and computational tools, as well as the necessity to discard some of the standard ideas and results from dynamical systems theory. The purpose of this tutorial is to describe these new concepts and analytical tools first using simple dynamical systems where quantities can be computed exactly. We then discuss their computational implications and implementation in the context of a model geophysical flow: a turbulent wind-driven double-gyre in the quasigeostrophic approximation.

Assessing the Role of Seafloor Weathering in Global Geochemical Cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahat, N. X.; Abbot, D. S.; Archer, D. E.

2015-12-01

Low-temperature alteration of the basaltic upper oceanic crust, known as seafloor weathering, has been proposed as a mechanism for long-term climate regulation similar to the continental climate-weathering negative feedback. Despite this potentially far-reaching impact of seafloor weathering on habitable planet evolution, existing modeling frameworks do not include the full scope of alteration reactions or recent findings of convective flow dynamics. We present a coupled fluid dynamic and geochemical numerical model of low-temperature, off-axis hydrothermal activity. This model is designed to explore the the seafloor weathering flux of carbon to the oceanic crust and its responsiveness to climate fluctuations. The model's ability to reproduce the seafloor weathering environment is evaluated by constructing numerical simulations for comparison with two low-temperature hydrothermal systems: A transect east of the Juan de Fuca Ridge and the southern Costa Rica Rift flank. We explore the sensitivity of carbon uptake by seafloor weathering on climate and geology by varying deep ocean temperature, seawater dissolved inorganic carbon, continental weathering inputs, and basaltic host rock in a suite of numerical experiments.

Modelling rogue waves through exact dynamical lump soliton controlled by ocean currents.

PubMed

Kundu, Anjan; Mukherjee, Abhik; Naskar, Tapan

2014-04-08

Rogue waves are extraordinarily high and steep isolated waves, which appear suddenly in a calm sea and disappear equally fast. However, though the rogue waves are localized surface waves, their theoretical models and experimental observations are available mostly in one dimension, with the majority of them admitting only limited and fixed amplitude and modular inclination of the wave. We propose two dimensions, exactly solvable nonlinear Schrödinger (NLS) equation derivable from the basic hydrodynamic equations and endowed with integrable structures. The proposed two-dimensional equation exhibits modulation instability and frequency correction induced by the nonlinear effect, with a directional preference, all of which can be determined through precise analytic result. The two-dimensional NLS equation allows also an exact lump soliton which can model a full-grown surface rogue wave with adjustable height and modular inclination. The lump soliton under the influence of an ocean current appears and disappears preceded by a hole state, with its dynamics controlled by the current term. These desirable properties make our exact model promising for describing ocean rogue waves.

Modelling rogue waves through exact dynamical lump soliton controlled by ocean currents

PubMed Central

Kundu, Anjan; Mukherjee, Abhik; Naskar, Tapan

2014-01-01

Rogue waves are extraordinarily high and steep isolated waves, which appear suddenly in a calm sea and disappear equally fast. However, though the rogue waves are localized surface waves, their theoretical models and experimental observations are available mostly in one dimension, with the majority of them admitting only limited and fixed amplitude and modular inclination of the wave. We propose two dimensions, exactly solvable nonlinear Schrödinger (NLS) equation derivable from the basic hydrodynamic equations and endowed with integrable structures. The proposed two-dimensional equation exhibits modulation instability and frequency correction induced by the nonlinear effect, with a directional preference, all of which can be determined through precise analytic result. The two-dimensional NLS equation allows also an exact lump soliton which can model a full-grown surface rogue wave with adjustable height and modular inclination. The lump soliton under the influence of an ocean current appears and disappears preceded by a hole state, with its dynamics controlled by the current term. These desirable properties make our exact model promising for describing ocean rogue waves. PMID:24711719

Remote sensing of ocean surface currents: a review of what is being observed and what is being assimilated

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isern-Fontanet, Jordi; Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim; Turiel, Antonio; García-Ladona, Emilio

2017-10-01

Ocean currents play a key role in Earth's climate - they impact almost any process taking place in the ocean and are of major importance for navigation and human activities at sea. Nevertheless, their observation and forecasting are still difficult. First, no observing system is able to provide direct measurements of global ocean currents on synoptic scales. Consequently, it has been necessary to use sea surface height and sea surface temperature measurements and refer to dynamical frameworks to derive the velocity field. Second, the assimilation of the velocity field into numerical models of ocean circulation is difficult mainly due to lack of data. Recent experiments that assimilate coastal-based radar data have shown that ocean currents will contribute to increasing the forecast skill of surface currents, but require application in multidata assimilation approaches to better identify the thermohaline structure of the ocean. In this paper we review the current knowledge in these fields and provide a global and systematic view of the technologies to retrieve ocean velocities in the upper ocean and the available approaches to assimilate this information into ocean models.

One-Dimensional Coupled Ecosystem-Carbon Flux Model for the Simulation of Biogeochemical Parameters at Ocean Weather Station P

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Signorini, S.; McClain, C.; Christian, J.; Wong, C. S.

2000-01-01

In this Technical Publication, we describe the model functionality and analyze its application to the seasonal and interannual variations of phytoplankton, nutrients, pCO2 and CO2 concentrations in the eastern subarctic Pacific at Ocean Weather Station P (OWSP, 50 deg. N 145 deg. W). We use a verified one-dimensional ecosystem model, coupled with newly incorporated carbon flux and carbon chemistry components, to simulate 22 years (1958-1980) of pCO2 and CO2 variability at Ocean Weather Station P (OWS P). This relatively long period of simulation verifies and extends the findings of previous studies using an explicit approach for the biological component and realistic coupling with the carbon flux dynamics. The slow currents and the horizontally homogeneous ocean in the subarctic Pacific make OWS P one of the best available candidates for modeling the chemistry of the upper ocean in one dimension. The chlorophyll and ocean currents composite for 1998 illustrates this premise. The chlorophyll concentration map was derived from SeaWiFS data and the currents are from an OGCM simulation (from R. Murtugudde).

Marine Biogeochemistry Under The Influence of Fish And Fisheries: An Ecosystem Modeling Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Disa, Deniz; Akoglu, Ekin; Salihoglu, Baris

2017-04-01

The ocean and the marine ecosystems are important controllers of the global carbon cycle. They play a pivotal role in capturing atmospheric carbon into the ocean body, transforming it into organic carbon through photosynthesis and transporting it to the depths of the ocean. Fish, which has a significant role in the marine food webs, is thought to have a considerable impact on carbon export. More specifically, fish has a control on plankton dynamics as a predator, it provides nutrient to the ecosystem by its metabolic activities and it has the ability of moving actively and transporting materials. Fishing is also expected to impact carbon cycle because it directly changes the fish biomasses. However, how fish impacts the biogeochemistry of marine ecosystems is not studied extensively. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of fish and fisheries on marine biogeochemical processes by setting up an end-to-end model, which simulates lower and higher tropic levels of marine ecosystems simultaneously. For this purpose, a one dimensional biogeochemical model simulating lower tropic level dynamics (e.g. carbon export, nutrient cycles) and an food web model simulating fisheries exploitation and higher tropic level dynamics were online and two-way coupled. Representing the marine ecosystem from one end to the other, the coupled model served as a tool for the analysis of fishing impacts on marine biogeochemical dynamics. Results obtained after incorporation of higher trophic level model changed the plankton compositions and enhanced detritus pools and increased carbon export. Additionally, our model showed that active movement of fish contributed to transport of carbon from surface to the deeper parts of the ocean. Moreover, results after applying different fishing intensities indicated that changes in fisheries exploitation levels directly influence the marine nutrient cycles and hence, the carbon export. Depending on the target and the intensity of fisheries, considerable changes in the biogeochemical responses observed. In conclusion, unlike the models that do not represent the fish explicitly, we demonstrate how marine biogeochemical processes are impacted by the activity of fish assemblages and fisheries exploitation.

Will high-resolution global ocean models benefit coupled predictions on short-range to climate timescales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewitt, Helene T.; Bell, Michael J.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Czaja, Arnaud; Ferreira, David; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hyder, Pat; McClean, Julie L.; New, Adrian L.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2017-12-01

As the importance of the ocean in the weather and climate system is increasingly recognised, operational systems are now moving towards coupled prediction not only for seasonal to climate timescales but also for short-range forecasts. A three-way tension exists between the allocation of computing resources to refine model resolution, the expansion of model complexity/capability, and the increase of ensemble size. Here we review evidence for the benefits of increased ocean resolution in global coupled models, where the ocean component explicitly represents transient mesoscale eddies and narrow boundary currents. We consider lessons learned from forced ocean/sea-ice simulations; from studies concerning the SST resolution required to impact atmospheric simulations; and from coupled predictions. Impacts of the mesoscale ocean in western boundary current regions on the large-scale atmospheric state have been identified. Understanding of air-sea feedback in western boundary currents is modifying our view of the dynamics in these key regions. It remains unclear whether variability associated with open ocean mesoscale eddies is equally important to the large-scale atmospheric state. We include a discussion of what processes can presently be parameterised in coupled models with coarse resolution non-eddying ocean models, and where parameterizations may fall short. We discuss the benefits of resolution and identify gaps in the current literature that leave important questions unanswered.

Exact Solutions for Wind-Driven Coastal Upwelling and Downwelling over Sloping Topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choboter, P.; Duke, D.; Horton, J.; Sinz, P.

2009-12-01

The dynamics of wind-driven coastal upwelling and downwelling are studied using a simplified dynamical model. Exact solutions are examined as a function of time and over a family of sloping topographies. Assumptions in the two-dimensional model include a frictionless ocean interior below the surface Ekman layer, and no alongshore dependence of the variables; however, dependence in the cross-shore and vertical directions is retained. Additionally, density and alongshore momentum are advected by the cross-shore velocity in order to maintain thermal wind. The time-dependent initial-value problem is solved with constant initial stratification and no initial alongshore flow. An alongshore pressure gradient is added to allow the cross-shore flow to be geostrophically balanced far from shore. Previously, this model has been used to study upwelling over flat-bottom and sloping topographies, but the novel feature in this work is the discovery of exact solutions for downwelling. These exact solutions are compared to numerical solutions from a primitive-equation ocean model, based on the Princeton Ocean Model, configured in a similar two-dimensional geometry. Many typical features of the evolution of density and velocity during downwelling are displayed by the analytical model.

Fresh Water Content Variability in the Arctic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa; Proshutinsky, Andrey

2003-01-01

Arctic Ocean model simulations have revealed that the Arctic Ocean has a basin wide oscillation with cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation anomalies (Arctic Ocean Oscillation; AOO) which has a prominent decadal variability. This study explores how the simulated AOO affects the Arctic Ocean stratification and its relationship to the sea ice cover variations. The simulation uses the Princeton Ocean Model coupled to sea ice. The surface forcing is based on NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis and its climatology, of which the latter is used to force the model spin-up phase. Our focus is to investigate the competition between ocean dynamics and ice formation/melt on the Arctic basin-wide fresh water balance. We find that changes in the Atlantic water inflow can explain almost all of the simulated fresh water anomalies in the main Arctic basin. The Atlantic water inflow anomalies are an essential part of AOO, which is the wind driven barotropic response to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The baroclinic response to AO, such as Ekman pumping in the Beaufort Gyre, and ice meldfreeze anomalies in response to AO are less significant considering the whole Arctic fresh water balance.

Effects of Whitecaps on Satellite-Derived Ocean Color

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frouin, Robert

2000-01-01

During the 3.25 years of the project, various aspects of satellite ocean-color remote sensing were investigated, including effect of whitecaps on atmospheric correction, validity of aerosol models, and evaluation of ocean-color products. Algorithms to estimate pigment concentration and photo-synthetically active radiation (PAR) were developed, and studies of geophysical phenomena, such as the 1998 Asian Dust event, were performed. The influence of solar radiation absorption by phytoplankton on mixed layer dynamics, ocean circulation, and climate was also investigated. The project's results and findings are described.

Factors controlling the initiation of Snowball Earth events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.

2012-12-01

During the Neoproterozoic glaciations tropical continents were covered by active glaciers that extended down to sea level. To explain these glaciers, the Snowball Earth hypothesis assumes that oceans were completely sea-ice covered during these glaciation, but there is an ongoing debate whether or not some regions of the tropical oceans remained open. In this talk, I will describe past and ongoing climate modelling activities with the comprehensive coupled climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM that identify and compare factors that control the initiation of Snowball Earth events. I first show that shifting the continents from their present-day location to their Marinoan (635 My BP) low-latitude location increases the planetary albedo, cools the climate, and thereby allows Snowball Earth initiation at higher levels of total solar irradiance and atmospheric CO2. I then present simulations with successively lowered bare sea-ice albedo, disabled sea-ice dynamics, and switched-off ocean heat transport. These simulations show that both lowering the bare sea-ice albedo and disabling sea-ice dynamics increase the critical sea-ice cover in ECHAM5/MPI-OM, but sea-ice dynamics due to strong equatorward sea-ice transport have a much larger influence on the critical CO2. Disabling sea-ice transport allows a state with sea-ice margin at 10 deg latitude by virtue of the Jormungand mechanism. The accumulation of snow on land, in combination with tropical land temperatures below or close to freezing, suggests that tropical land glaciers could easily form in such a state. However, in contrast to aquaplanet simulations without ocean heat transport, there is no sign of a Jormungand hysteresis in the coupled simulations. Ocean heat transport is not responsible for the lack of a Jormungand hysteresis in the coupled simulations. By relating the above findings to previous studies, I will outline promising future avenues of research on the initiation of Snowball Earth events. In particular, an improved understanding and modelling of sea-ice dynamics is needed.ea-ice cover as a function of CO2 for ECHAM5/MPI-OM simulations with high bare sea-ice albedo (black circles), low bare sea-ice albedo (blue squares), low bare sea-ice albedo and disabled sea-ice dynamics (red triangles), and low bare sea-ice albedo, disabled sea-ice dynamics and zero ocean heat transport (green diamonds). All simulations use Marinoan low-latitude continents and a solar constant reduced to 94% of its modern value.

Dynamic ocean-tide effects on Earth's rotation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dickman, S. R.

1993-01-01

This article develops 'broad-band' Liouville equations which are capable of determining the effects on the rotation of the Earth of a periodic excitation even at frequencies as high as semi-diurnal; these equations are then used to predict the rotational effects of altimetric, numerical and 32-constituent spherical harmonic ocean-tide models. The rotational model includes a frequency-dependent decoupled core, the effects of which are especially marked near retrograde diurnal frequencies; and a fully dynamic oceanic response, whose effects appear to be minor despite significant frequency dependence. The model also includes solid-earth effects which are frequency dependent as the result of both anelasticity at long periods and the fluid-core resonance at nearly diurnal periods. The effects of both tidal inertia and relative angular momentum on Earth rotation (polar motion, length of day, 'nutation' and Universal Time) are presented for 32 long- and short-period ocean tides determined as solutions to the author's spherical harmonic tide theory. The lengthening of the Chandler wobble period by the pole tide is also re-computed using the author's full theory. Additionally, using the spherical harmonic theory, tidal currents and their effects on rotation are determined for available numerical and altimetric tide height models. For all models, we find that the effects of tidal currents are at least as important as those of tide height for diurnal and semi-diurnal constituents.

Deep Ocean Warming Assessed from Altimeters, GRACE, 3 In-situ Measurements, and a Non-Boussinesq OGCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Y. Tony; Colberg, Frank

2011-01-01

Observational surveys have shown significant oceanic bottom water warming, but they are too spatially and temporally sporadic to quantify the deep ocean contribution to the present-day sea level rise (SLR). In this study, altimetry sea surface height (SSH), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) ocean mass, and in situ upper ocean (0-700 m) steric height have been assessed for their seasonal variability and trend maps. It is shown that neither the global mean nor the regional trends of altimetry SLR can be explained by the upper ocean steric height plus the GRACE ocean mass. A non-Boussinesq ocean general circulation model (OGCM), allowing the sea level to rise as a direct response to the heat added into the ocean, is then used to diagnose the deep ocean steric height. Constrained by sea surface temperature data and the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiation measurements, the model reproduces the observed upper ocean heat content well. Combining the modeled deep ocean steric height with observational upper ocean data gives the full depth steric height. Adding a GRACE-estimated mass trend, the data-model combination explains not only the altimetry global mean SLR but also its regional trends fairly well. The deep ocean warming is mostly prevalent in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, suggesting a strong relation to the oceanic circulation and dynamics. Its comparison with available bottom water measurements shows reasonably good agreement, indicating that deep ocean warming below 700 m might have contributed 1.1 mm/yr to the global mean SLR or one-third of the altimeter-observed rate of 3.11 +/- 0.6 mm/yr over 1993-2008.

Variation of the subsidence parameters, effective thermal conductivity, and mantle dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, C.; King, S. D.; Vidal, V.; Rabinowicz, M.; Jalobeanu, A.; Yoshida, M.

2015-09-01

The subsidence of young seafloor is generally considered to be a passive phenomenon related to the conductive cooling of the lithosphere after its creation at mid-oceanic ridges. Recent alternative theories suggest that the mantle dynamics plays an important role in the structure and depth of the oceanic lithosphere. However, the link between mantle dynamics and seafloor subsidence has still to be quantitatively assessed. Here we provide a statistical study of the subsidence parameters (subsidence rate and ridge depth) for all the oceans. These parameters are retrieved through two independent methods, the positive outliers method, a classical method used in signal processing, and through the MiFil method. From the subsidence rate, we compute the effective thermal conductivity, keff, which ranges between 1 and 7 W m-1 K-1. We also model the mantle flow pattern from the S40RTS tomography model. The density anomalies derived from S40RTS are used to compute the instantaneous flow in a global 3D spherical geometry. We show that departures from the keff = 3 Wm-1K-1 standard value are systematically related to mantle processes and not to lithospheric structure. Regions characterized by keff > 3 Wm-1K-1 are associated with mantle uplifts (mantle plumes or other local anomalies). Regions characterized by keff < 3 Wm-1K-1 are related to large-scale mantle downwellings such as the Australia-Antarctic Discordance (AAD) or the return flow from the South Pacific Superswell to the East Pacific Rise. This demonstrates that mantle dynamics plays a major role in the shaping of the oceanic seafloor. In particular, the parameters generally considered to quantify the lithosphere structure, such as the thermal conductivity, are not only representative of this structure but also incorporate signals from the mantle convection occurring beneath the lithosphere. The dynamic topography computed from the S40RTS tomography model reproduces the subsidence pattern observed in the bathymetry. Overall we find a good correlation between the subsidence parameters derived from the bathymetry and the dynamic topography. This demonstrates that these parameters are strongly dependent on mantle dynamics.

Towards a suite of test cases and a pycomodo library to assess and improve numerical methods in ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garnier, Valérie; Honnorat, Marc; Benshila, Rachid; Boutet, Martial; Cambon, Gildas; Chanut, Jérome; Couvelard, Xavier; Debreu, Laurent; Ducousso, Nicolas; Duhaut, Thomas; Dumas, Franck; Flavoni, Simona; Gouillon, Flavien; Lathuilière, Cyril; Le Boyer, Arnaud; Le Sommer, Julien; Lyard, Florent; Marsaleix, Patrick; Marchesiello, Patrick; Soufflet, Yves

2016-04-01

The COMODO group (http://www.comodo-ocean.fr) gathers developers of global and limited-area ocean models (NEMO, ROMS_AGRIF, S, MARS, HYCOM, S-TUGO) with the aim to address well-identified numerical issues. In order to evaluate existing models, to improve numerical approaches and methods or concept (such as effective resolution) to assess the behavior of numerical model in complex hydrodynamical regimes and to propose guidelines for the development of future ocean models, a benchmark suite that covers both idealized test cases dedicated to targeted properties of numerical schemes and more complex test case allowing the evaluation of the kernel coherence is proposed. The benchmark suite is built to study separately, then together, the main components of an ocean model : the continuity and momentum equations, the advection-diffusion of the tracers, the vertical coordinate design and the time stepping algorithms. The test cases are chosen for their simplicity of implementation (analytic initial conditions), for their capacity to focus on a (few) scheme or part of the kernel, for the availability of analytical solutions or accurate diagnoses and lastly to simulate a key oceanic processus in a controlled environment. Idealized test cases allow to verify properties of numerical schemes advection-diffusion of tracers, - upwelling, - lock exchange, - baroclinic vortex, - adiabatic motion along bathymetry, and to put into light numerical issues that remain undetected in realistic configurations - trajectory of barotropic vortex, - interaction current - topography. When complexity in the simulated dynamics grows up, - internal wave, - unstable baroclinic jet, the sharing of the same experimental designs by different existing models is useful to get a measure of the model sensitivity to numerical choices (Soufflet et al., 2016). Lastly, test cases help in understanding the submesoscale influence on the dynamics (Couvelard et al., 2015). Such a benchmark suite is an interesting bed to continue research in numerical approaches as well as an efficient tool to maintain any oceanic code and assure the users a stamped model in a certain range of hydrodynamical regimes. Thanks to a common netCDF format, this suite is completed with a python library that encompasses all the tools and metrics used to assess the efficiency of the numerical methods. References - Couvelard X., F. Dumas, V. Garnier, A.L. Ponte, C. Talandier, A.M. Treguier (2015). Mixed layer formation and restratification in presence of mesoscale and submesoscale turbulence. Ocean Modelling, Vol 96-2, p 243-253. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.10.004. - Soufflet Y., P. Marchesiello, F. Lemarié, J. Jouanno, X. Capet, L. Debreu , R. Benshila (2016). On effective resolution in ocean models. Ocean Modelling, in press. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.12.004

A Unified Model of Geostrophic Adjustment and Frontogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, John; Shakespeare, Callum

2013-11-01

Fronts, or regions with strong horizontal density gradients, are ubiquitous and dynamically important features of the ocean and atmosphere. In the ocean, fronts are associated with enhanced air-sea fluxes, turbulence, and biological productivity, while atmospheric fronts are associated with some of the most extreme weather events. Here, we describe a new mathematical framework for describing the formation of fronts, or frontogenesis. This framework unifies two classical problems in geophysical fluid dynamics, geostrophic adjustment and strain-driven frontogenesis, and provides a number of important extensions beyond previous efforts. The model solutions closely match numerical simulations during the early stages of frontogenesis, and provide a means to describe the development of turbulence at mature fronts.

A Markov Environment-dependent Hurricane Intensity Model and Its Comparison with Multiple Dynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, R.; Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.

2017-12-01

A Markov environment-dependent hurricane intensity model (MeHiM) is developed to simulate the climatology of hurricane intensity given the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved discrete states representing respectively storm's slow, moderate, and rapid intensification (and deintensification). Each state is associated with a probability distribution of intensity change. The storm's movement from one state to another, regarded as a Markov chain, is described by a transition probability matrix. The initial state is estimated with a Bayesian approach. All three model components (initial intensity, state transition, and intensity change) are dependent on environmental variables including potential intensity, vertical wind shear, midlevel relative humidity, and ocean mixing characteristics. This dependent Markov model of hurricane intensity shows a significant improvement over previous statistical models (e.g., linear, nonlinear, and finite mixture models) in estimating the distributions of 6-h and 24-h intensity change, lifetime maximum intensity, and landfall intensity, etc. Here we compare MeHiM with various dynamical models, including a global climate model [High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution model (HiFLOR)], a regional hurricane model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model), and a simplified hurricane dynamic model [Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System (CHIPS)] and its newly developed fast simulator. The MeHiM developed based on the reanalysis data is applied to estimate the intensity of simulated storms to compare with the dynamical-model predictions under the current climate. The dependences of hurricanes on the environment under current and future projected climates in the various models will also be compared statistically.

Dynamical Evaluation of Ocean Models using the Gulf Stream as an Example

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

transport for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) as the 3 nonlinear solutions discussed in Section 2. The model boundary is...Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) wind stress climatology and the northward upper ocean flow (14 Sv) of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ... overturning circulation (AMOC) streamfunction with a 5 Sv contour interval from (a) 1/12° Atlantic MICOM, (b) 1/12° Atlantic HYCOM, and (c) 1/12

Influence Of Momentum Excess On The Pattern And Dynamics Of Intermediate-Range Stratified Wakes

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

excess in order to model the fundamental differences between signatures generated by towed and self- propelled bodies in various ocean states. In cases...which can be used on the operational level for developing and improving algorithms for non- acoustic signature prediction and detection. 14. SUBJECT...order to model the fundamental differences between signatures generated by towed and self- propelled bodies in various ocean states. In cases where

Dynamic reusable workflows for ocean science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Signell, Richard; Fernandez, Filipe; Wilcox, Kyle

2016-01-01

Digital catalogs of ocean data have been available for decades, but advances in standardized services and software for catalog search and data access make it now possible to create catalog-driven workflows that automate — end-to-end — data search, analysis and visualization of data from multiple distributed sources. Further, these workflows may be shared, reused and adapted with ease. Here we describe a workflow developed within the US Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) which automates the skill-assessment of water temperature forecasts from multiple ocean forecast models, allowing improved forecast products to be delivered for an open water swim event. A series of Jupyter Notebooks are used to capture and document the end-to-end workflow using a collection of Python tools that facilitate working with standardized catalog and data services. The workflow first searches a catalog of metadata using the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Catalog Service for the Web (CSW), then accesses data service endpoints found in the metadata records using the OGC Sensor Observation Service (SOS) for in situ sensor data and OPeNDAP services for remotely-sensed and model data. Skill metrics are computed and time series comparisons of forecast model and observed data are displayed interactively, leveraging the capabilities of modern web browsers. The resulting workflow not only solves a challenging specific problem, but highlights the benefits of dynamic, reusable workflows in general. These workflows adapt as new data enters the data system, facilitate reproducible science, provide templates from which new scientific workflows can be developed, and encourage data providers to use standardized services. As applied to the ocean swim event, the workflow exposed problems with two of the ocean forecast products which led to improved regional forecasts once errors were corrected. While the example is specific, the approach is general, and we hope to see increased use of dynamic notebooks across the geoscience domains.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of ocean conditions and forage taxa reveal regional structuring of seabird–prey relationships.

PubMed

Santora, Jarrod A; Schroeder, Isaac D; Field, John C; Wells, Brian K; Sydeman, William J

Studies of predator–prey demographic responses and the physical drivers of such relationships are rare, yet essential for predicting future changes in the structure and dynamics of marine ecosystems. Here, we hypothesize that predator–prey relationships vary spatially in association with underlying physical ocean conditions, leading to observable changes in demographic rates, such as reproduction. To test this hypothesis, we quantified spatio-temporal variability in hydrographic conditions, krill, and forage fish to model predator (seabird) demographic responses over 18 years (1990–2007). We used principal component analysis and spatial correlation maps to assess coherence among ocean conditions, krill, and forage fish, and generalized additive models to quantify interannual variability in seabird breeding success relative to prey abundance. The first principal component of four hydrographic measurements yielded an index that partitioned “warm/weak upwelling” and “cool/strong upwelling” years. Partitioning of krill and forage fish time series among shelf and oceanic regions yielded spatially explicit indicators of prey availability. Krill abundance within the oceanic region was remarkably consistent between years, whereas krill over the shelf showed marked interannual fluctuations in relation to ocean conditions. Anchovy abundance varied on the shelf, and was greater in years of strong stratification, weak upwelling and warmer temperatures. Spatio-temporal variability of juvenile forage fish co-varied strongly with each other and with krill, but was weakly correlated with hydrographic conditions. Demographic responses between seabirds and prey availability revealed spatially variable associations indicative of the dynamic nature of “predator–habitat” relationships. Quantification of spatially explicit demographic responses, and their variability through time, demonstrate the possibility of delineating specific critical areas where the implementation of protective measures could maintain functions and productivity of central place foraging predators.

Local stability of a five dimensional food chain model in the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusumawinahyu, W. M.; Hidayatulloh, M. R.

2014-02-01

This paper discuss a food chain model on a microbiology ecosystem in the ocean, where predation process occurs. Four population growth rates are discussed, namely bacteria, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and protozoa growth rate. When the growth of nutrient density is also considered, the model is governed by a five dimensional dynamical system. The system considered in this paper is a modification of a model proposed by Hadley and Forbes [1], by taking Holling Type I as the functional response. For sake of simplicity, the model needs to be scaled. Dynamical behavior, such as existence condition of equilibrium points and their local stability are addressed. There are eight equilibrium points, where two of them exist under certain conditions. Three equilibrium points are unstable, while two points stable under certain conditions and the other three points are stable if the Ruth-Hurwitz criteria are satisfied. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate analytical findings.

Season-ahead water quality forecasts for the Schuylkill River, Pennsylvania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Block, P. J.; Leung, K.

2013-12-01

Anticipating and preparing for elevated water quality parameter levels in critical water sources, using weather forecasts, is not uncommon. In this study, we explore the feasibility of extending this prediction scale to a season-ahead for the Schuylkill River in Philadelphia, utilizing both statistical and dynamical prediction models, to characterize the season. This advance information has relevance for recreational activities, ecosystem health, and water treatment, as the Schuylkill provides 40% of Philadelphia's water supply. The statistical model associates large-scale climate drivers with streamflow and water quality parameter levels; numerous variables from NOAA's CFSv2 model are evaluated for the dynamical approach. A multi-model combination is also assessed. Results indicate moderately skillful prediction of average summertime total coliform and wintertime turbidity, using season-ahead oceanic and atmospheric variables, predominantly from the North Atlantic Ocean. Models predicting the number of elevated turbidity events across the wintertime season are also explored.

Oceanic Channel of the IOD-ENSO teleconnection over the Indo-Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Jing; Zhao, Xia; Zhou, Hui; Xu, Tengfei; Xu, Peng

2017-04-01

The lag correlations of observations and model simulated data that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) are used to study the precursory teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific ENSO one year later through the Indonesian seas. The results suggest that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) play an important role in the IOD-ENSO teleconnection. Numerical simulations using a hierarchy of ocean models and climate coupled models have shown that the interannual sea level depressions in the southeastern Indian Ocean during IOD force enhanced ITF to transport warm water of the Pacific warm pool to the Indian Ocean, producing cold subsurface temperature anomalies, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce significant coupled ocean-atmosphere evolution. The teleconnection is found to have decadal variability. Similar decadal variability has also been identified in the historical simulations of the CMIP5 models. The dynamics of the inter-basin teleconnection during the positive phases of the decadal variability are diagnosed to be the interannual variations of the ITF associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During the negative phases, the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously deeper so that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the cold tongue are not sensitive to the thermocline depth changes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found not affected significantly by the anthropogenic forcing.

Ocean-ice interaction in the marginal ice zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Antony K.; Peng, Chich Y.

1994-01-01

Ocean ice interaction processes in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) by wind, waves, and mesoscale features, such as upwelling and eddies, are studied using ERS-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images and ocean ice interaction model. A sequence of SAR images of the Chukchi Sea MIZ with three days interval are studied for ice edge advance/retreat. Simultaneous current measurements from the northeast Chukchi Sea as well as the Barrow wind record are used to interpret the MIZ dynamics.

The role stratification on Indian ocean mixing under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Praveen, V.; Valsala, V.; Ravindran, A. M.

2017-12-01

The impact of changes in Indian ocean stratification on mixing under global warming is examined. Previous studies on global warming and associated weakening of winds reported to increase the stratification of the world ocean leading to a reduction in mixing, increased acidity, reduced oxygen and there by a reduction in productivity. However this processes is not uniform and are also modulated by changes in wind pattern of the future. Our study evaluate the role of stratification and surface fluxes on mixing focusing northern Indian ocean. A dynamical downscaling study using Regional ocean Modelling system (ROMS) forced with stratification and surface fluxes from selected CMIP5 models are presented. Results from an extensive set of historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario simulations are used to quantify the distinctive role of stratification on mixing.

Impacts of sea-surface salinity in an eddy-resolving semi-global OGCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furue, Ryo; Takatama, Kohei; Sasaki, Hideharu; Schneider, Niklas; Nonaka, Masami; Taguchi, Bunmei

2018-02-01

To explore the impacts of sea-surface salinity (SSS) on the interannual variability of upper-ocean state, we compare two 10-year runs of an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model (OGCM): in one, SSS is strongly restored toward a monthly climatology (World Ocean Atlas '98) and in the other, toward the SSS of a monthly gridded Argo product. The inclusion of the Argo SSS generally improves the interannual variability of the mixed layer depth; particularly so in the western tropical Pacific, where so-called "barrier layers" are reproduced when the Argo SSS is included. The upper-ocean subsurface salinity variability is also improved in the tropics and subtropics even below the mixed layer. To understand the reason for the latter improvement, we separate the salinity difference between the two runs into its "dynamical" and "spiciness" components. The dynamical component is dominated by small-scale noise due to the chaotic nature of mesoscale eddies. The spiciness difference indicates that as expected from the upper-ocean general circulation, SSS variability in the mixed layer is subducted into the thermocline in subtropics; this signal is generally advected downward, equatorward, and westward in the equator-side of the subtropical gyre. The SSS signal subducted in the subtropical North Pacific appears to enter the Indian Ocean through the Indonesian Throughflow, although this signal is weak and probably insignificant in our model.

An estimation of water origins in the vicinity of a tropical cyclone's center and associated dynamic processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takakura, Toshinari; Kawamura, Ryuichi; Kawano, Tetsuya; Ichiyanagi, Kimpei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Yoshimura, Kei

2018-01-01

To clarify the time evolution of water origins in the vicinity of a tropical cyclone (TC)'s center, we have simulated Typhoon Man-yi (July 2007) in our case study, using an isotopic regional spectral model. The model results confirm that the replacement of water origins occurs successively as the TC develops and migrates northward over the western North Pacific. It is confirmed that, in this case, a significant proportion of total precipitable water around the cyclone center comes from external regions rather than the underlying ocean during the mature stage of a TC. Similar features can also be seen in the proportion of each oceanic origin to total condensation. Indian Ocean, South China Sea, and Maritime Continent water vapors begin to increase gradually at the developing stage and reach their peak at the decay stage when the TC approaches southwestern Japan. These remote ocean vapors are transported to the east of the cyclone via the moisture conveyor belt, a zone characterized by distinct low-level moisture flux that stretches from the Indian Ocean to the TC, and are further supplied into the inner region of the TC by inflow within the boundary layer associated with its secondary circulation. Since it takes time to undergo these two dynamic processes, the delayed influence of remote ocean vapors on the TC appears to become evident during the mature stage.

SEASAT economic assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hicks, K.; Steele, W.

1974-01-01

The SEASAT program will provide scientific and economic benefits from global remote sensing of the ocean's dynamic and physical characteristics. The program as presently envisioned consists of: (1) SEASAT A; (2) SEASAT B; and (3) Operational SEASAT. This economic assessment was to identify, rationalize, quantify and validate the economic benefits evolving from SEASAT. These benefits will arise from improvements in the operating efficiency of systems that interface with the ocean. SEASAT data will be combined with data from other ocean and atmospheric sampling systems and then processed through analytical models of the interaction between oceans and atmosphere to yield accurate global measurements and global long range forecasts of ocean conditions and weather.

Dynamics of upwelling annual cycle in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Li-Chiao; Jin, Fei-Fei; Wu, Chau-Ron; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung

2017-04-01

The annual upwelling is an important component of the equatorial Atlantic annual cycle. A simple theory is proposed using the framework of Zebiak-Cane (ZC) ocean model for insights into the dynamics of the upwelling annual cycle. It is demonstrated that in the Atlantic equatorial region this upwelling is dominated by Ekman processing in the west, whereas in the east it is primarily owing to shoaling and deepening of the thermocline resulting from equatorial mass meridional recharge/discharge and zonal redistribution processes associated with wind-driven equatorial ocean waves. This wind-driven wave upwelling plays an important role in the development of the annual cycle in the sea surface temperature of the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Atlantic.

Ocean regional circulation model sensitizes to resolution of the lateral boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Van Sy; Hwang, Jin Hwan

2017-04-01

Dynamical downscaling with nested regional oceanographic models is an effective approach for forecasting operationally coastal weather and projecting long term climate on the ocean. Nesting procedures deliver the unwanted in dynamic downscaling due to the differences of numerical grid sizes and updating steps. Therefore, such unavoidable errors restrict the application of the Ocean Regional Circulation Model (ORCMs) in both short-term forecasts and long-term projections. The current work identifies the effects of errors induced by computational limitations during nesting procedures on the downscaled results of the ORCMs. The errors are quantitatively evaluated for each error source and its characteristics by the Big-Brother Experiments (BBE). The BBE separates identified errors from each other and quantitatively assess the amount of uncertainties employing the same model to simulate for both nesting and nested model. Here, we focus on discussing errors resulting from two main matters associated with nesting procedures. They should be the spatial grids' differences and the temporal updating steps. After the diverse cases from separately running of the BBE, a Taylor diagram was adopted to analyze the results and suggest an optimization intern of grid size and updating period and domain sizes. Key words: lateral boundary condition, error, ocean regional circulation model, Big-Brother Experiment. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by grants from the Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries entitled "Development of integrated estuarine management system" and a National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant (No. 2015R1A5A 7037372) funded by MSIP of Korea. The authors thank the Integrated Research Institute of Construction and Environmental Engineering of Seoul National University for administrative support.

Connecting the Mississippi River with Carbon Variability in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Z. G.; He, R.; Fennel, K.; Cai, W. J.; Lohrenz, S. E.; Huang, W. J.; Tian, H.; Ren, W.

2016-02-01

To understand the linkage between landuse/land-cover change within the Mississippi basin and the carbon dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico, a three-dimensional coupled physical-biogeochemical model was used to the examine temporal and spatial variability of surface ocean pCO2 in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The model is driven by realistic atmospheric forcing, open boundary conditions from a data-assimilative global ocean circulation model, and freshwater and terrestrial nutrient and carbon input from major rivers provided by the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM). A seven-year model hindcast (2004-2010) was performed and was validated against the recently updated Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory global ocean carbon dataset. Model simulated seawater pCO2 and air-sea CO2 flux are in good agreement with in-situ measurements. An inorganic carbon budget was estimated based on the multi-year mean of the model results. Overall, the GoM is a sink of atmospheric CO2 with a flux of 0.92 × 1012 mol C yr-1, which, together with the enormous fluvial carbon input, is balanced by carbon export through the Loop Current. In a sensitivity experiment with all biological sources and sinks of carbon disabled surface pCO2 was elevated by 70 ppm, suggesting that biological uptake is the most important reason for the simulated CO2 sink. The impact from landuse and land-cover changes within the Mississippi River basin on coastal pCO2 dynamics is also discussed based on a scenario run driven by river conditions during the 1904-1910 provided by the DLEM model.

Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jianjun; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.

2009-04-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. Here we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea-level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Model Projections of Rapid Sea-Level Rise on the Northeast Coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.; Schlesinger, M.; Stouffer, R. J.

2009-12-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. In the present study, we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21 cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Submesoscale Flows and Mixing in the Ocean Surface Layer Using the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS)

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

chemical cycles, water quality, blooms , micro-nutrients, larval dispersal, biome transitions, and coupling to higher tropic levels. We collaborate with...Kurian, 2012: Heat balance and eddies in the Peru- Chile Current System. Climate Dynamics 39, 509-529, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1170-6. Colas, F., X

Use of the Polarized Radiance Distribution Camera System in the RADYO Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-28

characterization and validation of a high dynamic range radiance camera", Ocean Optics XX, Anchorage, Ak., October 2010. POSTER G. Zibordi and K. J. Voss...on light in the ocean", Submitted to Physics Today, Dec 2010. H. Zhang and K. J. Voss, "On Hapke photometric model predictions on reflectance of

Abrupt Deglacial Changes in Subarctic Pacific Ventilation: Intermediate and Deep Water Ventilation, Oxygen Fluctuations, and the relation to carbon cycle dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lembke-Jene, L.; Tiedemann, R.; Gong, X.; Max, L.; Zou, J.; Shi, X.; Lohmann, G.

2016-12-01

The modern subarctic Pacific halocline prevents the formation of deepwater masses andonly mid-depth waters are ventilated by North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW). During the last glacial, isolation of the deep North Pacific ids thought to have been more pronounced, combined with a better ventilated and expanded NPIW. This glacial deep to intermediate separation, together with upper ocean stratification, has principal implications for the deep ocean storage of carbon, as well as the mid-depth provision of nutrients by NPIW to the lower-latitude thermocline and the Pacific subarctic gyre. To date, conflicting evidence persists how the North Pacific biological and physical carbon pump reorganized during millennial-scale glacial and deglacial changes over the past 50 ka, limiting our understanding of carbon pool dynamics between Pacific ocean and the atmosphere. We present proxydata and paleoclimate modelling evidence for rapid intermediate and deep ocean nutrient and ventilation changes based on a sediment core collection with good temporal and spatial resolution from the Okhotsk Sea, Bering Sea, and the open subarctic North Pacific. High sedimentation rates (20-200 cm/ka) enable us to decipher rapid climatic changes on millennial time scales through MIS 2-3 and with a higher, up to inter-decadal, resolution during the last glacial termination. Paired AMS radiocarbon planktic-benthic ages help us to constrain water mass age changes, while multi-species foraminiferal stable isotope and redox-sensitive elemental time series provide information on past oxygenation and nutrient dynamics. We found evidence for a weaker chemical separation between intermediate and deep water during the glacial than previously thought, with rapid alternations between major NPIW ventilation areas in marginal seas, in particular during Heinrich stadials and the termination. We provide new information about the deglacial mid-depth subarctic Pacific de-oxygenation timing, extent and forcing. Finally, we discuss evidence for the spatial characteristics and causes of observed physical and chemical intermediate and deep ocean changes, based on results from a suite of paleoclimate modelling experiments using the COSMOS Earth System Model, and the high-resolution (eddy-permitting) sea ice - ocean model AWI-FESOM.

Geothermal influences on the abyssal ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emile-Geay, J.; Madec, G.

2017-12-01

Long considered a negligible contribution to ocean dynamics, geothermal heat flow (GHF) is now increasingly recognized as an important contributor to the large scale ocean's deep structure and circulation. This presentation will review the history of theories regarding geothermal influences on the abyssal ocean. Though the contribution to the thermal structure was recognized early on, its potential in driving a circulation [Worthington, 1968] was largely ignored on the grounds that it could not materially affect potential vorticity. Huang [JPO, 1999] proposed that GHF may provide 30-50% of the energy available for deep mixing, a calculation that later proved too optimistic [Wunsch & Ferrari ARFM 2004]. Model simulations suggested that a uniform GHF of 50 mW/m2 could drive an abyssal of a few Sverdrups (1 Sv = 106 m3.s-1) [Adcroft et al, GRL 2001], but it was not until Emile-Geay & Madec [OS, 2009] (EM09) that GHF began to be taken seriously [Mashayek et al, GRL 2013; Voldoire et al. Clim. Dyn. 2013; Dufresnes et al., Clim. Dyn. 2013]. Using analytical and numerical approaches, the study made 3 main points: GHF brings as much energy to the deep ocean as intense diapycnal mixing (1 cm2/s). GHF consumes the densest water masses, inducing a deep circulation of 5 Sv even without mixing. This circulation varies in inverse proportion to abyssal stratification. The spatial structure of GHF, highest at mid-ocean ridges and lowest in abyssal plains, matters far less than the fact that it bathes vast fractions of the ocean floor in a relatively low, constant flux. EM09 concluded that GHF "is an important actor of abyssal dynamics, and should no longer be neglected in oceanographic studies". Recent work has confirmed that geothermal heat flow is of comparable importance to ocean circulation as bottom-intensified mixing induced by internal wave breaking [De Lavergne et al, JPO 2016a,b]. Thus, including GHF in ocean general circulation models improves abyssal structure and circulation. We conclude with a perspective on the role of conductive geothermal heat loss versus localized, advective hydrothermal heat flow on abyssal dynamics, and delineate unsolved research problems for the years ahead.

Multi-decadal trend and space-time variability of sea level over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s: impact of decadal climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, W.; Stammer, D.; Meehl, G. A.; Hu, A.; Sienz, F.

2016-12-01

Sea level varies on decadal and multi-decadal timescales over the Indian Ocean. The variations are not spatially uniform, and can deviate considerably from the global mean sea level rise (SLR) due to various geophysical processes. One of these processes is the change of ocean circulation, which can be partly attributed to natural internal modes of climate variability. Over the Indian Ocean, the most influential climate modes on decadal and multi-decadal timescales are the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and decadal variability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Here, we first analyze observational datasets to investigate the impacts of IPO and IOD on spatial patterns of decadal and interdecadal (hereafter decal) sea level variability & multi-decadal trend over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s, using a new statistical approach of Bayesian Dynamical Linear regression Model (DLM). The Bayesian DLM overcomes the limitation of "time-constant (static)" regression coefficients in conventional multiple linear regression model, by allowing the coefficients to vary with time and therefore measuring "time-evolving (dynamical)" relationship between climate modes and sea level. For the multi-decadal sea level trend since the 1950s, our results show that climate modes and non-climate modes (the part that cannot be explained by climate modes) have comparable contributions in magnitudes but with different spatial patterns, with each dominating different regions of the Indian Ocean. For decadal variability, climate modes are the major contributors for sea level variations over most region of the tropical Indian Ocean. The relative importance of IPO and decadal variability of IOD, however, varies spatially. For example, while IOD decadal variability dominates IPO in the eastern equatorial basin (85E-100E, 5S-5N), IPO dominates IOD in causing sea level variations in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean (45E-65E, 12S-2S). To help decipher the possible contribution of external forcing to the multi-decadal sea level trend and decadal variability, we also analyze the model outputs from NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Experiments, and compare the results with our observational analyses.

What Can Earth Paleoclimates Reveal About the Resiliency of Habitable States? An Example from the Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohl, L.

2014-04-01

The Neoproterozoic "Snowball Earth" glaciations ( 750-635 Ma) have been a special focus for outer habitable zone investigations, owing in large part to a captivating and controversial hypothesis suggesting that Earth may have only narrowly escaped a runaway icehouse state on multiple occasions (a.k.a. "the hard snowball"; Hoffman and Schrag 2001). A review of climate simulations exploring snowball inception (Godderis et al. 2011) reveals that a broad range of models (EBMs, EMICs and AGCMs) tend to yield hard snowball solutions, whereas models with greater 3-D dynamic response capabilities (AOGCMs) typically do not, unless some of their climate feedback responses (e.g., wind-driven ocean circulation, cloud forcings) are disabled (Poulsen and Jacobs 2004). This finding raises the likelihood that models incorporating dynamic climate feedbacks are essential to understanding how much flexibility there may be in the definition of a planet's habitable zone boundaries for a given point in its history. In the first of a series of new Snowball Earth simulations, we use the NASA/GISS ModelE2 Global Climate Model - a 3-D coupled atmosphere/ocean model with dynamic sea ice response - to explore the impacts of wind-driven ocean circulation, clouds and deep ocean circulation on the sea ice front when solar luminosity and atmospheric carbon dioxide are reduced to Neoproterozoic levels (solar = 94%, CO2 = 40 ppmv). The simulation includes a realistic Neoproterozoic land mass distribution, which is concentrated at mid- to tropical latitudes. After 300 years, the sea ice front is established near 30 degrees latitude, and after 600 years it remains stable. As with earlier coupled model simulations we conclude that runaway glacial states would have been difficult to achieve during the Neoproterozoic, and would be more likely to have occurred during earlier times in Earth history when solar luminosity was less. Inclusion of dynamic climate feedback capabilities in habitable zone modeling studies is likely to result in an expansion of our view of what a "Goldilocks" state can entail. Future simulations with a modified version of the NASA/GISS GCM, ROCKE-3D, will take advantage of newly-added model capabilities that evaluate the influence of rotation rate, solar spectral variability, CO2 surface condensation and CO2 clouds on the outer edge of Earth's habitable zone.

Air-sea interactions during strong winter extratropical storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Jill; He, Ruoying; Warner, John C.; Bane, John

2014-01-01

A high-resolution, regional coupled atmosphere–ocean model is used to investigate strong air–sea interactions during a rapidly developing extratropical cyclone (ETC) off the east coast of the USA. In this two-way coupled system, surface momentum and heat fluxes derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting model and sea surface temperature (SST) from the Regional Ocean Modeling System are exchanged via the Model Coupling Toolkit. Comparisons are made between the modeled and observed wind velocity, sea level pressure, 10 m air temperature, and sea surface temperature time series, as well as a comparison between the model and one glider transect. Vertical profiles of modeled air temperature and winds in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and temperature variations in the upper ocean during a 3-day storm period are examined at various cross-shelf transects along the eastern seaboard. It is found that the air–sea interactions near the Gulf Stream are important for generating and sustaining the ETC. In particular, locally enhanced winds over a warm sea (relative to the land temperature) induce large surface heat fluxes which cool the upper ocean by up to 2 °C, mainly during the cold air outbreak period after the storm passage. Detailed heat budget analyses show the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux dominates the upper ocean heat content variations. Results clearly show that dynamic air–sea interactions affecting momentum and buoyancy flux exchanges in ETCs need to be resolved accurately in a coupled atmosphere–ocean modeling framework.

The viscous lee wave problem and its implications for ocean modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shakespeare, Callum J.; Hogg, Andrew McC.

2017-05-01

Ocean circulation models employ 'turbulent' viscosity and diffusivity to represent unresolved sub-gridscale processes such as breaking internal waves. Computational power has now advanced sufficiently to permit regional ocean circulation models to be run at sufficiently high (100 m-1 km) horizontal resolution to resolve a significant part of the internal wave spectrum. Here we develop theory for boundary generated internal waves in such models, and in particular, where the waves dissipate their energy. We focus specifically on the steady lee wave problem where stationary waves are generated by a large-scale flow acting across ocean bottom topography. We generalise the energy flux expressions of [Bell, T., 1975. Topographically generated internal waves in the open ocean. J. Geophys. Res. 80, 320-327] to include the effect of arbitrary viscosity and diffusivity. Applying these results for realistic parameter choices we show that in the present generation of models with O(1) m2s-1 horizontal viscosity/diffusivity boundary-generated waves will inevitably dissipate the majority of their energy within a few hundred metres of the boundary. This dissipation is a direct consequence of the artificially high viscosity/diffusivity, which is not always physically justified in numerical models. Hence, caution is necessary in comparing model results to ocean observations. Our theory further predicts that O(10-2) m2s-1 horizontal and O(10-4) m2s-1 vertical viscosity/diffusivity is required to achieve a qualitatively inviscid representation of internal wave dynamics in ocean models.

Development of a High-Resolution Climate Model for Future Climate Change Projection on the Earth Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanzawa, H.; Emori, S.; Nishimura, T.; Suzuki, T.; Inoue, T.; Hasumi, H.; Saito, F.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Kimoto, M.; Sumi, A.

2002-12-01

The fastest supercomputer of the world, the Earth Simulator (total peak performance 40TFLOPS) has recently been available for climate researches in Yokohama, Japan. We are planning to conduct a series of future climate change projection experiments on the Earth Simulator with a high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. The main scientific aims for the experiments are to investigate 1) the change in global ocean circulation with an eddy-permitting ocean model, 2) the regional details of the climate change including Asian monsoon rainfall pattern, tropical cyclones and so on, and 3) the change in natural climate variability with a high-resolution model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. To meet these aims, an atmospheric GCM, CCSR/NIES AGCM, with T106(~1.1o) horizontal resolution and 56 vertical layers is to be coupled with an oceanic GCM, COCO, with ~ 0.28ox 0.19o horizontal resolution and 48 vertical layers. This coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model, named MIROC, also includes a land-surface model, a dynamic-thermodynamic seaice model, and a river routing model. The poles of the oceanic model grid system are rotated from the geographic poles so that they are placed in Greenland and Antarctic land masses to avoild the singularity of the grid system. Each of the atmospheric and the oceanic parts of the model is parallelized with the Message Passing Interface (MPI) technique. The coupling of the two is to be done with a Multi Program Multi Data (MPMD) fashion. A 100-model-year integration will be possible in one actual month with 720 vector processors (which is only 14% of the full resources of the Earth Simulator).

Impacts of atmospheric variability on a coupled upper-ocean/ecosystem model of the subarctic Northeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monahan, Adam Hugh; Denman, Kenneth L.

2004-06-01

The biologically-mediated flux of carbon from the upper ocean to below the permanent thermocline (the biological pump) is estimated to be ˜10 PgC/yr [, 2001], and plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. A detailed quantitative understanding of the dynamics of the biological pump is therefore important, particularly in terms of its potential sensitivity to climate change and its role in this change via feedback processes. Previous studies of coupled upper-ocean/planktonic ecosystem dynamics have considered models forced by observed atmospheric variability or by smooth annual and diurnal cycles. The second approach has the drawback that environmental variability is ubiquitous in the climate system, and may have a nontrivial impact on the (nonlinear) dynamics of the system, while the first approach is limited by the fact that observed time series are generally too short to obtain statistically robust characterizations of variability in the system. In the present study, an empirical stochastic model of high-frequency atmospheric variability (with a decorrelation timescale of less than a week) is estimated from long-term observations at Ocean Station Papa in the northeast subarctic Pacific. This empirical model, the second-order statistics of which resemble those of the observations to a good approximation, is used to produce very long (1000-year) realizations of atmospheric variability which are used to drive a coupled upper-ocean/ecosystem model. It is found that fluctuations in atmospheric forcing do not have an essential qualitative impact on most aspects of the dynamics of the ecosystem when primary production is limited by the availability of iron, although pronounced interannual variability in diatom abundance is simulated (even in the absence of episodic iron fertilization). In contrast, the impacts of atmospheric variability are considerably more significant when phytoplankton growth is limited in the summer by nitrogen availability, as observed closer to the North American coast. Furthermore, the high-frequency variability in atmospheric forcing is associated with regions in parameter space in which the system alternates between iron and nitrogen limitation on interannual to interdecadal timescales. Both the mean and variability of export production are found to be significantly larger in the nitrogen-limited regime than in the iron-limited regime.

Enhancing the Arctic Mean Sea Surface and Mean Dynamic Topography with CryoSat-2 Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenseng, Lars; Andersen, Ole B.; Knudsen, Per

2014-05-01

A reliable mean sea surface (MSS) is essential to derive a good mean dynamic topography (MDT) and for the estimation of short and long-term changes in the sea surface. The lack of satellite radar altimetry observations above 82 degrees latitude means that existing mean sea surface models have been unreliable in the Arctic Ocean. We here present the latest DTU mean sea surface and mean dynamic topography models that includes CryoSat-2 data to improve the reliability in the Arctic Ocean. In an attempt to extrapolate across the gap above 82 degrees latitude the previously models included ICESat data, gravimetrical geoids, ocean circulation models and various combinations hereof. Unfortunately cloud cover and the short periods of operation has a negative effect on the number of ICESat sea surface observations. DTU13MSS and DTU13MDT are the new generation of state of the art global high-resolution models that includes CryoSat-2 data to extend the satellite radar altimetry coverage up to 88 degrees latitude. Furthermore the SAR and SARin capability of CryoSat-2 dramatically increases the amount of useable sea surface returns in sea-ice covered areas compared to conventional radar altimeters like ENVISAT and ERS-1/2. With the inclusion of CryoSat-2 data the new mean sea surface is improved by more than 20 cm above 82 degrees latitude compared with the previous generation of mean sea surfaces.

Uncertainties in data-model comparisons: Spatio-temporal scales for past climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, G.

2016-12-01

Data-model comparisons are hindered by uncertainties like varying reservoir ages or potential seasonality bias of the recorder systems, but also due to the models' difficulty to represent the spatio-temporal variability patterns. For the Holocene we detect a sensitivity to horizontal resolution in the atmosphere, the representation of atmospheric dynamics, as well as the dynamics of the western boundary currents in the ocean. These features can create strong spatial heterogeneity in the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans over long timescales (unlike a diffusive spatio-temporal scale separation). Futhermore, it is shown that such non-linear mechanisms could create a non-trivial response to seasonal insolation forcing via an atmospheric bridge inducing non-uniform temperature anomalies over the northern continents on multi-millennial time scales. Through the fluctuation-dissipation-theorem, climate variability and sensitivity are ultimately coupled. It is argued that some obvious biases between models and data may be linked to the missing key persistent component of the atmospheric dynamics, the North Atlantic blocking activity. It is shown that blocking is also linked to Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability and to extreme events. Interestingly, several proxies provide a measure of the frequency of extreme events, and a proper representation is a true challenge for climate models. Finally, case studies from deep paleo are presented in which changes in land-sea distribution or subscale parameterizations can cause relatively large effects on surface temperature. Such experiments can explore the phase space of solutions, but show the limitation of past climates to constrain climate sensitivity.

Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL VLBI parameter estimation software MODEST, 19 94

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sovers, O. J.; Jacobs, C. S.

1994-01-01

This report is a revision of the document Observation Model and Parameter Partials for the JPL VLBI Parameter Estimation Software 'MODEST'---1991, dated August 1, 1991. It supersedes that document and its four previous versions (1983, 1985, 1986, and 1987). A number of aspects of the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) model were improved from 1991 to 1994. Treatment of tidal effects is extended to model the effects of ocean tides on universal time and polar motion (UTPM), including a default model for nearly diurnal and semidiurnal ocean tidal UTPM variations, and partial derivatives for all (solid and ocean) tidal UTPM amplitudes. The time-honored 'K(sub 1) correction' for solid earth tides has been extended to include analogous frequency-dependent response of five tidal components. Partials of ocean loading amplitudes are now supplied. The Zhu-Mathews-Oceans-Anisotropy (ZMOA) 1990-2 and Kinoshita-Souchay models of nutation are now two of the modeling choices to replace the increasingly inadequate 1980 International Astronomical Union (IAU) nutation series. A rudimentary model of antenna thermal expansion is provided. Two more troposphere mapping functions have been added to the repertoire. Finally, corrections among VLBI observations via the model of Treuhaft and lanyi improve modeling of the dynamic troposphere. A number of minor misprints in Rev. 4 have been corrected.

The surface drifter program for real time and off-line validation of ocean forecasts and reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, Fabrice; Regnier, Charly; Drévillon, Marie

2017-04-01

As part of the Global Ocean Observing System, the Global Drifter Program (GDP) is comprised of an array of about 1250 drifting buoys spread over the global ocean, that provide operational, near-real time surface velocity, sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure observations. This information is used mainly used for numerical weather forecasting, research, and in-situ calibration/verification of satellite observations. Since 2013 the drifting buoy SST measurements are used for near real time assessment of global forecasting systems from Canada, France, UK, USA, Australia in the frame of the GODAE OceanView Intercomparison and Validation Task. For most of these operational systems, these data are not used for assimilation, and offer an independent observation assessment. This approach mimics the validation performed for SST satellite products. More recently, validation procedures have been proposed in order to assess the surface dynamics of Mercator Océan global and regional forecast and reanalyses. Velocities deduced from drifter trajectories are used in two ways. First, the Eulerian approach where buoy and ocean model velocity values are compared at the position of drifters. Then, from discrepancies, statistics are computed and provide an evaluation of the ocean model's surface dynamics reliability. Second, the Lagrangian approach, where drifting trajectories are simulated at each location of the real drifter trajectory using the ocean model velocity fields. Then, on daily basis, real and simulated drifter trajectories are compared by analyzing the spread after one day, two days etc…. The cumulated statistics on specific geographical boxes are evaluated in term of dispersion properties of the "real ocean" as captured by drifters, and those properties in the ocean model. This approach allows to better evaluate forecasting score for surface dispersion applications, like Search and Rescue, oil spill forecast, drift of other objects or contaminant, larvae dispersion etc… These Eulerian and Lagrangian validation approach can be applied for real time or offline assessment of ocean velocity products. In real time, the main limitation is our capability to detect drifter drogue's loss, causing erroneous assessment. Several methods, by comparison to wind entrainment effect or other velocity estimates like from satellite altimetry, are used. These Eulerian and Lagrangian surface velocity validation methods are planned to be adopted by the GODAE OceanView operational community in order to offer independent verification of surface current forecast.

Research program of the Geodynamics Branch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahn, W. D. (Editor); Cohen, S. C. (Editor); Boccucci, B. S. (Editor)

1986-01-01

This report is the Fourth Annual Summary of the Research Program of the Geodynamics Branch. The branch is located within the Laboratory for Terrestrial Physics of the Space and Earth Sciences Directorate of the Goddard Space Flight Center. The research activities of the branch staff cover a broad spectrum of geoscience disciplines including: tectonophysics, space geodesy, geopotential field modeling, and dynamic oceanography. The NASA programs which are supported by the work described in this document include the Geodynamics and Ocean Programs, the Crustal Dynamics Project and the proposed Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX). The reports highlight the investigations conducted by the Geodynamics Branch staff during calendar year 1985. The individual papers are grouped into chapters on Crustal Movements and Solid Earth Dynamics, Gravity Field Modeling and Sensing Techniques, and Sea Surface Topography. Further information on the activities of the branch or the particular research efforts described herein can be obtained through the branch office or from individual staff members.

Ocean processes at the Antarctic continental slope.

PubMed

Heywood, Karen J; Schmidtko, Sunke; Heuzé, Céline; Kaiser, Jan; Jickells, Timothy D; Queste, Bastien Y; Stevens, David P; Wadley, Martin; Thompson, Andrew F; Fielding, Sophie; Guihen, Damien; Creed, Elizabeth; Ridley, Jeff K; Smith, Walker

2014-07-13

The Antarctic continental shelves and slopes occupy relatively small areas, but, nevertheless, are important for global climate, biogeochemical cycling and ecosystem functioning. Processes of water mass transformation through sea ice formation/melting and ocean-atmosphere interaction are key to the formation of deep and bottom waters as well as determining the heat flux beneath ice shelves. Climate models, however, struggle to capture these physical processes and are unable to reproduce water mass properties of the region. Dynamics at the continental slope are key for correctly modelling climate, yet their small spatial scale presents challenges both for ocean modelling and for observational studies. Cross-slope exchange processes are also vital for the flux of nutrients such as iron from the continental shelf into the mixed layer of the Southern Ocean. An iron-cycling model embedded in an eddy-permitting ocean model reveals the importance of sedimentary iron in fertilizing parts of the Southern Ocean. Ocean gliders play a key role in improving our ability to observe and understand these small-scale processes at the continental shelf break. The Gliders: Excellent New Tools for Observing the Ocean (GENTOO) project deployed three Seagliders for up to two months in early 2012 to sample the water to the east of the Antarctic Peninsula in unprecedented temporal and spatial detail. The glider data resolve small-scale exchange processes across the shelf-break front (the Antarctic Slope Front) and the front's biogeochemical signature. GENTOO demonstrated the capability of ocean gliders to play a key role in a future multi-disciplinary Southern Ocean observing system.

Using a dynamical advection to reconstruct a part of the SSH evolution in the context of SWOT, application to the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogé, Marine; Morrow, Rosemary; Ubelmann, Clément; Dibarboure, Gérald

2017-08-01

The main oceanographic objective of the future SWOT mission is to better characterize the ocean mesoscale and sub-mesoscale circulation, by observing a finer range of ocean topography dynamics down to 20 km wavelength. Despite the very high spatial resolution of the future satellite, it will not capture the time evolution of the shorter mesoscale signals, such as the formation and evolution of small eddies. SWOT will have an exact repeat cycle of 21 days, with near repeats around 5-10 days, depending on the latitude. Here, we investigate a technique to reconstruct the missing 2D SSH signal in the time between two satellite revisits. We use the dynamical interpolation (DI) technique developed by Ubelmann et al. (2015). Based on potential vorticity (hereafter PV) conservation using a one and a half layer quasi-geostrophic model, it features an active advection of the SSH field. This model has been tested in energetic open ocean regions such as the Gulf Stream and the Californian Current, and has given promising results. Here, we test this model in the Western Mediterranean Sea, a lower energy region with complex small scale physics, and compare the SSH reconstruction with the high-resolution Symphonie model. We investigate an extension of the simple dynamical model including a separated mean circulation. We find that the DI gives a 16-18% improvement in the reconstruction of the surface height and eddy kinetic energy fields, compared with a simple linear interpolation, and a 37% improvement in the Northern Current subregion. Reconstruction errors are higher during winter and autumn but statistically, the improvement from the DI is also better for these seasons.

Behaviour of oceanic 137Cs following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident for four years simulated numerically by a regional ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsumune, D.; Tsubono, T.; Aoyama, M.; Misumi, K.; Tateda, Y.

2015-12-01

A series of accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F NPP) following the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011 resulted in the release of radioactive materials to the ocean by two major pathways, direct release from the accident site and atmospheric deposition.We reconstructed spatiotemporal variability of 137Cs activity in the regional ocean for four years by numerical model, such as a regional scale and the North Pacific scale oceanic dispersion models, an atmospheric transport model, a sediment transport model, a dynamic biological compartment model for marine biota and river runoff model. Direct release rate of 137Cs were estimated for four years after the accident by comparing simulated results and observed activities very close to the site. The estimated total amounts of directly release was 3.6±0.7 PBq. Directly release rate of 137Cs decreased exponentially with time by the end of December 2012 and then, was almost constant. Decrease rate were quite small after 2013. The daily release rate of 137Cs was estimated to be the order of magnitude of 1010 Bq/day by the end of March 2015. The activity of directly released 137Cs was detectable only in the coastal zone after December 2012. Simulated 137Cs activities attributable to direct release were in good agreement with observed activities, a result that implies the estimated direct release rate was reasonable. There is no observed data of 137Cs activity in the ocean from 11 to 21 March 2011. Observed data of marine biota should reflect the history of 137Cs activity in this early period. We reconstructed the history of 137Cs activity in this early period by considering atmospheric deposition, river input, rain water runoff from the 1F NPP site. The comparisons between simulated 137Cs activity of marine biota by a dynamic biological compartment and observed data also suggest that simulated 137Cs activity attributable to atmospheric deposition was underestimated in this early period. The simulated river flux of 137Cs to the ocean did not effect on 137Cs activity in the ocean even if the parameters in this simulation have uncertainties because of the lack of observed data in rivers in the earlier period.

Behaviour of oceanic 137Cs following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident for four years simulated numerically by a regional ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torn, M. S.; Koven, C. D.; Riley, W. J.; Zhu, B.; Hicks Pries, C.; Phillips, C. L.

2014-12-01

A series of accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F NPP) following the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011 resulted in the release of radioactive materials to the ocean by two major pathways, direct release from the accident site and atmospheric deposition.We reconstructed spatiotemporal variability of 137Cs activity in the regional ocean for four years by numerical model, such as a regional scale and the North Pacific scale oceanic dispersion models, an atmospheric transport model, a sediment transport model, a dynamic biological compartment model for marine biota and river runoff model. Direct release rate of 137Cs were estimated for four years after the accident by comparing simulated results and observed activities very close to the site. The estimated total amounts of directly release was 3.6±0.7 PBq. Directly release rate of 137Cs decreased exponentially with time by the end of December 2012 and then, was almost constant. Decrease rate were quite small after 2013. The daily release rate of 137Cs was estimated to be the order of magnitude of 1010 Bq/day by the end of March 2015. The activity of directly released 137Cs was detectable only in the coastal zone after December 2012. Simulated 137Cs activities attributable to direct release were in good agreement with observed activities, a result that implies the estimated direct release rate was reasonable. There is no observed data of 137Cs activity in the ocean from 11 to 21 March 2011. Observed data of marine biota should reflect the history of 137Cs activity in this early period. We reconstructed the history of 137Cs activity in this early period by considering atmospheric deposition, river input, rain water runoff from the 1F NPP site. The comparisons between simulated 137Cs activity of marine biota by a dynamic biological compartment and observed data also suggest that simulated 137Cs activity attributable to atmospheric deposition was underestimated in this early period. The simulated river flux of 137Cs to the ocean did not effect on 137Cs activity in the ocean even if the parameters in this simulation have uncertainties because of the lack of observed data in rivers in the earlier period.

An overview of the South Atlantic Ocean climate variability and air-sea interaction processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pezzi, L. P.; Parise, C. K.; Souza, R.; Gherardi, D. F.; Camargo, R.; Soares, H. C.; Silveira, I.

2013-05-01

The Ocean Modeling Group at the National Institute of Space Research (INPE) in Brazil has been developing several studies to understand the role of the Atlantic ocean on the South America climate. Studies include simulating the dynamics of the Tropical South-Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean. This is part of an ongoing international cooperation, in which Brazil participates with in situ observations, numerical modeling and statistical analyses. We have focused on the understanding of the impacts of extreme weather events over the Tropical South Atlantic Ocean and their prediction on different time-scales. One such study is aimed at analyzing the climate signal generated by imposing an extreme condition on the Antarctic sea ice and considering different complexities of the sea ice model. The influence of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) region on the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) is also investigated through in situ data analysis of different cruises and numerical experiments with a regional numerical model. There is also an ongoing investigation that revealed basin-scale interannual climate variation with impacts on the Brazilian Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs), which are strongly correlated with climate indices such as ENSO, AAO and PDO.

Modeling ice front Dynamics of Northwest Greenland in response to ocean thermal forcing, using ISSM and OMG data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morlighem, M.; Bondzio, J. H.; Seroussi, H. L.; Wood, M.; Rignot, E. J.

2016-12-01

Glacier-front dynamics is an important control on Greenland's ice mass balance. Warmer ocean waters trigger ice-front retreats of marine-terminating glaciers, and the corresponding loss in resistive stress leads to glacier acceleration and thinning. Here, we quantify the sensitivity and vulnerability of marine-terminating glaciers along the Northwest coast of Greenland (from 73°N to 7°N) to ocean-induced melt using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and bathymetry data collected by NASA's Occreans Melting Greenland (OMG). We first combine OMG bathymetry data with ice velocity from satellites and ice thickness from airborne radars using a mass conservation approach on land to produce ice thickness and bed elevation mapping across the ice-ocean boundary that are more precise and reliable than ever before. Using this new map, we then develop a plan-view model of this region that includes a level set based moving boundary capability, a parameterized ocean-induced melt and a calving law based on a Von Mises criterion. We find that some glaciers, such as Dietrichson Gletscher or Alison Gletscher, are sensitive to small increases in ocean-induced melt, while others, such as Steenstrup Gletscher or Qeqertarsuup Sermia, are very difficult to destabilize, even with a quadrupling of the melt. Under the most intense melt experiment of 12 m/day in the summer, we find that Hayes Gletscher retreats by more than 50 km inland into a deep trough and its velocity increases by a factor of 10 over only 15 years. The model suggests that ice-ocean interactions are the triggering mechanism of glacier retreat, but the bed controls its magnitude. This work was performed at the University of California Irvine under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Cryospheric Sciences Program, grant NNX15AD55G.

Spatial distirbution of Antarctic mass flux due to iceberg transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comeau, Darin; Hunke, Elizabeth; Turner, Adrian

Under a changing climate that sees amplified warming in the polar regions, the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet and its impact on sea level rise is of great importance. Icebergs are at the interface of the land-ice, ocean, and sea ice systems, and represent approximately half of the mass flux from the Antarctic ice sheet to the ocean. Calved icebergs transport freshwater away from the coast and exchange heat with the ocean, thereby affecting stratification and circulation, with subsequent indirect thermodynamic effects to the sea ice system. Icebergs also dynamically interact with surrounding sea ice pack, as well as serving as nutrient sources for biogeochemical activity. The spatial pattern of these fluxes transported from the continent to the ocean is generally poorly represented in current global climate models. We are implementing an iceberg model into the new Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) within the MPAS-Seaice model, which uses a variable resolution, unstructured grid framework. This capability will allow for full coupling with the land ice model to inform calving fluxes, and the ocean model for freshwater and heat exchange, giving a complete representation of the iceberg lifecycle and increasing the fidelity of ACME southern cryosphere simulations.

Fast neural network surrogates for very high dimensional physics-based models in computational oceanography.

PubMed

van der Merwe, Rudolph; Leen, Todd K; Lu, Zhengdong; Frolov, Sergey; Baptista, Antonio M

2007-05-01

We present neural network surrogates that provide extremely fast and accurate emulation of a large-scale circulation model for the coupled Columbia River, its estuary and near ocean regions. The circulation model has O(10(7)) degrees of freedom, is highly nonlinear and is driven by ocean, atmospheric and river influences at its boundaries. The surrogates provide accurate emulation of the full circulation code and run over 1000 times faster. Such fast dynamic surrogates will enable significant advances in ensemble forecasts in oceanography and weather.

Integration of Coastal Ocean Dynamics Application Radar (CODAR) and Short-Term Predictive System (STPS): Surface Current Estimates into the Search and Rescue Optimal Planning System (SAROPS)

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-11-01

walk (Markovian in position) techniques to perform these simulations ( Breivik et al, 2004; Spaulding and Howlett, 1996; Spaulding and Jayko, 1991; ASA...studies. Model 1 is used in most search and rescue models to make trajectory predictions ( Breivik et al, 2004; Spaulding and Howlett, 1996; Spaulding...ocean gyres: Part II hierarchy of stochastic models, Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 32, 797-830. March 2002. Breivik , O., A. Allen, C. Wettre

Observed changes in the Earth's dynamic oblateness from GRACE data and geophysical models.

PubMed

Sun, Y; Ditmar, P; Riva, R

A new methodology is proposed to estimate changes in the Earth's dynamic oblateness ([Formula: see text] or equivalently, [Formula: see text]) on a monthly basis. The algorithm uses monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity solutions, an ocean bottom pressure model and a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model. The resulting time series agree remarkably well with a solution based on satellite laser ranging (SLR) data. Seasonal variations of the obtained time series show little sensitivity to the choice of GRACE solutions. Reducing signal leakage in coastal areas when dealing with GRACE data and accounting for self-attraction and loading effects when dealing with water redistribution in the ocean is crucial in achieving close agreement with the SLR-based solution in terms of de-trended solutions. The obtained trend estimates, on the other hand, may be less accurate due to their dependence on the GIA models, which still carry large uncertainties.

Processes driving sea ice variability in the Bering Sea in an eddying ocean/sea ice model: Mean seasonal cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Linghan; McClean, Julie L.; Miller, Arthur J.; Eisenman, Ian; Hendershott, Myrl C.; Papadopoulos, Caroline A.

2014-12-01

The seasonal cycle of sea ice variability in the Bering Sea, together with the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that control it, are examined in a fine resolution (1/10°) global coupled ocean/sea-ice model configured in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The ocean/sea-ice model consists of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE). The model was forced with time-varying reanalysis atmospheric forcing for the time period 1970-1989. This study focuses on the time period 1980-1989. The simulated seasonal-mean fields of sea ice concentration strongly resemble satellite-derived observations, as quantified by root-mean-square errors and pattern correlation coefficients. The sea ice energy budget reveals that the seasonal thermodynamic ice volume changes are dominated by the surface energy flux between the atmosphere and the ice in the northern region and by heat flux from the ocean to the ice along the southern ice edge, especially on the western side. The sea ice force balance analysis shows that sea ice motion is largely associated with wind stress. The force due to divergence of the internal ice stress tensor is large near the land boundaries in the north, and it is small in the central and southern ice-covered region. During winter, which dominates the annual mean, it is found that the simulated sea ice was mainly formed in the northern Bering Sea, with the maximum ice growth rate occurring along the coast due to cold air from northerly winds and ice motion away from the coast. South of St Lawrence Island, winds drive the model sea ice southwestward from the north to the southwestern part of the ice-covered region. Along the ice edge in the western Bering Sea, model sea ice is melted by warm ocean water, which is carried by the simulated Bering Slope Current flowing to the northwest, resulting in the S-shaped asymmetric ice edge. In spring and fall, similar thermodynamic and dynamic patterns occur in the model, but with typically smaller magnitudes and with season-specific geographical and directional differences.

Sea ice thermohaline dynamics and biogeochemistry in the Arctic Ocean: Empirical and model results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duarte, Pedro; Meyer, Amelie; Olsen, Lasse M.

Here, large changes in the sea ice regime of the Arctic Ocean have occurred over the last decades justifying the development of models to forecast sea ice physics and biogeochemistry. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) to simulate physical and biogeochemical properties at time scales of a few weeks and to use the model to analyze ice algal bloom dynamics in different types of ice. Ocean and atmospheric forcing data and observations of the evolution of the sea ice properties collected from 18 April to 4 Junemore » 2015, during the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition, were used to test the CICE model. Our results show the following: (i) model performance is reasonable for sea ice thickness and bulk salinity; good for vertically resolved temperature, vertically averaged Chl a concentrations, and standing stocks; and poor for vertically resolved Chl a concentrations. (ii) Improving current knowledge about nutrient exchanges, ice algal recruitment, and motion is critical to improve sea ice biogeochemical modeling. (iii) Ice algae may bloom despite some degree of basal melting. (iv) Ice algal motility driven by gradients in limiting factors is a plausible mechanism to explain their vertical distribution. (v) Different ice algal bloom and net primary production (NPP) patterns were identified in the ice types studied, suggesting that ice algal maximal growth rates will increase, while sea ice vertically integrated NPP and biomass will decrease as a result of the predictable increase in the area covered by refrozen leads in the Arctic Ocean.« less

Sea ice thermohaline dynamics and biogeochemistry in the Arctic Ocean: Empirical and model results

DOE PAGES

Duarte, Pedro; Meyer, Amelie; Olsen, Lasse M.; ...

2017-06-08

Here, large changes in the sea ice regime of the Arctic Ocean have occurred over the last decades justifying the development of models to forecast sea ice physics and biogeochemistry. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) to simulate physical and biogeochemical properties at time scales of a few weeks and to use the model to analyze ice algal bloom dynamics in different types of ice. Ocean and atmospheric forcing data and observations of the evolution of the sea ice properties collected from 18 April to 4 Junemore » 2015, during the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition, were used to test the CICE model. Our results show the following: (i) model performance is reasonable for sea ice thickness and bulk salinity; good for vertically resolved temperature, vertically averaged Chl a concentrations, and standing stocks; and poor for vertically resolved Chl a concentrations. (ii) Improving current knowledge about nutrient exchanges, ice algal recruitment, and motion is critical to improve sea ice biogeochemical modeling. (iii) Ice algae may bloom despite some degree of basal melting. (iv) Ice algal motility driven by gradients in limiting factors is a plausible mechanism to explain their vertical distribution. (v) Different ice algal bloom and net primary production (NPP) patterns were identified in the ice types studied, suggesting that ice algal maximal growth rates will increase, while sea ice vertically integrated NPP and biomass will decrease as a result of the predictable increase in the area covered by refrozen leads in the Arctic Ocean.« less

Sea ice thermohaline dynamics and biogeochemistry in the Arctic Ocean: Empirical and model results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duarte, Pedro; Meyer, Amelie; Olsen, Lasse M.; Kauko, Hanna M.; Assmy, Philipp; Rösel, Anja; Itkin, Polona; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.; Gerland, Sebastian; Sundfjord, Arild; Steen, Harald; Hop, Haakon; Cohen, Lana; Peterson, Algot K.; Jeffery, Nicole; Elliott, Scott M.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Turner, Adrian K.

2017-07-01

Large changes in the sea ice regime of the Arctic Ocean have occurred over the last decades justifying the development of models to forecast sea ice physics and biogeochemistry. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) to simulate physical and biogeochemical properties at time scales of a few weeks and to use the model to analyze ice algal bloom dynamics in different types of ice. Ocean and atmospheric forcing data and observations of the evolution of the sea ice properties collected from 18 April to 4 June 2015, during the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition, were used to test the CICE model. Our results show the following: (i) model performance is reasonable for sea ice thickness and bulk salinity; good for vertically resolved temperature, vertically averaged Chl a concentrations, and standing stocks; and poor for vertically resolved Chl a concentrations. (ii) Improving current knowledge about nutrient exchanges, ice algal recruitment, and motion is critical to improve sea ice biogeochemical modeling. (iii) Ice algae may bloom despite some degree of basal melting. (iv) Ice algal motility driven by gradients in limiting factors is a plausible mechanism to explain their vertical distribution. (v) Different ice algal bloom and net primary production (NPP) patterns were identified in the ice types studied, suggesting that ice algal maximal growth rates will increase, while sea ice vertically integrated NPP and biomass will decrease as a result of the predictable increase in the area covered by refrozen leads in the Arctic Ocean.

Constraints on dynamic topography from asymmetric subsidence of the mid-ocean ridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watkins, C. Evan; Conrad, Clinton P.

2018-02-01

Stresses from mantle convection deflect Earth's surface vertically, producing dynamic topography that is important for continental dynamics and sea-level change but difficult to observe due to overprinting by isostatic topography. For long wavelengths (∼104 km), the amplitude of dynamic topography is particularly uncertain, with mantle flow models typically suggesting larger amplitudes (>1000 m) than direct observations. Here we develop a new constraint on the amplitude of long-wavelength dynamic topography by examining asymmetries in seafloor bathymetry across mid-ocean ridges. We compare bathymetric profiles across the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) and the East Pacific Rise (EPR) and we find that the South American flank of both ridges subsides faster than its opposing flank. This pattern is consistent with dynamic subsidence across South America, supported by downwelling in the lower mantle. To constrain the amplitude of dynamic topography, we compare bathymetric profiles across both ridges after correcting bathymetry for several different models of dynamic topography with varying amplitudes and spatial patterns. We find that long-wavelength dynamic topography with an amplitude of only ∼500 m explains the observed asymmetry of the MAR. A similar model can explain EPR asymmetry but is complicated by additional asymmetrical topography associated with tectonic, crustal thickness, and/or asthenospheric temperature asymmetries across the EPR. After removing 500 m of dynamic topography, both the MAR and EPR exhibit a slower seafloor subsidence rate (∼280-290 m/Myr1/2) than previously reported. Our finding of only ∼500 m of long-wavelength dynamic topography may indicate the importance of thermochemical convection and/or large viscosity variations for lower mantle dynamics.

Ocean Surface Winds Drive Dynamics of Transoceanic Aerial Movements

PubMed Central

Felicísimo, Ángel M.; Muñoz, Jesús; González-Solis, Jacob

2008-01-01

Global wind patterns influence dispersal and migration processes of aerial organisms, propagules and particles, which ultimately could determine the dynamics of colonizations, invasions or spread of pathogens. However, studying how wind-mediated movements actually happen has been hampered so far by the lack of high resolution global wind data as well as the impossibility to track aerial movements. Using concurrent data on winds and actual pathways of a tracked seabird, here we show that oceanic winds define spatiotemporal pathways and barriers for large-scale aerial movements. We obtained wind data from NASA SeaWinds scatterometer to calculate wind cost (impedance) models reflecting the resistance to the aerial movement near the ocean surface. We also tracked the movements of a model organism, the Cory's shearwater (Calonectris diomedea), a pelagic bird known to perform long distance migrations. Cost models revealed that distant areas can be connected through “wind highways” that do not match the shortest great circle routes. Bird routes closely followed the low-cost “wind-highways” linking breeding and wintering areas. In addition, we found that a potential barrier, the near surface westerlies in the Atlantic sector of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), temporally hindered meridional trans-equatorial movements. Once the westerlies vanished, birds crossed the ITCZ to their winter quarters. This study provides a novel approach to investigate wind-mediated movements in oceanic environments and shows that large-scale migration and dispersal processes over the oceans can be largely driven by spatiotemporal wind patterns. PMID:18698354

Ocean surface winds drive dynamics of transoceanic aerial movements.

PubMed

Felicísimo, Angel M; Muñoz, Jesús; González-Solis, Jacob

2008-08-13

Global wind patterns influence dispersal and migration processes of aerial organisms, propagules and particles, which ultimately could determine the dynamics of colonizations, invasions or spread of pathogens. However, studying how wind-mediated movements actually happen has been hampered so far by the lack of high resolution global wind data as well as the impossibility to track aerial movements. Using concurrent data on winds and actual pathways of a tracked seabird, here we show that oceanic winds define spatiotemporal pathways and barriers for large-scale aerial movements. We obtained wind data from NASA SeaWinds scatterometer to calculate wind cost (impedance) models reflecting the resistance to the aerial movement near the ocean surface. We also tracked the movements of a model organism, the Cory's shearwater (Calonectris diomedea), a pelagic bird known to perform long distance migrations. Cost models revealed that distant areas can be connected through "wind highways" that do not match the shortest great circle routes. Bird routes closely followed the low-cost "wind-highways" linking breeding and wintering areas. In addition, we found that a potential barrier, the near surface westerlies in the Atlantic sector of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), temporally hindered meridional trans-equatorial movements. Once the westerlies vanished, birds crossed the ITCZ to their winter quarters. This study provides a novel approach to investigate wind-mediated movements in oceanic environments and shows that large-scale migration and dispersal processes over the oceans can be largely driven by spatiotemporal wind patterns.

Assimilation of altimeter data into a quasigeostrophic ocean model using optimal interpolation and eofs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rienecker, M. M.; Adamec, D.

1995-01-01

An ensemble of fraternal-twin experiments is used to assess the utility of optimal interpolation and model-based vertical empirical orthogonal functions (eofs) of streamfunction variability to assimilate satellite altimeter data into ocean models. Simulated altimeter data are assimilated into a basin-wide 3-layer quasi-geostrophic model with a horizontal grid spacing of 15 km. The effects of bottom topography are included and the model is forced by a wind stress curl distribution which is constant in time. The simulated data are extracted, along altimeter tracks with spatial and temporal characteristics of Geosat, from a reference model ocean with a slightly different climatology from that generated by the model used for assimilation. The use of vertical eofs determined from the model-generated streamfunction variability is shown to be effective in aiding the model's dynamical extrapolation of the surface information throughout the rest of the water column. After a single repeat cycle (17 days), the analysis errors are reduced markedly from the initial level, by 52% in the surface layer, 41% in the second layer and 11% in the bottom layer. The largest differences between the assimilation analysis and the reference ocean are found in the nonlinear regime of the mid-latitude jet in all layers. After 100 days of assimilation, the error in the upper two layers has been reduced by over 50% and that in the bottom layer by 38%. The essence of the method is that the eofs capture the statistics of the dynamical balances in the model and ensure that this balance is not inappropriately disturbed during the assimilation process. This statistical balance includes any potential vorticity homogeneity which may be associated with the eddy stirring by mid-latitude surface jets.

Model Scaling of Hydrokinetic Ocean Renewable Energy Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Ellenrieder, Karl; Valentine, William

2013-11-01

Numerical simulations are performed to validate a non-dimensional dynamic scaling procedure that can be applied to subsurface and deeply moored systems, such as hydrokinetic ocean renewable energy devices. The prototype systems are moored in water 400 m deep and include: subsurface spherical buoys moored in a shear current and excited by waves; an ocean current turbine excited by waves; and a deeply submerged spherical buoy in a shear current excited by strong current fluctuations. The corresponding model systems, which are scaled based on relative water depths of 10 m and 40 m, are also studied. For each case examined, the response of the model system closely matches the scaled response of the corresponding full-sized prototype system. The results suggest that laboratory-scale testing of complete ocean current renewable energy systems moored in a current is possible. This work was supported by the U.S. Southeast National Marine Renewable Energy Center (SNMREC).

A Preliminary Model Study of the Large-Scale Seasonal Cycle in Bottom Pressure Over the Global Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ponte, Rui M.

1998-01-01

Output from the primitive equation model of Semtner and Chervin is used to examine the seasonal cycle in bottom pressure (Pb) over the global ocean. Effects of the volume-conserving formulation of the model on the calculation Of Pb are considered. The estimated seasonal, large-scale Pb signals have amplitudes ranging from less than 1 cm over most of the deep ocean to several centimeters over shallow, boundary regions. Variability generally increases toward the western sides of the basins, and is also larger in some Southern Ocean regions. An oscillation between subtropical and higher latitudes in the North Pacific is clear. Comparison with barotropic simulations indicates that, on basin scales, seasonal Pb variability is related to barotropic dynamics and the seasonal cycle in Ekman pumping, and results from a small, net residual in mass divergence from the balance between Ekman and Sverdrup flows.

Estimates of Eastern Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures During the Pliocene From Carbonate 'Clumped Isotope' Thermometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiagarajan, N.; Tripati, A.; Eiler, J.

2007-12-01

The early Pliocene (5 to 3 Ma) was an interval in Earth history that was globally warmer than the present; thus, study of the details of Pliocene climate can provide insights into the dynamics of warm climates. There are two competing models of the temperature structure of the tropical Pacific upper-ocean during the early Pliocene: the dynamical 'ocean thermostat' model [1,2] and the 'El Padre' (or permanent 'El Nino') model [3], each of which predict zonal temperature gradients and mean conditions in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP), and which differ markedly from one another in these predictions. The dynamical 'ocean thermostat' model predicts an increased temperature contrast between the Western Equatorial Pacific (WEP) and EEP, enhanced thermocline tilt and intensified upwelling under warmer conditions. In contrast, the 'El Padre' model postulates a collapse of the zonal temperature gradient, reduced thermocline tilt and a reduction in upwelling and/or warmer temperatures of upwelled waters. Existing reconstructions of tropical temperatures produce WEP sea surface temperatures which agree with each other, but yield very different results in the EEP [4,5]. We have reconstructed EEP sea surface temperatures at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 847 using a few samples spanning key intervals of the last 6 million years using carbonate clumped isotope thermometer [6,7,8]. This technique is based on the temperature dependence of the abundances of 13C-18O bonds in carbonate minerals. Initial measurements of planktonic foraminifera and coccoliths from ODP Site 847 indicate cool EEP sea surface temperatures, supporting models of Pliocene climate that have enhanced zonal temperature gradients, relative to modern. Analyses of Globigerinoides sacculifer (with sac) from sediments indicate calcification temperatures of 20.3°C ± 0.1°C and seawater δ18O values of -0.8‰ ± 0.1‰ from ~6.1 to 5.1 million years ago. Measurements of a mixed coccolith assemblage from the fine fraction of 5.6 Ma sediments show calcification temperatures of 20.4°C ± 2.3°C and seawater δ18O values of -1.4‰ ± 0.6‰. G. sacculifer (with sac) and mixed coccoliths from 1.4 Ma sediments yield calcification temperatures of 22.3°C ± 2.5°C and seawater δ18O values of 1.7‰ ± 0.7‰, and 19.4°C ± 1.8°C and seawater δ18O values of 0.4‰ ± 0.5‰, respectively. Our preliminary findings are consistent with the 'dynamical ocean thermostat' model. [1] Clement, A., et al., 1996, An Ocean Dynamical Thermostat, J. of Clim., 9, 2190-2196. [2] Cane, M., et al., 1997, Twentieth-Century Sea Surface Temperature Trends, Science, 957-960. [3] Fedorov, A., et al., 2006, The Pliocene Paradox (Mechanisms for a permanent El Nino), Science, 312, 1437-1443. [4] Rickaby, R. and Halloran, P., 2005, Cool La Nina during the warmth of the Pliocene?, Science, 307, 1948-1953. [5] Wara, M., et al. ,2005, Permanent El Nino-like conditions during the Pliocene Warm Period, Science, 309, 758-761. [6] Ghosh, P., et al., 2006, 13C-18O bonds in carbonate minerals: A new kind of paleothermometer, GCA, 70, 1439-1456. [7] Eiler, J. and Tripati, A., 2007, 'Clumped isotope' thermometry in benthic foraminifera and ostracods: A novel tool for reconstructing deep-ocean temperatures. Fall AGU. [8] Tripati, A., et al. 2007, 'Carbonate `clumped isotope' thermometry in planktonic foraminifera and coccoliths. Fall AGU.

Lead isotope relations in oceanic Ridge basalts from the Juan de Fuca-Gorda Ridge area N.E. Pacific Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Church, S.E.; Tatsumoto, M.

1975-01-01

Lead isotopic analyses of a suite of basaltic rocks from the Juan de Fuca-Gorda Ridge and nearby seamounts confirm an isotopically heterogeneous mantle known since 1966. The process of mixing during partial melting of a heterogeneous mantle necessarily produces linear data arrays that can be interpreted as secondary isochrons. Moreover, the position of the entire lead isotope array, with respect to the geochron, requires that U/Pb and Th/Pb values are progressively increased over the age of the earth. Partial melting theory also dictates analogous behavior for the other incompatible trace elements. This process explains not only the LIL element character of MOR basalts, but also duplicates the spread of radiogenic lead data collected from alkali-rich oceanic basalts. This dynamic, open-system model of lead isotopic and chemical evolution of the mantle is believed to be the direct result of tectonic flow and convective overturn within the mantle and is compatible with geophysical models of a dynamic earth. ?? 1975 Springer-Verlag.

Moisture origin and transport processes in Colombia, northern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoyos, I.; Dominguez, F.; Cañón-Barriga, J.; Martínez, J. A.; Nieto, R.; Gimeno, L.; Dirmeyer, P. A.

2018-02-01

We assess the spatial structure of moisture flux divergence, regional moisture sources and transport processes over Colombia, in northern South America. Using three independent methods the dynamic recycling model (DRM), FLEXPART and the Quasi-isentropic back-trajectory (QIBT) models we quantify the moisture sources that contribute to precipitation over the region. We find that moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and terrestrial recycling are the most important sources of moisture for Colombia, highlighting the importance of the Orinoco and Amazon basins as regional providers of atmospheric moisture. The results show the influence of long-range cross-equatorial flow from the Atlantic Ocean into the target region and the role of the study area as a passage of moisture into South America. We also describe the seasonal moisture transport mechanisms of the well-known low-level westerly and Caribbean jets that originate in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea, respectively. We find that these dynamical systems play an important role in the convergence of moisture over western Colombia.

From the front

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Price, Stephen

The causes of recent dynamic thinning of Greenland's outlet glaciers have been debated. Realistic simulations suggest that changes at the marine fronts of these glaciers are to blame, implying that dynamic thinning will cease once the glaciers retreat to higher ground. For the last decade, many outlet glaciers in Greenland that terminate in the ocean have accelerated, thinned, and retreated. To explain these dynamic changes, two hypotheses have been discussed. Atmospheric warming has increased surface melting and may also have increased the amount of meltwater reaching the glacier bed, increasing lubrication at the base and hence the rate of glaciermore » sliding. Alternatively, a change in the delicate balance of forces where the glacier fronts meet the ocean could trigger the changes. Faezeh Nick and colleagues5 present ice-sheet modeling experiments that mimic the observations on Helheim glacier, East Greenland, and suggest that the dynamic behaviour of outlet glaciers follows from perturbations at their marine fronts. Greenland's ice sheet loses mass partly through surface melting and partly through fast flowing outlet glaciers that connect the vast plateau of inland ice with the ocean. Earlier ice sheet models have failed to reproduce the dynamic variability exhibited by ice sheets over time. It has therefore not been possible to distinguish with confidence between basal lubrication from surface meltwater and changes at the glaciers' marine fronts as causes for the observed changes on Greenland's outlet glaciers. But this distinction bears directly on future sea-level rise, the raison d'etre of much of modern-day glaciology: If the recent dynamic mass loss Greenland's outlet glaciers is linked to changing atmospheric temperatures, it may continue for as long as temperatures continue to increase. On the other hand, if the source of the dynamic mass loss is a perturbation at the ice-ocean boundary, these glaciers will lose contact with that perturbation after a finite amount of thinning and retreat. Therefore, the first hypothesis implies continued retreat of outlet glaciers into the foreseeable future, while the second does not -- provided the bedrock topography prohibits a connection between the retreating glacier and the ocean. Nick and coauthors test the physical mechanisms implied in each hypotbesis in an innovative ice-flow model, and use that model to try to match a time series of observations from Helheim glacier, one of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers. Along with many observations, the simulations strongly support the contention that the recent retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers is the result of changes at their marine fronts.Further, the simulations confirm the earlier hypotheses that bedrock topography largely controlled Helheim glacier's rapid acceleration and retreat in 2004 and 2005, and its deceleration and stabilization in 2006. Finally, the current work implies that if requirements of observational data (high-resolution bed topography) and computational resources (fine computational grid resolution) can be met, improved predictive capability for ice-sheet models is attainable. With respect to the concerns raised by the IPCC, this study signals progress.« less

Ocean Model Impact Study for Coupled Hurricane Forecasting: An HFIP Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H. S. S.; Halliwell, G. R., Jr.; Tallapragada, V.; Black, P. G.; Bond, N.; Chen, S.; Cione, J.; Cronin, M. F.; Ginis, I.; Liu, B.; Miller, L.; Jayne, S. R.; Sanabia, E.; Shay, L. K.; Uhlhorn, E.; Zhu, L.

2016-02-01

Established in 2009, the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) is a ten-year project to promote accelerated improvements hurricane track and intensity forecasts (Gall et al. 2013). The Ocean Model Impact Tiger Team (OMITT) consisting of model developers and research scientists was formed as one of HFIP working groups in December 2014, to evaluate the impact of ocean coupling in tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts. The team investigated the ocean model impact in real cases for Category 3 Hurricane Edouard in 2014, using simulations and observations that were collected for different stages of the hurricane. Two Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes in 2015, Blanca and Dolores, are also of special interest. These two powerful Category 4 storms followed a similar track, however, they produced dramatically different ocean cooling, about 7.2oC for Hurricane Blanca but only about 2.7oC for Hurricane Dolores, and the corresponding intensity changes were negative 40 ms-1 and 20 ms-1, respectively. Two versions of operational HWRF and COAMPS-TC coupled prediction systems are employed in the study. These systems are configured to have 1D and 3D ocean dynamics coupled to the atmosphere. The ocean components are initialized separately with climatology, analysis and nowcast products to evaluate the impact of ocean initialization on hurricane forecasts. Real storm forecast experiments are being designed and performed with different levels of the ocean model complexity and various model configurations to study model sensitivity. In this talk, we report the OMITT activities conducted during the past year, present preliminary results of on-going investigation of air-sea interactions in the simulations, and discuss future plans toward improving coupled TC predictions. Gall, R., J. Franklin, F. Marks, E.N. Rappaport, and F. Toepfer, 2013: THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 329-343.

Dynamics of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence: Energy Conversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francisco, C. P. F.; da Silveira, I. C. A.; Campos, E. J. D.

2011-03-01

In this work, we investigated the mesoscale dynamics of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) region. Particularly, we were interested in the role of geophysical instability in the formation and development of the mesoscale features commonly observed in this region. We dynamically analyzed the results of numerical simulations of the BMC region conducted with 'Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model' (HYCOM). We quantified the effect of barotropic and baroclinic energy conversions in the modeled flow and showed the dominance of the latter in the region.

Ocean dynamics in the Nordic Seas using satellite altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pettersson, Lasse H.; Johannessen, O. M.; Olaussen, T. I.

1991-01-01

The main objective of this TOPEX/POSEIDON project is to integrate the accurately measured sea surface topography, as resolved by both TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimeters, into the above-mentioned quantitative studies of the short- and long-term variations in the mesoscale ocean dynamics of the Nordic Seas south of 66 deg N. This implies: (1) comparison and validation of the capability to resolve the general basin-scale circulation and the mesoscale variability by, respectively, radar altimeters and numerical ocean circulation models; (2) calibration and validation of the altimeter-derived sea surface topography against in situ measurements from research vessels and moorings, particularly under extreme wind and wave conditions; and (3) improved monitoring and understanding of the flux variations between the North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas, both on the short and seasonal time scales.

Scaled Tank Test Design and Results for the Aquantis 2.5 MW Ocean Current Generation Device

DOE Data Explorer

Swales, Henry; Kils, Ole; Coakley, David B.; Sites, Eric; Mayer, Tyler

2015-06-03

Aquantis 2.5 MW Ocean Current Generation Device, Tow Tank Dynamic Rig Structural Analysis Results. This is the detailed documentation for scaled device testing in a tow tank, including models, drawings, presentations, cost of energy analysis, and structural analysis. This dataset also includes specific information on drivetrain, roller bearing, blade fabrication, mooring, and rotor characteristics.

Dynamical balance in the Indonesian Seas circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burnett, William H.; Kamenkovich, Vladimir M.; Jaffe, David A.; Gordon, Arnold L.; Mellor, George L.

2000-09-01

A high resolution, four-open port, non-linear, barotropic ocean model (2D POM) is used to analyze the Indonesian Seas circulation. Both local and overall momentum balances are studied. It is shown that geostrophy holds over most of the area and that the Pacific-Indian Ocean pressure difference is essentially balanced by the resultant of pressure forces acting on the bottom.

A River Discharge Model for Coastal Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

Multidisciplinary Simulation, Estimation, and Assimilation Systems Reports in Ocean Science and Engineering MSEAS-13 A River Discharge...in this region. The island’s major rivers have correspondingly large drainage basins, and outflow from these river mouths can substantially reduce the...Multidisciplinary Simulation, Estimation, and Assimilation System (MSEAS) has been used to simulate the ocean dynamics and forecast the uncertainty

Visualizing characteristics of ocean data collected during the Shuttle Imaging Radar-B experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tilley, David G.

1991-01-01

Topographic measurements of sea surface elevation collected by the Surface Contour Radar (SCR) during NASA's Shuttle Imaging Radar (SIR-B) experiment are plotted as three dimensional surface plots to observe wave height variance along the track of a P-3 aircraft. Ocean wave spectra were computed from rotating altimeter measurements acquired by the Radar Ocean Wave Spectrometer (ROWS). Fourier power spectra computed from SIR-B synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of the ocean are compared to ROWS surface wave spectra. Fourier inversion of SAR spectra, after subtraction of spectral noise and modeling of wave height modulation, yields topography similar to direct measurements made by SCR. Visual perspectives on the SCR and SAR ocean data are compared. Threshold distinctions between surface elevation and texture modulations of SAR data are considered within the context of a dynamic statistical model of rough surface scattering. The result of these endeavors is insight as to the physical mechanism governing the imaging of ocean waves with SAR.

Sea-ice dynamics strongly promote Snowball Earth initiation and destabilize tropical sea-ice margins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, A.; Abbot, D. S.

2012-12-01

The Snowball Earth bifurcation, or runaway ice-albedo feedback, is defined for particular boundary conditions by a critical CO2 and a critical sea-ice cover (SI), both of which are essential for evaluating hypotheses related to Neoproterozoic glaciations. Previous work has shown that the Snowball Earth bifurcation, denoted as (CO2, SI)*, differs greatly among climate models. Here, we study the effect of bare sea-ice albedo, sea-ice dynamics and ocean heat transport on (CO2, SI)* in the atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM with Marinoan (~ 635 Ma) continents and solar insolation (94% of modern). In its standard setup, ECHAM5/MPI-OM initiates a~Snowball Earth much more easily than other climate models at (CO2, SI)* ≈ (500 ppm, 55%). Replacing the model's standard bare sea-ice albedo of 0.75 by a much lower value of 0.45, we find (CO2, SI)* ≈ (204 ppm, 70%). This is consistent with previous work and results from net evaporation and local melting near the sea-ice margin. When we additionally disable sea-ice dynamics, we find that the Snowball Earth bifurcation can be pushed even closer to the equator and occurs at a hundred times lower CO2: (CO2, SI)* ≈ (2 ppm, 85%). Therefore, the simulation of sea-ice dynamics in ECHAM5/MPI-OM is a dominant determinant of its high critical CO2 for Snowball initiation relative to other models. Ocean heat transport has no effect on the critical sea-ice cover and only slightly decreases the critical CO2. For disabled sea-ice dynamics, the state with 85% sea-ice cover is stabilized by the Jormungand mechanism and shares characteristics with the Jormungand climate states. However, there is no indication of the Jormungand bifurcation and hysteresis in ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The state with 85% sea-ice cover therefore is a soft Snowball state rather than a true Jormungand state. Overall, our results demonstrate that differences in sea-ice dynamics schemes can be at least as important as differences in sea-ice albedo for causing the spread in climate models' estimates of the Snowball Earth bifurcation. A detailed understanding of Snowball Earth initiation therefore requires future research on sea-ice dynamics to determine which model's simulation is most realistic.

An advection-diffusion-reaction size-structured fish population dynamics model combined with a statistical parameter estimation procedure: application to the Indian ocean skipjack tuna fishery.

PubMed

Faugeras, Blaise; Maury, Olivier

2005-10-01

We develop an advection-diffusion size-structured fish population dynamics model and apply it to simulate the skipjack tuna population in the Indian Ocean. The model is fully spatialized, and movements are parameterized with oceanographical and biological data; thus it naturally reacts to environment changes. We first formulate an initial-boundary value problem and prove existence of a unique positive solution. We then discuss the numerical scheme chosen for the integration of the simulation model. In a second step we address the parameter estimation problem for such a model. With the help of automatic differentiation, we derive the adjoint code which is used to compute the exact gradient of a Bayesian cost function measuring the distance between the outputs of the model and catch and length frequency data. A sensitivity analysis shows that not all parameters can be estimated from the data. Finally twin experiments in which pertubated parameters are recovered from simulated data are successfully conducted.

About the Atlantic RTOFS

Science.gov Websites

Quadratic bottom friction coefficient: 0.003 Bottom boundary layer thickness: 10 m EMC/MMAB Information . Provide seamless boundary and initial conditions to regional ocean physical and biogeochemical models RTOFS. Their report is available here (pdf). Model Configuration The dynamical model is HYCOM. The model

Statistically accurate low-order models for uncertainty quantification in turbulent dynamical systems.

PubMed

Sapsis, Themistoklis P; Majda, Andrew J

2013-08-20

A framework for low-order predictive statistical modeling and uncertainty quantification in turbulent dynamical systems is developed here. These reduced-order, modified quasilinear Gaussian (ROMQG) algorithms apply to turbulent dynamical systems in which there is significant linear instability or linear nonnormal dynamics in the unperturbed system and energy-conserving nonlinear interactions that transfer energy from the unstable modes to the stable modes where dissipation occurs, resulting in a statistical steady state; such turbulent dynamical systems are ubiquitous in geophysical and engineering turbulence. The ROMQG method involves constructing a low-order, nonlinear, dynamical system for the mean and covariance statistics in the reduced subspace that has the unperturbed statistics as a stable fixed point and optimally incorporates the indirect effect of non-Gaussian third-order statistics for the unperturbed system in a systematic calibration stage. This calibration procedure is achieved through information involving only the mean and covariance statistics for the unperturbed equilibrium. The performance of the ROMQG algorithm is assessed on two stringent test cases: the 40-mode Lorenz 96 model mimicking midlatitude atmospheric turbulence and two-layer baroclinic models for high-latitude ocean turbulence with over 125,000 degrees of freedom. In the Lorenz 96 model, the ROMQG algorithm with just a single mode captures the transient response to random or deterministic forcing. For the baroclinic ocean turbulence models, the inexpensive ROMQG algorithm with 252 modes, less than 0.2% of the total, captures the nonlinear response of the energy, the heat flux, and even the one-dimensional energy and heat flux spectra.

Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levermann, A.; Winkelmann, R.; Nowicki, S.; Fastook, J. L.; Frieler, K.; Greve, R.; Hellmer, H. H.; Martin, M. A.; Meinshausen, M.; Mengel, M.; Payne, A. J.; Pollard, D.; Sato, T.; Timmermann, R.; Wang, W. L.; Bindschadler, R. A.

2014-08-01

The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. Basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we attempt to estimate the uncertainty range of future ice discharge from Antarctica by combining uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response. The uncertainty in the global mean temperature increase is obtained from historically constrained emulations with the MAGICC-6.0 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model. The oceanic forcing is derived from scaling of the subsurface with the atmospheric warming from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. The dynamic ice-sheet response is derived from linear response functions for basal ice-shelf melting for four different Antarctic drainage regions using experiments from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. The resulting uncertainty range for the historic Antarctic contribution to global sea-level rise from 1992 to 2011 agrees with the observed contribution for this period if we use the three ice-sheet models with an explicit representation of ice-shelf dynamics and account for the time-delayed warming of the oceanic subsurface compared to the surface air temperature. The median of the additional ice loss for the 21st century is computed to 0.07 m (66% range: 0.02-0.14 m; 90% range: 0.0-0.23 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario and 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04-0.21 m; 90% range: 0.01-0.37 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5. Assuming no time delay between the atmospheric warming and the oceanic subsurface, these values increase to 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04-0.17 m; 90% range: 0.02-0.25 m) for RCP-2.6 and 0.15 m (66% range: 0.07-0.28 m; 90% range: 0.04-0.43 m) for RCP-8.5. All probability distributions are highly skewed towards high values. The applied ice-sheet models are coarse resolution with limitations in the representation of grounding-line motion. Within the constraints of the applied methods, the uncertainty induced from different ice-sheet models is smaller than that induced by the external forcing to the ice sheets.

Sensitivity study of a dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, David M.; Mysak, Lawrence A.; Manak, Davinder K.; Oberhuber, Josef M.

1993-02-01

A numerical simulation of the seasonal sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean and the Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian seas is presented. The sea ice model is extracted from Oberhuber's (1990) coupled sea ice-mixed layer-isopycnal general circulation model and is written in spherical coordinates. The advantage of such a model over previous sea ice models is that it can be easily coupled to either global atmospheric or ocean general circulation models written in spherical coordinates. In this model, the thermodynamics are a modification of that of Parkinson and Washington (1979), while the dynamics use the full Hibler (1979) viscous-plastic rheology. Monthly thermodynamic and dynamic forcing fields for the atmosphere and ocean are specified. The simulations of the seasonal cycle of ice thickness, compactness, and velocity, for a control set of parameters, compare favorably with the known seasonal characteristics of these fields. A sensitivity study of the control simulation of the seasonal sea ice cover is presented. The sensitivity runs are carried out under three different themes, namely, numerical conditions, parameter values, and physical processes. This last theme refers to experiments in which physical processes are either newly added or completely removed from the model. Approximately 80 sensitivity runs have been performed in which a change from the control run environment has been implemented. Comparisons have been made between the control run and a particular sensitivity run based on time series of the seasonal cycle of the domain-averaged ice thickness, compactness, areal coverage, and kinetic energy. In addition, spatially varying fields of ice thickness, compactness, velocity, and surface temperature for each season are presented for selected experiments. A brief description and discussion of the more interesting experiments are presented. The simulation of the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice cover is shown to be robust.

Dynamical ocean-atmospheric drivers of floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Hall, Julia

2014-05-01

The present study contributes to a better depiction and understanding of the "facial expression" of the Earth in terms of dynamical ocean-atmospheric processes associated to both floods and droughts. For this purpose, the study focuses on nonlinear dynamical and statistical analysis of ocean-atmospheric mechanisms contributing to hydrological extremes, broadening the analytical hydro-meteorological perspective of floods and hydrological droughts to driving mechanisms and feedbacks at the global scale. In doing so, the analysis of the climate-related causality of hydrological extremes is not limited to the synoptic situation in the region where the events take place. Rather, it goes further in the train of causality, peering into dynamical interactions between planetary-scale ocean and atmospheric processes that drive weather regimes and influence the antecedent and event conditions associated to hydrological extremes. In order to illustrate the approach, dynamical ocean-atmospheric drivers are investigated for a selection of floods and droughts. Despite occurring in different regions with different timings, common underlying mechanisms are identified for both kinds of hydrological extremes. For instance, several analysed events are seen to have resulted from a large-scale atmospheric situation consisting on standing planetary waves encircling the northern hemisphere. These correspond to wider vortices locked in phase, resulting in wider and more persistent synoptic weather patterns, i.e. with larger spatial and temporal coherence. A standing train of anticyclones and depressions thus encircled the mid and upper latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The stationary regime of planetary waves occurs when the mean eastward zonal flow decreases up to a point in which it no longer exceeds the westward phase propagation of the Rossby waves produced by the latitude-varying Coriolis effect. The ocean-atmospheric causes for this behaviour and consequences on hydrological extremes are investigated and the findings supported with spatiotemporal geostatistical analysis and nonlinear geophysical models. Overall, the study provides a three-fold contribution to the research on hydrological extremes: Firstly, it improves their physical attribution by better understanding the dynamical reasons behind the meteorological drivers. Secondly, it brings out fundamental early warning signs for potential hydrological extremes, by bringing out global ocean-atmospheric features that manifest themselves much earlier than the regional weather patterns. Thirdly, it provides tools for addressing and understanding hydrological regime changes at wider spatiotemporal scales, by providing links to planetary-scale dynamical processes that play a crucial role in multi-decadal global climate variability.

Ocean-atmosphere dynamics during Hurricane Ida and Nor'Ida: An application of the coupled ocean-;atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olabarrieta, Maitane; Warner, John C.; Armstrong, Brandy N.; Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying

2012-01-01

The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor'Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor'easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor'Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness-based parameterization (OOST) provided the best results for wind and wave growth prediction. However, the best agreement between the measured (CODAR) and computed surface currents and storm surge values was obtained with the wave steepness-based roughness parameterization (TY2001), although the differences obtained with respect to DGHQ were not significant. The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) fields on the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics was examined; in particular, we evaluated how the SST affects wind wave generation, surface currents and storm surges. The integrated hydrograph and integrated wave height, parameters that are highly correlated with the storm damage potential, were found to be highly sensitive to the ocean surface roughness parameterization.

Ocean-atmosphere dynamics during Hurricane Ida and Nor'Ida: An application of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olabarrieta, Maitane; Warner, John C.; Armstrong, Brandy N.; Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying

2012-01-01

The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor’Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor’easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor’Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness-based parameterization (OOST) provided the best results for wind and wave growth prediction. However, the best agreement between the measured (CODAR) and computed surface currents and storm surge values was obtained with the wave steepness-based roughness parameterization (TY2001), although the differences obtained with respect to DGHQ were not significant. The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) fields on the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics was examined; in particular, we evaluated how the SST affects wind wave generation, surface currents and storm surges. The integrated hydrograph and integrated wave height, parameters that are highly correlated with the storm damage potential, were found to be highly sensitive to the ocean surface roughness parameterization.

The Lithospheric Geoid as a Constraint on Plate Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, R. M.; Coblentz, D. D.

2015-12-01

100 years after Wegener's pioneering work there is still considerable debate about the dynamics of present-day plate motions. A better understanding of present-day dynamics is key to a better understanding of the supercontinent cycle. The Earth's gravity field is one of the primary data sets to help constrain horizontal density contrasts, and hence plate dynamic forces. Previous work has shown that the global average for the geoid step up from old oceanic lithosphere across passive continental margins to stable continental lithosphere is about 6-9m, and the global average for the geoid anomaly associated with cooling oceanic lithosphere (the so-called "ridge push") is 10-12m. The ridge geoid anomaly corresponds to a net force of ~3x1012N/m (averaged over the thickness of the lithosphere) due to 'ridge push.' However, for individual continental margins and mid-ocean ridge systems, there is considerable variation in the geoid step and geoid anomaly and consequently the associated forces contributing to the stress field. We explore the variation in geoid step across passive continental margins looking for correlations with age of continental breakup (and hence place within the supercontinent cycle), hot spot tracks, continental plate velocities, long-wavelength geoid energy (that may be masking signal), and small scale convection. For mid-ocean ridges, we explore variations in geoid anomaly looking for correlations with plate spreading rates, hot spot tracks, long-wavelength geoid energy (that may be masking signal), and small scale convection. We use a band-pass spherical harmonic filter on the full geoid (e.g., EGM2008-WGS84, complete to spherical harmonic degree and order 2159) between orders 6 and 80. The evaluation of the role of spatial variations in the geoid gradient for cooling oceanic lithosphere and across the continental margin in the dynamics of the intraplate stress field requires high spatial resolution modeling. We perform a high resolution finite element analysis (~35,000 elements for a spatial resolution of approximately 50 km) for the North American plate, where previous lower resolution modeling has shown the importance of the lithospheric cooling (ridge push) force to model the broad scale stress patterns observed from the middle of the continent to the Mid-Atlantic ridge.

Ocean Tide Influences on the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padman, Laurie; Siegfried, Matthew R.; Fricker, Helen A.

2018-03-01

Ocean tides are the main source of high-frequency variability in the vertical and horizontal motion of ice sheets near their marine margins. Floating ice shelves, which occupy about three quarters of the perimeter of Antarctica and the termini of four outlet glaciers in northern Greenland, rise and fall in synchrony with the ocean tide. Lateral motion of floating and grounded portions of ice sheets near their marine margins can also include a tidal component. These tide-induced signals provide insight into the processes by which the oceans can affect ice sheet mass balance and dynamics. In this review, we summarize in situ and satellite-based measurements of the tidal response of ice shelves and grounded ice, and spatial variability of ocean tide heights and currents around the ice sheets. We review sensitivity of tide heights and currents as ocean geometry responds to variations in sea level, ice shelf thickness, and ice sheet mass and extent. We then describe coupled ice-ocean models and analytical glacier models that quantify the effect of ocean tides on lower-frequency ice sheet mass loss and motion. We suggest new observations and model developments to improve the representation of tides in coupled models that are used to predict future ice sheet mass loss and the associated contribution to sea level change. The most critical need is for new data to improve maps of bathymetry, ice shelf draft, spatial variability of the drag coefficient at the ice-ocean interface, and higher-resolution models with improved representation of tidal energy sinks.

Ocean processes at the Antarctic continental slope

PubMed Central

Heywood, Karen J.; Schmidtko, Sunke; Heuzé, Céline; Kaiser, Jan; Jickells, Timothy D.; Queste, Bastien Y.; Stevens, David P.; Wadley, Martin; Thompson, Andrew F.; Fielding, Sophie; Guihen, Damien; Creed, Elizabeth; Ridley, Jeff K.; Smith, Walker

2014-01-01

The Antarctic continental shelves and slopes occupy relatively small areas, but, nevertheless, are important for global climate, biogeochemical cycling and ecosystem functioning. Processes of water mass transformation through sea ice formation/melting and ocean–atmosphere interaction are key to the formation of deep and bottom waters as well as determining the heat flux beneath ice shelves. Climate models, however, struggle to capture these physical processes and are unable to reproduce water mass properties of the region. Dynamics at the continental slope are key for correctly modelling climate, yet their small spatial scale presents challenges both for ocean modelling and for observational studies. Cross-slope exchange processes are also vital for the flux of nutrients such as iron from the continental shelf into the mixed layer of the Southern Ocean. An iron-cycling model embedded in an eddy-permitting ocean model reveals the importance of sedimentary iron in fertilizing parts of the Southern Ocean. Ocean gliders play a key role in improving our ability to observe and understand these small-scale processes at the continental shelf break. The Gliders: Excellent New Tools for Observing the Ocean (GENTOO) project deployed three Seagliders for up to two months in early 2012 to sample the water to the east of the Antarctic Peninsula in unprecedented temporal and spatial detail. The glider data resolve small-scale exchange processes across the shelf-break front (the Antarctic Slope Front) and the front's biogeochemical signature. GENTOO demonstrated the capability of ocean gliders to play a key role in a future multi-disciplinary Southern Ocean observing system. PMID:24891389

A Pacific Ocean general circulation model for satellite data assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Y.; Halpern, D.; Mechoso, C. R.

1991-01-01

A tropical Pacific Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) to be used in satellite data assimilation studies is described. The transfer of the OGCM from a CYBER-205 at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to a CRAY-2 at NASA's Ames Research Center is documented. Two 3-year model integrations from identical initial conditions but performed on those two computers are compared. The model simulations are very similar to each other, as expected, but the simulations performed with the higher-precision CRAY-2 is smoother than that with the lower-precision CYBER-205. The CYBER-205 and CRAY-2 use 32 and 64-bit mantissa arithmetic, respectively. The major features of the oceanic circulation in the tropical Pacific, namely the North Equatorial Current, the North Equatorial Countercurrent, the South Equatorial Current, and the Equatorial Undercurrent, are realistically produced and their seasonal cycles are described. The OGCM provides a powerful tool for study of tropical oceans and for the assimilation of satellite altimetry data.

Dynamic energy budget modeling reveals the potential of future growth and calcification for the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi in an acidified ocean.

PubMed

Muller, Erik B; Nisbet, Roger M

2014-06-01

Ocean acidification is likely to impact the calcification potential of marine organisms. In part due to the covarying nature of the ocean carbonate system components, including pH and CO2 and CO3(2-) levels, it remains largely unclear how each of these components may affect calcification rates quantitatively. We develop a process-based bioenergetic model that explains how several components of the ocean carbonate system collectively affect growth and calcification rates in Emiliania huxleyi, which plays a major role in marine primary production and biogeochemical carbon cycling. The model predicts that under the IPCC A2 emission scenario, its growth and calcification potential will have decreased by the end of the century, although those reductions are relatively modest. We anticipate that our model will be relevant for many other marine calcifying organisms, and that it can be used to improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on marine systems. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of the Mesoscale Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling on the Peru-Chile Ocean Dynamics: The Current-Induced Wind Stress Modulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oerder, V.; Colas, F.; Echevin, V.; Masson, S.; Lemarié, F.

2018-02-01

The ocean dynamical responses to the surface current-wind stress interaction at the oceanic mesoscale are investigated in the South-East Pacific using a high-resolution regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Two simulations are compared: one includes the surface current in the wind stress computation while the other does not. In the coastal region, absolute wind velocities are different between the two simulations but the wind stress remains very similar. As a consequence, the mean regional oceanic circulation is almost unchanged. On the contrary, the mesoscale activity is strongly reduced when taking into account the effect of the surface current on the wind stress. This is caused by a weakening of the eddy kinetic energy generation near the coast by the wind work and to intensified offshore eddy damping. We show that, above coherent eddies, the current-stress interaction generates eddy damping through Ekman pumping and eddy kinetic energy dissipation through wind work. This alters significantly the coherent eddy vertical structures compared with the control simulation, weakening the temperature and vorticity anomalies and increasing strongly the vertical velocity anomalies associated to eddies.

NEMOTAM: tangent and adjoint models for the ocean modelling platform NEMO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidard, A.; Bouttier, P.-A.; Vigilant, F.

2015-04-01

Tangent linear and adjoint models (TAMs) are efficient tools to analyse and to control dynamical systems such as NEMO. They can be involved in a large range of applications such as sensitivity analysis, parameter estimation or the computation of characteristic vectors. A TAM is also required by the 4D-Var algorithm, which is one of the major methods in data assimilation. This paper describes the development and the validation of the tangent linear and adjoint model for the NEMO ocean modelling platform (NEMOTAM). The diagnostic tools that are available alongside NEMOTAM are detailed and discussed, and several applications are also presented.

NEMOTAM: tangent and adjoint models for the ocean modelling platform NEMO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidard, A.; Bouttier, P.-A.; Vigilant, F.

2014-10-01

The tangent linear and adjoint model (TAM) are efficient tools to analyse and to control dynamical systems such as NEMO. They can be involved in a large range of applications such as sensitivity analysis, parameter estimation or the computation of characteristics vectors. TAM is also required by the 4-D-VAR algorithm which is one of the major method in Data Assimilation. This paper describes the development and the validation of the Tangent linear and Adjoint Model for the NEMO ocean modelling platform (NEMOTAM). The diagnostic tools that are available alongside NEMOTAM are detailed and discussed and several applications are also presented.

Eddy-resolving 1/10° model of the World Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrayev, R. A.; Khabeev, R. N.; Ushakov, K. V.

2012-02-01

The first results on simulating the intra-annual variability of the World Ocean circulation by use of the eddy-resolving model are considered. For this purpose, a model of the World Ocean with a 1/10° horizontal resolution and 49 vertical levels was developed (a 1/10 × 1/10 × 49 model of the World Ocean). This model is based on the traditional system of three-dimensional equations of the large-scale dynamics of the ocean and boundary conditions with an explicit allowance for water fluxes on the free surface of the ocean. The equations are written in the tripolar coordinate system. The numerical method is based on the separation of the barotropic and baroclinic components of the solution. Discretization in time is implemented using explicit schemes allowing effective parallelization for a large number of processors. The model uses the sub-models of the boundary layer of the atmosphere and the submodel of sea-ice thermodynamics. The model of the World Ocean was developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS) and the P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanogy (IO RAS). The formulation of the problem of simulating the intra-annual variability of thermohydrodynamic processes of the World Ocean and the parameterizations that were used are considered. In the numerical experiment, the temporal evolution of the atmospheric effect is determined by the normal annual cycle according to the conditions of the international Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiment (CORE-I). The calculation was carried out on a multiprocessor computer with distributed memory; 1601 computational cores were used. The presented analysis demonstrates that the obtained results are quite satisfactory when compared to the results that were obtained by other eddy-resolving models of the global ocean. The analysis of the model solution is, to a larger extent, of a descriptive character. A detailed analysis of the results is to be presented in following works. This experiment is a significant first step in developing the eddy-resolving model of the World Ocean.

Revisiting the Processes That Determine Wintertime Intraseasonal SST Variability in the Thermocline Ridge of the Tropical South Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, W.; Li, Y.; Shinoda, T.; Wang, C.; Ravichandran, M.; Wang, J. W.

2014-12-01

Intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR) induced by boreal wintertime Madden-Julian oscillations (MJOs) is investigated by performing a series of OGCM experiments with improved model configuration and the recently available high quality satellite forcing fields. The impact of the ocean interannual variation of the thermocline depth -represented by the depth of 20C isotherm (D20) - in the SCTR is also assessed. The OGCM main run solution agrees well with the observations. The results show that for the 2001-2011 period, surface shortwave radiation (SWR), turbulent heat fluxes associated with wind speed, and wind stress-driven ocean dynamical processes are all important in causing the MJO-related intraseasonal SST variability in the SCTR region. Overall, forcing by SWR contributes ~31%, and forcing by winds (via both surface turbulent heat flux and ocean dynamics) contributes ~62%. The contribution of turbulent heat flux associated with wind speed is ~39% and that of wind-stress driven ocean dynamics is ~23%. The contribution of ocean dynamics, however, is considerably larger during strong ("prime") MJO events under "strong" thermocline condition. The overall effect of interannual variability of D20 on intraseasonal SST during 2001-2011 is significant in the eastern part of the SCTR (70E-85E), where the intraseasonal SST amplitudes are strengthened by about 20%. In general, a shallower/deeper SCTR favors larger/smaller SST responses to the MJO forcing. In the eastern SCTR, both the heat flux forcing and entrainment are greatly amplified under the strong SCTR condition, but only slightly suppressed under the weak SCTR condition, leading to an overall strengthening effect on intraseasonal SST variability.

Diagnosing Air-Sea Interactions on Intraseasonal Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeMott, C. A.

2014-12-01

What is the role of ocean coupling in the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)? Consensus thinking holds that the essential physics of the MJO involve interactions between convection, atmospheric wave dynamics, and boundary layer and free troposphere moisture. However, many modeling studies demonstrate improved MJO simulation when an atmosphere-only general circulation model (AGCM) is coupled to an ocean model, so feedbacks from the ocean are probably not negligible. Assessing the importance and processes of these feedbacks is challenging for at least two reasons. First, observations of the MJO only sample the fully coupled ocean-atmosphere system; there is no "uncoupled" MJO in nature. Second, the practice of analyzing the MJO in uncoupled and coupled GCMs (CGCMs) involves using imperfect tools to study the problem. Although MJO simulation is improving in many models, shortcomings remain in both AGCMs and CGCMs, making it difficult to determine if changes brought about through coupling reflect critical air-sea interactions or are simply part of the collective idiosyncracies of a given model. For the atmosphere, ocean feedbacks from intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variations are communicated through their effects on surface fluxes of heat and moisture. This presentation suggests a set of analysis tools for diagnosing the impact of an interactive ocean on surface latent and sensible heat fluxes, including their mean, variance, spectral characteristics, and phasing with respect to wind, SST, and MJO convection. The diagnostics are demonstrated with application to several CMIP5 models, and reveal a variety of responses to coupled ocean feedbacks.

Evaluation of vertical coordinate and vertical mixing algorithms in the HYbrid-Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halliwell, George R.

Vertical coordinate and vertical mixing algorithms included in the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) are evaluated in low-resolution climatological simulations of the Atlantic Ocean. The hybrid vertical coordinates are isopycnic in the deep ocean interior, but smoothly transition to level (pressure) coordinates near the ocean surface, to sigma coordinates in shallow water regions, and back again to level coordinates in very shallow water. By comparing simulations to climatology, the best model performance is realized using hybrid coordinates in conjunction with one of the three available differential vertical mixing models: the nonlocal K-Profile Parameterization, the NASA GISS level 2 turbulence closure, and the Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 turbulence closure. Good performance is also achieved using the quasi-slab Price-Weller-Pinkel dynamical instability model. Differences among these simulations are too small relative to other errors and biases to identify the "best" vertical mixing model for low-resolution climate simulations. Model performance deteriorates slightly when the Kraus-Turner slab mixed layer model is used with hybrid coordinates. This deterioration is smallest when solar radiation penetrates beneath the mixed layer and when shear instability mixing is included. A simulation performed using isopycnic coordinates to emulate the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM), which uses Kraus-Turner mixing without penetrating shortwave radiation and shear instability mixing, demonstrates that the advantages of switching from isopycnic to hybrid coordinates and including more sophisticated turbulence closures outweigh the negative numerical effects of maintaining hybrid vertical coordinates.

Subtropical high predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions.

PubMed

Wang, Bin; Xiang, Baoqiang; Lee, June-Yi

2013-02-19

Monsoon rainfall and tropical storms (TSs) impose great impacts on society, yet their seasonal predictions are far from successful. The western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) is a prime circulation system affecting East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and western North Pacific TS activities, but the sources of its variability and predictability have not been established. Here we show that the WPSH variation faithfully represents fluctuations of EASM strength (r = -0.92), the total TS days over the subtropical western North Pacific (r = -0.81), and the total number of TSs impacting East Asian coasts (r = -0.76) during 1979-2009. Our numerical experiment results establish that the WPSH variation is primarily controlled by central Pacific cooling/warming and a positive atmosphere-ocean feedback between the WPSH and the Indo-Pacific warm pool oceans. With a physically based empirical model and the state-of-the-art dynamical models, we demonstrate that the WPSH is highly predictable; this predictability creates a promising way for prediction of monsoon and TS. The predictions using the WPSH predictability not only yields substantially improved skills in prediction of the EASM rainfall, but also enables skillful prediction of the TS activities that the current dynamical models fail. Our findings reveal that positive WPSH-ocean interaction can provide a source of climate predictability and highlight the importance of subtropical dynamics in understanding monsoon and TS predictability.

Subtropical High predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions

PubMed Central

Wang, Bin; Xiang, Baoqiang; Lee, June-Yi

2013-01-01

Monsoon rainfall and tropical storms (TSs) impose great impacts on society, yet their seasonal predictions are far from successful. The western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) is a prime circulation system affecting East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and western North Pacific TS activities, but the sources of its variability and predictability have not been established. Here we show that the WPSH variation faithfully represents fluctuations of EASM strength (r = –0.92), the total TS days over the subtropical western North Pacific (r = –0.81), and the total number of TSs impacting East Asian coasts (r = –0.76) during 1979–2009. Our numerical experiment results establish that the WPSH variation is primarily controlled by central Pacific cooling/warming and a positive atmosphere-ocean feedback between the WPSH and the Indo-Pacific warm pool oceans. With a physically based empirical model and the state-of-the-art dynamical models, we demonstrate that the WPSH is highly predictable; this predictability creates a promising way for prediction of monsoon and TS. The predictions using the WPSH predictability not only yields substantially improved skills in prediction of the EASM rainfall, but also enables skillful prediction of the TS activities that the current dynamical models fail. Our findings reveal that positive WPSH–ocean interaction can provide a source of climate predictability and highlight the importance of subtropical dynamics in understanding monsoon and TS predictability. PMID:23341624

Oxygen cycling in the northern Benguela Upwelling System: Modelling oxygen sources and sinks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Martin; Eggert, Anja

2016-12-01

This paper elucidates the oxygen dynamics in the northern Benguela Upwelling System by means of process oriented, numerical modelling. Owing to the complex physical-biological interaction in this system, a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model is required to grasp the various aspects of the oxygen dynamics. We used high-resolution atmospheric fields derived from observations to force our model, available since 1999. The model results represent a 15 years, consistent data set of realistic hydrographic and ecosystem variables, including oxygen distribution patterns. After a concise description of the main aspects of the model, we use the model data to analyse the components contributing to the oxygen dynamics, namely, the ocean circulation, the exchange between ocean and atmosphere as well as the local biogeochemical oxygen cycling in the system. We thoroughly validate the model with available field observations and remote sensing data. The strengths of coastal upwelling, which controls the nutrient supply to the euphotic zone, as well as the poleward undercurrent that carries oxygen and nutrients to the shelf in the northern Benguela Upwelling System are well reproduced in the model. Among the biological oxygen sinks, mineralisation in the sediment, respiration of zooplankton and nitrification in the water column are important. We also found that vertical migration of zooplankton in response to the oxygen conditions provides a regulating feedback, which may prevent a complete deoxygenation of suboxic waters. As long as oxygen or nitrate are available in the bottom waters, the activities of chemolithoautotrophic sulphur bacteria on the sediment surface keep the redoxcline within the sediment and prevent the release of hydrogen sulphide into the water column. By horizontal integration of the simulated ocean-atmosphere oxygen flux, it can be shown that the Kunene upwelling cell between 16 ° S and 18 ° S is a boundary between the equatorial ocean, characterise by weak oxygen release to the atmosphere, and the subtropical Benguela Upwelling System governed by an enhanced and seasonal varying flux. Furthermore, a comparison of oxygen fluxes controlled by physical transport versus biogeochemical processes shows that the physical processes dominate in the northern Benguela Upwelling System.

Assessment of ocean models in Mediterranean Sea against altimetry and gravimetry measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Uebbing, Bernd; Kusche, Jürgen

2017-04-01

This work aims at assessing in a regional study in the Mediterranean Sea the agreement between ocean model outputs and satellite altimetry and satellite gravity observations. Satellite sea level change are from altimeter data made available by the Sea Level Climate Change Initiative (SLCCI) and from satellite gravity data made available by GRACE. We consider two ocean simulations not assimilating satellite altimeter data and one ocean model reanalysis assimilating satellite altimetry. Ocean model simulations can provide some insight on the ocean variability, but they are affected by biases due to errors in model formulation, specification of initial states and forcing, and are not directly constrained by observations. Their trend can be quite different from the altimetric observations due to surface radiation biases, however they are physically consistent. Ocean reanalyses are the combination of ocean models, atmospheric forcing fluxes and ocean observations via data assimilation methods and have the potential to provide more accurate information than observation-only or model-only based ocean estimations. They will be closer to altimetry at long and short timescales, but assimilation may destroy mass consistency. We use two ocean simulations which are part of the Med-CORDEX initiative (https://www.medcordex.eu). The first is the CNRM-RCM4 fully-coupled Regional Climate System Model (RCMS) simulation developed at METEOFRANCE for 1980-2012. The second is the PROTHEUS standalone hindcast simulation developed at ENEA and covers the interval 1960-2012. The third model is the regional model MEDSEA_REANALYSIS_PHIS_006_004 assimilating satellite altimeter data (http://marine.copernicus.eu/) and available over 1987-2014. Comparison at basin and regional scale are made. First the steric, thermo-steric, halosteric and dynamic components output of the models are compared. Then the total sea level given by the models is compared to the altimeter observations. Finally the mass component derived from GRACE is compared to the difference between the total sea level and the steric component. We observe large differences between the ocean models and discuss the model which best agrees with the CCI sea level product at short and at longer timescales. We consider departure in sea level trends, inter-annual variability and seasonal cycle. The work is part of the Sea Level Climate Change Initiative project.

Response of the Antarctic ice sheet to ocean forcing using the POPSICLES coupled ice sheet-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, D. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Price, S. F.; Cornford, S. L.; Maltrud, M. E.; Ng, E. G.; Collins, W.

2014-12-01

We present the response of the continental Antarctic ice sheet to sub-shelf-melt forcing derived from POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period 1990 to 2010. Simulations are performed at 0.1 degree (~5 km) ocean resolution and ice sheet resolution as fine as 500 m using adaptive mesh refinement. A comparison of fully-coupled and comparable standalone ice-sheet model results demonstrates the importance of two-way coupling between the ice sheet and the ocean. The POPSICLES model couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), and the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012). BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement to fully resolve dynamically-important regions like grounding lines and employs a momentum balance similar to the vertically-integrated formulation of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009). Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests like MISMIP3D (Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). A companion presentation, "Present-day circum-Antarctic simulations using the POPSICLES coupled land ice-ocean model" in session C027 describes the ocean-model perspective of this work, while we focus on the response of the ice sheet and on details of the model. The figure shows the BISICLES-computed vertically-integrated ice velocity field about 1 month into a 20-year coupled Antarctic run. Groundling lines are shown in green.

Tropical Atlantic Impacts on the Decadal Climate Variability of the Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Xie, S. P.; Gille, S. T.; Yoo, C.

2015-12-01

Previous studies revealed atmospheric bridges between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. In particular, several recent works indicate that the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) may contribute to the climate variability over the equatorial Pacific. Inspired by these studies, our work aims at investigating the impact of the tropical Atlantic on the entire tropical climate system, and uncovering the physical dynamics under these tropical teleconnections. We first performed a 'pacemaker' simulation by restoring the satellite era tropical Atlantic SST changes in a fully coupled model - the CESM1. Results reveal that the Atlantic warming heats the Indo-Western Pacific and cools the Eastern Pacific, enhances the Walker circulation and drives the subsurface Pacific to a La Niña mode, contributing to 60-70% of the above tropical changes in the past 30 years. The same pan-tropical teleconnections have been validated by the statistics of observations and 106 CMIP5 control simulations. We then used a hierarchy of atmospheric and oceanic models with different complexities, to single out the roles of atmospheric dynamics, atmosphere-ocean fluxes, and oceanic dynamics in these teleconnections. With these simulations we established a two-step mechanism as shown in the schematic figure: 1) Atlantic warming generates an atmospheric deep convection and induces easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-Western Pacific in the form of Kelvin waves, and westerly wind anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific as Rossby waves, in line with Gill's solution. This circulation changes warms the Indo-Western Pacific and cools the Eastern Pacific with the wind-evaporation-SST effect, forming a temperature gradient over the Indo-Pacific basins. 2) The temperature gradient further generates a secondary atmospheric deep convection, which reinforces the easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and enhances the Walker circulation, triggering the Pacific to a La Niña mode with Bjerknes ocean dynamical feedback. This mechanism contributes to the understanding of the global decadal climate variability and predictability. In particular, Atlantic contributes to the Eastern Pacific cooling, which is considered as an important source of the recent global warming hiatus.

Dynamics, Heat Transport, Spectral Composition and Acoustic Signatures of Mesoscale Variability in the Ocean

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

Eastward background flow EOS Equation of state GDEM Generalized Digital Environmental Model GRB Growth Rate Balance model HPCMP High Performance...the Naval Research Lab (NRL) Generalized Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ). This provides a realistic and detailed profile for a known turbulent

Coupled effects of vertical mixing and benthic grazing on phytoplankton populations in shallow, turbid estuaries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koseff, Jeffrey R.; Holen, Jacqueline K.; Monismith, Stephen G.; Cloern, James E.

1993-01-01

Coastal ocean waters tend to have very different patterns of phytoplankton biomass variability from the open ocean, and the connections between physical variability and phytoplankton bloom dynamics are less well established for these shallow systems. Predictions of biological responses to physical variability in these environments is inherently difficult because the recurrent seasonal patterns of mixing are complicated by aperiodic fluctuations in river discharge and the high-frequency components of tidal variability. We might expect, then, less predictable and more complex bloom dynamics in these shallow coastal systems compared with the open ocean. Given this complex and dynamic physical environment, can we develop a quantitative framework to define the physical regimes necessary for bloom inception, and can we identify the important mechanisms of physical-biological coupling that lead to the initiation and termination of blooms in estuaries and shallow coastal waters? Numerical modeling provides one approach to address these questions. Here we present results of simulation experiments with a refined version of Cloern's (1991) model in which mixing processes are treated more realistically to reflect the dynamic nature of turbulence generation in estuaries. We investigated several simple models for the turbulent mixing coefficient. We found that the addition of diurnal tidal variation to Cloern's model greatly reduces biomass growth indicating that variations of mixing on the time scale of hours are crucial. Furthermore, we found that for conditions representative of South San Francisco Bay, numerical simulations only allowed for bloom development when the water column was stratified and when minimal mixing was prescribed in the upper layer. Stratification, however, itself is not sufficient to ensure that a bloom will develop: minimal wind stirring is a further prerequisite to bloom development in shallow turbid estuaries with abundant populations of benthic suspension feeders.

Modeling dynamics of large tabular icebergs submerged in the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adcroft, A.; Stern, A. A.; Sergienko, O. V.

2017-12-01

Large tabular icebergs account for a major fraction of the ice calved from the Antarctic ice shelves, and have long lifetimes due to their size. They drift for long distances, interacting with the local ocean circulation, impacting bottom-water formation, sea-ice formation, and biological productivity in the vicinity of the icebergs. However, due to their large horizontal extent and mass, it is challenging to consistently represent large tabular icebergs in global ocean circulation models and so large tabular icebergs are not currently represented in climate models. In this study we develop a novel framework to model large tabular icebergs submerged in the ocean. In this framework, a tabular iceberg is represented by a collection of Lagrangian elements that are linked through rigid bonds. The Lagrangian elements are finite-area modifications of the point-particles used in previous studies to represent small icebergs. These elements interact with the ocean by exerting pressure on the ocean surface, and through melt water and momentum exchange. A breaking of the rigid bonds allows the model to emulate calving events (i.e. detachment of a tabular iceberg from an ice shelf), and to emulate the breaking up of tabular icebergs into smaller pieces. Idealized simulations of the calving of a tabular iceberg, subsequent drift and breakup, demonstrate the capabilities of the new framework with a promise that climate models may soon be able to represent large tabular icebergs.

Simulating PACE Global Ocean Radiances

PubMed Central

Gregg, Watson W.; Rousseaux, Cécile S.

2017-01-01

The NASA PACE mission is a hyper-spectral radiometer planned for launch in the next decade. It is intended to provide new information on ocean biogeochemical constituents by parsing the details of high resolution spectral absorption and scattering. It is the first of its kind for global applications and as such, poses challenges for design and operation. To support pre-launch mission development and assess on-orbit capabilities, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has developed a dynamic simulation of global water-leaving radiances, using an ocean model containing multiple ocean phytoplankton groups, particulate detritus, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), and chromophoric dissolved organic carbon (CDOC) along with optical absorption and scattering processes at 1 nm spectral resolution. The purpose here is to assess the skill of the dynamic model and derived global radiances. Global bias, uncertainty, and correlation are derived using available modern satellite radiances at moderate spectral resolution. Total chlorophyll, PIC, and the absorption coefficient of CDOC (aCDOC), are simultaneously assimilated to improve the fidelity of the optical constituent fields. A 5-year simulation showed statistically significant (P <0.05) comparisons of chlorophyll (r = 0.869), PIC (r = 0.868), and aCDOC (r = 0.890) with satellite data. Additionally, diatoms (r = 0.890), cyanobacteria (r = 0.732), and coccolithophores (r = 0.716) were significantly correlated with in situ data. Global assimilated distributions of optical constituents were coupled with a radiative transfer model (Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model, OASIM) to estimate normalized water-leaving radiances at 1 nm for the spectral range 250–800 nm. These unassimilated radiances were within −0.074 mW cm−2 μm1 sr−1 of MODIS-Aqua radiances at 412, 443, 488, 531, 547, and 667 nm. This difference represented a bias of −10.4% (model low). A mean correlation of 0.706 (P < 0.05) was found with global distributions of MODIS radiances. These results suggest skill in the global assimilated model and resulting radiances. The reported error characterization suggests that the global dynamical simulation can support some aspects of mission design and analysis. For example, the high spectral resolution of the simulation supports investigations of band selection. The global nature of the radiance representations supports investigations of satellite observing scenarios. Global radiances at bands not available in current and past missions support investigations of mission capability. PMID:29292403

Research Review, 1984

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1986-01-01

A variety of topics relevant to global modeling and simulation are presented. Areas of interest include: (1) analysis and forecast studies; (2) satellite observing systems; (3) analysis and forecast model development; (4) atmospheric dynamics and diagnostic studies; (5) climate/ocean-air interactions; and notes from lectures.

A three-dimensional autonomous nonlinear dynamical system modelling equatorial ocean flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionescu-Kruse, Delia

2018-04-01

We investigate a nonlinear three-dimensional model for equatorial flows, finding exact solutions that capture the most relevant geophysical features: depth-dependent currents, poleward or equatorial surface drift and a vertical mixture of upward and downward motions.

1/32° real-time global ocean prediction and value-added over 1/16° resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shriver, J. F.; Hurlburt, H. E.; Smedstad, O. M.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Rhodes, R. C.

2007-03-01

A 1/32° global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center. It started running at the Naval Oceanographic Office in near real-time on 1 Nov. 2003 and has been running daily in real-time since 1 Mar. 2005. It became an operational system on 6 March 2006, replacing the existing 1/16° system which ceased operation on 12 March 2006. Both systems use the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with assimilation of sea surface height from satellite altimeters and sea surface temperature from multi-channel satellite infrared radiometers. Real-time and archived results are available online at http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom. The 1/32° system has improvements over the earlier system that can be grouped into two categories: (1) better resolution and representation of dynamical processes and (2) design modifications. The design modifications are the result of accrued knowledge since the development of the earlier 1/16° system. The improved horizontal resolution of the 1/32° system has significant dynamical benefits which increase the ability of the model to accurately nowcast and skillfully forecast. At the finer resolution, current pathways and their transports become more accurate, the sea surface height (SSH) variability increases and becomes more realistic and even the global ocean circulation experiences some changes (including inter-basin exchange). These improvements make the 1/32° system a better dynamical interpolator of assimilated satellite altimeter track data, using a one-day model forecast as the first guess. The result is quantitatively more accurate nowcasts, as is illustrated by several model-data comparisons. Based on comparisons with ocean color imagery in the northwestern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the 1/32° system has even demonstrated the ability to map small eddies, 25-75 km in diameter, with 70% reliability and a median eddy center location error of 22.5 km, a surprising and unanticipated result from assimilation of altimeter track data. For all of the eddies (50% small eddies), the reliability was 80% and the median eddy center location error was 29 km. The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system. This is due to ( a) a more accurate initial condition for the forecast and ( b) better resolution and representation of critical dynamical processes (such as upper ocean - topographic coupling via mesoscale flow instabilities) which allow the model to more accurately evolve these features in time while running in forecast mode (forecast atmospheric forcing for the first 5 days, then gradually reverting toward climatology for the remainder of the 30-day forecast period). At 1/32° resolution, forecast SSH generally compares better with unassimilated observations and the anomaly correlation of the forecast SSH exceeds that from persistence by a larger amount than found in the 1/16° system.

A New Approach for 3D Ocean Reconstruction from Limited Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, X.

2014-12-01

Satellites can measure ocean surface height and temperature with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to capture mesoscale features across the globe. Measurements of the ocean's interior, however, remain sparse and irregular, thus the dynamical inference of subsurface flows is necessary to interpret surface measurements. The most common (and accurate) approach is to incorporate surface measurements into a data-assimilating forward ocean model, but this approach is expensive and slow, and thus completely impractical for time-critical needs, such as offering guidance to ship-based observational campaigns. Two recently-developed approaches have made use of the apparent partial consistency of upper ocean dynamics with quasigeostrophic flows that take into account surface buoyancy gradients (i.e. the "surface quasigeostrophic" (SQG) model) to "reconstruct" the interior flow from knowledge of surface height and buoyancy. Here we improve on these methods in three ways: (1) we adopt a modal decomposition that represents the surface and interior dynamics in an efficient way, allowing the separation of surface energy from total energy; (2) we make use of instantaneous vertical profile observations (e.g. from ARGO data) to improve the reconstruction of eddy variables at depth; and (3) we use advanced statistical methods to choose the optimal modes for the reconstruction. The method is tested using a series of high horizontal and vertical resolution quasigeostrophic simulation, with a wide range of surface buoyancy and interior potential vorticity gradient combinations. In addtion, we apply the method to output from a very high resolution primitive equation simulation of a forced and dissipated baroclinic front in a channel. Our new method is systematically compared to the existing methods as well. Its advantages and limitations will be discussed.

Can We Infer Ocean Dynamics from Altimeter Wavenumber Spectra?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richman, James; Shriver, Jay; Arbic, Brian

2012-01-01

The wavenumber spectra of sea surface height (SSH) and kinetic energy (KE) have been used to infer the dynamics of the ocean. When quasi-geostrophic dynamics (QG) or surface quasi-geostrophic (SQG) turbulence dominate and an inertial subrange exists, a steep SSH wavenumber spectrum is expected with k-5 for QG turbulence and a flatter k-11/3 for SQG turbulence. However, inspection of the spectral slopes in the mesoscale band of 70 to 250 km shows that the altimeter wavenumber slopes typically are much flatter than the QG or SQG predictions over most of the ocean. Comparison of the altimeter wavenumber spectra with the spectra estimated from the output of an eddy resolving global ocean circulation model (the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM, at 1/25 resolution), which is forced by high frequency winds and includes the astronomical forcing of the sun and the moon, suggests that the flatter slopes of the altimeter may arise from three possible sources, the presence of internal waves, the lack of an inertial subrange in the 70 to 250 km band and noise or submesoscales at small scales. When the wavenumber spectra of SSH and KE are estimated near the internal tide generating regions, the resulting spectra are much flatter than the expectations of QG or SQG theory. If the height and velocity variability are separated into low frequency (periods greater than 2 days) and high frequency (periods less than a day), then a different pattern emerges with a relatively flat wavenumber spectrum at high frequency and a steeper wavenumber spectrum at low frequency. The stationary internal tides can be removed from the altimeter spectrum, which steepens the spectral slopes in the energetic internal wave regions. Away from generating regions where the internal waves

Dynamics of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current as seen by GRACE (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, M.; Dobslaw, H.; Bergmann, I.

2010-12-01

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current, being the strongest and longest ocean current on Earth, connects the three great ocean basins and contributes substantially to the global re-distribution of water masses, with a significant impact on global climate. Observational coverage from in-situ measurements is sparse due to the harsh environmental conditions, and satellite altimetry does not capture the full extent of the current due to seasonal sea-ice coverage. Ocean bottom pressure variations as sensed with the satellite gravity mission GRACE provide a promising way to broaden our observational basis. Besides monthly mean gravity fields that provide ocean bottom pressure variations averaged over 30 days, several alternative GRACE products with higher temporal resolution have been developed during the most recent years. These include 10-day solutions from GRGS Toulouse, weekly solutions from the GFZ Potsdam as well as constrained daily solutions from the University of Bonn which have been obtained by means of a Kalman filtering approach. In this presentation, ocean bottom pressure derived from these alternative GRACE releases will be contrasted against both in-situ observations and output from a numerical ocean model, highlighting the additional information contained in these GRACE solutions with respect to the standard monthly fields. By means of statistical analyses of ocean bottom pressure variations and barotropic transports it will be demonstrated how these new GRACE releases are contributing to our understanding of this highly dynamic great ocean conveyor.

SEAPODYM-LTL: a parsimonious zooplankton dynamic biomass model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conchon, Anna; Lehodey, Patrick; Gehlen, Marion; Titaud, Olivier; Senina, Inna; Séférian, Roland

2017-04-01

Mesozooplankton organisms are of critical importance for the understanding of early life history of most fish stocks, as well as the nutrient cycles in the ocean. Ongoing climate change and the need for improved approaches to the management of living marine resources has driven recent advances in zooplankton modelling. The classical modeling approach tends to describe the whole biogeochemical and plankton cycle with increasing complexity. We propose here a different and parsimonious zooplankton dynamic biomass model (SEAPODYM-LTL) that is cost efficient and can be advantageously coupled with primary production estimated either from satellite derived ocean color data or biogeochemical models. In addition, the adjoint code of the model is developed allowing a robust optimization approach for estimating the few parameters of the model. In this study, we run the first optimization experiments using a global database of climatological zooplankton biomass data and we make a comparative analysis to assess the importance of resolution and primary production inputs on model fit to observations. We also compare SEAPODYM-LTL outputs to those produced by a more complex biogeochemical model (PISCES) but sharing the same physical forcings.

Dynamics and Properties of Global Aerosol using MODIS, AERONET and GOCART Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Yoram; Chin, Mian; Reme, Lorraine; Tanre, Didier; Mattoo, Shana

2002-01-01

Recently produced daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol data for the whole year of 2001 are used to show the concentration and dynamics of aerosol over ocean and large parts of the continents. The data were validated against the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements over land and ocean in a special issue in GRL now in press. Monthly averages and a movie based on the daily data are produced and used to demonstrate the spatial and temporal evolution of aerosol. The MODIS wide spectral range is used to distinguish fine smoke and pollution aerosol from coarse dust and salt. The aerosol is observed above ocean and land. The movie produced from the MODIS data provides a new dimension to aerosol observations by showing the dynamics of the system. For example in February smoke and dust emitted from the Sahel and West Africa is shown to travel to the North-East Atlantic. In April heavy dust and pollution from East Asia is shown to travel to North America. In May-June pollution and dust play a dynamical dance in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. In Aug-September smoke from South Africa and South America is shown to pulsate in tandem and to periodically to be transported to the otherwise pristine Southern part of the Southern Hemisphere. The MODIS data are compared with the Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) model to test and adjust source and sink strengths in the model and to study the effect of clouds on the representation of the satellite data.

Sea Ice and Hydrographic Variability in the Northwest North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenty, I. G.; Heimbach, P.; Wunsch, C. I.

2010-12-01

Sea ice anomalies in the Northwest North Atlantic's Labrador Sea are of climatic interest because of known and hypothesized feedbacks with hydrographic anomalies, deep convection/mode water formation, and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric patterns. As greenhouse gas concentrations increase, hydrographic anomalies formed in the Arctic Ocean associated with warming will propagate into the Labrador Sea via the Fram Strait/West Greenland Current and the Canadian Archipelago/Baffin Island Current. Therefore, understanding the dynamical response of sea ice in the basin to hydrographic anomalies is essential for the prediction and interpretation of future high-latitude climate change. Historically, efforts to quantify the link between the observed sea ice and hydrographic variability in the region has been limited due to in situ observation paucity and technical challenges associated with synthesizing ocean and sea ice observations with numerical models. To elaborate the relationship between sea ice and ocean variability, we create three one-year (1992-1993, 1996-1997, 2003-2004) three-dimensional time-varying reconstructions of the ocean and sea ice state in Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay. The reconstructions are syntheses of a regional coupled 32 km ocean-sea ice model with a suite of contemporary in situ and satellite hydrographic and ice data using the adjoint method. The model and data are made consistent, in a least-squares sense, by iteratively adjusting several model control variables (e.g., ocean initial and lateral boundary conditions and the atmospheric state) to minimize an uncertainty-weighted model-data misfit cost function. The reconstructions reveal that the ice pack attains a state of quasi-equilibrium in mid-March (the annual sea ice maximum) in which the total ice-covered area reaches a steady state -ice production and dynamical divergence along the coasts balances dynamical convergence and melt along the pack’s seaward edge. Sea ice advected to the marginal ice zone is mainly ablated via large sustained turbulent ocean enthalpy fluxes. The sensible heat required for these sustained fluxes is drawn from a reservoir of warm subsurface waters of subtropical origin entrained into the mixed layer via convective mixing. Analysis of ocean surface buoyancy fluxes during the period preceding quasi-equilibrium reveals that low-salinity upper ocean anomalies are required for ice to advance seaward of the Arctic Water/Irminger Water thermohaline front in the northern Labrador Sea. Anomalous low-salinity waters inhibit mixed layer deepening, shielding the advancing ice pack from the subsurface heat reservoir, and are conducive to a positive surface stratification enhancement feedback from ice meltwater release. Interestingly, the climatological location of the front coincides with the minimum observed wintertime ice extent; positive ice extent anomalies may require hydrographic preconditioning. If true, the export of low-salinity anomalies from melting Arctic ice associated with future warming may be predicted to lead positive ice extent anomalies in Labrador Sea via the positive surface stratification enhancement mechanism feedback outlined above.

[Review of estimation on oceanic primary productivity by using remote sensing methods.

PubMed

Xu, Hong Yun; Zhou, Wei Feng; Ji, Shi Jian

2016-09-01

Accuracy estimation of oceanic primary productivity is of great significance in the assessment and management of fisheries resources, marine ecology systems, global change and other fields. The traditional measurement and estimation of oceanic primary productivity has to rely on in situ sample data by vessels. Satellite remote sensing has advantages of providing dynamic and eco-environmental parameters of ocean surface at large scale in real time. Thus, satellite remote sensing has increasingly become an important means for oceanic primary productivity estimation on large spatio-temporal scale. Combining with the development of ocean color sensors, the models to estimate the oceanic primary productivity by satellite remote sensing have been developed that could be mainly summarized as chlorophyll-based, carbon-based and phytoplankton absorption-based approach. The flexibility and complexity of the three kinds of models were presented in the paper. On this basis, the current research status for global estimation of oceanic primary productivity was analyzed and evaluated. In view of these, four research fields needed to be strengthened in further stu-dy: 1) Global oceanic primary productivity estimation should be segmented and studied, 2) to dee-pen the research on absorption coefficient of phytoplankton, 3) to enhance the technology of ocea-nic remote sensing, 4) to improve the in situ measurement of primary productivity.

Inspiring peer-to-peer educations with film

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vachon, R. W.

2014-12-01

Oceans are vast, complicated, often inaccessible, three-dimensional and dark (for the most part). The value, vulnerabilities and dynamics of marine systems are quite far removed from the consciousness of many people. However, these reasons are not alibis for not understanding and appreciating oceans deep-rooted influences on our lives. Currently, the Nereus Program, a fellowship of climate, fisheries and computer modeling scientists, are accessing school systems in person and virtually, motivating teens to tell stories about their local understanding of the ocean's influence on their communities (even if they live in a landlocked location). In it's first iteration, we are soliciting youth to communicate through the popular medium of film. These films will be assembled into an on-line digital field guide. In part, this program is designed to be a peer-to-peer educational technique, where civilians are teaching other civilians about local or regional ocean dynamics. Additionally, the act of teaching through film is a proven method for deepening engagement, learning and empowerment of the individuals producing the films.

An individual-based model of skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) movement in the tropical Pacific ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scutt Phillips, Joe; Sen Gupta, Alex; Senina, Inna; van Sebille, Erik; Lange, Michael; Lehodey, Patrick; Hampton, John; Nicol, Simon

2018-05-01

The distribution of marine species is often modeled using Eulerian approaches, in which changes to population density or abundance are calculated at fixed locations in space. Conversely, Lagrangian, or individual-based, models simulate the movement of individual particles moving in continuous space, with broader-scale patterns such as distribution being an emergent property of many, potentially adaptive, individuals. These models offer advantages in examining dynamics across spatiotemporal scales and making comparisons with observations from individual-scale data. Here, we introduce and describe such a model, the Individual-based Kinesis, Advection and Movement of Ocean ANimAls model (Ikamoana), which we use to replicate the movement processes of an existing Eulerian model for marine predators (the Spatial Ecosystem and Population Dynamics Model, SEAPODYM). Ikamoana simulates the movement of either individual or groups of animals by physical ocean currents, habitat-dependent stochastic movements (kinesis), and taxis movements representing active searching behaviours. Applying our model to Pacific skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis), we show that it accurately replicates the evolution of density distribution simulated by SEAPODYM with low time-mean error and a spatial correlation of density that exceeds 0.96 at all times. We demonstrate how the Lagrangian approach permits easy tracking of individuals' trajectories for examining connectivity between different regions, and show how the model can provide independent estimates of transfer rates between commonly used assessment regions. In particular, we find that retention rates in most assessment regions are considerably smaller (up to a factor of 2) than those estimated by this population of skipjack's primary assessment model. Moreover, these rates are sensitive to ocean state (e.g. El Nino vs La Nina) and so assuming fixed transfer rates between regions may lead to spurious stock estimates. A novel feature of the Lagrangian approach is that individual schools can be tracked through time, and we demonstrate that movement between two assessment regions at broad temporal scales includes extended transits through other regions at finer-scales. Finally, we discuss the utility of this modeling framework for the management of marine reserves, designing effective monitoring programmes, and exploring hypotheses regarding the behaviour of hard-to-observe oceanic animals.

Post-1980 shifts in the sensitivity of boreal tree growth to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics and seasonal climate. Tree growth responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ols, Clémentine; Trouet, Valerie; Girardin, Martin P.; Hofgaard, Annika; Bergeron, Yves; Drobyshev, Igor

2018-06-01

The mid-20th century changes in North Atlantic Ocean dynamics, e.g. slow-down of the Atlantic meridional overturning thermohaline circulation (AMOC), have been considered as early signs of tipping points in the Earth climate system. We hypothesized that these changes have significantly altered boreal forest growth dynamics in northeastern North America (NA) and northern Europe (NE), two areas geographically adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. To test our hypothesis, we investigated tree growth responses to seasonal large-scale oceanic and atmospheric indices (the AMOC, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO)) and climate (temperature and precipitation) from 1950 onwards, both at the regional and local levels. We developed a network of 6876 black spruce (NA) and 14437 Norway spruce (NE) tree-ring width series, extracted from forest inventory databases. Analyses revealed post-1980 shifts from insignificant to significant tree growth responses to summer oceanic and atmospheric dynamics both in NA (negative responses to NAO and AO indices) and NE (positive response to NAO and AMOC indices). The strength and sign of these responses varied, however, through space with stronger responses in western and central boreal Quebec and in central and northern boreal Sweden, and across scales with stronger responses at the regional level than at the local level. Emerging post-1980 associations with North Atlantic Ocean dynamics synchronized with stronger tree growth responses to local seasonal climate, particularly to winter temperatures. Our results suggest that ongoing and future anomalies in oceanic and atmospheric dynamics may impact forest growth and carbon sequestration to a greater extent than previously thought. Cross-scale differences in responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics highlight complex interplays in the effects of local climate and ocean-atmosphere dynamics on tree growth processes and advocate for the use of different spatial scales in climate-growth research to better understand factors controlling tree growth.

Diagnosis of CO2 Fluxes in the Coastal Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, M.; Cao, Z.; Yang, W.; Guo, X.; Yin, Z.; Zhao, Y.

2017-12-01

Coastal ocean carbon is an important component of the global carbon cycle. However, its mechanistic-based conceptualization, a prerequisite of coastal carbon modeling and its inclusion in the Earth System Model, remains difficult due to the highest variability in both time and space. Here we show that the inter-seasonal change of the global coastal pCO2 is more determined by non-temperature factors such as biological drawdown and water mass mixing, the latter of which features the dynamic boundary processes of the coastal ocean at both land-margin and margin-open ocean interfaces. Considering these unique features, we resolve the coastal CO2 fluxes using a semi-analytical approach coupling physics-biogeochemistry and carbon-nutrients and conceptualize the coastal carbon cycle into Ocean-dominated Margins (OceMar) and River-dominated Ocean Margins (RiOMar). The diagnostic result of CO2 fluxes in the South China Sea basin and the Arabian Sea as OceMars and in the Pearl River Plume as a RioMar is consistent with field observations. Our mechanistic-based diagnostic approach therefore helps better understand and model coastal carbon cycle yet the stoichiometry of carbon-nutrients coupling needs scrutiny when applying our approach.

The pre-Argo ocean reanalyses may be seriously affected by the spatial coverage of moored buoys

PubMed Central

Sivareddy, S.; Paul, Arya; Sluka, Travis; Ravichandran, M.; Kalnay, Eugenia

2017-01-01

Assimilation methods, meant to constrain divergence of model trajectory from reality using observations, do not exactly satisfy the physical laws governing the model state variables. This allows mismatches in the analysis in the vicinity of observation locations where the effect of assimilation is most prominent. These mismatches are usually mitigated either by the model dynamics in between the analysis cycles and/or by assimilation at the next analysis cycle. However, if the observations coverage is limited in space, as it was in the ocean before the Argo era, these mechanisms may be insufficient to dampen the mismatches, which we call shocks, and they may remain and grow. Here we show through controlled experiments, using real and simulated observations in two different ocean models and assimilation systems, that such shocks are generated in the ocean at the lateral boundaries of the moored buoy network. They thrive and propagate westward as Rossby waves along these boundaries. However, these shocks are essentially eliminated by the assimilation of near-homogenous global Argo distribution. These findings question the fidelity of ocean reanalysis products in the pre-Argo era. For example, a reanalysis that ignores Argo floats and assimilates only moored buoys, wrongly represents 2008 as a negative Indian Ocean Dipole year. PMID:28429748

The Role of Ocean Dynamical Thermostat in Delaying the El Niño–Like Response over the Equatorial Pacific to Climate Warming

DOE PAGES

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; ...

2017-03-27

The role of the ocean dynamics in the response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to climate warming is investigated using both an atmosphere-ocean coupled climate system and its ocean component. Results show that the initial response (fast pattern) to an uniform heating imposed on to the ocean is a warming centered to the west of the dateline owing to the conventional ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) mechanism in the eastern equatorial Pacific-a cooling effect arising from the up-gradient upwelling. In time, the warming pattern gradually propagates eastward, becoming more El Niño-like (slow pattern). The transition from the fast to the slowmore » patterns is likely resulted from i) the gradual warming of the equatorial thermocline temperature, which is associated with the arrival of the relatively warmer extratropical waters advected along the subsurface branch of the subtropical cells (STC) and ii) the reduction of the STC strength itself. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that it is the total ocean dynamical effect rather than the conventional ODT that holds the key for understanding the pattern of the SST in the equatorial Pacific and that the surface heat flux works mainly to compensate the ocean dynamics. Further passive tracer experiments with the ocean component of the coupled system verify the role of the ocean dynamical processes in initiating a La Niña-like SST warming and in setting the pace of the transition to an El Niño-like warming and identify an oceanic origin for the slow eastern Pacific warming independent of the weakening trade wind.« less

The Role of Ocean Dynamical Thermostat in Delaying the El Niño–Like Response over the Equatorial Pacific to Climate Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

The role of the ocean dynamics in the response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to climate warming is investigated using both an atmosphere-ocean coupled climate system and its ocean component. Results show that the initial response (fast pattern) to an uniform heating imposed on to the ocean is a warming centered to the west of the dateline owing to the conventional ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) mechanism in the eastern equatorial Pacific-a cooling effect arising from the up-gradient upwelling. In time, the warming pattern gradually propagates eastward, becoming more El Niño-like (slow pattern). The transition from the fast to the slowmore » patterns is likely resulted from i) the gradual warming of the equatorial thermocline temperature, which is associated with the arrival of the relatively warmer extratropical waters advected along the subsurface branch of the subtropical cells (STC) and ii) the reduction of the STC strength itself. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that it is the total ocean dynamical effect rather than the conventional ODT that holds the key for understanding the pattern of the SST in the equatorial Pacific and that the surface heat flux works mainly to compensate the ocean dynamics. Further passive tracer experiments with the ocean component of the coupled system verify the role of the ocean dynamical processes in initiating a La Niña-like SST warming and in setting the pace of the transition to an El Niño-like warming and identify an oceanic origin for the slow eastern Pacific warming independent of the weakening trade wind.« less

Changes of the Oceanic Long-term and seasonal variation in a Global-warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Q.; He, Y.; Dong, C.

2015-12-01

Abstract: Gridded absolute dynamic topography (ADT) from AVISO and outputs of sea surface height above geoid from a series of climate models run for CMIP5 are used to analysis global sea level variation. Variance has been calculated to determine the magnitude of change in sea level variation over two decades. Increasing trend of variance of ADT suggests an enhanced fluctuation as well as geostrophic shear of global ocean. To further determine on what scale does the increasing fluctuation dominate, the global absolute dynamic topography (ADT) has been separated into two distinguished parts: the global five-year mean sea surface (MSS) and the residual absolute dynamic topography (RADT). Increased variance of MSS can be ascribed to the nonuniform rising of global sea level and an enhancement of ocean gyres in the Pacific Ocean. While trend in the variance of RADT is found to be close to zero which suggests an unchanged ocean mesoscale variability. The Gaussian-like distribution of global ADT are used to study the change in extreme sea levels. Information entropy has also been adapted in our study. Increasing trend of information entropy which measures the degree of dispersion of a probability distribution suggests more appearance of extreme sea levels. Extreme high sea levels are increasing with a higher growing rate than the mean sea level rise.

Merging Disparate Data and Numerical Model Results for Dynamically Constrained Nowcasts

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-09-30

of Delaware Newark, DE 19716 phone: (302) 831-6836 fax: (302) 831-6838 email: brucel @udel.edu Award #: N000149910052 http://newark.cms.udel.edu... brucel /hrd.html LONG-TERM GOALS Our long-term goal is to quantify submesoscale dynamical processes in the ocean so that we can better understand

Southern Ocean eddy compensation in a forced eddy-resolving GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruun Poulsen, Mads; Jochum, Markus; Eden, Carsten; Nuterman, Roman

2017-04-01

Contemporary eddy-resolving model studies have demonstrated that the common parameterisation of isopycnal mixing in the ocean is subject to limitations in the Southern Ocean where the mesoscale eddies are of leading order importance to the dynamics. We here present forced simulations from the Community Earth System Model on a global {1/10}° and 1° horizontal grid, the latter employing an eddy parameterisation, where the strength of the zonal wind stress south of 25°S has been varied. With a 50% zonally symmetric increase of the wind stress, we show that the two models arrive at two radically different solutions in terms of the large-scale circulation, with an increase of the deep inflow of water to the Southern Ocean at 40°S by 50% in the high resolution model against 20% at coarse resolution. Together with a weaker vertical displacement of the pycnocline in the 1° model, these results suggest that the parameterised eddies have an overly strong compensating effect on the water mass transformation compared to the explicit eddies. Implications for eddy mixing parameterisations will be discussed.

Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America.

PubMed

Coats, S; Smerdon, J E; Cook, B I; Seager, R; Cook, E R; Anchukaitis, K J

2016-09-28

Multidecadal droughts that occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly represent an important target for validating the ability of climate models to adequately characterize drought risk over the near-term future. A prominent hypothesis is that these megadroughts were driven by a centuries-long radiatively forced shift in the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Here we use a novel combination of spatiotemporal tree-ring reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate to infer the atmosphere-ocean dynamics that coincide with megadroughts over the American West, and find that these features are consistently associated with ten-to-thirty year periods of frequent cold El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions and not a centuries-long shift in the mean of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results suggest an important role for internal variability in driving past megadroughts. State-of-the art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, however, do not simulate a consistent association between megadroughts and internal variability of the tropical Pacific Ocean, with implications for our confidence in megadrought risk projections.

Using a numerical model to understand the connection between the ocean and acoustic travel-time measurements.

PubMed

Powell, Brian S; Kerry, Colette G; Cornuelle, Bruce D

2013-10-01

Measurements of acoustic ray travel-times in the ocean provide synoptic integrals of the ocean state between source and receiver. It is known that the ray travel-time is sensitive to variations in the ocean at the transmission time, but the sensitivity of the travel-time to spatial variations in the ocean prior to the acoustic transmission have not been quantified. This study examines the sensitivity of ray travel-time to the temporally and spatially evolving ocean state in the Philippine Sea using the adjoint of a numerical model. A one year series of five day backward integrations of the adjoint model quantify the sensitivity of travel-times to varying dynamics that can alter the travel-time of a 611 km ray by 200 ms. The early evolution of the sensitivities reveals high-mode internal waves that dissipate quickly, leaving the lowest three modes, providing a connection to variations in the internal tide generation prior to the sample time. They are also strongly sensitive to advective effects that alter density along the ray path. These sensitivities reveal how travel-time measurements are affected by both nearby and distant waters. Temporal nonlinearity of the sensitivities suggests that prior knowledge of the ocean state is necessary to exploit the travel-time observations.

Improving Visual Communication.

PubMed

Singh, Gary

2018-01-01

A tool that creates realtime interactive color maps for scientific visualization helped enhance the dynamics of a major research project for the Climate, Ocean, and Sea Ice Modeling team at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

Dynamics of the last glacial maximum Antarctic ice-sheet and its response to ocean forcing

PubMed Central

Golledge, Nicholas R.; Fogwill, Christopher J.; Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Buckley, Kevin M.

2012-01-01

Retreat of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Antarctic ice sheet is thought to have been initiated by changes in ocean heat and eustatic sea level propagated from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as northern ice sheets melted under rising atmospheric temperatures. The extent to which spatial variability in ice dynamics may have modulated the resultant pattern and timing of decay of the Antarctic ice sheet has so far received little attention, however, despite the growing recognition that dynamic effects account for a sizeable proportion of mass-balance changes observed in modern ice sheets. Here we use a 5-km resolution whole-continent numerical ice-sheet model to assess whether differences in the mechanisms governing ice sheet flow could account for discrepancies between geochronological studies in different parts of the continent. We first simulate the geometry and flow characteristics of an equilibrium LGM ice sheet, using pan-Antarctic terrestrial and marine geological data for constraint, then perturb the system with sea level and ocean heat flux increases to investigate ice-sheet vulnerability. Our results identify that fast-flowing glaciers in the eastern Weddell Sea, the Amundsen Sea, central Ross Sea, and in the Amery Trough respond most rapidly to ocean forcings, in agreement with empirical data. Most significantly, we find that although ocean warming and sea-level rise bring about mainly localized glacier acceleration, concomitant drawdown of ice from neighboring areas leads to widespread thinning of entire glacier catchments—a discovery that has important ramifications for the dynamic changes presently being observed in modern ice sheets. PMID:22988078

Dynamics of the last glacial maximum Antarctic ice-sheet and its response to ocean forcing.

PubMed

Golledge, Nicholas R; Fogwill, Christopher J; Mackintosh, Andrew N; Buckley, Kevin M

2012-10-02

Retreat of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Antarctic ice sheet is thought to have been initiated by changes in ocean heat and eustatic sea level propagated from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as northern ice sheets melted under rising atmospheric temperatures. The extent to which spatial variability in ice dynamics may have modulated the resultant pattern and timing of decay of the Antarctic ice sheet has so far received little attention, however, despite the growing recognition that dynamic effects account for a sizeable proportion of mass-balance changes observed in modern ice sheets. Here we use a 5-km resolution whole-continent numerical ice-sheet model to assess whether differences in the mechanisms governing ice sheet flow could account for discrepancies between geochronological studies in different parts of the continent. We first simulate the geometry and flow characteristics of an equilibrium LGM ice sheet, using pan-Antarctic terrestrial and marine geological data for constraint, then perturb the system with sea level and ocean heat flux increases to investigate ice-sheet vulnerability. Our results identify that fast-flowing glaciers in the eastern Weddell Sea, the Amundsen Sea, central Ross Sea, and in the Amery Trough respond most rapidly to ocean forcings, in agreement with empirical data. Most significantly, we find that although ocean warming and sea-level rise bring about mainly localized glacier acceleration, concomitant drawdown of ice from neighboring areas leads to widespread thinning of entire glacier catchments-a discovery that has important ramifications for the dynamic changes presently being observed in modern ice sheets.

Oceanic transform faults: how and why do they form? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerya, T.

2013-12-01

Oceanic transform faults at mid-ocean ridges are often considered to be the direct product of plate breakup process (cf. review by Gerya, 2012). In contrast, recent 3D thermomechanical numerical models suggest that transform faults are plate growth structures, which develop gradually on a timescale of few millions years (Gerya, 2010, 2013a,b). Four subsequent stages are predicted for the transition from rifting to spreading (Gerya, 2013b): (1) crustal rifting, (2) multiple spreading centers nucleation and propagation, (3) proto-transform faults initiation and rotation and (4) mature ridge-transform spreading. Geometry of the mature ridge-transform system is governed by geometrical requirements for simultaneous accretion and displacement of new plate material within two offset spreading centers connected by a sustaining rheologically weak transform fault. According to these requirements, the characteristic spreading-parallel orientation of oceanic transform faults is the only thermomechanically consistent steady state orientation. Comparison of modeling results with the Woodlark Basin suggests that the development of this incipient spreading region (Taylor et al., 2009) closely matches numerical predictions (Gerya, 2013b). Model reproduces well characteristic 'rounded' contours of the spreading centers as well as the presence of a remnant of the broken continental crustal bridge observed in the Woodlark basin. Similarly to the model, the Moresby (proto)transform terminates in the oceanic rather than in the continental crust. Transform margins and truncated tip of one spreading center present in the model are documented in nature. In addition, numerical experiments suggest that transform faults can develop gradually at mature linear mid-ocean ridges as the result of dynamical instability (Gerya, 2010). Boundary instability from asymmetric plate growth can spontaneously start in alternate directions along successive ridge sections; the resultant curved ridges become transform faults. Offsets along the transform faults change continuously with time by asymmetric plate growth and discontinuously by ridge jumps. The ridge instability is governed by rheological weakening of active fault structures. The instability is most efficient for slow to intermediate spreading rates, whereas ultraslow and (ultra)fast spreading rates tend to destabilize transform faults (Gerya, 2010; Püthe and Gerya, 2013) References Gerya, T. (2010) Dynamical instability produces transform faults at mid-ocean ridges. Science, 329, 1047-1050. Gerya, T. (2012) Origin and models of oceanic transform faults. Tectonophys., 522-523, 34-56 Gerya, T.V. (2013a) Three-dimensional thermomechanical modeling of oceanic spreading initiation and evolution. Phys. Earth Planet. Interiors, 214, 35-52. Gerya, T.V. (2013b) Initiation of transform faults at rifted continental margins: 3D petrological-thermomechanical modeling and comparison to the Woodlark Basin. Petrology, 21, 1-10. Püthe, C., Gerya, T.V. (2013) Dependence of mid-ocean ridge morphology on spreading rate in numerical 3-D models. Gondwana Res., DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2013.04.005 Taylor, B., Goodliffe, A., Martinez, F. (2009) Initiation of transform faults at rifted continental margins. Comptes Rendus Geosci., 341, 428-438.

Assimilation of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Fields: Validating Ocean Analyses and Identifying Errors in Surface Buoyancy Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehra, A.; Nadiga, S.; Bayler, E. J.; Behringer, D.

2014-12-01

Recently available satellite sea-surface salinity (SSS) fields provide an important new global data stream for assimilation into ocean forecast systems. In this study, we present results from assimilating satellite SSS fields from NASA's Aquarius mission into the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) operational Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4), the oceanic component of NOAA's operational seasonal-interannual Climate Forecast System (CFS). Experiments on the sensitivity of the ocean's overall state to different relaxation time periods were run to evaluate the importance of assimilating high-frequency (daily to mesoscale) and low-frequency (seasonal) SSS variability. Aquarius SSS data (Aquarius Data Processing System (ADPS) version 3.0), mapped daily fields at 1-degree spatial resolution, were used. Four model simulations were started from the same initial ocean condition and forced with NOAA's daily Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) fluxes, using a relaxation technique to assimilate daily satellite sea surface temperature (SST) fields and selected SSS fields, where, except as noted, a 30-day relaxation period is used. The simulations are: (1) WOAMC, the reference case and similar to the operational setup, assimilating monthly climatological SSS from the 2009 NOAA World Ocean Atlas; (2) AQ_D, assimilating daily Aquarius SSS; (3) AQ_M, assimilating monthly Aquarius SSS; and (4) AQ_D10, assimilating daily Aquarius SSS, but using a 10-day relaxation period. The analysis focuses on the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the salinity dynamics are intense and dominated by El Niño interannual variability in the cold tongue region and by high-frequency precipitation events in the western Pacific warm pool region. To assess the robustness of results and conclusions, we also examine the results for the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Preliminary validation studies are conducted using observations, such as satellite sea-surface height (SSH) fields and in situ Argo buoy vertical profiles of temperature and salinity, to demonstrate that SSS data assimilation improves ocean state representation of the following variables: ocean heat content (0-300m), dynamic height (0-1000m), mixed-layer depth, sea surface heigh, and surface buoyancy fluxes.

Association between mean and interannual equatorial Indian Ocean subsurface temperature bias in a coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivas, G.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Prasad, K. V. S. R.; Karmakar, Ananya; Parekh, Anant

2018-03-01

In the present study the association between mean and interannual subsurface temperature bias over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) is investigated during boreal summer (June through September; JJAS) in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) hindcast. Anomalously high subsurface warm bias (greater than 3 °C) over the eastern EIO (EEIO) region is noted in CFSv2 during summer, which is higher compared to other parts of the tropical Indian Ocean. Prominent eastward current bias in the upper 100 m over the EIO region induced by anomalous westerly winds is primarily responsible for subsurface temperature bias. The eastward currents transport warm water to the EEIO and is pushed down to subsurface due to downwelling. Thus biases in both horizontal and vertical currents over the EIO region support subsurface warm bias. The evolution of systematic subsurface warm bias in the model shows strong interannual variability. These maximum subsurface warming episodes over the EEIO are mainly associated with La Niña like forcing. Strong convergence of low level winds over the EEIO and Maritime continent enhanced the westerly wind bias over the EIO during maximum warming years. This low level convergence of wind is induced by the bias in the gradient in the mean sea level pressure with positive bias over western EIO and negative bias over EEIO and parts of western Pacific. Consequently, changes in the atmospheric circulation associated with La Niña like conditions affected the ocean dynamics by modulating the current bias thereby enhancing the subsurface warm bias over the EEIO. It is identified that EEIO subsurface warming is stronger when La Niña co-occurred with negative Indian Ocean Dipole events as compared to La Niña only years in the model. Ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments forced with CFSv2 winds clearly support our hypothesis that ocean dynamics influenced by westerly winds bias is primarily responsible for the strong subsurface warm bias over the EEIO. This study advocates the importance of understanding the ability of the models in representing the large scale air-sea interactions over the tropics and their impact on ocean biases for better monsoon forecast.

Dynamical Interpolation of Mesoscale Flows in the TOPEX/Poseidon Diamond Surrounding the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study Site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGillicuddy, Dennis J., Jr.; Kosnyrev, V. K.

2001-01-01

An open boundary ocean model is configured in a domain bounded by the four TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) ground tracks surrounding the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS) site. This implementation facilitates prescription of model boundary conditions directly from altimetric measurements (both TIP and ERS-2). The expected error characteristics for a domain of this size with periodically updated boundary conditions are established with idealized numerical experiments using simulated data. A hindcast simulation is then constructed using actual altimetric observations during the period October 1992 through September 1998. Quantitative evaluation of the simulation suggests significant skill. The correlation coefficient between predicted sea level anomaly and ERS observations in the model interior is 0.89; that for predicted versus observed dynamic height anomaly based on hydrography at the BATS site is 0.73. Comparison with the idealized experiments suggests that the main source of error in the hindcast is temporal undersampling of the boundary conditions. The hindcast simulation described herein provides a basis for retrospective analysis of BATS observations in the context of the mesoscale eddy field.

Dynamical Interpolation of Mesoscale Flows in the TOPEX/ Poseidon Diamond Surrounding the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study Site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGillicuddy, D. J.; Kosnyrev, V. K.

2001-01-01

An open boundary ocean model is configured in a domain bounded by the four TOPEX/Poseidon (TIP) ground tracks surrounding the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site. This implementation facilitates prescription of model boundary conditions directly from altimetric measurements (both TIP and ERS-2). The expected error characteristics for a domain of this size with periodically updated boundary conditions are established with idealized numerical experiments using simulated data. A hindcast simulation is then constructed using actual altimetric observations during the period October 1992 through September 1998. Quantitative evaluation of the simulation suggests significant skill. The correlation coefficient between predicted sea level anomaly and ERS observations in the model interior is 0.89; that for predicted versus observed dynamic height anomaly based on hydrography at the BATS site is 0.73. Comparison with the idealized experiments suggests that the main source of error in the hindcast is temporal undersampling of the boundary conditions. The hindcast simulation described herein provides a basis for retrospective analysis of BATS observations in the context of the mesoscale eddy field.

ONR Ocean Wave Dynamics Workshop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

In anticipation of the start (in Fiscal Year 1988) of a new Office of Naval Research (ONR) Accelerated Research Initiative (ARI) on Ocean Surface Wave Dynamics, a workshop was held August 5-7, 1986, at Woods Hole, Mass., to discuss new ideas and directions of research. This new ARI on Ocean Surface Wave Dynamics is a 5-year effort that is organized by the ONR Physical Oceanography Program in cooperation with the ONR Fluid Mechanics Program and the Physical Oceanography Branch at the Naval Ocean Research and Development Activity (NORDA). The central theme is improvement of our understanding of the basic physics and dynamics of surface wave phenomena, with emphasis on the following areas: precise air-sea coupling mechanisms,dynamics of nonlinear wave-wave interaction under realistic environmental conditions,wave breaking and dissipation of energy,interaction between surface waves and upper ocean boundary layer dynamics, andsurface statistical and boundary layer coherent structures.

Arctic climate response to geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Battisti, D. S.; Bitz, C. M.

2010-12-01

Recent warming and record summer sea-ice area minimums have spurred expressions of concern for arctic ecosystems, permafrost, and polar bear populations, among other things. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections to deliberately cancel the anthropogenic temperature rise has been put forth as a possible solution to restoring Arctic (and global) climate to modern conditions. However, climate is particularly sensitive in the northern high latitudes, responding easily to radiative forcing changes. To that end, we explore the extent to which tropical injections of stratospheric sulfate aerosol can accomplish regional cancellation in the Arctic. We use the Community Climate System Model version 3 global climate model to execute simulations with combinations of doubled CO2 and imposed stratospheric sulfate burdens to investigate the effects on high latitude climate. We further explore the sensitivity of the polar climate to ocean dynamics by running a suite of simulations with and without ocean dynamics, transiently and to equilibrium respectively. We find that, although annual, global mean temperature cancellation is accomplished, there is over-cooling on land in Arctic summer, but residual warming in Arctic winter, which is largely due to atmospheric circulation changes. Furthermore, the spatial extent of these features and their concurrent impacts on sea-ice properties are modified by the inclusion of ocean dynamical feedbacks.

Combined constraints on global ocean primary production using observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Hashioka, Taketo; Quéré, Corinne Le

2013-09-01

production is at the base of the marine food web and plays a central role for global biogeochemical cycles. Yet global ocean primary production is known to only a factor of 2, with previous estimates ranging from 38 to 65 Pg C yr-1 and no formal uncertainty analysis. Here, we present an improved global ocean biogeochemistry model that includes a mechanistic representation of photosynthesis and a new observational database of net primary production (NPP) in the ocean. We combine the model and observations to constrain particulate NPP in the ocean with statistical metrics. The PlankTOM5.3 model includes a new photosynthesis formulation with a dynamic representation of iron-light colimitation, which leads to a considerable improvement of the interannual variability of surface chlorophyll. The database includes a consistent set of 50,050 measurements of 14C primary production. The model best reproduces observations when global NPP is 58 ± 7 Pg C yr-1, with a most probable value of 56 Pg C yr-1. The most probable value is robust to the model used. The uncertainty represents 95% confidence intervals. It considers all random errors in the model and observations, but not potential biases in the observations. We show that tropical regions (23°S-23°N) contribute half of the global NPP, while NPPs in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are approximately equal in spite of the larger ocean area in the South.

Arctic sea-ice variability and its implication to the path of pollutants under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro-Morales, K.; Gerdes, R.; Riemann-Campe, K.; Köberle, C.; Losch, M.

2012-04-01

The increasing concentration of pollutants from anthropogenic origin in the Arctic atmosphere, water, sediments and biota has been evident during the last decade. The sea-ice is an important vehicle for pollutants in the Arctic Ocean. Pollutants are taken up by precipitation and dry atmospheric deposition over the snow and ice cover during winter and released to the ocean during melting. Recent changes in the sea-ice cover of the Arctic Ocean affect the fresh water balance and the oceanic circulation, and with it, the fate of pollutants in the system. The Arctic Ocean is characterized by complex dynamics and strong stratification. Thus, to evaluate the current and future changes in the Arctic circulation high-resolution models are needed. As part of the EU FP7 project ArcRisk (under the scope of the IPY), we use a high resolution regional sea-ice-ocean coupled model covering the Arctic Ocean and the subpolar North Atlantic based on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology - circulation model (MITgcm). Under realistic atmospheric forcing we obtain hindcast results of circulation patterns for the period 1990 - 2010 for validation of the model. We evaluate possible consequences on the pathways and transport of contaminants by downscaling future climate scenario runs available in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) for the following fifty years. Particular interest is set in the Barents Sea. In this shallow region strong river runoff, sea-ice delivered from the interior of the Arctic Ocean and warm waters from the North Atlantic current are main sources of contaminants. Under a changing climate, a higher input of contaminants delivered to surface waters is expected, remaining in the interior of the Arctic Ocean in a strongly stratified water column remaining.

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and the Global Carbon Cycle: The Key Uncertainties

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Peng, T. H.; Post, W. M.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Dale, V. H.; Farrell, M. P.

1987-12-01

The biogeochemical cycling of carbon between its sources and sinks determines the rate of increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. The observed increase in atmospheric CO{sub 2} content is less than the estimated release from fossil fuel consumption and deforestation. This discrepancy can be explained by interactions between the atmosphere and other global carbon reservoirs such as the oceans, and the terrestrial biosphere including soils. Undoubtedly, the oceans have been the most important sinks for CO{sub 2} produced by man. But, the physical, chemical, and biological processes of oceans are complex and, therefore, credible estimates of CO{sub 2} uptake can probably only come from mathematical models. Unfortunately, one- and two-dimensional ocean models do not allow for enough CO{sub 2} uptake to accurately account for known releases. Thus, they produce higher concentrations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} than was historically the case. More complex three-dimensional models, while currently being developed, may make better use of existing tracer data than do one- and two-dimensional models and will also incorporate climate feedback effects to provide a more realistic view of ocean dynamics and CO{sub 2} fluxes. The instability of current models to estimate accurately oceanic uptake of CO{sub 2} creates one of the key uncertainties in predictions of atmospheric CO{sub 2} increases and climate responses over the next 100 to 200 years.

Determining Coastal Mean Dynamic Topography by Geodetic Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jianliang

2017-11-01

In geodesy, coastal mean dynamic topography (MDT) was traditionally determined by spirit leveling technique. Advances in navigation satellite positioning (e.g., GPS) and geoid determination enable space-based leveling with an accuracy of about 3 cm at tide gauges. Recent CryoSat-2, a satellite altimetry mission with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and SAR interferometric measurements, extends the space-based leveling to the coastal ocean with the same accuracy. However, barriers remain in applying the two space-based geodetic methods for MDT determination over the coastal ocean because current geoid modeling focuses primarily on land as a substitute to spirit leveling to realize the vertical datum.

Integrated Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Removal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rickels, W.; Reith, F.; Keller, D.; Oschlies, A.; Quaas, M. F.

2018-03-01

To maintain the chance of keeping the average global temperature increase below 2°C and to limit long-term climate change, removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (carbon dioxide removal, CDR) is becoming increasingly necessary. We analyze optimal and cost-effective climate policies in the dynamic integrated assessment model (IAM) of climate and the economy (DICE2016R) and investigate (1) the utilization of (ocean) CDR under different climate objectives, (2) the sensitivity of policies with respect to carbon cycle feedbacks, and (3) how well carbon cycle feedbacks are captured in the carbon cycle models used in state-of-the-art IAMs. Overall, the carbon cycle model in DICE2016R shows clear improvements compared to its predecessor, DICE2013R, capturing much better long-term dynamics and also oceanic carbon outgassing due to excess oceanic storage of carbon from CDR. However, this comes at the cost of a (too) tight short-term remaining emission budget, limiting the model suitability to analyze low-emission scenarios accurately. With DICE2016R, the compliance with the 2°C goal is no longer feasible without negative emissions via CDR. Overall, the optimal amount of CDR has to take into account (1) the emission substitution effect and (2) compensation for carbon cycle feedbacks.

Modeling the basal melting and marine ice accretion of the Amery Ice Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galton-Fenzi, B. K.; Hunter, J. R.; Coleman, R.; Marsland, S. J.; Warner, R. C.

2012-09-01

The basal mass balance of the Amery Ice Shelf (AIS) in East Antarctica is investigated using a numerical ocean model. The main improvements of this model over previous studies are the inclusion of frazil formation and dynamics, tides and the use of the latest estimate of the sub-ice-shelf cavity geometry. The model produces a net basal melt rate of 45.6 Gt year-1 (0.74 m ice year-1) which is in good agreement with reviewed observations. The melting at the base of the ice shelf is primarily due to interaction with High Salinity Shelf Water created from the surface sea-ice formation in winter. The temperature difference between the coldest waters created in the open ocean and the in situ freezing point of ocean water in contact with the deepest part of the AIS drives a melt rate that can exceed 30 m of ice year-1. The inclusion of frazil dynamics is shown to be important for both melting and marine ice accretion (refreezing). Frazil initially forms in the supercooled water layer adjacent to the base of the ice shelf. The net accretion of marine ice is 5.3 Gt year-1, comprised of 3.7 Gt year-1 of frazil accretion and 1.6 Gt year-1 of direct basal refreezing.

Increased Ocean Heat Convergence Into the High Latitudes With CO 2 Doubling Enhances Polar-Amplified Warming: OCEAN HEAT AND POLAR WARMING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, H. A.; Rasch, P. J.; Rose, B. E. J.

We isolate the role of the ocean in polar climate change by directly evaluating how changes in ocean dynamics with quasi-equilibrium CO2-doubling impact high-latitude climate. With CO2-doubling, the ocean heat flux convergence (OHFC) shifts poleward in winter in both hemispheres. Imposing this pattern of perturbed OHFC in a global climate model results in a poleward shift in ocean-to-atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes (both sensible and latent) and sea ice retreat; the high-latitudes warm while the midlatitudes cool, thereby amplifying polar warming. Furthermore, midlatitude cooling is propagated to the polar mid-troposphere on isentropic surfaces, augmenting the (positive) lapse rate feedback at highmore » latitudes. These results highlight the key role played by the partitioning of meridional energy transport changes between the atmosphere and ocean in high-latitude climate change.« less

Coupled dynamics that determine the position and variability of the ITCZ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, S.; Miyama, T.; Wang, Y.; Xu, H.; de Szoeke, S.

2006-05-01

The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is displaced north of the equator in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, as a result of asymmetry in continental geometry and air-sea interactions. This latitudinal asymmetry plays an important role in shaping the equatorial annual cycle, the seasonality of the equatorial mode in both the ocean basins, and the tropical Atlantic meridional mode. Despite its climatic importance, the northward- displaced ITCZ is poorly simulated in state-of-the-art global climate models, casting doubts on their simulations of the past and current climate and projection of future climate. A regional ocean-atmosphere model has been developed to study the effects of external influences (e.g., high- latitude cooling in the northern North Atlantic) and internal feedback on the Pacific ITCZ. The regional ocean- atmosphere model (ROAM) reproduces salient features of eastern Pacific climate, including a northward- displaced intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) collocated with a zonal band of high SSTs, a low-cloud deck in the Southeast Pacific, the equatorial cold tongue and its annual cycle. The model climate - such as the position of the ITCZ, equatorial annual cycle and maximum SST - is sensitive to the treatment of low cloud. In another experiment where tropical North Atlantic SST is lowered by 2C, equatorial Pacific SST decreases by up to 3C in January-April but changes much less in other seasons, resulting in a weakened equatorial annual cycle. Central American mountains, poorly resolved in global models, appear to play an important role in this cross-basin interaction. The coupled dynamics of the ITCZ in the model and its utility to downscale coarse- resolution paleoclimate simulations will be discussed.

Predicting plankton net community production in the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serret, Pablo; Robinson, Carol; Fernández, Emilio; Teira, Eva; Tilstone, Gavin; Pérez, Valesca

2009-07-01

We present, test and implement two contrasting models to predict euphotic zone net community production (NCP), which are based on 14C primary production (PO 14CP) to NCP relationships over two latitudinal (ca. 30°S-45°N) transects traversing highly productive and oligotrophic provinces of the Atlantic Ocean (NADR, CNRY, BENG, NAST-E, ETRA and SATL, Longhurst et al., 1995 [An estimation of global primary production in the ocean from satellite radiometer data. Journal of Plankton Research 17, 1245-1271]). The two models include similar ranges of PO 14CP and community structure, but differ in the relative influence of allochthonous organic matter in the oligotrophic provinces. Both models were used to predict NCP from PO 14CP measurements obtained during 11 local and three seasonal studies in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans, and from satellite-derived estimates of PO 14CP. Comparison of these NCP predictions with concurrent in situ measurements and geochemical estimates of NCP showed that geographic and annual patterns of NCP can only be predicted when the relative trophic importance of local vs. distant processes is similar in both modeled and predicted ecosystems. The system-dependent ability of our models to predict NCP seasonality suggests that trophic-level dynamics are stronger than differences in hydrodynamic regime, taxonomic composition and phytoplankton growth. The regional differences in the predictive power of both models confirm the existence of biogeographic differences in the scale of trophic dynamics, which impede the use of a single generalized equation to estimate global marine plankton NCP. This paper shows the potential of a systematic empirical approach to predict plankton NCP from local and satellite-derived P estimates.

A high-resolution OGCM simulation of the Tropical Pacific Ocean during the 1985-1994 TOGA period. Part I: Long equatorial waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boulanger, J. P.; Delecluse, F.; Maes, C.; Levy, C.

1995-01-01

A high resolution oceanic general circulation model of the three topical oceans is used to investigate long equatorial wave activity in the Pacific Ocean during the 1985-1994 TOGA period. Zonal wind stress forcing and simulated dynamic height are interpreted using techniques previously applied to data. Kelvin and first Rossby waves are observed propagating during all the period. A seasonal cycle and interannual anomalies are computed for each long equatorial wave. The east Pacific basin is mainly dominated by seasonal cycle variations while strong interannual anomalies are observed west of the dateline. Long wave interannual anomalies are then compared to wave coefficients simulated by a simple wind-forced model. Our results outline the major role played by wind forcing on interannual time scales in generating long equatorial waves. However, near both eastern and western boundaries, some differences can be attributed to long wave reflections. A comparison to wave coefficients calculated from GEOSAT sea-level data gives some insight of the model behavior.

Detailed geoid computations for GEOS-C altimeter experiment areas. [gravimetric geoid for Atlantic and northeast Pacific Ocean areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marsh, J. G.; Vincent, S.

1973-01-01

The GEOS-C spacecraft is scheduled to carry onboard a radar altimeter for the purpose of measuring the geoid undulations in oceanic areas. An independently derived geoid map will provide a valuable complement to these experiments. A detailed gravimetric geoid is presented for the Atlantic and northeast Pacific Ocean areas based upon a combination of the Goddard Space Flight Center GEM-6 earth model and surface 1 deg x 1 deg gravity data. As part of this work a number of satellite derived gravity models were evaluated to establish the model which best represented the long wave length features of the geoid in the above mentioned area. Comparisons of the detailed geoid with the astrogeodetic data provided by the National Ocean Survey and dynamically derived tracking station heights indicate that the accuracy of this combined geoid is on the order of 2 meters or better where data was dense and 5 to 7 meters where data was less dense.

Water-mass formation and Sverdrup dynamics; a comparison between climatology and a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, Matthew H.; Tomczak, Matthias; Stuart Godfrey, J.

1992-06-01

The coupled ocean-atmosphere model integrations of Manabe and Stouffer (1988) are compared with climatological distributions of depth-integrated flow and water-mass formation. The description of the ocean circulation in their two quasi-stable equilibria is extended to include an analysis of the horizontal and meridional transport as well as the water-mass formation and vertical motion in the model. In particular, the wind-driven Sverdrup flow is computed and compared with the actual mass transport streamfunction of the model. It is found that a Sverdrup model of depth-integrated flow captures the major features of the coupled model's ocean circulation, except near region of deep water formation, where the thermohaline field drives ocean currents and wind-driven flow becomes secondary. The coupled model fails to allow for a barotropic mass transport through the Indonesian Passage. Instead, only baroclinically driven fluxes of heat and freshwater are resolved through the Indonesian Archipelago. The Sverdrup model suggests that a barotropic throughflow would transport about 16 Sv from the Pacific to Indian Oceans. According to Sverdrup dynamics, this would serve to weaken the East Australian Current by about 16 Sv and strengthen the Agulhas Current by the same amount. Recent integrations of a World Ocean model with and without a barotropic throughflow in the Indonesian Passage suggest that the modelled heat transport is sensitive to the nature of flow through the Indonesian Archipelago. From' a comparison of observed and simulated water mass properties, it is shown that some major aspects of the global-scale water masses are not captured by the coupled model. This reveals a shortcoming of the model's ability to represent the global-scale heat and freshwater balances. For example, there is an unrealistically intense halocline in the immediate vicinity of Antartica, prohibiting the formation of bottom water in the Weddell and Ross Seas. Also, no low salinity traces of Antarctic or North Pacific Intermediate Water appear in the model integrations, primarily because there is no source of sufficiently dense bottom water adjacent to Antarctica. Without this dense bottom water, the "would-be" intermediate water at 60°S sinks to great depths and actually becomes the model ocean's bottom water. Then, the simulated bottom water is too fresh and warm in the climate model, matching the temperature—salinity signature of Antarctic Intermediate Water. In the North Atlantic, whilst deep water formation appears in one of the climate states of Manabe and Stouffer (1988), its downward penetration is not as deep as observed. This is because their deep North Atlantic is not ventilated by the thermohaline overturning of warm salty North Atlantic Deep Water. Instead, a deep overturning cell centred near the equator transports relatively fresh water into the region. In contrast, the location and strength of Central Water formation agrees well with climatology.

Ocean Chlorophyll as a Precursor of ENSO: An Earth System Modeling Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jong-Yeon; Dunne, John P.; Stock, Charles A.

2018-02-01

Ocean chlorophyll concentration, a proxy for phytoplankton, is strongly influenced by internal ocean dynamics such as those associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Observations show that ocean chlorophyll responses to ENSO generally lead sea surface temperature (SST) responses in the equatorial Pacific. A long-term global Earth system model simulation incorporating marine biogeochemical processes also exhibits a preceding chlorophyll response. In contrast to simulated SST anomalies, which significantly lag the wind-driven subsurface heat response to ENSO, chlorophyll anomalies respond rapidly. Iron was found to be the key factor connecting the simulated surface chlorophyll anomalies to the subsurface ocean response. Westerly wind bursts decrease central Pacific chlorophyll by reducing iron supply through wind-driven thermocline deepening but increase western Pacific chlorophyll by enhancing the influx of coastal iron from the maritime continent. Our results mechanistically support the potential for chlorophyll-based indices to inform seasonal ENSO forecasts beyond previously identified SST-based indices.

On the persistence and coherence of subpolar sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rong

2017-08-01

This study identifies key features associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in both observations and a fully coupled climate model, e.g., decadal persistence of monthly mean subpolar North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) anomalies, and high coherence at low frequency among subpolar NA SST/SSS, upper ocean heat/salt content, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) fingerprint. These key AMV features, which can be used to distinguish the AMV mechanism, cannot be explained by the slab ocean model results or the red noise process but are consistent with the ocean dynamics mechanism. This study also shows that at low frequency, the correlation and regression between net surface heat flux and SST anomalies are key indicators of the relative roles of oceanic versus atmospheric forcing in SST anomalies. The oceanic forcing plays a dominant role in the subpolar NA SST anomalies associated with the AMV.

The Geoid: Effect of compensated topography and uncompensated oceanic trenches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, C.G.; McNutt, Marcia K.

1982-01-01

The geoid is becoming increasingly important in interpretation of global tectonics. Most of the topography of the earth is isostatically compensated, so removal of its effect from the geoid is appropriate before tectonic modeling. The oceanic trenches, however, are dynamically depressed features and cannot be isostatically compensated in the classical way. Continental topography compensated at 35 km gives intracontinental geoidal undulations of up to 15 m over mountain ranges in a spherical harmonic expansion to order and degree 22. Oceanic topography compensated at 40 km, reasonable for the thermally supported long wavelengths, matches the +10 m difference between old continents and old oceans in a detailed NASA/GSFC geoid. Removing the assumed compensation for the oceanic trenches leaves negative anomalies of up to 9 m amplitude caused by their uncompensated mass deficit. This mass deficit acts as a partial "regional compensation" for the excess mass of the subducting slabs, and partly explains why geoidal (and gravity) anomalies over the cold slabs are less than thermal models predict.

Increased Ocean Heat Convergence Into the High Latitudes With CO2 Doubling Enhances Polar-Amplified Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, H. A.; Rasch, P. J.; Rose, B. E. J.

2017-10-01

We isolate the role of the ocean in polar climate change by directly evaluating how changes in ocean dynamics with quasi-equilibrium CO2 doubling impact high-latitude climate. With CO2 doubling, the ocean heat flux convergence (OHFC) shifts poleward in winter in both hemispheres. Imposing this pattern of perturbed OHFC in a global climate model results in a poleward shift in ocean-to-atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes (both sensible and latent) and sea ice retreat; the high latitudes warm, while the midlatitudes cool, thereby amplifying polar warming. Furthermore, midlatitude cooling is propagated to the polar midtroposphere on isentropic surfaces, augmenting the (positive) lapse rate feedback at high latitudes. These results highlight the key role played by the partitioning of meridional energy transport changes between the atmosphere and ocean in high-latitude climate change.

Acoustic Impact of Short-Term Ocean Variability in the Okinawa Trough

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-20

nature run: Generalized Digital Environment Model ( GDEM ) 3.0 climatologyfl], Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) synthetic profiles[2], Navy...potentially preferred for a particular class of applications, and thus a possible source of sound speed for estimates of acoustic transmission. Three, GDEM ...MODAS, and NCODA, are statistical products, and the other three are dynamic forecasts from NCOM. GDEM is a climatology based solely on historical

Dynamics and Stability of Acoustic Wavefronts in the Ocean

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

developed to solve the eikonal equation and calculate wavefront and ray trajectory displacements, which are required to be small over a correlation length...with a direct modeling of acoustic wavefronts in the ocean through numerical solution of the eikonal equation lies in the eikonal (and acoustic...travel time) being a multi-valued function of position. A number of computational approaches to solve the eikonal equation without ray tracing have been

How does mesoscale impact deep convection? Answers from ensemble Northwestern Mediterranean Sea simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldman, Robin; Herrmann, Marine; Somot, Samuel; Arsouze, Thomas; Benshila, Rachid; Bosse, Anthony; Chanut, Jérôme; Giordani, Hervé; Pennel, Romain; Sevault, Florence; Testor, Pierre

2017-04-01

Ocean deep convection is a major process of interaction between surface and deep ocean. The Gulf of Lions is a well-documented deep convection area in the Mediterranean Sea, and mesoscale dynamics is a known factor impacting this phenomenon. However, previous modelling studies don't allow to address the robustness of its impact with respect to the physical configuration and ocean intrinsic variability. In this study, the impact of mesoscale on ocean deep convection in the Gulf of Lions is investigated using a multi-resolution ensemble simulation of the northwestern Mediterranean sea. The eddy-permitting Mediterranean model NEMOMED12 (6km resolution) is compared to its eddy-resolving counterpart with the 2-way grid refinement AGRIF in the northwestern Mediterranean (2km resolution). We focus on the well-documented 2012-2013 period and on the multidecadal timescale (1979-2013). The impact of mesoscale on deep convection is addressed in terms of its mean and variability, its impact on deep water transformations and on associated dynamical structures. Results are interpreted by diagnosing regional mean and eddy circulation and using buoyancy budgets. We find a mean inhibition of deep convection by mesoscale with large interannual variability. It is associated with a large impact on mean and transient circulation and a large air-sea flux feedback.

Future changes in coastal upwelling ecosystems with global warming: The case of the California Current System.

PubMed

Xiu, Peng; Chai, Fei; Curchitser, Enrique N; Castruccio, Frederic S

2018-02-12

Coastal upwelling ecosystems are among the most productive ecosystems in the world, meaning that their response to climate change is of critical importance. Our understanding of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems is largely limited to the open ocean, mainly because coastal upwelling is poorly reproduced by current earth system models. Here, a high-resolution model is used to examine the response of nutrients and plankton dynamics to future climate change in the California Current System (CCS). The results show increased upwelling intensity associated with stronger alongshore winds in the coastal region, and enhanced upper-ocean stratification in both the CCS and open ocean. Warming of the open ocean forces isotherms downwards, where they make contact with water masses with higher nutrient concentrations, thereby enhancing the nutrient flux to the deep source waters of the CCS. Increased winds and eddy activity further facilitate upward nutrient transport to the euphotic zone. However, the plankton community exhibits a complex and nonlinear response to increased nutrient input, as the food web dynamics tend to interact differently. This analysis highlights the difficulty in understanding how the marine ecosystem responds to a future warming climate, given to range of relevant processes operating at different scales.

A dynamic ventilation model for gravity sewer networks.

PubMed

Wang, Y C; Nobi, N; Nguyen, T; Vorreiter, L

2012-01-01

To implement any effective odour and corrosion control technology in the sewer network, it is imperative that the airflow through gravity sewer airspaces be quantified. This paper presents a full dynamic airflow model for gravity sewer systems. The model, which is developed using the finite element method, is a compressible air transport model. The model has been applied to the North Head Sewerage Ocean Outfall System (NSOOS) and calibrated using the air pressure and airflow data collected during October 2008. Although the calibration is focused on forced ventilation, the model can be applied to natural ventilation as well.

Impact of improved momentum transfer coefficients on the dynamics and thermodynamics of the north Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parekh, Anant; Gnanaseelan, C.; Jayakumar, A.

2011-01-01

Long time series of in situ observations from the north Indian Ocean are used to compute the momentum transfer coefficients over the north Indian Ocean. The transfer coefficients behave nonlinearly for low winds (<4 m/s), when most of the known empirical relations assume linear relations. Impact of momentum transfer coefficients on the upper ocean parameters is studied using an ocean general circulation model. The model experiments revealed that the Arabian Sea and Equatorial Indian Ocean are more sensitive to the momentum transfer coefficients than the Bay of Bengal and south Indian Ocean. The impact of momentum transfer coefficients on sea surface temperature is up to 0.3°C-0.4°C, on mixed layer depth is up to 10 m, and on thermocline depth is up to 15 m. Furthermore, the impact on the zonal current is maximum over the equatorial Indian Ocean (i.e., about 0.12 m/s in May and 0.15 m/s in October; both May and October are the period of Wyrtki jets and the difference in current has potential impact on the seasonal mass transport). The Sverdrup transport has maximum impact in the Bay of Bengal (3 to 4 Sv in August), whereas the Ekman transport has maximum impact in the Arabian Sea (4 Sv during May to July). These highlight the potential impact of accurate momentum forcing on the results from current ocean models.

Dynamics of the Oligocene Southern Ocean: dinocysts as surface paleoceanographic tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bijl, Peter; Houben, Alexander; Brinkhuis, Henk; Sangiorgi, Francesca

2015-04-01

The Oligocene Epoch (33.9-23 Ma) is the time interval in the Cenozoic that saw the establishment of a continental-scale Antarctic ice-sheet. There remains a controversy about whether this early episode of a glaciated Antarctica was stable, or whether dynamic ice conditions prevailed. Most of this controversy persists due to the absence of chronostratigraphically well-dated sedimentary archives from close to the east Antarctic ice sheet, which has recorded a direct signal of glacial dynamics. Another major question is how the Oligocene Southern Ocean responded to the glaciation and subsequent evolution of the ice sheet, as the Southern ocean is a major player in global ocean circulation. Numerical modelling studies suggest that alongside the buildup of continental ice on Antarctica, first sea-ice conditions may have started along the East Antarctic Margin, but this conclusion lacks support from field evidence. Other numerical models predict that hysteresis effects within the ice sheet will make a continental-size Antarctic ice sheet rather insensitive to warming. In contrast, deep-water benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope records across the Oligocene suggest dramatic waxing and waning of Antarctic ice sheets. This paradox is as yet not solved Integrated Ocean Drilling Expedition 318 drilled the Antarctic Margin in 2010, and recovered sediments from the early phase of Antarctic glaciation. With this record, we can now evaluate the robustness of the results of the numerical models and the oceanographic changes with field data. Sediments recovered from Site U1356 yield a thick and relatively complete (albeit compromised by core gaps) Oligocene succession both of which are chrono-stratigraphically well-calibrated with use of nannoplankton- dinocyst- and magnetostratigraphy. Notably, this record yields well-preserved dinoflagellate cysts (dinocysts), which we can use to investigate surface-water condition changes across the Eocene-Oligocene to provide answers to these outstanding questions. In the earliest Oligocene, just after the onset of Antarctic glaciation, we document the installation of dinoflagellate cyst assemblages that bear remarkable similarity with those of the present-day Southern Ocean. We interpret this as a regime-shift in plankton communities in response to the installation of the seasonally highly productive sea-ice ecosystem. Throughout the Oligocene the pattern of eutrophic, influence continues, but the sea-ice-related cysts disappear about 1.5 Myrs following their appearance, consistent with a major rebound phase of the deep-sea oxygen isotopes. Surprisingly, throughout the Oligocene, the heterotrophic, sea-ice dinocysts are accompanied by episodically even abundant oligotrophic species. These results suggest fundamental differences in the physical oceanographic condition of the ACC compared to present-day and may explain why the Oligocene icehouse world is as dynamic as suggested by deep-water benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes. The direct field evidence definitely confirm a dynamic Oligocene icehouse, and imply that some fundamental physics or feedbacks are missing in the ice sheet models that predict a stable ice sheet.

(abstract) Using TOPEX/Poseidon Sea Level Observations to Test the Sensitivity of an Ocean Model to Wind Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng; Chao, Yi

1996-01-01

It has been demonstrated that current-generation global ocean general circulation models (OGCM) are able to simulate large-scale sea level variations fairly well. In this study, a GFDL/MOM-based OGCM was used to investigate its sensitivity to different wind forcing. Simulations of global sea level using wind forcing from the ERS-1 Scatterometer and the NMC operational analysis were compared to the observations made by the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) radar altimeter for a two-year period. The result of the study has demonstrated the sensitivity of the OGCM to the quality of wind forcing, as well as the synergistic use of two spaceborne sensors in advancing the study of wind-driven ocean dynamics.

Lagrangian water mass tracing from pseudo-Argo, model-derived salinity, tracer and velocity data: An application to Antarctic Intermediate Water in the South Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanke, Bruno; Speich, Sabrina; Rusciano, Emanuela

2015-01-01

We use the tracer and velocity fields of a climatological ocean model to investigate the ability of Argo-like data to estimate accurately water mass movements and transformations, in the style of analyses commonly applied to the output of ocean general circulation model. To this end, we introduce an algorithm for the reconstruction of a fully non-divergent three-dimensional velocity field from the simple knowledge of the model vertical density profiles and 1000-m horizontal velocity components. The validation of the technique consists in comparing the resulting pathways for Antarctic Intermediate Water in the South Atlantic Ocean to equivalent reference results based on the full model information available for velocity and tracers. We show that the inclusion of a wind-induced Ekman pumping and of a well-thought-out expression for vertical velocity at the level of the intermediate waters is essential for the reliable reproduction of quantitative Lagrangian analyses. Neglecting the seasonal variability of the velocity and tracer fields is not a significant source of errors, at least well below the permanent thermocline. These results give us confidence in the success of the adaptation of the algorithm to true gridded Argo data for investigating the dynamics of flows in the ocean interior.

Assimilation of satellite surface-height anomalies data into a Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) over the Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanajura, C. A. S.; Lima, L. N.; Belyaev, K. P.

2015-09-01

The data of sea height anomalies calculated along the tracks of the Jason-1 and Jason-2 satellites are assimilated into the HYCOM hydrodynamic ocean model developed at the University of Miami, USA. We used a known method of data assimilation, the so-called ensemble method of the optimal interpolation scheme (EnOI). In this work, we study the influence of the assimilation of sea height anomalies on other variables of the model. The behavior of the time series of the analyzed and predicted values of the model is compared with a reference calculation (free run), i.e., with the behavior of model variables without assimilation but under the same initial and boundary conditions. The results of the simulation are also compared with the independent data of observations on moorings of the Pilot Research Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) and the data of the ARGO floats using objective metrics. The investigations demonstrate that data assimilation under specific conditions results in a significant improvement of the 24-h prediction of the ocean state. The experiments also show that the assimilated fields of the ocean level contain a clearly pronounced mesoscale variability; thus they quantitatively differ from the dynamics obtained in the reference experiment.

Carbon dynamics of river corridors and the effects of human alterations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wohl, Ellen; Hall, Robert O.; Lininger, Katherine B.

Research in stream metabolism, gas exchange, and sediment dynamics indicates that rivers are an active component of the global carbon cycle and that river form and process can influence partitioning of terrestrially derived carbon among the atmosphere, geosphere, and ocean. Here we develop a conceptual model of carbon dynamics (inputs, outputs, and storage of organic carbon) within a river corridor, which includes the active channel and the riparian zone. The exchange of carbon from the channel to the riparian zone represents potential for storage of transported carbon not included in the “active pipe” model of organic carbon (OC) dynamics inmore » freshwater systems. The active pipe model recognizes that river processes influence carbon dynamics, but focuses on CO2 emissions from the channel and eventual delivery to the ocean. We also review how human activities directly and indirectly alter carbon dynamics within river corridors. We propose that dams create the most significant alteration of carbon dynamics within a channel, but that alteration of riparian zones, including the reduction of lateral connectivity between the channel and riparian zone, constitutes the most substantial change of carbon dynamics in river corridors. We argue that the morphology and processes of a river corridor regulate the ability to store, transform, and transport OC, and that people are pervasive modifiers of river morphology and processes. The net effect of most human activities, with the notable exception of reservoir construction, appears to be that of reducing the ability of river corridors to store OC within biota and sediment, which effectively converts river corridors to OC sources rather than OC sinks. We conclude by summarizing knowledge gaps in OC dynamics and the implications of our findings for managing OC dynamics within river corridors.« less

Carbon dynamics of river corridors and the effects of human alterations

DOE PAGES

Wohl, Ellen; Hall, Robert O.; Lininger, Katherine B.; ...

2017-06-22

Research in stream metabolism, gas exchange, and sediment dynamics indicates that rivers are an active component of the global carbon cycle and that river form and process can influence partitioning of terrestrially derived carbon among the atmosphere, geosphere, and ocean. Here we develop a conceptual model of carbon dynamics (inputs, outputs, and storage of organic carbon) within a river corridor, which includes the active channel and the riparian zone. The exchange of carbon from the channel to the riparian zone represents potential for storage of transported carbon not included in the “active pipe” model of organic carbon (OC) dynamics inmore » freshwater systems. The active pipe model recognizes that river processes influence carbon dynamics, but focuses on CO2 emissions from the channel and eventual delivery to the ocean. We also review how human activities directly and indirectly alter carbon dynamics within river corridors. We propose that dams create the most significant alteration of carbon dynamics within a channel, but that alteration of riparian zones, including the reduction of lateral connectivity between the channel and riparian zone, constitutes the most substantial change of carbon dynamics in river corridors. We argue that the morphology and processes of a river corridor regulate the ability to store, transform, and transport OC, and that people are pervasive modifiers of river morphology and processes. The net effect of most human activities, with the notable exception of reservoir construction, appears to be that of reducing the ability of river corridors to store OC within biota and sediment, which effectively converts river corridors to OC sources rather than OC sinks. We conclude by summarizing knowledge gaps in OC dynamics and the implications of our findings for managing OC dynamics within river corridors.« less

Carbon dynamics of river corridors and the effects of human alterations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wohl, Ellen; Hall, Robert O.; Lininger, Katherine B; Sutfin, Nicholas A.; Walters, David

2017-01-01

Research in stream metabolism, gas exchange, and sediment dynamics indicates that rivers are an active component of the global carbon cycle and that river form and process can influence partitioning of terrestrially derived carbon among the atmosphere, geosphere, and ocean. Here we develop a conceptual model of carbon dynamics (inputs, outputs, and storage of organic carbon) within a river corridor, which includes the active channel and the riparian zone. The exchange of carbon from the channel to the riparian zone represents potential for storage of transported carbon not included in the “active pipe” model of organic carbon (OC) dynamics in freshwater systems. The active pipe model recognizes that river processes influence carbon dynamics, but focuses on CO2 emissions from the channel and eventual delivery to the ocean. We also review how human activities directly and indirectly alter carbon dynamics within river corridors. We propose that dams create the most significant alteration of carbon dynamics within a channel, but that alteration of riparian zones, including the reduction of lateral connectivity between the channel and riparian zone, constitutes the most substantial change of carbon dynamics in river corridors. We argue that the morphology and processes of a river corridor regulate the ability to store, transform, and transport OC, and that people are pervasive modifiers of river morphology and processes. The net effect of most human activities, with the notable exception of reservoir construction, appears to be that of reducing the ability of river corridors to store OC within biota and sediment, which effectively converts river corridors to OC sources rather than OC sinks. We conclude by summarizing knowledge gaps in OC dynamics and the implications of our findings for managing OC dynamics within river corridors.

Can increased poleward oceanic heat flux explain the warm Cretaceous climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Mysak, Lawrence A.

1996-10-01

The poleward transport of heat in the mid-Cretaceous (100 Ma) is examined using an idealized coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The oceanic component consists of two zonally averaged basins representing the proto-Pacific and proto-Indian oceans and models the dynamics of the meridional thermohaline circulation. The atmospheric component is a simple energy and moisture balance model which includes the diffusive meridional transport of sensible heat and moisture. The ocean model is spun up with a variety of plausible Cretaceous surface temperature and salinity profiles, and a consistent atmosphere is objectively derived based on the resultant sea surface temperature and the surface heat and freshwater fluxes. The coupled model does not exhibit climate drift. Multiple equilibria of the coupled model are found that break the initial symmetry of the ocean circulation; several of these equilibria have one-cell (northern or southern sinking) thermohaline circulation patterns. Two main classes of circulation are found: circulations where the densest water is relatively cool and is formed at the polar latitudes and circulations where the densest water is warm, but quite saline, and the strongest sinking occurs at the tropics. In all cases, significant amounts of warm, saline bottom water are formed in the proto-Indian basin which modify the deepwater characteristics in the larger (proto-Pacific) basin. Temperatures in the deep ocean are warm, 10°-17°C, in agreement with benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope data. The poleward transport of heat in the modeled Cretaceous oceans is larger than in some comparable models of the present day thermohaline circulation and significantly larger than estimates of similar processes in the present-day ocean. It is consistently larger in the polar sinking cases when compared with that seen in the tropical sinking cases, but this represents an increase of only 10%. The largest increase over present-day model transports is in the atmospheric latent heat transport, where an increased hydrological cycle (especially in the tropical sinking cases) contributes up to an extra 1 PW of poleward heat transport. Better constraints on the oceanic deepwater circulation during this period are necessary before the meridional circulation can be unambiguously described.

Modeling a three-dimensional river plume over continental shelf using a 3D unstructured grid model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, R.T.; Casulli, V.; ,

2004-01-01

River derived fresh water discharging into an adjacent continental shelf forms a trapped river plume that propagates in a narrow region along the coast. These river plumes are real and they have been observed in the field. Many previous investigations have reported some aspects of the river plume properties, which are sensitive to stratification, Coriolis acceleration, winds (upwelling or downwelling), coastal currents, and river discharge. Numerical modeling of the dynamics of river plumes is very challenging, because the complete problem involves a wide range of vertical and horizontal scales. Proper simulations of river plume dynamics cannot be achieved without a realistic representation of the flow and salinity structure near the river mouth that controls the initial formation and propagation of the plume in the coastal ocean. In this study, an unstructured grid model was used for simulations of river plume dynamics allowing fine grid resolution in the river and in regions near the coast with a coarse grid in the far field of the river plume in the coastal ocean, in the vertical, fine fixed levels were used near the free surface, and coarse vertical levels were used over the continental shelf. The simulations have demonstrated the uniquely important role played by Coriolis acceleration. Without Coriolis acceleration, no trapped river plume can be formed no matter how favorable the ambient conditions might be. The simulation results show properties of the river plume and the characteristics of flow and salinity within the estuary; they are completely consistent with the physics of estuaries and coastal oceans.

Arctic Ocean Circulation Patterns Revealed by GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peralta-Ferriz, Cecilia; Morison, James H.; Wallace, John M.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Zhang, Jinlun

2013-04-01

EOF analysis of non-seasonal, month-to-month variations in GRACE derived Arctic Ocean bottom pressure (OBP) yield three dominant modes. The first mode is a wintertime basin wide variation in mass associated with high atmospheric pressure (SLP) over Scandinavia. The second mode is a shift of mass from the central Arctic Ocean to the Siberian shelves due to low pressure over the basins, associated with the strength of the Arctic Oscillation. The third mode is a shift in mass between the Eastern and Western Siberian shelves, related to strength of the Beaufort High mainly in summer, and to eastward alongshore winds on the Barents Sea in winter. The PIOMAS and ECCO2 modeled OBP are consistent with the form of these modes and provide context in terms of variations in sea surface height. The models are used to investigate the ocean dynamics associated with each mode of OBP variability.

Predicting interactions among fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification in a marine system with whole-ecosystem models.

PubMed

Griffith, Gary P; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Gorton, Rebecca; Richardson, Anthony J

2012-12-01

An important challenge for conservation is a quantitative understanding of how multiple human stressors will interact to mitigate or exacerbate global environmental change at a community or ecosystem level. We explored the interaction effects of fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification over time on 60 functional groups of species in the southeastern Australian marine ecosystem. We tracked changes in relative biomass within a coupled dynamic whole-ecosystem modeling framework that included the biophysical system, human effects, socioeconomics, and management evaluation. We estimated the individual, additive, and interactive effects on the ecosystem and for five community groups (top predators, fishes, benthic invertebrates, plankton, and primary producers). We calculated the size and direction of interaction effects with an additive null model and interpreted results as synergistic (amplified stress), additive (no additional stress), or antagonistic (reduced stress). Individually, only ocean acidification had a negative effect on total biomass. Fishing and ocean warming and ocean warming with ocean acidification had an additive effect on biomass. Adding fishing to ocean warming and ocean acidification significantly changed the direction and magnitude of the interaction effect to a synergistic response on biomass. The interaction effect depended on the response level examined (ecosystem vs. community). For communities, the size, direction, and type of interaction effect varied depending on the combination of stressors. Top predator and fish biomass had a synergistic response to the interaction of all three stressors, whereas biomass of benthic invertebrates responded antagonistically. With our approach, we were able to identify the regional effects of fishing on the size and direction of the interacting effects of ocean warming and ocean acidification. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Ocean current surface measurement using dynamic elevations obtained by the GEOS-3 radar altimeter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leitao, C. D.; Huang, N. E.; Parra, C. G.

1977-01-01

Remote Sensing of the ocean surface from the GEOS-3 satellite using radar altimeter data has confirmed that the altimeter can detect the dynamic ocean topographic elevations relative to an equipotential surface, thus resulting in a reliable direct measurement of the ocean surface. Maps of the ocean dynamic topography calculated over a one month period and with 20 cm contour interval are prepared for the last half of 1975. The Gulf Stream is observed by the rapid slope change shown by the crowding of contours. Cold eddies associated with the current are seen as roughly circular depressions.

Global mean dynamic topography based on GOCE data and Wiener filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilardoni, Maddalena; Reguzzoni, Mirko; Albertella, Alberta

2015-04-01

A mean dynamic ocean topography (MDT) has been computed by using a GOCE-only gravity model and a given mean sea surface (MSS) obtained from satellite altimetry. Since the used gravity model, i.e. the fifth release of the time-wise solution covering the full mission lifetime, is truncated at a maximum harmonic degree of 280, the obtained MDT has to be consistently filtered. This has been done globally by using the spherical harmonic representation and following a Wiener minimization principle. This global filtering approach is convenient from the computational point of view but requires to have MDT values all over the Earth surface and therefore to fill the continents with fictitious data. The main improvements with respect to the already presented results are in the MDT filling procedure (to guarantee that the global signal has the same covariance of the one over the oceans), in the error modelling of the input MSS and in the error estimation of the filtered MDT and of the corresponding geostrophic velocities. The impact of GOCE data in the ocean circulation global modelling has been assessed by comparing the pattern of the obtained geostrophic currents with those computed by using EGM2008. Comparisons with independent circulation data based on drifters and other MDT models have been also performed with the aim of evaluating the accuracy of the obtained results.

Mesosacle eddies in a high resolution OGCM and coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Liu, H.; Lin, P.

2017-12-01

The present study described high-resolution climate modeling efforts including oceanic, atmospheric and coupled general circulation model (GCM) at the state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP). The high-resolution OGCM is established based on the latest version of the LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model (LICOM2.1), but its horizontal resolution and vertical resolution are increased to 1/10° and 55 layers, respectively. Forced by the surface fluxes from the reanalysis and observed data, the model has been integrated for approximately more than 80 model years. Compared with the simulation of the coarse-resolution OGCM, the eddy-resolving OGCM not only better simulates the spatial-temporal features of mesoscale eddies and the paths and positions of western boundary currents but also reproduces the large meander of the Kuroshio Current and its interannual variability. Another aspect, namely, the complex structures of equatorial Pacific currents and currents in the coastal ocean of China, are better captured due to the increased horizontal and vertical resolution. Then we coupled the high resolution OGCM to NCAR CAM4 with 25km resolution, in which the mesoscale air-sea interaction processes are better captured.

Potential role of vegetation dynamics on recent extreme droughts over tropical South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.

2017-12-01

Tropical South America is a drought hot spot. In slightly over a decade (2005-2016), the region encountered three extreme droughts (2005, 2010, and 2016). Recurrent extreme droughts not only impact the region's eco-hydrology and socio-economy, but are also globally important as they can transform the planet's largest rainforest, the Amazon, from a carbon sink to a carbon source. Understanding drought drivers and mechanisms underlying extreme droughts in tropical South America can help better project the fate of the Amazon rainforest in a changing climate. In this study we use a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4) coupled with a comprehensive land-surface model (CLM4.5) to study the present-day hydroclimate of the region, focusing specifically on what might have caused the frequent recurrence of extreme droughts. In the context of observation natural variability of the global oceanic forcing, we tackle the role of land-atmosphere interactions and ran the model with and without dynamic vegetation to study how vegetation dynamics and carbon-nitrogen cycles may have influenced the drought characteristics. Our results demonstrate skillful simulation of the South American climate in the model, and indicate substantial sensitivity of the region's hydroclimatology to vegetation dynamics. This presentation will compare the role of global oceanic forcing versus regional land surface feedback in the recent recurrent droughts, and will characterize the effects of vegetation dynamics in enhancing the drought severity. Preliminary results on future projections of the regional ecosystem and droughts perspective will be also presented.

Ocean surface partitioning strategies using ocean colour remote Sensing: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krug, Lilian Anne; Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Barbosa, Ana B.

2017-06-01

The ocean surface is organized into regions with distinct properties reflecting the complexity of interactions between environmental forcing and biological responses. The delineation of these functional units, each with unique, homogeneous properties and underlying ecosystem structure and dynamics, can be defined as ocean surface partitioning. The main purposes and applications of ocean partitioning include the evaluation of particular marine environments; generation of more accurate satellite ocean colour products; assimilation of data into biogeochemical and climate models; and establishment of ecosystem-based management practices. This paper reviews the diverse approaches implemented for ocean surface partition into functional units, using ocean colour remote sensing (OCRS) data, including their purposes, criteria, methods and scales. OCRS offers a synoptic, high spatial-temporal resolution, multi-decadal coverage of bio-optical properties, relevant to the applications and value of ocean surface partitioning. In combination with other biotic and/or abiotic data, OCRS-derived data (e.g., chlorophyll-a, optical properties) provide a broad and varied source of information that can be analysed using different delineation methods derived from subjective, expert-based to unsupervised learning approaches (e.g., cluster, fuzzy and empirical orthogonal function analyses). Partition schemes are applied at global to mesoscale spatial coverage, with static (time-invariant) or dynamic (time-varying) representations. A case study, the highly heterogeneous area off SW Iberian Peninsula (NE Atlantic), illustrates how the selection of spatial coverage and temporal representation affects the discrimination of distinct environmental drivers of phytoplankton variability. Advances in operational oceanography and in the subject area of satellite ocean colour, including development of new sensors, algorithms and products, are among the potential benefits from extended use, scope and applications of ocean surface partitioning using OCRS.

The absolute dynamic ocean topography (ADOT)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosch, Wolfgang; Savcenko, Roman

The sea surface slopes relative to the geoid (an equipotential surface) basically carry the in-formation on the absolute velocity field of the surface circulation. Pure oceanographic models may remain unspecific with respect to the absolute level of the ocean topography. In contrast, the geodetic approach to estimate the ocean topography as difference between sea level and the geoid gives by definition an absolute dynamic ocean topography (ADOT). This approach requires, however, a consistent treatment of geoid and sea surface heights, the first being usually derived from a band limited spherical harmonic series of the Earth gravity field and the second observed with much higher spectral resolution by satellite altimetry. The present contribution shows a procedure for estimating the ADOT along the altimeter profiles, preserving as much sea surface height details as the consistency w.r.t. the geoid heights will allow. The consistent treatment at data gaps and the coast is particular demanding and solved by a filter correction. The ADOT profiles are inspected for their innocent properties towards the coast and compared to external estimates of the ocean topography or the velocity field of the surface circulation as derived, for example, by ARGO floats.

Sensitivity experiments with a one-dimensional coupled plume - iceflow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckmann, Johanna; Perette, Mahé; Alexander, David; Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-04-01

Over the last few decades Greenland Ice sheet mass balance has become increasingly negative, caused by enhanced surface melting and speedup of the marine-terminating outlet glaciers at the ice sheet margins. Glaciers speedup has been related, among other factors, to enhanced submarine melting, which in turn is caused by warming of the surrounding ocean and less obviously, by increased subglacial discharge. While ice-ocean processes potentially play an important role in recent and future mass balance changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet, their physical understanding remains poorly understood. In this work we performed numerical experiments with a one-dimensional plume model coupled to a one-dimensional iceflow model. First we investigated the sensitivity of submarine melt rate to changes in ocean properties (ocean temperature and salinity), to the amount of subglacial discharge and to the glacier's tongue geometry itself. A second set of experiments investigates the response of the coupled model, i.e. the dynamical response of the outlet glacier to altered submarine melt, which results in new glacier geometry and updated melt rates.

Lagrangian predictability characteristics of an Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacorata, Guglielmo; Palatella, Luigi; Santoleri, Rosalia

2014-11-01

The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) Ocean Model, provided by INGV, has been chosen as case study to analyze Lagrangian trajectory predictability by means of a dynamical systems approach. To this regard, numerical trajectories are tested against a large amount of Mediterranean drifter data, used as sample of the actual tracer dynamics across the sea. The separation rate of a trajectory pair is measured by computing the Finite-Scale Lyapunov Exponent (FSLE) of first and second kind. An additional kinematic Lagrangian model (KLM), suitably treated to avoid "sweeping"-related problems, has been nested into the MFS in order to recover, in a statistical sense, the velocity field contributions to pair particle dispersion, at mesoscale level, smoothed out by finite resolution effects. Some of the results emerging from this work are: (a) drifter pair dispersion displays Richardson's turbulent diffusion inside the [10-100] km range, while numerical simulations of MFS alone (i.e., without subgrid model) indicate exponential separation; (b) adding the subgrid model, model pair dispersion gets very close to observed data, indicating that KLM is effective in filling the energy "mesoscale gap" present in MFS velocity fields; (c) there exists a threshold size beyond which pair dispersion becomes weakly sensitive to the difference between model and "real" dynamics; (d) the whole methodology here presented can be used to quantify model errors and validate numerical current fields, as far as forecasts of Lagrangian dispersion are concerned.

Studies of regional-scale climate variability and change. Hidden Markov models and coupled ocean-atmosphere modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghil, M.; Kravtsov, S.; Robertson, A. W.

2008-10-14

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding, in which we had developed a twin approach of probabilistic network (PN) models (sometimes called dynamic Bayesian networks) and intermediate-complexity coupled ocean-atmosphere models (ICMs) to identify the predictable modes of climate variability and to investigate their impacts on the regional scale. We had developed a family of PNs (similar to Hidden Markov Models) to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale GCM seasonal predictions. Using an idealized atmospheric model, we had established a novel mechanism through which ocean-induced sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies might influencemore » large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on interannual and longer time scales; we had found similar patterns in a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice model. The goal of the this continuation project was to build on these ICM results and PN model development to address prediction of rainfall and temperature statistics at the local scale, associated with global climate variability and change, and to investigate the impact of the latter on coupled ocean-atmosphere modes. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling together with the development of associated software; new intermediate coupled models; a new methodology of inverse modeling for linking ICMs with observations and GCM results; and, observational studies of decadal and multi-decadal natural climate results, informed by ICM results.« less

Approach for estimating the dynamic physical thresholds of phytoplankton production and biomass in the tropical-subtropical Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez-Ocampo, E.; Gaxiola-Castro, G.; Durazo, Reginaldo

2017-06-01

Threshold is defined as the point where small changes in an environmental driver produce large responses in the ecosystem. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to estimate the thresholds and contribution of key dynamic physical variables in terms of phytoplankton production and variations in biomass in the tropical-subtropical Pacific Ocean off Mexico. The statistical approach used here showed that thresholds were shallower for primary production than for phytoplankton biomass (pycnocline < 68 m and mixed layer < 30 m versus pycnocline < 45 m and mixed layer < 80 m) but were similar for absolute dynamic topography and Ekman pumping (ADT < 59 cm and EkP > 0 cm d-1 versus ADT < 60 cm and EkP > 4 cm d-1). The relatively high productivity on seasonal (spring) and interannual (La Niña 2008) scales was linked to low ADT (45-60 cm) and shallow pycnocline depth (9-68 m) and mixed layer (8-40 m). Statistical estimations from satellite data indicated that the contributions of ocean circulation to phytoplankton variability were 18% (for phytoplankton biomass) and 46% (for phytoplankton production). Although the statistical contribution of models constructed with in situ integrated chlorophyll a and primary production data was lower than the one obtained with satellite data (11%), the fits were better for the former, based on the residual distribution. The results reported here suggest that estimated thresholds may reliably explain the spatial-temporal variations of phytoplankton in the tropical-subtropical Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the High-Resolution Community Earth System Model and the Impact of Ocean Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hui; Sriver, Ryan L.

2018-01-01

High-resolution Atmosphere General Circulation Models (AGCMs) are capable of directly simulating realistic tropical cyclone (TC) statistics, providing a promising approach for TC-climate studies. Active air-sea coupling in a coupled model framework is essential to capturing TC-ocean interactions, which can influence TC-climate connections on interannual to decadal time scales. Here we investigate how the choices of ocean coupling can affect the directly simulated TCs using high-resolution configurations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We performed a suite of high-resolution, multidecadal, global-scale CESM simulations in which the atmosphere (˜0.25° grid spacing) is configured with three different levels of ocean coupling: prescribed climatological sea surface temperature (SST) (ATM), mixed layer ocean (SLAB), and dynamic ocean (CPL). We find that different levels of ocean coupling can influence simulated TC frequency, geographical distributions, and storm intensity. ATM simulates more storms and higher overall storm intensity than the coupled simulations. It also simulates higher TC track density over the eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic, while TC tracks are relatively sparse within CPL and SLAB for these regions. Storm intensification and the maximum wind speed are sensitive to the representations of local surface flux feedbacks in different coupling configurations. Key differences in storm number and distribution can be attributed to variations in the modeled large-scale climate mean state and variability that arise from the combined effect of intrinsic model biases and air-sea interactions. Results help to improve our understanding about the representation of TCs in high-resolution coupled Earth system models, with important implications for TC-climate applications.

A delay differential model of ENSO variability: parametric instability and the distribution of extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaliapin, I.; Ghil, M.; Thompson, S.

2007-12-01

We consider a Delay Differential Equation (DDE) model for El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The model combines two key mechanisms that participate in the ENSO dynamics: delayed negative feedback and seasonal forcing. Descriptive and metric stability analyses of the model are performed in a complete 3D space of its physically relevant parameters. Existence of two regimes --- stable and unstable --- is reported. The domains of the regimes are separated by a sharp neutral curve in the parameter space. The detailed structure of the neutral curve become very complicated (possibly fractal), and individual trajectories within the unstable region become highly complex (possibly chaotic) as the atmosphere-ocean coupling increases. In the unstable regime, spontaneous transitions in the mean "temperature" (i.e., thermocline depth), period, and extreme annual values occur, for purely periodic, seasonal forcing. This indicates (via the continuous dependence theorem) the existence of numerous unstable solutions responsible for the complex dynamics of the system. In the stable regime, only periodic solutions are found. Our results illustrate the role of the distinct parameters of ENSO variability, such as strength of seasonal forcing vs. atmosphere ocean coupling and propagation period of oceanic waves across the Tropical Pacific. The model reproduces, among other phenomena, the Devil's bleachers (caused by period locking) documented in other ENSO models, such as nonlinear PDEs and GCMs, as well as in certain observations. We expect such behavior in much more detailed and realistic models, where it is harder to describe its causes as completely.

Dynamics of Andaman Sea circulation and its role in connecting the equatorial Indian Ocean to the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, Abhisek; Shankar, D.; McCreary, J. P.; Vinayachandran, P. N.; Mukherjee, A.

2017-04-01

Circulation in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is driven not only by local winds, but are also strongly forced by the reflection of equatorial Kelvin waves (EKWs) from the eastern boundary of the Indian Ocean. The equatorial influence attains its peak during the monsoon-transition period when strong eastward currents force the strong EKWs along the equator. The Andaman Sea, lying between the Andaman and Nicobar island chains to its west and Indonesia, Thailand, and Myanmar to the south, east, and north, is connected to the equatorial ocean and the BoB by three primary passages, the southern (6°N), middle (10°N), and northern (15°N) channels. We use ocean circulation models, together with satellite altimeter data, to study the pathways by which equatorial signals pass through the Andaman Sea to the BoB and associated dynamical interactions in the process. The mean coastal circulation within the Andaman Sea and around the islands is primarily driven by equatorial forcing, with the local winds forcing a weak sea-level signal. On the other hand, the current forced by local winds is comparable to that forced remotely from the equator. Our results suggest that the Andaman and Nicobar Islands not only influence the circulation within the Andaman Sea, but also significantly alter the circulation in the interior bay and along the east coast of India, implying that they need to be represented accurately in numerical models of the Indian Ocean.

Further Studies on Oceanic Biogeochemistry and Carbon Cycling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Signorini, S. R.; McClain, C. R.

2003-01-01

This TM consists of two chapters. Chapter I describes the development of a coupled, one-dimensional biogeochemical model using turbulence closure mixed layer (TCMLM) dynamics. The model is applied to the Sargasso Sea at the BATS (Bermuda Atlantic Time Series) site and the results are compared with a previous model study in the same region described in NASNTP-2001-209991. The use of the TCMLM contributed to some improvements in the model simulation of chlorophyll, PAR, nitrate, phosphate, and oxygen, but most importantly, the current model achieved good agreement with the data with much more realistic background eddy diffusivity. However, off-line calculations of horizontal transport of biogeochemical properties revealed that one-dimensional dynamics can only provide a limited assessment of the nutrient and carbon balances at BATS. Future studies in the BATS region will require comprehensive three-dimensional field studies, combined with three-dimensional eddy resolving numerical experiments, to adequately quantify the impact of the local and remote forcing on ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycling. Chapter II addresses the sensitivity of global sea-air CO, flux estimates to wind speed, temperature, and salinity. Sensitivity analyses of sea-air CO, flux to wind speed climatologies, gas transfer algorithms, SSS and SST were conducted for the global oceans and regional domains. Large uncertainties in the global sea-air flux are identified, primarily due to the different gas transfer algorithms used. The sensitivity of the sea-air flux to SST and SSS is similar in magnitude to the effect of using different wind climatologies. Globally, the mean ocean uptake of CO, changes by 5 to 16%, depending upon the combination of SST and SSS used.

The ocean quasi-homogeneous layer model and global cycle of carbon dioxide in system of atmosphere-ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glushkov, Alexander; Glushkov, Alexander; Loboda, Nataliya; Khokhlov, Valery; Serbov, Nikoly; Svinarenko, Andrey

The purpose of this paper is carrying out the detailed model of the CO2 global turnover in system of "atmosphere-ocean" with using the ocean quasi-homogeneous layer model. Practically all carried out models are functioning in the average annual regime and accounting for the carbon distribution in bio-sphere in most general form (Glushkov et al, 2003). We construct a modified model for cycle of the carbon dioxide, which allows to reproduce a season dynamics of carbon turnover in ocean with account of zone ocean structure (up quasi-homogeneous layer, thermocline and deepest layer). It is taken into account dependence of the CO2 transfer through the bounder between atmosphere and ocean upon temperature of water and air, wind velocity, buffer mechanism of the CO2 dissolution. The same program is realized for atmosphere part of whole system. It is obtained a tempo-ral and space distribution for concentration of non-organic carbon in ocean, partial press of dissolute CO2 and value of exchange on the border between atmosphere and ocean. It is estimated a role of the wind intermixing of the up ocean layer. The increasing of this effect leads to increasing the plankton mass and further particles, which are transferred by wind, contribute to more quick immersion of microscopic shells and organic material. It is fulfilled investigation of sen-sibility of the master differential equations system solutions from the model parameters. The master differential equa-tions system, describing a dynamics of the CO2 cycle, is numerically integrated by the four order Runge-Cutt method under given initial values of valuables till output of solution on periodic regime. At first it is indicated on possible real-zation of the chaos scenario in system. On our data, the difference of the average annual values for the non-organic car-bon concentration in the up quasi-homogeneous layer between equator and extreme southern zone is 0.15 mol/m3, be-tween the equator and extreme northern zone is 0.12 mol/m3. the maximum amplitude of season oscillations (40° -50° n.l.) is 0.07 mol/m3. A link between global cycle of carbon dioxide and global climate change is investigated. Refrences: Glushkov A.V., Khokhlov V.N., Prepelitsa G.P., Tsenenko I.A., Optics of atmosphere and ocean.-2004.-Vol.14,N7.-p.219-223; Glushkov A.V., Loboda N.S., Khokhlov V.N., Atmospheric Research (Elseiver).-2005.-Vol.77.-P.100-113;Glushkov A.V., Loboda N.S., Khokhlov V.N., Lovett L. Journal of Hydrology (Elseiver).-2006.-Vol. 322. N1-4.-P.14-24; Glushkov A.V., Khokhlov V.N., Loboda N.S., Quart.J.Royal Meteorol. Soc.-2006.-Vol.132.- pp.447-465; Glushkov A.V., Khokhlov V.N., Loboda N.S., Ponomarenko E.L., Environm. Inf. Arch.-2003.-Vol.1.-P.125-130.

Anomalous intraseasonal events in the thermocline ridge region of Southern Tropical Indian Ocean and their regional impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayakumar, A.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2012-03-01

The present study explores the mechanisms responsible for the strong intraseasonal cooling events in the Thermocline Ridge region of the southwestern Indian Ocean. Air sea interface and oceanic processes associated with Madden Julian Oscillation are studied using an Ocean General Circulation Model and satellite observations. Sensitivity experiments are designed to understand the ocean response to intraseasonal forcing with a special emphasis on 2002 cooling events, which recorded the strongest intraseasonal perturbations during the last well-observed decade. This event is characterized by anomalous Walker circulation over the tropical Indian Ocean and persistent intraseasonal heat flux anomaly for a longer duration than is typical for similar events (but without any favorable preconditioning of ocean basic state at the interannual timescale). The model heat budget analysis during 1996 to 2007 revealed an in-phase relationship between atmospheric fluxes associated with Madden Julian Oscillation and the subsurface oceanic processes during the intense cooling events of 2002. The strong convection, reduced shortwave radiation and increased evaporation have contributed to the upper ocean heat loss in addition to the slower propagation of active phase of convection, which supported the integration of longer duration of forcing. The sensitivity experiments revealed that dynamic response of ocean through entrainment at the intraseasonal timescale primarily controls the biological response during the event, with oceanic interannual variability playing a secondary role. This study further speculates the role of oceanic intraseasonal variability in the 2002 droughts over Indian subcontinent.

Modelling Watershed and Estuarine Controls on Salt Marsh Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousefi Lalimi, F.; Marani, M.; Murray, A. B.; D'Alpaos, A.

2017-12-01

The formation and evolution of tidal platforms have been extensively studied through observations and models, describing landform dynamics as a result of the local interactions and feedbacks among hydrodynamics, vegetation, and sediment transport. However, existing work mainly focuses on individual marsh platforms and, possibly, their immediate surrounding, such that the influence and controls on marsh dynamics of inland areas (through fluvial inputs) and of exchanges with the ocean have not been comprehensively and simultaneously accounted for. Here, we develop and use a process-based model to evaluate the relative role of watershed, estuarine, and ocean controls on salt marsh accretionary and depositional/erosional dynamics and define how these factors interact to determine salt marsh resilience to environmental change at the whole-estuary scale. Our results, in line with previous work, show that no stable equilibrium exists for the erosional dynamics of the marsh/tidal flat boundary. In addition, we find that under some circumstances, vertical accretion/erosion dynamics can lead to transitions between salt marsh and tidal flat equilibrium states that occur much more rapidly than marsh/tidal flat boundary erosion or accretion could. We further define, in the multidimensional space of estuarine-scale morphodynamic forcings, the basins of attractions leading to marsh-dominated and tidal-flat-dominated estuaries. The relatively slow dynamics asymptotically leading to marsh- or tidal-flat- dominance in many cases suggest that estuaries are likely to be found, at any given time, in a transition state dictated by temporal variations in environmental forcings.

Seasonality of submesoscale dynamics in the Kuroshio Extension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocha, Cesar B.; Gille, Sarah T.; Chereskin, Teresa K.; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2016-11-01

Recent studies show that the vigorous seasonal cycle of the mixed layer modulates upper ocean submesoscale turbulence. Here we provide model-based evidence that the seasonally changing upper ocean stratification in the Kuroshio Extension also modulates submesoscale (here 10-100 km) inertia-gravity waves. Summertime restratification weakens submesoscale turbulence but enhances inertia-gravity waves near the surface. Thus, submesoscale turbulence and inertia-gravity waves undergo vigorous out-of-phase seasonal cycles. These results imply a strong seasonal modulation of the accuracy of geostrophic velocity diagnosed from submesoscale sea surface height delivered by the Surface Water and Ocean Topography satellite mission.

A reanalysis dataset of the South China Sea.

PubMed

Zeng, Xuezhi; Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Zhijin; Qi, Yiquan; Chen, Rongyu

2014-01-01

Ocean reanalysis provides a temporally continuous and spatially gridded four-dimensional estimate of the ocean state for a better understanding of the ocean dynamics and its spatial/temporal variability. Here we present a 19-year (1992-2010) high-resolution ocean reanalysis dataset of the upper ocean in the South China Sea (SCS) produced from an ocean data assimilation system. A wide variety of observations, including in-situ temperature/salinity profiles, ship-measured and satellite-derived sea surface temperatures, and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimetry, are assimilated into the outputs of an ocean general circulation model using a multi-scale incremental three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme, yielding a daily high-resolution reanalysis dataset of the SCS. Comparisons between the reanalysis and independent observations support the reliability of the dataset. The presented dataset provides the research community of the SCS an important data source for studying the thermodynamic processes of the ocean circulation and meso-scale features in the SCS, including their spatial and temporal variability.

A reanalysis dataset of the South China Sea

PubMed Central

Zeng, Xuezhi; Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Zhijin; Qi, Yiquan; Chen, Rongyu

2014-01-01

Ocean reanalysis provides a temporally continuous and spatially gridded four-dimensional estimate of the ocean state for a better understanding of the ocean dynamics and its spatial/temporal variability. Here we present a 19-year (1992–2010) high-resolution ocean reanalysis dataset of the upper ocean in the South China Sea (SCS) produced from an ocean data assimilation system. A wide variety of observations, including in-situ temperature/salinity profiles, ship-measured and satellite-derived sea surface temperatures, and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimetry, are assimilated into the outputs of an ocean general circulation model using a multi-scale incremental three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme, yielding a daily high-resolution reanalysis dataset of the SCS. Comparisons between the reanalysis and independent observations support the reliability of the dataset. The presented dataset provides the research community of the SCS an important data source for studying the thermodynamic processes of the ocean circulation and meso-scale features in the SCS, including their spatial and temporal variability. PMID:25977803

Resolving Discrepancies Between Observed and Predicted Dynamic Topography on Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, F. D.; Hoggard, M.; White, N. J.

2017-12-01

Compilations of well-resolved oceanic residual depth measurements suggest that present-day dynamic topography differs from that predicted by geodynamic simulations in two significant respects. At short wavelengths (λ ≤ 5,000 km), much larger amplitude variations are observed, whereas at long wavelengths (λ > 5,000 km), observed dynamic topography is substantially smaller. Explaining the cause of this discrepancy with a view to reconciling these different approaches is central to constraining the structure and dynamics of the deep Earth. Here, we first convert shear wave velocity to temperature using an experimentally-derived anelasticity model. This relationship is calibrated using a pressure and temperature-dependent plate model that satisfies age-depth subsidence, heat flow measurements, and seismological constraints on the depth to the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. In this way, we show that, at short-wavelengths, observed dynamic topography is consistent with ±150 ºC asthenospheric temperature anomalies. These inferred thermal buoyancy variations are independently verified by temperature measurements derived from geochemical analyses of mid-ocean ridge basalts. Viscosity profiles derived from the anelasticity model suggest that the asthenosphere has an average viscosity that is two orders of magnitude lower than that of the underlying upper mantle. The base of this low-viscosity layer coincides with a peak in azimuthal anisotropy observed in recent seismic experiments. This agreement implies that lateral asthenospheric flow is rapid with respect to the underlying upper mantle. We conclude that improved density and viscosity models of the uppermost mantle, which combine a more comprehensive physical description of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system with recent seismic tomographic models, can help to resolve spectral discrepancies between observed and predicted dynamic topography. Finally, we explore possible solutions to the long-wavelength discrepancy that exploit the velocity to density conversion described above combined with radial variation of mantle viscosity.

Downscaling Ocean Conditions: Initial Results using a Quasigeostrophic and Realistic Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katavouta, Anna; Thompson, Keith

2014-05-01

Previous theoretical work (Henshaw et al, 2003) has shown that the small-scale modes of variability of solutions of the unforced, incompressible Navier-Stokes equation, and Burgers' equation, can be reconstructed with surprisingly high accuracy from the time history of a few of the large-scale modes. Motivated by this theoretical work we first describe a straightforward method for assimilating information on the large scales in order to recover the small scale oceanic variability. The method is based on nudging in specific wavebands and frequencies and is similar to the so-called spectral nudging method that has been used successfully for atmospheric downscaling with limited area models (e.g. von Storch et al., 2000). The validity of the method is tested using a quasigestrophic model configured to simulate a double ocean gyre separated by an unstable mid-ocean jet. It is shown that important features of the ocean circulation including the position of the meandering mid-ocean jet and associated pinch-off eddies can indeed be recovered from the time history of a small number of large-scales modes. The benefit of assimilating additional time series of observations from a limited number of locations, that alone are too sparse to significantly improve the recovery of the small scales using traditional assimilation techniques, is also demonstrated using several twin experiments. The final part of the study outlines the application of the approach using a realistic high resolution (1/36 degree) model, based on the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) modeling framework, configured for the Scotian Shelf of the east coast of Canada. The large scale conditions used in this application are obtained from the HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) + NCODA (Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation) global 1/12 degree analysis product. Henshaw, W., Kreiss, H.-O., Ystrom, J., 2003. Numerical experiments on the interaction between the larger- and the small-scale motion of the Navier-Stokes equations. Multiscale Modeling and Simulation 1, 119-149. von Storch, H., Langenberg, H., Feser, F., 2000. A spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling purposes. Monthly Weather Review 128, 3664-3673.

Climate Process Team "Representing calving and iceberg dynamics in global climate models"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergienko, O. V.; Adcroft, A.; Amundson, J. M.; Bassis, J. N.; Hallberg, R.; Pollard, D.; Stearns, L. A.; Stern, A. A.

2016-12-01

Iceberg calving accounts for approximately 50% of the ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. By changing a glacier's geometry, calving can also significantly perturb the glacier's stress-regime far upstream of the grounding line. This process can enhance discharge of ice across the grounding line. Once calved, icebergs drift into the open ocean where they melt, injecting freshwater to the ocean and affecting the large-scale ocean circulation. The spatial redistribution of the freshwater flux have strong impact on sea-ice formation and its spatial variability. A Climate Process Team "Representing calving and iceberg dynamics in global climate models" was established in the fall 2014. The major objectives of the CPT are: (1) develop parameterizations of calving processes that are suitable for continental-scale ice-sheet models that simulate the evolution of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets; (2) compile the data sets of the glaciological and oceanographic observations that are necessary to test, validate and constrain the developed parameterizations and models; (3) develop a physically based iceberg component for inclusion in the large-scale ocean circulation model. Several calving parameterizations based suitable for various glaciological settings have been developed and implemented in a continental-scale ice sheet model. Simulations of the present-day Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets show that the ice-sheet geometric configurations (thickness and extent) are sensitive to the calving process. In order to guide the development as well as to test calving parameterizations, available observations (of various kinds) have been compiled and organized into a database. Monthly estimates of iceberg distribution around the coast of Greenland have been produced with a goal of constructing iceberg size distribution and probability functions for iceberg occurrence in particular regions. A physically based iceberg model component was used in a GFDL global climate model. The simulation results show that the Antarctic iceberg calving-size distribution affects iceberg trajectories, determines where iceberg meltwater enters the ocean and the increased ice-berg freshwater transport leads to increased sea-ice growth around much of the East Antarctic coastline.

Factors controlling the Indian summer monsoon onset in a coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prodhomme, Chloé; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sébastien; Izumo, Takeshi

2013-04-01

The observed Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) onset occurs around 30 May and 2 June, with a standard deviation of 8 to 9 days, according to the estimates. The relationship between interannual variability of the ISM onset and SSTs (Sea Surface Temperature) remains controversial. The role of Indian Ocean SSTs remain unclear, some studies have shown a driving role while other suggests a passive relation between Indian Ocean SSTs and ISM. The intrinsic impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) is also difficult to estimate from observations alone. Finally, the predictability of the ISM onset remains drastically limited by the inability of both forced and coupled model to reproduce a realistic onset date. In order to measure objectively the ISM onset, different methods have been developed based on rainfall or dynamical indices (Ananthakrishnan and Soman, 1988 ; Wang and Ho 2002 ; Joseph et al. 2006). In the study we use the Tropospheric Temperature Gradient (TTG), which is the difference between the tropospheric temperature in a northern and a southern box in the Indian areas (Xavier et al. 2007). This index measures the dynamical strength of the monsoon and provides a stable and precise onset date consistent with rainfall estimates. In the SINTEX-F2 coupled model, the ISM onset measured with the TTG is delayed of approximately 10 days and is in advance of 6 days in the atmosphere-only (ECHAM) model. The 16 days lag between atmospheric-only and coupled runs suggests a crucial role of the coupling, especially SST biases on the delayed onset. With the help of several sensitivity experiments, this study tries to identify the keys regions influencing the ISM onset. Many studies have shown a strong impact of the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean SST on the ISM onset. Nevertheless, the correction of the SSTs, based on AVHRR, in the tropical Indian Ocean only slightly corrects the delayed onset in the coupled model, which suggests an impact of SST in others regions on the ISM onset. During May and June, the main tropical SST biases in the coupled model are a strong warm bias in the Atlantic Ocean and a warm bias in the tropical Pacific Ocean, except along the equator around 140°W-100°W, where there is a cold tongue bias. The correction of the warm bias in the Atlantic Ocean slightly improves the onset date. Conversely, the correction of SST biases in the tropical and equatorial Pacific Oceans advances the onset date of 12 and 10 days, respectively, compared to the control coupled run. This result suggests that, at least in this model, the ISM onset is mainly control by the Pacific Ocean SSTs. Even if ENSO has an impact on the onset date it does not explain the delay, which is related to the biased SST mean state in the Pacific Ocean.

What Fraction of Global Fire Activity Can Be Forecast Using Sea Surface Temperatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Morton, D. C.; Andela, N.; Giglio, L.

2015-12-01

Variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) can influence climate dynamics in local and remote land areas, and thus influence fire-climate interactions that govern burned area. SST information has been recently used in statistical models to create seasonal outlooks of fire season severity in South America and as the initial condition for dynamical model predictions of fire activity in Indonesia. However, the degree to which large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions can influence burned area in other continental regions has not been systematically explored. Here we quantified the amount of global burned area that can be predicted using SSTs in 14 different oceans regions as statistical predictors. We first examined lagged correlations between GFED4s burned area and the 14 ocean climate indices (OCIs) individually. The maximum correlations from different OCIs were used to construct a global map of fire predictability. About half of the global burned area can be forecast by this approach 3 months before the peak burning month (with a Pearson's r of 0.5 or higher), with the highest levels of predictability in Central America and Equatorial Asia. Several hotspots of predictability were identified using k-means cluster analysis. Within these regions, we tested the improvements of the forecast by using two OCIs from different oceans. Our forecast models were based on near-real-time SST data and may therefore support the development of new seasonal outlooks for fire activity that can aid the sustainable management of these fire-prone ecosystems.

Surface wind mixing in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robertson, Robin; Hartlipp, Paul

2017-12-01

Mixing at the ocean surface is key for atmosphere-ocean interactions and the distribution of heat, energy, and gases in the upper ocean. Winds are the primary force for surface mixing. To properly simulate upper ocean dynamics and the flux of these quantities within the upper ocean, models must reproduce mixing in the upper ocean. To evaluate the performance of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) in replicating the surface mixing, the results of four different vertical mixing parameterizations were compared against observations, using the surface mixed layer depth, the temperature fields, and observed diffusivities for comparisons. The vertical mixing parameterizations investigated were Mellor- Yamada 2.5 level turbulent closure (MY), Large- McWilliams- Doney Kpp (LMD), Nakanishi- Niino (NN), and the generic length scale (GLS) schemes. This was done for one temperate site in deep water in the Eastern Pacific and three shallow water sites in the Baltic Sea. The model reproduced the surface mixed layer depth reasonably well for all sites; however, the temperature fields were reproduced well for the deep site, but not for the shallow Baltic Sea sites. In the Baltic Sea, the models overmixed the water column after a few days. Vertical temperature diffusivities were higher than those observed and did not show the temporal fluctuations present in the observations. The best performance was by NN and MY; however, MY became unstable in two of the shallow simulations with high winds. The performance of GLS nearly as good as NN and MY. LMD had the poorest performance as it generated temperature diffusivities that were too high and induced too much mixing. Further observational comparisons are needed to evaluate the effects of different stratification and wind conditions and the limitations on the vertical mixing parameterizations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wohl, Ellen; Hall, Robert O.; Lininger, Katherine B.

Research in stream metabolism, gas exchange, and sediment dynamics indicates that rivers are an active component of the global carbon cycle and that river form and process can influence partitioning of terrestrially derived carbon among the atmosphere, geosphere, and ocean. Here we develop a conceptual model of carbon dynamics (inputs, outputs, and storage of organic carbon) within a river corridor, which includes the active channel and the riparian zone. The exchange of carbon from the channel to the riparian zone represents potential for storage of transported carbon not included in the “active pipe” model of organic carbon (OC) dynamics inmore » freshwater systems. The active pipe model recognizes that river processes influence carbon dynamics, but focuses on CO2 emissions from the channel and eventual delivery to the ocean. We also review how human activities directly and indirectly alter carbon dynamics within river corridors. We propose that dams create the most significant alteration of carbon dynamics within a channel, but that alteration of riparian zones, including the reduction of lateral connectivity between the channel and riparian zone, constitutes the most substantial change of carbon dynamics in river corridors. We argue that the morphology and processes of a river corridor regulate the ability to store, transform, and transport OC, and that people are pervasive modifiers of river morphology and processes. The net effect of most human activities, with the notable exception of reservoir construction, appears to be that of reducing the ability of river corridors to store OC within biota and sediment, which effectively converts river corridors to OC sources rather than OC sinks. We conclude by summarizing knowledge gaps in OC dynamics and the implications of our findings for managing OC dynamics within river corridors.« less

GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delworth, T.L.; Broccoli, A.J.; Rosati, A.; Stouffer, R.J.; Balaji, V.; Beesley, J.A.; Cooke, W.F.; Dixon, K.W.; Dunne, J.; Dunne, K.A.; Durachta, J.W.; Findell, K.L.; Ginoux, P.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Gordon, C.T.; Griffies, S.M.; Gudgel, R.; Harrison, M.J.; Held, I.M.; Hemler, R.S.; Horowitz, L.W.; Klein, S.A.; Knutson, T.R.; Kushner, P.J.; Langenhorst, A.R.; Lee, H.-C.; Lin, S.-J.; Lu, J.; Malyshev, S.L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Ramaswamy, V.; Russell, J.; Schwarzkopf, M.D.; Shevliakova, E.; Sirutis, J.J.; Spelman, M.J.; Stern, W.F.; Winton, M.; Wittenberg, A.T.; Wyman, B.; Zeng, F.; Zhang, R.

2006-01-01

The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved. Tw o versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2?? latitude ?? 2.5?? longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1?? in latitude and longitude, with meridional resolution equatorward of 30?? becoming progressively finer, such that the meridional resolution is 1/3?? at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean, with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments. The co ntrol simulations have stable, realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and the land model, both of which act to increase the net surface shortwave radiation in CM2.1, thereby reducing an overall cold bias present in CM2.0; and 3) a reduction of ocean lateral viscosity in the extratropics in CM2.1, which reduces sea ice biases in the North Atlantic. Both models have be en used to conduct a suite of climate change simulations for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report and are able to simulate the main features of the observed warming of the twentieth century. The climate sensitivities of the CM2.0 and CM2.1 models are 2.9 and 3.4 K, respectively. These sensitivities are defined by coupling the atmospheric components of CM2.0 and CM2.1 to a slab ocean model and allowing the model to come into equilibrium with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The output from a suite of integrations conducted with these models is freely available online (see http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/). ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics and Predictability of MJO’s

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

developed. b. Modeling study of the mechanisms of surface chlorophyll modulation by the MJO Previous studies analyzed ocean color satellite data and...to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data ...with Gupta, SIO) e. Run SCOAR2 in downscaling mode for the 2nd MJO event during the DYNAMO period (led by Seo, WHOI, with Miller, SIO) f. Run and

Dynamical Evaluation of Ocean Models Using the Gulf Stream as an Example

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-10

Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) wind stress climatology and the northward upper ocean flow (14 Sv) of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ...30 35 55N 65N Fig. 21.14 Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) streamfunction from the same four simulations as Fig. 21.11. An AMOC...typically develops a northern or southern bias. A shallow bias in the southward abyssal flow of the Atlan- tic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC

Buffering of Ocean Export Production by Flexible Elemental Stoichiometry of Particulate Organic Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Tatsuro; Matsumoto, Katsumi

2017-10-01

One of the most important factors that determine the ocean-atmosphere carbon partitioning is the sinking of particulate organic matter (POM) from the surface ocean to the deep ocean. The amount of carbon (C) removed from the surface ocean by this POM export production depends critically on the elemental ratio in POM of C to nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), two essential elements that limit productivity. Recent observations indicate that P:N:C in marine POM varies both spatially and temporally due to chemical, physical, and ecological dynamics. In a new approach to predicting a flexible P:C ratio, we developed a power law model with a stoichiometry sensitivity factor, which is able to relate P:C of POM to ambient phosphate concentration. The new factor is robust, measurable, and biogeochemically meaningful. Using the new stoichiometry sensitivity factor, we present a first-order estimate that P:C plasticity could buffer against a generally expected future reduction in global carbon export production by up to 5% under a future warming scenario compared to a fixed, Redfield P:C. Further, we demonstrate that our new stoichiometry model can be implemented successfully and easily in a global model to reproduce the large-scale P:N:C variability in the ocean.

Ocean Processes Revealing by Seasonal Dynamics of Surface Chlorophyll Concentration (by Satellite Data)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shevyrnogov, Anatoly; Vysotskaya, Galina

Continuous monitoring of phytopigment concentrations in the ocean by space-borne methods makes possible to estimate ecological condition of biocenoses in critical areas. Unlike land vege-tation, hydrological processes largely determine phytoplankton dynamics, which may be either recurrent or random. The types of chlorophyll concentration dynamics can manifest as zones quasistationary by seasonal chlorophyll dynamics, perennial variations of phytopigment con-centrations, anomalous variations, etc., that makes possible revealing of hydrological structure of the ocean. While large-scale and frequently occurring phenomena have been much studied, the seldom-occurring changes of small size may be of interest for analysis of long-term processes and rare natural variations. Along with this, the ability to reflect consequences of anthropoge-nous impact or natural ecological disasters on the ocean biota makes the anomalous variations ecologically essential. Civilization aspiring for steady development and preservation of the bio-sphere, must have the knowledge of spatial distribution, seasonal dynamics and anomalies of the primary production process on the planet. In the papers of the authors (Shevyrnogov A.P., Vysotskaya G.S., Gitelzon J.I. Quasistationary areas of chlorophyll concentration in the world ocean as observed satellite data. Adv. Space Res. Vol. 18, No. 7, pp. 129-132, 1996) existence of zones, which are quasi-stationary with similar seasonal dynamics of chlorophyll concentration at surface layer of ocean, was shown. Results were obtained on the base of pro-cessing of time series of satellite images SeaWiFS. It was shown that fronts and frontal zones coincide with dividing lines between quasi-stationary areas, especially in areas of large oceanic streams. Biota of surface oceanic layer is more stable in comparison with quickly changing sur-face temperature. It gives a possibility to circumvent influence of high-frequency component (for example, a diurnal cycle) in investigation of dynamics of spatial distribution of surface streams. In addition, an analyses of nonstable ocean productivity phenomena, stood out time series of satellite images, showed existence of areas with different types of instability in the all Global ocean. They are observed as adjacent nonstationary zones of different size, which are associated by different ways with known oceanic phenomena. It is evident that dynamics of a spatial distribution of biological productivity can give an additional knowledge of complicated picture of surface oceanic layer hydrology.

Ocean dynamics during the passage of Xynthia storm recorded by GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolas, Joëlle; Ferenc, Marcell; Li, Zhao; van Dam, Tonie; Polidori, Laurent

2014-05-01

When computing the effect of atmospheric loading on geodetic coordinates, we must assign the response of the ocean to pressure loading. A pure inverted barometer and a solid Earth ocean response to pressure loading define the extremes of the response. At periods longer than a few days, the inverted barometer response is sufficient (Wunsch and Stammer, 1997). However, how does the ocean respond to fast moving storms? In this study we investigate the effect of a violent storm that progressed over Western Europe between the 27th of February and the 1st of March 2010 on sub-daily vertical GPS (Global Positioning System) position time series of the French GNSS permanent network (RGP). Xynthia was a huge low-pressure system (pressure drop of 40 mbar and a storm surge of 1.4 m (at La Rochelle tide gauge)) that crossed France from the southwest to the northeast over the course of about 20 hours. We study the different behaviour of the coastal and inland sites based on the comparison of the estimated 6-hourly stand-alone GPS position time series (GINS-PC software) with the local pressure and the predicted atmospheric pressure loading time series derived from the high resolution Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA MERRA) and also the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global dataset. We model the predicted displacements using the inverse barometer (IB) and the non-IB ocean response cases as endpoints. Predicted loading effects due to the atmospheric pressure and IB ocean reach up to 1.0, 1.3 and 13.7 mm for the east, north and up components, respectively. Then we attempt to use the GPS vertical surface displacements, the surface pressure, and tide gauge data (SONEL) to identify the true ocean dynamics on the continental shelf during the passage of this fast moving system. Keywords: GPS, GINS-PC, Xynthia, ocean dynamics, atmospheric pressure loading, deformation

The African Plate: A history of oceanic crust accretion and subduction since the Jurassic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaina, C.; Torsvik, T. H.; Labails, C.; van Hinsbergen, D.; Werner, S.; Medvedev, S.

2012-04-01

Initially part of Gondwana and Pangea, and now surrounded almost entirely by spreading centres, the African plate moved relatively slowly for the last 200 million years. Yet both Africa's cratons and passive margins were affected by tectonic stresses developed at distant plate boundaries. Moreover, the African plate was partly underlain by hot mantle (at least for the last 300 Ma) - either a series of hotspots or a superswell, or both - that contributed to episodic volcanism, basin-swell topography, and consequent sediment deposition, erosion, and structural deformation. A systematic study of the African plate boundaries since the opening of surrounding oceanic basins is presently lacking. This is mainly because geophysical data are sparse and there are still controversies regarding the ages of oceanic crust. The publication of individual geophysical datasets and more recently, global Digital Map of Magnetic Anomalies (WDMAM, EMAG2) prompted us to systematically reconstruct the ages and extent of oceanic crust around Africa for the last 200 Ma. Location of Continent Ocean Boundary/Continent Ocean Transition and older oceanic crust (Jurassic and Cretaceous) are updates in the light of gravity, magnetic and seismic data and models of passive margin formation. Reconstructed NeoTethys oceanic crust is based on a new model of microcontinent and intr-oceanic subduction zone evolution in this area.The new set of oceanic palaeo-age grid models constitutes the basis for estimating the dynamics of oceanic crust through time and will be used as input for quantifying the paleo-ridge push and slab pull that contributed to the African plate palaeo-stresses and had the potential to influence the formation of sedimentary basins.

Physical oceanography and tracer chemistry of the southern ocean

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

This report considers technical and scientific developments and research questions in studies of the Southern Ocean since its predecessor, /open quotes/Southern Ocean Dynamics--A Strategy for Scientific Exploration 1973-1983/close quotes/ was published. The summary lists key research questions in Southern Ocean oceanography. Chapter 1 describes how Southern Ocean research has evolved to provide the basis for timely research toward more directed objectives. Chapter 2 recommends four research programs, encompassing many of the specific recommendations that follow. Appendix A provides the scientific background and Reference/Bibliography list for this report for: on air-sea-ice interaction; the Antarctic Circumpolar Current; water mass conversion; chemical tracermore » oceanography; and numerical modeling of the Southern Ocean. Appendix B describes the satellite-based observation systems expected to be active during the next decade. Appendix C is a list of relevant reports published during 1981-1987. 146 refs.« less

Dynamical Instability Produces Transform Faults at Mid-Ocean Ridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerya, Taras

2010-08-01

Transform faults at mid-ocean ridges—one of the most striking, yet enigmatic features of terrestrial plate tectonics—are considered to be the inherited product of preexisting fault structures. Ridge offsets along these faults therefore should remain constant with time. Here, numerical models suggest that transform faults are actively developing and result from dynamical instability of constructive plate boundaries, irrespective of previous structure. Boundary instability from asymmetric plate growth can spontaneously start in alternate directions along successive ridge sections; the resultant curved ridges become transform faults within a few million years. Fracture-related rheological weakening stabilizes ridge-parallel detachment faults. Offsets along the transform faults change continuously with time by asymmetric plate growth and discontinuously by ridge jumps.

The 14th international workshop on wave hindcasting and forecasting and the 5th coastal hazards symposium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Alves, Jose Henrique; Greenslade, Diana; Horsburgh, Kevin; Swail, Val

2017-04-01

Following the 14th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and 5th Coastal Hazards Symposium in November 2014 in Key West, Florida, a topical collection has appeared in recent issues of Ocean Dynamics. Here, we give a brief overview of the 16 papers published in this topical collection as well as an overview of the widening scope of the conference in recent years. A general trend in the field has been towards closer integration between the wave and ocean modelling communities. This is also seen in this topical collection, with several papers exploring the interaction between surface waves and mixed layer dynamics and sea ice.

Modeling the effects of free-living marine bacterial community composition on heterotrophic remineralization rates and biogeochemical carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teel, E.; Liu, X.; Cram, J. A.; Sachdeva, R.; Fuhrman, J. A.; Levine, N. M.

2016-12-01

Global oceanic ecosystem models either disregard fluctuations in heterotrophic bacterial remineralization or vary remineralization as a simple function of temperature, available carbon, and nutrient limitation. Most of these models were developed before molecular techniques allowed for the description of microbial community composition and functional diversity. Here we investigate the impact of a dynamic heterotrophic community and variable remineralization rates on biogeochemical cycling. Specifically, we integrated variable microbial remineralization into an ecosystem model by utilizing molecular community composition data, association network analysis, and biogeochemical rate data from the San Pedro Ocean Time-series (SPOT) station. Fluctuations in free-living bacterial community function and composition were examined using monthly environmental and biological data collected at SPOT between 2000 and 2011. On average, the bacterial community showed predictable seasonal changes in community composition and peaked in abundance in the spring with a one-month lag from peak chlorophyll concentrations. Bacterial growth efficiency (BGE), estimated from bacterial production, was found to vary widely at the site (5% to 40%). In a multivariate analysis, 47.6% of BGE variability was predicted using primary production, bacterial community composition, and temperature. A classic Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus model was expanded to include a heterotroph module that captured the observed relationships at the SPOT site. Results show that the inclusion of dynamic bacterial remineralization into larger oceanic ecosystem models can significantly impact microzooplankton grazing, the duration of surface phytoplankton blooms, and picophytoplankton primary production rates.

Response of Antarctic sea surface temperature and sea ice to ozone depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, D.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Kostov, Y.; Marshall, J.; Seviour, W.; Waugh, D.

2017-12-01

The influence of the Antarctic ozone hole extends all the way from the stratosphere through the troposphere down to the surface, with clear signatures on surface winds, and SST during summer. In this talk we discuss the impact of these changes on the ocean circulation and sea ice state. We are notably motivated by the observed cooling of the surface Southern Ocean and associated increase in Antarctic sea ice extent since the 1970s. These trends are not reproduced by CMIP5 climate models, and the underlying mechanism at work in nature and the models remain unexplained. Did the ozone hole contribute to the observed trends?Here, we review recent advances toward answering these issues using "abrupt ozone depletion" experiments. The ocean and sea ice response is rather complex, comprising two timescales: a fast ( 1-2y) cooling of the surface ocean and sea ice cover increase, followed by a slower warming trend, which, depending on models, flip the sign of the SST and sea ice responses on decadal timescale. Although the basic mechanism seems robust, comparison across climate models reveal large uncertainties in the timescales and amplitude of the response to the extent that even the sign of the ocean and sea ice response to ozone hole and recovery remains unconstrained. After briefly describing the dynamics and thermodynamics behind the two-timescale response, we will discuss the main sources of uncertainties in the modeled response, namely cloud effects and air-sea heat exchanges, surface wind stress response and ocean eddy transports. Finally, we will consider the implications of our results on the ability of coupled climate models to reproduce observed Southern Ocean changes.

Dynamic topography in subduction zones: insights from laboratory models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajolet, Flora; Faccenna, Claudio; Funiciello, Francesca

2014-05-01

The topography in subduction zones can exhibit very complex patterns due to the variety of forces operating this setting. If we can deduce the theoretical isostatic value from density structure of the lithosphere, the effect of flexural bending and the dynamic component of topography are difficult to quantify. In this work, we attempt to measure and analyze the topography of the overriding plate during subduction compared to a pure shortening setting. We use analog models where the lithospheres are modeled by thin-sheet layers of silicone putty lying on low-viscosity syrup (asthenosphere). The model is shorten by a piston pushing an oceanic plate while a continental plate including a weak zone to localize the deformation is fixed. In one type of experiments, the oceanic plate bends and subducts underneath the continental one; in a second type the two plates are in contact without any trench, and thus simply shorten. The topography evolution is monitored with a laser-scanner. In the shortening model, the elevation increases progressively, especially in the weak zone, and is consistent with expected isostatic values. In the subduction model, the topography is characterized, from the piston to the back-wall, by a low elevation of the dense oceanic plate, a flexural bulge, the trench forming a deep depression, the highly elevated weak zone, and the continental upper plate of intermediate elevation. The topography of the upper plate is consistent with isostatic values for very early stages, but exhibits lower elevations than expected for later stages. For a same amount of shortening of the continental plate, the thickening is the same and the plate should have the same elevation in both types of models. However, comparing the topography at 20, 29 and 39% of shortening, we found that the weak zone is 0.4 to 0.6 mm lower when there is an active subduction. Theses values correspond to 2.6 to 4 km in nature. Although theses values are high, there are of the same order as dynamic topography and could represent the dynamic effect of the slab sinking into the asthenosphere and lowering the elevation of the upper plate.

Ocean Heat Uptake Slows 21st Century Surface Warming Driven by Extratropical Cloud Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, W.; Maroon, E.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

2017-12-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2, has long been used to compare climate models. In many models, ECS is well correlated with warming produced by transient forcing experiments. Modifications to cloud phase at high latitudes in a state-of-the-art climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), produce a large increase in ECS (1.5 K) via extratropical cloud feedbacks. However, only a small surface warming increase occurs in a realistic 21st century simulation including a full-depth dynamic ocean and the "business as usual" RCP8.5 emissions scenario. In fact, the increase in surface warming is only barely above the internal variability-generated range in the CESM Large Ensemble. The small change in 21st century warming is attributed to subpolar ocean heat uptake in both hemispheres. In the Southern Ocean, the mean-state circulation takes up heat while in the North Atlantic a slowdown in circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. These results show the importance of subpolar ocean heat uptake in controlling the pace of warming and demonstrate that ECS cannot be used to reliably infer transient warming when it is driven by extratropical feedbacks.

Modelling Southern Ocean ecosystems: krill, the food-web, and the impacts of harvesting.

PubMed

Hill, S L; Murphy, E J; Reid, K; Trathan, P N; Constable, A J

2006-11-01

The ecosystem approach to fisheries recognises the interdependence between harvested species and other ecosystem components. It aims to account for the propagation of the effects of harvesting through the food-web. The formulation and evaluation of ecosystem-based management strategies requires reliable models of ecosystem dynamics to predict these effects. The krill-based system in the Southern Ocean was the focus of some of the earliest models exploring such effects. It is also a suitable example for the development of models to support the ecosystem approach to fisheries because it has a relatively simple food-web structure and progress has been made in developing models of the key species and interactions, some of which has been motivated by the need to develop ecosystem-based management. Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, is the main target species for the fishery and the main prey of many top predators. It is therefore critical to capture the processes affecting the dynamics and distribution of krill in ecosystem dynamics models. These processes include environmental influences on recruitment and the spatially variable influence of advection. Models must also capture the interactions between krill and its consumers, which are mediated by the spatial structure of the environment. Various models have explored predator-prey population dynamics with simplistic representations of these interactions, while others have focused on specific details of the interactions. There is now a pressing need to develop plausible and practical models of ecosystem dynamics that link processes occurring at these different scales. Many studies have highlighted uncertainties in our understanding of the system, which indicates future priorities in terms of both data collection and developing methods to evaluate the effects of these uncertainties on model predictions. We propose a modelling approach that focuses on harvested species and their monitored consumers and that evaluates model uncertainty by using alternative structures and functional forms in a Monte Carlo framework.

Unforced decadal fluctuations in a coupled model of the atmosphere and ocean mixed layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnett, T. P.; Del Genio, A. D.; Ruedy, R. A.

1992-01-01

Global average temperature in a 100-year control run of a model used for greenhouse gas response simulations showed low-frequency natural variability comparable in magnitude to that observed over the last 100 years. The model variability was found to be barotropic in the atmosphere, and located in the tropical strip with largest values near the equator in the Pacific. The model variations were traced to complex, low-frequency interactions between the meridional sea surface temperature gradients in the eastern equatorial Pacific, clouds at both high and low levels, and features of the tropical atmospheric circulation. The variations in these and other model parameters appear to oscillate between two limiting climate states. The physical scenario accounting for the oscillations on decadal time scales is almost certainly not found in the real world on shorter time scales due to limited resolution and the omission of key physics (e.g., equatorial ocean dynamics) in the model. The real message is that models with dynamical limitations can still produce significant long-term variability. Only a thorough physical diagnosis of such simulations and comparisons with decadal-length data sets will allow one to decide if faith in the model results is, or is not, warranted.

Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adélie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise.

PubMed

Che-Castaldo, Christian; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Youngflesh, Casey; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Humphries, Grant; McDowall, Philip; Landrum, Laura; Holland, Marika M; Li, Yun; Ji, Rubao; Lynch, Heather J

2017-10-10

Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of the oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in the hopes that changes in abundance and productivity may be useful for adaptive management of marine resources, but their suitability for this purpose is often unknown. To address this, we fit a Bayesian population dynamics model that includes process and observation error to all known Adélie penguin abundance data (1982-2015) in the Antarctic, covering >95% of their population globally. We find that process error exceeds observation error in this system, and that continent-wide "year effects" strongly influence population growth rates. Our findings have important implications for the use of Adélie penguins in Southern Ocean feedback management, and suggest that aggregating abundance across space provides the fastest reliable signal of true population change for species whose dynamics are driven by stochastic processes.Adélie penguins are a key Antarctic indicator species, but data patchiness has challenged efforts to link population dynamics to key drivers. Che-Castaldo et al. resolve this issue using a pan-Antarctic Bayesian model to infer missing data, and show that spatial aggregation leads to more robust inference regarding dynamics.

Seasonal dynamics of surface chlorophyll concentration and sea surface temperature, as indicator of hydrological structure of the ocean (by satellite data)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shevyrnogov, Anatoly; Vysotskaya, Galina

Continuous monitoring of phytopigment concentrations and sea surface temperature in the ocean by space-borne methods makes possible to estimate ecological condition of biocenoses in critical areas. Unlike land vegetation, hydrological processes largely determine phytoplank-ton dynamics, which may be either recurrent or random. The types of chlorophyll concentration dynamics and sea surface temperature can manifest as zones quasistationary by seasonal dynamics, quasistationary areas (QSA). In the papers of the authors (A. Shevyrnogov, G. Vysotskaya, E. Shevyrnogov, A study of the stationary and the anomalous in the ocean surface chlorophyll distribution by satellite data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 25, No.7-8, pp. 1383-1387, April 2004 & A. P. Shevyrnogov, G. S. Vysotskaya, J. I. Gitelson, Quasistationary areas of chlorophyll concentra-tion in the world ocean as observed satellite data Advances in Space Research, Volume 18, Issue 7, Pages 129-132, 1996) existence of zones, which are quasi-stationary with similar seasonal dynamics of chlorophyll concentration at surface layer of ocean, was shown. Results were obtained on the base of processing of time series of satellite images SeaWiFS. It was shown that fronts and frontal zones coincide with dividing lines between quasi-stationary are-as, especially in areas of large oceanic streams. To study the dynamics of the ocean for the period from 1985 through 2012 we used data on the temperature of the surface layer of the ocean and chlorophyll concentration (AVHRR, SeaWiFS and MODIS). Biota of surface oceanic layer is more stable in comparison with quickly changing surface tem-perature. It gives a possibility to circumvent influence of high-frequency component (for exam-ple, a diurnal cycle) in investigation of dynamics of spatial distribution of surface streams. In addition, an analyses of nonstable ocean productivity phenomena, stood out time series of satellite images, showed existence of areas with different types of instability in the all Global ocean. They are observed as adjacent nonstationary zones of different size, which are associ-ated by different ways with known oceanic phenomena. It is evident that dynamics of a spatial distribution of biological productivity can give an additional knowledge of complicated picture of surface oceanic layer hydrology. In this study we demonstrate different origin of appearance of quasistationary zones in the ocean. We can see that the border between quasi¬stationary zones is an indicator of the front between the Labrador Current and Gulfstream, other example of revealed pheno¬menon is a qua-sistationary area around of the British Isles that correlates with the relief of the oceanic bottom. Considering that the QSA maps are calculated almost for all surface of the Global ocean, not all QSA can be explained especially of small size. Although some small QSA are interesting. Also local QSA near estuaries of large rivers and large industrial centers, that can be result of a human impact. In sum satellite data is a powerful instrument for investigation of dynamic oceanic processes, their stability and unstability. The result of such study can be used for monitoring of long-term changes and their correlation of with climate dynamics.

The Errors Sources Affect to the Results of One-Way Nested Ocean Regional Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, S. V.

2016-02-01

Pham-Van Sy1, Jin Hwan Hwang2 and Hyeyun Ku3 Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, KoreaEmail: 1phamsymt@gmail.com (Corresponding author) Email: 2jinhwang@snu.ac.krEmail: 3hyeyun.ku@gmail.comAbstractThe Oceanic Regional Circulation Model (ORCM) is an essential tool in resolving highly a regional scale through downscaling dynamically the results from the roughly revolved global model. However, when dynamic downscaling from a coarse resolution of the global model or observations to the small scale, errors are generated due to the different sizes of resolution and lateral updating frequency. This research evaluated the effect of four main sources on the results of the ocean regional circulation model (ORCMs) during downscaling and nesting the output data from the ocean global circulation model (OGCMs). Representative four error sources should be the way of the LBC formulation, the spatial resolution difference between driving and driven data, the frequency for up-dating LBCs and domain size. Errors which are contributed from each error source to the results of the ORCMs are investigated separately by applying the Big-Brother Experiment (BBE). Within resolution of 3km grid point of the ORCMs imposing in the BBE framework, it clearly exposes that the simulation results of the ORCMs significantly depend on the domain size and specially the spatial and temporal resolution of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs). The ratio resolution of spatial resolution between driving data and driven model could be up to 3, the updating frequency of the LBCs can be up to every 6 hours per day. The optimal domain size of the ORCMs could be smaller than the OGCMs' domain size around 2 to 10 times. Key words: ORCMs, error source, lateral boundary conditions, domain size Acknowledgement: This research was supported by grants from the Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries entitled as "Developing total management system for the Keum river estuary and coast" and "Development of Technology for CO2 Marine Geological Storage". We also thank to the administrative supports of the Integrated Research Institute of Construction and Environmental Engineering of the Seoul National University.

Overflow Simulations using MPAS-Ocean in Idealized and Realistic Domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reckinger, S.; Petersen, M. R.; Reckinger, S. J.

2016-02-01

MPAS-Ocean is used to simulate an idealized, density-driven overflow using the dynamics of overflow mixing and entrainment (DOME) setup. Numerical simulations are benchmarked against other models, including the MITgcm's z-coordinate model and HIM's isopycnal coordinate model. A full parameter study is presented that looks at how sensitive overflow simulations are to vertical grid type, resolution, and viscosity. Horizontal resolutions with 50 km grid cells are under-resolved and produce poor results, regardless of other parameter settings. Vertical grids ranging in thickness from 15 m to 120 m were tested. A horizontal resolution of 10 km and a vertical resolution of 60 m are sufficient to resolve the mesoscale dynamics of the DOME configuration, which mimics real-world overflow parameters. Mixing and final buoyancy are least sensitive to horizontal viscosity, but strongly sensitive to vertical viscosity. This suggests that vertical viscosity could be adjusted in overflow water formation regions to influence mixing and product water characteristics. Also, the study shows that sigma coordinates produce much less mixing than z-type coordinates, resulting in heavier plumes that go further down slope. Sigma coordinates are less sensitive to changes in resolution but as sensitive to vertical viscosity compared to z-coordinates. Additionally, preliminary measurements of overflow diagnostics on global simulations using a realistic oceanic domain are presented.

Tracing the Early Development of Harmful Algal Blooms on the West Florida Shelf with the Aid of Lagrangian Coherent Structures

PubMed Central

Olascoaga, M. J.; Beron-Vera, F. J.; Brand, L. E.; Koçak, H.

2008-01-01

Several theories have been proposed to explain the development of harmful algal blooms (HABs) produced by the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis on the West Florida Shelf. However, because the early stages of HAB development are usually not detected, these theories have been so far very difficult to verify. In this paper we employ simulated Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs) to trace potential early locations of the development of a HAB in late 2004 before it was transported to a region where it could be detected by satellite imagery. The LCSs, which are extracted from surface ocean currents produced by a data-assimilative HYCOM (HYbrid-Coordinate Ocean Model) simulation, constitute material fluid barriers that demarcate potential pathways for HAB evolution. Using a simplified population dynamics model we infer the factors that could possibly lead to the development of the HAB in question. The population dynamics model determines nitrogen in two components, nutrients and phytoplankton, which are assumed to be passively advected by surface ocean currents produced by the above HYCOM simulation. Two nutrient sources are inferred for the HAB whose evolution is found to be strongly tied to the simulated LCSs. These nutrient sources are found to be located nearshore and possibly due to land runoff. PMID:19137076

Influence of 1997/98 and 2006/2007 Indian Ocean Dipole on Phytoplankton Composition in the Eastern Tropical Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahapatra, K.; Okada, Y.

2016-02-01

The influence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events of varied intensity co-occurred with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1997/98 and 2006/2007 on phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) was assessed in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean using the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) and particle size distribution (PSD) parameters retrieved from satellite derived ocean color data. Response of the PFTs to the IOD events of 1997/98 and 2006/2007 was varied in term of magnitude and duration. Nitrate, chlorophyll and 2 PFTs (diatoms and chlorophytes) out of 4 PFTs (Diatoms, Chlorophytes, Coccolithophores and Cyanobacteria) were strongly correlated with the Dipole Mode Indices. The NOBM provided insight to the course of events leading to perturbations and evolution of biogeochemical processes associated with the IOD in a multi-phytoplankton context, against the backdrop of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability, and the interaction among different PFTs. Different phases of the IOD cycle were well captured in the evolution of phytoplankton dynamics. Satellite-based retrievals of PSD parameters further characterized the specific biogeochemical setup that facilitated the PFTs to thrive and cross-dominate each other. We examined the potential impact of the IOD/ENSO events on the PFT-specific primary production. Significant correlation was noticed between DMI and PFT-specific primary production of diatoms and chlorophytes. We highlighted the need (1) to develop regional biogeochemical models to overcome the gaps in our understanding and elucidate the precise mechanism that drive the biogeochemical fluctuations in the region (2) to pursue further research on phenological aspects of PFTs to understand potential impact of climatological change on phytoplankton community and on annually recurring cycle of pelagic trophodynamics and ecosystem functions.

A coupled dynamic-thermodynamic model of an ice-ocean system in the marginal ice zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa

1987-01-01

Thermodynamics are incorporated into a coupled ice-ocean model in order to investigate wind-driven ice-ocean processes in the marginal zone. Upswelling at the ice edge which is generated by the difference in the ice-air and air-water surface stresses is found to give rise to a strong entrainment by drawing the pycnocline closer to the surface. Entrainment is shown to be negligible outside the areas affected by the ice edge upswelling. If cooling at the top is included in the model, the heat and salt exchanges are further enhanced in the upswelling areas. It is noted that new ice formation occurs in the region not affected by ice edge upswelling, and it is suggested that the high-salinity mixed layer regions (with a scale of a few Rossby radii of deformation) will overturn due to cooling, possibly contributing to the formation of deep water.

Predictive Habitat Use of California Sea Lions and Its Implications for Fisheries Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briscoe, D.

2016-02-01

Advancements in satellite telemetry and remotely-sensed oceanography have shown that species and the environment they utilize are highly dynamic in space and time. However, biophysical features often overlap with human use. For this reason, spatially-explicit management approaches may only provide a snapshot of protection for a highly mobile species throughout its range. As a migratory species, California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) utilize dynamic oceanographic features that overlap with the California swordfish fishery, and are subject to incidental catch. The development of near-real time tools can assist in management efforts to mitigate against human impacts, such as fisheries interactions and dynamic marine species. Here, we combine near-real time remotely-sensed satellite oceanography, animal tracking data, and Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) to: a) determine suitable habitat for 75 female California sea lions throughout their range, b) forecast when and where these non-target interactions are likely to occur, and c) validate these models with observed data of such interactions. Model results can be used to provide resource management that are highly responsive to the movement of managed species, ocean users, and underlying ocean features.

Predictive Habitat Use of California Sea Lions and Its Implications for Fisheries Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briscoe, D.

2016-12-01

Advancements in satellite telemetry and remotely-sensed oceanography have shown that species and the environment they utilize are highly dynamic in space and time. However, biophysical features often overlap with human use. For this reason, spatially-explicit management approaches may only provide a snapshot of protection for a highly mobile species throughout its range. As a migratory species, California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) utilize dynamic oceanographic features that overlap with the California swordfish fishery, and are subject to incidental catch. The development of near-real time tools can assist in management efforts to mitigate against human impacts, such as fisheries interactions and dynamic marine species. Here, we combine near-real time remotely-sensed satellite oceanography, animal tracking data, and Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) to: a) determine suitable habitat for 75 female California sea lions throughout their range, b) forecast when and where these non-target interactions are likely to occur, and c) validate these models with observed data of such interactions. Model results can be used to provide resource management that are highly responsive to the movement of managed species, ocean users, and underlying ocean features.

Anomalous Structure of Oceanic Lithosphere in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans: A Preliminary Analysis Based on Bathymetry, Gravity and Crustal Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barantsrva, O.

2014-12-01

We present a preliminary analysis of the crustal and upper mantle structure for off-shore regions in the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans. These regions have anomalous oceanic lithosphere: the upper mantle of the North Atlantic ocean is affected by the Iceland plume, while the Arctic ocean has some of the slowest spreading rates. Our specific goal is to constrain the density structure of the upper mantle in order to understand the links between the deep lithosphere dynamics, ocean spreading, ocean floor bathymetry, heat flow and structure of the oceanic lithosphere in the regions where classical models of evolution of the oceanic lithosphere may not be valid. The major focus is on the oceanic lithosphere, but the Arctic shelves with a sufficient data coverage are also included into the analysis. Out major interest is the density structure of the upper mantle, and the analysis is based on the interpretation of GOCE satellite gravity data. To separate gravity anomalies caused by subcrustal anomalous masses, the gravitational effect of water, crust and the deep mantle is removed from the observed gravity field. For bathymetry we use the global NOAA database ETOPO1. The crustal correction to gravity is based on two crustal models: (1) global model CRUST1.0 (Laske, 2013) and, for a comparison, (2) a regional seismic model EUNAseis (Artemieva and Thybo, 2013). The crustal density structure required for the crustal correction is constrained from Vp data. Previous studies have shown that a large range of density values corresponds to any Vp value. To overcome this problem and to reduce uncertainty associated with the velocity-density conversion, we account for regional tectonic variations in the Northern Atlantics as constrained by numerous published seismic profiles and potential-field models across the Norwegian off-shore crust (e.g. Breivik et al., 2005, 2007), and apply different Vp-density conversions for different parts of the region. We present preliminary results, which we use to examine factors that control variations in bathymetry, sedimentary and crustal thicknesses in these anomalous oceanic domains.

Dynamics of Internal Tides Over a Shallow Ridge Investigated With a High-Resolution Downscaling Regional Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masunaga, Eiji; Uchiyama, Yusuke; Suzue, Yota; Yamazaki, Hidekatsu

2018-04-01

This study investigates the dynamics of tidally induced internal waves over a shallow ridge, the Izu-Ogasawara Ridge off the Japanese mainland, using a downscaled high-resolution regional ocean numerical model. Both the Kuroshio and tides contribute to the field of currents in the study area. The model results show strong internal tidal energy fluxes over the ridge, exceeding 3.5 kW m-1, which are higher than the fluxes along the Japanese mainland. The flux in the upstream side of the Kuroshio is enhanced by an interaction of internal waves and currents. The tidal forcing induces 92% of the total internal wave energy flux, exhibiting the considerable dominance of tides in internal waves. The tidal forcing enhances the kinetic energy, particularly in the northern area of the ridge where the Kuroshio Current is not a direct influence. The tidal forcing contributes to roughly 30% of the total kinetic energy in the study area.

3D Visualization of Global Ocean Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, V. G.; Sharma, R.; Zhang, E.; Schmittner, A.; Jenny, B.

2015-12-01

Advanced 3D visualization techniques are seldom used to explore the dynamic behavior of ocean circulation. Streamlines are an effective method for visualization of flow, and they can be designed to clearly show the dynamic behavior of a fluidic system. We employ vector field editing and extraction software to examine the topology of velocity vector fields generated by a 3D global circulation model coupled to a one-layer atmosphere model simulating preindustrial and last glacial maximum (LGM) conditions. This results in a streamline-based visualization along multiple density isosurfaces on which we visualize points of vertical exchange and the distribution of properties such as temperature and biogeochemical tracers. Previous work involving this model examined the change in the energetics driving overturning circulation and mixing between simulations of LGM and preindustrial conditions. This visualization elucidates the relationship between locations of vertical exchange and mixing, as well as demonstrates the effects of circulation and mixing on the distribution of tracers such as carbon isotopes.

Research Review, 1983

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

The Global Modeling and Simulation Branch (GMSB) of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) is engaged in general circulation modeling studies related to global atmospheric and oceanographic research. The research activities discussed are organized into two disciplines: Global Weather/Observing Systems and Climate/Ocean-Air Interactions. The Global Weather activities are grouped in four areas: (1) Analysis and Forecast Studies, (2) Satellite Observing Systems, (3) Analysis and Model Development, (4) Atmospheric Dynamics and Diagnostic Studies. The GLAS Analysis/Forecast/Retrieval System was applied to both FGGE and post FGGE periods. The resulting analyses have already been used in a large number of theoretical studies of atmospheric dynamics, forecast impact studies and development of new or improved algorithms for the utilization of satellite data. Ocean studies have focused on the analysis of long-term global sea surface temperature data, for use in the study of the response of the atmosphere to sea surface temperature anomalies. Climate research has concentrated on the simulation of global cloudiness, and on the sensitivities of the climate to sea surface temperature and ground wetness anomalies.

Circulation of the gyres of the world ocean: Observation modeling using TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng; Zlotnicki, V.; Holland, W. R.; Malanotte-Rizzoli, P.

1991-01-01

The overall objectives of the proposed investigation are to study the dynamics of the large-scale recirculating cells of water in the ocean, which are loosely defined as 'gyres' in this study. A gyre is normally composed of a swift western boundary current (e.g., the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio), a tight recirculating cell attached to the current, and a large-scale sluggish return flow. The water, of course, is not entirely recirculating within a gyre. The exchange of water among gyres is an important process in maintaining the meridional heat transport of the ocean. The gyres constitute a major mode of water movement in the ocean and play significant roles in the global climate system.

Mantle dynamics following supercontinent formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heron, Philip J.

This thesis presents mantle convection numerical simulations of supercontinent formation. Approximately 300 million years ago, through the large-scale subduction of oceanic sea floor, continental material amalgamated to form the supercontinent Pangea. For 100 million years after its formation, Pangea remained relatively stationary, and subduction of oceanic material featured on its margins. The present-day location of the continents is due to the rifting apart of Pangea, with supercontinent dispersal being characterized by increased volcanic activity linked to the generation of deep mantle plumes. The work presented here investigates the thermal evolution of mantle dynamics (e.g., mantle temperatures and sub-continental plumes) following the formation of a supercontinent. Specifically, continental insulation and continental margin subduction are analyzed. Continental material, as compared to oceanic material, inhibits heat flow from the mantle. Previous numerical simulations have shown that the formation of a stationary supercontinent would elevate sub-continental mantle temperatures due to the effect of continental insulation, leading to the break-up of the continent. By modelling a vigorously convecting mantle that features thermally and mechanically distinct continental and oceanic plates, this study shows the effect of continental insulation on the mantle to be minimal. However, the formation of a supercontinent results in sub-continental plume formation due to the re-positioning of subduction zones to the margins of the continent. Accordingly, it is demonstrated that continental insulation is not a significant factor in producing sub-supercontinent plumes but that subduction patterns control the location and timing of upwelling formation. A theme throughout the thesis is an inquiry into why geodynamic studies would produce different results. Mantle viscosity, Rayleigh number, continental size, continental insulation, and oceanic plate boundary evolution are explored in over 600 2D and over 20 3D numerical simulations to better understand how modelling method affects conclusions on mantle convection studies. The results from this thesis show that the failure to model tectonic plates, a high vigour of convection, and a (pseudo) temperature-dependent viscosity would distort the role of mantle plumes, continent insulation, and subduction in the thermal evolution of mantle dynamics.

Global Catastrophes in Earth History: An Interdisciplinary Conference on Impacts, Volcanism, and Mass Mortality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

Topics addressed include: Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions; geologial indicators for meteorite collisions; carbon dioxide catastrophes; volcanism; climatic changes; geochemistry; mineralogy; fossil records; biospheric traumas; stratigraphy; mathematical models; and ocean dynamics.

Late Pleistocene variations in Antarctica sea ice. I - Effect of orbital isolation changes. II - Effect of interhemispheric deep-ocean heat exchange

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crowley, Thomas J.; Parkinson, Claire L.

1988-01-01

A dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model is presently used to ascertain the effects of orbitally-induced insolation changes on Antarctic sea-ice cover; the results thus obtained are compared with modified CLIMAP reconstructions of sea-ice 18,000 years ago. The minor influence exerted by insolation on Pleistocene sea-ice distributions is attributable to a number of factors. In the second part of this investigation, variations in the production of warm North Atlantic Deep Water are proposed as a mechanism constituting the linkage between climate fluctuations in the Northern and Southern hemispheres during the Pleistocene; this hypothesis is tested by examining the sensitivity of the dynamic-thermodynamic model for Antarctic sea-ice changes in vertical ocean heat flux, and comparing the simulations with modified CLIMAP sea-ice maps for 18,000 years ago.

Sea Level Budget along the East Coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pease, A. M.; Davis, J. L.; Vinogradova, N. T.

2016-12-01

We analyzed tide gauge data, taken from 1955 to 2015, from 29 locations along the east coast of North America. A well-documented period of sea-level acceleration began around 1990. The sea level rate (referenced to epoch 1985.0) and acceleration (post-1990) are spatially and temporally variable, due to various physical processes, each of which is also spatially and temporally variable. To determine the sea-level budgets for rate and acceleration, we considered a number of major contributors to sea level change: ocean density and dynamics, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), the inverted barometer effect, and mass change associated with the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The geographic variability in the budgets for sea-level rate is dominated by GIA. At some sites, GIA is the largest contributor to the rate. The geographic variability in the budgets for sea-level acceleration is dominated by ocean dynamics and density and GIS mass loss. The figure below shows budgets for sea-level rate (left) and acceleration (right) for Key West, Fla., (top) and The Battery in New York City (bottom). The blue represents values (with error bar shown) estimated from tide gauge observations, and the yellow represents the total values estimated from the individual model contributions (each in red, green, cyan, pink, and black). The estimated totals for rate and acceleration are good matches to the tide-gauge inferences. To achieve a reasonable fit, a scaling factor (admittance) for the combined contribution of ocean dynamics and density was estimated; this admittance may reflect the low spatial sampling of the GECCO2 model we used, or other problems in modeling coastal sea-level. The significant contributions of mass loss to the acceleration enable us to predict that, if such mass-loss continues or increases, the character of sea-level change on the North American east coast will change in the next 50-100 years. In particular, whereas GIA presently dominates the spatial variability of sea-level change, mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica will dominate it by 2050-2100. However, the long-term contribution of ocean dynamics and density remain more of a question.

Patterns and Trends of Primary Production, Inorganic Carbon and Oxygen and Their Ecosystem Impacts in a Regional Biogeochemical Ocean Model for Atlantic Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fennel, K.; Rutherford, K. E.; Kuhn, A. M.; Zhang, W.; Brennan, C. E.; Zhang, R.

2016-12-01

Representing coastal oceans in global biogeochemical models is a challenge, yet the ecosystems in these regions are most vulnerable to the combined stressors of ocean warming, deoxygenation, acidification, eutrophication and fishing. Coastal regions also have large air-sea fluxes of CO2, making them an important but poorly quantified component of the global carbon cycle, and are the most relevant for human activities. Regional model applications that are nested within large-scale or global models are necessary for detailed studies of coastal regions. We present results from such a regional biogeochemical model for the northwestern North Atlantic shelves and adjacent deep ocean of Atlantic Canada. The model is an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and includes an NPZD-type nitrogen cycle model with explicit representation of dissolved oxygen and inorganic carbon. The region is at the confluence of the Gulf Stream and Labrador Current making it highly dynamic, a challenge for analysis and prediction, and prone to large changes. Historically a rich fishing ground, coastal ecosystems in Atlantic Canada have undergone dramatic changes including the collapse of several economically important fish stocks and the listing of many species as threatened or endangered. Furthermore it is unclear whether the region is a net source or sink of atmospheric CO2 with estimates of the size and direction of the net air-sea CO2 flux remaining controversial. We will discuss simulated patterns of primary production, inorganic carbon fluxes and oxygen trends in the context of circulation features and shelf residence times for the present ocean state and present future projections.

Ocean Heat Content Reveals Secrets of Fish Migrations

PubMed Central

Luo, Jiangang; Ault, Jerald S.; Shay, Lynn K.; Hoolihan, John P.; Prince, Eric D.; Brown, Craig A.; Rooker, Jay R.

2015-01-01

For centuries, the mechanisms surrounding spatially complex animal migrations have intrigued scientists and the public. We present a new methodology using ocean heat content (OHC), a habitat metric that is normally a fundamental part of hurricane intensity forecasting, to estimate movements and migration of satellite-tagged marine fishes. Previous satellite-tagging research of fishes using archival depth, temperature and light data for geolocations have been too coarse to resolve detailed ocean habitat utilization. We combined tag data with OHC estimated from ocean circulation and transport models in an optimization framework that substantially improved geolocation accuracy over SST-based tracks. The OHC-based movement track provided the first quantitative evidence that many of the tagged highly migratory fishes displayed affinities for ocean fronts and eddies. The OHC method provides a new quantitative tool for studying dynamic use of ocean habitats, migration processes and responses to environmental changes by fishes, and further, improves ocean animal tracking and extends satellite-based animal tracking data for other potential physical, ecological, and fisheries applications. PMID:26484541

Early Student Support for a Process Study of Oceanic Responses to Typhoons

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

effect of these oceanic processes on air–sea fluxes during tropical cyclone passage will aid understanding of storm dynamics and structure. The ocean’s... Coriolis force, and the wind stress. This assumption is justified using the PWP3D model simulation. Before passage of the tropical cyclone eye, the...momentum balance is nearly linear, with a negligible pressure gradient effect . Most of the observed horizontal kinetic energy is within the upper 100 m

Optimal Combining Data for Improving Ocean Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

hyperbolic or elliptic) and on the Hurst exponent characterizing the dynamics type (local or non-local). 3. Fusion data for estimating RD. Theoretical...1) RD vs time and different values of Hurst exponent h = 0.1 (black), h = 1 (red), h = 2 (blue) γ = 0.1,Ω = 0, 2) Same for γ = 0.1,Ω = 2 ). 3...accurate estimating the upper ocean velocity field and mixing characteristics such as relative dispersion and finite size Lyapunov exponent , (2

Scales and scaling in turbulent ocean sciences; physics-biology coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitt, Francois

2015-04-01

Geophysical fields possess huge fluctuations over many spatial and temporal scales. In the ocean, such property at smaller scales is closely linked to marine turbulence. The velocity field is varying from large scales to the Kolmogorov scale (mm) and scalar fields from large scales to the Batchelor scale, which is often much smaller. As a consequence, it is not always simple to determine at which scale a process should be considered. The scale question is hence fundamental in marine sciences, especially when dealing with physics-biology coupling. For example, marine dynamical models have typically a grid size of hundred meters or more, which is more than 105 times larger than the smallest turbulence scales (Kolmogorov scale). Such scale is fine for the dynamics of a whale (around 100 m) but for a fish larvae (1 cm) or a copepod (1 mm) a description at smaller scales is needed, due to the nonlinear nature of turbulence. The same is verified also for biogeochemical fields such as passive and actives tracers (oxygen, fluorescence, nutrients, pH, turbidity, temperature, salinity...) In this framework, we will discuss the scale problem in turbulence modeling in the ocean, and the relation of Kolmogorov's and Batchelor's scales of turbulence in the ocean, with the size of marine animals. We will also consider scaling laws for organism-particle Reynolds numbers (from whales to bacteria), and possible scaling laws for organism's accelerations.

Coastal Carbon Dynamics as a New Chapter in SOCCR2: Tidal Wetlands and Estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Windham-Myers, L.; Megonigal, P.; Cai, W. J.; Hopkinson, C.; Wang, A. Z.; Andersson, A. J.; Hinson, A.; Lagomasino, D.; Peteet, D. M.; Giri, C. P.; Howard, J.; Tang, J.; Crosswell, J.; Martin Hernandez-Ayon, J. M.; Dunton, K. H.; Kroeger, K. D.; Paulsen, M. L.; Allison, M. A.; Siedlecki, S. A.; Alin, S. R.; Hu, X.; Tzortziou, M.; Najjar, R.; Schafer, K. V.; Watson, E.; Pidgeon, E.

2016-12-01

Estuaries and tidal wetlands have been identified as distinct landscape elements for carbon cycling, worthy of a chapter in the pending State of the Carbon Cycle Report - version 2. Despite relatively small aerial coverage compared to other subsystems, tidal wetlands and estuaries have the greatest influence on carbon dynamics of any coastal ocean subsystem. As conduits that filter all material passing between land and the sea, they also exhibit the highest transfer rates of CO2 with the atmosphere of any of the coastal ocean subsystems. Carbon dynamics in estuaries and wetlands are constantly changing, reflecting geomorphic and ecological responses to long and short-term perturbations in external drivers such as sea-level rise, climate change, nutrient loading and land-use change. The influence of these drivers are profound in coastal systems, often more so than in inland wetlands or open ocean environments, and thus require distinct attention to patterns and processes associated with coastal ecosystem functioning, including carbon sequestration services in tidal wetland soils. This new chapter focusses on data sources available in North America to: (1) assess the current state of carbon stocks and fluxes in coastal settings, (2) document understanding of drivers associated with significant fluxes and stocks, and (3) synthesize carbon dynamics from a global context to regional perspectives (East, West, Gulf and high-latitude coastlines). Insights from remote sensing, in situ field data, and numerical models have advanced our ability to monitor and project carbon cycling in this dynamic and narrow fringe at the land-ocean interface. This synthetic chapter will address how these advances can help in decision making, as well as address remaining gaps in our knowledge and monitoring capabilities for these diverse and productive habitats.

Residual β activity of particulate (234)Th as a novel proxy for tracking sediment resuspension in the ocean.

PubMed

Lin, Wuhui; Chen, Liqi; Zeng, Shi; Li, Tao; Wang, Yinghui; Yu, Kefu

2016-06-02

Sediment resuspension occurs in the global ocean, which greatly affects material exchange between the sediment and the overlying seawater. The behaviours of carbon, nutrients, heavy metals, and other pollutants at the sediment-seawater boundary will further link to climate change, eutrophication, and marine pollution. Residual β activity of particulate (234)Th (RAP234) is used as a novel proxy to track sediment resuspension in different marine environments, including the western Arctic Ocean, the South China Sea, and the Southern Ocean. Sediment resuspension identified by high activity of RAP234 is supported by different lines of evidence including seawater turbidity, residence time of total (234)Th, Goldschmidt's classification, and ratio of RAP234 to particulate organic carbon. A conceptual model is proposed to elucidate the mechanism for RAP234 with dominant contributions from (234)Th-(238)U and (212)Bi-(228)Th. The 'slope assumption' for RAP234 indicated increasing intensity of sediment resuspension from spring to autumn under the influence of the East Asian monsoon system. RAP234 can shed new light on (234)Th-based particle dynamics and should benefit the interpretation of historical (234)Th-(238)U database. RAP234 resembles lithophile elements and has broad implications for investigating particle dynamics in the estuary-shelf-slope-ocean continuum and linkage of the atmosphere-ocean-sediment system.

Residual β activity of particulate 234Th as a novel proxy for tracking sediment resuspension in the ocean

PubMed Central

Lin, Wuhui; Chen, Liqi; Zeng, Shi; Li, Tao; Wang, Yinghui; Yu, Kefu

2016-01-01

Sediment resuspension occurs in the global ocean, which greatly affects material exchange between the sediment and the overlying seawater. The behaviours of carbon, nutrients, heavy metals, and other pollutants at the sediment-seawater boundary will further link to climate change, eutrophication, and marine pollution. Residual β activity of particulate 234Th (RAP234) is used as a novel proxy to track sediment resuspension in different marine environments, including the western Arctic Ocean, the South China Sea, and the Southern Ocean. Sediment resuspension identified by high activity of RAP234 is supported by different lines of evidence including seawater turbidity, residence time of total 234Th, Goldschmidt’s classification, and ratio of RAP234 to particulate organic carbon. A conceptual model is proposed to elucidate the mechanism for RAP234 with dominant contributions from 234Th-238U and 212Bi-228Th. The ‘slope assumption’ for RAP234 indicated increasing intensity of sediment resuspension from spring to autumn under the influence of the East Asian monsoon system. RAP234 can shed new light on 234Th-based particle dynamics and should benefit the interpretation of historical 234Th-238U database. RAP234 resembles lithophile elements and has broad implications for investigating particle dynamics in the estuary-shelf-slope-ocean continuum and linkage of the atmosphere-ocean-sediment system. PMID:27252085

Understanding the effect of an excessive cold tongue bias on projecting the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ying, Jun; Huang, Ping; Lian, Tao; Tan, Hongjian

2018-05-01

An excessive cold tongue is a common bias among current climate models, and considered an important source of bias in projections of tropical Pacific climate change under global warming. Specifically, the excessive cold tongue bias is closely related to the tropical Pacific SST warming (TPSW) pattern. In this study, we reveal that two processes are the critical mechanisms by which the excessive cold tongue bias influences the projection of the TPSW pattern, based on 32 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP5). On the one hand, by assuming that the shortwave (SW) radiation to SST feedback is linearly correlated to the cold tongue SST, the excessive cold tongue bias can induce an overly weak negative SW-SST feedback in the central Pacific, which can lead to a positive SST warming bias in the central to western Pacific (around 150°E-140°W). Moreover, the overly weak local atmospheric dynamics response to SST is a key process of the overly weak SW-SST feedback, compared with the cloud response to atmospheric dynamics and the SW radiation response to cloud. On the other hand, the overly strong ocean zonal overturning circulation associated with the excessive cold tongue bias results in an overestimation of the ocean dynamical thermostat effect, with enhanced ocean stratification under global warming, leading to a negative SST warming bias in the central and eastern Pacific (around 170°W-120°W). These two processes jointly form a positive SST warming bias in the western Pacific, contributing to a La Niña-like warming bias. Therefore, we suggest a more realistic climatological cold tongue SST is needed for a more reliable projection of the TPSW pattern.

Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, Matthew; Minobe, Shoshiro; Barreiro, Marcelo; Bordoni, Simona; Kaspi, Yohai; Kuwano-Yoshida, Akira; Keenlyside, Noel; Manzini, Elisa; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Sutton, Rowan; Xie, Shang-Ping; Zolina, Olga

2018-01-01

Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herrnstein, Aaron R.

An ocean model with adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) capability is presented for simulating ocean circulation on decade time scales. The model closely resembles the LLNL ocean general circulation model with some components incorporated from other well known ocean models when appropriate. Spatial components are discretized using finite differences on a staggered grid where tracer and pressure variables are defined at cell centers and velocities at cell vertices (B-grid). Horizontal motion is modeled explicitly with leapfrog and Euler forward-backward time integration, and vertical motion is modeled semi-implicitly. New AMR strategies are presented for horizontal refinement on a B-grid, leapfrog time integration,more » and time integration of coupled systems with unequal time steps. These AMR capabilities are added to the LLNL software package SAMRAI (Structured Adaptive Mesh Refinement Application Infrastructure) and validated with standard benchmark tests. The ocean model is built on top of the amended SAMRAI library. The resulting model has the capability to dynamically increase resolution in localized areas of the domain. Limited basin tests are conducted using various refinement criteria and produce convergence trends in the model solution as refinement is increased. Carbon sequestration simulations are performed on decade time scales in domains the size of the North Atlantic and the global ocean. A suggestion is given for refinement criteria in such simulations. AMR predicts maximum pH changes and increases in CO 2 concentration near the injection sites that are virtually unattainable with a uniform high resolution due to extremely long run times. Fine scale details near the injection sites are achieved by AMR with shorter run times than the finest uniform resolution tested despite the need for enhanced parallel performance. The North Atlantic simulations show a reduction in passive tracer errors when AMR is applied instead of a uniform coarse resolution. No dramatic or persistent signs of error growth in the passive tracer outgassing or the ocean circulation are observed to result from AMR.« less

Fortnightly Ocean Tides, Earth Rotation, and Mantle Anelasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard; Egbert, Gary

2012-01-01

The fortnightly Mf ocean tide is the largest of the long-period tides (periods between 1 week and 18.6 years), but Mf is still very small, generally 2 cm or less. All long-period tides are thought to be near equilibrium with the astronomical tidal potential, with an almost pure zonal structure. However, several lines of evidence point to Mf having a significant dynamic response to forcing. We use a combination of numerical modeling, satellite altimetry, and observations of polar motion to determine the Mf ocean tide and to place constraints on certain global properties, such as angular momentum. Polar motion provides the only constraints on Mf tidal currents. With a model of the Mf ocean tide in hand, we use it to remove the effects of the ocean from estimates of fortnightly variations in length-of-day. The latter is dominated by the earth's body tide, but a small residual allows us to place new constraints on the anelasticity of the earth's mantle. The result gives the first experimental confirmation of theoretical predictions made by Wahr and Bergen in 1986.

Ocean-ice interaction in the marginal ice zone using synthetic aperture radar imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Antony K.; Peng, Chich Y.; Weingartner, Thomas J.

1994-01-01

Ocean-ice interaction processes in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) by wind, waves, and mesoscale features, such as up/downwelling and eddies are studied using Earth Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS) 1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images and an ocean-ice interaction model. A sequence of seven SAR images of the MIZ in the Chukchi Sea with 3 or 6 days interval are investigated for ice edge advance/retreat. Simultaneous current measurements from the northeast Chukchi Sea, as well as the Barrow wind record, are used to interpret the MIZ dynamics. SAR spectra of waves in ice and ocean waves in the Bering and Chukchi Sea are compared for the study of wave propagation and dominant SAR imaging mechanism. By using the SAR-observed ice edge configuration and wind and wave field in the Chukchi Sea as inputs, a numerical simulation has been performed with the ocean-ice interaction model. After 3 days of wind and wave forcing the resulting ice edge configuration, eddy formation, and flow velocity field are shown to be consistent with SAR observations.

The use of EuroCordex in marine climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinker, Jonathan; Palmer, Matthew; Lowe, Jason; Howard, Tom

2017-04-01

The Northwest European Shelf seas (NWS, including the North Sea, Irish Sea and Celtic Sea) are of economic, environmental and cultural importance to a number of European countries. However, their representation by global climate models (GCMs) is very crude, due to their inability to represent the complex geometry and the absence of tides. Therefore, there is a need to employ dynamical downscaling methods when considering the potential impacts of climate change on the European (and other) shelf seas. Using a shelf seas model to dynamically downscale of the ocean component of the GCM is a well established method. While taking open ocean lateral boundary conditions from the GCM ocean is acceptable, using surface flux forcings from the GCM atmosphere is often problematic. The CORDEX project provides an important dataset of high spatial and temporal resolution atmospheric forcings, derived from 'parent' CMIP5 GCM simulations. We drive the NEMO shelf seas model with data from CMIP5 models and EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) data to produce a set of NWS climate projections. We require relatively high temporal resolution output, and run-off (for the river forcings), and so are limited to a subset of the available EURO-CORDEX RCMs. From these we select two CMIP5 GCMs with the same RCM with two emissions scenarios to give a minimum estimate of GCM model structural and emission scenario uncertainty. Other experiments allow an initial estimate of the uncertainty associated with the model structure of both the shelf seas and the RCM. Our analysis is focused on the uncertainty associated with the mean change in a number of physical marine impacts and the drivers of coastal variability and change, including sea level and the propagation of open ocean signals onto the shelf. Our work is part of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) and will inform the following UK Climate Change Risk Assessments, required as part of the Climate Change Act.

The influence of extratropical cloud phase and amount feedbacks on climate sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, William R.; Kay, Jennifer E.

2018-04-01

Global coupled climate models have large long-standing cloud and radiation biases, calling into question their ability to simulate climate and climate change. This study assesses the impact of reducing shortwave radiation biases on climate sensitivity within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The model is modified by increasing supercooled cloud liquid to better match absorbed shortwave radiation observations over the Southern Ocean while tuning to reduce a compensating tropical shortwave bias. With a thermodynamic mixed-layer ocean, equilibrium warming in response to doubled CO2 increases from 4.1 K in the control to 5.6 K in the modified model. This 1.5 K increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity is caused by changes in two extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks. First, reduced conversion of cloud ice to liquid at high southern latitudes decreases the magnitude of a negative cloud phase feedback. Second, warming is amplified in the mid-latitudes by a larger positive shortwave cloud feedback. The positive cloud feedback, usually associated with the subtropics, arises when sea surface warming increases the moisture gradient between the boundary layer and free troposphere. The increased moisture gradient enhances the effectiveness of mixing to dry the boundary layer, which decreases cloud amount and optical depth. When a full-depth ocean with dynamics and thermodynamics is included, ocean heat uptake preferentially cools the mid-latitude Southern Ocean, partially inhibiting the positive cloud feedback and slowing warming. Overall, the results highlight strong connections between Southern Ocean mixed-phase cloud partitioning, cloud feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake in a climate forced by greenhouse gas changes.

Using a Very Large Ensemble to Examine the Role of the Ocean in Recent Warming Trends.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, S. N.; Millar, R.; Otto, A.; Yamazaki, K.; Allen, M. R.

2014-12-01

Results from a very large (~10,000 member) perturbed physics and perturbed initial condition ensemble are presented for the period 1980 to present. A set of model versions that can shadow recent surface and upper ocean observations are identified and the range of uncertainty in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) assessed. This experiment uses the Met Office Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), a coupled model with fully dynamic atmosphere and ocean components as part of the climateprediction.net distributive computing project. Parameters are selected so that the model has good top of atmosphere radiative balance and simulations are run without flux adjustments that "nudge" the climate towards a realistic state, but have an adverse effect on important ocean processes. This ensemble provides scientific insights on the possible role of the AMOC, among other factors, in climate trends, or lack thereof, over the past 20 years. This ensemble is also used to explore how the occurrence of hiatus events of different durations varies for models with different transient climate response (TCR). We show that models with a higher TCR are less likely to produce a 15-year warming hiatus in global surface temperature than those with a lower TCR.

Sea Ice in the NCEP Seasonal Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, X.; Saha, S.; Grumbine, R. W.; Bailey, D. A.; Carton, J.; Penny, S. G.

2017-12-01

Sea ice is known to play a significant role in the global climate system. For a weather or climate forecast system (CFS), it is important that the realistic distribution of sea ice is represented. Sea ice prediction is challenging; sea ice can form or melt, it can move with wind and/or ocean current; sea ice interacts with both the air above and ocean underneath, it influences by, and has impact on the air and ocean conditions. NCEP has developed coupled CFS (version 2, CFSv2) and also carried out CFS reanalysis (CFSR), which includes a coupled model with the NCEP global forecast system, a land model, an ocean model (GFDL MOM4), and a sea ice model. In this work, we present the NCEP coupled model, the CFSv2 sea ice component that includes a dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model and a simple "assimilation" scheme, how sea ice has been assimilated in CFSR, the characteristics of the sea ice from CFSR and CFSv2, and the improvements of sea ice needed for future seasonal prediction system, part of the Unified Global Coupled System (UGCS), which is being developed and under testing, including sea ice data assimilation with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). Preliminary results from the UGCS testing will also be presented.

Quantifying the role of ocean initial conditions in decadal prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matei, D.; Pohlmann, H.; Müller, W.; Haak, H.; Jungclaus, J.; Marotzke, J.

2009-04-01

The forecast skill of decadal climate predictions is investigated using two different initialization strategies. First we apply an assimilation of ocean synthesis data provided by the GECCO project (Köhl and Stammer 2008) as initial conditions for the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The results show promising skill up to decadal time scales particularly over the North Atlantic (see also Pohlmann et al. 2009). However, mismatches between the ocean climates of GECCO and the MPI-OM model may lead to inconsistencies in the representation of water masses. Therefore, we pursue an alternative approach to the representation of the observed North Atlantic climate for the period 1948-2007. Using the same MPI-OM ocean model as in the coupled system, we perform an ensemble of four NCEP integrations. The ensemble mean temperature and salinity anomalies are then nudged into the coupled model, followed by hindcast/forecast experiments. The model gives dynamically consistent three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields, thereby avoiding the problems of model drift that were encountered when the assimilation experiment was only driven by reconstructed SSTs (Keenlyside et al. 2008, Pohlmann et al. 2009). Differences between the two assimilation approaches are discussed by comparing them with the observational data in key regions and processes, such as North Atlantic and Tropical Pacific climate, MOC variability, Subpolar Gyre variability.

Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.

2009-12-01

To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment,more » and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region’s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.« less

A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

2008-09-01

An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization [Senina, I., Sibert, J., Lehodey, P., 2008. Parameter estimation for basin-scale ecosystem-linked population models of large pelagic predators: application to skipjack tuna. Progress in Oceanography]. Once this evaluation and parameterization is complete, it may be possible to use the model for management of tuna stocks in the context of climate and ecosystem variability, and to investigate potential changes due to anthropogenic activities including global warming and fisheries pressures and management scenarios.

Independent evolution of baleen whale gigantism linked to Plio-Pleistocene ocean dynamics

PubMed Central

Goldbogen, Jeremy A.

2017-01-01

Vertebrates have evolved to gigantic sizes repeatedly over the past 250 Myr, reaching their extreme in today's baleen whales (Mysticeti). Hypotheses for the evolution of exceptionally large size in mysticetes range from niche partitioning to predator avoidance, but there has been no quantitative examination of body size evolutionary dynamics in this clade and it remains unclear when, why or how gigantism evolved. By fitting phylogenetic macroevolutionary models to a dataset consisting of living and extinct species, we show that mysticetes underwent a clade-wide shift in their mode of body size evolution during the Plio-Pleistocene. This transition, from Brownian motion-like dynamics to a trended random walk towards larger size, is temporally linked to the onset of seasonally intensified upwelling along coastal ecosystems. High prey densities resulting from wind-driven upwelling, rather than abundant resources alone, are the primary determinant of efficient foraging in extant mysticetes and Late Pliocene changes in ocean dynamics may have provided an ecological pathway to gigantism in multiple independent lineages. PMID:28539520