Sample Based Unit Liter Dose Estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

JENSEN, L.

The Tank Waste Characterization Program has taken many core samples, grab samples, and auger samples from the single-shell and double-shell tanks during the past 10 years. Consequently, the amount of sample data available has increased, both in terms of quantity of sample results and the number of tanks characterized. More and better data is available than when the current radiological and toxicological source terms used in the Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) (FDH 1999a) and the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) (FDH 1999b) were developed. The Nuclear Safety and Licensing (NS and L) organization wants to use the new datamore » to upgrade the radiological and toxicological source terms used in the BIO and FSAR. The NS and L organization requested assistance in producing a statistically based process for developing the source terms. This report describes the statistical techniques used and the assumptions made to support the development of a new radiological source term for liquid and solid wastes stored in single-shell and double-shell tanks. The results given in this report are a revision to similar results given in an earlier version of the document (Jensen and Wilmarth 1999). The main difference between the results in this document and the earlier version is that the dose conversion factors (DCF) for converting {mu}Ci/g or {mu}Ci/L to Sv/L (sieverts per liter) have changed. There are now two DCFs, one based on ICRP-68 and one based on ICW-71 (Brevick 2000).« less

Perceptual sensitivity to spectral properties of earlier sounds during speech categorization.

PubMed

Stilp, Christian E; Assgari, Ashley A

2018-02-28

Speech perception is heavily influenced by surrounding sounds. When spectral properties differ between earlier (context) and later (target) sounds, this can produce spectral contrast effects (SCEs) that bias perception of later sounds. For example, when context sounds have more energy in low-F 1 frequency regions, listeners report more high-F 1 responses to a target vowel, and vice versa. SCEs have been reported using various approaches for a wide range of stimuli, but most often, large spectral peaks were added to the context to bias speech categorization. This obscures the lower limit of perceptual sensitivity to spectral properties of earlier sounds, i.e., when SCEs begin to bias speech categorization. Listeners categorized vowels (/ɪ/-/ɛ/, Experiment 1) or consonants (/d/-/g/, Experiment 2) following a context sentence with little spectral amplification (+1 to +4 dB) in frequency regions known to produce SCEs. In both experiments, +3 and +4 dB amplification in key frequency regions of the context produced SCEs, but lesser amplification was insufficient to bias performance. This establishes a lower limit of perceptual sensitivity where spectral differences across sounds can bias subsequent speech categorization. These results are consistent with proposed adaptation-based mechanisms that potentially underlie SCEs in auditory perception. Recent sounds can change what speech sounds we hear later. This can occur when the average frequency composition of earlier sounds differs from that of later sounds, biasing how they are perceived. These "spectral contrast effects" are widely observed when sounds' frequency compositions differ substantially. We reveal the lower limit of these effects, as +3 dB amplification of key frequency regions in earlier sounds was enough to bias categorization of the following vowel or consonant sound. Speech categorization being biased by very small spectral differences across sounds suggests that spectral contrast effects occur

Growth status and estimated growth rate of youth football players: a community-based study.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Morano, Peter J; Barron, Mary; Miller, Susan J; Cumming, Sean P

2005-05-01

To characterize the growth status of participants in community-sponsored youth football programs and to estimate rates of growth in height and weight. Mixed-longitudinal over 2 seasons. Two communities in central Michigan. Members of 33 youth football teams in 2 central Michigan communities in the 2000 and 2001 seasons (Mid-Michigan PONY Football League). Height and weight of all participants were measured prior to each season, 327 in 2000 and 326 in 2001 (n = 653). The body mass index (kg/m) was calculated. Heights and weights did not differ from season to season and between the communities; the data were pooled and treated cross-sectionally. Increments of growth in height and weight were estimated for 166 boys with 2 measurements approximately 1 year apart to provide an estimate of growth rate. Growth status (size-attained) of youth football players relative to reference data (CDC) for American boys and estimated growth rate relative to reference values from 2 longitudinal studies of American boys. Median heights of youth football players approximate the 75th percentiles, while median weights approximate the 75th percentiles through 11 years and then drift toward the 90th percentiles of the reference. Median body mass indexes of youth football players fluctuate about the 85th percentiles of the reference. Estimated growth rates in height approximate the reference and may suggest earlier maturation, while estimated growth rates in weight exceed the reference. Youth football players are taller and especially heavier than reference values for American boys. Estimated rates of growth in height approximate medians for American boys and suggest earlier maturation. Estimated rates of growth in weight exceed those of the reference and may place many youth football players at risk for overweight/obesity, which in turn may be a risk factor for injury.

Observations-based GPP estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joiner, J.; Yoshida, Y.; Jung, M.; Tucker, C. J.; Pinzon, J. E.

2017-12-01

We have developed global estimates of gross primary production based on a relatively simple satellite observations-based approach using reflectance data from the MODIS instruments in the form of vegetation indices that provide information about photosynthetic capacity at both high temporal and spatial resolution and combined with information from chlorophyll solar-induced fluorescence from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 instrument that is noisier and available only at lower temporal and spatial scales. We compare our gross primary production estimates with those from eddy covariance flux towers and show that they are competitive with more complicated extrapolated machine learning gross primary production products. Our results provide insight into the amount of variance in gross primary production that can be explained with satellite observations data and also show how processing of the satellite reflectance data is key to using it for accurate GPP estimates.

Earlier surgical intervention in congenital heart disease results in better outcome and resource utilization.

PubMed

Panni, Roheena Z; Ashfaq, Awais; Amanullah, Muhammad M

2011-12-29

Congenital heart disease (CHD) accounts for a major proportion of disease in the pediatric age group. The objective of the study was to estimate the cost of illness associated with CHD pre, intra and postoperatively; among patients referred to a tertiary care hospital in Karachi, Pakistan. This is the first study conducted to estimate the cost of managing CHD in Pakistan. A prevalence based cost of illness study design was used to estimate the cost of cardiac surgery (corrective & palliative) for congenital heart defects in children ≤ 5 years of age from June 2006 to June 2009. A total of 120 patients were enrolled after obtaining an informed consent and the data was collected using a pre-tested questionnaire. The mean age at the time of surgery in group A (1-12 mo age) was 6.08 ± 2.80 months and in group B (1-5 yrs) was 37.10 ± 19.94 months. The cost of surgical admission was found to be significantly higher in the older group, p = 0.001. The total number and cost of post-operative outpatient visits was also higher in group B, p = 0.003. Pre and post operative hospital admissions were not found to be significantly different among the two groups, p = 0.166 and 0.627, respectively. The number of complications were found to be different between the two groups (p = 0.019). Majority of these were contributed by hemorrhage and post-operative seizures. This study concluded that significant expenditure is incurred by people with CHD; with the implication that resources could be saved by earlier detection and awareness campaigns.

Small-mammal density estimation: A field comparison of grid-based vs. web-based density estimators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parmenter, R.R.; Yates, Terry L.; Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, K.P.; Dunnum, J.L.; Franklin, A.B.; Friggens, M.T.; Lubow, B.C.; Miller, M.; Olson, G.S.; Parmenter, Cheryl A.; Pollard, J.; Rexstad, E.; Shenk, T.M.; Stanley, T.R.; White, Gary C.

2003-01-01

��blind” test allowed us to evaluate the influence of expertise and experience in calculating density estimates in comparison to simply using default values in programs CAPTURE and DISTANCE. While the rodent sample sizes were considerably smaller than the recommended minimum for good model results, we found that several models performed well empirically, including the web-based uniform and half-normal models in program DISTANCE, and the grid-based models Mb and Mbh in program CAPTURE (with AÌ‚ adjusted by species-specific full mean maximum distance moved (MMDM) values). These models produced accurate DÌ‚ values (with 95% confidence intervals that included the true D values) and exhibited acceptable bias but poor precision. However, in linear regression analyses comparing each model's DÌ‚ values to the true D values over the range of observed test densities, only the web-based uniform model exhibited a regression slope near 1.0; all other models showed substantial slope deviations, indicating biased estimates at higher or lower density values. In addition, the grid-based DÌ‚ analyses using full MMDM values for WÌ‚ area adjustments required a number of theoretical assumptions of uncertain validity, and we therefore viewed their empirical successes with caution. Finally, density estimates from the independent analysts were highly variable, but estimates from web-based approaches had smaller mean square errors and better achieved confidence-interval coverage of D than did grid-based approaches. Our results support the contention that web-based approaches for density estimation of small-mammal populations are both theoretically and empirically superior to grid-based approaches, even when sample size is far less than often recommended. In view of the increasing need for standardized environmental measures for comparisons among ecosystems and through time, analytical models based on distance sampling appear to offer accurate density estimation approaches for research

The evaluation of clinical and cost outcomes associated with earlier initiation of insulin in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Smolen, Harry J; Murphy, Daniel R; Gahn, James C; Yu, Xueting; Curtis, Bradley H

2014-09-01

The treatment for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) follows a stepwise progression. As a treatment loses its effectiveness, it is typically replaced with a more complex and frequently more costly treatment. Eventually this progression leads to the use of basal insulin typically with concomitant treatments (e.g., metformin, a GLP-1 RA [glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist], a TZD [thiazolidinedione] or a DPP-4i [dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor]) and, ultimately, to basal-bolus insulin in some forms. As the cost of oral antidiabetics (OADs) and noninsulin injectables have approached, and in some cases exceeded, the cost of insulin, we reexamined the placement of insulin in T2DM treatment progression. Our hypothesis was that earlier use of insulin produces clinical and cost benefits due to its superior efficacy and treatment scalability at an acceptable cost when considered over a 5-year period. To (a) estimate clinical and payer cost outcomes of initiating insulin treatment for patients with T2DM earlier in their treatment progression and (b) estimate clinical and payer cost outcomes resulting from delays in escalating treatment for T2DM when indicated by patient hemoglobin A1c levels. We developed a Monte Carlo microsimulation model to estimate patients reaching target A1c, diabetes-related complications, mortality, and associated costs under various treatment strategies for newly diagnosed patients with T2DM. Treatment efficacies were modeled from results of randomized clinical trials, including the time and rate of A1c drift. A typical treatment progression was selected based on the American Diabetes Association and the European Association for the Study of Diabetes guidelines as the standard of care (SOC). Two treatment approaches were evaluated: two-stage insulin (basal plus antidiabetics followed by biphasic plus metformin) and single-stage insulin (biphasic plus metformin). For each approach, we analyzed multiple strategies. For each analysis

Traumatic brain injury history is associated with an earlier age of dementia onset in autopsy-confirmed Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Schaffert, Jeff; LoBue, Christian; White, Charles L; Chiang, Hsueh-Sheng; Didehbani, Nyaz; Lacritz, Laura; Rossetti, Heidi; Dieppa, Marisara; Hart, John; Cullum, C Munro

2018-05-01

To evaluate whether a history of traumatic brain injury (TBI) with reported loss of consciousness (LOC) is a risk factor for earlier onset of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in an autopsy-confirmed sample. Data from 2,133 participants with autopsy-confirmed AD (i.e., at least Braak neurofibrillary tangle stages III to VI and CERAD neuritic plaque score moderate to frequent) were obtained from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC). Participants were categorized by presence/absence of self-reported remote (i.e., >1 year prior to their first Alzheimer's Disease Center visit) history of TBI with LOC (TBI+ vs. TBI-). Analyses of Covariance (ANCOVA) controlling for sex, education, and race compared groups on clinician-estimated age of symptom onset and age of diagnosis. Average age of onset was 2.34 years earlier (p = .01) for the TBI+ group (n = 194) versus the TBI- group (n = 1900). Dementia was diagnosed on average 2.83 years earlier (p = .002) in the TBI+ group (n = 197) versus the TBI- group (n = 1936). Using more stringent neuropathological criteria (i.e., Braak stages V-VI and CERAD frequent), both age of AD onset and diagnosis were 3.6 years earlier in the TBI+ group (both p's < .001). History of TBI with reported LOC appears to be a risk factor for earlier AD onset. This is the first study to use autopsy-confirmed cases, supporting previous investigations that used clinical criteria for the diagnosis of AD. Further investigation as to possible underlying mechanisms of association is needed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Selection of children to provide care: the effect of earlier parental transfers.

PubMed

Henretta, J C; Hill, M S; Li, W; Soldo, B J; Wolf, D A

1997-05-01

We use the first wave of data from the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) study to examine the effects of past parent-to-child financial transfers on selection of a child to provide assistance with basic personal care for unmarried parents. We estimate a fixed-effects conditional logit model and find a positive and significant association between past financial transfers and a child's current helping behavior. The coefficient of past financial transfers is in the direction hypothesized, and its magnitude is 80% as large as that of gender, a well-documented powerful predictor of parental caregiving. There appears to be substantial evidence that earlier parent-to-child financial gifts play a role in determining which child in the family will provide assistance.

View Estimation Based on Value System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Yasutake; Shimada, Kouki; Asada, Minoru

Estimation of a caregiver's view is one of the most important capabilities for a child to understand the behavior demonstrated by the caregiver, that is, to infer the intention of behavior and/or to learn the observed behavior efficiently. We hypothesize that the child develops this ability in the same way as behavior learning motivated by an intrinsic reward, that is, he/she updates the model of the estimated view of his/her own during the behavior imitated from the observation of the behavior demonstrated by the caregiver based on minimizing the estimation error of the reward during the behavior. From this view, this paper shows a method for acquiring such a capability based on a value system from which values can be obtained by reinforcement learning. The parameters of the view estimation are updated based on the temporal difference error (hereafter TD error: estimation error of the state value), analogous to the way such that the parameters of the state value of the behavior are updated based on the TD error. Experiments with simple humanoid robots show the validity of the method, and the developmental process parallel to young children's estimation of its own view during the imitation of the observed behavior of the caregiver is discussed.

Spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristoufek, Ladislav

2014-12-01

We discuss two alternate spectrum-based estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent in the power-law cross-correlations setting, the cross-periodogram and local X -Whittle estimators, as generalizations of their univariate counterparts. As the spectrum-based estimators are dependent on a part of the spectrum taken into consideration during estimation, a simulation study showing performance of the estimators under varying bandwidth parameter as well as correlation between processes and their specification is provided as well. These estimators are less biased than the already existent averaged periodogram estimator, which, however, has slightly lower variance. The spectrum-based estimators can serve as a good complement to the popular time domain estimators.

A vantage from space can detect earlier drought onset: an approach using relative humidity.

PubMed

Farahmand, Alireza; AghaKouchak, Amir; Teixeira, Joao

2015-02-25

Each year, droughts cause significant economic and agricultural losses across the world. The early warning and onset detection of drought is of particular importance for effective agriculture and water resource management. Previous studies show that the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), a measure of precipitation deficit, detects drought onset earlier than other indicators. Here we show that satellite-based near surface air relative humidity data can further improve drought onset detection and early warning. This paper introduces the Standardized Relative Humidity Index (SRHI) based on the NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations. The results indicate that the SRHI typically detects the drought onset earlier than the SPI. While the AIRS mission was not originally designed for drought monitoring, we show that its relative humidity data offers a new and unique avenue for drought monitoring and early warning. We conclude that the early warning aspects of SRHI may have merit for integration into current drought monitoring systems.

A Vantage from Space Can Detect Earlier Drought Onset: An Approach Using Relative Humidity

PubMed Central

Farahmand, Alireza; AghaKouchak, Amir; Teixeira, Joao

2015-01-01

Each year, droughts cause significant economic and agricultural losses across the world. The early warning and onset detection of drought is of particular importance for effective agriculture and water resource management. Previous studies show that the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), a measure of precipitation deficit, detects drought onset earlier than other indicators. Here we show that satellite-based near surface air relative humidity data can further improve drought onset detection and early warning. This paper introduces the Standardized Relative Humidity Index (SRHI) based on the NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations. The results indicate that the SRHI typically detects the drought onset earlier than the SPI. While the AIRS mission was not originally designed for drought monitoring, we show that its relative humidity data offers a new and unique avenue for drought monitoring and early warning. We conclude that the early warning aspects of SRHI may have merit for integration into current drought monitoring systems. PMID:25711500

Identified research directions for using manufacturing knowledge earlier in the product lifecycle

PubMed Central

Hedberg, Thomas D.; Hartman, Nathan W.; Rosche, Phil; Fischer, Kevin

2016-01-01

Design for Manufacturing (DFM), especially the use of manufacturing knowledge to support design decisions, has received attention in the academic domain. However, industry practice has not been studied enough to provide solutions that are mature for industry. The current state of the art for DFM is often rule-based functionality within Computer-Aided Design (CAD) systems that enforce specific design requirements. That rule-based functionality may or may not dynamically affect geometry definition. And, if rule-based functionality exists in the CAD system, it is typically a customization on a case-by-case basis. Manufacturing knowledge is a phrase with vast meanings, which may include knowledge on the effects of material properties decisions, machine and process capabilities, or understanding the unintended consequences of design decisions on manufacturing. One of the DFM questions to answer is how can manufacturing knowledge, depending on its definition, be used earlier in the product lifecycle to enable a more collaborative development environment? This paper will discuss the results of a workshop on manufacturing knowledge that highlights several research questions needing more study. This paper proposes recommendations for investigating the relationship of manufacturing knowledge with shape, behavior, and context characteristics of product to produce a better understanding of what knowledge is most important. In addition, the proposal includes recommendations for investigating the system-level barriers to reusing manufacturing knowledge and how model-based manufacturing may ease the burden of knowledge sharing. Lastly, the proposal addresses the direction of future research for holistic solutions of using manufacturing knowledge earlier in the product lifecycle. PMID:27990027

Identified research directions for using manufacturing knowledge earlier in the product lifecycle.

PubMed

Hedberg, Thomas D; Hartman, Nathan W; Rosche, Phil; Fischer, Kevin

2017-01-01

Design for Manufacturing (DFM), especially the use of manufacturing knowledge to support design decisions, has received attention in the academic domain. However, industry practice has not been studied enough to provide solutions that are mature for industry. The current state of the art for DFM is often rule-based functionality within Computer-Aided Design (CAD) systems that enforce specific design requirements. That rule-based functionality may or may not dynamically affect geometry definition. And, if rule-based functionality exists in the CAD system, it is typically a customization on a case-by-case basis. Manufacturing knowledge is a phrase with vast meanings, which may include knowledge on the effects of material properties decisions, machine and process capabilities, or understanding the unintended consequences of design decisions on manufacturing. One of the DFM questions to answer is how can manufacturing knowledge, depending on its definition, be used earlier in the product lifecycle to enable a more collaborative development environment? This paper will discuss the results of a workshop on manufacturing knowledge that highlights several research questions needing more study. This paper proposes recommendations for investigating the relationship of manufacturing knowledge with shape, behavior, and context characteristics of product to produce a better understanding of what knowledge is most important. In addition, the proposal includes recommendations for investigating the system-level barriers to reusing manufacturing knowledge and how model-based manufacturing may ease the burden of knowledge sharing. Lastly, the proposal addresses the direction of future research for holistic solutions of using manufacturing knowledge earlier in the product lifecycle.

Measuring Housework Participation: The Gap between "Stylised" Questionnaire Estimates and Diary-Based Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kan, Man Yee

2008-01-01

This article compares stylised (questionnaire-based) estimates and diary-based estimates of housework time collected from the same respondents. Data come from the Home On-line Study (1999-2001), a British national household survey that contains both types of estimates (sample size = 632 men and 666 women). It shows that the gap between the two…

Compulsive Buying: Earlier Illicit Drug Use, Impulse Buying, Depression, and Adult ADHD Symptoms

PubMed Central

Brook, Judith S.; Zhang, Chenshu; Brook, David W.; Leukefeld, Carl G.

2015-01-01

This longitudinal study examined the association between psychosocial antecedents, including illicit drug use, and adult compulsive buying (CB) across a 29-year time period from mean age 14 to mean age 43. Participants originally came from a community-based random sample of residents in two upstate New York counties. Multivariate linear regression analysis was used to study the relationship between the participant’s earlier psychosocial antecedents and adult CB in the fifth decade of life. The results of the multivariate linear regression analyses showed that gender (female), earlier adult impulse buying (IB), depressive mood, illicit drug use, and concurrent ADHD symptoms were all significantly associated with adult CB at mean age 43. It is important that clinicians treating CB in adults should consider the role of drug use, symptoms of ADHD, IB, depression, and family factors in CB. PMID:26165963

Combined circulating tumor DNA and protein biomarker-based liquid biopsy for the earlier detection of pancreatic cancers.

PubMed

Cohen, Joshua D; Javed, Ammar A; Thoburn, Christopher; Wong, Fay; Tie, Jeanne; Gibbs, Peter; Schmidt, C Max; Yip-Schneider, Michele T; Allen, Peter J; Schattner, Mark; Brand, Randall E; Singhi, Aatur D; Petersen, Gloria M; Hong, Seung-Mo; Kim, Song Cheol; Falconi, Massimo; Doglioni, Claudio; Weiss, Matthew J; Ahuja, Nita; He, Jin; Makary, Martin A; Maitra, Anirban; Hanash, Samir M; Dal Molin, Marco; Wang, Yuxuan; Li, Lu; Ptak, Janine; Dobbyn, Lisa; Schaefer, Joy; Silliman, Natalie; Popoli, Maria; Goggins, Michael G; Hruban, Ralph H; Wolfgang, Christopher L; Klein, Alison P; Tomasetti, Cristian; Papadopoulos, Nickolas; Kinzler, Kenneth W; Vogelstein, Bert; Lennon, Anne Marie

2017-09-19

The earlier diagnosis of cancer is one of the keys to reducing cancer deaths in the future. Here we describe our efforts to develop a noninvasive blood test for the detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. We combined blood tests for KRAS gene mutations with carefully thresholded protein biomarkers to determine whether the combination of these markers was superior to any single marker. The cohort tested included 221 patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas and 182 control patients without known cancer. KRAS mutations were detected in the plasma of 66 patients (30%), and every mutation found in the plasma was identical to that subsequently found in the patient's primary tumor (100% concordance). The use of KRAS in conjunction with four thresholded protein biomarkers increased the sensitivity to 64%. Only one of the 182 plasma samples from the control cohort was positive for any of the DNA or protein biomarkers (99.5% specificity). This combinatorial approach may prove useful for the earlier detection of many cancer types.

Entropy-based adaptive attitude estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiani, Maryam; Barzegar, Aylin; Pourtakdoust, Seid H.

2018-03-01

Gaussian approximation filters have increasingly been developed to enhance the accuracy of attitude estimation in space missions. The effective employment of these algorithms demands accurate knowledge of system dynamics and measurement models, as well as their noise characteristics, which are usually unavailable or unreliable. An innovation-based adaptive filtering approach has been adopted as a solution to this problem; however, it exhibits two major challenges, namely appropriate window size selection and guaranteed assurance of positive definiteness for the estimated noise covariance matrices. The current work presents two novel techniques based on relative entropy and confidence level concepts in order to address the abovementioned drawbacks. The proposed adaptation techniques are applied to two nonlinear state estimation algorithms of the extended Kalman filter and cubature Kalman filter for attitude estimation of a low earth orbit satellite equipped with three-axis magnetometers and Sun sensors. The effectiveness of the proposed adaptation scheme is demonstrated by means of comprehensive sensitivity analysis on the system and environmental parameters by using extensive independent Monte Carlo simulations.

A matlab framework for estimation of NLME models using stochastic differential equations: applications for estimation of insulin secretion rates.

PubMed

Mortensen, Stig B; Klim, Søren; Dammann, Bernd; Kristensen, Niels R; Madsen, Henrik; Overgaard, Rune V

2007-10-01

The non-linear mixed-effects model based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provides an attractive residual error model, that is able to handle serially correlated residuals typically arising from structural mis-specification of the true underlying model. The use of SDEs also opens up for new tools for model development and easily allows for tracking of unknown inputs and parameters over time. An algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of the model has earlier been proposed, and the present paper presents the first general implementation of this algorithm. The implementation is done in Matlab and also demonstrates the use of parallel computing for improved estimation times. The use of the implementation is illustrated by two examples of application which focus on the ability of the model to estimate unknown inputs facilitated by the extension to SDEs. The first application is a deconvolution-type estimation of the insulin secretion rate based on a linear two-compartment model for C-peptide measurements. In the second application the model is extended to also give an estimate of the time varying liver extraction based on both C-peptide and insulin measurements.

Compulsive buying: Earlier illicit drug use, impulse buying, depression, and adult ADHD symptoms.

PubMed

Brook, Judith S; Zhang, Chenshu; Brook, David W; Leukefeld, Carl G

2015-08-30

This longitudinal study examined the association between psychosocial antecedents, including illicit drug use, and adult compulsive buying (CB) across a 29-year time period from mean age 14 to mean age 43. Participants originally came from a community-based random sample of residents in two upstate New York counties. Multivariate linear regression analysis was used to study the relationship between the participant's earlier psychosocial antecedents and adult CB in the fifth decade of life. The results of the multivariate linear regression analyses showed that gender (female), earlier adult impulse buying (IB), depressive mood, illicit drug use, and concurrent ADHD symptoms were all significantly associated with adult CB at mean age 43. It is important that clinicians treating CB in adults should consider the role of drug use, symptoms of ADHD, IB, depression, and family factors in CB. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Facilitating earlier transfer of care from acute stroke services into the community.

PubMed

Robinson, Jennifer

This article outlines an initiative to reduce length of stay for stroke patients within an acute hospital and to facilitate earlier transfer of care. Existing care provision was remodelled and expanded to deliver stroke care to patients within a community bed-based intermediate care facility or intermediate care at home. This new model of care has improved the delivery of rehabilitation through alternative and innovative ways of addressing service delivery that meet the needs of the patients.

Earlier Mother's Age at Menarche Predicts Rapid Infancy Growth and Childhood Obesity

PubMed Central

Ong, Ken K; Northstone, Kate; Wells, Jonathan CK; Rubin, Carol; Ness, Andy R; Golding, Jean; Dunger, David B

2007-01-01

Background Early menarche tends to be preceded by rapid infancy weight gain and is associated with increased childhood and adult obesity risk. As age at menarche is a heritable trait, we hypothesised that age at menarche in the mother may in turn predict her children's early growth and obesity risk. Methods and Findings We tested associations between mother's age at menarche, mother's adult body size and obesity risk, and her children's growth and obesity risk in 6,009 children from the UK population-based Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort who had growth and fat mass at age 9 y measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. A subgroup of 914 children also had detailed infancy and childhood growth data. In the mothers, earlier menarche was associated with shorter adult height (by 0.64 cm/y), increased weight (0.92 kg/y), and body mass index (BMI, 0.51 kg/m2/y; all p < 0.001). In contrast, in her children, earlier mother's menarche predicted taller height at 9 y (by 0.41 cm/y) and greater weight (0.80 kg/y), BMI (0.29 kg/m2/y), and fat mass index (0.22 kg/m2/year; all p < 0.001). Children in the earliest mother's menarche quintile (≤11 y) were more obese than the oldest quintile (≥15 y) (OR, 2.15, 95% CI 1.46 to 3.17; p < 0.001, adjusted for mother's education and BMI). In the subgroup, children in the earliest quintile showed faster gains in weight (p < 0.001) and height (p < 0.001) only from birth to 2 y, but not from 2 to 9 y (p = 0.3–0.8). Conclusions Earlier age at menarche may be a transgenerational marker of a faster growth tempo, characterised by rapid weight gain and growth, particularly during infancy, and leading to taller childhood stature, but likely earlier maturation and therefore shorter adult stature. This growth pattern confers increased childhood and adult obesity risks. PMID:17455989

History of the recommended atomic-weight values from 1882 to 1997: A comparision of differences from current values to the estimated uncertainties of earlier values.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coplen, T.B.; Peiser, H.S.

1998-01-01

International commissions and national committees for atomic weights (mean relative atomic masses) have recommended regularly updated, best values for these atomic weights as applicable to terrestrial sources of the chemical elements. Presented here is a historically complete listing starting with the values in F. W. Clarke's 1882 recalculation, followed by the recommended values in the annual reports of the American Chemical Society's Atomic Weights Commission. From 1903, an International Commission published such reports and its values (scaled to an atomic weight of 16 for oxygen) are here used in preference to those of national committees of Britain, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, and the U.S.A. We have, however, made scaling adjustments from Ar(16O) to Ar(12C) where not negligible. From 1920, this International Commission constituted itself under the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC). Since then, IUPAC has published reports (mostly biennially) listing the recommended atomic weights, which are reproduced here. Since 1979, these values have been called the "standard atomic weights" and, since 1969, all values have been published, with their estimated uncertainties. Few of the earlier values were published with uncertainties. Nevertheless, we assessed such uncertainties on the basis of our understanding of the likely contemporary judgement of the values' reliability. While neglecting remaining uncertainties of 1997 values, we derive "differences" and a retrospective index of reliability of atomic-weight values in relation to assessments of uncertainties at the time of their publication. A striking improvement in reliability appears to have been achieved since the commissions have imposed upon themselves the rule of recording estimated uncertainties from all recognized sources of error.

Cuffless Blood Pressure Estimation Based on Data-Oriented Continuous Health Monitoring System

PubMed Central

Kawanaka, Haruki; Oguri, Koji

2017-01-01

Measuring blood pressure continuously helps monitor health and also prevent lifestyle related diseases to extend the expectancy of healthy life. Blood pressure, which is nowadays used for monitoring patient, is one of the most useful indexes for prevention of lifestyle related diseases such as hypertension. However, continuously monitoring the blood pressure is unrealistic because of discomfort caused by the tightening of a cuff belt. We have earlier researched the data-oriented blood pressure estimation without using a cuff. Remarkably, our blood pressure estimation method only uses a photoplethysmograph sensor. Therefore, the application is flexible for sensor locations and measuring situations. In this paper, we describe the implementation of our estimation method, the launch of a cloud system which can collect and manage blood pressure data measured by a wristwatch-type photoplethysmograph sensor, and the construction of our applications to visualize life-log data including the time-series data of blood pressure. PMID:28523074

Combined circulating tumor DNA and protein biomarker-based liquid biopsy for the earlier detection of pancreatic cancers

PubMed Central

Cohen, Joshua D.; Javed, Ammar A.; Thoburn, Christopher; Wong, Fay; Tie, Jeanne; Gibbs, Peter; Schmidt, C. Max; Yip-Schneider, Michele T.; Allen, Peter J.; Schattner, Mark; Brand, Randall E.; Singhi, Aatur D.; Petersen, Gloria M.; Hong, Seung-Mo; Kim, Song Cheol; Falconi, Massimo; Doglioni, Claudio; Weiss, Matthew J.; Ahuja, Nita; He, Jin; Makary, Martin A.; Maitra, Anirban; Hanash, Samir M.; Dal Molin, Marco; Wang, Yuxuan; Li, Lu; Ptak, Janine; Dobbyn, Lisa; Schaefer, Joy; Silliman, Natalie; Popoli, Maria; Goggins, Michael G.; Hruban, Ralph H.; Wolfgang, Christopher L.; Klein, Alison P.; Tomasetti, Cristian; Papadopoulos, Nickolas; Kinzler, Kenneth W.; Vogelstein, Bert; Lennon, Anne Marie

2017-01-01

The earlier diagnosis of cancer is one of the keys to reducing cancer deaths in the future. Here we describe our efforts to develop a noninvasive blood test for the detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. We combined blood tests for KRAS gene mutations with carefully thresholded protein biomarkers to determine whether the combination of these markers was superior to any single marker. The cohort tested included 221 patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas and 182 control patients without known cancer. KRAS mutations were detected in the plasma of 66 patients (30%), and every mutation found in the plasma was identical to that subsequently found in the patient’s primary tumor (100% concordance). The use of KRAS in conjunction with four thresholded protein biomarkers increased the sensitivity to 64%. Only one of the 182 plasma samples from the control cohort was positive for any of the DNA or protein biomarkers (99.5% specificity). This combinatorial approach may prove useful for the earlier detection of many cancer types. PMID:28874546

Estimating the Counterfactual

PubMed Central

Blumberg, Linda J.; Garrett, Bowen; Holahan, John

2016-01-01

Time lags in receiving data from long-standing, large federal surveys complicate real-time estimation of the coverage effects of full Affordable Care Act (ACA) implementation. Fast-turnaround household surveys fill some of the void in data on recent changes to insurance coverage, but they lack the historical data that allow analysts to account for trends that predate the ACA, economic fluctuations, and earlier public program expansions when predicting how many people would be uninsured without comprehensive health care reform. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) from 2000 to 2012 and the Health Reform Monitoring Survey (HRMS) data for 2013 and 2015, this article develops an approach to estimate the number of people who would be uninsured in the absence of the ACA and isolates the change in coverage as of March 2015 that can be attributed to the ACA. We produce counterfactual forecasts of the number of uninsured absent the ACA for 9 age-income groups and compare these estimates with 2015 estimates based on HRMS relative coverage changes applied to CPS-based population estimates. As of March 2015, we find the ACA has reduced the number of uninsured adults by 18.1 million compared with the number who would have been uninsured at that time had the law not been implemented. That decline represents a 46% reduction in the number of nonelderly adults without insurance. The approach developed here can be applied to other federal data and timely surveys to provide a range of estimates of the overall effects of reform. PMID:27076474

Research promises earlier warning for grapevine canker diseases

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

When it comes to detecting and treating vineyards for grapevine canker diseases (also called trunk diseases), like Botryosphaeria dieback (Bot canker), Esca, Eutypa dieback and Phomopsis dieback, the earlier the better, says plant pathologist Kendra Baumgartner, with the USDA’s Agricultural Research...

Earlier Parental Set Bedtimes as a Protective Factor Against Depression and Suicidal Ideation

PubMed Central

Gangwisch, James E.; Babiss, Lindsay A.; Malaspina, Dolores; Turner, J. Blake; Zammit, Gary K.; Posner, Kelly

2010-01-01

Study Objectives: To examine the relationships between parental set bedtimes, sleep duration, and depression as a quasi-experiment to explore the potentially bidirectional relationship between short sleep duration and depression. Short sleep duration has been shown to precede depression, but this could be explained as a prodromal symptom of depression. Depression in an adolescent can affect his/her chosen bedtime, but it is less likely to affect a parent's chosen set bedtime which can establish a relatively stable upper limit that can directly affect sleep duration. Design: Multivariate cross-sectional analyses of the ADD Health using logistic regression. Setting: United States nationally representative, school-based, probability-based sample in 1994-96. Participants: Adolescents (n = 15,659) in grades 7 to 12. Measurements and Results: Adolescents with parental set bedtimes of midnight or later were 24% more likely to suffer from depression (OR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.04-1.49) and 20% more likely to have suicidal ideation (1.20, 1.01-1.41) than adolescents with parental set bedtimes of 10:00 PM or earlier, after controlling for covariates. Consistent with sleep duration and perception of getting enough sleep acting as mediators, the inclusion of these variables in the multivariate models appreciably attenuated the associations for depression (1.07, 0.88-1.30) and suicidal ideation (1.09, 0.92-1.29). Conclusions: The results from this study provide new evidence to strengthen the argument that short sleep duration could play a role in the etiology of depression. Earlier parental set bedtimes could therefore be protective against adolescent depression and suicidal ideation by lengthening sleep duration. Citation: Gangwisch JE; Babiss LA; Malaspina D; Turner JB; Zammit GK; Posner K. Earlier parental set bedtimes as a protective factor against depression and suicidal ideation. SLEEP 2010;33(1):97-106. PMID:20120626

Reducing Older Driver Motor Vehicle Collisions via Earlier Cataract Surgery

PubMed Central

Mennemeyer, Stephen T.; Owsley, Cynthia; McGwin, Gerald

2013-01-01

Older adults who undergo cataract extraction have roughly half the rate of motor vehicle collision (MVC) involvement per mile driven compared to cataract patients who do not elect cataract surgery. Currently in the U.S., most insurers do not allow payment for cataract surgery based upon the findings of a vision exam unless accompanied by an individual’s complaint of visual difficulties that seriously interfere with driving or other daily activities and individuals themselves may be slow or reluctant to complain and seek relief. As a consequence, surgery tends to occur after significant vision problems have emerged. We hypothesize that a proactive policy encouraging cataract surgery earlier for a lesser level of complaint would significantly reduce MVCs among older drivers. We used a Monte Carlo model to simulate the MVC experience of the U.S. population from age 60 to 89 under alternative protocols for the timing of cataract surgery which we call “Current Practice” (CP) and “Earlier Surgery” (ES). Our base model finds, from a societal perspective with undiscounted 2010 dollars, that switching to ES from CP reduces by about 21% the average number of MVCs, fatalities, and MVC cost per person. The net effect on total cost – all MVC costs plus cataract surgery expenditures -- is a reduction of about 16%. Quality Adjusted Life Years would increase by about 5%. From the perspective of payers for healthcare, the switch would increase cataract surgery expenditure for ages 65+ by about 8% and for ages 60 to 64 by about 47% but these expenditures are substantially offset after age 65 by reductions in the medical and emergency services component of MVC cost. Similar results occur with discounting at 3% and with various sensitivity analyses. We conclude that a policy of ES would significantly reduce MVCs and their associated consequences. PMID:23369786

Higher Childhood Red Meat Intake Frequency Is Associated with Earlier Age at Menarche.

PubMed

Jansen, Erica C; Marín, Constanza; Mora-Plazas, Mercedes; Villamor, Eduardo

2016-03-09

Early age at menarche is associated with increased breast cancer risk. Red meat consumption in adolescence predicts breast cancer risk, but it is unknown whether it is also related to earlier menarche. We studied the association between intake of red meat at ages 5-12 y and age at menarche in a prospective study. We assessed usual diets with a food-frequency questionnaire in a group of 456 girls aged 8.4 ± 1.7 y and followed them for a median 5.6 y in Bogotá, Colombia. Girls were asked periodically about the occurrence and date of menarche. Median age at menarche was estimated with use of Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities by categories of red meat intake frequency. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the incidence of menarche by red meat intake frequency, adjusting for potential sociodemographic and dietary confounders including total energy intake and intake frequency of other animal food groups (dairy, poultry, freshwater fish, tuna/sardines, eggs, and innards). Median age at menarche was 12.4 y. After adjustment for total energy intake, maternal parity, and socioeconomic status, red meat intake frequency was inversely associated with age at menarche. When compared with girls with red meat intake <4 times/wk, those consuming it ≥2 times/d had a significantly earlier age at menarche (HR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.11, 2.41; P-trend = 0.0009). Incidentally, we found that girls with tuna/sardine intake >1 time/wk had a significantly later age at menarche (HR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.42, 0.90; P = 0.01) than those with intake <1 time/mo. Intake frequency of other animal food groups was not significantly associated with age at menarche. Higher red meat intake frequency during childhood is associated with an earlier age at menarche, whereas greater fatty fish intake frequency is associated with a later menarcheal age. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Cardiac Complications, Earlier Treatment, and Initial Disease Severity in Kawasaki Disease.

PubMed

Abrams, Joseph Y; Belay, Ermias D; Uehara, Ritei; Maddox, Ryan A; Schonberger, Lawrence B; Nakamura, Yosikazu

2017-09-01

To assess if observed higher observed risks of cardiac complications for patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) treated earlier may reflect bias due to confounding from initial disease severity, as opposed to any negative effect of earlier treatment. We used data from Japanese nationwide KD surveys from 1997 to 2004. Receipt of additional intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) (data available all years) or any additional treatment (available for 2003-2004) were assessed as proxies for initial disease severity. We determined associations between earlier or later IVIG treatment (defined as receipt of IVIG on days 1-4 vs days 5-10 of illness) and cardiac complications by stratifying by receipt of additional treatment or by using logistic modeling to control for the effect of receiving additional treatment. A total of 48 310 patients with KD were included in the analysis. In unadjusted analysis, earlier IVIG treatment was associated with a higher risk for 4 categories of cardiac complications, including all major cardiac complications (risk ratio, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.06-1.15). Stratifying by receipt of additional treatment removed this association, and earlier IVIG treatment became protective against all major cardiac complications when controlling for any additional treatment in logistic regressions (OR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.80-1.00). Observed higher risks of cardiac complications among patients with KD receiving IVIG treatment on days 1-4 of the illness are most likely due to underlying higher initial disease severity, and patients with KD should continue to be treated with IVIG as early as possible. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

2003-01-01

Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

Travelling for earlier surgical treatment: the patient's view.

PubMed Central

Stewart, M; Donaldson, L J

1991-01-01

As part of the northern region's programme within the national waiting list initiative, schemes have been funded to test the feasibility and acceptability of offering patients the opportunity to travel further afield in order to receive earlier treatment. A total of 484 patients experiencing a long wait for routine surgical operations in the northern region were offered the opportunity to receive earlier treatment outside their local health district; 74% of the patients accepted the offer. The initiative was well received by the participating patients and the majority stated that if the need arose on a future occasion they would prefer to travel for treatment rather than have to wait for lengthy periods for treatment at their local hospital. These findings, interpreted in the light of the National Health Service reforms introduced in April 1991, suggest that for some types of care, patients would welcome greater flexibility in the placing of contracts, not merely reinforcement of historical patterns of referral. PMID:1823553

The cortical representation of the speech envelope is earlier for audiovisual speech than audio speech.

PubMed

Crosse, Michael J; Lalor, Edmund C

2014-04-01

Visual speech can greatly enhance a listener's comprehension of auditory speech when they are presented simultaneously. Efforts to determine the neural underpinnings of this phenomenon have been hampered by the limited temporal resolution of hemodynamic imaging and the fact that EEG and magnetoencephalographic data are usually analyzed in response to simple, discrete stimuli. Recent research has shown that neuronal activity in human auditory cortex tracks the envelope of natural speech. Here, we exploit this finding by estimating a linear forward-mapping between the speech envelope and EEG data and show that the latency at which the envelope of natural speech is represented in cortex is shortened by >10 ms when continuous audiovisual speech is presented compared with audio-only speech. In addition, we use a reverse-mapping approach to reconstruct an estimate of the speech stimulus from the EEG data and, by comparing the bimodal estimate with the sum of the unimodal estimates, find no evidence of any nonlinear additive effects in the audiovisual speech condition. These findings point to an underlying mechanism that could account for enhanced comprehension during audiovisual speech. Specifically, we hypothesize that low-level acoustic features that are temporally coherent with the preceding visual stream may be synthesized into a speech object at an earlier latency, which may provide an extended period of low-level processing before extraction of semantic information.

Balancing Score Adjusted Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation

PubMed Central

Lendle, Samuel David; Fireman, Bruce; van der Laan, Mark J.

2015-01-01

Adjusting for a balancing score is sufficient for bias reduction when estimating causal effects including the average treatment effect and effect among the treated. Estimators that adjust for the propensity score in a nonparametric way, such as matching on an estimate of the propensity score, can be consistent when the estimated propensity score is not consistent for the true propensity score but converges to some other balancing score. We call this property the balancing score property, and discuss a class of estimators that have this property. We introduce a targeted minimum loss-based estimator (TMLE) for a treatment-specific mean with the balancing score property that is additionally locally efficient and doubly robust. We investigate the new estimator’s performance relative to other estimators, including another TMLE, a propensity score matching estimator, an inverse probability of treatment weighted estimator, and a regression-based estimator in simulation studies. PMID:26561539

Prescription stimulant use is associated with earlier onset of psychosis.

PubMed

Moran, Lauren V; Masters, Grace A; Pingali, Samira; Cohen, Bruce M; Liebson, Elizabeth; Rajarethinam, R P; Ongur, Dost

2015-12-01

A childhood history of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is common in psychotic disorders, yet prescription stimulants may interact adversely with the physiology of these disorders. Specifically, exposure to stimulants leads to long-term increases in dopamine release. We therefore hypothesized that individuals with psychotic disorders previously exposed to prescription stimulants will have an earlier onset of psychosis. Age of onset of psychosis (AOP) was compared in individuals with and without prior exposure to prescription stimulants while controlling for potential confounding factors. In a sample of 205 patients recruited from an inpatient psychiatric unit, 40% (n = 82) reported use of stimulants prior to the onset of psychosis. Most participants were prescribed stimulants during childhood or adolescence for a diagnosis of ADHD. AOP was significantly earlier in those exposed to stimulants (20.5 vs. 24.6 years stimulants vs. no stimulants, p < 0.001). After controlling for gender, IQ, educational attainment, lifetime history of a cannabis use disorder or other drugs of abuse, and family history of a first-degree relative with psychosis, the association between stimulant exposure and earlier AOP remained significant. There was a significant gender × stimulant interaction with a greater reduction in AOP for females, whereas the smaller effect of stimulant use on AOP in males did not reach statistical significance. In conclusion, individuals with psychotic disorders exposed to prescription stimulants had an earlier onset of psychosis, and this relationship did not appear to be mediated by IQ or cannabis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rule-Based Flight Software Cost Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stukes, Sherry A.; Spagnuolo, John N. Jr.

2015-01-01

This paper discusses the fundamental process for the computation of Flight Software (FSW) cost estimates. This process has been incorporated in a rule-based expert system [1] that can be used for Independent Cost Estimates (ICEs), Proposals, and for the validation of Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) submissions. A high-level directed graph (referred to here as a decision graph) illustrates the steps taken in the production of these estimated costs and serves as a basis of design for the expert system described in this paper. Detailed discussions are subsequently given elaborating upon the methodology, tools, charts, and caveats related to the various nodes of the graph. We present general principles for the estimation of FSW using SEER-SEM as an illustration of these principles when appropriate. Since Source Lines of Code (SLOC) is a major cost driver, a discussion of various SLOC data sources for the preparation of the estimates is given together with an explanation of how contractor SLOC estimates compare with the SLOC estimates used by JPL. Obtaining consistency in code counting will be presented as well as factors used in reconciling SLOC estimates from different code counters. When sufficient data is obtained, a mapping into the JPL Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) from the SEER-SEM output is illustrated. For across the board FSW estimates, as was done for the NASA Discovery Mission proposal estimates performed at JPL, a comparative high-level summary sheet for all missions with the SLOC, data description, brief mission description and the most relevant SEER-SEM parameter values is given to illustrate an encapsulation of the used and calculated data involved in the estimates. The rule-based expert system described provides the user with inputs useful or sufficient to run generic cost estimation programs. This system's incarnation is achieved via the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and will be addressed at the end of this paper.

Metamorphosis Is Ancestral for Crown Euarthropods, and Evolved in the Cambrian or Earlier.

PubMed

Wolfe, Joanna M

2017-09-01

Macroevolutionary developmental biology employs fossilized ontogenetic data and phylogenetic comparative methods to probe the evolution of development at ancient nodes. Despite the prevalence of ecologically differentiated larval forms in marine invertebrates, it has been frequently presumed that the ancestors of arthropods were direct developers, and that metamorphosis may not have evolved until the Ordovician or later. Using fossils and new dated phylogenies, I infer that metamorphosis was likely ancestral for crown arthropods, contradicting this assumption. Based on a published morphological dataset encompassing 217 exceptionally preserved fossil and 96 extant taxa, fossils were directly incorporated into both the topology and age estimates, as in "tip dating" analyses. Using data from post-embryonic fossils representing 25 species throughout stem and crown arthropod lineages (as well as most of the 96 extant taxa), characters for metamorphosis were assigned based on inferred ecological changes in development (e.g., changes in habitat and adaptive landscape). Under all phylogenetic hypotheses, metamorphosis was supported as most likely ancestral to both ecdysozoans and euarthropods. Care must be taken to account for potential drastic post-embryonic morphological changes in evolutionary analyses. Many stem group euarthrpods may have had ecologically differentiated larval stages that did not preserve in the fossil record. Moreover, a complex life cycle and planktonic ecology may have evolved in the Ediacaran or earlier, and may have typified the pre-Cambrian explosion "wormworld" prior to the origin of crown group euarthropods. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Estimation of a simple agent-based model of financial markets: An application to Australian stock and foreign exchange data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfarano, Simone; Lux, Thomas; Wagner, Friedrich

2006-10-01

Following Alfarano et al. [Estimation of agent-based models: the case of an asymmetric herding model, Comput. Econ. 26 (2005) 19-49; Excess volatility and herding in an artificial financial market: analytical approach and estimation, in: W. Franz, H. Ramser, M. Stadler (Eds.), Funktionsfähigkeit und Stabilität von Finanzmärkten, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, 2005, pp. 241-254], we consider a simple agent-based model of a highly stylized financial market. The model takes Kirman's ant process [A. Kirman, Epidemics of opinion and speculative bubbles in financial markets, in: M.P. Taylor (Ed.), Money and Financial Markets, Blackwell, Cambridge, 1991, pp. 354-368; A. Kirman, Ants, rationality, and recruitment, Q. J. Econ. 108 (1993) 137-156] of mimetic contagion as its starting point, but allows for asymmetry in the attractiveness of both groups. Embedding the contagion process into a standard asset-pricing framework, and identifying the abstract groups of the herding model as chartists and fundamentalist traders, a market with periodic bubbles and bursts is obtained. Taking stock of the availability of a closed-form solution for the stationary distribution of returns for this model, we can estimate its parameters via maximum likelihood. Expanding our earlier work, this paper presents pertinent estimates for the Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate and the Australian stock market index. As it turns out, our model indicates dominance of fundamentalist behavior in both the stock and foreign exchange market.

High-global warming potential F-gas emissions in California: comparison of ambient-based versus inventory-based emission estimates, and implications of refined estimates.

PubMed

Gallagher, Glenn; Zhan, Tao; Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Gupta, Pamela; Pederson, James; Croes, Bart; Blake, Donald R; Barletta, Barbara; Meinardi, Simone; Ashford, Paul; Vetter, Arnie; Saba, Sabine; Slim, Rayan; Palandre, Lionel; Clodic, Denis; Mathis, Pamela; Wagner, Mark; Forgie, Julia; Dwyer, Harry; Wolf, Katy

2014-01-21

To provide information for greenhouse gas reduction policies, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventories annual emissions of high-global-warming potential (GWP) fluorinated gases, the fastest growing sector of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Baseline 2008 F-gas emissions estimates for selected chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC-22), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a) made with an inventory-based methodology were compared to emissions estimates made by ambient-based measurements. Significant discrepancies were found, with the inventory-based emissions methodology resulting in a systematic 42% under-estimation of CFC-12 emissions from older refrigeration equipment and older vehicles, and a systematic 114% overestimation of emissions for HFC-134a, a refrigerant substitute for phased-out CFCs. Initial, inventory-based estimates for all F-gas emissions had assumed that equipment is no longer in service once it reaches its average lifetime of use. Revised emission estimates using improved models for equipment age at end-of-life, inventories, and leak rates specific to California resulted in F-gas emissions estimates in closer agreement to ambient-based measurements. The discrepancies between inventory-based estimates and ambient-based measurements were reduced from -42% to -6% for CFC-12, and from +114% to +9% for HFC-134a.

Global precipitation estimates based on a technique for combining satellite-based estimates, rain gauge analysis, and NWP model precipitation information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo; Keehn, Peter R.

1995-01-01

The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

Biological consequences of earlier snowmelt from desert dust deposition in alpine landscapes.

PubMed

Steltzer, Heidi; Landry, Chris; Painter, Thomas H; Anderson, Justin; Ayres, Edward

2009-07-14

Dust deposition to mountain snow cover, which has increased since the late 19(th) century, accelerates the rate of snowmelt by increasing the solar radiation absorbed by the snowpack. Snowmelt occurs earlier, but is decoupled from seasonal warming. Climate warming advances the timing of snowmelt and early season phenological events (e.g., the onset of greening and flowering); however, earlier snowmelt without warmer temperatures may have a different effect on phenology. Here, we report the results of a set of snowmelt manipulations in which radiation-absorbing fabric and the addition and removal of dust from the surface of the snowpack advanced or delayed snowmelt in the alpine tundra. These changes in the timing of snowmelt were superimposed on a system where the timing of snowmelt varies with topography and has been affected by increased dust loading. At the community level, phenology exhibited a threshold response to the timing of snowmelt. Greening and flowering were delayed before seasonal warming, after which there was a linear relationship between the date of snowmelt and the timing of phenological events. Consequently, the effects of earlier snowmelt on phenology differed in relation to topography, which resulted in increasing synchronicity in phenology across the alpine landscape with increasingly earlier snowmelt. The consequences of earlier snowmelt from increased dust deposition differ from climate warming and include delayed phenology, leading to synchronized growth and flowering across the landscape and the opportunity for altered species interactions, landscape-scale gene flow via pollination, and nutrient cycling.

Adaptive Window Zero-Crossing-Based Instantaneous Frequency Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekhar, S. Chandra; Sreenivas, TV

2004-12-01

We address the problem of estimating instantaneous frequency (IF) of a real-valued constant amplitude time-varying sinusoid. Estimation of polynomial IF is formulated using the zero-crossings of the signal. We propose an algorithm to estimate nonpolynomial IF by local approximation using a low-order polynomial, over a short segment of the signal. This involves the choice of window length to minimize the mean square error (MSE). The optimal window length found by directly minimizing the MSE is a function of the higher-order derivatives of the IF which are not available a priori. However, an optimum solution is formulated using an adaptive window technique based on the concept of intersection of confidence intervals. The adaptive algorithm enables minimum MSE-IF (MMSE-IF) estimation without requiring a priori information about the IF. Simulation results show that the adaptive window zero-crossing-based IF estimation method is superior to fixed window methods and is also better than adaptive spectrogram and adaptive Wigner-Ville distribution (WVD)-based IF estimators for different signal-to-noise ratio (SNR).

Estimation of flow properties using surface deformation and head data: A trajectory-based approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vasco, D.W.

2004-07-12

A trajectory-based algorithm provides an efficient and robust means to infer flow properties from surface deformation and head data. The algorithm is based upon the concept of an ''arrival time'' of a drawdown front, which is defined as the time corresponding to the maximum slope of the drawdown curve. The technique involves three steps: the inference of head changes as a function of position and time, the use of the estimated head changes to define arrival times, and the inversion of the arrival times for flow properties. Trajectories, computed from the output of a numerical simulator, are used to relatemore » the drawdown arrival times to flow properties. The inversion algorithm is iterative, requiring one reservoir simulation for each iteration. The method is applied to data from a set of 14 tiltmeters, located at the Raymond Quarry field site in California. Using the technique, I am able to image a high-conductivity channel which extends to the south of the pumping well. The presence of th is permeable pathway is supported by an analysis of earlier cross-well transient pressure test data.« less

Family-oriented cardiac risk estimator: a Java web-based applet.

PubMed

Crouch, Michael A; Jadhav, Ashwin

2003-01-01

We developed a Java applet that calculates four different estimates of a person's 10-year risk for heart attack: (1) Estimate based on Framingham equation (2) Framingham equation estimate modified by C-reactive protein (CRP) level (3) Framingham estimate modified by family history of heart disease in parents or siblings (4) Framingham estimate modified by both CRP and family heart disease history. This web-based, family-oriented cardiac risk estimator uniquely considers family history and CRP while estimating risk.

Pilot-based parametric channel estimation algorithm for DCO-OFDM-based visual light communications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Xuewen; Deng, Honggui; He, Hailang

2017-10-01

Due to wide modulation bandwidth in optical communication, multipath channels may be non-sparse and deteriorate communication performance heavily. Traditional compressive sensing-based channel estimation algorithm cannot be employed in this kind of situation. In this paper, we propose a practical parametric channel estimation algorithm for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM)-based visual light communication (VLC) systems based on modified zero correlation code (ZCC) pair that has the impulse-like correlation property. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm achieves better performances than existing least squares (LS)-based algorithm in both bit error ratio (BER) and frequency response estimation.

Estimation of under-reporting in epidemics using approximations.

PubMed

Gamado, Kokouvi; Streftaris, George; Zachary, Stan

2017-06-01

Under-reporting in epidemics, when it is ignored, leads to under-estimation of the infection rate and therefore of the reproduction number. In the case of stochastic models with temporal data, a usual approach for dealing with such issues is to apply data augmentation techniques through Bayesian methodology. Departing from earlier literature approaches implemented using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) techniques, we make use of approximations to obtain faster estimation with simple MCMC. Comparisons among the methods developed here, and with the RJMCMC approach, are carried out and highlight that approximation-based methodology offers useful alternative inference tools for large epidemics, with a good trade-off between time cost and accuracy.

Does Speech Emerge from Earlier Appearing Oral Motor Behaviors?.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Christopher A.; Ruark, Jacki L.

1996-01-01

This study of the oral motor behaviors of seven toddlers (age 15 months) may be interpreted to indicate that: (1) mandibular coordination follows a developmental continuum from earlier emerging behaviors, such as chewing and sucking, through babbling, to speech, or (2) unique task demands give rise to distinct mandibular coordinative constraints…

Earlier response assessment in invasive aspergillosis based on the kinetics of serum Aspergillus galactomannan: proposal for a new definition.

PubMed

Nouér, Simone A; Nucci, Marcio; Kumar, Naveen Sanath; Grazziutti, Monica; Barlogie, Bart; Anaissie, Elias

2011-10-01

Current criteria for assessing treatment response of invasive aspergillosis (IA) rely on nonspecific subjective parameters. We hypothesized that an Aspergillus-specific response definition based on the kinetics of serum Aspergillus galactomannan index (GMI) would provide earlier and more objective response assessment. We compared the 6-week European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Mycoses Study Group (EORTC/MSG) response criteria with GMI-based response among 115 cancer patients with IA. Success according to GMI required survival with repeatedly negative GMI for ≥2 weeks. Time to response and agreement between the 2 definitions were the study endpoints. Success according to EORTC/MSG and GMI criteria was observed in 73 patients (63%) and 83 patients (72%), respectively. The GMI-based response was determined at a median of 21 days after treatment initiation (range, 15-41 days), 3 weeks before the EORTC/MSG time point, in 72 (87%) of 83 responders. Agreement between definitions was shown in all 32 nonresponders and in 73 of the 83 responders (91% overall), with an excellent κ correlation coefficient of 0.819. Among 10 patients with discordant response (EORTC/MSG failure, GMI success), 1 is alive without IA 3 years after diagnosis; for the other, aspergillosis could not be detected at autopsy. The presence of other life-threatening complications in the remaining 8 patients indicates that IA had resolved. The Aspergillus-specific GMI-based criteria compare favorably to current response definitions for IA and significantly shorten time to response assessment. These criteria rely on a simple, reproducible, objective, and Aspergillus-specific test and should serve as the primary endpoint in trials of IA.

New estimates of hardwood lumber exports to Europe and Asia

Treesearch

William G. Luppold; R. Edward Thomas; R. Edward Thomas

1991-01-01

Explains how earlier estimates of hardwood-lumber exports were in error, discusses the procedures used to develop a new set of hardwood-lumber export estimates, and presents a detailed set of new hardwood-lumber export estimates for European and Asian markets.

Localized Dictionaries Based Orientation Field Estimation for Latent Fingerprints.

PubMed

Xiao Yang; Jianjiang Feng; Jie Zhou

2014-05-01

Dictionary based orientation field estimation approach has shown promising performance for latent fingerprints. In this paper, we seek to exploit stronger prior knowledge of fingerprints in order to further improve the performance. Realizing that ridge orientations at different locations of fingerprints have different characteristics, we propose a localized dictionaries-based orientation field estimation algorithm, in which noisy orientation patch at a location output by a local estimation approach is replaced by real orientation patch in the local dictionary at the same location. The precondition of applying localized dictionaries is that the pose of the latent fingerprint needs to be estimated. We propose a Hough transform-based fingerprint pose estimation algorithm, in which the predictions about fingerprint pose made by all orientation patches in the latent fingerprint are accumulated. Experimental results on challenging latent fingerprint datasets show the proposed method outperforms previous ones markedly.

Adaptive multitaper time-frequency spectrum estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitton, James W.

1999-11-01

In earlier work, Thomson's adaptive multitaper spectrum estimation method was extended to the nonstationary case. This paper reviews the time-frequency multitaper method and the adaptive procedure, and explores some properties of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors. The variance of the adaptive estimator is used to construct an adaptive smoother, which is used to form a high resolution estimate. An F-test for detecting and removing sinusoidal components in the time-frequency spectrum is also given.

Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

2015-05-01

The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

Vision-Based Detection and Distance Estimation of Micro Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

PubMed Central

Gökçe, Fatih; Üçoluk, Göktürk; Şahin, Erol; Kalkan, Sinan

2015-01-01

Detection and distance estimation of micro unmanned aerial vehicles (mUAVs) is crucial for (i) the detection of intruder mUAVs in protected environments; (ii) sense and avoid purposes on mUAVs or on other aerial vehicles and (iii) multi-mUAV control scenarios, such as environmental monitoring, surveillance and exploration. In this article, we evaluate vision algorithms as alternatives for detection and distance estimation of mUAVs, since other sensing modalities entail certain limitations on the environment or on the distance. For this purpose, we test Haar-like features, histogram of gradients (HOG) and local binary patterns (LBP) using cascades of boosted classifiers. Cascaded boosted classifiers allow fast processing by performing detection tests at multiple stages, where only candidates passing earlier simple stages are processed at the preceding more complex stages. We also integrate a distance estimation method with our system utilizing geometric cues with support vector regressors. We evaluated each method on indoor and outdoor videos that are collected in a systematic way and also on videos having motion blur. Our experiments show that, using boosted cascaded classifiers with LBP, near real-time detection and distance estimation of mUAVs are possible in about 60 ms indoors (1032×778 resolution) and 150 ms outdoors (1280×720 resolution) per frame, with a detection rate of 0.96 F-score. However, the cascaded classifiers using Haar-like features lead to better distance estimation since they can position the bounding boxes on mUAVs more accurately. On the other hand, our time analysis yields that the cascaded classifiers using HOG train and run faster than the other algorithms. PMID:26393599

Earlier parental set bedtimes as a protective factor against depression and suicidal ideation.

PubMed

Gangwisch, James E; Babiss, Lindsay A; Malaspina, Dolores; Turner, J Blake; Zammit, Gary K; Posner, Kelly

2010-01-01

To examine the relationships between parental set bedtimes, sleep duration, and depression as a quasi-experiment to explore the potentially bidirectional relationship between short sleep duration and depression. Short sleep duration has been shown to precede depression, but this could be explained as a prodromal symptom of depression. Depression in an adolescent can affect his/her chosen bedtime, but it is less likely to affect a parent's chosen set bedtime which can establish a relatively stable upper limit that can directly affect sleep duration. Multivariate cross-sectional analyses of the ADD Health using logistic regression. United States nationally representative, school-based, probability-based sample in 1994-96. Adolescents (n = 15,659) in grades 7 to 12. Adolescents with parental set bedtimes of midnight or later were 24% more likely to suffer from depression (OR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.04-1.49) and 20% more likely to have suicidal ideation (1.20, 1.01-1.41) than adolescents with parental set bedtimes of 10:00 PM or earlier, after controlling for covariates. Consistent with sleep duration and perception of getting enough sleep acting as mediators, the inclusion of these variables in the multivariate models appreciably attenuated the associations for depression (1.07, 0.88-1.30) and suicidal ideation (1.09, 0.92-1.29). The results from this study provide new evidence to strengthen the argument that short sleep duration could play a role in the etiology of depression. Earlier parental set bedtimes could therefore be protective against adolescent depression and suicidal ideation by lengthening sleep duration.

Later endogenous circadian temperature nadir relative to an earlier wake time in older people

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, J. F.; Dijk, D. J.; Klerman, E. B.; Czeisler, C. A.

1998-01-01

The contribution of the circadian timing system to the age-related advance of sleep-wake timing was investigated in two experiments. In a constant routine protocol, we found that the average wake time and endogenous circadian phase of 44 older subjects were earlier than that of 101 young men. However, the earlier circadian phase of the older subjects actually occurred later relative to their habitual wake time than it did in young men. These results indicate that an age-related advance of circadian phase cannot fully account for the high prevalence of early morning awakening in healthy older people. In a second study, 13 older subjects and 10 young men were scheduled to a 28-h day, such that they were scheduled to sleep at many circadian phases. Self-reported awakening from scheduled sleep episodes and cognitive throughput during the second half of the wake episode varied markedly as a function of circadian phase in both groups. The rising phase of both rhythms was advanced in the older subjects, suggesting an age-related change in the circadian regulation of sleep-wake propensity. We hypothesize that under entrained conditions, these age-related changes in the relationship between circadian phase and wake time are likely associated with self-selected light exposure at an earlier circadian phase. This earlier exposure to light could account for the earlier clock hour to which the endogenous circadian pacemaker is entrained in older people and thereby further increase their propensity to awaken at an even earlier time.

Distributed Damage Estimation for Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

2011-01-01

Model-based prognostics approaches capture system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail. These methods consist of a damage estimation phase, in which the health state of a component is estimated, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine end of life. However, the damage estimation problem is often multi-dimensional and computationally intensive. We propose a model decomposition approach adapted from the diagnosis community, called possible conflicts, in order to both improve the computational efficiency of damage estimation, and formulate a damage estimation approach that is inherently distributed. Local state estimates are combined into a global state estimate from which prediction is performed. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the approach.

A novel SURE-based criterion for parametric PSF estimation.

PubMed

Xue, Feng; Blu, Thierry

2015-02-01

We propose an unbiased estimate of a filtered version of the mean squared error--the blur-SURE (Stein's unbiased risk estimate)--as a novel criterion for estimating an unknown point spread function (PSF) from the degraded image only. The PSF is obtained by minimizing this new objective functional over a family of Wiener processings. Based on this estimated blur kernel, we then perform nonblind deconvolution using our recently developed algorithm. The SURE-based framework is exemplified with a number of parametric PSF, involving a scaling factor that controls the blur size. A typical example of such parametrization is the Gaussian kernel. The experimental results demonstrate that minimizing the blur-SURE yields highly accurate estimates of the PSF parameters, which also result in a restoration quality that is very similar to the one obtained with the exact PSF, when plugged into our recent multi-Wiener SURE-LET deconvolution algorithm. The highly competitive results obtained outline the great potential of developing more powerful blind deconvolution algorithms based on SURE-like estimates.

Reading-Related Skills in Earlier- and Later-Schooled Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cunningham, Anna J.; Carroll, Julia M.

2011-01-01

We investigate the effects of age-related factors and formal instruction on the development of reading-related skills in children aged 4 and 7 years. Age effects were determined by comparing two groups of children at the onset of formal schooling; one aged 7 (later-schooled) and one aged 4 (earlier-schooled). Schooling effects were measured by…

A Systematic Approach for Model-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Garg, Sanjay

2010-01-01

A requirement for effective aircraft engine performance estimation is the ability to account for engine degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters such as efficiencies and flow capacities related to each major engine module. This paper presents a linear point design methodology for minimizing the degradation-induced error in model-based aircraft engine performance estimation applications. The technique specifically focuses on the underdetermined estimation problem, where there are more unknown health parameters than available sensor measurements. A condition for Kalman filter-based estimation is that the number of health parameters estimated cannot exceed the number of sensed measurements. In this paper, the estimated health parameter vector will be replaced by a reduced order tuner vector whose dimension is equivalent to the sensed measurement vector. The reduced order tuner vector is systematically selected to minimize the theoretical mean squared estimation error of a maximum a posteriori estimator formulation. This paper derives theoretical estimation errors at steady-state operating conditions, and presents the tuner selection routine applied to minimize these values. Results from the application of the technique to an aircraft engine simulation are presented and compared to the estimation accuracy achieved through conventional maximum a posteriori and Kalman filter estimation approaches. Maximum a posteriori estimation results demonstrate that reduced order tuning parameter vectors can be found that approximate the accuracy of estimating all health parameters directly. Kalman filter estimation results based on the same reduced order tuning parameter vectors demonstrate that significantly improved estimation accuracy can be achieved over the conventional approach of selecting a subset of health parameters to serve as the tuner vector. However, additional development is necessary to fully extend the methodology to Kalman filter-based

Model-based estimation for dynamic cardiac studies using ECT.

PubMed

Chiao, P C; Rogers, W L; Clinthorne, N H; Fessler, J A; Hero, A O

1994-01-01

The authors develop a strategy for joint estimation of physiological parameters and myocardial boundaries using ECT (emission computed tomography). They construct an observation model to relate parameters of interest to the projection data and to account for limited ECT system resolution and measurement noise. The authors then use a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to jointly estimate all the parameters directly from the projection data without reconstruction of intermediate images. They also simulate myocardial perfusion studies based on a simplified heart model to evaluate the performance of the model-based joint ML estimator and compare this performance to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Finally, the authors discuss model assumptions and potential uses of the joint estimation strategy.

Smoking is associated with earlier time to revision of total knee arthroplasty.

PubMed

Lim, Chin Tat; Goodman, Stuart B; Huddleston, James I; Harris, Alex H S; Bhowmick, Subhrojyoti; Maloney, William J; Amanatullah, Derek F

2017-10-01

Smoking is associated with early postoperative complications, increased length of hospital stay, and an increased risk of revision after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). However, the effect of smoking on time to revision TKA is unknown. A total of 619 primary TKAs referred to an academic tertiary center for revision TKA were retrospectively stratified according to the patient smoking status. Smoking status was then analyzed for associations with time to revision TKA using a Chi square test. The association was also analyzed according to the indication for revision TKA. Smokers (37/41, 90%) have an increased risk of earlier revision for any reason compared to non-smokers (274/357, 77%, p=0.031). Smokers (37/41, 90%) have an increased risk of earlier revision for any reason compared to ex-smokers (168/221, 76%, p=0.028). Subgroup analysis did not reveal a difference in indication for revision TKA (p>0.05). Smokers are at increased risk of earlier revision TKA when compared to non-smokers and ex-smokers. The risk for ex-smokers was similar to that of non-smokers. Smoking appears to have an all-or-none effect on earlier revision TKA as patients who smoked more did not have higher risk of early revision TKA. These results highlight the need for clinicians to urge patients not to begin smoking and encourage smokers to quit smoking prior to primary TKA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Muscle parameters estimation based on biplanar radiography.

PubMed

Dubois, G; Rouch, P; Bonneau, D; Gennisson, J L; Skalli, W

2016-11-01

The evaluation of muscle and joint forces in vivo is still a challenge. Musculo-Skeletal (musculo-skeletal) models are used to compute forces based on movement analysis. Most of them are built from a scaled-generic model based on cadaver measurements, which provides a low level of personalization, or from Magnetic Resonance Images, which provide a personalized model in lying position. This study proposed an original two steps method to access a subject-specific musculo-skeletal model in 30 min, which is based solely on biplanar X-Rays. First, the subject-specific 3D geometry of bones and skin envelopes were reconstructed from biplanar X-Rays radiography. Then, 2200 corresponding control points were identified between a reference model and the subject-specific X-Rays model. Finally, the shape of 21 lower limb muscles was estimated using a non-linear transformation between the control points in order to fit the muscle shape of the reference model to the X-Rays model. Twelfth musculo-skeletal models were reconstructed and compared to their reference. The muscle volume was not accurately estimated with a standard deviation (SD) ranging from 10 to 68%. However, this method provided an accurate estimation the muscle line of action with a SD of the length difference lower than 2% and a positioning error lower than 20 mm. The moment arm was also well estimated with SD lower than 15% for most muscle, which was significantly better than scaled-generic model for most muscle. This method open the way to a quick modeling method for gait analysis based on biplanar radiography.

Evaluating Satellite-based Rainfall Estimates for Basin-scale Hydrologic Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yilmaz, K. K.; Hogue, T. S.; Hsu, K.; Gupta, H. V.; Mahani, S. E.; Sorooshian, S.

2003-12-01

The reliability of any hydrologic simulation and basin outflow prediction effort depends primarily on the rainfall estimates. The problem of estimating rainfall becomes more obvious in basins with scarce or no rain gauges. We present an evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates for basin-scale hydrologic modeling with particular interest in ungauged basins. The initial phase of this study focuses on comparison of mean areal rainfall estimates from ground-based rain gauge network, NEXRAD radar Stage-III, and satellite-based PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) and their influence on hydrologic model simulations over several basins in the U.S. Six-hourly accumulations of the above competing mean areal rainfall estimates are used as input to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model. Preliminary experiments for the Leaf River Basin in Mississippi, for the period of March 2000 - June 2002, reveals that seasonality plays an important role in the comparison. There is an overestimation during the summer and underestimation during the winter in satellite-based rainfall with respect to the competing rainfall estimates. The consequence of this result on the hydrologic model is that simulated discharge underestimates the major observed peak discharges during early spring for the basin under study. Future research will entail developing correction procedures, which depend on different factors such as seasonality, geographic location and basin size, for satellite-based rainfall estimates over basins with dense rain gauge network and/or radar coverage. Extension of these correction procedures to satellite-based rainfall estimates over ungauged basins with similar characteristics has the potential for reducing the input uncertainty in ungauged basin modeling efforts.

Estimation of fecundability from survey data.

PubMed

Goldman, N; Westoff, C F; Paul, L E

1985-01-01

The estimation of fecundability from survey data is plagued by methodological problems such as misreporting of dates of birth and marriage and the occurrence of premarital exposure to the risk of conception. Nevertheless, estimates of fecundability from World Fertility Survey data for women married in recent years appear to be plausible for most of the surveys analyzed here and are quite consistent with estimates reported in earlier studies. The estimates presented in this article are all derived from the first interval, the interval between marriage or consensual union and the first live birth conception.

Estimating monthly temperature using point based interpolation techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saaban, Azizan; Mah Hashim, Noridayu; Murat, Rusdi Indra Zuhdi

2013-04-01

This paper discusses the use of point based interpolation to estimate the value of temperature at an unallocated meteorology stations in Peninsular Malaysia using data of year 2010 collected from the Malaysian Meteorology Department. Two point based interpolation methods which are Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) are considered. The accuracy of the methods is evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results show that RBF with thin plate spline model is suitable to be used as temperature estimator for the months of January and December, while RBF with multiquadric model is suitable to estimate the temperature for the rest of the months.

Floodplains within reservoirs promote earlier spawning of white crappies Pomoxis annularis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miranda, Leandro E.; Dagel, Jonah D.; Kaczka, Levi J.; Mower, Ethan; Wigen, S. L.

2015-01-01

Reservoirs impounded over floodplain rivers are unique because they may include within their upper reaches extensive shallow water stored over preexistent floodplains. Because of their relatively flat topography and riverine origin, floodplains in the upper reaches of reservoirs provide broad expanses of vegetation within a narrow range of reservoir water levels. Elsewhere in the reservoir, topography creates a band of shallow water along the contour of the reservoir where vegetation often does not grow. Thus, as water levels rise, floodplains may be the first vegetated habitats inundated within the reservoir. We hypothesized that shallow water in reservoir floodplains would attract spawning white crappies Pomoxis annularis earlier than reservoir embayments. Crappie relative abundance over five years in floodplains and embayments of four reservoirs increased as spawning season approached, peaked, and decreased as fish exited shallow water. Relative abundance peaked earlier in floodplains than embayments, and the difference was magnified with higher water levels. Early access to suitable spawning habitat promotes earlier spawning and may increase population fitness. Recognition of the importance of reservoir floodplains, an understanding of how reservoir water levels can be managed to provide timely connectivity to floodplains, and conservation of reservoir floodplains may be focal points of environmental management in reservoirs.

Age Estimation Based on Children's Voice: A Fuzzy-Based Decision Fusion Strategy

PubMed Central

Ting, Hua-Nong

2014-01-01

Automatic estimation of a speaker's age is a challenging research topic in the area of speech analysis. In this paper, a novel approach to estimate a speaker's age is presented. The method features a “divide and conquer” strategy wherein the speech data are divided into six groups based on the vowel classes. There are two reasons behind this strategy. First, reduction in the complicated distribution of the processing data improves the classifier's learning performance. Second, different vowel classes contain complementary information for age estimation. Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients are computed for each group and single layer feed-forward neural networks based on self-adaptive extreme learning machine are applied to the features to make a primary decision. Subsequently, fuzzy data fusion is employed to provide an overall decision by aggregating the classifier's outputs. The results are then compared with a number of state-of-the-art age estimation methods. Experiments conducted based on six age groups including children aged between 7 and 12 years revealed that fuzzy fusion of the classifier's outputs resulted in considerable improvement of up to 53.33% in age estimation accuracy. Moreover, the fuzzy fusion of decisions aggregated the complementary information of a speaker's age from various speech sources. PMID:25006595

Earlier and greater hand pre-shaping in the elderly: a study based on kinematic analysis of reaching movements to grasp objects.

PubMed

Tamaru, Yoshiki; Naito, Yasuo; Nishikawa, Takashi

2017-11-01

Elderly people are less able to manipulate objects skilfully than young adults. Although previous studies have examined age-related deterioration of hand movements with a focus on the phase after grasping objects, the changes in the reaching phase have not been studied thus far. We aimed to examine whether changes in hand shape patterns during the reaching phase of grasping movements differ between young adults and the elderly. Ten healthy elderly adults and 10 healthy young adults were examined using the Simple Test for Evaluating Hand Functions and kinetic analysis of hand pre-shaping reach-to-grasp tasks. The results were then compared between the two groups. For kinetic analysis, we measured the time of peak tangential velocity of the wrist and the inter-fingertip distance (the distance between the tips of the thumb and index finger) at different time points. The results showed that the elderly group's performance on the Simple Test for Evaluating Hand Functions was significantly lower than that of the young adult group, irrespective of whether the dominant or non-dominant hand was used, indicating deterioration of hand movement in the elderly. The peak tangential velocity of the wrist in either hand appeared significantly earlier in the elderly group than in the young adult group. The elderly group also showed larger inter-fingertip distances with arch-like fingertip trajectories compared to the young adult group for all object sizes. To perform accurate prehension, elderly people have an earlier peak tangential velocity point than young adults. This allows for a longer adjustment time for reaching and grasping movements and for reducing errors in object prehension by opening the hand and fingers wider. Elderly individuals gradually modify their strategy based on previous successes and failures during daily living to compensate for their decline in dexterity and operational capabilities. © 2017 Japanese Psychogeriatric Society.

View northeast, wharf A, portion AA, details showing earlier piers ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

View northeast, wharf A, portion AA, details showing earlier piers and braces sloping toward water, reused charred plates for existing decking - U.S. Coast Guard Sandy Hook Station, Western Docking Structure, West of intersection of Canfield Road & Hartshorne Drive, Highlands, Monmouth County, NJ

Model-based estimation for dynamic cardiac studies using ECT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiao, P.C.; Rogers, W.L.; Clinthorne, N.H.

1994-06-01

In this paper, the authors develop a strategy for joint estimation of physiological parameters and myocardial boundaries using ECT (Emission Computed Tomography). The authors construct an observation model to relate parameters of interest to the projection data and to account for limited ECT system resolution and measurement noise. The authors then use a maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to jointly estimate all the parameters directly from the projection data without reconstruction of intermediate images. The authors also simulate myocardial perfusion studies based on a simplified heart model to evaluate the performance of the model-based joint ML estimator and compare this performancemore » to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. Finally, model assumptions and potential uses of the joint estimation strategy are discussed.« less

Consistency between satellite-derived and modeled estimates of the direct aerosol effect.

PubMed

Myhre, Gunnar

2009-07-10

In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, the direct aerosol effect is reported to have a radiative forcing estimate of -0.5 Watt per square meter (W m(-2)), offsetting the warming from CO2 by almost one-third. The uncertainty, however, ranges from -0.9 to -0.1 W m(-2), which is largely due to differences between estimates from global aerosol models and observation-based estimates, with the latter tending to have stronger (more negative) radiative forcing. This study demonstrates consistency between a global aerosol model and adjustment to an observation-based method, producing a global and annual mean radiative forcing that is weaker than -0.5 W m(-2), with a best estimate of -0.3 W m(-2). The physical explanation for the earlier discrepancy is that the relative increase in anthropogenic black carbon (absorbing aerosols) is much larger than the overall increase in the anthropogenic abundance of aerosols.

Lay persons alerted by mobile application system initiate earlier cardio-pulmonary resuscitation: A comparison with SMS-based system notification.

PubMed

Caputo, Maria Luce; Muschietti, Sandro; Burkart, Roman; Benvenuti, Claudio; Conte, Giulio; Regoli, François; Mauri, Romano; Klersy, Catherine; Moccetti, Tiziano; Auricchio, Angelo

2017-05-01

We compared the time to initiation of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) by lay responders and/or first responders alerted either via Short Message Service (SMS) or by using a mobile application-based alert system (APP). The Ticino Registry of Cardiac Arrest collects all data about out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCAs) occurring in the Canton of Ticino. At the time of a bystander's call, the EMS dispatcher sends one ambulance and alerts the first-responders network made up of police officers or fire brigade equipped with an automatic external defibrillator, the so called "traditional" first responders, and - if the scene was considered safe - lay responders as well. We evaluated the time from call to arrival of traditional first responders and/or lay responders when alerted either via SMS or the new developed mobile APP. Over the study period 593 OHCAs have occurred. Notification to the first responders network was sent via SMS in 198 cases and via mobile APP in 134 cases. Median time to first responder/lay responder arrival on scene was significantly reduced by the APP-based system (3.5 [2.8-5.2]) compared to the SMS-based system (5.6 [4.2-8.5] min, p 0.0001). The proportion of lay responders arriving first on the scene significantly increased (70% vs. 15%, p<0.01) with the APP. Earlier arrival of a first responder or of a lay responder determined a higher survival rate. The mobile APP system is highly efficient in the recruitment of first responders, significantly reducing the time to the initiation of CPR thus increasing survival rates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Earlier reperfusion in patients with ST-elevation Myocardial infarction by use of helicopter

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) reperfusion therapy should be initiated as soon as possible. This study evaluated whether use of a helicopter for transportation of patients is associated with earlier initiation of reperfusion therapy. Material and methods A prospective study was conducted, including patients with STEMI and symptom duration less than 12 hours, who had primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) performed at Aarhus University Hospital in Skejby. Patients with a health care system delay (time from emergency call to first coronary intervention) of more than 360 minutes were excluded. The study period ran from 1.1.2011 until 31.12.2011. A Western Denmark Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (HEMS) project was initiated 1.6.2011 for transportation of patients with time-critical illnesses, including STEMI. Results The study population comprised 398 patients, of whom 376 were transported by ambulance Emergency Medical Service (EMS) and 22 by HEMS. Field-triage directly to the PCI-center was used in 338 of patients. The median system delay was 94 minutes among those field-triaged, and 168 minutes among those initially admitted to a local hospital. Patients transported by EMS and field-triaged were stratified into four groups according to transport distance from the scene of event to the PCI-center: ≤25 km., 26–50 km., 51–75 km. and > 75 km. For these groups, the median system delay was 78, 89, 99, and 141 minutes. Among patients transported by HEMS and field-triaged the estimated median transport distance by ground transportation was 115 km, and the observed system delay was 107 minutes. Based on second order polynomial regression, it was estimated that patients with a transport distance of >60 km to the PCI-center may benefit from helicopter transportation, and that transportation by helicopter is associated with a system delay of less than 120 minutes even at a transport distance up to 150 km

Earlier reperfusion in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction by use of helicopter.

PubMed

Knudsen, Lars; Stengaard, Carsten; Hansen, Troels Martin; Lassen, Jens Flensted; Terkelsen, Christian Juhl

2012-10-04

In patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) reperfusion therapy should be initiated as soon as possible. This study evaluated whether use of a helicopter for transportation of patients is associated with earlier initiation of reperfusion therapy. A prospective study was conducted, including patients with STEMI and symptom duration less than 12 hours, who had primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) performed at Aarhus University Hospital in Skejby. Patients with a health care system delay (time from emergency call to first coronary intervention) of more than 360 minutes were excluded. The study period ran from 1.1.2011 until 31.12.2011. A Western Denmark Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (HEMS) project was initiated 1.6.2011 for transportation of patients with time-critical illnesses, including STEMI. The study population comprised 398 patients, of whom 376 were transported by ambulance Emergency Medical Service (EMS) and 22 by HEMS. Field-triage directly to the PCI-center was used in 338 of patients. The median system delay was 94 minutes among those field-triaged, and 168 minutes among those initially admitted to a local hospital. Patients transported by EMS and field-triaged were stratified into four groups according to transport distance from the scene of event to the PCI-center: ≤25 km., 26-50 km., 51-75 km. and > 75 km. For these groups, the median system delay was 78, 89, 99, and 141 minutes. Among patients transported by HEMS and field-triaged the estimated median transport distance by ground transportation was 115 km, and the observed system delay was 107 minutes. Based on second order polynomial regression, it was estimated that patients with a transport distance of >60 km to the PCI-center may benefit from helicopter transportation, and that transportation by helicopter is associated with a system delay of less than 120 minutes even at a transport distance up to 150 km. The present study indicates that use of a

Models of Quantitative Estimations: Rule-Based and Exemplar-Based Processes Compared

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

von Helversen, Bettina; Rieskamp, Jorg

2009-01-01

The cognitive processes underlying quantitative estimations vary. Past research has identified task-contingent changes between rule-based and exemplar-based processes (P. Juslin, L. Karlsson, & H. Olsson, 2008). B. von Helversen and J. Rieskamp (2008), however, proposed a simple rule-based model--the mapping model--that outperformed the…

Earlier Vegetation Activity Onset Enhances Springtime Water-use Efficiency in Temperate and Boreal Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, J.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

Ecosystem-scale water-use efficiency (EWUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET), is an important indicator for understanding how water couples with the carbon cycle under global change. Relationships between EWUE and abiotic environmental factors (e.g. climatic factors, atmospheric CO2concentration and nitrogen deposition) have been widely investigated, but the variations in EWUE in response to biotic controls remain little understood. Here, we argue that phenology plays an important role in the regulation of EWUE by analyzing springtime EWUE responses to variability of the GPP-based vegetation activity onset (VAO) in temperate and boreal ecosystems using both satellite and flux-tower observations. Based on MODIS productions during 2000-2014, we found that spring EWUE widely significantly increased with the earlier VAO mainly in the mid- and high latitudes (over 50°N), southwestern China and mid-western North America. When AVO advanced a 10-day, the spring EWUE would increase on average by 0.17±0.09 g C kg-1 H2O in temperate and continental climates after removing the effect of environmental factors. The main response patterns of EWUE to phenology suggest that an increase in spring EWUE with an earlier VAO are mainly because the increase in GPP is relatively larger in magnitude compared to that of ET, or due to an increase in GPP accompanied by a decrease in ET, resulting from an advanced VAO. The credibility of the results is also supported by the local-scale observations. By analyzing 66 site-years of flux and meteorological data obtained from 8 temperate deciduous broadleaf forest sites across North America and Europe, spring EWUE increased 0.42±0.08 g C kg-1 H2O with a 10-day advance of VAO across all sites after controlling for environmental factors, mainly because an earlier VAO could lead to a steeper increase in GPP than in ET. Our results and conclusions highlight that phenological factors cannot be

A Channelization-Based DOA Estimation Method for Wideband Signals

PubMed Central

Guo, Rui; Zhang, Yue; Lin, Qianqiang; Chen, Zengping

2016-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel direction of arrival (DOA) estimation method for wideband signals with sensor arrays. The proposed method splits the wideband array output into multiple frequency sub-channels and estimates the signal parameters using a digital channelization receiver. Based on the output sub-channels, a channelization-based incoherent signal subspace method (Channelization-ISM) and a channelization-based test of orthogonality of projected subspaces method (Channelization-TOPS) are proposed. Channelization-ISM applies narrowband signal subspace methods on each sub-channel independently. Then the arithmetic mean or geometric mean of the estimated DOAs from each sub-channel gives the final result. Channelization-TOPS measures the orthogonality between the signal and the noise subspaces of the output sub-channels to estimate DOAs. The proposed channelization-based method isolates signals in different bandwidths reasonably and improves the output SNR. It outperforms the conventional ISM and TOPS methods on estimation accuracy and dynamic range, especially in real environments. Besides, the parallel processing architecture makes it easy to implement on hardware. A wideband digital array radar (DAR) using direct wideband radio frequency (RF) digitization is presented. Experiments carried out in a microwave anechoic chamber with the wideband DAR are presented to demonstrate the performance. The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. PMID:27384566

Fine-tuning satellite-based rainfall estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harsa, Hastuadi; Buono, Agus; Hidayat, Rahmat; Achyar, Jaumil; Noviati, Sri; Kurniawan, Roni; Praja, Alfan S.

2018-05-01

Rainfall datasets are available from various sources, including satellite estimates and ground observation. The locations of ground observation scatter sparsely. Therefore, the use of satellite estimates is advantageous, because satellite estimates can provide data on places where the ground observations do not present. However, in general, the satellite estimates data contain bias, since they are product of algorithms that transform the sensors response into rainfall values. Another cause may come from the number of ground observations used by the algorithms as the reference in determining the rainfall values. This paper describe the application of bias correction method to modify the satellite-based dataset by adding a number of ground observation locations that have not been used before by the algorithm. The bias correction was performed by utilizing Quantile Mapping procedure between ground observation data and satellite estimates data. Since Quantile Mapping required mean and standard deviation of both the reference and the being-corrected data, thus the Inverse Distance Weighting scheme was applied beforehand to the mean and standard deviation of the observation data in order to provide a spatial composition of them, which were originally scattered. Therefore, it was possible to provide a reference data point at the same location with that of the satellite estimates. The results show that the new dataset have statistically better representation of the rainfall values recorded by the ground observation than the previous dataset.

Accurate position estimation methods based on electrical impedance tomography measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergara, Samuel; Sbarbaro, Daniel; Johansen, T. A.

2017-08-01

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) is a technology that estimates the electrical properties of a body or a cross section. Its main advantages are its non-invasiveness, low cost and operation free of radiation. The estimation of the conductivity field leads to low resolution images compared with other technologies, and high computational cost. However, in many applications the target information lies in a low intrinsic dimensionality of the conductivity field. The estimation of this low-dimensional information is addressed in this work. It proposes optimization-based and data-driven approaches for estimating this low-dimensional information. The accuracy of the results obtained with these approaches depends on modelling and experimental conditions. Optimization approaches are sensitive to model discretization, type of cost function and searching algorithms. Data-driven methods are sensitive to the assumed model structure and the data set used for parameter estimation. The system configuration and experimental conditions, such as number of electrodes and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), also have an impact on the results. In order to illustrate the effects of all these factors, the position estimation of a circular anomaly is addressed. Optimization methods based on weighted error cost functions and derivate-free optimization algorithms provided the best results. Data-driven approaches based on linear models provided, in this case, good estimates, but the use of nonlinear models enhanced the estimation accuracy. The results obtained by optimization-based algorithms were less sensitive to experimental conditions, such as number of electrodes and SNR, than data-driven approaches. Position estimation mean squared errors for simulation and experimental conditions were more than twice for the optimization-based approaches compared with the data-driven ones. The experimental position estimation mean squared error of the data-driven models using a 16-electrode setup was less

Improving cluster-based missing value estimation of DNA microarray data.

PubMed

Brás, Lígia P; Menezes, José C

2007-06-01

We present a modification of the weighted K-nearest neighbours imputation method (KNNimpute) for missing values (MVs) estimation in microarray data based on the reuse of estimated data. The method was called iterative KNN imputation (IKNNimpute) as the estimation is performed iteratively using the recently estimated values. The estimation efficiency of IKNNimpute was assessed under different conditions (data type, fraction and structure of missing data) by the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) and the correlation coefficients between estimated and true values, and compared with that of other cluster-based estimation methods (KNNimpute and sequential KNN). We further investigated the influence of imputation on the detection of differentially expressed genes using SAM by examining the differentially expressed genes that are lost after MV estimation. The performance measures give consistent results, indicating that the iterative procedure of IKNNimpute can enhance the prediction ability of cluster-based methods in the presence of high missing rates, in non-time series experiments and in data sets comprising both time series and non-time series data, because the information of the genes having MVs is used more efficiently and the iterative procedure allows refining the MV estimates. More importantly, IKNN has a smaller detrimental effect on the detection of differentially expressed genes.

Estimation of Thermal Sensation Based on Wrist Skin Temperatures.

PubMed

Sim, Soo Young; Koh, Myung Jun; Joo, Kwang Min; Noh, Seungwoo; Park, Sangyun; Kim, Youn Ho; Park, Kwang Suk

2016-03-23

Thermal comfort is an essential environmental factor related to quality of life and work effectiveness. We assessed the feasibility of wrist skin temperature monitoring for estimating subjective thermal sensation. We invented a wrist band that simultaneously monitors skin temperatures from the wrist (i.e., the radial artery and ulnar artery regions, and upper wrist) and the fingertip. Skin temperatures from eight healthy subjects were acquired while thermal sensation varied. To develop a thermal sensation estimation model, the mean skin temperature, temperature gradient, time differential of the temperatures, and average power of frequency band were calculated. A thermal sensation estimation model using temperatures of the fingertip and wrist showed the highest accuracy (mean root mean square error [RMSE]: 1.26 ± 0.31). An estimation model based on the three wrist skin temperatures showed a slightly better result to the model that used a single fingertip skin temperature (mean RMSE: 1.39 ± 0.18). When a personalized thermal sensation estimation model based on three wrist skin temperatures was used, the mean RMSE was 1.06 ± 0.29, and the correlation coefficient was 0.89. Thermal sensation estimation technology based on wrist skin temperatures, and combined with wearable devices may facilitate intelligent control of one's thermal environment.

Estimation of Thermal Sensation Based on Wrist Skin Temperatures

PubMed Central

Sim, Soo Young; Koh, Myung Jun; Joo, Kwang Min; Noh, Seungwoo; Park, Sangyun; Kim, Youn Ho; Park, Kwang Suk

2016-01-01

Thermal comfort is an essential environmental factor related to quality of life and work effectiveness. We assessed the feasibility of wrist skin temperature monitoring for estimating subjective thermal sensation. We invented a wrist band that simultaneously monitors skin temperatures from the wrist (i.e., the radial artery and ulnar artery regions, and upper wrist) and the fingertip. Skin temperatures from eight healthy subjects were acquired while thermal sensation varied. To develop a thermal sensation estimation model, the mean skin temperature, temperature gradient, time differential of the temperatures, and average power of frequency band were calculated. A thermal sensation estimation model using temperatures of the fingertip and wrist showed the highest accuracy (mean root mean square error [RMSE]: 1.26 ± 0.31). An estimation model based on the three wrist skin temperatures showed a slightly better result to the model that used a single fingertip skin temperature (mean RMSE: 1.39 ± 0.18). When a personalized thermal sensation estimation model based on three wrist skin temperatures was used, the mean RMSE was 1.06 ± 0.29, and the correlation coefficient was 0.89. Thermal sensation estimation technology based on wrist skin temperatures, and combined with wearable devices may facilitate intelligent control of one’s thermal environment. PMID:27023538

Can Nonexperimental Estimates Replicate Estimates Based on Random Assignment in Evaluations of School Choice? A Within-Study Comparison

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bifulco, Robert

2012-01-01

The ability of nonexperimental estimators to match impact estimates derived from random assignment is examined using data from the evaluation of two interdistrict magnet schools. As in previous within-study comparisons, nonexperimental estimates differ from estimates based on random assignment when nonexperimental estimators are implemented…

Estimating Driving Performance Based on EEG Spectrum Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chin-Teng; Wu, Ruei-Cheng; Jung, Tzyy-Ping; Liang, Sheng-Fu; Huang, Teng-Yi

2005-12-01

The growing number of traffic accidents in recent years has become a serious concern to society. Accidents caused by driver's drowsiness behind the steering wheel have a high fatality rate because of the marked decline in the driver's abilities of perception, recognition, and vehicle control abilities while sleepy. Preventing such accidents caused by drowsiness is highly desirable but requires techniques for continuously detecting, estimating, and predicting the level of alertness of drivers and delivering effective feedbacks to maintain their maximum performance. This paper proposes an EEG-based drowsiness estimation system that combines electroencephalogram (EEG) log subband power spectrum, correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and linear regression models to indirectly estimate driver's drowsiness level in a virtual-reality-based driving simulator. Our results demonstrated that it is feasible to accurately estimate quantitatively driving performance, expressed as deviation between the center of the vehicle and the center of the cruising lane, in a realistic driving simulator.

Vehicle Lateral State Estimation Based on Measured Tyre Forces

PubMed Central

Tuononen, Ari J.

2009-01-01

Future active safety systems need more accurate information about the state of vehicles. This article proposes a method to evaluate the lateral state of a vehicle based on measured tyre forces. The tyre forces of two tyres are estimated from optically measured tyre carcass deflections and transmitted wirelessly to the vehicle body. The two remaining tyres are so-called virtual tyre sensors, the forces of which are calculated from the real tyre sensor estimates. The Kalman filter estimator for lateral vehicle state based on measured tyre forces is presented, together with a simple method to define adaptive measurement error covariance depending on the driving condition of the vehicle. The estimated yaw rate and lateral velocity are compared with the validation sensor measurements. PMID:22291535

Estimation of Compaction Parameters Based on Soil Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubis, A. S.; Muis, Z. A.; Hastuty, I. P.; Siregar, I. M.

2018-02-01

Factors that must be considered in compaction of the soil works were the type of soil material, field control, maintenance and availability of funds. Those problems then raised the idea of how to estimate the density of the soil with a proper implementation system, fast, and economical. This study aims to estimate the compaction parameter i.e. the maximum dry unit weight (γ dmax) and optimum water content (Wopt) based on soil classification. Each of 30 samples were being tested for its properties index and compaction test. All of the data’s from the laboratory test results, were used to estimate the compaction parameter values by using linear regression and Goswami Model. From the research result, the soil types were A4, A-6, and A-7 according to AASHTO and SC, SC-SM, and CL based on USCS. By linear regression, the equation for estimation of the maximum dry unit weight (γdmax *)=1,862-0,005*FINES- 0,003*LL and estimation of the optimum water content (wopt *)=- 0,607+0,362*FINES+0,161*LL. By Goswami Model (with equation Y=mLogG+k), for estimation of the maximum dry unit weight (γdmax *) with m=-0,376 and k=2,482, for estimation of the optimum water content (wopt *) with m=21,265 and k=-32,421. For both of these equations a 95% confidence interval was obtained.

Comprehensive methods for earlier detection and monitoring of forest decline

Treesearch

Jennifer Pontius; Richard Hallett

2014-01-01

Forested ecosystems are threatened by invasive pests, pathogens, and unusual climatic events brought about by climate change. Earlier detection of incipient forest health problems and a quantitatively rigorous assessment method is increasingly important. Here, we describe a method that is adaptable across tree species and stress agents and practical for use in the...

Optimal designs based on the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator

PubMed Central

Shen, Gang; Hyun, Seung Won; Wong, Weng Kee

2016-01-01

We use optimal design theory and construct locally optimal designs based on the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator (MqLE), which is derived under less stringent conditions than those required for the MLE method. We show that the proposed locally optimal designs are asymptotically as efficient as those based on the MLE when the error distribution is from an exponential family, and they perform just as well or better than optimal designs based on any other asymptotically linear unbiased estimators such as the least square estimator (LSE). In addition, we show current algorithms for finding optimal designs can be directly used to find optimal designs based on the MqLE. As an illustrative application, we construct a variety of locally optimal designs based on the MqLE for the 4-parameter logistic (4PL) model and study their robustness properties to misspecifications in the model using asymptotic relative efficiency. The results suggest that optimal designs based on the MqLE can be easily generated and they are quite robust to mis-specification in the probability distribution of the responses. PMID:28163359

Pros, Cons, and Alternatives to Weight Based Cost Estimating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joyner, Claude R.; Lauriem, Jonathan R.; Levack, Daniel H.; Zapata, Edgar

2011-01-01

Many cost estimating tools use weight as a major parameter in projecting the cost. This is often combined with modifying factors such as complexity, technical maturity of design, environment of operation, etc. to increase the fidelity of the estimate. For a set of conceptual designs, all meeting the same requirements, increased weight can be a major driver in increased cost. However, once a design is fixed, increased weight generally decreases cost, while decreased weight generally increases cost - and the relationship is not linear. Alternative approaches to estimating cost without using weight (except perhaps for materials costs) have been attempted to try to produce a tool usable throughout the design process - from concept studies through development. This paper will address the pros and cons of using weight based models for cost estimating, using liquid rocket engines as the example. It will then examine approaches that minimize the impct of weight based cost estimating. The Rocket Engine- Cost Model (RECM) is an attribute based model developed internally by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne for NASA. RECM will be presented primarily to show a successful method to use design and programmatic parameters instead of weight to estimate both design and development costs and production costs. An operations model developed by KSC, the Launch and Landing Effects Ground Operations model (LLEGO), will also be discussed.

A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

2018-02-01

Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

Earlier Violent Television Exposure and Later Drug Dependence

PubMed Central

Brook, David W.; Katten, Naomi S.; Ning, Yuming; Brook, Judith S.

2013-01-01

This research examined the longitudinal pathways from earlier violent television exposure to later drug dependence. African American and Puerto Rican adolescents were interviewed during three points in time (N = 463). Violent television exposure in late adolescence predicted violent television exposure in young adulthood, which in turn was related to tobacco/marijuana use, nicotine dependence, and later drug dependence. Some policy and clinical implications suggest: a) regulating the times when violent television is broadcast; b) creating developmentally targeted prevention/treatment programs; and c) recognizing that watching violent television may serve as a cue regarding increased susceptibility to nicotine and drug dependence. PMID:18612881

Trend of earlier spring in central Europe continued

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ungersböck, Markus; Jurkovic, Anita; Koch, Elisabeth; Lipa, Wolfgang; Scheifinger, Helfried; Zach-Hermann, Susanne

2013-04-01

Modern phenology is the study of the timing of recurring biological events in the animal and plant world, the causes of their timing with regard to biotic and abiotic forces, and the interrelation among phases of the same or different species. The relationship between phenology and climate explains the importance of plant phenology for Climate Change studies. Plants require light, water, oxygen mineral nutrients and suitable temperature to grow. In temperate zones the seasonal life cycle of plants is primarily controlled by temperature and day length. Higher spring air temperatures are resulting in an earlier onset of the phenological spring in temperate and cool climate. On the other hand changes in phenology due to climate change do have impact on the climate system itself. Vegetation is a dynamic factor in the earth - climate system and has positive and negative feedback mechanisms to the biogeochemical and biogeophysical fluxes to the atmosphere Since the mid of the 1980s spring springs earlier in Europe and autumn is shifting back to the end of the year resulting in a longer vegetation period. The advancement of spring can be clearly attributed to temperature increase in the months prior to leaf unfolding and flowering, the timing of autumn is more complex and cannot easily be attributed to one or some few parameters. To demonstrate that the observed advancement of spring since the mid of 1980s is pro-longed in 2001 to 2010 and the delay of fall and the lengthening of the growing season is confirmed in the last decade we picked out several indicator plants from the PEP725 database www.pep725.eu. The PEP725 database collects data from different European network operators and thus offers a unique compilation of phenological observations; the database is regularly updated. The data follow the same classification scheme, the so called BBCH coding system so they can be compared. Lilac Syringa vulgaris, birch Betula pendula, beech Fagus and horse chestnut Aesculus

Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation: SEQUENTIAL ENSEMBLE-BASED OPTIMAL DESIGN

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Man, Jun; Zhang, Jiangjiang; Li, Weixuan

2016-10-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees ofmore » freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.« less

Comparative Analysis of Various Single-tone Frequency Estimation Techniques in High-order Instantaneous Moments Based Phase Estimation Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajshekhar, G.; Gorthi, Sai Siva; Rastogi, Pramod

2010-04-01

For phase estimation in digital holographic interferometry, a high-order instantaneous moments (HIM) based method was recently developed which relies on piecewise polynomial approximation of phase and subsequent evaluation of the polynomial coefficients using the HIM operator. A crucial step in the method is mapping the polynomial coefficient estimation to single-tone frequency determination for which various techniques exist. The paper presents a comparative analysis of the performance of the HIM operator based method in using different single-tone frequency estimation techniques for phase estimation. The analysis is supplemented by simulation results.

Variable disparity-motion estimation based fast three-view video coding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bae, Kyung-Hoon; Kim, Seung-Cheol; Hwang, Yong Seok; Kim, Eun-Soo

2009-02-01

In this paper, variable disparity-motion estimation (VDME) based 3-view video coding is proposed. In the encoding, key-frame coding (KFC) based motion estimation and variable disparity estimation (VDE) for effectively fast three-view video encoding are processed. These proposed algorithms enhance the performance of 3-D video encoding/decoding system in terms of accuracy of disparity estimation and computational overhead. From some experiments, stereo sequences of 'Pot Plant' and 'IVO', it is shown that the proposed algorithm's PSNRs is 37.66 and 40.55 dB, and the processing time is 0.139 and 0.124 sec/frame, respectively.

Model-Based Estimation of Knee Stiffness

PubMed Central

Pfeifer, Serge; Vallery, Heike; Hardegger, Michael; Riener, Robert; Perreault, Eric J.

2013-01-01

During natural locomotion, the stiffness of the human knee is modulated continuously and subconsciously according to the demands of activity and terrain. Given modern actuator technology, powered transfemoral prostheses could theoretically provide a similar degree of sophistication and function. However, experimentally quantifying knee stiffness modulation during natural gait is challenging. Alternatively, joint stiffness could be estimated in a less disruptive manner using electromyography (EMG) combined with kinetic and kinematic measurements to estimate muscle force, together with models that relate muscle force to stiffness. Here we present the first step in that process, where we develop such an approach and evaluate it in isometric conditions, where experimental measurements are more feasible. Our EMG-guided modeling approach allows us to consider conditions with antagonistic muscle activation, a phenomenon commonly observed in physiological gait. Our validation shows that model-based estimates of knee joint stiffness coincide well with experimental data obtained using conventional perturbation techniques. We conclude that knee stiffness can be accurately estimated in isometric conditions without applying perturbations, which presents an important step towards our ultimate goal of quantifying knee stiffness during gait. PMID:22801482

The implementation of contour-based object orientation estimation algorithm in FPGA-based on-board vision system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpatov, Boris; Babayan, Pavel; Ershov, Maksim; Strotov, Valery

2016-10-01

This paper describes the implementation of the orientation estimation algorithm in FPGA-based vision system. An approach to estimate an orientation of objects lacking axial symmetry is proposed. Suggested algorithm is intended to estimate orientation of a specific known 3D object based on object 3D model. The proposed orientation estimation algorithm consists of two stages: learning and estimation. Learning stage is devoted to the exploring of studied object. Using 3D model we can gather set of training images by capturing 3D model from viewpoints evenly distributed on a sphere. Sphere points distribution is made by the geosphere principle. Gathered training image set is used for calculating descriptors, which will be used in the estimation stage of the algorithm. The estimation stage is focusing on matching process between an observed image descriptor and the training image descriptors. The experimental research was performed using a set of images of Airbus A380. The proposed orientation estimation algorithm showed good accuracy in all case studies. The real-time performance of the algorithm in FPGA-based vision system was demonstrated.

A Comparison of Turbidity-Based and Streamflow-Based Estimates of Suspended-Sediment Concentrations in Three Chesapeake Bay Tributaries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jastram, John D.; Moyer, Douglas; Hyer, Kenneth

2009-01-01

Fluvial transport of sediment into the Chesapeake Bay estuary is a persistent water-quality issue with major implications for the overall health of the bay ecosystem. Accurately and precisely estimating the suspended-sediment concentrations (SSC) and loads that are delivered to the bay, however, remains challenging. Although manual sampling of SSC produces an accurate series of point-in-time measurements, robust extrapolation to unmeasured periods (especially highflow periods) has proven to be difficult. Sediment concentrations typically have been estimated using regression relations between individual SSC values and associated streamflow values; however, suspended-sediment transport during storm events is extremely variable, and it is often difficult to relate a unique SSC to a given streamflow. With this limitation for estimating SSC, innovative approaches for generating detailed records of suspended-sediment transport are needed. One effective method for improved suspended-sediment determination involves the continuous monitoring of turbidity as a surrogate for SSC. Turbidity measurements are theoretically well correlated to SSC because turbidity represents a measure of water clarity that is directly influenced by suspended sediments; thus, turbidity-based estimation models typically are effective tools for generating SSC data. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chesapeake Bay Program and Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, initiated continuous turbidity monitoring on three major tributaries of the bay - the James, Rappahannock, and North Fork Shenandoah Rivers - to evaluate the use of turbidity as a sediment surrogate in rivers that deliver sediment to the bay. Results of this surrogate approach were compared to the traditionally applied streamflow-based approach for estimating SSC. Additionally, evaluation and comparison of these two approaches were conducted for nutrient estimations. Results

Evaluation of the use of performance reference compounds in an oasis-HLB adsorbent based passive sampler for improving water concentration estimates of polar herbicides in freshwater

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mazzella, N.; Lissalde, S.; Moreira, S.; Delmas, F.; Mazellier, P.; Huckins, J.N.

2010-01-01

Passive samplers such as the Polar Organic Chemical Integrative Sampler (POCIS) are useful tools for monitoring trace levels of polar organic chemicals in aquatic environments. The use of performance reference compounds (PRC) spiked into the POCIS adsorbent for in situ calibration may improve the semiquantitative nature of water concentration estimates based on this type of sampler. In this work, deuterium labeled atrazine-desisopropyl (DIA-d5) was chosen as PRC because of its relatively high fugacity from Oasis HLB (the POCIS adsorbent used) and our earlier evidence of its isotropic exchange. In situ calibration of POCIS spiked with DIA-d5was performed, and the resulting time-weighted average concentration estimates were compared with similar values from an automatic sampler equipped with Oasis HLB cartridges. Before PRC correction, water concentration estimates based on POCIS data sampling ratesfrom a laboratory calibration exposure were systematically lower than the reference concentrations obtained with the automatic sampler. Use of the DIA-d5 PRC data to correct POCIS sampling rates narrowed differences between corresponding values derived from the two methods. Application of PRCs for in situ calibration seems promising for improving POCIS-derived concentration estimates of polar pesticides. However, careful attention must be paid to the minimization of matrix effects when the quantification is performed by HPLC-ESI-MS/MS. ?? 2010 American Chemical Society.

Economic Costs Avoided by Diagnosing Melanoma Six Months Earlier Justify >100 Benign Biopsies.

PubMed

Aires, Daniel J; Wick, Jo; Shaath, Tarek S; Rajpara, Anand N; Patel, Vikas; Badawi, Ahmed H; Li, Cicy; Fraga, Garth R; Doolittle, Gary; Liu, Deede Y

2016-05-01

New melanoma drugs bring enormous benefits but do so at significant costs. Because melanoma grows deeper and deadlier over time, deeper lesions are costlier due to increased sentinel lymph node biopsy, chemotherapy, and disease-associated income loss. Prior studies have justified pigmented lesion biopsies on a "value per life" basis; by contrast we sought to assess how many biopsies are justified per melanoma found on a purely economic basis. We modeled how melanomas in the United States would behave if diagnosis were delayed by 6 months, eg, not biopsied, only observed until the next surveillance visit. Economic loss from delayed biopsy is the obverse of economic benefit of performing biopsy earlier. Growth rates were based on Liu et al. The results of this study can be applied to all patients presenting to dermatologists with pigmented skin lesions suspicious for melanoma. In-situ melanomas were excluded because no studies to date have modeled growth rates analogous to those for invasive melanoma. We assume conservatively that all melanomas not biopsied initially will be biopsied and treated 6 months later. Major modeled costs are (1) increased sentinel lymph node biopsy, (2) increased chemotherapy for metastatic lesions using increased 5-yr death as metastasis marker, and (3) income loss per melanoma death at $413,370 as previously published. Costs avoided by diagnosing melanoma earlier justify 170 biopsies per melanoma found. Efforts to penalize "unnecessary" biopsies may be economically counterproductive.

J Drugs Dermatol. 2016;15(5):527-532.

Identifying pneumonia outbreaks of public health importance: can emergency department data assist in earlier identification?

PubMed

Hope, Kirsty; Durrheim, David N; Muscatello, David; Merritt, Tony; Zheng, Wei; Massey, Peter; Cashman, Patrick; Eastwood, Keith

2008-08-01

To retrospectively review the performance of a near real-time Emergency Department (ED) Syndromic Surveillance System operating in New South Wales for identifying pneumonia outbreaks of public health importance. Retrospective data was obtained from the NSW Emergency Department data collection for a rural hospital that has experienced a cluster of pneumonia diagnoses among teenage males in August 2006. ED standard reports were examined for signals in the overall count for each respiratory syndrome, and for elevated counts in individual subgroups including; age, sex and admission to hospital status. Using the current thresholds, the ED syndromic surveillance system would have trigged a signal for pneumonia syndrome in children aged 5-16 years four days earlier than the notification by a paediatrician and this signal was maintained for 14 days. If the ED syndromic surveillance system had been operating it could have identified the outbreak earlier than the paediatrician's notification. This may have permitted an earlier public health response. By understanding the behaviour of syndromes during outbreaks of public health importance, response protocols could be developed to facilitate earlier implementation of control measures.

Satellite-based estimation of cloud-base updrafts for convective clouds and stratocumulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.; Rosenfeld, D.; Li, Z.

2017-12-01

Updraft speeds of thermals have always been notoriously difficult to measure, despite significant roles they play in transporting pollutants and in cloud formation and precipitation. To our knowledge, no attempt to date has been made to estimate updraft speed from satellite information. In this study, we introduce three methods of retrieving updraft speeds at cloud base () for convective clouds and marine stratocumulus with VIIRS onboard Suomi-NPP satellite. The first method uses ground-air temperature difference to characterize the surface sensible heat flux, which is found to be correlated with updraft speeds measured by the Doppler lidar over the Southern Great Plains (SGP). Based on the relationship, we use the satellite-retrieved surface skin temperature and reanalysis surface air temperature to estimate the updrafts. The second method is based on a good linear correlation between cloud base height and updrafts, which was found over the SGP, the central Amazon, and on board a ship sailing between Honolulu and Los Angeles. We found a universal relationship for both land and ocean. The third method is for marine stratocumulus. A statistically significant relationship between Wb and cloud-top radiative cooling rate (CTRC) is found from measurements over northeastern Pacific and Atlantic. Based on this relation, satellite- and reanalysis-derived CTRC is utilized to infer the Wb of stratocumulus clouds. Evaluations against ground-based Doppler lidar measurements show estimation errors of 24%, 21% and 22% for the three methods, respectively.

Earlier vegetation green-up has reduced spring dust storms

PubMed Central

Fan, Bihang; Guo, Li; Li, Ning; Chen, Jin; Lin, Henry; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Shen, Miaogen; Rao, Yuhan; Wang, Cong; Ma, Lei

2014-01-01

The observed decline of spring dust storms in Northeast Asia since the 1950s has been attributed to surface wind stilling. However, spring vegetation growth could also restrain dust storms through accumulating aboveground biomass and increasing surface roughness. To investigate the impacts of vegetation spring growth on dust storms, we examine the relationships between recorded spring dust storm outbreaks and satellite-derived vegetation green-up date in Inner Mongolia, Northern China from 1982 to 2008. We find a significant dampening effect of advanced vegetation growth on spring dust storms (r = 0.49, p = 0.01), with a one-day earlier green-up date corresponding to a decrease in annual spring dust storm outbreaks by 3%. Moreover, the higher correlation (r = 0.55, p < 0.01) between green-up date and dust storm outbreak ratio (the ratio of dust storm outbreaks to times of strong wind events) indicates that such effect is independent of changes in surface wind. Spatially, a negative correlation is detected between areas with advanced green-up dates and regional annual spring dust storms (r = −0.49, p = 0.01). This new insight is valuable for understanding dust storms dynamics under the changing climate. Our findings suggest that dust storms in Inner Mongolia will be further mitigated by the projected earlier vegetation green-up in the warming world. PMID:25343265

Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, I.T.; Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.

2005-01-01

The highly variable timing of streamflow in snowmelt-dominated basins across western North America is an important consequence, and indicator, of climate fluctuations. Changes in the timing of snowmelt-derived streamflow from 1948 to 2002 were investigated in a network of 302 western North America gauges by examining the center of mass for flow, spring pulse onset dates, and seasonal fractional flows through trend and principal component analyses. Statistical analysis of the streamflow timing measures with Pacific climate indicators identified local and key large-scale processes that govern the regionally coherent parts of the changes and their relative importance. Widespread and regionally coherent trends toward earlier onsets of springtime snowmelt and streamflow have taken place across most of western North America, affecting an area that is much larger than previously recognized. These timing changes have resulted in increasing fractions of annual flow occurring earlier in the water year by 1-4 weeks. The immediate (or proximal) forcings for the spatially coherent parts of the year-to-year fluctuations and longer-term trends of streamflow timing have been higher winter and spring temperatures. Although these temperature changes are partly controlled by the decadal-scale Pacific climate mode [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)], a separate and significant part of the variance is associated with a springtime warming trend that spans the PDO phases. ?? 2005 American Meteorological Society.

Earlier vegetation green-up has reduced spring dust storms.

PubMed

Fan, Bihang; Guo, Li; Li, Ning; Chen, Jin; Lin, Henry; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Shen, Miaogen; Rao, Yuhan; Wang, Cong; Ma, Lei

2014-10-24

The observed decline of spring dust storms in Northeast Asia since the 1950s has been attributed to surface wind stilling. However, spring vegetation growth could also restrain dust storms through accumulating aboveground biomass and increasing surface roughness. To investigate the impacts of vegetation spring growth on dust storms, we examine the relationships between recorded spring dust storm outbreaks and satellite-derived vegetation green-up date in Inner Mongolia, Northern China from 1982 to 2008. We find a significant dampening effect of advanced vegetation growth on spring dust storms (r = 0.49, p = 0.01), with a one-day earlier green-up date corresponding to a decrease in annual spring dust storm outbreaks by 3%. Moreover, the higher correlation (r = 0.55, p < 0.01) between green-up date and dust storm outbreak ratio (the ratio of dust storm outbreaks to times of strong wind events) indicates that such effect is independent of changes in surface wind. Spatially, a negative correlation is detected between areas with advanced green-up dates and regional annual spring dust storms (r = -0.49, p = 0.01). This new insight is valuable for understanding dust storms dynamics under the changing climate. Our findings suggest that dust storms in Inner Mongolia will be further mitigated by the projected earlier vegetation green-up in the warming world.

A revised timescale for human evolution based on ancient mitochondrial genomes

PubMed Central

Johnson, Philip L.F.; Bos, Kirsten; Lari, Martina; Bollongino, Ruth; Sun, Chengkai; Giemsch, Liane; Schmitz, Ralf; Burger, Joachim; Ronchitelli, Anna Maria; Martini, Fabio; Cremonesi, Renata G.; Svoboda, Jiří; Bauer, Peter; Caramelli, David; Castellano, Sergi; Reich, David; Pääbo, Svante; Krause, Johannes

2016-01-01

Summary Background Recent analyses of de novo DNA mutations in modern humans have suggested a nuclear substitution rate that is approximately half that of previous estimates based on fossil calibration. This result has led to suggestions that major events in human evolution occurred far earlier than previously thought. Result Here we use mitochondrial genome sequences from 10 securely dated ancient modern humans spanning 40,000 years as calibration points for the mitochondrial clock, thus yielding a direct estimate of the mitochondrial substitution rate. Our clock yields mitochondrial divergence times that are in agreement with earlier estimates based on calibration points derived from either fossils or archaeological material. In particular, our results imply a separation of non-Africans from the most closely related sub-Saharan African mitochondrial DNAs (haplogroup L3) of less than 62,000-95,000 years ago. Conclusion Though single loci like mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) can only provide biased estimates of population split times, they can provide valid upper bounds; our results exclude most of the older dates for African and non-African split times recently suggested by de novo mutation rate estimates in the nuclear genome. PMID:23523248

A revised timescale for human evolution based on ancient mitochondrial genomes.

PubMed

Fu, Qiaomei; Mittnik, Alissa; Johnson, Philip L F; Bos, Kirsten; Lari, Martina; Bollongino, Ruth; Sun, Chengkai; Giemsch, Liane; Schmitz, Ralf; Burger, Joachim; Ronchitelli, Anna Maria; Martini, Fabio; Cremonesi, Renata G; Svoboda, Jiří; Bauer, Peter; Caramelli, David; Castellano, Sergi; Reich, David; Pääbo, Svante; Krause, Johannes

2013-04-08

Recent analyses of de novo DNA mutations in modern humans have suggested a nuclear substitution rate that is approximately half that of previous estimates based on fossil calibration. This result has led to suggestions that major events in human evolution occurred far earlier than previously thought. Here, we use mitochondrial genome sequences from ten securely dated ancient modern humans spanning 40,000 years as calibration points for the mitochondrial clock, thus yielding a direct estimate of the mitochondrial substitution rate. Our clock yields mitochondrial divergence times that are in agreement with earlier estimates based on calibration points derived from either fossils or archaeological material. In particular, our results imply a separation of non-Africans from the most closely related sub-Saharan African mitochondrial DNAs (haplogroup L3) that occurred less than 62-95 kya. Though single loci like mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) can only provide biased estimates of population divergence times, they can provide valid upper bounds. Our results exclude most of the older dates for African and non-African population divergences recently suggested by de novo mutation rate estimates in the nuclear genome. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Earlier tachycardia onset in right than left mesial temporal lobe seizures.

PubMed

Kato, Kazuhiro; Jin, Kazutaka; Itabashi, Hisashi; Iwasaki, Masaki; Kakisaka, Yosuke; Aoki, Masashi; Nakasato, Nobukazu

2014-10-07

To clarify whether the presence and timing of peri-ictal heart rate (HR) change is a seizure lateralizing sign in patients with mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (mTLE). Long-term video EEGs were retrospectively reviewed in 21 patients, 7 men and 14 women aged 13 to 67 years, diagnosed as mTLE with MRI lesions in the mesial temporal structures (hippocampal sclerosis in 20 cases, amygdala hypertrophy in 1 case). Seventy-seven partial seizures without secondary generalization were extracted. Peri-ictal HR change was compared between 29 right seizures (9 patients) and 48 left seizures (12 patients). HR abruptly increased in all 29 right seizures and 42 of 48 left seizures. Onset time of HR increase in relation to ictal EEG onset was significantly earlier in right seizures than in left seizures (mean ± SD, -11.5 ± 14.8 vs 9.2 ± 21.7 seconds; p < 0.0001). Time of maximum HR was also significantly earlier in right seizures than in left seizures (36.0 ± 18.1 vs 58.0 ± 28.7 seconds; p < 0.0001). Maximum HR changes from baseline showed no significant difference between right and left seizures (47.5 ± 19.1 vs 40.8 ± 20.0/min). Significantly earlier tachycardia in right than left mTLE seizures supports previous hypotheses that the right cerebral hemisphere is dominant in the sympathetic network. No HR change, or delayed tachycardia possibly due to seizure propagation to the right hemisphere, may be a useful lateralizing sign of left mTLE seizures. © 2014 American Academy of Neurology.

Statistical inference for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Brian F. Walters

2012-01-01

Statistical inference requires expression of an estimate in probabilistic terms, usually in the form of a confidence interval. An approach to constructing confidence intervals for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation is illustrated. The approach is based on post-classification methods using two independent forest/non-forest classifications because...

Photo-based estimators for the Nevada photo-based inventory

Treesearch

Paul L. Patterson

2012-01-01

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis Program conducted the Nevada Photo-Based Inventory Pilot in an effort to improve precision in estimates of forest parameters, reduce field data collection costs on margin lands that are covered by slow growing woodland species, and address the potential of strategic-level inventory on...

A fuel-based approach to estimating motor vehicle exhaust emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, Brett Craig

Motor vehicles contribute significantly to air pollution problems; accurate motor vehicle emission inventories are therefore essential to air quality planning. Current travel-based inventory models use emission factors measured from potentially biased vehicle samples and predict fleet-average emissions which are often inconsistent with on-road measurements. This thesis presents a fuel-based inventory approach which uses emission factors derived from remote sensing or tunnel-based measurements of on-road vehicles. Vehicle activity is quantified by statewide monthly fuel sales data resolved to the air basin level. Development of the fuel-based approach includes (1) a method for estimating cold start emission factors, (2) an analysis showing that fuel-normalized emission factors are consistent over a range of positive vehicle loads and that most fuel use occurs during loaded-mode driving, (3) scaling factors relating infrared hydrocarbon measurements to total exhaust volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations, and (4) an analysis showing that economic factors should be considered when selecting on-road sampling sites. The fuel-based approach was applied to estimate carbon monoxide (CO) emissions from warmed-up vehicles in the Los Angeles area in 1991, and CO and VOC exhaust emissions for Los Angeles in 1997. The fuel-based CO estimate for 1991 was higher by a factor of 2.3 +/- 0.5 than emissions predicted by California's MVEI 7F model. Fuel-based inventory estimates for 1997 were higher than those of California's updated MVEI 7G model by factors of 2.4 +/- 0.2 for CO and 3.5 +/- 0.6 for VOC. Fuel-based estimates indicate a 20% decrease in the mass of CO emitted, despite an 8% increase in fuel use between 1991 and 1997; official inventory models predict a 50% decrease in CO mass emissions during the same period. Cold start CO and VOC emission factors derived from parking garage measurements were lower than those predicted by the MVEI 7G model. Current inventories

48 CFR 2452.216-70 - Estimated cost, base fee and award fee.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Estimated cost, base fee... Provisions and Clauses 2452.216-70 Estimated cost, base fee and award fee. As prescribed in 2416.406(e)(1), insert the following clause in all cost-plus-award-fee contracts: Estimated Cost, Base Fee and Award Fee...

48 CFR 2452.216-70 - Estimated cost, base fee and award fee.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Estimated cost, base fee... Provisions and Clauses 2452.216-70 Estimated cost, base fee and award fee. As prescribed in 2416.406(e)(1), insert the following clause in all cost-plus-award-fee contracts: Estimated Cost, Base Fee and Award Fee...

Genetic algorithm-based improved DOA estimation using fourth-order cumulants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Ammar; Tufail, Muhammad

2017-05-01

Genetic algorithm (GA)-based direction of arrival (DOA) estimation is proposed using fourth-order cumulants (FOC) and ESPRIT principle which results in Multiple Invariance Cumulant ESPRIT algorithm. In the existing FOC ESPRIT formulations, only one invariance is utilised to estimate DOAs. The unused multiple invariances (MIs) must be exploited simultaneously in order to improve the estimation accuracy. In this paper, a fitness function based on a carefully designed cumulant matrix is developed which incorporates MIs present in the sensor array. Better DOA estimation can be achieved by minimising this fitness function. Moreover, the effectiveness of Newton's method as well as GA for this optimisation problem has been illustrated. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm provides improved estimation accuracy compared to existing algorithms, especially in the case of low SNR, less number of snapshots, closely spaced sources and high signal and noise correlation. Moreover, it is observed that the optimisation using Newton's method is more likely to converge to false local optima resulting in erroneous results. However, GA-based optimisation has been found attractive due to its global optimisation capability.

Ionospheric Slant Total Electron Content Analysis Using Global Positioning System Based Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Komjathy, Attila (Inventor); Mannucci, Anthony J. (Inventor); Sparks, Lawrence C. (Inventor)

2017-01-01

A method, system, apparatus, and computer program product provide the ability to analyze ionospheric slant total electron content (TEC) using global navigation satellite systems (GNSS)-based estimation. Slant TEC is estimated for a given set of raypath geometries by fitting historical GNSS data to a specified delay model. The accuracy of the specified delay model is estimated by computing delay estimate residuals and plotting a behavior of the delay estimate residuals. An ionospheric threat model is computed based on the specified delay model. Ionospheric grid delays (IGDs) and grid ionospheric vertical errors (GIVEs) are computed based on the ionospheric threat model.

Decay in blood loss estimation skills after web-based didactic training.

PubMed

Toledo, Paloma; Eosakul, Stanley T; Goetz, Kristopher; Wong, Cynthia A; Grobman, William A

2012-02-01

Accuracy in blood loss estimation has been shown to improve immediately after didactic training. The objective of this study was to evaluate retention of blood loss estimation skills 9 months after a didactic web-based training. Forty-four participants were recruited from a cohort that had undergone web-based training and testing in blood loss estimation. The web-based posttraining test, consisting of pictures of simulated blood loss, was repeated 9 months after the initial training and testing. The primary outcome was the difference in accuracy of estimated blood loss (percent error) at 9 months compared with immediately posttraining. At the 9-month follow-up, the median error in estimation worsened to -34.6%. Although better than the pretraining error of -47.8% (P = 0.003), the 9-month error was significantly less accurate than the immediate posttraining error of -13.5% (P = 0.01). Decay in blood loss estimation skills occurs by 9 months after didactic training.

Estimation of single plane unbalance parameters of a rotor-bearing system using Kalman filtering based force estimation technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrivastava, Akash; Mohanty, A. R.

2018-03-01

This paper proposes a model-based method to estimate single plane unbalance parameters (amplitude and phase angle) in a rotor using Kalman filter and recursive least square based input force estimation technique. Kalman filter based input force estimation technique requires state-space model and response measurements. A modified system equivalent reduction expansion process (SEREP) technique is employed to obtain a reduced-order model of the rotor system so that limited response measurements can be used. The method is demonstrated using numerical simulations on a rotor-disk-bearing system. Results are presented for different measurement sets including displacement, velocity, and rotational response. Effects of measurement noise level, filter parameters (process noise covariance and forgetting factor), and modeling error are also presented and it is observed that the unbalance parameter estimation is robust with respect to measurement noise.

Frequency Estimator Performance for a Software-Based Beacon Receiver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zemba, Michael J.; Morse, Jacquelynne Rose; Nessel, James A.; Miranda, Felix

2014-01-01

As propagation terminals have evolved, their design has trended more toward a software-based approach that facilitates convenient adjustment and customization of the receiver algorithms. One potential improvement is the implementation of a frequency estimation algorithm, through which the primary frequency component of the received signal can be estimated with a much greater resolution than with a simple peak search of the FFT spectrum. To select an estimator for usage in a QV-band beacon receiver, analysis of six frequency estimators was conducted to characterize their effectiveness as they relate to beacon receiver design.

Frequency Estimator Performance for a Software-Based Beacon Receiver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zemba, Michael J.; Morse, Jacquelynne R.; Nessel, James A.

2014-01-01

As propagation terminals have evolved, their design has trended more toward a software-based approach that facilitates convenient adjustment and customization of the receiver algorithms. One potential improvement is the implementation of a frequency estimation algorithm, through which the primary frequency component of the received signal can be estimated with a much greater resolution than with a simple peak search of the FFT spectrum. To select an estimator for usage in a Q/V-band beacon receiver, analysis of six frequency estimators was conducted to characterize their effectiveness as they relate to beacon receiver design.

Groundwater Modelling For Recharge Estimation Using Satellite Based Evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soheili, Mahmoud; (Tom) Rientjes, T. H. M.; (Christiaan) van der Tol, C.

2017-04-01

Groundwater movement is influenced by several factors and processes in the hydrological cycle, from which, recharge is of high relevance. Since the amount of aquifer extractable water directly relates to the recharge amount, estimation of recharge is a perquisite of groundwater resources management. Recharge is highly affected by water loss mechanisms the major of which is actual evapotranspiration (ETa). It is, therefore, essential to have detailed assessment of ETa impact on groundwater recharge. The objective of this study was to evaluate how recharge was affected when satellite-based evapotranspiration was used instead of in-situ based ETa in the Salland area, the Netherlands. The Methodology for Interactive Planning for Water Management (MIPWA) model setup which includes a groundwater model for the northern part of the Netherlands was used for recharge estimation. The Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) based actual evapotranspiration maps from Waterschap Groot Salland were also used. Comparison of SEBAL based ETa estimates with in-situ abased estimates in the Netherlands showed that these SEBAL estimates were not reliable. As such results could not serve for calibrating root zone parameters in the CAPSIM model. The annual cumulative ETa map produced by the model showed that the maximum amount of evapotranspiration occurs in mixed forest areas in the northeast and a portion of central parts. Estimates ranged from 579 mm to a minimum of 0 mm in the highest elevated areas with woody vegetation in the southeast of the region. Variations in mean seasonal hydraulic head and groundwater level for each layer showed that the hydraulic gradient follows elevation in the Salland area from southeast (maximum) to northwest (minimum) of the region which depicts the groundwater flow direction. The mean seasonal water balance in CAPSIM part was evaluated to represent recharge estimation in the first layer. The highest recharge estimated flux was for autumn

Developing Scoring Algorithms (Earlier Methods)

Cancer.gov

We developed scoring procedures to convert screener responses to estimates of individual dietary intake for fruits and vegetables, dairy, added sugars, whole grains, fiber, and calcium using the What We Eat in America 24-hour dietary recall data from the 2003-2006 NHANES.

Model-based estimation of individual fitness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Cooch, E.G.; Cam, E.

2002-01-01

Fitness is the currency of natural selection, a measure of the propagation rate of genotypes into future generations. Its various definitions have the common feature that they are functions of survival and fertility rates. At the individual level, the operative level for natural selection, these rates must be understood as latent features, genetically determined propensities existing at birth. This conception of rates requires that individual fitness be defined and estimated by consideration of the individual in a modelled relation to a group of similar individuals; the only alternative is to consider a sample of size one, unless a clone of identical individuals is available. We present hierarchical models describing individual heterogeneity in survival and fertility rates and allowing for associations between these rates at the individual level. We apply these models to an analysis of life histories of Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla ) observed at several colonies on the Brittany coast of France. We compare Bayesian estimation of the population distribution of individual fitness with estimation based on treating individual life histories in isolation, as samples of size one (e.g. McGraw & Caswell, 1996).

Neural Net Gains Estimation Based on an Equivalent Model

PubMed Central

Aguilar Cruz, Karen Alicia; Medel Juárez, José de Jesús; Fernández Muñoz, José Luis; Esmeralda Vigueras Velázquez, Midory

2016-01-01

A model of an Equivalent Artificial Neural Net (EANN) describes the gains set, viewed as parameters in a layer, and this consideration is a reproducible process, applicable to a neuron in a neural net (NN). The EANN helps to estimate the NN gains or parameters, so we propose two methods to determine them. The first considers a fuzzy inference combined with the traditional Kalman filter, obtaining the equivalent model and estimating in a fuzzy sense the gains matrix A and the proper gain K into the traditional filter identification. The second develops a direct estimation in state space, describing an EANN using the expected value and the recursive description of the gains estimation. Finally, a comparison of both descriptions is performed; highlighting the analytical method describes the neural net coefficients in a direct form, whereas the other technique requires selecting into the Knowledge Base (KB) the factors based on the functional error and the reference signal built with the past information of the system. PMID:27366146

Neural Net Gains Estimation Based on an Equivalent Model.

PubMed

Aguilar Cruz, Karen Alicia; Medel Juárez, José de Jesús; Fernández Muñoz, José Luis; Esmeralda Vigueras Velázquez, Midory

2016-01-01

A model of an Equivalent Artificial Neural Net (EANN) describes the gains set, viewed as parameters in a layer, and this consideration is a reproducible process, applicable to a neuron in a neural net (NN). The EANN helps to estimate the NN gains or parameters, so we propose two methods to determine them. The first considers a fuzzy inference combined with the traditional Kalman filter, obtaining the equivalent model and estimating in a fuzzy sense the gains matrix A and the proper gain K into the traditional filter identification. The second develops a direct estimation in state space, describing an EANN using the expected value and the recursive description of the gains estimation. Finally, a comparison of both descriptions is performed; highlighting the analytical method describes the neural net coefficients in a direct form, whereas the other technique requires selecting into the Knowledge Base (KB) the factors based on the functional error and the reference signal built with the past information of the system.

Hemodynamic parameters change earlier than tissue oxygen tension in hemorrhage.

PubMed

Pestel, Gunther J; Fukui, Kimiko; Kimberger, Oliver; Hager, Helmut; Kurz, Andrea; Hiltebrand, Luzius B

2010-05-15

Untreated hypovolemia results in impaired outcome. This study tests our hypothesis whether general hemodynamic parameters detect acute blood loss earlier than monitoring parameters of regional tissue beds. Eight pigs (23-25 kg) were anesthetized and mechanically ventilated. A pulmonary artery catheter and an arterial catheter were inserted. Tissue oxygen tension was measured with Clark-type electrodes in the jejunal and colonic wall, in the liver, and subcutaneously. Jejunal microcirculation was assessed by laser Doppler flowmetry (LDF). Intravascular volume was optimized using difference in pulse pressure (dPP) to keep dPP below 13%. Sixty minutes after preparation, baseline measurements were taken. At first, 5% of total blood volume was withdrawn, followed by another 5% increment, and then in 10% increments until death. After withdrawal of 5% of estimated blood volume, dPP increased from 6.1% +/- 3.0% to 20.8% +/- 2.7% (P < 0.01). Mean arterial pressure (MAP), mean pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) and pulmonary artery occlusion pressure (PAOP) decreased with a blood loss of 10% (P < 0.01). Cardiac output (CO) changed after a blood loss of 20% (P < 0.05). Tissue oxygen tension in central organs, and blood flow in the jejunal muscularis decreased (P < 0.05) after a blood loss of 20%. Tissue oxygen tension in the skin, and jejunal mucosa blood flow decreased (P < 0.05) after a blood loss of 40% and 50%, respectively. In this hemorrhagic pig model systemic hemodynamic parameters were more sensitive to detect acute hypovolemia than tissue oxygen tension measurements or jejunal LDF measurements. Acute blood loss was detected first by dPP. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bias-adjusted satellite-based rainfall estimates for predicting floods: Narayani Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Artan, Guleid A.; Tokar, S.A.; Gautam, D.K.; Bajracharya, S.R.; Shrestha, M.S.

2011-01-01

In Nepal, as the spatial distribution of rain gauges is not sufficient to provide detailed perspective on the highly varied spatial nature of rainfall, satellite-based rainfall estimates provides the opportunity for timely estimation. This paper presents the flood prediction of Narayani Basin at the Devghat hydrometric station (32 000 km2) using bias-adjusted satellite rainfall estimates and the Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM), a spatially distributed, physically based hydrologic model. The GeoSFM with gridded gauge observed rainfall inputs using kriging interpolation from 2003 was used for calibration and 2004 for validation to simulate stream flow with both having a Nash Sutcliff Efficiency of above 0.7. With the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre's rainfall estimates (CPC_RFE2.0), using the same calibrated parameters, for 2003 the model performance deteriorated but improved after recalibration with CPC_RFE2.0 indicating the need to recalibrate the model with satellite-based rainfall estimates. Adjusting the CPC_RFE2.0 by a seasonal, monthly and 7-day moving average ratio, improvement in model performance was achieved. Furthermore, a new gauge-satellite merged rainfall estimates obtained from ingestion of local rain gauge data resulted in significant improvement in flood predictability. The results indicate the applicability of satellite-based rainfall estimates in flood prediction with appropriate bias correction.

Earlier adolescent substance use onset predicts stronger connectivity between reward and cognitive control brain networks.

PubMed

Weissman, David G; Schriber, Roberta A; Fassbender, Catherine; Atherton, Olivia; Krafft, Cynthia; Robins, Richard W; Hastings, Paul D; Guyer, Amanda E

2015-12-01

Early adolescent onset of substance use is a robust predictor of future substance use disorders. We examined the relation between age of substance use initiation and resting state functional connectivity (RSFC) of the core reward processing (nucleus accumbens; NAcc) to cognitive control (prefrontal cortex; PFC) brain networks. Adolescents in a longitudinal study of Mexican-origin youth reported their substance use annually from ages 10 to 16 years. At age 16, 69 adolescents participated in a resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging scan. Seed-based correlational analyses were conducted using regions of interest in bilateral NAcc. The earlier that adolescents initiated substance use, the stronger the connectivity between bilateral NAcc and right dorsolateral PFC, right dorsomedial PFC, right pre-supplementary motor area, right inferior parietal lobule, and left medial temporal gyrus. The regions that demonstrated significant positive linear relationships between the number of adolescent years using substances and connectivity with NAcc are nodes in the right frontoparietal network, which is central to cognitive control. The coupling of reward and cognitive control networks may be a mechanism through which earlier onset of substance use is related to brain function over time, a trajectory that may be implicated in subsequent substance use disorders. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Estimating psychiatric manpower requirements based on patients' needs.

PubMed

Faulkner, L R; Goldman, C R

1997-05-01

To provide a better understanding of the complexities of estimating psychiatric manpower requirements, the authors describe several approaches to estimation and present a method based on patients' needs. A five-step method for psychiatric manpower estimation is used, with estimates of data pertinent to each step, to calculate the total psychiatric manpower requirements for the United States. The method is also used to estimate the hours of psychiatric service per patient per year that might be available under current psychiatric practice and under a managed care scenario. Depending on assumptions about data at each step in the method, the total psychiatric manpower requirements for the U.S. population range from 2,989 to 358,696 full-time-equivalent psychiatrists. The number of available hours of psychiatric service per patient per year is 14.1 hours under current psychiatric practice and 2.8 hours under the managed care scenario. The key to psychiatric manpower estimation lies in clarifying the assumptions that underlie the specific method used. Even small differences in assumptions mean large differences in estimates. Any credible manpower estimation process must include discussions and negotiations between psychiatrists, other clinicians, administrators, and patients and families to clarify the treatment needs of patients and the roles, responsibilities, and job description of psychiatrists.

The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance.

PubMed

Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John; Korenromp, Eline L

2017-01-01

Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco's national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612-37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0-3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000-2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal programmatic screening, which should help update and re

Event-Based Stereo Depth Estimation Using Belief Propagation.

PubMed

Xie, Zhen; Chen, Shengyong; Orchard, Garrick

2017-01-01

Compared to standard frame-based cameras, biologically-inspired event-based sensors capture visual information with low latency and minimal redundancy. These event-based sensors are also far less prone to motion blur than traditional cameras, and still operate effectively in high dynamic range scenes. However, classical framed-based algorithms are not typically suitable for these event-based data and new processing algorithms are required. This paper focuses on the problem of depth estimation from a stereo pair of event-based sensors. A fully event-based stereo depth estimation algorithm which relies on message passing is proposed. The algorithm not only considers the properties of a single event but also uses a Markov Random Field (MRF) to consider the constraints between the nearby events, such as disparity uniqueness and depth continuity. The method is tested on five different scenes and compared to other state-of-art event-based stereo matching methods. The results show that the method detects more stereo matches than other methods, with each match having a higher accuracy. The method can operate in an event-driven manner where depths are reported for individual events as they are received, or the network can be queried at any time to generate a sparse depth frame which represents the current state of the network.

Increasing precision of turbidity-based suspended sediment concentration and load estimates.

PubMed

Jastram, John D; Zipper, Carl E; Zelazny, Lucian W; Hyer, Kenneth E

2010-01-01

Turbidity is an effective tool for estimating and monitoring suspended sediments in aquatic systems. Turbidity can be measured in situ remotely and at fine temporal scales as a surrogate for suspended sediment concentration (SSC), providing opportunity for a more complete record of SSC than is possible with physical sampling approaches. However, there is variability in turbidity-based SSC estimates and in sediment loadings calculated from those estimates. This study investigated the potential to improve turbidity-based SSC, and by extension the resulting sediment loading estimates, by incorporating hydrologic variables that can be monitored remotely and continuously (typically 15-min intervals) into the SSC estimation procedure. On the Roanoke River in southwestern Virginia, hydrologic stage, turbidity, and other water-quality parameters were monitored with in situ instrumentation; suspended sediments were sampled manually during elevated turbidity events; samples were analyzed for SSC and physical properties including particle-size distribution and organic C content; and rainfall was quantified by geologic source area. The study identified physical properties of the suspended-sediment samples that contribute to SSC estimation variance and hydrologic variables that explained variability of those physical properties. Results indicated that the inclusion of any of the measured physical properties in turbidity-based SSC estimation models reduces unexplained variance. Further, the use of hydrologic variables to represent these physical properties, along with turbidity, resulted in a model, relying solely on data collected remotely and continuously, that estimated SSC with less variance than a conventional turbidity-based univariate model, allowing a more precise estimate of sediment loading, Modeling results are consistent with known mechanisms governing sediment transport in hydrologic systems.

Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, E.V.; Lunn, N.J.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2007-01-01

Some of the most pronounced ecological responses to climatic warming are expected to occur in polar marine regions, where temperature increases have been the greatest and sea ice provides a sensitive mechanism by which climatic conditions affect sympagic (i.e., with ice) species. Population-level effects of climatic change, however, remain difficult to quantify. We used a flexible extension of Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture models to estimate population size and survival for polar bears (Ursus maritimus), one of the most ice-dependent of Arctic marine mammals. We analyzed data for polar bears captured from 1984 to 2004 along the western coast of Hudson Bay and in the community of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. The Western Hudson Bay polar bear population declined from 1,194 (95% CI = 1,020-1,368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794-1,076) in 2004. Total apparent survival of prime-adult polar bears (5-19 yr) was stable for females (0.93; 95% CI = 0.91-0.94) and males (0.90; 95% CI = 0.88-0.91). Survival of juvenile, subadult, and senescent-adult polar bears was correlated with spring sea ice breakup date, which was variable among years and occurred approximately 3 weeks earlier in 2004 than in 1984. We propose that this correlation provides evidence for a causal association between earlier sea ice breakup (due to climatic warming) and decreased polar bear survival. It may also explain why Churchill, like other communities along the western coast of Hudson Bay, has experienced an increase in human-polar bear interactions in recent years. Earlier sea ice breakup may have resulted in a larger number of nutritionally stressed polar bears, which are encroaching on human habitations in search of supplemental food. Because western Hudson Bay is near the southern limit of the species' range, our findings may foreshadow the demographic responses and management challenges that more northerly polar bear populations will experience if climatic warming in the Arctic continues as

Hybrid Visible Light and Ultrasound-Based Sensor for Distance Estimation

PubMed Central

Rabadan, Jose; Guerra, Victor; Rodríguez, Rafael; Rufo, Julio; Luna-Rivera, Martin; Perez-Jimenez, Rafael

2017-01-01

Distance estimation plays an important role in location-based services, which has become very popular in recent years. In this paper, a new short range cricket sensor-based approach is proposed for indoor location applications. This solution uses Time Difference of Arrival (TDoA) between an optical and an ultrasound signal which are transmitted simultaneously, to estimate the distance from the base station to the mobile receiver. The measurement of the TDoA at the mobile receiver endpoint is proportional to the distance. The use of optical and ultrasound signals instead of the conventional radio wave signal makes the proposed approach suitable for environments with high levels of electromagnetic interference or where the propagation of radio frequencies is entirely restricted. Furthermore, unlike classical cricket systems, a double-way measurement procedure is introduced, allowing both the base station and mobile node to perform distance estimation simultaneously. PMID:28208584

Brillouin Scattering Spectrum Analysis Based on Auto-Regressive Spectral Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Mengyun; Li, Wei; Liu, Zhangyun; Cheng, Linghao; Guan, Bai-Ou

2018-06-01

Auto-regressive (AR) spectral estimation technology is proposed to analyze the Brillouin scattering spectrum in Brillouin optical time-domain refelectometry. It shows that AR based method can reliably estimate the Brillouin frequency shift with an accuracy much better than fast Fourier transform (FFT) based methods provided the data length is not too short. It enables about 3 times improvement over FFT at a moderate spatial resolution.

Discharging patients earlier in the day: a concept worth evaluating.

PubMed

Kravet, Steven J; Levine, Rachel B; Rubin, Haya R; Wright, Scott M

2007-01-01

Patient discharges from the hospital often occur late in the day and are frequently clustered after 4 PM. When inpatients leave earlier in the day, quality is improved because new admissions awaiting beds are able to leave the emergency department sooner and emergency department waiting room backlog is reduced. Nursing staff, whose work patterns traditionally result in high activity of discharge and admission between 5 PM and 8 PM, benefit by spreading out their work across a longer part of the day. Discharging patients earlier in the day also has the potential to increase patient satisfaction. Despite multiple stakeholders in the discharge planning process, physicians play the most important role. Getting physician buy-in requires an ability to teach physicians about the concept of early-in-the-day discharges and their impact on the process. We defined a new physician-centered discharge planning process and introduced it to an internal medicine team with an identical control team as a comparison. Discharge time of day was analyzed for 1 month. Mean time of day of discharge was 13:39 for the intervention group versus 15:45 for the control group (P<.001). If reproduced successfully, this process could improve quality at an important transition point in patient care.

Breast surface estimation for radar-based breast imaging systems.

PubMed

Williams, Trevor C; Sill, Jeff M; Fear, Elise C

2008-06-01

Radar-based microwave breast-imaging techniques typically require the antennas to be placed at a certain distance from or on the breast surface. This requires prior knowledge of the breast location, shape, and size. The method proposed in this paper for obtaining this information is based on a modified tissue sensing adaptive radar algorithm. First, a breast surface detection scan is performed. Data from this scan are used to localize the breast by creating an estimate of the breast surface. If required, the antennas may then be placed at specified distances from the breast surface for a second tumor-sensing scan. This paper introduces the breast surface estimation and antenna placement algorithms. Surface estimation and antenna placement results are demonstrated on three-dimensional breast models derived from magnetic resonance images.

Earlier warning: a multi-indicator approach to monitoring trends in the illicit use of medicines.

PubMed

Mounteney, Jane; Haugland, Siren

2009-03-01

The availability of medicines on the illicit drug market is currently high on the international policy agenda, linked to adverse health consequences including addiction, drug related overdoses and injection related problems. Continuous surveillance of illicit use of medicines allows for earlier identification and reporting of emerging trends and increased possibilities for earlier intervention to prevent spread of use and drug related harm. This paper aims to identify data sources capable of monitoring the illicit use of medicines; present trend findings for Rohypnol and Subutex using a multi-indicator monitoring approach; and consider the relevance of such models for policy makers. Data collection and analysis were undertaken in Bergen, Norway, using the Bergen Earlier Warning System (BEWS), a multi-indicator drug monitoring system. Data were gathered at six monthly intervals from April 2002 to September 2006. Drug indicator data from seizures, treatment, pharmacy sales, helplines, key informants and media monitoring were triangulated and an aggregated differential was used to plot trends. Results for the 4-year period showed a decline in the illicit use of Rohypnol and an increase in the illicit use of Subutex. Multi-indicator surveillance models can play a strategic role in the earlier identification and reporting of emerging trends in illicit use of medicines.

Bias-adjusted satellite-based rainfall estimates for predicting floods: Narayani Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shrestha, M.S.; Artan, G.A.; Bajracharya, S.R.; Gautam, D.K.; Tokar, S.A.

2011-01-01

In Nepal, as the spatial distribution of rain gauges is not sufficient to provide detailed perspective on the highly varied spatial nature of rainfall, satellite-based rainfall estimates provides the opportunity for timely estimation. This paper presents the flood prediction of Narayani Basin at the Devghat hydrometric station (32000km2) using bias-adjusted satellite rainfall estimates and the Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM), a spatially distributed, physically based hydrologic model. The GeoSFM with gridded gauge observed rainfall inputs using kriging interpolation from 2003 was used for calibration and 2004 for validation to simulate stream flow with both having a Nash Sutcliff Efficiency of above 0.7. With the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre's rainfall estimates (CPC-RFE2.0), using the same calibrated parameters, for 2003 the model performance deteriorated but improved after recalibration with CPC-RFE2.0 indicating the need to recalibrate the model with satellite-based rainfall estimates. Adjusting the CPC-RFE2.0 by a seasonal, monthly and 7-day moving average ratio, improvement in model performance was achieved. Furthermore, a new gauge-satellite merged rainfall estimates obtained from ingestion of local rain gauge data resulted in significant improvement in flood predictability. The results indicate the applicability of satellite-based rainfall estimates in flood prediction with appropriate bias correction. ?? 2011 The Authors. Journal of Flood Risk Management ?? 2011 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management.

Cost-Effectiveness of Earlier Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy for Uninsured HIV-Infected Adults

PubMed Central

Schackman, Bruce R.; Goldie, Sue J.; Weinstein, Milton C.; Losina, Elena; Zhang, Hong; Freedberg, Kenneth A.

2001-01-01

Objectives. This study was designed to examine the societal cost-effectiveness and the impact on government payers of earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy for uninsured HIV-infected adults. Methods. A state-transition simulation model of HIV disease was used. Data were derived from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, published randomized trials, and medical care cost estimates for all government payers and for Massachusetts, New York, and Florida. Results. Quality-adjusted life expectancy increased from 7.64 years with therapy initiated at 200 CD4 cells/μL to 8.21 years with therapy initiated at 500 CD4 cells/μL. Initiating therapy at 500 CD4/μL was a more efficient use of resources than initiating therapy at 200 CD4/μL and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $17 300 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, compared with no therapy. Costs to state payers in the first 5 years ranged from $5500 to $24 900 because of differences among the states in the availability of federal funds for AIDS drug assistance programs. Conclusions. Antiretroviral therapy initiated at 500 CD4 cells/μL is cost-effective from a societal perspective compared with therapy initiated later. States should consider Medicaid waivers to expand access to early therapy. PMID:11527782

Uncertainty estimation for map-based analyses

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Mark A. Hatfield; Susan J. Crocker

2010-01-01

Traditionally, natural resource managers have asked the question, “How much?” and have received sample-based estimates of resource totals or means. Increasingly, however, the same managers are now asking the additional question, “Where?” and are expecting spatially explicit answers in the form of maps. Recent development of natural resource databases, access to...

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

PubMed Central

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

Estimating Soil Hydraulic Parameters using Gradient Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, P. K.; Tripathi, S.

2017-12-01

The conventional way of estimating parameters of a differential equation is to minimize the error between the observations and their estimates. The estimates are produced from forward solution (numerical or analytical) of differential equation assuming a set of parameters. Parameter estimation using the conventional approach requires high computational cost, setting-up of initial and boundary conditions, and formation of difference equations in case the forward solution is obtained numerically. Gaussian process based approaches like Gaussian Process Ordinary Differential Equation (GPODE) and Adaptive Gradient Matching (AGM) have been developed to estimate the parameters of Ordinary Differential Equations without explicitly solving them. Claims have been made that these approaches can straightforwardly be extended to Partial Differential Equations; however, it has been never demonstrated. This study extends AGM approach to PDEs and applies it for estimating parameters of Richards equation. Unlike the conventional approach, the AGM approach does not require setting-up of initial and boundary conditions explicitly, which is often difficult in real world application of Richards equation. The developed methodology was applied to synthetic soil moisture data. It was seen that the proposed methodology can estimate the soil hydraulic parameters correctly and can be a potential alternative to the conventional method.

Model-based estimation of individual fitness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Cooch, E.G.; Cam, E.

2002-01-01

Fitness is the currency of natural selection, a measure of the propagation rate of genotypes into future generations. Its various definitions have the common feature that they are functions of survival and fertility rates. At the individual level, the operative level for natural selection, these rates must be understood as latent features, genetically determined propensities existing at birth. This conception of rates requires that individual fitness be defined and estimated by consideration of the individual in a modelled relation to a group of similar individuals; the only alternative is to consider a sample of size one, unless a clone of identical individuals is available. We present hierarchical models describing individual heterogeneity in survival and fertility rates and allowing for associations between these rates at the individual level. We apply these models to an analysis of life histories of Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) observed at several colonies on the Brittany coast of France. We compare Bayesian estimation of the population distribution of individual fitness with estimation based on treating individual life histories in isolation, as samples of size one (e.g. McGraw and Caswell, 1996).

ON ESTIMATING FORCE-FREENESS BASED ON OBSERVED MAGNETOGRAMS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, X. M.; Zhang, M.; Su, J. T., E-mail: xmzhang@nao.cas.cn

It is a common practice in the solar physics community to test whether or not measured photospheric or chromospheric vector magnetograms are force-free, using the Maxwell stress as a measure. Some previous studies have suggested that magnetic fields of active regions in the solar chromosphere are close to being force-free whereas there is no consistency among previous studies on whether magnetic fields of active regions in the solar photosphere are force-free or not. Here we use three kinds of representative magnetic fields (analytical force-free solutions, modeled solar-like force-free fields, and observed non-force-free fields) to discuss how measurement issues such asmore » limited field of view (FOV), instrument sensitivity, and measurement error could affect the estimation of force-freeness based on observed magnetograms. Unlike previous studies that focus on discussing the effect of limited FOV or instrument sensitivity, our calculation shows that just measurement error alone can significantly influence the results of estimates of force-freeness, due to the fact that measurement errors in horizontal magnetic fields are usually ten times larger than those in vertical fields. This property of measurement errors, interacting with the particular form of a formula for estimating force-freeness, would result in wrong judgments of the force-freeness: a truly force-free field may be mistakenly estimated as being non-force-free and a truly non-force-free field may be estimated as being force-free. Our analysis calls for caution when interpreting estimates of force-freeness based on measured magnetograms, and also suggests that the true photospheric magnetic field may be further away from being force-free than it currently appears to be.« less

Arterial stiffness estimation based photoplethysmographic pulse wave analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huotari, Matti; Maatta, Kari; Kostamovaara, Juha

2010-11-01

Arterial stiffness is one of the indices of vascular healthiness. It is based on pulse wave analysis. In the case we decompose the pulse waveform for the estimation and determination of arterial elasticity. Firstly, optically measured with photoplethysmograph and then investigating means by four lognormal pulse waveforms for which we can find very good fit between the original and summed decomposed pulse wave. Several studies have demonstrated that these kinds of measures predict cardiovascular events. While dynamic factors, e.g., arterial stiffness, depend on fixed structural features of the vascular wall. Arterial stiffness is estimated based on pulse wave decomposition analysis in the radial and tibial arteries. Elucidation of the precise relationship between endothelial function and vascular stiffness awaits still further study.

Statistical properties of Fourier-based time-lag estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Epitropakis, A.; Papadakis, I. E.

2016-06-01

Context. The study of X-ray time-lag spectra in active galactic nuclei (AGN) is currently an active research area, since it has the potential to illuminate the physics and geometry of the innermost region (I.e. close to the putative super-massive black hole) in these objects. To obtain reliable information from these studies, the statistical properties of time-lags estimated from data must be known as accurately as possible. Aims: We investigated the statistical properties of Fourier-based time-lag estimates (I.e. based on the cross-periodogram), using evenly sampled time series with no missing points. Our aim is to provide practical "guidelines" on estimating time-lags that are minimally biased (I.e. whose mean is close to their intrinsic value) and have known errors. Methods: Our investigation is based on both analytical work and extensive numerical simulations. The latter consisted of generating artificial time series with various signal-to-noise ratios and sampling patterns/durations similar to those offered by AGN observations with present and past X-ray satellites. We also considered a range of different model time-lag spectra commonly assumed in X-ray analyses of compact accreting systems. Results: Discrete sampling, binning and finite light curve duration cause the mean of the time-lag estimates to have a smaller magnitude than their intrinsic values. Smoothing (I.e. binning over consecutive frequencies) of the cross-periodogram can add extra bias at low frequencies. The use of light curves with low signal-to-noise ratio reduces the intrinsic coherence, and can introduce a bias to the sample coherence, time-lag estimates, and their predicted error. Conclusions: Our results have direct implications for X-ray time-lag studies in AGN, but can also be applied to similar studies in other research fields. We find that: a) time-lags should be estimated at frequencies lower than ≈ 1/2 the Nyquist frequency to minimise the effects of discrete binning of the

Channel estimation based on quantized MMP for FDD massive MIMO downlink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yao-ting; Wang, Bing-he; Qu, Yi; Cai, Hua-jie

2016-10-01

In this paper, we consider channel estimation for Massive MIMO systems operating in frequency division duplexing mode. By exploiting the sparsity of propagation paths in Massive MIMO channel, we develop a compressed sensing(CS) based channel estimator which can reduce the pilot overhead. As compared with the conventional least squares (LS) and linear minimum mean square error(LMMSE) estimation, the proposed algorithm is based on the quantized multipath matching pursuit - MMP - reduced the pilot overhead and performs better than other CS algorithms. The simulation results demonstrate the advantage of the proposed algorithm over various existing methods including the LS, LMMSE, CoSaMP and conventional MMP estimators.

Temporal validation for landsat-based volume estimation model

Treesearch

Renaldo J. Arroyo; Emily B. Schultz; Thomas G. Matney; David L. Evans; Zhaofei Fan

2015-01-01

Satellite imagery can potentially reduce the costs and time associated with ground-based forest inventories; however, for satellite imagery to provide reliable forest inventory data, it must produce consistent results from one time period to the next. The objective of this study was to temporally validate a Landsat-based volume estimation model in a four county study...

Index cost estimate based BIM method - Computational example for sports fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zima, Krzysztof

2017-07-01

The paper presents an example ofcost estimation in the early phase of the project. The fragment of relative database containing solution, descriptions, geometry of construction object and unit cost of sports facilities was shown. The Index Cost Estimate Based BIM method calculationswith use of Case Based Reasoning were presented, too. The article presentslocal and global similarity measurement and example of BIM based quantity takeoff process. The outcome of cost calculations based on CBR method was presented as a final result of calculations.

Neuromorphic Event-Based 3D Pose Estimation

PubMed Central

Reverter Valeiras, David; Orchard, Garrick; Ieng, Sio-Hoi; Benosman, Ryad B.

2016-01-01

Pose estimation is a fundamental step in many artificial vision tasks. It consists of estimating the 3D pose of an object with respect to a camera from the object's 2D projection. Current state of the art implementations operate on images. These implementations are computationally expensive, especially for real-time applications. Scenes with fast dynamics exceeding 30–60 Hz can rarely be processed in real-time using conventional hardware. This paper presents a new method for event-based 3D object pose estimation, making full use of the high temporal resolution (1 μs) of asynchronous visual events output from a single neuromorphic camera. Given an initial estimate of the pose, each incoming event is used to update the pose by combining both 3D and 2D criteria. We show that the asynchronous high temporal resolution of the neuromorphic camera allows us to solve the problem in an incremental manner, achieving real-time performance at an update rate of several hundreds kHz on a conventional laptop. We show that the high temporal resolution of neuromorphic cameras is a key feature for performing accurate pose estimation. Experiments are provided showing the performance of the algorithm on real data, including fast moving objects, occlusions, and cases where the neuromorphic camera and the object are both in motion. PMID:26834547

Campbell's Rule for Estimating Entropy Changes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jensen, William B.

2004-01-01

Campbell's rule for estimating entropy changes is discussed in relation to an earlier article by Norman Craig, where it was proposed that the approximate value of the entropy of reaction was related to net moles of gas consumed or generated. It was seen that the average for Campbell's data set was lower than that for Craig's data set and…

Vision-Based Position Estimation Utilizing an Extended Kalman Filter

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

POSITION ESTIMATION UTILIZING AN EXTENDED KALMAN FILTER by Joseph B. Testa III December 2016 Thesis Advisor: Vladimir Dobrokhodov Co...TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE VISION-BASED POSITION ESTIMATION UTILIZING AN EXTENDED KALMAN FILTER 5. FUNDING...spots” and network relay between the boarding team and ship. 14. SUBJECT TERMS UAV, ROS, extended Kalman filter , Matlab

A robust vision-based sensor fusion approach for real-time pose estimation.

PubMed

Assa, Akbar; Janabi-Sharifi, Farrokh

2014-02-01

Object pose estimation is of great importance to many applications, such as augmented reality, localization and mapping, motion capture, and visual servoing. Although many approaches based on a monocular camera have been proposed, only a few works have concentrated on applying multicamera sensor fusion techniques to pose estimation. Higher accuracy and enhanced robustness toward sensor defects or failures are some of the advantages of these schemes. This paper presents a new Kalman-based sensor fusion approach for pose estimation that offers higher accuracy and precision, and is robust to camera motion and image occlusion, compared to its predecessors. Extensive experiments are conducted to validate the superiority of this fusion method over currently employed vision-based pose estimation algorithms.

Estimating the Entropy of Binary Time Series: Methodology, Some Theory and a Simulation Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Yun; Kontoyiannis, Ioannis; Bienenstock, Elie

2008-06-01

Partly motivated by entropy-estimation problems in neuroscience, we present a detailed and extensive comparison between some of the most popular and effective entropy estimation methods used in practice: The plug-in method, four different estimators based on the Lempel-Ziv (LZ) family of data compression algorithms, an estimator based on the Context-Tree Weighting (CTW) method, and the renewal entropy estimator. METHODOLOGY: Three new entropy estimators are introduced; two new LZ-based estimators, and the “renewal entropy estimator,” which is tailored to data generated by a binary renewal process. For two of the four LZ-based estimators, a bootstrap procedure is described for evaluating their standard error, and a practical rule of thumb is heuristically derived for selecting the values of their parameters in practice. THEORY: We prove that, unlike their earlier versions, the two new LZ-based estimators are universally consistent, that is, they converge to the entropy rate for every finite-valued, stationary and ergodic process. An effective method is derived for the accurate approximation of the entropy rate of a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM) with known distribution. Heuristic calculations are presented and approximate formulas are derived for evaluating the bias and the standard error of each estimator. SIMULATION: All estimators are applied to a wide range of data generated by numerous different processes with varying degrees of dependence and memory. The main conclusions drawn from these experiments include: (i) For all estimators considered, the main source of error is the bias. (ii) The CTW method is repeatedly and consistently seen to provide the most accurate results. (iii) The performance of the LZ-based estimators is often comparable to that of the plug-in method. (iv) The main drawback of the plug-in method is its computational inefficiency; with small word-lengths it fails to detect longer-range structure in the data, and with longer word

Concurrent estimates of carbon export reveal physical biases in ΔO2/Ar-based net community production estimates in the Southern California Bight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haskell, William Z.; Fleming, John C.

2018-07-01

Net community production (NCP) represents the amount of biologically-produced organic carbon that is available to be exported out of the surface ocean and is typically estimated using measurements of the O2/Ar ratio in the surface mixed layer under the assumption of negligible vertical transport. However, physical processes can significantly bias NCP estimates based on this in-situ tracer. It is actively debated whether discrepancies between O2/Ar-based NCP and carbon export estimates are due to differences in the location of biological production and export, or the result of physical biases. In this study, we calculate export production across the euphotic depth during two months of upwelling in Southern California in 2014, based on an estimate of the consumption rate of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and the dissolved: total organic carbon consumption ratio below the euphotic depth. This estimate equals the concurrent O2/Ar-based NCP estimates over the same period that are corrected for physical biases, but is significantly different than NCP estimated without a correction for vertical transport. This comparison demonstrates that concurrent physical transport estimates would significantly improve O2/Ar-based estimates of NCP, particularly in settings with vertical advection. Potential approaches to mitigate this bias are discussed.

A switched systems approach to image-based estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parikh, Anup

With the advent of technological improvements in imaging systems and computational resources, as well as the development of image-based reconstruction techniques, it is necessary to understand algorithm performance when subject to real world conditions. Specifically, this dissertation focuses on the stability and performance of a class of image-based observers in the presence of intermittent measurements, caused by e.g., occlusions, limited FOV, feature tracking losses, communication losses, or finite frame rates. Observers or filters that are exponentially stable under persistent observability may have unbounded error growth during intermittent sensing, even while providing seemingly accurate state estimates. In Chapter 3, dwell time conditions are developed to guarantee state estimation error convergence to an ultimate bound for a class of observers while undergoing measurement loss. Bounds are developed on the unstable growth of the estimation errors during the periods when the object being tracked is not visible. A Lyapunov-based analysis for the switched system is performed to develop an inequality in terms of the duration of time the observer can view the moving object and the duration of time the object is out of the field of view. In Chapter 4, a motion model is used to predict the evolution of the states of the system while the object is not visible. This reduces the growth rate of the bounding function to an exponential and enables the use of traditional switched systems Lyapunov analysis techniques. The stability analysis results in an average dwell time condition to guarantee state error convergence with a known decay rate. In comparison with the results in Chapter 3, the estimation errors converge to zero rather than a ball, with relaxed switching conditions, at the cost of requiring additional information about the motion of the feature. In some applications, a motion model of the object may not be available. Numerous adaptive techniques have been

Estimation of Muscle Force Based on Neural Drive in a Hemispheric Stroke Survivor.

PubMed

Dai, Chenyun; Zheng, Yang; Hu, Xiaogang

2018-01-01

Robotic assistant-based therapy holds great promise to improve the functional recovery of stroke survivors. Numerous neural-machine interface techniques have been used to decode the intended movement to control robotic systems for rehabilitation therapies. In this case report, we tested the feasibility of estimating finger extensor muscle forces of a stroke survivor, based on the decoded descending neural drive through population motoneuron discharge timings. Motoneuron discharge events were obtained by decomposing high-density surface electromyogram (sEMG) signals of the finger extensor muscle. The neural drive was extracted from the normalized frequency of the composite discharge of the motoneuron pool. The neural-drive-based estimation was also compared with the classic myoelectric-based estimation. Our results showed that the neural-drive-based approach can better predict the force output, quantified by lower estimation errors and higher correlations with the muscle force, compared with the myoelectric-based estimation. Our findings suggest that the neural-drive-based approach can potentially be used as a more robust interface signal for robotic therapies during the stroke rehabilitation.

Lunar base scenario cost estimates: Lunar base systems study task 6.1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

The projected development and production costs of each of the Lunar Base's systems are described and unit costs are estimated for transporting the systems to the lunar surface and for setting up the system.

Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; D. R. Brillinger; R. E. Burgan; John Benoit

2004-01-01

We present a probability-based model for estimating fire risk. Risk is defined using three probabilities: the probability of fire occurrence; the conditional probability of a large fire given ignition; and the unconditional probability of a large fire. The model is based on grouped data at the 1 km²-day cell level. We fit a spatially and temporally explicit non-...

Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.

Convex-hull mass estimates of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus): application of a CT-based mass estimation technique

PubMed Central

O’Mahoney, Thomas G.; Kitchener, Andrew C.; Manning, Phillip L.; Sellers, William I.

2016-01-01

The external appearance of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus, Linnaeus, 1758) has been a source of considerable intrigue, as contemporaneous accounts or depictions are rare. The body mass of the dodo has been particularly contentious, with the flightless pigeon alternatively reconstructed as slim or fat depending upon the skeletal metric used as the basis for mass prediction. Resolving this dichotomy and obtaining a reliable estimate for mass is essential before future analyses regarding dodo life history, physiology or biomechanics can be conducted. Previous mass estimates of the dodo have relied upon predictive equations based upon hind limb dimensions of extant pigeons. Yet the hind limb proportions of dodo have been found to differ considerably from those of their modern relatives, particularly with regards to midshaft diameter. Therefore, application of predictive equations to unusually robust fossil skeletal elements may bias mass estimates. We present a whole-body computed tomography (CT) -based mass estimation technique for application to the dodo. We generate 3D volumetric renders of the articulated skeletons of 20 species of extant pigeons, and wrap minimum-fit ‘convex hulls’ around their bony extremities. Convex hull volume is subsequently regressed against mass to generate predictive models based upon whole skeletons. Our best-performing predictive model is characterized by high correlation coefficients and low mean squared error (a = − 2.31, b = 0.90, r2 = 0.97, MSE = 0.0046). When applied to articulated composite skeletons of the dodo (National Museums Scotland, NMS.Z.1993.13; Natural History Museum, NHMUK A.9040 and S/1988.50.1), we estimate eviscerated body masses of 8–10.8 kg. When accounting for missing soft tissues, this may equate to live masses of 10.6–14.3 kg. Mass predictions presented here overlap at the lower end of those previously published, and support recent suggestions of a relatively slim dodo. CT-based reconstructions provide a

A New Method for Estimating the Effective Population Size from Allele Frequency Changes

PubMed Central

Pollak, Edward

1983-01-01

A new procedure is proposed for estimating the effective population size, given that information is available on changes in frequencies of the alleles at one or more independently segregating loci and the population is observed at two or more separate times. Approximate expressions are obtained for the variances of the new statistic, as well as others, also based on allele frequency changes, that have been discussed in the literature. This analysis indicates that the new statistic will generally have a smaller variance than the others. Estimates of effective population sizes and of the standard errors of the estimates are computed for data on two fly populations that have been discussed in earlier papers. In both cases, there is evidence that the effective population size is very much smaller than the minimum census size of the population. PMID:17246147

Principal axes estimation using the vibration modes of physics-based deformable models.

PubMed

Krinidis, Stelios; Chatzis, Vassilios

2008-06-01

This paper addresses the issue of accurate, effective, computationally efficient, fast, and fully automated 2-D object orientation and scaling factor estimation. The object orientation is calculated using object principal axes estimation. The approach relies on the object's frequency-based features. The frequency-based features used by the proposed technique are extracted by a 2-D physics-based deformable model that parameterizes the objects shape. The method was evaluated on synthetic and real images. The experimental results demonstrate the accuracy of the method, both in orientation and the scaling estimations.

A Novel Rules Based Approach for Estimating Software Birthmark

PubMed Central

Binti Alias, Norma; Anwar, Sajid

2015-01-01

Software birthmark is a unique quality of software to detect software theft. Comparing birthmarks of software can tell us whether a program or software is a copy of another. Software theft and piracy are rapidly increasing problems of copying, stealing, and misusing the software without proper permission, as mentioned in the desired license agreement. The estimation of birthmark can play a key role in understanding the effectiveness of a birthmark. In this paper, a new technique is presented to evaluate and estimate software birthmark based on the two most sought-after properties of birthmarks, that is, credibility and resilience. For this purpose, the concept of soft computing such as probabilistic and fuzzy computing has been taken into account and fuzzy logic is used to estimate properties of birthmark. The proposed fuzzy rule based technique is validated through a case study and the results show that the technique is successful in assessing the specified properties of the birthmark, its resilience and credibility. This, in turn, shows how much effort will be required to detect the originality of the software based on its birthmark. PMID:25945363

Earlier Visual N1 Latencies in Expert Video-Game Players: A Temporal Basis of Enhanced Visuospatial Performance?

PubMed Central

Latham, Andrew J.; Patston, Lucy L. M.; Westermann, Christine; Kirk, Ian J.; Tippett, Lynette J.

2013-01-01

Increasing behavioural evidence suggests that expert video game players (VGPs) show enhanced visual attention and visuospatial abilities, but what underlies these enhancements remains unclear. We administered the Poffenberger paradigm with concurrent electroencephalogram (EEG) recording to assess occipital N1 latencies and interhemispheric transfer time (IHTT) in expert VGPs. Participants comprised 15 right-handed male expert VGPs and 16 non-VGP controls matched for age, handedness, IQ and years of education. Expert VGPs began playing before age 10, had a minimum 8 years experience, and maintained playtime of at least 20 hours per week over the last 6 months. Non-VGPs had little-to-no game play experience (maximum 1.5 years). Participants responded to checkerboard stimuli presented to the left and right visual fields while 128-channel EEG was recorded. Expert VGPs responded significantly more quickly than non-VGPs. Expert VGPs also had significantly earlier occipital N1s in direct visual pathways (the hemisphere contralateral to the visual field in which the stimulus was presented). IHTT was calculated by comparing the latencies of occipital N1 components between hemispheres. No significant between-group differences in electrophysiological estimates of IHTT were found. Shorter N1 latencies may enable expert VGPs to discriminate attended visual stimuli significantly earlier than non-VGPs and contribute to faster responding in visual tasks. As successful video-game play requires precise, time pressured, bimanual motor movements in response to complex visual stimuli, which in this sample began during early childhood, these differences may reflect the experience and training involved during the development of video-game expertise, but training studies are needed to test this prediction. PMID:24058667

Earlier visual N1 latencies in expert video-game players: a temporal basis of enhanced visuospatial performance?

PubMed

Latham, Andrew J; Patston, Lucy L M; Westermann, Christine; Kirk, Ian J; Tippett, Lynette J

2013-01-01

Increasing behavioural evidence suggests that expert video game players (VGPs) show enhanced visual attention and visuospatial abilities, but what underlies these enhancements remains unclear. We administered the Poffenberger paradigm with concurrent electroencephalogram (EEG) recording to assess occipital N1 latencies and interhemispheric transfer time (IHTT) in expert VGPs. Participants comprised 15 right-handed male expert VGPs and 16 non-VGP controls matched for age, handedness, IQ and years of education. Expert VGPs began playing before age 10, had a minimum 8 years experience, and maintained playtime of at least 20 hours per week over the last 6 months. Non-VGPs had little-to-no game play experience (maximum 1.5 years). Participants responded to checkerboard stimuli presented to the left and right visual fields while 128-channel EEG was recorded. Expert VGPs responded significantly more quickly than non-VGPs. Expert VGPs also had significantly earlier occipital N1s in direct visual pathways (the hemisphere contralateral to the visual field in which the stimulus was presented). IHTT was calculated by comparing the latencies of occipital N1 components between hemispheres. No significant between-group differences in electrophysiological estimates of IHTT were found. Shorter N1 latencies may enable expert VGPs to discriminate attended visual stimuli significantly earlier than non-VGPs and contribute to faster responding in visual tasks. As successful video-game play requires precise, time pressured, bimanual motor movements in response to complex visual stimuli, which in this sample began during early childhood, these differences may reflect the experience and training involved during the development of video-game expertise, but training studies are needed to test this prediction.

Aircraft Engine Thrust Estimator Design Based on GSA-LSSVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Hanlin; Zhang, Tianhong

2017-08-01

In view of the necessity of highly precise and reliable thrust estimator to achieve direct thrust control of aircraft engine, based on support vector regression (SVR), as well as least square support vector machine (LSSVM) and a new optimization algorithm - gravitational search algorithm (GSA), by performing integrated modelling and parameter optimization, a GSA-LSSVM-based thrust estimator design solution is proposed. The results show that compared to particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, GSA can find unknown optimization parameter better and enables the model developed with better prediction and generalization ability. The model can better predict aircraft engine thrust and thus fulfills the need of direct thrust control of aircraft engine.

Age estimation based on aspartic acid racemization in human sclera.

PubMed

Klumb, Karolin; Matzenauer, Christian; Reckert, Alexandra; Lehmann, Klaus; Ritz-Timme, Stefanie

2016-01-01

Age estimation based on racemization of aspartic acid residues (AAR) in permanent proteins has been established in forensic medicine for years. While dentine is the tissue of choice for this molecular method of age estimation, teeth are not always available which leads to the need to identify other suitable tissues. We examined the suitability of total tissue samples of human sclera for the estimation of age at death. Sixty-five samples of scleral tissue were analyzed. The samples were hydrolyzed and after derivatization, the extent of aspartic acid racemization was determined by gas chromatography. The degree of AAR increased with age. In samples from younger individuals, the correlation of age and D-aspartic acid content was closer than in samples from older individuals. The age-dependent racemization in total tissue samples proves that permanent or at least long-living proteins are present in scleral tissue. The correlation of AAR in human sclera and age at death is close enough to serve as basis for age estimation. However, the precision of age estimation by this method is lower than that of age estimation based on the analysis of dentine which is due to molecular inhomogeneities of total tissue samples of sclera. Nevertheless, the approach may serve as a valuable alternative or addition in exceptional cases.

Dictionary-based fiber orientation estimation with improved spatial consistency.

PubMed

Ye, Chuyang; Prince, Jerry L

2018-02-01

Diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI) has enabled in vivo investigation of white matter tracts. Fiber orientation (FO) estimation is a key step in tract reconstruction and has been a popular research topic in dMRI analysis. In particular, the sparsity assumption has been used in conjunction with a dictionary-based framework to achieve reliable FO estimation with a reduced number of gradient directions. Because image noise can have a deleterious effect on the accuracy of FO estimation, previous works have incorporated spatial consistency of FOs in the dictionary-based framework to improve the estimation. However, because FOs are only indirectly determined from the mixture fractions of dictionary atoms and not modeled as variables in the objective function, these methods do not incorporate FO smoothness directly, and their ability to produce smooth FOs could be limited. In this work, we propose an improvement to Fiber Orientation Reconstruction using Neighborhood Information (FORNI), which we call FORNI+; this method estimates FOs in a dictionary-based framework where FO smoothness is better enforced than in FORNI alone. We describe an objective function that explicitly models the actual FOs and the mixture fractions of dictionary atoms. Specifically, it consists of data fidelity between the observed signals and the signals represented by the dictionary, pairwise FO dissimilarity that encourages FO smoothness, and weighted ℓ 1 -norm terms that ensure the consistency between the actual FOs and the FO configuration suggested by the dictionary representation. The FOs and mixture fractions are then jointly estimated by minimizing the objective function using an iterative alternating optimization strategy. FORNI+ was evaluated on a simulation phantom, a physical phantom, and real brain dMRI data. In particular, in the real brain dMRI experiment, we have qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated the reproducibility of the proposed method. Results demonstrate that

An earlier age of breast cancer diagnosis related to more frequent use of antiperspirants/deodorants and underarm shaving.

PubMed

McGrath, K G

2003-12-01

Breast cancer incidence suggests a lifestyle cause. A lifestyle factor used near the breast is the application of antiperspirants/deodorants accompanied by axillary shaving. A previous study did not support a link with breast cancer. If these habits have a role in breast cancer development, women using antiperspirants/deodorants and shaving their underarms frequently would be expected to have an earlier age of diagnosis than those doing so less often. An earlier age of diagnosis would also be expected in those starting to use deodorants and shaving at an earlier age. This is the first study to investigate the intensity of underarm exposure in a cohort of breast cancer survivors. Four hundred and thirty-seven females diagnosed with breast cancer were surveyed. Once grouped by their frequency of underarm hygiene habits, the mean age of diagnosis was the primary end point. Secondary end points included the overall frequency of these habits, and potential usage group confounding variables were evaluated. All statistical tests were two-sided. Frequency and earlier onset of antiperspirant/deodorant usage with underarm shaving were associated with an earlier age of breast cancer diagnosis. Combined habits are likely for this earlier age of diagnosis. In conclusion, underarm shaving with antiperspirant/deodorant use may play a role in breast cancer. It is not clear which of these components are involved. Reviewed literature insinuates absorption of aluminium salts facilitated by dermal barrier disruption. Case-controlled investigations are needed before alternative underarm hygiene habits are suggested.

Childhood hair product use and earlier age at menarche in a racially diverse study population: a pilot study.

PubMed

James-Todd, Tamarra; Terry, Mary Beth; Rich-Edwards, Janet; Deierlein, Andrea; Senie, Ruby

2011-06-01

Previous studies suggest that hair products containing endocrine disrupting chemicals could alter puberty. We evaluated the association between childhood hair product use and age at menarche in a racially diverse study population. We recruited 300 African-American, African-Caribbean, Hispanic, and white women from the New York City metropolitan area who were between 18-77 years of age. Data were collected retrospectively on hair oil, lotion, leave-in conditioner, perm, and other types of hair products used before age 13. Recalled age at menarche ranged from 8 to 19 years. We used multivariable binomial regression to evaluate the association between hair product use and age at menarche (<12 vs. ≥12), adjusting for potential confounders. African-Americans were more likely to use hair products and reached menarche earlier than other racial/ethnic groups. Women reporting childhood hair oil use had a risk ratio of 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-1.9) for earlier menarche, adjusting for race/ethnicity and year of birth. Hair perm users had an increased risk for earlier menarche (adjusted risk ratio = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1-1.8). Other types of hair products assessed in this study were not associated with earlier menarche. Childhood hair oil and perm use were associated with earlier menarche. If replicated, these results suggest that hair product use may be important to measure in evaluating earlier age at menarche. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Coalescent-Based Estimator of Admixture From DNA Sequences

PubMed Central

Wang, Jinliang

2006-01-01

A variety of estimators have been developed to use genetic marker information in inferring the admixture proportions (parental contributions) of a hybrid population. The majority of these estimators used allele frequency data, ignored molecular information that is available in markers such as microsatellites and DNA sequences, and assumed that mutations are absent since the admixture event. As a result, these estimators may fail to deliver an estimate or give rather poor estimates when admixture is ancient and thus mutations are not negligible. A previous molecular estimator based its inference of admixture proportions on the average coalescent times between pairs of genes taken from within and between populations. In this article I propose an estimator that considers the entire genealogy of all of the sampled genes and infers admixture proportions from the numbers of segregating sites in DNA sequence samples. By considering the genealogy of all sequences rather than pairs of sequences, this new estimator also allows the joint estimation of other interesting parameters in the admixture model, such as admixture time, divergence time, population size, and mutation rate. Comparative analyses of simulated data indicate that the new coalescent estimator generally yields better estimates of admixture proportions than the previous molecular estimator, especially when the parental populations are not highly differentiated. It also gives reasonably accurate estimates of other admixture parameters. A human mtDNA sequence data set was analyzed to demonstrate the method, and the analysis results are discussed and compared with those from previous studies. PMID:16624918

Kalman filter-based EM-optical sensor fusion for needle deflection estimation.

PubMed

Jiang, Baichuan; Gao, Wenpeng; Kacher, Daniel; Nevo, Erez; Fetics, Barry; Lee, Thomas C; Jayender, Jagadeesan

2018-04-01

In many clinical procedures such as cryoablation that involves needle insertion, accurate placement of the needle's tip at the desired target is the major issue for optimizing the treatment and minimizing damage to the neighboring anatomy. However, due to the interaction force between the needle and tissue, considerable error in intraoperative tracking of the needle tip can be observed as needle deflects. In this paper, measurements data from an optical sensor at the needle base and a magnetic resonance (MR) gradient field-driven electromagnetic (EM) sensor placed 10 cm from the needle tip are used within a model-integrated Kalman filter-based sensor fusion scheme. Bending model-based estimations and EM-based direct estimation are used as the measurement vectors in the Kalman filter, thus establishing an online estimation approach. Static tip bending experiments show that the fusion method can reduce the mean error of the tip position estimation from 29.23 mm of the optical sensor-based approach to 3.15 mm of the fusion-based approach and from 39.96 to 6.90 mm, at the MRI isocenter and the MRI entrance, respectively. This work established a novel sensor fusion scheme that incorporates model information, which enables real-time tracking of needle deflection with MRI compatibility, in a free-hand operating setup.

Estimating the variance for heterogeneity in arm-based network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Piepho, Hans-Peter; Madden, Laurence V; Roger, James; Payne, Roger; Williams, Emlyn R

2018-04-19

Network meta-analysis can be implemented by using arm-based or contrast-based models. Here we focus on arm-based models and fit them using generalized linear mixed model procedures. Full maximum likelihood (ML) estimation leads to biased trial-by-treatment interaction variance estimates for heterogeneity. Thus, our objective is to investigate alternative approaches to variance estimation that reduce bias compared with full ML. Specifically, we use penalized quasi-likelihood/pseudo-likelihood and hierarchical (h) likelihood approaches. In addition, we consider a novel model modification that yields estimators akin to the residual maximum likelihood estimator for linear mixed models. The proposed methods are compared by simulation, and 2 real datasets are used for illustration. Simulations show that penalized quasi-likelihood/pseudo-likelihood and h-likelihood reduce bias and yield satisfactory coverage rates. Sum-to-zero restriction and baseline contrasts for random trial-by-treatment interaction effects, as well as a residual ML-like adjustment, also reduce bias compared with an unconstrained model when ML is used, but coverage rates are not quite as good. Penalized quasi-likelihood/pseudo-likelihood and h-likelihood are therefore recommended. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Limitation of Ground-based Estimates of Solar Irradiance Due to Atmospheric Variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wen, Guoyong; Cahalan, Robert F.; Holben, Brent N.

2003-01-01

The uncertainty in ground-based estimates of solar irradiance is quantitatively related to the temporal variability of the atmosphere's optical thickness. The upper and lower bounds of the accuracy of estimates using the Langley Plot technique are proportional to the standard deviation of aerosol optical thickness (approx. +/- 13 sigma(delta tau)). The estimates of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) in two Cimel sun photometer channels from the Mauna Loa site of AERONET are compared with satellite observations from SOLSTICE (Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment) on UARS (Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite) for almost two years of data. The true solar variations related to the 27-day solar rotation cycle observed from SOLSTICE are about 0.15% at the two sun photometer channels. The variability in ground-based estimates is statistically one order of magnitude larger. Even though about 30% of these estimates from all Level 2.0 Cimel data fall within the 0.4 to approx. 0.5% variation level, ground-based estimates are not able to capture the 27-day solar variation observed from SOLSTICE.

A model-based approach to estimating forest area

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts

2006-01-01

A logistic regression model based on forest inventory plot data and transformations of Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery was used to predict the probability of forest for 15 study areas in Indiana, USA, and 15 in Minnesota, USA. Within each study area, model-based estimates of forest area were obtained for circular areas with radii of 5 km, 10 km, and 15 km and...

Sleep Quality Estimation based on Chaos Analysis for Heart Rate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukuda, Toshio; Wakuda, Yuki; Hasegawa, Yasuhisa; Arai, Fumihito; Kawaguchi, Mitsuo; Noda, Akiko

In this paper, we propose an algorithm to estimate sleep quality based on a heart rate variability using chaos analysis. Polysomnography(PSG) is a conventional and reliable system to diagnose sleep disorder and to evaluate its severity and therapeatic effect, by estimating sleep quality based on multiple channels. However, a recording process requires a lot of time and a controlled environment for measurement and then an analyzing process of PSG data is hard work because the huge sensed data should be manually evaluated. On the other hand, it is focused that some people make a mistake or cause an accident due to lost of regular sleep and of homeostasis these days. Therefore a simple home system for checking own sleep is required and then the estimation algorithm for the system should be developed. Therefore we propose an algorithm to estimate sleep quality based only on a heart rate variability which can be measured by a simple sensor such as a pressure sensor and an infrared sensor in an uncontrolled environment, by experimentally finding the relationship between chaos indices and sleep quality. The system including the estimation algorithm can inform patterns and quality of own daily sleep to a user, and then the user can previously arranges his life schedule, pays more attention based on sleep results and consult with a doctor.

Optimal Tuner Selection for Kalman-Filter-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Garg, Sanjay

2011-01-01

An emerging approach in the field of aircraft engine controls and system health management is the inclusion of real-time, onboard models for the inflight estimation of engine performance variations. This technology, typically based on Kalman-filter concepts, enables the estimation of unmeasured engine performance parameters that can be directly utilized by controls, prognostics, and health-management applications. A challenge that complicates this practice is the fact that an aircraft engine s performance is affected by its level of degradation, generally described in terms of unmeasurable health parameters such as efficiencies and flow capacities related to each major engine module. Through Kalman-filter-based estimation techniques, the level of engine performance degradation can be estimated, given that there are at least as many sensors as health parameters to be estimated. However, in an aircraft engine, the number of sensors available is typically less than the number of health parameters, presenting an under-determined estimation problem. A common approach to address this shortcoming is to estimate a subset of the health parameters, referred to as model tuning parameters. The problem/objective is to optimally select the model tuning parameters to minimize Kalman-filterbased estimation error. A tuner selection technique has been developed that specifically addresses the under-determined estimation problem, where there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. A systematic approach is applied to produce a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. Tuning parameter selection is performed using a multi-variable iterative search routine that seeks to minimize the theoretical mean-squared estimation error of the Kalman filter. This approach can significantly reduce the error in onboard aircraft engine parameter estimation

Rectal temperature-based death time estimation in infants.

PubMed

Igari, Yui; Hosokai, Yoshiyuki; Funayama, Masato

2016-03-01

In determining the time of death in infants based on rectal temperature, the same methods used in adults are generally used. However, whether the methods for adults are suitable for infants is unclear. In this study, we examined the following 3 methods in 20 infant death cases: computer simulation of rectal temperature based on the infinite cylinder model (Ohno's method), computer-based double exponential approximation based on Marshall and Hoare's double exponential model with Henssge's parameter determination (Henssge's method), and computer-based collinear approximation based on extrapolation of the rectal temperature curve (collinear approximation). The interval between the last time the infant was seen alive and the time that he/she was found dead was defined as the death time interval and compared with the estimated time of death. In Ohno's method, 7 cases were within the death time interval, and the average deviation in the other 12 cases was approximately 80 min. The results of both Henssge's method and collinear approximation were apparently inferior to the results of Ohno's method. The corrective factor was set within the range of 0.7-1.3 in Henssge's method, and a modified program was newly developed to make it possible to change the corrective factors. Modification A, in which the upper limit of the corrective factor range was set as the maximum value in each body weight, produced the best results: 8 cases were within the death time interval, and the average deviation in the other 12 cases was approximately 80min. There was a possibility that the influence of thermal isolation on the actual infants was stronger than that previously shown by Henssge. We conclude that Ohno's method and Modification A are useful for death time estimation in infants. However, it is important to accept the estimated time of death with certain latitude considering other circumstances. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The associations of earlier trauma exposures and history of mental disorders with PTSD after subsequent traumas

PubMed Central

Kessler, Ronald C.; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio; Alonso, Jordi; Bromet, Evelyn J.; Gureje, Oye; Karam, Elie G.; Koenen, Karestan C.; Lee, Sing; Liu, Howard; Pennell, Beth-Ellen; Petukhova, Maria V.; Sampson, Nancy A.; Shahly, Victoria L.; Stein, Dan J.; Atwoli, Lukoye; Borges, Guilherme; Bunting, Brendan; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Gluzman, Semyon; Haro, Josep Maria; Hinkov, Hristo; Kawakami, Norito; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Posada-Villa, Jose; Scott, Kate M.; Shalev, Arieh Y.; Have, Margreet ten; Torres, Yolanda; Viana, Maria Carmen; Zaslavsky, Alan M.

2017-01-01

Although earlier trauma exposure is known to predict post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after subsequent traumas, it is unclear if this association is limited to cases where the earlier trauma led to PTSD. Resolution of this uncertainty has important implications for research on pre-trauma vulnerability to PTSD. We examined this issue in the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys with 34,676 respondents who reported lifetime trauma exposure. One lifetime trauma was selected randomly for each respondent. DSM-IV PTSD due to that trauma was assessed. We reported in a previous paper that four earlier traumas involving interpersonal violence significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas (OR=1.3–2.5). We also assessed 14 lifetime DSM-IV mood, anxiety, disruptive behavior, and substance disorders prior to random traumas. We show in the current report that only prior anxiety disorders significantly predicted PTSD in a multivariate model (OR=1.5–4.3) and that these disorders interacted significantly with three of the earlier traumas (witnessing atrocities, physical violence victimization, rape). History of witnessing atrocities significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas only among respondents with prior PTSD (OR=5.6). Histories of physical violence victimization (OR=1.5) and rape after age 17 (OR=17.6) significantly predicted only among respondents with no history of prior anxiety disorders. Although only preliminary due to reliance on retrospective reports, these results suggest that history of anxiety disorders and history of a limited number of earlier traumas might usefully be targeted in future prospective studies as distinct foci of research on individual differences in vulnerability to PTSD after subsequent traumas. PMID:28924183

The role of experience in location estimation: Target distributions shift location memory biases.

PubMed

Lipinski, John; Simmering, Vanessa R; Johnson, Jeffrey S; Spencer, John P

2010-04-01

Research based on the Category Adjustment model concluded that the spatial distribution of target locations does not influence location estimation responses [Huttenlocher, J., Hedges, L., Corrigan, B., & Crawford, L. E. (2004). Spatial categories and the estimation of location. Cognition, 93, 75-97]. This conflicts with earlier results showing that location estimation is biased relative to the spatial distribution of targets [Spencer, J. P., & Hund, A. M. (2002). Prototypes and particulars: Geometric and experience-dependent spatial categories. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 131, 16-37]. Here, we resolve this controversy by using a task based on Huttenlocher et al. (Experiment 4) with minor modifications to enhance our ability to detect experience-dependent effects. Results after the first block of trials replicate the pattern reported in Huttenlocher et al. After additional experience, however, participants showed biases that significantly shifted according to the target distributions. These results are consistent with the Dynamic Field Theory, an alternative theory of spatial cognition that integrates long-term memory traces across trials relative to the perceived structure of the task space. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Incorporating structure from motion uncertainty into image-based pose estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludington, Ben T.; Brown, Andrew P.; Sheffler, Michael J.; Taylor, Clark N.; Berardi, Stephen

2015-05-01

A method for generating and utilizing structure from motion (SfM) uncertainty estimates within image-based pose estimation is presented. The method is applied to a class of problems in which SfM algorithms are utilized to form a geo-registered reference model of a particular ground area using imagery gathered during flight by a small unmanned aircraft. The model is then used to form camera pose estimates in near real-time from imagery gathered later. The resulting pose estimates can be utilized by any of the other onboard systems (e.g. as a replacement for GPS data) or downstream exploitation systems, e.g., image-based object trackers. However, many of the consumers of pose estimates require an assessment of the pose accuracy. The method for generating the accuracy assessment is presented. First, the uncertainty in the reference model is estimated. Bundle Adjustment (BA) is utilized for model generation. While the high-level approach for generating a covariance matrix of the BA parameters is straightforward, typical computing hardware is not able to support the required operations due to the scale of the optimization problem within BA. Therefore, a series of sparse matrix operations is utilized to form an exact covariance matrix for only the parameters that are needed at a particular moment. Once the uncertainty in the model has been determined, it is used to augment Perspective-n-Point pose estimation algorithms to improve the pose accuracy and to estimate the resulting pose uncertainty. The implementation of the described method is presented along with results including results gathered from flight test data.

SPECTRAL data-based estimation of soil heat flux

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singh, Ramesh K.; Irmak, A.; Walter-Shea, Elizabeth; Verma, S.B.; Suyker, A.E.

2011-01-01

Numerous existing spectral-based soil heat flux (G) models have shown wide variation in performance for maize and soybean cropping systems in Nebraska, indicating the need for localized calibration and model development. The objectives of this article are to develop a semi-empirical model to estimate G from a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and net radiation (Rn) for maize (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) fields in the Great Plains, and present the suitability of the developed model to estimate G under similar and different soil and management conditions. Soil heat fluxes measured in both irrigated and rainfed fields in eastern and south-central Nebraska were used for model development and validation. An exponential model that uses NDVI and Rn was found to be the best to estimate G based on r2 values. The effect of geographic location, crop, and water management practices were used to develop semi-empirical models under four case studies. Each case study has the same exponential model structure but a different set of coefficients and exponents to represent the crop, soil, and management practices. Results showed that the semi-empirical models can be used effectively for G estimation for nearby fields with similar soil properties for independent years, regardless of differences in crop type, crop rotation, and irrigation practices, provided that the crop residue from the previous year is more than 4000 kg ha-1. The coefficients calibrated from particular fields can be used at nearby fields in order to capture temporal variation in G. However, there is a need for further investigation of the models to account for the interaction effects of crop rotation and irrigation. Validation at an independent site having different soil and crop management practices showed the limitation of the semi-empirical model in estimating G under different soil and environment conditions.

Using satellite-based rainfall estimates for streamflow modelling: Bagmati Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shrestha, M.S.; Artan, Guleid A.; Bajracharya, S.R.; Sharma, R. R.

2008-01-01

In this study, we have described a hydrologic modelling system that uses satellite-based rainfall estimates and weather forecast data for the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal. The hydrologic model described is the US Geological Survey (USGS) Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM). The GeoSFM is a spatially semidistributed, physically based hydrologic model. We have used the GeoSFM to estimate the streamflow of the Bagmati Basin at Pandhera Dovan hydrometric station. To determine the hydrologic connectivity, we have used the USGS Hydro1k DEM dataset. The model was forced by daily estimates of rainfall and evapotranspiration derived from weather model data. The rainfall estimates used for the modelling are those produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre and observed at ground rain gauge stations. The model parameters were estimated from globally available soil and land cover datasets – the Digital Soil Map of the World by FAO and the USGS Global Land Cover dataset. The model predicted the daily streamflow at Pandhera Dovan gauging station. The comparison of the simulated and observed flows at Pandhera Dovan showed that the GeoSFM model performed well in simulating the flows of the Bagmati Basin.

Use of streamflow data to estimate base flowground-water recharge for Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, W.A.; Radloff, M.J.; Considine, E.J.; Kennedy, J.L.

2007-01-01

The average annual base flow/recharge was determined for streamflow-gaging stations throughout Wisconsin by base-flow separation. A map of the State was prepared that shows the average annual base flow for the period 1970-99 for watersheds at 118 gaging stations. Trend analysis was performed on 22 of the 118 streamflow-gaging stations that had long-term records, unregulated flow, and provided aerial coverage of the State. The analysis found that a statistically significant increasing trend was occurring for watersheds where the primary land use was agriculture. Most gaging stations where the land cover was forest had no significant trend. A method to estimate the average annual base flow at ungaged sites was developed by multiple-regression analysis using basin characteristics. The equation with the lowest standard error of estimate, 9.5%, has drainage area, soil infiltration and base flow factor as independent variables. To determine the average annual base flow for smaller watersheds, estimates were made at low-flow partial-record stations in 3 of the 12 major river basins in Wisconsin. Regression equations were developed for each of the three major river basins using basin characteristics. Drainage area, soil infiltration, basin storage and base-flow factor were the independent variables in the regression equations with the lowest standard error of estimate. The standard error of estimate ranged from 17% to 52% for the three river basins. ?? 2007 American Water Resources Association.

Diagnosis of varicoceles in men undergoing vasectomy may lead to earlier detection of hypogonadism.

PubMed

Liu, Joceline S; Jones, Madeline; Casey, Jessica T; Fuchs, Amanda B; Cashy, John; Lin, William W

2014-06-01

To determine the temporal relationship between vasectomy, varicocele, and hypogonadism diagnosis. Many young men undergo their first thorough genitourinary examination in their adult lives at the time of vasectomy consultation, providing a unique opportunity for diagnosis of asymptomatic varicoceles. Varicoceles have recently been implicated as a possible reversible contributor to hypogonadism. Hypogonadism may be associated with significant adverse effect, including decreased libido, impaired cognitive function, and increased cardiovascular events. Early diagnosis and treatment of hypogonadism may prevent these adverse sequelae. Data were collected from the Truven Health Analytics MarketScan database, a large outpatient claims database. We reviewed records between 2003 and 2010 for male patients between the ages of 25 and 50 years with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes for hypogonadism, vasectomy, and varicocele, and queried dates of first claim. A total of 15,679 men undergoing vasectomies were matched with 156,790 men with nonvasectomy claims in the same year. Vasectomy patients were diagnosed with varicocele at an earlier age (40.9 vs 42.5 years; P=.009). We identified 224,817 men between the ages of 25 and 50 years with a claim of hypogonadism, of which 5883 (2.6%) also had a claim of varicocele. Men with hypogonadism alone were older at presentation compared with men with an accompanying varicocele (41.3 [standard deviation±6.5] vs 34.9 [standard deviation±6.1]; P<.001). Men undergoing vasectomies are diagnosed with varicoceles at a younger age than age-matched controls. Men with varicoceles present with hypogonadism earlier than men without varicoceles. Earlier diagnosis of varicocele at the time of vasectomy allows for earlier detection of hypogonadism. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the economic value and quality of life impact of earlier influenza vaccination.

PubMed

Lee, Bruce Y; Bartsch, Sarah M; Brown, Shawn T; Cooley, Philip; Wheaton, William D; Zimmerman, Richard K

2015-03-01

Influenza vaccination is administered throughout the influenza disease season, even as late as March. Given such timing, what is the value of vaccinating the population earlier than currently being practiced? We used real data on when individuals were vaccinated in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, and the following 2 models to determine the value of vaccinating individuals earlier (by the end of September, October, and November): Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED), an agent-based model (ABM), and FluEcon, our influenza economic model that translates cases from the ABM to outcomes and costs [health care and lost productivity costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)]. We varied the reproductive number (R0) from 1.2 to 1.6. Applying the current timing of vaccinations averted 223,761 influenza cases, $16.3 million in direct health care costs, $50.0 million in productivity losses, and 804 in QALYs, compared with no vaccination (February peak, R0 1.2). When the population does not have preexisting immunity and the influenza season peaks in February (R0 1.2-1.6), moving individuals who currently received the vaccine after September to the end of September could avert an additional 9634-17,794 influenza cases, $0.6-$1.4 million in direct costs, $2.1-$4.0 million in productivity losses, and 35-64 QALYs. Moving the vaccination of just children to September (R0 1.2-1.6) averted 11,366-1660 influenza cases, $0.6-$0.03 million in direct costs, $2.3-$0.2 million in productivity losses, and 42-8 QALYs. Moving the season peak to December increased these benefits, whereas increasing preexisting immunity reduced these benefits. Even though many people are vaccinated well after September/October, they likely are still vaccinated early enough to provide substantial cost-savings.

Optical Enhancement of Exoskeleton-Based Estimation of Glenohumeral Angles

PubMed Central

Cortés, Camilo; Unzueta, Luis; de los Reyes-Guzmán, Ana; Ruiz, Oscar E.; Flórez, Julián

2016-01-01

In Robot-Assisted Rehabilitation (RAR) the accurate estimation of the patient limb joint angles is critical for assessing therapy efficacy. In RAR, the use of classic motion capture systems (MOCAPs) (e.g., optical and electromagnetic) to estimate the Glenohumeral (GH) joint angles is hindered by the exoskeleton body, which causes occlusions and magnetic disturbances. Moreover, the exoskeleton posture does not accurately reflect limb posture, as their kinematic models differ. To address the said limitations in posture estimation, we propose installing the cameras of an optical marker-based MOCAP in the rehabilitation exoskeleton. Then, the GH joint angles are estimated by combining the estimated marker poses and exoskeleton Forward Kinematics. Such hybrid system prevents problems related to marker occlusions, reduced camera detection volume, and imprecise joint angle estimation due to the kinematic mismatch of the patient and exoskeleton models. This paper presents the formulation, simulation, and accuracy quantification of the proposed method with simulated human movements. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of the method accuracy to marker position estimation errors, due to system calibration errors and marker drifts, has been carried out. The results show that, even with significant errors in the marker position estimation, method accuracy is adequate for RAR. PMID:27403044

Individual differences in rate of encoding predict estimates of visual short-term memory capacity (K).

PubMed

Jannati, Ali; McDonald, John J; Di Lollo, Vincent

2015-06-01

The capacity of visual short-term memory (VSTM) is commonly estimated by K scores obtained with a change-detection task. Contrary to common belief, K may be influenced not only by capacity but also by the rate at which stimuli are encoded into VSTM. Experiment 1 showed that, contrary to earlier conclusions, estimates of VSTM capacity obtained with a change-detection task are constrained by temporal limitations. In Experiment 2, we used change-detection and backward-masking tasks to obtain separate within-subject estimates of K and of rate of encoding, respectively. A median split based on rate of encoding revealed significantly higher K estimates for fast encoders. Moreover, a significant correlation was found between K and the estimated rate of encoding. The present findings raise the prospect that the reported relationships between K and such cognitive concepts as fluid intelligence may be mediated not only by VSTM capacity but also by rate of encoding. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Evaluation and Application of Satellite-Based Latent Heating Profile Estimation Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, William S.; Grecu, Mircea; Yang, Song; Tao, Wei-Kuo

2004-01-01

In recent years, methods for estimating atmospheric latent heating vertical structure from both passive and active microwave remote sensing have matured to the point where quantitative evaluation of these methods is the next logical step. Two approaches for heating algorithm evaluation are proposed: First, application of heating algorithms to synthetic data, based upon cloud-resolving model simulations, can be used to test the internal consistency of heating estimates in the absence of systematic errors in physical assumptions. Second, comparisons of satellite-retrieved vertical heating structures to independent ground-based estimates, such as rawinsonde-derived analyses of heating, provide an additional test. The two approaches are complementary, since systematic errors in heating indicated by the second approach may be confirmed by the first. A passive microwave and combined passive/active microwave heating retrieval algorithm are evaluated using the described approaches. In general, the passive microwave algorithm heating profile estimates are subject to biases due to the limited vertical heating structure information contained in the passive microwave observations. These biases may be partly overcome by including more environment-specific a priori information into the algorithm s database of candidate solution profiles. The combined passive/active microwave algorithm utilizes the much higher-resolution vertical structure information provided by spaceborne radar data to produce less biased estimates; however, the global spatio-temporal sampling by spaceborne radar is limited. In the present study, the passive/active microwave algorithm is used to construct a more physically-consistent and environment-specific set of candidate solution profiles for the passive microwave algorithm and to help evaluate errors in the passive algorithm s heating estimates. Although satellite estimates of latent heating are based upon instantaneous, footprint- scale data, suppression

Contour-based object orientation estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpatov, Boris; Babayan, Pavel

2016-04-01

Real-time object orientation estimation is an actual problem of computer vision nowadays. In this paper we propose an approach to estimate an orientation of objects lacking axial symmetry. Proposed algorithm is intended to estimate orientation of a specific known 3D object, so 3D model is required for learning. The proposed orientation estimation algorithm consists of 2 stages: learning and estimation. Learning stage is devoted to the exploring of studied object. Using 3D model we can gather set of training images by capturing 3D model from viewpoints evenly distributed on a sphere. Sphere points distribution is made by the geosphere principle. It minimizes the training image set. Gathered training image set is used for calculating descriptors, which will be used in the estimation stage of the algorithm. The estimation stage is focusing on matching process between an observed image descriptor and the training image descriptors. The experimental research was performed using a set of images of Airbus A380. The proposed orientation estimation algorithm showed good accuracy (mean error value less than 6°) in all case studies. The real-time performance of the algorithm was also demonstrated.

Supersensitive ancilla-based adaptive quantum phase estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, Walker; Saleh, Bahaa E. A.

2017-10-01

The supersensitivity attained in quantum phase estimation is known to be compromised in the presence of decoherence. This is particularly patent at blind spots—phase values at which sensitivity is totally lost. One remedy is to use a precisely known reference phase to shift the operation point to a less vulnerable phase value. Since this is not always feasible, we present here an alternative approach based on combining the probe with an ancillary degree of freedom containing adjustable parameters to create an entangled quantum state of higher dimension. We validate this concept by simulating a configuration of a Mach-Zehnder interferometer with a two-photon probe and a polarization ancilla of adjustable parameters, entangled at a polarizing beam splitter. At the interferometer output, the photons are measured after an adjustable unitary transformation in the polarization subspace. Through calculation of the Fisher information and simulation of an estimation procedure, we show that optimizing the adjustable polarization parameters using an adaptive measurement process provides globally supersensitive unbiased phase estimates for a range of decoherence levels, without prior information or a reference phase.

Estimation of main diversification time-points of hantaviruses using phylogenetic analyses of complete genomes.

PubMed

Castel, Guillaume; Tordo, Noël; Plyusnin, Alexander

2017-04-02

Because of the great variability of their reservoir hosts, hantaviruses are excellent models to evaluate the dynamics of virus-host co-evolution. Intriguing questions remain about the timescale of the diversification events that influenced this evolution. In this paper we attempted to estimate the first ever timing of hantavirus diversification based on thirty five available complete genomes representing five major groups of hantaviruses and the assumption of co-speciation of hantaviruses with their respective mammal hosts. Phylogenetic analyses were used to estimate the main diversification points during hantavirus evolution in mammals while host diversification was mostly estimated from independent calibrators taken from fossil records. Our results support an earlier developed hypothesis of co-speciation of known hantaviruses with their respective mammal hosts and hence a common ancestor for all hantaviruses carried by placental mammals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance

PubMed Central

Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John

2017-01-01

Background Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco’s national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Methods Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. Results In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612–37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0–3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000–2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Conclusions Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal

Insight Into Illness and Cognition in Schizophrenia in Earlier and Later Life.

PubMed

Gerretsen, Philip; Voineskos, Aristotle N; Graff-Guerrero, Ariel; Menon, Mahesh; Pollock, Bruce G; Mamo, David C; Mulsant, Benoit H; Rajji, Tarek K

2017-04-01

Impaired insight into illness in schizophrenia is associated with illness severity and deficits in premorbid intellectual function, executive function, and memory. A previous study of patients aged 60 years and older found that illness severity and premorbid intellectual function accounted for variance in insight impairment. As such, we aimed to test whether similar relationships would be observed in earlier life. A retrospective analysis was performed on 1 large sample of participants (n = 171) with a DSM-IV-TR diagnosis of schizophrenia aged 19 to 79 years acquired from 2 studies: (1) a psychosocial intervention trial for older persons with schizophrenia (June 2008 to May 2014) and (2) a diffusion tensor imaging and genetics study of psychosis across the life span (February 2007 to December 2013). We assessed insight into illness using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) item G12 and explored its relationship to illness severity (PANSS total modified), premorbid intellectual function (Wechsler Test of Adult Reading [WTAR]), and cognition. Insight impairment was more severe in later life (≥ 60 years) than in earlier years (t = -3.75, P < .001). Across the whole sample, the variance of impaired insight was explained by PANSS total modified (Exp[B] = 1.070, P < .001) and WTAR scores (Exp[B] = 0.970, P = .028). Although age and cognition were correlated with impaired insight, they did not independently contribute to its variance. However, the relationships between impaired insight and illness severity and between impaired insight and cognition, particularly working memory, were stronger in later life than in earlier life. These results suggest an opportunity for intervention may exist with cognitive-enhancing neurostimulation or medications to improve insight into illness in schizophrenia across the life span. Original study registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (identifier: NCT00832845). © Copyright 2017 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

AATSR Based Volcanic Ash Plume Top Height Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virtanen, Timo H.; Kolmonen, Pekka; Sogacheva, Larisa; Sundstrom, Anu-Maija; Rodriguez, Edith; de Leeuw, Gerrit

2015-11-01

The AATSR Correlation Method (ACM) height estimation algorithm is presented. The algorithm uses Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) satellite data to detect volcanic ash plumes and to estimate the plume top height. The height estimate is based on the stereo-viewing capability of the AATSR instrument, which allows to determine the parallax between the satellite's nadir and 55◦ forward views, and thus the corresponding height. AATSR provides an advantage compared to other stereo-view satellite instruments: with AATSR it is possible to detect ash plumes using brightness temperature difference between thermal infrared (TIR) channels centered at 11 and 12 μm. The automatic ash detection makes the algorithm efficient in processing large quantities of data: the height estimate is calculated only for the ash-flagged pixels. Besides ash plumes, the algorithm can be applied to any elevated feature with sufficient contrast to the background, such as smoke and dust plumes and clouds. The ACM algorithm can be applied to the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR), scheduled for launch at the end of 2015.

Radiation-Induced Leukemia at Doses Relevant to Radiation Therapy: Modeling Mechanisms and Estimating Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shuryak, Igor; Sachs, Rainer K.; Hlatky, Lynn; Mark P. Little; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Brenner, David J.

2006-01-01

Because many cancer patients are diagnosed earlier and live longer than in the past, second cancers induced by radiation therapy have become a clinically significant issue. An earlier biologically based model that was designed to estimate risks of high-dose radiation induced solid cancers included initiation of stem cells to a premalignant state, inactivation of stem cells at high radiation doses, and proliferation of stem cells during cellular repopulation after inactivation. This earlier model predicted the risks of solid tumors induced by radiation therapy but overestimated the corresponding leukemia risks. Methods: To extend the model to radiation-induced leukemias, we analyzed in addition to cellular initiation, inactivation, and proliferation a repopulation mechanism specific to the hematopoietic system: long-range migration through the blood stream of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) from distant locations. Parameters for the model were derived from HSC biologic data in the literature and from leukemia risks among atomic bomb survivors v^ ho were subjected to much lower radiation doses. Results: Proliferating HSCs that migrate from sites distant from the high-dose region include few preleukemic HSCs, thus decreasing the high-dose leukemia risk. The extended model for leukemia provides risk estimates that are consistent with epidemiologic data for leukemia risk associated with radiation therapy over a wide dose range. For example, when applied to an earlier case-control study of 110000 women undergoing radiotherapy for uterine cancer, the model predicted an excess relative risk (ERR) of 1.9 for leukemia among women who received a large inhomogeneous fractionated external beam dose to the bone marrow (mean = 14.9 Gy), consistent with the measured ERR (2.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.2 to 6.4; from 3.6 cases expected and 11 cases observed). As a corresponding example for brachytherapy, the predicted ERR of 0.80 among women who received an inhomogeneous low

Fetal QRS detection and heart rate estimation: a wavelet-based approach.

PubMed

Almeida, Rute; Gonçalves, Hernâni; Bernardes, João; Rocha, Ana Paula

2014-08-01

Fetal heart rate monitoring is used for pregnancy surveillance in obstetric units all over the world but in spite of recent advances in analysis methods, there are still inherent technical limitations that bound its contribution to the improvement of perinatal indicators. In this work, a previously published wavelet transform based QRS detector, validated over standard electrocardiogram (ECG) databases, is adapted to fetal QRS detection over abdominal fetal ECG. Maternal ECG waves were first located using the original detector and afterwards a version with parameters adapted for fetal physiology was applied to detect fetal QRS, excluding signal singularities associated with maternal heartbeats. Single lead (SL) based marks were combined in a single annotator with post processing rules (SLR) from which fetal RR and fetal heart rate (FHR) measures can be computed. Data from PhysioNet with reference fetal QRS locations was considered for validation, with SLR outperforming SL including ICA based detections. The error in estimated FHR using SLR was lower than 20 bpm for more than 80% of the processed files. The median error in 1 min based FHR estimation was 0.13 bpm, with a correlation between reference and estimated FHR of 0.48, which increased to 0.73 when considering only records for which estimated FHR > 110 bpm. This allows us to conclude that the proposed methodology is able to provide a clinically useful estimation of the FHR.

The associations of earlier trauma exposures and history of mental disorders with PTSD after subsequent traumas.

PubMed

Kessler, R C; Aguilar-Gaxiola, S; Alonso, J; Bromet, E J; Gureje, O; Karam, E G; Koenen, K C; Lee, S; Liu, H; Pennell, B-E; Petukhova, M V; Sampson, N A; Shahly, V; Stein, D J; Atwoli, L; Borges, G; Bunting, B; de Girolamo, G; Gluzman, S F; Haro, J M; Hinkov, H; Kawakami, N; Kovess-Masfety, V; Navarro-Mateu, F; Posada-Villa, J; Scott, K M; Shalev, A Y; Ten Have, M; Torres, Y; Viana, M C; Zaslavsky, A M

2017-09-19

Although earlier trauma exposure is known to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after subsequent traumas, it is unclear whether this association is limited to cases where the earlier trauma led to PTSD. Resolution of this uncertainty has important implications for research on pretrauma vulnerability to PTSD. We examined this issue in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys with 34 676 respondents who reported lifetime trauma exposure. One lifetime trauma was selected randomly for each respondent. DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition) PTSD due to that trauma was assessed. We reported in a previous paper that four earlier traumas involving interpersonal violence significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas (odds ratio (OR)=1.3-2.5). We also assessed 14 lifetime DSM-IV mood, anxiety, disruptive behavior and substance disorders before random traumas. We show in the current report that only prior anxiety disorders significantly predicted PTSD in a multivariate model (OR=1.5-4.3) and that these disorders interacted significantly with three of the earlier traumas (witnessing atrocities, physical violence victimization and rape). History of witnessing atrocities significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas only among respondents with prior PTSD (OR=5.6). Histories of physical violence victimization (OR=1.5) and rape after age 17 years (OR=17.6) significantly predicted only among respondents with no history of prior anxiety disorders. Although only preliminary due to reliance on retrospective reports, these results suggest that history of anxiety disorders and history of a limited number of earlier traumas might usefully be targeted in future prospective studies as distinct foci of research on individual differences in vulnerability to PTSD after subsequent traumas.Molecular Psychiatry advance online publication, 19 September 2017; doi:10.1038/mp.2017.194.

Use of intraspecific variation in thermal responses for estimating an elevational cline in the timing of cold hardening in a sub-boreal conifer.

PubMed

Ishizuka, W; Ono, K; Hara, T; Goto, S

2015-01-01

To avoid winter frost damage, evergreen coniferous species develop cold hardiness with suitable phenology for the local climate regime. Along the elevational gradient, a genetic cline in autumn phenology is often recognised among coniferous populations, but further quantification of evolutionary adaptation related to the local environment and its responsible signals generating the phenological variation are poorly understood. We evaluated the timing of cold hardening among populations of Abies sachalinensis, based on time series freezing tests using trees derived from four seed source populations × three planting sites. Furthermore, we constructed a model to estimate the development of hardening from field temperatures and the intraspecific variations occurring during this process. An elevational cline was detected such that high-elevation populations developed cold hardiness earlier than low-elevation populations, representing significant genetic control. Because development occurred earlier at high-elevation planting sites, the genetic trend across elevation overlapped with the environmental trend. Based on the trade-off between later hardening to lengthen the active growth period and earlier hardening to avoid frost damage, this genetic cline would be adaptive to the local climate. Our modelling approach estimated intraspecific variation in two model components: the threshold temperature, which was the criterion for determining whether the trees accumulated the thermal value, and the chilling requirement for trees to achieve adequate cold hardiness. A higher threshold temperature and a lower chilling requirement could be responsible for the earlier phenology of the high-elevation population. These thermal responses may be one of the important factors driving the elevation-dependent adaptation of A. sachalinensis. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Parameter Estimation and Model Selection for Indoor Environments Based on Sparse Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dehbi, Y.; Loch-Dehbi, S.; Plümer, L.

2017-09-01

This paper presents a novel method for the parameter estimation and model selection for the reconstruction of indoor environments based on sparse observations. While most approaches for the reconstruction of indoor models rely on dense observations, we predict scenes of the interior with high accuracy in the absence of indoor measurements. We use a model-based top-down approach and incorporate strong but profound prior knowledge. The latter includes probability density functions for model parameters and sparse observations such as room areas and the building footprint. The floorplan model is characterized by linear and bi-linear relations with discrete and continuous parameters. We focus on the stochastic estimation of model parameters based on a topological model derived by combinatorial reasoning in a first step. A Gauss-Markov model is applied for estimation and simulation of the model parameters. Symmetries are represented and exploited during the estimation process. Background knowledge as well as observations are incorporated in a maximum likelihood estimation and model selection is performed with AIC/BIC. The likelihood is also used for the detection and correction of potential errors in the topological model. Estimation results are presented and discussed.

Regional estimation of base recharge to ground water using water balance and a base-flow index.

PubMed

Szilagyi, Jozsef; Harvey, F Edwin; Ayers, Jerry F

2003-01-01

Naturally occurring long-term mean annual base recharge to ground water in Nebraska was estimated with the help of a water-balance approach and an objective automated technique for base-flow separation involving minimal parameter-optimization requirements. Base recharge is equal to total recharge minus the amount of evapotranspiration coming directly from ground water. The estimation of evapotranspiration in the water-balance equation avoids the need to specify a contributing drainage area for ground water, which in certain cases may be considerably different from the drainage area for surface runoff. Evapotranspiration was calculated by the WREVAP model at the Solar and Meteorological Surface Observation Network (SAMSON) sites. Long-term mean annual base recharge was derived by determining the product of estimated long-term mean annual runoff (the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration) and the base-flow index (BFI). The BFI was calculated from discharge data obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey's gauging stations in Nebraska. Mapping was achieved by using geographic information systems (GIS) and geostatistics. This approach is best suited for regional-scale applications. It does not require complex hydrogeologic modeling nor detailed knowledge of soil characteristics, vegetation cover, or land-use practices. Long-term mean annual base recharge rates in excess of 110 mm/year resulted in the extreme eastern part of Nebraska. The western portion of the state expressed rates of only 15 to 20 mm annually, while the Sandhills region of north-central Nebraska was estimated to receive twice as much base recharge (40 to 50 mm/year) as areas south of it.

Earlier Right Ventricular Pacing in Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy for a Patient with Right Axis Deviation.

PubMed

Hattori, Yusuke; Ishibashi, Kohei; Noda, Takashi; Okamura, Hideo; Kanzaki, Hideaki; Anzai, Toshihisa; Yasuda, Satoshi; Kusano, Kengo

2017-09-01

We describe the case of a 37-year-old woman who presented with complete right bundle branch block and right axis deviation. She was admitted to our hospital due to severe heart failure and was dependent on inotropic agents. Cardiac resynchronization therapy was initiated but did not improve her condition. After the optimization of the pacing timing, we performed earlier right ventricular pacing, which led to an improvement of her heart failure. Earlier right ventricular pacing should be considered in patients with complete right bundle branch block and right axis deviation when cardiac resynchronization therapy is not effective.

Bias adjustment of infrared-based rainfall estimation using Passive Microwave satellite rainfall data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karbalaee, Negar; Hsu, Kuolin; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Braithwaite, Dan

2017-04-01

This study explores using Passive Microwave (PMW) rainfall estimation for spatial and temporal adjustment of Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS). The PERSIANN-CCS algorithm collects information from infrared images to estimate rainfall. PERSIANN-CCS is one of the algorithms used in the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (Global Precipitation Mission) estimation for the time period PMW rainfall estimations are limited or not available. Continued improvement of PERSIANN-CCS will support Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM for current as well as retrospective estimations of global precipitation. This study takes advantage of the high spatial and temporal resolution of GEO-based PERSIANN-CCS estimation and the more effective, but lower sample frequency, PMW estimation. The Probability Matching Method (PMM) was used to adjust the rainfall distribution of GEO-based PERSIANN-CCS toward that of PMW rainfall estimation. The results show that a significant improvement of global PERSIANN-CCS rainfall estimation is obtained.

A determinant-based criterion for working correlation structure selection in generalized estimating equations.

PubMed

Jaman, Ajmery; Latif, Mahbub A H M; Bari, Wasimul; Wahed, Abdus S

2016-05-20

In generalized estimating equations (GEE), the correlation between the repeated observations on a subject is specified with a working correlation matrix. Correct specification of the working correlation structure ensures efficient estimators of the regression coefficients. Among the criteria used, in practice, for selecting working correlation structure, Rotnitzky-Jewell, Quasi Information Criterion (QIC) and Correlation Information Criterion (CIC) are based on the fact that if the assumed working correlation structure is correct then the model-based (naive) and the sandwich (robust) covariance estimators of the regression coefficient estimators should be close to each other. The sandwich covariance estimator, used in defining the Rotnitzky-Jewell, QIC and CIC criteria, is biased downward and has a larger variability than the corresponding model-based covariance estimator. Motivated by this fact, a new criterion is proposed in this paper based on the bias-corrected sandwich covariance estimator for selecting an appropriate working correlation structure in GEE. A comparison of the proposed and the competing criteria is shown using simulation studies with correlated binary responses. The results revealed that the proposed criterion generally performs better than the competing criteria. An example of selecting the appropriate working correlation structure has also been shown using the data from Madras Schizophrenia Study. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Human joint motion estimation for electromyography (EMG)-based dynamic motion control.

PubMed

Zhang, Qin; Hosoda, Ryo; Venture, Gentiane

2013-01-01

This study aims to investigate a joint motion estimation method from Electromyography (EMG) signals during dynamic movement. In most EMG-based humanoid or prosthetics control systems, EMG features were directly or indirectly used to trigger intended motions. However, both physiological and nonphysiological factors can influence EMG characteristics during dynamic movements, resulting in subject-specific, non-stationary and crosstalk problems. Particularly, when motion velocity and/or joint torque are not constrained, joint motion estimation from EMG signals are more challenging. In this paper, we propose a joint motion estimation method based on muscle activation recorded from a pair of agonist and antagonist muscles of the joint. A linear state-space model with multi input single output is proposed to map the muscle activity to joint motion. An adaptive estimation method is proposed to train the model. The estimation performance is evaluated in performing a single elbow flexion-extension movement in two subjects. All the results in two subjects at two load levels indicate the feasibility and suitability of the proposed method in joint motion estimation. The estimation root-mean-square error is within 8.3% ∼ 10.6%, which is lower than that being reported in several previous studies. Moreover, this method is able to overcome subject-specific problem and compensate non-stationary EMG properties.

Assessment of risk factors for earlier onset of sporadic Alzheimer's disease dementia.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Fabricio Ferreira; Bertolucci, Paulo Henrique Ferreira; Chen, Elizabeth Suchi; Smith, Marilia Cardoso

2014-01-01

Pharmacological treatment has mild effects for patients with Alzheimer's disease dementia (AD); therefore, the search for modifiable risk factors is an important challenge. Though risk factors for AD are widely recognized, elements that influence the time of dementia onset have not been comprehensively reported. We aimed to investigate which risk factors might be related to the age of onset of AD in a sample of patients with highly variable educational levels, taking into account the Framingham risk scoring as the sole measure of vascular risk. We included 209 consecutive late-onset AD patients to find out which factors among educational levels, coronary heart disease risk estimated by way of Framingham risk scores, history of head trauma or depression, surgical procedures under general anesthesia, family history of neurodegenerative diseases, gender, marital status and APOE haplotypes might be related to the age of dementia onset in this sample of patients with low mean schooling. Mean age of AD onset was 73.38±6.5 years old, unaffected by schooling or family history of neurodegenerative diseases. Patients who were APOE-ε4 carriers, married, or with history of depression, had earlier onset of AD, particularly when they were women. Coronary heart disease risk was marginally significant for later onset of AD. APOE haplotypes, marital status and history of depression were the most important factors to influence the age of AD onset in this sample. While midlife cerebrovascular risk factors may increase incidence of AD, they may lead to later dementia onset when present in late life.

Estimating Evapotranspiration Using an Observation Based Terrestrial Water Budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodell, Matthew; McWilliams, Eric B.; Famiglietti, James S.; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Nigro, Joseph

2011-01-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is difficult to measure at the scales of climate models and climate variability. While satellite retrieval algorithms do exist, their accuracy is limited by the sparseness of in situ observations available for calibration and validation, which themselves may be unrepresentative of 500m and larger scale satellite footprints and grid pixels. Here, we use a combination of satellite and ground-based observations to close the water budgets of seven continental scale river basins (Mackenzie, Fraser, Nelson, Mississippi, Tocantins, Danube, and Ubangi), estimating mean ET as a residual. For any river basin, ET must equal total precipitation minus net runoff minus the change in total terrestrial water storage (TWS), in order for mass to be conserved. We make use of precipitation from two global observation-based products, archived runoff data, and TWS changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission. We demonstrate that while uncertainty in the water budget-based estimates of monthly ET is often too large for those estimates to be useful, the uncertainty in the mean annual cycle is small enough that it is practical for evaluating other ET products. Here, we evaluate five land surface model simulations, two operational atmospheric analyses, and a recent global reanalysis product based on our results. An important outcome is that the water budget-based ET time series in two tropical river basins, one in Brazil and the other in central Africa, exhibit a weak annual cycle, which may help to resolve debate about the strength of the annual cycle of ET in such regions and how ET is constrained throughout the year. The methods described will be useful for water and energy budget studies, weather and climate model assessments, and satellite-based ET retrieval optimization.

Intensity-Based Registration for Lung Motion Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Kunlin; Ding, Kai; Amelon, Ryan E.; Du, Kaifang; Reinhardt, Joseph M.; Raghavan, Madhavan L.; Christensen, Gary E.

Image registration plays an important role within pulmonary image analysis. The task of registration is to find the spatial mapping that brings two images into alignment. Registration algorithms designed for matching 4D lung scans or two 3D scans acquired at different inflation levels can catch the temporal changes in position and shape of the region of interest. Accurate registration is critical to post-analysis of lung mechanics and motion estimation. In this chapter, we discuss lung-specific adaptations of intensity-based registration methods for 3D/4D lung images and review approaches for assessing registration accuracy. Then we introduce methods for estimating tissue motion and studying lung mechanics. Finally, we discuss methods for assessing and quantifying specific volume change, specific ventilation, strain/ stretch information and lobar sliding.

Convolution-based estimation of organ dose in tube current modulated CT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Xiaoyu; Segars, W. Paul; Dixon, Robert L.; Samei, Ehsan

2016-05-01

Estimating organ dose for clinical patients requires accurate modeling of the patient anatomy and the dose field of the CT exam. The modeling of patient anatomy can be achieved using a library of representative computational phantoms (Samei et al 2014 Pediatr. Radiol. 44 460-7). The modeling of the dose field can be challenging for CT exams performed with a tube current modulation (TCM) technique. The purpose of this work was to effectively model the dose field for TCM exams using a convolution-based method. A framework was further proposed for prospective and retrospective organ dose estimation in clinical practice. The study included 60 adult patients (age range: 18-70 years, weight range: 60-180 kg). Patient-specific computational phantoms were generated based on patient CT image datasets. A previously validated Monte Carlo simulation program was used to model a clinical CT scanner (SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens Healthcare, Forchheim, Germany). A practical strategy was developed to achieve real-time organ dose estimation for a given clinical patient. CTDIvol-normalized organ dose coefficients ({{h}\\text{Organ}} ) under constant tube current were estimated and modeled as a function of patient size. Each clinical patient in the library was optimally matched to another computational phantom to obtain a representation of organ location/distribution. The patient organ distribution was convolved with a dose distribution profile to generate {{≤ft(\\text{CTD}{{\\text{I}}\\text{vol}}\\right)}\\text{organ, \\text{convolution}}} values that quantified the regional dose field for each organ. The organ dose was estimated by multiplying {{≤ft(\\text{CTD}{{\\text{I}}\\text{vol}}\\right)}\\text{organ, \\text{convolution}}} with the organ dose coefficients ({{h}\\text{Organ}} ). To validate the accuracy of this dose estimation technique, the organ dose of the original clinical patient was estimated using Monte Carlo program with TCM profiles explicitly modeled. The

Determinants and consequences of discrepancies in menstrual and ultrasonographic gestational age estimates.

PubMed

Morin, Isabelle; Morin, Lucie; Zhang, Xun; Platt, Robert W; Blondel, Béatrice; Bréart, Gérard; Usher, Robert; Kramer, Michael S

2005-02-01

To assess the association between maternal and fetal characteristics and discrepancy between last normal menstrual period and early (<20 weeks) ultrasound-based gestational age and the association between discrepancies and pregnancy outcomes. Hospital-based cohort study. Montreal, Canada. A total of 46,514 women with both menstrual- and early ultrasound-based gestational age estimates. Positive (last normal menstrual period > early ultrasound, i.e. menstrual-based gestational age is higher than early ultrasound-based gestational age, so that the expected date of delivery is earlier with the menstrual-based gestational age) discrepancies > or =+7 days, mean birthweight, low birthweight, stillbirth and in-hospital neonatal death. Multiparous mothers and those with diabetes, small stature or high pre-pregnancy body mass index were more likely to have positive discrepancies. The proportion of women with discrepancies > or =+7 days was significantly higher among chromosomally malformed and female fetuses. The mean birthweight declined with increasingly positive differences. The risk of low birthweight was significantly higher for positive differences. Associations with fetal growth measures were more plausible with early ultrasound estimates. Although most discrepancies between last normal menstrual period- and early ultrasound-based gestational age are attributable to errors in menstrual dating, our results suggest that some positive differences reflect early growth restriction.

Estimating the annual risk of HIV transmission within HIV sero-discordant couples in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Awad, Susanne F; Chemaitelly, Hiam; Abu-Raddad, Laith J

2018-01-01

To estimate the annual risk of HIV transmission (ϕ) within HIV sero-discordant couples in 23 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), by utilizing newly available national population-based data and accounting for factors known to potentially affect this estimation. We used a recently developed pair-based mathematical model that accommodates for HIV-dynamics temporal variation, sexual risk-behavior heterogeneity, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. Estimated country-specific ϕ (in absence of ART) ranged between 4.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.9%-6.3%) and 47.4% (95% UI: 37.2%-69.0%) per person-year (ppy), with a median of 12.4%. ϕ was strongly associated with HIV prevalence, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.92, and was larger in high- versus low-HIV-prevalence countries. ϕ increased by 1.31% (95% confidence interval: 1.00%-1.55%) ppy for every 1% increase in HIV prevalence. ϕ estimates were similar to earlier estimates, and suggested considerable heterogeneity in HIV infectiousness across SSA. This heterogeneity may explain, partly, the differences in epidemic scales. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Robust estimation of simulated urinary volume from camera images under bathroom illumination.

PubMed

Honda, Chizuru; Bhuiyan, Md Shoaib; Kawanaka, Haruki; Watanabe, Eiichi; Oguri, Koji

2016-08-01

General uroflowmetry method involves the risk of nosocomial infections or time and effort of the recording. Medical institutions, therefore, need to measure voided volume simply and hygienically. Multiple cylindrical model that can estimate the fluid flow rate from the photographed image using camera has been proposed in an earlier study. This study implemented a flow rate estimation by using a general-purpose camera system (Raspberry Pi Camera Module) and the multiple cylindrical model. However, large amounts of noise in extracting liquid region are generated by the variation of the illumination when performing measurements in the bathroom. So the estimation error gets very large. In other words, the specifications of the previous study's camera setup regarding the shutter type and the frame rate was too strict. In this study, we relax the specifications to achieve a flow rate estimation using a general-purpose camera. In order to determine the appropriate approximate curve, we propose a binarizing method using background subtraction at each scanning row and a curve approximation method using RANSAC. Finally, by evaluating the estimation accuracy of our experiment and by comparing it with the earlier study's results, we show the effectiveness of our proposed method for flow rate estimation.

Estimating past diameters of mixed conifer species in the central Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

K. Leroy Dolph

1981-01-01

Tree diameter outside bark at an earlier period of growth can be estimated from the linear relationship of present inside bark and outside bark diameters at breast height. This note presents equations for estimating inside bark diameters, outside bark diameters, and past outside bark diameters for each of the mixed-conifer species in the central Sierra Nevada.

Earlier versus later continuous Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) for stable low-birth-weight infants: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Nagai, S; Andrianarimanana, D; Rabesandratana, N; Yonemoto, N; Nakayama, T; Mori, R

2010-06-01

The aim of this study was to examine the effectiveness of earlier continuous Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) for relatively stable low-birth-weight (LBW) infants in a resource-limited country. A randomized controlled trial was performed in LBW infants at a referral hospital in Madagascar. Earlier continuous KMC (intervention) was begun as soon as possible, within 24 h postbirth, and later continuous KMC (control: conventional care) was begun after complete stabilization (generally after 24 h postbirth). Main outcome measure was mortality during the first 28 days postbirth. This trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00531492. A total of 73 infants (intervention 37, control 36) were included. Earlier continuous KMC had higher but no statistically different mortality in the first 28 days postbirth (1 vs. 2; risk ratio, 1.95; 95% CIs, 0.18-20.53; p = 1.00). There were no differences in incidence of morbidities. Body weight loss from birth to 24 h postbirth was significantly less in earlier KMC infants compared with later KMC infants. (-34.81 g vs. -73.97 g; mean difference, 39.16 g; 95% CIs, 10.30-68.03; p = 0.01; adjusted p = 0.02). Adverse events and duration of hospitalization were not different between the two groups. Further evaluations of earlier continuous KMC including measurement of KMC dose, are needed in resource-limited countries.

Number of Diverticulitis Episodes Before Resection and Factors Associated With Earlier Interventions

PubMed Central

Simianu, Vlad V.; Fichera, Alessandro; Bastawrous, Amir L.; Davidson, Giana H.; Florence, Michael G.; Thirlby, Richard C.; Flum, David R.

2016-01-01

claims only, in 80.5% (2459 of 3054) if counting inpatient and outpatient claims only, and in 56.3% (1720 of 3054) if counting all types of claims. Based on all types of claims, patients having surgery after fewer than 3 episodes were of similar mean age compared with patients having delayed surgery (both 47.7 years, P = .91), were less likely to undergo laparoscopy (65.1% [1120 of 1720] vs 70.8% [944 of 1334], P = .001), and had more time between the last 2 episodes preceding surgery (157 vs 96 days, P < .001). Patients with health maintenance organization or capitated insurance plans had lower rates of early surgery (50.1% [247 of 493] vs 57.4% [1429 of 2490], P = .01) than those with other insurance plan types. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE After considering all types of diverticulitis claims, 56.3% (1720 of 3054) of elective resections for uncomplicated diverticulitis occurred after fewer than 3 episodes. Earlier surgery was not explained by younger age, laparoscopy, time between the last 2 episodes preceding surgery, or financial risk-bearing for patients. In delivering value-added surgical care, factors driving early, elective resection for diverticulitis need to be determined. PMID:26864286

A History-based Estimation for LHCb job requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rauschmayr, Nathalie

2015-12-01

The main goal of a Workload Management System (WMS) is to find and allocate resources for the given tasks. The more and better job information the WMS receives, the easier will be to accomplish its task, which directly translates into higher utilization of resources. Traditionally, the information associated with each job, like expected runtime, is defined beforehand by the Production Manager in best case and fixed arbitrary values by default. In the case of LHCb's Workload Management System no mechanisms are provided which automate the estimation of job requirements. As a result, much more CPU time is normally requested than actually needed. Particularly, in the context of multicore jobs this presents a major problem, since single- and multicore jobs shall share the same resources. Consequently, grid sites need to rely on estimations given by the VOs in order to not decrease the utilization of their worker nodes when making multicore job slots available. The main reason for going to multicore jobs is the reduction of the overall memory footprint. Therefore, it also needs to be studied how memory consumption of jobs can be estimated. A detailed workload analysis of past LHCb jobs is presented. It includes a study of job features and their correlation with runtime and memory consumption. Following the features, a supervised learning algorithm is developed based on a history based prediction. The aim is to learn over time how jobs’ runtime and memory evolve influenced due to changes in experiment conditions and software versions. It will be shown that estimation can be notably improved if experiment conditions are taken into account.

Radiance and atmosphere propagation-based method for the target range estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Hoonkyung; Chun, Joohwan

2012-06-01

Target range estimation is traditionally based on radar and active sonar systems in modern combat system. However, the performance of such active sensor devices is degraded tremendously by jamming signal from the enemy. This paper proposes a simple range estimation method between the target and the sensor. Passive IR sensors measures infrared (IR) light radiance radiating from objects in dierent wavelength and this method shows robustness against electromagnetic jamming. The measured target radiance of each wavelength at the IR sensor depends on the emissive properties of target material and is attenuated by various factors, in particular the distance between the sensor and the target and atmosphere environment. MODTRAN is a tool that models atmospheric propagation of electromagnetic radiation. Based on the result from MODTRAN and measured radiance, the target range is estimated. To statistically analyze the performance of proposed method, we use maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and evaluate the Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) via the probability density function of measured radiance. And we also compare CRLB and the variance of and ML estimation using Monte-Carlo.

Ensemble-Based Parameter Estimation in a Coupled General Circulation Model

DOE PAGES

Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Zhang, S.; ...

2014-09-10

Parameter estimation provides a potentially powerful approach to reduce model bias for complex climate models. Here, in a twin experiment framework, the authors perform the first parameter estimation in a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model using an ensemble coupled data assimilation system facilitated with parameter estimation. The authors first perform single-parameter estimation and then multiple-parameter estimation. In the case of the single-parameter estimation, the error of the parameter [solar penetration depth (SPD)] is reduced by over 90% after ~40 years of assimilation of the conventional observations of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS). The results of multiple-parametermore » estimation are less reliable than those of single-parameter estimation when only the monthly SST and SSS are assimilated. Assimilating additional observations of atmospheric data of temperature and wind improves the reliability of multiple-parameter estimation. The errors of the parameters are reduced by 90% in ~8 years of assimilation. Finally, the improved parameters also improve the model climatology. With the optimized parameters, the bias of the climatology of SST is reduced by ~90%. Altogether, this study suggests the feasibility of ensemble-based parameter estimation in a fully coupled general circulation model.« less

Variational optical flow estimation based on stick tensor voting.

PubMed

Rashwan, Hatem A; Garcia, Miguel A; Puig, Domenec

2013-07-01

Variational optical flow techniques allow the estimation of flow fields from spatio-temporal derivatives. They are based on minimizing a functional that contains a data term and a regularization term. Recently, numerous approaches have been presented for improving the accuracy of the estimated flow fields. Among them, tensor voting has been shown to be particularly effective in the preservation of flow discontinuities. This paper presents an adaptation of the data term by using anisotropic stick tensor voting in order to gain robustness against noise and outliers with significantly lower computational cost than (full) tensor voting. In addition, an anisotropic complementary smoothness term depending on directional information estimated through stick tensor voting is utilized in order to preserve discontinuity capabilities of the estimated flow fields. Finally, a weighted non-local term that depends on both the estimated directional information and the occlusion state of pixels is integrated during the optimization process in order to denoise the final flow field. The proposed approach yields state-of-the-art results on the Middlebury benchmark.

Satellite angular velocity estimation based on star images and optical flow techniques.

PubMed

Fasano, Giancarmine; Rufino, Giancarlo; Accardo, Domenico; Grassi, Michele

2013-09-25

An optical flow-based technique is proposed to estimate spacecraft angular velocity based on sequences of star-field images. It does not require star identification and can be thus used to also deliver angular rate information when attitude determination is not possible, as during platform de tumbling or slewing. Region-based optical flow calculation is carried out on successive star images preprocessed to remove background. Sensor calibration parameters, Poisson equation, and a least-squares method are then used to estimate the angular velocity vector components in the sensor rotating frame. A theoretical error budget is developed to estimate the expected angular rate accuracy as a function of camera parameters and star distribution in the field of view. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is tested by using star field scenes generated by a hardware-in-the-loop testing facility and acquired by a commercial-off-the shelf camera sensor. Simulated cases comprise rotations at different rates. Experimental results are presented which are consistent with theoretical estimates. In particular, very accurate angular velocity estimates are generated at lower slew rates, while in all cases the achievable accuracy in the estimation of the angular velocity component along boresight is about one order of magnitude worse than the other two components.

Satellite Angular Velocity Estimation Based on Star Images and Optical Flow Techniques

PubMed Central

Fasano, Giancarmine; Rufino, Giancarlo; Accardo, Domenico; Grassi, Michele

2013-01-01

An optical flow-based technique is proposed to estimate spacecraft angular velocity based on sequences of star-field images. It does not require star identification and can be thus used to also deliver angular rate information when attitude determination is not possible, as during platform de tumbling or slewing. Region-based optical flow calculation is carried out on successive star images preprocessed to remove background. Sensor calibration parameters, Poisson equation, and a least-squares method are then used to estimate the angular velocity vector components in the sensor rotating frame. A theoretical error budget is developed to estimate the expected angular rate accuracy as a function of camera parameters and star distribution in the field of view. The effectiveness of the proposed technique is tested by using star field scenes generated by a hardware-in-the-loop testing facility and acquired by a commercial-off-the shelf camera sensor. Simulated cases comprise rotations at different rates. Experimental results are presented which are consistent with theoretical estimates. In particular, very accurate angular velocity estimates are generated at lower slew rates, while in all cases the achievable accuracy in the estimation of the angular velocity component along boresight is about one order of magnitude worse than the other two components. PMID:24072023

Precise Image-Based Motion Estimation for Autonomous Small Body Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Andrew E.; Matthies, Larry H.

1998-01-01

Space science and solar system exploration are driving NASA to develop an array of small body missions ranging in scope from near body flybys to complete sample return. This paper presents an algorithm for onboard motion estimation that will enable the precision guidance necessary for autonomous small body landing. Our techniques are based on automatic feature tracking between a pair of descent camera images followed by two frame motion estimation and scale recovery using laser altimetry data. The output of our algorithm is an estimate of rigid motion (attitude and position) and motion covariance between frames. This motion estimate can be passed directly to the spacecraft guidance and control system to enable rapid execution of safe and precise trajectories.

Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer-Related Knowledge - Small Area Estimates

Cancer.gov

The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF TWO-FLUID CAPILLARY PRESSURE-SATURATION AND PERMEABILITY FUNCTIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Capillary pressure and permeability functions are crucial to the quantitative description of subsurface flow and transport. Earlier work has demonstrated the feasibility of using the inverse parameter estimation approach in determining these functions if both capillary pressure ...

Constrained map-based inventory estimation

Treesearch

Paul C. Van Deusen; Francis A. Roesch

2007-01-01

A region can conceptually be tessellated into polygons at different scales or resolutions. Likewise, samples can be taken from the region to determine the value of a polygon variable for each scale. Sampled polygons can be used to estimate values for other polygons at the same scale. However, estimates should be compatible across the different scales. Estimates are...

Machine-Learning Based Channel Quality and Stability Estimation for Stream-Based Multichannel Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Rehan, Waqas; Fischer, Stefan; Rehan, Maaz

2016-09-12

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) have become more and more diversified and are today able to also support high data rate applications, such as multimedia. In this case, per-packet channel handshaking/switching may result in inducing additional overheads, such as energy consumption, delays and, therefore, data loss. One of the solutions is to perform stream-based channel allocation where channel handshaking is performed once before transmitting the whole data stream. Deciding stream-based channel allocation is more critical in case of multichannel WSNs where channels of different quality/stability are available and the wish for high performance requires sensor nodes to switch to the best among the available channels. In this work, we will focus on devising mechanisms that perform channel quality/stability estimation in order to improve the accommodation of stream-based communication in multichannel wireless sensor networks. For performing channel quality assessment, we have formulated a composite metric, which we call channel rank measurement (CRM), that can demarcate channels into good, intermediate and bad quality on the basis of the standard deviation of the received signal strength indicator (RSSI) and the average of the link quality indicator (LQI) of the received packets. CRM is then used to generate a data set for training a supervised machine learning-based algorithm (which we call Normal Equation based Channel quality prediction (NEC) algorithm) in such a way that it may perform instantaneous channel rank estimation of any channel. Subsequently, two robust extensions of the NEC algorithm are proposed (which we call Normal Equation based Weighted Moving Average Channel quality prediction (NEWMAC) algorithm and Normal Equation based Aggregate Maturity Criteria with Beta Tracking based Channel weight prediction (NEAMCBTC) algorithm), that can perform channel quality estimation on the basis of both current and past values of channel rank estimation. In the end

Machine-Learning Based Channel Quality and Stability Estimation for Stream-Based Multichannel Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Rehan, Waqas; Fischer, Stefan; Rehan, Maaz

2016-01-01

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) have become more and more diversified and are today able to also support high data rate applications, such as multimedia. In this case, per-packet channel handshaking/switching may result in inducing additional overheads, such as energy consumption, delays and, therefore, data loss. One of the solutions is to perform stream-based channel allocation where channel handshaking is performed once before transmitting the whole data stream. Deciding stream-based channel allocation is more critical in case of multichannel WSNs where channels of different quality/stability are available and the wish for high performance requires sensor nodes to switch to the best among the available channels. In this work, we will focus on devising mechanisms that perform channel quality/stability estimation in order to improve the accommodation of stream-based communication in multichannel wireless sensor networks. For performing channel quality assessment, we have formulated a composite metric, which we call channel rank measurement (CRM), that can demarcate channels into good, intermediate and bad quality on the basis of the standard deviation of the received signal strength indicator (RSSI) and the average of the link quality indicator (LQI) of the received packets. CRM is then used to generate a data set for training a supervised machine learning-based algorithm (which we call Normal Equation based Channel quality prediction (NEC) algorithm) in such a way that it may perform instantaneous channel rank estimation of any channel. Subsequently, two robust extensions of the NEC algorithm are proposed (which we call Normal Equation based Weighted Moving Average Channel quality prediction (NEWMAC) algorithm and Normal Equation based Aggregate Maturity Criteria with Beta Tracking based Channel weight prediction (NEAMCBTC) algorithm), that can perform channel quality estimation on the basis of both current and past values of channel rank estimation. In the end

Estimating Pressure Reactivity Using Noninvasive Doppler-Based Systolic Flow Index.

PubMed

Zeiler, Frederick A; Smielewski, Peter; Donnelly, Joseph; Czosnyka, Marek; Menon, David K; Ercole, Ari

2018-04-05

The study objective was to derive models that estimate the pressure reactivity index (PRx) using the noninvasive transcranial Doppler (TCD) based systolic flow index (Sx_a) and mean flow index (Mx_a), both based on mean arterial pressure, in traumatic brain injury (TBI). Using a retrospective database of 347 patients with TBI with intracranial pressure and TCD time series recordings, we derived PRx, Sx_a, and Mx_a. We first derived the autocorrelative structure of PRx based on: (A) autoregressive integrative moving average (ARIMA) modeling in representative patients, and (B) within sequential linear mixed effects (LME) models with various embedded ARIMA error structures for PRx for the entire population. Finally, we performed sequential LME models with embedded PRx ARIMA modeling to find the best model for estimating PRx using Sx_a and Mx_a. Model adequacy was assessed via normally distributed residual density. Model superiority was assessed via Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), log likelihood (LL), and analysis of variance testing between models. The most appropriate ARIMA structure for PRx in this population was (2,0,2). This was applied in sequential LME modeling. Two models were superior (employing random effects in the independent variables and intercept): (A) PRx ∼ Sx_a, and (B) PRx ∼ Sx_a + Mx_a. Correlation between observed and estimated PRx with these two models was: (A) 0.794 (p < 0.0001, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.788-0.799), and (B) 0.814 (p < 0.0001, 95% CI = 0.809-0.819), with acceptable agreement on Bland-Altman analysis. Through using linear mixed effects modeling and accounting for the ARIMA structure of PRx, one can estimate PRx using noninvasive TCD-based indices. We have described our first attempts at such modeling and PRx estimation, establishing the strong link between two aspects of cerebral autoregulation: measures of cerebral blood flow and those of pulsatile cerebral blood

[Estimation of desert vegetation coverage based on multi-source remote sensing data].

PubMed

Wan, Hong-Mei; Li, Xia; Dong, Dao-Rui

2012-12-01

Taking the lower reaches of Tarim River in Xinjiang of Northwest China as study areaAbstract: Taking the lower reaches of Tarim River in Xinjiang of Northwest China as study area and based on the ground investigation and the multi-source remote sensing data of different resolutions, the estimation models for desert vegetation coverage were built, with the precisions of different estimation methods and models compared. The results showed that with the increasing spatial resolution of remote sensing data, the precisions of the estimation models increased. The estimation precision of the models based on the high, middle-high, and middle-low resolution remote sensing data was 89.5%, 87.0%, and 84.56%, respectively, and the precisions of the remote sensing models were higher than that of vegetation index method. This study revealed the change patterns of the estimation precision of desert vegetation coverage based on different spatial resolution remote sensing data, and realized the quantitative conversion of the parameters and scales among the high, middle, and low spatial resolution remote sensing data of desert vegetation coverage, which would provide direct evidence for establishing and implementing comprehensive remote sensing monitoring scheme for the ecological restoration in the study area.

Centroid estimation for a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor based on stream processing.

PubMed

Kong, Fanpeng; Polo, Manuel Cegarra; Lambert, Andrew

2017-08-10

Using center of gravity to estimate the centroid of the spot in a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor, the measurement corrupts with photon and detector noise. Parameters, like window size, often require careful optimization to balance the noise error, dynamic range, and linearity of the response coefficient under different photon flux. It also needs to be substituted by the correlation method for extended sources. We propose a centroid estimator based on stream processing, where the center of gravity calculation window floats with the incoming pixel from the detector. In comparison with conventional methods, we show that the proposed estimator simplifies the choice of optimized parameters, provides a unit linear coefficient response, and reduces the influence of background and noise. It is shown that the stream-based centroid estimator also works well for limited size extended sources. A hardware implementation of the proposed estimator is discussed.

Accurate motion parameter estimation for colonoscopy tracking using a regression method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jianfei; Subramanian, Kalpathi R.; Yoo, Terry S.

2010-03-01

Co-located optical and virtual colonoscopy images have the potential to provide important clinical information during routine colonoscopy procedures. In our earlier work, we presented an optical flow based algorithm to compute egomotion from live colonoscopy video, permitting navigation and visualization of the corresponding patient anatomy. In the original algorithm, motion parameters were estimated using the traditional Least Sum of squares(LS) procedure which can be unstable in the context of optical flow vectors with large errors. In the improved algorithm, we use the Least Median of Squares (LMS) method, a robust regression method for motion parameter estimation. Using the LMS method, we iteratively analyze and converge toward the main distribution of the flow vectors, while disregarding outliers. We show through three experiments the improvement in tracking results obtained using the LMS method, in comparison to the LS estimator. The first experiment demonstrates better spatial accuracy in positioning the virtual camera in the sigmoid colon. The second and third experiments demonstrate the robustness of this estimator, resulting in longer tracked sequences: from 300 to 1310 in the ascending colon, and 410 to 1316 in the transverse colon.

On soil textural classifications and soil-texture-based estimations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ángel Martín, Miguel; Pachepsky, Yakov A.; García-Gutiérrez, Carlos; Reyes, Miguel

2018-02-01

The soil texture representation with the standard textural fraction triplet sand-silt-clay is commonly used to estimate soil properties. The objective of this work was to test the hypothesis that other fraction sizes in the triplets may provide a better representation of soil texture for estimating some soil parameters. We estimated the cumulative particle size distribution and bulk density from an entropy-based representation of the textural triplet with experimental data for 6240 soil samples. The results supported the hypothesis. For example, simulated distributions were not significantly different from the original ones in 25 and 85 % of cases when the sand-silt-clay and very coarse+coarse + medium sand - fine + very fine sand - silt+clay were used, respectively. When the same standard and modified triplets were used to estimate the average bulk density, the coefficients of determination were 0.001 and 0.967, respectively. Overall, the textural triplet selection appears to be application and data specific.

Iothalamate versus estimated GFR in a Hispanic-dominant pediatric renal transplant population.

PubMed

Papez, Karen E; Barletta, Gina-Marie; Hsieh, Stephanie; Joseph, Mark; Morgenstern, Bruce Z

2013-12-01

Accurate knowledge of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is essential to the practice of nephrology. Routine surveillance of GFR is most commonly executed using estimated GFR (eGFR) calculations, most often from serum creatinine measurements. However, cystatin C-based equations have demonstrated earlier sensitivity to decline in renal function. The literature regarding eGFR from cystatin C has few references that include transplant recipients. Additionally, for most of the published eGFR equations, patients of Hispanic ethnicity have not been enrolled in sufficient numbers. The applicability of several eGFR equations to the pediatric kidney transplant population at our center were compared in the context of determining whether Hispanic ethnicity was associated with equation performance. Updated Schwartz, CKiD, and Zappitelli eGFR estimation equations demonstrated the highest correlations. The authors recommend further prospective investigations to validate and identify factors contributing to these findings.

A phase match based frequency estimation method for sinusoidal signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Yan-Lin; Tu, Ya-Qing; Chen, Lin-Jun; Shen, Ting-Ao

2015-04-01

Accurate frequency estimation affects the ranging precision of linear frequency modulated continuous wave (LFMCW) radars significantly. To improve the ranging precision of LFMCW radars, a phase match based frequency estimation method is proposed. To obtain frequency estimation, linear prediction property, autocorrelation, and cross correlation of sinusoidal signals are utilized. The analysis of computational complex shows that the computational load of the proposed method is smaller than those of two-stage autocorrelation (TSA) and maximum likelihood. Simulations and field experiments are performed to validate the proposed method, and the results demonstrate the proposed method has better performance in terms of frequency estimation precision than methods of Pisarenko harmonic decomposition, modified covariance, and TSA, which contribute to improving the precision of LFMCW radars effectively.

Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting in the United States: Updated Estimates of Women and Girls at Risk, 2012

PubMed Central

Stupp, Paul; Okoroh, Ekwutosi; Besera, Ghenet; Goodman, David; Danel, Isabella

2016-01-01

Objectives In 1996, the U.S. Congress passed legislation making female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) illegal in the United States. CDC published the first estimates of the number of women and girls at risk for FGM/C in 1997. Since 2012, various constituencies have again raised concerns about the practice in the United States. We updated an earlier estimate of the number of women and girls in the United States who were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences. Methods We estimated the number of women and girls who were at risk for undergoing FGM/C or its consequences in 2012 by applying country-specific prevalence of FGM/C to the estimated number of women and girls living in the United States who were born in that country or who lived with a parent born in that country. Results Approximately 513,000 women and girls in the United States were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences in 2012, which was more than three times higher than the earlier estimate, based on 1990 data. The increase in the number of women and girls younger than 18 years of age at risk for FGM/C was more than four times that of previous estimates. Conclusion The estimated increase was wholly a result of rapid growth in the number of immigrants from FGM/C-practicing countries living in the United States and not from increases in FGM/C prevalence in those countries. Scientifically valid information regarding whether women or their daughters have actually undergone FGM/C and related information that can contribute to efforts to prevent the practice in the United States and provide needed health services to women who have undergone FGM/C are needed. PMID:26957669

Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting in the United States: Updated Estimates of Women and Girls at Risk, 2012.

PubMed

Goldberg, Howard; Stupp, Paul; Okoroh, Ekwutosi; Besera, Ghenet; Goodman, David; Danel, Isabella

2016-01-01

In 1996, the U.S. Congress passed legislation making female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) illegal in the United States. CDC published the first estimates of the number of women and girls at risk for FGM/C in 1997. Since 2012, various constituencies have again raised concerns about the practice in the United States. We updated an earlier estimate of the number of women and girls in the United States who were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences. We estimated the number of women and girls who were at risk for undergoing FGM/C or its consequences in 2012 by applying country-specific prevalence of FGM/C to the estimated number of women and girls living in the United States who were born in that country or who lived with a parent born in that country. Approximately 513,000 women and girls in the United States were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences in 2012, which was more than three times higher than the earlier estimate, based on 1990 data. The increase in the number of women and girls younger than 18 years of age at risk for FGM/C was more than four times that of previous estimates. The estimated increase was wholly a result of rapid growth in the number of immigrants from FGM/C-practicing countries living in the United States and not from increases in FGM/C prevalence in those countries. Scientifically valid information regarding whether women or their daughters have actually undergone FGM/C and related information that can contribute to efforts to prevent the practice in the United States and provide needed health services to women who have undergone FGM/C are needed.

Non-contact cardiac pulse rate estimation based on web-camera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingzhi; Han, Tailin

2015-12-01

In this paper, we introduce a new methodology of non-contact cardiac pulse rate estimation based on the imaging Photoplethysmography (iPPG) and blind source separation. This novel's approach can be applied to color video recordings of the human face and is based on automatic face tracking along with blind source separation of the color channels into RGB three-channel component. First of all, we should do some pre-processings of the data which can be got from color video such as normalization and sphering. We can use spectrum analysis to estimate the cardiac pulse rate by Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and JADE algorithm. With Bland-Altman and correlation analysis, we compared the cardiac pulse rate extracted from videos recorded by a basic webcam to a Commercial pulse oximetry sensors and achieved high accuracy and correlation. Root mean square error for the estimated results is 2.06bpm, which indicates that the algorithm can realize the non-contact measurements of cardiac pulse rate.

A Simulation Environment for Benchmarking Sensor Fusion-Based Pose Estimators.

PubMed

Ligorio, Gabriele; Sabatini, Angelo Maria

2015-12-19

In-depth analysis and performance evaluation of sensor fusion-based estimators may be critical when performed using real-world sensor data. For this reason, simulation is widely recognized as one of the most powerful tools for algorithm benchmarking. In this paper, we present a simulation framework suitable for assessing the performance of sensor fusion-based pose estimators. The systems used for implementing the framework were magnetic/inertial measurement units (MIMUs) and a camera, although the addition of further sensing modalities is straightforward. Typical nuisance factors were also included for each sensor. The proposed simulation environment was validated using real-life sensor data employed for motion tracking. The higher mismatch between real and simulated sensors was about 5% of the measured quantity (for the camera simulation), whereas a lower correlation was found for an axis of the gyroscope (0.90). In addition, a real benchmarking example of an extended Kalman filter for pose estimation from MIMU and camera data is presented.

MODIS Based Estimation of Forest Aboveground Biomass in China.

PubMed

Yin, Guodong; Zhang, Yuan; Sun, Yan; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Piao, Shilong

2015-01-01

Accurate estimation of forest biomass C stock is essential to understand carbon cycles. However, current estimates of Chinese forest biomass are mostly based on inventory-based timber volumes and empirical conversion factors at the provincial scale, which could introduce large uncertainties in forest biomass estimation. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of Chinese forest aboveground biomass from 2001 to 2013 at a spatial resolution of 1 km by integrating a recently reviewed plot-level ground-measured forest aboveground biomass database with geospatial information from 1-km Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) dataset in a machine learning algorithm (the model tree ensemble, MTE). We show that Chinese forest aboveground biomass is 8.56 Pg C, which is mainly contributed by evergreen needle-leaf forests and deciduous broadleaf forests. The mean forest aboveground biomass density is 56.1 Mg C ha-1, with high values observed in temperate humid regions. The responses of forest aboveground biomass density to mean annual temperature are closely tied to water conditions; that is, negative responses dominate regions with mean annual precipitation less than 1300 mm y-1 and positive responses prevail in regions with mean annual precipitation higher than 2800 mm y-1. During the 2000s, the forests in China sequestered C by 61.9 Tg C y-1, and this C sink is mainly distributed in north China and may be attributed to warming climate, rising CO2 concentration, N deposition, and growth of young forests.

MODIS Based Estimation of Forest Aboveground Biomass in China

PubMed Central

Sun, Yan; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Piao, Shilong

2015-01-01

Accurate estimation of forest biomass C stock is essential to understand carbon cycles. However, current estimates of Chinese forest biomass are mostly based on inventory-based timber volumes and empirical conversion factors at the provincial scale, which could introduce large uncertainties in forest biomass estimation. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of Chinese forest aboveground biomass from 2001 to 2013 at a spatial resolution of 1 km by integrating a recently reviewed plot-level ground-measured forest aboveground biomass database with geospatial information from 1-km Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) dataset in a machine learning algorithm (the model tree ensemble, MTE). We show that Chinese forest aboveground biomass is 8.56 Pg C, which is mainly contributed by evergreen needle-leaf forests and deciduous broadleaf forests. The mean forest aboveground biomass density is 56.1 Mg C ha−1, with high values observed in temperate humid regions. The responses of forest aboveground biomass density to mean annual temperature are closely tied to water conditions; that is, negative responses dominate regions with mean annual precipitation less than 1300 mm y−1 and positive responses prevail in regions with mean annual precipitation higher than 2800 mm y−1. During the 2000s, the forests in China sequestered C by 61.9 Tg C y−1, and this C sink is mainly distributed in north China and may be attributed to warming climate, rising CO2 concentration, N deposition, and growth of young forests. PMID:26115195

Residual uncertainty estimation using instance-based learning with applications to hydrologic forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wani, Omar; Beckers, Joost V. L.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

2017-08-01

A non-parametric method is applied to quantify residual uncertainty in hydrologic streamflow forecasting. This method acts as a post-processor on deterministic model forecasts and generates a residual uncertainty distribution. Based on instance-based learning, it uses a k nearest-neighbour search for similar historical hydrometeorological conditions to determine uncertainty intervals from a set of historical errors, i.e. discrepancies between past forecast and observation. The performance of this method is assessed using test cases of hydrologic forecasting in two UK rivers: the Severn and Brue. Forecasts in retrospect were made and their uncertainties were estimated using kNN resampling and two alternative uncertainty estimators: quantile regression (QR) and uncertainty estimation based on local errors and clustering (UNEEC). Results show that kNN uncertainty estimation produces accurate and narrow uncertainty intervals with good probability coverage. Analysis also shows that the performance of this technique depends on the choice of search space. Nevertheless, the accuracy and reliability of uncertainty intervals generated using kNN resampling are at least comparable to those produced by QR and UNEEC. It is concluded that kNN uncertainty estimation is an interesting alternative to other post-processors, like QR and UNEEC, for estimating forecast uncertainty. Apart from its concept being simple and well understood, an advantage of this method is that it is relatively easy to implement.

Robust Regression for Slope Estimation in Curriculum-Based Measurement Progress Monitoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mercer, Sterett H.; Lyons, Alina F.; Johnston, Lauren E.; Millhoff, Courtney L.

2015-01-01

Although ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression has been identified as a preferred method to calculate rates of improvement for individual students during curriculum-based measurement (CBM) progress monitoring, OLS slope estimates are sensitive to the presence of extreme values. Robust estimators have been developed that are less biased by…

Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates

PubMed Central

Curtis, Caroline A.; Bradley, Bethany A.

2016-01-01

Background Although increasingly sophisticated environmental measures are being applied to species distributions models, the focus remains on using climatic data to provide estimates of habitat suitability. Climatic tolerance estimates based on expert knowledge are available for a wide range of plants via the USDA PLANTS database. We aim to test how climatic tolerance inferred from plant distribution records relates to tolerance estimated by experts. Further, we use this information to identify circumstances when species distributions are more likely to approximate climatic tolerance. Methods We compiled expert knowledge estimates of minimum and maximum precipitation and minimum temperature tolerance for over 1800 conservation plant species from the ‘plant characteristics’ information in the USDA PLANTS database. We derived climatic tolerance from distribution data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity and Information Facility (GBIF) and corresponding climate from WorldClim. We compared expert-derived climatic tolerance to empirical estimates to find the difference between their inferred climate niches (ΔCN), and tested whether ΔCN was influenced by growth form or range size. Results Climate niches calculated from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based tolerance estimates (Mann-Whitney p values << 0.001). The average plant could tolerate 24 mm lower minimum precipitation, 14 mm higher maximum precipitation, and 7° C lower minimum temperatures based on distribution data relative to expert-based tolerance estimates. Species with larger ranges had greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and minimum temperature. For maximum precipitation and minimum temperature, forbs and grasses tended to have larger ΔCN while grasses and trees had larger ΔCN for minimum precipitation. Conclusion Our results show that distribution data are consistently broader than USDA PLANTS experts’ knowledge and likely provide more robust estimates of climatic

Tumor response estimation in radar-based microwave breast cancer detection.

PubMed

Kurrant, Douglas J; Fear, Elise C; Westwick, David T

2008-12-01

Radar-based microwave imaging techniques have been proposed for early stage breast cancer detection. A considerable challenge for the successful implementation of these techniques is the reduction of clutter, or components of the signal originating from objects other than the tumor. In particular, the reduction of clutter from the late-time scattered fields is required in order to detect small (subcentimeter diameter) tumors. In this paper, a method to estimate the tumor response contained in the late-time scattered fields is presented. The method uses a parametric function to model the tumor response. A maximum a posteriori estimation approach is used to evaluate the optimal values for the estimates of the parameters. A pattern classification technique is then used to validate the estimation. The ability of the algorithm to estimate a tumor response is demonstrated by using both experimental and simulated data obtained with a tissue sensing adaptive radar system.

Improvement of Accuracy for Background Noise Estimation Method Based on TPE-AE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itai, Akitoshi; Yasukawa, Hiroshi

This paper proposes a method of a background noise estimation based on the tensor product expansion with a median and a Monte carlo simulation. We have shown that a tensor product expansion with absolute error method is effective to estimate a background noise, however, a background noise might not be estimated by using conventional method properly. In this paper, it is shown that the estimate accuracy can be improved by using proposed methods.

Quantifying the Economic Value and Quality of Life Impact of Earlier Influenza Vaccination

PubMed Central

Lee, Bruce Y.; Bartsch, Sarah M.; Brown, Shawn T.; Cooley, Philip; Wheaton, William D.; Zimmerman, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Background Influenza vaccination is administered throughout the influenza disease season, even as late as March. Given such timing, what is the value of vaccinating the population earlier than currently being practiced? Methods We used real data on when individuals were vaccinated in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, and the following 2 models to determine the value of vaccinating individuals earlier (by the end of September, October, and November): Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED), an agent-based model (ABM), and FluEcon, our influenza economic model that translates cases from the ABM to outcomes and costs [health care and lost productivity costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)]. We varied the reproductive number (R0) from 1.2 to 1.6. Results Applying the current timing of vaccinations averted 223,761 influenza cases, $16.3 million in direct health care costs, $50.0 million in productivity losses, and 804 in QALYs, compared with no vaccination (February peak, R0 1.2). When the population does not have preexisting immunity and the influenza season peaks in February (R0 1.2–1.6), moving individuals who currently received the vaccine after September to the end of September could avert an additional 9634–17,794 influenza cases, $0.6–$1.4 million in direct costs, $2.1–$4.0 million in productivity losses, and 35–64 QALYs. Moving the vaccination of just children to September (R0 1.2–1.6) averted 11,366–1660 influenza cases, $0.6–$0.03 million in direct costs, $2.3–$0.2 million in productivity losses, and 42–8 QALYs. Moving the season peak to December increased these benefits, whereas increasing preexisting immunity reduced these benefits. Conclusion Even though many people are vaccinated well after September/October, they likely are still vaccinated early enough to provide substantial cost-savings. PMID:25590676

Two-pass smoother based on the SVSF estimation strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gadsden, S. A.; Al-Shabi, M.; Kirubarajan, T.

2015-05-01

The smooth variable structure filter (SVSF) has seen significant development and research activity in recent years. It is based on sliding mode concepts, which utilizes a switching gain that brings an inherent amount of stability to the estimation process. In this paper, the SVSF is reformulated to present a two-pass smoother based on the SVSF gain. The proposed method is applied on an aerospace flight surface actuator, and the results are compared with the popular Kalman-based two-pass smoother.

A Review of Quality of Life after Predictive Testing for and Earlier Identification of Neurodegenerative Diseases

PubMed Central

Paulsen, Jane S.; Nance, Martha; Kim, Ji-In; Carlozzi, Noelle E.; Panegyres, Peter K.; Erwin, Cheryl; Goh, Anita; McCusker, Elizabeth; Williams, Janet K.

2013-01-01

The past decade has witnessed an explosion of evidence suggesting that many neurodegenerative diseases can be detected years, if not decades, earlier than previously thought. To date, these scientific advances have not provoked any parallel translational or clinical improvements. There is an urgency to capitalize on this momentum so earlier detection of disease can be more readily translated into improved health-related quality of life for families at risk for, or suffering with, neurodegenerative diseases. In this review, we discuss health-related quality of life (HRQOL) measurement in neurodegenerative diseases and the importance of these “patient reported outcomes” for all clinical research. Next, we address HRQOL following early identification or predictive genetic testing in some neurodegenerative diseases: Huntington disease, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, Dementia with Lewy bodies, frontotemporal dementia, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, prion diseases, hereditary ataxias, Dentatorubral-pallidoluysian atrophy and Wilson's disease. After a brief report of available direct-to-consumer genetic tests, we address the juxtaposition of earlier disease identification with assumed reluctance towards predictive genetic testing. Forty-one studies examining health related outcomes following predictive genetic testing for neurodegenerative disease suggested that (a) extreme or catastrophic outcomes are rare; (b) consequences commonly include transiently increased anxiety and/or depression; (c) most participants report no regret; (d) many persons report extensive benefits to receiving genetic information; and (e) stigmatization and discrimination for genetic diseases are poorly understood and policy and laws are needed. Caution is appropriate for earlier identification of neurodegenerative diseases but findings suggest further progress is safe, feasible and likely to advance clinical care. PMID:24036231

Estimating and validating ground-based timber harvesting production through computer simulation

Treesearch

Jingxin Wang; Chris B. LeDoux

2003-01-01

Estimating ground-based timber harvesting systems production with an object oriented methodology was investigated. The estimation model developed generates stands of trees, simulates chain saw, drive-to-tree feller-buncher, swing-to-tree single-grip harvester felling, and grapple skidder and forwarder extraction activities, and analyzes costs and productivity. It also...

Polynomial Phase Estimation Based on Adaptive Short-Time Fourier Transform

PubMed Central

Jing, Fulong; Zhang, Chunjie; Si, Weijian; Wang, Yu; Jiao, Shuhong

2018-01-01

Polynomial phase signals (PPSs) have numerous applications in many fields including radar, sonar, geophysics, and radio communication systems. Therefore, estimation of PPS coefficients is very important. In this paper, a novel approach for PPS parameters estimation based on adaptive short-time Fourier transform (ASTFT), called the PPS-ASTFT estimator, is proposed. Using the PPS-ASTFT estimator, both one-dimensional and multi-dimensional searches and error propagation problems, which widely exist in PPSs field, are avoided. In the proposed algorithm, the instantaneous frequency (IF) is estimated by S-transform (ST), which can preserve information on signal phase and provide a variable resolution similar to the wavelet transform (WT). The width of the ASTFT analysis window is equal to the local stationary length, which is measured by the instantaneous frequency gradient (IFG). The IFG is calculated by the principal component analysis (PCA), which is robust to the noise. Moreover, to improve estimation accuracy, a refinement strategy is presented to estimate signal parameters. Since the PPS-ASTFT avoids parameter search, the proposed algorithm can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. The estimation performance, computational cost, and implementation of the PPS-ASTFT are also analyzed. The conducted numerical simulations support our theoretical results and demonstrate an excellent statistical performance of the proposed algorithm. PMID:29438317

Polynomial Phase Estimation Based on Adaptive Short-Time Fourier Transform.

PubMed

Jing, Fulong; Zhang, Chunjie; Si, Weijian; Wang, Yu; Jiao, Shuhong

2018-02-13

Polynomial phase signals (PPSs) have numerous applications in many fields including radar, sonar, geophysics, and radio communication systems. Therefore, estimation of PPS coefficients is very important. In this paper, a novel approach for PPS parameters estimation based on adaptive short-time Fourier transform (ASTFT), called the PPS-ASTFT estimator, is proposed. Using the PPS-ASTFT estimator, both one-dimensional and multi-dimensional searches and error propagation problems, which widely exist in PPSs field, are avoided. In the proposed algorithm, the instantaneous frequency (IF) is estimated by S-transform (ST), which can preserve information on signal phase and provide a variable resolution similar to the wavelet transform (WT). The width of the ASTFT analysis window is equal to the local stationary length, which is measured by the instantaneous frequency gradient (IFG). The IFG is calculated by the principal component analysis (PCA), which is robust to the noise. Moreover, to improve estimation accuracy, a refinement strategy is presented to estimate signal parameters. Since the PPS-ASTFT avoids parameter search, the proposed algorithm can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. The estimation performance, computational cost, and implementation of the PPS-ASTFT are also analyzed. The conducted numerical simulations support our theoretical results and demonstrate an excellent statistical performance of the proposed algorithm.

A Novel Continuous Blood Pressure Estimation Approach Based on Data Mining Techniques.

PubMed

Miao, Fen; Fu, Nan; Zhang, Yuan-Ting; Ding, Xiao-Rong; Hong, Xi; He, Qingyun; Li, Ye

2017-11-01

Continuous blood pressure (BP) estimation using pulse transit time (PTT) is a promising method for unobtrusive BP measurement. However, the accuracy of this approach must be improved for it to be viable for a wide range of applications. This study proposes a novel continuous BP estimation approach that combines data mining techniques with a traditional mechanism-driven model. First, 14 features derived from simultaneous electrocardiogram and photoplethysmogram signals were extracted for beat-to-beat BP estimation. A genetic algorithm-based feature selection method was then used to select BP indicators for each subject. Multivariate linear regression and support vector regression were employed to develop the BP model. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed approach were validated for static, dynamic, and follow-up performance. Experimental results based on 73 subjects showed that the proposed approach exhibited excellent accuracy in static BP estimation, with a correlation coefficient and mean error of 0.852 and -0.001 ± 3.102 mmHg for systolic BP, and 0.790 and -0.004 ± 2.199 mmHg for diastolic BP. Similar performance was observed for dynamic BP estimation. The robustness results indicated that the estimation accuracy was lower by a certain degree one day after model construction but was relatively stable from one day to six months after construction. The proposed approach is superior to the state-of-the-art PTT-based model for an approximately 2-mmHg reduction in the standard derivation at different time intervals, thus providing potentially novel insights for cuffless BP estimation.

AN EVALUATION OF TWO GROUND-BASED CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES COMPARED TO CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY

EPA Science Inventory

Two ground-based canopy closure estimation techniques, the Spherical Densitometer (SD) and the Vertical Tube (VT), were compared for the effect of deciduous understory on dominant/co-dominant crown closure estimates in even-aged loblolly (Pinus taeda) pine stands located in the N...

AN EVALUATION OF TWO GROUND-BASED CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES COMPARED TO CROWN CLOSURE ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY

EPA Science Inventory

Two ground-based canopy closure estimation techniques, the Spherical Densitometer (SD) and the Vertical Tube (VT), were compared for the effect of deciduous understory on dominantlco-dominant crown closure estimates in even-aged loblolly (Pinus taeda) pine stands located in the N...

Population Estimation in Singapore Based on Remote Sensing and Open Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, H.; Cao, K.; Wang, P.

2017-09-01

Population estimation statistics are widely used in government, commercial and educational sectors for a variety of purposes. With growing emphases on real-time and detailed population information, data users nowadays have switched from traditional census data to more technology-based data source such as LiDAR point cloud and High-Resolution Satellite Imagery. Nevertheless, such data are costly and periodically unavailable. In this paper, the authors use West Coast District, Singapore as a case study to investigate the applicability and effectiveness of using satellite image from Google Earth for extraction of building footprint and population estimation. At the same time, volunteered geographic information (VGI) is also utilized as ancillary data for building footprint extraction. Open data such as Open Street Map OSM could be employed to enhance the extraction process. In view of challenges in building shadow extraction, this paper discusses several methods including buffer, mask and shape index to improve accuracy. It also illustrates population estimation methods based on building height and number of floor estimates. The results show that the accuracy level of housing unit method on population estimation can reach 92.5 %, which is remarkably accurate. This paper thus provides insights into techniques for building extraction and fine-scale population estimation, which will benefit users such as urban planners in terms of policymaking and urban planning of Singapore.

Does Sentinel multi sensor data offer synergy in Improving Accuracy of Aboveground Biomass Estimate of Dense Tropical Forest? - Utility of Decision Tree Based Machine Learning Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, S. M.; Behera, M. D.

2017-12-01

Forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is an important factor for preparation of global policy making decisions to tackle the impact of climate change. Several previous studies has concluded that remote sensing methods are more suitable for estimating forest biomass on regional scale. Among all available remote sensing data and methods, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data in combination with decision tree based machine learning algorithms has shown better promise in estimating higher biomass values. There aren't many studies done for biomass estimation of dense Indian tropical forests with high biomass density. In this study aboveground biomass was estimated for two major tree species, Sal (Shorea robusta) and Teak (Tectona grandis), of Katerniaghat Wildlife Sanctuary, a tropical forest situated in northern India. Biomass was estimated by combining C-band SAR data from Sentinel-1A satellite, vegetation indices produced using Sentinel-2A data and ground inventory plots. Along with SAR backscatter value, SAR texture images were also used as input as earlier studies had found that image texture has a correlation with vegetation biomass. Decision tree based nonlinear machine learning algorithms were used in place of parametric regression models for establishing relationship between fields measured values and remotely sensed parameters. Using random forest model with a combination of vegetation indices with SAR backscatter as predictor variables shows best result for Sal forest, with a coefficient of determination value of 0.71 and a RMSE value of 105.027 t/ha. In teak forest also best result can be found in the same combination but for stochastic gradient boosted model with a coefficient of determination value of 0.6 and a RMSE value of 79.45 t/ha. These results are mostly better than the results of other studies done for similar kind of forests. This study shows that Sentinel series satellite data has exceptional capabilities in estimating dense forest AGB and machine

Heading Estimation for Pedestrian Dead Reckoning Based on Robust Adaptive Kalman Filtering.

PubMed

Wu, Dongjin; Xia, Linyuan; Geng, Jijun

2018-06-19

Pedestrian dead reckoning (PDR) using smart phone-embedded micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) sensors plays a key role in ubiquitous localization indoors and outdoors. However, as a relative localization method, it suffers from the problem of error accumulation which prevents it from long term independent running. Heading estimation error is one of the main location error sources, and therefore, in order to improve the location tracking performance of the PDR method in complex environments, an approach based on robust adaptive Kalman filtering (RAKF) for estimating accurate headings is proposed. In our approach, outputs from gyroscope, accelerometer, and magnetometer sensors are fused using the solution of Kalman filtering (KF) that the heading measurements derived from accelerations and magnetic field data are used to correct the states integrated from angular rates. In order to identify and control measurement outliers, a maximum likelihood-type estimator (M-estimator)-based model is used. Moreover, an adaptive factor is applied to resist the negative effects of state model disturbances. Extensive experiments under static and dynamic conditions were conducted in indoor environments. The experimental results demonstrate the proposed approach provides more accurate heading estimates and supports more robust and dynamic adaptive location tracking, compared with methods based on conventional KF.

New, national bottom-up estimate for tree-based biological ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Nitrogen is a limiting nutrient in many ecosystems, but is also a chief pollutant from human activity. Quantifying human impacts on the nitrogen cycle and investigating natural ecosystem nitrogen cycling both require an understanding of the magnitude of nitrogen inputs from biological nitrogen fixation (BNF). A bottom-up approach to estimating BNF—scaling rates up from measurements to broader scales—is attractive because it is rooted in actual BNF measurements. However, bottom-up approaches have been hindered by scaling difficulties, and a recent top-down approach suggested that the previous bottom-up estimate was much too large. Here, we used a bottom-up approach for tree-based BNF, overcoming scaling difficulties with the systematic, immense (>70,000 N-fixing trees) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database. We employed two approaches to estimate species-specific BNF rates: published ecosystem-scale rates (kg N ha-1 yr-1) and published estimates of the percent of N derived from the atmosphere (%Ndfa) combined with FIA-derived growth rates. Species-specific rates can vary for a variety of reasons, so for each approach we examined how different assumptions influenced our results. Specifically, we allowed BNF rates to vary with stand age, N-fixer density, and canopy position (since N-fixation is known to require substantial light).Our estimates from this bottom-up technique are several orders of magnitude lower than previous estimates indicating

Earlier Pulmonary Valve Replacement in Down Syndrome Patients Following Tetralogy of Fallot Repair.

PubMed

Sullivan, Rachel T; Frommelt, Peter C; Hill, Garick D

2017-08-01

The association between Down syndrome and pulmonary hypertension could contribute to more severe pulmonary regurgitation after tetralogy of Fallot repair and possibly earlier pulmonary valve replacement. We compared cardiac magnetic resonance measures of pulmonary regurgitation and right ventricular dilation as well as timing of pulmonary valve replacement between those with and without Down syndrome after tetralogy of Fallot repair. Review of our surgical database from 2000 to 2015 identified patients with tetralogy of Fallot with pulmonary stenosis. Those with Down syndrome were compared to those without. The primary outcome of interest was time from repair to pulmonary valve replacement. Secondary outcomes included pulmonary regurgitation and indexed right ventricular volume on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. The cohort of 284 patients included 35 (12%) with Down syndrome. Transannular patch repair was performed in 210 (74%). Down syndrome showed greater degree of pulmonary regurgitation (55 ± 14 vs. 37 ± 16%, p = 0.01) without a significantly greater rate of right ventricular dilation (p = 0.09). In multivariable analysis, Down syndrome (HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.2-4.5, p = 0.02) and transannular patch repair (HR 5.5, 95% CI 1.7-17.6, p = 0.004) were significant risk factors for valve replacement. Those with Down syndrome had significantly lower freedom from valve replacement (p = 0.03). Down syndrome is associated with an increased degree of pulmonary regurgitation and earlier pulmonary valve replacement after tetralogy of Fallot repair. These patients require earlier assessment by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging to determine timing of pulmonary valve replacement and evaluation for and treatment of preventable causes of pulmonary hypertension.

40 CFR 87.21 - Exhaust emission standards for Tier 4 and earlier engines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Emissions (New Aircraft Gas Turbine Engines) § 87.21 Exhaust emission standards for Tier 4 and earlier... standards. (a) Exhaust emissions of smoke from each new aircraft gas turbine engine of class T8 manufactured... from each new aircraft gas turbine engine of class TF and of rated output of 129 kilonewtons thrust or...

40 CFR 87.21 - Exhaust emission standards for Tier 4 and earlier engines.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Emissions (New Aircraft Gas Turbine Engines) § 87.21 Exhaust emission standards for Tier 4 and earlier... standards. (a) Exhaust emissions of smoke from each new aircraft gas turbine engine of class T8 manufactured... from each new aircraft gas turbine engine of class TF and of rated output of 129 kilonewtons thrust or...

Gross domestic product estimation based on electricity utilization by artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevanović, Mirjana; Vujičić, Slađana; Gajić, Aleksandar M.

2018-01-01

The main goal of the paper was to estimate gross domestic product (GDP) based on electricity estimation by artificial neural network (ANN). The electricity utilization was analyzed based on different sources like renewable, coal and nuclear sources. The ANN network was trained with two training algorithms namely extreme learning method and back-propagation algorithm in order to produce the best prediction results of the GDP. According to the results it can be concluded that the ANN model with extreme learning method could produce the acceptable prediction of the GDP based on the electricity utilization.

A Web-Based System for Bayesian Benchmark Dose Estimation.

PubMed

Shao, Kan; Shapiro, Andrew J

2018-01-11

Benchmark dose (BMD) modeling is an important step in human health risk assessment and is used as the default approach to identify the point of departure for risk assessment. A probabilistic framework for dose-response assessment has been proposed and advocated by various institutions and organizations; therefore, a reliable tool is needed to provide distributional estimates for BMD and other important quantities in dose-response assessment. We developed an online system for Bayesian BMD (BBMD) estimation and compared results from this software with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Benchmark Dose Software (BMDS). The system is built on a Bayesian framework featuring the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for model parameter estimation and BMD calculation, which makes the BBMD system fundamentally different from the currently prevailing BMD software packages. In addition to estimating the traditional BMDs for dichotomous and continuous data, the developed system is also capable of computing model-averaged BMD estimates. A total of 518 dichotomous and 108 continuous data sets extracted from the U.S. EPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database (and similar databases) were used as testing data to compare the estimates from the BBMD and BMDS programs. The results suggest that the BBMD system may outperform the BMDS program in a number of aspects, including fewer failed BMD and BMDL calculations and estimates. The BBMD system is a useful alternative tool for estimating BMD with additional functionalities for BMD analysis based on most recent research. Most importantly, the BBMD has the potential to incorporate prior information to make dose-response modeling more reliable and can provide distributional estimates for important quantities in dose-response assessment, which greatly facilitates the current trend for probabilistic risk assessment. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1289.

Improving estimates of genetic maps: a meta-analysis-based approach.

PubMed

Stewart, William C L

2007-07-01

Inaccurate genetic (or linkage) maps can reduce the power to detect linkage, increase type I error, and distort haplotype and relationship inference. To improve the accuracy of existing maps, I propose a meta-analysis-based method that combines independent map estimates into a single estimate of the linkage map. The method uses the variance of each independent map estimate to combine them efficiently, whether the map estimates use the same set of markers or not. As compared with a joint analysis of the pooled genotype data, the proposed method is attractive for three reasons: (1) it has comparable efficiency to the maximum likelihood map estimate when the pooled data are homogeneous; (2) relative to existing map estimation methods, it can have increased efficiency when the pooled data are heterogeneous; and (3) it avoids the practical difficulties of pooling human subjects data. On the basis of simulated data modeled after two real data sets, the proposed method can reduce the sampling variation of linkage maps commonly used in whole-genome linkage scans. Furthermore, when the independent map estimates are also maximum likelihood estimates, the proposed method performs as well as or better than when they are estimated by the program CRIMAP. Since variance estimates of maps may not always be available, I demonstrate the feasibility of three different variance estimators. Overall, the method should prove useful to investigators who need map positions for markers not contained in publicly available maps, and to those who wish to minimize the negative effects of inaccurate maps. Copyright 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A synthesis of convenience survey and other data to estimate undiagnosed HIV infection among men who have sex with men in England and Wales.

PubMed

Walker, Kate; Seaman, Shaun R; De Angelis, Daniela; Presanis, Anne M; Dodds, Julie P; Johnson, Anne M; Mercey, Danielle; Gill, O Noel; Copas, Andrew J

2011-10-01

Hard-to-reach population subgroups are typically investigated using convenience sampling, which may give biased estimates. Combining information from such surveys, a probability survey and clinic surveillance, can potentially minimize the bias. We developed a methodology to estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) in England and Wales aged 16-44 years in 2003, making fuller use of the available data than earlier work. We performed a synthesis of three data sources: genitourinary medicine clinic surveillance (11 380 tests), a venue-based convenience survey including anonymous HIV testing (3702 MSM) and a general population sexual behaviour survey (134 MSM). A logistic regression model to predict undiagnosed infection was fitted to the convenience survey data and then applied to the MSMs in the population survey to estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed infection in the general MSM population. This estimate was corrected for selection biases in the convenience survey using clinic surveillance data. A sensitivity analysis addressed uncertainty in our assumptions. The estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HIV in MSM was 2.4% [95% confidence interval (95% CI 1.7-3.0%)], and between 1.6% (95% CI 1.1-2.0%) and 3.3% (95% CI 2.4-4.1%) depending on assumptions; corresponding to 5500 (3390-7180), 3610 (2180-4740) and 7570 (4790-9840) men, and undiagnosed fractions of 33, 24 and 40%, respectively. Our estimates are consistent with earlier work that did not make full use of data sources. Reconciling data from multiple sources, including probability-, clinic- and venue-based convenience samples can reduce bias in estimates. This methodology could be applied in other settings to take full advantage of multiple imperfect data sources.

Association of seat belt use with death: a comparison of estimates based on data from police and estimates based on data from trained crash investigators

PubMed Central

Cummings, P

2002-01-01

Objective: Estimates of any protective effect of seat belts could be exaggerated if some crash survivors falsely claimed to police that they were belted in order to avoid a fine. The aim of this study was to determine whether estimates of seat belt effectiveness differed when based on belt use as recorded by the police and belt use determined by trained crash investigators. Design: Matched cohort study. Setting: United States. Subjects: Adult driver-passenger pairs in the same vehicle with at least one death (n=1689) sampled from crashes during 1988–2000; data from the National Accident Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System. Main outcome measure: Risk ratio for death among belted occupants compared with those not belted. Results: Trained investigators determined post-crash seat belt use by vehicle inspections for 92% of the occupants, confidential interviews with survivors for 5%, and medical or autopsy reports for 3%. Using this information, the adjusted risk ratio for belted persons was 0.36 (95% confidence interval 0.29 to 0.46). The risk ratio was also 0.36 using police reported belt use for the same crashes. Conclusions: Estimates of seat belt effects based upon police data were not substantially different from estimates which used data obtained by trained crash investigators who were not police officers. These results were from vehicles in which at least one front seat occupant died; these findings may not apply to estimates which use data from crashes without a death. PMID:12460976

RnaSeqSampleSize: real data based sample size estimation for RNA sequencing.

PubMed

Zhao, Shilin; Li, Chung-I; Guo, Yan; Sheng, Quanhu; Shyr, Yu

2018-05-30

One of the most important and often neglected components of a successful RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) experiment is sample size estimation. A few negative binomial model-based methods have been developed to estimate sample size based on the parameters of a single gene. However, thousands of genes are quantified and tested for differential expression simultaneously in RNA-Seq experiments. Thus, additional issues should be carefully addressed, including the false discovery rate for multiple statistic tests, widely distributed read counts and dispersions for different genes. To solve these issues, we developed a sample size and power estimation method named RnaSeqSampleSize, based on the distributions of gene average read counts and dispersions estimated from real RNA-seq data. Datasets from previous, similar experiments such as the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) can be used as a point of reference. Read counts and their dispersions were estimated from the reference's distribution; using that information, we estimated and summarized the power and sample size. RnaSeqSampleSize is implemented in R language and can be installed from Bioconductor website. A user friendly web graphic interface is provided at http://cqs.mc.vanderbilt.edu/shiny/RnaSeqSampleSize/ . RnaSeqSampleSize provides a convenient and powerful way for power and sample size estimation for an RNAseq experiment. It is also equipped with several unique features, including estimation for interested genes or pathway, power curve visualization, and parameter optimization.

Robust estimation of the proportion of treatment effect explained by surrogate marker information.

PubMed

Parast, Layla; McDermott, Mary M; Tian, Lu

2016-05-10

In randomized treatment studies where the primary outcome requires long follow-up of patients and/or expensive or invasive obtainment procedures, the availability of a surrogate marker that could be used to estimate the treatment effect and could potentially be observed earlier than the primary outcome would allow researchers to make conclusions regarding the treatment effect with less required follow-up time and resources. The Prentice criterion for a valid surrogate marker requires that a test for treatment effect on the surrogate marker also be a valid test for treatment effect on the primary outcome of interest. Based on this criterion, methods have been developed to define and estimate the proportion of treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained by the treatment effect on the surrogate marker. These methods aim to identify useful statistical surrogates that capture a large proportion of the treatment effect. However, current methods to estimate this proportion usually require restrictive model assumptions that may not hold in practice and thus may lead to biased estimates of this quantity. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric procedure to estimate the proportion of treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained by the treatment effect on a potential surrogate marker and extend this procedure to a setting with multiple surrogate markers. We compare our approach with previously proposed model-based approaches and propose a variance estimation procedure based on a perturbation-resampling method. Simulation studies demonstrate that the procedure performs well in finite samples and outperforms model-based procedures when the specified models are not correct. We illustrate our proposed procedure using a data set from a randomized study investigating a group-mediated cognitive behavioral intervention for peripheral artery disease participants. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Extended-Image Tracking Technique Based on the Maximum Likelihood Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsou, Haiping; Yan, Tsun-Yee

2000-01-01

This paper describes an extended-image tracking technique based on the maximum likelihood estimation. The target image is assume to have a known profile covering more than one element of a focal plane detector array. It is assumed that the relative position between the imager and the target is changing with time and the received target image has each of its pixels disturbed by an independent additive white Gaussian noise. When a rotation-invariant movement between imager and target is considered, the maximum likelihood based image tracking technique described in this paper is a closed-loop structure capable of providing iterative update of the movement estimate by calculating the loop feedback signals from a weighted correlation between the currently received target image and the previously estimated reference image in the transform domain. The movement estimate is then used to direct the imager to closely follow the moving target. This image tracking technique has many potential applications, including free-space optical communications and astronomy where accurate and stabilized optical pointing is essential.

A Temperature-Based Bioimpedance Correction for Water Loss Estimation During Sports.

PubMed

Ring, Matthias; Lohmueller, Clemens; Rauh, Manfred; Mester, Joachim; Eskofier, Bjoern M

2016-11-01

The amount of total body water (TBW) can be estimated based on bioimpedance measurements of the human body. In sports, TBW estimations are of importance because mild water losses can impair muscular strength and aerobic endurance. Severe water losses can even be life threatening. TBW estimations based on bioimpedance, however, fail during sports because the increased body temperature corrupts bioimpedance measurements. Therefore, this paper proposes a machine learning method that eliminates the effects of increased temperature on bioimpedance and, consequently, reveals the changes in bioimpedance that are due to TBW loss. This is facilitated by utilizing changes in skin and core temperature. The method was evaluated in a study in which bioimpedance, temperature, and TBW loss were recorded every 15 min during a 2-h running workout. The evaluation demonstrated that the proposed method is able to reduce the error of TBW loss estimation by up to 71%, compared to the state of art. In the future, the proposed method in combination with portable bioimpedance devices might facilitate the development of wearable systems for continuous and noninvasive TBW loss monitoring during sports.

Thermal hydraulic simulations, error estimation and parameter sensitivity studies in Drekar::CFD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Thomas Michael; Shadid, John N.; Pawlowski, Roger P.

2014-01-01

This report describes work directed towards completion of the Thermal Hydraulics Methods (THM) CFD Level 3 Milestone THM.CFD.P7.05 for the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) Nuclear Hub effort. The focus of this milestone was to demonstrate the thermal hydraulics and adjoint based error estimation and parameter sensitivity capabilities in the CFD code called Drekar::CFD. This milestone builds upon the capabilities demonstrated in three earlier milestones; THM.CFD.P4.02 [12], completed March, 31, 2012, THM.CFD.P5.01 [15] completed June 30, 2012 and THM.CFD.P5.01 [11] completed on October 31, 2012.

Health Disparities in Mid-to-Late Life: The Role of Earlier Life Family and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Conditions

PubMed Central

Johnson, Rucker C.; Schoeni, Robert F.; Rogowski, Jeannette A.

2012-01-01

The relationship between neighborhoods of residence in young adulthood and health in mid to late life in the United States are examined using the 1968-2005 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). The sample consists of persons who were aged 20-30 in 1968 and are followed for a period of 38 years (N=2,730). Four-level hierarchical random effects models of self-assessed general health status as a function of individual, family, and neighborhood factors are estimated. Using the original sampling design of the PSID, we analyze adult health trajectories of married couples and neighbors followed from young adulthood through elderly ages to assess the magnitudes of the possible causal effects of family and neighborhood characteristics in young adulthood on health in mid to late life. Estimates suggest disparities in neighborhood conditions in young adulthood account for one-quarter of the variation in mid-to-late-life health. Living in poor neighborhoods during young adulthood is strongly associated with negative health outcomes in later life. This result is robust even in the presence of a reasonably large amount of potential unobservable individual and family factors that may significantly affect both neighborhood of residence and subsequent health status. Racial differences in health status in mid to late life are also associated with family and neighborhood socioeconomic conditions earlier in life. Three quarters of the black-white gap in health status at ages over 55 can be accounted for by differences in childhood socioeconomic status and neighborhood and family factors in young adulthood. PMID:22212443

Yield estimation of sugarcane based on agrometeorological-spectral models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudorff, Bernardo Friedrich Theodor; Batista, Getulio Teixeira

1990-01-01

This work has the objective to assess the performance of a yield estimation model for sugarcane (Succharum officinarum). The model uses orbital gathered spectral data along with yield estimated from an agrometeorological model. The test site includes the sugarcane plantations of the Barra Grande Plant located in Lencois Paulista municipality in Sao Paulo State. Production data of four crop years were analyzed. Yield data observed in the first crop year (1983/84) were regressed against spectral and agrometeorological data of that same year. This provided the model to predict the yield for the following crop year i.e., 1984/85. The model to predict the yield of subsequent years (up to 1987/88) were developed similarly, incorporating all previous years data. The yield estimations obtained from these models explained 69, 54, and 50 percent of the yield variation in the 1984/85, 1985/86, and 1986/87 crop years, respectively. The accuracy of yield estimations based on spectral data only (vegetation index model) and on agrometeorological data only (agrometeorological model) were also investigated.

A comparison of LMP-based and ultrasound-based estimates of gestational age using linked California livebirth and prenatal screening records.

PubMed

Dietz, Patricia M; England, Lucinda J; Callaghan, William M; Pearl, Michelle; Wier, Megan L; Kharrazi, Martin

2007-09-01

Although early ultrasound (<20 weeks' gestation) systematically underestimates the gestational age of smaller fetuses by approximately 1-2 days, this bias is relatively small compared with the large error introduced by last menstrual period (LMP) estimates of gestation, as evidenced by the number of implausible birthweight-for-gestational age. To characterise this misclassification, we compared gestational age estimates based on LMP from California birth certificates with those based on early ultrasound from a California linked Statewide Expanded Alpha-fetoprotein Screening Program (XAFP). The final sample comprised 165 908 women. Birthweight distributions were plotted by gestational age; sensitivity and positive predictive value for preterm rates according to LMP were calculated using ultrasound as the 'gold standard'. For gestational ages 20-27 and 28-31 weeks, the LMP-based birthweight distributions were bimodal, whereas the ultrasound-based distributions were unimodal, but had long right tails. At 32-36 weeks, the LMP distribution was wider, flatter, and shifted to the right, compared with the ultrasound distribution. LMP vs. ultrasound estimates were, respectively, 8.7% vs. 7.9% preterm (<37 weeks), 81.2% vs. 91.0% term (37-41 weeks), and 10.1% vs. 1.1% post-term (>or=42 weeks). The sensitivity of the LMP-based preterm birth estimate was 64.3%, and the positive predictive value was 58.7%. Overall, 17.2% of the records had estimates with an absolute difference of >14 days. The groups most likely to have inconsistent gestational age estimates included African American and Hispanic women, younger and less-educated women, and those who entered prenatal care after the second month of pregnancy. In conclusion, we found substantial misclassification of LMP-based gestational age. The 2003 revised US Standard Certificate of Live Birth includes a new gestational age item, the obstetric estimate. It will be important to assess whether this estimate addresses the problems

CO Component Estimation Based on the Independent Component Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichiki, Kiyotomo; Kaji, Ryohei; Yamamoto, Hiroaki; Takeuchi, Tsutomu T.; Fukui, Yasuo

2014-01-01

Fast Independent Component Analysis (FastICA) is a component separation algorithm based on the levels of non-Gaussianity. Here we apply FastICA to the component separation problem of the microwave background, including carbon monoxide (CO) line emissions that are found to contaminate the PLANCK High Frequency Instrument (HFI) data. Specifically, we prepare 100 GHz, 143 GHz, and 217 GHz mock microwave sky maps, which include galactic thermal dust, NANTEN CO line, and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) emissions, and then estimate the independent components based on the kurtosis. We find that FastICA can successfully estimate the CO component as the first independent component in our deflection algorithm because its distribution has the largest degree of non-Gaussianity among the components. Thus, FastICA can be a promising technique to extract CO-like components without prior assumptions about their distributions and frequency dependences.

CO component estimation based on the independent component analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ichiki, Kiyotomo; Kaji, Ryohei; Yamamoto, Hiroaki

2014-01-01

Fast Independent Component Analysis (FastICA) is a component separation algorithm based on the levels of non-Gaussianity. Here we apply FastICA to the component separation problem of the microwave background, including carbon monoxide (CO) line emissions that are found to contaminate the PLANCK High Frequency Instrument (HFI) data. Specifically, we prepare 100 GHz, 143 GHz, and 217 GHz mock microwave sky maps, which include galactic thermal dust, NANTEN CO line, and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) emissions, and then estimate the independent components based on the kurtosis. We find that FastICA can successfully estimate the CO component as the first independentmore » component in our deflection algorithm because its distribution has the largest degree of non-Gaussianity among the components. Thus, FastICA can be a promising technique to extract CO-like components without prior assumptions about their distributions and frequency dependences.« less

Telemetry-based mortality estimates of juvenile spot in two North Carolina estuarine creeks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedl, Sarah E.; Buckel, Jeffery A.; Hightower, Joseph E.; Scharf, Frederick S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

2013-01-01

We estimated natural mortality rates (M) of age-1 Spot Leiostomus xanthurus by using a sonic telemetry approach. Sonic transmitters were surgically implanted into a total of 123 age-1 Spot in two North Carolina estuarine creeks during spring 2009 and 2010, and the fish were monitored by using a stationary acoustic receiver array and manual tracking. Fates of telemetered Spot were inferred based on telemetry information from estimated locations and swimming speeds. Potential competitors of age-1 Spot were assessed through simultaneous otter trawl sampling, while potential predators of Spot were collected using gill nets and trammel nets. The number of inferred natural mortalities was zero in 2009 (based on 29 telemetered Spot at risk) and four in 2010 (based on 52 fish at risk), with fish being at risk for up to about 70 d each year. Catches of potential competitors or predators did not differ between years, and age-1 Spot were not found in analyzed stomach contents of potential predators. Our estimated 30-d M of 0.03 (95% credible interval = 0.01–0.07) was lower than that predicted from weight-based (M = 0.07) and life-history-based (M = 0.06–0.36) estimates. Our field-based estimate of M for age-1 Spot in this estuarine system can assist in the assessment and management of Spot by allowing a direct comparison with M-values predicted from fish size or life history characteristics. The field telemetry and statistical analysis techniques developed here provide guidance for future telemetry studies of relatively small fish in open, dynamic habitat systems, as they highlight strengths and weaknesses of using a telemetry approach to estimate M.

MRI-Based Intelligence Quotient (IQ) Estimation with Sparse Learning

PubMed Central

Wang, Liye; Wee, Chong-Yaw; Suk, Heung-Il; Tang, Xiaoying; Shen, Dinggang

2015-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel framework for IQ estimation using Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) data. In particular, we devise a new feature selection method based on an extended dirty model for jointly considering both element-wise sparsity and group-wise sparsity. Meanwhile, due to the absence of large dataset with consistent scanning protocols for the IQ estimation, we integrate multiple datasets scanned from different sites with different scanning parameters and protocols. In this way, there is large variability in these different datasets. To address this issue, we design a two-step procedure for 1) first identifying the possible scanning site for each testing subject and 2) then estimating the testing subject’s IQ by using a specific estimator designed for that scanning site. We perform two experiments to test the performance of our method by using the MRI data collected from 164 typically developing children between 6 and 15 years old. In the first experiment, we use a multi-kernel Support Vector Regression (SVR) for estimating IQ values, and obtain an average correlation coefficient of 0.718 and also an average root mean square error of 8.695 between the true IQs and the estimated ones. In the second experiment, we use a single-kernel SVR for IQ estimation, and achieve an average correlation coefficient of 0.684 and an average root mean square error of 9.166. All these results show the effectiveness of using imaging data for IQ prediction, which is rarely done in the field according to our knowledge. PMID:25822851

MRI-based intelligence quotient (IQ) estimation with sparse learning.

PubMed

Wang, Liye; Wee, Chong-Yaw; Suk, Heung-Il; Tang, Xiaoying; Shen, Dinggang

2015-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel framework for IQ estimation using Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) data. In particular, we devise a new feature selection method based on an extended dirty model for jointly considering both element-wise sparsity and group-wise sparsity. Meanwhile, due to the absence of large dataset with consistent scanning protocols for the IQ estimation, we integrate multiple datasets scanned from different sites with different scanning parameters and protocols. In this way, there is large variability in these different datasets. To address this issue, we design a two-step procedure for 1) first identifying the possible scanning site for each testing subject and 2) then estimating the testing subject's IQ by using a specific estimator designed for that scanning site. We perform two experiments to test the performance of our method by using the MRI data collected from 164 typically developing children between 6 and 15 years old. In the first experiment, we use a multi-kernel Support Vector Regression (SVR) for estimating IQ values, and obtain an average correlation coefficient of 0.718 and also an average root mean square error of 8.695 between the true IQs and the estimated ones. In the second experiment, we use a single-kernel SVR for IQ estimation, and achieve an average correlation coefficient of 0.684 and an average root mean square error of 9.166. All these results show the effectiveness of using imaging data for IQ prediction, which is rarely done in the field according to our knowledge.

Earlier predictors of eating disorder symptoms in 9-year-old children. A longitudinal study.

PubMed

Parkinson, Kathryn N; Drewett, Robert F; Le Couteur, Ann S; Adamson, Ashley J

2012-08-01

The aim of the study was to examine predictors of eating disorder symptoms in a population based sample at the earliest age at which they can be measured using the Children's Eating Attitudes Test. Data were collected from the longitudinal Gateshead Millennium Study cohort; 609 children participated in the 7 year data sweep (and their mothers and teachers), and 589 children participated in the 9 year data sweep. Eating disorder symptoms at 9 years were higher in boys, and in children from more deprived families. Higher eating disorder symptoms were associated with more body dissatisfaction at 9 years. Higher symptoms were predicted by higher levels of dietary restraint and of emotional symptoms, but not greater body dissatisfaction, 2 years earlier. The study showed that some correlates of high eating disorder symptoms found in adolescents and adults are also found in children, before the rise in diagnosable eating disorders over the pubertal period. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

H∞ state estimation of stochastic memristor-based neural networks with time-varying delays.

PubMed

Bao, Haibo; Cao, Jinde; Kurths, Jürgen; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Ahmad, Bashir

2018-03-01

This paper addresses the problem of H ∞ state estimation for a class of stochastic memristor-based neural networks with time-varying delays. Under the framework of Filippov solution, the stochastic memristor-based neural networks are transformed into systems with interval parameters. The present paper is the first to investigate the H ∞ state estimation problem for continuous-time Itô-type stochastic memristor-based neural networks. By means of Lyapunov functionals and some stochastic technique, sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the estimation error system is asymptotically stable in the mean square with a prescribed H ∞ performance. An explicit expression of the state estimator gain is given in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Compared with other results, our results reduce control gain and control cost effectively. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the theoretical results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination of structure tilting in magnetized plasmas—Time delay estimation in two dimensions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guszejnov, Dávid; Bencze, Attila; Zoletnik, Sándor

2013-06-15

Time delay estimation (TDE) is a well-known technique to investigate poloidal flows in fusion plasmas. The present work is an extension of the earlier works of Bencze and Zoletnik [Phys. Plasmas 12, 052323 (2005)] and Tal et al.[Phys. Plasmas 18, 122304 (2011)]. From the prospective of the comparison of theory and experiment, it seems to be important to estimate the statistical properties of the TDE based on solid mathematical groundings. This paper provides analytic derivation of the variance of the TDE using a two-dimensional model for coherent turbulent structures in the plasma edge and also gives an explicit method formore » determination of the tilt angle of structures. As a demonstration, this method is then applied to the results of a quasi-2D Beam Emission Spectroscopy measurement performed at the TEXTOR tokamak.« less

Daily Use, Especially of High-Potency Cannabis, Drives the Earlier Onset of Psychosis in Cannabis Users

PubMed Central

Di Forti, Marta; Sallis, Hannah; Allegri, Fabio; Trotta, Antonella; Ferraro, Laura; Stilo, Simona A.; Marconi, Arianna; La Cascia, Caterina; Reis Marques, Tiago; Pariante, Carmine; Dazzan, Paola; Mondelli, Valeria; Paparelli, Alessandra; Kolliakou, Anna; Prata, Diana; Gaughran, Fiona; David, Anthony S.; Morgan, Craig; Stahl, Daniel; Khondoker, Mizanur; MacCabe, James H.; Murray, Robin M.

2014-01-01

Cannabis use is associated with an earlier age of onset of psychosis (AOP). However, the reasons for this remain debated. Methods: We applied a Cox proportional hazards model to 410 first-episode psychosis patients to investigate the association between gender, patterns of cannabis use, and AOP. Results: Patients with a history of cannabis use presented with their first episode of psychosis at a younger age (mean years = 28.2, SD = 8.0; median years = 27.1) than those who never used cannabis (mean years = 31.4, SD = 9.9; median years = 30.0; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.16–1.74; P < .001). This association remained significant after controlling for gender (HR = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.11–1.68; P < .001). Those who had started cannabis at age 15 or younger had an earlier onset of psychosis (mean years = 27.0, SD = 6.2; median years = 26.9) than those who had started after 15 years (mean years = 29.1, SD = 8.5; median years = 27.8; HR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.06–1.84; P = .050). Importantly, subjects who had been using high-potency cannabis (skunk-type) every day had the earliest onset (mean years = 25.2, SD = 6.3; median years = 24.6) compared to never users among all the groups tested (HR = 1.99; 95% CI: 1.50- 2.65; P < .0001); these daily users of high-potency cannabis had an onset an average of 6 years earlier than that of non-cannabis users. Conclusions: Daily use, especially of high-potency cannabis, drives the earlier onset of psychosis in cannabis users. PMID:24345517

Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

PubMed

Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

2018-06-01

Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Image-based change estimation for land cover and land use monitoring

Treesearch

Jeremy Webb; C. Kenneth Brewer; Nicholas Daniels; Chris Maderia; Randy Hamilton; Mark Finco; Kevin A. Megown; Andrew J. Lister

2012-01-01

The Image-based Change Estimation (ICE) project resulted from the need to provide estimates and information for land cover and land use change over large areas. The procedure uses Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot locations interpreted using two different dates of imagery from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP). In order to determine a suitable...

Adjustable Parameter-Based Distributed Fault Estimation Observer Design for Multiagent Systems With Directed Graphs.

PubMed

Zhang, Ke; Jiang, Bin; Shi, Peng

2017-02-01

In this paper, a novel adjustable parameter (AP)-based distributed fault estimation observer (DFEO) is proposed for multiagent systems (MASs) with the directed communication topology. First, a relative output estimation error is defined based on the communication topology of MASs. Then a DFEO with AP is constructed with the purpose of improving the accuracy of fault estimation. Based on H ∞ and H 2 with pole placement, multiconstrained design is given to calculate the gain of DFEO. Finally, simulation results are presented to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed DFEO design with AP.

How we estimate GFR--a pitfall of using a serum creatinine-based formula.

PubMed

Refaie, R; Moochhala, S H; Kanagasundaram, N S

2007-10-01

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is defined using the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). This has led to a large increase in the diagnosis of CKD in the United Kingdom, the majority of which is in its earlier stages and is detected in non-hospital settings. It is important to be aware that eGFR calculations will reflect inaccuracies in the measured serum creatinine, as the latter is an important component of the calculation. We report a case in which a patient with high muscle-mass who had consumed large quantities of a creatine-containing nutritional supplement presented with apparently reduced renal function on the basis of the serum creatinine and therefore also the eGFR calculation (MDRD equation). Creatine is an amino acid which is a precursor of creatinine, and is known to transiently increase serum creatinine. 6 weeks after discontinuing creatine ingestion, serum creatinine had fallen but still gave rise to an apparently abnormal calculated eGFR. In fact, renal function was shown to be normal when estimated using 24-hour urinary creatinine clearance. This case demonstrates that the upper extreme of muscle mass and ingestion of creatine can affect not only serum creatinine but also the calculated eGFR. Knowledge of common confounding factors and their effects on serum creatinine and eGFR will allow appreciation of the limitations of these measures of renal function, and can prevent unnecessary over-investigation of such patients.

Estimation of power lithium-ion battery SOC based on fuzzy optimal decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Dongmei; Hou, Enguang; Qiao, Xin; Liu, Guangmin

2018-06-01

In order to improve vehicle performance and safety, need to accurately estimate the power lithium battery state of charge (SOC), analyzing the common SOC estimation methods, according to the characteristics open circuit voltage and Kalman filter algorithm, using T - S fuzzy model, established a lithium battery SOC estimation method based on the fuzzy optimal decision. Simulation results show that the battery model accuracy can be improved.

Entropy-Based TOA Estimation and SVM-Based Ranging Error Mitigation in UWB Ranging Systems

PubMed Central

Yin, Zhendong; Cui, Kai; Wu, Zhilu; Yin, Liang

2015-01-01

The major challenges for Ultra-wide Band (UWB) indoor ranging systems are the dense multipath and non-line-of-sight (NLOS) problems of the indoor environment. To precisely estimate the time of arrival (TOA) of the first path (FP) in such a poor environment, a novel approach of entropy-based TOA estimation and support vector machine (SVM) regression-based ranging error mitigation is proposed in this paper. The proposed method can estimate the TOA precisely by measuring the randomness of the received signals and mitigate the ranging error without the recognition of the channel conditions. The entropy is used to measure the randomness of the received signals and the FP can be determined by the decision of the sample which is followed by a great entropy decrease. The SVM regression is employed to perform the ranging-error mitigation by the modeling of the regressor between the characteristics of received signals and the ranging error. The presented numerical simulation results show that the proposed approach achieves significant performance improvements in the CM1 to CM4 channels of the IEEE 802.15.4a standard, as compared to conventional approaches. PMID:26007726

Improved Goldstein Interferogram Filter Based on Local Fringe Frequency Estimation.

PubMed

Feng, Qingqing; Xu, Huaping; Wu, Zhefeng; You, Yanan; Liu, Wei; Ge, Shiqi

2016-11-23

The quality of an interferogram, which is limited by various phase noise, will greatly affect the further processes of InSAR, such as phase unwrapping. Interferometric SAR (InSAR) geophysical measurements', such as height or displacement, phase filtering is therefore an essential step. In this work, an improved Goldstein interferogram filter is proposed to suppress the phase noise while preserving the fringe edges. First, the proposed adaptive filter step, performed before frequency estimation, is employed to improve the estimation accuracy. Subsequently, to preserve the fringe characteristics, the estimated fringe frequency in each fixed filtering patch is removed from the original noisy phase. Then, the residual phase is smoothed based on the modified Goldstein filter with its parameter alpha dependent on both the coherence map and the residual phase frequency. Finally, the filtered residual phase and the removed fringe frequency are combined to generate the filtered interferogram, with the loss of signal minimized while reducing the noise level. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by experimental results based on both simulated and real data.

Improved Goldstein Interferogram Filter Based on Local Fringe Frequency Estimation

PubMed Central

Feng, Qingqing; Xu, Huaping; Wu, Zhefeng; You, Yanan; Liu, Wei; Ge, Shiqi

2016-01-01

The quality of an interferogram, which is limited by various phase noise, will greatly affect the further processes of InSAR, such as phase unwrapping. Interferometric SAR (InSAR) geophysical measurements’, such as height or displacement, phase filtering is therefore an essential step. In this work, an improved Goldstein interferogram filter is proposed to suppress the phase noise while preserving the fringe edges. First, the proposed adaptive filter step, performed before frequency estimation, is employed to improve the estimation accuracy. Subsequently, to preserve the fringe characteristics, the estimated fringe frequency in each fixed filtering patch is removed from the original noisy phase. Then, the residual phase is smoothed based on the modified Goldstein filter with its parameter alpha dependent on both the coherence map and the residual phase frequency. Finally, the filtered residual phase and the removed fringe frequency are combined to generate the filtered interferogram, with the loss of signal minimized while reducing the noise level. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by experimental results based on both simulated and real data. PMID:27886081

On estimation of time-dependent attributable fraction from population-based case-control studies.

PubMed

Zhao, Wei; Chen, Ying Qing; Hsu, Li

2017-09-01

Population attributable fraction (PAF) is widely used to quantify the disease burden associated with a modifiable exposure in a population. It has been extended to a time-varying measure that provides additional information on when and how the exposure's impact varies over time for cohort studies. However, there is no estimation procedure for PAF using data that are collected from population-based case-control studies, which, because of time and cost efficiency, are commonly used for studying genetic and environmental risk factors of disease incidences. In this article, we show that time-varying PAF is identifiable from a case-control study and develop a novel estimator of PAF. Our estimator combines odds ratio estimates from logistic regression models and density estimates of the risk factor distribution conditional on failure times in cases from a kernel smoother. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with asymptotic variance that can be estimated empirically from the data. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed estimator performs well in finite sample sizes. Finally, the method is illustrated by a population-based case-control study of colorectal cancer. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Estimating lifetime and age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer.

PubMed

Wun, L M; Merrill, R M; Feuer, E J

1998-01-01

Lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer provide a useful summary to the public of the current cancer risk and how this risk compares with earlier periods and among select subgroups of society. These reported estimates, commonly quoted in the popular press, have the potential to promote early detection efforts, to increase cancer awareness, and to serve as an aid in study planning. However, they can also be easily misunderstood and frightening to the general public. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute and the American Cancer Society have recently begun including in annual reports lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. These risk estimates are based on incidence rates that reflect new cases of the cancer in a population free of the cancer. To compute these estimates involves a cancer prevalence adjustment that is computed cross-sectionally from current incidence and mortality data derived within a multiple decrement life table. This paper presents a detailed description of the methodology for deriving lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. In addition, an extension is made which, using a triple decrement life table, adjusts for a surgical procedure that removes individuals from the risk of developing a given cancer. Two important results which provide insights into the basic methodology are included in the discussion. First, the lifetime risk estimate does not depend on the cancer prevalence adjustment, although this is not the case for age-conditional risk estimates. Second, the lifetime risk estimate is always smaller when it is corrected for a surgical procedure that takes people out of the risk pool to develop the cancer. The methodology is applied to corpus and uterus NOS cancers, with a correction made for hysterectomy prevalence. The interpretation and limitations of risk estimates are also discussed.

Estimates of ground-water recharge based on streamflow-hydrograph methods: Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risser, Dennis W.; Conger, Randall W.; Ulrich, James E.; Asmussen, Michael P.

2005-01-01

This study, completed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Bureau of Topographic and Geologic Survey (T&GS), provides estimates of ground-water recharge for watersheds throughout Pennsylvania computed by use of two automated streamflow-hydrograph-analysis methods--PART and RORA. The PART computer program uses a hydrograph-separation technique to divide the streamflow hydrograph into components of direct runoff and base flow. Base flow can be a useful approximation of recharge if losses and interbasin transfers of ground water are minimal. The RORA computer program uses a recession-curve displacement technique to estimate ground-water recharge from each storm period indicated on the streamflow hydrograph. Recharge estimates were made using streamflow records collected during 1885-2001 from 197 active and inactive streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania where streamflow is relatively unaffected by regulation. Estimates of mean-annual recharge in Pennsylvania computed by the use of PART ranged from 5.8 to 26.6 inches; estimates from RORA ranged from 7.7 to 29.3 inches. Estimates from the RORA program were about 2 inches greater than those derived from the PART program. Mean-monthly recharge was computed from the RORA program and was reported as a percentage of mean-annual recharge. On the basis of this analysis, the major ground-water recharge period in Pennsylvania typically is November through May; the greatest monthly recharge typically occurs in March.

Stationary variational estimates for the effective response and field fluctuations in nonlinear composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponte Castañeda, Pedro

2016-11-01

This paper presents a variational method for estimating the effective constitutive response of composite materials with nonlinear constitutive behavior. The method is based on a stationary variational principle for the macroscopic potential in terms of the corresponding potential of a linear comparison composite (LCC) whose properties are the trial fields in the variational principle. When used in combination with estimates for the LCC that are exact to second order in the heterogeneity contrast, the resulting estimates for the nonlinear composite are also guaranteed to be exact to second-order in the contrast. In addition, the new method allows full optimization with respect to the properties of the LCC, leading to estimates that are fully stationary and exhibit no duality gaps. As a result, the effective response and field statistics of the nonlinear composite can be estimated directly from the appropriately optimized linear comparison composite. By way of illustration, the method is applied to a porous, isotropic, power-law material, and the results are found to compare favorably with earlier bounds and estimates. However, the basic ideas of the method are expected to work for broad classes of composites materials, whose effective response can be given appropriate variational representations, including more general elasto-plastic and soft hyperelastic composites and polycrystals.

A comparison of sap flux-based evapotranspiration estimates with catchment-scale water balance

Treesearch

Chelcy R. Ford; Robert M. Hubbard; Brian D. Kloeppel; James M. Vose

2007-01-01

Many researchers are using sap flux to estimate tree-level transpiration, and to scale to stand- and catchment-level transpiration; yet studies evaluating the comparability of sap flux-based estimates of transpiration (E) with alternative methods for estimating Et at this spatial scale are rare. Our ability to...

Sampling effort and estimates of species richness based on prepositioned area electrofisher samples

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowen, Z.H.; Freeman, Mary C.

1998-01-01

Estimates of species richness based on electrofishing data are commonly used to describe the structure of fish communities. One electrofishing method for sampling riverine fishes that has become popular in the last decade is the prepositioned area electrofisher (PAE). We investigated the relationship between sampling effort and fish species richness at seven sites in the Tallapoosa River system, USA based on 1,400 PAE samples collected during 1994 and 1995. First, we estimated species richness at each site using the first-order jackknife and compared observed values for species richness and jackknife estimates of species richness to estimates based on historical collection data. Second, we used a permutation procedure and nonlinear regression to examine rates of species accumulation. Third, we used regression to predict the number of PAE samples required to collect the jackknife estimate of species richness at each site during 1994 and 1995. We found that jackknife estimates of species richness generally were less than or equal to estimates based on historical collection data. The relationship between PAE electrofishing effort and species richness in the Tallapoosa River was described by a positive asymptotic curve as found in other studies using different electrofishing gears in wadable streams. Results from nonlinear regression analyses indicted that rates of species accumulation were variable among sites and between years. Across sites and years, predictions of sampling effort required to collect jackknife estimates of species richness suggested that doubling sampling effort (to 200 PAEs) would typically increase observed species richness by not more than six species. However, sampling effort beyond about 60 PAE samples typically increased observed species richness by < 10%. We recommend using historical collection data in conjunction with a preliminary sample size of at least 70 PAE samples to evaluate estimates of species richness in medium-sized rivers

River runoff estimates based on remotely sensed surface velocities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grünler, Steffen; Stammer, Detlef; Romeiser, Roland

2010-05-01

One promising technique for river runoff estimates from space is the retrieval of surface currents on the basis of synthetic aperture radar along-track interferometry (ATI). The German satellite TerraSAR-X, which was launched in June 2007, will permit ATI measurements in an experimental mode. Based on numerical simulations, we present findings of a research project in which the potential of satellite measurements of various parameters with different temporal and spatial sampling characteristics is evaluated. A sampling strategy for river runoff estimates is developed. We address the achievable accuracy and limitations of such estimates for different local flow conditions at selected test site. High-resolution three-dimensional current fields in the Elbe river (Germany) from a numerical model are used as reference data set and input for simulations of a variety of possible measuring and data interpretation strategies to be evaluated. Addressing the problem of aliasing we removed tidal signals from the sampling data. Discharge estimates on the basis of measured surface current fields and river widths from TerraSAR-X are successfully simulated. The differences of the resulted net discharge estimate are between 30-55% for a required continuously observation period of one year. We discuss the applicability of the measuring strategies to a number of major rivers. Further we show results of runoff estimates by the retrieval of surface current fields by real TerraSAR-X ATI data (AS mode) for the Elbe river study area.

Restoration of out-of-focus images based on circle of confusion estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivirito, Paolo; Battiato, Sebastiano; Curti, Salvatore; La Cascia, M.; Pirrone, Roberto

2002-11-01

In this paper a new method for a fast out-of-focus blur estimation and restoration is proposed. It is suitable for CFA (Color Filter Array) images acquired by typical CCD/CMOS sensor. The method is based on the analysis of a single image and consists of two steps: 1) out-of-focus blur estimation via Bayer pattern analysis; 2) image restoration. Blur estimation is based on a block-wise edge detection technique. This edge detection is carried out on the green pixels of the CFA sensor image also called Bayer pattern. Once the blur level has been estimated the image is restored through the application of a new inverse filtering technique. This algorithm gives sharp images reducing ringing and crisping artifact, involving wider region of frequency. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the method, both in subjective and numerical way, by comparison with other techniques found in literature.

An optical flow-based method for velocity field of fluid flow estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Głomb, Grzegorz; Świrniak, Grzegorz; Mroczka, Janusz

2017-06-01

The aim of this paper is to present a method for estimating flow-velocity vector fields using the Lucas-Kanade algorithm. The optical flow measurements are based on the Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) technique, which is commonly used in fluid mechanics laboratories in both research institutes and industry. Common approaches for an optical characterization of velocity fields base on computation of partial derivatives of the image intensity using finite differences. Nevertheless, the accuracy of velocity field computations is low due to the fact that an exact estimation of spatial derivatives is very difficult in presence of rapid intensity changes in the PIV images, caused by particles having small diameters. The method discussed in this paper solves this problem by interpolating the PIV images using Gaussian radial basis functions. This provides a significant improvement in the accuracy of the velocity estimation but, more importantly, allows for the evaluation of the derivatives in intermediate points between pixels. Numerical analysis proves that the method is able to estimate even a separate vector for each particle with a 5× 5 px2 window, whereas a classical correlation-based method needs at least 4 particle images. With the use of a specialized multi-step hybrid approach to data analysis the method improves the estimation of the particle displacement far above 1 px.

Virtual Estimator for Piecewise Linear Systems Based on Observability Analysis

PubMed Central

Morales-Morales, Cornelio; Adam-Medina, Manuel; Cervantes, Ilse; Vela-Valdés and, Luis G.; García Beltrán, Carlos Daniel

2013-01-01

This article proposes a virtual sensor for piecewise linear systems based on observability analysis that is in function of a commutation law related with the system's outpu. This virtual sensor is also known as a state estimator. Besides, it presents a detector of active mode when the commutation sequences of each linear subsystem are arbitrary and unknown. For the previous, this article proposes a set of virtual estimators that discern the commutation paths of the system and allow estimating their output. In this work a methodology in order to test the observability for piecewise linear systems with discrete time is proposed. An academic example is presented to show the obtained results. PMID:23447007

Estimation of Supercapacitor Energy Storage Based on Fractional Differential Equations.

PubMed

Kopka, Ryszard

2017-12-22

In this paper, new results on using only voltage measurements on supercapacitor terminals for estimation of accumulated energy are presented. For this purpose, a study based on application of fractional-order models of supercapacitor charging/discharging circuits is undertaken. Parameter estimates of the models are then used to assess the amount of the energy accumulated in supercapacitor. The obtained results are compared with energy determined experimentally by measuring voltage and current on supercapacitor terminals. All the tests are repeated for various input signal shapes and parameters. Very high consistency between estimated and experimental results fully confirm suitability of the proposed approach and thus applicability of the fractional calculus to modelling of supercapacitor energy storage.

Photometry-based estimation of the total number of stars in the Universe.

PubMed

Manojlović, Lazo M

2015-07-20

A novel photometry-based estimation of the total number of stars in the Universe is presented. The estimation method is based on the energy conservation law and actual measurements of the extragalactic background light levels. By assuming that every radiated photon is kept within the Universe volume, i.e., by approximating the Universe as an integrating cavity without losses, the total number of stars in the Universe of about 6×10²² has been obtained.

Long-term effects of earlier initiated continuous Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) for low-birth-weight (LBW) infants in Madagascar.

PubMed

Nagai, Shuko; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Rabesandratana, Norotiana; Andrianarimanana, Diavolana; Nakayama, Takeo; Mori, Rintaro

2011-12-01

To examine the long-term effects of earlier initiated continuous Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) for relatively stable low-birth-weight (LBW) infants in a resource-limited country. A randomized controlled trial with long-term follow-up was performed in LBW infants in Madagascar. Earlier continuous KMC (intervention group) was initiated as soon as possible within 24 h postbirth, and later continuous KMC (control group: conventional care) was initiated after complete stabilization. Outcome measures were mortality or readmission, nutritional indicators at 6-12 months postbirth and feeding condition at 6 months postbirth (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00531492). A total of 72 infants were followed for mortality or readmission at 6-12 months postbirth. There was no difference between the two groups (7/36 vs. 7/36, Risk ratio (RR), 1.00; 95% CIs, 0.39-2.56; p = 1.00). The proportion of exclusive breast feeding (EBF) at 6 months postbirth was significantly higher with earlier KMC than later KMC (12/29 vs. 4/26; RR 2.69; 95% CIs, 1.00-7.31; p = 0.04). There were no differences in nutritional indicators between the two groups at 6-12 months postbirth. Earlier initiated continuous KMC results in a significantly higher proportion of EBF at 6 months postbirth. Further larger-scale long-term evaluations of earlier initiated continuous KMC for LBW infants are needed. © 2011 The Author(s)/Acta Paediatrica © 2011 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

Fan-out Estimation in Spin-based Quantum Computer Scale-up.

PubMed

Nguyen, Thien; Hill, Charles D; Hollenberg, Lloyd C L; James, Matthew R

2017-10-17

Solid-state spin-based qubits offer good prospects for scaling based on their long coherence times and nexus to large-scale electronic scale-up technologies. However, high-threshold quantum error correction requires a two-dimensional qubit array operating in parallel, posing significant challenges in fabrication and control. While architectures incorporating distributed quantum control meet this challenge head-on, most designs rely on individual control and readout of all qubits with high gate densities. We analysed the fan-out routing overhead of a dedicated control line architecture, basing the analysis on a generalised solid-state spin qubit platform parameterised to encompass Coulomb confined (e.g. donor based spin qubits) or electrostatically confined (e.g. quantum dot based spin qubits) implementations. The spatial scalability under this model is estimated using standard electronic routing methods and present-day fabrication constraints. Based on reasonable assumptions for qubit control and readout we estimate 10 2 -10 5 physical qubits, depending on the quantum interconnect implementation, can be integrated and fanned-out independently. Assuming relatively long control-free interconnects the scalability can be extended. Ultimately, the universal quantum computation may necessitate a much higher number of integrated qubits, indicating that higher dimensional electronics fabrication and/or multiplexed distributed control and readout schemes may be the preferredstrategy for large-scale implementation.

Accounting for estimated IQ in neuropsychological test performance with regression-based techniques.

PubMed

Testa, S Marc; Winicki, Jessica M; Pearlson, Godfrey D; Gordon, Barry; Schretlen, David J

2009-11-01

Regression-based normative techniques account for variability in test performance associated with multiple predictor variables and generate expected scores based on algebraic equations. Using this approach, we show that estimated IQ, based on oral word reading, accounts for 1-9% of the variability beyond that explained by individual differences in age, sex, race, and years of education for most cognitive measures. These results confirm that adding estimated "premorbid" IQ to demographic predictors in multiple regression models can incrementally improve the accuracy with which regression-based norms (RBNs) benchmark expected neuropsychological test performance in healthy adults. It remains to be seen whether the incremental variance in test performance explained by estimated "premorbid" IQ translates to improved diagnostic accuracy in patient samples. We describe these methods, and illustrate the step-by-step application of RBNs with two cases. We also discuss the rationale, assumptions, and caveats of this approach. More broadly, we note that adjusting test scores for age and other characteristics might actually decrease the accuracy with which test performance predicts absolute criteria, such as the ability to drive or live independently.

Adaptive compressed sensing of multi-view videos based on the sparsity estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Senlin; Li, Xilong; Chong, Xin

2017-11-01

The conventional compressive sensing for videos based on the non-adaptive linear projections, and the measurement times is usually set empirically. As a result, the quality of videos reconstruction is always affected. Firstly, the block-based compressed sensing (BCS) with conventional selection for compressive measurements was described. Then an estimation method for the sparsity of multi-view videos was proposed based on the two dimensional discrete wavelet transform (2D DWT). With an energy threshold given beforehand, the DWT coefficients were processed with both energy normalization and sorting by descending order, and the sparsity of the multi-view video can be achieved by the proportion of dominant coefficients. And finally, the simulation result shows that, the method can estimate the sparsity of video frame effectively, and provides an active basis for the selection of compressive observation times. The result also shows that, since the selection of observation times is based on the sparsity estimated with the energy threshold provided, the proposed method can ensure the reconstruction quality of multi-view videos.

Local surface curvature analysis based on reflection estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Qinglin; Laligant, Olivier; Fauvet, Eric; Zakharova, Anastasia

2015-07-01

In this paper, we propose a novel reflection based method to estimate the local orientation of a specular surface. For a calibrated scene with a fixed light band, the band is reflected by the surface to the image plane of a camera. Then the local geometry between the surface and reflected band is estimated. Firstly, in order to find the relationship relying the object position, the object surface orientation and the band reflection, we study the fundamental theory of the geometry between a specular mirror surface and a band source. Then we extend our approach to the spherical surface with arbitrary curvature. Experiments are conducted with mirror surface and spherical surface. Results show that our method is able to obtain the local surface orientation merely by measuring the displacement and the form of the reflection.

Statistical tools for transgene copy number estimation based on real-time PCR.

PubMed

Yuan, Joshua S; Burris, Jason; Stewart, Nathan R; Mentewab, Ayalew; Stewart, C Neal

2007-11-01

As compared with traditional transgene copy number detection technologies such as Southern blot analysis, real-time PCR provides a fast, inexpensive and high-throughput alternative. However, the real-time PCR based transgene copy number estimation tends to be ambiguous and subjective stemming from the lack of proper statistical analysis and data quality control to render a reliable estimation of copy number with a prediction value. Despite the recent progresses in statistical analysis of real-time PCR, few publications have integrated these advancements in real-time PCR based transgene copy number determination. Three experimental designs and four data quality control integrated statistical models are presented. For the first method, external calibration curves are established for the transgene based on serially-diluted templates. The Ct number from a control transgenic event and putative transgenic event are compared to derive the transgene copy number or zygosity estimation. Simple linear regression and two group T-test procedures were combined to model the data from this design. For the second experimental design, standard curves were generated for both an internal reference gene and the transgene, and the copy number of transgene was compared with that of internal reference gene. Multiple regression models and ANOVA models can be employed to analyze the data and perform quality control for this approach. In the third experimental design, transgene copy number is compared with reference gene without a standard curve, but rather, is based directly on fluorescence data. Two different multiple regression models were proposed to analyze the data based on two different approaches of amplification efficiency integration. Our results highlight the importance of proper statistical treatment and quality control integration in real-time PCR-based transgene copy number determination. These statistical methods allow the real-time PCR-based transgene copy number estimation

Estimating evaporative vapor generation from automobiles based on parking activities.

PubMed

Dong, Xinyi; Tschantz, Michael; Fu, Joshua S

2015-07-01

A new approach is proposed to quantify the evaporative vapor generation based on real parking activity data. As compared to the existing methods, two improvements are applied in this new approach to reduce the uncertainties: First, evaporative vapor generation from diurnal parking events is usually calculated based on estimated average parking duration for the whole fleet, while in this study, vapor generation rate is calculated based on parking activities distribution. Second, rather than using the daily temperature gradient, this study uses hourly temperature observations to derive the hourly incremental vapor generation rates. The parking distribution and hourly incremental vapor generation rates are then adopted with Wade-Reddy's equation to estimate the weighted average evaporative generation. We find that hourly incremental rates can better describe the temporal variations of vapor generation, and the weighted vapor generation rate is 5-8% less than calculation without considering parking activity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Toward On-line Parameter Estimation of Concentric Tube Robots Using a Mechanics-based Kinematic Model

PubMed Central

Jang, Cheongjae; Ha, Junhyoung; Dupont, Pierre E.; Park, Frank Chongwoo

2017-01-01

Although existing mechanics-based models of concentric tube robots have been experimentally demonstrated to approximate the actual kinematics, determining accurate estimates of model parameters remains difficult due to the complex relationship between the parameters and available measurements. Further, because the mechanics-based models neglect some phenomena like friction, nonlinear elasticity, and cross section deformation, it is also not clear if model error is due to model simplification or to parameter estimation errors. The parameters of the superelastic materials used in these robots can be slowly time-varying, necessitating periodic re-estimation. This paper proposes a method for estimating the mechanics-based model parameters using an extended Kalman filter as a step toward on-line parameter estimation. Our methodology is validated through both simulation and experiments. PMID:28717554

Mode extraction on wind turbine blades via phase-based video motion estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarrafi, Aral; Poozesh, Peyman; Niezrecki, Christopher; Mao, Zhu

2017-04-01

In recent years, image processing techniques are being applied more often for structural dynamics identification, characterization, and structural health monitoring. Although as a non-contact and full-field measurement method, image processing still has a long way to go to outperform other conventional sensing instruments (i.e. accelerometers, strain gauges, laser vibrometers, etc.,). However, the technologies associated with image processing are developing rapidly and gaining more attention in a variety of engineering applications including structural dynamics identification and modal analysis. Among numerous motion estimation and image-processing methods, phase-based video motion estimation is considered as one of the most efficient methods regarding computation consumption and noise robustness. In this paper, phase-based video motion estimation is adopted for structural dynamics characterization on a 2.3-meter long Skystream wind turbine blade, and the modal parameters (natural frequencies, operating deflection shapes) are extracted. Phase-based video processing adopted in this paper provides reliable full-field 2-D motion information, which is beneficial for manufacturing certification and model updating at the design stage. The phase-based video motion estimation approach is demonstrated through processing data on a full-scale commercial structure (i.e. a wind turbine blade) with complex geometry and properties, and the results obtained have a good correlation with the modal parameters extracted from accelerometer measurements, especially for the first four bending modes, which have significant importance in blade characterization.

Service Lifetime Estimation of EPDM Rubber Based on Accelerated Aging Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jie; Li, Xiangbo; Xu, Likun; He, Tao

2017-04-01

Service lifetime of ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) rubber at room temperature (25 °C) was estimated based on accelerated aging tests. The study followed sealing stress loss on compressed cylinder samples by compression stress relaxation methods. The results showed that the cylinder samples of EPDM can quickly reach the physical relaxation equilibrium by using the over-compression method. The non-Arrhenius behavior occurred at the lowest aging temperature. A significant linear relationship was observed between compression set values and normalized stress decay results, and the relationship was not related to the ambient temperature of aging. It was estimated that the sealing stress loss in view of practical application would occur after around 86.8 years at 25 °C. The estimations at 25 °C based on the non-Arrhenius behavior were in agreement with compression set data from storage aging tests in natural environment.

Inertia Estimation of Spacecraft Based on Modified Law of Conservation of Angular Momentum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Dong Hoon; Choi, Dae-Gyun; Oh, Hwa-Suk

2010-12-01

In general, the information of inertia properties is required to control a spacecraft. The inertia properties are changed by some activities such as consumption of propellant, deployment of solar panel, sloshing, etc. Extensive estimation methods have been investigated to obtain the precise inertia properties. The gyro-based attitude data including noise and bias needs to be compensated for improvement of attitude control accuracy. A modified estimation method based on the law of conservation of angular momentum is suggested to avoid inconvenience like filtering process for noiseeffect compensation. The conventional method is modified and beforehand estimated moment of inertia is applied to improve estimation efficiency of product of inertia. The performance of the suggested method has been verified for the case of STSAT-3, Korea Science Technology Satellite.

Optimal Tuner Selection for Kalman Filter-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Garg, Sanjay

2010-01-01

A linear point design methodology for minimizing the error in on-line Kalman filter-based aircraft engine performance estimation applications is presented. This technique specifically addresses the underdetermined estimation problem, where there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. A systematic approach is applied to produce a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. Tuning parameter selection is performed using a multi-variable iterative search routine which seeks to minimize the theoretical mean-squared estimation error. This paper derives theoretical Kalman filter estimation error bias and variance values at steady-state operating conditions, and presents the tuner selection routine applied to minimize these values. Results from the application of the technique to an aircraft engine simulation are presented and compared to the conventional approach of tuner selection. Experimental simulation results are found to be in agreement with theoretical predictions. The new methodology is shown to yield a significant improvement in on-line engine performance estimation accuracy

Methodology of automated ionosphere front velocity estimation for ground-based augmentation of GNSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bang, Eugene; Lee, Jiyun

2013-11-01

ionospheric anomalies occurring during severe ionospheric storms can pose integrity threats to Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Ground-Based Augmentation Systems (GBAS). Ionospheric anomaly threat models for each region of operation need to be developed to analyze the potential impact of these anomalies on GBAS users and develop mitigation strategies. Along with the magnitude of ionospheric gradients, the speed of the ionosphere "fronts" in which these gradients are embedded is an important parameter for simulation-based GBAS integrity analysis. This paper presents a methodology for automated ionosphere front velocity estimation which will be used to analyze a vast amount of ionospheric data, build ionospheric anomaly threat models for different regions, and monitor ionospheric anomalies continuously going forward. This procedure automatically selects stations that show a similar trend of ionospheric delays, computes the orientation of detected fronts using a three-station-based trigonometric method, and estimates speeds for the front using a two-station-based method. It also includes fine-tuning methods to improve the estimation to be robust against faulty measurements and modeling errors. It demonstrates the performance of the algorithm by comparing the results of automated speed estimation to those manually computed previously. All speed estimates from the automated algorithm fall within error bars of ± 30% of the manually computed speeds. In addition, this algorithm is used to populate the current threat space with newly generated threat points. A larger number of velocity estimates helps us to better understand the behavior of ionospheric gradients under geomagnetic storm conditions.

An estimation of distribution method for infrared target detection based on Copulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuo; Zhang, Yiqun

2015-10-01

Track-before-detect (TBD) based target detection involves a hypothesis test of merit functions which measure each track as a possible target track. Its accuracy depends on the precision of the distribution of merit functions, which determines the threshold for a test. Generally, merit functions are regarded Gaussian, and on this basis the distribution is estimated, which is true for most methods such as the multiple hypothesis tracking (MHT). However, merit functions for some other methods such as the dynamic programming algorithm (DPA) are non-Guassian and cross-correlated. Since existing methods cannot reasonably measure the correlation, the exact distribution can hardly be estimated. If merit functions are assumed Guassian and independent, the error between an actual distribution and its approximation may occasionally over 30 percent, and is divergent by propagation. Hence, in this paper, we propose a novel estimation of distribution method based on Copulas, by which the distribution can be estimated precisely, where the error is less than 1 percent without propagation. Moreover, the estimation merely depends on the form of merit functions and the structure of a tracking algorithm, and is invariant to measurements. Thus, the distribution can be estimated in advance, greatly reducing the demand for real-time calculation of distribution functions.

Daily use, especially of high-potency cannabis, drives the earlier onset of psychosis in cannabis users.

PubMed

Di Forti, Marta; Sallis, Hannah; Allegri, Fabio; Trotta, Antonella; Ferraro, Laura; Stilo, Simona A; Marconi, Arianna; La Cascia, Caterina; Reis Marques, Tiago; Pariante, Carmine; Dazzan, Paola; Mondelli, Valeria; Paparelli, Alessandra; Kolliakou, Anna; Prata, Diana; Gaughran, Fiona; David, Anthony S; Morgan, Craig; Stahl, Daniel; Khondoker, Mizanur; MacCabe, James H; Murray, Robin M

2014-11-01

Cannabis use is associated with an earlier age of onset of psychosis (AOP). However, the reasons for this remain debated. We applied a Cox proportional hazards model to 410 first-episode psychosis patients to investigate the association between gender, patterns of cannabis use, and AOP. Patients with a history of cannabis use presented with their first episode of psychosis at a younger age (mean years = 28.2, SD = 8.0; median years = 27.1) than those who never used cannabis (mean years = 31.4, SD = 9.9; median years = 30.0; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.16-1.74; P < .001). This association remained significant after controlling for gender (HR = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.11-1.68; P < .001). Those who had started cannabis at age 15 or younger had an earlier onset of psychosis (mean years = 27.0, SD = 6.2; median years = 26.9) than those who had started after 15 years (mean years = 29.1, SD = 8.5; median years = 27.8; HR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.06-1.84; P = .050). Importantly, subjects who had been using high-potency cannabis (skunk-type) every day had the earliest onset (mean years = 25.2, SD = 6.3; median years = 24.6) compared to never users among all the groups tested (HR = 1.99; 95% CI: 1.50- 2.65; P < .0001); these daily users of high-potency cannabis had an onset an average of 6 years earlier than that of non-cannabis users. Daily use, especially of high-potency cannabis, drives the earlier onset of psychosis in cannabis users. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Estimating leaf nitrogen accumulation in maize based on canopy hyperspectrum data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Xiaohe; Wang, Lizhi; Song, Xiaoyu; Xu, Xingang

2016-10-01

Leaf nitrogen accumulation (LNA) has important influence on the formation of crop yield and grain protein. Monitoring leaf nitrogen accumulation of crop canopy quantitively and real-timely is helpful for mastering crop nutrition status, diagnosing group growth and managing fertilization precisely. The study aimed to develop a universal method to monitor LNA of maize by hyperspectrum data, which could provide mechanism support for mapping LNA of maize at county scale. The correlations between LNA and hyperspectrum reflectivity and its mathematical transformations were analyzed. Then the feature bands and its transformations were screened to develop the optimal model of estimating LNA based on multiple linear regression method. The in-situ samples were used to evaluate the accuracy of the estimating model. Results showed that the estimating model with one differential logarithmic transformation (lgP') of reflectivity could reach highest correlation coefficient (0.889) with lowest RMSE (0.646 g·m-2), which was considered as the optimal model for estimating LNA in maize. The determination coefficient (R2) of testing samples was 0.831, while the RMSE was 1.901 g·m-2. It indicated that the one differential logarithmic transformation of hyperspectrum had good response with LNA of maize. Based on this transformation, the optimal estimating model of LNA could reach good accuracy with high stability.

Gait Phase Estimation Based on Noncontact Capacitive Sensing and Adaptive Oscillators.

PubMed

Zheng, Enhao; Manca, Silvia; Yan, Tingfang; Parri, Andrea; Vitiello, Nicola; Wang, Qining

2017-10-01

This paper presents a novel strategy aiming to acquire an accurate and walking-speed-adaptive estimation of the gait phase through noncontact capacitive sensing and adaptive oscillators (AOs). The capacitive sensing system is designed with two sensing cuffs that can measure the leg muscle shape changes during walking. The system can be dressed above the clothes and free human skin from contacting to electrodes. In order to track the capacitance signals, the gait phase estimator is designed based on the AO dynamic system due to its ability of synchronizing with quasi-periodic signals. After the implementation of the whole system, we first evaluated the offline estimation performance by experiments with 12 healthy subjects walking on a treadmill with changing speeds. The strategy achieved an accurate and consistent gait phase estimation with only one channel of capacitance signal. The average root-mean-square errors in one stride were 0.19 rad (3.0% of one gait cycle) for constant walking speeds and 0.31 rad (4.9% of one gait cycle) for speed transitions even after the subjects rewore the sensing cuffs. We then validated our strategy in a real-time gait phase estimation task with three subjects walking with changing speeds. Our study indicates that the strategy based on capacitive sensing and AOs is a promising alternative for the control of exoskeleton/orthosis.

Light pollution is associated with earlier tree budburst across the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Ffrench-Constant, Richard H; Somers-Yeates, Robin; Bennie, Jonathan; Economou, Theodoros; Hodgson, David; Spalding, Adrian; McGregor, Peter K

2016-06-29

The ecological impact of night-time lighting is of concern because of its well-demonstrated effects on animal behaviour. However, the potential of light pollution to change plant phenology and its corresponding knock-on effects on associated herbivores are less clear. Here, we test if artificial lighting can advance the timing of budburst in trees. We took a UK-wide 13 year dataset of spatially referenced budburst data from four deciduous tree species and matched it with both satellite imagery of night-time lighting and average spring temperature. We find that budburst occurs up to 7.5 days earlier in brighter areas, with the relationship being more pronounced for later-budding species. Excluding large urban areas from the analysis showed an even more pronounced advance of budburst, confirming that the urban 'heat-island' effect is not the sole cause of earlier urban budburst. Similarly, the advance in budburst across all sites is too large to be explained by increases in temperature alone. This dramatic advance of budburst illustrates the need for further experimental investigation into the impact of artificial night-time lighting on plant phenology and subsequent species interactions. As light pollution is a growing global phenomenon, the findings of this study are likely to be applicable to a wide range of species interactions across the world. © 2016 The Authors.

Sensory, physical and chemical characteristics of cooked ham manufactured from rapidly chilled and earlier deboned M. semimembranosus.

PubMed

Tomović, Vladimir M; Jokanović, Marija R; Petrović, Ljiljana S; Tomović, Mila S; Tasić, Tatjana A; Ikonić, Predrag M; Sumić, Zdravko M; Sojić, Branislav V; Skaljac, Snežana B; Sošo, Milena M

2013-01-01

Effects of rapid chilling of carcasses (at -31°C in the first 3h of chilling, and then at 2-4°C) and earlier deboning (8h post-mortem), compared to rapid (till 24h post-mortem) and conventional chilling (at 2-4°C, till 24h post-mortem), on quality characteristics of pork M. semimebranosus and cooked ham were investigated. Quality measurements included pH value, colour (CIEL a b values) and total aerobic count of M. semimebranosus, as well as sensory (colour, juiciness, texture, and flavour), physical (pH value, colour - CIEL a b values and texture - Warner-Bratzler shear and penetration forces) and chemical (protein, total fat, and moisture content) characteristics of cooked ham. The cooked ham was manufactured from pieces of M. semimebranosus with ultimate lightness (CIEL value) lower than 50. Rapid chilling and earlier deboning significantly increased quantity of M. semimebranosus desirable for cooked ham manufacturing. Earlier start of pork fabrication did not affect important quality characteristics of cooked ham. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Earlier Snowmelt Changes the Ratio Between Early and Late Season Forest Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowles, J. F.; Molotch, N. P.; Trujillo, E.; Litvak, M. E.

2017-12-01

Future projections of declining snowpack and increasing potential evaporation associated with climate warming are predicted to advance the timing of snowmelt in mountain ecosystems globally. This scenario has direct implications for snowmelt-driven forest productivity, but the net effect of temporally shifting moisture dynamics is unknown with respect to the annual carbon balance. Accordingly, this study uses both satellite- and tower-based observations to document the forest productivity response to snowpack and potential evaporation variability between 1989 and 2012 throughout the southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion, USA. These results show that a combination of low snow accumulation and record high potential evaporation in 2012 resulted in the 34-year minimum ecosystem productivity that could be indicative of future conditions. Moreover, early and late season productivity were significantly and inversely related, suggesting that future shifts toward earlier or reduced snowmelt could increase late-season moisture stress to vegetation and thus restrict productivity despite a longer growing season. This relationship was further subject to modification by summer precipitation, and the controls on the early/late season productivity ratio are explored within the context of ecosystem carbon storage in the future. Any perturbation to the carbon cycle at this scale represents a potential feedback to climate change since snow-covered forests represent an important global carbon sink.

Trends of earlier palliative care consultation in advanced cancer patients receiving palliative radiation therapy.

PubMed

Chang, Sanders; Sigel, Keith; Goldstein, Nathan E; Wisnivesky, Juan; Dharmarajan, Kavita V

2018-06-06

The American Society of Clinical Oncology recommends that all patients with metastatic disease receive dedicated palliative care (PC) services early in their illness, ideally via interdisciplinary care teams. We investigated the time trends of specialty palliative care consultations from the date of metastatic cancer diagnosis among patients receiving palliative radiation therapy (PRT). A shorter time interval between metastatic diagnosis and first PC consultation suggests earlier involvement of palliative care in a patient's life with metastatic cancer. In this IRB-approved retrospective analysis, patients treated with PRT for solid tumors (bone and brain) at a single tertiary care hospital between 2010 and 2016 were included. Cohorts were arbitrarily established by metastatic diagnosis within approximately two-year intervals: (1) 1/1/2010-3/27/2012; (2) 3/28/2012-5/21/2014; and (3) 5/22/2014-12/31/2016. Cox-proportional hazards regression modelling was used to compare trends of PC consultation among cohorts. Of 284 patients identified, 184 patients received PC consultation, whereas 15 patients died before receiving a PC consult. Median follow-up time until an event or censor was 257 days (range: 1,900). Patients in the most recent cohort had a shorter median time to first PC consult (57 days) compared to those in the first (374 days) and second (186 days) cohorts. On multivariable analysis, patients in the third cohort were more likely to undergo a PC consultation earlier in their metastatic illness (HR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.2,2.8). Over a six-year period, palliative care consultation occurred earlier for metastatic patients treated with PRT at our institution. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Earlier time to aerobic exercise is associated with faster recovery following acute sport concussion.

PubMed

Lawrence, David Wyndham; Richards, Doug; Comper, Paul; Hutchison, Michael G

2018-01-01

To determine whether earlier time to initiation of aerobic exercise following acute concussion is associated with time to full return to (1) sport and (2) school or work. A retrospective stratified propensity score survival analysis of acute (≤14 days) concussion was used to determine whether time (days) to initiation of aerobic exercise post-concussion was associated with, both, time (days) to full return to (1) sport and (2) school or work. A total of 253 acute concussions [median (IQR) age, 17.0 (15.0-20.0) years; 148 (58.5%) males] were included in this study. Multivariate Cox regression models identified that earlier time to aerobic exercise was associated with faster return to sport and school/work adjusting for other covariates, including quintile propensity strata. For each successive day in delay to initiation of aerobic exercise, individuals had a less favourable recovery trajectory. Initiating aerobic exercise at 3 and 7 days following injury was associated with a respective 36.5% (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.53-0.76) and 73.2% (HR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.16-0.45) reduced probability of faster full return to sport compared to within 1 day; and a respective 45.9% (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.44-0.66) and 83.1% (HR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.10-0.30) reduced probability of faster full return to school/work. Additionally, concussion history, symptom severity, LOC deleteriously influenced concussion recovery. Earlier initiation of aerobic exercise was associated with faster full return to sport and school or work. This study provides greater insight into the benefits and safety of aerobic exercise within the first week of the injury.

Estimation of median growth curves for children up two years old based on biresponse local linear estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chamidah, Nur; Rifada, Marisa

2016-03-01

There is significant of the coeficient correlation between weight and height of the children. Therefore, the simultaneous model estimation is better than partial single response approach. In this study we investigate the pattern of sex difference in growth curve of children from birth up to two years of age in Surabaya, Indonesia based on biresponse model. The data was collected in a longitudinal representative sample of the Surabaya population of healthy children that consists of two response variables i.e. weight (kg) and height (cm). While a predictor variable is age (month). Based on generalized cross validation criterion, the modeling result based on biresponse model by using local linear estimator for boy and girl growth curve gives optimal bandwidth i.e 1.41 and 1.56 and the determination coefficient (R2) i.e. 99.99% and 99.98%,.respectively. Both boy and girl curves satisfy the goodness of fit criterion i.e..the determination coefficient tends to one. Also, there is difference pattern of growth curve between boy and girl. The boy median growth curves is higher than those of girl curve.

Enhanced Pedestrian Navigation Based on Course Angle Error Estimation Using Cascaded Kalman Filters

PubMed Central

Park, Chan Gook

2018-01-01

An enhanced pedestrian dead reckoning (PDR) based navigation algorithm, which uses two cascaded Kalman filters (TCKF) for the estimation of course angle and navigation errors, is proposed. The proposed algorithm uses a foot-mounted inertial measurement unit (IMU), waist-mounted magnetic sensors, and a zero velocity update (ZUPT) based inertial navigation technique with TCKF. The first stage filter estimates the course angle error of a human, which is closely related to the heading error of the IMU. In order to obtain the course measurements, the filter uses magnetic sensors and a position-trace based course angle. For preventing magnetic disturbance from contaminating the estimation, the magnetic sensors are attached to the waistband. Because the course angle error is mainly due to the heading error of the IMU, and the characteristic error of the heading angle is highly dependent on that of the course angle, the estimated course angle error is used as a measurement for estimating the heading error in the second stage filter. At the second stage, an inertial navigation system-extended Kalman filter-ZUPT (INS-EKF-ZUPT) method is adopted. As the heading error is estimated directly by using course-angle error measurements, the estimation accuracy for the heading and yaw gyro bias can be enhanced, compared with the ZUPT-only case, which eventually enhances the position accuracy more efficiently. The performance enhancements are verified via experiments, and the way-point position error for the proposed method is compared with those for the ZUPT-only case and with other cases that use ZUPT and various types of magnetic heading measurements. The results show that the position errors are reduced by a maximum of 90% compared with the conventional ZUPT based PDR algorithms. PMID:29690539

Ratio-based estimators for a change point in persistence.

PubMed

Halunga, Andreea G; Osborn, Denise R

2012-11-01

We study estimation of the date of change in persistence, from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] or vice versa. Contrary to statements in the original papers, our analytical results establish that the ratio-based break point estimators of Kim [Kim, J.Y., 2000. Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series. Journal of Econometrics 95, 97-116], Kim et al. [Kim, J.Y., Belaire-Franch, J., Badillo Amador, R., 2002. Corringendum to "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series". Journal of Econometrics 109, 389-392] and Busetti and Taylor [Busetti, F., Taylor, A.M.R., 2004. Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence. Journal of Econometrics 123, 33-66] are inconsistent when a mean (or other deterministic component) is estimated for the process. In such cases, the estimators converge to random variables with upper bound given by the true break date when persistence changes from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text]. A Monte Carlo study confirms the large sample downward bias and also finds substantial biases in moderate sized samples, partly due to properties at the end points of the search interval.

Spatial and Temporal Variation in Primary Productivity (NDVI) of Coastal Alaskan Tundra: Decreased Vegetation Growth Following Earlier Snowmelt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gamon, John A.; Huemmrich, K. Fred; Stone, Robert S.; Tweedie, Craig E.

2015-01-01

In the Arctic, earlier snowmelt and longer growing seasons due to warming have been hypothesized to increase vegetation productivity. Using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from both field and satellite measurements as an indicator of vegetation phenology and productivity, we monitored spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation growth for a coastal wet sedge tundra site near Barrow, Alaska over three growing seasons (2000-2002). Contrary to expectation, earlier snowmelt did not lead to increased productivity. Instead, productivity was associated primarily with precipitation and soil moisture, and secondarily with growing degree days, which, during this period, led to reduced growth in years with earlier snowmelt. Additional moisture effects on productivity and species distribution, operating over a longer time scale, were evident in spatial NDVI patterns associated with microtopography. Lower, wetter regions dominated by graminoids were more productive than higher, drier locations having a higher percentage of lichens and mosses, despite the earlier snowmelt at the more elevated sites. These results call into question the oft-stated hypothesis that earlier arctic growing seasons will lead to greater vegetation productivity. Rather, they agree with an emerging body of evidence from recent field studies indicating that early-season, local environmental conditions, notably moisture and temperature, are primary factors determining arctic vegetation productivity. For this coastal arctic site, early growing season conditions are strongly influenced by microtopography, hydrology, and regional sea ice dynamics, and may not be easily predicted from snowmelt date or seasonal average air temperatures alone. Our comparison of field to satellite NDVI also highlights the value of in-situ monitoring of actual vegetation responses using field optical sampling to obtain detailed information on surface conditions not possible from satellite observations alone.

Genetic Algorithm-Based Motion Estimation Method using Orientations and EMGs for Robot Controls

PubMed Central

Chae, Jeongsook; Jin, Yong; Sung, Yunsick

2018-01-01

Demand for interactive wearable devices is rapidly increasing with the development of smart devices. To accurately utilize wearable devices for remote robot controls, limited data should be analyzed and utilized efficiently. For example, the motions by a wearable device, called Myo device, can be estimated by measuring its orientation, and calculating a Bayesian probability based on these orientation data. Given that Myo device can measure various types of data, the accuracy of its motion estimation can be increased by utilizing these additional types of data. This paper proposes a motion estimation method based on weighted Bayesian probability and concurrently measured data, orientations and electromyograms (EMG). The most probable motion among estimated is treated as a final estimated motion. Thus, recognition accuracy can be improved when compared to the traditional methods that employ only a single type of data. In our experiments, seven subjects perform five predefined motions. When orientation is measured by the traditional methods, the sum of the motion estimation errors is 37.3%; likewise, when only EMG data are used, the error in motion estimation by the proposed method was also 37.3%. The proposed combined method has an error of 25%. Therefore, the proposed method reduces motion estimation errors by 12%. PMID:29324641

Natural Forest Biomass Estimation Based on Plantation Information Using PALSAR Data

PubMed Central

Avtar, Ram; Suzuki, Rikie; Sawada, Haruo

2014-01-01

Forests play a vital role in terrestrial carbon cycling; therefore, monitoring forest biomass at local to global scales has become a challenging issue in the context of climate change. In this study, we investigated the backscattering properties of Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) data in cashew and rubber plantation areas of Cambodia. The PALSAR backscattering coefficient (σ0) had different responses in the two plantation types because of differences in biophysical parameters. The PALSAR σ0 showed a higher correlation with field-based measurements and lower saturation in cashew plants compared with rubber plants. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models based on field-based biomass of cashew (C-MLR) and rubber (R-MLR) plants with PALSAR σ0 were created. These MLR models were used to estimate natural forest biomass in Cambodia. The cashew plant-based MLR model (C-MLR) produced better results than the rubber plant-based MLR model (R-MLR). The C-MLR-estimated natural forest biomass was validated using forest inventory data for natural forests in Cambodia. The validation results showed a strong correlation (R2 = 0.64) between C-MLR-estimated natural forest biomass and field-based biomass, with RMSE  = 23.2 Mg/ha in deciduous forests. In high-biomass regions, such as dense evergreen forests, this model had a weaker correlation because of the high biomass and the multiple-story tree structure of evergreen forests, which caused saturation of the PALSAR signal. PMID:24465908

Emg Amplitude Estimators Based on Probability Distribution for Muscle-Computer Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phinyomark, Angkoon; Quaine, Franck; Laurillau, Yann; Thongpanja, Sirinee; Limsakul, Chusak; Phukpattaranont, Pornchai

To develop an advanced muscle-computer interface (MCI) based on surface electromyography (EMG) signal, the amplitude estimations of muscle activities, i.e., root mean square (RMS) and mean absolute value (MAV) are widely used as a convenient and accurate input for a recognition system. Their classification performance is comparable to advanced and high computational time-scale methods, i.e., the wavelet transform. However, the signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) performance of RMS and MAV depends on a probability density function (PDF) of EMG signals, i.e., Gaussian or Laplacian. The PDF of upper-limb motions associated with EMG signals is still not clear, especially for dynamic muscle contraction. In this paper, the EMG PDF is investigated based on surface EMG recorded during finger, hand, wrist and forearm motions. The results show that on average the experimental EMG PDF is closer to a Laplacian density, particularly for male subject and flexor muscle. For the amplitude estimation, MAV has a higher SNR, defined as the mean feature divided by its fluctuation, than RMS. Due to a same discrimination of RMS and MAV in feature space, MAV is recommended to be used as a suitable EMG amplitude estimator for EMG-based MCIs.

Uav-Based Automatic Tree Growth Measurement for Biomass Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpina, M.; Jarząbek-Rychard, M.; Tymków, P.; Borkowski, A.

2016-06-01

Manual in-situ measurements of geometric tree parameters for the biomass volume estimation are time-consuming and economically non-effective. Photogrammetric techniques can be deployed in order to automate the measurement procedure. The purpose of the presented work is an automatic tree growth estimation based on Unmanned Aircraft Vehicle (UAV) imagery. The experiment was conducted in an agriculture test field with scots pine canopies. The data was collected using a Leica Aibotix X6V2 platform equipped with a Nikon D800 camera. Reference geometric parameters of selected sample plants were measured manually each week. In situ measurements were correlated with the UAV data acquisition. The correlation aimed at the investigation of optimal conditions for a flight and parameter settings for image acquisition. The collected images are processed in a state of the art tool resulting in a generation of dense 3D point clouds. The algorithm is developed in order to estimate geometric tree parameters from 3D points. Stem positions and tree tops are identified automatically in a cross section, followed by the calculation of tree heights. The automatically derived height values are compared to the reference measurements performed manually. The comparison allows for the evaluation of automatic growth estimation process. The accuracy achieved using UAV photogrammetry for tree heights estimation is about 5cm.

Estimating liver cancer deaths in Thailand based on verbal autopsy study.

PubMed

Waeto, Salwa; Pipatjaturon, Nattakit; Tongkumchum, Phattrawan; Choonpradub, Chamnein; Saelim, Rattikan; Makaje, Nifatamah

2014-01-01

Liver cancer mortality is high in Thailand but utility of related vital statistics is limited due to national vital registration (VR) data being under reported for specific causes of deaths. Accurate methodologies and reliable supplementary data are needed to provide worthy national vital statistics. This study aimed to model liver cancer deaths based on verbal autopsy (VA) study in 2005 to provide more accurate estimates of liver cancer deaths than those reported. The results were used to estimate number of liver cancer deaths during 2000-2009. A verbal autopsy (VA) was carried out in 2005 based on a sample of 9,644 deaths from nine provinces and it provided reliable information on causes of deaths by gender, age group, location of deaths in or outside hospital, and causes of deaths of the VR database. Logistic regression was used to model liver cancer deaths and other variables. The estimated probabilities from the model were applied to liver cancer deaths in the VR database, 2000-2009. Thus, the more accurately VA-estimated numbers of liver cancer deaths were obtained. The model fits the data quite well with sensitivity 0.64. The confidence intervals from statistical model provide the estimates and their precisions. The VA-estimated numbers of liver cancer deaths were higher than the corresponding VR database with inflation factors 1.56 for males and 1.64 for females. The statistical methods used in this study can be applied to available mortality data in developing countries where their national vital registration data are of low quality and supplementary reliable data are available.

Estimating HIV Prevalence in Zimbabwe Using Population-Based Survey Data

PubMed Central

Chinomona, Amos; Mwambi, Henry Godwell

2015-01-01

Estimates of HIV prevalence computed using data obtained from sampling a subgroup of the national population may lack the representativeness of all the relevant domains of the population. These estimates are often computed on the assumption that HIV prevalence is uniform across all domains of the population. Use of appropriate statistical methods together with population-based survey data can enhance better estimation of national and subgroup level HIV prevalence and can provide improved explanations of the variation in HIV prevalence across different domains of the population. In this study we computed design-consistent estimates of HIV prevalence, and their respective 95% confidence intervals at both the national and subgroup levels. In addition, we provided a multivariable survey logistic regression model from a generalized linear modelling perspective for explaining the variation in HIV prevalence using demographic, socio-economic, socio-cultural and behavioural factors. Essentially, this study borrows from the proximate determinants conceptual framework which provides guiding principles upon which socio-economic and socio-cultural variables affect HIV prevalence through biological behavioural factors. We utilize the 2010–11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (2010–11 ZDHS) data (which are population based) to estimate HIV prevalence in different categories of the population and for constructing the logistic regression model. It was established that HIV prevalence varies greatly with age, gender, marital status, place of residence, literacy level, belief on whether condom use can reduce the risk of contracting HIV and level of recent sexual activity whereas there was no marked variation in HIV prevalence with social status (measured using a wealth index), method of contraceptive and an individual’s level of education. PMID:26624280

Estimating cetacean carrying capacity based on spacing behaviour.

PubMed

Braithwaite, Janelle E; Meeuwig, Jessica J; Jenner, K Curt S

2012-01-01

Conservation of large ocean wildlife requires an understanding of how they use space. In Western Australia, the humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) population is growing at a minimum rate of 10% per year. An important consideration for conservation based management in space-limited environments, such as coastal resting areas, is the potential expansion in area use by humpback whales if the carrying capacity of existing areas is exceeded. Here we determined the theoretical carrying capacity of a known humpback resting area based on the spacing behaviour of pods, where a resting area is defined as a sheltered embayment along the coast. Two separate approaches were taken to estimate this distance. The first used the median nearest neighbour distance between pods in relatively dense areas, giving a spacing distance of 2.16 km (± 0.94). The second estimated the spacing distance as the radius at which 50% of the population included no other pods, and was calculated as 1.93 km (range: 1.62-2.50 km). Using these values, the maximum number of pods able to fit into the resting area was 698 and 872 pods, respectively. Given an average observed pod size of 1.7 whales, this equates to a carrying capacity estimate of between 1187 and 1482 whales at any given point in time. This study demonstrates that whale pods do maintain a distance from each other, which may determine the number of animals that can occupy aggregation areas where space is limited. This requirement for space has implications when considering boundaries for protected areas or competition for space with the fishing and resources sectors.

The validity and reproducibility of food-frequency questionnaire-based total antioxidant capacity estimates in Swedish women.

PubMed

Rautiainen, Susanne; Serafini, Mauro; Morgenstern, Ralf; Prior, Ronald L; Wolk, Alicja

2008-05-01

Total antioxidant capacity (TAC) provides an assessment of antioxidant activity and synergistic interactions of redox molecules in foods and plasma. We investigated the validity and reproducibility of food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ)-based TAC estimates assessed by oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC), total radical-trapping antioxidant parameters (TRAP), and ferric-reducing antioxidant power (FRAP) food values. Validity and reproducibility were evaluated in 2 random samples from the Swedish Mammography Cohort. Validity was studied by comparing FFQ-based TAC estimates with one measurement of plasma TAC in 108 women (54-73-y-old dietary supplement nonusers). Reproducibility was studied in 300 women (56-75 y old, 50.7% dietary supplement nonusers) who completed 2 FFQs 1 y apart. Fruit and vegetables (mainly apples, pears, oranges, and berries) were the major contributors to FFQ-based ORAC (56.5%), TRAP (41.7%), and FRAP (38.0%) estimates. In the validity study, whole plasma ORAC was correlated (Pearson) with FFQ-based ORAC (r = 0.35), TRAP (r = 0.31), and FRAP (r = 0.28) estimates from fruit and vegetables. Correlations between lipophilic plasma ORAC and FFQ-based ORAC, TRAP, and FRAP estimates from fruit and vegetables were 0.41, 0.31, and 0.28, and correlations with plasma TRAP estimates were 0.31, 0.30, and 0.28, respectively. Hydrophilic plasma ORAC and plasma FRAP values did not correlate with FFQ-based TAC estimates. Reproducibility, assessed by intraclass correlations, was 0.60, 0.61, and 0.61 for FFQ-based ORAC, TRAP, and FRAP estimates, respectively, from fruit and vegetables. FFQ-based TAC values represent valid and reproducible estimates that may be used in nutritional epidemiology to assess antioxidant intake from foods. Further studies in other populations to confirm these results are needed.

Recent gestational diabetes was associated with mothers stopping predominant breastfeeding earlier in a multi-ethnic population.

PubMed

Baerug, Anne; Sletner, Line; Laake, Petter; Fretheim, Atle; Løland, Beate Fossum; Waage, Christin W; Birkeland, Kåre I; Jenum, Anne Karen

2018-06-01

It has previously been shown that breastfeeding may reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes in mothers with recent gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). This study compared the cessation of predominant breastfeeding in mothers with and without recent GDM in a multi-ethnic population. From May 2008 to May 2010, healthy pregnant women attending antenatal care provided by community health services in Eastern Oslo, Norway were recruited. We included 616 women-58% non-Western-and interviewed and examined them at a mean of 15 and 28 weeks of gestation and 14 weeks' postpartum. Cox regression models examined the association between GDM, as assessed by the 2013 World Health Organization criteria, and breastfeeding cessation. Overall, 190 of the 616 (31%) mothers had GDM and they ended predominant breastfeeding earlier than mothers without GDM, with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 1.33 and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of 1.01-1.77. Mothers of South Asian origin ended predominant breastfeeding earlier than Western European mothers in the adjusted analysis (aHR 1.53, 95% CI: 1.04-2.25), but Middle Eastern mothers did not. Recent gestational diabetes was associated with earlier cessation of predominant breastfeeding in Western European and non-Western women. ©2018 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tidal Wave II Revisited: A Review of Earlier Enrollment Projections for California Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayward, Gerald C.; Breneman, David W.; Estrada, Leobardo F.

This report examined enrollment projections for higher education institutions in California in relation to earlier projections conducted in the mid-1990s that forecasted steep declines in enrollment. It notes that California's remarkable economic recovery over the last several years has allowed it to fund higher education enrollment growth at a…

The ARM Best Estimate Station-based Surface (ARMBESTNS) Data set

DOE Data Explorer

Qi,Tang; Xie,Shaocheng

2015-08-06

The ARM Best Estimate Station-based Surface (ARMBESTNS) data set merges together key surface measurements from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) sites. It is a twin data product of the ARM Best Estimate 2-dimensional Gridded Surface (ARMBE2DGRID) data set. Unlike the 2DGRID data set, the STNS data are reported at the original site locations and show the original information, except for the interpolation over time. Therefore, users have the flexibility to process the data with the approach more suitable for their applications.

Variations in a university subject pool as a function of earlier or later participation and self-report: a replication and extension.

PubMed

Bernard, Larry C; Walsh, R Patricia

2002-10-01

The present study replicated and extended earlier research on temporal sampling effects in university subject pools. Data were obtained from 236 participants, 79 men and 157 women, in a university subject pool during a 15-wk. semester. Without knowing the purpose of the study, participants self-selected to participate earlier (Weeks 4 and 5; n = 105) or later (Weeks 14 and 15; n = 131). Three hypotheses were investigated: (1) that the personality patterns of earlier and later participants on the NEO Personality Inventory-Revised and the Personality Research Form differ significantly, with earlier participants scoring higher on the latter scales reflecting social responsibility and higher on former Conscientiousness and Neuroticism scales; (2) that there are similar significant differences between participants in the earlier and later groups compared to the male and female college normative samples for the two tests: and (3) that earlier participants will have higher actual Scholastic Assessment Test scores and Grade Point Averages. Also investigated was whether participants' foreknowledge that their actual Scholastic Assessment Test scores and Grade Point Averages would be obtained would affect their accuracy of self-report. In contrast to prior research, neither the first nor second hypothesis was supported by the current study; there do not appear to be consistent differences on personality variables. However, the third hypothesis was supported. Earlier participants had higher actual high school Grade Point Average, college Grade Point Average, and Scholastic Assessment Test Verbal scores. Foreknowledge that actual Scholastic Assessment Test scores and Grade Point Averages would be obtained did not affect the accuracy of self-report. In addition, later participants significantly over-reported their scores, and significantly more women than men and more first-year than senior-year subjects participated in the early group.

Linear Parameter Varying Control Synthesis for Actuator Failure, Based on Estimated Parameter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shin, Jong-Yeob; Wu, N. Eva; Belcastro, Christine

2002-01-01

The design of a linear parameter varying (LPV) controller for an aircraft at actuator failure cases is presented. The controller synthesis for actuator failure cases is formulated into linear matrix inequality (LMI) optimizations based on an estimated failure parameter with pre-defined estimation error bounds. The inherent conservatism of an LPV control synthesis methodology is reduced using a scaling factor on the uncertainty block which represents estimated parameter uncertainties. The fault parameter is estimated using the two-stage Kalman filter. The simulation results of the designed LPV controller for a HiMXT (Highly Maneuverable Aircraft Technology) vehicle with the on-line estimator show that the desired performance and robustness objectives are achieved for actuator failure cases.

Image-based aircraft pose estimation: a comparison of simulations and real-world data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breuers, Marcel G. J.; de Reus, Nico

2001-10-01

The problem of estimating aircraft pose information from mono-ocular image data is considered using a Fourier descriptor based algorithm. The dependence of pose estimation accuracy on image resolution and aspect angle is investigated through simulations using sets of synthetic aircraft images. Further evaluation shows that god pose estimation accuracy can be obtained in real world image sequences.

Hardware design and implementation of fast DOA estimation method based on multicore DSP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Rui; Zhao, Yingxiao; Zhang, Yue; Lin, Qianqiang; Chen, Zengping

2016-10-01

In this paper, we present a high-speed real-time signal processing hardware platform based on multicore digital signal processor (DSP). The real-time signal processing platform shows several excellent characteristics including high performance computing, low power consumption, large-capacity data storage and high speed data transmission, which make it able to meet the constraint of real-time direction of arrival (DOA) estimation. To reduce the high computational complexity of DOA estimation algorithm, a novel real-valued MUSIC estimator is used. The algorithm is decomposed into several independent steps and the time consumption of each step is counted. Based on the statistics of the time consumption, we present a new parallel processing strategy to distribute the task of DOA estimation to different cores of the real-time signal processing hardware platform. Experimental results demonstrate that the high processing capability of the signal processing platform meets the constraint of real-time direction of arrival (DOA) estimation.

Gradient-based stochastic estimation of the density matrix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhentao; Chern, Gia-Wei; Batista, Cristian D.; Barros, Kipton

2018-03-01

Fast estimation of the single-particle density matrix is key to many applications in quantum chemistry and condensed matter physics. The best numerical methods leverage the fact that the density matrix elements f(H)ij decay rapidly with distance rij between orbitals. This decay is usually exponential. However, for the special case of metals at zero temperature, algebraic decay of the density matrix appears and poses a significant numerical challenge. We introduce a gradient-based probing method to estimate all local density matrix elements at a computational cost that scales linearly with system size. For zero-temperature metals, the stochastic error scales like S-(d+2)/2d, where d is the dimension and S is a prefactor to the computational cost. The convergence becomes exponential if the system is at finite temperature or is insulating.

SBML-PET: a Systems Biology Markup Language-based parameter estimation tool.

PubMed

Zi, Zhike; Klipp, Edda

2006-11-01

The estimation of model parameters from experimental data remains a bottleneck for a major breakthrough in systems biology. We present a Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) based Parameter Estimation Tool (SBML-PET). The tool is designed to enable parameter estimation for biological models including signaling pathways, gene regulation networks and metabolic pathways. SBML-PET supports import and export of the models in the SBML format. It can estimate the parameters by fitting a variety of experimental data from different experimental conditions. SBML-PET has a unique feature of supporting event definition in the SMBL model. SBML models can also be simulated in SBML-PET. Stochastic Ranking Evolution Strategy (SRES) is incorporated in SBML-PET for parameter estimation jobs. A classic ODE Solver called ODEPACK is used to solve the Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) system. http://sysbio.molgen.mpg.de/SBML-PET/. The website also contains detailed documentation for SBML-PET.

Deflection-Based Aircraft Structural Loads Estimation with Comparison to Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lizotte, Andrew M.; Lokos, William A.

2005-01-01

Traditional techniques in structural load measurement entail the correlation of a known load with strain-gage output from the individual components of a structure or machine. The use of strain gages has proved successful and is considered the standard approach for load measurement. However, remotely measuring aerodynamic loads using deflection measurement systems to determine aeroelastic deformation as a substitute to strain gages may yield lower testing costs while improving aircraft performance through reduced instrumentation weight. With a reliable strain and structural deformation measurement system this technique was examined. The objective of this study was to explore the utility of a deflection-based load estimation, using the active aeroelastic wing F/A-18 aircraft. Calibration data from ground tests performed on the aircraft were used to derive left wing-root and wing-fold bending-moment and torque load equations based on strain gages, however, for this study, point deflections were used to derive deflection-based load equations. Comparisons between the strain-gage and deflection-based methods are presented. Flight data from the phase-1 active aeroelastic wing flight program were used to validate the deflection-based load estimation method. Flight validation revealed a strong bending-moment correlation and slightly weaker torque correlation. Development of current techniques, and future studies are discussed.

Research on bathymetry estimation by Worldview-2 based with the semi-analytical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, L.; Bai, J.; Zhou, G.-W.; Zhao, Y.; Li, Y.-C.

2015-04-01

South Sea Islands of China are far away from the mainland, the reefs takes more than 95% of south sea, and most reefs scatter over interested dispute sensitive area. Thus, the methods of obtaining the reefs bathymetry accurately are urgent to be developed. Common used method, including sonar, airborne laser and remote sensing estimation, are limited by the long distance, large area and sensitive location. Remote sensing data provides an effective way for bathymetry estimation without touching over large area, by the relationship between spectrum information and bathymetry. Aimed at the water quality of the south sea of China, our paper develops a bathymetry estimation method without measured water depth. Firstly the semi-analytical optimization model of the theoretical interpretation models has been studied based on the genetic algorithm to optimize the model. Meanwhile, OpenMP parallel computing algorithm has been introduced to greatly increase the speed of the semi-analytical optimization model. One island of south sea in China is selected as our study area, the measured water depth are used to evaluate the accuracy of bathymetry estimation from Worldview-2 multispectral images. The results show that: the semi-analytical optimization model based on genetic algorithm has good results in our study area;the accuracy of estimated bathymetry in the 0-20 meters shallow water area is accepted.Semi-analytical optimization model based on genetic algorithm solves the problem of the bathymetry estimation without water depth measurement. Generally, our paper provides a new bathymetry estimation method for the sensitive reefs far away from mainland.

Point Cloud Based Relative Pose Estimation of a Satellite in Close Range

PubMed Central

Liu, Lujiang; Zhao, Gaopeng; Bo, Yuming

2016-01-01

Determination of the relative pose of satellites is essential in space rendezvous operations and on-orbit servicing missions. The key problems are the adoption of suitable sensor on board of a chaser and efficient techniques for pose estimation. This paper aims to estimate the pose of a target satellite in close range on the basis of its known model by using point cloud data generated by a flash LIDAR sensor. A novel model based pose estimation method is proposed; it includes a fast and reliable pose initial acquisition method based on global optimal searching by processing the dense point cloud data directly, and a pose tracking method based on Iterative Closest Point algorithm. Also, a simulation system is presented in this paper in order to evaluate the performance of the sensor and generate simulated sensor point cloud data. It also provides truth pose of the test target so that the pose estimation error can be quantified. To investigate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and achievable pose accuracy, numerical simulation experiments are performed; results demonstrate algorithm capability of operating with point cloud directly and large pose variations. Also, a field testing experiment is conducted and results show that the proposed method is effective. PMID:27271633

Can we improve C IV-based single epoch black hole mass estimations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mejía-Restrepo, J. E.; Trakhtenbrot, B.; Lira, P.; Netzer, H.

2018-05-01

In large optical surveys at high redshifts (z > 2), the C IV broad emission line is the most practical alternative to estimate the mass (MBH) of active super-massive black holes (SMBHs). However, mass determinations obtained with this line are known to be highly uncertain. In this work we use the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 and 12 quasar catalogues to statistically test three alternative methods put forward in the literature to improve C IV-based MBH estimations. These methods are constructed from correlations between the ratio of the C IV line-width to the low ionization line-widths (Hα, Hβ and Mg II) and several other properties of rest-frame UV emission lines. Our analysis suggests that these correction methods are of limited applicability, mostly because all of them depend on correlations that are driven by the linewidth of the C IV profile itself and not by an interconnection between the linewidth of the C IV line with the linewidth of the low ionization lines. Our results show that optical C IV-based mass estimates at high redshift cannot be a proper replacement for estimates based on IR spectroscopy of low ionization lines like Hα, Hβ and Mg II.

Estimation of rail wear limits based on rail strength investigations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-12-01

This report describes analyses performed to estimate limits on rail wear based on strength investigations. Two different failure modes are considered in this report: (1) permanent plastic bending, and (2) rail fracture. Rail bending stresses are calc...

Variable disparity estimation based intermediate view reconstruction in dynamic flow allocation over EPON-based access networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bae, Kyung-Hoon; Lee, Jungjoon; Kim, Eun-Soo

2008-06-01

In this paper, a variable disparity estimation (VDE)-based intermediate view reconstruction (IVR) in dynamic flow allocation (DFA) over an Ethernet passive optical network (EPON)-based access network is proposed. In the proposed system, the stereoscopic images are estimated by a variable block-matching algorithm (VBMA), and they are transmitted to the receiver through DFA over EPON. This scheme improves a priority-based access network by converting it to a flow-based access network with a new access mechanism and scheduling algorithm, and then 16-view images are synthesized by the IVR using VDE. Some experimental results indicate that the proposed system improves the peak-signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) to as high as 4.86 dB and reduces the processing time to 3.52 s. Additionally, the network service provider can provide upper limits of transmission delays by the flow. The modeling and simulation results, including mathematical analyses, from this scheme are also provided.

Clinical presentation of retinoblastoma in Alexandria: A step toward earlier diagnosis.

PubMed

Soliman, Sameh E; Eldomiaty, Wesam; Goweida, Mohamed B; Dowidar, Amgad

2017-01-01

To evaluate the clinical presentation of retinoblastoma in Alexandria, Egypt, correlate the timing of accurate diagnosis with the presence of advanced disease and identify causes of delayed presentation. Retrospective noncomparative single institution study reviews demographic and clinical data of all new children with retinoblastoma presenting to Alexandria Main University ocular oncology clinic (OOC) from January 2012 to June 2014. Diagnosis time was from initial parental complaint to retinoblastoma diagnosis and referral time was from retinoblastoma diagnosis to presentation to the Alexandria OCC. Delayed Diagnosis and referral were counted if >2 weeks. Advanced presentation is defined as clinical TNMH (8th edition) staging of cT2 or cT3 (international intraocular retinoblastoma classification group D or E) in at least one eye or the presence of extra-ocular disease (cT4). Seventy eyes of 47 children were eligible: 52% unilateral, 7% with family history and 96% presented with leukocorea. Sixty-four percent of children had advanced intraocular disease and none had extra-ocular disease. Delayed presentation occurred in 58% of children and was significantly associated with advanced disease in both unilaterally and bilaterally affected children (p = 0.003, 0.002 respectively). The delay in diagnosis was more in unilateral cases while the delay in referral was more in bilateral cases. The main cause of delayed presentation in unilateral retinoblastoma was misdiagnosis (30%) while parental shopping for second medical opinion (30%) was the main cause in bilateral children. Delayed diagnosis is a problem affecting retinoblastoma management. Better medical education and training, health education and earlier screening are recommended to achieve earlier diagnosis.

Hydroacoustic estimates of abundance and spatial distribution of pelagic prey fishes in western Lake Superior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mason, Doran M.; Johnson, Timothy B.; Harvey, Chris J.; Kitchell, James F.; Schram, Stephen T.; Bronte, Charles R.; Hoff, Michael H.; Lozano, Stephen J.; Trebitz, Anett S.; Schreiner, Donald R.; Lamon, E. Conrad; Hrabik, Thomas R.

2005-01-01

Lake herring (Coregonus artedi) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) are a valuable prey resource for the recovering lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in Lake Superior. However, prey biomass may be insufficient to support the current predator demand. In August 1997, we assessed the abundance and spatial distribution of pelagic coregonines and rainbow smelt in western Lake Superior by combining a 120 kHz split beam acoustics system with midwater trawls. Coregonines comprised the majority of the midwater trawl catches and the length distributions for trawl caught fish coincided with estimated sizes of acoustic targets. Overall mean pelagic prey fish biomass was 15.56 kg ha−1 with the greatest fish biomass occurring in the Apostle Islands region (27.98 kg ha−1), followed by the Duluth Minnesota region (20.22 kg ha−1), and with the lowest biomass occurring in the open waters of western Lake Superior (9.46 kg ha−1). Biomass estimates from hydroacoustics were typically 2–134 times greater than estimates derived from spring bottom trawl surveys. Prey fish biomass for Lake Superior is about order of magnitude less than acoustic estimates for Lakes Michigan and Ontario. Discrepancies observed between bioenergetics-based estimates of predator consumption of coregonines and earlier coregonine biomass estimates may be accounted for by our hydroacoustic estimates.

Estimate of mortality reduction with implementation of advanced automatic collision notification.

PubMed

Lee, Ellen; Wu, Jingshu; Kang, Thomas; Craig, Matthew

2017-05-29

Advanced Automatic Collision Notification (AACN) is a system on a motor vehicle that notifies a public safety answering point (PSAP), either directly or through a third party, that the vehicle has had a crash. AACN systems enable earlier notification of a motor vehicle crash and provide an injury prediction that can help dispatchers and first responders make better decisions about how and where to transport the patient, thus getting the patient to definitive care sooner. The purposes of the current research are to identify the target population that could benefit from AACN, and to develop a reasonable estimate range of potential lives saved with implementation of AACN within the vehicle fleet. Data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) years 2009-2015 and National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) years 2000-2015 were obtained. FARS data were used to determine absolute estimates of the target population who may receive benefit from AACN. These estimates accounted for a number of factors, such as whether a fatal occupant had nearby access to a trauma center and also was correctly identified by the injury severity prediction algorithm as having a "high probability of severe injury." NASS-CDS data were used to provide relative comparisons among subsets of the population. Specifically, relative survival rate ratios between occupants treated at trauma centers versus at non-trauma centers were determined using the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. Finally, the fatality reduction rate associated with trauma center care was combined with the previously published fatality reduction rate for faster notification time to develop a range for possible lives saved. Two relevant target populations were identified. A larger subset of 6893 fatalities can benefit only from earlier notification associated with AACN. A smaller subgroup of between 1495 and 2330 fatalities can benefit from both earlier notification and change in treatment

An Overdetermined System for Improved Autocorrelation Based Spectral Moment Estimator Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keel, Byron M.

1996-01-01

Autocorrelation based spectral moment estimators are typically derived using the Fourier transform relationship between the power spectrum and the autocorrelation function along with using either an assumed form of the autocorrelation function, e.g., Gaussian, or a generic complex form and applying properties of the characteristic function. Passarelli has used a series expansion of the general complex autocorrelation function and has expressed the coefficients in terms of central moments of the power spectrum. A truncation of this series will produce a closed system of equations which can be solved for the central moments of interest. The autocorrelation function at various lags is estimated from samples of the random process under observation. These estimates themselves are random variables and exhibit a bias and variance that is a function of the number of samples used in the estimates and the operational signal-to-noise ratio. This contributes to a degradation in performance of the moment estimators. This dissertation investigates the use autocorrelation function estimates at higher order lags to reduce the bias and standard deviation in spectral moment estimates. In particular, Passarelli's series expansion is cast in terms of an overdetermined system to form a framework under which the application of additional autocorrelation function estimates at higher order lags can be defined and assessed. The solution of the overdetermined system is the least squares solution. Furthermore, an overdetermined system can be solved for any moment or moments of interest and is not tied to a particular form of the power spectrum or corresponding autocorrelation function. As an application of this approach, autocorrelation based variance estimators are defined by a truncation of Passarelli's series expansion and applied to simulated Doppler weather radar returns which are characterized by a Gaussian shaped power spectrum. The performance of the variance estimators determined

Estimation of phase derivatives using discrete chirp-Fourier-transform-based method.

PubMed

Gorthi, Sai Siva; Rastogi, Pramod

2009-08-15

Estimation of phase derivatives is an important task in many interferometric measurements in optical metrology. This Letter introduces a method based on discrete chirp-Fourier transform for accurate and direct estimation of phase derivatives, even in the presence of noise. The method is introduced in the context of the analysis of reconstructed interference fields in digital holographic interferometry. We present simulation and experimental results demonstrating the utility of the proposed method.

Improving satellite-based post-fire evapotranspiration estimates in semi-arid regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poon, P.; Kinoshita, A. M.

2017-12-01

Climate change and anthropogenic factors contribute to the increased frequency, duration, and size of wildfires, which can alter ecosystem and hydrological processes. The loss of vegetation canopy and ground cover reduces interception and alters evapotranspiration (ET) dynamics in riparian areas, which can impact rainfall-runoff partitioning. Previous research evaluated the spatial and temporal trends of ET based on burn severity and observed an annual decrease of 120 mm on average for three years after fire. Building upon these results, this research focuses on the Coyote Fire in San Diego, California (USA), which burned a total of 76 km2 in 2003 to calibrate and improve satellite-based ET estimates in semi-arid regions affected by wildfire. The current work utilizes satellite-based products and techniques such as the Google Earth Engine Application programming interface (API). Various ET models (ie. Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance Model (SSEBop)) are compared to the latent heat flux from two AmeriFlux eddy covariance towers, Sky Oaks Young (US-SO3), and Old Stand (US-SO2), from 2000 - 2015. The Old Stand tower has a low burn severity and the Young Stand tower has a moderate to high burn severity. Both towers are used to validate spatial ET estimates. Furthermore, variables and indices, such as Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), and the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) are utilized to evaluate satellite-based ET through a multivariate statistical analysis at both sites. This point-scale study will able to improve ET estimates in spatially diverse regions. Results from this research will contribute to the development of a post-wildfire ET model for semi-arid regions. Accurate estimates of post-fire ET will provide a better representation of vegetation and hydrologic recovery, which can be used to improve hydrologic models and predictions.

Vibration-based angular speed estimation for multi-stage wind turbine gearboxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peeters, Cédric; Leclère, Quentin; Antoni, Jérôme; Guillaume, Patrick; Helsen, Jan

2017-05-01

Most processing tools based on frequency analysis of vibration signals are only applicable for stationary speed regimes. Speed variation causes the spectral content to smear, which encumbers most conventional fault detection techniques. To solve the problem of non-stationary speed conditions, the instantaneous angular speed (IAS) is estimated. Wind turbine gearboxes however are typically multi-stage gearboxes, consisting of multiple shafts, rotating at different speeds. Fitting a sensor (e.g. a tachometer) to every single stage is not always feasible. As such there is a need to estimate the IAS of every single shaft based on the vibration signals measured by the accelerometers. This paper investigates the performance of the multi-order probabilistic approach for IAS estimation on experimental case studies of wind turbines. This method takes into account the meshing orders of the gears present in the system and has the advantage that a priori it is not necessary to associate harmonics with a certain periodic mechanical event, which increases the robustness of the method. It is found that the MOPA has the potential to easily outperform standard band-pass filtering techniques for speed estimation. More knowledge of the gearbox kinematics is beneficial for the MOPA performance, but even with very little knowledge about the meshing orders, the MOPA still performs sufficiently well to compete with the standard speed estimation techniques. This observation is proven on two different data sets, both originating from vibration measurements on the gearbox housing of a wind turbine.

Effects of the length of central cancer registry operations on identification of subsequent cancers and on survival estimates.

PubMed

Qiao, Baozhen; Schymura, Maria J; Kahn, Amy R

2016-10-01

Population-based cancer survival analyses have traditionally been based on the first primary cancer. Recent studies have brought this practice into question, arguing that varying registry reference dates affect the ability to identify earlier cancers, resulting in selection bias. We used a theoretical approach to evaluate the extent to which the length of registry operations affects the classification of first versus subsequent cancers and consequently survival estimates. Sequence number central was used to classify tumors from the New York State Cancer Registry, diagnosed 2001-2010, as either first primaries (value=0 or 1) or subsequent primaries (≥2). A set of three sequence numbers, each based on an assumed reference year (1976, 1986 or 1996), was assigned to each tumor. Percent of subsequent cancers was evaluated by reference year, cancer site and age. 5-year relative survival estimates were compared under four different selection scenarios. The percent of cancer cases classified as subsequent primaries was 15.3%, 14.3% and 11.2% for reference years 1976, 1986 and 1996, respectively; and varied by cancer site and age. When only the first primary was included, shorter registry operation time was associated with slightly lower 5-year survival estimates. When all primary cancers were included, survival estimates decreased, with the largest decreases seen for the earliest reference year. Registry operation length affected the identification of subsequent cancers, but the overall effect of this misclassification on survival estimates was small. Survival estimates based on all primary cancers were slightly lower, but might be more comparable across registries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Earlier time to aerobic exercise is associated with faster recovery following acute sport concussion

PubMed Central

Richards, Doug; Comper, Paul; Hutchison, Michael G.

2018-01-01

Objective To determine whether earlier time to initiation of aerobic exercise following acute concussion is associated with time to full return to (1) sport and (2) school or work. Methods A retrospective stratified propensity score survival analysis of acute (≤14 days) concussion was used to determine whether time (days) to initiation of aerobic exercise post-concussion was associated with, both, time (days) to full return to (1) sport and (2) school or work. Results A total of 253 acute concussions [median (IQR) age, 17.0 (15.0–20.0) years; 148 (58.5%) males] were included in this study. Multivariate Cox regression models identified that earlier time to aerobic exercise was associated with faster return to sport and school/work adjusting for other covariates, including quintile propensity strata. For each successive day in delay to initiation of aerobic exercise, individuals had a less favourable recovery trajectory. Initiating aerobic exercise at 3 and 7 days following injury was associated with a respective 36.5% (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.53–0.76) and 73.2% (HR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.16–0.45) reduced probability of faster full return to sport compared to within 1 day; and a respective 45.9% (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.44–0.66) and 83.1% (HR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.10–0.30) reduced probability of faster full return to school/work. Additionally, concussion history, symptom severity, LOC deleteriously influenced concussion recovery. Conclusion Earlier initiation of aerobic exercise was associated with faster full return to sport and school or work. This study provides greater insight into the benefits and safety of aerobic exercise within the first week of the injury. PMID:29668716

Factors associated with late diagnosis of HIV infection and missed opportunities for earlier testing.

PubMed

Gullón, Alejandra; Verdejo, José; de Miguel, Rosa; Gómez, Ana; Sanz, Jesús

2016-10-01

Late diagnosis (LD) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection continues to be a significant problem that increases disease burden both for patients and for the public health system. Guidelines have been updated in order to facilitate earlier HIV diagnosis, introducing "indicator condition-guided HIV testing". In this study, we analysed the frequency of LD and associated risk factors. We retrospectively identified those cases that could be considered missed opportunities for an earlier diagnosis. All patients newly diagnosed with HIV infection who attended Hospital La Princesa, Madrid (Spain) between 2007 and 2014 were analysed. We collected epidemiological, clinical and immunological data. We also reviewed electronic medical records from the year before the HIV diagnosis to search for medical consultations due to clinical indicators. HIV infection was diagnosed in 354 patients. The median CD4 count at presentation was 352 cells/mm(3). Overall, 158 patients (50%) met the definition of LD, and 97 (30.7%) the diagnosis of advanced disease. LD was associated with older age and was more frequent amongst immigrants. Heterosexual relations and injection drug use were more likely to be the reasons for LD than relations between men who have sex with men. During the year preceding the diagnosis, 46.6% of the patients had sought medical advice owing to the presence of clinical indicators that should have led to HIV testing. Of those, 24 cases (14.5%) were classified as missed opportunities for earlier HIV diagnosis because testing was not performed. According to these results, all health workers should pursue early HIV diagnosis through the proper implementation of HIV testing guidelines. Such an approach would prove directly beneficial to the patient and indirectly beneficial to the general population through the reduction in the risk of transmission.

An Inertial Sensor-Based Method for Estimating the Athlete's Relative Joint Center Positions and Center of Mass Kinematics in Alpine Ski Racing

PubMed Central

Fasel, Benedikt; Spörri, Jörg; Schütz, Pascal; Lorenzetti, Silvio; Aminian, Kamiar

2017-01-01

For the purpose of gaining a deeper understanding of the relationship between external training load and health in competitive alpine skiing, an accurate and precise estimation of the athlete's kinematics is an essential methodological prerequisite. This study proposes an inertial sensor-based method to estimate the athlete's relative joint center positions and center of mass (CoM) kinematics in alpine skiing. Eleven inertial sensors were fixed to the lower and upper limbs, trunk, and head. The relative positions of the ankle, knee, hip, shoulder, elbow, and wrist joint centers, as well as the athlete's CoM kinematics were validated against a marker-based optoelectronic motion capture system during indoor carpet skiing. For all joints centers analyzed, position accuracy (mean error) was below 110 mm and precision (error standard deviation) was below 30 mm. CoM position accuracy and precision were 25.7 and 6.7 mm, respectively. Both the accuracy and precision of the system to estimate the distance between the ankle of the outside leg and CoM (measure quantifying the skier's overall vertical motion) were found to be below 11 mm. Some poorer accuracy and precision values (below 77 mm) were observed for the athlete's fore-aft position (i.e., the projection of the outer ankle-CoM vector onto the line corresponding to the projection of ski's longitudinal axis on the snow surface). In addition, the system was found to be sensitive enough to distinguish between different types of turns (wide/narrow). Thus, the method proposed in this paper may also provide a useful, pervasive way to monitor and control adverse external loading patterns that occur during regular on-snow training. Moreover, as demonstrated earlier, such an approach might have a certain potential to quantify competition time, movement repetitions and/or the accelerations acting on the different segments of the human body. However, prior to getting feasible for applications in daily training, future studies

An Inertial Sensor-Based Method for Estimating the Athlete's Relative Joint Center Positions and Center of Mass Kinematics in Alpine Ski Racing.

PubMed

Fasel, Benedikt; Spörri, Jörg; Schütz, Pascal; Lorenzetti, Silvio; Aminian, Kamiar

2017-01-01

For the purpose of gaining a deeper understanding of the relationship between external training load and health in competitive alpine skiing, an accurate and precise estimation of the athlete's kinematics is an essential methodological prerequisite. This study proposes an inertial sensor-based method to estimate the athlete's relative joint center positions and center of mass (CoM) kinematics in alpine skiing. Eleven inertial sensors were fixed to the lower and upper limbs, trunk, and head. The relative positions of the ankle, knee, hip, shoulder, elbow, and wrist joint centers, as well as the athlete's CoM kinematics were validated against a marker-based optoelectronic motion capture system during indoor carpet skiing. For all joints centers analyzed, position accuracy (mean error) was below 110 mm and precision (error standard deviation) was below 30 mm. CoM position accuracy and precision were 25.7 and 6.7 mm, respectively. Both the accuracy and precision of the system to estimate the distance between the ankle of the outside leg and CoM (measure quantifying the skier's overall vertical motion) were found to be below 11 mm. Some poorer accuracy and precision values (below 77 mm) were observed for the athlete's fore-aft position (i.e., the projection of the outer ankle-CoM vector onto the line corresponding to the projection of ski's longitudinal axis on the snow surface). In addition, the system was found to be sensitive enough to distinguish between different types of turns (wide/narrow). Thus, the method proposed in this paper may also provide a useful, pervasive way to monitor and control adverse external loading patterns that occur during regular on-snow training. Moreover, as demonstrated earlier, such an approach might have a certain potential to quantify competition time, movement repetitions and/or the accelerations acting on the different segments of the human body. However, prior to getting feasible for applications in daily training, future studies

Rocket Based Combined Cycle Exchange Inlet Performance Estimation at Supersonic Speeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murzionak, Aliaksandr

A method to estimate the performance of an exchange inlet for a Rocket Based Combined Cycle engine is developed. This method is to be used for exchange inlet geometry optimization and as such should be able to predict properties that can be used in the design process within a reasonable amount of time to allow multiple configurations to be evaluated. The method is based on a curve fit of the shocks developed around the major components of the inlet using solutions for shocks around sharp cones and 2D estimations of the shocks around wedges with blunt leading edges. The total pressure drop across the estimated shocks as well as the mass flow rate through the exchange inlet are calculated. The estimations for a selected range of free-stream Mach numbers between 1.1 and 7 are compared against numerical finite volume method simulations which were performed using available commercial software (Ansys-CFX). The total pressure difference between the two methods is within 10% for the tested Mach numbers of 5 and below, while for the Mach 7 test case the difference is 30%. The mass flow rate on average differs by less than 5% for all tested cases with the maximum difference not exceeding 10%. The estimation method takes less than 3 seconds on 3.0 GHz single core processor to complete the calculations for a single flight condition as oppose to over 5 days on 8 cores at 2.4 GHz system while using 3D finite volume method simulation with 1.5 million elements mesh. This makes the estimation method suitable for the use with exchange inlet geometry optimization algorithm.

Estimation of bio-signal based on human motion for integrated visualization of daily-life.

PubMed

Umetani, Tomohiro; Matsukawa, Tsuyoshi; Yokoyama, Kiyoko

2007-01-01

This paper describes a method for the estimation of bio-signals based on human motion in daily life for an integrated visualization system. The recent advancement of computers and measurement technology has facilitated the integrated visualization of bio-signals and human motion data. It is desirable to obtain a method to understand the activities of muscles based on human motion data and evaluate the change in physiological parameters according to human motion for visualization applications. We suppose that human motion is generated by the activities of muscles reflected from the brain to bio-signals such as electromyograms. This paper introduces a method for the estimation of bio-signals based on neural networks. This method can estimate the other physiological parameters based on the same procedure. The experimental results show the feasibility of the proposed method.

Optimization-based scatter estimation using primary modulation for computed tomography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yi; Ma, Jingchen; Zhao, Jun, E-mail: junzhao

Purpose: Scatter reduces the image quality in computed tomography (CT), but scatter correction remains a challenge. A previously proposed primary modulation method simultaneously obtains the primary and scatter in a single scan. However, separating the scatter and primary in primary modulation is challenging because it is an underdetermined problem. In this study, an optimization-based scatter estimation (OSE) algorithm is proposed to estimate and correct scatter. Methods: In the concept of primary modulation, the primary is modulated, but the scatter remains smooth by inserting a modulator between the x-ray source and the object. In the proposed algorithm, an objective function ismore » designed for separating the scatter and primary. Prior knowledge is incorporated in the optimization-based framework to improve the accuracy of the estimation: (1) the primary is always positive; (2) the primary is locally smooth and the scatter is smooth; (3) the location of penumbra can be determined; and (4) the scatter-contaminated data provide knowledge about which part is smooth. Results: The simulation study shows that the edge-preserving weighting in OSE improves the estimation accuracy near the object boundary. Simulation study also demonstrates that OSE outperforms the two existing primary modulation algorithms for most regions of interest in terms of the CT number accuracy and noise. The proposed method was tested on a clinical cone beam CT, demonstrating that OSE corrects the scatter even when the modulator is not accurately registered. Conclusions: The proposed OSE algorithm improves the robustness and accuracy in scatter estimation and correction. This method is promising for scatter correction of various kinds of x-ray imaging modalities, such as x-ray radiography, cone beam CT, and the fourth-generation CT.« less

An automatic iris occlusion estimation method based on high-dimensional density estimation.

PubMed

Li, Yung-Hui; Savvides, Marios

2013-04-01

Iris masks play an important role in iris recognition. They indicate which part of the iris texture map is useful and which part is occluded or contaminated by noisy image artifacts such as eyelashes, eyelids, eyeglasses frames, and specular reflections. The accuracy of the iris mask is extremely important. The performance of the iris recognition system will decrease dramatically when the iris mask is inaccurate, even when the best recognition algorithm is used. Traditionally, people used the rule-based algorithms to estimate iris masks from iris images. However, the accuracy of the iris masks generated this way is questionable. In this work, we propose to use Figueiredo and Jain's Gaussian Mixture Models (FJ-GMMs) to model the underlying probabilistic distributions of both valid and invalid regions on iris images. We also explored possible features and found that Gabor Filter Bank (GFB) provides the most discriminative information for our goal. Finally, we applied Simulated Annealing (SA) technique to optimize the parameters of GFB in order to achieve the best recognition rate. Experimental results show that the masks generated by the proposed algorithm increase the iris recognition rate on both ICE2 and UBIRIS dataset, verifying the effectiveness and importance of our proposed method for iris occlusion estimation.

World Health Organization recommendations are often strong based on low confidence in effect estimates.

PubMed

Alexander, Paul E; Bero, Lisa; Montori, Victor M; Brito, Juan Pablo; Stoltzfus, Rebecca; Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Neumann, Ignacio; Rave, Supriya; Guyatt, Gordon

2014-06-01

Expert guideline panelists are sometimes reluctant to offer weak/conditional/contingent recommendations. Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) guidance warns against strong recommendations when confidence in effect estimates is low or very low, suggesting that such recommendations may seldom be justified. We aim to characterize the classification of strength of recommendations and confidence in estimates in World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines that used the GRADE approach and graded both strength and confidence (GRADEd). We reviewed all WHO guidelines (January 2007 to December 2012), identified those that were GRADEd, and, in these, examined the classifications of strong and weak and associated confidence in estimates (high, moderate, low, and very low). We identified 116 WHO guidelines in which 43 (37%) were GRADEd and had 456 recommendations, of which 289 (63.4%) were strong and 167 (36.6%) were conditional/weak. Of the 289 strong recommendations, 95 (33.0%) were based on evidence warranting low confidence in estimates and 65 (22.5%) on evidence warranting very low confidence in estimates (55.5% strong recommendations overall based on low or very low confidence in estimates). Strong recommendations based on low or very low confidence estimates are very frequently made in WHO guidelines. Further study to determine the reasons for such high uncertainty recommendations is warranted. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Base pair probability estimates improve the prediction accuracy of RNA non-canonical base pairs

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Prediction of RNA tertiary structure from sequence is an important problem, but generating accurate structure models for even short sequences remains difficult. Predictions of RNA tertiary structure tend to be least accurate in loop regions, where non-canonical pairs are important for determining the details of structure. Non-canonical pairs can be predicted using a knowledge-based model of structure that scores nucleotide cyclic motifs, or NCMs. In this work, a partition function algorithm is introduced that allows the estimation of base pairing probabilities for both canonical and non-canonical interactions. Pairs that are predicted to be probable are more likely to be found in the true structure than pairs of lower probability. Pair probability estimates can be further improved by predicting the structure conserved across multiple homologous sequences using the TurboFold algorithm. These pairing probabilities, used in concert with prior knowledge of the canonical secondary structure, allow accurate inference of non-canonical pairs, an important step towards accurate prediction of the full tertiary structure. Software to predict non-canonical base pairs and pairing probabilities is now provided as part of the RNAstructure software package. PMID:29107980

Estimation of fire emissions from satellite-based measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichoku, C. M.; Kaufman, Y. J.

2004-12-01

Biomass burning is a worldwide phenomenon affecting many vegetated parts of the globe regularly. Fires emit large quantities of aerosol and trace gases into the atmosphere, thus influencing the atmospheric chemistry and climate. Traditional methods of fire emissions estimation achieved only limited success, because they were based on peripheral information such as rainfall patterns, vegetation types and changes, agricultural practices, and surface ozone concentrations. During the last several years, rapid developments in satellite remote sensing has allowed more direct estimation of smoke emissions using remotely-sensed fire data. However, current methods use fire pixel counts or burned areas, thereby depending on the accuracy of independent estimations of the biomass fuel loadings, combustion efficiency, and emission factors. With the enhanced radiometric range of its 4-micron fire channel, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, which flies aboard both of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra and Aqua Satellites, is able to measure the rate of release of fire radiative energy (FRE) in MJ/s (something that older sensors could not do). MODIS also measures aerosol distribution. Taking advantage of these new resources, we have developed a procedure combining MODIS fire and aerosol products to derive FRE-based smoke emission coefficients (Ce in kg/MJ) for different regions of the globe. These coefficients are simply used to multiply FRE from MODIS to derive the emitted smoke aerosol mass. Results from this novel methodology are very encouraging. For instance, it was found that the smoke total particulate mass emission coefficient for the Brazilian Cerrado ecosystem (approximately 0.022 kg/MJ) is about twice the value for North America or Australia, but about 50 percent lower than the value for Zambia in southern Africa.

Estimation of Fire Emissions from Satellite-Based Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ichoku, Charles; Kaufman, Yoram J.

2004-01-01

Biomass burning is a worldwide phenomenon affecting many vegetated parts of the globe regularly. Fires emit large quantities of aerosol and trace gases into the atmosphere, thus influencing the atmospheric chemistry and climate. Traditional methods of fire emissions estimation achieved only limited success, because they were based on peripheral information such as rainfall patterns, vegetation types and changes, agricultural practices, and surface ozone concentrations. During the last several years, rapid developments in satellite remote sensing has allowed more direct estimation of smoke emissions using remotely-sensed fire data. However, current methods use fire pixel counts or burned areas, thereby depending on the accuracy of independent estimations of the biomass fuel loadings, combustion efficiency, and emission factors. With the enhanced radiometric range of its 4-micron fire channel, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, which flies aboard both of the Earth Observing System EOS) Terra and Aqua Satellites, is able to measure the rate of release of fire radiative energy (FRE) in MJ/s (something that older sensors could not do). MODIS also measures aerosol distribution. Taking advantage of these new resources, we have developed a procedure combining MODIS fire and aerosol products to derive FRE-based smoke emission coefficients (C(e), in kg/MJ) for different regions of the globe. These coefficients are simply used to multiply FRE from MODIS to derive the emitted smoke aerosol mass. Results from this novel methodology are very encouraging. For instance, it was found that the smoke total particulate mass emission coefficient for the Brazilian Cerrado ecosystem (approximately 0.022 kg/MJ) is about twice the value for North America, Western Europe, or Australia, but about 50% lower than the value for southern Africa.

Empirical Likelihood-Based Estimation of the Treatment Effect in a Pretest-Posttest Study.

PubMed

Huang, Chiung-Yu; Qin, Jing; Follmann, Dean A

2008-09-01

The pretest-posttest study design is commonly used in medical and social science research to assess the effect of a treatment or an intervention. Recently, interest has been rising in developing inference procedures that improve efficiency while relaxing assumptions used in the pretest-posttest data analysis, especially when the posttest measurement might be missing. In this article we propose a semiparametric estimation procedure based on empirical likelihood (EL) that incorporates the common baseline covariate information to improve efficiency. The proposed method also yields an asymptotically unbiased estimate of the response distribution. Thus functions of the response distribution, such as the median, can be estimated straightforwardly, and the EL method can provide a more appealing estimate of the treatment effect for skewed data. We show that, compared with existing methods, the proposed EL estimator has appealing theoretical properties, especially when the working model for the underlying relationship between the pretest and posttest measurements is misspecified. A series of simulation studies demonstrates that the EL-based estimator outperforms its competitors when the working model is misspecified and the data are missing at random. We illustrate the methods by analyzing data from an AIDS clinical trial (ACTG 175).

Empirical Likelihood-Based Estimation of the Treatment Effect in a Pretest–Posttest Study

PubMed Central

Huang, Chiung-Yu; Qin, Jing; Follmann, Dean A.

2013-01-01

The pretest–posttest study design is commonly used in medical and social science research to assess the effect of a treatment or an intervention. Recently, interest has been rising in developing inference procedures that improve efficiency while relaxing assumptions used in the pretest–posttest data analysis, especially when the posttest measurement might be missing. In this article we propose a semiparametric estimation procedure based on empirical likelihood (EL) that incorporates the common baseline covariate information to improve efficiency. The proposed method also yields an asymptotically unbiased estimate of the response distribution. Thus functions of the response distribution, such as the median, can be estimated straightforwardly, and the EL method can provide a more appealing estimate of the treatment effect for skewed data. We show that, compared with existing methods, the proposed EL estimator has appealing theoretical properties, especially when the working model for the underlying relationship between the pretest and posttest measurements is misspecified. A series of simulation studies demonstrates that the EL-based estimator outperforms its competitors when the working model is misspecified and the data are missing at random. We illustrate the methods by analyzing data from an AIDS clinical trial (ACTG 175). PMID:23729942

Effects of Estimation Bias on Multiple-Category Classification with an IRT-Based Adaptive Classification Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Xiangdong; Poggio, John C.; Glasnapp, Douglas R.

2006-01-01

The effects of five ability estimators, that is, maximum likelihood estimator, weighted likelihood estimator, maximum a posteriori, expected a posteriori, and Owen's sequential estimator, on the performances of the item response theory-based adaptive classification procedure on multiple categories were studied via simulations. The following…

Estimating Classification Accuracy for Complex Decision Rules Based on Multiple Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Douglas, Karen M.; Mislevy, Robert J.

2010-01-01

Important decisions about students are made by combining multiple measures using complex decision rules. Although methods for characterizing the accuracy of decisions based on a single measure have been suggested by numerous researchers, such methods are not useful for estimating the accuracy of decisions based on multiple measures. This study…

Optical and Acoustic Sensor-Based 3D Ball Motion Estimation for Ball Sport Simulators †.

PubMed

Seo, Sang-Woo; Kim, Myunggyu; Kim, Yejin

2018-04-25

Estimation of the motion of ball-shaped objects is essential for the operation of ball sport simulators. In this paper, we propose an estimation system for 3D ball motion, including speed and angle of projection, by using acoustic vector and infrared (IR) scanning sensors. Our system is comprised of three steps to estimate a ball motion: sound-based ball firing detection, sound source localization, and IR scanning for motion analysis. First, an impulsive sound classification based on the mel-frequency cepstrum and feed-forward neural network is introduced to detect the ball launch sound. An impulsive sound source localization using a 2D microelectromechanical system (MEMS) microphones and delay-and-sum beamforming is presented to estimate the firing position. The time and position of a ball in 3D space is determined from a high-speed infrared scanning method. Our experimental results demonstrate that the estimation of ball motion based on sound allows a wider activity area than similar camera-based methods. Thus, it can be practically applied to various simulations in sports such as soccer and baseball.

Assessment of satellite-based precipitation estimates over Paraguay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oreggioni Weiberlen, Fiorella; Báez Benítez, Julián

2018-04-01

Satellite-based precipitation estimates represent a potential alternative source of input data in a plethora of meteorological and hydrological applications, especially in regions characterized by a low density of rain gauge stations. Paraguay provides a good example of a case where the use of satellite-based precipitation could be advantageous. This study aims to evaluate the version 7 of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA V7; 3B42 V7) and the version 1.0 of the purely satellite-based product of the Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique (CMORPH RAW) through their comparison with daily in situ precipitation measurements from 1998 to 2012 over Paraguay. The statistical assessment is conducted with several commonly used indexes. Specifically, to evaluate the accuracy of daily precipitation amounts, mean error (ME), root mean square error (RMSE), BIAS, and coefficient of determination (R 2) are used, and to analyze the capability to correctly detect different precipitation intensities, false alarm ratio (FAR), frequency bias index (FBI), and probability of detection (POD) are applied to various rainfall rates (0, 0.1, 0.5, 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 40, 60, and 80 mm/day). Results indicate that TMPA V7 has a better performance than CMORPH RAW over Paraguay. TMPA V7 has higher accuracy in the estimation of daily rainfall volumes and greater precision in the detection of wet days (> 0 mm/day). However, both satellite products show a lower ability to appropriately detect high intensity precipitation events.

Return of hunger following a relatively high carbohydrate breakfast is associated with earlier recorded glucose peak and nadir

PubMed Central

Chandler-Laney, Paula C.; Morrison, Shannon A.; Goree, Laura Lee T.; Ellis, Amy C.; Casazza, Krista; Desmond, Renee; Gower, Barbara A

2014-01-01

Objective To test the hypothesis that a breakfast meal with high carbohydrate/ low fat results in an earlier increase in postprandial glucose and insulin, a greater decrease below baseline in postprandial glucose, and an earlier return of appetite, compared to a low carbohydrate/high fat meal. Design Overweight but otherwise healthy adults (n=64) were maintained on one of two eucaloric diets: high carbohydrate/low fat (HC/LF; 55:27:18% kcals from carbohydrate: fat: protein) versus low carbohydrate/high fat (LC/HF; 43:39:18% kcals from carbohydrate: fat: protein). After 4 weeks of acclimation to the diets, participants underwent a meal test during which circulating glucose and insulin and self-reported hunger and fullness, were measured before and after consumption of breakfast from their assigned diets. Results The LC/HF meal resulted in a later time at the highest and lowest recorded glucose, higher glucose concentrations at 3 and 4 hours post-meal, and lower insulin incremental area under the curve. Participants consuming the LC/HF meal reported lower appetite 3 and 4 hours following the meal, a response that was associated with the timing of the highest and lowest recorded glucose. Conclusions Modest increases in meal carbohydrate content at the expense of fat content may facilitate weight gain over the long-term by contributing to an earlier rise and fall of postprandial glucose concentrations and an earlier return of appetite. PMID:24819342

Difference-based ridge-type estimator of parameters in restricted partial linear model with correlated errors.

PubMed

Wu, Jibo

2016-01-01

In this article, a generalized difference-based ridge estimator is proposed for the vector parameter in a partial linear model when the errors are dependent. It is supposed that some additional linear constraints may hold to the whole parameter space. Its mean-squared error matrix is compared with the generalized restricted difference-based estimator. Finally, the performance of the new estimator is explained by a simulation study and a numerical example.

On-Board Event-Based State Estimation for Trajectory Approaching and Tracking of a Vehicle

PubMed Central

Martínez-Rey, Miguel; Espinosa, Felipe; Gardel, Alfredo; Santos, Carlos

2015-01-01

For the problem of pose estimation of an autonomous vehicle using networked external sensors, the processing capacity and battery consumption of these sensors, as well as the communication channel load should be optimized. Here, we report an event-based state estimator (EBSE) consisting of an unscented Kalman filter that uses a triggering mechanism based on the estimation error covariance matrix to request measurements from the external sensors. This EBSE generates the events of the estimator module on-board the vehicle and, thus, allows the sensors to remain in stand-by mode until an event is generated. The proposed algorithm requests a measurement every time the estimation distance root mean squared error (DRMS) value, obtained from the estimator's covariance matrix, exceeds a threshold value. This triggering threshold can be adapted to the vehicle's working conditions rendering the estimator even more efficient. An example of the use of the proposed EBSE is given, where the autonomous vehicle must approach and follow a reference trajectory. By making the threshold a function of the distance to the reference location, the estimator can halve the use of the sensors with a negligible deterioration in the performance of the approaching maneuver. PMID:26102489

ESTIMATION OF THE RATE OF VOC EMISSIONS FROM SOLVENT-BASED INDOOR COATING MATERIALS BASED ON PRODUCT FORMULATION

EPA Science Inventory

Two computational methods are proposed for estimation of the emission rate of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from solvent-based indoor coating materials based on the knowledge of product formulation. The first method utilizes two previously developed mass transfer models with ...

Estimation of Rainfall Sampling Uncertainty: A Comparison of Two Diverse Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steiner, Matthias; Zhang, Yu; Baeck, Mary Lynn; Wood, Eric F.; Smith, James A.; Bell, Thomas L.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The spatial and temporal intermittence of rainfall causes the averages of satellite observations of rain rate to differ from the "true" average rain rate over any given area and time period, even if the satellite observations are perfectly accurate. The difference of satellite averages based on occasional observation by satellite systems and the continuous-time average of rain rate is referred to as sampling error. In this study, rms sampling error estimates are obtained for average rain rates over boxes 100 km, 200 km, and 500 km on a side, for averaging periods of 1 day, 5 days, and 30 days. The study uses a multi-year, merged radar data product provided by Weather Services International Corp. at a resolution of 2 km in space and 15 min in time, over an area of the central U.S. extending from 35N to 45N in latitude and 100W to 80W in longitude. The intervals between satellite observations are assumed to be equal, and similar In size to what present and future satellite systems are able to provide (from 1 h to 12 h). The sampling error estimates are obtained using a resampling method called "resampling by shifts," and are compared to sampling error estimates proposed by Bell based on earlier work by Laughlin. The resampling estimates are found to scale with areal size and time period as the theory predicts. The dependence on average rain rate and time interval between observations is also similar to what the simple theory suggests.

Differences in estimating terrestrial water flux from three satellite-based Priestley-Taylor algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Yunjun; Liang, Shunlin; Yu, Jian; Zhao, Shaohua; Lin, Yi; Jia, Kun; Zhang, Xiaotong; Cheng, Jie; Xie, Xianhong; Sun, Liang; Wang, Xuanyu; Zhang, Lilin

2017-04-01

Accurate estimates of terrestrial latent heat of evaporation (LE) for different biomes are essential to assess energy, water and carbon cycles. Different satellite- based Priestley-Taylor (PT) algorithms have been developed to estimate LE in different biomes. However, there are still large uncertainties in LE estimates for different PT algorithms. In this study, we evaluated differences in estimating terrestrial water flux in different biomes from three satellite-based PT algorithms using ground-observed data from eight eddy covariance (EC) flux towers of China. The results reveal that large differences in daily LE estimates exist based on EC measurements using three PT algorithms among eight ecosystem types. At the forest (CBS) site, all algorithms demonstrate high performance with low root mean square error (RMSE) (less than 16 W/m2) and high squared correlation coefficient (R2) (more than 0.9). At the village (HHV) site, the ATI-PT algorithm has the lowest RMSE (13.9 W/m2), with bias of 2.7 W/m2 and R2 of 0.66. At the irrigated crop (HHM) site, almost all models algorithms underestimate LE, indicating these algorithms may not capture wet soil evaporation by parameterization of the soil moisture. In contrast, the SM-PT algorithm shows high values of R2 (comparable to those of ATI-PT and VPD-PT) at most other (grass, wetland, desert and Gobi) biomes. There are no obvious differences in seasonal LE estimation using MODIS NDVI and LAI at most sites. However, all meteorological or satellite-based water-related parameters used in the PT algorithm have uncertainties for optimizing water constraints. This analysis highlights the need to improve PT algorithms with regard to water constraints.

Lake Erie Yellow perch age estimation based on three structures: Precision, processing times, and management implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vandergoot, C.S.; Bur, M.T.; Powell, K.A.

2008-01-01

Yellow perch Perca flavescens support economically important recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie and are intensively managed. Age estimation represents an integral component in the management of Lake Erie yellow perch stocks, as age-structured population models are used to set safe harvest levels on an annual basis. We compared the precision associated with yellow perch (N = 251) age estimates from scales, sagittal otoliths, and anal spine sections and evaluated the time required to process and estimate age from each structure. Three readers of varying experience estimated ages. The precision (mean coefficient of variation) of estimates among readers was 1% for sagittal otoliths, 5-6% for anal spines, and 11-13% for scales. Agreement rates among readers were 94-95% for otoliths, 71-76% for anal spines, and 45-50% for scales. Systematic age estimation differences were evident among scale and anal spine readers; less-experienced readers tended to underestimate ages of yellow perch older than age 4 relative to estimates made by an experienced reader. Mean scale age tended to underestimate ages of age-6 and older fish relative to otolith ages estimated by an experienced reader. Total annual mortality estimates based on scale ages were 20% higher than those based on otolith ages; mortality estimates based on anal spine ages were 4% higher than those based on otolith ages. Otoliths required more removal and preparation time than scales and anal spines, but age estimation time was substantially lower for otoliths than for the other two structures. We suggest the use of otoliths or anal spines for age estimation in yellow perch (regardless of length) from Lake Erie and other systems where precise age estimates are necessary, because age estimation errors resulting from the use of scales could generate incorrect management decisions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

A random utility based estimation framework for the household activity pattern problem.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-01

This paper develops a random utility based estimation framework for the Household Activity : Pattern Problem (HAPP). Based on the realization that output of complex activity-travel decisions : form a continuous pattern in space-time dimension, the es...

Mean size estimation yields left-side bias: Role of attention on perceptual averaging.

PubMed

Li, Kuei-An; Yeh, Su-Ling

2017-11-01

The human visual system can estimate mean size of a set of items effectively; however, little is known about whether information on each visual field contributes equally to the mean size estimation. In this study, we examined whether a left-side bias (LSB)-perceptual judgment tends to depend more heavily on left visual field's inputs-affects mean size estimation. Participants were instructed to estimate the mean size of 16 spots. In half of the trials, the mean size of the spots on the left side was larger than that on the right side (the left-larger condition) and vice versa (the right-larger condition). Our results illustrated an LSB: A larger estimated mean size was found in the left-larger condition than in the right-larger condition (Experiment 1), and the LSB vanished when participants' attention was effectively cued to the right side (Experiment 2b). Furthermore, the magnitude of LSB increased with stimulus-onset asynchrony (SOA), when spots on the left side were presented earlier than the right side. In contrast, the LSB vanished and then induced a reversed effect with SOA when spots on the right side were presented earlier (Experiment 3). This study offers the first piece of evidence suggesting that LSB does have a significant influence on mean size estimation of a group of items, which is induced by a leftward attentional bias that enhances the prior entry effect on the left side.

Estimating the Counterfactual: How Many Uninsured Adults Would There Be Today Without the ACA?

PubMed

Blumberg, Linda J; Garrett, Bowen; Holahan, John

2016-01-01

Time lags in receiving data from long-standing, large federal surveys complicate real-time estimation of the coverage effects of full Affordable Care Act (ACA) implementation. Fast-turnaround household surveys fill some of the void in data on recent changes to insurance coverage, but they lack the historical data that allow analysts to account for trends that predate the ACA, economic fluctuations, and earlier public program expansions when predicting how many people would be uninsured without comprehensive health care reform. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) from 2000 to 2012 and the Health Reform Monitoring Survey (HRMS) data for 2013 and 2015, this article develops an approach to estimate the number of people who would be uninsured in the absence of the ACA and isolates the change in coverage as of March 2015 that can be attributed to the ACA. We produce counterfactual forecasts of the number of uninsured absent the ACA for 9 age-income groups and compare these estimates with 2015 estimates based on HRMS relative coverage changes applied to CPS-based population estimates. As of March 2015, we find the ACA has reduced the number of uninsured adults by 18.1 million compared with the number who would have been uninsured at that time had the law not been implemented. That decline represents a 46% reduction in the number of nonelderly adults without insurance. The approach developed here can be applied to other federal data and timely surveys to provide a range of estimates of the overall effects of reform. © The Author(s) 2016.

Trends in the Prevalence of Reduced GFR in the United States: A Comparison of Creatinine- and Cystatin C-Based Estimates

PubMed Central

Grams, Morgan E.; Juraschek, Stephen P.; Selvin, Elizabeth; Foster, Meredith C.; Inker, Lesley A.; Eckfeldt, John H.; Levey, Andrew S.; Coresh, Josef

2013-01-01

Background The US prevalence of reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on serum creatinine increased over the decade ending in 2002. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cystatin C measurements were recently calibrated to the international standard, allowing for an independent test of the trend in prevalence of reduced eGFR using cystatin C. Study Design Cross-sectional surveys performed during two periods. Setting & Participants Nationally representative subsamples of adult participants from NHANES III (1988–1994) and the NHANES 1999–2002 surveys. Predictor Survey period. Outcomes Prevalence of reduced GFR, defined as eGFR<60ml/min/1.73m2 based on serum creatinine, cystatin C, or both (eGFRcr, eGFRcys, eGFRcr-cys), using estimating equations developed by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKDEPI). Measurements Serum cystatin C, measured from stored samples in 2006, calibrated to the international standard in 2012. Results Between 1988–1994 and 1999–2002, the prevalence of reduced eGFRcr, eGFRcys and eGFRcr-cys increased from 4.7% (95% CI, 4.1%–5.3%) to 6.5% (95% CI, 5.9%–7.1%; p<0.001), from 5.5% (95% CI, 4.6%–6.5%) to 8.7% (95% CI, 7.5%–10.0%; p<0.001), and from 4.4% (95% CI, 3.7%–5.2%) to 7.1% (95% CI, 6.2%–8.0%; p<0.001), respectively. The higher prevalence of reduced GFR in the later period was observed in all subgroups of age, race, sex, and GFR categories. After adjusting for changes in the US population by age, sex, race, diabetes, hypertension, and body mass index, the prevalence ratio of reduced GFR in the later versus earlier survey was 1.24 (95% CI, 1.09–1.45), 1.34 (95% CI, 1.15–1.67), and 1.33 (95% CI, 1.17–1.65) using eGFRcr, eGFRcys, and eGFRcr-cys, respectively. Limitations Likely under-ascertainment of persons with GFR<15 ml/min/1.73m2; GFR was estimated and not measured; comparability of laboratory assays based on a calibration subsample. Conclusions The

Evaluating detection and estimation capabilities of magnetometer-based vehicle sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, David M.; Jacyna, Garry M.

2013-05-01

In an effort to secure the northern and southern United States borders, MITRE has been tasked with developing Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools that accurately capture the mapping between algorithm-level Measures of Performance (MOP) and system-level Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) for current/future surveillance systems deployed by the the Customs and Border Protection Office of Technology Innovations and Acquisitions (OTIA). This analysis is part of a larger M&S undertaking. The focus is on two MOPs for magnetometer-based Unattended Ground Sensors (UGS). UGS are placed near roads to detect passing vehicles and estimate properties of the vehicle's trajectory such as bearing and speed. The first MOP considered is the probability of detection. We derive probabilities of detection for a network of sensors over an arbitrary number of observation periods and explore how the probability of detection changes when multiple sensors are employed. The performance of UGS is also evaluated based on the level of variance in the estimation of trajectory parameters. We derive the Cramer-Rao bounds for the variances of the estimated parameters in two cases: when no a priori information is known and when the parameters are assumed to be Gaussian with known variances. Sample results show that UGS perform significantly better in the latter case.

Kalman Filters for Time Delay of Arrival-Based Source Localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klee, Ulrich; Gehrig, Tobias; McDonough, John

2006-12-01

In this work, we propose an algorithm for acoustic source localization based on time delay of arrival (TDOA) estimation. In earlier work by other authors, an initial closed-form approximation was first used to estimate the true position of the speaker followed by a Kalman filtering stage to smooth the time series of estimates. In the proposed algorithm, this closed-form approximation is eliminated by employing a Kalman filter to directly update the speaker's position estimate based on the observed TDOAs. In particular, the TDOAs comprise the observation associated with an extended Kalman filter whose state corresponds to the speaker's position. We tested our algorithm on a data set consisting of seminars held by actual speakers. Our experiments revealed that the proposed algorithm provides source localization accuracy superior to the standard spherical and linear intersection techniques. Moreover, the proposed algorithm, although relying on an iterative optimization scheme, proved efficient enough for real-time operation.

Estimates of emergency operating capacity in U.S. manufacturing industries: 1994--2005

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Belzer, D.B.

1997-02-01

To develop integrated policies for mobilization preparedness, planners require estimates and projections of available productive capacity during national emergency conditions. This report develops projections of national emergency operating capacity (EOC) for 458 US manufacturing industries at the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level. These measures are intended for use in planning models that are designed to predict the demands for detailed industry sectors that would occur under conditions such as a military mobilization or a major national disaster. This report is part of an ongoing series of studies prepared by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to support mobilization planning studiesmore » of the Federal Emergency Planning Agency/US Department of Defense (FEMA/DOD). Earlier sets of EOC estimates were developed in 1985 and 1991. This study presents estimates of EOC through 2005. As in the 1991 study, projections of capacity were based upon extrapolations of equipment capital stocks. The methodology uses time series regression models based on industry data to obtain a response function of industry capital stock to levels of industrial output. The distributed lag coefficients of these response function are then used with projected outputs to extrapolate the 1994 level of EOC. Projections of industrial outputs were taken from the intermediate-term forecast of the US economy prepared by INFORUM (Interindustry Forecasting Model, University of Maryland) in the spring of 1996.« less

Probability based remaining capacity estimation using data-driven and neural network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yujie; Yang, Duo; Zhang, Xu; Chen, Zonghai

2016-05-01

Since large numbers of lithium-ion batteries are composed in pack and the batteries are complex electrochemical devices, their monitoring and safety concerns are key issues for the applications of battery technology. An accurate estimation of battery remaining capacity is crucial for optimization of the vehicle control, preventing battery from over-charging and over-discharging and ensuring the safety during its service life. The remaining capacity estimation of a battery includes the estimation of state-of-charge (SOC) and state-of-energy (SOE). In this work, a probability based adaptive estimator is presented to obtain accurate and reliable estimation results for both SOC and SOE. For the SOC estimation, an n ordered RC equivalent circuit model is employed by combining an electrochemical model to obtain more accurate voltage prediction results. For the SOE estimation, a sliding window neural network model is proposed to investigate the relationship between the terminal voltage and the model inputs. To verify the accuracy and robustness of the proposed model and estimation algorithm, experiments under different dynamic operation current profiles are performed on the commercial 1665130-type lithium-ion batteries. The results illustrate that accurate and robust estimation can be obtained by the proposed method.

Estimating equations estimates of trends

USGS Publications Warehouse