Suppression of chaos at slow variables by rapidly mixing fast dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abramov, R.

2012-04-01

One of the key questions about chaotic multiscale systems is how the fast dynamics affects chaos at the slow variables, and, therefore, impacts uncertainty and predictability of the slow dynamics. Here we demonstrate that the linear slow-fast coupling with the total energy conservation property promotes the suppression of chaos at the slow variables through the rapid mixing at the fast variables, both theoretically and through numerical simulations. A suitable mathematical framework is developed, connecting the slow dynamics on the tangent subspaces to the infinite-time linear response of the mean state to a constant external forcing at the fast variables. Additionally, it is shown that the uncoupled dynamics for the slow variables may remain chaotic while the complete multiscale system loses chaos and becomes completely predictable at the slow variables through increasing chaos and turbulence at the fast variables. This result contradicts the common sense intuition, where, naturally, one would think that coupling a slow weakly chaotic system with another much faster and much stronger mixing system would result in general increase of chaos at the slow variables.

Effects of state recovery on creep buckling under variable loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, D. N.; Arnold, S. M.

1986-01-01

Structural alloys embody internal mechanisms that allow recovery of state with varying stress and elevated temperature, i.e., they can return to a softer state following periods of hardening. Such material behavior is known to strongly influence structural response under some important thermomechanical loadings, for example, that involving thermal ratchetting. The influence of dynamic and thermal recovery on the creep buckling of a column under variable loading is investigated. The column is taken as the idealized (Shanley) sandwich column. The constitutive model, unlike the commonly employed Norton creep model, incorporates a representation of both dynamic and thermal (state) recovery. The material parameters of the constitutive model are chosen to characterize Narloy Z, a representative copper alloy used in thrust nozzle liners of reusable rocket engines. Variable loading histories include rapid cyclic unloading/reloading sequences and intermittent reductions of load for extended periods of time; these are superimposed on a constant load. The calculated results show that state recovery significantly affects creep buckling under variable loading. Structural alloys embody internal mechanisms that allow recovery of state with varying stress and time.

General methods for sensitivity analysis of equilibrium dynamics in patch occupancy models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.W.

2012-01-01

Sensitivity analysis is a useful tool for the study of ecological models that has many potential applications for patch occupancy modeling. Drawing from the rich foundation of existing methods for Markov chain models, I demonstrate new methods for sensitivity analysis of the equilibrium state dynamics of occupancy models. Estimates from three previous studies are used to illustrate the utility of the sensitivity calculations: a joint occupancy model for a prey species, its predators, and habitat used by both; occurrence dynamics from a well-known metapopulation study of three butterfly species; and Golden Eagle occupancy and reproductive dynamics. I show how to deal efficiently with multistate models and how to calculate sensitivities involving derived state variables and lower-level parameters. In addition, I extend methods to incorporate environmental variation by allowing for spatial and temporal variability in transition probabilities. The approach used here is concise and general and can fully account for environmental variability in transition parameters. The methods can be used to improve inferences in occupancy studies by quantifying the effects of underlying parameters, aiding prediction of future system states, and identifying priorities for sampling effort.

A fast chaos-based image encryption scheme with a dynamic state variables selection mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jun-xin; Zhu, Zhi-liang; Fu, Chong; Yu, Hai; Zhang, Li-bo

2015-03-01

In recent years, a variety of chaos-based image cryptosystems have been investigated to meet the increasing demand for real-time secure image transmission. Most of them are based on permutation-diffusion architecture, in which permutation and diffusion are two independent procedures with fixed control parameters. This property results in two flaws. (1) At least two chaotic state variables are required for encrypting one plain pixel, in permutation and diffusion stages respectively. Chaotic state variables produced with high computation complexity are not sufficiently used. (2) The key stream solely depends on the secret key, and hence the cryptosystem is vulnerable against known/chosen-plaintext attacks. In this paper, a fast chaos-based image encryption scheme with a dynamic state variables selection mechanism is proposed to enhance the security and promote the efficiency of chaos-based image cryptosystems. Experimental simulations and extensive cryptanalysis have been carried out and the results prove the superior security and high efficiency of the scheme.

Time-frequency dynamics of resting-state brain connectivity measured with fMRI.

PubMed

Chang, Catie; Glover, Gary H

2010-03-01

Most studies of resting-state functional connectivity using fMRI employ methods that assume temporal stationarity, such as correlation and data-driven decompositions computed across the duration of the scan. However, evidence from both task-based fMRI studies and animal electrophysiology suggests that functional connectivity may exhibit dynamic changes within time scales of seconds to minutes. In the present study, we investigated the dynamic behavior of resting-state connectivity across the course of a single scan, performing a time-frequency coherence analysis based on the wavelet transform. We focused on the connectivity of the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), a primary node of the default-mode network, examining its relationship with both the "anticorrelated" ("task-positive") network as well as other nodes of the default-mode network. It was observed that coherence and phase between the PCC and the anticorrelated network was variable in time and frequency, and statistical testing based on Monte Carlo simulations revealed the presence of significant scale-dependent temporal variability. In addition, a sliding-window correlation procedure identified other regions across the brain that exhibited variable connectivity with the PCC across the scan, which included areas previously implicated in attention and salience processing. Although it is unclear whether the observed coherence and phase variability can be attributed to residual noise or modulation of cognitive state, the present results illustrate that resting-state functional connectivity is not static, and it may therefore prove valuable to consider measures of variability, in addition to average quantities, when characterizing resting-state networks. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Beyond IQ: A Latent State-Trait Analysis of General Intelligence, Dynamic Decision Making, and Implicit Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Danner, Daniel; Hagemann, Dirk; Schankin, Andrea; Hager, Marieke; Funke, Joachim

2011-01-01

The present study investigated cognitive performance measures beyond IQ. In particular, we investigated the psychometric properties of dynamic decision making variables and implicit learning variables and their relation with general intelligence and professional success. N = 173 employees from different companies and occupational groups completed…

Spike-Threshold Variability Originated from Separatrix-Crossing in Neuronal Dynamics

PubMed Central

Wang, Longfei; Wang, Hengtong; Yu, Lianchun; Chen, Yong

2016-01-01

The threshold voltage for action potential generation is a key regulator of neuronal signal processing, yet the mechanism of its dynamic variation is still not well described. In this paper, we propose that threshold phenomena can be classified as parameter thresholds and state thresholds. Voltage thresholds which belong to the state threshold are determined by the ‘general separatrix’ in state space. We demonstrate that the separatrix generally exists in the state space of neuron models. The general form of separatrix was assumed as the function of both states and stimuli and the previously assumed threshold evolving equation versus time is naturally deduced from the separatrix. In terms of neuronal dynamics, the threshold voltage variation, which is affected by different stimuli, is determined by crossing the separatrix at different points in state space. We suggest that the separatrix-crossing mechanism in state space is the intrinsic dynamic mechanism for threshold voltages and post-stimulus threshold phenomena. These proposals are also systematically verified in example models, three of which have analytic separatrices and one is the classic Hodgkin-Huxley model. The separatrix-crossing framework provides an overview of the neuronal threshold and will facilitate understanding of the nature of threshold variability. PMID:27546614

Spike-Threshold Variability Originated from Separatrix-Crossing in Neuronal Dynamics.

PubMed

Wang, Longfei; Wang, Hengtong; Yu, Lianchun; Chen, Yong

2016-08-22

The threshold voltage for action potential generation is a key regulator of neuronal signal processing, yet the mechanism of its dynamic variation is still not well described. In this paper, we propose that threshold phenomena can be classified as parameter thresholds and state thresholds. Voltage thresholds which belong to the state threshold are determined by the 'general separatrix' in state space. We demonstrate that the separatrix generally exists in the state space of neuron models. The general form of separatrix was assumed as the function of both states and stimuli and the previously assumed threshold evolving equation versus time is naturally deduced from the separatrix. In terms of neuronal dynamics, the threshold voltage variation, which is affected by different stimuli, is determined by crossing the separatrix at different points in state space. We suggest that the separatrix-crossing mechanism in state space is the intrinsic dynamic mechanism for threshold voltages and post-stimulus threshold phenomena. These proposals are also systematically verified in example models, three of which have analytic separatrices and one is the classic Hodgkin-Huxley model. The separatrix-crossing framework provides an overview of the neuronal threshold and will facilitate understanding of the nature of threshold variability.

Dynamic Resting-State Functional Connectivity in Major Depression.

PubMed

Kaiser, Roselinde H; Whitfield-Gabrieli, Susan; Dillon, Daniel G; Goer, Franziska; Beltzer, Miranda; Minkel, Jared; Smoski, Moria; Dichter, Gabriel; Pizzagalli, Diego A

2016-06-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is characterized by abnormal resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC), especially in medial prefrontal cortical (MPFC) regions of the default network. However, prior research in MDD has not examined dynamic changes in functional connectivity as networks form, interact, and dissolve over time. We compared unmedicated individuals with MDD (n=100) to control participants (n=109) on dynamic RSFC (operationalized as SD in RSFC over a series of sliding windows) of an MPFC seed region during a resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging scan. Among participants with MDD, we also investigated the relationship between symptom severity and RSFC. Secondary analyses probed the association between dynamic RSFC and rumination. Results showed that individuals with MDD were characterized by decreased dynamic (less variable) RSFC between MPFC and regions of parahippocampal gyrus within the default network, a pattern related to sustained positive connectivity between these regions across sliding windows. In contrast, the MDD group exhibited increased dynamic (more variable) RSFC between MPFC and regions of insula, and higher severity of depression was related to increased dynamic RSFC between MPFC and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. These patterns of highly variable RSFC were related to greater frequency of strong positive and negative correlations in activity across sliding windows. Secondary analyses indicated that increased dynamic RSFC between MPFC and insula was related to higher levels of recent rumination. These findings provide initial evidence that depression, and ruminative thinking in depression, are related to abnormal patterns of fluctuating communication among brain systems involved in regulating attention and self-referential thinking.

Generalized Scaling and the Master Variable for Brownian Magnetic Nanoparticle Dynamics

PubMed Central

Reeves, Daniel B.; Shi, Yipeng; Weaver, John B.

2016-01-01

Understanding the dynamics of magnetic particles can help to advance several biomedical nanotechnologies. Previously, scaling relationships have been used in magnetic spectroscopy of nanoparticle Brownian motion (MSB) to measure biologically relevant properties (e.g., temperature, viscosity, bound state) surrounding nanoparticles in vivo. Those scaling relationships can be generalized with the introduction of a master variable found from non-dimensionalizing the dynamical Langevin equation. The variable encapsulates the dynamical variables of the surroundings and additionally includes the particles’ size distribution and moment and the applied field’s amplitude and frequency. From an applied perspective, the master variable allows tuning to an optimal MSB biosensing sensitivity range by manipulating both frequency and field amplitude. Calculation of magnetization harmonics in an oscillating applied field is also possible with an approximate closed-form solution in terms of the master variable and a single free parameter. PMID:26959493

Palaeoclimate dynamics : a voyage through scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crucifix, Michel; Mitsui, Takahito

2015-04-01

Our knowledge of climate dynamics depends on indirect observations of past climate evolution, as well as on what can be inferred from theoretical arguments. At the scale of the Cenozoic, it is common to define a framework of nested time scales, the longest time scale of interest being related to the slow tectonic evolution, then variability associated with or controlled by the astronomical forcing, and finally the fastest dynamics associated with the natural modes of variability of the ocean and the atmosphere. For example, in a model, the astronomical modes of variability may be simulated with deterministic equations under fixed boundary conditions representing the tectonic state, and associated with stochastic parameterisations of the ocean-atmosphere (chaotic) modes of motion. Bifurcations or, more generally, qualitative changes in climate dynamics may be scanned by changing slowly the tectonic state, in order to provide explanations to observed changes in regimes such as the appearance of ice ages and their changes in length or amplitude. The above framework, largely theorized by B. Saltzman, may still be partly justified but is in need of a review. We address here specifically three questions: To what extent astronomical variability interacts with natural modes of ocean - atmosphere variability ? Specifically, how does millennial variability (e.g.: Dansgaard-Oeschger events) fit the Saltzman scheme ? The astronomical forcing is quasi-periodic, and we recently showed that it may produce somewhat counter-intuitive dynamics associated with the emergence of strange non-chaotic attractors. What are the consequences on the spectrum of climate variability ? What are the effects of centennial climate variability on the slow variability of climate ? These three questions are addressed by reference to recently published material, with the objective of emphasising research questions to be explored in the near future.

A Two-Timescale Discretization Scheme for Collocation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Desai, Prasun; Conway, Bruce A.

2004-01-01

The development of a two-timescale discretization scheme for collocation is presented. This scheme allows a larger discretization to be utilized for smoothly varying state variables and a second finer discretization to be utilized for state variables having higher frequency dynamics. As such. the discretization scheme can be tailored to the dynamics of the particular state variables. In so doing. the size of the overall Nonlinear Programming (NLP) problem can be reduced significantly. Two two-timescale discretization architecture schemes are described. Comparison of results between the two-timescale method and conventional collocation show very good agreement. Differences of less than 0.5 percent are observed. Consequently. a significant reduction (by two-thirds) in the number of NLP parameters and iterations required for convergence can be achieved without sacrificing solution accuracy.

Optimal control on hybrid ode systems with application to a tick disease model.

PubMed

Ding, Wandi

2007-10-01

We are considering an optimal control problem for a type of hybrid system involving ordinary differential equations and a discrete time feature. One state variable has dynamics in only one season of the year and has a jump condition to obtain the initial condition for that corresponding season in the next year. The other state variable has continuous dynamics. Given a general objective functional, existence, necessary conditions and uniqueness for an optimal control are established. We apply our approach to a tick-transmitted disease model with age structure in which the tick dynamics changes seasonally while hosts have continuous dynamics. The goal is to maximize disease-free ticks and minimize infected ticks through an optimal control strategy of treatment with acaricide. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the results.

Deriving the exact nonadiabatic quantum propagator in the mapping variable representation.

PubMed

Hele, Timothy J H; Ananth, Nandini

2016-12-22

We derive an exact quantum propagator for nonadiabatic dynamics in multi-state systems using the mapping variable representation, where classical-like Cartesian variables are used to represent both continuous nuclear degrees of freedom and discrete electronic states. The resulting Liouvillian is a Moyal series that, when suitably approximated, can allow for the use of classical dynamics to efficiently model large systems. We demonstrate that different truncations of the exact Liouvillian lead to existing approximate semiclassical and mixed quantum-classical methods and we derive an associated error term for each method. Furthermore, by combining the imaginary-time path-integral representation of the Boltzmann operator with the exact Liouvillian, we obtain an analytic expression for thermal quantum real-time correlation functions. These results provide a rigorous theoretical foundation for the development of accurate and efficient classical-like dynamics to compute observables such as electron transfer reaction rates in complex quantized systems.

Noise enhanced stability of a metastable state containing coupled Brownian particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, R. K.

2017-05-01

Dynamics of coupled Brownian particles with color correlated additive Gaussian colored noises in a metastable state is analyzed to study the phenomenon of noise enhanced stability. The lifetime of such a metastable state is found to depend on the noise correlations and initial conditions. Dynamics of the slow variable is analyzed using the method of adiabatic elimination in the weak color limit.

Application of Spaceborne Scatterometer for Mapping Freeze-Thaw State in Northern Landscapes as a Measure of Ecological and Hydrological Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDonald, Kyle; Kimball, John; Zimmermann, Reiner; Way, JoBea; Frolking, Steve; Running, Steve

1994-01-01

Landscape freeze/thaw transitions coincide with marked shifts in albedo, surface energy and mass exchange, and associated snow dynamics. monitoring landscape freeze/thaw dynamics would improve our ability to quantify the interannual variability of boreal hydrology and river runoff/flood dynamics, The annual duration of frost-free period also bounds the period of photosynthetic activity in borel and arctic regions thus affecting the carbon budget and the interannual variability fo regional carbon fluxes.

Neighbouring populations, opposite dynamics: influence of body size and environmental variation on the demography of stream-resident brown trout (Salmo trutta).

PubMed

Fernández-Chacón, Albert; Genovart, Meritxell; Álvarez, David; Cano, José M; Ojanguren, Alfredo F; Rodriguez-Muñoz, Rolando; Nicieza, Alfredo G

2015-06-01

In organisms such as fish, where body size is considered an important state variable for the study of their population dynamics, size-specific growth and survival rates can be influenced by local variation in both biotic and abiotic factors, but few studies have evaluated the complex relationships between environmental variability and size-dependent processes. We analysed a 6-year capture-recapture dataset of brown trout (Salmo trutta) collected at 3 neighbouring but heterogeneous mountain streams in northern Spain with the aim of investigating the factors shaping the dynamics of local populations. The influence of body size and water temperature on survival and individual growth was assessed under a multi-state modelling framework, an extension of classical capture-recapture models that considers the state (i.e. body size) of the individual in each capture occasion and allows us to obtain state-specific demographic rates and link them to continuous environmental variables. Individual survival and growth patterns varied over space and time, and evidence of size-dependent survival was found in all but the smallest stream. At this stream, the probability of reaching larger sizes was lower compared to the other wider and deeper streams. Water temperature variables performed better in the modelling of the highest-altitude population, explaining over a 99 % of the variability in maturation transitions and survival of large fish. The relationships between body size, temperature and fitness components found in this study highlight the utility of multi-state approaches to investigate small-scale demographic processes in heterogeneous environments, and to provide reliable ecological knowledge for management purposes.

A High-Order, Adaptive, Discontinuous Galerkin Finite Element Method for the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

Element Method. Wellesley- Cambridge Press, Wellesly, MA, 1988. [97] E. F. Toro . Riemann Solvers and Numerical Methods for Fluid Dynamics: A Practical...introducing additional state variables, are generally asymptotically dual consistent. Numerical results are presented to confirm the results of the analysis...dependence on the state gradient is handled by introducing additional state variables, are generally asymptotically dual consistent. Numerical results are

Modeling T-cell activation using gene expression profiling and state-space models.

PubMed

Rangel, Claudia; Angus, John; Ghahramani, Zoubin; Lioumi, Maria; Sotheran, Elizabeth; Gaiba, Alessia; Wild, David L; Falciani, Francesco

2004-06-12

We have used state-space models to reverse engineer transcriptional networks from highly replicated gene expression profiling time series data obtained from a well-established model of T-cell activation. State space models are a class of dynamic Bayesian networks that assume that the observed measurements depend on some hidden state variables that evolve according to Markovian dynamics. These hidden variables can capture effects that cannot be measured in a gene expression profiling experiment, e.g. genes that have not been included in the microarray, levels of regulatory proteins, the effects of messenger RNA and protein degradation, etc. Bootstrap confidence intervals are developed for parameters representing 'gene-gene' interactions over time. Our models represent the dynamics of T-cell activation and provide a methodology for the development of rational and experimentally testable hypotheses. Supplementary data and Matlab computer source code will be made available on the web at the URL given below. http://public.kgi.edu/~wild/LDS/index.htm

From metadynamics to dynamics.

PubMed

Tiwary, Pratyush; Parrinello, Michele

2013-12-06

Metadynamics is a commonly used and successful enhanced sampling method. By the introduction of a history dependent bias which depends on a restricted number of collective variables it can explore complex free energy surfaces characterized by several metastable states separated by large free energy barriers. Here we extend its scope by introducing a simple yet powerful method for calculating the rates of transition between different metastable states. The method does not rely on a previous knowledge of the transition states or reaction coordinates, as long as collective variables are known that can distinguish between the various stable minima in free energy space. We demonstrate that our method recovers the correct escape rates out of these stable states and also preserves the correct sequence of state-to-state transitions, with minimal extra computational effort needed over ordinary metadynamics. We apply the formalism to three different problems and in each case find excellent agreement with the results of long unbiased molecular dynamics runs.

From Metadynamics to Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwary, Pratyush; Parrinello, Michele

2013-12-01

Metadynamics is a commonly used and successful enhanced sampling method. By the introduction of a history dependent bias which depends on a restricted number of collective variables it can explore complex free energy surfaces characterized by several metastable states separated by large free energy barriers. Here we extend its scope by introducing a simple yet powerful method for calculating the rates of transition between different metastable states. The method does not rely on a previous knowledge of the transition states or reaction coordinates, as long as collective variables are known that can distinguish between the various stable minima in free energy space. We demonstrate that our method recovers the correct escape rates out of these stable states and also preserves the correct sequence of state-to-state transitions, with minimal extra computational effort needed over ordinary metadynamics. We apply the formalism to three different problems and in each case find excellent agreement with the results of long unbiased molecular dynamics runs.

Investigating the social behavioral dynamics and differentiation of skill in a martial arts technique.

PubMed

Caron, Robert R; Coey, Charles A; Dhaim, Ashley N; Schmidt, R C

2017-08-01

Coordinating interpersonal motor activity is crucial in martial arts, where managing spatiotemporal parameters is emphasized to produce effective techniques. Modeling arm movements in an Aikido technique as coupled oscillators, we investigated whether more-skilled participants would adapt to the perturbation of weighted arms in different and predictable ways compared to less-skilled participants. Thirty-four participants ranging from complete novice to veterans of more than twenty years were asked to perform an Aikido exercise with a repeated attack and response, resulting in a period of steady-state coordination, followed by a take down. We used mean relative phase and its variability to measure the steady-state dynamics of both the inter- and intrapersonal coordination. Our findings suggest that interpersonal coordination of less-skilled participants is disrupted in highly predictable ways based on oscillatory dynamics; however, more-skilled participants overcome these natural dynamics to maintain critical performance variables. Interestingly, the more-skilled participants exhibited more variability in their intrapersonal dynamics while meeting these interpersonal demands. This work lends insight to the development of skill in competitive social motor activities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Data-driven discovery of Koopman eigenfunctions using deep learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lusch, Bethany; Brunton, Steven L.; Kutz, J. Nathan

2017-11-01

Koopman operator theory transforms any autonomous non-linear dynamical system into an infinite-dimensional linear system. Since linear systems are well-understood, a mapping of non-linear dynamics to linear dynamics provides a powerful approach to understanding and controlling fluid flows. However, finding the correct change of variables remains an open challenge. We present a strategy to discover an approximate mapping using deep learning. Our neural networks find this change of variables, its inverse, and a finite-dimensional linear dynamical system defined on the new variables. Our method is completely data-driven and only requires measurements of the system, i.e. it does not require derivatives or knowledge of the governing equations. We find a minimal set of approximate Koopman eigenfunctions that are sufficient to reconstruct and advance the system to future states. We demonstrate the method on several dynamical systems.

Unified Static and Dynamic Recrystallization Model for the Minerals of Earth's Mantle Using Internal State Variable Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, H. E.; Horstemeyer, M. F.; Baumgardner, J. R.

2017-12-01

In this study, we present an internal state variable (ISV) constitutive model developed to model static and dynamic recrystallization and grain size progression in a unified manner. This method accurately captures temperature, pressure and strain rate effect on the recrystallization and grain size. Because this ISV approach treats dislocation density, volume fraction of recrystallization and grain size as internal variables, this model can simultaneously track their history during the deformation with unprecedented realism. Based on this deformation history, this method can capture realistic mechanical properties such as stress-strain behavior in the relationship of microstructure-mechanical property. Also, both the transient grain size during the deformation and the steady-state grain size of dynamic recrystallization can be predicted from the history variable of recrystallization volume fraction. Furthermore, because this model has a capability to simultaneously handle plasticity and creep behaviors (unified creep-plasticity), the mechanisms (static recovery (or diffusion creep), dynamic recovery (or dislocation creep) and hardening) related to dislocation dynamics can also be captured. To model these comprehensive mechanical behaviors, the mathematical formulation of this model includes elasticity to evaluate yield stress, work hardening in treating plasticity, creep, as well as the unified recrystallization and grain size progression. Because pressure sensitivity is especially important for the mantle minerals, we developed a yield function combining Drucker-Prager shear failure and von Mises yield surfaces to model the pressure dependent yield stress, while using pressure dependent work hardening and creep terms. Using these formulations, we calibrated against experimental data of the minerals acquired from the literature. Additionally, we also calibrated experimental data for metals to show the general applicability of our model. Understanding of realistic mantle dynamics can only be acquired once the various deformation regimes and mechanisms are comprehensively modeled. The results of this study demonstrate that this ISV model is a good modeling candidate to help reveal the realistic dynamics of the Earth's mantle.

High-amplitude fluctuations and alternative dynamical states of midges in Lake Myvatn.

PubMed

Ives, Anthony R; Einarsson, Arni; Jansen, Vincent A A; Gardarsson, Arnthor

2008-03-06

Complex dynamics are often shown by simple ecological models and have been clearly demonstrated in laboratory and natural systems. Yet many classes of theoretically possible dynamics are still poorly documented in nature. Here we study long-term time-series data of a midge, Tanytarsus gracilentus (Diptera: Chironomidae), in Lake Myvatn, Iceland. The midge undergoes density fluctuations of almost six orders of magnitude. Rather than regular cycles, however, these fluctuations have irregular periods of 4-7 years, indicating complex dynamics. We fit three consumer-resource models capable of qualitatively distinct dynamics to the data. Of these, the best-fitting model shows alternative dynamical states in the absence of environmental variability; depending on the initial midge densities, the model shows either fluctuations around a fixed point or high-amplitude cycles. This explains the observed complex population dynamics: high-amplitude but irregular fluctuations occur because stochastic variability causes the dynamics to switch between domains of attraction to the alternative states. In the model, the amplitude of fluctuations depends strongly on minute resource subsidies into the midge habitat. These resource subsidies may be sensitive to human-caused changes in the hydrology of the lake, with human impacts such as dredging leading to higher-amplitude fluctuations. Tanytarsus gracilentus is a key component of the Myvatn ecosystem, representing two-thirds of the secondary productivity of the lake and providing vital food resources to fish and to breeding bird populations. Therefore the high-amplitude, irregular fluctuations in midge densities generated by alternative dynamical states dominate much of the ecology of the lake.

State-Resolved Metal Nanoparticle Dynamics Viewed through the Combined Lenses of Ultrafast and Magneto-optical Spectroscopies.

PubMed

Zhao, Tian; Herbert, Patrick J; Zheng, Hongjun; Knappenberger, Kenneth L

2018-06-19

Electronic carrier dynamics play pivotal roles in the functional properties of nanomaterials. For colloidal metals, the mechanisms and influences of these dynamics are structure dependent. The coherent carrier dynamics of collective plasmon modes for nanoparticles (approximately 2 nm and larger) determine optical amplification factors that are important to applied spectroscopy techniques. In the nanocluster domain (sub-2 nm), carrier coupling to vibrational modes affects photoluminescence yields. The performance of photocatalytic materials featuring both nanoparticles and nanoclusters also depends on the relaxation dynamics of nonequilibrium charge carriers. The challenges for developing comprehensive descriptions of carrier dynamics spanning both domains are multifold. Plasmon coherences are short-lived, persisting for only tens of femtoseconds. Nanoclusters exhibit discrete carrier dynamics that can persist for microseconds in some cases. On this time scale, many state-dependent processes, including vibrational relaxation, charge transfer, and spin conversion, affect carrier dynamics in ways that are nonscalable but, rather, structure specific. Hence, state-resolved spectroscopy methods are needed for understanding carrier dynamics in the nanocluster domain. Based on these considerations, a detailed understanding of structure-dependent carrier dynamics across length scales requires an appropriate combination of spectroscopic methods. Plasmon mode-specific dynamics can be obtained through ultrafast correlated light and electron microscopy (UCLEM), which pairs interferometric nonlinear optical (INLO) with electron imaging methods. INLO yields nanostructure spectral resonance responses, which capture the system's homogeneous line width and coherence dynamics. State-resolved nanocluster dynamics can be obtained by pairing ultrafast with magnetic-optical spectroscopy methods. In particular, variable-temperature variable-field (VTVH) spectroscopies allow quantification of transient, excited states, providing quantification of important parameters such as spin and orbital angular momenta as well as the energy gaps that separate electronic fine structure states. Ultrafast two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy (2DES) can be used to understand how these details influence state-to-state carrier dynamics. In combination, VTVH and 2DES methods can provide chemists with detailed information regarding the structure-dependent and state-specific flow of energy through metal nanoclusters. In this Account, we highlight recent advances toward understanding structure-dependent carrier dynamics for metals spanning the sub-nanometer to tens of nanometers length scale. We demonstrate the use of UCLEM methods for arresting interband scattering effects. For sub-nanometer thiol-protected nanoclusters, we discuss the effectiveness of VTVH for distinguishing state-specific radiative recombination originating from a gold core versus organometallic protecting layers. This state specificity is refined further using femtosecond 2DES and two-color methods to isolate so-called superatom state dynamics and vibrationally mediated spin-conversion and emission processes. Finally, we discuss prospects for merging VTVH and 2DES methods into a single platform.

Quantum-Enhanced Sensing Based on Time Reversal of Nonlinear Dynamics.

PubMed

Linnemann, D; Strobel, H; Muessel, W; Schulz, J; Lewis-Swan, R J; Kheruntsyan, K V; Oberthaler, M K

2016-07-01

We experimentally demonstrate a nonlinear detection scheme exploiting time-reversal dynamics that disentangles continuous variable entangled states for feasible readout. Spin-exchange dynamics of Bose-Einstein condensates is used as the nonlinear mechanism which not only generates entangled states but can also be time reversed by controlled phase imprinting. For demonstration of a quantum-enhanced measurement we construct an active atom SU(1,1) interferometer, where entangled state preparation and nonlinear readout both consist of parametric amplification. This scheme is capable of exhausting the quantum resource by detecting solely mean atom numbers. Controlled nonlinear transformations widen the spectrum of useful entangled states for applied quantum technologies.

The influence of carrier dynamics on double-state lasing in quantum dot lasers at variable temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korenev, V. V.; Savelyev, A. V.; Zhukov, A. E.; Omelchenko, A. V.; Maximov, M. V.

2014-12-01

It is shown in analytical form that the carrier capture from the matrix as well as carrier dynamics in quantum dots plays an important role in double-state lasing phenomenon. In particular, the de-synchronization of hole and electron captures allows one to describe recently observed quenching of ground-state lasing, which takes place in quantum dot lasers operating in double-state lasing regime at high injection. From the other side, the detailed analysis of charge carrier dynamics in the single quantum dot enables one to describe the observed light-current characteristics and key temperature dependences.

Use of the quasi-geostrophic dynamical framework to reconstruct the 3-D ocean state in a high-resolution realistic simulation of North Atlantic.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fresnay, Simon; Ponte, Aurélien

2017-04-01

The quasi-geostrophic (QG) framework has been, is and will be still for years to come a cornerstone method linking observations with estimates of the ocean circulation and state. We have used here the QG framework to reconstruct dynamical variables of the 3-D ocean in a state-of-the-art high-resolution (1/60 deg, 300 vertical levels) numerical simulation of the North Atlantic (NATL60). The work was carried out in 3 boxes of the simulation: Gulf Stream, Azores and Reykjaness Ridge. In a first part, general diagnostics describing the eddying dynamics have been performed and show that the QG scaling verifies in general, at depths distant from mixed layer and bathymetric gradients. Correlations with surface observables variables (e.g. temperature, sea level) were computed and estimates of quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (QGPV) were reconstructed by the means of regression laws. It is shown that that reconstruction of QGPV exhibits valuable skill for a restricted scale range, mainly using sea level as the variable of regression. Additional discussion is given, based on the flow balanced with QGPV. This work is part of the DIMUP project, aiming to improve our ability to operationnaly estimate the ocean state.

Dynamic Alignment Models for Neural Coding

PubMed Central

Kollmorgen, Sepp; Hahnloser, Richard H. R.

2014-01-01

Recently, there have been remarkable advances in modeling the relationships between the sensory environment, neuronal responses, and behavior. However, most models cannot encompass variable stimulus-response relationships such as varying response latencies and state or context dependence of the neural code. Here, we consider response modeling as a dynamic alignment problem and model stimulus and response jointly by a mixed pair hidden Markov model (MPH). In MPHs, multiple stimulus-response relationships (e.g., receptive fields) are represented by different states or groups of states in a Markov chain. Each stimulus-response relationship features temporal flexibility, allowing modeling of variable response latencies, including noisy ones. We derive algorithms for learning of MPH parameters and for inference of spike response probabilities. We show that some linear-nonlinear Poisson cascade (LNP) models are a special case of MPHs. We demonstrate the efficiency and usefulness of MPHs in simulations of both jittered and switching spike responses to white noise and natural stimuli. Furthermore, we apply MPHs to extracellular single and multi-unit data recorded in cortical brain areas of singing birds to showcase a novel method for estimating response lag distributions. MPHs allow simultaneous estimation of receptive fields, latency statistics, and hidden state dynamics and so can help to uncover complex stimulus response relationships that are subject to variable timing and involve diverse neural codes. PMID:24625448

European Scientific Notes. Volume 37, Number 1.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-01-31

instantoneous sea-state condition can be tions vary widely in their realism , with computed from a special data base coded some producing dynamic color pictures...between the variables of accuracy, approach channels, the alignment of practicality, realism , and expense. jetties, and the establishment of Because the...tidal current variables The system certainly seems to be valid, have been played into some of the and the smooth dynamics, realism , and simulator runs

HiMoP: A three-component architecture to create more human-acceptable social-assistive robots : Motivational architecture for assistive robots.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Lera, Francisco J; Matellán-Olivera, Vicente; Conde-González, Miguel Á; Martín-Rico, Francisco

2018-05-01

Generation of autonomous behavior for robots is a general unsolved problem. Users perceive robots as repetitive tools that do not respond to dynamic situations. This research deals with the generation of natural behaviors in assistive service robots for dynamic domestic environments, particularly, a motivational-oriented cognitive architecture to generate more natural behaviors in autonomous robots. The proposed architecture, called HiMoP, is based on three elements: a Hierarchy of needs to define robot drives; a set of Motivational variables connected to robot needs; and a Pool of finite-state machines to run robot behaviors. The first element is inspired in Alderfer's hierarchy of needs, which specifies the variables defined in the motivational component. The pool of finite-state machine implements the available robot actions, and those actions are dynamically selected taking into account the motivational variables and the external stimuli. Thus, the robot is able to exhibit different behaviors even under similar conditions. A customized version of the "Speech Recognition and Audio Detection Test," proposed by the RoboCup Federation, has been used to illustrate how the architecture works and how it dynamically adapts and activates robots behaviors taking into account internal variables and external stimuli.

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on African savannas changes with mean rainfall.

PubMed

Synodinos, Alexis D; Tietjen, Britta; Lohmann, Dirk; Jeltsch, Florian

2018-01-21

Savannas are mixed tree-grass ecosystems whose dynamics are predominantly regulated by resource competition and the temporal variability in climatic and environmental factors such as rainfall and fire. Hence, increasing inter-annual rainfall variability due to climate change could have a significant impact on savannas. To investigate this, we used an ecohydrological model of stochastic differential equations and simulated African savanna dynamics along a gradient of mean annual rainfall (520-780 mm/year) for a range of inter-annual rainfall variabilities. Our simulations produced alternative states of grassland and savanna across the mean rainfall gradient. Increasing inter-annual variability had a negative effect on the savanna state under dry conditions (520 mm/year), and a positive effect under moister conditions (580-780 mm/year). The former resulted from the net negative effect of dry and wet extremes on trees. In semi-arid conditions (520 mm/year), dry extremes caused a loss of tree cover, which could not be recovered during wet extremes because of strong resource competition and the increased frequency of fires. At high mean rainfall (780 mm/year), increased variability enhanced savanna resilience. Here, resources were no longer limiting and the slow tree dynamics buffered against variability by maintaining a stable population during 'dry' extremes, providing the basis for growth during wet extremes. Simultaneously, high rainfall years had a weak marginal benefit on grass cover due to density-regulation and grazing. Our results suggest that the effects of the slow tree and fast grass dynamics on tree-grass interactions will become a major determinant of the savanna vegetation composition with increasing rainfall variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decreased steady-state cerebral blood flow velocity and altered dynamic cerebral autoregulation during 5-h sustained 15% O2 hypoxia.

PubMed

Nishimura, Naoko; Iwasaki, Ken-ichi; Ogawa, Yojiro; Aoki, Ken

2010-05-01

Effects of hypoxia on cerebral circulation are important for occupational, high-altitude, and aviation medicine. Increased risk of fainting might be attributable to altered cerebral circulation by hypoxia. Dynamic cerebral autoregulation is reportedly impaired immediately by mild hypoxia. However, continuous exposure to hypoxia causes hyperventilation, resulting in hypocapnia. This hypocapnia is hypothesized to restore impaired dynamic cerebral autoregulation with reduced steady-state cerebral blood flow (CBF). However, no studies have examined hourly changes in alterations of dynamic cerebral autoregulation and steady-state CBF during sustained hypoxia. We therefore examined cerebral circulation during 5-h exposure to 15% O2 hypoxia and 21% O2 in 13 healthy volunteers in a sitting position. Waveforms of blood pressure and CBF velocity in the middle cerebral artery were measured using finger plethysmography and transcranial Doppler ultrasonography. Dynamic cerebral autoregulation was assessed by spectral and transfer function analysis. As expected, steady-state CBF velocity decreased significantly from 2 to 5 h of hypoxia, accompanying 2- to 3-Torr decreases in end-tidal CO2 (ETCO2). Furthermore, transfer function gain and coherence in the very-low-frequency range increased significantly at the beginning of hypoxia, indicating impaired dynamic cerebral autoregulation. However, contrary to the proposed hypothesis, indexes of dynamic cerebral autoregulation showed no significant restoration despite ETCO2 reductions, resulting in persistent higher values of very-low-frequency power of CBF velocity variability during hypoxia (214+/-40% at 5 h of hypoxia vs. control) without significant increases in blood pressure variability. These results suggest that sustained mild hypoxia reduces steady-state CBF and continuously impairs dynamic cerebral autoregulation, implying an increased risk of shortage of oxygen supply to the brain.

Nonequilibrium thermodynamic potentials for continuous-time Markov chains.

PubMed

Verley, Gatien

2016-01-01

We connect the rare fluctuations of an equilibrium (EQ) process and the typical fluctuations of a nonequilibrium (NE) stationary process. In the framework of large deviation theory, this observation allows us to introduce NE thermodynamic potentials. For continuous-time Markov chains, we identify the relevant pairs of conjugated variables and propose two NE ensembles: one with fixed dynamics and fluctuating time-averaged variables, and another with fixed time-averaged variables, but a fluctuating dynamics. Accordingly, we show that NE processes are equivalent to conditioned EQ processes ensuring that NE potentials are Legendre dual. We find a variational principle satisfied by the NE potentials that reach their maximum in the NE stationary state and whose first derivatives produce the NE equations of state and second derivatives produce the NE Maxwell relations generalizing the Onsager reciprocity relations.

Path-integral methods for analyzing the effects of fluctuations in stochastic hybrid neural networks.

PubMed

Bressloff, Paul C

2015-01-01

We consider applications of path-integral methods to the analysis of a stochastic hybrid model representing a network of synaptically coupled spiking neuronal populations. The state of each local population is described in terms of two stochastic variables, a continuous synaptic variable and a discrete activity variable. The synaptic variables evolve according to piecewise-deterministic dynamics describing, at the population level, synapses driven by spiking activity. The dynamical equations for the synaptic currents are only valid between jumps in spiking activity, and the latter are described by a jump Markov process whose transition rates depend on the synaptic variables. We assume a separation of time scales between fast spiking dynamics with time constant [Formula: see text] and slower synaptic dynamics with time constant τ. This naturally introduces a small positive parameter [Formula: see text], which can be used to develop various asymptotic expansions of the corresponding path-integral representation of the stochastic dynamics. First, we derive a variational principle for maximum-likelihood paths of escape from a metastable state (large deviations in the small noise limit [Formula: see text]). We then show how the path integral provides an efficient method for obtaining a diffusion approximation of the hybrid system for small ϵ. The resulting Langevin equation can be used to analyze the effects of fluctuations within the basin of attraction of a metastable state, that is, ignoring the effects of large deviations. We illustrate this by using the Langevin approximation to analyze the effects of intrinsic noise on pattern formation in a spatially structured hybrid network. In particular, we show how noise enlarges the parameter regime over which patterns occur, in an analogous fashion to PDEs. Finally, we carry out a [Formula: see text]-loop expansion of the path integral, and use this to derive corrections to voltage-based mean-field equations, analogous to the modified activity-based equations generated from a neural master equation.

Modularity and the spread of perturbations in complex dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolchinsky, Artemy; Gates, Alexander J.; Rocha, Luis M.

2015-12-01

We propose a method to decompose dynamical systems based on the idea that modules constrain the spread of perturbations. We find partitions of system variables that maximize "perturbation modularity," defined as the autocovariance of coarse-grained perturbed trajectories. The measure effectively separates the fast intramodular from the slow intermodular dynamics of perturbation spreading (in this respect, it is a generalization of the "Markov stability" method of network community detection). Our approach captures variation of modular organization across different system states, time scales, and in response to different kinds of perturbations: aspects of modularity which are all relevant to real-world dynamical systems. It offers a principled alternative to detecting communities in networks of statistical dependencies between system variables (e.g., "relevance networks" or "functional networks"). Using coupled logistic maps, we demonstrate that the method uncovers hierarchical modular organization planted in a system's coupling matrix. Additionally, in homogeneously coupled map lattices, it identifies the presence of self-organized modularity that depends on the initial state, dynamical parameters, and type of perturbations. Our approach offers a powerful tool for exploring the modular organization of complex dynamical systems.

Modularity and the spread of perturbations in complex dynamical systems.

PubMed

Kolchinsky, Artemy; Gates, Alexander J; Rocha, Luis M

2015-12-01

We propose a method to decompose dynamical systems based on the idea that modules constrain the spread of perturbations. We find partitions of system variables that maximize "perturbation modularity," defined as the autocovariance of coarse-grained perturbed trajectories. The measure effectively separates the fast intramodular from the slow intermodular dynamics of perturbation spreading (in this respect, it is a generalization of the "Markov stability" method of network community detection). Our approach captures variation of modular organization across different system states, time scales, and in response to different kinds of perturbations: aspects of modularity which are all relevant to real-world dynamical systems. It offers a principled alternative to detecting communities in networks of statistical dependencies between system variables (e.g., "relevance networks" or "functional networks"). Using coupled logistic maps, we demonstrate that the method uncovers hierarchical modular organization planted in a system's coupling matrix. Additionally, in homogeneously coupled map lattices, it identifies the presence of self-organized modularity that depends on the initial state, dynamical parameters, and type of perturbations. Our approach offers a powerful tool for exploring the modular organization of complex dynamical systems.

Cryptic chytridiomycosis linked to climate and genetic variation in amphibian populations of the southeastern United States

PubMed Central

Hoffman, Eric A.; Tye, Matthew R.; Hether, Tyler D.; Savage, Anna E.

2017-01-01

North American amphibians have recently been impacted by two major emerging pathogens, the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and iridoviruses in the genus Ranavirus (Rv). Environmental factors and host genetics may play important roles in disease dynamics, but few studies incorporate both of these components into their analyses. Here, we investigated the role of environmental and genetic factors in driving Bd and Rv infection prevalence and severity in a biodiversity hot spot, the southeastern United States. We used quantitative PCR to characterize Bd and Rv dynamics in natural populations of three amphibian species: Notophthalmus perstriatus, Hyla squirella and Pseudacris ornata. We combined pathogen data, genetic diversity metrics generated from neutral markers, and environmental variables into general linear models to evaluate how these factors impact infectious disease dynamics. Occurrence, prevalence and intensity of Bd and Rv varied across species and populations, but only one species, Pseudacris ornata, harbored high Bd intensities in the majority of sampled populations. Genetic diversity and climate variables both predicted Bd prevalence, whereas climatic variables alone predicted infection intensity. We conclude that Bd is more abundant in the southeastern United States than previously thought and that genetic and environmental factors are both important for predicting amphibian pathogen dynamics. Incorporating both genetic and environmental information into conservation plans for amphibians is necessary for the development of more effective management strategies to mitigate the impact of emerging infectious diseases. PMID:28448517

Climate and climate variability of the wind power resources in the Great Lakes region of the United States

Treesearch

X. Li; S. Zhong; X. Bian; W.E. Heilman

2010-01-01

The climate and climate variability of low-level winds over the Great Lakes region of the United States is examined using 30 year (1979-2008) wind records from the recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), a three-dimensional, high-spatial and temporal resolution, and dynamically consistent climate data set. The analyses focus on spatial distribution...

Adaptive neural network output feedback control for stochastic nonlinear systems with unknown dead-zone and unmodeled dynamics.

PubMed

Tong, Shaocheng; Wang, Tong; Li, Yongming; Zhang, Huaguang

2014-06-01

This paper discusses the problem of adaptive neural network output feedback control for a class of stochastic nonlinear strict-feedback systems. The concerned systems have certain characteristics, such as unknown nonlinear uncertainties, unknown dead-zones, unmodeled dynamics and without the direct measurements of state variables. In this paper, the neural networks (NNs) are employed to approximate the unknown nonlinear uncertainties, and then by representing the dead-zone as a time-varying system with a bounded disturbance. An NN state observer is designed to estimate the unmeasured states. Based on both backstepping design technique and a stochastic small-gain theorem, a robust adaptive NN output feedback control scheme is developed. It is proved that all the variables involved in the closed-loop system are input-state-practically stable in probability, and also have robustness to the unmodeled dynamics. Meanwhile, the observer errors and the output of the system can be regulated to a small neighborhood of the origin by selecting appropriate design parameters. Simulation examples are also provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Interannual variability of human plague occurrence in the Western United States explained by tropical and North Pacific Ocean climate variability.

PubMed

Ari, Tamara Ben; Gershunov, Alexander; Tristan, Rouyer; Cazelles, Bernard; Gage, Kenneth; Stenseth, Nils C

2010-09-01

Plague is a vector-borne, highly virulent zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. It persists in nature through transmission between its hosts (wild rodents) and vectors (fleas). During epizootics, the disease expands and spills over to other host species such as humans living in or close to affected areas. Here, we investigate the effect of large-scale climate variability on the dynamics of human plague in the western United States using a 56-year time series of plague reports (1950-2005). We found that El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation in combination affect the dynamics of human plague over the western United States. The underlying mechanism could involve changes in precipitation and temperatures that impact both hosts and vectors. It is suggested that snow also may play a key role, possibly through its effects on summer soil moisture, which is known to be instrumental for flea survival and development and sustained growth of vegetation for rodents.

A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Model With Fuzzy Storage States Applied to Reservoir Operation Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mousavi, Seyed Jamshid; Mahdizadeh, Kourosh; Afshar, Abbas

2004-08-01

Application of stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) models to reservoir optimization calls for state variables discretization. As an important variable discretization of reservoir storage volume has a pronounced effect on the computational efforts. The error caused by storage volume discretization is examined by considering it as a fuzzy state variable. In this approach, the point-to-point transitions between storage volumes at the beginning and end of each period are replaced by transitions between storage intervals. This is achieved by using fuzzy arithmetic operations with fuzzy numbers. In this approach, instead of aggregating single-valued crisp numbers, the membership functions of fuzzy numbers are combined. Running a simulated model with optimal release policies derived from fuzzy and non-fuzzy SDP models shows that a fuzzy SDP with a coarse discretization scheme performs as well as a classical SDP having much finer discretized space. It is believed that this advantage in the fuzzy SDP model is due to the smooth transitions between storage intervals which benefit from soft boundaries.

Output Feedback Distributed Containment Control for High-Order Nonlinear Multiagent Systems.

PubMed

Li, Yafeng; Hua, Changchun; Wu, Shuangshuang; Guan, Xinping

2017-01-31

In this paper, we study the problem of output feedback distributed containment control for a class of high-order nonlinear multiagent systems under a fixed undirected graph and a fixed directed graph, respectively. Only the output signals of the systems can be measured. The novel reduced order dynamic gain observer is constructed to estimate the unmeasured state variables of the system with the less conservative condition on nonlinear terms than traditional Lipschitz one. Via the backstepping method, output feedback distributed nonlinear controllers for the followers are designed. By means of the novel first virtual controllers, we separate the estimated state variables of different agents from each other. Consequently, the designed controllers show independence on the estimated state variables of neighbors except outputs information, and the dynamics of each agent can be greatly different, which make the design method have a wider class of applications. Finally, a numerical simulation is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Modelling Pseudocalanus elongatus stage-structured population dynamics embedded in a water column ecosystem model for the northern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moll, Andreas; Stegert, Christoph

2007-01-01

This paper outlines an approach to couple a structured zooplankton population model with state variables for eggs, nauplii, two copepodites stages and adults adapted to Pseudocalanus elongatus into the complex marine ecosystem model ECOHAM2 with 13 state variables resolving the carbon and nitrogen cycle. Different temperature and food scenarios derived from laboratory culture studies were examined to improve the process parameterisation for copepod stage dependent development processes. To study annual cycles under realistic weather and hydrographic conditions, the coupled ecosystem-zooplankton model is applied to a water column in the northern North Sea. The main ecosystem state variables were validated against observed monthly mean values. Then vertical profiles of selected state variables were compared to the physical forcing to study differences between zooplankton as one biomass state variable or partitioned into five population state variables. Simulated generation times are more affected by temperature than food conditions except during the spring phytoplankton bloom. Up to six generations within the annual cycle can be discerned in the simulation.

A new state space model for the NASA/JPL 70-meter antenna servo controls

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, R. E.

1987-01-01

A control axis referenced model of the NASA/JPL 70-m antenna structure is combined with the dynamic equations of servo components to produce a comprehansive state variable (matrix) model of the coupled system. An interactive Fortran program for generating the linear system model and computing its salient parameters is described. Results are produced in a state variable, block diagram, and in factored transfer function forms to facilitate design and analysis by classical as well as modern control methods.

Locally optimal control under unknown dynamics with learnt cost function: application to industrial robot positioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guérin, Joris; Gibaru, Olivier; Thiery, Stéphane; Nyiri, Eric

2017-01-01

Recent methods of Reinforcement Learning have enabled to solve difficult, high dimensional, robotic tasks under unknown dynamics using iterative Linear Quadratic Gaussian control theory. These algorithms are based on building a local time-varying linear model of the dynamics from data gathered through interaction with the environment. In such tasks, the cost function is often expressed directly in terms of the state and control variables so that it can be locally quadratized to run the algorithm. If the cost is expressed in terms of other variables, a model is required to compute the cost function from the variables manipulated. We propose a method to learn the cost function directly from the data, in the same way as for the dynamics. This way, the cost function can be defined in terms of any measurable quantity and thus can be chosen more appropriately for the task to be carried out. With our method, any sensor information can be used to design the cost function. We demonstrate the efficiency of this method through simulating, with the V-REP software, the learning of a Cartesian positioning task on several industrial robots with different characteristics. The robots are controlled in joint space and no model is provided a priori. Our results are compared with another model free technique, consisting in writing the cost function as a state variable.

Discovering Free Energy Basins for Macromolecular Systems via Guided Multiscale Simulation

PubMed Central

Sereda, Yuriy V.; Singharoy, Abhishek B.; Jarrold, Martin F.; Ortoleva, Peter J.

2012-01-01

An approach for the automated discovery of low free energy states of macromolecular systems is presented. The method does not involve delineating the entire free energy landscape but proceeds in a sequential free energy minimizing state discovery, i.e., it first discovers one low free energy state and then automatically seeks a distinct neighboring one. These states and the associated ensembles of atomistic configurations are characterized by coarse-grained variables capturing the large-scale structure of the system. A key facet of our approach is the identification of such coarse-grained variables. Evolution of these variables is governed by Langevin dynamics driven by thermal-average forces and mediated by diffusivities, both of which are constructed by an ensemble of short molecular dynamics runs. In the present approach, the thermal-average forces are modified to account for the entropy changes following from our knowledge of the free energy basins already discovered. Such forces guide the system away from the known free energy minima, over free energy barriers, and to a new one. The theory is demonstrated for lactoferrin, known to have multiple energy-minimizing structures. The approach is validated using experimental structures and traditional molecular dynamics. The method can be generalized to enable the interpretation of nanocharacterization data (e.g., ion mobility – mass spectrometry, atomic force microscopy, chemical labeling, and nanopore measurements). PMID:22423635

Resonance dynamics of DCO (X ˜ '2A ) simulated with the dynamically pruned discrete variable representation (DP-DVR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsson, Henrik R.; Riedel, Jens; Wei, Jie; Temps, Friedrich; Hartke, Bernd

2018-05-01

Selected resonance states of the deuterated formyl radical in the electronic ground state X ˜ '2A are computed using our recently introduced dynamically pruned discrete variable representation [H. R. Larsson, B. Hartke, and D. J. Tannor, J. Chem. Phys. 145, 204108 (2016)]. Their decay and asymptotic distributions are analyzed and, for selected resonances, compared to experimental results obtained by a combination of stimulated emission pumping and velocity-map imaging of the product D atoms. The theoretical results show good agreement with the experimental kinetic energy distributions. The intramolecular vibrational energy redistribution is analyzed and compared with previous results from an effective polyad Hamiltonian. Specifically, we analyzed the part of the wavefunction that remains in the interaction region during the decay. The results from the polyad Hamiltonian could mainly be confirmed. The C=O stretch quantum number is typically conserved, while the D—C=O bend quantum number decreases. Differences are due to strong anharmonic coupling such that all resonances have major contributions from several zero-order states. For some of the resonances, the coupling is so strong that no further zero-order states appear during the dynamics in the interaction region, even after propagating for 300 ps.

Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.

PubMed

Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

2016-08-01

Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.

Dynamic Programming for Structured Continuous Markov Decision Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dearden, Richard; Meuleau, Nicholas; Washington, Richard; Feng, Zhengzhu

2004-01-01

We describe an approach for exploiting structure in Markov Decision Processes with continuous state variables. At each step of the dynamic programming, the state space is dynamically partitioned into regions where the value function is the same throughout the region. We first describe the algorithm for piecewise constant representations. We then extend it to piecewise linear representations, using techniques from POMDPs to represent and reason about linear surfaces efficiently. We show that for complex, structured problems, our approach exploits the natural structure so that optimal solutions can be computed efficiently.

Differential flatness properties and multivariable adaptive control of ovarian system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigatos, Gerasimos

2016-12-01

The ovarian system exhibits nonlinear dynamics which is modeled by a set of coupled nonlinear differential equations. The paper proposes adaptive fuzzy control based on differential flatness theory for the complex dynamics of the ovarian system. It is proven that the dynamic model of the ovarian system, having as state variables the LH and the FSH hormones and their derivatives, is a differentially flat one. This means that all its state variables and its control inputs can be described as differential functions of the flat output. By exploiting differential flatness properties the system's dynamic model is written in the multivariable linear canonical (Brunovsky) form, for which the design of a state feedback controller becomes possible. After this transformation, the new control inputs of the system contain unknown nonlinear parts, which are identified with the use of neurofuzzy approximators. The learning procedure for these estimators is determined by the requirement the first derivative of the closed-loop's Lyapunov function to be a negative one. Moreover, Lyapunov stability analysis shows that H-infinity tracking performance is succeeded for the feedback control loop and this assures improved robustness to the aforementioned model uncertainty as well as to external perturbations. The efficiency of the proposed adaptive fuzzy control scheme is confirmed through simulation experiments.

Aircraft Turbofan Engine Health Estimation Using Constrained Kalman Filtering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Dan; Simon, Donald L.

2003-01-01

Kalman filters are often used to estimate the state variables of a dynamic system. However, in the application of Kalman filters some known signal information is often either ignored or dealt with heuristically. For instance, state variable constraints (which may be based on physical considerations) are often neglected because they do not fit easily into the structure of the Kalman filter. This paper develops an analytic method of incorporating state variable inequality constraints in the Kalman filter. The resultant filter is a combination of a standard Kalman filter and a quadratic programming problem. The incorporation of state variable constraints increases the computational effort of the filter but significantly improves its estimation accuracy. The improvement is proven theoretically and shown via simulation results obtained from application to a turbofan engine model. This model contains 16 state variables, 12 measurements, and 8 component health parameters. It is shown that the new algorithms provide improved performance in this example over unconstrained Kalman filtering.

Solvent as electron donor: Donor/acceptor electronic coupling is a dynamical variable

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Castner, E.W. Jr.; Kennedy, D.; Cave, R.J.

2000-04-06

The authors combine analysis of measurements by femtosecond optical spectroscopy, computer simulations, and the generalized Mulliken-Hush (GMH) theory in the study of electron-transfer reactions and electron donor-acceptor interactions. The study focus is on ultrafast photoinduced electron-transfer reactions from aromatic amine solvent donors to excited-state acceptors. The experimental results from femtosecond dynamical measurements fall into three categories: six coumarin acceptors reductively quenched by N,N-dimethylaniline (DMA), eight electron-donating amine solvents reductively quenching coumarin 152 (7-(dimethylamino)-4-(trifluoromethyl)-coumarin), and reductive quenching dynamics of two coumarins by DMA as a function of dilution in the nonreactive solvents toluene and chlorobenzene. Applying a combination of molecular dynamicsmore » trajectories, semiempirical quantum mechanical calculations (of the relevant adiabatic electronic states), and GMH theory to the C152/DMA photoreaction, the authors calculate the electron donor/acceptor interaction parameter H{sub DA} at various time frames, H{sub DA} is strongly modulated by both inner-sphere and outer-sphere nuclear dynamics, leading us to conclude that H{sub DA} must be considered as a dynamical variable.« less

Rare Central Pacific El Niño Events Caused by Interdecadal Tropical Pacific Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Wenxiu; Zheng, Xiaotong; Cai, Wenju

2017-04-01

The frequency of Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events displays strong decadal-variability but the associated dynamics is still not clear. The Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability (TPDV) are two dominant modes of the Pacific low-frequency variability that can modify high-frequency behaviors. Using a 500-year control integration of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model simulation, we find that the mean state, determined by the two independent modes of tropical Pacific decadal variability, strongly affects CP El Niño frequency and the associated developing processes. A positive TPDV features a shallow thermocline and cool sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) across the central-to-western tropical Pacific, and a negative IPO features cool SSTAs and strong trade winds along the equatorial Pacific. The combination of a positive TPDV and a negative IPO generates a decadal mean state, in which the climatological zonal temperature gradient is reduced, equatorward and westward current anomalies are harder to be generated over the central-to-western tropical Pacific, resulting in the lack of CP El Niño.

Instantaneous and dynamical decoherence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polonyi, Janos

2018-04-01

Two manifestations of decoherence, called instantaneous and dynamical, are investigated. The former reflects the suppression of the interference between the components of the current state while the latter reflects that within the initial state. These types of decoherence are computed in the case of the Brownian motion and the harmonic and anharmonic oscillators within the semiclassical approximation. A remarkable phenomenon, namely the opposite orientation of the time arrow of the dynamical variables compared to that of the quantum fluctuations generates a double exponential time dependence of the dynamical decoherence in the presence of a harmonic force. For the weakly anharmonic oscillator the dynamical decoherence is found to depend in a singular way on the amount of the anharmonicity.

A mapping variable ring polymer molecular dynamics study of condensed phase proton-coupled electron transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierre, Sadrach; Duke, Jessica R.; Hele, Timothy J. H.; Ananth, Nandini

2017-12-01

We investigate the mechanisms of condensed phase proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) using Mapping-Variable Ring Polymer Molecular Dynamics (MV-RPMD), a recently developed method that employs an ensemble of classical trajectories to simulate nonadiabatic excited state dynamics. Here, we construct a series of system-bath model Hamiltonians for the PCET, where four localized electron-proton states are coupled to a thermal bath via a single solvent mode, and we employ MV-RPMD to simulate state population dynamics. Specifically, for each model, we identify the dominant PCET mechanism, and by comparing against rate theory calculations, we verify that our simulations correctly distinguish between concerted PCET, where the electron and proton transfer together, and sequential PCET, where either the electron or the proton transfers first. This work represents a first application of MV-RPMD to multi-level condensed phase systems; we introduce a modified MV-RPMD expression that is derived using a symmetric rather than asymmetric Trotter discretization scheme and an initialization protocol that uses a recently derived population estimator to constrain trajectories to a dividing surface. We also demonstrate that, as expected, the PCET mechanisms predicted by our simulations are robust to an arbitrary choice of the initial dividing surface.

Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wide-ranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects.

PubMed

Verrot, Lucile; Destouni, Georgia

2015-01-01

Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.

Control of complex networks requires both structure and dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gates, Alexander J.; Rocha, Luis M.

2016-04-01

The study of network structure has uncovered signatures of the organization of complex systems. However, there is also a need to understand how to control them; for example, identifying strategies to revert a diseased cell to a healthy state, or a mature cell to a pluripotent state. Two recent methodologies suggest that the controllability of complex systems can be predicted solely from the graph of interactions between variables, without considering their dynamics: structural controllability and minimum dominating sets. We demonstrate that such structure-only methods fail to characterize controllability when dynamics are introduced. We study Boolean network ensembles of network motifs as well as three models of biochemical regulation: the segment polarity network in Drosophila melanogaster, the cell cycle of budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and the floral organ arrangement in Arabidopsis thaliana. We demonstrate that structure-only methods both undershoot and overshoot the number and which sets of critical variables best control the dynamics of these models, highlighting the importance of the actual system dynamics in determining control. Our analysis further shows that the logic of automata transition functions, namely how canalizing they are, plays an important role in the extent to which structure predicts dynamics.

Dynamic Sensorimotor Planning during Long-Term Sequence Learning: The Role of Variability, Response Chunking and Planning Errors

PubMed Central

Verstynen, Timothy; Phillips, Jeff; Braun, Emily; Workman, Brett; Schunn, Christian; Schneider, Walter

2012-01-01

Many everyday skills are learned by binding otherwise independent actions into a unified sequence of responses across days or weeks of practice. Here we looked at how the dynamics of action planning and response binding change across such long timescales. Subjects (N = 23) were trained on a bimanual version of the serial reaction time task (32-item sequence) for two weeks (10 days total). Response times and accuracy both showed improvement with time, but appeared to be learned at different rates. Changes in response speed across training were associated with dynamic changes in response time variability, with faster learners expanding their variability during the early training days and then contracting response variability late in training. Using a novel measure of response chunking, we found that individual responses became temporally correlated across trials and asymptoted to set sizes of approximately 7 bound responses at the end of the first week of training. Finally, we used a state-space model of the response planning process to look at how predictive (i.e., response anticipation) and error-corrective (i.e., post-error slowing) processes correlated with learning rates for speed, accuracy and chunking. This analysis yielded non-monotonic association patterns between the state-space model parameters and learning rates, suggesting that different parts of the response planning process are relevant at different stages of long-term learning. These findings highlight the dynamic modulation of response speed, variability, accuracy and chunking as multiple movements become bound together into a larger set of responses during sequence learning. PMID:23056630

Observing spatio-temporal dynamics of excitable media using reservoir computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmermann, Roland S.; Parlitz, Ulrich

2018-04-01

We present a dynamical observer for two dimensional partial differential equation models describing excitable media, where the required cross prediction from observed time series to not measured state variables is provided by Echo State Networks receiving input from local regions in space, only. The efficacy of this approach is demonstrated for (noisy) data from a (cubic) Barkley model and the Bueno-Orovio-Cherry-Fenton model describing chaotic electrical wave propagation in cardiac tissue.

Brain dynamics of post-task resting state are influenced by expertise: Insights from baseball players.

PubMed

Muraskin, Jordan; Dodhia, Sonam; Lieberman, Gregory; Garcia, Javier O; Verstynen, Timothy; Vettel, Jean M; Sherwin, Jason; Sajda, Paul

2016-12-01

Post-task resting state dynamics can be viewed as a task-driven state where behavioral performance is improved through endogenous, non-explicit learning. Tasks that have intrinsic value for individuals are hypothesized to produce post-task resting state dynamics that promote learning. We measured simultaneous fMRI/EEG and DTI in Division-1 collegiate baseball players and compared to a group of controls, examining differences in both functional and structural connectivity. Participants performed a surrogate baseball pitch Go/No-Go task before a resting state scan, and we compared post-task resting state connectivity using a seed-based analysis from the supplementary motor area (SMA), an area whose activity discriminated players and controls in our previous results using this task. Although both groups were equally trained on the task, the experts showed differential activity in their post-task resting state consistent with motor learning. Specifically, we found (1) differences in bilateral SMA-L Insula functional connectivity between experts and controls that may reflect group differences in motor learning, (2) differences in BOLD-alpha oscillation correlations between groups suggests variability in modulatory attention in the post-task state, and (3) group differences between BOLD-beta oscillations that may indicate cognitive processing of motor inhibition. Structural connectivity analysis identified group differences in portions of the functionally derived network, suggesting that functional differences may also partially arise from variability in the underlying white matter pathways. Generally, we find that brain dynamics in the post-task resting state differ as a function of subject expertise and potentially result from differences in both functional and structural connectivity. Hum Brain Mapp 37:4454-4471, 2016. © 2016 The Authors Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

Science.gov Websites

SEASONAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY, INCLUDING ENSO, SOIL MOISTURE, AND VARIOUS STATE-OF-THE-ART DYNAMICAL MODEL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS CENTERED ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS DUE TO VERY HIGH SOIL TRENDS, NEGATIVE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES, LAGGED ENSO REGRESSIONS, AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE ALL

A System-Oriented Approach for the Optimal Control of Process Chains under Stochastic Influences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senn, Melanie; Schäfer, Julian; Pollak, Jürgen; Link, Norbert

2011-09-01

Process chains in manufacturing consist of multiple connected processes in terms of dynamic systems. The properties of a product passing through such a process chain are influenced by the transformation of each single process. There exist various methods for the control of individual processes, such as classical state controllers from cybernetics or function mapping approaches realized by statistical learning. These controllers ensure that a desired state is obtained at process end despite of variations in the input and disturbances. The interactions between the single processes are thereby neglected, but play an important role in the optimization of the entire process chain. We divide the overall optimization into two phases: (1) the solution of the optimization problem by Dynamic Programming to find the optimal control variable values for each process for any encountered end state of its predecessor and (2) the application of the optimal control variables at runtime for the detected initial process state. The optimization problem is solved by selecting adequate control variables for each process in the chain backwards based on predefined quality requirements for the final product. For the demonstration of the proposed concept, we have chosen a process chain from sheet metal manufacturing with simplified transformation functions.

Simulated dynamic response of a multi-stage compressor with variable molecular weight flow medium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Babcock, Dale A.

1995-01-01

A mathematical model of a multi-stage compressor with variable molecular weight flow medium is derived. The modeled system consists of a five stage, six cylinder, double acting, piston type compressor. Each stage is followed by a water cooled heat exchanger which serves to transfer the heat of compression from the gas. A high molecular weight gas (CFC-12) mixed with air in varying proportions is introduced to the suction of the compressor. Condensation of the heavy gas may occur in the upper stage heat exchangers. The state equations for the system are integrated using the Advanced Continuous Simulation Language (ACSL) for determining the system's dynamic and steady state characteristics under varying operating conditions.

Perturbation analysis of 6DoF flight dynamics and passive dynamic stability of hovering fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Gao, Na; Aono, Hikaru; Liu, Hao

2011-02-07

Insects exhibit exquisite control of their flapping flight, capable of performing precise stability and steering maneuverability. Here we develop an integrated computational model to investigate flight dynamics of insect hovering based on coupling the equations of 6 degree of freedom (6DoF) motion with the Navier-Stokes (NS) equations. Unsteady aerodynamics is resolved by using a biology-inspired dynamic flight simulator that integrates models of realistic wing-body morphology and kinematics, and a NS solver. We further develop a dynamic model to solve the rigid body equations of 6DoF motion by using a 4th-order Runge-Kutta method. In this model, instantaneous forces and moments based on the NS-solutions are represented in terms of Fourier series. With this model, we perform a systematic simulation-based analysis on the passive dynamic stability of a hovering fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster, with a specific focus on responses of state variables to six one-directional perturbation conditions during latency period. Our results reveal that the flight dynamics of fruit fly hovering does not have a straightforward dynamic stability in a conventional sense that perturbations damp out in a manner of monotonous convergence. However, it is found to exist a transient interval containing an initial converging response observed for all the six perturbation variables and a terminal instability that at least one state variable subsequently tends to diverge after several wing beat cycles. Furthermore, our results illustrate that a fruit fly does have sufficient time to apply some active mediation to sustain a steady hovering before losing body attitudes. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Mathematics of Psychotherapy: A Nonlinear Model of Change Dynamics.

PubMed

Schiepek, Gunter; Aas, Benjamin; Viol, Kathrin

2016-07-01

Psychotherapy is a dynamic process produced by a complex system of interacting variables. Even though there are qualitative models of such systems the link between structure and function, between network and network dynamics is still missing. The aim of this study is to realize these links. The proposed model is composed of five state variables (P: problem severity, S: success and therapeutic progress, M: motivation to change, E: emotions, I: insight and new perspectives) interconnected by 16 functions. The shape of each function is modified by four parameters (a: capability to form a trustful working alliance, c: mentalization and emotion regulation, r: behavioral resources and skills, m: self-efficacy and reward expectation). Psychologically, the parameters play the role of competencies or traits, which translate into the concept of control parameters in synergetics. The qualitative model was transferred into five coupled, deterministic, nonlinear difference equations generating the dynamics of each variable as a function of other variables. The mathematical model is able to reproduce important features of psychotherapy processes. Examples of parameter-dependent bifurcation diagrams are given. Beyond the illustrated similarities between simulated and empirical dynamics, the model has to be further developed, systematically tested by simulated experiments, and compared to empirical data.

Variable input observer for state estimation of high-rate dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Jonathan; Cao, Liang; Laflamme, Simon; Dodson, Jacob

2017-04-01

High-rate systems operating in the 10 μs to 10 ms timescale are likely to experience damaging effects due to rapid environmental changes (e.g., turbulence, ballistic impact). Some of these systems could benefit from real-time state estimation to enable their full potential. Examples of such systems include blast mitigation strategies, automotive airbag technologies, and hypersonic vehicles. Particular challenges in high-rate state estimation include: 1) complex time varying nonlinearities of system (e.g. noise, uncertainty, and disturbance); 2) rapid environmental changes; 3) requirement of high convergence rate. Here, we propose using a Variable Input Observer (VIO) concept to vary the input space as the event unfolds. When systems experience high-rate dynamics, rapid changes in the system occur. To investigate the VIO's potential, a VIO-based neuro-observer is constructed and studied using experimental data collected from a laboratory impact test. Results demonstrate that the input space is unique to different impact conditions, and that adjusting the input space throughout the dynamic event produces better estimations than using a traditional fixed input space strategy.

Interannual Variability of Human Plague Occurrence in the Western United States Explained by Tropical and North Pacific Ocean Climate Variability

PubMed Central

Ari, Tamara Ben; Gershunov, Alexander; Tristan, Rouyer; Cazelles, Bernard; Gage, Kenneth; Stenseth, Nils C.

2010-01-01

Plague is a vector-borne, highly virulent zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. It persists in nature through transmission between its hosts (wild rodents) and vectors (fleas). During epizootics, the disease expands and spills over to other host species such as humans living in or close to affected areas. Here, we investigate the effect of large-scale climate variability on the dynamics of human plague in the western United States using a 56-year time series of plague reports (1950–2005). We found that El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation in combination affect the dynamics of human plague over the western United States. The underlying mechanism could involve changes in precipitation and temperatures that impact both hosts and vectors. It is suggested that snow also may play a key role, possibly through its effects on summer soil moisture, which is known to be instrumental for flea survival and development and sustained growth of vegetation for rodents. PMID:20810830

Supervision of dynamic systems: Monitoring, decision-making and control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, T. N.

1982-01-01

Effects of task variables on the performance of the human supervisor by means of modelling techniques are discussed. The task variables considered are: The dynamics of the system, the task to be performed, the environmental disturbances and the observation noise. A relationship between task variables and parameters of a supervisory model is assumed. The model consists of three parts: (1) The observer part is thought to be a full order optimal observer, (2) the decision-making part is stated as a set of decision rules, and (3) the controller part is given by a control law. The observer part generates, on the basis of the system output and the control actions, an estimate of the state of the system and its associated variance. The outputs of the observer part are then used by the decision-making part to determine the instants in time of the observation actions on the one hand and the controls actions on the other. The controller part makes use of the estimated state to derive the amplitude(s) of the control action(s).

Superior arm-movement decoding from cortex with a new, unsupervised-learning algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makin, Joseph G.; O'Doherty, Joseph E.; Cardoso, Mariana M. B.; Sabes, Philip N.

2018-04-01

Objective. The aim of this work is to improve the state of the art for motor-control with a brain-machine interface (BMI). BMIs use neurological recording devices and decoding algorithms to transform brain activity directly into real-time control of a machine, archetypically a robotic arm or a cursor. The standard procedure treats neural activity—vectors of spike counts in small temporal windows—as noisy observations of the kinematic state (position, velocity, acceleration) of the fingertip. Inferring the state from the observations then takes the form of a dynamical filter, typically some variant on Kalman’s (KF). The KF, however, although fairly robust in practice, is optimal only when the relationships between variables are linear and the noise is Gaussian, conditions usually violated in practice. Approach. To overcome these limitations we introduce a new filter, the ‘recurrent exponential-family harmonium’ (rEFH), that models the spike counts explicitly as Poisson-distributed, and allows for arbitrary nonlinear dynamics and observation models. Furthermore, the model underlying the filter is acquired through unsupervised learning, which allows temporal correlations in spike counts to be explained by latent dynamics that do not necessarily correspond to the kinematic state of the fingertip. Main results. We test the rEFH on offline reconstruction of the kinematics of reaches in the plane. The rEFH outperforms the standard, as well as three other state-of-the-art, decoders, across three monkeys, two different tasks, most kinematic variables, and a range of bin widths, amounts of training data, and numbers of neurons. Significance. Our algorithm establishes a new state of the art for offline decoding of reaches—in particular, for fingertip velocities, the variable used for control in most online decoders.

On Chaotic and Hyperchaotic Complex Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmoud, Gamal M.

Dynamical systems described by real and complex variables are currently one of the most popular areas of scientific research. These systems play an important role in several fields of physics, engineering, and computer sciences, for example, laser systems, control (or chaos suppression), secure communications, and information science. Dynamical basic properties, chaos (hyperchaos) synchronization, chaos control, and generating hyperchaotic behavior of these systems are briefly summarized. The main advantage of introducing complex variables is the reduction of phase space dimensions by a half. They are also used to describe and simulate the physics of detuned laser and thermal convection of liquid flows, where the electric field and the atomic polarization amplitudes are both complex. Clearly, if the variables of the system are complex the equations involve twice as many variables and control parameters, thus making it that much harder for a hostile agent to intercept and decipher the coded message. Chaotic and hyperchaotic complex systems are stated as examples. Finally there are many open problems in the study of chaotic and hyperchaotic complex nonlinear dynamical systems, which need further investigations. Some of these open problems are given.

Method and apparatus for monitoring dynamic cardiovascular function using n-dimensional representatives of critical functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Syroid, Noah (Inventor); Westinskow, Dwayne (Inventor); Agutter, James (Inventor); Albert, Robert (Inventor); Strayer, David (Inventor); Wachter, S. Blake (Inventor); Drews, Frank (Inventor)

2010-01-01

A method, system, apparatus and device for the monitoring, diagnosis and evaluation of the state of a dynamic pulmonary system is disclosed. This method and system provides the processing means for receiving sensed and/or simulated data, converting such data into a displayable object format and displaying such objects in a manner such that the interrelationships between the respective variables can be correlated and identified by a user. This invention provides for the rapid cognitive grasp of the overall state of a pulmonary critical function with respect to a dynamic system.

Control methods for aiding a pilot during STOL engine failure transients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, E. R.; Debra, D. B.

1976-01-01

Candidate autopilot control laws that control the engine failure transient sink rates by demonstrating the engineering application of modern state variable control theory were defined. The results of approximate modal analysis were compared to those derived from full state analyses provided from computer design solutions. The aircraft was described, and a state variable model of its longitudinal dynamic motion due to engine and control variations was defined. The classical fast and slow modes were assumed to be sufficiently different to define reduced order approximations of the aircraft motion amendable to hand analysis control definition methods. The original state equations of motion were also applied to a large scale state variable control design program, in particular OPTSYS. The resulting control laws were compared with respect to their relative responses, ease of application, and meeting the desired performance objectives.

Augmented Ehrenfest dynamics yields a rate for surface hopping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subotnik, Joseph E.

2010-04-01

We present a new algorithm for mixed quantum-classical dynamics that helps bridge the gap between mean-field (Ehrenfest) and surface-hopping dynamics by defining a natural rate of decoherence. In order to derive this decoherence result, we have expanded the number of independent variables in the usual Ehrenfest routine so that mixed quantum-classical derivatives are now propagated in time alongside the usual Ehrenfest variables. Having done so, we compute a unique rate of decoherence using two independent approaches: (i) by comparing the equations of motion for the joint nuclear-electronic probability density in phase space according to Ehrenfest dynamics versus partial Wigner transform dynamics and (ii) by introducing a frozen Gaussian interpretation of Ehrenfest dynamics which allows nuclear wave packets to separate. The first consequence of this work is a means to rigorously check the accuracy of standard Ehrenfest dynamics. Second, this paper suggests a nonadiabatic dynamics algorithm, whereby the nuclei are propagated on the mean-field (Ehrenfest) potential energy surface and undergo stochastic decoherence events. Our work resembles the surface-hopping algorithm of Schwartz and co-workers [J. Chem. Phys. 123, 234106 (2005)]—only now without any adjustable parameters. For the case of two electronic states, we present numerical results on the so-called "Tully problems" and emphasize that future numerical benchmarking is still needed. Future work will also treat the problem of three or more electronic states.

Constrained Kalman Filtering Via Density Function Truncation for Turbofan Engine Health Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Dan; Simon, Donald L.

2006-01-01

Kalman filters are often used to estimate the state variables of a dynamic system. However, in the application of Kalman filters some known signal information is often either ignored or dealt with heuristically. For instance, state variable constraints (which may be based on physical considerations) are often neglected because they do not fit easily into the structure of the Kalman filter. This paper develops an analytic method of incorporating state variable inequality constraints in the Kalman filter. The resultant filter truncates the PDF (probability density function) of the Kalman filter estimate at the known constraints and then computes the constrained filter estimate as the mean of the truncated PDF. The incorporation of state variable constraints increases the computational effort of the filter but significantly improves its estimation accuracy. The improvement is demonstrated via simulation results obtained from a turbofan engine model. The turbofan engine model contains 3 state variables, 11 measurements, and 10 component health parameters. It is also shown that the truncated Kalman filter may be a more accurate way of incorporating inequality constraints than other constrained filters (e.g., the projection approach to constrained filtering).

Mean Field Analysis of Stochastic Neural Network Models with Synaptic Depression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasuhiko Igarashi,; Masafumi Oizumi,; Masato Okada,

2010-08-01

We investigated the effects of synaptic depression on the macroscopic behavior of stochastic neural networks. Dynamical mean field equations were derived for such networks by taking the average of two stochastic variables: a firing-state variable and a synaptic variable. In these equations, the average product of thesevariables is decoupled as the product of their averages because the two stochastic variables are independent. We proved the independence of these two stochastic variables assuming that the synaptic weight Jij is of the order of 1/N with respect to the number of neurons N. Using these equations, we derived macroscopic steady-state equations for a network with uniform connections and for a ring attractor network with Mexican hat type connectivity and investigated the stability of the steady-state solutions. An oscillatory uniform state was observed in the network with uniform connections owing to a Hopf instability. For the ring network, high-frequency perturbations were shown not to affect system stability. Two mechanisms destabilize the inhomogeneous steady state, leading to two oscillatory states. A Turing instability leads to a rotating bump state, while a Hopf instability leads to an oscillatory bump state, which was previously unreported. Various oscillatory states take place in a network with synaptic depression depending on the strength of the interneuron connections.

Interdisciplinary Modeling and Dynamics of Archipelago Straits

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

modeling, tidal modeling and multi-dynamics nested domains and non-hydrostatic modeling WORK COMPLETED Realistic Multiscale Simulations, Real-time...six state variables (chlorophyll, nitrate , ammonium, detritus, phytoplankton, and zooplankton) were needed to initialize simulations. Using biological...parameters from literature, climatology from World Ocean Atlas data for nitrate and chlorophyll profiles extracted from satellite data, a first

Theorems and application of local activity of CNN with five state variables and one port.

PubMed

Xiong, Gang; Dong, Xisong; Xie, Li; Yang, Thomas

2012-01-01

Coupled nonlinear dynamical systems have been widely studied recently. However, the dynamical properties of these systems are difficult to deal with. The local activity of cellular neural network (CNN) has provided a powerful tool for studying the emergence of complex patterns in a homogeneous lattice, which is composed of coupled cells. In this paper, the analytical criteria for the local activity in reaction-diffusion CNN with five state variables and one port are presented, which consists of four theorems, including a serial of inequalities involving CNN parameters. These theorems can be used for calculating the bifurcation diagram to determine or analyze the emergence of complex dynamic patterns, such as chaos. As a case study, a reaction-diffusion CNN of hepatitis B Virus (HBV) mutation-selection model is analyzed and simulated, the bifurcation diagram is calculated. Using the diagram, numerical simulations of this CNN model provide reasonable explanations of complex mutant phenomena during therapy. Therefore, it is demonstrated that the local activity of CNN provides a practical tool for the complex dynamics study of some coupled nonlinear systems.

Joint Chance-Constrained Dynamic Programming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ono, Masahiro; Kuwata, Yoshiaki; Balaram, J. Bob

2012-01-01

This paper presents a novel dynamic programming algorithm with a joint chance constraint, which explicitly bounds the risk of failure in order to maintain the state within a specified feasible region. A joint chance constraint cannot be handled by existing constrained dynamic programming approaches since their application is limited to constraints in the same form as the cost function, that is, an expectation over a sum of one-stage costs. We overcome this challenge by reformulating the joint chance constraint into a constraint on an expectation over a sum of indicator functions, which can be incorporated into the cost function by dualizing the optimization problem. As a result, the primal variables can be optimized by a standard dynamic programming, while the dual variable is optimized by a root-finding algorithm that converges exponentially. Error bounds on the primal and dual objective values are rigorously derived. We demonstrate the algorithm on a path planning problem, as well as an optimal control problem for Mars entry, descent and landing. The simulations are conducted using a real terrain data of Mars, with four million discrete states at each time step.

Noise-induced transitions and shifts in a climate-vegetation feedback model.

PubMed

Alexandrov, Dmitri V; Bashkirtseva, Irina A; Ryashko, Lev B

2018-04-01

Motivated by the extremely important role of the Earth's vegetation dynamics in climate changes, we study the stochastic variability of a simple climate-vegetation system. In the case of deterministic dynamics, the system has one stable equilibrium and limit cycle or two stable equilibria corresponding to two opposite (cold and warm) climate-vegetation states. These states are divided by a separatrix going across a point of unstable equilibrium. Some possible stochastic scenarios caused by different externally induced natural and anthropogenic processes inherit properties of deterministic behaviour and drastically change the system dynamics. We demonstrate that the system transitions across its separatrix occur with increasing noise intensity. The climate-vegetation system therewith fluctuates, transits and localizes in the vicinity of its attractor. We show that this phenomenon occurs within some critical range of noise intensities. A noise-induced shift into the range of smaller global average temperatures corresponding to substantial oscillations of the Earth's vegetation cover is revealed. Our analysis demonstrates that the climate-vegetation interactions essentially contribute to climate dynamics and should be taken into account in more precise and complex models of climate variability.

Kalman Filtering with Inequality Constraints for Turbofan Engine Health Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Dan; Simon, Donald L.

2003-01-01

Kalman filters are often used to estimate the state variables of a dynamic system. However, in the application of Kalman filters some known signal information is often either ignored or dealt with heuristically. For instance, state variable constraints (which may be based on physical considerations) are often neglected because they do not fit easily into the structure of the Kalman filter. This paper develops two analytic methods of incorporating state variable inequality constraints in the Kalman filter. The first method is a general technique of using hard constraints to enforce inequalities on the state variable estimates. The resultant filter is a combination of a standard Kalman filter and a quadratic programming problem. The second method uses soft constraints to estimate state variables that are known to vary slowly with time. (Soft constraints are constraints that are required to be approximately satisfied rather than exactly satisfied.) The incorporation of state variable constraints increases the computational effort of the filter but significantly improves its estimation accuracy. The improvement is proven theoretically and shown via simulation results. The use of the algorithm is demonstrated on a linearized simulation of a turbofan engine to estimate health parameters. The turbofan engine model contains 16 state variables, 12 measurements, and 8 component health parameters. It is shown that the new algorithms provide improved performance in this example over unconstrained Kalman filtering.

Near-optimal, asymptotic tracking in control problems involving state-variable inequality constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markopoulos, N.; Calise, A. J.

1993-01-01

The class of all piecewise time-continuous controllers tracking a given hypersurface in the state space of a dynamical system can be split by the present transformation technique into two disjoint classes; while the first of these contains all controllers which track the hypersurface in finite time, the second contains all controllers that track the hypersurface asymptotically. On this basis, a reformulation is presented for optimal control problems involving state-variable inequality constraints. If the state constraint is regarded as 'soft', there may exist controllers which are asymptotic, two-sided, and able to yield the optimal value of the performance index.

Identifying early-warning signals of critical transitions with strong noise by dynamical network markers

PubMed Central

Liu, Rui; Chen, Pei; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Chen, Luonan

2015-01-01

Identifying early-warning signals of a critical transition for a complex system is difficult, especially when the target system is constantly perturbed by big noise, which makes the traditional methods fail due to the strong fluctuations of the observed data. In this work, we show that the critical transition is not traditional state-transition but probability distribution-transition when the noise is not sufficiently small, which, however, is a ubiquitous case in real systems. We present a model-free computational method to detect the warning signals before such transitions. The key idea behind is a strategy: “making big noise smaller” by a distribution-embedding scheme, which transforms the data from the observed state-variables with big noise to their distribution-variables with small noise, and thus makes the traditional criteria effective because of the significantly reduced fluctuations. Specifically, increasing the dimension of the observed data by moment expansion that changes the system from state-dynamics to probability distribution-dynamics, we derive new data in a higher-dimensional space but with much smaller noise. Then, we develop a criterion based on the dynamical network marker (DNM) to signal the impending critical transition using the transformed higher-dimensional data. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in biological, ecological and financial systems. PMID:26647650

Observability and synchronization of neuron models.

PubMed

Aguirre, Luis A; Portes, Leonardo L; Letellier, Christophe

2017-10-01

Observability is the property that enables recovering the state of a dynamical system from a reduced number of measured variables. In high-dimensional systems, it is therefore important to make sure that the variable recorded to perform the analysis conveys good observability of the system dynamics. The observability of a network of neuron models depends nontrivially on the observability of the node dynamics and on the topology of the network. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, to perform a study of observability using four well-known neuron models by computing three different observability coefficients. This not only clarifies observability properties of the models but also shows the limitations of applicability of each type of coefficients in the context of such models. Second, to study the emergence of phase synchronization in networks composed of neuron models. This is done performing multivariate singular spectrum analysis which, to the best of the authors' knowledge, has not been used in the context of networks of neuron models. It is shown that it is possible to detect phase synchronization: (i) without having to measure all the state variables, but only one (that provides greatest observability) from each node and (ii) without having to estimate the phase.

Application of Consider Covariance to the Extended Kalman Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lundberg, John B.

1996-01-01

The extended Kalman filter (EKF) is the basis for many applications of filtering theory to real-time problems where estimates of the state of a dynamical system are to be computed based upon some set of observations. The form of the EKF may vary somewhat from one application to another, but the fundamental principles are typically unchanged among these various applications. As is the case in many filtering applications, models of the dynamical system (differential equations describing the state variables) and models of the relationship between the observations and the state variables are created. These models typically employ a set of constants whose values are established my means of theory or experimental procedure. Since the estimates of the state are formed assuming that the models are perfect, any modeling errors will affect the accuracy of the computed estimates. Note that the modeling errors may be errors of commission (errors in terms included in the model) or omission (errors in terms excluded from the model). Consequently, it becomes imperative when evaluating the performance of real-time filters to evaluate the effect of modeling errors on the estimates of the state.

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth system processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry

1993-01-01

During the past eight years, we have been engaged in a NASA-supported program of research aimed at establishing the connection between satellite signatures of the earth's environmental state and the nonlinear dynamics of the global weather and climate system. Thirty-five publications and four theses have resulted from this work, which included contributions in five main areas of study: (1) cloud and latent heat processes in finite-amplitude baroclinic waves; (2) application of satellite radiation data in global weather analysis; (3) studies of planetary waves and low-frequency weather variability; (4) GCM studies of the atmospheric response to variable boundary conditions measurable from satellites; and (5) dynamics of long-term earth system changes. Significant accomplishments from the three main lines of investigation pursued during the past year are presented and include the following: (1) planetary atmospheric waves and low frequency variability; (2) GCM studies of the atmospheric response to changed boundary conditions; and (3) dynamics of long-term changes in the global earth system.

Control Augmented Structural Synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lust, Robert V.; Schmit, Lucien A.

1988-01-01

A methodology for control augmented structural synthesis is proposed for a class of structures which can be modeled as an assemblage of frame and/or truss elements. It is assumed that both the plant (structure) and the active control system dynamics can be adequately represented with a linear model. The structural sizing variables, active control system feedback gains and nonstructural lumped masses are treated simultaneously as independent design variables. Design constraints are imposed on static and dynamic displacements, static stresses, actuator forces and natural frequencies to ensure acceptable system behavior. Multiple static and dynamic loading conditions are considered. Side constraints imposed on the design variables protect against the generation of unrealizable designs. While the proposed approach is fundamentally more general, here the methodology is developed and demonstrated for the case where: (1) the dynamic loading is harmonic and thus the steady state response is of primary interest; (2) direct output feedback is used for the control system model; and (3) the actuators and sensors are collocated.

Dynamical topology and statistical properties of spatiotemporal chaos.

PubMed

Zhuang, Quntao; Gao, Xun; Ouyang, Qi; Wang, Hongli

2012-12-01

For spatiotemporal chaos described by partial differential equations, there are generally locations where the dynamical variable achieves its local extremum or where the time partial derivative of the variable vanishes instantaneously. To a large extent, the location and movement of these topologically special points determine the qualitative structure of the disordered states. We analyze numerically statistical properties of the topologically special points in one-dimensional spatiotemporal chaos. The probability distribution functions for the number of point, the lifespan, and the distance covered during their lifetime are obtained from numerical simulations. Mathematically, we establish a probabilistic model to describe the dynamics of these topologically special points. In spite of the different definitions in different spatiotemporal chaos, the dynamics of these special points can be described in a uniform approach.

Negative mood and mind wandering increase long-range temporal correlations in attention fluctuations.

PubMed

Irrmischer, Mona; van der Wal, C Natalie; Mansvelder, Huibert D; Linkenkaer-Hansen, Klaus

2018-01-01

There is growing evidence that the intermittent nature of mind wandering episodes and mood have a pronounced influence on trial-to-trial variability in performance. Nevertheless, the temporal dynamics and significance of such lapses in attention remains inadequately understood. Here, we hypothesize that the dynamics of fluctuations in sustained attention between external and internal sources of information obey so-called critical-state dynamics, characterized by trial-to-trial dependencies with long-range temporal correlations. To test this, we performed behavioral investigations measuring reaction times in a visual sustained attention task and cued introspection in probe-caught reports of mind wandering. We show that trial-to-trial variability in reaction times exhibit long-range temporal correlations in agreement with the criticality hypothesis. Interestingly, we observed the fastest responses in subjects with the weakest long-range temporal correlations and show the vital effect of mind wandering and bad mood on this response variability. The implications of these results stress the importance of future research to increase focus on behavioral variability.

Negative mood and mind wandering increase long-range temporal correlations in attention fluctuations

PubMed Central

van der Wal, C. Natalie; Mansvelder, Huibert D.; Linkenkaer-Hansen, Klaus

2018-01-01

There is growing evidence that the intermittent nature of mind wandering episodes and mood have a pronounced influence on trial-to-trial variability in performance. Nevertheless, the temporal dynamics and significance of such lapses in attention remains inadequately understood. Here, we hypothesize that the dynamics of fluctuations in sustained attention between external and internal sources of information obey so-called critical-state dynamics, characterized by trial-to-trial dependencies with long-range temporal correlations. To test this, we performed behavioral investigations measuring reaction times in a visual sustained attention task and cued introspection in probe-caught reports of mind wandering. We show that trial-to-trial variability in reaction times exhibit long-range temporal correlations in agreement with the criticality hypothesis. Interestingly, we observed the fastest responses in subjects with the weakest long-range temporal correlations and show the vital effect of mind wandering and bad mood on this response variability. The implications of these results stress the importance of future research to increase focus on behavioral variability. PMID:29746529

Sub-optimal control of fuzzy linear dynamical systems under granular differentiability concept.

PubMed

Mazandarani, Mehran; Pariz, Naser

2018-05-01

This paper deals with sub-optimal control of a fuzzy linear dynamical system. The aim is to keep the state variables of the fuzzy linear dynamical system close to zero in an optimal manner. In the fuzzy dynamical system, the fuzzy derivative is considered as the granular derivative; and all the coefficients and initial conditions can be uncertain. The criterion for assessing the optimality is regarded as a granular integral whose integrand is a quadratic function of the state variables and control inputs. Using the relative-distance-measure (RDM) fuzzy interval arithmetic and calculus of variations, the optimal control law is presented as the fuzzy state variables feedback. Since the optimal feedback gains are obtained as fuzzy functions, they need to be defuzzified. This will result in the sub-optimal control law. This paper also sheds light on the restrictions imposed by the approaches which are based on fuzzy standard interval arithmetic (FSIA), and use strongly generalized Hukuhara and generalized Hukuhara differentiability concepts for obtaining the optimal control law. The granular eigenvalues notion is also defined. Using an RLC circuit mathematical model, it is shown that, due to their unnatural behavior in the modeling phenomenon, the FSIA-based approaches may obtain some eigenvalues sets that might be different from the inherent eigenvalues set of the fuzzy dynamical system. This is, however, not the case with the approach proposed in this study. The notions of granular controllability and granular stabilizability of the fuzzy linear dynamical system are also presented in this paper. Moreover, a sub-optimal control for regulating a Boeing 747 in longitudinal direction with uncertain initial conditions and parameters is gained. In addition, an uncertain suspension system of one of the four wheels of a bus is regulated using the sub-optimal control introduced in this paper. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analogy between electromagnetic potentials and wave-like dynamic variables with connections to quantum theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chen

2018-05-01

The transitions from classical theories to quantum theories have attracted many interests. This paper demonstrates the analogy between the electromagnetic potentials and wave-like dynamic variables with their connections to quantum theory for audiences at advanced undergraduate level and above. In the first part, the counterpart relations in the classical electrodynamics (e.g. gauge transform and Lorenz condition) and classical mechanics (e.g. Legendre transform and free particle condition) are presented. These relations lead to similar governing equations of the field variables and dynamic variables. The Lorenz gauge, scalar potential and vector potential manifest a one-to-one similarity to the action, Hamiltonian and momentum, respectively. In the second part, the connections between the classical pictures of electromagnetic field and particle to quantum picture are presented. By characterising the states of electromagnetic field and particle via their (corresponding) variables, their evolution pictures manifest the same algebraic structure (isomorphic). Subsequently, pictures of the electromagnetic field and particle are compared to the quantum picture and their interconnections are given. A brief summary of the obtained results are presented at the end of the paper.

On dynamical systems approaches and methods in f ( R ) cosmology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alho, Artur; Carloni, Sante; Uggla, Claes, E-mail: aalho@math.ist.utl.pt, E-mail: sante.carloni@tecnico.ulisboa.pt, E-mail: claes.uggla@kau.se

We discuss dynamical systems approaches and methods applied to flat Robertson-Walker models in f ( R )-gravity. We argue that a complete description of the solution space of a model requires a global state space analysis that motivates globally covering state space adapted variables. This is shown explicitly by an illustrative example, f ( R ) = R + α R {sup 2}, α > 0, for which we introduce new regular dynamical systems on global compactly extended state spaces for the Jordan and Einstein frames. This example also allows us to illustrate several local and global dynamical systems techniquesmore » involving, e.g., blow ups of nilpotent fixed points, center manifold analysis, averaging, and use of monotone functions. As a result of applying dynamical systems methods to globally state space adapted dynamical systems formulations, we obtain pictures of the entire solution spaces in both the Jordan and the Einstein frames. This shows, e.g., that due to the domain of the conformal transformation between the Jordan and Einstein frames, not all the solutions in the Jordan frame are completely contained in the Einstein frame. We also make comparisons with previous dynamical systems approaches to f ( R ) cosmology and discuss their advantages and disadvantages.« less

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on food production in the Ganges basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siderius, Christian; Biemans, Hester; van Walsum, Paul; hellegers, Petra; van Ierland, Ekko; Kabat, Pavel

2014-05-01

Rainfall variability is expected to increase in the coming decades as the world warms. Especially in regions already water stressed, a higher rainfall variability will jeopardize food security. Recently, the impact of inter-annual rainfall variability has received increasing attention in regional to global analysis on water availability and food security. But the description of the dynamics behind it is still incomplete in most models. Contemporary land surface and hydrological models used for such analyses describe variability in production primarily as a function of yield, a process driven by biophysical parameters, thereby neglecting yearly variations in cropped area, a process driven largely by management decisions. Agricultural statistics for northern India show that the latter process could explain up to 40% of the observed inter-annual variation in food production in various states. We added a simple dynamic land use decision module to a land surface model (LPJmL) and analyzed to what extent this improved the estimation of variability in food production. Using this improved modelling framework we then assessed if and at which scale rainfall variability affects meeting the food self-sufficiency threshold. Early results for the Ganges Basin indicate that, while on basin level variability in crop production is still relatively low, several districts and states are highly affected (RSTD > 50%). Such insight can contribute to better recommendations on the most effective measures, at the most appropriate scale, to buffer variability in food production.

Higher-order jump conditions for conservation laws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oksuzoglu, Hakan

2018-04-01

The hyperbolic conservation laws admit discontinuous solutions where the solution variables can have finite jumps in space and time. The jump conditions for conservation laws are expressed in terms of the speed of the discontinuity and the state variables on both sides. An example from the Gas Dynamics is the Rankine-Hugoniot conditions for the shock speed. Here, we provide an expression for the acceleration of the discontinuity in terms of the state variables and their spatial derivatives on both sides. We derive a jump condition for the shock acceleration. Using this general expression, we show how to obtain explicit shock acceleration formulas for nonlinear hyperbolic conservation laws. We start with the Burgers' equation and check the derived formula with an analytical solution. We next derive formulas for the Shallow Water Equations and the Euler Equations of Gas Dynamics. We will verify our formulas for the Euler Equations using an exact solution for the spherically symmetric blast wave problem. In addition, we discuss the potential use of these formulas for the implementation of shock fitting methods.

Stabilizing detached Bridgman melt crystal growth: Proportional-integral feedback control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeckel, Andrew; Daoutidis, Prodromos; Derby, Jeffrey J.

2012-10-01

The dynamics, operability limits, and tuning of a proportional-integral feedback controller to stabilize detached vertical Bridgman crystal growth are analyzed using a capillary model of shape stability. The manipulated variable is the pressure difference between upper and lower vapor spaces, and the controlled variable is the gap width at the triple-phase line. Open and closed loop dynamics of step changes in these state variables are analyzed under both shape stable and shape unstable growth conditions. Effects of step changes in static contact angle and growth angle are also studied. Proportional and proportional-integral control can stabilize unstable growth, but only within tight operability limits imposed by the narrow range of allowed meniscus shapes. These limits are used to establish safe operating ranges of controller gain. Strong nonlinearity of the capillary model restricts the range of perturbations that can be stabilized, and under some circumstances, stabilizes a spurious operating state far from the set point. Stabilizing detachment at low growth angle proves difficult and becomes impossible at zero growth angle.

A decadal tropical Pacific condition unfavorable to central Pacific El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Wenxiu; Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Cai, Wenju

2017-08-01

The frequency of central Pacific (CP) El Niño events displays strong decadal variability but the associated dynamics are unclear. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) are two dominant modes of tropical Pacific decadal variability that can interact with high-frequency activities. Using a 500 year control integration from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model, we find that the difference in mean state between the low-frequency and high-frequency CP El Niño periods is similar to the decadal background condition concurrently contributed by a negative IPO and a positive TPDV. This decadal state features strengthened trade winds west of the International Date Line and anomalous cool sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Pacific. As such, positive zonal advection feedback is difficult to be generated over the central to western tropical Pacific during the CP El Niño developing season, resulting in the low CP El Niño frequency.

Investigating the association between social interactions and personality states dynamics

PubMed Central

Finnerty, Ailbhe N.; Staiano, Jacopo; Teso, Stefano; Passerini, Andrea; Pianesi, Fabio; Lepri, Bruno

2017-01-01

The recent personality psychology literature has coined the name of personality states to refer to states having the same behavioural, affective and cognitive content (described by adjectives) as the corresponding trait, but for a shorter duration. The variability in personality states may be the reaction to specific characteristics of situations. The aim of our study is to investigate whether specific situational factors, that is, different configurations of face-to-face interactions, are predictors of variability of personality states in a work environment. The obtained results provide evidence that within-person variability in personality is associated with variation in face-to-face interactions. Interestingly, the effects differ by type and level of the personality states: adaptation effects for Agreeableness and Emotional Stability, whereby the personality states of an individual trigger similar states in other people interacting with them and complementarity effects for Openness to Experience, whereby the personality states of an individual trigger opposite states in other people interacting with them. Overall, these findings encourage further research to characterize face-to-face and social interactions in terms of their relevance to personality states. PMID:28989732

Investigating the association between social interactions and personality states dynamics.

PubMed

Gundogdu, Didem; Finnerty, Ailbhe N; Staiano, Jacopo; Teso, Stefano; Passerini, Andrea; Pianesi, Fabio; Lepri, Bruno

2017-09-01

The recent personality psychology literature has coined the name of personality states to refer to states having the same behavioural, affective and cognitive content (described by adjectives) as the corresponding trait, but for a shorter duration. The variability in personality states may be the reaction to specific characteristics of situations. The aim of our study is to investigate whether specific situational factors, that is, different configurations of face-to-face interactions, are predictors of variability of personality states in a work environment. The obtained results provide evidence that within-person variability in personality is associated with variation in face-to-face interactions. Interestingly, the effects differ by type and level of the personality states: adaptation effects for Agreeableness and Emotional Stability, whereby the personality states of an individual trigger similar states in other people interacting with them and complementarity effects for Openness to Experience, whereby the personality states of an individual trigger opposite states in other people interacting with them. Overall, these findings encourage further research to characterize face-to-face and social interactions in terms of their relevance to personality states.

Steady-state and dynamic performance of a gas-lubricated seal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colsher, R.; Shapiro, W.

1972-01-01

Steady-state and dynamic performance of a gas-lubricated, self-acting face seal was determined using numerical methods based on a variable grid, finite-difference, time-transient procedure. Results were obtained for a gas turbine main shaft seal operating at 206.9 newton per square centimeter (300 psi) sealed air pressure and 152.4 meters per second (500 ft/sec) sliding velocity. Analysis of the seal dynamics revealed that the response of the seal nosepiece to runout of the seat face is markedly affected by secondary seal friction and by nosepiece inertia. The nosepiece response was determined for various levels of secondary seal friction and seat face runout magnitudes.

Computing the structural influence matrix for biological systems.

PubMed

Giordano, Giulia; Cuba Samaniego, Christian; Franco, Elisa; Blanchini, Franco

2016-06-01

We consider the problem of identifying structural influences of external inputs on steady-state outputs in a biological network model. We speak of a structural influence if, upon a perturbation due to a constant input, the ensuing variation of the steady-state output value has the same sign as the input (positive influence), the opposite sign (negative influence), or is zero (perfect adaptation), for any feasible choice of the model parameters. All these signs and zeros can constitute a structural influence matrix, whose (i, j) entry indicates the sign of steady-state influence of the jth system variable on the ith variable (the output caused by an external persistent input applied to the jth variable). Each entry is structurally determinate if the sign does not depend on the choice of the parameters, but is indeterminate otherwise. In principle, determining the influence matrix requires exhaustive testing of the system steady-state behaviour in the widest range of parameter values. Here we show that, in a broad class of biological networks, the influence matrix can be evaluated with an algorithm that tests the system steady-state behaviour only at a finite number of points. This algorithm also allows us to assess the structural effect of any perturbation, such as variations of relevant parameters. Our method is applied to nontrivial models of biochemical reaction networks and population dynamics drawn from the literature, providing a parameter-free insight into the system dynamics.

Viscoplasticity: A thermodynamic formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freed, A. D.; Chaboche, J. L.

1989-01-01

A thermodynamic foundation using the concept of internal state variables is given for a general theory of viscoplasticity, as it applies to initially isotropic materials. Three fundamental internal state variables are admitted. They are: a tensor valued back stress for kinematic effects, and the scalar valued drag and yield strengths for isotropic effects. All three are considered to phenomenologically evolve according to competitive processes between strain hardening, strain induced dynamic recovery, and time induced static recovery. Within this phenomenological framework, a thermodynamically admissible set of evolution equations is put forth. This theory allows each of the three fundamental internal variables to be composed as a sum of independently evolving constituents.

Synchronization of a Josephson junction array in terms of global variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlasov, Vladimir; Pikovsky, Arkady

2013-08-01

We consider an array of Josephson junctions with a common LCR load. Application of the Watanabe-Strogatz approach [Physica DPDNPDT0167-278910.1016/0167-2789(94)90196-1 74, 197 (1994)] allows us to formulate the dynamics of the array via the global variables only. For identical junctions this is a finite set of equations, analysis of which reveals the regions of bistability of the synchronous and asynchronous states. For disordered arrays with distributed parameters of the junctions, the problem is formulated as an integro-differential equation for the global variables; here stability of the asynchronous states and the properties of the transition synchrony-asynchrony are established numerically.

Embedding of multidimensional time-dependent observations.

PubMed

Barnard, J P; Aldrich, C; Gerber, M

2001-10-01

A method is proposed to reconstruct dynamic attractors by embedding of multivariate observations of dynamic nonlinear processes. The Takens embedding theory is combined with independent component analysis to transform the embedding into a vector space of linearly independent vectors (phase variables). The method is successfully tested against prediction of the unembedded state vector in two case studies of simulated chaotic processes.

Embedding of multidimensional time-dependent observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnard, Jakobus P.; Aldrich, Chris; Gerber, Marius

2001-10-01

A method is proposed to reconstruct dynamic attractors by embedding of multivariate observations of dynamic nonlinear processes. The Takens embedding theory is combined with independent component analysis to transform the embedding into a vector space of linearly independent vectors (phase variables). The method is successfully tested against prediction of the unembedded state vector in two case studies of simulated chaotic processes.

Characterising non-linear dynamics in nocturnal breathing patterns of healthy infants using recurrence quantification analysis.

PubMed

Terrill, Philip I; Wilson, Stephen J; Suresh, Sadasivam; Cooper, David M; Dakin, Carolyn

2013-05-01

Breathing dynamics vary between infant sleep states, and are likely to exhibit non-linear behaviour. This study applied the non-linear analytical tool recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to 400 breath interval periods of REM and N-REM sleep, and then using an overlapping moving window. The RQA variables were different between sleep states, with REM radius 150% greater than N-REM radius, and REM laminarity 79% greater than N-REM laminarity. RQA allowed the observation of temporal variations in non-linear breathing dynamics across a night's sleep at 30s resolution, and provides a basis for quantifying changes in complex breathing dynamics with physiology and pathology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the decomposition of a dynamical system into non-interacting subsystems.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosen, R.

1972-01-01

It is shown that, under rather general conditions, it is possible to formally decompose the dynamics of an n-dimensional dynamical system into a number of non-interacting subsystems. It is shown that these decompositions are in general not simply related to the kinds of observational procedures in terms of which the original state variables of the system are defined. Some consequences of this construction for reductionism in biology are discussed.

Development of Advanced Methods of Structural and Trajectory Analysis for Transport Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ardema, Mark D.; Windhorst, Robert; Phillips, James

1998-01-01

This paper develops a near-optimal guidance law for generating minimum fuel, time, or cost fixed-range trajectories for supersonic transport aircraft. The approach uses a choice of new state variables along with singular perturbation techniques to time-scale decouple the dynamic equations into multiple equations of single order (second order for the fast dynamics). Application of the maximum principle to each of the decoupled equations, as opposed to application to the original coupled equations, avoids the two point boundary value problem and transforms the problem from one of a functional optimization to one of multiple function optimizations. It is shown that such an approach produces well known aircraft performance results such as minimizing the Brequet factor for minimum fuel consumption and the energy climb path. Furthermore, the new state variables produce a consistent calculation of flight path angle along the trajectory, eliminating one of the deficiencies in the traditional energy state approximation. In addition, jumps in the energy climb path are smoothed out by integration of the original dynamic equations at constant load factor. Numerical results performed for a supersonic transport design show that a pushover dive followed by a pullout at nominal load factors are sufficient maneuvers to smooth the jump.

Optimization of Supersonic Transport Trajectories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ardema, Mark D.; Windhorst, Robert; Phillips, James

1998-01-01

This paper develops a near-optimal guidance law for generating minimum fuel, time, or cost fixed-range trajectories for supersonic transport aircraft. The approach uses a choice of new state variables along with singular perturbation techniques to time-scale decouple the dynamic equations into multiple equations of single order (second order for the fast dynamics). Application of the maximum principle to each of the decoupled equations, as opposed to application to the original coupled equations, avoids the two point boundary value problem and transforms the problem from one of a functional optimization to one of multiple function optimizations. It is shown that such an approach produces well known aircraft performance results such as minimizing the Brequet factor for minimum fuel consumption and the energy climb path. Furthermore, the new state variables produce a consistent calculation of flight path angle along the trajectory, eliminating one of the deficiencies in the traditional energy state approximation. In addition, jumps in the energy climb path are smoothed out by integration of the original dynamic equations at constant load factor. Numerical results performed for a supersonic transport design show that a pushover dive followed by a pullout at nominal load factors are sufficient maneuvers to smooth the jump.

A Dynamic Bayesian Network model for long-term simulation of clinical complications in type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Marini, Simone; Trifoglio, Emanuele; Barbarini, Nicola; Sambo, Francesco; Di Camillo, Barbara; Malovini, Alberto; Manfrini, Marco; Cobelli, Claudio; Bellazzi, Riccardo

2015-10-01

The increasing prevalence of diabetes and its related complications is raising the need for effective methods to predict patient evolution and for stratifying cohorts in terms of risk of developing diabetes-related complications. In this paper, we present a novel approach to the simulation of a type 1 diabetes population, based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks, which combines literature knowledge with data mining of a rich longitudinal cohort of type 1 diabetes patients, the DCCT/EDIC study. In particular, in our approach we simulate the patient health state and complications through discretized variables. Two types of models are presented, one entirely learned from the data and the other partially driven by literature derived knowledge. The whole cohort is simulated for fifteen years, and the simulation error (i.e. for each variable, the percentage of patients predicted in the wrong state) is calculated every year on independent test data. For each variable, the population predicted in the wrong state is below 10% on both models over time. Furthermore, the distributions of real vs. simulated patients greatly overlap. Thus, the proposed models are viable tools to support decision making in type 1 diabetes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Learning in Noise: Dynamic Decision-Making in a Variable Environment

PubMed Central

Gureckis, Todd M.; Love, Bradley C.

2009-01-01

In engineering systems, noise is a curse, obscuring important signals and increasing the uncertainty associated with measurement. However, the negative effects of noise and uncertainty are not universal. In this paper, we examine how people learn sequential control strategies given different sources and amounts of feedback variability. In particular, we consider people’s behavior in a task where short- and long-term rewards are placed in conflict (i.e., the best option in the short-term is worst in the long-term). Consistent with a model based on reinforcement learning principles (Gureckis & Love, in press), we find that learners differentially weight information predictive of the current task state. In particular, when cues that signal state are noisy and uncertain, we find that participants’ ability to identify an optimal strategy is strongly impaired relative to equivalent amounts of uncertainty that obscure the rewards/valuations of those states. In other situations, we find that noise and uncertainty in reward signals may paradoxically improve performance by encouraging exploration. Our results demonstrate how experimentally-manipulated task variability can be used to test predictions about the mechanisms that learners engage in dynamic decision making tasks. PMID:20161328

A viscoplastic model with application to LiF-22 percent CaF2 hypereutectic salt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freed, A. D.; Walker, K. P.

1990-01-01

A viscoplastic model for class M (metal-like behavior) materials is presented. One novel feature is its use of internal variables to change the stress exponent of creep (where n is approximately = 5) to that of natural creep (where n = 3), in accordance with experimental observations. Another feature is the introduction of a coupling in the evolution equations of the kinematic and isotropic internal variables, making thermal recovery of the kinematic variable implicit. These features enable the viscoplastic model to reduce to that of steady-state creep in closed form. In addition, the hardening parameters associated with the two internal state variables (one scalar-valued, the other tensor-valued) are considered to be functions of state, instead of being taken as constant-valued. This feature enables each internal variable to represent a much wider spectrum of internal states for the material. The model is applied to a LiF-22 percent CaF2 hypereutectic salt, which is being considered as a thermal energy storage material for space-based solar dynamic power systems.

Linear canonical transformations of coherent and squeezed states in the Wigner phase space. II - Quantitative analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, D.; Kim, Y. S.; Noz, Marilyn E.

1989-01-01

It is possible to calculate expectation values and transition probabilities from the Wigner phase-space distribution function. Based on the canonical transformation properties of the Wigner function, an algorithm is developed for calculating these quantities in quantum optics for coherent and squeezed states. It is shown that the expectation value of a dynamical variable can be written in terms of its vacuum expectation value of the canonically transformed variable. Parallel-axis theorems are established for the photon number and its variant. It is also shown that the transition probability between two squeezed states can be reduced to that of the transition from one squeezed state to vacuum.

State Anxiety and Nonlinear Dynamics of Heart Rate Variability in Students.

PubMed

Dimitriev, Dimitriy A; Saperova, Elena V; Dimitriev, Aleksey D

2016-01-01

Clinical and experimental research studies have demonstrated that the emotional experience of anxiety impairs heart rate variability (HRV) in humans. The present study investigated whether changes in state anxiety (SA) can also modulate nonlinear dynamics of heart rate. A group of 96 students volunteered to participate in the study. For each student, two 5-minute recordings of beat intervals (RR) were performed: one during a rest period and one just before a university examination, which was assumed to be a real-life stressor. Nonlinear analysis of HRV was performed. The Spielberger's State-Trait Anxiety Inventory was used to assess the level of SA. Before adjusting for heart rate, a Wilcoxon matched pairs test showed significant decreases in Poincaré plot measures, entropy, largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE), and pointwise correlation dimension (PD2), and an increase in the short-term fractal-like scaling exponent of detrended fluctuation analysis (α1) during the exam session, compared with the rest period. A Pearson analysis indicated significant negative correlations between the dynamics of SA and Poincaré plot axes ratio (SD1/SD2), and between changes in SA and changes in entropy measures. A strong negative correlation was found between the dynamics of SA and LLE. A significant positive correlation was found between the dynamics of SA and α1. The decreases in Poincaré plot measures (SD1, complex correlation measure), entropy measures, and LLE were still significant after adjusting for heart rate. Corrected α1 was increased during the exam session. As before, the dynamics of adjusted LLE was significantly correlated with the dynamics of SA. The qualitative increase in SA during academic examination was related to the decrease in the complexity and size of the Poincaré plot through a reduction of both the interbeat interval and its variation.

a System Dynamics Approach for Looking at the Human and Environmental Interactions of Community-Based Irrigation Systems in New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochoa, C. G.; Tidwell, V. C.

2012-12-01

In the arid southwestern United States community water management systems have adapted to cope with climate variability and with socio-cultural and economic changes that have occurred since the establishment of these systems more than 300 years ago. In New Mexico, the community-based irrigation systems were established by Spanish settlers and have endured climate variability in the form of low levels of precipitation and have prevailed over important socio-political changes including the transfer of territory between Spain and Mexico, and between Mexico and the United States. Because of their inherent nature of integrating land and water use with society involvement these community-based systems have multiple and complex economic, ecological, and cultural interactions. Current urban population growth and more variable climate conditions are adding pressure to the survival of these systems. We are conducting a multi-disciplinary research project that focuses on characterizing these intrinsically complex human and natural interactions in three community-based irrigation systems in northern New Mexico. We are using a system dynamics approach to integrate different hydrological, ecological, socio-cultural and economic aspects of these three irrigation systems. Coupled with intensive field data collection, we are building a system dynamics model that will enable us to simulate important linkages and interactions between environmental and human elements occurring in each of these water management systems. We will test different climate variability and population growth scenarios and the expectation is that we will be able to identify critical tipping points of these systems. Results from this model can be used to inform policy recommendations relevant to the environment and to urban and agricultural land use planning in the arid southwestern United States.

Change detection in the dynamics of an intracellular protein synthesis model using nonlinear Kalman filtering.

PubMed

Rigatos, Gerasimos G; Rigatou, Efthymia G; Djida, Jean Daniel

2015-10-01

A method for early diagnosis of parametric changes in intracellular protein synthesis models (e.g. the p53 protein - mdm2 inhibitor model) is developed with the use of a nonlinear Kalman Filtering approach (Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter) and of statistical change detection methods. The intracellular protein synthesis dynamic model is described by a set of coupled nonlinear differential equations. It is shown that such a dynamical system satisfies differential flatness properties and this allows to transform it, through a change of variables (diffeomorphism), to the so-called linear canonical form. For the linearized equivalent of the dynamical system, state estimation can be performed using the Kalman Filter recursion. Moreover, by applying an inverse transformation based on the previous diffeomorphism it becomes also possible to obtain estimates of the state variables of the initial nonlinear model. By comparing the output of the Kalman Filter (which is assumed to correspond to the undistorted dynamical model) with measurements obtained from the monitored protein synthesis system, a sequence of differences (residuals) is obtained. The statistical processing of the residuals with the use of x2 change detection tests, can provide indication within specific confidence intervals about parametric changes in the considered biological system and consequently indications about the appearance of specific diseases (e.g. malignancies).

Highway traffic estimation of improved precision using the derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigatos, Gerasimos; Siano, Pierluigi; Zervos, Nikolaos; Melkikh, Alexey

2015-12-01

The paper proves that the PDE dynamic model of the highway traffic is a differentially flat one and by applying spatial discretization its shows that the model's transformation into an equivalent linear canonical state-space form is possible. For the latter representation of the traffic's dynamics, state estimation is performed with the use of the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter. The proposed filter consists of the Kalman Filter recursion applied on the transformed state-space model of the highway traffic. Moreover, it makes use of an inverse transformation, based again on differential flatness theory which enables to obtain estimates of the state variables of the initial nonlinear PDE model. By avoiding approximate linearizations and the truncation of nonlinear terms from the PDE model of the traffic's dynamics the proposed filtering methods outperforms, in terms of accuracy, other nonlinear estimators such as the Extended Kalman Filter. The article's theoretical findings are confirmed through simulation experiments.

Deconstructing transcriptional heterogeneity in pluripotent stem cells

PubMed Central

Shalek, Alex K.; Satija, Rahul; DaleyKeyser, AJay; Li, Hu; Zhang, Jin; Pardee, Keith; Gennert, David; Trombetta, John J.; Ferrante, Thomas C.; Regev, Aviv; Daley, George Q.; Collins, James J.

2014-01-01

SUMMARY Pluripotent stem cells (PSCs) are capable of dynamic interconversion between distinct substates, but the regulatory circuits specifying these states and enabling transitions between them are not well understood. We set out to characterize transcriptional heterogeneity in PSCs by single-cell expression profiling under different chemical and genetic perturbations. Signaling factors and developmental regulators show highly variable expression, with expression states for some variable genes heritable through multiple cell divisions. Expression variability and population heterogeneity can be influenced by perturbation of signaling pathways and chromatin regulators. Strikingly, either removal of mature miRNAs or pharmacologic blockage of signaling pathways drives PSCs into a low-noise ground state characterized by a reconfigured pluripotency network, enhanced self-renewal, and a distinct chromatin state, an effect mediated by opposing miRNA families acting on the c-myc / Lin28 / let-7 axis. These data illuminate the nature of transcriptional heterogeneity in PSCs. PMID:25471879

Analysis of Binary Multivariate Longitudinal Data via 2-Dimensional Orbits: An Application to the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa

PubMed Central

Visaya, Maria Vivien; Sherwell, David; Sartorius, Benn; Cromieres, Fabien

2015-01-01

We analyse demographic longitudinal survey data of South African (SA) and Mozambican (MOZ) rural households from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa. In particular, we determine whether absolute poverty status (APS) is associated with selected household variables pertaining to socio-economic determination, namely household head age, household size, cumulative death, adults to minor ratio, and influx. For comparative purposes, households are classified according to household head nationality (SA or MOZ) and APS (rich or poor). The longitudinal data of each of the four subpopulations (SA rich, SA poor, MOZ rich, and MOZ poor) is a five-dimensional space defined by binary variables (questions), subjects, and time. We use the orbit method to represent binary multivariate longitudinal data (BMLD) of each household as a two-dimensional orbit and to visualise dynamics and behaviour of the population. At each time step, a point (x, y) from the orbit of a household corresponds to the observation of the household, where x is a binary sequence of responses and y is an ordering of variables. The ordering of variables is dynamically rearranged such that clusters and holes associated to least and frequently changing variables in the state space respectively, are exposed. Analysis of orbits reveals information of change at both individual- and population-level, change patterns in the data, capacity of states in the state space, and density of state transitions in the orbits. Analysis of household orbits of the four subpopulations show association between (i) households headed by older adults and rich households, (ii) large household size and poor households, and (iii) households with more minors than adults and poor households. Our results are compared to other methods of BMLD analysis. PMID:25919116

Association between heart rate variability and fluctuations in resting-state functional connectivity

PubMed Central

Chang, Catie; Metzger, Coraline D.; Glover, Gary H.; Duyn, Jeff H.; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Walter, Martin

2012-01-01

Functional connectivity has been observed to fluctuate across the course of a resting state scan, though the origins and functional relevance of this phenomenon remain to be shown. The present study explores the link between endogenous dynamics of functional connectivity and autonomic state in an eyes-closed resting condition. Using a sliding window analysis on resting state fMRI data from 35 young, healthy male subjects, we examined how heart rate variability (HRV) covaries with temporal changes in whole-brain functional connectivity with seed regions previously described to mediate effects of vigilance and arousal (amygdala and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex; dACC). We identified a set of regions, including brainstem, thalamus, putamen, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, that became more strongly coupled with the dACC and amygdala seeds during states of elevated HRV. Effects differed between high and low frequency components of HRV, suggesting specific contributions of parasympathetic and sympathetic tone on individual connections. Furthermore, dynamics of functional connectivity could be separated from those primarily related to BOLD signal fluctuations. The present results contribute novel information about the neural basis of transient changes of autonomic nervous system states, and suggest physiological and psychological components of the recently observed non-stationarity in resting state functional connectivity. PMID:23246859

Cobotic architecture for prosthetics.

PubMed

Faulring, Eeic L; Colgate, J Edward; Peshkin, Michael A

2006-01-01

We envision cobotic infinitely-variable transmissions (IVTs) as an enabling technology for haptics and prosthetics that will allow for increases in the dynamic range of these devices while simultaneously permitting reductions in actuator size and power requirements. Use of cobotic IVTs eliminates the need to make compromises on output flow and effort, which are inherent to choosing a fixed transmission ratio drivetrain. The result is a mechanism with enhanced dynamic range that extends continuously from a completely clutched state to a highly backdrivable state. This high dynamic range allows cobotic devices to control impedance with a high level of fidelity. In this paper, we discuss these and other motivations for using parallel cobotic transmission architecture in prosthetic devices.

Ongoing Analysis of Rocket Based Combined Cycle Engines by the Applied Fluid Dynamics Analysis Group at Marshall Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruf, Joseph; Holt, James B.; Canabal, Francisco

1999-01-01

This paper presents the status of analyses on three Rocket Based Combined Cycle configurations underway in the Applied Fluid Dynamics Analysis Group (TD64). TD64 is performing computational fluid dynamics analysis on a Penn State RBCC test rig, the proposed Draco axisymmetric RBCC engine and the Trailblazer engine. The intent of the analysis on the Penn State test rig is to benchmark the Finite Difference Navier Stokes code for ejector mode fluid dynamics. The Draco engine analysis is a trade study to determine the ejector mode performance as a function of three engine design variables. The Trailblazer analysis is to evaluate the nozzle performance in scramjet mode. Results to date of each analysis are presented.

Ongoing Analyses of Rocket Based Combined Cycle Engines by the Applied Fluid Dynamics Analysis Group at Marshall Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruf, Joseph H.; Holt, James B.; Canabal, Francisco

2001-01-01

This paper presents the status of analyses on three Rocket Based Combined Cycle (RBCC) configurations underway in the Applied Fluid Dynamics Analysis Group (TD64). TD64 is performing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis on a Penn State RBCC test rig, the proposed Draco axisymmetric RBCC engine and the Trailblazer engine. The intent of the analysis on the Penn State test rig is to benchmark the Finite Difference Navier Stokes (FDNS) code for ejector mode fluid dynamics. The Draco analysis was a trade study to determine the ejector mode performance as a function of three engine design variables. The Trailblazer analysis is to evaluate the nozzle performance in scramjet mode. Results to date of each analysis are presented.

Variational Koopman models: Slow collective variables and molecular kinetics from short off-equilibrium simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Hao; Nüske, Feliks; Paul, Fabian; Klus, Stefan; Koltai, Péter; Noé, Frank

2017-04-01

Markov state models (MSMs) and master equation models are popular approaches to approximate molecular kinetics, equilibria, metastable states, and reaction coordinates in terms of a state space discretization usually obtained by clustering. Recently, a powerful generalization of MSMs has been introduced, the variational approach conformation dynamics/molecular kinetics (VAC) and its special case the time-lagged independent component analysis (TICA), which allow us to approximate slow collective variables and molecular kinetics by linear combinations of smooth basis functions or order parameters. While it is known how to estimate MSMs from trajectories whose starting points are not sampled from an equilibrium ensemble, this has not yet been the case for TICA and the VAC. Previous estimates from short trajectories have been strongly biased and thus not variationally optimal. Here, we employ the Koopman operator theory and the ideas from dynamic mode decomposition to extend the VAC and TICA to non-equilibrium data. The main insight is that the VAC and TICA provide a coefficient matrix that we call Koopman model, as it approximates the underlying dynamical (Koopman) operator in conjunction with the basis set used. This Koopman model can be used to compute a stationary vector to reweight the data to equilibrium. From such a Koopman-reweighted sample, equilibrium expectation values and variationally optimal reversible Koopman models can be constructed even with short simulations. The Koopman model can be used to propagate densities, and its eigenvalue decomposition provides estimates of relaxation time scales and slow collective variables for dimension reduction. Koopman models are generalizations of Markov state models, TICA, and the linear VAC and allow molecular kinetics to be described without a cluster discretization.

Electrochemical state and internal variables estimation using a reduced-order physics-based model of a lithium-ion cell and an extended Kalman filter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stetzel, KD; Aldrich, LL; Trimboli, MS

2015-03-15

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the present value of electrochemical internal variables in a lithium-ion cell in real time, using readily available measurements of cell voltage, current, and temperature. The variables that can be estimated include any desired set of reaction flux and solid and electrolyte potentials and concentrations at any set of one-dimensional spatial locations, in addition to more standard quantities such as state of charge. The method uses an extended Kalman filter along with a one-dimensional physics-based reduced-order model of cell dynamics. Simulations show excellent and robust predictions having dependable error bounds for most internal variables.more » (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.« less

Understanding Epileptiform After-Discharges as Rhythmic Oscillatory Transients.

PubMed

Baier, Gerold; Taylor, Peter N; Wang, Yujiang

2017-01-01

Electro-cortical activity in patients with epilepsy may show abnormal rhythmic transients in response to stimulation. Even when using the same stimulation parameters in the same patient, wide variability in the duration of transient response has been reported. These transients have long been considered important for the mapping of the excitability levels in the epileptic brain but their dynamic mechanism is still not well understood. To investigate the occurrence of abnormal transients dynamically, we use a thalamo-cortical neural population model of epileptic spike-wave activity and study the interaction between slow and fast subsystems. In a reduced version of the thalamo-cortical model, slow wave oscillations arise from a fold of cycles (FoC) bifurcation. This marks the onset of a region of bistability between a high amplitude oscillatory rhythm and the background state. In vicinity of the bistability in parameter space, the model has excitable dynamics, showing prolonged rhythmic transients in response to suprathreshold pulse stimulation. We analyse the state space geometry of the bistable and excitable states, and find that the rhythmic transient arises when the impending FoC bifurcation deforms the state space and creates an area of locally reduced attraction to the fixed point. This area essentially allows trajectories to dwell there before escaping to the stable steady state, thus creating rhythmic transients. In the full thalamo-cortical model, we find a similar FoC bifurcation structure. Based on the analysis, we propose an explanation of why stimulation induced epileptiform activity may vary between trials, and predict how the variability could be related to ongoing oscillatory background activity. We compare our dynamic mechanism with other mechanisms (such as a slow parameter change) to generate excitable transients, and we discuss the proposed excitability mechanism in the context of stimulation responses in the epileptic cortex.

Fragile and Enduring Positive Affect: Implications for Adaptive Aging.

PubMed

Ong, Anthony D; Ram, Nilam

2017-01-01

There is robust evidence linking interindividual differences in positive affect (PA) with adaptive psychological and physical health outcomes. However, recent research has suggested that intraindividual variability or fluctuations in PA states over time may also be an important predictor of individual health outcomes. Here, we report on research that focuses on PA level and various forms of PA dynamics (variability, instability, inertia, and reactivity) in relation to health. PA level refers to the average level of positive feelings. In contrast, PA dynamics refer to short-term changes in PA that unfold over time. We discuss how consideration of both PA level and PA dynamics can provide a framework for reconciling when high PA is conducive or detrimental to health. We conclude that more work on PA dynamics is needed, especially in combination with PA level, and suggest productive questions for future inquiry in this area. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Short desynchronization episodes prevail in synchronous dynamics of human brain rhythms.

PubMed

Ahn, Sungwoo; Rubchinsky, Leonid L

2013-03-01

Neural synchronization is believed to be critical for many brain functions. It frequently exhibits temporal variability, but it is not known if this variability has a specific temporal patterning. This study explores these synchronization/desynchronization patterns. We employ recently developed techniques to analyze the fine temporal structure of phase-locking to study the temporal patterning of synchrony of the human brain rhythms. We study neural oscillations recorded by electroencephalograms in α and β frequency bands in healthy human subjects at rest and during the execution of a task. While the phase-locking strength depends on many factors, dynamics of synchrony has a very specific temporal pattern: synchronous states are interrupted by frequent, but short desynchronization episodes. The probability for a desynchronization episode to occur decreased with its duration. The transition matrix between synchronized and desynchronized states has eigenvalues close to 0 and 1 where eigenvalue 1 has multiplicity 1, and therefore if the stationary distribution between these states is perturbed, the system converges back to the stationary distribution very fast. The qualitative similarity of this patterning across different subjects, brain states and electrode locations suggests that this may be a general type of dynamics for the brain. Earlier studies indicate that not all oscillatory networks have this kind of patterning of synchronization/desynchronization dynamics. Thus, the observed prevalence of short (but potentially frequent) desynchronization events (length of one cycle of oscillations) may have important functional implications for the brain. Numerous short desynchronizations (as opposed to infrequent, but long desynchronizations) may allow for a quick and efficient formation and break-up of functionally significant neuronal assemblies.

Short desynchronization episodes prevail in synchronous dynamics of human brain rhythms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Sungwoo; Rubchinsky, Leonid L.

2013-03-01

Neural synchronization is believed to be critical for many brain functions. It frequently exhibits temporal variability, but it is not known if this variability has a specific temporal patterning. This study explores these synchronization/desynchronization patterns. We employ recently developed techniques to analyze the fine temporal structure of phase-locking to study the temporal patterning of synchrony of the human brain rhythms. We study neural oscillations recorded by electroencephalograms in α and β frequency bands in healthy human subjects at rest and during the execution of a task. While the phase-locking strength depends on many factors, dynamics of synchrony has a very specific temporal pattern: synchronous states are interrupted by frequent, but short desynchronization episodes. The probability for a desynchronization episode to occur decreased with its duration. The transition matrix between synchronized and desynchronized states has eigenvalues close to 0 and 1 where eigenvalue 1 has multiplicity 1, and therefore if the stationary distribution between these states is perturbed, the system converges back to the stationary distribution very fast. The qualitative similarity of this patterning across different subjects, brain states and electrode locations suggests that this may be a general type of dynamics for the brain. Earlier studies indicate that not all oscillatory networks have this kind of patterning of synchronization/desynchronization dynamics. Thus, the observed prevalence of short (but potentially frequent) desynchronization events (length of one cycle of oscillations) may have important functional implications for the brain. Numerous short desynchronizations (as opposed to infrequent, but long desynchronizations) may allow for a quick and efficient formation and break-up of functionally significant neuronal assemblies.

Growing season variability in carbon dioxide exchange of irrigated and rainfed soybean in the southern United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Measurement of carbon dynamics of soybean (Glycine max L.) ecosystems outside Corn Belt of the United States (U.S.) is lacking. This study reports carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes from a rainfed soybean field in El Reno, Oklahoma and an irrigated soybean field in Stoneville, Mississippi during the 2016 g...

A burning problem: social dynamics of disaster risk reduction through wildfire mitigation

Treesearch

Susan Charnley; Melissa R. Poe; Alan A. Ager; Thomas A. Spies; Emily K. Platt; Keith A. Olsen

2015-01-01

Disasters result from hazards affecting vulnerable people. Most disasters research by anthropologists focuses on vulnerability; this article focuses on natural hazards. We use the case of wildfire mitigation on United States Forest Service lands in the northwestern United States to examine social, political, and economic variables at multiple scales that influence fire...

Projections of limiting states for load-bearing structures of reflectors made of polymer composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doronin, S. V.

2017-12-01

This paper deals with limiting states typical for reflector antennas for terrestrial satellite communication systems. Reflectors made of polymer composites are studied. These limiting states are projected by results of the numerical analysis of the stress and strain states. The analysis is executed for reflectors under conditions of static and dynamic loading. It takes into account both overshoot of the state variables of allowed level and the processes of long-term structural material degradation.

Which System Variables Carry Robust Early Signs of Upcoming Phase Transition? An Ecological Example.

PubMed

Negahbani, Ehsan; Steyn-Ross, D Alistair; Steyn-Ross, Moira L; Aguirre, Luis A

2016-01-01

Growth of critical fluctuations prior to catastrophic state transition is generally regarded as a universal phenomenon, providing a valuable early warning signal in dynamical systems. Using an ecological fisheries model of three populations (juvenile prey J, adult prey A and predator P), a recent study has reported silent early warning signals obtained from P and A populations prior to saddle-node (SN) bifurcation, and thus concluded that early warning signals are not universal. By performing a full eigenvalue analysis of the same system we demonstrate that while J and P populations undergo SN bifurcation, A does not jump to a new state, so it is not expected to carry early warning signs. In contrast with the previous study, we capture a significant increase in the noise-induced fluctuations in the P population, but only on close approach to the bifurcation point; it is not clear why the P variance initially shows a decaying trend. Here we resolve this puzzle using observability measures from control theory. By computing the observability coefficient for the system from the recordings of each population considered one at a time, we are able to quantify their ability to describe changing internal dynamics. We demonstrate that precursor fluctuations are best observed using only the J variable, and also P variable if close to transition. Using observability analysis we are able to describe why a poorly observable variable (P) has poor forecasting capabilities although a full eigenvalue analysis shows that this variable undergoes a bifurcation. We conclude that observability analysis provides complementary information to identify the variables carrying early-warning signs about impending state transition.

Dynamical effects on the core-mantle boundary from depth-dependent thermodynamical properties of the lower mantle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Shuxia; Yuen, David A.

1988-01-01

A common assumption in modeling dynamical processes in the lower mantle is that both the thermal expansivity and thermal conductivity are reasonably constant. Recent work from seismic equation of state leads to substantially higher values for the thermal conductivity and much lower thermal expansivity values in the deep mantle. The dynamical consequences of incorporating depth-dependent thermodynamic properties on the thermal-mechanical state of the lower mantle are examined with the spherical-shell mean-field equations. It is found that the thermal structure of the seismically resolved anomalous zone at the base of the mantle is strongly influenced by these variable properties and, in particular, that the convective distortion of the core-mantle boundary (CMB) is reduced with the decreasing thermal expansivity. Such a reduction of the dynamically induced topography from pure thermal convection would suggest that some other dynamical mechanism must be operating at the CMB.

Incorporation of a Variable Discharge Coefficient for the Primary Orifice into the Benet Labs Recoil Analysis Model via Results from Quasi-Steady State Simulations Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

Appendix 82 MatLab© Cd Calculator Routine FORTRAN© Subroutine of the Variable Cd Model ii ABBREVIATIONS & ACRONYMS Cd...Figure 29. Overview Flowchart of Benét Labs Recoil Analysis Code Figure 30. Overview Flowchart of Recoil Brake Subroutine Figure 31...Detail Flowchart of Recoil Pressure/Force Calculations Figure 32. Detail Flowchart of Variable Cd Subroutine Figure 33. Simulated Brake

A Generalized 2D-Dynamical Mean-Field Ising Model with a Rich Set of Bifurcations (Inspired and Applied to Financial Crises)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smug, Damian; Sornette, Didier; Ashwin, Peter

We analyze an extended version of the dynamical mean-field Ising model. Instead of classical physical representation of spins and external magnetic field, the model describes traders' opinion dynamics. The external field is endogenized to represent a smoothed moving average of the past state variable. This model captures in a simple set-up the interplay between instantaneous social imitation and past trends in social coordinations. We show the existence of a rich set of bifurcations as a function of the two parameters quantifying the relative importance of instantaneous versus past social opinions on the formation of the next value of the state variable. Moreover, we present a thorough analysis of chaotic behavior, which is exhibited in certain parameter regimes. Finally, we examine several transitions through bifurcation curves and study how they could be understood as specific market scenarios. We find that the amplitude of the corrections needed to recover from a crisis and to push the system back to “normal” is often significantly larger than the strength of the causes that led to the crisis itself.

Dynamics of Marine Zooplankton: Social Behavior, Ecological Interactions, and Physically-Induced Variability

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-02-01

97 3.3.2 Steady-state solutions ..... ........................ 100 3.4 Ecosystem dynamics ...... ............................. 102 3.4.1 Fast ...zooplankton motion is decoupled from biological ac- tivities, as calculated in Flier] et al. (1999). When the diffusion rate is fast compared to phytoplankton...homogenize the zooplankton distribution, which remains spatially more intermit - tent than a passive scalar field. The last panel shows the index for

Discrete Time McKean–Vlasov Control Problem: A Dynamic Programming Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pham, Huyên, E-mail: pham@math.univ-paris-diderot.fr; Wei, Xiaoli, E-mail: tyswxl@gmail.com

We consider the stochastic optimal control problem of nonlinear mean-field systems in discrete time. We reformulate the problem into a deterministic control problem with marginal distribution as controlled state variable, and prove that dynamic programming principle holds in its general form. We apply our method for solving explicitly the mean-variance portfolio selection and the multivariate linear-quadratic McKean–Vlasov control problem.

Quantum annealing with parametrically driven nonlinear oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puri, Shruti

While progress has been made towards building Ising machines to solve hard combinatorial optimization problems, quantum speedups have so far been elusive. Furthermore, protecting annealers against decoherence and achieving long-range connectivity remain important outstanding challenges. With the hope of overcoming these challenges, I introduce a new paradigm for quantum annealing that relies on continuous variable states. Unlike the more conventional approach based on two-level systems, in this approach, quantum information is encoded in two coherent states that are stabilized by parametrically driving a nonlinear resonator. I will show that a fully connected Ising problem can be mapped onto a network of such resonators, and outline an annealing protocol based on adiabatic quantum computing. During the protocol, the resonators in the network evolve from vacuum to coherent states representing the ground state configuration of the encoded problem. In short, the system evolves between two classical states following non-classical dynamics. As will be supported by numerical results, this new annealing paradigm leads to superior noise resilience. Finally, I will discuss a realistic circuit QED realization of an all-to-all connected network of parametrically driven nonlinear resonators. The continuous variable nature of the states in the large Hilbert space of the resonator provides new opportunities for exploring quantum phase transitions and non-stoquastic dynamics during the annealing schedule.

Landscape Encodings Enhance Optimization

PubMed Central

Klemm, Konstantin; Mehta, Anita; Stadler, Peter F.

2012-01-01

Hard combinatorial optimization problems deal with the search for the minimum cost solutions (ground states) of discrete systems under strong constraints. A transformation of state variables may enhance computational tractability. It has been argued that these state encodings are to be chosen invertible to retain the original size of the state space. Here we show how redundant non-invertible encodings enhance optimization by enriching the density of low-energy states. In addition, smooth landscapes may be established on encoded state spaces to guide local search dynamics towards the ground state. PMID:22496860

An Educational Stance on Relationships of Cognitive Organization, Affective States, Reasoning, Creativity, and Customary Productivity in Age of 13-16.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laasonen, Raimo J.

The objective of this study was to find variables that are related to creativity and customary productivity dynamically. The subjects were 86 pupils of a secondary comprehensive school differentiated into age groups of 13, 14, 15, and 16 in southern Finland. Three tests and a matrix questionnaire were constructed for the variables. The data were…

Modeling species occurrence dynamics with multiple states and imperfect detection

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.; Seamans, M.E.; Gutierrez, R.J.

2009-01-01

Recent extensions of occupancy modeling have focused not only on the distribution of species over space, but also on additional state variables (e.g., reproducing or not, with or without disease organisms, relative abundance categories) that provide extra information about occupied sites. These biologist-driven extensions are characterized by ambiguity in both species presence and correct state classification, caused by imperfect detection. We first show the relationships between independently published approaches to the modeling of multistate occupancy. We then extend the pattern-based modeling to the case of sampling over multiple seasons or years in order to estimate state transition probabilities associated with system dynamics. The methodology and its potential for addressing relevant ecological questions are demonstrated using both maximum likelihood (occupancy and successful reproduction dynamics of California Spotted Owl) and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation approaches (changes in relative abundance of green frogs in Maryland). Just as multistate capture-recapture modeling has revolutionized the study of individual marked animals, we believe that multistate occupancy modeling will dramatically increase our ability to address interesting questions about ecological processes underlying population-level dynamics. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Dynamic models for problems of species occurrence with multiple states

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Nichols, J.D.; Seamans, M.E.; Gutierrez, R.J.

2009-01-01

Recent extensions of occupancy modeling have focused not only on the distribution of species over space, but also on additional state variables (e.g., reproducing or not, with or without disease organisms, relative abundance categories) that provide extra information about occupied sites. These biologist-driven extensions are characterized by ambiguity in both species presence and correct state classification, caused by imperfect detection. We first show the relationships between independently published approaches to the modeling of multistate occupancy. We then extend the pattern-based modeling to the case of sampling over multiple seasons or years in order to estimate state transition probabilities associated with system dynamics. The methodology and its potential for addressing relevant ecological questions are demonstrated using both maximum likelihood (occupancy and successful reproduction dynamics of California Spotted Owl) and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation approaches (changes in relative abundance of green frogs in Maryland). Just as multistate capture?recapture modeling has revolutionized the study of individual marked animals, we believe that multistate occupancy modeling will dramatically increase our ability to address interesting questions about ecological processes underlying population-level dynamics.

Guiding the study of brain dynamics by using first-person data: Synchrony patterns correlate with ongoing conscious states during a simple visual task

PubMed Central

Lutz, Antoine; Lachaux, Jean-Philippe; Martinerie, Jacques; Varela, Francisco J.

2002-01-01

Even during well-calibrated cognitive tasks, successive brain responses to repeated identical stimulations are highly variable. The source of this variability is believed to reside mainly in fluctuations of the subject's cognitive “context” defined by his/her attentive state, spontaneous thought process, strategy to carry out the task, and so on … As these factors are hard to manipulate precisely, they are usually not controlled, and the variability is discarded by averaging techniques. We combined first-person data and the analysis of neural processes to reduce such noise. We presented the subjects with a three-dimensional illusion and recorded their electrical brain activity and their own report about their cognitive context. Trials were clustered according to these first-person data, and separate dynamical analyses were conducted for each cluster. We found that (i) characteristic patterns of endogenous synchrony appeared in frontal electrodes before stimulation. These patterns depended on the degree of preparation and the immediacy of perception as verbally reported. (ii) These patterns were stable for several recordings. (iii) Preparatory states modulate both the behavioral performance and the evoked and induced synchronous patterns that follow. (iv) These results indicated that first-person data can be used to detect and interpret neural processes. PMID:11805299

Principal States of Dynamic Functional Connectivity Reveal the Link Between Resting-State and Task-State Brain: An fMRI Study.

PubMed

Cheng, Lin; Zhu, Yang; Sun, Junfeng; Deng, Lifu; He, Naying; Yang, Yang; Ling, Huawei; Ayaz, Hasan; Fu, Yi; Tong, Shanbao

2018-01-25

Task-related reorganization of functional connectivity (FC) has been widely investigated. Under classic static FC analysis, brain networks under task and rest have been demonstrated a general similarity. However, brain activity and cognitive process are believed to be dynamic and adaptive. Since static FC inherently ignores the distinct temporal patterns between rest and task, dynamic FC may be more a suitable technique to characterize the brain's dynamic and adaptive activities. In this study, we adopted [Formula: see text]-means clustering to investigate task-related spatiotemporal reorganization of dynamic brain networks and hypothesized that dynamic FC would be able to reveal the link between resting-state and task-state brain organization, including broadly similar spatial patterns but distinct temporal patterns. In order to test this hypothesis, this study examined the dynamic FC in default-mode network (DMN) and motor-related network (MN) using Blood-Oxygenation-Level-Dependent (BOLD)-fMRI data from 26 healthy subjects during rest (REST) and a hand closing-and-opening (HCO) task. Two principal FC states in REST and one principal FC state in HCO were identified. The first principal FC state in REST was found similar to that in HCO, which appeared to represent intrinsic network architecture and validated the broadly similar spatial patterns between REST and HCO. However, the second FC principal state in REST with much shorter "dwell time" implied the transient functional relationship between DMN and MN during REST. In addition, a more frequent shifting between two principal FC states indicated that brain network dynamically maintained a "default mode" in the motor system during REST, whereas the presence of a single principal FC state and reduced FC variability implied a more temporally stable connectivity during HCO, validating the distinct temporal patterns between REST and HCO. Our results further demonstrated that dynamic FC analysis could offer unique insights in understanding how the brain reorganizes itself during rest and task states, and the ways in which the brain adaptively responds to the cognitive requirements of tasks.

An improved VSS NLMS algorithm for active noise cancellation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Yunzhuo; Wang, Mingjiang; Han, Yufei; Zhang, Congyan

2017-08-01

In this paper, an improved variable step size NLMS algorithm is proposed. NLMS has fast convergence rate and low steady state error compared to other traditional adaptive filtering algorithm. But there is a contradiction between the convergence speed and steady state error that affect the performance of the NLMS algorithm. Now, we propose a new variable step size NLMS algorithm. It dynamically changes the step size according to current error and iteration times. The proposed algorithm has simple formulation and easily setting parameters, and effectively solves the contradiction in NLMS. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm has a good tracking ability, fast convergence rate and low steady state error simultaneously.

Evaluations of high-resolution dynamically downscaled ensembles over the contiguous United States Climate Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.

This study uses Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to evaluate the performance of six dynamical downscaled decadal historical simulations with 12-km resolution for a large domain (7200 x 6180 km) that covers most of North America. The initial and boundary conditions are from three global climate models (GCMs) and one reanalysis data. The GCMs employed in this study are the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component, Community Climate System Model, version 4, and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System. The reanalysis data is from the National Centers for Environmentalmore » Prediction-US. Department of Energy Reanalysis II. We analyze the effects of bias correcting, the lateral boundary conditions and the effects of spectral nudging. We evaluate the model performance for seven surface variables and four upper atmospheric variables based on their climatology and extremes for seven subregions across the United States. The results indicate that the simulation’s performance depends on both location and the features/variable being tested. We find that the use of bias correction and/or nudging is beneficial in many situations, but employing these when running the RCM is not always an improvement when compared to the reference data. The use of an ensemble mean and median leads to a better performance in measuring the climatology, while it is significantly biased for the extremes, showing much larger differences than individual GCM driven model simulations from the reference data. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of these historical model runs in order to make informed decisions when making future projections.« less

GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models. Part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunne, John P.; John, Jasmin G.; Adcroft, Alistair J.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hallberg, Robert W.; Shevalikova, Elena; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Cooke, William; Dunne, Krista A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Krasting, John P.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Phillipps, Peter J.; Sentman, Lori A.; Samuels, Bonita L.; Spelman, Michael J.; Winton, Michael; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Zadeh, Niki

2012-01-01

We describe the physical climate formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate similar climate fidelity as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's previous CM2.1 climate model while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. Differences in the ocean mean state include the thermocline depth being relatively deep in ESM2M and relatively shallow in ESM2G compared to observations. The crucial role of ocean dynamics on climate variability is highlighted in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation being overly strong in ESM2M and overly weak ESM2G relative to observations. Thus, while ESM2G might better represent climate changes relating to: total heat content variability given its lack of long term drift, gyre circulation and ventilation in the North Pacific, tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, and depth structure in the overturning and abyssal flows, ESM2M might better represent climate changes relating to: surface circulation given its superior surface temperature, salinity and height patterns, tropical Pacific circulation and variability, and Southern Ocean dynamics. Our overall assessment is that neither model is fundamentally superior to the other, and that both models achieve sufficient fidelity to allow meaningful climate and earth system modeling applications. This affords us the ability to assess the role of ocean configuration on earth system interactions in the context of two state-of-the-art coupled carbon-climate models.

Simultaneous Estimation of Model State Variables and Observation and Forecast Biases Using a Two-Stage Hybrid Kalman Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pauwels, V. R. N.; DeLannoy, G. J. M.; Hendricks Franssen, H.-J.; Vereecken, H.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we present a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter to estimate both observation and forecast bias in hydrologic models, in addition to state variables. The biases are estimated using the discrete Kalman filter, and the state variables using the ensemble Kalman filter. A key issue in this multi-component assimilation scheme is the exact partitioning of the difference between observation and forecasts into state, forecast bias and observation bias updates. Here, the error covariances of the forecast bias and the unbiased states are calculated as constant fractions of the biased state error covariance, and the observation bias error covariance is a function of the observation prediction error covariance. In a series of synthetic experiments, focusing on the assimilation of discharge into a rainfall-runoff model, it is shown that both static and dynamic observation and forecast biases can be successfully estimated. The results indicate a strong improvement in the estimation of the state variables and resulting discharge as opposed to the use of a bias-unaware ensemble Kalman filter. Furthermore, minimal code modification in existing data assimilation software is needed to implement the method. The results suggest that a better performance of data assimilation methods should be possible if both forecast and observation biases are taken into account.

Filming nuclear dynamics of iodine using x-ray diffraction at the LCLS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ware, Matthew; Natan, Adi; Glownia, James; Cryan, James; Bucksbaum, Phil

2017-04-01

We will provide an overview of our analysis of the nuclear dynamics of iodine. At the LCLS, we pumped a gas cell of iodine with a weak 520nm, 50 fs pulse, and the nuclear dynamics are then probed with 9 keV, 40 fs x-rays with variable time delay. This allows us to simultaneously image nuclear wavepackets on the dissociating A state, on the bound B state, and even Raman wavepackets in the ground electronic state. We will explain at length how we isolate each of these signals using a Legendre decomposition of our x-ray data and the selection rules for each of the transitions. Likewise, we will discuss how we convert the x-ray diffraction patterns into real-space movies of the nuclear dynamics. Research supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Atomic, Molecular, and Optical Science Program. Use of LCLS supported under DOE Contract No. DE-AC02-76F00515.

Digital computer program for generating dynamic turbofan engine models (DIGTEM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniele, C. J.; Krosel, S. M.; Szuch, J. R.; Westerkamp, E. J.

1983-01-01

This report describes DIGTEM, a digital computer program that simulates two spool, two-stream turbofan engines. The turbofan engine model in DIGTEM contains steady-state performance maps for all of the components and has control volumes where continuity and energy balances are maintained. Rotor dynamics and duct momentum dynamics are also included. Altogether there are 16 state variables and state equations. DIGTEM features a backward-differnce integration scheme for integrating stiff systems. It trims the model equations to match a prescribed design point by calculating correction coefficients that balance out the dynamic equations. It uses the same coefficients at off-design points and iterates to a balanced engine condition. Transients can also be run. They are generated by defining controls as a function of time (open-loop control) in a user-written subroutine (TMRSP). DIGTEM has run on the IBM 370/3033 computer using implicit integration with time steps ranging from 1.0 msec to 1.0 sec. DIGTEM is generalized in the aerothermodynamic treatment of components.

A 4-cylinder Stirling engine computer program with dynamic energy equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniele, C. J.; Lorenzo, C. F.

1983-01-01

A computer program for simulating the steady state and transient performance of a four cylinder Stirling engine is presented. The thermodynamic model includes both continuity and energy equations and linear momentum terms (flow resistance). Each working space between the pistons is broken into seven control volumes. Drive dynamics and vehicle load effects are included. The model contains 70 state variables. Also included in the model are piston rod seal leakage effects. The computer program includes a model of a hydrogen supply system, from which hydrogen may be added to the system to accelerate the engine. Flow charts are provided.

A Time Integration Algorithm Based on the State Transition Matrix for Structures with Time Varying and Nonlinear Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartels, Robert E.

2003-01-01

A variable order method of integrating the structural dynamics equations that is based on the state transition matrix has been developed. The method has been evaluated for linear time variant and nonlinear systems of equations. When the time variation of the system can be modeled exactly by a polynomial it produces nearly exact solutions for a wide range of time step sizes. Solutions of a model nonlinear dynamic response exhibiting chaotic behavior have been computed. Accuracy of the method has been demonstrated by comparison with solutions obtained by established methods.

Dynamics analysis of SIR epidemic model with correlation coefficients and clustering coefficient in networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Juping; Yang, Chan; Jin, Zhen; Li, Jia

2018-07-14

In this paper, the correlation coefficients between nodes in states are used as dynamic variables, and we construct SIR epidemic dynamic models with correlation coefficients by using the pair approximation method in static networks and dynamic networks, respectively. Considering the clustering coefficient of the network, we analytically investigate the existence and the local asymptotic stability of each equilibrium of these models and derive threshold values for the prevalence of diseases. Additionally, we obtain two equivalent epidemic thresholds in dynamic networks, which are compared with the results of the mean field equations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Crank inertial load has little effect on steady-state pedaling coordination.

PubMed

Fregly, B J; Zajac, F E; Dairaghi, C A

1996-12-01

Inertial load can affect the control of a dynamic system whenever parts of the system are accelerated or decelerated. During steady-state pedaling, because within-cycle variations in crank angular acceleration still exist, the amount of crank inertia present (which varies widely with road-riding gear ratio) may affect the within-cycle coordination of muscles. However, the effect of inertial load on steady-state pedaling coordination is almost always assumed to be negligible, since the net mechanical energy per cycle developed by muscles only depends on the constant cadence and workload. This study test the hypothesis that under steady-state conditions, the net joint torques produced by muscles at the hip, knee, and ankle are unaffected by crank inertial load. To perform the investigation, we constructed a pedaling apparatus which could emulate the low inertial load of a standard ergometer or the high inertial load of a road bicycle in high gear. Crank angle and bilateral pedal force and angle data were collected from ten subjects instructed to pedal steadily (i.e., constant speed across cycles) and smoothly (i.e., constant speed within a cycle) against both inertias at a constant workload. Virtually no statistically significant changes were found in the net hip and knee muscle joint torques calculated from an inverse dynamics analysis. Though the net ankle muscle joint torque, as well as the one- and two-legged crank torque, showed statistically significant increases at the higher inertia, the changes were small. In contrast, large statistically significant reductions were found in crank kinematic variability both within a cycle and between cycles (i.e., cadence), primarily because a larger inertial load means a slower crank dynamic response. Nonetheless, the reduction in cadence variability was somewhat attenuated by a large statistically significant increase in one-legged crank torque variability. We suggest, therefore, that muscle coordination during steady-state pedaling is largely unaffected, though less well regulated, when crank inertial load is increased.

Uniting statistical and individual-based approaches for animal movement modelling.

PubMed

Latombe, Guillaume; Parrott, Lael; Basille, Mathieu; Fortin, Daniel

2014-01-01

The dynamic nature of their internal states and the environment directly shape animals' spatial behaviours and give rise to emergent properties at broader scales in natural systems. However, integrating these dynamic features into habitat selection studies remains challenging, due to practically impossible field work to access internal states and the inability of current statistical models to produce dynamic outputs. To address these issues, we developed a robust method, which combines statistical and individual-based modelling. Using a statistical technique for forward modelling of the IBM has the advantage of being faster for parameterization than a pure inverse modelling technique and allows for robust selection of parameters. Using GPS locations from caribou monitored in Québec, caribou movements were modelled based on generative mechanisms accounting for dynamic variables at a low level of emergence. These variables were accessed by replicating real individuals' movements in parallel sub-models, and movement parameters were then empirically parameterized using Step Selection Functions. The final IBM model was validated using both k-fold cross-validation and emergent patterns validation and was tested for two different scenarios, with varying hardwood encroachment. Our results highlighted a functional response in habitat selection, which suggests that our method was able to capture the complexity of the natural system, and adequately provided projections on future possible states of the system in response to different management plans. This is especially relevant for testing the long-term impact of scenarios corresponding to environmental configurations that have yet to be observed in real systems.

Uniting Statistical and Individual-Based Approaches for Animal Movement Modelling

PubMed Central

Latombe, Guillaume; Parrott, Lael; Basille, Mathieu; Fortin, Daniel

2014-01-01

The dynamic nature of their internal states and the environment directly shape animals' spatial behaviours and give rise to emergent properties at broader scales in natural systems. However, integrating these dynamic features into habitat selection studies remains challenging, due to practically impossible field work to access internal states and the inability of current statistical models to produce dynamic outputs. To address these issues, we developed a robust method, which combines statistical and individual-based modelling. Using a statistical technique for forward modelling of the IBM has the advantage of being faster for parameterization than a pure inverse modelling technique and allows for robust selection of parameters. Using GPS locations from caribou monitored in Québec, caribou movements were modelled based on generative mechanisms accounting for dynamic variables at a low level of emergence. These variables were accessed by replicating real individuals' movements in parallel sub-models, and movement parameters were then empirically parameterized using Step Selection Functions. The final IBM model was validated using both k-fold cross-validation and emergent patterns validation and was tested for two different scenarios, with varying hardwood encroachment. Our results highlighted a functional response in habitat selection, which suggests that our method was able to capture the complexity of the natural system, and adequately provided projections on future possible states of the system in response to different management plans. This is especially relevant for testing the long-term impact of scenarios corresponding to environmental configurations that have yet to be observed in real systems. PMID:24979047

Encoding dependence in Bayesian causal networks

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bayesian networks (BNs) represent complex, uncertain spatio-temporal dynamics by propagation of conditional probabilities between identifiable states with a testable causal interaction model. Typically, they assume random variables are discrete in time and space with a static network structure that ...

Dynamical complexity changes during two forms of meditation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jin; Hu, Jing; Zhang, Yinhong; Zhang, Xiaofeng

2011-06-01

Detection of dynamical complexity changes in natural and man-made systems has deep scientific and practical meaning. We use the base-scale entropy method to analyze dynamical complexity changes for heart rate variability (HRV) series during specific traditional forms of Chinese Chi and Kundalini Yoga meditation techniques in healthy young adults. The results show that dynamical complexity decreases in meditation states for two forms of meditation. Meanwhile, we detected changes in probability distribution of m-words during meditation and explained this changes using probability distribution of sine function. The base-scale entropy method may be used on a wider range of physiologic signals.

The Role of Dysfunctional Myths in a Decision-Making Process under Bounded Rationality: A Complex Dynamical Systems Perspective.

PubMed

Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Vaiopoulou, Julie

2017-07-01

The present study examines the factors influencing a decision-making process, with specific focus on the role of dysfunctional myths (DM). DM are thoughts or beliefs that are rather irrational, however influential to people's decisions. In this paper a decision-making process regarding the career choice of university students majoring in natural sciences and education (N=496) is examined by analyzing survey data taken via Career Decision Making Difficulties Questionnaire (CDDQ). The difficulty of making the choice and the certainty about one's decision were the state variables, while the independent variables were factors related to the lack of information or knowledge needed, which actually reflect a bounded rationality. Cusp catastrophe analysis, based on both least squares and maximum likelihood procedures, showed that the nonlinear models predicting the two state variables were superior to linear alternatives. Factors related to lack of knowledge about the steps involved in the process of career decision-making, lack of information about the various occupations, lack of information about self and lack of motivation acted as asymmetry, while dysfunctional myths acted as bifurcation factor for both state variables. The catastrophe model, grounded in empirical data, revealed a unique role for DM and a better interpretation within the context of complexity and the notion of bounded rationality. The analysis opens the nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS) perspective in studying decision-making processes. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Least-rattling feedback from strong time-scale separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chvykov, Pavel; England, Jeremy

2018-03-01

In most interacting many-body systems associated with some "emergent phenomena," we can identify subgroups of degrees of freedom that relax on dramatically different time scales. Time-scale separation of this kind is particularly helpful in nonequilibrium systems where only the fast variables are subjected to external driving; in such a case, it may be shown through elimination of fast variables that the slow coordinates effectively experience a thermal bath of spatially varying temperature. In this paper, we investigate how such a temperature landscape arises according to how the slow variables affect the character of the driven quasisteady state reached by the fast variables. Brownian motion in the presence of spatial temperature gradients is known to lead to the accumulation of probability density in low-temperature regions. Here, we focus on the implications of attraction to low effective temperature for the long-term evolution of slow variables. After quantitatively deriving the temperature landscape for a general class of overdamped systems using a path-integral technique, we then illustrate in a simple dynamical system how the attraction to low effective temperature has a fine-tuning effect on the slow variable, selecting configurations that bring about exceptionally low force fluctuation in the fast-variable steady state. We furthermore demonstrate that a particularly strong effect of this kind can take place when the slow variable is tuned to bring about orderly, integrable motion in the fast dynamics that avoids thermalizing energy absorbed from the drive. We thus point to a potentially general feedback mechanism in multi-time-scale active systems, that leads to the exploration of slow variable space, as if in search of fine tuning for a "least-rattling" response in the fast coordinates.

Tying Variability in Summertime North American Extreme Weather Regimes to the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenney, A. M.; Randall, D. A.

2017-12-01

Tropical intraseasonal oscillations are known to be a source of extratropical variability. We show that subseasonal variability in observed North American epidemiologically significant regional extreme weather regimes is teleconnected to the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO)—a complex tropical weather system that is active during the northern summer and has a 30-50 day timescale. The dynamics of the teleconnection are examined. We also find that interannual variability of the tropical mean-state can modulate the teleconnection. Our results suggest that the BSISO may enable subseasonal to seasonal predictions of North American summertime weather extremes.

Time delays, population, and economic development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gori, Luca; Guerrini, Luca; Sodini, Mauro

2018-05-01

This research develops an augmented Solow model with population dynamics and time delays. The model produces either a single stationary state or multiple stationary states (able to characterise different development regimes). The existence of time delays may cause persistent fluctuations in both economic and demographic variables. In addition, the work identifies in a simple way the reasons why economics affects demographics and vice versa.

Inference for finite-sample trajectories in dynamic multi-state site-occupancy models using hidden Markov model smoothing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fiske, Ian J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Gross, Kevin

2014-01-01

Ecologists and wildlife biologists increasingly use latent variable models to study patterns of species occurrence when detection is imperfect. These models have recently been generalized to accommodate both a more expansive description of state than simple presence or absence, and Markovian dynamics in the latent state over successive sampling seasons. In this paper, we write these multi-season, multi-state models as hidden Markov models to find both maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters and finite-sample estimators of the trajectory of the latent state over time. These estimators are especially useful for characterizing population trends in species of conservation concern. We also develop parametric bootstrap procedures that allow formal inference about latent trend. We examine model behavior through simulation, and we apply the model to data from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program.

Back to Pupillometry: How Cortical Network State Fluctuations Tracked by Pupil Dynamics Could Explain Neural Signal Variability in Human Cognitive Neuroscience

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Abstract The mammalian thalamocortical system generates intrinsic activity reflecting different states of excitability, arising from changes in the membrane potentials of underlying neuronal networks. Fluctuations between these states occur spontaneously, regularly, and frequently throughout awake periods and influence stimulus encoding, information processing, and neuronal and behavioral responses. Changes of pupil size have recently been identified as a reliable marker of underlying neuronal membrane potential and thus can encode associated network state changes in rodent cortex. This suggests that pupillometry, a ubiquitous measure of pupil dilation in cognitive neuroscience, could be used as an index for network state fluctuations also for human brain signals. Considering this variable may explain task-independent variance in neuronal and behavioral signals that were previously disregarded as noise. PMID:29379876

Quantifying non-Markovianity of continuous-variable Gaussian dynamical maps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vasile, Ruggero; Maniscalco, Sabrina; Paris, Matteo G. A.

2011-11-15

We introduce a non-Markovianity measure for continuous-variable open quantum systems based on the idea put forward in H.-P. Breuer et al.[Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 210401 (2009);], that is, by quantifying the flow of information from the environment back to the open system. Instead of the trace distance we use here the fidelity to assess distinguishability of quantum states. We employ our measure to evaluate non-Markovianity of two paradigmatic Gaussian channels: the purely damping channel and the quantum Brownian motion channel with Ohmic environment. We consider different classes of Gaussian states and look for pairs of states maximizing the backflow ofmore » information. For coherent states we find simple analytical solutions, whereas for squeezed states we provide both exact numerical and approximate analytical solutions in the weak coupling limit.« less

Cocaine addiction and personality: a mathematical model.

PubMed

Caselles, Antonio; Micó, Joan C; Amigó, Salvador

2010-05-01

The existence of a close relation between personality and drug consumption is recognized, but the corresponding causal connection is not well known. Neither is it well known whether personality exercises an influence predominantly at the beginning and development of addiction, nor whether drug consumption produces changes in personality. This paper presents a dynamic mathematical model of personality and addiction based on the unique personality trait theory (UPTT) and the general modelling methodology. This model attempts to integrate personality, the acute effect of drugs, and addiction. The UPTT states the existence of a unique trait of personality called extraversion, understood as a dimension that ranges from impulsive behaviour and sensation-seeking (extravert pole) to fearful and anxious behaviour (introvert pole). As a consequence of drug consumption, the model provides the main patterns of extraversion dynamics through a system of five coupled differential equations. It combines genetic extraversion, as a steady state, and dynamic extraversion in a unique variable measured on the hedonic scale. The dynamics of this variable describes the effects of stimulant drugs on a short-term time scale (typical of the acute effect); while its mean time value describes the effects of stimulant drugs on a long-term time scale (typical of the addiction effect). This understanding may help to develop programmes of prevention and intervention in drug misuse.

Quantum molecular dynamics simulation of shock-wave experiments in aluminum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minakov, D. V.; Levashov, P. R.; Khishchenko, K. V.; Fortov, V. E.

2014-06-01

We present quantum molecular dynamics calculations of principal, porous, and double shock Hugoniots, release isentropes, and sound velocity behind the shock front for aluminum. A comprehensive analysis of available shock-wave data is performed; the agreement and discrepancies of simulation results with measurements are discussed. Special attention is paid to the melting region of aluminum along the principal Hugoniot; the boundaries of the melting zone are estimated using the self-diffusion coefficient. Also, we make a comparison with a high-quality multiphase equation of state for aluminum. Independent semiempirical and first-principle models are very close to each other in caloric variables (pressure, density, particle velocity, etc.) but the equation of state gives higher temperature on the principal Hugoniot and release isentropes than ab initio calculations. Thus, the quantum molecular dynamics method can be used for calibration of semiempirical equations of state in case of lack of experimental data.

Quantum molecular dynamics simulation of shock-wave experiments in aluminum

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Minakov, D. V.; Khishchenko, K. V.; Fortov, V. E.

2014-06-14

We present quantum molecular dynamics calculations of principal, porous, and double shock Hugoniots, release isentropes, and sound velocity behind the shock front for aluminum. A comprehensive analysis of available shock-wave data is performed; the agreement and discrepancies of simulation results with measurements are discussed. Special attention is paid to the melting region of aluminum along the principal Hugoniot; the boundaries of the melting zone are estimated using the self-diffusion coefficient. Also, we make a comparison with a high-quality multiphase equation of state for aluminum. Independent semiempirical and first-principle models are very close to each other in caloric variables (pressure, density,more » particle velocity, etc.) but the equation of state gives higher temperature on the principal Hugoniot and release isentropes than ab initio calculations. Thus, the quantum molecular dynamics method can be used for calibration of semiempirical equations of state in case of lack of experimental data.« less

Chimeras and clusters in networks of hyperbolic chaotic oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cano, A. V.; Cosenza, M. G.

2017-03-01

We show that chimera states, where differentiated subsets of synchronized and desynchronized dynamical elements coexist, can emerge in networks of hyperbolic chaotic oscillators subject to global interactions. As local dynamics we employ Lozi maps, which possess hyperbolic chaotic attractors. We consider a globally coupled system of these maps and use two statistical quantities to describe its collective behavior: the average fraction of elements belonging to clusters and the average standard deviation of state variables. Chimera states, clusters, complete synchronization, and incoherence are thus characterized on the space of parameters of the system. We find that chimera states are related to the formation of clusters in the system. In addition, we show that chimera states arise for a sufficiently long range of interactions in nonlocally coupled networks of these maps. Our results reveal that, under some circumstances, hyperbolicity does not impede the formation of chimera states in networks of coupled chaotic systems, as it had been previously hypothesized.

Dynamical predictors of an imminent phenotypic switch in bacteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huijing; Ray, J. Christian J.

2017-08-01

Single cells can stochastically switch across thresholds imposed by regulatory networks. Such thresholds can act as a tipping point, drastically changing global phenotypic states. In ecology and economics, imminent transitions across such tipping points can be predicted using dynamical early warning indicators. A typical example is ‘flickering’ of a fast variable, predicting a longer-lasting switch from a low to a high state or vice versa. Considering the different timescales between metabolite and protein fluctuations in bacteria, we hypothesized that metabolic early warning indicators predict imminent transitions across a network threshold caused by enzyme saturation. We used stochastic simulations to determine if flickering predicts phenotypic transitions, accounting for a variety of molecular physiological parameters, including enzyme affinity, burstiness of enzyme gene expression, homeostatic feedback, and rates of metabolic precursor influx. In most cases, we found that metabolic flickering rates are robustly peaked near the enzyme saturation threshold. The degree of fluctuation was amplified by product inhibition of the enzyme. We conclude that sensitivity to flickering in fast variables may be a possible natural or synthetic strategy to prepare physiological states for an imminent transition.

Sensitivity vector fields in time-delay coordinate embeddings: theory and experiment.

PubMed

Sloboda, A R; Epureanu, B I

2013-02-01

Identifying changes in the parameters of a dynamical system can be vital in many diagnostic and sensing applications. Sensitivity vector fields (SVFs) are one way of identifying such parametric variations by quantifying their effects on the morphology of a dynamical system's attractor. In many cases, SVFs are a more effective means of identification than commonly employed modal methods. Previously, it has only been possible to construct SVFs for a given dynamical system when a full set of state variables is available. This severely restricts SVF applicability because it may be cost prohibitive, or even impossible, to measure the entire state in high-dimensional systems. Thus, the focus of this paper is constructing SVFs with only partial knowledge of the state by using time-delay coordinate embeddings. Local models are employed in which the embedded states of a neighborhood are weighted in a way referred to as embedded point cloud averaging. Application of the presented methodology to both simulated and experimental time series demonstrates its utility and reliability.

Risperidone Effects on Brain Dynamic Connectivity-A Prospective Resting-State fMRI Study in Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Lottman, Kristin K; Kraguljac, Nina V; White, David M; Morgan, Charity J; Calhoun, Vince D; Butt, Allison; Lahti, Adrienne C

2017-01-01

Resting-state functional connectivity studies in schizophrenia evaluating average connectivity over the entire experiment have reported aberrant network integration, but findings are variable. Examining time-varying (dynamic) functional connectivity may help explain some inconsistencies. We assessed dynamic network connectivity using resting-state functional MRI in patients with schizophrenia, while unmedicated ( n  = 34), after 1 week ( n  = 29) and 6 weeks of treatment with risperidone ( n  = 24), as well as matched controls at baseline ( n  = 35) and after 6 weeks ( n  = 19). After identifying 41 independent components (ICs) comprising resting-state networks, sliding window analysis was performed on IC timecourses using an optimal window size validated with linear support vector machines. Windowed correlation matrices were then clustered into three discrete connectivity states (a relatively sparsely connected state, a relatively abundantly connected state, and an intermediately connected state). In unmedicated patients, static connectivity was increased between five pairs of ICs and decreased between two pairs of ICs when compared to controls, dynamic connectivity showed increased connectivity between the thalamus and somatomotor network in one of the three states. State statistics indicated that, in comparison to controls, unmedicated patients had shorter mean dwell times and fraction of time spent in the sparsely connected state, and longer dwell times and fraction of time spent in the intermediately connected state. Risperidone appeared to normalize mean dwell times after 6 weeks, but not fraction of time. Results suggest that static connectivity abnormalities in schizophrenia may partly be related to altered brain network temporal dynamics rather than consistent dysconnectivity within and between functional networks and demonstrate the importance of implementing complementary data analysis techniques.

Evaluations of high-resolution dynamically downscaled ensembles over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

2018-02-01

This study uses Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to evaluate the performance of six dynamical downscaled decadal historical simulations with 12-km resolution for a large domain (7200 × 6180 km) that covers most of North America. The initial and boundary conditions are from three global climate models (GCMs) and one reanalysis data. The GCMs employed in this study are the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component, Community Climate System Model, version 4, and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System. The reanalysis data is from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-US. Department of Energy Reanalysis II. We analyze the effects of bias correcting, the lateral boundary conditions and the effects of spectral nudging. We evaluate the model performance for seven surface variables and four upper atmospheric variables based on their climatology and extremes for seven subregions across the United States. The results indicate that the simulation's performance depends on both location and the features/variable being tested. We find that the use of bias correction and/or nudging is beneficial in many situations, but employing these when running the RCM is not always an improvement when compared to the reference data. The use of an ensemble mean and median leads to a better performance in measuring the climatology, while it is significantly biased for the extremes, showing much larger differences than individual GCM driven model simulations from the reference data. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of these historical model runs in order to make informed decisions when making future projections.

State dynamics of a double sandbar system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, T. D.; Ruessink, B. G.

2011-04-01

A 9.3-year dataset of low-tide time-exposure images from Surfers Paradise, Northern Gold Coast, Australia was used to characterise the state dynamics of a double sandbar system. The morphology of the nearshore sandbars was described by means of the sequential bar state classification scheme of Wright and Short [1984. Morphodynamic variability of surf zones and beaches: a synthesis. Marine Geology 56, 93-118]. Besides the two end members (the dissipative (D) and the reflective (R) states) and the four intermediate states (longshore bar and trough (LBT), rhythmic bar and beach (RBB), transverse bar and rip (TBR) and low tide terrace (LTT)), we identified two additional intermediate bar states. The erosive transverse bar and rip (eTBR) state related to the dominant oblique angle of wave incidence at the study site and the rhythmic low tide terrace (rLTT) related to the multiple bar setting. Using the alongshore barline variability and alongshore trough continuity as morphological indicators enabled the objective classification of the inner and outer bar states from the images. The outer bar was mostly in the TBR state and generally advanced sequentially through the states LBT-RBB-TBR-eTBR-LBT, with occasional transitions to the D state. Wave events led to abrupt state transitions of the outer bar, but, in contrast to expectations, did not necessarily correspond to upstate transitions. Instead, upstate (downstate) transitions coincided with angles of wave incidence θ larger (smaller) than 30°. The upstate TBR-eTBR-LBT sequence during high-angle events highlights the role of alongshore currents in bar straightening. The outer bar was found to govern the state of the inner bar to a large extent. Two types of inner bar behaviour were distinguished, based on the outer bar state. For intermediate outer bar states, the alongshore variability of the dominant inner rLTT state (52% in time) mainly related to that of the outer bar, implying some sort of morphological coupling. For dissipative outer bar states, however, the more upstate inner bar frequently separated from the shoreline and persistently developed rip channels as TBR became the most frequent state (60% in time).

(abstract) TOPEX/Poseidon: Four Years of Synoptic Oceanography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng

1996-01-01

Exceeding all expectations of measurement precision and accuracy, the US/France TOPEX/Poseidon satellite mission is now in its 5th year. Returning more than 98 percent of the altimetric data, the measured global geocentric height of the sea surface has provided unprecedented opportunities to address a host of scientific problems ranging from the dynamics of ocean circulation to the distribution of internal tidal energy. Scientific highlights of this longest-running altimetric satellite mission include improvements in our understanding of the dynamics and thermodynamics of the large-scale ocean variability, such as, the properties of planetary waves; the energetics of basin-wide gyres; the heat budget of the ocean; and the ocean's response to wind forcing. For the first time, oceanographers have quantitative descriptions of a dynamic variable of the physical state of the global oceans available in near-real-time.

Dynamic and Transient Performance of Turbofan/Turboshaft Convertible Engine With Variable Inlet Guide Vanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McArdle, Jack G.; Barth, Richard L.; Wenzel, Leon M.; Biesiadny, Thomas J.

1996-01-01

A convertible engine called the CEST TF34, using the variable inlet guide vane method of power change, was tested on an outdoor stand at the NASA Lewis Research Center with a waterbrake dynamometer for the shaft load. A new digital electronic system, in conjunction with a modified standard TF34 hydromechanical fuel control, kept engine operation stable and safely within limits. All planned testing was completed successfully. Steady-state performance and acoustic characteristics were reported previously and are referenced. This report presents results of transient and dynamic tests. The transient tests measured engine response to several rapid changes in thrust and torque commands at constant fan (shaft) speed. Limited results from dynamic tests using the pseudorandom binary noise technique are also presented. Performance of the waterbrake dynamometer is discussed in an appendix.

Rapid acquisition of data dense solid-state CPMG NMR spectral sets using multi-dimensional statistical analysis

DOE PAGES

Mason, H. E.; Uribe, E. C.; Shusterman, J. A.

2018-01-01

Tensor-rank decomposition methods have been applied to variable contact time 29 Si{ 1 H} CP/CPMG NMR data sets to extract NMR dynamics information and dramatically decrease conventional NMR acquisition times.

Rapid acquisition of data dense solid-state CPMG NMR spectral sets using multi-dimensional statistical analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mason, H. E.; Uribe, E. C.; Shusterman, J. A.

Tensor-rank decomposition methods have been applied to variable contact time 29 Si{ 1 H} CP/CPMG NMR data sets to extract NMR dynamics information and dramatically decrease conventional NMR acquisition times.

State Anxiety and Nonlinear Dynamics of Heart Rate Variability in Students

PubMed Central

Dimitriev, Aleksey D.

2016-01-01

Objectives Clinical and experimental research studies have demonstrated that the emotional experience of anxiety impairs heart rate variability (HRV) in humans. The present study investigated whether changes in state anxiety (SA) can also modulate nonlinear dynamics of heart rate. Methods A group of 96 students volunteered to participate in the study. For each student, two 5-minute recordings of beat intervals (RR) were performed: one during a rest period and one just before a university examination, which was assumed to be a real-life stressor. Nonlinear analysis of HRV was performed. The Spielberger’s State-Trait Anxiety Inventory was used to assess the level of SA. Results Before adjusting for heart rate, a Wilcoxon matched pairs test showed significant decreases in Poincaré plot measures, entropy, largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE), and pointwise correlation dimension (PD2), and an increase in the short-term fractal-like scaling exponent of detrended fluctuation analysis (α1) during the exam session, compared with the rest period. A Pearson analysis indicated significant negative correlations between the dynamics of SA and Poincaré plot axes ratio (SD1/SD2), and between changes in SA and changes in entropy measures. A strong negative correlation was found between the dynamics of SA and LLE. A significant positive correlation was found between the dynamics of SA and α1. The decreases in Poincaré plot measures (SD1, complex correlation measure), entropy measures, and LLE were still significant after adjusting for heart rate. Corrected α1 was increased during the exam session. As before, the dynamics of adjusted LLE was significantly correlated with the dynamics of SA. Conclusions The qualitative increase in SA during academic examination was related to the decrease in the complexity and size of the Poincaré plot through a reduction of both the interbeat interval and its variation. PMID:26807793

Beyond the NAO: Dynamics and Precipitation Implications of the Azores High Since AD 800

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thatcher, D.; Wanamaker, A. D.; Denniston, R. F.; Asmerom, Y.; Ummenhofer, C.; Polyak, V. J.; Haws, J.; Gillikin, D. P.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region during the last millennium, particularly the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a system closely tied to regional precipitation dynamics, remains the subject of considerable debate in both proxy- and model-based studies. It has been suggested that the winter NAO was in a persistently positive state during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; AD 850-1250), resulting in increased precipitation across much of northern Europe and decreased rainfall across Iberia. However, besides changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation dynamics that could be associated with an altered mean state of the NAO, relatively little attention has been given to atmospheric dynamics, namely the intensity and location, of the subtropical high system (Azores High, the southern node of the NAO) in driving hydroclimate in Iberia. Presented here is a continuous, precisely dated, and sub-decadally-resolved stalagmite isotopic and elemental time series from Buraca Gloriosa (BG) cave, western Portugal, situated within the center of the Azores High at the southern node of the NAO, which preserves evidence of regional hydroclimate from approximately AD 800 to the present. Stalagmite oxygen and carbon isotopic values and magnesium/calcium ratios primarily reflect effective moisture and reveal generally dry conditions during the MCA with a rapid shift to wetter conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA; AD 1250-1850) at this location. Our proxy data reveal that substantial short-term hydroclimate variability characterized the last 1200 years. They support the hypothesis that while an intensified, semi-persistent subtropical high (and likely positive NAO state) characterized much of the MCA, the NAO remained variable over this time period. Climate model results also suggest that the Azores High pressure system both migrated southward and weakened from the MCA into the LIA.

Nonlinear waves in solids with slow dynamics: an internal-variable model.

PubMed

Berjamin, H; Favrie, N; Lombard, B; Chiavassa, G

2017-05-01

In heterogeneous solids such as rocks and concrete, the speed of sound diminishes with the strain amplitude of a dynamic loading (softening). This decrease, known as 'slow dynamics', occurs at time scales larger than the period of the forcing. Also, hysteresis is observed in the steady-state response. The phenomenological model by Vakhnenko et al. (2004 Phys. Rev. E 70, 015602. (doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.70.015602)) is based on a variable that describes the softening of the material. However, this model is one dimensional and it is not thermodynamically admissible. In the present article, a three-dimensional model is derived in the framework of the finite-strain theory. An internal variable that describes the softening of the material is introduced, as well as an expression of the specific internal energy. A mechanical constitutive law is deduced from the Clausius-Duhem inequality. Moreover, a family of evolution equations for the internal variable is proposed. Here, an evolution equation with one relaxation time is chosen. By construction, this new model of the continuum is thermodynamically admissible and dissipative (inelastic). In the case of small uniaxial deformations, it is shown analytically that the model reproduces qualitatively the main features of real experiments.

Regime Behavior in Paleo-Reconstructed Streamflow: Attributions to Atmospheric Dynamics, Synoptic Circulation and Large-Scale Climate Teleconnection Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

Studies have shown that streamflow behavior and dynamics have a significant link with climate and climate variability. Patterns of persistent regime behavior from extended streamflow records in many watersheds justify investigating large-scale climate mechanisms as potential drivers of hydrologic regime behavior and streamflow variability. Understanding such streamflow-climate relationships is crucial to forecasting/simulation systems and the planning and management of water resources. In this study, hidden Markov models are used with reconstructed streamflow to detect regime-like behaviors - the hidden states - and state transition phenomena. Individual extreme events and their spatial variability across the basin are then verified with the identified states. Wavelet analysis is performed to examine the signals over time in the streamflow records. Joint analyses of the climatic data in the 20th century and the identified states are undertaken to better understand the hydroclimatic connections within the basin as well as important teleconnections that influence water supply. Compositing techniques are used to identify atmospheric circulation patterns associated with identified states of streamflow. The grouping of such synoptic patterns and their frequency are then examined. Sliding time-window correlation analysis and cross-wavelet spectral analysis are performed to establish the synchronicity of basin flows to the identified synoptic and teleconnection patterns. The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is examined in this study, both as a means of better understanding the synoptic climate controls in this important watershed and as a case study for the techniques developed here. Initial wavelet analyses of reconstructed streamflow at major gauges in the MRB show multidecadal cycles in regime behavior.

Quantifying the dynamics of emotional expressions in family therapy of patients with anorexia nervosa.

PubMed

Pezard, Laurent; Doba, Karyn; Lesne, Annick; Nandrino, Jean-Louis

2017-07-01

Emotional interactions have been considered dynamical processes involved in the affective life of humans and their disturbances may induce mental disorders. Most studies of emotional interactions have focused on dyadic behaviors or self-reports of emotional states but neglected the dynamical processes involved in family therapy. The main objective of this study is to quantify the dynamics of emotional expressions and their changes using the family therapy of patients with anorexia nervosa as an example. Nonlinear methods characterize the variability of the dynamics at the level of the whole therapeutic system and reciprocal influence between the participants during family therapy. Results show that the variability of the dynamics is higher at the end of the therapy than at the beginning. The reciprocal influences between therapist and each member of the family and between mother and patient decrease with the course of family therapy. Our results support the development of new interpersonal strategies of emotion regulation during family therapy. The quantification of emotional dynamics can help understanding the emotional processes underlying psychopathology and evaluating quantitatively the changes achieved by the therapeutic intervention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern United States.

PubMed

Gremer, Jennifer R; Bradford, John B; Munson, Seth M; Duniway, Michael C

2015-11-01

Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables. Our analyses focused on long-term (20-56 years) perennial grass dynamics across the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Desert regions. Our results suggest that climate variability has negative effects on grass cover, and that precipitation subsidies that extend growing seasons are beneficial. Soil water metrics, including the number of dry days and availability of water from deeper (>30 cm) soil layers, explained additional grass cover variability. While individual climate variables were ranked as more important in explaining grass cover, collectively soil water accounted for 40-60% of the total explained variance. Soil water conditions were more useful for understanding the responses of C3 than C4 grass species. Projections of water balance variables under climate change indicate that conditions that currently support perennial grasses will be less common in the future, and these altered conditions will be more pronounced in the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau. We conclude that incorporating multiple aspects of climate and accounting for soil variability can improve our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of desert grasslands. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Robust peptidoglycan growth by dynamic and variable multi-protein complexes.

PubMed

Pazos, Manuel; Peters, Katharina; Vollmer, Waldemar

2017-04-01

In Gram-negative bacteria such as Escherichia coli the peptidoglycan sacculus resides in the periplasm, a compartment that experiences changes in pH value, osmolality, ion strength and other parameters depending on the cell's environment. Hence, the cell needs robust peptidoglycan growth mechanisms to grow and divide under different conditions. Here we propose a model according to which the cell achieves robust peptidoglycan growth by employing dynamic multi-protein complexes, which assemble with variable composition from freely diffusing sets of peptidoglycan synthases, hydrolases and their regulators, whereby the composition of the active complexes depends on the cell cycle state - cell elongation or division - and the periplasmic growth conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macrocyclic molecular rotors with bridged steroidal frameworks.

PubMed

Czajkowska-Szczykowska, Dorota; Rodríguez-Molina, Braulio; Magaña-Vergara, Nancy E; Santillan, Rosa; Morzycki, Jacek W; Garcia-Garibay, Miguel A

2012-11-16

In this work, we describe the synthesis and solid-state dynamics of isomeric molecular rotors 7E and 7Z, consisting of two androstane steroidal frameworks linked by the D rings by triple bonds at their C17 positions to a 1,4-phenylene rotator. They are also linked by the A rings by an alkenyl diester bridge to restrict the conformational flexibility of the molecules and reduce the number of potential crystalline arrays. The analysis of the resulting molecular structures and packing motifs offered insights of the internal dynamics that were later elucidated by means of line shape analyses of the spectral features obtained through variable-temperature solid-state (13)C NMR; such analysis revealed rotations in the solid state occurring at kilohertz frequency at room temperature.

Exaggerated heart rate oscillations during two meditation techniques.

PubMed

Peng, C K; Mietus, J E; Liu, Y; Khalsa, G; Douglas, P S; Benson, H; Goldberger, A L

1999-07-31

We report extremely prominent heart rate oscillations associated with slow breathing during specific traditional forms of Chinese Chi and Kundalini Yoga meditation techniques in healthy young adults. We applied both spectral analysis and a novel analytic technique based on the Hilbert transform to quantify these heart rate dynamics. The amplitude of these oscillations during meditation was significantly greater than in the pre-meditation control state and also in three non-meditation control groups: i) elite athletes during sleep, ii) healthy young adults during metronomic breathing, and iii) healthy young adults during spontaneous nocturnal breathing. This finding, along with the marked variability of the beat-to-beat heart rate dynamics during such profound meditative states, challenges the notion of meditation as only an autonomically quiescent state.

Signs of universality in the structure of culture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Băbeanu, Alexandru-Ionuţ; Talman, Leandros; Garlaschelli, Diego

2017-11-01

Understanding the dynamics of opinions, preferences and of culture as whole requires more use of empirical data than has been done so far. It is clear that an important role in driving this dynamics is played by social influence, which is the essential ingredient of many quantitative models. Such models require that all traits are fixed when specifying the "initial cultural state". Typically, this initial state is randomly generated, from a uniform distribution over the set of possible combinations of traits. However, recent work has shown that the outcome of social influence dynamics strongly depends on the nature of the initial state. If the latter is sampled from empirical data instead of being generated in a uniformly random way, a higher level of cultural diversity is found after long-term dynamics, for the same level of propensity towards collective behavior in the short-term. Moreover, if the initial state is randomized by shuffling the empirical traits among people, the level of long-term cultural diversity is in-between those obtained for the empirical and uniformly random counterparts. The current study repeats the analysis for multiple empirical data sets, showing that the results are remarkably similar, although the matrix of correlations between cultural variables clearly differs across data sets. This points towards robust structural properties inherent in empirical cultural states, possibly due to universal laws governing the dynamics of culture in the real world. The results also suggest that this dynamics might be characterized by criticality and involve mechanisms beyond social influence.

Kalman Filter Constraint Tuning for Turbofan Engine Health Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Dan; Simon, Donald L.

2005-01-01

Kalman filters are often used to estimate the state variables of a dynamic system. However, in the application of Kalman filters some known signal information is often either ignored or dealt with heuristically. For instance, state variable constraints are often neglected because they do not fit easily into the structure of the Kalman filter. Recently published work has shown a new method for incorporating state variable inequality constraints in the Kalman filter, which has been shown to generally improve the filter s estimation accuracy. However, the incorporation of inequality constraints poses some risk to the estimation accuracy as the Kalman filter is theoretically optimal. This paper proposes a way to tune the filter constraints so that the state estimates follow the unconstrained (theoretically optimal) filter when the confidence in the unconstrained filter is high. When confidence in the unconstrained filter is not so high, then we use our heuristic knowledge to constrain the state estimates. The confidence measure is based on the agreement of measurement residuals with their theoretical values. The algorithm is demonstrated on a linearized simulation of a turbofan engine to estimate engine health.

Controlling spiral waves and turbulent states in cardiac tissue by traveling wave perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Peng-Ye; Xie, Ping

2000-03-01

We propose a traveling wave perturbation method to control the spatiotemporal dynamics in cardiac tissue. With a two-variable model we demonstrate that the method can successfully suppress the wave instability (alternans in action potential duration) in the one-dimensional case and convert spiral waves and turbulent states to the normal traveling wave state in the two-dimensional case. An experimental scheme is suggested which may provide a new design for a cardiac defibrillator.

Pluripotency, Differentiation, and Reprogramming: A Gene Expression Dynamics Model with Epigenetic Feedback Regulation

PubMed Central

Miyamoto, Tadashi; Furusawa, Chikara; Kaneko, Kunihiko

2015-01-01

Embryonic stem cells exhibit pluripotency: they can differentiate into all types of somatic cells. Pluripotent genes such as Oct4 and Nanog are activated in the pluripotent state, and their expression decreases during cell differentiation. Inversely, expression of differentiation genes such as Gata6 and Gata4 is promoted during differentiation. The gene regulatory network controlling the expression of these genes has been described, and slower-scale epigenetic modifications have been uncovered. Although the differentiation of pluripotent stem cells is normally irreversible, reprogramming of cells can be experimentally manipulated to regain pluripotency via overexpression of certain genes. Despite these experimental advances, the dynamics and mechanisms of differentiation and reprogramming are not yet fully understood. Based on recent experimental findings, we constructed a simple gene regulatory network including pluripotent and differentiation genes, and we demonstrated the existence of pluripotent and differentiated states from the resultant dynamical-systems model. Two differentiation mechanisms, interaction-induced switching from an expression oscillatory state and noise-assisted transition between bistable stationary states, were tested in the model. The former was found to be relevant to the differentiation process. We also introduced variables representing epigenetic modifications, which controlled the threshold for gene expression. By assuming positive feedback between expression levels and the epigenetic variables, we observed differentiation in expression dynamics. Additionally, with numerical reprogramming experiments for differentiated cells, we showed that pluripotency was recovered in cells by imposing overexpression of two pluripotent genes and external factors to control expression of differentiation genes. Interestingly, these factors were consistent with the four Yamanaka factors, Oct4, Sox2, Klf4, and Myc, which were necessary for the establishment of induced pluripotent stem cells. These results, based on a gene regulatory network and expression dynamics, contribute to our wider understanding of pluripotency, differentiation, and reprogramming of cells, and they provide a fresh viewpoint on robustness and control during development. PMID:26308610

Multivariate dynamic Tobit models with lagged observed dependent variables: An effectiveness analysis of highway safety laws.

PubMed

Dong, Chunjiao; Xie, Kun; Zeng, Jin; Li, Xia

2018-04-01

Highway safety laws aim to influence driver behaviors so as to reduce the frequency and severity of crashes, and their outcomes. For one specific highway safety law, it would have different effects on the crashes across severities. Understanding such effects can help policy makers upgrade current laws and hence improve traffic safety. To investigate the effects of highway safety laws on crashes across severities, multivariate models are needed to account for the interdependency issues in crash counts across severities. Based on the characteristics of the dependent variables, multivariate dynamic Tobit (MVDT) models are proposed to analyze crash counts that are aggregated at the state level. Lagged observed dependent variables are incorporated into the MVDT models to account for potential temporal correlation issues in crash data. The state highway safety law related factors are used as the explanatory variables and socio-demographic and traffic factors are used as the control variables. Three models, a MVDT model with lagged observed dependent variables, a MVDT model with unobserved random variables, and a multivariate static Tobit (MVST) model are developed and compared. The results show that among the investigated models, the MVDT models with lagged observed dependent variables have the best goodness-of-fit. The findings indicate that, compared to the MVST, the MVDT models have better explanatory power and prediction accuracy. The MVDT model with lagged observed variables can better handle the stochasticity and dependency in the temporal evolution of the crash counts and the estimated values from the model are closer to the observed values. The results show that more lives could be saved if law enforcement agencies can make a sustained effort to educate the public about the importance of motorcyclists wearing helmets. Motor vehicle crash-related deaths, injuries, and property damages could be reduced if states enact laws for stricter text messaging rules, higher speeding fines, older licensing age, and stronger graduated licensing provisions. Injury and PDO crashes would be significantly reduced with stricter laws prohibiting the use of hand-held communication devices and higher fines for drunk driving. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trajectory controllability of semilinear systems with multiple variable delays in control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klamka, Jerzy, E-mail: Jerzy.Klamka@polsl.pl, E-mail: Michal.Niezabitowski@polsl.pl; Niezabitowski, Michał, E-mail: Jerzy.Klamka@polsl.pl, E-mail: Michal.Niezabitowski@polsl.pl

In this paper, finite-dimensional dynamical control system described by semilinear differential state equation with multiple variable delays in control are considered. The concept of controllability we extend on trajectory controllability for systems with multiple point delays in control. Moreover, remarks and comments on the relationships between different concepts of controllability are presented. Finally, simple numerical example, which illustrates theoretical considerations is also given. The possible extensions are also proposed.

Molecular dynamics equation of state for nonpolar geochemical fluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Zhenhao; Møller, Nancy; Wears, John H.

1995-04-01

Remarkable agreement between molecular dynamics simulations and experimental measurements has been obtained for methane for a large range of intensive variables, including those corresponding to liquid/vapor coexistence. Using a simple Lennard-Jones potential the simulations not only predict the PVT properties up to 2000°C and 20,000 bar with errors less than 1.5%, but also reproduce phase equilibria well below 0°C with accuracy close to experiment. This two-parameter molecular dynamics equation of state (SOS) is accurate for a much larger range of temperatures and pressures than our previously published EOS with a total fifteen parameters or that of Angus et al. (1978) with thirty-three parameters. By simple scaling, it is possible to predict PVT and phase equilibria of other nonpolar and weakly polar species.

Effects of ecological interactions and environmental conditions on community dynamics in an estuarine ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, H.; Minello, T.; Sutton, G.

2016-02-01

Coastal marine ecosystems are both productive and vulnerable to human and natural stressors. Examining the relative importance of fishing, environmental variability, and habitat alteration on ecosystem dynamics is challenging. Intensive harvest and habitat loss have resulted in widespread concerns related to declines in fisheries production, but causal mechanisms are rarely clear. In this study, we modeled trophic dynamics in Galveston Bay, Texas, using fishery-independent catch data for blue crab, shrimp, red drum, Atlantic croaker and spotted seatrout along with habitat information collected by the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department during 1984 - 2014. We developed a multispecies state-space model to examine ecological interactions and partition the relative effects of trophic interactions and environmental conditions on the community dynamics. Preliminary results showed the importance of salinity, density-dependence, and trophic interactions. We are continuing to explore these results from a perspective of fish community compensatory responses to exploitation, reflecting both direct and indirect effects of harvesting under the influence of climate variability.

Nonlinear intrinsic variables and state reconstruction in multiscale simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dsilva, Carmeline J., E-mail: cdsilva@princeton.edu; Talmon, Ronen, E-mail: ronen.talmon@yale.edu; Coifman, Ronald R., E-mail: coifman@math.yale.edu

2013-11-14

Finding informative low-dimensional descriptions of high-dimensional simulation data (like the ones arising in molecular dynamics or kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of physical and chemical processes) is crucial to understanding physical phenomena, and can also dramatically assist in accelerating the simulations themselves. In this paper, we discuss and illustrate the use of nonlinear intrinsic variables (NIV) in the mining of high-dimensional multiscale simulation data. In particular, we focus on the way NIV allows us to functionally merge different simulation ensembles, and different partial observations of these ensembles, as well as to infer variables not explicitly measured. The approach relies on certainmore » simple features of the underlying process variability to filter out measurement noise and systematically recover a unique reference coordinate frame. We illustrate the approach through two distinct sets of atomistic simulations: a stochastic simulation of an enzyme reaction network exhibiting both fast and slow time scales, and a molecular dynamics simulation of alanine dipeptide in explicit water.« less

Nonlinear intrinsic variables and state reconstruction in multiscale simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dsilva, Carmeline J.; Talmon, Ronen; Rabin, Neta; Coifman, Ronald R.; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.

2013-11-01

Finding informative low-dimensional descriptions of high-dimensional simulation data (like the ones arising in molecular dynamics or kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of physical and chemical processes) is crucial to understanding physical phenomena, and can also dramatically assist in accelerating the simulations themselves. In this paper, we discuss and illustrate the use of nonlinear intrinsic variables (NIV) in the mining of high-dimensional multiscale simulation data. In particular, we focus on the way NIV allows us to functionally merge different simulation ensembles, and different partial observations of these ensembles, as well as to infer variables not explicitly measured. The approach relies on certain simple features of the underlying process variability to filter out measurement noise and systematically recover a unique reference coordinate frame. We illustrate the approach through two distinct sets of atomistic simulations: a stochastic simulation of an enzyme reaction network exhibiting both fast and slow time scales, and a molecular dynamics simulation of alanine dipeptide in explicit water.

Fire - Southern Oscillation relations in the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swetnam, T.W.; Betancourt, J.L.

1990-01-01

Fire scar and tree growth chronologies (1700 to 1905) and fire statistics (since 1905) from Arizona and New Mexico show that small areas burn after wet springs associated with the low phase of the Southern Oscillation (SO), whereas large areas burn after dry springs associated with the high phase of the SO. Through its synergistic influence on spring weather and fuel conditions, climatic variability in the tropical Pacific significantly influences vegetation dynamics in the southwestern United States. Synchrony of fire-free and severe fire years across diverse southwestern forests implies that climate forces fire regimes on a subcontinental scale; it also underscores the importance of exogenous factors in ecosystem dynamics.

Improving the effectiveness of ecological site descriptions: General state-and-transition models and the Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool (EDIT)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Williamson, Jeb C.; Talbot, Curtis J.; Cates, Greg W.; Duniway, Michael C.; Brown, Joel R.

2016-01-01

State-and-transition models (STMs) are useful tools for management, but they can be difficult to use and have limited content.STMs created for groups of related ecological sites could simplify and improve their utility. The amount of information linked to models can be increased using tables that communicate management interpretations and important within-group variability.We created a new web-based information system (the Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool) to house STMs, associated tabular information, and other ecological site data and descriptors.Fewer, more informative, better organized, and easily accessible STMs should increase the accessibility of science information.

A nonlinear Kalman filtering approach to embedded control of turbocharged diesel engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigatos, Gerasimos; Siano, Pierluigi; Arsie, Ivan

2014-10-01

The development of efficient embedded control for turbocharged Diesel engines, requires the programming of elaborated nonlinear control and filtering methods. To this end, in this paper nonlinear control for turbocharged Diesel engines is developed with the use of Differential flatness theory and the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter. It is shown that the dynamic model of the turbocharged Diesel engine is differentially flat and admits dynamic feedback linearization. It is also shown that the dynamic model can be written in the linear Brunovsky canonical form for which a state feedback controller can be easily designed. To compensate for modeling errors and external disturbances the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter is used and redesigned as a disturbance observer. The filter consists of the Kalman Filter recursion on the linearized equivalent of the Diesel engine model and of an inverse transformation based on differential flatness theory which enables to obtain estimates for the state variables of the initial nonlinear model. Once the disturbances variables are identified it is possible to compensate them by including an additional control term in the feedback loop. The efficiency of the proposed control method is tested through simulation experiments.

Position and attitude tracking control for a quadrotor UAV.

PubMed

Xiong, Jing-Jing; Zheng, En-Hui

2014-05-01

A synthesis control method is proposed to perform the position and attitude tracking control of the dynamical model of a small quadrotor unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), where the dynamical model is underactuated, highly-coupled and nonlinear. Firstly, the dynamical model is divided into a fully actuated subsystem and an underactuated subsystem. Secondly, a controller of the fully actuated subsystem is designed through a novel robust terminal sliding mode control (TSMC) algorithm, which is utilized to guarantee all state variables converge to their desired values in short time, the convergence time is so small that the state variables are acted as time invariants in the underactuated subsystem, and, a controller of the underactuated subsystem is designed via sliding mode control (SMC), in addition, the stabilities of the subsystems are demonstrated by Lyapunov theory, respectively. Lastly, in order to demonstrate the robustness of the proposed control method, the aerodynamic forces and moments and air drag taken as external disturbances are taken into account, the obtained simulation results show that the synthesis control method has good performance in terms of position and attitude tracking when faced with external disturbances. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of renal denervation on dynamic autoregulation of renal blood flow.

PubMed

DiBona, Gerald F; Sawin, Linda L

2004-06-01

Vasoconstrictor intensities of renal sympathetic nerve stimulation elevate the renal arterial pressure threshold for steady-state stepwise autoregulation of renal blood flow. This study examined the tonic effect of basal renal sympathetic nerve activity on dynamic autoregulation of renal blood flow in rats with normal (Sprague-Dawley and Wistar-Kyoto) and increased levels of renal sympathetic nerve activity (congestive heart failure and spontaneously hypertensive rats). Steady-state values of arterial pressure and renal blood flow before and after acute renal denervation were subjected to transfer function analysis. Renal denervation increased basal renal blood flow in congestive heart failure (+35 +/- 3%) and spontaneously hypertensive rats (+21 +/- 3%) but not in Sprague-Dawley and Wistar-Kyoto rats. Renal denervation significantly decreased transfer function gain (i.e., improved autoregulation of renal blood flow) and increased coherence only in spontaneously hypertensive rats. Thus vasoconstrictor intensities of renal sympathetic nerve activity impaired the dynamic autoregulatory adjustments of the renal vasculature to oscillations in arterial pressure. Renal denervation increased renal blood flow variability in spontaneously hypertensive rats and congestive heart failure rats. The contribution of vasoconstrictor intensities of basal renal sympathetic nerve activity to limiting renal blood flow variability may be important in the stabilization of glomerular filtration rate.

A proxy for high-resolution regional reanalysis for the Southeast United States: assessment of precipitation variability in dynamically downscaled reanalyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stefanova, Lydia; Misra, Vasubandhu; Chan, Steven; Griffin, Melissa; O'Brien, James J.; Smith, Thomas J.

2012-01-01

We present an analysis of the seasonal, subseasonal, and diurnal variability of rainfall from COAPS Land- Atmosphere Regional Reanalysis for the Southeast at 10-km resolution (CLARReS10). Most of our assessment focuses on the representation of summertime subseasonal and diurnal variability.Summer precipitation in the Southeast United States is a particularly challenging modeling problem because of the variety of regional-scale phenomena, such as sea breeze, thunderstorms and squall lines, which are not adequately resolved in coarse atmospheric reanalyses but contribute significantly to the hydrological budget over the region. We find that the dynamically downscaled reanalyses are in good agreement with station and gridded observations in terms of both the relative seasonal distribution and the diurnal structure of precipitation, although total precipitation amounts tend to be systematically overestimated. The diurnal cycle of summer precipitation in the downscaled reanalyses is in very good agreement with station observations and a clear improvement both over their "parent" reanalyses and over newer-generation reanalyses. The seasonal cycle of precipitation is particularly well simulated in the Florida; this we attribute to the ability of the regional model to provide a more accurate representation of the spatial and temporal structure of finer-scale phenomena such as fronts and sea breezes. Over the northern portion of the domain summer precipitation in the downscaled reanalyses remains, as in the "parent" reanalyses, overestimated. Given the degree of success that dynamical downscaling of reanalyses demonstrates in the simulation of the characteristics of regional precipitation, its favorable comparison to conventional newer-generation reanalyses and its cost-effectiveness, we conclude that for the Southeast United states such downscaling is a viable proxy for high-resolution conventional reanalysis.

Control of AUVs using differential flatness theory and the derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigatos, Gerasimos; Raffo, Guilerme

2015-12-01

The paper proposes nonlinear control and filtering for Autonomous Underwater Vessels (AUVs) based on differential flatness theory and on the use of the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter. First, it is shown that the 6-DOF dynamic model of the AUV is a differentially flat one. This enables its transformation into the linear canonical (Brunovsky) form and facilitates the design of a state feedback controller. A problem that has to be dealt with is the uncertainty about the parameters of the AUV's dynamic model, as well the external perturbations which affect its motion. To cope with this, it is proposed to use a disturbance observer which is based on the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter. The considered filtering method consists of the standard Kalman Filter recursion applied on the linearized model of the vessel and of an inverse transformation based on differential flatness theory, which enables to obtain estimates of the state variables of the initial nonlinear model of the vessel. The Kalman Filter-based disturbance observer performs simultaneous estimation of the non-measurable state variables of the AUV and of the perturbation terms that affect its dynamics. By estimating such disturbances, their compensation is also succeeded through suitable modification of the feedback control input. The efficiency of the proposed AUV control and estimation scheme is confirmed through simulation experiments.

Optimal orbit transfer suitable for large flexible structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatterjee, Alok K.

1989-01-01

The problem of continuous low-thrust planar orbit transfer of large flexible structures is formulated as an optimal control problem with terminal state constraints. The dynamics of the spacecraft motion are treated as a point-mass central force field problem; the thrust-acceleration magnitude is treated as an additional state variable; and the rate of change of thrust-acceleration is treated as a control variable. To ensure smooth transfer, essential for flexible structures, an additional quadratic term is appended to the time cost functional. This term penalizes any abrupt change in acceleration. Numerical results are presented for the special case of a planar transfer.

Impact damage resistance of composite fuselage structure, part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dost, E. F.; Avery, W. B.; Ilcewicz, L. B.; Grande, D. H.; Coxon, B. R.

1992-01-01

The impact damage resistance of laminated composite transport aircraft fuselage structures was studied experimentally. A statistically based designed experiment was used to examine numerous material, laminate, structural, and extrinsic (e.g., impactor type) variables. The relative importance and quantitative measure of the effect of each variable and variable interactions on responses including impactor dynamic response, visibility, and internal damage state were determined. The study utilized 32 three-stiffener panels, each with a unique combination of material type, material forms, and structural geometry. Two manufacturing techniques, tow placement and tape lamination, were used to build panels representative of potential fuselage crown, keel, and lower side-panel designs. Various combinations of impactor variables representing various foreign-object-impact threats to the aircraft were examined. Impacts performed at different structural locations within each panel (e.g., skin midbay, stiffener attaching flange, etc.) were considered separate parallel experiments. The relationship between input variables, measured damage states, and structural response to this damage are presented including recommendations for materials and impact test methods for fuselage structure.

Dynamic physiological modeling for functional diffuse optical tomography

PubMed Central

Diamond, Solomon Gilbert; Huppert, Theodore J.; Kolehmainen, Ville; Franceschini, Maria Angela; Kaipio, Jari P.; Arridge, Simon R.; Boas, David A.

2009-01-01

Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) is a noninvasive imaging technology that is sensitive to local concentration changes in oxy- and deoxyhemoglobin. When applied to functional neuroimaging, DOT measures hemodynamics in the scalp and brain that reflect competing metabolic demands and cardiovascular dynamics. The diffuse nature of near-infrared photon migration in tissue and the multitude of physiological systems that affect hemodynamics motivate the use of anatomical and physiological models to improve estimates of the functional hemodynamic response. In this paper, we present a linear state-space model for DOT analysis that models the physiological fluctuations present in the data with either static or dynamic estimation. We demonstrate the approach by using auxiliary measurements of blood pressure variability and heart rate variability as inputs to model the background physiology in DOT data. We evaluate the improvements accorded by modeling this physiology on ten human subjects with simulated functional hemodynamic responses added to the baseline physiology. Adding physiological modeling with a static estimator significantly improved estimates of the simulated functional response, and further significant improvements were achieved with a dynamic Kalman filter estimator (paired t tests, n = 10, P < 0.05). These results suggest that physiological modeling can improve DOT analysis. The further improvement with the Kalman filter encourages continued research into dynamic linear modeling of the physiology present in DOT. Cardiovascular dynamics also affect the blood-oxygen-dependent (BOLD) signal in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). This state-space approach to DOT analysis could be extended to BOLD fMRI analysis, multimodal studies and real-time analysis. PMID:16242967

Life cycles of transient planetary waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nathan, Terrence

1993-01-01

In recent years there has been an increasing effort devoted to understanding the physical and dynamical processes that govern the global-scale circulation of the atmosphere. This effort has been motivated, in part, from: (1) a wealth of new satellite data; (2) an urgent need to assess the potential impact of chlorofluorocarbons on our climate; (3) an inadequate understanding of the interactions between the troposphere and stratosphere and the role that such interactions play in short and long-term climate variability; and (4) the realization that addressing changes in our global climate requires understanding the interactions among various components of the earth system. The research currently being carried out represents an effort to address some of these issues by carrying out studies that combine radiation, ozone, seasonal thermal forcing and dynamics. Satellite and ground-based data that is already available is being used to construct basic states for our analytical and numerical models. Significant accomplishments from 1991-1992 are presented and include the following: ozone-dynamics interaction; (2) periodic local forcing and low frequency variability; and (3) steady forcing and low frequency variability.

Higher temporal variability of forest breeding bird communities in fragmented landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boulinier, T.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Flather, C.H.; Pollock, K.H.

1998-01-01

Understanding the relationship between animal community dynamics and landscape structure has become a priority for biodiversity conservation. In particular, predicting the effects of habitat destruction that confine species to networks of small patches is an important prerequisite to conservation plan development. Theoretical models that predict the occurrence of species in fragmented landscapes, and relationships between stability and diversity do exist. However, reliable empirical investigations of the dynamics of biodiversity have been prevented by differences in species detection probabilities among landscapes. Using long-term data sampled at a large spatial scale in conjunction with a capture-recapture approach, we developed estimates of parameters of community changes over a 22-year period for forest breeding birds in selected areas of the eastern United States. We show that forest fragmentation was associated not only with a reduced number of forest bird species, but also with increased temporal variability in the number of species. This higher temporal variability was associated with higher local extinction and turnover rates. These results have major conservation implications. Moreover, the approach used provides a practical tool for the study of the dynamics of biodiversity.

Synchronization of strange non-chaotic attractors via unidirectional coupling of quasiperiodically-forced systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivaganesh, G.; Daniel Sweetlin, M.; Arulgnanam, A.

2016-07-01

In this paper, we present a numerical investigation on the robust synchronization phenomenon observed in a unidirectionally-coupled quasiperiodically-forced simple nonlinear electronic circuit system exhibiting strange non-chaotic attractors (SNAs) in its dynamics. The SNA obtained in the simple quasiperiodic system is characterized for its SNA behavior. Then, we studied the nature of the synchronized state in unidirectionally coupled SNAs by using the Master-Slave approach. The stability of the synchronized state is studied through the master stability functions (MSF) obtained for coupling different state variables of the drive and response system. The property of robust synchronization is analyzed for one type of coupling of the state variables through phase portraits, conditional lyapunov exponents and the Kaplan-Yorke dimension. The phenomenon of complete synchronization of SNAs via a unidirectional coupling scheme is reported for the first time.

Real-time visualization of the vibrational wavepacket dynamics in electronically excited pyrimidine via femtosecond time-resolved photoelectron imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuai; Long, Jinyou; Ling, Fengzi; Wang, Yanmei; Song, Xinli; Zhang, Song; Zhang, Bing

2017-07-01

The vibrational wavepacket dynamics at the very early stages of the S1-T1 intersystem crossing in photoexcited pyrimidine is visualized in real time by femtosecond time-resolved photoelectron imaging and time-resolved mass spectroscopy. A coherent superposition of the vibrational states is prepared by the femtosecond pump pulse at 315.3 nm, resulting in a vibrational wavepacket. The composition of the prepared wavepacket is directly identified by a sustained quantum beat superimposed on the parent-ion transient, possessing a frequency in accord with the energy separation between the 6a1 and 6b2 states. The dephasing time of the vibrational wavepacket is determined to be 82 ps. More importantly, the variable Franck-Condon factors between the wavepacket components and the dispersed cation vibrational levels are experimentally illustrated to identify the dark state and follow the energy-flow dynamics on the femtosecond time scale. The time-dependent intensities of the photoelectron peaks originated from the 6a1 vibrational state exhibit a clear quantum beating pattern with similar periodicity but a phase shift of π rad with respect to those from the 6b2 state, offering an unambiguous picture of the restricted intramolecular vibrational energy redistribution dynamics in the 6a1/6b2 Fermi resonance.

Dynamic Brain Network Correlates of Spontaneous Fluctuations in Attention.

PubMed

Kucyi, Aaron; Hove, Michael J; Esterman, Michael; Hutchison, R Matthew; Valera, Eve M

2017-03-01

Human attention is intrinsically dynamic, with focus continuously shifting between elements of the external world and internal, self-generated thoughts. Communication within and between large-scale brain networks also fluctuates spontaneously from moment to moment. However, the behavioral relevance of dynamic functional connectivity and possible link with attentional state shifts is unknown. We used a unique approach to examine whether brain network dynamics reflect spontaneous fluctuations in moment-to-moment behavioral variability, a sensitive marker of attentional state. Nineteen healthy adults were instructed to tap their finger every 600 ms while undergoing fMRI. This novel, but simple, approach allowed us to isolate moment-to-moment fluctuations in behavioral variability related to attention, independent of common confounds in cognitive tasks (e.g., stimulus changes, response inhibition). Spontaneously increasing tap variance ("out-of-the-zone" attention) was associated with increasing activation in dorsal-attention and salience network regions, whereas decreasing tap variance ("in-the-zone" attention) was marked by increasing activation of default mode network (DMN) regions. Independent of activation, tap variance representing out-of-the-zone attention was also time-locked to connectivity both within DMN and between DMN and salience network regions. These results provide novel mechanistic data on the understudied neural dynamics of everyday, moment-to-moment attentional fluctuations, elucidating the behavioral importance of spontaneous, transient coupling within and between attention-relevant networks. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A Linear Dynamical Systems Approach to Streamflow Reconstruction Reveals History of Regime Shifts in Northern Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Hung T. T.; Galelli, Stefano

2018-03-01

Catchment dynamics is not often modeled in streamflow reconstruction studies; yet, the streamflow generation process depends on both catchment state and climatic inputs. To explicitly account for this interaction, we contribute a linear dynamic model, in which streamflow is a function of both catchment state (i.e., wet/dry) and paleoclimatic proxies. The model is learned using a novel variant of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and it is used with a paleo drought record—the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas—to reconstruct 406 years of streamflow for the Ping River (northern Thailand). Results for the instrumental period show that the dynamic model has higher accuracy than conventional linear regression; all performance scores improve by 45-497%. Furthermore, the reconstructed trajectory of the state variable provides valuable insights about the catchment history—e.g., regime-like behavior—thereby complementing the information contained in the reconstructed streamflow time series. The proposed technique can replace linear regression, since it only requires information on streamflow and climatic proxies (e.g., tree-rings, drought indices); furthermore, it is capable of readily generating stochastic streamflow replicates. With a marginal increase in computational requirements, the dynamic model brings more desirable features and value to streamflow reconstructions.

Attracting Dynamics of Frontal Cortex Ensembles during Memory-Guided Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Seamans, Jeremy K.; Durstewitz, Daniel

2011-01-01

A common theoretical view is that attractor-like properties of neuronal dynamics underlie cognitive processing. However, although often proposed theoretically, direct experimental support for the convergence of neural activity to stable population patterns as a signature of attracting states has been sparse so far, especially in higher cortical areas. Combining state space reconstruction theorems and statistical learning techniques, we were able to resolve details of anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) multiple single-unit activity (MSUA) ensemble dynamics during a higher cognitive task which were not accessible previously. The approach worked by constructing high-dimensional state spaces from delays of the original single-unit firing rate variables and the interactions among them, which were then statistically analyzed using kernel methods. We observed cognitive-epoch-specific neural ensemble states in ACC which were stable across many trials (in the sense of being predictive) and depended on behavioral performance. More interestingly, attracting properties of these cognitively defined ensemble states became apparent in high-dimensional expansions of the MSUA spaces due to a proper unfolding of the neural activity flow, with properties common across different animals. These results therefore suggest that ACC networks may process different subcomponents of higher cognitive tasks by transiting among different attracting states. PMID:21625577

An opinion-driven behavioral dynamics model for addictive behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Thomas W.; Finley, Patrick D.; Apelberg, Benjamin J.; Ambrose, Bridget K.; Brodsky, Nancy S.; Brown, Theresa J.; Husten, Corinne; Glass, Robert J.

2015-04-01

We present a model of behavioral dynamics that combines a social network-based opinion dynamics model with behavioral mapping. The behavioral component is discrete and history-dependent to represent situations in which an individual's behavior is initially driven by opinion and later constrained by physiological or psychological conditions that serve to maintain the behavior. Individuals are modeled as nodes in a social network connected by directed edges. Parameter sweeps illustrate model behavior and the effects of individual parameters and parameter interactions on model results. Mapping a continuous opinion variable into a discrete behavioral space induces clustering on directed networks. Clusters provide targets of opportunity for influencing the network state; however, the smaller the network the greater the stochasticity and potential variability in outcomes. This has implications both for behaviors that are influenced by close relationships verses those influenced by societal norms and for the effectiveness of strategies for influencing those behaviors.

Slow Dynamics Model of Compressed Air Energy Storage and Battery Storage Technologies for Automatic Generation Control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnan, Venkat; Das, Trishna

Increasing variable generation penetration and the consequent increase in short-term variability makes energy storage technologies look attractive, especially in the ancillary market for providing frequency regulation services. This paper presents slow dynamics model for compressed air energy storage and battery storage technologies that can be used in automatic generation control studies to assess the system frequency response and quantify the benefits from storage technologies in providing regulation service. The paper also represents the slow dynamics model of the power system integrated with storage technologies in a complete state space form. The storage technologies have been integrated to the IEEE 24more » bus system with single area, and a comparative study of various solution strategies including transmission enhancement and combustion turbine have been performed in terms of generation cycling and frequency response performance metrics.« less

Application of dynamic programming to control khuzestan water resources system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jamshidi, M.; Heidari, M.

1977-01-01

An approximate optimization technique based on discrete dynamic programming called discrete differential dynamic programming (DDDP), is employed to obtain the near optimal operation policies of a water resources system in the Khuzestan Province of Iran. The technique makes use of an initial nominal state trajectory for each state variable, and forms corridors around the trajectories. These corridors represent a set of subdomains of the entire feasible domain. Starting with such a set of nominal state trajectories, improvements in objective function are sought within the corridors formed around them. This leads to a set of new nominal trajectories upon which more improvements may be sought. Since optimization is confined to a set of subdomains, considerable savings in memory and computer time are achieved over that of conventional dynamic programming. The Kuzestan water resources system considered in this study is located in southwest Iran, and consists of two rivers, three reservoirs, three hydropower plants, and three irrigable areas. Data and cost benefit functions for the analysis were obtained either from the historical records or from similar studies. ?? 1977.

Point process modeling and estimation: Advances in the analysis of dynamic neural spiking data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Xinyi

2016-08-01

A common interest of scientists in many fields is to understand the relationship between the dynamics of a physical system and the occurrences of discrete events within such physical system. Seismologists study the connection between mechanical vibrations of the Earth and the occurrences of earthquakes so that future earthquakes can be better predicted. Astrophysicists study the association between the oscillating energy of celestial regions and the emission of photons to learn the Universe's various objects and their interactions. Neuroscientists study the link between behavior and the millisecond-timescale spike patterns of neurons to understand higher brain functions. Such relationships can often be formulated within the framework of state-space models with point process observations. The basic idea is that the dynamics of the physical systems are driven by the dynamics of some stochastic state variables and the discrete events we observe in an interval are noisy observations with distributions determined by the state variables. This thesis proposes several new methodological developments that advance the framework of state-space models with point process observations at the intersection of statistics and neuroscience. In particular, we develop new methods 1) to characterize the rhythmic spiking activity using history-dependent structure, 2) to model population spike activity using marked point process models, 3) to allow for real-time decision making, and 4) to take into account the need for dimensionality reduction for high-dimensional state and observation processes. We applied these methods to a novel problem of tracking rhythmic dynamics in the spiking of neurons in the subthalamic nucleus of Parkinson's patients with the goal of optimizing placement of deep brain stimulation electrodes. We developed a decoding algorithm that can make decision in real-time (for example, to stimulate the neurons or not) based on various sources of information present in population spiking data. Lastly, we proposed a general three-step paradigm that allows us to relate behavioral outcomes of various tasks to simultaneously recorded neural activity across multiple brain areas, which is a step towards closed-loop therapies for psychological diseases using real-time neural stimulation. These methods are suitable for real-time implementation for content-based feedback experiments.

The Anomalous Low State of LMC X-3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smale, A. P.; Boyd, P. T.; Markwardt, C. B.

2009-01-01

Archival RXTE ASM and PCA observations of the black hole binary LMC X-3 reveal a dramatic and extended low state lasting from December 8, 2003 until March 18, 2004, unprecedented both in its Low luminosity (Lx(2-10keV)=4.2x 1035 ergs s-1, approximately 4 times fainter than ever before seen from LMC X-3 in its low/hard state, and representing 0.15% of its X-ray luminosity during the high/soft state); and Long duration (approximately equal to 100 days, as compared with 5-20 days for 'normal' low/hard state excursions). During this anomalous low state no significant variability is observed on timescales of days-weeks, and the spectrum is well described by a simple power law with index 1.7 plus or minus 0.2. We examine the variability characteristics of LMC X-3 before and after this event using conventional and topological methods, and show that with the exception of the anomalous low state itself the long-term behavior of the source in topological phase space can be completely described in terms of a well-understood nonlinear dynamics system known as the Duffing oscillator, implying that the accretion disk in LMC X-3 is a driven, dissipative system with two solutions competing for control of its time evolution. This work shows that dynamical information and constraints revealed by topological analysis methods can provide a valuable addition to traditional studies of accretion disk behavior.

Dynamic state estimation assisted power system monitoring and protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Yinan

The advent of phasor measurement units (PMUs) has unlocked several novel methods to monitor, control, and protect bulk electric power systems. This thesis introduces the concept of "Dynamic State Estimation" (DSE), aided by PMUs, for wide-area monitoring and protection of power systems. Unlike traditional State Estimation where algebraic variables are estimated from system measurements, DSE refers to a process to estimate the dynamic states associated with synchronous generators. This thesis first establishes the viability of using particle filtering as a technique to perform DSE in power systems. The utility of DSE for protection and wide-area monitoring are then shown as potential novel applications. The work is presented as a collection of several journal and conference papers. In the first paper, we present a particle filtering approach to dynamically estimate the states of a synchronous generator in a multi-machine setting considering the excitation and prime mover control systems. The second paper proposes an improved out-of-step detection method for generators by means of angular difference. The generator's rotor angle is estimated with a particle filter-based dynamic state estimator and the angular separation is then calculated by combining the raw local phasor measurements with this estimate. The third paper introduces a particle filter-based dual estimation method for tracking the dynamic states of a synchronous generator. It considers the situation where the field voltage measurements are not readily available. The particle filter is modified to treat the field voltage as an unknown input which is sequentially estimated along with the other dynamic states. The fourth paper proposes a novel framework for event detection based on energy functions. The key idea is that any event in the system will leave a signature in WAMS data-sets. It is shown that signatures for four broad classes of disturbance events are buried in the components that constitute the energy function for the system. This establishes a direct correspondence (or mapping) between an event and certain component(s) of the energy function. The last paper considers the dynamic latency effect when the measurements and estimated dynamics are transmitted from remote ends to a centralized location through the networks.

Optimal control in microgrid using multi-agent reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Li, Fu-Dong; Wu, Min; He, Yong; Chen, Xin

2012-11-01

This paper presents an improved reinforcement learning method to minimize electricity costs on the premise of satisfying the power balance and generation limit of units in a microgrid with grid-connected mode. Firstly, the microgrid control requirements are analyzed and the objective function of optimal control for microgrid is proposed. Then, a state variable "Average Electricity Price Trend" which is used to express the most possible transitions of the system is developed so as to reduce the complexity and randomicity of the microgrid, and a multi-agent architecture including agents, state variables, action variables and reward function is formulated. Furthermore, dynamic hierarchical reinforcement learning, based on change rate of key state variable, is established to carry out optimal policy exploration. The analysis shows that the proposed method is beneficial to handle the problem of "curse of dimensionality" and speed up learning in the unknown large-scale world. Finally, the simulation results under JADE (Java Agent Development Framework) demonstrate the validity of the presented method in optimal control for a microgrid with grid-connected mode. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulations of the Boreal Winter Upper Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere With Meteorological Specifications in SD-WACCM-X

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sassi, Fabrizio; Siskind, David E.; Tate, Jennifer L.; Liu, Han-Li; Randall, Cora E.

2018-04-01

We investigate the benefit of high-altitude nudging in simulations of the structure and short-term variability of the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (UMLT) dynamical meteorology during boreal winter, specifically around the time of the January 2009 sudden stratospheric warming. We compare simulations using the Specified Dynamics, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, extended version, nudged using atmospheric specifications generated by the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System, Advanced Level Physics High Altitude. Two sets of simulations are carried out: one uses nudging over a vertical domain from 0 to 90 km; the other uses nudging over a vertical domain from 0 to 50 km. The dynamical behavior is diagnosed from ensemble mean and standard deviation of winds, temperature, and zonal accelerations due to resolved and parameterized waves. We show that the dynamical behavior of the UMLT is quite different in the two experiments, with prominent differences in the structure and variability of constituent transport. We compare the results of our numerical experiments to observations of carbon monoxide by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer to show that the high-altitude nudging is capable of reproducing with high fidelity the observed variability, and traveling planetary waves are a crucial component of the dynamics. The results of this study indicate that to capture the key physical processes that affect short-term variability (defined as the atmospheric behavior within about 10 days of a stratospheric warming) in the UMLT, specification of the atmospheric state in the stratosphere alone is not sufficient, and upper atmospheric specifications are needed.

The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

2017-06-01

Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

Markovian robots: Minimal navigation strategies for active particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nava, Luis Gómez; Großmann, Robert; Peruani, Fernando

2018-04-01

We explore minimal navigation strategies for active particles in complex, dynamical, external fields, introducing a class of autonomous, self-propelled particles which we call Markovian robots (MR). These machines are equipped with a navigation control system (NCS) that triggers random changes in the direction of self-propulsion of the robots. The internal state of the NCS is described by a Boolean variable that adopts two values. The temporal dynamics of this Boolean variable is dictated by a closed Markov chain—ensuring the absence of fixed points in the dynamics—with transition rates that may depend exclusively on the instantaneous, local value of the external field. Importantly, the NCS does not store past measurements of this value in continuous, internal variables. We show that despite the strong constraints, it is possible to conceive closed Markov chain motifs that lead to nontrivial motility behaviors of the MR in one, two, and three dimensions. By analytically reducing the complexity of the NCS dynamics, we obtain an effective description of the long-time motility behavior of the MR that allows us to identify the minimum requirements in the design of NCS motifs and transition rates to perform complex navigation tasks such as adaptive gradient following, detection of minima or maxima, or selection of a desired value in a dynamical, external field. We put these ideas in practice by assembling a robot that operates by the proposed minimalistic NCS to evaluate the robustness of MR, providing a proof of concept that is possible to navigate through complex information landscapes with such a simple NCS whose internal state can be stored in one bit. These ideas may prove useful for the engineering of miniaturized robots.

Dynamic muscle O2 saturation response is impaired during major non-cardiac surgery despite goal-directed haemodynamic therapy.

PubMed

Feldheiser, A; Hunsicker, O; Kaufner, L; Köhler, J; Sieglitz, H; Casans Francés, R; Wernecke, K-D; Sehouli, J; Spies, C

2016-03-01

Near-infrared spectroscopy combined with a vascular occlusion test (VOT) could indicate an impairment of microvascular reactivity (MVR) in septic patients by detecting changes in dynamic variables of muscle O2 saturation (StO2). However, in the perioperative context the consequences of surgical trauma on dynamic variables of muscle StO2 as indicators of MVR are still unknown. This study is a sub-analysis of a randomised controlled trial in patients with metastatic primary ovarian cancer undergoing debulking surgery, during which a goal-directed haemodynamic algorithm was applied using oesophageal Doppler. During a 3 min VOT, near-infrared spectroscopy was used to assess dynamic variables arising from changes in muscle StO2. At the beginning of surgery, values of desaturation and recovery slope were comparable to values obtained in healthy volunteers. During the course of surgery, both desaturation and recovery slope showed a gradual decrease. Concomitantly, the study population underwent a transition to a surgically induced systemic inflammatory response state shown by a gradual increase in norepinephrine administration, heart rate, and Interleukin-6, with a peak immediately after the end of surgery. Higher rates of norepinephrine and a higher heart rate were related to a faster decline in StO2 during vascular occlusion. Using near-infrared spectroscopy combined with a VOT during surgery showed a gradual deterioration of MVR in patients treated with optimal haemodynamic care. The deterioration of MVR was accompanied by the transition to a surgically induced systemic inflammatory response state. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Emotion dynamics and tinnitus: Daily life data from the “TrackYourTinnitus” application

PubMed Central

Probst, Thomas; Pryss, Rüdiger; Langguth, Berthold; Schlee, Winfried

2016-01-01

It is well established that emotions influence tinnitus, but the role of emotion dynamics remains unclear. The present study investigated emotion dynamics in N = 306 users of the “TrackYourTinnitus” application who completed the Mini-Tinnitus Questionnaire (Mini-TQ) at one assessment point and provided complete data on at least five assessment points for the following state variables: tinnitus loudness, tinnitus distress, arousal, valence. The repeated arousal and valence ratings were used for two operationalizations of emotion dynamics: intra-individual variability of affect intensity (pulse) as well as intra-individual variability of affect quality (spin). Pearson correlation coefficients showed that the Mini-TQ was positively correlated with pulse (r = 0.19; p < 0.05) as well as with spin (r = 0.12; p < 0.05). Multilevel models revealed the following results: increases in tinnitus loudness were more strongly associated with increases in tinnitus distress at higher levels of pulse as well as at higher levels of spin (both p < 0.05), whereby increases in tinnitus loudness correlated even stronger with increases in tinnitus distress when both pulse as well as spin were high (p < 0.05). Moreover, increases in spin were associated with a less favorable time course of tinnitus loudness (p < 0.05). To conclude, equilibrating emotion dynamics might be a potential target in the prevention and treatment of tinnitus. PMID:27488227

Carbon fluxes in tropical forest ecosystems: the value of Eddy-covariance data for individual-based dynamic forest gap models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roedig, Edna; Cuntz, Matthias; Huth, Andreas

2015-04-01

The effects of climatic inter-annual fluctuations and human activities on the global carbon cycle are uncertain and currently a major issue in global vegetation models. Individual-based forest gap models, on the other hand, model vegetation structure and dynamics on a small spatial (<100 ha) and large temporal scale (>1000 years). They are well-established tools to reproduce successions of highly-diverse forest ecosystems and investigate disturbances as logging or fire events. However, the parameterizations of the relationships between short-term climate variability and forest model processes are often uncertain in these models (e.g. daily variable temperature and gross primary production (GPP)) and cannot be constrained from forest inventories. We addressed this uncertainty and linked high-resolution Eddy-covariance (EC) data with an individual-based forest gap model. The forest model FORMIND was applied to three diverse tropical forest sites in the Amazonian rainforest. Species diversity was categorized into three plant functional types. The parametrizations for the steady-state of biomass and forest structure were calibrated and validated with different forest inventories. The parameterizations of relationships between short-term climate variability and forest model processes were evaluated with EC-data on a daily time step. The validations of the steady-state showed that the forest model could reproduce biomass and forest structures from forest inventories. The daily estimations of carbon fluxes showed that the forest model reproduces GPP as observed by the EC-method. Daily fluctuations of GPP were clearly reflected as a response to daily climate variability. Ecosystem respiration remains a challenge on a daily time step due to a simplified soil respiration approach. In the long-term, however, the dynamic forest model is expected to estimate carbon budgets for highly-diverse tropical forests where EC-measurements are rare.

Aircraft Pitch Control With Fixed Order LQ Compensators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, James; Ashokkumar, C. R.; Homaifar, Abdollah

1997-01-01

This paper considers a given set of fixed order compensators for aircraft pitch control problem. By augmenting compensator variables to the original state equations of the aircraft, a new dynamic model is considered to seek a LQ controller. While the fixed order compensators can achieve a set of desired poles in a specified region, LQ formulation provides the inherent robustness properties. The time response for ride quality is significantly improved with a set of dynamic compensators.

Aircraft Pitch Control with Fixed Order LQ Compensators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, James; Ashokkumar, Cr.; Homaifar, A.

1997-01-01

This paper considers a given set of fixed order compensators for aircraft pitch control problem. By augmenting compensator variables to the original state equations of the aircraft, a new dynamic model is considered to seek a LQ controller. While the fixed order compensators can achieve a set of desired poles in a specified region, LQ formulation provides the inherent robustness properties. The time response for ride quality is significantly improved with a set of dynamic compensators.

State-Dependent Decoding Algorithms Improve the Performance of a Bidirectional BMI in Anesthetized Rats.

PubMed

De Feo, Vito; Boi, Fabio; Safaai, Houman; Onken, Arno; Panzeri, Stefano; Vato, Alessandro

2017-01-01

Brain-machine interfaces (BMIs) promise to improve the quality of life of patients suffering from sensory and motor disabilities by creating a direct communication channel between the brain and the external world. Yet, their performance is currently limited by the relatively small amount of information that can be decoded from neural activity recorded form the brain. We have recently proposed that such decoding performance may be improved when using state-dependent decoding algorithms that predict and discount the large component of the trial-to-trial variability of neural activity which is due to the dependence of neural responses on the network's current internal state. Here we tested this idea by using a bidirectional BMI to investigate the gain in performance arising from using a state-dependent decoding algorithm. This BMI, implemented in anesthetized rats, controlled the movement of a dynamical system using neural activity decoded from motor cortex and fed back to the brain the dynamical system's position by electrically microstimulating somatosensory cortex. We found that using state-dependent algorithms that tracked the dynamics of ongoing activity led to an increase in the amount of information extracted form neural activity by 22%, with a consequently increase in all of the indices measuring the BMI's performance in controlling the dynamical system. This suggests that state-dependent decoding algorithms may be used to enhance BMIs at moderate computational cost.

Introducing Co-Activation Pattern Metrics to Quantify Spontaneous Brain Network Dynamics

PubMed Central

Chen, Jingyuan E.; Chang, Catie; Greicius, Michael D.; Glover, Gary H.

2015-01-01

Recently, fMRI researchers have begun to realize that the brain's intrinsic network patterns may undergo substantial changes during a single resting state (RS) scan. However, despite the growing interest in brain dynamics, metrics that can quantify the variability of network patterns are still quite limited. Here, we first introduce various quantification metrics based on the extension of co-activation pattern (CAP) analysis, a recently proposed point-process analysis that tracks state alternations at each individual time frame and relies on very few assumptions; then apply these proposed metrics to quantify changes of brain dynamics during a sustained 2-back working memory (WM) task compared to rest. We focus on the functional connectivity of two prominent RS networks, the default-mode network (DMN) and executive control network (ECN). We first demonstrate less variability of global Pearson correlations with respect to the two chosen networks using a sliding-window approach during WM task compared to rest; then we show that the macroscopic decrease in variations in correlations during a WM task is also well characterized by the combined effect of a reduced number of dominant CAPs, increased spatial consistency across CAPs, and increased fractional contributions of a few dominant CAPs. These CAP metrics may provide alternative and more straightforward quantitative means of characterizing brain network dynamics than time-windowed correlation analyses. PMID:25662866

USAF (United States Air Force) Stability and Control DATCOM (Data Compendium)

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-04-01

regression analysis involves the study of a group of variables to determine their effect on a given parameter. Because of the empirical nature of this...regression analysis of mathematical statistics. In general, a regression analysis involves the study of a group of variables to determine their effect on a...Excperiment, OSR TN 58-114, MIT Fluid Dynamics Research Group Rapt. 57-5, 1957. (U) 90. Kennet, H., and Ashley, H.: Review of Unsteady Aerodynamic Studies in

A unifying view of synchronization for data assimilation in complex nonlinear networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abarbanel, Henry D. I.; Shirman, Sasha; Breen, Daniel; Kadakia, Nirag; Rey, Daniel; Armstrong, Eve; Margoliash, Daniel

2017-12-01

Networks of nonlinear systems contain unknown parameters and dynamical degrees of freedom that may not be observable with existing instruments. From observable state variables, we want to estimate the connectivity of a model of such a network and determine the full state of the model at the termination of a temporal observation window during which measurements transfer information to a model of the network. The model state at the termination of a measurement window acts as an initial condition for predicting the future behavior of the network. This allows the validation (or invalidation) of the model as a representation of the dynamical processes producing the observations. Once the model has been tested against new data, it may be utilized as a predictor of responses to innovative stimuli or forcing. We describe a general framework for the tasks involved in the "inverse" problem of determining properties of a model built to represent measured output from physical, biological, or other processes when the measurements are noisy, the model has errors, and the state of the model is unknown when measurements begin. This framework is called statistical data assimilation and is the best one can do in estimating model properties through the use of the conditional probability distributions of the model state variables, conditioned on observations. There is a very broad arena of applications of the methods described. These include numerical weather prediction, properties of nonlinear electrical circuitry, and determining the biophysical properties of functional networks of neurons. Illustrative examples will be given of (1) estimating the connectivity among neurons with known dynamics in a network of unknown connectivity, and (2) estimating the biophysical properties of individual neurons in vitro taken from a functional network underlying vocalization in songbirds.

Multistate λ-local-elevation umbrella-sampling (MS-λ-LEUS): method and application to the complexation of cations by crown ethers.

PubMed

Bieler, Noah S; Tschopp, Jan P; Hünenberger, Philippe H

2015-06-09

An extension of the λ-local-elevation umbrella-sampling (λ-LEUS) scheme [ Bieler et al. J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2014 , 10 , 3006 ] is proposed to handle the multistate (MS) situation, i.e. the calculation of the relative free energies of multiple physical states based on a single simulation. The key element of the MS-λ-LEUS approach is to use a single coupling variable Λ controlling successive pairwise mutations between the states of interest in a cyclic fashion. The Λ variable is propagated dynamically as an extended-system variable, using a coordinate transformation with plateaus and a memory-based biasing potential as in λ-LEUS. Compared to other available MS schemes (one-step perturbation, enveloping distribution sampling and conventional λ-dynamics) the proposed method presents a number of important advantages, namely: (i) the physical states are visited explicitly and over finite time periods; (ii) the extent of unphysical space required to ensure transitions is kept minimal and, in particular, one-dimensional; (iii) the setup protocol solely requires the topologies of the physical states; and (iv) the method only requires limited modifications in a simulation code capable of handling two-state mutations. As an initial application, the absolute binding free energies of five alkali cations to three crown ethers in three different solvents are calculated. The results are found to reproduce qualitatively the main experimental trends and, in particular, the experimental selectivity of 18C6 for K(+) in water and methanol, which is interpreted in terms of opposing trends along the cation series between the solvation free energy of the cation and the direct electrostatic interactions within the complex.

Hot spot dynamics in carbon nanotube array devices.

PubMed

Engel, Michael; Steiner, Mathias; Seo, Jung-Woo T; Hersam, Mark C; Avouris, Phaedon

2015-03-11

We report on the dynamics of spatial temperature distributions in aligned semiconducting carbon nanotube array devices with submicrometer channel lengths. By using high-resolution optical microscopy in combination with electrical transport measurements, we observe under steady state bias conditions the emergence of time-variable, local temperature maxima with dimensions below 300 nm, and temperatures above 400 K. On the basis of time domain cross-correlation analysis, we investigate how the intensity fluctuations of the thermal radiation patterns are correlated with the overall device current. The analysis reveals the interdependence of electrical current fluctuations and time-variable hot spot formation that limits the overall device performance and, ultimately, may cause device degradation. The findings have implications for the future development of carbon nanotube-based technologies.

Defect-phase-dynamics approach to statistical domain-growth problem of clock models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawasaki, K.

1985-01-01

The growth of statistical domains in quenched Ising-like p-state clock models with p = 3 or more is investigated theoretically, reformulating the analysis of Ohta et al. (1982) in terms of a phase variable and studying the dynamics of defects introduced into the phase field when the phase variable becomes multivalued. The resulting defect/phase domain-growth equation is applied to the interpretation of Monte Carlo simulations in two dimensions (Kaski and Gunton, 1983; Grest and Srolovitz, 1984), and problems encountered in the analysis of related Potts models are discussed. In the two-dimensional case, the problem is essentially that of a purely dissipative Coulomb gas, with a sq rt t growth law complicated by vertex-pinning effects at small t.

77 FR 32081 - Marine Mammals; File No. 17236

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-31

... Robert A. Garrott, Ecology Department, Montana State University, 310 Lewis Hall, Bozeman, MT, 59717, has... evaluate how environmental variability and individual heterogeneity affects the population dynamics of... population in the Erebus Bay, McMurdo Sound, Ross Sea and White Island areas of Antarctica. Up to 425 adults...

Dynamics, Heat Transport, Spectral Composition and Acoustic Signatures of Mesoscale Variability in the Ocean

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

Eastward background flow EOS Equation of state GDEM Generalized Digital Environmental Model GRB Growth Rate Balance model HPCMP High Performance...the Naval Research Lab (NRL) Generalized Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ). This provides a realistic and detailed profile for a known turbulent

Identification of the protein folding transition state from molecular dynamics trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muff, S.; Caflisch, A.

2009-03-01

The rate of protein folding is governed by the transition state so that a detailed characterization of its structure is essential for understanding the folding process. In vitro experiments have provided a coarse-grained description of the folding transition state ensemble (TSE) of small proteins. Atomistic details could be obtained by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations but it is not straightforward to extract the TSE directly from the MD trajectories, even for small peptides. Here, the structures in the TSE are isolated by the cut-based free-energy profile (cFEP) using the network whose nodes and links are configurations sampled by MD and direct transitions among them, respectively. The cFEP is a barrier-preserving projection that does not require arbitrarily chosen progress variables. First, a simple two-dimensional free-energy surface is used to illustrate the successful determination of the TSE by the cFEP approach and to explain the difficulty in defining boundary conditions of the Markov state model for an entropically stabilized free-energy minimum. The cFEP is then used to extract the TSE of a β-sheet peptide with a complex free-energy surface containing multiple basins and an entropic region. In contrast, Markov state models with boundary conditions defined by projected variables and conventional histogram-based free-energy profiles are not able to identify the TSE of the β-sheet peptide.

Inferring Toxicological Responses of HepG2 Cells from ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Understanding the dynamic perturbation of cell states by chemicals can aid in for predicting their adverse effects. High-content imaging (HCI) was used to measure the state of HepG2 cells over three time points (1, 24, and 72 h) in response to 976 ToxCast chemicals for 10 different concentrations (0.39-200µM). Cell state was characterized by p53 activation (p53), c-Jun activation (SK), phospho-Histone H2A.x (OS), phospho-Histone H3 (MA), alpha tubulin (Mt), mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP), mitochondrial mass (MM), cell cycle arrest (CCA), nuclear size (NS) and cell number (CN). Dynamic cell state perturbations due to each chemical concentration were utilized to infer coarse-grained dependencies between cellular functions as Boolean networks (BNs). BNs were inferred from data in two steps. First, the data for each state variable were discretized into changed/active (> 1 standard deviation), and unchanged/inactive values. Second, the discretized data were used to learn Boolean relationships between variables. In our case, a BN is a wiring diagram between nodes that represent 10 previously described observable phenotypes. Functional relationships between nodes were represented as Boolean functions. We found that inferred BN show that HepG2 cell response is chemical and concentration specific. We observed presence of both point and cycle BN attractors. In addition, there are instances where Boolean functions were not found. We believe that this may be either

Evidence of organized intraseasonal convection linked to ocean dynamics in the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Addezio, Joseph M.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu

2018-01-01

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant driver of intraseasonal variability across the equatorial domain of the global ocean with alternating wet and dry bands that propagate eastward primarily between 5°N and 5°S. Past research has shown that MJOs impact the surface and subsurface variability of the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR) (55°E-65°E, 5°S-12°S) located in the southwest tropical Indian Ocean (SWTIO), but investigations of how SWTIO internal dynamics may play an important role in producing MJO events remain limited. This study uses Argo, in conjunction with several remote sensing and reanalysis products, to demonstrate that SWTIO oceanic dynamics, particularly barrier layer formation and near surface heat buildup, may be associated with MJO genesis between August and December of most years between 2005 and 2013. A total of eight SWTIO specific MJO events are observed, all occurring between August and December. Four of the eight events are correlated with positive SWTIO total heat content (THC) and barrier layer thickness (BLT) interannual anomalies. Two others formed over the SWTIO during times when only one of the variables was at or above their seasonal average, while two additional events occurred when both variables experienced negative interannual anomalies. Lacking complete 1:1 correlation between the hypothesized oceanic state and the identified SWTIO MJO events, we conclude that additional work is required to better understand when variability in key oceanic variables plays a primary role in regional MJO genesis or when other factors, such as atmospheric variability, are the dominate drivers.

Individual differences and time-varying features of modular brain architecture.

PubMed

Liao, Xuhong; Cao, Miao; Xia, Mingrui; He, Yong

2017-05-15

Recent studies have suggested that human brain functional networks are topologically organized into functionally specialized but inter-connected modules to facilitate efficient information processing and highly flexible cognitive function. However, these studies have mainly focused on group-level network modularity analyses using "static" functional connectivity approaches. How these extraordinary modular brain structures vary across individuals and spontaneously reconfigure over time remain largely unknown. Here, we employed multiband resting-state functional MRI data (N=105) from the Human Connectome Project and a graph-based modularity analysis to systematically investigate individual variability and dynamic properties in modular brain networks. We showed that the modular structures of brain networks dramatically vary across individuals, with higher modular variability primarily in the association cortex (e.g., fronto-parietal and attention systems) and lower variability in the primary systems. Moreover, brain regions spontaneously changed their module affiliations on a temporal scale of seconds, which cannot be simply attributable to head motion and sampling error. Interestingly, the spatial pattern of intra-subject dynamic modular variability largely overlapped with that of inter-subject modular variability, both of which were highly reproducible across repeated scanning sessions. Finally, the regions with remarkable individual/temporal modular variability were closely associated with network connectors and the number of cognitive components, suggesting a potential contribution to information integration and flexible cognitive function. Collectively, our findings highlight individual modular variability and the notable dynamic characteristics in large-scale brain networks, which enhance our understanding of the neural substrates underlying individual differences in a variety of cognition and behaviors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exhibit D modular design attitude control system study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chichester, F.

1984-01-01

A dynamically equivalent four body approximation of the NASTRAN finite element model supplied for hybrid deployable truss to support the digital computer simulation of the ten body model of the flexible space platform that incorporates the four body truss model were investigated. Coefficients for sensitivity of state variables of the linearized model of the three axes rotational dynamics of the prototype flexible spacecraft were generated with respect to the model's parameters. Software changes required to accommodate addition of another rigid body to the five body model of the rotational dynamics of the prototype flexible spacecraft were evaluated.

A novel framework to simulating non-stationary, non-linear, non-Normal hydrological time series using Markov Switching Autoregressive Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkel, C.; Paroli, R.; Spezia, L.; Tetzlaff, D.; Soulsby, C.

2012-12-01

In this paper we present a novel model framework using the class of Markov Switching Autoregressive Models (MSARMs) to examine catchments as complex stochastic systems that exhibit non-stationary, non-linear and non-Normal rainfall-runoff and solute dynamics. Hereby, MSARMs are pairs of stochastic processes, one observed and one unobserved, or hidden. We model the unobserved process as a finite state Markov chain and assume that the observed process, given the hidden Markov chain, is conditionally autoregressive, which means that the current observation depends on its recent past (system memory). The model is fully embedded in a Bayesian analysis based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for model selection and uncertainty assessment. Hereby, the autoregressive order and the dimension of the hidden Markov chain state-space are essentially self-selected. The hidden states of the Markov chain represent unobserved levels of variability in the observed process that may result from complex interactions of hydroclimatic variability on the one hand and catchment characteristics affecting water and solute storage on the other. To deal with non-stationarity, additional meteorological and hydrological time series along with a periodic component can be included in the MSARMs as covariates. This extension allows identification of potential underlying drivers of temporal rainfall-runoff and solute dynamics. We applied the MSAR model framework to streamflow and conservative tracer (deuterium and oxygen-18) time series from an intensively monitored 2.3 km2 experimental catchment in eastern Scotland. Statistical time series analysis, in the form of MSARMs, suggested that the streamflow and isotope tracer time series are not controlled by simple linear rules. MSARMs showed that the dependence of current observations on past inputs observed by transport models often in form of the long-tailing of travel time and residence time distributions can be efficiently explained by non-stationarity either of the system input (climatic variability) and/or the complexity of catchment storage characteristics. The statistical model is also capable of reproducing short (event) and longer-term (inter-event) and wet and dry dynamical "hydrological states". These reflect the non-linear transport mechanisms of flow pathways induced by transient climatic and hydrological variables and modified by catchment characteristics. We conclude that MSARMs are a powerful tool to analyze the temporal dynamics of hydrological data, allowing for explicit integration of non-stationary, non-linear and non-Normal characteristics.

Inferring the relative resilience of alternative states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Rojo, Carmen; Alvarez-Cobelas, Miguel; Rodrigo, Maria A.; Sanchez-Carrillo, Salvador

2013-01-01

Ecological systems may occur in alternative states that differ in ecological structures, functions and processes. Resilience is the measure of disturbance an ecological system can absorb before changing states. However, how the intrinsic structures and processes of systems that characterize their states affects their resilience remains unclear. We analyzed time series of phytoplankton communities at three sites in a floodplain in central Spain to assess the dominant frequencies or “temporal scales” in community dynamics and compared the patterns between a wet and a dry alternative state. The identified frequencies and cross-scale structures are expected to arise from positive feedbacks that are thought to reinforce processes in alternative states of ecological systems and regulate emergent phenomena such as resilience. Our analyses show a higher species richness and diversity but lower evenness in the dry state. Time series modeling revealed a decrease in the importance of short-term variability in the communities, suggesting that community dynamics slowed down in the dry relative to the wet state. The number of temporal scales at which community dynamics manifested, and the explanatory power of time series models, was lower in the dry state. The higher diversity, reduced number of temporal scales and the lower explanatory power of time series models suggest that species dynamics tended to be more stochastic in the dry state. From a resilience perspective our results highlight a paradox: increasing species richness may not necessarily enhance resilience. The loss of cross-scale structure (i.e. the lower number of temporal scales) in community dynamics across sites suggests that resilience erodes during drought. Phytoplankton communities in the dry state are therefore likely less resilient than in the wet state. Our case study demonstrates the potential of time series modeling to assess attributes that mediate resilience. The approach is useful for assessing resilience of alternative states across ecological and other complex systems.

Dynamics of Longitudinal Impact in the Variable Cross-Section Rods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepanov, R.; Romenskyi, D.; Tsarenko, S.

2018-03-01

Dynamics of longitudinal impact in rods of variable cross-section is considered. Rods of various configurations are used as elements of power pulse systems. There is no single method to the construction of a mathematical model of longitudinal impact on rods. The creation of a general method for constructing a mathematical model of longitudinal impact for rods of variable cross-section is the goal of the article. An elastic rod is considered with a cross-sectional area varying in powers of law from the longitudinal coordinate. The solution of the wave equation is obtained using the Fourier method. Special functions are introduced on the basis of recurrence relations for Bessel functions for solving boundary value problems. The expression for the square of the norm is obtained taking into account the orthogonality property of the eigen functions with weight. For example, the impact of an inelastic mass along the wide end of a conical rod is considered. The expressions for the displacements, forces and stresses of the rod sections are obtained for the cases of sudden velocity communication and the application of force. The proposed mathematical model makes it possible to carry out investigations of the stress-strain state in rods of variable and constant cross-section for various conditions of dynamic effects.

The hydrological effects of varying vegetation characteristics in a temperate water-limited basin: Development of the dynamic Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (dBCP) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qiang; McVicar, Tim R.; Yang, Zhifeng; Donohue, Randall J.; Liang, Liqiao; Yang, Yuting

2016-12-01

Vegetation patterns are affected by water availability, which, in turn, influences the hydrological partitioning and regional water balance, especially in water-limited regions. Considering the important role of vegetation in partitioning the catchment water yield, the recently developed Budyko-Choudhury-Porporato (or BCP) model incorporated Porporato's model of key ecohydrological processes into Choudury's form of the Budyko hydroclimatic framework. Here we extend the steady state BCP model by incorporating dynamic ecohydrological processes into it and combining it with a typical bucket soil water balance model (resulting in the dynamic BCP, or dBCP, model). The dBCP model is used here to assess the impacts of vegetation on the water balance in a temperate water-limited basin (i.e., the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in north China), where growing season phenology is primarily constrained by low temperatures. The results show that: (i) the incorporation of dynamic growing season (fs) and dynamic effective rooting depth (Ze) conditions into the dBCP model improves results when compared to the original BCP model; (ii) dBCP model's results vary depending on time-step used (i.e., we tested mean-annual to monthly), which reflected the influence of catchment variables, e.g., catchment area, catchment-average air temperature, dryness index and Ze; and (iii) actual evapotranspiration (E) is more sensitive to changes in mean storm depth (α), followed by P, Ze, and Ep. When taking into account observed variability of each of four ecohydrological variables, changes in Ze cause the greatest variability in E, generally followed by variability in P and α, and then Ep. The dBCP results indicate that incorporating dynamic ecohydrological processes into the Budyko framework can improve the estimation of inter-annual variability of the regional water balance. This can help to understand the water requirement and to establish suitable water management strategies to adapt to climate change in the YRB. The dBCP model has modest forcing data requirements and can be applied to other basins globally.

Combination of Markov state models and kinetic networks for the analysis of molecular dynamics simulations of peptide folding.

PubMed

Radford, Isolde H; Fersht, Alan R; Settanni, Giovanni

2011-06-09

Atomistic molecular dynamics simulations of the TZ1 beta-hairpin peptide have been carried out using an implicit model for the solvent. The trajectories have been analyzed using a Markov state model defined on the projections along two significant observables and a kinetic network approach. The Markov state model allowed for an unbiased identification of the metastable states of the system, and provided the basis for commitment probability calculations performed on the kinetic network. The kinetic network analysis served to extract the main transition state for folding of the peptide and to validate the results from the Markov state analysis. The combination of the two techniques allowed for a consistent and concise characterization of the dynamics of the peptide. The slowest relaxation process identified is the exchange between variably folded and denatured species, and the second slowest process is the exchange between two different subsets of the denatured state which could not be otherwise identified by simple inspection of the projected trajectory. The third slowest process is the exchange between a fully native and a partially folded intermediate state characterized by a native turn with a proximal backbone H-bond, and frayed side-chain packing and termini. The transition state for the main folding reaction is similar to the intermediate state, although a more native like side-chain packing is observed.

Chronnectome fingerprinting: Identifying individuals and predicting higher cognitive functions using dynamic brain connectivity patterns.

PubMed

Liu, Jin; Liao, Xuhong; Xia, Mingrui; He, Yong

2018-02-01

The human brain is a large, interacting dynamic network, and its architecture of coupling among brain regions varies across time (termed the "chronnectome"). However, very little is known about whether and how the dynamic properties of the chronnectome can characterize individual uniqueness, such as identifying individuals as a "fingerprint" of the brain. Here, we employed multiband resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data from the Human Connectome Project (N = 105) and a sliding time-window dynamic network analysis approach to systematically examine individual time-varying properties of the chronnectome. We revealed stable and remarkable individual variability in three dynamic characteristics of brain connectivity (i.e., strength, stability, and variability), which was mainly distributed in three higher order cognitive systems (i.e., default mode, dorsal attention, and fronto-parietal) and in two primary systems (i.e., visual and sensorimotor). Intriguingly, the spatial patterns of these dynamic characteristics of brain connectivity could successfully identify individuals with high accuracy and could further significantly predict individual higher cognitive performance (e.g., fluid intelligence and executive function), which was primarily contributed by the higher order cognitive systems. Together, our findings highlight that the chronnectome captures inherent functional dynamics of individual brain networks and provides implications for individualized characterization of health and disease. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Calibration of a complex activated sludge model for the full-scale wastewater treatment plant.

PubMed

Liwarska-Bizukojc, Ewa; Olejnik, Dorota; Biernacki, Rafal; Ledakowicz, Stanislaw

2011-08-01

In this study, the results of the calibration of the complex activated sludge model implemented in BioWin software for the full-scale wastewater treatment plant are presented. Within the calibration of the model, sensitivity analysis of its parameters and the fractions of carbonaceous substrate were performed. In the steady-state and dynamic calibrations, a successful agreement between the measured and simulated values of the output variables was achieved. Sensitivity analysis revealed that upon the calculations of normalized sensitivity coefficient (S(i,j)) 17 (steady-state) or 19 (dynamic conditions) kinetic and stoichiometric parameters are sensitive. Most of them are associated with growth and decay of ordinary heterotrophic organisms and phosphorus accumulating organisms. The rankings of ten most sensitive parameters established on the basis of the calculations of the mean square sensitivity measure (δ(msqr)j) indicate that irrespective of the fact, whether the steady-state or dynamic calibration was performed, there is an agreement in the sensitivity of parameters.

Thermoviscoplastic model with application to copper

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freed, Alan D.

1988-01-01

A viscoplastic model is developed which is applicable to anisothermal, cyclic, and multiaxial loading conditions. Three internal state variables are used in the model; one to account for kinematic effects, and the other two to account for isotropic effects. One of the isotropic variables is a measure of yield strength, while the other is a measure of limit strength. Each internal state variable evolves through a process of competition between strain hardening and recovery. There is no explicit coupling between dynamic and thermal recovery in any evolutionary equation, which is a useful simplification in the development of the model. The thermodynamic condition of intrinsic dissipation constrains the thermal recovery function of the model. Application of the model is made to copper, and cyclic experiments under isothermal, thermomechanical, and nonproportional loading conditions are considered. Correlations and predictions of the model are representative of observed material behavior.

Puffed-up but shaky selves: State self-esteem level and variability in narcissists.

PubMed

Geukes, Katharina; Nestler, Steffen; Hutteman, Roos; Dufner, Michael; Küfner, Albrecht C P; Egloff, Boris; Denissen, Jaap J A; Back, Mitja D

2017-05-01

Different theoretical conceptualizations characterize grandiose narcissists by high, yet fragile self-esteem. Empirical evidence, however, has been inconsistent, particularly regarding the relationship between narcissism and self-esteem fragility (i.e., self-esteem variability). Here, we aim at unraveling this inconsistency by disentangling the effects of two theoretically distinct facets of narcissism (i.e., admiration and rivalry) on the two aspects of state self-esteem (i.e., level and variability). We report on data from a laboratory-based and two field-based studies (total N = 596) in realistic social contexts, capturing momentary, daily, and weekly fluctuations of state self-esteem. To estimate unbiased effects of narcissism on the level and variability of self-esteem within one model, we applied mixed-effects location scale models. Results of the three studies and their meta-analytical integration indicated that narcissism is positively linked to self-esteem level and variability. When distinguishing between admiration and rivalry, however, an important dissociation was identified: Admiration was related to high (and rather stable) levels of state self-esteem, whereas rivalry was related to (rather low and) fragile self-esteem. Analyses on underlying processes suggest that effects of rivalry on self-esteem variability are based on stronger decreases in self-esteem from one assessment to the next, particularly after a perceived lack of social inclusion. The revealed differentiated effects of admiration and rivalry explain why the analysis of narcissism as a unitary concept has led to the inconsistent past findings and provide deeper insights into the intrapersonal dynamics of grandiose narcissism governing state self-esteem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Low-dimensional manifold of actin polymerization dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Floyd, Carlos; Jarzynski, Christopher; Papoian, Garegin

2017-12-01

Actin filaments are critical components of the eukaryotic cytoskeleton, playing important roles in a number of cellular functions, such as cell migration, organelle transport, and mechanosensation. They are helical polymers with a well-defined polarity, composed of globular subunits that bind nucleotides in one of three hydrolysis states (ATP, ADP-Pi, or ADP). Mean-field models of the dynamics of actin polymerization have succeeded in, among other things, determining the nucleotide profile of an average filament and resolving the mechanisms of accessory proteins. However, these models require numerical solution of a high-dimensional system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. By truncating a set of recursion equations, the Brooks-Carlsson (BC) model reduces dimensionality to 11, but it still remains nonlinear and does not admit an analytical solution, hence, significantly hindering understanding of its resulting dynamics. In this work, by taking advantage of the fast timescales of the hydrolysis states of the filament tips, we propose two model reduction schemes: the quasi steady-state approximation model is five-dimensional and nonlinear, whereas the constant tip (CT) model is five-dimensional and linear, resulting from the approximation that the tip states are not dynamic variables. We provide an exact solution of the CT model and use it to shed light on the dynamical behaviors of the full BC model, highlighting the relative ordering of the timescales of various collective processes, and explaining some unusual dependence of the steady-state behavior on initial conditions.

Synchronization of chaotic systems involving fractional operators of Liouville-Caputo type with variable-order

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coronel-Escamilla, A.; Gómez-Aguilar, J. F.; Torres, L.; Escobar-Jiménez, R. F.; Valtierra-Rodríguez, M.

2017-12-01

In this paper, we propose a state-observer-based approach to synchronize variable-order fractional (VOF) chaotic systems. In particular, this work is focused on complete synchronization with a so-called unidirectional master-slave topology. The master is described by a dynamical system in state-space representation whereas the slave is described by a state observer. The slave is composed of a master copy and a correction term which in turn is constituted of an estimation error and an appropriate gain that assures the synchronization. The differential equations of the VOF chaotic system are described by the Liouville-Caputo and Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo derivatives. Numerical simulations involving the synchronization of Rössler oscillators, Chua's systems and multi-scrolls are studied. The simulations show that different chaotic behaviors can be obtained if different smooths functions defined in the interval (0 , 1 ] are used as the variable order of the fractional derivatives. Furthermore, simulations show that the VOF chaotic systems can be synchronized.

Modelling multiple cycles of static and dynamic recrystallisation using a fully implicit isotropic material model based on dislocation density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jansen van Rensburg, Gerhardus J.; Kok, Schalk; Wilke, Daniel N.

2018-03-01

This paper presents the development and numerical implementation of a state variable based thermomechanical material model, intended for use within a fully implicit finite element formulation. Plastic hardening, thermal recovery and multiple cycles of recrystallisation can be tracked for single peak as well as multiple peak recrystallisation response. The numerical implementation of the state variable model extends on a J2 isotropic hypo-elastoplastic modelling framework. The complete numerical implementation is presented as an Abaqus UMAT and linked subroutines. Implementation is discussed with detailed explanation of the derivation and use of various sensitivities, internal state variable management and multiple recrystallisation cycle contributions. A flow chart explaining the proposed numerical implementation is provided as well as verification on the convergence of the material subroutine. The material model is characterised using two high temperature data sets for cobalt and copper. The results of finite element analyses using the material parameter values characterised on the copper data set are also presented.

Sliding mode control based on Kalman filter dynamic estimation of battery SOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Dongmeia; Hou, Enguang; Qiao, Xin; Liu, Guangmin

2018-06-01

Lithium-ion battery charge state of the accurate and rapid estimation of battery management system is the key technology. In this paper, an exponentially reaching law sliding-mode variable structure control algorithm based on Kalman filter is proposed to estimate the state of charge of Li-ion battery for the dynamic nonlinear system. The RC equivalent circuit model is established, and the model equation with specific structure is given. The proposed Kalman filter sliding mode structure is used to estimate the state of charge of the battery in the battery model, and the jitter effect can be avoided and the estimation performance can be improved. The simulation results show that the proposed Kalman filter sliding mode control has good accuracy in estimating the state of charge of the battery compared with the ordinary Kalman filter, and the error range is within 3%.

Enabling intelligent copernicus services for carbon and water balance modeling of boreal forest ecosystems - North State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Häme, Tuomas; Mutanen, Teemu; Rauste, Yrjö; Antropov, Oleg; Molinier, Matthieu; Quegan, Shaun; Kantzas, Euripides; Mäkelä, Annikki; Minunno, Francesco; Atli Benediktsson, Jon; Falco, Nicola; Arnason, Kolbeinn; Storvold, Rune; Haarpaintner, Jörg; Elsakov, Vladimir; Rasinmäki, Jussi

2015-04-01

The objective of project North State, funded by Framework Program 7 of the European Union, is to develop innovative data fusion methods that exploit the new generation of multi-source data from Sentinels and other satellites in an intelligent, self-learning framework. The remote sensing outputs are interfaced with state-of-the-art carbon and water flux models for monitoring the fluxes over boreal Europe to reduce current large uncertainties. This will provide a paradigm for the development of products for future Copernicus services. The models to be interfaced are a dynamic vegetation model and a light use efficiency model. We have identified four groups of variables that will be estimated with remote sensed data: land cover variables, forest characteristics, vegetation activity, and hydrological variables. The estimates will be used as model inputs and to validate the model outputs. The earth observation variables are computed as automatically as possible, with an objective to completely automatic estimation. North State has two sites for intensive studies in southern and northern Finland, respectively, one in Iceland and one in state Komi of Russia. Additionally, the model input variables will be estimated and models applied over European boreal and sub-arctic region from Ural Mountains to Iceland. The accuracy assessment of the earth observation variables will follow statistical sampling design. Model output predictions are compared to earth observation variables. Also flux tower measurements are applied in the model assessment. In the paper, results of hyperspectral, Sentinel-1, and Landsat data and their use in the models is presented. Also an example of a completely automatic land cover class prediction is reported.

Dynamics of Multistable States during Ongoing and Evoked Cortical Activity

PubMed Central

Mazzucato, Luca

2015-01-01

Single-trial analyses of ensemble activity in alert animals demonstrate that cortical circuits dynamics evolve through temporal sequences of metastable states. Metastability has been studied for its potential role in sensory coding, memory, and decision-making. Yet, very little is known about the network mechanisms responsible for its genesis. It is often assumed that the onset of state sequences is triggered by an external stimulus. Here we show that state sequences can be observed also in the absence of overt sensory stimulation. Analysis of multielectrode recordings from the gustatory cortex of alert rats revealed ongoing sequences of states, where single neurons spontaneously attain several firing rates across different states. This single-neuron multistability represents a challenge to existing spiking network models, where typically each neuron is at most bistable. We present a recurrent spiking network model that accounts for both the spontaneous generation of state sequences and the multistability in single-neuron firing rates. Each state results from the activation of neural clusters with potentiated intracluster connections, with the firing rate in each cluster depending on the number of active clusters. Simulations show that the model's ensemble activity hops among the different states, reproducing the ongoing dynamics observed in the data. When probed with external stimuli, the model predicts the quenching of single-neuron multistability into bistability and the reduction of trial-by-trial variability. Both predictions were confirmed in the data. Together, these results provide a theoretical framework that captures both ongoing and evoked network dynamics in a single mechanistic model. PMID:26019337

Earth observing satellite: Understanding the Earth as a system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soffen, Gerald

1990-01-01

There is now a plan for global studies which include two very large efforts. One is the International Geosphere/Biosphere Program (IGBP) sponsored by the International Council of Scientific Unions. The other initiative is Mission to Planet Earth, an unbrella program for doing three kinds of space missions. The major one is the Earth Observation Satellite (EOS). EOS is large polar orbiting satellites with heavy payloads. Two will be placed in orbit by NASA, one by the Japanese and one or two by ESA. The overall mission measurement objectives of EOS are summarized: (1) the global distribution of energy input to and energy output from the Earth; (2) the structure, state variables, composition, and dynamics of the atmosphere from the ground to the mesopause; (3) the physical and biological structure, state, composition, and dynamics of the land surface, including terrestrial and inland water ecosystems; (4) the rates, important sources and sinks, and key components and processes of the Earth's biogeochemical cycles; (5) the circulation, surface temperature, wind stress, sea state, and the biological activity of the oceans; (6) the extent, type, state, elevation, roughness, and dynamics of glaciers, ice sheets, snow and sea ice, and the liquid equivalent of snow in the global cryosphere; (7) the global rates, amounts, and distribution of precipitation; and (8) the dynamic motions of the Earth (geophysics) as a whole, including both rotational dynamics and the kinematic motions of the tectonic plates.

Reconstruction of normal forms by learning informed observation geometries from data.

PubMed

Yair, Or; Talmon, Ronen; Coifman, Ronald R; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G

2017-09-19

The discovery of physical laws consistent with empirical observations is at the heart of (applied) science and engineering. These laws typically take the form of nonlinear differential equations depending on parameters; dynamical systems theory provides, through the appropriate normal forms, an "intrinsic" prototypical characterization of the types of dynamical regimes accessible to a given model. Using an implementation of data-informed geometry learning, we directly reconstruct the relevant "normal forms": a quantitative mapping from empirical observations to prototypical realizations of the underlying dynamics. Interestingly, the state variables and the parameters of these realizations are inferred from the empirical observations; without prior knowledge or understanding, they parametrize the dynamics intrinsically without explicit reference to fundamental physical quantities.

Proposed military handbook for dynamic data acquisition and analysis - An invitation to review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Himelblau, Harry; Wise, James H.; Piersol, Allan G.; Grundvig, Max R.

1990-01-01

A draft Military Handbook prepared under the sponsorship of the USAF Space Division is presently being distributed throughout the U.S. for review by the aerospace community. This comprehensive document provides recommended guidelines for the acquisition and analysis of structural dynamics and aeroacoustic data, and is intended to reduce the errors and variability commonly found in flight, ground and laboratory dynamic test measurements. In addition to the usual variety of measurement problems encountered in the definition of dynamic loads, the development of design and test criteria, and the analysis of failures, special emphasis is given to certain state-of-the-art topics, such as pyroshock data acquisition and nonstationary random data analysis.

Optimization Scheduling Model for Wind-thermal Power System Considering the Dynamic penalty factor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

PENG, Siyu; LUO, Jianchun; WANG, Yunyu; YANG, Jun; RAN, Hong; PENG, Xiaodong; HUANG, Ming; LIU, Wanyu

2018-03-01

In this paper, a new dynamic economic dispatch model for power system is presented.Objective function of the proposed model presents a major novelty in the dynamic economic dispatch including wind farm: introduced the “Dynamic penalty factor”, This factor could be computed by using fuzzy logic considering both the variable nature of active wind power and power demand, and it could change the wind curtailment cost according to the different state of the power system. Case studies were carried out on the IEEE30 system. Results show that the proposed optimization model could mitigate the wind curtailment and the total cost effectively, demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed model.

Finite horizon optimum control with and without a scrap value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neck, R.; Blueschke-Nikolaeva, V.; Blueschke, D.

2017-06-01

In this paper, we study the effects of scrap values on the solutions of optimal control problems with finite time horizon. We show how to include a scrap value, either for the state variables or for the state and the control variables, in the OPTCON2 algorithm for the optimal control of dynamic economic systems. We ask whether the introduction of a scrap value can serve as a substitute for an infinite horizon in economic policy optimization problems where the latter option is not available. Using a simple numerical macroeconomic model, we demonstrate that the introduction of a scrap value cannot induce control policies which can be expected for problems with an infinite time horizon.

Sigh rate and respiratory variability during mental load and sustained attention.

PubMed

Vlemincx, Elke; Taelman, Joachim; De Peuter, Steven; Van Diest, Ilse; Van den Bergh, Omer

2011-01-01

Spontaneous breathing consists of substantial correlated variability: Parameters characterizing a breath are correlated with parameters characterizing previous and future breaths. On the basis of dynamic system theory, negative emotion states are predicted to reduce correlated variability whereas sustained attention is expected to reduce total respiratory variability. Both are predicted to evoke sighing. To test this, respiratory variability and sighing were assessed during a baseline, stressful mental arithmetic task, nonstressful sustained attention task, and recovery in between tasks. For respiration rate (excluding sighs), reduced total variability was found during the attention task, whereas correlated variation was reduced during mental load. Sigh rate increased during mental load and during recovery from the attention task. It is concluded that mental load and task-related attention show specific patterns in respiratory variability and sigh rate. Copyright © 2010 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Lubow, B.C.; Kendall, W.L.

2009-01-01

Thresholds and their relevance to conservation have become a major topic of discussion in the ecological literature. Unfortunately, in many cases the lack of a clear conceptual framework for thinking about thresholds may have led to confusion in attempts to apply the concept of thresholds to conservation decisions. Here, we advocate a framework for thinking about thresholds in terms of a structured decision making process. The purpose of this framework is to promote a logical and transparent process for making informed decisions for conservation. Specification of such a framework leads naturally to consideration of definitions and roles of different kinds of thresholds in the process. We distinguish among three categories of thresholds. Ecological thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes bring about substantial changes in system dynamics. Utility thresholds are components of management objectives (determined by human values) and are values of state or performance variables at which small changes yield substantial changes in the value of the management outcome. Decision thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes prompt changes in management actions in order to reach specified management objectives. The approach that we present focuses directly on the objectives of management, with an aim to providing decisions that are optimal with respect to those objectives. This approach clearly distinguishes the components of the decision process that are inherently subjective (management objectives, potential management actions) from those that are more objective (system models, estimates of system state). Optimization based on these components then leads to decision matrices specifying optimal actions to be taken at various values of system state variables. Values of state variables separating different actions in such matrices are viewed as decision thresholds. Utility thresholds are included in the objectives component, and ecological thresholds may be embedded in models projecting consequences of management actions. Decision thresholds are determined by the above-listed components of a structured decision process. These components may themselves vary over time, inducing variation in the decision thresholds inherited from them. These dynamic decision thresholds can then be determined using adaptive management. We provide numerical examples (that are based on patch occupancy models) of structured decision processes that include all three kinds of thresholds. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Assimilating AmeriFlux Site Data into the Community Land Model with Carbon-Nitrogen Coupling via the Ensemble Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pettijohn, J. C.; Law, B. E.; Williams, M. D.; Stoeckli, R.; Thornton, P. E.; Hudiburg, T. M.; Thomas, C. K.; Martin, J.; Hill, T. C.

2009-12-01

The assimilation of terrestrial carbon, water and nutrient cycle measurements into land surface models of these processes is fundamental to improving our ability to predict how these ecosystems may respond to climate change. A combination of measurements and models, each with their own systematic biases, must be considered when constraining the nonlinear behavior of these coupled dynamics. As such, we use the sequential Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to assimilate eddy covariance (EC) and other site-level AmeriFlux measurements into the NCAR Community Land Model with Carbon-Nitrogen coupling (CLM-CN v3.5), run in single-column mode at a 30-minute time step, to improve estimates of relatively unconstrained model state variables and parameters. Specifically, we focus on a semi-arid ponderosa pine site (US-ME2) in the Pacific Northwest to identify the mechanisms by which this ecosystem responds to severe late summer drought. Our EnKF analysis includes water, carbon, energy and nitrogen state variables (e.g., 10 volumetric soil moisture levels (0-3.43 m), ponderosa pine and shrub evapotranspiration and net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide stocks and flux components, snow depth, etc.) and associated parameters (e.g., PFT-level rooting distribution parameters, maximum subsurface runoff coefficient, soil hydraulic conductivity decay factor, snow aging parameters, maximum canopy conductance, C:N ratios, etc.). The effectiveness of the EnKF in constraining state variables and associated parameters is sensitive to their relative frequencies, in that C-N state variables and parameters with long time constants require similarly long time series in the analysis. We apply the EnKF kernel perturbation routine to disrupt preliminary convergence of covariances, which has been found in recent studies to be a problem more characteristic of low frequency vegetation state variables and parameters than high frequency ones more heavily coupled with highly varying climate (e.g., shallow soil moisture, snow depth). Preliminary results demonstrate that the assimilation of EC and other available AmeriFlux site physical, chemical and biological data significantly helps quantify and reduce CLM-CN model uncertainties and helps to constrain ‘hidden’ states and parameters that are essential in the coupled water, carbon, energy and nutrient dynamics of these sites. Such site-level calibration of CLM-CN is an initial step in identifying model deficiencies and in forecasts of future ecosystem responses to climate change.

Necessary and sufficient conditions for the stability of a sleeping top described by three forms of dynamic equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Zheng-Ming

2008-04-01

Necessary and sufficient conditions for the stability of a sleeping top described by dynamic equations of six state variables, Euler equations, and Poisson equations, by a two-degree-of-freedom system, Krylov equations, and by a one-degree-of-freedom system, nutation angle equation, is obtained by the Lyapunov direct method, Ge-Liu second instability theorem, an instability theorem, and a Ge-Yao-Chen partial region stability theorem without using the first approximation theory altogether.

Hamilton's Equations with Euler Parameters for Rigid Body Dynamics Modeling. Chapter 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shivarama, Ravishankar; Fahrenthold, Eric P.

2004-01-01

A combination of Euler parameter kinematics and Hamiltonian mechanics provides a rigid body dynamics model well suited for use in strongly nonlinear problems involving arbitrarily large rotations. The model is unconstrained, free of singularities, includes a general potential energy function and a minimum set of momentum variables, and takes an explicit state space form convenient for numerical implementation. The general formulation may be specialized to address particular applications, as illustrated in several three dimensional example problems.

Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

PubMed

Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

2007-04-01

A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

Behavioral Dynamics in Swimming: The Appropriate Use of Inertial Measurement Units.

PubMed

Guignard, Brice; Rouard, Annie; Chollet, Didier; Seifert, Ludovic

2017-01-01

Motor control in swimming can be analyzed using low- and high-order parameters of behavior. Low-order parameters generally refer to the superficial aspects of movement (i.e., position, velocity, acceleration), whereas high-order parameters capture the dynamics of movement coordination. To assess human aquatic behavior, both types have usually been investigated with multi-camera systems, as they offer high three-dimensional spatial accuracy. Research in ecological dynamics has shown that movement system variability can be viewed as a functional property of skilled performers, helping them adapt their movements to the surrounding constraints. Yet to determine the variability of swimming behavior, a large number of stroke cycles (i.e., inter-cyclic variability) has to be analyzed, which is impossible with camera-based systems as they simply record behaviors over restricted volumes of water. Inertial measurement units (IMUs) were designed to explore the parameters and variability of coordination dynamics. These light, transportable and easy-to-use devices offer new perspectives for swimming research because they can record low- to high-order behavioral parameters over long periods. We first review how the low-order behavioral parameters (i.e., speed, stroke length, stroke rate) of human aquatic locomotion and their variability can be assessed using IMUs. We then review the way high-order parameters are assessed and the adaptive role of movement and coordination variability in swimming. We give special focus to the circumstances in which determining the variability between stroke cycles provides insight into how behavior oscillates between stable and flexible states to functionally respond to environmental and task constraints. The last section of the review is dedicated to practical recommendations for coaches on using IMUs to monitor swimming performance. We therefore highlight the need for rigor in dealing with these sensors appropriately in water. We explain the fundamental and mandatory steps to follow for accurate results with IMUs, from data acquisition (e.g., waterproofing procedures) to interpretation (e.g., drift correction).

Behavioral Dynamics in Swimming: The Appropriate Use of Inertial Measurement Units

PubMed Central

Guignard, Brice; Rouard, Annie; Chollet, Didier; Seifert, Ludovic

2017-01-01

Motor control in swimming can be analyzed using low- and high-order parameters of behavior. Low-order parameters generally refer to the superficial aspects of movement (i.e., position, velocity, acceleration), whereas high-order parameters capture the dynamics of movement coordination. To assess human aquatic behavior, both types have usually been investigated with multi-camera systems, as they offer high three-dimensional spatial accuracy. Research in ecological dynamics has shown that movement system variability can be viewed as a functional property of skilled performers, helping them adapt their movements to the surrounding constraints. Yet to determine the variability of swimming behavior, a large number of stroke cycles (i.e., inter-cyclic variability) has to be analyzed, which is impossible with camera-based systems as they simply record behaviors over restricted volumes of water. Inertial measurement units (IMUs) were designed to explore the parameters and variability of coordination dynamics. These light, transportable and easy-to-use devices offer new perspectives for swimming research because they can record low- to high-order behavioral parameters over long periods. We first review how the low-order behavioral parameters (i.e., speed, stroke length, stroke rate) of human aquatic locomotion and their variability can be assessed using IMUs. We then review the way high-order parameters are assessed and the adaptive role of movement and coordination variability in swimming. We give special focus to the circumstances in which determining the variability between stroke cycles provides insight into how behavior oscillates between stable and flexible states to functionally respond to environmental and task constraints. The last section of the review is dedicated to practical recommendations for coaches on using IMUs to monitor swimming performance. We therefore highlight the need for rigor in dealing with these sensors appropriately in water. We explain the fundamental and mandatory steps to follow for accurate results with IMUs, from data acquisition (e.g., waterproofing procedures) to interpretation (e.g., drift correction). PMID:28352243

A Comprehensive Analytical Model of Rotorcraft Aerodynamics and Dynamics. Part 1. Analysis Development

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-06-01

sufficient. Dropping the time lag terms, the equations for Xu, Xx’, and X reduce to linear algebraic equations.Y Hence in the quasistatic case the...quasistatic variables now are not described by differential equations but rather by linear algebraic equations. The solution for x0 then is simply -365...matrices for two-bladed rotor 414 7. LINEAR SYSTEM ANALYSIS 425 7,1 State Variable Form 425 7.2 Constant Coefficient System 426 7.2. 1 Eigen-analysis 426

A Systematic Evaluation of Noah-MP in Simulating Land-Atmosphere Energy, Water, and Carbon Exchanges Over the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ning; Niu, Guo-Yue; Xia, Youlong; Cai, Xitian; Zhang, Yinsheng; Ma, Yaoming; Fang, Yuanhao

2017-11-01

Accurate simulation of energy, water, and carbon fluxes exchanging between the land surface and the atmosphere is beneficial for improving terrestrial ecohydrological and climate predictions. We systematically assessed the Noah land surface model (LSM) with mutiparameterization options (Noah-MP) in simulating these fluxes and associated variations in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and snow cover fraction (SCF) against various reference products over 18 United States Geological Survey two-digital hydrological unit code regions of the continental United States (CONUS). In general, Noah-MP captures better the observed seasonal and interregional variability of net radiation, SCF, and runoff than other variables. With a dynamic vegetation model, it overestimates gross primary productivity by 40% and evapotranspiration (ET) by 22% over the whole CONUS domain; however, with a prescribed climatology of leaf area index, it greatly improves ET simulation with relative bias dropping to 4%. It accurately simulates regional TWS dynamics in most regions except those with large lakes or severely affected by irrigation and/or impoundments. Incorporating the lake water storage variations into the modeled TWS variations largely reduces the TWS simulation bias more obviously over the Great Lakes with model efficiency increasing from 0.18 to 0.76. Noah-MP simulates runoff well in most regions except an obvious overestimation (underestimation) in the Rio Grande and Lower Colorado (New England). Compared with North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) LSMs, Noah-MP shows a better ability to simulate runoff and a comparable skill in simulating Rn but a worse skill in simulating ET over most regions. This study suggests that future model developments should focus on improving the representations of vegetation dynamics, lake water storage dynamics, and human activities including irrigation and impoundments.

Capturing multi-stage fuzzy uncertainties in hybrid system dynamics and agent-based models for enhancing policy implementation in health systems research.

PubMed

Liu, Shiyong; Triantis, Konstantinos P; Zhao, Li; Wang, Youfa

2018-01-01

In practical research, it was found that most people made health-related decisions not based on numerical data but on perceptions. Examples include the perceptions and their corresponding linguistic values of health risks such as, smoking, syringe sharing, eating energy-dense food, drinking sugar-sweetened beverages etc. For the sake of understanding the mechanisms that affect the implementations of health-related interventions, we employ fuzzy variables to quantify linguistic variable in healthcare modeling where we employ an integrated system dynamics and agent-based model. In a nonlinear causal-driven simulation environment driven by feedback loops, we mathematically demonstrate how interventions at an aggregate level affect the dynamics of linguistic variables that are captured by fuzzy agents and how interactions among fuzzy agents, at the same time, affect the formation of different clusters(groups) that are targeted by specific interventions. In this paper, we provide an innovative framework to capture multi-stage fuzzy uncertainties manifested among interacting heterogeneous agents (individuals) and intervention decisions that affect homogeneous agents (groups of individuals) in a hybrid model that combines an agent-based simulation model (ABM) and a system dynamics models (SDM). Having built the platform to incorporate high-dimension data in a hybrid ABM/SDM model, this paper demonstrates how one can obtain the state variable behaviors in the SDM and the corresponding values of linguistic variables in the ABM. This research provides a way to incorporate high-dimension data in a hybrid ABM/SDM model. This research not only enriches the application of fuzzy set theory by capturing the dynamics of variables associated with interacting fuzzy agents that lead to aggregate behaviors but also informs implementation research by enabling the incorporation of linguistic variables at both individual and institutional levels, which makes unstructured linguistic data meaningful and quantifiable in a simulation environment. This research can help practitioners and decision makers to gain better understanding on the dynamics and complexities of precision intervention in healthcare. It can aid the improvement of the optimal allocation of resources for targeted group (s) and the achievement of maximum utility. As this technology becomes more mature, one can design policy flight simulators by which policy/intervention designers can test a variety of assumptions when they evaluate different alternatives interventions.

State estimation and prediction using clustered particle filters.

PubMed

Lee, Yoonsang; Majda, Andrew J

2016-12-20

Particle filtering is an essential tool to improve uncertain model predictions by incorporating noisy observational data from complex systems including non-Gaussian features. A class of particle filters, clustered particle filters, is introduced for high-dimensional nonlinear systems, which uses relatively few particles compared with the standard particle filter. The clustered particle filter captures non-Gaussian features of the true signal, which are typical in complex nonlinear dynamical systems such as geophysical systems. The method is also robust in the difficult regime of high-quality sparse and infrequent observations. The key features of the clustered particle filtering are coarse-grained localization through the clustering of the state variables and particle adjustment to stabilize the method; each observation affects only neighbor state variables through clustering and particles are adjusted to prevent particle collapse due to high-quality observations. The clustered particle filter is tested for the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model with several dynamical regimes including strongly non-Gaussian statistics. The clustered particle filter shows robust skill in both achieving accurate filter results and capturing non-Gaussian statistics of the true signal. It is further extended to multiscale data assimilation, which provides the large-scale estimation by combining a cheap reduced-order forecast model and mixed observations of the large- and small-scale variables. This approach enables the use of a larger number of particles due to the computational savings in the forecast model. The multiscale clustered particle filter is tested for one-dimensional dispersive wave turbulence using a forecast model with model errors.

State estimation and prediction using clustered particle filters

PubMed Central

Lee, Yoonsang; Majda, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

Particle filtering is an essential tool to improve uncertain model predictions by incorporating noisy observational data from complex systems including non-Gaussian features. A class of particle filters, clustered particle filters, is introduced for high-dimensional nonlinear systems, which uses relatively few particles compared with the standard particle filter. The clustered particle filter captures non-Gaussian features of the true signal, which are typical in complex nonlinear dynamical systems such as geophysical systems. The method is also robust in the difficult regime of high-quality sparse and infrequent observations. The key features of the clustered particle filtering are coarse-grained localization through the clustering of the state variables and particle adjustment to stabilize the method; each observation affects only neighbor state variables through clustering and particles are adjusted to prevent particle collapse due to high-quality observations. The clustered particle filter is tested for the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model with several dynamical regimes including strongly non-Gaussian statistics. The clustered particle filter shows robust skill in both achieving accurate filter results and capturing non-Gaussian statistics of the true signal. It is further extended to multiscale data assimilation, which provides the large-scale estimation by combining a cheap reduced-order forecast model and mixed observations of the large- and small-scale variables. This approach enables the use of a larger number of particles due to the computational savings in the forecast model. The multiscale clustered particle filter is tested for one-dimensional dispersive wave turbulence using a forecast model with model errors. PMID:27930332

Predicting Mood Changes in Bipolar Disorder through Heartbeat Nonlinear Dynamics.

PubMed

Valenza, Gaetano; Nardelli, Mimma; Lanata', Antonio; Gentili, Claudio; Bertschy, Gilles; Kosel, Markus; Scilingo, Enzo Pasquale

2016-04-20

Bipolar Disorder (BD) is characterized by an alternation of mood states from depression to (hypo)mania. Mixed states, i.e., a combination of depression and mania symptoms at the same time, can also be present. The diagnosis of this disorder in the current clinical practice is based only on subjective interviews and questionnaires, while no reliable objective psychophysiological markers are available. Furthermore, there are no biological markers predicting BD outcomes, or providing information about the future clinical course of the phenomenon. To overcome this limitation, here we propose a methodology predicting mood changes in BD using heartbeat nonlinear dynamics exclusively, derived from the ECG. Mood changes are here intended as transitioning between two mental states: euthymic state (EUT), i.e., the good affective balance, and non-euthymic (non-EUT) states. Heart Rate Variability (HRV) series from 14 bipolar spectrum patients (age: 33.439.76, age range: 23-54; 6 females) involved in the European project PSYCHE, undergoing whole night ECG monitoring were analyzed. Data were gathered from a wearable system comprised of a comfortable t-shirt with integrated fabric electrodes and sensors able to acquire ECGs. Each patient was monitored twice a week, for 14 weeks, being able to perform normal (unstructured) activities. From each acquisition, the longest artifact-free segment of heartbeat dynamics was selected for further analyses. Sub-segments of 5 minutes of this segment were used to estimate trends of HRV linear and nonlinear dynamics. Considering data from a current observation at day t0, and past observations at days (t1, t2,...,), personalized prediction accuracies in forecasting a mood state (EUT/non-EUT) at day t+1 were 69% on average, reaching values as high as 83.3%. This approach opens to the possibility of predicting mood states in bipolar patients through heartbeat nonlinear dynamics exclusively.

Reconstructing Mammalian Sleep Dynamics with Data Assimilation

PubMed Central

Sedigh-Sarvestani, Madineh; Schiff, Steven J.; Gluckman, Bruce J.

2012-01-01

Data assimilation is a valuable tool in the study of any complex system, where measurements are incomplete, uncertain, or both. It enables the user to take advantage of all available information including experimental measurements and short-term model forecasts of a system. Although data assimilation has been used to study other biological systems, the study of the sleep-wake regulatory network has yet to benefit from this toolset. We present a data assimilation framework based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) for combining sparse measurements together with a relatively high-dimensional nonlinear computational model to estimate the state of a model of the sleep-wake regulatory system. We demonstrate with simulation studies that a few noisy variables can be used to accurately reconstruct the remaining hidden variables. We introduce a metric for ranking relative partial observability of computational models, within the UKF framework, that allows us to choose the optimal variables for measurement and also provides a methodology for optimizing framework parameters such as UKF covariance inflation. In addition, we demonstrate a parameter estimation method that allows us to track non-stationary model parameters and accommodate slow dynamics not included in the UKF filter model. Finally, we show that we can even use observed discretized sleep-state, which is not one of the model variables, to reconstruct model state and estimate unknown parameters. Sleep is implicated in many neurological disorders from epilepsy to schizophrenia, but simultaneous observation of the many brain components that regulate this behavior is difficult. We anticipate that this data assimilation framework will enable better understanding of the detailed interactions governing sleep and wake behavior and provide for better, more targeted, therapies. PMID:23209396

Capturing the temporal evolution of choice across prefrontal cortex

PubMed Central

Hunt, Laurence T; Behrens, Timothy EJ; Hosokawa, Takayuki; Wallis, Jonathan D; Kennerley, Steven W

2015-01-01

Activity in prefrontal cortex (PFC) has been richly described using economic models of choice. Yet such descriptions fail to capture the dynamics of decision formation. Describing dynamic neural processes has proven challenging due to the problem of indexing the internal state of PFC and its trial-by-trial variation. Using primate neurophysiology and human magnetoencephalography, we here recover a single-trial index of PFC internal states from multiple simultaneously recorded PFC subregions. This index can explain the origins of neural representations of economic variables in PFC. It describes the relationship between neural dynamics and behaviour in both human and monkey PFC, directly bridging between human neuroimaging data and underlying neuronal activity. Moreover, it reveals a functionally dissociable interaction between orbitofrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex and dorsolateral PFC in guiding cost-benefit decisions. We cast our observations in terms of a recurrent neural network model of choice, providing formal links to mechanistic dynamical accounts of decision-making. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11945.001 PMID:26653139

Degenerate time-dependent network dynamics anticipate seizures in human epileptic brain.

PubMed

Tauste Campo, Adrià; Principe, Alessandro; Ley, Miguel; Rocamora, Rodrigo; Deco, Gustavo

2018-04-01

Epileptic seizures are known to follow specific changes in brain dynamics. While some algorithms can nowadays robustly detect these changes, a clear understanding of the mechanism by which these alterations occur and generate seizures is still lacking. Here, we provide crossvalidated evidence that such changes are initiated by an alteration of physiological network state dynamics. Specifically, our analysis of long intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) recordings from a group of 10 patients identifies a critical phase of a few hours in which time-dependent network states become less variable ("degenerate"), and this phase is followed by a global functional connectivity reduction before seizure onset. This critical phase is characterized by an abnormal occurrence of highly correlated network instances and is shown to be particularly associated with the activity of the resected regions in patients with validated postsurgical outcome. Our approach characterizes preseizure network dynamics as a cascade of 2 sequential events providing new insights into seizure prediction and control.

Locomotor-respiratory coupling patterns and oxygen consumption during walking above and below preferred stride frequency.

PubMed

O'Halloran, Joseph; Hamill, Joseph; McDermott, William J; Remelius, Jebb G; Van Emmerik, Richard E A

2012-03-01

Locomotor respiratory coupling patterns in humans have been assessed on the basis of the interaction between different physiological and motor subsystems; these interactions have implications for movement economy. A complex and dynamical systems framework may provide more insight than entrainment into the variability and adaptability of these rhythms and their coupling. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between steady state locomotor-respiratory coordination dynamics and oxygen consumption [Formula: see text] of the movement by varying walking stride frequency from preferred. Twelve male participants walked on a treadmill at a self-selected speed. Stride frequency was varied from -20 to +20% of preferred stride frequency (PSF) while respiratory airflow, gas exchange variables, and stride kinematics were recorded. Discrete relative phase and return map techniques were used to evaluate the strength, stability, and variability of both frequency and phase couplings. Analysis of [Formula: see text] during steady-state walking showed a U-shaped response (P = 0.002) with a minimum at PSF and PSF - 10%. Locomotor-respiratory frequency coupling strength was not greater (P = 0.375) at PSF than any other stride frequency condition. The dominant coupling across all conditions was 2:1 with greater occurrences at the lower stride frequencies. Variability in coupling was the greatest during PSF, indicating an exploration of coupling strategies to search for the coupling frequency strategy with the least oxygen consumption. Contrary to the belief that increased strength of frequency coupling would decrease oxygen consumption; these results conclude that it is the increased variability of frequency coupling that results in lower oxygen consumption.

Fokker-Planck description for the queue dynamics of large tick stocks.

PubMed

Garèche, A; Disdier, G; Kockelkoren, J; Bouchaud, J-P

2013-09-01

Motivated by empirical data, we develop a statistical description of the queue dynamics for large tick assets based on a two-dimensional Fokker-Planck (diffusion) equation. Our description explicitly includes state dependence, i.e., the fact that the drift and diffusion depend on the volume present on both sides of the spread. "Jump" events, corresponding to sudden changes of the best limit price, must also be included as birth-death terms in the Fokker-Planck equation. All quantities involved in the equation can be calibrated using high-frequency data on the best quotes. One of our central findings is that the dynamical process is approximately scale invariant, i.e., the only relevant variable is the ratio of the current volume in the queue to its average value. While the latter shows intraday seasonalities and strong variability across stocks and time periods, the dynamics of the rescaled volumes is universal. In terms of rescaled volumes, we found that the drift has a complex two-dimensional structure, which is a sum of a gradient contribution and a rotational contribution, both stable across stocks and time. This drift term is entirely responsible for the dynamical correlations between the ask queue and the bid queue.

Fokker-Planck description for the queue dynamics of large tick stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garèche, A.; Disdier, G.; Kockelkoren, J.; Bouchaud, J.-P.

2013-09-01

Motivated by empirical data, we develop a statistical description of the queue dynamics for large tick assets based on a two-dimensional Fokker-Planck (diffusion) equation. Our description explicitly includes state dependence, i.e., the fact that the drift and diffusion depend on the volume present on both sides of the spread. “Jump” events, corresponding to sudden changes of the best limit price, must also be included as birth-death terms in the Fokker-Planck equation. All quantities involved in the equation can be calibrated using high-frequency data on the best quotes. One of our central findings is that the dynamical process is approximately scale invariant, i.e., the only relevant variable is the ratio of the current volume in the queue to its average value. While the latter shows intraday seasonalities and strong variability across stocks and time periods, the dynamics of the rescaled volumes is universal. In terms of rescaled volumes, we found that the drift has a complex two-dimensional structure, which is a sum of a gradient contribution and a rotational contribution, both stable across stocks and time. This drift term is entirely responsible for the dynamical correlations between the ask queue and the bid queue.

Elimination of spiral waves in a locally connected chaotic neural network by a dynamic phase space constraint.

PubMed

Li, Yang; Oku, Makito; He, Guoguang; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2017-04-01

In this study, a method is proposed that eliminates spiral waves in a locally connected chaotic neural network (CNN) under some simplified conditions, using a dynamic phase space constraint (DPSC) as a control method. In this method, a control signal is constructed from the feedback internal states of the neurons to detect phase singularities based on their amplitude reduction, before modulating a threshold value to truncate the refractory internal states of the neurons and terminate the spirals. Simulations showed that with appropriate parameter settings, the network was directed from a spiral wave state into either a plane wave (PW) state or a synchronized oscillation (SO) state, where the control vanished automatically and left the original CNN model unaltered. Each type of state had a characteristic oscillation frequency, where spiral wave states had the highest, and the intra-control dynamics was dominated by low-frequency components, thereby indicating slow adjustments to the state variables. In addition, the PW-inducing and SO-inducing control processes were distinct, where the former generally had longer durations but smaller average proportions of affected neurons in the network. Furthermore, variations in the control parameter allowed partial selectivity of the control results, which were accompanied by modulation of the control processes. The results of this study broaden the applicability of DPSC to chaos control and they may also facilitate the utilization of locally connected CNNs in memory retrieval and the exploration of traveling wave dynamics in biological neural networks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical Frequency-Dependent Analysis of Trial-to-Trial Variability in Single Time Series by Recurrence Plots.

PubMed

Tošić, Tamara; Sellers, Kristin K; Fröhlich, Flavio; Fedotenkova, Mariia; Beim Graben, Peter; Hutt, Axel

2015-01-01

For decades, research in neuroscience has supported the hypothesis that brain dynamics exhibits recurrent metastable states connected by transients, which together encode fundamental neural information processing. To understand the system's dynamics it is important to detect such recurrence domains, but it is challenging to extract them from experimental neuroscience datasets due to the large trial-to-trial variability. The proposed methodology extracts recurrent metastable states in univariate time series by transforming datasets into their time-frequency representations and computing recurrence plots based on instantaneous spectral power values in various frequency bands. Additionally, a new statistical inference analysis compares different trial recurrence plots with corresponding surrogates to obtain statistically significant recurrent structures. This combination of methods is validated by applying it to two artificial datasets. In a final study of visually-evoked Local Field Potentials in partially anesthetized ferrets, the methodology is able to reveal recurrence structures of neural responses with trial-to-trial variability. Focusing on different frequency bands, the δ-band activity is much less recurrent than α-band activity. Moreover, α-activity is susceptible to pre-stimuli, while δ-activity is much less sensitive to pre-stimuli. This difference in recurrence structures in different frequency bands indicates diverse underlying information processing steps in the brain.

Statistical Frequency-Dependent Analysis of Trial-to-Trial Variability in Single Time Series by Recurrence Plots

PubMed Central

Tošić, Tamara; Sellers, Kristin K.; Fröhlich, Flavio; Fedotenkova, Mariia; beim Graben, Peter; Hutt, Axel

2016-01-01

For decades, research in neuroscience has supported the hypothesis that brain dynamics exhibits recurrent metastable states connected by transients, which together encode fundamental neural information processing. To understand the system's dynamics it is important to detect such recurrence domains, but it is challenging to extract them from experimental neuroscience datasets due to the large trial-to-trial variability. The proposed methodology extracts recurrent metastable states in univariate time series by transforming datasets into their time-frequency representations and computing recurrence plots based on instantaneous spectral power values in various frequency bands. Additionally, a new statistical inference analysis compares different trial recurrence plots with corresponding surrogates to obtain statistically significant recurrent structures. This combination of methods is validated by applying it to two artificial datasets. In a final study of visually-evoked Local Field Potentials in partially anesthetized ferrets, the methodology is able to reveal recurrence structures of neural responses with trial-to-trial variability. Focusing on different frequency bands, the δ-band activity is much less recurrent than α-band activity. Moreover, α-activity is susceptible to pre-stimuli, while δ-activity is much less sensitive to pre-stimuli. This difference in recurrence structures in different frequency bands indicates diverse underlying information processing steps in the brain. PMID:26834580

System analysis of vehicle active safety problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buznikov, S. E.

2018-02-01

The problem of the road transport safety affects the vital interests of the most of the population and is characterized by a global level of significance. The system analysis of problem of creation of competitive active vehicle safety systems is presented as an interrelated complex of tasks of multi-criterion optimization and dynamic stabilization of the state variables of a controlled object. Solving them requires generation of all possible variants of technical solutions within the software and hardware domains and synthesis of the control, which is close to optimum. For implementing the task of the system analysis the Zwicky “morphological box” method is used. Creation of comprehensive active safety systems involves solution of the problem of preventing typical collisions. For solving it, a structured set of collisions is introduced with its elements being generated also using the Zwicky “morphological box” method. The obstacle speed, the longitudinal acceleration of the controlled object and the unpredictable changes in its movement direction due to certain faults, the road surface condition and the control errors are taken as structure variables that characterize the conditions of collisions. The conditions for preventing typical collisions are presented as inequalities for physical variables that define the state vector of the object and its dynamic limits.

Stratification Pattern of Static and Scale-Invariant Dynamic Measures of Heartbeat Fluctuations Across Sleep Stages in Young and Elderly

PubMed Central

Schmitt, Daniel T.; Stein, Phyllis K.; Ivanov, Plamen Ch.

2010-01-01

Cardiac dynamics exhibit complex variability characterized by scale-invariant and nonlinear temporal organization related to the mechanism of neuroautonomic control, which changes with physiologic states and pathologic conditions. Changes in sleep regulation during sleep stages are also related to fluctuations in autonomic nervous activity. However, the interaction between sleep regulation and cardiac autonomic control remains not well understood. Even less is known how this interaction changes with age, as aspects of both cardiac dynamics and sleep regulation differ in healthy elderly compared to young subjects. We hypothesize that because of the neuroautonomic responsiveness in young subjects, fractal and nonlinear features of cardiac dynamics exhibit a pronounced stratification pattern across sleep stages, while in elderly these features will remain unchanged due to age-related loss of cardiac variability and decline of neuroautonomic responsiveness. We analyze the variability and the temporal fractal organization of heartbeat fluctuations across sleep stages in both young and elderly. We find that independent linear and nonlinear measures of cardiac control consistently exhibit the same ordering in their values across sleep stages, forming a robust stratification pattern. Despite changes in sleep architecture and reduced heart rate variability in elderly subjects, this stratification surprisingly does not break down with advanced age. Moreover, the difference between sleep stages for some linear, fractal, and nonlinear measures exceeds the difference between young and elderly, suggesting that the effect of sleep regulation on cardiac dynamics is significantly stronger than the effect of healthy aging. Quantifying changes in this stratification pattern may provide insights into how alterations in sleep regulation contribute to increased cardiac risk. PMID:19203874

A framework for quantification of groundwater dynamics - concepts and hydro(geo-)logical metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haaf, Ezra; Heudorfer, Benedikt; Stahl, Kerstin; Barthel, Roland

2017-04-01

Fluctuation patterns in groundwater hydrographs are generally assumed to contain information on aquifer characteristics, climate and environmental controls. However, attempts to disentangle this information and map the dominant controls have been few. This is due to the substantial heterogeneity and complexity of groundwater systems, which is reflected in the abundance of morphologies of groundwater time series. To describe the structure and shape of hydrographs, descriptive terms like "slow"/ "fast" or "flashy"/ "inert" are frequently used, which are subjective, irreproducible and limited. This lack of objective and refined concepts limit approaches for regionalization of hydrogeological characteristics as well as our understanding of dominant processes controlling groundwater dynamics. Therefore, we propose a novel framework for groundwater hydrograph characterization in an attempt to categorize morphologies explicitly and quantitatively based on perceptual concepts of aspects of the dynamics. This quantitative framework is inspired by the existing and operational eco-hydrological classification frameworks for streamflow. The need for a new framework for groundwater systems is justified by the fundamental differences between the state variable groundwater head and the flow variable streamflow. Conceptually, we extracted exemplars of specific dynamic patterns, attributing descriptive terms for means of systematisation. Metrics, primarily taken from streamflow literature, were subsequently adapted to groundwater and assigned to the described patterns for means of quantification. In this study, we focused on the particularities of groundwater as a state variable. Furthermore, we investigated the descriptive skill of individual metrics as well as their usefulness for groundwater hydrographs. The ensemble of categorized metrics result in a framework, which can be used to describe and quantify groundwater dynamics. It is a promising tool for the setup of a successful similarity classification framework for groundwater hydrographs. However, the overabundance of metrics available calls for a systematic redundancy analysis of the metrics, which we describe in a second study (Heudorfer et al., 2017). Heudorfer, B., Haaf, E., Barthel, R., Stahl, K., 2017. A framework for quantification of groundwater dynamics - redundancy and transferability of hydro(geo-)logical metrics. EGU General Assembly 2017, Vienna, Austria.

Power maximization of variable-speed variable-pitch wind turbines using passive adaptive neural fault tolerant control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habibi, Hamed; Rahimi Nohooji, Hamed; Howard, Ian

2017-09-01

Power maximization has always been a practical consideration in wind turbines. The question of how to address optimal power capture, especially when the system dynamics are nonlinear and the actuators are subject to unknown faults, is significant. This paper studies the control methodology for variable-speed variable-pitch wind turbines including the effects of uncertain nonlinear dynamics, system fault uncertainties, and unknown external disturbances. The nonlinear model of the wind turbine is presented, and the problem of maximizing extracted energy is formulated by designing the optimal desired states. With the known system, a model-based nonlinear controller is designed; then, to handle uncertainties, the unknown nonlinearities of the wind turbine are estimated by utilizing radial basis function neural networks. The adaptive neural fault tolerant control is designed passively to be robust on model uncertainties, disturbances including wind speed and model noises, and completely unknown actuator faults including generator torque and pitch actuator torque. The Lyapunov direct method is employed to prove that the closed-loop system is uniformly bounded. Simulation studies are performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

A compositional framework for reaction networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baez, John C.; Pollard, Blake S.

Reaction networks, or equivalently Petri nets, are a general framework for describing processes in which entities of various kinds interact and turn into other entities. In chemistry, where the reactions are assigned ‘rate constants’, any reaction network gives rise to a nonlinear dynamical system called its ‘rate equation’. Here we generalize these ideas to ‘open’ reaction networks, which allow entities to flow in and out at certain designated inputs and outputs. We treat open reaction networks as morphisms in a category. Composing two such morphisms connects the outputs of the first to the inputs of the second. We construct a functor sending any open reaction network to its corresponding ‘open dynamical system’. This provides a compositional framework for studying the dynamics of reaction networks. We then turn to statics: that is, steady state solutions of open dynamical systems. We construct a ‘black-boxing’ functor that sends any open dynamical system to the relation that it imposes between input and output variables in steady states. This extends our earlier work on black-boxing for Markov processes.

Uncertainty quantification of fast sodium current steady-state inactivation for multi-scale models of cardiac electrophysiology.

PubMed

Pathmanathan, Pras; Shotwell, Matthew S; Gavaghan, David J; Cordeiro, Jonathan M; Gray, Richard A

2015-01-01

Perhaps the most mature area of multi-scale systems biology is the modelling of the heart. Current models are grounded in over fifty years of research in the development of biophysically detailed models of the electrophysiology (EP) of cardiac cells, but one aspect which is inadequately addressed is the incorporation of uncertainty and physiological variability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the identification and characterisation of the uncertainty in model parameters derived from experimental data, and the computation of the resultant uncertainty in model outputs. It is a necessary tool for establishing the credibility of computational models, and will likely be expected of EP models for future safety-critical clinical applications. The focus of this paper is formal UQ of one major sub-component of cardiac EP models, the steady-state inactivation of the fast sodium current, INa. To better capture average behaviour and quantify variability across cells, we have applied for the first time an 'individual-based' statistical methodology to assess voltage clamp data. Advantages of this approach over a more traditional 'population-averaged' approach are highlighted. The method was used to characterise variability amongst cells isolated from canine epi and endocardium, and this variability was then 'propagated forward' through a canine model to determine the resultant uncertainty in model predictions at different scales, such as of upstroke velocity and spiral wave dynamics. Statistically significant differences between epi and endocardial cells (greater half-inactivation and less steep slope of steady state inactivation curve for endo) was observed, and the forward propagation revealed a lack of robustness of the model to underlying variability, but also surprising robustness to variability at the tissue scale. Overall, the methodology can be used to: (i) better analyse voltage clamp data; (ii) characterise underlying population variability; (iii) investigate consequences of variability; and (iv) improve the ability to validate a model. To our knowledge this article is the first to quantify population variability in membrane dynamics in this manner, and the first to perform formal UQ for a component of a cardiac model. The approach is likely to find much wider applicability across systems biology as current application domains reach greater levels of maturity. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Deriving dynamical models from paleoclimatic records: application to glacial millennial-scale climate variability.

PubMed

Kwasniok, Frank; Lohmann, Gerrit

2009-12-01

A method for systematically deriving simple nonlinear dynamical models from ice-core data is proposed. It offers a tool to integrate models and theories with paleoclimatic data. The method is based on the unscented Kalman filter, a nonlinear extension of the conventional Kalman filter. Here, we adopt the abstract conceptual model of stochastically driven motion in a potential that allows for two distinctly different states. The parameters of the model-the shape of the potential and the noise level-are estimated from a North Greenland ice-core record. For the glacial period from 70 to 20 ky before present, a potential is derived that is asymmetric and almost degenerate. There is a deep well corresponding to a cold stadial state and a very shallow well corresponding to a warm interstadial state.

Thermocline Temperature Variability Reveals Shifts in the Tropical Pacific Mean State across Marine Isotope Stage 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertzberg, J. E.; Schmidt, M. W.

2014-12-01

The eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) is one of the most dynamic oceanographic regions, making it a critical area for understanding past climate change. Despite this, there remains uncertainty on the climatic evolution of the EEP through the last glacial period. According to the ocean dynamical thermostat theory, warming (cooling) of the tropical Pacific Ocean may lead to a more La Niña (El Niño)-like mean state due to zonally asymmetric heating and subsequent easterly (westerly) wind anomalies at the equator (Clement and Cane, 1999). Attempts to understand these feedbacks on millennial timescales across Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) have proven to be fruitful in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) (Stott et al., 2002), yet complimentary, high-resolution records from the EEP are lacking. To provide a more complete understanding of the feedback mechanisms of the dynamical thermostat across periods of abrupt climate change, we reconstruct thermocline temperature variability across MIS 3 from a sediment core located in the EEP, directly within the equatorial cold tongue upwelling region (core MV1014-02-17JC). Temperature anomalies in thermocline waters of the EEP are integrally linked to the ENSO system, with large positive and negative anomalies recorded during El Niño and La Niña events, respectively. Mg/Ca ratios in the thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina dutertrei were measured at 2 cm intervals, resulting in a temporal resolution of <200 years. Preliminary results across Interstadials 5-7 reveal warmer thermocline temperatures (an increase in Mg/Ca of .25 ± .02 mmol/mol) during periods of cooling following peak Interstadial warmth over Greenland, as seen from the NGRIP δ18O record. Thus, periods of cooling over Greenland appear to correspond to an El Niño-like mean state in the tropical Pacific, in line with predictions of an ocean dynamical thermostat. Interestingly, Heinrich Event 3 corresponds to cooler thermocline temperatures, suggesting a different forcing mechanism of tropical Pacific mean state variability across Heinrich Events. The record will be extended back to 80 kyr BP, and we will also measure Globigerinoides ruber Mg/Ca ratios across MIS 3 to calculate the zonal E-W sea surface temperature gradient using published records from the WEP.

Predicting U.S. food demand in the 20th century: a new look at system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moorthy, Mukund; Cellier, Francois E.; LaFrance, Jeffrey T.

1998-08-01

The paper describes a new methodology for predicting the behavior of macroeconomic variables. The approach is based on System Dynamics and Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning. A four- layer pseudo-hierarchical model is proposed. The bottom layer makes predications about population dynamics, age distributions among the populace, as well as demographics. The second layer makes predications about the general state of the economy, including such variables as inflation and unemployment. The third layer makes predictions about the demand for certain goods or services, such as milk products, used cars, mobile telephones, or internet services. The fourth and top layer makes predictions about the supply of such goods and services, both in terms of their prices. Each layer can be influenced by control variables the values of which are only determined at higher levels. In this sense, the model is not strictly hierarchical. For example, the demand for goods at level three depends on the prices of these goods, which are only determined at level four. Yet, the prices are themselves influenced by the expected demand. The methodology is exemplified by means of a macroeconomic model that makes predictions about US food demand during the 20th century.

A hybrid model for traffic flow and crowd dynamics with random individual properties.

PubMed

Schleper, Veronika

2015-04-01

Based on an established mathematical model for the behavior of large crowds, a new model is derived that is able to take into account the statistical variation of individual maximum walking speeds. The same model is shown to be valid also in traffic flow situations, where for instance the statistical variation of preferred maximum speeds can be considered. The model involves explicit bounds on the state variables, such that a special Riemann solver is derived that is proved to respect the state constraints. Some care is devoted to a valid construction of random initial data, necessary for the use of the new model. The article also includes a numerical method that is shown to respect the bounds on the state variables and illustrative numerical examples, explaining the properties of the new model in comparison with established models.

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Maasch, Kirk A.; Oglesby, Robert; Pandolfo, Lionel

1990-01-01

Researchers are continuing their studies of the nonlinear dynamics of global weather systems. Sensitivity analyses of large-scale dynamical models of the atmosphere (i.e., general circulation models i.e., GCM's) were performed to establish the role of satellite-signatures of soil moisture, sea surface temperature, snow cover, and sea ice as crucial boundary conditions determining global weather variability. To complete their study of the bimodality of the planetary wave states, they are using the dynamical systems approach to construct a low-order theoretical explanation of this phenomenon. This work should have important implications for extended range forecasting of low-frequency oscillations, elucidating the mechanisms for the transitions between the two wave modes. Researchers are using the methods of jump analysis and attractor dimension analysis to examine the long-term satellite records of significant variables (e.g., long wave radiation, and cloud amount), to explore the nature of mode transitions in the atmosphere, and to determine the minimum number of equations needed to describe the main weather variations with a low-order dynamical system. Where feasible they will continue to explore the applicability of the methods of complex dynamical systems analysis to the study of the global earth-system from an integrative viewpoint involving the roles of geochemical cycling and the interactive behavior of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere.

A model of metastable dynamics during ongoing and evoked cortical activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Camera, Giancarlo

The dynamics of simultaneously recorded spike trains in alert animals often evolve through temporal sequences of metastable states. Little is known about the network mechanisms responsible for the genesis of such sequences, or their potential role in neural coding. In the gustatory cortex of alert rates, state sequences can be observed also in the absence of overt sensory stimulation, and thus form the basis of the so-called `ongoing activity'. This activity is characterized by a partial degree of coordination among neurons, sharp transitions among states, and multi-stability of single neurons' firing rates. A recurrent spiking network model with clustered topology can account for both the spontaneous generation of state sequences and the (network-generated) multi-stability. In the model, each network state results from the activation of specific neural clusters with potentiated intra-cluster connections. A mean field solution of the model shows a large number of stable states, each characterized by a subset of simultaneously active clusters. The firing rate in each cluster during ongoing activity depends on the number of active clusters, so that the same neuron can have different firing rates depending on the state of the network. Because of dense intra-cluster connectivity and recurrent inhibition, in finite networks the stable states lose stability due to finite size effects. Simulations of the dynamics show that the model ensemble activity continuously hops among the different states, reproducing the ongoing dynamics observed in the data. Moreover, when probed with external stimuli, the model correctly predicts the quenching of single neuron multi-stability into bi-stability, the reduction of dimensionality of the population activity, the reduction of trial-to-trial variability, and a potential role for metastable states in the anticipation of expected events. Altogether, these results provide a unified mechanistic model of ongoing and evoked cortical dynamics. NSF IIS-1161852, NIDCD K25-DC013557, NIDCD R01-DC010389.

Constrained approximation of effective generators for multiscale stochastic reaction networks and application to conditioned path sampling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cotter, Simon L., E-mail: simon.cotter@manchester.ac.uk

2016-10-15

Efficient analysis and simulation of multiscale stochastic systems of chemical kinetics is an ongoing area for research, and is the source of many theoretical and computational challenges. In this paper, we present a significant improvement to the constrained approach, which is a method for computing effective dynamics of slowly changing quantities in these systems, but which does not rely on the quasi-steady-state assumption (QSSA). The QSSA can cause errors in the estimation of effective dynamics for systems where the difference in timescales between the “fast” and “slow” variables is not so pronounced. This new application of the constrained approach allowsmore » us to compute the effective generator of the slow variables, without the need for expensive stochastic simulations. This is achieved by finding the null space of the generator of the constrained system. For complex systems where this is not possible, or where the constrained subsystem is itself multiscale, the constrained approach can then be applied iteratively. This results in breaking the problem down into finding the solutions to many small eigenvalue problems, which can be efficiently solved using standard methods. Since this methodology does not rely on the quasi steady-state assumption, the effective dynamics that are approximated are highly accurate, and in the case of systems with only monomolecular reactions, are exact. We will demonstrate this with some numerics, and also use the effective generators to sample paths of the slow variables which are conditioned on their endpoints, a task which would be computationally intractable for the generator of the full system.« less

Online Kinematic and Dynamic-State Estimation for Constrained Multibody Systems Based on IMUs

PubMed Central

Torres-Moreno, José Luis; Blanco-Claraco, José Luis; Giménez-Fernández, Antonio; Sanjurjo, Emilio; Naya, Miguel Ángel

2016-01-01

This article addresses the problems of online estimations of kinematic and dynamic states of a mechanism from a sequence of noisy measurements. In particular, we focus on a planar four-bar linkage equipped with inertial measurement units (IMUs). Firstly, we describe how the position, velocity, and acceleration of all parts of the mechanism can be derived from IMU signals by means of multibody kinematics. Next, we propose the novel idea of integrating the generic multibody dynamic equations into two variants of Kalman filtering, i.e., the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), in a way that enables us to handle closed-loop, constrained mechanisms, whose state space variables are not independent and would normally prevent the direct use of such estimators. The proposal in this work is to apply those estimators over the manifolds of allowed positions and velocities, by means of estimating a subset of independent coordinates only. The proposed techniques are experimentally validated on a testbed equipped with encoders as a means of establishing the ground-truth. Estimators are run online in real-time, a feature not matched by any previous procedure of those reported in the literature on multibody dynamics. PMID:26959027

Streamflow variability and classification using false nearest neighbor method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vignesh, R.; Jothiprakash, V.; Sivakumar, B.

2015-12-01

Understanding regional streamflow dynamics and patterns continues to be a challenging problem. The present study introduces the false nearest neighbor (FNN) algorithm, a nonlinear dynamic-based method, to examine the spatial variability of streamflow over a region. The FNN method is a dimensionality-based approach, where the dimension of the time series represents its variability. The method uses phase space reconstruction and nearest neighbor concepts, and identifies false neighbors in the reconstructed phase space. The FNN method is applied to monthly streamflow data monitored over a period of 53 years (1950-2002) in an extensive network of 639 stations in the contiguous United States (US). Since selection of delay time in phase space reconstruction may influence the FNN outcomes, analysis is carried out for five different delay time values: monthly, seasonal, and annual separation of data as well as delay time values obtained using autocorrelation function (ACF) and average mutual information (AMI) methods. The FNN dimensions for the 639 streamflow series are generally identified to range from 4 to 12 (with very few exceptional cases), indicating a wide range of variability in the dynamics of streamflow across the contiguous US. However, the FNN dimensions for a majority of the streamflow series are found to be low (less than or equal to 6), suggesting low level of complexity in streamflow dynamics in most of the individual stations and over many sub-regions. The FNN dimension estimates also reveal that streamflow dynamics in the western parts of the US (including far west, northwestern, and southwestern parts) generally exhibit much greater variability compared to that in the eastern parts of the US (including far east, northeastern, and southeastern parts), although there are also differences among 'pockets' within these regions. These results are useful for identification of appropriate model complexity at individual stations, patterns across regions and sub-regions, interpolation and extrapolation of data, and catchment classification. An attempt is also made to relate the FNN dimensions with catchment characteristics and streamflow statistical properties.

Dynamic mortar finite element method for modeling of shear rupture on frictional rough surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tal, Yuval; Hager, Bradford H.

2017-09-01

This paper presents a mortar-based finite element formulation for modeling the dynamics of shear rupture on rough interfaces governed by slip-weakening and rate and state (RS) friction laws, focusing on the dynamics of earthquakes. The method utilizes the dual Lagrange multipliers and the primal-dual active set strategy concepts, together with a consistent discretization and linearization of the contact forces and constraints, and the friction laws to obtain a semi-smooth Newton method. The discretization of the RS friction law involves a procedure to condense out the state variables, thus eliminating the addition of another set of unknowns into the system. Several numerical examples of shear rupture on frictional rough interfaces demonstrate the efficiency of the method and examine the effects of the different time discretization schemes on the convergence, energy conservation, and the time evolution of shear traction and slip rate.

Metal-organic frameworks with dynamic interlocked components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vukotic, V. Nicholas; Harris, Kristopher J.; Zhu, Kelong; Schurko, Robert W.; Loeb, Stephen J.

2012-06-01

The dynamics of mechanically interlocked molecules such as rotaxanes and catenanes have been studied in solution as examples of rudimentary molecular switches and machines, but in this medium, the molecules are randomly dispersed and their motion incoherent. As a strategy for achieving a higher level of molecular organization, we have constructed a metal-organic framework material using a [2]rotaxane as the organic linker and binuclear Cu(II) units as the nodes. Activation of the as-synthesized material creates a void space inside the rigid framework that allows the soft macrocyclic ring of the [2]rotaxane to rotate rapidly, unimpeded by neighbouring molecular components. Variable-temperature 13C and 2H solid-state NMR experiments are used to characterize the nature and rate of the dynamic processes occurring inside this unique material. These results provide a blueprint for the future creation of solid-state molecular switches and molecular machines based on mechanically interlocked molecules.

Photoexcited Carrier Dynamics of Cu 2S Thin Films

DOE PAGES

Riha, Shannon C.; Schaller, Richard D.; Gosztola, David J.; ...

2014-11-11

Copper sulfide is a simple binary material with promising attributes for low-cost thin film photovoltaics. However, stable Cu 2S-based device efficiencies approaching 10% free from cadmium have yet to be realized. In this paper, transient absorption spectroscopy is used to investigate the dynamics of the photoexcited state of isolated Cu 2S thin films prepared by atomic layer deposition or vapor-based cation exchange of ZnS. While a number of variables including film thickness, carrier concentration, surface oxidation, and grain boundary passivation were examined, grain structure alone was found to correlate with longer lifetimes. A map of excited state dynamics is deducedmore » from the spectral evolution from 300 fs to 300 μs. Finally, revealing the effects of grain morphology on the photophysical properties of Cu 2S is a crucial step toward reaching high efficiencies in operationally stable Cu 2S thin film photovoltaics.« less

The Principle of Energetic Consistency

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohn, Stephen E.

2009-01-01

A basic result in estimation theory is that the minimum variance estimate of the dynamical state, given the observations, is the conditional mean estimate. This result holds independently of the specifics of any dynamical or observation nonlinearity or stochasticity, requiring only that the probability density function of the state, conditioned on the observations, has two moments. For nonlinear dynamics that conserve a total energy, this general result implies the principle of energetic consistency: if the dynamical variables are taken to be the natural energy variables, then the sum of the total energy of the conditional mean and the trace of the conditional covariance matrix (the total variance) is constant between observations. Ensemble Kalman filtering methods are designed to approximate the evolution of the conditional mean and covariance matrix. For them the principle of energetic consistency holds independently of ensemble size, even with covariance localization. However, full Kalman filter experiments with advection dynamics have shown that a small amount of numerical dissipation can cause a large, state-dependent loss of total variance, to the detriment of filter performance. The principle of energetic consistency offers a simple way to test whether this spurious loss of variance limits ensemble filter performance in full-blown applications. The classical second-moment closure (third-moment discard) equations also satisfy the principle of energetic consistency, independently of the rank of the conditional covariance matrix. Low-rank approximation of these equations offers an energetically consistent, computationally viable alternative to ensemble filtering. Current formulations of long-window, weak-constraint, four-dimensional variational methods are designed to approximate the conditional mode rather than the conditional mean. Thus they neglect the nonlinear bias term in the second-moment closure equation for the conditional mean. The principle of energetic consistency implies that, to precisely the extent that growing modes are important in data assimilation, this term is also important.

Development of an Integrated Nonlinear Aeroservoelastic Flight Dynamic Model of the NASA Generic Transport Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan; Ting, Eric

2018-01-01

This paper describes a recent development of an integrated fully coupled aeroservoelastic flight dynamic model of the NASA Generic Transport Model (GTM). The integrated model couples nonlinear flight dynamics to a nonlinear aeroelastic model of the GTM. The nonlinearity includes the coupling of the rigid-body aircraft states in the partial derivatives of the aeroelastic angle of attack. Aeroservoelastic modeling of the control surfaces which are modeled by the Variable Camber Continuous Trailing Edge Flap is also conducted. The R.T. Jones' method is implemented to approximate unsteady aerodynamics. Simulations of the GTM are conducted with simulated continuous and discrete gust loads..

Synchronization of heteroclinic circuits through learning in coupled neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selskii, Anton; Makarov, Valeri A.

2016-01-01

The synchronization of oscillatory activity in neural networks is usually implemented by coupling the state variables describing neuronal dynamics. Here we study another, but complementary mechanism based on a learning process with memory. A driver network, acting as a teacher, exhibits winner-less competition (WLC) dynamics, while a driven network, a learner, tunes its internal couplings according to the oscillations observed in the teacher. We show that under appropriate training the learner can "copy" the coupling structure and thus synchronize oscillations with the teacher. The replication of the WLC dynamics occurs for intermediate memory lengths only, consequently, the learner network exhibits a phenomenon of learning resonance.

Computer simulation of multigrid body dynamics and control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swaminadham, M.; Moon, Young I.; Venkayya, V. B.

1990-01-01

The objective is to set up and analyze benchmark problems on multibody dynamics and to verify the predictions of two multibody computer simulation codes. TREETOPS and DISCOS have been used to run three example problems - one degree-of-freedom spring mass dashpot system, an inverted pendulum system, and a triple pendulum. To study the dynamics and control interaction, an inverted planar pendulum with an external body force and a torsional control spring was modeled as a hinge connected two-rigid body system. TREETOPS and DISCOS affected the time history simulation of this problem. System state space variables and their time derivatives from two simulation codes were compared.

Dynamical compensation and structural identifiability of biological models: Analysis, implications, and reconciliation.

PubMed

Villaverde, Alejandro F; Banga, Julio R

2017-11-01

The concept of dynamical compensation has been recently introduced to describe the ability of a biological system to keep its output dynamics unchanged in the face of varying parameters. However, the original definition of dynamical compensation amounts to lack of structural identifiability. This is relevant if model parameters need to be estimated, as is often the case in biological modelling. Care should we taken when using an unidentifiable model to extract biological insight: the estimated values of structurally unidentifiable parameters are meaningless, and model predictions about unmeasured state variables can be wrong. Taking this into account, we explore alternative definitions of dynamical compensation that do not necessarily imply structural unidentifiability. Accordingly, we show different ways in which a model can be made identifiable while exhibiting dynamical compensation. Our analyses enable the use of the new concept of dynamical compensation in the context of parameter identification, and reconcile it with the desirable property of structural identifiability.

Dynamic Latent Trait Models with Mixed Hidden Markov Structure for Mixed Longitudinal Outcomes.

PubMed

Zhang, Yue; Berhane, Kiros

2016-01-01

We propose a general Bayesian joint modeling approach to model mixed longitudinal outcomes from the exponential family for taking into account any differential misclassification that may exist among categorical outcomes. Under this framework, outcomes observed without measurement error are related to latent trait variables through generalized linear mixed effect models. The misclassified outcomes are related to the latent class variables, which represent unobserved real states, using mixed hidden Markov models (MHMM). In addition to enabling the estimation of parameters in prevalence, transition and misclassification probabilities, MHMMs capture cluster level heterogeneity. A transition modeling structure allows the latent trait and latent class variables to depend on observed predictors at the same time period and also on latent trait and latent class variables at previous time periods for each individual. Simulation studies are conducted to make comparisons with traditional models in order to illustrate the gains from the proposed approach. The new approach is applied to data from the Southern California Children Health Study (CHS) to jointly model questionnaire based asthma state and multiple lung function measurements in order to gain better insight about the underlying biological mechanism that governs the inter-relationship between asthma state and lung function development.

Variable Dynamic Testbed Vehicle Dynamics Analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-03-01

ANTI-ROLL BAR, EMULATION, FOUR-WHEEL-STEERING, LATERAL RESPONSE CHARACTERISTICS, SIMULATION, VARIABLE DYNAMIC TESTBED VEHICLE, INTELLIGENT VEHICLE INITIATIVE OR IVI : THE VARIABLE DYNAMIC TESTBED VEHICLE (VDTV) CONCEPT HAS BEEN PROPOSED AS A TOOL...

Adjustment of prior constraints for an improved crop monitoring with the Earth Observation Land Data Assimilation System (EO-LDAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Truckenbrodt, Sina C.; Gómez-Dans, José; Stelmaszczuk-Górska, Martyna A.; Chernetskiy, Maxim; Schmullius, Christiane C.

2017-04-01

Throughout the past decades various satellite sensors have been launched that record reflectance in the optical domain and facilitate comprehensive monitoring of the vegetation-covered land surface from space. The interaction of photons with the canopy, leaves and soil that determines the spectrum of reflected sunlight can be simulated with radiative transfer models (RTMs). The inversion of RTMs permits the derivation of state variables such as leaf area index (LAI) and leaf chlorophyll content from top-of-canopy reflectance. Space-borne data are, however, insufficient for an unambiguous derivation of state variables and additional constraints are required to resolve this ill-posed problem. Data assimilation techniques permit the conflation of various information with due allowance for associated uncertainties. The Earth Observation Land Data Assimilation System (EO-LDAS) integrates RTMs into a dynamic process model that describes the temporal evolution of state variables. In addition, prior information is included to further constrain the inversion and enhance the state variable derivation. In previous studies on EO-LDAS, prior information was represented by temporally constant values for all investigated state variables, while information about their phenological evolution was neglected. Here, we examine to what extent the implementation of prior information reflecting the phenological variability improves the performance of EO-LDAS with respect to the monitoring of crops on the agricultural Gebesee test site (Central Germany). Various routines for the generation of prior information are tested. This involves the usage of data on state variables that was acquired in previous years as well as the application of phenological models. The performance of EO-LDAS with the newly implemented prior information is tested based on medium resolution satellite imagery (e.g., RapidEye REIS, Sentinel-2 MSI, Landsat-7 ETM+ and Landsat-8 OLI). The predicted state variables are validated against in situ data from the Gebesee test site that were acquired with a weekly to fortnightly resolution throughout the growing seasons of 2010, 2013, 2014 and 2016. Furthermore, the results are compared with the outcome of using constant values as prior information. In this presentation, the EO-LDAS scheme and results obtained from different prior information are presented.

Reduced-order dynamic output feedback control of uncertain discrete-time Markov jump linear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morais, Cecília F.; Braga, Márcio F.; Oliveira, Ricardo C. L. F.; Peres, Pedro L. D.

2017-11-01

This paper deals with the problem of designing reduced-order robust dynamic output feedback controllers for discrete-time Markov jump linear systems (MJLS) with polytopic state space matrices and uncertain transition probabilities. Starting from a full order, mode-dependent and polynomially parameter-dependent dynamic output feedback controller, sufficient linear matrix inequality based conditions are provided for the existence of a robust reduced-order dynamic output feedback stabilising controller with complete, partial or none mode dependency assuring an upper bound to the ? or the ? norm of the closed-loop system. The main advantage of the proposed method when compared to the existing approaches is the fact that the dynamic controllers are exclusively expressed in terms of the decision variables of the problem. In other words, the matrices that define the controller realisation do not depend explicitly on the state space matrices associated with the modes of the MJLS. As a consequence, the method is specially suitable to handle order reduction or cluster availability constraints in the context of ? or ? dynamic output feedback control of discrete-time MJLS. Additionally, as illustrated by means of numerical examples, the proposed approach can provide less conservative results than other conditions in the literature.

Perpetual extraction of work from a nonequilibrium dynamical system under Markovian feedback control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosugi, Taichi

2013-09-01

By treating both control parameters and dynamical variables as probabilistic variables, we develop a succinct theory of perpetual extraction of work from a generic classical nonequilibrium system subject to a heat bath via repeated measurements under a Markovian feedback control. It is demonstrated that a problem for perpetual extraction of work in a nonequilibrium system is reduced to a problem of Markov chain in the higher-dimensional phase space. We derive a version of the detailed fluctuation theorem, which was originally derived for classical nonequilibrium systems by Horowitz and Vaikuntanathan [Phys. Rev. EPLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.82.061120 82, 061120 (2010)], in a form suitable for the analyses of perpetual extraction of work. Since our theory is formulated for generic dynamics of probability distribution function in phase space, its application to a physical system is straightforward. As simple applications of the theory, two exactly solvable models are analyzed. The one is a nonequilibrium two-state system and the other is a particle confined to a one-dimensional harmonic potential in thermal equilibrium. For the former example, it is demonstrated that the observer on the transitory steps to the stationary state can lose energy and that work larger than that achieved in the stationary state can be extracted. For the latter example, it is demonstrated that the optimal protocol for the extraction of work via repeated measurements can differ from that via a single measurement. The validity of our version of the detailed fluctuation theorem, which determines the upper bound of the expected work in the stationary state, is also confirmed for both examples. These observations provide useful insights into exploration for realistic modeling of a machine that extracts work from its environment.

Singular Perturbations and Time Scales in Modeling and Control of Dynamic Systems,

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-11-01

Madanic, "Closed-Loop Stackelberg Stategies for Singularly Perturbed Linear Quadratic Problem," IEEE Transactions on Automtic Control, Vol. AC-25, No...of the state variables. On the other hand the com- (15 damped high steqenc oscillalor mode cannsome o \\s/ del are not separable. In this ’ mixed ’ case...are found to be mixed and hence is not electromechanical Interactions and the single ma- suitable for direct state separation into a slow chine

Conditional bistability, a generic cellular mnemonic mechanism for robust and flexible working memory computations.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Guillaume; Sarazin, Matthieu; Clemente, Alexandra; Holden, Stephanie; Paz, Jeanne T; Delord, Bruno

2018-04-30

Persistent neural activity, the substrate of working memory, is thought to emerge from synaptic reverberation within recurrent networks. However, reverberation models do not robustly explain fundamental dynamics of persistent activity, including high-spiking irregularity, large intertrial variability, and state transitions. While cellular bistability may contribute to persistent activity, its rigidity appears incompatible with persistent activity labile characteristics. Here, we unravel in a cellular model a form of spike-mediated conditional bistability that is robust, generic and provides a rich repertoire of mnemonic computations. Under asynchronous synaptic inputs of the awakened state, conditional bistability generates spiking/bursting episodes, accounting for the irregularity, variability and state transitions characterizing persistent activity. This mechanism has likely been overlooked because of the sub-threshold input it requires and we predict how to assess it experimentally. Our results suggest a reexamination of the role of intrinsic properties in the collective network dynamics responsible for flexible working memory. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT This study unravels a novel form of intrinsic neuronal property, i.e. conditional bistability. We show that, thanks of its conditional character, conditional bistability favors the emergence of flexible and robust forms of persistent activity in PFC neural networks, in opposition to previously studied classical forms of absolute bistability. Specifically, we demonstrate for the first time that conditional bistability 1) is a generic biophysical spike-dependent mechanism of layer V pyramidal neurons in the PFC and that 2) it accounts for essential neurodynamical features for the organisation and flexibility of PFC persistent activity (the large irregularity and intertrial variability of the discharge and its organization under discrete stable states), which remain unexplained in a robust fashion by current models. Copyright © 2018 the authors.

Secondary STEM Educational Reform. Secondary Education in a Changing World

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Carla C., Ed.

2011-01-01

Federal and state funding agencies have invested billions of dollars into secondary STEM (Science, Technology, Education, Mathematics) educational reform over the past decade. This volume addresses the interplay of external and internal variables associated with school reform and how this dynamic has impacted many efforts. The goal of this book is…

SEASONAL VARIATIONS OF NITRIC OXIDE FLUX FROM AGRICULTURAL SOILS IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

Fluxes of nitric oxide (NO) were measured from the summer of 1994 to the spring of 1995 from an intensively managed agricultural soil using a dynamic flow through chamber technique in order to study the seasonal variability in the emissions of NO. The measurements were made on a ...

Utilizing multiple state variables to improve the dynamic range of analog switching in a memristor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, YeonJoo; Kim, Sungho; Lu, Wei D.

2015-10-01

Memristors and memristive systems have been extensively studied for data storage and computing applications such as neuromorphic systems. To act as synapses in neuromorphic systems, the memristor needs to exhibit analog resistive switching (RS) behavior with incremental conductance change. In this study, we show that the dynamic range of the analog RS behavior can be significantly enhanced in a tantalum-oxide-based memristor. By controlling different state variables enabled by different physical effects during the RS process, the gradual filament expansion stage can be selectively enhanced without strongly affecting the abrupt filament length growth stage. Detailed physics-based modeling further verified the observed experimental effects and revealed the roles of oxygen vacancy drift and diffusion processes, and how the diffusion process can be selectively enhanced during the filament expansion stage. These findings lead to more desirable and reliable memristor behaviors for analog computing applications. Additionally, the ability to selectively control different internal physical processes demonstrated in the current study provides guidance for continued device optimization of memristor devices in general.

How Well Has Global Ocean Heat Content Variability Been Measured?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, A.; Weiss, J.; Fox-Kemper, B.; Fabienne, G.

2016-12-01

We introduce a new strategy that uses synthetic observations of an ensemble of model simulations to test the fidelity of an observational strategy, quantifying how well it captures the statistics of variability. We apply this test to the 0-700m global ocean heat content anomaly (OHCA) as observed with in-situ measurements by the Coriolis Dataset for Reanalysis (CORA), using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3.5. One-year running mean OHCAs for the years 2005 onward are found to faithfully capture the variability. During these years, synthetic observations of the model are strongly correlated at 0.94±0.06 with the actual state of the model. Overall, sub-annual variability and data before 2005 are significantly affected by the variability of the observing system. In contrast, the sometimes-used weighted integral of observations is not a good indicator of OHCA as variability in the observing system contaminates dynamical variability.

An opinion-driven behavioral dynamics model for addictive behaviors

DOE PAGES

Moore, Thomas W.; Finley, Patrick D.; Apelberg, Benjamin J.; ...

2015-04-08

We present a model of behavioral dynamics that combines a social network-based opinion dynamics model with behavioral mapping. The behavioral component is discrete and history-dependent to represent situations in which an individual’s behavior is initially driven by opinion and later constrained by physiological or psychological conditions that serve to maintain the behavior. Additionally, individuals are modeled as nodes in a social network connected by directed edges. Parameter sweeps illustrate model behavior and the effects of individual parameters and parameter interactions on model results. Mapping a continuous opinion variable into a discrete behavioral space induces clustering on directed networks. Clusters providemore » targets of opportunity for influencing the network state; however, the smaller the network the greater the stochasticity and potential variability in outcomes. Furthermore, this has implications both for behaviors that are influenced by close relationships verses those influenced by societal norms and for the effectiveness of strategies for influencing those behaviors.« less

A dynamic programming-based particle swarm optimization algorithm for an inventory management problem under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jiuping; Zeng, Ziqiang; Han, Bernard; Lei, Xiao

2013-07-01

This article presents a dynamic programming-based particle swarm optimization (DP-based PSO) algorithm for solving an inventory management problem for large-scale construction projects under a fuzzy random environment. By taking into account the purchasing behaviour and strategy under rules of international bidding, a multi-objective fuzzy random dynamic programming model is constructed. To deal with the uncertainties, a hybrid crisp approach is used to transform fuzzy random parameters into fuzzy variables that are subsequently defuzzified by using an expected value operator with optimistic-pessimistic index. The iterative nature of the authors' model motivates them to develop a DP-based PSO algorithm. More specifically, their approach treats the state variables as hidden parameters. This in turn eliminates many redundant feasibility checks during initialization and particle updates at each iteration. Results and sensitivity analysis are presented to highlight the performance of the authors' optimization method, which is very effective as compared to the standard PSO algorithm.

Study on the complexity pricing game and coordination of the duopoly air conditioner market with disturbance demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Junhai; Xie, Lei

2016-03-01

The paper focuses on the dynamic pricing game of the duopoly air conditioner market with disturbance in demand and analyzes the influence of disturbance on the dynamic game system. Considering the demand for products, such as air conditioner, varies with different seasons, we assume three cases based on the condition of disturbance, including growth market (Case 1), declining market (Case 2) and completely random market (Case 3). By analyzing these three cases and making comparison among them, the paper shows that the growth market is more sensitive to the changing parameters such as the adjustment variable and the competitive factor than the declining market. It is more difficult to keep the system stable in a growth market. Although the demand is completely random, the dynamic system can reach a stable state, on condition that the adjustment variable is small enough. The results also indicate that the bullwhip effect between the order quantity and the actual demand is weakened gradually along with the price adjustment.

Hydrocentric view of Agro-ecosystem Resiliency to Extreme Hydrometeorological and Climate Events in the High Plains, US.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Arriola, Francisco; Sharma, Ashutosh; Werner, Katherine; Chacon, Juan-Carlos; Corzo, Gerald; Goyal, Manish-Kumar

2017-04-01

An increasing incidence of Hydrometeorological and Climate Extreme Events (EHCEs) is challenging food, water, and ecosystem services security at local to global contexts. This study aims to understand how a large-scale representation of agroecosystems and ecosystems respond to EHCE in the Northern Highplains, US. To track such responses the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) Land Surface Hydrology model was used and two experiments were implemented. The first experiment uses the LAI MODIS15A2 product to capture dynamic responses of vegetation with a time span from 2000 to 2013. The second experiment used a climatological fixed seasonal cycle calculated as the average from the 2000-2013 dynamic MODIS15A2 product to isolate vegetation from soil physical responses. Based on the analyses of multiple hydrological variables and state variables and high-level organization of agroecosystems and ecosystems, we evidence how the influence of droughts and anomalously wet conditions affect hydrological resilience at large scale.

Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

PubMed

Makin, Joseph G; Dichter, Benjamin K; Sabes, Philip N

2015-11-01

Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.

Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes

PubMed Central

Sabes, Philip N.

2015-01-01

Tracking moving objects, including one’s own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, “probabilistic population codes.” We show that a recurrent neural network—a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)—that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states. PMID:26540152

A Markov Environment-dependent Hurricane Intensity Model and Its Comparison with Multiple Dynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, R.; Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.

2017-12-01

A Markov environment-dependent hurricane intensity model (MeHiM) is developed to simulate the climatology of hurricane intensity given the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved discrete states representing respectively storm's slow, moderate, and rapid intensification (and deintensification). Each state is associated with a probability distribution of intensity change. The storm's movement from one state to another, regarded as a Markov chain, is described by a transition probability matrix. The initial state is estimated with a Bayesian approach. All three model components (initial intensity, state transition, and intensity change) are dependent on environmental variables including potential intensity, vertical wind shear, midlevel relative humidity, and ocean mixing characteristics. This dependent Markov model of hurricane intensity shows a significant improvement over previous statistical models (e.g., linear, nonlinear, and finite mixture models) in estimating the distributions of 6-h and 24-h intensity change, lifetime maximum intensity, and landfall intensity, etc. Here we compare MeHiM with various dynamical models, including a global climate model [High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution model (HiFLOR)], a regional hurricane model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model), and a simplified hurricane dynamic model [Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System (CHIPS)] and its newly developed fast simulator. The MeHiM developed based on the reanalysis data is applied to estimate the intensity of simulated storms to compare with the dynamical-model predictions under the current climate. The dependences of hurricanes on the environment under current and future projected climates in the various models will also be compared statistically.

A time domain inverse dynamic method for the end point tracking control of a flexible manipulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwon, Dong-Soo; Book, Wayne J.

1991-01-01

The inverse dynamic equation of a flexible manipulator was solved in the time domain. By dividing the inverse system equation into the causal part and the anticausal part, we calculated the torque and the trajectories of all state variables for a given end point trajectory. The interpretation of this method in the frequency domain was explained in detail using the two-sided Laplace transform and the convolution integral. The open loop control of the inverse dynamic method shows an excellent result in simulation. For real applications, a practical control strategy is proposed by adding a feedback tracking control loop to the inverse dynamic feedforward control, and its good experimental performance is presented.

F-111B in Ames 40x80 Foot Wind Tunnel.

NASA Image and Video Library

1969-02-06

Installation Photos, 3/4 front view from below. F-111B in Ames 40x80 Foot Wind Tunnel. The General Dynamics/Grumman F-111B was a long-range carrier-based interceptor aircraft that was planned to be a follow-on to the F-4 Phantom II. The F-111B was developed in the 1960s by General Dynamics in conjunction with Grumman for the United States Navy (USN) as part of the joint Tactical Fighter Experimental (TFX) with the United States Air Force (USAF) to produce a common fighter for the services that could perform a variety of missions. It incorporated innovations such as variable-geometry wings, afterburning turbofan engines, and a long-range radar and missile weapons system.

Density profiles of granular gases studied by molecular dynamics and Brownian bridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peñuñuri, F.; Montoya, J. A.; Carvente, O.

2018-02-01

Despite the inherent frictional forces and dissipative collisions, confined granular matter can be regarded as a system in a stationary state if we inject energy continuously. Under these conditions, both the density and the granular temperature are, in general, non-monotonic variables along the height of the container. In consequence, an analytical description of a granular system is hard to conceive. Here, by using molecular dynamics simulations, we measure the packing fraction profiles for a vertically vibrating three-dimensional granular system in several gaseous-like stationary states. We show that by using the Brownian bridge concept, the determined packing fraction profiles can be reproduced accurately and give a complete description of the distribution of the particles inside the simulation box.

Low-speed aerodynamic test of an axisymmetric supersonic inlet with variable cowl slot

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powell, A. G.; Welge, H. R.; Trefny, C. J.

1985-01-01

The experimental low-speed aerodynamic characteristics of an axisymmetric mixed-compression supersonic inlet with variable cowl slot are described. The model consisted of the NASA P-inlet centerbody and redesigned cowl with variable cowl slot powered by the JT8D single-stage fan simulator and driven by an air turbine. The model was tested in the NASA Lewis Research Center 9- by 15-foot low-speed tunnel at Mach numbers of 0, 0.1, and 0.2 over a range of flows, cowl slot openings, centerbody positions, and angles of attack. The variable cowl slot was effective in minimizing lip separation at high velocity ratios, showed good steady-state and dynamic distortion characteristics, and had good angle-of-attack tolerance.

Intercomparison of Downscaling Methods on Hydrological Impact for Earth System Model of NE United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, P.; Fekete, B. M.; Rosenzweig, B.; Lengyel, F.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

2012-12-01

Atmospheric dynamics are essential inputs to Regional-scale Earth System Models (RESMs). Variables including surface air temperature, total precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed and humidity must be downscaled from coarse-resolution, global General Circulation Models (GCMs) to the high temporal and spatial resolution required for regional modeling. However, this downscaling procedure can be challenging due to the need to correct for bias from the GCM and to capture the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the regional dynamics. In this study, the results obtained using several downscaling techniques and observational datasets were compared for a RESM of the Northeast Corridor of the United States. Previous efforts have enhanced GCM model outputs through bias correction using novel techniques. For example, the Climate Impact Research at Potsdam Institute developed a series of bias-corrected GCMs towards the next generation climate change scenarios (Schiermeier, 2012; Moss et al., 2010). Techniques to better represent the heterogeneity of climate variables have also been improved using statistical approaches (Maurer, 2008; Abatzoglou, 2011). For this study, four downscaling approaches to transform bias-corrected HADGEM2-ES Model output (daily at .5 x .5 degree) to the 3'*3'(longitude*latitude) daily and monthly resolution required for the Northeast RESM were compared: 1) Bilinear Interpolation, 2) Daily bias-corrected spatial downscaling (D-BCSD) with Gridded Meteorological Datasets (developed by Abazoglou 2011), 3) Monthly bias-corrected spatial disaggregation (M-BCSD) with CRU(Climate Research Unit) and 4) Dynamic Downscaling based on Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Spatio-temporal analysis of the variability in precipitation was conducted over the study domain. Validation of the variables of different downscaling methods against observational datasets was carried out for assessment of the downscaled climate model outputs. The effects of using the different approaches to downscale atmospheric variables (specifically air temperature and precipitation) for use as inputs to the Water Balance Model (WBMPlus, Vorosmarty et al., 1998;Wisser et al., 2008) for simulation of daily discharge and monthly stream flow in the Northeast US for a 100-year period in the 21st century were also assessed. Statistical techniques especially monthly bias-corrected spatial disaggregation (M-BCSD) showed potential advantage among other methods for the daily discharge and monthly stream flow simulation. However, Dynamic Downscaling will provide important complements to the statistical approaches tested.

Late Holocene sea level variability and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.; Farmer, Jesse R.; Marzen, R. E.; Thomas, E.; Varekamp, J.C.

2014-01-01

Pre-twentieth century sea level (SL) variability remains poorly understood due to limits of tide gauge records, low temporal resolution of tidal marsh records, and regional anomalies caused by dynamic ocean processes, notably multidecadal changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We examined SL and AMOC variability along the eastern United States over the last 2000 years, using a SL curve constructed from proxy sea surface temperature (SST) records from Chesapeake Bay, and twentieth century SL-sea surface temperature (SST) relations derived from tide gauges and instrumental SST. The SL curve shows multidecadal-scale variability (20–30 years) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA), as well as the twentieth century. During these SL oscillations, short-term rates ranged from 2 to 4 mm yr−1, roughly similar to those of the last few decades. These oscillations likely represent internal modes of climate variability related to AMOC variability and originating at high latitudes, although the exact mechanisms remain unclear. Results imply that dynamic ocean changes, in addition to thermosteric, glacio-eustatic, or glacio-isostatic processes are an inherent part of SL variability in coastal regions, even during millennial-scale climate oscillations such as the MCA and LIA and should be factored into efforts that use tide gauges and tidal marsh sediments to understand global sea level rise.

Batch-mode Reinforcement Learning for improved hydro-environmental systems management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelletti, A.; Galelli, S.; Restelli, M.; Soncini-Sessa, R.

2010-12-01

Despite the great progresses made in the last decades, the optimal management of hydro-environmental systems still remains a very active and challenging research area. The combination of multiple, often conflicting interests, high non-linearities of the physical processes and the management objectives, strong uncertainties in the inputs, and high dimensional state makes the problem challenging and intriguing. Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) is one of the most suitable methods for designing (Pareto) optimal management policies preserving the original problem complexity. However, it suffers from a dual curse, which, de facto, prevents its practical application to even reasonably complex water systems. (i) Computational requirement grows exponentially with state and control dimension (Bellman's curse of dimensionality), so that SDP can not be used with water systems where the state vector includes more than few (2-3) units. (ii) An explicit model of each system's component is required (curse of modelling) to anticipate the effects of the system transitions, i.e. any information included into the SDP framework can only be either a state variable described by a dynamic model or a stochastic disturbance, independent in time, with the associated pdf. Any exogenous information that could effectively improve the system operation cannot be explicitly considered in taking the management decision, unless a dynamic model is identified for each additional information, thus adding to the problem complexity through the curse of dimensionality (additional state variables). To mitigate this dual curse, the combined use of batch-mode Reinforcement Learning (bRL) and Dynamic Model Reduction (DMR) techniques is explored in this study. bRL overcomes the curse of modelling by replacing explicit modelling with an external simulator and/or historical observations. The curse of dimensionality is averted using a functional approximation of the SDP value function based on proper non-linear regressors. DMR reduces the complexity and the associated computational requirements of non-linear distributed process based models, making them suitable for being included into optimization schemes. Results from real world applications of the approach are also presented, including reservoir operation with both quality and quantity targets.

Protein functional landscapes, dynamics, allostery: a tortuous path towards a universal theoretical framework.

PubMed

Zhuravlev, Pavel I; Papoian, Garegin A

2010-08-01

Energy landscape theories have provided a common ground for understanding the protein folding problem, which once seemed to be overwhelmingly complicated. At the same time, the native state was found to be an ensemble of interconverting states with frustration playing a more important role compared to the folding problem. The landscape of the folded protein - the native landscape - is glassier than the folding landscape; hence, a general description analogous to the folding theories is difficult to achieve. On the other hand, the native basin phase volume is much smaller, allowing a protein to fully sample its native energy landscape on the biological timescales. Current computational resources may also be used to perform this sampling for smaller proteins, to build a 'topographical map' of the native landscape that can be used for subsequent analysis. Several major approaches to representing this topographical map are highlighted in this review, including the construction of kinetic networks, hierarchical trees and free energy surfaces with subsequent structural and kinetic analyses. In this review, we extensively discuss the important question of choosing proper collective coordinates characterizing functional motions. In many cases, the substates on the native energy landscape, which represent different functional states, can be used to obtain variables that are well suited for building free energy surfaces and analyzing the protein's functional dynamics. Normal mode analysis can provide such variables in cases where functional motions are dictated by the molecule's architecture. Principal component analysis is a more expensive way of inferring the essential variables from the protein's motions, one that requires a long molecular dynamics simulation. Finally, the two popular models for the allosteric switching mechanism, 'preexisting equilibrium' and 'induced fit', are interpreted within the energy landscape paradigm as extreme points of a continuum of transition mechanisms. Some experimental evidence illustrating each of these two models, as well as intermediate mechanisms, is presented and discussed.

Cognitive Workload and Psychophysiological Parameters During Multitask Activity in Helicopter Pilots.

PubMed

Gaetan, Sophie; Dousset, Erick; Marqueste, Tanguy; Bringoux, Lionel; Bourdin, Christophe; Vercher, Jean-Louis; Besson, Patricia

2015-12-01

Helicopter pilots are involved in a complex multitask activity, implying overuse of cognitive resources, which may result in piloting task impairment or in decision-making failure. Studies usually investigate this phenomenon in well-controlled, poorly ecological situations by focusing on the correlation between physiological values and either cognitive workload or emotional state. This study aimed at jointly exploring workload induced by a realistic simulated helicopter flight mission and emotional state, as well as physiological markers. The experiment took place in the helicopter full flight dynamic simulator. Six participants had to fly on two missions. Workload level, skin conductance, RMS-EMG, and emotional state were assessed. Joint analysis of psychological and physiological parameters associated with workload estimation revealed particular dynamics in each of three profiles. 1) Expert pilots showed a slight increase of measured physiological parameters associated with the increase in difficulty level. Workload estimates never reached the highest level and the emotional state for this profile only referred to positive emotions with low emotional intensity. 2) Non-Expert pilots showed increasing physiological values as the perceived workload increased. However, their emotional state referred to either positive or negative emotions, with a greater variability in emotional intensity. 3) Intermediate pilots were similar to Expert pilots regarding emotional states and similar to Non-Expert pilots regarding physiological patterns. Overall, high interindividual variability of these results highlight the complex link between physiological and psychological parameters with workload, and question whether physiology alone could predict a pilot's inability to make the right decision at the right time.

A physics-based fractional order model and state of energy estimation for lithium ion batteries. Part I: Model development and observability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaoyu; Fan, Guodong; Pan, Ke; Wei, Guo; Zhu, Chunbo; Rizzoni, Giorgio; Canova, Marcello

2017-11-01

The design of a lumped parameter battery model preserving physical meaning is especially desired by the automotive researchers and engineers due to the strong demand for battery system control, estimation, diagnosis and prognostics. In light of this, a novel simplified fractional order electrochemical model is developed for electric vehicle (EV) applications in this paper. In the model, a general fractional order transfer function is designed for the solid phase lithium ion diffusion approximation. The dynamic characteristics of the electrolyte concentration overpotential are approximated by a first-order resistance-capacitor transfer function in the electrolyte phase. The Ohmic resistances and electrochemical reaction kinetics resistance are simplified to a lumped Ohmic resistance parameter. Overall, the number of model parameters is reduced from 30 to 9, yet the accuracy of the model is still guaranteed. In order to address the dynamics of phase-change phenomenon in the active particle during charging and discharging, variable solid-state diffusivity is taken into consideration in the model. Also, the observability of the model is analyzed on two types of lithium ion batteries subsequently. Results show the fractional order model with variable solid-state diffusivity agrees very well with experimental data at various current input conditions and is suitable for electric vehicle applications.

Event triggered state estimation techniques for power systems with integrated variable energy resources.

PubMed

Francy, Reshma C; Farid, Amro M; Youcef-Toumi, Kamal

2015-05-01

For many decades, state estimation (SE) has been a critical technology for energy management systems utilized by power system operators. Over time, it has become a mature technology that provides an accurate representation of system state under fairly stable and well understood system operation. The integration of variable energy resources (VERs) such as wind and solar generation, however, introduces new fast frequency dynamics and uncertainties into the system. Furthermore, such renewable energy is often integrated into the distribution system thus requiring real-time monitoring all the way to the periphery of the power grid topology and not just the (central) transmission system. The conventional solution is two fold: solve the SE problem (1) at a faster rate in accordance with the newly added VER dynamics and (2) for the entire power grid topology including the transmission and distribution systems. Such an approach results in exponentially growing problem sets which need to be solver at faster rates. This work seeks to address these two simultaneous requirements and builds upon two recent SE methods which incorporate event-triggering such that the state estimator is only called in the case of considerable novelty in the evolution of the system state. The first method incorporates only event-triggering while the second adds the concept of tracking. Both SE methods are demonstrated on the standard IEEE 14-bus system and the results are observed for a specific bus for two difference scenarios: (1) a spike in the wind power injection and (2) ramp events with higher variability. Relative to traditional state estimation, the numerical case studies showed that the proposed methods can result in computational time reductions of 90%. These results were supported by a theoretical discussion of the computational complexity of three SE techniques. The work concludes that the proposed SE techniques demonstrate practical improvements to the computational complexity of classical state estimation. In such a way, state estimation can continue to support the necessary control actions to mitigate the imbalances resulting from the uncertainties in renewables. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiproxy reconstruction of tropical Pacific Holocene temperature gradients and water column structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arbuszewski, J. A.; Oppo, D.; Huang, K.; Dubois, N.; Galy, V.; Mohtadi, M.; Herbert, T.; Rosenthal, Y.; Linsley, B. K.

2012-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent mode of tropical Pacific climate variability and has the potential to significantly impact the climate of the Indo-Pacific region and globally1. In the past, the mean state of the Pacific Ocean has, at times, resembled El Niño or La Niña conditions2. Although the dynamical relationships responsible for these changes have been studied through paleoproxy reconstructions and climate modeling, many questions remain. Recent paleoproxy based studies of tropical Pacific hydrology and surface temperature variability have hypothesized that observed climatological changes over the Holocene are directly linked to ENSO and/or mean state variability, complementing studies that dynamically relate centennial scale ENSO variability to mean state changes3-8. These studies have suggested that mid Holocene ENSO variability was low and the mean state was more "La Niña" like3-6. In the late Holocene, paleoproxy data has been interpreted as indicating an increase in ENSO variability with a more moderate mean ocean state3-6. However, alternative explanations could exist. Here, we test the hypothesis that observed climatological changes in the eastern tropical Pacific are related to mean state or ENSO variability during the Holocene. We focus our study on two sets of cores from the equatorial Pacific, with one located in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (BJ803-119 GGC, 117MC, sedimentation rates ~29 cm/kyr) and the other just off the Galapagos in the heart of the Eastern Cold Tongue (KNR195-5 43 GGC, 42MC, sedimentation rates ~20cm/kyr). The western site lies in the region predicted by models to show the greatest variations in temperature and water column structure in response to mean state changes, while the eastern site lies in the area most prone to changes due to ENSO variability7. Together, these sites allow us the best chance to robustly reconstruct ENSO and mean state related changes. We use a multiproxy approach and consider records from organic (sterol abundances) and inorganic proxies (Mg/Ca and δ18O of 3 planktonic foraminiferal species, % G. bulloides) to reconstruct zonal tropical Pacific (sub)surface temperature and stratification gradients over the Holocene. A benefit of using this approach is that it enables us to combine the strengths of each individual proxy to derive more robust records. We will compare our records with published paleoproxy and model studies in the Pacific and Indo-Pacific regions. Armed with this information, we aim to better understand mean state changes in the tropical Pacific over the Holocene. 1 Ropelewski, C. F. & Halpert, M. S. Monthly Weather Review 115, 1606-1626 (1987). 2 Collins, M. et al. Nature Geoscience 3, doi: 10.1038/NGEO1868 (2010). 3 Koutavas, A., Lynch-Steiglitz, J., Marchitto, T. & Sachs, J. Science 297, 226-230 (2002). 4 Moy, C. M., Seltzer, G. O., Rodbell, D. T. & Anderson, D. M. Nature 420, 162-165 (2002). 5 Conroy, J. L., Overpeck, J. T., Cole, J. E., Shanahan, T. M. & Steinitz-Kannan, M. Quaternary Science Reviews 27, 1166-1180 (2008). 6 Makou, M. C., Eglinton, T. I., Oppo, D. W. & Hughen, K. A. Geology 38, 43-46 (2010). 7 Karnauskas, K., Smerdon, J., Seager, R. & Gonzalez-Rouco, J. Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1178/JCLI-D-1111-00421.00421 (2012 (in press)). 8 Clement, A., Seager, R. & Cane, M. Paleoceanography 14, 441-456 (2000).

Moving From Static to Dynamic Models of the Onset of Mental Disorder: A Review.

PubMed

Nelson, Barnaby; McGorry, Patrick D; Wichers, Marieke; Wigman, Johanna T W; Hartmann, Jessica A

2017-05-01

In recent years, there has been increased focus on subthreshold stages of mental disorders, with attempts to model and predict which individuals will progress to full-threshold disorder. Given this research attention and the clinical significance of the issue, this article analyzes the assumptions of the theoretical models in the field. Psychiatric research into predicting the onset of mental disorder has shown an overreliance on one-off sampling of cross-sectional data (ie, a snapshot of clinical state and other risk markers) and may benefit from taking dynamic changes into account in predictive modeling. Cross-disciplinary approaches to complex system structures and changes, such as dynamical systems theory, network theory, instability mechanisms, chaos theory, and catastrophe theory, offer potent models that can be applied to the emergence (or decline) of psychopathology, including psychosis prediction, as well as to transdiagnostic emergence of symptoms. Psychiatric research may benefit from approaching psychopathology as a system rather than as a category, identifying dynamics of system change (eg, abrupt vs gradual psychosis onset), and determining the factors to which these systems are most sensitive (eg, interpersonal dynamics and neurochemical change) and the individual variability in system architecture and change. These goals can be advanced by testing hypotheses that emerge from cross-disciplinary models of complex systems. Future studies require repeated longitudinal assessment of relevant variables through either (or a combination of) micro-level (momentary and day-to-day) and macro-level (month and year) assessments. Ecological momentary assessment is a data collection technique appropriate for micro-level assessment. Relevant statistical approaches are joint modeling and time series analysis, including metric-based and model-based methods that draw on the mathematical principles of dynamical systems. This next generation of prediction studies may more accurately model the dynamic nature of psychopathology and system change as well as have treatment implications, such as introducing a means of identifying critical periods of risk for mental state deterioration.

Dynamics and Control of Three-Dimensional Perching Maneuver under Dynamic Stall Influence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feroskhan, Mir Alikhan Bin Mohammad

Perching is a type of aggressive maneuver performed by the class 'Aves' species to attain precision point landing with a generally short landing distance. Perching capability is desirable on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) due to its efficient deceleration process that potentially expands the functionality and flight envelope of the aircraft. This dissertation extends the previous works on perching, which is mostly limited to two-dimensional (2D) cases, to its state-of-the-art threedimensional (3D) variety. This dissertation presents the aerodynamic modeling and optimization framework adopted to generate unprecedented variants of the 3D perching maneuver that include the sideslip perching trajectory, which ameliorates the existing 2D perching concept by eliminating the undesirable undershoot and reliance on gravity. The sideslip perching technique methodically utilizes the lateral and longitudinal drag mechanisms through consecutive phases of yawing and pitching-up motion. Since perching maneuver involves high rates of change in the angles of attack and large turn rates, introduction of three internal variables thus becomes necessary for addressing the influence of dynamic stall delay on the UAV's transient post-stall behavior. These variables are then integrated into a static nonlinear aerodynamic model, developed using empirical and analytical methods, and into an optimization framework that generates a trajectory of sideslip perching maneuver, acquiring over 70% velocity reduction. An impact study of the dynamic stall influence on the optimal perching trajectories suggests that consideration of dynamic stall delay is essential due to the significant discrepancies in the corresponding control inputs required. A comparative study between 2D and 3D perching is also conducted to examine the different drag mechanisms employed by 2D and 3D perching respectively. 3D perching is presented as a more efficient deceleration technique with respect to spatial costs and initial altitude range. Contraction analysis is shown to be a useful technique in identifying the state variables that are required to be tracked for attaining stability of optimal perching trajectories. Based on the selected tracking variables, two sliding control strategies are proposed and comparatively examined to close the control loop and provide the required robustness and convergence to the optimal perching trajectory in the presence of perturbations and dynamic stall model inaccuracies. This dissertation concludes that the sliding controller with the adaptive gain feature is more effective and essential in providing better tracking performance through illustrations of the corresponding convergence area and at higher intensity of perturbations.

An analytical approach to top predator interference on the dynamics of a food chain model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senthamarai, R.; Vijayalakshmi, T.

2018-04-01

In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study of top predator interference on the dynamics of a food chain model. The mathematical model is formulated using the system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In this model, there are three state dimensionless variables, viz, size of prey population x, size of intermediate predator y and size of top predator population z. The analytical results are compared with the numerical simulation using MATLAB software and satisfactory results are noticed.

Adaptive Neural Output-Feedback Control for a Class of Nonlower Triangular Nonlinear Systems With Unmodeled Dynamics.

PubMed

Wang, Huanqing; Liu, Peter Xiaoping; Li, Shuai; Wang, Ding

2017-08-29

This paper presents the development of an adaptive neural controller for a class of nonlinear systems with unmodeled dynamics and immeasurable states. An observer is designed to estimate system states. The structure consistency of virtual control signals and the variable partition technique are combined to overcome the difficulties appearing in a nonlower triangular form. An adaptive neural output-feedback controller is developed based on the backstepping technique and the universal approximation property of the radial basis function (RBF) neural networks. By using the Lyapunov stability analysis, the semiglobally and uniformly ultimate boundedness of all signals within the closed-loop system is guaranteed. The simulation results show that the controlled system converges quickly, and all the signals are bounded. This paper is novel at least in the two aspects: 1) an output-feedback control strategy is developed for a class of nonlower triangular nonlinear systems with unmodeled dynamics and 2) the nonlinear disturbances and their bounds are the functions of all states, which is in a more general form than existing results.

Complexity and multifractality of neuronal noise in mouse and human hippocampal epileptiform dynamics.

PubMed

Serletis, Demitre; Bardakjian, Berj L; Valiante, Taufik A; Carlen, Peter L

2012-10-01

Fractal methods offer an invaluable means of investigating turbulent nonlinearity in non-stationary biomedical recordings from the brain. Here, we investigate properties of complexity (i.e. the correlation dimension, maximum Lyapunov exponent, 1/f(γ) noise and approximate entropy) and multifractality in background neuronal noise-like activity underlying epileptiform transitions recorded at the intracellular and local network scales from two in vitro models: the whole-intact mouse hippocampus and lesional human hippocampal slices. Our results show evidence for reduced dynamical complexity and multifractal signal features following transition to the ictal epileptiform state. These findings suggest that pathological breakdown in multifractal complexity coincides with loss of signal variability or heterogeneity, consistent with an unhealthy ictal state that is far from the equilibrium of turbulent yet healthy fractal dynamics in the brain. Thus, it appears that background noise-like activity successfully captures complex and multifractal signal features that may, at least in part, be used to classify and identify brain state transitions in the healthy and epileptic brain, offering potential promise for therapeutic neuromodulatory strategies for afflicted patients suffering from epilepsy and other related neurological disorders.

Comparison of RF spectrum prediction methods for dynamic spectrum access

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovarskiy, Jacob A.; Martone, Anthony F.; Gallagher, Kyle A.; Sherbondy, Kelly D.; Narayanan, Ram M.

2017-05-01

Dynamic spectrum access (DSA) refers to the adaptive utilization of today's busy electromagnetic spectrum. Cognitive radio/radar technologies require DSA to intelligently transmit and receive information in changing environments. Predicting radio frequency (RF) activity reduces sensing time and energy consumption for identifying usable spectrum. Typical spectrum prediction methods involve modeling spectral statistics with Hidden Markov Models (HMM) or various neural network structures. HMMs describe the time-varying state probabilities of Markov processes as a dynamic Bayesian network. Neural Networks model biological brain neuron connections to perform a wide range of complex and often non-linear computations. This work compares HMM, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) algorithms and their ability to perform RF channel state prediction. Monte Carlo simulations on both measured and simulated spectrum data evaluate the performance of these algorithms. Generalizing spectrum occupancy as an alternating renewal process allows Poisson random variables to generate simulated data while energy detection determines the occupancy state of measured RF spectrum data for testing. The results suggest that neural networks achieve better prediction accuracy and prove more adaptable to changing spectral statistics than HMMs given sufficient training data.

Possible Origin of Stagnation and Variability of Earth's Biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stollmeier, Frank; Geisel, Theo; Nagler, Jan

2014-06-01

The magnitude and variability of Earth's biodiversity have puzzled scientists ever since paleontologic fossil databases became available. We identify and study a model of interdependent species where both endogenous and exogenous impacts determine the nonstationary extinction dynamics. The framework provides an explanation for the qualitative difference of marine and continental biodiversity growth. In particular, the stagnation of marine biodiversity may result from a global transition from an imbalanced to a balanced state of the species dependency network. The predictions of our framework are in agreement with paleontologic databases.

State Space Model with hidden variables for reconstruction of gene regulatory networks.

PubMed

Wu, Xi; Li, Peng; Wang, Nan; Gong, Ping; Perkins, Edward J; Deng, Youping; Zhang, Chaoyang

2011-01-01

State Space Model (SSM) is a relatively new approach to inferring gene regulatory networks. It requires less computational time than Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN). There are two types of variables in the linear SSM, observed variables and hidden variables. SSM uses an iterative method, namely Expectation-Maximization, to infer regulatory relationships from microarray datasets. The hidden variables cannot be directly observed from experiments. How to determine the number of hidden variables has a significant impact on the accuracy of network inference. In this study, we used SSM to infer Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from synthetic time series datasets, investigated Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Principle Component Analysis (PCA) approaches to determining the number of hidden variables in SSM, and evaluated the performance of SSM in comparison with DBN. True GRNs and synthetic gene expression datasets were generated using GeneNetWeaver. Both DBN and linear SSM were used to infer GRNs from the synthetic datasets. The inferred networks were compared with the true networks. Our results show that inference precision varied with the number of hidden variables. For some regulatory networks, the inference precision of DBN was higher but SSM performed better in other cases. Although the overall performance of the two approaches is compatible, SSM is much faster and capable of inferring much larger networks than DBN. This study provides useful information in handling the hidden variables and improving the inference precision.

Stochastic inference with spiking neurons in the high-conductance state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrovici, Mihai A.; Bill, Johannes; Bytschok, Ilja; Schemmel, Johannes; Meier, Karlheinz

2016-10-01

The highly variable dynamics of neocortical circuits observed in vivo have been hypothesized to represent a signature of ongoing stochastic inference but stand in apparent contrast to the deterministic response of neurons measured in vitro. Based on a propagation of the membrane autocorrelation across spike bursts, we provide an analytical derivation of the neural activation function that holds for a large parameter space, including the high-conductance state. On this basis, we show how an ensemble of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with conductance-based synapses embedded in a spiking environment can attain the correct firing statistics for sampling from a well-defined target distribution. For recurrent networks, we examine convergence toward stationarity in computer simulations and demonstrate sample-based Bayesian inference in a mixed graphical model. This points to a new computational role of high-conductance states and establishes a rigorous link between deterministic neuron models and functional stochastic dynamics on the network level.

Markov state modeling of sliding friction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellegrini, F.; Landes, François P.; Laio, A.; Prestipino, S.; Tosatti, E.

2016-11-01

Markov state modeling (MSM) has recently emerged as one of the key techniques for the discovery of collective variables and the analysis of rare events in molecular simulations. In particular in biochemistry this approach is successfully exploited to find the metastable states of complex systems and their evolution in thermal equilibrium, including rare events, such as a protein undergoing folding. The physics of sliding friction and its atomistic simulations under external forces constitute a nonequilibrium field where relevant variables are in principle unknown and where a proper theory describing violent and rare events such as stick slip is still lacking. Here we show that MSM can be extended to the study of nonequilibrium phenomena and in particular friction. The approach is benchmarked on the Frenkel-Kontorova model, used here as a test system whose properties are well established. We demonstrate that the method allows the least prejudiced identification of a minimal basis of natural microscopic variables necessary for the description of the forced dynamics of sliding, through their probabilistic evolution. The steps necessary for the application to realistic frictional systems are highlighted.

Early prediction of extreme stratospheric polar vortex states based on causal precursors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretschmer, Marlene; Runge, Jakob; Coumou, Dim

2017-08-01

Variability in the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby winter weather. Early predictions of extreme SPV states are thus important to improve forecasts of winter weather including cold spells. However, dynamical models are usually restricted in lead time because they poorly capture low-frequency processes. Empirical models often suffer from overfitting problems as the relevant physical processes and time lags are often not well understood. Here we introduce a novel empirical prediction method by uniting a response-guided community detection scheme with a causal discovery algorithm. This way, we objectively identify causal precursors of the SPV at subseasonal lead times and find them to be in good agreement with known physical drivers. A linear regression prediction model based on the causal precursors can explain most SPV variability (r2 = 0.58), and our scheme correctly predicts 58% (46%) of extremely weak SPV states for lead times of 1-15 (16-30) days with false-alarm rates of only approximately 5%. Our method can be applied to any variable relevant for (sub)seasonal weather forecasts and could thus help improving long-lead predictions.

Deconstructing the core dynamics from a complex time-lagged regulatory biological circuit.

PubMed

Eriksson, O; Brinne, B; Zhou, Y; Björkegren, J; Tegnér, J

2009-03-01

Complex regulatory dynamics is ubiquitous in molecular networks composed of genes and proteins. Recent progress in computational biology and its application to molecular data generate a growing number of complex networks. Yet, it has been difficult to understand the governing principles of these networks beyond graphical analysis or extensive numerical simulations. Here the authors exploit several simplifying biological circumstances which thereby enable to directly detect the underlying dynamical regularities driving periodic oscillations in a dynamical nonlinear computational model of a protein-protein network. System analysis is performed using the cell cycle, a mathematically well-described complex regulatory circuit driven by external signals. By introducing an explicit time delay and using a 'tearing-and-zooming' approach the authors reduce the system to a piecewise linear system with two variables that capture the dynamics of this complex network. A key step in the analysis is the identification of functional subsystems by identifying the relations between state-variables within the model. These functional subsystems are referred to as dynamical modules operating as sensitive switches in the original complex model. By using reduced mathematical representations of the subsystems the authors derive explicit conditions on how the cell cycle dynamics depends on system parameters, and can, for the first time, analyse and prove global conditions for system stability. The approach which includes utilising biological simplifying conditions, identification of dynamical modules and mathematical reduction of the model complexity may be applicable to other well-characterised biological regulatory circuits. [Includes supplementary material].

Identification and stochastic control of helicopter dynamic modes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molusis, J. A.; Bar-Shalom, Y.

1983-01-01

A general treatment of parameter identification and stochastic control for use on helicopter dynamic systems is presented. Rotor dynamic models, including specific applications to rotor blade flapping and the helicopter ground resonance problem are emphasized. Dynamic systems which are governed by periodic coefficients as well as constant coefficient models are addressed. The dynamic systems are modeled by linear state variable equations which are used in the identification and stochastic control formulation. The pure identification problem as well as the stochastic control problem which includes combined identification and control for dynamic systems is addressed. The stochastic control problem includes the effect of parameter uncertainty on the solution and the concept of learning and how this is affected by the control's duel effect. The identification formulation requires algorithms suitable for on line use and thus recursive identification algorithms are considered. The applications presented use the recursive extended kalman filter for parameter identification which has excellent convergence for systems without process noise.

Implementation of a Mechanochemical Model for Dynamic Brittle Fracture in SIERRA

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-01

equations of state could be used in the future.† The energy associated with the deviatoric deformation is taken to be eiso(L ∗) = µ tr [ (L∗)2 ] (33...internal state variable can also be found in the book by Holzapfel.9 In the types of damage models considered by Kachanov, the energy density equation is...13b) The dimensions of K are: [K] = 1 [Time][ Stress ] . (14) The specific choice of equations 13 contain two physically questionable features,

Demonstration of coherent-state discrimination using a displacement-controlled photon-number-resolving detector.

PubMed

Wittmann, Christoffer; Andersen, Ulrik L; Takeoka, Masahiro; Sych, Denis; Leuchs, Gerd

2010-03-12

We experimentally demonstrate a new measurement scheme for the discrimination of two coherent states. The measurement scheme is based on a displacement operation followed by a photon-number-resolving detector, and we show that it outperforms the standard homodyne detector which we, in addition, prove to be optimal within all Gaussian operations including conditional dynamics. We also show that the non-Gaussian detector is superior to the homodyne detector in a continuous variable quantum key distribution scheme.

Flocking with connectivity preservation for disturbed nonlinear multi-agent systems by output feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ping; Zhang, Baoyong; Ma, Qian; Xu, Shengyuan; Chen, Weimin; Zhang, Zhengqiang

2018-05-01

This paper considers the problem of flocking with connectivity preservation for a class of disturbed nonlinear multi-agent systems. In order to deal with the nonlinearities in the dynamic of all agents, some auxiliary variables are introduced into the state observer for stability analysis. By proposing a bounded potential function and using adaptive theory, a novel output feedback consensus algorithm is developed to guarantee that the states of all agents achieve flocking with connectivity preservation.

The discriminatory value of cardiorespiratory interactions in distinguishing awake from anaesthetised states: a randomised observational study.

PubMed

Kenwright, D A; Bernjak, A; Draegni, T; Dzeroski, S; Entwistle, M; Horvat, M; Kvandal, P; Landsverk, S A; McClintock, P V E; Musizza, B; Petrovčič, J; Raeder, J; Sheppard, L W; Smith, A F; Stankovski, T; Stefanovska, A

2015-12-01

Depth of anaesthesia monitors usually analyse cerebral function with or without other physiological signals; non-invasive monitoring of the measured cardiorespiratory signals alone would offer a simple, practical alternative. We aimed to investigate whether such signals, analysed with novel, non-linear dynamic methods, would distinguish between the awake and anaesthetised states. We recorded ECG, respiration, skin temperature, pulse and skin conductivity before and during general anaesthesia in 27 subjects in good cardiovascular health, randomly allocated to receive propofol or sevoflurane. Mean values, variability and dynamic interactions were determined. Respiratory rate (p = 0.0002), skin conductivity (p = 0.03) and skin temperature (p = 0.00006) changed with sevoflurane, and skin temperature (p = 0.0005) with propofol. Pulse transit time increased by 17% with sevoflurane (p = 0.02) and 11% with propofol (p = 0.007). Sevoflurane reduced the wavelet energy of heart (p = 0.0004) and respiratory (p = 0.02) rate variability at all frequencies, whereas propofol decreased only the heart rate variability below 0.021 Hz (p < 0.05). The phase coherence was reduced by both agents at frequencies below 0.145 Hz (p < 0.05), whereas the cardiorespiratory synchronisation time was increased (p < 0.05). A classification analysis based on an optimal set of discriminatory parameters distinguished with 95% success between the awake and anaesthetised states. We suggest that these results can contribute to the design of new monitors of anaesthetic depth based on cardiovascular signals alone. © 2015 The Authors. Anaesthesia published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

Synchronization states and multistability in a ring of periodic oscillators: Experimentally variable coupling delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Caitlin R. S.; Sorrentino, Francesco; Murphy, Thomas E.; Roy, Rajarshi

2013-12-01

We experimentally study the complex dynamics of a unidirectionally coupled ring of four identical optoelectronic oscillators. The coupling between these systems is time-delayed in the experiment and can be varied over a wide range of delays. We observe that as the coupling delay is varied, the system may show different synchronization states, including complete isochronal synchrony, cluster synchrony, and two splay-phase states. We analyze the stability of these solutions through a master stability function approach, which we show can be effectively applied to all the different states observed in the experiment. Our analysis supports the experimentally observed multistability in the system.

Dynamical minimalism: why less is more in psychology.

PubMed

Nowak, Andrzej

2004-01-01

The principle of parsimony, embraced in all areas of science, states that simple explanations are preferable to complex explanations in theory construction. Parsimony, however, can necessitate a trade-off with depth and richness in understanding. The approach of dynamical minimalism avoids this trade-off. The goal of this approach is to identify the simplest mechanisms and fewest variables capable of producing the phenomenon in question. A dynamical model in which change is produced by simple rules repetitively interacting with each other can exhibit unexpected and complex properties. It is thus possible to explain complex psychological and social phenomena with very simple models if these models are dynamic. In dynamical minimalist theories, then, the principle of parsimony can be followed without sacrificing depth in understanding. Computer simulations have proven especially useful for investigating the emergent properties of simple models.

Solar radiation variability over La Réunion island and associated larger-scale dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mialhe, Pauline; Morel, Béatrice; Pohl, Benjamin; Bessafi, Miloud; Chabriat, Jean-Pierre

2017-04-01

This study aims to examine the solar radiation variability over La Réunion island and its relationship with large-scale circulation. The Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) produces a Shortwave Incoming Solar radiation (SIS) data record called Solar surfAce RAdiation Heliosat - East (SARAH-E). A comparison to in situ observations from Météo-France measurements networks quantifies the skill of SARAH-E grids which we use as dataset. First step of the work, irradiance mean cycles are calculated to describe the diurnal-seasonal SIS behaviour over La Réunion island. By analogy with the climate anomalies, instantaneous deviations are computed after removal of the mean states. Finally, we associate these anomalies with larger-scale atmospheric dynamics into the South West Indian Ocean by applying multivariate clustering analyses (Hierarchical Ascending Classification, k-means).

Dynamic optimization and its relation to classical and quantum constrained systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras, Mauricio; Pellicer, Rely; Villena, Marcelo

2017-08-01

We study the structure of a simple dynamic optimization problem consisting of one state and one control variable, from a physicist's point of view. By using an analogy to a physical model, we study this system in the classical and quantum frameworks. Classically, the dynamic optimization problem is equivalent to a classical mechanics constrained system, so we must use the Dirac method to analyze it in a correct way. We find that there are two second-class constraints in the model: one fix the momenta associated with the control variables, and the other is a reminder of the optimal control law. The dynamic evolution of this constrained system is given by the Dirac's bracket of the canonical variables with the Hamiltonian. This dynamic results to be identical to the unconstrained one given by the Pontryagin equations, which are the correct classical equations of motion for our physical optimization problem. In the same Pontryagin scheme, by imposing a closed-loop λ-strategy, the optimality condition for the action gives a consistency relation, which is associated to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation of the dynamic programming method. A similar result is achieved by quantizing the classical model. By setting the wave function Ψ(x , t) =e iS(x , t) in the quantum Schrödinger equation, a non-linear partial equation is obtained for the S function. For the right-hand side quantization, this is the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, when S(x , t) is identified with the optimal value function. Thus, the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation in Bellman's maximum principle, can be interpreted as the quantum approach of the optimization problem.

Factors influencing crime rates: an econometric analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bothos, John M. A.; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

2016-05-01

The scope of the present study is to research the dynamics that determine the commission of crimes in the US society. Our study is part of a model we are developing to understand urban crime dynamics and to enhance citizens' "perception of security" in large urban environments. The main targets of our research are to highlight dependence of crime rates on certain social and economic factors and basic elements of state anticrime policies. In conducting our research, we use as guides previous relevant studies on crime dependence, that have been performed with similar quantitative analyses in mind, regarding the dependence of crime on certain social and economic factors using statistics and econometric modelling. Our first approach consists of conceptual state space dynamic cross-sectional econometric models that incorporate a feedback loop that describes crime as a feedback process. In order to define dynamically the model variables, we use statistical analysis on crime records and on records about social and economic conditions and policing characteristics (like police force and policing results - crime arrests), to determine their influence as independent variables on crime, as the dependent variable of our model. The econometric models we apply in this first approach are an exponential log linear model and a logit model. In a second approach, we try to study the evolvement of violent crime through time in the US, independently as an autonomous social phenomenon, using autoregressive and moving average time-series econometric models. Our findings show that there are certain social and economic characteristics that affect the formation of crime rates in the US, either positively or negatively. Furthermore, the results of our time-series econometric modelling show that violent crime, viewed solely and independently as a social phenomenon, correlates with previous years crime rates and depends on the social and economic environment's conditions during previous years.

Convergence analysis of sliding mode trajectories in multi-objective neural networks learning.

PubMed

Costa, Marcelo Azevedo; Braga, Antonio Padua; de Menezes, Benjamin Rodrigues

2012-09-01

The Pareto-optimality concept is used in this paper in order to represent a constrained set of solutions that are able to trade-off the two main objective functions involved in neural networks supervised learning: data-set error and network complexity. The neural network is described as a dynamic system having error and complexity as its state variables and learning is presented as a process of controlling a learning trajectory in the resulting state space. In order to control the trajectories, sliding mode dynamics is imposed to the network. It is shown that arbitrary learning trajectories can be achieved by maintaining the sliding mode gains within their convergence intervals. Formal proofs of convergence conditions are therefore presented. The concept of trajectory learning presented in this paper goes further beyond the selection of a final state in the Pareto set, since it can be reached through different trajectories and states in the trajectory can be assessed individually against an additional objective function. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying SDDP to very large hydro-economic models with a simplified formulation for irrigation: the case of the Tigris-Euphrates river basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rougé, Charles; Tilmant, Amaury

2015-04-01

Stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) is an optimization algorithm well-suited for the study of large-scale water resources systems comprising reservoirs - and hydropower plants - as well as irrigation nodes. It generates intertemporal allocation policies that balance the present and future marginal value of water while taking into account hydrological uncertainty. It is scalable, in the sense that the time and memory required for computation do not grow exponentially with the number of state variables. Still, this scalability relies on the sampling of a few relevant trajectories for the system, and the approximation of the future value of water through cuts -i.e., hyperplanes - at points along these trajectories. Therefore, the accuracy of this approximation arguably decreases as the number of state variables increases, and it is important not to have more than necessary. In previous formulations, SDDP had three types of state variables, namely storage in each reservoir, inflow at each node and water accumulated during the irrigation season for each crop at each node. We present a simplified formulation for irrigation that does not require using the latter type of state variable. It also requires only two decision variables for each irrigation site, where the previous formulation had four per crop - and there may be several crops at the same site. This reduction in decision variables effectively reduces computation time, since SDDP decomposes the stochastic, multiperiodic, non-linear maximization problem into a series of linear ones. The proposed formulation, while computationally simpler, is mathematically equivalent to the previous one, and therefore the model gives the same results. A corollary of this formulation is that marginal utility of water at an irrigation site is effectively related to consumption at that site, through a piecewise linear function representing the net benefits from irrigation. Last but not least, the proposed formulation can be extended to any type of consumptive use of water beyond irrigation, e.g., municipal, industrial, etc This slightly different version of SDDP is applied to a large portion of the Tigris-Euphrates river basin. It comprises 24 state variables representing storage in reservoirs, 28 hydrologic state variables, and 51 demand nodes. It is the largest yet to simultaneously consider hydropower and irrigation within the same river system, and the proposed formulation almost halves the number of state variables to be considered.

Systemic Case Formulation, Individualized Process Monitoring, and State Dynamics in a Case of Dissociative Identity Disorder.

PubMed

Schiepek, Günter K; Stöger-Schmidinger, Barbara; Aichhorn, Wolfgang; Schöller, Helmut; Aas, Benjamin

2016-01-01

Objective: The aim of this case report is to demonstrate the feasibility of a systemic procedure (synergetic process management) including modeling of the idiographic psychological system and continuous high-frequency monitoring of change dynamics in a case of dissociative identity disorder. The psychotherapy was realized in a day treatment center with a female client diagnosed with borderline personality disorder (BPD) and dissociative identity disorder. Methods: A three hour long co-creative session at the beginning of the treatment period allowed for modeling the systemic network of the client's dynamics of cognitions, emotions, and behavior. The components (variables) of this idiographic system model (ISM) were used to create items for an individualized process questionnaire for the client. The questionnaire was administered daily through an internet-based monitoring tool (Synergetic Navigation System, SNS), to capture the client's individual change process continuously throughout the therapy and after-care period. The resulting time series were reflected by therapist and client in therapeutic feedback sessions. Results: For the client it was important to see how the personality states dominating her daily life were represented by her idiographic system model and how the transitions between each state could be explained and understood by the activating and inhibiting relations between the cognitive-emotional components of that system. Continuous monitoring of her cognitions, emotions, and behavior via SNS allowed for identification of important triggers, dynamic patterns, and psychological mechanisms behind seemingly erratic state fluctuations. These insights enabled a change in management of the dynamics and an intensified trauma-focused therapy. Conclusion: By making use of the systemic case formulation technique and subsequent daily online monitoring, client and therapist continuously refer to detailed visualizations of the mental and behavioral network and its dynamics (e.g., order transitions). Effects on self-related information processing, on identity development, and toward a more pronounced autonomy in life (instead of feeling helpless against the chaoticity of state dynamics) were evident in the presented case and documented by the monitoring system.

Decoupling in linear time-varying multivariable systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sankaran, V.

1973-01-01

The necessary and sufficient conditions for the decoupling of an m-input, m-output, linear time varying dynamical system by state variable feedback is described. The class of feedback matrices which decouple the system are illustrated. Systems which do not satisfy these results are described and systems with disturbances are considered. Some examples are illustrated to clarify the results.

Employee Engagement and Leadership: Exploring the Convergence of Two Frameworks and Implications for Leadership Development in HRD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shuck, Brad; Herd, Ann Mogan

2012-01-01

As the use of workplace knowledge economies increases and emerging motivational-state variables such as employee engagement become more widely used, current frameworks of leadership are undergoing changes in perspective and practice. Moreover, while shifts in workplace dynamics have occurred in practice for some time, scholars are now calling for…

State-dependent cognition and its relevance to cultural evolution.

PubMed

Nettle, Daniel

2018-02-05

Individuals cope with their worlds by using information. In humans in particular, an important potential source of information is cultural tradition. Evolutionary models have examined when it is advantageous to use cultural information, and psychological studies have examined the cognitive biases and priorities that may transform cultural traditions over time. However, these studies have not generally incorporated the idea that individuals vary in state. I argue that variation in state is likely to influence the relative payoffs of using cultural information versus gathering personal information; and also that people in different states will have different cognitive biases and priorities, leading them to transform cultural information in different ways. I explore hunger as one example of state variable likely to have consequences for cultural evolution. Variation in state has the potential to explain why cultural traditions and dynamics are so variable between individuals and populations. It offers evolutionarily-grounded links between the ecology in which individuals live, individual-level cognitive processes, and patterns of culture. However, incorporating heterogeneity of state also makes the modelling of cultural evolution more complex, particularly if the distribution of states is itself influenced by the distribution of cultural beliefs and practices. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Theoretical fluid dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shivamoggi, B. K.

This book is concerned with a discussion of the dynamical behavior of a fluid, and is addressed primarily to graduate students and researchers in theoretical physics and applied mathematics. A review of basic concepts and equations of fluid dynamics is presented, taking into account a fluid model of systems, the objective of fluid dynamics, the fluid state, description of the flow field, volume forces and surface forces, relative motion near a point, stress-strain relation, equations of fluid flows, surface tension, and a program for analysis of the governing equations. The dynamics of incompressible fluid flows is considered along with the dynamics of compressible fluid flows, the dynamics of viscous fluid flows, hydrodynamic stability, and dynamics of turbulence. Attention is given to the complex-variable method, three-dimensional irrotational flows, vortex flows, rotating flows, water waves, applications to aerodynamics, shock waves, potential flows, the hodograph method, flows at low and high Reynolds numbers, the Jeffrey-Hamel flow, and the capillary instability of a liquid jet.

Ontology of Earth's nonlinear dynamic complex systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babaie, Hassan; Davarpanah, Armita

2017-04-01

As a complex system, Earth and its major integrated and dynamically interacting subsystems (e.g., hydrosphere, atmosphere) display nonlinear behavior in response to internal and external influences. The Earth Nonlinear Dynamic Complex Systems (ENDCS) ontology formally represents the semantics of the knowledge about the nonlinear system element (agent) behavior, function, and structure, inter-agent and agent-environment feedback loops, and the emergent collective properties of the whole complex system as the result of interaction of the agents with other agents and their environment. It also models nonlinear concepts such as aperiodic, random chaotic behavior, sensitivity to initial conditions, bifurcation of dynamic processes, levels of organization, self-organization, aggregated and isolated functionality, and emergence of collective complex behavior at the system level. By incorporating several existing ontologies, the ENDCS ontology represents the dynamic system variables and the rules of transformation of their state, emergent state, and other features of complex systems such as the trajectories in state (phase) space (attractor and strange attractor), basins of attractions, basin divide (separatrix), fractal dimension, and system's interface to its environment. The ontology also defines different object properties that change the system behavior, function, and structure and trigger instability. ENDCS will help to integrate the data and knowledge related to the five complex subsystems of Earth by annotating common data types, unifying the semantics of shared terminology, and facilitating interoperability among different fields of Earth science.

Heart Rate Dynamics after Combined Strength and Endurance Training in Middle-Aged Women: Heterogeneity of Responses

PubMed Central

Goldberger, Ary L.; Tulppo, Mikko P.; Laaksonen, David E.; Nyman, Kai; Keskitalo, Marko; Häkkinen, Arja; Häkkinen, Keijo

2013-01-01

The loss of complexity in physiological systems may be a dynamical biomarker of aging and disease. In this study the effects of combined strength and endurance training compared with those of endurance training or strength training alone on heart rate (HR) complexity and traditional HR variability indices were examined in middle-aged women. 90 previously untrained female volunteers between the age of 40 and 65 years completed a 21 week progressive training period of either strength training, endurance training or their combination, or served as controls. Continuous HR time series were obtained during supine rest and submaximal steady state exercise. The complexity of HR dynamics was assessed using multiscale entropy analysis. In addition, standard time and frequency domain measures were also computed. Endurance training led to increases in HR complexity and selected time and frequency domain measures of HR variability (P<0.01) when measured during exercise. Combined strength and endurance training or strength training alone did not produce significant changes in HR dynamics. Inter-subject heterogeneity of responses was particularly noticeable in the combined training group. At supine rest, no training-induced changes in HR parameters were observed in any of the groups. The present findings emphasize the potential utility of endurance training in increasing the complex variability of HR in middle-aged women. Further studies are needed to explore the combined endurance and strength training adaptations and possible gender and age related factors, as well as other mechanisms, that may mediate the effects of different training regimens on HR dynamics. PMID:24013586

Dynamic brain connectivity is a better predictor of PTSD than static connectivity.

PubMed

Jin, Changfeng; Jia, Hao; Lanka, Pradyumna; Rangaprakash, D; Li, Lingjiang; Liu, Tianming; Hu, Xiaoping; Deshpande, Gopikrishna

2017-09-01

Using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging, we test the hypothesis that subjects with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are characterized by reduced temporal variability of brain connectivity compared to matched healthy controls. Specifically, we test whether PTSD is characterized by elevated static connectivity, coupled with decreased temporal variability of those connections, with the latter providing greater sensitivity toward the pathology than the former. Static functional connectivity (FC; nondirectional zero-lag correlation) and static effective connectivity (EC; directional time-lagged relationships) were obtained over the entire brain using conventional models. Dynamic FC and dynamic EC were estimated by letting the conventional models to vary as a function of time. Statistical separation and discriminability of these metrics between the groups and their ability to accurately predict the diagnostic label of a novel subject were ascertained using separate support vector machine classifiers. Our findings support our hypothesis that PTSD subjects have stronger static connectivity, but reduced temporal variability of connectivity. Further, machine learning classification accuracy obtained with dynamic FC and dynamic EC was significantly higher than that obtained with static FC and static EC, respectively. Furthermore, results also indicate that the ease with which brain regions engage or disengage with other regions may be more sensitive to underlying pathology than the strength with which they are engaged. Future studies must examine whether this is true only in the case of PTSD or is a general organizing principle in the human brain. Hum Brain Mapp 38:4479-4496, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-05-01

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

Tribal and Locality Dynamics in Afghanistan: A View from the National Military Academy of Afghanistan

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

CD VVV ∪= with DV countable and nCV ℜ∈ ; XInit ⊆ is a set of initial states; CXVXf →×: is a vector field, assumed to be 4 globally...DV countable and nCV ℜ∈ ; XInit ⊆ is a set of initial states; CXVXf →×: is a vector field, assumed to be globally Lipschitz in CX and...8217 ; V is a finite collection of input variables. We assume ( )CD VVV ∪= with DV countable and nCV ℜ∈ ; XInit ⊆ is a set of initial states

Sliding mode control for Mars entry based on extended state observer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Kunfeng; Xia, Yuanqing; Shen, Ganghui; Yu, Chunmei; Zhou, Liuyu; Zhang, Lijun

2017-11-01

This paper addresses high-precision Mars entry guidance and control approach via sliding mode control (SMC) and Extended State Observer (ESO). First, differential flatness (DF) approach is applied to the dynamic equations of the entry vehicle to represent the state variables more conveniently. Then, the presented SMC law can guarantee the property of finite-time convergence of tracking error, which requires no information on high uncertainties that are estimated by ESO, and the rigorous proof of tracking error convergence is given. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the suggested approach.

Dynamic optimization of open-loop input signals for ramp-up current profiles in tokamak plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Zhigang; Xu, Chao; Lin, Qun; Loxton, Ryan; Teo, Kok Lay

2016-03-01

Establishing a good current spatial profile in tokamak fusion reactors is crucial to effective steady-state operation. The evolution of the current spatial profile is related to the evolution of the poloidal magnetic flux, which can be modeled in the normalized cylindrical coordinates using a parabolic partial differential equation (PDE) called the magnetic diffusion equation. In this paper, we consider the dynamic optimization problem of attaining the best possible current spatial profile during the ramp-up phase of the tokamak. We first use the Galerkin method to obtain a finite-dimensional ordinary differential equation (ODE) model based on the original magnetic diffusion PDE. Then, we combine the control parameterization method with a novel time-scaling transformation to obtain an approximate optimal parameter selection problem, which can be solved using gradient-based optimization techniques such as sequential quadratic programming (SQP). This control parameterization approach involves approximating the tokamak input signals by piecewise-linear functions whose slopes and break-points are decision variables to be optimized. We show that the gradient of the objective function with respect to the decision variables can be computed by solving an auxiliary dynamic system governing the state sensitivity matrix. Finally, we conclude the paper with simulation results for an example problem based on experimental data from the DIII-D tokamak in San Diego, California.

Potential of new machine learning methods for understanding long-term interannual variability of carbon and energy fluxes and states from site to global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichstein, M.; Jung, M.; Bodesheim, P.; Mahecha, M. D.; Gans, F.; Rodner, E.; Camps-Valls, G.; Papale, D.; Tramontana, G.; Denzler, J.; Baldocchi, D. D.

2016-12-01

Machine learning tools have been very successful in describing and predicting instantaneous climatic influences on the spatial and seasonal variability of biosphere-atmosphere exchange, while interannual variability is harder to model (e.g. Jung et al. 2011, JGR Biogeosciences). Here we hypothesize that innterannual variability is harder to describe for two reasons. 1) The signal-to-noise ratio in both, predictors (e.g. remote sensing) and target variables (e.g. net ecosystem exchange) is relatively weak, 2) The employed machine learning methods do not sufficiently account for dynamic lag and carry-over effects. In this presentation we can largely confirm both hypotheses: 1) We show that based on FLUXNET data and an ensemble of machine learning methods we can arrive at estimates of global NEE that correlate well with the residual land sink overall and CO2 flux inversions over latitudinal bands. Furthermore these results highlight the importance of variations in water availability for variations in carbon fluxes locally, while globally, as a scale-emergent property, tropical temperatures correlate well with the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, because of spatial anticorrelation and compensation of water availability. 2) We evidence with synthetic and real data that machine learning methods with embed dynamic memory effects of the system such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are able to better capture lag and carry-over effect which are caused by dynamic carbon pools in vegetation and soils. For these methods, long-term replicate observations are an essential asset.

Stability analysis of BWR nuclear-coupled thermal-hyraulics using a simple model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karve, A.A.; Rizwan-uddin; Dorning, J.J.

1995-09-01

A simple mathematical model is developed to describe the dynamics of the nuclear-coupled thermal-hydraulics in a boiling water reactor (BWR) core. The model, which incorporates the essential features of neutron kinetics, and single-phase and two-phase thermal-hydraulics, leads to simple dynamical system comprised of a set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The stability boundary is determined and plotted in the inlet-subcooling-number (enthalpy)/external-reactivity operating parameter plane. The eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix of the dynamical system also are calculated at various steady-states (fixed points); the results are consistent with those of the direct stability analysis and indicate that a Hopf bifurcationmore » occurs as the stability boundary in the operating parameter plane is crossed. Numerical simulations of the time-dependent, nonlinear ODEs are carried out for selected points in the operating parameter plane to obtain the actual damped and growing oscillations in the neutron number density, the channel inlet flow velocity, and the other phase variables. These indicate that the Hopf bifurcation is subcritical, hence, density wave oscillations with growing amplitude could result from a finite perturbation of the system even where the steady-state is stable. The power-flow map, frequently used by reactor operators during start-up and shut-down operation of a BWR, is mapped to the inlet-subcooling-number/neutron-density (operating-parameter/phase-variable) plane, and then related to the stability boundaries for different fixed inlet velocities corresponding to selected points on the flow-control line. The stability boundaries for different fixed inlet subcooling numbers corresponding to those selected points, are plotted in the neutron-density/inlet-velocity phase variable plane and then the points on the flow-control line are related to their respective stability boundaries in this plane.« less

The dynamics of long-term transgene expression in engrafted neural stem cells.

PubMed

Lee, Jean-Pyo; Tsai, David J; In Park, Kook; Harvey, Alan R; Snyder, Evan Y

2009-07-01

To assess the dynamics and confounding variables that influence transgene expression in neural stem cells (NSCs), we generated distinct NSC clones from the same pool of cells, carrying the same reporter gene transcribed from the same promoter, transduced by the same retroviral vector, and transplanted similarly at the same differentiation state, at the same time and location, into the brains of newborn mouse littermates, and monitored in parallel for over a year in vivo (without immunosuppression). Therefore, the sole variables were transgene chromosomal insertion site and copy number. We then adapted and optimized a technique that tests, at the single cell level, persistence of stem cell-mediated transgene expression in vivo based on correlating the presence of the transgene in a given NSC's nucleus (by fluorescence in situ hybridization [FISH]) with the frequency of that transgene's product within the same cell (by combined immunohistochemistry [IHC]). Under the above-stated conditions, insertion site is likely the most contributory variable dictating transgene downregulation in an NSC after 3 months in vivo. We also observed that this obstacle could be effectively and safely counteracted by simple serial infections (as few as three) inserting redundant copies of the transgene into the prospective donor NSC. (The preservation of normal growth control mechanisms and an absence of tumorigenic potential can be readily screened and ensured ex vivo prior to transplantation.) The combined FISH/IHC strategy employed here for monitoring the dynamics of transgene expression at the single cell level in vivo may be used for other types of therapeutic and housekeeping genes in endogenous and exogenous stem cells of many organs and lineages. Copyright 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

What is the Effect of Interannual Hydroclimatic Variability on Water Supply Reservoir Operations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Turner, S. W. D.

2015-12-01

Rather than deriving from a single distribution and uniform persistence structure, hydroclimatic data exhibit significant trends and shifts in their mean, variance, and lagged correlation through time. Consequentially, observed and reconstructed streamflow records are often characterized by features of interannual variability, including long-term persistence and prolonged droughts. This study examines the effect of these features on the operating performance of water supply reservoirs. We develop a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model that can incorporate a regime-shifting climate variable. We then compare the performance of operating policies—designed with and without climate variable—to quantify the contribution of interannual variability to standard policy sub-optimality. The approach uses a discrete-time Markov chain to partition the reservoir inflow time series into small number of 'hidden' climate states. Each state defines a distinct set of inflow transition probability matrices, which are used by the SDP model to condition the release decisions on the reservoir storage, current-period inflow and hidden climate state. The experimental analysis is carried out on 99 hypothetical water supply reservoirs fed from pristine catchments in Australia—all impacted by the Millennium drought. Results show that interannual hydroclimatic variability is a major cause of sub-optimal hedging decisions. The practical import is that conventional optimization methods may misguide operators, particularly in regions susceptible to multi-year droughts.

Transient dynamics in trial-offer markets with social influence: Trade-offs between appeal and quality

PubMed Central

Altszyler, Edgar; Berbeglia, Franco; Van Hentenryck, Pascal

2017-01-01

We study a trial-offer market where consumers may purchase one of two competing products. Consumer preferences are affected by the products quality, their appeal, and their popularity. While the asymptotic convergence or stationary states of these, and related dynamical systems, has been vastly studied, the literature regarding the transitory dynamics remains surprisingly sparse. To fill this gap, we derive a system of Ordinary Differential Equations, which is solved exactly to gain insight into the roles played by product qualities and appeals in the market behavior. We observe a logarithmic tradeoff between quality and appeal for medium and long-term marketing strategies: The expected market shares remain constant if a decrease in quality is followed by an exponential increase in the product appeal. However, for short time horizons, the trade-off is linear. Finally, we study the variability of the dynamics through Monte Carlo simulations and discover that low appeals may result in high levels of variability. The model results suggest effective marketing strategies for short and long time horizons and emphasize the significance of advertising early in the market life to increase sales and predictability. PMID:28746334

Transient dynamics in trial-offer markets with social influence: Trade-offs between appeal and quality.

PubMed

Altszyler, Edgar; Berbeglia, Franco; Berbeglia, Gerardo; Van Hentenryck, Pascal

2017-01-01

We study a trial-offer market where consumers may purchase one of two competing products. Consumer preferences are affected by the products quality, their appeal, and their popularity. While the asymptotic convergence or stationary states of these, and related dynamical systems, has been vastly studied, the literature regarding the transitory dynamics remains surprisingly sparse. To fill this gap, we derive a system of Ordinary Differential Equations, which is solved exactly to gain insight into the roles played by product qualities and appeals in the market behavior. We observe a logarithmic tradeoff between quality and appeal for medium and long-term marketing strategies: The expected market shares remain constant if a decrease in quality is followed by an exponential increase in the product appeal. However, for short time horizons, the trade-off is linear. Finally, we study the variability of the dynamics through Monte Carlo simulations and discover that low appeals may result in high levels of variability. The model results suggest effective marketing strategies for short and long time horizons and emphasize the significance of advertising early in the market life to increase sales and predictability.

Self-Organized Information Processing in Neuronal Networks: Replacing Layers in Deep Networks by Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirst, Christoph

It is astonishing how the sub-parts of a brain co-act to produce coherent behavior. What are mechanism that coordinate information processing and communication and how can those be changed flexibly in order to cope with variable contexts? Here we show that when information is encoded in the deviations around a collective dynamical reference state of a recurrent network the propagation of these fluctuations is strongly dependent on precisely this underlying reference. Information here 'surfs' on top of the collective dynamics and switching between states enables fast and flexible rerouting of information. This in turn affects local processing and consequently changes in the global reference dynamics that re-regulate the distribution of information. This provides a generic mechanism for self-organized information processing as we demonstrate with an oscillatory Hopfield network that performs contextual pattern recognition. Deep neural networks have proven to be very successful recently. Here we show that generating information channels via collective reference dynamics can effectively compress a deep multi-layer architecture into a single layer making this mechanism a promising candidate for the organization of information processing in biological neuronal networks.

System Dynamics to Climate-Driven Water Budget Analysis in the Eastern Snake Plains Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, J.; Contor, B.; Wylie, A.; Johnson, G.; Allen, R. G.

2010-12-01

Climate variability, weather extremes and climate change continue to threaten the sustainability of water resources in the western United States. Given current climate change projections, increasing temperature is likely to modify the timing, form, and intensity of precipitation events, which consequently affect regional and local hydrologic cycles. As a result, drought, water shortage, and subsequent water conflicts may become an increasing threat in monotone hydrologic systems in arid lands, such as the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer (ESPA). The ESPA, in particular, is a critical asset in the state of Idaho. It is known as the economic lifeblood for more than half of Idaho’s population so that water resources availability and aquifer management due to climate change is of great interest, especially over the next few decades. In this study, we apply system dynamics as a methodology with which to address dynamically complex problems in ESPA’s water resources management. Aquifer recharge and discharge dynamics are coded in STELLA modeling system as input and output, respectively to identify long-term behavior of aquifer responses to climate-driven hydrological changes.

Statistical physics and physiology: monofractal and multifractal approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanley, H. E.; Amaral, L. A.; Goldberger, A. L.; Havlin, S.; Peng, C. K.

1999-01-01

Even under healthy, basal conditions, physiologic systems show erratic fluctuations resembling those found in dynamical systems driven away from a single equilibrium state. Do such "nonequilibrium" fluctuations simply reflect the fact that physiologic systems are being constantly perturbed by external and intrinsic noise? Or, do these fluctuations actually, contain useful, "hidden" information about the underlying nonequilibrium control mechanisms? We report some recent attempts to understand the dynamics of complex physiologic fluctuations by adapting and extending concepts and methods developed very recently in statistical physics. Specifically, we focus on interbeat interval variability as an important quantity to help elucidate possibly non-homeostatic physiologic variability because (i) the heart rate is under direct neuroautonomic control, (ii) interbeat interval variability is readily measured by noninvasive means, and (iii) analysis of these heart rate dynamics may provide important practical diagnostic and prognostic information not obtainable with current approaches. The analytic tools we discuss may be used on a wider range of physiologic signals. We first review recent progress using two analysis methods--detrended fluctuation analysis and wavelets--sufficient for quantifying monofractual structures. We then describe recent work that quantifies multifractal features of interbeat interval series, and the discovery that the multifractal structure of healthy subjects is different than that of diseased subjects.

Koopman Invariant Subspaces and Finite Linear Representations of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems for Control.

PubMed

Brunton, Steven L; Brunton, Bingni W; Proctor, Joshua L; Kutz, J Nathan

2016-01-01

In this wIn this work, we explore finite-dimensional linear representations of nonlinear dynamical systems by restricting the Koopman operator to an invariant subspace spanned by specially chosen observable functions. The Koopman operator is an infinite-dimensional linear operator that evolves functions of the state of a dynamical system. Dominant terms in the Koopman expansion are typically computed using dynamic mode decomposition (DMD). DMD uses linear measurements of the state variables, and it has recently been shown that this may be too restrictive for nonlinear systems. Choosing the right nonlinear observable functions to form an invariant subspace where it is possible to obtain linear reduced-order models, especially those that are useful for control, is an open challenge. Here, we investigate the choice of observable functions for Koopman analysis that enable the use of optimal linear control techniques on nonlinear problems. First, to include a cost on the state of the system, as in linear quadratic regulator (LQR) control, it is helpful to include these states in the observable subspace, as in DMD. However, we find that this is only possible when there is a single isolated fixed point, as systems with multiple fixed points or more complicated attractors are not globally topologically conjugate to a finite-dimensional linear system, and cannot be represented by a finite-dimensional linear Koopman subspace that includes the state. We then present a data-driven strategy to identify relevant observable functions for Koopman analysis by leveraging a new algorithm to determine relevant terms in a dynamical system by ℓ1-regularized regression of the data in a nonlinear function space; we also show how this algorithm is related to DMD. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of nonlinear observable subspaces in the design of Koopman operator optimal control laws for fully nonlinear systems using techniques from linear optimal control.ork, we explore finite-dimensional linear representations of nonlinear dynamical systems by restricting the Koopman operator to an invariant subspace spanned by specially chosen observable functions. The Koopman operator is an infinite-dimensional linear operator that evolves functions of the state of a dynamical system. Dominant terms in the Koopman expansion are typically computed using dynamic mode decomposition (DMD). DMD uses linear measurements of the state variables, and it has recently been shown that this may be too restrictive for nonlinear systems. Choosing the right nonlinear observable functions to form an invariant subspace where it is possible to obtain linear reduced-order models, especially those that are useful for control, is an open challenge. Here, we investigate the choice of observable functions for Koopman analysis that enable the use of optimal linear control techniques on nonlinear problems. First, to include a cost on the state of the system, as in linear quadratic regulator (LQR) control, it is helpful to include these states in the observable subspace, as in DMD. However, we find that this is only possible when there is a single isolated fixed point, as systems with multiple fixed points or more complicated attractors are not globally topologically conjugate to a finite-dimensional linear system, and cannot be represented by a finite-dimensional linear Koopman subspace that includes the state. We then present a data-driven strategy to identify relevant observable functions for Koopman analysis by leveraging a new algorithm to determine relevant terms in a dynamical system by ℓ1-regularized regression of the data in a nonlinear function space; we also show how this algorithm is related to DMD. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of nonlinear observable subspaces in the design of Koopman operator optimal control laws for fully nonlinear systems using techniques from linear optimal control.

Path integrals and large deviations in stochastic hybrid systems.

PubMed

Bressloff, Paul C; Newby, Jay M

2014-04-01

We construct a path-integral representation of solutions to a stochastic hybrid system, consisting of one or more continuous variables evolving according to a piecewise-deterministic dynamics. The differential equations for the continuous variables are coupled to a set of discrete variables that satisfy a continuous-time Markov process, which means that the differential equations are only valid between jumps in the discrete variables. Examples of stochastic hybrid systems arise in biophysical models of stochastic ion channels, motor-driven intracellular transport, gene networks, and stochastic neural networks. We use the path-integral representation to derive a large deviation action principle for a stochastic hybrid system. Minimizing the associated action functional with respect to the set of all trajectories emanating from a metastable state (assuming that such a minimization scheme exists) then determines the most probable paths of escape. Moreover, evaluating the action functional along a most probable path generates the so-called quasipotential used in the calculation of mean first passage times. We illustrate the theory by considering the optimal paths of escape from a metastable state in a bistable neural network.

Lower-Stratospheric Control of the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martineau, Patrick; Chen, Gang; Son, Seok-Woo; Kim, Joowan

2018-03-01

The sensitivity of stratospheric polar vortex variability to the basic-state stratospheric temperature profile is investigated by performing a parameter sweep experiment with a dry dynamical core general circulation model where the equilibrium temperature profiles in the polar lower and upper stratosphere are systematically varied. It is found that stratospheric variability is more sensitive to the temperature distribution in the lower stratosphere than in the upper stratosphere. In particular, a cold lower stratosphere favors a strong time-mean polar vortex with a large daily variability, promoting frequent sudden stratospheric warming events in the model runs forced with both wavenumber-1 and wavenumber-2 topographies. This sensitivity is explained by the control exerted by the lower-stratospheric basic state onto fluxes of planetary-scale wave activity from the troposphere to the stratosphere, confirming that the lower stratosphere can act like a valve for the upward propagation of wave activity. It is further shown that with optimal model parameters, stratospheric polar vortex climatology and variability mimicking Southern and Northern Hemisphere conditions are obtained with both wavenumber-1 and wavenumber-2 topographies.

An improved maximum power point tracking method for a photovoltaic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouoba, David; Fakkar, Abderrahim; El Kouari, Youssef; Dkhichi, Fayrouz; Oukarfi, Benyounes

2016-06-01

In this paper, an improved auto-scaling variable step-size Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) method for photovoltaic (PV) system was proposed. To achieve simultaneously a fast dynamic response and stable steady-state power, a first improvement was made on the step-size scaling function of the duty cycle that controls the converter. An algorithm was secondly proposed to address wrong decision that may be made at an abrupt change of the irradiation. The proposed auto-scaling variable step-size approach was compared to some various other approaches from the literature such as: classical fixed step-size, variable step-size and a recent auto-scaling variable step-size maximum power point tracking approaches. The simulation results obtained by MATLAB/SIMULINK were given and discussed for validation.

Multimodel simulations of forest harvesting effects on long‐term productivity and CN cycling in aspen forests.

PubMed

Wang, Fugui; Mladenoff, David J; Forrester, Jodi A; Blanco, Juan A; Schelle, Robert M; Peckham, Scott D; Keough, Cindy; Lucash, Melissa S; Gower, Stith T

The effects of forest management on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics vary by harvest type and species. We simulated long-term effects of bole-only harvesting of aspen (Populus tremuloides) on stand productivity and interaction of CN cycles with a multiple model approach. Five models, Biome-BGC, CENTURY, FORECAST, LANDIS-II with Century-based soil dynamics, and PnET-CN, were run for 350 yr with seven harvesting events on nutrient-poor, sandy soils representing northwestern Wisconsin, United States. Twenty CN state and flux variables were summarized from the models' outputs and statistically analyzed using ordination and variance analysis methods. The multiple models' averages suggest that bole-only harvest would not significantly affect long-term site productivity of aspen, though declines in soil organic matter and soil N were significant. Along with direct N removal by harvesting, extensive leaching after harvesting before canopy closure was another major cause of N depletion. These five models were notably different in output values of the 20 variables examined, although there were some similarities for certain variables. PnET-CN produced unique results for every variable, and CENTURY showed fewer outliers and similar temporal patterns to the mean of all models. In general, we demonstrated that when there are no site-specific data for fine-scale calibration and evaluation of a single model, the multiple model approach may be a more robust approach for long-term simulations. In addition, multimodeling may also improve the calibration and evaluation of an individual model.

HS-SPM Mapping of Ferroelectric Domain Dynamics with Combined Nanoscale and Nanosecond Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polomoff, Nicholas Alexander

The unique properties of ferroelectric materials have been applied for a wide variety of device applications. In particular, properties such as spontaneous polarization and domain structure hysteresis at room temperature have rendered its application in nonvolatile memory devices such as FeRAMs. Along with the ever-present drive for smaller memory devices is the demand that they have increased operating speeds, longer retention times, lower power requirements and better overall reliability. It is therefore pertinent that further investigation of the dynamics, kinetics and mechanisms involved with ferroelectric domain polarization reversal at nanoscale lengths and temporal durations be conducted to optimize future ferroelectric based nonvolatile memory devices. Accordingly High Speed Piezoforce Microscopy (HSPFM) will be employed to directly investigate and observe the dynamic nucleation and growth progression of ferroelectric domain polarization reversal processes in thin epitaxial deposited PZT films. The capabilities of HSPFM will allow for in-situ direct observation of nascent dynamic domain polarization reversal events with nanoscale resolution. Correlations and characterization of the thin ferroelectric film samples will be made based on the observed polarization reversal dynamics and switching mechanism with respect to their varying strain states, compositions, and/or orientations. Electrical pulsing schemes will also be employed to enhance the HSPFM procedure to achieve nanoscale temporal resolution of nascent domain nucleation and growth events. A unique pulsing approach is also proposed, and tested, to improve power consumption during switching. Finally, artificial defects will be introduced into the PZT thin film by fabricating arrays of indentations with different shapes and loads. These controlled indents will result in the introduction of different stress states of compression and tension into the ferroelectric thin film. It is hypothesized that these different stress states will have a dramatic effect upon the polarization reversal process, domain nucleation and growth dynamics, as well as the device's overall performance. It is the aim of the research presented in this dissertation to leverage the superior lateral and temporal resolution of the HSPFM technique to observe the influence that a variety of different variables have upon polarization reversal and dynamic ferroelectric domain behavior in attempt to propose conventions in which such variables can be employed for the development of high functioning and overall better operating ferroelectric based devices.

An improved state-parameter analysis of ecosystem models using data assimilation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, M.; Liu, S.; Tieszen, L.L.; Hollinger, D.Y.

2008-01-01

Much of the effort spent in developing data assimilation methods for carbon dynamics analysis has focused on estimating optimal values for either model parameters or state variables. The main weakness of estimating parameter values alone (i.e., without considering state variables) is that all errors from input, output, and model structure are attributed to model parameter uncertainties. On the other hand, the accuracy of estimating state variables may be lowered if the temporal evolution of parameter values is not incorporated. This research develops a smoothed ensemble Kalman filter (SEnKF) by combining ensemble Kalman filter with kernel smoothing technique. SEnKF has following characteristics: (1) to estimate simultaneously the model states and parameters through concatenating unknown parameters and state variables into a joint state vector; (2) to mitigate dramatic, sudden changes of parameter values in parameter sampling and parameter evolution process, and control narrowing of parameter variance which results in filter divergence through adjusting smoothing factor in kernel smoothing algorithm; (3) to assimilate recursively data into the model and thus detect possible time variation of parameters; and (4) to address properly various sources of uncertainties stemming from input, output and parameter uncertainties. The SEnKF is tested by assimilating observed fluxes of carbon dioxide and environmental driving factor data from an AmeriFlux forest station located near Howland, Maine, USA, into a partition eddy flux model. Our analysis demonstrates that model parameters, such as light use efficiency, respiration coefficients, minimum and optimum temperatures for photosynthetic activity, and others, are highly constrained by eddy flux data at daily-to-seasonal time scales. The SEnKF stabilizes parameter values quickly regardless of the initial values of the parameters. Potential ecosystem light use efficiency demonstrates a strong seasonality. Results show that the simultaneous parameter estimation procedure significantly improves model predictions. Results also show that the SEnKF can dramatically reduce the variance in state variables stemming from the uncertainty of parameters and driving variables. The SEnKF is a robust and effective algorithm in evaluating and developing ecosystem models and in improving the understanding and quantification of carbon cycle parameters and processes. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Increased temporal variability of striatum region facilitating the early antidepressant response in patients with major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Hou, Zhenghua; Kong, Youyong; He, Xiaofu; Yin, Yingying; Zhang, Yuqun; Yuan, Yonggui

2018-07-13

The aim of this study is to identify the difference of temporal variability among major depressive disorder (MDD) patients (with different early antidepressant responses) and healthy controls (HC), and further explore the relationship between pre-treatment temporal variability and early antidepressant response. At baseline, 77 treatment-naïve inpatients with MDD and 42 matched HC received clinical assessments and 3.0 Tesla resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging scans. After 2 weeks' antidepressant treatment, the patients were subgrouped into responsive depression (RD, n = 40) and non-responding depression (NRD, n = 37) based on the reduction of Hamilton depression rating scale (HAMD). The temporal variability of 90 brain nodes was calculated for further analysis. Compared with the HC group, both the RD and NRD subjects showed greater baseline temporal variability (i.e., greater dynamic) in the left inferior occipital gyrus. Significantly greater temporal variability in the left pallidum was found in the RD group than the NRD and the HC groups, and the higher variability of left pallidum correlated positively with the HAMD reduction. Moreover, the pooled MDD (i.e., RD and NRD) group showed greater baseline temporal variability in the right inferior frontal gyrus, the left inferior occipital gyrus, the bilateral fusiform gyri and the left Heschl gyrus than the HC group. The distinctive pattern of dynamically reorganized networks may provide a crucial scaffold to facilitate early antidepressant response, and the temporal variability may serve as a promising indicator for the personalized therapy of MDD. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A framework model for water-sharing among co-basin states of a river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garg, N. K.; Azad, Shambhu

2018-05-01

A new framework model is presented in this study for sharing of water in a river basin using certain governing variables, in an effort to enhance the objectivity for a reasonable and equitable allocation of water among co-basin states. The governing variables were normalised to reduce the governing variables of different co-basin states of a river basin on same scale. In the absence of objective methods for evaluating the weights to be assigned to co-basin states for water allocation, a framework was conceptualised and formulated to determine the normalised weighting factors of different co-basin states as a function of the governing variables. The water allocation to any co-basin state had been assumed to be proportional to its struggle for equity, which in turn was assumed to be a function of the normalised discontent, satisfaction, and weighting factors of each co-basin state. System dynamics was used effectively to represent and solve the proposed model formulation. The proposed model was successfully applied to the Vamsadhara river basin located in the South-Eastern part of India, and a sensitivity analysis of the proposed model parameters was carried out to prove its robustness in terms of the proposed model convergence and validity over the broad spectrum values of the proposed model parameters. The solution converged quickly to a final allocation of 1444 million cubic metre (MCM) in the case of the Odisha co-basin state, and to 1067 MCM for the Andhra Pradesh co-basin state. The sensitivity analysis showed that the proposed model's allocation varied from 1584 MCM to 1336 MCM for Odisha state and from 927 to 1175 MCM for Andhra, depending upon the importance weights given to the governing variables for the calculation of the weighting factors. Thus, the proposed model was found to be very flexible to explore various policy options to arrive at a decision in a water sharing problem. It can therefore be effectively applied to any trans-boundary problem where there is conflict about water-sharing among co-basin states.

Analysis of chaos in high-dimensional wind power system.

PubMed

Wang, Cong; Zhang, Hongli; Fan, Wenhui; Ma, Ping

2018-01-01

A comprehensive analysis on the chaos of a high-dimensional wind power system is performed in this study. A high-dimensional wind power system is more complex than most power systems. An 11-dimensional wind power system proposed by Huang, which has not been analyzed in previous studies, is investigated. When the systems are affected by external disturbances including single parameter and periodic disturbance, or its parameters changed, chaotic dynamics of the wind power system is analyzed and chaotic parameters ranges are obtained. Chaos existence is confirmed by calculation and analysis of all state variables' Lyapunov exponents and the state variable sequence diagram. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that the wind power system chaos will occur when parameter variations and external disturbances change to a certain degree.

Extended state observer-based motion synchronisation control for hybrid actuation system of large civil aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xingjian; Shi, Cun; Wang, Shaoping

2017-07-01

Hybrid actuation system with dissimilar redundant actuators, which is composed of a hydraulic actuator (HA) and an electro-hydrostatic actuator (EHA), has been applied on modern civil aircraft to improve the reliability. However, the force fighting problem arises due to different dynamic performances between HA and EHA. This paper proposes an extended state observer (ESO)-based motion synchronisation control method. To cope with the problem of unavailability of the state signals, the well-designed ESO is utilised to observe the HA and EHA state variables which are unmeasured. In particular, the extended state of ESO can estimate the lumped effect of the unknown external disturbances acting on the control surface, the nonlinear dynamics, uncertainties, and the coupling term between HA and EHA. Based on the observed states of ESO, motion synchronisation controllers are presented to make HA and EHA to simultaneously track the desired motion trajectories, which are generated by a trajectory generator. Additionally, the unknown disturbances and the coupling terms can be compensated by using the extended state of the proposed ESO. Finally, comparative simulation results indicate that the proposed ESO-based motion synchronisation controller can achieve great force fighting reduction between HA and EHA.

Enhanced model of gear transmission dynamics for condition monitoring applications: Effects of torque, friction and bearing clearance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez-del-Rincon, A.; Garcia, P.; Diez-Ibarbia, A.; de-Juan, A.; Iglesias, M.; Viadero, F.

2017-02-01

Gear transmissions remain as one of the most complex mechanical systems from the point of view of noise and vibration behavior. Research on gear modeling leading to the obtaining of models capable of accurately reproduce the dynamic behavior of real gear transmissions has spread out the last decades. Most of these models, although useful for design stages, often include simplifications that impede their application for condition monitoring purposes. Trying to filling this gap, the model presented in this paper allows us to simulate gear transmission dynamics including most of these features usually neglected by the state of the art models. This work presents a model capable of considering simultaneously the internal excitations due to the variable meshing stiffness (including the coupling among successive tooth pairs in contact, the non-linearity linked with the contacts between surfaces and the dissipative effects), and those excitations consequence of the bearing variable compliance (including clearances or pre-loads). The model can also simulate gear dynamics in a realistic torque dependent scenario. The proposed model combines a hybrid formulation for calculation of meshing forces with a non-linear variable compliance approach for bearings. Meshing forces are obtained by means of a double approach which combines numerical and analytical aspects. The methodology used provides a detailed description of the meshing forces, allowing their calculation even when gear center distance is modified due to shaft and bearing flexibilities, which are unavoidable in real transmissions. On the other hand, forces at bearing level were obtained considering a variable number of supporting rolling elements, depending on the applied load and clearances. Both formulations have been developed and applied to the simulation of the vibration of a sample transmission, focusing the attention on the transmitted load, friction meshing forces and bearing preloads.

Drifting States and Synchronization Induced Chaos in Autonomous Networks of Excitable Neurons.

PubMed

Echeveste, Rodrigo; Gros, Claudius

2016-01-01

The study of balanced networks of excitatory and inhibitory neurons has led to several open questions. On the one hand it is yet unclear whether the asynchronous state observed in the brain is autonomously generated, or if it results from the interplay between external drivings and internal dynamics. It is also not known, which kind of network variabilities will lead to irregular spiking and which to synchronous firing states. Here we show how isolated networks of purely excitatory neurons generically show asynchronous firing whenever a minimal level of structural variability is present together with a refractory period. Our autonomous networks are composed of excitable units, in the form of leaky integrators spiking only in response to driving currents, remaining otherwise quiet. For a non-uniform network, composed exclusively of excitatory neurons, we find a rich repertoire of self-induced dynamical states. We show in particular that asynchronous drifting states may be stabilized in purely excitatory networks whenever a refractory period is present. Other states found are either fully synchronized or mixed, containing both drifting and synchronized components. The individual neurons considered are excitable and hence do not dispose of intrinsic natural firing frequencies. An effective network-wide distribution of natural frequencies is however generated autonomously through self-consistent feedback loops. The asynchronous drifting state is, additionally, amenable to an analytic solution. We find two types of asynchronous activity, with the individual neurons spiking regularly in the pure drifting state, albeit with a continuous distribution of firing frequencies. The activity of the drifting component, however, becomes irregular in the mixed state, due to the periodic driving of the synchronized component. We propose a new tool for the study of chaos in spiking neural networks, which consists of an analysis of the time series of pairs of consecutive interspike intervals. In this space, we show that a strange attractor with a fractal dimension of about 1.8 is formed in the mentioned mixed state.

Drifting States and Synchronization Induced Chaos in Autonomous Networks of Excitable Neurons

PubMed Central

Echeveste, Rodrigo; Gros, Claudius

2016-01-01

The study of balanced networks of excitatory and inhibitory neurons has led to several open questions. On the one hand it is yet unclear whether the asynchronous state observed in the brain is autonomously generated, or if it results from the interplay between external drivings and internal dynamics. It is also not known, which kind of network variabilities will lead to irregular spiking and which to synchronous firing states. Here we show how isolated networks of purely excitatory neurons generically show asynchronous firing whenever a minimal level of structural variability is present together with a refractory period. Our autonomous networks are composed of excitable units, in the form of leaky integrators spiking only in response to driving currents, remaining otherwise quiet. For a non-uniform network, composed exclusively of excitatory neurons, we find a rich repertoire of self-induced dynamical states. We show in particular that asynchronous drifting states may be stabilized in purely excitatory networks whenever a refractory period is present. Other states found are either fully synchronized or mixed, containing both drifting and synchronized components. The individual neurons considered are excitable and hence do not dispose of intrinsic natural firing frequencies. An effective network-wide distribution of natural frequencies is however generated autonomously through self-consistent feedback loops. The asynchronous drifting state is, additionally, amenable to an analytic solution. We find two types of asynchronous activity, with the individual neurons spiking regularly in the pure drifting state, albeit with a continuous distribution of firing frequencies. The activity of the drifting component, however, becomes irregular in the mixed state, due to the periodic driving of the synchronized component. We propose a new tool for the study of chaos in spiking neural networks, which consists of an analysis of the time series of pairs of consecutive interspike intervals. In this space, we show that a strange attractor with a fractal dimension of about 1.8 is formed in the mentioned mixed state. PMID:27708572

Impact of Soil Moisture Dynamics on ASAR Observed Backscatters and its Spatial Variability over the Upstream of the Heihe River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuguo

2013-01-01

The so called change detection method is a promising way to acquire soil moisture (SM) dynamics dependent on time series of radar backscatter (σ0) observations. The current study is a preceded step for using this method to carry out SM inversion at basin scale, in order to investigate the applicability of the change detection method in the Heihe River Basin, and to inspect the sensitivity of SAR signals to soil moisture variations. At the meantime, a prior knowledge of SM dynamics and land heterogeneities that may contribute to backscatter observations can be obtained. The impact of land surface states on spatial and temporal σ0 variability measured by ASAR has been evaluated in the upstream of the Heihe River Basin, which was one of the foci experimental areas (FEAs) in Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (WATER). Based on the in situ measurements provided by an automatic meteorological station (AMS) established at the A’rou site and time series of ASAR observations focused on a 1 km2 area, the relationships between the temporal dynamics of σ0 with in situ SM variations, and land heterogeneities of the study area according to the characteristics of spatial variability of σ0, were identified. The in situ measurements of soil moisture and temperature show a very clear seasonal freeze/thaw cycle in the study site. The temporal σ0 evolvement is basically coherent with ground measurements.

Dynamical modeling and analysis of large cellular regulatory networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bérenguier, D.; Chaouiya, C.; Monteiro, P. T.; Naldi, A.; Remy, E.; Thieffry, D.; Tichit, L.

2013-06-01

The dynamical analysis of large biological regulatory networks requires the development of scalable methods for mathematical modeling. Following the approach initially introduced by Thomas, we formalize the interactions between the components of a network in terms of discrete variables, functions, and parameters. Model simulations result in directed graphs, called state transition graphs. We are particularly interested in reachability properties and asymptotic behaviors, which correspond to terminal strongly connected components (or "attractors") in the state transition graph. A well-known problem is the exponential increase of the size of state transition graphs with the number of network components, in particular when using the biologically realistic asynchronous updating assumption. To address this problem, we have developed several complementary methods enabling the analysis of the behavior of large and complex logical models: (i) the definition of transition priority classes to simplify the dynamics; (ii) a model reduction method preserving essential dynamical properties, (iii) a novel algorithm to compact state transition graphs and directly generate compressed representations, emphasizing relevant transient and asymptotic dynamical properties. The power of an approach combining these different methods is demonstrated by applying them to a recent multilevel logical model for the network controlling CD4+ T helper cell response to antigen presentation and to a dozen cytokines. This model accounts for the differentiation of canonical Th1 and Th2 lymphocytes, as well as of inflammatory Th17 and regulatory T cells, along with many hybrid subtypes. All these methods have been implemented into the software GINsim, which enables the definition, the analysis, and the simulation of logical regulatory graphs.

Stochastic E2F activation and reconciliation of phenomenological cell-cycle models.

PubMed

Lee, Tae J; Yao, Guang; Bennett, Dorothy C; Nevins, Joseph R; You, Lingchong

2010-09-21

The transition of the mammalian cell from quiescence to proliferation is a highly variable process. Over the last four decades, two lines of apparently contradictory, phenomenological models have been proposed to account for such temporal variability. These include various forms of the transition probability (TP) model and the growth control (GC) model, which lack mechanistic details. The GC model was further proposed as an alternative explanation for the concept of the restriction point, which we recently demonstrated as being controlled by a bistable Rb-E2F switch. Here, through a combination of modeling and experiments, we show that these different lines of models in essence reflect different aspects of stochastic dynamics in cell cycle entry. In particular, we show that the variable activation of E2F can be described by stochastic activation of the bistable Rb-E2F switch, which in turn may account for the temporal variability in cell cycle entry. Moreover, we show that temporal dynamics of E2F activation can be recast into the frameworks of both the TP model and the GC model via parameter mapping. This mapping suggests that the two lines of phenomenological models can be reconciled through the stochastic dynamics of the Rb-E2F switch. It also suggests a potential utility of the TP or GC models in defining concise, quantitative phenotypes of cell physiology. This may have implications in classifying cell types or states.

Multi-year climate variability in the Southwestern United States within a context of a dynamically downscaled twentieth century reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrillo, Carlos M.; Castro, Christopher L.; Chang, Hsin-I.; Luong, Thang M.

2017-12-01

This investigation evaluates whether there is coherency in warm and cool season precipitation at the low-frequency scale that may be responsible for multi-year droughts in the US Southwest. This low-frequency climate variability at the decadal scale and longer is studied within the context of a twentieth-century reanalysis (20CR) and its dynamically-downscaled version (DD-20CR). A spectral domain matrix methods technique (Multiple-Taper-Method Singular Value Decomposition) is applied to these datasets to identify statistically significant spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for the cool (November-April) and warm (July-August) seasons. The low-frequency variability in the 20CR is evaluated by exploring global to continental-scale spatiotemporal variability in moisture flux convergence (MFC) to the occurrence of multiyear droughts and pluvials in Central America, as this region has a demonstrated anti-phase relationship in low-frequency climate variability with northern Mexico and the southwestern US By using the MFC in lieu of precipitation, this study reveals that the 20CR is able to resolve well the low-frequency, multiyear climate variability. In the context of the DD-20CR, multiyear droughts and pluvials in the southwestern US (in the early twentieth century) are significantly related to this low-frequency climate variability. The precipitation anomalies at these low-frequency timescales are in phase between the cool and warm seasons, consistent with the concept of dual-season drought as has been suggested in tree ring studies.

Dynamical compensation and structural identifiability of biological models: Analysis, implications, and reconciliation

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The concept of dynamical compensation has been recently introduced to describe the ability of a biological system to keep its output dynamics unchanged in the face of varying parameters. However, the original definition of dynamical compensation amounts to lack of structural identifiability. This is relevant if model parameters need to be estimated, as is often the case in biological modelling. Care should we taken when using an unidentifiable model to extract biological insight: the estimated values of structurally unidentifiable parameters are meaningless, and model predictions about unmeasured state variables can be wrong. Taking this into account, we explore alternative definitions of dynamical compensation that do not necessarily imply structural unidentifiability. Accordingly, we show different ways in which a model can be made identifiable while exhibiting dynamical compensation. Our analyses enable the use of the new concept of dynamical compensation in the context of parameter identification, and reconcile it with the desirable property of structural identifiability. PMID:29186132

Computational Models of Consumer Confidence from Large-Scale Online Attention Data: Crowd-Sourcing Econometrics

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting. PMID:25826692

Computational models of consumer confidence from large-scale online attention data: crowd-sourcing econometrics.

PubMed

Dong, Xianlei; Bollen, Johan

2015-01-01

Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting.

Mathematical modeling of control subsystems for CELSS: Application to diet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waleh, Ahmad; Nguyen, Thoi K.; Kanevsky, Valery

1991-01-01

The dynamic control of a Closed Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) in a closed space habitat is of critical importance. The development of a practical method of control is also a necessary step for the selection and design of realistic subsystems and processors for a CELSS. Diet is one of the dynamic factors that strongly influences, and is influenced, by the operational states of all major CELSS subsystems. The problems of design and maintenance of a stable diet must be obtained from well characterized expert subsystems. The general description of a mathematical model that forms the basis of an expert control program for a CELSS is described. The formulation is expressed in terms of a complete set of time dependent canonical variables. System representation is dynamic and includes time dependent storage buffers. The details of the algorithm are described. The steady state results of the application of the method for representative diets made from wheat, potato, and soybean are presented.

Disruption to control network function correlates with altered dynamic connectivity in the wider autism spectrum.

PubMed

de Lacy, N; Doherty, D; King, B H; Rachakonda, S; Calhoun, V D

2017-01-01

Autism is a common developmental condition with a wide, variable range of co-occurring neuropsychiatric symptoms. Contrasting with most extant studies, we explored whole-brain functional organization at multiple levels simultaneously in a large subject group reflecting autism's clinical diversity, and present the first network-based analysis of transient brain states, or dynamic connectivity , in autism. Disruption to inter-network and inter-system connectivity, rather than within individual networks, predominated. We identified coupling disruption in the anterior-posterior default mode axis, and among specific control networks specialized for task start cues and the maintenance of domain-independent task positive status, specifically between the right fronto-parietal and cingulo-opercular networks and default mode network subsystems. These appear to propagate downstream in autism, with significantly dampened subject oscillations between brain states, and dynamic connectivity configuration differences. Our account proposes specific motifs that may provide candidates for neuroimaging biomarkers within heterogeneous clinical populations in this diverse condition.

Physics of Non-Inertial Reference Frames

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kamalov, Timur F.

2010-12-22

Physics of non-inertial reference frames is a generalizing of Newton's laws to any reference frames. It is the system of general axioms for classical and quantum mechanics. The first, Kinematics Principle reads: the kinematic state of a body free of forces conserves and equal in absolute value to an invariant of the observer's reference frame. The second, Dynamics Principle extended Newton's second law to non-inertial reference frames and also contains additional variables there are higher derivatives of coordinates. Dynamics Principle reads: a force induces a change in the kinematic state of the body and is proportional to the rate ofmore » its change. It is mean that if the kinematic invariant of the reference frame is n-th derivative with respect the time, then the dynamics of a body being affected by the force F is described by the 2n-th differential equation. The third, Statics Principle reads: the sum of all forces acting a body at rest is equal to zero.« less

Charge Dynamics in near-Surface, Variable-Density Ensembles of Nitrogen-Vacancy Centers in Diamond.

PubMed

Dhomkar, Siddharth; Jayakumar, Harishankar; Zangara, Pablo R; Meriles, Carlos A

2018-06-13

Although the spin properties of superficial shallow nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers have been the subject of extensive scrutiny, considerably less attention has been devoted to studying the dynamics of NV charge conversion near the diamond surface. Using multicolor confocal microscopy, here we show that near-surface point defects arising from high-density ion implantation dramatically increase the ionization and recombination rates of shallow NVs compared to those in bulk diamond. Further, we find that these rates grow linearly, not quadratically, with laser intensity, indicative of single-photon processes enabled by NV state mixing with other defect states. Accompanying these findings, we observe NV ionization and recombination in the dark, likely the result of charge transfer to neighboring traps. Despite the altered charge dynamics, we show that one can imprint rewritable, long-lasting patterns of charged-initialized, near-surface NVs over large areas, an ability that could be exploited for electrochemical biosensing or to optically store digital data sets with subdiffraction resolution.

Integrated Approach to Inform the New York City Water Supply System Coupling SAR Remote Sensing Observations and the SWAT Watershed Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesser, D.; Hoang, L.; McDonald, K. C.

2017-12-01

Efforts to improve municipal water supply systems increasingly rely on an ability to elucidate variables that drive hydrologic dynamics within large watersheds. However, fundamental model variables such as precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and soil freeze/thaw state remain difficult to measure empirically across large, heterogeneous watersheds. Satellite remote sensing presents a method to validate these spatially and temporally dynamic variables as well as better inform the watershed models that monitor the water supply for many of the planet's most populous urban centers. PALSAR 2 L-band, Sentinel 1 C-band, and SMAP L-band scenes covering the Cannonsville branch of the New York City (NYC) water supply watershed were obtained for the period of March 2015 - October 2017. The SAR data provides information on soil moisture, free/thaw state, seasonal surface inundation, and variable source areas within the study site. Integrating the remote sensing products with watershed model outputs and ground survey data improves the representation of related processes in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) utilized to monitor the NYC water supply. PALSAR 2 supports accurate mapping of the extent of variable source areas while Sentinel 1 presents a method to model the timing and magnitude of snowmelt runoff events. SMAP Active Radar soil moisture product directly validates SWAT outputs at the subbasin level. This blended approach verifies the distribution of soil wetness classes within the watershed that delineate Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) in the modified SWAT-Hillslope. The research expands the ability to model the NYC water supply source beyond a subset of the watershed while also providing high resolution information across a larger spatial scale. The global availability of these remote sensing products provides a method to capture fundamental hydrology variables in regions where current modeling efforts and in situ data remain limited.

Analysis of control system responses for aircraft stability and efficient numerical techniques for real-time simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroe, Gabriela; Andrei, Irina-Carmen; Frunzulica, Florin

2017-01-01

The objectives of this paper are the study and the implementation of both aerodynamic and propulsion models, as linear interpolations using look-up tables in a database. The aerodynamic and propulsion dependencies on state and control variable have been described by analytic polynomial models. Some simplifying hypotheses were made in the development of the nonlinear aircraft simulations. The choice of a certain technique to use depends on the desired accuracy of the solution and the computational effort to be expended. Each nonlinear simulation includes the full nonlinear dynamics of the bare airframe, with a scaled direct connection from pilot inputs to control surface deflections to provide adequate pilot control. The engine power dynamic response was modeled with an additional state equation as first order lag in the actual power level response to commanded power level was computed as a function of throttle position. The number of control inputs and engine power states varied depending on the number of control surfaces and aircraft engines. The set of coupled, nonlinear, first-order ordinary differential equations that comprise the simulation model can be represented by the vector differential equation. A linear time-invariant (LTI) system representing aircraft dynamics for small perturbations about a reference trim condition is given by the state and output equations present. The gradients are obtained numerically by perturbing each state and control input independently and recording the changes in the trimmed state and output equations. This is done using the numerical technique of central finite differences, including the perturbations of the state and control variables. For a reference trim condition of straight and level flight, linearization results in two decoupled sets of linear, constant-coefficient differential equations for longitudinal and lateral / directional motion. The linearization is valid for small perturbations about the reference trim condition. Experimental aerodynamic and thrust data are used to model the applied aerodynamic and propulsion forces and moments for arbitrary states and controls. There is no closed form solution to such problems, so the equations must be solved using numerical integration. Techniques for solving this initial value problem for ordinary differential equations are employed to obtain approximate solutions at discrete points along the aircraft state trajectory.

Ecosystem functioning is enveloped by hydrometeorological variability.

PubMed

Pappas, Christoforos; Mahecha, Miguel D; Frank, David C; Babst, Flurin; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2017-09-01

Terrestrial ecosystem processes, and the associated vegetation carbon dynamics, respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Long-term variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle is not yet well constrained and the resulting climate-biosphere feedbacks are highly uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive overview of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability from hourly to decadal timescales integrating multiple in situ and remote-sensing datasets characterizing extra-tropical forest sites. We find that ecosystem variability at all sites is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope across sites and timescales. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. However, simulation results with state-of-the-art process-based models do not reflect this long-term persistent behaviour in ecosystem functioning. Accordingly, we develop a cross-time-scale stochastic framework that captures hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. Our analysis offers a perspective for terrestrial ecosystem modelling and paves the way for new model-data integration opportunities in Earth system sciences.

Solar Irradiance Variability is Caused by the Magnetic Activity on the Solar Surface.

PubMed

Yeo, Kok Leng; Solanki, Sami K; Norris, Charlotte M; Beeck, Benjamin; Unruh, Yvonne C; Krivova, Natalie A

2017-09-01

The variation in the radiative output of the Sun, described in terms of solar irradiance, is important to climatology. A common assumption is that solar irradiance variability is driven by its surface magnetism. Verifying this assumption has, however, been hampered by the fact that models of solar irradiance variability based on solar surface magnetism have to be calibrated to observed variability. Making use of realistic three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the solar atmosphere and state-of-the-art solar magnetograms from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we present a model of total solar irradiance (TSI) that does not require any such calibration. In doing so, the modeled irradiance variability is entirely independent of the observational record. (The absolute level is calibrated to the TSI record from the Total Irradiance Monitor.) The model replicates 95% of the observed variability between April 2010 and July 2016, leaving little scope for alternative drivers of solar irradiance variability at least over the time scales examined (days to years).

Single-Cell-Based Analysis Highlights a Surge in Cell-to-Cell Molecular Variability Preceding Irreversible Commitment in a Differentiation Process

PubMed Central

Boullu, Loïs; Morin, Valérie; Vallin, Elodie; Guillemin, Anissa; Papili Gao, Nan; Cosette, Jérémie; Arnaud, Ophélie; Kupiec, Jean-Jacques; Espinasse, Thibault

2016-01-01

In some recent studies, a view emerged that stochastic dynamics governing the switching of cells from one differentiation state to another could be characterized by a peak in gene expression variability at the point of fate commitment. We have tested this hypothesis at the single-cell level by analyzing primary chicken erythroid progenitors through their differentiation process and measuring the expression of selected genes at six sequential time-points after induction of differentiation. In contrast to population-based expression data, single-cell gene expression data revealed a high cell-to-cell variability, which was masked by averaging. We were able to show that the correlation network was a very dynamical entity and that a subgroup of genes tend to follow the predictions from the dynamical network biomarker (DNB) theory. In addition, we also identified a small group of functionally related genes encoding proteins involved in sterol synthesis that could act as the initial drivers of the differentiation. In order to assess quantitatively the cell-to-cell variability in gene expression and its evolution in time, we used Shannon entropy as a measure of the heterogeneity. Entropy values showed a significant increase in the first 8 h of the differentiation process, reaching a peak between 8 and 24 h, before decreasing to significantly lower values. Moreover, we observed that the previous point of maximum entropy precedes two paramount key points: an irreversible commitment to differentiation between 24 and 48 h followed by a significant increase in cell size variability at 48 h. In conclusion, when analyzed at the single cell level, the differentiation process looks very different from its classical population average view. New observables (like entropy) can be computed, the behavior of which is fully compatible with the idea that differentiation is not a “simple” program that all cells execute identically but results from the dynamical behavior of the underlying molecular network. PMID:28027290

Single-Cell-Based Analysis Highlights a Surge in Cell-to-Cell Molecular Variability Preceding Irreversible Commitment in a Differentiation Process.

PubMed

Richard, Angélique; Boullu, Loïs; Herbach, Ulysse; Bonnafoux, Arnaud; Morin, Valérie; Vallin, Elodie; Guillemin, Anissa; Papili Gao, Nan; Gunawan, Rudiyanto; Cosette, Jérémie; Arnaud, Ophélie; Kupiec, Jean-Jacques; Espinasse, Thibault; Gonin-Giraud, Sandrine; Gandrillon, Olivier

2016-12-01

In some recent studies, a view emerged that stochastic dynamics governing the switching of cells from one differentiation state to another could be characterized by a peak in gene expression variability at the point of fate commitment. We have tested this hypothesis at the single-cell level by analyzing primary chicken erythroid progenitors through their differentiation process and measuring the expression of selected genes at six sequential time-points after induction of differentiation. In contrast to population-based expression data, single-cell gene expression data revealed a high cell-to-cell variability, which was masked by averaging. We were able to show that the correlation network was a very dynamical entity and that a subgroup of genes tend to follow the predictions from the dynamical network biomarker (DNB) theory. In addition, we also identified a small group of functionally related genes encoding proteins involved in sterol synthesis that could act as the initial drivers of the differentiation. In order to assess quantitatively the cell-to-cell variability in gene expression and its evolution in time, we used Shannon entropy as a measure of the heterogeneity. Entropy values showed a significant increase in the first 8 h of the differentiation process, reaching a peak between 8 and 24 h, before decreasing to significantly lower values. Moreover, we observed that the previous point of maximum entropy precedes two paramount key points: an irreversible commitment to differentiation between 24 and 48 h followed by a significant increase in cell size variability at 48 h. In conclusion, when analyzed at the single cell level, the differentiation process looks very different from its classical population average view. New observables (like entropy) can be computed, the behavior of which is fully compatible with the idea that differentiation is not a "simple" program that all cells execute identically but results from the dynamical behavior of the underlying molecular network.

Identification of redundant and synergetic circuits in triplets of electrophysiological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erramuzpe, Asier; Ortega, Guillermo J.; Pastor, Jesus; de Sola, Rafael G.; Marinazzo, Daniele; Stramaglia, Sebastiano; Cortes, Jesus M.

2015-12-01

Objective. Neural systems are comprised of interacting units, and relevant information regarding their function or malfunction can be inferred by analyzing the statistical dependencies between the activity of each unit. While correlations and mutual information are commonly used to characterize these dependencies, our objective here is to extend interactions to triplets of variables to better detect and characterize dynamic information transfer. Approach. Our approach relies on the measure of interaction information (II). The sign of II provides information as to the extent to which the interaction of variables in triplets is redundant (R) or synergetic (S). Three variables are said to be redundant when a third variable, say Z, added to a pair of variables (X, Y), diminishes the information shared between X and Y. Similarly, the interaction in the triplet is said to be synergetic when conditioning on Z enhances the information shared between X and Y with respect to the unconditioned state. Here, based on this approach, we calculated the R and S status for triplets of electrophysiological data recorded from drug-resistant patients with mesial temporal lobe epilepsy in order to study the spatial organization and dynamics of R and S close to the epileptogenic zone (the area responsible for seizure propagation). Main results. In terms of spatial organization, our results show that R matched the epileptogenic zone while S was distributed more in the surrounding area. In relation to dynamics, R made the largest contribution to high frequency bands (14-100 Hz), while S was expressed more strongly at lower frequencies (1-7 Hz). Thus, applying II to such clinical data reveals new aspects of epileptogenic structure in terms of the nature (redundancy versus synergy) and dynamics (fast versus slow rhythms) of the interactions. Significance. We expect this methodology, robust and simple, can reveal new aspects beyond pair-interactions in networks of interacting units in other setups with multi-recording data sets (and thus, not necessarily in epilepsy, the pathology we have approached here).

User's guide to the Event Monitor: Part of Prognosis Model Version 6

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston

1990-01-01

Describes how to use the Event Monitor to dynamically invoke management activities in the Prognosis Model for Stand Development. The program accepts statements of conditions -- expressed as logical expressions of stand-state variables -- to be met and sets of activities to be simulated when the conditions are met. The combination of a condition and a set of activities...

Regional meteorological drivers and long term trends of winter-spring nitrate dynamics across watersheds in northeastern North America

Treesearch

Jill Crossman; M. Catherine Eimers; Nora J. Casson; Douglas A. Burns; John L. Campbell; Gene E. Likens; Myron J. Mitchell; Sarah J. Nelson; James B. Shanley; Shaun A. Watmough; Kara L. Webster

2016-01-01

This study evaluated the contribution of winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events to annual and seasonal nitrate (N-NO3) export and identified the regional meteorological drivers of inter-annual variability in ROS N-NO3 export (ROS-N) at 9 headwater streams located across Ontario, Canada and the northeastern United States. Although...

Development, succession, and stand dynamics of upland oak forests in the Wisconsin Driftless Area: Implications for oak regeneration and management

Treesearch

Megan L. Buchanan; Kurt F. Kipfmueller; Anthony W. D' Amato

2017-01-01

Throughout the deciduous forests of the eastern United States, oak (Quercus) regeneration has declined in stands historically dominated by oak species. In the Wisconsin Driftless Area, the level of decline in oak regeneration is variable and influenced by stand structural development, historical disturbance regime, abiotic site characteristics, and...

Using fire regimes to delineate zones in a high-resolution lake sediment record from the western United States

Treesearch

Jesse L. Morris; Andrea Brunelle; R. Justin DeRose; Heikki Seppa; Mitchell J. Power; Vachel Carter; Ryan Bares

2013-01-01

Paleoenvironmental reconstructions are important for understanding the influence of long-term climate variability on ecosystems and landscape disturbance dynamics. In this paper we explore the linkages among past climate, vegetation, and fire regimes using a high-resolution pollen and charcoal reconstruction from Morris Pond located on the Markagunt Plateau in...

Integrating continuous stocks and flows into state-and-transition simulation models of landscape change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Daniel, Colin J.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Frid, Leonardo; Fortin, Marie-Josée

2018-01-01

State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a general framework for forecasting landscape dynamics, including projections of both vegetation and land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The STSM method divides a landscape into spatially-referenced cells and then simulates the state of each cell forward in time, as a discrete-time stochastic process using a Monte Carlo approach, in response to any number of possible transitions. A current limitation of the STSM method, however, is that all of the state variables must be discrete.Here we present a new approach for extending a STSM, in order to account for continuous state variables, called a state-and-transition simulation model with stocks and flows (STSM-SF). The STSM-SF method allows for any number of continuous stocks to be defined for every spatial cell in the STSM, along with a suite of continuous flows specifying the rates at which stock levels change over time. The change in the level of each stock is then simulated forward in time, for each spatial cell, as a discrete-time stochastic process. The method differs from the traditional systems dynamics approach to stock-flow modelling in that the stocks and flows can be spatially-explicit, and the flows can be expressed as a function of the STSM states and transitions.We demonstrate the STSM-SF method by integrating a spatially-explicit carbon (C) budget model with a STSM of LULC change for the state of Hawai'i, USA. In this example, continuous stocks are pools of terrestrial C, while the flows are the possible fluxes of C between these pools. Importantly, several of these C fluxes are triggered by corresponding LULC transitions in the STSM. Model outputs include changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of C pools and fluxes across the landscape in response to projected future changes in LULC over the next 50 years.The new STSM-SF method allows both discrete and continuous state variables to be integrated into a STSM, including interactions between them. With the addition of stocks and flows, STSMs provide a conceptually simple yet powerful approach for characterizing uncertainties in projections of a wide range of questions regarding landscape change.

Towards Improved Forecasts of Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulations over the Complex Terrain of the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis; Case, Jonathan L.; Papadopoulos, Anastasios; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Mecikalski, John R.; Haines, Stephanie L.

2008-01-01

Forecasting atmospheric and oceanic circulations accurately over the Eastern Mediterranean has proved to be an exceptional challenge. The existence of fine-scale topographic variability (land/sea coverage) and seasonal dynamics variations can create strong spatial gradients in temperature, wind and other state variables, which numerical models may have difficulty capturing. The Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR) is one of the main operational centers for wave forecasting in the eastern Mediterranean. Currently, HCMR's operational numerical weather/ocean prediction model is based on the coupled Eta/Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Since 1999, HCMR has also operated the POSEIDON floating buoys as a means of state-of-the-art, real-time observations of several oceanic and surface atmospheric variables. This study attempts a first assessment at improving both atmospheric and oceanic prediction by initializing a regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model with high-resolution sea surface temperatures (SST) from remotely sensed platforms in order to capture the small-scale characteristics.

Evidence of Tropospheric 90 Day Oscillations in the Thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasperini, F.; Hagan, M. E.; Zhao, Y.

2017-10-01

In the last decade evidence demonstrated that terrestrial weather greatly impacts the dynamics and mean state of the thermosphere via small-scale gravity waves and global-scale solar tidal propagation and dissipation effects. While observations have shown significant intraseasonal variability in the upper mesospheric mean winds, relatively little is known about this variability at satellite altitudes (˜250-400 km). Using cross-track wind measurements from the Challenging Minisatellite Payload and Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer satellites, winds from a Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications/Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model simulation, and outgoing longwave radiation data, we demonstrate the existence of a prominent and global-scale 90 day oscillation in the thermospheric zonal mean winds and in the diurnal eastward propagating tide with zonal wave number 3 (DE3) during 2009-2010 and present evidence of its connection to variability in tropospheric convective activity. This study suggests that strong coupling between the troposphere and the thermosphere occurs on intraseasonal timescales.

Simulating the dynamic behavior of a vertical axis wind turbine operating in unsteady conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battisti, L.; Benini, E.; Brighenti, A.; Soraperra, G.; Raciti Castelli, M.

2016-09-01

The present work aims at assessing the reliability of a simulation tool capable of computing the unsteady rotational motion and the associated tower oscillations of a variable speed VAWT immersed in a coherent turbulent wind. As a matter of fact, since the dynamic behaviour of a variable speed turbine strongly depends on unsteady wind conditions (wind gusts), a steady state approach can't accurately catch transient correlated issues. The simulation platform proposed here is implemented using a lumped mass approach: the drive train is described by resorting to both the polar inertia and the angular position of rotating parts, also considering their speed and acceleration, while rotor aerodynamic is based on steady experimental curves. The ultimate objective of the presented numerical platform is the simulation of transient phenomena, driven by turbulence, occurring during rotor operation, with the aim of supporting the implementation of efficient and robust control algorithms.

Self-organized sorting limits behavioral variability in swarms

PubMed Central

Copenhagen, Katherine; Quint, David A.; Gopinathan, Ajay

2016-01-01

Swarming is a phenomenon where collective motion arises from simple local interactions between typically identical individuals. Here, we investigate the effects of variability in behavior among the agents in finite swarms with both alignment and cohesive interactions. We show that swarming is abolished above a critical fraction of non-aligners who do not participate in alignment. In certain regimes, however, swarms above the critical threshold can dynamically reorganize and sort out excess non-aligners to maintain the average fraction close to the critical value. This persists even in swarms with a distribution of alignment interactions, suggesting a simple, robust and efficient mechanism that allows heterogeneously mixed populations to naturally regulate their composition and remain in a collective swarming state or even differentiate among behavioral phenotypes. We show that, for evolving swarms, this self-organized sorting behavior can couple to the evolutionary dynamics leading to new evolutionarily stable equilibrium populations set by the physical swarm parameters. PMID:27550316

Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of Heart Rate Variability are Correlated with Purpose in Life and Degree of Optimism in Anxiety Disorder Patients.

PubMed

Oh, Jihoon; Chae, Jeong-Ho

2018-04-01

Although heart rate variability (HRV) may be a crucial marker of mental health, how it is related to positive psychological factors (i.e. attitude to life and positive thinking) is largely unknown. Here we investigated the correlation of HRV linear and nonlinear dynamics with psychological scales that measured degree of optimism and happiness in patients with anxiety disorders. Results showed that low- to high-frequency HRV ratio (LF/HF) was increased and the HRV HF parameter was decreased in subjects who were more optimistic and who felt happier in daily living. Nonlinear analysis also showed that HRV dispersion and regulation were significantly correlated with the subjects' optimism and purpose in life. Our findings showed that HRV properties might be related to degree of optimistic perspectives on life and suggests that HRV markers of autonomic nervous system function could reflect positive human mind states.

Self-organized sorting limits behavioral variability in swarms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Copenhagen, Katherine; Quint, David A.; Gopinathan, Ajay

2016-08-01

Swarming is a phenomenon where collective motion arises from simple local interactions between typically identical individuals. Here, we investigate the effects of variability in behavior among the agents in finite swarms with both alignment and cohesive interactions. We show that swarming is abolished above a critical fraction of non-aligners who do not participate in alignment. In certain regimes, however, swarms above the critical threshold can dynamically reorganize and sort out excess non-aligners to maintain the average fraction close to the critical value. This persists even in swarms with a distribution of alignment interactions, suggesting a simple, robust and efficient mechanism that allows heterogeneously mixed populations to naturally regulate their composition and remain in a collective swarming state or even differentiate among behavioral phenotypes. We show that, for evolving swarms, this self-organized sorting behavior can couple to the evolutionary dynamics leading to new evolutionarily stable equilibrium populations set by the physical swarm parameters.

Diffusion-Controlled Recrystallization of Water Sorbed into Poly(meth)acrylates Revealed by Variable-Temperature Mid-Infrared Spectroscopy and Molecular Dynamics Simulation.

PubMed

Yasoshima, Nobuhiro; Fukuoka, Mizuki; Kitano, Hiromi; Kagaya, Shigehiro; Ishiyama, Tatsuya; Gemmei-Ide, Makoto

2017-05-18

Recrystallization behaviors of water sorbed into four poly(meth)acrylates, poly(2-methoxyethyl acrylate), poly(tetrahydrofurfuryl acrylate), poly(methyl acrylate), and poly(methyl methacrylate), are investigated by variable-temperature mid-infrared (VT-MIR) spectroscopy and molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. VT-MIR spectra demonstrate that recrystallization temperatures of water sorbed into the polymers are positively correlated with their glass-transition temperatures reported previously. The present MD simulation shows that a lower-limit temperature of the diffusion for the sorbed water and the glass-transition temperatures of the polymers also have a positive correlation, indicating that the recrystallization is controlled by diffusion mechanism rather than reorientation mechanism. Detailed molecular processes of not only recrystallization during rewarming but also crystallization during cooling and hydrogen-bonding states of water in the polymers are systematically analyzed and discussed.

Integrated time-lapse and single-cell transcription studies highlight the variable and dynamic nature of human hematopoietic cell fate commitment

PubMed Central

Moussy, Alice; Cosette, Jérémie; Parmentier, Romuald; da Silva, Cindy; Corre, Guillaume; Richard, Angélique; Gandrillon, Olivier; Stockholm, Daniel

2017-01-01

Individual cells take lineage commitment decisions in a way that is not necessarily uniform. We address this issue by characterising transcriptional changes in cord blood-derived CD34+ cells at the single-cell level and integrating data with cell division history and morphological changes determined by time-lapse microscopy. We show that major transcriptional changes leading to a multilineage-primed gene expression state occur very rapidly during the first cell cycle. One of the 2 stable lineage-primed patterns emerges gradually in each cell with variable timing. Some cells reach a stable morphology and molecular phenotype by the end of the first cell cycle and transmit it clonally. Others fluctuate between the 2 phenotypes over several cell cycles. Our analysis highlights the dynamic nature and variable timing of cell fate commitment in hematopoietic cells, links the gene expression pattern to cell morphology, and identifies a new category of cells with fluctuating phenotypic characteristics, demonstrating the complexity of the fate decision process (which is different from a simple binary switch between 2 options, as it is usually envisioned). PMID:28749943

Reduced linear noise approximation for biochemical reaction networks with time-scale separation: The stochastic tQSSA+

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herath, Narmada; Del Vecchio, Domitilla

2018-03-01

Biochemical reaction networks often involve reactions that take place on different time scales, giving rise to "slow" and "fast" system variables. This property is widely used in the analysis of systems to obtain dynamical models with reduced dimensions. In this paper, we consider stochastic dynamics of biochemical reaction networks modeled using the Linear Noise Approximation (LNA). Under time-scale separation conditions, we obtain a reduced-order LNA that approximates both the slow and fast variables in the system. We mathematically prove that the first and second moments of this reduced-order model converge to those of the full system as the time-scale separation becomes large. These mathematical results, in particular, provide a rigorous justification to the accuracy of LNA models derived using the stochastic total quasi-steady state approximation (tQSSA). Since, in contrast to the stochastic tQSSA, our reduced-order model also provides approximations for the fast variable stochastic properties, we term our method the "stochastic tQSSA+". Finally, we demonstrate the application of our approach on two biochemical network motifs found in gene-regulatory and signal transduction networks.

Dynamical Jahn Teller distortion in single crystals of Cu(II) doped magnesium potassium phosphate hexahydrate: a variable temperature EPR study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

PrabhuKantan, A.; Velavan, K.; Venkatesan, R.; Sambasiva Rao, P.

2003-05-01

Single crystal electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) studies on Cu(II)-doped magnesium potassium phosphate hexahydrate have been carried out at room temperature. The temperature dependence of g and A values has been obtained for the polycrystalline sample and the ground state is unambiguously identified. These results indicate the existence of a dynamic Jahn-Teller distortion for Cu(II) ion. The g and A tensor direction cosines are evaluated and compared with Mg-O directions, which confirms that Cu(II) enters substitutionally in the lattice.

Differential flatness properties and adaptive control of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigatos, Gerasimos

2016-12-01

It is shown that the model of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal gland axis is a differentially flat one and this permits to transform it to the so-called linear canonical form. For the new description of the system's dynamics the transformed control inputs contain unknown terms which depend on the system's parameters. To identify these terms an adaptive fuzzy approximator is used in the control loop. Thus an adaptive fuzzy control scheme is implemented in which the unknown or unmodeled system dynamics is approximated by neurofuzzy networks and next this information is used by a feedback controller that makes the state variables (CRH - corticotropin releasing hormone, adenocortocotropic hormone - ACTH, cortisol) of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal gland axis model converge to the desirable levels (setpoints). This adaptive control scheme is exclusively implemented with the use of output feedback, while the state vector elements which are not directly measured are estimated with the use of a state observer that operates in the control loop. The learning rate of the adaptive fuzzy system is suitably computed from Lyapunov analysis, so as to assure that both the learning procedure for the unknown system's parameters, the dynamics of the observer and the dynamics of the control loop will remain stable. The performed Lyapunov stability analysis depends on two Riccati equations, one associated with the feedback controller and one associated with the state observer. Finally, it is proven that for the control scheme that comprises the feedback controller, the state observer and the neurofuzzy approximator, an H-infinity tracking performance can be succeeded.

A scalable moment-closure approximation for large-scale biochemical reaction networks

PubMed Central

Kazeroonian, Atefeh; Theis, Fabian J.; Hasenauer, Jan

2017-01-01

Abstract Motivation: Stochastic molecular processes are a leading cause of cell-to-cell variability. Their dynamics are often described by continuous-time discrete-state Markov chains and simulated using stochastic simulation algorithms. As these stochastic simulations are computationally demanding, ordinary differential equation models for the dynamics of the statistical moments have been developed. The number of state variables of these approximating models, however, grows at least quadratically with the number of biochemical species. This limits their application to small- and medium-sized processes. Results: In this article, we present a scalable moment-closure approximation (sMA) for the simulation of statistical moments of large-scale stochastic processes. The sMA exploits the structure of the biochemical reaction network to reduce the covariance matrix. We prove that sMA yields approximating models whose number of state variables depends predominantly on local properties, i.e. the average node degree of the reaction network, instead of the overall network size. The resulting complexity reduction is assessed by studying a range of medium- and large-scale biochemical reaction networks. To evaluate the approximation accuracy and the improvement in computational efficiency, we study models for JAK2/STAT5 signalling and NFκB signalling. Our method is applicable to generic biochemical reaction networks and we provide an implementation, including an SBML interface, which renders the sMA easily accessible. Availability and implementation: The sMA is implemented in the open-source MATLAB toolbox CERENA and is available from https://github.com/CERENADevelopers/CERENA. Contact: jan.hasenauer@helmholtz-muenchen.de or atefeh.kazeroonian@tum.de Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:28881983

Criticality meets learning: Criticality signatures in a self-organizing recurrent neural network

PubMed Central

Del Papa, Bruno; Priesemann, Viola

2017-01-01

Many experiments have suggested that the brain operates close to a critical state, based on signatures of criticality such as power-law distributed neuronal avalanches. In neural network models, criticality is a dynamical state that maximizes information processing capacities, e.g. sensitivity to input, dynamical range and storage capacity, which makes it a favorable candidate state for brain function. Although models that self-organize towards a critical state have been proposed, the relation between criticality signatures and learning is still unclear. Here, we investigate signatures of criticality in a self-organizing recurrent neural network (SORN). Investigating criticality in the SORN is of particular interest because it has not been developed to show criticality. Instead, the SORN has been shown to exhibit spatio-temporal pattern learning through a combination of neural plasticity mechanisms and it reproduces a number of biological findings on neural variability and the statistics and fluctuations of synaptic efficacies. We show that, after a transient, the SORN spontaneously self-organizes into a dynamical state that shows criticality signatures comparable to those found in experiments. The plasticity mechanisms are necessary to attain that dynamical state, but not to maintain it. Furthermore, onset of external input transiently changes the slope of the avalanche distributions – matching recent experimental findings. Interestingly, the membrane noise level necessary for the occurrence of the criticality signatures reduces the model’s performance in simple learning tasks. Overall, our work shows that the biologically inspired plasticity and homeostasis mechanisms responsible for the SORN’s spatio-temporal learning abilities can give rise to criticality signatures in its activity when driven by random input, but these break down under the structured input of short repeating sequences. PMID:28552964

Time-Variable Phenomena in the Jovian System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belton, Michael J. S. (Editor); West, Robert A. (Editor); Rahe, Jurgen (Editor); Pereyda, Margarita

1989-01-01

The current state of knowledge of dynamic processes in the Jovian system is assessed and summaries are provided of both theoretical and observational foundations upon which future research might be based. There are three sections: satellite phenomena and rings; magnetospheric phenomena, Io's torus, and aurorae; and atmospheric phenomena. Each chapter discusses time dependent theoretical framework for understanding and interpreting what is observed; others describe the evidence and nature of observed changes or their absence. A few chapters provide historical perspective and attempt to present a comprehensive synthesis of the current state of knowledge.

Effect of microstructural damage on ply stresses in laminated composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, D. H.; Nottorf, E. W.; Harris, C. E.

1988-01-01

The mechanisms involved in damage and failure of laminated orthotropic composites are investigated theoretically. The continuum model developed accounts for both matrix cracks and interply delamination using second-order tensor-valued internal-state variables based on the locally averaged microcrack dynamics. The derivation of the model is given in detail, and numerical results for sample problems are presented in extensive graphs and tables. The model is shown to be effective in predicting stresses at the ply level, and significant damage-induced decreases in laminate stress states are found.

Modeling Long-Term Fluvial Incision : Shall we Care for the Details of Short-Term Fluvial Dynamics?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lague, D.; Davy, P.

2008-12-01

Fluvial incision laws used in numerical models of coupled climate, erosion and tectonics systems are mainly based on the family of stream power laws for which the rate of local erosion E is a power function of the topographic slope S and the local mean discharge Q : E = K Qm Sn. The exponents m and n are generally taken as (0.35, 0.7) or (0.5, 1), and K is chosen such that the predicted topographic elevation given the prevailing rates of precipitation and tectonics stay within realistic values. The resulting topographies are reasonably realistic, and the coupled system dynamics behaves somehow as expected : more precipitation induces increased erosion and localization of the deformation. Yet, if we now focus on smaller scale fluvial dynamics (the reach scale), recent advances have suggested that discharge variability, channel width dynamics or sediment flux effects may play a significant role in controlling incision rates. These are not factored in the simple stream power law model. In this work, we study how these short- term details propagate into long-term incision dynamics within the framework of surface/tectonics coupled numerical models. To upscale the short term dynamics to geological timescales, we use a numerical model of a trapezoidal river in which vertical and lateral incision processes are computed from fluid shear stress at a daily timescale, sediment transport and protection effects are factored in, as well as a variable discharge. We show that the stream power law model might still be a valid model but that as soon as realistic effects are included such as a threshold for sediment transport, variable discharge and dynamic width the resulting exponents m and n can be as high as 2 and 4. This high non-linearity has a profound consequence on the sensitivity of fluvial relief to incision rate. We also show that additional complexity does not systematically translates into more non-linear behaviour. For instance, considering only a dynamical width without discharge variability does not induce a significant difference in the predicted long-term incision law and scaling of relief with incision rate at steady-state. We conclude that the simple stream power law models currently in use are false, and that details of short-term fluvial dynamics must make their way into long-term evolution models to avoid oversimplifying the coupled dynamics between erosion, tectonics and climate.

Functional connectivity dynamics: modeling the switching behavior of the resting state.

PubMed

Hansen, Enrique C A; Battaglia, Demian; Spiegler, Andreas; Deco, Gustavo; Jirsa, Viktor K

2015-01-15

Functional connectivity (FC) sheds light on the interactions between different brain regions. Besides basic research, it is clinically relevant for applications in Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia, presurgical planning, epilepsy, and traumatic brain injury. Simulations of whole-brain mean-field computational models with realistic connectivity determined by tractography studies enable us to reproduce with accuracy aspects of average FC in the resting state. Most computational studies, however, did not address the prominent non-stationarity in resting state FC, which may result in large intra- and inter-subject variability and thus preclude an accurate individual predictability. Here we show that this non-stationarity reveals a rich structure, characterized by rapid transitions switching between a few discrete FC states. We also show that computational models optimized to fit time-averaged FC do not reproduce these spontaneous state transitions and, thus, are not qualitatively superior to simplified linear stochastic models, which account for the effects of structure alone. We then demonstrate that a slight enhancement of the non-linearity of the network nodes is sufficient to broaden the repertoire of possible network behaviors, leading to modes of fluctuations, reminiscent of some of the most frequently observed Resting State Networks. Because of the noise-driven exploration of this repertoire, the dynamics of FC qualitatively change now and display non-stationary switching similar to empirical resting state recordings (Functional Connectivity Dynamics (FCD)). Thus FCD bear promise to serve as a better biomarker of resting state neural activity and of its pathologic alterations. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A subthreshold aVLSI implementation of the Izhikevich simple neuron model.

PubMed

Rangan, Venkat; Ghosh, Abhishek; Aparin, Vladimir; Cauwenberghs, Gert

2010-01-01

We present a circuit architecture for compact analog VLSI implementation of the Izhikevich neuron model, which efficiently describes a wide variety of neuron spiking and bursting dynamics using two state variables and four adjustable parameters. Log-domain circuit design utilizing MOS transistors in subthreshold results in high energy efficiency, with less than 1pJ of energy consumed per spike. We also discuss the effects of parameter variations on the dynamics of the equations, and present simulation results that replicate several types of neural dynamics. The low power operation and compact analog VLSI realization make the architecture suitable for human-machine interface applications in neural prostheses and implantable bioelectronics, as well as large-scale neural emulation tools for computational neuroscience.

Noise and poise: Enhancement of postural complexity in the elderly with a stochastic-resonance based therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, M.; Priplata, A. A.; Lipsitz, L. A.; Wu, Z.; Huang, N. E.; Goldberger, A. L.; Peng, C.-K.

2007-03-01

Pathologic states are associated with a loss of dynamical complexity. Therefore, therapeutic interventions that increase physiologic complexity may enhance health status. Using multiscale entropy analysis, we show that the postural sway dynamics of healthy young and healthy elderly subjects are more complex than that of elderly subjects with a history of falls. Application of subsensory noise to the feet has been demonstrated to improve postural stability in the elderly. We next show that this therapy significantly increases the multiscale complexity of sway fluctuations in healthy elderly subjects. Quantification of changes in dynamical complexity of biologic variability may be the basis of a new approach to assessing risk and to predicting the efficacy of clinical interventions, including noise-based therapies.

Optimal control theory investigation of proprotor/wing response to vertical gust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frick, J. K. D.; Johnson, W.

1974-01-01

Optimal control theory is used to design linear state variable feedback to improve the dynamic characteristics of a rotor and cantilever wing representing the tilting proprotor aircraft in cruise flight. The response to a vertical gust and system damping are used as criteria for the open and closed loop performance. The improvement in the dynamic characteristics achievable is examined for a gimballed rotor and for a hingeless rotor design. Several features of the design process are examined, including: (1) using only the wing or only the rotor dynamics in the control system design; (2) the use of a wing flap as well as the rotor controls for inputs; (3) and the performance of the system designed for one velocity at other forward speeds.

Reducing the Dynamical Degradation by Bi-Coupling Digital Chaotic Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lingfeng; Liu, Bocheng; Hu, Hanping; Miao, Suoxia

A chaotic map which is realized on a computer will suffer dynamical degradation. Here, a coupled chaotic model is proposed to reduce the dynamical degradation. In this model, the state variable of one digital chaotic map is used to control the parameter of the other digital map. This coupled model is universal and can be used for all chaotic maps. In this paper, two coupled models (one is coupled by two logistic maps, the other is coupled by Chebyshev map and Baker map) are performed, and the numerical experiments show that the performances of these two coupled chaotic maps are greatly improved. Furthermore, a simple pseudorandom bit generator (PRBG) based on coupled digital logistic maps is proposed as an application for our method.

Current problems in the dynamics and design of mechanisms and machines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kestel'Man, V. N.

The papers contained in this volume deal with possible ways of improving the dynamic and structural properties of machines and mechanisms and also with problems associated with the design of aircraft equipment. Topics discussed include estimation of the stressed state of a model of an orbital film structure, a study of the operation of an aerodynamic angle transducer in flow of a hot gas, calculation of the efficiency of aircraft gear drives, and dynamic accuracy of a controlled manipulator. Papers are also presented on optimal synthesis of mechanical systems with variable properties, synthesis of mechanisms using initial kinematic chains, and using shape memory materials in the design of machines and mechanisms. (For individual items see A93-31202 to A93-31214)

On the adaptive sliding mode controller for a hyperchaotic fractional-order financial system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajipour, Ahamad; Hajipour, Mojtaba; Baleanu, Dumitru

2018-05-01

This manuscript mainly focuses on the construction, dynamic analysis and control of a new fractional-order financial system. The basic dynamical behaviors of the proposed system are studied such as the equilibrium points and their stability, Lyapunov exponents, bifurcation diagrams, phase portraits of state variables and the intervals of system parameters. It is shown that the system exhibits hyperchaotic behavior for a number of system parameters and fractional-order values. To stabilize the proposed hyperchaotic fractional system with uncertain dynamics and disturbances, an efficient adaptive sliding mode controller technique is developed. Using the proposed technique, two hyperchaotic fractional-order financial systems are also synchronized. Numerical simulations are presented to verify the successful performance of the designed controllers.

Nonlinear optimal control for the synchronization of chaotic and hyperchaotic finance systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigatos, G.; Siano, P.; Loia, V.; Ademi, S.; Ghosh, T.

2017-11-01

It is possible to make specific finance systems get synchronized to other finance systems exhibiting chaotic and hyperchaotic dynamics, by applying nonlinear optimal (H-infinity) control. This signifies that chaotic behavior can be generated in finance systems by exerting a suitable control input. Actually, a lead financial system is considered which exhibits inherently chaotic dynamics. Moreover, a follower finance system is introduced having parameters in its model that inherently prohibit the appearance of chaotic dynamics. Through the application of a suitable nonlinear optimal (H-infinity) control input it is proven that the follower finance system can replicate the chaotic dynamics of the lead finance system. By applying Lyapunov analysis it is proven that asymptotically the follower finance system gets synchronized with the lead system and that the tracking error between the state variables of the two systems vanishes.

Hybrid state vector methods for structural dynamic and aeroelastic boundary value problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lehman, L. L.

1982-01-01

A computational technique is developed that is suitable for performing preliminary design aeroelastic and structural dynamic analyses of large aspect ratio lifting surfaces. The method proves to be quite general and can be adapted to solving various two point boundary value problems. The solution method, which is applicable to both fixed and rotating wing configurations, is based upon a formulation of the structural equilibrium equations in terms of a hybrid state vector containing generalized force and displacement variables. A mixed variational formulation is presented that conveniently yields a useful form for these state vector differential equations. Solutions to these equations are obtained by employing an integrating matrix method. The application of an integrating matrix provides a discretization of the differential equations that only requires solutions of standard linear matrix systems. It is demonstrated that matrix partitioning can be used to reduce the order of the required solutions. Results are presented for several example problems in structural dynamics and aeroelasticity to verify the technique and to demonstrate its use. These problems examine various types of loading and boundary conditions and include aeroelastic analyses of lifting surfaces constructed from anisotropic composite materials.

Conservative-variable average states for equilibrium gas multi-dimensional fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iannelli, G. S.

1992-01-01

Modern split component evaluations of the flux vector Jacobians are thoroughly analyzed for equilibrium-gas average-state determinations. It is shown that all such derivations satisfy a fundamental eigenvalue consistency theorem. A conservative-variable average state is then developed for arbitrary equilibrium-gas equations of state and curvilinear-coordinate fluxes. Original expressions for eigenvalues, sound speed, Mach number, and eigenvectors are then determined for a general average Jacobian, and it is shown that the average eigenvalues, Mach number, and eigenvectors may not coincide with their classical pointwise counterparts. A general equilibrium-gas equation of state is then discussed for conservative-variable computational fluid dynamics (CFD) Euler formulations. The associated derivations lead to unique compatibility relations that constrain the pressure Jacobian derivatives. Thereafter, alternative forms for the pressure variation and average sound speed are developed in terms of two average pressure Jacobian derivatives. Significantly, no additional degree of freedom exists in the determination of these two average partial derivatives of pressure. Therefore, they are simultaneously computed exactly without any auxiliary relation, hence without any geometric solution projection or arbitrary scale factors. Several alternative formulations are then compared and key differences highlighted with emphasis on the determination of the pressure variation and average sound speed. The relevant underlying assumptions are identified, including some subtle approximations that are inherently employed in published average-state procedures. Finally, a representative test case is discussed for which an intrinsically exact average state is determined. This exact state is then compared with the predictions of recent methods, and their inherent approximations are appropriately quantified.

A stochastic global identification framework for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopsaftopoulos, Fotis; Nardari, Raphael; Li, Yu-Hung; Chang, Fu-Kuo

2018-01-01

In this work, a novel data-based stochastic "global" identification framework is introduced for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states and uncertainty. In this context, the term "global" refers to the identification of a model that is capable of representing the structure under any admissible flight state based on data recorded from a sample of these states. The proposed framework is based on stochastic time-series models for representing the structural dynamics and aeroelastic response under multiple flight states, with each state characterized by several variables, such as the airspeed, angle of attack, altitude and temperature, forming a flight state vector. The method's cornerstone lies in the new class of Vector-dependent Functionally Pooled (VFP) models which allow the explicit analytical inclusion of the flight state vector into the model parameters and, hence, system dynamics. This is achieved via the use of functional data pooling techniques for optimally treating - as a single entity - the data records corresponding to the various flight states. In this proof-of-concept study the flight state vector is defined by two variables, namely the airspeed and angle of attack of the vehicle. The experimental evaluation and assessment is based on a prototype bio-inspired self-sensing composite wing that is subjected to a series of wind tunnel experiments under multiple flight states. Distributed micro-sensors in the form of stretchable sensor networks are embedded in the composite layup of the wing in order to provide the sensing capabilities. Experimental data collected from piezoelectric sensors are employed for the identification of a stochastic global VFP model via appropriate parameter estimation and model structure selection methods. The estimated VFP model parameters constitute two-dimensional functions of the flight state vector defined by the airspeed and angle of attack. The identified model is able to successfully represent the wing's aeroelastic response under the admissible flight states via a minimum number of estimated parameters compared to standard identification approaches. The obtained results demonstrate the high accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed global identification framework, thus constituting a first step towards the next generation of "fly-by-feel" aerospace vehicles with state awareness capabilities.

Influence of vegetation dynamic modeling on the allocation of green and blue waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Pérez, Guiomar; Francés, Félix

2015-04-01

The long history of the Mediterranean region is dominated by the interactions and co-evolution between man and its natural environment. It is important to consider that the Mediterranean region is recurrently or permanently confronted with the scarcity of the water. The issue of climate change is (and will be) aggravating this situation. This raises the question of a loss of services that ecosystems provide to human and also the amount of available water to be used by vegetation. The question of the water cycle, therefore, should be considered in an integrated manner by taking into account both blue water (water in liquid form used for the human needs or which flows into the oceans) and green water (water having the vapor for resulting from evaporation and transpiration processes). In spite of this, traditionally, very few hydrological models have incorporated the vegetation dynamic as a state variable. In fact, most of them are able to represent fairly well the observed discharge, but usually including the vegetation as a static parameter. However, in the last decade, the number of hydrological models which explicitly take into account the vegetation development as a state variable has increased substantially. In this work, we want to analyze if it is really necessary to use a dynamic vegetation model to quantify adequately the distribution of water into blue and green water. The study site is located in the Public Forest Monte de la Hunde y Palomeras (Spain). The vegetation in the study area is dominated by Aleppo pine of high tree density with scant presence of other species. Two different daily models were applied (with static and dynamic vegetation representation respectively) in three different scenarios: dry year (2005), normal year (2008) and wet year (2010). The static vegetation model simulates the evapotranspiration considering the vegetation as a stationary parameter. Contrarily, the dynamic vegetation model connects the hydrological model with a parsimonious dynamic vegetation sub-model which assumes the vegetation biomass as a state variable. Using both models, we estimated the amount of 'blue' water and the amount of 'green' water (according to the previous definitions) in each scenario. Comparing the results, we observed that the static model underestimated the amount of green water in any case (dry, normal or wet year). In fact, the value of the ratio between blue and green water is higher in all scenarios for the static option (0.23 in the dry year, 0.42 in the normal year and 0.96 in the wet year) than the obtained ones for the dynamic model (0.098, 0.29 and 0.76, respectively). It means that we are overestimating the amount of water available for human needs if we assume vegetation as static. This type of error can be very dangerous for water resources predictions with future climates, especially in Mediterranean areas due to their water scarcity.

Complexity Science Framework for Big Data: Data-enabled Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surjalal Sharma, A.

2016-07-01

The ubiquity of Big Data has stimulated the development of analytic tools to harness the potential for timely and improved modeling and prediction. While much of the data is available near-real time and can be compiled to specify the current state of the system, the capability to make predictions is lacking. The main reason is the basic nature of Big Data - the traditional techniques are challenged in their ability to cope with its velocity, volume and variability to make optimum use of the available information. Another aspect is the absence of an effective description of the time evolution or dynamics of the specific system, derived from the data. Once such dynamical models are developed predictions can be made readily. This approach of " letting the data speak for itself " is distinct from the first-principles models based on the understanding of the fundamentals of the system. The predictive capability comes from the data-derived dynamical model, with no modeling assumptions, and can address many issues such as causality and correlation. This approach provides a framework for addressing the challenges in Big Data, especially in the case of spatio-temporal time series data. The reconstruction of dynamics from time series data is based on recognition that in most systems the different variables or degrees of freedom are coupled nonlinearly and in the presence of dissipation the state space contracts, effectively reducing the number of variables, thus enabling a description of its dynamical evolution and consequently prediction of future states. The predictability is analysed from the intrinsic characteristics of the distribution functions, such as Hurst exponents and Hill estimators. In most systems the distributions have heavy tails, which imply higher likelihood for extreme events. The characterization of the probabilities of extreme events are critical in many cases e. g., natural hazards, for proper assessment of risk and mitigation strategies. Big Data with such new analytics can yield improved risk estimates. The challenges of scientific inference from complex and massive data are addressed by data-enabled science, also referred as the Fourth paradigm, after experiment, theory and simulation. An example of this approach is the modelling of dynamical and statistical features of natural systems, without assumptions of specific processes. An effective use of the techniques of complexity science to yield the inherent features of a system from extensive data from observations and large scale numerical simulations is evident in the case of Earth's magnetosphere. The multiscale nature of the magnetosphere makes the numerical simulations a challenge, requiring very large computing resources. The reconstruction of dynamics from observational data can however yield the inherent characteristics using typical desktop computers. Such studies for other systems are in progress. Data-enabled approach using the framework of complexity science provides new techniques for modelling and prediction using Big Data. The studies of Earth's magnetosphere, provide an example of the potential for a new approach to the development of quantitative analytic tools.

State Estimation Using Dependent Evidence Fusion: Application to Acoustic Resonance-Based Liquid Level Measurement.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaobin; Li, Zhenghui; Li, Guo; Zhou, Zhe

2017-04-21

Estimating the state of a dynamic system via noisy sensor measurement is a common problem in sensor methods and applications. Most state estimation methods assume that measurement noise and state perturbations can be modeled as random variables with known statistical properties. However in some practical applications, engineers can only get the range of noises, instead of the precise statistical distributions. Hence, in the framework of Dempster-Shafer (DS) evidence theory, a novel state estimatation method by fusing dependent evidence generated from state equation, observation equation and the actual observations of the system states considering bounded noises is presented. It can be iteratively implemented to provide state estimation values calculated from fusion results at every time step. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a low-frequency acoustic resonance level gauge to obtain high-accuracy measurement results.

Simplified rotor load models and fatigue damage estimates for offshore wind turbines.

PubMed

Muskulus, M

2015-02-28

The aim of rotor load models is to characterize and generate the thrust loads acting on an offshore wind turbine. Ideally, the rotor simulation can be replaced by time series from a model with a few parameters and state variables only. Such models are used extensively in control system design and, as a potentially new application area, structural optimization of support structures. Different rotor load models are here evaluated for a jacket support structure in terms of fatigue lifetimes of relevant structural variables. All models were found to be lacking in accuracy, with differences of more than 20% in fatigue load estimates. The most accurate models were the use of an effective thrust coefficient determined from a regression analysis of dynamic thrust loads, and a novel stochastic model in state-space form. The stochastic model explicitly models the quasi-periodic components obtained from rotational sampling of turbulent fluctuations. Its state variables follow a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Although promising, more work is needed on how to determine the parameters of the stochastic model and before accurate lifetime predictions can be obtained without comprehensive rotor simulations. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Dynamically Intuitive and Potentially Predicatable Three-Dimensional Structures in the Low Frequency Flow Variability of the Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wettstein, J. J.; Li, C.; Bradshaw, S.

2016-12-01

Canonical tropospheric climate variability patterns and their corresponding indices are ubiquitous, yet a firm dynamical interpretation has remained elusive for many of even the leading extratropical patterns. Part of the lingering difficulty in understanding and predicting atmospheric low frequency variability is the fact that the identification itself of the different patterns is indistinct. This study characterizes three-dimensional structures in the low frequency variability of the extratropical zonal wind field within the entire period of record of the ERA-Interim reanalysis and suggests the foundations for a new paradigm in identifying and predicting extratropical atmospheric low-frequency variability. In concert with previous results, there is a surprisingly rich three-dimensional structure to the variance of the zonal wind field that is not (cannot be) captured by traditional identification protocols that explore covariance of pressure in the lower troposphere, flow variability in the zonal mean or, for that matter, in any variable on any planar surface. Correspondingly, many of the pressure-based canonical indices of low frequency atmospheric variability exhibit inconsistent relationships to physically intuitive reorganizations of the subtropical and polar front jets and with other forcing mechanisms. Different patterns exhibit these inconsistencies to a greater or lesser extent. The three-dimensional variance of the zonal wind field is, by contrast, naturally organized around dynamically intuitive atmospheric redistributions that have a surprisingly large amount of physically intuitive information in the vertical. These conclusions are robust in a variety of seasons and also in intra-seasonal and inter-annual explorations. Similar results and conclusions are also derived using detrended data, other reanalyses, and state-of-the-art coupled climate model output. In addition to providing a clearer perspective on the distinct three-dimensional patterns of atmospheric low frequency variability, the time evolution and potential predictability of the resultant patterns can be explored with much greater clarity because of an intrinsic link between the patterns and the requisite conservation of momentum (i.e. to the primitive equations and candidate forcing mechanisms).

Structure of a viscoplastic theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freed, Alan D.

1988-01-01

The general structure of a viscoplastic theory is developed from physical and thermodynamical considerations. The flow equation is of classical form. The dynamic recovery approach is shown to be superior to the hardening function approach for incorporating nonlinear strain hardening into the material response through the evolutionary equation for back stress. A novel approach for introducing isotropic strain hardening into the theory is presented, which results in a useful simplification. In particular, the limiting stress for the kinematic saturation of state (not the drag stress) is the chosen scalar-valued state variable. The resulting simplification is that there is no coupling between dynamic and thermal recovery terms in each evolutionary equation. The derived theory of viscoplasticity has the structure of a two-surface plasticity theory when the response is plasticlike, and the structure of a Bailey-Orowan creep theory when the response is creeplike.

Assessing the Reliability of the Dynamics Reconstructed from Metadynamics.

PubMed

Salvalaglio, Matteo; Tiwary, Pratyush; Parrinello, Michele

2014-04-08

Sampling a molecular process characterized by an activation free energy significantly larger than kBT is a well-known challenge in molecular dynamics simulations. In a recent work [Tiwary and Parrinello, Phys. Rev. Lett. 2013, 111, 230602], we have demonstrated that the transition times of activated molecular transformations can be computed from well-tempered metadynamics provided that no bias is deposited in the transition state region and that the set of collective variables chosen to enhance sampling does not display hysteresis. Ensuring though that these two criteria are met may not always be simple. Here we build on the fact that the times of escape from a long-lived metastable state obey Poisson statistics. This allows us to identify quantitative measures of trustworthiness of our calculation. We test our method on a few paradigmatic examples.

Distributed model predictive control for constrained nonlinear systems with decoupled local dynamics.

PubMed

Zhao, Meng; Ding, Baocang

2015-03-01

This paper considers the distributed model predictive control (MPC) of nonlinear large-scale systems with dynamically decoupled subsystems. According to the coupled state in the overall cost function of centralized MPC, the neighbors are confirmed and fixed for each subsystem, and the overall objective function is disassembled into each local optimization. In order to guarantee the closed-loop stability of distributed MPC algorithm, the overall compatibility constraint for centralized MPC algorithm is decomposed into each local controller. The communication between each subsystem and its neighbors is relatively low, only the current states before optimization and the optimized input variables after optimization are being transferred. For each local controller, the quasi-infinite horizon MPC algorithm is adopted, and the global closed-loop system is proven to be exponentially stable. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global fast dynamic terminal sliding mode control for a quadrotor UAV.

PubMed

Xiong, Jing-Jing; Zhang, Guo-Bao

2017-01-01

A control method based on global fast dynamic terminal sliding mode control (TSMC) technique is proposed to design the flight controller for performing the finite-time position and attitude tracking control of a small quadrotor UAV. Firstly, the dynamic model of the quadrotor is divided into two subsystems, i.e., a fully actuated subsystem and an underactuated subsystem. Secondly, the dynamic flight controllers of the quadrotor are formulated based on global fast dynamic TSMC, which is able to guarantee that the position and velocity tracking errors of all system state variables converge to zero in finite-time. Moreover, the global fast dynamic TSMC is also able to eliminate the chattering phenomenon caused by the switching control action and realize the high precision performance. In addition, the stabilities of two subsystems are demonstrated by Lyapunov theory, respectively. Lastly, the simulation results are given to illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed control method in the presence of external disturbances. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Vertically Lagrangian Finite-Volume Dynamical Core for Global Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shian-Jiann

2003-01-01

A finite-volume dynamical core with a terrain-following Lagrangian control-volume discretization is described. The vertically Lagrangian discretization reduces the dimensionality of the physical problem from three to two with the resulting dynamical system closely resembling that of the shallow water dynamical system. The 2D horizontal-to-Lagrangian-surface transport and dynamical processes are then discretized using the genuinely conservative flux-form semi-Lagrangian algorithm. Time marching is split- explicit, with large-time-step for scalar transport, and small fractional time step for the Lagrangian dynamics, which permits the accurate propagation of fast waves. A mass, momentum, and total energy conserving algorithm is developed for mapping the state variables periodically from the floating Lagrangian control-volume to an Eulerian terrain-following coordinate for dealing with physical parameterizations and to prevent severe distortion of the Lagrangian surfaces. Deterministic baroclinic wave growth tests and long-term integrations using the Held-Suarez forcing are presented. Impact of the monotonicity constraint is discussed.

Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics.

PubMed

Koons, David N; Colchero, Fernando; Hersey, Kent; Gimenez, Olivier

2015-06-01

Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semiarid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, USA, we applied a Bayesian state-space model to a 72-yr time series of abundance counts. While accounting for known harvest (as well as live removal) from the population, we found that the bison population in southern Utah exhibited a strong potential to grow from low density (β0 = 0.26; Bayesian credible interval based on 95% of the highest posterior density [BCI] = 0.19-0.33), and weak but statistically significant density dependence (β1 = -0.02, BCI = -0.04 to -0.004). Early spring temperatures also had strong positive effects on population growth (Pfat1 = 0.09, BCI = 0.04-0.14), much more so than precipitation and other temperature-related variables (model weight > three times more than that for other climate variables). Although we hypothesized that harvest is the primary driving force of bison population dynamics in southern Utah, our elasticity analysis indicated that changes in early spring temperature could have a greater relative effect on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or. the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife management policies and planning.

The insertion of human dynamics models in the flight control loops of V/STOL research aircraft. Appendix 2: The optimal control model of a pilot in V/STOL aircraft control loops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zipf, Mark E.

1989-01-01

An overview is presented of research work focussed on the design and insertion of classical models of human pilot dynamics within the flight control loops of V/STOL aircraft. The pilots were designed and configured for use in integrated control system research and design. The models of human behavior that were considered are: McRuer-Krendel (a single variable transfer function model); and Optimal Control Model (a multi-variable approach based on optimal control and stochastic estimation theory). These models attempt to predict human control response characteristics when confronted with compensatory tracking and state regulation tasks. An overview, mathematical description, and discussion of predictive limitations of the pilot models is presented. Design strategies and closed loop insertion configurations are introduced and considered for various flight control scenarios. Models of aircraft dynamics (both transfer function and state space based) are developed and discussed for their use in pilot design and application. Pilot design and insertion are illustrated for various flight control objectives. Results of pilot insertion within the control loops of two V/STOL research aricraft (Sikorski Black Hawk UH-60A, McDonnell Douglas Harrier II AV-8B) are presented and compared against actual pilot flight data. Conclusions are reached on the ability of the pilot models to adequately predict human behavior when confronted with similar control objectives.

The Effects of Sexual Partnerships and Relationship Characteristics on Three Sexual Risk Variables in Young Men Who Have Sex with Men

PubMed Central

Newcomb, Michael E.; Ryan, Daniel T.; Garofalo, Robert; Mustanski, Brian

2014-01-01

Young men who have sex with men (YMSM) in the United States are experiencing an alarming increase in HIV incidence. Recent evidence suggests that the majority of new HIV infections in YMSM occur in the context of serious relationships, which underscores the importance of examining predictors of sexual risk behavior in the context of sexual partnerships, including relationship type, sexual partner characteristics, and relationship dynamics. The current study aimed to evaluate relationship and sexual partnership influences on sexual risk behavior in YMSM, including differentiating between multiple sexual risk variables (i.e., any unprotected anal or vaginal intercourse, unprotected insertive anal or vaginal intercourse, and unprotected receptive anal intercourse). More serious/familiar partnerships were associated with more sexual risk across all three risk variables, while wanting a relationship to last was protective against risk across all three risk variables. Some variables were differentially linked to unprotected insertive sex (partner gender) or unprotected receptive sex (partner age, partner race, believing a partner was having sex with others, and partners repeated across waves). Sexual risk behavior in YMSM is inconsistent across sexual partnerships and appears to be determined in no small part by sexual partner characteristics, relationship dynamics, and sexual role (i.e., insertive or receptive partner). These influences are critical in understanding sexual risk in YMSM and provide important targets for intervention. PMID:24217953

Structure and temporal variation of the phytoplankton of a macrotidal beach from the Amazon coastal zone.

PubMed

Matos, Jislene B; Oliveira, Suellen M O DE; Pereira, Luci C C; Costa, Rauquírio M DA

2016-09-01

The present study aimed to analyze the structure and the temporal variation of the phytoplankton of Ajuruteua beach (Bragança, Pará) and to investigate the influence of environmental variables on the dynamics of this community to provide a basis about the trophic state of this environment. Biological, hydrological and hydrodynamic samplings were performed during a nyctemeral cycle in the months of November/08, March/09, June/09 and September/09. We identified 110 taxa, which were distributed among the diatoms (87.3%), dinoflagellates (11.8%) and cyanobacteria (0.9%), with the predominance of neritic species, followed by the tychoplankton species. Chlorophyll-a concentrations were the highest during the rainy period (24.5 mg m-3), whereas total phytoplankton density was higher in the dry period (1,255 x 103 cell L-1). However, phytoflagellates density was significantly higher during the rainy period. Cluster Analysis revealed the formation of four groups, which were influenced by the monthly differences in the environmental variables. The Principal Component Analysis indicated salinity and chlorophyll-a as the main variables that explained the components. Spearman correlation analysis supported the influence of these variables on the local phytoplankton community. Overall, the results obtained suggest that rainfall and strong local hydrodynamics play an important role in the dynamic of the phytoplankton of Ajuruteua beach, by influencing both environmental and biological variables.

On climate prediction: how much can we expect from climate memory?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Naiming; Huang, Yan; Duan, Jianping; Zhu, Congwen; Xoplaki, Elena; Luterbacher, Jürg

2018-03-01

Slowing variability in climate system is an important source of climate predictability. However, it is still challenging for current dynamical models to fully capture the variability as well as its impacts on future climate. In this study, instead of simulating the internal multi-scale oscillations in dynamical models, we discussed the effects of internal variability in terms of climate memory. By decomposing climate state x(t) at a certain time point t into memory part M(t) and non-memory part ɛ (t) , climate memory effects from the past 30 years on climate prediction are quantified. For variables with strong climate memory, high variance (over 20% ) in x(t) is explained by the memory part M(t), and the effects of climate memory are non-negligible for most climate variables, but the precipitation. Regarding of multi-steps climate prediction, a power law decay of the explained variance was found, indicating long-lasting climate memory effects. The explained variances by climate memory can remain to be higher than 10% for more than 10 time steps. Accordingly, past climate conditions can affect both short (monthly) and long-term (interannual, decadal, or even multidecadal) climate predictions. With the memory part M(t) precisely calculated from Fractional Integral Statistical Model, one only needs to focus on the non-memory part ɛ (t) , which is an important quantity that determines climate predictive skills.

The effects of sexual partnership and relationship characteristics on three sexual risk variables in young men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Newcomb, Michael E; Ryan, Daniel T; Garofalo, Robert; Mustanski, Brian

2014-01-01

Young men who have sex with men (YMSM) in the United States are experiencing an alarming increase in HIV incidence. Recent evidence suggests that the majority of new HIV infections in YMSM occur in the context of serious relationships, which underscores the importance of examining predictors of sexual risk behavior in the context of sexual partnerships, including relationship type, sexual partner characteristics, and relationship dynamics. The current study aimed to evaluate relationship and sexual partnership influences on sexual risk behavior in YMSM, including differentiating between multiple sexual risk variables (i.e., any unprotected anal or vaginal intercourse, unprotected insertive anal or vaginal intercourse, and unprotected receptive anal intercourse). More serious/familiar partnerships were associated with more sexual risk across all three risk variables, while wanting a relationship to last was protective against risk across all three risk variables. Some variables were differentially linked to unprotected insertive sex (partner gender) or unprotected receptive sex (partner age, partner race, believing a partner was having sex with others, and partners repeated across waves). Sexual risk behavior in YMSM is inconsistent across sexual partnerships and appears to be determined in no small part by sexual partner characteristics, relationship dynamics, and sexual role (i.e., insertive or receptive partner). These influences are critical in understanding sexual risk in YMSM and provide important targets for intervention.

Variability of human corticospinal excitability tracks the state of action preparation.

PubMed

Klein-Flügge, Miriam C; Nobbs, David; Pitcher, Julia B; Bestmann, Sven

2013-03-27

Task-evoked trial-by-trial variability is a ubiquitous property of neural responses, yet its functional role remains largely unclear. Recent work in nonhuman primates shows that the temporal structure of neural variability in several brain regions is task-related. For example, trial-by-trial variability in premotor cortex tracks motor preparation with increasingly consistent firing rates and thus a decline in variability before movement onset. However, whether noninvasive measures of the variability of population activity available from humans can similarly track the preparation of actions remains unknown. We tested this by using single-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) over primary motor cortex (M1) to measure corticospinal excitability (CSE) at different times during action preparation. First, we established the basic properties of intrinsic CSE variability at rest. Then, during the task, responses (left or right button presses) were either directly instructed (forced choice) or resulted from a value decision (choice). Before movement onset, we observed a temporally specific task-related decline in CSE variability contralateral to the responding hand. This decline was stronger in fast-response compared with slow-response trials, consistent with data in nonhuman primates. For the nonresponding hand, CSE variability also decreased, but only in choice trials, and earlier compared with the responding hand, possibly reflecting choice-specific suppression of unselected actions. These findings suggest that human CSE variability measured by TMS over M1 tracks the state of motor preparation, and may reflect the optimization of preparatory population activity. This provides novel avenues in humans to assess the dynamics of action preparation but also more complex processes, such as choice-to-action transformations.

Design tradeoffs in long-term research for stream salamanders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brand, Adrianne B,; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2017-01-01

Long-term research programs can benefit from early and periodic evaluation of their ability to meet stated objectives. In particular, consideration of the spatial allocation of effort is key. We sampled 4 species of stream salamanders intensively for 2 years (2010–2011) in the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Historical Park, Maryland, USA to evaluate alternative distributions of sampling locations within stream networks, and then evaluated via simulation the ability of multiple survey designs to detect declines in occupancy and to estimate dynamic parameters (colonization, extinction) over 5 years for 2 species. We expected that fine-scale microhabitat variables (e.g., cobble, detritus) would be the strongest determinants of occupancy for each of the 4 species; however, we found greater support for all species for models including variables describing position within the stream network, stream size, or stream microhabitat. A monitoring design focused on headwater sections had greater power to detect changes in occupancy and the dynamic parameters in each of 3 scenarios for the dusky salamander (Desmognathus fuscus) and red salamander (Pseudotriton ruber). Results for transect length were more variable, but across all species and scenarios, 25-m transects are most suitable as a balance between maximizing detection probability and describing colonization and extinction. These results inform sampling design and provide a general framework for setting appropriate goals, effort, and duration in the initial planning stages of research programs on stream salamanders in the eastern United States.

Carbon, fire, and fuels: The importance of fuels and fuel characterization and the status of wildland fire fuels data for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, N. H. F.; Prichard, S.; McKenzie, D.; Kennedy, M. C.; Billmire, M.; Ottmar, R. D.; Kasischke, E. S.

2016-12-01

Quantification of emissions of carbon during combustion relies on knowing three general variables: how much landscape is impacted by fire (burn area), how much carbon is in that landscape (fuel loading), and fuel properties that determine the fraction that is consumed (fuel condition). These variables also determine how much carbon remains at the site in the form of unburned organic material or char, and therefore drive post-fire carbon dynamics and pools. In this presentation we review the importance of understanding fuel type, fuel loading, and fuel condition for quantifying carbon dynamics properly during burning and for measuring and mapping fuels across landscapes, regions, and continents. Variability in fuels has been shown to be a major driver of uncertainty in fire emissions, but has had little attention until recently. We review the current state of fuel characterization for fire management and carbon accounting, and present a new approach to quantifying fuel loading for use in fire-emissions mapping and for improving fire-effects assessment. The latest results of a study funded by the Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) are presented, where a fuel loading database is being built to quantify variation in fuel loadings, as represented in the Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS), across the conterminous US and Alaska. Statistical assessments of these data at multiple spatial scales will improve tools used by fire managers and scientists to quantify fire's impact on the land, atmosphere, and carbon cycle.

Application of Spaceborne Scatterometer for Mapping Freeze-Thaw State in Northern Landscapes as a Measure of Ecological and Hydrological Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDonald, Kyle; Kimball, John; Zimmermann, Reiner; Way, JoBea; Frolking, Steve; Running, Steve

1999-01-01

Landscape freeze/thaw transitions coincide with marked shifts in albedo, surface energy and mass exchange, and associated snow dynamics. Monitoring landscape freeze/thaw dynamics would improve our ability to quantify the interannual variability of boreal hydrology and river runoff/flood dynamics. The annual duration of frost-free period also bounds the period of photosynthetic activity in boreal and arctic regions thus affecting the annual carbon budget and the interannual variability of regional carbon fluxes. In this study, we use the NASA scatterometer (NSCAT) to monitor the temporal change in the radar backscatter signature across selected ecoregions of the boreal zone. We have measured vegetation tissue temperatures, soil temperature profiles, and micrometeorological parameters in situ at selected sites along a north-south transect extending across Alaska from Prudhoe Bay to the Kenai Peninsula and in Siberia near the Yenisey River. Data from these stations have been used to quantify the scatterometer's sensitivity to freeze/thaw state under a variety of terrain and landcover conditions. Analysis of the NSCAT temporal response over the 1997 spring thaw cycle shows a 3 to 5 dB change in measured backscatter that is well correlated with the landscape springtime thaw process. Having verified the instrument's capability to monitor freeze/thaw transitions, regional scale mosaicked data are applied to derive temporal series of freeze/thaw transition maps for selected circumpolar high latitude regions. These maps are applied to derive areal extent of frozen and thawed landscape and demonstrate the utility of spaceborne radar for operational monitoring of seasonal freeze-thaw dynamics and associated biophysical processes for the circumpolar high latitudes.

Rivers and Floodplains as Key Components of Global Terrestrial Water Storage Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getirana, Augusto; Kumar, Sujay; Girotto, Manuela; Rodell, Matthew

2017-10-01

This study quantifies the contribution of rivers and floodplains to terrestrial water storage (TWS) variability. We use state-of-the-art models to simulate land surface processes and river dynamics and to separate TWS into its main components. Based on a proposed impact index, we show that surface water storage (SWS) contributes 8% of TWS variability globally, but that contribution differs widely among climate zones. Changes in SWS are a principal component of TWS variability in the tropics, where major rivers flow over arid regions and at high latitudes. SWS accounts for 22-27% of TWS variability in both the Amazon and Nile Basins. Changes in SWS are negligible in the Western U.S., Northern Africa, Middle East, and central Asia. Based on comparisons with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment-based TWS, we conclude that accounting for SWS improves simulated TWS in most of South America, Africa, and Southern Asia, confirming that SWS is a key component of TWS variability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williamson, David L.; Olson, Jerry G.; Hannay, Cécile

An error in the energy formulation in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is identified and corrected. Ten year AMIP simulations are compared using the correct and incorrect energy formulations. Statistics of selected primary variables all indicate physically insignificant differences between the simulations, comparable to differences with simulations initialized with rounding sized perturbations. The two simulations are so similar mainly because of an inconsistency in the application of the incorrect energy formulation in the original CAM. CAM used the erroneous energy form to determine the states passed between the parameterizations, but used a form related to the correct formulation for themore » state passed from the parameterizations to the dynamical core. If the incorrect form is also used to determine the state passed to the dynamical core the simulations are significantly different. In addition, CAM uses the incorrect form for the global energy fixer, but that seems to be less important. The difference of the magnitude of the fixers using the correct and incorrect energy definitions is very small.« less

Energy considerations in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)

DOE PAGES

Williamson, David L.; Olson, Jerry G.; Hannay, Cécile; ...

2015-06-30

An error in the energy formulation in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is identified and corrected. Ten year AMIP simulations are compared using the correct and incorrect energy formulations. Statistics of selected primary variables all indicate physically insignificant differences between the simulations, comparable to differences with simulations initialized with rounding sized perturbations. The two simulations are so similar mainly because of an inconsistency in the application of the incorrect energy formulation in the original CAM. CAM used the erroneous energy form to determine the states passed between the parameterizations, but used a form related to the correct formulation for themore » state passed from the parameterizations to the dynamical core. If the incorrect form is also used to determine the state passed to the dynamical core the simulations are significantly different. In addition, CAM uses the incorrect form for the global energy fixer, but that seems to be less important. The difference of the magnitude of the fixers using the correct and incorrect energy definitions is very small.« less

Arbitrary-quantum-state preparation of a harmonic oscillator via optimal control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojan, Katharina; Reich, Daniel M.; Dotsenko, Igor; Raimond, Jean-Michel; Koch, Christiane P.; Morigi, Giovanna

2014-08-01

The efficient initialization of a quantum system is a prerequisite for quantum technological applications. Here we show that several classes of quantum states of a harmonic oscillator can be efficiently prepared by means of a Jaynes-Cummings interaction with a single two-level system. This is achieved by suitably tailoring external fields which drive the dipole and/or the oscillator. The time-dependent dynamics that leads to the target state is identified by means of optimal control theory (OCT) based on Krotov's method. Infidelities below 10-4 can be reached for the parameters of the experiment of Raimond, Haroche, Brune and co-workers, where the oscillator is a mode of a high-Q microwave cavity and the dipole is a Rydberg transition of an atom. For this specific situation we analyze the limitations on the fidelity due to parameter fluctuations and identify robust dynamics based on pulses found using ensemble OCT. Our analysis can be extended to quantum-state preparation of continuous-variable systems in other platforms, such as trapped ions and circuit QED.

Lack of linear correlation between dynamic and steady-state cerebral autoregulation.

PubMed

de Jong, Daan L K; Tarumi, Takashi; Liu, Jie; Zhang, Rong; Claassen, Jurgen A H R

2017-08-15

For correct application and interpretation of cerebral autoregulation (CA) measurements in research and in clinical care, it is essential to understand differences and similarities between dynamic and steady-state CA. The present study found no correlation between dynamic and steady-state CA indices in healthy older adults. There was variability between individuals in all (steady-state and dynamic) autoregulatory indices, ranging from low (almost absent) to highly efficient CA in this healthy population. These findings challenge the assumption that assessment of a single CA parameter or a single set of parameters can be generalized to overall CA functioning. Therefore, depending on specific research purposes, the choice for either steady-state or dynamic measures or both should be weighed carefully. The present study aimed to investigate the relationship between dynamic (dCA) and steady-state cerebral autoregulation (sCA). In 28 healthy older adults, sCA was quantified by a linear regression slope of proportionate (%) changes in cerebrovascular resistance (CVR) in response to proportionate (%) changes in mean blood pressure (BP) induced by stepwise sodium nitroprusside (SNP) and phenylephrine (PhE) infusion. Cerebral blood flow (CBF) was measured at the internal carotid artery (ICA) and vertebral artery (VA) and CBF velocity at the middle cerebral artery (MCA). With CVR = BP/CBF, Slope-CVR ICA , Slope-CVR VA and Slope-CVRi MCA were derived. dCA was assessed (i) in supine rest, analysed with transfer function analysis (gain and phase) and autoregulatory index (ARI) fit from spontaneous oscillations (ARI Baseline ), and (ii) with transient changes in BP using a bolus injection of SNP (ARI SNP ) and PhE (ARI PhE ). Comparison of sCA and dCA parameters (using Pearson's r for continuous and Spearman's ρ for ordinal parameters) demonstrated a lack of linear correlations between sCA and dCA measures. However, comparisons of parameters within dCA and within sCA were correlated. For sCA slope-CVR VA with Slope-CVRi MCA (r = 0.45, P < 0.03); for dCA ARI SNP with ARI PhE (ρ = 0.50, P = 0.03), ARI Baseline (ρ = 0.57, P = 0.03) and Phase LF (ρ = 0.48, P = 0.03); and for Gain VLF with Gain LF (r = 0.51, P = 0.01). By contrast to the commonly held assumption based on an earlier study, there were no linear correlations between sCA and dCA. As an additional observation, there was strong inter-individual variability, both in dCA and sCA, in this healthy group of elderly, in a range from low to high CA efficiency. © 2017 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Physiological Society.

Software sensors for bioprocesses.

PubMed

Bogaerts, Ph; Vande Wouwer, A

2003-10-01

State estimation is a significant problem in biotechnological processes, due to the general lack of hardware sensor measurements of the variables describing the process dynamics. The objective of this paper is to review a number of software sensor design methods, including extended Kalman filters, receding-horizon observers, asymptotic observers, and hybrid observers, which can be efficiently applied to bioprocesses. These several methods are illustrated with simulation and real-life case studies.

Climate-driven changes in forest succession and the influence of management on forest carbon dynamics in the Puget Lowlands of Washington State, USA

Treesearch

Danelle M. Laflower; Matthew D. Hurteau; George W. Koch; Malcolm P. North; Bruce A. Hungate

2016-01-01

Projecting the response of forests to changing climate requires understanding how biotic and abiotic controls on tree growth will change over time. As temperature and interannual precipitation variability increase, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species-specific responses to changing climate. Management actions that alter composition...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krasheninnikov, S. I.

The equations of motion of a dust grain with non-spherical shape in plasma are generalized by incorporating the effects associated with propeller-like features of the grain's shape. For the grain shape close to rotationally symmetric, the stability of “stationary” (in terms of variables used in the grain dynamic equations) solutions are considered. It is found that propeller-like features of the grain's shape can crucially alter stability of such “stationary” states.

Coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes controlling variability of nitrogen species in streamflow during autumn in an upland forest

Treesearch

Stephen D. Sebestyen; James B. Shanley; Elizabeth W. Boyer; Carol Kendall; Daniel H. Doctor

2014-01-01

Autumn is a season of dynamic change in forest streams of the northeastern United States due to effects of leaf fall on both hydrology and biogeochemistry. Few studies have explored how interactions of biogeochemical transformations, various nitrogen sources, and catchment flow paths affect stream nitrogen variation during autumn. To provide more information on this...

Regional Community Climate Simulations with variable resolution meshes in the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarzycki, C. M.; Gettelman, A.; Callaghan, P.

2017-12-01

Accurately predicting weather extremes such as precipitation (floods and droughts) and temperature (heat waves) requires high resolution to resolve mesoscale dynamics and topography at horizontal scales of 10-30km. Simulating such resolutions globally for climate scales (years to decades) remains computationally impractical. Simulating only a small region of the planet is more tractable at these scales for climate applications. This work describes global simulations using variable-resolution static meshes with multiple dynamical cores that target the continental United States using developmental versions of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). CESM2 is tested in idealized, aquaplanet and full physics configurations to evaluate variable mesh simulations against uniform high and uniform low resolution simulations at resolutions down to 15km. Different physical parameterization suites are also evaluated to gauge their sensitivity to resolution. Idealized variable-resolution mesh cases compare well to high resolution tests. More recent versions of the atmospheric physics, including cloud schemes for CESM2, are more stable with respect to changes in horizontal resolution. Most of the sensitivity is due to sensitivity to timestep and interactions between deep convection and large scale condensation, expected from the closure methods. The resulting full physics model produces a comparable climate to the global low resolution mesh and similar high frequency statistics in the high resolution region. Some biases are reduced (orographic precipitation in the western United States), but biases do not necessarily go away at high resolution (e.g. summertime JJA surface Temp). The simulations are able to reproduce uniform high resolution results, making them an effective tool for regional climate studies and are available in CESM2.