Identifying pneumonia outbreaks of public health importance: can emergency department data assist in earlier identification?

PubMed

Hope, Kirsty; Durrheim, David N; Muscatello, David; Merritt, Tony; Zheng, Wei; Massey, Peter; Cashman, Patrick; Eastwood, Keith

2008-08-01

To retrospectively review the performance of a near real-time Emergency Department (ED) Syndromic Surveillance System operating in New South Wales for identifying pneumonia outbreaks of public health importance. Retrospective data was obtained from the NSW Emergency Department data collection for a rural hospital that has experienced a cluster of pneumonia diagnoses among teenage males in August 2006. ED standard reports were examined for signals in the overall count for each respiratory syndrome, and for elevated counts in individual subgroups including; age, sex and admission to hospital status. Using the current thresholds, the ED syndromic surveillance system would have trigged a signal for pneumonia syndrome in children aged 5-16 years four days earlier than the notification by a paediatrician and this signal was maintained for 14 days. If the ED syndromic surveillance system had been operating it could have identified the outbreak earlier than the paediatrician's notification. This may have permitted an earlier public health response. By understanding the behaviour of syndromes during outbreaks of public health importance, response protocols could be developed to facilitate earlier implementation of control measures.

Filarial parasites develop faster and reproduce earlier in response to host immune effectors that determine filarial life expectancy.

PubMed

Babayan, Simon A; Read, Andrew F; Lawrence, Rachel A; Bain, Odile; Allen, Judith E

2010-10-19

Humans and other mammals mount vigorous immune assaults against helminth parasites, yet there are intriguing reports that the immune response can enhance rather than impair parasite development. It has been hypothesized that helminths, like many free-living organisms, should optimize their development and reproduction in response to cues predicting future life expectancy. However, immune-dependent development by helminth parasites has so far eluded such evolutionary explanation. By manipulating various arms of the immune response of experimental hosts, we show that filarial nematodes, the parasites responsible for debilitating diseases in humans like river blindness and elephantiasis, accelerate their development in response to the IL-5 driven eosinophilia they encounter when infecting a host. Consequently they produce microfilariae, their transmission stages, earlier and in greater numbers. Eosinophilia is a primary host determinant of filarial life expectancy, operating both at larval and at late adult stages in anatomically and temporally separate locations, and is implicated in vaccine-mediated protection. Filarial nematodes are therefore able to adjust their reproductive schedules in response to an environmental predictor of their probability of survival, as proposed by evolutionary theory, thereby mitigating the effects of the immune attack to which helminths are most susceptible. Enhancing protective immunity against filarial nematodes, for example through vaccination, may be less effective at reducing transmission than would be expected and may, at worst, lead to increased transmission and, hence, pathology.

Facilitating earlier transfer of care from acute stroke services into the community.

PubMed

Robinson, Jennifer

This article outlines an initiative to reduce length of stay for stroke patients within an acute hospital and to facilitate earlier transfer of care. Existing care provision was remodelled and expanded to deliver stroke care to patients within a community bed-based intermediate care facility or intermediate care at home. This new model of care has improved the delivery of rehabilitation through alternative and innovative ways of addressing service delivery that meet the needs of the patients.

Reanalysis of the occurrence of back pain among construction workers: modelling for the interdependent effects of heavy physical work, earlier back accidents, and aging.

PubMed

Nurminen, M

1997-11-01

To re-examine the relation between heavy physical work and the occurrence of sciatic pain among construction workers reported previously to be absent in an epidemiological study. METHODS-Poisson log linear regression was used to model for the frequency of sciatic pain among concrete reinforcement workers and maintenance house painters with adjustment for the interactive effects of earlier back accidents and aging that modified the relation. Concrete reinforcement work not only had a direct effect on the frequency of sciatic pain, but it also contributed significantly to the risk indirectly through earlier back accidents. The risk of sciatic pain increased from age 25 to 54 in a different manner for a worker depending on his occupational group and record of back accidents. Epidemiological studies on low back pain need to be analysed with sound methodology. This is important in view of future meta-analyses that will be performed for the purpose of providing guidelines on the prevention of back disorders in heavy physical work.

Reducing Older Driver Motor Vehicle Collisions via Earlier Cataract Surgery

PubMed Central

Mennemeyer, Stephen T.; Owsley, Cynthia; McGwin, Gerald

2013-01-01

Older adults who undergo cataract extraction have roughly half the rate of motor vehicle collision (MVC) involvement per mile driven compared to cataract patients who do not elect cataract surgery. Currently in the U.S., most insurers do not allow payment for cataract surgery based upon the findings of a vision exam unless accompanied by an individual’s complaint of visual difficulties that seriously interfere with driving or other daily activities and individuals themselves may be slow or reluctant to complain and seek relief. As a consequence, surgery tends to occur after significant vision problems have emerged. We hypothesize that a proactive policy encouraging cataract surgery earlier for a lesser level of complaint would significantly reduce MVCs among older drivers. We used a Monte Carlo model to simulate the MVC experience of the U.S. population from age 60 to 89 under alternative protocols for the timing of cataract surgery which we call “Current Practice” (CP) and “Earlier Surgery” (ES). Our base model finds, from a societal perspective with undiscounted 2010 dollars, that switching to ES from CP reduces by about 21% the average number of MVCs, fatalities, and MVC cost per person. The net effect on total cost – all MVC costs plus cataract surgery expenditures -- is a reduction of about 16%. Quality Adjusted Life Years would increase by about 5%. From the perspective of payers for healthcare, the switch would increase cataract surgery expenditure for ages 65+ by about 8% and for ages 60 to 64 by about 47% but these expenditures are substantially offset after age 65 by reductions in the medical and emergency services component of MVC cost. Similar results occur with discounting at 3% and with various sensitivity analyses. We conclude that a policy of ES would significantly reduce MVCs and their associated consequences. PMID:23369786

Economic Costs Avoided by Diagnosing Melanoma Six Months Earlier Justify >100 Benign Biopsies.

PubMed

Aires, Daniel J; Wick, Jo; Shaath, Tarek S; Rajpara, Anand N; Patel, Vikas; Badawi, Ahmed H; Li, Cicy; Fraga, Garth R; Doolittle, Gary; Liu, Deede Y

2016-05-01

New melanoma drugs bring enormous benefits but do so at significant costs. Because melanoma grows deeper and deadlier over time, deeper lesions are costlier due to increased sentinel lymph node biopsy, chemotherapy, and disease-associated income loss. Prior studies have justified pigmented lesion biopsies on a "value per life" basis; by contrast we sought to assess how many biopsies are justified per melanoma found on a purely economic basis. We modeled how melanomas in the United States would behave if diagnosis were delayed by 6 months, eg, not biopsied, only observed until the next surveillance visit. Economic loss from delayed biopsy is the obverse of economic benefit of performing biopsy earlier. Growth rates were based on Liu et al. The results of this study can be applied to all patients presenting to dermatologists with pigmented skin lesions suspicious for melanoma. In-situ melanomas were excluded because no studies to date have modeled growth rates analogous to those for invasive melanoma. We assume conservatively that all melanomas not biopsied initially will be biopsied and treated 6 months later. Major modeled costs are (1) increased sentinel lymph node biopsy, (2) increased chemotherapy for metastatic lesions using increased 5-yr death as metastasis marker, and (3) income loss per melanoma death at $413,370 as previously published. Costs avoided by diagnosing melanoma earlier justify 170 biopsies per melanoma found. Efforts to penalize "unnecessary" biopsies may be economically counterproductive.

J Drugs Dermatol. 2016;15(5):527-532.

Earlier initialization of highly active antiretroviral therapy is associated with long-term survival and is cost-effective: findings from a deterministic model of a 10-year Ugandan cohort.

PubMed

Mills, Fergal P; Ford, Nathan; Nachega, Jean B; Bansback, Nicholas; Nosyk, Bohdan; Yaya, Sanni; Mills, Edward J

2012-11-01

Raising the guidelines for the initiation of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings at CD4 T-cell counts of 350 cells per microliter raises concerns about feasibility and cost. We examined costs of this shift using data from Uganda for almost 10 years. We projected total costs of earlier initiation with combined antiretroviral therapy, including inpatient and outpatient services, antiretroviral treatment and treatment for limited HIV-related opportunistic diseases, and benefits expressed in years-of-life-saved over 5- and 30-year time horizons using a deterministic economic model to examine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), expressed in cost per year-of-life-saved (YLS). The model generated ICERs for 5- and 30-year time horizons. Discounting both costs and benefits at 3% annually, for the 5-year analysis, the ICER was $695/YLS and $769 in the 30-year analysis. The results were most sensitive to program cost and the discount rate applied, but they were less sensitive to opportunistic infection treatment costs or the relative-risk reduction from earlier initiation. Program costs varied from 25% to 125%, and the ICER for the lower bound decreased to $491/YLS at 5-years and $574/YLS at 30 years. For the upper bound, the ICER increased to $899 for 5-years and $964 at 30-years. The budget impact of adoption, assuming the same level of program penetration in the community, is $261,651,942 for 5 years and $872,685,561 for 30 years. Our model showed that earlier initiation of combined antiretroviral therapy in Uganda is associated with improved long-term survival and is highly cost-effective, as defined by WHO-CHOICE.

Research promises earlier warning for grapevine canker diseases

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

When it comes to detecting and treating vineyards for grapevine canker diseases (also called trunk diseases), like Botryosphaeria dieback (Bot canker), Esca, Eutypa dieback and Phomopsis dieback, the earlier the better, says plant pathologist Kendra Baumgartner, with the USDA’s Agricultural Research...

The associations of earlier trauma exposures and history of mental disorders with PTSD after subsequent traumas

PubMed Central

Kessler, Ronald C.; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio; Alonso, Jordi; Bromet, Evelyn J.; Gureje, Oye; Karam, Elie G.; Koenen, Karestan C.; Lee, Sing; Liu, Howard; Pennell, Beth-Ellen; Petukhova, Maria V.; Sampson, Nancy A.; Shahly, Victoria L.; Stein, Dan J.; Atwoli, Lukoye; Borges, Guilherme; Bunting, Brendan; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Gluzman, Semyon; Haro, Josep Maria; Hinkov, Hristo; Kawakami, Norito; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Posada-Villa, Jose; Scott, Kate M.; Shalev, Arieh Y.; Have, Margreet ten; Torres, Yolanda; Viana, Maria Carmen; Zaslavsky, Alan M.

2017-01-01

Although earlier trauma exposure is known to predict post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after subsequent traumas, it is unclear if this association is limited to cases where the earlier trauma led to PTSD. Resolution of this uncertainty has important implications for research on pre-trauma vulnerability to PTSD. We examined this issue in the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys with 34,676 respondents who reported lifetime trauma exposure. One lifetime trauma was selected randomly for each respondent. DSM-IV PTSD due to that trauma was assessed. We reported in a previous paper that four earlier traumas involving interpersonal violence significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas (OR=1.3–2.5). We also assessed 14 lifetime DSM-IV mood, anxiety, disruptive behavior, and substance disorders prior to random traumas. We show in the current report that only prior anxiety disorders significantly predicted PTSD in a multivariate model (OR=1.5–4.3) and that these disorders interacted significantly with three of the earlier traumas (witnessing atrocities, physical violence victimization, rape). History of witnessing atrocities significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas only among respondents with prior PTSD (OR=5.6). Histories of physical violence victimization (OR=1.5) and rape after age 17 (OR=17.6) significantly predicted only among respondents with no history of prior anxiety disorders. Although only preliminary due to reliance on retrospective reports, these results suggest that history of anxiety disorders and history of a limited number of earlier traumas might usefully be targeted in future prospective studies as distinct foci of research on individual differences in vulnerability to PTSD after subsequent traumas. PMID:28924183

Travelling for earlier surgical treatment: the patient's view.

PubMed Central

Stewart, M; Donaldson, L J

1991-01-01

As part of the northern region's programme within the national waiting list initiative, schemes have been funded to test the feasibility and acceptability of offering patients the opportunity to travel further afield in order to receive earlier treatment. A total of 484 patients experiencing a long wait for routine surgical operations in the northern region were offered the opportunity to receive earlier treatment outside their local health district; 74% of the patients accepted the offer. The initiative was well received by the participating patients and the majority stated that if the need arose on a future occasion they would prefer to travel for treatment rather than have to wait for lengthy periods for treatment at their local hospital. These findings, interpreted in the light of the National Health Service reforms introduced in April 1991, suggest that for some types of care, patients would welcome greater flexibility in the placing of contracts, not merely reinforcement of historical patterns of referral. PMID:1823553

An earlier age of breast cancer diagnosis related to more frequent use of antiperspirants/deodorants and underarm shaving.

PubMed

McGrath, K G

2003-12-01

Breast cancer incidence suggests a lifestyle cause. A lifestyle factor used near the breast is the application of antiperspirants/deodorants accompanied by axillary shaving. A previous study did not support a link with breast cancer. If these habits have a role in breast cancer development, women using antiperspirants/deodorants and shaving their underarms frequently would be expected to have an earlier age of diagnosis than those doing so less often. An earlier age of diagnosis would also be expected in those starting to use deodorants and shaving at an earlier age. This is the first study to investigate the intensity of underarm exposure in a cohort of breast cancer survivors. Four hundred and thirty-seven females diagnosed with breast cancer were surveyed. Once grouped by their frequency of underarm hygiene habits, the mean age of diagnosis was the primary end point. Secondary end points included the overall frequency of these habits, and potential usage group confounding variables were evaluated. All statistical tests were two-sided. Frequency and earlier onset of antiperspirant/deodorant usage with underarm shaving were associated with an earlier age of breast cancer diagnosis. Combined habits are likely for this earlier age of diagnosis. In conclusion, underarm shaving with antiperspirant/deodorant use may play a role in breast cancer. It is not clear which of these components are involved. Reviewed literature insinuates absorption of aluminium salts facilitated by dermal barrier disruption. Case-controlled investigations are needed before alternative underarm hygiene habits are suggested.

Asymmetrical booster ascent guidance and control system design study. Volume 2: SSFS math models - Ascent. [space shuttle development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, F. E.; Lemon, R. S.

1974-01-01

The engineering equations and mathematical models developed for use in the space shuttle functional simulator (SSFS) are presented, and include extensive revisions and additions to earlier documentation. Definitions of coordinate systems used by the SSFS models and coordinate tranformations are given, along with documentation of the flexible body mathematical models. The models were incorporated in the SSFS and are in the checkout stage.

Prescription stimulant use is associated with earlier onset of psychosis.

PubMed

Moran, Lauren V; Masters, Grace A; Pingali, Samira; Cohen, Bruce M; Liebson, Elizabeth; Rajarethinam, R P; Ongur, Dost

2015-12-01

A childhood history of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is common in psychotic disorders, yet prescription stimulants may interact adversely with the physiology of these disorders. Specifically, exposure to stimulants leads to long-term increases in dopamine release. We therefore hypothesized that individuals with psychotic disorders previously exposed to prescription stimulants will have an earlier onset of psychosis. Age of onset of psychosis (AOP) was compared in individuals with and without prior exposure to prescription stimulants while controlling for potential confounding factors. In a sample of 205 patients recruited from an inpatient psychiatric unit, 40% (n = 82) reported use of stimulants prior to the onset of psychosis. Most participants were prescribed stimulants during childhood or adolescence for a diagnosis of ADHD. AOP was significantly earlier in those exposed to stimulants (20.5 vs. 24.6 years stimulants vs. no stimulants, p < 0.001). After controlling for gender, IQ, educational attainment, lifetime history of a cannabis use disorder or other drugs of abuse, and family history of a first-degree relative with psychosis, the association between stimulant exposure and earlier AOP remained significant. There was a significant gender × stimulant interaction with a greater reduction in AOP for females, whereas the smaller effect of stimulant use on AOP in males did not reach statistical significance. In conclusion, individuals with psychotic disorders exposed to prescription stimulants had an earlier onset of psychosis, and this relationship did not appear to be mediated by IQ or cannabis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of models and software for liquidus temperatures of glasses of HWVP products. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hrma, P.R.; Vienna, J.D.; Pelton, A.D.

In an earlier report [92 Pel] was described the development of software and thermodynamic databases for the calculation of liquidus temperatures of glasses of HWVP products containing the components SiO{sub 2}-B{sub 2}O{sub 3}-Na{sub 2}O-Li{sub 2}O-CaO-MgO-Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}-ZrO{sub 2}-{open_quotes}others{close_quotes}. The software package developed at that time consisted of the EQUILIB program of the F*A*C*T computer system with special input/output routines. Since then, Battelle has purchased the entire F*A*C*T computer system, and this fully replaces the earlier package. Furthermore, with the entire F*A*C*T system, additional calculations can be performed such as calculations at fixed O{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} etc. pressures,more » or graphing of output. Furthermore, the public F*A*C*T database of over 5000 gaseous species and condensed phases is now accessible. The private databases for the glass and crystalline phases were developed for Battelle by optimization of thermodynamic and phase diagram data. That is, all available data for 2- and 3-component sub-systems of the 9-component oxide system were collected, and parameters of model equations for the thermodynamic properties were found which best reproduce all the data. For representing the thermodynamic properties of the glass as a function of composition and temperature, the modified quasichemical model was used. This model was described in the earlier report [92 Pel] along with all the optimizations. With the model, it was possible to predict the thermodynamic properties of the 9-component glass, and thereby to calculate liquidus temperatures. Liquidus temperatures measured by Battelle for 123 CVS glass compositions were used to test the model and to refine the model by the addition of further parameters.« less

The associations of earlier trauma exposures and history of mental disorders with PTSD after subsequent traumas.

PubMed

Kessler, R C; Aguilar-Gaxiola, S; Alonso, J; Bromet, E J; Gureje, O; Karam, E G; Koenen, K C; Lee, S; Liu, H; Pennell, B-E; Petukhova, M V; Sampson, N A; Shahly, V; Stein, D J; Atwoli, L; Borges, G; Bunting, B; de Girolamo, G; Gluzman, S F; Haro, J M; Hinkov, H; Kawakami, N; Kovess-Masfety, V; Navarro-Mateu, F; Posada-Villa, J; Scott, K M; Shalev, A Y; Ten Have, M; Torres, Y; Viana, M C; Zaslavsky, A M

2017-09-19

Although earlier trauma exposure is known to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after subsequent traumas, it is unclear whether this association is limited to cases where the earlier trauma led to PTSD. Resolution of this uncertainty has important implications for research on pretrauma vulnerability to PTSD. We examined this issue in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys with 34 676 respondents who reported lifetime trauma exposure. One lifetime trauma was selected randomly for each respondent. DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition) PTSD due to that trauma was assessed. We reported in a previous paper that four earlier traumas involving interpersonal violence significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas (odds ratio (OR)=1.3-2.5). We also assessed 14 lifetime DSM-IV mood, anxiety, disruptive behavior and substance disorders before random traumas. We show in the current report that only prior anxiety disorders significantly predicted PTSD in a multivariate model (OR=1.5-4.3) and that these disorders interacted significantly with three of the earlier traumas (witnessing atrocities, physical violence victimization and rape). History of witnessing atrocities significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas only among respondents with prior PTSD (OR=5.6). Histories of physical violence victimization (OR=1.5) and rape after age 17 years (OR=17.6) significantly predicted only among respondents with no history of prior anxiety disorders. Although only preliminary due to reliance on retrospective reports, these results suggest that history of anxiety disorders and history of a limited number of earlier traumas might usefully be targeted in future prospective studies as distinct foci of research on individual differences in vulnerability to PTSD after subsequent traumas.Molecular Psychiatry advance online publication, 19 September 2017; doi:10.1038/mp.2017.194.

A hybrid discrete-continuum mathematical model of pattern prediction in the developing retinal vasculature.

PubMed

McDougall, S R; Watson, M G; Devlin, A H; Mitchell, C A; Chaplain, M A J

2012-10-01

Pathological angiogenesis has been extensively explored by the mathematical modelling community over the past few decades, specifically in the contexts of tumour-induced vascularisation and wound healing. However, there have been relatively few attempts to model angiogenesis associated with normal development, despite the availability of animal models with experimentally accessible and highly ordered vascular topologies: for example, growth and development of the vascular plexus layers in the murine retina. The current study aims to address this issue through the development of a hybrid discrete-continuum mathematical model of the developing retinal vasculature in neonatal mice that is closely coupled with an ongoing experimental programme. The model of the functional vasculature is informed by a range of morphological and molecular data obtained over a period of several days, from 6 days prior to birth to approximately 8 days after birth. The spatio-temporal formation of the superficial retinal vascular plexus (RVP) in wild-type mice occurs in a well-defined sequence. Prior to birth, astrocytes migrate from the optic nerve over the surface of the inner retina in response to a chemotactic gradient of PDGF-A, formed at an earlier stage by migrating retinal ganglion cells (RGCs). Astrocytes express a variety of chemotactic and haptotactic proteins, including VEGF and fibronectin (respectively), which subsequently induce endothelial cell sprouting and modulate growth of the RVP. The developing RVP is not an inert structure; however, the vascular bed adapts and remodels in response to a wide variety of metabolic and biomolecular stimuli. The main focus of this investigation is to understand how these interacting cellular, molecular, and metabolic cues regulate RVP growth and formation. In an earlier one-dimensional continuum model of astrocyte and endothelial migration, we showed that the measured frontal velocities of the two cell types could be accurately reproduced

Do emotional support and classroom organization earlier in the year set the stage for higher quality instruction?

PubMed

Curby, Timothy W; Rimm-Kaufman, Sara E; Abry, Tashia

2013-10-01

Many teachers believe that providing greater emotional and organizational supports in the beginning of the year strengthens their ability to teach effectively as the year progresses. Some interventions, such as the Responsive Classroom (RC) approach, explicitly embed this sequence into professional development efforts. We tested the hypothesis that earlier emotional and organizational supports set the stage for improved instruction later in the year in a sample of third- and fourth-grade teachers enrolled in a randomized controlled trial of the RC approach. Further, we examined the extent to which the model generalized for teachers using varying levels of RC practices as well as whether or not teachers were in the intervention or control groups. Teachers' emotional, organizational, and instructional interactions were observed using the Classroom Assessment Scoring System (Pianta, La Paro, & Hamre, 2008) on five occasions throughout the year. Results indicated a reciprocal relation between emotional and instructional supports. Specifically, higher levels of emotional support earlier in the year predicted higher instructional support later in the year. Also, higher levels of instructional support earlier in the year predicted higher emotional support later in the year. Classroom organization was not found to have longitudinal associations with the other domains across a year. This pattern was robust when controlling for the use of RC practices as well as across intervention and control groups. Further, teachers' use of RC practices predicted higher emotional support and classroom organization throughout the year, suggesting the malleability of this teacher characteristic. Discussion highlights the connection between teachers' emotional and instructional supports and how the use of RC practices improves teachers' emotionally supportive interactions with students. Copyright © 2013 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights

Biological consequences of earlier snowmelt from desert dust deposition in alpine landscapes.

PubMed

Steltzer, Heidi; Landry, Chris; Painter, Thomas H; Anderson, Justin; Ayres, Edward

2009-07-14

Dust deposition to mountain snow cover, which has increased since the late 19(th) century, accelerates the rate of snowmelt by increasing the solar radiation absorbed by the snowpack. Snowmelt occurs earlier, but is decoupled from seasonal warming. Climate warming advances the timing of snowmelt and early season phenological events (e.g., the onset of greening and flowering); however, earlier snowmelt without warmer temperatures may have a different effect on phenology. Here, we report the results of a set of snowmelt manipulations in which radiation-absorbing fabric and the addition and removal of dust from the surface of the snowpack advanced or delayed snowmelt in the alpine tundra. These changes in the timing of snowmelt were superimposed on a system where the timing of snowmelt varies with topography and has been affected by increased dust loading. At the community level, phenology exhibited a threshold response to the timing of snowmelt. Greening and flowering were delayed before seasonal warming, after which there was a linear relationship between the date of snowmelt and the timing of phenological events. Consequently, the effects of earlier snowmelt on phenology differed in relation to topography, which resulted in increasing synchronicity in phenology across the alpine landscape with increasingly earlier snowmelt. The consequences of earlier snowmelt from increased dust deposition differ from climate warming and include delayed phenology, leading to synchronized growth and flowering across the landscape and the opportunity for altered species interactions, landscape-scale gene flow via pollination, and nutrient cycling.

Empirical corroboration of an earlier theoretical resolution to the UV paradox of insect polarized skylight orientation.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Gao, Jun; Fan, Zhiguo

2014-02-01

It is surprising that many insect species use only the ultraviolet (UV) component of the polarized skylight for orientation and navigation purposes, while both the intensity and the degree of polarization of light from the clear sky are lower in the UV than at longer (blue, green, red) wavelengths. Why have these insects chosen the UV part of the polarized skylight? This strange phenomenon is called the "UV-sky-pol paradox". Although earlier several speculations tried to resolve this paradox, they did this without any quantitative data. A theoretical and computational model has convincingly explained why it is advantageous for certain animals to detect celestial polarization in the UV. We performed a sky-polarimetric approach and built a polarized skylight sensor that models the processing of polarization signals by insect photoreceptors. Using this model sensor, we carried out measurements under clear and cloudy sky conditions. Our results showed that light from the cloudy sky has maximal degree of polarization in the UV. Furthermore, under both clear and cloudy skies the angle of polarization of skylight can be detected with a higher accuracy. By this, we corroborated empirically the soundness of the earlier computational resolution of the UV-sky-pol paradox.

Empirical corroboration of an earlier theoretical resolution to the UV paradox of insect polarized skylight orientation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xin; Gao, Jun; Fan, Zhiguo

2014-02-01

It is surprising that many insect species use only the ultraviolet (UV) component of the polarized skylight for orientation and navigation purposes, while both the intensity and the degree of polarization of light from the clear sky are lower in the UV than at longer (blue, green, red) wavelengths. Why have these insects chosen the UV part of the polarized skylight? This strange phenomenon is called the "UV-sky-pol paradox". Although earlier several speculations tried to resolve this paradox, they did this without any quantitative data. A theoretical and computational model has convincingly explained why it is advantageous for certain animals to detect celestial polarization in the UV. We performed a sky-polarimetric approach and built a polarized skylight sensor that models the processing of polarization signals by insect photoreceptors. Using this model sensor, we carried out measurements under clear and cloudy sky conditions. Our results showed that light from the cloudy sky has maximal degree of polarization in the UV. Furthermore, under both clear and cloudy skies the angle of polarization of skylight can be detected with a higher accuracy. By this, we corroborated empirically the soundness of the earlier computational resolution of the UV-sky-pol paradox.

Quantifying the economic value and quality of life impact of earlier influenza vaccination.

PubMed

Lee, Bruce Y; Bartsch, Sarah M; Brown, Shawn T; Cooley, Philip; Wheaton, William D; Zimmerman, Richard K

2015-03-01

Influenza vaccination is administered throughout the influenza disease season, even as late as March. Given such timing, what is the value of vaccinating the population earlier than currently being practiced? We used real data on when individuals were vaccinated in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, and the following 2 models to determine the value of vaccinating individuals earlier (by the end of September, October, and November): Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED), an agent-based model (ABM), and FluEcon, our influenza economic model that translates cases from the ABM to outcomes and costs [health care and lost productivity costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)]. We varied the reproductive number (R0) from 1.2 to 1.6. Applying the current timing of vaccinations averted 223,761 influenza cases, $16.3 million in direct health care costs, $50.0 million in productivity losses, and 804 in QALYs, compared with no vaccination (February peak, R0 1.2). When the population does not have preexisting immunity and the influenza season peaks in February (R0 1.2-1.6), moving individuals who currently received the vaccine after September to the end of September could avert an additional 9634-17,794 influenza cases, $0.6-$1.4 million in direct costs, $2.1-$4.0 million in productivity losses, and 35-64 QALYs. Moving the vaccination of just children to September (R0 1.2-1.6) averted 11,366-1660 influenza cases, $0.6-$0.03 million in direct costs, $2.3-$0.2 million in productivity losses, and 42-8 QALYs. Moving the season peak to December increased these benefits, whereas increasing preexisting immunity reduced these benefits. Even though many people are vaccinated well after September/October, they likely are still vaccinated early enough to provide substantial cost-savings.

Recent gestational diabetes was associated with mothers stopping predominant breastfeeding earlier in a multi-ethnic population.

PubMed

Baerug, Anne; Sletner, Line; Laake, Petter; Fretheim, Atle; Løland, Beate Fossum; Waage, Christin W; Birkeland, Kåre I; Jenum, Anne Karen

2018-06-01

It has previously been shown that breastfeeding may reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes in mothers with recent gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). This study compared the cessation of predominant breastfeeding in mothers with and without recent GDM in a multi-ethnic population. From May 2008 to May 2010, healthy pregnant women attending antenatal care provided by community health services in Eastern Oslo, Norway were recruited. We included 616 women-58% non-Western-and interviewed and examined them at a mean of 15 and 28 weeks of gestation and 14 weeks' postpartum. Cox regression models examined the association between GDM, as assessed by the 2013 World Health Organization criteria, and breastfeeding cessation. Overall, 190 of the 616 (31%) mothers had GDM and they ended predominant breastfeeding earlier than mothers without GDM, with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 1.33 and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of 1.01-1.77. Mothers of South Asian origin ended predominant breastfeeding earlier than Western European mothers in the adjusted analysis (aHR 1.53, 95% CI: 1.04-2.25), but Middle Eastern mothers did not. Recent gestational diabetes was associated with earlier cessation of predominant breastfeeding in Western European and non-Western women. ©2018 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Earlier Parental Set Bedtimes as a Protective Factor Against Depression and Suicidal Ideation

PubMed Central

Gangwisch, James E.; Babiss, Lindsay A.; Malaspina, Dolores; Turner, J. Blake; Zammit, Gary K.; Posner, Kelly

2010-01-01

Study Objectives: To examine the relationships between parental set bedtimes, sleep duration, and depression as a quasi-experiment to explore the potentially bidirectional relationship between short sleep duration and depression. Short sleep duration has been shown to precede depression, but this could be explained as a prodromal symptom of depression. Depression in an adolescent can affect his/her chosen bedtime, but it is less likely to affect a parent's chosen set bedtime which can establish a relatively stable upper limit that can directly affect sleep duration. Design: Multivariate cross-sectional analyses of the ADD Health using logistic regression. Setting: United States nationally representative, school-based, probability-based sample in 1994-96. Participants: Adolescents (n = 15,659) in grades 7 to 12. Measurements and Results: Adolescents with parental set bedtimes of midnight or later were 24% more likely to suffer from depression (OR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.04-1.49) and 20% more likely to have suicidal ideation (1.20, 1.01-1.41) than adolescents with parental set bedtimes of 10:00 PM or earlier, after controlling for covariates. Consistent with sleep duration and perception of getting enough sleep acting as mediators, the inclusion of these variables in the multivariate models appreciably attenuated the associations for depression (1.07, 0.88-1.30) and suicidal ideation (1.09, 0.92-1.29). Conclusions: The results from this study provide new evidence to strengthen the argument that short sleep duration could play a role in the etiology of depression. Earlier parental set bedtimes could therefore be protective against adolescent depression and suicidal ideation by lengthening sleep duration. Citation: Gangwisch JE; Babiss LA; Malaspina D; Turner JB; Zammit GK; Posner K. Earlier parental set bedtimes as a protective factor against depression and suicidal ideation. SLEEP 2010;33(1):97-106. PMID:20120626

Daily Use, Especially of High-Potency Cannabis, Drives the Earlier Onset of Psychosis in Cannabis Users

PubMed Central

Di Forti, Marta; Sallis, Hannah; Allegri, Fabio; Trotta, Antonella; Ferraro, Laura; Stilo, Simona A.; Marconi, Arianna; La Cascia, Caterina; Reis Marques, Tiago; Pariante, Carmine; Dazzan, Paola; Mondelli, Valeria; Paparelli, Alessandra; Kolliakou, Anna; Prata, Diana; Gaughran, Fiona; David, Anthony S.; Morgan, Craig; Stahl, Daniel; Khondoker, Mizanur; MacCabe, James H.; Murray, Robin M.

2014-01-01

Cannabis use is associated with an earlier age of onset of psychosis (AOP). However, the reasons for this remain debated. Methods: We applied a Cox proportional hazards model to 410 first-episode psychosis patients to investigate the association between gender, patterns of cannabis use, and AOP. Results: Patients with a history of cannabis use presented with their first episode of psychosis at a younger age (mean years = 28.2, SD = 8.0; median years = 27.1) than those who never used cannabis (mean years = 31.4, SD = 9.9; median years = 30.0; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.16–1.74; P < .001). This association remained significant after controlling for gender (HR = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.11–1.68; P < .001). Those who had started cannabis at age 15 or younger had an earlier onset of psychosis (mean years = 27.0, SD = 6.2; median years = 26.9) than those who had started after 15 years (mean years = 29.1, SD = 8.5; median years = 27.8; HR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.06–1.84; P = .050). Importantly, subjects who had been using high-potency cannabis (skunk-type) every day had the earliest onset (mean years = 25.2, SD = 6.3; median years = 24.6) compared to never users among all the groups tested (HR = 1.99; 95% CI: 1.50- 2.65; P < .0001); these daily users of high-potency cannabis had an onset an average of 6 years earlier than that of non-cannabis users. Conclusions: Daily use, especially of high-potency cannabis, drives the earlier onset of psychosis in cannabis users. PMID:24345517

Does Speech Emerge from Earlier Appearing Oral Motor Behaviors?.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Christopher A.; Ruark, Jacki L.

1996-01-01

This study of the oral motor behaviors of seven toddlers (age 15 months) may be interpreted to indicate that: (1) mandibular coordination follows a developmental continuum from earlier emerging behaviors, such as chewing and sucking, through babbling, to speech, or (2) unique task demands give rise to distinct mandibular coordinative constraints…

Antiretroviral treatment-based cost saving interventions may offset expenses for new patients and earlier treatment start.

PubMed

Angeletti, C; Pezzotti, P; Antinori, A; Mammone, A; Navarra, A; Orchi, N; Lorenzini, P; Mecozzi, A; Ammassari, A; Murachelli, S; Ippolito, G; Girardi, E

2014-03-01

Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has become the main driver of total costs of caring for persons living with HIV (PLHIV). The present study estimated the short/medium-term cost trends in response to the recent evolution of national guidelines and regional therapeutic protocols for cART in Italy. We developed a deterministic mathematical model that was calibrated using epidemic data for Lazio, a region located in central Italy with about six million inhabitants. In the Base Case Scenario, the estimated number of PLHIV in the Lazio region increased over the period 2012-2016 from 14 414 to 17 179. Over the same period, the average projected annual cost for treating the HIV-infected population was €147.0 million. An earlier cART initiation resulted in a rise of 2.3% in the average estimated annual cost, whereas an increase from 27% to 50% in the proportion of naïve subjects starting cART with a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen resulted in a reduction of 0.3%. Simplification strategies based on NNRTIs co-formulated in a single tablet regimen and protease inhibitor/ritonavir-boosted monotherapy produced an overall reduction in average annual costs of 1.5%. A further average saving of 3.3% resulted from the introduction of generic antiretroviral drugs. In the medium term, cost saving interventions could finance the increase in costs resulting from the inertial growth in the number of patients requiring treatment and from the earlier treatment initiation recommended in recent guidelines. © 2013 British HIV Association.

Trends of earlier palliative care consultation in advanced cancer patients receiving palliative radiation therapy.

PubMed

Chang, Sanders; Sigel, Keith; Goldstein, Nathan E; Wisnivesky, Juan; Dharmarajan, Kavita V

2018-06-06

The American Society of Clinical Oncology recommends that all patients with metastatic disease receive dedicated palliative care (PC) services early in their illness, ideally via interdisciplinary care teams. We investigated the time trends of specialty palliative care consultations from the date of metastatic cancer diagnosis among patients receiving palliative radiation therapy (PRT). A shorter time interval between metastatic diagnosis and first PC consultation suggests earlier involvement of palliative care in a patient's life with metastatic cancer. In this IRB-approved retrospective analysis, patients treated with PRT for solid tumors (bone and brain) at a single tertiary care hospital between 2010 and 2016 were included. Cohorts were arbitrarily established by metastatic diagnosis within approximately two-year intervals: (1) 1/1/2010-3/27/2012; (2) 3/28/2012-5/21/2014; and (3) 5/22/2014-12/31/2016. Cox-proportional hazards regression modelling was used to compare trends of PC consultation among cohorts. Of 284 patients identified, 184 patients received PC consultation, whereas 15 patients died before receiving a PC consult. Median follow-up time until an event or censor was 257 days (range: 1,900). Patients in the most recent cohort had a shorter median time to first PC consult (57 days) compared to those in the first (374 days) and second (186 days) cohorts. On multivariable analysis, patients in the third cohort were more likely to undergo a PC consultation earlier in their metastatic illness (HR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.2,2.8). Over a six-year period, palliative care consultation occurred earlier for metastatic patients treated with PRT at our institution. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Earlier time to aerobic exercise is associated with faster recovery following acute sport concussion.

PubMed

Lawrence, David Wyndham; Richards, Doug; Comper, Paul; Hutchison, Michael G

2018-01-01

To determine whether earlier time to initiation of aerobic exercise following acute concussion is associated with time to full return to (1) sport and (2) school or work. A retrospective stratified propensity score survival analysis of acute (≤14 days) concussion was used to determine whether time (days) to initiation of aerobic exercise post-concussion was associated with, both, time (days) to full return to (1) sport and (2) school or work. A total of 253 acute concussions [median (IQR) age, 17.0 (15.0-20.0) years; 148 (58.5%) males] were included in this study. Multivariate Cox regression models identified that earlier time to aerobic exercise was associated with faster return to sport and school/work adjusting for other covariates, including quintile propensity strata. For each successive day in delay to initiation of aerobic exercise, individuals had a less favourable recovery trajectory. Initiating aerobic exercise at 3 and 7 days following injury was associated with a respective 36.5% (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.53-0.76) and 73.2% (HR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.16-0.45) reduced probability of faster full return to sport compared to within 1 day; and a respective 45.9% (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.44-0.66) and 83.1% (HR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.10-0.30) reduced probability of faster full return to school/work. Additionally, concussion history, symptom severity, LOC deleteriously influenced concussion recovery. Earlier initiation of aerobic exercise was associated with faster full return to sport and school or work. This study provides greater insight into the benefits and safety of aerobic exercise within the first week of the injury.

Numerical modeling of surface wave development under the action of wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalikov, Dmitry

2018-06-01

The numerical modeling of two-dimensional surface wave development under the action of wind is performed. The model is based on three-dimensional equations of potential motion with a free surface written in a surface-following nonorthogonal curvilinear coordinate system in which depth is counted from a moving surface. A three-dimensional Poisson equation for the velocity potential is solved iteratively. A Fourier transform method, a second-order accuracy approximation of vertical derivatives on a stretched vertical grid and fourth-order Runge-Kutta time stepping are used. Both the input energy to waves and dissipation of wave energy are calculated on the basis of earlier developed and validated algorithms. A one-processor version of the model for PC allows us to simulate an evolution of the wave field with thousands of degrees of freedom over thousands of wave periods. A long-time evolution of a two-dimensional wave structure is illustrated by the spectra of wave surface and the input and output of energy.

Later endogenous circadian temperature nadir relative to an earlier wake time in older people

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, J. F.; Dijk, D. J.; Klerman, E. B.; Czeisler, C. A.

1998-01-01

The contribution of the circadian timing system to the age-related advance of sleep-wake timing was investigated in two experiments. In a constant routine protocol, we found that the average wake time and endogenous circadian phase of 44 older subjects were earlier than that of 101 young men. However, the earlier circadian phase of the older subjects actually occurred later relative to their habitual wake time than it did in young men. These results indicate that an age-related advance of circadian phase cannot fully account for the high prevalence of early morning awakening in healthy older people. In a second study, 13 older subjects and 10 young men were scheduled to a 28-h day, such that they were scheduled to sleep at many circadian phases. Self-reported awakening from scheduled sleep episodes and cognitive throughput during the second half of the wake episode varied markedly as a function of circadian phase in both groups. The rising phase of both rhythms was advanced in the older subjects, suggesting an age-related change in the circadian regulation of sleep-wake propensity. We hypothesize that under entrained conditions, these age-related changes in the relationship between circadian phase and wake time are likely associated with self-selected light exposure at an earlier circadian phase. This earlier exposure to light could account for the earlier clock hour to which the endogenous circadian pacemaker is entrained in older people and thereby further increase their propensity to awaken at an even earlier time.

Daily use, especially of high-potency cannabis, drives the earlier onset of psychosis in cannabis users.

PubMed

Di Forti, Marta; Sallis, Hannah; Allegri, Fabio; Trotta, Antonella; Ferraro, Laura; Stilo, Simona A; Marconi, Arianna; La Cascia, Caterina; Reis Marques, Tiago; Pariante, Carmine; Dazzan, Paola; Mondelli, Valeria; Paparelli, Alessandra; Kolliakou, Anna; Prata, Diana; Gaughran, Fiona; David, Anthony S; Morgan, Craig; Stahl, Daniel; Khondoker, Mizanur; MacCabe, James H; Murray, Robin M

2014-11-01

Cannabis use is associated with an earlier age of onset of psychosis (AOP). However, the reasons for this remain debated. We applied a Cox proportional hazards model to 410 first-episode psychosis patients to investigate the association between gender, patterns of cannabis use, and AOP. Patients with a history of cannabis use presented with their first episode of psychosis at a younger age (mean years = 28.2, SD = 8.0; median years = 27.1) than those who never used cannabis (mean years = 31.4, SD = 9.9; median years = 30.0; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.16-1.74; P < .001). This association remained significant after controlling for gender (HR = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.11-1.68; P < .001). Those who had started cannabis at age 15 or younger had an earlier onset of psychosis (mean years = 27.0, SD = 6.2; median years = 26.9) than those who had started after 15 years (mean years = 29.1, SD = 8.5; median years = 27.8; HR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.06-1.84; P = .050). Importantly, subjects who had been using high-potency cannabis (skunk-type) every day had the earliest onset (mean years = 25.2, SD = 6.3; median years = 24.6) compared to never users among all the groups tested (HR = 1.99; 95% CI: 1.50- 2.65; P < .0001); these daily users of high-potency cannabis had an onset an average of 6 years earlier than that of non-cannabis users. Daily use, especially of high-potency cannabis, drives the earlier onset of psychosis in cannabis users. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Selection of children to provide care: the effect of earlier parental transfers.

PubMed

Henretta, J C; Hill, M S; Li, W; Soldo, B J; Wolf, D A

1997-05-01

We use the first wave of data from the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) study to examine the effects of past parent-to-child financial transfers on selection of a child to provide assistance with basic personal care for unmarried parents. We estimate a fixed-effects conditional logit model and find a positive and significant association between past financial transfers and a child's current helping behavior. The coefficient of past financial transfers is in the direction hypothesized, and its magnitude is 80% as large as that of gender, a well-documented powerful predictor of parental caregiving. There appears to be substantial evidence that earlier parent-to-child financial gifts play a role in determining which child in the family will provide assistance.

Perceptual sensitivity to spectral properties of earlier sounds during speech categorization.

PubMed

Stilp, Christian E; Assgari, Ashley A

2018-02-28

Speech perception is heavily influenced by surrounding sounds. When spectral properties differ between earlier (context) and later (target) sounds, this can produce spectral contrast effects (SCEs) that bias perception of later sounds. For example, when context sounds have more energy in low-F 1 frequency regions, listeners report more high-F 1 responses to a target vowel, and vice versa. SCEs have been reported using various approaches for a wide range of stimuli, but most often, large spectral peaks were added to the context to bias speech categorization. This obscures the lower limit of perceptual sensitivity to spectral properties of earlier sounds, i.e., when SCEs begin to bias speech categorization. Listeners categorized vowels (/ɪ/-/ɛ/, Experiment 1) or consonants (/d/-/g/, Experiment 2) following a context sentence with little spectral amplification (+1 to +4 dB) in frequency regions known to produce SCEs. In both experiments, +3 and +4 dB amplification in key frequency regions of the context produced SCEs, but lesser amplification was insufficient to bias performance. This establishes a lower limit of perceptual sensitivity where spectral differences across sounds can bias subsequent speech categorization. These results are consistent with proposed adaptation-based mechanisms that potentially underlie SCEs in auditory perception. Recent sounds can change what speech sounds we hear later. This can occur when the average frequency composition of earlier sounds differs from that of later sounds, biasing how they are perceived. These "spectral contrast effects" are widely observed when sounds' frequency compositions differ substantially. We reveal the lower limit of these effects, as +3 dB amplification of key frequency regions in earlier sounds was enough to bias categorization of the following vowel or consonant sound. Speech categorization being biased by very small spectral differences across sounds suggests that spectral contrast effects occur

Smoking is associated with earlier time to revision of total knee arthroplasty.

PubMed

Lim, Chin Tat; Goodman, Stuart B; Huddleston, James I; Harris, Alex H S; Bhowmick, Subhrojyoti; Maloney, William J; Amanatullah, Derek F

2017-10-01

Smoking is associated with early postoperative complications, increased length of hospital stay, and an increased risk of revision after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). However, the effect of smoking on time to revision TKA is unknown. A total of 619 primary TKAs referred to an academic tertiary center for revision TKA were retrospectively stratified according to the patient smoking status. Smoking status was then analyzed for associations with time to revision TKA using a Chi square test. The association was also analyzed according to the indication for revision TKA. Smokers (37/41, 90%) have an increased risk of earlier revision for any reason compared to non-smokers (274/357, 77%, p=0.031). Smokers (37/41, 90%) have an increased risk of earlier revision for any reason compared to ex-smokers (168/221, 76%, p=0.028). Subgroup analysis did not reveal a difference in indication for revision TKA (p>0.05). Smokers are at increased risk of earlier revision TKA when compared to non-smokers and ex-smokers. The risk for ex-smokers was similar to that of non-smokers. Smoking appears to have an all-or-none effect on earlier revision TKA as patients who smoked more did not have higher risk of early revision TKA. These results highlight the need for clinicians to urge patients not to begin smoking and encourage smokers to quit smoking prior to primary TKA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the Economic Value and Quality of Life Impact of Earlier Influenza Vaccination

PubMed Central

Lee, Bruce Y.; Bartsch, Sarah M.; Brown, Shawn T.; Cooley, Philip; Wheaton, William D.; Zimmerman, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Background Influenza vaccination is administered throughout the influenza disease season, even as late as March. Given such timing, what is the value of vaccinating the population earlier than currently being practiced? Methods We used real data on when individuals were vaccinated in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, and the following 2 models to determine the value of vaccinating individuals earlier (by the end of September, October, and November): Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED), an agent-based model (ABM), and FluEcon, our influenza economic model that translates cases from the ABM to outcomes and costs [health care and lost productivity costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)]. We varied the reproductive number (R0) from 1.2 to 1.6. Results Applying the current timing of vaccinations averted 223,761 influenza cases, $16.3 million in direct health care costs, $50.0 million in productivity losses, and 804 in QALYs, compared with no vaccination (February peak, R0 1.2). When the population does not have preexisting immunity and the influenza season peaks in February (R0 1.2–1.6), moving individuals who currently received the vaccine after September to the end of September could avert an additional 9634–17,794 influenza cases, $0.6–$1.4 million in direct costs, $2.1–$4.0 million in productivity losses, and 35–64 QALYs. Moving the vaccination of just children to September (R0 1.2–1.6) averted 11,366–1660 influenza cases, $0.6–$0.03 million in direct costs, $2.3–$0.2 million in productivity losses, and 42–8 QALYs. Moving the season peak to December increased these benefits, whereas increasing preexisting immunity reduced these benefits. Conclusion Even though many people are vaccinated well after September/October, they likely are still vaccinated early enough to provide substantial cost-savings. PMID:25590676

Floodplains within reservoirs promote earlier spawning of white crappies Pomoxis annularis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miranda, Leandro E.; Dagel, Jonah D.; Kaczka, Levi J.; Mower, Ethan; Wigen, S. L.

2015-01-01

Reservoirs impounded over floodplain rivers are unique because they may include within their upper reaches extensive shallow water stored over preexistent floodplains. Because of their relatively flat topography and riverine origin, floodplains in the upper reaches of reservoirs provide broad expanses of vegetation within a narrow range of reservoir water levels. Elsewhere in the reservoir, topography creates a band of shallow water along the contour of the reservoir where vegetation often does not grow. Thus, as water levels rise, floodplains may be the first vegetated habitats inundated within the reservoir. We hypothesized that shallow water in reservoir floodplains would attract spawning white crappies Pomoxis annularis earlier than reservoir embayments. Crappie relative abundance over five years in floodplains and embayments of four reservoirs increased as spawning season approached, peaked, and decreased as fish exited shallow water. Relative abundance peaked earlier in floodplains than embayments, and the difference was magnified with higher water levels. Early access to suitable spawning habitat promotes earlier spawning and may increase population fitness. Recognition of the importance of reservoir floodplains, an understanding of how reservoir water levels can be managed to provide timely connectivity to floodplains, and conservation of reservoir floodplains may be focal points of environmental management in reservoirs.

View northeast, wharf A, portion AA, details showing earlier piers ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

View northeast, wharf A, portion AA, details showing earlier piers and braces sloping toward water, reused charred plates for existing decking - U.S. Coast Guard Sandy Hook Station, Western Docking Structure, West of intersection of Canfield Road & Hartshorne Drive, Highlands, Monmouth County, NJ

Earlier time to aerobic exercise is associated with faster recovery following acute sport concussion

PubMed Central

Richards, Doug; Comper, Paul; Hutchison, Michael G.

2018-01-01

Objective To determine whether earlier time to initiation of aerobic exercise following acute concussion is associated with time to full return to (1) sport and (2) school or work. Methods A retrospective stratified propensity score survival analysis of acute (≤14 days) concussion was used to determine whether time (days) to initiation of aerobic exercise post-concussion was associated with, both, time (days) to full return to (1) sport and (2) school or work. Results A total of 253 acute concussions [median (IQR) age, 17.0 (15.0–20.0) years; 148 (58.5%) males] were included in this study. Multivariate Cox regression models identified that earlier time to aerobic exercise was associated with faster return to sport and school/work adjusting for other covariates, including quintile propensity strata. For each successive day in delay to initiation of aerobic exercise, individuals had a less favourable recovery trajectory. Initiating aerobic exercise at 3 and 7 days following injury was associated with a respective 36.5% (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.53–0.76) and 73.2% (HR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.16–0.45) reduced probability of faster full return to sport compared to within 1 day; and a respective 45.9% (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.44–0.66) and 83.1% (HR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.10–0.30) reduced probability of faster full return to school/work. Additionally, concussion history, symptom severity, LOC deleteriously influenced concussion recovery. Conclusion Earlier initiation of aerobic exercise was associated with faster full return to sport and school or work. This study provides greater insight into the benefits and safety of aerobic exercise within the first week of the injury. PMID:29668716

Higher Childhood Red Meat Intake Frequency Is Associated with Earlier Age at Menarche.

PubMed

Jansen, Erica C; Marín, Constanza; Mora-Plazas, Mercedes; Villamor, Eduardo

2016-03-09

Early age at menarche is associated with increased breast cancer risk. Red meat consumption in adolescence predicts breast cancer risk, but it is unknown whether it is also related to earlier menarche. We studied the association between intake of red meat at ages 5-12 y and age at menarche in a prospective study. We assessed usual diets with a food-frequency questionnaire in a group of 456 girls aged 8.4 ± 1.7 y and followed them for a median 5.6 y in Bogotá, Colombia. Girls were asked periodically about the occurrence and date of menarche. Median age at menarche was estimated with use of Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities by categories of red meat intake frequency. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the incidence of menarche by red meat intake frequency, adjusting for potential sociodemographic and dietary confounders including total energy intake and intake frequency of other animal food groups (dairy, poultry, freshwater fish, tuna/sardines, eggs, and innards). Median age at menarche was 12.4 y. After adjustment for total energy intake, maternal parity, and socioeconomic status, red meat intake frequency was inversely associated with age at menarche. When compared with girls with red meat intake <4 times/wk, those consuming it ≥2 times/d had a significantly earlier age at menarche (HR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.11, 2.41; P-trend = 0.0009). Incidentally, we found that girls with tuna/sardine intake >1 time/wk had a significantly later age at menarche (HR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.42, 0.90; P = 0.01) than those with intake <1 time/mo. Intake frequency of other animal food groups was not significantly associated with age at menarche. Higher red meat intake frequency during childhood is associated with an earlier age at menarche, whereas greater fatty fish intake frequency is associated with a later menarcheal age. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Drug development costs when financial risk is measured using the Fama-French three-factor model.

PubMed

Vernon, John A; Golec, Joseph H; Dimasi, Joseph A

2010-08-01

In a widely cited article, DiMasi, Hansen, and Grabowski (2003) estimate the average pre-tax cost of bringing a new molecular entity to market. Their base case estimate, excluding post-marketing studies, was $802 million (in $US 2000). Strikingly, almost half of this cost (or $399 million) is the cost of capital (COC) used to fund clinical development expenses to the point of FDA marketing approval. The authors used an 11% real COC computed using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). But the CAPM is a single factor risk model, and multi-factor risk models are the current state of the art in finance. Using the Fama-French three factor model we find that the cost of drug development to be higher than the earlier estimate. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Development and translational imaging of a TP53 porcine tumorigenesis model

PubMed Central

Sieren, Jessica C.; Meyerholz, David K.; Wang, Xiao-Jun; Davis, Bryan T.; Newell, John D.; Hammond, Emily; Rohret, Judy A.; Rohret, Frank A.; Struzynski, Jason T.; Goeken, J. Adam; Naumann, Paul W.; Leidinger, Mariah R.; Taghiyev, Agshin; Van Rheeden, Richard; Hagen, Jussara; Darbro, Benjamin W.; Quelle, Dawn E.; Rogers, Christopher S.

2014-01-01

Cancer is the second deadliest disease in the United States, necessitating improvements in tumor diagnosis and treatment. Current model systems of cancer are informative, but translating promising imaging approaches and therapies to clinical practice has been challenging. In particular, the lack of a large-animal model that accurately mimics human cancer has been a major barrier to the development of effective diagnostic tools along with surgical and therapeutic interventions. Here, we developed a genetically modified porcine model of cancer in which animals express a mutation in TP53 (which encodes p53) that is orthologous to one commonly found in humans (R175H in people, R167H in pigs). TP53R167H/R167H mutant pigs primarily developed lymphomas and osteogenic tumors, recapitulating the tumor types observed in mice and humans expressing orthologous TP53 mutant alleles. CT and MRI imaging data effectively detected developing tumors, which were validated by histopathological evaluation after necropsy. Molecular genetic analyses confirmed that these animals expressed the R167H mutant p53, and evaluation of tumors revealed characteristic chromosomal instability. Together, these results demonstrated that TP53R167H/R167H pigs represent a large-animal tumor model that replicates the human condition. Our data further suggest that this model will be uniquely suited for developing clinically relevant, noninvasive imaging approaches to facilitate earlier detection, diagnosis, and treatment of human cancers. PMID:25105366

Comprehensive methods for earlier detection and monitoring of forest decline

Treesearch

Jennifer Pontius; Richard Hallett

2014-01-01

Forested ecosystems are threatened by invasive pests, pathogens, and unusual climatic events brought about by climate change. Earlier detection of incipient forest health problems and a quantitatively rigorous assessment method is increasingly important. Here, we describe a method that is adaptable across tree species and stress agents and practical for use in the...

Earlier Violent Television Exposure and Later Drug Dependence

PubMed Central

Brook, David W.; Katten, Naomi S.; Ning, Yuming; Brook, Judith S.

2013-01-01

This research examined the longitudinal pathways from earlier violent television exposure to later drug dependence. African American and Puerto Rican adolescents were interviewed during three points in time (N = 463). Violent television exposure in late adolescence predicted violent television exposure in young adulthood, which in turn was related to tobacco/marijuana use, nicotine dependence, and later drug dependence. Some policy and clinical implications suggest: a) regulating the times when violent television is broadcast; b) creating developmentally targeted prevention/treatment programs; and c) recognizing that watching violent television may serve as a cue regarding increased susceptibility to nicotine and drug dependence. PMID:18612881

Trend of earlier spring in central Europe continued

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ungersböck, Markus; Jurkovic, Anita; Koch, Elisabeth; Lipa, Wolfgang; Scheifinger, Helfried; Zach-Hermann, Susanne

2013-04-01

Modern phenology is the study of the timing of recurring biological events in the animal and plant world, the causes of their timing with regard to biotic and abiotic forces, and the interrelation among phases of the same or different species. The relationship between phenology and climate explains the importance of plant phenology for Climate Change studies. Plants require light, water, oxygen mineral nutrients and suitable temperature to grow. In temperate zones the seasonal life cycle of plants is primarily controlled by temperature and day length. Higher spring air temperatures are resulting in an earlier onset of the phenological spring in temperate and cool climate. On the other hand changes in phenology due to climate change do have impact on the climate system itself. Vegetation is a dynamic factor in the earth - climate system and has positive and negative feedback mechanisms to the biogeochemical and biogeophysical fluxes to the atmosphere Since the mid of the 1980s spring springs earlier in Europe and autumn is shifting back to the end of the year resulting in a longer vegetation period. The advancement of spring can be clearly attributed to temperature increase in the months prior to leaf unfolding and flowering, the timing of autumn is more complex and cannot easily be attributed to one or some few parameters. To demonstrate that the observed advancement of spring since the mid of 1980s is pro-longed in 2001 to 2010 and the delay of fall and the lengthening of the growing season is confirmed in the last decade we picked out several indicator plants from the PEP725 database www.pep725.eu. The PEP725 database collects data from different European network operators and thus offers a unique compilation of phenological observations; the database is regularly updated. The data follow the same classification scheme, the so called BBCH coding system so they can be compared. Lilac Syringa vulgaris, birch Betula pendula, beech Fagus and horse chestnut Aesculus

Planning steps forward in development: in girls earlier than in boys.

PubMed

Unterrainer, Josef M; Ruh, Nina; Loosli, Sandra V; Heinze, Katharina; Rahm, Benjamin; Kaller, Christoph P

2013-01-01

The development of planning ability in children initially aged four and five was examined longitudinally with a retest-interval of 12 months using the Tower of London task. As expected, problems to solve straightforward without mental look-ahead were mastered by most, even the youngest children. Problems demanding look-ahead were more difficult and accuracy improved significantly with age and over time. This development was strongly moderated by sex: In contrast to coeval boys, four year old girls showed an impressive performance enhancement at age five, reaching the performance of six year olds, whereas four year old boys lagged behind and caught up with girls at the age of six, the typical age of school enrollment. This sex-specific development of planning was clearly separated from overall intelligence: young boys showed a steeper increase in raw intelligence scores than girls, whereas in the older groups scores developed similarly. The observed sex differences in planning development are evident even within a narrow time window of twelve months and may relate to differences in maturational trajectories for girls and boys in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex.

A New Model for the Integration of Science and Mathematics: The Balance Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kiray, S. Ahmet

2012-01-01

The aim of this study is to develop an integrated scientific and mathematical model that is suited to the background of Turkish teachers. The dimensions of the model are given and compared to the models which have been previously developed and the findings of earlier studies on the topic. The model is called the balance, reflecting the…

Earlier occurrence and increased explanatory power of climate for the first incidence of potato late blight caused by Phytophthora infestans in Fennoscandia.

PubMed

Lehsten, Veiko; Wiik, Lars; Hannukkala, Asko; Andreasson, Erik; Chen, Deliang; Ou, Tinghai; Liljeroth, Erland; Lankinen, Åsa; Grenville-Briggs, Laura

2017-01-01

Late blight (caused by Phytophthora infestans) is a devastating potato disease that has been found to occur earlier in the season over the last decades in Fennoscandia. Up until now the reasons for this change have not been investigated. Possible explanations for this change are climate alterations, changes in potato production or changes in pathogen biology, such as increased fitness or changes in gene flow within P. infestans populations. The first incidence of late blight is of high economic importance since fungicidal applications should be typically applied two weeks before the first signs of late blight and are repeated on average once a week. We use field observations of first incidence of late blight in experimental potato fields from five sites in Sweden and Finland covering a total of 30 years and investigate whether the earlier incidence of late blight can be related to the climate. We linked the field data to meteorological data and found that the previous assumption, used in common late blight models, that the disease only develops at relative humidity levels above 90% had to be rejected. Rather than the typically assumed threshold relationship between late blight disease development and relative humidity we found a linear relationship. Our model furthermore showed two distinct responses of late blight to climate. At the beginning of the observation time (in Sweden until the early 90s and in Finland until the 2000s) the link between climate and first incidence was very weak. However, for the remainder of the time period the link was highly significant, indicating a change in the biological properties of the pathogen which could for example be a change in the dominating reproduction mode or a physiological change in the response of the pathogen to climate. The study shows that models used in decision support systems need to be checked and re-parametrized regularly to be able to capture changes in pathogen biology. While this study was performed with

Development, Evaluation, and Application of a Primary Aerosol Model.

PubMed

Wang, I T; Chico, T; Huang, Y H; Farber, R J

1999-09-01

The Segmented-Plume Primary Aerosol Model (SPPAM) has been developed over the past several years. The earlier model development goals were simply to generalize the widely used Industrial Source Complex Short-Term (ISCST) model to simulate plume transport and dispersion under light wind conditions and to handle a large number of roadway or line sources. The goals have been expanded to include development of improved algorithm for effective plume transport velocity, more accurate and efficient line and area source dispersion algorithms, and recently, a more realistic and computationally efficient algorithm for plume depletion due to particle dry deposition. A performance evaluation of the SPPAM has been carried out using the 1983 PNL dual tracer experimental data. The results show the model predictions to be in good agreement with observations in both plume advection-dispersion and particulate matter (PM) depletion by dry deposition. For PM 2.5 impact analysis, the SPPAM has been applied to the Rubidoux area of California. Emission sources included in the modeling analysis are: paved road dust, diesel vehicular exhaust, gasoline vehicular exhaust, and tire wear particles from a large number of roadways in Rubidoux and surrounding areas. For the selected modeling periods, the predicted primary PM 2.5 to primary PM10 concentration ratios for the Rubidoux sampling station are in the range of 0.39-0.46. The organic fractions of the primary PM 2.5 impacts are estimated to be at least 34-41%. Detailed modeling results indicate that the relatively high organic fractions are primarily due to the proximity of heavily traveled roadways north of the sampling station. The predictions are influenced by a number of factors; principal among them are the receptor locations relative to major roadways, the volume and composition of traffic on these roadways, and the prevailing meteorological conditions.

Earlier vegetation green-up has reduced spring dust storms

PubMed Central

Fan, Bihang; Guo, Li; Li, Ning; Chen, Jin; Lin, Henry; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Shen, Miaogen; Rao, Yuhan; Wang, Cong; Ma, Lei

2014-01-01

The observed decline of spring dust storms in Northeast Asia since the 1950s has been attributed to surface wind stilling. However, spring vegetation growth could also restrain dust storms through accumulating aboveground biomass and increasing surface roughness. To investigate the impacts of vegetation spring growth on dust storms, we examine the relationships between recorded spring dust storm outbreaks and satellite-derived vegetation green-up date in Inner Mongolia, Northern China from 1982 to 2008. We find a significant dampening effect of advanced vegetation growth on spring dust storms (r = 0.49, p = 0.01), with a one-day earlier green-up date corresponding to a decrease in annual spring dust storm outbreaks by 3%. Moreover, the higher correlation (r = 0.55, p < 0.01) between green-up date and dust storm outbreak ratio (the ratio of dust storm outbreaks to times of strong wind events) indicates that such effect is independent of changes in surface wind. Spatially, a negative correlation is detected between areas with advanced green-up dates and regional annual spring dust storms (r = −0.49, p = 0.01). This new insight is valuable for understanding dust storms dynamics under the changing climate. Our findings suggest that dust storms in Inner Mongolia will be further mitigated by the projected earlier vegetation green-up in the warming world. PMID:25343265

Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, I.T.; Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.

2005-01-01

The highly variable timing of streamflow in snowmelt-dominated basins across western North America is an important consequence, and indicator, of climate fluctuations. Changes in the timing of snowmelt-derived streamflow from 1948 to 2002 were investigated in a network of 302 western North America gauges by examining the center of mass for flow, spring pulse onset dates, and seasonal fractional flows through trend and principal component analyses. Statistical analysis of the streamflow timing measures with Pacific climate indicators identified local and key large-scale processes that govern the regionally coherent parts of the changes and their relative importance. Widespread and regionally coherent trends toward earlier onsets of springtime snowmelt and streamflow have taken place across most of western North America, affecting an area that is much larger than previously recognized. These timing changes have resulted in increasing fractions of annual flow occurring earlier in the water year by 1-4 weeks. The immediate (or proximal) forcings for the spatially coherent parts of the year-to-year fluctuations and longer-term trends of streamflow timing have been higher winter and spring temperatures. Although these temperature changes are partly controlled by the decadal-scale Pacific climate mode [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)], a separate and significant part of the variance is associated with a springtime warming trend that spans the PDO phases. ?? 2005 American Meteorological Society.

Earlier vegetation green-up has reduced spring dust storms.

PubMed

Fan, Bihang; Guo, Li; Li, Ning; Chen, Jin; Lin, Henry; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Shen, Miaogen; Rao, Yuhan; Wang, Cong; Ma, Lei

2014-10-24

The observed decline of spring dust storms in Northeast Asia since the 1950s has been attributed to surface wind stilling. However, spring vegetation growth could also restrain dust storms through accumulating aboveground biomass and increasing surface roughness. To investigate the impacts of vegetation spring growth on dust storms, we examine the relationships between recorded spring dust storm outbreaks and satellite-derived vegetation green-up date in Inner Mongolia, Northern China from 1982 to 2008. We find a significant dampening effect of advanced vegetation growth on spring dust storms (r = 0.49, p = 0.01), with a one-day earlier green-up date corresponding to a decrease in annual spring dust storm outbreaks by 3%. Moreover, the higher correlation (r = 0.55, p < 0.01) between green-up date and dust storm outbreak ratio (the ratio of dust storm outbreaks to times of strong wind events) indicates that such effect is independent of changes in surface wind. Spatially, a negative correlation is detected between areas with advanced green-up dates and regional annual spring dust storms (r = -0.49, p = 0.01). This new insight is valuable for understanding dust storms dynamics under the changing climate. Our findings suggest that dust storms in Inner Mongolia will be further mitigated by the projected earlier vegetation green-up in the warming world.

Earlier tachycardia onset in right than left mesial temporal lobe seizures.

PubMed

Kato, Kazuhiro; Jin, Kazutaka; Itabashi, Hisashi; Iwasaki, Masaki; Kakisaka, Yosuke; Aoki, Masashi; Nakasato, Nobukazu

2014-10-07

To clarify whether the presence and timing of peri-ictal heart rate (HR) change is a seizure lateralizing sign in patients with mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (mTLE). Long-term video EEGs were retrospectively reviewed in 21 patients, 7 men and 14 women aged 13 to 67 years, diagnosed as mTLE with MRI lesions in the mesial temporal structures (hippocampal sclerosis in 20 cases, amygdala hypertrophy in 1 case). Seventy-seven partial seizures without secondary generalization were extracted. Peri-ictal HR change was compared between 29 right seizures (9 patients) and 48 left seizures (12 patients). HR abruptly increased in all 29 right seizures and 42 of 48 left seizures. Onset time of HR increase in relation to ictal EEG onset was significantly earlier in right seizures than in left seizures (mean ± SD, -11.5 ± 14.8 vs 9.2 ± 21.7 seconds; p < 0.0001). Time of maximum HR was also significantly earlier in right seizures than in left seizures (36.0 ± 18.1 vs 58.0 ± 28.7 seconds; p < 0.0001). Maximum HR changes from baseline showed no significant difference between right and left seizures (47.5 ± 19.1 vs 40.8 ± 20.0/min). Significantly earlier tachycardia in right than left mTLE seizures supports previous hypotheses that the right cerebral hemisphere is dominant in the sympathetic network. No HR change, or delayed tachycardia possibly due to seizure propagation to the right hemisphere, may be a useful lateralizing sign of left mTLE seizures. © 2014 American Academy of Neurology.

Earlier parental set bedtimes as a protective factor against depression and suicidal ideation.

PubMed

Gangwisch, James E; Babiss, Lindsay A; Malaspina, Dolores; Turner, J Blake; Zammit, Gary K; Posner, Kelly

2010-01-01

To examine the relationships between parental set bedtimes, sleep duration, and depression as a quasi-experiment to explore the potentially bidirectional relationship between short sleep duration and depression. Short sleep duration has been shown to precede depression, but this could be explained as a prodromal symptom of depression. Depression in an adolescent can affect his/her chosen bedtime, but it is less likely to affect a parent's chosen set bedtime which can establish a relatively stable upper limit that can directly affect sleep duration. Multivariate cross-sectional analyses of the ADD Health using logistic regression. United States nationally representative, school-based, probability-based sample in 1994-96. Adolescents (n = 15,659) in grades 7 to 12. Adolescents with parental set bedtimes of midnight or later were 24% more likely to suffer from depression (OR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.04-1.49) and 20% more likely to have suicidal ideation (1.20, 1.01-1.41) than adolescents with parental set bedtimes of 10:00 PM or earlier, after controlling for covariates. Consistent with sleep duration and perception of getting enough sleep acting as mediators, the inclusion of these variables in the multivariate models appreciably attenuated the associations for depression (1.07, 0.88-1.30) and suicidal ideation (1.09, 0.92-1.29). The results from this study provide new evidence to strengthen the argument that short sleep duration could play a role in the etiology of depression. Earlier parental set bedtimes could therefore be protective against adolescent depression and suicidal ideation by lengthening sleep duration.

Combined circulating tumor DNA and protein biomarker-based liquid biopsy for the earlier detection of pancreatic cancers.

PubMed

Cohen, Joshua D; Javed, Ammar A; Thoburn, Christopher; Wong, Fay; Tie, Jeanne; Gibbs, Peter; Schmidt, C Max; Yip-Schneider, Michele T; Allen, Peter J; Schattner, Mark; Brand, Randall E; Singhi, Aatur D; Petersen, Gloria M; Hong, Seung-Mo; Kim, Song Cheol; Falconi, Massimo; Doglioni, Claudio; Weiss, Matthew J; Ahuja, Nita; He, Jin; Makary, Martin A; Maitra, Anirban; Hanash, Samir M; Dal Molin, Marco; Wang, Yuxuan; Li, Lu; Ptak, Janine; Dobbyn, Lisa; Schaefer, Joy; Silliman, Natalie; Popoli, Maria; Goggins, Michael G; Hruban, Ralph H; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Klein, Alison P; Tomasetti, Cristian; Papadopoulos, Nickolas; Kinzler, Kenneth W; Vogelstein, Bert; Lennon, Anne Marie

2017-09-19

The earlier diagnosis of cancer is one of the keys to reducing cancer deaths in the future. Here we describe our efforts to develop a noninvasive blood test for the detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. We combined blood tests for KRAS gene mutations with carefully thresholded protein biomarkers to determine whether the combination of these markers was superior to any single marker. The cohort tested included 221 patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas and 182 control patients without known cancer. KRAS mutations were detected in the plasma of 66 patients (30%), and every mutation found in the plasma was identical to that subsequently found in the patient's primary tumor (100% concordance). The use of KRAS in conjunction with four thresholded protein biomarkers increased the sensitivity to 64%. Only one of the 182 plasma samples from the control cohort was positive for any of the DNA or protein biomarkers (99.5% specificity). This combinatorial approach may prove useful for the earlier detection of many cancer types.

To achieve an earlier IFN-γ response is not sufficient to control Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in mice.

PubMed

Vilaplana, Cristina; Prats, Clara; Marzo, Elena; Barril, Carles; Vegué, Marina; Diaz, Jorge; Valls, Joaquim; López, Daniel; Cardona, Pere-Joan

2014-01-01

The temporo-spatial relationship between the three organs (lung, spleen and lymph node) involved during the initial stages of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection has been poorly studied. As such, we performed an experimental study to evaluate the bacillary load in each organ after aerosol or intravenous infection and developed a mathematical approach using the data obtained in order to extract conclusions. The results showed that higher bacillary doses result in an earlier IFN-γ response, that a certain bacillary load (BL) needs to be reached to trigger the IFN-γ response, and that control of the BL is not immediate after onset of the IFN-γ response, which might be a consequence of the spatial dimension. This study may have an important impact when it comes to designing new vaccine candidates as it suggests that triggering an earlier IFN-γ response might not guarantee good infection control, and therefore that additional properties should be considered for these candidates.

To Achieve an Earlier IFN-γ Response Is Not Sufficient to Control Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in Mice

PubMed Central

Marzo, Elena; Barril, Carles; Vegué, Marina; Diaz, Jorge; Valls, Joaquim; López, Daniel; Cardona, Pere-Joan

2014-01-01

The temporo-spatial relationship between the three organs (lung, spleen and lymph node) involved during the initial stages of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection has been poorly studied. As such, we performed an experimental study to evaluate the bacillary load in each organ after aerosol or intravenous infection and developed a mathematical approach using the data obtained in order to extract conclusions. The results showed that higher bacillary doses result in an earlier IFN-γ response, that a certain bacillary load (BL) needs to be reached to trigger the IFN-γ response, and that control of the BL is not immediate after onset of the IFN-γ response, which might be a consequence of the spatial dimension. This study may have an important impact when it comes to designing new vaccine candidates as it suggests that triggering an earlier IFN-γ response might not guarantee good infection control, and therefore that additional properties should be considered for these candidates. PMID:24959669

NEW DEVELOPMENT IN DISPERSION EXPERIMENTS AND MODELS FOR THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER

EPA Science Inventory

We present recent experiments and modeling studies of dispersion in the convective boundary layer (CBL) with focus on highly-buoyant plumes that "loft" near the CBL top and resist downward mixing. Such plumes have been a significant problem in earlier dispersion models; they a...

Earlier Mother's Age at Menarche Predicts Rapid Infancy Growth and Childhood Obesity

PubMed Central

Ong, Ken K; Northstone, Kate; Wells, Jonathan CK; Rubin, Carol; Ness, Andy R; Golding, Jean; Dunger, David B

2007-01-01

Background Early menarche tends to be preceded by rapid infancy weight gain and is associated with increased childhood and adult obesity risk. As age at menarche is a heritable trait, we hypothesised that age at menarche in the mother may in turn predict her children's early growth and obesity risk. Methods and Findings We tested associations between mother's age at menarche, mother's adult body size and obesity risk, and her children's growth and obesity risk in 6,009 children from the UK population-based Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort who had growth and fat mass at age 9 y measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. A subgroup of 914 children also had detailed infancy and childhood growth data. In the mothers, earlier menarche was associated with shorter adult height (by 0.64 cm/y), increased weight (0.92 kg/y), and body mass index (BMI, 0.51 kg/m2/y; all p < 0.001). In contrast, in her children, earlier mother's menarche predicted taller height at 9 y (by 0.41 cm/y) and greater weight (0.80 kg/y), BMI (0.29 kg/m2/y), and fat mass index (0.22 kg/m2/year; all p < 0.001). Children in the earliest mother's menarche quintile (≤11 y) were more obese than the oldest quintile (≥15 y) (OR, 2.15, 95% CI 1.46 to 3.17; p < 0.001, adjusted for mother's education and BMI). In the subgroup, children in the earliest quintile showed faster gains in weight (p < 0.001) and height (p < 0.001) only from birth to 2 y, but not from 2 to 9 y (p = 0.3–0.8). Conclusions Earlier age at menarche may be a transgenerational marker of a faster growth tempo, characterised by rapid weight gain and growth, particularly during infancy, and leading to taller childhood stature, but likely earlier maturation and therefore shorter adult stature. This growth pattern confers increased childhood and adult obesity risks. PMID:17455989

Discharging patients earlier in the day: a concept worth evaluating.

PubMed

Kravet, Steven J; Levine, Rachel B; Rubin, Haya R; Wright, Scott M

2007-01-01

Patient discharges from the hospital often occur late in the day and are frequently clustered after 4 PM. When inpatients leave earlier in the day, quality is improved because new admissions awaiting beds are able to leave the emergency department sooner and emergency department waiting room backlog is reduced. Nursing staff, whose work patterns traditionally result in high activity of discharge and admission between 5 PM and 8 PM, benefit by spreading out their work across a longer part of the day. Discharging patients earlier in the day also has the potential to increase patient satisfaction. Despite multiple stakeholders in the discharge planning process, physicians play the most important role. Getting physician buy-in requires an ability to teach physicians about the concept of early-in-the-day discharges and their impact on the process. We defined a new physician-centered discharge planning process and introduced it to an internal medicine team with an identical control team as a comparison. Discharge time of day was analyzed for 1 month. Mean time of day of discharge was 13:39 for the intervention group versus 15:45 for the control group (P<.001). If reproduced successfully, this process could improve quality at an important transition point in patient care.

The association between cannabis use and earlier age at onset of schizophrenia and other psychoses: meta-analysis of possible confounding factors.

PubMed

Myles, Nicholas; Newall, Hannah; Nielssen, Olav; Large, Matthew

2012-01-01

A recent meta-analysis showed that the mean age of onset of psychosis among cannabis users was almost three years earlier than that of non-cannabis users. However, because cannabis users usually smoke tobacco, the use of tobacco might independently contribute to the earlier onset of psychosis. We aimed to use meta-analysis to compare the extent to which cannabis and tobacco use are each associated with an earlier age at onset of schizophrenia and other psychoses. We also examined other factors that might have contributed to the finding of an earlier age of onset among cannabis users, including the proportion of males in the samples, the diagnostic inclusion criteria and aspects of study quality. The electronic databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and ISI Web of Science, were searched for English-language peer-reviewed publications that reported age at onset of schizophrenia and other psychoses separately for cannabis users and non-users, or for tobaccosmokers and non-smokers. Meta-analysis showed that the age at onset of psychosis for cannabis users was 32 months earlier than for cannabis non-users (SMD=- 0.399, 95%CI -0.493 - -0.306, z=-8.34, p < 0.001), and was two weeks later in tobacco smokers compared with non-smokers (SMD=0.002, 95%CI -0.094 - 0.097, z=0.03, p=0.974). The main results were not affected by subgroup analyses examining studies of a single sex, the methods for making psychiatric diagnoses and measures of study quality. The results suggest that the association between cannabis use and earlier onset of psychosis is robust and is not the result either of tobacco smoking by cannabis using patients or the other potentially confounding factors we examined. This supports the hypothesis that, in some patients, cannabis use plays a causal role in the development of schizophrenia and raises the possibility of treating schizophrenia with new pharmacological treatments that have an affinity for endo-cannabinoid receptors.

Argonne Bubble Experiment Thermal Model Development III

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buechler, Cynthia Eileen

This report describes the continuation of the work reported in “Argonne Bubble Experiment Thermal Model Development” and “Argonne Bubble Experiment Thermal Model Development II”. The experiment was performed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) in 2014. A rastered 35 MeV electron beam deposited power in a solution of uranyl sulfate, generating heat and radiolytic gas bubbles. Irradiations were performed at beam power levels between 6 and 15 kW. Solution temperatures were measured by thermocouples, and gas bubble behavior was recorded. The previous report2 described the Monte-Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) calculations and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis performed on the as-built solution vesselmore » geometry. The CFD simulations in the current analysis were performed using Ansys Fluent, Ver. 17.2. The same power profiles determined from MCNP calculations in earlier work were used for the 12 and 15 kW simulations. The primary goal of the current work is to calculate the temperature profiles for the 12 and 15 kW cases using reasonable estimates for the gas generation rate, based on images of the bubbles recorded during the irradiations. Temperature profiles resulting from the CFD calculations are compared to experimental measurements.« less

Combined circulating tumor DNA and protein biomarker-based liquid biopsy for the earlier detection of pancreatic cancers

PubMed Central

Cohen, Joshua D.; Javed, Ammar A.; Thoburn, Christopher; Wong, Fay; Tie, Jeanne; Gibbs, Peter; Schmidt, C. Max; Yip-Schneider, Michele T.; Allen, Peter J.; Schattner, Mark; Brand, Randall E.; Singhi, Aatur D.; Petersen, Gloria M.; Hong, Seung-Mo; Kim, Song Cheol; Falconi, Massimo; Doglioni, Claudio; Weiss, Matthew J.; Ahuja, Nita; He, Jin; Makary, Martin A.; Maitra, Anirban; Hanash, Samir M.; Dal Molin, Marco; Wang, Yuxuan; Li, Lu; Ptak, Janine; Dobbyn, Lisa; Schaefer, Joy; Silliman, Natalie; Popoli, Maria; Goggins, Michael G.; Hruban, Ralph H.; Wolfgang, Christopher L.; Klein, Alison P.; Tomasetti, Cristian; Papadopoulos, Nickolas; Kinzler, Kenneth W.; Vogelstein, Bert; Lennon, Anne Marie

2017-01-01

The earlier diagnosis of cancer is one of the keys to reducing cancer deaths in the future. Here we describe our efforts to develop a noninvasive blood test for the detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. We combined blood tests for KRAS gene mutations with carefully thresholded protein biomarkers to determine whether the combination of these markers was superior to any single marker. The cohort tested included 221 patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas and 182 control patients without known cancer. KRAS mutations were detected in the plasma of 66 patients (30%), and every mutation found in the plasma was identical to that subsequently found in the patient’s primary tumor (100% concordance). The use of KRAS in conjunction with four thresholded protein biomarkers increased the sensitivity to 64%. Only one of the 182 plasma samples from the control cohort was positive for any of the DNA or protein biomarkers (99.5% specificity). This combinatorial approach may prove useful for the earlier detection of many cancer types. PMID:28874546

Traumatic Brain Injury History is Associated with Earlier Age of Onset of Alzheimer Disease

PubMed Central

LoBue, Christian; Wadsworth, Hannah; Wilmoth, Kristin; Clem, Matthew; Hart, John; Womack, Kyle B.; Didehbani, Nyaz; Lacritz, Laura H.; Rossetti, Heidi C.; Cullum, C. Munro

2016-01-01

Objective This study examined whether a history of traumatic brain injury (TBI) is associated with earlier onset of Alzheimer disease (AD), independent of apolipoprotein ε4 status (Apoe4) and gender. Method Participants with a clinical diagnosis of AD (n=7625) were obtained from the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center Uniform Data Set, and categorized based on self-reported lifetime TBI with loss of consciousness (LOC) (TBI+ vs TBI-) and presence of Apoe4. ANCOVAs, controlling for gender, race, and education were used to examine the association between history of TBI, presence of Apoe4, and an interaction of both risk factors on estimated age of AD onset. Results Estimated AD onset differed by TBI history and Apoe4 independently (p’s <.001). The TBI+ group had a mean age of onset 2.5 years earlier than the TBI- group. Likewise, Apoe4 carriers had a mean age of onset 2.3 years earlier than non-carriers. While the interaction was non-significant (p = .34), participants having both a history of TBI and Apoe4 had the earliest mean age of onset compared to those with a TBI history or Apoe4 alone (MDifference = 2.8 & 2.7 years, respectively). These results remained unchanged when stratified by gender. Conclusions History of self-reported TBI can be associated with an earlier onset of AD-related cognitive decline, regardless of Apoe4 status and gender. TBI may be related to an underlying neurodegenerative process in AD, but the implications of age at time of injury, severity, and repetitive injuries remain unclear. PMID:27855547

Earlier occurrence and increased explanatory power of climate for the first incidence of potato late blight caused by Phytophthora infestans in Fennoscandia

PubMed Central

Wiik, Lars; Hannukkala, Asko; Andreasson, Erik; Chen, Deliang; Ou, Tinghai; Liljeroth, Erland; Lankinen, Åsa

2017-01-01

Background Late blight (caused by Phytophthora infestans) is a devastating potato disease that has been found to occur earlier in the season over the last decades in Fennoscandia. Up until now the reasons for this change have not been investigated. Possible explanations for this change are climate alterations, changes in potato production or changes in pathogen biology, such as increased fitness or changes in gene flow within P. infestans populations. The first incidence of late blight is of high economic importance since fungicidal applications should be typically applied two weeks before the first signs of late blight and are repeated on average once a week. Methods We use field observations of first incidence of late blight in experimental potato fields from five sites in Sweden and Finland covering a total of 30 years and investigate whether the earlier incidence of late blight can be related to the climate. Results We linked the field data to meteorological data and found that the previous assumption, used in common late blight models, that the disease only develops at relative humidity levels above 90% had to be rejected. Rather than the typically assumed threshold relationship between late blight disease development and relative humidity we found a linear relationship. Our model furthermore showed two distinct responses of late blight to climate. At the beginning of the observation time (in Sweden until the early 90s and in Finland until the 2000s) the link between climate and first incidence was very weak. However, for the remainder of the time period the link was highly significant, indicating a change in the biological properties of the pathogen which could for example be a change in the dominating reproduction mode or a physiological change in the response of the pathogen to climate. Conclusions The study shows that models used in decision support systems need to be checked and re-parametrized regularly to be able to capture changes in pathogen biology

Multivariate dynamical modelling of structural change during development.

PubMed

Ziegler, Gabriel; Ridgway, Gerard R; Blakemore, Sarah-Jayne; Ashburner, John; Penny, Will

2017-02-15

Here we introduce a multivariate framework for characterising longitudinal changes in structural MRI using dynamical systems. The general approach enables modelling changes of states in multiple imaging biomarkers typically observed during brain development, plasticity, ageing and degeneration, e.g. regional gray matter volume of multiple regions of interest (ROIs). Structural brain states follow intrinsic dynamics according to a linear system with additional inputs accounting for potential driving forces of brain development. In particular, the inputs to the system are specified to account for known or latent developmental growth/decline factors, e.g. due to effects of growth hormones, puberty, or sudden behavioural changes etc. Because effects of developmental factors might be region-specific, the sensitivity of each ROI to contributions of each factor is explicitly modelled. In addition to the external effects of developmental factors on regional change, the framework enables modelling and inference about directed (potentially reciprocal) interactions between brain regions, due to competition for space, or structural connectivity, and suchlike. This approach accounts for repeated measures in typical MRI studies of development and aging. Model inversion and posterior distributions are obtained using earlier established variational methods enabling Bayesian evidence-based comparisons between various models of structural change. Using this approach we demonstrate dynamic cortical changes during brain maturation between 6 and 22 years of age using a large openly available longitudinal paediatric dataset with 637 scans from 289 individuals. In particular, we model volumetric changes in 26 bilateral ROIs, which cover large portions of cortical and subcortical gray matter. We account for (1) puberty-related effects on gray matter regions; (2) effects of an early transient growth process with additional time-lag parameter; (3) sexual dimorphism by modelling parameter

Developing a phenological model for grapevine to assess future frost risk in Luxembourg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caffarra, A.; Molitor, D.; Pertot, I.; Sinigoy, P.; Junk, J.

2012-04-01

Late frost damage represents a significant hazard to grape production in cool climate viticulture regions such as Luxembourg. The main aim of our study is to analyze the frequency of these events for the Luxembourg's winegrowing region in the future. Spring frost injuries on grape may occur when young green parts are exposed to air temperature below 0°C. The potential risk is determined by: (i) minimum air temperature conditions and the (ii) the timing of bud burst. Therefore, we developed and validated a model for budburst of the grapevine (*Vitis vinifera)* cultivar Rivaner, the most grown local variety, based on multi-annual data from 7 different sites across Europe and the US. An advantage of this approach is, that it could be applied to a wide range of climate conditions. Higher spring temperatures were projected for the future and could lead to earlier dates of budburst as well as earlier dates of last frost events in the season. However, so far it is unknown if this will increase or decrease the risk of severe late frost damages for Luxembourg's winegrowing region. To address this question results of 10 regional climate change projections from the FP6 ENSEMBLES project (spatial resolution = 25km; A1B emission scenario) were combined with the new bud burst model. The use of a multi model ensemble of climate change projections allows for a better quantification of the uncertainties. A bias corrections scheme, based on local observations, was applied to the model output. Projected daily minimum air temperatures, up to 2098, were compared to the projected date of bud burst in order to quantify the future frost risk for Luxembourg.

Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

A social network model for the development of a 'Theory of Mind'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harré, Michael S.

2013-02-01

A "Theory of Mind" is one of the most important skills we as humans have developed; It enables us to infer the mental states and intentions of others, build stable networks of relationships and it plays a central role in our psychological make-up and development. Findings published earlier this year have also shown that we as a species as well as each of us individually benefit from the enlargement of the underlying neuro-anatomical regions that support our social networks, mediated by our Theory of Mind that stabilises these networks. On the basis of such progress and that of earlier work, this paper draws together several different strands from psychology, behavioural economics and network theory in order to generate a novel theoretical representation of the development of our social-cognition and how subsequent larger social networks enables much of our cultural development but at the increased risk of mental disorders.

Developing Viable Financing Models for Space Tourism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilingsfeld, F.; Schaetzler, D.

2002-01-01

Increasing commercialization of space services and the impending release of government's control of space access promise to make space ventures more attractive. Still, many investors shy away from going into the space tourism market as long as they do not feel secure that their return expectations will be met. First and foremost, attracting investors from the capital markets requires qualifying financing models. Based on earlier research on the cost of capital for space tourism, this paper gives a brief run-through of commercial, technical and financial due diligence aspects. After that, a closer look is taken at different valuation techniques as well as alternative ways of streamlining financials. Experience from earlier ventures has shown that the high cost of capital represents a significant challenge. Thus, the sophistication and professionalism of business plans and financial models needs to be very high. Special emphasis is given to the optimization of the debt-to-equity ratio over time. The different roles of equity and debt over a venture's life cycle are explained. Based on the latter, guidelines for the design of an optimized loan structure are given. These are then applied to simulating the financial performance of a typical space tourism venture over time, including the calculation of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and Net Present Value (NPV). Based on a concluding sensitivity analysis, the lessons learned are presented. If applied properly, these will help to make space tourism economically viable.

Childhood hair product use and earlier age at menarche in a racially diverse study population: a pilot study.

PubMed

James-Todd, Tamarra; Terry, Mary Beth; Rich-Edwards, Janet; Deierlein, Andrea; Senie, Ruby

2011-06-01

Previous studies suggest that hair products containing endocrine disrupting chemicals could alter puberty. We evaluated the association between childhood hair product use and age at menarche in a racially diverse study population. We recruited 300 African-American, African-Caribbean, Hispanic, and white women from the New York City metropolitan area who were between 18-77 years of age. Data were collected retrospectively on hair oil, lotion, leave-in conditioner, perm, and other types of hair products used before age 13. Recalled age at menarche ranged from 8 to 19 years. We used multivariable binomial regression to evaluate the association between hair product use and age at menarche (<12 vs. ≥12), adjusting for potential confounders. African-Americans were more likely to use hair products and reached menarche earlier than other racial/ethnic groups. Women reporting childhood hair oil use had a risk ratio of 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-1.9) for earlier menarche, adjusting for race/ethnicity and year of birth. Hair perm users had an increased risk for earlier menarche (adjusted risk ratio = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1-1.8). Other types of hair products assessed in this study were not associated with earlier menarche. Childhood hair oil and perm use were associated with earlier menarche. If replicated, these results suggest that hair product use may be important to measure in evaluating earlier age at menarche. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Multivariate Model of Conceptual Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taasoobshirazi, Gita; Heddy, Benjamin; Bailey, MarLynn; Farley, John

2016-01-01

The present study used the Cognitive Reconstruction of Knowledge Model (CRKM) model of conceptual change as a framework for developing and testing how key cognitive, motivational, and emotional variables are linked to conceptual change in physics. This study extends an earlier study developed by Taasoobshirazi and Sinatra ("J Res Sci…

Validation of asphalt mixture pavement skid prediction model and development of skid prediction model for surface treatments.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-01

Pavement skid resistance is primarily a function of the surface texture, which includes both microtexture and macrotexture. Earlier, under the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) Research Project 0-5627, the researchers developed a method to p...

Diagnosis of varicoceles in men undergoing vasectomy may lead to earlier detection of hypogonadism.

PubMed

Liu, Joceline S; Jones, Madeline; Casey, Jessica T; Fuchs, Amanda B; Cashy, John; Lin, William W

2014-06-01

To determine the temporal relationship between vasectomy, varicocele, and hypogonadism diagnosis. Many young men undergo their first thorough genitourinary examination in their adult lives at the time of vasectomy consultation, providing a unique opportunity for diagnosis of asymptomatic varicoceles. Varicoceles have recently been implicated as a possible reversible contributor to hypogonadism. Hypogonadism may be associated with significant adverse effect, including decreased libido, impaired cognitive function, and increased cardiovascular events. Early diagnosis and treatment of hypogonadism may prevent these adverse sequelae. Data were collected from the Truven Health Analytics MarketScan database, a large outpatient claims database. We reviewed records between 2003 and 2010 for male patients between the ages of 25 and 50 years with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes for hypogonadism, vasectomy, and varicocele, and queried dates of first claim. A total of 15,679 men undergoing vasectomies were matched with 156,790 men with nonvasectomy claims in the same year. Vasectomy patients were diagnosed with varicocele at an earlier age (40.9 vs 42.5 years; P=.009). We identified 224,817 men between the ages of 25 and 50 years with a claim of hypogonadism, of which 5883 (2.6%) also had a claim of varicocele. Men with hypogonadism alone were older at presentation compared with men with an accompanying varicocele (41.3 [standard deviation±6.5] vs 34.9 [standard deviation±6.1]; P<.001). Men undergoing vasectomies are diagnosed with varicoceles at a younger age than age-matched controls. Men with varicoceles present with hypogonadism earlier than men without varicoceles. Earlier diagnosis of varicocele at the time of vasectomy allows for earlier detection of hypogonadism. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A mathematical model for maximizing the value of phase 3 drug development portfolios incorporating budget constraints and risk.

PubMed

Patel, Nitin R; Ankolekar, Suresh; Antonijevic, Zoran; Rajicic, Natasa

2013-05-10

We describe a value-driven approach to optimizing pharmaceutical portfolios. Our approach incorporates inputs from research and development and commercial functions by simultaneously addressing internal and external factors. This approach differentiates itself from current practices in that it recognizes the impact of study design parameters, sample size in particular, on the portfolio value. We develop an integer programming (IP) model as the basis for Bayesian decision analysis to optimize phase 3 development portfolios using expected net present value as the criterion. We show how this framework can be used to determine optimal sample sizes and trial schedules to maximize the value of a portfolio under budget constraints. We then illustrate the remarkable flexibility of the IP model to answer a variety of 'what-if' questions that reflect situations that arise in practice. We extend the IP model to a stochastic IP model to incorporate uncertainty in the availability of drugs from earlier development phases for phase 3 development in the future. We show how to use stochastic IP to re-optimize the portfolio development strategy over time as new information accumulates and budget changes occur. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Compulsive Buying: Earlier Illicit Drug Use, Impulse Buying, Depression, and Adult ADHD Symptoms

PubMed Central

Brook, Judith S.; Zhang, Chenshu; Brook, David W.; Leukefeld, Carl G.

2015-01-01

This longitudinal study examined the association between psychosocial antecedents, including illicit drug use, and adult compulsive buying (CB) across a 29-year time period from mean age 14 to mean age 43. Participants originally came from a community-based random sample of residents in two upstate New York counties. Multivariate linear regression analysis was used to study the relationship between the participant’s earlier psychosocial antecedents and adult CB in the fifth decade of life. The results of the multivariate linear regression analyses showed that gender (female), earlier adult impulse buying (IB), depressive mood, illicit drug use, and concurrent ADHD symptoms were all significantly associated with adult CB at mean age 43. It is important that clinicians treating CB in adults should consider the role of drug use, symptoms of ADHD, IB, depression, and family factors in CB. PMID:26165963

Insight Into Illness and Cognition in Schizophrenia in Earlier and Later Life.

PubMed

Gerretsen, Philip; Voineskos, Aristotle N; Graff-Guerrero, Ariel; Menon, Mahesh; Pollock, Bruce G; Mamo, David C; Mulsant, Benoit H; Rajji, Tarek K

2017-04-01

Impaired insight into illness in schizophrenia is associated with illness severity and deficits in premorbid intellectual function, executive function, and memory. A previous study of patients aged 60 years and older found that illness severity and premorbid intellectual function accounted for variance in insight impairment. As such, we aimed to test whether similar relationships would be observed in earlier life. A retrospective analysis was performed on 1 large sample of participants (n = 171) with a DSM-IV-TR diagnosis of schizophrenia aged 19 to 79 years acquired from 2 studies: (1) a psychosocial intervention trial for older persons with schizophrenia (June 2008 to May 2014) and (2) a diffusion tensor imaging and genetics study of psychosis across the life span (February 2007 to December 2013). We assessed insight into illness using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) item G12 and explored its relationship to illness severity (PANSS total modified), premorbid intellectual function (Wechsler Test of Adult Reading [WTAR]), and cognition. Insight impairment was more severe in later life (≥ 60 years) than in earlier years (t = -3.75, P < .001). Across the whole sample, the variance of impaired insight was explained by PANSS total modified (Exp[B] = 1.070, P < .001) and WTAR scores (Exp[B] = 0.970, P = .028). Although age and cognition were correlated with impaired insight, they did not independently contribute to its variance. However, the relationships between impaired insight and illness severity and between impaired insight and cognition, particularly working memory, were stronger in later life than in earlier life. These results suggest an opportunity for intervention may exist with cognitive-enhancing neurostimulation or medications to improve insight into illness in schizophrenia across the life span. Original study registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (identifier: NCT00832845). © Copyright 2017 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Earlier Right Ventricular Pacing in Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy for a Patient with Right Axis Deviation.

PubMed

Hattori, Yusuke; Ishibashi, Kohei; Noda, Takashi; Okamura, Hideo; Kanzaki, Hideaki; Anzai, Toshihisa; Yasuda, Satoshi; Kusano, Kengo

2017-09-01

We describe the case of a 37-year-old woman who presented with complete right bundle branch block and right axis deviation. She was admitted to our hospital due to severe heart failure and was dependent on inotropic agents. Cardiac resynchronization therapy was initiated but did not improve her condition. After the optimization of the pacing timing, we performed earlier right ventricular pacing, which led to an improvement of her heart failure. Earlier right ventricular pacing should be considered in patients with complete right bundle branch block and right axis deviation when cardiac resynchronization therapy is not effective.

Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

NMR-based fecal metabolomics fingerprinting as predictors of earlier diagnosis in patients with colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Lin, Yan; Ma, Changchun; Liu, Chengkang; Wang, Zhening; Yang, Jurong; Liu, Xinmu; Shen, Zhiwei; Wu, Renhua

2016-05-17

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a growing cause of mortality in developing countries, warranting investigation into its earlier detection for optimal disease management. A metabolomics based approach provides potential for noninvasive identification of biomarkers of colorectal carcinogenesis, as well as dissection of molecular pathways of pathophysiological conditions. Here, proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1HNMR) -based metabolomic approach was used to profile fecal metabolites of 68 CRC patients (stage I/II=20; stage III=25 and stage IV=23) and 32 healthy controls (HC). Pattern recognition through principal component analysis (PCA) and orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) was applied on 1H-NMR processed data for dimension reduction. OPLS-DA revealed that each stage of CRC could be clearly distinguished from HC based on their metabolomic profiles. Successive analyses identified distinct disturbances to fecal metabolites of CRC patients at various stages, compared with those in cancer free controls, including reduced levels of acetate, butyrate, propionate, glucose, glutamine, and elevated quantities of succinate, proline, alanine, dimethylglycine, valine, glutamate, leucine, isoleucine and lactate. These altered fecal metabolites potentially involved in the disruption of normal bacterial ecology, malabsorption of nutrients, increased glycolysis and glutaminolysis. Our findings revealed that the fecal metabolic profiles of healthy controls can be distinguished from CRC patients, even in the early stage (stage I/II), highlighting the potential utility of NMR-based fecal metabolomics fingerprinting as predictors of earlier diagnosis in CRC patients.

NMR-based fecal metabolomics fingerprinting as predictors of earlier diagnosis in patients with colorectal cancer

PubMed Central

Lin, Yan; Ma, Changchun; Liu, Chengkang; Wang, Zhening; Yang, Jurong; Liu, Xinmu; Shen, Zhiwei; Wu, Renhua

2016-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a growing cause of mortality in developing countries, warranting investigation into its earlier detection for optimal disease management. A metabolomics based approach provides potential for noninvasive identification of biomarkers of colorectal carcinogenesis, as well as dissection of molecular pathways of pathophysiological conditions. Here, proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1HNMR) -based metabolomic approach was used to profile fecal metabolites of 68 CRC patients (stage I/II=20; stage III=25 and stage IV=23) and 32 healthy controls (HC). Pattern recognition through principal component analysis (PCA) and orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) was applied on 1H-NMR processed data for dimension reduction. OPLS-DA revealed that each stage of CRC could be clearly distinguished from HC based on their metabolomic profiles. Successive analyses identified distinct disturbances to fecal metabolites of CRC patients at various stages, compared with those in cancer free controls, including reduced levels of acetate, butyrate, propionate, glucose, glutamine, and elevated quantities of succinate, proline, alanine, dimethylglycine, valine, glutamate, leucine, isoleucine and lactate. These altered fecal metabolites potentially involved in the disruption of normal bacterial ecology, malabsorption of nutrients, increased glycolysis and glutaminolysis. Our findings revealed that the fecal metabolic profiles of healthy controls can be distinguished from CRC patients, even in the early stage (stage I/II), highlighting the potential utility of NMR-based fecal metabolomics fingerprinting as predictors of earlier diagnosis in CRC patients. PMID:27107423

Compulsive buying: Earlier illicit drug use, impulse buying, depression, and adult ADHD symptoms.

PubMed

Brook, Judith S; Zhang, Chenshu; Brook, David W; Leukefeld, Carl G

2015-08-30

This longitudinal study examined the association between psychosocial antecedents, including illicit drug use, and adult compulsive buying (CB) across a 29-year time period from mean age 14 to mean age 43. Participants originally came from a community-based random sample of residents in two upstate New York counties. Multivariate linear regression analysis was used to study the relationship between the participant's earlier psychosocial antecedents and adult CB in the fifth decade of life. The results of the multivariate linear regression analyses showed that gender (female), earlier adult impulse buying (IB), depressive mood, illicit drug use, and concurrent ADHD symptoms were all significantly associated with adult CB at mean age 43. It is important that clinicians treating CB in adults should consider the role of drug use, symptoms of ADHD, IB, depression, and family factors in CB. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

New interplanetary proton fluence model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feynman, Joan; Armstrong, T. P.; Dao-Gibner, L.; Silverman, S.

1990-01-01

A new predictive engineering model for the interplanetary fluence of protons with above 10 MeV and above 30 MeV is described. The data set used is a combination of observations made from the earth's surface and from above the atmosphere between 1956 and 1963 and observations made from spacecraft in the vicinity of earth between 1963 and 1985. The data cover a time period three times as long as the period used in earlier models. With the use of this data set the distinction between 'ordinary proton events' and 'anomalously large events' made in earlier work disappears. This permitted the use of statistical analysis methods developed for 'ordinary events' on the entire data set. The greater than 10 MeV fluences at 1 AU calculated with the new model are about twice those expected on the basis of models now in use. At energies above 30 MeV, the old and new models agree. In contrast to earlier models, the results do not depend critically on the fluence from any one event and are independent of sunspot number. Mission probability curves derived from the fluence distribution are presented.

Earlier versus later continuous Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) for stable low-birth-weight infants: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Nagai, S; Andrianarimanana, D; Rabesandratana, N; Yonemoto, N; Nakayama, T; Mori, R

2010-06-01

The aim of this study was to examine the effectiveness of earlier continuous Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) for relatively stable low-birth-weight (LBW) infants in a resource-limited country. A randomized controlled trial was performed in LBW infants at a referral hospital in Madagascar. Earlier continuous KMC (intervention) was begun as soon as possible, within 24 h postbirth, and later continuous KMC (control: conventional care) was begun after complete stabilization (generally after 24 h postbirth). Main outcome measure was mortality during the first 28 days postbirth. This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00531492. A total of 73 infants (intervention 37, control 36) were included. Earlier continuous KMC had higher but no statistically different mortality in the first 28 days postbirth (1 vs. 2; risk ratio, 1.95; 95% CIs, 0.18-20.53; p = 1.00). There were no differences in incidence of morbidities. Body weight loss from birth to 24 h postbirth was significantly less in earlier KMC infants compared with later KMC infants. (-34.81 g vs. -73.97 g; mean difference, 39.16 g; 95% CIs, 10.30-68.03; p = 0.01; adjusted p = 0.02). Adverse events and duration of hospitalization were not different between the two groups. Further evaluations of earlier continuous KMC including measurement of KMC dose, are needed in resource-limited countries.

Foundation-industry relationships--a new business model joint-venture philanthropy in therapy development.

PubMed

Bartek, Ronald J

2014-01-01

The business model for medical therapy development has changed drastically. Large companies that once conducted their own Research and Development (R&D) and funded all the preclinical studies, all phases of clinical development and marketing of the products are increasingly turning to others for more and more of the earlier work in hopes of being able to in-license a de-risked program well downstream, take it through the final phases of clinical development and into the marketplace. This new paradigm has required patient-advocacy foundations, especially in the rare-disease space, to become far more effective in building relationships with all the players along the therapy-development pathway -- academic scientists, government agencies, other foundations with overlapping interests, biotechs, small biopharmaceutical entities and even the larger industry companies. From the perspective of the patient-advocacy community, these increasingly essential public-private partnerships have taken on the nature of what could be called joint-venture philanthropy and involve a broad spectrum of collaborations and financial relationships between foundations and industry partners that are not without concerns about potential conflicts of interest.

Earlier anal sexarche and co-occurring sexual risk are associated with current HIV-related risk behaviors among an online sample of men who have sex with men in Asia

PubMed Central

Cheung, Doug H.; Suharlim, Christian; Guadamuz, Thomas E.; Lim, Sin How; Koe, Stuart; Wei, Chongyi

2014-01-01

Studies of heterosexual populations across the globe and men who have sex with men (MSM) in a few developed countries showed that earlier sexual debut (sexarche) was associated with higher levels of co-occurring and subsequent HIV risk behaviors. We examined the relationships between earlier anal sexarche, unprotected earlier anal sexarche and current HIV risks among MSM from Asia. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among MSM (N = 10,826) in Asia in 2010. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regressions were used to identify co-occurring (i.e., sexual experiences during sexarche) and current HIV-related risk factors (i.e., past six months) associated with earlier anal sexarche (before the age of 18) and unprotected earlier anal sexarche, respectively. Earlier anal sexarche was significantly associated with lack of condom use, being anal receptive or both receptive and insertive, and having a partner who were older during sexarche. It was also associated with current HIV-related risk behaviors including having multiple male sexual partners, having been paid for sex, and increased frequencies of recreational drug use. Unprotected earlier anal sexarche was significantly associated with inconsistent condom use in the past the six months. Improved and culturally sensitive sex education at schools should be included in national and regional HIV/AIDS prevention programming and policies in Asia. Such sex education programs should incorporate curriculum that address sexuality, sexual orientation, and sexual behaviors beyond those related to reproductive health. PMID:24920344

Earlier anal sexarche and co-occurring sexual risk are associated with current HIV-related risk behaviors among an online sample of men who have sex with men in Asia.

PubMed

Cheung, Doug H; Suharlim, Christian; Guadamuz, Thomas E; Lim, Sin How; Koe, Stuart; Wei, Chongyi

2014-12-01

Studies of heterosexual populations across the globe and men who have sex with men (MSM) in a few developed countries showed that earlier sexual debut (sexarche) was associated with higher levels of co-occurring and subsequent HIV risk behaviors. We examined the relationships between earlier anal sexarche, unprotected earlier anal sexarche and current HIV risks among MSM from Asia. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among MSM (N = 10,826) in Asia in 2010. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regressions were used to identify co-occurring (i.e., sexual experiences during sexarche) and current HIV-related risk factors (i.e., past 6 months) associated with earlier anal sexarche (before the age of 18) and unprotected earlier anal sexarche, respectively. Earlier anal sexarche was significantly associated with lack of condom use, being anal receptive or both receptive and insertive, and having a partner who were older during sexarche. It was also associated with current HIV-related risk behaviors including having multiple male sexual partners, having been paid for sex, and increased frequencies of recreational drug use. Unprotected earlier anal sexarche was significantly associated with inconsistent condom use in the past the 6 months. Improved and culturally sensitive sex education at schools should be included in national and regional HIV/AIDS prevention programming and policies in Asia. Such sex education programs should incorporate curriculum that address sexuality, sexual orientation, and sexual behaviors beyond those related to reproductive health.

A Review of Quality of Life after Predictive Testing for and Earlier Identification of Neurodegenerative Diseases

PubMed Central

Paulsen, Jane S.; Nance, Martha; Kim, Ji-In; Carlozzi, Noelle E.; Panegyres, Peter K.; Erwin, Cheryl; Goh, Anita; McCusker, Elizabeth; Williams, Janet K.

2013-01-01

The past decade has witnessed an explosion of evidence suggesting that many neurodegenerative diseases can be detected years, if not decades, earlier than previously thought. To date, these scientific advances have not provoked any parallel translational or clinical improvements. There is an urgency to capitalize on this momentum so earlier detection of disease can be more readily translated into improved health-related quality of life for families at risk for, or suffering with, neurodegenerative diseases. In this review, we discuss health-related quality of life (HRQOL) measurement in neurodegenerative diseases and the importance of these “patient reported outcomes” for all clinical research. Next, we address HRQOL following early identification or predictive genetic testing in some neurodegenerative diseases: Huntington disease, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, Dementia with Lewy bodies, frontotemporal dementia, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, prion diseases, hereditary ataxias, Dentatorubral-pallidoluysian atrophy and Wilson's disease. After a brief report of available direct-to-consumer genetic tests, we address the juxtaposition of earlier disease identification with assumed reluctance towards predictive genetic testing. Forty-one studies examining health related outcomes following predictive genetic testing for neurodegenerative disease suggested that (a) extreme or catastrophic outcomes are rare; (b) consequences commonly include transiently increased anxiety and/or depression; (c) most participants report no regret; (d) many persons report extensive benefits to receiving genetic information; and (e) stigmatization and discrimination for genetic diseases are poorly understood and policy and laws are needed. Caution is appropriate for earlier identification of neurodegenerative diseases but findings suggest further progress is safe, feasible and likely to advance clinical care. PMID:24036231

Modeling Development in Retinal Afferents: Retinotopy, Segregation, and EphrinA/EphA Mutants

PubMed Central

Godfrey, Keith B.; Swindale, Nicholas V.

2014-01-01

During neural development, neurons extend axons to target areas of the brain. Through processes of growth, branching and retraction these axons establish stereotypic patterns of connectivity. In the visual system, these patterns include retinotopic organization and the segregation of individual axons onto different subsets of target neurons based on the eye of origin (ocular dominance) or receptive field type (ON or OFF). Characteristic disruptions to these patterns occur when neural activity or guidance molecule expression is perturbed. In this paper we present a model that explains how these developmental patterns might emerge as a result of the coordinated growth and retraction of individual axons and synapses responding to position-specific markers, trophic factors and spontaneous neural activity. This model derives from one presented earlier (Godfrey et al., 2009) but which is here extended to account for a wider range of phenomena than previously described. These include ocular dominance and ON-OFF segregation and the results of altered ephrinA and EphA guidance molecule expression. The model takes into account molecular guidance factors, realistic patterns of spontaneous retinal wave activity, trophic molecules, homeostatic mechanisms, axon branching and retraction rules and intra-axonal signaling mechanisms that contribute to the survival of nearby synapses on an axon. We show that, collectively, these mechanisms can account for a wider range of phenomena than previous models of retino-tectal development. PMID:25122119

Traumatic brain injury history is associated with an earlier age of dementia onset in autopsy-confirmed Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Schaffert, Jeff; LoBue, Christian; White, Charles L; Chiang, Hsueh-Sheng; Didehbani, Nyaz; Lacritz, Laura; Rossetti, Heidi; Dieppa, Marisara; Hart, John; Cullum, C Munro

2018-05-01

To evaluate whether a history of traumatic brain injury (TBI) with reported loss of consciousness (LOC) is a risk factor for earlier onset of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in an autopsy-confirmed sample. Data from 2,133 participants with autopsy-confirmed AD (i.e., at least Braak neurofibrillary tangle stages III to VI and CERAD neuritic plaque score moderate to frequent) were obtained from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC). Participants were categorized by presence/absence of self-reported remote (i.e., >1 year prior to their first Alzheimer's Disease Center visit) history of TBI with LOC (TBI+ vs. TBI-). Analyses of Covariance (ANCOVA) controlling for sex, education, and race compared groups on clinician-estimated age of symptom onset and age of diagnosis. Average age of onset was 2.34 years earlier (p = .01) for the TBI+ group (n = 194) versus the TBI- group (n = 1900). Dementia was diagnosed on average 2.83 years earlier (p = .002) in the TBI+ group (n = 197) versus the TBI- group (n = 1936). Using more stringent neuropathological criteria (i.e., Braak stages V-VI and CERAD frequent), both age of AD onset and diagnosis were 3.6 years earlier in the TBI+ group (both p's < .001). History of TBI with reported LOC appears to be a risk factor for earlier AD onset. This is the first study to use autopsy-confirmed cases, supporting previous investigations that used clinical criteria for the diagnosis of AD. Further investigation as to possible underlying mechanisms of association is needed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Earlier Pulmonary Valve Replacement in Down Syndrome Patients Following Tetralogy of Fallot Repair.

PubMed

Sullivan, Rachel T; Frommelt, Peter C; Hill, Garick D

2017-08-01

The association between Down syndrome and pulmonary hypertension could contribute to more severe pulmonary regurgitation after tetralogy of Fallot repair and possibly earlier pulmonary valve replacement. We compared cardiac magnetic resonance measures of pulmonary regurgitation and right ventricular dilation as well as timing of pulmonary valve replacement between those with and without Down syndrome after tetralogy of Fallot repair. Review of our surgical database from 2000 to 2015 identified patients with tetralogy of Fallot with pulmonary stenosis. Those with Down syndrome were compared to those without. The primary outcome of interest was time from repair to pulmonary valve replacement. Secondary outcomes included pulmonary regurgitation and indexed right ventricular volume on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. The cohort of 284 patients included 35 (12%) with Down syndrome. Transannular patch repair was performed in 210 (74%). Down syndrome showed greater degree of pulmonary regurgitation (55 ± 14 vs. 37 ± 16%, p = 0.01) without a significantly greater rate of right ventricular dilation (p = 0.09). In multivariable analysis, Down syndrome (HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.2-4.5, p = 0.02) and transannular patch repair (HR 5.5, 95% CI 1.7-17.6, p = 0.004) were significant risk factors for valve replacement. Those with Down syndrome had significantly lower freedom from valve replacement (p = 0.03). Down syndrome is associated with an increased degree of pulmonary regurgitation and earlier pulmonary valve replacement after tetralogy of Fallot repair. These patients require earlier assessment by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging to determine timing of pulmonary valve replacement and evaluation for and treatment of preventable causes of pulmonary hypertension.

40 CFR 87.21 - Exhaust emission standards for Tier 4 and earlier engines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Emissions (New Aircraft Gas Turbine Engines) § 87.21 Exhaust emission standards for Tier 4 and earlier... standards. (a) Exhaust emissions of smoke from each new aircraft gas turbine engine of class T8 manufactured... from each new aircraft gas turbine engine of class TF and of rated output of 129 kilonewtons thrust or...

40 CFR 87.21 - Exhaust emission standards for Tier 4 and earlier engines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Emissions (New Aircraft Gas Turbine Engines) § 87.21 Exhaust emission standards for Tier 4 and earlier... standards. (a) Exhaust emissions of smoke from each new aircraft gas turbine engine of class T8 manufactured... from each new aircraft gas turbine engine of class TF and of rated output of 129 kilonewtons thrust or...

Assimilating the Future for Better Forecasts and Earlier Warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, H.; Wheatcroft, E.; Smith, L. A.

2016-12-01

Multi-model ensembles have become popular tools to account for some of the uncertainty due to model inadequacy in weather and climate simulation-based predictions. The current multi-model forecasts focus on combining single model ensemble forecasts by means of statistical post-processing. Assuming each model is developed independently or with different primary target variables, each is likely to contain different dynamical strengths and weaknesses. Using statistical post-processing, such information is only carried by the simulations under a single model ensemble: no advantage is taken to influence simulations under the other models. A novel methodology, named Multi-model Cross Pollination in Time, is proposed for multi-model ensemble scheme with the aim of integrating the dynamical information regarding the future from each individual model operationally. The proposed approach generates model states in time via applying data assimilation scheme(s) to yield truly "multi-model trajectories". It is demonstrated to outperform traditional statistical post-processing in the 40-dimensional Lorenz96 flow. Data assimilation approaches are originally designed to improve state estimation from the past to the current time. The aim of this talk is to introduce a framework that uses data assimilation to improve model forecasts at future time (not to argue for any one particular data assimilation scheme). Illustration of applying data assimilation "in the future" to provide early warning of future high-impact events is also presented.

Earlier Age of Onset of Chronic Hypertension and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus After a Hypertensive Disorder of Pregnancy or Gestational Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Heida, Karst Y; Franx, Arie; van Rijn, Bas B; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; Boer, Jolanda M A; Verschuren, Monique W M; Oudijk, Martijn A; Bots, Michiel L; van der Schouw, Yvonne T

2015-12-01

A prospective cohort study was conducted to assess the impact of a history of hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (HDP) or gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) on the risk and age of onset of hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), and cardiovascular disease (CVD) later in life, independent of hypertension and T2D. Between 1993 and 1997, 22 265 ever-pregnant women were included from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-NL study, aged 20 to 70 years at baseline. Details on complications of pregnancy and known hypertension were obtained by questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured at enrollment. Participants were followed for the occurrence of CVD events. Data were analyzed using ANCOVA, multivariable logistic regression, and Cox proportional hazard (with HDP and GDM as time-dependent variables for T2D and CVD) models. At enrollment, women with a HDP reported diagnosis of hypertension 7.7 years earlier (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.9-8.5) and women with GDM reported diagnosis of T2D 7.7 years earlier (95% CI 5.8-9.6) than women without pregnancy complications. After adjustment for potential confounders, HDP was associated with presence of hypertension at enrollment (odds ratio 2.12, 95% CI 1.98-2.28) and onset of CVD later in life (hazard ratio 1.21, 95% CI 1.10-1.32). After including the intermediates hypertension and T2D in the model, the risk of CVD later in life decreased (hazard ratio 1.09, 95% CI 1.00-1.20). GDM was associated with an increased risk of developing T2D later in life (hazard ratio 3.68, 95% CI 2.77-4.90), but not with risk of CVD. HDP and GDM have a substantial impact on the risk of CVD and are potentially important indicators for preventive cardiovascular risk management. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Overview 2004 of NASA-Stirling Convertor CFD Model Development and Regenerator R and D Efforts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tew, Roy C.; Dyson, Rodger W.; Wilson, Scott D.; Demko, Rikako

2004-01-01

This paper reports on accomplishments in 2004 in (1) development of Stirling-convertor CFD models at NASA Glenn and via a NASA grant, (2) a Stirling regenerator-research effort being conducted via a NASA grant (a follow-on effort to an earlier DOE contract), and (3) a regenerator-microfabrication contract for development of a "next-generation Stirling regenerator." Cleveland State University is the lead organization for all three grant/contractual efforts, with the University of Minnesota and Gedeon Associates as subcontractors. Also, the Stirling Technology Company and Sunpower, Inc. are both involved in all three efforts, either as funded or unfunded participants. International Mezzo Technologies of Baton Rouge, Louisiana is the regenerator fabricator for the regenerator-microfabrication contract. Results of the efforts in these three areas are summarized.

Design a Fuzzy Rule-based Expert System to Aid Earlier Diagnosis of Gastric Cancer.

PubMed

Safdari, Reza; Arpanahi, Hadi Kazemi; Langarizadeh, Mostafa; Ghazisaiedi, Marjan; Dargahi, Hossein; Zendehdel, Kazem

2018-01-01

Screening and health check-up programs are most important sanitary priorities, that should be undertaken to control dangerous diseases such as gastric cancer that affected by different factors. More than 50% of gastric cancer diagnoses are made during the advanced stage. Currently, there is no systematic approach for early diagnosis of gastric cancer. to develop a fuzzy expert system that can identify gastric cancer risk levels in individuals. This system was implemented in MATLAB software, Mamdani inference technique applied to simulate reasoning of experts in the field, a total of 67 fuzzy rules extracted as a rule-base based on medical expert's opinion. 50 case scenarios were used to evaluate the system, the information of case reports is given to the system to find risk level of each case report then obtained results were compared with expert's diagnosis. Results revealed that sensitivity was 92.1% and the specificity was 83.1%. The results show that is possible to develop a system that can identify High risk individuals for gastric cancer. The system can lead to earlier diagnosis, this may facilitate early treatment and reduce gastric cancer mortality rate.

Chemo-elastic modeling of invasive carcinoma development accompanied by oncogenic epithelial-mesenchymal transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bratsun, D. A.; Krasnyakov, I. V.; Pismen, L.

2017-09-01

We present a further development of a multiscale chemo-mechanical model of carcinoma growth in the epithelium tissue proposed earlier. The epithelium is represented by an elastic 2D array of polygonal cells, each with its own gene regulation dynamics. The model allows the simulation of evolution of multiple cells interacting via the chemical signaling or mechanically induced strain. The algorithm takes into account the division and intercalation of cells. The latter is most important since, first of all, carcinoma cells lose cell-cell adhesion and polarity via the oncogenic variant of the epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) at which cells gain migratory and invasive properties. This process is mediated by E-cadherin repression and requires the differentiation of tumor cells with respect to the edge of the tumor that means that front cells should be most mobile. Taking into account this suggestion, we present the results of simulations demonstrating different patterns of carcinoma invasion. The comparison of our results with recent experimental observations is given and discussed.

Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, E.V.; Lunn, N.J.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2007-01-01

Some of the most pronounced ecological responses to climatic warming are expected to occur in polar marine regions, where temperature increases have been the greatest and sea ice provides a sensitive mechanism by which climatic conditions affect sympagic (i.e., with ice) species. Population-level effects of climatic change, however, remain difficult to quantify. We used a flexible extension of Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture models to estimate population size and survival for polar bears (Ursus maritimus), one of the most ice-dependent of Arctic marine mammals. We analyzed data for polar bears captured from 1984 to 2004 along the western coast of Hudson Bay and in the community of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. The Western Hudson Bay polar bear population declined from 1,194 (95% CI = 1,020-1,368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794-1,076) in 2004. Total apparent survival of prime-adult polar bears (5-19 yr) was stable for females (0.93; 95% CI = 0.91-0.94) and males (0.90; 95% CI = 0.88-0.91). Survival of juvenile, subadult, and senescent-adult polar bears was correlated with spring sea ice breakup date, which was variable among years and occurred approximately 3 weeks earlier in 2004 than in 1984. We propose that this correlation provides evidence for a causal association between earlier sea ice breakup (due to climatic warming) and decreased polar bear survival. It may also explain why Churchill, like other communities along the western coast of Hudson Bay, has experienced an increase in human-polar bear interactions in recent years. Earlier sea ice breakup may have resulted in a larger number of nutritionally stressed polar bears, which are encroaching on human habitations in search of supplemental food. Because western Hudson Bay is near the southern limit of the species' range, our findings may foreshadow the demographic responses and management challenges that more northerly polar bear populations will experience if climatic warming in the Arctic continues as

Hemodynamic parameters change earlier than tissue oxygen tension in hemorrhage.

PubMed

Pestel, Gunther J; Fukui, Kimiko; Kimberger, Oliver; Hager, Helmut; Kurz, Andrea; Hiltebrand, Luzius B

2010-05-15

Untreated hypovolemia results in impaired outcome. This study tests our hypothesis whether general hemodynamic parameters detect acute blood loss earlier than monitoring parameters of regional tissue beds. Eight pigs (23-25 kg) were anesthetized and mechanically ventilated. A pulmonary artery catheter and an arterial catheter were inserted. Tissue oxygen tension was measured with Clark-type electrodes in the jejunal and colonic wall, in the liver, and subcutaneously. Jejunal microcirculation was assessed by laser Doppler flowmetry (LDF). Intravascular volume was optimized using difference in pulse pressure (dPP) to keep dPP below 13%. Sixty minutes after preparation, baseline measurements were taken. At first, 5% of total blood volume was withdrawn, followed by another 5% increment, and then in 10% increments until death. After withdrawal of 5% of estimated blood volume, dPP increased from 6.1% +/- 3.0% to 20.8% +/- 2.7% (P < 0.01). Mean arterial pressure (MAP), mean pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) and pulmonary artery occlusion pressure (PAOP) decreased with a blood loss of 10% (P < 0.01). Cardiac output (CO) changed after a blood loss of 20% (P < 0.05). Tissue oxygen tension in central organs, and blood flow in the jejunal muscularis decreased (P < 0.05) after a blood loss of 20%. Tissue oxygen tension in the skin, and jejunal mucosa blood flow decreased (P < 0.05) after a blood loss of 40% and 50%, respectively. In this hemorrhagic pig model systemic hemodynamic parameters were more sensitive to detect acute hypovolemia than tissue oxygen tension measurements or jejunal LDF measurements. Acute blood loss was detected first by dPP. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-term effects of earlier initiated continuous Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) for low-birth-weight (LBW) infants in Madagascar.

PubMed

Nagai, Shuko; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Rabesandratana, Norotiana; Andrianarimanana, Diavolana; Nakayama, Takeo; Mori, Rintaro

2011-12-01

To examine the long-term effects of earlier initiated continuous Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) for relatively stable low-birth-weight (LBW) infants in a resource-limited country. A randomized controlled trial with long-term follow-up was performed in LBW infants in Madagascar. Earlier continuous KMC (intervention group) was initiated as soon as possible within 24 h postbirth, and later continuous KMC (control group: conventional care) was initiated after complete stabilization. Outcome measures were mortality or readmission, nutritional indicators at 6-12 months postbirth and feeding condition at 6 months postbirth (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00531492). A total of 72 infants were followed for mortality or readmission at 6-12 months postbirth. There was no difference between the two groups (7/36 vs. 7/36, Risk ratio (RR), 1.00; 95% CIs, 0.39-2.56; p = 1.00). The proportion of exclusive breast feeding (EBF) at 6 months postbirth was significantly higher with earlier KMC than later KMC (12/29 vs. 4/26; RR 2.69; 95% CIs, 1.00-7.31; p = 0.04). There were no differences in nutritional indicators between the two groups at 6-12 months postbirth. Earlier initiated continuous KMC results in a significantly higher proportion of EBF at 6 months postbirth. Further larger-scale long-term evaluations of earlier initiated continuous KMC for LBW infants are needed. © 2011 The Author(s)/Acta Paediatrica © 2011 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

A vantage from space can detect earlier drought onset: an approach using relative humidity.

PubMed

Farahmand, Alireza; AghaKouchak, Amir; Teixeira, Joao

2015-02-25

Each year, droughts cause significant economic and agricultural losses across the world. The early warning and onset detection of drought is of particular importance for effective agriculture and water resource management. Previous studies show that the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), a measure of precipitation deficit, detects drought onset earlier than other indicators. Here we show that satellite-based near surface air relative humidity data can further improve drought onset detection and early warning. This paper introduces the Standardized Relative Humidity Index (SRHI) based on the NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations. The results indicate that the SRHI typically detects the drought onset earlier than the SPI. While the AIRS mission was not originally designed for drought monitoring, we show that its relative humidity data offers a new and unique avenue for drought monitoring and early warning. We conclude that the early warning aspects of SRHI may have merit for integration into current drought monitoring systems.

A Vantage from Space Can Detect Earlier Drought Onset: An Approach Using Relative Humidity

PubMed Central

Farahmand, Alireza; AghaKouchak, Amir; Teixeira, Joao

2015-01-01

Each year, droughts cause significant economic and agricultural losses across the world. The early warning and onset detection of drought is of particular importance for effective agriculture and water resource management. Previous studies show that the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), a measure of precipitation deficit, detects drought onset earlier than other indicators. Here we show that satellite-based near surface air relative humidity data can further improve drought onset detection and early warning. This paper introduces the Standardized Relative Humidity Index (SRHI) based on the NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations. The results indicate that the SRHI typically detects the drought onset earlier than the SPI. While the AIRS mission was not originally designed for drought monitoring, we show that its relative humidity data offers a new and unique avenue for drought monitoring and early warning. We conclude that the early warning aspects of SRHI may have merit for integration into current drought monitoring systems. PMID:25711500

Light pollution is associated with earlier tree budburst across the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Ffrench-Constant, Richard H; Somers-Yeates, Robin; Bennie, Jonathan; Economou, Theodoros; Hodgson, David; Spalding, Adrian; McGregor, Peter K

2016-06-29

The ecological impact of night-time lighting is of concern because of its well-demonstrated effects on animal behaviour. However, the potential of light pollution to change plant phenology and its corresponding knock-on effects on associated herbivores are less clear. Here, we test if artificial lighting can advance the timing of budburst in trees. We took a UK-wide 13 year dataset of spatially referenced budburst data from four deciduous tree species and matched it with both satellite imagery of night-time lighting and average spring temperature. We find that budburst occurs up to 7.5 days earlier in brighter areas, with the relationship being more pronounced for later-budding species. Excluding large urban areas from the analysis showed an even more pronounced advance of budburst, confirming that the urban 'heat-island' effect is not the sole cause of earlier urban budburst. Similarly, the advance in budburst across all sites is too large to be explained by increases in temperature alone. This dramatic advance of budburst illustrates the need for further experimental investigation into the impact of artificial night-time lighting on plant phenology and subsequent species interactions. As light pollution is a growing global phenomenon, the findings of this study are likely to be applicable to a wide range of species interactions across the world. © 2016 The Authors.

Sensory, physical and chemical characteristics of cooked ham manufactured from rapidly chilled and earlier deboned M. semimembranosus.

PubMed

Tomović, Vladimir M; Jokanović, Marija R; Petrović, Ljiljana S; Tomović, Mila S; Tasić, Tatjana A; Ikonić, Predrag M; Sumić, Zdravko M; Sojić, Branislav V; Skaljac, Snežana B; Sošo, Milena M

2013-01-01

Effects of rapid chilling of carcasses (at -31°C in the first 3h of chilling, and then at 2-4°C) and earlier deboning (8h post-mortem), compared to rapid (till 24h post-mortem) and conventional chilling (at 2-4°C, till 24h post-mortem), on quality characteristics of pork M. semimebranosus and cooked ham were investigated. Quality measurements included pH value, colour (CIEL a b values) and total aerobic count of M. semimebranosus, as well as sensory (colour, juiciness, texture, and flavour), physical (pH value, colour - CIEL a b values and texture - Warner-Bratzler shear and penetration forces) and chemical (protein, total fat, and moisture content) characteristics of cooked ham. The cooked ham was manufactured from pieces of M. semimebranosus with ultimate lightness (CIEL value) lower than 50. Rapid chilling and earlier deboning significantly increased quantity of M. semimebranosus desirable for cooked ham manufacturing. Earlier start of pork fabrication did not affect important quality characteristics of cooked ham. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

From Ideas to Efficacy: The ORBIT Model for Developing Behavioral Treatments for Chronic Diseases

PubMed Central

Czajkowski, Susan M.; Powell, Lynda H.; Adler, Nancy; Naar-King, Sylvie; Reynolds, Kim D.; Hunter, Christine M.; Laraia, Barbara; Olster, Deborah H.; Perna, Frank M.; Peterson, Janey C.; Epel, Elissa; Boyington, Josephine E.; Charlson, Mary E.

2015-01-01

Objective Given the critical role of behavior in preventing and treating chronic diseases, it is important to accelerate the development of behavioral treatments that can improve chronic disease prevention and outcomes. Findings from basic behavioral and social science research hold great promise for addressing behaviorally-based clinical health problems, yet there is currently no established pathway for translating fundamental behavioral science discoveries into health-related treatments ready for Phase III efficacy testing. This article provides a systematic framework for guiding efforts to translate basic behavioral science findings into behavioral treatments for preventing and treating chronic illness. Methods The ORBIT model for behavioral treatment development is described as involving a flexible and progressive process, pre-specified clinically significant milestones for forward movement, and return to earlier stages for refinement and optimization. Results This article presents the background and rationale for the ORBIT model, a summary of key questions for each phase, a selection of study designs and methodologies well-suited to answering these questions, and pre-specified milestones for forward or backward movement across phases. Conclusions The ORBIT model provides a progressive, clinically-relevant approach to increasing the number of evidence-based behavioral treatments available to prevent and treat chronic diseases. PMID:25642841

Spatial and Temporal Variation in Primary Productivity (NDVI) of Coastal Alaskan Tundra: Decreased Vegetation Growth Following Earlier Snowmelt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gamon, John A.; Huemmrich, K. Fred; Stone, Robert S.; Tweedie, Craig E.

2015-01-01

In the Arctic, earlier snowmelt and longer growing seasons due to warming have been hypothesized to increase vegetation productivity. Using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from both field and satellite measurements as an indicator of vegetation phenology and productivity, we monitored spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation growth for a coastal wet sedge tundra site near Barrow, Alaska over three growing seasons (2000-2002). Contrary to expectation, earlier snowmelt did not lead to increased productivity. Instead, productivity was associated primarily with precipitation and soil moisture, and secondarily with growing degree days, which, during this period, led to reduced growth in years with earlier snowmelt. Additional moisture effects on productivity and species distribution, operating over a longer time scale, were evident in spatial NDVI patterns associated with microtopography. Lower, wetter regions dominated by graminoids were more productive than higher, drier locations having a higher percentage of lichens and mosses, despite the earlier snowmelt at the more elevated sites. These results call into question the oft-stated hypothesis that earlier arctic growing seasons will lead to greater vegetation productivity. Rather, they agree with an emerging body of evidence from recent field studies indicating that early-season, local environmental conditions, notably moisture and temperature, are primary factors determining arctic vegetation productivity. For this coastal arctic site, early growing season conditions are strongly influenced by microtopography, hydrology, and regional sea ice dynamics, and may not be easily predicted from snowmelt date or seasonal average air temperatures alone. Our comparison of field to satellite NDVI also highlights the value of in-situ monitoring of actual vegetation responses using field optical sampling to obtain detailed information on surface conditions not possible from satellite observations alone.

Earlier nesting by generalist predatory bird is associated with human responses to climate change.

PubMed

Smith, Shawn H; Steenhof, Karen; McClure, Christopher J W; Heath, Julie A

2017-01-01

Warming temperatures cause temporal changes in growing seasons and prey abundance that drive earlier breeding by birds, especially dietary specialists within homogeneous habitat. Less is known about how generalists respond to climate-associated shifts in growing seasons or prey phenology, which may occur at different rates across land cover types. We studied whether breeding phenology of a generalist predator, the American kestrel (Falco sparverius), was associated with shifts in growing seasons and, presumably, prey abundance, in a mosaic of non-irrigated shrub/grasslands and irrigated crops/pastures. We examined the relationship between remotely-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and abundance of small mammals that, with insects, constitute approximately 93% of kestrel diet biomass. We used NDVI to estimate the start of the growing season (SoGS) in irrigated and non-irrigated lands from 1992 to 2015 and tested whether either estimate of annual SoGS predicted the timing of kestrel nesting. Finally, we examined relationships among irrigated SoGS, weather and crop planting. NDVI was a useful proxy for kestrel prey because it predicted small mammal abundance and past studies showed that NDVI predicts insect abundance. NDVI-estimated SoGS advanced significantly in irrigated lands (β = -1·09 ± 0·30 SE) but not in non-irrigated lands (β = -0·57 ± 0·53). Average date of kestrel nesting advanced 15 days in the past 24 years and was positively associated with the SoGS in irrigated lands, but not the SoGS in non-irrigated lands. Advanced SoGS in irrigated lands was related to earlier planting of crops after relatively warm winters, which were more common in recent years. Despite different patterns of SoGS change between land cover types, kestrel nesting phenology shifted with earlier prey availability in irrigated lands. Kestrels may preferentially track prey in irrigated lands over non-irrigated lands because of higher quality prey on

Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Tidal Wave II Revisited: A Review of Earlier Enrollment Projections for California Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayward, Gerald C.; Breneman, David W.; Estrada, Leobardo F.

This report examined enrollment projections for higher education institutions in California in relation to earlier projections conducted in the mid-1990s that forecasted steep declines in enrollment. It notes that California's remarkable economic recovery over the last several years has allowed it to fund higher education enrollment growth at a…

Variations in a university subject pool as a function of earlier or later participation and self-report: a replication and extension.

PubMed

Bernard, Larry C; Walsh, R Patricia

2002-10-01

The present study replicated and extended earlier research on temporal sampling effects in university subject pools. Data were obtained from 236 participants, 79 men and 157 women, in a university subject pool during a 15-wk. semester. Without knowing the purpose of the study, participants self-selected to participate earlier (Weeks 4 and 5; n = 105) or later (Weeks 14 and 15; n = 131). Three hypotheses were investigated: (1) that the personality patterns of earlier and later participants on the NEO Personality Inventory-Revised and the Personality Research Form differ significantly, with earlier participants scoring higher on the latter scales reflecting social responsibility and higher on former Conscientiousness and Neuroticism scales; (2) that there are similar significant differences between participants in the earlier and later groups compared to the male and female college normative samples for the two tests: and (3) that earlier participants will have higher actual Scholastic Assessment Test scores and Grade Point Averages. Also investigated was whether participants' foreknowledge that their actual Scholastic Assessment Test scores and Grade Point Averages would be obtained would affect their accuracy of self-report. In contrast to prior research, neither the first nor second hypothesis was supported by the current study; there do not appear to be consistent differences on personality variables. However, the third hypothesis was supported. Earlier participants had higher actual high school Grade Point Average, college Grade Point Average, and Scholastic Assessment Test Verbal scores. Foreknowledge that actual Scholastic Assessment Test scores and Grade Point Averages would be obtained did not affect the accuracy of self-report. In addition, later participants significantly over-reported their scores, and significantly more women than men and more first-year than senior-year subjects participated in the early group.

Blaney-Morin-Nigeria evapotranspiration model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duru, J. Obiukwu

1984-02-01

An evapotranspiration model which parallels that proposed earlier by Blaney and Morin has been developed for application in Nigeria. The model, designated as the Blaney-Morin-Nigeria evapotranspiration model, predicts potential evapotranspiration with accuracy and consistency that are better than the Penman model, under Nigerian conditions. It is suggested that the Blaney-Morin evapotranspiration concept may have similar potential elsewhere when given specific form with appropriate constants derived to reflect climatic peculiarities.

The development of an integrated care model for patients with severe or very severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): the COPD-Home model.

PubMed

Sunde, Synnøve; Walstad, Rolf Aksel; Bentsen, Signe Berit; Lunde, Solfrid J; Wangen, Eva Marie; Rustøen, Tone; Henriksen, Anne Hildur

2014-09-01

Adherence to guidelines for managing stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and its exacerbations is inadequate among healthcare workers and patients. An appropriate care model would meet patient needs, enhance their coping with COPD and improve their quality of life (QOL). This study aims to present the 'COPD-Home' as an integrated care model for patients with severe or very severe COPD. One principle of the COPD-Home model is that hospital treatment should lead to follow up in the patient's home. The model also includes education, improved coordination of levels of care, improved accessibility and a management plan. One of the main elements of the COPD-Home model is the clear role of the home-care nurse. Model development is based on earlier research and clinical experience. It comprises: (i) education provided through an education programme for patients and involved nurses, (ii) joint visits and telephone checks, (iii) a call centre for support and communication with a general practitioner and (iv) an individualised self-management plan including home monitoring and a plan for pharmacological and nonpharmacological interventions. The COPD-Home model attempts to cultivate competences and behaviours of patients and community nurses that better accord with guidelines for interventions. The next step in its development will be to evaluate its ability to assist both healthcare workers and planners to improve the management of COPD, reduce exacerbations and improve QOL and coping among patients with COPD. © 2013 Nordic College of Caring Science.

Clinical presentation of retinoblastoma in Alexandria: A step toward earlier diagnosis.

PubMed

Soliman, Sameh E; Eldomiaty, Wesam; Goweida, Mohamed B; Dowidar, Amgad

2017-01-01

To evaluate the clinical presentation of retinoblastoma in Alexandria, Egypt, correlate the timing of accurate diagnosis with the presence of advanced disease and identify causes of delayed presentation. Retrospective noncomparative single institution study reviews demographic and clinical data of all new children with retinoblastoma presenting to Alexandria Main University ocular oncology clinic (OOC) from January 2012 to June 2014. Diagnosis time was from initial parental complaint to retinoblastoma diagnosis and referral time was from retinoblastoma diagnosis to presentation to the Alexandria OCC. Delayed Diagnosis and referral were counted if >2 weeks. Advanced presentation is defined as clinical TNMH (8th edition) staging of cT2 or cT3 (international intraocular retinoblastoma classification group D or E) in at least one eye or the presence of extra-ocular disease (cT4). Seventy eyes of 47 children were eligible: 52% unilateral, 7% with family history and 96% presented with leukocorea. Sixty-four percent of children had advanced intraocular disease and none had extra-ocular disease. Delayed presentation occurred in 58% of children and was significantly associated with advanced disease in both unilaterally and bilaterally affected children (p = 0.003, 0.002 respectively). The delay in diagnosis was more in unilateral cases while the delay in referral was more in bilateral cases. The main cause of delayed presentation in unilateral retinoblastoma was misdiagnosis (30%) while parental shopping for second medical opinion (30%) was the main cause in bilateral children. Delayed diagnosis is a problem affecting retinoblastoma management. Better medical education and training, health education and earlier screening are recommended to achieve earlier diagnosis.

The dual process model of coping with bereavement: a decade on.

PubMed

Stroebe, Margaret; Schut, Henk

2010-01-01

The Dual Process Model of Coping with Bereavement (DPM; Stroebe & Schut, 1999) is described in this article. The rationale is given as to why this model was deemed necessary and how it was designed to overcome limitations of earlier models of adaptive coping with loss. Although building on earlier theoretical formulations, it contrasts with other models along a number of dimensions which are outlined. In addition to describing the basic parameters of the DPM, theoretical and empirical developments that have taken place since the original publication of the model are summarized. Guidelines for future research are given focusing on principles that should be followed to put the model to stringent empirical test.

Dynamic Self-Organization and Early Lexical Development in Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Ping; Zhao, Xiaowei; Whinney, Brian Mac

2007-01-01

In this study we present a self-organizing connectionist model of early lexical development. We call this model DevLex-II, based on the earlier DevLex model. DevLex-II can simulate a variety of empirical patterns in children's acquisition of words. These include a clear vocabulary spurt, effects of word frequency and length on age of acquisition,…

A new model for the calculation and prediction of solar proton fluences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feynman, Joan; Gabriel, Stephen B.

1990-01-01

A new predictive engineering model for the energy greater than 10 MeV and greater than 30 MeV solar proton environment at earth is reviewed. The data used are from observations made from 1956 through 1985. In this data set, the distinction between 'ordinary events' and 'anomalously large events' that was required in earlier models disappeared. This permitted the use of statistical analysis methods developed for ordinary events on the entire data set. The greater than 10-MeV fluences with the new model are about twice those expected on the basis of earlier models. At energies greater than 30 MeV, the old and new models agree.

Factors associated with late diagnosis of HIV infection and missed opportunities for earlier testing.

PubMed

Gullón, Alejandra; Verdejo, José; de Miguel, Rosa; Gómez, Ana; Sanz, Jesús

2016-10-01

Late diagnosis (LD) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection continues to be a significant problem that increases disease burden both for patients and for the public health system. Guidelines have been updated in order to facilitate earlier HIV diagnosis, introducing "indicator condition-guided HIV testing". In this study, we analysed the frequency of LD and associated risk factors. We retrospectively identified those cases that could be considered missed opportunities for an earlier diagnosis. All patients newly diagnosed with HIV infection who attended Hospital La Princesa, Madrid (Spain) between 2007 and 2014 were analysed. We collected epidemiological, clinical and immunological data. We also reviewed electronic medical records from the year before the HIV diagnosis to search for medical consultations due to clinical indicators. HIV infection was diagnosed in 354 patients. The median CD4 count at presentation was 352 cells/mm(3). Overall, 158 patients (50%) met the definition of LD, and 97 (30.7%) the diagnosis of advanced disease. LD was associated with older age and was more frequent amongst immigrants. Heterosexual relations and injection drug use were more likely to be the reasons for LD than relations between men who have sex with men. During the year preceding the diagnosis, 46.6% of the patients had sought medical advice owing to the presence of clinical indicators that should have led to HIV testing. Of those, 24 cases (14.5%) were classified as missed opportunities for earlier HIV diagnosis because testing was not performed. According to these results, all health workers should pursue early HIV diagnosis through the proper implementation of HIV testing guidelines. Such an approach would prove directly beneficial to the patient and indirectly beneficial to the general population through the reduction in the risk of transmission.

Development and evaluation of an ammonia bidirectional flux parameterization for air quality models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pleim, Jonathan E.; Bash, Jesse O.; Walker, John T.; Cooter, Ellen J.

2013-05-01

is an important contributor to particulate matter in the atmosphere and can significantly impact terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Surface exchange between the atmosphere and biosphere is a key part of the ammonia cycle. New modeling techniques are being developed for use in air quality models that replace current ammonia emissions from fertilized crops and ammonia dry deposition with a bidirectional surface flux model including linkage to a detailed biogeochemical and farm management model. Recent field studies involving surface flux measurements over crops that predominate in North America have been crucial for extending earlier bidirectional flux models toward more realistic treatment of NH3 fluxes for croplands. Comparisons of the ammonia bidirection flux algorithm to both lightly fertilized soybeans and heavily fertilized corn demonstrate that the model can capture the magnitude and dynamics of observed ammonia fluxes, both net deposition and evasion, over a range of conditions with overall biases on the order of the uncertainty of the measurements. However, successful application to the field experiment in heavily fertilized corn required substantial modification of the model to include new parameterizations for in-soil diffusion resistance, ground quasi-laminar boundary layer resistance, and revised cuticular resistance that is dependent on in-canopy NH3 concentration and RH at the leaf surface. This new bidirectional flux algorithm has been incorporated in an air quality modeling system, which also includes an implementation of a soil nitrification model.

Develop a Model Component

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ensey, Tyler S.

2013-01-01

During my internship at NASA, I was a model developer for Ground Support Equipment (GSE). The purpose of a model developer is to develop and unit test model component libraries (fluid, electrical, gas, etc.). The models are designed to simulate software for GSE (Ground Special Power, Crew Access Arm, Cryo, Fire and Leak Detection System, Environmental Control System (ECS), etc. .) before they are implemented into hardware. These models support verifying local control and remote software for End-Item Software Under Test (SUT). The model simulates the physical behavior (function, state, limits and 110) of each end-item and it's dependencies as defined in the Subsystem Interface Table, Software Requirements & Design Specification (SRDS), Ground Integrated Schematic (GIS), and System Mechanical Schematic.(SMS). The software of each specific model component is simulated through MATLAB's Simulink program. The intensiv model development life cycle is a.s follows: Identify source documents; identify model scope; update schedule; preliminary design review; develop model requirements; update model.. scope; update schedule; detailed design review; create/modify library component; implement library components reference; implement subsystem components; develop a test script; run the test script; develop users guide; send model out for peer review; the model is sent out for verifictionlvalidation; if there is empirical data, a validation data package is generated; if there is not empirical data, a verification package is generated; the test results are then reviewed; and finally, the user. requests accreditation, and a statement of accreditation is prepared. Once each component model is reviewed and approved, they are intertwined together into one integrated model. This integrated model is then tested itself, through a test script and autotest, so that it can be concluded that all models work conjointly, for a single purpose. The component I was assigned, specifically, was a

The evaluation of clinical and cost outcomes associated with earlier initiation of insulin in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Smolen, Harry J; Murphy, Daniel R; Gahn, James C; Yu, Xueting; Curtis, Bradley H

2014-09-01

The treatment for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) follows a stepwise progression. As a treatment loses its effectiveness, it is typically replaced with a more complex and frequently more costly treatment. Eventually this progression leads to the use of basal insulin typically with concomitant treatments (e.g., metformin, a GLP-1 RA [glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist], a TZD [thiazolidinedione] or a DPP-4i [dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor]) and, ultimately, to basal-bolus insulin in some forms. As the cost of oral antidiabetics (OADs) and noninsulin injectables have approached, and in some cases exceeded, the cost of insulin, we reexamined the placement of insulin in T2DM treatment progression. Our hypothesis was that earlier use of insulin produces clinical and cost benefits due to its superior efficacy and treatment scalability at an acceptable cost when considered over a 5-year period. To (a) estimate clinical and payer cost outcomes of initiating insulin treatment for patients with T2DM earlier in their treatment progression and (b) estimate clinical and payer cost outcomes resulting from delays in escalating treatment for T2DM when indicated by patient hemoglobin A1c levels. We developed a Monte Carlo microsimulation model to estimate patients reaching target A1c, diabetes-related complications, mortality, and associated costs under various treatment strategies for newly diagnosed patients with T2DM. Treatment efficacies were modeled from results of randomized clinical trials, including the time and rate of A1c drift. A typical treatment progression was selected based on the American Diabetes Association and the European Association for the Study of Diabetes guidelines as the standard of care (SOC). Two treatment approaches were evaluated: two-stage insulin (basal plus antidiabetics followed by biphasic plus metformin) and single-stage insulin (biphasic plus metformin). For each approach, we analyzed multiple strategies. For each analysis

Return of hunger following a relatively high carbohydrate breakfast is associated with earlier recorded glucose peak and nadir

PubMed Central

Chandler-Laney, Paula C.; Morrison, Shannon A.; Goree, Laura Lee T.; Ellis, Amy C.; Casazza, Krista; Desmond, Renee; Gower, Barbara A

2014-01-01

Objective To test the hypothesis that a breakfast meal with high carbohydrate/ low fat results in an earlier increase in postprandial glucose and insulin, a greater decrease below baseline in postprandial glucose, and an earlier return of appetite, compared to a low carbohydrate/high fat meal. Design Overweight but otherwise healthy adults (n=64) were maintained on one of two eucaloric diets: high carbohydrate/low fat (HC/LF; 55:27:18% kcals from carbohydrate: fat: protein) versus low carbohydrate/high fat (LC/HF; 43:39:18% kcals from carbohydrate: fat: protein). After 4 weeks of acclimation to the diets, participants underwent a meal test during which circulating glucose and insulin and self-reported hunger and fullness, were measured before and after consumption of breakfast from their assigned diets. Results The LC/HF meal resulted in a later time at the highest and lowest recorded glucose, higher glucose concentrations at 3 and 4 hours post-meal, and lower insulin incremental area under the curve. Participants consuming the LC/HF meal reported lower appetite 3 and 4 hours following the meal, a response that was associated with the timing of the highest and lowest recorded glucose. Conclusions Modest increases in meal carbohydrate content at the expense of fat content may facilitate weight gain over the long-term by contributing to an earlier rise and fall of postprandial glucose concentrations and an earlier return of appetite. PMID:24819342

Cost-Effectiveness of Earlier Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy for Uninsured HIV-Infected Adults

PubMed Central

Schackman, Bruce R.; Goldie, Sue J.; Weinstein, Milton C.; Losina, Elena; Zhang, Hong; Freedberg, Kenneth A.

2001-01-01

Objectives. This study was designed to examine the societal cost-effectiveness and the impact on government payers of earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy for uninsured HIV-infected adults. Methods. A state-transition simulation model of HIV disease was used. Data were derived from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, published randomized trials, and medical care cost estimates for all government payers and for Massachusetts, New York, and Florida. Results. Quality-adjusted life expectancy increased from 7.64 years with therapy initiated at 200 CD4 cells/μL to 8.21 years with therapy initiated at 500 CD4 cells/μL. Initiating therapy at 500 CD4/μL was a more efficient use of resources than initiating therapy at 200 CD4/μL and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $17 300 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, compared with no therapy. Costs to state payers in the first 5 years ranged from $5500 to $24 900 because of differences among the states in the availability of federal funds for AIDS drug assistance programs. Conclusions. Antiretroviral therapy initiated at 500 CD4 cells/μL is cost-effective from a societal perspective compared with therapy initiated later. States should consider Medicaid waivers to expand access to early therapy. PMID:11527782

Metamorphosis Is Ancestral for Crown Euarthropods, and Evolved in the Cambrian or Earlier.

PubMed

Wolfe, Joanna M

2017-09-01

Macroevolutionary developmental biology employs fossilized ontogenetic data and phylogenetic comparative methods to probe the evolution of development at ancient nodes. Despite the prevalence of ecologically differentiated larval forms in marine invertebrates, it has been frequently presumed that the ancestors of arthropods were direct developers, and that metamorphosis may not have evolved until the Ordovician or later. Using fossils and new dated phylogenies, I infer that metamorphosis was likely ancestral for crown arthropods, contradicting this assumption. Based on a published morphological dataset encompassing 217 exceptionally preserved fossil and 96 extant taxa, fossils were directly incorporated into both the topology and age estimates, as in "tip dating" analyses. Using data from post-embryonic fossils representing 25 species throughout stem and crown arthropod lineages (as well as most of the 96 extant taxa), characters for metamorphosis were assigned based on inferred ecological changes in development (e.g., changes in habitat and adaptive landscape). Under all phylogenetic hypotheses, metamorphosis was supported as most likely ancestral to both ecdysozoans and euarthropods. Care must be taken to account for potential drastic post-embryonic morphological changes in evolutionary analyses. Many stem group euarthrpods may have had ecologically differentiated larval stages that did not preserve in the fossil record. Moreover, a complex life cycle and planktonic ecology may have evolved in the Ediacaran or earlier, and may have typified the pre-Cambrian explosion "wormworld" prior to the origin of crown group euarthropods. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Development of multi-metal interaction model for Daphnia magna: Significance of metallothionein in cellular redistribution.

PubMed

Wang, Xiangrui; Liu, Jianyu; Tan, Qiaoguo; Ren, Jinqian; Liang, Dingyuan; Fan, Wenhong

2018-04-30

Despite the great progress made in metal-induced toxicity mechanisms, a critical knowledge gap still exists in predicting adverse effects of heavy metals on living organisms in the natural environment, particularly during exposure to multi-metals. In this study, a multi-metal interaction model of Daphnia manga was developed in an effort to provide reasonable explanations regarding the joint effects resulting from exposure to multi-metals. Metallothionein (MT), a widely used biomarker, was selected. In this model, MT was supposed to play the role of a crucial transfer protein rather than detoxifying protein. Therefore, competitive complexation of metals to MT could highly affect the cellular metal redistribution. Thus, competitive complexation of MT in D. magna with metals like Pb 2+ , Cd 2+ and Cu 2+ was qualitatively studied. The results suggested that Cd 2+ had the highest affinity towards MT, followed by Pb 2+ and Cu 2+ . On the other hand, the combination of MT with Cu 2+ appeared to alter its structure which resulted in higher affinity towards Pb 2+ . Overall, the predicted bioaccumulation of metals under multi-metal exposure was consisted with earlier reported studies. This model provided an alternative angle for joint effect through a combination of kinetic process and internal interactions, which could help to develop future models predicting toxicity to multi-metal exposure. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Detection, attribution, and sensitivity of trends toward earlier streamflow in the Sierra Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maurer, E.P.; Stewart, I.T.; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, P.B.; Cayan, D.

2007-01-01

Observed changes in the timing of snowmelt dominated streamflow in the western United States are often linked to anthropogenic or other external causes. We assess whether observed streamflow timing changes can be statistically attributed to external forcing, or whether they still lie within the bounds of natural (internal) variability for four large Sierra Nevada (CA) basins, at inflow points to major reservoirs. Streamflow timing is measured by "center timing" (CT), the day when half the annual flow has passed a given point. We use a physically based hydrology model driven by meteorological input from a global climate model to quantify the natural variability in CT trends. Estimated 50-year trends in CT due to natural climate variability often exceed estimated actual CT trends from 1950 to 1999. Thus, although observed trends in CT to date may be statistically significant, they cannot yet be statistically attributed to external influences on climate. We estimate that projected CT changes at the four major reservoir inflows will, with 90% confidence, exceed those from natural variability within 1-4 decades or 4-8 decades, depending on rates of future greenhouse gas emissions. To identify areas most likely to exhibit CT changes in response to rising temperatures, we calculate changes in CT under temperature increases from 1 to 5??. We find that areas with average winter temperatures between -2??C and -4??C are most likely to respond with significant CT shifts. Correspondingly, elevations from 2000 to 2800 in are most sensitive to temperature increases, with CT changes exceeding 45 days (earlier) relative to 1961-1990. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Risk Prediction Models for Other Cancers or Multiple Sites

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing other multiple cancers over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Deformation strain is the main physical driver for skeletal precursors to undergo osteogenesis in earlier stages of osteogenic cell maturation.

PubMed

Ramani-Mohan, Ram-Kumar; Schwedhelm, Ivo; Finne-Wistrand, Anna; Krug, Melanie; Schwarz, Thomas; Jakob, Franz; Walles, Heike; Hansmann, Jan

2018-03-01

Mesenchymal stem cells play a major role during bone remodelling and are thus of high interest for tissue engineering and regenerative medicine applications. Mechanical stimuli, that is, deformation strain and interstitial fluid-flow-induced shear stress, promote osteogenic lineage commitment. However, the predominant physical stimulus that drives early osteogenic cell maturation is not clearly identified. The evaluation of each stimulus is challenging, as deformation and fluid-flow-induced shear stress interdepend. In this study, we developed a bioreactor that was used to culture mesenchymal stem cells harbouring a strain-responsive AP-1 luciferase reporter construct, on porous scaffolds. In addition to the reporter, mineralization and vitality of the cells was investigated by alizarin red staining and 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide. Quantification of the expression of genes associated to bone regeneration and bone remodelling was used to confirm alizarin red measurements. Controlled perfusion and deformation of the 3-dimensional scaffold facilitated the alteration of the expression of osteogenic markers, luciferase activity, and calcification. To isolate the specific impact of scaffold deformation, a computational model was developed to derive a perfusion flow profile that results in dynamic shear stress conditions present in periodically loaded scaffolds. In comparison to actually deformed scaffolds, a lower expression of all measured readout parameters indicated that deformation strain is the predominant stimulus for skeletal precursors to undergo osteogenesis in earlier stages of osteogenic cell maturation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Validation of a predictive model that identifies patients at high risk of developing febrile neutropaenia following chemotherapy for breast cancer.

PubMed

Jenkins, P; Scaife, J; Freeman, S

2012-07-01

We have previously developed a predictive model that identifies patients at increased risk of febrile neutropaenia (FN) following chemotherapy, based on pretreatment haematological indices. This study was designed to validate our earlier findings in a separate cohort of patients undergoing more myelosuppressive chemotherapy supported by growth factors. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 263 patients who had been treated with adjuvant docetaxel, adriamycin and cyclophosphamide (TAC) chemotherapy for breast cancer. All patients received prophylactic pegfilgrastim and the majority also received prophylactic antibiotics. Thirty-one patients (12%) developed FN. Using our previous model, patients in the highest risk group (pretreatment absolute neutrophil count≤3.1 10(9)/l and absolute lymphocyte count≤1.5 10(9)/l) comprised 8% of the total population and had a 33% risk of developing FN. Compared with the rest of the cohort, this group had a 3.4-fold increased risk of developing FN (P=0.001) and a 5.2-fold increased risk of cycle 1 FN (P<0.001). A simple model based on pretreatment differential white blood cell count can be applied to pegfilgrastim-supported patients to identify those who are at higher risk of FN.

Developing photoreceptor-based models of visual attraction in riverine tsetse, for use in the engineering of more-attractive polyester fabrics for control devices.

PubMed

Santer, Roger D

2017-03-01

Riverine tsetse transmit the parasites that cause the most prevalent form of human African trypanosomiasis, Gambian HAT. In response to the imperative for cheap and efficient tsetse control, insecticide-treated 'tiny targets' have been developed through refinement of tsetse attractants based on blue fabric panels. However, modern blue polyesters used for this purpose attract many less tsetse than traditional phthalogen blue cottons. Therefore, colour engineering polyesters for improved attractiveness has great potential for tiny target development. Because flies have markedly different photoreceptor spectral sensitivities from humans, and the responses of these photoreceptors provide the inputs to their visually guided behaviours, it is essential that polyester colour engineering be guided by fly photoreceptor-based explanations of tsetse attraction. To this end, tsetse attraction to differently coloured fabrics was recently modelled using the calculated excitations elicited in a generic set of fly photoreceptors as predictors. However, electrophysiological data from tsetse indicate the potential for modified spectral sensitivities versus the generic pattern, and processing of fly photoreceptor responses within segregated achromatic and chromatic channels has long been hypothesised. Thus, I constructed photoreceptor-based models explaining the attraction of G. f. fuscipes to differently coloured tiny targets recorded in a previously published investigation, under differing assumptions about tsetse spectral sensitivities and organisation of visual processing. Models separating photoreceptor responses into achromatic and chromatic channels explained attraction better than earlier models combining weighted photoreceptor responses in a single mechanism, regardless of the spectral sensitivities assumed. However, common principles for fabric colour engineering were evident across the complete set of models examined, and were consistent with earlier work. Tools for the

Developing photoreceptor-based models of visual attraction in riverine tsetse, for use in the engineering of more-attractive polyester fabrics for control devices

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Riverine tsetse transmit the parasites that cause the most prevalent form of human African trypanosomiasis, Gambian HAT. In response to the imperative for cheap and efficient tsetse control, insecticide-treated ‘tiny targets’ have been developed through refinement of tsetse attractants based on blue fabric panels. However, modern blue polyesters used for this purpose attract many less tsetse than traditional phthalogen blue cottons. Therefore, colour engineering polyesters for improved attractiveness has great potential for tiny target development. Because flies have markedly different photoreceptor spectral sensitivities from humans, and the responses of these photoreceptors provide the inputs to their visually guided behaviours, it is essential that polyester colour engineering be guided by fly photoreceptor-based explanations of tsetse attraction. To this end, tsetse attraction to differently coloured fabrics was recently modelled using the calculated excitations elicited in a generic set of fly photoreceptors as predictors. However, electrophysiological data from tsetse indicate the potential for modified spectral sensitivities versus the generic pattern, and processing of fly photoreceptor responses within segregated achromatic and chromatic channels has long been hypothesised. Thus, I constructed photoreceptor-based models explaining the attraction of G. f. fuscipes to differently coloured tiny targets recorded in a previously published investigation, under differing assumptions about tsetse spectral sensitivities and organisation of visual processing. Models separating photoreceptor responses into achromatic and chromatic channels explained attraction better than earlier models combining weighted photoreceptor responses in a single mechanism, regardless of the spectral sensitivities assumed. However, common principles for fabric colour engineering were evident across the complete set of models examined, and were consistent with earlier work. Tools for

Changing facial phenotype in Cohen syndrome: towards clues for an earlier diagnosis.

PubMed

El Chehadeh-Djebbar, Salima; Blair, Edward; Holder-Espinasse, Muriel; Moncla, Anne; Frances, Anne-Marie; Rio, Marlène; Debray, François-Guillaume; Rump, Patrick; Masurel-Paulet, Alice; Gigot, Nadège; Callier, Patrick; Duplomb, Laurence; Aral, Bernard; Huet, Frédéric; Thauvin-Robinet, Christel; Faivre, Laurence

2013-07-01

Cohen syndrome (CS) is a rare autosomal recessive condition caused by mutations and/or large rearrangements in the VPS13B gene. CS clinical features, including developmental delay, the typical facial gestalt, chorioretinal dystrophy (CRD) and neutropenia, are well described. CS diagnosis is generally raised after school age, when visual disturbances lead to CRD diagnosis and to VPS13B gene testing. This relatively late diagnosis precludes accurate genetic counselling. The aim of this study was to analyse the evolution of CS facial features in the early period of life, particularly before school age (6 years), to find clues for an earlier diagnosis. Photographs of 17 patients with molecularly confirmed CS were analysed, from birth to preschool age. By comparing their facial phenotype when growing, we show that there are no special facial characteristics before 1 year. However, between 2 and 6 years, CS children already share common facial features such as a short neck, a square face with micrognathia and full cheeks, a hypotonic facial appearance, epicanthic folds, long ears with an everted upper part of the auricle and/or a prominent lobe, a relatively short philtrum, a small and open mouth with downturned corners, a thick lower lip and abnormal eye shapes. These early transient facial features evolve to typical CS facial features with aging. These observations emphasize the importance of ophthalmological tests and neutrophil count in children in preschool age presenting with developmental delay, hypotonia and the facial features we described here, for an earlier CS diagnosis.

Radiation Environment Modeling for Spacecraft Design: New Model Developments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Janet; Xapsos, Mike; Lauenstein, Jean-Marie; Ladbury, Ray

2006-01-01

A viewgraph presentation on various new space radiation environment models for spacecraft design is described. The topics include: 1) The Space Radiatio Environment; 2) Effects of Space Environments on Systems; 3) Space Radiatio Environment Model Use During Space Mission Development and Operations; 4) Space Radiation Hazards for Humans; 5) "Standard" Space Radiation Environment Models; 6) Concerns about Standard Models; 7) Inadequacies of Current Models; 8) Development of New Models; 9) New Model Developments: Proton Belt Models; 10) Coverage of New Proton Models; 11) Comparison of TPM-1, PSB97, AP-8; 12) New Model Developments: Electron Belt Models; 13) Coverage of New Electron Models; 14) Comparison of "Worst Case" POLE, CRESELE, and FLUMIC Models with the AE-8 Model; 15) New Model Developments: Galactic Cosmic Ray Model; 16) Comparison of NASA, MSU, CIT Models with ACE Instrument Data; 17) New Model Developmemts: Solar Proton Model; 18) Comparison of ESP, JPL91, KIng/Stassinopoulos, and PSYCHIC Models; 19) New Model Developments: Solar Heavy Ion Model; 20) Comparison of CREME96 to CREDO Measurements During 2000 and 2002; 21) PSYCHIC Heavy ion Model; 22) Model Standardization; 23) Working Group Meeting on New Standard Radiation Belt and Space Plasma Models; and 24) Summary.

Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

2018-05-01

Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

Complementary functions of the two brain hemispheres: comparisons with earlier conceptions and implications for individual and society.

PubMed

Zeier, H

1989-07-01

The concept of different functions for the left and right cerebral hemispheres coincides in an astonishing way with earlier philosophical and psychological work which divided the human mind into two complementary functions without having a neurophysiological explanation. Representative are the ideas of Fichte, Hegel and Jung. The latter postulated the two subsystems Ego and Self and associated the conscious functions of the Ego with the intellect, the capacity for rational thought, and the Self with the mind, which also includes the emotional feelings. For the harmonic development and self-realization of man the functions of both systems in complementary interaction are required. Therefore, the current overaccentuation of the intellect and of progress directed technical-scientific thinking should be corrected by making better use of the much neglected functions of the right hemisphere.

Retrospective study of reasons for improved survival in patients with breast cancer in east Anglia: earlier diagnosis or better treatment.

PubMed Central

Stockton, D.; Davies, T.; Day, N.; McCann, J.

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the recent fall in mortality from breast cancer in England and Wales, and to determine the relative contributions of improvements in treatment and earlier detection of tumours. DESIGN: Retrospective study of all women with breast cancer registered by the East Anglian cancer registry and diagnosed between 1982 and 1989. SUBJECTS: 3965 patients diagnosed 1982-5 compared with 4665 patients diagnosed 1986-9, in three age groups 0-49, 50-64, > or = 65 years, with information on stage at diagnosis and survival. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Three year relative survival rates by time period, age group, and stage; relative hazard ratios for each time period and age group derived from Cox's proportional hazards model, adjusted for single year of age and stage. RESULTS: Survival improved in the later time period, although there was little stage specific improvement. The proportion of early stage tumours increased especially in the 50-64 year age group, and adjustment for stage accounted for over half of the improvement in survival in women aged under 65 years. CONCLUSION: Over half of the drop in mortality in women aged under 65 years seems to be attributable to earlier detection of tumours, which has been observed since the mid-1980s. This could have resulted from an increase in breast awareness predating the start of the breast screening programme. PMID:9056796

Colorectal cancer occurs earlier in those exposed to tobacco smoke: implications for screening

PubMed Central

Mahoney, Martin C.; Cummings, K. Michael; Michalek, Arthur M.; Reid, Mary E.; Moysich, Kirsten B.; Hyland, Andrew

2011-01-01

Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in the USA. While various lifestyle factors have been shown to alter the risk for colorectal cancer, recommendations for the early detection of CRC are based only on age and family history. Methods This case-only study examined the age at diagnosis of colorectal cancer in subjects exposed to tobacco smoke. Subjects included all patients who attended RPCI between 1957 and 1997, diagnosed with colorectal cancer, and completed an epidemiologic questionnaire. Adjusted linear regression models were calculated for the various smoking exposures. Results Of the 3,540 cases of colorectal cancer, current smokers demonstrated the youngest age of CRC onset (never: 64.2 vs. current: 57.4, P < 0.001) compared to never smokers, followed by recent former smokers. Among never smokers, individuals with past second-hand smoke exposure were diagnosed at a significantly younger age compared to the unexposed. Conclusion This study found that individuals with heavy, long-term tobacco smoke exposure were significantly younger at the time of CRC diagnosis compared to lifelong never smokers. The implication of this finding is that screening for colorectal cancer, which is recommended to begin at age 50 years for persons at average risk should be initiated 5–10 years earlier for persons with a significant lifetime history of exposure to tobacco smoke. PMID:18264728

Accounting for Co-Teaching: A Guide for Policymakers and Developers of Value-Added Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Isenberg, Eric; Walsh, Elias

2015-01-01

We outline the options available to policymakers for addressing co-teaching in a value-added model. Building on earlier work, we propose an improvement to a method of accounting for co-teaching that treats co-teachers as teams, with each teacher receiving equal credit for co-taught students. Hock and Isenberg (2012) described a method known as the…

Developing A Model for Lake Ice Phenology Using Satellite Remote Sensing Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skoglund, S. K.; Weathers, K. C.; Norouzi, H.; Prakash, S.; Ewing, H. A.

2017-12-01

Many northern temperate freshwater lakes are freezing over later and thawing earlier. This shift in timing, and the resulting shorter duration of seasonal ice cover, is expected to impact ecological processes, negatively affecting aquatic species and the quality of water we drink. Long-term, direct observations have been used to analyze changes in ice phenology, but those data are sparse relative to the number of lakes affected. Here we develop a model to utilize remote sensing data in approximating the dates of ice-on and ice-off for many years over a variety of lakes. Day and night surface temperatures from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Aqua and Terra (MYD11A1 and MOD11A1 data products) for 2002-2017 were utilized in combination with observed ice-on and ice-off dates of Lake Auburn, Maine, to determine the ability of MODIS data to match ground-based observations. A moving average served to interpolate MODIS temperature data to fill data gaps from cloudy days. The nighttime data were used for ice-off, and the daytime measurements were used for ice-on predictions to avoid fluctuations between day and night ice/water status. The 0˚C intercepts of those data were used to mark approximate days of ice-on or ice-off. This revealed that approximations for ice-off dates were satisfactory (average ±8.2 days) for Lake Auburn as well as for Lake Sunapee, New Hampshire (average ±8.1 days), while approximations for Lake Auburn ice-on were less accurate and showed consistently earlier-than-observed ice-on dates (average -33.8 days). The comparison of observed and remotely sensed Lake Auburn ice cover duration showed relative agreement with a correlation coefficient of 0.46. Other remote sensing observations, such as the new GOES-R satellite, and further exploration of the ice formation process can improve ice-on approximation methods. The model shows promise for estimating ice-on, ice-off, and ice cover duration for northern temperate lakes.

Empirical support for global integrated assessment modeling: Productivity trends and technological change in developing countries' agriculture and electric power sectors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sathaye, Jayant A.

2000-04-01

Integrated assessment (IA) modeling of climate policy is increasingly global in nature, with models incorporating regional disaggregation. The existing empirical basis for IA modeling, however, largely arises from research on industrialized economies. Given the growing importance of developing countries in determining long-term global energy and carbon emissions trends, filling this gap with improved statistical information on developing countries' energy and carbon-emissions characteristics is an important priority for enhancing IA modeling. Earlier research at LBNL on this topic has focused on assembling and analyzing statistical data on productivity trends and technological change in the energy-intensive manufacturing sectors of five developing countries,more » India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, and South Korea. The proposed work will extend this analysis to the agriculture and electric power sectors in India, South Korea, and two other developing countries. They will also examine the impact of alternative model specifications on estimates of productivity growth and technological change for each of the three sectors, and estimate the contribution of various capital inputs--imported vs. indigenous, rigid vs. malleable-- in contributing to productivity growth and technological change. The project has already produced a data resource on the manufacturing sector which is being shared with IA modelers. This will be extended to the agriculture and electric power sectors, which would also be made accessible to IA modeling groups seeking to enhance the empirical descriptions of developing country characteristics. The project will entail basic statistical and econometric analysis of productivity and energy trends in these developing country sectors, with parameter estimates also made available to modeling groups. The parameter estimates will be developed using alternative model specifications that could be directly utilized by the existing IAMs for the manufacturing

5 CFR Appendix A to Subpart C of... - Present Value Conversion Factors for Earlier Commencing Date of Annuities of Current and Former...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Present Value Conversion Factors for Earlier Commencing Date of Annuities of Current and Former Spouses of Deceased Separated Employees A...—Present Value Conversion Factors for Earlier Commencing Date of Annuities of Current and Former Spouses of...

Organized screening detects breast cancer at earlier stage regardless of molecular phenotype.

PubMed

Holloway, Claire M B; Jiang, Li; Whitehead, Marlo; Racz, Jennifer M; Groome, Patti A

2018-06-16

Mortality reduction attributable to organized breast screening is modest. Screening may be less effective at detecting more aggressive cancers at an earlier stage. This study was conducted to determine the relative efficacy of screening mammography to detect cancers at an earlier stage by molecular phenotype. We identified 2882 women with primary invasive breast cancer diagnosed between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2012 and who had a mammogram through the Ontario Breast Screening Program in the 28 months before diagnosis. Five tumor phenotypes were defined by expression of estrogen (ER) and progesterone (PR) receptors and HER2/neu oncogene. We conducted univariable and multivariable analyses to describe the predictors of detection as an interval cancer. Additional analyses identified predictors of detection at stages II, III, or IV compared with stage I, by phenotype. Analyses were adjusted for the effects of age, grade, and breast density. ER negative and HER2 positive tumors were over-represented among interval cancers, and triple negative cancers were more likely than ER +/HER2 - cancers to be detected as interval cancers OR 2.5 (95% CI 2.0-3.2, p < 0.0001). Method of detection (interval vs. screen) and molecular phenotype were independently associated with stage at diagnosis (p < 0.0001), but there was no interaction between method of detection and phenotype (p = 0.44). In a screened population, triple negative and HER2 + breast cancers are diagnosed at a higher stage but this appears to be due to higher growth rates of these tumors rather than a relative inability of screening to detect them.

Mars Gravity Field Model Development from Mars Global Surveyor Tracking Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lemoine, F. G.; Zuber, M. T.

1999-01-01

Since Feb. 99 the MGS spacecraft has been in a near circular orbit at about 400 km altitude. The MGS has been regularly tracked by the Deep Space Network (DSN) at X-band and for a 3 week period in February was tracked almost continuously for an intensive gravity modeling activity that would form the basis of the orbital computations for the rest of the mission. The data collected during this calibration period and the earlier SPO and Hiatus periods have now been used to develop a new gravity field model for Mars that is showing considerable new detail in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Until February no data at 400 km altitude or lower had been acquired on any previous mission south of about 35S and all the previous data were of significantly lower quality. Low altitude data (-170 km) were obtained over the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere during the SPO periods but because of the high eccentricity of the orbit nothing of similar quality was obtainable for the southern hemisphere. The new models are of spherical harmonic degree and order 70 or higher and are suggesting large anomalies are often associated with the large impact features. Gravity data have also been obtained over both the northern and southern polar ice caps. The MGS orbit quality resulting from the use of these newer models is better than any previous Mars missions and is approaching the ten's of meter level that had been hoped would be eventually realizable.

Health care strategies to promote earlier presentation of symptomatic breast cancer: perspectives of women and family physicians

PubMed Central

Heisey, R.; Clemons, M.; Granek, L.; Fergus, K.; Hum, S.; Lord, B.; McCready, D.R.; Fitzgerald, B.

2011-01-01

Background Many women with symptoms suggestive of a breast cancer diagnosis delay presentation to their family physician. Although factors associated with delay have been well described, there is a paucity of data on strategies to mitigate delay. Objectives We conducted a qualitative research project to examine factors related to delay and to identify health care system changes that might encourage earlier presentation. Methods Individual semi-structured interviews were conducted with women who sought care 12 weeks or more after self-detection of breast cancer symptoms and with family physicians whose practices included patients meeting that criterion. Results The women and physicians both suggested a need for clearer screening mammography guidelines for women 40–49 years of age and for better messaging concerning breast awareness. The use of additional hopeful testimonials from breast cancer survivors were suggested to help dispel the notion of cancer as a “death sentence.” Educational initiatives were proposed, aimed at both increasing awareness of “non-lump” breast cancer symptoms and advising women that a previous benign diagnosis does not ensure that future symptoms are not cancer. Women wanted empathic nonjudgmental access to care. Improved methods to track compliance with screening mammography and with periodic health exams and access to a rapid diagnostic process were suggested. Conclusions A list of “at-risk situations for delay” in diagnosis of breast cancer was developed for physicians to assist in identifying women who might delay. Health care system changes actionable both at the health policy level and in the family physician’s office were identified to encourage earlier presentation of women with symptomatic breast cancer. PMID:21980254

Earlier Visual N1 Latencies in Expert Video-Game Players: A Temporal Basis of Enhanced Visuospatial Performance?

PubMed Central

Latham, Andrew J.; Patston, Lucy L. M.; Westermann, Christine; Kirk, Ian J.; Tippett, Lynette J.

2013-01-01

Increasing behavioural evidence suggests that expert video game players (VGPs) show enhanced visual attention and visuospatial abilities, but what underlies these enhancements remains unclear. We administered the Poffenberger paradigm with concurrent electroencephalogram (EEG) recording to assess occipital N1 latencies and interhemispheric transfer time (IHTT) in expert VGPs. Participants comprised 15 right-handed male expert VGPs and 16 non-VGP controls matched for age, handedness, IQ and years of education. Expert VGPs began playing before age 10, had a minimum 8 years experience, and maintained playtime of at least 20 hours per week over the last 6 months. Non-VGPs had little-to-no game play experience (maximum 1.5 years). Participants responded to checkerboard stimuli presented to the left and right visual fields while 128-channel EEG was recorded. Expert VGPs responded significantly more quickly than non-VGPs. Expert VGPs also had significantly earlier occipital N1s in direct visual pathways (the hemisphere contralateral to the visual field in which the stimulus was presented). IHTT was calculated by comparing the latencies of occipital N1 components between hemispheres. No significant between-group differences in electrophysiological estimates of IHTT were found. Shorter N1 latencies may enable expert VGPs to discriminate attended visual stimuli significantly earlier than non-VGPs and contribute to faster responding in visual tasks. As successful video-game play requires precise, time pressured, bimanual motor movements in response to complex visual stimuli, which in this sample began during early childhood, these differences may reflect the experience and training involved during the development of video-game expertise, but training studies are needed to test this prediction. PMID:24058667

Earlier visual N1 latencies in expert video-game players: a temporal basis of enhanced visuospatial performance?

PubMed

Latham, Andrew J; Patston, Lucy L M; Westermann, Christine; Kirk, Ian J; Tippett, Lynette J

2013-01-01

Increasing behavioural evidence suggests that expert video game players (VGPs) show enhanced visual attention and visuospatial abilities, but what underlies these enhancements remains unclear. We administered the Poffenberger paradigm with concurrent electroencephalogram (EEG) recording to assess occipital N1 latencies and interhemispheric transfer time (IHTT) in expert VGPs. Participants comprised 15 right-handed male expert VGPs and 16 non-VGP controls matched for age, handedness, IQ and years of education. Expert VGPs began playing before age 10, had a minimum 8 years experience, and maintained playtime of at least 20 hours per week over the last 6 months. Non-VGPs had little-to-no game play experience (maximum 1.5 years). Participants responded to checkerboard stimuli presented to the left and right visual fields while 128-channel EEG was recorded. Expert VGPs responded significantly more quickly than non-VGPs. Expert VGPs also had significantly earlier occipital N1s in direct visual pathways (the hemisphere contralateral to the visual field in which the stimulus was presented). IHTT was calculated by comparing the latencies of occipital N1 components between hemispheres. No significant between-group differences in electrophysiological estimates of IHTT were found. Shorter N1 latencies may enable expert VGPs to discriminate attended visual stimuli significantly earlier than non-VGPs and contribute to faster responding in visual tasks. As successful video-game play requires precise, time pressured, bimanual motor movements in response to complex visual stimuli, which in this sample began during early childhood, these differences may reflect the experience and training involved during the development of video-game expertise, but training studies are needed to test this prediction.

Delusions and underlying needs in older adults with Alzheimer's disease: influence of earlier life experiences and the current environment.

PubMed

Wang, Jing-Jy; Cheng, Wen-Yun; Lai, Pei-Ru; Pai, Ming-Chyi

2014-12-01

Delusions are one of the most severe psychiatric symptoms of individuals with Alzheimer's disease (AD), which often increase the stress experienced by caregivers. The purpose of this study was to understand the influences of earlier life experiences and the current environment on delusions, as well as the underlying needs of older adults with AD who experience delusions. Using an exploratory research design with a qualitative approach and purposive sampling, 20 family caregivers were interviewed. Two psychosocial types of attributes of delusion were categorized: Type A, the influence of earlier life experiences; and Type B, current environmental influences. The underlying needs of those with delusions include physical comfort, a desire to be secure, and a sense of belonging. The contents of delusions are easily influenced by patients' earlier negative experiences and responsibilities, whereas the current environment exerts a crucial influence on the occurrence, frequency, and severity of specific delusions. These results can facilitate planning for patient-centered care by enhancing health care providers' understanding of the psychosocial and environmental attributes and needs behind delusions. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

Search Pathways: Modeling GeoData Search Behavior to Support Usable Application Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yarmey, L.; Rosati, A.; Tressel, S.

2014-12-01

Recent technical advances have enabled development of new scientific data discovery systems. Metadata brokering, linked data, and other mechanisms allow users to discover scientific data of interes across growing volumes of heterogeneous content. Matching this complex content with existing discovery technologies, people looking for scientific data are presented with an ever-growing array of features to sort, filter, subset, and scan through search returns to help them find what they are looking for. This paper examines the applicability of available technologies in connecting searchers with the data of interest. What metrics can be used to track success given shifting baselines of content and technology? How well do existing technologies map to steps in user search patterns? Taking a user-driven development approach, the team behind the Arctic Data Explorer interdisciplinary data discovery application invested heavily in usability testing and user search behavior analysis. Building on earlier library community search behavior work, models were developed to better define the diverse set of thought processes and steps users took to find data of interest, here called 'search pathways'. This research builds a deeper understanding of the user community that seeks to reuse scientific data. This approach ensures that development decisions are driven by clearly articulated user needs instead of ad hoc technology trends. Initial results from this research will be presented along with lessons learned for other discovery platform development and future directions for informatics research into search pathways.

Towards earlier inclusion of Children in Tuberculosis (TB) drugs trials: Consensus statements from an Expert Panel

PubMed Central

Nachman, Sharon; Ahmed, Amina; Amanullah, Farhana; Becerra, Mercedes C; Botgros, Radu; Brigden, Grania; Browning, Renee; Gardiner, Elizabeth; Hafner, Richard; Hesseling, Anneke; How, Cleotilde; Jean-Philippe, Patrick; Lessem, Erica; Makhene, Mamodikoe; Mbelle, Nontombi; Marais, Ben; McIlleron, Helen; Mc Neeley, David F; Mendel, Carl; Murray, Stephen; Navarro, Eileen; Oramasionwu, Gloria E; Porcalla, Ariel R; Powell, Clydette; Powell, Mair; Rigaud, Mona; Rouzier, Vanessa; Samson, Pearl; Schaaf, H. Simon; Shah, Seema; Starke, Jeff; Swaminathan, Soumya; Wobudeya, Eric; Worrell, Carol

2015-01-01

Children represent a significant proportion of the global tuberculosis (TB) burden, and may be disproportionately more affected by its most severe clinical manifestations. Currently available treatments for pediatric drug-susceptible (DS) and drug-resistant (DR) TB, albeit generally effective, are hampered by high pill burden, long duration of treatment, coexistent toxicities, and an overall lack of suitable, child-friendly formulations. The complex and burdensome nature of administering the existing regimens to treat DS TB also contributes to the rise of DR TB strains. Despite the availability and use of these therapies for decades, a dearth of dosing evidence in children underscores the importance of sustained efforts for TB drug development to better meet the treatment needs of children with TB. Several new TB drugs and regimens with promising activity against both DS and DR TB strains have recently entered clinical development and are in various phases of clinical evaluation in adults or have received marketing authorization for adults. However, initiation of clinical trials to evaluate these drugs in children is often deferred, pending the availability of complete safety and efficacy data in adults or after drug approval. This document summarizes consensus statements from an international panel of childhood TB opinion leaders which support the initiation of evaluation of new TB drugs and regimens in children at earlier phases of the TB Drug development cycle. PMID:25957923

External-environmental and internal-health early life predictors of adolescent development.

PubMed

Hartman, Sarah; Li, Zhi; Nettle, Daniel; Belsky, Jay

2017-12-01

A wealth of evidence documents associations between various aspects of the rearing environment and later development. Two evolutionary-inspired models advance explanations for why and how such early experiences shape later functioning: (a) the external-prediction model, which highlights the role of the early environment (e.g., parenting) in regulating children's development, and (b) the internal-prediction model, which emphasizes internal state (i.e., health) as the critical regulator. Thus, by using data from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, the current project draws from both models by investigating whether the effect of the early environment on later adolescent functioning is subject to an indirect effect by internal-health variables. Results showed a significant indirect effect of internal health on the relation between the early environment and adolescent behavior. Specifically, early environmental adversity during the first 5 years of life predicted lower quality health during childhood, which then led to problematic adolescent functioning and earlier age of menarche for girls. In addition, for girls, early adversity predicted lower quality health that forecasted earlier age of menarche leading to increased adolescent risk taking. The discussion highlights the importance of integrating both internal and external models to further understand the developmental processes that effect adolescent behavior.

Application of thermochemical modeling to aircraft interior polymeric materials

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-06-01

This report summarizes the results from a twelve-month study of the feasibility of applying certain basic concepts in the thermochemical modeling to aircraft cabin fire safety. The concepts developed earlier on a NASA-sponsored program were applied t...

37 CFR 1.78 - Claiming benefit of earlier filing date and cross-references to other applications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Claiming benefit of earlier filing date and cross-references to other applications. 1.78 Section 1.78 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN...

37 CFR 1.78 - Claiming benefit of earlier filing date and cross-references to other applications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Claiming benefit of earlier filing date and cross-references to other applications. 1.78 Section 1.78 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN...

Earlier Vegetation Activity Onset Enhances Springtime Water-use Efficiency in Temperate and Boreal Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, J.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

Ecosystem-scale water-use efficiency (EWUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET), is an important indicator for understanding how water couples with the carbon cycle under global change. Relationships between EWUE and abiotic environmental factors (e.g. climatic factors, atmospheric CO2concentration and nitrogen deposition) have been widely investigated, but the variations in EWUE in response to biotic controls remain little understood. Here, we argue that phenology plays an important role in the regulation of EWUE by analyzing springtime EWUE responses to variability of the GPP-based vegetation activity onset (VAO) in temperate and boreal ecosystems using both satellite and flux-tower observations. Based on MODIS productions during 2000-2014, we found that spring EWUE widely significantly increased with the earlier VAO mainly in the mid- and high latitudes (over 50°N), southwestern China and mid-western North America. When AVO advanced a 10-day, the spring EWUE would increase on average by 0.17±0.09 g C kg-1 H2O in temperate and continental climates after removing the effect of environmental factors. The main response patterns of EWUE to phenology suggest that an increase in spring EWUE with an earlier VAO are mainly because the increase in GPP is relatively larger in magnitude compared to that of ET, or due to an increase in GPP accompanied by a decrease in ET, resulting from an advanced VAO. The credibility of the results is also supported by the local-scale observations. By analyzing 66 site-years of flux and meteorological data obtained from 8 temperate deciduous broadleaf forest sites across North America and Europe, spring EWUE increased 0.42±0.08 g C kg-1 H2O with a 10-day advance of VAO across all sites after controlling for environmental factors, mainly because an earlier VAO could lead to a steeper increase in GPP than in ET. Our results and conclusions highlight that phenological factors cannot be

MRI morphometry of mamillary bodies, caudate nuclei, and prefrontal cortices after chemotherapy for childhood leukemia: multivariate models of early and late developing memory subsystems.

PubMed

Ciesielski, K T; Lesnik, P G; Benzel, E C; Hart, B L; Sanders, J A

1999-06-01

Neurotoxic intrathecal chemotherapy for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) affects developing structures and functions of memory and learning subsystems selectively. Results show significant reductions in magnetic resonance imaging morphometry of mamillary bodies, components of the corticolimbic-diencephalic subsystem subserving functionally later developing, single-trial memory, nonsignificant changes in bilateral heads of the caudate nuclei, components of the corticostriatal subsystem subserving functionally earlier developing, multitrial learning, significant reductions in prefrontal cortical volume, visual and verbal single-trial memory deficits, and visuospatial, but not verbal, multitrial learning deficits. Multiple regression models provide evidence for partial dissociation and connectivity between the subsystems, and suggest that greater involvement of caudate may compensate for inefficient corticolimbic-diencephalic components.

Do BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have an earlier onset of natural menopause?

PubMed

van Tilborg, Theodora C; Broekmans, Frank J; Pijpe, Anouk; Schrijver, Lieske H; Mooij, Thea M; Oosterwijk, Jan C; Verhoef, Senno; Gómez Garcia, Encarna B; van Zelst-Stams, Wendy A; Adank, Muriel A; van Asperen, Christi J; van Doorn, Helena C; van Os, Theo A; Bos, Anna M; Rookus, Matti A; Ausems, Margreet G

2016-08-01

It has been hypothesized that BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have an earlier age at natural menopause (ANM), although to date findings are inconclusive. This study assessed the influence of BRCA mutation status on ANM, and aimed to explore the reasons of inconsistency in the literature. Cross-sectional assessment from an ongoing nationwide cohort study among members of BRCA1/2 mutated families. Information was obtained by a standardized questionnaire. Kaplan-Meier curves were constructed, and Cox regression was used to assess the association between BRCA1/2 mutation status and ANM. Adjustments were made for birth cohort, family, smoking, use of hormonal contraceptives, and parity. A total of 1,208 BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and 2,211 proven noncarriers were included. Overall, no association was found between BRCA1/2 mutation status and ANM (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 1.06 [95% CI, 0.87-1.30]). We examined if the null finding was due to informative censoring by uptake of risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy. Indeed, within the oldest birth cohort, in which the percentage of surgical menopause events was lowest and comparable between carriers and noncarriers, the HR for earlier natural menopause in carriers was 1.45 (95% CI, 1.09-1.94). The second oldest birth cohort, however, demonstrated a decreased HR (0.67 [95% CI, 0.46-0.98]), and thus no trend over birth cohorts was found. Various types of selection bias hamper the comparison of ANM between BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and noncarriers, genetically tested in the clinic.

Modeling of dynamic bipolar plasma sheaths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, J. M.; Swanekamp, S. B.; Ottinger, P. F.

1991-08-01

The behavior of a one dimensional plasma sheath is described in regimes where the sheath is not in equilibrium because it carries current densities that are either time dependent, or larger than the bipolar Child-Langmuir level determined from the injected ion flux. Earlier models of dynamic bipolar sheaths assumed that ions and electrons evolve in a series of quasi-equilibria. In addition, sheath growth was described by the equation Zenoxs = (ji)-Zenouo, where xs is the velocity of the sheath edge, ji is the ion current density, nouo is the injected ion flux density, and Ze is the ion charge. In this paper, a generalization of the bipolar electron-to-ion current density ratio formula is derived to study regimes where ions are not in equilibrium. A generalization of the above sheath growth equation is also developed which is consistent with the ion continuity equation and which reveals new physics of sheath behavior associated with the emitted electrons and their evolution. Based on these findings, two new models of dynamic bipolar sheaths are developed. Larger sheath sizes and potentials than those of earlier models are found. In certain regimes, explosive sheath growth is predicted.

A nonlinear dynamical analogue model of geomagnetic activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klimas, A. J.; Baker, D. N.; Roberts, D. A.; Fairfield, D. H.; Buechner, J.

1992-01-01

Consideration is given to the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction within the framework of deterministic nonlinear dynamics. An earlier dripping faucet analog model of the low-dimensional solar wind-magnetosphere system is reviewed, and a plasma physical counterpart to that model is constructed. A Faraday loop in the magnetotail is considered, and the relationship of electric potentials on the loop to changes in the magnetic flux threading the loop is developed. This approach leads to a model of geomagnetic activity which is similar to the earlier mechanical model but described in terms of the geometry and plasma contents of the magnetotail. The model is characterized as an elementary time-dependent global convection model. The convection evolves within a magnetotail shape that varies in a prescribed manner in response to the dynamical evolution of the convection. The result is a nonlinear model capable of exhibiting a transition from regular to chaotic loading and unloading. The model's behavior under steady loading and also some elementary forms of time-dependent loading is discussed.

The case for earlier cochlear implantation in postlingually deaf adults.

PubMed

Dowell, Richard C

2016-01-01

This paper aimed to estimate the difference in speech perception outcomes that may occur due to timing of cochlear implantation in relation to the progression of hearing loss. Data from a large population-based sample of adults with acquired hearing loss using cochlear implants (CIs) was used to estimate the effects of duration of hearing loss, age, and pre-implant auditory skills on outcomes for a hypothetical standard patient. A total of 310 adults with acquired severe/profound bilateral hearing loss who received a CI in Melbourne, Australia between 1994 and 2006 provided the speech perception data and demographic information to derive regression equations for estimating CI outcomes. For a hypothetical CI candidate with progressive sensorineural hearing loss, the estimates of speech perception scores following cochlear implantation are significantly better if implantation occurs relatively soon after onset of severe hearing loss and before the loss of all functional auditory skills. Improved CI outcomes and quality of life benefit may be achieved for adults with progressive severe hearing loss if they are implanted earlier in the progression of the pathology.

Evaluation of an Action Learning Programme for Leadership Development of SME Leaders in the UK

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Jean-Anne

2009-01-01

This paper presents the findings from an evaluation research project undertaken by Henley Management College in 2006. This project followed an earlier research study that focused on identifying the leadership development needs for leaders of small and medium sized-enterprises (SMEs) in the UK, developed a leadership development model and made…

Integrated Tree-Ring-Radiocarbon High-Resolution Timeframe to Resolve Earlier Second Millennium BCE Mesopotamian Chronology.

PubMed

Manning, Sturt W; Griggs, Carol B; Lorentzen, Brita; Barjamovic, Gojko; Ramsey, Christopher Bronk; Kromer, Bernd; Wild, Eva Maria

2016-01-01

500 years of ancient Near Eastern history from the earlier second millennium BCE, including such pivotal figures as Hammurabi of Babylon, Šamši-Adad I (who conquered Aššur) and Zimrilim of Mari, has long floated in calendar time subject to rival chronological schemes up to 150+ years apart. Texts preserved on clay tablets provide much information, including some astronomical references, but despite 100+ years of scholarly effort, chronological resolution has proved impossible. Documents linked with specific Assyrian officials and rulers have been found and associated with archaeological wood samples at Kültepe and Acemhöyük in Turkey, and offer the potential to resolve this long-running problem. Here we show that previous work using tree-ring dating to place these timbers in absolute time has fundamental problems with key dendrochronological crossdates due to small sample numbers in overlapping years and insufficient critical assessment. To address, we have integrated secure dendrochronological sequences directly with radiocarbon (14C) measurements to achieve tightly resolved absolute (calendar) chronological associations and identify the secure links of this tree-ring chronology with the archaeological-historical evidence. The revised tree-ring-sequenced 14C time-series for Kültepe and Acemhöyük is compatible only with the so-called Middle Chronology and not with the rival High, Low or New Chronologies. This finding provides a robust resolution to a century of uncertainty in Mesopotamian chronology and scholarship, and a secure basis for construction of a coherent timeframe and history across the Near East and East Mediterranean in the earlier second millennium BCE. Our re-dating also affects an unusual tree-ring growth anomaly in wood from Porsuk, Turkey, previously tentatively associated with the Minoan eruption of the Santorini volcano. This tree-ring growth anomaly is now directly dated ~1681-1673 BCE (68.2% highest posterior density range), ~20

Integrated Tree-Ring-Radiocarbon High-Resolution Timeframe to Resolve Earlier Second Millennium BCE Mesopotamian Chronology

PubMed Central

Griggs, Carol B.; Lorentzen, Brita; Barjamovic, Gojko; Ramsey, Christopher Bronk; Kromer, Bernd; Wild, Eva Maria

2016-01-01

500 years of ancient Near Eastern history from the earlier second millennium BCE, including such pivotal figures as Hammurabi of Babylon, Šamši-Adad I (who conquered Aššur) and Zimrilim of Mari, has long floated in calendar time subject to rival chronological schemes up to 150+ years apart. Texts preserved on clay tablets provide much information, including some astronomical references, but despite 100+ years of scholarly effort, chronological resolution has proved impossible. Documents linked with specific Assyrian officials and rulers have been found and associated with archaeological wood samples at Kültepe and Acemhöyük in Turkey, and offer the potential to resolve this long-running problem. Here we show that previous work using tree-ring dating to place these timbers in absolute time has fundamental problems with key dendrochronological crossdates due to small sample numbers in overlapping years and insufficient critical assessment. To address, we have integrated secure dendrochronological sequences directly with radiocarbon (14C) measurements to achieve tightly resolved absolute (calendar) chronological associations and identify the secure links of this tree-ring chronology with the archaeological-historical evidence. The revised tree-ring-sequenced 14C time-series for Kültepe and Acemhöyük is compatible only with the so-called Middle Chronology and not with the rival High, Low or New Chronologies. This finding provides a robust resolution to a century of uncertainty in Mesopotamian chronology and scholarship, and a secure basis for construction of a coherent timeframe and history across the Near East and East Mediterranean in the earlier second millennium BCE. Our re-dating also affects an unusual tree-ring growth anomaly in wood from Porsuk, Turkey, previously tentatively associated with the Minoan eruption of the Santorini volcano. This tree-ring growth anomaly is now directly dated ~1681–1673 BCE (68.2% highest posterior density range), ~20

Understanding Violence in Contemporary and Earlier Gangs: An Exploratory Application of the Theory of Reasoned Action.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Evans, Judy P.; Taylor, Jerome

1995-01-01

Reviews the theory of reasoned action to demonstrate how it can be applied to understanding gang violence, and illustrates its potential applicability to a pilot sample of 30 contemporary and 18 earlier gangs living in a large metropolitan community. Results indicate this theory has been helpful in explaining higher levels of violence in…

Model Developments for Development of Improved Emissions Scenarios: Developing Purchasing-Power Parity Models, Analyzing Uncertainty, and Developing Data Sets for Gridded Integrated Assessment Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zili; Nordhaus, William

2009-03-19

In the duration of this project, we finished the main tasks set up in the initial proposal. These tasks include: setting up the basic platform in GAMS language for the new RICE 2007 model; testing various model structure of RICE 2007; incorporating PPP data set in the new RICE model; developing gridded data set for IA modeling.

The characteristics of national health initiatives promoting earlier cancer diagnosis among adult populations: a systematic review protocol

PubMed Central

Calanzani, Natalia; Weller, David; Campbell, Christine

2017-01-01

Introduction The increasing burden of cancer morbidity and mortality has led to the development of national health initiatives to promote earlier cancer diagnosis and improve cancer survival. This protocol describes a systematic review aiming to identify the evidence about such initiatives among the adult population. We will describe their components, stakeholders and target populations, and summarise their outcomes. Methods and analysis We will search databases and websites for peer-reviewed publications and grey literature on national health initiatives in high-income countries as defined by the World Bank. Quantitative, qualitative and mixed-methods studies will be included and assessed for their methodological quality. Study selection, quality assessment and data extraction will be carried out independently by two reviewers. Narrative synthesis will be used to analyse the findings. Ethics and dissemination This systematic review analyses secondary data and ethical approval is not required. Review findings will be helpful to researchers, policy makers, governments and other key stakeholders developing similar initiatives and assessing cancer outcomes. The results will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal in order to reach a diverse group of healthcare professionals, researchers and policy makers. This systematic review protocol is registered at PROSPERO (CRD42016047233). PMID:28698336

The Fischa-Dagnitz spring, Southern Vienna Basin: a multi tracer time series study re-assessing earlier conceptual assumptions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suckow, Axel; Gerber, Christoph; Kralik, Martin; Sültenfuss, Jürgen; Purtschert, Roland

2013-04-01

The gravel aquifer of the Southern Vienna Basin is a very important backup drinking water resource for the city of Vienna. A discharge location, the Fischa-Dagnitz spring in the Southern Vienna Basin, Austria, was re-investigated in 2011, five years after the gas exchange tracer test published in (Stolp et al., 2010), and sampled for stable isotopes 18O/2H, tritium, 3He, SF6 and 85Kr (Gerber et al., 2012). Additionally, new tritium time series data (Davis et al., 1967), previously not considered in Stolp et al. (2010), were included. These show a higher and earlier tritium peak of >300 TU in 1965 in the discharge of the Fischa-Dagnitz spring as compared to 221 TU in 1972 considered in Stolp et al. (2010). The new 3He, SF6 and 85Kr gas tracer data from 2011 confirm the earlier finding for 3He of Stolp et al. (2010) and indicate a more recent equilibration with the atmosphere than the water bound tracers 18O, 2H and tritium. A new modelling attempt using the Lumpy code (Suckow, 2012) confirmed the discrepancy between the tritium data and the gaseous tracers 3He, SF6 and 85Kr. No steady-state combination of local recharge (represented by an exponential model) and Schwarza river infiltration flowing through the gravel aquifer (represented by a parallel dispersion model) can equally well explain both the tritium time series and the gas tracer results. A revised conceptual model proposes that a pinching of the aquifer at unconformities in the gravel body or a fault zone known in the gravel body forces groundwater along the flow path closer to the surface and exposes it to the atmosphere. This would tend to reset the "dating" clock for the gaseous tracers 3He, SF6 and 85Kr, which can equilibrate quickly with the atmosphere, but not for tritium, which marks the transport behaviour of the water itself. These findings are of importance also for other multi-tracer assessments of groundwater movement in phreatic aquifer systems. References: Davis, G.H., Payne, B.R., Dincer, T

JEDI International Model | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

Science.gov Websites

NREL International Model JEDI International Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) International Model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from international

Advanced Mirror & Modelling Technology Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Effinger, Michael; Stahl, H. Philip; Abplanalp, Laura; Maffett, Steven; Egerman, Robert; Eng, Ron; Arnold, William; Mosier, Gary; Blaurock, Carl

2014-01-01

The 2020 Decadal technology survey is starting in 2018. Technology on the shelf at that time will help guide selection to future low risk and low cost missions. The Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) team has identified development priorities based on science goals and engineering requirements for Ultraviolet Optical near-Infrared (UVOIR) missions in order to contribute to the selection process. One key development identified was lightweight mirror fabrication and testing. A monolithic, stacked, deep core mirror was fused and replicated twice to achieve the desired radius of curvature. It was subsequently successfully polished and tested. A recently awarded second phase to the AMTD project will develop larger mirrors to demonstrate the lateral scaling of the deep core mirror technology. Another key development was rapid modeling for the mirror. One model focused on generating optical and structural model results in minutes instead of months. Many variables could be accounted for regarding the core, face plate and back structure details. A portion of a spacecraft model was also developed. The spacecraft model incorporated direct integration to transform optical path difference to Point Spread Function (PSF) and between PSF to modulation transfer function. The second phase to the project will take the results of the rapid mirror modeler and integrate them into the rapid spacecraft modeler.

Number of Diverticulitis Episodes Before Resection and Factors Associated With Earlier Interventions

PubMed Central

Simianu, Vlad V.; Fichera, Alessandro; Bastawrous, Amir L.; Davidson, Giana H.; Florence, Michael G.; Thirlby, Richard C.; Flum, David R.

2016-01-01

IMPORTANCE Despite professional recommendations to delay elective colon resection for patients with uncomplicated diverticulitis, early surgery (after <3 preceding episodes) appears to be common. Several factors have been suggested to contribute to early surgery, including increasing numbers of younger patients, a lower threshold to operate laparoscopically, and growing recognition of “smoldering” (or nonrecovering) diverticulitis episodes. However, the relevance of these factors in early surgery has not been well tested, and most prior studies have focused on hospitalizations, missing outpatient events and making it difficult to assess guideline adherence in earlier interventions. OBJECTIVE To describe patterns of episodes of diverticulitis before surgery and factors associated with earlier interventions using inpatient, outpatient, and antibiotic prescription claims. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This investigation was a nationwide retrospective cohort study from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2012. The dates of the analysis were July 2014 to May 2015. Participants were immunocompetent adult patients (age range, 18-64 years) with incident, uncomplicated diverticulitis. EXPOSURE Elective colectomy for diverticulitis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Inpatient, outpatient, and antibiotic prescription claims for diverticulitis captured in the MarketScan (Truven Health Analytics) databases. RESULTS Of 87 461 immunocompetent patients having at least 1 claim for diverticulitis, 6.4% (n = 5604) underwent a resection. The final study cohort comprised 3054 nonimmunocompromised patients who underwent elective resection for uncomplicated diverticulitis, of whom 55.6% (n = 1699) were male. Before elective surgery, they had a mean (SD) of 1.0 (0.9) inpatient claims, 1.5 (1.5) outpatient claims, and 0.5 (1.2) antibiotic prescription claims related to diverticulitis. Resection occurred after fewer than 3 episodes in 94.9% (2897 of 3054) of patients if counting inpatient

ATMOSPHERIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT

EPA Science Inventory

This task provides credible state of the art air quality models and guidance for use in implementation of National Ambient Air Quality Standards for ozone and PM. This research effort is to develop and improve air quality models, such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMA...

Predicting Survival within the Lung Cancer Histopathological Hierarchy Using a Multi-Scale Genomic Model of Development

PubMed Central

Liu, Hongye; Kho, Alvin T; Kohane, Isaac S; Sun, Yao

2006-01-01

Background The histopathologic heterogeneity of lung cancer remains a significant confounding factor in its diagnosis and prognosis—spurring numerous recent efforts to find a molecular classification of the disease that has clinical relevance. Methods and Findings Molecular profiles of tumors from 186 patients representing four different lung cancer subtypes (and 17 normal lung tissue samples) were compared with a mouse lung development model using principal component analysis in both temporal and genomic domains. An algorithm for the classification of lung cancers using a multi-scale developmental framework was developed. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was conducted for lung adenocarcinoma patient subgroups identified via their developmental association. We found multi-scale genomic similarities between four human lung cancer subtypes and the developing mouse lung that are prognostically meaningful. Significant association was observed between the localization of human lung cancer cases along the principal mouse lung development trajectory and the corresponding patient survival rate at three distinct levels of classical histopathologic resolution: among different lung cancer subtypes, among patients within the adenocarcinoma subtype, and within the stage I adenocarcinoma subclass. The earlier the genomic association between a human tumor profile and the mouse lung development sequence, the poorer the patient's prognosis. Furthermore, decomposing this principal lung development trajectory identified a gene set that was significantly enriched for pyrimidine metabolism and cell-adhesion functions specific to lung development and oncogenesis. Conclusions From a multi-scale disease modeling perspective, the molecular dynamics of murine lung development provide an effective framework that is not only data driven but also informed by the biology of development for elucidating the mechanisms of human lung cancer biology and its clinical outcome. PMID:16800721

A hybrid architecture for the implementation of the Athena neural net model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koutsougeras, C.; Papachristou, C.

1989-01-01

The implementation of an earlier introduced neural net model for pattern classification is considered. Data flow principles are employed in the development of a machine that efficiently implements the model and can be useful for real time classification tasks. Further enhancement with optical computing structures is also considered.

Animal models of neoplastic development.

PubMed

Pitot, H C

2001-01-01

The basic animal model for neoplastic development used by regulatory agencies is the two-year chronic bioassay developed more than 30 years ago and based on the presumed mechanism of action of a few potential chemical carcinogens. Since that time, a variety of other model carcinogenic systems have been developed, usually involving shorter duration, single organ endpoints, multistage models, and those in genetically-engineered mice. The chronic bioassay is still the "gold standard" of regulatory agencies despite a number of deficiencies, while in this country the use of shorter term assays based on single organ endpoints has not been popular. The multistage model of carcinogenesis in mouse epidermis actually preceded the development of the chronic two-year bioassay, but it was not until multistage models in other organ systems were developed that the usefulness of such systems became apparent. Recently, several genetically-engineered mouse lines involving mutations in proto-oncogenes and tumour suppressor genes have been proposed as additional model systems for use in regulatory decisions. It is likely that a combination of several of these model systems may be most useful in both practical and basic applications of cancer prevention and therapy.

An Overview of the Future Development of Climate and Earth System Models for Scientific and Policy Use (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington, W. M.

2010-12-01

The development of climate and earth system models has been regarded primarily as the making of scientific tools to study the complex nature of the Earth’s climate. These models have a long history starting with very simple physical models based on fundamental physics in the 1960s and over time they have become much more complex with atmospheric, ocean, sea ice, land/vegetation, biogeochemical, glacial and ecological components. The policy use aspects of these models did not start in the 1960s and 1970s as decision making tools but were used to answer fundamental scientific questions such as what happens when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increases or is doubled. They gave insights into the various interactions and were extensively compared with observations. It was realized that models of the earlier time periods could only give first order answers to many of the fundamental policy questions. As societal concerns about climate change rose, the policy questions of anthropogenic climate change became better defined; they were mostly concerned with the climate impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land cover change. In the late 1980s, the United Nations set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to perform assessments of the published literature. Thus, the development of climate and Earth system models became intimately linked to the need to not only improve our scientific understanding but also answering fundamental policy questions. In order to meet this challenge, the models became more complex and realistic so that they could address these policy oriented science questions such as rising sea level. The presentation will discuss the past and future development of global climate and earth system models for science and policy purposes. Also to be discussed is their interactions with economic integrated assessment models, regional and specialized models such as river transport or ecological components. As an example of one

Developing New Models for Collection Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stoffle, Carla J.; Fore, Janet; Allen, Barbara

1999-01-01

Discusses the need to develop new models for collection development in academic libraries, based on experiences at the University of Arizona. Highlights include changes in the organizational chart; focusing on users' information goals and needs; integrative services; shared resources; interlibrary loans; digital technology; and funding. (LRW)

An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrological modelling

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier for the Little Miami River (LMR) and Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watersheds were used for detail sensitivity analyses. To compare the...

The conditional resampling model STARS: weaknesses of the modeling concept and development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menz, Christoph

2016-04-01

The Statistical Analogue Resampling Scheme (STARS) is based on a modeling concept of Werner and Gerstengarbe (1997). The model uses a conditional resampling technique to create a simulation time series from daily observations. Unlike other time series generators (such as stochastic weather generators) STARS only needs a linear regression specification of a single variable as the target condition for the resampling. Since its first implementation the algorithm was further extended in order to allow for a spatially distributed trend signal, to preserve the seasonal cycle and the autocorrelation of the observation time series (Orlovsky, 2007; Orlovsky et al., 2008). This evolved version was successfully used in several climate impact studies. However a detaild evaluation of the simulations revealed two fundamental weaknesses of the utilized resampling technique. 1. The restriction of the resampling condition on a single individual variable can lead to a misinterpretation of the change signal of other variables when the model is applied to a mulvariate time series. (F. Wechsung and M. Wechsung, 2014). As one example, the short-term correlations between precipitation and temperature (cooling of the near-surface air layer after a rainfall event) can be misinterpreted as a climatic change signal in the simulation series. 2. The model restricts the linear regression specification to the annual mean time series, refusing the specification of seasonal varying trends. To overcome these fundamental weaknesses a redevelopment of the whole algorithm was done. The poster discusses the main weaknesses of the earlier model implementation and the methods applied to overcome these in the new version. Based on the new model idealized simulations were conducted to illustrate the enhancement.

New models for age estimation and assessment of their accuracy using developing mandibular third molar teeth in a Thai population.

PubMed

Duangto, P; Iamaroon, A; Prasitwattanaseree, S; Mahakkanukrauh, P; Janhom, A

2017-03-01

Age estimation using developing third molar teeth is considered an important and accurate technique for both clinical and forensic practices. The aims of this study were to establish population-specific reference data, to develop age prediction models using mandibular third molar development, to test the accuracy of the resulting models, and to find the probability of persons being at the age thresholds of legal relevance in a Thai population. A total of 1867 digital panoramic radiographs of Thai individuals aged between 8 and 23 years was selected to assess dental age. The mandibular third molar development was divided into nine stages. The stages were evaluated and each stage was transformed into a development score. Quadratic regression was employed to develop age prediction models. Our results show that males reached mandibular third molar root formation stages earlier than females. The models revealed a high correlation coefficient for both left and right mandibular third molar teeth in both sexes (R = 0.945 and 0.944 in males, R = 0.922 and 0.923 in females, respectively). Furthermore, the accuracy of the resulting models was tested in randomly selected 374 cases and showed low error values between the predicted dental age and the chronological age for both left and right mandibular third molar teeth in both sexes (-0.13 and -0.17 years in males, 0.01 and 0.03 years in females, respectively). In Thai samples, when the mandibular third molar teeth reached stage H, the probability of the person being over 18 years was 100 % in both sexes.

Oral Exposure to Paraquat Triggers Earlier Expression of Phosphorylated α-Synuclein in the Enteric Nervous System of A53T Mutant Human α-Synuclein Transgenic Mice

PubMed Central

Naudet, Nicolas; Antier, Emilie; Gaillard, Damien; Morignat, Eric; Lakhdar, Latifa; Baron, Thierry; Bencsik, Anna

2017-01-01

Abstract The misfolded α-synuclein protein, phosphorylated at serine 129 (pSer129 α-syn), is the hallmark of Parkinson disease (PD). Detected also in the enteric nervous system (ENS), it supports the recent theory that PD could start in the gut, rather than the brain. In a previous study, using a transgenic mouse model of human synucleinopathies expressing the A53T mutant α-synuclein (TgM83), in which a neurodegenerative process associated with α-synuclein occurs spontaneously in the brain, we have shown earlier onset of pSer129 α-syn in the ENS. Here, we used this model to study the impact of paraquat (PQ) a neurotoxic herbicide incriminated in PD in agricultural workers) on the enteric pSer129 α-syn expression in young mice. Orally delivered in the drinking water at 10 mg/kg/day for 6–8 weeks, the impact of PQ was measured in a time-dependent manner on weight, locomotor abilities, pSer129 α-syn, and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) expression levels in the ENS. Remarkably, pSer129 α-syn was detected in ENS earlier under PQ oral exposure and enteric GFAP expression was also increased. These findings bring additional support to the theory that neurotoxic agents such as PQ initiate idiopathic PD after oral delivery. PMID:29040593

Oral Exposure to Paraquat Triggers Earlier Expression of Phosphorylated α-Synuclein in the Enteric Nervous System of A53T Mutant Human α-Synuclein Transgenic Mice.

PubMed

Naudet, Nicolas; Antier, Emilie; Gaillard, Damien; Morignat, Eric; Lakhdar, Latifa; Baron, Thierry; Bencsik, Anna

2017-12-01

The misfolded α-synuclein protein, phosphorylated at serine 129 (pSer129 α-syn), is the hallmark of Parkinson disease (PD). Detected also in the enteric nervous system (ENS), it supports the recent theory that PD could start in the gut, rather than the brain. In a previous study, using a transgenic mouse model of human synucleinopathies expressing the A53T mutant α-synuclein (TgM83), in which a neurodegenerative process associated with α-synuclein occurs spontaneously in the brain, we have shown earlier onset of pSer129 α-syn in the ENS. Here, we used this model to study the impact of paraquat (PQ) a neurotoxic herbicide incriminated in PD in agricultural workers) on the enteric pSer129 α-syn expression in young mice. Orally delivered in the drinking water at 10 mg/kg/day for 6-8 weeks, the impact of PQ was measured in a time-dependent manner on weight, locomotor abilities, pSer129 α-syn, and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) expression levels in the ENS. Remarkably, pSer129 α-syn was detected in ENS earlier under PQ oral exposure and enteric GFAP expression was also increased. These findings bring additional support to the theory that neurotoxic agents such as PQ initiate idiopathic PD after oral delivery. © 2017 American Association of Neuropathologists, Inc.

Liquid rocket combustor computer code development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liang, P. Y.

1985-01-01

The Advanced Rocket Injector/Combustor Code (ARICC) that has been developed to model the complete chemical/fluid/thermal processes occurring inside rocket combustion chambers are highlighted. The code, derived from the CONCHAS-SPRAY code originally developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory incorporates powerful features such as the ability to model complex injector combustion chamber geometries, Lagrangian tracking of droplets, full chemical equilibrium and kinetic reactions for multiple species, a fractional volume of fluid (VOF) description of liquid jet injection in addition to the gaseous phase fluid dynamics, and turbulent mass, energy, and momentum transport. Atomization and droplet dynamic models from earlier generation codes are transplated into the present code. Currently, ARICC is specialized for liquid oxygen/hydrogen propellants, although other fuel/oxidizer pairs can be easily substituted.

Earlier adolescent substance use onset predicts stronger connectivity between reward and cognitive control brain networks.

PubMed

Weissman, David G; Schriber, Roberta A; Fassbender, Catherine; Atherton, Olivia; Krafft, Cynthia; Robins, Richard W; Hastings, Paul D; Guyer, Amanda E

2015-12-01

Early adolescent onset of substance use is a robust predictor of future substance use disorders. We examined the relation between age of substance use initiation and resting state functional connectivity (RSFC) of the core reward processing (nucleus accumbens; NAcc) to cognitive control (prefrontal cortex; PFC) brain networks. Adolescents in a longitudinal study of Mexican-origin youth reported their substance use annually from ages 10 to 16 years. At age 16, 69 adolescents participated in a resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging scan. Seed-based correlational analyses were conducted using regions of interest in bilateral NAcc. The earlier that adolescents initiated substance use, the stronger the connectivity between bilateral NAcc and right dorsolateral PFC, right dorsomedial PFC, right pre-supplementary motor area, right inferior parietal lobule, and left medial temporal gyrus. The regions that demonstrated significant positive linear relationships between the number of adolescent years using substances and connectivity with NAcc are nodes in the right frontoparietal network, which is central to cognitive control. The coupling of reward and cognitive control networks may be a mechanism through which earlier onset of substance use is related to brain function over time, a trajectory that may be implicated in subsequent substance use disorders. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

SSME structural dynamic model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foley, M. J.; Tilley, D. M.; Welch, C. T.

1983-01-01

A mathematical model of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) as a complete assembly, with detailed emphasis on LOX and High Fuel Turbopumps is developed. The advantages of both complete engine dynamics, and high fidelity modeling are incorporated. Development of this model, some results, and projected applications are discussed.

Modelling of the AGS using Zgoubi - Status

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meot F.; Ahrens, L.; Dutheil, Y.

2012-05-20

This paper summarizes the progress achieved so far, and discusses various outcomes, regarding the development of a model of the Alternating Gradient Synchrotron at the RHIC collider. The model, based on stepwise ray-tracing methods, includes beam and polarization dynamics. This is an on-going work, and a follow-on of code developments and particle and spin dynamics simulations that have been subject to earlier publications at IPAC and PAC [1, 2, 3]. A companion paper [4] gives additional informations, regarding the use of the measured magnetic field maps of the AGS main magnets.

Constitutive modelling of lubricants in concentrated contacts at high slide to roll ratios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tevaarwerk, J. L.

1985-01-01

A constitutive lubricant friction model for rolling/sliding concentrated contacts such as gears and cams was developed, based upon the Johnson and Tevaarwerk fluid rheology model developed earlier. The friction model reported herein differs from the earlier rheological models in that very large slide to roll ratios can now be accommodated by modifying the thermal response of the model. Also the elastic response of the fluid has been omitted from the model, thereby making it much simpler for use in the high slide to roll contacts. The effects of this simplification are very minimal on the outcome of the predicted friction losses (less than 1%). In essence then the lubricant friction model developed for the high slide to roll ratios treats the fluid in the concentrated contact as consisting of a nonlinear viscous element that is pressure, temperature, and strain rate dependent in its shear response. The fluid rheological constants required for the prediction of the friction losses at different contact conditions are obtained by traction measurements on several of the currently used gear lubricants. An example calculation, using this model and the fluid parameters obtained from the experiments, shows that it correctly predicts trends and magnitude of gear mesh losses measured elsewhere for the same fluids tested here.

Paper-based and web-based intervention modeling experiments identified the same predictors of general practitioners' antibiotic-prescribing behavior.

PubMed

Treweek, Shaun; Bonetti, Debbie; Maclennan, Graeme; Barnett, Karen; Eccles, Martin P; Jones, Claire; Pitts, Nigel B; Ricketts, Ian W; Sullivan, Frank; Weal, Mark; Francis, Jill J

2014-03-01

To evaluate the robustness of the intervention modeling experiment (IME) methodology as a way of developing and testing behavioral change interventions before a full-scale trial by replicating an earlier paper-based IME. Web-based questionnaire and clinical scenario study. General practitioners across Scotland were invited to complete the questionnaire and scenarios, which were then used to identify predictors of antibiotic-prescribing behavior. These predictors were compared with the predictors identified in an earlier paper-based IME and used to develop a new intervention. Two hundred seventy general practitioners completed the questionnaires and scenarios. The constructs that predicted simulated behavior and intention were attitude, perceived behavioral control, risk perception/anticipated consequences, and self-efficacy, which match the targets identified in the earlier paper-based IME. The choice of persuasive communication as an intervention in the earlier IME was also confirmed. Additionally, a new intervention, an action plan, was developed. A web-based IME replicated the findings of an earlier paper-based IME, which provides confidence in the IME methodology. The interventions will now be evaluated in the next stage of the IME, a web-based randomized controlled trial. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Class Model Development Using Business Rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skersys, Tomas; Gudas, Saulius

New developments in the area of computer-aided system engineering (CASE) greatly improve processes of the information systems development life cycle (ISDLC). Much effort is put into the quality improvement issues, but IS development projects still suffer from the poor quality of models during the system analysis and design cycles. At some degree, quality of models that are developed using CASE tools can be assured using various. automated. model comparison, syntax. checking procedures. It. is also reasonable to check these models against the business domain knowledge, but the domain knowledge stored in the repository of CASE tool (enterprise model) is insufficient (Gudas et al. 2004). Involvement of business domain experts into these processes is complicated because non- IT people often find it difficult to understand models that were developed by IT professionals using some specific modeling language.

A minimalist feedback-regulated model for galaxy formation during the epoch of reionization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furlanetto, Steven R.; Mirocha, Jordan; Mebane, Richard H.; Sun, Guochao

2017-12-01

Near-infrared surveys have now determined the luminosity functions of galaxies at 6 ≲ z ≲ 8 to impressive precision and identified a number of candidates at even earlier times. Here, we develop a simple analytic model to describe these populations that allows physically motivated extrapolation to earlier times and fainter luminosities. We assume that galaxies grow through accretion on to dark matter haloes, which we model by matching haloes at fixed number density across redshift, and that stellar feedback limits the star formation rate. We allow for a variety of feedback mechanisms, including regulation through supernova energy and momentum from radiation pressure. We show that reasonable choices for the feedback parameters can fit the available galaxy data, which in turn substantially limits the range of plausible extrapolations of the luminosity function to earlier times and fainter luminosities: for example, the global star formation rate declines rapidly (by a factor of ∼20 from z = 6 to 15 in our fiducial model), but the bright galaxies accessible to observations decline even faster (by a factor ≳ 400 over the same range). Our framework helps us develop intuition for the range of expectations permitted by simple models of high-z galaxies that build on our understanding of 'normal' galaxy evolution. We also provide predictions for galaxy measurements by future facilities, including James Webb Space Telescope and Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope.

Strategies for developing competency models.

PubMed

Marrelli, Anne F; Tondora, Janis; Hoge, Michael A

2005-01-01

There is an emerging trend within healthcare to introduce competency-based approaches in the training, assessment, and development of the workforce. The trend is evident in various disciplines and specialty areas within the field of behavioral health. This article is designed to inform those efforts by presenting a step-by-step process for developing a competency model. An introductory overview of competencies, competency models, and the legal implications of competency development is followed by a description of the seven steps involved in creating a competency model for a specific function, role, or position. This modeling process is drawn from advanced work on competencies in business and industry.

A Hepatocellular Carcinoma Case in a Patient Who had Immunity to Hepatitis B Virus Earlier.

PubMed

Ates, Ihsan; Kaplan, Mustafa; Demirci, Selim; Altiparmak, Emin

2016-01-01

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common malignant tumor of the liver. Hepatitis B virus infection is one of the most important etilogical factors of HCC. In this case report, a patient with HCC previously infected and having ongoing immunity against hepatitis B virus will be discussed. Ates I, Kaplan M, Demirci S, Altiparmak E. A Hepatocellular Carcinoma Case in a Patient Who had Immunity to Hepatitis B Virus Earlier. Euroasian J Hepato-Gastroenterol 2016;6(1):82-83.

Earlier Detection of Tumor Treatment Response Using Magnetic Resonance Diffusion Imaging with Oscillating Gradients

PubMed Central

Colvin, Daniel C.; Loveless, Mary E.; Does, Mark D.; Yue, Zou; Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Gore, John C.

2011-01-01

An improved method for detecting early changes in tumors in response to treatment, based on a modification of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging, has been demonstrated in an animal model. Early detection of therapeutic response in tumors is important both clinically and in pre-clinical assessments of novel treatments. Non-invasive imaging methods that can detect and assess tumor response early in the course of treatment, and before frank changes in tumor morphology are evident, are of considerable interest as potential biomarkers of treatment efficacy. Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging is sensitive to changes in water diffusion rates in tissues that result from structural variations in the local cellular environment, but conventional methods mainly reflect changes in tissue cellularity and do not convey information specific to micro-structural variations at sub-cellular scales. We implemented a modified imaging technique using oscillating gradients of the magnetic field for evaluating water diffusion rates over very short spatial scales that are more specific for detecting changes in intracellular structure that may precede changes in cellularity. Results from a study of orthotopic 9L gliomas in rat brains indicate that this method can detect changes as early as 24 hours following treatment with 1,3-bis(2-chloroethyl)-1-nitrosourea (BCNU), when conventional approaches do not find significant effects. These studies suggest that diffusion imaging using oscillating gradients may be used to obtain an earlier indication of treatment efficacy than previous magnetic resonance imaging methods. PMID:21190804

The Earlier the Better? Taking the AP® in 10th Grade. Research Report No. 2012-10

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodriguez, Awilda; McKillip, Mary E. M.; Niu, Sunny X.

2013-01-01

In this report, the authors examine the impact of scoring a 1 or 2 on an AP® Exam in 10th grade on later AP Exam participation and performance. As access to AP courses increases within and across schools, a growing number of students are taking AP courses and exams in the earlier grades of high school. Using a matched sample of AP and no-AP…

Association between severe dorsolateral prefrontal dysfunction during random number generation and earlier onset in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Koike, Shinsuke; Takizawa, Ryu; Nishimura, Yukika; Marumo, Kohei; Kinou, Masaru; Kawakubo, Yuki; Rogers, Mark A; Kasai, Kiyoto

2011-08-01

Schizophrenia involves impairment in attention, working memory and executive processes associated with prefrontal cortical function, an essential contributor of social functioning. Age at onset is a major factor for predicting social outcome in schizophrenia. In clinical settings, we need an objective assessment tool for evaluating prefrontal function and social outcome. Participants included 22 right-handed patients with schizophrenia and 40 gender- and age-matched healthy controls. We used a 52-channel near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) instrument to measure oxygenated haemoglobin ([oxy-Hb]) changes over the prefrontal cortex during a random number generation (RNG) task. In healthy controls, we found significant [oxy-Hb] increase in the bilateral dorsolateral (DLPFC; BA9 and BA46) and ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC; BA44, 45 and 47). The patients with schizophrenia showed significantly smaller activation than the healthy controls in the same approximate regions. In the patient group, a smaller [oxy-Hb] increase in the right DLPFC region (BA9) was significantly correlated with earlier age at onset. NIRS can detect prefrontal cortical dysfunction associated with an executive task, which was coupled with earlier age at onset in schizophrenia. Multichannel NIRS, a non-invasive and user-friendly instrument, may be useful in evaluating cognitive function and social outcome in clinical settings in psychiatry. Copyright © 2011 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microeconomics of the ideal gas like market models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakrabarti, Anindya S.; Chakrabarti, Bikas K.

2009-10-01

We develop a framework based on microeconomic theory from which the ideal gas like market models can be addressed. A kinetic exchange model based on that framework is proposed and its distributional features have been studied by considering its moments. Next, we derive the moments of the CC model (Eur. Phys. J. B 17 (2000) 167) as well. Some precise solutions are obtained which conform with the solutions obtained earlier. Finally, an output market is introduced with global price determination in the model with some necessary modifications.

JEDI Geothermal Model | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Geothermal Model JEDI Geothermal Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Geothermal Model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from geothermal projects and includes

Cancer Model Development Centers

Cancer.gov

The Cancer Model Development Centers (CMDCs) are the NCI-funded contributors to the HCMI. They are tasked with producing next-generation cancer models from clinical samples. The cancer models will encompass tumor types that are rare, originate from patients from underrepresented populations, or lack precision therapy. These models will be annotated with clinical and genomic data and will become a community resource.

JEDI Biofuels Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Biofuels Models JEDI Biofuels Models The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) biofuel models allow users to estimate economic development impacts from biofuel projects and include default

JEDI Petroleum Model | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Petroleum Model JEDI Petroleum Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Petroleum Model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from petroleum projects and includes default

Modeling of Nitrogen Oxides Emissions from CFB Combustion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallio, S.; Keinonen, M.

In this work, a simplified description of combustion and nitrogen oxides chemistry was implemented in a 1.5D model framework with the aim to compare the results with ones earlier obtained with a detailed reaction scheme. The simplified chemistry was written using 12 chemical components. Heterogeneous chemistry is given by the same models as in the earlier work but the homogeneous and catalytic reactions have been altered. The models have been taken from the literature. The paper describes the numerical model with emphasis on the chemistry submodels. A simulation of combustion of bituminous coal in the Chalmers 12 MW boiler is conducted and the results are compared with the results obtained earlier with the detailed chemistry description. The results are also compared with measured O2, CO, NO and N2O profiles. The simplified reaction scheme produces equally good results as earlier obtained with the more elaborate chemistry description.

JEDI Coal Model | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Coal Model JEDI Coal Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Coal Model allow users to estimate economic development impacts from coal projects and includes default information that can

Bilateral breast calciphylaxis in a patient who survived earlier extensive tissue necrosis 5 years previously: A case report.

PubMed

Verstappen, E M J; Maaskant-Braat, A J G; Scheltinga, M R

2018-05-07

Calciphylaxis is a rare condition including patchy dermal necrosis that mostly affects chronic hemodialysis patients. The syndrome usually heralds impending death although patients may survive following a set of measures including an adapted dialysis regimen. The present case is a unique patient who recovered from an earlier episode of upper leg calciphylaxis 5 years previously but developed fatal bilateral breast necrosis. A 69 year old Caucasian woman with a history of atrial fibrillation, hypertension, CVA, hyperparathyroidectomy for secondary hyperparathyroidism and end stage renal disease with hemodialysis recovered in 2012 from extensive symptomatic left upper leg necrosis due to calciphylaxis. In 2017, she developed painful, necrotic ulcers on both breasts, again due to calciphylaxis. She had no history of anticoagulants use but she did use prednisolone 5mg/day. She received adequate wound care, pain medication, antibiotics and dialysis frequency was increased with an addition of sodium thiosulfate. A bilateral ablation was discussed but she decided to stop all treatment following pulmonary aspiration and passed away one week later. Calciphylaxis is a rare diagnosis that should be considered in patients with renal insufficiency developing painful patches of skin necrosis. A multidisciplinary treatment approach including hyperparathyroidectomy, modified hemodialysis and wound treatment is recommended. There is limited evidence for surgical intervention. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Earlier onset of motor deficits in mice with double mutations in Dyt1 and Sgce.

PubMed

Yokoi, Fumiaki; Yang, Guang; Li, Jindong; DeAndrade, Mark P; Zhou, Tong; Li, Yuqing

2010-10-01

DYT1 early-onset generalized torsion dystonia is an inherited movement disorder caused by mutations in DYT1 coding for torsinA with ∼30% penetrance. Most of the DYT1 dystonia patients exhibit symptoms during childhood and adolescence. On the other hand, DYT1 mutation carriers without symptoms during these periods mostly do not exhibit symptoms later in their life. Little is known about what controls the timing of the onset, a critical issue for DYT1 mutation carriers. DYT11 myoclonus-dystonia is caused by mutations in SGCE coding for ε-sarcoglycan. Two dystonia patients from a single family with double mutations in DYT1 and SGCE exhibited more severe symptoms. A recent study suggested that torsinA contributes to the quality control of ε-sarcoglycan. Here, we derived mice carrying mutations in both Dyt1 and Sgce and found that these double mutant mice showed earlier onset of motor deficits in beam-walking test. A novel monoclonal antibody against mouse ε-sarcoglycan was developed by using Sgce knock-out mice to avoid the immune tolerance. Western blot analysis suggested that functional deficits of torsinA and ε-sarcoglycan may independently cause motor deficits. Examining additional mutations in other dystonia genes may be beneficial to predict the onset in DYT1 mutation carriers.

A Machine Learning Approach to Student Modeling. Technical Report No. 1. Annual Report, 11/82-11/83.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Langley, Pat; And Others

The notion of buggy procedures has played an important role in recent cognitive models of mathematical skills. Some earlier work on student modeling used artificial intelligence methods to automatically construct buggy models of student behavior. An alternate approach, proposed here, draws on insights from the rapidly developing field of machine…

Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models.

PubMed

Eaton, Jeffrey W; Menzies, Nicolas A; Stover, John; Cambiano, Valentina; Chindelevitch, Leonid; Cori, Anne; Hontelez, Jan A C; Humair, Salal; Kerr, Cliff C; Klein, Daniel J; Mishra, Sharmistha; Mitchell, Kate M; Nichols, Brooke E; Vickerman, Peter; Bakker, Roel; Bärnighausen, Till; Bershteyn, Anna; Bloom, David E; Boily, Marie-Claude; Chang, Stewart T; Cohen, Ted; Dodd, Peter J; Fraser, Christophe; Gopalappa, Chaitra; Lundgren, Jens; Martin, Natasha K; Mikkelsen, Evelinn; Mountain, Elisa; Pham, Quang D; Pickles, Michael; Phillips, Andrew; Platt, Lucy; Pretorius, Carel; Prudden, Holly J; Salomon, Joshua A; van de Vijver, David A M C; de Vlas, Sake J; Wagner, Bradley G; White, Richard G; Wilson, David P; Zhang, Lei; Blandford, John; Meyer-Rath, Gesine; Remme, Michelle; Revill, Paul; Sangrujee, Nalinee; Terris-Prestholt, Fern; Doherty, Meg; Shaffer, Nathan; Easterbrook, Philippa J; Hirnschall, Gottfried; Hallett, Timothy B

2014-01-01

New WHO guidelines recommend initiation of antiretroviral therapy for HIV-positive adults with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers have to decide whether to further expand eligibility for antiretroviral therapy accordingly. We aimed to assess the potential health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of various eligibility criteria for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage. We used several independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa (generalised epidemic, moderate antiretroviral therapy coverage), Zambia (generalised epidemic, high antiretroviral therapy coverage), India (concentrated epidemic, moderate antiretroviral therapy coverage), and Vietnam (concentrated epidemic, low antiretroviral therapy coverage)-to assess the potential health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of various eligibility criteria for adult antiretroviral therapy under scenarios of existing and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses assessed the extension of eligibility to include individuals with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less, or all HIV-positive adults, compared with the previous (2010) recommendation of initiation with CD4 counts of 350 cells per μL or less. We assessed costs from a health-system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost (in US$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted to compare competing strategies. Strategies were regarded very cost effective if the cost per DALY averted was less than the country's 2012 per-head gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040; Zambia: $1425; India: $1489; Vietnam: $1407) and cost effective if the cost per DALY averted was less than three times the per-head GDP. In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending eligibility for antiretroviral therapy to adult patients with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less ranged from $237 to $1691 per

Adiposity, Dysmetabolic Traits, and Earlier Onset of Female Puberty in Adolescent Offspring of Women With Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: A Clinical Study Within the Danish National Birth Cohort.

PubMed

Grunnet, Louise G; Hansen, Susanne; Hjort, Line; Madsen, Camilla M; Kampmann, Freja B; Thuesen, Anne Cathrine B; Granstrømi, Charlotta; Strøm, Marin; Maslova, Ekaterina; Frikke-Schmidt, Ruth; Damm, Peter; Chavarro, Jorge E; Hu, Frank B; Olsen, Sjurdur F; Vaag, Allan

2017-12-01

Offspring of pregnancies affected by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) are at increased risk of the development of type 2 diabetes. However, the extent to which these dysmetabolic traits may be due to offspring and/or maternal adiposity is unknown. We examined body composition and associated cardiometabolic traits in 561 9- to 16-year-old offspring of mothers with GDM and 597 control offspring. We measured anthropometric characteristics; puberty status; blood pressure; and fasting glucose, insulin, C-peptide, and lipid levels; and conducted a DEXA scan in a subset of the cohort. Differences in the outcomes between offspring of mothers with GDM and control subjects were examined using linear and logistic regression models. After adjustment for age and sex, offspring of mothers with GDM displayed higher weight, BMI, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), systolic blood pressure, and resting heart rate and lower height. Offspring of mothers with GDM had higher total and abdominal fat percentages and lower muscle mass percentages, but these differences disappeared after correction for offspring BMI. The offspring of mothers with GDM displayed higher fasting plasma glucose, insulin, C-peptide, HOMA-insulin resistance (IR), and plasma triglyceride levels, whereas fasting plasma HDL cholesterol levels were decreased. Female offspring of mothers with GDM had an earlier onset of puberty than control offspring. Offspring of mothers with GDM had significantly higher BMI, WHR, fasting glucose, and HOMA-IR levels after adjustment for maternal prepregnancy BMI, and glucose and HOMA-IR remained elevated in the offspring of mothers with GDM after correction for both maternal and offspring BMIs. In summary, adolescent offspring of women with GDM show increased adiposity, an adverse cardiometabolic profile, and earlier onset of puberty among girls. Increased fasting glucose and HOMA-IR levels among the offspring of mothers with GDM may be explained by the programming effects of hyperglycemia

A Hepatocellular Carcinoma Case in a Patient Who had Immunity to Hepatitis B Virus Earlier

PubMed Central

Kaplan, Mustafa; Demirci, Selim; Altiparmak, Emin

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common malignant tumor of the liver. Hepatitis B virus infection is one of the most important etilogical factors of HCC. In this case report, a patient with HCC previously infected and having ongoing immunity against hepatitis B virus will be discussed. How to cite this article Ates I, Kaplan M, Demirci S, Altiparmak E. A Hepatocellular Carcinoma Case in a Patient Who had Immunity to Hepatitis B Virus Earlier. Euroasian J Hepato-Gastroenterol 2016;6(1):82-83. PMID:29201732

Intermediate Fidelity Closed Brayton Cycle Power Conversion Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lavelle, Thomas M.; Khandelwal, Suresh; Owen, Albert K.

2006-01-01

This paper describes the implementation of an intermediate fidelity model of a closed Brayton Cycle power conversion system (Closed Cycle System Simulation). The simulation is developed within the Numerical Propulsion Simulation System architecture using component elements from earlier models. Of particular interest, and power, is the ability of this new simulation system to initiate a more detailed analysis of compressor and turbine components automatically and to incorporate the overall results into the general system simulation.

Progressively implementation of the new degrees at E.T.S. of Agriculture Engineering and extinction of the earlier degrees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arce, A.; Caniego, J.; Vazquez, J.; Serrano, A.; Tarquis, A. M.; Cartagena, M. C.

2012-04-01

The Bologna process is to improve the quality of education, mobility, diversity and the competitiveness and involves three fundamental changes: transform of the structure of titles, changing in methods of teaching and implementation of the systems of quality assurance. Once that the new degrees have been implemented with this structure, and began at E.T.S. of Agriculture Engineering (ETSIA) at Madrid from 2010-2011 course, the main aim of this work is to deeply study the changes in teaching methodology as well as progressively implementation of the educational planning of the three new degrees: Engineering and Agronomic Graduate, Food Industry Engineering Graduate and Agro-environmental Graduate. Each one of them presents 240 ECTS with a common first course and will have access to an official Master in Agronomic Engineering. As part as an educational innovation project awarded by the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) to improve educational quality, the second course has been designed with the main objective to continue the educative model implemented last course. This model identifies several teaching activities and represents a proper teaching style at ETSIA-UPM. At the same time, a monitoring and development coordination plans have been established. On the other hand, a procedure to extinguish the earlier plans of Agriculture Engineering was also defined. Other activities related to this Project were the information improvement of the grades, in particular at High Schools centers, improving the processes of reception, counseling and tutoring and mentoring. Likewise, cooperative working workshops and programs to support the teaching of English language were implemented. Satisfaction surveys and opinion polls were done to professors and students involved in first course in order to test several aspects of this project. The students surveys were analyzed taking in account the academic results and their participation in mentoring activities giving a highly

Combining in Vitro Diagnostics with in Vivo Imaging for Earlier Detection of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: Challenges and Solutions

PubMed Central

Laeseke, Paul F.; Chen, Ru; Jeffrey, R. Brooke; Brentnall, Teresa A.

2015-01-01

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is the fourth-leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States and is associated with a dismal prognosis, particularly when diagnosed at an advanced stage. Overall survival is significantly improved if PDAC is detected at an early stage prior to the onset of symptoms. At present, there is no suitable screening strategy for the general population. Available diagnostic serum markers are not sensitive or specific enough, and clinically available imaging modalities are inadequate for visualizing early-stage lesions. In this article, the role of currently available blood biomarkers and imaging tests for the early detection of PDAC will be reviewed. Also, the emerging biomarkers and molecularly targeted imaging agents being developed to improve the specificity of current imaging modalities for PDAC will be discussed. A strategy incorporating blood biomarkers and molecularly targeted imaging agents could lead to improved screening and earlier detection of PDAC in the future. © RSNA, 2015 PMID:26599925

JEDI Natural Gas Model | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Natural Gas Model JEDI Natural Gas Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Natural Gas model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from natural gas power generation -specific data should be used to obtain the best estimate of economic development impacts. This model has

A reversal of the shift towards earlier spring phenology in several Mediterranean reptiles and amphibians during the 1998-2013 warming slowdown.

PubMed

Prodon, Roger; Geniez, Philippe; Cheylan, Marc; Devers, Florence; Chuine, Isabelle; Besnard, Aurelien

2017-12-01

Herps, especially amphibians, are particularly susceptible to climate change, as temperature tightly controls many parameters of their biological cycle-above all, their phenology. The timing of herps' activity or migration period-in particular the dates of their first appearance in spring and first breeding-and the shift to earlier dates in response to warming since the last quarter of the 20 th century has often been described up to now as a nearly monotonic trend towards earlier phenological events. In this study, we used citizen science data opportunistically collected on reptiles and amphibians in the northern Mediterranean basin over a period of 32 years to explore temporal variations in herp phenology. For 17 common species, we measured shifts in the date of the species' first spring appearance-which may be the result of current changes in climate-and regressed the first appearance date against temperatures and precipitations. Our results confirmed the expected overall trend towards earlier first spring appearances from 1983 to 1997, and show that the first appearance date of both reptiles and amphibians fits well with the temperature in late winter. However, the trend towards earlier dates was stopped or even reversed in most species between 1998 and 2013. We interpret this reversal as a response to cooling related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the late winter and early spring. During the positive NAO episodes, for certain species only (mainly amphibians), the effect of a warm weather, which tends to advance the phenology, seems to be counterbalanced by the adverse effects of the relative dryness. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Low protein content of drainage fluid is a good predictor for earlier chest tube removal after lobectomy.

PubMed

Olgac, Guven; Cosgun, Tugba; Vayvada, Mustafa; Ozdemir, Atilla; Kutlu, Cemal Asim

2014-10-01

Owing to the great absorption capability of the pleura for transudates, the protein content of draining pleural fluid may be considered as a more adequate determinant than its daily draining amount in the decision-making for earlier chest tube removal. In an a priori pilot study, we observed that the initially draining protein-rich exudate converts to a transudate quickly in most patients after lobectomies. Thus, chest tubes draining high-volume but low-protein fluids can safely be removed earlier in the absence of an air leak. This randomized study aims to investigate the validity and clinical applicability of this hypothesis as well as its influence on the timing for chest tube removal and earlier discharge after lobectomy. Seventy-two consecutive patients undergoing straightforward lobectomy were randomized into two groups. Patients with conditions affecting postoperative drainage and with persisting air leaks beyond the third postoperative day were excluded. Drains were removed if the pleural fluid to blood protein ratio (PrRPl/B) was ≤0.5, regardless of its daily draining amount in the study arm (Group S; n = 38), and patients in the control arm (Group C; n = 34) had their tubes removed if daily drainage was ≤250 ml regardless of its protein content. Patients were discharged home immediately or the following morning after removal of the last drain. All cases were followed up regarding the development of symptomatic pleural effusions and hospital readmissions for a redrainage procedure. Demographic and clinical characteristics as well as the pattern of decrease in PrRPl/B were the same between groups. The mean PrRPl/B was 0.65 and 0.67 (95% CI = 0.60-0.69 and 0.62-0.72) on the first postoperative day, and it remarkably dropped down to 0.39 and 0.33 (95% CI = 0.33-0.45 and 0.27-0.39) on the second day in Groups S and C, respectively, and remained below 0.5 on the third day (repeated-measures of ANOVA design, post hoc 'within-group' comparison of the first

OSPREY Model Development Status Update

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veronica J Rutledge

2014-04-01

During the processing of used nuclear fuel, volatile radionuclides will be discharged to the atmosphere if no recovery processes are in place to limit their release. The volatile radionuclides of concern are 3H, 14C, 85Kr, and 129I. Methods are being developed, via adsorption and absorption unit operations, to capture these radionuclides. It is necessary to model these unit operations to aid in the evaluation of technologies and in the future development of an advanced used nuclear fuel processing plant. A collaboration between Fuel Cycle Research and Development Offgas Sigma Team member INL and a NEUP grant including ORNL, Syracuse University,more » and Georgia Institute of Technology has been formed to develop off gas models and support off gas research. Georgia Institute of Technology is developing fundamental level model to describe the equilibrium and kinetics of the adsorption process, which are to be integrated with OSPREY. This report discusses the progress made on expanding OSPREY to be multiple component and the integration of macroscale and microscale level models. Also included in this report is a brief OSPREY user guide.« less

Probabilistic Model Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adam, James H., Jr.

2010-01-01

Objective: Develop a Probabilistic Model for the Solar Energetic Particle Environment. Develop a tool to provide a reference solar particle radiation environment that: 1) Will not be exceeded at a user-specified confidence level; 2) Will provide reference environments for: a) Peak flux; b) Event-integrated fluence; and c) Mission-integrated fluence. The reference environments will consist of: a) Elemental energy spectra; b) For protons, helium and heavier ions.

Using Collaborative Simulation Modeling to Develop a Web-Based Tool to Support Policy-Level Decision Making About Breast Cancer Screening Initiation Age

PubMed Central

Burnside, Elizabeth S.; Lee, Sandra J.; Bennette, Carrie; Near, Aimee M.; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Huang, Hui; van den Broek, Jeroen J.; Kim, Joo Yeon; Ergun, Mehmet A.; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T.; Stout, Natasha K.; de Koning, Harry J.; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S.

2017-01-01

Background There are no publicly available tools designed specifically to assist policy makers to make informed decisions about the optimal ages of breast cancer screening initiation for different populations of US women. Objective To use three established simulation models to develop a web-based tool called Mammo OUTPuT. Methods The simulation models use the 1970 US birth cohort and common parameters for incidence, digital screening performance, and treatment effects. Outcomes include breast cancers diagnosed, breast cancer deaths averted, breast cancer mortality reduction, false-positive mammograms, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis. The Mammo OUTPuT tool displays these outcomes for combinations of age at screening initiation (every year from 40 to 49), annual versus biennial interval, lifetime versus 10-year horizon, and breast density, compared to waiting to start biennial screening at age 50 and continuing to 74. The tool was piloted by decision makers (n = 16) who completed surveys. Results The tool demonstrates that benefits in the 40s increase linearly with earlier initiation age, without a specific threshold age. Likewise, the harms of screening increase monotonically with earlier ages of initiation in the 40s. The tool also shows users how the balance of benefits and harms varies with breast density. Surveys revealed that 100% of users (16/16) liked the appearance of the site; 94% (15/16) found the tool helpful; and 94% (15/16) would recommend the tool to a colleague. Conclusions This tool synthesizes a representative subset of the most current CISNET (Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network) simulation model outcomes to provide policy makers with quantitative data on the benefits and harms of screening women in the 40s. Ultimate decisions will depend on program goals, the population served, and informed judgments about the weight of benefits and harms. PMID:29376135

Space Flight Cable Model Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spak, Kaitlin

2013-01-01

This work concentrates the modeling efforts presented in last year's VSGC conference paper, "Model Development for Cable-Harnessed Beams." The focus is narrowed to modeling of space-flight cables only, as a reliable damped cable model is not yet readily available and is necessary to continue modeling cable-harnessed space structures. New experimental data is presented, eliminating the low-frequency noise that plagued the first year's efforts. The distributed transfer function method is applied to a single section of space flight cable for Euler-Bernoulli and shear beams. The work presented here will be developed into a damped cable model that can be incorporated into an interconnected beam-cable system. The overall goal of this work is to accurately predict natural frequencies and modal damping ratios for cabled space structures.

Rigidice Model of Secondary Frost Heave

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-05-01

A revised version of an earlier attempt to numerically solve Miller's equations for the RIGIDICE model of frost heave is presented that corrects earlier mistakes and incorporates recent improvements in the scaling factors of ground freezing. The new ...

CORSAIR Solar Energetic Particle Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandroos, A.

2013-05-01

Acceleration of particles in coronal mass ejection (CME) driven shock waves is the most commonly accepted and best developed theory of the genesis of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events. The underlying acceleration mechanism is the diffusive shock acceleration (DSA). According to DSA, particles scatter from fluctuations present in the ambient magnetic field, which causes some particles to encounter the shock front repeatedly and to gain energy during each crossing. Currently STEREO and near-Earth spacecraft are providing valuable multi-point information on how SEP properties, such as composition and energy spectra, vary in longitude. Initial results have shown that longitude distributions of large CME-associated SEP events are much wider than reported in earlier studies. These findings have important consequences on SEP modeling. It is important to extend the present models into two or three spatial coordinates to properly take into account the effects of coronal and interplanetary (IP) magnetic geometry, and evolution of the CME and the associated shock, on the acceleration and transport of SEPs. We give a status update on CORSAIR project, which is an effort to develop a new self-consistent (total energy conserving) DSA acceleration model that is capable of modeling energetic particle acceleration and transport in IP space in two or three spatial dimensions. In the new model particles are propagated using guiding center approximation. Waves are modeled as (Lagrangian) wave packets propagating (anti)parallel to ambient magnetic field. Diffusion coefficients related to scattering from the waves are calculated using quasilinear theory. State of ambient plasma is obtained from an MHD simulation or by using idealized analytic models. CORSAIR is an extension to our earlier efforts to model the effects of magnetic geometry on SEP acceleration (Sandroos & Vainio, 2007,2009).

Master equation for a kinetic model of a trading market and its analytic solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, Arnab; Chakrabarti, Bikas K.; Stinchcombe, Robin B.

2005-08-01

We analyze an ideal-gas-like model of a trading market with quenched random saving factors for its agents and show that the steady state income (m) distribution P(m) in the model has a power law tail with Pareto index ν exactly equal to unity, confirming the earlier numerical studies on this model. The analysis starts with the development of a master equation for the time development of P(m) . Precise solutions are then obtained in some special cases.

Master equation for a kinetic model of a trading market and its analytic solution.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Arnab; Chakrabarti, Bikas K; Stinchcombe, Robin B

2005-08-01

We analyze an ideal-gas-like model of a trading market with quenched random saving factors for its agents and show that the steady state income (m) distribution P(m) in the model has a power law tail with Pareto index nu exactly equal to unity, confirming the earlier numerical studies on this model. The analysis starts with the development of a master equation for the time development of P(m) . Precise solutions are then obtained in some special cases.

Earlier disability of the patients followed in Multiple Sclerosis centers compared to outpatients.

PubMed

Debouverie, M; Laforest, L; Van Ganse, E; Guillemin, F

2009-02-01

The currently published works regarding the multiple sclerosis (MS) natural history report data were collected most often on population of patients recruited in MS centers. The aim was to compare the natural history of a population of patients followed in a MS centre (MSC) with patients followed outside a MS centre (NMSC). Cases were identified through the LORSEP cohort, a network of neurologists (private ambulatory practice, hospitals, and MS centers) in France. A total of 3602 patients had been analyzed: 1036 MSC patients and 2566 NMSC patients. No difference was observed regarding gender and initial symptoms. Conversely, MSC patients were younger at MS onset and were more likely to have a primary progressive initial form. Median times (years) to the EDSS scores of 3, 4, and 6 were 5.8 (5.0-6.8), 8.4 (7.9-9.0), 16.0 (14.8-18.1) in the MSC group, respectively, whereas corresponding times were 8.4 (7.9-9.0), 12.3 (11.4-13.4), 19.1 (18.0-20.2) in the NMSC group. These differences according to the type of MS supervision were statistically significant for EDSS3 (P < 0.0001), EDSS4 (P < 0.0001), and EDSS6 (P = 0.01), respectively. These findings were confirmed in Cox multivariate models. The patients followed in a MS centre had earlier disability than patients managed otherwise. Analyses exclusively conducted in patients with MS supervised in specialized centers may falsely misestimate the times needed to reach major disability landmarks. Before using registries to study the natural history of MS, efforts should be performed to verify in how far data are exhaustive and to understand the local health care system.

Onset of rigor mortis is earlier in red muscle than in white muscle.

PubMed

Kobayashi, M; Takatori, T; Nakajima, M; Sakurada, K; Hatanaka, K; Ikegaya, H; Matsuda, Y; Iwase, H

2000-01-01

Rigor mortis is thought to be related to falling ATP levels in muscles postmortem. We measured rigor mortis as tension determined isometrically in three rat leg muscles in liquid paraffin kept at 37 degrees C or 25 degrees C--two red muscles, red gastrocnemius (RG) and soleus (SO) and one white muscle, white gastrocnemius (WG). Onset, half and full rigor mortis occurred earlier in RG and SO than in WG both at 37 degrees C and at 25 degrees C even though RG and WG were portions of the same muscle. This suggests that rigor mortis directly reflects the postmortem intramuscular ATP level, which decreases more rapidly in red muscle than in white muscle after death. Rigor mortis was more retarded at 25 degrees C than at 37 degrees C in each type of muscle.

Rectenna thermal model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kadiramangalam, Murall; Alden, Adrian; Speyer, Daniel

1992-01-01

Deploying rectennas in space requires adapting existing designs developed for terrestrial applications to the space environment. One of the major issues in doing so is to understand the thermal performance of existing designs in the space environment. Toward that end, a 3D rectenna thermal model has been developed, which involves analyzing shorted rectenna elements and finite size rectenna element arrays. A shorted rectenna element is a single element whose ends are connected together by a material of negligible thermal resistance. A shorted element is a good approximation to a central element of a large array. This model has been applied to Brown's 2.45 GHz rectenna design. Results indicate that Brown's rectenna requires redesign or some means of enhancing the heat dissipation in order for the diode temperature to be maintained below 200 C above an output power density of 620 W/sq.m. The model developed in this paper is very general and can be used for the analysis and design of any type of rectenna design of any frequency.

Model-based verification and validation of the SMAP uplink processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M. O.; Dubos, G. F.; Tirona, J.; Standley, S.

Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is being used increasingly within the spacecraft design community because of its benefits when compared to document-based approaches. As the complexity of projects expands dramatically with continually increasing computational power and technology infusion, the time and effort needed for verification and validation (V& V) increases geometrically. Using simulation to perform design validation with system-level models earlier in the life cycle stands to bridge the gap between design of the system (based on system-level requirements) and verifying those requirements/validating the system as a whole. This case study stands as an example of how a project can validate a system-level design earlier in the project life cycle than traditional V& V processes by using simulation on a system model. Specifically, this paper describes how simulation was added to a system model of the Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission's uplink process. Also discussed are the advantages and disadvantages of the methods employed and the lessons learned; which are intended to benefit future model-based and simulation-based development efforts.

JEDI Wind Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Wind Models JEDI Wind Models The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Wind model allows the user to estimate economic development impacts from wind power generation projects. JEDI Wind has default information that can be used to run a generic impacts analysis assuming wind industry averages

[An earlier diagnosis of depression].

PubMed

Campagne, D M

Data of the last decade indicate that, in the Western world and also in Spain, an important part of general practicioners' consultations are related to mental health, but depression is consistently underdiagnosed. Causes are lack of time and back-up, as well as lack of specific training. In Spain, there is no national health service primary care database with actualized clinical information as to mental health. There is evident clinical interest in a more agile diagnostic, resulting from a recollection of data from voluntary selective screening and continuing evaluation of adult depression along the model used by other National Health Systems. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Yield model development project implementation plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ambroziak, R. A.

1982-01-01

Tasks remaining to be completed are summarized for the following major project elements: (1) evaluation of crop yield models; (2) crop yield model research and development; (3) data acquisition processing, and storage; (4) related yield research: defining spectral and/or remote sensing data requirements; developing input for driving and testing crop growth/yield models; real time testing of wheat plant process models) and (5) project management and support.

Age of diagnosis of breast cancer in china: almost 10 years earlier than in the United States and the European union.

PubMed

Song, Qing-Kun; Li, Jing; Huang, Rong; Fan, Jin-Hu; Zheng, Rong-Shou; Zhang, Bao-Ning; Zhang, Bin; Tang, Zhong-Hua; Xie, Xiao-Ming; Yang, Hong-Jian; He, Jian-Jun; Li, Hui; Li, Jia-Yuan; Qiao, You-Lin; Chen, Wan-Qing

2014-01-01

The study aimed to describe the age distribution of breast cancer diagnosis among Chinese females for comparison with the United States and the European Union, and provide evidence for the screening target population in China. Median age was estimated from hospital databases from 7 tertiary hospitals in China. Population-based data in China, United States and European Union was extracted from the National Central Cancer Registry, SEER program and GLOBOCAN 2008, respectively. Age-standardized distribution of breast cancer at diagnosis in the 3 areas was estimated based on the World Standard Population 2000. The median age of breast cancer at diagnosis was around 50 in China, nearly 10 years earlier than United States and European Union. The diagnosis age in China did not vary between subgroups of calendar year, region and pathological characteristics. With adjustment for population structure, median age of breast cancer at diagnosis was 50~54 in China, but 55~59 in United States and European Union. The median diagnosis age of female breast cancer is much earlier in China than in the United States and the European Union pointing to racial differences in genetics and lifestyle. Screening programs should start at an earlier age for Chinese women and age disparities between Chinese and Western women warrant further studies.

Decreased length of stay and earlier oral feeding associated with standardized postoperative clinical care for total gastrectomies at a cancer center.

PubMed

Selby, Luke V; Rifkin, Marissa B; Yoon, Sam S; Ariyan, Charlotte E; Strong, Vivian E

2016-09-01

Standardization of postoperative care has been shown to decrease postoperative length of stay. In June 2009, we standardized postoperative care for all gastrectomies at our institution. Four years' worth of total gastrectomies (2 years prior to standardization and 2 years after standardization) were reviewed to determine the effect of standardization on postoperative care, length of stay, complications, and readmissions. Between June 2007 and July 2011, 99 patients underwent curative intent open total gastrectomy: 51 patients prior to standardization, and 48 patients poststandardization. Patients were predominantly male (70%); median age was 63; and median body mass index was 26. Standardization of postoperative care was associated with a decrease in median time to beginning both clear liquids and a postgastrectomy diet, earlier removal of epidural catheters, earlier use of oral pain medication, less time receiving intravenous fluids, and decreased length of stay (all P < .01). Groups showed no differences in complication rates, complication severity, diet intolerance, return to our Urgent Care Center, or readmission. Institution of standardized postoperative orders for total gastrectomy was associated with a significantly decreased length of stay and earlier oral feeding without increasing postoperative complications, early postoperative outpatient visits, or readmissions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Place-Based Investment Model of Talent Development: A Proposed Model for Developing and Reinvesting Talents within the Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paul, Kristina Ayers; Seward, Kristen K.

2016-01-01

The place-based investment model (PBIM) of talent development is a programming model for developing talents of high-potential youth in ways that could serve as an investment in the community. In this article, we discuss the PBIM within rural contexts. The model is grounded in three theories--Moon's personal talent development theory, Sternberg's…

In-Vehicle Information Systems Behavioral Model and Design Support: IVIS Demand Prototype Software User's Manual

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-03-06

The purpose of this research was to develop a behavioral model and prototype computer program for evaluation of modern in-vehicle information systems (IVIS). These systems differ from earlier in-vehicle instruments and displays in that they may requi...

Thermal Model Development for Ares I-X

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amundsen, Ruth M.; DelCorso, Joe

2008-01-01

Thermal analysis for the Ares I-X vehicle has involved extensive thermal model integration, since thermal models of vehicle elements came from several different NASA and industry organizations. Many valuable lessons were learned in terms of model integration and validation. Modeling practices such as submodel, analysis group and symbol naming were standardized to facilitate the later model integration. Upfront coordination of coordinate systems, timelines, units, symbols and case scenarios was very helpful in minimizing integration rework. A process for model integration was developed that included pre-integration runs and basic checks of both models, and a step-by-step process to efficiently integrate one model into another. Extensive use of model logic was used to create scenarios and timelines for avionics and air flow activation. Efficient methods of model restart between case scenarios were developed. Standardization of software version and even compiler version between organizations was found to be essential. An automated method for applying aeroheating to the full integrated vehicle model, including submodels developed by other organizations, was developed.

Accessing Real-Life Episodic Information from Minutes versus Hours Earlier Modulates Hippocampal and High-Order Cortical Dynamics

PubMed Central

Chen, J.; Honey, C. J.; Simony, E.; Arcaro, M. J.; Norman, K. A.; Hasson, U.

2016-01-01

It is well known that formation of new episodic memories depends on hippocampus, but in real-life settings (e.g., conversation), hippocampal amnesics can utilize information from several minutes earlier. What neural systems outside hippocampus might support this minutes-long retention? In this study, subjects viewed an audiovisual movie continuously for 25 min; another group viewed the movie in 2 parts separated by a 1-day delay. Understanding Part 2 depended on retrieving information from Part 1, and thus hippocampus was required in the day-delay condition. But is hippocampus equally recruited to access the same information from minutes earlier? We show that accessing memories from a few minutes prior elicited less interaction between hippocampus and default mode network (DMN) cortical regions than accessing day-old memories of identical events, suggesting that recent information was available with less reliance on hippocampal retrieval. Moreover, the 2 groups evinced reliable but distinct DMN activity timecourses, reflecting differences in information carried in these regions when Part 1 was recent versus distant. The timecourses converged after 4 min, suggesting a time frame over which the continuous-viewing group may have relied less on hippocampal retrieval. We propose that cortical default mode regions can intrinsically retain real-life episodic information for several minutes. PMID:26240179

Development and Application of ANN Model for Worker Assignment into Virtual Cells of Large Sized Configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murali, R. V.; Puri, A. B.; Fathi, Khalid

2010-10-01

This paper presents an extended version of study already undertaken on development of an artificial neural networks (ANNs) model for assigning workforce into virtual cells under virtual cellular manufacturing systems (VCMS) environments. Previously, the same authors have introduced this concept and applied it to virtual cells of two-cell configuration and the results demonstrated that ANNs could be a worth applying tool for carrying out workforce assignments. In this attempt, three-cell configurations problems are considered for worker assignment task. Virtual cells are formed under dual resource constraint (DRC) context in which the number of available workers is less than the total number of machines available. Since worker assignment tasks are quite non-linear and highly dynamic in nature under varying inputs & conditions and, in parallel, ANNs have the ability to model complex relationships between inputs and outputs and find similar patterns effectively, an attempt was earlier made to employ ANNs into the above task. In this paper, the multilayered perceptron with feed forward (MLP-FF) neural network model has been reused for worker assignment tasks of three-cell configurations under DRC context and its performance at different time periods has been analyzed. The previously proposed worker assignment model has been reconfigured and cell formation solutions available for three-cell configuration in the literature are used in combination to generate datasets for training ANNs framework. Finally, results of the study have been presented and discussed.

[Does childhood obesity affect sexual development?].

PubMed

Wagner, I V; Sergeyev, E; Dittrich, K; Gesing, J; Neef, M; Adler, M; Geserick, M; Pfäffle, R W; Körner, A; Kiess, W

2013-04-01

The process of pubertal development is only partly understood and is influenced by many different factors. During the twentieth century there was a general trend toward earlier pubertal development. Fat mass is thought to be a major inducer of puberty. Owing to the rising epidemic of childhood obesity, the relationship between body composition in children and the rate and timing of puberty needs to be investigated. Some studies suggest that central obesity is associated with an earlier onset of pubertal development. Rapid weight gain in early life is linked to advanced puberty in both sexes. A clear correlation exists between increasing body mass index (BMI) and earlier pubertal development in girls. In boys the data are controversial: The majority of studies propose that there is an earlier puberty and voice break in obese boys, but some studies show the opposite. There are several factors and mechanisms that seem to link obesity and puberty, for example, leptin, adipocytokines, and gut peptides. Important players include genetic variation and environmental factors (e.g., endocrine-disrupting chemicals). This article presents the latest studies and evidence on this topic, underlining the inconsistencies in the data and, therefore, the need for further research in this area.

A Generic Modeling Process to Support Functional Fault Model Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maul, William A.; Hemminger, Joseph A.; Oostdyk, Rebecca; Bis, Rachael A.

2016-01-01

Functional fault models (FFMs) are qualitative representations of a system's failure space that are used to provide a diagnostic of the modeled system. An FFM simulates the failure effect propagation paths within a system between failure modes and observation points. These models contain a significant amount of information about the system including the design, operation and off nominal behavior. The development and verification of the models can be costly in both time and resources. In addition, models depicting similar components can be distinct, both in appearance and function, when created individually, because there are numerous ways of representing the failure space within each component. Generic application of FFMs has the advantages of software code reuse: reduction of time and resources in both development and verification, and a standard set of component models from which future system models can be generated with common appearance and diagnostic performance. This paper outlines the motivation to develop a generic modeling process for FFMs at the component level and the effort to implement that process through modeling conventions and a software tool. The implementation of this generic modeling process within a fault isolation demonstration for NASA's Advanced Ground System Maintenance (AGSM) Integrated Health Management (IHM) project is presented and the impact discussed.

Modeling Rabbit Responses to Single and Multiple Aerosol ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Journal Article Survival models are developed here to predict response and time-to-response for mortality in rabbits following exposures to single or multiple aerosol doses of Bacillus anthracis spores. Hazard function models were developed for a multiple dose dataset to predict the probability of death through specifying dose-response functions and the time between exposure and the time-to-death (TTD). Among the models developed, the best-fitting survival model (baseline model) has an exponential dose-response model with a Weibull TTD distribution. Alternative models assessed employ different underlying dose-response functions and use the assumption that, in a multiple dose scenario, earlier doses affect the hazard functions of each subsequent dose. In addition, published mechanistic models are analyzed and compared with models developed in this paper. None of the alternative models that were assessed provided a statistically significant improvement in fit over the baseline model. The general approach utilizes simple empirical data analysis to develop parsimonious models with limited reliance on mechanistic assumptions. The baseline model predicts TTDs consistent with reported results from three independent high-dose rabbit datasets. More accurate survival models depend upon future development of dose-response datasets specifically designed to assess potential multiple dose effects on response and time-to-response. The process used in this paper to dev

In-vehicle Information Systems Behavioral Model and Design Support: IVIS Demand Prototype Software User’s Manual

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-03-06

The purpose of this research was to develop a behavioral model and prototype computer program for evaluation of modern in-vehicle information systems (IVIS). These systems differ from earlier in-vehicle instruments and displays in that they may requi...

Differential geometry based solvation model. III. Quantum formulation

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhan; Wei, Guo-Wei

2011-01-01

Solvation is of fundamental importance to biomolecular systems. Implicit solvent models, particularly those based on the Poisson-Boltzmann equation for electrostatic analysis, are established approaches for solvation analysis. However, ad hoc solvent-solute interfaces are commonly used in the implicit solvent theory. Recently, we have introduced differential geometry based solvation models which allow the solvent-solute interface to be determined by the variation of a total free energy functional. Atomic fixed partial charges (point charges) are used in our earlier models, which depends on existing molecular mechanical force field software packages for partial charge assignments. As most force field models are parameterized for a certain class of molecules or materials, the use of partial charges limits the accuracy and applicability of our earlier models. Moreover, fixed partial charges do not account for the charge rearrangement during the solvation process. The present work proposes a differential geometry based multiscale solvation model which makes use of the electron density computed directly from the quantum mechanical principle. To this end, we construct a new multiscale total energy functional which consists of not only polar and nonpolar solvation contributions, but also the electronic kinetic and potential energies. By using the Euler-Lagrange variation, we derive a system of three coupled governing equations, i.e., the generalized Poisson-Boltzmann equation for the electrostatic potential, the generalized Laplace-Beltrami equation for the solvent-solute boundary, and the Kohn-Sham equations for the electronic structure. We develop an iterative procedure to solve three coupled equations and to minimize the solvation free energy. The present multiscale model is numerically validated for its stability, consistency and accuracy, and is applied to a few sets of molecules, including a case which is difficult for existing solvation models. Comparison is made

What is a new drug worth? An innovative model for performance-based pricing.

PubMed

Dranitsaris, G; Dorward, K; Owens, R C; Schipper, H

2015-05-01

This article focuses on a novel method to derive prices for new pharmaceuticals by making price a function of drug performance. We briefly review current models for determining price for a new product and discuss alternatives that have historically been favoured by various funding bodies. The progressive approach to drug pricing, proposed herein, may better address the views and concerns of multiple stakeholders in a developed healthcare system by acknowledging and incorporating input from disparate parties via comprehensive and successive negotiation stages. In proposing a valid construct for performance-based pricing, the following model seeks to achieve several crucial objectives: earlier and wider access to new treatments; improved transparency in drug pricing; multi-stakeholder involvement through phased pricing negotiations; recognition of innovative product performance and latent changes in value; an earlier and more predictable return for developers without sacrificing total return on investment (ROI); more involved and informed risk sharing by the end-user. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quadruple cancer including Bowen's disease after arsenic injections 40 years earlier: report of a case.

PubMed

Murata, K; Iwazawa, T; Takayama, T; Yamashita, K; Okagawa, K

1994-01-01

This report describes the successful treatment of quadruple cancer including Bowen's disease in a 71-year-old man who had been given injections of salvarsan, an arsenic compound, for syphilis more than 40 years earlier. Resection of a skin lesion on his chest subsequently confirmed a diagnosis of Bowen's disease, 3 years after which he was operated on for concurrent gastric cancer and sigmoid colon cancer. A fourth cancer was discovered on his left vocal cord 2 weeks after this operation; it was resected 2 years later. A discussion of multiple malignant neoplasms and the possible relationship between arsenic and cancer is presented following this case report.

Predictability and possible earlier awareness of extreme precipitation across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavers, David; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David; Zsoter, Ervin

2017-04-01

Extreme hydrological events can cause large socioeconomic damages in Europe. In winter, a large proportion of these flood episodes are associated with atmospheric rivers, a region of intense water vapour transport within the warm sector of extratropical cyclones. When preparing for such extreme events, forecasts of precipitation from numerical weather prediction models or river discharge forecasts from hydrological models are generally used. Given the strong link between water vapour transport (integrated vapour transport IVT) and heavy precipitation, it is possible that IVT could be used to warn of extreme events. Furthermore, as IVT is located in extratropical cyclones, it is hypothesized to be a more predictable variable due to its link with synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics. In this research, we firstly provide an overview of the predictability of IVT and precipitation forecasts, and secondly introduce and evaluate the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT. The EFI is a tool that has been developed to evaluate how ensemble forecasts differ from the model climate, thus revealing the extremeness of the forecast. The ability of the IVT EFI to capture extreme precipitation across Europe during winter 2013/14, 2014/15, and 2015/16 is presented. The results show that the IVT EFI is more capable than the precipitation EFI of identifying extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. However, the precipitation EFI is superior during the negative NAO phase and at shorter lead times. An IVT EFI example is shown for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlighting its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes.

Model-Based Verification and Validation of the SMAP Uplink Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khan, M. Omair; Dubos, Gregory F.; Tirona, Joseph; Standley, Shaun

2013-01-01

This case study stands as an example of how a project can validate a system-level design earlier in the project life cycle than traditional V&V processes by using simulation on a system model. Specifically, this paper describes how simulation was added to a system model of the Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission's uplink process.Also discussed are the advantages and disadvantages of the methods employed and the lessons learned; which are intended to benefit future model-based and simulation-based V&V development efforts.

Inducer analysis/pump model development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Gary C.

1994-03-01

Current design of high performance turbopumps for rocket engines requires effective and robust analytical tools to provide design information in a productive manner. The main goal of this study was to develop a robust and effective computational fluid dynamics (CFD) pump model for general turbopump design and analysis applications. A finite difference Navier-Stokes flow solver, FDNS, which includes an extended k-epsilon turbulence model and appropriate moving zonal interface boundary conditions, was developed to analyze turbulent flows in turbomachinery devices. In the present study, three key components of the turbopump, the inducer, impeller, and diffuser, were investigated by the proposed pump model, and the numerical results were benchmarked by the experimental data provided by Rocketdyne. For the numerical calculation of inducer flows with tip clearance, the turbulence model and grid spacing are very important. Meanwhile, the development of the cross-stream secondary flow, generated by curved blade passage and the flow through tip leakage, has a strong effect on the inducer flow. Hence, the prediction of the inducer performance critically depends on whether the numerical scheme of the pump model can simulate the secondary flow pattern accurately or not. The impeller and diffuser, however, are dominated by pressure-driven flows such that the effects of turbulence model and grid spacing (except near leading and trailing edges of blades) are less sensitive. The present CFD pump model has been proved to be an efficient and robust analytical tool for pump design due to its very compact numerical structure (requiring small memory), fast turnaround computing time, and versatility for different geometries.

Inducer analysis/pump model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng, Gary C.

1994-01-01

Current design of high performance turbopumps for rocket engines requires effective and robust analytical tools to provide design information in a productive manner. The main goal of this study was to develop a robust and effective computational fluid dynamics (CFD) pump model for general turbopump design and analysis applications. A finite difference Navier-Stokes flow solver, FDNS, which includes an extended k-epsilon turbulence model and appropriate moving zonal interface boundary conditions, was developed to analyze turbulent flows in turbomachinery devices. In the present study, three key components of the turbopump, the inducer, impeller, and diffuser, were investigated by the proposed pump model, and the numerical results were benchmarked by the experimental data provided by Rocketdyne. For the numerical calculation of inducer flows with tip clearance, the turbulence model and grid spacing are very important. Meanwhile, the development of the cross-stream secondary flow, generated by curved blade passage and the flow through tip leakage, has a strong effect on the inducer flow. Hence, the prediction of the inducer performance critically depends on whether the numerical scheme of the pump model can simulate the secondary flow pattern accurately or not. The impeller and diffuser, however, are dominated by pressure-driven flows such that the effects of turbulence model and grid spacing (except near leading and trailing edges of blades) are less sensitive. The present CFD pump model has been proved to be an efficient and robust analytical tool for pump design due to its very compact numerical structure (requiring small memory), fast turnaround computing time, and versatility for different geometries.

Self-Identity Development Model of Oppressed People: Inclusive Model for All?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Highlen, Pamela S.; And Others

The Self-Identity Development Model of Oppressed People (SIDMOP) is a synthesis of several areas of psychology, including developmental, cross cultural, and spiritual literatures. SIDMOP provides an all-inclusive model of identity development for oppressed minorities in the United States, regardless of ethnicity. The model was formulated from the…

A Testbed for Model Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berry, J. A.; Van der Tol, C.; Kornfeld, A.

2014-12-01

Carbon cycle and land-surface models used in global simulations need to be computationally efficient and have a high standard of software engineering. These models also make a number of scaling assumptions to simplify the representation of complex biochemical and structural properties of ecosystems. This makes it difficult to use these models to test new ideas for parameterizations or to evaluate scaling assumptions. The stripped down nature of these models also makes it difficult to "connect" with current disciplinary research which tends to be focused on much more nuanced topics than can be included in the models. In our opinion/experience this indicates the need for another type of model that can more faithfully represent the complexity ecosystems and which has the flexibility to change or interchange parameterizations and to run optimization codes for calibration. We have used the SCOPE (Soil Canopy Observation, Photochemistry and Energy fluxes) model in this way to develop, calibrate, and test parameterizations for solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence, OCS exchange and stomatal parameterizations at the canopy scale. Examples of the data sets and procedures used to develop and test new parameterizations are presented.

[Mathematical apparatus of the circuit theory in modeling of heat transfer upon extreme heating of an organism].

PubMed

2010-01-01

The mathematical model of heat transfer in whole-body hyperthermia, developed earlier by the author, has been refined using the mathematical apparatus of the circuit theory. The model can be used to calculate the temperature of each organ, which can increase the efficacy and safety of the immersion-convection technique of whole-body hyperthermia.

Modeling plant growth and development.

PubMed

Prusinkiewicz, Przemyslaw

2004-02-01

Computational plant models or 'virtual plants' are increasingly seen as a useful tool for comprehending complex relationships between gene function, plant physiology, plant development, and the resulting plant form. The theory of L-systems, which was introduced by Lindemayer in 1968, has led to a well-established methodology for simulating the branching architecture of plants. Many current architectural models provide insights into the mechanisms of plant development by incorporating physiological processes, such as the transport and allocation of carbon. Other models aim at elucidating the geometry of plant organs, including flower petals and apical meristems, and are beginning to address the relationship between patterns of gene expression and the resulting plant form.

M-Mode Ultrasound Reveals Earlier Gluteus Minimus Activity in Individuals With Chronic Hip Pain During a Step-down Task.

PubMed

Dieterich, Angela V; Deshon, Louise; Strauss, Geoffrey R; McKay, Jan; Pickard, Christine M

2016-04-01

Controlled laboratory study. The hip abductor muscles are important hip joint stabilizers. Hip joint pain may alter muscle recruitment. Motion-mode (M-mode) ultrasound enables noninvasive measurements of the onset of deep and superficial muscle motion, which is associated with activation onset. To compare (1) the onset of superficial and deep gluteus medius and gluteus minimus muscle motion relative to the instant of peak ground reaction force and (2) the level of swing-phase muscle motion during step-down between subjects with chronic hip pain and controls using M-mode ultrasound. Thirty-five subjects with anterior, nontraumatic hip pain for more than 6 months (mean ± SD age, 54 ± 9 years) and 35 controls (age, 57 ± 7 years) were scanned on the lateral hip of the leading leg during frontal step-down onto a force platform using M-mode ultrasound. Computerized motion detection with the Teager-Kaiser energy operator was applied on the gluteus minimus and the deep and superficial gluteus medius to determine the time lag between muscle motion onset and instant of peak ground reaction force and the level of gluteus minimus motion during the swing phase. Time lags and motion levels were averaged per subject, and t tests were used to determine between-group differences. In participants with hip pain, gluteus minimus motion onset was 103 milliseconds earlier (P = .002) and superficial gluteus medius motion was 70 milliseconds earlier (P = .047) than those in healthy control participants. The level of gluteus minimus swing-phase motion was higher with pain (P = .006). Increased gluteus minimus motion during the swing phase and earlier gluteus minimus and superficial gluteus medius motion in individuals with hip pain suggest an overall increase of muscle activity, possibly a protective behavior.

A Mathematical Model for the Middle Ear Ventilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molnárka, G.; Miletics, E. M.; Fücsek, M.

2008-09-01

The otitis media is one of the mostly existing illness for the children, therefore investigation of the human middle ear ventilation is an actual problem. In earlier investigations both experimental and theoretical approach one can find in ([l]-[3]). Here we give a new mathematical and computer model to simulate this ventilation process. This model able to describe the diffusion and flow processes simultaneously, therefore it gives more precise results than earlier models did. The article contains the mathematical model and some results of the simulation.

Modeling fixed and fluidized reactors for cassava starch Saccharification with immobilized enzyme

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zanin, G.M.; De Moraes, F.F.

1997-12-31

Cassava starch saccharification in fixed-and fluidized-bed reactors using immobilized enzyme was modeled in a previous paper using a simple model in which all dextrins were grouped in a single substrate. In that case, although good fit of the model to experimental data was obtained, physical inconsistency appeared as negative kinetic constants. In this work, a multisubstrate model, developed earlier for saccharification with free enzyme, is adapted for immobilized enzyme. This latter model takes into account the formation of intermediate substrates, which are dextrins competing for the catalytic site of the enzyme, reversibility of some reactions, inhibition by substrate and product,more » and the formation of isomaltose. Kinetic parameters to be used with this model were obtained from initial velocity saccharification tests using the immobilized enzyme and different liquefied starch concentrations. The new model was found to be valid for modeling both fixed- and fluidized-bed reactors. It did not present inconsistencies as the earlier one had and has shown that apparent glucose inhibition is about seven times higher in the fixed-bed than in fluidized-bed reactor. 13 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.« less

Software development: Stratosphere modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, H. C.

1977-01-01

A more comprehensive model for stratospheric chemistry and transport theory was developed for the purpose of aiding predictions of changes in the stratospheric ozone content as a consequence of natural and anthropogenic processes. This new and more advanced stratospheric model is time dependent and the dependent variables are zonal means of the relevant meteorological quantities which are functions of latitude and height. The model was constructed by the best mathematical approach on a large IBM S360 in American National Standard FORTRAN. It will be both a scientific tool and an assessment device used to evaluate other models. The interactions of dynamics, photochemistry and radiation in the stratosphere can be governed by a set of fundamental dynamical equations.

Development of a Scale to Measure Adults' Perceptions of Health: Preliminary Findings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Diamond, James J.; Becker, Julie A.; Arenson, Christine A.; Chambers, Christopher V.; Rosenthal, Michael P.

2007-01-01

Given the national agenda on chronic disease self-management, the goal of the project described in this brief report was to develop a scale that measured adult perceptions about health but did not focus on a specific condition. The Perception of Health Scale (PHS) is based on earlier work that used the Health Belief Model as a focus. The 15-item…

Pilipino American Identity Development Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nadal, Kevin L.

2004-01-01

This article examines the identity development of F/Pilipino Americans. Because of a distinct history and culture that differentiates them from other Asian groups, F/Pilipino Americans may experience a different ethnic identity development than other Asian Americans. A nonlinear 6-stage ethnic identity development model is proposed to promote…

Developing a Model Component

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fields, Christina M.

2013-01-01

The Spaceport Command and Control System (SCCS) Simulation Computer Software Configuration Item (CSCI) is,. responsible for providing simulations to support test and verification of SCCS hardware and software. The Universal Coolant Transporter System (UCTS) is a Space Shuttle Orbiter support piece of the Ground Servicing Equipment (GSE). The purpose of the UCTS is to provide two support services to the Space Shuttle Orbiter immediately after landing at the Shuttle Landing Facility. The Simulation uses GSE Models to stand in for the actual systems to support testing of SCCS systems s:luring their development. As an intern at KSC, my assignment was to develop a model component for the UCTS. I was given a fluid component (drier) to model in Matlab. The drier was a Catch All replaceable core type filter-drier. The filter-drier provides maximum protection for the thermostatic expansion valve and solenoid valve from dirt that may be in the system. The filter-drier also protects the valves from freezing up. I researched fluid dynamics to understand the function of my component. I completed training for UNIX and Simulink to help aid in my assignment. The filter-drier was modeled by determining affects it has on the pressure, velocity and temperature of the system. I used Bernoulli's Equation to calculate the pressure and velocity differential through the dryer. I created my model filter-drier in Simulink and wrote the test script to test the component. I completed component testing and captured test data. The finalized model was sent for peer review for any improvements.

Transcriptional analysis of micronutrient zinc-associated response for enhanced carbohydrate utilization and earlier solventogenesis in Clostridium acetobutylicum.

PubMed

Wu, You-Duo; Xue, Chuang; Chen, Li-Jie; Wan, Hui-Hui; Bai, Feng-Wu

2015-11-20

The micronutrient zinc plays vital roles in ABE fermentation by Clostridium acetobutylicum. In order to elucidate the zinc-associated response for enhanced glucose utilization and earlier solventogenesis, transcriptional analysis was performed on cells grown in glucose medium at the exponential growth phase of 16 h without/with supplementary zinc. Correspondingly, the gene glcG (CAC0570) encoding a glucose-specific PTS was significantly upregulated accompanied with the other two genes CAC1353 and CAC1354 for glucose transport in the presence of zinc. Additionally, genes involved in the metabolisms of six other carbohydrates (maltose, cellobiose, fructose, mannose, xylose and arabinose) were differentially expressed, indicating that the regulatory effect of micronutrient zinc is carbohydrate-specific with respects to the improved/inhibited carbohydrate utilization. More importantly, multiple genes responsible for glycolysis (glcK and pykA), acidogenesis (thlA, crt, etfA, etfB and bcd) and solventogenesis (ctfB and bdhA) of C. acetobutylicum prominently responded to the supplementary zinc at differential expression levels. Comparative analysis of intracellular metabolites revealed that the branch node intermediates such as acetyl-CoA, acetoacetyl-CoA, butyl-CoA, and reducing power NADH remained relatively lower whereas more ATP was generated due to enhanced glycolysis pathway and earlier initiation of solventogenesis, suggesting that the micronutrient zinc-associated response for the selected intracellular metabolisms is significantly pleiotropic.

Developing and implementing the use of predictive models for estimating water quality at Great Lakes beaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Francy, Donna S.; Brady, Amie M.G.; Carvin, Rebecca B.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fuller, Lori M.; Harrison, John H.; Hayhurst, Brett A.; Lant, Jeremiah; Nevers, Meredith B.; Terrio, Paul J.; Zimmerman, Tammy M.

2013-01-01

that had at least 2 years of data (2010-11 and sometimes earlier) and for 1 beach that had 1 year of data. For most models, software designed for model development by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Virtual Beach) was used. The selected model for each beach was based on a combination of explanatory variables including, most commonly, turbidity, day of the year, change in lake level over 24 hours, wave height, wind direction and speed, and antecedent rainfall for various time periods. Forty-two predictive models were validated against data collected during an independent year (2012) and compared to the current method for assessing recreational water quality-using the previous day’s E. coli concentration (persistence model). Goals for good predictive-model performance were responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the persistence model and overall correct responses greater than or equal to 80 percent, sensitivities (percentage of exceedances of the bathing-water standard that were correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 50 percent, and specificities (percentage of nonexceedances correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 85 percent. Out of 42 predictive models, 24 models yielded over-all correct responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the use of the persistence model. Predictive-model responses met the performance goals more often than the persistence-model responses in terms of overall correctness (28 versus 17 models, respectively), sensitivity (17 versus 4 models), and specificity (34 versus 25 models). Gaining knowledge of each beach and the factors that affect E. coli concentrations is important for developing good predictive models. Collection of additional years of data with a wide range of environmental conditions may also help to improve future model performance. The USGS will continue to work with local agencies in 2013 and beyond to develop and validate predictive models at beaches and

Validation of a Best-Fit Pharmacokinetic Model for Scopolamine Disposition after Intranasal Administration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, L.; Chow, D. S-L.; Tam, V.; Putcha, L.

2015-01-01

An intranasal gel formulation of scopolamine (INSCOP) was developed for the treatment of Motion Sickness. Bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) were determined per Investigative New Drug (IND) evaluation guidance by the Food and Drug Administration. Earlier, we reported the development of a PK model that can predict the relationship between plasma, saliva and urinary scopolamine (SCOP) concentrations using data collected from an IND clinical trial with INSCOP. This data analysis project is designed to validate the reported best fit PK model for SCOP by comparing observed and model predicted SCOP concentration-time profiles after administration of INSCOP.

Composable Framework Support for Software-FMEA Through Model Execution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kocsis, Imre; Patricia, Andras; Brancati, Francesco; Rossi, Francesco

2016-08-01

Performing Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA) during software architecture design is becoming a basic requirement in an increasing number of domains; however, due to the lack of standardized early design phase model execution, classic SW-FMEA approaches carry significant risks and are human effort-intensive even in processes that use Model-Driven Engineering.Recently, modelling languages with standardized executable semantics have emerged. Building on earlier results, this paper describes framework support for generating executable error propagation models from such models during software architecture design. The approach carries the promise of increased precision, decreased risk and more automated execution for SW-FMEA during dependability- critical system development.

Comprehensive model for the nucleus of Periodic Comet Tempel 2 and its activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sekanina, Zdenek

1991-01-01

A comprehensive synergistic physical model for the nucleus of Periodic Comet Tempel 2 was developed on the basis of observations carried out in 1988. The model includes the best possible estimates of the comet's bulk properties (including the dimensions and the approximate shape), information on its state of rotation, and the characterization of its activity. The model is shown to be consistent with all lines of evidence that are currently available, including relevant information from earlier apparitions.

Deformable human body model development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wray, W.O.; Aida, T.

1998-11-01

This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A Deformable Human Body Model (DHBM) capable of simulating a wide variety of deformation interactions between man and his environment has been developed. The model was intended to have applications in automobile safety analysis, soldier survivability studies and assistive technology development for the disabled. To date, we have demonstrated the utility of the DHBM in automobile safety analysis and are currently engaged in discussions with the U.S. military involving two additional applications. More specifically, the DHBM has beenmore » incorporated into a Virtual Safety Lab (VSL) for automobile design under contract to General Motors Corporation. Furthermore, we have won $1.8M in funding from the U.S. Army Medical Research and Material Command for development of a noninvasive intracranial pressure measurement system. The proposed research makes use of the detailed head model that is a component of the DHBM; the project duration is three years. In addition, we have been contacted by the Air Force Armstrong Aerospace Medical Research Laboratory concerning possible use of the DHBM in analyzing the loads and injury potential to pilots upon ejection from military aircraft. Current discussions with Armstrong involve possible LANL participation in a comparison between DHBM and the Air Force Articulated Total Body (ATB) model that is the current military standard.« less

A Computational Model of Spatial Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiraki, Kazuo; Sashima, Akio; Phillips, Steven

Psychological experiments on children's development of spatial knowledge suggest experience at self-locomotion with visual tracking as important factors. Yet, the mechanism underlying development is unknown. We propose a robot that learns to mentally track a target object (i.e., maintaining a representation of an object's position when outside the field-of-view) as a model for spatial development. Mental tracking is considered as prediction of an object's position given the previous environmental state and motor commands, and the current environment state resulting from movement. Following Jordan & Rumelhart's (1992) forward modeling architecture the system consists of two components: an inverse model of sensory input to desired motor commands; and a forward model of motor commands to desired sensory input (goals). The robot was tested on the `three cups' paradigm (where children are required to select the cup containing the hidden object under various movement conditions). Consistent with child development, without the capacity for self-locomotion the robot's errors are self-center based. When given the ability of self-locomotion the robot responds allocentrically.

Non-LTE models of Titan's upper atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yelle, Roger V.

1991-01-01

Models for the thermal structure of Titan's upper atmosphere, between 0.1 mbar and 0.01 nbar are presented. The calculations include non-LTE heating/cooling in the rotation-vibration bands of CH4, C2H2, and C2H6, absorption of solar IR radiation in the near-IR bands of CH4 and subsequent cascading to the nu-4 band of CH4, absorption of solar EUV and UV radiation, thermal conduction and cooling by HCN rotational lines. Unlike earlier models, the calculated exospheric temperature agrees well with observations, because of the importance of HCN cooling. The calculations predict a well-developed mesopause with a temperature of 135-140 K at an altitude of approximately 600 km and pressure of about 0.1 microbar. The mesopause is at a higher pressure than predicted by earlier calculations because non-LTE radiative transfer in the rotation-vibration bands of CH4, C2H2, and C2H6 is treated in an accurate manner. The accuracy of the LTE approximation for source functions and heating rates is discussed.

Development of NASA's Models and Simulations Standard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bertch, William J.; Zang, Thomas A.; Steele, Martin J.

2008-01-01

From the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation, there were several NASA-wide actions that were initiated. One of these actions was to develop a standard for development, documentation, and operation of Models and Simulations. Over the course of two-and-a-half years, a team of NASA engineers, representing nine of the ten NASA Centers developed a Models and Simulation Standard to address this action. The standard consists of two parts. The first is the traditional requirements section addressing programmatics, development, documentation, verification, validation, and the reporting of results from both the M&S analysis and the examination of compliance with this standard. The second part is a scale for evaluating the credibility of model and simulation results using levels of merit associated with 8 key factors. This paper provides an historical account of the challenges faced by and the processes used in this committee-based development effort. This account provides insights into how other agencies might approach similar developments. Furthermore, we discuss some specific applications of models and simulations used to assess the impact of this standard on future model and simulation activities.

Generalized memory associativity in a network model for the neuroses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wedemann, Roseli S.; Donangelo, Raul; de Carvalho, Luís A. V.

2009-03-01

We review concepts introduced in earlier work, where a neural network mechanism describes some mental processes in neurotic pathology and psychoanalytic working-through, as associative memory functioning, according to the findings of Freud. We developed a complex network model, where modules corresponding to sensorial and symbolic memories interact, representing unconscious and conscious mental processes. The model illustrates Freud's idea that consciousness is related to symbolic and linguistic memory activity in the brain. We have introduced a generalization of the Boltzmann machine to model memory associativity. Model behavior is illustrated with simulations and some of its properties are analyzed with methods from statistical mechanics.

Attachment styles, earlier interpersonal relationships and schizotypy in a non-clinical sample.

PubMed

Berry, Katherine; Band, Rebecca; Corcoran, Rhiannon; Barrowclough, Christine; Wearden, Alison

2007-12-01

This paper investigates associations between adult attachment style, relationships with significant others during childhood, traumatic life-events and schizotypy. Relationships between attachment and hypothesized correlates were investigated in a cross-sectional design using an analogue sample. The reliability of the attachment and trauma measures was investigated using a test-retest design. Three hundred and four students completed the self-report version of the Psychosis Attachment Measure (PAM), maternal and paternal versions of the Parental Bonding Instrument, the Attachment History Questionnaire, a measure of trauma and the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experiences scale through an internet website. As predicted, there were statistically significant associations between insecure attachment in adult relationships and experiences of negative interpersonal events. Both earlier interpersonal experiences and adult attachment style predicted schizotypy, and adult attachment style emerged as an independent predictor of positive schizotypal characteristics. The findings support associations between adult attachment style and previous interpersonal experiences and between adult attachment and schizotypy. The PAM is a reliable and valid instrument that can be used to explore attachment styles in analogue samples and associations between attachment styles and psychotic symptoms in clinical samples.

Canadian Whole-Farm Model Holos - Development, Stakeholder Involvement, and Model Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroebel, R.; Janzen, H.; Beauchemin, K. A.

2017-12-01

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Holos model, based mostly on emission factors, aims to explore the effect of management on Canadian whole-farm greenhouse gas emissions. The model includes 27 commonly grown annual and perennial crops, summer fallow, grassland, and 8 types of tree plantings, along with beef, dairy, sheep, swine and other livestock or poultry operations. Model outputs encompass net emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O (in CO2 equivalents), calculated for various farm components. Where possible, algorithms are drawn from peer-reviewed publications. For consistency, Holos is aligned with the Canadian sustainability indicator and national greenhouse gas inventory objectives. Although primarily an exploratory tool for research, the model's design makes it accessible and instructive also to agricultural producers, educators, and policy makers. Model development, therefore, proceeds iteratively, with extensive stakeholder feedback from training sessions or annual workshops. To make the model accessible to diverse users, the team developed a multi-layered interface, with general farming scenarios for general use, but giving access to detailed coefficients and assumptions to researchers. The model relies on extensive climate, soil, and agronomic databases to populate regionally-applicable default values thereby minimizing keyboard entries. In an initial application, the model was used to assess greenhouse gas emissions from the Canadian beef production system; it showed that enteric methane accounted for 63% of total GHG emissions and that 84% of emissions originated from the cow-calf herd. The model further showed that GHG emission intensity per kg beef, nationally, declined by 14% from 1981 to 2011, owing to gains in production efficiency. Holos is now being used to consider further potential advances through improved rations or other management options. We are now aiming to expand into questions of grazing management, and are developing a novel carbon

Modelling oil plumes from subsurface spills.

PubMed

Lardner, Robin; Zodiatis, George

2017-11-15

An oil plume model to simulate the behavior of oil from spills located at any given depth below the sea surface is presented, following major modifications to a plume model developed earlier by Malačič (2001) and drawing on ideas in a paper by Yapa and Zheng (1997). The paper presents improvements in those models and numerical testing of the various parameters in the plume model. The plume model described in this paper is one of the numerous modules of the well-established MEDSLIK oil spill model. The deep blowout scenario of the MEDEXPOL 2013 oil spill modelling exercise, organized by REMPEC, has been applied using the improved oil plume module of the MEDSLIK model and inter-comparison with results having the oil spill source at the sea surface are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing Software Development Project Productivity Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipkin, Ilya

Software development is an increasingly influential factor in today's business environment, and a major issue affecting software development is how an organization estimates projects. If the organization underestimates cost, schedule, and quality requirements, the end results will not meet customer needs. On the other hand, if the organization overestimates these criteria, resources that could have been used more profitably will be wasted. There is no accurate model or measure available that can guide an organization in a quest for software development, with existing estimation models often underestimating software development efforts as much as 500 to 600 percent. To address this issue, existing models usually are calibrated using local data with a small sample size, with resulting estimates not offering improved cost analysis. This study presents a conceptual model for accurately estimating software development, based on an extensive literature review and theoretical analysis based on Sociotechnical Systems (STS) theory. The conceptual model serves as a solution to bridge organizational and technological factors and is validated using an empirical dataset provided by the DoD. Practical implications of this study allow for practitioners to concentrate on specific constructs of interest that provide the best value for the least amount of time. This study outlines key contributing constructs that are unique for Software Size E-SLOC, Man-hours Spent, and Quality of the Product, those constructs having the largest contribution to project productivity. This study discusses customer characteristics and provides a framework for a simplified project analysis for source selection evaluation and audit task reviews for the customers and suppliers. Theoretical contributions of this study provide an initial theory-based hypothesized project productivity model that can be used as a generic overall model across several application domains such as IT, Command and Control

WAM: an improved algorithm for modelling antibodies on the WEB.

PubMed

Whitelegg, N R; Rees, A R

2000-12-01

An improved antibody modelling algorithm has been developed which incorporates significant improvements to the earlier versions developed by Martin et al. (1989, 1991), Pedersen et al. (1992) and Rees et al. (1996) and known as AbM (Oxford Molecular). The new algorithm, WAM (for Web Antibody Modelling), has been launched as an online modelling service and is located at URL http://antibody.bath.ac.uk. Here we provide a summary only of the important features of WAM. Readers interested in further details are directed to the website, which gives extensive background information on the methods employed. A brief description of the rationale behind some of the newer methodology (specifically, the knowledge-based screens) is also given.

Voyager Development Test Model

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-07-05

This archival photo shows the encapsulation of the Voyager Development Test Model at NASA's Kennedy Space Center's Eastern Test Range. The picture was taken on October 8, 1976. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21730

Systems Models for Transportation Problems : Part 2. The Social Physics for Modern Societies - the Role of the Cities

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-09-01

The objective of the research was to make use of a physically based social systems model, developed earlier, to study the determinants of city sizes and their national interactions. In particular, information on the role of a transportation system in...

Orientation-dependent integral equation theory for a two-dimensional model of water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urbič, T.; Vlachy, V.; Kalyuzhnyi, Yu. V.; Dill, K. A.

2003-03-01

We develop an integral equation theory that applies to strongly associating orientation-dependent liquids, such as water. In an earlier treatment, we developed a Wertheim integral equation theory (IET) that we tested against NPT Monte Carlo simulations of the two-dimensional Mercedes Benz model of water. The main approximation in the earlier calculation was an orientational averaging in the multidensity Ornstein-Zernike equation. Here we improve the theory by explicit introduction of an orientation dependence in the IET, based upon expanding the two-particle angular correlation function in orthogonal basis functions. We find that the new orientation-dependent IET (ODIET) yields a considerable improvement of the predicted structure of water, when compared to the Monte Carlo simulations. In particular, ODIET predicts more long-range order than the original IET, with hexagonal symmetry, as expected for the hydrogen bonded ice in this model. The new theoretical approximation still errs in some subtle properties; for example, it does not predict liquid water's density maximum with temperature or the negative thermal expansion coefficient.

40 CFR 1039.102 - What exhaust emission standards and phase-in allowances apply for my engines in model year 2014...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... phase-in allowances apply for my engines in model year 2014 and earlier? 1039.102 Section 1039.102... year 2014 and earlier? The exhaust emission standards of this section apply for 2014 and earlier model... in paragraphs (a) and (b) of this section: (1) For each model year before 2014 noted in Tables 4...

Gsflow-py: An integrated hydrologic model development tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, M.; Niswonger, R. G.; Morton, C.; Henson, W.; Huntington, J. L.

2017-12-01

Integrated hydrologic modeling encompasses a vast number of processes and specifications, variable in time and space, and development of model datasets can be arduous. Model input construction techniques have not been formalized or made easily reproducible. Creating the input files for integrated hydrologic models (IHM) requires complex GIS processing of raster and vector datasets from various sources. Developing stream network topology that is consistent with the model resolution digital elevation model is important for robust simulation of surface water and groundwater exchanges. Distribution of meteorologic parameters over the model domain is difficult in complex terrain at the model resolution scale, but is necessary to drive realistic simulations. Historically, development of input data for IHM models has required extensive GIS and computer programming expertise which has restricted the use of IHMs to research groups with available financial, human, and technical resources. Here we present a series of Python scripts that provide a formalized technique for the parameterization and development of integrated hydrologic model inputs for GSFLOW. With some modifications, this process could be applied to any regular grid hydrologic model. This Python toolkit automates many of the necessary and laborious processes of parameterization, including stream network development and cascade routing, land coverages, and meteorological distribution over the model domain.

The Development of Novel Chemical Fragment-Based Descriptors Using Frequent Common Subgraph Mining Approach and Their Application in QSAR Modeling.

PubMed

Khashan, Raed; Zheng, Weifan; Tropsha, Alexander

2014-03-01

We present a novel approach to generating fragment-based molecular descriptors. The molecules are represented by labeled undirected chemical graph. Fast Frequent Subgraph Mining (FFSM) is used to find chemical-fragments (subgraphs) that occur in at least a subset of all molecules in a dataset. The collection of frequent subgraphs (FSG) forms a dataset-specific descriptors whose values for each molecule are defined by the number of times each frequent fragment occurs in this molecule. We have employed the FSG descriptors to develop variable selection k Nearest Neighbor (kNN) QSAR models of several datasets with binary target property including Maximum Recommended Therapeutic Dose (MRTD), Salmonella Mutagenicity (Ames Genotoxicity), and P-Glycoprotein (PGP) data. Each dataset was divided into training, test, and validation sets to establish the statistical figures of merit reflecting the model validated predictive power. The classification accuracies of models for both training and test sets for all datasets exceeded 75 %, and the accuracy for the external validation sets exceeded 72 %. The model accuracies were comparable or better than those reported earlier in the literature for the same datasets. Furthermore, the use of fragment-based descriptors affords mechanistic interpretation of validated QSAR models in terms of essential chemical fragments responsible for the compounds' target property. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Performance of preproduction model cesium beam frequency standards for spacecraft applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levine, M. W.

1978-01-01

A cesium beam frequency standards for spaceflight application on Navigation Development Satellites was designed and fabricated and preliminary testing was completed. The cesium standard evolved from an earlier prototype model launched aboard NTS-2 and the engineering development model to be launched aboard NTS satellites during 1979. A number of design innovations, including a hybrid analog/digital integrator and the replacement of analog filters and phase detectors by clocked digital sampling techniques are discussed. Thermal and thermal-vacuum testing was concluded and test data are presented. Stability data for 10 to 10,000 seconds averaging interval, measured under laboratory conditions, are shown.

Chiari malformation may increase perivascular cerebrospinal fluid flow into the spinal cord: A subject-specific computational modelling study.

PubMed

Lloyd, Robert A; Fletcher, David F; Clarke, Elizabeth C; Bilston, Lynne E

2017-12-08

Syringomyelia is associated with Chiari I malformation, although the mechanistic link is unclear. Studies have suggested that cerebrospinal fluid enters the spinal cord via the perivascular spaces, and that changes in the timing of the subarachnoid pressures may increase flow into the spinal cord. This study aims to determine how Chiari malformation and syringomyelia alter the subarachnoid space pressures and hence perivascular flow. Subject-specific models of healthy controls (N = 9), Chiari patients with (N = 7) and without (N = 8) syringomyelia, were developed from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), to simulate the subarachnoid pressures. These pressures were input to an idealised model of the perivascular space to evaluate potential differences in perivascular flow. Peak pressures in Chiari patients without a syrinx were higher than in controls (46% increase; p = .029) and arrived earlier in the cardiac cycle than both controls (2.58% earlier; p = .045) and syrinx patients (2.85% earlier; p = .045). The perivascular model predicted Chiari patients without a syrinx would have the greatest flow into the cord (p < .05) if the arterial pulse delay was between 4 and 10% of the cardiac cycle. Using phase-contrast MRI the mean arterial delay for all subjects was similar, and was estimated as 4.7 ± 0.2%. The perivascular pumping rate showed a strong positive correlation (R Adj 2 =0.85; p < .0001) with extended periods of high pressure that arrived earlier in the cardiac cycle, suggesting these pressure characteristics may play a role in syrinx development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Screening for Colorectal Cancer in African Americans: Determinants and Rationale for an Earlier Age to Commence Screening

PubMed Central

Carethers, John M.

2014-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is a highly cost-effective approach to reduce morbidity and mortality of patients, as well as reduce the prevalence of CRC in populations. Current recommendations for CRC screening for the asymptomatic general population begin at age 50 years, an age after which ~95% of cancers occur. Determinants that modify the timing and frequency for screening include a personal or family history of adenomatous polyps or CRC, the age of onset of these colonic lesions, and the presence or potential for a patient to harbor a higher-risk syndrome such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), or Lynch syndrome.. Although race, like family history, is a heritable factor, it has not engendered inclusion in the same broad systematic screening recommendations despite multiple studies demonstrating a disparity in the incidence and mortality from CRC, and the potential for targeted screening to reduce the disparity. In particular, African Americans, when compared to Caucasians, (a) have lower CRC screening utilization rates, (b) have an earlier presentation of CRC (0-8 years younger than Caucasians) and, more often have aggressive biological features more prone to metastasis, (c) have a higher CRC prevalence at all ages and a higher proportion of CRCs before 50 years of age (~11% vs 5% in Caucasians), (d) are less likely to know or transmit personal or family history of adenomas or CRC that might change their screening to an earlier age, (e) present with 7-15% excess right-sided CRCs that are not microsatellite unstable, (f) show higher frequencies of high-risk adenomas at every decile of age, and an excess of high-risk proximal adenomas that mirror the excess of proximal CRCs, (g) have cancers that demonstrate lower proportions of good prognostic biomarkers such as MSI and higher proportions of bad prognosticators such as EMAST, (h) may possess gut microbiota more conducive to initiating and/or propagating colonic

Initial geomagnetic field model from MAGSAT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Langel, R. A.; Estes, R. H.; Mead, G. D.; Fabiano, E. B.; Lancaster, E. R.

1980-01-01

Magsat data from magnetically quiet days were used to derive a thirteenth degree and order spherical harmonic geomagnetic field model, MGST(3/80). The model utilized both scalar and vector data and fit that data with standard deviations of 8, 52, 55 and 97 nT for the scalar magnitude, B sub r, B sub theta and B sub phi respectively. When compared with earlier models, the Earth's dipole moment continues to decrease at a rate of about 26 nT/year. Evaluation of earlier models with Magsat data shows that the scalar field at the Magsat epoch is best predicted by the POGO(2/72) model but that the AWC/75 and IGS/75 are better for predicting vector fields.

Developing a Model Component

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fields, Christina M.

2013-01-01

The Spaceport Command and Control System (SCCS) Simulation Computer Software Configuration Item (CSCI) is responsible for providing simulations to support test and verification of SCCS hardware and software. The Universal Coolant Transporter System (UCTS) was a Space Shuttle Orbiter support piece of the Ground Servicing Equipment (GSE). The initial purpose of the UCTS was to provide two support services to the Space Shuttle Orbiter immediately after landing at the Shuttle Landing Facility. The UCTS is designed with the capability of servicing future space vehicles; including all Space Station Requirements necessary for the MPLM Modules. The Simulation uses GSE Models to stand in for the actual systems to support testing of SCCS systems during their development. As an intern at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), my assignment was to develop a model component for the UCTS. I was given a fluid component (dryer) to model in Simulink. I completed training for UNIX and Simulink. The dryer is a Catch All replaceable core type filter-dryer. The filter-dryer provides maximum protection for the thermostatic expansion valve and solenoid valve from dirt that may be in the system. The filter-dryer also protects the valves from freezing up. I researched fluid dynamics to understand the function of my component. The filter-dryer was modeled by determining affects it has on the pressure and velocity of the system. I used Bernoulli's Equation to calculate the pressure and velocity differential through the dryer. I created my filter-dryer model in Simulink and wrote the test script to test the component. I completed component testing and captured test data. The finalized model was sent for peer review for any improvements. I participated in Simulation meetings and was involved in the subsystem design process and team collaborations. I gained valuable work experience and insight into a career path as an engineer.

Does earlier arrival of the retrieval team improve short-term outcomes in outborn extremely premature infants?

PubMed

Sharpe, Janet B; Davies, Mark W

2018-05-31

The risk of mortality and morbidity is increased in outborn, extremely premature infants. We aim to determine whether earlier arrival of the retrieval team after the birth of infants less than 29 weeks gestation improves short-term mortality and morbidity. This is a retrospective analysis of a cohort of infants less than 29 weeks gestation who were retrieved to the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital (RBWH) over a 5-year period. Demographic information regarding the infant and mother, retrieval team arrival time and outcome data was collected. Primary outcomes investigated were mortality prior to discharge from hospital or a composite of mortality or severe intraventricular haemorrhage (IVH). Data on 105 infants were analysed; 88 infants (83.8%) survived to discharge home, and 79 (75.2%) survived to discharge without severe IVH. On univariate analysis, there was no significant association between age at arrival of the retrieval team and death prior to discharge (P = 0.94) or death prior to discharge or severe IVH (P = 0.83). On logistic regression analysis, age at arrival of retrieval team remained non-significant for a reduction in death prior to discharge and composite of death or severe IVH (P = 0.70 and P = 0.99, respectively). The earlier arrival of the retrieval team is not associated with improved short-term outcomes in outborn, extremely preterm infants who are retrieved and admitted to a tertiary neonatal intensive care unit - for infants where the retrieval team arrived within about 8 h of birth. © 2018 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Development of Ensemble Model Based Water Demand Forecasting Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Hyun-Han; So, Byung-Jin; Kim, Seong-Hyeon; Kim, Byung-Seop

2014-05-01

In recent years, Smart Water Grid (SWG) concept has globally emerged over the last decade and also gained significant recognition in South Korea. Especially, there has been growing interest in water demand forecast and optimal pump operation and this has led to various studies regarding energy saving and improvement of water supply reliability. Existing water demand forecasting models are categorized into two groups in view of modeling and predicting their behavior in time series. One is to consider embedded patterns such as seasonality, periodicity and trends, and the other one is an autoregressive model that is using short memory Markovian processes (Emmanuel et al., 2012). The main disadvantage of the abovementioned model is that there is a limit to predictability of water demands of about sub-daily scale because the system is nonlinear. In this regard, this study aims to develop a nonlinear ensemble model for hourly water demand forecasting which allow us to estimate uncertainties across different model classes. The proposed model is consist of two parts. One is a multi-model scheme that is based on combination of independent prediction model. The other one is a cross validation scheme named Bagging approach introduced by Brieman (1996) to derive weighting factors corresponding to individual models. Individual forecasting models that used in this study are linear regression analysis model, polynomial regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS), SVM(support vector machine). The concepts are demonstrated through application to observed from water plant at several locations in the South Korea. Keywords: water demand, non-linear model, the ensemble forecasting model, uncertainty. Acknowledgements This subject is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment as "Projects for Developing Eco-Innovation Technologies (GT-11-G-02-001-6)

A toolbox and a record for scientific model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ellman, Thomas

1994-01-01

Scientific computation can benefit from software tools that facilitate construction of computational models, control the application of models, and aid in revising models to handle new situations. Existing environments for scientific programming provide only limited means of handling these tasks. This paper describes a two pronged approach for handling these tasks: (1) designing a 'Model Development Toolbox' that includes a basic set of model constructing operations; and (2) designing a 'Model Development Record' that is automatically generated during model construction. The record is subsequently exploited by tools that control the application of scientific models and revise models to handle new situations. Our two pronged approach is motivated by our belief that the model development toolbox and record should be highly interdependent. In particular, a suitable model development record can be constructed only when models are developed using a well defined set of operations. We expect this research to facilitate rapid development of new scientific computational models, to help ensure appropriate use of such models and to facilitate sharing of such models among working computational scientists. We are testing this approach by extending SIGMA, and existing knowledge-based scientific software design tool.

Modeling the Round Earth through Diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padalkar, Shamin; Ramadas, Jayashree

Earlier studies have found that students, including adults, have problems understanding the scientifically accepted model of the Sun-Earth-Moon system and explaining day-to-day astronomical phenomena based on it. We have been examining such problems in the context of recent research on visual-spatial reasoning. Working with middle school students in India, we have developed a pedagogical sequence to build the mental model of the Earth and tried it in three schools for socially and educationally disadvantaged students. This pedagogy was developed on the basis of (1) a reading of current research in imagery and visual-spatial reasoning and (2) students' difficulties identified during the course of pretests and interviews. Visual-spatial tools such as concrete (physical) models, gestures, and diagrams are used extensively in the teaching sequence. The building of a mental model is continually integrated with drawing inferences to understand and explain everyday phenomena. The focus of this article is inferences drawn with diagrams.

Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models.

PubMed

Eaton, Jeffrey W; Menzies, Nicolas A; Stover, John; Cambiano, Valentina; Chindelevitch, Leonid; Cori, Anne; Hontelez, Jan A C; Humair, Salal; Kerr, Cliff C; Klein, Daniel J; Mishra, Sharmistha; Mitchell, Kate M; Nichols, Brooke E; Vickerman, Peter; Bakker, Roel; Bärnighausen, Till; Bershteyn, Anna; Bloom, David E; Boily, Marie-Claude; Chang, Stewart T; Cohen, Ted; Dodd, Peter J; Fraser, Christophe; Gopalappa, Chaitra; Lundgren, Jens; Martin, Natasha K; Mikkelsen, Evelinn; Mountain, Elisa; Pham, Quang D; Pickles, Michael; Phillips, Andrew; Platt, Lucy; Pretorius, Carel; Prudden, Holly J; Salomon, Joshua A; van de Vijver, David A M C; de Vlas, Sake J; Wagner, Bradley G; White, Richard G; Wilson, David P; Zhang, Lei; Blandford, John; Meyer-Rath, Gesine; Remme, Michelle; Revill, Paul; Sangrujee, Nalinee; Terris-Prestholt, Fern; Doherty, Meg; Shaffer, Nathan; Easterbrook, Philippa J; Hirnschall, Gottfried; Hallett, Timothy B

2013-12-10

New WHO guidelines recommend ART initiation for HIV-positive persons with CD4 cell counts ≤500 cells/µL, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers must consider whether to further expand ART eligibility accordingly. We used multiple independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa, Zambia, India, and Vietnam-to evaluate the potential health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different adult ART eligibility criteria under scenarios of current and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses considered extending eligibility to include individuals with CD4 ≤500 cells/µL or all HIV-positive adults, compared to the previous recommendation of initiation with CD4 ≤350 cells/µL. We assessed costs from a health system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost per DALY averted ($/DALY) to compare competing strategies. Strategies were considered 'very cost-effective' if the $/DALY was less than the country's per capita gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040, Zambia: $1425, India: $1489, Vietnam: $1407) and 'cost-effective' if $/DALY was less than three times per capita GDP. In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending ART eligibility to CD4 ≤500 cells/µL ranged from $237 to $1691/DALY compared to 2010 guidelines; in Zambia, expanded eligibility ranged from improving health outcomes while reducing costs (i.e. dominating current guidelines) to $749/DALY. Results were similar in scenarios with substantially expanded treatment access and for expanding eligibility to all HIV-positive adults. Expanding treatment coverage in the general population was therefore found to be cost-effective. In India, eligibility for all HIV-positive persons ranged from $131 to $241/DALY and in Vietnam eligibility for CD4 ≤500 cells/µL cost $290/DALY. In concentrated epidemics, expanded access among key populations was also cost-effective. Earlier ART eligibility is estimated

An inhibitor of polyamine synthesis arrests cells at an earlier stage of G1 than does calcium deprivation.

PubMed Central

Cheetham, B F

1983-01-01

Methylglyoxal bis(guanylhydrazone) completely inhibits the induction of thymidine kinase after serum stimulation of quiescent fibroblasts only if added within 3 h after serum, whereas calcium deprivation blocks this induction up to 12 h after serum stimulation. Experiments in which one of these blocks was imposed as the other was released confirmed that cells blocked by methylglyoxal bis(guanylhydrazone) are arrested at an earlier stage in G1 than cells blocked by calcium deprivation. PMID:6843551

Formal Models of Word Recognition. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Travers, Jeffrey R.

Existing mathematical models of word recognition are reviewed and a new theory is proposed in this research. The new theory integrates earlier proposals within a single framework, sacrificing none of the predictive power of the earlier proposals, but offering a gain in theoretical economy. The theory holds that word recognition is accomplished by…

Expanding the Professional Development School Model: Developing Collaborative Partnerships with School Counselors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foust, Gretchen E.; Goslee, Patricia A.

2014-01-01

The Professional Development School (PDS) model, a successful collaborative partnership model between university teacher education programs and P-12 schools, focuses on ''preparing future educators, providing current educators with ongoing professional development, encouraging joint school-university faculty investigation of education-related…

Prognosis model for stand development

Treesearch

Albert R. Stage

1973-01-01

Describes a set of computer programs for developing prognoses of the development of existing stand under alternative regimes of management. Calibration techniques, modeling procedures, and a procedure for including stochastic variation are described. Implementation of the system for lodgepole pine, including assessment of losses attributed to an infestation of mountain...

Airframe Noise Sub-Component Definition and Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Golub, Robert A. (Technical Monitor); Sen, Rahul; Hardy, Bruce; Yamamoto, Kingo; Guo, Yue-Ping; Miller, Gregory

2004-01-01

Both in-house, and jointly with NASA under the Advanced Subsonic Transport (AST) program, Boeing Commerical Aircraft Company (BCA) had begun work on systematically identifying specific components of noise responsible for total airframe noise generation and applying the knowledge gained towards the creation of a model for airframe noise prediction. This report documents the continuation of the collection of database from model-scale and full-scale airframe noise measurements to compliment the earlier existing databases, the development of the subcomponent models and the generation of a new empirical prediction code. The airframe subcomponent data includes measurements from aircraft ranging in size from a Boeing 737 to aircraft larger than a Boeing 747 aircraft. These results provide the continuity to evaluate the technology developed under the AST program consistent with the guidelines set forth in NASA CR-198298.

A Model-Driven Development Method for Management Information Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizuno, Tomoki; Matsumoto, Keinosuke; Mori, Naoki

Traditionally, a Management Information System (MIS) has been developed without using formal methods. By the informal methods, the MIS is developed on its lifecycle without having any models. It causes many problems such as lack of the reliability of system design specifications. In order to overcome these problems, a model theory approach was proposed. The approach is based on an idea that a system can be modeled by automata and set theory. However, it is very difficult to generate automata of the system to be developed right from the start. On the other hand, there is a model-driven development method that can flexibly correspond to changes of business logics or implementing technologies. In the model-driven development, a system is modeled using a modeling language such as UML. This paper proposes a new development method for management information systems applying the model-driven development method to a component of the model theory approach. The experiment has shown that a reduced amount of efforts is more than 30% of all the efforts.

Kantian Model of Moral Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yun, Hyun Sub

A Kantian model of moral development already tested on adolescents was further tested on normal and delinquent Korean adults. The model, based on the philosophy of Kant, starts its causality from the self, moves from the self to parental images, advances from parental images to duty and legality, and moves from duty and legality to a moral…

A Development Model for Foreign Police

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-13

automated fingerprint identification system. And lastly, it sought to provide training to Malian and other regional police on countering money laundering and...A DEVELOPMENT MODEL FOR FOREIGN POLICE A thesis presented to the Faculty of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College in...13-06-2014 2. REPORT TYPE Master’s Thesis 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) AUG 2013 – JUNE 2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A DEVELOPMENT MODEL FOR

Presetting ECG electrodes for earlier heart rate detection in the delivery room.

PubMed

Gulati, Rashmi; Zayek, Michael; Eyal, Fabien

2018-07-01

To determine whether heart rate (HR) could be detected earlier than by pulse oximeter (POX), using a novel method of application of electrocardiogram (ECG) electrodes during neonatal resuscitation in the delivery room. ECG electrodes were set before delivery to be applied to the back of infants' thorax. Time to detect HR was recorded as soon as a numerical HR along with a recognizable and persistent QRS complex was observed on ECG monitor (HRECG) and a plethysmographic waveform was seen on POX monitor (HRPOX). Out of 334 infants, 49 were <31 weeks of gestational age. Overall, the median (interquartile range, IQR) time to detect HRECG was significantly shorter [29 (5, 60) seconds] than time by POX [60 (45,120) seconds], (p < 0.001). Similarly, in <31-week infants, the median (IQR) time to detect HRECG was 10 (2, 40) seconds compared to 60 (30,120) seconds by POX, (p < 0.001). Failure to have HR detected by 1 minute occurred in 30%, 54% and 20% of infants by ECG, POX and either of the devices, respectively. In the delivery room, electrodes applied by the study method are more effective than pulse oximetry in providing the neonatal team with timely HR information that is necessary for proper resuscitative actions. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Earlier Snowmelt Changes the Ratio Between Early and Late Season Forest Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowles, J. F.; Molotch, N. P.; Trujillo, E.; Litvak, M. E.

2017-12-01

Future projections of declining snowpack and increasing potential evaporation associated with climate warming are predicted to advance the timing of snowmelt in mountain ecosystems globally. This scenario has direct implications for snowmelt-driven forest productivity, but the net effect of temporally shifting moisture dynamics is unknown with respect to the annual carbon balance. Accordingly, this study uses both satellite- and tower-based observations to document the forest productivity response to snowpack and potential evaporation variability between 1989 and 2012 throughout the southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion, USA. These results show that a combination of low snow accumulation and record high potential evaporation in 2012 resulted in the 34-year minimum ecosystem productivity that could be indicative of future conditions. Moreover, early and late season productivity were significantly and inversely related, suggesting that future shifts toward earlier or reduced snowmelt could increase late-season moisture stress to vegetation and thus restrict productivity despite a longer growing season. This relationship was further subject to modification by summer precipitation, and the controls on the early/late season productivity ratio are explored within the context of ecosystem carbon storage in the future. Any perturbation to the carbon cycle at this scale represents a potential feedback to climate change since snow-covered forests represent an important global carbon sink.

Model-Driven Development of Safety Architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Denney, Ewen; Pai, Ganesh; Whiteside, Iain

2017-01-01

We describe the use of model-driven development for safety assurance of a pioneering NASA flight operation involving a fleet of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) flying beyond visual line of sight. The central idea is to develop a safety architecture that provides the basis for risk assessment and visualization within a safety case, the formal justification of acceptable safety required by the aviation regulatory authority. A safety architecture is composed from a collection of bow tie diagrams (BTDs), a practical approach to manage safety risk by linking the identified hazards to the appropriate mitigation measures. The safety justification for a given unmanned aircraft system (UAS) operation can have many related BTDs. In practice, however, each BTD is independently developed, which poses challenges with respect to incremental development, maintaining consistency across different safety artifacts when changes occur, and in extracting and presenting stakeholder specific information relevant for decision making. We show how a safety architecture reconciles the various BTDs of a system, and, collectively, provide an overarching picture of system safety, by considering them as views of a unified model. We also show how it enables model-driven development of BTDs, replete with validations, transformations, and a range of views. Our approach, which we have implemented in our toolset, AdvoCATE, is illustrated with a running example drawn from a real UAS safety case. The models and some of the innovations described here were instrumental in successfully obtaining regulatory flight approval.

Constraints and Opportunities in GCM Model Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, Gavin; Clune, Thomas

2010-01-01

Over the past 30 years climate models have evolved from relatively simple representations of a few atmospheric processes to complex multi-disciplinary system models which incorporate physics from bottom of the ocean to the mesopause and are used for seasonal to multi-million year timescales. Computer infrastructure over that period has gone from punchcard mainframes to modern parallel clusters. Constraints of working within an ever evolving research code mean that most software changes must be incremental so as not to disrupt scientific throughput. Unfortunately, programming methodologies have generally not kept pace with these challenges, and existing implementations now present a heavy and growing burden on further model development as well as limiting flexibility and reliability. Opportunely, advances in software engineering from other disciplines (e.g. the commercial software industry) as well as new generations of powerful development tools can be incorporated by the model developers to incrementally and systematically improve underlying implementations and reverse the long term trend of increasing development overhead. However, these methodologies cannot be applied blindly, but rather must be carefully tailored to the unique characteristics of scientific software development. We will discuss the need for close integration of software engineers and climate scientists to find the optimal processes for climate modeling.

Fuel cell system modeling for solid oxide fuel cell/gas turbine hybrid power plants, Part I: Modeling and simulation framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leucht, Florian; Bessler, Wolfgang G.; Kallo, Josef; Friedrich, K. Andreas; Müller-Steinhagen, H.

A sustainable future power supply requires high fuel-to-electricity conversion efficiencies even in small-scale power plants. A promising technology to reach this goal is a hybrid power plant in which a gas turbine (GT) is coupled with a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC). This paper presents a dynamic model of a pressurized SOFC system consisting of the fuel cell stack with combustion zone and balance-of-plant components such as desulphurization, humidification, reformer, ejector and heat exchangers. The model includes thermal coupling between the different components. A number of control loops for fuel and air flows as well as power management are integrated in order to keep the system within the desired operation window. Models and controls are implemented in a MATLAB/SIMULINK environment. Different hybrid cycles proposed earlier are discussed and a preferred cycle is developed. Simulation results show the prospects of the developed modeling and control system.

European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT) availability stochastic model: integrating failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), influence diagram, and Bayesian network together

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verzichelli, Gianluca

2016-08-01

An Availability Stochastic Model for the E-ELT has been developed in GeNIE. The latter is a Graphical User Interface (GUI) for the Structural Modeling, Inference, and Learning Engine (SMILE), originally distributed by the Decision Systems Laboratory from the University of Pittsburgh, and now being a product of Bayes Fusion, LLC. The E-ELT will be the largest optical/near-infrared telescope in the world. Its design comprises an Alt-Azimuth mount reflecting telescope with a 39-metre-diameter segmented primary mirror, a 4-metre-diameter secondary mirror, a 3.75-metre-diameter tertiary mirror, adaptive optics and multiple instruments. This paper highlights how a Model has been developed for an earlier on assessment of the Telescope Avail- ability. It also describes the modular structure and the underlying assumptions that have been adopted for developing the model and demonstrates the integration of FMEA, Influence Diagram and Bayesian Network elements. These have been considered for a better characterization of the Model inputs and outputs and for taking into account Degraded-based Reliability (DBR). Lastly, it provides an overview of how the information and knowledge captured in the model may be used for an earlier on definition of the Failure, Detection, Isolation and Recovery (FDIR) Control Strategy and the Telescope Minimum Master Equipment List (T-MMEL).

Development of a new global radiation belt model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sicard, Angelica; Boscher, Daniel; Bourdarie, Sébastien; Lazaro, Didier; Maget, Vincent; Ecoffet, Robert; Rolland, Guy; Standarovski, Denis

2017-04-01

The well known AP8 and AE8 NASA models are commonly used in the industry to specify the radiation belt environment. Unfortunately, there are some limitations in the use of these models, first due to the covered energy range, but also because in some regions of space, there are discrepancies between the predicted average values and the measurements. Therefore, our aim is to develop a radiation belt model, covering a large region of space and energy, from LEO altitudes to GEO and above, and from plasma to relativistic particles. The aim for the first version of this new model is to correct the AP8 and AE8 models where they are deficient or not defined. At geostationary, we developed ten years ago for electrons the IGE-2006 model which was proven to be more accurate than AE8, and used commonly in the industry, covering a broad energy range, from 1keV to 5MeV. From then, a proton model for geostationary orbit was also developed for material applications, followed by the OZONE model covering a narrower energy range but the whole outer electron belt, a SLOT model to asses average electron values for 2model, which provides high energy proton flux values at low altitudes. As most of these models were developed using more than a solar cycle of measurements, these measurements being checked, cross calibrated and filtered, we have no doubt that the obtained averages are more accurate than AP8 and AE8 for these particular locations. These local models were validated along different orbit with independent data sets or effect measurements. We will use a cache file system to switch between models, in order to obtain at each location in space and energy point the most reliable value. Of course, the way the model is developed is well suited to add new local developments or to include international partnership. The first beta version of this new Global radiation belt model will be presented during the conference.

Developing deterioration models for Wyoming bridges.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-05-01

Deterioration models for the Wyoming Bridge Inventory were developed using both stochastic and deterministic models. : The selection of explanatory variables is investigated and a new method using LASSO regression to eliminate human bias : in explana...

VARTM Model Development and Verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cano, Roberto J. (Technical Monitor); Dowling, Norman E.

2004-01-01

In this investigation, a comprehensive Vacuum Assisted Resin Transfer Molding (VARTM) process simulation model was developed and verified. The model incorporates resin flow through the preform, compaction and relaxation of the preform, and viscosity and cure kinetics of the resin. The computer model can be used to analyze the resin flow details, track the thickness change of the preform, predict the total infiltration time and final fiber volume fraction of the parts, and determine whether the resin could completely infiltrate and uniformly wet out the preform.

The Development Model Electronic Commerce of Regional Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Jun; Cai, Lecai; Li, Hongchan

With the developing of the agricultural information, it is inevitable trend of the development of agricultural electronic commercial affairs. On the basis of existing study on the development application model of e-commerce, combined with the character of the agricultural information, compared with the developing model from the theory and reality, a new development model electronic commerce of regional agriculture base on the government is put up, and such key issues as problems of the security applications, payment mode, sharing mechanisms, and legal protection are analyzed, etc. The among coordination mechanism of the region is discussed on, it is significance for regulating the development of agricultural e-commerce and promoting the regional economical development.

Turbulence and modeling in transonic flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubesin, Morris W.; Viegas, John R.

1989-01-01

A review is made of the performance of a variety of turbulence models in the evaluation of a particular well documented transonic flow. This is done to supplement a previous attempt to calibrate and verify transonic airfoil codes by including many more turbulence models than used in the earlier work and applying the calculations to an experiment that did not suffer from uncertainties in angle of attack and was free of wind tunnel interference. It is found from this work, as well as in the earlier study, that the Johnson-King turbulence model is superior for transonic flows over simple aerodynamic surfaces, including moderate separation. It is also shown that some field equation models with wall function boundary conditions can be competitive with it.

Signatures of Subacute Potentially Catastrophic Illness in the ICU: Model Development and Validation.

PubMed

Moss, Travis J; Lake, Douglas E; Calland, J Forrest; Enfield, Kyle B; Delos, John B; Fairchild, Karen D; Moorman, J Randall

2016-09-01

Patients in ICUs are susceptible to subacute potentially catastrophic illnesses such as respiratory failure, sepsis, and hemorrhage that present as severe derangements of vital signs. More subtle physiologic signatures may be present before clinical deterioration, when treatment might be more effective. We performed multivariate statistical analyses of bedside physiologic monitoring data to identify such early subclinical signatures of incipient life-threatening illness. We report a study of model development and validation of a retrospective observational cohort using resampling (Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis type 1b internal validation) and a study of model validation using separate data (type 2b internal/external validation). University of Virginia Health System (Charlottesville), a tertiary-care, academic medical center. Critically ill patients consecutively admitted between January 2009 and June 2015 to either the neonatal, surgical/trauma/burn, or medical ICUs with available physiologic monitoring data. None. We analyzed 146 patient-years of vital sign and electrocardiography waveform time series from the bedside monitors of 9,232 ICU admissions. Calculations from 30-minute windows of the physiologic monitoring data were made every 15 minutes. Clinicians identified 1,206 episodes of respiratory failure leading to urgent unplanned intubation, sepsis, or hemorrhage leading to multi-unit transfusions from systematic individual chart reviews. Multivariate models to predict events up to 24 hours prior had internally validated C-statistics of 0.61-0.88. In adults, physiologic signatures of respiratory failure and hemorrhage were distinct from each other but externally consistent across ICUs. Sepsis, on the other hand, demonstrated less distinct and inconsistent signatures. Physiologic signatures of all neonatal illnesses were similar. Subacute potentially catastrophic illnesses in three diverse ICU

An integrated mathematical model of the human cardiopulmonary system: model development.

PubMed

Albanese, Antonio; Cheng, Limei; Ursino, Mauro; Chbat, Nicolas W

2016-04-01

Several cardiovascular and pulmonary models have been proposed in the last few decades. However, very few have addressed the interactions between these two systems. Our group has developed an integrated cardiopulmonary model (CP Model) that mathematically describes the interactions between the cardiovascular and respiratory systems, along with their main short-term control mechanisms. The model has been compared with human and animal data taken from published literature. Due to the volume of the work, the paper is divided in two parts. The present paper is on model development and normophysiology, whereas the second is on the model's validation on hypoxic and hypercapnic conditions. The CP Model incorporates cardiovascular circulation, respiratory mechanics, tissue and alveolar gas exchange, as well as short-term neural control mechanisms acting on both the cardiovascular and the respiratory functions. The model is able to simulate physiological variables typically observed in adult humans under normal and pathological conditions and to explain the underlying mechanisms and dynamics. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Analysis of arrhythmic events is useful to detect lead failure earlier in patients followed by remote monitoring.

PubMed

Nishii, Nobuhiro; Miyoshi, Akihito; Kubo, Motoki; Miyamoto, Masakazu; Morimoto, Yoshimasa; Kawada, Satoshi; Nakagawa, Koji; Watanabe, Atsuyuki; Nakamura, Kazufumi; Morita, Hiroshi; Ito, Hiroshi

2018-03-01

Remote monitoring (RM) has been advocated as the new standard of care for patients with cardiovascular implantable electronic devices (CIEDs). RM has allowed the early detection of adverse clinical events, such as arrhythmia, lead failure, and battery depletion. However, lead failure was often identified only by arrhythmic events, but not impedance abnormalities. To compare the usefulness of arrhythmic events with conventional impedance abnormalities for identifying lead failure in CIED patients followed by RM. CIED patients in 12 hospitals have been followed by the RM center in Okayama University Hospital. All transmitted data have been analyzed and summarized. From April 2009 to March 2016, 1,873 patients have been followed by the RM center. During the mean follow-up period of 775 days, 42 lead failure events (atrial lead 22, right ventricular pacemaker lead 5, implantable cardioverter defibrillator [ICD] lead 15) were detected. The proportion of lead failures detected only by arrhythmic events, which were not detected by conventional impedance abnormalities, was significantly higher than that detected by impedance abnormalities (arrhythmic event 76.2%, 95% CI: 60.5-87.9%; impedance abnormalities 23.8%, 95% CI: 12.1-39.5%). Twenty-seven events (64.7%) were detected without any alert. Of 15 patients with ICD lead failure, none has experienced inappropriate therapy. RM can detect lead failure earlier, before clinical adverse events. However, CIEDs often diagnose lead failure as just arrhythmic events without any warning. Thus, to detect lead failure earlier, careful human analysis of arrhythmic events is useful. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Quality evaluation of health information system's architectures developed using the HIS-DF methodology.

PubMed

López, Diego M; Blobel, Bernd; Gonzalez, Carolina

2010-01-01

Requirement analysis, design, implementation, evaluation, use, and maintenance of semantically interoperable Health Information Systems (HIS) have to be based on eHealth standards. HIS-DF is a comprehensive approach for HIS architectural development based on standard information models and vocabulary. The empirical validity of HIS-DF has not been demonstrated so far. Through an empirical experiment, the paper demonstrates that using HIS-DF and HL7 information models, semantic quality of HIS architecture can be improved, compared to architectures developed using traditional RUP process. Semantic quality of the architecture has been measured in terms of model's completeness and validity metrics. The experimental results demonstrated an increased completeness of 14.38% and an increased validity of 16.63% when using the HIS-DF and HL7 information models in a sample HIS development project. Quality assurance of the system architecture in earlier stages of HIS development presumes an increased quality of final HIS systems, which supposes an indirect impact on patient care.

The Uses and Dependency Model of Mass Communication.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubin, Alan M.; Windahl, Sven

1986-01-01

Responds to criticism of the uses and gratification model by proposing a modified model integrating the dependency perspective. Suggests that this integrated model broadens the heuristic application of the earlier model. (MS)

NC truck network model development research.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-09-01

This research develops a validated prototype truck traffic network model for North Carolina. The model : includes all counties and metropolitan areas of North Carolina and major economic areas throughout the : U.S. Geographic boundaries, population a...

Coping and emotional distress during acute hospitalization in older persons with earlier trauma: the case of Holocaust survivors.

PubMed

Kimron, Lee; Cohen, Miri

2012-06-01

Older persons with earlier trauma are often more vulnerable to stresses of old age. To examine the levels of emotional distress in relation to cognitive appraisal of acute hospitalization and coping strategies in Holocaust survivors compared with an age- and education-matched group of elderly persons without Holocaust experience. This is a cross-sectional study of 63 Holocaust survivors, 65 years and older, hospitalized for an acute illness, and 57 age-, education- and hospital unit-matched people without Holocaust experience. Participants completed appraisal and coping strategies (COPE) questionnaires, and the brief symptoms inventory (BSI-18). Holocaust survivors reported higher levels of emotional distress, appraised the hospitalization higher as a threat and lower as a challenge, and used more emotion-focused and less problem-focused or support-seeking coping strategies than the comparison group. Study variables explained 65% of the variance of emotional distress; significant predictors of emotional distress in the final regression model were not having a partner and more use of emotion-focused coping. The latter mediated the relation of group variable and challenge appraisal to emotional distress. Health professionals must be aware of the potential impact of the hospital environment on the survivors of Holocaust as well as survivors of other trauma. Being sensitive to their specific needs may reduce the negative impact of hospitalization.

Development of Virtual Blade Model for Modelling Helicopter Rotor Downwash in OpenFOAM

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

UNCLASSIFIED Development of Virtual Blade Model for Modelling Helicopter Rotor Downwash in OpenFOAM Stefano Wahono Aerospace...Georgia Institute of Technology. The OpenFOAM predicted result was also shown to compare favourably with ANSYS Fluent predictions. RELEASE...UNCLASSIFIED Development of Virtual Blade Model for Modelling Helicopter Rotor Downwash in OpenFOAM Executive Summary The Infrared

Statistical downscaling of general-circulation-model- simulated average monthly air temperature to the beginning of flowering of the dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) in Slovenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergant, Klemen; Kajfež-Bogataj, Lučka; Črepinšek, Zalika

2002-02-01

Phenological observations are a valuable source of information for investigating the relationship between climate variation and plant development. Potential climate change in the future will shift the occurrence of phenological phases. Information about future climate conditions is needed in order to estimate this shift. General circulation models (GCM) provide the best information about future climate change. They are able to simulate reliably the most important mean features on a large scale, but they fail on a regional scale because of their low spatial resolution. A common approach to bridging the scale gap is statistical downscaling, which was used to relate the beginning of flowering of Taraxacum officinale in Slovenia with the monthly mean near-surface air temperature for January, February and March in Central Europe. Statistical models were developed and tested with NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis predictor data and EARS predictand data for the period 1960-1999. Prior to developing statistical models, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was employed on the predictor data. Multiple linear regression was used to relate the beginning of flowering with expansion coefficients of the first three EOF for the Janauary, Febrauary and March air temperatures, and a strong correlation was found between them. Developed statistical models were employed on the results of two GCM (HadCM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3) to estimate the potential shifts in the beginning of flowering for the periods 1990-2019 and 2020-2049 in comparison with the period 1960-1989. The HadCM3 model predicts, on average, 4 days earlier occurrence and ECHAM4/OPYC3 5 days earlier occurrence of flowering in the period 1990-2019. The analogous results for the period 2020-2049 are a 10- and 11-day earlier occurrence.

Developing rural palliative care: validating a conceptual model.

PubMed

Kelley, Mary Lou; Williams, Allison; DeMiglio, Lily; Mettam, Hilary

2011-01-01

The purpose of this research was to validate a conceptual model for developing palliative care in rural communities. This model articulates how local rural healthcare providers develop palliative care services according to four sequential phases. The model has roots in concepts of community capacity development, evolves from collaborative, generalist rural practice, and utilizes existing health services infrastructure. It addresses how rural providers manage challenges, specifically those related to: lack of resources, minimal community understanding of palliative care, health professionals' resistance, the bureaucracy of the health system, and the obstacles of providing services in rural environments. Seven semi-structured focus groups were conducted with interdisciplinary health providers in 7 rural communities in two Canadian provinces. Using a constant comparative analysis approach, focus group data were analyzed by examining participants' statements in relation to the model and comparing emerging themes in the development of rural palliative care to the elements of the model. The data validated the conceptual model as the model was able to theoretically predict and explain the experiences of the 7 rural communities that participated in the study. New emerging themes from the data elaborated existing elements in the model and informed the requirement for minor revisions. The model was validated and slightly revised, as suggested by the data. The model was confirmed as being a useful theoretical tool for conceptualizing the development of rural palliative care that is applicable in diverse rural communities.

From alcohol initiation to tolerance to problems: Discordant twin modeling of a developmental process

PubMed Central

Deutsch, Arielle R.; Slutske, Wendy S.; Lynskey, Michael T.; Bucholz, Kathleen K.; Madden, Pamela A. F.; Heath, Andrew C.; Martin, Nicholas G.

2017-01-01

The current study examined a stage-based alcohol use trajectory model to test for potential causal effects of earlier drinking milestones on later drinking milestones in a combined sample of two cohorts of Australian monozygotic and same-sex dizygotic twins (N = 7,398, age M = 30.46, SD = 2.61, 61% mal 56% monozygotic twins). Ages of drinking, drunkenness, regular drinking, tolerance, first nontolerance alcohol use disorder symptom, and alcohol use disorder symptom onsets were assessed retrospectively. Ages of milestone attainment (i.e., age-of-onset) and time between milestones (i.e., time-to-even were examined via frailty models within a multilevel discordant twin design. For age-of-onset models, earlier ages of onset of antecedent drinking milestones increased hazards for earlier ages of onset for more proximal subsequent drinking milestones. For the time-to-event models, however, earlier ag of onset for the “starting” milestone decreased risk for a shorter time period between the starting and the “ending” milestone. Earlier age of onset of intermediate milestones between starting and ending drinking milestones had the opposite effect, increasing risk for a shorter time period between the starti and ending milestones. These results are consistent with a causal effect of an earlier age of drinking milestone onset on temporally proximal subsequent drinking milestones. PMID:27417028

Missed opportunities for earlier diagnosis of HIV in patients who presented with advanced HIV disease: a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Levy, Itzchak; Maor, Yasmin; Mahroum, Naim; Olmer, Liraz; Wieder, Anat; Litchevski, Vladislav; Mor, Orna; Rahav, Galia

2016-01-01

Objective To quantify and characterise missed opportunities for earlier HIV diagnosis in patients diagnosed with advanced HIV. Design A retrospective observational cohort study. Setting A central tertiary medical centre in Israel. Measures The proportion of patients with advanced HIV, the proportion of missed opportunities to diagnose them earlier, and the rate of clinical indicator diseases (CIDs) in those patients. Results Between 2010 and 2015, 356 patients were diagnosed with HIV, 118 (33.4%) were diagnosed late, 57 (16%) with advanced HIV disease. Old age (OR=1.45 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.74)) and being heterosexual (OR=2.65 (95% CI 1.21 to 5.78)) were significant risk factors for being diagnosed late. All patients with advanced disease had at least one CID that did not lead to an HIV test in the 5 years prior to AIDS diagnosis. The median time between CID and AIDS diagnosis was 24 months (IQR 10–30). 60% of CIDs were missed by a general practitioner and 40% by a specialist. Conclusions Missed opportunities to early diagnosis of HIV occur in primary and secondary care. Lack of national guidelines, lack of knowledge regarding CIDs and communication barriers with patients may contribute to a late diagnosis of HIV. PMID:28186940

Retiform hemangioendothelioma developed on the site of an earlier cystic lymphangioma in a six-year-old girl.

PubMed

Albertini, Anne-Fore; Brousse, Nicole; Bodemer, Christine; Calonje, Eduardo; Fraitag, Sylvie

2011-10-01

Retiform hemangioendothelioma (RH) is a rare low-grade malignancy angiosarcoma, with a high rate of local recurrence and a low metastatic risk. A 6 year-old girl with a large cervical cystic lymphangioma diagnosed by ultrasound and Doppler ultrasound, which showed a large multiloculated anechoic cyst with no flow. The lymphangioma was treated with injections of Picibanil (OK-432). The tumor regressed, but after a year, she developed a poorly limited infiltrated plaque spreading out regularly over her chest, back, and shoulder. The biopsy showed a poorly limited dermal and subcutaneous vascular proliferation composed of elongated arborising vessels lined with ovoid endothelial cells in a hobnail pattern. In addition, the deep part of the lesion showed typical features of a papillary intralymphatic angioendothelioma pattern (PILA) or Dabska tumor. The endothelial cells strongly expressed podoplanin (D2-40). A diagnosis of RH with focal areas of PILA was reached. The girl died 8 months after surgery of hypovolemic shock in a context of diffuse lymphangiomatosis with pulmonary localization. To our knowledge, RH has hardly ever been described in children. This entity exhibits a continuum with the PILA, sharing not only morphological and immunohistochemical similarities but also its ability to develop in a context of a vascular anomaly, particularly a lymphangioma. The role of Picibanil in the development of this tumor can be discussed.

Earlier predictors of eating disorder symptoms in 9-year-old children. A longitudinal study.

PubMed

Parkinson, Kathryn N; Drewett, Robert F; Le Couteur, Ann S; Adamson, Ashley J

2012-08-01

The aim of the study was to examine predictors of eating disorder symptoms in a population based sample at the earliest age at which they can be measured using the Children's Eating Attitudes Test. Data were collected from the longitudinal Gateshead Millennium Study cohort; 609 children participated in the 7 year data sweep (and their mothers and teachers), and 589 children participated in the 9 year data sweep. Eating disorder symptoms at 9 years were higher in boys, and in children from more deprived families. Higher eating disorder symptoms were associated with more body dissatisfaction at 9 years. Higher symptoms were predicted by higher levels of dietary restraint and of emotional symptoms, but not greater body dissatisfaction, 2 years earlier. The study showed that some correlates of high eating disorder symptoms found in adolescents and adults are also found in children, before the rise in diagnosable eating disorders over the pubertal period. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Judi, David R.; Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Waichler, Scott R.

Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain on snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgement that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information is available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient design considering an uncertain climate future. This research used climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience formore » the Snohomish Watershed, WA, U.S.A. The proposed model chain has been calibrated and validated. Based on the established model chain, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to earlier winter season. The nonstationarity of peak discharges was discovered with more frequent and severe flood risks projected. The peak discharges were also projected to decrease for a certain period in the near future, which might be due to the reduced rain-on-snow events. This research was expected to provide a clear method for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provide actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events.« less

ROBOSIM Modeling of NASA and DoD Robotic Concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fernandez, Kenneth R.

2005-01-01

Dr. Fernandez will discuss using ROBOSIM to model a robotic minesweeper for DoD and to model NASA's use of the Shuttle robot arm to examine shuttle tiles. He will show some of the actual robotic simulations that were developed, and provide some insight on solving the challenging issues involved with developing robotic simulations. Dr. Fernandez developed an earlier version of ROBOSIM with his Ph.D. advisor, Dr. George E. Cook, professor of Electrical Engineering at Vanderbilt University. After being honored as a NASA Administrator s Fellow, he chose Alabama A&M University as the location where he would do a year of teaching and a year of research, provided by the NASA Fellowship Grant. Dr. Trent Montgomery, Associate Dean of Engineering/Chairman Electrical Engineering Department, was his host for the NASA fellowship position at Alabama A&M. Mr. Lionel Macklin is a student at Alabama A&M University who developed the model of the minesweeper concept as his senior project.

Queueing Network Models for Parallel Processing of Task Systems: an Operational Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mak, Victor W. K.

1986-01-01

Computer performance modeling of possibly complex computations running on highly concurrent systems is considered. Earlier works in this area either dealt with a very simple program structure or resulted in methods with exponential complexity. An efficient procedure is developed to compute the performance measures for series-parallel-reducible task systems using queueing network models. The procedure is based on the concept of hierarchical decomposition and a new operational approach. Numerical results for three test cases are presented and compared to those of simulations.

An Aristotelian Model of Moral Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sanderse, Wouter

2015-01-01

Despite the Aristotelian renaissance in the philosophy of education, the development of virtue has not received much attention. This is unfortunate, because an attempt to draft an Aristotelian model of moral development can help philosophers to evaluate the contribution Aristotelian virtue ethics can make to our understanding of moral development,…

EFFECTS OF LASER RADIATION ON MATTER. LASER PLASMA: Spatial-temporal distribution of a mechanical load resulting from interaction of laser radiation with a barrier (analytic model)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedyushin, B. T.

1992-01-01

The concepts developed earlier are used to propose a simple analytic model describing the spatial-temporal distribution of a mechanical load (pressure, impulse) resulting from interaction of laser radiation with a planar barrier surrounded by air. The correctness of the model is supported by a comparison with experimental results.

A new approach for developing adjoint models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, P. E.; Funke, S. W.

2011-12-01

Many data assimilation algorithms rely on the availability of gradients of misfit functionals, which can be efficiently computed with adjoint models. However, the development of an adjoint model for a complex geophysical code is generally very difficult. Algorithmic differentiation (AD, also called automatic differentiation) offers one strategy for simplifying this task: it takes the abstraction that a model is a sequence of primitive instructions, each of which may be differentiated in turn. While extremely successful, this low-level abstraction runs into time-consuming difficulties when applied to the whole codebase of a model, such as differentiating through linear solves, model I/O, calls to external libraries, language features that are unsupported by the AD tool, and the use of multiple programming languages. While these difficulties can be overcome, it requires a large amount of technical expertise and an intimate familiarity with both the AD tool and the model. An alternative to applying the AD tool to the whole codebase is to assemble the discrete adjoint equations and use these to compute the necessary gradients. With this approach, the AD tool must be applied to the nonlinear assembly operators, which are typically small, self-contained units of the codebase. The disadvantage of this approach is that the assembly of the discrete adjoint equations is still very difficult to perform correctly, especially for complex multiphysics models that perform temporal integration; as it stands, this approach is as difficult and time-consuming as applying AD to the whole model. In this work, we have developed a library which greatly simplifies and automates the alternate approach of assembling the discrete adjoint equations. We propose a complementary, higher-level abstraction to that of AD: that a model is a sequence of linear solves. The developer annotates model source code with library calls that build a 'tape' of the operators involved and their dependencies, and

Developments toward more accurate molecular modeling of liquids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Tom J.

2000-12-01

The general goal of this research has been to improve upon existing combined quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics (QM/MM) methodologies. Error weighting functions have been introduced into the perturbative Monte Carlo (PMC) method for use with QM/MM. The PMC approach, introduced earlier, provides a means to reduce the number of full self-consistent field (SCF) calculations in simulations using the QM/MM potential by evoking perturbation theory to calculate energy changes due to displacements of a MM molecule. This will allow the ab initio QM/MM approach to be applied to systems that require more advanced, computationally demanding treatments of the QM and/or MM regions. Efforts have also been made to improve the accuracy of the representation of the solvent molecules usually represented by MM force fields. Results from an investigation of the applicability of the embedded density functional theory (EDFT) for studying physical properties of solutions will be presented. In this approach, the solute wavefunction is solved self- consistently in the field of individually frozen electron-density solvent molecules. To test its accuracy, the potential curves for interactions between Li+, Cl- and H2O with a single frozen-density H 2O molecule in different orientations have been calculated. With the development of the more sophisticated effective fragment potential (EFP) representation of solvent molecules, a QM/EFP technique was created. This hybrid QM/EFP approach was used to investigate the solvation of Li + by small clusters of water, as a test case for larger ionic dusters. The EFP appears to provide an accurate representation of the strong interactions that exist between Li+ and H2O. With the QM/EFP methodology comes an increased computational expense, resulting in an even greater need to rely on the PMC approach. However, while including the PMC into the hybrid QM/EFP technique, it was discovered that the previous implementation of the PMC was done incorrectly

Development and Integration of Control System Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Young K.

1998-01-01

The computer simulation tool, TREETOPS, has been upgraded and used at NASA/MSFC to model various complicated mechanical systems and to perform their dynamics and control analysis with pointing control systems. A TREETOPS model of Advanced X-ray Astrophysics Facility - Imaging (AXAF-1) dynamics and control system was developed to evaluate the AXAF-I pointing performance for Normal Pointing Mode. An optical model of Shooting Star Experiment (SSE) was also developed and its optical performance analysis was done using the MACOS software.

Mechanical Model Development for Composite Structural Supercapacitors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricks, Trenton M.; Lacy, Thomas E., Jr.; Santiago, Diana; Bednarcyk, Brett A.

2016-01-01

Novel composite structural supercapacitor concepts have recently been developed as a means both to store electrical charge and to provide modest mechanical load carrying capability. Double-layer composite supercapacitors are often fabricated by impregnating a woven carbon fiber fabric, which serves as the electrodes, with a structural polymer electrolyte. Polypropylene or a glass fabric is often used as the separator material. Recent research has been primarily limited to evaluating these composites experimentally. In this study, mechanical models based on the Multiscale Generalized Method of Cells (MSGMC) were developed and used to calculate the shear and tensile properties and response of two composite structural supercapacitors from the literature. The modeling approach was first validated against traditional composite laminate data. MSGMC models for composite supercapacitors were developed, and accurate elastic shear/tensile properties were obtained. It is envisioned that further development of the models presented in this work will facilitate the design of composite components for aerospace and automotive applications and can be used to screen candidate constituent materials for inclusion in future composite structural supercapacitor concepts.

Model for Simulating a Spiral Software-Development Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mizell, Carolyn; Curley, Charles; Nayak, Umanath

2010-01-01

A discrete-event simulation model, and a computer program that implements the model, have been developed as means of analyzing a spiral software-development process. This model can be tailored to specific development environments for use by software project managers in making quantitative cases for deciding among different software-development processes, courses of action, and cost estimates. A spiral process can be contrasted with a waterfall process, which is a traditional process that consists of a sequence of activities that include analysis of requirements, design, coding, testing, and support. A spiral process is an iterative process that can be regarded as a repeating modified waterfall process. Each iteration includes assessment of risk, analysis of requirements, design, coding, testing, delivery, and evaluation. A key difference between a spiral and a waterfall process is that a spiral process can accommodate changes in requirements at each iteration, whereas in a waterfall process, requirements are considered to be fixed from the beginning and, therefore, a waterfall process is not flexible enough for some projects, especially those in which requirements are not known at the beginning or may change during development. For a given project, a spiral process may cost more and take more time than does a waterfall process, but may better satisfy a customer's expectations and needs. Models for simulating various waterfall processes have been developed previously, but until now, there have been no models for simulating spiral processes. The present spiral-process-simulating model and the software that implements it were developed by extending a discrete-event simulation process model of the IEEE 12207 Software Development Process, which was built using commercially available software known as the Process Analysis Tradeoff Tool (PATT). Typical inputs to PATT models include industry-average values of product size (expressed as number of lines of code

Kinetics model development of cocoa bean fermentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kresnowati, M. T. A. P.; Gunawan, Agus Yodi; Muliyadini, Winny

2015-12-01

Although Indonesia is one of the biggest cocoa beans producers in the world, Indonesian cocoa beans are oftenly of low quality and thereby frequently priced low in the world market. In order to improve the quality, adequate post-harvest cocoa processing techniques are required. Fermentation is the vital stage in series of cocoa beans post harvest processing which could improve the quality of cocoa beans, in particular taste, aroma, and colours. During the fermentation process, combination of microbes grow producing metabolites that serve as the precursors for cocoa beans flavour. Microbial composition and thereby their activities will affect the fermentation performance and influence the properties of cocoa beans. The correlation could be reviewed using a kinetic model that includes unstructured microbial growth, substrate utilization and metabolic product formation. The developed kinetic model could be further used to design cocoa bean fermentation process to meet the expected quality. Further the development of kinetic model of cocoa bean fermentation also serve as a good case study of mixed culture solid state fermentation, that has rarely been studied. This paper presents the development of a kinetic model for solid-state cocoa beans fermentation using an empirical approach. Series of lab scale cocoa bean fermentations, either natural fermentations without starter addition or fermentations with mixed yeast and lactic acid bacteria starter addition, were used for model parameters estimation. The results showed that cocoa beans fermentation can be modelled mathematically and the best model included substrate utilization, microbial growth, metabolites production and its transport. Although the developed model still can not explain the dynamics in microbial population, this model can sufficiently explained the observed changes in sugar concentration as well as metabolic products in the cocoa bean pulp.

How Qualitative Methods Can be Used to Inform Model Development.

PubMed

Husbands, Samantha; Jowett, Susan; Barton, Pelham; Coast, Joanna

2017-06-01

Decision-analytic models play a key role in informing healthcare resource allocation decisions. However, there are ongoing concerns with the credibility of models. Modelling methods guidance can encourage good practice within model development, but its value is dependent on its ability to address the areas that modellers find most challenging. Further, it is important that modelling methods and related guidance are continually updated in light of any new approaches that could potentially enhance model credibility. The objective of this article was to highlight the ways in which qualitative methods have been used and recommended to inform decision-analytic model development and enhance modelling practices. With reference to the literature, the article discusses two key ways in which qualitative methods can be, and have been, applied. The first approach involves using qualitative methods to understand and inform general and future processes of model development, and the second, using qualitative techniques to directly inform the development of individual models. The literature suggests that qualitative methods can improve the validity and credibility of modelling processes by providing a means to understand existing modelling approaches that identifies where problems are occurring and further guidance is needed. It can also be applied within model development to facilitate the input of experts to structural development. We recommend that current and future model development would benefit from the greater integration of qualitative methods, specifically by studying 'real' modelling processes, and by developing recommendations around how qualitative methods can be adopted within everyday modelling practice.

Enabling Accessibility Through Model-Based User Interface Development.

PubMed

Ziegler, Daniel; Peissner, Matthias

2017-01-01

Adaptive user interfaces (AUIs) can increase the accessibility of interactive systems. They provide personalized display and interaction modes to fit individual user needs. Most AUI approaches rely on model-based development, which is considered relatively demanding. This paper explores strategies to make model-based development more attractive for mainstream developers.

Kohlberg's Moral Development Model: Cohort Influences on Validity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bechtel, Ashleah

An overview of Kohlberg's theory of moral development is presented; three interviews regarding the theory are reported, and the author's own moral development is compared to the model; finally, a critique of the theory is addressed along with recommendations for future enhancement. Lawrence Kohlberg's model of moral development, also referred to…

A bio-optical model for integration into ecosystem models for the Ligurian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bengil, Fethi; McKee, David; Beşiktepe, Sükrü T.; Sanjuan Calzado, Violeta; Trees, Charles

2016-12-01

A bio-optical model has been developed for the Ligurian Sea which encompasses both deep, oceanic Case 1 waters and shallow, coastal Case 2 waters. The model builds on earlier Case 1 models for the region and uses field data collected on the BP09 research cruise to establish new relationships for non-biogenic particles and CDOM. The bio-optical model reproduces in situ IOPs accurately and is used to parameterize radiative transfer simulations which demonstrate its utility for modeling underwater light levels and above surface remote sensing reflectance. Prediction of euphotic depth is found to be accurate to within ∼3.2 m (RMSE). Previously published light field models work well for deep oceanic parts of the Ligurian Sea that fit the Case 1 classification. However, they are found to significantly over-estimate euphotic depth in optically complex coastal waters where the influence of non-biogenic materials is strongest. For these coastal waters, the combination of the bio-optical model proposed here and full radiative transfer simulations provides significantly more accurate predictions of euphotic depth.

Mediterranean maquis fuel model development and mapping to support fire modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, V.; Arca, B.; Pellizzaro, G.; Salis, M.; Ventura, A.; Spano, D.; Duce, P.

2009-04-01

Fuel load data and fuel model maps represent a critical issue for fire spread and behaviour modeling. The availability of accurate input data at different spatial and temporal scales can allow detailed analysis and predictions of fire hazard and fire effects across a landscape. Fuel model data are used in spatially explicit fire growth models to attain fire behaviour information for fuel management in prescribed fires, fire management applications, firefighters training, smoke emissions, etc. However, fuel type characteristics are difficult to be parameterized due to their complexity and variability: live and dead materials with different size contribute in different ways to the fire spread and behaviour. In the last decades, a strong help was provided by the use of remote sensing imagery at high spatial and spectral resolution. Such techniques are able to capture fine scale fuel distributions for accurate fire growth projections. Several attempts carried out in Europe were devoted to fuel classification and map characterization. In Italy, fuel load estimation and fuel model definition are still critical issues to be addressed due to the lack of detailed information. In this perspective, the aim of the present work was to propose an integrated approach based on field data collection, fuel model development and fuel model mapping to provide fuel models for the Mediterranean maquis associations. Field data needed for the development of fuel models were collected using destructive and non destructive measurements in experimental plots located in Northern Sardinia (Italy). Statistical tests were used to identify the main fuel types that were classified into four custom fuel models. Subsequently, a supervised classification by the Maximum Likelihood algorithm was applied on IKONOS images to identify and map the different types of maquis vegetation. The correspondent fuel model was then associated to each vegetation type to obtain the fuel model map. The results show the

Developing a Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Model Knowledgebase in Support of Provisional Model Construction

PubMed Central

Grulke, Christopher M.; Chang, Daniel T.; Brooks, Raina D.; Leonard, Jeremy A.; Phillips, Martin B.; Hypes, Ethan D.; Fair, Matthew J.; Tornero-Velez, Rogelio; Johnson, Jeffre; Dary, Curtis C.; Tan, Yu-Mei

2016-01-01

Developing physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for chemicals can be resource-intensive, as neither chemical-specific parameters nor in vivo pharmacokinetic data are easily available for model construction. Previously developed, well-parameterized, and thoroughly-vetted models can be a great resource for the construction of models pertaining to new chemicals. A PBPK knowledgebase was compiled and developed from existing PBPK-related articles and used to develop new models. From 2,039 PBPK-related articles published between 1977 and 2013, 307 unique chemicals were identified for use as the basis of our knowledgebase. Keywords related to species, gender, developmental stages, and organs were analyzed from the articles within the PBPK knowledgebase. A correlation matrix of the 307 chemicals in the PBPK knowledgebase was calculated based on pharmacokinetic-relevant molecular descriptors. Chemicals in the PBPK knowledgebase were ranked based on their correlation toward ethylbenzene and gefitinib. Next, multiple chemicals were selected to represent exact matches, close analogues, or non-analogues of the target case study chemicals. Parameters, equations, or experimental data relevant to existing models for these chemicals and their analogues were used to construct new models, and model predictions were compared to observed values. This compiled knowledgebase provides a chemical structure-based approach for identifying PBPK models relevant to other chemical entities. Using suitable correlation metrics, we demonstrated that models of chemical analogues in the PBPK knowledgebase can guide the construction of PBPK models for other chemicals. PMID:26871706

Developing a Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Model Knowledgebase in Support of Provisional Model Construction.

PubMed

Lu, Jingtao; Goldsmith, Michael-Rock; Grulke, Christopher M; Chang, Daniel T; Brooks, Raina D; Leonard, Jeremy A; Phillips, Martin B; Hypes, Ethan D; Fair, Matthew J; Tornero-Velez, Rogelio; Johnson, Jeffre; Dary, Curtis C; Tan, Yu-Mei

2016-02-01

Developing physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for chemicals can be resource-intensive, as neither chemical-specific parameters nor in vivo pharmacokinetic data are easily available for model construction. Previously developed, well-parameterized, and thoroughly-vetted models can be a great resource for the construction of models pertaining to new chemicals. A PBPK knowledgebase was compiled and developed from existing PBPK-related articles and used to develop new models. From 2,039 PBPK-related articles published between 1977 and 2013, 307 unique chemicals were identified for use as the basis of our knowledgebase. Keywords related to species, gender, developmental stages, and organs were analyzed from the articles within the PBPK knowledgebase. A correlation matrix of the 307 chemicals in the PBPK knowledgebase was calculated based on pharmacokinetic-relevant molecular descriptors. Chemicals in the PBPK knowledgebase were ranked based on their correlation toward ethylbenzene and gefitinib. Next, multiple chemicals were selected to represent exact matches, close analogues, or non-analogues of the target case study chemicals. Parameters, equations, or experimental data relevant to existing models for these chemicals and their analogues were used to construct new models, and model predictions were compared to observed values. This compiled knowledgebase provides a chemical structure-based approach for identifying PBPK models relevant to other chemical entities. Using suitable correlation metrics, we demonstrated that models of chemical analogues in the PBPK knowledgebase can guide the construction of PBPK models for other chemicals.

Remarks on Height-Diameter Modeling

Treesearch

Lei Yuancai; Bernard R. Parresol

2001-01-01

Height-diameter model forms in earlier published papers are examined. The selection criteria used in height-diameter model forms are not reasonable when considering tree biological growth pattern. During model selection, forms for height-diameter relationships should include consideration of both data-related and reasonable biological criteria, not just data-related...

Health Disparities in Mid-to-Late Life: The Role of Earlier Life Family and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Conditions

PubMed Central

Johnson, Rucker C.; Schoeni, Robert F.; Rogowski, Jeannette A.

2012-01-01

The relationship between neighborhoods of residence in young adulthood and health in mid to late life in the United States are examined using the 1968-2005 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). The sample consists of persons who were aged 20-30 in 1968 and are followed for a period of 38 years (N=2,730). Four-level hierarchical random effects models of self-assessed general health status as a function of individual, family, and neighborhood factors are estimated. Using the original sampling design of the PSID, we analyze adult health trajectories of married couples and neighbors followed from young adulthood through elderly ages to assess the magnitudes of the possible causal effects of family and neighborhood characteristics in young adulthood on health in mid to late life. Estimates suggest disparities in neighborhood conditions in young adulthood account for one-quarter of the variation in mid-to-late-life health. Living in poor neighborhoods during young adulthood is strongly associated with negative health outcomes in later life. This result is robust even in the presence of a reasonably large amount of potential unobservable individual and family factors that may significantly affect both neighborhood of residence and subsequent health status. Racial differences in health status in mid to late life are also associated with family and neighborhood socioeconomic conditions earlier in life. Three quarters of the black-white gap in health status at ages over 55 can be accounted for by differences in childhood socioeconomic status and neighborhood and family factors in young adulthood. PMID:22212443

Formulation of consumables management models. Development approach for the mission planning processor working model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connelly, L. C.

1977-01-01

The mission planning processor is a user oriented tool for consumables management and is part of the total consumables subsystem management concept. The approach to be used in developing a working model of the mission planning processor is documented. The approach includes top-down design, structured programming techniques, and application of NASA approved software development standards. This development approach: (1) promotes cost effective software development, (2) enhances the quality and reliability of the working model, (3) encourages the sharing of the working model through a standard approach, and (4) promotes portability of the working model to other computer systems.

Moderately premature infants at Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program in California are discharged home earlier than their peers in Massachusetts and the United Kingdom

PubMed Central

Profit, J; Zupancic, J A F; McCormick, M C; Richardson, D K; Escobar, G J; Tucker, J; Tarnow‐Mordi, W; Parry, G

2006-01-01

Objective To compare gestational age at discharge between infants born at 30–34+6 weeks gestational age who were admitted to neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) in California, Massachusetts, and the United Kingdom. Design Prospective observational cohort study. Setting Fifty four United Kingdom, five California, and five Massachusetts NICUs. Subjects A total of 4359 infants who survived to discharge home after admission to an NICU. Main outcome measures Gestational age at discharge home. Results The mean (SD) postmenstrual age at discharge of the infants in California, Massachusetts, and the United Kingdom were 35.9 (1.3), 36.3 (1.3), and 36.3 (1.9) weeks respectively (p  =  0.001). Compared with the United Kingdom, adjusted discharge of infants occurred 3.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4 to 6.5) days earlier in California, and 0.9 (95% CI −1.2 to 3.0) days earlier in Massachusetts. Conclusions Infants of 30–34+6 weeks gestation at birth admitted and cared for in hospitals in California have a shorter length of stay than those in the United Kingdom. Certain characteristics of the integrated healthcare approach pursued by the health maintenance organisation of the NICUs in California may foster earlier discharge. The California system may provide opportunities for identifying practices for reducing the length of stay of moderately premature infants. PMID:16449257

Computational fluid dynamic modelling of cavitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deshpande, Manish; Feng, Jinzhang; Merkle, Charles L.

1993-01-01

Models in sheet cavitation in cryogenic fluids are developed for use in Euler and Navier-Stokes codes. The models are based upon earlier potential-flow models but enable the cavity inception point, length, and shape to be determined as part of the computation. In the present paper, numerical solutions are compared with experimental measurements for both pressure distribution and cavity length. Comparisons between models are also presented. The CFD model provides a relatively simple modification to an existing code to enable cavitation performance predictions to be included. The analysis also has the added ability of incorporating thermodynamic effects of cryogenic fluids into the analysis. Extensions of the current two-dimensional steady state analysis to three-dimensions and/or time-dependent flows are, in principle, straightforward although geometrical issues become more complicated. Linearized models, however offer promise of providing effective cavitation modeling in three-dimensions. This analysis presents good potential for improved understanding of many phenomena associated with cavity flows.

Developing Modelling Lenses among Practicing Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shahbari, Juhaina Awawdeh; Tabach, Michal

2016-01-01

Growing awareness of the importance of modelling activities in mathematics education has raised the question of whether teachers are prepared to facilitate the engagement of students in such activities. The current study investigates the effects of how teachers cope with modelling activities in developing their abilities to identify modelling…

Developing a Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Model Knowledgebase in Support of Provisional Model Construction

EPA Science Inventory

Developing physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for chemicals can be resource-intensive, as neither chemical-specific parameters nor in vivo pharmacokinetic data are easily available for model construction. Previously developed, well-parameterized, and thoroughly-v...

Development of Models for Regional Cardiac Surgery Centers

PubMed Central

Park, Choon Seon; Park, Nam Hee; Sim, Sung Bo; Yun, Sang Cheol; Ahn, Hye Mi; Kim, Myunghwa; Choi, Ji Suk; Kim, Myo Jeong; Kim, Hyunsu; Chee, Hyun Keun; Oh, Sanggi; Kang, Shinkwang; Lee, Sok-Goo; Shin, Jun Ho; Kim, Keonyeop; Lee, Kun Sei

2016-01-01

Background This study aimed to develop the models for regional cardiac surgery centers, which take regional characteristics into consideration, as a policy measure that could alleviate the concentration of cardiac surgery in the metropolitan area and enhance the accessibility for patients who reside in the regions. Methods To develop the models and set standards for the necessary personnel and facilities for the initial management plan, we held workshops, debates, and conference meetings with various experts. Results After partitioning the plan into two parts (the operational autonomy and the functional comprehensiveness), three models were developed: the ‘independent regional cardiac surgery center’ model, the ‘satellite cardiac surgery center within hospitals’ model, and the ‘extended cardiac surgery department within hospitals’ model. Proposals on personnel and facility management for each of the models were also presented. A regional cardiac surgery center model that could be applied to each treatment area was proposed, which was developed based on the anticipated demand for cardiac surgery. The independent model or the satellite model was proposed for Chungcheong, Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, and South Gyeongsang area, where more than 500 cardiac surgeries are performed annually. The extended model was proposed as most effective for the Gangwon and Jeju area, where more than 200 cardiac surgeries are performed annually. Conclusion The operation of regional cardiac surgery centers with high caliber professionals and quality resources such as optimal equipment and facility size, should enhance regional healthcare accessibility and the quality of cardiac surgery in South Korea. PMID:28035295

Developing teachers' models for assessing students' competence in mathematical modelling through lesson study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydogan Yenmez, Arzu; Erbas, Ayhan Kursat; Cakiroglu, Erdinc; Alacaci, Cengiz; Cetinkaya, Bulent

2017-08-01

Applications and modelling have gained a prominent role in mathematics education reform documents and curricula. Thus, there is a growing need for studies focusing on the effective use of mathematical modelling in classrooms. Assessment is an integral part of using modelling activities in classrooms, since it allows teachers to identify and manage problems that arise in various stages of the modelling process. However, teachers' difficulties in assessing student modelling work are a challenge to be considered when implementing modelling in the classroom. Thus, the purpose of this study was to investigate how teachers' knowledge on generating assessment criteria for assessing student competence in mathematical modelling evolved through a professional development programme, which is based on a lesson study approach and modelling perspective. The data was collected with four teachers from two public high schools over a five-month period. The professional development programme included a cyclical process, with each cycle consisting of an introductory meeting, the implementation of a model-eliciting activity with students, and a follow-up meeting. The results showed that the professional development programme contributed to teachers' knowledge for generating assessment criteria on the products, and the observable actions that affect the modelling cycle.

An Innovative Model for Professional Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMurray, Sharon; O'Neill, Susan; Thompson, Ross

2016-01-01

This paper considers an innovative model of continuing professional development in addressing the needs of children with literacy difficulties, namely the Special Educational Needs Continuing Professional Development Literacy Project. Stranmillis University College, in partnership with St Mary's University College, Belfast secured £4.06 million…

A Neuroconstructivist Model of Past Tense Development and Processing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Westermann, Gert; Ruh, Nicolas

2012-01-01

We present a neural network model of learning and processing the English past tense that is based on the notion that experience-dependent cortical development is a core aspect of cognitive development. During learning the model adds and removes units and connections to develop a task-specific final architecture. The model provides an integrated…

Further Development of the PCRTM Model and RT Model Inter Comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Qiguang; Liu, Xu; Wu, Wan; Kizer, Susan

2015-01-01

New results for the development of the PCRTM model will be presented. The new results were used for IASI retrieval validation inter comparison and better results were obtained compare to other fast radiative transfer models.

An Optical Model for Estimating the Underwater Light Field from Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Cheng-Chien; Miller, Richard L.

2002-01-01

A model of the wavelength-integrated scalar irradiance for a vertically homogeneous water column is developed. It runs twenty thousand times faster than simulations obtained using full Hydrolight code and limits the percentage error to less than 3.7%. Both the distribution of incident sky radiance and a wind-roughened surface are integrated in the model. Our model removes common limitations of earlier models and can be applied to waters with any composition of the inherent optical properties. Implementation of this new model, as well as the ancillary information required for processing global-scale satellite data, is discussed. This new model is fast, accurate, and flexible and therefore provides important information of the underwater light field from remote sensing.

Modeling of estuarne chlorophyll a from an airborne scanner

USGS Publications Warehouse

Khorram, Siamak; Catts, Glenn P.; Cloern, James E.; Knight, Allen W.

1987-01-01

Near simultaneous collection of 34 surface water samples and airborne multispectral scanner data provided input for regression models developed to predict surface concentrations of estuarine chlorophyll a. Two wavelength ratios were employed in model development. The ratios werechosen to capitalize on the spectral characteristics of chlorophyll a, while minimizing atmospheric influences. Models were then applied to data previously acquired over the study area thre years earlier. Results are in the form of color-coded displays of predicted chlorophyll a concentrations and comparisons of the agreement among measured surface samples and predictions basedon coincident remotely sensed data. The influence of large variations in fresh-water inflow to the estuary are clearly apparent in the results. The synoptic view provided by remote sensing is another method of examining important estuarine dynamics difficult to observe from in situ sampling alone.

Galactic Cosmic-ray Transport in the Global Heliosphere: A Four-Dimensional Stochastic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Florinski, V.

2009-04-01

We study galactic cosmic-ray transport in the outer heliosphere and heliosheath using a newly developed transport model based on stochastic integration of the phase-space trajectories of Parker's equation. The model employs backward integration of the diffusion-convection transport equation using Ito calculus and is four-dimensional in space+momentum. We apply the model to the problem of galactic proton transport in the heliosphere during a negative solar minimum. Model results are compared with the Voyager measurements of galactic proton radial gradients and spectra in the heliosheath. We show that the heliosheath is not as efficient in diverting cosmic rays during solar minima as predicted by earlier two-dimensional models.

Head-Spine Structure Modeling: Enhancements to Secondary Loading Path Model and Validation of Head-Cervical Spine Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-07-01

cervical spine; 𔃽*an axisymmetric finite element analysis of a lumbar vertebral body with comparisons to other models and sJEecific attention to the...AXISYMMETRIC FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS OF A LUMBAR VERTEBRAL BODY 37 Model 40 Stress Nomenclature 42 Comparison of Models C and S 47 Comparison with Earlier...left and right sides. Each side of the diaphragm arises as one sternal slip, six costal slips and one lumbar slip. Accordingly, the origin of the

The PEARL Model of Sustainable Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bilgin, Mert

2012-01-01

This paper addresses perception (P), environment (E), action (A), relationship (R), and locality (L) as the social indicators of sustainable development (SD), the capital letters of which label the PEARL model. The paper refers to PEARL with regard to three aspects to elaborate the promises and limits of the model. Theoretically; it discusses…

Developing Enhanced Blood–Brain Barrier Permeability Models: Integrating External Bio-Assay Data in QSAR Modeling

PubMed Central

Wang, Wenyi; Kim, Marlene T.; Sedykh, Alexander

2015-01-01

Purpose Experimental Blood–Brain Barrier (BBB) permeability models for drug molecules are expensive and time-consuming. As alternative methods, several traditional Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) models have been developed previously. In this study, we aimed to improve the predictivity of traditional QSAR BBB permeability models by employing relevant public bio-assay data in the modeling process. Methods We compiled a BBB permeability database consisting of 439 unique compounds from various resources. The database was split into a modeling set of 341 compounds and a validation set of 98 compounds. Consensus QSAR modeling workflow was employed on the modeling set to develop various QSAR models. A five-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate the developed models, and the resulting models were used to predict the external validation set compounds. Furthermore, we used previously published membrane transporter models to generate relevant transporter profiles for target compounds. The transporter profiles were used as additional biological descriptors to develop hybrid QSAR BBB models. Results The consensus QSAR models have R2=0.638 for fivefold cross-validation and R2=0.504 for external validation. The consensus model developed by pooling chemical and transporter descriptors showed better predictivity (R2=0.646 for five-fold cross-validation and R2=0.526 for external validation). Moreover, several external bio-assays that correlate with BBB permeability were identified using our automatic profiling tool. Conclusions The BBB permeability models developed in this study can be useful for early evaluation of new compounds (e.g., new drug candidates). The combination of chemical and biological descriptors shows a promising direction to improve the current traditional QSAR models. PMID:25862462

Development and application of air quality models at the US ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Overview of the development and application of air quality models at the U.S. EPA, particularly focused on the development and application of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed within the Computation Exposure Division (CED) of the National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL). This presentation will provide a simple overview of air quality model development and application geared toward a non-technical student audience. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Limitations of JEDI Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

Science.gov Websites

precise forecast. The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are input-output based models for assessing economic impacts and jobs, including JEDI (see Chapter 5, pp. 136-142). The most not reflect many other economic impacts that could affect real-world impacts on jobs from the project

Training Module on the Development of Best Modeling Practices

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This module continues the fundamental concepts outlined in the previous modules. Objectives are to identify the ‘best modeling practices’ and strategies for the Development Stage of the model life-cycle and define the steps of model development.

The Waterfall Model in Large-Scale Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, Kai; Wohlin, Claes; Baca, Dejan

Waterfall development is still a widely used way of working in software development companies. Many problems have been reported related to the model. Commonly accepted problems are for example to cope with change and that defects all too often are detected too late in the software development process. However, many of the problems mentioned in literature are based on beliefs and experiences, and not on empirical evidence. To address this research gap, we compare the problems in literature with the results of a case study at Ericsson AB in Sweden, investigating issues in the waterfall model. The case study aims at validating or contradicting the beliefs of what the problems are in waterfall development through empirical research.

JEDI Publications | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

use of, or sometimes a discussion of, the JEDI models and their application to economic impact model. 2015 JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model (Factsheet). 2015. NREL/FS-5000-64129 Economic Development Impact (JEDI) User Reference Guide: Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model. NREL/TP-6A20

SSME structural dynamic model development, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foley, M. J.; Wilson, V. L.

1985-01-01

A set of test correlated mathematical models of the SSME High Pressure Oxygen Turbopump (HPOTP) housing and rotor assembly was produced. New analysis methods within the EISI/EAL and SPAR systems were investigated and runstreams for future use were developed. The LOX pump models have undergone extensive modification since the first phase of this effort was completed. The rotor assembly from the original model was abandoned and a new, more detailed model constructed. A description of the new rotor math model is presented. Also, the pump housing model was continually modified as additional test data have become available. This model is documented along with measured test results. Many of the more advanced features of the EAL/SPAR finite element analysis system were exercised. These included the cyclic symmetry option, the macro-element procedures, and the fluid analysis capability. In addition, a new tool was developed that allows an automated analysis of a disjoint structure in terms of its component modes. A complete description of the implementation of the Craig-Bampton method is given along with two worked examples.

A statistical model of the wave field in a bounded domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellsten, T.

2017-02-01

Numerical simulations of plasma heating with radiofrequency waves often require repetitive calculations of wave fields as the plasma evolves. To enable effective simulations, bench marked formulas of the power deposition have been developed. Here, a statistical model applicable to waves with short wavelengths is presented, which gives the expected amplitude of the wave field as a superposition of four wave fields with weight coefficients depending on the single pass damping, as. The weight coefficient for the wave field coherent with that calculated in the absence of reflection agrees with the coefficient for strong single pass damping of an earlier developed heuristic model, for which the weight coefficients were obtained empirically using a full wave code to calculate the wave field and power deposition. Antennas launching electromagnetic waves into bounded domains are often designed to produce localised wave fields and power depositions in the limit of strong single pass damping. The reflection of the waves changes the coupling that partly destroys the localisation of the wave field, which explains the apparent paradox arising from the earlier developed heuristic formula that only a fraction as2(2-as) and not as of the power is absorbed with a profile corresponding to the power deposition for the first pass of the rays. A method to account for the change in the coupling spectrum caused by reflection for modelling the wave field with ray tracing in bounded media is proposed, which should be applicable to wave propagation in non-uniform media in more general geometries.

Testing Strategies for Model-Based Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heimdahl, Mats P. E.; Whalen, Mike; Rajan, Ajitha; Miller, Steven P.

2006-01-01

This report presents an approach for testing artifacts generated in a model-based development process. This approach divides the traditional testing process into two parts: requirements-based testing (validation testing) which determines whether the model implements the high-level requirements and model-based testing (conformance testing) which determines whether the code generated from a model is behaviorally equivalent to the model. The goals of the two processes differ significantly and this report explores suitable testing metrics and automation strategies for each. To support requirements-based testing, we define novel objective requirements coverage metrics similar to existing specification and code coverage metrics. For model-based testing, we briefly describe automation strategies and examine the fault-finding capability of different structural coverage metrics using tests automatically generated from the model.

Teachers' Development Model to Authentic Assessment by Empowerment Evaluation Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charoenchai, Charin; Phuseeorn, Songsak; Phengsawat, Waro

2015-01-01

The purposes of this study were 1) Study teachers authentic assessment, teachers comprehension of authentic assessment and teachers needs for authentic assessment development. 2) To create teachers development model. 3) Experiment of teachers development model. 4) Evaluate effectiveness of teachers development model. The research is divided into 4…

Extension to Higher Mass Numbers of an Improved Knockout-Ablation-Coalescence Model for Secondary Neutron and Light Ion Production in Cosmic Ray Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Indi Sriprisan, Sirikul; Townsend, Lawrence; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Miller, Thomas M.

Purpose: An analytical knockout-ablation-coalescence model capable of making quantitative predictions of the neutron spectra from high-energy nucleon-nucleus and nucleus-nucleus collisions is being developed for use in space radiation protection studies. The FORTRAN computer code that implements this model is called UBERNSPEC. The knockout or abrasion stage of the model is based on Glauber multiple scattering theory. The ablation part of the model uses the classical evaporation model of Weisskopf-Ewing. In earlier work, the knockout-ablation model has been extended to incorporate important coalescence effects into the formalism. Recently, alpha coalescence has been incorporated, and the ability to predict light ion spectra with the coalescence model added. The earlier versions were limited to nuclei with mass numbers less than 69. In this work, the UBERNSPEC code has been extended to make predictions of secondary neutrons and light ion production from the interactions of heavy charged particles with higher mass numbers (as large as 238). The predictions are compared with published measurements of neutron spectra and light ion energy for a variety of collision pairs. Furthermore, the predicted spectra from this work are compared with the predictions from the recently-developed heavy ion event generator incorporated in the Monte Carlo radiation transport code HETC-HEDS.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hillery, R. V.; Pilsner, B. H.; Mcknight, R. L.; Cook, T. S.; Hartle, M. S.

1988-01-01

This report describes work performed to determine the predominat modes of degradation of a plasma sprayed thermal barrier coating system and to develop and verify life prediction models accounting for these degradation modes. The primary TBC system consisted of a low pressure plasma sprayed NiCrAlY bond coat, an air plasma sprayed ZrO2-Y2O3 top coat, and a Rene' 80 substrate. The work was divided into 3 technical tasks. The primary failure mode to be addressed was loss of the zirconia layer through spalling. Experiments showed that oxidation of the bond coat is a significant contributor to coating failure. It was evident from the test results that the species of oxide scale initially formed on the bond coat plays a role in coating degradation and failure. It was also shown that elevated temperature creep of the bond coat plays a role in coating failure. An empirical model was developed for predicting the test life of specimens with selected coating, specimen, and test condition variations. In the second task, a coating life prediction model was developed based on the data from Task 1 experiments, results from thermomechanical experiments performed as part of Task 2, and finite element analyses of the TBC system during thermal cycles. The third and final task attempted to verify the validity of the model developed in Task 2. This was done by using the model to predict the test lives of several coating variations and specimen geometries, then comparing these predicted lives to experimentally determined test lives. It was found that the model correctly predicts trends, but that additional refinement is needed to accurately predict coating life.

USEPA Resistance Management Model development

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA requires registrants of plant incorporated protectant (PIP) crops to provide information relating to the time frame for pest resistance development related to the control traits of the crop. Simulation models are used to evaluate the future conditions for resistance de...

A Thermal Model for Carbon Nanotube Interconnects

PubMed Central

Mohsin, Kaji Muhammad; Srivastava, Ashok; Sharma, Ashwani K.; Mayberry, Clay

2013-01-01

In this work, we have studied Joule heating in carbon nanotube based very large scale integration (VLSI) interconnects and incorporated Joule heating influenced scattering in our previously developed current transport model. The theoretical model explains breakdown in carbon nanotube resistance which limits the current density. We have also studied scattering parameters of carbon nanotube (CNT) interconnects and compared with the earlier work. For 1 µm length single-wall carbon nanotube, 3 dB frequency in S12 parameter reduces to ~120 GHz from 1 THz considering Joule heating. It has been found that bias voltage has little effect on scattering parameters, while length has very strong effect on scattering parameters. PMID:28348333

Advances in sepsis research derived from animal models.

PubMed

Männel, Daniela N

2007-09-01

Inflammation is the basic process by which tissues of the body respond to infection. Activation of the immune system normally leads to removal of microbial pathogens, and after resolution of the inflammation immune homeostasis is restored. This controlled process, however, can be disturbed resulting in disease. Therefore, many studies using infection models have investigated the participating immune mechanisms aiming at possible therapeutic interventions. Defined model substances such as bacterial lipopolysaccharide (endotoxin) have been used to mimic bacterial infections and analyze their immune stimulating functions. A complex network of molecular mechanisms involved in the recognition and activation processes of bacterial infections and their regulation has developed from these studies. More complex infection models will now help to interpret earlier observations leading to the design of relevant new infection models.

Development of dark disk model of positron anomaly origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belotsky, K. M.; Kirillov, A. A.; Solovyov, M. L.

Dark disk model could be a remedy for dark matter (DM) explanation of positron anomaly (PA) in cosmic rays (CR). The main difficulty in PA explanation relates to cosmic gamma-radiation which is inevitably produced in DM annihilation or decay leading to tension with respective observation data. Introduction of “active” (producing CR) DM component concentrating in galactic disk alleviates this tension. Earlier, we considered 2-lepton modes, with branching ratios being chosen to fit in the best way all the observation data. Here we considered, in the framework of the same dark disk model, two cases: 2-body final state annihilation and 4-body one, and in each case a quark mode is added to the leptonic ones. It is shown that 4-body mode case is a little better than 2-body one from viewpoint of quality of observation data description at the fixed all other parameters (of CR propagation, background, disk height). The values of DM particle mass around 350GeV and 500GeV are more favorable for 2- and 4-body modes, respectively. Higher values would improve description of data on positrons only but accounting for data on gamma-radiation prevents it because of unwanted more abundant high-energy gamma production. Inclusion of the quark modes improves a little fitting data in both 4- and 2-body mode cases, contrary to naive expectations. In fact, quark mode has a bigger gammas yield than that of most gamma-productive leptonic mode — tau, but they are softer due to bigger final state hadron multiplicity.

Development of mathematical models of environmental physiology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolwijk, J. A. J.; Mitchell, J. W.; Nadel, E. R.

1971-01-01

Selected articles concerned with mathematical or simulation models of human thermoregulation are presented. The articles presented include: (1) development and use of simulation models in medicine, (2) model of cardio-vascular adjustments during exercise, (3) effective temperature scale based on simple model of human physiological regulatory response, (4) behavioral approach to thermoregulatory set point during exercise, and (5) importance of skin temperature in sweat regulation.

Developing a model for moisture in saltcake waste tanks: Progress report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simmons, C.S.; Aimo, N.; Fayer, M.J.

1997-07-01

This report describes a modeling effort to provide a computer simulation capability for estimating the distribution and movement of moisture in the saltcake-type waste contained in Hanford`s single-shell radioactive waste storage tanks. This moisture model goes beyond an earlier version because it describes water vapor movement as well as the interstitial liquid held in a saltcake waste. The work was performed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to assist Duke Engineering and Services Hanford with the Organic Tank Safety Program. The Organic Tank Safety Program is concerned whether saltcake waste, when stabilized by jet pumping, will retain sufficient moisture near themore » surface to preclude any possibility of an accidental ignition and propagation of burning. The nitrate/nitrite saltcake, which might also potentially include combustible organic chemicals might not always retain enough moisture near the surface to preclude any such accident. Draining liquid from a tank by pumping, coupled with moisture evaporating into a tank`s head space, may cause a dry waste surface that is not inherently safe. The moisture model was devised to help examine this safety question. The model accounts for water being continually cycled by evaporation into the head space and returned to the waste by condensation or partly lost through venting to the external atmosphere. Water evaporation occurs even in a closed tank, because it is driven by the transfer to the outside of the heat load generated by radioactivity within the waste. How dry a waste may become over time depends on the particular hydraulic properties of a saltcake, and the model uses those properties to describe the capillary flow of interstitial liquid as well as the water vapor flow caused by thermal differences within the porous waste.« less

Simulation Model Development for Icing Effects Flight Training

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnhart, Billy P.; Dickes, Edward G.; Gingras, David R.; Ratvasky, Thomas P.

2003-01-01

A high-fidelity simulation model for icing effects flight training was developed from wind tunnel data for the DeHavilland DHC-6 Twin Otter aircraft. First, a flight model of the un-iced airplane was developed and then modifications were generated to model the icing conditions. The models were validated against data records from the NASA Twin Otter Icing Research flight test program with only minimal refinements being required. The goals of this program were to demonstrate the effectiveness of such a simulator for training pilots to recognize and recover from icing situations and to establish a process for modeling icing effects to be used for future training devices.

Development Model for Research Infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wächter, Joachim; Hammitzsch, Martin; Kerschke, Dorit; Lauterjung, Jörn

2015-04-01

. The maturity of individual scientific domains differs considerably. • Technologically and organisationally many different RI components have to be integrated. Individual systems are often complex and have a long-term history. Existing approaches are on different maturity levels, e.g. in relation to the standardisation of interfaces. • The concrete implementation process consists of independent and often parallel development activities. In many cases no detailed architectural blue-print for the envisioned system exists. • Most of the funding currently available for RI implementation is provided on a project basis. To increase the synergies in infrastructure development the authors propose a specific RI Maturity Model (RIMM) that is specifically qualified for open system-of-system environments. RIMM is based on the concepts of Capability Maturity Models for organisational development, concretely the Levels of Conceptual Interoperability Model (LCIM) specifying the technical, syntactical, semantic, pragmatic, dynamic, and conceptual layers of interoperation [1]. The model is complemented by the identification and integration of growth factors (according to the Nolan Stages Theory [2]). These factors include supply and demand factors. Supply factors comprise available resources, e.g., data, services and IT-management capabilities including organisations and IT-personal. Demand factors are the overall application portfolio for RIs but also the skills and requirements of scientists and communities using the infrastructure. RIMM thus enables a balanced development process of RI and RI components by evaluating the status of the supply and demand factors in relation to specific levels of interoperability. [1] Tolk, A., Diallo, A., Turnitsa, C. (2007): Applying the Levels of Conceptual Interoperability Model in Support of Integratability, Interoperability, and Composability for System-of-Systems Engineering. Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics, Volume 5 - Number 5. [2

Giant-Magnetoresistance(GMR) Siegel KEY FIRST Experimental Discovery Decade-Earlier PRE-``Fert"-``Gruenberg" in Nuc"el"ar ``Super"alloys: Science?;``SEANCE!!!; Ethics?; SHMETHICS!!!

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, R.; Siegel, E.

2010-03-01

(So MIScalled) ``Fert"-``Grunberg"[PRL(1988;1989)] GMR 2007 physics Nobel/Wolf/Japan-Prizes VS. decade-earlier(1973-1977) KEY FIRST Siegel at:Westin"kl"ouse/PSEG/IAEA/ABB[google:``Martin Ebner"(94-04) in financial media]/Vattenfall/Wallenbergs/nuc"el"ar-DoE Labs[at flickr.com, search on ``Giant- Magnotoresistance''; find: Intl.Conf.Mag.Alloys & Oxides(ICMAO), Haifa(Aug./1977); J.Mag.Mag.Mtls,(JMMM)7,312(1978)``unavailable: not yet scanned''/modified(last R(H) GMR Figs(7;8) deleted!!!) on JMMM/Reed-Elsevier website until 7/29/08 conveniently one- half-year after last (Nobel)award(12/2007); conveniently effectively deleted!!!; google: ``If Leaks Could Kill''; many APS/MRS Mtgs(1970s)<<<1988/1989] decade-earlier GMR: (1978)<<< (1988); 1988-1978 =10 years = one full decadeprecedence!!!] first experimental discovery in (so MIScalled) ``super''alloys [182/82, Hastelloy-X, 600, 690(!!!), Stainless-Steels: ANY/ALL!!!] generic endemic Wigner's[JAP,17,857(1946)]- disease/Ostwald-ripening/spinodal-decomposition/overageing- embrittlement/ thermo-mechanical-INstability!

Field evidence for earlier leaf-out dates in alpine grassland on the eastern Tibetan Plateau from 1990 to 2006.

PubMed

Zhou, H K; Yao, B Q; Xu, W X; Ye, X; Fu, J J; Jin, Y X; Zhao, X Q

2014-08-01

Worldwide, many plant species are experiencing an earlier onset of spring phenophases due to climate warming. Rapid recent temperature increases on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have triggered changes in the spring phenology of the local vegetation. However, remote sensing studies of the land surface phenology have reached conflicting interpretations about green-up patterns observed on the TP since the mid-1990s. We investigated this issue using field phenological observations from 1990 to 2006, for 11 dominant plants on the TP at the levels of species, families (Gramineae-grasses and Cyperaceae-sedges) and vegetation communities (alpine meadow and alpine steppe). We found a significant trend of earlier leaf-out dates for one species (Koeleria cristata). The leaf-out dates of both Gramineae and Cyperaceae had advanced (the latter significantly, starting an average of 9 days later per year than the former), but the correlation between them was significant. The leaf-out dates of both vegetation communities also advanced, but the pattern was only significant in the alpine meadow. This study provides the first field evidence of advancement in spring leaf phenology on the TP and suggests that the phenology of the alpine steppe can differ from that of the alpine meadow. These findings will be useful for understanding ecosystem responses to climate change and for grassland management on the TP. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Development of hierarchical structures for actions and motor imagery: a constructivist view from synthetic neuro-robotics study.

PubMed

Nishimoto, Ryunosuke; Tani, Jun

2009-07-01

The current paper shows a neuro-robotics experiment on developmental learning of goal-directed actions. The robot was trained to predict visuo-proprioceptive flow of achieving a set of goal-directed behaviors through iterative tutor training processes. The learning was conducted by employing a dynamic neural network model which is characterized by their multiple time-scale dynamics. The experimental results showed that functional hierarchical structures emerge through stages of developments where behavior primitives are generated in earlier stages and their sequences of achieving goals appear in later stages. It was also observed that motor imagery is generated in earlier stages compared to actual behaviors. Our claim that manipulatable inner representation should emerge through the sensory-motor interactions is corresponded to Piaget's constructivist view.

Developments in the Gung Ho dynamical core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melvin, Thomas

2017-04-01

Gung Ho is the new dynamical core being developed for the next generation Met Office weather and climate model, suitable for meeting the exascale challenge on emerging computer architectures. It builds upon the earlier collaborative project between the Met Office, NERC and STFC Daresbury of the same name to investigate suitable numerical methods for dynamical cores. A mixed-finite element approach is used, where different finite element spaces are used to represent various fields. This method provides a number of beneficial improvements over the current model, such a compatibility and inherent conservation on quasi-uniform unstructured meshes, whilst maintaining the accuracy and good dispersion properties of the staggered grid currently used. Furthermore, the mixed finite element approach allows a large degree of flexibility in the type of mesh, order of approximation and discretisation, providing a simple way to test alternative options to obtain the best model possible.

3D physical modeling for patterning process development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarma, Chandra; Abdo, Amr; Bailey, Todd; Conley, Will; Dunn, Derren; Marokkey, Sajan; Talbi, Mohamed

2010-03-01

In this paper we will demonstrate how a 3D physical patterning model can act as a forensic tool for OPC and ground-rule development. We discuss examples where the 2D modeling shows no issues in printing gate lines but 3D modeling shows severe resist loss in the middle. In absence of corrective measure, there is a high likelihood of line discontinuity post etch. Such early insight into process limitations of prospective ground rules can be invaluable for early technology development. We will also demonstrate how the root cause of broken poly-line after etch could be traced to resist necking in the region of STI step with the help of 3D models. We discuss different cases of metal and contact layouts where 3D modeling gives an early insight in to technology limitations. In addition such a 3D physical model could be used for early resist evaluation and selection for required ground-rule challenges, which can substantially reduce the cycle time for process development.

Neural network modeling of emotion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levine, Daniel S.

2007-03-01

This article reviews the history and development of computational neural network modeling of cognitive and behavioral processes that involve emotion. The exposition starts with models of classical conditioning dating from the early 1970s. Then it proceeds toward models of interactions between emotion and attention. Then models of emotional influences on decision making are reviewed, including some speculative (not and not yet simulated) models of the evolution of decision rules. Through the late 1980s, the neural networks developed to model emotional processes were mainly embodiments of significant functional principles motivated by psychological data. In the last two decades, network models of these processes have become much more detailed in their incorporation of known physiological properties of specific brain regions, while preserving many of the psychological principles from the earlier models. Most network models of emotional processes so far have dealt with positive and negative emotion in general, rather than specific emotions such as fear, joy, sadness, and anger. But a later section of this article reviews a few models relevant to specific emotions: one family of models of auditory fear conditioning in rats, and one model of induced pleasure enhancing creativity in humans. Then models of emotional disorders are reviewed. The article concludes with philosophical statements about the essential contributions of emotion to intelligent behavior and the importance of quantitative theories and models to the interdisciplinary enterprise of understanding the interactions of emotion, cognition, and behavior.

Model-Based Development of Automotive Electronic Climate Control Software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakade, Rupesh; Murugesan, Mohan; Perugu, Bhupal; Nair, Mohanan

With increasing complexity of software in today's products, writing and maintaining thousands of lines of code is a tedious task. Instead, an alternative methodology must be employed. Model-based development is one candidate that offers several benefits and allows engineers to focus on the domain of their expertise than writing huge codes. In this paper, we discuss the application of model-based development to the electronic climate control software of vehicles. The back-to-back testing approach is presented that ensures flawless and smooth transition from legacy designs to the model-based development. Simulink report generator to create design documents from the models is presented along with its usage to run the simulation model and capture the results into the test report. Test automation using model-based development tool that support the use of unique set of test cases for several testing levels and the test procedure that is independent of software and hardware platform is also presented.

Alloy Design Workbench-Surface Modeling Package Developed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abel, Phillip B.; Noebe, Ronald D.; Bozzolo, Guillermo H.; Good, Brian S.; Daugherty, Elaine S.

2003-01-01

NASA Glenn Research Center's Computational Materials Group has integrated a graphical user interface with in-house-developed surface modeling capabilities, with the goal of using computationally efficient atomistic simulations to aid the development of advanced aerospace materials, through the modeling of alloy surfaces, surface alloys, and segregation. The software is also ideal for modeling nanomaterials, since surface and interfacial effects can dominate material behavior and properties at this level. Through the combination of an accurate atomistic surface modeling methodology and an efficient computational engine, it is now possible to directly model these types of surface phenomenon and metallic nanostructures without a supercomputer. Fulfilling a High Operating Temperature Propulsion Components (HOTPC) project level-I milestone, a graphical user interface was created for a suite of quantum approximate atomistic materials modeling Fortran programs developed at Glenn. The resulting "Alloy Design Workbench-Surface Modeling Package" (ADW-SMP) is the combination of proven quantum approximate Bozzolo-Ferrante-Smith (BFS) algorithms (refs. 1 and 2) with a productivity-enhancing graphical front end. Written in the portable, platform independent Java programming language, the graphical user interface calls on extensively tested Fortran programs running in the background for the detailed computational tasks. Designed to run on desktop computers, the package has been deployed on PC, Mac, and SGI computer systems. The graphical user interface integrates two modes of computational materials exploration. One mode uses Monte Carlo simulations to determine lowest energy equilibrium configurations. The second approach is an interactive "what if" comparison of atomic configuration energies, designed to provide real-time insight into the underlying drivers of alloying processes.

Adolescent Psychosocial Development: A Review of Longitudinal Models and Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meeus, Wim

2016-01-01

This review used 4 types of longitudinal models (descriptive models, prediction models, developmental sequence models and longitudinal mediation models) to identify regular patterns of psychosocial development in adolescence. Eight patterns of adolescent development were observed across countries: (1) adolescent maturation in multiple…

Scripting MODFLOW Model Development Using Python and FloPy.

PubMed

Bakker, M; Post, V; Langevin, C D; Hughes, J D; White, J T; Starn, J J; Fienen, M N

2016-09-01

Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) are commonly used to construct and postprocess numerical groundwater flow and transport models. Scripting model development with the programming language Python is presented here as an alternative approach. One advantage of Python is that there are many packages available to facilitate the model development process, including packages for plotting, array manipulation, optimization, and data analysis. For MODFLOW-based models, the FloPy package was developed by the authors to construct model input files, run the model, and read and plot simulation results. Use of Python with the available scientific packages and FloPy facilitates data exploration, alternative model evaluations, and model analyses that can be difficult to perform with GUIs. Furthermore, Python scripts are a complete, transparent, and repeatable record of the modeling process. The approach is introduced with a simple FloPy example to create and postprocess a MODFLOW model. A more complicated capture-fraction analysis with a real-world model is presented to demonstrate the types of analyses that can be performed using Python and FloPy. © 2016, National Ground Water Association.

Scripting MODFLOW model development using Python and FloPy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bakker, Mark; Post, Vincent E. A.; Langevin, Christian D.; Hughes, Joseph D.; White, Jeremy; Starn, Jeffrey; Fienen, Michael N.

2016-01-01

Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) are commonly used to construct and postprocess numerical groundwater flow and transport models. Scripting model development with the programming language Python is presented here as an alternative approach. One advantage of Python is that there are many packages available to facilitate the model development process, including packages for plotting, array manipulation, optimization, and data analysis. For MODFLOW-based models, the FloPy package was developed by the authors to construct model input files, run the model, and read and plot simulation results. Use of Python with the available scientific packages and FloPy facilitates data exploration, alternative model evaluations, and model analyses that can be difficult to perform with GUIs. Furthermore, Python scripts are a complete, transparent, and repeatable record of the modeling process. The approach is introduced with a simple FloPy example to create and postprocess a MODFLOW model. A more complicated capture-fraction analysis with a real-world model is presented to demonstrate the types of analyses that can be performed using Python and FloPy.

Statistical models of lunar rocks and regolith

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marcus, A. H.

1973-01-01

The mathematical, statistical, and computational approaches used in the investigation of the interrelationship of lunar fragmental material, regolith, lunar rocks, and lunar craters are described. The first two phases of the work explored the sensitivity of the production model of fragmental material to mathematical assumptions, and then completed earlier studies on the survival of lunar surface rocks with respect to competing processes. The third phase combined earlier work into a detailed statistical analysis and probabilistic model of regolith formation by lithologically distinct layers, interpreted as modified crater ejecta blankets. The fourth phase of the work dealt with problems encountered in combining the results of the entire project into a comprehensive, multipurpose computer simulation model for the craters and regolith. Highlights of each phase of research are given.

Development of Macroscale Models of UO 2 Fuel Sintering and Densification using Multiscale Modeling and Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greenquist, Ian; Tonks, Michael

2016-10-01

Light water reactor fuel pellets are fabricated using sintering to final densities of 95% or greater. During reactor operation, the porosity remaining in the fuel after fabrication decreases further due to irradiation-assisted densification. While empirical models have been developed to describe this densification process, a mechanistic model is needed as part of the ongoing work by the NEAMS program to develop a more predictive fuel performance code. In this work we will develop a phase field model of sintering of UO 2 in the MARMOT code, and validate it by comparing to published sintering data. We will then add themore » capability to capture irradiation effects into the model, and use it to develop a mechanistic model of densification that will go into the BISON code and add another essential piece to the microstructure-based materials models. The final step will be to add the effects of applied fields, to model field-assisted sintering of UO 2. The results of the phase field model will be validated by comparing to data from field-assisted sintering. Tasks over three years: 1. Develop a sintering model for UO 2 in MARMOT 2. Expand model to account for irradiation effects 3. Develop a mechanistic macroscale model of densification for BISON« less

Modelling vortex-induced fluid-structure interaction.

PubMed

Benaroya, Haym; Gabbai, Rene D

2008-04-13

The principal goal of this research is developing physics-based, reduced-order, analytical models of nonlinear fluid-structure interactions associated with offshore structures. Our primary focus is to generalize the Hamilton's variational framework so that systems of flow-oscillator equations can be derived from first principles. This is an extension of earlier work that led to a single energy equation describing the fluid-structure interaction. It is demonstrated here that flow-oscillator models are a subclass of the general, physical-based framework. A flow-oscillator model is a reduced-order mechanical model, generally comprising two mechanical oscillators, one modelling the structural oscillation and the other a nonlinear oscillator representing the fluid behaviour coupled to the structural motion.Reduced-order analytical model development continues to be carried out using a Hamilton's principle-based variational approach. This provides flexibility in the long run for generalizing the modelling paradigm to complex, three-dimensional problems with multiple degrees of freedom, although such extension is very difficult. As both experimental and analytical capabilities advance, the critical research path to developing and implementing fluid-structure interaction models entails-formulating generalized equations of motion, as a superset of the flow-oscillator models; and-developing experimentally derived, semi-analytical functions to describe key terms in the governing equations of motion. The developed variational approach yields a system of governing equations. This will allow modelling of multiple d.f. systems. The extensions derived generalize the Hamilton's variational formulation for such problems. The Navier-Stokes equations are derived and coupled to the structural oscillator. This general model has been shown to be a superset of the flow-oscillator model. Based on different assumptions, one can derive a variety of flow-oscillator models.

Knowledge Management Model: Practical Application for Competency Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lustri, Denise; Miura, Irene; Takahashi, Sergio

2007-01-01

Purpose: This paper seeks to present a knowledge management (KM) conceptual model for competency development and a case study in a law service firm, which implemented the KM model in a competencies development program. Design/methodology/approach: The case study method was applied according to Yin (2003) concepts, focusing a six-professional group…

Quantitative electroencephalography in a swine model of blast-induced brain injury.

PubMed

Chen, Chaoyang; Zhou, Chengpeng; Cavanaugh, John M; Kallakuri, Srinivasu; Desai, Alok; Zhang, Liying; King, Albert I

2017-01-01

Electroencephalography (EEG) was used to examine brain activity abnormalities earlier after blast exposure using a swine model to develop a qEEG data analysis protocol. Anaesthetized swine were exposed to 420-450 Kpa blast overpressure and survived for 3 days after blast. EEG recordings were performed at 15 minutes before the blast and 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 2 hours and 1, 2 and 3 days post-blast using surface recording electrodes and a Biopac 4-channel data acquisition system. Off-line quantitative EEG (qEEG) data analysis was performed to determine qEEG changes. Blast induced qEEG changes earlier after blast exposure, including a decrease of mean amplitude (MAMP), an increase of delta band power, a decrease of alpha band root mean square (RMS) and a decrease of 90% spectral edge frequency (SEF90). This study demonstrated that qEEG is sensitive for cerebral injury. The changes of qEEG earlier after the blast indicate the potential of utilization of multiple parameters of qEEG for diagnosis of blast-induced brain injury. Early detection of blast induced brain injury will allow early screening and assessment of brain abnormalities in soldiers to enable timely therapeutic intervention.

A two-state hysteresis model from high-dimensional friction

PubMed Central

Biswas, Saurabh; Chatterjee, Anindya

2015-01-01

In prior work (Biswas & Chatterjee 2014 Proc. R. Soc. A 470, 20130817 (doi:10.1098/rspa.2013.0817)), we developed a six-state hysteresis model from a high-dimensional frictional system. Here, we use a more intuitively appealing frictional system that resembles one studied earlier by Iwan. The basis functions now have simple analytical description. The number of states required decreases further, from six to the theoretical minimum of two. The number of fitted parameters is reduced by an order of magnitude, to just six. An explicit and faster numerical solution method is developed. Parameter fitting to match different specified hysteresis loops is demonstrated. In summary, a new two-state model of hysteresis is presented that is ready for practical implementation. Essential Matlab code is provided. PMID:26587279

ANIMAL MODELS OF COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT IN NEUROTOXICITY

EPA Science Inventory

The thesis of this chapter has been that spatial delayed alternation versus position discrimination learning can serve as a valuable rodent model of cognitive development in neurotoxicology. his model captures dual process conceptualizations of memory in human neuropsychology and...

Clinical Predictive Modeling Development and Deployment through FHIR Web Services.

PubMed

Khalilia, Mohammed; Choi, Myung; Henderson, Amelia; Iyengar, Sneha; Braunstein, Mark; Sun, Jimeng

2015-01-01

Clinical predictive modeling involves two challenging tasks: model development and model deployment. In this paper we demonstrate a software architecture for developing and deploying clinical predictive models using web services via the Health Level 7 (HL7) Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) standard. The services enable model development using electronic health records (EHRs) stored in OMOP CDM databases and model deployment for scoring individual patients through FHIR resources. The MIMIC2 ICU dataset and a synthetic outpatient dataset were transformed into OMOP CDM databases for predictive model development. The resulting predictive models are deployed as FHIR resources, which receive requests of patient information, perform prediction against the deployed predictive model and respond with prediction scores. To assess the practicality of this approach we evaluated the response and prediction time of the FHIR modeling web services. We found the system to be reasonably fast with one second total response time per patient prediction.

Clinical Predictive Modeling Development and Deployment through FHIR Web Services

PubMed Central

Khalilia, Mohammed; Choi, Myung; Henderson, Amelia; Iyengar, Sneha; Braunstein, Mark; Sun, Jimeng

2015-01-01

Clinical predictive modeling involves two challenging tasks: model development and model deployment. In this paper we demonstrate a software architecture for developing and deploying clinical predictive models using web services via the Health Level 7 (HL7) Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) standard. The services enable model development using electronic health records (EHRs) stored in OMOP CDM databases and model deployment for scoring individual patients through FHIR resources. The MIMIC2 ICU dataset and a synthetic outpatient dataset were transformed into OMOP CDM databases for predictive model development. The resulting predictive models are deployed as FHIR resources, which receive requests of patient information, perform prediction against the deployed predictive model and respond with prediction scores. To assess the practicality of this approach we evaluated the response and prediction time of the FHIR modeling web services. We found the system to be reasonably fast with one second total response time per patient prediction. PMID:26958207

Assessment of risk factors for earlier onset of sporadic Alzheimer's disease dementia.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Fabricio Ferreira; Bertolucci, Paulo Henrique Ferreira; Chen, Elizabeth Suchi; Smith, Marilia Cardoso

2014-01-01

Pharmacological treatment has mild effects for patients with Alzheimer's disease dementia (AD); therefore, the search for modifiable risk factors is an important challenge. Though risk factors for AD are widely recognized, elements that influence the time of dementia onset have not been comprehensively reported. We aimed to investigate which risk factors might be related to the age of onset of AD in a sample of patients with highly variable educational levels, taking into account the Framingham risk scoring as the sole measure of vascular risk. We included 209 consecutive late-onset AD patients to find out which factors among educational levels, coronary heart disease risk estimated by way of Framingham risk scores, history of head trauma or depression, surgical procedures under general anesthesia, family history of neurodegenerative diseases, gender, marital status and APOE haplotypes might be related to the age of dementia onset in this sample of patients with low mean schooling. Mean age of AD onset was 73.38±6.5 years old, unaffected by schooling or family history of neurodegenerative diseases. Patients who were APOE-ε4 carriers, married, or with history of depression, had earlier onset of AD, particularly when they were women. Coronary heart disease risk was marginally significant for later onset of AD. APOE haplotypes, marital status and history of depression were the most important factors to influence the age of AD onset in this sample. While midlife cerebrovascular risk factors may increase incidence of AD, they may lead to later dementia onset when present in late life.

Appalachia: Goals, Objectives and Development Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Appalachian Regional Commission, Washington, DC.

Goals, objectives, and strategies for development in the 13 states involved in the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC) are detailed in this document adopted by ARC in 1977. The regional development plan incorporates earlier evaluation and program design efforts, discussion from an issues report, state comments and development plans, and public…

Developments in Coastal Ocean Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, J. S.

2001-12-01

Capabilities in modeling continental shelf flow fields have improved markedly in the last several years. Progress is being made toward the long term scientific goal of utilizing numerical circulation models to interpolate, or extrapolate, necessarily limited field measurements to provide additional full-field information describing the behavior of, and providing dynamical rationalizations for, complex observed coastal flow. The improvement in modeling capabilities has been due to several factors including an increase in computer power and, importantly, an increase in experience of modelers in formulating relevant numerical experiments and in analyzing model results. We demonstrate present modeling capabilities and limitations by discussion of results from recent studies of shelf circulation off Oregon and northern California (joint work with Newberger, Gan, Oke, Pullen, and Wijesekera). Strong interactions between wind-forced coastal currents and continental shelf topography characterize the flow regimes in these cases. Favorable comparisons of model and measured alongshore currents and other variables provide confidence in the model-produced fields. The dependence of the mesoscale circulation, including upwelling and downwelling fronts and flow instabilities, on the submodel used to parameterize the effects of small scale turbulence, is discussed. Analyses of model results to provide explanations for the observed, but previously unexplained, alongshore variability in the intensity of coastal upwelling, which typically results in colder surface water south of capes, and the observed development in some locations of northward currents near the coast in response to the relaxation of southward winds, are presented.

A delta-rule model of numerical and non-numerical order processing.

PubMed

Verguts, Tom; Van Opstal, Filip

2014-06-01

Numerical and non-numerical order processing share empirical characteristics (distance effect and semantic congruity), but there are also important differences (in size effect and end effect). At the same time, models and theories of numerical and non-numerical order processing developed largely separately. Currently, we combine insights from 2 earlier models to integrate them in a common framework. We argue that the same learning principle underlies numerical and non-numerical orders, but that environmental features determine the empirical differences. Implications for current theories on order processing are pointed out. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Linking Goal-Oriented Requirements and Model-Driven Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, Oscar; Giachetti, Giovanni

In the context of Goal-Oriented Requirement Engineering (GORE) there are interesting modeling approaches for the analysis of complex scenarios that are oriented to obtain and represent the relevant requirements for the development of software products. However, the way to use these GORE models in an automated Model-Driven Development (MDD) process is not clear, and, in general terms, the translation of these models into the final software products is still manually performed. Therefore, in this chapter, we show an approach to automatically link GORE models and MDD processes, which has been elaborated by considering the experience obtained from linking the i * framework with an industrially applied MDD approach. The linking approach proposed is formulated by means of a generic process that is based on current modeling standards and technologies in order to facilitate its application for different MDD and GORE approaches. Special attention is paid to how this process generates appropriate model transformation mechanisms to automatically obtain MDD conceptual models from GORE models, and how it can be used to specify validation mechanisms to assure the correct model transformations.

[The mathematical modelling of the possible morbidity from epidemic louse-borne typhus under current conditions].

PubMed

Lukin, E P; Mikhaĭlov, V V; Oleĭchik, V L; Solodiankin, A I

1996-01-01

On the basis of their earlier formula for modeling the possible development of the epidemic process of louse-borne exanthematous typhus the authors have calculated the probability of the development of such process for high indices (10 -- 12 % of convalescents with louse contamination rate among them reaching 20 -- 40 %) characterizing this process. The number of sources of this infection (primary patients), as well as the rate of increase and scale of louse contamination of the population, are of prime importance for the prognostication of the development of the epidemic.

Space market model development project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bishop, Peter C.

1987-01-01

The objectives of the research program, Space Market Model Development Project, (Phase 1) were: (1) to study the need for business information in the commercial development of space; and (2) to propose a design for an information system to meet the identified needs. Three simultaneous research strategies were used in proceeding toward this goal: (1) to describe the space business information which currently exists; (2) to survey government and business representatives on the information they would like to have; and (3) to investigate the feasibility of generating new economical information about the space industry.

Intermediate-term emotional bookkeeping is necessary for long-term reciprocal grooming partner preferences in an agent-based model of macaque groups

PubMed Central

Evers, Ellen; de Vries, Han; Spruijt, Berry M.

2016-01-01

Whether and how primates are able to maintain long-term affiliative relationships is still under debate. Emotional bookkeeping (EB), the partner-specific accumulation of emotional responses to earlier interactions, is a candidate mechanism that does not require high cognitive abilities. EB is difficult to study in real animals, due to the complexity of primate social life. Therefore, we developed an agent-based model based on macaque behavior, the EMO-model, that implements arousal and two emotional dimensions, anxiety-FEAR and satisfaction-LIKE, which regulate social behavior. To implement EB, model individuals assign dynamic LIKE attitudes towards their group members, integrating partner-specific emotional responses to earlier received grooming episodes. Two key parameters in the model were varied to explore their effects on long-term affiliative relationships: (1) the timeframe over which earlier affiliation is accumulated into the LIKE attitudes; and (2) the degree of partner selectivity. EB over short and long timeframes gave rise to low variation in LIKE attitudes, and grooming partner preferences were only maintained over one to two months. Only EB over intermediate-term timeframes resulted in enough variation in LIKE attitudes, which, in combination with high partner selectivity, enables individuals to differentiate between regular and incidental grooming partners. These specific settings resulted in a strong feedback between differentiated LIKE attitudes and the distribution of grooming, giving rise to strongly reciprocated partner preferences that could be maintained for longer periods, occasionally up to one or two years. Moreover, at these settings the individual’s internal, socio-emotional memory of earlier affiliative episodes (LIKE attitudes) corresponded best to observable behavior (grooming partner preferences). In sum, our model suggests that intermediate-term LIKE dynamics and high partner selectivity seem most plausible for primates relying on

Intermediate-term emotional bookkeeping is necessary for long-term reciprocal grooming partner preferences in an agent-based model of macaque groups.

PubMed

Evers, Ellen; de Vries, Han; Spruijt, Berry M; Sterck, Elisabeth H M

2016-01-01

Whether and how primates are able to maintain long-term affiliative relationships is still under debate. Emotional bookkeeping (EB), the partner-specific accumulation of emotional responses to earlier interactions, is a candidate mechanism that does not require high cognitive abilities. EB is difficult to study in real animals, due to the complexity of primate social life. Therefore, we developed an agent-based model based on macaque behavior, the EMO-model, that implements arousal and two emotional dimensions, anxiety-FEAR and satisfaction-LIKE, which regulate social behavior. To implement EB, model individuals assign dynamic LIKE attitudes towards their group members, integrating partner-specific emotional responses to earlier received grooming episodes. Two key parameters in the model were varied to explore their effects on long-term affiliative relationships: (1) the timeframe over which earlier affiliation is accumulated into the LIKE attitudes; and (2) the degree of partner selectivity. EB over short and long timeframes gave rise to low variation in LIKE attitudes, and grooming partner preferences were only maintained over one to two months. Only EB over intermediate-term timeframes resulted in enough variation in LIKE attitudes, which, in combination with high partner selectivity, enables individuals to differentiate between regular and incidental grooming partners. These specific settings resulted in a strong feedback between differentiated LIKE attitudes and the distribution of grooming, giving rise to strongly reciprocated partner preferences that could be maintained for longer periods, occasionally up to one or two years. Moreover, at these settings the individual's internal, socio-emotional memory of earlier affiliative episodes (LIKE attitudes) corresponded best to observable behavior (grooming partner preferences). In sum, our model suggests that intermediate-term LIKE dynamics and high partner selectivity seem most plausible for primates relying on

Development of CE-QUAL-W2 models for the Middle Fork Willamette and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buccola, Norman L.; Stonewall, Adam J.; Sullivan, Annett B.; Kim, Yoonhee; Rounds, Stewart A.

2013-01-01

2011, but simulations were much more accurate in 2006 and 2008. This episodic model bias may have been a result of hot, dry conditions; lower lake elevations; and earlier drawdown at both HCL and LOP in 2002. These dry conditions in 2002 may have contradicted assumptions inherent in the estimation of certain model inputs, such as unmeasured inflows and water temperatures, which may respond differently during dry years than during normal and wet years. This report documents the development and calibration of new and revised flow and water-temperature models for riverine and reservoir reaches in the Middle Fork Willamette River and South Santiam River systems. Methods and model parameter values were established for the accurate simulation of flows and temperatures in these systems under current conditions. By extension, these models should be able to accurately simulate flows and temperatures under potential future conditions in which dam operations and dam outlet structures may be changed as part of a strategy to improve habitat, fish passage, and temperature conditions for endangered fish.