Using transfer functions to quantify El Niño Southern Oscillation dynamics in data and models.

PubMed

MacMartin, Douglas G; Tziperman, Eli

2014-09-08

Transfer function tools commonly used in engineering control analysis can be used to better understand the dynamics of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), compare data with models and identify systematic model errors. The transfer function describes the frequency-dependent input-output relationship between any pair of causally related variables, and can be estimated from time series. This can be used first to assess whether the underlying relationship is or is not frequency dependent, and if so, to diagnose the underlying differential equations that relate the variables, and hence describe the dynamics of individual subsystem processes relevant to ENSO. Estimating process parameters allows the identification of compensating model errors that may lead to a seemingly realistic simulation in spite of incorrect model physics. This tool is applied here to the TAO array ocean data, the GFDL-CM2.1 and CCSM4 general circulation models, and to the Cane-Zebiak ENSO model. The delayed oscillator description is used to motivate a few relevant processes involved in the dynamics, although any other ENSO mechanism could be used instead. We identify several differences in the processes between the models and data that may be useful for model improvement. The transfer function methodology is also useful in understanding the dynamics and evaluating models of other climate processes.

A modified dynamical model of drying process of polymer blend solution coated on a flat substrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kagami, Hiroyuki

2008-05-01

We have proposed and modified a model of drying process of polymer solution coated on a flat substrate for flat polymer film fabrication. And for example numerical simulation of the model reproduces a typical thickness profile of the polymer film formed after drying. Then we have clarified dependence of distribution of polymer molecules on a flat substrate on a various parameters based on analysis of numerical simulations. Then we drove nonlinear equations of drying process from the dynamical model and the fruits were reported. The subject of above studies was limited to solution having one kind of solute though the model could essentially deal with solution having some kinds of solutes. But nowadays discussion of drying process of a solution having some kinds of solutes is needed because drying process of solution having some kinds of solutes appears in many industrial scenes. Polymer blend solution is one instance. And typical resist consists of a few kinds of polymers. Then we introduced a dynamical model of drying process of polymer blend solution coated on a flat substrate and results of numerical simulations of the dynamical model. But above model was the simplest one. In this study, we modify above dynamical model of drying process of polymer blend solution adding effects that some parameters change with time as functions of some variables to it. Then we consider essence of drying process of polymer blend solution through comparison between results of numerical simulations of the modified model and those of the former model.

The Challenges to Coupling Dynamic Geospatial Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldstein, N

2006-06-23

Many applications of modeling spatial dynamic systems focus on a single system and a single process, ignoring the geographic and systemic context of the processes being modeled. A solution to this problem is the coupled modeling of spatial dynamic systems. Coupled modeling is challenging for both technical reasons, as well as conceptual reasons. This paper explores the benefits and challenges to coupling or linking spatial dynamic models, from loose coupling, where information transfer between models is done by hand, to tight coupling, where two (or more) models are merged as one. To illustrate the challenges, a coupled model of Urbanizationmore » and Wildfire Risk is presented. This model, called Vesta, was applied to the Santa Barbara, California region (using real geospatial data), where Urbanization and Wildfires occur and recur, respectively. The preliminary results of the model coupling illustrate that coupled modeling can lead to insight into the consequences of processes acting on their own.« less

Modeling the Fluid Withdraw and Injection Induced Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, C.

2016-12-01

We present an open source numerical code, Defmod, that allows one to model the induced seismicity in an efficient and standalone manner. The fluid withdraw and injection induced earthquake has been a great concern to the industries including oil/gas, wastewater disposal and CO2 sequestration. Being able to numerically model the induced seismicity is long desired. To do that, one has to consider at lease two processes, a steady process that describes the inducing and aseismic stages before and in between the seismic events, and an abrupt process that describes the dynamic fault rupture accompanied by seismic energy radiations during the events. The steady process can be adequately modeled by a quasi-static model, while the abrupt process has to be modeled by a dynamic model. In most of the published modeling works, only one of these processes is considered. The geomechanicists and reservoir engineers are focused more on the quasi-static modeling, whereas the geophysicists and seismologists are focused more on the dynamic modeling. The finite element code Defmod combines these two models into a hybrid model that uses the failure criterion and frictional laws to adaptively switch between the (quasi-)static and dynamic states. The code is capable of modeling episodic fault rupture driven by quasi-static loading, e.g. due to reservoir fluid withdraw and/or injection, and by dynamic loading, e.g. due to the foregoing earthquakes. We demonstrate a case study for the 2013 Azle earthquake.

A Neural Dynamic Model Generates Descriptions of Object-Oriented Actions.

PubMed

Richter, Mathis; Lins, Jonas; Schöner, Gregor

2017-01-01

Describing actions entails that relations between objects are discovered. A pervasively neural account of this process requires that fundamental problems are solved: the neural pointer problem, the binding problem, and the problem of generating discrete processing steps from time-continuous neural processes. We present a prototypical solution to these problems in a neural dynamic model that comprises dynamic neural fields holding representations close to sensorimotor surfaces as well as dynamic neural nodes holding discrete, language-like representations. Making the connection between these two types of representations enables the model to describe actions as well as to perceptually ground movement phrases-all based on real visual input. We demonstrate how the dynamic neural processes autonomously generate the processing steps required to describe or ground object-oriented actions. By solving the fundamental problems of neural pointing, binding, and emergent discrete processing, the model may be a first but critical step toward a systematic neural processing account of higher cognition. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Topics in Cognitive Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Cognitive Science Society.

Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Jing; Yuan, Ying

2017-12-01

Most existing methods for mediation analysis assume that mediation is a stationary, time-invariant process, which overlooks the inherently dynamic nature of many human psychological processes and behavioral activities. In this article, we consider mediation as a dynamic process that continuously changes over time. We propose Bayesian multilevel time-varying coefficient models to describe and estimate such dynamic mediation effects. By taking the nonparametric penalized spline approach, the proposed method is flexible and able to accommodate any shape of the relationship between time and mediation effects. Simulation studies show that the proposed method works well and faithfully reflects the true nature of the mediation process. By modeling mediation effect nonparametrically as a continuous function of time, our method provides a valuable tool to help researchers obtain a more complete understanding of the dynamic nature of the mediation process underlying psychological and behavioral phenomena. We also briefly discuss an alternative approach of using dynamic autoregressive mediation model to estimate the dynamic mediation effect. The computer code is provided to implement the proposed Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Dynamic Models of Insurgent Activity

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-19

Martin Short, P. Jeffrey Brantingham, Frederick Schoenberg, George Tita . Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime, Journal of the American...Mohler, P. J. Brantingham, G. E. Tita . Gang rivalry dynamics via coupled point process networks, Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - Series...8532-2-1 Laura Smith, Andrea Bertozzi, P. Jeffrey Brantingham, George Tita , Matthew Valasik. ADAPTATION OF AN ECOLOGICAL TERRITORIAL MODEL TOSTREET

Forest forming process and dynamic vegetation models under global change

Treesearch

A. Shvidenko; E. Gustafson

2009-01-01

The paper analyzes mathematical models that are used to project the dynamics of forest ecosystems on different spatial and temporal scales. Landscape disturbance and succession models (LDSMs) are of a particular interest for studying the forest forming process in Northern Eurasia. They have a solid empirical background and are able to model ecological processes under...

MIMO model of an interacting series process for Robust MPC via System Identification.

PubMed

Wibowo, Tri Chandra S; Saad, Nordin

2010-07-01

This paper discusses the empirical modeling using system identification technique with a focus on an interacting series process. The study is carried out experimentally using a gaseous pilot plant as the process, in which the dynamic of such a plant exhibits the typical dynamic of an interacting series process. Three practical approaches are investigated and their performances are evaluated. The models developed are also examined in real-time implementation of a linear model predictive control. The selected model is able to reproduce the main dynamic characteristics of the plant in open-loop and produces zero steady-state errors in closed-loop control system. Several issues concerning the identification process and the construction of a MIMO state space model for a series interacting process are deliberated. 2010 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling and Simulation of Metallurgical Process Based on Hybrid Petri Net

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Yujuan; Bao, Hong

2016-11-01

In order to achieve the goals of energy saving and emission reduction of iron and steel enterprises, an increasing number of modeling and simulation technologies are used to research and analyse metallurgical production process. In this paper, the basic principle of Hybrid Petri net is used to model and analyse the Metallurgical Process. Firstly, the definition of Hybrid Petri Net System of Metallurgical Process (MPHPNS) and its modeling theory are proposed. Secondly, the model of MPHPNS based on material flow is constructed. The dynamic flow of materials and the real-time change of each technological state in metallurgical process are simulated vividly by using this model. The simulation process can implement interaction between the continuous event dynamic system and the discrete event dynamic system at the same level, and play a positive role in the production decision.

A Decision Tool that Combines Discrete Event Software Process Models with System Dynamics Pieces for Software Development Cost Estimation and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mizell, Carolyn Barrett; Malone, Linda

2007-01-01

The development process for a large software development project is very complex and dependent on many variables that are dynamic and interrelated. Factors such as size, productivity and defect injection rates will have substantial impact on the project in terms of cost and schedule. These factors can be affected by the intricacies of the process itself as well as human behavior because the process is very labor intensive. The complex nature of the development process can be investigated with software development process models that utilize discrete event simulation to analyze the effects of process changes. The organizational environment and its effects on the workforce can be analyzed with system dynamics that utilizes continuous simulation. Each has unique strengths and the benefits of both types can be exploited by combining a system dynamics model and a discrete event process model. This paper will demonstrate how the two types of models can be combined to investigate the impacts of human resource interactions on productivity and ultimately on cost and schedule.

Application of dynamic flux balance analysis to an industrial Escherichia coli fermentation.

PubMed

Meadows, Adam L; Karnik, Rahi; Lam, Harry; Forestell, Sean; Snedecor, Brad

2010-03-01

We have developed a reactor-scale model of Escherichia coli metabolism and growth in a 1000 L process for the production of a recombinant therapeutic protein. The model consists of two distinct parts: (1) a dynamic, process specific portion that describes the time evolution of 37 process variables of relevance and (2) a flux balance based, 123-reaction metabolic model of E. coli metabolism. This model combines several previously reported modeling approaches including a growth rate-dependent biomass composition, maximum growth rate objective function, and dynamic flux balancing. In addition, we introduce concentration-dependent boundary conditions of transport fluxes, dynamic maintenance demands, and a state-dependent cellular objective. This formulation was able to describe specific runs with high-fidelity over process conditions including rich media, simultaneous acetate and glucose consumption, glucose minimal media, and phosphate depleted media. Furthermore, the model accurately describes the effect of process perturbations--such as glucose overbatching and insufficient aeration--on growth, metabolism, and titer. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Process Modeling and Dynamic Simulation for EAST Helium Refrigerator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Xiaofei; Fu, Peng; Zhuang, Ming; Qiu, Lilong; Hu, Liangbing

2016-06-01

In this paper, the process modeling and dynamic simulation for the EAST helium refrigerator has been completed. The cryogenic process model is described and the main components are customized in detail. The process model is controlled by the PLC simulator, and the realtime communication between the process model and the controllers is achieved by a customized interface. Validation of the process model has been confirmed based on EAST experimental data during the cool down process of 300-80 K. Simulation results indicate that this process simulator is able to reproduce dynamic behaviors of the EAST helium refrigerator very well for the operation of long pulsed plasma discharge. The cryogenic process simulator based on control architecture is available for operation optimization and control design of EAST cryogenic systems to cope with the long pulsed heat loads in the future. supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51306195) and Key Laboratory of Cryogenics, Technical Institute of Physics and Chemistry, CAS (No. CRYO201408)

A Hierarchical Multivariate Bayesian Approach to Ensemble Model output Statistics in Atmospheric Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-01

efficacy of statistical post-processing methods downstream of these dynamical model components with a hierarchical multivariate Bayesian approach to...Bayesian hierarchical modeling, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods , Metropolis algorithm, machine learning, atmospheric prediction 15. NUMBER OF PAGES...scale processes. However, this dissertation explores the efficacy of statistical post-processing methods downstream of these dynamical model components

A functional-dynamic reflection on participatory processes in modeling projects.

PubMed

Seidl, Roman

2015-12-01

The participation of nonscientists in modeling projects/studies is increasingly employed to fulfill different functions. However, it is not well investigated if and how explicitly these functions and the dynamics of a participatory process are reflected by modeling projects in particular. In this review study, I explore participatory modeling projects from a functional-dynamic process perspective. The main differences among projects relate to the functions of participation-most often, more than one per project can be identified, along with the degree of explicit reflection (i.e., awareness and anticipation) on the dynamic process perspective. Moreover, two main approaches are revealed: participatory modeling covering diverse approaches and companion modeling. It becomes apparent that the degree of reflection on the participatory process itself is not always explicit and perfectly visible in the descriptions of the modeling projects. Thus, the use of common protocols or templates is discussed to facilitate project planning, as well as the publication of project results. A generic template may help, not in providing details of a project or model development, but in explicitly reflecting on the participatory process. It can serve to systematize the particular project's approach to stakeholder collaboration, and thus quality management.

Architectural Improvements and New Processing Tools for the Open XAL Online Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allen, Christopher K; Pelaia II, Tom; Freed, Jonathan M

The online model is the component of Open XAL providing accelerator modeling, simulation, and dynamic synchronization to live hardware. Significant architectural changes and feature additions have been recently made in two separate areas: 1) the managing and processing of simulation data, and 2) the modeling of RF cavities. Simulation data and data processing have been completely decoupled. A single class manages all simulation data while standard tools were developed for processing the simulation results. RF accelerating cavities are now modeled as composite structures where parameter and dynamics computations are distributed. The beam and hardware models both maintain their relative phasemore » information, which allows for dynamic phase slip and elapsed time computation.« less

Inferring Instantaneous, Multivariate and Nonlinear Sensitivities for the Analysis of Feedback Processes in a Dynamical System: Lorenz Model Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aires, Filipe; Rossow, William B.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A new approach is presented for the analysis of feedback processes in a nonlinear dynamical system by observing its variations. The new methodology consists of statistical estimates of the sensitivities between all pairs of variables in the system based on a neural network modeling of the dynamical system. The model can then be used to estimate the instantaneous, multivariate and nonlinear sensitivities, which are shown to be essential for the analysis of the feedbacks processes involved in the dynamical system. The method is described and tested on synthetic data from the low-order Lorenz circulation model where the correct sensitivities can be evaluated analytically.

Sparse dynamical Boltzmann machine for reconstructing complex networks with binary dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yu-Zhong; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2018-03-01

Revealing the structure and dynamics of complex networked systems from observed data is a problem of current interest. Is it possible to develop a completely data-driven framework to decipher the network structure and different types of dynamical processes on complex networks? We develop a model named sparse dynamical Boltzmann machine (SDBM) as a structural estimator for complex networks that host binary dynamical processes. The SDBM attains its topology according to that of the original system and is capable of simulating the original binary dynamical process. We develop a fully automated method based on compressive sensing and a clustering algorithm to construct the SDBM. We demonstrate, for a variety of representative dynamical processes on model and real world complex networks, that the equivalent SDBM can recover the network structure of the original system and simulates its dynamical behavior with high precision.

Sparse dynamical Boltzmann machine for reconstructing complex networks with binary dynamics.

PubMed

Chen, Yu-Zhong; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2018-03-01

Revealing the structure and dynamics of complex networked systems from observed data is a problem of current interest. Is it possible to develop a completely data-driven framework to decipher the network structure and different types of dynamical processes on complex networks? We develop a model named sparse dynamical Boltzmann machine (SDBM) as a structural estimator for complex networks that host binary dynamical processes. The SDBM attains its topology according to that of the original system and is capable of simulating the original binary dynamical process. We develop a fully automated method based on compressive sensing and a clustering algorithm to construct the SDBM. We demonstrate, for a variety of representative dynamical processes on model and real world complex networks, that the equivalent SDBM can recover the network structure of the original system and simulates its dynamical behavior with high precision.

Dynamic analysis of process reactors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shadle, L.J.; Lawson, L.O.; Noel, S.D.

1995-06-01

The approach and methodology of conducting a dynamic analysis is presented in this poster session in order to describe how this type of analysis can be used to evaluate the operation and control of process reactors. Dynamic analysis of the PyGas{trademark} gasification process is used to illustrate the utility of this approach. PyGas{trademark} is the gasifier being developed for the Gasification Product Improvement Facility (GPIF) by Jacobs-Siffine Engineering and Riley Stoker. In the first step of the analysis, process models are used to calculate the steady-state conditions and associated sensitivities for the process. For the PyGas{trademark} gasifier, the process modelsmore » are non-linear mechanistic models of the jetting fluidized-bed pyrolyzer and the fixed-bed gasifier. These process sensitivities are key input, in the form of gain parameters or transfer functions, to the dynamic engineering models.« less

Site-level model intercomparison of high latitude and high altitude soil thermal dynamics in tundra and barren landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekici, A.; Chadburn, S.; Chaudhary, N.; Hajdu, L. H.; Marmy, A.; Peng, S.; Boike, J.; Burke, E.; Friend, A. D.; Hauck, C.; Krinner, G.; Langer, M.; Miller, P. A.; Beer, C.

2015-07-01

Modeling soil thermal dynamics at high latitudes and altitudes requires representations of physical processes such as snow insulation, soil freezing and thawing and subsurface conditions like soil water/ice content and soil texture. We have compared six different land models: JSBACH, ORCHIDEE, JULES, COUP, HYBRID8 and LPJ-GUESS, at four different sites with distinct cold region landscape types, to identify the importance of physical processes in capturing observed temperature dynamics in soils. The sites include alpine, high Arctic, wet polygonal tundra and non-permafrost Arctic, thus showing how a range of models can represent distinct soil temperature regimes. For all sites, snow insulation is of major importance for estimating topsoil conditions. However, soil physics is essential for the subsoil temperature dynamics and thus the active layer thicknesses. This analysis shows that land models need more realistic surface processes, such as detailed snow dynamics and moss cover with changing thickness and wetness, along with better representations of subsoil thermal dynamics.

A single-rate context-dependent learning process underlies rapid adaptation to familiar object dynamics.

PubMed

Ingram, James N; Howard, Ian S; Flanagan, J Randall; Wolpert, Daniel M

2011-09-01

Motor learning has been extensively studied using dynamic (force-field) perturbations. These induce movement errors that result in adaptive changes to the motor commands. Several state-space models have been developed to explain how trial-by-trial errors drive the progressive adaptation observed in such studies. These models have been applied to adaptation involving novel dynamics, which typically occurs over tens to hundreds of trials, and which appears to be mediated by a dual-rate adaptation process. In contrast, when manipulating objects with familiar dynamics, subjects adapt rapidly within a few trials. Here, we apply state-space models to familiar dynamics, asking whether adaptation is mediated by a single-rate or dual-rate process. Previously, we reported a task in which subjects rotate an object with known dynamics. By presenting the object at different visual orientations, adaptation was shown to be context-specific, with limited generalization to novel orientations. Here we show that a multiple-context state-space model, with a generalization function tuned to visual object orientation, can reproduce the time-course of adaptation and de-adaptation as well as the observed context-dependent behavior. In contrast to the dual-rate process associated with novel dynamics, we show that a single-rate process mediates adaptation to familiar object dynamics. The model predicts that during exposure to the object across multiple orientations, there will be a degree of independence for adaptation and de-adaptation within each context, and that the states associated with all contexts will slowly de-adapt during exposure in one particular context. We confirm these predictions in two new experiments. Results of the current study thus highlight similarities and differences in the processes engaged during exposure to novel versus familiar dynamics. In both cases, adaptation is mediated by multiple context-specific representations. In the case of familiar object dynamics, however, the representations can be engaged based on visual context, and are updated by a single-rate process.

An Empirical Validation of a Dynamic Systems Model of Interaction: Do Children of Different Sociometric Statuses Differ in Their Dyadic Play?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steenbeek, Henderien; van Geert, Paul

2008-01-01

Studying short-term dynamic processes and change mechanisms in interaction yields important knowledge that contributes to understanding long-term social development of children. In order to get a grip on this short-term dynamics of interaction processes, the authors made a dynamic systems model of dyadic interaction of children during one play…

Dynamic Modeling of Yield and Particle Size Distribution in Continuous Bayer Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenson, Jerry L.; Kapraun, Chris

Process engineers at Alcoa's Point Comfort refinery are using a dynamic model of the Bayer precipitation area to evaluate options in operating strategies. The dynamic model, a joint development effort between Point Comfort and the Alcoa Technical Center, predicts process yields, particle size distributions and occluded soda levels for various flowsheet configurations of the precipitation and classification circuit. In addition to rigorous heat, material and particle population balances, the model includes mechanistic kinetic expressions for particle growth and agglomeration and semi-empirical kinetics for nucleation and attrition. The kinetic parameters have been tuned to Point Comfort's operating data, with excellent matches between the model results and plant data. The model is written for the ACSL dynamic simulation program with specifically developed input/output graphical user interfaces to provide a user-friendly tool. Features such as a seed charge controller enhance the model's usefulness for evaluating operating conditions and process control approaches.

Multiscale regression modeling in mouse supraspinatus tendons reveals that dynamic processes act as mediators in structure-function relationships.

PubMed

Connizzo, Brianne K; Adams, Sheila M; Adams, Thomas H; Jawad, Abbas F; Birk, David E; Soslowsky, Louis J

2016-06-14

Recent advances in technology have allowed for the measurement of dynamic processes (re-alignment, crimp, deformation, sliding), but only a limited number of studies have investigated their relationship with mechanical properties. The overall objective of this study was to investigate the role of composition, structure, and the dynamic response to load in predicting tendon mechanical properties in a multi-level fashion mimicking native hierarchical collagen structure. Multiple linear regression models were investigated to determine the relationships between composition/structure, dynamic processes, and mechanical properties. Mediation was then used to determine if dynamic processes mediated structure-function relationships. Dynamic processes were strong predictors of mechanical properties. These predictions were location-dependent, with the insertion site utilizing all four dynamic responses and the midsubstance responding primarily with fibril deformation and sliding. In addition, dynamic processes were moderately predicted by composition and structure in a regionally-dependent manner. Finally, dynamic processes were partial mediators of the relationship between composition/structure and mechanical function, and results suggested that mediation is likely shared between multiple dynamic processes. In conclusion, the mechanical properties at the midsubstance of the tendon are controlled primarily by fibril structure and this region responds to load via fibril deformation and sliding. Conversely, the mechanical function at the insertion site is controlled by many other important parameters and the region responds to load via all four dynamic mechanisms. Overall, this study presents a strong foundation on which to design future experimental and modeling efforts in order to fully understand the complex structure-function relationships present in tendon. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear stochastic exclusion financial dynamics modeling and time-dependent intrinsic detrended cross-correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Wang, Jun

2017-09-01

In attempt to reproduce price dynamics of financial markets, a stochastic agent-based financial price model is proposed and investigated by stochastic exclusion process. The exclusion process, one of interacting particle systems, is usually thought of as modeling particle motion (with the conserved number of particles) in a continuous time Markov process. In this work, the process is utilized to imitate the trading interactions among the investing agents, in order to explain some stylized facts found in financial time series dynamics. To better understand the correlation behaviors of the proposed model, a new time-dependent intrinsic detrended cross-correlation (TDI-DCC) is introduced and performed, also, the autocorrelation analyses are applied in the empirical research. Furthermore, to verify the rationality of the financial price model, the actual return series are also considered to be comparatively studied with the simulation ones. The comparison results of return behaviors reveal that this financial price dynamics model can reproduce some correlation features of actual stock markets.

Marginal Utility of Conditional Sensitivity Analyses for Dynamic Models

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/MethodsDynamic ecological processes may be influenced by many factors. Simulation models thatmimic these processes often have complex implementations with many parameters. Sensitivityanalyses are subsequently used to identify critical parameters whose uncertai...

SSEM: A model for simulating runoff and erosion of saline-sodic soil slopes under coastal reclamation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dongdong; She, Dongli

2018-06-01

Current physically based erosion models do not carefully consider the dynamic variations of soil properties during rainfall and are unable to simulate saline-sodic soil slope erosion processes. The aim of this work was to build upon a complete model framework, SSEM, to simulate runoff and erosion processes for saline-sodic soils by coupling dynamic saturated hydraulic conductivity Ks and soil erodibility Kτ. Sixty rainfall simulation rainfall experiments (2 soil textures × 5 sodicity levels × 2 slope gradients × 3 duplicates) provided data for model calibration and validation. SSEM worked very well for simulating the runoff and erosion processes of saline-sodic silty clay. The runoff and erosion processes of saline-sodic silt loam were more complex than those of non-saline soils or soils with higher clay contents; thus, SSEM did not perform very well for some validation events. We further examined the model performances of four concepts: Dynamic Ks and Kτ (Case 1, SSEM), Dynamic Ks and Constant Kτ (Case 2), Constant Ks and Dynamic Kτ (Case 3) and Constant Ks and Constant Kτ (Case 4). The results demonstrated that the model, which considers dynamic variations in soil saturated hydraulic conductivity and soil erodibility, can provide more reasonable runoff and erosion prediction results for saline-sodic soils.

Modeling Endoplasmic Reticulum Network Maintenance in a Plant Cell.

PubMed

Lin, Congping; White, Rhiannon R; Sparkes, Imogen; Ashwin, Peter

2017-07-11

The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) in plant cells forms a highly dynamic network of complex geometry. ER network morphology and dynamics are influenced by a number of biophysical processes, including filament/tubule tension, viscous forces, Brownian diffusion, and interactions with many other organelles and cytoskeletal elements. Previous studies have indicated that ER networks can be thought of as constrained minimal-length networks acted on by a variety of forces that perturb and/or remodel the network. Here, we study two specific biophysical processes involved in remodeling. One is the dynamic relaxation process involving a combination of tubule tension and viscous forces. The other is the rapid creation of cross-connection tubules by direct or indirect interactions with cytoskeletal elements. These processes are able to remodel the ER network: the first reduces network length and complexity whereas the second increases both. Using live cell imaging of ER network dynamics in tobacco leaf epidermal cells, we examine these processes on ER network dynamics. Away from regions of cytoplasmic streaming, we suggest that the dynamic network structure is a balance between the two processes, and we build an integrative model of the two processes for network remodeling. This model produces quantitatively similar ER networks to those observed in experiments. We use the model to explore the effect of parameter variation on statistical properties of the ER network. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Differential Equation Models for Sharp Threshold Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

dynamics, and the Lanchester model of armed conflict, where the loss of a key capability drastically changes dynamics. We derive and demonstrate a step...dynamics using differential equations. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Differential Equations, Markov Population Process, S-I-R Epidemic, Lanchester Model 16...infection, where a detection event drastically changes dynamics, and the Lanchester model of armed conflict, where the loss of a key capability

Intelligent classifier for dynamic fault patterns based on hidden Markov model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Bo; Feng, Yuguang; Yu, Jinsong

2006-11-01

It's difficult to build precise mathematical models for complex engineering systems because of the complexity of the structure and dynamics characteristics. Intelligent fault diagnosis introduces artificial intelligence and works in a different way without building the analytical mathematical model of a diagnostic object, so it's a practical approach to solve diagnostic problems of complex systems. This paper presents an intelligent fault diagnosis method, an integrated fault-pattern classifier based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM). This classifier consists of dynamic time warping (DTW) algorithm, self-organizing feature mapping (SOFM) network and Hidden Markov Model. First, after dynamic observation vector in measuring space is processed by DTW, the error vector including the fault feature of being tested system is obtained. Then a SOFM network is used as a feature extractor and vector quantization processor. Finally, fault diagnosis is realized by fault patterns classifying with the Hidden Markov Model classifier. The importing of dynamic time warping solves the problem of feature extracting from dynamic process vectors of complex system such as aeroengine, and makes it come true to diagnose complex system by utilizing dynamic process information. Simulating experiments show that the diagnosis model is easy to extend, and the fault pattern classifier is efficient and is convenient to the detecting and diagnosing of new faults.

Improved global simulation of groundwater-ecosystem interactions via tight coupling of a dynamic global ecosystem model and a global hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braakhekke, Maarten; Rebel, Karin; Dekker, Stefan; Smith, Benjamin; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; van Kampenhout, Leo; Wassen, Martin

2017-04-01

In up to 30% of the global land surface ecosystems are potentially influenced by the presence of a shallow groundwater table. In these regions upward water flux by capillary rise increases soil moisture availability in the root zone, which has a strong effect on evapotranspiration, vegetation dynamics, and fluxes of carbon and nitrogen. Most global hydrological models and several land surface models simulate groundwater table dynamics and their effects on land surface processes. However, these models typically have relatively simplistic representation of vegetation and do not consider changes in vegetation type and structure. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), describe land surface from an ecological perspective, combining detailed description of vegetation dynamics and structure, and biogeochemical processes and are thus more appropriate to simulate the ecological and biogeochemical effects of groundwater interactions. However, currently virtually all DGVMs ignore these effects, assuming that water tables are too deep to affect soil moisture in the root zone. We have implemented a tight coupling between the dynamic global ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS and the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which explicitly simulates groundwater dynamics. This coupled model allows us to explicitly account for groundwater effects on terrestrial ecosystem processes at global scale. Results of global simulations indicate that groundwater strongly influences fluxes of water, carbon and nitrogen, in many regions, adding up to a considerable effect at the global scale.

A dynamic model of functioning of a bank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malafeyev, Oleg; Awasthi, Achal; Zaitseva, Irina; Rezenkov, Denis; Bogdanova, Svetlana

2018-04-01

In this paper, we analyze dynamic programming as a novel approach to solve the problem of maximizing the profits of a bank. The mathematical model of the problem and the description of bank's work is described in this paper. The problem is then approached using the method of dynamic programming. Dynamic programming makes sure that the solutions obtained are globally optimal and numerically stable. The optimization process is set up as a discrete multi-stage decision process and solved with the help of dynamic programming.

Nonlinear modeling and dynamic analysis of a hydro-turbine governing system in the process of sudden load increase transient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Huanhuan; Chen, Diyi; Zhang, Hao; Wang, Feifei; Ba, Duoduo

2016-12-01

In order to study the nonlinear dynamic behaviors of a hydro-turbine governing system in the process of sudden load increase transient, we establish a novel nonlinear dynamic model of the hydro-turbine governing system which considers the elastic water-hammer model of the penstock and the second-order model of the generator. The six nonlinear dynamic transfer coefficients of the hydro-turbine are innovatively proposed by utilizing internal characteristics and analyzing the change laws of the characteristic parameters of the hydro-turbine governing system. Moreover, from the point of view of engineering, the nonlinear dynamic behaviors of the above system are exhaustively investigated based on bifurcation diagrams and time waveforms. More importantly, all of the above analyses supply theoretical basis for allowing a hydropower station to maintain a stable operation in the process of sudden load increase transient.

Dual-Schemata Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taniguchi, Tadahiro; Sawaragi, Tetsuo

In this paper, a new machine-learning method, called Dual-Schemata model, is presented. Dual-Schemata model is a kind of self-organizational machine learning methods for an autonomous robot interacting with an unknown dynamical environment. This is based on Piaget's Schema model, that is a classical psychological model to explain memory and cognitive development of human beings. Our Dual-Schemata model is developed as a computational model of Piaget's Schema model, especially focusing on sensori-motor developing period. This developmental process is characterized by a couple of two mutually-interacting dynamics; one is a dynamics formed by assimilation and accommodation, and the other dynamics is formed by equilibration and differentiation. By these dynamics schema system enables an agent to act well in a real world. This schema's differentiation process corresponds to a symbol formation process occurring within an autonomous agent when it interacts with an unknown, dynamically changing environment. Experiment results obtained from an autonomous facial robot in which our model is embedded are presented; an autonomous facial robot becomes able to chase a ball moving in various ways without any rewards nor teaching signals from outside. Moreover, emergence of concepts on the target movements within a robot is shown and discussed in terms of fuzzy logics on set-subset inclusive relationships.

Molecular dynamics of conformational substates for a simplified protein model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grubmüller, Helmut; Tavan, Paul

1994-09-01

Extended molecular dynamics simulations covering a total of 0.232 μs have been carried out on a simplified protein model. Despite its simplified structure, that model exhibits properties similar to those of more realistic protein models. In particular, the model was found to undergo transitions between conformational substates at a time scale of several hundred picoseconds. The computed trajectories turned out to be sufficiently long as to permit a statistical analysis of that conformational dynamics. To check whether effective descriptions neglecting memory effects can reproduce the observed conformational dynamics, two stochastic models were studied. A one-dimensional Langevin effective potential model derived by elimination of subpicosecond dynamical processes could not describe the observed conformational transition rates. In contrast, a simple Markov model describing the transitions between but neglecting dynamical processes within conformational substates reproduced the observed distribution of first passage times. These findings suggest, that protein dynamics generally does not exhibit memory effects at time scales above a few hundred picoseconds, but confirms the existence of memory effects at a picosecond time scale.

Modeling Common-Sense Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zak, Michail

This paper presents a methodology for efficient synthesis of dynamical model simulating a common-sense decision making process. The approach is based upon the extension of the physics' First Principles that includes behavior of living systems. The new architecture consists of motor dynamics simulating actual behavior of the object, and mental dynamics representing evolution of the corresponding knowledge-base and incorporating it in the form of information flows into the motor dynamics. The autonomy of the decision making process is achieved by a feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by an internal knowledgebase stored in the mental model in the form of probability distributions.

Analysis and Modeling of Ground Operations at Hub Airports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atkins, Stephen (Technical Monitor); Andersson, Kari; Carr, Francis; Feron, Eric; Hall, William D.

2000-01-01

Building simple and accurate models of hub airports can considerably help one understand airport dynamics, and may provide quantitative estimates of operational airport improvements. In this paper, three models are proposed to capture the dynamics of busy hub airport operations. Two simple queuing models are introduced to capture the taxi-out and taxi-in processes. An integer programming model aimed at representing airline decision-making attempts to capture the dynamics of the aircraft turnaround process. These models can be applied for predictive purposes. They may also be used to evaluate control strategies for improving overall airport efficiency.

Optimal post-experiment estimation of poorly modeled dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mook, D. Joseph

1988-01-01

Recently, a novel strategy for post-experiment state estimation of discretely-measured dynamic systems has been developed. The method accounts for errors in the system dynamic model equations in a more general and rigorous manner than do filter-smoother algorithms. The dynamic model error terms do not require the usual process noise assumptions of zero-mean, symmetrically distributed random disturbances. Instead, the model error terms require no prior assumptions other than piecewise continuity. The resulting state estimates are more accurate than filters for applications in which the dynamic model error clearly violates the typical process noise assumptions, and the available measurements are sparse and/or noisy. Estimates of the dynamic model error, in addition to the states, are obtained as part of the solution of a two-point boundary value problem, and may be exploited for numerous reasons. In this paper, the basic technique is explained, and several example applications are given. Included among the examples are both state estimation and exploitation of the model error estimates.

A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever.

PubMed

Leedale, Joseph; Jones, Anne E; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P

2016-03-31

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

Dynamic graph of an oxy-fuel combustion system using autocatalytic set model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harish, Noor Ainy; Bakar, Sumarni Abu

2017-08-01

Evaporation process is one of the main processes besides combustion process in an oxy-combustion boiler system. An Autocatalytic Set (ASC) Model has successfully applied in developing graphical representation of the chemical reactions that occurs in the evaporation process in the system. Seventeen variables identified in the process are represented as nodes and the catalytic relationships are represented as edges in the graph. In addition, in this paper graph dynamics of ACS is further investigated. By using Dynamic Autocatalytic Set Graph Algorithm (DAGA), the adjacency matrix for each of the graphs and its relations to Perron-Frobenius Theorem is investigated. The dynamic graph obtained is further investigated where the connection of the graph to fuzzy graph Type 1 is established.

User's guide to the western spruce budworm modeling system

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston; J. J. Colbert; Paul W. Thomas; Katharine A. Sheehan; William P. Kemp

1990-01-01

The Budworm Modeling System is a set of four computer programs: The Budworm Dynamics Model, the Prognosis-Budworm Dynamics Model, the Prognosis-Budworm Damage Model, and the Parallel Processing-Budworm Dynamics Model. Input to the first three programs and the output produced are described in this guide. A guide to the fourth program will be published separately....

Adaptive optimal input design and parametric estimation of nonlinear dynamical systems: application to neuronal modeling.

PubMed

Madi, Mahmoud K; Karameh, Fadi N

2018-05-11

Many physical models of biological processes including neural systems are characterized by parametric nonlinear dynamical relations between driving inputs, internal states, and measured outputs of the process. Fitting such models using experimental data (data assimilation) is a challenging task since the physical process often operates in a noisy, possibly non-stationary environment; moreover, conducting multiple experiments under controlled and repeatable conditions can be impractical, time consuming or costly. The accuracy of model identification, therefore, is dictated principally by the quality and dynamic richness of collected data over single or few experimental sessions. Accordingly, it is highly desirable to design efficient experiments that, by exciting the physical process with smart inputs, yields fast convergence and increased accuracy of the model. We herein introduce an adaptive framework in which optimal input design is integrated with Square root Cubature Kalman Filters (OID-SCKF) to develop an online estimation procedure that first, converges significantly quicker, thereby permitting model fitting over shorter time windows, and second, enhances model accuracy when only few process outputs are accessible. The methodology is demonstrated on common nonlinear models and on a four-area neural mass model with noisy and limited measurements. Estimation quality (speed and accuracy) is benchmarked against high-performance SCKF-based methods that commonly employ dynamically rich informed inputs for accurate model identification. For all the tested models, simulated single-trial and ensemble averages showed that OID-SCKF exhibited (i) faster convergence of parameter estimates and (ii) lower dependence on inter-trial noise variability with gains up to around 1000 msec in speed and 81% increase in variability for the neural mass models. In terms of accuracy, OID-SCKF estimation was superior, and exhibited considerably less variability across experiments, in identifying model parameters of (a) systems with challenging model inversion dynamics and (b) systems with fewer measurable outputs that directly relate to the underlying processes. Fast and accurate identification therefore carries particular promise for modeling of transient (short-lived) neuronal network dynamics using a spatially under-sampled set of noisy measurements, as is commonly encountered in neural engineering applications. © 2018 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Dynamic Processes of Conceptual Change: Analysis of Constructing Mental Models of Chemical Equilibrium.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chiu, Mei-Hung; Chou, Chin-Cheng; Liu, Chia-Ju

2002-01-01

Investigates students' mental models of chemical equilibrium using dynamic science assessments. Reports that students at various levels have misconceptions about chemical equilibrium. Involves 10th grade students (n=30) in the study doing a series of hands-on chemical experiments. Focuses on the process of constructing mental models, dynamic…

Modeling the Dynamics of Soil Structure and Water in Agricultural Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, U.; Lang, B.; Rabot, E.; Stössel, B.; Urbanski, L.; Vogel, H. J.; Wiesmeier, M.; Wollschlaeger, U.

2017-12-01

The impact of agricultural management on soil functions is manifold and severe. It has both positive and adverse influence. Our goal is to develop model tools quantifying the agricultural impact on soil functions based on a mechanistic understanding of soil processes to support farmers and decision makers. The modeling approach is based on defining relevant soil components, i.e. soil matrix, macropores, organisms, roots and organic matter. They interact and form the soil's macroscopic properties and functions including water and gas dynamics, and biochemical cycles. Based on existing literature information we derive functional interaction processes and combine them in a network of dynamic soil components. In agricultural soils, a major issue is linked to changes in soil structure and their influence on water dynamics. Compaction processes are well studied in literature, but for the resilience due to root growth and activity of soil organisms the information is scarcer. We implement structural dynamics into soil water and gas simulations using a lumped model that is both coarse enough to allow extensive model runs while still preserving some important, yet rarely modeled phenomenons like preferential flow, hysteretic and dynamic behavior. For simulating water dynamics, at each depth, the model assumes water at different binding energies depending on soil structure, i.e. the pore size distribution. Non-equilibrium is postulated, meaning that free water may occur even if the soil is not fully saturated. All energy levels are interconnected allowing water to move, both within a spatial node, and between neighboring nodes (adding gravity). Structure dynamics alters the capacity of this water compartments, and the conductance of its connections. Connections are switched on and off depending on whether their sources contain water or their targets have free capacity. This leads to piecewise linear system behavior that allows fast calculation for extended time steps. Based on this concept, the dynamics of soil structure can be directly linked to soil water dynamics as a main driver for other soil processes. Further steps will include integration of temperature and solute leaching as well as defining the feedback of the water regime on the structure forming processes.

Multi-scale modeling for the transmission of influenza and the evaluation of interventions toward it.

PubMed

Guo, Dongmin; Li, King C; Peters, Timothy R; Snively, Beverly M; Poehling, Katherine A; Zhou, Xiaobo

2015-03-11

Mathematical modeling of influenza epidemic is important for analyzing the main cause of the epidemic and finding effective interventions towards it. The epidemic is a dynamic process. In this process, daily infections are caused by people's contacts, and the frequency of contacts can be mainly influenced by their cognition to the disease. The cognition is in turn influenced by daily illness attack rate, climate, and other environment factors. Few existing methods considered the dynamic process in their models. Therefore, their prediction results can hardly be explained by the mechanisms of epidemic spreading. In this paper, we developed a heterogeneous graph modeling approach (HGM) to describe the dynamic process of influenza virus transmission by taking advantage of our unique clinical data. We built social network of studied region and embedded an Agent-Based Model (ABM) in the HGM to describe the dynamic change of an epidemic. Our simulations have a good agreement with clinical data. Parameter sensitivity analysis showed that temperature influences the dynamic of epidemic significantly and system behavior analysis showed social network degree is a critical factor determining the size of an epidemic. Finally, multiple scenarios for vaccination and school closure strategies were simulated and their performance was analyzed.

Towards A Synthesis Of Land Dynamics And Hydrological Processes Across Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolik, I. N.; Tatarskii, V.; Shiklomanov, A. I.; Henebry, G. M.; de Beurs, K.; Laruelle, M.

2016-12-01

We present results from an ongoing project that aims to synthesize land dynamics, hydrological processes, and socio-economic changes across the five countries of Central Asia. We have developed a fully coupled model that takes into account the reconstructed land cover and land use dynamics to simulate dust emissions. A comparable model has been developed to model smoke emissions from wildfires. Both models incorporate land dynamics explicitly. We also present a characterization of land surface change based on a suite of MODIS products including vegetation indices, evapotranspiration, land surface temperature, and albedo. These results are connected with ongoing land privatization reforms that different across the region. We also present a regional analysis of water resources, including the significant impact of using surface water for irrigation in an arid landscape. We applied the University of New Hampshire hydrological model to understand the consequences of changes in climate, water, and land use on regional hydrological processes and water use. Water security and its dynamic have been estimated through an analysis of multiple indices and variables characterizing the water availability and water use. The economic consequences of the water privatization processes will be presented.

Preparatory steps for a robust dynamic model for organically bound tritium dynamics in agricultural crops

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melintescu, A.; Galeriu, D.; Diabate, S.

2015-03-15

The processes involved in tritium transfer in crops are complex and regulated by many feedback mechanisms. A full mechanistic model is difficult to develop due to the complexity of the processes involved in tritium transfer and environmental conditions. First, a review of existing models (ORYZA2000, CROPTRIT and WOFOST) presenting their features and limits, is made. Secondly, the preparatory steps for a robust model are discussed, considering the role of dry matter and photosynthesis contribution to the OBT (Organically Bound Tritium) dynamics in crops.

Improving predictions of large scale soil carbon dynamics: Integration of fine-scale hydrological and biogeochemical processes, scaling, and benchmarking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Dwivedi, D.; Ghimire, B.; Hoffman, F. M.; Pau, G. S. H.; Randerson, J. T.; Shen, C.; Tang, J.; Zhu, Q.

2015-12-01

Numerical model representations of decadal- to centennial-scale soil-carbon dynamics are a dominant cause of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Recent attempts by some Earth System Model (ESM) teams to integrate previously unrepresented soil processes (e.g., explicit microbial processes, abiotic interactions with mineral surfaces, vertical transport), poor performance of many ESM land models against large-scale and experimental manipulation observations, and complexities associated with spatial heterogeneity highlight the nascent nature of our community's ability to accurately predict future soil carbon dynamics. I will present recent work from our group to develop a modeling framework to integrate pore-, column-, watershed-, and global-scale soil process representations into an ESM (ACME), and apply the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for evaluation. At the column scale and across a wide range of sites, observed depth-resolved carbon stocks and their 14C derived turnover times can be explained by a model with explicit representation of two microbial populations, a simple representation of mineralogy, and vertical transport. Integrating soil and plant dynamics requires a 'process-scaling' approach, since all aspects of the multi-nutrient system cannot be explicitly resolved at ESM scales. I will show that one approach, the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation, improves predictions of forest nitrogen and phosphorus experimental manipulations and leads to very different global soil carbon predictions. Translating model representations from the site- to ESM-scale requires a spatial scaling approach that either explicitly resolves the relevant processes, or more practically, accounts for fine-resolution dynamics at coarser scales. To that end, I will present recent watershed-scale modeling work that applies reduced order model methods to accurately scale fine-resolution soil carbon dynamics to coarse-resolution simulations. Finally, we contend that creating believable soil carbon predictions requires a robust, transparent, and community-available benchmarking framework. I will present an ILAMB evaluation of several of the above-mentioned approaches in ACME, and attempt to motivate community adoption of this evaluation approach.

Ecosystem Restoration: Fact or Fancy?

Treesearch

John A. Stanturf; Callie J. Schweitzer; Stephen H. Schoenholtz; James P. Barnett; Charles K. McMahon; Donald J. Tomszak

1998-01-01

Ecological restoration is generally accepted as the reestablishment of natural ecological processes that produce certain dynamic ecosystem properties of structure, function, and processes. But restore to what? The most frequently used conceptual model for the restoration process is the shift of conditions from some current (degraded) dynamic state to some past dynamic...

The Living Cell as a Multi-agent Organisation: A Compositional Organisation Model of Intracellular Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonker, C. M.; Snoep, J. L.; Treur, J.; Westerhoff, H. V.; Wijngaards, W. C. A.

Within the areas of Computational Organisation Theory and Artificial Intelligence, techniques have been developed to simulate and analyse dynamics within organisations in society. Usually these modelling techniques are applied to factories and to the internal organisation of their process flows, thus obtaining models of complex organisations at various levels of aggregation. The dynamics in living cells are often interpreted in terms of well-organised processes, a bacterium being considered a (micro)factory. This suggests that organisation modelling techniques may also benefit their analysis. Using the example of Escherichia coli it is shown how indeed agent-based organisational modelling techniques can be used to simulate and analyse E.coli's intracellular dynamics. Exploiting the abstraction levels entailed by this perspective, a concise model is obtained that is readily simulated and analysed at the various levels of aggregation, yet shows the cell's essential dynamic patterns.

Informations in Models of Evolutionary Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivoire, Olivier

2016-03-01

Biological organisms adapt to changes by processing informations from different sources, most notably from their ancestors and from their environment. We review an approach to quantify these informations by analyzing mathematical models of evolutionary dynamics and show how explicit results are obtained for a solvable subclass of these models. In several limits, the results coincide with those obtained in studies of information processing for communication, gambling or thermodynamics. In the most general case, however, information processing by biological populations shows unique features that motivate the analysis of specific models.

A Competency Model for Process Dynamics and Control and Its Use for Test Construction at University Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taskinen, Päivi H.; Steimel, Jochen; Gräfe, Linda; Engell, Sebastian; Frey, Andreas

2015-01-01

This study examined students' competencies in engineering education at the university level. First, we developed a competency model in one specific field of engineering: process dynamics and control. Then, the theoretical model was used as a frame to construct test items to measure students' competencies comprehensively. In the empirical…

Dynamic-landscape metapopulation models predict complex response of wildlife populations to climate and landscape change

Treesearch

Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2017-01-01

The increasing need to predict how climate change will impact wildlife species has exposed limitations in how well current approaches model important biological processes at scales at which those processes interact with climate. We used a comprehensive approach that combined recent advances in landscape and population modeling into dynamic-landscape metapopulation...

Dynamic Emulation Modelling (DEMo) of large physically-based environmental models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.

2012-12-01

In environmental modelling large, spatially-distributed, physically-based models are widely adopted to describe the dynamics of physical, social and economic processes. Such an accurate process characterization comes, however, to a price: the computational requirements of these models are considerably high and prevent their use in any problem requiring hundreds or thousands of model runs to be satisfactory solved. Typical examples include optimal planning and management, data assimilation, inverse modelling and sensitivity analysis. An effective approach to overcome this limitation is to perform a top-down reduction of the physically-based model by identifying a simplified, computationally efficient emulator, constructed from and then used in place of the original model in highly resource-demanding tasks. The underlying idea is that not all the process details in the original model are equally important and relevant to the dynamics of the outputs of interest for the type of problem considered. Emulation modelling has been successfully applied in many environmental applications, however most of the literature considers non-dynamic emulators (e.g. metamodels, response surfaces and surrogate models), where the original dynamical model is reduced to a static map between input and the output of interest. In this study we focus on Dynamic Emulation Modelling (DEMo), a methodological approach that preserves the dynamic nature of the original physically-based model, with consequent advantages in a wide variety of problem areas. In particular, we propose a new data-driven DEMo approach that combines the many advantages of data-driven modelling in representing complex, non-linear relationships, but preserves the state-space representation typical of process-based models, which is both particularly effective in some applications (e.g. optimal management and data assimilation) and facilitates the ex-post physical interpretation of the emulator structure, thus enhancing the credibility of the model to stakeholders and decision-makers. Numerical results from the application of the approach to the reduction of 3D coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models in several real world case studies, including Marina Reservoir (Singapore) and Googong Reservoir (Australia), are illustrated.

Root structural and functional dynamics in terrestrial biosphere models--evaluation and recommendations.

PubMed

Warren, Jeffrey M; Hanson, Paul J; Iversen, Colleen M; Kumar, Jitendra; Walker, Anthony P; Wullschleger, Stan D

2015-01-01

There is wide breadth of root function within ecosystems that should be considered when modeling the terrestrial biosphere. Root structure and function are closely associated with control of plant water and nutrient uptake from the soil, plant carbon (C) assimilation, partitioning and release to the soils, and control of biogeochemical cycles through interactions within the rhizosphere. Root function is extremely dynamic and dependent on internal plant signals, root traits and morphology, and the physical, chemical and biotic soil environment. While plant roots have significant structural and functional plasticity to changing environmental conditions, their dynamics are noticeably absent from the land component of process-based Earth system models used to simulate global biogeochemical cycling. Their dynamic representation in large-scale models should improve model veracity. Here, we describe current root inclusion in models across scales, ranging from mechanistic processes of single roots to parameterized root processes operating at the landscape scale. With this foundation we discuss how existing and future root functional knowledge, new data compilation efforts, and novel modeling platforms can be leveraged to enhance root functionality in large-scale terrestrial biosphere models by improving parameterization within models, and introducing new components such as dynamic root distribution and root functional traits linked to resource extraction. No claim to original US Government works. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

The application of system dynamics modelling to environmental health decision-making and policy - a scoping review.

PubMed

Currie, Danielle J; Smith, Carl; Jagals, Paul

2018-03-27

Policy and decision-making processes are routinely challenged by the complex and dynamic nature of environmental health problems. System dynamics modelling has demonstrated considerable value across a number of different fields to help decision-makers understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of complex systems in support the development of effective policy actions. In this scoping review we investigate if, and in what contexts, system dynamics modelling is being used to inform policy or decision-making processes related to environmental health. Four electronic databases and the grey literature were systematically searched to identify studies that intersect the areas environmental health, system dynamics modelling, and decision-making. Studies identified in the initial screening were further screened for their contextual, methodological and application-related relevancy. Studies deemed 'relevant' or 'highly relevant' according to all three criteria were included in this review. Key themes related to the rationale, impact and limitation of using system dynamics in the context of environmental health decision-making and policy were analysed. We identified a limited number of relevant studies (n = 15), two-thirds of which were conducted between 2011 and 2016. The majority of applications occurred in non-health related sectors (n = 9) including transportation, public utilities, water, housing, food, agriculture, and urban and regional planning. Applications were primarily targeted at micro-level (local, community or grassroots) decision-making processes (n = 9), with macro-level (national or international) decision-making to a lesser degree. There was significant heterogeneity in the stated rationales for using system dynamics and the intended impact of the system dynamics model on decision-making processes. A series of user-related, technical and application-related limitations and challenges were identified. None of the reported limitations or challenges appeared unique to the application of system dynamics within the context of environmental health problems, but rather to the use of system dynamics in general. This review reveals that while system dynamics modelling is increasingly being used to inform decision-making related to environmental health, applications are currently limited. Greater application of system dynamics within this context is needed before its benefits and limitations can be fully understood.

Unraveling the sub-processes of selective attention: insights from dynamic modeling and continuous behavior.

PubMed

Frisch, Simon; Dshemuchadse, Maja; Görner, Max; Goschke, Thomas; Scherbaum, Stefan

2015-11-01

Selective attention biases information processing toward stimuli that are relevant for achieving our goals. However, the nature of this bias is under debate: Does it solely rely on the amplification of goal-relevant information or is there a need for additional inhibitory processes that selectively suppress currently distracting information? Here, we explored the processes underlying selective attention with a dynamic, modeling-based approach that focuses on the continuous evolution of behavior over time. We present two dynamic neural field models incorporating the diverging theoretical assumptions. Simulations with both models showed that they make similar predictions with regard to response times but differ markedly with regard to their continuous behavior. Human data observed via mouse tracking as a continuous measure of performance revealed evidence for the model solely based on amplification but no indication of persisting selective distracter inhibition.

A Multi-Scale, Integrated Approach to Representing Watershed Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Valeriy; Kim, Jongho; Fatichi, Simone; Katopodes, Nikolaos

2014-05-01

Understanding and predicting process dynamics across a range of scales are fundamental challenges for basic hydrologic research and practical applications. This is particularly true when larger-spatial-scale processes, such as surface-subsurface flow and precipitation, need to be translated to fine space-time scale dynamics of processes, such as channel hydraulics and sediment transport, that are often of primary interest. Inferring characteristics of fine-scale processes from uncertain coarse-scale climate projection information poses additional challenges. We have developed an integrated model simulating hydrological processes, flow dynamics, erosion, and sediment transport, tRIBS+VEGGIE-FEaST. The model targets to take the advantage of the current generation of wealth of data representing watershed topography, vegetation, soil, and landuse, as well as to explore the hydrological effects of physical factors and their feedback mechanisms over a range of scales. We illustrate how the modeling system connects precipitation-hydrologic runoff partition process to the dynamics of flow, erosion, and sedimentation, and how the soil's substrate condition can impact the latter processes, resulting in a non-unique response. We further illustrate an approach to using downscaled climate change information with a process-based model to infer the moments of hydrologic variables in future climate conditions and explore the impact of climate information uncertainty.

Future Carbon Dynamics of the Northern Rockies Ecoregion due to Climate Impacts and Fire Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, U.; Lang, B.; Rabot, E.; Stössel, B.; Urbanski, L.; Vogel, H. J.; Wiesmeier, M.; Wollschlaeger, U.

2016-12-01

The impact of agricultural management on soil functions is manifold and severe. It has both positive and adverse influence. Our goal is to develop model tools quantifying the agricultural impact on soil functions based on a mechanistic understanding of soil processes to support farmers and decision makers. The modeling approach is based on defining relevant soil components, i.e. soil matrix, macropores, organisms, roots and organic matter. They interact and form the soil's macroscopic properties and functions including water and gas dynamics, and biochemical cycles. Based on existing literature information we derive functional interaction processes and combine them in a network of dynamic soil components. In agricultural soils, a major issue is linked to changes in soil structure and their influence on water dynamics. Compaction processes are well studied in literature, but for the resilience due to root growth and activity of soil organisms the information is scarcer. We implement structural dynamics into soil water and gas simulations using a lumped model that is both coarse enough to allow extensive model runs while still preserving some important, yet rarely modeled phenomenons like preferential flow, hysteretic and dynamic behavior. For simulating water dynamics, at each depth, the model assumes water at different binding energies depending on soil structure, i.e. the pore size distribution. Non-equilibrium is postulated, meaning that free water may occur even if the soil is not fully saturated. All energy levels are interconnected allowing water to move, both within a spatial node, and between neighboring nodes (adding gravity). Structure dynamics alters the capacity of this water compartments, and the conductance of its connections. Connections are switched on and off depending on whether their sources contain water or their targets have free capacity. This leads to piecewise linear system behavior that allows fast calculation for extended time steps. Based on this concept, the dynamics of soil structure can be directly linked to soil water dynamics as a main driver for other soil processes. Further steps will include integration of temperature and solute leaching as well as defining the feedback of the water regime on the structure forming processes.

Regulation-Structured Dynamic Metabolic Model Provides a Potential Mechanism for Delayed Enzyme Response in Denitrification Process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Song, Hyun-Seob; Thomas, Dennis G.; Stegen, James C.

In a recent study of denitrification dynamics in hyporheic zone sediments, we observed a significant time lag (up to several days) in enzymatic response to the changes in substrate concentration. To explore an underlying mechanism and understand the interactive dynamics between enzymes and nutrients, we developed a trait-based model that associates a community’s traits with functional enzymes, instead of typically used species guilds (or functional guilds). This enzyme-based formulation allows to collectively describe biogeochemical functions of microbial communities without directly parameterizing the dynamics of species guilds, therefore being scalable to complex communities. As a key component of modeling, we accountedmore » for microbial regulation occurring through transcriptional and translational processes, the dynamics of which was parameterized based on the temporal profiles of enzyme concentrations measured using a new signature peptide-based method. The simulation results using the resulting model showed several days of a time lag in enzymatic responses as observed in experiments. Further, the model showed that the delayed enzymatic reactions could be primarily controlled by transcriptional responses and that the dynamics of transcripts and enzymes are closely correlated. The developed model can serve as a useful tool for predicting biogeochemical processes in natural environments, either independently or through integration with hydrologic flow simulators.« less

Multiscale Modeling of Multiphase Fluid Flow

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

the disparate time and length scales involved in modeling fluid flow and heat transfer. Molecular dynamics simulations were carried out to provide a...fluid dynamics methods were used to investigate the heat transfer process in open-cell micro-foam with phase change material; enhancement of natural...Computational fluid dynamics, Heat transfer, Phase change material in Micro-foam, Molecular Dynamics, Multiphase flow, Multiscale modeling, Natural

Microworlds of the dynamic balanced scorecard for university (DBSC-UNI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawari, Nurul Nazihah; Tahar, Razman Mat

2015-12-01

This research focuses on the development of a Microworlds of the dynamic balanced scorecard for university in order to enhance the university strategic planning process. To develop the model, we integrated both the balanced scorecard method and the system dynamics modelling method. Contrasting the traditional university planning tools, the developed model addresses university management problems holistically and dynamically. It is found that using system dynamics modelling method, the cause-and-effect relationships among variables related to the four conventional balanced scorecard perspectives are better understand. The dynamic processes that give rise to performance differences between targeted and actual performances also could be better understood. So, it is expected that the quality of the decisions taken are improved because of being better informed. The developed Microworlds can be exploited by university management to design policies that can positively influence the future in the direction of desired goals, and will have minimal side effects. This paper integrates balanced scorecard and system dynamics modelling methods in analyzing university performance. Therefore, this paper demonstrates the effectiveness and strength of system dynamics modelling method in solving problem in strategic planning area particularly in higher education sector.

Identity in agent-based models : modeling dynamic multiscale social processes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ozik, J.; Sallach, D. L.; Macal, C. M.

Identity-related issues play central roles in many current events, including those involving factional politics, sectarianism, and tribal conflicts. Two popular models from the computational-social-science (CSS) literature - the Threat Anticipation Program and SharedID models - incorporate notions of identity (individual and collective) and processes of identity formation. A multiscale conceptual framework that extends some ideas presented in these models and draws other capabilities from the broader CSS literature is useful in modeling the formation of political identities. The dynamic, multiscale processes that constitute and transform social identities can be mapped to expressive structures of the framework

Attractor Dynamics and Semantic Neighborhood Density: Processing Is Slowed by Near Neighbors and Speeded by Distant Neighbors

PubMed Central

Mirman, Daniel; Magnuson, James S.

2008-01-01

The authors investigated semantic neighborhood density effects on visual word processing to examine the dynamics of activation and competition among semantic representations. Experiment 1 validated feature-based semantic representations as a basis for computing semantic neighborhood density and suggested that near and distant neighbors have opposite effects on word processing. Experiment 2 confirmed these results: Word processing was slower for dense near neighborhoods and faster for dense distant neighborhoods. Analysis of a computational model showed that attractor dynamics can produce this pattern of neighborhood effects. The authors argue for reconsideration of traditional models of neighborhood effects in terms of attractor dynamics, which allow both inhibitory and facilitative effects to emerge. PMID:18194055

The System Dynamics Model User Sustainability Explorer (SD-MUSE) user interface: a user-friendly tool for interpreting system dynamic models

EPA Science Inventory

Sustainability-based decision making is a challenging process that requires balancing trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental components. System Dynamic (SD) models can be useful tools to inform sustainability-based decision making because they provide a holistic co...

Capturing dynamic processes of change in GROW mutual help groups for mental health.

PubMed

Finn, Lizzie D; Bishop, Brian J; Sparrow, Neville

2009-12-01

The need for a model that can portray dynamic processes of change in mutual help groups for mental health (MHGMHs) is emphasized. A dynamic process model has the potential to capture a more comprehensive understanding of how MHGMHs may assist their members. An investigation into GROW, a mutual help organization for mental health, employed ethnographic, phenomenological and collaborative research methods. The study examined how GROW impacts on psychological well being. Study outcomes aligned with the social ecological paradigm (Maton in Understanding the self-help organization: frameworks and findings. Sage, Thousand Oaks 1994) indicating multifactorial processes of change at and across three levels of analysis: group level, GROW program/community level and individual level. Outcome themes related to life skills acquisition and a change in self-perception in terms of belonging within community and an increased sense of personal value. The GROW findings are used to assist development of a dynamic multi-dimensional process model to explain how MHGMHs may promote positive change.

Modeling Common-Sense Decisions in Artificial Intelligence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zak, Michail

2010-01-01

A methodology has been conceived for efficient synthesis of dynamical models that simulate common-sense decision- making processes. This methodology is intended to contribute to the design of artificial-intelligence systems that could imitate human common-sense decision making or assist humans in making correct decisions in unanticipated circumstances. This methodology is a product of continuing research on mathematical models of the behaviors of single- and multi-agent systems known in biology, economics, and sociology, ranging from a single-cell organism at one extreme to the whole of human society at the other extreme. Earlier results of this research were reported in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, the three most recent and relevant being Characteristics of Dynamics of Intelligent Systems (NPO -21037), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48; Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems (NPO-30634), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 72; and Complexity for Survival of Living Systems (NPO- 43302), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 33, No. 7 (July 2009), page 62. The methodology involves the concepts reported previously, albeit viewed from a different perspective. One of the main underlying ideas is to extend the application of physical first principles to the behaviors of living systems. Models of motor dynamics are used to simulate the observable behaviors of systems or objects of interest, and models of mental dynamics are used to represent the evolution of the corresponding knowledge bases. For a given system, the knowledge base is modeled in the form of probability distributions and the mental dynamics is represented by models of the evolution of the probability densities or, equivalently, models of flows of information. Autonomy is imparted to the decisionmaking process by feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by information stored in the internal knowledge base. Representation of the dynamical models in a parameterized form reduces the task of common-sense-based decision making to a solution of the following hetero-associated-memory problem: store a set of m predetermined stochastic processes given by their probability distributions in such a way that when presented with an unexpected change in the form of an input out of the set of M inputs, the coupled motormental dynamics converges to the corresponding one of the m pre-assigned stochastic process, and a sample of this process represents the decision.

Political dynamics determined by interactions between political leaders and voters.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernard, Michael Lewis; Bier, Asmeret; Backus, George A.

2010-03-01

The political dynamics associated with an election are typically a function of the interplay between political leaders and voters, as well as endogenous and exogenous factors that impact the perceptions and goals of the electorate. This paper describes an effort by Sandia National Laboratories to model the attitudes and behaviors of various political groups along with that population's primary influencers, such as government leaders. To accomplish this, Sandia National Laboratories is creating a hybrid system dynamics-cognitive model to simulate systems- and individual-level political dynamics in a hypothetical society. The model is based on well-established psychological theory, applied to both individualsmore » and groups within the modeled society. Confidence management processes are being incorporated into the model design process to increase the utility of the tool and assess its performance. This project will enhance understanding of how political dynamics are determined in democratic society.« less

Using system dynamics for collaborative design: a case study

PubMed Central

Elf, Marie; Putilova, Mariya; von Koch, Lena; Öhrn, Kerstin

2007-01-01

Background In order to facilitate the collaborative design, system dynamics (SD) with a group modelling approach was used in the early stages of planning a new stroke unit. During six workshops a SD model was created in a multiprofessional group. Aim To explore to which extent and how the use of system dynamics contributed to the collaborative design process. Method A case study was conducted using several data sources. Results SD supported a collaborative design, by facilitating an explicit description of stroke care process, a dialogue and a joint understanding. The construction of the model obliged the group to conceptualise the stroke care and experimentation with the model gave the opportunity to reflect on care. Conclusion SD facilitated the collaborative design process and should be integrated in the early stages of the design process as a quality improvement tool. PMID:17683519

Overlapping community detection based on link graph using distance dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lei; Zhang, Jing; Cai, Li-Jun

2018-01-01

The distance dynamics model was recently proposed to detect the disjoint community of a complex network. To identify the overlapping structure of a network using the distance dynamics model, an overlapping community detection algorithm, called L-Attractor, is proposed in this paper. The process of L-Attractor mainly consists of three phases. In the first phase, L-Attractor transforms the original graph to a link graph (a new edge graph) to assure that one node has multiple distances. In the second phase, using the improved distance dynamics model, a dynamic interaction process is introduced to simulate the distance dynamics (shrink or stretch). Through the dynamic interaction process, all distances converge, and the disjoint community structure of the link graph naturally manifests itself. In the third phase, a recovery method is designed to convert the disjoint community structure of the link graph to the overlapping community structure of the original graph. Extensive experiments are conducted on the LFR benchmark networks as well as real-world networks. Based on the results, our algorithm demonstrates higher accuracy and quality than other state-of-the-art algorithms.

Corruption dynamics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malafeyev, O. A.; Nemnyugin, S. A.; Rylow, D.; Kolpak, E. P.; Awasthi, Achal

2017-07-01

The corruption dynamics is analyzed by means of the lattice model which is similar to the three-dimensional Ising model. Agents placed at nodes of the corrupt network periodically choose to perfom or not to perform the act of corruption at gain or loss while making decisions based on the process history. The gain value and its dynamics are defined by means of the Markov stochastic process modelling with parameters established in accordance with the influence of external and individual factors on the agent's gain. The model is formulated algorithmically and is studied by means of the computer simulation. Numerical results are obtained which demonstrate asymptotic behaviour of the corruption network under various conditions.

Computational fluid dynamics modelling of hydraulics and sedimentation in process reactors during aeration tank settling.

PubMed

Jensen, M D; Ingildsen, P; Rasmussen, M R; Laursen, J

2006-01-01

Aeration tank settling is a control method allowing settling in the process tank during high hydraulic load. The control method is patented. Aeration tank settling has been applied in several waste water treatment plants using the present design of the process tanks. Some process tank designs have shown to be more effective than others. To improve the design of less effective plants, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling of hydraulics and sedimentation has been applied. This paper discusses the results at one particular plant experiencing problems with partly short-circuiting of the inlet and outlet causing a disruption of the sludge blanket at the outlet and thereby reducing the retention of sludge in the process tank. The model has allowed us to establish a clear picture of the problems arising at the plant during aeration tank settling. Secondly, several process tank design changes have been suggested and tested by means of computational fluid dynamics modelling. The most promising design changes have been found and reported.

On the derivation of a simple dynamic model of anaerobic digestion including the evolution of hydrogen.

PubMed

Giovannini, Giannina; Sbarciog, Mihaela; Steyer, Jean-Philippe; Chamy, Rolando; Vande Wouwer, Alain

2018-05-01

Hydrogen has been found to be an important intermediate during anaerobic digestion (AD) and a key variable for process monitoring as it gives valuable information about the stability of the reactor. However, simple dynamic models describing the evolution of hydrogen are not commonplace. In this work, such a dynamic model is derived using a systematic data driven-approach, which consists of a principal component analysis to deduce the dimension of the minimal reaction subspace explaining the data, followed by an identification of the kinetic parameters in the least-squares sense. The procedure requires the availability of informative data sets. When the available data does not fulfill this condition, the model can still be built from simulated data, obtained using a detailed model such as ADM1. This dynamic model could be exploited in monitoring and control applications after a re-identification of the parameters using actual process data. As an example, the model is used in the framework of a control strategy, and is also fitted to experimental data from raw industrial wine processing wastewater. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Thermodynamic Approach to Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Modeling: From Metabolic Biochemical Processes to Water-Carbon-Nitrogen Balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clavijo, H. W.

2016-12-01

Modeling the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum has been central part of understanding interrelationships among biogeochemical and hydrological processes. Theory behind of couplings Land Surface Models (LSM) and Dynamical Global Vegetation Models (DGVM) are based on physical and physiological processes connected by input-output interactions mainly. This modeling framework could be improved by the application of non-equilibrium thermodynamic basis that could encompass the majority of biophysical processes in a standard fashion. This study presents an alternative model for plant-water-atmosphere based on energy-mass thermodynamics. The system of dynamic equations derived is based on the total entropy, the total energy balance for the plant, the biomass dynamics at metabolic level and the water-carbon-nitrogen fluxes and balances. One advantage of this formulation is the capability to describe adaptation and evolution of dynamics of plant as a bio-system coupled to the environment. Second, it opens a window for applications on specific conditions from individual plant scale, to watershed scale, to global scale. Third, it enhances the possibility of analyzing anthropogenic impacts on the system, benefiting from the mathematical formulation and its non-linearity. This non-linear model formulation is analyzed under the concepts of qualitative system dynamics theory, for different state-space phase portraits. The attractors and sources are pointed out with its stability analysis. Possibility of bifurcations are explored and reported. Simulations for the system dynamics under different conditions are presented. These results show strong consistency and applicability that validates the use of the non-equilibrium thermodynamic theory.

A size-composition resolved aerosol model for simulating the dynamics of externally mixed particles: SCRAM (v 1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, S.; Sartelet, K. N.; Seigneur, C.

2015-06-01

The Size-Composition Resolved Aerosol Model (SCRAM) for simulating the dynamics of externally mixed atmospheric particles is presented. This new model classifies aerosols by both composition and size, based on a comprehensive combination of all chemical species and their mass-fraction sections. All three main processes involved in aerosol dynamics (coagulation, condensation/evaporation and nucleation) are included. The model is first validated by comparison with a reference solution and with results of simulations using internally mixed particles. The degree of mixing of particles is investigated in a box model simulation using data representative of air pollution in Greater Paris. The relative influence on the mixing state of the different aerosol processes (condensation/evaporation, coagulation) and of the algorithm used to model condensation/evaporation (bulk equilibrium, dynamic) is studied.

Interacting opinion and disease dynamics in multiplex networks: Discontinuous phase transition and nonmonotonic consensus times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velásquez-Rojas, Fátima; Vazquez, Federico

2017-05-01

Opinion formation and disease spreading are among the most studied dynamical processes on complex networks. In real societies, it is expected that these two processes depend on and affect each other. However, little is known about the effects of opinion dynamics over disease dynamics and vice versa, since most studies treat them separately. In this work we study the dynamics of the voter model for opinion formation intertwined with that of the contact process for disease spreading, in a population of agents that interact via two types of connections, social and contact. These two interacting dynamics take place on two layers of networks, coupled through a fraction q of links present in both networks. The probability that an agent updates its state depends on both the opinion and disease states of the interacting partner. We find that the opinion dynamics has striking consequences on the statistical properties of disease spreading. The most important is that the smooth (continuous) transition from a healthy to an endemic phase observed in the contact process, as the infection probability increases beyond a threshold, becomes abrupt (discontinuous) in the two-layer system. Therefore, disregarding the effects of social dynamics on epidemics propagation may lead to a misestimation of the real magnitude of the spreading. Also, an endemic-healthy discontinuous transition is found when the coupling q overcomes a threshold value. Furthermore, we show that the disease dynamics delays the opinion consensus, leading to a consensus time that varies nonmonotonically with q in a large range of the model's parameters. A mean-field approach reveals that the coupled dynamics of opinions and disease can be approximately described by the dynamics of the voter model decoupled from that of the contact process, with effective probabilities of opinion and disease transmission.

Testability of evolutionary game dynamics based on experimental economics data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yijia; Chen, Xiaojie; Wang, Zhijian

2017-11-01

Understanding the dynamic processes of a real game system requires an appropriate dynamics model, and rigorously testing a dynamics model is nontrivial. In our methodological research, we develop an approach to testing the validity of game dynamics models that considers the dynamic patterns of angular momentum and speed as measurement variables. Using Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS) games as an example, we illustrate the geometric patterns in the experiment data. We then derive the related theoretical patterns from a series of typical dynamics models. By testing the goodness-of-fit between the experimental and theoretical patterns, we show that the validity of these models can be evaluated quantitatively. Our approach establishes a link between dynamics models and experimental systems, which is, to the best of our knowledge, the most effective and rigorous strategy for ascertaining the testability of evolutionary game dynamics models.

The Socially Situated Dynamics of Children's Learning Processes in Classrooms: What Do We Learn from a Complex Dynamic Systems Approach?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steenbeek, Henderien; van Vondel, Sabine; van Geert, Paul

2017-01-01

This article concentrates on the question what kind of model--conceptual and statistical--can serve as a good working model for the study of learning and teaching processes qua processes. We claim that a good way of answering this question is to begin by observing a teaching and learning process as, where, and when it occurs. In addition, a…

Targeted quantification of functional enzyme dynamics in environmental samples for microbially mediated biogeochemical processes: Targeted quantification of functional enzyme dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Minjing; Gao, Yuqian; Qian, Wei-Jun

Microbially mediated biogeochemical processes are catalyzed by enzymes that control the transformation of carbon, nitrogen, and other elements in environment. The dynamic linkage between enzymes and biogeochemical species transformation has, however, rarely been investigated because of the lack of analytical approaches to efficiently and reliably quantify enzymes and their dynamics in soils and sediments. Herein, we developed a signature peptide-based technique for sensitively quantifying dissimilatory and assimilatory enzymes using nitrate-reducing enzymes in a hyporheic zone sediment as an example. Moreover, the measured changes in enzyme concentration were found to correlate with the nitrate reduction rate in a way different frommore » that inferred from biogeochemical models based on biomass or functional genes as surrogates for functional enzymes. This phenomenon has important implications for understanding and modeling the dynamics of microbial community functions and biogeochemical processes in environments. Our results also demonstrate the importance of enzyme quantification for the identification and interrogation of those biogeochemical processes with low metabolite concentrations as a result of faster enzyme-catalyzed consumption of metabolites than their production. The dynamic enzyme behaviors provide a basis for the development of enzyme-based models to describe the relationship between the microbial community and biogeochemical processes.« less

Near infrared spectroscopy based monitoring of extraction processes of raw material with the help of dynamic predictive modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Haixia; Suo, Tongchuan; Wu, Xiaolin; Zhang, Yue; Wang, Chunhua; Yu, Heshui; Li, Zheng

2018-03-01

The control of batch-to-batch quality variations remains a challenging task for pharmaceutical industries, e.g., traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) manufacturing. One difficult problem is to produce pharmaceutical products with consistent quality from raw material of large quality variations. In this paper, an integrated methodology combining the near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and dynamic predictive modeling is developed for the monitoring and control of the batch extraction process of licorice. With the spectra data in hand, the initial state of the process is firstly estimated with a state-space model to construct a process monitoring strategy for the early detection of variations induced by the initial process inputs such as raw materials. Secondly, the quality property of the end product is predicted at the mid-course during the extraction process with a partial least squares (PLS) model. The batch-end-time (BET) is then adjusted accordingly to minimize the quality variations. In conclusion, our study shows that with the help of the dynamic predictive modeling, NIRS can offer the past and future information of the process, which enables more accurate monitoring and control of process performance and product quality.

Modelling and simulation techniques for membrane biology.

PubMed

Burrage, Kevin; Hancock, John; Leier, André; Nicolau, Dan V

2007-07-01

One of the most important aspects of Computational Cell Biology is the understanding of the complicated dynamical processes that take place on plasma membranes. These processes are often so complicated that purely temporal models cannot always adequately capture the dynamics. On the other hand, spatial models can have large computational overheads. In this article, we review some of these issues with respect to chemistry, membrane microdomains and anomalous diffusion and discuss how to select appropriate modelling and simulation paradigms based on some or all the following aspects: discrete, continuous, stochastic, delayed and complex spatial processes.

A dynamic organic soil biogeochemical model for simulating the effects of wildfire on soil environmental conditions and carbon dynamics of black spruce forests

Treesearch

Shuhua Yi; A. David McGuire; Eric Kasischke; Jennifer Harden; Kristen Manies; Michelle Mack; Merritt Turetsky

2010-01-01

Ecosystem models have not comprehensively considered how interactions among fire disturbance, soil environmental conditions, and biogeochemical processes affect ecosystem dynamics in boreal forest ecosystems. In this study, we implemented a dynamic organic soil structure in the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (DOS-TEM) to investigate the effects of fire on soil temperature...

Research on a dynamic workflow access control model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yiliang; Deng, Jinxia

2007-12-01

In recent years, the access control technology has been researched widely in workflow system, two typical technologies of that are RBAC (Role-Based Access Control) and TBAC (Task-Based Access Control) model, which has been successfully used in the role authorizing and assigning in a certain extent. However, during the process of complicating a system's structure, these two types of technology can not be used in minimizing privileges and separating duties, and they are inapplicable when users have a request of frequently changing on the workflow's process. In order to avoid having these weakness during the applying, a variable flow dynamic role_task_view (briefly as DRTVBAC) of fine-grained access control model is constructed on the basis existed model. During the process of this model applying, an algorithm is constructed to solve users' requirements of application and security needs on fine-grained principle of privileges minimum and principle of dynamic separation of duties. The DRTVBAC model is implemented in the actual system, the figure shows that the task associated with the dynamic management of role and the role assignment is more flexible on authority and recovery, it can be met the principle of least privilege on the role implement of a specific task permission activated; separated the authority from the process of the duties completing in the workflow; prevented sensitive information discovering from concise and dynamic view interface; satisfied with the requirement of the variable task-flow frequently.

An evaluation of Dynamic TOPMODEL for low flow simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coxon, G.; Freer, J. E.; Quinn, N.; Woods, R. A.; Wagener, T.; Howden, N. J. K.

2015-12-01

Hydrological models are essential tools for drought risk management, often providing input to water resource system models, aiding our understanding of low flow processes within catchments and providing low flow predictions. However, simulating low flows and droughts is challenging as hydrological systems often demonstrate threshold effects in connectivity, non-linear groundwater contributions and a greater influence of water resource system elements during low flow periods. These dynamic processes are typically not well represented in commonly used hydrological models due to data and model limitations. Furthermore, calibrated or behavioural models may not be effectively evaluated during more extreme drought periods. A better understanding of the processes that occur during low flows and how these are represented within models is thus required if we want to be able to provide robust and reliable predictions of future drought events. In this study, we assess the performance of dynamic TOPMODEL for low flow simulation. Dynamic TOPMODEL was applied to a number of UK catchments in the Thames region using time series of observed rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data that captured multiple historic droughts over a period of several years. The model performance was assessed against the observed discharge time series using a limits of acceptability framework, which included uncertainty in the discharge time series. We evaluate the models against multiple signatures of catchment low-flow behaviour and investigate differences in model performance between catchments, model diagnostics and for different low flow periods. We also considered the impact of surface water and groundwater abstractions and discharges on the observed discharge time series and how this affected the model evaluation. From analysing the model performance, we suggest future improvements to Dynamic TOPMODEL to improve the representation of low flow processes within the model structure.

Multiscale analysis of information dynamics for linear multivariate processes.

PubMed

Faes, Luca; Montalto, Alessandro; Stramaglia, Sebastiano; Nollo, Giandomenico; Marinazzo, Daniele

2016-08-01

In the study of complex physical and physiological systems represented by multivariate time series, an issue of great interest is the description of the system dynamics over a range of different temporal scales. While information-theoretic approaches to the multiscale analysis of complex dynamics are being increasingly used, the theoretical properties of the applied measures are poorly understood. This study introduces for the first time a framework for the analytical computation of information dynamics for linear multivariate stochastic processes explored at different time scales. After showing that the multiscale processing of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process introduces a moving average (MA) component, we describe how to represent the resulting VARMA process using statespace (SS) models and how to exploit the SS model parameters to compute analytical measures of information storage and information transfer for the original and rescaled processes. The framework is then used to quantify multiscale information dynamics for simulated unidirectionally and bidirectionally coupled VAR processes, showing that rescaling may lead to insightful patterns of information storage and transfer but also to potentially misleading behaviors.

Hierarchical Heteroclinics in Dynamical Model of Cognitive Processes: Chunking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afraimovich, Valentin S.; Young, Todd R.; Rabinovich, Mikhail I.

Combining the results of brain imaging and nonlinear dynamics provides a new hierarchical vision of brain network functionality that is helpful in understanding the relationship of the network to different mental tasks. Using these ideas it is possible to build adequate models for the description and prediction of different cognitive activities in which the number of variables is usually small enough for analysis. The dynamical images of different mental processes depend on their temporal organization and, as a rule, cannot be just simple attractors since cognition is characterized by transient dynamics. The mathematical image for a robust transient is a stable heteroclinic channel consisting of a chain of saddles connected by unstable separatrices. We focus here on hierarchical chunking dynamics that can represent several cognitive activities. Chunking is the dynamical phenomenon that means dividing a long information chain into shorter items. Chunking is known to be important in many processes of perception, learning, memory and cognition. We prove that in the phase space of the model that describes chunking there exists a new mathematical object — heteroclinic sequence of heteroclinic cycles — using the technique of slow-fast approximations. This new object serves as a skeleton of motions reflecting sequential features of hierarchical chunking dynamics and is an adequate image of the chunking processing.

Computer-aided software development process design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Chi Y.; Levary, Reuven R.

1989-01-01

The authors describe an intelligent tool designed to aid managers of software development projects in planning, managing, and controlling the development process of medium- to large-scale software projects. Its purpose is to reduce uncertainties in the budget, personnel, and schedule planning of software development projects. It is based on dynamic model for the software development and maintenance life-cycle process. This dynamic process is composed of a number of time-varying, interacting developmental phases, each characterized by its intended functions and requirements. System dynamics is used as a modeling methodology. The resulting Software LIfe-Cycle Simulator (SLICS) and the hybrid expert simulation system of which it is a subsystem are described.

Research a Novel Integrated and Dynamic Multi-object Trade-Off Mechanism in Software Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Weijin; Xu, Yuhui

Aiming at practical requirements of present software project management and control, the paper presented to construct integrated multi-object trade-off model based on software project process management, so as to actualize integrated and dynamic trade-oil of the multi-object system of project. Based on analyzing basic principle of dynamic controlling and integrated multi-object trade-off system process, the paper integrated method of cybernetics and network technology, through monitoring on some critical reference points according to the control objects, emphatically discussed the integrated and dynamic multi- object trade-off model and corresponding rules and mechanism in order to realize integration of process management and trade-off of multi-object system.

Dynamic occupancy models for explicit colonization processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Broms, Kristin M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Altwegg, Res; Conquest, Loveday

2016-01-01

The dynamic, multi-season occupancy model framework has become a popular tool for modeling open populations with occupancies that change over time through local colonizations and extinctions. However, few versions of the model relate these probabilities to the occupancies of neighboring sites or patches. We present a modeling framework that incorporates this information and is capable of describing a wide variety of spatiotemporal colonization and extinction processes. A key feature of the model is that it is based on a simple set of small-scale rules describing how the process evolves. The result is a dynamic process that can account for complicated large-scale features. In our model, a site is more likely to be colonized if more of its neighbors were previously occupied and if it provides more appealing environmental characteristics than its neighboring sites. Additionally, a site without occupied neighbors may also become colonized through the inclusion of a long-distance dispersal process. Although similar model specifications have been developed for epidemiological applications, ours formally accounts for detectability using the well-known occupancy modeling framework. After demonstrating the viability and potential of this new form of dynamic occupancy model in a simulation study, we use it to obtain inference for the ongoing Common Myna (Acridotheres tristis) invasion in South Africa. Our results suggest that the Common Myna continues to enlarge its distribution and its spread via short distance movement, rather than long-distance dispersal. Overall, this new modeling framework provides a powerful tool for managers examining the drivers of colonization including short- vs. long-distance dispersal, habitat quality, and distance from source populations.

Linking Adverse Outcome Pathways to Dynamic Energy Budgets: A Conceptual Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murphy, Cheryl; Nisbet, Roger; Antczak, Philipp

Ecological risk assessment quantifies the likelihood of undesirable impacts of stressors, primarily at high levels of biological organization. Data used to inform ecological risk assessments come primarily from tests on individual organisms or from suborganismal studies, indicating a disconnect between primary data and protection goals. We know how to relate individual responses to population dynamics using individual-based models, and there are emerging ideas on how to make connections to ecosystem services. However, there is no established methodology to connect effects seen at higher levels of biological organization with suborganismal dynamics, despite progress made in identifying Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs) thatmore » link molecular initiating events to ecologically relevant key events. This chapter is a product of a working group at the National Center for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS) that assessed the feasibility of using dynamic energy budget (DEB) models of individual organisms as a “pivot” connecting suborganismal processes to higher level ecological processes. AOP models quantify explicit molecular, cellular or organ-level processes, but do not offer a route to linking sub-organismal damage to adverse effects on individual growth, reproduction, and survival, which can be propagated to the population level through individual-based models. DEB models describe these processes, but use abstract variables with undetermined connections to suborganismal biology. We propose linking DEB and quantitative AOP models by interpreting AOP key events as measures of damage-inducing processes in a DEB model. Here, we present a conceptual model for linking AOPs to DEB models and review existing modeling tools available for both AOP and DEB.« less

A Dynamic Causal Modeling Analysis of the Effective Connectivities Underlying Top-Down Letter Processing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Jiangang; Li, Jun; Rieth, Cory A.; Huber, David E.; Tian, Jie; Lee, Kang

2011-01-01

The present study employed dynamic causal modeling to investigate the effective functional connectivity between regions of the neural network involved in top-down letter processing. We used an illusory letter detection paradigm in which participants detected letters while viewing pure noise images. When participants detected letters, the response…

Role for syn-eruptive plagioclase disequilibrium crystallisation in basaltic magma ascent dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Spina, Giuseppe; Burton, Mike; de'Michieli Vitturi, Mattia; Arzilli, Fabio

2017-04-01

Magma ascent dynamics in volcanic conduits play a key role in determining the eruptive style of a volcano. The lack of direct observations inside the conduit means that numerical conduit models, constrained with observational data, provide invaluable tools for quantitative insights into complex magma ascent dynamics. The highly nonlinear, interdependent processes involved in magma ascent dynamics require several simplifications when modelling their ascent. For example, timescales of magma ascent in conduit models are typically assumed to be much longer than crystallisation and gas exsolution for basaltic eruptions. However, it is now recognized that basaltic magmas may rise fast enough for disequilibrium processes to play a key role on the ascent dynamics. The quantification of the characteristic times for crystallisation and exsolution processes are fundamental to our understanding of such disequilibria and ascent dynamics. Using observations from Mount Etna's 2001 eruption and a magma ascent model we are able to constrain timescales for crystallisation and exsolution processes. Our results show that plagioclase reaches equilibrium in 1-2 h, whereas ascent times were 1 h. Furthermore, we have related the amount of plagioclase in erupted products with the ascent dynamics of basaltic eruptions. We find that relatively high plagioclase content requires crystallisation in a shallow reservoir, whilst a low plagioclase content reflects a disequilibrium crystallisation occurring during a fast ascent from depth to the surface. Using these new constraints on disequilibrium plagioclase crystallisation we also reproduce observed crystal abundances for different basaltic eruptions: Etna 2002/2003, Stromboli 2007 (effusive eruption) and 1930 (paroxysm) and different Pu'u' O'o eruptions at Kilauea (episodes 49-53). Therefore, our results show that disequilibrium processes play a key role on the ascent dynamics of basaltic magmas and cannot be neglected when describing basaltic eruptions. Quantifying the characteristic times for crystallisation and exsolution represents a major step towards a more complete, realistic and general model of basaltic volcanism

A MODELING AND SIMULATION LANGUAGE FOR BIOLOGICAL CELLS WITH COUPLED MECHANICAL AND CHEMICAL PROCESSES

PubMed Central

Somogyi, Endre; Glazier, James A.

2017-01-01

Biological cells are the prototypical example of active matter. Cells sense and respond to mechanical, chemical and electrical environmental stimuli with a range of behaviors, including dynamic changes in morphology and mechanical properties, chemical uptake and secretion, cell differentiation, proliferation, death, and migration. Modeling and simulation of such dynamic phenomena poses a number of computational challenges. A modeling language describing cellular dynamics must naturally represent complex intra and extra-cellular spatial structures and coupled mechanical, chemical and electrical processes. Domain experts will find a modeling language most useful when it is based on concepts, terms and principles native to the problem domain. A compiler must then be able to generate an executable model from this physically motivated description. Finally, an executable model must efficiently calculate the time evolution of such dynamic and inhomogeneous phenomena. We present a spatial hybrid systems modeling language, compiler and mesh-free Lagrangian based simulation engine which will enable domain experts to define models using natural, biologically motivated constructs and to simulate time evolution of coupled cellular, mechanical and chemical processes acting on a time varying number of cells and their environment. PMID:29303160

A MODELING AND SIMULATION LANGUAGE FOR BIOLOGICAL CELLS WITH COUPLED MECHANICAL AND CHEMICAL PROCESSES.

PubMed

Somogyi, Endre; Glazier, James A

2017-04-01

Biological cells are the prototypical example of active matter. Cells sense and respond to mechanical, chemical and electrical environmental stimuli with a range of behaviors, including dynamic changes in morphology and mechanical properties, chemical uptake and secretion, cell differentiation, proliferation, death, and migration. Modeling and simulation of such dynamic phenomena poses a number of computational challenges. A modeling language describing cellular dynamics must naturally represent complex intra and extra-cellular spatial structures and coupled mechanical, chemical and electrical processes. Domain experts will find a modeling language most useful when it is based on concepts, terms and principles native to the problem domain. A compiler must then be able to generate an executable model from this physically motivated description. Finally, an executable model must efficiently calculate the time evolution of such dynamic and inhomogeneous phenomena. We present a spatial hybrid systems modeling language, compiler and mesh-free Lagrangian based simulation engine which will enable domain experts to define models using natural, biologically motivated constructs and to simulate time evolution of coupled cellular, mechanical and chemical processes acting on a time varying number of cells and their environment.

Lane-changing model with dynamic consideration of driver's propensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaoyuan; Wang, Jianqiang; Zhang, Jinglei; Ban, Xuegang Jeff

2015-07-01

Lane-changing is the driver's selection result of the satisfaction degree in different lane driving conditions. There are many different factors influencing lane-changing behavior, such as diversity, randomicity and difficulty of measurement. So it is hard to accurately reflect the uncertainty of drivers' lane-changing behavior. As a result, the research of lane-changing models is behind that of car-following models. Driver's propensity is her/his emotion state or the corresponding preference of a decision or action toward the real objective traffic situations under the influence of various dynamic factors. It represents the psychological characteristics of the driver in the process of vehicle operation and movement. It is an important factor to influence lane-changing. In this paper, dynamic recognition of driver's propensity is considered during simulation based on its time-varying discipline and the analysis of the driver's psycho-physic characteristics. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to quantify the hierarchy of driver's dynamic lane-changing decision-making process, especially the influence of the propensity. The model is validated using real data. Test results show that the developed lane-changing model with the dynamic consideration of a driver's time-varying propensity and the AHP method are feasible and with improved accuracy.

Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luo, Y.; Ahlström, Anders; Allison, Steven D.; Batjes, Niels H.; Brovkin, V.; Carvalhais, Nuno; Chappell, Adrian; Ciais, Philippe; Davidson, Eric A.; Finzi, Adien; Georgiou, Katerina; Guenet, Bertrand; Hararuk, Oleksandra; Harden, Jennifer; He, Yujie; Hopkins, Francesca; Jiang, L.; Koven, Charles; Jackson, Robert B.; Jones, Chris D.; Lara, M.; Liang, J.; McGuire, A. David; Parton, William; Peng, Changhui; Randerson, J.; Salazar, Alejandro; Sierra, Carlos A.; Smith, Matthew J.; Tian, Hanqin; Todd-Brown, Katherine E. O; Torn, Margaret S.; van Groenigen, Kees Jan; Wang, Ying; West, Tristram O.; Wei, Yaxing; Wieder, William R.; Xia, Jianyang; Xu, Xia; Xu, Xiaofeng; Zhou, T.

2016-01-01

Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs), and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the third to fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe the environmental conditions that soils experience. First, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by first-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Second, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool- and flux-based data sets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Third, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. We recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable data sets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and prescribe forcing fields.

Simulating the flow of entangled polymers.

PubMed

Masubuchi, Yuichi

2014-01-01

To optimize automation for polymer processing, attempts have been made to simulate the flow of entangled polymers. In industry, fluid dynamics simulations with phenomenological constitutive equations have been practically established. However, to account for molecular characteristics, a method to obtain the constitutive relationship from the molecular structure is required. Molecular dynamics simulations with atomic description are not practical for this purpose; accordingly, coarse-grained models with reduced degrees of freedom have been developed. Although the modeling of entanglement is still a challenge, mesoscopic models with a priori settings to reproduce entangled polymer dynamics, such as tube models, have achieved remarkable success. To use the mesoscopic models as staging posts between atomistic and fluid dynamics simulations, studies have been undertaken to establish links from the coarse-grained model to the atomistic and macroscopic simulations. Consequently, integrated simulations from materials chemistry to predict the macroscopic flow in polymer processing are forthcoming.

Dynamic Training Elements in a Circuit Theory Course to Implement a Self-Directed Learning Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krouk, B. I.; Zhuravleva, O. B.

2009-01-01

This paper reports on the implementation of a self-directed learning process in a circuit theory course, incorporating dynamic training elements which were designed on the basis of a cybernetic model of cognitive process management. These elements are centrally linked in a dynamic learning frame, created on the monitor screen, which displays the…

Proximity Networks and Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guclu, Hasan; Toroczkai, Zoltán

2007-03-01

We presented the basis of a framework to account for the dynamics of contacts in epidemic processes, through the notion of dynamic proximity graphs. By varying the integration time-parameter T, which is the period of infectivity one can give a simple account for some of the differences in the observed contact networks for different diseases, such as smallpox, or AIDS. Our simplistic model also seems to shed some light on the shape of the degree distribution of the measured people-people contact network from the EPISIM data. We certainly do not claim that the simplistic graph integration model above is a good model for dynamic contact graphs. It only contains the essential ingredients for such processes to produce a qualitative agreement with some observations. We expect that further refinements and extensions to this picture, in particular deriving the link-probabilities in the dynamic proximity graph from more realistic contact dynamics should improve the agreement between models and data.

Coupled Modeling of Rhizosphere and Reactive Transport Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roque-Malo, S.; Kumar, P.

2017-12-01

The rhizosphere, as a bio-diverse plant root-soil interface, hosts many hydrologic and biochemical processes, including nutrient cycling, hydraulic redistribution, and soil carbon dynamics among others. The biogeochemical function of root networks, including the facilitation of nutrient cycling through absorption and rhizodeposition, interaction with micro-organisms and fungi, contribution to biomass, etc., plays an important role in myriad Critical Zone processes. Despite this knowledge, the role of the rhizosphere on watershed-scale ecohydrologic functions in the Critical Zone has not been fully characterized, and specifically, the extensive capabilities of reactive transport models (RTMs) have not been applied to these hydrobiogeochemical dynamics. This study uniquely links rhizospheric processes with reactive transport modeling to couple soil biogeochemistry, biological processes, hydrologic flow, hydraulic redistribution, and vegetation dynamics. Key factors in the novel modeling approach are: (i) bi-directional effects of root-soil interaction, such as simultaneous root exudation and nutrient absorption; (ii) multi-state biomass fractions in soil (i.e. living, dormant, and dead biological and root materials); (iii) expression of three-dimensional fluxes to represent both vertical and lateral interconnected flows and processes; and (iv) the potential to include the influence of non-stationary external forcing and climatic factors. We anticipate that the resulting model will demonstrate the extensive effects of plant root dynamics on ecohydrologic functions at the watershed scale and will ultimately contribute to a better characterization of efflux from both agricultural and natural systems.

Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of a Complex Simulation Model for Mosquito Population Dynamics, Dengue Transmission, and Their Control

PubMed Central

Ellis, Alicia M.; Garcia, Andres J.; Focks, Dana A.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

2011-01-01

Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters. Here, we present results of sensitivity analyses of two interrelated complex simulation models of mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission. We found that dengue transmission may be influenced most by survival in each life stage of the mosquito, mosquito biting behavior, and duration of the infectious period in humans. The importance of these biological processes for vector-borne disease models and the overwhelming lack of knowledge about them make acquisition of relevant field data on these biological processes a top research priority. PMID:21813844

A neural network model of metaphor understanding with dynamic interaction based on a statistical language analysis: targeting a human-like model.

PubMed

Terai, Asuka; Nakagawa, Masanori

2007-08-01

The purpose of this paper is to construct a model that represents the human process of understanding metaphors, focusing specifically on similes of the form an "A like B". Generally speaking, human beings are able to generate and understand many sorts of metaphors. This study constructs the model based on a probabilistic knowledge structure for concepts which is computed from a statistical analysis of a large-scale corpus. Consequently, this model is able to cover the many kinds of metaphors that human beings can generate. Moreover, the model implements the dynamic process of metaphor understanding by using a neural network with dynamic interactions. Finally, the validity of the model is confirmed by comparing model simulations with the results from a psychological experiment.

Multi-Topic Tracking Model for dynamic social network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yuhua; Liu, Changzheng; Zhao, Ming; Li, Ruixuan; Xiao, Hailing; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Jun

2016-07-01

The topic tracking problem has attracted much attention in the last decades. However, existing approaches rarely consider network structures and textual topics together. In this paper, we propose a novel statistical model based on dynamic bayesian network, namely Multi-Topic Tracking Model for Dynamic Social Network (MTTD). It takes influence phenomenon, selection phenomenon, document generative process and the evolution of textual topics into account. Specifically, in our MTTD model, Gibbs Random Field is defined to model the influence of historical status of users in the network and the interdependency between them in order to consider the influence phenomenon. To address the selection phenomenon, a stochastic block model is used to model the link generation process based on the users' interests to topics. Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (PLSA) is used to describe the document generative process according to the users' interests. Finally, the dependence on the historical topic status is also considered to ensure the continuity of the topic itself in topic evolution model. Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is utilized to estimate parameters in the proposed MTTD model. Empirical experiments on real datasets show that the MTTD model performs better than Popular Event Tracking (PET) and Dynamic Topic Model (DTM) in generalization performance, topic interpretability performance, topic content evolution and topic popularity evolution performance.

Statistical inference for noisy nonlinear ecological dynamic systems.

PubMed

Wood, Simon N

2010-08-26

Chaotic ecological dynamic systems defy conventional statistical analysis. Systems with near-chaotic dynamics are little better. Such systems are almost invariably driven by endogenous dynamic processes plus demographic and environmental process noise, and are only observable with error. Their sensitivity to history means that minute changes in the driving noise realization, or the system parameters, will cause drastic changes in the system trajectory. This sensitivity is inherited and amplified by the joint probability density of the observable data and the process noise, rendering it useless as the basis for obtaining measures of statistical fit. Because the joint density is the basis for the fit measures used by all conventional statistical methods, this is a major theoretical shortcoming. The inability to make well-founded statistical inferences about biological dynamic models in the chaotic and near-chaotic regimes, other than on an ad hoc basis, leaves dynamic theory without the methods of quantitative validation that are essential tools in the rest of biological science. Here I show that this impasse can be resolved in a simple and general manner, using a method that requires only the ability to simulate the observed data on a system from the dynamic model about which inferences are required. The raw data series are reduced to phase-insensitive summary statistics, quantifying local dynamic structure and the distribution of observations. Simulation is used to obtain the mean and the covariance matrix of the statistics, given model parameters, allowing the construction of a 'synthetic likelihood' that assesses model fit. This likelihood can be explored using a straightforward Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, but one further post-processing step returns pure likelihood-based inference. I apply the method to establish the dynamic nature of the fluctuations in Nicholson's classic blowfly experiments.

Hierarchical coarse-graining model for photosystem II including electron and excitation-energy transfer processes.

PubMed

Matsuoka, Takeshi; Tanaka, Shigenori; Ebina, Kuniyoshi

2014-03-01

We propose a hierarchical reduction scheme to cope with coupled rate equations that describe the dynamics of multi-time-scale photosynthetic reactions. To numerically solve nonlinear dynamical equations containing a wide temporal range of rate constants, we first study a prototypical three-variable model. Using a separation of the time scale of rate constants combined with identified slow variables as (quasi-)conserved quantities in the fast process, we achieve a coarse-graining of the dynamical equations reduced to those at a slower time scale. By iteratively employing this reduction method, the coarse-graining of broadly multi-scale dynamical equations can be performed in a hierarchical manner. We then apply this scheme to the reaction dynamics analysis of a simplified model for an illuminated photosystem II, which involves many processes of electron and excitation-energy transfers with a wide range of rate constants. We thus confirm a good agreement between the coarse-grained and fully (finely) integrated results for the population dynamics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analytically Solvable Model of Spreading Dynamics with Non-Poissonian Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, Hang-Hyun; Perotti, Juan I.; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

2014-01-01

Non-Poissonian bursty processes are ubiquitous in natural and social phenomena, yet little is known about their effects on the large-scale spreading dynamics. In order to characterize these effects, we devise an analytically solvable model of susceptible-infected spreading dynamics in infinite systems for arbitrary inter-event time distributions and for the whole time range. Our model is stationary from the beginning, and the role of the lower bound of inter-event times is explicitly considered. The exact solution shows that for early and intermediate times, the burstiness accelerates the spreading as compared to a Poisson-like process with the same mean and same lower bound of inter-event times. Such behavior is opposite for late-time dynamics in finite systems, where the power-law distribution of inter-event times results in a slower and algebraic convergence to a fully infected state in contrast to the exponential decay of the Poisson-like process. We also provide an intuitive argument for the exponent characterizing algebraic convergence.

Modeling Dynamic Regulatory Processes in Stroke.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDermott, Jason E.; Jarman, Kenneth D.; Taylor, Ronald C.

2012-10-11

The ability to examine in silico the behavior of biological systems can greatly accelerate the pace of discovery in disease pathologies, such as stroke, where in vivo experimentation is lengthy and costly. In this paper we describe an approach to in silico examination of blood genomic responses to neuroprotective agents and subsequent stroke through the development of dynamic models of the regulatory processes observed in the experimental gene expression data. First, we identified functional gene clusters from these data. Next, we derived ordinary differential equations (ODEs) relating regulators and functional clusters from the data. These ODEs were used to developmore » dynamic models that simulate the expression of regulated functional clusters using system dynamics as the modeling paradigm. The dynamic model has the considerable advantage of only requiring an initial starting state, and does not require measurement of regulatory influences at each time point in order to make accurate predictions. The manipulation of input model parameters, such as changing the magnitude of gene expression, made it possible to assess the behavior of the networks through time under varying conditions. We report that an optimized dynamic model can provide accurate predictions of overall system behavior under several different preconditioning paradigms.« less

Boolean Dynamic Modeling Approaches to Study Plant Gene Regulatory Networks: Integration, Validation, and Prediction.

PubMed

Velderraín, José Dávila; Martínez-García, Juan Carlos; Álvarez-Buylla, Elena R

2017-01-01

Mathematical models based on dynamical systems theory are well-suited tools for the integration of available molecular experimental data into coherent frameworks in order to propose hypotheses about the cooperative regulatory mechanisms driving developmental processes. Computational analysis of the proposed models using well-established methods enables testing the hypotheses by contrasting predictions with observations. Within such framework, Boolean gene regulatory network dynamical models have been extensively used in modeling plant development. Boolean models are simple and intuitively appealing, ideal tools for collaborative efforts between theorists and experimentalists. In this chapter we present protocols used in our group for the study of diverse plant developmental processes. We focus on conceptual clarity and practical implementation, providing directions to the corresponding technical literature.

Dynamical systems, attractors, and neural circuits.

PubMed

Miller, Paul

2016-01-01

Biology is the study of dynamical systems. Yet most of us working in biology have limited pedagogical training in the theory of dynamical systems, an unfortunate historical fact that can be remedied for future generations of life scientists. In my particular field of systems neuroscience, neural circuits are rife with nonlinearities at all levels of description, rendering simple methodologies and our own intuition unreliable. Therefore, our ideas are likely to be wrong unless informed by good models. These models should be based on the mathematical theories of dynamical systems since functioning neurons are dynamic-they change their membrane potential and firing rates with time. Thus, selecting the appropriate type of dynamical system upon which to base a model is an important first step in the modeling process. This step all too easily goes awry, in part because there are many frameworks to choose from, in part because the sparsely sampled data can be consistent with a variety of dynamical processes, and in part because each modeler has a preferred modeling approach that is difficult to move away from. This brief review summarizes some of the main dynamical paradigms that can arise in neural circuits, with comments on what they can achieve computationally and what signatures might reveal their presence within empirical data. I provide examples of different dynamical systems using simple circuits of two or three cells, emphasizing that any one connectivity pattern is compatible with multiple, diverse functions.

Signal Processing in Periodically Forced Gradient Frequency Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Kim, Ji Chul; Large, Edward W.

2015-01-01

Oscillatory instability at the Hopf bifurcation is a dynamical phenomenon that has been suggested to characterize active non-linear processes observed in the auditory system. Networks of oscillators poised near Hopf bifurcation points and tuned to tonotopically distributed frequencies have been used as models of auditory processing at various levels, but systematic investigation of the dynamical properties of such oscillatory networks is still lacking. Here we provide a dynamical systems analysis of a canonical model for gradient frequency neural networks driven by a periodic signal. We use linear stability analysis to identify various driven behaviors of canonical oscillators for all possible ranges of model and forcing parameters. The analysis shows that canonical oscillators exhibit qualitatively different sets of driven states and transitions for different regimes of model parameters. We classify the parameter regimes into four main categories based on their distinct signal processing capabilities. This analysis will lead to deeper understanding of the diverse behaviors of neural systems under periodic forcing and can inform the design of oscillatory network models of auditory signal processing. PMID:26733858

Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) HGAS Induced Jitter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Alice; Blaurock, Carl; Liu, Kuo-Chia; Mule, Peter

2008-01-01

This paper presents the results of a comprehensive assessment of High Gain Antenna System induced jitter on the Solar Dynamics Observatory. The jitter prediction is created using a coupled model of the structural dynamics, optical response, control systems, and stepper motor actuator electromechanical dynamics. The paper gives an overview of the model components, presents the verification processes used to evaluate the models, describes validation and calibration tests and model-to-measurement comparison results, and presents the jitter analysis methodology and results.

Dynamic response analysis of structure under time-variant interval process model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Baizhan; Qin, Yuan; Yu, Dejie; Jiang, Chao

2016-10-01

Due to the aggressiveness of the environmental factor, the variation of the dynamic load, the degeneration of the material property and the wear of the machine surface, parameters related with the structure are distinctly time-variant. Typical model for time-variant uncertainties is the random process model which is constructed on the basis of a large number of samples. In this work, we propose a time-variant interval process model which can be effectively used to deal with time-variant uncertainties with limit information. And then two methods are presented for the dynamic response analysis of the structure under the time-variant interval process model. The first one is the direct Monte Carlo method (DMCM) whose computational burden is relative high. The second one is the Monte Carlo method based on the Chebyshev polynomial expansion (MCM-CPE) whose computational efficiency is high. In MCM-CPE, the dynamic response of the structure is approximated by the Chebyshev polynomials which can be efficiently calculated, and then the variational range of the dynamic response is estimated according to the samples yielded by the Monte Carlo method. To solve the dependency phenomenon of the interval operation, the affine arithmetic is integrated into the Chebyshev polynomial expansion. The computational effectiveness and efficiency of MCM-CPE is verified by two numerical examples, including a spring-mass-damper system and a shell structure.

The effects of global awareness on the spreading of epidemics in multiplex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zang, Haijuan

2018-02-01

It is increasingly recognized that understanding the complex interplay patterns between epidemic spreading and human behavioral is a key component of successful infection control efforts. In particular, individuals can obtain the information about epidemics and respond by altering their behaviors, which can affect the spreading dynamics as well. Besides, because the existence of herd-like behaviors, individuals are very easy to be influenced by the global awareness information. Here, in this paper, we propose a global awareness controlled spreading model (GACS) to explore the interplay between the coupled dynamical processes. Using the global microscopic Markov chain approach, we obtain the analytical results for the epidemic thresholds, which shows a high accuracy by comparison with lots of Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, considering other classical models used to describe the coupled dynamical processes, including the local awareness controlled contagion spreading (LACS) model, Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible-Unaware-Aware-Unaware (SIS-UAU) model and the single layer occasion, we make a detailed comparisons between the GACS with them. Although the comparisons and results depend on the parameters each model has, the GACS model always shows a strong restrain effects on epidemic spreading process. Our results give us a better understanding of the coupled dynamical processes and highlights the importance of considering the spreading of global awareness in the control of epidemics.

Direction of Amygdala-Neocortex Interaction During Dynamic Facial Expression Processing.

PubMed

Sato, Wataru; Kochiyama, Takanori; Uono, Shota; Yoshikawa, Sakiko; Toichi, Motomi

2017-03-01

Dynamic facial expressions of emotion strongly elicit multifaceted emotional, perceptual, cognitive, and motor responses. Neuroimaging studies revealed that some subcortical (e.g., amygdala) and neocortical (e.g., superior temporal sulcus and inferior frontal gyrus) brain regions and their functional interaction were involved in processing dynamic facial expressions. However, the direction of the functional interaction between the amygdala and the neocortex remains unknown. To investigate this issue, we re-analyzed functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data from 2 studies and magnetoencephalography (MEG) data from 1 study. First, a psychophysiological interaction analysis of the fMRI data confirmed the functional interaction between the amygdala and neocortical regions. Then, dynamic causal modeling analysis was used to compare models with forward, backward, or bidirectional effective connectivity between the amygdala and neocortical networks in the fMRI and MEG data. The results consistently supported the model of effective connectivity from the amygdala to the neocortex. Further increasing time-window analysis of the MEG demonstrated that this model was valid after 200 ms from the stimulus onset. These data suggest that emotional processing in the amygdala rapidly modulates some neocortical processing, such as perception, recognition, and motor mimicry, when observing dynamic facial expressions of emotion. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Solar Activity Across the Scales: From Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina N.; Collins, Nancy N.; Kosovichev, Alexander G.; Mansour, Nagi N.; Wray, Alan A.

2017-01-01

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar activity across the scales: from small-scale quiet-Sun dynamics to magnetic activity cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitiashvili, I.; Collins, N.; Kosovichev, A. G.; Mansour, N. N.; Wray, A. A.

2017-12-01

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high-resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Double dynamic scaling in human communication dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shengfeng; Feng, Xin; Wu, Ye; Xiao, Jinhua

2017-05-01

In the last decades, human behavior has been deeply understanding owing to the huge quantities data of human behavior available for study. The main finding in human dynamics shows that temporal processes consist of high-activity bursty intervals alternating with long low-activity periods. A model, assuming the initiator of bursty follow a Poisson process, is widely used in the modeling of human behavior. Here, we provide further evidence for the hypothesis that different bursty intervals are independent. Furthermore, we introduce a special threshold to quantitatively distinguish the time scales of complex dynamics based on the hypothesis. Our results suggest that human communication behavior is a composite process of double dynamics with midrange memory length. The method for calculating memory length would enhance the performance of many sequence-dependent systems, such as server operation and topic identification.

A Dynamic Process Model for Optimizing the Hospital Environment Cash-Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pater, Flavius; Rosu, Serban

2011-09-01

In this article is presented a new approach to some fundamental techniques of solving dynamic programming problems with the use of functional equations. We will analyze the problem of minimizing the cost of treatment in a hospital environment. Mathematical modeling of this process leads to an optimal control problem with a finite horizon.

Combining Mechanistic Approaches for Studying Eco-Hydro-Geomorphic Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francipane, A.; Ivanov, V.; Akutina, Y.; Noto, V.; Istanbullouglu, E.

2008-12-01

Vegetation interacts with hydrology and geomorphic form and processes of a river basin in profound ways. Despite recent advances in hydrological modeling, the dynamic coupling between these processes is yet to be adequately captured at the basin scale to elucidate key features of process interaction and their role in the organization of vegetation and landscape morphology. In this study, we present a blueprint for integrating a geomorphic component into the physically-based, spatially distributed ecohydrological model, tRIBS- VEGGIE, which reproduces essential water and energy processes over the complex topography of a river basin and links them to the basic plant life regulatory processes. We present a preliminary design of the integrated modeling framework in which hillslope and channel erosion processes at the catchment scale, will be coupled with vegetation-hydrology dynamics. We evaluate the developed framework by applying the integrated model to Lucky Hills basin, a sub-catchment of the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (Arizona). The evaluation is carried out by comparing sediment yields at the basin outlet, that follows a detailed verification of simulated land-surface energy partition, biomass dynamics, and soil moisture states.

Emotions are emergent processes: they require a dynamic computational architecture

PubMed Central

Scherer, Klaus R.

2009-01-01

Emotion is a cultural and psychobiological adaptation mechanism which allows each individual to react flexibly and dynamically to environmental contingencies. From this claim flows a description of the elements theoretically needed to construct a virtual agent with the ability to display human-like emotions and to respond appropriately to human emotional expression. This article offers a brief survey of the desirable features of emotion theories that make them ideal blueprints for agent models. In particular, the component process model of emotion is described, a theory which postulates emotion-antecedent appraisal on different levels of processing that drive response system patterning predictions. In conclusion, investing seriously in emergent computational modelling of emotion using a nonlinear dynamic systems approach is suggested. PMID:19884141

Deep recurrent neural network reveals a hierarchy of process memory during dynamic natural vision.

PubMed

Shi, Junxing; Wen, Haiguang; Zhang, Yizhen; Han, Kuan; Liu, Zhongming

2018-05-01

The human visual cortex extracts both spatial and temporal visual features to support perception and guide behavior. Deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) provide a computational framework to model cortical representation and organization for spatial visual processing, but unable to explain how the brain processes temporal information. To overcome this limitation, we extended a CNN by adding recurrent connections to different layers of the CNN to allow spatial representations to be remembered and accumulated over time. The extended model, or the recurrent neural network (RNN), embodied a hierarchical and distributed model of process memory as an integral part of visual processing. Unlike the CNN, the RNN learned spatiotemporal features from videos to enable action recognition. The RNN better predicted cortical responses to natural movie stimuli than the CNN, at all visual areas, especially those along the dorsal stream. As a fully observable model of visual processing, the RNN also revealed a cortical hierarchy of temporal receptive window, dynamics of process memory, and spatiotemporal representations. These results support the hypothesis of process memory, and demonstrate the potential of using the RNN for in-depth computational understanding of dynamic natural vision. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modeling of laser induced air plasma and shock wave dynamics using 2D-hydrodynamic simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paturi, Prem Kiran; S, Sai Shiva; Chelikani, Leela; Ikkurthi, Venkata Ramana; C. D., Sijoy; Chaturvedi, Shashank; Acrhem, University Of Hyderabad Team; Computational Analysis Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Visakhapatnam Team

2017-06-01

The laser induced air plasma dynamics and the SW evolution modeled using the two dimensional hydrodynamic code by considering two different EOS: ideal gas EOS with charge state effects taken into consideration and Chemical Equilibrium applications (CEA) EOS considering the chemical kinetics of different species will be presented. The inverse bremsstrahlung absorption process due to electron-ion and electron-neutrals is considered for the laser-air interaction process for both the models. The numerical results obtained with the two models were compared with that of the experimental observations over the time scales of 200 - 4000 ns at an input laser intensity of 2.3 ×1010 W/cm2. The comparison shows that the plasma and shock dynamics differ significantly for two EOS considered. With the ideas gas EOS the asymmetric expansion and the subsequent plasma dynamics have been well reproduced as observed in the experiments, whereas with the CEA model these processes were not reproduced due to the laser energy absorption occurring mostly at the focal volume. ACRHEM team thank DRDO, India for funding.

Dynamic imaging model and parameter optimization for a star tracker.

PubMed

Yan, Jinyun; Jiang, Jie; Zhang, Guangjun

2016-03-21

Under dynamic conditions, star spots move across the image plane of a star tracker and form a smeared star image. This smearing effect increases errors in star position estimation and degrades attitude accuracy. First, an analytical energy distribution model of a smeared star spot is established based on a line segment spread function because the dynamic imaging process of a star tracker is equivalent to the static imaging process of linear light sources. The proposed model, which has a clear physical meaning, explicitly reflects the key parameters of the imaging process, including incident flux, exposure time, velocity of a star spot in an image plane, and Gaussian radius. Furthermore, an analytical expression of the centroiding error of the smeared star spot is derived using the proposed model. An accurate and comprehensive evaluation of centroiding accuracy is obtained based on the expression. Moreover, analytical solutions of the optimal parameters are derived to achieve the best performance in centroid estimation. Finally, we perform numerical simulations and a night sky experiment to validate the correctness of the dynamic imaging model, the centroiding error expression, and the optimal parameters.

SISL and SIRL: Two knowledge dissemination models with leader nodes on cooperative learning networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jingjing; Zhang, Yumei; Man, Jiayu; Zhou, Yun; Wu, Xiaojun

2017-02-01

Cooperative learning is one of the most effective teaching methods, which has been widely used. Students' mutual contact forms a cooperative learning network in this process. Our previous research demonstrated that the cooperative learning network has complex characteristics. This study aims to investigating the dynamic spreading process of the knowledge in the cooperative learning network and the inspiration of leaders in this process. To this end, complex network transmission dynamics theory is utilized to construct the knowledge dissemination model of a cooperative learning network. Based on the existing epidemic models, we propose a new susceptible-infected-susceptible-leader (SISL) model that considers both students' forgetting and leaders' inspiration, and a susceptible-infected-removed-leader (SIRL) model that considers students' interest in spreading and leaders' inspiration. The spreading threshold λcand its impact factors are analyzed. Then, numerical simulation and analysis are delivered to reveal the dynamic transmission mechanism of knowledge and leaders' role. This work is of great significance to cooperative learning theory and teaching practice. It also enriches the theory of complex network transmission dynamics.

Modeling nuclear processes by Simulink

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rashid, Nahrul Khair Alang Md, E-mail: nahrul@iium.edu.my

2015-04-29

Modelling and simulation are essential parts in the study of dynamic systems behaviours. In nuclear engineering, modelling and simulation are important to assess the expected results of an experiment before the actual experiment is conducted or in the design of nuclear facilities. In education, modelling can give insight into the dynamic of systems and processes. Most nuclear processes can be described by ordinary or partial differential equations. Efforts expended to solve the equations using analytical or numerical solutions consume time and distract attention from the objectives of modelling itself. This paper presents the use of Simulink, a MATLAB toolbox softwaremore » that is widely used in control engineering, as a modelling platform for the study of nuclear processes including nuclear reactor behaviours. Starting from the describing equations, Simulink models for heat transfer, radionuclide decay process, delayed neutrons effect, reactor point kinetic equations with delayed neutron groups, and the effect of temperature feedback are used as examples.« less

A SIMPLE CELLULAR AUTOMATON MODEL FOR HIGH-LEVEL VEGETATION DYNAMICS

EPA Science Inventory

We have produced a simple two-dimensional (ground-plan) cellular automata model of vegetation dynamics specifically to investigate high-level community processes. The model is probabilistic, with individual plant behavior determined by physiologically-based rules derived from a w...

A dynamic dual process model of risky decision making.

PubMed

Diederich, Adele; Trueblood, Jennifer S

2018-03-01

Many phenomena in judgment and decision making are often attributed to the interaction of 2 systems of reasoning. Although these so-called dual process theories can explain many types of behavior, they are rarely formalized as mathematical or computational models. Rather, dual process models are typically verbal theories, which are difficult to conclusively evaluate or test. In the cases in which formal (i.e., mathematical) dual process models have been proposed, they have not been quantitatively fit to experimental data and are often silent when it comes to the timing of the 2 systems. In the current article, we present a dynamic dual process model framework of risky decision making that provides an account of the timing and interaction of the 2 systems and can explain both choice and response-time data. We outline several predictions of the model, including how changes in the timing of the 2 systems as well as time pressure can influence behavior. The framework also allows us to explore different assumptions about how preferences are constructed by the 2 systems as well as the dynamic interaction of the 2 systems. In particular, we examine 3 different possible functional forms of the 2 systems and 2 possible ways the systems can interact (simultaneously or serially). We compare these dual process models with 2 single process models using risky decision making data from Guo, Trueblood, and Diederich (2017). Using this data, we find that 1 of the dual process models significantly outperforms the other models in accounting for both choices and response times. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Understanding the effects of different HIV transmission models in individual-based microsimulation of HIV epidemic dynamics in people who inject drugs

PubMed Central

MONTEIRO, J.F.G.; ESCUDERO, D.J.; WEINREB, C.; FLANIGAN, T.; GALEA, S.; FRIEDMAN, S.R.; MARSHALL, B.D.L.

2017-01-01

SUMMARY We investigated how different models of HIV transmission, and assumptions regarding the distribution of unprotected sex and syringe-sharing events (‘risk acts’), affect quantitative understanding of HIV transmission process in people who inject drugs (PWID). The individual-based model simulated HIV transmission in a dynamic sexual and injecting network representing New York City. We constructed four HIV transmission models: model 1, constant probabilities; model 2, random number of sexual and parenteral acts; model 3, viral load individual assigned; and model 4, two groups of partnerships (low and high risk). Overall, models with less heterogeneity were more sensitive to changes in numbers risk acts, producing HIV incidence up to four times higher than that empirically observed. Although all models overestimated HIV incidence, micro-simulations with greater heterogeneity in the HIV transmission modelling process produced more robust results and better reproduced empirical epidemic dynamics. PMID:26753627

Semantic modeling of the structural and process entities during plastic deformation of crystals and rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babaie, Hassan; Davarpanah, Armita

2016-04-01

We are semantically modeling the structural and dynamic process components of the plastic deformation of minerals and rocks in the Plastic Deformation Ontology (PDO). Applying the Ontology of Physics in Biology, the PDO classifies the spatial entities that participate in the diverse processes of plastic deformation into the Physical_Plastic_Deformation_Entity and Nonphysical_Plastic_Deformation_Entity classes. The Material_Physical_Plastic_Deformation_Entity class includes things such as microstructures, lattice defects, atoms, liquid, and grain boundaries, and the Immaterial_Physical_Plastic_Deformation_Entity class includes vacancies in crystals and voids along mineral grain boundaries. The objects under the many subclasses of these classes (e.g., crystal, lattice defect, layering) have spatial parts that are related to each other through taxonomic (e.g., Line_Defect isA Lattice_Defect), structural (mereological, e.g., Twin_Plane partOf Twin), spatial-topological (e.g., Vacancy adjacentTo Atom, Fluid locatedAlong Grain_Boundary), and domain specific (e.g., displaces, Fluid crystallizes Dissolved_Ion, Void existsAlong Grain_Boundary) relationships. The dynamic aspect of the plastic deformation is modeled under the dynamical Process_Entity class that subsumes classes such as Recrystallization and Pressure_Solution that define the flow of energy amongst the physical entities. The values of the dynamical state properties of the physical entities (e.g., Chemical_Potential, Temperature, Particle_Velocity) change while they take part in the deformational processes such as Diffusion and Dislocation_Glide. The process entities have temporal parts (phases) that are related to each other through temporal relations such as precedes, isSubprocessOf, and overlaps. The properties of the physical entities, defined under the Physical_Property class, change as they participate in the plastic deformational processes. The properties are categorized into dynamical, constitutive, spatial, temporal, statistical, and thermodynamical. The dynamical properties, categorized under the Dynamical_Rate_Property and Dynamical_State_Property classes, subsume different classes of properties (e.g., Fluid_Flow_Rate, Temperature, Chemical_Potential, Displacement, Electrical_Charge) based on the physical domain (e.g., fluid, heat, chemical, solid, electrical). The properties are related to the objects under the Physical_Entity class through diverse object type (e.g., physicalPropertyOf) and data type (e.g., Fluid_Pressure unit 'MPa') properties. The changes of the dynamical properties of the physical entities, described by the empirical laws (equations) modeled by experimental structural geologists, are modeled through the Physical_Property_Dependency class that subsumes the more specialized constitutive, kinetic, and thermodynamic expressions of the relationships among the dynamic properties. Annotation based on the PDO will make it possible to integrate and reuse experimental plastic deformation data, knowledge, and simulation models, and conduct semantic-based search of the source data originating from different rock testing laboratories.

Clinical time series prediction: Toward a hierarchical dynamical system framework.

PubMed

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2015-09-01

Developing machine learning and data mining algorithms for building temporal models of clinical time series is important for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, effect of various patient management interventions and clinical decision making. In this work, we propose and develop a novel hierarchical framework for modeling clinical time series data of varied length and with irregularly sampled observations. Our hierarchical dynamical system framework for modeling clinical time series combines advantages of the two temporal modeling approaches: the linear dynamical system and the Gaussian process. We model the irregularly sampled clinical time series by using multiple Gaussian process sequences in the lower level of our hierarchical framework and capture the transitions between Gaussian processes by utilizing the linear dynamical system. The experiments are conducted on the complete blood count (CBC) panel data of 1000 post-surgical cardiac patients during their hospitalization. Our framework is evaluated and compared to multiple baseline approaches in terms of the mean absolute prediction error and the absolute percentage error. We tested our framework by first learning the time series model from data for the patients in the training set, and then using it to predict future time series values for the patients in the test set. We show that our model outperforms multiple existing models in terms of its predictive accuracy. Our method achieved a 3.13% average prediction accuracy improvement on ten CBC lab time series when it was compared against the best performing baseline. A 5.25% average accuracy improvement was observed when only short-term predictions were considered. A new hierarchical dynamical system framework that lets us model irregularly sampled time series data is a promising new direction for modeling clinical time series and for improving their predictive performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Model-Data Fusion to Test Hypothesized Drivers of Lake Carbon Cycling Reveals Importance of Physical Controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hararuk, Oleksandra; Zwart, Jacob A.; Jones, Stuart E.; Prairie, Yves; Solomon, Christopher T.

2018-03-01

Formal integration of models and data to test hypotheses about the processes controlling carbon dynamics in lakes is rare, despite the importance of lakes in the carbon cycle. We built a suite of models (n = 102) representing different hypotheses about lake carbon processing, fit these models to data from a north-temperate lake using data assimilation, and identified which processes were essential for adequately describing the observations. The hypotheses that we tested concerned organic matter lability and its variability through time, temperature dependence of biological decay, photooxidation, microbial dynamics, and vertical transport of water via hypolimnetic entrainment and inflowing density currents. The data included epilimnetic and hypolimnetic CO2 and dissolved organic carbon, hydrologic fluxes, carbon loads, gross primary production, temperature, and light conditions at high frequency for one calibration and one validation year. The best models explained 76-81% and 64-67% of the variability in observed epilimnetic CO2 and dissolved organic carbon content in the validation data. Accurately describing C dynamics required accounting for hypolimnetic entrainment and inflowing density currents, in addition to accounting for biological transformations. In contrast, neither photooxidation nor variable organic matter lability improved model performance. The temperature dependence of biological decay (Q10) was estimated at 1.45, significantly lower than the commonly assumed Q10 of 2. By confronting multiple models of lake C dynamics with observations, we identified processes essential for describing C dynamics in a temperate lake at daily to annual scales, while also providing a methodological roadmap for using data assimilation to further improve understanding of lake C cycling.

The new car following model considering vehicle dynamics influence and numerical simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Dihua; Liu, Hui; Zhang, Geng; Zhao, Min

2015-12-01

In this paper, the car following model is investigated by considering the vehicle dynamics in a cyber physical view. In fact, that driving is a typical cyber physical process which couples the cyber aspect of the vehicles' information and driving decision tightly with the dynamics and physics of the vehicles and traffic environment. However, the influence from the physical (vehicle) view was been ignored in the previous car following models. In order to describe the car following behavior more reasonably in real traffic, a new car following model by considering vehicle dynamics (for short, D-CFM) is proposed. In this paper, we take the full velocity difference (FVD) car following model as a case. The stability condition is given on the base of the control theory. The analytical method and numerical simulation results show that the new models can describe the evolution of traffic congestion. The simulations also show vehicles with a more actual acceleration of starting process than early models.

Quality by control: Towards model predictive control of mammalian cell culture bioprocesses.

PubMed

Sommeregger, Wolfgang; Sissolak, Bernhard; Kandra, Kulwant; von Stosch, Moritz; Mayer, Martin; Striedner, Gerald

2017-07-01

The industrial production of complex biopharmaceuticals using recombinant mammalian cell lines is still mainly built on a quality by testing approach, which is represented by fixed process conditions and extensive testing of the end-product. In 2004 the FDA launched the process analytical technology initiative, aiming to guide the industry towards advanced process monitoring and better understanding of how critical process parameters affect the critical quality attributes. Implementation of process analytical technology into the bio-production process enables moving from the quality by testing to a more flexible quality by design approach. The application of advanced sensor systems in combination with mathematical modelling techniques offers enhanced process understanding, allows on-line prediction of critical quality attributes and subsequently real-time product quality control. In this review opportunities and unsolved issues on the road to a successful quality by design and dynamic control implementation are discussed. A major focus is directed on the preconditions for the application of model predictive control for mammalian cell culture bioprocesses. Design of experiments providing information about the process dynamics upon parameter change, dynamic process models, on-line process state predictions and powerful software environments seem to be a prerequisite for quality by control realization. © 2017 The Authors. Biotechnology Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Modeling Quantum Dynamics in Multidimensional Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liss, Kyle; Weinacht, Thomas; Pearson, Brett

2017-04-01

Coupling between different degrees-of-freedom is an inherent aspect of dynamics in multidimensional quantum systems. As experiments and theory begin to tackle larger molecular structures and environments, models that account for vibrational and/or electronic couplings are essential for interpretation. Relevant processes include intramolecular vibrational relaxation, conical intersections, and system-bath coupling. We describe a set of simulations designed to model coupling processes in multidimensional molecular systems, focusing on models that provide insight and allow visualization of the dynamics. Undergraduates carried out much of the work as part of a senior research project. In addition to the pedagogical value, the simulations allow for comparison between both explicit and implicit treatments of a system's many degrees-of-freedom.

New Evidence for Strategic Differences between Static and Dynamic Search Tasks: An Individual Observer Analysis of Eye Movements

PubMed Central

Dickinson, Christopher A.; Zelinsky, Gregory J.

2013-01-01

Two experiments are reported that further explore the processes underlying dynamic search. In Experiment 1, observers’ oculomotor behavior was monitored while they searched for a randomly oriented T among oriented L distractors under static and dynamic viewing conditions. Despite similar search slopes, eye movements were less frequent and more spatially constrained under dynamic viewing relative to static, with misses also increasing more with target eccentricity in the dynamic condition. These patterns suggest that dynamic search involves a form of sit-and-wait strategy in which search is restricted to a small group of items surrounding fixation. To evaluate this interpretation, we developed a computational model of a sit-and-wait process hypothesized to underlie dynamic search. In Experiment 2 we tested this model by varying fixation position in the display and found that display positions optimized for a sit-and-wait strategy resulted in higher d′ values relative to a less optimal location. We conclude that different strategies, and therefore underlying processes, are used to search static and dynamic displays. PMID:23372555

Model-data integration to improve the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, Matthias; Thonicke, Kirsten; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thurner, Martin; von Bloh, Werner; Dorigo, Wouter; Carvalhais, Nuno

2017-04-01

Dynamic global vegetation models show large uncertainties regarding the development of the land carbon balance under future climate change conditions. This uncertainty is partly caused by differences in how vegetation carbon turnover is represented in global vegetation models. Model-data integration approaches might help to systematically assess and improve model performances and thus to potentially reduce the uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses under future climate change. Here we present several applications of model-data integration with the LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Lands) dynamic global vegetation model to systematically improve the representation of processes or to estimate model parameters. In a first application, we used global satellite-derived datasets of FAPAR (fraction of absorbed photosynthetic activity), albedo and gross primary production to estimate phenology- and productivity-related model parameters using a genetic optimization algorithm. Thereby we identified major limitations of the phenology module and implemented an alternative empirical phenology model. The new phenology module and optimized model parameters resulted in a better performance of LPJmL in representing global spatial patterns of biomass, tree cover, and the temporal dynamic of atmospheric CO2. Therefore, we used in a second application additionally global datasets of biomass and land cover to estimate model parameters that control vegetation establishment and mortality. The results demonstrate the ability to improve simulations of vegetation dynamics but also highlight the need to improve the representation of mortality processes in dynamic global vegetation models. In a third application, we used multiple site-level observations of ecosystem carbon and water exchange, biomass and soil organic carbon to jointly estimate various model parameters that control ecosystem dynamics. This exercise demonstrates the strong role of individual data streams on the simulated ecosystem dynamics which consequently changed the development of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes under future climate and CO2 change. In summary, our results demonstrate challenges and the potential of using model-data integration approaches to improve a dynamic global vegetation model.

Dynamic predictive model for the growth of Salmonella spp. in liquid whole egg.

PubMed

Singh, Aikansh; Korasapati, Nageswara R; Juneja, Vijay K; Subbiah, Jeyamkondan; Froning, Glenn; Thippareddi, Harshavardhan

2011-04-01

A dynamic model for the growth of Salmonella spp. in liquid whole egg (LWE) (approximately pH 7.8) under continuously varying temperature was developed. The model was validated using 2 (5 to 15 °C; 600 h and 10 to 40 °C; 52 h) sinusoidal, continuously varying temperature profiles. LWE adjusted to pH 7.8 was inoculated with approximately 2.5-3.0 log CFU/mL of Salmonella spp., and the growth data at several isothermal conditions (5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, and 47 °C) was collected. A primary model (Baranyi model) was fitted for each temperature growth data and corresponding maximum growth rates were estimated. Pseudo-R2 values were greater than 0.97 for primary models. Modified Ratkowsky model was used to fit the secondary model. The pseudo-R2 and root mean square error were 0.99 and 0.06 log CFU/mL, respectively, for the secondary model. A dynamic model for the prediction of Salmonella spp. growth under varying temperature conditions was developed using 4th-order Runge-Kutta method. The developed dynamic model was validated for 2 sinusoidal temperature profiles, 5 to 15 °C (for 600 h) and 10 to 40 °C (for 52 h) with corresponding root mean squared error values of 0.28 and 0.23 log CFU/mL, respectively, between predicted and observed Salmonella spp. populations. The developed dynamic model can be used to predict the growth of Salmonella spp. in LWE under varying temperature conditions.   Liquid egg and egg products are widely used in food processing and in restaurant operations. These products can be contaminated with Salmonella spp. during breaking and other unit operations during processing. The raw, liquid egg products are stored under refrigeration prior to pasteurization. However, process deviations can occur such as refrigeration failure, leading to temperature fluctuations above the required temperatures as specified in the critical limits within hazard analysis and critical control point plans for the operations. The processors are required to evaluate the potential growth of Salmonella spp. in such products before the product can be used, or further processed. Dynamic predictive models are excellent tools for regulators as well as the processing plant personnel to evaluate the microbiological safety of the product under such conditions.

Mathematical model of the loan portfolio dynamics in the form of Markov chain considering the process of new customers attraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozhalkina, Yana

2017-12-01

Mathematical model of the loan portfolio structure change in the form of Markov chain is explored. This model considers in one scheme both the process of customers attraction, their selection based on the credit score, and loans repayment. The model describes the structure and volume of the loan portfolio dynamics, which allows to make medium-term forecasts of profitability and risk. Within the model corrective actions of bank management in order to increase lending volumes or to reduce the risk are formalized.

Testability of evolutionary game dynamics based on experimental economics data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yijia; Chen, Xiaojie; Wang, Zhijian

In order to better understand the dynamic processes of a real game system, we need an appropriate dynamics model, so to evaluate the validity of a model is not a trivial task. Here, we demonstrate an approach, considering the dynamical macroscope patterns of angular momentum and speed as the measurement variables, to evaluate the validity of various dynamics models. Using the data in real time Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS) games experiments, we obtain the experimental dynamic patterns, and then derive the related theoretical dynamic patterns from a series of typical dynamics models respectively. By testing the goodness-of-fit between the experimental and theoretical patterns, the validity of the models can be evaluated. One of the results in our study case is that, among all the nonparametric models tested, the best-known Replicator dynamics model performs almost worst, while the Projection dynamics model performs best. Besides providing new empirical macroscope patterns of social dynamics, we demonstrate that the approach can be an effective and rigorous tool to test game dynamics models. Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (SSEYI2014Z) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 61503062).

Dynamic information processing states revealed through neurocognitive models of object semantics

PubMed Central

Clarke, Alex

2015-01-01

Recognising objects relies on highly dynamic, interactive brain networks to process multiple aspects of object information. To fully understand how different forms of information about objects are represented and processed in the brain requires a neurocognitive account of visual object recognition that combines a detailed cognitive model of semantic knowledge with a neurobiological model of visual object processing. Here we ask how specific cognitive factors are instantiated in our mental processes and how they dynamically evolve over time. We suggest that coarse semantic information, based on generic shared semantic knowledge, is rapidly extracted from visual inputs and is sufficient to drive rapid category decisions. Subsequent recurrent neural activity between the anterior temporal lobe and posterior fusiform supports the formation of object-specific semantic representations – a conjunctive process primarily driven by the perirhinal cortex. These object-specific representations require the integration of shared and distinguishing object properties and support the unique recognition of objects. We conclude that a valuable way of understanding the cognitive activity of the brain is though testing the relationship between specific cognitive measures and dynamic neural activity. This kind of approach allows us to move towards uncovering the information processing states of the brain and how they evolve over time. PMID:25745632

Physical Modeling of Contact Processes on the Cutting Tools Surfaces of STM When Turning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belozerov, V. A.; Uteshev, M. H.

2016-08-01

This article describes how to create an optimization model of the process of fine turning of superalloys and steel tools from STM on CNC machines, flexible manufacturing units (GPM), machining centers. Creation of the optimization model allows you to link (unite) contact processes simultaneously on the front and back surfaces of the tool from STM to manage contact processes and the dynamic strength of the cutting tool at the top of the STM. Established optimization model of management of the dynamic strength of the incisors of the STM in the process of fine turning is based on a previously developed thermomechanical (physical, heat) model, which allows the system thermomechanical approach to choosing brands STM (domestic and foreign) for cutting tools from STM designed for fine turning of heat resistant alloys and steels.

Stochastic GARCH dynamics describing correlations between stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prat-Ortega, G.; Savel'ev, S. E.

2014-09-01

The ARCH and GARCH processes have been successfully used for modelling price dynamics such as stock returns or foreign exchange rates. Analysing the long range correlations between stocks, we propose a model, based on the GARCH process, which is able to describe the main characteristics of the stock price correlations, including the mean, variance, probability density distribution and the noise spectrum.

Roi-Orientated Sensor Correction Based on Virtual Steady Reimaging Model for Wide Swath High Resolution Optical Satellite Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Y.; Jin, S.; Tian, Y.; Wang, M.

2017-09-01

To meet the requirement of high accuracy and high speed processing for wide swath high resolution optical satellite imagery under emergency situation in both ground processing system and on-board processing system. This paper proposed a ROI-orientated sensor correction algorithm based on virtual steady reimaging model for wide swath high resolution optical satellite imagery. Firstly, the imaging time and spatial window of the ROI is determined by a dynamic search method. Then, the dynamic ROI sensor correction model based on virtual steady reimaging model is constructed. Finally, the corrected image corresponding to the ROI is generated based on the coordinates mapping relationship which is established by the dynamic sensor correction model for corrected image and rigours imaging model for original image. Two experimental results show that the image registration between panchromatic and multispectral images can be well achieved and the image distortion caused by satellite jitter can be also corrected efficiently.

Estimating Power System Dynamic States Using Extended Kalman Filter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Zhenyu; Schneider, Kevin P.; Nieplocha, Jaroslaw

2014-10-31

Abstract—The state estimation tools which are currently deployed in power system control rooms are based on a steady state assumption. As a result, the suite of operational tools that rely on state estimation results as inputs do not have dynamic information available and their accuracy is compromised. This paper investigates the application of Extended Kalman Filtering techniques for estimating dynamic states in the state estimation process. The new formulated “dynamic state estimation” includes true system dynamics reflected in differential equations, not like previously proposed “dynamic state estimation” which only considers the time-variant snapshots based on steady state modeling. This newmore » dynamic state estimation using Extended Kalman Filter has been successfully tested on a multi-machine system. Sensitivity studies with respect to noise levels, sampling rates, model errors, and parameter errors are presented as well to illustrate the robust performance of the developed dynamic state estimation process.« less

Evolution dynamics modeling and simulation of logistics enterprise's core competence based on service innovation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Bo; Tong, Yuting

2017-04-01

With the rapid development of economy, the development of logistics enterprises in China is also facing a huge challenge, especially the logistics enterprises generally lack of core competitiveness, and service innovation awareness is not strong. Scholars in the process of studying the core competitiveness of logistics enterprises are mainly from the perspective of static stability, not from the perspective of dynamic evolution to explore. So the author analyzes the influencing factors and the evolution process of the core competence of logistics enterprises, using the method of system dynamics to study the cause and effect of the evolution of the core competence of logistics enterprises, construct a system dynamics model of evolution of core competence logistics enterprises, which can be simulated by vensim PLE. The analysis for the effectiveness and sensitivity of simulation model indicates the model can be used as the fitting of the evolution process of the core competence of logistics enterprises and reveal the process and mechanism of the evolution of the core competence of logistics enterprises, and provide management strategies for improving the core competence of logistics enterprises. The construction and operation of computer simulation model offers a kind of effective method for studying the evolution of logistics enterprise core competence.

Qualitative dynamics semantics for SBGN process description.

PubMed

Rougny, Adrien; Froidevaux, Christine; Calzone, Laurence; Paulevé, Loïc

2016-06-16

Qualitative dynamics semantics provide a coarse-grain modeling of networks dynamics by abstracting away kinetic parameters. They allow to capture general features of systems dynamics, such as attractors or reachability properties, for which scalable analyses exist. The Systems Biology Graphical Notation Process Description language (SBGN-PD) has become a standard to represent reaction networks. However, no qualitative dynamics semantics taking into account all the main features available in SBGN-PD had been proposed so far. We propose two qualitative dynamics semantics for SBGN-PD reaction networks, namely the general semantics and the stories semantics, that we formalize using asynchronous automata networks. While the general semantics extends standard Boolean semantics of reaction networks by taking into account all the main features of SBGN-PD, the stories semantics allows to model several molecules of a network by a unique variable. The obtained qualitative models can be checked against dynamical properties and therefore validated with respect to biological knowledge. We apply our framework to reason on the qualitative dynamics of a large network (more than 200 nodes) modeling the regulation of the cell cycle by RB/E2F. The proposed semantics provide a direct formalization of SBGN-PD networks in dynamical qualitative models that can be further analyzed using standard tools for discrete models. The dynamics in stories semantics have a lower dimension than the general one and prune multiple behaviors (which can be considered as spurious) by enforcing the mutual exclusiveness between the activity of different nodes of a same story. Overall, the qualitative semantics for SBGN-PD allow to capture efficiently important dynamical features of reaction network models and can be exploited to further refine them.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kress, Joel David

The development and scale up of cost effective carbon capture processes is of paramount importance to enable the widespread deployment of these technologies to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The U.S. Department of Energy initiated the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) in 2011 with the goal of developing a computational toolset that would enable industry to more effectively identify, design, scale up, operate, and optimize promising concepts. The first half of the presentation will introduce the CCSI Toolset consisting of basic data submodels, steady-state and dynamic process models, process optimization and uncertainty quantification tools, an advanced dynamic process control framework,more » and high-resolution filtered computationalfluid- dynamics (CFD) submodels. The second half of the presentation will describe a high-fidelity model of a mesoporous silica supported, polyethylenimine (PEI)-impregnated solid sorbent for CO 2 capture. The sorbent model includes a detailed treatment of transport and amine-CO 2- H 2O interactions based on quantum chemistry calculations. Using a Bayesian approach for uncertainty quantification, we calibrate the sorbent model to Thermogravimetric (TGA) data.« less

System Dynamics Modeling for Public Health: Background and Opportunities

PubMed Central

Homer, Jack B.; Hirsch, Gary B.

2006-01-01

The systems modeling methodology of system dynamics is well suited to address the dynamic complexity that characterizes many public health issues. The system dynamics approach involves the development of computer simulation models that portray processes of accumulation and feedback and that may be tested systematically to find effective policies for overcoming policy resistance. System dynamics modeling of chronic disease prevention should seek to incorporate all the basic elements of a modern ecological approach, including disease outcomes, health and risk behaviors, environmental factors, and health-related resources and delivery systems. System dynamics shows promise as a means of modeling multiple interacting diseases and risks, the interaction of delivery systems and diseased populations, and matters of national and state policy. PMID:16449591

Collaborative Research. Damage and Burst Dynamics in Failure of Complex Geomaterials. A Statistical Physics Approach to Understanding the Complex Emergent Dynamics in Near Mean-Field Geological Materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rundle, John B.; Klein, William

We have carried out research to determine the dynamics of failure in complex geomaterials, specifically focusing on the role of defects, damage and asperities in the catastrophic failure processes (now popularly termed “Black Swan events”). We have examined fracture branching and flow processes using models for invasion percolation, focusing particularly on the dynamics of bursts in the branching process. We have achieved a fundamental understanding of the dynamics of nucleation in complex geomaterials, specifically in the presence of inhomogeneous structures.

Carbon dynamics of river corridors and the effects of human alterations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wohl, Ellen; Hall, Robert O.; Lininger, Katherine B.

Research in stream metabolism, gas exchange, and sediment dynamics indicates that rivers are an active component of the global carbon cycle and that river form and process can influence partitioning of terrestrially derived carbon among the atmosphere, geosphere, and ocean. Here we develop a conceptual model of carbon dynamics (inputs, outputs, and storage of organic carbon) within a river corridor, which includes the active channel and the riparian zone. The exchange of carbon from the channel to the riparian zone represents potential for storage of transported carbon not included in the “active pipe” model of organic carbon (OC) dynamics inmore » freshwater systems. The active pipe model recognizes that river processes influence carbon dynamics, but focuses on CO2 emissions from the channel and eventual delivery to the ocean. We also review how human activities directly and indirectly alter carbon dynamics within river corridors. We propose that dams create the most significant alteration of carbon dynamics within a channel, but that alteration of riparian zones, including the reduction of lateral connectivity between the channel and riparian zone, constitutes the most substantial change of carbon dynamics in river corridors. We argue that the morphology and processes of a river corridor regulate the ability to store, transform, and transport OC, and that people are pervasive modifiers of river morphology and processes. The net effect of most human activities, with the notable exception of reservoir construction, appears to be that of reducing the ability of river corridors to store OC within biota and sediment, which effectively converts river corridors to OC sources rather than OC sinks. We conclude by summarizing knowledge gaps in OC dynamics and the implications of our findings for managing OC dynamics within river corridors.« less

Carbon dynamics of river corridors and the effects of human alterations

DOE PAGES

Wohl, Ellen; Hall, Robert O.; Lininger, Katherine B.; ...

2017-06-22

Research in stream metabolism, gas exchange, and sediment dynamics indicates that rivers are an active component of the global carbon cycle and that river form and process can influence partitioning of terrestrially derived carbon among the atmosphere, geosphere, and ocean. Here we develop a conceptual model of carbon dynamics (inputs, outputs, and storage of organic carbon) within a river corridor, which includes the active channel and the riparian zone. The exchange of carbon from the channel to the riparian zone represents potential for storage of transported carbon not included in the “active pipe” model of organic carbon (OC) dynamics inmore » freshwater systems. The active pipe model recognizes that river processes influence carbon dynamics, but focuses on CO2 emissions from the channel and eventual delivery to the ocean. We also review how human activities directly and indirectly alter carbon dynamics within river corridors. We propose that dams create the most significant alteration of carbon dynamics within a channel, but that alteration of riparian zones, including the reduction of lateral connectivity between the channel and riparian zone, constitutes the most substantial change of carbon dynamics in river corridors. We argue that the morphology and processes of a river corridor regulate the ability to store, transform, and transport OC, and that people are pervasive modifiers of river morphology and processes. The net effect of most human activities, with the notable exception of reservoir construction, appears to be that of reducing the ability of river corridors to store OC within biota and sediment, which effectively converts river corridors to OC sources rather than OC sinks. We conclude by summarizing knowledge gaps in OC dynamics and the implications of our findings for managing OC dynamics within river corridors.« less

Carbon dynamics of river corridors and the effects of human alterations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wohl, Ellen; Hall, Robert O.; Lininger, Katherine B; Sutfin, Nicholas A.; Walters, David

2017-01-01

Research in stream metabolism, gas exchange, and sediment dynamics indicates that rivers are an active component of the global carbon cycle and that river form and process can influence partitioning of terrestrially derived carbon among the atmosphere, geosphere, and ocean. Here we develop a conceptual model of carbon dynamics (inputs, outputs, and storage of organic carbon) within a river corridor, which includes the active channel and the riparian zone. The exchange of carbon from the channel to the riparian zone represents potential for storage of transported carbon not included in the “active pipe” model of organic carbon (OC) dynamics in freshwater systems. The active pipe model recognizes that river processes influence carbon dynamics, but focuses on CO2 emissions from the channel and eventual delivery to the ocean. We also review how human activities directly and indirectly alter carbon dynamics within river corridors. We propose that dams create the most significant alteration of carbon dynamics within a channel, but that alteration of riparian zones, including the reduction of lateral connectivity between the channel and riparian zone, constitutes the most substantial change of carbon dynamics in river corridors. We argue that the morphology and processes of a river corridor regulate the ability to store, transform, and transport OC, and that people are pervasive modifiers of river morphology and processes. The net effect of most human activities, with the notable exception of reservoir construction, appears to be that of reducing the ability of river corridors to store OC within biota and sediment, which effectively converts river corridors to OC sources rather than OC sinks. We conclude by summarizing knowledge gaps in OC dynamics and the implications of our findings for managing OC dynamics within river corridors.

Dynamic modeling of sludge compaction and consolidation processes in wastewater secondary settling tanks.

PubMed

Abusam, A; Keesman, K J

2009-01-01

The double exponential settling model is the widely accepted model for wastewater secondary settling tanks. However, this model does not estimate accurately solids concentrations in the settler underflow stream, mainly because sludge compression and consolidation processes are not considered. In activated sludge systems, accurate estimation of the solids in the underflow stream will facilitate the calibration process and can lead to correct estimates of particularly kinetic parameters related to biomass growth. Using principles of compaction and consolidation, as in soil mechanics, a dynamic model of the sludge consolidation processes taking place in the secondary settling tanks is developed and incorporated to the commonly used double exponential settling model. The modified double exponential model is calibrated and validated using data obtained from a full-scale wastewater treatment plant. Good agreement between predicted and measured data confirmed the validity of the modified model.

Quantification of live aboveground forest biomass dynamics with Landsat time-series and field inventory data: A comparison of empirical modeling approaches

Treesearch

Scott L. Powell; Warren B. Cohen; Sean P. Healey; Robert E. Kennedy; Gretchen G. Moisen; Kenneth B. Pierce; Janet L. Ohmann

2010-01-01

Spatially and temporally explicit knowledge of biomass dynamics at broad scales is critical to understanding how forest disturbance and regrowth processes influence carbon dynamics. We modeled live, aboveground tree biomass using Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field data and applied the models to 20+ year time-series of Landsat satellite imagery to...

Instantaneous nonlinear assessment of complex cardiovascular dynamics by Laguerre-Volterra point process models.

PubMed

Valenza, Gaetano; Citi, Luca; Barbieri, Riccardo

2013-01-01

We report an exemplary study of instantaneous assessment of cardiovascular dynamics performed using point-process nonlinear models based on Laguerre expansion of the linear and nonlinear Wiener-Volterra kernels. As quantifiers, instantaneous measures such as high order spectral features and Lyapunov exponents can be estimated from a quadratic and cubic autoregressive formulation of the model first order moment, respectively. Here, these measures are evaluated on heartbeat series coming from 16 healthy subjects and 14 patients with Congestive Hearth Failure (CHF). Data were gathered from the on-line repository PhysioBank, which has been taken as landmark for testing nonlinear indices. Results show that the proposed nonlinear Laguerre-Volterra point-process methods are able to track the nonlinear and complex cardiovascular dynamics, distinguishing significantly between CHF and healthy heartbeat series.

A Low Cost Microcomputer System for Process Dynamics and Control Simulations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crowl, D. A.; Durisin, M. J.

1983-01-01

Discusses a video simulator microcomputer system used to provide real-time demonstrations to strengthen students' understanding of process dynamics and control. Also discusses hardware/software and simulations developed using the system. The four simulations model various configurations of a process liquid level tank system. (JN)

Information Processing and Dynamics in Minimally Cognitive Agents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beer, Randall D.; Williams, Paul L.

2015-01-01

There has been considerable debate in the literature about the relative merits of information processing versus dynamical approaches to understanding cognitive processes. In this article, we explore the relationship between these two styles of explanation using a model agent evolved to solve a relational categorization task. Specifically, we…

The 1990 forest ecosystem dynamics multisensor aircraft campaign

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Darrel L.; Ranson, K. Jon

1991-01-01

The overall objective of the Forest Ecosystem Dynamics (FED) research activity is to develop a better understanding of the dynamics of forest ecosystem evolution over a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Primary emphasis is being placed on assessing the ecosystem dynamics associated with the transition zone between northern hardwood forests in eastern North America and the predominantly coniferous forests of the more northerly boreal biome. The approach is to combine ground-based, airborne, and satellite observations with an integrated forest pattern and process model which is being developed to link together existing models of forest growth and development, soil processes, and radiative transfer.

An individual-based model of zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics.

PubMed

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R R

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level.

An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

PubMed Central

Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

Resource-driven changes to host population stability alter the evolution of virulence and transmission.

PubMed

Hite, Jessica L; Cressler, Clayton E

2018-05-05

What drives the evolution of parasite life-history traits? Recent studies suggest that linking within- and between-host processes can provide key insight into both disease dynamics and parasite evolution. Still, it remains difficult to understand how to pinpoint the critical factors connecting these cross-scale feedbacks, particularly under non-equilibrium conditions; many natural host populations inherently fluctuate and parasites themselves can strongly alter the stability of host populations. Here, we develop a general model framework that mechanistically links resources to parasite evolution across a gradient of stable and unstable conditions. First, we dynamically link resources and between-host processes (host density, stability, transmission) to virulence evolution, using a 'non-nested' model. Then, we consider a 'nested' model where population-level processes (transmission and virulence) depend on resource-driven changes to individual-level (within-host) processes (energetics, immune function, parasite production). Contrary to 'non-nested' model predictions, the 'nested' model reveals complex effects of host population dynamics on parasite evolution, including regions of evolutionary bistability; evolution can push parasites towards strongly or weakly stabilizing strategies. This bistability results from dynamic feedbacks between resource-driven changes to host density, host immune function and parasite production. Together, these results highlight how cross-scale feedbacks can provide key insights into the structuring role of parasites and parasite evolution.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'. © 2018 The Author(s).

A biophysical model of dynamic balancing of excitation and inhibition in fast oscillatory large-scale networks

PubMed Central

Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N.; Brookes, Matthew J.; Woolrich, Mark W.

2018-01-01

Over long timescales, neuronal dynamics can be robust to quite large perturbations, such as changes in white matter connectivity and grey matter structure through processes including learning, aging, development and certain disease processes. One possible explanation is that robust dynamics are facilitated by homeostatic mechanisms that can dynamically rebalance brain networks. In this study, we simulate a cortical brain network using the Wilson-Cowan neural mass model with conduction delays and noise, and use inhibitory synaptic plasticity (ISP) to dynamically achieve a spatially local balance between excitation and inhibition. Using MEG data from 55 subjects we find that ISP enables us to simultaneously achieve high correlation with multiple measures of functional connectivity, including amplitude envelope correlation and phase locking. Further, we find that ISP successfully achieves local E/I balance, and can consistently predict the functional connectivity computed from real MEG data, for a much wider range of model parameters than is possible with a model without ISP. PMID:29474352

Analysis of dynamic system response to product random processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sidwell, K.

1978-01-01

The response of dynamic systems to the product of two independent Gaussian random processes is developed by use of the Fokker-Planck and associated moment equations. The development is applied to the amplitude modulated process which is used to model atmospheric turbulence in aeronautical applications. The exact solution for the system response is compared with the solution obtained by the quasi-steady approximation which omits the dynamic properties of the random amplitude modulation. The quasi-steady approximation is valid as a limiting case of the exact solution for the dynamic response of linear systems to amplitude modulated processes. In the nonlimiting case the quasi-steady approximation can be invalid for dynamic systems with low damping.

Dynamic emulation modelling for the optimal operation of water systems: an overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelletti, A.; Galelli, S.; Giuliani, M.

2014-12-01

Despite sustained increase in computing power over recent decades, computational limitations remain a major barrier to the effective and systematic use of large-scale, process-based simulation models in rational environmental decision-making. Whereas complex models may provide clear advantages when the goal of the modelling exercise is to enhance our understanding of the natural processes, they introduce problems of model identifiability caused by over-parameterization and suffer from high computational burden when used in management and planning problems. As a result, increasing attention is now being devoted to emulation modelling (or model reduction) as a way of overcoming these limitations. An emulation model, or emulator, is a low-order approximation of the process-based model that can be substituted for it in order to solve high resource-demanding problems. In this talk, an overview of emulation modelling within the context of the optimal operation of water systems will be provided. Particular emphasis will be given to Dynamic Emulation Modelling (DEMo), a special type of model complexity reduction in which the dynamic nature of the original process-based model is preserved, with consequent advantages in a wide range of problems, particularly feedback control problems. This will be contrasted with traditional non-dynamic emulators (e.g. response surface and surrogate models) that have been studied extensively in recent years and are mainly used for planning purposes. A number of real world numerical experiences will be used to support the discussion ranging from multi-outlet water quality control in water reservoir through erosion/sedimentation rebalancing in the operation of run-off-river power plants to salinity control in lake and reservoirs.

Dynamic pathway modeling of signal transduction networks: a domain-oriented approach.

PubMed

Conzelmann, Holger; Gilles, Ernst-Dieter

2008-01-01

Mathematical models of biological processes become more and more important in biology. The aim is a holistic understanding of how processes such as cellular communication, cell division, regulation, homeostasis, or adaptation work, how they are regulated, and how they react to perturbations. The great complexity of most of these processes necessitates the generation of mathematical models in order to address these questions. In this chapter we provide an introduction to basic principles of dynamic modeling and highlight both problems and chances of dynamic modeling in biology. The main focus will be on modeling of s transduction pathways, which requires the application of a special modeling approach. A common pattern, especially in eukaryotic signaling systems, is the formation of multi protein signaling complexes. Even for a small number of interacting proteins the number of distinguishable molecular species can be extremely high. This combinatorial complexity is due to the great number of distinct binding domains of many receptors and scaffold proteins involved in signal transduction. However, these problems can be overcome using a new domain-oriented modeling approach, which makes it possible to handle complex and branched signaling pathways.

First-principles modeling of laser-matter interaction and plasma dynamics in nanosecond pulsed laser shock processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhongyang; Nian, Qiong; Doumanidis, Charalabos C.; Liao, Yiliang

2018-02-01

Nanosecond pulsed laser shock processing (LSP) techniques, including laser shock peening, laser peen forming, and laser shock imprinting, have been employed for widespread industrial applications. In these processes, the main beneficial characteristic is the laser-induced shockwave with a high pressure (in the order of GPa), which leads to the plastic deformation with an ultrahigh strain rate (105-106/s) on the surface of target materials. Although LSP processes have been extensively studied by experiments, few efforts have been put on elucidating underlying process mechanisms through developing a physics-based process model. In particular, development of a first-principles model is critical for process optimization and novel process design. This work aims at introducing such a theoretical model for a fundamental understanding of process mechanisms in LSP. Emphasis is placed on the laser-matter interaction and plasma dynamics. This model is found to offer capabilities in predicting key parameters including electron and ion temperatures, plasma state variables (temperature, density, and pressure), and the propagation of the laser shockwave. The modeling results were validated by experimental data.

Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gerard H. E.

2009-04-16

In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gérard H. E.

2009-04-01

In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

Neural pathways in processing of sexual arousal: a dynamic causal modeling study.

PubMed

Seok, J-W; Park, M-S; Sohn, J-H

2016-09-01

Three decades of research have investigated brain processing of visual sexual stimuli with neuroimaging methods. These researchers have found that sexual arousal stimuli elicit activity in a broad neural network of cortical and subcortical brain areas that are known to be associated with cognitive, emotional, motivational and physiological components. However, it is not completely understood how these neural systems integrate and modulated incoming information. Therefore, we identify cerebral areas whose activations were correlated with sexual arousal using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging and used the dynamic causal modeling method for searching the effective connectivity about the sexual arousal processing network. Thirteen heterosexual males were scanned while they passively viewed alternating short trials of erotic and neutral pictures on a monitor. We created a subset of seven models based on our results and previous studies and selected a dominant connectivity model. Consequently, we suggest a dynamic causal model of the brain processes mediating the cognitive, emotional, motivational and physiological factors of human male sexual arousal. These findings are significant implications for the neuropsychology of male sexuality.

Global simulation of interactions between groundwater and terrestrial ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braakhekke, M. C.; Rebel, K.; Dekker, S. C.; Smith, B.; Van Beek, L. P.; Sutanudjaja, E.; van Kampenhout, L.; Wassen, M. J.

2016-12-01

In many places in the world ecosystems are influenced by the presence of a shallow groundwater table. In these regions upward water flux due to capillary rise increases soil moisture availability in the root zone, which has strong positive effect on evapotranspiration. Additionally it has important consequences for vegetation dynamics and fluxes of carbon and nitrogen. Under water limited conditions shallow groundwater stimulates vegetation productivity, and soil organic matter decomposition while under saturated conditions groundwater may have a negative effect on these processes due to lack of oxygen. Furthermore, since plant species differ with respect to their root distribution, preference for moisture conditions, and resistance to oxygen stress, shallow groundwater also influences vegetation type. Finally, processes such as denitrification and methane production occur under strictly anaerobic conditions and are thus strongly influenced by moisture availability. Most global hydrological models and several land surface models simulate groundwater table dynamics and their effects on land surface processes. However, these models typically have relatively simplistic representation of vegetation and do not consider changes in vegetation type and structure and are therefore less suitable to represent effects of groundwater on biogeochemical fluxes. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), describe land surface from an ecological perspective, combining detailed description of vegetation dynamics and structure and biogeochemical processes. These models are thus more appropriate to simulate the ecological and biogeochemical effects of groundwater interactions. However, currently virtually all DGVMs ignore these effects, assuming that water tables are too deep to affect soil moisture in the root zone. We have implemented a tight coupling between the dynamic global ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS and the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. Using this coupled model we aim to study the influence of shallow groundwater on terrestrial ecosystem processes. We will present results of global simulations to demonstrate the effects on C, N, and water fluxes.

LOGISTIC NETWORK REGRESSION FOR SCALABLE ANALYSIS OF NETWORKS WITH JOINT EDGE/VERTEX DYNAMICS

PubMed Central

Almquist, Zack W.; Butts, Carter T.

2015-01-01

Change in group size and composition has long been an important area of research in the social sciences. Similarly, interest in interaction dynamics has a long history in sociology and social psychology. However, the effects of endogenous group change on interaction dynamics are a surprisingly understudied area. One way to explore these relationships is through social network models. Network dynamics may be viewed as a process of change in the edge structure of a network, in the vertex set on which edges are defined, or in both simultaneously. Although early studies of such processes were primarily descriptive, recent work on this topic has increasingly turned to formal statistical models. Although showing great promise, many of these modern dynamic models are computationally intensive and scale very poorly in the size of the network under study and/or the number of time points considered. Likewise, currently used models focus on edge dynamics, with little support for endogenously changing vertex sets. Here, the authors show how an existing approach based on logistic network regression can be extended to serve as a highly scalable framework for modeling large networks with dynamic vertex sets. The authors place this approach within a general dynamic exponential family (exponential-family random graph modeling) context, clarifying the assumptions underlying the framework (and providing a clear path for extensions), and they show how model assessment methods for cross-sectional networks can be extended to the dynamic case. Finally, the authors illustrate this approach on a classic data set involving interactions among windsurfers on a California beach. PMID:26120218

LOGISTIC NETWORK REGRESSION FOR SCALABLE ANALYSIS OF NETWORKS WITH JOINT EDGE/VERTEX DYNAMICS.

PubMed

Almquist, Zack W; Butts, Carter T

2014-08-01

Change in group size and composition has long been an important area of research in the social sciences. Similarly, interest in interaction dynamics has a long history in sociology and social psychology. However, the effects of endogenous group change on interaction dynamics are a surprisingly understudied area. One way to explore these relationships is through social network models. Network dynamics may be viewed as a process of change in the edge structure of a network, in the vertex set on which edges are defined, or in both simultaneously. Although early studies of such processes were primarily descriptive, recent work on this topic has increasingly turned to formal statistical models. Although showing great promise, many of these modern dynamic models are computationally intensive and scale very poorly in the size of the network under study and/or the number of time points considered. Likewise, currently used models focus on edge dynamics, with little support for endogenously changing vertex sets. Here, the authors show how an existing approach based on logistic network regression can be extended to serve as a highly scalable framework for modeling large networks with dynamic vertex sets. The authors place this approach within a general dynamic exponential family (exponential-family random graph modeling) context, clarifying the assumptions underlying the framework (and providing a clear path for extensions), and they show how model assessment methods for cross-sectional networks can be extended to the dynamic case. Finally, the authors illustrate this approach on a classic data set involving interactions among windsurfers on a California beach.

The multiple time scales of sleep dynamics as a challenge for modelling the sleeping brain.

PubMed

Olbrich, Eckehard; Claussen, Jens Christian; Achermann, Peter

2011-10-13

A particular property of the sleeping brain is that it exhibits dynamics on very different time scales ranging from the typical sleep oscillations such as sleep spindles and slow waves that can be observed in electroencephalogram (EEG) segments of several seconds duration over the transitions between the different sleep stages on a time scale of minutes to the dynamical processes involved in sleep regulation with typical time constants in the range of hours. There is an increasing body of work on mathematical and computational models addressing these different dynamics, however, usually considering only processes on a single time scale. In this paper, we review and present a new analysis of the dynamics of human sleep EEG at the different time scales and relate the findings to recent modelling efforts pointing out both the achievements and remaining challenges.

Modelling and simulation of dynamic recrystallization (DRX) in OFHC copper at very high strain rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Testa, G.; Bonora, N.; Ruggiero, A.; Iannitti, G.; Persechino, I.; Hörnqvist, M.; Mortazavi, N.

2017-01-01

At high strain rates, deformation processes are essentially adiabatic and if the plastic work is large enough dynamic recrystallization can occur. In this work, an examination on microstructure evolution of OFHC copper in Dynamic Tensile Extrusion (DTE) test, performed at 400 m/s, was carried out. EBSD investigations, along the center line of the fragment remaining in the extrusion die, showed a progressive elongation of the grains, and an accompanying development of a strong <001> + <111> dual fiber texture. Discontinuous dynamic recrystallization (DRX) occurred at larger strains, and it was showed that nucleation occurred during straining. A criterion for DRX to occur, based on the evolution of Zener-Hollomon parameter during the dynamic deformation process, is proposed. Finally, DTE test was simulated using the modified Rusinek-Klepaczko constitutive model incorporating a model for the prediction of DRX initiation.

Inferring phenomenological models of Markov processes from data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivera, Catalina; Nemenman, Ilya

Microscopically accurate modeling of stochastic dynamics of biochemical networks is hard due to the extremely high dimensionality of the state space of such networks. Here we propose an algorithm for inference of phenomenological, coarse-grained models of Markov processes describing the network dynamics directly from data, without the intermediate step of microscopically accurate modeling. The approach relies on the linear nature of the Chemical Master Equation and uses Bayesian Model Selection for identification of parsimonious models that fit the data. When applied to synthetic data from the Kinetic Proofreading process (KPR), a common mechanism used by cells for increasing specificity of molecular assembly, the algorithm successfully uncovers the known coarse-grained description of the process. This phenomenological description has been notice previously, but this time it is derived in an automated manner by the algorithm. James S. McDonnell Foundation Grant No. 220020321.

Emotion unfolded by motion: a role for parietal lobe in decoding dynamic facial expressions.

PubMed

Sarkheil, Pegah; Goebel, Rainer; Schneider, Frank; Mathiak, Klaus

2013-12-01

Facial expressions convey important emotional and social information and are frequently applied in investigations of human affective processing. Dynamic faces may provide higher ecological validity to examine perceptual and cognitive processing of facial expressions. Higher order processing of emotional faces was addressed by varying the task and virtual face models systematically. Blood oxygenation level-dependent activation was assessed using functional magnetic resonance imaging in 20 healthy volunteers while viewing and evaluating either emotion or gender intensity of dynamic face stimuli. A general linear model analysis revealed that high valence activated a network of motion-responsive areas, indicating that visual motion areas support perceptual coding for the motion-based intensity of facial expressions. The comparison of emotion with gender discrimination task revealed increased activation of inferior parietal lobule, which highlights the involvement of parietal areas in processing of high level features of faces. Dynamic emotional stimuli may help to emphasize functions of the hypothesized 'extended' over the 'core' system for face processing.

Mesoscopic Modeling of Blood Clotting: Coagulation Cascade and Platelets Adhesion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yazdani, Alireza; Li, Zhen; Karniadakis, George

2015-11-01

The process of clot formation and growth at a site on a blood vessel wall involve a number of multi-scale simultaneous processes including: multiple chemical reactions in the coagulation cascade, species transport and flow. To model these processes we have incorporated advection-diffusion-reaction (ADR) of multiple species into an extended version of Dissipative Particle Dynamics (DPD) method which is considered as a coarse-grained Molecular Dynamics method. At the continuum level this is equivalent to the Navier-Stokes equation plus one advection-diffusion equation for each specie. The chemistry of clot formation is now understood to be determined by mechanisms involving reactions among many species in dilute solution, where reaction rate constants and species diffusion coefficients in plasma are known. The role of blood particulates, i.e. red cells and platelets, in the clotting process is studied by including them separately and together in the simulations. An agonist-induced platelet activation mechanism is presented, while platelets adhesive dynamics based on a stochastic bond formation/dissociation process is included in the model.

Using process algebra to develop predator-prey models of within-host parasite dynamics.

PubMed

McCaig, Chris; Fenton, Andy; Graham, Andrea; Shankland, Carron; Norman, Rachel

2013-07-21

As a first approximation of immune-mediated within-host parasite dynamics we can consider the immune response as a predator, with the parasite as its prey. In the ecological literature of predator-prey interactions there are a number of different functional responses used to describe how a predator reproduces in response to consuming prey. Until recently most of the models of the immune system that have taken a predator-prey approach have used simple mass action dynamics to capture the interaction between the immune response and the parasite. More recently Fenton and Perkins (2010) employed three of the most commonly used prey-dependent functional response terms from the ecological literature. In this paper we make use of a technique from computing science, process algebra, to develop mathematical models. The novelty of the process algebra approach is to allow stochastic models of the population (parasite and immune cells) to be developed from rules of individual cell behaviour. By using this approach in which individual cellular behaviour is captured we have derived a ratio-dependent response similar to that seen in the previous models of immune-mediated parasite dynamics, confirming that, whilst this type of term is controversial in ecological predator-prey models, it is appropriate for models of the immune system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Representing Micro-Macro Linkages by Actor-Based Dynamic Network Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snijders, Tom A. B.; Steglich, Christian E. G.

2015-01-01

Stochastic actor-based models for network dynamics have the primary aim of statistical inference about processes of network change, but may be regarded as a kind of agent-based models. Similar to many other agent-based models, they are based on local rules for actor behavior. Different from many other agent-based models, by including elements of…

Integration agent-based models and GIS as a virtual urban dynamic laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Peng; Liu, Miaolong

2007-06-01

Based on the Agent-based Model and spatial data model, a tight-coupling integrating method of GIS and Agent-based Model (ABM) is to be discussed in this paper. The use of object-orientation for both spatial data and spatial process models facilitates their integration, which can allow exploration and explanation of spatial-temporal phenomena such as urban dynamic. In order to better understand how tight coupling might proceed and to evaluate the possible functional and efficiency gains from such a tight coupling, the agent-based model and spatial data model are discussed, and then the relationships affecting spatial data model and agent-based process models interaction. After that, a realistic crowd flow simulation experiment is presented. Using some tools provided by general GIS systems and a few specific programming languages, a new software system integrating GIS and MAS as a virtual laboratory applicable for simulating pedestrian flows in a crowd activity centre has been developed successfully. Under the environment supported by the software system, as an applicable case, a dynamic evolution process of the pedestrian's flows (dispersed process for the spectators) in a crowds' activity center - The Shanghai Stadium has been simulated successfully. At the end of the paper, some new research problems have been pointed out for the future.

Metapopulation dynamics and the evolution of dispersal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parvinen, Kalle

A metapopulation consists of local populations living in habitat patches. In this chapter metapopulation dynamics and the evolution of dispersal is studied in two metapopulation models defined in discrete time. In the first model there are finitely many patches, and in the other one there are infinitely many patches, which allows to incorporate catastrophes into the model. In the first model, cyclic local population dynamics can be either synchronized or not, and increasing dispersal both synchronizes and stabilizes metapopulation dynamics. On the other hand, the type of dynamics has a strong effect on the evolution of dispersal. In case of non-synchronized metapopulation dynamics, dispersal is much more beneficial than in the case of synchronized metapopulation dynamics. Local dynamics has a substantial effect also on the possibility of evolutionary branching in both models. Furthermore, with an Allee effect in the local dynamics of the second model, even evolutionary suicide can occur. It is an evolutionary process in which a viable population adapts in such a way that it can no longer persist.

The western spruce budworm model: structure and content.

Treesearch

K.A. Sheehan; W.P. Kemp; J.J. Colbert; N.L. Crookston

1989-01-01

The Budworm Model predicts the amounts of foliage destroyed annually by the western spruce budworm, Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman, in a forest stand. The model may be used independently, or it may be linked to the Stand Prognosis Model to simulate the dynamics of forest stands. Many processes that affect budworm population dynamics are...

Modeling Human Dynamics of Face-to-Face Interaction Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starnini, Michele; Baronchelli, Andrea; Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo

2013-04-01

Face-to-face interaction networks describe social interactions in human gatherings, and are the substrate for processes such as epidemic spreading and gossip propagation. The bursty nature of human behavior characterizes many aspects of empirical data, such as the distribution of conversation lengths, of conversations per person, or of interconversation times. Despite several recent attempts, a general theoretical understanding of the global picture emerging from data is still lacking. Here we present a simple model that reproduces quantitatively most of the relevant features of empirical face-to-face interaction networks. The model describes agents that perform a random walk in a two-dimensional space and are characterized by an attractiveness whose effect is to slow down the motion of people around them. The proposed framework sheds light on the dynamics of human interactions and can improve the modeling of dynamical processes taking place on the ensuing dynamical social networks.

Dynamic Divisive Normalization Predicts Time-Varying Value Coding in Decision-Related Circuits

PubMed Central

LoFaro, Thomas; Webb, Ryan; Glimcher, Paul W.

2014-01-01

Normalization is a widespread neural computation, mediating divisive gain control in sensory processing and implementing a context-dependent value code in decision-related frontal and parietal cortices. Although decision-making is a dynamic process with complex temporal characteristics, most models of normalization are time-independent and little is known about the dynamic interaction of normalization and choice. Here, we show that a simple differential equation model of normalization explains the characteristic phasic-sustained pattern of cortical decision activity and predicts specific normalization dynamics: value coding during initial transients, time-varying value modulation, and delayed onset of contextual information. Empirically, we observe these predicted dynamics in saccade-related neurons in monkey lateral intraparietal cortex. Furthermore, such models naturally incorporate a time-weighted average of past activity, implementing an intrinsic reference-dependence in value coding. These results suggest that a single network mechanism can explain both transient and sustained decision activity, emphasizing the importance of a dynamic view of normalization in neural coding. PMID:25429145

Vegetation-hydrology dynamics in complex terrain of semiarid areas: 1. A mechanistic approach to modeling dynamic feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Bras, Rafael L.; Vivoni, Enrique R.

2008-03-01

Vegetation, particularly its dynamics, is the often-ignored linchpin of the land-surface hydrology. This work emphasizes the coupled nature of vegetation-water-energy dynamics by considering linkages at timescales that vary from hourly to interannual. A series of two papers is presented. A dynamic ecohydrological model [tRIBS + VEGGIE] is described in this paper. It reproduces essential water and energy processes over the complex topography of a river basin and links them to the basic plant life regulatory processes. The framework focuses on ecohydrology of semiarid environments exhibiting abundant input of solar energy but limiting soil water that correspondingly affects vegetation structure and organization. The mechanisms through which water limitation influences plant dynamics are related to carbon assimilation via the control of photosynthesis and stomatal behavior, carbon allocation, stress-induced foliage loss, as well as recruitment and phenology patterns. This first introductory paper demonstrates model performance using observations for a site located in a semiarid environment of central New Mexico.

Estimating the Contribution of Dynamical Ejecta in the Kilonova Associated with GW170817

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Afrough, M.; Agarwal, B.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allen, G.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Amato, A.; Ananyeva, A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Angelova, S. V.; Antier, S.; Appert, S.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Atallah, D. V.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; AultONeal, K.; Austin, C.; Avila-Alvarez, A.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Bae, S.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Banagiri, S.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barkett, K.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Bawaj, M.; Bayley, J. C.; Bazzan, M.; Bécsy, B.; Beer, C.; Bejger, M.; Belahcene, I.; Bell, A. S.; Bergmann, G.; Bernuzzi, S.; Bero, J. J.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Billman, C. R.; Birch, J.; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Biscoveanu, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackman, J.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Bode, N.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bohe, A.; Bondu, F.; Bonilla, E.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bossie, K.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; Broida, J. E.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. D.; Brunett, S.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cabero, M.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Callister, T. A.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Canepa, M.; Canizares, P.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, H.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Carney, M. F.; Casanueva Diaz, J.; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Cerdá-Durán, P.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chase, E.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chatterjee, D.; Chatziioannou, K.; Cheeseboro, B. D.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, X.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, H.-P.; Chia, H.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Chmiel, T.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, A. J. K.; Chua, S.; Chung, A. K. W.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Ciolfi, R.; Cirelli, C. E.; Cirone, A.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Clearwater, P.; Cleva, F.; Cocchieri, C.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Cohen, D.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L. R.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Conti, L.; Cooper, S. J.; Corban, P.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cordero-Carrión, I.; Corley, K. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Covas, P. B.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cullen, T. J.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Dálya, G.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dasgupta, A.; Da Silva Costa, C. F.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Davier, M.; Davis, D.; Daw, E. J.; Day, B.; De, S.; DeBra, D.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Demos, N.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; De Pietri, R.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; De Rossi, C.; DeSalvo, R.; de Varona, O.; Devenson, J.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Dietrich, T.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Giovanni, M.; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Renzo, F.; Doctor, Z.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Dorrington, I.; Douglas, R.; Dovale Álvarez, M.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Dreissigacker, C.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; Dupej, P.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Eisenstein, R. A.; Essick, R. C.; Estevez, D.; Etienne, Z. B.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E. J.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fee, C.; Fehrmann, H.; Feicht, J.; Fejer, M. M.; Fernandez-Galiana, A.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Finstad, D.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fishbach, M.; Fisher, R. P.; Fitz-Axen, M.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M.; Fong, H.; Font, J. A.; Forsyth, P. W. F.; Forsyth, S. S.; Fournier, J.-D.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fries, E. M.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H.; Gadre, B. U.; Gaebel, S. M.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Ganija, M. R.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garcia-Quiros, C.; Garufi, F.; Gateley, B.; Gaudio, S.; Gaur, G.; Gayathri, V.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, D.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghonge, S.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.; Glover, L.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gomes, S.; Goncharov, B.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Grado, A.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Gretarsson, E. M.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Gruning, P.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Halim, O.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hamilton, E. Z.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hannuksela, O. A.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hinderer, T.; Hoak, D.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Horst, C.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hreibi, A.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Indik, N.; Inta, R.; Intini, G.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J.-M.; Isi, M.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Johnson-McDaniel, N. K.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Junker, J.; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kamai, B.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Kapadia, S. J.; Karki, S.; Karvinen, K. S.; Kasprzack, M.; Kastaun, W.; Katolik, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kawabe, K.; Kawaguchi, K.; Kéfélian, F.; Keitel, D.; Kemball, A. J.; Kennedy, R.; Kent, C.; Key, J. S.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan, S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, Chunglee; Kim, J. C.; Kim, K.; Kim, W.; Kim, W. S.; Kim, Y.-M.; Kimbrell, S. J.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kinley-Hanlon, M.; Kirchhoff, R.; Kissel, J. S.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Knowles, T. D.; Koch, P.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Krämer, C.; Kringel, V.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kumar, S.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Kwang, S.; Lackey, B. D.; Lai, K. H.; Landry, M.; Lang, R. N.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lanza, R. K.; Larson, S. L.; Lartaux-Vollard, A.; Lasky, P. D.; Laxen, M.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, H. W.; Lee, K.; Lehmann, J.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Li, T. G. F.; Linker, S. D.; Littenberg, T. B.; Liu, J.; Liu, X.; Lo, R. K. L.; Lockerbie, N. A.; London, L. T.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lousto, C. O.; Lovelace, G.; Lück, H.; Lumaca, D.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macas, R.; Macfoy, S.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña Hernandez, I.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magaña Zertuche, L.; Magee, R. M.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Man, N.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markakis, C.; Markosyan, A. S.; Markowitz, A.; Maros, E.; Marquina, A.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Martynov, D. V.; Mason, K.; Massera, E.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Mastrogiovanni, S.; Matas, A.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McCuller, L.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McNeill, L.; McRae, T.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Mehmet, M.; Meidam, J.; Mejuto-Villa, E.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Metzdorff, R.; Meyers, P. M.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, B. B.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Milovich-Goff, M. C.; Minazzoli, O.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moffa, D.; Moggi, A.; Mogushi, K.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Muñiz, E. A.; Muratore, M.; Murray, P. G.; Napier, K.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R. K.; Neilson, J.; Nelemans, G.; Nelson, T. J. N.; Nery, M.; Neunzert, A.; Nevin, L.; Newport, J. M.; Newton, G.; Ng, K. K. Y.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nichols, D.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Noack, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; North, C.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; O'Dea, G. D.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Okada, M. A.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; Ormiston, R.; Ortega, L. F.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ossokine, S.; Ottaway, D. J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pace, A. E.; Page, J.; Page, M. A.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, Howard; Pan, Huang-Wei; Pang, B.; Pang, P. T. H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Parida, A.; Parker, W.; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patil, M.; Patricelli, B.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perez, C. J.; Perreca, A.; Perri, L. M.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pirello, M.; Pitkin, M.; Poe, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Porter, E. K.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Pratt, J. W. W.; Pratten, G.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L. G.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajan, C.; Rajbhandari, B.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramirez, K. E.; Ramos-Buades, A.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Read, J.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Ren, W.; Reyes, S. D.; Ricci, F.; Ricker, P. M.; Rieger, S.; Riles, K.; Rizzo, M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, R.; Romel, C. L.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Ross, M. P.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Rutins, G.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Sakellariadou, M.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sampson, L. M.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sanchez, L. E.; Sanchis-Gual, N.; Sandberg, V.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Scheel, M.; Scheuer, J.; Schmidt, J.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schulte, B. W.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwalbe, S. G.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Seidel, E.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaffer, T. J.; Shah, A. A.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shaner, M. B.; Shao, L.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sieniawska, M.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, B.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, R. J. E.; Somala, S.; Son, E. J.; Sonnenberg, J. A.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, A. P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staats, K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stevenson, S. P.; Stone, R.; Stops, D. J.; Strain, K. A.; Stratta, G.; Strigin, S. E.; Strunk, A.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sunil, S.; Suresh, J.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Tait, S. C.; Talbot, C.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Taracchini, A.; Tasson, J. D.; Taylor, J. A.; Taylor, R.; Tewari, S. V.; Theeg, T.; Thies, F.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toland, K.; Tonelli, M.; Tornasi, Z.; Torres-Forné, A.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trinastic, J.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tsang, K. W.; Tse, M.; Tso, R.; Tsukada, L.; Tsuna, D.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ueno, K.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Varma, V.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Venugopalan, G.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Viets, A. D.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, M.; Walet, R.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, J. Z.; Wang, W. H.; Wang, Y. F.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Watchi, J.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Wessel, E. K.; Weßels, P.; Westerweck, J.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whiting, B. F.; Whittle, C.; Wilken, D.; Williams, D.; Williams, R. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Woehler, J.; Wofford, J.; Wong, K. W. K.; Worden, J.; Wright, J. L.; Wu, D. S.; Wysocki, D. M.; Xiao, S.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yang, L.; Yap, M. J.; Yazback, M.; Yu, Hang; Yu, Haocun; Yvert, M.; Zadrożny, A.; Zanolin, M.; Zelenova, T.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, T.; Zhang, Y.-H.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, S. J.; Zhu, X. J.; Zimmerman, A. B.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.; (LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration

2017-12-01

The source of the gravitational-wave (GW) signal GW170817, very likely a binary neutron star merger, was also observed electromagnetically, providing the first multi-messenger observations of this type. The two-week-long electromagnetic (EM) counterpart had a signature indicative of an r-process-induced optical transient known as a kilonova. This Letter examines how the mass of the dynamical ejecta can be estimated without a direct electromagnetic observation of the kilonova, using GW measurements and a phenomenological model calibrated to numerical simulations of mergers with dynamical ejecta. Specifically, we apply the model to the binary masses inferred from the GW measurements, and use the resulting mass of the dynamical ejecta to estimate its contribution (without the effects of wind ejecta) to the corresponding kilonova light curves from various models. The distributions of dynamical ejecta mass range between {M}{ej}={10}-3-{10}-2 {M}⊙ for various equations of state, assuming that the neutron stars are rotating slowly. In addition, we use our estimates of the dynamical ejecta mass and the neutron star merger rates inferred from GW170817 to constrain the contribution of events like this to the r-process element abundance in the Galaxy when ejecta mass from post-merger winds is neglected. We find that if ≳10% of the matter dynamically ejected from binary neutron star (BNS) mergers is converted to r-process elements, GW170817-like BNS mergers could fully account for the amount of r-process material observed in the Milky Way.

Importance of vegetation distribution for future carbon balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlström, A.; Xia, J.; Arneth, A.; Luo, Y.; Smith, B.

2015-12-01

Projections of future terrestrial carbon uptake vary greatly between simulations. Net primary production (NPP), wild fires, vegetation dynamics (including biome shifts) and soil decomposition constitute the main processes governing the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle in a changing climate. While primary production and soil respiration are relatively well studied and implemented in all global ecosystem models used to project the future land sink of CO2, vegetation dynamics are less studied and not always represented in global models. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality and the associated turnover and proven skill in predicting vegetation distribution and succession. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the CMIP5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing at year 2085. We exchanged carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations and investigate the changes predicted by the emulator. This method allowed us to partition the entire ensemble carbon uptake uncertainty into individual processes. We found that NPP, vegetation dynamics (including biome shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33% respectively of uncertainties in modeled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation dynamics was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand dynamics (7%), reproduction (10%) and biome shifts (67%) globally. We conclude that while NPP and soil decomposition rates jointly account for 83% of future climate induced C-uptake uncertainties, vegetation turnover and structure, dominated by shifts in vegetation distribution, represent a significant fraction globally and regionally (tropical forests: 40%), strongly motivating their representation and analysis in future C-cycle studies.

Secondary Students' Dynamic Modeling Processes: Analyzing, Reasoning About, Synthesizing, and Testing Models of Stream Ecosystems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stratford, Steven J.; Krajeik, Joseph; Soloway, Elliot

This paper presents the results of a study of the cognitive strategies in which ninth-grade science students engaged as they used a learner-centered dynamic modeling tool (called Model-It) to make original models based upon stream ecosystem scenarios. The research questions were: (1) In what Cognitive Strategies for Modeling (analyzing, reasoning,…

United States Air Force Research Initiation Program for 1987. Volume 3

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-04-01

Influence of Microstructural Variations Dr. Ravinder Diwan on the Thermomechanical Processing in Dynamic Material Modeling of Titanium Aluminides , 760,7MG...7MG-077 INFLUENCE OF MICROSTRUCTURAL VARIATIONS ON THE THERMOMECHANICAL PROCESSING IN DYNAMIC MATERIAL MODELING OF TITANIUM ALUMINIDES MARCH 15, 1989...provided on this project. Final Report Submitted: March 15, 1989. 75-1 ABSTRACT Titanium aluminides with strong thermodynamically stable intermetallic phases

A system dynamic model to estimate hydrological processes and water use in a eucalypt plantation

Treesearch

Ying Ouyang; Daping Xu; Ted Leininger; Ningnan Zhang

2016-01-01

Eucalypts have been identified as one of the best feedstocks for bioenergy production due to theirfast-growth rate and coppicing ability. However, their water use efficiency along with the adverse envi-ronmental impacts is still a controversial issue. In this study, a system dynamic model was developed toestimate the hydrological processes and water use in a eucalyptus...

CADLIVE toolbox for MATLAB: automatic dynamic modeling of biochemical networks with comprehensive system analysis.

PubMed

Inoue, Kentaro; Maeda, Kazuhiro; Miyabe, Takaaki; Matsuoka, Yu; Kurata, Hiroyuki

2014-09-01

Mathematical modeling has become a standard technique to understand the dynamics of complex biochemical systems. To promote the modeling, we had developed the CADLIVE dynamic simulator that automatically converted a biochemical map into its associated mathematical model, simulated its dynamic behaviors and analyzed its robustness. To enhance the feasibility by CADLIVE and extend its functions, we propose the CADLIVE toolbox available for MATLAB, which implements not only the existing functions of the CADLIVE dynamic simulator, but also the latest tools including global parameter search methods with robustness analysis. The seamless, bottom-up processes consisting of biochemical network construction, automatic construction of its dynamic model, simulation, optimization, and S-system analysis greatly facilitate dynamic modeling, contributing to the research of systems biology and synthetic biology. This application can be freely downloaded from http://www.cadlive.jp/CADLIVE_MATLAB/ together with an instruction.

Use of simulated satellite radiances from a mesoscale numerical model to understand kinematic and dynamic processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalb, Michael; Robertson, Franklin; Jedlovec, Gary; Perkey, Donald

1987-01-01

Techniques by which mesoscale numerical weather prediction model output and radiative transfer codes are combined to simulate the radiance fields that a given passive temperature/moisture satellite sensor would see if viewing the evolving model atmosphere are introduced. The goals are to diagnose the dynamical atmospheric processes responsible for recurring patterns in observed satellite radiance fields, and to develop techniques to anticipate the ability of satellite sensor systems to depict atmospheric structures and provide information useful for numerical weather prediction (NWP). The concept of linking radiative transfer and dynamical NWP codes is demonstrated with time sequences of simulated radiance imagery in the 24 TIROS vertical sounder channels derived from model integrations for March 6, 1982.

Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models

DOE PAGES

Luo, Yiqi; Ahlstrom, Anders; Allison, Steven D.; ...

2016-01-21

Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs), and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the third to fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe themore » environmental conditions that soils experience. First, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by first-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Second, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool-and flux-based data sets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Third, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. Furthermore, we recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable data sets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and prescribe forcing fields.« less

Drivers of dissolved organic carbon export in a subarctic catchment: Importance of microbial decomposition, sorption-desorption, peatland and lateral flow.

PubMed

Tang, Jing; Yurova, Alla Y; Schurgers, Guy; Miller, Paul A; Olin, Stefan; Smith, Benjamin; Siewert, Matthias B; Olefeldt, David; Pilesjö, Petter; Poska, Anneli

2018-05-01

Tundra soils account for 50% of global stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC), and it is expected that the amplified climate warming in high latitude could cause loss of this SOC through decomposition. Decomposed SOC could become hydrologically accessible, which increase downstream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export and subsequent carbon release to the atmosphere, constituting a positive feedback to climate warming. However, DOC export is often neglected in ecosystem models. In this paper, we incorporate processes related to DOC production, mineralization, diffusion, sorption-desorption, and leaching into a customized arctic version of the dynamic ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS in order to mechanistically model catchment DOC export, and to link this flux to other ecosystem processes. The extended LPJ-GUESS is compared to observed DOC export at Stordalen catchment in northern Sweden. Vegetation communities include flood-tolerant graminoids (Eriophorum) and Sphagnum moss, birch forest and dwarf shrub communities. The processes, sorption-desorption and microbial decomposition (DOC production and mineralization) are found to contribute most to the variance in DOC export based on a detailed variance-based Sobol sensitivity analysis (SA) at grid cell-level. Catchment-level SA shows that the highest mean DOC exports come from the Eriophorum peatland (fen). A comparison with observations shows that the model captures the seasonality of DOC fluxes. Two catchment simulations, one without water lateral routing and one without peatland processes, were compared with the catchment simulations with all processes. The comparison showed that the current implementation of catchment lateral flow and peatland processes in LPJ-GUESS are essential to capture catchment-level DOC dynamics and indicate the model is at an appropriate level of complexity to represent the main mechanism of DOC dynamics in soils. The extended model provides a new tool to investigate potential interactions among climate change, vegetation dynamics, soil hydrology and DOC dynamics at both stand-alone to catchment scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling thermal dynamics of active layer soils and near-surface permafrost using a fully coupled water and heat transport model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jiang, Yueyang; Zhuang, Qianlai; O'Donnell, Jonathan A.

2012-01-01

Thawing and freezing processes are key components in permafrost dynamics, and these processes play an important role in regulating the hydrological and carbon cycles in the northern high latitudes. In the present study, we apply a well-developed soil thermal model that fully couples heat and water transport, to simulate the thawing and freezing processes at daily time steps across multiple sites that vary with vegetation cover, disturbance history, and climate. The model performance was evaluated by comparing modeled and measured soil temperatures at different depths. We use the model to explore the influence of climate, fire disturbance, and topography (north- and south-facing slopes) on soil thermal dynamics. Modeled soil temperatures agree well with measured values for both boreal forest and tundra ecosystems at the site level. Combustion of organic-soil horizons during wildfire alters the surface energy balance and increases the downward heat flux through the soil profile, resulting in the warming and thawing of near-surface permafrost. A projection of 21st century permafrost dynamics indicates that as the climate warms, active layer thickness will likely increase to more than 3 meters in the boreal forest site and deeper than one meter in the tundra site. Results from this coupled heat-water modeling approach represent faster thaw rates than previously simulated in other studies. We conclude that the discussed soil thermal model is able to well simulate the permafrost dynamics and could be used as a tool to analyze the influence of climate change and wildfire disturbance on permafrost thawing.

Stochastic dynamics of melt ponds and sea ice-albedo climate feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudakov, Ivan

Evolution of melt ponds on the Arctic sea surface is a complicated stochastic process. We suggest a low-order model with ice-albedo feedback which describes stochastic dynamics of melt ponds geometrical characteristics. The model is a stochastic dynamical system model of energy balance in the climate system. We describe the equilibria in this model. We conclude the transition in fractal dimension of melt ponds affects the shape of the sea ice albedo curve.

Occupant-vehicle dynamics and the role of the internal model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, David J.

2018-05-01

With the increasing need to reduce time and cost of vehicle development there is increasing advantage in simulating mathematically the dynamic interaction of a vehicle and its occupant. The larger design space arising from the introduction of automated vehicles further increases the potential advantage. The aim of the paper is to outline the role of the internal model hypothesis in understanding and modelling occupant-vehicle dynamics, specifically the dynamics associated with direction and speed control of the vehicle. The internal model is the driver's or passenger's understanding of the vehicle dynamics and is thought to be employed in the perception, cognition and action processes of the brain. The internal model aids the estimation of the states of the vehicle from noisy sensory measurements. It can also be used to optimise cognitive control action by predicting the consequence of the action; thus model predictive control (MPC) theory provides a foundation for modelling the cognition process. The stretch reflex of the neuromuscular system also makes use of the prediction of the internal model. Extensions to the MPC approach are described which account for: interaction with an automated vehicle; robust control; intermittent control; and cognitive workload. Further work to extend understanding of occupant-vehicle dynamic interaction is outlined. This paper is based on a keynote presentation given by the author to the 13th International Symposium on Advanced Vehicle Control (AVEC) conference held in Munich, September 2016.

A Process for the Creation of T-MATS Propulsion System Models from NPSS data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, Jeffryes W.; Lavelle, Thomas M.; Litt, Jonathan S.; Guo, Ten-Huei

2014-01-01

A modular thermodynamic simulation package called the Toolbox for the Modeling and Analysis of Thermodynamic Systems (T-MATS) has been developed for the creation of dynamic simulations. The T-MATS software is designed as a plug-in for Simulink (Math Works, Inc.) and allows a developer to create system simulations of thermodynamic plants (such as gas turbines) and controllers in a single tool. Creation of such simulations can be accomplished by matching data from actual systems, or by matching data from steady state models and inserting appropriate dynamics, such as the rotor and actuator dynamics for an aircraft engine. This paper summarizes the process for creating T-MATS turbo-machinery simulations using data and input files obtained from a steady state model created in the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). The NPSS is a thermodynamic simulation environment that is commonly used for steady state gas turbine performance analysis. Completion of all the steps involved in the process results in a good match between T-MATS and NPSS at several steady state operating points. Additionally, the T-MATS model extended to run dynamically provides the possibility of simulating and evaluating closed loop responses.

A Process for the Creation of T-MATS Propulsion System Models from NPSS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, Jeffryes W.; Lavelle, Thomas M.; Litt, Jonathan S.; Guo, Ten-Huei

2014-01-01

A modular thermodynamic simulation package called the Toolbox for the Modeling and Analysis of Thermodynamic Systems (T-MATS) has been developed for the creation of dynamic simulations. The T-MATS software is designed as a plug-in for Simulink(Trademark) and allows a developer to create system simulations of thermodynamic plants (such as gas turbines) and controllers in a single tool. Creation of such simulations can be accomplished by matching data from actual systems, or by matching data from steady state models and inserting appropriate dynamics, such as the rotor and actuator dynamics for an aircraft engine. This paper summarizes the process for creating T-MATS turbo-machinery simulations using data and input files obtained from a steady state model created in the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). The NPSS is a thermodynamic simulation environment that is commonly used for steady state gas turbine performance analysis. Completion of all the steps involved in the process results in a good match between T-MATS and NPSS at several steady state operating points. Additionally, the T-MATS model extended to run dynamically provides the possibility of simulating and evaluating closed loop responses.

A Process for the Creation of T-MATS Propulsion System Models from NPSS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, Jeffryes W.; Lavelle, Thomas M.; Litt, Jonathan S.; Guo, Ten-Huei

2014-01-01

A modular thermodynamic simulation package called the Toolbox for the Modeling and Analysis of Thermodynamic Systems (T-MATS) has been developed for the creation of dynamic simulations. The T-MATS software is designed as a plug-in for Simulink(Registered TradeMark) and allows a developer to create system simulations of thermodynamic plants (such as gas turbines) and controllers in a single tool. Creation of such simulations can be accomplished by matching data from actual systems, or by matching data from steady state models and inserting appropriate dynamics, such as the rotor and actuator dynamics for an aircraft engine. This paper summarizes the process for creating T-MATS turbo-machinery simulations using data and input files obtained from a steady state model created in the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). The NPSS is a thermodynamic simulation environment that is commonly used for steady state gas turbine performance analysis. Completion of all the steps involved in the process results in a good match between T-MATS and NPSS at several steady state operating points. Additionally, the T-MATS model extended to run dynamically provides the possibility of simulating and evaluating closed loop responses.

The co-development of looking dynamics and discrimination performance

PubMed Central

Perone, Sammy; Spencer, John P.

2015-01-01

The study of looking dynamics and discrimination form the backbone of developmental science and are central processes in theories of infant cognition. Looking dynamics and discrimination change dramatically across the first year of life. Surprisingly, developmental changes in looking and discrimination have not been studied together. Recent simulations of a dynamic neural field (DNF) model of infant looking and memory suggest that looking and discrimination do change together over development and arise from a single neurodevelopmental mechanism. We probe this claim by measuring looking dynamics and discrimination along continuous, metrically organized dimensions in 5-, 7, and 10-month-old infants (N = 119). The results showed that looking dynamics and discrimination changed together over development and are linked within individuals. Quantitative simulations of a DNF model provide insights into the processes that underlie developmental change in looking dynamics and discrimination. Simulation results support the view that these changes might arise from a single neurodevelopmental mechanism. PMID:23957821

Dynamic Computation of Change Operations in Version Management of Business Process Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Küster, Jochen Malte; Gerth, Christian; Engels, Gregor

Version management of business process models requires that changes can be resolved by applying change operations. In order to give a user maximal freedom concerning the application order of change operations, position parameters of change operations must be computed dynamically during change resolution. In such an approach, change operations with computed position parameters must be applicable on the model and dependencies and conflicts of change operations must be taken into account because otherwise invalid models can be constructed. In this paper, we study the concept of partially specified change operations where parameters are computed dynamically. We provide a formalization for partially specified change operations using graph transformation and provide a concept for their applicability. Based on this, we study potential dependencies and conflicts of change operations and show how these can be taken into account within change resolution. Using our approach, a user can resolve changes of business process models without being unnecessarily restricted to a certain order.

Modelling fungal growth in heterogeneous soil: analyses of the effect of soil physical structure on fungal community dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falconer, R.; Radoslow, P.; Grinev, D.; Otten, W.

2009-04-01

Fungi play a pivital role in soil ecosystems contributing to plant productivity. The underlying soil physical and biological processes responsible for community dynamics are interrelated and, at present, poorly understood. If these complex processes can be understood then this knowledge can be managed with an aim to providing more sustainable agriculture. Our understanding of microbial dynamics in soil has long been hampered by a lack of a theoretical framework and difficulties in observation and quantification. We will demonstrate how the spatial and temporal dynamics of fungi in soil can be understood by linking mathematical modelling with novel techniques that visualise the complex structure of the soil. The combination of these techniques and mathematical models opens up new possibilities to understand how the physical structure of soil affects fungal colony dynamics and also how fungal dynamics affect soil structure. We will quantify, using X ray tomography, soil structure for a range of artificially prepared microcosms. We characterise the soil structures using soil metrics such as porosity, fractal dimension, and the connectivity of the pore volume. Furthermore we will use the individual based fungal colony growth model of Falconer et al. 2005, which is based on the physiological processes of fungi, to assess the effect of soil structure on microbial dynamics by qualifying biomass abundances and distributions. We demonstrate how soil structure can critically affect fungal species interactions with consequences for biological control and fungal biodiversity.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wohl, Ellen; Hall, Robert O.; Lininger, Katherine B.

Research in stream metabolism, gas exchange, and sediment dynamics indicates that rivers are an active component of the global carbon cycle and that river form and process can influence partitioning of terrestrially derived carbon among the atmosphere, geosphere, and ocean. Here we develop a conceptual model of carbon dynamics (inputs, outputs, and storage of organic carbon) within a river corridor, which includes the active channel and the riparian zone. The exchange of carbon from the channel to the riparian zone represents potential for storage of transported carbon not included in the “active pipe” model of organic carbon (OC) dynamics inmore » freshwater systems. The active pipe model recognizes that river processes influence carbon dynamics, but focuses on CO2 emissions from the channel and eventual delivery to the ocean. We also review how human activities directly and indirectly alter carbon dynamics within river corridors. We propose that dams create the most significant alteration of carbon dynamics within a channel, but that alteration of riparian zones, including the reduction of lateral connectivity between the channel and riparian zone, constitutes the most substantial change of carbon dynamics in river corridors. We argue that the morphology and processes of a river corridor regulate the ability to store, transform, and transport OC, and that people are pervasive modifiers of river morphology and processes. The net effect of most human activities, with the notable exception of reservoir construction, appears to be that of reducing the ability of river corridors to store OC within biota and sediment, which effectively converts river corridors to OC sources rather than OC sinks. We conclude by summarizing knowledge gaps in OC dynamics and the implications of our findings for managing OC dynamics within river corridors.« less

Software life cycle dynamic simulation model: The organizational performance submodel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tausworthe, Robert C.

1985-01-01

The submodel structure of a software life cycle dynamic simulation model is described. The software process is divided into seven phases, each with product, staff, and funding flows. The model is subdivided into an organizational response submodel, a management submodel, a management influence interface, and a model analyst interface. The concentration here is on the organizational response model, which simulates the performance characteristics of a software development subject to external and internal influences. These influences emanate from two sources: the model analyst interface, which configures the model to simulate the response of an implementing organization subject to its own internal influences, and the management submodel that exerts external dynamic control over the production process. A complete characterization is given of the organizational response submodel in the form of parameterized differential equations governing product, staffing, and funding levels. The parameter values and functions are allocated to the two interfaces.

Estimating drought induced tree mortality in the Amazon rainforest: A simulation study with a focus on plant hydraulic processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papastefanou, P.; Fleischer, K.; Hickler, T.; Grams, T.; Lapola, D.; Quesada, C. A.; Zang, C.; Rammig, A.

2017-12-01

The Amazon basin was recently hit by severe drought events that were unprecedented in their severity and spatial extent, e.g. during 2005, 2010 and 2015/2016. Significant amounts of biomass were lost, turning large parts of the rainforest from a carbon sink into a carbon source. It is assumed that drought-induced tree mortality from hydraulic failure played an important role during these events and may become more frequent in the Amazon region in the future. Many state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation models do not include plant hydraulic processes and fail to reproduce observed rainforest responses to drought events, such as e.g. increased tree mortality. We address this research gap by developing a simple plant-hydraulic module for the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. This plant-hydraulic module uses leaf water potential and cavitation as baseline processes to simulate tree mortality under drought stress. Furthermore, we introduce different plant strategies in the model, which describe e.g. differences in the stomatal regulation under drought stress. To parameterize and evaluate our hydraulic module, we use a set of available observational data from the Amazon region. We apply our model to the Amazon Basin and highlight similarities and differences across other measured and predicted drought responses, e.g. extrapolated observations and data derived from satellite measurements. Our results highlight the importance of including plant hydraulic processes in dynamic vegetation models to correctly predict vegetation dynamics under drought stress and show major differences on the vegetation dynamics depending on the selected plant strategies. We also identify gaps in process understanding of the triggering factors, the extent and the consequences of drought responses that hampers our ability to predict potential impact of future drought events on the Amazon rainforest.

Model and system learners, optimal process constructors and kinetic theory-based goal-oriented design: A new paradigm in materials and processes informatics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abisset-Chavanne, Emmanuelle; Duval, Jean Louis; Cueto, Elias; Chinesta, Francisco

2018-05-01

Traditionally, Simulation-Based Engineering Sciences (SBES) has relied on the use of static data inputs (model parameters, initial or boundary conditions, … obtained from adequate experiments) to perform simulations. A new paradigm in the field of Applied Sciences and Engineering has emerged in the last decade. Dynamic Data-Driven Application Systems [9, 10, 11, 12, 22] allow the linkage of simulation tools with measurement devices for real-time control of simulations and applications, entailing the ability to dynamically incorporate additional data into an executing application, and in reverse, the ability of an application to dynamically steer the measurement process. It is in that context that traditional "digital-twins" are giving raise to a new generation of goal-oriented data-driven application systems, also known as "hybrid-twins", embracing models based on physics and models exclusively based on data adequately collected and assimilated for filling the gap between usual model predictions and measurements. Within this framework new methodologies based on model learners, machine learning and kinetic goal-oriented design are defining a new paradigm in materials, processes and systems engineering.

Dawn Orbit Determination Team: Trajectory Modeling and Reconstruction Processes at Vesta

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abrahamson, Matthew J.; Ardito, Alessandro; Han, Dongsuk; Haw, Robert; Kennedy, Brian; Mastrodemos, Nick; Nandi, Sumita; Park, Ryan; Rush, Brian; Vaughan, Andrew

2013-01-01

The Dawn spacecraft spent over a year in orbit around Vesta from July 2011 through August 2012. In order to maintain the designated science reference orbits and enable the transfers between those orbits, precise and timely orbit determination was required. Challenges included low-thrust ion propulsion modeling, estimation of relatively unknown Vesta gravity and rotation models, track-ing data limitations, incorporation of real-time telemetry into dynamics model updates, and rapid maneuver design cycles during transfers. This paper discusses the dynamics models, filter configuration, and data processing implemented to deliver a rapid orbit determination capability to the Dawn project.

A non-linear model of economic production processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

2003-06-01

We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

The Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mora, P.; Muhlhaus, H.; Lister, G.; Dyskin, A.; Place, D.; Appelbe, B.; Nimmervoll, N.; Abramson, D.

2001-12-01

Numerical simulation of the physics and dynamics of the entire earth system offers an outstanding opportunity for advancing earth system science and technology but represents a major challenge due to the range of scales and physical processes involved, as well as the magnitude of the software engineering effort required. However, new simulation and computer technologies are bringing this objective within reach. Under a special competitive national funding scheme to establish new Major National Research Facilities (MNRF), the Australian government together with a consortium of Universities and research institutions have funded construction of the Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator (ACcESS). The Simulator or computational virtual earth will provide the research infrastructure to the Australian earth systems science community required for simulations of dynamical earth processes at scales ranging from microscopic to global. It will consist of thematic supercomputer infrastructure and an earth systems simulation software system. The Simulator models and software will be constructed over a five year period by a multi-disciplinary team of computational scientists, mathematicians, earth scientists, civil engineers and software engineers. The construction team will integrate numerical simulation models (3D discrete elements/lattice solid model, particle-in-cell large deformation finite-element method, stress reconstruction models, multi-scale continuum models etc) with geophysical, geological and tectonic models, through advanced software engineering and visualization technologies. When fully constructed, the Simulator aims to provide the software and hardware infrastructure needed to model solid earth phenomena including global scale dynamics and mineralisation processes, crustal scale processes including plate tectonics, mountain building, interacting fault system dynamics, and micro-scale processes that control the geological, physical and dynamic behaviour of earth systems. ACcESS represents a part of Australia's contribution to the APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation (ACES) international initiative. Together with other national earth systems science initiatives including the Japanese Earth Simulator and US General Earthquake Model projects, ACcESS aims to provide a driver for scientific advancement and technological breakthroughs including: quantum leaps in understanding of earth evolution at global, crustal, regional and microscopic scales; new knowledge of the physics of crustal fault systems required to underpin the grand challenge of earthquake prediction; new understanding and predictive capabilities of geological processes such as tectonics and mineralisation.

A Dynamic Theory of Reading.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wark, David M.

The initial means for arriving at a dynamic model of reading were suggested in the form of "behaviormetric" research. A review of valid reading models noted those of Smith and Carrigan, Delacato, and Holmes as eminent, and it distinguished between models based on concrete evidence and metaphors of the reading process which are basically…

Ecological Dynamics as a Theoretical Framework for Development of Sustainable Behaviours towards the Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brymer, Eric; Davids, Keith

2013-01-01

This paper proposes how the theoretical framework of ecological dynamics can provide an influential model of the learner and the learning process to pre-empt effective behaviour changes. Here we argue that ecological dynamics supports a well-established model of the learner ideally suited to the environmental education context because of its…

Translational systems biology using an agent-based approach for dynamic knowledge representation: An evolutionary paradigm for biomedical research.

PubMed

An, Gary C

2010-01-01

The greatest challenge facing the biomedical research community is the effective translation of basic mechanistic knowledge into clinically effective therapeutics. This challenge is most evident in attempts to understand and modulate "systems" processes/disorders, such as sepsis, cancer, and wound healing. Formulating an investigatory strategy for these issues requires the recognition that these are dynamic processes. Representation of the dynamic behavior of biological systems can aid in the investigation of complex pathophysiological processes by augmenting existing discovery procedures by integrating disparate information sources and knowledge. This approach is termed Translational Systems Biology. Focusing on the development of computational models capturing the behavior of mechanistic hypotheses provides a tool that bridges gaps in the understanding of a disease process by visualizing "thought experiments" to fill those gaps. Agent-based modeling is a computational method particularly well suited to the translation of mechanistic knowledge into a computational framework. Utilizing agent-based models as a means of dynamic hypothesis representation will be a vital means of describing, communicating, and integrating community-wide knowledge. The transparent representation of hypotheses in this dynamic fashion can form the basis of "knowledge ecologies," where selection between competing hypotheses will apply an evolutionary paradigm to the development of community knowledge.

Inter-species competition-facilitation in stochastic riparian vegetation dynamics.

PubMed

Tealdi, Stefano; Camporeale, Carlo; Ridolfi, Luca

2013-02-07

Riparian vegetation is a highly dynamic community that lives on river banks and which depends to a great extent on the fluvial hydrology. The stochasticity of the discharge and erosion/deposition processes in fact play a key role in determining the distribution of vegetation along a riparian transect. These abiotic processes interact with biotic competition/facilitation mechanisms, such as plant competition for light, water, and nutrients. In this work, we focus on the dynamics of plants characterized by three components: (1) stochastic forcing due to river discharges, (2) competition for resources, and (3) inter-species facilitation due to the interplay between vegetation and fluid dynamics processes. A minimalist stochastic bio-hydrological model is proposed for the dynamics of the biomass of two vegetation species: one species is assumed dominant and slow-growing, the other is subdominant, but fast-growing. The stochastic model is solved analytically and the probability density function of the plant biomasses is obtained as a function of both the hydrologic and biologic parameters. The impact of the competition/facilitation processes on the distribution of vegetation species along the riparian transect is investigated and remarkable effects are observed. Finally, a good qualitative agreement is found between the model results and field data. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling of larch forest dynamics under a changing climate in eastern Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakai, T.; Kumagai, T.; Iijima, Y.; Ohta, T.; Kotani, A.; Maximov, T. C.; Hiyama, T.

2017-12-01

According to the projection by an earth system model under RCP8.5 scenario, boreal forest in eastern Siberia (near Yakutsk) is predicted to experience significant changes in climate, in which the mean annual air temperature is projected to be positive and the annual precipitation will be doubled by the end of 21st century. Since the forest in this region is underlain by continuous permafrost, both increasing temperature and precipitation can affect the dynamics of forest through the soil water processes. To investigate such effects, we adopted a newly developed terrestrial ecosystem dynamics model named S-TEDy (SEIB-DGVM-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics model), which mechanistically simulates "the way of life" of each individual tree and resulting tree mortality under the future climate conditions. This model was first developed for the simulation of the dynamics of a tropical rainforest in the Borneo Island, and successfully reproduced higher mortality of large trees due to a prolonged drought induced by ENSO event of 1997-1998. To apply this model to a larch forest in eastern Siberia, we are developing a soil submodel to consider the effect of thawing-freezing processes. We will present a simulation results using the future climate projection.

The Mathematics of Psychotherapy: A Nonlinear Model of Change Dynamics.

PubMed

Schiepek, Gunter; Aas, Benjamin; Viol, Kathrin

2016-07-01

Psychotherapy is a dynamic process produced by a complex system of interacting variables. Even though there are qualitative models of such systems the link between structure and function, between network and network dynamics is still missing. The aim of this study is to realize these links. The proposed model is composed of five state variables (P: problem severity, S: success and therapeutic progress, M: motivation to change, E: emotions, I: insight and new perspectives) interconnected by 16 functions. The shape of each function is modified by four parameters (a: capability to form a trustful working alliance, c: mentalization and emotion regulation, r: behavioral resources and skills, m: self-efficacy and reward expectation). Psychologically, the parameters play the role of competencies or traits, which translate into the concept of control parameters in synergetics. The qualitative model was transferred into five coupled, deterministic, nonlinear difference equations generating the dynamics of each variable as a function of other variables. The mathematical model is able to reproduce important features of psychotherapy processes. Examples of parameter-dependent bifurcation diagrams are given. Beyond the illustrated similarities between simulated and empirical dynamics, the model has to be further developed, systematically tested by simulated experiments, and compared to empirical data.

Building a kinetic Monte Carlo model with a chosen accuracy.

PubMed

Bhute, Vijesh J; Chatterjee, Abhijit

2013-06-28

The kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) method is a popular modeling approach for reaching large materials length and time scales. The KMC dynamics is erroneous when atomic processes that are relevant to the dynamics are missing from the KMC model. Recently, we had developed for the first time an error measure for KMC in Bhute and Chatterjee [J. Chem. Phys. 138, 084103 (2013)]. The error measure, which is given in terms of the probability that a missing process will be selected in the correct dynamics, requires estimation of the missing rate. In this work, we present an improved procedure for estimating the missing rate. The estimate found using the new procedure is within an order of magnitude of the correct missing rate, unlike our previous approach where the estimate was larger by orders of magnitude. This enables one to find the error in the KMC model more accurately. In addition, we find the time for which the KMC model can be used before a maximum error in the dynamics has been reached.

A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: A first step towards ecological modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

2015-01-01

In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: a first step towards ecological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

2015-06-01

In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. Part 2: Theoretical development of a dynamic model and application to rain fade durations and tolerable control delays for fade countermeasures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manning, Robert M.

1987-01-01

A dynamic rain attenuation prediction model is developed for use in obtaining the temporal characteristics, on time scales of minutes or hours, of satellite communication link availability. Analagous to the associated static rain attenuation model, which yields yearly attenuation predictions, this dynamic model is applicable at any location in the world that is characterized by the static rain attenuation statistics peculiar to the geometry of the satellite link and the rain statistics of the location. Such statistics are calculated by employing the formalism of Part I of this report. In fact, the dynamic model presented here is an extension of the static model and reduces to the static model in the appropriate limit. By assuming that rain attenuation is dynamically described by a first-order stochastic differential equation in time and that this random attenuation process is a Markov process, an expression for the associated transition probability is obtained by solving the related forward Kolmogorov equation. This transition probability is then used to obtain such temporal rain attenuation statistics as attenuation durations and allowable attenuation margins versus control system delay.

Clinical time series prediction: towards a hierarchical dynamical system framework

PubMed Central

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2014-01-01

Objective Developing machine learning and data mining algorithms for building temporal models of clinical time series is important for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, effect of various patient management interventions and clinical decision making. In this work, we propose and develop a novel hierarchical framework for modeling clinical time series data of varied length and with irregularly sampled observations. Materials and methods Our hierarchical dynamical system framework for modeling clinical time series combines advantages of the two temporal modeling approaches: the linear dynamical system and the Gaussian process. We model the irregularly sampled clinical time series by using multiple Gaussian process sequences in the lower level of our hierarchical framework and capture the transitions between Gaussian processes by utilizing the linear dynamical system. The experiments are conducted on the complete blood count (CBC) panel data of 1000 post-surgical cardiac patients during their hospitalization. Our framework is evaluated and compared to multiple baseline approaches in terms of the mean absolute prediction error and the absolute percentage error. Results We tested our framework by first learning the time series model from data for the patient in the training set, and then applying the model in order to predict future time series values on the patients in the test set. We show that our model outperforms multiple existing models in terms of its predictive accuracy. Our method achieved a 3.13% average prediction accuracy improvement on ten CBC lab time series when it was compared against the best performing baseline. A 5.25% average accuracy improvement was observed when only short-term predictions were considered. Conclusion A new hierarchical dynamical system framework that lets us model irregularly sampled time series data is a promising new direction for modeling clinical time series and for improving their predictive performance. PMID:25534671

Identifying Hydrogeological Controls of Catchment Low-Flow Dynamics Using Physically Based Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cochand, F.; Carlier, C.; Staudinger, M.; Seibert, J.; Hunkeler, D.; Brunner, P.

2017-12-01

Identifying key catchment characteristics and processes which control the hydrological response under low-flow conditions is important to assess the catchments' vulnerability to dry periods. In the context of a Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) project, the low-flow behaviours of two mountainous catchments were investigated. These neighboring catchments are characterized by the same meteorological conditions, but feature completely different river flow dynamics. The Roethenbach is characterized by high peak flows and low mean flows. Conversely, the Langete is characterized by relatively low peak flows and high mean flow rates. To understand the fundamentally different behaviour of the two catchments, a physically-based surface-subsurface flow HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model for each catchment was developed. The main advantage of a physically-based model is its ability to realistically reproduce processes which play a key role during low-flow periods such as surface-subsurface interactions or evapotranspiration. Both models were calibrated to reproduce measured groundwater heads and the surface flow dynamics. Subsequently, the calibrated models were used to explore the fundamental physics that control hydrological processes during low-flow periods. To achieve this, a comparative sensitivity analysis of model parameters of both catchments was carried out. Results show that the hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock (and weathered bedrock) controls the catchment water dynamics in both models. Conversely, the properties of other geological formations such as alluvial aquifer or soil layer hydraulic conductivity or porosity play a less important role. These results change significantly our perception of the streamflow catchment dynamics and more specifically the way to assess catchment vulnerability to dry period. This study suggests that by analysing catchment scale bedrock properties, the catchment dynamics and the vulnerability to dry period may be assessed.

Understanding Dynamic Model Validation of a Wind Turbine Generator and a Wind Power Plant: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muljadi, Eduard; Zhang, Ying Chen; Gevorgian, Vahan

Regional reliability organizations require power plants to validate the dynamic models that represent them to ensure that power systems studies are performed to the best representation of the components installed. In the process of validating a wind power plant (WPP), one must be cognizant of the parameter settings of the wind turbine generators (WTGs) and the operational settings of the WPP. Validating the dynamic model of a WPP is required to be performed periodically. This is because the control parameters of the WTGs and the other supporting components within a WPP may be modified to comply with new grid codesmore » or upgrades to the WTG controller with new capabilities developed by the turbine manufacturers or requested by the plant owners or operators. The diversity within a WPP affects the way we represent it in a model. Diversity within a WPP may be found in the way the WTGs are controlled, the wind resource, the layout of the WPP (electrical diversity), and the type of WTGs used. Each group of WTGs constitutes a significant portion of the output power of the WPP, and their unique and salient behaviors should be represented individually. The objective of this paper is to illustrate the process of dynamic model validations of WTGs and WPPs, the available data recorded that must be screened before it is used for the dynamic validations, and the assumptions made in the dynamic models of the WTG and WPP that must be understood. Without understanding the correct process, the validations may lead to the wrong representations of the WTG and WPP modeled.« less

Systemic Case Formulation, Individualized Process Monitoring, and State Dynamics in a Case of Dissociative Identity Disorder.

PubMed

Schiepek, Günter K; Stöger-Schmidinger, Barbara; Aichhorn, Wolfgang; Schöller, Helmut; Aas, Benjamin

2016-01-01

Objective: The aim of this case report is to demonstrate the feasibility of a systemic procedure (synergetic process management) including modeling of the idiographic psychological system and continuous high-frequency monitoring of change dynamics in a case of dissociative identity disorder. The psychotherapy was realized in a day treatment center with a female client diagnosed with borderline personality disorder (BPD) and dissociative identity disorder. Methods: A three hour long co-creative session at the beginning of the treatment period allowed for modeling the systemic network of the client's dynamics of cognitions, emotions, and behavior. The components (variables) of this idiographic system model (ISM) were used to create items for an individualized process questionnaire for the client. The questionnaire was administered daily through an internet-based monitoring tool (Synergetic Navigation System, SNS), to capture the client's individual change process continuously throughout the therapy and after-care period. The resulting time series were reflected by therapist and client in therapeutic feedback sessions. Results: For the client it was important to see how the personality states dominating her daily life were represented by her idiographic system model and how the transitions between each state could be explained and understood by the activating and inhibiting relations between the cognitive-emotional components of that system. Continuous monitoring of her cognitions, emotions, and behavior via SNS allowed for identification of important triggers, dynamic patterns, and psychological mechanisms behind seemingly erratic state fluctuations. These insights enabled a change in management of the dynamics and an intensified trauma-focused therapy. Conclusion: By making use of the systemic case formulation technique and subsequent daily online monitoring, client and therapist continuously refer to detailed visualizations of the mental and behavioral network and its dynamics (e.g., order transitions). Effects on self-related information processing, on identity development, and toward a more pronounced autonomy in life (instead of feeling helpless against the chaoticity of state dynamics) were evident in the presented case and documented by the monitoring system.

Self-Organization of Spatio-Temporal Hierarchy via Learning of Dynamic Visual Image Patterns on Action Sequences

PubMed Central

Jung, Minju; Hwang, Jungsik; Tani, Jun

2015-01-01

It is well known that the visual cortex efficiently processes high-dimensional spatial information by using a hierarchical structure. Recently, computational models that were inspired by the spatial hierarchy of the visual cortex have shown remarkable performance in image recognition. Up to now, however, most biological and computational modeling studies have mainly focused on the spatial domain and do not discuss temporal domain processing of the visual cortex. Several studies on the visual cortex and other brain areas associated with motor control support that the brain also uses its hierarchical structure as a processing mechanism for temporal information. Based on the success of previous computational models using spatial hierarchy and temporal hierarchy observed in the brain, the current report introduces a novel neural network model for the recognition of dynamic visual image patterns based solely on the learning of exemplars. This model is characterized by the application of both spatial and temporal constraints on local neural activities, resulting in the self-organization of a spatio-temporal hierarchy necessary for the recognition of complex dynamic visual image patterns. The evaluation with the Weizmann dataset in recognition of a set of prototypical human movement patterns showed that the proposed model is significantly robust in recognizing dynamically occluded visual patterns compared to other baseline models. Furthermore, an evaluation test for the recognition of concatenated sequences of those prototypical movement patterns indicated that the model is endowed with a remarkable capability for the contextual recognition of long-range dynamic visual image patterns. PMID:26147887

Self-Organization of Spatio-Temporal Hierarchy via Learning of Dynamic Visual Image Patterns on Action Sequences.

PubMed

Jung, Minju; Hwang, Jungsik; Tani, Jun

2015-01-01

It is well known that the visual cortex efficiently processes high-dimensional spatial information by using a hierarchical structure. Recently, computational models that were inspired by the spatial hierarchy of the visual cortex have shown remarkable performance in image recognition. Up to now, however, most biological and computational modeling studies have mainly focused on the spatial domain and do not discuss temporal domain processing of the visual cortex. Several studies on the visual cortex and other brain areas associated with motor control support that the brain also uses its hierarchical structure as a processing mechanism for temporal information. Based on the success of previous computational models using spatial hierarchy and temporal hierarchy observed in the brain, the current report introduces a novel neural network model for the recognition of dynamic visual image patterns based solely on the learning of exemplars. This model is characterized by the application of both spatial and temporal constraints on local neural activities, resulting in the self-organization of a spatio-temporal hierarchy necessary for the recognition of complex dynamic visual image patterns. The evaluation with the Weizmann dataset in recognition of a set of prototypical human movement patterns showed that the proposed model is significantly robust in recognizing dynamically occluded visual patterns compared to other baseline models. Furthermore, an evaluation test for the recognition of concatenated sequences of those prototypical movement patterns indicated that the model is endowed with a remarkable capability for the contextual recognition of long-range dynamic visual image patterns.

Gaussian process inference for estimating pharmacokinetic parameters of dynamic contrast-enhanced MR images.

PubMed

Wang, Shijun; Liu, Peter; Turkbey, Baris; Choyke, Peter; Pinto, Peter; Summers, Ronald M

2012-01-01

In this paper, we propose a new pharmacokinetic model for parameter estimation of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI by using Gaussian process inference. Our model is based on the Tofts dual-compartment model for the description of tracer kinetics and the observed time series from DCE-MRI is treated as a Gaussian stochastic process. The parameter estimation is done through a maximum likelihood approach and we propose a variant of the coordinate descent method to solve this likelihood maximization problem. The new model was shown to outperform a baseline method on simulated data. Parametric maps generated on prostate DCE data with the new model also provided better enhancement of tumors, lower intensity on false positives, and better boundary delineation when compared with the baseline method. New statistical parameter maps from the process model were also found to be informative, particularly when paired with the PK parameter maps.

A Model-based B2B (Batch to Batch) Control for An Industrial Batch Polymerization Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogawa, Morimasa

This paper describes overview of a model-based B2B (batch to batch) control for an industrial batch polymerization process. In order to control the reaction temperature precisely, several methods based on the rigorous process dynamics model are employed at all design stage of the B2B control, such as modeling and parameter estimation of the reaction kinetics which is one of the important part of the process dynamics model. The designed B2B control consists of the gain scheduled I-PD/II2-PD control (I-PD with double integral control), the feed-forward compensation at the batch start time, and the model adaptation utilizing the results of the last batch operation. Throughout the actual batch operations, the B2B control provides superior control performance compared with that of conventional control methods.

Dynamical Analysis in the Mathematical Modelling of Human Blood Glucose

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bae, Saebyok; Kang, Byungmin

2012-01-01

We want to apply the geometrical method to a dynamical system of human blood glucose. Due to the educational importance of model building, we show a relatively general modelling process using observational facts. Next, two models of some concrete forms are analysed in the phase plane by means of linear stability, phase portrait and vector…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deng, Yueying; Kruger, Albert A.

The Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Statement of Work (Department of Energy Contract DE-AC27-01RV14136, Section C) requires the contractor to develop and use process models for flowsheet analyses and pre-operational planning assessments. The Dynamic (G2) Flowsheet is a discrete-time process model that enables the project to evaluate impacts to throughput from eventdriven activities such as pumping, sampling, storage, recycle, separation, and chemical reactions. The model is developed by the Process Engineering (PE) department, and is based on the Flowsheet Bases, Assumptions, and Requirements Document (24590-WTP-RPT-PT-02-005), commonly called the BARD. The terminologies of Dynamic (G2) Flowsheet and Dynamicmore » (G2) Model are interchangeable in this document. The foundation of this model is a dynamic material balance governed by prescribed initial conditions, boundary conditions, and operating logic. The dynamic material balance is achieved by tracking the storage and material flows within the plant as time increments. The initial conditions include a feed vector that represents the waste compositions and delivery sequence of the Tank Farm batches, and volumes and concentrations of solutions in process equipment before startup. The boundary conditions are the physical limits of the flowsheet design, such as piping, volumes, flowrates, operation efficiencies, and physical and chemical environments that impact separations, phase equilibriums, and reaction extents. The operating logic represents the rules and strategies of running the plant.« less

An advanced technique for the prediction of decelerator system dynamics.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Talay, T. A.; Morris, W. D.; Whitlock, C. H.

1973-01-01

An advanced two-body six-degree-of-freedom computer model employing an indeterminate structures approach has been developed for the parachute deployment process. The program determines both vehicular and decelerator responses to aerodynamic and physical property inputs. A better insight into the dynamic processes that occur during parachute deployment has been developed. The model is of value in sensitivity studies to isolate important parameters that affect the vehicular response.

Interactive Structure (EUCLID) For Static And Dynamic Representation Of Human Body

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renaud, Ch.; Steck, R.

1983-07-01

A specific software (EUCLID) for static and dynamic representation of human models is described. The data processing system is connected with ERGODATA and used in interactive mode by intrinsic or specific functions. More or less complex representations in 3-D view of models of the human body are developed. Biostereometric and conventional anthropometric raw data from the data bank are processed for different applications in ergonomy.

Moving alcohol prevention research forward-Part II: new directions grounded in community-based system dynamics modeling.

PubMed

Apostolopoulos, Yorghos; Lemke, Michael K; Barry, Adam E; Lich, Kristen Hassmiller

2018-02-01

Given the complexity of factors contributing to alcohol misuse, appropriate epistemologies and methodologies are needed to understand and intervene meaningfully. We aimed to (1) provide an overview of computational modeling methodologies, with an emphasis on system dynamics modeling; (2) explain how community-based system dynamics modeling can forge new directions in alcohol prevention research; and (3) present a primer on how to build alcohol misuse simulation models using system dynamics modeling, with an emphasis on stakeholder involvement, data sources and model validation. Throughout, we use alcohol misuse among college students in the United States as a heuristic example for demonstrating these methodologies. System dynamics modeling employs a top-down aggregate approach to understanding dynamically complex problems. Its three foundational properties-stocks, flows and feedbacks-capture non-linearity, time-delayed effects and other system characteristics. As a methodological choice, system dynamics modeling is amenable to participatory approaches; in particular, community-based system dynamics modeling has been used to build impactful models for addressing dynamically complex problems. The process of community-based system dynamics modeling consists of numerous stages: (1) creating model boundary charts, behavior-over-time-graphs and preliminary system dynamics models using group model-building techniques; (2) model formulation; (3) model calibration; (4) model testing and validation; and (5) model simulation using learning-laboratory techniques. Community-based system dynamics modeling can provide powerful tools for policy and intervention decisions that can result ultimately in sustainable changes in research and action in alcohol misuse prevention. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Dynamics of Postcombustion CO2 Capture Plants: Modeling, Validation, and Case Study

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The capture of CO2 from power plant flue gases provides an opportunity to mitigate emissions that are harmful to the global climate. While the process of CO2 capture using an aqueous amine solution is well-known from experience in other technical sectors (e.g., acid gas removal in the gas processing industry), its operation combined with a power plant still needs investigation because in this case, the interaction with power plants that are increasingly operated dynamically poses control challenges. This article presents the dynamic modeling of CO2 capture plants followed by a detailed validation using transient measurements recorded from the pilot plant operated at the Maasvlakte power station in the Netherlands. The model predictions are in good agreement with the experimental data related to the transient changes of the main process variables such as flow rate, CO2 concentrations, temperatures, and solvent loading. The validated model was used to study the effects of fast power plant transients on the capture plant operation. A relevant result of this work is that an integrated CO2 capture plant might enable more dynamic operation of retrofitted fossil fuel power plants because the large amount of steam needed by the capture process can be diverted rapidly to and from the power plant. PMID:28413256

Decisionmaking in practice: The dynamics of muddling through.

PubMed

Flach, John M; Feufel, Markus A; Reynolds, Peter L; Parker, Sarah Henrickson; Kellogg, Kathryn M

2017-09-01

An alternative to conventional models that treat decisions as open-loop independent choices is presented. The alterative model is based on observations of work situations such as healthcare, where decisionmaking is more typically a closed-loop, dynamic, problem-solving process. The article suggests five important distinctions between the processes assumed by conventional models and the reality of decisionmaking in practice. It is suggested that the logic of abduction in the form of an adaptive, muddling through process is more consistent with the realities of practice in domains such as healthcare. The practical implication is that the design goal should not be to improve consistency with normative models of rationality, but to tune the representations guiding the muddling process to increase functional perspicacity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; William D. Dijak; Jacob Fraser; Wen J. Wang; Brice Hanberry; Hong He; Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler; Leslie Brandt; Chris Swanston

2016-01-01

Context. Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process...

Microbial Internal Storage Alters the Carbon Transformation in Dynamic Anaerobic Fermentation.

PubMed

Ni, Bing-Jie; Batstone, Damien; Zhao, Bai-Hang; Yu, Han-Qing

2015-08-04

Microbial internal storage processes have been demonstrated to occur and play an important role in activated sludge systems under both aerobic and anoxic conditions when operating under dynamic conditions. High-rate anaerobic reactors are often operated at a high volumetric organic loading and a relatively dynamic profile, with large amounts of fermentable substrates. These dynamic operating conditions and high catabolic energy availability might also facilitate the formation of internal storage polymers by anaerobic microorganisms. However, so far information about storage under anaerobic conditions (e.g., anaerobic fermentation) as well as its consideration in anaerobic process modeling (e.g., IWA Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1, ADM1) is still sparse. In this work, the accumulation of storage polymers during anaerobic fermentation was evaluated by batch experiments using anaerobic methanogenic sludge and based on mass balance analysis of carbon transformation. A new mathematical model was developed to describe microbial storage in anaerobic systems. The model was calibrated and validated by using independent data sets from two different anaerobic systems, with significant storage observed, and effectively simulated in both systems. The inclusion of the new anaerobic storage processes in the developed model allows for more successful simulation of transients due to lower accumulation of volatile fatty acids (correction for the overestimation of volatile fatty acids), which mitigates pH fluctuations. Current models such as the ADM1 cannot effectively simulate these dynamics due to a lack of anaerobic storage mechanisms.

From Particles and Point Clouds to Voxel Models: High Resolution Modeling of Dynamic Landscapes in Open Source GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitasova, H.; Hardin, E. J.; Kratochvilova, A.; Landa, M.

2012-12-01

Multitemporal data acquired by modern mapping technologies provide unique insights into processes driving land surface dynamics. These high resolution data also offer an opportunity to improve the theoretical foundations and accuracy of process-based simulations of evolving landforms. We discuss development of new generation of visualization and analytics tools for GRASS GIS designed for 3D multitemporal data from repeated lidar surveys and from landscape process simulations. We focus on data and simulation methods that are based on point sampling of continuous fields and lead to representation of evolving surfaces as series of raster map layers or voxel models. For multitemporal lidar data we present workflows that combine open source point cloud processing tools with GRASS GIS and custom python scripts to model and analyze dynamics of coastal topography (Figure 1) and we outline development of coastal analysis toolbox. The simulations focus on particle sampling method for solving continuity equations and its application for geospatial modeling of landscape processes. In addition to water and sediment transport models, already implemented in GIS, the new capabilities under development combine OpenFOAM for wind shear stress simulation with a new module for aeolian sand transport and dune evolution simulations. Comparison of observed dynamics with the results of simulations is supported by a new, integrated 2D and 3D visualization interface that provides highly interactive and intuitive access to the redesigned and enhanced visualization tools. Several case studies will be used to illustrate the presented methods and tools and demonstrate the power of workflows built with FOSS and highlight their interoperability.Figure 1. Isosurfaces representing evolution of shoreline and a z=4.5m contour between the years 1997-2011at Cape Hatteras, NC extracted from a voxel model derived from series of lidar-based DEMs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiqi; Ahlström, Anders; Allison, Steven D.

Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs) and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the 3rd to 5th assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe themore » environmental conditions that soils experience. Firstly, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by 1st-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic SOC dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Secondly, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool- and flux-based datasets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Thirdly, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. We recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable datasets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and prescribe forcing fields.« less

Modelling social interaction as perceptual crossing: an investigation into the dynamics of the interaction process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Froese, Tom; Di Paolo, Ezequiel A.

2010-03-01

This paper continues efforts to establish a mutually informative dialogue between psychology and evolutionary robotics in order to investigate the dynamics of social interaction. We replicate a recent simulation model of a minimalist experiment in perceptual crossing and confirm the results with significantly simpler artificial agents. A series of psycho-physical tests of their behaviour informs a hypothetical circuit model of their internal operation. However, a detailed study of the actual internal dynamics reveals this circuit model to be unfounded, thereby offering a tale of caution for those hypothesising about sub-personal processes in terms of behavioural observations. In particular, it is shown that the behaviour of the agents largely emerges out of the interaction process itself rather than being an individual achievement alone. We also extend the original simulation model in two novel directions in order to test further the extent to which perceptual crossing between agents can self-organise in a robust manner. These modelling results suggest new hypotheses that can become the basis for further psychological experiments.

Mesoscale energy deposition footprint model for kiloelectronvolt cluster bombardment of solids.

PubMed

Russo, Michael F; Garrison, Barbara J

2006-10-15

Molecular dynamics simulations have been performed to model 5-keV C60 and Au3 projectile bombardment of an amorphous water substrate. The goal is to obtain detailed insights into the dynamics of motion in order to develop a straightforward and less computationally demanding model of the process of ejection. The molecular dynamics results provide the basis for the mesoscale energy deposition footprint model. This model provides a method for predicting relative yields based on information from less than 1 ps of simulation time.

Dynamic modeling and validation of a lignocellulosic enzymatic hydrolysis process--a demonstration scale study.

PubMed

Prunescu, Remus Mihail; Sin, Gürkan

2013-12-01

The enzymatic hydrolysis process is one of the key steps in second generation biofuel production. After being thermally pretreated, the lignocellulosic material is liquefied by enzymes prior to fermentation. The scope of this paper is to evaluate a dynamic model of the hydrolysis process on a demonstration scale reactor. The following novel features are included: the application of the Convection-Diffusion-Reaction equation to a hydrolysis reactor to assess transport and mixing effects; the extension of a competitive kinetic model with enzymatic pH dependency and hemicellulose hydrolysis; a comprehensive pH model; and viscosity estimations during the course of reaction. The model is evaluated against real data extracted from a demonstration scale biorefinery throughout several days of operation. All measurements are within predictions uncertainty and, therefore, the model constitutes a valuable tool to support process optimization, performance monitoring, diagnosis and process control at full-scale studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic modelling of an adsorption storage tank using a hybrid approach combining computational fluid dynamics and process simulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mota, J.P.B.; Esteves, I.A.A.C.; Rostam-Abadi, M.

2004-01-01

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software package has been coupled with the dynamic process simulator of an adsorption storage tank for methane fuelled vehicles. The two solvers run as independent processes and handle non-overlapping portions of the computational domain. The codes exchange data on the boundary interface of the two domains to ensure continuity of the solution and of its gradient. A software interface was developed to dynamically suspend and activate each process as necessary, and be responsible for data exchange and process synchronization. This hybrid computational tool has been successfully employed to accurately simulate the discharge of a new tank design and evaluate its performance. The case study presented here shows that CFD and process simulation are highly complementary computational tools, and that there are clear benefits to be gained from a close integration of the two. ?? 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The wiper model: avalanche dynamics in an exclusion process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Politi, Antonio; Romano, M. Carmen

2013-10-01

The exclusion-process model (Ciandrini et al 2010 Phys. Rev. E 81 051904) describing traffic of particles with internal stepping dynamics reveals the presence of strong correlations in realistic regimes. Here we study such a model in the limit of an infinitely fast translocation time, where the evolution can be interpreted as a ‘wiper’ that moves to dry neighbouring sites. We trace back the existence of long-range correlations to the existence of avalanches, where many sites are dried at once. At variance with self-organized criticality, in the wiper model avalanches have a typical size equal to the logarithm of the lattice size. In the thermodynamic limit, we find that the hydrodynamic behaviour is a mixture of stochastic (diffusive) fluctuations and increasingly coherent periodic oscillations that are reminiscent of a collective dynamics.

Improving the Aircraft Design Process Using Web-Based Modeling and Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reed, John A.; Follen, Gregory J.; Afjeh, Abdollah A.; Follen, Gregory J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Designing and developing new aircraft systems is time-consuming and expensive. Computational simulation is a promising means for reducing design cycle times, but requires a flexible software environment capable of integrating advanced multidisciplinary and multifidelity analysis methods, dynamically managing data across heterogeneous computing platforms, and distributing computationally complex tasks. Web-based simulation, with its emphasis on collaborative composition of simulation models, distributed heterogeneous execution, and dynamic multimedia documentation, has the potential to meet these requirements. This paper outlines the current aircraft design process, highlighting its problems and complexities, and presents our vision of an aircraft design process using Web-based modeling and simulation.

Improving the Aircraft Design Process Using Web-based Modeling and Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reed, John A.; Follen, Gregory J.; Afjeh, Abdollah A.

2003-01-01

Designing and developing new aircraft systems is time-consuming and expensive. Computational simulation is a promising means for reducing design cycle times, but requires a flexible software environment capable of integrating advanced multidisciplinary and muitifidelity analysis methods, dynamically managing data across heterogeneous computing platforms, and distributing computationally complex tasks. Web-based simulation, with its emphasis on collaborative composition of simulation models, distributed heterogeneous execution, and dynamic multimedia documentation, has the potential to meet these requirements. This paper outlines the current aircraft design process, highlighting its problems and complexities, and presents our vision of an aircraft design process using Web-based modeling and simulation.

Dynamic classification of fetal heart rates by hierarchical Dirichlet process mixture models.

PubMed

Yu, Kezi; Quirk, J Gerald; Djurić, Petar M

2017-01-01

In this paper, we propose an application of non-parametric Bayesian (NPB) models for classification of fetal heart rate (FHR) recordings. More specifically, we propose models that are used to differentiate between FHR recordings that are from fetuses with or without adverse outcomes. In our work, we rely on models based on hierarchical Dirichlet processes (HDP) and the Chinese restaurant process with finite capacity (CRFC). Two mixture models were inferred from real recordings, one that represents healthy and another, non-healthy fetuses. The models were then used to classify new recordings and provide the probability of the fetus being healthy. First, we compared the classification performance of the HDP models with that of support vector machines on real data and concluded that the HDP models achieved better performance. Then we demonstrated the use of mixture models based on CRFC for dynamic classification of the performance of (FHR) recordings in a real-time setting.

Dynamic classification of fetal heart rates by hierarchical Dirichlet process mixture models

PubMed Central

Yu, Kezi; Quirk, J. Gerald

2017-01-01

In this paper, we propose an application of non-parametric Bayesian (NPB) models for classification of fetal heart rate (FHR) recordings. More specifically, we propose models that are used to differentiate between FHR recordings that are from fetuses with or without adverse outcomes. In our work, we rely on models based on hierarchical Dirichlet processes (HDP) and the Chinese restaurant process with finite capacity (CRFC). Two mixture models were inferred from real recordings, one that represents healthy and another, non-healthy fetuses. The models were then used to classify new recordings and provide the probability of the fetus being healthy. First, we compared the classification performance of the HDP models with that of support vector machines on real data and concluded that the HDP models achieved better performance. Then we demonstrated the use of mixture models based on CRFC for dynamic classification of the performance of (FHR) recordings in a real-time setting. PMID:28953927

Collective Phenomena Emerging from the Interactions between Dynamical Processes in Multiplex Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicosia, Vincenzo; Skardal, Per Sebastian; Arenas, Alex; Latora, Vito

2017-03-01

We introduce a framework to intertwine dynamical processes of different nature, each with its own distinct network topology, using a multilayer network approach. As an example of collective phenomena emerging from the interactions of multiple dynamical processes, we study a model where neural dynamics and nutrient transport are bidirectionally coupled in such a way that the allocation of the transport process at one layer depends on the degree of synchronization at the other layer, and vice versa. We show numerically, and we prove analytically, that the multilayer coupling induces a spontaneous explosive synchronization and a heterogeneous distribution of allocations, otherwise not present in the two systems considered separately. Our framework can find application to other cases where two or more dynamical processes such as synchronization, opinion formation, information diffusion, or disease spreading, are interacting with each other.

Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-02

Repeated Game with Incomplete Information, IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing. 20-MAR-16, Shanghai, China...in a game theoretic framework for the application of multi-seller dynamic pricing with unknown demand models. We formulated the problem as an...infinitely repeated game with incomplete information and developed a dynamic pricing strategy referred to as Competitive and Cooperative Demand Learning

A system dynamic modeling approach for evaluating municipal solid waste generation, landfill capacity and related cost management issues.

PubMed

Kollikkathara, Naushad; Feng, Huan; Yu, Danlin

2010-11-01

As planning for sustainable municipal solid waste management has to address several inter-connected issues such as landfill capacity, environmental impacts and financial expenditure, it becomes increasingly necessary to understand the dynamic nature of their interactions. A system dynamics approach designed here attempts to address some of these issues by fitting a model framework for Newark urban region in the US, and running a forecast simulation. The dynamic system developed in this study incorporates the complexity of the waste generation and management process to some extent which is achieved through a combination of simpler sub-processes that are linked together to form a whole. The impact of decision options on the generation of waste in the city, on the remaining landfill capacity of the state, and on the economic cost or benefit actualized by different waste processing options are explored through this approach, providing valuable insights into the urban waste-management process. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A system dynamic modeling approach for evaluating municipal solid waste generation, landfill capacity and related cost management issues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kollikkathara, Naushad, E-mail: naushadkp@gmail.co; Feng Huan; Yu Danlin

2010-11-15

As planning for sustainable municipal solid waste management has to address several inter-connected issues such as landfill capacity, environmental impacts and financial expenditure, it becomes increasingly necessary to understand the dynamic nature of their interactions. A system dynamics approach designed here attempts to address some of these issues by fitting a model framework for Newark urban region in the US, and running a forecast simulation. The dynamic system developed in this study incorporates the complexity of the waste generation and management process to some extent which is achieved through a combination of simpler sub-processes that are linked together to formmore » a whole. The impact of decision options on the generation of waste in the city, on the remaining landfill capacity of the state, and on the economic cost or benefit actualized by different waste processing options are explored through this approach, providing valuable insights into the urban waste-management process.« less

A Hybrid Approach to Data Assimilation for Reconstructing the Evolution of Mantle Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Quan; Liu, Lijun

2017-11-01

Quantifying past mantle dynamic processes represents a major challenge in understanding the temporal evolution of the solid earth. Mantle convection modeling with data assimilation is one of the most powerful tools to investigate the dynamics of plate subduction and mantle convection. Although various data assimilation methods, both forward and inverse, have been created, these methods all have limitations in their capabilities to represent the real earth. Pure forward models tend to miss important mantle structures due to the incorrect initial condition and thus may lead to incorrect mantle evolution. In contrast, pure tomography-based models cannot effectively resolve the fine slab structure and would fail to predict important subduction-zone dynamic processes. Here we propose a hybrid data assimilation approach that combines the unique power of the sequential and adjoint algorithms, which can properly capture the detailed evolution of the downgoing slab and the tomographically constrained mantle structures, respectively. We apply this new method to reconstructing mantle dynamics below the western U.S. while considering large lateral viscosity variations. By comparing this result with those from several existing data assimilation methods, we demonstrate that the hybrid modeling approach recovers the realistic 4-D mantle dynamics the best.

A Hybrid Forward-Adjoint Data Assimilation Method for Reconstructing the Temporal Evolution of Mantle Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Q.; Liu, L.

2017-12-01

Quantifying past mantle dynamic processes represents a major challenge in understanding the temporal evolution of the solid earth. Mantle convection modeling with data assimilation is one of the most powerful tools to investigate the dynamics of plate subduction and mantle convection. Although various data assimilation methods, both forward and inverse, have been created, these methods all have limitations in their capabilities to represent the real earth. Pure forward models tend to miss important mantle structures due to the incorrect initial condition and thus may lead to incorrect mantle evolution. In contrast, pure tomography-based models cannot effectively resolve the fine slab structure and would fail to predict important subduction-zone dynamic processes. Here we propose a hybrid data assimilation method that combines the unique power of the sequential and adjoint algorithms, which can properly capture the detailed evolution of the downgoing slab and the tomographically constrained mantle structures, respectively. We apply this new method to reconstructing mantle dynamics below the western U.S. while considering large lateral viscosity variations. By comparing this result with those from several existing data assimilation methods, we demonstrate that the hybrid modeling approach recovers the realistic 4-D mantle dynamics to the best.

Teachers' Use of Computational Tools to Construct and Explore Dynamic Mathematical Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santos-Trigo, Manuel; Reyes-Rodriguez, Aaron

2011-01-01

To what extent does the use of computational tools offer teachers the possibility of constructing dynamic models to identify and explore diverse mathematical relations? What ways of reasoning or thinking about the problems emerge during the model construction process that involves the use of the tools? These research questions guided the…

Estimating the Contribution of Dynamical Ejecta in the Kilonova Associated with GW170817

DOE PAGES

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; ...

2017-12-01

The source of the gravitational-wave (GW) signal GW170817, very likely a binary neutron star merger, was also observed electromagnetically, providing the first multi-messenger observations of this type. The two-week-long electromagnetic (EM) counterpart had a signature indicative of an r-process-induced optical transient known as a kilonova. This Letter examines how the mass of the dynamical ejecta can be estimated without a direct electromagnetic observation of the kilonova, using GW measurements and a phenomenological model calibrated to numerical simulations of mergers with dynamical ejecta. Specifically, we apply the model to the binary masses inferred from the GW measurements, and use the resulting mass of the dynamical ejecta to estimate its contribution (without the effects of wind ejecta) to the corresponding kilonova light curves from various models. The distributions of dynamical ejecta mass range betweenmore » $${M}_{\\mathrm{ej}}={10}^{-3}-{10}^{-2}\\,{M}_{\\odot }$$ for various equations of state, assuming that the neutron stars are rotating slowly. In addition, we use our estimates of the dynamical ejecta mass and the neutron star merger rates inferred from GW170817 to constrain the contribution of events like this to the r-process element abundance in the Galaxy when ejecta mass from post-merger winds is neglected. We find that if ≳10% of the matter dynamically ejected from binary neutron star (BNS) mergers is converted to r-process elements, GW170817-like BNS mergers could fully account for the amount of r-process material observed in the Milky Way.« less

Estimating the Contribution of Dynamical Ejecta in the Kilonova Associated with GW170817

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.

The source of the gravitational-wave (GW) signal GW170817, very likely a binary neutron star merger, was also observed electromagnetically, providing the first multi-messenger observations of this type. The two-week-long electromagnetic (EM) counterpart had a signature indicative of an r-process-induced optical transient known as a kilonova. This Letter examines how the mass of the dynamical ejecta can be estimated without a direct electromagnetic observation of the kilonova, using GW measurements and a phenomenological model calibrated to numerical simulations of mergers with dynamical ejecta. Specifically, we apply the model to the binary masses inferred from the GW measurements, and use the resulting mass of the dynamical ejecta to estimate its contribution (without the effects of wind ejecta) to the corresponding kilonova light curves from various models. The distributions of dynamical ejecta mass range betweenmore » $${M}_{\\mathrm{ej}}={10}^{-3}-{10}^{-2}\\,{M}_{\\odot }$$ for various equations of state, assuming that the neutron stars are rotating slowly. In addition, we use our estimates of the dynamical ejecta mass and the neutron star merger rates inferred from GW170817 to constrain the contribution of events like this to the r-process element abundance in the Galaxy when ejecta mass from post-merger winds is neglected. We find that if ≳10% of the matter dynamically ejected from binary neutron star (BNS) mergers is converted to r-process elements, GW170817-like BNS mergers could fully account for the amount of r-process material observed in the Milky Way.« less

Multi-scale Modeling of Chromosomal DNA in Living Cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spakowitz, Andrew

The organization and dynamics of chromosomal DNA play a pivotal role in a range of biological processes, including gene regulation, homologous recombination, replication, and segregation. Establishing a quantitative theoretical model of DNA organization and dynamics would be valuable in bridging the gap between the molecular-level packaging of DNA and genome-scale chromosomal processes. Our research group utilizes analytical theory and computational modeling to establish a predictive theoretical model of chromosomal organization and dynamics. In this talk, I will discuss our efforts to develop multi-scale polymer models of chromosomal DNA that are both sufficiently detailed to address specific protein-DNA interactions while capturing experimentally relevant time and length scales. I will demonstrate how these modeling efforts are capable of quantitatively capturing aspects of behavior of chromosomal DNA in both prokaryotic and eukaryotic cells. This talk will illustrate that capturing dynamical behavior of chromosomal DNA at various length scales necessitates a range of theoretical treatments that accommodate the critical physical contributions that are relevant to in vivo behavior at these disparate length and time scales. National Science Foundation, Physics of Living Systems Program (PHY-1305516).

Correlated receptor transport processes buffer single-cell heterogeneity

PubMed Central

Kallenberger, Stefan M.; Unger, Anne L.; Legewie, Stefan; Lymperopoulos, Konstantinos; Eils, Roland

2017-01-01

Cells typically vary in their response to extracellular ligands. Receptor transport processes modulate ligand-receptor induced signal transduction and impact the variability in cellular responses. Here, we quantitatively characterized cellular variability in erythropoietin receptor (EpoR) trafficking at the single-cell level based on live-cell imaging and mathematical modeling. Using ensembles of single-cell mathematical models reduced parameter uncertainties and showed that rapid EpoR turnover, transport of internalized EpoR back to the plasma membrane, and degradation of Epo-EpoR complexes were essential for receptor trafficking. EpoR trafficking dynamics in adherent H838 lung cancer cells closely resembled the dynamics previously characterized by mathematical modeling in suspension cells, indicating that dynamic properties of the EpoR system are widely conserved. Receptor transport processes differed by one order of magnitude between individual cells. However, the concentration of activated Epo-EpoR complexes was less variable due to the correlated kinetics of opposing transport processes acting as a buffering system. PMID:28945754

Parallel processing for nonlinear dynamics simulations of structures including rotating bladed-disk assemblies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsieh, Shang-Hsien

1993-01-01

The principal objective of this research is to develop, test, and implement coarse-grained, parallel-processing strategies for nonlinear dynamic simulations of practical structural problems. There are contributions to four main areas: finite element modeling and analysis of rotational dynamics, numerical algorithms for parallel nonlinear solutions, automatic partitioning techniques to effect load-balancing among processors, and an integrated parallel analysis system.

Application of dynamic models to estimate greenhouse gas emission by wastewater treatment plants of the pulp and paper industry.

PubMed

Ashrafi, Omid; Yerushalmi, Laleh; Haghighat, Fariborz

2013-03-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission in wastewater treatment plants of the pulp-and-paper industry was estimated by using a dynamic mathematical model. Significant variations were shown in the magnitude of GHG generation in response to variations in operating parameters, demonstrating the limited capacity of steady-state models in predicting the time-dependent emissions of these harmful gases. The examined treatment systems used aerobic, anaerobic, and hybrid-anaerobic/aerobic-biological processes along with chemical coagulation/flocculation, anaerobic digester, nitrification and denitrification processes, and biogas recovery. The pertinent operating parameters included the influent substrate concentration, influent flow rate, and temperature. Although the average predictions by the dynamic model were only 10 % different from those of steady-state model during 140 days of operation of the examined systems, the daily variations of GHG emissions were different up to ± 30, ± 19, and ± 17 % in the aerobic, anaerobic, and hybrid systems, respectively. The variations of process variables caused fluctuations in energy generation from biogas recovery by ± 6, ± 7, and ± 4 % in the three examined systems, respectively. The lowest variations were observed in the hybrid system, showing the stability of this particular process design.

System dynamics model for predicting floods from snowmelt in North American prairie watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Simonovic, S. P.

2002-09-01

This study uses a system dynamics approach to explore hydrological processes in the geographic locations where the main contribution to flooding is coming from the snowmelt. Temperature is identified as a critical factor that affects watershed hydrological processes. Based on the dynamic processes of the hydrologic cycle occurring in a watershed, the feedback relationships linking the watershed structure, as well as the climate factors, to the streamflow generation were identified prior to the development of a system dynamics model. The model is used to simulate flood patterns generated by snowmelt under temperature change in the spring. Model structure captures a vertical water balance using five tanks representing snow, interception, surface, subsurface and groundwater storage. Calibration and verification results show that temperature change and snowmelt play a key role in flood generation. Results indicate that simulated values match observed data very well. The goodness-of-fit between simulated and observed peak flow data is measured using coefficient of efficiency, coefficient of determination and square of the residual mass curve coefficient. For the Assiniboine River all three measures were in the interval between 0·92 and 0·96 and for the Red River between 0·89 and 0·97. The model is capable of capturing the essential dynamics of streamflow formation. Model input requires a set of initial values for all state variables and the time series of daily temperature and precipitation information. Data from the Red River Basin, shared by Canada and the USA, are used in the model development and testing.

The response dynamics of preferential choice.

PubMed

Koop, Gregory J; Johnson, Joseph G

2013-12-01

The ubiquity of psychological process models requires an increased degree of sophistication in the methods and metrics that we use to evaluate them. We contribute to this venture by capitalizing on recent work in cognitive science analyzing response dynamics, which shows that the bearing information processing dynamics have on intended action is also revealed in the motor system. This decidedly "embodied" view suggests that researchers are missing out on potential dependent variables with which to evaluate their models-those associated with the motor response that produces a choice. The current work develops a method for collecting and analyzing such data in the domain of decision making. We first validate this method using widely normed stimuli from the International Affective Picture System (Experiment 1), and demonstrate that curvature in response trajectories provides a metric of the competition between choice options. We next extend the method to risky decision making (Experiment 2) and develop predictions for three popular classes of process model. The data provided by response dynamics demonstrate that choices contrary to the maxim of risk seeking in losses and risk aversion in gains may be the product of at least one "online" preference reversal, and can thus begin to discriminate amongst the candidate models. Finally, we incorporate attentional data collected via eye-tracking (Experiment 3) to develop a formal computational model of joint information sampling and preference accumulation. In sum, we validate response dynamics for use in preferential choice tasks and demonstrate the unique conclusions afforded by response dynamics over and above traditional methods. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nitrogen cycling models and their application to forest harvesting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, D.W.; Dale, V.H.

1986-01-01

The characterization of forest nitrogen- (N-) cycling processes by several N-cycling models (FORCYTE, NITCOMP, FORTNITE, and LINKAGES) is briefly reviewed and evaluated against current knowledge of N cycling in forests. Some important processes (e.g., translocation within trees, N dynamics in decaying leaf litter) appear to be well characterized, whereas others (e.g., N mineralization from soil organic matter, N fixation, N dynamics in decaying wood, nitrification, and nitrate leaching) are poorly characterized, primarily because of a lack of knowledge rather than an oversight by model developers. It is remarkable how well the forest models do work in the absence of datamore » on some key processes. For those systems in which the poorly understood processes could cause major changes in N availability or productivity, the accuracy of model predictions should be examined. However, the development of N-cycling models represents a major step beyond the much simpler, classic conceptual models of forest nutrient cycling developed by early investigators. The new generation of computer models will surely improve as research reveals how key nutrient-cycling processes operate.« less

Role of syn-eruptive plagioclase disequilibrium crystallization in basaltic magma ascent dynamics.

PubMed

La Spina, G; Burton, M; De' Michieli Vitturi, M; Arzilli, F

2016-12-12

Timescales of magma ascent in conduit models are typically assumed to be much longer than crystallization and gas exsolution for basaltic eruptions. However, it is now recognized that basaltic magmas may rise fast enough for disequilibrium processes to play a key role on the ascent dynamics. The quantification of the characteristic times for crystallization and exsolution processes are fundamental to our understanding of such disequilibria and ascent dynamics. Here we use observations from Mount Etna's 2001 eruption and a magma ascent model to constrain timescales for crystallization and exsolution processes. Our results show that plagioclase reaches equilibrium in 1-2 h, whereas ascent times were <1 h. Using these new constraints on disequilibrium plagioclase crystallization we also reproduce observed crystal abundances for different basaltic eruptions. The strong relation between magma ascent rate and disequilibrium crystallization and exsolution plays a key role in controlling eruption dynamics in basaltic volcanism.

The dynamics of meaningful social interactions and the emergence of collective knowledge

PubMed Central

Dankulov, Marija Mitrović; Melnik, Roderick; Tadić, Bosiljka

2015-01-01

Collective knowledge as a social value may arise in cooperation among actors whose individual expertise is limited. The process of knowledge creation requires meaningful, logically coordinated interactions, which represents a challenging problem to physics and social dynamics modeling. By combining two-scale dynamics model with empirical data analysis from a well-known Questions & Answers system Mathematics, we show that this process occurs as a collective phenomenon in an enlarged network (of actors and their artifacts) where the cognitive recognition interactions are properly encoded. The emergent behavior is quantified by the information divergence and innovation advancing of knowledge over time and the signatures of self-organization and knowledge sharing communities. These measures elucidate the impact of each cognitive element and the individual actor’s expertise in the collective dynamics. The results are relevant to stochastic processes involving smart components and to collaborative social endeavors, for instance, crowdsourcing scientific knowledge production with online games. PMID:26174482

Role of syn-eruptive plagioclase disequilibrium crystallization in basaltic magma ascent dynamics

PubMed Central

La Spina, G.; Burton, M.; de' Michieli Vitturi, M.; Arzilli, F.

2016-01-01

Timescales of magma ascent in conduit models are typically assumed to be much longer than crystallization and gas exsolution for basaltic eruptions. However, it is now recognized that basaltic magmas may rise fast enough for disequilibrium processes to play a key role on the ascent dynamics. The quantification of the characteristic times for crystallization and exsolution processes are fundamental to our understanding of such disequilibria and ascent dynamics. Here we use observations from Mount Etna's 2001 eruption and a magma ascent model to constrain timescales for crystallization and exsolution processes. Our results show that plagioclase reaches equilibrium in 1–2 h, whereas ascent times were <1 h. Using these new constraints on disequilibrium plagioclase crystallization we also reproduce observed crystal abundances for different basaltic eruptions. The strong relation between magma ascent rate and disequilibrium crystallization and exsolution plays a key role in controlling eruption dynamics in basaltic volcanism. PMID:27941750

Invariant measures in brain dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyarsky, Abraham; Góra, Paweł

2006-10-01

This note concerns brain activity at the level of neural ensembles and uses ideas from ergodic dynamical systems to model and characterize chaotic patterns among these ensembles during conscious mental activity. Central to our model is the definition of a space of neural ensembles and the assumption of discrete time ensemble dynamics. We argue that continuous invariant measures draw the attention of deeper brain processes, engendering emergent properties such as consciousness. Invariant measures supported on a finite set of ensembles reflect periodic behavior, whereas the existence of continuous invariant measures reflect the dynamics of nonrepeating ensemble patterns that elicit the interest of deeper mental processes. We shall consider two different ways to achieve continuous invariant measures on the space of neural ensembles: (1) via quantum jitters, and (2) via sensory input accompanied by inner thought processes which engender a “folding” property on the space of ensembles.

The dynamics of meaningful social interactions and the emergence of collective knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dankulov, Marija Mitrović; Melnik, Roderick; Tadić, Bosiljka

2015-07-01

Collective knowledge as a social value may arise in cooperation among actors whose individual expertise is limited. The process of knowledge creation requires meaningful, logically coordinated interactions, which represents a challenging problem to physics and social dynamics modeling. By combining two-scale dynamics model with empirical data analysis from a well-known Questions & Answers system Mathematics, we show that this process occurs as a collective phenomenon in an enlarged network (of actors and their artifacts) where the cognitive recognition interactions are properly encoded. The emergent behavior is quantified by the information divergence and innovation advancing of knowledge over time and the signatures of self-organization and knowledge sharing communities. These measures elucidate the impact of each cognitive element and the individual actor’s expertise in the collective dynamics. The results are relevant to stochastic processes involving smart components and to collaborative social endeavors, for instance, crowdsourcing scientific knowledge production with online games.

The dynamics of meaningful social interactions and the emergence of collective knowledge.

PubMed

Dankulov, Marija Mitrović; Melnik, Roderick; Tadić, Bosiljka

2015-07-15

Collective knowledge as a social value may arise in cooperation among actors whose individual expertise is limited. The process of knowledge creation requires meaningful, logically coordinated interactions, which represents a challenging problem to physics and social dynamics modeling. By combining two-scale dynamics model with empirical data analysis from a well-known Questions &Answers system Mathematics, we show that this process occurs as a collective phenomenon in an enlarged network (of actors and their artifacts) where the cognitive recognition interactions are properly encoded. The emergent behavior is quantified by the information divergence and innovation advancing of knowledge over time and the signatures of self-organization and knowledge sharing communities. These measures elucidate the impact of each cognitive element and the individual actor's expertise in the collective dynamics. The results are relevant to stochastic processes involving smart components and to collaborative social endeavors, for instance, crowdsourcing scientific knowledge production with online games.

[Review of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)].

PubMed

Che, Ming-Liang; Chen, Bao-Zhang; Wang, Ying; Guo, Xiang-Yun

2014-01-01

Dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) is an important and efficient tool for study on the terrestrial carbon circle processes and vegetation dynamics. This paper reviewed the development history of DGVMs, introduced the basic structure of DGVMs, and the outlines of several world-widely used DGVMs, including CLM-DGVM, LPJ, IBIS and SEIB. The shortages of the description of dynamic vegetation mechanisms in the current DGVMs were proposed, including plant functional types (PFT) scheme, vegetation competition, disturbance, and phenology. Then the future research directions of DGVMs were pointed out, i. e. improving the PFT scheme, refining the vegetation dynamic mechanism, and implementing a model inter-comparison project.

Stochastic nonlinear dynamics pattern formation and growth models

PubMed Central

Yaroslavsky, Leonid P

2007-01-01

Stochastic evolutionary growth and pattern formation models are treated in a unified way in terms of algorithmic models of nonlinear dynamic systems with feedback built of a standard set of signal processing units. A number of concrete models is described and illustrated by numerous examples of artificially generated patterns that closely imitate wide variety of patterns found in the nature. PMID:17908341

Carbon-Flow-Based Modeling of Ecophysiological Processes and Biomass Dynamics of Submersed Aquatic Plants

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

simulation modeling approach to describing carbon- flow-based, ecophysiological processes and biomass dynamics of fresh- water submersed aquatic plant...the distribution and abundance of SAV. In aquatic systems a small part of the irradiance can be reflected by the water surface, and further...to the fact that water temperatures in the lake were relatively low compared to air tem- peratures because of the large inflow of groundwater (Titus

Development of an Aeroelastic Modeling Capability for Transient Nozzle Side Load Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Ten-See; Zhao, Xiang; Zhang, Sijun; Chen, Yen-Sen

2013-01-01

Lateral nozzle forces are known to cause severe structural damage to any new rocket engine in development. Currently there is no fully coupled computational tool to analyze this fluid/structure interaction process. The objective of this study was to develop a fully coupled aeroelastic modeling capability to describe the fluid/structure interaction process during the transient nozzle operations. The aeroelastic model composes of three components: the computational fluid dynamics component based on an unstructured-grid, pressure-based computational fluid dynamics formulation, the computational structural dynamics component developed in the framework of modal analysis, and the fluid-structural interface component. The developed aeroelastic model was applied to the transient nozzle startup process of the Space Shuttle Main Engine at sea level. The computed nozzle side loads and the axial nozzle wall pressure profiles from the aeroelastic nozzle are compared with those of the published rigid nozzle results, and the impact of the fluid/structure interaction on nozzle side loads is interrogated and presented.

Brownian dynamics simulations of sequence-dependent duplex denaturation in dynamically superhelical DNA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mielke, Steven P.; Grønbech-Jensen, Niels; Krishnan, V. V.; Fink, William H.; Benham, Craig J.

2005-09-01

The topological state of DNA in vivo is dynamically regulated by a number of processes that involve interactions with bound proteins. In one such process, the tracking of RNA polymerase along the double helix during transcription, restriction of rotational motion of the polymerase and associated structures, generates waves of overtwist downstream and undertwist upstream from the site of transcription. The resulting superhelical stress is often sufficient to drive double-stranded DNA into a denatured state at locations such as promoters and origins of replication, where sequence-specific duplex opening is a prerequisite for biological function. In this way, transcription and other events that actively supercoil the DNA provide a mechanism for dynamically coupling genetic activity with regulatory and other cellular processes. Although computer modeling has provided insight into the equilibrium dynamics of DNA supercoiling, to date no model has appeared for simulating sequence-dependent DNA strand separation under the nonequilibrium conditions imposed by the dynamic introduction of torsional stress. Here, we introduce such a model and present results from an initial set of computer simulations in which the sequences of dynamically superhelical, 147 base pair DNA circles were systematically altered in order to probe the accuracy with which the model can predict location, extent, and time of stress-induced duplex denaturation. The results agree both with well-tested statistical mechanical calculations and with available experimental information. Additionally, we find that sites susceptible to denaturation show a propensity for localizing to supercoil apices, suggesting that base sequence determines locations of strand separation not only through the energetics of interstrand interactions, but also by influencing the geometry of supercoiling.

Brownian dynamics simulations of sequence-dependent duplex denaturation in dynamically superhelical DNA.

PubMed

Mielke, Steven P; Grønbech-Jensen, Niels; Krishnan, V V; Fink, William H; Benham, Craig J

2005-09-22

The topological state of DNA in vivo is dynamically regulated by a number of processes that involve interactions with bound proteins. In one such process, the tracking of RNA polymerase along the double helix during transcription, restriction of rotational motion of the polymerase and associated structures, generates waves of overtwist downstream and undertwist upstream from the site of transcription. The resulting superhelical stress is often sufficient to drive double-stranded DNA into a denatured state at locations such as promoters and origins of replication, where sequence-specific duplex opening is a prerequisite for biological function. In this way, transcription and other events that actively supercoil the DNA provide a mechanism for dynamically coupling genetic activity with regulatory and other cellular processes. Although computer modeling has provided insight into the equilibrium dynamics of DNA supercoiling, to date no model has appeared for simulating sequence-dependent DNA strand separation under the nonequilibrium conditions imposed by the dynamic introduction of torsional stress. Here, we introduce such a model and present results from an initial set of computer simulations in which the sequences of dynamically superhelical, 147 base pair DNA circles were systematically altered in order to probe the accuracy with which the model can predict location, extent, and time of stress-induced duplex denaturation. The results agree both with well-tested statistical mechanical calculations and with available experimental information. Additionally, we find that sites susceptible to denaturation show a propensity for localizing to supercoil apices, suggesting that base sequence determines locations of strand separation not only through the energetics of interstrand interactions, but also by influencing the geometry of supercoiling.

Micro-level dynamics of the online information propagation: A user behavior model based on noisy spiking neurons.

PubMed

Lymperopoulos, Ilias N; Ioannou, George D

2016-10-01

We develop and validate a model of the micro-level dynamics underlying the formation of macro-level information propagation patterns in online social networks. In particular, we address the dynamics at the level of the mechanism regulating a user's participation in an online information propagation process. We demonstrate that this mechanism can be realistically described by the dynamics of noisy spiking neurons driven by endogenous and exogenous, deterministic and stochastic stimuli representing the influence modulating one's intention to be an information spreader. Depending on the dynamically changing influence characteristics, time-varying propagation patterns emerge reflecting the temporal structure, strength, and signal-to-noise ratio characteristics of the stimulation driving the online users' information sharing activity. The proposed model constitutes an overarching, novel, and flexible approach to the modeling of the micro-level mechanisms whereby information propagates in online social networks. As such, it can be used for a comprehensive understanding of the online transmission of information, a process integral to the sociocultural evolution of modern societies. The proposed model is highly adaptable and suitable for the study of the propagation patterns of behavior, opinions, and innovations among others. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Satellite-enhanced dynamical downscaling for the analysis of extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, Ana M. B.

2016-09-01

The use of regional models in the downscaling of general circulation models provides a strategy to generate more detailed climate information. In that case, boundary-forcing techniques can be useful to maintain the large-scale features from the coarse-resolution global models in agreement with the inner modes of the higher-resolution regional models. Although those procedures might improve dynamics, downscaling via regional modeling still aims for better representation of physical processes. With the purpose of improving dynamics and physical processes in regional downscaling of global reanalysis, the Regional Spectral Model—originally developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction—employs a newly reformulated scale-selective bias correction, together with the 3-hourly assimilation of the satellite-based precipitation estimates constructed from the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique. The two-scheme technique for the dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis can be applied in analyses of environmental disasters and risk assessment, with hourly outputs, and resolution of about 25 km. Here the satellite-enhanced dynamical downscaling added value is demonstrated in simulations of the first reported hurricane in the western South Atlantic Ocean basin through comparisons with global reanalyses and satellite products available in ocean areas.

Statistical mechanical approach to secondary processes and structural relaxation in glasses and glass formers: a leading model to describe the onset of Johari-Goldstein processes and their relationship with fully cooperative processes.

PubMed

Crisanti, A; Leuzzi, L; Paoluzzi, M

2011-09-01

The interrelation of dynamic processes active on separated time-scales in glasses and viscous liquids is investigated using a model displaying two time-scale bifurcations both between fast and secondary relaxation and between secondary and structural relaxation. The study of the dynamics allows for predictions on the system relaxation above the temperature of dynamic arrest in the mean-field approximation, that are compared with the outcomes of the equations of motion directly derived within the Mode Coupling Theory (MCT) for under-cooled viscous liquids. By varying the external thermodynamic parameters, a wide range of phenomenology can be represented, from a very clear separation of structural and secondary peak in the susceptibility loss to excess wing structures.

Identifying and tracking dynamic processes in social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, Wayne; Savell, Robert; Schütt, Jan-Peter; Cybenko, George

2006-05-01

The detection and tracking of embedded malicious subnets in an active social network can be computationally daunting due to the quantity of transactional data generated in the natural interaction of large numbers of actors comprising a network. In addition, detection of illicit behavior may be further complicated by evasive strategies designed to camouflage the activities of the covert subnet. In this work, we move beyond traditional static methods of social network analysis to develop a set of dynamic process models which encode various modes of behavior in active social networks. These models will serve as the basis for a new application of the Process Query System (PQS) to the identification and tracking of covert dynamic processes in social networks. We present a preliminary result from application of our technique in a real-world data stream-- the Enron email corpus.

Branching dynamics of viral information spreading.

PubMed

Iribarren, José Luis; Moro, Esteban

2011-10-01

Despite its importance for rumors or innovations propagation, peer-to-peer collaboration, social networking, or marketing, the dynamics of information spreading is not well understood. Since the diffusion depends on the heterogeneous patterns of human behavior and is driven by the participants' decisions, its propagation dynamics shows surprising properties not explained by traditional epidemic or contagion models. Here we present a detailed analysis of our study of real viral marketing campaigns where tracking the propagation of a controlled message allowed us to analyze the structure and dynamics of a diffusion graph involving over 31,000 individuals. We found that information spreading displays a non-Markovian branching dynamics that can be modeled by a two-step Bellman-Harris branching process that generalizes the static models known in the literature and incorporates the high variability of human behavior. It explains accurately all the features of information propagation under the "tipping point" and can be used for prediction and management of viral information spreading processes.

Branching dynamics of viral information spreading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iribarren, José Luis; Moro, Esteban

2011-10-01

Despite its importance for rumors or innovations propagation, peer-to-peer collaboration, social networking, or marketing, the dynamics of information spreading is not well understood. Since the diffusion depends on the heterogeneous patterns of human behavior and is driven by the participants’ decisions, its propagation dynamics shows surprising properties not explained by traditional epidemic or contagion models. Here we present a detailed analysis of our study of real viral marketing campaigns where tracking the propagation of a controlled message allowed us to analyze the structure and dynamics of a diffusion graph involving over 31 000 individuals. We found that information spreading displays a non-Markovian branching dynamics that can be modeled by a two-step Bellman-Harris branching process that generalizes the static models known in the literature and incorporates the high variability of human behavior. It explains accurately all the features of information propagation under the “tipping point” and can be used for prediction and management of viral information spreading processes.

Nonlinear flight control design using backstepping methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, Thanh Trung

The subject of nonlinear flight control design using backstepping control methodology is investigated in the dissertation research presented here. Control design methods based on nonlinear models of the dynamic system provide higher utility and versatility because the design model more closely matches the physical system behavior. Obtaining requisite model fidelity is only half of the overall design process, however. Design of the nonlinear control loops can lessen the effects of nonlinearity, or even exploit nonlinearity, to achieve higher levels of closed-loop stability, performance, and robustness. The goal of the research is to improve control quality for a general class of strict-feedback dynamic systems and provide flight control architectures to augment the aircraft motion. The research is divided into two parts: theoretical control development for the strict-feedback form of nonlinear dynamic systems and application of the proposed theory for nonlinear flight dynamics. In the first part, the research is built on two components: transforming the nonlinear dynamic model to a canonical strict-feedback form and then applying backstepping control theory to the canonical model. The research considers a process to determine when this transformation is possible, and when it is possible, a systematic process to transfer the model is also considered when practical. When this is not the case, certain modeling assumptions are explored to facilitate the transformation. After achieving the canonical form, a systematic design procedure for formulating a backstepping control law is explored in the research. Starting with the simplest subsystem and ending with the full system, pseudo control concepts based on Lyapunov control functions are used to control each successive subsystem. Typically each pseudo control must be solved from a nonlinear algebraic equation. At the end of this process, the physical control input must be re-expressed in terms of the physical states by eliminating the pseudo control transformations. In the second part, the research focuses on nonlinear control design for flight dynamics of aircraft motion. Some assumptions on aerodynamics of the aircraft are addressed to transform full nonlinear flight dynamics into the canonical strict-feedback form. The assumptions are also analyzed, validated, and compared to show the advantages and disadvantages of the design models. With the achieved models, investigation focuses on formulating the backstepping control laws and provides an advanced control algorithm for nonlinear flight dynamics of the aircraft. Experimental and simulation studies are successfully implemented to validate the proposed control method. Advancement of nonlinear backstepping control theory and its application to nonlinear flight control are achieved in the dissertation research.

Experimental design for dynamics identification of cellular processes.

PubMed

Dinh, Vu; Rundell, Ann E; Buzzard, Gregery T

2014-03-01

We address the problem of using nonlinear models to design experiments to characterize the dynamics of cellular processes by using the approach of the Maximally Informative Next Experiment (MINE), which was introduced in W. Dong et al. (PLoS ONE 3(8):e3105, 2008) and independently in M.M. Donahue et al. (IET Syst. Biol. 4:249-262, 2010). In this approach, existing data is used to define a probability distribution on the parameters; the next measurement point is the one that yields the largest model output variance with this distribution. Building upon this approach, we introduce the Expected Dynamics Estimator (EDE), which is the expected value using this distribution of the output as a function of time. We prove the consistency of this estimator (uniform convergence to true dynamics) even when the chosen experiments cluster in a finite set of points. We extend this proof of consistency to various practical assumptions on noisy data and moderate levels of model mismatch. Through the derivation and proof, we develop a relaxed version of MINE that is more computationally tractable and robust than the original formulation. The results are illustrated with numerical examples on two nonlinear ordinary differential equation models of biomolecular and cellular processes.

Dynamic rain fade compensation techniques for the advanced communications technology satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manning, Robert M.

1992-01-01

The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above the 30/20 GHz Ka band necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory. The ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model discerns climatological variations on the order of 0.5 deg in latitude and longitude in the continental U.S. The time-dependent portion of the model gives precise availability predictions for the 'spot beam' links of ACTS. However, the structure of the dynamic portion of the model, which yields performance parameters such as fade duration probabilities, is isomorphic to the state-variable approach of stochastic control theory and is amenable to the design of such statistical fade processing schemes which can be made specific to the particular climatological location at which they are employed.

Studies on Manfred Eigen's model for the self-organization of information processing.

PubMed

Ebeling, W; Feistel, R

2018-05-01

In 1971, Manfred Eigen extended the principles of Darwinian evolution to chemical processes, from catalytic networks to the emergence of information processing at the molecular level, leading to the emergence of life. In this paper, we investigate some very general characteristics of this scenario, such as the valuation process of phenotypic traits in a high-dimensional fitness landscape, the effect of spatial compartmentation on the valuation, and the self-organized transition from structural to symbolic genetic information of replicating chain molecules. In the first part, we perform an analysis of typical dynamical properties of continuous dynamical models of evolutionary processes. In particular, we study the mapping of genotype to continuous phenotype spaces following the ideas of Wright and Conrad. We investigate typical features of a Schrödinger-like dynamics, the consequences of the high dimensionality, the leading role of saddle points, and Conrad's extra-dimensional bypass. In the last part, we discuss in brief the valuation of compartment models and the self-organized emergence of molecular symbols at the beginning of life.

Nonlinear Dynamic Models in Advanced Life Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry

2002-01-01

To facilitate analysis, ALS systems are often assumed to be linear and time invariant, but they usually have important nonlinear and dynamic aspects. Nonlinear dynamic behavior can be caused by time varying inputs, changes in system parameters, nonlinear system functions, closed loop feedback delays, and limits on buffer storage or processing rates. Dynamic models are usually cataloged according to the number of state variables. The simplest dynamic models are linear, using only integration, multiplication, addition, and subtraction of the state variables. A general linear model with only two state variables can produce all the possible dynamic behavior of linear systems with many state variables, including stability, oscillation, or exponential growth and decay. Linear systems can be described using mathematical analysis. Nonlinear dynamics can be fully explored only by computer simulations of models. Unexpected behavior is produced by simple models having only two or three state variables with simple mathematical relations between them. Closed loop feedback delays are a major source of system instability. Exceeding limits on buffer storage or processing rates forces systems to change operating mode. Different equilibrium points may be reached from different initial conditions. Instead of one stable equilibrium point, the system may have several equilibrium points, oscillate at different frequencies, or even behave chaotically, depending on the system inputs and initial conditions. The frequency spectrum of an output oscillation may contain harmonics and the sums and differences of input frequencies, but it may also contain a stable limit cycle oscillation not related to input frequencies. We must investigate the nonlinear dynamic aspects of advanced life support systems to understand and counter undesirable behavior.

Understanding rapid evolution in predator‐prey interactions using the theory of fast‐slow dynamical systems.

PubMed

Cortez, Michael H; Ellner, Stephen P

2010-11-01

The accumulation of evidence that ecologically important traits often evolve at the same time and rate as ecological dynamics (e.g., changes in species' abundances or spatial distributions) has outpaced theory describing the interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes with comparable timescales. The disparity between experiment and theory is partially due to the high dimensionality of models that include both evolutionary and ecological dynamics. Here we show how the theory of fast-slow dynamical systems can be used to reduce model dimension, and we use that body of theory to study a general predator-prey system exhibiting fast evolution in either the predator or the prey. Our approach yields graphical methods with predictive power about when new and unique dynamics (e.g., completely out-of-phase oscillations and cryptic dynamics) can arise in ecological systems exhibiting fast evolution. In addition, we derive analytical expressions for determining when such behavior arises and how evolution affects qualitative properties of the ecological dynamics. Finally, while the theory requires a separation of timescales between the ecological and evolutionary processes, our approach yields insight into systems where the rates of those processes are comparable and thus is a step toward creating a general ecoevolutionary theory.

Software tools for data modelling and processing of human body temperature circadian dynamics.

PubMed

Petrova, Elena S; Afanasova, Anastasia I

2015-01-01

This paper is presenting a software development for simulating and processing thermometry data. The motivation of this research is the miniaturization of actuators attached to human body which allow frequent temperature measurements and improve the medical diagnosis procedures related to circadian dynamics.

Dynamic divisive normalization predicts time-varying value coding in decision-related circuits.

PubMed

Louie, Kenway; LoFaro, Thomas; Webb, Ryan; Glimcher, Paul W

2014-11-26

Normalization is a widespread neural computation, mediating divisive gain control in sensory processing and implementing a context-dependent value code in decision-related frontal and parietal cortices. Although decision-making is a dynamic process with complex temporal characteristics, most models of normalization are time-independent and little is known about the dynamic interaction of normalization and choice. Here, we show that a simple differential equation model of normalization explains the characteristic phasic-sustained pattern of cortical decision activity and predicts specific normalization dynamics: value coding during initial transients, time-varying value modulation, and delayed onset of contextual information. Empirically, we observe these predicted dynamics in saccade-related neurons in monkey lateral intraparietal cortex. Furthermore, such models naturally incorporate a time-weighted average of past activity, implementing an intrinsic reference-dependence in value coding. These results suggest that a single network mechanism can explain both transient and sustained decision activity, emphasizing the importance of a dynamic view of normalization in neural coding. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/3416046-12$15.00/0.

A REVIEW AND COMPARISON OF MODELS FOR PREDICTING DYNAMIC CHEMICAL BIOCONCENTRATION IN FISH

EPA Science Inventory

Over the past 20 years, a variety of models have been developed to simulate the bioconcentration of hydrophobic organic chemicals by fish. These models differ not only in the processes they address but also in the way a given process is described. Processes described by these m...

The dual process model of coping with bereavement: rationale and description.

PubMed

Stroebe, M; Schut, H

1999-01-01

There are shortcomings in traditional theorizing about effective ways of coping with bereavement, most notably, with respect to the so-called "grief work hypothesis." Criticisms include imprecise definition, failure to represent dynamic processing that is characteristic of grieving, lack of empirical evidence and validation across cultures and historical periods, and a limited focus on intrapersonal processes and on health outcomes. Therefore, a revised model of coping with bereavement, the dual process model, is proposed. This model identifies two types of stressors, loss- and restoration-oriented, and a dynamic, regulatory coping process of oscillation, whereby the grieving individual at times confronts, at other times avoids, the different tasks of grieving. This model proposes that adaptive coping is composed of confrontation--avoidance of loss and restoration stressors. It also argues the need for dosage of grieving, that is, the need to take respite from dealing with either of these stressors, as an integral part of adaptive coping. Empirical research to support this conceptualization is discussed, and the model's relevance to the examination of complicated grief, analysis of subgroup phenomena, as well as interpersonal coping processes, is described.

Cavity master equation for the continuous time dynamics of discrete-spin models.

PubMed

Aurell, E; Del Ferraro, G; Domínguez, E; Mulet, R

2017-05-01

We present an alternate method to close the master equation representing the continuous time dynamics of interacting Ising spins. The method makes use of the theory of random point processes to derive a master equation for local conditional probabilities. We analytically test our solution studying two known cases, the dynamics of the mean-field ferromagnet and the dynamics of the one-dimensional Ising system. We present numerical results comparing our predictions with Monte Carlo simulations in three different models on random graphs with finite connectivity: the Ising ferromagnet, the random field Ising model, and the Viana-Bray spin-glass model.

Cavity master equation for the continuous time dynamics of discrete-spin models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aurell, E.; Del Ferraro, G.; Domínguez, E.; Mulet, R.

2017-05-01

We present an alternate method to close the master equation representing the continuous time dynamics of interacting Ising spins. The method makes use of the theory of random point processes to derive a master equation for local conditional probabilities. We analytically test our solution studying two known cases, the dynamics of the mean-field ferromagnet and the dynamics of the one-dimensional Ising system. We present numerical results comparing our predictions with Monte Carlo simulations in three different models on random graphs with finite connectivity: the Ising ferromagnet, the random field Ising model, and the Viana-Bray spin-glass model.

Mathematical Modeling of Nitrous Oxide Production during Denitrifying Phosphorus Removal Process.

PubMed

Liu, Yiwen; Peng, Lai; Chen, Xueming; Ni, Bing-Jie

2015-07-21

A denitrifying phosphorus removal process undergoes frequent alternating anaerobic/anoxic conditions to achieve phosphate release and uptake, during which microbial internal storage polymers (e.g., Polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA)) could be produced and consumed dynamically. The PHA turnovers play important roles in nitrous oxide (N2O) accumulation during the denitrifying phosphorus removal process. In this work, a mathematical model is developed to describe N2O dynamics and the key role of PHA consumption on N2O accumulation during the denitrifying phosphorus removal process for the first time. In this model, the four-step anoxic storage of polyphosphate and four-step anoxic growth on PHA using nitrate, nitrite, nitric oxide (NO), and N2O consecutively by denitrifying polyphosphate accumulating organisms (DPAOs) are taken into account for describing all potential N2O accumulation steps in the denitrifying phosphorus removal process. The developed model is successfully applied to reproduce experimental data on N2O production obtained from four independent denitrifying phosphorus removal study reports with different experimental conditions. The model satisfactorily describes the N2O accumulation, nitrogen reduction, phosphate release and uptake, and PHA dynamics for all systems, suggesting the validity and applicability of the model. The results indicated a substantial role of PHA consumption in N2O accumulation due to the relatively low N2O reduction rate by using PHA during denitrifying phosphorus removal.

E-Learning Quality Assurance: A Process-Oriented Lifecycle Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abdous, M'hammed

2009-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to propose a process-oriented lifecycle model for ensuring quality in e-learning development and delivery. As a dynamic and iterative process, quality assurance (QA) is intertwined with the e-learning development process. Design/methodology/approach: After reviewing the existing literature, particularly…

Network structure, topology, and dynamics in generalized models of synchronization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lerman, Kristina; Ghosh, Rumi

2012-08-01

Network structure is a product of both its topology and interactions between its nodes. We explore this claim using the paradigm of distributed synchronization in a network of coupled oscillators. As the network evolves to a global steady state, nodes synchronize in stages, revealing the network's underlying community structure. Traditional models of synchronization assume that interactions between nodes are mediated by a conservative process similar to diffusion. However, social and biological processes are often nonconservative. We propose a model of synchronization in a network of oscillators coupled via nonconservative processes. We study the dynamics of synchronization of a synthetic and real-world networks and show that the traditional and nonconservative models of synchronization reveal different structures within the same network.

Ecological communities with Lotka-Volterra dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunin, Guy

2017-04-01

Ecological communities in heterogeneous environments assemble through the combined effect of species interaction and migration. Understanding the effect of these processes on the community properties is central to ecology. Here we study these processes for a single community subject to migration from a pool of species, with population dynamics described by the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations. We derive exact results for the phase diagram describing the dynamical behaviors, and for the diversity and species abundance distributions. A phase transition is found from a phase where a unique globally attractive fixed point exists to a phase where multiple dynamical attractors exist, leading to history-dependent community properties. The model is shown to possess a symmetry that also establishes a connection with other well-known models.

Ecological communities with Lotka-Volterra dynamics.

PubMed

Bunin, Guy

2017-04-01

Ecological communities in heterogeneous environments assemble through the combined effect of species interaction and migration. Understanding the effect of these processes on the community properties is central to ecology. Here we study these processes for a single community subject to migration from a pool of species, with population dynamics described by the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations. We derive exact results for the phase diagram describing the dynamical behaviors, and for the diversity and species abundance distributions. A phase transition is found from a phase where a unique globally attractive fixed point exists to a phase where multiple dynamical attractors exist, leading to history-dependent community properties. The model is shown to possess a symmetry that also establishes a connection with other well-known models.

Cultural ecologies of adaptive vs. maladaptive traits: A simple nonlinear model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoci, Angelo; Russu, Paolo; Sacco, Pier Luigi

2018-05-01

In this paper, we generalize a model by Enquist and Ghirlanda [12] to analyze the "macro" dynamics of cumulative culture in a context where there is a coexistence of adaptive and maladaptive cultural traits. In particular, we introduce a different, nonlinear specification of the main processes at work in the cumulative culture dynamics: imperfect transmission of traits, generation of new traits, and switches from adaptive to maladaptive and vice-versa. We find that the system exhibits a variety of dynamic behaviors where the crucial force is the switching between the adaptive and maladaptive nature of a certain trait, with the other processes playing a modulating role. We identify in particular a number of dynamic regimes with distinctive characteristics.

Analysis of brain patterns using temporal measures

DOEpatents

Georgopoulos, Apostolos

2015-08-11

A set of brain data representing a time series of neurophysiologic activity acquired by spatially distributed sensors arranged to detect neural signaling of a brain (such as by the use of magnetoencephalography) is obtained. The set of brain data is processed to obtain a dynamic brain model based on a set of statistically-independent temporal measures, such as partial cross correlations, among groupings of different time series within the set of brain data. The dynamic brain model represents interactions between neural populations of the brain occurring close in time, such as with zero lag, for example. The dynamic brain model can be analyzed to obtain the neurophysiologic assessment of the brain. Data processing techniques may be used to assess structural or neurochemical brain pathologies.

Hybrid modeling as a QbD/PAT tool in process development: an industrial E. coli case study.

PubMed

von Stosch, Moritz; Hamelink, Jan-Martijn; Oliveira, Rui

2016-05-01

Process understanding is emphasized in the process analytical technology initiative and the quality by design paradigm to be essential for manufacturing of biopharmaceutical products with consistent high quality. A typical approach to developing a process understanding is applying a combination of design of experiments with statistical data analysis. Hybrid semi-parametric modeling is investigated as an alternative method to pure statistical data analysis. The hybrid model framework provides flexibility to select model complexity based on available data and knowledge. Here, a parametric dynamic bioreactor model is integrated with a nonparametric artificial neural network that describes biomass and product formation rates as function of varied fed-batch fermentation conditions for high cell density heterologous protein production with E. coli. Our model can accurately describe biomass growth and product formation across variations in induction temperature, pH and feed rates. The model indicates that while product expression rate is a function of early induction phase conditions, it is negatively impacted as productivity increases. This could correspond with physiological changes due to cytoplasmic product accumulation. Due to the dynamic nature of the model, rational process timing decisions can be made and the impact of temporal variations in process parameters on product formation and process performance can be assessed, which is central for process understanding.

How interactions between animal movement and landscape processes modify range dynamics and extinction risk

EPA Science Inventory

Range dynamics models now incorporate many of the mechanisms and interactions that drive species distributions. However, connectivity continues to be studied using overly simple distance-based dispersal models with little consideration of how the individual behavior of dispersin...

Repeatability Modeling for Wind-Tunnel Measurements: Results for Three Langley Facilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemsch, Michael J.; Houlden, Heather P.

2014-01-01

Data from extensive check standard tests of seven measurement processes in three NASA Langley Research Center wind tunnels are statistically analyzed to test a simple model previously presented in 2000 for characterizing short-term, within-test and across-test repeatability. The analysis is intended to support process improvement and development of uncertainty models for the measurements. The analysis suggests that the repeatability can be estimated adequately as a function of only the test section dynamic pressure over a two-orders- of-magnitude dynamic pressure range. As expected for low instrument loading, short-term coefficient repeatability is determined by the resolution of the instrument alone (air off). However, as previously pointed out, for the highest dynamic pressure range the coefficient repeatability appears to be independent of dynamic pressure, thus presenting a lower floor for the standard deviation for all three time frames. The simple repeatability model is shown to be adequate for all of the cases presented and for all three time frames.

FATE-HD: A spatially and temporally explicit integrated model for predicting vegetation structure and diversity at regional scale

PubMed Central

Isabelle, Boulangeat; Damien, Georges; Wilfried, Thuiller

2014-01-01

During the last decade, despite strenuous efforts to develop new models and compare different approaches, few conclusions have been drawn on their ability to provide robust biodiversity projections in an environmental change context. The recurring suggestions are that models should explicitly (i) include spatiotemporal dynamics; (ii) consider multiple species in interactions; and (iii) account for the processes shaping biodiversity distribution. This paper presents a biodiversity model (FATE-HD) that meets this challenge at regional scale by combining phenomenological and process-based approaches and using well-defined plant functional groups. FATE-HD has been tested and validated in a French National Park, demonstrating its ability to simulate vegetation dynamics, structure and diversity in response to disturbances and climate change. The analysis demonstrated the importance of considering biotic interactions, spatio-temporal dynamics, and disturbances in addition to abiotic drivers to simulate vegetation dynamics. The distribution of pioneer trees was particularly improved, as were all undergrowth functional groups. PMID:24214499

Effect of river flow fluctuations on riparian vegetation dynamics: Processes and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vesipa, Riccardo; Camporeale, Carlo; Ridolfi, Luca

2017-12-01

Several decades of field observations, laboratory experiments and mathematical modelings have demonstrated that the riparian environment is a disturbance-driven ecosystem, and that the main source of disturbance is river flow fluctuations. The focus of the present work has been on the key role that flow fluctuations play in determining the abundance, zonation and species composition of patches of riparian vegetation. To this aim, the scientific literature on the subject, over the last 20 years, has been reviewed. First, the most relevant ecological, morphological and chemical mechanisms induced by river flow fluctuations are described from a process-based perspective. The role of flow variability is discussed for the processes that affect the recruitment of vegetation, the vegetation during its adult life, and the morphological and nutrient dynamics occurring in the riparian habitat. Particular emphasis has been given to studies that were aimed at quantifying the effect of these processes on vegetation, and at linking them to the statistical characteristics of the river hydrology. Second, the advances made, from a modeling point of view, have been considered and discussed. The main models that have been developed to describe the dynamics of riparian vegetation have been presented. Different modeling approaches have been compared, and the corresponding advantages and drawbacks have been pointed out. Finally, attention has been paid to identifying the processes considered by the models, and these processes have been compared with those that have actually been observed or measured in field/laboratory studies.

Spreading dynamics on complex networks: a general stochastic approach.

PubMed

Noël, Pierre-André; Allard, Antoine; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Marceau, Vincent; Dubé, Louis J

2014-12-01

Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach is especially well adapted for modelling spreading processes and/or population dynamics. In particular, the generality of our framework and the fact that its assumptions are explicitly stated suggests that it could be used as a common ground for comparing existing epidemics models too complex for direct comparison, such as agent-based computer simulations. We provide many examples for the special cases of susceptible-infectious-susceptible and susceptible-infectious-removed dynamics (e.g., epidemics propagation) and we observe multiple situations where accurate results may be obtained at low computational cost. Our perspective reveals a subtle balance between the complex requirements of a realistic model and its basic assumptions.

A dynamic integrated fault diagnosis method for power transformers.

PubMed

Gao, Wensheng; Bai, Cuifen; Liu, Tong

2015-01-01

In order to diagnose transformer fault efficiently and accurately, a dynamic integrated fault diagnosis method based on Bayesian network is proposed in this paper. First, an integrated fault diagnosis model is established based on the causal relationship among abnormal working conditions, failure modes, and failure symptoms of transformers, aimed at obtaining the most possible failure mode. And then considering the evidence input into the diagnosis model is gradually acquired and the fault diagnosis process in reality is multistep, a dynamic fault diagnosis mechanism is proposed based on the integrated fault diagnosis model. Different from the existing one-step diagnosis mechanism, it includes a multistep evidence-selection process, which gives the most effective diagnostic test to be performed in next step. Therefore, it can reduce unnecessary diagnostic tests and improve the accuracy and efficiency of diagnosis. Finally, the dynamic integrated fault diagnosis method is applied to actual cases, and the validity of this method is verified.

A Dynamic Integrated Fault Diagnosis Method for Power Transformers

PubMed Central

Gao, Wensheng; Liu, Tong

2015-01-01

In order to diagnose transformer fault efficiently and accurately, a dynamic integrated fault diagnosis method based on Bayesian network is proposed in this paper. First, an integrated fault diagnosis model is established based on the causal relationship among abnormal working conditions, failure modes, and failure symptoms of transformers, aimed at obtaining the most possible failure mode. And then considering the evidence input into the diagnosis model is gradually acquired and the fault diagnosis process in reality is multistep, a dynamic fault diagnosis mechanism is proposed based on the integrated fault diagnosis model. Different from the existing one-step diagnosis mechanism, it includes a multistep evidence-selection process, which gives the most effective diagnostic test to be performed in next step. Therefore, it can reduce unnecessary diagnostic tests and improve the accuracy and efficiency of diagnosis. Finally, the dynamic integrated fault diagnosis method is applied to actual cases, and the validity of this method is verified. PMID:25685841

Dynamical processes and epidemic threshold on nonlinear coupled multiplex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chao; Tang, Shaoting; Li, Weihua; Yang, Yaqian; Zheng, Zhiming

2018-04-01

Recently, the interplay between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion has aroused the interest of many researchers, who have studied models mainly based on linear coupling relations between information and epidemic layers. However, in real-world networks the relation between two layers may be closely correlated with the property of individual nodes and exhibits nonlinear dynamical features. Here we propose a nonlinear coupled information-epidemic model (I-E model) and present a comprehensive analysis in a more generalized scenario where the upload rate differs from node to node, deletion rate varies between susceptible and infected states, and infection rate changes between unaware and aware states. In particular, we develop a theoretical framework of the intra- and inter-layer dynamical processes with a microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), and derive an analytic epidemic threshold. Our results suggest that the change of upload and deletion rate has little effect on the diffusion dynamics in the epidemic layer.

Nonlinear dynamics in flow through unsaturated fractured-porous media: Status and perspectives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Faybishenko, Boris

2002-11-27

The need has long been recognized to improve predictions of flow and transport in partially saturated heterogeneous soils and fractured rock of the vadose zone for many practical applications, such as remediation of contaminated sites, nuclear waste disposal in geological formations, and climate predictions. Until recently, flow and transport processes in heterogeneous subsurface media with oscillating irregularities were assumed to be random and were not analyzed using methods of nonlinear dynamics. The goals of this paper are to review the theoretical concepts, present the results, and provide perspectives on investigations of flow and transport in unsaturated heterogeneous soils and fracturedmore » rock, using the methods of nonlinear dynamics and deterministic chaos. The results of laboratory and field investigations indicate that the nonlinear dynamics of flow and transport processes in unsaturated soils and fractured rocks arise from the dynamic feedback and competition between various nonlinear physical processes along with complex geometry of flow paths. Although direct measurements of variables characterizing the individual flow processes are not technically feasible, their cumulative effect can be characterized by analyzing time series data using the models and methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos. Identifying flow through soil or rock as a nonlinear dynamical system is important for developing appropriate short- and long-time predictive models, evaluating prediction uncertainty, assessing the spatial distribution of flow characteristics from time series data, and improving chemical transport simulations. Inferring the nature of flow processes through the methods of nonlinear dynamics could become widely used in different areas of the earth sciences.« less

Hybrid Cubature Kalman filtering for identifying nonlinear models from sampled recording: Estimation of neuronal dynamics.

PubMed

Madi, Mahmoud K; Karameh, Fadi N

2017-01-01

Kalman filtering methods have long been regarded as efficient adaptive Bayesian techniques for estimating hidden states in models of linear dynamical systems under Gaussian uncertainty. Recent advents of the Cubature Kalman filter (CKF) have extended this efficient estimation property to nonlinear systems, and also to hybrid nonlinear problems where by the processes are continuous and the observations are discrete (continuous-discrete CD-CKF). Employing CKF techniques, therefore, carries high promise for modeling many biological phenomena where the underlying processes exhibit inherently nonlinear, continuous, and noisy dynamics and the associated measurements are uncertain and time-sampled. This paper investigates the performance of cubature filtering (CKF and CD-CKF) in two flagship problems arising in the field of neuroscience upon relating brain functionality to aggregate neurophysiological recordings: (i) estimation of the firing dynamics and the neural circuit model parameters from electric potentials (EP) observations, and (ii) estimation of the hemodynamic model parameters and the underlying neural drive from BOLD (fMRI) signals. First, in simulated neural circuit models, estimation accuracy was investigated under varying levels of observation noise (SNR), process noise structures, and observation sampling intervals (dt). When compared to the CKF, the CD-CKF consistently exhibited better accuracy for a given SNR, sharp accuracy increase with higher SNR, and persistent error reduction with smaller dt. Remarkably, CD-CKF accuracy shows only a mild deterioration for non-Gaussian process noise, specifically with Poisson noise, a commonly assumed form of background fluctuations in neuronal systems. Second, in simulated hemodynamic models, parametric estimates were consistently improved under CD-CKF. Critically, time-localization of the underlying neural drive, a determinant factor in fMRI-based functional connectivity studies, was significantly more accurate under CD-CKF. In conclusion, and with the CKF recently benchmarked against other advanced Bayesian techniques, the CD-CKF framework could provide significant gains in robustness and accuracy when estimating a variety of biological phenomena models where the underlying process dynamics unfold at time scales faster than those seen in collected measurements.

Hybrid Cubature Kalman filtering for identifying nonlinear models from sampled recording: Estimation of neuronal dynamics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Kalman filtering methods have long been regarded as efficient adaptive Bayesian techniques for estimating hidden states in models of linear dynamical systems under Gaussian uncertainty. Recent advents of the Cubature Kalman filter (CKF) have extended this efficient estimation property to nonlinear systems, and also to hybrid nonlinear problems where by the processes are continuous and the observations are discrete (continuous-discrete CD-CKF). Employing CKF techniques, therefore, carries high promise for modeling many biological phenomena where the underlying processes exhibit inherently nonlinear, continuous, and noisy dynamics and the associated measurements are uncertain and time-sampled. This paper investigates the performance of cubature filtering (CKF and CD-CKF) in two flagship problems arising in the field of neuroscience upon relating brain functionality to aggregate neurophysiological recordings: (i) estimation of the firing dynamics and the neural circuit model parameters from electric potentials (EP) observations, and (ii) estimation of the hemodynamic model parameters and the underlying neural drive from BOLD (fMRI) signals. First, in simulated neural circuit models, estimation accuracy was investigated under varying levels of observation noise (SNR), process noise structures, and observation sampling intervals (dt). When compared to the CKF, the CD-CKF consistently exhibited better accuracy for a given SNR, sharp accuracy increase with higher SNR, and persistent error reduction with smaller dt. Remarkably, CD-CKF accuracy shows only a mild deterioration for non-Gaussian process noise, specifically with Poisson noise, a commonly assumed form of background fluctuations in neuronal systems. Second, in simulated hemodynamic models, parametric estimates were consistently improved under CD-CKF. Critically, time-localization of the underlying neural drive, a determinant factor in fMRI-based functional connectivity studies, was significantly more accurate under CD-CKF. In conclusion, and with the CKF recently benchmarked against other advanced Bayesian techniques, the CD-CKF framework could provide significant gains in robustness and accuracy when estimating a variety of biological phenomena models where the underlying process dynamics unfold at time scales faster than those seen in collected measurements. PMID:28727850

Health behavior change in advance care planning: an agent-based model.

PubMed

Ernecoff, Natalie C; Keane, Christopher R; Albert, Steven M

2016-02-29

A practical and ethical challenge in advance care planning research is controlling and intervening on human behavior. Additionally, observing dynamic changes in advance care planning (ACP) behavior proves difficult, though tracking changes over time is important for intervention development. Agent-based modeling (ABM) allows researchers to integrate complex behavioral data about advance care planning behaviors and thought processes into a controlled environment that is more easily alterable and observable. Literature to date has not addressed how best to motivate individuals, increase facilitators and reduce barriers associated with ACP. We aimed to build an ABM that applies the Transtheoretical Model of behavior change to ACP as a health behavior and accurately reflects: 1) the rates at which individuals complete the process, 2) how individuals respond to barriers, facilitators, and behavioral variables, and 3) the interactions between these variables. We developed a dynamic ABM of the ACP decision making process based on the stages of change posited by the Transtheoretical Model. We integrated barriers, facilitators, and other behavioral variables that agents encounter as they move through the process. We successfully incorporated ACP barriers, facilitators, and other behavioral variables into our ABM, forming a plausible representation of ACP behavior and decision-making. The resulting distributions across the stages of change replicated those found in the literature, with approximately half of participants in the action-maintenance stage in both the model and the literature. Our ABM is a useful method for representing dynamic social and experiential influences on the ACP decision making process. This model suggests structural interventions, e.g. increasing access to ACP materials in primary care clinics, in addition to improved methods of data collection for behavioral studies, e.g. incorporating longitudinal data to capture behavioral dynamics.

Mechanistic modeling of thermo-hydrological processes and microbial interactions at pore to profile scales resolve methane emission dynamics from permafrost soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebrahimi, Ali; Or, Dani

2017-04-01

The sensitivity of the Earth's polar regions to raising global temperatures is reflected in rapidly changing hydrological processes with pronounced seasonal thawing of permafrost soil and increased biological activity. Of particular concern is the potential release of large amounts of soil carbon and the stimulation of other soil-borne GHG emissions such as methane. Soil methanotrophic and methanogenic microbial communities rapidly adjust their activity and spatial organization in response to permafrost thawing and a host of other environmental factors. Soil structural elements such as aggregates and layering and hydration status affect oxygen and nutrient diffusion processes thereby contributing to methanogenic activity within temporal anoxic niches (hotspots or hot-layers). We developed a mechanistic individual based model to quantify microbial activity dynamics within soil pore networks considering, hydration, temperature, transport processes and enzymatic activity associated with methane production in soil. The model was the upscaled from single aggregates (or hotspots) to quantifying emissions from soil profiles in which freezing/thawing processes provide macroscopic boundary conditions for microbial activity at different soil depths. The model distinguishes microbial activity in aerate bulk soil from aggregates (or submerged parts of the profile) for resolving methane production and oxidation rates. Methane transport pathways through soil by diffusion and ebullition of bubbles vary with hydration dynamics and affect emission patterns. The model links seasonal thermal and hydrologic dynamics with evolution of microbial community composition and function affecting net methane emissions in good agreement with experimental data. The mechanistic model enables systematic evaluation of key controlling factors in thawing permafrost and microbial response (e.g., nutrient availability, enzyme activity, PH) on long term methane emissions and carbon decomposition rates in the rapidly changing polar regions.

Fundamental properties of cooperative contagion processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Li; Ghanbarnejad, Fakhteh; Brockmann, Dirk

2017-10-01

We investigate the effects of cooperativity between contagion processes that spread and persist in a host population. We propose and analyze a dynamical model in which individuals that are affected by one transmissible agent A exhibit a higher than baseline propensity of being affected by a second agent B and vice versa. The model is a natural extension of the traditional susceptible-infected-susceptible model used for modeling single contagion processes. We show that cooperativity changes the dynamics of the system considerably when cooperativity is strong. The system exhibits discontinuous phase transitions not observed in single agent contagion, multi-stability, a separation of the traditional epidemic threshold into different thresholds for inception and extinction as well as hysteresis. These properties are robust and are corroborated by stochastic simulations on lattices and generic network topologies. Finally, we investigate wave propagation and transients in a spatially extended version of the model and show that especially for intermediate values of baseline reproduction ratios the system is characterized by various types of wave-front speeds. The system can exhibit spatially heterogeneous stationary states for some parameters and negative front speeds (receding wave fronts). The two agent model can be employed as a starting point for more complex contagion processes, involving several interacting agents, a model framework particularly suitable for modeling the spread and dynamics of microbiological ecosystems in host populations.

Fractional-order leaky integrate-and-fire model with long-term memory and power law dynamics.

PubMed

Teka, Wondimu W; Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Mondal, Argha

2017-09-01

Pyramidal neurons produce different spiking patterns to process information, communicate with each other and transform information. These spiking patterns have complex and multiple time scale dynamics that have been described with the fractional-order leaky integrate-and-Fire (FLIF) model. Models with fractional (non-integer) order differentiation that generalize power law dynamics can be used to describe complex temporal voltage dynamics. The main characteristic of FLIF model is that it depends on all past values of the voltage that causes long-term memory. The model produces spikes with high interspike interval variability and displays several spiking properties such as upward spike-frequency adaptation and long spike latency in response to a constant stimulus. We show that the subthreshold voltage and the firing rate of the fractional-order model make transitions from exponential to power law dynamics when the fractional order α decreases from 1 to smaller values. The firing rate displays different types of spike timing adaptation caused by changes on initial values. We also show that the voltage-memory trace and fractional coefficient are the causes of these different types of spiking properties. The voltage-memory trace that represents the long-term memory has a feedback regulatory mechanism and affects spiking activity. The results suggest that fractional-order models might be appropriate for understanding multiple time scale neuronal dynamics. Overall, a neuron with fractional dynamics displays history dependent activities that might be very useful and powerful for effective information processing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of Entropy in Quantum-like Model of Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basieva, Irina; Khrennikov, Andrei; Asano, Masanari; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu

2011-03-01

We present a quantum-like model of decision making in games of the Prisoner's Dilemma type. By this model the brain processes information by using representation of mental states in complex Hilbert space. Driven by the master equation the mental state of a player, say Alice, approaches an equilibrium point in the space of density matrices. By using this equilibrium point Alice determines her mixed (i.e., probabilistic) strategy with respect to Bob. Thus our model is a model of thinking through decoherence of initially pure mental state. Decoherence is induced by interaction with memory and external environment. In this paper we study (numerically) dynamics of quantum entropy of Alice's state in the process of decision making. Our analysis demonstrates that this dynamics depends nontrivially on the initial state of Alice's mind on her own actions and her prediction state (for possible actions of Bob.)

Logic Dynamics for Deductive Inference -- Its Stability and Neural Basis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuda, Ichiro

2014-12-01

We propose a dynamical model that represents a process of deductive inference. We discuss the stability of logic dynamics and a neural basis for the dynamics. We propose a new concept of descriptive stability, thereby enabling a structure of stable descriptions of mathematical models concerning dynamic phenomena to be clarified. The present theory is based on the wider and deeper thoughts of John S. Nicolis. In particular, it is based on our joint paper on the chaos theory of human short-term memories with a magic number of seven plus or minus two.

Determination of the smoke-plume heights and their dynamics with ground-based scanning LIDAR

Treesearch

V. Kovalev; A. Petkov; C. Wold; S. Urbanski; W. M. Hao

2015-01-01

Lidar-data processing techniques are analyzed, which allow determining smoke-plume heights and their dynamics and can be helpful for the improvement of smoke dispersion and air quality models. The data processing algorithms considered in the paper are based on the analysis of two alternative characteristics related to the smoke dispersion process: the regularized...

Scientific Studies of the High-Latitude Ionosphere with the Ionosphere Dynamics and ElectroDynamics - Data Assimilation (IDED-DA) Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-23

conduct simulations with a high-latitude data assimilation model. The specific objectives are to study magnetosphere-ionosphere ( M -I) coupling processes...based on three physics-based models, including a magnetosphere-ionosphere ( M -I) electrodynamics model, an ionosphere model, and a magnetic...inversion code. The ionosphere model is a high-resolution version of the Ionosphere Forecast Model ( IFM ), which is a 3-D, multi-ion model of the ionosphere

Automatic conversational scene analysis in children with Asperger syndrome/high-functioning autism and typically developing peers.

PubMed

Tavano, Alessandro; Pesarin, Anna; Murino, Vittorio; Cristani, Marco

2014-01-01

Individuals with Asperger syndrome/High Functioning Autism fail to spontaneously attribute mental states to the self and others, a life-long phenotypic characteristic known as mindblindness. We hypothesized that mindblindness would affect the dynamics of conversational interaction. Using generative models, in particular Gaussian mixture models and observed influence models, conversations were coded as interacting Markov processes, operating on novel speech/silence patterns, termed Steady Conversational Periods (SCPs). SCPs assume that whenever an agent's process changes state (e.g., from silence to speech), it causes a general transition of the entire conversational process, forcing inter-actant synchronization. SCPs fed into observed influence models, which captured the conversational dynamics of children and adolescents with Asperger syndrome/High Functioning Autism, and age-matched typically developing participants. Analyzing the parameters of the models by means of discriminative classifiers, the dialogs of patients were successfully distinguished from those of control participants. We conclude that meaning-free speech/silence sequences, reflecting inter-actant synchronization, at least partially encode typical and atypical conversational dynamics. This suggests a direct influence of theory of mind abilities onto basic speech initiative behavior.

Computational Modeling and Simulations of Bioparticle Internalization Through Clathrin-mediated Endocytosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Hua; Dutta, Prashanta; Liu, Jin

2016-11-01

Clathrin-mediated endocytosis (CME) is one of the most important endocytic pathways for the internalization of bioparticles at lipid membrane of cells, which plays crucial roles in fundamental understanding of viral infections and interacellular/transcelluar targeted drug delivery. During CME, highly dynamic clathrin-coated pit (CCP), formed by the growth of ordered clathrin lattices, is the key scaffolding component that drives the deformation of plasma membrane. Experimental studies have shown that CCP alone can provide sufficient membrane curvature for facilitating membrane invagination. However, currently there is no computational model that could couple cargo receptor binding with membrane invagination process, nor simulations of the dynamic growing process of CCP. We develop a stochastic computational model for the clathrin-mediated endocytosis based on Metropolis Monte Carlo simulations. In our model, the energetic costs of bending membrane and CCP are linked with antigen-antibody interactions. The assembly of clathrin lattices is a dynamic process that correlates with antigen-antibody bond formation. This model helps study the membrane deformation and the effects of CCP during functionalized bioparticles internalization through CME. This work is supported by NSF Grants: CBET-1250107 and CBET-1604211.

Kramers problem in evolutionary strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunkel, J.; Ebeling, W.; Schimansky-Geier, L.; Hänggi, P.

2003-06-01

We calculate the escape rates of different dynamical processes for the case of a one-dimensional symmetric double-well potential. In particular, we compare the escape rates of a Smoluchowski process, i.e., a corresponding overdamped Brownian motion dynamics in a metastable potential landscape, with the escape rates obtained for a biologically motivated model known as the Fisher-Eigen process. The main difference between the two models is that the dynamics of the Smoluchowski process is determined by local quantities, whereas the Fisher-Eigen process is based on a global coupling (nonlocal interaction). If considered in the context of numerical optimization algorithms, both processes can be interpreted as archetypes of physically or biologically inspired evolutionary strategies. In this sense, the results discussed in this work are utile in order to evaluate the efficiency of such strategies with regard to the problem of surmounting various barriers. We find that a combination of both scenarios, starting with the Fisher-Eigen strategy, provides a most effective evolutionary strategy.

Modelling of creep hysteresis in ferroelectrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xuan; Wang, Dan; Wang, Linxiang; Melnik, Roderick

2018-05-01

In the current paper, a macroscopic model is proposed to simulate the hysteretic dynamics of ferroelectric ceramics with creep phenomenon incorporated. The creep phenomenon in the hysteretic dynamics is attributed to the rate-dependent characteristic of the polarisation switching processes induced in the materials. A non-convex Helmholtz free energy based on Landau theory is proposed to model the switching dynamics. The governing equation of single-crystal model is formulated by applying the Euler-Lagrange equation. The polycrystalline model is obtained by combining the single crystal dynamics with a density function which is constructed to model the weighted contributions of different grains with different principle axis orientations. In addition, numerical simulations of hysteretic dynamics with creep phenomenon are presented. Comparison of the numerical results and their experimental counterparts is also presented. It is shown that the creep phenomenon is captured precisely, validating the capability of the proposed model in a range of its potential applications.

Approach of describing dynamic production of volatile fatty acids from sludge alkaline fermentation.

PubMed

Wang, Dongbo; Liu, Yiwen; Ngo, Huu Hao; Zhang, Chang; Yang, Qi; Peng, Lai; He, Dandan; Zeng, Guangming; Li, Xiaoming; Ni, Bing-Jie

2017-08-01

In this work, a mathematical model was developed to describe the dynamics of fermentation products in sludge alkaline fermentation systems for the first time. In this model, the impacts of alkaline fermentation on sludge disintegration, hydrolysis, acidogenesis, acetogenesis, and methanogenesis processes are specifically considered for describing the high-level formation of fermentation products. The model proposed successfully reproduced the experimental data obtained from five independent sludge alkaline fermentation studies. The modeling results showed that alkaline fermentation largely facilitated the disintegration, acidogenesis, and acetogenesis processes and severely inhibited methanogenesis process. With the pH increase from 7.0 to 10.0, the disintegration, acidogenesis, and acetogenesis processes respectively increased by 53%, 1030%, and 30% while methane production decreased by 3800%. However, no substantial effect on hydrolysis process was found. The model also indicated that the pathway of acetoclastic methanogenesis was more severely inhibited by alkaline condition than that of hydrogentrophic methanogenesis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Formal Specification of Information Systems Requirements.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kampfner, Roberto R.

1985-01-01

Presents a formal model for specification of logical requirements of computer-based information systems that incorporates structural and dynamic aspects based on two separate models: the Logical Information Processing Structure and the Logical Information Processing Network. The model's role in systems development is discussed. (MBR)

Concordance of Interests in Dynamic Models of Social Partnership in the System of Continuing Professional Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tarasenko, Larissa V.; Ougolnitsky, Guennady A.; Usov, Anatoly B.; Vaskov, Maksim A.; Kirik, Vladimir A.; Astoyanz, Margarita S.; Angel, Olga Y.

2016-01-01

A dynamic game theoretic model of concordance of interests in the process of social partnership in the system of continuing professional education is proposed. Non-cooperative, cooperative, and hierarchical setups are examined. Analytical solution for a linear state version of the model is provided. Nash equilibrium algorithms (for non-cooperative…

Group Dynamic Processes in Email Groups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alpay, Esat

2005-01-01

Discussion is given on the relevance of group dynamic processes in promoting decision-making in email discussion groups. General theories on social facilitation and social loafing are considered in the context of email groups, as well as the applicability of psychodynamic and interaction-based models. It is argued that such theories may indeed…

An Ecological Approach to Learning Dynamics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Normak, Peeter; Pata, Kai; Kaipainen, Mauri

2012-01-01

New approaches to emergent learner-directed learning design can be strengthened with a theoretical framework that considers learning as a dynamic process. We propose an approach that models a learning process using a set of spatial concepts: learning space, position of a learner, niche, perspective, step, path, direction of a step and step…

Instructional Dynamics in Two-Year Postsecondary Institutions: Concepts, Trends, and Assessment Issues. Information Series No. 318.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alfred, Richard L.; Hummel, Mary L.

Postsecondary instructional dynamics is a complex process in which inputs (student characteristics and expectations, resources, and faculty characteristics and preparation) are converted through the educational process (instruction strategies, models, and techniques as well as supportive services) into outputs (outcomes and benefits of instruction…

Dynamic Socialized Gaussian Process Models for Human Behavior Prediction in a Health Social Network

PubMed Central

Shen, Yelong; Phan, NhatHai; Xiao, Xiao; Jin, Ruoming; Sun, Junfeng; Piniewski, Brigitte; Kil, David; Dou, Dejing

2016-01-01

Modeling and predicting human behaviors, such as the level and intensity of physical activity, is a key to preventing the cascade of obesity and helping spread healthy behaviors in a social network. In our conference paper, we have developed a social influence model, named Socialized Gaussian Process (SGP), for socialized human behavior modeling. Instead of explicitly modeling social influence as individuals' behaviors influenced by their friends' previous behaviors, SGP models the dynamic social correlation as the result of social influence. The SGP model naturally incorporates personal behavior factor and social correlation factor (i.e., the homophily principle: Friends tend to perform similar behaviors) into a unified model. And it models the social influence factor (i.e., an individual's behavior can be affected by his/her friends) implicitly in dynamic social correlation schemes. The detailed experimental evaluation has shown the SGP model achieves better prediction accuracy compared with most of baseline methods. However, a Socialized Random Forest model may perform better at the beginning compared with the SGP model. One of the main reasons is the dynamic social correlation function is purely based on the users' sequential behaviors without considering other physical activity-related features. To address this issue, we further propose a novel “multi-feature SGP model” (mfSGP) which improves the SGP model by using multiple physical activity-related features in the dynamic social correlation learning. Extensive experimental results illustrate that the mfSGP model clearly outperforms all other models in terms of prediction accuracy and running time. PMID:27746515

Dynamic modeling and control of a solid-sorbent CO{sub 2} capture process with two-stage bubbling fluidized bed adsorber reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Modekurti, S.; Bhattacharyya, D.; Zitney, S.

2012-01-01

Solid-sorbent-based CO{sub 2} capture processes have strong potential for reducing the overall energy penalty for post-combustion capture from the flue gas of a conventional pulverized coal power plant. However, the commercial success of this technology is contingent upon it operating over a wide range of capture rates, transient events, malfunctions, and disturbances, as well as under uncertainties. To study these operational aspects, a dynamic model of a solid-sorbent-based CO{sub 2} capture process has been developed. In this work, a one-dimensional (1D), non-isothermal, dynamic model of a two-stage bubbling fluidized bed (BFB) adsorber-reactor system with overflow-type weir configuration has been developedmore » in Aspen Custom Modeler (ACM). The physical and chemical properties of the sorbent used in this study are based on a sorbent (32D) developed at National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). Each BFB is divided into bubble, emulsion, and cloud-wake regions with the assumptions that the bubble region is free of solids while both gas and solid phases coexist in the emulsion and cloud-wake regions. The BFB dynamic model includes 1D partial differential equations (PDEs) for mass and energy balances, along with comprehensive reaction kinetics. In addition to the two BFB models, the adsorber-reactor system includes 1D PDE-based dynamic models of the downcomer and outlet hopper, as well as models of distributors, control valves, and other pressure-drop devices. Consistent boundary and initial conditions are considered for simulating the dynamic model. Equipment items are sized and appropriate heat transfer options, wherever needed, are provided. Finally, a valid pressure-flow network is developed and a lower-level control system is designed. Using ACM, the transient responses of various process variables such as flue gas and sorbent temperatures, overall CO{sub 2} capture, level of solids in the downcomer and hopper have been studied by simulating typical disturbances such as change in the temperature, flowrate, and composition of the flue gas. To maintain the overall CO{sub 2} capture at a desired level in face of the typical disturbances, two control strategies were considered–a proportional-integral-derivative (PID)-based feedback control strategy and a feedforward-augmented feedback control strategy. Dynamic simulation results show that both the strategies result in unacceptable overshoot/undershoot and a long settling time. To improve the control system performance, a linear model predictive controller (LMPC) is designed. In summary, the overall results illustrate how optimizing the operation and control of carbon capture systems can have a significant impact on the extent and the rate at which commercial-scale capture processes will be scaled-up, deployed, and used in the years to come.« less

The failure of earthquake failure models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.

2001-01-01

In this study I show that simple heuristic models and numerical calculations suggest that an entire class of commonly invoked models of earthquake failure processes cannot explain triggering of seismicity by transient or "dynamic" stress changes, such as stress changes associated with passing seismic waves. The models of this class have the common feature that the physical property characterizing failure increases at an accelerating rate when a fault is loaded (stressed) at a constant rate. Examples include models that invoke rate state friction or subcritical crack growth, in which the properties characterizing failure are slip or crack length, respectively. Failure occurs when the rate at which these grow accelerates to values exceeding some critical threshold. These accelerating failure models do not predict the finite durations of dynamically triggered earthquake sequences (e.g., at aftershock or remote distances). Some of the failure models belonging to this class have been used to explain static stress triggering of aftershocks. This may imply that the physical processes underlying dynamic triggering differs or that currently applied models of static triggering require modification. If the former is the case, we might appeal to physical mechanisms relying on oscillatory deformations such as compaction of saturated fault gouge leading to pore pressure increase, or cyclic fatigue. However, if dynamic and static triggering mechanisms differ, one still needs to ask why static triggering models that neglect these dynamic mechanisms appear to explain many observations. If the static and dynamic triggering mechanisms are the same, perhaps assumptions about accelerating failure and/or that triggering advances the failure times of a population of inevitable earthquakes are incorrect.

Ablation dynamics - from absorption to heat accumulation/ultra-fast laser matter interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kramer, Thorsten; Remund, Stefan; Jäggi, Beat; Schmid, Marc; Neuenschwander, Beat

2018-05-01

Ultra-short laser radiation is used in manifold industrial applications today. Although state-of-the-art laser sources are providing an average power of 10-100 W with repetition rates of up to several megahertz, most applications do not benefit from it. On the one hand, the processing speed is limited to some hundred millimeters per second by the dynamics of mechanical axes or galvanometric scanners. On the other hand, high repetition rates require consideration of new physical effects such as heat accumulation and shielding that might reduce the process efficiency. For ablation processes, process efficiency can be expressed by the specific removal rate, ablated volume per time, and average power. The analysis of the specific removal rate for different laser parameters, like average power, repetition rate or pulse duration, and process parameters, like scanning speed or material, can be used to find the best operation point for microprocessing applications. Analytical models and molecular dynamics simulations based on the so-called two-temperature model reveal the causes for the appearance of limiting physical effects. The findings of models and simulations can be used to take advantage and optimize processing strategies.

Lattice model simulation of interchain protein interactions and the folding dynamics and dimerization of the GCN4 Leucine zipper

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yanxin; Chapagain, Prem P.; Parra, Jose L.; Gerstman, Bernard S.

2008-01-01

The highest level in the hierarchy of protein structure and folding is the formation of protein complexes through protein-protein interactions. We have made modifications to a well established computer lattice model to expand its applicability to two-protein dimerization and aggregation. Based on Brownian dynamics, we implement translation and rotation moves of two peptide chains relative to each other, in addition to the intrachain motions already present in the model. We use this two-chain model to study the folding dynamics of the yeast transcription factor GCN4 leucine zipper. The calculated heat capacity curves agree well with experimental measurements. Free energy landscapes and median first passage times for the folding process are calculated and elucidate experimentally measured characteristics such as the multistate nature of the dimerization process.

Dynamical analysis of surface-insulated planar wire array Z-pinches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yang; Sheng, Liang; Hei, Dongwei; Li, Xingwen; Zhang, Jinhai; Li, Mo; Qiu, Aici

2018-05-01

The ablation and implosion dynamics of planar wire array Z-pinches with and without surface insulation are compared and discussed in this paper. This paper first presents a phenomenological model named the ablation and cascade snowplow implosion (ACSI) model, which accounts for the ablation and implosion phases of a planar wire array Z-pinch in a single simulation. The comparison between experimental data and simulation results shows that the ACSI model could give a fairly good description about the dynamical characteristics of planar wire array Z-pinches. Surface insulation introduces notable differences in the ablation phase of planar wire array Z-pinches. The ablation phase is divided into two stages: insulation layer ablation and tungsten wire ablation. The two-stage ablation process of insulated wires is simulated in the ACSI model by updating the formulas describing the ablation process.

Improving plant functional groups for dynamic models of biodiversity: at the crossroads between functional and community ecology

PubMed Central

Isabelle, Boulangeat; Pauline, Philippe; Sylvain, Abdulhak; Roland, Douzet; Luc, Garraud; Sébastien, Lavergne; Sandra, Lavorel; Jérémie, Van Es; Pascal, Vittoz; Wilfried, Thuiller

2013-01-01

The pace of on-going climate change calls for reliable plant biodiversity scenarios. Traditional dynamic vegetation models use plant functional types that are summarized to such an extent that they become meaningless for biodiversity scenarios. Hybrid dynamic vegetation models of intermediate complexity (hybrid-DVMs) have recently been developed to address this issue. These models, at the crossroads between phenomenological and process-based models, are able to involve an intermediate number of well-chosen plant functional groups (PFGs). The challenge is to build meaningful PFGs that are representative of plant biodiversity, and consistent with the parameters and processes of hybrid-DVMs. Here, we propose and test a framework based on few selected traits to define a limited number of PFGs, which are both representative of the diversity (functional and taxonomic) of the flora in the Ecrins National Park, and adapted to hybrid-DVMs. This new classification scheme, together with recent advances in vegetation modeling, constitutes a step forward for mechanistic biodiversity modeling. PMID:24403847

Investigation of the Dynamic Contact Angle Using a Direct Numerical Simulation Method.

PubMed

Zhu, Guangpu; Yao, Jun; Zhang, Lei; Sun, Hai; Li, Aifen; Shams, Bilal

2016-11-15

A large amount of residual oil, which exists as isolated oil slugs, remains trapped in reservoirs after water flooding. Numerous numerical studies are performed to investigate the fundamental flow mechanism of oil slugs to improve flooding efficiency. Dynamic contact angle models are usually introduced to simulate an accurate contact angle and meniscus displacement of oil slugs under a high capillary number. Nevertheless, in the oil slug flow simulation process, it is unnecessary to introduce the dynamic contact angle model because of a negligible change in the meniscus displacement after using the dynamic contact angle model when the capillary number is small. Therefore, a critical capillary number should be introduced to judge whether the dynamic contact model should be incorporated into simulations. In this study, a direct numerical simulation method is employed to simulate the oil slug flow in a capillary tube at the pore scale. The position of the interface between water and the oil slug is determined using the phase-field method. The capacity and accuracy of the model are validated using a classical benchmark: a dynamic capillary filling process. Then, different dynamic contact angle models and the factors that affect the dynamic contact angle are analyzed. The meniscus displacements of oil slugs with a dynamic contact angle and a static contact angle (SCA) are obtained during simulations, and the relative error between them is calculated automatically. The relative error limit has been defined to be 5%, beyond which the dynamic contact angle model needs to be incorporated into the simulation to approach the realistic displacement. Thus, the desired critical capillary number can be determined. A three-dimensional universal chart of critical capillary number, which functions as static contact angle and viscosity ratio, is given to provide a guideline for oil slug simulation. Also, a fitting formula is presented for ease of use.

Self-Organization Processes at the Intracellular Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponce Dawson, Silvina

2003-03-01

In spite of their relatively small sizes, cells are incredibly complex objects in which various sorts of self-organizing processes occur. Cell division is an example of a process that nearly all cells undergo in which a concerted sequence of events takes place. What are the signals that tell the cell to move along this sequence? Clearly, this is a self-organized process. Microtubules (long polymers that are part of the cytoskeleton) and calcium signals play a major role during cell division. In this course we will focus on some features of microtubule dynamics and calcium signals that are amenable to modeling. In both of these biological systems, behaviors at a single molecule level are key determinants of the self-organized dynamics that is observed at larger scales. Thus, the modeling of these systems presents interesting challenges which require novel strategies. Their study may not only provide answers for biologically motivated questions, but is also a natural setting in which the transition between particle-like and mean-field models can be explored. In this course we will first give a brief biological introduction on the structure of eukaryotic cells, microtubule dynamics and intracellular calcium signals. We will then describe some of the models that have been presented in the literature and discuss the spatio-temporal dynamics that they predict, comparing them with observed behaviors in vitro or in vivo. We will end with a discussion on the virtues and limitations of the various modeling strategies described.

Nonequilibrium phase transitions in isotropic Ashkin-Teller model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akıncı, Ümit

2017-03-01

Dynamic behavior of an isotropic Ashkin-Teller model in the presence of a periodically oscillating magnetic field has been analyzed by means of the mean field approximation. The dynamic equation of motion has been constructed with the help of a Glauber type stochastic process and solved for a square lattice. After defining the possible dynamical phases of the system, phase diagrams have been given and the behavior of the hysteresis loops has been investigated in detail. The hysteresis loop for specific order parameter of isotropic Ashkin-Teller model has been defined and characteristics of this loop in different dynamical phases have been given.

A study on predicting network corrections in PPP-RTK processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kan; Khodabandeh, Amir; Teunissen, Peter

2017-10-01

In PPP-RTK processing, the network corrections including the satellite clocks, the satellite phase biases and the ionospheric delays are provided to the users to enable fast single-receiver integer ambiguity resolution. To solve the rank deficiencies in the undifferenced observation equations, the estimable parameters are formed to generate full-rank design matrix. In this contribution, we firstly discuss the interpretation of the estimable parameters without and with a dynamic satellite clock model incorporated in a Kalman filter during the network processing. The functionality of the dynamic satellite clock model is tested in the PPP-RTK processing. Due to the latency generated by the network processing and data transfer, the network corrections are delayed for the real-time user processing. To bridge the latencies, we discuss and compare two prediction approaches making use of the network corrections without and with the dynamic satellite clock model, respectively. The first prediction approach is based on the polynomial fitting of the estimated network parameters, while the second approach directly follows the dynamic model in the Kalman filter of the network processing and utilises the satellite clock drifts estimated in the network processing. Using 1 Hz data from two networks in Australia, the influences of the two prediction approaches on the user positioning results are analysed and compared for latencies ranging from 3 to 10 s. The accuracy of the positioning results decreases with the increasing latency of the network products. For a latency of 3 s, the RMS of the horizontal and the vertical coordinates (with respect to the ground truth) do not show large differences applying both prediction approaches. For a latency of 10 s, the prediction approach making use of the satellite clock model has generated slightly better positioning results with the differences of the RMS at mm-level. Further advantages and disadvantages of both prediction approaches are also discussed in this contribution.

Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago

PubMed Central

Chalmandrier, Loïc; Albouy, Camille; Descombes, Patrice; Sandel, Brody; Faurby, Soren; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2018-01-01

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns. PMID:29657753

Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago.

PubMed

Chalmandrier, Loïc; Albouy, Camille; Descombes, Patrice; Sandel, Brody; Faurby, Soren; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Pellissier, Loïc

2018-03-01

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns.

Crowd computing: using competitive dynamics to develop and refine highly predictive models.

PubMed

Bentzien, Jörg; Muegge, Ingo; Hamner, Ben; Thompson, David C

2013-05-01

A recent application of a crowd computing platform to develop highly predictive in silico models for use in the drug discovery process is described. The platform, Kaggle™, exploits a competitive dynamic that results in model optimization as the competition unfolds. Here, this dynamic is described in detail and compared with more-conventional modeling strategies. The complete and full structure of the underlying dataset is disclosed and some thoughts as to the broader utility of such 'gamification' approaches to the field of modeling are offered. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical evidences of universal trap-like aging dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cammarota, Chiara; Marinari, Enzo

2018-04-01

Trap models have been initially proposed as toy models for dynamical relaxation in extremely simplified rough potential energy landscapes. Their importance has recently grown considerably thanks to the discovery that the trap-like aging mechanism directly controls the out-of-equilibrium relaxation processes of more sophisticated spin models, that are considered as the solvable counterpart of real disordered systems. Further establishing the connection between these spin models, out-of-equilibrium behavior and the trap like aging mechanism could shed new light on the properties, which are still largely mysterious, for the activated out-of-equilibrium dynamics of disordered systems. In this work we discuss numerical evidence based on the computations of the permanence times of an emergent trap-like aging behavior in a variety of very simple disordered models—developed from the trap model paradigm. Our numerical results are backed by analytic derivations and heuristic discussions. Such exploration reveals some of the tricks needed to reveal the trap behavior in spite of the occurrence of secondary processes, of the existence of dynamical correlations and of strong finite system’s size effects.

A Practical Approach to Implementing Real-Time Semantics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luettgen, Gerald; Bhat, Girish; Cleaveland, Rance

1999-01-01

This paper investigates implementations of process algebras which are suitable for modeling concurrent real-time systems. It suggests an approach for efficiently implementing real-time semantics using dynamic priorities. For this purpose a proces algebra with dynamic priority is defined, whose semantics corresponds one-to-one to traditional real-time semantics. The advantage of the dynamic-priority approach is that it drastically reduces the state-space sizes of the systems in question while preserving all properties of their functional and real-time behavior. The utility of the technique is demonstrated by a case study which deals with the formal modeling and verification of the SCSI-2 bus-protocol. The case study is carried out in the Concurrency Workbench of North Carolina, an automated verification tool in which the process algebra with dynamic priority is implemented. It turns out that the state space of the bus-protocol model is about an order of magnitude smaller than the one resulting from real-time semantics. The accuracy of the model is proved by applying model checking for verifying several mandatory properties of the bus protocol.

Large-eddy simulation of laminar-turbulent breakdown at high speeds with dynamic subgrid-scale modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

El-Hady, Nabil M.

1993-01-01

The laminar-turbulent breakdown of a boundary-layer flow along a hollow cylinder at Mach 4.5 is investigated with large-eddy simulation. The subgrid scales are modeled dynamically, where the model coefficients are determined from the local resolved field. The behavior of the dynamic-model coefficients is investigated through both an a priori test with direct numerical simulation data for the same case and a complete large-eddy simulation. Both formulations proposed by Germano et al. and Lilly are used for the determination of unique coefficients for the dynamic model and their results are compared and assessed. The behavior and the energy cascade of the subgrid-scale field structure are investigated at various stages of the transition process. The investigations are able to duplicate a high-speed transition phenomenon observed in experiments and explained only recently by the direct numerical simulations of Pruett and Zang, which is the appearance of 'rope-like' waves. The nonlinear evolution and breakdown of the laminar boundary layer and the structure of the flow field during the transition process were also investigated.

Influence of damage and basal friction on the grounding line dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brondex, Julien; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Durand, Gael

2016-04-01

The understanding of grounding line dynamics is a major issue in the prediction of future sea level rise due to ice released from polar ice sheets into the ocean. This dynamics is complex and significantly affected by several physical processes not always adequately accounted for in current ice flow models. Among those processes, our study focuses on ice damage and evolving basal friction conditions. Softening of the ice due to damaging processes is known to have a strong impact on its rheology by reducing its viscosity and therefore promoting flow acceleration. Damage creates where shear stresses are high enough which is usually the case at shear margins and in the vicinity of pinning points in contact with ice-shelves. Those areas are known to have a buttressing effect on ice shelves contributing to stabilize the grounding line. We aim at evaluating the extent to which this stabilizing effect is hampered by damaging processes. Several friction laws have been proposed by various author to model the contact between grounded-ice and bedrock. Among them, Coulomb-type friction laws enable to account for reduced friction related to low effective pressure (the ice pressure minus the water pressure). Combining such a friction law to a parametrization of the effective pressure accounting for the fact that the area upstream the grounded line is connected to the ocean, is expected to have a significant impact on the grounding line dynamics. Using the finite-element code Elmer/Ice within which both the Coulomb-type friction law, the effective pressure parametrization and the damage model have been implemented, the goal of this study is to investigate the sensitivity of the grounding line dynamics to damage and to an evolving basal friction. The relative importance between those two processes on the grounding line dynamics is addressed as well.

Advances in modeling aerodynamic decelerator dynamics.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitlock, C. H.

1973-01-01

The Viking entry vehicle uses a lines-first type of deployment in which the parachute, packed in a deployment bag, gets ejected rearward from the vehicle by a mortar. As the bag moves rearward, first the lines are unfurled and then the canopy. An analysis of the unfurling process is conducted, giving attention to longitudinal and rotational dynamics. It is shown that analytical modeling of aerodynamic systems provides significant information for a better understanding of the physics of the deployment process.

State machine analysis of sensor data from dynamic processes

DOEpatents

Cook, William R.; Brabson, John M.; Deland, Sharon M.

2003-12-23

A state machine model analyzes sensor data from dynamic processes at a facility to identify the actual processes that were performed at the facility during a period of interest for the purpose of remote facility inspection. An inspector can further input the expected operations into the state machine model and compare the expected, or declared, processes to the actual processes to identify undeclared processes at the facility. The state machine analysis enables the generation of knowledge about the state of the facility at all levels, from location of physical objects to complex operational concepts. Therefore, the state machine method and apparatus may benefit any agency or business with sensored facilities that stores or manipulates expensive, dangerous, or controlled materials or information.

Decision Support Model for Municipal Solid Waste Management at Department of Defense Installations.

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-12-01

Huang uses "Grey Dynamic Programming for Waste Management Planning Under Uncertainty." Fuzzy Dynamic Programming (FDP) is usually designed to...and Composting Programs. Washington: Island Press, 1991. Junio, D.F. Development of an Analytical Hierarchy Process ( AHP ) Model for Siting of

Using stable isotopes and models to explore estuarine linkages at multiple scales

EPA Science Inventory

Estuarine managers need tools to respond to dynamic stressors that occur in three linked environments – coastal ocean, estuaries and watersheds. Models have been the tool of choice for examining these dynamic systems because they simplify processes and integrate over multiple sc...

Into the Modelling of RU Vir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rau, G.; Hron, J.; Paladini, C.; Eriksson, K.; Aringer, B.; Groenewegen, M. A. T.; Mečina, M.

2015-08-01

We present an attempt to model the atmosphere of the carbon-rich Mira star RU Vir, using different techniques including spectroscopy, photometry, and interferometry. A radiative transfer code and hydrostatic model atmospheres were used for a preliminary study. To investigate the dynamic processes happening in RU Vir, dynamic model atmospheres were compared to new MIDI/VLTI observations obtained in April 2014, and SiC opacities were added.

Dynamic genome-scale metabolic modeling of the yeast Pichia pastoris.

PubMed

Saitua, Francisco; Torres, Paulina; Pérez-Correa, José Ricardo; Agosin, Eduardo

2017-02-21

Pichia pastoris shows physiological advantages in producing recombinant proteins, compared to other commonly used cell factories. This yeast is mostly grown in dynamic cultivation systems, where the cell's environment is continuously changing and many variables influence process productivity. In this context, a model capable of explaining and predicting cell behavior for the rational design of bioprocesses is highly desirable. Currently, there are five genome-scale metabolic reconstructions of P. pastoris which have been used to predict extracellular cell behavior in stationary conditions. In this work, we assembled a dynamic genome-scale metabolic model for glucose-limited, aerobic cultivations of Pichia pastoris. Starting from an initial model structure for batch and fed-batch cultures, we performed pre/post regression diagnostics to ensure that model parameters were identifiable, significant and sensitive. Once identified, the non-relevant ones were iteratively fixed until a priori robust modeling structures were found for each type of cultivation. Next, the robustness of these reduced structures was confirmed by calibrating the model with new datasets, where no sensitivity, identifiability or significance problems appeared in their parameters. Afterwards, the model was validated for the prediction of batch and fed-batch dynamics in the studied conditions. Lastly, the model was employed as a case study to analyze the metabolic flux distribution of a fed-batch culture and to unravel genetic and process engineering strategies to improve the production of recombinant Human Serum Albumin (HSA). Simulation of single knock-outs indicated that deviation of carbon towards cysteine and tryptophan formation improves HSA production. The deletion of methylene tetrahydrofolate dehydrogenase could increase the HSA volumetric productivity by 630%. Moreover, given specific bioprocess limitations and strain characteristics, the model suggests that implementation of a decreasing specific growth rate during the feed phase of a fed-batch culture results in a 25% increase of the volumetric productivity of the protein. In this work, we formulated a dynamic genome scale metabolic model of Pichia pastoris that yields realistic metabolic flux distributions throughout dynamic cultivations. The model can be calibrated with experimental data to rationally propose genetic and process engineering strategies to improve the performance of a P. pastoris strain of interest.

Modelling Southern Ocean ecosystems: krill, the food-web, and the impacts of harvesting.

PubMed

Hill, S L; Murphy, E J; Reid, K; Trathan, P N; Constable, A J

2006-11-01

The ecosystem approach to fisheries recognises the interdependence between harvested species and other ecosystem components. It aims to account for the propagation of the effects of harvesting through the food-web. The formulation and evaluation of ecosystem-based management strategies requires reliable models of ecosystem dynamics to predict these effects. The krill-based system in the Southern Ocean was the focus of some of the earliest models exploring such effects. It is also a suitable example for the development of models to support the ecosystem approach to fisheries because it has a relatively simple food-web structure and progress has been made in developing models of the key species and interactions, some of which has been motivated by the need to develop ecosystem-based management. Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, is the main target species for the fishery and the main prey of many top predators. It is therefore critical to capture the processes affecting the dynamics and distribution of krill in ecosystem dynamics models. These processes include environmental influences on recruitment and the spatially variable influence of advection. Models must also capture the interactions between krill and its consumers, which are mediated by the spatial structure of the environment. Various models have explored predator-prey population dynamics with simplistic representations of these interactions, while others have focused on specific details of the interactions. There is now a pressing need to develop plausible and practical models of ecosystem dynamics that link processes occurring at these different scales. Many studies have highlighted uncertainties in our understanding of the system, which indicates future priorities in terms of both data collection and developing methods to evaluate the effects of these uncertainties on model predictions. We propose a modelling approach that focuses on harvested species and their monitored consumers and that evaluates model uncertainty by using alternative structures and functional forms in a Monte Carlo framework.

The Dynamic Brain: From Spiking Neurons to Neural Masses and Cortical Fields

PubMed Central

Deco, Gustavo; Jirsa, Viktor K.; Robinson, Peter A.; Breakspear, Michael; Friston, Karl

2008-01-01

The cortex is a complex system, characterized by its dynamics and architecture, which underlie many functions such as action, perception, learning, language, and cognition. Its structural architecture has been studied for more than a hundred years; however, its dynamics have been addressed much less thoroughly. In this paper, we review and integrate, in a unifying framework, a variety of computational approaches that have been used to characterize the dynamics of the cortex, as evidenced at different levels of measurement. Computational models at different space–time scales help us understand the fundamental mechanisms that underpin neural processes and relate these processes to neuroscience data. Modeling at the single neuron level is necessary because this is the level at which information is exchanged between the computing elements of the brain; the neurons. Mesoscopic models tell us how neural elements interact to yield emergent behavior at the level of microcolumns and cortical columns. Macroscopic models can inform us about whole brain dynamics and interactions between large-scale neural systems such as cortical regions, the thalamus, and brain stem. Each level of description relates uniquely to neuroscience data, from single-unit recordings, through local field potentials to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), electroencephalogram (EEG), and magnetoencephalogram (MEG). Models of the cortex can establish which types of large-scale neuronal networks can perform computations and characterize their emergent properties. Mean-field and related formulations of dynamics also play an essential and complementary role as forward models that can be inverted given empirical data. This makes dynamic models critical in integrating theory and experiments. We argue that elaborating principled and informed models is a prerequisite for grounding empirical neuroscience in a cogent theoretical framework, commensurate with the achievements in the physical sciences. PMID:18769680

Regional forecasting system of marine state and variability of dynamical processes in the easternmost part of the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kordzadze, Avtandil; Demetrashvili, Demuri

2014-05-01

The regional forecasting system for the easternmost part of the Black Sea developed at M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics of I. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University under the EU framework projects ARENA and ECOOP is a part of the Black Sea basin-scale Nowcasting/Forecasting System. A core of the regional forecasting system is a baroclinic regional model of Black Sea dynamics with 1 km spacing based on hydrostatic primitive equations of ocean hydrothermodynamics, which are written in z-coordinates for deviations of thermodynamic values from their standard vertical distributions. To solve the problem the two-cycle method of splitting the model equation system with respect to both physical processes and coordinate planes and lines is used. The regional model of M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics is nested in the basin-scale model of Black Sea dynamics of Marine Hydrophysical Institute (Sevastopol/Ukraine). The regional forecasting system provides 3 days' forecasts of current, temperature and salinity for the easternmost part of the Black Sea, which is limited to the Caucasian and Turkish coastal lines and the western liquid boundary coinciding with the meridian 39.080E. Data needed on liquid and upper boundaries, also the 3-D initial hydrophysical fields for the easternmost regional area are provided in near operative mode from Marine hydrophysical Institute via Internet. These data on the liquid boundary are values of velocity components, temperature and salinity predicted by the basin-scale model of Black Sea dynamics of Marine Hydrophysical Institute and on the sea surface 2-D meteorological boundary fields - wind stress, heat fluxes, evaporation and precipitation rates predicted by the regional atmospheric model ALADIN are used. The analysis of the results of modeling and forecast of dynamic processes developed for 2010-2014 showed that the easternmost water area of the Black Sea is a dynamically very active zone, where continuously there are processes of generation, deformation and disappearance of the cyclonic and anticyclonic vortex formations of different sizes. Acknowledgement. The significant part of the researches was supported by the Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation, Grant No. AR/373/9-120/12.

Mammalian cell culture process for monoclonal antibody production: nonlinear modelling and parameter estimation.

PubMed

Selişteanu, Dan; Șendrescu, Dorin; Georgeanu, Vlad; Roman, Monica

2015-01-01

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are at present one of the fastest growing products of pharmaceutical industry, with widespread applications in biochemistry, biology, and medicine. The operation of mAbs production processes is predominantly based on empirical knowledge, the improvements being achieved by using trial-and-error experiments and precedent practices. The nonlinearity of these processes and the absence of suitable instrumentation require an enhanced modelling effort and modern kinetic parameter estimation strategies. The present work is dedicated to nonlinear dynamic modelling and parameter estimation for a mammalian cell culture process used for mAb production. By using a dynamical model of such kind of processes, an optimization-based technique for estimation of kinetic parameters in the model of mammalian cell culture process is developed. The estimation is achieved as a result of minimizing an error function by a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The proposed estimation approach is analyzed in this work by using a particular model of mammalian cell culture, as a case study, but is generic for this class of bioprocesses. The presented case study shows that the proposed parameter estimation technique provides a more accurate simulation of the experimentally observed process behaviour than reported in previous studies.

Mammalian Cell Culture Process for Monoclonal Antibody Production: Nonlinear Modelling and Parameter Estimation

PubMed Central

Selişteanu, Dan; Șendrescu, Dorin; Georgeanu, Vlad

2015-01-01

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are at present one of the fastest growing products of pharmaceutical industry, with widespread applications in biochemistry, biology, and medicine. The operation of mAbs production processes is predominantly based on empirical knowledge, the improvements being achieved by using trial-and-error experiments and precedent practices. The nonlinearity of these processes and the absence of suitable instrumentation require an enhanced modelling effort and modern kinetic parameter estimation strategies. The present work is dedicated to nonlinear dynamic modelling and parameter estimation for a mammalian cell culture process used for mAb production. By using a dynamical model of such kind of processes, an optimization-based technique for estimation of kinetic parameters in the model of mammalian cell culture process is developed. The estimation is achieved as a result of minimizing an error function by a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The proposed estimation approach is analyzed in this work by using a particular model of mammalian cell culture, as a case study, but is generic for this class of bioprocesses. The presented case study shows that the proposed parameter estimation technique provides a more accurate simulation of the experimentally observed process behaviour than reported in previous studies. PMID:25685797

Physics at a 100 TeV pp Collider: Standard Model Processes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mangano, M. L.; Zanderighi, G.; Aguilar Saavedra, J. A.

This report summarises the properties of Standard Model processes at the 100 TeV pp collider. We document the production rates and typical distributions for a number of benchmark Standard Model processes, and discuss new dynamical phenomena arising at the highest energies available at this collider. We discuss the intrinsic physics interest in the measurement of these Standard Model processes, as well as their role as backgrounds for New Physics searches.

Part 3 Specialized aspects of GIS and spatial analysis . Garage band science and dynamic spatial models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Box, Paul W.

GIS and spatial analysis is suited mainly for static pictures of the landscape, but many of the processes that need exploring are dynamic in nature. Dynamic processes can be complex when put in a spatial context; our ability to study such processes will probably come with advances in understanding complex systems in general. Cellular automata and agent-based models are two prime candidates for exploring complex spatial systems, but are difficult to implement. Innovative tools that help build complex simulations will create larger user communities, who will probably find novel solutions for understanding complexity. A significant source for such innovations is likely to be from the collective efforts of hobbyists and part-time programmers, who have been dubbed ``garage-band scientists'' in the popular press.

Tracing Crop Nitrogen Dynamics on the Field-Scale by Combining Multisensoral EO Data with an Integrated Process Model- A Validation Experiment for Cereals in Southern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hank, Tobias B.; Bach, Heike; Danner, Martin; Hodrius, Martina; Mauser, Wolfram

2016-08-01

Nitrogen, being the basic element for the construction of plant proteins and pigments, is one of the most important production factors for agricultural cultivation. High resolution and near real-time information on nitrogen status in the soil thus is of highest interest for economically and ecologically optimized fertilizer planning and application. Unfortunately, nitrogen storage in the soil column cannot be directly observed with Earth Observation (EO) instruments. Advanced EO supported process modelling approaches therefore must be applied that allow tracing the spatiotemporal dynamics of nitrogen transformation, translocation and transport in the soil and in the canopy. Before these models can be applied as decision support tools for smart farming, they must be carefully parameterized and validated. This study applies an advanced land surface process model (PROMET) to selected winter cereal fields in Southern Germany and correlates the model outputs to destructively sampled nitrogen data from the growing season of 2015 (17 sampling dates, 8 sample locations). The spatial parametrization of the process model thereby is supported by assimilating eight satellite images (5 times Landsat 8 OLI and 3 times RapidEye). It was found that the model is capable of realistically tracing the temporal and spatial dynamics of aboveground nitrogen uptake and allocation (R2 = 0.84, RMSE 31.3 kg ha-1).

Higher Order Chemistry Models in the CFD Simulation of Laser-Ablated Carbon Plumes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greendyke, R. B.; Creel, J. R.; Payne, B. T.; Scott, C. D.

2005-01-01

Production of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNT) has taken place for a number of years and by a variety of methods such as laser ablation, chemical vapor deposition, and arc-jet ablation. Yet, little is actually understood about the exact chemical kinetics and processes that occur in SWNT formation. In recent time, NASA Johnson Space Center has devoted a considerable effort to the experimental evaluation of the laser ablation production process for SWNT originally developed at Rice University. To fully understand the nature of the laser ablation process it is necessary to understand the development of the carbon plume dynamics within the laser ablation oven. The present work is a continuation of previous studies into the efforts to model plume dynamics using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The ultimate goal of the work is to improve understanding of the laser ablation process, and through that improved understanding, refine the laser ablation production of SWNT.

Traffic dynamics of carnival processions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polichronidis, Petros; Wegerle, Dominik; Dieper, Alexander; Schreckenberg, Michael

2018-03-01

The traffic dynamics of processions are described in this study. GPS data from participating groups in the Cologne Rose Monday processions 2014–2017 are used to analyze the kinematic characteristics. The preparation of the measured data requires an adjustment by a specially adapted algorithm for the map matching method. A higher average velocity is observed for the last participant, the Carnival Prince, than for the leading participant of the parade. Based on the results of the data analysis, for the first time a model can be established for defilading parade groups as a modified Nagel-Schreckenberg model. This model can reproduce the observed characteristics in simulations. They can be explained partly by the constantly moving vehicle driving ahead of the parade leaving the pathway and partly due to a spatial contraction of the parade during the procession.

From quantum mechanics to finance: Microfoundations for jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in diffusion price processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henkel, Christof

2017-03-01

We present an agent behavior based microscopic model that induces jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in the price process of a traded asset. We transfer dynamics of thermally activated jumps of an unexcited/excited two state system discussed in the context of quantum mechanics to agent socio-economic behavior and provide microfoundations. After we link the endogenous agent behavior to price dynamics we establish the circumstances under which the dynamics converge to an Itô-diffusion price processes in the large market limit.

Key Process Uncertainties in Soil Carbon Dynamics: Comparing Multiple Model Structures and Observational Meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, B. N.; Moore, J.; Averill, C.; Abramoff, R. Z.; Bradford, M.; Classen, A. T.; Hartman, M. D.; Kivlin, S. N.; Luo, Y.; Mayes, M. A.; Morrison, E. W.; Riley, W. J.; Salazar, A.; Schimel, J.; Sridhar, B.; Tang, J.; Wang, G.; Wieder, W. R.

2016-12-01

Soil carbon (C) dynamics are crucial to understanding and predicting C cycle responses to global change and soil C modeling is a key tool for understanding these dynamics. While first order model structures have historically dominated this area, a recent proliferation of alternative model structures representing different assumptions about microbial activity and mineral protection is providing new opportunities to explore process uncertainties related to soil C dynamics. We conducted idealized simulations of soil C responses to warming and litter addition using models from five research groups that incorporated different sets of assumptions about processes governing soil C decomposition and stabilization. We conducted a meta-analysis of published warming and C addition experiments for comparison with simulations. Assumptions related to mineral protection and microbial dynamics drove strong differences among models. In response to C additions, some models predicted long-term C accumulation while others predicted transient increases that were counteracted by accelerating decomposition. In experimental manipulations, doubling litter addition did not change soil C stocks in studies spanning as long as two decades. This result agreed with simulations from models with strong microbial growth responses and limited mineral sorption capacity. In observations, warming initially drove soil C loss via increased CO2 production, but in some studies soil C rebounded and increased over decadal time scales. In contrast, all models predicted sustained C losses under warming. The disagreement with experimental results could be explained by physiological or community-level acclimation, or by warming-related changes in plant growth. In addition to the role of microbial activity, assumptions related to mineral sorption and protected C played a key role in driving long-term model responses. In general, simulations were similar in their initial responses to perturbations but diverged over decadal time scales. This suggests that more long-term soil experiments may be necessary to resolve important process uncertainties related to soil C storage. We also suggest future experiments examine how microbial activity responds to warming under a range of soil clay contents and in concert with changes in litter inputs.

Dynamics of Metabolism and Decision Making During Alcohol Consumption: Modeling and Analysis.

PubMed

Giraldo, Luis Felipe; Passino, Kevin M; Clapp, John D; Ruderman, Danielle

2017-11-01

Heavy alcohol consumption is considered an important public health issue in the United States as over 88 000 people die every year from alcohol-related causes. Research is being conducted to understand the etiology of alcohol consumption and to develop strategies to decrease high-risk consumption and its consequences, but there are still important gaps in determining the main factors that influence the consumption behaviors throughout the drinking event. There is a need for methodologies that allow us not only to identify such factors but also to have a comprehensive understanding of how they are connected and how they affect the dynamical evolution of a drinking event. In this paper, we use previous empirical findings from laboratory and field studies to build a mathematical model of the blood alcohol concentration dynamics in individuals that are in drinking events. We characterize these dynamics as the result of the interaction between a decision-making system and the metabolic process for alcohol. We provide a model of the metabolic process for arbitrary alcohol intake patterns and a characterization of the mechanisms that drive the decision-making process of a drinker during the drinking event. We use computational simulations and Lyapunov stability theory to analyze the effects of the parameters of the model on the blood alcohol concentration dynamics that are characterized. Also, we propose a methodology to inform the model using data collected in situ and to make estimations that provide additional information to the analysis. We show how this model allows us to analyze and predict previously observed behaviors, to design new approaches for the collection of data that improves the construction of the model, and help with the design of interventions.

Activated aging dynamics and effective trap model description in the random energy model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baity-Jesi, M.; Biroli, G.; Cammarota, C.

2018-01-01

We study the out-of-equilibrium aging dynamics of the random energy model (REM) ruled by a single spin-flip Metropolis dynamics. We focus on the dynamical evolution taking place on time-scales diverging with the system size. Our aim is to show to what extent the activated dynamics displayed by the REM can be described in terms of an effective trap model. We identify two time regimes: the first one corresponds to the process of escaping from a basin in the energy landscape and to the subsequent exploration of high energy configurations, whereas the second one corresponds to the evolution from a deep basin to the other. By combining numerical simulations with analytical arguments we show why the trap model description does not hold in the former but becomes exact in the second.

The ‘hit’ phenomenon: a mathematical model of human dynamics interactions as a stochastic process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishii, Akira; Arakaki, Hisashi; Matsuda, Naoya; Umemura, Sanae; Urushidani, Tamiko; Yamagata, Naoya; Yoshida, Narihiko

2012-06-01

A mathematical model for the ‘hit’ phenomenon in entertainment within a society is presented as a stochastic process of human dynamics interactions. The model uses only the advertisement budget time distribution as an input, and word-of-mouth (WOM), represented by posts on social network systems, is used as data to make a comparison with the calculated results. The unit of time is days. The WOM distribution in time is found to be very close to the revenue distribution in time. Calculations for the Japanese motion picture market based on the mathematical model agree well with the actual revenue distribution in time.

Capillary Rise: Validity of the Dynamic Contact Angle Models.

PubMed

Wu, Pingkeng; Nikolov, Alex D; Wasan, Darsh T

2017-08-15

The classical Lucas-Washburn-Rideal (LWR) equation, using the equilibrium contact angle, predicts a faster capillary rise process than experiments in many cases. The major contributor to the faster prediction is believed to be the velocity dependent dynamic contact angle. In this work, we investigated the dynamic contact angle models for their ability to correct the dynamic contact angle effect in the capillary rise process. We conducted capillary rise experiments of various wetting liquids in borosilicate glass capillaries and compared the model predictions with our experimental data. The results show that the LWR equations modified by the molecular kinetic theory and hydrodynamic model provide good predictions on the capillary rise of all the testing liquids with fitting parameters, while the one modified by Joos' empirical equation works for specific liquids, such as silicone oils. The LWR equation modified by molecular self-layering model predicts well the capillary rise of carbon tetrachloride, octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane, and n-alkanes with the molecular diameter or measured solvation force data. The molecular self-layering model modified LWR equation also has good predictions on the capillary rise of silicone oils covering a wide range of bulk viscosities with the same key parameter W(0), which results from the molecular self-layering. The advantage of the molecular self-layering model over the other models reveals the importance of the layered molecularly thin wetting film ahead of the main meniscus in the energy dissipation associated with dynamic contact angle. The analysis of the capillary rise of silicone oils with a wide range of bulk viscosities provides new insights into the capillary dynamics of polymer melts.

The hydrological effects of varying vegetation characteristics in a temperate water-limited basin: Development of the dynamic Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (dBCP) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qiang; McVicar, Tim R.; Yang, Zhifeng; Donohue, Randall J.; Liang, Liqiao; Yang, Yuting

2016-12-01

Vegetation patterns are affected by water availability, which, in turn, influences the hydrological partitioning and regional water balance, especially in water-limited regions. Considering the important role of vegetation in partitioning the catchment water yield, the recently developed Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (or BCP) model incorporated Porporato's model of key ecohydrological processes into Choudury's form of the Budyko hydroclimatic framework. Here we extend the steady state BCP model by incorporating dynamic ecohydrological processes into it and combining it with a typical bucket soil water balance model (resulting in the dynamic BCP, or dBCP, model). The dBCP model is used here to assess the impacts of vegetation on the water balance in a temperate water-limited basin (i.e., the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in north China), where growing season phenology is primarily constrained by low temperatures. The results show that: (i) the incorporation of dynamic growing season (fs) and dynamic effective rooting depth (Ze) conditions into the dBCP model improves results when compared to the original BCP model; (ii) dBCP model's results vary depending on time-step used (i.e., we tested mean-annual to monthly), which reflected the influence of catchment variables, e.g., catchment area, catchment-average air temperature, dryness index and Ze; and (iii) actual evapotranspiration (E) is more sensitive to changes in mean storm depth (α), followed by P, Ze, and Ep. When taking into account observed variability of each of four ecohydrological variables, changes in Ze cause the greatest variability in E, generally followed by variability in P and α, and then Ep. The dBCP results indicate that incorporating dynamic ecohydrological processes into the Budyko framework can improve the estimation of inter-annual variability of the regional water balance. This can help to understand the water requirement and to establish suitable water management strategies to adapt to climate change in the YRB. The dBCP model has modest forcing data requirements and can be applied to other basins globally.

Development of a biosphere hydrological model considering vegetation dynamics and its evaluation at basin scale under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiaoling; Ishidaira, Hiroshi

2012-01-01

SummaryThe biosphere and hydrosphere are intrinsically coupled. The scientific question is if there is a substantial change in one component such as vegetation cover, how will the other components such as transpiration and runoff generation respond, especially under climate change conditions? Stand-alone hydrological models have a detailed description of hydrological processes but do not sufficiently parameterize vegetation as a dynamic component. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are able to simulate transient structural changes in major vegetation types but do not simulate runoff generation reliably. Therefore, both hydrological models and DGVMs have their limitations as well as advantages for addressing this question. In this study a biosphere hydrological model (LPJH) is developed by coupling a prominent DGVM (Lund-Postdam-Jena model referred to as LPJ) with a stand-alone hydrological model (HYMOD), with the objective of analyzing the role of vegetation in the hydrological processes at basin scale and evaluating the impact of vegetation change on the hydrological processes under climate change. The application and validation of the LPJH model to four basins representing a variety of climate and vegetation conditions shows that the performance of LPJH is much better than that of the original LPJ and is similar to that of stand-alone hydrological models for monthly and daily runoff simulation at the basin scale. It is argued that the LPJH model gives more reasonable hydrological simulation since it considers both the spatial variability of soil moisture and vegetation dynamics, which make the runoff generation mechanism more reliable. As an example, it is shown that changing atmospheric CO 2 content alone would result in runoff increases in humid basins and decreases in arid basins. Theses changes are mainly attributable to changes in transpiration driven by vegetation dynamics, which are not simulated in stand-alone hydrological models. Therefore LPJH potentially provides a powerful tool for simulating vegetation response to climate changes in the biosphere hydrological cycle.

Virtual Embryo: Cell-Agent Based Modeling of Developmental Processes and Toxicities (CSS BOSC)

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial regulation of cellular dynamics is fundamental to morphological development. As such, chemical disruption of spatial dynamics is a determinant of developmental toxicity. Incorporating spatial dynamics into AOPs for developmental toxicity is desired but constrained by the ...

Modeling socio-cultural processes in network-centric environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Eunice E.; Santos, Eugene, Jr.; Korah, John; George, Riya; Gu, Qi; Kim, Keumjoo; Li, Deqing; Russell, Jacob; Subramanian, Suresh

2012-05-01

The major focus in the field of modeling & simulation for network centric environments has been on the physical layer while making simplifications for the human-in-the-loop. However, the human element has a big impact on the capabilities of network centric systems. Taking into account the socio-behavioral aspects of processes such as team building, group decision-making, etc. are critical to realistically modeling and analyzing system performance. Modeling socio-cultural processes is a challenge because of the complexity of the networks, dynamism in the physical and social layers, feedback loops and uncertainty in the modeling data. We propose an overarching framework to represent, model and analyze various socio-cultural processes within network centric environments. The key innovation in our methodology is to simultaneously model the dynamism in both the physical and social layers while providing functional mappings between them. We represent socio-cultural information such as friendships, professional relationships and temperament by leveraging the Culturally Infused Social Network (CISN) framework. The notion of intent is used to relate the underlying socio-cultural factors to observed behavior. We will model intent using Bayesian Knowledge Bases (BKBs), a probabilistic reasoning network, which can represent incomplete and uncertain socio-cultural information. We will leverage previous work on a network performance modeling framework called Network-Centric Operations Performance and Prediction (N-COPP) to incorporate dynamism in various aspects of the physical layer such as node mobility, transmission parameters, etc. We validate our framework by simulating a suitable scenario, incorporating relevant factors and providing analyses of the results.

Efficient implementation of constant pH molecular dynamics on modern graphics processors.

PubMed

Arthur, Evan J; Brooks, Charles L

2016-09-15

The treatment of pH sensitive ionization states for titratable residues in proteins is often omitted from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. While static charge models can answer many questions regarding protein conformational equilibrium and protein-ligand interactions, pH-sensitive phenomena such as acid-activated chaperones and amyloidogenic protein aggregation are inaccessible to such models. Constant pH molecular dynamics (CPHMD) coupled with the Generalized Born with a Simple sWitching function (GBSW) implicit solvent model provide an accurate framework for simulating pH sensitive processes in biological systems. Although this combination has demonstrated success in predicting pKa values of protein structures, and in exploring dynamics of ionizable side-chains, its speed has been an impediment to routine application. The recent availability of low-cost graphics processing unit (GPU) chipsets with thousands of processing cores, together with the implementation of the accurate GBSW implicit solvent model on those chipsets (Arthur and Brooks, J. Comput. Chem. 2016, 37, 927), provide an opportunity to improve the speed of CPHMD and ionization modeling greatly. Here, we present a first implementation of GPU-enabled CPHMD within the CHARMM-OpenMM simulation package interface. Depending on the system size and nonbonded force cutoff parameters, we find speed increases of between one and three orders of magnitude. Additionally, the algorithm scales better with system size than the CPU-based algorithm, thus allowing for larger systems to be modeled in a cost effective manner. We anticipate that the improved performance of this methodology will open the door for broad-spread application of CPHMD in its modeling pH-mediated biological processes. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

2014-09-01

Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

Forecasting financial asset processes: stochastic dynamics via learning neural networks.

PubMed

Giebel, S; Rainer, M

2010-01-01

Models for financial asset dynamics usually take into account their inherent unpredictable nature by including a suitable stochastic component into their process. Unknown (forward) values of financial assets (at a given time in the future) are usually estimated as expectations of the stochastic asset under a suitable risk-neutral measure. This estimation requires the stochastic model to be calibrated to some history of sufficient length in the past. Apart from inherent limitations, due to the stochastic nature of the process, the predictive power is also limited by the simplifying assumptions of the common calibration methods, such as maximum likelihood estimation and regression methods, performed often without weights on the historic time series, or with static weights only. Here we propose a novel method of "intelligent" calibration, using learning neural networks in order to dynamically adapt the parameters of the stochastic model. Hence we have a stochastic process with time dependent parameters, the dynamics of the parameters being themselves learned continuously by a neural network. The back propagation in training the previous weights is limited to a certain memory length (in the examples we consider 10 previous business days), which is similar to the maximal time lag of autoregressive processes. We demonstrate the learning efficiency of the new algorithm by tracking the next-day forecasts for the EURTRY and EUR-HUF exchange rates each.

Conceptual Design and Dynamics Testing and Modeling of a Mars Tumbleweed Rover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calhoun Philip C.; Harris, Steven B.; Raiszadeh, Behzad; Zaleski, Kristina D.

2005-01-01

The NASA Langley Research Center has been developing a novel concept for a Mars planetary rover called the Mars Tumbleweed. This concept utilizes the wind to propel the rover along the Mars surface, bringing it the potential to cover vast distances not possible with current Mars rover technology. This vehicle, in its deployed configuration, must be large and lightweight to provide the ratio of drag force to rolling resistance necessary to initiate motion from rest on the Mars surface. One Tumbleweed design concept that satisfies these considerations is called the Eggbeater-Dandelion. This paper describes the basic design considerations and a proposed dynamics model of the concept for use in simulation studies. It includes a summary of rolling/bouncing dynamics tests that used videogrammetry to better understand, characterize, and validate the dynamics model assumptions, especially the effective rolling resistance in bouncing/rolling dynamic conditions. The dynamics test used cameras to capture the motion of 32 targets affixed to a test article s outer structure. Proper placement of the cameras and alignment of their respective fields of view provided adequate image resolution of multiple targets along the trajectory as the test article proceeded down the ramp. Image processing of the frames from multiple cameras was used to determine the target positions. Position data from a set of these test runs was compared with results of a three dimensional, flexible dynamics model. Model input parameters were adjusted to match the test data for runs conducted. This process presented herein provided the means to characterize the dynamics and validate the simulation of the Eggbeater-Dandelion concept. The simulation model was used to demonstrate full scale Tumbleweed motion from a stationary condition on a flat-sloped terrain using representative Mars environment parameters.

Dynamic modeling of Tampa Bay urban development using parallel computing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xian, G.; Crane, M.; Steinwand, D.

2005-01-01

Urban land use and land cover has changed significantly in the environs of Tampa Bay, Florida, over the past 50 years. Extensive urbanization has created substantial change to the region's landscape and ecosystems. This paper uses a dynamic urban-growth model, SLEUTH, which applies six geospatial data themes (slope, land use, exclusion, urban extent, transportation, hillside), to study the process of urbanization and associated land use and land cover change in the Tampa Bay area. To reduce processing time and complete the modeling process within an acceptable period, the model is recoded and ported to a Beowulf cluster. The parallel-processing computer system accomplishes the massive amount of computation the modeling simulation requires. SLEUTH calibration process for the Tampa Bay urban growth simulation spends only 10 h CPU time. The model predicts future land use/cover change trends for Tampa Bay from 1992 to 2025. Urban extent is predicted to double in the Tampa Bay watershed between 1992 and 2025. Results show an upward trend of urbanization at the expense of a decline of 58% and 80% in agriculture and forested lands, respectively.

Quality-by-Design (QbD): An integrated process analytical technology (PAT) approach for a dynamic pharmaceutical co-precipitation process characterization and process design space development.

PubMed

Wu, Huiquan; White, Maury; Khan, Mansoor A

2011-02-28

The aim of this work was to develop an integrated process analytical technology (PAT) approach for a dynamic pharmaceutical co-precipitation process characterization and design space development. A dynamic co-precipitation process by gradually introducing water to the ternary system of naproxen-Eudragit L100-alcohol was monitored at real-time in situ via Lasentec FBRM and PVM. 3D map of count-time-chord length revealed three distinguishable process stages: incubation, transition, and steady-state. The effects of high risk process variables (slurry temperature, stirring rate, and water addition rate) on both derived co-precipitation process rates and final chord-length-distribution were evaluated systematically using a 3(3) full factorial design. Critical process variables were identified via ANOVA for both transition and steady state. General linear models (GLM) were then used for parameter estimation for each critical variable. Clear trends about effects of each critical variable during transition and steady state were found by GLM and were interpreted using fundamental process principles and Nyvlt's transfer model. Neural network models were able to link process variables with response variables at transition and steady state with R(2) of 0.88-0.98. PVM images evidenced nucleation and crystal growth. Contour plots illustrated design space via critical process variables' ranges. It demonstrated the utility of integrated PAT approach for QbD development. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A global "imaging'' view on systems approaches in immunology.

PubMed

Ludewig, Burkhard; Stein, Jens V; Sharpe, James; Cervantes-Barragan, Luisa; Thiel, Volker; Bocharov, Gennady

2012-12-01

The immune system exhibits an enormous complexity. High throughput methods such as the "-omic'' technologies generate vast amounts of data that facilitate dissection of immunological processes at ever finer resolution. Using high-resolution data-driven systems analysis, causal relationships between complex molecular processes and particular immunological phenotypes can be constructed. However, processes in tissues, organs, and the organism itself (so-called higher level processes) also control and regulate the molecular (lower level) processes. Reverse systems engineering approaches, which focus on the examination of the structure, dynamics and control of the immune system, can help to understand the construction principles of the immune system. Such integrative mechanistic models can properly describe, explain, and predict the behavior of the immune system in health and disease by combining both higher and lower level processes. Moving from molecular and cellular levels to a multiscale systems understanding requires the development of methodologies that integrate data from different biological levels into multiscale mechanistic models. In particular, 3D imaging techniques and 4D modeling of the spatiotemporal dynamics of immune processes within lymphoid tissues are central for such integrative approaches. Both dynamic and global organ imaging technologies will be instrumental in facilitating comprehensive multiscale systems immunology analyses as discussed in this review. © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Learning Data Set Influence on Identification Accuracy of Gas Turbine Neural Network Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsov, A. V.; Makaryants, G. M.

2018-01-01

There are many gas turbine engine identification researches via dynamic neural network models. It should minimize errors between model and real object during identification process. Questions about training data set processing of neural networks are usually missed. This article presents a study about influence of data set type on gas turbine neural network model accuracy. The identification object is thermodynamic model of micro gas turbine engine. The thermodynamic model input signal is the fuel consumption and output signal is the engine rotor rotation frequency. Four types input signals was used for creating training and testing data sets of dynamic neural network models - step, fast, slow and mixed. Four dynamic neural networks were created based on these types of training data sets. Each neural network was tested via four types test data sets. In the result 16 transition processes from four neural networks and four test data sets from analogous solving results of thermodynamic model were compared. The errors comparison was made between all neural network errors in each test data set. In the comparison result it was shown error value ranges of each test data set. It is shown that error values ranges is small therefore the influence of data set types on identification accuracy is low.

Propulsive Reaction Control System Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brugarolas, Paul; Phan, Linh H.; Serricchio, Frederick; San Martin, Alejandro M.

2011-01-01

This software models a propulsive reaction control system (RCS) for guidance, navigation, and control simulation purposes. The model includes the drive electronics, the electromechanical valve dynamics, the combustion dynamics, and thrust. This innovation follows the Mars Science Laboratory entry reaction control system design, and has been created to meet the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) entry, descent, and landing simulation needs. It has been built to be plug-and-play on multiple MSL testbeds [analysis, Monte Carlo, flight software development, hardware-in-the-loop, and ATLO (assembly, test and launch operations) testbeds]. This RCS model is a C language program. It contains two main functions: the RCS electronics model function that models the RCS FPGA (field-programmable-gate-array) processing and commanding of the RCS valve, and the RCS dynamic model function that models the valve and combustion dynamics. In addition, this software provides support functions to initialize the model states, set parameters, access model telemetry, and access calculated thruster forces.

Modelling of Batch Lactic Acid Fermentation in
the Presence of Anionic Clay

PubMed Central

Jinescu, Cosmin; Aruş, Vasilica Alisa; Nistor, Ileana Denisa

2014-01-01

Summary Batch fermentation of milk inoculated with lactic acid bacteria was conducted in the presence of hydrotalcite-type anionic clay under static and ultrasonic conditions. An experimental study of the effect of fermentation temperature (t=38–43 °C), clay/milk ratio (R=1–7.5 g/L) and ultrasonic field (ν=0 and 35 kHz) on process dynamics was performed. A mathematical model was selected to describe the fermentation process kinetics and its parameters were estimated based on experimental data. A good agreement between the experimental and simulated results was achieved. Consequently, the model can be employed to predict the dynamics of batch lactic acid fermentation with values of process variables in the studied ranges. A statistical analysis of the data based on a 23 factorial experiment was performed in order to express experimental and model-regressed process responses depending on t, R and ν factors. PMID:27904318

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models.

PubMed

Pierson, Jennifer C; Beissinger, Steven R; Bragg, Jason G; Coates, David J; Oostermeijer, J Gerard B; Sunnucks, Paul; Schumaker, Nathan H; Trotter, Meredith V; Young, Andrew G

2015-06-01

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco-evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco-evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco-evo PVA using individual-based models with individual-level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype-phenotype mapping to model emergent population-level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco-evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Stochastic dynamics of coupled active particles in an overdamped limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ann, Minjung; Lee, Kong-Ju-Bock; Park, Pyeong Jun

2015-10-01

We introduce a model for Brownian dynamics of coupled active particles in an overdamped limit. Our system consists of several identical active particles and one passive particle. Each active particle is elastically coupled to the passive particle and there is no direct coupling among the active particles. We investigate the dynamics of the system with respect to the number of active particles, viscous friction, and coupling between the active and passive particles. For this purpose, we consider an intracellular transport process as an application of our model and perform a Brownian dynamics simulation using realistic parameters for processive molecular motors such as kinesin-1. We determine an adequate energy conversion function for molecular motors and study the dynamics of intracellular transport by multiple motors. The results show that the average velocity of the coupled system is not affected by the number of active motors and that the stall force increases linearly as the number of motors increases. Our results are consistent with well-known experimental observations. We also examine the effects of coupling between the motors and the cargo, as well as of the spatial distribution of the motors around the cargo. Our model might provide a physical explanation of the cooperation among active motors in the cellular transport processes.

Dynamic control of magnetic nanowires by light-induced domain-wall kickoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heintze, Eric; El Hallak, Fadi; Clauß, Conrad; Rettori, Angelo; Pini, Maria Gloria; Totti, Federico; Dressel, Martin; Bogani, Lapo

2013-03-01

Controlling the speed at which systems evolve is a challenge shared by all disciplines, and otherwise unrelated areas use common theoretical frameworks towards this goal. A particularly widespread model is Glauber dynamics, which describes the time evolution of the Ising model and can be applied to any binary system. Here we show, using molecular nanowires under irradiation, that Glauber dynamics can be controlled by a novel domain-wall kickoff mechanism. In contrast to known processes, the kickoff has unambiguous fingerprints, slowing down the spin-flip attempt rate by several orders of magnitude, and following a scaling law. The required irradiance is very low, a substantial improvement over present methods of magneto-optical switching. These results provide a new way to control and study stochastic dynamic processes. Being general for Glauber dynamics, they can be extended to different kinds of magnetic nanowires and to numerous fields, ranging from social evolution to neural networks and chemical reactivity.

Modeling Elevation and Aspect Controls on Emerging Ecohydrologic Processes and Ecosystem Patterns Using the Component-based Landlab Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nudurupati, S. S.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Adams, J. M.; Hobley, D. E. J.; Gasparini, N. M.; Tucker, G. E.; Hutton, E. W. H.

2014-12-01

Topography plays a commanding role on the organization of ecohydrologic processes and resulting vegetation patterns. In southwestern United States, climate conditions lead to terrain aspect- and elevation-controlled ecosystems, with mesic north-facing and xeric south-facing vegetation types; and changes in biodiversity as a function of elevation from shrublands in low desert elevations, to mixed grass/shrublands in mid elevations, and forests at high elevations and ridge tops. These observed patterns have been attributed to differences in topography-mediated local soil moisture availability, micro-climatology, and life history processes of plants that control chances of plant establishment and survival. While ecohydrologic models represent local vegetation dynamics in sufficient detail up to sub-hourly time scales, plant life history and competition for space and resources has not been adequately represented in models. In this study we develop an ecohydrologic cellular automata model within the Landlab component-based modeling framework. This model couples local vegetation dynamics (biomass production, death) and plant establishment and competition processes for resources and space. This model is used to study the vegetation organization in a semiarid New Mexico catchment where elevation and hillslope aspect play a defining role on plant types. Processes that lead to observed plant types across the landscape are examined by initializing the domain with randomly assigned plant types and systematically changing model parameters that couple plant response with soil moisture dynamics. Climate perturbation experiments are conducted to examine the plant response in space and time. Understanding the inherently transient ecohydrologic systems is critical to improve predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems.

Systematic study of 16O-induced fusion with the improved quantum molecular dynamics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ning; Zhao, Kai; Li, Zhuxia

2014-11-01

The heavy-ion fusion reactions with 16O bombarding on 62Ni,65Cu,74Ge,148Nd,180Hf,186W,208Pb,238U are systematically investigated with the improved quantum molecular dynamics model. The fusion cross sections at energies near and above the Coulomb barriers can be reasonably well reproduced by using this semiclassical microscopic transport model with the parameter sets SkP* and IQ3a. The dynamical nucleus-nucleus potentials and the influence of Fermi constraint on the fusion process are also studied simultaneously. In addition to the mean field, the Fermi constraint also plays a key role for the reliable description of the fusion process and for improving the stability of fragments in heavy-ion collisions.

Evaluation of Student Models on Current Socio-Scientific Topics Based on System Dynamics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nuhoglu, Hasret

2014-01-01

This study aims to 1) enable primary school students to develop models that will help them understand and analyze a system, through a learning process based on system dynamics approach, 2) examine and evaluate students' models related to socio-scientific issues using certain criteria. The research method used is a case study. The study sample…

Oceanic island biogeography through the lens of the general dynamic model: assessment and prospect.

PubMed

Borregaard, Michael K; Amorim, Isabel R; Borges, Paulo A V; Cabral, Juliano S; Fernández-Palacios, José M; Field, Richard; Heaney, Lawrence R; Kreft, Holger; Matthews, Thomas J; Olesen, Jens M; Price, Jonathan; Rigal, Francois; Steinbauer, Manuel J; Triantis, Konstantinos A; Valente, Luis; Weigelt, Patrick; Whittaker, Robert J

2017-05-01

The general dynamic model of oceanic island biogeography (GDM) has added a new dimension to theoretical island biogeography in recognizing that geological processes are key drivers of the evolutionary processes of diversification and extinction within remote islands. It provides a dynamic and essentially non-equilibrium framework generating novel predictions for emergent diversity properties of oceanic islands and archipelagos. Its publication in 2008 coincided with, and spurred on, renewed attention to the dynamics of remote islands. We review progress, both in testing the GDM's predictions and in developing and enhancing ecological-evolutionary understanding of oceanic island systems through the lens of the GDM. In particular, we focus on four main themes: (i) macroecological tests using a space-for-time rationale; (ii) extensions of theory to islands following different patterns of ontogeny; (iii) the implications of GDM dynamics for lineage diversification and trait evolution; and (iv) the potential for downscaling GDM dynamics to local-scale ecological patterns and processes within islands. We also consider the implications of the GDM for understanding patterns of non-native species diversity. We demonstrate the vitality of the field of island biogeography by identifying a range of potentially productive lines for future research. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Nonlinear evolution dynamics of holographic superconductor model with scalar self-interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ran; Zi, Tieguang; Zhang, Hongbao

2018-04-01

We investigate the holographic superconductor model that is described by the Einstein-Maxwell theory with the self-interaction term λ |Ψ |4 of complex scalar field in asymptotic anti-de Sitter (AdS) spacetime. Below critical temperature Tc, the planar Reissner-Nordström-AdS black hole is unstable due to the near-horizon scalar condensation instability. We study the full nonlinear development of this instability by numerically solving the gravitational dynamics in the asymptotic AdS spacetime, and observe a dynamical process from the perturbed Reissner-Nordström-AdS black hole to a hairy black hole when the initial black hole temperature T

Universal Session-Level Change Processes in an Early Session of Psychotherapy: Path Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kolden, Gregory G.; Chisholm-Stockard, Sarah M.; Strauman, Timothy J.; Tierney, Sandy C.; Mullen, Elizabeth A.; Schneider, Kristin L.

2006-01-01

The authors used structural equation modeling to investigate universal change processes identified in the generic model of psychotherapy (GMP). Three path models of increasing complexity were examined in Study 1 in dynamic therapy. The best fitting model from Study one was replicated in Study two for participants receiving either cognitive or…

Collisional and dynamical processes in moon and planet formation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, C. R.; Davis, D. R.; Weidenschilling, S. J.; Hartmann, W. K.; Spaute, D.

1987-01-01

Research on a variety of dynamical processes relevant to the formation of planets, satellites and ring systems is discussed. The main focus is on studies of accretionary formation of early protoplanets using a numerical model, structures and evolution of ring systems and individual bodies within planetary rings, and theories of lunar origin.

Dynamics of Cooperation in a Task Completion Social Dilemma

PubMed Central

Passino, Kevin M.

2017-01-01

We study the situation where the members of a community have the choice to participate in the completion of a common task. The process of completing the task involves only costs and no benefits to the individuals that participate in this process. However, completing the task results in changes that significantly benefit the community and that exceed the participation efforts. A task completion social dilemma arises when the short-term participation costs dissipate any interest in the community members to contribute to the task completion process and therefore to obtain the benefits that result from completing the task. In this work, we model the task completion problem using a dynamical system that characterizes the participation dynamics in the community and the task completion process. We show how this model naturally allows for the incorporation of several mechanisms that facilitate the emergence of cooperation and that have been studied in previous research on social dilemmas, including communication across a network, and indirect reciprocity through relative reputation. We provide mathematical analyses and computer simulations to study the qualitative properties of the participation dynamics in the community for different scenarios. PMID:28125721

Integrative modelling for One Health: pattern, process and participation

PubMed Central

Redding, D. W.; Wood, J. L. N.

2017-01-01

This paper argues for an integrative modelling approach for understanding zoonoses disease dynamics, combining process, pattern and participatory models. Each type of modelling provides important insights, but all are limited. Combining these in a ‘3P’ approach offers the opportunity for a productive conversation between modelling efforts, contributing to a ‘One Health’ agenda. The aim is not to come up with a composite model, but seek synergies between perspectives, encouraging cross-disciplinary interactions. We illustrate our argument with cases from Africa, and in particular from our work on Ebola virus and Lassa fever virus. Combining process-based compartmental models with macroecological data offers a spatial perspective on potential disease impacts. However, without insights from the ground, the ‘black box’ of transmission dynamics, so crucial to model assumptions, may not be fully understood. We show how participatory modelling and ethnographic research of Ebola and Lassa fever can reveal social roles, unsafe practices, mobility and movement and temporal changes in livelihoods. Together with longer-term dynamics of change in societies and ecologies, all can be important in explaining disease transmission, and provide important complementary insights to other modelling efforts. An integrative modelling approach therefore can offer help to improve disease control efforts and public health responses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being’. PMID:28584172

Toward a Model of Human Information Processing for Decision-Making and Skill Acquisition in Laparoscopic Colorectal Surgery.

PubMed

White, Eoin J; McMahon, Muireann; Walsh, Michael T; Coffey, J Calvin; O Sullivan, Leonard

To create a human information-processing model for laparoscopic surgery based on already established literature and primary research to enhance laparoscopic surgical education in this context. We reviewed the literature for information-processing models most relevant to laparoscopic surgery. Our review highlighted the necessity for a model that accounts for dynamic environments, perception, allocation of attention resources between the actions of both hands of an operator, and skill acquisition and retention. The results of the literature review were augmented through intraoperative observations of 7 colorectal surgical procedures, supported by laparoscopic video analysis of 12 colorectal procedures. The Wickens human information-processing model was selected as the most relevant theoretical model to which we make adaptions for this specific application. We expanded the perception subsystem of the model to involve all aspects of perception during laparoscopic surgery. We extended the decision-making system to include dynamic decision-making to account for case/patient-specific and surgeon-specific deviations. The response subsystem now includes dual-task performance and nontechnical skills, such as intraoperative communication. The memory subsystem is expanded to include skill acquisition and retention. Surgical decision-making during laparoscopic surgery is the result of a highly complex series of processes influenced not only by the operator's knowledge, but also patient anatomy and interaction with the surgical team. Newer developments in simulation-based education must focus on the theoretically supported elements and events that underpin skill acquisition and affect the cognitive abilities of novice surgeons. The proposed human information-processing model builds on established literature regarding information processing, accounting for a dynamic environment of laparoscopic surgery. This revised model may be used as a foundation for a model describing robotic surgery. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The drift diffusion model as the choice rule in reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Pedersen, Mads Lund; Frank, Michael J; Biele, Guido

2017-08-01

Current reinforcement-learning models often assume simplified decision processes that do not fully reflect the dynamic complexities of choice processes. Conversely, sequential-sampling models of decision making account for both choice accuracy and response time, but assume that decisions are based on static decision values. To combine these two computational models of decision making and learning, we implemented reinforcement-learning models in which the drift diffusion model describes the choice process, thereby capturing both within- and across-trial dynamics. To exemplify the utility of this approach, we quantitatively fit data from a common reinforcement-learning paradigm using hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation, and compared model variants to determine whether they could capture the effects of stimulant medication in adult patients with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The model with the best relative fit provided a good description of the learning process, choices, and response times. A parameter recovery experiment showed that the hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach enabled accurate estimation of the model parameters. The model approach described here, using simultaneous estimation of reinforcement-learning and drift diffusion model parameters, shows promise for revealing new insights into the cognitive and neural mechanisms of learning and decision making, as well as the alteration of such processes in clinical groups.

The drift diffusion model as the choice rule in reinforcement learning

PubMed Central

Frank, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Current reinforcement-learning models often assume simplified decision processes that do not fully reflect the dynamic complexities of choice processes. Conversely, sequential-sampling models of decision making account for both choice accuracy and response time, but assume that decisions are based on static decision values. To combine these two computational models of decision making and learning, we implemented reinforcement-learning models in which the drift diffusion model describes the choice process, thereby capturing both within- and across-trial dynamics. To exemplify the utility of this approach, we quantitatively fit data from a common reinforcement-learning paradigm using hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation, and compared model variants to determine whether they could capture the effects of stimulant medication in adult patients with attention-deficit hyper-activity disorder (ADHD). The model with the best relative fit provided a good description of the learning process, choices, and response times. A parameter recovery experiment showed that the hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach enabled accurate estimation of the model parameters. The model approach described here, using simultaneous estimation of reinforcement-learning and drift diffusion model parameters, shows promise for revealing new insights into the cognitive and neural mechanisms of learning and decision making, as well as the alteration of such processes in clinical groups. PMID:27966103

Mathematical and experimental modelling of the dynamic bubble processes occurring in a two-phase cyclonic separation device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrage, Dean Stewart

1998-11-01

This dissertation presents a combined mathematical and experimental analysis of the fluid dynamics of a gas- liquid, dispersed-phase cyclonic separation device. The global objective of this research is to develop a simulation model of separation process in order to predict the void fraction field within a cyclonic separation device. The separation process is approximated by analyzing the dynamic motion of many single-bubbles, moving under the influence of the far-field, interacting with physical boundaries and other bubbles. The dynamic motion of the bubble is described by treating the bubble as a point-mass and writing an inertial force balance, equating the force applied to the bubble-point-location to the inertial acceleration of the bubble mass (also applied to the point-location). The forces which are applied to the bubble are determined by an integration of the surface pressure over the bubble. The surface pressure is coupled to the intrinsic motion of the bubble, and is very difficult to obtain exactly. However, under moderate Reynolds number, the wake trailing a bubble is small and the near-field flow field can be approximated as an inviscid flow field. Unconventional potential flow techniques are employed to solve for the surface pressure; the hydrodyamic forces are described as a hydrodynamic mass tensor operating on the bubble acceleration vector. The inviscid flow model is augmented with adjunct forces which describe: drag forces, dynamic lift, far-field pressure forces. The dynamic equations of motion are solved both analytically and numerically for the bubble trajectory in specific flow field examples. A validation of these equations is performed by comparing to an experimentally-derived trajectory of a single- bubble, which is released into a cylindrical Couette flow field (inner cylinder rotating) at varying positions. Finally, a simulation of a cyclonic separation device is performed by extending the single-bubble dynamic model to a multi-bubble ensemble. A simplified model is developed to predict the effects of bubble-interaction. The simulation qualitatively depicts the separation physics encountered in an actual cyclonic separation device, supporting the original tenet that the separation process can be approximated by the collective motions of single- bubbles.

Models of determining deformations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gladilin, V. N.

2016-12-01

In recent years, a lot of functions designed to determine deformation values that occur mostly as a result of settlement of structures and industrial equipment. Some authors suggest such advanced mathematical functions approximating deformations as general methods for the determination of deformations. The article describes models of deformations as physical processes. When comparing static, cinematic and dynamic models, it was found that the dynamic model reflects the deformation of structures and industrial equipment most reliably.

Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for ecosystem carbon cycle studies

Treesearch

Y. He; Q. Zhuang; A.D. McGuire; Y. Liu; M. Chen

2013-01-01

Model-data fusion is a process in which field observations are used to constrain model parameters. How observations are used to constrain parameters has a direct impact on the carbon cycle dynamics simulated by ecosystem models. In this study, we present an evaluation of several options for the use of observations inmodeling regional carbon dynamics and explore the...

Pre-eruptive magmatic processes re-timed using a non-isothermal approach to magma chamber dynamics.

PubMed

Petrone, Chiara Maria; Bugatti, Giuseppe; Braschi, Eleonora; Tommasini, Simone

2016-10-05

Constraining the timescales of pre-eruptive magmatic processes in active volcanic systems is paramount to understand magma chamber dynamics and the triggers for volcanic eruptions. Temporal information of magmatic processes is locked within the chemical zoning profiles of crystals but can be accessed by means of elemental diffusion chronometry. Mineral compositional zoning testifies to the occurrence of substantial temperature differences within magma chambers, which often bias the estimated timescales in the case of multi-stage zoned minerals. Here we propose a new Non-Isothermal Diffusion Incremental Step model to take into account the non-isothermal nature of pre-eruptive processes, deconstructing the main core-rim diffusion profiles of multi-zoned crystals into different isothermal steps. The Non-Isothermal Diffusion Incremental Step model represents a significant improvement in the reconstruction of crystal lifetime histories. Unravelling stepwise timescales at contrasting temperatures provides a novel approach to constraining pre-eruptive magmatic processes and greatly increases our understanding of magma chamber dynamics.

Pre-eruptive magmatic processes re-timed using a non-isothermal approach to magma chamber dynamics

PubMed Central

Petrone, Chiara Maria; Bugatti, Giuseppe; Braschi, Eleonora; Tommasini, Simone

2016-01-01

Constraining the timescales of pre-eruptive magmatic processes in active volcanic systems is paramount to understand magma chamber dynamics and the triggers for volcanic eruptions. Temporal information of magmatic processes is locked within the chemical zoning profiles of crystals but can be accessed by means of elemental diffusion chronometry. Mineral compositional zoning testifies to the occurrence of substantial temperature differences within magma chambers, which often bias the estimated timescales in the case of multi-stage zoned minerals. Here we propose a new Non-Isothermal Diffusion Incremental Step model to take into account the non-isothermal nature of pre-eruptive processes, deconstructing the main core-rim diffusion profiles of multi-zoned crystals into different isothermal steps. The Non-Isothermal Diffusion Incremental Step model represents a significant improvement in the reconstruction of crystal lifetime histories. Unravelling stepwise timescales at contrasting temperatures provides a novel approach to constraining pre-eruptive magmatic processes and greatly increases our understanding of magma chamber dynamics. PMID:27703141

Dynamic Simulation of a Helium Liquefier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maekawa, R.; Ooba, K.; Nobutoki, M.; Mito, T.

2004-06-01

Dynamic behavior of a helium liquefier has been studied in detail with a Cryogenic Process REal-time SimulaTor (C-PREST) at the National Institute for Fusion Science (NIFS). The C-PREST is being developed to integrate large-scale helium cryogenic plant design, operation and maintenance for optimum process establishment. As a first step of simulations of cooldown to 4.5 K with the helium liquefier model is conducted, which provides a plant-process validation platform. The helium liquefier consists of seven heat exchangers, a liquid-nitrogen (LN2) precooler, two expansion turbines and a liquid-helium (LHe) reservoir. Process simulations are fulfilled with sequence programs, which were implemented with C-PREST based on an existing liquefier operation. The interactions of a JT valve, a JT-bypass valve and a reservoir-return valve have been dynamically simulated. The paper discusses various aspects of refrigeration process simulation, including its difficulties such as a balance between complexity of the adopted models and CPU time.

Dynamic biogas upgrading based on the Sabatier process: thermodynamic and dynamic process simulation.

PubMed

Jürgensen, Lars; Ehimen, Ehiaze Augustine; Born, Jens; Holm-Nielsen, Jens Bo

2015-02-01

This study aimed to investigate the feasibility of substitute natural gas (SNG) generation using biogas from anaerobic digestion and hydrogen from renewable energy systems. Using thermodynamic equilibrium analysis, kinetic reactor modeling and transient simulation, an integrated approach for the operation of a biogas-based Sabatier process was put forward, which was then verified using a lab scale heterogenous methanation reactor. The process simulation using a kinetic reactor model demonstrated the feasibility of the production of SNG at gas grid standards using a single reactor setup. The Wobbe index, CO2 content and calorific value were found to be controllable by the H2/CO2 ratio fed the methanation reactor. An optimal H2/CO2 ratio of 3.45-3.7 was seen to result in a product gas with high calorific value and Wobbe index. The dynamic reactor simulation verified that the process start-up was feasible within several minutes to facilitate surplus electricity use from renewable energy systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bio-Inspired Neural Model for Learning Dynamic Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duong, Tuan; Duong, Vu; Suri, Ronald

2009-01-01

A neural-network mathematical model that, relative to prior such models, places greater emphasis on some of the temporal aspects of real neural physical processes, has been proposed as a basis for massively parallel, distributed algorithms that learn dynamic models of possibly complex external processes by means of learning rules that are local in space and time. The algorithms could be made to perform such functions as recognition and prediction of words in speech and of objects depicted in video images. The approach embodied in this model is said to be "hardware-friendly" in the following sense: The algorithms would be amenable to execution by special-purpose computers implemented as very-large-scale integrated (VLSI) circuits that would operate at relatively high speeds and low power demands.

The stability analysis of the nutrition restricted dynamic model of the microalgae biomass growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratianingsih, R.; Fitriani, Nacong, N.; Resnawati, Mardlijah, Widodo, B.

2018-03-01

The biomass production is very essential in microalgae farming such that its growth rate is very important to be determined. This paper proposes the dynamics model of it that restricted by its nutrition. The model is developed by considers some related processes that are photosynthesis, respiration, nutrition absorption, stabilization, lipid synthesis and CO2 mobilization. The stability of the dynamical system that represents the processes is analyzed using the Jacobian matrix of the linearized system in the neighborhood of its critical point. There is a lipid formation threshold needed to require its existence. In such case, the absorption rate of respiration process has to be inversely proportional to the absorption rate of CO2 due to photosynthesis process. The Pontryagin minimal principal also shows that there are some requirements needed to have a stable critical point, such as the rate of CO2 released rate, due to the stabilization process that is restricted by 50%, and the threshold of its shifted critical point. In case of the rate of CO2 released rate due to the photosynthesis process is restricted in such interval; the stability of the model at the critical point could not be satisfied anymore. The simulation shows that the external nutrition plays a role in glucose formation such that sufficient for the biomass growth and the lipid production.

Disaggregation and Refinement of System Dynamics Models via Agent-based Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nutaro, James J; Ozmen, Ozgur; Schryver, Jack C

System dynamics models are usually used to investigate aggregate level behavior, but these models can be decomposed into agents that have more realistic individual behaviors. Here we develop a simple model of the STEM workforce to illuminate the impacts that arise from the disaggregation and refinement of system dynamics models via agent-based modeling. Particularly, alteration of Poisson assumptions, adding heterogeneity to decision-making processes of agents, and discrete-time formulation are investigated and their impacts are illustrated. The goal is to demonstrate both the promise and danger of agent-based modeling in the context of a relatively simple model and to delineate themore » importance of modeling decisions that are often overlooked.« less

Psychotherapy Is Chaotic—(Not Only) in a Computational World

PubMed Central

Schiepek, Günter K.; Viol, Kathrin; Aichhorn, Wolfgang; Hütt, Marc-Thorsten; Sungler, Katharina; Pincus, David; Schöller, Helmut J.

2017-01-01

Objective: The aim of this article is to outline the role of chaotic dynamics in psychotherapy. Besides some empirical findings of chaos at different time scales, the focus is on theoretical modeling of change processes explaining and simulating chaotic dynamics. It will be illustrated how some common factors of psychotherapeutic change and psychological hypotheses on motivation, emotion regulation, and information processing of the client's functioning can be integrated into a comprehensive nonlinear model of human change processes. Methods: The model combines 5 variables (intensity of emotions, problem intensity, motivation to change, insight and new perspectives, therapeutic success) and 4 parameters into a set of 5 coupled nonlinear difference equations. The results of these simulations are presented as time series, as phase space embedding of these time series (i.e., attractors), and as bifurcation diagrams. Results: The model creates chaotic dynamics, phase transition-like phenomena, bi- or multi-stability, and sensibility of the dynamic patterns on parameter drift. These features are predicted by chaos theory and by Synergetics and correspond to empirical findings. The spectrum of these behaviors illustrates the complexity of psychotherapeutic processes. Conclusion: The model contributes to the development of an integrative conceptualization of psychotherapy. It is consistent with the state of scientific knowledge of common factors, as well as other psychological topics, such as: motivation, emotion regulation, and cognitive processing. The role of chaos theory is underpinned, not only in the world of computer simulations, but also in practice. In practice, chaos demands technologies capable of real-time monitoring and reporting on the nonlinear features of the ongoing process (e.g., its stability or instability). Based on this monitoring, a client-centered, continuous, and cooperative process of feedback and control becomes possible. By contrast, restricted predictability and spontaneous changes challenge the usefulness of prescriptive treatment manuals or other predefined programs of psychotherapy. PMID:28484401

Psychotherapy Is Chaotic-(Not Only) in a Computational World.

PubMed

Schiepek, Günter K; Viol, Kathrin; Aichhorn, Wolfgang; Hütt, Marc-Thorsten; Sungler, Katharina; Pincus, David; Schöller, Helmut J

2017-01-01

Objective: The aim of this article is to outline the role of chaotic dynamics in psychotherapy. Besides some empirical findings of chaos at different time scales, the focus is on theoretical modeling of change processes explaining and simulating chaotic dynamics. It will be illustrated how some common factors of psychotherapeutic change and psychological hypotheses on motivation, emotion regulation, and information processing of the client's functioning can be integrated into a comprehensive nonlinear model of human change processes. Methods: The model combines 5 variables (intensity of emotions, problem intensity, motivation to change, insight and new perspectives, therapeutic success) and 4 parameters into a set of 5 coupled nonlinear difference equations. The results of these simulations are presented as time series, as phase space embedding of these time series (i.e., attractors), and as bifurcation diagrams. Results: The model creates chaotic dynamics, phase transition-like phenomena, bi- or multi-stability, and sensibility of the dynamic patterns on parameter drift. These features are predicted by chaos theory and by Synergetics and correspond to empirical findings. The spectrum of these behaviors illustrates the complexity of psychotherapeutic processes. Conclusion: The model contributes to the development of an integrative conceptualization of psychotherapy. It is consistent with the state of scientific knowledge of common factors, as well as other psychological topics, such as: motivation, emotion regulation, and cognitive processing. The role of chaos theory is underpinned, not only in the world of computer simulations, but also in practice. In practice, chaos demands technologies capable of real-time monitoring and reporting on the nonlinear features of the ongoing process (e.g., its stability or instability). Based on this monitoring, a client-centered, continuous, and cooperative process of feedback and control becomes possible. By contrast, restricted predictability and spontaneous changes challenge the usefulness of prescriptive treatment manuals or other predefined programs of psychotherapy.

A coarse-grained model of microtubule self-assembly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regmi, Chola; Cheng, Shengfeng

Microtubules play critical roles in cell structures and functions. They also serve as a model system to stimulate the next-generation smart, dynamic materials. A deep understanding of their self-assembly process and biomechanical properties will not only help elucidate how microtubules perform biological functions, but also lead to exciting insight on how microtubule dynamics can be altered or even controlled for specific purposes such as suppressing the division of cancer cells. Combining all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and the essential dynamics coarse-graining method, we construct a coarse-grained (CG) model of the tubulin protein, which is the building block of microtubules. In the CG model a tubulin dimer is represented as an elastic network of CG sites, the locations of which are determined by examining the protein dynamics of the tubulin and identifying the essential dynamic domains. Atomistic MD modeling is employed to directly compute the tubulin bond energies in the surface lattice of a microtubule, which are used to parameterize the interactions between CG building blocks. The CG model is then used to study the self-assembly pathways, kinetics, dynamics, and nanomechanics of microtubules.

Employment of CB models for non-linear dynamic analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, M. R. M.; Deloo, P.; Fournier-Sicre, A.

1990-01-01

The non-linear dynamic analysis of large structures is always very time, effort and CPU consuming. Whenever possible the reduction of the size of the mathematical model involved is of main importance to speed up the computational procedures. Such reduction can be performed for the part of the structure which perform linearly. Most of the time, the classical Guyan reduction process is used. For non-linear dynamic process where the non-linearity is present at interfaces between different structures, Craig-Bampton models can provide a very rich information, and allow easy selection of the relevant modes with respect to the phenomenon driving the non-linearity. The paper presents the employment of Craig-Bampton models combined with Newmark direct integration for solving non-linear friction problems appearing at the interface between the Hubble Space Telescope and its solar arrays during in-orbit maneuvers. Theory, implementation in the FEM code ASKA, and practical results are shown.

Chasing boundaries and cascade effects in a coupled barrier - marshes - lagoon system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzo Trueba, J.; Mariotti, G.

2015-12-01

Low-lying coasts are often characterized by barriers islands, shore-parallel stretches of sand separated from the mainland by marshes and lagoons. We built an exploratory numerical model to examine the morphological feedbacks within an idealized barrier - marshes -lagoon system and predict its evolution under projected rates of sea level rise and sediment supply to the backbarrier environment. Our starting point is a recently developed morphodynamic model, which couples shoreface evolution and overwash processes in a dynamic framework. As such, the model is able to capture dynamics not reproduced by morphokinematic models, which advect geometries without specific concern to processes. These dynamics include periodic barrier retreat due to time lags in the shoreface response to barrier overwash, height drowning due to insufficient overwash fluxes as sea level rises, and width drowning, which occurs when the shoreface response rate is insufficient to maintain the barrier geometry during overwash-driven landward migration. We extended the model by coupling the barrier model with a model for the evolution of the marsh platform and the boundary between the marsh and the adjacent lagoon. The coupled model explicitly describes marsh edge processes and accounts for the modification of the wave regime associated with lagoon width (fetch). Model results demonstrate that changes in factors that are not typically associated with the dynamics of coastal barriers, such as the lagoon width and the rate of export/import of sediments from and to the lagoon, can lead to previously unidentified complex responses of the coupled system. In particular, a wider lagoon in the backbarrier, and/or a reduction in the supply of muddy sediments to the backbarrier, can increase barrier retreat rates and even trigger barrier drowning. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating backbarrier dynamics in models that aim at predicting the response of barrier systems.

Application of numerical optimization techniques to control system design for nonlinear dynamic models of aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lan, C. Edward; Ge, Fuying

1989-01-01

Control system design for general nonlinear flight dynamic models is considered through numerical simulation. The design is accomplished through a numerical optimizer coupled with analysis of flight dynamic equations. The general flight dynamic equations are numerically integrated and dynamic characteristics are then identified from the dynamic response. The design variables are determined iteratively by the optimizer to optimize a prescribed objective function which is related to desired dynamic characteristics. Generality of the method allows nonlinear effects to aerodynamics and dynamic coupling to be considered in the design process. To demonstrate the method, nonlinear simulation models for an F-5A and an F-16 configurations are used to design dampers to satisfy specifications on flying qualities and control systems to prevent departure. The results indicate that the present method is simple in formulation and effective in satisfying the design objectives.

A nonlinear dynamical system for combustion instability in a pulse model combustor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takagi, Kazushi; Gotoda, Hiroshi

2016-11-01

We theoretically and numerically study the bifurcation phenomena of nonlinear dynamical system describing combustion instability in a pulse model combustor on the basis of dynamical system theory and complex network theory. The dynamical behavior of pressure fluctuations undergoes a significant transition from steady-state to deterministic chaos via the period-doubling cascade process known as Feigenbaum scenario with decreasing the characteristic flow time. Recurrence plots and recurrence networks analysis we adopted in this study can quantify the significant changes in dynamic behavior of combustion instability that cannot be captured in the bifurcation diagram.

Neurobiologically Inspired Approaches to Nonlinear Process Control and Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-12-31

incorporates second messenger reaction kinetics and calcium dynamics to represent the nonlinear dynamics and the crucial role of neuromodulation in local...reflex). The dynamic neuromodulation as a mechanism for the nonlinear attenuation is the novel result of this study. Ear- lier simulations have shown

Dynamics of bubble collapse under vessel confinement in 2D hydrodynamic experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shpuntova, Galina; Austin, Joanna

2013-11-01

One trauma mechanism in biomedical treatment techniques based on the application of cumulative pressure pulses generated either externally (as in shock-wave lithotripsy) or internally (by laser-induced plasma) is the collapse of voids. However, prediction of void-collapse driven tissue damage is a challenging problem, involving complex and dynamic thermomechanical processes in a heterogeneous material. We carry out a series of model experiments to investigate the hydrodynamic processes of voids collapsing under dynamic loading in configurations designed to model cavitation with vessel confinement. The baseline case of void collapse near a single interface is also examined. Thin sheets of tissue-surrogate polymer materials with varying acoustic impedance are used to create one or two parallel material interfaces near the void. Shadowgraph photography and two-color, single-frame particle image velocimetry quantify bubble collapse dynamics including jetting, interface dynamics and penetration, and the response of the surrounding material. Research supported by NSF Award #0954769, ``CAREER: Dynamics and damage of void collapse in biological materials under stress wave loading.''

Optimal Estimation with Two Process Models and No Measurements

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

models will be lost if either of the models includes deterministic modeling errors. 12 5. References and Notes 1. Brown RG, Hwang PYC. Introduction to...independent process models when no measurements are present. The observer follows a derivation similar to that of the discrete time Kalman filter. A simulation...discrete time Kalman filter. A simulation example is provided in which a process model based on the dynamics of a ballistic projectile is blended with an

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zitney, S.E.

This presentation will examine process systems engineering R&D needs for application to advanced fossil energy (FE) systems and highlight ongoing research activities at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) under the auspices of a recently launched Collaboratory for Process & Dynamic Systems Research. The three current technology focus areas include: 1) High-fidelity systems with NETL's award-winning Advanced Process Engineering Co-Simulator (APECS) technology for integrating process simulation with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and virtual engineering concepts, 2) Dynamic systems with R&D on plant-wide IGCC dynamic simulation, control, and real-time training applications, and 3) Systems optimization including large-scale process optimization, stochastic simulationmore » for risk/uncertainty analysis, and cost estimation. Continued R&D aimed at these and other key process systems engineering models, methods, and tools will accelerate the development of advanced gasification-based FE systems and produce increasingly valuable outcomes for DOE and the Nation.« less

Integration and segregation in auditory streaming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almonte, Felix; Jirsa, Viktor K.; Large, Edward W.; Tuller, Betty

2005-12-01

We aim to capture the perceptual dynamics of auditory streaming using a neurally inspired model of auditory processing. Traditional approaches view streaming as a competition of streams, realized within a tonotopically organized neural network. In contrast, we view streaming to be a dynamic integration process which resides at locations other than the sensory specific neural subsystems. This process finds its realization in the synchronization of neural ensembles or in the existence of informational convergence zones. Our approach uses two interacting dynamical systems, in which the first system responds to incoming acoustic stimuli and transforms them into a spatiotemporal neural field dynamics. The second system is a classification system coupled to the neural field and evolves to a stationary state. These states are identified with a single perceptual stream or multiple streams. Several results in human perception are modelled including temporal coherence and fission boundaries [L.P.A.S. van Noorden, Temporal coherence in the perception of tone sequences, Ph.D. Thesis, Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands, 1975], and crossing of motions [A.S. Bregman, Auditory Scene Analysis: The Perceptual Organization of Sound, MIT Press, 1990]. Our model predicts phenomena such as the existence of two streams with the same pitch, which cannot be explained by the traditional stream competition models. An experimental study is performed to provide proof of existence of this phenomenon. The model elucidates possible mechanisms that may underlie perceptual phenomena.

Application of Non-Kolmogorovian Probability and Quantum Adaptive Dynamics to Unconscious Inference in Visual Perception Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Accardi, Luigi; Khrennikov, Andrei; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu; Yamato, Ichiro

2016-07-01

Recently a novel quantum information formalism — quantum adaptive dynamics — was developed and applied to modelling of information processing by bio-systems including cognitive phenomena: from molecular biology (glucose-lactose metabolism for E.coli bacteria, epigenetic evolution) to cognition, psychology. From the foundational point of view quantum adaptive dynamics describes mutual adapting of the information states of two interacting systems (physical or biological) as well as adapting of co-observations performed by the systems. In this paper we apply this formalism to model unconscious inference: the process of transition from sensation to perception. The paper combines theory and experiment. Statistical data collected in an experimental study on recognition of a particular ambiguous figure, the Schröder stairs, support the viability of the quantum(-like) model of unconscious inference including modelling of biases generated by rotation-contexts. From the probabilistic point of view, we study (for concrete experimental data) the problem of contextuality of probability, its dependence on experimental contexts. Mathematically contextuality leads to non-Komogorovness: probability distributions generated by various rotation contexts cannot be treated in the Kolmogorovian framework. At the same time they can be embedded in a “big Kolmogorov space” as conditional probabilities. However, such a Kolmogorov space has too complex structure and the operational quantum formalism in the form of quantum adaptive dynamics simplifies the modelling essentially.

A Dynamic Connectome Supports the Emergence of Stable Computational Function of Neural Circuits through Reward-Based Learning.

PubMed

Kappel, David; Legenstein, Robert; Habenschuss, Stefan; Hsieh, Michael; Maass, Wolfgang

2018-01-01

Synaptic connections between neurons in the brain are dynamic because of continuously ongoing spine dynamics, axonal sprouting, and other processes. In fact, it was recently shown that the spontaneous synapse-autonomous component of spine dynamics is at least as large as the component that depends on the history of pre- and postsynaptic neural activity. These data are inconsistent with common models for network plasticity and raise the following questions: how can neural circuits maintain a stable computational function in spite of these continuously ongoing processes, and what could be functional uses of these ongoing processes? Here, we present a rigorous theoretical framework for these seemingly stochastic spine dynamics and rewiring processes in the context of reward-based learning tasks. We show that spontaneous synapse-autonomous processes, in combination with reward signals such as dopamine, can explain the capability of networks of neurons in the brain to configure themselves for specific computational tasks, and to compensate automatically for later changes in the network or task. Furthermore, we show theoretically and through computer simulations that stable computational performance is compatible with continuously ongoing synapse-autonomous changes. After reaching good computational performance it causes primarily a slow drift of network architecture and dynamics in task-irrelevant dimensions, as observed for neural activity in motor cortex and other areas. On the more abstract level of reinforcement learning the resulting model gives rise to an understanding of reward-driven network plasticity as continuous sampling of network configurations.

A Dynamic Connectome Supports the Emergence of Stable Computational Function of Neural Circuits through Reward-Based Learning

PubMed Central

Habenschuss, Stefan; Hsieh, Michael

2018-01-01

Synaptic connections between neurons in the brain are dynamic because of continuously ongoing spine dynamics, axonal sprouting, and other processes. In fact, it was recently shown that the spontaneous synapse-autonomous component of spine dynamics is at least as large as the component that depends on the history of pre- and postsynaptic neural activity. These data are inconsistent with common models for network plasticity and raise the following questions: how can neural circuits maintain a stable computational function in spite of these continuously ongoing processes, and what could be functional uses of these ongoing processes? Here, we present a rigorous theoretical framework for these seemingly stochastic spine dynamics and rewiring processes in the context of reward-based learning tasks. We show that spontaneous synapse-autonomous processes, in combination with reward signals such as dopamine, can explain the capability of networks of neurons in the brain to configure themselves for specific computational tasks, and to compensate automatically for later changes in the network or task. Furthermore, we show theoretically and through computer simulations that stable computational performance is compatible with continuously ongoing synapse-autonomous changes. After reaching good computational performance it causes primarily a slow drift of network architecture and dynamics in task-irrelevant dimensions, as observed for neural activity in motor cortex and other areas. On the more abstract level of reinforcement learning the resulting model gives rise to an understanding of reward-driven network plasticity as continuous sampling of network configurations. PMID:29696150

Dynamic Biological Functioning Important for Simulating and Stabilizing Ocean Biogeochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchanan, P. J.; Matear, R. J.; Chase, Z.; Phipps, S. J.; Bindoff, N. L.

2018-04-01

The biogeochemistry of the ocean exerts a strong influence on the climate by modulating atmospheric greenhouse gases. In turn, ocean biogeochemistry depends on numerous physical and biological processes that change over space and time. Accurately simulating these processes is fundamental for accurately simulating the ocean's role within the climate. However, our simulation of these processes is often simplistic, despite a growing understanding of underlying biological dynamics. Here we explore how new parameterizations of biological processes affect simulated biogeochemical properties in a global ocean model. We combine 6 different physical realizations with 6 different biogeochemical parameterizations (36 unique ocean states). The biogeochemical parameterizations, all previously published, aim to more accurately represent the response of ocean biology to changing physical conditions. We make three major findings. First, oxygen, carbon, alkalinity, and phosphate fields are more sensitive to changes in the ocean's physical state. Only nitrate is more sensitive to changes in biological processes, and we suggest that assessment protocols for ocean biogeochemical models formally include the marine nitrogen cycle to assess their performance. Second, we show that dynamic variations in the production, remineralization, and stoichiometry of organic matter in response to changing environmental conditions benefit the simulation of ocean biogeochemistry. Third, dynamic biological functioning reduces the sensitivity of biogeochemical properties to physical change. Carbon and nitrogen inventories were 50% and 20% less sensitive to physical changes, respectively, in simulations that incorporated dynamic biological functioning. These results highlight the importance of a dynamic biology for ocean properties and climate.

Dynamic modeling and analyses of simultaneous saccharification and fermentation process to produce bio-ethanol from rice straw.

PubMed

Ko, Jordon; Su, Wen-Jun; Chien, I-Lung; Chang, Der-Ming; Chou, Sheng-Hsin; Zhan, Rui-Yu

2010-02-01

The rice straw, an agricultural waste from Asians' main provision, was collected as feedstock to convert cellulose into ethanol through the enzymatic hydrolysis and followed by the fermentation process. When the two process steps are performed sequentially, it is referred to as separate hydrolysis and fermentation (SHF). The steps can also be performed simultaneously, i.e., simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF). In this research, the kinetic model parameters of the cellulose saccharification process step using the rice straw as feedstock is obtained from real experimental data of cellulase hydrolysis. Furthermore, this model can be combined with a fermentation model at high glucose and ethanol concentrations to form a SSF model. The fermentation model is based on cybernetic approach from a paper in the literature with an extension of including both the glucose and ethanol inhibition terms to approach more to the actual plants. Dynamic effects of the operating variables in the enzymatic hydrolysis and the fermentation models will be analyzed. The operation of the SSF process will be compared to the SHF process. It is shown that the SSF process is better in reducing the processing time when the product (ethanol) concentration is high. The means to improve the productivity of the overall SSF process, by properly using aeration during the batch operation will also be discussed.

An evaluation of Dynamic TOPMODEL in natural and human-impacted catchments for low flow simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coxon, Gemma; Freer, Jim; Lane, Rosanna; Musuuza, Jude; Woods, Ross; Wagener, Thorsten; Howden, Nicholas

2017-04-01

Models of catchment hydrology are essential tools for drought risk management, often providing input to water resource system models, aiding our understanding of low flow processes within catchments and providing low flow simulations and predictions. However, simulating low flows is challenging as hydrological systems often demonstrate threshold effects in connectivity, non-linear groundwater contributions and a greater influence of anthropogenic modifications such as surface and ground water abstractions during low flow periods. These processes are typically not well represented in commonly used hydrological models due to knowledge, data and model limitations. Hence, a better understanding of the natural and human processes that occur during low flows, how these are represented within models and how they could be improved is required to be able to provide robust and reliable predictions of future drought events. The aim of this study is to assess the skill of dynamic TOPMODEL during low flows for both natural and human-impacted catchments. Dynamic TOPMODEL was chosen for this study as it is able to explicitly characterise connectivity and fluxes across landscapes using hydrological response units (HRU's) while still maintaining flexibility in how spatially complex the model is configured and what specific functions (i.e. abstractions or groundwater stores) are represented. We apply dynamic TOPMODEL across the River Thames catchment using daily time series of observed rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data for the period 1999 - 2014, covering two major droughts in the Thames catchment. Significantly, to assess the impact of abstractions on low flows across the Thames catchment, we incorporate functions to characterise over 3,500 monthly surface water and ground water abstractions covering the simulation period into dynamic TOPMODEL. We evaluate dynamic TOPMODEL at over 90 gauging stations across the Thames catchment against multiple signatures of catchment low-flow behaviour in a 'limits of acceptability' GLUE framework. We investigate differences in model performance between signatures, different low flow periods and for natural and human impacted catchments to better understand the ability of dynamic TOPMODEL to represent low flows in space and time. Finally, we discuss future developments of dynamic TOPMODEL to improve low flow simulation and the implications of these results for modelling hydrological extremes in natural and human impacted catchments across the UK and the world.

Comparing the Cognitive Process of Circular Causality in Two Patients with Strokes through Qualitative Analysis.

PubMed

Derakhshanrad, Seyed Alireza; Piven, Emily; Ghoochani, Bahareh Zeynalzadeh

2017-10-01

Walter J. Freeman pioneered the neurodynamic model of brain activity when he described the brain dynamics for cognitive information transfer as the process of circular causality at intention, meaning, and perception (IMP) levels. This view contributed substantially to establishment of the Intention, Meaning, and Perception Model of Neuro-occupation in occupational therapy. As described by the model, IMP levels are three components of the brain dynamics system, with nonlinear connections that enable cognitive function to be processed in a circular causality fashion, known as Cognitive Process of Circular Causality (CPCC). Although considerable research has been devoted to study the brain dynamics by sophisticated computerized imaging techniques, less attention has been paid to study it through investigating the adaptation process of thoughts and behaviors. To explore how CPCC manifested thinking and behavioral patterns, a qualitative case study was conducted on two matched female participants with strokes, who were of comparable ages, affected sides, and other characteristics, except for their resilience and motivational behaviors. CPCC was compared by matrix analysis between two participants, using content analysis with pre-determined categories. Different patterns of thinking and behavior may have happened, due to disparate regulation of CPCC between two participants.

Dual Rate Adaptive Control for an Industrial Heat Supply Process Using Signal Compensation Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chai, Tianyou; Jia, Yao; Wang, Hong

The industrial heat supply process (HSP) is a highly nonlinear cascaded process which uses a steam valve opening as its control input, the steam flow-rate as its inner loop output and the supply water temperature as its outer loop output. The relationship between the heat exchange rate and the model parameters, such as steam density, entropy, and fouling correction factor and heat exchange efficiency are unknown and nonlinear. Moreover, these model parameters vary in line with steam pressure, ambient temperature and the residuals caused by the quality variations of the circulation water. When the steam pressure and the ambient temperaturemore » are of high values and are subjected to frequent external random disturbances, the supply water temperature and the steam flow-rate would interact with each other and fluctuate a lot. This is also true when the process exhibits unknown characteristic variations of the process dynamics caused by the unexpected changes of the heat exchange residuals. As a result, it is difficult to control the supply water temperature and the rates of changes of steam flow-rate well inside their targeted ranges. In this paper, a novel compensation signal based dual rate adaptive controller is developed by representing the unknown variations of dynamics as unmodeled dynamics. In the proposed controller design, such a compensation signal is constructed and added onto the control signal obtained from the linear deterministic model based feedback control design. Such a compensation signal aims at eliminating the unmodeled dynamics and the rate of changes of the currently sample unmodeled dynamics. A successful industrial application is carried out, where it has been shown that both the supply water temperature and the rate of the changes of the steam flow-rate can be controlled well inside their targeted ranges when the process is subjected to unknown variations of its dynamics.« less

Physical Modeling of Microtubules Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allain, Pierre; Kervrann, Charles

2014-10-01

Microtubules (MT) are highly dynamic tubulin polymers that are involved in many cellular processes such as mitosis, intracellular cell organization and vesicular transport. Nevertheless, the modeling of cytoskeleton and MT dynamics based on physical properties is difficult to achieve. Using the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, we propose to model the rigidity of microtubules on a physical basis using forces, mass and acceleration. In addition, we link microtubules growth and shrinkage to the presence of molecules (e.g. GTP-tubulin) in the cytosol. The overall model enables linking cytosol to microtubules dynamics in a constant state space thus allowing usage of data assimilation techniques.

Digital Signal Processing and Control for the Study of Gene Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Yong-Jun

2016-04-01

Thanks to the digital revolution, digital signal processing and control has been widely used in many areas of science and engineering today. It provides practical and powerful tools to model, simulate, analyze, design, measure, and control complex and dynamic systems such as robots and aircrafts. Gene networks are also complex dynamic systems which can be studied via digital signal processing and control. Unlike conventional computational methods, this approach is capable of not only modeling but also controlling gene networks since the experimental environment is mostly digital today. The overall aim of this article is to introduce digital signal processing and control as a useful tool for the study of gene networks.

Digital Signal Processing and Control for the Study of Gene Networks.

PubMed

Shin, Yong-Jun

2016-04-22

Thanks to the digital revolution, digital signal processing and control has been widely used in many areas of science and engineering today. It provides practical and powerful tools to model, simulate, analyze, design, measure, and control complex and dynamic systems such as robots and aircrafts. Gene networks are also complex dynamic systems which can be studied via digital signal processing and control. Unlike conventional computational methods, this approach is capable of not only modeling but also controlling gene networks since the experimental environment is mostly digital today. The overall aim of this article is to introduce digital signal processing and control as a useful tool for the study of gene networks.

Digital Signal Processing and Control for the Study of Gene Networks

PubMed Central

Shin, Yong-Jun

2016-01-01

Thanks to the digital revolution, digital signal processing and control has been widely used in many areas of science and engineering today. It provides practical and powerful tools to model, simulate, analyze, design, measure, and control complex and dynamic systems such as robots and aircrafts. Gene networks are also complex dynamic systems which can be studied via digital signal processing and control. Unlike conventional computational methods, this approach is capable of not only modeling but also controlling gene networks since the experimental environment is mostly digital today. The overall aim of this article is to introduce digital signal processing and control as a useful tool for the study of gene networks. PMID:27102828

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Modeling for High Rate Pulverized Coal Injection (PCI) into the Blast Furnace

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dr. Chenn Zhou

2008-10-15

Pulverized coal injection (PCI) into the blast furnace (BF) has been recognized as an effective way to decrease the coke and total energy consumption along with minimization of environmental impacts. However, increasing the amount of coal injected into the BF is currently limited by the lack of knowledge of some issues related to the process. It is therefore important to understand the complex physical and chemical phenomena in the PCI process. Due to the difficulty in attaining trus BF measurements, Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling has been identified as a useful technology to provide such knowledge. CFD simulation is powerfulmore » for providing detailed information on flow properties and performing parametric studies for process design and optimization. In this project, comprehensive 3-D CFD models have been developed to simulate the PCI process under actual furnace conditions. These models provide raceway size and flow property distributions. The results have provided guidance for optimizing the PCI process.« less

Comparison between remote sensing and a dynamic vegetation model for estimating terrestrial primary production of Africa.

PubMed

Ardö, Jonas

2015-12-01

Africa is an important part of the global carbon cycle. It is also a continent facing potential problems due to increasing resource demand in combination with climate change-induced changes in resource supply. Quantifying the pools and fluxes constituting the terrestrial African carbon cycle is a challenge, because of uncertainties in meteorological driver data, lack of validation data, and potentially uncertain representation of important processes in major ecosystems. In this paper, terrestrial primary production estimates derived from remote sensing and a dynamic vegetation model are compared and quantified for major African land cover types. Continental gross primary production estimates derived from remote sensing were higher than corresponding estimates derived from a dynamic vegetation model. However, estimates of continental net primary production from remote sensing were lower than corresponding estimates from the dynamic vegetation model. Variation was found among land cover classes, and the largest differences in gross primary production were found in the evergreen broadleaf forest. Average carbon use efficiency (NPP/GPP) was 0.58 for the vegetation model and 0.46 for the remote sensing method. Validation versus in situ data of aboveground net primary production revealed significant positive relationships for both methods. A combination of the remote sensing method with the dynamic vegetation model did not strongly affect this relationship. Observed significant differences in estimated vegetation productivity may have several causes, including model design and temperature sensitivity. Differences in carbon use efficiency reflect underlying model assumptions. Integrating the realistic process representation of dynamic vegetation models with the high resolution observational strength of remote sensing may support realistic estimation of components of the carbon cycle and enhance resource monitoring, providing suitable validation data is available.

Toward the Darwinian transition: Switching between distributed and speciated states in a simple model of early life.

PubMed

Arnoldt, Hinrich; Strogatz, Steven H; Timme, Marc

2015-01-01

It has been hypothesized that in the era just before the last universal common ancestor emerged, life on earth was fundamentally collective. Ancient life forms shared their genetic material freely through massive horizontal gene transfer (HGT). At a certain point, however, life made a transition to the modern era of individuality and vertical descent. Here we present a minimal model for stochastic processes potentially contributing to this hypothesized "Darwinian transition." The model suggests that HGT-dominated dynamics may have been intermittently interrupted by selection-driven processes during which genotypes became fitter and decreased their inclination toward HGT. Stochastic switching in the population dynamics with three-point (hypernetwork) interactions may have destabilized the HGT-dominated collective state and essentially contributed to the emergence of vertical descent and the first well-defined species in early evolution. A systematic nonlinear analysis of the stochastic model dynamics covering key features of evolutionary processes (such as selection, mutation, drift and HGT) supports this view. Our findings thus suggest a viable direction out of early collective evolution, potentially enabling the start of individuality and vertical Darwinian evolution.

Multibody dynamical modeling for spacecraft docking process with spring-damper buffering device: A new validation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daneshjou, Kamran; Alibakhshi, Reza

2018-01-01

In the current manuscript, the process of spacecraft docking, as one of the main risky operations in an on-orbit servicing mission, is modeled based on unconstrained multibody dynamics. The spring-damper buffering device is utilized here in the docking probe-cone system for micro-satellites. Owing to the impact occurs inevitably during docking process and the motion characteristics of multibody systems are remarkably affected by this phenomenon, a continuous contact force model needs to be considered. Spring-damper buffering device, keeping the spacecraft stable in an orbit when impact occurs, connects a base (cylinder) inserted in the chaser satellite and the end of docking probe. Furthermore, by considering a revolute joint equipped with torsional shock absorber, between base and chaser satellite, the docking probe can experience both translational and rotational motions simultaneously. Although spacecraft docking process accompanied by the buffering mechanisms may be modeled by constrained multibody dynamics, this paper deals with a simple and efficient formulation to eliminate the surplus generalized coordinates and solve the impact docking problem based on unconstrained Lagrangian mechanics. By an example problem, first, model verification is accomplished by comparing the computed results with those recently reported in the literature. Second, according to a new alternative validation approach, which is based on constrained multibody problem, the accuracy of presented model can be also evaluated. This proposed verification approach can be applied to indirectly solve the constrained multibody problems by minimum required effort. The time history of impact force, the influence of system flexibility and physical interaction between shock absorber and penetration depth caused by impact are the issues followed in this paper. Third, the MATLAB/SIMULINK multibody dynamic analysis software will be applied to build impact docking model to validate computed results and then, investigate the trajectories of both satellites to take place the successful capture process.

Exploring the Role of Social Media and Individual Behaviors in Flood Evacuation Processes: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Erhu; Cai, Ximing; Sun, Zhiyong; Minsker, Barbara

2017-11-01

Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a nonlinear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings, and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

Critical zone evolution and the origins of organised complexity in watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harman, C.; Troch, P. A.; Pelletier, J.; Rasmussen, C.; Chorover, J.

2012-04-01

The capacity of the landscape to store and transmit water is the result of a historical trajectory of landscape, soil and vegetation development, much of which is driven by hydrology itself. Progress in geomorphology and pedology has produced models of surface and sub-surface evolution in soil-mantled uplands. These dissected, denuding modeled landscapes are emblematic of the kinds of dissipative self-organized flow structures whose hydrologic organization may also be understood by low-dimensional hydrologic models. They offer an exciting starting-point for examining the mapping between the long-term controls on landscape evolution and the high-frequency hydrologic dynamics. Here we build on recent theoretical developments in geomorphology and pedology to try to understand how the relative rates of erosion, sediment transport and soil development in a landscape determine catchment storage capacity and the relative dominance of runoff process, flow pathways and storage-discharge relationships. We do so by using a combination of landscape evolution models, hydrologic process models and data from a variety of sources, including the University of Arizona Critical Zone Observatory. A challenge to linking the landscape evolution and hydrologic model representations is the vast differences in the timescales implicit in the process representations. Furthermore the vast array of processes involved makes parameterization of such models an enormous challenge. The best data-constrained geomorphic transport and soil development laws only represent hydrologic processes implicitly, through the transport and weathering rate parameters. In this work we propose to avoid this problem by identifying the relationship between the landscape and soil evolution parameters and macroscopic climate and geological controls. These macroscopic controls (such as the aridity index) have two roles: 1) they express the water and energy constraints on the long-term evolution of the landscape system, and 2) they bound the range of plausible short-term hydroclimatic regimes that may drive a particular landscape's hydrologic dynamics. To ensure that the hydrologic dynamics implicit in the evolutionary parameters are compatible with the dynamics observed in the hydrologic modeling, a set of consistency checks based on flow process dominance are developed.

A general science-based framework for dynamical spatio-temporal models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wikle, C.K.; Hooten, M.B.

2010-01-01

Spatio-temporal statistical models are increasingly being used across a wide variety of scientific disciplines to describe and predict spatially-explicit processes that evolve over time. Correspondingly, in recent years there has been a significant amount of research on new statistical methodology for such models. Although descriptive models that approach the problem from the second-order (covariance) perspective are important, and innovative work is being done in this regard, many real-world processes are dynamic, and it can be more efficient in some cases to characterize the associated spatio-temporal dependence by the use of dynamical models. The chief challenge with the specification of such dynamical models has been related to the curse of dimensionality. Even in fairly simple linear, first-order Markovian, Gaussian error settings, statistical models are often over parameterized. Hierarchical models have proven invaluable in their ability to deal to some extent with this issue by allowing dependency among groups of parameters. In addition, this framework has allowed for the specification of science based parameterizations (and associated prior distributions) in which classes of deterministic dynamical models (e. g., partial differential equations (PDEs), integro-difference equations (IDEs), matrix models, and agent-based models) are used to guide specific parameterizations. Most of the focus for the application of such models in statistics has been in the linear case. The problems mentioned above with linear dynamic models are compounded in the case of nonlinear models. In this sense, the need for coherent and sensible model parameterizations is not only helpful, it is essential. Here, we present an overview of a framework for incorporating scientific information to motivate dynamical spatio-temporal models. First, we illustrate the methodology with the linear case. We then develop a general nonlinear spatio-temporal framework that we call general quadratic nonlinearity and demonstrate that it accommodates many different classes of scientific-based parameterizations as special cases. The model is presented in a hierarchical Bayesian framework and is illustrated with examples from ecology and oceanography. ?? 2010 Sociedad de Estad??stica e Investigaci??n Operativa.

Modelling carbon responses of tundra ecosystems to historical and projected climate: A comparison of a plot- and a global-scale ecosystem model to identify process-based uncertainties

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clein, Joy S.; Kwiatkowski, B.L.; McGuire, A.D.; Hobbie, J.E.; Rastetter, E.B.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.

2000-01-01

We are developing a process-based modelling approach to investigate how carbon (C) storage of tundra across the entire Arctic will respond to projected climate change. To implement the approach, the processes that are least understood, and thus have the most uncertainty, need to be identified and studied. In this paper, we identified a key uncertainty by comparing the responses of C storage in tussock tundra at one site between the simulations of two models - one a global-scale ecosystem model (Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, TEM) and one a plot-scale ecosystem model (General Ecosystem Model, GEM). The simulations spanned the historical period (1921-94) and the projected period (1995-2100). In the historical period, the model simulations of net primary production (NPP) differed in their sensitivity to variability in climate. However, the long-term changes in C storage were similar in both simulations, because the dynamics of heterotrophic respiration (RH) were similar in both models. In contrast, the responses of C storage in the two model simulations diverged during the projected period. In the GEM simulation for this period, increases in RH tracked increases in NPP, whereas in the TEM simulation increases in RH lagged increases in NPP. We were able to make the long-term C dynamics of the two simulations agree by parameterizing TEM to the fast soil C pools of GEM. We concluded that the differences between the long-term C dynamics of the two simulations lay in modelling the role of the recalcitrant soil C. These differences, which reflect an incomplete understanding of soil processes, lead to quite different projections of the response of pan-Arctic C storage to global change. For example, the reference parameterization of TEM resulted in an estimate of cumulative C storage of 2032 g C m-2 for moist tundra north of 50??N, which was substantially higher than the 463 g C m-2 estimated for a parameterization of fast soil C dynamics. This uncertainty in the depiction of the role of recalcitrant soil C in long-term ecosystem C dynamics resulted from our incomplete understanding of controls over C and N transformations in Arctic soils. Mechanistic studies of these issues are needed to improve our ability to model the response of Arctic ecosystems to global change.

A Process Model of Family Formation and Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garland, Diana R.

2012-01-01

Theoretical models of family formation have assumed sexual coupling as the foundation of family life. This article proposes instead a model of family formation predicated on the processes of taking care of one another, eating together, and sharing life together. The interpersonal dynamics that distinguish a family from other close relationships…

A general model for attitude determination error analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markley, F. Landis; Seidewitz, ED; Nicholson, Mark

1988-01-01

An overview is given of a comprehensive approach to filter and dynamics modeling for attitude determination error analysis. The models presented include both batch least-squares and sequential attitude estimation processes for both spin-stabilized and three-axis stabilized spacecraft. The discussion includes a brief description of a dynamics model of strapdown gyros, but it does not cover other sensor models. Model parameters can be chosen to be solve-for parameters, which are assumed to be estimated as part of the determination process, or consider parameters, which are assumed to have errors but not to be estimated. The only restriction on this choice is that the time evolution of the consider parameters must not depend on any of the solve-for parameters. The result of an error analysis is an indication of the contributions of the various error sources to the uncertainties in the determination of the spacecraft solve-for parameters. The model presented gives the uncertainty due to errors in the a priori estimates of the solve-for parameters, the uncertainty due to measurement noise, the uncertainty due to dynamic noise (also known as process noise or measurement noise), the uncertainty due to the consider parameters, and the overall uncertainty due to all these sources of error.

Space Shuttle Main Engine Low Pressure Oxidizer Turbo-Pump Inducer Dynamic Environment Characterization through Water Model and Hot-Fire Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arellano, Patrick; Patton, Marc; Schwartz, Alan; Stanton, David

2006-01-01

The Low Pressure Oxidizer Turbopump (LPOTP) inducer on the Block II configuration Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) experienced blade leading edge ripples during hot firing. This undesirable condition led to a minor redesign of the inducer blades. This resulted in the need to evaluate the performance and the dynamic environment of the redesign, relative to the current configuration, as part of the design acceptance process. Sub-scale water model tests of the two inducer configurations were performed, with emphasis on the dynamic environment due to cavitation induced vibrations. Water model tests were performed over a wide range of inlet flow coefficient and pressure conditions, representative of the scaled operating envelope of the Block II SSME, both in flight and in ground hot-fire tests, including all power levels. The water test hardware, facility set-up, type and placement of instrumentation, the scope of the test program, specific test objectives, data evaluation process and water test results that characterize and compare the two SSME LPOTP inducers are discussed. In addition, dynamic characteristics of the two water models were compared to hot fire data from specially instrumented ground tests. In general, good agreement between the water model and hot fire data was found, which confirms the value of water model testing for dynamic characterization of rocket engine turbomachinery.

Dynamic interactions in neural networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arbib, M.A.; Amari, S.

The study of neural networks is enjoying a great renaissance, both in computational neuroscience, the development of information processing models of living brains, and in neural computing, the use of neurally inspired concepts in the construction of intelligent machines. This volume presents models and data on the dynamic interactions occurring in the brain, and exhibits the dynamic interactions between research in computational neuroscience and in neural computing. The authors present current research, future trends and open problems.

Modeling Stochastic Complexity in Complex Adaptive Systems: Non-Kolmogorov Probability and the Process Algebra Approach.

PubMed

Sulis, William H

2017-10-01

Walter Freeman III pioneered the application of nonlinear dynamical systems theories and methodologies in his work on mesoscopic brain dynamics.Sadly, mainstream psychology and psychiatry still cling to linear correlation based data analysis techniques, which threaten to subvert the process of experimentation and theory building. In order to progress, it is necessary to develop tools capable of managing the stochastic complexity of complex biopsychosocial systems, which includes multilevel feedback relationships, nonlinear interactions, chaotic dynamics and adaptability. In addition, however, these systems exhibit intrinsic randomness, non-Gaussian probability distributions, non-stationarity, contextuality, and non-Kolmogorov probabilities, as well as the absence of mean and/or variance and conditional probabilities. These properties and their implications for statistical analysis are discussed. An alternative approach, the Process Algebra approach, is described. It is a generative model, capable of generating non-Kolmogorov probabilities. It has proven useful in addressing fundamental problems in quantum mechanics and in the modeling of developing psychosocial systems.

Quantum decision-maker theory and simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zak, Michail; Meyers, Ronald E.; Deacon, Keith S.

2000-07-01

A quantum device simulating the human decision making process is introduced. It consists of quantum recurrent nets generating stochastic processes which represent the motor dynamics, and of classical neural nets describing the evolution of probabilities of these processes which represent the mental dynamics. The autonomy of the decision making process is achieved by a feedback from the mental to motor dynamics which changes the stochastic matrix based upon the probability distribution. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by an internal knowledge- base stored in the mental model in the form of probability distributions. As a result, the coupled motor-mental dynamics is described by a nonlinear version of Markov chains which can decrease entropy without an external source of information. Applications to common sense based decisions as well as to evolutionary games are discussed. An example exhibiting self-organization is computed using quantum computer simulation. Force on force and mutual aircraft engagements using the quantum decision maker dynamics are considered.

Characterizing Feedback Control Mechanisms in Nonlinear Microbial Models of Soil Organic Matter Decomposition by Stability Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiou, K.; Tang, J.; Riley, W. J.; Torn, M. S.

2014-12-01

Soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition is regulated by biotic and abiotic processes. Feedback interactions between such processes may act to dampen oscillatory responses to perturbations from equilibrium. Indeed, although biological oscillations have been observed in small-scale laboratory incubations, the overlying behavior at the plot-scale exhibits a relatively stable response to disturbances in input rates and temperature. Recent studies have demonstrated the ability of microbial models to capture nonlinear feedbacks in SOM decomposition that linear Century-type models are unable to reproduce, such as soil priming in response to increased carbon input. However, these microbial models often exhibit strong oscillatory behavior that is deemed unrealistic. The inherently nonlinear dynamics of SOM decomposition have important implications for global climate-carbon and carbon-concentration feedbacks. It is therefore imperative to represent these dynamics in Earth System Models (ESMs) by introducing sub-models that accurately represent microbial and abiotic processes. In the present study we explore, both analytically and numerically, four microbe-enabled model structures of varying levels of complexity. The most complex model combines microbial physiology, a non-linear mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. Based on detailed stability analysis of the nonlinear dynamics, we calculate the system modes as functions of model parameters. This dependence provides insight into the source of state oscillations. We find that feedback mechanisms that emerge from careful representation of enzyme and mineral interactions, with parameter values in a prescribed range, are critical for both maintaining system stability and capturing realistic responses to disturbances. Corroborating and expanding upon the results of recent studies, we explain the emergence of oscillatory responses and discuss the appropriate microbe-enabled model structure for inclusion in ESMs.

Dynamic Model of Basic Oxygen Steelmaking Process Based on Multi-zone Reaction Kinetics: Model Derivation and Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rout, Bapin Kumar; Brooks, Geoff; Rhamdhani, M. Akbar; Li, Zushu; Schrama, Frank N. H.; Sun, Jianjun

2018-04-01

A multi-zone kinetic model coupled with a dynamic slag generation model was developed for the simulation of hot metal and slag composition during the basic oxygen furnace (BOF) operation. The three reaction zones (i) jet impact zone, (ii) slag-bulk metal zone, (iii) slag-metal-gas emulsion zone were considered for the calculation of overall refining kinetics. In the rate equations, the transient rate parameters were mathematically described as a function of process variables. A micro and macroscopic rate calculation methodology (micro-kinetics and macro-kinetics) were developed to estimate the total refining contributed by the recirculating metal droplets through the slag-metal emulsion zone. The micro-kinetics involves developing the rate equation for individual droplets in the emulsion. The mathematical models for the size distribution of initial droplets, kinetics of simultaneous refining of elements, the residence time in the emulsion, and dynamic interfacial area change were established in the micro-kinetic model. In the macro-kinetics calculation, a droplet generation model was employed and the total amount of refining by emulsion was calculated by summing the refining from the entire population of returning droplets. A dynamic FetO generation model based on oxygen mass balance was developed and coupled with the multi-zone kinetic model. The effect of post-combustion on the evolution of slag and metal composition was investigated. The model was applied to a 200-ton top blowing converter and the simulated value of metal and slag was found to be in good agreement with the measured data. The post-combustion ratio was found to be an important factor in controlling FetO content in the slag and the kinetics of Mn and P in a BOF process.

Dynamic Models and Coordination Analysis of Reverse Supply Chain with Remanufacturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Nina

In this paper, we establish a reverse chain system with one manufacturer and one retailer under demand uncertainties. Distinguishing between the recycling process of the retailer and the remanufacturing process of the manufacturer, we formulate a two-stage dynamic model for reverse supply chain based on remanufacturing. Using buyback contract as coordination mechanism and applying dynamic programming the optimal decision problems for each stage are analyzed. It concluded that the reverse supply chain system could be coordinated under the given condition. Finally, we carry out numerical calculations to analyze the expected profits for the manufacturer and the retailer under different recovery rates and recovery prices and the outcomes validate the theoretical analyses.

An Approach for Dynamic Optimization of Prevention Program Implementation in Stochastic Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Yuncheol; Prabhu, Vittal

The science of preventing youth problems has significantly advanced in developing evidence-based prevention program (EBP) by using randomized clinical trials. Effective EBP can reduce delinquency, aggression, violence, bullying and substance abuse among youth. Unfortunately the outcomes of EBP implemented in natural settings usually tend to be lower than in clinical trials, which has motivated the need to study EBP implementations. In this paper we propose to model EBP implementations in natural settings as stochastic dynamic processes. Specifically, we propose Markov Decision Process (MDP) for modeling and dynamic optimization of such EBP implementations. We illustrate these concepts using simple numerical examples and discuss potential challenges in using such approaches in practice.

Investigation of Dynamic and Physical Processes in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selkirk, Henry B.; Pfister, Leonhard (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Research under this Cooperative Agreement has been funded by several NASA Earth Science programs: the Atmospheric Effects of Radiation Program (AEAP), the Upper Atmospheric Research Program (UARP), and most recently the Atmospheric Chemistry and Modeling Assessment Program (ACMAP). The purpose of the AEAP was to understand the impact of the present and future fleets of conventional jet traffic on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, while complementary airborne observations under UARP seek to understand the complex interactions of dynamical and chemical processes that affect the ozone layer. The ACMAP is a more general program of modeling and data analysis in the general area of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, and the Radiation Sciences program.

Representing Micro-Macro Linkages by Actor-Based Dynamic Network Models

PubMed Central

Snijders, Tom A.B.; Steglich, Christian E.G.

2014-01-01

Stochastic actor-based models for network dynamics have the primary aim of statistical inference about processes of network change, but may be regarded as a kind of agent-based models. Similar to many other agent-based models, they are based on local rules for actor behavior. Different from many other agent-based models, by including elements of generalized linear statistical models they aim to be realistic detailed representations of network dynamics in empirical data sets. Statistical parallels to micro-macro considerations can be found in the estimation of parameters determining local actor behavior from empirical data, and the assessment of goodness of fit from the correspondence with network-level descriptives. This article studies several network-level consequences of dynamic actor-based models applied to represent cross-sectional network data. Two examples illustrate how network-level characteristics can be obtained as emergent features implied by micro-specifications of actor-based models. PMID:25960578

Data Intensive Systems (DIS) Benchmark Performance Summary

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-08-01

models assumed by today’s conventional architectures. Such applications include model- based Automatic Target Recognition (ATR), synthetic aperture...radar (SAR) codes, large scale dynamic databases/battlefield integration, dynamic sensor- based processing, high-speed cryptanalysis, high speed...distributed interactive and data intensive simulations, data-oriented problems characterized by pointer- based and other highly irregular data structures

Classifying and comparing spatial models of fire dynamics

Treesearch

Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Mike D. Flannigan

2007-01-01

Wildland fire is a significant disturbance in many ecosystems worldwide and the interaction of fire with climate and vegetation over long time spans has major effects on vegetation dynamics, ecosystem carbon budgets, and patterns of biodiversity. Landscape-Fire-Succession Models (LFSMs) that simulate the linked processes of fire and vegetation development in a spatial...

A Model of Practice in Special Education: Dynamic Ecological Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hannant, Barbara; Lim, Eng Leong; McAllum, Ruth

2010-01-01

Dynamic Ecological Analysis (DEA) is a model of practice which increases a teams' efficacy by enabling the development of more effective interventions through collaboration and collective reflection. This process has proved to be useful in: a) clarifying thinking and problem-solving, b) transferring knowledge and thinking to significant parties,…

Mathematical modelling and linear stability analysis of laser fusion cutting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hermanns, Torsten; Schulz, Wolfgang; Vossen, Georg

A model for laser fusion cutting is presented and investigated by linear stability analysis in order to study the tendency for dynamic behavior and subsequent ripple formation. The result is a so called stability function that describes the correlation of the setting values of the process and the process’ amount of dynamic behavior.

Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

2016-04-01

This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support our hypothesis. That is, the change of vegetation in space and time may be better understood when modelling vegetation change as both a dynamic and multivariate process. Therefore, future research will focus on a multivariate dynamical spatio-temporal modelling approach. This ongoing research is performed within the context of the project "Global impacts of hydrological and climatic extremes on vegetation" (project acronym: SAT-EX) which is part of the Belgian research programme for Earth Observation Stereo III.

Dynamic Simulation on the Installation Process of HGIS in Transformer Substation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tao; Li, Shaohua; Wang, Hu; Che, Deyong; Qi, Guangcai; Yao, Jianfeng; Zhang, Qingzhe

The technological requirements of Hypid Gas Insulated Switchgear (HGIS) installation in transformer substation is high and the control points of quality is excessive. Most of the engineers and technicians in the construction enterprises are not familiar with equipments of HGIS. In order to solve these problem, equipments of HGIS is modeled on the computer by SolidWorks software. Installation process of civil foundation and closed-type equipments is optimized dynamically with virtual assemble technology. Announcements and application work are composited into animation file. Skills of modeling and simulation is tidied classify as well. The result of the visual dynamic simulation can instruct the actual construction process of HGIS to a certain degree and can promote reasonable construction planning and management. It can also improve the method and quality of staff training for electric power construction enterprises.

Implementing vertex dynamics models of cell populations in biology within a consistent computational framework.

PubMed

Fletcher, Alexander G; Osborne, James M; Maini, Philip K; Gavaghan, David J

2013-11-01

The dynamic behaviour of epithelial cell sheets plays a central role during development, growth, disease and wound healing. These processes occur as a result of cell adhesion, migration, division, differentiation and death, and involve multiple processes acting at the cellular and molecular level. Computational models offer a useful means by which to investigate and test hypotheses about these processes, and have played a key role in the study of cell-cell interactions. However, the necessarily complex nature of such models means that it is difficult to make accurate comparison between different models, since it is often impossible to distinguish between differences in behaviour that are due to the underlying model assumptions, and those due to differences in the in silico implementation of the model. In this work, an approach is described for the implementation of vertex dynamics models, a discrete approach that represents each cell by a polygon (or polyhedron) whose vertices may move in response to forces. The implementation is undertaken in a consistent manner within a single open source computational framework, Chaste, which comprises fully tested, industrial-grade software that has been developed using an agile approach. This framework allows one to easily change assumptions regarding force generation and cell rearrangement processes within these models. The versatility and generality of this framework is illustrated using a number of biological examples. In each case we provide full details of all technical aspects of our model implementations, and in some cases provide extensions to make the models more generally applicable. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linking river management to species conservation using dynamic landscape scale models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freeman, Mary C.; Buell, Gary R.; Hay, Lauren E.; Hughes, W. Brian; Jacobson, Robert B.; Jones, John W.; Jones, S.A.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Odom, Kenneth R.; Peterson, James T.; Riley, Jeffrey W.; Schindler, J. Stephen; Shea, C.; Weaver, J.D.

2013-01-01

Efforts to conserve stream and river biota could benefit from tools that allow managers to evaluate landscape-scale changes in species distributions in response to water management decisions. We present a framework and methods for integrating hydrology, geographic context and metapopulation processes to simulate effects of changes in streamflow on fish occupancy dynamics across a landscape of interconnected stream segments. We illustrate this approach using a 482 km2 catchment in the southeastern US supporting 50 or more stream fish species. A spatially distributed, deterministic and physically based hydrologic model is used to simulate daily streamflow for sub-basins composing the catchment. We use geographic data to characterize stream segments with respect to channel size, confinement, position and connectedness within the stream network. Simulated streamflow dynamics are then applied to model fish metapopulation dynamics in stream segments, using hypothesized effects of streamflow magnitude and variability on population processes, conditioned by channel characteristics. The resulting time series simulate spatially explicit, annual changes in species occurrences or assemblage metrics (e.g. species richness) across the catchment as outcomes of management scenarios. Sensitivity analyses using alternative, plausible links between streamflow components and metapopulation processes, or allowing for alternative modes of fish dispersal, demonstrate large effects of ecological uncertainty on model outcomes and highlight needed research and monitoring. Nonetheless, with uncertainties explicitly acknowledged, dynamic, landscape-scale simulations may prove useful for quantitatively comparing river management alternatives with respect to species conservation.

Building a Bridge into the Future: Dynamic Connectionist Modeling as an Integrative Tool for Research on Intertemporal Choice

PubMed Central

Scherbaum, Stefan; Dshemuchadse, Maja; Goschke, Thomas

2012-01-01

Temporal discounting denotes the fact that individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to a higher extent than suggested by normative economical theories. In this article, we identify three lines of research studying this phenomenon which aim (i) to describe temporal discounting mathematically, (ii) to explain observed choice behavior psychologically, and (iii) to predict the influence of specific factors on intertemporal decisions. We then opt for an approach integrating postulated mechanisms and empirical findings from these three lines of research. Our approach focuses on the dynamical properties of decision processes and is based on computational modeling. We present a dynamic connectionist model of intertemporal choice focusing on the role of self-control and time framing as two central factors determining choice behavior. Results of our simulations indicate that the two influences interact with each other, and we present experimental data supporting this prediction. We conclude that computational modeling of the decision process dynamics can advance the integration of different strands of research in intertemporal choice. PMID:23181048

Building a bridge into the future: dynamic connectionist modeling as an integrative tool for research on intertemporal choice.

PubMed

Scherbaum, Stefan; Dshemuchadse, Maja; Goschke, Thomas

2012-01-01

Temporal discounting denotes the fact that individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to a higher extent than suggested by normative economical theories. In this article, we identify three lines of research studying this phenomenon which aim (i) to describe temporal discounting mathematically, (ii) to explain observed choice behavior psychologically, and (iii) to predict the influence of specific factors on intertemporal decisions. We then opt for an approach integrating postulated mechanisms and empirical findings from these three lines of research. Our approach focuses on the dynamical properties of decision processes and is based on computational modeling. We present a dynamic connectionist model of intertemporal choice focusing on the role of self-control and time framing as two central factors determining choice behavior. Results of our simulations indicate that the two influences interact with each other, and we present experimental data supporting this prediction. We conclude that computational modeling of the decision process dynamics can advance the integration of different strands of research in intertemporal choice.

Role of optimization in the human dynamics of task execution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cajueiro, Daniel O.; Maldonado, Wilfredo L.

2008-03-01

In order to explain the empirical evidence that the dynamics of human activity may not be well modeled by Poisson processes, a model based on queuing processes was built in the literature [A. L. Barabasi, Nature (London) 435, 207 (2005)]. The main assumption behind that model is that people execute their tasks based on a protocol that first executes the high priority item. In this context, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the validity of that hypothesis assuming that people are rational agents that make their decisions in order to minimize the cost of keeping nonexecuted tasks on the list. Therefore, we build and analytically solve a dynamic programming model with two priority types of tasks and show that the validity of this hypothesis depends strongly on the structure of the instantaneous costs that a person has to face if a given task is kept on the list for more than one period. Moreover, one interesting finding is that in one of the situations the protocol used to execute the tasks generates complex one-dimensional dynamics.

A discrete mathematical model of the dynamic evolution of a transportation network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malinetskii, G. G.; Stepantsov, M. E.

2009-09-01

A dynamic model of the evolution of a transportation network is proposed. The main feature of this model is that the evolution of the transportation network is not a process of centralized transportation optimization. Rather, its dynamic behavior is a result of the system self-organization that occurs in the course of the satisfaction of needs in goods transportation and the evolution of the infrastructure of the network nodes. Nonetheless, the possibility of soft control of the network evolution direction is taken into account.

Theoretical study of optical pump process in solid gain medium based on four-energy-level model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yongjun; Fan, Zhongwei; Zhang, Bin; Yu, Jin; Zhang, Hongbo

2018-04-01

A semiclassical algorithm is explored to a four-energy level model, aiming to find out the factors that affect the dynamics behavior during the pump process. The impacts of pump intensity Ω p , non-radiative transition rate γ 43 and decay rate of electric dipole δ 14 are discussed in detail. The calculation results show that large γ 43, small δ 14, and strong pumping Ω p are beneficial to the establishing of population inversion. Under strong pumping conditions, the entire pump process can be divided into four different phases, tentatively named far-from-equilibrium process, Rabi oscillation process, quasi dynamic equilibrium process and ‘equilibrium’ process. The Rabi oscillation can slow the pumping process and cause some instability. Moreover, the duration of the entire process is negatively related to Ω p and γ 43 whereas positively related to δ 14.

Assessment of Climate Driven Dynamics of Active Layer, Hydrological and Vegetation Status at the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Using Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.

2014-12-01

Extensive permafrost degradation starting from 1970s is observed at the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau , China. Degradation is attributed to an increase in mean annual ground temperature 0.1◦-0.5◦ C with mainly winter warming. The construction of Qinghai-Tibet Railway also influenced a state of permafrost in the area Permafrost degradation caused negative environmental consequences in the area. The areas covered by sand are expanding steadily making large concern of accelerating desertification. The general pathway of future joint dynamics of permafrost, vegetation and hydrological status at the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is still poorly understood and foreseeable. Hydrology in the area is determined by heat-moisture dynamics of active layer. This dynamics is highly non-linear and depends as on external climatic variables temperature and precipitation, so on soil and rock properties (amount of sand against aeolian deposits in the Plateau) as well as vegetation cover, which determine thaw and freeze processes in the active layer and evaporation and run-off. SEVER DGVM was modified to include heat-moisture dynamics of active layer in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. SEVER DGVM imitates processes in 10 plant functional types at coarse resolution of 0.5 degrees. This model imitates behavior of average individual of each plant type in each grid cell through simulation years. Each of those grid cells processed independently. First, this model starts from "bare soil", placing a bit of each plant type and giving them some time to grow and achieve equilibrium. Then, including active layer thickness and soil moisture dynamics into this layer, it allows assessment of potential environmental dynamics in this area. Simulations demonstrate further degradation of pastureland and accelerating desertification processes in this vitally important water feed area for many Asian rivers. Negative environmental problems related to operation of Qinghai-Tibet are also assessed.

Coupled turbulence and aerosol dynamics modeling of vehicle exhaust plumes using the CTAG model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yan Jason; Zhang, K. Max

2012-11-01

This paper presents the development and evaluation of an environmental turbulent reacting flow model, the Comprehensive Turbulent Aerosol Dynamics and Gas Chemistry (CTAG) model. CTAG is designed to simulate transport and transformation of multiple air pollutants, e.g., from emission sources to ambient background. For the on-road and near-road applications, CTAG explicitly couples the major turbulent mixing processes, i.e., vehicle-induced turbulence (VIT), road-induced turbulence (RIT) and atmospheric boundary layer turbulence with gas-phase chemistry and aerosol dynamics. CTAG's transport model is referred to as CFD-VIT-RIT. This paper presents the evaluation of the CTAG model in simulating the dynamics of individual plumes in the “tailpipe-to-road” stage, i.e., VIT behind a moving van and aerosol dynamics in the wake of a diesel car by comparing the modeling results against the respective field measurements. Combined with sensitivity studies, we analyze the relative roles of VIT, sulfuric acid induced nucleation, condensation of organic compounds and presence of soot-mode particles in capturing the dynamics of exhaust plumes as well as their implications in vehicle emission controls.

Simulation of Healing Threshold in Strain-Induced Inflammation Through a Discrete Informatics Model.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Israr Bin M; Sarma O V, Sanjay; Pidaparti, Ramana M

2018-05-01

Respiratory diseases such as asthma and acute respiratory distress syndrome as well as acute lung injury involve inflammation at the cellular level. The inflammation process is very complex and is characterized by the emergence of cytokines along with other changes in cellular processes. Due to the complexity of the various constituents that makes up the inflammation dynamics, it is necessary to develop models that can complement experiments to fully understand inflammatory diseases. In this study, we developed a discrete informatics model based on cellular automata (CA) approach to investigate the influence of elastic field (stretch/strain) on the dynamics of inflammation and account for probabilistic adaptation based on statistical interpretation of existing experimental data. Our simulation model investigated the effects of low, medium, and high strain conditions on inflammation dynamics. Results suggest that the model is able to indicate the threshold of innate healing of tissue as a response to strain experienced by the tissue. When strain is under the threshold, the tissue is still capable of adapting its structure to heal the damaged part. However, there exists a strain threshold where healing capability breaks down. The results obtained demonstrate that the developed discrete informatics based CA model is capable of modeling and giving insights into inflammation dynamics parameters under various mechanical strain/stretch environments.

Theoretical studies in interstellar cloud chemistry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, Y. T.; Prasad, S. S.

1993-01-01

This final report represents the completion of the three tasks under the purchase order no. SCPDE5620,1,2F. Chemical composition of gravitationally contracting, but otherwise quiescent, interstellar clouds and of interstellar clouds traversed by high velocity shocks, were modeled in a comprehensive manner that represents a significant progress in modeling these objects. The evolutionary chemical modeling, done under this NASA contract, represents a notable advance over the 'classical' fixed condition equilibrium models because the evolutionary models consider not only the chemical processes but also the dynamical processes by which the dark interstellar clouds may have assumed their present state. The shock calculations, being reported here, are important because they extend the limited chemical composition derivable from dynamical calculations for the total density and temperature structures behind the shock front. In order to be tractable, the dynamical calculations must severely simplify the chemistry. The present shock calculations take the shock profiles from the dynamical calculations and derive chemical composition in a comprehensive manner. The results of the present modeling study are still to be analyzed with reference to astronomical observational data and other contemporary model predictions. As far as humanly possible, this analysis will be continued with CRE's (Creative Research Enterprises's) IR&D resources, until a sponsor is found.

Modeling the within-host dynamics of cholera: bacterial-viral interaction.

PubMed

Wang, Xueying; Wang, Jin

2017-08-01

Novel deterministic and stochastic models are proposed in this paper for the within-host dynamics of cholera, with a focus on the bacterial-viral interaction. The deterministic model is a system of differential equations describing the interaction among the two types of vibrios and the viruses. The stochastic model is a system of Markov jump processes that is derived based on the dynamics of the deterministic model. The multitype branching process approximation is applied to estimate the extinction probability of bacteria and viruses within a human host during the early stage of the bacterial-viral infection. Accordingly, a closed-form expression is derived for the disease extinction probability, and analytic estimates are validated with numerical simulations. The local and global dynamics of the bacterial-viral interaction are analysed using the deterministic model, and the result indicates that there is a sharp disease threshold characterized by the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text]: if [Formula: see text], vibrios ingested from the environment into human body will not cause cholera infection; if [Formula: see text], vibrios will grow with increased toxicity and persist within the host, leading to human cholera. In contrast, the stochastic model indicates, more realistically, that there is always a positive probability of disease extinction within the human host.

Simulations of Operation Dynamics of Different Type GaN Particle Sensors

PubMed Central

Gaubas, Eugenijus; Ceponis, Tomas; Kalesinskas, Vidas; Pavlov, Jevgenij; Vysniauskas, Juozas

2015-01-01

The operation dynamics of the capacitor-type and PIN diode type detectors based on GaN have been simulated using the dynamic and drift-diffusion models. The drift-diffusion current simulations have been implemented by employing the software package Synopsys TCAD Sentaurus. The monopolar and bipolar drift regimes have been analyzed by using dynamic models based on the Shockley-Ramo theorem. The carrier multiplication processes determined by impact ionization have been considered in order to compensate carrier lifetime reduction due to introduction of radiation defects into GaN detector material. PMID:25751080

Modelling and analysis of the sugar cataract development process using stochastic hybrid systems.

PubMed

Riley, D; Koutsoukos, X; Riley, K

2009-05-01

Modelling and analysis of biochemical systems such as sugar cataract development (SCD) are critical because they can provide new insights into systems, which cannot be easily tested with experiments; however, they are challenging problems due to the highly coupled chemical reactions that are involved. The authors present a stochastic hybrid system (SHS) framework for modelling biochemical systems and demonstrate the approach for the SCD process. A novel feature of the framework is that it allows modelling the effect of drug treatment on the system dynamics. The authors validate the three sugar cataract models by comparing trajectories computed by two simulation algorithms. Further, the authors present a probabilistic verification method for computing the probability of sugar cataract formation for different chemical concentrations using safety and reachability analysis methods for SHSs. The verification method employs dynamic programming based on a discretisation of the state space and therefore suffers from the curse of dimensionality. To analyse the SCD process, a parallel dynamic programming implementation that can handle large, realistic systems was developed. Although scalability is a limiting factor, this work demonstrates that the proposed method is feasible for realistic biochemical systems.

Automatic Conversational Scene Analysis in Children with Asperger Syndrome/High-Functioning Autism and Typically Developing Peers

PubMed Central

Tavano, Alessandro; Pesarin, Anna; Murino, Vittorio; Cristani, Marco

2014-01-01

Individuals with Asperger syndrome/High Functioning Autism fail to spontaneously attribute mental states to the self and others, a life-long phenotypic characteristic known as mindblindness. We hypothesized that mindblindness would affect the dynamics of conversational interaction. Using generative models, in particular Gaussian mixture models and observed influence models, conversations were coded as interacting Markov processes, operating on novel speech/silence patterns, termed Steady Conversational Periods (SCPs). SCPs assume that whenever an agent's process changes state (e.g., from silence to speech), it causes a general transition of the entire conversational process, forcing inter-actant synchronization. SCPs fed into observed influence models, which captured the conversational dynamics of children and adolescents with Asperger syndrome/High Functioning Autism, and age-matched typically developing participants. Analyzing the parameters of the models by means of discriminative classifiers, the dialogs of patients were successfully distinguished from those of control participants. We conclude that meaning-free speech/silence sequences, reflecting inter-actant synchronization, at least partially encode typical and atypical conversational dynamics. This suggests a direct influence of theory of mind abilities onto basic speech initiative behavior. PMID:24489674

Integration of the Gene Ontology into an object-oriented architecture.

PubMed

Shegogue, Daniel; Zheng, W Jim

2005-05-10

To standardize gene product descriptions, a formal vocabulary defined as the Gene Ontology (GO) has been developed. GO terms have been categorized into biological processes, molecular functions, and cellular components. However, there is no single representation that integrates all the terms into one cohesive model. Furthermore, GO definitions have little information explaining the underlying architecture that forms these terms, such as the dynamic and static events occurring in a process. In contrast, object-oriented models have been developed to show dynamic and static events. A portion of the TGF-beta signaling pathway, which is involved in numerous cellular events including cancer, differentiation and development, was used to demonstrate the feasibility of integrating the Gene Ontology into an object-oriented model. Using object-oriented models we have captured the static and dynamic events that occur during a representative GO process, "transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-beta) receptor complex assembly" (GO:0007181). We demonstrate that the utility of GO terms can be enhanced by object-oriented technology, and that the GO terms can be integrated into an object-oriented model by serving as a basis for the generation of object functions and attributes.

Integration of the Gene Ontology into an object-oriented architecture

PubMed Central

Shegogue, Daniel; Zheng, W Jim

2005-01-01

Background To standardize gene product descriptions, a formal vocabulary defined as the Gene Ontology (GO) has been developed. GO terms have been categorized into biological processes, molecular functions, and cellular components. However, there is no single representation that integrates all the terms into one cohesive model. Furthermore, GO definitions have little information explaining the underlying architecture that forms these terms, such as the dynamic and static events occurring in a process. In contrast, object-oriented models have been developed to show dynamic and static events. A portion of the TGF-beta signaling pathway, which is involved in numerous cellular events including cancer, differentiation and development, was used to demonstrate the feasibility of integrating the Gene Ontology into an object-oriented model. Results Using object-oriented models we have captured the static and dynamic events that occur during a representative GO process, "transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-beta) receptor complex assembly" (GO:0007181). Conclusion We demonstrate that the utility of GO terms can be enhanced by object-oriented technology, and that the GO terms can be integrated into an object-oriented model by serving as a basis for the generation of object functions and attributes. PMID:15885145

Thermo-Gas-Dynamic Model of Afterburning in Explosions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuhl, A L; Ferguson, R E; Bell, J B

2003-07-27

A theoretical model of afterburning in explosions created by turbulent mixing of the detonation products from fuel-rich charges with air is described. It contains three key elements: (i) a thermodynamic-equilibrium description of the fluids (fuel, air, and products), (ii) a multi-component gas-dynamic treatment of the flow field, and (iii) a sub-grid model of molecular processes of mixing, combustion and equilibration.

MC1: a dynamic vegetation model for estimating the distribution of vegetation and associated carbon, nutrients, and water—technical documentation. Version 1.0.

Treesearch

Dominique Bachelet; James M. Lenihan; Christopher Daly; Ronald P. Neilson; Dennis S. Ojima; William J. Parton

2001-01-01

Assessments of vegetation response to climate change have generally been made only by equilibrium vegetation models that predict vegetation composition under steady-state conditions. These models do not simulate either ecosystem biogeochemical processes or changes in ecosystem structure that may, in turn, act as feedbacks in determining the dynamics of vegetation...