Age-Related Differences in Susceptibility to Carcinogenesis. II. Approaches for Application and Uncertainty Analyses for Individual Genetically Acting Carcinogens

PubMed Central

Hattis, Dale; Goble, Robert; Chu, Margaret

2005-01-01

In an earlier report we developed a quantitative likelihood-based analysis of the differences in sensitivity of rodents to mutagenic carcinogens across three life stages (fetal, birth to weaning, and weaning to 60 days) relative to exposures in adult life. Here we draw implications for assessing human risks for full lifetime exposures, taking into account three types of uncertainties in making projections from the rodent data: uncertainty in the central estimates of the life-stage–specific sensitivity factors estimated earlier, uncertainty from chemical-to-chemical differences in life-stage–specific sensitivities for carcinogenesis, and uncertainty in the mapping of rodent life stages to human ages/exposure periods. Among the uncertainties analyzed, the mapping of rodent life stages to human ages/exposure periods is most important quantitatively (a range of several-fold in estimates of the duration of the human equivalent of the highest sensitivity “birth to weaning” period in rodents). The combined effects of these uncertainties are estimated with Monte Carlo analyses. Overall, the estimated population arithmetic mean risk from lifetime exposures at a constant milligrams per kilogram body weight level to a generic mutagenic carcinogen is about 2.8-fold larger than expected from adult-only exposure with 5–95% confidence limits of 1.5-to 6-fold. The mean estimates for the 0- to 2-year and 2- to 15-year periods are about 35–55% larger than the 10- and 3-fold sensitivity factor adjustments recently proposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The present results are based on data for only nine chemicals, including five mutagens. Risk inferences will be altered as data become available for other chemicals. PMID:15811844

Deletion Diagnostics for Alternating Logistic Regressions

PubMed Central

Preisser, John S.; By, Kunthel; Perin, Jamie; Qaqish, Bahjat F.

2013-01-01

Deletion diagnostics are introduced for the regression analysis of clustered binary outcomes estimated with alternating logistic regressions, an implementation of generalized estimating equations (GEE) that estimates regression coefficients in a marginal mean model and in a model for the intracluster association given by the log odds ratio. The diagnostics are developed within an estimating equations framework that recasts the estimating functions for association parameters based upon conditional residuals into equivalent functions based upon marginal residuals. Extensions of earlier work on GEE diagnostics follow directly, including computational formulae for one-step deletion diagnostics that measure the influence of a cluster of observations on the estimated regression parameters and on the overall marginal mean or association model fit. The diagnostic formulae are evaluated with simulations studies and with an application concerning an assessment of factors associated with health maintenance visits in primary care medical practices. The application and the simulations demonstrate that the proposed cluster-deletion diagnostics for alternating logistic regressions are good approximations of their exact fully iterated counterparts. PMID:22777960

The age of permanent tooth emergence in children of different ethnic origin in the Auckland region: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Kanagaratnam, Sathananthan; Schluter, Philip J

2012-06-01

To report robust and contemporary estimates of permanent teeth emergence ages in children of Māori, Pasifika, Chinese, Indian and European ethnic origin in the Auckland region. A stratified, two-stage cross-sectional study. Strata were defined by school decile status. Schools defined the first-stage sampling unit, and students the second stage. Invitations and consent forms were distributed to eligible participants at school for completion at home. Participants were examined at school-based clinics or in a mobile clinic. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, AND METHODS: Children aged between 5 and 13 years enrolled within the Auckland Regional Dental Service. Schools were randomly selected and then all students within selected schools were invited to participate. Eligible participants completing a consent form had an additional tooth assessment that complemented their routine dental examination. A generalised gamma failure-time model was employed to estimate permanent tooth eruption ages. Visually based assessment of permanent tooth emergence. Overall, 3,466 children participated. Differences in median permanent tooth emergence ages were seen among ethnic groups and sexes (P < or = 0.01). Pasifika children had earlier median eruption time than sex-matched Māori children, who (in turn) were more advanced than sex-matched European children. Median eruption age occurred earlier in girls than boys for all permanent teeth. Despite known demographic, geographic and ethnic differences, estimates of permanent teeth emergence timing widely used in New Zealand are based on historical overseas populations. The presented estimates provide new standards and may be more appropriate for dental therapists and dentists when assessing permanent teeth emergence in New Zealand children.

A matlab framework for estimation of NLME models using stochastic differential equations: applications for estimation of insulin secretion rates.

PubMed

Mortensen, Stig B; Klim, Søren; Dammann, Bernd; Kristensen, Niels R; Madsen, Henrik; Overgaard, Rune V

2007-10-01

The non-linear mixed-effects model based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provides an attractive residual error model, that is able to handle serially correlated residuals typically arising from structural mis-specification of the true underlying model. The use of SDEs also opens up for new tools for model development and easily allows for tracking of unknown inputs and parameters over time. An algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of the model has earlier been proposed, and the present paper presents the first general implementation of this algorithm. The implementation is done in Matlab and also demonstrates the use of parallel computing for improved estimation times. The use of the implementation is illustrated by two examples of application which focus on the ability of the model to estimate unknown inputs facilitated by the extension to SDEs. The first application is a deconvolution-type estimation of the insulin secretion rate based on a linear two-compartment model for C-peptide measurements. In the second application the model is extended to also give an estimate of the time varying liver extraction based on both C-peptide and insulin measurements.

Your Earliest Memory May Be Earlier than You Think: Prospective Studies of Children's Dating of Earliest Childhood Memories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Qi; Peterson, Carole

2014-01-01

Theories of childhood amnesia and autobiographical memory development have been based on the assumption that the age estimates of earliest childhood memories are generally accurate, with an average age of 3.5 years among adults. It is also commonly believed that early memories will by default become inaccessible later on and this eventually…

Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2012. Current Population Reports P60-245

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeNavas-Walt, Carmen; Proctor, Bernadette D.; Smith, Jessica C.

2013-01-01

This report presents data on income, poverty, and health insurance coverage in the United States based on information collected in the 2013 and earlier Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplements (CPS ASEC) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. For most groups, the 2012 income, poverty, and health insurance estimates were not…

Long-term potential and actual evapotranspiration of two different forests on the Atlantic Coastal Plain

Treesearch

Devendra Amatya; S. Tian; Z. Dai; Ge Sun

2016-01-01

A reliable estimate of potential evapotranspiration (PET) for a forest ecosystem is critical in ecohydrologic modeling related with water supply, vegetation dynamics, and climate change and yet is a challenging task due to its complexity. Based on long-term on-site measured hydro-climatic data and predictions from earlier validated hydrologic modeling studies...

Spatial resolution in visual memory.

PubMed

Ben-Shalom, Asaf; Ganel, Tzvi

2015-04-01

Representations in visual short-term memory are considered to contain relatively elaborated information on object structure. Conversely, representations in earlier stages of the visual hierarchy are thought to be dominated by a sensory-based, feed-forward buildup of information. In four experiments, we compared the spatial resolution of different object properties between two points in time along the processing hierarchy in visual short-term memory. Subjects were asked either to estimate the distance between objects or to estimate the size of one of the objects' features under two experimental conditions, of either a short or a long delay period between the presentation of the target stimulus and the probe. When different objects were referred to, similar spatial resolution was found for the two delay periods, suggesting that initial processing stages are sensitive to object-based properties. Conversely, superior resolution was found for the short, as compared with the long, delay when features were referred to. These findings suggest that initial representations in visual memory are hybrid in that they allow fine-grained resolution for object features alongside normal visual sensitivity to the segregation between objects. The findings are also discussed in reference to the distinction made in earlier studies between visual short-term memory and iconic memory.

Consistency between satellite-derived and modeled estimates of the direct aerosol effect.

PubMed

Myhre, Gunnar

2009-07-10

In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, the direct aerosol effect is reported to have a radiative forcing estimate of -0.5 Watt per square meter (W m(-2)), offsetting the warming from CO2 by almost one-third. The uncertainty, however, ranges from -0.9 to -0.1 W m(-2), which is largely due to differences between estimates from global aerosol models and observation-based estimates, with the latter tending to have stronger (more negative) radiative forcing. This study demonstrates consistency between a global aerosol model and adjustment to an observation-based method, producing a global and annual mean radiative forcing that is weaker than -0.5 W m(-2), with a best estimate of -0.3 W m(-2). The physical explanation for the earlier discrepancy is that the relative increase in anthropogenic black carbon (absorbing aerosols) is much larger than the overall increase in the anthropogenic abundance of aerosols.

Growth status and estimated growth rate of youth football players: a community-based study.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Morano, Peter J; Barron, Mary; Miller, Susan J; Cumming, Sean P

2005-05-01

To characterize the growth status of participants in community-sponsored youth football programs and to estimate rates of growth in height and weight. Mixed-longitudinal over 2 seasons. Two communities in central Michigan. Members of 33 youth football teams in 2 central Michigan communities in the 2000 and 2001 seasons (Mid-Michigan PONY Football League). Height and weight of all participants were measured prior to each season, 327 in 2000 and 326 in 2001 (n = 653). The body mass index (kg/m) was calculated. Heights and weights did not differ from season to season and between the communities; the data were pooled and treated cross-sectionally. Increments of growth in height and weight were estimated for 166 boys with 2 measurements approximately 1 year apart to provide an estimate of growth rate. Growth status (size-attained) of youth football players relative to reference data (CDC) for American boys and estimated growth rate relative to reference values from 2 longitudinal studies of American boys. Median heights of youth football players approximate the 75th percentiles, while median weights approximate the 75th percentiles through 11 years and then drift toward the 90th percentiles of the reference. Median body mass indexes of youth football players fluctuate about the 85th percentiles of the reference. Estimated growth rates in height approximate the reference and may suggest earlier maturation, while estimated growth rates in weight exceed the reference. Youth football players are taller and especially heavier than reference values for American boys. Estimated rates of growth in height approximate medians for American boys and suggest earlier maturation. Estimated rates of growth in weight exceed those of the reference and may place many youth football players at risk for overweight/obesity, which in turn may be a risk factor for injury.

Integrated HIV testing, malaria, and diarrhea prevention campaign in Kenya: modeled health impact and cost-effectiveness.

PubMed

Kahn, James G; Muraguri, Nicholas; Harris, Brian; Lugada, Eric; Clasen, Thomas; Grabowsky, Mark; Mermin, Jonathan; Shariff, Shahnaaz

2012-01-01

Efficiently delivered interventions to reduce HIV, malaria, and diarrhea are essential to accelerating global health efforts. A 2008 community integrated prevention campaign in Western Province, Kenya, reached 47,000 individuals over 7 days, providing HIV testing and counseling, water filters, insecticide-treated bed nets, condoms, and for HIV-infected individuals cotrimoxazole prophylaxis and referral for ongoing care. We modeled the potential cost-effectiveness of a scaled-up integrated prevention campaign. We estimated averted deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) based on published data on baseline mortality and morbidity and on the protective effect of interventions, including antiretroviral therapy. We incorporate a previously estimated scaled-up campaign cost. We used published costs of medical care to estimate savings from averted illness (for all three diseases) and the added costs of initiating treatment earlier in the course of HIV disease. Per 1000 participants, projected reductions in cases of diarrhea, malaria, and HIV infection avert an estimated 16.3 deaths, 359 DALYs and $85,113 in medical care costs. Earlier care for HIV-infected persons adds an estimated 82 DALYs averted (to a total of 442), at a cost of $37,097 (reducing total averted costs to $48,015). Accounting for the estimated campaign cost of $32,000, the campaign saves an estimated $16,015 per 1000 participants. In multivariate sensitivity analyses, 83% of simulations result in net savings, and 93% in a cost per DALY averted of less than $20. A mass, rapidly implemented campaign for HIV testing, safe water, and malaria control appears economically attractive.

Stay Rates of Foreign Doctorate Recipients from U.S. Universities, 2013

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Finn, Michael G.; Pennington, Leigh Ann

This study estimates the stay rate of foreign nationals who receive doctorates in science and engineering from U.S. universities. Stay rates are estimated using tax records in a way that does not violate individual confidentiality. The 2013 stay rate for all foreign doctorate recipients, including those on permanent visas at graduation, was 70 percent for those graduating 5 years earlier, and 62 percent for those graduating 10 years earlier.

Estimation of under-reporting in epidemics using approximations.

PubMed

Gamado, Kokouvi; Streftaris, George; Zachary, Stan

2017-06-01

Under-reporting in epidemics, when it is ignored, leads to under-estimation of the infection rate and therefore of the reproduction number. In the case of stochastic models with temporal data, a usual approach for dealing with such issues is to apply data augmentation techniques through Bayesian methodology. Departing from earlier literature approaches implemented using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) techniques, we make use of approximations to obtain faster estimation with simple MCMC. Comparisons among the methods developed here, and with the RJMCMC approach, are carried out and highlight that approximation-based methodology offers useful alternative inference tools for large epidemics, with a good trade-off between time cost and accuracy.

Educational Attainment in the United States: 2009. Population Characteristics. Current Population Reports. P20-566

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryan, Camille L.; Siebens, Julie

2012-01-01

This report provides a portrait of educational attainment in the United States based on data collected in the 2009 American Community Survey (ACS) and the 2005-2009 ACS 5-year estimates. It also uses data from the Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) to the Current Population Survey (CPS) collected in 2009 and earlier, as well as monthly…

STX--Fortran-4 program for estimates of tree populations from 3P sample-tree-measurements

Treesearch

L. R. Grosenbaugh

1967-01-01

Describes how to use an improved and greatly expanded version of an earlier computer program (1964) that converts dendrometer measurements of 3P-sample trees to population values in terms of whatever units user desires. Many new options are available, including that of obtaining a product-yield and appraisal report based on regression coefficients supplied by user....

Women's experience of post-term pregnancy.

PubMed

Maimburg, Rikke Damkjaer

2016-06-01

In recent years, induction of labour has become increasingly common in many countries and has moved towards an earlier gestational age. The aim of this study was to describe how low-risk pregnant women experienced post-term pregnancy in a large university hospital in Denmark Qualitative interviews were carried out with 31 low-risk pregnant women. Pregnant women passing their estimated time of birth date experienced their last days of pregnancy as a countdown to induction, not as their last days of pregnancy. Categorisation of the women's pregnancy based on medical statistics, and a focus on medical issues caused the women to feel less involved, and contributed to them being willing to negotiate an earlier induction of labour to avoid being stigmatised as pathological patients.

Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting in the United States: Updated Estimates of Women and Girls at Risk, 2012

PubMed Central

Stupp, Paul; Okoroh, Ekwutosi; Besera, Ghenet; Goodman, David; Danel, Isabella

2016-01-01

Objectives In 1996, the U.S. Congress passed legislation making female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) illegal in the United States. CDC published the first estimates of the number of women and girls at risk for FGM/C in 1997. Since 2012, various constituencies have again raised concerns about the practice in the United States. We updated an earlier estimate of the number of women and girls in the United States who were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences. Methods We estimated the number of women and girls who were at risk for undergoing FGM/C or its consequences in 2012 by applying country-specific prevalence of FGM/C to the estimated number of women and girls living in the United States who were born in that country or who lived with a parent born in that country. Results Approximately 513,000 women and girls in the United States were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences in 2012, which was more than three times higher than the earlier estimate, based on 1990 data. The increase in the number of women and girls younger than 18 years of age at risk for FGM/C was more than four times that of previous estimates. Conclusion The estimated increase was wholly a result of rapid growth in the number of immigrants from FGM/C-practicing countries living in the United States and not from increases in FGM/C prevalence in those countries. Scientifically valid information regarding whether women or their daughters have actually undergone FGM/C and related information that can contribute to efforts to prevent the practice in the United States and provide needed health services to women who have undergone FGM/C are needed. PMID:26957669

Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting in the United States: Updated Estimates of Women and Girls at Risk, 2012.

PubMed

Goldberg, Howard; Stupp, Paul; Okoroh, Ekwutosi; Besera, Ghenet; Goodman, David; Danel, Isabella

2016-01-01

In 1996, the U.S. Congress passed legislation making female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) illegal in the United States. CDC published the first estimates of the number of women and girls at risk for FGM/C in 1997. Since 2012, various constituencies have again raised concerns about the practice in the United States. We updated an earlier estimate of the number of women and girls in the United States who were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences. We estimated the number of women and girls who were at risk for undergoing FGM/C or its consequences in 2012 by applying country-specific prevalence of FGM/C to the estimated number of women and girls living in the United States who were born in that country or who lived with a parent born in that country. Approximately 513,000 women and girls in the United States were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences in 2012, which was more than three times higher than the earlier estimate, based on 1990 data. The increase in the number of women and girls younger than 18 years of age at risk for FGM/C was more than four times that of previous estimates. The estimated increase was wholly a result of rapid growth in the number of immigrants from FGM/C-practicing countries living in the United States and not from increases in FGM/C prevalence in those countries. Scientifically valid information regarding whether women or their daughters have actually undergone FGM/C and related information that can contribute to efforts to prevent the practice in the United States and provide needed health services to women who have undergone FGM/C are needed.

Radiation-Induced Leukemia at Doses Relevant to Radiation Therapy: Modeling Mechanisms and Estimating Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shuryak, Igor; Sachs, Rainer K.; Hlatky, Lynn; Mark P. Little; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Brenner, David J.

2006-01-01

Because many cancer patients are diagnosed earlier and live longer than in the past, second cancers induced by radiation therapy have become a clinically significant issue. An earlier biologically based model that was designed to estimate risks of high-dose radiation induced solid cancers included initiation of stem cells to a premalignant state, inactivation of stem cells at high radiation doses, and proliferation of stem cells during cellular repopulation after inactivation. This earlier model predicted the risks of solid tumors induced by radiation therapy but overestimated the corresponding leukemia risks. Methods: To extend the model to radiation-induced leukemias, we analyzed in addition to cellular initiation, inactivation, and proliferation a repopulation mechanism specific to the hematopoietic system: long-range migration through the blood stream of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) from distant locations. Parameters for the model were derived from HSC biologic data in the literature and from leukemia risks among atomic bomb survivors v^ ho were subjected to much lower radiation doses. Results: Proliferating HSCs that migrate from sites distant from the high-dose region include few preleukemic HSCs, thus decreasing the high-dose leukemia risk. The extended model for leukemia provides risk estimates that are consistent with epidemiologic data for leukemia risk associated with radiation therapy over a wide dose range. For example, when applied to an earlier case-control study of 110000 women undergoing radiotherapy for uterine cancer, the model predicted an excess relative risk (ERR) of 1.9 for leukemia among women who received a large inhomogeneous fractionated external beam dose to the bone marrow (mean = 14.9 Gy), consistent with the measured ERR (2.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.2 to 6.4; from 3.6 cases expected and 11 cases observed). As a corresponding example for brachytherapy, the predicted ERR of 0.80 among women who received an inhomogeneous low-dose-rate dose to the bone marrow (mean = 2.5 Gy) was consistent with the measured ERR (0.62, 95% Cl =-0.2 to 1.9). Conclusions: An extended, biologically based model for leukemia that includes HSC initiation, inactivation, proliferation, and, uniquely for leukemia, long-range HSC migration predicts, %Kith reasonable accuracy, risks for radiationinduced leukemia associated with exposure to therapeutic doses of radiation.

Risk Assessment Methodology Based on the NISTIR 7628 Guidelines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Hauser, Katie R

2013-01-01

Earlier work describes computational models of critical infrastructure that allow an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the impact of loss per stakeholder resulting from security breakdowns. Here, we consider how to identify, monitor and estimate risk impact and probability for different smart grid stakeholders. Our constructive method leverages currently available standards and defined failure scenarios. We utilize the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Interagency or Internal Reports (NISTIR) 7628 as a basis to apply Cyberspace Security Econometrics system (CSES) for comparing design principles and courses of action in making security-related decisions.

Constrained signal reconstruction from wavelet transform coefficients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brislawn, C.M.

1991-12-31

A new method is introduced for reconstructing a signal from an incomplete sampling of its Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT). The algorithm yields a minimum-norm estimate satisfying a priori upper and lower bounds on the signal. The method is based on a finite-dimensional representation theory for minimum-norm estimates of bounded signals developed by R.E. Cole. Cole`s work has its origins in earlier techniques of maximum-entropy spectral estimation due to Lang and McClellan, which were adapted by Steinhardt, Goodrich and Roberts for minimum-norm spectral estimation. Cole`s extension of their work provides a representation for minimum-norm estimates of a class of generalized transformsmore » in terms of general correlation data (not just DFT`s of autocorrelation lags, as in spectral estimation). One virtue of this great generality is that it includes the inverse DWT. 20 refs.« less

Nucleotide diversity at two phytochrome loci along a latitudinal cline in Pinus sylvestris.

PubMed

García-Gil, M R; Mikkonen, M; Savolainen, O

2003-05-01

Forest tree species provide many examples of well-studied adaptive differentiation, where the search for the underlying genes might be possible. In earlier studies and in our common conditions in a greenhouse, northern populations set bud earlier than southern ones. A difference in latitude of origin of one degree corresponded to a change of 1.4 days in number of days to terminal bud set of seedlings. Earlier physiological and ecological genetics work in conifers and other plants have suggested that such variation could be governed by phytochromes. Nucleotide variation was examined at two phytochrome loci (PHYP and PHYO, homologues of the Arabidopsis thaliana PHYB and PHYA, respectively) in three populations: northern Finland, southern Finland and northern Spain. In our samples of 12-15 sequences (2980 and 1156 base pairs at the two loci) we found very low nonsynonymous variation; pi was 0.0003 and 0.0002 at PHYP and PHYO loci, respectively. There was no functional differentiation between populations at the photosensory domains of either locus. The overall silent variation was also low, only 0.0024 for the PHYP locus. The low estimates of silent variation are consistent with the estimated low synonymous substitution rates between Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies at the PHYO locus. Despite the low level of nucleotide variation, haplotypic diversity was relatively high (0.42 and 0.41 for fragments of 1156 nucleotides) at the two loci.

Can we determine whether physical limitations are more prevalent in the US than in countries with comparable life expectancy?

PubMed

Glei, Dana A; Goldman, Noreen; Ryff, Carol D; Weinstein, Maxine

2017-12-01

We evaluate the variability in estimates of self-reported physical limitations by age across four nationally representative surveys in the US. We consider its implications for determining whether, as previous literature suggests, the US estimates reveal limitations at an earlier age than in three countries with similar life expectancy: England, Taiwan, and Costa Rica. Based on cross-sectional data from seven population-based surveys, we use local mean smoothing to plot self-reported limitations by age for each of four physical tasks for each survey, stratified by sex. We find substantial variation in the estimates in the US across four nationally-representative surveys. For example, one US survey suggests that American women experience a walking limitation 15 years earlier than their Costa Rican counterparts, while another US survey implies that Americans have a 4-year advantage. Differences in mode of survey may account for higher prevalence of limitations in the one survey that used a self-administered mail-in questionnaire than in the other surveys that used in-person or telephone interviews. Yet, even among US surveys that used the same mode, there is still so much variability in estimates that we cannot conclude whether Americans have better or worse function than their counterparts in the other countries. Seemingly minor differences in question wording and response categories may account for the remaining inconsistency. If minor differences in question wording can result in such extensive variation in the estimates within a given population, then lack of comparability is likely to be an even greater problem when examining results across countries that do not share the same language or culture. Despite the potential utility of self-reported physical function within a survey sample, our findings imply that absolute estimates of population-level prevalence of self-reported physical limitations are unlikely to be strictly comparable across countries-or even across surveys within the same population.

New estimates of hardwood lumber exports to Europe and Asia

Treesearch

William G. Luppold; R. Edward Thomas; R. Edward Thomas

1991-01-01

Explains how earlier estimates of hardwood-lumber exports were in error, discusses the procedures used to develop a new set of hardwood-lumber export estimates, and presents a detailed set of new hardwood-lumber export estimates for European and Asian markets.

Public Relations: Ketchum brands new product with innovative PR strategy.

PubMed

2006-01-01

Novartis Pharmaceuticals tapped publis relations (PR) giant Ketchum earlier this year to spearhead a marketing campaign that would make its new U.S. Food and Drug Administration-approved prescription-based medication, Enablex, stand out among the crowd in over active bladder (OAB) treatment. OAB is a disorder that affects an estimated 33 million Americans making this treatment highly in demand with consumers and highly competitive with other pharmaceutical companies.

Estimating the Entropy of Binary Time Series: Methodology, Some Theory and a Simulation Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Yun; Kontoyiannis, Ioannis; Bienenstock, Elie

2008-06-01

Partly motivated by entropy-estimation problems in neuroscience, we present a detailed and extensive comparison between some of the most popular and effective entropy estimation methods used in practice: The plug-in method, four different estimators based on the Lempel-Ziv (LZ) family of data compression algorithms, an estimator based on the Context-Tree Weighting (CTW) method, and the renewal entropy estimator. METHODOLOGY: Three new entropy estimators are introduced; two new LZ-based estimators, and the “renewal entropy estimator,” which is tailored to data generated by a binary renewal process. For two of the four LZ-based estimators, a bootstrap procedure is described for evaluating their standard error, and a practical rule of thumb is heuristically derived for selecting the values of their parameters in practice. THEORY: We prove that, unlike their earlier versions, the two new LZ-based estimators are universally consistent, that is, they converge to the entropy rate for every finite-valued, stationary and ergodic process. An effective method is derived for the accurate approximation of the entropy rate of a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM) with known distribution. Heuristic calculations are presented and approximate formulas are derived for evaluating the bias and the standard error of each estimator. SIMULATION: All estimators are applied to a wide range of data generated by numerous different processes with varying degrees of dependence and memory. The main conclusions drawn from these experiments include: (i) For all estimators considered, the main source of error is the bias. (ii) The CTW method is repeatedly and consistently seen to provide the most accurate results. (iii) The performance of the LZ-based estimators is often comparable to that of the plug-in method. (iv) The main drawback of the plug-in method is its computational inefficiency; with small word-lengths it fails to detect longer-range structure in the data, and with longer word-lengths the empirical distribution is severely undersampled, leading to large biases.

Generalizability of Evidence-Based Assessment Recommendations for Pediatric Bipolar Disorder

PubMed Central

Jenkins, Melissa M.; Youngstrom, Eric A.; Youngstrom, Jennifer Kogos; Feeny, Norah C.; Findling, Robert L.

2013-01-01

Bipolar disorder is frequently clinically diagnosed in youths who do not actually satisfy DSM-IV criteria, yet cases that would satisfy full DSM-IV criteria are often undetected clinically. Evidence-based assessment methods that incorporate Bayesian reasoning have demonstrated improved diagnostic accuracy, and consistency; however, their clinical utility is largely unexplored. The present study examines the effectiveness of promising evidence-based decision-making compared to the clinical gold standard. Participants were 562 youth, ages 5-17 and predominantly African American, drawn from a community mental health clinic. Research diagnoses combined semi-structured interview with youths’ psychiatric, developmental, and family mental health histories. Independent Bayesian estimates relied on published risk estimates from other samples discriminated bipolar diagnoses, Area Under Curve=.75, p<.00005. The Bayes and confidence ratings correlated rs =.30. Agreement about an evidence-based assessment intervention “threshold model” (wait/assess/treat) had K=.24, p<.05. No potential moderators of agreement between the Bayesian estimates and confidence ratings, including type of bipolar illness, were significant. Bayesian risk estimates were highly correlated with logistic regression estimates using optimal sample weights, r=.81, p<.0005. Clinical and Bayesian approaches agree in terms of overall concordance and deciding next clinical action, even when Bayesian predictions are based on published estimates from clinically and demographically different samples. Evidence-based assessment methods may be useful in settings that cannot routinely employ gold standard assessments, and they may help decrease rates of overdiagnosis while promoting earlier identification of true cases. PMID:22004538

Effects of participation in the WIC program on birthweight: evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children.

PubMed

Kowaleski-Jones, Lori; Duncan, Greg J

2002-05-01

This study sought to estimate the impact on birthweight of maternal participation in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). WIC estimates were based on sibling models incorporating data on children born between 1990 and 1996 to women taking part in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Fixed-effects estimates indicated that prenatal WIC participation was associated with a 0.075 unit difference (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.007, 0.157) in siblings' logged birthweight. At the 88-oz (2464-g) low-birthweight cutoff, this difference translated into an estimated impact of 6.6 oz (184.8 g). Earlier WIC impact estimates may have been biased by unmeasured characteristics affecting both program participation and birth outcomes. Our approach controlled for such biases and revealed a significant positive association between WIC participation and birthweight.

The mass of the black hole in the X-ray binary LMC X-1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abubekerov, M. K.; Antokhina, E. A.; Gostev, N. Yu.; Cherepashchuk, A. M.; Shimansky, V. V.

2016-12-01

A dynamical estimate of the mass of the black hole in the LMC X-1 binary system is obtained in the framework of a Roche model for the optical star, based on fitting of the He I 4471 Å and He II 4200 Å absorption lines assuming LTE. The mass of the black hole derived from the radial-velocity curve for the He II 4200 Å line is m x = 10.55 M ⊙, close to the value found earlier based on a model with two point bodies [1].

A New Method for Estimating the Effective Population Size from Allele Frequency Changes

PubMed Central

Pollak, Edward

1983-01-01

A new procedure is proposed for estimating the effective population size, given that information is available on changes in frequencies of the alleles at one or more independently segregating loci and the population is observed at two or more separate times. Approximate expressions are obtained for the variances of the new statistic, as well as others, also based on allele frequency changes, that have been discussed in the literature. This analysis indicates that the new statistic will generally have a smaller variance than the others. Estimates of effective population sizes and of the standard errors of the estimates are computed for data on two fly populations that have been discussed in earlier papers. In both cases, there is evidence that the effective population size is very much smaller than the minimum census size of the population. PMID:17246147

Thermal hydraulic simulations, error estimation and parameter sensitivity studies in Drekar::CFD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Thomas Michael; Shadid, John N.; Pawlowski, Roger P.

2014-01-01

This report describes work directed towards completion of the Thermal Hydraulics Methods (THM) CFD Level 3 Milestone THM.CFD.P7.05 for the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) Nuclear Hub effort. The focus of this milestone was to demonstrate the thermal hydraulics and adjoint based error estimation and parameter sensitivity capabilities in the CFD code called Drekar::CFD. This milestone builds upon the capabilities demonstrated in three earlier milestones; THM.CFD.P4.02 [12], completed March, 31, 2012, THM.CFD.P5.01 [15] completed June 30, 2012 and THM.CFD.P5.01 [11] completed on October 31, 2012.

Radiocarbon dating of the Late Cycladic building and destruction phases at Akrotiri, Thera: New evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maniatis, Yannis

2012-01-01

Akrotiri was a flourishing prehistoric settlement on the Cycladic island of Santorini (Thera) until its life was ended by a huge volcanic eruption in the LCI period. There is much debate as to when this final destruction occurred. Based on the Egyptian historical dating this happened around 1540-1530 BC, while, based on radiocarbon and other scientific data, around 1640-1600 BC. This work is an attempt to date with radiocarbon the whole settlement's life starting from the earlier phases of occupation but focusing in the sequence of the latest events. The samples, coming from the deep shafts dug in the site for the pillars of the new shelter, are pieces of wood and charcoal from house architectural elements and other constructions, including the final earthquake victims temporary camps. Therefore, the dates obtained represent the beginning of the different cultural phases plus the latest events. The results provide novel absolute dates for the commencement of the LMC and LCI Phases at Akrotiri, giving mean ranges around 1820-1790 BC and 1775-1722 BC, respectively, while the final destruction is dated around 1622-1548 BC. These results show that the LCI phase started about 100 years earlier than estimated with the Egyptian Historical chronology while the final destruction around 60 years or less earlier.

Predictive Modeling of Risk Associated with Temperature Extremes over Continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravtsov, S.; Roebber, P.; Brazauskas, V.

2016-12-01

We build an extremely statistically accurate, essentially bias-free empirical emulator of atmospheric surface temperature and apply it for meteorological risk assessment over the domain of continental US. The resulting prediction scheme achieves an order-of-magnitude or larger gain of numerical efficiency compared with the schemes based on high-resolution dynamical atmospheric models, leading to unprecedented accuracy of the estimated risk distributions. The empirical model construction methodology is based on our earlier work, but is further modified to account for the influence of large-scale, global climate change on regional US weather and climate. The resulting estimates of the time-dependent, spatially extended probability of temperature extremes over the simulation period can be used as a risk management tool by insurance companies and regulatory governmental agencies.

Consumer price sensitivity in Dutch health insurance.

PubMed

van Dijk, Machiel; Pomp, Marc; Douven, Rudy; Laske-Aldershof, Trea; Schut, Erik; de Boer, Willem; de Boo, Anne

2008-12-01

To estimate the price sensitivity of consumer choice of health insurance firm. Using paneldata of the flows of insured between pairs of Dutch sickness funds during the period 1993-2002, we estimate the sensitivity of these flows to differences in insurance premium. The price elasticity of residual demand for health insurance was low during the period 1993-2002, confirming earlier findings based on annual changes in market share. We find small but significant elasticities for basic insurance but insignificant elasticities for supplementary insurance. Young enrollees are more price sensitive than older enrollees. Competition was weak in the market for health insurance during the period under study. For the market-based reforms that are currently under way, this implies that measures to promote competition in the health insurance industry may be needed.

Optimal Window and Lattice in Gabor Transform. Application to Audio Analysis.

PubMed

Lachambre, Helene; Ricaud, Benjamin; Stempfel, Guillaume; Torrésani, Bruno; Wiesmeyr, Christoph; Onchis-Moaca, Darian

2015-01-01

This article deals with the use of optimal lattice and optimal window in Discrete Gabor Transform computation. In the case of a generalized Gaussian window, extending earlier contributions, we introduce an additional local window adaptation technique for non-stationary signals. We illustrate our approach and the earlier one by addressing three time-frequency analysis problems to show the improvements achieved by the use of optimal lattice and window: close frequencies distinction, frequency estimation and SNR estimation. The results are presented, when possible, with real world audio signals.

Estimating the annual risk of HIV transmission within HIV sero-discordant couples in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Awad, Susanne F; Chemaitelly, Hiam; Abu-Raddad, Laith J

2018-01-01

To estimate the annual risk of HIV transmission (ϕ) within HIV sero-discordant couples in 23 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), by utilizing newly available national population-based data and accounting for factors known to potentially affect this estimation. We used a recently developed pair-based mathematical model that accommodates for HIV-dynamics temporal variation, sexual risk-behavior heterogeneity, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. Estimated country-specific ϕ (in absence of ART) ranged between 4.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.9%-6.3%) and 47.4% (95% UI: 37.2%-69.0%) per person-year (ppy), with a median of 12.4%. ϕ was strongly associated with HIV prevalence, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.92, and was larger in high- versus low-HIV-prevalence countries. ϕ increased by 1.31% (95% confidence interval: 1.00%-1.55%) ppy for every 1% increase in HIV prevalence. ϕ estimates were similar to earlier estimates, and suggested considerable heterogeneity in HIV infectiousness across SSA. This heterogeneity may explain, partly, the differences in epidemic scales. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A predictive estimation method for carbon dioxide transport by data-driven modeling with a physically-based data model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Jina; Park, Eungyu; Han, Weon Shik; Kim, Kue-Young; Jun, Seong-Chun; Choung, Sungwook; Yun, Seong-Taek; Oh, Junho; Kim, Hyun-Jun

2017-11-01

In this study, a data-driven method for predicting CO2 leaks and associated concentrations from geological CO2 sequestration is developed. Several candidate models are compared based on their reproducibility and predictive capability for CO2 concentration measurements from the Environment Impact Evaluation Test (EIT) site in Korea. Based on the data mining results, a one-dimensional solution of the advective-dispersive equation for steady flow (i.e., Ogata-Banks solution) is found to be most representative for the test data, and this model is adopted as the data model for the developed method. In the validation step, the method is applied to estimate future CO2 concentrations with the reference estimation by the Ogata-Banks solution, where a part of earlier data is used as the training dataset. From the analysis, it is found that the ensemble mean of multiple estimations based on the developed method shows high prediction accuracy relative to the reference estimation. In addition, the majority of the data to be predicted are included in the proposed quantile interval, which suggests adequate representation of the uncertainty by the developed method. Therefore, the incorporation of a reasonable physically-based data model enhances the prediction capability of the data-driven model. The proposed method is not confined to estimations of CO2 concentration and may be applied to various real-time monitoring data from subsurface sites to develop automated control, management or decision-making systems.

Individual differences in rate of encoding predict estimates of visual short-term memory capacity (K).

PubMed

Jannati, Ali; McDonald, John J; Di Lollo, Vincent

2015-06-01

The capacity of visual short-term memory (VSTM) is commonly estimated by K scores obtained with a change-detection task. Contrary to common belief, K may be influenced not only by capacity but also by the rate at which stimuli are encoded into VSTM. Experiment 1 showed that, contrary to earlier conclusions, estimates of VSTM capacity obtained with a change-detection task are constrained by temporal limitations. In Experiment 2, we used change-detection and backward-masking tasks to obtain separate within-subject estimates of K and of rate of encoding, respectively. A median split based on rate of encoding revealed significantly higher K estimates for fast encoders. Moreover, a significant correlation was found between K and the estimated rate of encoding. The present findings raise the prospect that the reported relationships between K and such cognitive concepts as fluid intelligence may be mediated not only by VSTM capacity but also by rate of encoding. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009.

PubMed

Nishiura, Hiroshi; Chowell, Gerardo; Safan, Muntaser; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

2010-01-07

In many parts of the world, the exponential growth rate of infections during the initial epidemic phase has been used to make statistical inferences on the reproduction number, R, a summary measure of the transmission potential for the novel influenza A (H1N1) 2009. The growth rate at the initial stage of the epidemic in Japan led to estimates for R in the range 2.0 to 2.6, capturing the intensity of the initial outbreak among school-age children in May 2009. An updated estimate of R that takes into account the epidemic data from 29 May to 14 July is provided. An age-structured renewal process is employed to capture the age-dependent transmission dynamics, jointly estimating the reproduction number, the age-dependent susceptibility and the relative contribution of imported cases to secondary transmission. Pitfalls in estimating epidemic growth rates are identified and used for scrutinizing and re-assessing the results of our earlier estimate of R. Maximum likelihood estimates of R using the data from 29 May to 14 July ranged from 1.21 to 1.35. The next-generation matrix, based on our age-structured model, predicts that only 17.5% of the population will experience infection by the end of the first pandemic wave. Our earlier estimate of R did not fully capture the population-wide epidemic in quantifying the next-generation matrix from the estimated growth rate during the initial stage of the pandemic in Japan. In order to quantify R from the growth rate of cases, it is essential that the selected model captures the underlying transmission dynamics embedded in the data. Exploring additional epidemiological information will be useful for assessing the temporal dynamics. Although the simple concept of R is more easily grasped by the general public than that of the next-generation matrix, the matrix incorporating detailed information (e.g., age-specificity) is essential for reducing the levels of uncertainty in predictions and for assisting public health policymaking. Model-based prediction and policymaking are best described by sharing fundamental notions of heterogeneous risks of infection and death with non-experts to avoid potential confusion and/or possible misuse of modelling results.

Sources of atmospheric methane - Measurements in rice paddies and a discussion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cicerone, R. J.; Shetter, J. D.

1981-01-01

Field measurements of methane fluxes from rice paddies, fresh water lakes, and saltwater marshes have been made to infer estimates of the size of these sources of atmospheric methane. The rice-paddy measurements, the first of their kind, show that the principal means of methane escape is through the plants themselves as opposed to transport across the water-air interface via bubbles or molecular diffusion. Nitrogen-fertilized plants release much more methane than unfertilized plants but even these measured rates are only one fourth as large as those inferred earlier by Koyama (1963, 1964) and on which all global extrapolations have been based to date. Measured methane fluxes from lakes and marshes are also compared to similar earlier data and it is found that extant data and flux-measurement methods are insufficient for reliable global extrapolations.

Cuffless Blood Pressure Estimation Based on Data-Oriented Continuous Health Monitoring System

PubMed Central

Kawanaka, Haruki; Oguri, Koji

2017-01-01

Measuring blood pressure continuously helps monitor health and also prevent lifestyle related diseases to extend the expectancy of healthy life. Blood pressure, which is nowadays used for monitoring patient, is one of the most useful indexes for prevention of lifestyle related diseases such as hypertension. However, continuously monitoring the blood pressure is unrealistic because of discomfort caused by the tightening of a cuff belt. We have earlier researched the data-oriented blood pressure estimation without using a cuff. Remarkably, our blood pressure estimation method only uses a photoplethysmograph sensor. Therefore, the application is flexible for sensor locations and measuring situations. In this paper, we describe the implementation of our estimation method, the launch of a cloud system which can collect and manage blood pressure data measured by a wristwatch-type photoplethysmograph sensor, and the construction of our applications to visualize life-log data including the time-series data of blood pressure. PMID:28523074

Estimation of main diversification time-points of hantaviruses using phylogenetic analyses of complete genomes.

PubMed

Castel, Guillaume; Tordo, Noël; Plyusnin, Alexander

2017-04-02

Because of the great variability of their reservoir hosts, hantaviruses are excellent models to evaluate the dynamics of virus-host co-evolution. Intriguing questions remain about the timescale of the diversification events that influenced this evolution. In this paper we attempted to estimate the first ever timing of hantavirus diversification based on thirty five available complete genomes representing five major groups of hantaviruses and the assumption of co-speciation of hantaviruses with their respective mammal hosts. Phylogenetic analyses were used to estimate the main diversification points during hantavirus evolution in mammals while host diversification was mostly estimated from independent calibrators taken from fossil records. Our results support an earlier developed hypothesis of co-speciation of known hantaviruses with their respective mammal hosts and hence a common ancestor for all hantaviruses carried by placental mammals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Meta-analysis in evidence-based healthcare: a paradigm shift away from random effects is overdue.

PubMed

Doi, Suhail A R; Furuya-Kanamori, Luis; Thalib, Lukman; Barendregt, Jan J

2017-12-01

Each year up to 20 000 systematic reviews and meta-analyses are published whose results influence healthcare decisions, thus making the robustness and reliability of meta-analytic methods one of the world's top clinical and public health priorities. The evidence synthesis makes use of either fixed-effect or random-effects statistical methods. The fixed-effect method has largely been replaced by the random-effects method as heterogeneity of study effects led to poor error estimation. However, despite the widespread use and acceptance of the random-effects method to correct this, it too remains unsatisfactory and continues to suffer from defective error estimation, posing a serious threat to decision-making in evidence-based clinical and public health practice. We discuss here the problem with the random-effects approach and demonstrate that there exist better estimators under the fixed-effect model framework that can achieve optimal error estimation. We argue for an urgent return to the earlier framework with updates that address these problems and conclude that doing so can markedly improve the reliability of meta-analytical findings and thus decision-making in healthcare.

The role of experience in location estimation: Target distributions shift location memory biases.

PubMed

Lipinski, John; Simmering, Vanessa R; Johnson, Jeffrey S; Spencer, John P

2010-04-01

Research based on the Category Adjustment model concluded that the spatial distribution of target locations does not influence location estimation responses [Huttenlocher, J., Hedges, L., Corrigan, B., & Crawford, L. E. (2004). Spatial categories and the estimation of location. Cognition, 93, 75-97]. This conflicts with earlier results showing that location estimation is biased relative to the spatial distribution of targets [Spencer, J. P., & Hund, A. M. (2002). Prototypes and particulars: Geometric and experience-dependent spatial categories. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 131, 16-37]. Here, we resolve this controversy by using a task based on Huttenlocher et al. (Experiment 4) with minor modifications to enhance our ability to detect experience-dependent effects. Results after the first block of trials replicate the pattern reported in Huttenlocher et al. After additional experience, however, participants showed biases that significantly shifted according to the target distributions. These results are consistent with the Dynamic Field Theory, an alternative theory of spatial cognition that integrates long-term memory traces across trials relative to the perceived structure of the task space. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelbe, David; Oak Ridge National Lab.; van Aardt, Jan

Terrestrial laser scanning has demonstrated increasing potential for rapid comprehensive measurement of forest structure, especially when multiple scans are spatially registered in order to reduce the limitations of occlusion. Although marker-based registration techniques (based on retro-reflective spherical targets) are commonly used in practice, a blind marker-free approach is preferable, insofar as it supports rapid operational data acquisition. To support these efforts, we extend the pairwise registration approach of our earlier work, and develop a graph-theoretical framework to perform blind marker-free global registration of multiple point cloud data sets. Pairwise pose estimates are weighted based on their estimated error, in ordermore » to overcome pose conflict while exploiting redundant information and improving precision. The proposed approach was tested for eight diverse New England forest sites, with 25 scans collected at each site. Quantitative assessment was provided via a novel embedded confidence metric, with a mean estimated root-mean-square error of 7.2 cm and 89% of scans connected to the reference node. Lastly, this paper assesses the validity of the embedded multiview registration confidence metric and evaluates the performance of the proposed registration algorithm.« less

Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies.

PubMed

Cologne, John; Preston, Dale L; Grant, Eric J; Cullings, Harry M; Ozasa, Kotaro

2018-03-01

It was recently suggested that earlier reports on solid-cancer mortality and incidence in the Life Span Study of atomic-bomb survivors contain still-useful information about low-dose risk that should not be ignored, because longer follow-up may lead to attenuated estimates of low-dose risk due to longer time since exposure. Here it is demonstrated, through the use of all follow-up data and risk models stratified on period of follow-up (as opposed to sub-setting the data by follow-up period), that the appearance of risk attenuation over time may be the result of less-precise risk estimation-in particular, imprecise estimation of effect-modification parameters-in the earlier periods. Longer follow-up, in addition to allowing more-precise estimation of risk due to larger numbers of radiation-related cases, provides more-precise adjustment for background mortality or incidence and more-accurate assessment of risk modification by age at exposure and attained age. It is concluded that the latest follow-up data are most appropriate for inferring low-dose risk. Furthermore, if researchers are interested in effects of time since exposure, the most-recent follow-up data should be considered rather than the results of earlier reports.

Determinants and consequences of discrepancies in menstrual and ultrasonographic gestational age estimates.

PubMed

Morin, Isabelle; Morin, Lucie; Zhang, Xun; Platt, Robert W; Blondel, Béatrice; Bréart, Gérard; Usher, Robert; Kramer, Michael S

2005-02-01

To assess the association between maternal and fetal characteristics and discrepancy between last normal menstrual period and early (<20 weeks) ultrasound-based gestational age and the association between discrepancies and pregnancy outcomes. Hospital-based cohort study. Montreal, Canada. A total of 46,514 women with both menstrual- and early ultrasound-based gestational age estimates. Positive (last normal menstrual period > early ultrasound, i.e. menstrual-based gestational age is higher than early ultrasound-based gestational age, so that the expected date of delivery is earlier with the menstrual-based gestational age) discrepancies > or =+7 days, mean birthweight, low birthweight, stillbirth and in-hospital neonatal death. Multiparous mothers and those with diabetes, small stature or high pre-pregnancy body mass index were more likely to have positive discrepancies. The proportion of women with discrepancies > or =+7 days was significantly higher among chromosomally malformed and female fetuses. The mean birthweight declined with increasingly positive differences. The risk of low birthweight was significantly higher for positive differences. Associations with fetal growth measures were more plausible with early ultrasound estimates. Although most discrepancies between last normal menstrual period- and early ultrasound-based gestational age are attributable to errors in menstrual dating, our results suggest that some positive differences reflect early growth restriction.

Selected properties of GPS and Galileo-IOV receiver intersystem biases in multi-GNSS data processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paziewski, Jacek; Sieradzki, Rafał; Wielgosz, Paweł

2015-09-01

Two overlapping frequencies—L1/E1 and L5/E5a—in GPS and Galileo systems support the creation of mixed double-differences in a tightly combined relative positioning model. On the other hand, a tightly combined model makes it necessary to take into account receiver intersystem bias, which is the difference in receiver hardware delays. This bias is present in both carrier-phase and pseudorange observations. Earlier research showed that using a priori knowledge of earlier-calibrated ISB to correct GNSS observations has significant impact on ambiguity resolution and, therefore, precise positioning results. In previous research concerning ISB estimation conducted by the authors, small oscillations in phase ISB time series were detected. This paper investigates this effect present in the GPS-Galileo-IOV ISB time series. In particular, ISB short-term temporal stability and its dependence on the number of Galileo satellites used in the ISB estimation was examined. In this contribution we investigate the amplitude and frequency of the detected ISB time series oscillations as well as their potential source. The presented results are based on real observational data collected on a zero baseline with the use of different sets of GNSS receivers.

A predictive estimation method for carbon dioxide transport by data-driven modeling with a physically-based data model.

PubMed

Jeong, Jina; Park, Eungyu; Han, Weon Shik; Kim, Kue-Young; Jun, Seong-Chun; Choung, Sungwook; Yun, Seong-Taek; Oh, Junho; Kim, Hyun-Jun

2017-11-01

In this study, a data-driven method for predicting CO 2 leaks and associated concentrations from geological CO 2 sequestration is developed. Several candidate models are compared based on their reproducibility and predictive capability for CO 2 concentration measurements from the Environment Impact Evaluation Test (EIT) site in Korea. Based on the data mining results, a one-dimensional solution of the advective-dispersive equation for steady flow (i.e., Ogata-Banks solution) is found to be most representative for the test data, and this model is adopted as the data model for the developed method. In the validation step, the method is applied to estimate future CO 2 concentrations with the reference estimation by the Ogata-Banks solution, where a part of earlier data is used as the training dataset. From the analysis, it is found that the ensemble mean of multiple estimations based on the developed method shows high prediction accuracy relative to the reference estimation. In addition, the majority of the data to be predicted are included in the proposed quantile interval, which suggests adequate representation of the uncertainty by the developed method. Therefore, the incorporation of a reasonable physically-based data model enhances the prediction capability of the data-driven model. The proposed method is not confined to estimations of CO 2 concentration and may be applied to various real-time monitoring data from subsurface sites to develop automated control, management or decision-making systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Planets as background noise sources in free space optical communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Katz, J.

1986-01-01

Background noise generated by planets is the dominant noise source in most deep space direct detection optical communications systems. Earlier approximate analyses of this problem are based on simplified blackbody calculations and can yield results that may be inaccurate by up to an order of magnitude. Various other factors that need to be taken into consideration, such as the phase angle and the actual spectral dependence of the planet albedo, in order to obtain a more accurate estimate of the noise magnitude are examined.

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). An early estimate of small grains acreage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lea, R. N.; Kern, D. M. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. A major advantage of this scheme is that it needs minimal human intervention. The entire scheme, with the exception of the choice of dates, can be computerized and the results obtained in minutes. The decision to limit the number of acquisitions processed to four was made to facilitate operation on the particular computer being used. Some earlier runs on another computer system were based on as many as seven biophase-1 acquisitions.

A record of large earthquakes on the southern Hayward fault for the past 1800 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lienkaemper, J.J.; Williams, P.L.

2007-01-01

This is the second article presenting evidence of the occurrence and timing of paleoearthquakes on the southern Hayward fault as interpreted from trenches excavated within a sag pond at the Tyson's Lagoon site in Fremont, California. We use the information to estimate the mean value and aperiodicity of the fault's recurrence interval (RI): two fundamental parameters for estimation of regional seismic hazard. An earlier article documented the four most recent earthquakes, including the historic 1868 earthquake. In this article we present evidence for at least seven earlier paleoruptures since about A.D. 170. We document these events with evidence for ground rupture, such as the presence of blocky colluvium at the base of the main trace fault scarp, and by corroborating evidence such as simultaneous liquefaction or an increase in deformation immediately below event horizons. The mean RI is 170 ?? 82 yr (1??, standard deviation of the sample), aperiodicity is 0.48, and individual intervals may be expected to range from 30 to 370 yr (95.4% confidence). The mean RI is consistent with the recurrence model of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2003) (mean, 161 yr; range, 99 yr [2.5%]; 283 yr [97.5%]). We note that the mean RI for the five most recent events may have been only 138 ?? 58 yr (1??). Hypothesis tests for the shorter RI do not demonstrate that any recent acceleration has occurred compared to the earlier period or the entire 1800-yr record, principally because of inherent uncertainties of the event ages.

Drug development costs when financial risk is measured using the Fama-French three-factor model.

PubMed

Vernon, John A; Golec, Joseph H; Dimasi, Joseph A

2010-08-01

In a widely cited article, DiMasi, Hansen, and Grabowski (2003) estimate the average pre-tax cost of bringing a new molecular entity to market. Their base case estimate, excluding post-marketing studies, was $802 million (in $US 2000). Strikingly, almost half of this cost (or $399 million) is the cost of capital (COC) used to fund clinical development expenses to the point of FDA marketing approval. The authors used an 11% real COC computed using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). But the CAPM is a single factor risk model, and multi-factor risk models are the current state of the art in finance. Using the Fama-French three factor model we find that the cost of drug development to be higher than the earlier estimate. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise.

PubMed

Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Wöppelmann, Guy; Conrad, Clinton P; Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo

2017-06-06

The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm⋅y -1 Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y -1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y -1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean-Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

NASA space cancer risk model-2014: Uncertainties due to qualitative differences in biological effects of HZE particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, Francis

Uncertainties in estimating health risks from exposures to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) — comprised of protons and high-energy and charge (HZE) nuclei are an important limitation to long duration space travel. HZE nuclei produce both qualitative and quantitative differences in biological effects compared to terrestrial radiation leading to large uncertainties in predicting risks to humans. Our NASA Space Cancer Risk Model-2012 (NSCR-2012) for estimating lifetime cancer risks from space radiation included several new features compared to earlier models from the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) used at NASA. New features of NSCR-2012 included the introduction of NASA defined radiation quality factors based on track structure concepts, a Bayesian analysis of the dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factor (DDREF) and its uncertainty, and the use of a never-smoker population to represent astronauts. However, NSCR-2012 did not include estimates of the role of qualitative differences between HZE particles and low LET radiation. In this report we discuss evidence for non-targeted effects increasing cancer risks at space relevant HZE particle absorbed doses in tissue (<0.2 Gy), and for increased tumor lethality due to the propensity for higher rates of metastatic tumors from high LET radiation suggested by animal experiments. The NSCR-2014 model considers how these qualitative differences modify the overall probability distribution functions (PDF) for cancer mortality risk estimates from space radiation. Predictions of NSCR-2014 for International Space Station missions and Mars exploration will be described, and compared to those of our earlier NSCR-2012 model.

Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

PubMed Central

Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Wöppelmann, Guy; Conrad, Clinton P.; Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo

2017-01-01

The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm⋅y−1. Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y−1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y−1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean–Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. PMID:28533403

Is There a Delay in Diagnosis of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Among Preterm-Born Males?

PubMed

Soim, Aida; Smith, Michael G; Kwon, Jennifer M; Mann, Joshua R; Thomas, Shiny; Ciafaloni, Emma

2018-07-01

The objective of this study was to investigate whether males who were born preterm took longer to receive a Duchenne muscular dystrophy diagnosis than term males. Data for males with Duchenne muscular dystrophy identified through a population-based surveillance system were analyzed using a Kaplan-Meier estimator. The first signs and symptoms were noted at a median age of 2 years in both groups. Median age when first signs and symptoms prompted medical evaluation was 2.59 years among preterm and 4.01 years among term males. Median age at definitive diagnosis was 4.25 years and 4.92 years for preterm and term males, respectively. Neither difference was statistically significant. Preterm males tended to be seen for their initial medical evaluation earlier than term males, though they were not diagnosed significantly earlier. It may take clinicians longer after the initial evaluation of preterm males to arrive at a Duchenne muscular dystrophy diagnosis.

Rey's Auditory Verbal Learning Test scores can be predicted from whole brain MRI in Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Moradi, Elaheh; Hallikainen, Ilona; Hänninen, Tuomo; Tohka, Jussi

2017-01-01

Rey's Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT) is a powerful neuropsychological tool for testing episodic memory, which is widely used for the cognitive assessment in dementia and pre-dementia conditions. Several studies have shown that an impairment in RAVLT scores reflect well the underlying pathology caused by Alzheimer's disease (AD), thus making RAVLT an effective early marker to detect AD in persons with memory complaints. We investigated the association between RAVLT scores (RAVLT Immediate and RAVLT Percent Forgetting) and the structural brain atrophy caused by AD. The aim was to comprehensively study to what extent the RAVLT scores are predictable based on structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data using machine learning approaches as well as to find the most important brain regions for the estimation of RAVLT scores. For this, we built a predictive model to estimate RAVLT scores from gray matter density via elastic net penalized linear regression model. The proposed approach provided highly significant cross-validated correlation between the estimated and observed RAVLT Immediate (R = 0.50) and RAVLT Percent Forgetting (R = 0.43) in a dataset consisting of 806 AD, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or healthy subjects. In addition, the selected machine learning method provided more accurate estimates of RAVLT scores than the relevance vector regression used earlier for the estimation of RAVLT based on MRI data. The top predictors were medial temporal lobe structures and amygdala for the estimation of RAVLT Immediate and angular gyrus, hippocampus and amygdala for the estimation of RAVLT Percent Forgetting. Further, the conversion of MCI subjects to AD in 3-years could be predicted based on either observed or estimated RAVLT scores with an accuracy comparable to MRI-based biomarkers.

PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF TWO-FLUID CAPILLARY PRESSURE-SATURATION AND PERMEABILITY FUNCTIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Capillary pressure and permeability functions are crucial to the quantitative description of subsurface flow and transport. Earlier work has demonstrated the feasibility of using the inverse parameter estimation approach in determining these functions if both capillary pressure ...

Judging arrival times of incoming traffic vehicles is not a prerequisite for safely crossing an intersection: Differential effects of vehicle size and type in passive judgment and active driving tasks.

PubMed

Mathieu, Julie; Bootsma, Reinoud J; Berthelon, Catherine; Montagne, Gilles

2017-02-01

Using a fixed-base driving simulator we compared the effects of the size and type of traffic vehicles (i.e., normal-sized or double-sized cars or motorcycles) approaching an intersection in two different tasks. In the perceptual judgment task, passively moving participants estimated when a traffic vehicle would reach the intersection for actual arrival times (ATs) of 1, 2, or 3s. In line with earlier findings, ATs were generally underestimated, the more so the longer the actual AT. Results revealed that vehicle size affected judgments in particular for the larger actual ATs (2 and 3s), with double-sized vehicles then being judged as arriving earlier than normal-sized vehicles. Vehicle type, on the other hand, affected judgments at the smaller actual ATs (1 and 2s), with cars then being judged as arriving earlier than motorcycles. In the behavioral task participants actively drove the simulator to cross the intersection by passing through a gap in a train of traffic. Analyses of the speed variations observed during the active intersection-crossing task revealed that the size and type of vehicles in the traffic train did not affect driving behavior in the same way as in the AT judgment task. First, effects were considerably smaller, affecting driving behavior only marginally. Second, effects were opposite to expectations based on AT judgments: driver approach speeds were smaller (rather than larger) when confronted with double-sized vehicles as compared to their normal-sized counterparts and when confronted with cars as compared to motorcycles. Finally, the temporality of the effects was different on the two tasks: vehicle size affected driver approach speed in the final stages of approach rather than early on, while vehicle type affected driver approach speed early on rather than later. Overall, we conclude that the active control of approach to the intersection is not based on successive judgments of traffic vehicle arrival times. These results thereby question the general belief that arrival time estimates are crucial for safe interaction with traffic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the use of performance reference compounds in an oasis-HLB adsorbent based passive sampler for improving water concentration estimates of polar herbicides in freshwater

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mazzella, N.; Lissalde, S.; Moreira, S.; Delmas, F.; Mazellier, P.; Huckins, J.N.

2010-01-01

Passive samplers such as the Polar Organic Chemical Integrative Sampler (POCIS) are useful tools for monitoring trace levels of polar organic chemicals in aquatic environments. The use of performance reference compounds (PRC) spiked into the POCIS adsorbent for in situ calibration may improve the semiquantitative nature of water concentration estimates based on this type of sampler. In this work, deuterium labeled atrazine-desisopropyl (DIA-d5) was chosen as PRC because of its relatively high fugacity from Oasis HLB (the POCIS adsorbent used) and our earlier evidence of its isotropic exchange. In situ calibration of POCIS spiked with DIA-d5was performed, and the resulting time-weighted average concentration estimates were compared with similar values from an automatic sampler equipped with Oasis HLB cartridges. Before PRC correction, water concentration estimates based on POCIS data sampling ratesfrom a laboratory calibration exposure were systematically lower than the reference concentrations obtained with the automatic sampler. Use of the DIA-d5 PRC data to correct POCIS sampling rates narrowed differences between corresponding values derived from the two methods. Application of PRCs for in situ calibration seems promising for improving POCIS-derived concentration estimates of polar pesticides. However, careful attention must be paid to the minimization of matrix effects when the quantification is performed by HPLC-ESI-MS/MS. ?? 2010 American Chemical Society.

Robust estimation of simulated urinary volume from camera images under bathroom illumination.

PubMed

Honda, Chizuru; Bhuiyan, Md Shoaib; Kawanaka, Haruki; Watanabe, Eiichi; Oguri, Koji

2016-08-01

General uroflowmetry method involves the risk of nosocomial infections or time and effort of the recording. Medical institutions, therefore, need to measure voided volume simply and hygienically. Multiple cylindrical model that can estimate the fluid flow rate from the photographed image using camera has been proposed in an earlier study. This study implemented a flow rate estimation by using a general-purpose camera system (Raspberry Pi Camera Module) and the multiple cylindrical model. However, large amounts of noise in extracting liquid region are generated by the variation of the illumination when performing measurements in the bathroom. So the estimation error gets very large. In other words, the specifications of the previous study's camera setup regarding the shutter type and the frame rate was too strict. In this study, we relax the specifications to achieve a flow rate estimation using a general-purpose camera. In order to determine the appropriate approximate curve, we propose a binarizing method using background subtraction at each scanning row and a curve approximation method using RANSAC. Finally, by evaluating the estimation accuracy of our experiment and by comparing it with the earlier study's results, we show the effectiveness of our proposed method for flow rate estimation.

The performance of different propensity score methods for estimating absolute effects of treatments on survival outcomes: A simulation study.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Schuster, Tibor

2016-10-01

Observational studies are increasingly being used to estimate the effect of treatments, interventions and exposures on outcomes that can occur over time. Historically, the hazard ratio, which is a relative measure of effect, has been reported. However, medical decision making is best informed when both relative and absolute measures of effect are reported. When outcomes are time-to-event in nature, the effect of treatment can also be quantified as the change in mean or median survival time due to treatment and the absolute reduction in the probability of the occurrence of an event within a specified duration of follow-up. We describe how three different propensity score methods, propensity score matching, stratification on the propensity score and inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score, can be used to estimate absolute measures of treatment effect on survival outcomes. These methods are all based on estimating marginal survival functions under treatment and lack of treatment. We then conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to compare the relative performance of these methods for estimating the absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. We found that stratification on the propensity score resulted in the greatest bias. Caliper matching on the propensity score and a method based on earlier work by Cole and Hernán tended to have the best performance for estimating absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. When the prevalence of treatment was less extreme, then inverse probability of treatment weighting-based methods tended to perform better than matching-based methods. © The Author(s) 2014.

The evaluation of clinical and cost outcomes associated with earlier initiation of insulin in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Smolen, Harry J; Murphy, Daniel R; Gahn, James C; Yu, Xueting; Curtis, Bradley H

2014-09-01

The treatment for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) follows a stepwise progression. As a treatment loses its effectiveness, it is typically replaced with a more complex and frequently more costly treatment. Eventually this progression leads to the use of basal insulin typically with concomitant treatments (e.g., metformin, a GLP-1 RA [glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist], a TZD [thiazolidinedione] or a DPP-4i [dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor]) and, ultimately, to basal-bolus insulin in some forms. As the cost of oral antidiabetics (OADs) and noninsulin injectables have approached, and in some cases exceeded, the cost of insulin, we reexamined the placement of insulin in T2DM treatment progression. Our hypothesis was that earlier use of insulin produces clinical and cost benefits due to its superior efficacy and treatment scalability at an acceptable cost when considered over a 5-year period. To (a) estimate clinical and payer cost outcomes of initiating insulin treatment for patients with T2DM earlier in their treatment progression and (b) estimate clinical and payer cost outcomes resulting from delays in escalating treatment for T2DM when indicated by patient hemoglobin A1c levels. We developed a Monte Carlo microsimulation model to estimate patients reaching target A1c, diabetes-related complications, mortality, and associated costs under various treatment strategies for newly diagnosed patients with T2DM. Treatment efficacies were modeled from results of randomized clinical trials, including the time and rate of A1c drift. A typical treatment progression was selected based on the American Diabetes Association and the European Association for the Study of Diabetes guidelines as the standard of care (SOC). Two treatment approaches were evaluated: two-stage insulin (basal plus antidiabetics followed by biphasic plus metformin) and single-stage insulin (biphasic plus metformin). For each approach, we analyzed multiple strategies. For each analysis, treatment steps were sequentially and cumulatively removed from the SOC until only the insulin steps remained. Delays in escalating treatment were evaluated by increasing the minimum time on a treatment within each strategy. The analysis time frame was 5 years. Relative to SOC, the two-stage insulin approach resulted in 0.10% to 1.79% more patients achieving target A1c (<7.0%), at incremental costs of $95 to $3,267. (The ranges are due to the different strategies within the approach.) With the single-stage approach, 0.50% to 2.63% more patients achieved the target A1c compared with SOC at an incremental cost of -$1,642 to $1,177. Major diabetes-related complications were reduced by 0.38% to 17.46% using the two-stage approach and 0.72% to 25.92% using the single-stage approach. Severe hypoglycemia increased by 17.97% to 60.43% using the two-stage approach and 6.44% to 68.87% using the single-stage approach. In the base case scenario, the minimum time on a specific treatment was 3 months. When the minimum time on each treatment was increased to 12 months (i.e., delayed), patients reaching A1c targets were reduced by 57%, complications increased by 13% to 76%, and mortality increased by 8% over 5 years when compared with the base case for the SOC. However, severe hypoglycemic events were reduced by 83%. As insulin was advanced earlier in therapy in the two-stage and single-stage approaches, patients reaching their A1c targets increased, severe hypoglycemic events increased, and diabetes-related complications and mortality decreased. Cost savings were estimated for 3 (of 4) strategies in the single-stage approach. Delays in treatment escalation substantially reduced patients reaching target A1c levels and increased the occurrence of major nonhypoglycemic diabetic complications. With the exception of substantial increases in severe hypoglycemic events, earlier use of insulin mitigates the clinical consequences of these delays.

Robust estimation of the proportion of treatment effect explained by surrogate marker information.

PubMed

Parast, Layla; McDermott, Mary M; Tian, Lu

2016-05-10

In randomized treatment studies where the primary outcome requires long follow-up of patients and/or expensive or invasive obtainment procedures, the availability of a surrogate marker that could be used to estimate the treatment effect and could potentially be observed earlier than the primary outcome would allow researchers to make conclusions regarding the treatment effect with less required follow-up time and resources. The Prentice criterion for a valid surrogate marker requires that a test for treatment effect on the surrogate marker also be a valid test for treatment effect on the primary outcome of interest. Based on this criterion, methods have been developed to define and estimate the proportion of treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained by the treatment effect on the surrogate marker. These methods aim to identify useful statistical surrogates that capture a large proportion of the treatment effect. However, current methods to estimate this proportion usually require restrictive model assumptions that may not hold in practice and thus may lead to biased estimates of this quantity. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric procedure to estimate the proportion of treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained by the treatment effect on a potential surrogate marker and extend this procedure to a setting with multiple surrogate markers. We compare our approach with previously proposed model-based approaches and propose a variance estimation procedure based on a perturbation-resampling method. Simulation studies demonstrate that the procedure performs well in finite samples and outperforms model-based procedures when the specified models are not correct. We illustrate our proposed procedure using a data set from a randomized study investigating a group-mediated cognitive behavioral intervention for peripheral artery disease participants. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of the length of central cancer registry operations on identification of subsequent cancers and on survival estimates.

PubMed

Qiao, Baozhen; Schymura, Maria J; Kahn, Amy R

2016-10-01

Population-based cancer survival analyses have traditionally been based on the first primary cancer. Recent studies have brought this practice into question, arguing that varying registry reference dates affect the ability to identify earlier cancers, resulting in selection bias. We used a theoretical approach to evaluate the extent to which the length of registry operations affects the classification of first versus subsequent cancers and consequently survival estimates. Sequence number central was used to classify tumors from the New York State Cancer Registry, diagnosed 2001-2010, as either first primaries (value=0 or 1) or subsequent primaries (≥2). A set of three sequence numbers, each based on an assumed reference year (1976, 1986 or 1996), was assigned to each tumor. Percent of subsequent cancers was evaluated by reference year, cancer site and age. 5-year relative survival estimates were compared under four different selection scenarios. The percent of cancer cases classified as subsequent primaries was 15.3%, 14.3% and 11.2% for reference years 1976, 1986 and 1996, respectively; and varied by cancer site and age. When only the first primary was included, shorter registry operation time was associated with slightly lower 5-year survival estimates. When all primary cancers were included, survival estimates decreased, with the largest decreases seen for the earliest reference year. Registry operation length affected the identification of subsequent cancers, but the overall effect of this misclassification on survival estimates was small. Survival estimates based on all primary cancers were slightly lower, but might be more comparable across registries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiview marker-free registration of forest terrestrial laser scanner data with embedded confidence metrics

DOE PAGES

Kelbe, David; Oak Ridge National Lab.; van Aardt, Jan; ...

2016-10-18

Terrestrial laser scanning has demonstrated increasing potential for rapid comprehensive measurement of forest structure, especially when multiple scans are spatially registered in order to reduce the limitations of occlusion. Although marker-based registration techniques (based on retro-reflective spherical targets) are commonly used in practice, a blind marker-free approach is preferable, insofar as it supports rapid operational data acquisition. To support these efforts, we extend the pairwise registration approach of our earlier work, and develop a graph-theoretical framework to perform blind marker-free global registration of multiple point cloud data sets. Pairwise pose estimates are weighted based on their estimated error, in ordermore » to overcome pose conflict while exploiting redundant information and improving precision. The proposed approach was tested for eight diverse New England forest sites, with 25 scans collected at each site. Quantitative assessment was provided via a novel embedded confidence metric, with a mean estimated root-mean-square error of 7.2 cm and 89% of scans connected to the reference node. Lastly, this paper assesses the validity of the embedded multiview registration confidence metric and evaluates the performance of the proposed registration algorithm.« less

Application of Avco data analysis and prediction techniques (ADAPT) to prediction of sunspot activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunter, H. E.; Amato, R. A.

1972-01-01

The results are presented of the application of Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) to derivation of new algorithms for the prediction of future sunspot activity. The ADAPT derived algorithms show a factor of 2 to 3 reduction in the expected 2-sigma errors in the estimates of the 81-day running average of the Zurich sunspot numbers. The report presents: (1) the best estimates for sunspot cycles 20 and 21, (2) a comparison of the ADAPT performance with conventional techniques, and (3) specific approaches to further reduction in the errors of estimated sunspot activity and to recovery of earlier sunspot historical data. The ADAPT programs are used both to derive regression algorithm for prediction of the entire 11-year sunspot cycle from the preceding two cycles and to derive extrapolation algorithms for extrapolating a given sunspot cycle based on any available portion of the cycle.

Iothalamate versus estimated GFR in a Hispanic-dominant pediatric renal transplant population.

PubMed

Papez, Karen E; Barletta, Gina-Marie; Hsieh, Stephanie; Joseph, Mark; Morgenstern, Bruce Z

2013-12-01

Accurate knowledge of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is essential to the practice of nephrology. Routine surveillance of GFR is most commonly executed using estimated GFR (eGFR) calculations, most often from serum creatinine measurements. However, cystatin C-based equations have demonstrated earlier sensitivity to decline in renal function. The literature regarding eGFR from cystatin C has few references that include transplant recipients. Additionally, for most of the published eGFR equations, patients of Hispanic ethnicity have not been enrolled in sufficient numbers. The applicability of several eGFR equations to the pediatric kidney transplant population at our center were compared in the context of determining whether Hispanic ethnicity was associated with equation performance. Updated Schwartz, CKiD, and Zappitelli eGFR estimation equations demonstrated the highest correlations. The authors recommend further prospective investigations to validate and identify factors contributing to these findings.

Determination of structure tilting in magnetized plasmas—Time delay estimation in two dimensions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guszejnov, Dávid; Bencze, Attila; Zoletnik, Sándor

2013-06-15

Time delay estimation (TDE) is a well-known technique to investigate poloidal flows in fusion plasmas. The present work is an extension of the earlier works of Bencze and Zoletnik [Phys. Plasmas 12, 052323 (2005)] and Tal et al.[Phys. Plasmas 18, 122304 (2011)]. From the prospective of the comparison of theory and experiment, it seems to be important to estimate the statistical properties of the TDE based on solid mathematical groundings. This paper provides analytic derivation of the variance of the TDE using a two-dimensional model for coherent turbulent structures in the plasma edge and also gives an explicit method formore » determination of the tilt angle of structures. As a demonstration, this method is then applied to the results of a quasi-2D Beam Emission Spectroscopy measurement performed at the TEXTOR tokamak.« less

How much runoff originates as snow in the western United States and what its future changes tell us?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, D.; Wrzesien, M.; Durand, M. T.; Adam, J. C.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

Snow is a vital hydrologic cycle component in the western United States. The seasonal phase of snowmelt bridges between winter-dominant precipitation and summer-dominant human and ecosystem water demand. Current estimates of the fraction of total annual runoff generated by snowmelt (f_Q,snow) are not based on defensible, systematic analyses. Here, based on hydrological model simulations, we describe a new algorithm that explicitly quantifies the contribution of snow to runoff in the Western U.S. Specifically, the algorithm tracks the fate of the snowmelt runoff in the modeled hydrological fluxes in the soil, surface water, and the atmosphere, and accounts for the exchanges among the three. The hydrological fluxes are simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model using an ensemble of ten general circulation model (GCM) outputs trained by ground observations. We conducted the tracking to the VIC modeling ensemble and reported the mean of the ten tracking results. We computed the historical f_Q,snow with the modeling estimates from 1960 to 2005, and predicted the future f_Q,snow using the modeling estimates from 2006 to 2100 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Our tracking results show that from 1960 to 2005, slightly over one-half of the total runoff in the western United States originated as snowmelt, despite only 37% of the region's total precipitation falling as snow; snowfall is more efficient than rainfall in runoff generation. Snow's importance varies physiographically: snowmelt from the mountains is responsible for over 70% of the total runoff in the West. Snowmelt-derived runoff currently makes up about 2/3 of the inflow to the region's major reservoirs; for Lake Mead and Lake Powell, which are the two largest reservoirs of the nation, snow contributes over 70% of their storage. The contribution of snowmelt to the total runoff will decrease in a warmer climate, by about 1/3 over the West by 2100. Snow will melt earlier and the snowmelt-induced peak flow will shift earlier by 1.5 to up to 4 weeks. Thus, in the context of predicted reductions and earlier shifts of the snow-induced runoff, and the fact that the region's major reservoirs were designed for the historical snow climatology, we argue that substantial impacts on water supply may occur especially in the summer season when water demand peaks.

Subjective age-of-acquisition norms for 600 Turkish words from four age groups.

PubMed

Göz, İlyas; Tekcan, Ali I; Erciyes, Aslı Aktan

2017-10-01

The main purpose of this study was to report age-based subjective age-of-acquisition (AoA) norms for 600 Turkish words. A total of 115 children, 100 young adults, 115 middle-aged adults, and 127 older adults provided AoA estimates for 600 words on a 7-point scale. The intraclass correlations suggested high reliability, and the AoA estimates were highly correlated across the four age groups. Children gave earlier AoA estimates than the three adult groups; this was true for high-frequency as well as low-frequency words. In addition to the means and standard deviations of the AoA estimates, we report word frequency, concreteness, and imageability ratings, as well as word length measures (numbers of syllables and letters), for the 600 words as supplemental materials. The present ratings represent a potentially useful database for researchers working on lexical processing as well as other aspects of cognitive processing, such as autobiographical memory.

Lucid dreaming incidence: A quality effects meta-analysis of 50years of research.

PubMed

Saunders, David T; Roe, Chris A; Smith, Graham; Clegg, Helen

2016-07-01

We report a quality effects meta-analysis on studies from the period 1966-2016 measuring either (a) lucid dreaming prevalence (one or more lucid dreams in a lifetime); (b) frequent lucid dreaming (one or more lucid dreams in a month) or both. A quality effects meta-analysis allows for the minimisation of the influence of study methodological quality on overall model estimates. Following sensitivity analysis, a heterogeneous lucid dreaming prevalence data set of 34 studies yielded a mean estimate of 55%, 95% C. I. [49%, 62%] for which moderator analysis showed no systematic bias for suspected sources of variability. A heterogeneous lucid dreaming frequency data set of 25 studies yielded a mean estimate of 23%, 95% C. I. [20%, 25%], moderator analysis revealed no suspected sources of variability. These findings are consistent with earlier estimates of lucid dreaming prevalence and frequent lucid dreaming in the population but are based on more robust evidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Scintillation-based Search for Off-pulse Radio Emission from Pulsars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravi, Kumar; Deshpande, Avinash A.

2018-05-01

We propose a new method to detect off-pulse (unpulsed and/or continuous) emission from pulsars using the intensity modulations associated with interstellar scintillation. Our technique involves obtaining the dynamic spectra, separately for on-pulse window and off-pulse region, with time and frequency resolutions to properly sample the intensity variations due to diffractive scintillation and then estimating their mutual correlation as a measure of off-pulse emission, if any. We describe and illustrate the essential details of this technique with the help of simulations, as well as real data. We also discuss the advantages of this method over earlier approaches to detect off-pulse emission. In particular, we point out how certain nonidealities inherent to measurement setups could potentially affect estimations in earlier approaches and argue that the present technique is immune to such nonidealities. We verify both of the above situations with relevant simulations. We apply this method to the observation of PSR B0329+54 at frequencies of 730 and 810 MHz made with the Green Bank Telescope and present upper limits for the off-pulse intensity at the two frequencies. We expect this technique to pave the way for extensive investigations of off-pulse emission with the help of existing dynamic spectral data on pulsars and, of course, with more sensitive long-duration data from new observations.

Mutations in GBA are associated with familial Parkinson disease susceptibility and age at onset.

PubMed

Nichols, W C; Pankratz, N; Marek, D K; Pauciulo, M W; Elsaesser, V E; Halter, C A; Rudolph, A; Wojcieszek, J; Pfeiffer, R F; Foroud, T

2009-01-27

To characterize sequence variation within the glucocerebrosidase (GBA) gene in a select subset of our sample of patients with familial Parkinson disease (PD) and then to test in our full sample whether these sequence variants increased the risk for PD and were associated with an earlier onset of disease. We performed a comprehensive study of all GBA exons in one patient with PD from each of 96 PD families, selected based on the family-specific lod scores at the GBA locus. Identified GBA variants were subsequently screened in all 1325 PD cases from 566 multiplex PD families and in 359 controls. Nine different GBA variants, five previously reported, were identified in 21 of the 96 PD cases sequenced. Screening for these variants in the full sample identified 161 variant carriers (12.2%) in 99 different PD families. An unbiased estimate of the frequency of the five previously reported GBA variants in the familial PD sample was 12.6% and in the control sample was 5.3% (odds ratio 2.6; 95% confidence interval 1.5-4.4). Presence of a GBA variant was associated with an earlier age at onset (p = 0.0001). On average, those patients carrying a GBA variant had onset with PD 6.04 years earlier than those without a GBA variant. This study suggests that GBA is a susceptibility gene for familial Parkinson disease (PD) and patients with GBA variants have an earlier age at onset than patients with PD without GBA variants.

Estimating past diameters of mixed conifer species in the central Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

K. Leroy Dolph

1981-01-01

Tree diameter outside bark at an earlier period of growth can be estimated from the linear relationship of present inside bark and outside bark diameters at breast height. This note presents equations for estimating inside bark diameters, outside bark diameters, and past outside bark diameters for each of the mixed-conifer species in the central Sierra Nevada.

Data Selection for Within-Class Covariance Estimation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-08

recognition performance. While developers have typically exploited the vast archive of speaker labeled data available from earlier NIST evaluations...utterances from a large population of speakers. Fortunately, participants in NIST evaluations have access to a vast repository of legacy data from earlier...previous NIST evaluations. Training data for the UBM and T-matrix was obtained from the NIST Switchboard 2 phases 2-5 [12] and SRE04/05/06 utterances

Accurate motion parameter estimation for colonoscopy tracking using a regression method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jianfei; Subramanian, Kalpathi R.; Yoo, Terry S.

2010-03-01

Co-located optical and virtual colonoscopy images have the potential to provide important clinical information during routine colonoscopy procedures. In our earlier work, we presented an optical flow based algorithm to compute egomotion from live colonoscopy video, permitting navigation and visualization of the corresponding patient anatomy. In the original algorithm, motion parameters were estimated using the traditional Least Sum of squares(LS) procedure which can be unstable in the context of optical flow vectors with large errors. In the improved algorithm, we use the Least Median of Squares (LMS) method, a robust regression method for motion parameter estimation. Using the LMS method, we iteratively analyze and converge toward the main distribution of the flow vectors, while disregarding outliers. We show through three experiments the improvement in tracking results obtained using the LMS method, in comparison to the LS estimator. The first experiment demonstrates better spatial accuracy in positioning the virtual camera in the sigmoid colon. The second and third experiments demonstrate the robustness of this estimator, resulting in longer tracked sequences: from 300 to 1310 in the ascending colon, and 410 to 1316 in the transverse colon.

Revealing nonergodic dynamics in living cells from a single particle trajectory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanoiselée, Yann; Grebenkov, Denis S.

2016-05-01

We propose the improved ergodicity and mixing estimators to identify nonergodic dynamics from a single particle trajectory. The estimators are based on the time-averaged characteristic function of the increments and can thus capture additional information on the process as compared to the conventional time-averaged mean-square displacement. The estimators are first investigated and validated for several models of anomalous diffusion, such as ergodic fractional Brownian motion and diffusion on percolating clusters, and nonergodic continuous-time random walks and scaled Brownian motion. The estimators are then applied to two sets of earlier published trajectories of mRNA molecules inside live Escherichia coli cells and of Kv2.1 potassium channels in the plasma membrane. These statistical tests did not reveal nonergodic features in the former set, while some trajectories of the latter set could be classified as nonergodic. Time averages along such trajectories are thus not representative and may be strongly misleading. Since the estimators do not rely on ensemble averages, the nonergodic features can be revealed separately for each trajectory, providing a more flexible and reliable analysis of single-particle tracking experiments in microbiology.

Adaptive multitaper time-frequency spectrum estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitton, James W.

1999-11-01

In earlier work, Thomson's adaptive multitaper spectrum estimation method was extended to the nonstationary case. This paper reviews the time-frequency multitaper method and the adaptive procedure, and explores some properties of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors. The variance of the adaptive estimator is used to construct an adaptive smoother, which is used to form a high resolution estimate. An F-test for detecting and removing sinusoidal components in the time-frequency spectrum is also given.

Multi-Scale Analysis of Trends in Northeastern Temperate Forest Springtime Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, M.; Melaas, E. K.; Sulla-menashe, D. J.; Friedl, M. A.

2017-12-01

The timing of spring leaf emergence is highly variable in many ecosystems, exerts first-order control growing season length, and significantly modulates seasonally-integrated photosynthesis. Numerous studies have reported trends toward earlier spring phenology in temperate forests, with some papers indicating that this trend is also leading to increased carbon uptake. At broad spatial scales, however, most of these studies have used data from coarse spatial resolution instruments such as MODIS, which does not resolve ecologically important landscape-scale patterns in phenology. In this work, we examine how long-term trends in spring phenology differ across three data sources acquired at different scales of measurements at the Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts. Specifically, we compared trends in the timing of phenology based on long-term in-situ measurements of phenology, estimates based on eddy-covariance measurements of net carbon uptake transition dates, and from two sources of satellite-based remote sensing (MODIS and Landsat) land surface phenology (LSP) data. Our analysis focused on the flux footprint surrounding the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurements (EMS) tower. Our results reveal clearly defined trends toward earlier springtime phenology in Landsat LSP and in the timing of tower-based net carbon uptake. However, we find no statistically significant trend in springtime phenology measured from MODIS LSP data products, possibly because the time series of MODIS observations is relatively short (13 years). The trend in tower-based transition data exhibited a larger negative value than the trend derived from Landsat LSP data (-0.42 and -0.28 days per year for 21 and 28 years, respectively). More importantly, these results have two key implications regarding how changes in spring phenology are impacting carbon uptake at landscape-scale. First, long-term trends in spring phenology can be quite different, depending on what data source is used to estimate the trend, and 2) the response of carbon uptake to climate change may be more sensitive than the response of land surface phenology itself.

Consistency between direct and indirect trial evidence: is direct evidence always more reliable?

PubMed

Madan, Jason; Stevenson, Matt D; Cooper, Katy L; Ades, A E; Whyte, Sophie; Akehurst, Ron

2011-01-01

To present a case study involving the reduction in incidence of febrile neutropenia (FN) after chemotherapy with granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs), illustrating difficulties that may arise when following the common preference for direct evidence over indirect evidence. Evidence of the efficacy of treatments was identified from two previous systematic reviews. We used Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate relative treatment effects based on direct evidence, indirect evidence, and both pooled together. We checked for inconsistency between direct and indirect evidence and explored the role of one specific trial using cross-validation. A subsequent review identified further studies not available at the time of the original analysis. We repeated the analyses on the enlarged evidence base. We found substantial inconsistency in the original evidence base. The median odds ratio of FN for primary pegfilgrastim versus no primary G-CSF was 0.06 (95% credible interval: 0.02-0.19) based on direct evidence, but 0.27 (95% credible interval: 0.13-0.53) based on indirect evidence (P value for consistency hypothesis 0.027). The additional trials were consistent with the earlier indirect, rather than the direct, evidence, and there was no inconsistency between direct and indirect estimates in the updated evidence. The earlier inconsistency was due to one trial comparing primary pegfilgrastim with no primary G-CSF. Predictive cross-validation showed that this study was inconsistent with the evidence as a whole and with other trials making this comparison. Both the Cochrane Handbook and the NICE Methods Guide express a preference for direct evidence. A more robust strategy, which is in line with the accepted principles of evidence synthesis, would be to combine all relevant and appropriate information, whether direct or indirect. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of a simple agent-based model of financial markets: An application to Australian stock and foreign exchange data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfarano, Simone; Lux, Thomas; Wagner, Friedrich

2006-10-01

Following Alfarano et al. [Estimation of agent-based models: the case of an asymmetric herding model, Comput. Econ. 26 (2005) 19-49; Excess volatility and herding in an artificial financial market: analytical approach and estimation, in: W. Franz, H. Ramser, M. Stadler (Eds.), Funktionsfähigkeit und Stabilität von Finanzmärkten, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, 2005, pp. 241-254], we consider a simple agent-based model of a highly stylized financial market. The model takes Kirman's ant process [A. Kirman, Epidemics of opinion and speculative bubbles in financial markets, in: M.P. Taylor (Ed.), Money and Financial Markets, Blackwell, Cambridge, 1991, pp. 354-368; A. Kirman, Ants, rationality, and recruitment, Q. J. Econ. 108 (1993) 137-156] of mimetic contagion as its starting point, but allows for asymmetry in the attractiveness of both groups. Embedding the contagion process into a standard asset-pricing framework, and identifying the abstract groups of the herding model as chartists and fundamentalist traders, a market with periodic bubbles and bursts is obtained. Taking stock of the availability of a closed-form solution for the stationary distribution of returns for this model, we can estimate its parameters via maximum likelihood. Expanding our earlier work, this paper presents pertinent estimates for the Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate and the Australian stock market index. As it turns out, our model indicates dominance of fundamentalist behavior in both the stock and foreign exchange market.

Estimating the Counterfactual

PubMed Central

Blumberg, Linda J.; Garrett, Bowen; Holahan, John

2016-01-01

Time lags in receiving data from long-standing, large federal surveys complicate real-time estimation of the coverage effects of full Affordable Care Act (ACA) implementation. Fast-turnaround household surveys fill some of the void in data on recent changes to insurance coverage, but they lack the historical data that allow analysts to account for trends that predate the ACA, economic fluctuations, and earlier public program expansions when predicting how many people would be uninsured without comprehensive health care reform. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) from 2000 to 2012 and the Health Reform Monitoring Survey (HRMS) data for 2013 and 2015, this article develops an approach to estimate the number of people who would be uninsured in the absence of the ACA and isolates the change in coverage as of March 2015 that can be attributed to the ACA. We produce counterfactual forecasts of the number of uninsured absent the ACA for 9 age-income groups and compare these estimates with 2015 estimates based on HRMS relative coverage changes applied to CPS-based population estimates. As of March 2015, we find the ACA has reduced the number of uninsured adults by 18.1 million compared with the number who would have been uninsured at that time had the law not been implemented. That decline represents a 46% reduction in the number of nonelderly adults without insurance. The approach developed here can be applied to other federal data and timely surveys to provide a range of estimates of the overall effects of reform. PMID:27076474

Paper-based and web-based intervention modeling experiments identified the same predictors of general practitioners' antibiotic-prescribing behavior.

PubMed

Treweek, Shaun; Bonetti, Debbie; Maclennan, Graeme; Barnett, Karen; Eccles, Martin P; Jones, Claire; Pitts, Nigel B; Ricketts, Ian W; Sullivan, Frank; Weal, Mark; Francis, Jill J

2014-03-01

To evaluate the robustness of the intervention modeling experiment (IME) methodology as a way of developing and testing behavioral change interventions before a full-scale trial by replicating an earlier paper-based IME. Web-based questionnaire and clinical scenario study. General practitioners across Scotland were invited to complete the questionnaire and scenarios, which were then used to identify predictors of antibiotic-prescribing behavior. These predictors were compared with the predictors identified in an earlier paper-based IME and used to develop a new intervention. Two hundred seventy general practitioners completed the questionnaires and scenarios. The constructs that predicted simulated behavior and intention were attitude, perceived behavioral control, risk perception/anticipated consequences, and self-efficacy, which match the targets identified in the earlier paper-based IME. The choice of persuasive communication as an intervention in the earlier IME was also confirmed. Additionally, a new intervention, an action plan, was developed. A web-based IME replicated the findings of an earlier paper-based IME, which provides confidence in the IME methodology. The interventions will now be evaluated in the next stage of the IME, a web-based randomized controlled trial. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the superposition principle in interference experiments.

PubMed

Sinha, Aninda; H Vijay, Aravind; Sinha, Urbasi

2015-05-14

The superposition principle is usually incorrectly applied in interference experiments. This has recently been investigated through numerics based on Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) methods as well as the Feynman path integral formalism. In the current work, we have derived an analytic formula for the Sorkin parameter which can be used to determine the deviation from the application of the principle. We have found excellent agreement between the analytic distribution and those that have been earlier estimated by numerical integration as well as resource intensive FDTD simulations. The analytic handle would be useful for comparing theory with future experiments. It is applicable both to physics based on classical wave equations as well as the non-relativistic Schrödinger equation.

Employment of Gibbs-Donnan-based concepts for interpretation of the properties of linear polyelectrolyte solutions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marinsky, J.A.; Reddy, M.M.

1991-01-01

Earlier research has shown that the acid dissociation and metal ion complexation equilibria of linear, weak-acid polyelectrolytes and their cross-linked gel analogues are similarly sensitive to the counterion concentration levels of their solutions. Gibbs-Donnan-based concepts, applicable to the gel, are equally applicable to the linear polyelectrolyte for the accommodation of this sensitivity to ionic strength. This result is presumed to indicate that the linear polyelectrolyte in solution develops counterion-concentrating regions that closely resemble the gel phase of their analogues. Advantage has been taken of this description of linear polyelectrolytes to estimate the solvent uptake by these regions. ?? 1991 American Chemical Society.

Rapid diversification of Tragopogon and ecological associates in Eurasia.

PubMed

Bell, C D; Mavrodiev, E V; Soltis, P S; Calaminus, A K; Albach, D C; Cellinese, N; Garcia-Jacas, N; Soltis, D E

2012-12-01

Tragopogon comprises approximately 150 described species distributed throughout Eurasia from Ireland and the UK to India and China with a few species in North Africa. Most of the species diversity is found in Eastern Europe to Western Asia. Previous phylogenetic analyses identified several major clades, generally corresponding to recognized taxonomic sections, although relationships both among these clades and among species within clades remain largely unresolved. These patterns are consistent with rapid diversification following the origin of Tragopogon, and this study addresses the timing and rate of diversification in Tragopogon. Using BEAST to simultaneously estimate a phylogeny and divergence times, we estimate the age of a major split and subsequent rapid divergence within Tragopogon to be ~2.6 Ma (and 1.7-5.4 Ma using various clock estimates). Based on the age estimates obtained with BEAST (HPD 1.7-5.4 Ma) for the origin of crown group Tragopogon and 200 estimated species (to accommodate a large number of cryptic species), the diversification rate of Tragopogon is approximately 0.84-2.71 species/Myr for the crown group, assuming low levels of extinction. This estimate is comparable in rate to a rapid Eurasian radiation in Dianthus (0.66-3.89 species/Myr), which occurs in the same or similar habitats. Using available data, we show that subclades of various plant taxa that occur in the same semi-arid habitats of Eurasia also represent rapid radiations occurring during roughly the same window of time (1.7-5.4 Ma), suggesting similar causal events. However, not all species-rich plant genera from the same habitats diverged at the same time, or at the same tempo. Radiations of several other clades in this same habitat (e.g. Campanula, Knautia, Scabiosa) occurred at earlier dates (45-4.28 Ma). Existing phylogenetic data and diversification estimates therefore indicate that, although some elements of these semi-arid communities radiated during the Plio-Pleistocene period, other clades sharing the same habitat appear to have diversified earlier. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2012 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Southeastern U.S.A. Continental Shelf Respiratory Rates Revisited

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheldon, Joan E.; Griffith, Peter C.; Peters Francesc; Sheldon, Wade M., Jr.; Blanton, Jackson O.; Amft, Julie; Pomeroy, Lawrence R.

2010-01-01

Respiratory rates on the U. S. southeastern continental shelf have been estimated several times by different investigators, most recently by Jiang et al. (Biogeochemistry 98:101-113, 2010) who report lower mean rates thanwere found in earlier work and attribute the differences to analytical error in all methods used in earlier studies. The differences are, instead, attributable to the differences in the geographical scope of the studies. The lower estimates of regional organic carbon flux of Jiang et al. (Biogeochemistry 98:101-113, 2010) are a consequence of their extrapolation of data from a small portion of the shelf to the entire South Atlantic Bight. This comment examines the methodologies used as well as the variability of respiratory rates in this region over space and time.

Accelerator skyshine: Tyger, tyger, burning bright

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stapleton, G.B.; O`Brien, K.; Thomas, R.H.

1992-06-01

Neutron skyshine is, in most cases, the dominant source of radiation exposure to the general public from operation of well-shielded, high-energy accelerators. To estimate this exposure, tabulated solutions of the transport of neutrons through the air are frequently used. In previous works on skyshine, these tabular data have been parameterized into simple empirical equations that are easy and fast to use but are limited to distances greater than a few hundred meters from the accelerator. Our current report has refined this earlier work by including more realistic assumptions of neutron differential energy spectrum and angular distribution. These improved calculations essentiallymore » endorse the earlier parameterizations but make possible reasonably accurate dose estimates much closer to the skyshine source than before.« less

Mass Balance of the West Antarctic Ice-Sheet from ICESat Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Robins, John; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui

2011-01-01

Mass balance estimates for 2003-2008 are derived from ICESat laser altimetry and compared with estimates for 1992-2002 derived from ERS radar altimetry. The net mass balance of 3 drainage systems (Pine Island, Thwaites/Smith, and the coast of Marie Bryd) for 2003-2008 is a loss of 100 Gt/yr, which increased from a loss of 70 Gt/yr for the earlier period. The DS including the Bindschadler and MacAyeal ice streams draining into the Ross Ice Shelf has a mass gain of 11 Gt/yr for 2003-2008, compared to an earlier loss of 70 Gt/yr. The DS including the Whillans and Kamb ice streams has a mass gain of 12 Gt/yr, including a significant thickening on the upper part of the Kamb DS, compared to a earlier gain of 6 Gt/yr (includes interpolation for a large portion of the DS). The other two DS discharging into the Ronne Ice Shelf and the northern Ellsworth Coast have a mass gain of 39 Gt/yr, compared to a gain of 4 Gt/yr for the earlier period. Overall, the increased losses of 30 Gt/yr in the Pine Island, Thwaites/Smith, and the coast of Marie Bryd DSs are exceeded by increased gains of 59 Gt/yr in the other 4 DS. Overall, the mass loss from the West Antarctic ice sheet has decreased to 38 Gt/yr from the earlier loss of 67 Gt/yr, reducing the contribution to sea level rise to 0.11 mm/yr from 0.19 mm/yr

The Age of the Surface of Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zahnle, K. J.; McKinnon, William B.; Young, Richard E. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

Impact craters on Venus appear to be uniformly and randomly scattered over a once, but no longer, geologically active planet. To first approximation, the planet shows a single surface of a single age. Here we use Monte Carlo cratering simulations to estimate the age of the surface of Venus. The simulations are based on the present populations of Earth-approaching asteroids, Jupiter-family, Halley-family, and long period comets; they use standard Schmidt-Housen crater scalings in the gravity regime; and they describe interaction with the atmosphere using a semi-analytic 'pancake' model that is calibrated to detailed numerical simulations of impactors striking Venus. The lunar and terrestrial cratering records are also simulated. Both of these records suffer from poor statistics. The Moon has few young large craters and fewer still whose ages are known, and the record is biased because small craters tend to look old and large craters tend to look young. The craters of the Earth provide the only reliable ages, but these craters are few, eroded, of uncertain diameter, and statistically incomplete. Together the three cratering records can be inverted to constrain the flux of impacting bodies, crater diameters given impact parameters, and the calibration of atmospheric interactions. The surface age of Venus that results is relatively young. Alternatively, we can use our best estimates for these three input parameters to derive a best estimate for the age of the surface of Venus. Our tentative conclusions are that comets are unimportant, that the lunar and terrestrial crater records are both subject to strong biases, that there is no strong evidence for an increasing cratering flux in recent years, and that that the nominal age of the surface of Venus is about 600 Ma, although the uncertainty is about a factor of two. The chief difference between our estimate and earlier, somewhat younger estimates is that we find that the venusian atmosphere is less permeable to impacting bodies than supposed by earlier studies. An older surface increases the likelihood that Venus is dead.

Body mass prediction from skeletal frame size in elite athletes.

PubMed

Ruff, C B

2000-12-01

Body mass can be estimated from measures of skeletal frame size (stature and bi-iliac (maximum pelvic) breadth) fairly accurately in modern human populations. However, it is not clear whether such a technique will lead to systematic biases in body mass estimation when applied to earlier hominins. Here the stature/bi-iliac method is tested, using data available for modern Olympic and Olympic-caliber athletes, with the rationale that these individuals may be more representative of the general physique and degree of physical conditioning characteristic of earlier populations. The average percent prediction error of body mass among both male and female athletes is less than 3%, with males slightly underestimated and females slightly overestimated. Among males, the ratio of shoulder to hip (biacromial/bi-iliac) breadth is correlated with prediction error, while lower limb/trunk length has only a weak inconsistent effect. In both sexes, athletes in "weight" events (e.g. , shot put, weight-lifting), which emphasize strength, are underestimated, while those in more endurance-related events (e.g., long distance running) are overestimated. It is likely that the environmental pressures facing earlier hominins would have favored more generalized physiques adapted for a combination of strength, speed, agility, and endurance. The events most closely approximating these requirements in Olympic athletes are the decathlon, pentathlon, and wrestling, all of which have average percent prediction errors of body mass of 5% or less. Thus, "morphometric" estimation of body mass from skeletal frame size appears to work reasonably well in both "normal" and highly athletic modern humans, increasing confidence that the technique will also be applicable to earlier hominins. Copyright 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Deformation-induced splitting of the isoscalar E 0 giant resonance: Skyrme random-phase-approximation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvasil, J.; Nesterenko, V. O.; Repko, A.; Kleinig, W.; Reinhard, P.-G.

2016-12-01

The deformation-induced splitting of isoscalar giant monopole resonance (ISGMR) is systematically analyzed in a wide range of masses covering medium, rare-earth, actinide, and superheavy axial deformed nuclei. The study is performed within the fully self-consistent quasiparticle random-phase-approximation method based on the Skyrme functional. Two Skyrme forces, one with a large (SV-bas) and one with a small (SkP) nuclear incompressibility, are considered. The calculations confirm earlier results that, because of the deformation-induced E 0 -E 2 coupling, the isoscalar E 0 resonance attains a double-peak structure and significant energy upshift. Our results are compared with available analytic estimations. Unlike earlier studies, we get a smaller energy difference between the lower and upper peaks and thus a stronger E 0 -E 2 coupling. This in turn results in more pumping of E 0 strength into the lower peak and more pronounced splitting of ISGMR. We also discuss widths of the peaks and their negligible correlation with deformation.

Hydroacoustic estimates of abundance and spatial distribution of pelagic prey fishes in western Lake Superior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mason, Doran M.; Johnson, Timothy B.; Harvey, Chris J.; Kitchell, James F.; Schram, Stephen T.; Bronte, Charles R.; Hoff, Michael H.; Lozano, Stephen J.; Trebitz, Anett S.; Schreiner, Donald R.; Lamon, E. Conrad; Hrabik, Thomas R.

2005-01-01

Lake herring (Coregonus artedi) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) are a valuable prey resource for the recovering lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in Lake Superior. However, prey biomass may be insufficient to support the current predator demand. In August 1997, we assessed the abundance and spatial distribution of pelagic coregonines and rainbow smelt in western Lake Superior by combining a 120 kHz split beam acoustics system with midwater trawls. Coregonines comprised the majority of the midwater trawl catches and the length distributions for trawl caught fish coincided with estimated sizes of acoustic targets. Overall mean pelagic prey fish biomass was 15.56 kg ha−1 with the greatest fish biomass occurring in the Apostle Islands region (27.98 kg ha−1), followed by the Duluth Minnesota region (20.22 kg ha−1), and with the lowest biomass occurring in the open waters of western Lake Superior (9.46 kg ha−1). Biomass estimates from hydroacoustics were typically 2–134 times greater than estimates derived from spring bottom trawl surveys. Prey fish biomass for Lake Superior is about order of magnitude less than acoustic estimates for Lakes Michigan and Ontario. Discrepancies observed between bioenergetics-based estimates of predator consumption of coregonines and earlier coregonine biomass estimates may be accounted for by our hydroacoustic estimates.

Estimating inbreeding in large, semi-isolated populations: effects of varying generation lengths and of migration.

PubMed

Pattison, J E

2007-01-01

The purpose of the study reported here was to investigate two important assumptions used in a recently reported new method of estimating inbreeding in large, relatively isolated populations over historic times. The method, based on modeling the genealogical "paradox," produces values of Pearl's coefficients, Z, a measure of inbreeding or genealogical coalescence, as a function of time. In this study, the effects on inbreeding of two important assumptions made in earlier studies, namely those of using a constant generation length and of ignoring migration, have been investigated for the population of Britain. First, by relating the median age of women at childbirth to the development level of various societies, the variation of the generation lengths for different periods in historic Britain were estimated. Values of Z for two types of varying generation lengths were then calculated and compared with the case of constant generation length. Second, the population curve for Britain used in earlier studies was modified to obtain the subpopulation at any time during the past two millennia that was descended from the pre-Roman British Celts. Values of Z for the case with migration were then calculated and compared with the case for no migration. It is shown that these two assumptions may be taken into account if and when required. Both the effect of a varying generation length and the effect of migration on Z were found to be 20-40%, when no known value of inbreeding was used, and 2-5%, when a known value of inbreeding was used.

77 FR 31612 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Extension

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-29

... burden estimate. \\3\\ The rule became effective on September 24, 2009. Full compliance was required by... media notice. Such substitute notice must include a toll-free number for the purpose of allowing a..., web posting, or media.\\9\\ \\9\\ Staff's earlier estimate also included costs associated with obtaining a...

Identifying Genetic Signatures of Natural Selection Using Pooled Population Sequencing in Picea abies

PubMed Central

Chen, Jun; Källman, Thomas; Ma, Xiao-Fei; Zaina, Giusi; Morgante, Michele; Lascoux, Martin

2016-01-01

The joint inference of selection and past demography remain a costly and demanding task. We used next generation sequencing of two pools of 48 Norway spruce mother trees, one corresponding to the Fennoscandian domain, and the other to the Alpine domain, to assess nucleotide polymorphism at 88 nuclear genes. These genes are candidate genes for phenological traits, and most belong to the photoperiod pathway. Estimates of population genetic summary statistics from the pooled data are similar to previous estimates, suggesting that pooled sequencing is reliable. The nonsynonymous SNPs tended to have both lower frequency differences and lower FST values between the two domains than silent ones. These results suggest the presence of purifying selection. The divergence between the two domains based on synonymous changes was around 5 million yr, a time similar to a recent phylogenetic estimate of 6 million yr, but much larger than earlier estimates based on isozymes. Two approaches, one of them novel and that considers both FST and difference in allele frequencies between the two domains, were used to identify SNPs potentially under diversifying selection. SNPs from around 20 genes were detected, including genes previously identified as main target for selection, such as PaPRR3 and PaGI. PMID:27172202

Identifying Genetic Signatures of Natural Selection Using Pooled Population Sequencing in Picea abies.

PubMed

Chen, Jun; Källman, Thomas; Ma, Xiao-Fei; Zaina, Giusi; Morgante, Michele; Lascoux, Martin

2016-07-07

The joint inference of selection and past demography remain a costly and demanding task. We used next generation sequencing of two pools of 48 Norway spruce mother trees, one corresponding to the Fennoscandian domain, and the other to the Alpine domain, to assess nucleotide polymorphism at 88 nuclear genes. These genes are candidate genes for phenological traits, and most belong to the photoperiod pathway. Estimates of population genetic summary statistics from the pooled data are similar to previous estimates, suggesting that pooled sequencing is reliable. The nonsynonymous SNPs tended to have both lower frequency differences and lower FST values between the two domains than silent ones. These results suggest the presence of purifying selection. The divergence between the two domains based on synonymous changes was around 5 million yr, a time similar to a recent phylogenetic estimate of 6 million yr, but much larger than earlier estimates based on isozymes. Two approaches, one of them novel and that considers both FST and difference in allele frequencies between the two domains, were used to identify SNPs potentially under diversifying selection. SNPs from around 20 genes were detected, including genes previously identified as main target for selection, such as PaPRR3 and PaGI. Copyright © 2016 Chen et al.

Bayesian Divergence-Time Estimation with Genome-Wide SNP Data of Sea Catfishes (Ariidae) Supports Miocene Closure of the Panamanian Isthmus.

PubMed

Stange, Madlen; Sánchez-Villagra, Marcelo R; Salzburger, Walter; Matschiner, Michael

2018-01-27

The closure of the Isthmus of Panama has long been considered to be one of the best defined biogeographic calibration points for molecular divergence-time estimation. However, geological and biological evidence has recently cast doubt on the presumed timing of the initial isthmus closure around 3 Ma but has instead suggested the existence of temporary land bridges as early as the Middle or Late Miocene. The biological evidence supporting these earlier land bridges was based either on only few molecular markers or on concatenation of genome-wide sequence data, an approach that is known to result in potentially misleading branch lengths and divergence times, which could compromise the reliability of this evidence. To allow divergence-time estimation with genomic data using the more appropriate multi-species coalescent model, we here develop a new method combining the SNP-based Bayesian species-tree inference of the software SNAPP with a molecular clock model that can be calibrated with fossil or biogeographic constraints. We validate our approach with simulations and use our method to reanalyze genomic data of Neotropical army ants (Dorylinae) that previously supported divergence times of Central and South American populations before the isthmus closure around 3 Ma. Our reanalysis with the multi-species coalescent model shifts all of these divergence times to ages younger than 3 Ma, suggesting that the older estimates supporting the earlier existence of temporary land bridges were artifacts resulting at least partially from the use of concatenation. We then apply our method to a new RAD-sequencing data set of Neotropical sea catfishes (Ariidae) and calibrate their species tree with extensive information from the fossil record. We identify a series of divergences between groups of Caribbean and Pacific sea catfishes around 10 Ma, indicating that processes related to the emergence of the isthmus led to vicariant speciation already in the Late Miocene, millions of years before the final isthmus closure. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

Starspots and Activity of the Flare Star GJ 1243

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savanov, I. S.; Dmitrienko, E. S.

2018-04-01

The photometric variability of the uniqueMdwarf flare star GJ 1243 (KIC 9726699) is investigated using the most complete set of observationalmaterial obtained with the Kepler Space Telescope. The analysis is based on 49 487 individual brightness measurements obtained during an interval of 1460 days (nearly four years). The periodicity of the brightness variations with the period P phot = 0.59261 ± 0.00060d is confirmed. The temperature inhomogeneities on the stellar surface reconstructed from the light curve are used to drive maps of these surface-temperature inhomogeneities (of the filling factor f). The resulting maps are used to determine the positions of active regions. Analysis of the surface-temperature maps for GJ 1243 led to the conclusion that the positions of spots on the stellar surface displayed appreciable evolution during the analyzed time interval. The maximum value for the lower limit on the differentialrotation parameter ΔΩ is 0.0022 rad/day. This more accurate estimate of ΔΩ is lower than the values presented earlier by Davenport et al. [1] (0.0058 and 0.0036 rad/day), due to the more accurate account of variations in the positions of the most active longitude in the current study. However, the differentialrotation estimate obtained in [1] using a method based on fitting the evolution of spots using twodimensional Gaussian functions essentially coincides with the new estimate presented here. The fractional area of the total spotted surface S of the star during the observing interval considered varied from 7 to 2%. The amplitude of the brightness variability of the star slowly decreased, varying in the range 1.6-0.5%. Overall, the position of GJ 1243 in spottedness-age, spottedness-rotation period, and spottedness-Rossby number diagrams agrees very well with the general character of the dependences displayed in earlier studies of M dwarfs.

Use of personalized Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) and Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trials (SMARTs) in mental health studies

PubMed Central

Liu, Ying; ZENG, Donglin; WANG, Yuanjia

2014-01-01

Summary Dynamic treatment regimens (DTRs) are sequential decision rules tailored at each point where a clinical decision is made based on each patient’s time-varying characteristics and intermediate outcomes observed at earlier points in time. The complexity, patient heterogeneity, and chronicity of mental disorders call for learning optimal DTRs to dynamically adapt treatment to an individual’s response over time. The Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMARTs) design allows for estimating causal effects of DTRs. Modern statistical tools have been developed to optimize DTRs based on personalized variables and intermediate outcomes using rich data collected from SMARTs; these statistical methods can also be used to recommend tailoring variables for designing future SMART studies. This paper introduces DTRs and SMARTs using two examples in mental health studies, discusses two machine learning methods for estimating optimal DTR from SMARTs data, and demonstrates the performance of the statistical methods using simulated data. PMID:25642116

The importance of record length in estimating the magnitude of climatic changes: an example using 175 years of lake ice-out dates in New England

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2013-01-01

Many studies have shown that lake ice-out (break-up) dates in the Northern Hemisphere are useful indicators of late winter/early spring climate change. Trends in lake ice-out dates in New England, USA, were analyzed for 25, 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, and 175 year periods ending in 2008. More than 100 years of ice-out data were available for 19 of the 28 lakes in this study. The magnitude of trends over time depends on the length of the period considered. For the recent 25-year period, there was a mix of earlier and later ice-out dates. Lake ice-outs during the last 50 years became earlier by 1.8 days/decade (median change for all lakes with adequate data). This is a much higher rate than for longer historical periods; ice-outs became earlier by 0.6 days/decade during the last 75 years, 0.4 days/ decade during the last 100 years, and 0.6 days/decade during the last 125 years. The significance of trends was assessed under the assumption of serial independence of historical ice-out dates and under the assumption of short and long term persistence. Hypolimnion dissolved oxygen (DO) levels are an important factor in lake eutrophication and coldwater fish survival. Based on historical data available at three lakes, 32 to 46 % of the interannual variability of late summer hypolimnion DO levels was related to ice-out dates; earlier ice-outs were associated with lower DO levels.

A model for the sustainable selection of building envelope assemblies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huedo, Patricia, E-mail: huedo@uji.es; Mulet, Elena, E-mail: emulet@uji.es; López-Mesa, Belinda, E-mail: belinda@unizar.es

2016-02-15

The aim of this article is to define an evaluation model for the environmental impacts of building envelopes to support planners in the early phases of materials selection. The model is intended to estimate environmental impacts for different combinations of building envelope assemblies based on scientifically recognised sustainability indicators. These indicators will increase the amount of information that existing catalogues show to support planners in the selection of building assemblies. To define the model, first the environmental indicators were selected based on the specific aims of the intended sustainability assessment. Then, a simplified LCA methodology was developed to estimate themore » impacts applicable to three types of dwellings considering different envelope assemblies, building orientations and climate zones. This methodology takes into account the manufacturing, installation, maintenance and use phases of the building. Finally, the model was validated and a matrix in Excel was created as implementation of the model. - Highlights: • Method to assess the envelope impacts based on a simplified LCA • To be used at an earlier phase than the existing methods in a simple way. • It assigns a score by means of known sustainability indicators. • It estimates data about the embodied and operating environmental impacts. • It compares the investment costs with the costs of the consumed energy.« less

Estimation of fecundability from survey data.

PubMed

Goldman, N; Westoff, C F; Paul, L E

1985-01-01

The estimation of fecundability from survey data is plagued by methodological problems such as misreporting of dates of birth and marriage and the occurrence of premarital exposure to the risk of conception. Nevertheless, estimates of fecundability from World Fertility Survey data for women married in recent years appear to be plausible for most of the surveys analyzed here and are quite consistent with estimates reported in earlier studies. The estimates presented in this article are all derived from the first interval, the interval between marriage or consensual union and the first live birth conception.

Three-dimensional Nonlinear Calculation of the 2017 North Korean Nuclear Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, J. L.; O'Brien, M.

2017-12-01

We perform a three-dimensional nonlinear calculation of the 2017 North Korean Nuclear Test including the topography of the test site. Surface waves from all six DPRK nuclear tests are remarkably similar. Linear scaling of surface wave amplitudes from an estimated yield of 4.6 kt for the 2009 event (Murphy et al, 2013) gives an estimated yield of 180 kt for the 2017 event, which is the yield used in the calculation. The depth of the calculated explosion is 730 meters below the surface and close to the peak of Mt. Mantap. Calculated surface displacements are as large as 4 meters vertical and 2 meters horizontal, but there is a node in both with minimal vertical and horizontal displacements close to the mountain peak. Earlier calculations of a 12.5 kiloton explosion at depths of 100-800 meters show a peak in surface wave amplitudes for explosions at the base of the mountain relative to both deeper and shallower sources, so the North Korean explosions have been at optimal depth for surface wave generation. This combined with tectonic stress state and a low surface wave amplitude bias at other test sites may explain the large surface wave anomaly at this test site. Cracking and nonlinear deformation are much more extensive for the 180 kt calculation than in the earlier 12.5 kiloton calculations.

Possible impacts of climate change on natural vegetation in Saxony (Germany).

PubMed

Chmielewski, Frank M; Müller, Antje; Küchler, Wilfried

2005-11-01

Recent climate changes have had distinct impacts on plant development in many parts of the world. Higher air temperatures, mainly since the end of the 1980s, have led to advanced timing of phenological phases and consequently to an extension of the general growing season. For this reason it is interesting to know how plants will respond to future climate change. In this study simple phenological models have been developed to estimate the impact of climate change on the natural vegetation in Saxony. The estimations are based on a regional climate scenario for the state of Saxony. The results indicate that changes in the timing of phenophases could continue in the future. Due to distinct temperature changes in winter and in summer, mainly the spring and summer phases will be advanced. Spring phenophases, such as leafing or flowering, show the strongest trends. Depending on the species, the average timing of these phenophases could be advanced by 3-27 days by 2050. Phenophases in autumn show relatively small changes. Thus, the annual growth period of individual trees will be further extended, mainly because of the shift of spring phases. Frequent droughts in summer and in autumn can compensate for the earlier leafing of trees, because in this case leaf colouring and leaf fall would start some weeks earlier. In such cases, the growing period would not be really extended, but shifted to the beginning of the year.

Crop identification of SAR data using digital textural analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nuesch, D. R.

1983-01-01

After preprocessing SEASAT SAR data which included slant to ground range transformation, registration to LANDSAT MSS data and appropriate filtering of the raw SAR data to minimize coherent speckle, textural features were developed based upon the spatial gray level dependence method (SGLDM) to compute entropy and inertia as textural measures. It is indicated that the consideration of texture features are very important in SAR data analysis. The SEASAT SAR data are useful for the improvement of field boundary definitions and for an earlier season estimate of corn and soybean area location than is supported by LANDSAT alone.

Stationary variational estimates for the effective response and field fluctuations in nonlinear composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponte Castañeda, Pedro

2016-11-01

This paper presents a variational method for estimating the effective constitutive response of composite materials with nonlinear constitutive behavior. The method is based on a stationary variational principle for the macroscopic potential in terms of the corresponding potential of a linear comparison composite (LCC) whose properties are the trial fields in the variational principle. When used in combination with estimates for the LCC that are exact to second order in the heterogeneity contrast, the resulting estimates for the nonlinear composite are also guaranteed to be exact to second-order in the contrast. In addition, the new method allows full optimization with respect to the properties of the LCC, leading to estimates that are fully stationary and exhibit no duality gaps. As a result, the effective response and field statistics of the nonlinear composite can be estimated directly from the appropriately optimized linear comparison composite. By way of illustration, the method is applied to a porous, isotropic, power-law material, and the results are found to compare favorably with earlier bounds and estimates. However, the basic ideas of the method are expected to work for broad classes of composites materials, whose effective response can be given appropriate variational representations, including more general elasto-plastic and soft hyperelastic composites and polycrystals.

Economic Cost and Burden of Dengue in the Philippines

PubMed Central

Edillo, Frances E.; Halasa, Yara A.; Largo, Francisco M.; Erasmo, Jonathan Neil V.; Amoin, Naomi B.; Alera, Maria Theresa P.; Yoon, In-Kyu; Alcantara, Arturo C.; Shepard, Donald S.

2015-01-01

Dengue, the world's most important mosquito-borne viral disease, is endemic in the Philippines. During 2008–2012, the country's Department of Health reported an annual average of 117,065 dengue cases, placing the country fourth in dengue burden in southeast Asia. This study estimates the country's annual number of dengue episodes and their economic cost. Our comparison of cases between active and passive surveillance in Punta Princesa, Cebu City yielded an expansion factor of 7.2, close to the predicted value (7.0) based on the country's health system. We estimated an annual average of 842,867 clinically diagnosed dengue cases, with direct medical costs (in 2012 US dollars) of $345 million ($3.26 per capita). This is 54% higher than an earlier estimate without Philippines-specific costs. Ambulatory settings treated 35% of cases (representing 10% of direct costs), whereas inpatient hospitals served 65% of cases (representing 90% of direct costs). The economic burden of dengue in the Philippines is substantial. PMID:25510723

Quantitative subsurface analysis using frequency modulated thermal wave imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subhani, S. K.; Suresh, B.; Ghali, V. S.

2018-01-01

Quantitative depth analysis of the anomaly with an enhanced depth resolution is a challenging task towards the estimation of depth of the subsurface anomaly using thermography. Frequency modulated thermal wave imaging introduced earlier provides a complete depth scanning of the object by stimulating it with a suitable band of frequencies and further analyzing the subsequent thermal response using a suitable post processing approach to resolve subsurface details. But conventional Fourier transform based methods used for post processing unscramble the frequencies with a limited frequency resolution and contribute for a finite depth resolution. Spectral zooming provided by chirp z transform facilitates enhanced frequency resolution which can further improves the depth resolution to axially explore finest subsurface features. Quantitative depth analysis with this augmented depth resolution is proposed to provide a closest estimate to the actual depth of subsurface anomaly. This manuscript experimentally validates this enhanced depth resolution using non stationary thermal wave imaging and offers an ever first and unique solution for quantitative depth estimation in frequency modulated thermal wave imaging.

Economic cost and burden of dengue in the Philippines.

PubMed

Edillo, Frances E; Halasa, Yara A; Largo, Francisco M; Erasmo, Jonathan Neil V; Amoin, Naomi B; Alera, Maria Theresa P; Yoon, In-Kyu; Alcantara, Arturo C; Shepard, Donald S

2015-02-01

Dengue, the world's most important mosquito-borne viral disease, is endemic in the Philippines. During 2008-2012, the country's Department of Health reported an annual average of 117,065 dengue cases, placing the country fourth in dengue burden in southeast Asia. This study estimates the country's annual number of dengue episodes and their economic cost. Our comparison of cases between active and passive surveillance in Punta Princesa, Cebu City yielded an expansion factor of 7.2, close to the predicted value (7.0) based on the country's health system. We estimated an annual average of 842,867 clinically diagnosed dengue cases, with direct medical costs (in 2012 US dollars) of $345 million ($3.26 per capita). This is 54% higher than an earlier estimate without Philippines-specific costs. Ambulatory settings treated 35% of cases (representing 10% of direct costs), whereas inpatient hospitals served 65% of cases (representing 90% of direct costs). The economic burden of dengue in the Philippines is substantial. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Centrifuge impact cratering experiments: Scaling laws for non-porous targets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, Robert M.

1987-01-01

A geotechnical centrifuge was used to investigate large body impacts onto planetary surfaces. At elevated gravity, it is possible to match various dimensionless similarity parameters which were shown to govern large scale impacts. Observations of crater growth and target flow fields have provided detailed and critical tests of a complete and unified scaling theory for impact cratering. Scaling estimates were determined for nonporous targets. Scaling estimates for large scale cratering in rock proposed previously by others have assumed that the crater radius is proportional to powers of the impactor energy and gravity, with no additional dependence on impact velocity. The size scaling laws determined from ongoing centrifuge experiments differ from earlier ones in three respects. First, a distinct dependence of impact velocity is recognized, even for constant impactor energy. Second, the present energy exponent for low porosity targets, like competent rock, is lower than earlier estimates. Third, the gravity exponent is recognized here as being related to both the energy and the velocity exponents.

Earlier Age at Menopause, Work and Tobacco Smoke Exposure

PubMed Central

Fleming, Lora E; Levis, Silvina; LeBlanc, William G; Dietz, Noella A; Arheart, Kristopher L; Wilkinson, James D; Clark, John; Serdar, Berrin; Davila, Evelyn P; Lee, David J

2009-01-01

Objective Earlier age at menopause onset has been associated with increased all cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality risks. Risk of earlier age at menopause associated with primary and secondary tobacco smoke exposure was assessed. Design Cross-sectional study using a nationally representative sample of US women. Methods 7596 women participants (representing an estimated 79 million US women) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III were asked: time since last menstrual period, occupation, and tobacco use (including home and workplace secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure). Blood cotinine and follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) levels were assessed. Logistic regressions for the odds of earlier age at menopause, stratified on race/ethnicity in women 25-50 years and adjusted for survey design, were controlled for age, BMI, education, tobacco smoke exposure, and occupation. Results Among 5029 US women ≥ 25 years with complete data, earlier age at menopause was found among all smokers, and among service and manufacturing industry sector workers. Among women age 25-50 years, there was an increased risk of earlier age at menopause with both primary smoking and with SHS exposure, particularly among Black women. Conclusions Primary tobacco use and SHS exposure were associated with an increased odds of earlier age at menopause in a representative sample of US women. Earlier age at menopause was found for some women worker groups with greater potential occupational SHS exposure. Thus, control of SHS exposures in the workplace may decrease the risk of mortality and morbidity associated with earlier age at menopause in US women workers. PMID:18626414

Campbell's Rule for Estimating Entropy Changes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jensen, William B.

2004-01-01

Campbell's rule for estimating entropy changes is discussed in relation to an earlier article by Norman Craig, where it was proposed that the approximate value of the entropy of reaction was related to net moles of gas consumed or generated. It was seen that the average for Campbell's data set was lower than that for Craig's data set and…

Exploration for coalbed methane gains momentum in Uinta basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gloyn, Robert W.; Sommer, Steven N.

1993-01-01

A development program is planned, and at least three other companies are exploring for coalbed methane in the surrounding area. Estimates have been revised by the Utah Geological Survey for the coalbed methane potential of the southern Uinta basin. They are 8 tcf to more than the earlier estimates of 0.8-4.6 tcf.

Risk analysis in cohort studies with heterogeneous strata. A global chi2-test for dose-response relationship, generalizing the Mantel-Haenszel procedure.

PubMed

Ahlborn, W; Tuz, H J; Uberla, K

1990-03-01

In cohort studies the Mantel-Haenszel estimator ORMH is computed from sample data and is used as a point estimator of relative risk. Test-based confidence intervals are estimated with the help of the asymptotic chi-squared distributed MH-statistic chi 2MHS. The Mantel-extension-chi-squared is used as a test statistic for a dose-response relationship. Both test statistics--the Mantel-Haenszel-chi as well as the Mantel-extension-chi--assume homogeneity of risk across strata, which is rarely present. Also an extended nonparametric statistic, proposed by Terpstra, which is based on the Mann-Whitney-statistics assumes homogeneity of risk across strata. We have earlier defined four risk measures RRkj (k = 1,2,...,4) in the population and considered their estimates and the corresponding asymptotic distributions. In order to overcome the homogeneity assumption we use the delta-method to get "test-based" confidence intervals. Because the four risk measures RRkj are presented as functions of four weights gik we give, consequently, the asymptotic variances of these risk estimators also as functions of the weights gik in a closed form. Approximations to these variances are given. For testing a dose-response relationship we propose a new class of chi 2(1)-distributed global measures Gk and the corresponding global chi 2-test. In contrast to the Mantel-extension-chi homogeneity of risk across strata must not be assumed. These global test statistics are of the Wald type for composite hypotheses.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Analysis of temperature profiles for investigating stream losses beneath ephemeral channels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, Jim; Stewart, Amy E.; Niswonger, Richard G.; Sarma, Lisa

2002-01-01

Continuous estimates of streamflow are challenging in ephemeral channels. The extremely transient nature of ephemeral streamflows results in shifting channel geometry and degradation in the calibration of streamflow stations. Earlier work suggests that analysis of streambed temperature profiles is a promising technique for estimating streamflow patterns in ephemeral channels. The present work provides a detailed examination of the basis for using heat as a tracer of stream/groundwater exchanges, followed by a description of an appropriate heat and water transport simulation code for ephemeral channels, as well as discussion of several types of temperature analysis techniques to determine streambed percolation rates. Temperature‐based percolation rates for three ephemeral stream sites are compared with available surface water estimates of channel loss for these sites. These results are combined with published results to develop conclusions regarding the accuracy of using vertical temperature profiles in estimating channel losses. Comparisons of temperature‐based streambed percolation rates with surface water‐based channel losses indicate that percolation rates represented 30% to 50% of the total channel loss. The difference is reasonable since channel losses include both vertical and nonvertical component of channel loss as well as potential evapotranspiration losses. The most significant advantage of the use of sediment‐temperature profiles is their robust and continuous nature, leading to a long‐term record of the timing and duration of channel losses and continuous estimates of streambed percolation. The primary disadvantage is that temperature profiles represent the continuous percolation rate at a single point in an ephemeral channel rather than an average seepage loss from the entire channel.

Estimating the Counterfactual: How Many Uninsured Adults Would There Be Today Without the ACA?

PubMed

Blumberg, Linda J; Garrett, Bowen; Holahan, John

2016-01-01

Time lags in receiving data from long-standing, large federal surveys complicate real-time estimation of the coverage effects of full Affordable Care Act (ACA) implementation. Fast-turnaround household surveys fill some of the void in data on recent changes to insurance coverage, but they lack the historical data that allow analysts to account for trends that predate the ACA, economic fluctuations, and earlier public program expansions when predicting how many people would be uninsured without comprehensive health care reform. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) from 2000 to 2012 and the Health Reform Monitoring Survey (HRMS) data for 2013 and 2015, this article develops an approach to estimate the number of people who would be uninsured in the absence of the ACA and isolates the change in coverage as of March 2015 that can be attributed to the ACA. We produce counterfactual forecasts of the number of uninsured absent the ACA for 9 age-income groups and compare these estimates with 2015 estimates based on HRMS relative coverage changes applied to CPS-based population estimates. As of March 2015, we find the ACA has reduced the number of uninsured adults by 18.1 million compared with the number who would have been uninsured at that time had the law not been implemented. That decline represents a 46% reduction in the number of nonelderly adults without insurance. The approach developed here can be applied to other federal data and timely surveys to provide a range of estimates of the overall effects of reform. © The Author(s) 2016.

Parameterization of clear-sky surface irradiance and its implications for estimation of aerosol direct radiative effect and aerosol optical depth

PubMed Central

Xia, Xiangao

2015-01-01

Aerosols impact clear-sky surface irradiance () through the effects of scattering and absorption. Linear or nonlinear relationships between aerosol optical depth (τa) and have been established to describe the aerosol direct radiative effect on (ADRE). However, considerable uncertainties remain associated with ADRE due to the incorrect estimation of (τa in the absence of aerosols). Based on data from the Aerosol Robotic Network, the effects of τa, water vapor content (w) and the cosine of the solar zenith angle (μ) on are thoroughly considered, leading to an effective parameterization of as a nonlinear function of these three quantities. The parameterization is proven able to estimate with a mean bias error of 0.32 W m−2, which is one order of magnitude smaller than that derived using earlier linear or nonlinear functions. Applications of this new parameterization to estimate τa from , or vice versa, show that the root-mean-square errors were 0.08 and 10.0 Wm−2, respectively. Therefore, this study establishes a straightforward method to derive from τa or estimate τa from measurements if water vapor measurements are available. PMID:26395310

Body mass estimates of hominin fossils and the evolution of human body size.

PubMed

Grabowski, Mark; Hatala, Kevin G; Jungers, William L; Richmond, Brian G

2015-08-01

Body size directly influences an animal's place in the natural world, including its energy requirements, home range size, relative brain size, locomotion, diet, life history, and behavior. Thus, an understanding of the biology of extinct organisms, including species in our own lineage, requires accurate estimates of body size. Since the last major review of hominin body size based on postcranial morphology over 20 years ago, new fossils have been discovered, species attributions have been clarified, and methods improved. Here, we present the most comprehensive and thoroughly vetted set of individual fossil hominin body mass predictions to date, and estimation equations based on a large (n = 220) sample of modern humans of known body masses. We also present species averages based exclusively on fossils with reliable taxonomic attributions, estimates of species averages by sex, and a metric for levels of sexual dimorphism. Finally, we identify individual traits that appear to be the most reliable for mass estimation for each fossil species, for use when only one measurement is available for a fossil. Our results show that many early hominins were generally smaller-bodied than previously thought, an outcome likely due to larger estimates in previous studies resulting from the use of large-bodied modern human reference samples. Current evidence indicates that modern human-like large size first appeared by at least 3-3.5 Ma in some Australopithecus afarensis individuals. Our results challenge an evolutionary model arguing that body size increased from Australopithecus to early Homo. Instead, we show that there is no reliable evidence that the body size of non-erectus early Homo differed from that of australopiths, and confirm that Homo erectus evolved larger average body size than earlier hominins. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Antiretroviral therapy needs: the effect of changing global guidelines.

PubMed

Stanecki, Karen; Daher, Juliana; Stover, John; Beusenberg, Michel; Souteyrand, Yves; García Calleja, Jesus M

2010-12-01

In 2010 the WHO issued a revision of the guidelines on antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infection in adults and adolescents. The recommendations included earlier diagnosis and treatment of HIV in the interest of a longer and healthier life. The current analysis explores the impact on the estimates of treatment needs of the new criteria for initiating ART compared with the previous guidelines. The analyses are based on the national models of HIV estimates for the years 1990-2009. These models produce time series estimates of ART treatment need and HIV-related mortality. The ART need estimates based on ART eligibility criteria promoted by the 2010 WHO guidelines were compared with the need estimates based on the 2006 WHO guidelines. With the 2010 eligibility criteria, the proportion of people living with HIV currently in need of ART is estimated to increase from 34% to 49%. Globally, the need increases from 11.4 million (10.2-12.5 million) to 16.2 million (14.8-17.1 million). Regional differences include 7.4 million (6.4-8.4 million) to 10.6 million (9.7-11.5 million) in sub-Saharan Africa, 1.6 million (1.3-1.7 million) to 2.4 million (2.1-2.5 million) in Asia and 710 000 (610 000-780 000) to 950 000 (810 000-1.0 million) in Latin America and the Caribbean. When adopting the new recommendations, countries have to adapt their planning process in order to accelerate access to life saving drugs to those in need. These recommendations have a significant impact on resource needs. In addition to improving and prolonging the lives of the infected individuals, it will have the expected benefit of reducing HIV transmission and the future HIV/AIDS burden.

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry. Part II: Evaluation of Estimates Using Independent Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Olson, William S.; Wang, Jian-Jian; Bell, Thomas L.; Smith, Eric A.; Kummerow, Christian D.

2006-01-01

Rainfall rate estimates from spaceborne microwave radiometers are generally accepted as reliable by a majority of the atmospheric science community. One of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) facility rain-rate algorithms is based upon passive microwave observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). In Part I of this series, improvements of the TMI algorithm that are required to introduce latent heating as an additional algorithm product are described. Here, estimates of surface rain rate, convective proportion, and latent heating are evaluated using independent ground-based estimates and satellite products. Instantaneous, 0.5 deg. -resolution estimates of surface rain rate over ocean from the improved TMI algorithm are well correlated with independent radar estimates (r approx. 0.88 over the Tropics), but bias reduction is the most significant improvement over earlier algorithms. The bias reduction is attributed to the greater breadth of cloud-resolving model simulations that support the improved algorithm and the more consistent and specific convective/stratiform rain separation method utilized. The bias of monthly 2.5 -resolution estimates is similarly reduced, with comparable correlations to radar estimates. Although the amount of independent latent heating data is limited, TMI-estimated latent heating profiles compare favorably with instantaneous estimates based upon dual-Doppler radar observations, and time series of surface rain-rate and heating profiles are generally consistent with those derived from rawinsonde analyses. Still, some biases in profile shape are evident, and these may be resolved with (a) additional contextual information brought to the estimation problem and/or (b) physically consistent and representative databases supporting the algorithm. A model of the random error in instantaneous 0.5 deg. -resolution rain-rate estimates appears to be consistent with the levels of error determined from TMI comparisons with collocated radar. Error model modifications for nonraining situations will be required, however. Sampling error represents only a portion of the total error in monthly 2.5 -resolution TMI estimates; the remaining error is attributed to random and systematic algorithm errors arising from the physical inconsistency and/or nonrepresentativeness of cloud-resolving-model-simulated profiles that support the algorithm.

The impact of new (orphan) drug approvals on premature mortality from rare diseases in the United States and France, 1999-2007.

PubMed

Lichtenberg, Frank R

2013-02-01

This paper investigates the impact of the introduction of new orphan drugs on premature mortality from rare diseases using longitudinal, disease-level data obtained from a number of major databases. The analysis is performed using data from two countries: the United States (during the period 1999-2006) and France (during the period 2000-2007). For both countries, we estimate models using two alternative definitions of premature mortality, several alternative criteria for inclusion in the set of rare diseases, and several values of the potential lag between new drug approvals and premature mortality reduction. Both the United States and French estimates indicate that, overall, premature mortality from rare diseases is unrelated to the cumulative number of drugs approved 0-2 years earlier but is significantly inversely related to the cumulative number of drugs approved 3-4 years earlier. This delay is not surprising, since most patients probably do not have access to a drug until several years after it has been launched. Although the estimates for the two countries are qualitatively similar, the estimated magnitudes of the US coefficients are about four times as large as the magnitudes of the French coefficients. This may be partly due to greater errors in measuring dates of drug introduction in France. Also, access to new drugs may be more restricted in France than it is in the United States. Our estimates indicate that, in the United States, potential years of life lost to rare diseases before age 65 (PYLL65) declined at an average annual rate of 3.3% and that, in the absence of lagged new drug approvals, PYLL65 would have increased at a rate of 0.9%. Since the US population aged 0-64 was increasing at the rate of 1.0% per year, this means that PYLL65 per person under 65 would have remained approximately constant. The reduction in the US growth rate of PYLL65 attributable to lagged new drug approvals was 4.2%. In France, PYLL65 declined at an average annual rate of 1.8%. The estimates imply that, in the absence of lagged new drug approvals, it would have declined at a rate of 0.6%. The reduction in the French growth rate of PYLL65 attributable to lagged new drug approvals was 1.1%. Earlier access to orphan drugs could result in earlier reductions in premature mortality from rare diseases.

Joint probability of statistical success of multiple phase III trials.

PubMed

Zhang, Jianliang; Zhang, Jenny J

2013-01-01

In drug development, after completion of phase II proof-of-concept trials, the sponsor needs to make a go/no-go decision to start expensive phase III trials. The probability of statistical success (PoSS) of the phase III trials based on data from earlier studies is an important factor in that decision-making process. Instead of statistical power, the predictive power of a phase III trial, which takes into account the uncertainty in the estimation of treatment effect from earlier studies, has been proposed to evaluate the PoSS of a single trial. However, regulatory authorities generally require statistical significance in two (or more) trials for marketing licensure. We show that the predictive statistics of two future trials are statistically correlated through use of the common observed data from earlier studies. Thus, the joint predictive power should not be evaluated as a simplistic product of the predictive powers of the individual trials. We develop the relevant formulae for the appropriate evaluation of the joint predictive power and provide numerical examples. Our methodology is further extended to the more complex phase III development scenario comprising more than two (K > 2) trials, that is, the evaluation of the PoSS of at least k₀ (k₀≤ K) trials from a program of K total trials. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Influence of gene flow on divergence dating - implications for the speciation history of Takydromus grass lizards.

PubMed

Tseng, Shu-Ping; Li, Shou-Hsien; Hsieh, Chia-Hung; Wang, Hurng-Yi; Lin, Si-Min

2014-10-01

Dating the time of divergence and understanding speciation processes are central to the study of the evolutionary history of organisms but are notoriously difficult. The difficulty is largely rooted in variations in the ancestral population size or in the genealogy variation across loci. To depict the speciation processes and divergence histories of three monophyletic Takydromus species endemic to Taiwan, we sequenced 20 nuclear loci and combined with one mitochondrial locus published in GenBank. They were analysed by a multispecies coalescent approach within a Bayesian framework. Divergence dating based on the gene tree approach showed high variation among loci, and the divergence was estimated at an earlier date than when derived by the species-tree approach. To test whether variations in the ancestral population size accounted for the majority of this variation, we conducted computer inferences using isolation-with-migration (IM) and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) frameworks. The results revealed that gene flow during the early stage of speciation was strongly favoured over the isolation model, and the initiation of the speciation process was far earlier than the dates estimated by gene- and species-based divergence dating. Due to their limited dispersal ability, it is suggested that geographical isolation may have played a major role in the divergence of these Takydromus species. Nevertheless, this study reveals a more complex situation and demonstrates that gene flow during the speciation process cannot be overlooked and may have a great impact on divergence dating. By using multilocus data and incorporating Bayesian coalescence approaches, we provide a more biologically realistic framework for delineating the divergence history of Takydromus. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

High-resolution seismic imaging of the gas and gas hydrate system at Green Canyon 955 in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haines, S. S.; Hart, P. E.; Collett, T. S.; Shedd, W. W.; Frye, M.

2015-12-01

High-resolution 2D seismic data acquired by the USGS in 2013 enable detailed characterization of the gas and gas hydrate system at lease block Green Canyon 955 (GC955) in the Gulf of Mexico, USA. Earlier studies, based on conventional industry 3D seismic data and logging-while-drilling (LWD) borehole data acquired in 2009, identified general aspects of the regional and local depositional setting along with two gas hydrate-bearing sand reservoirs and one layer containing fracture-filling gas hydrate within fine-grained sediments. These studies also highlighted a number of critical remaining questions. The 2013 high-resolution 2D data fill a significant gap in our previous understanding of the site by enabling interpretation of the complex system of faults and gas chimneys that provide conduits for gas flow and thus control the gas hydrate distribution observed in the LWD data. In addition, we have improved our understanding of the main channel/levee sand reservoir body, mapping in fine detail the levee sequences and the fault system that segments them into individual reservoirs. The 2013 data provide a rarely available high-resolution view of a levee reservoir package, with sequential levee deposits clearly imaged. Further, we can calculate the total gas hydrate resource present in the main reservoir body, refining earlier estimates. Based on the 2013 seismic data and assumptions derived from the LWD data, we estimate an in-place volume of 840 million cubic meters or 29 billion cubic feet of gas in the form of gas hydrate. Together, these interpretations provide a significantly improved understanding of the gas hydrate reservoirs and the gas migration system at GC955.

Detection, attribution, and sensitivity of trends toward earlier streamflow in the Sierra Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maurer, E.P.; Stewart, I.T.; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, P.B.; Cayan, D.

2007-01-01

Observed changes in the timing of snowmelt dominated streamflow in the western United States are often linked to anthropogenic or other external causes. We assess whether observed streamflow timing changes can be statistically attributed to external forcing, or whether they still lie within the bounds of natural (internal) variability for four large Sierra Nevada (CA) basins, at inflow points to major reservoirs. Streamflow timing is measured by "center timing" (CT), the day when half the annual flow has passed a given point. We use a physically based hydrology model driven by meteorological input from a global climate model to quantify the natural variability in CT trends. Estimated 50-year trends in CT due to natural climate variability often exceed estimated actual CT trends from 1950 to 1999. Thus, although observed trends in CT to date may be statistically significant, they cannot yet be statistically attributed to external influences on climate. We estimate that projected CT changes at the four major reservoir inflows will, with 90% confidence, exceed those from natural variability within 1-4 decades or 4-8 decades, depending on rates of future greenhouse gas emissions. To identify areas most likely to exhibit CT changes in response to rising temperatures, we calculate changes in CT under temperature increases from 1 to 5??. We find that areas with average winter temperatures between -2??C and -4??C are most likely to respond with significant CT shifts. Correspondingly, elevations from 2000 to 2800 in are most sensitive to temperature increases, with CT changes exceeding 45 days (earlier) relative to 1961-1990. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Earlier surgical intervention in congenital heart disease results in better outcome and resource utilization.

PubMed

Panni, Roheena Z; Ashfaq, Awais; Amanullah, Muhammad M

2011-12-29

Congenital heart disease (CHD) accounts for a major proportion of disease in the pediatric age group. The objective of the study was to estimate the cost of illness associated with CHD pre, intra and postoperatively; among patients referred to a tertiary care hospital in Karachi, Pakistan. This is the first study conducted to estimate the cost of managing CHD in Pakistan. A prevalence based cost of illness study design was used to estimate the cost of cardiac surgery (corrective & palliative) for congenital heart defects in children ≤ 5 years of age from June 2006 to June 2009. A total of 120 patients were enrolled after obtaining an informed consent and the data was collected using a pre-tested questionnaire. The mean age at the time of surgery in group A (1-12 mo age) was 6.08 ± 2.80 months and in group B (1-5 yrs) was 37.10 ± 19.94 months. The cost of surgical admission was found to be significantly higher in the older group, p = 0.001. The total number and cost of post-operative outpatient visits was also higher in group B, p = 0.003. Pre and post operative hospital admissions were not found to be significantly different among the two groups, p = 0.166 and 0.627, respectively. The number of complications were found to be different between the two groups (p = 0.019). Majority of these were contributed by hemorrhage and post-operative seizures. This study concluded that significant expenditure is incurred by people with CHD; with the implication that resources could be saved by earlier detection and awareness campaigns.

Polar Bear Population Status in the Southern Beaufort Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, Eric V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, Ian

2006-01-01

Polar bears depend entirely on sea ice for survival. In recent years, a warming climate has caused major changes in the Arctic sea ice environment, leading to concerns regarding the status of polar bear populations. Here we present findings from long-term studies of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) region of the U.S. and Canada, which are relevant to these concerns. We applied open population capture-recapture models to data collected from 2001 to 2006, and estimated there were 1,526 (95% CI = 1,211; 1,841) polar bears in the SBS region in 2006. The number of polar bears in this region was previously estimated to be approximately 1,800. Because precision of earlier estimates was low, our current estimate of population size and the earlier ones cannot be statistically differentiated. For the 2001-06 period, the best fitting capture-recapture model provided estimates of total apparent survival of 0.43 for cubs of the year (COYs), and 0.92 for all polar bears older than COYs. Because the survival rates for older polar bears included multiple sex and age strata, they could not be compared to previous estimates. Survival rates for COYs, however, were significantly lower than estimates derived in earlier studies (P = 0.03). The lower survival of COYs was corroborated by a comparison of the number of COYs per adult female for periods before (1967-89) and after (1990-2006) the winter of 1989-90, when warming temperatures and altered atmospheric circulation caused an abrupt change in sea ice conditions in the Arctic basin. In the latter period, there were significantly more COYs per adult female in the spring (P = 0.02), and significantly fewer COYs per adult female in the autumn (P < 0.001). Apparently, cub production was higher in the latter period, but fewer cubs survived beyond the first 6 months of life. Parallel with declining survival, skull measurements suggested that COYs captured from 1990 to 2006 were smaller than those captured before 1990. Similarly, both skull measurements and body weights suggested that adult males captured from 1990 to 2006 were smaller than those captured before 1990. The smaller stature of males was especially notable because it corresponded with a higher mean age of adult males. Male polar bears continue to grow into their teens, and if adequately nourished, the older males captured in the latter period should have been larger than those captured earlier. In western Hudson Bay, Canada, a significant decline in population size was preceded by observed declines in cub survival and physical stature. The evidence of declining recruitment and body size reported here, therefore, suggests vigilance regarding the future of polar bears in the SBS region.

Web-Based Surveillance Systems for Human, Animal, and Plant Diseases.

PubMed

Madoff, Lawrence C; Li, Annie

2014-02-01

The emergence of infectious diseases, caused by novel pathogens or the spread of existing ones to new populations and regions, represents a continuous threat to humans and other species. The early detection of emerging human, animal, and plant diseases is critical to preventing the spread of infection and protecting the health of our species and environment. Today, more than 75% of emerging infectious diseases are estimated to be zoonotic and capable of crossing species barriers and diminishing food supplies. Traditionally, surveillance of diseases has relied on a hierarchy of health professionals that can be costly to build and maintain, leading to a delay or interruption in reporting. However, Internet-based surveillance systems bring another dimension to epidemiology by utilizing technology to collect, organize, and disseminate information in a more timely manner. Partially and fully automated systems allow for earlier detection of disease outbreaks by searching for information from both formal sources (e.g., World Health Organization and government ministry reports) and informal sources (e.g., blogs, online media sources, and social networks). Web-based applications display disparate information online or disperse it through e-mail to subscribers or the general public. Web-based early warning systems, such as ProMED-mail, the Global Public Health Intelligence Network (GPHIN), and Health Map, have been able to recognize emerging infectious diseases earlier than traditional surveillance systems. These systems, which are continuing to evolve, are now widely utilized by individuals, humanitarian organizations, and government health ministries.

Sample Based Unit Liter Dose Estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

JENSEN, L.

The Tank Waste Characterization Program has taken many core samples, grab samples, and auger samples from the single-shell and double-shell tanks during the past 10 years. Consequently, the amount of sample data available has increased, both in terms of quantity of sample results and the number of tanks characterized. More and better data is available than when the current radiological and toxicological source terms used in the Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) (FDH 1999a) and the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) (FDH 1999b) were developed. The Nuclear Safety and Licensing (NS and L) organization wants to use the new datamore » to upgrade the radiological and toxicological source terms used in the BIO and FSAR. The NS and L organization requested assistance in producing a statistically based process for developing the source terms. This report describes the statistical techniques used and the assumptions made to support the development of a new radiological source term for liquid and solid wastes stored in single-shell and double-shell tanks. The results given in this report are a revision to similar results given in an earlier version of the document (Jensen and Wilmarth 1999). The main difference between the results in this document and the earlier version is that the dose conversion factors (DCF) for converting {mu}Ci/g or {mu}Ci/L to Sv/L (sieverts per liter) have changed. There are now two DCFs, one based on ICRP-68 and one based on ICW-71 (Brevick 2000).« less

Estimation of U content in coffee samples by fission-track counting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sharma, P.K.; Lal, N.; Nagpaul, K.K.

1985-06-01

Because coffee is consumed in large quantities by humans, the authors undertook the study of the uranium content of coffee as a continuation of earlier work to estimate the U content of foodstuffs. Since literature on this subject is scarce, they decided to use the well-established fission-track-counting technique to determine the U content of coffee.

Another Look at the Demand for Higher Education: Measuring the Price Sensitivity of the Decision to Apply to College.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Savoca, Elizabeth

1990-01-01

Using data from National Longitudinal Survey of the High School Class of 1972, this paper presents estimates of the price elasticity of the decision to apply to college. Calculations incorporating this price effect into earlier enrollment elasticity estimates suggest that true elasticity may be double the size reported in the literature. Includes…

Geodynamics in a Thin Shell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, S. D.; Robertson, S.

2018-05-01

At the pressure and temperature regime of Mercury's silicate interior, olivine deforms by dislocation creep (power law rheology). This allows Mercury to maintain a dynamic interior much later in time than earlier estimates using Newtonian rheology.

The polonium-210 poisoning of Mr Alexander Litvinenko

DOE PAGES

Harrison, John; Fell, Tim; Leggett, Rich; ...

2017-02-28

Mr Litvinenko died on 23rd November 2006 after having been poisoned with polonium-210 on 1st November. Measurements of the polonium-210 content of post-mortem tissue samples and samples of urine and blood showed the presence of large amounts of 210Po. Furthermore, autoradiography of hair samples showed two regions of 210Po activity, providing evidence of an earlier poisoning attempt during October 2006, resulting in absorption to blood of about one-hundredth of that estimated for 1st November. Intake by ingestion on 1st November was estimated to be around 4 GBq, assuming 10% absorption to blood, and the resulting organ doses reached estimatedmore » values that were generally in a range from about 20 Gy to over 100 Gy. In comparison with estimates of protracted alpha particle the doses required to cause irreversible organ damage support the conclusion that death was the inevitable consequence of multiple organ failure, with destruction of the haemopoietic bone marrow, as well as damage to kidneys and liver, being important contributors. If the earlier poisoning during October 2006 had not been followed by a second major intake on 1st November, it is possible that the earlier intake of around 40 MBq, with absorption of 4 MBq to blood, might have proved fatal over a prolonged period of months or years, primarily as a result of kidney damage following a dose of approaching 3 Gy.« less

The polonium-210 poisoning of Mr Alexander Litvinenko

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrison, John; Fell, Tim; Leggett, Rich

Mr Litvinenko died on 23rd November 2006 after having been poisoned with polonium-210 on 1st November. Measurements of the polonium-210 content of post-mortem tissue samples and samples of urine and blood showed the presence of large amounts of 210Po. Furthermore, autoradiography of hair samples showed two regions of 210Po activity, providing evidence of an earlier poisoning attempt during October 2006, resulting in absorption to blood of about one-hundredth of that estimated for 1st November. Intake by ingestion on 1st November was estimated to be around 4 GBq, assuming 10% absorption to blood, and the resulting organ doses reached estimatedmore » values that were generally in a range from about 20 Gy to over 100 Gy. In comparison with estimates of protracted alpha particle the doses required to cause irreversible organ damage support the conclusion that death was the inevitable consequence of multiple organ failure, with destruction of the haemopoietic bone marrow, as well as damage to kidneys and liver, being important contributors. If the earlier poisoning during October 2006 had not been followed by a second major intake on 1st November, it is possible that the earlier intake of around 40 MBq, with absorption of 4 MBq to blood, might have proved fatal over a prolonged period of months or years, primarily as a result of kidney damage following a dose of approaching 3 Gy.« less

Changes in breeding phenology of eastern Ontario frogs over four decades.

PubMed

Klaus, Samantha P; Lougheed, Stephen C

2013-04-01

Global climate change has been implicated in phenological shifts for a variety of taxa. Amphibian species in particular are sensitive to changes in their environment due to their biphasic life history and restricted reproductive requirements. Previous research has shown that not all temperate amphibian species respond similarly to the same suite of climatic or environmental cues, nor are individual species necessarily uniform in their responses across their range. We examined both the timing of spring emergence and calling phenology of eight anuran species in southeastern Ontario, Canada, using an approximately 40-year dataset of historical records of amphibian activity. Rana pipiens was the only species out of eight considered to emerge significantly earlier, by an estimated 22 days over four decades. Both R. pipiens and Bufo americanus have advanced initiation of calling over a four-decade span significantly earlier by an estimated 37.2 and 19.2 days, respectively. Rana sylvatica showed a trend toward earlier emergence by 19 days, whereas we did not detect changes in emergence phenology for the remaining five species. This significant shift in breeding behavior for two species correlates to significant regional increases in spring temperatures of an estimated 2.7-2.8°C overall over four decades. Our study suggests that local temperature increases have affected the timing of emergence and the onset of calling activity in some Ontario anuran species. Global decline or range shifts ultimately may be related to changes in reproductive behavior and timing mediated by shifting climate.

Mean size estimation yields left-side bias: Role of attention on perceptual averaging.

PubMed

Li, Kuei-An; Yeh, Su-Ling

2017-11-01

The human visual system can estimate mean size of a set of items effectively; however, little is known about whether information on each visual field contributes equally to the mean size estimation. In this study, we examined whether a left-side bias (LSB)-perceptual judgment tends to depend more heavily on left visual field's inputs-affects mean size estimation. Participants were instructed to estimate the mean size of 16 spots. In half of the trials, the mean size of the spots on the left side was larger than that on the right side (the left-larger condition) and vice versa (the right-larger condition). Our results illustrated an LSB: A larger estimated mean size was found in the left-larger condition than in the right-larger condition (Experiment 1), and the LSB vanished when participants' attention was effectively cued to the right side (Experiment 2b). Furthermore, the magnitude of LSB increased with stimulus-onset asynchrony (SOA), when spots on the left side were presented earlier than the right side. In contrast, the LSB vanished and then induced a reversed effect with SOA when spots on the right side were presented earlier (Experiment 3). This study offers the first piece of evidence suggesting that LSB does have a significant influence on mean size estimation of a group of items, which is induced by a leftward attentional bias that enhances the prior entry effect on the left side.

Global sulfur emissions from 1850 to 2000.

PubMed

Stern, David I

2005-01-01

The ASL database provides continuous time-series of sulfur emissions for most countries in the World from 1850 to 1990, but academic and official estimates for the 1990s either do not cover all years or countries. This paper develops continuous time series of sulfur emissions by country for the period 1850-2000 with a particular focus on developments in the 1990s. Global estimates for 1996-2000 are the first that are based on actual observed data. Raw estimates are obtained in two ways. For countries and years with existing published data I compile and integrate that data. Previously published data covers the majority of emissions and almost all countries have published emissions for at least 1995. For the remaining countries and for missing years for countries with some published data, I interpolate or extrapolate estimates using either an econometric emissions frontier model, an environmental Kuznets curve model, or a simple extrapolation, depending on the availability of data. Finally, I discuss the main movements in global and regional emissions in the 1990s and earlier decades and compare the results to other studies. Global emissions peaked in 1989 and declined rapidly thereafter. The locus of emissions shifted towards East and South Asia, but even this region peaked in 1996. My estimates for the 1990s show a much more rapid decline than other global studies, reflecting the view that technological progress in reducing sulfur based pollution has been rapid and is beginning to diffuse worldwide.

ac electroosmotic pumping induced by noncontact external electrodes.

PubMed

Wang, Shau-Chun; Chen, Hsiao-Ping; Chang, Hsueh-Chia

2007-09-21

Electroosmotic (EO) pumps based on dc electroosmosis is plagued by bubble generation and other electrochemical reactions at the electrodes at voltages beyond 1 V for electrolytes. These disadvantages limit their throughput and offset their portability advantage over mechanical syringe or pneumatic pumps. ac electroosmotic pumps at high frequency (>100 kHz) circumvent the bubble problem by inducing polarization and slip velocity on embedded electrodes,1 but they require complex electrode designs to produce a net flow. We report a new high-throughput ac EO pump design based on induced-polarization on the entire channel surface instead of just on the electrodes. Like dc EO pumps, our pump electrodes are outside of the load section and form a cm-long pump unit consisting of three circular reservoirs (3 mm in diameter) connected by a 1x1 mm channel. The field-induced polarization can produce an effective Zeta potential exceeding 1 V and an ac slip velocity estimated as 1 mmsec or higher, both one order of magnitude higher than earlier dc and ac pumps, giving rise to a maximum throughput of 1 mulsec. Polarization over the entire channel surface, quadratic scaling with respect to the field and high voltage at high frequency without electrode bubble generation are the reasons why the current pump is superior to earlier dc and ac EO pumps.

STS-40 descent BET products: Development and results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oakes, Kevin F.; Wood, James S.; Findlay, John T.

1991-01-01

Descent Best Estimate Trajectory (BET) Data were generated for the final Orbiter Experiments Flight, STS-40. This report discusses the actual development of these post-flight products: the inertial BET, the Extended BET, and the Aerodynamic BET. Summary results are also included. The inertial BET was determined based on processing Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRSS) coherent Doppler data in conjunction with observations from eleven C-band stations, to include data from the Kwajalein Atoll and the usual California coastal radars, as well as data from five cinetheodolite cameras in the vicinity of the runways at EAFB. The anchor epoch utilized for the trajectory reconstruction was 53,904 Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) seconds which corresponds to an altitude at epoch of approximately 708 kft. Atmospheric data to enable development of an Extended BET for this mission were upsurped from the JSC operational post-flight BET. These data were evaluated based on Space Shuttle-derived considerations as well as model comparisons. The Aerodynamic BET includes configuration information, final mass properties, and both flight-determined and predicted aerodynamic performance estimates. The predicted data were based on the final pre-operational databook, updated to include flight determined incrementals based on an earlier ensemble of flights. Aerodynamic performance comparisons are presented and correlated versus statistical results based on twenty-two previous missions.

Overheating Anomalies during Flight Test Due to the Base Bleeding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luchinsky, Dmitry; Hafiychuck, Halyna; Osipov, Slava; Ponizhovskaya, Ekaterina; Smelyanskiy, Vadim; Dagostino, Mark; Canabal, Francisco; Mobley, Brandon L.

2012-01-01

In this paper we present the results of the analytical and numerical studies of the plume interaction with the base flow in the presence of base out-gassing. The physics-based analysis and CFD modeling of the base heating for single solid rocket motor performed in this research addressed the following questions: what are the key factors making base flow so different from that in the Shuttle [1]; why CFD analysis of this problem reveals small plume recirculation; what major factors influence base temperature; and why overheating was initiated at a given time in the flight. To answer these questions topological analysis of the base flow was performed and Korst theory was used to estimate relative contributions of radiation, plume recirculation, and chemically reactive out-gassing to the base heating. It was shown that base bleeding and small base volume are the key factors contributing to the overheating, while plume recirculation is effectively suppressed by asymmetric configuration of the flow formed earlier in the flight. These findings are further verified using CFD simulations that include multi-species gas environment both in the plume and in the base. Solid particles in the exhaust plume (Al2O3) and char particles in the base bleeding were also included into the simulations and their relative contributions into the base temperature rise were estimated. The results of simulations are in good agreement with the temperature and pressure in the base measured during the test.

Exploring the Benefits of Molecular Testing for Gonorrhoea Antibiotic Resistance Surveillance in Remote Settings.

PubMed

Hui, Ben B; Ryder, Nathan; Su, Jiunn-Yih; Ward, James; Chen, Marcus Y; Donovan, Basil; Fairley, Christopher K; Guy, Rebecca J; Lahra, Monica M; Law, Mathew G; Whiley, David M; Regan, David G

2015-01-01

Surveillance for gonorrhoea antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is compromised by a move away from culture-based testing in favour of more convenient nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) tests. We assessed the potential benefit of a molecular resistance test in terms of the timeliness of detection of gonorrhoea AMR. An individual-based mathematical model was developed to describe the transmission of gonorrhoea in a remote Indigenous population in Australia. We estimated the impact of the molecular test on the time delay between first importation and the first confirmation that the prevalence of gonorrhoea AMR (resistance proportion) has breached the WHO-recommended 5% threshold (when a change in antibiotic should occur). In the remote setting evaluated in this study, the model predicts that when culture is the only available means of testing for AMR, the breach will only be detected when the actual prevalence of AMR in the population has already reached 8 - 18%, with an associated delay of ~43 - 69 months between first importation and detection. With the addition of a molecular resistance test, the number of samples for which AMR can be determined increases facilitating earlier detection at a lower resistance proportion. For the best case scenario, where AMR can be determined for all diagnostic samples, the alert would be triggered at least 8 months earlier than using culture alone and the resistance proportion will have only slightly exceeded the 5% notification threshold. Molecular tests have the potential to provide more timely warning of the emergence of gonorrhoea AMR. This in turn will facilitate earlier treatment switching and more targeted treatment, which has the potential to reduce the population impact of gonorrhoea AMR.

Exploring the Benefits of Molecular Testing for Gonorrhoea Antibiotic Resistance Surveillance in Remote Settings

PubMed Central

Hui, Ben B.; Ryder, Nathan; Su, Jiunn-Yih; Ward, James; Chen, Marcus Y.; Donovan, Basil; Fairley, Christopher K.; Guy, Rebecca J.; Lahra, Monica M.; Law, Mathew G.; Whiley, David M.; Regan, David G.

2015-01-01

Background Surveillance for gonorrhoea antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is compromised by a move away from culture-based testing in favour of more convenient nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) tests. We assessed the potential benefit of a molecular resistance test in terms of the timeliness of detection of gonorrhoea AMR. Methods and Findings An individual-based mathematical model was developed to describe the transmission of gonorrhoea in a remote Indigenous population in Australia. We estimated the impact of the molecular test on the time delay between first importation and the first confirmation that the prevalence of gonorrhoea AMR (resistance proportion) has breached the WHO-recommended 5% threshold (when a change in antibiotic should occur). In the remote setting evaluated in this study, the model predicts that when culture is the only available means of testing for AMR, the breach will only be detected when the actual prevalence of AMR in the population has already reached 8 – 18%, with an associated delay of ~43 – 69 months between first importation and detection. With the addition of a molecular resistance test, the number of samples for which AMR can be determined increases facilitating earlier detection at a lower resistance proportion. For the best case scenario, where AMR can be determined for all diagnostic samples, the alert would be triggered at least 8 months earlier than using culture alone and the resistance proportion will have only slightly exceeded the 5% notification threshold. Conclusions Molecular tests have the potential to provide more timely warning of the emergence of gonorrhoea AMR. This in turn will facilitate earlier treatment switching and more targeted treatment, which has the potential to reduce the population impact of gonorrhoea AMR. PMID:26181042

Estimates of emergency operating capacity in U.S. manufacturing industries: 1994--2005

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Belzer, D.B.

1997-02-01

To develop integrated policies for mobilization preparedness, planners require estimates and projections of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. This report develops projections of national emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 458 US manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. These measures are intended for use in planning models that are designed to predict the demands for detailed industry sectors that would occur under conditions such as a military mobilization or a major national disaster. This report is part of an ongoing series of studies prepared by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to support mobilization planning studiesmore » of the Federal Emergency Planning Agency/US Department of Defense (FEMA/DOD). Earlier sets of EOC estimates were developed in 1985 and 1991. This study presents estimates of EOC through 2005. As in the 1991 study, projections of capacity were based upon extrapolations of equipment capital stocks. The methodology uses time series regression models based on industry data to obtain a response function of industry capital stock to levels of industrial output. The distributed lag coefficients of these response function are then used with projected outputs to extrapolate the 1994 level of EOC. Projections of industrial outputs were taken from the intermediate-term forecast of the US economy prepared by INFORUM (Interindustry Forecasting Model, University of Maryland) in the spring of 1996.« less

Frequency of ICD-10 factitious disorder: survey of senior hospital consultants and physicians in private practice.

PubMed

Fliege, Herbert; Grimm, Anne; Eckhardt-Henn, Annegret; Gieler, Uwe; Martin, Katharina; Klapp, Burghard F

2007-01-01

The authors surveyed physicians for frequency estimates of factitious disorder among their patients. Twenty-six physicians in independent practice and 83 senior hospital consultants in internal medicine, surgery, neurology, and dermatology participated. They completed a questionnaire including the estimated 1-year prevalence of factitious disorder among their patients. Frequency estimates averaged 1.3% (0.0001%-15%). The number of patients treated correlated negatively with frequency estimates. Dermatologists and neurologists gave the highest estimations. One-third of the physicians rated themselves as insufficiently informed. Frequency estimations did not differ by information level. The estimated frequency is substantial and comparable to earlier findings. Authors discuss clinical implications.

Differential Scavenging Among Pig, Rabbit, and Human Subjects.

PubMed

Steadman, Dawnie Wolfe; Dautartas, Angela; Kenyhercz, Michael W; Jantz, Lee M; Mundorff, Amy; Vidoli, Giovanna M

2018-04-12

Different animal species have been used as proxies for human remains in decomposition studies for decades, although few studies have sought to validate their use in research aimed at estimating the postmortem interval. This study examines 45 pig, rabbit, and human subjects placed in three seasonal trials at the Anthropology Research Facility. In an earlier paper, we found that overall decomposition trends did vary between species that could be due to differential insect and scavenger behavior. This study specifically examines if scavenger behavior differs by carrion species. Daily photographs, game camera photographs, written observations, and Total Body Score (TBS) documented scavenging and decomposition changes. Results show that raccoons were the most commonly observed vertebrate scavenger, that scavenging was most extensive in winter, and that certain human subjects were preferred over other humans and all non-human subjects. Finally, scavenging activity greatly reduces the accuracy of postmortem interval estimates based on TBS. © 2018 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Depth to the bottom of magnetic sources (DBMS) from aeromagnetic data of Central India using modified centroid method for fractal distribution of sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bansal, A. R.; Anand, S. P.; Rajaram, Mita; Rao, V. K.; Dimri, V. P.

2013-09-01

The depth to the bottom of the magnetic sources (DBMS) has been estimated from the aeromagnetic data of Central India. The conventional centroid method of DBMS estimation assumes random uniform uncorrelated distribution of sources and to overcome this limitation a modified centroid method based on scaling distribution has been proposed. Shallower values of the DBMS are found for the south western region. The DBMS values are found as low as 22 km in the south west Deccan trap covered regions and as deep as 43 km in the Chhattisgarh Basin. In most of the places DBMS are much shallower than the Moho depth, earlier found from the seismic study and may be representing the thermal/compositional/petrological boundaries. The large variation in the DBMS indicates the complex nature of the Indian crust.

Leucosome distribution in migmatitic paragneisses and orthogneisses: A record of self-organized melt migration and entrapment in a heterogeneous partially-molten crust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yakymchuk, C.; Brown, M.; Ivanic, T. J.; Korhonen, F. J.

2013-09-01

The depth to the bottom of the magnetic sources (DBMS) has been estimated from the aeromagnetic data of Central India. The conventional centroid method of DBMS estimation assumes random uniform uncorrelated distribution of sources and to overcome this limitation a modified centroid method based on scaling distribution has been proposed. Shallower values of the DBMS are found for the south western region. The DBMS values are found as low as 22 km in the south west Deccan trap covered regions and as deep as 43 km in the Chhattisgarh Basin. In most of the places DBMS are much shallower than the Moho depth, earlier found from the seismic study and may be representing the thermal/compositional/petrological boundaries. The large variation in the DBMS indicates the complex nature of the Indian crust.

Boundary Layer Depth In Coastal Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porson, A.; Schayes, G.

The results of earlier studies performed about sea breezes simulations have shown that this is a relevant feature of the Planetary Boundary Layer that still requires effort to be diagnosed properly by atmospheric models. Based on the observations made during the ESCOMPTE campaign, over the Mediterranean Sea, different CBL and SBL height estimation processes have been tested with a meso-scale model, TVM. The aim was to compare the critical points of the BL height determination computed using turbulent kinetic energy profile with some other standard evaluations. Moreover, these results have been analysed with different mixing length formulation. The sensitivity of formulation is also analysed with a simple coastal configuration.

voom: precision weights unlock linear model analysis tools for RNA-seq read counts

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

New normal linear modeling strategies are presented for analyzing read counts from RNA-seq experiments. The voom method estimates the mean-variance relationship of the log-counts, generates a precision weight for each observation and enters these into the limma empirical Bayes analysis pipeline. This opens access for RNA-seq analysts to a large body of methodology developed for microarrays. Simulation studies show that voom performs as well or better than count-based RNA-seq methods even when the data are generated according to the assumptions of the earlier methods. Two case studies illustrate the use of linear modeling and gene set testing methods. PMID:24485249

voom: Precision weights unlock linear model analysis tools for RNA-seq read counts.

PubMed

Law, Charity W; Chen, Yunshun; Shi, Wei; Smyth, Gordon K

2014-02-03

New normal linear modeling strategies are presented for analyzing read counts from RNA-seq experiments. The voom method estimates the mean-variance relationship of the log-counts, generates a precision weight for each observation and enters these into the limma empirical Bayes analysis pipeline. This opens access for RNA-seq analysts to a large body of methodology developed for microarrays. Simulation studies show that voom performs as well or better than count-based RNA-seq methods even when the data are generated according to the assumptions of the earlier methods. Two case studies illustrate the use of linear modeling and gene set testing methods.

Proportion of recovered goose and brant bands that are reported

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martinson, R.K.; McCann, J.A.

1966-01-01

A few more than one-third of the goose and brant bands recovered by hunters were reported to the Bird Banding Laboratory (a rate of 0.361) during the 1962-64 hunting seasons. We calculated this band-reporting rate by comparing the estimated number of goose and brant bands recovered by hunters, based on a mail questionnaire survey, with the number of bands actually reported to the Bird Banding Laboratory. This band-reporting rate is probably representative only of the 1962-65 period. It is likely that, in earlier years, a greater proportion (perhaps about 0.60) of recovered goose and brant bands were reported.

Estimation of flow properties using surface deformation and head data: A trajectory-based approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vasco, D.W.

2004-07-12

A trajectory-based algorithm provides an efficient and robust means to infer flow properties from surface deformation and head data. The algorithm is based upon the concept of an ''arrival time'' of a drawdown front, which is defined as the time corresponding to the maximum slope of the drawdown curve. The technique involves three steps: the inference of head changes as a function of position and time, the use of the estimated head changes to define arrival times, and the inversion of the arrival times for flow properties. Trajectories, computed from the output of a numerical simulator, are used to relatemore » the drawdown arrival times to flow properties. The inversion algorithm is iterative, requiring one reservoir simulation for each iteration. The method is applied to data from a set of 14 tiltmeters, located at the Raymond Quarry field site in California. Using the technique, I am able to image a high-conductivity channel which extends to the south of the pumping well. The presence of th is permeable pathway is supported by an analysis of earlier cross-well transient pressure test data.« less

Solid Cancer Incidence in the Techa River Incidence Cohort: 1956-2007.

PubMed

Davis, F G; Yu, K L; Preston, D; Epifanova, S; Degteva, M; Akleyev, A V

2015-07-01

Previously reported studies of the Techa River Cohort have established associations between radiation dose and the occurrence of solid cancers and leukemia (non-CLL) that appear to be linear in dose response. These analyses include 17,435 cohort members alive and not known to have had cancer prior to January 1, 1956 who lived in areas near the river or Chelyabinsk City at some time between 1956 and the end of 2007, utilized individualized dose estimates computed using the Techa River Dosimetry System 2009 and included five more years of follow-up. The median and mean dose estimates based on these doses are consistently higher than those based on earlier Techa River Dosimetry System 2000 dose estimates. This article includes new site-specific cancer risk estimates and risk estimates adjusted for available information on smoking. There is a statistically significant (P = 0.02) linear trend in the smoking-adjusted all-solid cancer incidence risks with an excess relative risk (ERR) after exposure to 100 mGy of 0.077 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.013-0.15. Examination of site-specific risks revealed statistically significant radiation dose effects only for cancers of the esophagus and uterus with an ERR per 100 mGy estimates in excess of 0.10. Esophageal cancer risk estimates were modified by ethnicity and sex, but not smoking. While the solid cancer rates are attenuated when esophageal cancer is removed (ERR = 0.063 per 100 mGy), a dose-response relationship is present and it remains likely that radiation exposure has increased the risks for most solid cancers in the cohort despite the lack of power to detect statistically significant risks for specific sites.

Estimating the Return to College Selectivity over the Career Using Administrative Earnings Data. NBER Working Paper No. 17159

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dale, Stacy; Krueger, Alan B.

2011-01-01

We estimate the monetary return to attending a highly selective college using the College and Beyond (C&B) Survey linked to Detailed Earnings Records from the Social Security Administration (SSA). This paper extends earlier work by Dale and Krueger (2002) that examined the relationship between the college that students attended in 1976 and the…

Antecedent precipitation index determined from CST estimates of rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, David W.

1992-01-01

This paper deals with an experimental calculation of a satellite-based antecedent precipitation index (API). The index is also derived from daily rain images produced from infrared images using an improved version of GSFC's Convective/Stratiform Technique (CST). API is a measure of soil moisture, and is based on the notion that the amount of moisture in the soil at a given time is related to precipitation at earlier times. Four different CST programs as well as the Geostationary Operational Enviroment Satellite (GOES) Precipitation Index developed by Arkin in 1979 are compared to experimental results, for the Mississippi Valley during the month of July. Rain images are shown for the best CST code and the ARK program. Comparisons are made as to the accuracy and detail of the results for the two codes. This project demonstrates the feasibility of running the CST on a synoptic scale. The Mississippi Valley case is well suited for testing the feasibility of monitoring soil moisture by means of CST. Preliminary comparisons of CST and ARK indicate significant differences in estimates of rain amount and distribution.

Third molar mineralization in relation to chronologic age estimation of the Han in central southern China.

PubMed

Liu, Ying; Geng, Kun; Chu, Yanhao; Xu, Mindi; Zha, Lagabaiyila

2018-03-03

The purpose of this study is to provide a forensic reference data about estimating chronologic age by evaluating the third molar mineralization of Han in central southern China. The mineralization degree of third molars was assessed by Demirjian's classification with modification for 2519 digital orthopantomograms (1190 males, 1329 females; age 8-23 years). The mean ages of the initial mineralization and the crown completion of third molars were around 9.66 and 13.88 years old in males and 9.52 and 14.09 years old in females. The minimum ages of apical closure were around 16 years in both sexes. Twenty-eight at stage C and stage G and 38 and 48 at stage F occurred earlier in males than in females. There was no significant difference between maxillary and mandibular teeth in males and females except that stage C in males. Two formulas were devised to estimate age based on mineralization stages and sexes. In Hunan Province, the person will probably be over age 14, when a third molar reaches the stage G. The results of the study could provide reference for age estimation in forensic cases and clinical dentistry.

Number line estimation and mental addition: examining the potential roles of language and education.

PubMed

Laski, Elida V; Yu, Qingyi

2014-01-01

This study investigated the relative importance of language and education to the development of numerical knowledge. Consistent with previous research suggesting that counting systems that transparently reflect the base-10 system facilitate an understanding of numerical concepts, Chinese and Chinese American kindergartners' and second graders' number line estimation (0-100 and 0-1000) was 1 to 2 years more advanced than that of American children tested in previous studies. However, Chinese children performed better than their Chinese American peers, who were fluent in Chinese but had been educated in America, at kindergarten on 0-100 number lines, at second grade on 0-1000 number lines, and at both time points on complex addition problems. Overall, the pattern of findings suggests that educational approach may have a greater influence on numerical development than the linguistic structure of the counting system. The findings also demonstrate that, despite generating accurate estimates of numerical magnitude on 0-100 number lines earlier, it still takes Chinese children approximately 2 years to demonstrate accurate estimates on 0-1000 number lines, which raises questions about how to promote the mapping of knowledge across numerical scales. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aorta modeling with the element-based zero-stress state and isogeometric discretization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takizawa, Kenji; Tezduyar, Tayfun E.; Sasaki, Takafumi

2017-02-01

Patient-specific arterial fluid-structure interaction computations, including aorta computations, require an estimation of the zero-stress state (ZSS), because the image-based arterial geometries do not come from a ZSS. We have earlier introduced a method for estimation of the element-based ZSS (EBZSS) in the context of finite element discretization of the arterial wall. The method has three main components. 1. An iterative method, which starts with a calculated initial guess, is used for computing the EBZSS such that when a given pressure load is applied, the image-based target shape is matched. 2. A method for straight-tube segments is used for computing the EBZSS so that we match the given diameter and longitudinal stretch in the target configuration and the "opening angle." 3. An element-based mapping between the artery and straight-tube is extracted from the mapping between the artery and straight-tube segments. This provides the mapping from the arterial configuration to the straight-tube configuration, and from the estimated EBZSS of the straight-tube configuration back to the arterial configuration, to be used as the initial guess for the iterative method that matches the image-based target shape. Here we present the version of the EBZSS estimation method with isogeometric wall discretization. With isogeometric discretization, we can obtain the element-based mapping directly, instead of extracting it from the mapping between the artery and straight-tube segments. That is because all we need for the element-based mapping, including the curvatures, can be obtained within an element. With NURBS basis functions, we may be able to achieve a similar level of accuracy as with the linear basis functions, but using larger-size and much fewer elements. Higher-order NURBS basis functions allow representation of more complex shapes within an element. To show how the new EBZSS estimation method performs, we first present 2D test computations with straight-tube configurations. Then we show how the method can be used in a 3D computation where the target geometry is coming from medical image of a human aorta.

Visual Prognosis in USH2A-Associated Retinitis Pigmentosa Is Worse for Patients with Usher Syndrome Type IIa Than for Those with Nonsyndromic Retinitis Pigmentosa.

PubMed

Pierrache, Laurence H M; Hartel, Bas P; van Wijk, Erwin; Meester-Smoor, Magda A; Cremers, Frans P M; de Baere, Elfride; de Zaeytijd, Julie; van Schooneveld, Mary J; Cremers, Cor W R J; Dagnelie, Gislin; Hoyng, Carel B; Bergen, Arthur A; Leroy, Bart P; Pennings, Ronald J E; van den Born, L Ingeborgh; Klaver, Caroline C W

2016-05-01

USH2A mutations are an important cause of retinitis pigmentosa (RP) with or without congenital sensorineural hearing impairment. We studied genotype-phenotype correlations and compared visual prognosis in Usher syndrome type IIa and nonsyndromic RP. Clinic-based, longitudinal, multicenter study. Consecutive patients with Usher syndrome type IIa (n = 152) and nonsyndromic RP (n = 73) resulting from USH2A mutations from ophthalmogenetic clinics in the Netherlands and Belgium. Data on clinical characteristics, visual acuity, visual field measurements, retinal imaging, and electrophysiologic features were extracted from medical charts over a mean follow-up of 9 years. Cumulative lifetime risks of low vision and blindness were estimated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Low vision and blindness. Participant groups had similar distributions of gender (48% vs. 45% males in Usher syndrome type IIa vs. nonsydromic RP; P = 0.8), ethnicity (97% vs. 99% European; P = 0.3), and median follow-up time (6.5 years vs. 3 years; P = 0.3). Usher syndrome type IIa patients demonstrated symptoms at a younger age (median age, 15 years vs. 25 years; P < 0.001), were diagnosed earlier (median age, 26 years vs. 36.5 years; P < 0.001), and became visually impaired 13 years earlier (median age, 41 years vs. 54 years; P < 0.001) based on VF and 18 years earlier based on VA (median age, 54 years vs. 72 years; P < 0.001) than nonsyndromic RP patients. The presence of 2 truncating mutations in USH2A was associated mostly with the syndromic phenotype, whereas other combinations were present in both groups. We found novel variants in Usher syndrome type IIa (25%) and nonsyndromic RP (19%): 29 missense mutations, 10 indels, 14 nonsense mutations, 9 frameshift mutations, and 5 splice-site mutations. Most patients with USH2A-associated RP have severe visual impairment by age 50. However, those with Usher syndrome type IIa have an earlier decline of visual function and a higher cumulative risk of visual impairment than those without nonsyndromic RP. Complete loss of function of the USH2A protein predisposes to Usher syndrome type IIa, but remnant protein function can lead to RP with or without hearing loss. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The discovery of a very cool binary system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burningham, Ben; Leggett, S. K.; Lucas, P. W.; Pinfield, D. J.; Smart, R. L.; Day-Jones, A. C.; Jones, H. R. A.; Murray, D.; Nickson, E.; Tamura, M.; Zhang, Z.; Lodieu, N.; Tinney, C. G.; Zapatero Osorio, M. R.

2010-06-01

We report the discovery of a very cool d/sdL7+T7.5p common proper motion binary system, SDSS J1416+13AB, found by cross-matching the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (UKIRT) Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS) Large Area Survey Data Release 5 (UKIDSS LAS DR4) against the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7. The d/sdL7 is blue in J - H and H - K and has other features suggestive of low metallicity and/or high gravity. The T7.5p displays spectral peculiarity seen before in earlier type dwarfs discovered in UKIDSS LAS DR4, and referred to as CH4-J-early peculiarity, where the CH4-J index, based on the absorption to the red side of the J-band peak, suggests an earlier spectral type than the H2O-J index, based on the blue side of the J-band peak, by ~2 subtypes. We suggest that CH4-J-early peculiarity arises from low metallicity and/or high gravity, and speculate as to its use for classifying T dwarfs. UKIDSS and follow-up United Kingdom Infrared Telescope/Wide Field CAMera (UKIRT/WFCAM) photometry shows the T dwarf to have the bluest near-infrared colours yet seen for such an object with H - K = -1.31 +/- 0.17. Warm Spitzer IRAC photometry shows the T dwarf to have extremely red H - [4.5] = 4.86 +/- 0.04, which is the reddest yet seen for a substellar object. The lack of parallax measurement for the pair limits our ability to estimate parameters for the system. However, applying a conservative distance estimate of 5-15 pc suggests a projected separation in range 45-135 au. By comparing H - K:H - [4.5] colours of the T dwarf to spectral models, we estimate that Teff = 500 K and [M/H] ~ - 0.30, with logg ~ 5.0. This suggests a mass of ~30 MJupiter for the T dwarf and an age of ~10 Gyr for the system. The primary would then be a 75 MJupiter object with logg ~ 5.5 and a relatively dust-free Teff ~ 1500K atmosphere. Given the unusual properties of the system we caution that these estimates are uncertain. We eagerly await parallax measurements and high-resolution imaging which will constrain the parameters further.

Snowmelt Pattern and Lake Ice Phenology around Tibetan Plateau Estimated from Enhanced Resolution Passive Microwave Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, C.; Shi, J.; Wang, T.

2017-12-01

Snow and ice is very sensitive to the climate change. Rising air temperature will cause the snowmelt time change. In contrast, the change in snow state will have feedback on climate through snow albedo. The snow melt timing is also correlated with the associated runoff. Ice phenology describes the seasonal cycle of lake ice cover and includes freeze-up and breakup periods and ice cover duration, which is an important weather and climate indicator. It is also important for lake-atmosphere interactions and hydrological and ecological processes. The enhanced resolution (up to 3.125 km) passive microwave data is used to estimate the snowmelt pattern and lake ice phenology on and around Tibetan Plateau. The enhanced resolution makes the estimation of snowmelt and lake ice phenology in more spatial detail compared to previous 25 km gridded passive microwave data. New algorithm based on smooth filters and change point detection was developed to estimate the snowmelt and lake ice freeze-up and break-up timing. Spatial and temporal pattern of snowmelt and lake ice phonology are estimated. This study provides an objective evidence of climate change impact on the cryospheric system on Tibetan Plateau. The results show significant earlier snowmelt and lake ice break-up in some regions.

Hydrology of the coastal sabkhas of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanford, Ward E.; Wood, Warren W.

2001-01-01

Water fluxes were estimated and a water budget developed for the land surface and a surficial 10-m-deep section of the coastal sabkhas that extend from the city of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, west to the border with Saudi Arabia. The fluxes were estimated on the basis of water levels and hydraulic conductivities measured in wells and evaporation rates measured with a humidity chamber. In contrast with conceptual models proposed in earlier studies, groundwater inflow is estimated to be small, whereas the largest components of the water budget are recharge from rainfall and evaporation from the water table. Estimates within a rectilinear volume of sabkha, defined as 1 m wide by 10 km long by 10 m deep, indicate that about 1 m3/year of water enters and exits by lateral groundwater flow; 40–50 m3/year enters by upward leakage; and 640 m3/year enters by recharge from rainfall. Based on the water and solute fluxes estimated for the upward leakage into the sabkha, 7–8 pore volumes of brine have entered the sabkha from below since the time the sabkha became saturated (7,000 years ago) as a result of the last global sea-level rise.

Estimate of mortality reduction with implementation of advanced automatic collision notification.

PubMed

Lee, Ellen; Wu, Jingshu; Kang, Thomas; Craig, Matthew

2017-05-29

Advanced Automatic Collision Notification (AACN) is a system on a motor vehicle that notifies a public safety answering point (PSAP), either directly or through a third party, that the vehicle has had a crash. AACN systems enable earlier notification of a motor vehicle crash and provide an injury prediction that can help dispatchers and first responders make better decisions about how and where to transport the patient, thus getting the patient to definitive care sooner. The purposes of the current research are to identify the target population that could benefit from AACN, and to develop a reasonable estimate range of potential lives saved with implementation of AACN within the vehicle fleet. Data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) years 2009-2015 and National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) years 2000-2015 were obtained. FARS data were used to determine absolute estimates of the target population who may receive benefit from AACN. These estimates accounted for a number of factors, such as whether a fatal occupant had nearby access to a trauma center and also was correctly identified by the injury severity prediction algorithm as having a "high probability of severe injury." NASS-CDS data were used to provide relative comparisons among subsets of the population. Specifically, relative survival rate ratios between occupants treated at trauma centers versus at non-trauma centers were determined using the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. Finally, the fatality reduction rate associated with trauma center care was combined with the previously published fatality reduction rate for faster notification time to develop a range for possible lives saved. Two relevant target populations were identified. A larger subset of 6893 fatalities can benefit only from earlier notification associated with AACN. A smaller subgroup of between 1495 and 2330 fatalities can benefit from both earlier notification and change in treatment destination (i.e., non-trauma center to trauma center). A Kaplan-Meier life curve and a multiple proportional hazard model were used to predict the benefits associated with transport to a trauma center. The resulting range for potential lives saved annually was 360 to 721. This analysis provides the estimates of lives that could potentially be saved with full implementation of AACN and universal cell coverage availability. This represents a fatality reduction of approximately 1.6% to 3.3% per year, and more than double the lives saved by earlier notification alone. In conclusion, AACN is a postcrash technology with a promising potential for safety benefit. AACN is therefore a key component of integrated safety systems that aim to protect occupants across the entire crash spectrum.

Recovering area-to-mass ratio of resident space objects through data mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Hao; Bai, Xiaoli

2018-01-01

The area-to-mass ratio (AMR) of a resident space object (RSO) is an important parameter for improved space situation awareness capability due to its effect on the non-conservative forces including the atmosphere drag force and the solar radiation pressure force. However, information about AMR is often not provided in most space catalogs. The present paper investigates recovering the AMR information from the consistency error, which refers to the difference between the orbit predicted from an earlier estimate and the orbit estimated at the current epoch. A data mining technique, particularly the random forest (RF) method, is used to discover the relationship between the consistency error and the AMR. Using a simulation-based space catalog environment as the testbed, this paper demonstrates that the classification RF model can determine the RSO's category AMR and the regression RF model can generate continuous AMR values, both with good accuracies. Furthermore, the paper reveals that by recording additional information besides the consistency error, the RF model can estimate the AMR with even higher accuracy.

Depth estimation of features in video frames with improved feature matching technique using Kinect sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Kajal; Moon, Inkyu; Kim, Sung Gaun

2012-10-01

Estimating depth has long been a major issue in the field of computer vision and robotics. The Kinect sensor's active sensing strategy provides high-frame-rate depth maps and can recognize user gestures and human pose. This paper presents a technique to estimate the depth of features extracted from video frames, along with an improved feature-matching method. In this paper, we used the Kinect camera developed by Microsoft, which captured color and depth images for further processing. Feature detection and selection is an important task for robot navigation. Many feature-matching techniques have been proposed earlier, and this paper proposes an improved feature matching between successive video frames with the use of neural network methodology in order to reduce the computation time of feature matching. The features extracted are invariant to image scale and rotation, and different experiments were conducted to evaluate the performance of feature matching between successive video frames. The extracted features are assigned distance based on the Kinect technology that can be used by the robot in order to determine the path of navigation, along with obstacle detection applications.

Diachronism between extinction time of terrestrial and marine dinosaurs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, H. J.

1988-01-01

The dinosaur eggs of southern France occur in continental, fine-grained red-beds, rich in carbonate. The last eggs in the region occur in the magnetic polarity interval 30 normal. Estimates of the accumulation rate of these sediments on the basis of the magneto-stratigraphy leads to placement of the time of disappearance of the dinosaurs in this region of 200,000 to 400,000 years earlier than the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. In the Red Deer Valley, Canada, estimates of average accumulation rate lead to a time of disappearance of the dinosaurs of 135,000 to 157,000 years earlier than the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. In the central part of Poland, in the Nasilow Quarry, the paleomagnetic pattern shows 7 m of chalk of reversed polarity containing in its upper part the marine Cretaceous-Tertiary biostratigraphic boundary. A greensand deposit contains numerous re-deposited Maastrichtian fossils. The fossils show no signs of wear and are of very different sizes including 1 mm thick juvenile belemnites. The deposit was described as a lag-sediment. Among the various fossils are teeth of mosasaurs. Thus there is coincidence in time between the extinction of mosasaurs and other Cretaceous organisms. This leads to the conclusion, that extinction of terrestrial dinosaurs took place earlier than extinction of marine dinosaurs at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary.

Motion Estimation Utilizing Range Detection-Enhanced Visual Odometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Daniel Dale (Inventor); Chang, Hong (Inventor); Friend, Paul Russell (Inventor); Chen, Qi (Inventor); Graf, Jodi Seaborn (Inventor)

2016-01-01

A motion determination system is disclosed. The system may receive a first and a second camera image from a camera, the first camera image received earlier than the second camera image. The system may identify corresponding features in the first and second camera images. The system may receive range data comprising at least one of a first and a second range data from a range detection unit, corresponding to the first and second camera images, respectively. The system may determine first positions and the second positions of the corresponding features using the first camera image and the second camera image. The first positions or the second positions may be determined by also using the range data. The system may determine a change in position of the machine based on differences between the first and second positions, and a VO-based velocity of the machine based on the determined change in position.

Induced abortion: incidence and trends worldwide from 1995 to 2008.

PubMed

Sedgh, Gilda; Singh, Susheela; Shah, Iqbal H; Ahman, Elisabeth; Henshaw, Stanley K; Bankole, Akinrinola

2012-02-18

Data of abortion incidence and trends are needed to monitor progress toward improvement of maternal health and access to family planning. To date, estimates of safe and unsafe abortion worldwide have only been made for 1995 and 2003. We used the standard WHO definition of unsafe abortions. Safe abortion estimates were based largely on official statistics and nationally representative surveys. Unsafe abortion estimates were based primarily on information from published studies, hospital records, and surveys of women. We used additional sources and systematic approaches to make corrections and projections as needed where data were misreported, incomplete, or from earlier years. We assessed trends in abortion incidence using rates developed for 1995, 2003, and 2008 with the same methodology. We used linear regression models to explore the association of the legal status of abortion with the abortion rate across subregions of the world in 2008. The global abortion rate was stable between 2003 and 2008, with rates of 29 and 28 abortions per 1000 women aged 15-44 years, respectively, following a period of decline from 35 abortions per 1000 women in 1995. The average annual percent change in the rate was nearly 2·4% between 1995 and 2003 and 0·3% between 2003 and 2008. Worldwide, 49% of abortions were unsafe in 2008, compared to 44% in 1995. About one in five pregnancies ended in abortion in 2008. The abortion rate was lower in subregions where more women live under liberal abortion laws (p<0·05). The substantial decline in the abortion rate observed earlier has stalled, and the proportion of all abortions that are unsafe has increased. Restrictive abortion laws are not associated with lower abortion rates. Measures to reduce the incidence of unintended pregnancy and unsafe abortion, including investments in family planning services and safe abortion care, are crucial steps toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals. UK Department for International Development, Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and John D and Catherine T MacArthur Foundation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Why Wait? The Effect of Marriage and Childbearing on the Wages of Men and Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loughran, David S.; Zissimopoulos, Julie M.

2009-01-01

We use data from the earlier and later cohorts of the NLSY to estimate the effect of marriage and childbearing on wages. Our estimates imply that marriage lowers female wages 2-4 percent in the year of marriage. Marriage also lowers the wage growth of men and women by about two and four percentage points, respectively. A first birth lowers female…

Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Processing arctic eddy-flux data using a simple carbon-exchange model embedded in the ensemble Kalman filter.

PubMed

Rastetter, Edward B; Williams, Mathew; Griffin, Kevin L; Kwiatkowski, Bonnie L; Tomasky, Gabrielle; Potosnak, Mark J; Stoy, Paul C; Shaver, Gaius R; Stieglitz, Marc; Hobbie, John E; Kling, George W

2010-07-01

Continuous time-series estimates of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) are routinely made using eddy covariance techniques. Identifying and compensating for errors in the NEE time series can be automated using a signal processing filter like the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The EnKF compares each measurement in the time series to a model prediction and updates the NEE estimate by weighting the measurement and model prediction relative to a specified measurement error estimate and an estimate of the model-prediction error that is continuously updated based on model predictions of earlier measurements in the time series. Because of the covariance among model variables, the EnKF can also update estimates of variables for which there is no direct measurement. The resulting estimates evolve through time, enabling the EnKF to be used to estimate dynamic variables like changes in leaf phenology. The evolving estimates can also serve as a means to test the embedded model and reconcile persistent deviations between observations and model predictions. We embedded a simple arctic NEE model into the EnKF and filtered data from an eddy covariance tower located in tussock tundra on the northern foothills of the Brooks Range in northern Alaska, USA. The model predicts NEE based only on leaf area, irradiance, and temperature and has been well corroborated for all the major vegetation types in the Low Arctic using chamber-based data. This is the first application of the model to eddy covariance data. We modified the EnKF by adding an adaptive noise estimator that provides a feedback between persistent model data deviations and the noise added to the ensemble of Monte Carlo simulations in the EnKF. We also ran the EnKF with both a specified leaf-area trajectory and with the EnKF sequentially recalibrating leaf-area estimates to compensate for persistent model-data deviations. When used together, adaptive noise estimation and sequential recalibration substantially improved filter performance, but it did not improve performance when used individually. The EnKF estimates of leaf area followed the expected springtime canopy phenology. However, there were also diel fluctuations in the leaf-area estimates; these are a clear indication of a model deficiency possibly related to vapor pressure effects on canopy conductance.

Estimation of Rainfall Sampling Uncertainty: A Comparison of Two Diverse Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steiner, Matthias; Zhang, Yu; Baeck, Mary Lynn; Wood, Eric F.; Smith, James A.; Bell, Thomas L.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The spatial and temporal intermittence of rainfall causes the averages of satellite observations of rain rate to differ from the "true" average rain rate over any given area and time period, even if the satellite observations are perfectly accurate. The difference of satellite averages based on occasional observation by satellite systems and the continuous-time average of rain rate is referred to as sampling error. In this study, rms sampling error estimates are obtained for average rain rates over boxes 100 km, 200 km, and 500 km on a side, for averaging periods of 1 day, 5 days, and 30 days. The study uses a multi-year, merged radar data product provided by Weather Services International Corp. at a resolution of 2 km in space and 15 min in time, over an area of the central U.S. extending from 35N to 45N in latitude and 100W to 80W in longitude. The intervals between satellite observations are assumed to be equal, and similar In size to what present and future satellite systems are able to provide (from 1 h to 12 h). The sampling error estimates are obtained using a resampling method called "resampling by shifts," and are compared to sampling error estimates proposed by Bell based on earlier work by Laughlin. The resampling estimates are found to scale with areal size and time period as the theory predicts. The dependence on average rain rate and time interval between observations is also similar to what the simple theory suggests.

Gyrokinetic modelling of the quasilinear particle flux for plasmas with neutral-beam fuelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narita, E.; Honda, M.; Nakata, M.; Yoshida, M.; Takenaga, H.; Hayashi, N.

2018-02-01

A quasilinear particle flux is modelled based on gyrokinetic calculations. The particle flux is estimated by determining factors, namely, coefficients of off-diagonal terms and a particle diffusivity. In this paper, the methodology to estimate the factors is presented using a subset of JT-60U plasmas. First, the coefficients of off-diagonal terms are estimated by linear gyrokinetic calculations. Next, to obtain the particle diffusivity, a semi-empirical approach is taken. Most experimental analyses for particle transport have assumed that turbulent particle fluxes are zero in the core region. On the other hand, even in the stationary state, the plasmas in question have a finite turbulent particle flux due to neutral-beam fuelling. By combining estimates of the experimental turbulent particle flux and the coefficients of off-diagonal terms calculated earlier, the particle diffusivity is obtained. The particle diffusivity should reflect a saturation amplitude of instabilities. The particle diffusivity is investigated in terms of the effects of the linear instability and linear zonal flow response, and it is found that a formula including these effects roughly reproduces the particle diffusivity. The developed framework for prediction of the particle flux is flexible to add terms neglected in the current model. The methodology to estimate the quasilinear particle flux requires so low computational cost that a database consisting of the resultant coefficients of off-diagonal terms and particle diffusivity can be constructed to train a neural network. The development of the methodology is the first step towards a neural-network-based particle transport model for fast prediction of the particle flux.

Constraining global air-sea gas exchange for CO2 with recent bomb 14C measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweeney, Colm; Gloor, Emanuel; Jacobson, Andrew R.; Key, Robert M.; McKinley, Galen; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Wanninkhof, Rik

2007-06-01

The 14CO2 released into the stratosphere during bomb testing in the early 1960s provides a global constraint on air-sea gas exchange of soluble atmospheric gases like CO2. Using the most complete database of dissolved inorganic radiocarbon, DI14C, available to date and a suite of ocean general circulation models in an inverse mode we recalculate the ocean inventory of bomb-produced DI14C in the global ocean and confirm that there is a 25% decrease from previous estimates using older DI14C data sets. Additionally, we find a 33% lower globally averaged gas transfer velocity for CO2 compared to previous estimates (Wanninkhof, 1992) using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 1954-2000 where the global mean winds are 6.9 m s-1. Unlike some earlier ocean radiocarbon studies, the implied gas transfer velocity finally closes the gap between small-scale deliberate tracer studies and global-scale estimates. Additionally, the total inventory of bomb-produced radiocarbon in the ocean is now in agreement with global budgets based on radiocarbon measurements made in the stratosphere and troposphere. Using the implied relationship between wind speed and gas transfer velocity ks = 0.27(Sc/660)-0.5 and standard partial pressure difference climatology of CO2 we obtain an net air-sea flux estimate of 1.3 ± 0.5 PgCyr-1 for 1995. After accounting for the carbon transferred from rivers to the deep ocean, our estimate of oceanic uptake (1.8 ± 0.5 PgCyr-1) compares well with estimates based on ocean inventories, ocean transport inversions using ocean concentration data, and model simulations.

Workplace smoking related absenteeism and productivity costs in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Tsai, S; Wen, C; Hu, S; Cheng, T; Huang, S

2005-01-01

Objective: To estimate productivity losses and financial costs to employers caused by cigarette smoking in the Taiwan workplace. Methods: The human capital approach was used to calculate lost productivity. Assuming the value of lost productivity was equal to the wage/salary rate and basing the calculations on smoking rate in the workforce, average days of absenteeism, average wage/salary rate, and increased risk and absenteeism among smokers obtained from earlier research, costs due to smoker absenteeism were estimated. Financial losses caused by passive smoking, smoking breaks, and occupational injuries were calculated. Results: Using a conservative estimate of excess absenteeism from work, male smokers took off an average of 4.36 sick days and male non-smokers took off an average of 3.30 sick days. Female smokers took off an average of 4.96 sick days and non-smoking females took off an average of 3.75 sick days. Excess absenteeism caused by employee smoking was estimated to cost US$178 million per annum for males and US$6 million for females at a total cost of US$184 million per annum. The time men and women spent taking smoking breaks amounted to nine days per year and six days per year, respectively, resulting in reduced output productivity losses of US$733 million. Increased sick leave costs due to passive smoking were approximately US$81 million. Potential costs incurred from occupational injuries among smoking employees were estimated to be US$34 million. Conclusions: Financial costs caused by increased absenteeism and reduced productivity from employees who smoke are significant in Taiwan. Based on conservative estimates, total costs attributed to smoking in the workforce were approximately US$1032 million. PMID:15923446

Workplace smoking related absenteeism and productivity costs in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, S P; Wen, C P; Hu, S C; Cheng, T Y; Huang, S J

2005-06-01

To estimate productivity losses and financial costs to employers caused by cigarette smoking in the Taiwan workplace. The human capital approach was used to calculate lost productivity. Assuming the value of lost productivity was equal to the wage/salary rate and basing the calculations on smoking rate in the workforce, average days of absenteeism, average wage/salary rate, and increased risk and absenteeism among smokers obtained from earlier research, costs due to smoker absenteeism were estimated. Financial losses caused by passive smoking, smoking breaks, and occupational injuries were calculated. Using a conservative estimate of excess absenteeism from work, male smokers took off an average of 4.36 sick days and male non-smokers took off an average of 3.30 sick days. Female smokers took off an average of 4.96 sick days and non-smoking females took off an average of 3.75 sick days. Excess absenteeism caused by employee smoking was estimated to cost USD 178 million per annum for males and USD 6 million for females at a total cost of USD 184 million per annum. The time men and women spent taking smoking breaks amounted to nine days per year and six days per year, respectively, resulting in reduced output productivity losses of USD 733 million. Increased sick leave costs due to passive smoking were approximately USD 81 million. Potential costs incurred from occupational injuries among smoking employees were estimated to be USD 34 million. Financial costs caused by increased absenteeism and reduced productivity from employees who smoke are significant in Taiwan. Based on conservative estimates, total costs attributed to smoking in the workforce were approximately USD 1032 million.

The possible impact of the German DRGs reimbursement system on end-of-life decision making in a surgical intensive care unit.

PubMed

Stachura, Peter; Oberender, Peter; Bundscherer, Anika C; Wiese, Christoph H R

2015-02-01

More than 70 % of critically ill patients die in intensive care units (ICUs) after treatment is reduced. End-of-life decision making in the ICU is a grey area that varies in practice, and there are potential economic consequences of over- and under-treatment. The aim of this study was to describe the end-of-life decisions of critically ill patients in a surgical ICU in Germany and to identify how financial incentives may influence decision making. Data on the admission diagnosis, end-of-life decision making and cause of death were obtained for 69 critically ill patients who died in the ICU (Hospital of Bayreuth, Germany) in 2009. A cost-revenue analysis was conducted on the 46 patients who did not die within 3 days of ICU admission. Because we lacked real data on costs, our analysis was based on the average cost for each diagnosis-related group (DRG) from the Institute for the Hospital Remuneration System (InEK). Hospital revenues based on the DRG were considered. Subsequently, we compared the estimated financial impact of earlier and later decisions to withdraw or withhold futile therapy. In this study, we found that end-of-life decision making was poorly documented. Only 11 % of patients had a valid power of attorney and advanced directives, and therapy with presumed consent was performed in 43 % of all cases. From long-stay patients, therapy was withdrawn for 37 % of patients and withheld from 26 % of patients, and 37 % of the patients died receiving maximal therapy. Almost 72 % of DRG-related reimbursements were dependent on ventilation hours. The average total cost estimate (according to InEK) for the 46 long-stay patients was 1,201,000 . The revenues without additional remuneration were 1,358,000 , and the total estimated profit was approximately 157,000 . Only 10 cases were assumed to be non-profitable. In cases where the decision to withdraw or withhold therapy could have occurred 3 days earlier, the estimated profit shrank to 72,000 (46 % of estimated ICU profit). In situations where the decision to withdraw or withhold therapy from patients could have occurred 3 days later, the hypothetical profit rose to 217,000 (138 % of estimated ICU profit). There are still few patients with clear self-determination, and almost half of therapies are performed only according to presumed consent. The strong nonlinear dependence of DRG revenues on ventilation hours could influence ethical decision making of medical professionals. The decision-making process and appropriate therapy in the ICU setting need to be defined more clearly and better documented, focusing on the benefits to the patient while respecting patient consent.

Using change-point models to estimate empirical critical loads for nitrogen in mountain ecosystems.

PubMed

Roth, Tobias; Kohli, Lukas; Rihm, Beat; Meier, Reto; Achermann, Beat

2017-01-01

To protect ecosystems and their services, the critical load concept has been implemented under the framework of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (UNECE) to develop effects-oriented air pollution abatement strategies. Critical loads are thresholds below which damaging effects on sensitive habitats do not occur according to current knowledge. Here we use change-point models applied in a Bayesian context to overcome some of the difficulties when estimating empirical critical loads for nitrogen (N) from empirical data. We tested the method using simulated data with varying sample sizes, varying effects of confounding variables, and with varying negative effects of N deposition on species richness. The method was applied to the national-scale plant species richness data from mountain hay meadows and (sub)alpine scrubs sites in Switzerland. Seven confounding factors (elevation, inclination, precipitation, calcareous content, aspect as well as indicator values for humidity and light) were selected based on earlier studies examining numerous environmental factors to explain Swiss vascular plant diversity. The estimated critical load confirmed the existing empirical critical load of 5-15 kg N ha -1 yr -1 for (sub)alpine scrubs, while for mountain hay meadows the estimated critical load was at the lower end of the current empirical critical load range. Based on these results, we suggest to narrow down the critical load range for mountain hay meadows to 10-15 kg N ha -1 yr -1 . Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing Scoring Algorithms (Earlier Methods)

Cancer.gov

We developed scoring procedures to convert screener responses to estimates of individual dietary intake for fruits and vegetables, dairy, added sugars, whole grains, fiber, and calcium using the What We Eat in America 24-hour dietary recall data from the 2003-2006 NHANES.

Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Nile River

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-04-15

... of which occurred north of Khartoum. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, tens of thousands of ... fled their homes, and the number of people in need of urgent food assistance in Sudan, estimated at three million earlier in the year, was ...

Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

Dietary intake and main sources of plant lignans in five European countries

PubMed Central

Tetens, Inge; Turrini, Aida; Tapanainen, Heli; Christensen, Tue; Lampe, Johanna W.; Fagt, Sisse; Håkansson, Niclas; Lundquist, Annamari; Hallund, Jesper; Valsta, Liisa M.

2013-01-01

Background Dietary intakes of plant lignans have been hypothesized to be inversely associated with the risk of developing cardiovascular disease and cancer. Earlier studies were based on a Finnish lignan database (Fineli®) with two lignan precursors, secoisolariciresinol (SECO) and matairesinol (MAT). More recently, a Dutch database, including SECO and MAT and the newly recognized lignan precursors lariciresinol (LARI) and pinoresinol (PINO), was compiled. The objective was to re-estimate and re-evaluate plant lignan intakes and to identify the main sources of plant lignans in five European countries using the Finnish and Dutch lignan databases, respectively. Methods Forty-two food groups known to contribute to the total lignan intake were selected and attributed a value for SECO and MAT from the Finnish lignan database (Fineli®) or for SECO, MAT, LARI, and PINO from the Dutch database. Total intake of lignans was estimated from food consumption data for adult men and women (19–79 years) from Denmark, Finland, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, and the contribution of aggregated food groups calculated using the Dutch lignin database. Results Mean dietary lignan intakes estimated using the Dutch database ranged from 1 to 2 mg/day, which was approximately four-fold higher than the intakes estimated from the Fineli® database. When LARI and PINO were included in the estimation of the total lignan intakes, cereals, grain products, vegetables, fruit and berries were the most important dietary sources of lignans. Conclusion Total lignin intake was approximately four-fold higher in the Dutch lignin database, which includes the lignin precursors LARI and PINO, compared to estimates based on the Finnish database based only on SECO and MAT. The main sources of lignans according to the Dutch database in the five countries studied were cereals and grain products, vegetables, fruit, berries, and beverages. PMID:23766759

ac electroosmotic pumping induced by noncontact external electrodes

PubMed Central

Wang, Shau-Chun; Chen, Hsiao-Ping; Chang, Hsueh-Chia

2007-01-01

Electroosmotic (EO) pumps based on dc electroosmosis is plagued by bubble generation and other electrochemical reactions at the electrodes at voltages beyond 1 V for electrolytes. These disadvantages limit their throughput and offset their portability advantage over mechanical syringe or pneumatic pumps. ac electroosmotic pumps at high frequency (>100 kHz) circumvent the bubble problem by inducing polarization and slip velocity on embedded electrodes,1 but they require complex electrode designs to produce a net flow. We report a new high-throughput ac EO pump design based on induced-polarization on the entire channel surface instead of just on the electrodes. Like dc EO pumps, our pump electrodes are outside of the load section and form a cm-long pump unit consisting of three circular reservoirs (3 mm in diameter) connected by a 1×1 mm channel. The field-induced polarization can produce an effective Zeta potential exceeding 1 V and an ac slip velocity estimated as 1 mm∕sec or higher, both one order of magnitude higher than earlier dc and ac pumps, giving rise to a maximum throughput of 1 μl∕sec. Polarization over the entire channel surface, quadratic scaling with respect to the field and high voltage at high frequency without electrode bubble generation are the reasons why the current pump is superior to earlier dc and ac EO pumps. PMID:19693362

Self-reported exposure to intimate partner violence among women and men in Sweden: results from a population-based survey

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Few population-based studies assessing IPV among randomly selected women and men have been conducted in Sweden. Hence, the aim of the current study was to explore self-reported exposure, associated factors, social and behavioural consequences of and reasons given for using psychological, physical and sexual intimate partner violence (IPV) among women and men residing in Sweden. Methods Cross-sectional postal survey of women and men aged 18–65 years. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with exposure to IPV. Results Past-year IPV exposure rates were similar in women and men; however, earlier-in-life estimates were higher in women. Poor to moderate social support, growing up with domestic violence and being single, widowed or divorced were associated with exposure to all forms of IPV in men and women. Women and men tended to report different social consequences of IPV. Conclusions Our finding that women reported greater exposure to IPV earlier-in-life but not during the past year suggests the importance of taking this time frame into account when assessing gender differences in IPV. In-depth, qualitative studies that consider masculinities, femininities power and gender orders would be beneficial for extending and deepening our understanding of the gendered matter of IPV. PMID:24034631

A light weight multichannel analyser and γ -ray spectroscopy system: Application to estimate ^{40}K content in some potassium salts and building materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venkataramanan, S.; Ajith kumar, B. P.; Kurup, Kiran K.; Varier, K. M.

2018-01-01

A γ -ray spectroscopy system based on a 1^' ' }× 1^' ' } NaI(Tl) detector and 1.5^' ' } photomultiplier tube has been developed at IUAC for teaching laboratory applications involving radioactive sources. Following along the lines of the Phoenix and Expeyes hardware developed in the laboratory earlier, a low-cost, light weight multichannel analyser also has been developed. Here the details about the same are presented. The detector-analyser system has been used as a part of the postgraduate curriculum for measuring ^{40}K content in some potassium salts and common building materials like brick, cement, concrete and sand.

Main magnetic field of Jupiter and its implications for future orbiter missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acuna, M. H.; Ness, N. F.

1975-01-01

A very strong planetary magnetic field and an enormous magnetosphere with extremely intense radiation belts exist at Jupiter. Pioneer 10 and 11 fly-bys confirmed and extended the earlier ground based estimates of many of these characteristics but left unanswered or added to the list of several important and poorly understood features: the source mechanism and location of decametric emissions, and the absorption effects by the natural satellites Amalthea, Io, Europa and Ganymede. High inclination orbits (exceeding 60 deg) with low periapses (less than 2 Jupiter radii) are required to map the radiation belts and main magnetic field of Jupiter accurately so as to permit full investigation of these and associated phenomena.

Black-hole production at LHC: Special features, problems, and expectations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Savina, M. V., E-mail: savina@cern.ch

2011-03-15

A brief survey of the present-day status of the problem of multidimensional-black-hole production at accelerators according to models featuring large extra dimensions is given. The respective production cross section and the Hawking temperature and decay rate are estimated versus model parameters. Possible flaws and assumptions whose accurate inclusion can reduce significantly the probability of blackhole production at accelerators in relation to earlier optimistic estimates are also discussed.

Early retreat of the Alaska Peninsula Glacier Complex and the implications for coastal migrations of First Americans

USGS Publications Warehouse

Misarti, Nicole; Finney, Bruce P.; Jordan, James W.; Maschner, Herbert D. G.; Addison, Jason A.; Shapley, Mark D.; Krumhardt, Andrea P.; Beget, James E.

2012-01-01

The debate over a coastal migration route for the First Americans revolves around two major points: seafaring technology, and a viable landscape and resource base. Three lake cores from Sanak Island in the western Gulf of Alaska yield the first radiocarbon ages from the continental shelf of the Northeast Pacific and record deglaciation nearly 17 ka BP (thousands of calendar years ago), much earlier than previous estimates based on extrapolated data from other sites outside the coastal corridor in the Gulf of Alaska. Pollen data suggest an arid, terrestrial ecosystem by 16.3 ka BP. Therefore glaciers would not have hindered the movement of humans along the southern edge of the Bering Land Bridge for two millennia before the first well-recognized “New World” archaeological sites were inhabited.

Temperature distribution in the Cerro Prieto geothermal field

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Castillo B, F.; Bermejo M, F.J.; Domiguez A, B.

1981-01-01

A series of temperature and pressure logs and flow rate measurements was compiled for each of the geothermal wells drilled to different reservoir depths between October 1979 and December 1980. Based on the valuable information obtained, a series of graphs showing the thermal characteristics of the reservoir were prepared. These graphs clearly show the temperature distribution resulting from the movement of fluids from the deep regions toward the higher zones of the reservoir, thus establishing more reliable parameters for locating new wells with better production zones. Updated information based on data from new deep wells drilled in the geothermal fieldmore » is presented here. This new information does not differ much from earlier estimates and theories. However, the influence of faulting and fracturing on the hydrothermal recharge of the geothermal reservoir is seen more clearly.« less

Zero-Extra-Dose PET Delayed Imaging with Data-Driven Attenuation Correction Estimation.

PubMed

Pang, Lifang; Zhu, Wentao; Dong, Yun; Lv, Yang; Shi, Hongcheng

2018-05-08

Delayed positron emission tomography (PET) imaging may improve sensitivity and specificity in lesion detection. We proposed a PET data-driven method to estimate the attenuation map (AM) for the delayed scan without an additional x-ray computed tomography (CT). An emission-attenuation-scatter joint estimation framework was developed. Several practical issues for clinical datasets were addressed. Particularly, the unknown scatter correction was incorporated in the joint estimation algorithm. The scaling problem was solved using prior information from the early CT scan. Fourteen patient datasets were added to evaluate the method. These patients went through two separate PET/CT scans. The delayed CT-based AM served as ground truth for the delayed scan. Standard uptake values (SUVmean and SUVmax) of lesion and normal tissue regions of interests (ROIs) in the early and delayed phase and the respective %DSUV (percentage change of SUVmean at two different time points) were analyzed, all with estimated and the true AM. Three radiologists participated in lesion detection tasks with images reconstructed with both AMs and rated scores for detectability. The mean relative difference of SUVmean in lesion and normal liver tissue were 3.30 and 6.69 %. The average lesion-to-background contrast (detectability) with delayed PET images using CT AM was 60 % higher than that of the earlier PET image, and was 64 % higher when using the data-based AM. %DSUV for lesions and liver backgrounds with CT-based AM were - 0.058 ± 0.25 and - 0.33 ± 0.08 while with data-based AM were - 0.00 ± 0.26 and - 0.28 ± 0.08. Only slight significance difference was found between using CT-based AM and using the data-based AM reconstruction delay phase on %DSUV of lesion. The scores associated with the two AMs matched well consistently. Our method may be used in delayed PET imaging, which allows no secondary CT radiation in delayed phase. The quantitative analysis for lesion detection purpose could be ensured.

Relationship between parent knowledge of child sleep, and child sleep practices and problems: A pilot study in a children's hospital cohort.

PubMed

McDowall, Philippa S; Elder, Dawn E; Campbell, Angela J

2017-08-01

To describe parent reports of sleep practices, and examine associations with parent knowledge of child sleep, and whether children's sleep practices differ between parents who underestimated, overestimated or accurately estimated children's sleep needs. Parents of children aged 2-12 years (n = 115) attending hospital inpatient or day wards were approached and asked to report child sleep routines, sleep problems, parent education, household income and parent knowledge of child sleep via questionnaire. Younger age was associated with earlier bedtimes and wake times, shorter sleep latencies, longer sleep durations and greater sleep problems (P < 0.05). Parents from higher income homes reported earlier bedtimes and wake times, shorter sleep latencies and fewer sleep problems (P < 0.05). Parents with higher education reported shorter sleep latencies (P < 0.05). Parents with greater knowledge about child sleep reported earlier weekday and weekend bedtimes (r s  ≥ 0.26) and wake times (r s  ≥ 0.21) and greater consistency between their child's weekend and weekday sleep routines (P < 0.05). In comparison with parents who correctly estimated their child's sleep needs: parents who underestimated reported later weekday bedtimes (on average, 46 min), and longer sleep latencies (17 min); parents who overestimated reported longer sleep latencies (22 min). These findings remained significant when controlling for child age (P < 0.05). Parents with increased sleep knowledge, higher incomes and higher levels of education were more likely to report earlier bedtimes, wake times and more consistent sleep routines for their children. © 2017 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

The poor stay thinner: stable socioeconomic gradients in BMI among women in lower- and middle-income countries123

PubMed Central

Neuman, Melissa; Finlay, Jocelyn E; Davey Smith, George

2011-01-01

Background: Recent studies have shown a strong positive association between individual BMI (in kg/m2) or overweight prevalence and socioeconomic status (SES) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, it is not clear whether this association is weakening or reversing over time. Objective: With the use of nationally representative data collected at 2 time points in 37 LMICs, we compared the associations of SES with BMI and of SES with overweight between the earlier surveys and the later surveys. Design: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative samples of 547,056 ever-married nonpregnant women aged 15–49 y: 208,570 women in the earlier round of surveys conducted between 1991 and 2003 and 338,486 women in the later round conducted between 1998 and 2008. We used linear and modified Poisson analyses with a country fixed effect to obtain a pooled estimate and a country-stratified analysis for country-specific estimates. Results: In adjusted models, BMI was 2.32 units higher (95% CI: 2.23, 2.41 units) among women in the wealthiest quintile compared with women in the poorest quintile in the earlier surveys and was 3.00 units higher (95% CI: 2.92, 3.07 units) in the later surveys. The association between BMI and wealth was positive in 37 countries in the earlier round of surveys and in 36 countries in the later round. Patterns were similar for overweight prevalence. Conclusion: The association between SES and BMI or overweight is positive in most LMICs and has not weakened over time. It appears that the burden of overweight is consistently greater among wealthier populations within LMICs. PMID:21993437

The chronological age estimation of third molar mineralization of Han population in southwestern China.

PubMed

Qing, Maofeng; Qiu, Lihua; Gao, Zhi; Bhandari, Kishor

2014-05-01

The purpose of the study was to estimate the chronology of third molar mineralization in Han population of southwestern China and find its unique characteristics so that it would provide a reference in several legal cases like forensic age estimation. The study used Demirjian's staging method to study 2192 orthopantomograms of 984 male and 1208 female subjects aged between 8 and 25 years. The statistical data was analyzed by Student's t test and ANOVA. The conclusions of the study are: (1) The chronological mineralization age of third molars of Han population in Southwestern China is similar to the Turkish and the Japanese, was earlier than the Austrian and Han of South China, but later than the Spanish. (2) The mineralization timing of the third molars between two sides in maxilla or mandible has no significant differences in the same gender group. (3) There is no significant difference in mineralization of third molars between male and female, except for tooth 48 in Demirjian's stage E. (4) The mineralization of third molar in maxilla is earlier than mandible. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, A.J.; Jones, L.M.

1998-01-01

For a decade, the US Geological Survey has used the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment scenario document to estimate the probability that earthquakes observed on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield will turn out to be foreshocks followed by the expected magnitude six mainshock. During this time, we have learned much about the seismogenic process at Parkfield, about the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock, and about the estimation of these types of probabilities. The probabilities for potential foreshocks at Parkfield are reexamined and revised in light of these advances. As part of this process, we have confirmed both the rate of foreshocks before strike-slip earthquakes in the San Andreas physiographic province and the uniform distribution of foreshocks with magnitude proposed by earlier studies. Compared to the earlier assessment, these new estimates of the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock are lower, our estimate of the rate of background seismicity is higher, and we find that the assumption that foreshocks at Parkfield occur in a unique way is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. While the exact numbers vary depending on the assumptions that are made, the new alert probabilities are lower than previously estimated. Considering the various assumptions and the statistical uncertainties in the input parameters, we also compute a plausible range for the probabilities. The range is large, partly due to the extra knowledge that exists for the Parkfield segment, making us question the usefulness of these numbers.

Lidar-derived estimate and uncertainty of carbon sink in successional phases of woody encroachment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sankey, Temuulen; Shrestha, Rupesh; Sankey, Joel B.; Hardegree, Stuart; Strand, Eva

2013-07-01

encroachment is a globally occurring phenomenon that contributes to the global carbon sink. The magnitude of this contribution needs to be estimated at regional and local scales to address uncertainties present in the global- and continental-scale estimates, and guide regional policy and management in balancing restoration activities, including removal of woody plants, with greenhouse gas mitigation goals. The objective of this study was to estimate carbon stored in various successional phases of woody encroachment. Using lidar measurements of individual trees, we present high-resolution estimates of aboveground carbon storage in juniper woodlands. Segmentation analysis of lidar point cloud data identified a total of 60,628 juniper tree crowns across four watersheds. Tree heights, canopy cover, and density derived from lidar were strongly correlated with field measurements of 2613 juniper stems measured in 85 plots (30 × 30 m). Aboveground total biomass of individual trees was estimated using a regression model with lidar-derived height and crown area as predictors (Adj. R2 = 0.76, p < 0.001, RMSE = 0.58 kg). The predicted mean aboveground woody carbon storage for the study area was 677 g/m2. Uncertainty in carbon storage estimates was examined with a Monte Carlo approach that addressed major error sources. Ranges predicted with uncertainty analysis in the mean, individual tree, aboveground woody C, and associated standard deviation were 0.35 - 143.6 kg and 0.5 - 1.25 kg, respectively. Later successional phases of woody encroachment had, on average, twice the aboveground carbon relative to earlier phases. Woody encroachment might be more successfully managed and balanced with carbon storage goals by identifying priority areas in earlier phases of encroachment where intensive treatments are most effective.

Lidar-derived estimate and uncertainty of carbon sink in successional phases of woody encroachment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sankey, Temuulen; Shrestha, Rupesh; Sankey, Joel B.; Hardgree, Stuart; Strand, Eva

2013-01-01

Woody encroachment is a globally occurring phenomenon that contributes to the global carbon sink. The magnitude of this contribution needs to be estimated at regional and local scales to address uncertainties present in the global- and continental-scale estimates, and guide regional policy and management in balancing restoration activities, including removal of woody plants, with greenhouse gas mitigation goals. The objective of this study was to estimate carbon stored in various successional phases of woody encroachment. Using lidar measurements of individual trees, we present high-resolution estimates of aboveground carbon storage in juniper woodlands. Segmentation analysis of lidar point cloud data identified a total of 60,628 juniper tree crowns across four watersheds. Tree heights, canopy cover, and density derived from lidar were strongly correlated with field measurements of 2613 juniper stems measured in 85 plots (30 × 30 m). Aboveground total biomass of individual trees was estimated using a regression model with lidar-derived height and crown area as predictors (Adj. R2 = 0.76, p 2. Uncertainty in carbon storage estimates was examined with a Monte Carlo approach that addressed major error sources. Ranges predicted with uncertainty analysis in the mean, individual tree, aboveground woody C, and associated standard deviation were 0.35 – 143.6 kg and 0.5 – 1.25 kg, respectively. Later successional phases of woody encroachment had, on average, twice the aboveground carbon relative to earlier phases. Woody encroachment might be more successfully managed and balanced with carbon storage goals by identifying priority areas in earlier phases of encroachment where intensive treatments are most effective.

The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance.

PubMed

Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John; Korenromp, Eline L

2017-01-01

Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco's national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612-37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0-3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000-2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal programmatic screening, which should help update and re-calibrate next trend estimations.

The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance

PubMed Central

Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John

2017-01-01

Background Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco’s national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Methods Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. Results In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612–37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0–3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000–2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Conclusions Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal programmatic screening, which should help update and re-calibrate next trend estimations. PMID:28837558

The Gravity Field, Orientation, and Ephemeris of Mercury from MESSENGER Observations After Three Years in Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazarico, Erwan M.; Genova, Antonio; Goossens, Sander; Lemoine, Gregory; Neumann, Gregory A.; Zuber, Maria T.; Smith, David E.; Solomon, Sean C.

2014-01-01

We have analyzed three years of radio tracking data from the MESSENGER spacecraft in orbit around Mercury and determined the gravity field, planetary orientation, and ephemeris of the innermost planet. With improvements in spatial coverage, force modeling, and data weighting, we refined an earlier global gravity field both in quality and resolution, and we present here a spherical harmonic solution to degree and order 50. In this field, termed HgM005, uncertainties in low-degree coefficients are reduced by an order of magnitude relative to the earlier global field, and we obtained a preliminary value of the tidal Love number k(sub 2) of 0.451+/-0.014. We also estimated Mercury's pole position, and we obtained an obliquity value of 2.06 +/- 0.16 arcmin, in good agreement with analysis of Earth-based radar observations. From our updated rotation period (58.646146 +/- 0.000011 days) and Mercury ephemeris, we verified experimentally the planet's 3: 2 spin-orbit resonance to greater accuracy than previously possible. We present a detailed analysis of the HgM005 covariance matrix, and we describe some near-circular frozen orbits around Mercury that could be advantageous for future exploration.

High levels of cynical distrust partly predict premature mortality in middle-aged to ageing men.

PubMed

Šmigelskas, Kastytis; Joffė, Roza; Jonynienė, Jolita; Julkunen, Juhani; Kauhanen, Jussi

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of cynical distrust on mortality in middle-aged and aging men. The analysis is based on Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease study, follow-up from 1984 to 2011. Sample consisted of 2682 men, aged 42-61 years at baseline. Data on mortality was provided by the National Death Registry, causes of death were classified by the National Center of Statistics of Finland. Cynical distrust was measured at baseline using Cynical Distrust Scale. Survival analyses were conducted using Cox regression models. In crude estimates after 28 years of follow-up, high cynical distrust was associated with 1.5-1.7 higher hazards for earlier death compared to low cynical distrust. Adjusted for conventional risk factors, high cynical distrust was significantly associated regarding CVD-free men and CVD mortality, while non-CVD mortality in study sample was consistently but not significantly associated. The risk effects were more expressed after 12-20 years rather than in earlier or later follow-up. To conclude, high cynical distrust associates with increased risk of CVD mortality in CVD-free men. The associations with non-CVD mortality are weaker and not reach statistical significance.

Early developmental characteristics and features of major depressive disorder among child psychiatric patients in Hungary.

PubMed

Kapornai, Krisztina; Gentzler, Amy L; Tepper, Ping; Kiss, Eniko; Mayer, László; Tamás, Zsuzsanna; Kovacs, Maria; Vetró, Agnes

2007-06-01

We investigate the relations of early atypical characteristics (perinatal problems, developmental delay, and difficult temperament) and onset-age (as well as severity of) first major depressive disorder (MDD) and first internalizing disorder in a clinical sample of depressed children in Hungary. Participants were 371 children (ages 7-14) with MDD, and their biological mothers, recruited through multiple clinical sites. Diagnoses (via DSM-IV criteria) and onset dates of disorders were finalized "best estimate" psychiatrists, and based on multiple information sources. Mothers provided developmental data in a structured interview. Difficult temperament predicted earlier onset of MDD and first internalizing disorder, but its effect was ameliorated if the family was intact during early childhood. Further, the importance of difficult temperament decreased as a function of time. Perinatal problems and developmental delay did not impact onset ages of disorders, and none of the early childhood characteristics associated with MDD episode severity. Children with MDD may have added disadvantage of earlier onset if they had a difficult temperament in infancy. Because early temperament mirrors physiological reactivity and regulatory capacity, it can affect various areas of functioning related to psychopathology. Early caregiver stability may attenuate some adverse effects of difficult infant temperament.

Estimation of population divergence times from non-overlapping genomic sequences: examples from dogs and wolves.

PubMed

Skoglund, Pontus; Götherström, Anders; Jakobsson, Mattias

2011-04-01

Despite recent technological advances in DNA sequencing, incomplete coverage remains to be an issue in population genomics, in particular for studies that include ancient samples. Here, we describe an approach to estimate population divergence times for non-overlapping sequence data that is based on probabilities of different genealogical topologies under a structured coalescent model. We show that the approach can be adapted to accommodate common problems such as sequencing errors and postmortem nucleotide misincorporations, and we use simulations to investigate biases involved with estimating genealogical topologies from empirical data. The approach relies on three reference genomes and should be particularly useful for future analysis of genomic data that comprise of nonoverlapping sets of sequences, potentially from different points in time. We applied the method to shotgun sequence data from an ancient wolf together with extant dogs and wolves and found striking resemblance to previously described fine-scale population structure among dog breeds. When comparing modern dogs to four geographically distinct wolves, we find that the divergence time between dogs and an Indian wolf is smallest, followed by the divergence times to a Chinese wolf and a Spanish wolf, and a relatively long divergence time to an Alaskan wolf, suggesting that the origin of modern dogs is somewhere in Eurasia, potentially southern Asia. We find that less than two-thirds of all loci in the boxer and poodle genomes are more similar to each other than to a modern gray wolf and that--assuming complete isolation without gene flow--the divergence time between gray wolves and modern European dogs extends to 3,500 generations before the present, corresponding to approximately 10,000 years ago (95% confidence interval [CI]: 9,000-13,000). We explicitly study the effect of gene flow between dogs and wolves on our estimates and show that a low rate of gene flow is compatible with an even earlier domestication date ∼30,000 years ago (95% CI: 15,000-90,000). This observation is in agreement with recent archaeological findings and indicates that human behavior necessary for domestication of wild animals could have appeared much earlier than the development of agriculture.

Performance of a high-sensitivity dedicated cardiac SPECT scanner for striatal uptake quantification in the brain based on analysis of projection data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Mi-Ae; Moore, Stephen C.; McQuaid, Sarah J.

Purpose: The authors have previously reported the advantages of high-sensitivity single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) systems for imaging structures located deep inside the brain. DaTscan (Isoflupane I-123) is a dopamine transporter (DaT) imaging agent that has shown potential for early detection of Parkinson disease (PD), as well as for monitoring progression of the disease. Realizing the full potential of DaTscan requires efficient estimation of striatal uptake from SPECT images. They have evaluated two SPECT systems, a conventional dual-head gamma camera with low-energy high-resolution collimators (conventional) and a dedicated high-sensitivity multidetector cardiac imaging system (dedicated) for imaging tasks related to PD.more » Methods: Cramer-Rao bounds (CRB) on precision of estimates of striatal and background activity concentrations were calculated from high-count, separate acquisitions of the compartments (right striata, left striata, background) of a striatal phantom. CRB on striatal and background activity concentration were calculated from essentially noise-free projection datasets, synthesized by scaling and summing the compartment projection datasets, for a range of total detected counts. They also calculated variances of estimates of specific-to-nonspecific binding ratios (BR) and asymmetry indices from these values using propagation of error analysis, as well as the precision of measuring changes in BR on the order of the average annual decline in early PD. Results: Under typical clinical conditions, the conventional camera detected 2 M counts while the dedicated camera detected 12 M counts. Assuming a normal BR of 5, the standard deviation of BR estimates was 0.042 and 0.021 for the conventional and dedicated system, respectively. For an 8% decrease to BR = 4.6, the signal-to-noise ratio were 6.8 (conventional) and 13.3 (dedicated); for a 5% decrease, they were 4.2 (conventional) and 8.3 (dedicated). Conclusions: This implies that PD can be detected earlier with the dedicated system than with the conventional system; therefore, earlier identification of PD progression should be possible with the high-sensitivity dedicated SPECT camera.« less

Earlier nesting by generalist predatory bird is associated with human responses to climate change.

PubMed

Smith, Shawn H; Steenhof, Karen; McClure, Christopher J W; Heath, Julie A

2017-01-01

Warming temperatures cause temporal changes in growing seasons and prey abundance that drive earlier breeding by birds, especially dietary specialists within homogeneous habitat. Less is known about how generalists respond to climate-associated shifts in growing seasons or prey phenology, which may occur at different rates across land cover types. We studied whether breeding phenology of a generalist predator, the American kestrel (Falco sparverius), was associated with shifts in growing seasons and, presumably, prey abundance, in a mosaic of non-irrigated shrub/grasslands and irrigated crops/pastures. We examined the relationship between remotely-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and abundance of small mammals that, with insects, constitute approximately 93% of kestrel diet biomass. We used NDVI to estimate the start of the growing season (SoGS) in irrigated and non-irrigated lands from 1992 to 2015 and tested whether either estimate of annual SoGS predicted the timing of kestrel nesting. Finally, we examined relationships among irrigated SoGS, weather and crop planting. NDVI was a useful proxy for kestrel prey because it predicted small mammal abundance and past studies showed that NDVI predicts insect abundance. NDVI-estimated SoGS advanced significantly in irrigated lands (β = -1·09 ± 0·30 SE) but not in non-irrigated lands (β = -0·57 ± 0·53). Average date of kestrel nesting advanced 15 days in the past 24 years and was positively associated with the SoGS in irrigated lands, but not the SoGS in non-irrigated lands. Advanced SoGS in irrigated lands was related to earlier planting of crops after relatively warm winters, which were more common in recent years. Despite different patterns of SoGS change between land cover types, kestrel nesting phenology shifted with earlier prey availability in irrigated lands. Kestrels may preferentially track prey in irrigated lands over non-irrigated lands because of higher quality prey on irrigated lands, or earlier prey abundance may release former constraints on other selective pressures to breed early, such as seasonal declines in fecundity or competition for high-quality mates. This is one of the first examples of an association between human adaptation to climate change and shifts in breeding phenology of wildlife. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Current-induced alternating reversed dual-echo-steady-state for joint estimation of tissue relaxation and electrical properties.

PubMed

Lee, Hyunyeol; Sohn, Chul-Ho; Park, Jaeseok

2017-07-01

To develop a current-induced, alternating reversed dual-echo-steady-state-based magnetic resonance electrical impedance tomography for joint estimation of tissue relaxation and electrical properties. The proposed method reverses the readout gradient configuration of conventional, in which steady-state-free-precession (SSFP)-ECHO is produced earlier than SSFP-free-induction-decay (FID) while alternating current pulses are applied in between the two SSFPs to secure high sensitivity of SSFP-FID to injection current. Additionally, alternating reversed dual-echo-steady-state signals are modulated by employing variable flip angles over two orthogonal injections of current pulses. Ratiometric signal models are analytically constructed, from which T 1 , T 2 , and current-induced B z are jointly estimated by solving a nonlinear inverse problem for conductivity reconstruction. Numerical simulations and experimental studies are performed to investigate the feasibility of the proposed method in estimating relaxation parameters and conductivity. The proposed method, if compared with conventional magnetic resonance electrical impedance tomography, enables rapid data acquisition and simultaneous estimation of T 1 , T 2 , and current-induced B z , yielding a comparable level of signal-to-noise ratio in the parameter estimates while retaining a relative conductivity contrast. We successfully demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed method in jointly estimating tissue relaxation parameters as well as conductivity distributions. It can be a promising, rapid imaging strategy for quantitative conductivity estimation. Magn Reson Med 78:107-120, 2017. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Novel applications of the temporal kernel method: Historical and future radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portmann, R. W.; Larson, E.; Solomon, S.; Murphy, D. M.

2017-12-01

We present a new estimate of the historical radiative forcing derived from the observed global mean surface temperature and a model derived kernel function. Current estimates of historical radiative forcing are usually derived from climate models. Despite large variability in these models, the multi-model mean tends to do a reasonable job of representing the Earth system and climate. One method of diagnosing the transient radiative forcing in these models requires model output of top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance and global mean temperature anomaly. It is difficult to apply this method to historical observations due to the lack of TOA radiative measurements before CERES. We apply the temporal kernel method (TKM) of calculating radiative forcing to the historical global mean temperature anomaly. This novel approach is compared against the current regression based methods using model outputs and shown to produce consistent forcing estimates giving confidence in the forcing derived from the historical temperature record. The derived TKM radiative forcing provides an estimate of the forcing time series that the average climate model needs to produce the observed temperature record. This forcing time series is found to be in good overall agreement with previous estimates but includes significant differences that will be discussed. The historical anthropogenic aerosol forcing is estimated as a residual from the TKM and found to be consistent with earlier moderate forcing estimates. In addition, this method is applied to future temperature projections to estimate the radiative forcing required to achieve those temperature goals, such as those set in the Paris agreement.

Dietary exposure to acrylamide from potato crisps to the Spanish population.

PubMed

Arribas-Lorenzo, G; Morales, F J

2009-03-01

Potato crisps are one of the food commodities that contribute most to overall dietary human exposure of acrylamide. This investigation has estimated the dietary exposure to acrylamide form potato crisps in the Spanish population. Sampling of potato crisps (n = 36) from 16 different producers were carried out in March 2008. An average level of 740 microg kg(-1) (ranging from 81 to 2622 microg kg(-1); minimum to maximum) and a median of 592 microg kg(-1) were obtained. Acrylamide levels in marketed potato crisps have been significantly reduced (nearly to 50%) compared with a previous sampling performed 4 years earlier. The observed signal value (90th percentile) was 1377 microg kg(-1) with 86% of the samples with acrylamide levels lower than 1000 microg kg(-1). Dietary exposure to acrylamide from potato crisp consumption in the total Spanish population was estimated to be 0.042 microg kg(-1) body weight day(-1) by using a deterministic approach based on the National consumption database. In a second study, dietary exposure (based on a 3-day food record) was determined to be 0.053 microg kg(-1) body weight day(-1) for the adult population (17-60 years) and 0.142 microg kg(-1) body weight day(-1) for children (7-12 years). The contribution of potato crisps to the estimated dietary acrylamide exposure of the Spanish population is moderate as compared with other European Member States.

Fatigue life estimation of a 1D aluminum beam under mode-I loading using the electromechanical impedance technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Yee Yan; Kiong Soh, Chee

2011-12-01

Structures in service are often subjected to fatigue loads. Cracks would develop and lead to failure if left unnoticed after a large number of cyclic loadings. Monitoring the process of fatigue crack propagation as well as estimating the remaining useful life of a structure is thus essential to prevent catastrophe while minimizing earlier-than-required replacement. The advent of smart materials such as piezo-impedance transducers (lead zirconate titanate, PZT) has ushered in a new era of structural health monitoring (SHM) based on non-destructive evaluation (NDE). This paper presents a series of investigative studies to evaluate the feasibility of fatigue crack monitoring and estimation of remaining useful life using the electromechanical impedance (EMI) technique employing a PZT transducer. Experimental tests were conducted to study the ability of the EMI technique in monitoring fatigue crack in 1D lab-sized aluminum beams. The experimental results prove that the EMI technique is very sensitive to fatigue crack propagation. A proof-of-concept semi-analytical damage model for fatigue life estimation has been developed by incorporating the linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) theory into the finite element (FE) model. The prediction of the model matches closely with the experiment, suggesting the possibility of replacing costly experiments in future.

Mass and volume contributions to twentieth-century global sea level rise.

PubMed

Miller, Laury; Douglas, Bruce C

2004-03-25

The rate of twentieth-century global sea level rise and its causes are the subjects of intense controversy. Most direct estimates from tide gauges give 1.5-2.0 mm yr(-1), whereas indirect estimates based on the two processes responsible for global sea level rise, namely mass and volume change, fall far below this range. Estimates of the volume increase due to ocean warming give a rate of about 0.5 mm yr(-1) (ref. 8) and the rate due to mass increase, primarily from the melting of continental ice, is thought to be even smaller. Therefore, either the tide gauge estimates are too high, as has been suggested recently, or one (or both) of the mass and volume estimates is too low. Here we present an analysis of sea level measurements at tide gauges combined with observations of temperature and salinity in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans close to the gauges. We find that gauge-determined rates of sea level rise, which encompass both mass and volume changes, are two to three times higher than the rates due to volume change derived from temperature and salinity data. Our analysis supports earlier studies that put the twentieth-century rate in the 1.5-2.0 mm yr(-1) range, but more importantly it suggests that mass increase plays a larger role than ocean warming in twentieth-century global sea level rise.

Trends and uncertainties in budburst projections of Norway spruce in Northern Europe.

PubMed

Olsson, Cecilia; Olin, Stefan; Lindström, Johan; Jönsson, Anna Maria

2017-12-01

Budburst is regulated by temperature conditions, and a warming climate is associated with earlier budburst. A range of phenology models has been developed to assess climate change effects, and they tend to produce different results. This is mainly caused by different model representations of tree physiology processes, selection of observational data for model parameterization, and selection of climate model data to generate future projections. In this study, we applied (i) Bayesian inference to estimate model parameter values to address uncertainties associated with selection of observational data, (ii) selection of climate model data representative of a larger dataset, and (iii) ensembles modeling over multiple initial conditions, model classes, model parameterizations, and boundary conditions to generate future projections and uncertainty estimates. The ensemble projection indicated that the budburst of Norway spruce in northern Europe will on average take place 10.2 ± 3.7 days earlier in 2051-2080 than in 1971-2000, given climate conditions corresponding to RCP 8.5. Three provenances were assessed separately (one early and two late), and the projections indicated that the relationship among provenance will remain also in a warmer climate. Structurally complex models were more likely to fail predicting budburst for some combinations of site and year than simple models. However, they contributed to the overall picture of current understanding of climate impacts on tree phenology by capturing additional aspects of temperature response, for example, chilling. Model parameterizations based on single sites were more likely to result in model failure than parameterizations based on multiple sites, highlighting that the model parameterization is sensitive to initial conditions and may not perform well under other climate conditions, whether the change is due to a shift in space or over time. By addressing a range of uncertainties, this study showed that ensemble modeling provides a more robust impact assessment than would a single phenology model run.

Revisiting the 1872 Owens Valley, California, Earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hough, S.E.; Hutton, K.

2008-01-01

The 26 March 1872 Owens Valley earthquake is among the largest historical earthquakes in California. The felt area and maximum fault displacements have long been regarded as comparable to, if not greater than, those of the great San Andreas fault earthquakes of 1857 and 1906, but mapped surface ruptures of the latter two events were 2-3 times longer than that inferred for the 1872 rupture. The preferred magnitude estimate of the Owens Valley earthquake has thus been 7.4, based largely on the geological evidence. Reinterpreting macroseismic accounts of the Owens Valley earthquake, we infer generally lower intensity values than those estimated in earlier studies. Nonetheless, as recognized in the early twentieth century, the effects of this earthquake were still generally more dramatic at regional distances than the macroseismic effects from the 1906 earthquake, with light damage to masonry buildings at (nearest-fault) distances as large as 400 km. Macroseismic observations thus suggest a magnitude greater than that of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, which appears to be at odds with geological observations. However, while the mapped rupture length of the Owens Valley earthquake is relatively low, the average slip was high. The surface rupture was also complex and extended over multiple fault segments. It was first mapped in detail over a century after the earthquake occurred, and recent evidence suggests it might have been longer than earlier studies indicated. Our preferred magnitude estimate is Mw 7.8-7.9, values that we show are consistent with the geological observations. The results of our study suggest that either the Owens Valley earthquake was larger than the 1906 San Francisco earthquake or that, by virtue of source properties and/or propagation effects, it produced systematically higher ground motions at regional distances. The latter possibility implies that some large earthquakes in California will generate significantly larger ground motions than San Andreas fault events of comparable magnitude.

Observers for Systems with Nonlinearities Satisfying an Incremental Quadratic Inequality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Ahmet Behcet; Corless, Martin

2004-01-01

We consider the problem of state estimation for nonlinear time-varying systems whose nonlinearities satisfy an incremental quadratic inequality. These observer results unifies earlier results in the literature; and extend it to some additional classes of nonlinearities. Observers are presented which guarantee that the state estimation error exponentially converges to zero. Observer design involves solving linear matrix inequalities for the observer gain matrices. Results are illustrated by application to a simple model of an underwater.

Improving Software Engineering on NASA Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crumbley, Tim; Kelly, John C.

2010-01-01

Software Engineering Initiative: Reduces risk of software failure -Increases mission safety. More predictable software cost estimates and delivery schedules. Smarter buyer of contracted out software. More defects found and removed earlier. Reduces duplication of efforts between projects. Increases ability to meet the challenges of evolving software technology.

Risk Prediction Models for Other Cancers or Multiple Sites

Cancer.gov

Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing other multiple cancers over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

The cortical representation of the speech envelope is earlier for audiovisual speech than audio speech.

PubMed

Crosse, Michael J; Lalor, Edmund C

2014-04-01

Visual speech can greatly enhance a listener's comprehension of auditory speech when they are presented simultaneously. Efforts to determine the neural underpinnings of this phenomenon have been hampered by the limited temporal resolution of hemodynamic imaging and the fact that EEG and magnetoencephalographic data are usually analyzed in response to simple, discrete stimuli. Recent research has shown that neuronal activity in human auditory cortex tracks the envelope of natural speech. Here, we exploit this finding by estimating a linear forward-mapping between the speech envelope and EEG data and show that the latency at which the envelope of natural speech is represented in cortex is shortened by >10 ms when continuous audiovisual speech is presented compared with audio-only speech. In addition, we use a reverse-mapping approach to reconstruct an estimate of the speech stimulus from the EEG data and, by comparing the bimodal estimate with the sum of the unimodal estimates, find no evidence of any nonlinear additive effects in the audiovisual speech condition. These findings point to an underlying mechanism that could account for enhanced comprehension during audiovisual speech. Specifically, we hypothesize that low-level acoustic features that are temporally coherent with the preceding visual stream may be synthesized into a speech object at an earlier latency, which may provide an extended period of low-level processing before extraction of semantic information.

Lack of evidence for an association between the frequency of mutants or translocations in circulating lymphocytes and exposure to radon gas in the home.

PubMed

Cole, J; Green, M H; Bridges, B A; Waugh, A P; Beare, D M; Henshaw, D; Last, R; Liu, Y; Cortopassi, G

1996-01-01

Radon measurements in the living room and main bedroom of 41 houses in the town of Street, Somerset, England have been made. Exposure levels, weighted using the formula of the UK National Radiological Protection Board, of 19-484 Bq m-3 (about half > 100 Bq m-3) were found. Blood samples were obtained from a total of 66 occupants in these homes, and the frequency of genetic alterations in lymphocytes was estimated using two different end points. Gene mutations at the hypoxanthine guanine phosphoribosyl transferase locus were determined in T lymphocytes for 65 subjects using a clonal assay, and the frequency of the BCL-2 t(14;18) translocation, a chromosomal event associated with leukemia/lymphoma, was estimated in lymphocytes using a polymerase chain reaction-based technique for 64 subjects. In neither case was a significant correlation with radon levels in the home found, in contrast to our earlier observation with a smaller series.

State dependence of noise correlations in macaque primary visual cortex

PubMed Central

Ecker, Alexander S.; Berens, Philipp; Cotton, R. James; Subramaniyan, Manivannan; Denfield, George H.; Cadwell, Cathryn R.; Smirnakis, Stelios M.; Bethge, Matthias; Tolias, Andreas S.

2014-01-01

Shared, trial-to-trial variability in neuronal populations has a strong impact on the accuracy of information processing in the brain. Estimates of the level of such noise correlations are diverse, ranging from 0.01 to 0.4, with little consensus on which factors account for these differences. Here we addressed one important factor that varied across studies, asking how anesthesia affects the population activity structure in macaque primary visual cortex. We found that under opioid anesthesia, activity was dominated by strong coordinated fluctuations on a timescale of 1–2 Hz, which were mostly absent in awake, fixating monkeys. Accounting for these global fluctuations markedly reduced correlations under anesthesia, matching those observed during wakefulness and reconciling earlier studies conducted under anesthesia and in awake animals. Our results show that internal signals, such as brain state transitions under anesthesia, can induce noise correlations, but can also be estimated and accounted for based on neuronal population activity. PMID:24698278

State dependence of noise correlations in macaque primary visual cortex.

PubMed

Ecker, Alexander S; Berens, Philipp; Cotton, R James; Subramaniyan, Manivannan; Denfield, George H; Cadwell, Cathryn R; Smirnakis, Stelios M; Bethge, Matthias; Tolias, Andreas S

2014-04-02

Shared, trial-to-trial variability in neuronal populations has a strong impact on the accuracy of information processing in the brain. Estimates of the level of such noise correlations are diverse, ranging from 0.01 to 0.4, with little consensus on which factors account for these differences. Here we addressed one important factor that varied across studies, asking how anesthesia affects the population activity structure in macaque primary visual cortex. We found that under opioid anesthesia, activity was dominated by strong coordinated fluctuations on a timescale of 1-2 Hz, which were mostly absent in awake, fixating monkeys. Accounting for these global fluctuations markedly reduced correlations under anesthesia, matching those observed during wakefulness and reconciling earlier studies conducted under anesthesia and in awake animals. Our results show that internal signals, such as brain state transitions under anesthesia, can induce noise correlations but can also be estimated and accounted for based on neuronal population activity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the Motion of Agents across Terrain with Obstacles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsov, A. V.

2018-01-01

The paper is devoted to finding the time optimal route of an agent travelling across a region from a given source point to a given target point. At each point of this region, a maximum allowed speed is specified. This speed limit may vary in time. The continuous statement of this problem and the case when the agent travels on a grid with square cells are considered. In the latter case, the time is also discrete, and the number of admissible directions of motion at each point in time is eight. The existence of an optimal solution of this problem is proved, and estimates of the approximate solution obtained on the grid are obtained. It is found that decreasing the size of cells below a certain limit does not further improve the approximation. These results can be used to estimate the quasi-optimal trajectory of the agent motion across the rugged terrain produced by an algorithm based on a cellular automaton that was earlier developed by the author.

Sex- and Size-Related Patterns of Carrion Visitation in Necrodes littoralis (Coleoptera: Silphidae) and Creophilus maxillosus (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae).

PubMed

Mądra-Bielewicz, Anna; Frątczak-Łagiewska, Katarzyna; Matuszewski, Szymon

2017-09-01

The estimation of postmortem interval (PMI) based on successional patterns of adult insects is largely limited, due to the lack of potential PMI markers. Sex and size of adult insects could be easily used for such estimation. In this study, sex- and size-related patterns of carrion attendance by adult insects were analyzed in Necrodes littoralis (Coleoptera: Silphidae) and Creophilus maxillosus (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae). For both species, abundance of males and females changed similarly during decomposition. A slightly female-biased sex ratio was recorded in N. littoralis. Females of N. littoralis started visiting carcasses, on average, one day earlier than males. There was a rise in size of males of N. littoralis at the end of decomposition, whereas for females of both species and males of C. maxillosus, no size-related patterns of carrion visitation were found. Current results demonstrate that size and sex of adult carrion beetles are poor indicators of PMI. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

New best estimates for radionuclide solid-liquid distribution coefficients in soils. Part 2: naturally occurring radionuclides.

PubMed

Vandenhove, H; Gil-García, C; Rigol, A; Vidal, M

2009-09-01

Predicting the transfer of radionuclides in the environment for normal release, accidental, disposal or remediation scenarios in order to assess exposure requires the availability of an important number of generic parameter values. One of the key parameters in environmental assessment is the solid liquid distribution coefficient, K(d), which is used to predict radionuclide-soil interaction and subsequent radionuclide transport in the soil column. This article presents a review of K(d) values for uranium, radium, lead, polonium and thorium based on an extensive literature survey, including recent publications. The K(d) estimates were presented per soil groups defined by their texture and organic matter content (Sand, Loam, Clay and Organic), although the texture class seemed not to significantly affect K(d). Where relevant, other K(d) classification systems are proposed and correlations with soil parameters are highlighted. The K(d) values obtained in this compilation are compared with earlier review data.

Comparative analysis of genetic diversity among Indian populations of Scirpophaga incertulas by ISSR-PCR and RAPD-PCR.

PubMed

Kumar, L S; Sawant, A S; Gupta, V S; Ranjekar, P K

2001-10-01

Genetic variation between 28 Indian populations of the rice pest, Scirpophaga incertulas was evaluated using inter-simple sequence repeats (ISSR)-PCR assay. Nine SSR primers gave rise to 79 amplification products of which 67 were polymorphic. A dendrogram constructed from this data indicates that there is no geographical bias to the clustering and that gene flow between populations appears to be relatively unrestricted, substantiating our earlier conclusion based on the RAPD (random amplified polymorphic DNA) data. The dendrograms obtained using each of these marker systems were poorly correlated with each other as determined by Mantel's test for matrix correlation. Estimates of expected heterozygosity and marker index for each of these marker systems suggests that both these marker systems are equally efficient in determining polymorphisms. Matrix correlation analyses suggest that reliable estimates of genetic variation among the S. incertulas pest populations can be obtained by using RAPDs alone or in combination with ISSRs, but ISSRs alone cannot be used for this purpose.

New estimates of nitrous oxide emissions from biomass burning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cofer, W. R., III; Levine, J. S.; Winstead, E. L.; Stocks, B. J.

1991-01-01

The recent discovery of an artifact producing increased levels of N2O in combustion gas samples collected and stored in grab bottles before chemical analysis has resulted in the downgrading of fossil-fuel combustion and the questioning of biomass burning as important sources of N2O. As almost all reported analyses of N2O produced from biomass burning have involved essentially the same collection and analysis protocols as used in the fossil-fuel studies, this source of N2O must also be reexamined. Here, measurements of N2O made over a large prescribed fire using a near real-time in situ measurement technique are reported and compared with measurements of N2O from simultaneously collected grab-bottle samples. The results from 27 small laboratory biomass test fires are also used to help clarify the validity of earlier assessments. It is concluded that biomass burning contributes about seven percent of atmospheric N2O, as opposed to earlier estimates of several times this value.

Software Reliability 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallace, Dolores R.

2003-01-01

In FY01 we learned that hardware reliability models need substantial changes to account for differences in software, thus making software reliability measurements more effective, accurate, and easier to apply. These reliability models are generally based on familiar distributions or parametric methods. An obvious question is 'What new statistical and probability models can be developed using non-parametric and distribution-free methods instead of the traditional parametric method?" Two approaches to software reliability engineering appear somewhat promising. The first study, begin in FY01, is based in hardware reliability, a very well established science that has many aspects that can be applied to software. This research effort has investigated mathematical aspects of hardware reliability and has identified those applicable to software. Currently the research effort is applying and testing these approaches to software reliability measurement, These parametric models require much project data that may be difficult to apply and interpret. Projects at GSFC are often complex in both technology and schedules. Assessing and estimating reliability of the final system is extremely difficult when various subsystems are tested and completed long before others. Parametric and distribution free techniques may offer a new and accurate way of modeling failure time and other project data to provide earlier and more accurate estimates of system reliability.

Sexual orientation and substance abuse treatment utilization in the United States: results from a national survey.

PubMed

McCabe, Sean Esteban; West, Brady T; Hughes, Tonda L; Boyd, Carol J

2013-01-01

This study examined substance abuse treatment utilization across three dimensions of sexual orientation (identity, attraction, and behavior) in a large national sample of adults in the United States. Prevalence estimates were based on data collected from the 2004-2005 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. The sample consisted of 34,653 adults 20 years and older, and represented a population that was 52% women, 71% White, 12% Hispanic, 11% African American, 4% Asian, and 2% other race/ethnicities. An estimated 2% of the target population self-identified as lesbian, gay or bisexual; 4% reported same-sex sexual behavior, and 6% reported same-sex sexual attraction. Sexual minorities, especially women, had a greater likelihood of lifetime substance use disorders and earlier age of drinking onset. The majority of respondents with substance use disorders were untreated and lifetime substance abuse treatment utilization differed based on sexual orientation. Sexual minorities were found to have more extensive family histories of substance abuse problems. The findings indicate the underutilization of substance abuse treatment among all adults, and highlight some important factors to consider when working with sexual minorities. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

G. CANAVAN

Space Based Interceptor (SBI) have ranges that are adequate to address rogue ICBMs. They are not overly sensitive to 30-60 s delay times. Current technologies would support boost phase intercept with about 150 interceptors. Higher acceleration and velocity could reduce than number by about a factor of 3 at the cost of heavier and more expensive Kinetic Kill Vehicles (KKVs). 6g SBI would reduce optimal constellation costs by about 35%; 8g SBI would reduce them another 20%. Interceptor ranges fall rapidly with theater missile range. Constellations increase significantly for ranges under 3,000 km, even with advanced interceptor technology. For distributedmore » launches, these estimates recover earlier strategic scalings, which demonstrate the improved absentee ratio for larger or multiple launch areas. Constellations increase with the number of missiles and the number of interceptors launched at each. The economic estimates above suggest that two SBI per missile with a modest midcourse underlay is appropriate. The SBI KKV technology would appear to be common for space- and surface-based boost phase systems, and could have synergisms with improved midcourse intercept and discrimination systems. While advanced technology could be helpful in reducing costs, particularly for short range theater missiles, current technology appears adequate for pressing rogue ICBM, accidental, and unauthorized launches.« less

[Retrospective Cytogenetic Dose Evaluation. II. Computer Data Processing in Persons Irradiated in Different Radiation Accidents].

PubMed

Nugis, V Yu; Khvostunov, I K; Goloub, E V; Kozlova, M G; Nadejinal, N M; Galstian, I A

2015-01-01

The method for retrospective dose assessment based on the analysis of cell distribution by the number of dicentrics and unstable aberrations using a special computer program was earlier developed based on the data about the persons irradiated as a result of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. This method was applied for the same purpose for data processing of repeated cytogenetic studies of the patients exposed to γ-, γ-β- or γ-neutron radiation in various situations. As a whole, this group was followed up in more distant periods (17-50 years) after exposure than Chernobyl patients (up to 25 years). The use for retrospective dose assessment of the multiple regression equations obtained for the Chernobyl cohort showed that the equation, which includes computer recovered estimate of the dose and the time elapsed after irradiation, was generally unsatisfactory (r = 0.069 at p = 0.599). Similar equations with recovered estimate of the dose and frequency of abnormal chromosomes in a distant period or with all three parameters as variables gave better results (r = 0.686 at p = 0.000000001 and r = 0.542 at p = 0.000008, respectively).

Comparison of in vitro tests for evaluation of passive transfer of immunoglobulins in giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis).

PubMed

Miller, M; Coville, B; Abou-Madi, N; Olsen, J

1999-03-01

Serum samples from captive giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis) were tested to assess passive transfer of immunoglobulins using in vitro methods developed for domestic ruminants. Estimated immunoglobulin levels were compared using five tests (protein electrophoresis, total protein refractometry, zinc sulfate turbidity, glutaraldehyde coagulation, and sodium sulfite turbidity). A linear relationship was observed among total protein, gamma globulin (electrophoretic measurement), and immunoglobulin level based on spectrophotometric measurement of zinc sulfate turbidity. Nonquantitative assays also demonstrated statistical correlation with the quantitative methods. Using criteria similar to those established for domestic species, cutoff values for failure of passive transfer (FPT) were established for these tests in neonatal giraffe: 1) total protein <6.0 g/dl; 2) gamma globulin < 0.5 g/dl; 3) estimated immunoglobulin level < 1,000 mg/dl (zinc sulfate turbidity); 4) glutaraldehyde coagulation test negative; or 5) no visually detectable turbidity in 16% sodium sulfite or Bova-S negative. Retrospective examination of the medical histories showed a strong statistical association between animals designated as having FPT and those that were removed from their dams based on clinical assessment to be hand-reared. Application of these tests in the field should allow earlier detection and intervention for FPT in neonatal giraffe.

Associations Between Maternal Pregravid Obesity and Gestational Diabetes and the Timing of Pubarche in Daughters

PubMed Central

Kubo, Ai; Ferrara, Assiamira; Laurent, Cecile A.; Windham, Gayle C.; Greenspan, Louise C.; Deardorff, Julianna; Hiatt, Robert A.; Quesenberry, Charles P.; Kushi, Lawrence H.

2016-01-01

Abstract We investigated whether in utero exposure to maternal pregravid obesity and/or gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) was associated with early puberty in girls. We used data from a longitudinal study of 421 mother-daughter pairs enrolled in an integrated health services organization, Kaiser Permanente Northern California (2005–2012). Girls aged 6–8 years were followed annually through ages 12–14 years. Onset of puberty was assessed using study clinic-based Tanner staging. We examined associations of self-reported pregravid obesity and maternal GDM with timing of the daughter's transition to pubertal maturation stage 2 or above for development of breasts and pubic hair, using accelerated failure time regression models with interval censoring to estimate time ratios and hazard ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Maternal obesity (pregravid body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2) ≥30) was associated with a daughter's earlier transition to breast and pubic hair stage 2+ in comparison with girls whose mothers had pregravid BMI <25. These associations were attenuated and not statistically significant after adjustment for covariates. Girls whose mothers had both pregravid BMI ≥25 and GDM were at higher risk of an earlier transition to pubic hair stage 2+ than those whose mothers had neither condition (adjusted time ratio = 0.89, 95% confidence interval: 0.83, 0.96; hazard ratio = 2.97, 95% confidence interval: 1.52, 5.83). These findings suggest that exposure to maternal obesity and hyperglycemia places girls at higher risk of earlier pubarche. PMID:27268032

AFLP-based genetic diversity and its comparison with diversity based on SSR, SAMPL, and phenotypic traits in bread wheat.

PubMed

Roy, J K; Lakshmikumaran, M S; Balyan, H S; Gupta, P K

2004-02-01

Data on AFLP (eight primer pairs) and 14 phenotypic traits, collected on 55 elite and exotic bread wheat genotypes, were utilized for estimations of genetic diversity. We earlier used these 55 genotypes for a similar study using SSRs and SAMPL. As many as 615 scorable AFLP bands visualized included 287 (46.6%) polymorphic bands. The phenotypic traits included yield and its component traits, as well as physiomorphological traits like flag leaf area. Dendrograms were prepared using cluster analysis based on Jaccard's similarity coefficients in case of AFLP and on squared Euclidean distances in case of phenotypic traits. PCA was conducted using AFLP data and a PCA plot was prepared, which was compared with clustering patterns in two dendrograms, one each for AFLP and phenotypic traits. The results were also compared with published results that included studies conducted elsewhere using entirely different wheat germplasm and our own SSR and SAMPL studies based on the same 55 genotypes used in the present study. It was shown that molecular markers are superior to phenotypic traits and that AFLP and SAMPL are superior to other molecular markers for estimation of genetic diversity. On the basis of AFLP analysis and keeping in view the yield performance and stability, a pair of genotypes (E3876 and E677) was recommended for hybridization in order to develop superior cultivars.

A Role for Memory in Prospective Timing informs Timing in Prospective Memory

PubMed Central

Waldum, Emily R; Sahakyan, Lili

2014-01-01

Time-based prospective memory (TBPM) tasks require the estimation of time in passing – known as prospective timing. Prospective timing is said to depend on an attentionally-driven internal clock mechanism, and is thought to be unaffected by memory for interval information (for reviews see, Block, Hancock, & Zakay, 2010; Block & Zakay, 1997). A prospective timing task that required a verbal estimate following the entire interval (Experiment 1) and a TBPM task that required production of a target response during the interval (Experiment 2) were used to test an alternative view that episodic memory does influence prospective timing. In both experiments, participants performed an ongoing lexical decision task of fixed duration while a varying number of songs were played in the background. Experiment 1 results revealed that verbal time estimates became longer the more songs participants remembered from the interval, suggesting that memory for interval information influences prospective time estimates. In Experiment 2, participants who were asked to perform the TBPM task without the aid of an external clock made their target responses earlier as the number of songs increased, indicating that prospective estimates of elapsed time increased as more songs were experienced. For participants who had access to a clock, changes in clock-checking coincided with the occurrence of song boundaries, indicating that participants used both song information and clock information to estimate time. Finally, ongoing task performance and verbal reports in both experiments further substantiate a role for episodic memory in prospective timing. PMID:22984950

Evaluation of non-stationarity of floods in the Northeastern and Upper Midwest United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, N.; Palmer, R. N.

2017-12-01

Climate change is likely to impact precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt in the Northeastern and Upper Midwest Unites States, ultimately affecting the quantity and seasonal distribution of streamflow. Such information is crucial for flood protection polices for example for regional flood frequency analysis. The objective of this study is to analyze seasonality and magnitude of long-term daily annual maximum streamflow (AMF) records and its changes for 158 sites in Northeastern and Upper Midwest Unites States. Temporal trends were analyzed based on two 30-year blocks (1951-1980 and 1981-2010) of AMF. Seasonality is assessed based on nonparametric directional/circular statistical method that allows for an adaptive estimation of seasonal density. The results for temporal change in seasonality showed mixed pattern/trend across the stations. While for majority of the stations, the distribution of AMF timing is strongly unimodal (concentrated around Spring season) for the earlier time period, the strength in the modes have gotten weaker during the recent time period for a number of stations along the coastal states indicating the emergence of multiple modes and change in seasonality therein. Assessment of the temporal change in magnitude of AMF based on the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test shows that majority of the stations do not show significant increasing or decreasing trend for either time period. It is also observed that comparatively more stations show increasing trends in magnitude based on AMF from earlier time period and most of these stations are coastal sites concentrated in the southeastern part of the region. Our study focused on both seasonality and magnitude of AMF has important implications for flood management and mitigation.

Linked versus unlinked estimates of mortality and length of life by education and marital status: evidence from the first record linkage study in Lithuania.

PubMed

Shkolnikov, Vladimir M; Jasilionis, Domantas; Andreev, Evgeny M; Jdanov, Dmitri A; Stankuniene, Vladislava; Ambrozaitiene, Dalia

2007-04-01

Earlier studies have found large and increasing with time differences in mortality by education and marital status in post-Soviet countries. Their results are based on independent tabulations of population and deaths counts (unlinked data). The present study provides the first census-linked estimates of group-specific mortality and the first comparison between census-linked and unlinked mortality estimates for a post-Soviet country. The study is based on a data set linking 140,000 deaths occurring in 2001-2004 in Lithuania with the population census of 2001. The same socio-demographic information about the deceased is available from both the census and death records. Cross-tabulations and Poisson regressions are used to compare linked and unlinked data. Linked and unlinked estimates of life expectancies and mortality rate ratios are calculated with standard life table techniques and Poisson regressions. For the two socio-demographic variables under study, the values from the death records partly differ from those from the census records. The deviations are especially significant for education, with 72-73%, 66-67%, and 82-84% matching for higher education, secondary education, and lower education, respectively. For marital status, deviations are less frequent. For education and marital status, unlinked estimates tend to overstate mortality in disadvantaged groups and they understate mortality in advantaged groups. The differences in inter-group life expectancy and the mortality rate ratios thus are significantly overestimated in the unlinked data. Socio-demographic differences in mortality previously observed in Lithuania and possibly other post-Soviet countries are overestimated. The growth in inequalities over the 1990s is real but might be overstated. The results of this study confirm the existence of large and widening health inequalities but call for better data.

Financial impact of adopting implantable loop recorder diagnostic for unexplained syncope compared with conventional diagnostic pathway in Portugal.

PubMed

Providência, Rui; Candeias, Rui; Morais, Carlos; Reis, Hipólito; Elvas, Luís; Sanfins, Vitor; Farinha, Sara; Eggington, Simon; Tsintzos, Stelios

2014-05-06

To estimate the short- and long-term financial impact of early referral for implantable loop recorder diagnostic (ILR) versus conventional diagnostic pathway (CDP) in the management of unexplained syncope (US) in the Portuguese National Health Service (PNHS). A Markov model was developed to estimate the expected number of hospital admissions due to US and its respective financial impact in patients implanted with ILR versus CDP. The average cost of a syncope episode admission was estimated based on Portuguese cost data and landmark papers. The financial impact of ILR adoption was estimated for a total of 197 patients with US, based on the number of syncope admissions per year in the PNHS. Sensitivity analysis was performed to take into account the effect of uncertainty in the input parameters (hazard ratio of death; number of syncope events per year; probabilities and unit costs of each diagnostic test; probability of trauma and yield of diagnosis) over three-year and lifetime horizons. The average cost of a syncope event was estimated to be between 1,760€ and 2,800€. Over a lifetime horizon, the total discounted costs of hospital admissions and syncope diagnosis for the entire cohort were 23% lower amongst patients in the ILR group compared with the CDP group (1,204,621€ for ILR, versus 1,571,332€ for CDP). The utilization of ILR leads to an earlier diagnosis and lower number of syncope hospital admissions and investigations, thus allowing significant cost offsets in the Portuguese setting. The result is robust to changes in the input parameter values, and cost savings become more pronounced over time.

A primary care Web-based Intervention Modeling Experiment replicated behavior changes seen in earlier paper-based experiment.

PubMed

Treweek, Shaun; Francis, Jill J; Bonetti, Debbie; Barnett, Karen; Eccles, Martin P; Hudson, Jemma; Jones, Claire; Pitts, Nigel B; Ricketts, Ian W; Sullivan, Frank; Weal, Mark; MacLennan, Graeme

2016-12-01

Intervention Modeling Experiments (IMEs) are a way of developing and testing behavior change interventions before a trial. We aimed to test this methodology in a Web-based IME that replicated the trial component of an earlier, paper-based IME. Three-arm, Web-based randomized evaluation of two interventions (persuasive communication and action plan) and a "no intervention" comparator. The interventions were designed to reduce the number of antibiotic prescriptions in the management of uncomplicated upper respiratory tract infection. General practitioners (GPs) were invited to complete an online questionnaire and eight clinical scenarios where an antibiotic might be considered. One hundred twenty-nine GPs completed the questionnaire. GPs receiving the persuasive communication did not prescribe an antibiotic in 0.70 more scenarios (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.17-1.24) than those in the control arm. For the action plan, GPs did not prescribe an antibiotic in 0.63 (95% CI = 0.11-1.15) more scenarios than those in the control arm. Unlike the earlier IME, behavioral intention was unaffected by the interventions; this may be due to a smaller sample size than intended. A Web-based IME largely replicated the findings of an earlier paper-based study, providing some grounds for confidence in the IME methodology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does Sentinel multi sensor data offer synergy in Improving Accuracy of Aboveground Biomass Estimate of Dense Tropical Forest? - Utility of Decision Tree Based Machine Learning Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, S. M.; Behera, M. D.

2017-12-01

Forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is an important factor for preparation of global policy making decisions to tackle the impact of climate change. Several previous studies has concluded that remote sensing methods are more suitable for estimating forest biomass on regional scale. Among all available remote sensing data and methods, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data in combination with decision tree based machine learning algorithms has shown better promise in estimating higher biomass values. There aren't many studies done for biomass estimation of dense Indian tropical forests with high biomass density. In this study aboveground biomass was estimated for two major tree species, Sal (Shorea robusta) and Teak (Tectona grandis), of Katerniaghat Wildlife Sanctuary, a tropical forest situated in northern India. Biomass was estimated by combining C-band SAR data from Sentinel-1A satellite, vegetation indices produced using Sentinel-2A data and ground inventory plots. Along with SAR backscatter value, SAR texture images were also used as input as earlier studies had found that image texture has a correlation with vegetation biomass. Decision tree based nonlinear machine learning algorithms were used in place of parametric regression models for establishing relationship between fields measured values and remotely sensed parameters. Using random forest model with a combination of vegetation indices with SAR backscatter as predictor variables shows best result for Sal forest, with a coefficient of determination value of 0.71 and a RMSE value of 105.027 t/ha. In teak forest also best result can be found in the same combination but for stochastic gradient boosted model with a coefficient of determination value of 0.6 and a RMSE value of 79.45 t/ha. These results are mostly better than the results of other studies done for similar kind of forests. This study shows that Sentinel series satellite data has exceptional capabilities in estimating dense forest AGB and machine learning algorithms are better means to do so than parametric regression models.

Traumatic brain injury history is associated with an earlier age of dementia onset in autopsy-confirmed Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Schaffert, Jeff; LoBue, Christian; White, Charles L; Chiang, Hsueh-Sheng; Didehbani, Nyaz; Lacritz, Laura; Rossetti, Heidi; Dieppa, Marisara; Hart, John; Cullum, C Munro

2018-05-01

To evaluate whether a history of traumatic brain injury (TBI) with reported loss of consciousness (LOC) is a risk factor for earlier onset of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in an autopsy-confirmed sample. Data from 2,133 participants with autopsy-confirmed AD (i.e., at least Braak neurofibrillary tangle stages III to VI and CERAD neuritic plaque score moderate to frequent) were obtained from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC). Participants were categorized by presence/absence of self-reported remote (i.e., >1 year prior to their first Alzheimer's Disease Center visit) history of TBI with LOC (TBI+ vs. TBI-). Analyses of Covariance (ANCOVA) controlling for sex, education, and race compared groups on clinician-estimated age of symptom onset and age of diagnosis. Average age of onset was 2.34 years earlier (p = .01) for the TBI+ group (n = 194) versus the TBI- group (n = 1900). Dementia was diagnosed on average 2.83 years earlier (p = .002) in the TBI+ group (n = 197) versus the TBI- group (n = 1936). Using more stringent neuropathological criteria (i.e., Braak stages V-VI and CERAD frequent), both age of AD onset and diagnosis were 3.6 years earlier in the TBI+ group (both p's < .001). History of TBI with reported LOC appears to be a risk factor for earlier AD onset. This is the first study to use autopsy-confirmed cases, supporting previous investigations that used clinical criteria for the diagnosis of AD. Further investigation as to possible underlying mechanisms of association is needed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Validating genomic reliabilities and gains from phenotypic updates

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Reliability can be validated from the variance of the difference of earlier and later estimated breeding values as a fraction of the genetic variance. This new method avoids using squared correlations that can be biased downward by selection. Published genomic reliabilities of U.S. young bulls agree...

AgRISTARS: Supporting research. Classification of corn: Badhwar profile similarity technique. [us corn belt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Austin, W. W. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

The same software programs used to classify spring wheat are applied to the classification of corn in 26 segments in the corn belt. Numerical results of the acreage estimation are given. Potential problem areas defined in an earlier application are examined.

Daily Light Exposure Patterns Reveal Phase and Period of the Human Circadian Clock.

PubMed

Woelders, Tom; Beersma, Domien G M; Gordijn, Marijke C M; Hut, Roelof A; Wams, Emma J

2017-06-01

Light is the most potent time cue that synchronizes (entrains) the circadian pacemaker to the 24-h solar cycle. This entrainment process is an interplay between an individual's daily light perception and intrinsic pacemaker period under free-running conditions. Establishing individual estimates of circadian phase and period can be time-consuming. We show that circadian phase can be accurately predicted (SD = 1.1 h for dim light melatonin onset, DLMO) using 9 days of ambulatory light and activity data as an input to Kronauer's limit-cycle model for the human circadian system. This approach also yields an estimated circadian period of 24.2 h (SD = 0.2 h), with longer periods resulting in later DLMOs. A larger amount of daylight exposure resulted in an earlier DLMO. Individuals with a long circadian period also showed shorter intervals between DLMO and sleep timing. When a field-based estimation of tau can be validated under laboratory studies in a wide variety of individuals, the proposed methods may prove to be essential tools for individualized chronotherapy and light treatment for shift work and jetlag applications. These methods may improve our understanding of fundamental properties of human circadian rhythms under daily living conditions.

Daily Light Exposure Patterns Reveal Phase and Period of the Human Circadian Clock

PubMed Central

Woelders, Tom; Beersma, Domien G. M.; Gordijn, Marijke C. M.; Hut, Roelof A.; Wams, Emma J.

2017-01-01

Light is the most potent time cue that synchronizes (entrains) the circadian pacemaker to the 24-h solar cycle. This entrainment process is an interplay between an individual’s daily light perception and intrinsic pacemaker period under free-running conditions. Establishing individual estimates of circadian phase and period can be time-consuming. We show that circadian phase can be accurately predicted (SD = 1.1 h for dim light melatonin onset, DLMO) using 9 days of ambulatory light and activity data as an input to Kronauer’s limit-cycle model for the human circadian system. This approach also yields an estimated circadian period of 24.2 h (SD = 0.2 h), with longer periods resulting in later DLMOs. A larger amount of daylight exposure resulted in an earlier DLMO. Individuals with a long circadian period also showed shorter intervals between DLMO and sleep timing. When a field-based estimation of tau can be validated under laboratory studies in a wide variety of individuals, the proposed methods may prove to be essential tools for individualized chronotherapy and light treatment for shift work and jetlag applications. These methods may improve our understanding of fundamental properties of human circadian rhythms under daily living conditions. PMID:28452285

Evaluation of a chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) bioenergetics model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, Charles P.; O'Connor, Daniel V.; Chernyak, Sergei M.; Rediske, Richard R.; O'Keefe, James P.

2004-01-01

We evaluated the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in both the laboratory and the field. Chinook salmon in laboratory tanks were fed alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), the predominant food of chinook salmon in Lake Michigan. Food consumption and growth by chinook salmon during the experiment were measured. To estimate the efficiency with which chinook salmon retain polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) from their food in the laboratory, PCB concentrations of the alewife and of the chinook salmon at both the beginning and end of the experiment were determined. Based on our laboratory evaluation, the bioenergetics model was furnishing unbiased estimates of food consumption by chinook salmon. Additionally, from the laboratory experiment, we calculated that chinook salmon retained 75% of the PCBs contained within their food. In an earlier study, assimilation rate of PCBs to chinook salmon from their food in Lake Michigan was estimated at 53%, thereby suggesting that the model was substantially overestimating food consumption by chinook salmon in Lake Michigan. However, we concluded that field performance of the model could not be accurately assessed because PCB assimilation efficiency is dependent on feeding rate, and feeding rate of chinook salmon was likely much lower in our laboratory tanks than in Lake Michigan.

Improved methods for dewarping images in convex mirrors in fine art: applications to van Eyck and Parmigianino

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usami, Yumi; Stork, David G.; Fujiki, Jun; Hino, Hideitsu; Akaho, Shotaro; Murata, Noboru

2011-03-01

We derive and demonstrate new methods for dewarping images depicted in convex mirrors in artwork and for estimating the three-dimensional shapes of the mirrors themselves. Previous methods were based on the assumption that mirrors were spherical or paraboloidal, an assumption unlikely to hold for hand-blown glass spheres used in early Renaissance art, such as Johannes van Eyck's Portrait of Giovanni (?) Arnolfini and his wife (1434) and Robert Campin's Portrait of St. John the Baptist and Heinrich von Werl (1438). Our methods are more general than such previous methods in that we assume merely that the mirror is radially symmetric and that there are straight lines (or colinear points) in the actual source scene. We express the mirror's shape as a mathematical series and pose the image dewarping task as that of estimating the coefficients in the series expansion. Central to our method is the plumbline principle: that the optimal coefficients are those that dewarp the mirror image so as to straighten lines that correspond to straight lines in the source scene. We solve for these coefficients algebraically through principal component analysis, PCA. Our method relies on a global figure of merit to balance warping errors throughout the image and it thereby reduces a reliance on the somewhat subjective criterion used in earlier methods. Our estimation can be applied to separate image annuli, which is appropriate if the mirror shape is irregular. Once we have found the optimal image dewarping, we compute the mirror shape by solving a differential equation based on the estimated dewarping function. We demonstrate our methods on the Arnolfini mirror and reveal a dewarped image superior to those found in prior work|an image noticeably more rectilinear throughout and having a more coherent geometrical perspective and vanishing points. Moreover, we find the mirror deviated from spherical and paraboloidal shape; this implies that it would have been useless as a concave projection mirror, as has been claimed. Our dewarped image can be compared to the geometry in the full Arnolfini painting; the geometrical agreement strongly suggests that van Eyck worked from an actual room, not, as has been suggested by some art historians, a "fictive" room of his imagination. We apply our method to other mirrors depicted in art, such as Parmigianino's Self-portrait in a convex mirror and compare our results to those from earlier computer graphics simulations.

Costs of Alcohol-Involved Crashes, United States, 2010

PubMed Central

Zaloshnja, Eduard; Miller, Ted R.; Blincoe, Lawrence J.

2013-01-01

This paper estimates total and unit costs of alcohol-involved crashes in the U.S. in 2010. With methods from earlier studies, we estimated costs per crash survivor by MAIS, body part, and fracture/dislocation involvement. We multiplied them times 2010 crash incidence estimates from NHTSA data sets, with adjustments for underreporting of crashes and their alcohol involvement. The unit costs are lifetime costs discounted at 3%. To develop medical costs, we combined 2008 Health Care Utilization Program national data for hospitalizations and ED visits of crash survivors with prior estimates of post-discharge costs. Productivity losses drew on Current Population Survey and American Time Use Survey data. Quality of life losses came from a 2011 AAAM paper and property damage from insurance data. We built a hybrid incidence file comprised of 2008–2010 and 1984–86 NHTSA crash surveillance data, weighted with 2010 General Estimates System weights. Fatality data came from the 2010 FARS. An estimated 12% of 2010 crashes but only 0.9% of miles driven were alcohol-involved (BAC > .05). Alcohol-involved crashes cost an estimated $125 billion. That is 22.5% of the societal cost of all crashes. Alcohol-attributable crashes accounted for an estimated 22.5% of US auto liability insurance payments. Alcohol-involved crashes cost $0.86 per drink. Above the US BAC limit of .08, crash costs were $8.37 per mile driven; 1 in 788 trips resulted in a crash and 1 in 1,016 trips in an arrest. Unit costs for crash survivors by severity are higher for impaired driving than for other crashes. That suggests national aggregate impaired driving cost estimates in other countries are substantial underestimates if they are based on all-crash unit costs. PMID:24406941

GBA manager: an online tool for querying low-complexity regions in proteins.

PubMed

Bandyopadhyay, Nirmalya; Kahveci, Tamer

2010-01-01

Abstract We developed GBA Manager, an online software that facilitates the Graph-Based Algorithm (GBA) we proposed in our earlier work. GBA identifies the low-complexity regions (LCR) of protein sequences. GBA exploits a similarity matrix, such as BLOSUM62, to compute the complexity of the subsequences of the input protein sequence. It uses a graph-based algorithm to accurately compute the regions that have low complexities. GBA Manager is a user friendly web-service that enables online querying of protein sequences using GBA. In addition to querying capabilities of the existing GBA algorithm, GBA Manager computes the p-values of the LCR identified. The p-value gives an estimate of the possibility that the region appears by chance. GBA Manager presents the output in three different understandable formats. GBA Manager is freely accessible at http://bioinformatics.cise.ufl.edu/GBA/GBA.htm .

Phase and amplitude analysis in time-frequency space--application to voluntary finger movement.

PubMed

Ginter, J; Blinowska, K J; Kamiński, M; Durka, P J

2001-09-30

Two methods operating in time-frequency space were applied to analysis of EEG activity accompanying voluntary finger movements. The first one, based on matching pursuit approach provided high-resolution distributions of power in time-frequency space. The phenomena of event related desynchronization (ERD) and synchronization (ERS) were investigated without the need of band-pass filtering. Time evolution of mu- and beta-components was observed in a detailed way. The second method was based on a multichannel autoregressive model (MVAR) adapted for investigation of short-time changes in EEG signal. The direction and spectral content of the EEG activity propagation was estimated by means of short-time directed transfer function (SDTF). The evidence of 'cross-talk' between different areas of motor and sensory cortex was found. The earlier known phenomena, connected with voluntary movements, were confirmed and a new evidence concerning focal ERD/surround ERS and beta activity post-movement synchronization was found.

Size, skills, and suffrage: Motivated distortions in perceived formidability of political leaders

PubMed Central

Blaker, Nancy M.; Pollet, Thomas V.

2017-01-01

Research shows that perception of physical size and status are positively associated. The current study was developed to replicate and extend earlier research on height perceptions of political leaders, indicating that supporters perceive their leaders as taller than non-supporters do, and winners are perceived as taller after the elections, while losers are perceived as shorter after the elections (winner/loser effects). Individuals use greater height and strength as indications of greater physical formidability. We hypothesized that in-group leaders’ height and strength, but not weight, would be overestimated more compared to out-group leaders’, and that this status-size association is not only driven by dominance, but also by prestige. We also tested whether previously found gender effects in estimates were due to using one’s own height as an anchor, and we used an improved methodological approach by relying on multiple measurements of physical formidability and a within-subject design for testing winner/loser effects. The results of a two-part longitudinal study (self-selected sample via voting advice website; NWave1 = 2,011; NWave2 = 322) suggest that estimated physical formidability of political leaders is affected by motivated perception, as prestige was positively associated with estimated formidability, and in-group leaders were estimated more formidable than out-group leaders. We conclude that distortions in judged formidability related to social status are the result of motivated social perception in order to promote group functioning and leadership. Although we did not replicate a winner-effect (greater estimations of formidability after winning the elections), we did find some evidence for a loser-effect. Earlier suggestions that men make larger estimations than women because of their own larger body size are not supported. Implications for theory and future research are discussed. PMID:29267275

Why are You Late?: Investigating the Role of Time Management in Time-Based Prospective Memory

PubMed Central

Waldum, Emily R; McDaniel, Mark A.

2016-01-01

Time-based prospective memory tasks (TBPM) are those that are to be performed at a specific future time. Contrary to typical laboratory TBPM tasks (e.g., “hit the “z” key every 5 minutes”), many real-world TBPM tasks require more complex time-management processes. For instance to attend an appointment on time, one must estimate the duration of the drive to the appointment and then utilize this estimate to create and execute a secondary TBPM intention (e.g., “I need to start driving by 1:30 to make my 2:00 appointment on time”). Future under- and overestimates of drive time can lead to inefficient TBPM performance with the former lending to missed appointments and the latter to long stints in the waiting room. Despite the common occurrence of complex TBPM tasks in everyday life, to date, no studies have investigated how components of time management, including time estimation, affect behavior in such complex TBPM tasks. Therefore, the current study aimed to investigate timing biases in both older and younger adults and further to determine how such biases along with additional time management components including planning and plan fidelity influence complex TBPM performance. Results suggest for the first time that younger and older adults do not always utilize similar timing strategies, and as a result, can produce differential timing biases under the exact same environmental conditions. These timing biases, in turn, play a vital role in how efficiently both younger and older adults perform a later TBPM task that requires them to utilize their earlier time estimate. PMID:27336325

Common genetic and environmental contributions to post-traumatic stress disorder and alcohol dependence in young women.

PubMed

Sartor, C E; McCutcheon, V V; Pommer, N E; Nelson, E C; Grant, J D; Duncan, A E; Waldron, M; Bucholz, K K; Madden, P A F; Heath, A C

2011-07-01

The few genetically informative studies to examine post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and alcohol dependence (AD), all of which are based on a male veteran sample, suggest that the co-morbidity between PTSD and AD may be attributable in part to overlapping genetic influences, but this issue has yet to be addressed in females.MethodData were derived from an all-female twin sample (n=3768) ranging in age from 18 to 29 years. A trivariate genetic model that included trauma exposure as a separate phenotype was fitted to estimate genetic and environmental contributions to PTSD and the degree to which they overlap with those that contribute to AD, after accounting for potential confounding effects of heritable influences on trauma exposure. Additive genetic influences (A) accounted for 72% of the variance in PTSD; individual-specific environmental (E) factors accounted for the remainder. An AE model also provided the best fit for AD, for which heritability was estimated to be 71%. The genetic correlation between PTSD and AD was 0.54. The heritability estimate for PTSD in our sample is higher than estimates reported in earlier studies based almost exclusively on an all-male sample in which combat exposure was the precipitating traumatic event. However, our findings are consistent with the absence of evidence for shared environmental influences on PTSD and, most importantly, the substantial overlap in genetic influences on PTSD and AD reported in these investigations. Additional research addressing potential distinctions by gender in the relative contributions of genetic and environmental influences on PTSD is merited.

Relationship of crop radiance to alfalfa agronomic values

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tucker, C. J.; Elgin, J. H., Jr.; Mcmurtrey, J. E., III

1980-01-01

Red and photographic infrared spectral data of alfalfa were collected at the time of the third and fourth cuttings using a hand-held radiometer for the earlier alfalfa cutting. Significant linear and non-linear correlation coefficients were found between the spectral variables and plant height, biomass, forage water content, and estimated canopy cover. For the alfalfa of the later cutting, which had experienced a period of severe drought stress which limited growth, the spectral variables were found to be highly correlated with the estimated drought scores.

Connected, disconnected and strange quark contributions to HVP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bijnens, Johan; Relefors, Johan

2016-11-01

We calculate all neutral vector two-point functions in Chiral Perturbation Theory (ChPT) to two-loop order and use these to estimate the ratio of disconnected to connected contributions as well as contributions involving the strange quark. We extend the ratio of -1/10 derived earlier in two flavour ChPT at one-loop order to a large part of the higher order contributions and discuss corrections to it. Our final estimate of the ratio disconnected to connected is negative and a few % in magnitude.

An analytical computation of magnetic field generated from a cylinder ferromagnet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taniguchi, Tomohiro

2018-04-01

An analytical formulation to compute a magnetic field generated from an uniformly magnetized cylinder ferromagnet is developed. Exact solutions of the magnetic field generated from the magnetization pointing in an arbitrary direction are derived, which are applicable both inside and outside the ferromagnet. The validities of the present formulas are confirmed by comparing them with demagnetization coefficients estimated in earlier works. The results will be useful for designing practical applications, such as high-density magnetic recording and microwave generators, where nanostructured ferromagnets are coupled to each other through the dipole interactions and show cooperative phenomena such as synchronization. As an example, the magnetic field generated from a spin torque oscillator for magnetic recording based on microwave assisted magnetization reversal is studied.

Modal analysis using a Fourier analyzer, curve-fitting, and modal tuning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Craig, R. R., Jr.; Chung, Y. T.

1981-01-01

The proposed modal test program differs from single-input methods in that preliminary data may be acquired using multiple inputs, and modal tuning procedures may be employed to define closely spaced frquency modes more accurately or to make use of frequency response functions (FRF's) which are based on several input locations. In some respects the proposed modal test proram resembles earlier sine-sweep and sine-dwell testing in that broadband FRF's are acquired using several input locations, and tuning is employed to refine the modal parameter estimates. The major tasks performed in the proposed modal test program are outlined. Data acquisition and FFT processing, curve fitting, and modal tuning phases are described and examples are given to illustrate and evaluate them.

Urban seismic risk assessment: statistical repair cost data and probable structural losses based on damage scenario—correlation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eleftheriadou, Anastasia K.; Baltzopoulou, Aikaterini D.; Karabinis, Athanasios I.

2016-06-01

The current seismic risk assessment is based on two discrete approaches, actual and probable, validating afterwards the produced results. In the first part of this research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the 7/9/1999 Parnitha (Athens) earthquake. The actual evaluated seismic risk is afterwards compared to the estimated probable structural losses, which is presented in the second part of the paper, based on a damage scenario in the referring earthquake. The applied damage scenario is based on recently developed damage probability matrices (DPMs) from Athens (Greece) damage database. The seismic risk estimation refers to 750,085 buildings situated in the extended urban region of Athens. The building exposure is categorized in five typical structural types and represents 18.80 % of the entire building stock in Greece. The last information is provided by the National Statistics Service of Greece (NSSG) according to the 2000-2001 census. The seismic input is characterized by the ratio, a g/ a o, where a g is the regional peak ground acceleration (PGA) which is evaluated from the earlier estimated research macroseismic intensities, and a o is the PGA according to the hazard map of the 2003 Greek Seismic Code. Finally, the collected investigated financial data derived from different National Services responsible for the post-earthquake crisis management concerning the repair/strengthening or replacement costs or other categories of costs for the rehabilitation of earthquake victims (construction and function of settlements for earthquake homeless, rent supports, demolitions, shorings) are used to determine the final total seismic risk factor.

Longevity and Depreciation of Audiovisual Equipment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Post, Richard

1987-01-01

Describes results of survey of media service directors at public universities in Ohio to determine the expected longevity of audiovisual equipment. Use of the Delphi technique for estimates is explained, results are compared with an earlier survey done in 1977, and use of spreadsheet software to calculate depreciation is discussed. (LRW)

Michigan's forests, 2004: statistics and quality assurance

Treesearch

Scott A. Pugh; Mark H. Hansen; Gary Brand; Ronald E. McRoberts

2010-01-01

The first annual inventory of Michigan's forests was completed in 2004 after 18,916 plots were selected and 10,355 forested plots were visited. This report includes detailed information on forest inventory methods, quality of estimates, and additional tables. An earlier publication presented analyses of the inventoried data (Pugh et al. 2009).

Logit Estimation of a Gravity Model of the College Enrollment Decision.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leppel, Karen

1993-01-01

A study investigated the factors influencing students' decisions about attending a college to which they had been admitted. Logit analysis confirmed gravity model predictions that geographic distance and student ability would most influence the enrollment decision and found other variables, although affecting earlier stages of decision making, did…

Fraternity Membership & Frequent Drinking. NBER Working Paper No. 16291

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeSimone, Jeffrey S.

2010-01-01

Reinforcing earlier findings from other data, college senior fraternity/sorority members are more likely to consume alcohol frequently. Large reductions in estimates upon controlling for time spent partying, and to a lesser extent cigarette use and intramural sports involvement, suggest considerable unobserved heterogeneity in the relationship.…

Media Violence, Antisocial Behavior, and the Social Consequences of Small Effects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosenthal, Robert

1986-01-01

Discusses research on media violence and antisocial behavior. Provides quantitative estimates for predicting: (1) adult antisocial behavior from childhood antisocial behavior; (2) current antisocial behavior from current exposure to media violence; (3) subsequent antisocial behavior from earlier exposure to media violence; and (4) how social…

Bullying and PTSD Symptoms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Idsoe, Thormod; Dyregrov, Atle; Idsoe, Ella Cosmovici

2012-01-01

PTSD symptoms related to school bullying have rarely been investigated, and never in national samples. We used data from a national survey to investigate this among students from grades 8 and 9 (n = 963). The prevalence estimates of exposure to bullying were within the range of earlier research findings. Multinomial logistic regression showed that…

Genomic evaluation of age at first calving

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

From their time of birth until their first lactation, dairy heifers incur management, health and feed expenses while not producing milk. Much effort has been made to estimate optimal ages of first calving (AFC) for cows to reduce these costs and ensure that animals are productive earlier in life. In...

Design of PREVENCION: a population-based study of cardiovascular disease in Peru.

PubMed

Medina-Lezama, Josefina; Chirinos, Julio A; Zea Díaz, Humberto; Morey, Oscar; Bolanos, Juan F; Munoz-Atahualpa, Edgar; Chirinos-Pacheco, Julio

2005-11-02

Latin America is undergoing the epidemiologic transition that occurred earlier in developed countries, and is likely to face a gigantic epidemic of heart disease in the next few years unless urgent action is taken. The first essential component of any effective cardiovascular disease (CVD) control program is to establish reliable estimates of cardiovascular disease-related morbidity and mortality. However, such data from population-based studies in Latin America are still lacking. In this paper, we present the design and operation of PREVENCION (Estudio Peruano de Prevalencia de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares, for Peruvian Study of the Prevalence of Cardiovascular diseases). PREVENCION is an ongoing population-based study on a representative sample of the civilian non-institutionalized population of the second largest city in Peru. Its population is comparable to the rest of the Peruvian urban population and closely resembles other Latin American populations in countries such as Bolivia and Ecuador. Our study will contribute to the enormous task of understanding and preventing CVD in Latin America.

Comparative cost-effectiveness of policy instruments for reducing the global burden of alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use.

PubMed

Chisholm, Dan; Doran, Chris; Shibuya, Kenji; Rehm, Jürgen

2006-11-01

Alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use together pose a formidable challenge to international public health. Building on earlier estimates of the demonstrated burden of alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use at the global level, this review aims to consider the comparative cost-effectiveness of evidence-based interventions for reducing the global burden of disease from these three risk factors. Although the number of published cost-effectiveness studies in the addictions field is now extensive (reviewed briefly here) there are a series of practical problems in using them for sector-wide decision making, including methodological heterogeneity, differences in analytical reference point and the specificity of findings to a particular context. In response to these limitations, a more generalised form of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is proposed, which enables like-with-like comparisons of the relative efficiency of preventive or individual-based strategies to be made, not only within but also across diseases or their risk factors. The application of generalised CEA to a range of personal and non-personal interventions for reducing the burden of addictive substances is described. While such a development avoids many of the obstacles that have plagued earlier attempts and in so doing opens up new opportunities to address important policy questions, there remain a number of caveats to population-level analysis of this kind, particularly when conducted at the global level. These issues are the subject of the final section of this review.

Mineralization of mandibular third molars can estimate chronological age--Brazilian indices.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Fernando Toledo; Capelozza, Ana Lúcia Álvares; Lauris, José Roberto Pereira; de Bullen, Izabel Regina Fischer Rubira

2012-06-10

Forensic age estimation is an important element of anthropological research, as it produces one of the primary sources of data that researchers use to establish the identity of a person living or the identity of unknown bodily remains. The aim of this study was to determine if the chronology of third molar mineralization could be an accurate indicator of estimated age in a sample Brazilian population. If so, mineralization could determine the probability of an individual being 18 years or older. The study evaluated 407 panoramic radiographs of males and females from the past 5 years in order to assess the mineralization status of the mandibular third molars. The evaluation was carried out using an adaptation of Demirjian's system. The results indicated a strong correlation between chronological age and the mineralization of the mandibular third molars. The results indicated that modern Brazilian generation tends to demonstrate an earlier mandibular third molar mineralization than older Brazilian generation and people of other nationalities. Males reached developmental stages slightly earlier than females, but statistically significant differences between the sex were not found. The probability that an individual with third molar mineralization stage H had reached an age of 18 years or older was 96.8-98.6% for males and females, respectively. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Moho topography, ranges and folds of Tibet by analysis of global gravity models and GOCE data

PubMed Central

Shin, Young Hong; Shum, C.K.; Braitenberg, Carla; Lee, Sang Mook; Na, Sung -Ho; Choi, Kwang Sun; Hsu, Houtse; Park, Young-Sue; Lim, Mutaek

2015-01-01

The determination of the crustal structure is essential in geophysics, as it gives insight into the geohistory, tectonic environment, geohazard mitigation, etc. Here we present the latest advance on three-dimensional modeling representing the Tibetan Mohorovičić discontinuity (topography and ranges) and its deformation (fold), revealed by analyzing gravity data from GOCE mission. Our study shows noticeable advances in estimated Tibetan Moho model which is superior to the results using the earlier gravity models prior to GOCE. The higher quality gravity field of GOCE is reflected in the Moho solution: we find that the Moho is deeper than 65 km, which is twice the normal continental crust beneath most of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau, while the deepest Moho, up to 82 km, is located in western Tibet. The amplitude of the Moho fold is estimated to be ranging from −9 km to 9 km with a standard deviation of ~2 km. The improved GOCE gravity derived Moho signals reveal a clear directionality of the Moho ranges and Moho fold structure, orthogonal to deformation rates observed by GPS. This geophysical feature, clearly more evident than the ones estimated using earlier gravity models, reveals that it is the result of the large compressional tectonic process. PMID:26114224

The influence of climatic conditions on the transmission dynamics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The role of demographic factors, climatic conditions, school cycles, and connectivity patterns in shaping the spatio-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza is not clearly understood. Here we analyzed the spatial, age and temporal evolution of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile, a southern hemisphere country covering a long and narrow strip comprising latitudes 17°S to 56°S. Methods We analyzed the dissemination patterns of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic across 15 regions of Chile based on daily hospitalizations for severe acute respiratory disease and laboratory confirmed A/H1N1 influenza infection from 01-May to 31-December, 2009. We explored the association between timing of pandemic onset and peak pandemic activity and several geographical and demographic indicators, school vacations, climatic factors, and international passengers. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) based on the growth rate of the exponential pandemic phase by date of symptoms onset, estimated using maximum likelihood methods. Results While earlier pandemic onset was associated with larger population size, there was no association with connectivity, demographic, school or climatic factors. In contrast, there was a latitudinal gradient in peak pandemic timing, representing a 16-39-day lag in disease activity from the southern regions relative to the northernmost region (P < 0.001). Geographical differences in latitude of Chilean regions, maximum temperature and specific humidity explained 68.5% of the variability in peak timing (P = 0.01). In addition, there was a decreasing gradient in reproduction number from south to north Chile (P < 0.0001). The regional mean R estimates were 1.6-2.0, 1.3-1.5, and 1.2-1.3 for southern, central and northern regions, respectively, which were not affected by the winter vacation period. Conclusions There was a lag in the period of most intense 2009 pandemic influenza activity following a South to North traveling pattern across regions of Chile, significantly associated with geographical differences in minimum temperature and specific humidity. The latitudinal gradient in timing of pandemic activity was accompanied by a gradient in reproduction number (P < 0.0001). Intensified surveillance strategies in colder and drier southern regions could lead to earlier detection of pandemic influenza viruses and improved control outcomes. PMID:23148597

The relationship between treatment access and spending in a managed behavioral health organization.

PubMed

Cuffel, B J; Regier, D

2001-07-01

This study replicated an earlier study that showed a linear relationship between level of treatment access and behavioral health spending. The study reported here examined whether this relationship varies by important characteristics of behavioral health plans. Access rates and total spending over a five- to seven-year period were computed for 30 behavioral health plans. Regression analysis was used to estimate the relationship between access and spending and to examine whether it varied with the characteristics of benefit plans. A linear relationship was found between level of treatment access and behavioral health spending. However, the relationship closely paralleled that found in the earlier study only for benefit plans with an employee assistance program linked to the managed behavioral health organization and for plans that do not allow the use of out-of-network providers. The results of this study replicate those of the earlier study in showing a linear relationship between access and spending, but they suggest that the magnitude of this relationship may vary according to key plan characteristics.

New insights in the long-debated evolutionary history of Triuridaceae (Pandanales).

PubMed

Mennes, Constantijn B; Smets, Erik F; Moses, Sainge N; Merckx, Vincent S F T

2013-12-01

The mycoheterotrophic plant family Triuridaceae (Pandanales) is hypothesized to be an old family, mainly based on its pantropical distribution. The existence of fossils from the Upper Cretaceous, assigned to Triuridaceae may form additional support for a great age of the family, although the affinity of these fossils to Triuridaceae is questioned. Although the circumscription of Triuridaceae has never been problematic, probably due to its distinct morphological characters, its systematic relationship has been under debate since the family was described around 1840. The lack of synapomorphies suitable for resolving higher taxonomic relationships is a function of the family's reduced vegetative growth and the highly modified floral structures. Molecular studies have assigned Triuridaceae to Pandanales, but its exact phylogenetic position remains unknown. In the present study the phylogeny of the Pandanales was reconstructed using four molecular markers and the divergence age estimates were obtained with a relaxed molecular clock method. We found that Triuridaceae are monophyletic and most likely descent form the second major split in Pandanales. The relationships between the other Pandanales families (Cyclanthaceae, Pandanaceae, Stemonaceae and Velloziaceae) are otherwise in accordance with earlier studies. Velloziaceae are sister to the rest of the Pandanales, Stemonaceae are most likely sister to a clade consisting of Pandanaceae and Cyclanthaceae, and the latter two families are sister to each other. All currently recognized tribes within Triuridaceae are also monophyletic at current taxon sampling. We estimate that the family has a Cretaceous (or Lower Paleocene) stem age, which is in accordance with earlier predictions. This old age, along with elevated mutation rates indicated by long branch lengths and the family's mycoheterotrophic lifestyle, might account for the substantial morphological differences between Triuridaceae and its closest relatives. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Automatic Aircraft Structural Topology Generation for Multidisciplinary Optimization and Weight Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sensmeier, Mark D.; Samareh, Jamshid A.

2005-01-01

An approach is proposed for the application of rapid generation of moderate-fidelity structural finite element models of air vehicle structures to allow more accurate weight estimation earlier in the vehicle design process. This should help to rapidly assess many structural layouts before the start of the preliminary design phase and eliminate weight penalties imposed when actual structure weights exceed those estimated during conceptual design. By defining the structural topology in a fully parametric manner, the structure can be mapped to arbitrary vehicle configurations being considered during conceptual design optimization. A demonstration of this process is shown for two sample aircraft wing designs.

Evolutionary and preservational constraints on origins of biologic groups: divergence times of eutherian mammals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foote, M.; Hunter, J. P.; Janis, C. M.; Sepkoski, J. J. Jr

1999-01-01

Some molecular clock estimates of divergence times of taxonomic groups undergoing evolutionary radiation are much older than the groups' first observed fossil record. Mathematical models of branching evolution are used to estimate the maximal rate of fossil preservation consistent with a postulated missing history, given the sum of species durations implied by early origins under a range of species origination and extinction rates. The plausibility of postulated divergence times depends on origination, extinction, and preservation rates estimated from the fossil record. For eutherian mammals, this approach suggests that it is unlikely that many modern orders arose much earlier than their oldest fossil records.

Bayesian relaxed clock estimation of divergence times in foraminifera.

PubMed

Groussin, Mathieu; Pawlowski, Jan; Yang, Ziheng

2011-10-01

Accurate and precise estimation of divergence times during the Neo-Proterozoic is necessary to understand the speciation dynamic of early Eukaryotes. However such deep divergences are difficult to date, as the molecular clock is seriously violated. Recent improvements in Bayesian molecular dating techniques allow the relaxation of the molecular clock hypothesis as well as incorporation of multiple and flexible fossil calibrations. Divergence times can then be estimated even when the evolutionary rate varies among lineages and even when the fossil calibrations involve substantial uncertainties. In this paper, we used a Bayesian method to estimate divergence times in Foraminifera, a group of unicellular eukaryotes, known for their excellent fossil record but also for the high evolutionary rates of their genomes. Based on multigene data we reconstructed the phylogeny of Foraminifera and dated their origin and the major radiation events. Our estimates suggest that Foraminifera emerged during the Cryogenian (650-920 Ma, Neo-Proterozoic), with a mean time around 770 Ma, about 220 Myr before the first appearance of reliable foraminiferal fossils in sediments (545 Ma). Most dates are in agreement with the fossil record, but in general our results suggest earlier origins of foraminiferal orders. We found that the posterior time estimates were robust to specifications of the prior. Our results highlight inter-species variations of evolutionary rates in Foraminifera. Their effect was partially overcome by using the partitioned Bayesian analysis to accommodate rate heterogeneity among data partitions and using the relaxed molecular clock to account for changing evolutionary rates. However, more coding genes appear necessary to obtain more precise estimates of divergence times and to resolve the conflicts between fossil and molecular date estimates. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The hockey-stick method to estimate evening dim light melatonin onset (DLMO) in humans.

PubMed

Danilenko, Konstantin V; Verevkin, Evgeniy G; Antyufeev, Viktor S; Wirz-Justice, Anna; Cajochen, Christian

2014-04-01

The onset of melatonin secretion in the evening is the most reliable and most widely used index of circadian timing in humans. Saliva (or plasma) is usually sampled every 0.5-1 hours under dim-light conditions in the evening 5-6 hours before usual bedtime to assess the dim-light melatonin onset (DLMO). For many years, attempts have been made to find a reliable objective determination of melatonin onset time either by fixed or dynamic threshold approaches. The here-developed hockey-stick algorithm, used as an interactive computer-based approach, fits the evening melatonin profile by a piecewise linear-parabolic function represented as a straight line switching to the branch of a parabola. The switch point is considered to reliably estimate melatonin rise time. We applied the hockey-stick method to 109 half-hourly melatonin profiles to assess the DLMOs and compared these estimates to visual ratings from three experts in the field. The DLMOs of 103 profiles were considered to be clearly quantifiable. The hockey-stick DLMO estimates were on average 4 minutes earlier than the experts' estimates, with a range of -27 to +13 minutes; in 47% of the cases the difference fell within ±5 minutes, in 98% within -20 to +13 minutes. The raters' and hockey-stick estimates showed poor accordance with DLMOs defined by threshold methods. Thus, the hockey-stick algorithm is a reliable objective method to estimate melatonin rise time, which does not depend on a threshold value and is free from errors arising from differences in subjective circadian phase estimates. The method is available as a computerized program that can be easily used in research settings and clinical practice either for salivary or plasma melatonin values.

Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

PubMed

Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

2018-06-01

Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, M. C.

2004-12-01

Recently, numerous publications have appeared warning that oil production is near an unavoidable, geologically-determined peak that could have consequences up to and including "war, starvation, economic recession, possibly even the extinction of homo sapiens" (Campbell in Ruppert 2002) The current series of alarmist articles could be said to be merely reincarnations of earlier work which proved fallacious, but the authors insist that they have made significant advances in their analyses, overcoming earlier errors. For a number of reasons, this work has been nearly impenetrable to many observers, which seems to have lent it an added cachet. However, careful examination of the data and methods, as well as extensive perusal of the writings, suggests that the opacity of the work is-at best-obscuring the inconclusive nature of their research. Some of the arguments about resource scarcity resemble those made in the 1970s. They have noted that discoveries are low (as did Wilson, 1977), and that most estimates of ultimately recoverable resources (URR) are in the range of 2 trillion barrels, approximately twice production to date. But beyond that, Campbell and Laherrere in particular claim that they have developed accurate estimates of URR, and thus, unlike earlier work, theirs is more scientific and reliable. In other words, this time the wolf is really here. But careful examination of their work reveals instead a pattern of errors and mistaken assumptions presented as conclusive research results.

A Daily Diary Study of Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms and Romantic Partner Accommodation

PubMed Central

Campbell, Sarah B.; Renshaw, Keith D.; Kashdan, Todd B.; Curby, Timothy W.; Carter, Sarah P.

2017-01-01

Little is known about the role of romantic partner symptom accommodation in PTSD symptom maintenance. To explore the bidirectional associations of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and romantic partner symptom accommodation over time, military servicemen (n = 64) with symptoms of PTSD and their co-habiting heterosexual civilian romantic partners (n = 64) completed a 2-week daily diary study. Cross-lagged, autoregressive models assessed the stability of men’s PTSD symptoms and partners’ accommodation, as well as the prospective associations of earlier PTSD symptoms with later accommodation and vice versa. Analyses used Bayesian estimation to provide point estimates (b) and Credible Intervals (CIs). In all models, PTSD symptoms (total and individual clusters) were highly stable (b = 0.91; CI: 0.88–0.95), and accommodation was moderately stable (b = 0.48; CI: 0.40–0.54). In all models, earlier PTSD symptoms (total and clusters) were significantly, positively associated with later accommodation (b = 0.04; CI: 0.02–0.07). In contrast, earlier accommodation was significantly associated only with later situational avoidance (b = 0.02; CI: 0.00–0.07). Thus, PTSD symptoms may lead to subsequent accommodating behaviors in romantic partners, but partner accommodation seems to contribute only to survivors’ future situational avoidance symptoms. The findings reinforce the notion that PTSD symptoms have an impact on relationship behaviors, and that accommodation from partners may sustain avoidant behaviors in particular. Clinicians should attend to romantic partners’ accommodating behaviors when working with survivors. PMID:28270332

The Caspian Sea Negotiation Support System 2.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouhani, O. M.; Madani, K.

2012-12-01

The Caspian Sea is one of the most resourceful (both in energy and biological resources) areas of the world. The share allocation of Caspian Sea has been the subject of many disputes. Up to now, the negotiations to reach an agreement regarding the ownership status of the sea have not been completely successful. To facilitate reaching an agreement among littoral countries, research studies can provide valuable information. Researchers should examine different options for dividing the sea closely and determine the benefits of each of the options for the parties involved. Following an earlier effort, Caspian Sea Negotiation Support System is further developed in this regard. The model estimates countries' areal and utility shares under different legal methods/scenarios, attempting to minimize transportation costs of exploiting the resource. The applied model is more efficient than the earlier model and the used data includes more variables/attributes such as depth, the differentiation between gas and oil, and various fish resources than the previously employed data. Consequently, the estimates are calculated in more details than are calculated in the earlier study. The results still show a high sensitivity of outputs to the proposed division rules, suggesting a need to clarify the countries' utility and areal shares under any suggested legal regime. Compared to the previous results, the new results confirm the significant effect of the addition of the more variables/attributes to the analysis, in terms of the areal shares and allocations, valuation of resources, and asset management.

Prostate cancer risk prediction based on complete prostate cancer family history.

PubMed

Albright, Frederick; Stephenson, Robert A; Agarwal, Neeraj; Teerlink, Craig C; Lowrance, William T; Farnham, James M; Albright, Lisa A Cannon

2015-03-01

Prostate cancer (PC) relative risks (RRs) are typically estimated based on status of close relatives or presence of any affected relatives. This study provides RR estimates using extensive and specific PC family history. A retrospective population-based study was undertaken to estimate RRs for PC based on complete family history of PC. A total of 635,443 males, all with ancestral genealogy data, were analyzed. RRs for PC were determined based upon PC rates estimated from males with no PC family history (without PC in first, second, or third degree relatives). RRs were determined for a variety of constellations, for example, number of first through third degree relatives; named (grandfather, father, uncle, cousins, brothers); maternal, paternal relationships, and age of onset. In the 635,443 males analyzed, 18,105 had PC. First-degree RRs ranged from 2.46 (=1 first-degree relative affected, CI = 2.39-2.53) to 7.65 (=4 first-degree relatives affected, CI = 6.28-9.23). Second-degree RRs for probands with 0 affected first-degree relatives ranged from 1.51 (≥1 second-degree relative affected, CI = 1.47-1.56) to 3.09 (≥5 second-degree relatives affected, CI = 2.32-4.03). Third-degree RRs with 0 affected first- and 0 affected second-degree relatives ranged from 1.15 (≥1 affected third-degree relative, CI = 1.12-1.19) to 1.50 (≥5 affected third-degree relatives, CI = 1.35-1.66). RRs based on age at diagnosis were higher for earlier age at diagnoses; for example, RR = 5.54 for ≥1 first-degree relative diagnosed before age 50 years (CI = 1.12-1.19) and RR = 1.78 for >1 second-degree relative diagnosed before age 50 years, CI = 1.33, 2.33. RRs for equivalent maternal versus paternal family history were not significantly different. A more complete PC family history using close and distant relatives and age at diagnosis results in a wider range of estimates of individual RR that are potentially more accurate than RRs estimated from summary family history. The presence of PC in second- and even third-degree relatives contributes significantly to risk. Maternal family history is just as significant as paternal family history. PC RRs based on a proband's complete constellation of affected relatives will allow patients and care providers to make more informed screening, monitoring, and treatment decisions. © 2014 The Authors. The Prostate Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Demographic characteristics of an adfluvial bull trout population in Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCubbins, Jonathan L; Hansen, Michael J.; DosSantos, Joseph M; Dux, Andrew M

2016-01-01

Introductions of nonnative species, habitat loss, and stream fragmentation have caused the Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus to decline throughout much of its native distribution. Consequently, in June 1998, the Bull Trout was listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act as threatened. The Bull Trout has existed in Lake Pend Oreille and its surrounding tributaries since the last ice age, and the lake once supported a world-renowned Bull Trout fishery. To quantify the current status of the Bull Trout population in Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho, we compared the mean age, growth, maturity, and abundance with reports in a study conducted one decade earlier. Abundance was estimated by mark–recapture for Bull Trout caught in trap nets and gill nets set in Lake Pend Oreille during ongoing suppression netting of Lake Trout S. namaycushin 2007–2008. Bull Trout sampled in 2006–2008 were used to estimate age structure, survival, growth, and maturity. Estimated Bull Trout abundance was similar to that estimated one decade earlier in Lake Pend Oreille. Bull Trout residing in Lake Pend Oreille between 2006 and 2008 were between ages 4 and 14 years; their growth was fastest between ages 1 and 2 and slowed thereafter. Male and female Bull Trout matured at a similar age, but females grew faster than males, thereby maturing at a larger size. Our findings suggest that management has effectively addressed current threats to increase the likelihood of long-term persistence of the Bull Trout population in Lake Pend Oreille.

Grizzly bear denning chronology and movements in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haroldson, Mark A.; Ternent, Mark A.; Gunther, Kerry A.; Schwartz, Charles C.

2002-01-01

Den entrance and emergence dates of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem are important to management agencies that wish to minimize impacts of human activities on bears. Current estimates for grizzly bear denning events use data that were collected from 1975–80. We update these estimates by including data obtained from 1981–99. We used aerial telemetry data to estimate week of den entry and emergence by determining the midpoint between the last known active date and the first known date denned, as well as the last known date denned and the first known active date. We also investigated post emergence movement patterns relative to den locations. Mean earliest and latest week of den entry and emergence were also determined. Den entry for females began during the fourth week in September, with 90% denned by the fourth week of November. Earliest den entry for males occurred during the second week of October, with 90% denned by the second week of December. Mean week of den entry for known pregnant females was earlier than males. Earliest week of den entry for known pregnant females was earlier than other females and males. Earliest den emergence for males occurred during the first week of February, with 90% of males out of dens by the fourth week of April. Earliest den emergence for females occurred during the third week of March; by the first week of May, 90% of females had emerged. Male bears emerged from dens earlier than females. Denning period differed among classes and averaged 171 days for females that emerged from dens with cubs, 151 days for other females, and 131 days for males. Known pregnant females tended to den at higher elevations and, following emergence, remained at higher elevation until late May. Females with cubs remained relatively close (<3 km) to den sites until the last 2 weeks in May. Timing of denning events was similar to previous estimates for this and other grizzly bear populations in the southern Rocky Mountains. 

Relationships Between Age at Menarche, Walking Gait Base of Support, and Stance Phase Frontal Plane Knee Biomechanics in Adolescent Girls.

PubMed

Froehle, Andrew W; Grannis, Kimberly A; Sherwood, Richard J; Duren, Dana L

2017-05-01

Age at menarche impacts patterns of pubertal growth and skeletal development. These effects may carry over into variation in biomechanical profiles involved in sports-related traumatic and overuse knee injuries. The present study investigated whether age at menarche is a potential indicator of knee injury risk through its influence on knee biomechanics during normal walking. To test the hypothesis that earlier menarche is related to postpubertal biomechanical risk factors for knee injuries, including a wider, more immature gait base of support, and greater valgus knee angles and moments. Cross-sectional observational study. University research facility. Healthy, postmenarcheal, adolescent girls. Age at menarche was obtained by recall questionnaire. Pubertal growth and anthropometric data were collected by using standard methods. Biomechanical data were taken from tests of walking gait at self-selected speed. Reflective marker position data were collected with a 3-dimensional quantitative motion analysis system, and 3 force plates recorded kinetic data. Age at menarche; growth and anthropometric measurements; base of support; static knee frontal plane angle; and dynamic knee frontal plane angles and moments during stance. Earlier menarche was correlated significantly with abbreviated pubertal growth and postpubertal retention of immature traits, including a wider base of support. Earlier menarche and wider base of support were both correlated with more valgus static knee angles, more valgus knee abduction angles and moments at foot-strike, and a more valgus peak knee abduction angle during stance. Peak knee abduction moment during stance was not correlated with age at menarche or base of support. Earlier menarche and its effects on growth are associated with retention of a relatively immature gait base of support and a tendency for static and dynamic valgus knee alignment. This biomechanical profile may put girls with earlier menarche at greater risk for sports-related knee injuries. Not applicable. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relationships between age at menarche, walking gait base of support, and stance phase frontal plane knee biomechanics in adolescent females

PubMed Central

Grannis, Kimberly A.; Sherwood, Richard J.; Duren, Dana L

2016-01-01

Background Age at menarche impacts patterns of pubertal growth and skeletal development. These effects may carry over into variation in biomechanical profiles involved in sports-related traumatic and overuse knee injuries. The present study investigated whether age at menarche is a potential indicator of knee injury risk through its influence on knee biomechanics during normal walking. Objective To test the hypothesis that earlier menarche is related to post-pubertal biomechanical risk factors for knee injuries, including a wider, more immature gait base of support, and greater valgus knee angles and moments. Design Cross-sectional observational study. Setting University research facility. Participants Healthy, post-menarcheal, adolescent females. Methods Age at menarche was obtained by recall questionnaire. Pubertal growth and anthropometric data were collected using standard methods. Biomechanical data were taken from tests of walking gait at self-selected speed. Reflective marker position data were collected using a three-dimensional quantitative motion analysis system, and three force plates recorded kinetic data. Main Outcome Measures Age at menarche; growth and anthropometric measurements; base of support; static knee frontal plane angle; dynamic knee frontal plane angles and moments during stance. Results Earlier menarche was significantly correlated with abbreviated pubertal growth and post-pubertal retention of immature traits, including a wider base of support. Earlier menarche and wider base of support were both correlated with more valgus static knee angles, more valgus knee abduction angles and moments at foot-strike, and a more valgus peak knee abduction angle during stance. Peak knee abduction moment during stance was not correlated with age at menarche or base of support. Conclusions Earlier menarche and its effects on growth are associated with retention of a relatively immature gait base of support and a tendency for static and dynamic valgus knee alignment. This biomechanical profile may put girls with earlier menarche at higher risk for sports-related knee injuries. PMID:27485675

Filling in the gaps: estimating numbers of chlamydia tests and diagnoses by age group and sex before and during the implementation of the English National Screening Programme, 2000 to 2012.

PubMed

Chandra, Nastassya L; Soldan, Kate; Dangerfield, Ciara; Sile, Bersabeh; Duffell, Stephen; Talebi, Alireza; Choi, Yoon H; Hughes, Gwenda; Woodhall, Sarah C

2017-02-02

To inform mathematical modelling of the impact of chlamydia screening in England since 2000, a complete picture of chlamydia testing is needed. Monitoring and surveillance systems evolved between 2000 and 2012. Since 2012, data on publicly funded chlamydia tests and diagnoses have been collected nationally. However, gaps exist for earlier years. We collated available data on chlamydia testing and diagnosis rates among 15-44-year-olds by sex and age group for 2000-2012. Where data were unavailable, we applied data- and evidence-based assumptions to construct plausible minimum and maximum estimates and set bounds on uncertainty. There was a large range between estimates in years when datasets were less comprehensive (2000-2008); smaller ranges were seen hereafter. In 15-19-year-old women in 2000, the estimated diagnosis rate ranged between 891 and 2,489 diagnoses per 100,000 persons. Testing and diagnosis rates increased between 2000 and 2012 in women and men across all age groups using minimum or maximum estimates, with greatest increases seen among 15-24-year-olds. Our dataset can be used to parameterise and validate mathematical models and serve as a reference dataset to which trends in chlamydia-related complications can be compared. Our analysis highlights the complexities of combining monitoring and surveillance datasets. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2017.

Spatial-altitudinal and temporal variation of Degree Day Factors (DDFs) in the Upper Indus Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Asif; Attaullah, Haleema; Masud, Tabinda; Khan, Mujahid

2017-04-01

Melt contribution from snow and ice in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayan (HKH) region could account for more than 80% of annual river flows in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Increase or decrease in precipitation, energy input and glacier reserves can significantly affect water resources of this region. Therefore improved hydrological modelling and accurate future water resources prediction are vital for food production and hydro-power generation for millions of people living downstream, and are intensively needed. In mountain regions Degree Day Factors (DDFs) significantly vary on spatial and altitudinal basis, and are primary inputs of temperature-based hydrological modelling. However previous studies have used different DDFs as calibration parameters without due attention to the physical meaning of the values employed, and these estimates possess significant variability and uncertainty. This study provides estimates of DDFs for various altitudinal zones in the UIB at sub-basin level. Snow, clean ice and ice with debris cover bear different melt rates (or DDFs), therefore areally-averaged DDFs based on snow, clean and debris-covered ice classes in various altitudinal zones have been estimated for all sub-basins of the UIB. Zonal estimates of DDFs in the current study are significantly different from earlier adopted DDFs, hence suggest a revisit of previous hydrological modelling studies. DDFs presented in current study have been validated by using Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) in various sub-basins with good Nash Sutcliffe coefficients (R2 > 0.85) and low volumetric errors (Dv<10%). DDFs and methods provided in the current study can be used in future improved hydrological modelling and to provide accurate predictions of future river flows changes. The methodology used for estimation of DDFs is robust, and can be adopted to produce such estimates in other regions of the, particularly in the nearby other HKH basins.

Intercomparison, interpretation, and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, M.A.; de Beurs, K. M.; Didan, K.; Inouye, D.W.; Richardson, A.D.; Jensen, O.P.; O'Keefe, J.; Zhang, G.; Nemani, R.R.; van, Leeuwen; Brown, Jesslyn F.; de Wit, A.; Schaepman, M.; Lin, X.; Dettinger, M.; Bailey, A.S.; Kimball, J.; Schwartz, M.D.; Baldocchi, D.D.; Lee, J.T.; Lauenroth, W.K.

2009-01-01

Shifts in the timing of spring phenology are a central feature of global change research. Long-term observations of plant phenology have been used to track vegetation responses to climate variability but are often limited to particular species and locations and may not represent synoptic patterns. Satellite remote sensing is instead used for continental to global monitoring. Although numerous methods exist to extract phenological timing, in particular start-of-spring (SOS), from time series of reflectance data, a comprehensive intercomparison and interpretation of SOS methods has not been conducted. Here, we assess 10 SOS methods for North America between 1982 and 2006. The techniques include consistent inputs from the 8 km Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer NDVIg dataset, independent data for snow cover, soil thaw, lake ice dynamics, spring streamflow timing, over 16 000 individual measurements of ground-based phenology, and two temperature-driven models of spring phenology. Compared with an ensemble of the 10 SOS methods, we found that individual methods differed in average day-of-year estimates by ±60 days and in standard deviation by ±20 days. The ability of the satellite methods to retrieve SOS estimates was highest in northern latitudes and lowest in arid, tropical, and Mediterranean ecoregions. The ordinal rank of SOS methods varied geographically, as did the relationships between SOS estimates and the cryospheric/hydrologic metrics. Compared with ground observations, SOS estimates were more related to the first leaf and first flowers expanding phenological stages. We found no evidence for time trends in spring arrival from ground- or model-based data; using an ensemble estimate from two methods that were more closely related to ground observations than other methods, SOS trends could be detected for only 12% of North America and were divided between trends towards both earlier and later spring.

Nitrous oxide emissions estimated with the Carbon Tracker Lagrange regional inversion framework suggest the North American source comes predominantly from agricultural regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nevison, C. D.; Andrews, A. E.; Thoning, K. W.; Saikawa, E.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Sweeney, C.; Benmergui, J. S.

2016-12-01

The Carbon Tracker Lagrange (CTL) regional inversion framework is used to estimate North American nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions of 1.6 ± 0.4 Tg N/yr over 2008-2013. More than half of the North American emissions are estimated to come from the central agricultural belt, extending from southern Canada to Texas, and are strongest in spring and early summer, consistent with a nitrogen fertilizer-driven source. The estimated N2O flux from the Midwestern corn/soybean belt and the more northerly wheat belt corresponds to 5% of synthetic + organic N fertilizer applied to those regions. While earlier regional atmospheric inversion studies have suggested that global inventories such as EDGAR may be underestimating U.S. anthropogenic N2O emissions by a factor of 3 or more, our results, integrated over a full calendar year, are generally consistent with those inventories and with global inverse model results and budget constraints. The CTL framework is a Bayesian method based on footprints from the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model applied to atmospheric N2O data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, including surface, aircraft and tall tower platforms. The CTL inversion results are sensitive to the prescribed boundary condition or background value of N2O, which is estimated based on a new Empirical BackGround (EBG) product derived from STILT back trajectories applied to NOAA data. Analysis of the N2O EBG products suggests a significant, seasonally-varying influence on surface N2O data due to the stratospheric influx of N2O-depleted air. Figure 1. Posterior annual mean N2O emissions for 2010 estimated with the CTL regional inversion framework. The locations of NOAA surface and aircraft data used in the inversion are superimposed as black circles and grey triangles, respectively. Mobile surface sites are indicated with asterisks.

Age at Immigration and the Incomes of Older Immigrants, 1994–2010

PubMed Central

Tienda, Marta

2015-01-01

Objectives. Seniors comprise a growing proportion of new U.S. immigrants. We investigate whether late-age immigrants are disadvantaged in older age relative to those arriving earlier in life, based on income, reliance on public benefits, and access to public medical insurance. We test whether the 1996 welfare reform law altered the relationships between age at immigration and these outcomes. Method. Immigrants aged 65 and older in the 1994–2010 Current Population Surveys were classified by age at immigration. Median and logistic regressions are used to estimate the association between age at immigration and several outcomes and to test whether these associations differ for arrivals before and after welfare reform. Results. Late-age immigration is strongly associated with lower personal income, lower rates of Medicare and Social Security receipt, and higher participation in Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and Medicaid. Arrival after 1996 is associated with lower rates of SSI, Medicaid, and Medicare receipt. The association between late-age immigration and income is stronger for post-1996 arrivals relative to earlier arrivals, whereas that between late-age immigration and Medicaid is weaker, suggesting that the penalty conferred by late-age immigration grew after reform. Discussion. Late-age immigrants face formidable economic disadvantages exacerbated by exclusion from public benefits, with implications for immigration, health care, and welfare policy. PMID:24942972

Meta-analysis in Stata using gllamm.

PubMed

Bagos, Pantelis G

2015-12-01

There are several user-written programs for performing meta-analysis in Stata (Stata Statistical Software: College Station, TX: Stata Corp LP). These include metan, metareg, mvmeta, and glst. However, there are several cases for which these programs do not suffice. For instance, there is no software for performing univariate meta-analysis with correlated estimates, for multilevel or hierarchical meta-analysis, or for meta-analysis of longitudinal data. In this work, we show with practical applications that many disparate models, including but not limited to the ones mentioned earlier, can be fitted using gllamm. The software is very versatile and can handle a wide variety of models with applications in a wide range of disciplines. The method presented here takes advantage of these modeling capabilities and makes use of appropriate transformations, based on the Cholesky decomposition of the inverse of the covariance matrix, known as generalized least squares, in order to handle correlated data. The models described earlier can be thought of as special instances of a general linear mixed-model formulation, but to the author's knowledge, a general exposition in order to incorporate all the available models for meta-analysis as special cases and the instructions to fit them in Stata has not been presented so far. Source code is available at http:www.compgen.org/tools/gllamm. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Is a drain tube necessary for minimally invasive lumbar spine fusion surgery?

PubMed

Hung, Pei-I; Chang, Ming-Chau; Chou, Po-Hsin; Lin, Hsi-Hsien; Wang, Shih-Tien; Liu, Chien-Lin

2017-03-01

This study aimed to evaluate if closed suction wound drainage is necessary in minimally invasive surgery of transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (MIS TLIF). This is a prospective randomized clinical study. Fifty-six patients who underwent MIS TLIF were randomly divided into groups A (with a closed suction wound drainage) and B (without tube drainage). Surgical duration, intraoperative blood loss, timing of ambulation, length of hospital stay and complications were recorded. Patients were followed up for an average of 25.3 months. Clinical outcome was assessed using the Oswestry disability index and visual analogue scale (VAS). Fusion rate was classified with the Bridwell grading system, based on plain radiograph. Both groups had similar patient demographics. The use of drains had no significant influence on perioperative parameters including operative time, estimated blood loss, length of stay and complications. Patients in group B started ambulation 1 day earlier than patients in group A (p < 0.001). Clinical outcomes were comparable between group A and group B. A drain tube can lead to pain, anxiety and discomfort during the postoperative period. We conclude that drain tubes are not necessary for MIS TLIF. Patients without drains had the benefit of earlier ambulation than those with drains.

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Mass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (NDP-058.2010)

DOE Data Explorer

Andres, R. J. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Boden, T. A. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Marland, G. [Appalachian State University, Boone, NC (USA)

2010-01-01

The 2010 version of this database presents a time series recording 1° latitude by 1° longitude CO2 emissions in units of million metric tons of carbon per year from anthropogenic sources for 1751-2007. Detailed geographic information on CO2 emissions can be critical in understanding the pattern of the atmospheric and biospheric response to these emissions. Global, regional, and national annual estimates for 1751 through 2007 were published earlier (Boden et al. 2010). Those national, annual CO2 emission estimates were based on statistics about fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing and gas flaring in oil fields as well as energy production, consumption, and trade data, using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The national annual estimates were combined with gridded 1° data on political units and 1984 human populations to create the new gridded CO2 emission time series. The same population distribution was used for each of the years as proxy for the emission distribution within each country. The implied assumption for that procedure was that per capita energy use and fuel mixes are uniform over a political unit. The consequence of this first-order procedure is that the spatial changes observed over time are solely due to changes in national energy consumption and nation-based fuel mix. Increases in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over time are apparent for most areas.

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Mass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (NDP-058.2013)

DOE Data Explorer

Andres, R. J. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Boden, T. A. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Marland, G. [Appalachian State University, Boone, NC (USA)

2013-01-01

The 2013 version of this database presents a time series recording 1° latitude by 1° longitude CO2 emissions in units of million metric tons of carbon per year from anthropogenic sources for 1751-2010. Detailed geographic information on CO2 emissions can be critical in understanding the pattern of the atmospheric and biospheric response to these emissions. Global, regional, and national annual estimates for 1751 through 2010 were published earlier (Boden et al. 2013). Those national, annual CO2 emission estimates were based on statistics about fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing and gas flaring in oil fields as well as energy production, consumption, and trade data, using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The national annual estimates were combined with gridded 1° data on political units and 1984 human populations to create the new gridded CO2 emission time series. The same population distribution was used for each of the years as proxy for the emission distribution within each country. The implied assumption for that procedure was that per capita energy use and fuel mixes are uniform over a political unit. The consequence of this first-order procedure is that the spatial changes observed over time are solely due to changes in national energy consumption and nation-based fuel mix. Increases in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over time are apparent for most areas.

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Mass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (NDP-058.2015)

DOE Data Explorer

Andres, R. J. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Boden, T. A. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Marland, G. [Appalachian State University, Boone, NC (USA)

2015-01-01

The 2015 version of this database presents a time series recording 1° latitude by 1° longitude CO2 emissions in units of million metric tons of carbon per year from anthropogenic sources for 1751-2011. Detailed geographic information on CO2 emissions can be critical in understanding the pattern of the atmospheric and biospheric response to these emissions. Global, regional, and national annual estimates for 1751 through 2011 were published earlier (Boden et al. 2015). Those national, annual CO2 emission estimates were based on statistics about fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing and gas flaring in oil fields as well as energy production, consumption, and trade data, using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The national annual estimates were combined with gridded 1° data on political units and 1984 human populations to create the new gridded CO2 emission time series. The same population distribution was used for each of the years as proxy for the emission distribution within each country. The implied assumption for that procedure was that per capita energy use and fuel mixes are uniform over a political unit. The consequence of this first-order procedure is that the spatial changes observed over time are solely due to changes in national energy consumption and nation-based fuel mix. Increases in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over time are apparent for most areas.

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Mass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (NDP-058.2011)

DOE Data Explorer

Andres, R. J. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Boden, T. A. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Marland, G. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA)

2011-01-01

The 2011 version of this database presents a time series recording 1° latitude by 1° longitude CO2 emissions in units of million metric tons of carbon per year from anthropogenic sources for 1751-2008. Detailed geographic information on CO2 emissions can be critical in understanding the pattern of the atmospheric and biospheric response to these emissions. Global, regional, and national annual estimates for 1751 through 2008 were published earlier (Boden et al. 2011). Those national, annual CO2 emission estimates were based on statistics about fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing and gas flaring in oil fields as well as energy production, consumption, and trade data, using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The national annual estimates were combined with gridded 1° data on political units and 1984 human populations to create the new gridded CO2 emission time series. The same population distribution was used for each of the years as proxy for the emission distribution within each country. The implied assumption for that procedure was that per capita energy use and fuel mixes are uniform over a political unit. The consequence of this first-order procedure is that the spatial changes observed over time are solely due to changes in national energy consumption and nation-based fuel mix. Increases in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over time are apparent for most areas.

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Mass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (NDP-058.2012)

DOE Data Explorer

Andres, R. J. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Boden, T. A. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Marland, G. [Appalachian State University, Boone, NC (USA)

2012-01-01

The 2012 version of this database presents a time series recording 1° latitude by 1° longitude CO2 emissions in units of million metric tons of carbon per year from anthropogenic sources for 1751-2009. Detailed geographic information on CO2 emissions can be critical in understanding the pattern of the atmospheric and biospheric response to these emissions. Global, regional, and national annual estimates for 1751 through 2009 were published earlier (Boden et al. 2012). Those national, annual CO2 emission estimates were based on statistics about fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing and gas flaring in oil fields as well as energy production, consumption, and trade data, using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The national annual estimates were combined with gridded 1° data on political units and 1984 human populations to create the new gridded CO2 emission time series. The same population distribution was used for each of the years as proxy for the emission distribution within each country. The implied assumption for that procedure was that per capita energy use and fuel mixes are uniform over a political unit. The consequence of this first-order procedure is that the spatial changes observed over time are solely due to changes in national energy consumption and nation-based fuel mix. Increases in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over time are apparent for most areas.

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Mass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (1751-2006) (NDP-058.2009)

DOE Data Explorer

Andres, R. J. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Boden, T. A. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Marland, G. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA)

2009-01-01

The 2009 version of this database presents a time series recording 1° latitude by 1° longitude CO2 emissions in units of million metric tons of carbon per year from anthropogenic sources for 1751-2006. Detailed geographic information on CO2 emissions can be critical in understanding the pattern of the atmospheric and biospheric response to these emissions. Global, regional, and national annual estimates for 1751 through 2006 were published earlier (Boden et al. 2009). Those national, annual CO2 emission estimates were based on statistics about fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing and gas flaring in oil fields as well as energy production, consumption, and trade data, using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The national annual estimates were combined with gridded 1° data on political units and 1984 human populations to create the new gridded CO2 emission time series. The same population distribution was used for each of the years as proxy for the emission distribution within each country. The implied assumption for that procedure was that per capita energy use and fuel mixes are uniform over a political unit. The consequence of this first-order procedure is that the spatial changes observed over time are solely due to changes in national energy consumption and nation-based fuel mix. Increases in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over time are apparent for most areas.

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Mass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (NDP-058.2016)

DOE Data Explorer

Andres, R. J. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA); Boden, T. A. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA)

2016-01-01

The 2016 version of this database presents a time series recording 1° latitude by 1° longitude CO2 emissions in units of million metric tons of carbon per year from anthropogenic sources for 1751-2013. Detailed geographic information on CO2 emissions can be critical in understanding the pattern of the atmospheric and biospheric response to these emissions. Global, regional, and national annual estimates for 1751 through 2013 were published earlier (Boden et al. 2016). Those national, annual CO2 emission estimates were based on statistics about fossil-fuel burning, cement manufacturing and gas flaring in oil fields as well as energy production, consumption, and trade data, using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The national annual estimates were combined with gridded 1° data on political units and 1984 human populations to create the new gridded CO2 emission time series. The same population distribution was used for each of the years as proxy for the emission distribution within each country. The implied assumption for that procedure was that per capita energy use and fuel mixes are uniform over a political unit. The consequence of this first-order procedure is that the spatial changes observed over time are solely due to changes in national energy consumption and nation-based fuel mix. Increases in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over time are apparent for most areas.

Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum linked to continental arc flare-up in Iran?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Boon, A.; Kuiper, K.; van der Ploeg, R.; Cramwinckel, M.; Honarmand, M.; Sluijs, A.; Krijgsman, W.; Langereis, C. G.

2017-12-01

A 500 kyr episode of 3-5 °C gradual global climate warming, some 40 Myr ago, has been termed the Middle Eocene climatic optimum (MECO). It has been associated with a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but the source of this carbon remains enigmatic. We show, based on new Ar-Ar ages of volcanic rocks in Iran and Azerbaijan, that the time interval spanning the MECO was associated with a massive increase in continental arc volcanism. We also collected almost 300 Ar-Ar and U-Pb ages from literature. Typically, U-Pb ages from the Eocene are slightly younger, by 3 Myr, than Ar-Ar ages. We observed that U-Pb ages are obtained mostly from intrusive rocks and therefore must reflect an intrusive stage that post-dated extrusive volcanism. Combining all ages for extrusive rocks, we show that they cluster around 40.2 Ma, exactly within the time span of the MECO (40.5-40.0 Ma). We estimate volumes of volcanism based on a shapefile of outcrops and average thickness of the sequences. We calculate CO2 estimates using a relation volcanism-CO2 that was earlier used for the Deccan traps (Tobin et al., 2017). Our calculations indicate that the volume of the Iranian middle Eocene volcanic rocks (estimated at 37000 km3) is sufficient to explain the CO2 rise during the MECO. We conclude that continental arc flare-up in the Neotethys subduction zone is a plausible candidate for causing the MECO.

Interaction of the Onset of Spring and Elevated Atmospheric CO2 on Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) Pollen Production

PubMed Central

Rogers, Christine A.; Wayne, Peter M.; Macklin, Eric A.; Muilenberg, Michael L.; Wagner, Christopher J.; Epstein, Paul R.; Bazzaz, Fakhri A.

2006-01-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide is responsible for climate changes that are having widespread effects on biological systems. One of the clearest changes is earlier onset of spring and lengthening of the growing season. We designed the present study to examine the interactive effects of timing of dormancy release of seeds with low and high atmospheric CO2 on biomass, reproduction, and phenology in ragweed plants (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), which produce highly allergenic pollen. We released ragweed seeds from dormancy at three 15-day intervals and grew plants in climate-controlled glasshouses at either ambient or 700-ppm CO2 concentrations, placing open-top bags over inflorescences to capture pollen. Measurements of plant height and weight; inflorescence number, weight, and length; and days to anthesis and anthesis date were made on each plant, and whole-plant pollen productivity was estimated from an allometric-based model. Timing and CO2 interacted to influence pollen production. At ambient CO2 levels, the earlier cohort acquired a greater biomass, a higher average weight per inflorescence, and a larger number of inflorescences; flowered earlier; and had 54.8% greater pollen production than did the latest cohort. At high CO2 levels, plants showed greater biomass and reproductive effort compared with those in ambient CO2 but only for later cohorts. In the early cohort, pollen production was similar under ambient and high CO2, but in the middle and late cohorts, high CO2 increased pollen production by 32% and 55%, respectively, compared with ambient CO2 levels. Overall, ragweed pollen production can be expected to increase significantly under predicted future climate conditions. PMID:16759986

Interaction of the onset of spring and elevated atmospheric CO2 on ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) pollen production.

PubMed

Rogers, Christine A; Wayne, Peter M; Macklin, Eric A; Muilenberg, Michael L; Wagner, Christopher J; Epstein, Paul R; Bazzaz, Fakhri A

2006-06-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide is responsible for climate changes that are having widespread effects on biological systems. One of the clearest changes is earlier onset of spring and lengthening of the growing season. We designed the present study to examine the interactive effects of timing of dormancy release of seeds with low and high atmospheric CO2 on biomass, reproduction, and phenology in ragweed plants (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), which produce highly allergenic pollen. We released ragweed seeds from dormancy at three 15-day intervals and grew plants in climate-controlled glass-houses at either ambient or 700-ppm CO2 concentrations, placing open-top bags over influorescences to capture pollen. Measurements of plant height and weight; inflorescence number, weight, and length; and days to anthesis and anthesis date were made on each plant, and whole-plant pollen productivity was estimated from an allometric-based model. Timing and CO2 interacted to influence pollen production. At ambient CO2 levels, the earlier cohort acquired a greater biomass, a higher average weight per inflorescence, and a larger number of influorescences; flowered earlier; and had 54.8% greater pollen production than did the latest cohort. At high CO2 levels, plants showed greater biomass and reproductive effort compared with those in ambient CO2 but only for later cohorts. In the early cohort, pollen production was similar under ambient and high CO2, but in the middle and late cohorts, high CO2 increased pollen production by 32% and 55%, respectively, compared with ambient CO2 levels. Overall, ragweed pollen production can be expected to increase significantly under predicted future climate conditions.

Updating histological data on crown initiation and crown completion ages in southern Africans.

PubMed

Reid, Donald J; Guatelli-Steinberg, Debbie

2017-04-01

To update histological data on crown initiation and completion ages in southern Africans. To evaluate implications of these data for studies that: (a) rely on these data to time linear enamel hypoplasias (LEHs), or, (b) use these data for comparison to fossil hominins. Initiation ages were calculated on 67 histological sections from southern Africans, with sample sizes ranging from one to 11 per tooth type. Crown completion ages for southern Africans were calculated in two ways. First, actual derived initiation ages were added to crown formation times for each histological section to obtain direct information on the crown completion ages of individuals. Second, average initiation ages from this study were added to average crown formation times of southern Africans from the Reid and coworkers previous studies that were based on larger samples. For earlier-initiating tooth types (all anterior teeth and first molars), there is little difference in ages of initiation and crown completion between this and previous studies. Differences increase as a function of initiation age, such that the greatest differences between this and previous studies for both initiation and crown completion ages are for the second and third molars. This study documents variation in initiation ages, particularly for later-initiating tooth types. It upholds the use of previously published histological aging charts for LEHs on anterior teeth. However, this study finds that ages of crown initiation and completion in second and third molars for this southern African sample are earlier than previously estimated. These earlier ages reduce differences between modern humans and fossil hominins for these developmental events in second and third molars. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

IR spectroscopy as a source of data on bond strengths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finkelshtein, E. I.; Shamsiev, R. S.

2018-02-01

The aim of this work is the estimation of double bond strength, namely Cdbnd O bonds in ketones and aldehydes and Cdbnd C bonds in various compounds. By the breaking of these bonds one or both fragments formed are carbenes, for which experimental data on the enthalpies of formation (ΔHf298) are scarce. Thus for the estimation of ΔHf298 of the corresponding carbenes, the empirical equations were proposed based on different approximations. In addition, a quantum chemical calculations of the ΔHf298 values of carbenes were performed, and the data obtained were compared with experimental values and the results of earlier calculations. Equations for the calculation of Cdbnd O bond strengths of different ketones and aldehydes from the corresponding stretching frequencies ν(Cdbnd O) were derived. Using the proposed equations, the strengths of Cdbnd O bonds of 25 ketones and 12 conjugated aldehydes, as well as Cdbnd C bonds of 13 hydrocarbons and 7 conjugated aldehydes were estimated for the first time. Linear correlations of Cdbnd C and Cdbnd O bond strengths with the bond lengths were established, and the equations permitting the estimation of the double bond strengths and lengths with acceptable accuracy were obtained. Also, the strength of central Cdbnd C bond of stilbene was calculated for the first time. The uncertainty of the strengths of double bonds obtained may be regarded as accurate ±10-15 kJ/mol.

Influence of predators and parisitoids on bark beetle productivity

Treesearch

Jan Weslien

1991-01-01

In an earlier field experiment, natural enemies of the bark beetle, Ips typographus (L) were estimated to have reduced bark beetle productivity by more than 80 percent. To test this hypothesis, spruce logs (Picea abies) were placed in the forest in the spring, prior to commencement of flight by I. typographus....

Theoretical Study of the Saturated Stage of a Relativistic Magnetron

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-11-30

mentioned that an earlier method to estimate the validity of a variational approximation had been given in Ref. [28], where Dexais, Anderson and Lasik ...Zemlyanaya. Phys. Rev. Lett. 80 (1998)5117. [28] M. Dexais. D. Anderson. M. Lasik . Phys. Rev. A 40 (1989) 2441. This research was supported in part by

Forest statistics for the Piedmont of South Carolina, 1993

Treesearch

Mark J. Brown

1993-01-01

This report summarizes results from a 1993 inventory of the forest resources of the Piedmont of South Carolina. Current estimates of forest area, associated characteristics, and timber volumes are highlighted and compared with the 1986 and earlier inventory findings. Average annual rates of growth, removals, and mortality since the previous inventory are reported....

Quantifying Security Threats and Their Impact

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aissa, Anis Ben; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T

In earlier works, we present a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security breakdowns. In this paper we illustrate this infrastructure by means of a sample example involving an e-commerce application.

Quantifying Security Threats and Their Potential Impacts: A Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aissa, Anis Ben; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T

In earlier works, we present a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security breakdowns. In this paper, we illustrate this infrastructure by means of an e-commerce application.

Fuel-Cell Power Source Based on Onboard Rocket Propellants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganapathi, Gani; Narayan, Sri

2010-01-01

The use of onboard rocket propellants (dense liquids at room temperature) in place of conventional cryogenic fuel-cell reactants (hydrogen and oxygen) eliminates the mass penalties associated with cryocooling and boil-off. The high energy content and density of the rocket propellants will also require no additional chemical processing. For a 30-day mission on the Moon that requires a continuous 100 watts of power, the reactant mass and volume would be reduced by 15 and 50 percent, respectively, even without accounting for boiloff losses. The savings increase further with increasing transit times. A high-temperature, solid oxide, electrolyte-based fuel-cell configuration, that can rapidly combine rocket propellants - both monopropellant system with hydrazine and bi-propellant systems such as monomethyl hydrazine/ unsymmetrical dimethyl hydrazine (MMH/UDMH) and nitrogen tetroxide (NTO) to produce electrical energy - overcomes the severe drawbacks of earlier attempts in 1963-1967 of using fuel reforming and aqueous media. The electrical energy available from such a fuel cell operating at 60-percent efficiency is estimated to be 1,500 Wh/kg of reactants. The proposed use of zirconia-based oxide electrolyte at 800-1,000 C will permit continuous operation, very high power densities, and substantially increased efficiency of conversion over any of the earlier attempts. The solid oxide fuel cell is also tolerant to a wide range of environmental temperatures. Such a system is built for easy refueling for exploration missions and for the ability to turn on after several years of transit. Specific examples of future missions are in-situ landers on Europa and Titan that will face extreme radiation and temperature environments, flyby missions to Saturn, and landed missions on the Moon with 14 day/night cycles.

Association of zolpidem use and subsequent increased risk of epilepsy: a population-based, case-control study.

PubMed

Harnod, Tomor; Wang, Yu-Chiao; Sung, Fung-Chang; Kao, Chia-Hung

2014-10-01

To evaluate the impact of long-term zolpidem use on the subsequent risk of epilepsy. We used data from the National Health Insurance system of Taiwan to conduct a population-based case-control study. We identified 4,972 newly diagnosed epilepsy patients (ICD-9-CM code 345) for the period of 2005-2010 as cases. For each epilepsy case, 4 controls without a history of epilepsy were randomly selected from the rest of the population. Zolpidem was used as a predictor of epilepsy. Patients with epilepsy exhibited an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.86 (95% CI, 1.70-2.03) and were, therefore, more strongly associated with zolpidem exposure than control patients were. The adjusted OR of epilepsy increased with the increase of mean zolpidem exposure (g/y). Compared with the OR of nonusers, the adjusted OR was 1.64 (95% CI, 1.44-1.86) for those who had taken < 1.0 g/y of zolpidem and 2.38 (95% CI, 2.06-2.74) for those who had taken ≥ 20.0 g/y of zolpidem. An adjusted OR of 3.55 (95% CI, 2.94-4.28) was noted to be associated with epilepsy when users had stopped taking the drug less than 7 days earlier. The estimated risk declined to an OR of 1.62 (95% CI, 1.47-1.78) when users had stopped taking the drug more than 90 days earlier. This population-based, retrospective case-control study revealed a possible increase in epilepsy risk with zolpidem use, at either typical or supratherapeutic doses. These findings might stimulate public interest in safety issues regarding zolpidem use. © Copyright 2014 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Automated detection of esophageal dysplasia in in vivo optical coherence tomography images of the human esophagus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassinopoulos, Michalis; Dong, Jing; Tearney, Guillermo J.; Pitris, Costas

2018-02-01

Catheter-based Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) devices allow real-time and comprehensive imaging of the human esophagus. Hence, they provide the potential to overcome some of the limitations of endoscopy and biopsy, allowing earlier diagnosis and better prognosis for esophageal adenocarcinoma patients. However, the large number of images produced during every scan makes manual evaluation of the data exceedingly difficult. In this study, we propose a fully automated tissue characterization algorithm, capable of discriminating normal tissue from Barrett's Esophagus (BE) and dysplasia through entire three-dimensional (3D) data sets, acquired in vivo. The method is based on both the estimation of the scatterer size of the esophageal epithelial cells, using the bandwidth of the correlation of the derivative (COD) method, as well as intensity-based characteristics. The COD method can effectively estimate the scatterer size of the esophageal epithelium cells in good agreement with the literature. As expected, both the mean scatterer size and its standard deviation increase with increasing severity of disease (i.e. from normal to BE to dysplasia). The differences in the distribution of scatterer size for each tissue type are statistically significant, with a p value of < 0.0001. However, the scatterer size by itself cannot be used to accurately classify the various tissues. With the addition of intensity-based statistics the correct classification rates for all three tissue types range from 83 to 100% depending on the lesion size.

Relationship of red and photographic infrared spectral radiances to alfalfa biomass, forage water content, percentage canopy cover, and severity of drought stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tucker, C. J.; Elgin, J. H., Jr.; Mcmurtrey, J. E., III

1979-01-01

Red and photographic infrared spectral data were collected using a handheld radiometer for two cuttings of alfalfa. Significant linear and non-linear correlation coefficients were found between the spectral variables and plant height, biomass, forage water content, and estimated canopy cover for the earlier alfalfa cutting. The alfalfa of later cutting experienced a period of severe drought stress which limited growth. The spectral variables were found to be highly correlated with the estimated drought scores for this alfalfa cutting.

Why Wait?

PubMed Central

Loughran, David S.; Zissimopoulos, Julie M.

2012-01-01

We use data from the earlier and later cohorts of the NLSY to estimate the effect of marriage and childbearing on wages. Our estimates imply that marriage lowers female wages 2–4 percent in the year of marriage. Marriage also lowers the wage growth of men and women by about two and four percentage points, respectively. A first birth lowers female wages 2-3 percent, but has no effect on wage growth. Male wages are unaffected by childbearing. These findings suggest that early marriage and childbearing can lead to substantial decreases in lifetime earnings. PMID:22993452

The Hellenic Subduction Zone: A tomographic image and its geodynamic implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spakman, W.; Wortel, M. J. R.; Vlaar, N. J.

1988-01-01

New tomographic images of the Hellenic subduction zone demonstrate slab penetration in the Aegean Upper Mantle to depths of at least 600 km. Beneath Greece the lower part of the slab appears to be detached at a depth of about 200 km whereas it still seems to be unruptured beneath the southern Aegean. Schematically we derive minimum time estimates for the duration of the Hellenic subduction zone that range from 26 to 40 Ma. This is considerably longer than earlier estimates which vary between 5 and about 13 Ma.

Combined Heat and Power Market Potential for Opportunity Fuels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, David; Lemar, Paul

This report estimates the potential for opportunity fuel combined heat and power (CHP) applications in the United States, and provides estimates for the technical and economic market potential compared to those included in an earlier report. An opportunity fuel is any type of fuel that is not widely used when compared to traditional fossil fuels. Opportunity fuels primarily consist of biomass fuels, industrial waste products and fossil fuel derivatives. These fuels have the potential to be an economically viable source of power generation in various CHP applications.

A revised estimate of the risk of carcinogenesis from x-rays to scoliosis patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, P.S.; Gregg, E.C.

A considerable amount of concern has been felt recently for the risk of carcinogenesis from x-rays to scoliosis patients. This paper re-evaluates risk in quantitative terms by using some data measured by us and other data recently published in the literature. The risks are considerably smaller than had been estimated earlier. Compared with the natural incidence of cancer in the general population, the cumulative additional risk for scoliosis patients varies from 0.2% for breast carcinoma to 5% for leukemia.

Minimum-norm cortical source estimation in layered head models is robust against skull conductivity error☆☆☆

PubMed Central

Stenroos, Matti; Hauk, Olaf

2013-01-01

The conductivity profile of the head has a major effect on EEG signals, but unfortunately the conductivity for the most important compartment, skull, is only poorly known. In dipole modeling studies, errors in modeled skull conductivity have been considered to have a detrimental effect on EEG source estimation. However, as dipole models are very restrictive, those results cannot be generalized to other source estimation methods. In this work, we studied the sensitivity of EEG and combined MEG + EEG source estimation to errors in skull conductivity using a distributed source model and minimum-norm (MN) estimation. We used a MEG/EEG modeling set-up that reflected state-of-the-art practices of experimental research. Cortical surfaces were segmented and realistically-shaped three-layer anatomical head models were constructed, and forward models were built with Galerkin boundary element method while varying the skull conductivity. Lead-field topographies and MN spatial filter vectors were compared across conductivities, and the localization and spatial spread of the MN estimators were assessed using intuitive resolution metrics. The results showed that the MN estimator is robust against errors in skull conductivity: the conductivity had a moderate effect on amplitudes of lead fields and spatial filter vectors, but the effect on corresponding morphologies was small. The localization performance of the EEG or combined MEG + EEG MN estimator was only minimally affected by the conductivity error, while the spread of the estimate varied slightly. Thus, the uncertainty with respect to skull conductivity should not prevent researchers from applying minimum norm estimation to EEG or combined MEG + EEG data. Comparing our results to those obtained earlier with dipole models shows that general judgment on the performance of an imaging modality should not be based on analysis with one source estimation method only. PMID:23639259

Estimating lifetime and age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer.

PubMed

Wun, L M; Merrill, R M; Feuer, E J

1998-01-01

Lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer provide a useful summary to the public of the current cancer risk and how this risk compares with earlier periods and among select subgroups of society. These reported estimates, commonly quoted in the popular press, have the potential to promote early detection efforts, to increase cancer awareness, and to serve as an aid in study planning. However, they can also be easily misunderstood and frightening to the general public. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute and the American Cancer Society have recently begun including in annual reports lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. These risk estimates are based on incidence rates that reflect new cases of the cancer in a population free of the cancer. To compute these estimates involves a cancer prevalence adjustment that is computed cross-sectionally from current incidence and mortality data derived within a multiple decrement life table. This paper presents a detailed description of the methodology for deriving lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. In addition, an extension is made which, using a triple decrement life table, adjusts for a surgical procedure that removes individuals from the risk of developing a given cancer. Two important results which provide insights into the basic methodology are included in the discussion. First, the lifetime risk estimate does not depend on the cancer prevalence adjustment, although this is not the case for age-conditional risk estimates. Second, the lifetime risk estimate is always smaller when it is corrected for a surgical procedure that takes people out of the risk pool to develop the cancer. The methodology is applied to corpus and uterus NOS cancers, with a correction made for hysterectomy prevalence. The interpretation and limitations of risk estimates are also discussed.

Radiation Resistance of the U(Al, Si)3 Alloy: Ion-Induced Disordering

PubMed Central

Yaniv, Gili; Horak, Pavel; Vacik, Jiri; Mykytenko, Natalia; Rafailov, Gennady; Dahan, Itzchak; Fuks, David; Kiv, Arik

2018-01-01

During the exploitation of nuclear reactors, various U-Al based ternary intermetallides are formed in the fuel-cladding interaction layer. Structure and physical properties of these intermetallides determine the radiation resistance of cladding and, ultimately, the reliability and lifetime of the nuclear reactor. In current research, U(Al, Si)3 composition was studied as a potential constituent of an interaction layer. Phase content of the alloy of an interest was ordered U(Al, Si)3, structure of which was reported earlier, and pure Al (constituting less than 20 vol % of the alloy). This alloy was investigated prior and after the irradiation performed by Ar ions at 30 keV. The irradiation was performed on the transmission electron microscopy (TEM, JEOL, Japan) samples, characterized before and after the irradiation process. Irradiation induced disorder accompanied by stress relief. Furthermore, it was found that there is a dose threshold for disordering of the crystalline matter in the irradiated region. Irradiation at doses equal or higher than this threshold resulted in almost solely disordered phase. Using the program “Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter” (SRIM), the parameters of penetration of Ar ions into the irradiated samples were estimated. Based on these estimations, the dose threshold for ion-induced disordering of the studied material was assessed. PMID:29393870

An interview-based approach to assess sea turtle bycatch in Italian waters.

PubMed

Lucchetti, Alessandro; Vasapollo, Claudio; Virgili, Massimo

2017-01-01

The loggerhead sea turtle ( Caretta caretta , Linnaeus, 1758) is the most abundant sea turtle species in the Mediterranean Sea, where commercial fishing appears to be the main driver of mortality. So far, information on sea turtle bycatch in Italy is limited both in space and time due to logistical problems in data collected through onboard observations and on a limited number of vessels involved. In the present study, sea turtle bycatch in Italian waters was examined by collecting fishermen's information on turtle bycatch through an interview-based approach. Their replies enabled the identification of bycatch hotspots in relation to area, season and to the main gear types. The most harmful fishing gears resulted to be trawl nets, showing the highest probabilities of turtle bycatch with a hotspot in the Adriatic Sea, followed by longlines in the Ionian Sea and in the Sicily Channel. Estimates obtained by the present results showed that more than 52,000 capture events and 10,000 deaths occurred in Italian waters in 2014, highlighting a more alarming scenario than earlier studies. The work shows that in case of poor data from other sources, direct questioning of fishermen and stakeholders could represent a useful and cost-effective approach capable of providing sufficient data to estimate annual bycatch rates and identify high-risk gear/location/season combinations.

Statistical correlations of shear wave velocity and penetration resistance for soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dikmen, Ünal

2009-03-01

In this paper, the correlation between shear wave velocity and standard penetration test blow counts (SPT-N) is investigated. The study focused primarily on the correlation of SPT-N and shear wave velocity (Vs) for several soil categories: all soils, sand, silt and clay-type soils. New empirical formulae are suggested to correlate SPT-N and Vs, based on a dataset collected in a part of Eskişehir settlement in the western central Anatolia region of Turkey. The formulae are based on geotechnical soundings and active and passive seismic experiments. The new and previously suggested formulae showing correlations between uncorrected SPT-N and Vs have been compared and evaluated by using the same dataset. The results suggest that better correlations in estimation of Vs are acquired when the uncorrected blow counts are used. The blow count is a major parameter and the soil type has no significant influence on the results. In cohesive soils, the plasticity contents and, in non-cohesive soils except for gravels, the graded contents have no significant effect on the estimation of Vs. The results support most of the conclusions of earlier studies. These practical relationships developed between SPT-N and Vs should be used with caution in geotechnical engineering and should be checked against measured Vs.

Radiation Resistance of the U(Al, Si)₃ Alloy: Ion-Induced Disordering.

PubMed

Meshi, Louisa; Yaniv, Gili; Horak, Pavel; Vacik, Jiri; Mykytenko, Natalia; Rafailov, Gennady; Dahan, Itzchak; Fuks, David; Kiv, Arik

2018-02-02

During the exploitation of nuclear reactors, various U-Al based ternary intermetallides are formed in the fuel-cladding interaction layer. Structure and physical properties of these intermetallides determine the radiation resistance of cladding and, ultimately, the reliability and lifetime of the nuclear reactor. In current research, U(Al, Si)₃ composition was studied as a potential constituent of an interaction layer. Phase content of the alloy of an interest was ordered U(Al, Si)₃, structure of which was reported earlier, and pure Al (constituting less than 20 vol % of the alloy). This alloy was investigated prior and after the irradiation performed by Ar ions at 30 keV. The irradiation was performed on the transmission electron microscopy (TEM, JEOL, Japan) samples, characterized before and after the irradiation process. Irradiation induced disorder accompanied by stress relief. Furthermore, it was found that there is a dose threshold for disordering of the crystalline matter in the irradiated region. Irradiation at doses equal or higher than this threshold resulted in almost solely disordered phase. Using the program "Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter" (SRIM), the parameters of penetration of Ar ions into the irradiated samples were estimated. Based on these estimations, the dose threshold for ion-induced disordering of the studied material was assessed.

Relaxing the closure assumption in single-season occupancy models: staggered arrival and departure times

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, William L.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2013-01-01

Occupancy statistical models that account for imperfect detection have proved very useful in several areas of ecology, including species distribution and spatial dynamics, disease ecology, and ecological responses to climate change. These models are based on the collection of multiple samples at each of a number of sites within a given season, during which it is assumed the species is either absent or present and available for detection while each sample is taken. However, for some species, individuals are only present or available for detection seasonally. We present a statistical model that relaxes the closure assumption within a season by permitting staggered entry and exit times for the species of interest at each site. Based on simulation, our open model eliminates bias in occupancy estimators and in some cases increases precision. The power to detect the violation of closure is high if detection probability is reasonably high. In addition to providing more robust estimation of occupancy, this model permits comparison of phenology across sites, species, or years, by modeling variation in arrival or departure probabilities. In a comparison of four species of amphibians in Maryland we found that two toad species arrived at breeding sites later in the season than a salamander and frog species, and departed from sites earlier.

A prospective earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eberhard, David A. J.; Zechar, J. Douglas; Wiemer, Stefan

2012-09-01

Since the beginning of 2009, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has been conducting an earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific. This experiment is an extension of the Kagan-Jackson experiments begun 15 years earlier and is a prototype for future global earthquake predictability experiments. At the beginning of each year, seismicity models make a spatially gridded forecast of the number of Mw≥ 5.8 earthquakes expected in the next year. For the three participating statistical models, we analyse the first two years of this experiment. We use likelihood-based metrics to evaluate the consistency of the forecasts with the observed target earthquakes and we apply measures based on Student's t-test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test to compare the forecasts. Overall, a simple smoothed seismicity model (TripleS) performs the best, but there are some exceptions that indicate continued experiments are vital to fully understand the stability of these models, the robustness of model selection and, more generally, earthquake predictability in this region. We also estimate uncertainties in our results that are caused by uncertainties in earthquake location and seismic moment. Our uncertainty estimates are relatively small and suggest that the evaluation metrics are relatively robust. Finally, we consider the implications of our results for a global earthquake forecast experiment.

A suggested periodic table up to Z≤ 172, based on Dirac-Fock calculations on atoms and ions.

PubMed

Pyykkö, Pekka

2011-01-07

Extended Average Level (EAL) Dirac-Fock calculations on atoms and ions agree with earlier work in that a rough shell-filling order for the elements 119-172 is 8s < 5g≤ 8p(1/2) < 6f < 7d < 9s < 9p(1/2) < 8p(3/2). The present Periodic Table develops further that of Fricke, Greiner and Waber [Theor. Chim. Acta 1971, 21, 235] by formally assigning the elements 121-164 to (nlj) slots on the basis of the electron configurations of their ions. Simple estimates are made for likely maximum oxidation states, i, of these elements M in their MX(i) compounds, such as i = 6 for UF(6). Particularly high i are predicted for the 6f elements.

Comparison of multi-subject ICA methods for analysis of fMRI data

PubMed Central

Erhardt, Erik Barry; Rachakonda, Srinivas; Bedrick, Edward; Allen, Elena; Adali, Tülay; Calhoun, Vince D.

2010-01-01

Spatial independent component analysis (ICA) applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data identifies functionally connected networks by estimating spatially independent patterns from their linearly mixed fMRI signals. Several multi-subject ICA approaches estimating subject-specific time courses (TCs) and spatial maps (SMs) have been developed, however there has not yet been a full comparison of the implications of their use. Here, we provide extensive comparisons of four multi-subject ICA approaches in combination with data reduction methods for simulated and fMRI task data. For multi-subject ICA, the data first undergo reduction at the subject and group levels using principal component analysis (PCA). Comparisons of subject-specific, spatial concatenation, and group data mean subject-level reduction strategies using PCA and probabilistic PCA (PPCA) show that computationally intensive PPCA is equivalent to PCA, and that subject-specific and group data mean subject-level PCA are preferred because of well-estimated TCs and SMs. Second, aggregate independent components are estimated using either noise free ICA or probabilistic ICA (PICA). Third, subject-specific SMs and TCs are estimated using back-reconstruction. We compare several direct group ICA (GICA) back-reconstruction approaches (GICA1-GICA3) and an indirect back-reconstruction approach, spatio-temporal regression (STR, or dual regression). Results show the earlier group ICA (GICA1) approximates STR, however STR has contradictory assumptions and may show mixed-component artifacts in estimated SMs. Our evidence-based recommendation is to use GICA3, introduced here, with subject-specific PCA and noise-free ICA, providing the most robust and accurate estimated SMs and TCs in addition to offering an intuitive interpretation. PMID:21162045

Gravity-darkening exponents in semi-detached binary systems from their photometric observations. II.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djurašević, G.; Rovithis-Livaniou, H.; Rovithis, P.; Georgiades, N.; Erkapić, S.; Pavlović, R.

2006-01-01

This second part of our study concerning gravity-darkening presents the results for 8 semi-detached close binary systems. From the light-curve analysis of these systems the exponent of the gravity-darkening (GDE) for the Roche lobe filling components has been empirically derived. The method used for the light-curve analysis is based on Roche geometry, and enables simultaneous estimation of the systems' parameters and the gravity-darkening exponents. Our analysis is restricted to the black-body approximation which can influence in some degree the parameter estimation. The results of our analysis are: 1) For four of the systems, namely: TX UMa, β Per, AW Cam and TW Cas, there is a very good agreement between empirically estimated and theoretically predicted values for purely convective envelopes. 2) For the AI Dra system, the estimated value of gravity-darkening exponent is greater, and for UX Her, TW And and XZ Pup lesser than corresponding theoretical predictions, but for all mentioned systems the obtained values of the gravity-darkening exponent are quite close to the theoretically expected values. 3) Our analysis has proved generally that with the correction of the previously estimated mass ratios of the components within some of the analysed systems, the theoretical predictions of the gravity-darkening exponents for stars with convective envelopes are highly reliable. The anomalous values of the GDE found in some earlier studies of these systems can be considered as the consequence of the inappropriate method used to estimate the GDE. 4) The empirical estimations of GDE given in Paper I and in the present study indicate that in the light-curve analysis one can apply the recent theoretical predictions of GDE with high confidence for stars with both convective and radiative envelopes.

Why are you late? Investigating the role of time management in time-based prospective memory.

PubMed

Waldum, Emily R; McDaniel, Mark A

2016-08-01

Time-based prospective memory tasks (TBPM) are those that are to be performed at a specific future time. Contrary to typical laboratory TBPM tasks (e.g., hit the Z key every 5 min), many real-world TBPM tasks require more complex time-management processes. For instance, to attend an appointment on time, one must estimate the duration of the drive to the appointment and then use this estimate to create and execute a secondary TBPM intention (e.g., "I need to start driving by 1:30 to make my 2:00 appointment on time"). Future under- and overestimates of drive time can lead to inefficient TBPM performance with the former lending to missed appointments and the latter to long stints in the waiting room. Despite the common occurrence of complex TBPM tasks in everyday life, to date, no studies have investigated how components of time management, including time estimation, affect behavior in such complex TBPM tasks. Therefore, the current study aimed to investigate timing biases in both older and younger adults and, further, to determine how such biases along with additional time management components including planning and plan fidelity influence complex TBPM performance. Results suggest for the first time that younger and older adults do not always utilize similar timing strategies, and as a result, can produce differential timing biases under the exact same environmental conditions. These timing biases, in turn, play a vital role in how efficiently both younger and older adults perform a later TBPM task that requires them to utilize their earlier time estimate. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Estimation of a Killer Whale (Orcinus orca) Population’s Diet Using Sequencing Analysis of DNA from Feces

PubMed Central

Ford, Michael J.; Hempelmann, Jennifer; Hanson, M. Bradley; Ayres, Katherine L.; Baird, Robin W.; Emmons, Candice K.; Lundin, Jessica I.; Schorr, Gregory S.; Wasser, Samuel K.; Park, Linda K.

2016-01-01

Estimating diet composition is important for understanding interactions between predators and prey and thus illuminating ecosystem function. The diet of many species, however, is difficult to observe directly. Genetic analysis of fecal material collected in the field is therefore a useful tool for gaining insight into wild animal diets. In this study, we used high-throughput DNA sequencing to quantitatively estimate the diet composition of an endangered population of wild killer whales (Orcinus orca) in their summer range in the Salish Sea. We combined 175 fecal samples collected between May and September from five years between 2006 and 2011 into 13 sample groups. Two known DNA composition control groups were also created. Each group was sequenced at a ~330bp segment of the 16s gene in the mitochondrial genome using an Illumina MiSeq sequencing system. After several quality controls steps, 4,987,107 individual sequences were aligned to a custom sequence database containing 19 potential fish prey species and the most likely species of each fecal-derived sequence was determined. Based on these alignments, salmonids made up >98.6% of the total sequences and thus of the inferred diet. Of the six salmonid species, Chinook salmon made up 79.5% of the sequences, followed by coho salmon (15%). Over all years, a clear pattern emerged with Chinook salmon dominating the estimated diet early in the summer, and coho salmon contributing an average of >40% of the diet in late summer. Sockeye salmon appeared to be occasionally important, at >18% in some sample groups. Non-salmonids were rarely observed. Our results are consistent with earlier results based on surface prey remains, and confirm the importance of Chinook salmon in this population’s summer diet. PMID:26735849

Exploring the Usefulness of MISR-HR Products to Estimate Maize Crop Extent and Using Field Evidence to Evaluate the Results in South Africa's Free State Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verstraete, M. M.; Knox, N. M.; Hunt, L. A.; Kleyn, L.

2014-12-01

The MISR instrument on NASA's Terra platform has been operating for almost 15 years. Standard products are generated at a spatial resolution of 1.1 km or coarser, but a recently developed method to re-analyze the Level-1B2 data allows the retrieval of biogeophysical products at the native spatial resolution of the instrument (275 m). This development opens new opportunities to better address issues such as the management of agricultural production and food security. South African maize production is of great economic and social importance, not only nationally, but on the global market too, being one of the top ten maize producing countries. Seasonal maize production statistics are currently based on a combination of field measurements and estimates derived from manually digitizing high resolution imagery from the SPOT satellite. The field measurements are collected using the Producer Independent Crop Estimate System (PICES) developed by Crop Estimates Committee of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. There is a strong desire to improve the quality of these statistics, to generate those earlier, and to automate the process to encompass larger areas. This paper will explore the feasibility of using the MISR-HR spectral and directional products, combined with the finer spatial resolution and the relatively frequent coverage afforded by that instrument, to address these needs. The study area is based in the Free State, South Africa, one of the primary maize growing areas in the country, and took place during the 2012-2013 summer growing season. The significance of the outcomes will be evaluated in the context of the 14+ years of available MISR data.

Estimation of a Killer Whale (Orcinus orca) Population's Diet Using Sequencing Analysis of DNA from Feces.

PubMed

Ford, Michael J; Hempelmann, Jennifer; Hanson, M Bradley; Ayres, Katherine L; Baird, Robin W; Emmons, Candice K; Lundin, Jessica I; Schorr, Gregory S; Wasser, Samuel K; Park, Linda K

2016-01-01

Estimating diet composition is important for understanding interactions between predators and prey and thus illuminating ecosystem function. The diet of many species, however, is difficult to observe directly. Genetic analysis of fecal material collected in the field is therefore a useful tool for gaining insight into wild animal diets. In this study, we used high-throughput DNA sequencing to quantitatively estimate the diet composition of an endangered population of wild killer whales (Orcinus orca) in their summer range in the Salish Sea. We combined 175 fecal samples collected between May and September from five years between 2006 and 2011 into 13 sample groups. Two known DNA composition control groups were also created. Each group was sequenced at a ~330bp segment of the 16s gene in the mitochondrial genome using an Illumina MiSeq sequencing system. After several quality controls steps, 4,987,107 individual sequences were aligned to a custom sequence database containing 19 potential fish prey species and the most likely species of each fecal-derived sequence was determined. Based on these alignments, salmonids made up >98.6% of the total sequences and thus of the inferred diet. Of the six salmonid species, Chinook salmon made up 79.5% of the sequences, followed by coho salmon (15%). Over all years, a clear pattern emerged with Chinook salmon dominating the estimated diet early in the summer, and coho salmon contributing an average of >40% of the diet in late summer. Sockeye salmon appeared to be occasionally important, at >18% in some sample groups. Non-salmonids were rarely observed. Our results are consistent with earlier results based on surface prey remains, and confirm the importance of Chinook salmon in this population's summer diet.

Project Icarus: Preliminary Thoughts on the Selection of Probes and Instruments for an Icarus-style Interstellar Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crawford, Ian A.

2016-06-01

In this paper we outline the range of probes and scientific instruments that will be required in order for Icarus to fulfill its scientific mission of exploring a nearby star, its attendant planetary system, and the intervening interstellar medium. Based on this preliminary analysis, we estimate that the minimum total Icarus scientific payload mass (i.e. the mass of probes and instruments which must be decelerated to rest in the target system to enable a meaningful programme of scientific investigation) will be in the region of 100 tonnes. Of this, approximately 10 tonnes would be allocated for cruise-phase science instruments, and about 35 tonnes (i.e. the average of estimated lower and upper limits of 28 and 41 tonnes) would be contributed by the intra-system science payload itself (i.e. the dry mass of the stellar and planetary probes and their instruments). The remaining ~55 tonnes is allocated for the sub-probe intra-system propulsion requirements (crudely estimated from current Solar System missions; detailed modelling of sub-probe propulsion systems will be needed to refine this figure). The overall mass contributed by the science payload to the total that must be decelerated from the interstellar cruise velocity will be considerably more than 100 tonnes, however, as allowance must be made for the payload structural and infrastructural elements required to support, deploy, and communicate with the science probes and instruments. Based on the earlier Daedalus study, we estimate another factor of two to allow for these components. Pending the outcome of more detailed studies, it therefore appears that an overall science-related payload mass of ~200 tonnes will be required. This paper is a submission of the Project Icarus Study Group.

Digital radiographic evaluation of mandibular third molar for age estimation in young adults and adolescents of South Indian population using modified Demirjian's method

PubMed Central

Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Koganti, Ravichandra; Kalyan, Siva V.; Tircouveluri, Saritha; Singh, Johar Rajvinder; Srinivasulu, Enganti

2014-01-01

In recent years, it has become increasingly important to determine the age of living people for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility and for many other social events such as birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army and retirement Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the developmental stages of mandibular third molar for estimation of dental age (DA) in different age groups and to evaluate the possible correlation between DA and chronological age (CA) in South Indian population. Materials and Methods: Digital orthopantomography of 330 subjects (165 males, 165 females) who fit the study and the criteria were obtained. Assessment of mandibular third molar development was performed using Demirjian et al., modified method and DA was assessed using tooth specific stages. Results and Discussion: The present study showed a significant correlation between DA and CA in both males and females. Third molar development commenced around 9 years and root completion takes place around 18.9 years in males and in females 9 years and 18.6 years respectively. Demirjian modified method underestimated the mean age of males by 0.8 years and females by 0.5 years and also showed that females mature earlier than males in selected population. Conclusion: Digital radiographic assessment of mandibular third molar development can be used to generate mean DA using Demirjian modified method and also the estimated age range for an individual of unknown CA. Since the Demirjian method is based on French-Canadian population, to enhance the accuracy of forensic age estimates based on third molar development, the use of population-specific standards is recommended. PMID:25177143

Digital radiographic evaluation of mandibular third molar for age estimation in young adults and adolescents of South Indian population using modified Demirjian's method.

PubMed

Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Koganti, Ravichandra; Kalyan, Siva V; Tircouveluri, Saritha; Singh, Johar Rajvinder; Srinivasulu, Enganti

2014-09-01

In recent years, it has become increasingly important to determine the age of living people for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility and for many other social events such as birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army and retirement. The aim of this study was to assess the developmental stages of mandibular third molar for estimation of dental age (DA) in different age groups and to evaluate the possible correlation between DA and chronological age (CA) in South Indian population. Digital orthopantomography of 330 subjects (165 males, 165 females) who fit the study and the criteria were obtained. Assessment of mandibular third molar development was performed using Demirjian et al., modified method and DA was assessed using tooth specific stages. The present study showed a significant correlation between DA and CA in both males and females. Third molar development commenced around 9 years and root completion takes place around 18.9 years in males and in females 9 years and 18.6 years respectively. Demirjian modified method underestimated the mean age of males by 0.8 years and females by 0.5 years and also showed that females mature earlier than males in selected population. Digital radiographic assessment of mandibular third molar development can be used to generate mean DA using Demirjian modified method and also the estimated age range for an individual of unknown CA. Since the Demirjian method is based on French-Canadian population, to enhance the accuracy of forensic age estimates based on third molar development, the use of population-specific standards is recommended.

Unveiling acoustic physics of the CMB using nonparametric estimation of the temperature angular power spectrum for Planck

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aghamousa, Amir; Shafieloo, Arman; Arjunwadkar, Mihir

2015-02-01

Estimation of the angular power spectrum is one of the important steps in Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data analysis. Here, we present a nonparametric estimate of the temperature angular power spectrum for the Planck 2013 CMB data. The method implemented in this work is model-independent, and allows the data, rather than the model, to dictate the fit. Since one of the main targets of our analysis is to test the consistency of the ΛCDM model with Planck 2013 data, we use the nuisance parameters associated with the best-fit ΛCDM angular power spectrum to remove foreground contributions from the data atmore » multipoles ℓ ≥50. We thus obtain a combined angular power spectrum data set together with the full covariance matrix, appropriately weighted over frequency channels. Our subsequent nonparametric analysis resolves six peaks (and five dips) up to ℓ ∼1850 in the temperature angular power spectrum. We present uncertainties in the peak/dip locations and heights at the 95% confidence level. We further show how these reflect the harmonicity of acoustic peaks, and can be used for acoustic scale estimation. Based on this nonparametric formalism, we found the best-fit ΛCDM model to be at 36% confidence distance from the center of the nonparametric confidence set—this is considerably larger than the confidence distance (9%) derived earlier from a similar analysis of the WMAP 7-year data. Another interesting result of our analysis is that at low multipoles, the Planck data do not suggest any upturn, contrary to the expectation based on the integrated Sachs-Wolfe contribution in the best-fit ΛCDM cosmology.« less

Personality Factors and Occupational Specialty Choice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borges, Nicole J.; Jones, Bonnie J.

This study is a continuation of an earlier investigation of personality and medical specialty choice. The earlier study determined that personality differences existed among family practitioners, anesthesiologists, and general surgeons. Based on this initial research, an attempt was made to answer the question of how the personality factors of…

Kinetic studies of halon replacements.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orkin, Vladimir L.

2013-04-01

Despite their excellence as fire suppressants, the production of halons (bromofluorocarbons) is being phased out because of the danger they pose to the Earth's stratospheric ozone layer. A number of bromine free substances have been proposed and tested, but the effort to find replacements continues to return to bromine-containing compounds because of the properties of bromine as a chemically active flame suppressant. The primary approach to this problem has been to test candidate replacement compounds that have short atmospheric lifetimes or/and lack bromine, the halogen atoms that catalyze ozone destruction. Various chemical classes (alkanes, ethers, alkenes) have been studied both earlier and recently. The reaction with atmospheric hydroxyl radicals dictates the residence time and accumulation in the atmosphere of all potential halon replacements. Therefore, we improved a flash photolysis - resonance fluorescence apparatus to provide the most accurate OH reaction rate constants measured over the atmospheric temperatures. Supplementary UV absorption spectra were measured to allow the estimation of ODPs. Although a thorough 3-D modeling is required to assess ODPs, the simplified estimations can be made based on the compounds lifetimes.

The Initiation of the Southern Central Great Barrier Reef: Multiproxy Study on Periplatform Sediments From ODP Site 1195 on the Marion Plateau (NE Australia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubois, N.; Kindler, P.; Spezzaferri, S.; Coric, S.

2007-12-01

The sediments deposited at ODP Site 1195 (Marion Plateau, NE Australia) record synchronous shifts in their chemistry, mineralogy, grain size and colour at 6 meters below sea floor. These significant changes are interpreted to reflect the onset of the southern province of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). An increased deposition of carbonate-rich sediments of neritic origin, coincident with a decline in both sedimentation rate and terrigenous input, is attributed to inshore trapping of materials by the reefs. Based on an age model combining magnetostratigraphic and biostratigraphic data, we propose that the southern province of the GBR initiated between 560 and 670 kyr B.P. Our best estimate concurs with previous studies reporting an age between 500 and 930 kyr B.P., albeit constraining more tightly these earlier age estimates. However, it does not support research placing the birth of the GBR in Marine Isotope Stage 11 (about 400 kyr B.P.), nor the recent theory of a worldwide modern reef development at that time.

Estimation of refueling emissions based on theoretical model and effects of E10 fuel on refueling and evaporative emissions from gasoline cars.

PubMed

Yamada, Hiroyuki; Inomata, Satoshi; Tanimoto, Hiroshi; Hata, Hiroo; Tonokura, Kenichi

2018-05-01

The effects of Reid vapor pressure (RVP) on refueling emissions and the effects of ethanol 10% (E10) fuel on refueling and evaporative emissions were observed using six cars and seven fuels. The results indicated that refueling emissions can be reproduced by a simple theoretical model in which fuel vapor in the empty space in the tank is pushed out by the refueling process. In this model, the vapor pressures of fuels can be estimated by the Clausius-Clapeyron equation as a function of temperature. We also evaluated E10 fuel in terms of refueling and evaporative emissions, excluding the effect of contamination of ethanol in the canister. E10 fuel had no effect on the refueling emissions in cases without onboard refueling vapor recovery. E10 showed increased permeation emissions in evaporative emissions because of the high permeability of ethanol. And with E10 fuel, breakthrough emissions appeared earlier but broke through slower than normal fuel. Finally, canisters could store more fuel vapor with E10 fuel. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distribution of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.; Gunther, K.; Moody, D.

2006-01-01

The US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) proposed delisting the Yellowstone grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) in November 2005. Part of that process required knowledge of the most current distribution of the species. Here, we update an earlier estimate of occupied range (1990–2000) with data through 2004. We used kernel estimators to develop distribution maps of occupied habitats based on initial sightings of unduplicated females (n = 481) with cubs of the year, locations of radiomarked bears (n = 170), and spatially unique locations of conflicts, confrontations, and mortalities (n = 1,075). Although each data set was constrained by potential sampling bias, together they provided insight into areas in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) currently occupied by grizzly bears. The current distribution of 37,258 km2 (1990–2004) extends beyond the distribution map generated with data from 1990–2000 (34,416 km2 ). Range expansion is particularly evident in parts of the Caribou–Targhee National Forest in Idaho and north of Spanish Peaks on the Gallatin National Forest in Montana.

A generalized modal shock spectra method for spacecraft loads analysis. [internal loads in a spacecraft structure subjected to a dynamic launch environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trubert, M.; Salama, M.

1979-01-01

Unlike an earlier shock spectra approach, generalization permits an accurate elastic interaction between the spacecraft and launch vehicle to obtain accurate bounds on the spacecraft response and structural loads. In addition, the modal response from a previous launch vehicle transient analysis with or without a dummy spacecraft - is exploited to define a modal impulse as a simple idealization of the actual forcing function. The idealized modal forcing function is then used to derive explicit expressions for an estimate of the bound on the spacecraft structural response and forces. Greater accuracy is achieved with the present method over the earlier shock spectra, while saving much computational effort over the transient analysis.

Density-dependent recruitment of the bloater (Coregonus hoyi) in Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Edward H.; Eck, Gary W.

1992-01-01

Density-dependent recruitment of the bloater (Coregonus hoyi) in Lake Michigan during and after recovery of the population in about 1977-1983 was best reflected in the fit of the Beverton-Holt recruitment function to age -1 and -2 recruits and estimated eggs of parents surveyed with trawls. A lower growth rate and lower lipid content of bloaters at higher population densities and no evidence of cannibalism supported the conclusion that recruitment is resource limited when alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) abundance is low. Predation on larvae by alewives was indicated in earlier studies as the probable cause of depressed recruitment of bloaters before their recovery, which coincided with declining alewife abundance. This negative interaction masked any bloater stock-recruitment relation in the earlier period.

Research of Water Level Prediction for a Continuous Flood due to Typhoons Based on a Machine Learning Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakatsugawa, M.; Kobayashi, Y.; Okazaki, R.; Taniguchi, Y.

2017-12-01

This research aims to improve accuracy of water level prediction calculations for more effective river management. In August 2016, Hokkaido was visited by four typhoons, whose heavy rainfall caused severe flooding. In the Tokoro river basin of Eastern Hokkaido, the water level (WL) at the Kamikawazoe gauging station, which is at the lower reaches exceeded the design high-water level and the water rose to the highest level on record. To predict such flood conditions and mitigate disaster damage, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of prediction as well as to prolong the lead time (LT) required for disaster mitigation measures such as flood-fighting activities and evacuation actions by residents. There is the need to predict the river water level around the peak stage earlier and more accurately. Previous research dealing with WL prediction had proposed a method in which the WL at the lower reaches is estimated by the correlation with the WL at the upper reaches (hereinafter: "the water level correlation method"). Additionally, a runoff model-based method has been generally used in which the discharge is estimated by giving rainfall prediction data to a runoff model such as a storage function model and then the WL is estimated from that discharge by using a WL discharge rating curve (H-Q curve). In this research, an attempt was made to predict WL by applying the Random Forest (RF) method, which is a machine learning method that can estimate the contribution of explanatory variables. Furthermore, from the practical point of view, we investigated the prediction of WL based on a multiple correlation (MC) method involving factors using explanatory variables with high contribution in the RF method, and we examined the proper selection of explanatory variables and the extension of LT. The following results were found: 1) Based on the RF method tuned up by learning from previous floods, the WL for the abnormal flood case of August 2016 was properly predicted with a lead time of 6 h. 2) Based on the contribution of explanatory variables, factors were selected for the MC method. In this way, plausible prediction results were obtained.

Mass center estimation of a drag-free satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sanz Fernandez De Cordova, S.; Debra, D. B.

1975-01-01

The mass center location of a spinning drag-free satellite can be estimated because there is control required to accelerate the mass center along the axis of spin as long as there is some nutation in the spinning motion. Linear and nonlinear models are compared and observability discussed. Online estimation fails when nutation is damped so an offline mechanization is proposed. A new sensor has been designed to permit greater relative motion than was possible on the drag-free satellite flown in 1972 (JH-1). Experimental laboratory results using a spinning vehicle with the new sensor mounted 30 cm from a spherical air bearing support are presented which confirm earlier simulation results.

Analytical estimation show low depth-independent water loss due to vapor flux from deep aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selker, John S.

2017-06-01

Recent articles have provided estimates of evaporative flux from water tables in deserts that span 5 orders of magnitude. In this paper, we present an analytical calculation that indicates aquifer vapor flux to be limited to 0.01 mm/yr for sites where there is negligible recharge and the water table is well over 20 m below the surface. This value arises from the geothermal gradient, and therefore, is nearly independent of the actual depth of the aquifer. The value is in agreement with several numerical studies, but is 500 times lower than recently reported experimental values, and 100 times larger than an earlier analytical estimate.

Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study.

PubMed

Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

2015-01-01

Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis.

Comparison of Measured and Predicted Bioconcentration Estimates of Pharmaceuticals in Fish Plasma and Prediction of Chronic Risk.

PubMed

Nallani, Gopinath; Venables, Barney; Constantine, Lisa; Huggett, Duane

2016-05-01

Evaluation of the environmental risk of human pharmaceuticals is now a mandatory component in all new drug applications submitted for approval in EU. With >3000 drugs currently in use, it is not feasible to test each active ingredient, so prioritization is key. A recent review has listed nine prioritization approaches including the fish plasma model (FPM). The present paper focuses on comparison of measured and predicted fish plasma bioconcentration factors (BCFs) of four common over-the-counter/prescribed pharmaceuticals: norethindrone (NET), ibuprofen (IBU), verapamil (VER) and clozapine (CLZ). The measured data were obtained from the earlier published fish BCF studies. The measured BCF estimates of NET, IBU, VER and CLZ were 13.4, 1.4, 0.7 and 31.2, while the corresponding predicted BCFs (based log Kow at pH 7) were 19, 1.0, 7.6 and 30, respectively. These results indicate that the predicted BCFs matched well the measured values. The BCF estimates were used to calculate the human: fish plasma concentration ratios of each drug to predict potential risk to fish. The plasma ratio results show the following order of risk potential for fish: NET > CLZ > VER > IBU. The FPM has value in prioritizing pharmaceutical products for ecotoxicological assessments.

Uncertainties of fluxes and 13C / 12C ratios of atmospheric reactive-gas emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Sergey; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Jöckel, Patrick

2017-07-01

We provide a comprehensive review of the proxy data on the 13C / 12C ratios and uncertainties of emissions of reactive carbonaceous compounds into the atmosphere, with a focus on CO sources. Based on an evaluated set-up of the EMAC model, we derive the isotope-resolved data set of its emission inventory for the 1997-2005 period. Additionally, we revisit the calculus required for the correct derivation of uncertainties associated with isotope ratios of emission fluxes. The resulting δ13C of overall surface CO emission in 2000 of -(25. 2 ± 0. 7) ‰ is in line with previous bottom-up estimates and is less uncertain by a factor of 2. In contrast to this, we find that uncertainties of the respective inverse modelling estimates may be substantially larger due to the correlated nature of their derivation. We reckon the δ13C values of surface emissions of higher hydrocarbons to be within -24 to -27 ‰ (uncertainty typically below ±1 ‰), with an exception of isoprene and methanol emissions being close to -30 and -60 ‰, respectively. The isotope signature of ethane surface emission coincides with earlier estimates, but integrates very different source inputs. δ13C values are reported relative to V-PDB.

Assessment of Developing Intensity Duration Frequency Curves using Satellite Observations (Case Study)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ombadi, Mohammed; Nguyen, Phu; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2017-12-01

Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves are essential for the resilient design of infrastructures. Since their earlier development, IDF relationships have been derived using precipitation records from rainfall gauge stations. However, with the recent advancement in satellite observation of precipitation which provides near global coverage and high spatiotemporal resolution, it is worthy of attention to investigate the validity of utilizing the relatively short record length of satellite rainfall to generate robust IDF relationships. These satellite-based IDF can address the paucity of such information in the developing countries. Few studies have used satellite precipitation data in IDF development but mainly focused on merging satellite and gauge precipitation. In this study, however, IDF have been derived solely from satellite observations using PERSIANN-CDR (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record). The unique PERSIANN-CDR attributes of high spatial resolution (0.25°×0.25°), daily temporal resolution and a record dating back to 1983 allow for the investigation at fine resolution. The results are compared over most of the contiguous United States against NOAA Atlas 14. The impact of using different methods of sampling, distribution estimators and regionalization in the resulting relationships is investigated. Main challenges to estimate robust and accurate IDF from satellite observations are also highlighted.

The effects of delay duration on visual working memory for orientation.

PubMed

Shin, Hongsup; Zou, Qijia; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-12-01

We used a delayed-estimation paradigm to characterize the joint effects of set size (one, two, four, or six) and delay duration (1, 2, 3, or 6 s) on visual working memory for orientation. We conducted two experiments: one with delay durations blocked, another with delay durations interleaved. As dependent variables, we examined four model-free metrics of dispersion as well as precision estimates in four simple models. We tested for effects of delay time using analyses of variance, linear regressions, and nested model comparisons. We found significant effects of set size and delay duration on both model-free and model-based measures of dispersion. However, the effect of delay duration was much weaker than that of set size, dependent on the analysis method, and apparent in only a minority of subjects. The highest forgetting slope found in either experiment at any set size was a modest 1.14°/s. As secondary results, we found a low rate of nontarget reports, and significant estimation biases towards oblique orientations (but no dependence of their magnitude on either set size or delay duration). Relative stability of working memory even at higher set sizes is consistent with earlier results for motion direction and spatial frequency. We compare with a recent study that performed a very similar experiment.

Are cooler surfaces a cost-effect mitigation of urban heat islands?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pomerantz, Melvin

Much research has gone into technologies to mitigate urban heat islands by making urban surfaces cooler by increasing their albedos. To be practical, the benefit of the technology must be greater than its cost. Here, this report provides simple methods for quantifying the maxima of some benefits that albedo increases may provide. The method used is an extension of an earlier paper that estimated the maximum possible electrical energy saving achievable in an entire city in a year by a change of albedo of its surfaces. The present report estimates the maximum amounts and monetary savings of avoided CO 2more » emissions and the decreases in peak power demands. As examples, for several warm cities in California, a 0.2 increase in albedo of pavements is found to reduce CO 2 emissions by < 1 kg per m 2 per year. At the current price of CO 2 reduction in California, the monetary saving is < US$ 0.01 per year per m 2 modified. The resulting maximum peak-power reductions are estimated to be < 7% of the base power of the city. In conclusion, the magnitudes of the savings are such that decision-makers should choose carefully which urban heat island mitigation techniques are cost effective.« less

Are cooler surfaces a cost-effect mitigation of urban heat islands?

DOE PAGES

Pomerantz, Melvin

2017-04-20

Much research has gone into technologies to mitigate urban heat islands by making urban surfaces cooler by increasing their albedos. To be practical, the benefit of the technology must be greater than its cost. Here, this report provides simple methods for quantifying the maxima of some benefits that albedo increases may provide. The method used is an extension of an earlier paper that estimated the maximum possible electrical energy saving achievable in an entire city in a year by a change of albedo of its surfaces. The present report estimates the maximum amounts and monetary savings of avoided CO 2more » emissions and the decreases in peak power demands. As examples, for several warm cities in California, a 0.2 increase in albedo of pavements is found to reduce CO 2 emissions by < 1 kg per m 2 per year. At the current price of CO 2 reduction in California, the monetary saving is < US$ 0.01 per year per m 2 modified. The resulting maximum peak-power reductions are estimated to be < 7% of the base power of the city. In conclusion, the magnitudes of the savings are such that decision-makers should choose carefully which urban heat island mitigation techniques are cost effective.« less

Regression analysis of mixed panel count data with dependent terminal events.

PubMed

Yu, Guanglei; Zhu, Liang; Li, Yang; Sun, Jianguo; Robison, Leslie L

2017-05-10

Event history studies are commonly conducted in many fields, and a great deal of literature has been established for the analysis of the two types of data commonly arising from these studies: recurrent event data and panel count data. The former arises if all study subjects are followed continuously, while the latter means that each study subject is observed only at discrete time points. In reality, a third type of data, a mixture of the two types of the data earlier, may occur and furthermore, as with the first two types of the data, there may exist a dependent terminal event, which may preclude the occurrences of recurrent events of interest. This paper discusses regression analysis of mixed recurrent event and panel count data in the presence of a terminal event and an estimating equation-based approach is proposed for estimation of regression parameters of interest. In addition, the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator are established, and a simulation study conducted to assess the finite-sample performance of the proposed method suggests that it works well in practical situations. Finally, the methodology is applied to a childhood cancer study that motivated this study. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Erosion of the Laurentide region of North America by glacial and glaciofluvial processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, M.; Laine, E.P.

1985-01-01

Collection of seismic reflection data from continental margins and ocean basins surrounding North America makes it possible to estimate the amount of material eroded from the area formerly covered by Laurentide ice sheets since major glaciation began in North America. A minimum estimate is made of 1.62 ?? 106 km3, or an average 120 m of rock physically eroded from the Laurentide region. This figure is an order of magnitude higher than earlier estimates based on the volume of glacial drift, Cenozoic marine sediments, and modern sediment loads of rivers. Most of the sediment produced during Laurentide glaciation has already been transported to the oceans. The importance of continental glaciation as a geomorphic agency in North America may have to be reevaluated. Evidence from sedimentation rates in ocean basins surrounding Greenland and Antarctica suggests that sediment production, sediment transport, and possibly denudation by permanent ice caps may be substantially lower than by periodic ice caps, such as the Laurentide. Low rates of sediment survival from the time of the Permo-Carboniferous and Precambrian glaciations suggest that predominance of marine deposition during some glacial epochs results in shorter lived sediment because of preferential tectonism and cycling of oceanic crust versus continental crust. ?? 1985.

Distribution of boreal toad populations in relation to estimated UV-B dose in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hossack, B.R.; Diamond, S.A.; Corn, P.S.

2006-01-01

A recent increase in ultraviolet B radiation is one hypothesis advanced to explain suspected or documented declines of the boreal toad (Bufo boreas Baird and Girard, 1852) across much of the western USA, where some experiments have shown ambient UV-B can reduce embryo survival. We examined B. boreas occupancy relative to daily UV-B dose at 172 potential breeding sites in Glacier National Park, Montana, to assess whether UV-B limits the distribution of toads. Dose estimates were based on ground-level UV-B data and the effects of elevation, local topographic and vegetative features, and attenuation in the water column. We also examined temporal trends in surface UV-B and spring snowpack to determine whether populations are likely to have experienced increased UV-B exposure in recent decades. We found no support for the hypothesis that UV-B limits the distribution of populations in the park, even when we analyzed high-elevation ponds separately. Instead, toads were more likely to breed in water bodies with higher estimated UV-B doses. The lack of a detectable trend in surface UV-B since 1979, combined with earlier snow melt in the region and increasing forest density at high elevations, suggests B. boreas embryos and larvae likely have not experienced increased UV-B.

Developmental quotient to estimate intelligence in autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Kawabe, Kentaro; Kondo, Shizuka; Matsumoto, Miki; Seo, Kanae; Ochi, Marina; Oka, Yasunori; Horiuchi, Fumie; Ueno, Shu-Ichi

2016-10-01

Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are characterized by persistent deficits in social communication and social interaction across contexts, and are associated with restricted patterns of behavior. The developmental quotient (DQ) is based on the developmental age and chronological age of children. This study investigated the utility of the DQ to estimate cognitive ability in young children with ASD. The DQ and intelligence quotient (IQ) were assessed using the Kyoto Scale of Psychological Development 2001 (KSPD) and Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-III (WISC-III), respectively. The correlation between the DQ and IQ was then analyzed among children with ASD. We enrolled 18 children with ASD (16 boys, two girls; age, 63.6 ± 9.4 months; age range, 45-83 months). Overall, Cognitive-Adaptive and Language-Social DQ scores were significantly correlated with IQ score in the full scale, verbal, and performance domains. Full-scale IQ and overall DQ had a linear correlation (y = -22.747 + 1.177x, R 2 = 0.677, R = 0.823). The DQ scores obtained using the KSPD were a reasonable estimate of cognitive ability in children with ASD. The KSPD may be a useful alternative to the WISC-III for young children with ASD and could facilitate earlier assessment. © 2016 Japan Pediatric Society.

A scale space feature based registration technique for fusion of satellite imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raghavan, Srini; Cromp, Robert F.; Campbell, William C.

1997-01-01

Feature based registration is one of the most reliable methods to register multi-sensor images (both active and passive imagery) since features are often more reliable than intensity or radiometric values. The only situation where a feature based approach will fail is when the scene is completely homogenous or densely textural in which case a combination of feature and intensity based methods may yield better results. In this paper, we present some preliminary results of testing our scale space feature based registration technique, a modified version of feature based method developed earlier for classification of multi-sensor imagery. The proposed approach removes the sensitivity in parameter selection experienced in the earlier version as explained later.

Likelihood ratio meta-analysis: New motivation and approach for an old method.

PubMed

Dormuth, Colin R; Filion, Kristian B; Platt, Robert W

2016-03-01

A 95% confidence interval (CI) in an updated meta-analysis may not have the expected 95% coverage. If a meta-analysis is simply updated with additional data, then the resulting 95% CI will be wrong because it will not have accounted for the fact that the earlier meta-analysis failed or succeeded to exclude the null. This situation can be avoided by using the likelihood ratio (LR) as a measure of evidence that does not depend on type-1 error. We show how an LR-based approach, first advanced by Goodman, can be used in a meta-analysis to pool data from separate studies to quantitatively assess where the total evidence points. The method works by estimating the log-likelihood ratio (LogLR) function from each study. Those functions are then summed to obtain a combined function, which is then used to retrieve the total effect estimate, and a corresponding 'intrinsic' confidence interval. Using as illustrations the CAPRIE trial of clopidogrel versus aspirin in the prevention of ischemic events, and our own meta-analysis of higher potency statins and the risk of acute kidney injury, we show that the LR-based method yields the same point estimate as the traditional analysis, but with an intrinsic confidence interval that is appropriately wider than the traditional 95% CI. The LR-based method can be used to conduct both fixed effect and random effects meta-analyses, it can be applied to old and new meta-analyses alike, and results can be presented in a format that is familiar to a meta-analytic audience. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An empirical approach to estimate near-infra-red photon propagation and optically induced drug release in brain tissues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhu Verleker, Akshay; Fang, Qianqian; Choi, Mi-Ran; Clare, Susan; Stantz, Keith M.

2015-03-01

The purpose of this study is to develop an alternate empirical approach to estimate near-infra-red (NIR) photon propagation and quantify optically induced drug release in brain metastasis, without relying on computationally expensive Monte Carlo techniques (gold standard). Targeted drug delivery with optically induced drug release is a noninvasive means to treat cancers and metastasis. This study is part of a larger project to treat brain metastasis by delivering lapatinib-drug-nanocomplexes and activating NIR-induced drug release. The empirical model was developed using a weighted approach to estimate photon scattering in tissues and calibrated using a GPU based 3D Monte Carlo. The empirical model was developed and tested against Monte Carlo in optical brain phantoms for pencil beams (width 1mm) and broad beams (width 10mm). The empirical algorithm was tested against the Monte Carlo for different albedos along with diffusion equation and in simulated brain phantoms resembling white-matter (μs'=8.25mm-1, μa=0.005mm-1) and gray-matter (μs'=2.45mm-1, μa=0.035mm-1) at wavelength 800nm. The goodness of fit between the two models was determined using coefficient of determination (R-squared analysis). Preliminary results show the Empirical algorithm matches Monte Carlo simulated fluence over a wide range of albedo (0.7 to 0.99), while the diffusion equation fails for lower albedo. The photon fluence generated by empirical code matched the Monte Carlo in homogeneous phantoms (R2=0.99). While GPU based Monte Carlo achieved 300X acceleration compared to earlier CPU based models, the empirical code is 700X faster than the Monte Carlo for a typical super-Gaussian laser beam.

Factors Associated with Timing of Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy among HIV-1 Infected Adults in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

PubMed Central

Ogoina, Dimie

2015-01-01

Introduction Based on growing evidence mainly from countries outside Sub-Saharan Africa, the World Health Organisation (WHO) now recommends initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-infected individuals in developing countries when CD4 cell count (CD4+) is ≤ 500cells/ul. Nigeria accounts for about 14% of the estimated HIV/AIDS burden in Sub-Saharan Africa. We evaluated the factors associated with timing of initiation of ART among treatment-ineligible HIV-infected adults from Nigeria. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the hospital records of ART ineligible HIV-infected adults who enrolled into HIV care between January 2008 and December 2012 at two major tertiary hospitals in Bayelsa State, South-South Nigeria. Demographic, clinical and laboratories data were obtained at presentation, at each subsequent visit at 6 monthly intervals and at time of initiation of ART. Cox proportional regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were used to evaluate independent predictors of time to initiation of ART. Results Amongst the 280 study participants, 70.6% were females, 62.6% had CD4+ ≥500cells/ul, 48.4% had WHO HIV Stage 1 disease and 34.3% were lost to follow up. In a cohort of 180 participants followed up for ≥3months, participants with CD4+ of 351-500cells/ul and stage 2 disease were more likely to start ART earlier than those with CD4+ > 500cells/ul (Hazard ratio [HR]-1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] of 1.0-2.9) and stage 1 disease (HR-2.3 (95% CI-1.3-4.2) respectively. HIV-infected adults with faster CD4+ decay required earlier ART initiation, especially in the first year of follow up. Conclusion ART-ineligible HIV-infected adults on follow up in South-South Nigeria are more likely to require earlier initiation of ART if they have stage 2 HIV disease or CD4+ ≤500cells/ul at presentation. Our findings suggest faster progression of HIV-disease in these groups of individuals and corroborate the growing evidence in support for earlier initiation of ART. PMID:25933356

Mantle Volatiles and Global Carbon Flux and Budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.

2014-12-01

The global volcanic carbon flux to the surface of Earth is a fundamental parameter in understanding the global carbon cycle that includes deep carbon as well as the degassing history of the mantle. The flux has been estimated before (e.g., Marty and Tolstikhin, 1998). Recent progress has significantly revised some of the parameters used in the estimation, e.g., the oceanic 3He flux has been re-evaluated (Bianchi et al., 2010) to be only about half of the earlier widely-used estimate, and numerous subaerial volcanic degassing data are now available. In this report, a new attempt is made to assess the global carbon flux and budget. Rather than dividing the carbon flux by categories of MORB, Plumes and Arcs, we estimate the global carbon flux by considering oceanic and subaerial volcanism. The oceanic 3He flux is 527±102 mol/yr (Bianchi et al., 2010). Most of the flux is from spreading ridges with only minor contributions from submarine oceanic hotspots or arc volcanism. Hence, the mean CO2/3He ratio in MORB is applied to estimate oceanic flux of CO2. The subaerial CO2 flux is based on evaluation of different arc segments and is messier to compute. Literature estimates use estimated SO2 flux in the last tens of years combined with estimated CO2/SO2 degassing ratios (Hilton et al., 2002; Fischer, 2008). Assuming that the last tens of years are representative of recent geological times in terms of volcanic degassing, the estimated global CO2 flux still depends critically on a couple of arcs that are main contributors of the subaerial volcanic CO2 flux, and those seem to have been rather loosely constrained before. Using recently available data (although there are still holes), we derive a new global subaerial volcanic CO2 flux. By combining with oceanic volcanic CO2 flux, we obtain at a new global flux. The significance of the new estimate to the global volatile budget will be discussed.

Estimated Costs for Delivery of HIV Antiretroviral Therapy to Individuals with CD4+ T-Cell Counts >350 cells/uL in Rural Uganda

PubMed Central

Jain, Vivek; Chang, Wei; Byonanebye, Dathan M.; Owaraganise, Asiphas; Twinomuhwezi, Ellon; Amanyire, Gideon; Black, Douglas; Marseille, Elliot; Kamya, Moses R.; Havlir, Diane V.; Kahn, James G.

2015-01-01

Background Evidence favoring earlier HIV ART initiation at high CD4+ T-cell counts (CD4>350/uL) has grown, and guidelines now recommend earlier HIV treatment. However, the cost of providing ART to individuals with CD4>350 in Sub-Saharan Africa has not been well estimated. This remains a major barrier to optimal global cost projections for accelerating the scale-up of ART. Our objective was to compute costs of ART delivery to high CD4+count individuals in a typical rural Ugandan health center-based HIV clinic, and use these data to construct scenarios of efficient ART scale-up. Methods Within a clinical study evaluating streamlined ART delivery to 197 individuals with CD4+ cell counts >350 cells/uL (EARLI Study: NCT01479634) in Mbarara, Uganda, we performed a micro-costing analysis of administrative records, ART prices, and time-and-motion analysis of staff work patterns. We computed observed per-person-per-year (ppy) costs, and constructed models estimating costs under several increasingly efficient ART scale-up scenarios using local salaries, lowest drug prices, optimized patient loads, and inclusion of viral load (VL) testing. Findings Among 197 individuals enrolled in the EARLI Study, median pre-ART CD4+ cell count was 569/uL (IQR 451–716). Observed ART delivery cost was $628 ppy at steady state. Models using local salaries and only core laboratory tests estimated costs of $529/$445 ppy (+/-VL testing, respectively). Models with lower salaries, lowest ART prices, and optimized healthcare worker schedules reduced costs by $100–200 ppy. Costs in a maximally efficient scale-up model were $320/$236 ppy (+/- VL testing). This included $39 for personnel, $106 for ART, $130/$46 for laboratory tests, and $46 for administrative/other costs. A key limitation of this study is its derivation and extrapolation of costs from one large rural treatment program of high CD4+ count individuals. Conclusions In a Ugandan HIV clinic, ART delivery costs—including VL testing—for individuals with CD4>350 were similar to estimates from high-efficiency programs. In higher efficiency scale-up models, costs were substantially lower. These favorable costs may be achieved because high CD4+ count patients are often asymptomatic, facilitating more efficient streamlined ART delivery. Our work provides a framework for calculating costs of efficient ART scale-up models using accessible data from specific programs and regions. PMID:26632823

Estimated Costs for Delivery of HIV Antiretroviral Therapy to Individuals with CD4+ T-Cell Counts >350 cells/uL in Rural Uganda.

PubMed

Jain, Vivek; Chang, Wei; Byonanebye, Dathan M; Owaraganise, Asiphas; Twinomuhwezi, Ellon; Amanyire, Gideon; Black, Douglas; Marseille, Elliot; Kamya, Moses R; Havlir, Diane V; Kahn, James G

2015-01-01

Evidence favoring earlier HIV ART initiation at high CD4+ T-cell counts (CD4>350/uL) has grown, and guidelines now recommend earlier HIV treatment. However, the cost of providing ART to individuals with CD4>350 in Sub-Saharan Africa has not been well estimated. This remains a major barrier to optimal global cost projections for accelerating the scale-up of ART. Our objective was to compute costs of ART delivery to high CD4+count individuals in a typical rural Ugandan health center-based HIV clinic, and use these data to construct scenarios of efficient ART scale-up. Within a clinical study evaluating streamlined ART delivery to 197 individuals with CD4+ cell counts >350 cells/uL (EARLI Study: NCT01479634) in Mbarara, Uganda, we performed a micro-costing analysis of administrative records, ART prices, and time-and-motion analysis of staff work patterns. We computed observed per-person-per-year (ppy) costs, and constructed models estimating costs under several increasingly efficient ART scale-up scenarios using local salaries, lowest drug prices, optimized patient loads, and inclusion of viral load (VL) testing. Among 197 individuals enrolled in the EARLI Study, median pre-ART CD4+ cell count was 569/uL (IQR 451-716). Observed ART delivery cost was $628 ppy at steady state. Models using local salaries and only core laboratory tests estimated costs of $529/$445 ppy (+/-VL testing, respectively). Models with lower salaries, lowest ART prices, and optimized healthcare worker schedules reduced costs by $100-200 ppy. Costs in a maximally efficient scale-up model were $320/$236 ppy (+/- VL testing). This included $39 for personnel, $106 for ART, $130/$46 for laboratory tests, and $46 for administrative/other costs. A key limitation of this study is its derivation and extrapolation of costs from one large rural treatment program of high CD4+ count individuals. In a Ugandan HIV clinic, ART delivery costs--including VL testing--for individuals with CD4>350 were similar to estimates from high-efficiency programs. In higher efficiency scale-up models, costs were substantially lower. These favorable costs may be achieved because high CD4+ count patients are often asymptomatic, facilitating more efficient streamlined ART delivery. Our work provides a framework for calculating costs of efficient ART scale-up models using accessible data from specific programs and regions.

Pre-dispersal seed predation in a species-rich forest community: Patterns and the interplay with determinants

Treesearch

Yue Xu; Zehao Shen; Daoxin Li; Qinfeng Guo

2015-01-01

Pre-dispersal seed predation (PDSP) is commonly observed in woody plants, and recognized as a driver of seed production variability that is critical for successful regeneration. Earlier studies on PDSP and its determinants were mostly species specific, with community- level PDSP rarely estimated; and the interactions between the temporal...

Capacitance Sensor For Nondestructive Determination Of Total Oil Content In Nuts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Earlier a simple, low cost instrument was designed and assembled in our laboratory, that could estimate the moisture content (MC) of in-shell peanuts (MC range 9% to 20%) and yellow-dent field corn (MC range 7% to 18%). In this method a sample of of in-shell peanuts or corn was placed between a set...

Prevalence of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and Associated Features among Children in France

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lecendreux, Michel; Konofal, Eric; Faraone, Stephen V.

2011-01-01

Background: Earlier studies point to the prevalence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) to be similar around the world. There is, however, a wide variety in estimates. The prevalence of ADHD in youth has never been examined in France. Method: Starting with 18 million telephone numbers, 7,912 numbers are randomly selected. Among the…

Outlier Detection in Hyperspectral Imagery Using Closest Distance to Center with Ellipsoidal Multivariate Trimming

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

where r << P. The use of PCA for finding outliers in multivariate data is surveyed by Gnanadesikan and Kettenring16 and Rao.17 As alluded to earlier...1984. 16. Gnanadesikan R and Kettenring JR. Robust estimates, residu­ als, and outlier detection with multiresponse data. Biometrics 1972; 28: 81–124

ERF1_2 -- Enhanced River Reach File 2.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nolan, Jacqueline V.; Brakebill, John W.; Alexander, Richard B.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

2003-01-01

The digital segmented network based on watershed boundaries, ERF1_2, includes enhancements to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's River Reach File 1 (RF1) (USEPA, 1996; DeWald and others, 1985) to support national and regional-scale surface water-quality modeling. Alexander and others (1999) developed ERF1, which assessed the hydrologic integrity of the digital reach traces and calculated the mean water time-of-travel in river reaches and reservoirs. ERF1_2 serves as the foundation for SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regressions (of nutrient transport) on Watershed) modeling. Within the context of a Geographic Information System, SPARROW estimates the proportion of watersheds in the conterminous U.S. with outflow concentrations of several nutrients, including total nitrogen and total phosphorus, (Smith, R.A., Schwarz, G.E., and Alexander, R.B., 1997). This version of the network expands on ERF1 (Version 1.2; Alexander, et al., 1999) and includes the incremental and total drainage area derived from 1-kilometer (km) elevation data for North America. Previous estimates of the water time-of-travel were recomputed for reaches with water-quality monitoring sites that included two reaches. The mean flow and velocity estimates for these split reaches are based on previous estimation methods (Alexander et al., 1999) and are unchanged in ERF1_2. Drainage area calculations provide data used to estimate the contribution of a given nutrient to the outflow. Data estimates depend on the accuracy of node connectivity. Reaches split at water-quality or pesticide-monitoring sites indicate the source point for estimating the contribution and transport of nutrients and their loads throughout the watersheds. The ERF1_2 coverage extends the earlier drainage area founded on the 1-kilometer data for North America (Verdin, 1996; Verdin and Jenson, 1996). A 1-kilometer raster grid of ERF1_2 projected to Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area, NAD 27 Datum (Snyder, 1987), was merged with the HYDRO1K flow direction data set (Verdin and Jenson, 1996) to generate a DEM-based watershed grid, ERF1_2WS_LG. The watershed boundaries are maintained in a raster (grid cell) format as well as a vector (polygon) format for subsequent model analysis. Both the coverage, ERF1_2, and the grid, ERF1_2WS_LG, are available at: URL:http://water.usgs.gov/lookup/getspatial?erf1_2

Experimental evaluation of rigor mortis. VIII. Estimation of time since death by repeated measurements of the intensity of rigor mortis on rats.

PubMed

Krompecher, T

1994-10-21

The development of the intensity of rigor mortis was monitored in nine groups of rats. The measurements were initiated after 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 12, 15, 24, and 48 h post mortem (p.m.) and lasted 5-9 h, which ideally should correspond to the usual procedure after the discovery of a corpse. The experiments were carried out at an ambient temperature of 24 degrees C. Measurements initiated early after death resulted in curves with a rising portion, a plateau, and a descending slope. Delaying the initial measurement translated into shorter rising portions, and curves initiated 8 h p.m. or later are comprised of a plateau and/or a downward slope only. Three different phases were observed suggesting simple rules that can help estimate the time since death: (1) if an increase in intensity was found, the initial measurements were conducted not later than 5 h p.m.; (2) if only a decrease in intensity was observed, the initial measurements were conducted not earlier than 7 h p.m.; and (3) at 24 h p.m., the resolution is complete, and no further changes in intensity should occur. Our results clearly demonstrate that repeated measurements of the intensity of rigor mortis allow a more accurate estimation of the time since death of the experimental animals than the single measurement method used earlier. A critical review of the literature on the estimation of time since death on the basis of objective measurements of the intensity of rigor mortis is also presented.

A novel hypothesis on the sensitivity of the fecal occult blood test: Results of a joint analysis of 3 randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Boer, Rob; Zauber, Ann; Habbema, J Dik F

2009-06-01

Estimates of the fecal occult blood test (FOBT) (Hemoccult II) sensitivity differed widely between screening trials and led to divergent conclusions on the effects of FOBT screening. We used microsimulation modeling to estimate a preclinical colorectal cancer (CRC) duration and sensitivity for unrehydrated FOBT from the data of 3 randomized controlled trials of Minnesota, Nottingham, and Funen. In addition to 2 usual hypotheses on the sensitivity of FOBT, we tested a novel hypothesis where sensitivity is linked to the stage of clinical diagnosis in the situation without screening. We used the MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to estimate sensitivity and duration, accounting for differences between the trials in demography, background incidence, and trial design. We tested 3 hypotheses for FOBT sensitivity: sensitivity is the same for all preclinical CRC stages, sensitivity increases with each stage, and sensitivity is higher for the stage in which the cancer would have been diagnosed in the absence of screening than for earlier stages. Goodness-of-fit was evaluated by comparing expected and observed rates of screen-detected and interval CRC. The hypothesis with a higher sensitivity in the stage of clinical diagnosis gave the best fit. Under this hypothesis, sensitivity of FOBT was 51% in the stage of clinical diagnosis and 19% in earlier stages. The average duration of preclinical CRC was estimated at 6.7 years. Our analysis corroborated a long duration of preclinical CRC, with FOBT most sensitive in the stage of clinical diagnosis. (c) 2009 American Cancer Society.

Predictors of timing of pregnancy discovery.

PubMed

McCarthy, Molly; Upadhyay, Ushma; Biggs, M Antonia; Anthony, Renaisa; Holl, Jennifer; Roberts, Sarah Cm

2018-04-01

Earlier pregnancy discovery is important in the context of prenatal and abortion care. We evaluated characteristics associated with later pregnancy discovery among women seeking abortion care. Data come from a survey of women seeking abortion care at four family planning facilities in Utah. The participants completed a survey during the state-mandated abortion information visit they are required to complete prior to having an abortion. The outcome in this study was pregnancy discovery before versus after 6 weeks since respondents' last menstrual period (LMP). We used logistic regression to estimate the relationship between sociodemographic and health-related independent variables of interest and pregnancy discovery before versus after 6 weeks. Among the 458 women in the sample, 28% discovered their pregnancy later than 6 weeks since LMP. Most (n=366, 80%) knew the exact date of their LMP and a significant minority estimated it (n=92, 20%). Those who estimated the date of their LMP had higher odds of later pregnancy discovery than those who knew the exact date (adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=1.81[1.07-3.07]). Those who used illicit drugs weekly, daily, or almost daily had higher odds of later pregnancy discovery (aOR=6.33[2.44, 16.40]). Women who did not track their menstrual periods and those who frequently used drugs had higher odds of discovering their pregnancies later. Women who estimated the date of their LMP and who frequently used drugs may benefit from strategies to help them recognize their pregnancies earlier and link them to care when they discover their pregnancies later. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimal healthcare decision making under multiple mathematical models: application in prostate cancer screening.

PubMed

Bertsimas, Dimitris; Silberholz, John; Trikalinos, Thomas

2018-03-01

Important decisions related to human health, such as screening strategies for cancer, need to be made without a satisfactory understanding of the underlying biological and other processes. Rather, they are often informed by mathematical models that approximate reality. Often multiple models have been made to study the same phenomenon, which may lead to conflicting decisions. It is natural to seek a decision making process that identifies decisions that all models find to be effective, and we propose such a framework in this work. We apply the framework in prostate cancer screening to identify prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based strategies that perform well under all considered models. We use heuristic search to identify strategies that trade off between optimizing the average across all models' assessments and being "conservative" by optimizing the most pessimistic model assessment. We identified three recently published mathematical models that can estimate quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) of PSA-based screening strategies and identified 64 strategies that trade off between maximizing the average and the most pessimistic model assessments. All prescribe PSA thresholds that increase with age, and 57 involve biennial screening. Strategies with higher assessments with the pessimistic model start screening later, stop screening earlier, and use higher PSA thresholds at earlier ages. The 64 strategies outperform 22 previously published expert-generated strategies. The 41 most "conservative" ones remained better than no screening with all models in extensive sensitivity analyses. We augment current comparative modeling approaches by identifying strategies that perform well under all models, for various degrees of decision makers' conservativeness.

Designing "Real-World" trials to meet the needs of health policy makers at marketing authorization.

PubMed

Calvert, Melanie; Wood, John; Freemantle, Nick

2011-07-01

There is increasing interest in conducting "Real-World" trials that go beyond traditional assessment of efficacy and safety to examine market access and value for money questions before marketing authorization of a new pharmaceutical product or health technology. This commentary uses practical examples to demonstrate how high-quality evidence of the cost-effectiveness of an intervention may be gained earlier in the development process. Issues surrounding the design and analysis of "Real-World" trials to demonstrate relative cost-effectiveness early in the life of new technologies are discussed. The modification of traditional phase III trial designs, de novo trial designs, the combination of trial-based and epidemiological data, and the use of simulation model-based approaches to address reimbursement questions are described. Modest changes to a phase III trial protocol and case report form may be undertaken at the design stage to provide valid estimates of health care use and the benefits accrued; however, phase III designs often preclude "real-life" practice. Relatively small de novo trials may be used to address adherence to therapy or patient preference, although simply designed studies with active comparators enrolling large numbers of patients may provide evidence on long-term safety and rare adverse events. Practical examples demonstrate that it is possible to provide high-quality evidence of the cost-effectiveness of an intervention earlier in the development process. Payers and decision makers should preferentially adopt treatments with such evidence than treatments for which evidence is lacking or of lower quality. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Metamorphosis Is Ancestral for Crown Euarthropods, and Evolved in the Cambrian or Earlier.

PubMed

Wolfe, Joanna M

2017-09-01

Macroevolutionary developmental biology employs fossilized ontogenetic data and phylogenetic comparative methods to probe the evolution of development at ancient nodes. Despite the prevalence of ecologically differentiated larval forms in marine invertebrates, it has been frequently presumed that the ancestors of arthropods were direct developers, and that metamorphosis may not have evolved until the Ordovician or later. Using fossils and new dated phylogenies, I infer that metamorphosis was likely ancestral for crown arthropods, contradicting this assumption. Based on a published morphological dataset encompassing 217 exceptionally preserved fossil and 96 extant taxa, fossils were directly incorporated into both the topology and age estimates, as in "tip dating" analyses. Using data from post-embryonic fossils representing 25 species throughout stem and crown arthropod lineages (as well as most of the 96 extant taxa), characters for metamorphosis were assigned based on inferred ecological changes in development (e.g., changes in habitat and adaptive landscape). Under all phylogenetic hypotheses, metamorphosis was supported as most likely ancestral to both ecdysozoans and euarthropods. Care must be taken to account for potential drastic post-embryonic morphological changes in evolutionary analyses. Many stem group euarthrpods may have had ecologically differentiated larval stages that did not preserve in the fossil record. Moreover, a complex life cycle and planktonic ecology may have evolved in the Ediacaran or earlier, and may have typified the pre-Cambrian explosion "wormworld" prior to the origin of crown group euarthropods. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, B.; Wårlind, D.; Arneth, A.; Hickler, T.; Leadley, P.; Siltberg, J.; Zaehle, S.

2013-11-01

The LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model uniquely combines an individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics with ecosystem biogeochemical cycling from regional to global scales. We present an updated version that includes plant and soil N dynamics, analysing the implications of accounting for C-N interactions on predictions and performance of the model. Stand structural dynamics and allometric scaling of tree growth suggested by global databases of forest stand structure and development were well-reproduced by the model in comparison to an earlier multi-model study. Accounting for N cycle dynamics improved the goodness-of-fit for broadleaved forests. N limitation associated with low N mineralisation rates reduces productivity of cold-climate and dry-climate ecosystems relative to mesic temperate and tropical ecosystems. In a model experiment emulating free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) treatment for forests globally, N-limitation associated with low N mineralisation rates of colder soils reduces CO2-enhancement of NPP for boreal forests, while some temperate and tropical forests exhibit increased NPP enhancement. Under a business-as-usual future climate and emissions scenario, ecosystem C storage globally was projected to increase by c. 10%; additional N requirements to match this increasing ecosystem C were within the high N supply limit estimated on stoichiometric grounds in an earlier study. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for C-N interactions not only in studies of global terrestrial C cycling, but to understand underlying mechanisms on local scales and in different regional contexts.

Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, B.; Wårlind, D.; Arneth, A.; Hickler, T.; Leadley, P.; Siltberg, J.; Zaehle, S.

2014-04-01

The LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model uniquely combines an individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics with ecosystem biogeochemical cycling from regional to global scales. We present an updated version that includes plant and soil N dynamics, analysing the implications of accounting for C-N interactions on predictions and performance of the model. Stand structural dynamics and allometric scaling of tree growth suggested by global databases of forest stand structure and development were well reproduced by the model in comparison to an earlier multi-model study. Accounting for N cycle dynamics improved the goodness of fit for broadleaved forests. N limitation associated with low N-mineralisation rates reduces productivity of cold-climate and dry-climate ecosystems relative to mesic temperate and tropical ecosystems. In a model experiment emulating free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) treatment for forests globally, N limitation associated with low N-mineralisation rates of colder soils reduces CO2 enhancement of net primary production (NPP) for boreal forests, while some temperate and tropical forests exhibit increased NPP enhancement. Under a business-as-usual future climate and emissions scenario, ecosystem C storage globally was projected to increase by ca. 10%; additional N requirements to match this increasing ecosystem C were within the high N supply limit estimated on stoichiometric grounds in an earlier study. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for C-N interactions in studies of global terrestrial N cycling, and as a basis for understanding mechanisms on local scales and in different regional contexts.

An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources - Part 2: Anthropogenic activities modules and assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.; Shirakawa, N.

2007-10-01

To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water resources and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and two natural hydrological cycle modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module and the river routing module. Here, we present the remaining four modules, which represent anthropogenic activities: a crop growth module, a reservoir operation module, an environmental flow requirement module, and an anthropogenic withdrawal module. In addition, we discuss the results of a global water resources assessment using the integrated model. The crop growth module is a relatively simple model based on heat unit theory and potential biomass and harvest index concepts. The performance of the crop growth module was examined extensively because agricultural water comprises approximately 70% of total water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to underestimate countries in the Asian monsoon region. In the reservoir operation module, 452 major reservoirs with more than 1 km³ each of storage capacity store and release water according to their own rules of operation. Operating rules were determined for each reservoir using an algorithm that used currently available global data such as reservoir storage capacity, intended purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in the lower reaches. The environmental flow requirement module was newly developed based on case studies from around the world. The integrated model closes both energy and water balances on land surfaces. Global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index that locates water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water resources and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The integrated model is applicable to assess various global environmental projections such as climate change.

Event Rate for LISA Gravitational Wave Signals from Black Hole-Massive Black Hole Coalescences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bender, Peter L.; Salamon, Michael H. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Earlier work under a previous grant had been mainly on investigating the event rate for coalescences of white dwarfs or neutron stars with massive black holes (MBHs) in galactic nuclei. Under the new grant, two studies were undertaken. One was an approximate extension of the earlier study to stellar mass black holes as the lighter object, with masses in the range of roughly 3 to 20 M_sun, rather than about 1 M_sun. The other was an improved estimate of the confusion noise due to galactic binaries against which the signals from BH-MDH coalescences would have to be detected. In the earlier work, the mass of the white dwarfs (WDs) and neutron stars (NSs) was assumed to be about the same as that of the unevolved stars in the density cusp around the galactic center MBH. However, with the BH mass being substantially larger, the sinking down of BHs toward the center (mass segregation) became important and was included in the model. A single representative mass of 7 M_sun was used.

Comparing Time-Dependent Geomagnetic and Atmospheric Effects on Cosmogenic Nuclide Production Rate Scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lifton, N. A.

2014-12-01

A recently published cosmogenic nuclide production rate scaling model based on analytical fits to Monte Carlo simulations of atmospheric cosmic ray flux spectra (both of which agree well with measured spectra) (Lifton et al., 2014, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 386, 149-160: termed the LSD model) provides two main advantages over previous scaling models: identification and quantification of potential sources of bias in the earlier models, and the ability to generate nuclide-specific scaling factors easily for a wide range of input parameters. The new model also provides a flexible framework for exploring the implications of advances in model inputs. In this work, the scaling implications of two recent time-dependent spherical harmonic geomagnetic models spanning the Holocene will be explored. Korte and Constable (2011, Phys. Earth Planet. Int. 188, 247-259) and Korte et al. (2011, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 312, 497-505) recently updated earlier spherical harmonic paleomagnetic models used by Lifton et al. (2014) with paleomagnetic measurements from sediment cores in addition to archeomagnetic and volcanic data. These updated models offer improved accuracy over the previous versions, in part to due to increased temporal and spatial data coverage. With the new models as input, trajectory-traced estimates of effective vertical cutoff rigidity (RC- the standard method for ordering cosmic ray data) yield significantly different time-integrated scaling predictions when compared to the earlier models. These results will be compared to scaling predictions using another recent time-dependent spherical harmonic model of the Holocene geomagnetic field by Pavón-Carrasco et al. (2014, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 388, 98-109), based solely on archeomagnetic and volcanic paleomagnetic data, but extending to 14 ka. In addition, the potential effects of time-dependent atmospheric models on LSD scaling predictions will be presented. Given the typical dominance of altitudinal over latitudinal scaling effects on cosmogenic nuclide production, incorporating transient global simulations of atmospheric structure (e.g., Liu et al., 2009, Science 325, 310-314) into scaling frameworks may contribute to improved understanding of long-term production rate variations.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of quadrivalent influenza vaccination in at-risk adults and the elderly: an updated analysis in the U.K.

PubMed

Meier, G; Gregg, M; Poulsen Nautrup, B

2015-01-01

To update an earlier evaluation estimating the cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent influenza vaccination (QIV) compared with trivalent influenza vaccination (TIV) in the adult population currently recommended for influenza vaccination in the UK (all people aged ≥65 years and people aged 18-64 years with clinical risk conditions). This analysis takes into account updated vaccine prices, reference costs, influenza strain circulation, and burden of illness data. A lifetime, multi-cohort, static Markov model was constructed with seven age groups. The model was run in 1-year cycles for a lifetime, i.e., until the youngest patients at entry reached the age of 100 years. The base-case analysis was from the perspective of the UK National Health Service, with a secondary analysis from the societal perspective. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5%. Herd effects were not included. Inputs were derived from systematic reviews, peer-reviewed articles, and government publications and databases. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. In the base-case, QIV would be expected to avoid 1,413,392 influenza cases, 41,780 hospitalizations, and 19,906 deaths over the lifetime horizon, compared with TIV. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £14,645 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. From the societal perspective, the estimated ICER was £13,497/QALY. A strategy of vaccinating only people aged ≥65 years had an estimated ICER of £11,998/QALY. Sensitivity analysis indicated that only two parameters, seasonal variation in influenza B matching and influenza A circulation, had a substantial effect on the ICER. QIV would be likely to be cost-effective compared with TIV in 68% of simulations with a willingness-to-pay threshold of <£20,000/QALY and 87% with a willingness-to-pay threshold of <£30,000/QALY. In this updated analysis, QIV was estimated to be cost-effective compared with TIV in the U.K.

Accurate estimation of camera shot noise in the real-time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheremkhin, Pavel A.; Evtikhiev, Nikolay N.; Krasnov, Vitaly V.; Rodin, Vladislav G.; Starikov, Rostislav S.

2017-10-01

Nowadays digital cameras are essential parts of various technological processes and daily tasks. They are widely used in optics and photonics, astronomy, biology and other various fields of science and technology such as control systems and video-surveillance monitoring. One of the main information limitations of photo- and videocameras are noises of photosensor pixels. Camera's photosensor noise can be divided into random and pattern components. Temporal noise includes random noise component while spatial noise includes pattern noise component. Temporal noise can be divided into signal-dependent shot noise and signal-nondependent dark temporal noise. For measurement of camera noise characteristics, the most widely used methods are standards (for example, EMVA Standard 1288). It allows precise shot and dark temporal noise measurement but difficult in implementation and time-consuming. Earlier we proposed method for measurement of temporal noise of photo- and videocameras. It is based on the automatic segmentation of nonuniform targets (ASNT). Only two frames are sufficient for noise measurement with the modified method. In this paper, we registered frames and estimated shot and dark temporal noises of cameras consistently in the real-time. The modified ASNT method is used. Estimation was performed for the cameras: consumer photocamera Canon EOS 400D (CMOS, 10.1 MP, 12 bit ADC), scientific camera MegaPlus II ES11000 (CCD, 10.7 MP, 12 bit ADC), industrial camera PixeLink PL-B781F (CMOS, 6.6 MP, 10 bit ADC) and video-surveillance camera Watec LCL-902C (CCD, 0.47 MP, external 8 bit ADC). Experimental dependencies of temporal noise on signal value are in good agreement with fitted curves based on a Poisson distribution excluding areas near saturation. Time of registering and processing of frames used for temporal noise estimation was measured. Using standard computer, frames were registered and processed during a fraction of second to several seconds only. Also the accuracy of the obtained temporal noise values was estimated.

Amino acid epimerization implies rapid sedimentation rates in Arctic Ocean cores

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sejrup, H.P.; Miller, G.H.; Brigham-Grette, J.; Lovlie, R.; Hopkins, D.

1984-01-01

The palaeooceanography of the Arctic Ocean is less well known than any other ocean basin, due to difficulties in obtaining cores and in providing a secure chronological framework for those cores that have been raised. Most recent investigators have suggested that low sedimentation rates (0.05-0.1 cm kyr-1) have characterized the deep basins over the past 5 Myr (refs 1,2) despite the glacial-marine character of the sediment and proximity to major centres of shelf glaciation. These calculations have been primarily based on the down-core pattern in the inclination of magnetic minerals, supported by uranium-series, 14C and micropalaeontological evidence. Here we analyse amino acid diagnesis in foraminifera from two gravity cores raised from the floor of the Arctic Ocean, our results suggest that these cores span <200 kyr., conflicting with the earlier estimate of 3 Myr based on palaeomagnetic data. The chronology of other Arctic Ocean cores and previous palaeoenvironmental interpretations need re-evaluation. ?? 1984 Nature Publishing Group.

Dietary change and stable isotopes: a model of growth and dormancy in cave bears.

PubMed Central

Lidén, K; Angerbjörn, A

1999-01-01

In order to discuss dietary change over time by the use of stable isotopes, it is necessary to sort out the underlying processes in isotopic variation. Together with the dietary signal other processes have been investigated, namely metabolic processes, collagen turnover and physical growth. However, growth and collagen turnover time have so far been neglected in dietary reconstruction based on stable isotopes. An earlier study suggested that cave bears (Ursus spelaeus) probably gave birth to cubs during dormancy. We provide an estimate of the effect on stable isotopes of growth and metabolism and discuss collagen turnover in a population of cave bears. Based on a quantitative model, we hypothesized that bear cubs lactated their mothers during their first and second winters, but were fed solid food together with lactation during their first summer. This demonstrates the need to include physical growth, metabolism and collagen turnover in dietary reconstruction. Whereas the effects of diet and metabolism are due to fractionation, growth and collagen turnover are dilution processes. PMID:10518325

A CTRW-based model of time-resolved fluorescence lifetime imaging in a turbid medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernomordik, Victor; Gandjbakhche, Amir H.; Hassan, Moinuddin; Pajevic, Sinisa; Weiss, George H.

2010-12-01

We develop an analytic model of time-resolved fluorescent imaging of photons migrating through a semi-infinite turbid medium bounded by an infinite plane in the presence of a single stationary point fluorophore embedded in the medium. In contrast to earlier models of fluorescent imaging in which photon motion is assumed to be some form of continuous diffusion process, the present analysis is based on a continuous-time random walk (CTRW) on a simple cubic lattice, the objective being to estimate the position and lifetime of the fluorophore. This can provide information related to local variations in pH and temperature with potential medical significance. Aspects of the theory were tested using time-resolved measurements of the fluorescence from small inclusions inside tissue-like phantoms. The experimental results were found to be in good agreement with theoretical predictions provided that the fluorophore was not located too close to the planar boundary, a common problem in many diffusive systems.

Regionally and seasonally differentiated primary production in the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sathyendranath, Shubha; Longhurst, Alan; Caverhill, Carla M.; Platt, Trevor

1995-10-01

A bio-geochemical classification of the N. Atlantic Basin is presented according to which the basin is first divided into four primary algal domains: Polar, West-Wind, Trades and Coastal. These are in turn sub-divided into smaller provinces. The classification is based on differences in the physical environment which are likely to influence regional algal dynamics. The seasonally-differentiated parameters of the photosynthesis-light curve ( P-I curve) and parameters that define the vertical structure in chlorophyll profile are then established for each province, based on an analysis of an archive of over 6000 chlorophyll profiles, and over 1800 P-I curves. These are then combined with satellite-derived chlorophyll data for the N. Atlantic, and information on cloud cover, to compute primary production at the annual scale. using a model that computes spectral transmission of light underwater, and spectral, photosynthetic response of phytoplankton to available light. The results are compared with earlier, satellite-derived, estimates of basin-scale primary production.

The Cu-Li-Sn Phase Diagram: Isopleths, Liquidus Projection and Reaction Scheme

PubMed Central

Flandorfer, Hans

2016-01-01

The Cu-Li-Sn phase diagram was constructed based on XRD and DTA data of 60 different alloy compositions. Eight ternary phases and 14 binary solid phases form 44 invariant ternary reactions, which are illustrated by a Scheil-Schulz reaction scheme and a liquidus projection. Phase equilibria as a function of concentration and temperature are shown along nine isopleths. This report together with an earlier publication of our group provides for the first time comprehensive investigations of phase equilibria and respective phase diagrams. Most of the phase equilibria could be established based on our experimental results. Only in the Li-rich part where many binary and ternary compounds are present estimations had to be done which are all indicated by dashed lines. A stable ternary miscibility gap could be found which was predicted by modelling the liquid ternary phase in a recent work. The phase diagrams are a crucial input for material databases and thermodynamic optimizations regarding new anode materials for high-power Li-ion batteries. PMID:27788175

Back to Basic: Aesthetic Experiences with Literature and Discovering the World

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tice, Kathleen C.

2008-01-01

In this article, the author shares a current analysis of data that complements findings from earlier, related research that confirms the emotional aspects of reading experiences. The data from the earlier study is based upon comments by graduate students in online discussion groups, where they share their thoughts about the professional readings…

Minimization of a Class of Matrix Trace Functions by Means of Refined Majorization.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kiers, Henk A. L.; ten Berge, Jos M. F.

1992-01-01

A procedure is described for minimizing a class of matrix trace functions, which is a refinement of an earlier procedure for minimizing the class of matrix trace functions using majorization. Several trial analyses demonstrate that the revised procedure is more efficient than the earlier majorization-based procedure. (SLD)

An Inertial Sensor-Based Method for Estimating the Athlete's Relative Joint Center Positions and Center of Mass Kinematics in Alpine Ski Racing

PubMed Central

Fasel, Benedikt; Spörri, Jörg; Schütz, Pascal; Lorenzetti, Silvio; Aminian, Kamiar

2017-01-01

For the purpose of gaining a deeper understanding of the relationship between external training load and health in competitive alpine skiing, an accurate and precise estimation of the athlete's kinematics is an essential methodological prerequisite. This study proposes an inertial sensor-based method to estimate the athlete's relative joint center positions and center of mass (CoM) kinematics in alpine skiing. Eleven inertial sensors were fixed to the lower and upper limbs, trunk, and head. The relative positions of the ankle, knee, hip, shoulder, elbow, and wrist joint centers, as well as the athlete's CoM kinematics were validated against a marker-based optoelectronic motion capture system during indoor carpet skiing. For all joints centers analyzed, position accuracy (mean error) was below 110 mm and precision (error standard deviation) was below 30 mm. CoM position accuracy and precision were 25.7 and 6.7 mm, respectively. Both the accuracy and precision of the system to estimate the distance between the ankle of the outside leg and CoM (measure quantifying the skier's overall vertical motion) were found to be below 11 mm. Some poorer accuracy and precision values (below 77 mm) were observed for the athlete's fore-aft position (i.e., the projection of the outer ankle-CoM vector onto the line corresponding to the projection of ski's longitudinal axis on the snow surface). In addition, the system was found to be sensitive enough to distinguish between different types of turns (wide/narrow). Thus, the method proposed in this paper may also provide a useful, pervasive way to monitor and control adverse external loading patterns that occur during regular on-snow training. Moreover, as demonstrated earlier, such an approach might have a certain potential to quantify competition time, movement repetitions and/or the accelerations acting on the different segments of the human body. However, prior to getting feasible for applications in daily training, future studies should primarily focus on a simplification of the sensor setup, as well as a fusion with global navigation satellite systems (i.e., the estimation of the absolute joint and CoM positions). PMID:29163196

The evaluation of distributed damage in concrete based on sinusoidal modeling of the ultrasonic response.

PubMed

Sepehrinezhad, Alireza; Toufigh, Vahab

2018-05-25

Ultrasonic wave attenuation is an effective descriptor of distributed damage in inhomogeneous materials. Methods developed to measure wave attenuation have the potential to provide an in-site evaluation of existing concrete structures insofar as they are accurate and time-efficient. In this study, material classification and distributed damage evaluation were investigated based on the sinusoidal modeling of the response from the through-transmission ultrasonic tests on polymer concrete specimens. The response signal was modeled as single or the sum of damping sinusoids. Due to the inhomogeneous nature of concrete materials, model parameters may vary from one specimen to another. Therefore, these parameters are not known in advance and should be estimated while the response signal is being received. The modeling procedure used in this study involves a data-adaptive algorithm to estimate the parameters online. Data-adaptive algorithms are used due to a lack of knowledge of the model parameters. The damping factor was estimated as a descriptor of the distributed damage. The results were compared in two different cases as follows: (1) constant excitation frequency with varying concrete mixtures and (2) constant mixture with varying excitation frequencies. The specimens were also loaded up to their ultimate compressive strength to investigate the effect of distributed damage in the response signal. The results of the estimation indicated that the damping was highly sensitive to the change in material inhomogeneity, even in comparable mixtures. In addition to the proposed method, three methods were employed to compare the results based on their accuracy in the classification of materials and the evaluation of the distributed damage. It is shown that the estimated damping factor is not only sensitive to damage in the final stages of loading, but it is also applicable in evaluating micro damages in the earlier stages providing a reliable descriptor of damage. In addition, the modified amplitude ratio method is introduced as an improvement of the classical method. The proposed methods were validated to be effective descriptors of distributed damage. The presented models were also in good agreement with the experimental data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Radiotherapy demand and activity in England 2006-2020.

PubMed

Round, C E; Williams, M V; Mee, T; Kirkby, N F; Cooper, T; Hoskin, P; Jena, R

2013-09-01

This paper compares the predictions of radiotherapy demand for England from the Malthus model with those from the earlier National Radiotherapy Advisory Group (NRAG) model, from the international literature and also with observed radiotherapy usage in England as a whole as recorded in the English radiotherapy dataset (RTDS). We reviewed the evidence base for radiotherapy for each type and stage of cancer using national and international guidelines, meta-analyses, systematic reviews and key clinical trials. Twenty-two decision trees were constructed and radiotherapy demand was calculated using English cancer incidence data for 2007, 2008 and 2009, accurate to the Primary Care Trust (PCT) level (population 91,500-1,282,384). The stage at presentation was obtained from English cancer registry data. In predictive mode, the model can take account of changes in cancer incidence as the population grows and ages. The Malthus model indicates reduced indications for radiotherapy, principally for lung cancer and rarer tumours. Our estimate of the proportion of patients who should receive radiotherapy at some stage of their illness is 40.6%. This is lower than previous estimates of about 50%. Nevertheless, the overall estimate of demand in terms of attendances is similar for the NRAG and Malthus models. The latter models that 48,827 attendances should have been delivered per million population in 2011. National data from RTDS show 32,071 attendances per million in 2011. A 50% increase in activity would be required to match estimated demand. This underprovision extends across all cancers and represents reduced access and the use of dose fractionation at odds with international norms of evidence-based practice. By 2016, demand is predicted to grow to about 55,206 attendances per million and by 2020 to 60,057. Services have increased their activity by 14% between 2006 and 2011, but estimated demand has increased by 11%. Access remains low and English radiotherapy dose fractionation still does not comply with international evidence-based practice. Copyright © 2013 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Inertial Sensor-Based Method for Estimating the Athlete's Relative Joint Center Positions and Center of Mass Kinematics in Alpine Ski Racing.

PubMed

Fasel, Benedikt; Spörri, Jörg; Schütz, Pascal; Lorenzetti, Silvio; Aminian, Kamiar

2017-01-01

For the purpose of gaining a deeper understanding of the relationship between external training load and health in competitive alpine skiing, an accurate and precise estimation of the athlete's kinematics is an essential methodological prerequisite. This study proposes an inertial sensor-based method to estimate the athlete's relative joint center positions and center of mass (CoM) kinematics in alpine skiing. Eleven inertial sensors were fixed to the lower and upper limbs, trunk, and head. The relative positions of the ankle, knee, hip, shoulder, elbow, and wrist joint centers, as well as the athlete's CoM kinematics were validated against a marker-based optoelectronic motion capture system during indoor carpet skiing. For all joints centers analyzed, position accuracy (mean error) was below 110 mm and precision (error standard deviation) was below 30 mm. CoM position accuracy and precision were 25.7 and 6.7 mm, respectively. Both the accuracy and precision of the system to estimate the distance between the ankle of the outside leg and CoM (measure quantifying the skier's overall vertical motion) were found to be below 11 mm. Some poorer accuracy and precision values (below 77 mm) were observed for the athlete's fore-aft position (i.e., the projection of the outer ankle-CoM vector onto the line corresponding to the projection of ski's longitudinal axis on the snow surface). In addition, the system was found to be sensitive enough to distinguish between different types of turns (wide/narrow). Thus, the method proposed in this paper may also provide a useful, pervasive way to monitor and control adverse external loading patterns that occur during regular on-snow training. Moreover, as demonstrated earlier, such an approach might have a certain potential to quantify competition time, movement repetitions and/or the accelerations acting on the different segments of the human body. However, prior to getting feasible for applications in daily training, future studies should primarily focus on a simplification of the sensor setup, as well as a fusion with global navigation satellite systems (i.e., the estimation of the absolute joint and CoM positions).

Olfactory deposition of inhaled nanoparticles in humans

PubMed Central

Garcia, Guilherme J. M.; Schroeter, Jeffry D.; Kimbell, Julia S.

2016-01-01

Context Inhaled nanoparticles can migrate to the brain via the olfactory bulb, as demonstrated in experiments in several animal species. This route of exposure may be the mechanism behind the correlation between air pollution and human neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease. Objectives This manuscript aims to (1) estimate the dose of inhaled nanoparticles that deposit in the human olfactory epithelium during nasal breathing at rest and (2) compare the olfactory dose in humans with our earlier dose estimates for rats. Materials and methods An anatomically-accurate model of the human nasal cavity was developed based on computed tomography scans. The deposition of 1–100 nm particles in the whole nasal cavity and its olfactory region were estimated via computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Our CFD methods were validated by comparing our numerical predictions for whole-nose deposition with experimental data and previous CFD studies in the literature. Results In humans, olfactory dose of inhaled nanoparticles is highest for 1–2 nm particles with approximately 1% of inhaled particles depositing in the olfactory region. As particle size grows to 100 nm, olfactory deposition decreases to 0.01% of inhaled particles. Discussion and conclusion Our results suggest that the percentage of inhaled particles that deposit in the olfactory region is lower in humans than in rats. However, olfactory dose per unit surface area is estimated to be higher in humans due to their larger minute volume. These dose estimates are important for risk assessment and dose-response studies investigating the neurotoxicity of inhaled nanoparticles. PMID:26194036

Multi-day activity scheduling reactions to planned activities and future events in a dynamic model of activity-travel behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijland, Linda; Arentze, Theo; Timmermans, Harry

2014-01-01

Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention in activity-based transport demand modeling so far. However, new dynamic activity-based approaches are being developed at the current moment. The frequency and inflexibility of planned activities and events in activity schedules of individuals indicate the importance of incorporating those pre-planned activities in the new generation of dynamic travel demand models. Elaborating and combining previous work on event-driven activity generation, the aim of this paper is to develop and illustrate an extension of a need-based model of activity generation that takes into account possible influences of pre-planned activities and events. This paper describes the theory and shows the results of simulations of the extension. The simulation was conducted for six different activities, and the parameter values used were consistent with an earlier estimation study. The results show that the model works well and that the influences of the parameters are consistent, logical, and have clear interpretations. These findings offer further evidence of face and construct validity to the suggested modeling approach.

Prostate cancer risk prediction based on complete prostate cancer family history

PubMed Central

Albright, Frederick; Stephenson, Robert A; Agarwal, Neeraj; Teerlink, Craig C; Lowrance, William T; Farnham, James M; Albright, Lisa A Cannon

2015-01-01

Background Prostate cancer (PC) relative risks (RRs) are typically estimated based on status of close relatives or presence of any affected relatives. This study provides RR estimates using extensive and specific PC family history. Methods A retrospective population-based study was undertaken to estimate RRs for PC based on complete family history of PC. A total of 635,443 males, all with ancestral genealogy data, were analyzed. RRs for PC were determined based upon PC rates estimated from males with no PC family history (without PC in first, second, or third degree relatives). RRs were determined for a variety of constellations, for example, number of first through third degree relatives; named (grandfather, father, uncle, cousins, brothers); maternal, paternal relationships, and age of onset. Results In the 635,443 males analyzed, 18,105 had PC. First-degree RRs ranged from 2.46 (=1 first-degree relative affected, CI = 2.39–2.53) to 7.65 (=4 first-degree relatives affected, CI = 6.28–9.23). Second-degree RRs for probands with 0 affected first-degree relatives ranged from 1.51 (≥1 second-degree relative affected, CI = 1.47–1.56) to 3.09 (≥5 second-degree relatives affected, CI = 2.32–4.03). Third-degree RRs with 0 affected first- and 0 affected second-degree relatives ranged from 1.15 (≥1 affected third-degree relative, CI = 1.12–1.19) to 1.50 (≥5 affected third-degree relatives, CI = 1.35–1.66). RRs based on age at diagnosis were higher for earlier age at diagnoses; for example, RR = 5.54 for ≥1 first-degree relative diagnosed before age 50 years (CI = 1.12–1.19) and RR = 1.78 for >1 second-degree relative diagnosed before age 50 years, CI = 1.33, 2.33. RRs for equivalent maternal versus paternal family history were not significantly different. Conclusions A more complete PC family history using close and distant relatives and age at diagnosis results in a wider range of estimates of individual RR that are potentially more accurate than RRs estimated from summary family history. The presence of PC in second- and even third-degree relatives contributes significantly to risk. Maternal family history is just as significant as paternal family history. PC RRs based on a proband's complete constellation of affected relatives will allow patients and care providers to make more informed screening, monitoring, and treatment decisions. Prostate 75:390–398, 2015. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:25408531

Productivity losses attributable to untreated chlamydial infection and associated pelvic inflammatory disease in reproductive-aged women.

PubMed

Blandford, John M; Gift, Thomas L

2006-10-01

The productivity losses attributable to disease-related morbidity and mortality impose a burden on society in general and on employers in particular. A reliable assessment of the productivity losses associated with untreated infection with Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) would complement earlier work on direct medical costs and contribute to an estimate of the full cost of chlamydial disease. The goal of this study was to estimate the discounted lifetime productivity losses attributable to untreated chlamydial infection in reproductive-aged women. We developed a cost model using Monte Carlo methods to estimate the lifetime discounted productivity losses attributable to untreated lower genital tract Ct infection among reproductive-aged women. The model considered the impact of disability resulting from acute pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) associated with untreated Ct infection and from the sequelae of acute PID, including chronic pelvic pain, ectopic pregnancy, and infertility. To accommodate disparate Ct infection rates and labor market characteristics across age groups, we matched age-based risk factors for Ct infection with labor market patterns. Data sources included the 2001 National Chlamydia Surveillance Data, the 2001 Current Population Survey, and published literature. Estimates indicate that the mean weighted productivity losses per untreated Ct infection were approximately US dollars 130 (in year 2001 dollars). Mean weighted productivity losses per case of acute PID were estimated at US dollars 649. Estimated productivity losses were highly correlated with age, reflecting age-dependent differences in labor market characteristics. The productivity losses attributable to untreated infection with Ct and to sequelae of this infection form a substantial portion of the total economic burden of disease. Effective programs to prevent chlamydial infection and effective screening, diagnosis, and treatment of Ct-infected women may reduce productivity losses and substantially lessen the economic burden of disease to employers.

Vision-Based Detection and Distance Estimation of Micro Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

PubMed Central

Gökçe, Fatih; Üçoluk, Göktürk; Şahin, Erol; Kalkan, Sinan

2015-01-01

Detection and distance estimation of micro unmanned aerial vehicles (mUAVs) is crucial for (i) the detection of intruder mUAVs in protected environments; (ii) sense and avoid purposes on mUAVs or on other aerial vehicles and (iii) multi-mUAV control scenarios, such as environmental monitoring, surveillance and exploration. In this article, we evaluate vision algorithms as alternatives for detection and distance estimation of mUAVs, since other sensing modalities entail certain limitations on the environment or on the distance. For this purpose, we test Haar-like features, histogram of gradients (HOG) and local binary patterns (LBP) using cascades of boosted classifiers. Cascaded boosted classifiers allow fast processing by performing detection tests at multiple stages, where only candidates passing earlier simple stages are processed at the preceding more complex stages. We also integrate a distance estimation method with our system utilizing geometric cues with support vector regressors. We evaluated each method on indoor and outdoor videos that are collected in a systematic way and also on videos having motion blur. Our experiments show that, using boosted cascaded classifiers with LBP, near real-time detection and distance estimation of mUAVs are possible in about 60 ms indoors (1032×778 resolution) and 150 ms outdoors (1280×720 resolution) per frame, with a detection rate of 0.96 F-score. However, the cascaded classifiers using Haar-like features lead to better distance estimation since they can position the bounding boxes on mUAVs more accurately. On the other hand, our time analysis yields that the cascaded classifiers using HOG train and run faster than the other algorithms. PMID:26393599

First-Order System Least-Squares for the Navier-Stokes Equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bochev, P.; Cai, Z.; Manteuffel, T. A.; McCormick, S. F.

1996-01-01

This paper develops a least-squares approach to the solution of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in primitive variables. As with our earlier work on Stokes equations, we recast the Navier-Stokes equations as a first-order system by introducing a velocity flux variable and associated curl and trace equations. We show that the resulting system is well-posed, and that an associated least-squares principle yields optimal discretization error estimates in the H(sup 1) norm in each variable (including the velocity flux) and optimal multigrid convergence estimates for the resulting algebraic system.

On the soft-gluon resummation in top quark pair production at hadron colliders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czakon, M.; Mitov, A.

2009-09-01

We uncover a contribution to the NLO/NLL threshold resummed total cross section for top quark pair production at hadron colliders, which has not been taken into account in earlier literature. We derive this contribution - the difference between the singlet and octet hard (matching) coefficients - in exact analytic form. The numerical impact of our findings on the Sudakov resummed cross section turns out to be large, and comparable in size to the current estimates for the theoretical uncertainty of the total cross section. A rough estimate points toward a few percent decrease of the latter at the LHC.

Workbook for estimating effects of accidental explosions in propellant ground handling and transport systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, W. E.; Kulesz, J. J.; Ricker, R. E.; Westine, P. S.; Parr, V. B.; Vargas, L. M.; Moseley, P. K.

1978-01-01

A workbook is presented to supplement an earlier NASA publication, which was intended to provide the designer and safety engineer with rapid methods for predicting damage and hazards from explosions of liquid propellant and compressed gas vessels used in ground storage, transport and handling. Information is presented in the form of graphs and tables to allow easy calculation, using only desk or handheld calculators. Topics covered in various chapters are: (1) estimates of explosive yield; (2) characteristics of pressure waves; (3) effects of pressure waves; (4) characteristics of fragments; and (5) effects of fragments and related topics.

Multiple Chronic Conditions Among US Adults: A 2012 Update

PubMed Central

Schiller, Jeannine S.; Goodman, Richard A.

2014-01-01

The objective of this research was to update earlier estimates of prevalence rates of single chronic conditions and multiple (>2) chronic conditions (MCC) among the noninstitutionalized, civilian US adult population. Data from the 2012 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) were used to generate estimates of MCC for US adults and by select demographic characteristics. Approximately half (117 million) of US adults have at least one of the 10 chronic conditions examined (ie, hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke, diabetes, cancer, arthritis, hepatitis, weak or failing kidneys, current asthma, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD]). Furthermore, 1 in 4 adults has MCC. PMID:24742395

Juvenile obesity and its association with utilisation and costs of pharmaceuticals - results from the KiGGS study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background According to a national reference, 15% of German children and adolescents are overweight (including obese) and 6.3% are obese. An earlier study analysed the impact of childhood overweight and obesity on different components of direct medical costs (physician, hospital and therapists). To complement the existing literature for Germany, this study aims to explore the association of body mass index (BMI) with utilisation of pharmaceuticals and related costs in German children and adolescents. Methods Based on data from 14, 836 respondents aged 3-17 years in the German Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS), drug intake and associated costs were estimated using a bottom-up approach. To investigate the association of BMI with utilisation and costs, univariate analyses and multivariate generalised mixed models were conducted. Results There was no significant difference between BMI groups regarding the probability of drug utilisation. However, the number of pharmaceuticals used was significantly higher (14%) for obese children than for normal weight children. Furthermore, there was a trend for more physician-prescribed medication in obese children and adolescents. Among children with pharmaceutical intake, estimated costs were 24% higher for obese children compared with the normal weight group. Conclusions This is the first study to estimate excess drug costs for obesity based on a representative cross-sectional sample of the child and adolescent population in Germany. The results suggest that obese children should be classified as a priority group for prevention. This study complements the existing literature and provides important information concerning the relevance of childhood obesity as a health problem. PMID:22176689

Simultaneous estimation of local-scale and flow path-scale dual-domain mass transfer parameters using geoelectrical monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs, Martin A.; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Ong, John B.; Curtis, Gary P.; Lane, John W.

2013-01-01

Anomalous solute transport, modeled as rate-limited mass transfer, has an observable geoelectrical signature that can be exploited to infer the controlling parameters. Previous experiments indicate the combination of time-lapse geoelectrical and fluid conductivity measurements collected during ionic tracer experiments provides valuable insight into the exchange of solute between mobile and immobile porosity. Here, we use geoelectrical measurements to monitor tracer experiments at a former uranium mill tailings site in Naturita, Colorado. We use nonlinear regression to calibrate dual-domain mass transfer solute-transport models to field data. This method differs from previous approaches by calibrating the model simultaneously to observed fluid conductivity and geoelectrical tracer signals using two parameter scales: effective parameters for the flow path upgradient of the monitoring point and the parameters local to the monitoring point. We use regression statistics to rigorously evaluate the information content and sensitivity of fluid conductivity and geophysical data, demonstrating multiple scales of mass transfer parameters can simultaneously be estimated. Our results show, for the first time, field-scale spatial variability of mass transfer parameters (i.e., exchange-rate coefficient, porosity) between local and upgradient effective parameters; hence our approach provides insight into spatial variability and scaling behavior. Additional synthetic modeling is used to evaluate the scope of applicability of our approach, indicating greater range than earlier work using temporal moments and a Lagrangian-based Damköhler number. The introduced Eulerian-based Damköhler is useful for estimating tracer injection duration needed to evaluate mass transfer exchange rates that range over several orders of magnitude.

Harmonizing multiple methods for reconstructing historical potential and reference evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belaineh, Getachew; Sumner, David; Carter, Edward; Clapp, David

2013-01-01

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) and reference evapotranspiration (RET) data are usually critical components of hydrologic analysis. Many different equations are available to estimate PET and RET. Most of these equations, such as the Priestley-Taylor and Penman- Monteith methods, rely on detailed meteorological data collected at ground-based weather stations. Few weather stations collect enough data to estimate PET or RET using one of the more complex evapotranspiration equations. Currently, satellite data integrated with ground meteorological data are used with one of these evapotranspiration equations to accurately estimate PET and RET. However, earlier than the last few decades, historical reconstructions of PET and RET needed for many hydrologic analyses are limited by the paucity of satellite data and of some types of ground data. Air temperature stands out as the most generally available meteorological ground data type over the last century. Temperature-based approaches used with readily available historical temperature data offer the potential for long period-of-record PET and RET historical reconstructions. A challenge is the inconsistency between the more accurate, but more data intensive, methods appropriate for more recent periods and the less accurate, but less data intensive, methods appropriate to the more distant past. In this study, multiple methods are harmonized in a seamless reconstruction of historical PET and RET by quantifying and eliminating the biases of the simple Hargreaves-Samani method relative to the more complex and accurate Priestley-Taylor and Penman-Monteith methods. This harmonization process is used to generate long-term, internally consistent, spatiotemporal databases of PET and RET.

Estimating surface longwave radiative fluxes from satellites utilizing artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nussbaumer, Eric A.; Pinker, Rachel T.

2012-04-01

A novel approach for calculating downwelling surface longwave (DSLW) radiation under all sky conditions is presented. The DSLW model (hereafter, DSLW/UMD v2) similarly to its predecessor, DSLW/UMD v1, is driven with a combination of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level-3 cloud parameters and information from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim model. To compute the clear sky component of DSLW a two layer feed-forward artificial neural network with sigmoid hidden neurons and linear output neurons is implemented; it is trained with simulations derived from runs of the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM). When computing the cloud contribution to DSLW, the cloud base temperature is estimated by using an independent artificial neural network approach of similar architecture as previously mentioned, and parameterizations. The cloud base temperature neural network is trained using spatially and temporally co-located MODIS and CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations. Daily average estimates of DSLW from 2003 to 2009 are compared against ground measurements from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) giving an overall correlation coefficient of 0.98, root mean square error (rmse) of 15.84 W m-2, and a bias of -0.39 W m-2. This is an improvement over an earlier version of the model (DSLW/UMD v1) which for the same time period has an overall correlation coefficient 0.97 rmse of 17.27 W m-2, and bias of 0.73 W m-2.

The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs.

PubMed

DiMasi, Joseph A; Hansen, Ronald W; Grabowski, Henry G

2003-03-01

The research and development costs of 68 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per new drug is 403 million US dollars (2000 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 11% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of 802 million US dollars (2000 dollars). When compared to the results of an earlier study with a similar methodology, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 7.4% above general price inflation. Copyright 2003 Elsevier Science B.V.

Using Audit Information to Adjust Parameter Estimates for Data Errors in Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Shepherd, Bryan E.; Shaw, Pamela A.; Dodd, Lori E.

2013-01-01

Background Audits are often performed to assess the quality of clinical trial data, but beyond detecting fraud or sloppiness, the audit data is generally ignored. In earlier work using data from a non-randomized study, Shepherd and Yu (2011) developed statistical methods to incorporate audit results into study estimates, and demonstrated that audit data could be used to eliminate bias. Purpose In this manuscript we examine the usefulness of audit-based error-correction methods in clinical trial settings where a continuous outcome is of primary interest. Methods We demonstrate the bias of multiple linear regression estimates in general settings with an outcome that may have errors and a set of covariates for which some may have errors and others, including treatment assignment, are recorded correctly for all subjects. We study this bias under different assumptions including independence between treatment assignment, covariates, and data errors (conceivable in a double-blinded randomized trial) and independence between treatment assignment and covariates but not data errors (possible in an unblinded randomized trial). We review moment-based estimators to incorporate the audit data and propose new multiple imputation estimators. The performance of estimators is studied in simulations. Results When treatment is randomized and unrelated to data errors, estimates of the treatment effect using the original error-prone data (i.e., ignoring the audit results) are unbiased. In this setting, both moment and multiple imputation estimators incorporating audit data are more variable than standard analyses using the original data. In contrast, in settings where treatment is randomized but correlated with data errors and in settings where treatment is not randomized, standard treatment effect estimates will be biased. And in all settings, parameter estimates for the original, error-prone covariates will be biased. Treatment and covariate effect estimates can be corrected by incorporating audit data using either the multiple imputation or moment-based approaches. Bias, precision, and coverage of confidence intervals improve as the audit size increases. Limitations The extent of bias and the performance of methods depend on the extent and nature of the error as well as the size of the audit. This work only considers methods for the linear model. Settings much different than those considered here need further study. Conclusions In randomized trials with continuous outcomes and treatment assignment independent of data errors, standard analyses of treatment effects will be unbiased and are recommended. However, if treatment assignment is correlated with data errors or other covariates, naive analyses may be biased. In these settings, and when covariate effects are of interest, approaches for incorporating audit results should be considered. PMID:22848072

Prebiotic phosphorus chemistry reconsidered

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, A. W.; Orgel, L. E. (Principal Investigator)

1997-01-01

The available evidence indicates that the origin of life on Earth certainly occurred earlier than 3.5 billion years ago and perhaps substantially earlier. The time available for the chemical evolution which must have preceded this event is more difficult to estimate. Both endogenic and exogenic contributions to chemical evolution have been considered; i.e., from chemical reactions in a primitive atmosphere, or by introduction in the interiors of comets and/or meteorites. It is argued, however, that the phosphorus chemistry of Earth's earliest hydrosphere, whether primarily exogenic or endogenic in origin, was most likely dominated by compounds less oxidized than phosphoric acid and its esters. A scenario is presented for the early production of a suite of reactive phosphonic acid derivatives, the properties of which may have foreshadowed the later appearance of biophosphates.

Selection of children to provide care: the effect of earlier parental transfers.

PubMed

Henretta, J C; Hill, M S; Li, W; Soldo, B J; Wolf, D A

1997-05-01

We use the first wave of data from the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) study to examine the effects of past parent-to-child financial transfers on selection of a child to provide assistance with basic personal care for unmarried parents. We estimate a fixed-effects conditional logit model and find a positive and significant association between past financial transfers and a child's current helping behavior. The coefficient of past financial transfers is in the direction hypothesized, and its magnitude is 80% as large as that of gender, a well-documented powerful predictor of parental caregiving. There appears to be substantial evidence that earlier parent-to-child financial gifts play a role in determining which child in the family will provide assistance.

Social disinhibition is a heritable subphenotype of tics in Tourette syndrome

PubMed Central

Hirschtritt, Matthew E.; Darrow, Sabrina M.; Illmann, Cornelia; Osiecki, Lisa; Grados, Marco; Sandor, Paul; Dion, Yves; King, Robert A.; Pauls, David L.; Budman, Cathy L.; Cath, Danielle C.; Greenberg, Erica; Lyon, Gholson J.; Yu, Dongmei; McGrath, Lauren M.; McMahon, William M.; Lee, Paul C.; Delucchi, Kevin L.; Scharf, Jeremiah M.

2016-01-01

Objective: To identify heritable symptom-based subtypes of Tourette syndrome (TS). Methods: Forty-nine motor and phonic tics were examined in 3,494 individuals (1,191 TS probands and 2,303 first-degree relatives). Item-level exploratory factor and latent class analyses (LCA) were used to identify tic-based subtypes. Heritabilities of the subtypes were estimated, and associations with clinical characteristics were examined. Results: A 6-factor exploratory factor analysis model provided the best fit, which paralleled the somatotopic representation of the basal ganglia, distinguished simple from complex tics, and separated out socially disinhibited and compulsive tics. The 5-class LCA model best distinguished among the following groups: unaffected, simple tics, intermediate tics without social disinhibition, intermediate with social disinhibition, and high rates of all tic types. Across models, a phenotype characterized by high rates of social disinhibition emerged. This phenotype was associated with increased odds of comorbid psychiatric disorders, in particular, obsessive-compulsive disorder and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, earlier age at TS onset, and increased tic severity. The heritability estimate for this phenotype based on the LCA was 0.53 (SE 0.08, p 1.7 × 10−18). Conclusions: Expanding on previous modeling approaches, a series of TS-related phenotypes, including one characterized by high rates of social disinhibition, were identified. These phenotypes were highly heritable and may reflect underlying biological networks more accurately than traditional diagnoses, thus potentially aiding future genetic, imaging, and treatment studies. PMID:27371487

Social disinhibition is a heritable subphenotype of tics in Tourette syndrome.

PubMed

Hirschtritt, Matthew E; Darrow, Sabrina M; Illmann, Cornelia; Osiecki, Lisa; Grados, Marco; Sandor, Paul; Dion, Yves; King, Robert A; Pauls, David L; Budman, Cathy L; Cath, Danielle C; Greenberg, Erica; Lyon, Gholson J; Yu, Dongmei; McGrath, Lauren M; McMahon, William M; Lee, Paul C; Delucchi, Kevin L; Scharf, Jeremiah M; Mathews, Carol A

2016-08-02

To identify heritable symptom-based subtypes of Tourette syndrome (TS). Forty-nine motor and phonic tics were examined in 3,494 individuals (1,191 TS probands and 2,303 first-degree relatives). Item-level exploratory factor and latent class analyses (LCA) were used to identify tic-based subtypes. Heritabilities of the subtypes were estimated, and associations with clinical characteristics were examined. A 6-factor exploratory factor analysis model provided the best fit, which paralleled the somatotopic representation of the basal ganglia, distinguished simple from complex tics, and separated out socially disinhibited and compulsive tics. The 5-class LCA model best distinguished among the following groups: unaffected, simple tics, intermediate tics without social disinhibition, intermediate with social disinhibition, and high rates of all tic types. Across models, a phenotype characterized by high rates of social disinhibition emerged. This phenotype was associated with increased odds of comorbid psychiatric disorders, in particular, obsessive-compulsive disorder and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, earlier age at TS onset, and increased tic severity. The heritability estimate for this phenotype based on the LCA was 0.53 (SE 0.08, p 1.7 × 10(-18)). Expanding on previous modeling approaches, a series of TS-related phenotypes, including one characterized by high rates of social disinhibition, were identified. These phenotypes were highly heritable and may reflect underlying biological networks more accurately than traditional diagnoses, thus potentially aiding future genetic, imaging, and treatment studies. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Estimating turbulent electrovortex flow parameters hear the dynamo cycle bifurcation point

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zimin, V.D.; Kolpakov, N.Yu.; Khripchenko, S.Yu.

1988-07-01

Models for estimating turbulent electrovortex flow parameters, derived in earlier studies, were delineated and extended in this paper to express those parameters near the dynamo cycle bifurcation point in a spherical cavity. Toroidal and poloidal fields rising from the induction currents within the liquid metal and their electrovortex interactions were calculated. Toroidal field strengthening by the poloidal electrovortex flow, the first part of the dynamo loop, was determined by the viscous dissipation in the liquid metal. The second part of the loop, in which the toroidal field localized in the liquid metal is converted to a poloidal field and emergesmore » from the sphere, was also established. The dissipative effects near the critical magnetic Reynolds number were estimated.« less

The effectiveness of automatic belts in reducing fatality rates in Toyota Cressidas.

PubMed

Nash, C E

1989-12-01

Toyota Cressidas have had motor driven automatic belts since 1981. Their observed use rates have been consistently close to 100%. This paper compares fatality rates in Toyota Cressidas with those in the similar Nissan Maximas (which are equipped with three-point manual belts) using the latest data from the Fatal Accident Reporting System. After making adjustments for differences in the average ages of front seat occupants of the two fleets, the Toyotas have a fatality rate that is about three-quarters that of the Nissans. From this, the fatality-reducing effectiveness for the Toyota automatic belts is estimated to be 40% with an uncertainty of +/- 8%. This effectiveness estimate is consistent with earlier estimates of automatic belt effectiveness.

The impact of pharmaceutical innovation on premature cancer mortality in Switzerland, 1995-2012.

PubMed

Lichtenberg, Frank R

2016-09-01

The premature cancer mortality rate has been declining in Switzerland, but there has been considerable variation in the rate of decline across cancer sites (e.g., breast or digestive organs). I analyze the effect that pharmaceutical innovation had on premature cancer mortality in Switzerland during the period 1995-2012 by investigating whether the cancer sites that experienced more pharmaceutical innovation had larger declines in premature mortality, controlling for the number of people diagnosed and mean age at diagnosis. Premature cancer mortality before ages 75 and 65 is significantly inversely related to the cumulative number of drugs registered 5, 10, and 15 years earlier. The number of drugs registered during 1980-1997 explains 63 % of the variation across cancer sites in the 1995-2012 log change in the premature (before age 75) mortality rate. Controlling for the cumulative number of drugs, the cumulative number of chemical subgroups does not have a statistically significant effect on premature mortality. This suggests that drugs (chemical substances) within the same class (chemical subgroup) are not "therapeutically equivalent". Over 17,000 life-years before age 75 were gained in 2012 due to drugs registered during 1990-2007. The number of life-years before age 75 gained in 2012 from drugs registered during two earlier periods (1985-2002 and 1980-1997) were more than twice as great. Since mean utilization of new drugs is much lower than mean utilization of older drugs, more recent drug registrations may have a smaller effect on premature mortality than earlier drug registrations even if the average quality of newer drugs is higher. Estimates of the cost per life-year gained before ages 75 and 65 in 2012 from drugs registered during 1990-2007 are $21,228 and $28,673, respectively. These figures are below even the lowest estimates from the value-of-life literature of the value of a quality-adjusted life-year. The estimates indicate that the cost per life-year before age 75 gained from drugs registered during earlier periods (1985-2002 and 1980-1997) were considerably lower: $5299 and $3218, respectively. The largest reductions in premature mortality occur at least a decade after drugs are registered, when their utilization increases significantly. This suggests that if Switzerland is to obtain substantial additional reductions in premature cancer mortality in the future (a decade or more from now) at a modest cost, pharmaceutical innovation (registration of new drugs) is needed today.

Introducing Computed Tomography Standards for Age Estimation of Modern Australian Subadults Using Postnatal Ossification Timings of Select Cranial and Cervical Sites(.).

PubMed

Lottering, Nicolene; MacGregor, Donna M; Alston, Clair L; Watson, Debbie; Gregory, Laura S

2016-01-01

Contemporary, population-specific ossification timings of the cranium are lacking in current literature due to challenges in obtaining large repositories of documented subadult material, forcing Australian practitioners to rely on North American, arguably antiquated reference standards for age estimation. This study assessed the temporal pattern of ossification of the cranium and provides recalibrated probabilistic information for age estimation of modern Australian children. Fusion status of the occipital and frontal bones, atlas, and axis was scored using a modified two- to four-tier system from cranial/cervical DICOM datasets of 585 children aged birth to 10 years. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate maximum-likelihood estimates between consecutive fusion stages, in conjunction with Bayesian statistics to calculate credible intervals for age estimation. Results demonstrate significant sex differences in skeletal maturation (p < 0.05) and earlier timings in comparison with major literary sources, underscoring the requisite of updated standards for age estimation of modern individuals. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Sleep and the Body Mass Index and Overweight Status of Children and Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snell, Emily K.; Adam, Emma K.; Duncan, Greg J.

2007-01-01

Associations between sleep and the body mass index (BMI) and overweight status of children and adolescents were estimated using longitudinal data from a nationally representative sample of 2,281 children aged 3-12 years at baseline. Controlling for baseline BMI, children who slept less, went to bed later, or got up earlier at the time of the first…

Study of the effect of short ranged ordering on the magnetism in FeCr alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jena, Ambika Prasad; Sanyal, Biplab; Mookerjee, Abhijit

2014-01-01

For the study of magnetism in systems where the local environment plays an important role, we propose a marriage between the Monte Carlo simulation and Zunger's special quasi-random structures. We apply this technique on disordered FeCr alloys and show that our estimates of the transition temperature is in good agreement with earlier experiments.

Numerical Evaluation of Lateral Diffusion Inside Diffusive Gradients in Thin Films Samplers

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Using numerical simulation of diffusion inside diffusive gradients in thin films (DGT) samplers, we show that the effect of lateral diffusion inside the sampler on the solute flux into the sampler is a nonlinear function of the diffusion layer thickness and the physical sampling window size. In contrast, earlier work concluded that this effect was constant irrespective of parameters of the sampler geometry. The flux increase caused by lateral diffusion inside the sampler was determined to be ∼8.8% for standard samplers, which is considerably lower than the previous estimate of ∼20%. Lateral diffusion is also propagated to the diffusive boundary layer (DBL), where it leads to a slightly stronger decrease in the mass uptake than suggested by the common 1D diffusion model that is applied for evaluating DGT results. We introduce a simple correction procedure for lateral diffusion and demonstrate how the effect of lateral diffusion on diffusion in the DBL can be accounted for. These corrections often result in better estimates of the DBL thickness (δ) and the DGT-measured concentration than earlier approaches and will contribute to more accurate concentration measurements in solute monitoring in waters. PMID:25877251

Physical, Hydraulic, and Transport Properties of Sediments and Engineered Materials Associated with Hanford Immobilized Low-Activity Waste

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rockhold, Mark L.; Zhang, Z. F.; Meyer, Philip D.

2015-02-28

Current plans for treatment and disposal of immobilized low-activity waste (ILAW) from Hanford’s underground waste storage tanks include vitrification and storage of the glass waste form in a nearsurface disposal facility. This Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF) is located in the 200 East Area of the Hanford Central Plateau. Performance assessment (PA) of the IDF requires numerical modeling of subsurface flow and reactive transport processes over very long periods (thousands of years). The models used to predict facility performance require parameters describing various physical, hydraulic, and transport properties. This report provides updated estimates of physical, hydraulic, and transport properties and parametersmore » for both near- and far-field materials, intended for use in future IDF PA modeling efforts. Previous work on physical and hydraulic property characterization for earlier IDF PA analyses is reviewed and summarized. For near-field materials, portions of this document and parameter estimates are taken from an earlier data package. For far-field materials, a critical review is provided of methodologies used in previous data packages. Alternative methods are described and associated parameters are provided.« less

Integral cross sections for electron impact excitation of electronic states of N2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, L.; Brunger, M. J.; Nolan, A. M.; Kelly, L. J.; Wedding, A. B.; Harrison, J.; Teubner, P. J. O.; Cartwright, D. C.; McLaughlin, B.

2001-04-01

We report integral cross sections (ICSs) for electron impact excitation of the A 3Σ+u, B 3Πg, W 3Δu, B' 3Σ-u, a' 1Σ-u, a 1Πg, ω1Δu, C 3Πu, E 3Σ+g and a'' 1Σ+g electronic states of N2. The present data, for each state, were derived at five incident electron energies in the range 15-50 eV, from the earlier crossed-beam differential cross section (DCS) measurements of our group. This was facilitated by using a molecular phase shift analysis technique to extrapolate the measured DCSs to 0° and 180°, before performing the integration. A comprehensive comparison of the present ICSs with the results of earlier experimental studies, both crossed beam and electron swarm, and theoretical calculations is provided. This comparison clearly indicates that some of the previous estimates for these excited electronic-state cross sections need to be reassessed. In addition, we have used the present ICSs in a Monte Carlo simulation for modelling the behaviour of an electron swarm in the bulk of a low current N2 discharge. The macroscopic transport parameters determined from this simulation are compared against those measured from independent swarm-based experiments and the self-consistency of our ICSs evaluated.

Guidelines for breast cancer screening in Lebanon Public Health Communication.

PubMed

Adib, Salim M; El Saghir, Nagi S; Ammar, Walid

2009-01-01

The accumulation of national epidemiological data since the late 1990s has led to the adoption of evidence-based guidelines for breast cancer screening in Lebanon (2006). Almost 50% of breast cancer patients in Lebanon are below the age of 50 years and the age-adjusted incidence rate is estimated at 69 new cases per 100,000 per year (2004). This official notification calls for breast self-examination (BSE) every month starting age 20, and a clinical breast examination (CBE) performed by a physician every three years between the ages of 20 and 40 years. Starting age 40, and for as long as a woman is in good health, an annual CBE and mammography are recommended. Women with known genetic family history of breast cancer should start screening 10 years earlier than the first young patient in the family, or earlier depending on medical advice. The Breast Cancer National Task Force (BCNTF) recommends certification of mammography centers and continued training of personnel to assure high quality mammograms, and to minimize unnecessary investigations and surgeries.It recommends that a national program should record call-backs of women for annual screening and follow-up data on abnormal mammograms. BCNTF encourages the adoption of these guidelines and monitoring of their results, as well as follow-up of breast cancer epidemiology and registry in Lebanon, and scientific progress in early breast cancer detection to determine needs for modifications in the future.

Age at menarche in relation to adult height: the EPIC study.

PubMed

Onland-Moret, N C; Peeters, P H M; van Gils, C H; Clavel-Chapelon, F; Key, T; Tjønneland, A; Trichopoulou, A; Kaaks, R; Manjer, J; Panico, S; Palli, D; Tehard, B; Stoikidou, M; Bueno-De-Mesquita, H B; Boeing, H; Overvad, K; Lenner, P; Quirós, J R; Chirlaque, M D; Miller, A B; Khaw, K T; Riboli, E

2005-10-01

In the last two centuries, age at menarche has decreased in several European populations, whereas adult height has increased. It is unclear whether these trends have ceased in recent years or how age at menarche and height are related in individuals. In this study, the authors first investigated trends in age at menarche and adult height among 286,205 women from nine European countries by computing the mean age at menarche and height in 5-year birth cohorts, adjusted for differences in socioeconomic status. Second, the relation between age at menarche and height was estimated by linear regression models, adjusted for age at enrollment between 1992 and 1998 and socioeconomic status. Mean age at menarche decreased by 44 days per 5-year birth cohort (beta = -0.12, standard error = 0.002), varying from 18 days in the United Kingdom to 58 days in Spain and Germany. Women grew 0.29 cm taller per 5-year birth cohort (standard error = 0.007), varying from 0.42 cm in Italy to 0.98 cm in Denmark. Furthermore, women grew approximately 0.31 cm taller when menarche occurred 1 year later (range by country: 0.13-0.50 cm). Based on time trends, more recent birth cohorts have their menarche earlier and grow taller. However, women with earlier menarche reach a shorter adult height compared with women who have menarche at a later age.

Population increase, economic growth, educational inequality, and income distribution: some recent evidence.

PubMed

Ram, R

1984-04-01

The relationship between population increase, economic growth, education and income inequality was examined in a cross-section study based on data from 26 developing and 2 developed countries. As other studies have noted, high population growth is associated with a less equal income distribution. A 1 percentage point reduction in the rate of population growth tends to raise the income share of the poorest 80% in the less developed world by almost 5 percentage points and is associated with a 1.7 percentage point increase in the income share of the poorest 40%. The relationship between short-run income growth and equality, on the other hand, is strong and positive. Estimates suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the short-run rate of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) increases the income share of the bottom 80% by about 2 percentage points and that of the poorest 40% by almost 1 percentage point. Although higher mean schooling appears to be a mild equalizer, educational inequality does not appear to have an adverse effect on income distribution. Overall, these results challenge the widely held belief that there must be a growth-equity trade-off. Moreover, they suggest that the impact of educational inequality on income distribution may be different from that observed in earlier studies, implying a need for caution in using these earlier results as a basis for educational policy development.

Effect of atomic parameters on determination of aluminium abundance in atmospheres of late-type stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menzhevitski, V. S.; Shimanskaya, N. N.; Shimansky, V. V.; Kudryavtsev, D. O.

2014-04-01

We study the effect of the photoionization cross sections for the ground state of Al I on the inferred aluminium abundance in stellar atmospheres. We match the theoretical and observed line profiles of the resonance λλ 3944.01, 3961.52 Å and subordinate λλ 6696.03, 6698.68 Å doublets in high-resolution spectra of the metal-poor solar-type stars HD22879 and HD201889. We determine the parameters of these stars from their photometric and spectroscopic data. Our computations show that the profiles can be matched and a single aluminium abundance inferred simultaneously from both groups of spectral lines only with low photoionization cross sections (about 10-12 Mb). Larger cross sections (about 58-65 Mb) make such fits impossible. We therefore conclude that small photoionization cross sections should be preferred for the determination of aluminium abundances in metal-poor stars. We redetermine the aluminium abundances in the atmospheres of halo stars. The resulting abundances prove to be lower by 0.1-0.15 dex than our earlier determinations which does not affect the conclusions based on our earlier estimates. In particular, the NLTE [Al/Fe]-[Fe/H] dependence, on the whole, agrees only qualitatively with the results of theoretical predictions. Therefore further refinement of the theory of nuclear synthesis of aluminium in the process of the chemical evolution of the Galaxy remains a task of current importance.

Full-time versus part-time employment: Does it influence frequency of grandparental childcare?

PubMed

Lakomý, Martin; Kreidl, Martin

2015-12-01

The impact of grandparents' employment on grandparental childcare has been examined repeatedly, but the findings have so far been inconsistent. We contend that these inconsistencies may have resulted from variations in model specification and crude measurement of employment status. Furthermore, we assert that earlier research overlooked gender differences in the ability to combine paid employment and caregiving as well as variations between maternal and paternal grandparents. We also question the causal interpretation of earlier findings that were based on cross-sectional data. We revisit the issue of the impact of the intensity of employment and analyze SHARE data from 19 countries. We find a significant positive association between part-time employment (as compared to full-time employment) and the frequency of grandparental childcare in a cross-sectional sample, but only among paternal grandmothers. Capitalizing on the panel component of SHARE, we use a within-person estimator to show that this association is unlikely to reflect a causal effect of the intensity of labor market attachment on the frequency of the care of grandchildren, but more probably results from omitted variable bias. We argue that grandparents most likely to provide (intensive) childcare are also most likely to adjust their employment in anticipation of caregiving. The paper documents the usefulness of role strain theory among grandparents and highlights that part-time jobs may reduce role conflict and may thus make grandparenting a more easily manageable experience.

Nonsmooth Finite-Time Synchronization of Switched Coupled Neural Networks.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaoyang; Cao, Jinde; Yu, Wenwu; Song, Qiang

2016-10-01

This paper is concerned with the finite-time synchronization (FTS) issue of switched coupled neural networks with discontinuous or continuous activations. Based on the framework of nonsmooth analysis, some discontinuous or continuous controllers are designed to force the coupled networks to synchronize to an isolated neural network. Some sufficient conditions are derived to ensure the FTS by utilizing the well-known finite-time stability theorem for nonlinear systems. Compared with the previous literatures, such synchronization objective will be realized when the activations and the controllers are both discontinuous. The obtained results in this paper include and extend the earlier works on the synchronization issue of coupled networks with Lipschitz continuous conditions. Moreover, an upper bound of the settling time for synchronization is estimated. Finally, numerical simulations are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results.

Spin crossover and Mott—Hubbard transition under high pressure and high temperature in the low mantle of the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ovchinnikov, S. G.; Ovchinnikova, T. M.; Plotkin, V. V.; Dyad'kov, P. G.

2015-11-01

Effect of high pressure induced spin crossover on the magnetic, electronic and structural properties of the minerals forming the Earth's low mantle is discussed. The low temperature P, T phase diagram of ferropericlase has the quantum phase transition point Pc = 56 GPa at T = 0 confirmed recently by the synchrotron Mössbauer spectroscopy. The LDA+GTB calculated phase diagram describes the experimental data. Its extension to the high temperature resulted earlier in prediction of the metallic properties of the Earth's mantle at the depth 1400 km < h < 1800 km. Estimation of the electrical conductivity based on the percolation theory is given. We discuss also the thermodynamic properties and structural anomalies resulting from the spin crossover and metal-insulator transition and compare them with the experimental seismic and geomagnetic field data.

Classical eighth- and lower-order Runge-Kutta-Nystroem formulas with a new stepsize control procedure for special second-order differential equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fehlberg, E.

1973-01-01

New Runge-Kutta-Nystrom formulas of the eighth, seventh, sixth, and fifth order are derived for the special second-order (vector) differential equation x = f (t,x). In contrast to Runge-Kutta-Nystrom formulas of an earlier NASA report, these formulas provide a stepsize control procedure based on the leading term of the local truncation error in x. This new procedure is more accurate than the earlier Runge-Kutta-Nystrom procedure (with stepsize control based on the leading term of the local truncation error in x) when integrating close to singularities. Two central orbits are presented as examples. For these orbits, the accuracy and speed of the formulas of this report are compared with those of Runge-Kutta-Nystrom and Runge-Kutta formulas of earlier NASA reports.

Deriving micro- to macro-scale seismic velocities from ice-core c axis orientations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerch, Johanna; Diez, Anja; Weikusat, Ilka; Eisen, Olaf

2018-05-01

One of the great challenges in glaciology is the ability to estimate the bulk ice anisotropy in ice sheets and glaciers, which is needed to improve our understanding of ice-sheet dynamics. We investigate the effect of crystal anisotropy on seismic velocities in glacier ice and revisit the framework which is based on fabric eigenvalues to derive approximate seismic velocities by exploiting the assumed symmetry. In contrast to previous studies, we calculate the seismic velocities using the exact c axis angles describing the orientations of the crystal ensemble in an ice-core sample. We apply this approach to fabric data sets from an alpine and a polar ice core. Our results provide a quantitative evaluation of the earlier approximative eigenvalue framework. For near-vertical incidence our results differ by up to 135 m s-1 for P-wave and 200 m s-1 for S-wave velocity compared to the earlier framework (estimated 1 % difference in average P-wave velocity at the bedrock for the short alpine ice core). We quantify the influence of shear-wave splitting at the bedrock as 45 m s-1 for the alpine ice core and 59 m s-1 for the polar ice core. At non-vertical incidence we obtain differences of up to 185 m s-1 for P-wave and 280 m s-1 for S-wave velocities. Additionally, our findings highlight the variation in seismic velocity at non-vertical incidence as a function of the horizontal azimuth of the seismic plane, which can be significant for non-symmetric orientation distributions and results in a strong azimuth-dependent shear-wave splitting of max. 281 m s-1 at some depths. For a given incidence angle and depth we estimated changes in phase velocity of almost 200 m s-1 for P wave and more than 200 m s-1 for S wave and shear-wave splitting under a rotating seismic plane. We assess for the first time the change in seismic anisotropy that can be expected on a short spatial (vertical) scale in a glacier due to strong variability in crystal-orientation fabric (±50 m s-1 per 10 cm). Our investigation of seismic anisotropy based on ice-core data contributes to advancing the interpretation of seismic data, with respect to extracting bulk information about crystal anisotropy, without having to drill an ice core and with special regard to future applications employing ultrasonic sounding.

Semi-Supervised Tensor-Based Graph Embedding Learning and Its Application to Visual Discriminant Tracking.

PubMed

Hu, Weiming; Gao, Jin; Xing, Junliang; Zhang, Chao; Maybank, Stephen

2017-01-01

An appearance model adaptable to changes in object appearance is critical in visual object tracking. In this paper, we treat an image patch as a two-order tensor which preserves the original image structure. We design two graphs for characterizing the intrinsic local geometrical structure of the tensor samples of the object and the background. Graph embedding is used to reduce the dimensions of the tensors while preserving the structure of the graphs. Then, a discriminant embedding space is constructed. We prove two propositions for finding the transformation matrices which are used to map the original tensor samples to the tensor-based graph embedding space. In order to encode more discriminant information in the embedding space, we propose a transfer-learning- based semi-supervised strategy to iteratively adjust the embedding space into which discriminative information obtained from earlier times is transferred. We apply the proposed semi-supervised tensor-based graph embedding learning algorithm to visual tracking. The new tracking algorithm captures an object's appearance characteristics during tracking and uses a particle filter to estimate the optimal object state. Experimental results on the CVPR 2013 benchmark dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed tracking algorithm.

Estimating and interpreting migration of Amazonian forests using spatially implicit and semi-explicit neutral models.

PubMed

Pos, Edwin; Guevara Andino, Juan Ernesto; Sabatier, Daniel; Molino, Jean-François; Pitman, Nigel; Mogollón, Hugo; Neill, David; Cerón, Carlos; Rivas-Torres, Gonzalo; Di Fiore, Anthony; Thomas, Raquel; Tirado, Milton; Young, Kenneth R; Wang, Ophelia; Sierra, Rodrigo; García-Villacorta, Roosevelt; Zagt, Roderick; Palacios Cuenca, Walter; Aulestia, Milton; Ter Steege, Hans

2017-06-01

With many sophisticated methods available for estimating migration, ecologists face the difficult decision of choosing for their specific line of work. Here we test and compare several methods, performing sanity and robustness tests, applying to large-scale data and discussing the results and interpretation. Five methods were selected to compare for their ability to estimate migration from spatially implicit and semi-explicit simulations based on three large-scale field datasets from South America (Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana and Ecuador). Space was incorporated semi-explicitly by a discrete probability mass function for local recruitment, migration from adjacent plots or from a metacommunity. Most methods were able to accurately estimate migration from spatially implicit simulations. For spatially semi-explicit simulations, estimation was shown to be the additive effect of migration from adjacent plots and the metacommunity. It was only accurate when migration from the metacommunity outweighed that of adjacent plots, discrimination, however, proved to be impossible. We show that migration should be considered more an approximation of the resemblance between communities and the summed regional species pool. Application of migration estimates to simulate field datasets did show reasonably good fits and indicated consistent differences between sets in comparison with earlier studies. We conclude that estimates of migration using these methods are more an approximation of the homogenization among local communities over time rather than a direct measurement of migration and hence have a direct relationship with beta diversity. As betadiversity is the result of many (non)-neutral processes, we have to admit that migration as estimated in a spatial explicit world encompasses not only direct migration but is an ecological aggregate of these processes. The parameter m of neutral models then appears more as an emerging property revealed by neutral theory instead of being an effective mechanistic parameter and spatially implicit models should be rejected as an approximation of forest dynamics.

Timing of spring wild turkey hunting in relation to nest incubation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Casalena, Mary Jo; Everett, Rex; Vreeland, Wendy C.; Gregg, Ian D.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

2016-01-01

State wildlife agencies are often requested to open spring wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo; hereafter, turkey) hunting seasons earlier to increase hunter satisfaction by hunters hearing more gobbling male turkeys. Timing of spring turkey hunting season in several states, including Pennsylvania, has been established to open, on average, near median date of incubation initiation of turkey nests. This is believed to reduce illegal and undesired hen harvest and possibly nest abandonment, while maintaining hunter satisfaction of hearing male turkeys when most hens are incubating eggs. However, Pennsylvania’s spring season structure was established in 1968. Given earlier spring phenology, and potentially more variation in spring weather due to climate change, there is concern that timing of nest incubation for turkeys in Pennsylvania could be changing. Therefore, our objective was to determine if nest incubation and opening of spring turkey hunting in Pennsylvania have continued to coincide. We attached satellite transmitters to 254 female turkeys during 2010–2014 and estimated median incubation initiation date to be 2 May, which was 2 days earlier than median date during a statewide study during 1953–1963 and 9 days earlier than during a smaller scale study in south–central Pennsylvania during 2000–2001. However, incubation initiation varied greatly among years and individual hens during all 3 studies. During 4 of 5 years of our study, Pennsylvania’s spring season opened 3 to 8 days prior to median date of incubation initiation. Over the 5 years, estimated initiation of incubation for first nesting attempts, measured from earliest date of incubation initiation to latest, was >2 months and maximum proportion of hens beginning incubation at any one time differed by several days to >1 week. Consequently, in years of late incubation, a constant season opening date set near the long-term median date of incubation initiation exposes few additional hens to risk and hunter satisfaction is likely maintained at greater levels than would be seen with a more conservative approach of opening the season later. Long-term and large scale studies using GPS transmitters that provide precise determination of incubation initiation will be useful to study environmental influences on initiation of incubation.

Cross cultural analysis of factors associated with age at natural menopause among Latin-American immigrants to Madrid and their Spanish neighbors.

PubMed

Pérez-Alcalá, Irene; Sievert, Lynnette Leidy; Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf; Reher, David Sven

2013-01-01

In this study, age at menopause was examined in relation to demographic and life style factors among Latin-American immigrants to Madrid and their Spanish counterparts. Respondents were drawn from the Decisions at Menopause Study (2002-2003) and from a recent sample of Latin-American immigrants to Madrid (2010-2011). The final sample included 484 women after excluding women with induced menopause and use of HT. Probit analyses and Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate median age at menopause and to identify factors associated with an early age at menopause. Median estimated age at natural menopause was 52.0 years (51.2-53.0) for Spanish women and 50.5 years (49.9-51.2) for Latin-American women. Immigrant women were more likely to reach menopause at an earlier age after controlling for confounding factors. Nulliparity and lower levels of education were associated with an earlier age at menopause. A higher body mass index was associated with a later age at menopause in the Spanish model. Among the Latin-American sample, women from the Dominican Republic and women who underwent menopause before migrating were more likely to reach menopause at an earlier age. The results reported here demonstrate that early life events, including place of birth, and later life events, such as timing of migration, were associated with age at menopause. This study highlights the importance of taking into account differences in the age of onset of menopause in the multicultural population of Madrid when considering the health of women at midlife and beyond. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Statistical downscaling of general-circulation-model- simulated average monthly air temperature to the beginning of flowering of the dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) in Slovenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergant, Klemen; Kajfež-Bogataj, Lučka; Črepinšek, Zalika

2002-02-01

Phenological observations are a valuable source of information for investigating the relationship between climate variation and plant development. Potential climate change in the future will shift the occurrence of phenological phases. Information about future climate conditions is needed in order to estimate this shift. General circulation models (GCM) provide the best information about future climate change. They are able to simulate reliably the most important mean features on a large scale, but they fail on a regional scale because of their low spatial resolution. A common approach to bridging the scale gap is statistical downscaling, which was used to relate the beginning of flowering of Taraxacum officinale in Slovenia with the monthly mean near-surface air temperature for January, February and March in Central Europe. Statistical models were developed and tested with NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis predictor data and EARS predictand data for the period 1960-1999. Prior to developing statistical models, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was employed on the predictor data. Multiple linear regression was used to relate the beginning of flowering with expansion coefficients of the first three EOF for the Janauary, Febrauary and March air temperatures, and a strong correlation was found between them. Developed statistical models were employed on the results of two GCM (HadCM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3) to estimate the potential shifts in the beginning of flowering for the periods 1990-2019 and 2020-2049 in comparison with the period 1960-1989. The HadCM3 model predicts, on average, 4 days earlier occurrence and ECHAM4/OPYC3 5 days earlier occurrence of flowering in the period 1990-2019. The analogous results for the period 2020-2049 are a 10- and 11-day earlier occurrence.

Bladder cancer incidence among workers exposed to o-toluidine, aniline and nitrobenzene at a rubber chemical manufacturing plant

PubMed Central

Carreón, Tania; Hein, Misty J; Hanley, Kevin W; Viet, Susan M; Ruder, Avima M

2015-01-01

Background An earlier investigation found increased bladder cancer incidence among workers at a rubber chemical manufacturing plant that used o-toluidine, aniline and nitrobenzene. The cohort was expanded to include additional workers (n=1875) and updated through 2007 to assess bladder cancer with improved exposure characterisation. Methods Work histories were updated and exposure categories and ranks were developed for o-toluidine, aniline and nitrobenzene combined. Incident cancers were identified by linkage to six state cancer registries. Residency in time-dependent cancer registry catchment areas was determined. SIR and standardised rate ratios for bladder cancer were calculated by exposure category and cumulative rank quartiles for different lag periods. Cox regression was used to model bladder cancer incidence with estimated cumulative rank, adjusting for confounders. Indirect methods were used to control for smoking. Results Excess bladder cancer was observed compared to the New York State population (SIR=2.87, 95% CI 2.02 to 3.96), with higher elevations among workers definitely exposed (moderate/high) (SIR=3.90, 95% CI 2.57 to 5.68), and in the highest cumulative rank quartile (SIR=6.13, 95% CI 2.80 to 11.6, 10-year lag). Bladder cancer rates increased significantly with estimated cumulative rank (10-year lag). Smoking only accounted for an estimated 8% elevation in bladder cancer incidence. Conclusions Bladder cancer incidence remains elevated in this cohort and significantly associated with estimated cumulative exposure. Results are consistent with earlier findings in this and other cohorts. Despite other concurrent chemical exposures, we consider o-toluidine most likely responsible for the bladder cancer incidence elevation and recommend a re-examination of occupational exposure limits. PMID:24368697

Motion of the Scotia sea plates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, C.; Livermore, R.; Pollitz, F.

2003-01-01

Earthquake data from the Scotia Arc to early 2002 are reviewed in the light of satellite gravity and other data in order to derive a model for the motion of plates in the Scotia Sea region. Events with magnitude ???5, which occurred on or near the boundaries of the Scotia and Sandwich plates, and for which Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) solutions are available, are examined. The newer data fill some of the previous sampling gaps along the boundaries of the Scotia and Sandwich plates, and provide tighter constraints on relative motions. Variations in the width of the Brunhes anomaly on evenly spaced marine magnetic profiles over the East Scotia Ridge provide new estimates of Scotia-Sandwich plate spreading rates. Since there are no stable fracture zones in the east Scotia Sea, the mean azimuth of sea floor fabric mapped by sidescan is used to constrain the direction of spreading. 18 new rate estimates and four azimuths from the East Scotia Ridge are combined with 68 selected earthquake slip vectors from the boundaries of the Scotia Sea in a least-squares inversion for the best-fitting set of Euler poles and angular rotation rates describing the 'present-day' motions of the Scotia and Sandwich plates relative to South America and Antarctica. Our preferred model (TLP2003) gives poles that are similar to previous estimates, except for Scotia Plate motion with respect to South America, which is significantly different from earlier estimates; predicted rates of motion also differ slightly. Our results are much more robust than earlier work. We examine the implications of the model for motion and deformation along the various plate boundaries, with particular reference to the North and South Scotia Ridges, where rates are obtained by closure.

Winter and early spring CO2 efflux from tundra communities of northern Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fahnestock, J. T.; Jones, M. H.; Brooks, P. D.; Walker, D. A.; Welker, J. M.

1998-11-01

Carbon dioxide concentrations through snow were measured in different arctic tundra communities on the North Slope of Alaska during winter and early spring of 1996. Subnivean CO2 concentrations were always higher than atmospheric CO2. A steady state diffusion model was used to generate conservative estimates of CO2 flux to the atmosphere. The magnitude of CO2 efflux differed with tundra community type, and rates of carbon release increased from March to May. Winter CO2 efflux was highest in riparian and snow bed communities and lowest in dry heath, upland tussock, and wet sedge communities. Snow generally accrues earlier in winter and is deeper in riparian and snow bed communities compared with other tundra communities, which are typically windswept and do not accumulate much snow during the winter. These results support the hypothesis that early and deep snow accumulation may insulate microbial populations from very cold temperatures, allowing sites with earlier snow cover to sustain higher levels of activity throughout winter compared to communities that have later developing snow cover. Extrapolating our estimates of CO2 efflux to the entire snow-covered season indicates that total carbon flux during winter in the Arctic is 13-109 kg CO2-C ha-1, depending on the vegetation community type. Wintertime CO2 flux is a potentially important, yet largely overlooked, part of the annual carbon cycle of tundra, and carbon release during winter should be accounted for in estimates of annual carbon balance in arctic ecosystems.

Approximating a DSM-5 Diagnosis of PTSD Using DSM-IV Criteria

PubMed Central

Rosellini, Anthony J.; Stein, Murray B.; Colpe, Lisa J.; Heeringa, Steven G.; Petukhova, Maria V.; Sampson, Nancy A.; Schoenbaum, Michael; Ursano, Robert J.; Kessler, Ronald C.

2015-01-01

Background Diagnostic criteria for DSM-5 posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are in many ways similar to DSM-IV criteria, raising the possibility that it might be possible to closely approximate DSM-5 diagnoses using DSM-IV symptoms. If so, the resulting transformation rules could be used to pool research data based on the two criteria sets. Methods The Pre-Post Deployment Study (PPDS) of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) administered a blended 30-day DSM-IV and DSM-5 PTSD symptom assessment based on the civilian PTSD Checklist for DSM-IV (PCL-C) and the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5). This assessment was completed by 9,193 soldiers from three US Army Brigade Combat Teams approximately three months after returning from Afghanistan. PCL-C items were used to operationalize conservative and broad approximations of DSM-5 PTSD diagnoses. The operating characteristics of these approximations were examined compared to diagnoses based on actual DSM-5 criteria. Results The estimated 30-day prevalence of DSM-5 PTSD based on conservative (4.3%) and broad (4.7%) approximations of DSM-5 criteria using DSM-IV symptom assessments were similar to estimates based on actual DSM-5 criteria (4.6%). Both approximations had excellent sensitivity (92.6-95.5%), specificity (99.6-99.9%), total classification accuracy (99.4-99.6%), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.96-0.98). Conclusions DSM-IV symptoms can be used to approximate DSM-5 diagnoses of PTSD among recently-deployed soldiers, making it possible to recode symptom-level data from earlier DSM-IV studies to draw inferences about DSM-5 PTSD. However, replication is needed in broader trauma-exposed samples to evaluate the external validity of this finding. PMID:25845710

MARS-OZ - A Design for a Simulated Mars Base in the Australian Outback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willson, D.; Clarke, J. D. A.; Murphy, G.

Mars Society Australia has developed the design of a simulated Mars base, MARS-OZ, for deployment in outback Australia. MARS-OZ will provide a platform for a diverse range of Mars analogue research in Australia. The simulated base consists of two mobile modules whose dimensions and shape approximate those of horizontally landed bent biconic spacecraft described in an earlier paper. The modules are designed to support field engineering, robotics, architectural, geological, biological and human factors research at varying levels of simulation fidelity. Non-Mars related research can also be accommodated, for example general field geology and biology, and engineering research associated with sustainable, low impact architecture. Crews of up to eight can be accommodated. In addition to its research function, the base also will serve as a centre of space education and outreach activities. The prime site for the MARS-OZ simulated base is located in the northern Flinders Ranges near Arkaroola in South Australia. This region contains many features that provide useful scientific analogues to known or possible past and present conditions on Mars from both a geological and biological perspective. The features will provide a wealth of study opportunities for crews. The very diverse terrain and regolith materials will provide ideal opportunities to field trial a range of equipment, sensors and exploration strategies. If needed, the prime site can be secured from casual visitors, allowing research into human interaction in isolation. Despite its relative isolation, the site is readily accessible by road and air from major Australian centres. This paper provides description of the configuration, design and construction of the proposed facility, its interior layout, equipment and systems fitouts, a detailed cost estimate, and its deployment. We estimate that the deployment of MARS-OZ could occur within nine months of securing funding.

Pcetk: A pDynamo-based Toolkit for Protonation State Calculations in Proteins.

PubMed

Feliks, Mikolaj; Field, Martin J

2015-10-26

Pcetk (a pDynamo-based continuum electrostatic toolkit) is an open-source, object-oriented toolkit for the calculation of proton binding energetics in proteins. The toolkit is a module of the pDynamo software library, combining the versatility of the Python scripting language and the efficiency of the compiled languages, C and Cython. In the toolkit, we have connected pDynamo to the external Poisson-Boltzmann solver, extended-MEAD. Our goal was to provide a modern and extensible environment for the calculation of protonation states, electrostatic energies, titration curves, and other electrostatic-dependent properties of proteins. Pcetk is freely available under the CeCILL license, which is compatible with the GNU General Public License. The toolkit can be found on the Web at the address http://github.com/mfx9/pcetk. The calculation of protonation states in proteins requires a knowledge of pKa values of protonatable groups in aqueous solution. However, for some groups, such as protonatable ligands bound to protein, the pKa aq values are often difficult to obtain from experiment. As a complement to Pcetk, we revisit an earlier computational method for the estimation of pKa aq values that has an accuracy of ± 0.5 pKa-units or better. Finally, we verify the Pcetk module and the method for estimating pKa aq values with different model cases.

An interview-based approach to assess sea turtle bycatch in Italian waters

PubMed Central

Vasapollo, Claudio; Virgili, Massimo

2017-01-01

The loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta, Linnaeus, 1758) is the most abundant sea turtle species in the Mediterranean Sea, where commercial fishing appears to be the main driver of mortality. So far, information on sea turtle bycatch in Italy is limited both in space and time due to logistical problems in data collected through onboard observations and on a limited number of vessels involved. In the present study, sea turtle bycatch in Italian waters was examined by collecting fishermen’s information on turtle bycatch through an interview-based approach. Their replies enabled the identification of bycatch hotspots in relation to area, season and to the main gear types. The most harmful fishing gears resulted to be trawl nets, showing the highest probabilities of turtle bycatch with a hotspot in the Adriatic Sea, followed by longlines in the Ionian Sea and in the Sicily Channel. Estimates obtained by the present results showed that more than 52,000 capture events and 10,000 deaths occurred in Italian waters in 2014, highlighting a more alarming scenario than earlier studies. The work shows that in case of poor data from other sources, direct questioning of fishermen and stakeholders could represent a useful and cost-effective approach capable of providing sufficient data to estimate annual bycatch rates and identify high-risk gear/location/season combinations. PMID:28462017

Reconstructing the Initial Human Occupation of the Northern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madsen, David; Brantingham, Jeffrey; Sun, Yongjuan; Rhode, David; Mingjie, Yi; Perreault, Charles

2017-04-01

We identified and dated 20 archaeological sites, many containing multiple occupations, above 3000 m on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during a decade-long Sino-American Tibet Paleolithic Project. The ages of these sites are controlled by 68 AMS radiocarbon dates, as well as associated luminescence age estimates. Together these sites suggest the initial occupation of the high northern TP occurred in two phases: 1) an early phase dating to 16-8 ka, characterized by short-term hunting camps occupied by small groups of foragers likely originating from lower elevation, but relatively nearby, base camps; and 2) a later phase dating to 8-5 ka, characterized by longer-term residential camps likely occupied by larger family groups also originating from nearby lower elevations. Whether or not these later family groups were full-time foragers or were pastoralists linked to farming communities remains under investigation. This pattern closely matches genetically-based estimates of rapid population increases. Both phases appear related to major climatic episodes: a period of rapid post-glacial warming, spread of higher elevation alpine grassland/meadow environments, and enhanced populations of larger herbivores; and a period of mid-Holocene warming that allowed farming/pastoralism to develop at higher elevations. We identified no sites dating to the LGM or earlier and genetic separation of Tibetan populations likely occurred on the lower elevation plateau margins. By 5 ka essentially modern settlement/subsistence patterns were established.

Overcoming the Problems of Inconsistent International Migration data: A New Method Applied to Flows in Europe

PubMed Central

Raymer, James; van der Erf, Rob; van Wissen, Leo

2010-01-01

Due to differences in definitions and measurement methods, cross-country comparisons of international migration patterns are difficult and confusing. Emigration numbers reported by sending countries tend to differ from the corresponding immigration numbers reported by receiving countries. In this paper, a methodology is presented to achieve harmonised estimates of migration flows benchmarked to a specific definition of duration. This methodology accounts for both differences in definitions and the effects of measurement error due to, for example, under reporting and sampling fluctuations. More specifically, the differences between the two sets of reported data are overcome by estimating a set of adjustment factors for each country’s immigration and emigration data. The adjusted data take into account any special cases where the origin–destination patterns do not match the overall patterns. The new method for harmonising migration flows that we present is based on earlier efforts by Poulain (European Journal of Population, 9(4): 353–381 1993, Working Paper 12, joint ECE-Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, Geneva, Switzerland 1999) and is illustrated for movements between 19 European countries from 2002 to 2007. The results represent a reliable and consistent set of international migration flows that can be used for understanding recent changes in migration patterns, as inputs into population projections and for developing evidence-based migration policies. PMID:21124647

Overcoming the Problems of Inconsistent International Migration data: A New Method Applied to Flows in Europe.

PubMed

de Beer, Joop; Raymer, James; van der Erf, Rob; van Wissen, Leo

2010-11-01

Due to differences in definitions and measurement methods, cross-country comparisons of international migration patterns are difficult and confusing. Emigration numbers reported by sending countries tend to differ from the corresponding immigration numbers reported by receiving countries. In this paper, a methodology is presented to achieve harmonised estimates of migration flows benchmarked to a specific definition of duration. This methodology accounts for both differences in definitions and the effects of measurement error due to, for example, under reporting and sampling fluctuations. More specifically, the differences between the two sets of reported data are overcome by estimating a set of adjustment factors for each country's immigration and emigration data. The adjusted data take into account any special cases where the origin-destination patterns do not match the overall patterns. The new method for harmonising migration flows that we present is based on earlier efforts by Poulain (European Journal of Population, 9(4): 353-381 1993, Working Paper 12, joint ECE-Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, Geneva, Switzerland 1999) and is illustrated for movements between 19 European countries from 2002 to 2007. The results represent a reliable and consistent set of international migration flows that can be used for understanding recent changes in migration patterns, as inputs into population projections and for developing evidence-based migration policies.

Phylogeny and systematics of the brake fern genus Pteris (Pteridaceae) based on molecular (plastid and nuclear) and morphological evidence.

PubMed

Zhang, Liang; Zhang, Li-Bing

2018-01-01

The brake fern genus Pteris belongs to Pteridaceae subfamily Pteridoideae. It is one of the largest fern genera and has been estimated to contain 200-250 species distributed on all continents except Antarctica. Previous studies were either based on plastid data only or based on both plastid and nuclear data but the sampling was small. In addition, an infrageneric classification of Pteris based on morphological and molecular evidence has not been available yet. In the present study, based on molecular data of eight plastid markers and one nuclear marker (gapCp) of 256 accessions representing ca. 178 species of Pteris, we reconstruct a global phylogeny of Pteris. The 15 major clades identified earlier are recovered here and we further identified a new major clade. Our nuclear phylogeny recovered 11 of these 16 major clades, seven of which are strongly supported. The inclusion of Schizostege in Pteris is confirmed for the first time. Based on the newly reconstructed phylogeny and evidence from morphology, distribution and/or ecology, we classify Pteris into three subgenera: P. subg. Pteris, P. subg. Campteria, and P. subg. Platyzoma. The former two are further divided into three and 12 sections, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The direct and indirect costs of both overweight and obesity: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The rising prevalence of overweight and obesity places a financial burden on health services and on the wider economy. Health service and societal costs of overweight and obesity are typically estimated by top-down approaches which derive population attributable fractions for a range of conditions associated with increased body fat or bottom-up methods based on analyses of cross-sectional or longitudinal datasets. The evidence base of cost of obesity studies is continually expanding, however, the scope of these studies varies widely and a lack of standardised methods limits comparisons nationally and internationally. The objective of this review is to contribute to this knowledge pool by examining direct costs and indirect (lost productivity) costs of both overweight and obesity to provide comparable estimates. This review was undertaken as part of the introductory work for the Irish cost of overweight and obesity study and examines inconsistencies in the methodologies of cost of overweight and obesity studies. Studies which evaluated the direct costs and indirect costs of both overweight and obesity were included. Methods A computerised search of English language studies addressing direct and indirect costs of overweight and obesity in adults between 2001 and 2011 was conducted. Reference lists of reports, articles and earlier reviews were scanned to identify additional studies. Results Five published articles were deemed eligible for inclusion. Despite the limited scope of this review there was considerable heterogeneity in methodological approaches and findings. In the four studies which presented separate estimates for direct and indirect costs of overweight and obesity, the indirect costs were higher, accounting for between 54% and 59% of the estimated total costs. Conclusion A gradient exists between increasing BMI and direct healthcare costs and indirect costs due to reduced productivity and early premature mortality. Determining precise estimates for the increases is mired by the large presence of heterogeneity among the available cost estimation literature. To improve the availability of quality evidence an international consensus on standardised methods for cost of obesity studies is warranted. Analyses of nationally representative cross-sectional datasets augmented by data from primary care are likely to provide the best data for international comparisons. PMID:24739239

The direct and indirect costs of both overweight and obesity: a systematic review.

PubMed

Dee, Anne; Kearns, Karen; O'Neill, Ciaran; Sharp, Linda; Staines, Anthony; O'Dwyer, Victoria; Fitzgerald, Sarah; Perry, Ivan J

2014-04-16

The rising prevalence of overweight and obesity places a financial burden on health services and on the wider economy. Health service and societal costs of overweight and obesity are typically estimated by top-down approaches which derive population attributable fractions for a range of conditions associated with increased body fat or bottom-up methods based on analyses of cross-sectional or longitudinal datasets. The evidence base of cost of obesity studies is continually expanding, however, the scope of these studies varies widely and a lack of standardised methods limits comparisons nationally and internationally. The objective of this review is to contribute to this knowledge pool by examining direct costs and indirect (lost productivity) costs of both overweight and obesity to provide comparable estimates. This review was undertaken as part of the introductory work for the Irish cost of overweight and obesity study and examines inconsistencies in the methodologies of cost of overweight and obesity studies. Studies which evaluated the direct costs and indirect costs of both overweight and obesity were included. A computerised search of English language studies addressing direct and indirect costs of overweight and obesity in adults between 2001 and 2011 was conducted. Reference lists of reports, articles and earlier reviews were scanned to identify additional studies. Five published articles were deemed eligible for inclusion. Despite the limited scope of this review there was considerable heterogeneity in methodological approaches and findings. In the four studies which presented separate estimates for direct and indirect costs of overweight and obesity, the indirect costs were higher, accounting for between 54% and 59% of the estimated total costs. A gradient exists between increasing BMI and direct healthcare costs and indirect costs due to reduced productivity and early premature mortality. Determining precise estimates for the increases is mired by the large presence of heterogeneity among the available cost estimation literature. To improve the availability of quality evidence an international consensus on standardised methods for cost of obesity studies is warranted. Analyses of nationally representative cross-sectional datasets augmented by data from primary care are likely to provide the best data for international comparisons.

Estimating TCR using an integrated model-observation framework that accounts for spatio-temporal variability and pre-industrial radiative imbalances.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haustein, K.; Schurer, A. P.; Venema, V.

2016-12-01

Apart from a few exceptions (e.g. Aldrin et al. 2012, Skeie et al. 2013) TCR estimates with EBMs are based on global data. Since these estimates don't represent the true spatial-temporal behaviour for observed temperature as well as external forcing (Marvel et al. 2015), we have developed a two-box EBM framework that accounts for these effects. In addition, external forcing from anthropogenic aerosol and GHGs tends to have different response times in comparison to volcanic stratospheric aerosols. Using PMIP3 and an extended ensemble of HadCM3 simulations (Euro500; Schurer et al. 2014) GCM simulations for the pre-industrial period, we obtain the fast and slow response time constants required in the EBM. With the most recent anthropogenic and natural forcing estimates, we test a range of TCR values against observations. The TCR/ECS ratio necessary to achieve that goal is taken from CMIP5 as observationally OHC-based estimates are notoriously unreliable. Given that observed and modelled OHC estimates are in agreement (Cheng et al. 2016), we argue that this should be the standard procedure the make inferences about ECS. Alternatively, it should be distinguished between equilibrium and effective climate sensitivity. The preliminary best estimate for TCR is 1.6K (1.1-2.2K) with an associated ECS value of 2.9K (2.0-4.0K). This is in good agreement with other D&A techniques that do use spatio-temporal patterns as well (e.g. Jones et al. 2016, Gillet et al. 2013). Correcting for natural ENSO variability and tas/tos-related inaccuracies (Richardson et al. 2016) further increases the robustness of the estimated sensitivity range. Our results also indicate that the small radiative imbalance caused by the period of very strong volcanic eruptions just before the CMIP5 historical period starts (1809-1840) has noteworthy implications for the response to later volcanic eruptions and the temperature evolution after 1850. Simply put, CMIP5-type simulations are slightly more sensitive to volcanic eruptions than PMIP3-type simulations. This has been pointed out in the literature before (e.g. Gleckler et al. 2006, Stenchikov et al. 2009, Gregory et al. 2010). We therefore argue that more PMIP3-type of experiments are needed to factor in the planetary energy imbalance caused by earlier volcanic eruptions.

Possible existence of wormholes in the central regions of halos

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rahaman, Farook, E-mail: rahaman@iucaa.ernet.in; Salucci, P., E-mail: salucci@sissa.it; INFN, Sezione di Trieste, Via Valerio 2, 34127, Trieste

2014-11-15

An earlier study (Rahaman, et al., 2014 and Kuhfittig, 2014) has demonstrated the possible existence of wormholes in the outer regions of the galactic halo, based on the Navarro–Frenk–White (NFW) density profile. This paper uses the Universal Rotation Curve (URC) dark matter model to obtain analogous results for the central parts of the halo. This result is an important compliment to the earlier result, thereby confirming the possible existence of wormholes in most of the spiral galaxies. - Highlights: • Earlier we showed possible existence of wormholes in the outer regions of halo. • We obtain here analogous results for themore » central parts of the galactic halo. • Our result is an important compliment to the earlier result. • This confirms possible existence of wormholes in most of the spiral galaxies.« less

Realizable feed-element patterns and optimum aperture efficiency in multibeam antenna systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yngvesson, K. S.; Rahmat-Samii, Y.; Johansson, J. F.; Kim, Y. S.

1988-01-01

The results of an earlier paper by Rahmat-Samii et al. (1981), regarding realizable patterns from feed elements that are part of an array that feeds a reflector antenna, are extended. The earlier paper used a cos exp q theta model for the element radiation pattern, whereas here a parametric study is performed, using a model that assumes a central beam of cos exp q theta shape, with a constant sidelobe level outside the central beam. Realizable q-values are constrained by the maximum directivity based on feed element area. The optimum aperture efficiency (excluding array feed network losses) in an array-reflector system is evaluated as a function of element spacing using this model as well as the model of the earlier paper. Experimental data for tapered slot antenna (TSA) arrays are in agreement with the conclusions based on the model.

Amphibian breeding phenology trends under climate change: predicting the past to forecast the future.

PubMed

Green, David M

2017-02-01

Global climate warming is predicted to hasten the onset of spring breeding by anuran amphibians in seasonal environments. Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals' prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads' eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. Using the model to estimate of past dates of spring breeding (i.e. retrodiction) indicated that even three decades of data were insufficient to discern any appreciable phenological trend in these toads. However, by employing weather data dating back to 1876, I detected a significant trend over 140 years towards earlier spring emergence by the toads by less than half a day/decade, while, over the same period of time, average annual air temperature and annual precipitation had both increased. Changes in the springtime breeding phenology for late-breeding species, such as Fowler's Toads, therefore may conform to expectations of earlier breeding under global warming. Improved understanding of the environmental cues that bring organisms out of winter dormancy will enable better interpretation of long-term phenological trends. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reconstructing Native American migrations from whole-genome and whole-exome data.

PubMed

Gravel, Simon; Zakharia, Fouad; Moreno-Estrada, Andres; Byrnes, Jake K; Muzzio, Marina; Rodriguez-Flores, Juan L; Kenny, Eimear E; Gignoux, Christopher R; Maples, Brian K; Guiblet, Wilfried; Dutil, Julie; Via, Marc; Sandoval, Karla; Bedoya, Gabriel; Oleksyk, Taras K; Ruiz-Linares, Andres; Burchard, Esteban G; Martinez-Cruzado, Juan Carlos; Bustamante, Carlos D

2013-01-01

There is great scientific and popular interest in understanding the genetic history of populations in the Americas. We wish to understand when different regions of the continent were inhabited, where settlers came from, and how current inhabitants relate genetically to earlier populations. Recent studies unraveled parts of the genetic history of the continent using genotyping arrays and uniparental markers. The 1000 Genomes Project provides a unique opportunity for improving our understanding of population genetic history by providing over a hundred sequenced low coverage genomes and exomes from Colombian (CLM), Mexican-American (MXL), and Puerto Rican (PUR) populations. Here, we explore the genomic contributions of African, European, and especially Native American ancestry to these populations. Estimated Native American ancestry is 48% in MXL, 25% in CLM, and 13% in PUR. Native American ancestry in PUR is most closely related to populations surrounding the Orinoco River basin, confirming the Southern American ancestry of the Taíno people of the Caribbean. We present new methods to estimate the allele frequencies in the Native American fraction of the populations, and model their distribution using a demographic model for three ancestral Native American populations. These ancestral populations likely split in close succession: the most likely scenario, based on a peopling of the Americas 16 thousand years ago (kya), supports that the MXL Ancestors split 12.2kya, with a subsequent split of the ancestors to CLM and PUR 11.7kya. The model also features effective populations of 62,000 in Mexico, 8,700 in Colombia, and 1,900 in Puerto Rico. Modeling Identity-by-descent (IBD) and ancestry tract length, we show that post-contact populations also differ markedly in their effective sizes and migration patterns, with Puerto Rico showing the smallest effective size and the earlier migration from Europe. Finally, we compare IBD and ancestry assignments to find evidence for relatedness among European founders to the three populations.

Minimizing the effects of multicollinearity in the polynomial regression of age relationships and sex differences in serum levels of pregnenolone sulfate in healthy subjects.

PubMed

Meloun, Milan; Hill, Martin; Vceláková-Havlíková, Helena

2009-01-01

Pregnenolone sulfate (PregS) is known as a steroid conjugate positively modulating N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors on neuronal membranes. These receptors are responsible for permeability of calcium channels and activation of neuronal function. Neuroactivating effect of PregS is also exerted via non-competitive negative modulation of GABA(A) receptors regulating the chloride influx. Recently, a penetrability of blood-brain barrier for PregS was found in rat, but some experiments in agreement with this finding were reported even earlier. It is known that circulating levels of PregS in human are relatively high depending primarily on age and adrenal activity. Concerning the neuromodulating effect of PregS, we recently evaluated age relationships of PregS in both sexes using polynomial regression models known to bring about the problems of multicollinearity, i.e., strong correlations among independent variables. Several criteria for the selection of suitable bias are demonstrated. Biased estimators based on the generalized principal component regression (GPCR) method avoiding multicollinearity problems are described. Significant differences were found between men and women in the course of the age dependence of PregS. In women, a significant maximum was found around the 30th year followed by a rapid decline, while the maximum in men was achieved almost 10 years earlier and changes were minor up to the 60th year. The investigation of gender differences and age dependencies in PregS could be of interest given its well-known neurostimulating effect, relatively high serum concentration, and the probable partial permeability of the blood-brain barrier for the steroid conjugate. GPCR in combination with the MEP (mean quadric error of prediction) criterion is extremely useful and appealing for constructing biased models. It can also be used for achieving such estimates with regard to keeping the model course corresponding to the data trend, especially in polynomial type regression models.

Substance Dependence among those without symptoms of Substance Abuse in the World Mental Health Survey

PubMed Central

Lago, Luise; Glantz, Meyer; Kessler, Ronald C.; Sampson, Nancy; Al-Hamzawi, Ali; Florescu, Silvia; Moskalewicz, Jacek; Murphy, Sam; Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; de Galvis, Yolanda Torres; Viana, Maria Carmen; Xavier, Miguel; Degenhardt, Louisa

2017-01-01

The WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Initiative uses the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) for data collection and operationalizes diagnoses using DSM-IV criteria. The first 13 WMH surveys used CIDI version 3.0, which only assessed substance dependence among respondents with a history of substance abuse, while subsequent surveys also assessed substance dependence without symptoms of abuse. The aim of the current report is to compare results across the two sets of surveys to assess the implications of the revised skip logic and develop an imputation model for missing values of lifetime dependence without symptoms of abuse in the earlier surveys. Prevalence of lifetime dependence without symptoms of abuse was low in the second set of WMH surveys (0.3% for alcohol and 0.2% for drugs). Regression-based imputation models were built in random half-samples of the new surveys and validated in the other half-samples. There were minimal difference in the distributions of imputed and reported cases in the validation dataset for important correlates such as age, gender and quantity though higher numbers of additional mental disorders and number of days out of role were found in the imputed than reported cases. Concordance between imputed and observed estimates of total lifetime dependence in the full sample was high both for alcohol dependence (sensitivity 88.0%, specificity 99.8%, TCA 99.5% and AUC 0.94) and drug dependence (sensitivity 100.0%, specificity 99.8%, TCA 99.8% and AUC 1.00). This study provides cross-national evidence of the degree to which each of lifetime alcohol dependence and lifetime drug dependence occur without symptoms of abuse. Additionally imputation of substance dependence without symptoms of abuse in the earlier WMH surveys will result in improved estimates of lifetime prevalence for comparison with other epidemiological studies both cross-nationally and over time. PMID:28211594

Reconstructing Native American Migrations from Whole-Genome and Whole-Exome Data

PubMed Central

Gravel, Simon; Muzzio, Marina; Rodriguez-Flores, Juan L.; Kenny, Eimear E.; Gignoux, Christopher R.; Maples, Brian K.; Guiblet, Wilfried; Dutil, Julie; Via, Marc; Sandoval, Karla; Bedoya, Gabriel; Oleksyk, Taras K.; Ruiz-Linares, Andres; Burchard, Esteban G.; Martinez-Cruzado, Juan Carlos; Bustamante, Carlos D.

2013-01-01

There is great scientific and popular interest in understanding the genetic history of populations in the Americas. We wish to understand when different regions of the continent were inhabited, where settlers came from, and how current inhabitants relate genetically to earlier populations. Recent studies unraveled parts of the genetic history of the continent using genotyping arrays and uniparental markers. The 1000 Genomes Project provides a unique opportunity for improving our understanding of population genetic history by providing over a hundred sequenced low coverage genomes and exomes from Colombian (CLM), Mexican-American (MXL), and Puerto Rican (PUR) populations. Here, we explore the genomic contributions of African, European, and especially Native American ancestry to these populations. Estimated Native American ancestry is in MXL, in CLM, and in PUR. Native American ancestry in PUR is most closely related to populations surrounding the Orinoco River basin, confirming the Southern America ancestry of the Taíno people of the Caribbean. We present new methods to estimate the allele frequencies in the Native American fraction of the populations, and model their distribution using a demographic model for three ancestral Native American populations. These ancestral populations likely split in close succession: the most likely scenario, based on a peopling of the Americas thousand years ago (kya), supports that the MXL Ancestors split kya, with a subsequent split of the ancestors to CLM and PUR kya. The model also features effective populations of in Mexico, in Colombia, and in Puerto Rico. Modeling Identity-by-descent (IBD) and ancestry tract length, we show that post-contact populations also differ markedly in their effective sizes and migration patterns, with Puerto Rico showing the smallest effective size and the earlier migration from Europe. Finally, we compare IBD and ancestry assignments to find evidence for relatedness among European founders to the three populations. PMID:24385924

Land Surface Precipitation and Hydrology in MERRA-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Draper, C.; Liu, Q.; Girotto, M.; Mahanama, S.; De Lannoy, G.; Partyka, G.

2017-01-01

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), provides global, 1-hourly estimates of land surface conditions for 1980-present at 50-km resolution. Outside of the high latitudes, MERRA-2 uses observations-based precipitation data products to correct the precipitation falling on the land surface. This paper describes the precipitation correction method and evaluates the MERRA-2 land surface precipitation and hydrology. Compared to monthly GPCPv2.2 observations, the corrected MERRA-2 precipitation (M2CORR) is better than the precipitation generated by the atmospheric models within the cyclingMERRA-2 system and the earlier MERRA reanalysis. Compared to 3-hourlyTRMM observations, the M2CORR diurnal cycle has better amplitude but less realistic phasing than MERRA-2 model-generated precipitation. Because correcting the precipitation within the coupled atmosphere-land modeling system allows the MERRA-2 near-surface air temperature and humidity to respond to the improved precipitation forcing, MERRA-2 provides more self-consistent surface meteorological data than were available from the earlier, offline MERRA-Land reanalysis. Overall, MERRA-2 land hydrology estimates are better than those of MERRA-Land and MERRA. A comparison against GRACE satellite observations of terrestrial water storage demonstrates clear improvements in MERRA-2 over MERRA in South America and Africa but also reflects known errors in the observations used to correct the MERRA-2 precipitation. The MERRA-2 and MERRA-Land surface and root zone soil moisture skill vs. in situ measurements is slightly higher than that of ERA-Interim Land and higher than that of MERRA (significantly for surface soil moisture). Snow amounts from MERRA-2 have lower bias and correlate better against reference data than do those of MERRA-Land and MERRA, with MERRA-2 skill roughly matching that of ERA-Interim Land. Seasonal anomaly R values against naturalized stream flow measurements in the United States are, on balance, highest for MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim Land, somewhat lower for MERRA-Land, and lower still for MERRA.

Is Matang Mangrove Forest in Malaysia Sustainably Rejuvenating after More than a Century of Conservation and Harvesting Management?

PubMed Central

Van der Stocken, Tom; Quispe Zuniga, Melissa; Mohd-Lokman, Husain; Sulong, Ibrahim

2014-01-01

Matang Mangrove Forest Reserve (MMFR) in Peninsular Malaysia is under systematic management since 1902 and still considered as the best managed mangrove forest in the world. The present study on silvimetrics assessed the ongoing MMFR forest management, which includes a first thinning after 15 years, a second thinning after 20 years and clear-felling of 30-year old forest blocks, for its efficiency and productivity in comparison to natural mangroves. The estimated tree structural parameters (e.g. density, frequency) from three different-aged mangrove blocks of fifteen (MF15), twenty (MF20), and thirty (MF30) years old indicated that Bruguiera and Excoecaria spp. did not constitute a significant proportion of the vegetation (<5%), and hence the results focused majorly on Rhizophora apiculata. The density of R. apiculata at MF15, MF20 and MF30 was 4,331, 2,753 and 1,767 stems ha−1, respectively. In relation to ongoing practices of the artificial thinnings at MMFR, the present study suggests that the first thinning could be made earlier to limit the loss of exploitable wood due to natural thinning. In fact, the initial density at MF15 was expected to drop down from 6,726 to 1,858 trees ha−1 before the first thinning. Therefore the trees likely to qualify for natural thinning, though having a smaller stem diameter, should be exploited for domestic/commercial purposes at an earlier stage. The clear-felling block (MF30) with a maximum stem diameter of 30 cm was estimated to yield 372 t ha−1 of the above-ground biomass and suggests that the mangrove management based on a 30-year rotation is appropriate for the MMFR. Since Matang is the only iconic site that practicing sustainable wood production, it could be an exemplary to other mangrove locations for their improved management. PMID:25144689

Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study

PubMed Central

Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

2015-01-01

Background: Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Aim: Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Materials and Methods: Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. Results: There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Conclusion: Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis. PMID:26005298

How soft is that pillow? The perceptual localization of the hand and the haptic assessment of contact rigidity.

PubMed

Pressman, Assaf; Karniel, Amir; Mussa-Ivaldi, Ferdinando A

2011-04-27

A new haptic illusion is described, in which the location of the mobile object affects the perception of its rigidity. There is theoretical and experimental support for the notion that limb position sense results from the brain combining ongoing sensory information with expectations arising from prior experience. How does this probabilistic state information affect one's tactile perception of the environment mechanics? In a simple estimation process, human subjects were asked to report the relative rigidity of two simulated virtual objects. One of the objects remained fixed in space and had various coefficients of stiffness. The other virtual object had constant stiffness but moved with respect to the subjects. Earlier work suggested that the perception of an object's rigidity is consistent with a process of regression between the contact force and the perceived amount of penetration inside the object's boundary. The amount of penetration perceived by the subject was affected by varying the position of the object. This, in turn, had a predictable effect on the perceived rigidity of the contact. Subjects' reports on the relative rigidity of the object are best accounted for by a probabilistic model in which the perceived boundary of the object is estimated based on its current location and on past observations. Therefore, the perception of contact rigidity is accounted for by a stochastic process of state estimation underlying proprioceptive localization of the hand.

Early evolution of the angiosperm clade Asteraceae in the Cretaceous of Antarctica.

PubMed

Barreda, Viviana D; Palazzesi, Luis; Tellería, Maria C; Olivero, Eduardo B; Raine, J Ian; Forest, Félix

2015-09-01

The Asteraceae (sunflowers and daisies) are the most diverse family of flowering plants. Despite their prominent role in extant terrestrial ecosystems, the early evolutionary history of this family remains poorly understood. Here we report the discovery of a number of fossil pollen grains preserved in dinosaur-bearing deposits from the Late Cretaceous of Antarctica that drastically pushes back the timing of assumed origin of the family. Reliably dated to ∼76-66 Mya, these specimens are about 20 million years older than previously known records for the Asteraceae. Using a phylogenetic approach, we interpreted these fossil specimens as members of an extinct early diverging clade of the family, associated with subfamily Barnadesioideae. Based on a molecular phylogenetic tree calibrated using fossils, including the ones reported here, we estimated that the most recent common ancestor of the family lived at least 80 Mya in Gondwana, well before the thermal and biogeographical isolation of Antarctica. Most of the early diverging lineages of the family originated in a narrow time interval after the K/P boundary, 60-50 Mya, coinciding with a pronounced climatic warming during the Late Paleocene and Early Eocene, and the scene of a dramatic rise in flowering plant diversity. Our age estimates reduce earlier discrepancies between the age of the fossil record and previous molecular estimates for the origin of the family, bearing important implications in the evolution of flowering plants in general.

A soft computing scheme incorporating ANN and MOV energy in fault detection, classification and distance estimation of EHV transmission line with FSC.

PubMed

Khadke, Piyush; Patne, Nita; Singh, Arvind; Shinde, Gulab

2016-01-01

In this article, a novel and accurate scheme for fault detection, classification and fault distance estimation for a fixed series compensated transmission line is proposed. The proposed scheme is based on artificial neural network (ANN) and metal oxide varistor (MOV) energy, employing Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm. The novelty of this scheme is the use of MOV energy signals of fixed series capacitors (FSC) as input to train the ANN. Such approach has never been used in any earlier fault analysis algorithms in the last few decades. Proposed scheme uses only single end measurement energy signals of MOV in all the 3 phases over one cycle duration from the occurrence of a fault. Thereafter, these MOV energy signals are fed as input to ANN for fault distance estimation. Feasibility and reliability of the proposed scheme have been evaluated for all ten types of fault in test power system model at different fault inception angles over numerous fault locations. Real transmission system parameters of 3-phase 400 kV Wardha-Aurangabad transmission line (400 km) with 40 % FSC at Power Grid Wardha Substation, India is considered for this research. Extensive simulation experiments show that the proposed scheme provides quite accurate results which demonstrate complete protection scheme with high accuracy, simplicity and robustness.

Topological solitons in 8-spinor mie electrodynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rybakov, Yu. P., E-mail: soliton4@mail.ru

2013-10-15

We investigate the effective 8-spinor field model suggested earlier as the generalization of nonlinear Mie electrodynamics. We first study in pure spinorial model the existence of topological solitons endowed with the nontrivial Hopf invariant Q{sub H}, which can be interpreted as the lepton number. Electromagnetic field being included as the perturbation, we estimate the energy and the spin of the localized charged configuration.

Structural Integrity of Water Reactor Pressure Boundary Components.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-08-01

Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code , Sec. Ill). Estimates of the upper shelf K level from small-specimen...from Appendix A of Section XI of the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code [11. Figure 9 shows this same data set, together with earlier data for...0969, NRL Memo- randum Report 4063, Sep. 1979. 11. Section XI - ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code , Rules for Inservice Inspection of Nuclear

The Role of Non-Formal Education in Combating the HIV Epidemic in the Philippines and Taiwan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morisky, Donald E.; Lyu, Shu-Yu; Urada, Lianne A.

2009-01-01

The Philippines is experiencing a low but slowly growing prevalence of HIV, with a UN estimate of 6,000-11,000 cases out of a population of 91 million, and a 150% increase in new cases in 2008 compared to previous years. Earlier education programmes employed non-formal educational training techniques in the southern Philippines to target high-risk…

Necromass in undisturbed and logged forests in the Brazilian Amazon.

Treesearch

Michael Palace; Michael Keller; Gregory P. Asner; Jose Natalino M. Silva; Carlos Passos

2007-01-01

Necromass is an important stock of carbon in tropical forests. We estimated volume, density, and mass of fallen and standing necromass in undisturbed and selectively logged forests at Juruena, Mato Grosso, Brazil (10.488S, 58.478W). We also measured standing dead trees at the Tapajos National Forest, Para, Brazil (3.088S, 54.948W) complementing our earlier study there...

Scientific and Technical Personnel in Industry, 1960

DTIC Science & Technology

1960-01-01

calculated on the bass ofunmromded research and development. fgrsadteeoemynot correspond exactly with those ludicated by the Sujec to a standard...second type, designated as secondary esti- As a result of all the exclusions described above, mates, were components of the primary estimates. a... design , beginning with the 1959 survey. A earlier ones conducted by the Bureau of Labor fairly detailed two-way breakdown of scientific Statistics for

First-Order System Least Squares for the Stokes Equations, with Application to Linear Elasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cai, Z.; Manteuffel, T. A.; McCormick, S. F.

1996-01-01

Following our earlier work on general second-order scalar equations, here we develop a least-squares functional for the two- and three-dimensional Stokes equations, generalized slightly by allowing a pressure term in the continuity equation. By introducing a velocity flux variable and associated curl and trace equations, we are able to establish ellipticity in an H(exp 1) product norm appropriately weighted by the Reynolds number. This immediately yields optimal discretization error estimates for finite element spaces in this norm and optimal algebraic convergence estimates for multiplicative and additive multigrid methods applied to the resulting discrete systems. Both estimates are uniform in the Reynolds number. Moreover, our pressure-perturbed form of the generalized Stokes equations allows us to develop an analogous result for the Dirichlet problem for linear elasticity with estimates that are uniform in the Lame constants.

On the influence of latency estimation on dynamic group communication using overlays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vik, Knut-Helge; Griwodz, Carsten; Halvorsen, Pål

2009-01-01

Distributed interactive applications tend to have stringent latency requirements and some may have high bandwidth demands. Many of them have also very dynamic user groups for which all-to-all communication is needed. In online multiplayer games, for example, such groups are determined through region-of-interest management in the application. We have investigated a variety of group management approaches for overlay networks in earlier work and shown that several useful tree heuristics exist. However, these heuristics require full knowledge of all overlay link latencies. Since this is not scalable, we investigate the effects that latency estimation techqniues have ton the quality of overlay tree constructions. We do this by evaluating one example of our group management approaches in Planetlab and examing how latency estimation techqniues influence their quality. Specifically, we investigate how two well-known latency estimation techniques, Vivaldi and Netvigator, affect the quality of tree building.

Factors Influencing the Formation of Corrosive Conditions in Puget Sound and the Extreme Conditions Observed During Summer 2015 Associated with the NE Pacific Warm Anomaly (a.k.a. The Blob)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alin, S. R.; Curry, B.; Newton, J.; Feely, R. A.; Sutton, A.

2016-02-01

Puget Sound is a complex glacial estuarine system that receives input from many rivers and streams, in addition to runoff from the urban and agricultural environments surrounding the southern part of the Salish Sea ecosystem. A series of glacial sills restrict estuarine circulation such that intrusions of seawater only occur episodically, resulting in long residence times in some parts of the basin. Through survey cruises and stationary time-series, we have observed the dynamic biogeochemical cycles in various sub-basins of Puget Sound since 2008. Areas of Puget Sound with restricted circulation may experience conditions of high pCO2, low pH, and low aragonite saturation state throughout the year. Historically, the highest pCO2 and lowest pH and aragonite saturation states have been observed in early fall in Hood Canal. Upwelling of dense, nutrient- and CO2-rich but oxygen-poor water along the coast provides the marine source water for Puget Sound's deep waters. We estimate that marine waters entering Puget Sound via the Strait of Juan de Fuca are now corrosive 95% of the time, representing a 26% increase in frequency since the preindustrial era. Both river inputs and intense primary production in surface waters drive remineralization in deep waters of Puget Sound basins, contributing to the formation of corrosive conditions in waters below the productive surface. In addition, we estimate that regionally enhanced atmospheric CO2 content may result in an increase in CO2 uptake in the region. In 2015 many features of the seasonal carbon cycle were accelerated relative to earlier years, as a result of the influence of the NE Pacific warm anomaly. In southern Hood Canal, the surface spring bloom began weeks earlier than usual, and in July, we saw the lowest estimated pH and aragonite saturation values in deep waters observed to date in Washington marine environments, which was about two months earlier than historical seasonal minima in pH and aragonite saturation.

Inferences about nested subsets structure when not all species are detected

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cam, E.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

2000-01-01

Comparisons of species composition among ecological communities of different size have often provided evidence that the species in communities with lower species richness form nested subsets of the species in larger communities. In the vast majority of studies, the question of nested subsets has been addressed using information on presence-absence, where a '0' is interpreted as the absence of a given species from a given location. Most of the methodological discussion in earlier studies investigating nestedness concerns the approach to generation of model-based matrices. However, it is most likely that in many situations investigators cannot detect all the species present in the location sampled. The possibility that zeros in incidence matrices reflect nondetection rather than absence of species has not been considered in studies addressing nested subsets, even though the position of zeros in these matrices forms the basis of earlier inference methods. These sampling artifacts are likely to lead to erroneous conclusions about both variation over space in species richness and the degree of similarity of the various locations. Here we propose an approach to investigation of nestedness, based on statistical inference methods explicitly incorporating species detection probability, that take into account the probabilistic nature of the sampling process. We use presence-absence data collected under Pollock?s robust capture-recapture design, and resort to an estimator of species richness originally developed for closed populations to assess the proportion of species shared by different locations. We develop testable predictions corresponding to the null hypothesis of a nonnested pattern, and an alternative hypothesis of perfect nestedness. We also present an index for assessing the degree of nestedness of a system of ecological communities. We illustrate our approach using avian data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey collected in Florida Keys.