South Asian climate change at the end of urban Harappan (Indus valley) civilization and mechanisms of Holocene monsoon variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staubwasser, M.; Sirocko, F.; Erlenkeuser, H.; Grootes, P. M.; Segl, M.

2003-04-01

Planktonic oxygen isotope ratios from the well-dated laminated sediment core 63KA off the river Indus delta are presented. The record reveals significant climate changes in the south Asian monsoon system throughout the Holocene. The most prominent event of the early-mid Holocene occurred after 8.4 ka BP and is within dating error of the GISP/GRIP event centered at 8.2 ka BP. The late Holocene is generally more variable and the largest change of the entire Holocene occurred at 4.2 ka BP. This event is concordant with the end of urban Harappan civilization in the Indus valley. Opposing isotopic trends across the northern Arabian Sea surface indicate a reduction in Indus river discharge at that time. Consequently, sustained drought may have initiated the archaeologically recorded interval of southeastward habitat tracking within the Harappan cultural domain. The hemispheric significance of the 4.2 ka BP event is evident from concordant climate change in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. The remainder of the late Holocene shows drought cycles of approximately 700 years that are coherent with the evolution of cosmogenic radiocarbon production rates in the atmosphere. This suggests that solar variability is one fundamental cause behind late Holocene rainfall changes over south Asia.

Drought Risk Identification: Early Warning System of Seasonal Agrometeorological Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.

2014-05-01

By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal

Plant macrofossil evidence for an early onset of the Holocene summer thermal maximum in northernmost Europe

PubMed Central

Väliranta, M.; Salonen, J. S.; Heikkilä, M.; Amon, L.; Helmens, K.; Klimaschewski, A.; Kuhry, P.; Kultti, S.; Poska, A.; Shala, S.; Veski, S.; Birks, H. H.

2015-01-01

Holocene summer temperature reconstructions from northern Europe based on sedimentary pollen records suggest an onset of peak summer warmth around 9,000 years ago. However, pollen-based temperature reconstructions are largely driven by changes in the proportions of tree taxa, and thus the early-Holocene warming signal may be delayed due to the geographical disequilibrium between climate and tree populations. Here we show that quantitative summer-temperature estimates in northern Europe based on macrofossils of aquatic plants are in many cases ca. 2 °C warmer in the early Holocene (11,700–7,500 years ago) than reconstructions based on pollen data. When the lag in potential tree establishment becomes imperceptible in the mid-Holocene (7,500 years ago), the reconstructed temperatures converge at all study sites. We demonstrate that aquatic plant macrofossil records can provide additional and informative insights into early-Holocene temperature evolution in northernmost Europe and suggest further validation of early post-glacial climate development based on multi-proxy data syntheses. PMID:25858780

Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington

2014-05-01

Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to

Global Drought Services: Collaborations Toward an Information System for Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.

2014-12-01

Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early

Developing Drought Outlook Forums in Support of a Regional Drought Early Warning Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mcnutt, C. A.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Darby, L. S.; Verdin, J. P.; Webb, R. S.

2011-12-01

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-430) charged NIDIS with developing the leadership and partnerships necessary to implement an integrated national drought monitoring and forecasting system that creates a drought "early warning system". The drought early warning information system should be capable of providing accurate, timely and integrated information on drought conditions at the relevant spatial scale to facilitate proactive decisions aimed at minimizing the economic, social and ecosystem losses associated with drought. As part of this effort, NIDIS has held Regional Drought Outlook Forums in several regions of the U.S. The purpose of the Forums is to inform practices that reduce vulnerability to drought through an interactive and collaborative process that includes the users of the information. The Forums have focused on providing detailed assessments of present conditions and impacts, comparisons with past drought events, and seasonal predictions including discussion of the state and expected evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) that include close interaction between information providers and users are not a new concept, however. RCOFs started in Africa in the 1990s in response to the 1997-98 El Niño and have since expanded to South America, Asia, the Pacific islands, and the Caribbean. As a result of feedback from the RCOFs a large body of research has gone into improving seasonal forecasts and the capacity of the users to apply the information in a way that improves their decision-making. Over time, it has become clear that more is involved than just improving the interaction between the climate forecasters and decision-makers. NIDIS is using the RCOF approach as one component in a larger effort to develop Regional Drought Early Warning Information Systems (RDEWS) around the U.S. Using what has been learned over the past decade in the RCOF process

Patterns and drivers of Early Holocene vegetation dynamics in Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theuerkauf, Martin

2015-04-01

The rapid warming of the Holocene induced the rearrangement of vegetation across Europe, including the widely synchronous and rapid expansion of hazel (Corylus avellana) at around 10.6 ka BP (Giesecke et al., 2011). The simultaneity of the hazel expansion across large parts of Europe suggests that a climate shift has triggered that expansion. However, it remains poorly understood, which climate parameter has been effective (Huntley, 1993) because hazel expanded simultaneously in areas that today clearly differ in climate. To better understand the causes we studied Early Holocene vegetation dynamics in NE Germany in high temporal and spatial resolution. Analysis combines pollen data from 60 sites, including high resolution data sets, with present-day site patterns of soil and relief using the extended downscaling approach. Using forward modeling of pollen deposition in each sample site the method seeks that vegetation composition on each site type that produces modeled pollen deposition most similar to empiric pollen deposition. The results (Theuerkauf et al., 2014) indicate that first populations of hazel established soon after the Holocene warming at 11.2 ka. These populations were still small and possibly restricted to warm loving slopes, indicating that low summer warmth was the limiting factor. The widespread expansion of hazel started only after 10.8 ka, possibly following a shift to greater summer warmth. Hazel primarily expanded on sites that are today covered by gleyic soils, from which it largely expelled tree birch. Hazel thus obviously could only expand on sites that received additional wetness from ground- and stagnant water. Giesecke T., Bennett K.D., Birks H.J.B., Bjune A.E., Bozilova E., Feurdean A., Finsinger W., Froyd C., Pokorný P., Rösch M., Seppä H., Tonkov S., Valsecchi V., & Wolters S. (2011) The pace of Holocene vegetation change - testing for synchronous developments. Quaternary Science Reviews, 30, 2805-2814. Huntley B. (1993) Rapid

High resolution windows into early Holocene climate: Sr/(Ca) coral records from the Huon Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCulloch, Malcolm; Mortimer, Graham; Esat, Tezer; Xianhua, Li; Pillans, Brad; Chappell, John

1996-02-01

High-precision measurements of Sr/Ca ratios are reported for Porites corals from the uplifted Holocene coral terraces at Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea. The early Holocene Porites have UTh mass spectrometric ages of 8920 ± 60 yr and 7370 ± 50 yr, and δ 234U(t) values of 145 ± 2, similar to modern seawater. The Sr/Ca coral records provide 5-6 year high resolution (near weekly) time windows into early Holocene sea surface temperatures. Seasonal temperature fluctuations are generally in the range of ± 1°C, with occasional excursions of ± 2°C, which may indicate the more frequent recurrence of very strong ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) events. Mean annual Sr/Ca temperatures of 24.2 ± 1.1°C and 22.9 ± 0.8°C have been obtained, which are ˜ 2-3°C cooler than that exhibited by a modern Porites. These results indicate that, during the early Holocene, the equatorial western Pacific ocean was at least several degrees cooler than present-day temperatures. This is consistent with late glacial coral records from the Caribbean that indicate lower (˜ 6°C) sea surface temperatures for the equatorial oceans. The Huon Peninsula corals also indicate that SSTs were several degrees cooler than those in the Caribbean during the early Holocene. Thus, although the northern hemisphere summer radiation maximum occurred at ˜ 10 ka, there appears to have been a significant lag in the response of the equatorial western Pacific ocean to this warming. Cooler early Holocene sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific may have been due to changing patterns of ocean-atmosphere circulation, resulting from the exposure of large areas of continental shelf in the southeast Asia region, a consequence of lower glacial sea levels. It is likely that ocean temperatures in the Huon Peninsula were influenced by the opening at ˜ 7 ka of the Torres Strait, that now separates New Guinea from the Australian mainland.

Early and middle holocene hunter-gatherer occupations in western Amazonia: the hidden shell middens.

PubMed

Lombardo, Umberto; Szabo, Katherine; Capriles, José M; May, Jan-Hendrik; Amelung, Wulf; Hutterer, Rainer; Lehndorff, Eva; Plotzki, Anna; Veit, Heinz

2013-01-01

We report on previously unknown early archaeological sites in the Bolivian lowlands, demonstrating for the first time early and middle Holocene human presence in western Amazonia. Multidisciplinary research in forest islands situated in seasonally-inundated savannahs has revealed stratified shell middens produced by human foragers as early as 10,000 years ago, making them the oldest archaeological sites in the region. The absence of stone resources and partial burial by recent alluvial sediments has meant that these kinds of deposits have, until now, remained unidentified. We conducted core sampling, archaeological excavations and an interdisciplinary study of the stratigraphy and recovered materials from three shell midden mounds. Based on multiple lines of evidence, including radiocarbon dating, sedimentary proxies (elements, steroids and black carbon), micromorphology and faunal analysis, we demonstrate the anthropogenic origin and antiquity of these sites. In a tropical and geomorphologically active landscape often considered challenging both for early human occupation and for the preservation of hunter-gatherer sites, the newly discovered shell middens provide evidence for early to middle Holocene occupation and illustrate the potential for identifying and interpreting early open-air archaeological sites in western Amazonia. The existence of early hunter-gatherer sites in the Bolivian lowlands sheds new light on the region's past and offers a new context within which the late Holocene "Earthmovers" of the Llanos de Moxos could have emerged.

Mechanisms Underlying Early Medieval Droughts in Mesoamerica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, T.; Chiang, J. C. H.

2015-12-01

Multidecadal drought during the early Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 800-1200 CE) in Mesoamerica has been implicated in the demise of many pre-Columbian societies, including the Maya. The mechanisms behind these droughts, however, are poorly understood. Researchers most often interpret these records as tracking the mean position of the ITCZ, with a southward shifted ITCZ resulting in Mesoamerican drought. This is puzzling, however, because our dynamical understanding of the ITCZ and its role in interhemispheric heat transport would suggest a more northward shifted ITCZ during the MCA. Here, we evaluate two hypotheses to reconcile existing proxies and dynamics. First, we assess whether evidence for dry conditions during the MCA is robust across multiple Mesoamerican proxy records, focusing on the influence of radiometric dating uncertainty on estimates of drought timing. Second, we use control simulations of CCSM4 and HadCM3, as well as a broader synthesis of oceanic and terrestrial proxies, to explore the mechanisms responsible for long-term drought in Mesoamerica. Ultimately, we suggest that a temporary slowdown of the AMOC, either internally or externally forced, combined with local and regional land surface feedbacks can explain these droughts in Mesoamerica.

The late Holocene dry period: multiproxy evidence for an extended drought between 2800 and 1850 cal yr BP across the central Great Basin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mensing, Scott A.; Sharpe, Saxon E.; Tunno, Irene; Sada, Don W.; Thomas, Jim M.; Starratt, Scott W.; Smith, Jeremy

2013-01-01

Evidence of a multi-centennial scale dry period between ∼2800 and 1850 cal yr BP is documented by pollen, mollusks, diatoms, and sediment in spring sediments from Stonehouse Meadow in Spring Valley, eastern central Nevada, U.S. We refer to this period as the Late Holocene Dry Period. Based on sediment recovered, Stonehouse Meadow was either absent or severely restricted in size at ∼8000 cal yr BP. Beginning ∼7500 cal yr BP, the meadow became established and persisted to ∼3000 cal yr BP when it began to dry. Comparison of the timing of this late Holocene drought record to multiple records extending from the eastern Sierra Nevada across the central Great Basin to the Great Salt Lake support the interpretation that this dry period was regional. The beginning and ending dates vary among sites, but all sites record multiple centuries of dry climate between 2500 and 1900 cal yr BP. This duration makes it the longest persistent dry period within the late Holocene. In contrast, sites in the northern Great Basin record either no clear evidence of drought, or have wetter than average climate during this period, suggesting that the northern boundary between wet and dry climates may have been between about 40° and 42° N latitude. This dry in the southwest and wet in the northwest precipitation pattern across the Great Basin is supported by large-scale spatial climate pattern hypotheses involving ENSO, PDO, AMO, and the position of the Aleutian Low and North Pacific High, particularly during winter.

Early Holocene pecan, Carya illinoensis, in the Mississippi River Valley near Muscatine, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bettis, E. Arthur; Baker, R.G.; Nations, B.K.; Benn, D.W.

1990-01-01

A fossil pecan, Carya illinoensis (Wang.) K. Koch, from floodplain sediments of the Mississippi River near Muscatine, Iowa, was accelerator-dated at 7280 ?? 120 yr B.P. This discovery indicates that pecan was at or near its present northern limit by that time. Carya pollen profiles from the Mississippi River Trench indicate that hickory pollen percentages were much higher in the valley than at upland locations during the early Holocene. Pecan, the hickory with the most restricted riparian habitat, is the likely candidate for producing these peaks in Carya pollen percentages. Therefore, pecan may have reached its northern limit as early as 10,300 yr B.P. Its abundance in Early Archaic archaeological sites and the co-occurrence of early Holocene Carya pollen peaks with the arrival of the Dalton artifact complex in the Upper Mississippi Valley suggest that humans may have played a role in the early dispersal of pecan. ?? 1990.

A humid early Holocene in Yemen interpreted from palaeoecology and taxonomy of freshwater ostracods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, Munef; Frenzel, Peter; Keyser, Dietmar; Hussain, Fadhl; Abood, Abdulkareem; Sha'af, Abdulmajed; Alzara'e, Sadham; Alammari, Sakher

2018-01-01

Lake or marsh sediments in the Qa'a Jahran-Dhamār area indicate a period of higher moisture availability in the early Holocene of the highlands of Yemen. Forty-two marl-peat sediment samples from eight stratigraphic sections of that area have been collected and are examined for the first time for their ostracod associations. Eight species belonging to seven genera and four families are reported. Their ecological tolerances and preferences are used to investigate the climatic and environmental changes in the early to mid-Holocene. Our data are compared and correlated with previous archaeological results, particularly from the region of Qa'a Jahran (Dhamār) in the vicinity of the village of Beyt Nahmi. We conclude that the wettest period of the Holocene was from about 7900 to 7400 cal yr BP, when northwards incursion of the Indian Ocean Monsoon caused intensified monsoon precipitation over southern Arabia.

The U.S./Canadian GEO Bilateral Drought Indices and Definitions Study: Implications for the Canadian Drought Monitor and a Global Drought Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadwen, T.; Heim, R. R.; Howard, A.

2011-12-01

provide recommendations for a global drought early warning system, and implications of the Drought Indices and Definitions Study for improving both the Can-DM and a global drought early warning system.

Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2011-12-01

Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have

Early Holocene deglaciation of Drangajökull, Vestfirðir, Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harning, David J.; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford H.; Zalzal, Kate

2016-12-01

The status of Icelandic ice caps during the early Holocene provides important constraints on North Atlantic climate and the mechanisms behind natural climate variability. A recent study postulates that Drangajökull on Vestfirðir, Iceland, persisted through the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM, 7.9-5.5 ka) and may be a relic from the last glacial period. We test this hypothesis with a suite of sediment cores from threshold lakes both proximal and distal to the ice cap's modern margin. Distal lakes document rapid early Holocene deglaciation from the coast and across the highlands south of the glacier. Sediment from Skorarvatn, a lake to the north of Drangajökull, shows that the northern margin of the ice cap reached a size comparable to its contemporary limit by ∼10.3 ka. Two southeastern lakes with catchments extending well beneath modern Drangajökull confirm that by ∼9.2 ka, the ice cap was reduced to ∼20% of its current area. A continuous 10.3ka record of biological productivity from Skorarvatn's sediment indicates local peak warmth occurred between 9 and 6.9 ka. The combination of warm and dry summers on Vestfirðir suggests that Drangajökull very likely melted completely shortly after 9.2 ka, similar to most other Icelandic ice caps.

Faunal reorganisation in terrestrial mammalian communities: evidence from France during the Lateglacial-Early Holocene transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bridault, Anne

2010-05-01

The Lateglacial-Early Holocene transition is characterized by rapid oscillations between warm and cold episodes. Their impact on ecosystem dynamics was particularly pronounced in north-western Europe where hunter-gatherer societies experienced a succession of environmental transformations, including the expansion and dispersal of biotic communities and changing herbivore habitats. Recent archaeozoological studies and AMS direct dating on mammalian bones/or bone collagen allow to map and precise this process at a supra-regional scale (France). At regional scales (i.e. Paris Basin & Jura-Northern French Alps), results indicate a rapid faunal reorganisation at the end of Lateglacial that will be presented in detail. Composition of faunal assemblages remains then unchanged during the Early Holocene. By contrast, significant herbivore habitat changes are recorded during the Early Holocene by other proxies (pollen data and isotopic data) and a decrease in Red Deer size through time is evidenced by osteometrical analyses. Hypotheses regarding the kind of adaptation process experienced by the faunal communities through time will be presented. Factors that may have controlled the observed changes will be discussed.

Early Holocene pecan, Carya illinoensis, in the Mississippi River Valley near Muscatine, Iowa*1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bettis, E. Arthur; Baker, Richard G.; Nations, Brenda K.; Benn, David W.

1990-01-01

A fossil pecan, Carya illinoensis (Wang.) K. Koch, from floodplain sediments of the Mississippi River near Muscatine, Iowa, was accelerator-dated at 7280 ± 120 yr B.P. This discovery indicates that pecan was at or near its present northern limit by that time. Carya pollen profiles from the Mississippi River Trench indicate that hickory pollen percentages were much higher in the valley than at upland locations during the early Holocene. Pecan, the hickory with the most restricted riparian habitat, is the likely candidate for producing these peaks in Carya pollen percentages. Therefore, pecan may have reached its northern limit as early as 10,300 yr B.P. Its abundance in Early Archaic archaeological sites and the co-occurrence of early Holocene Carya pollen peaks with the arrival of the Dalton artifact complex in the Upper Mississippi Valley suggest that humans may have played a role in the early dispersal of pecan.

Climate Change Decouples Drought from Early Wine Grape Harvests in France

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.

2016-01-01

Across the world, wine grape phenology has advanced in recent decades, in step with climate-change-induced trends in temperature - the main driver of fruit maturation - and drought. Fully understanding how climate change contributes to changes in harvest dates, however, requires analysing wine grape phenology and its relationship to climate over a longer-term context, including data predating anthropogenic interference in the climate system. Here, we investigate the climatic controls of wine grape harvest dates from 1600-2007 in France and Switzerland using historical harvest and climate data. Early harvests occur with warmer temperatures (minus 6 days per degree Centigrade) and are delayed by wet conditions (plus 0.07 days per millimeter; plus 1.68 days per PDSI (Palmer drought severity index)) during spring and summer. In recent decades (1981-2007), however, the relationship between harvest timing and drought has broken down. Historically, high summer temperatures in Western Europe, which would hasten fruit maturation, required drought conditions to generate extreme heat. The relationship between drought and temperature in this region, however, has weakened in recent decades and enhanced warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases can generate the high temperatures needed for early harvests without drought. Our results suggest that climate change has fundamentally altered the climatic drivers of early wine grape harvests in France, with possible ramifications for viticulture management and wine quality.

Assessing the add value of ensemble forecast in a drought early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calmanti, Sandro; Bosi, Lorenzo; Fernandez, Jesus; De Felice, Matteo

2015-04-01

The EU-FP7 project EUPORIAS is developing a prototype climate service to enhance the existing food security drought early warning system in Ethiopia. The Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection (LEAP) system is the Government of Ethiopia's national food security early warning system, established with the support of WFP and the World Bank in 2008. LEAP was designed to increase the predictability and timeliness of response to drought-related food crises in Ethiopia. It combines early warning with contingency planning and contingency funding, to allow the government, WFP and other partners to provide early assistance in anticipation of an impending catastrophes. Currently, LEAP uses satellite based rainfall estimates to monitor drought conditions and to compute needs. The main aim of the prototype is to use seasonal hindcast data to assess the added value of using ensemble climate rainfall forecasts to estimate the cost of assistance of population hit by major droughts. We outline the decision making process that is informed by the prototype climate service, and we discuss the analysis of the expected and skill of the available rainfall forecast data over Ethiopia. One critical outcome of this analysis is the strong dependence of the expected skill on the observational estimate assumed as reference. A preliminary evaluation of the full prototype products (drought indices and needs estimated) using hindcasts data will also be presented.

High-resolution proxy record of Holocene climate from a loess section in Southwestern Nebraska, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miao, X.; Mason, J.A.; Johnson, W.C.; Wang, Hongfang

2007-01-01

Plains and La Nin??a-like conditions in the tropical Pacific. The loess color index and eastern tropical Pacific SST display broad similarities through the late Pleistocene and Holocene that are consistent with this teleconnection. On the other hand, drought centered at 3800??years ago is not consistent with the teleconnection, and the end of early Holocene aridity at the Wauneta section, around 6500??years ago, is much earlier than the corresponding rise in SST and increase in El Nin??o frequency in the eastern tropical Pacific. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards the construction of a Drought Early Warning System in México

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neri, C.; Magaña, V. O.

2011-12-01

Droughts in Mexico are related to severe impacts in agricultural and livestock activities, water management and with the occurrence of wildfire. Droughts are recurrent, on time scales from years to decades. The impacts however, depend on the vulnerability. The negative impacts may be reduced by studying and monitoring the dynamical evolution of meteorological drought, and by identifying the factors that result in vulnerability, in the context of risk management. Considering the analysis of the vulnerability in the northern of Mexico, a semiarid region highly vulnerable to drought, a Drought Early Warning System was created based on the use of climate information. The first step was to identify the capacity to provide useful climate information to develop prevention actions. Results confirm that the drought in northern Mexico is a well-diagnosed phenomenon from the point of view of impacts in various sectors. However, the use of climate information is still very limited resulting in response to mitigate drought impacts rather than preparing for drought. Part of the problem is the limited capacity to interpret probabilistic forecasts to define actions. Therefore, a key element in a Drought Early Warning System is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using climate diagnosis and forecast. A preventive response to drought may be defined if the severity and duration surpass a threshold value after which a decision action should be made. In order to establish the relevance of indicators for drought risk management, retroactive analyses have been developed considering the case of northwestern Mexico. After a vulnerability analysis that considers the institutional capacity to make use of climate information, a Drought Early warning System has been designed that considers a number of actions that may be put

Using SMAP data to improve drought early warning over the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, N.; Tang, W.

2015-12-01

A drought prone region such as the Great Plains of the United States (US GP) requires credible and actionable drought early warning. Such information cannot simply be extracted from available climate forecasts because of their large uncertainties at regional scales, and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA North American Multi-Model Ensemble experiment (NMME) are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US GP. To mitigate the weaknesses of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies, as the scientific basis for a statistical drought early warning system. This system uses percentile soil moisture anomalies in spring as a key input to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning. The latter outperforms the dynamic prediction over the US Southern Plains and has been used by the Texas state water agency to support state drought preparedness. A main source of uncertainty for this drought early warning system is the soil moisture input obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecasting System (CFS). We are testing use of the beta version of NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture data, along with the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the long-term Essential Climate Variable Soil Moisture (ECV-SM) soil moisture data, to reduce this uncertainty. Preliminary results based on ECV-SM suggests satellite based soil moisture data could improve early warning of rainfall anomalies over the western US GP with less dense vegetation. The skill degrades over the eastern US GP where denser vegetation is found. We evaluate our SMAP-based drought early warning for 2015 summer against observations.

Vulnerability analysis for a drought Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angeluccetti, Irene; Demarchi, Alessandro; Perez, Francesca

2014-05-01

Early Warning Systems (EWS) for drought are often based on risk models that do not, or marginally, take into account the vulnerability factor. The multifaceted nature of drought (hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural) is source of coexistence for different ways to measure this phenomenon and its effects. The latter, together with the complexity of impacts generated by this hazard, causes the current underdevelopment of drought EWS compared to other hazards. In Least Developed Countries, where drought events causes the highest numbers of affected people, the importance of correct monitoring and forecasting is considered essential. Existing early warning and monitoring systems for drought produced at different geographic levels, provide only in a few cases an actual spatial model that tries to describe the cause-effect link between where the hazard is detected and where impacts occur. Integrate vulnerability information in such systems would permit to better estimate affected zones and livelihoods, improving the effectiveness of produced hazard-related datasets and maps. In fact, the need of simplification and, in general, of a direct applicability of scientific outputs is still a matter of concern for field experts and early warning products end-users. Even if the surplus of hazard related information produced right after catastrophic events has, in some cases, led to the creation of specific data-sharing platforms, the conveyed meaning and usefulness of each product has not yet been addressed. The present work is an attempt to fill this gap which is still an open issue for the scientific community as well as for the humanitarian aid world. The study aims at conceiving a simplified vulnerability model to embed into an existing EWS for drought, which is based on the monitoring of vegetation phenological parameters and the Standardized Precipitation Index, both produced using free satellite derived datasets. The proposed vulnerability model includes (i) a

Flooding During Drought: Learning from Stakeholder Engagement & Partner Coordination in the California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System (DEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, A. M.

2017-12-01

After more than 5 years of drought, extreme precipitation brought drought relief in California and Nevada and presents an opportunity to reflect upon lessons learned while planning for the future. NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) in June 2017 convened a regional coordination workshop to provide a forum to discuss and build upon past drought efforts in the region and increase coordination, collaboration and information sharing across the region as a whole. Participants included federal, tribal, state, academic, and local partners who provided a post-mortem on the recent drought and impacts as well as recent innovations in drought monitoring, forecasts, and decision support tools in response to the historic drought. This presentation will highlight lessons learned from stakeholder outreach and engagement around flooding during drought, and pathways for moving forward coordination and collaboration in the region. Additional focus will be on the potential opportunities from examining California decision making calendars from this drought. Identified gaps and challenges will also be shared, such as the need to connect observations with social impacts, capacity building around available tools and resources, and future drought monitoring needs. Drought will continue to impact California and Nevada, and the CA-NV DEWS works to make climate and drought science readily available, easily understandable and usable for decision makers; and to improve the capacity of stakeholders to better monitor, forecast, plan for and cope with the impacts of drought.

The variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation throughout the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wassenburg, Jasper; Dietrich, Stephan; Fietzke, Jan; Fohlmeister, Jens; Wei, Wei; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Scholz, Denis; Richter, Detlev; Sabaoui, Abdellah; Lohmann, Gerrit; Andreae, Meinrat; Immenhauser, Adrian

2013-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a major impact on Northern Hemisphere winter climate. Trouet et al. (2009) reconstructed the NAO for the last millennium based on a Moroccan tree ring PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index) reconstruction and a Scottish speleothem record. More recently, Olsen et al. (2012) extended the NAO record back to 5.2 ka BP based on a lake record from West Greenland. It is, however, well known that the NAO exhibits non-stationary behavior and the use of a single location for a NAO reconstruction may not capture the complete variability. In addition, the imprint of the NAO on European rainfall patterns in the Early and Mid Holocene on (multi-) centennial timescales is still largely unknown. This is related to difficulties in establishing robust correlations between different proxy records and the fact that proxies may not only reflect winter conditions (i.e., the season when the NAO has the largest influence). Here we present a precisely dated, high resolution speleothem δ18O record from NW Morocco covering the complete Early and Mid Holocene. Carbon and oxygen isotopes were measured at a resolution of 15 years. A multi-proxy approach provides solid evidence that speleothem δ18O values reflect changes in past rainfall intensity. The Moroccan record shows a significant correlation with a speleothem rainfall record from western Germany, which covers the entire Holocene (Fohlmeister et al., 2012). The combination with the extended speleothem record from Scotland, speleothem records from north Italy and the NAO reconstruction from West Greenland (Olsen et al., 2012) allows us to study the variability of the NAO during the entire Holocene. The relation between West German and Northwest Moroccan rainfall has not been stationary, which is evident from the changing signs of correlation. The Early Holocene is characterized by a positive correlation, which changes between 9 and 8 ka BP into a negative correlation. Simulations with the state

Penetration of Atlantic Walker Circulation Into East Africa During Early to mid-Holocene: Hydrogen Isotope Evidence From Sacred Lake, Mt. Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, J.; Russell, J. M.; Huang, Y.

2007-12-01

The tropics play a very important role in global climate variability, yet the mechanisms behind the tropical climate variation remain poorly understood. Here, we present a high-resolution, well-dated record from Sacred Lake, Kenya, East Africa. We measured D/H ratios of botryococcenes, a class of highly specific biomarkers produced by freshwater algae ( Botrycoccus braunii) in a sediment core obtained from this open lake. Our main goal is to examine changes in East African rainfall amount and moisture source during the past 18kyr BP. During the late Pleistocene and late Holocene, the hydrogen isotope records track local hydrological variations inferred from numerous lake level and pollen records from the region. However, during the early to mid-Holocene (10-5ka cal yr BP), the D/H values from Sacred Lake were as much as 90 per mil heavier than during the late Pleistocene and late Holocene. If the "amount effect" is the main control on the isotopic compositions of rainfall during the early to mid Holocene, Our data would suggest drier conditions, which is inconsistent with the "African Humid Period" inferred by numerous records of the mid-Holocene. We propose that the high isotopic ratios in precipitation in East Africa during the early to mid-Holocene is due to an eastward shift in the large-scale atmospheric circulation of the tropics. In East Africa, this shift involves a major increase in moisture source from the Atlantic Ocean relative to Indian Ocean. Heavier isotope ratios of precipitation originated from Atlantic Ocean result from the intensive convection and recycling of water vapor over the Congo Basin, as opposed to Indian moisture that traverses dry land masses and losses moisture rapidly. In comparison to the late Holocene, the early to mid-Holocene is characterized by relatively northerly positioning of the ITCZ and intense monsoon systems as well as weak ENSO. These factors combine to shift the walker circulation eastward, allowing the Atlantic

Seasonal Water Balance Forecasts for Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark

2016-04-01

Droughts severely impact Ethiopian agricultural production. Successful early warning for drought conditions in the upcoming harvest season therefore contributes to better managing food shortages arising from adverse climatic conditions. So far, however, meteorological seasonal forecasts have not been used in Ethiopia's national food security early warning system (i.e. the LEAP platform). Here we analyse the forecast quality of seasonal forecasts of total rainfall and of the meteorological water balance as a proxy for plant available water. We analyse forecast skill of June to September rainfall and water balance from dynamical seasonal forecast systems, the ECMWF System4 and EC-EARTH global forecasting systems. Rainfall forecasts outperform forecasts assuming a stationary climate mainly in north-eastern Ethiopia - an area that is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Forecasts of the water balance index seem to be even more skilful and thus more useful than pure rainfall forecasts. The results vary though for different lead times and skill measures employed. We further explore the potential added value of dynamically downscaling the forecasts through several dynamical regional climate models made available through the EU FP7 project EUPORIAS. Preliminary results suggest that dynamically downscaled seasonal forecasts are not significantly better compared with seasonal forecasts from the global models. We conclude that seasonal forecasts of a simple climate index such as the water balance have the potential to benefit drought early warning in Ethiopia, both due to its positive predictive skill and higher usefulness than seasonal mean quantities.

Early-Holocene greening of the Afro-Asian dust belt changed sources of mineral dust in West Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharifi, Arash; Murphy, Lisa N.; Pourmand, Ali; Clement, Amy C.; Canuel, Elizabeth A.; Naderi Beni, Abdolmajid; Lahijani, Hamid A. K.; Delanghe, Doriane; Ahmady-Birgani, Hesam

2018-01-01

Production, transport and deposition of mineral dust have significant impacts on different components of the Earth systems through time and space. In modern times, dust plumes are associated with their source region(s) using satellite and land-based measurements and trajectory analysis of air masses through time. Reconstruction of past changes in the sources of mineral dust as related to changes in climate, however, must rely on the knowledge of the geochemical and mineralogical composition of modern and paleo-dust, and that of their potential source origins. In this contribution, we present a 13,000-yr record of variations in radiogenic Sr-Nd-Hf isotopes and Rare Earth Element (REE) anomalies as well as dust grain size from an ombrotrophic (rain fed) peat core in NW Iran as proxies of past changes in the sources of dust over the interior of West Asia. Our data shows that although the grain size of dust varies in a narrow range through the entire record, the geochemical fingerprint of dust particles deposited during the low-flux, early Holocene period (11,700-6,000 yr BP) is distinctly different from aerosols deposited during high dust flux periods of the Younger Dryas and the mid-late Holocene (6,000-present). Our findings indicate that the composition of mineral dust deposited at the study site changed as a function of prevailing atmospheric circulation regimes and land exposure throughout the last deglacial period and the Holocene. Simulations of atmospheric circulation over the region show the Northern Hemisphere Summer Westerly Jet was displaced poleward across the study area during the early Holocene when Northern Hemisphere insolation was higher due to the Earth's orbital configuration. This shift, coupled with lower dust emissions simulated based on greening of the Afro-Asian Dust Belt during the early Holocene likely led to potential sources in Central Asia dominating dust export to West Asia during this period. In contrast, the dominant western and

Early Holocene turnover, followed by stability, in a Caribbean lizard assemblage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kemp, Melissa E.; Hadly, Elizabeth A.

2016-03-01

Understanding how communities are impacted by environmental perturbations is integral for addressing the ongoing biodiversity crisis that impacts ecosystems worldwide. The fossil record serves as a window into ancient interactions and the responses of communities to past perturbations. Here, we re-examine paleontological data from Katouche Bay, Anguilla, a Holocene site in the Lesser Antilles. We reveal that the site was more diverse than previously indicated, with long-term, continuous records of three genera of extant lizards (Anolis, Ameiva, and Thecadactylus), and the early Holocene presence of Leiocephalus, a large ground-dwelling lizard that has since been completely extirpated from the Lesser Antilles. The disappearance of Leiocephalus from Katouche Bay resulted in high turnover, decreased evenness, and decreased species richness-a trend that continues to the present day. Our body size reconstructions for the most abundant genus, Anolis, are consistent with the presence of only one species, Anolis cf. gingivinus, at Katouche Bay throughout the Holocene, contrary to previously published studies. Additionally, we find no evidence of dwarfism in A. cf. gingivinus, which contrasts with a global study of contemporary insular lizards. Our data reveal that the impacts of diversity loss on lizard communities are long lasting and irreversible over millennia.

Development of Water Resources Drought Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, B. P. T.; Chen, C. H.

2017-12-01

Signs of impending drought are often vague and result from hydrologic uncertainty. Because of this, determining the appropriate time to enforce water supply restrictions is difficult. This study proposes a drought early warning index (DEWI) that can help water resource managers to anticipate droughts so that preparations can be made to mitigate the impact of water shortages. This study employs the expected-deficit-rate of normal water supply conditions as the drought early warning index. An annual-use-reservoir-based water supply system in southern Taiwan was selected as the case study. The water supply simulation was based on reservoir storage at the evaluation time and the reservoir inflow series to cope with the actual water supply process until the end of the hydrologic year. A variety of deficits could be realized during different hydrologic years of records and assumptions of initial reservoir storage. These deficits are illustrated using the Average Shortage Rate (ASR) and the value of the ASR, namely the DEWI. The ASR is divided into 5 levels according to 5 deficit-tolerance combinations of each kind of annual demand. A linear regression model and a Neuro-Fuzzy Computing Technique model were employed to estimate the DEWI using selected factors deduced from supply-demand traits and available information, including: rainfall, reservoir inflow and storage data. The chosen methods mentioned above are used to explain a significant index is useful for both model development and decision making. Tests in the Tsengwen-Wushantou reservoir system showed this DEWI to perform very well in adopting the proper mitigation policy at the end of the wet season.

Reconstruction of early Holocene paleoclimate and environment in the SW Kola region, Russian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grekov, Ivan; Kolka, Vasiliy; Syrykh, Liudmila; Nazarova, Larisa

2016-04-01

In the current period of the global climate change it becomes necessary to have a clear understanding of not only the changes taking place in the components of the natural environment, but also to understand development of all interactions between those components. Quaternary terrigenic sediments and lakes of the Kola Peninsula store information about the development of the region in the Late Glacial and Holocene: movements of the glacier, neotectonic activity, post-glacial rebound, formation and development of natural environments after deglaciation. Multi-proxy study of landscapes evolution of the Kola Peninsula in the Late Quaternary will help to establish a detailed reconstruction of climatic and environmental changes of this poor studied sector of the Arctic. Quaternary history on the Kola Peninsula is represented mainly by Late Pleistocene and Holocene sediments covering the Baltic Shield (Lavrova, 1960; Evzerov, 2015). Several palaeolimnological investigations in the Baltic Shield area have been performed earlier (Donner et al., 1977; Anundsen, 1985; Berglund, 2004). Studies of the southern coast of the Kola Peninsula have shown that marine transgression took place in the Late Pleistocene that was then replaced by a regression with variable speed. The slowdown of the uplift of the area took place between 8800 - 6800 BP (cal. years) and corresponded to the time of the Tapes transgression of the Arctic Ocean (Evzerov et al. 2010; Kolka, et al., 2013). Palaeoclimatic studies based on micro-paleontological analyzes indicate uneven development of the Kola Peninsula landscapes in the Late Glacial and Early Holocene. The northern coast of the Peninsula became free of ice first. In this area tundra-steppe vegetation was established for a short time and was later replaced by tundra (Snyder et al, 2000). Southern part of the Kola Peninsula was dependent on the conditions of deglaciation of the White Sea basin and cleared of ice much later (Evzerov et al., 2010; Kolka

Duration and severity of Medieval drought in the Lake Tahoe Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kleppe, J.A.; Brothers, D.S.; Kent, G.M.; Biondi, F.; Jensen, S.; Driscoll, N.W.

2011-01-01

Droughts in the western U.S. in the past 200 years are small compared to several megadroughts that occurred during Medieval times. We reconstruct duration and magnitude of extreme droughts in the northern Sierra Nevada from hydroclimatic conditions in Fallen Leaf Lake, California. Stands of submerged trees rooted in situ below the lake surface were imaged with sidescan sonar and radiocarbon analysis yields an age estimate of ∼1250 AD. Tree-ring records and submerged paleoshoreline geomorphology suggest a Medieval low-stand of Fallen Leaf Lake lasted more than 220 years. Over eighty more trees were found lying on the lake floor at various elevations above the paleoshoreline. Water-balance calculations suggest annual precipitation was less than 60% normal from late 10th century to early 13th century AD. Hence, the lake’s shoreline dropped 40–60 m below its modern elevation. Stands of pre-Medieval trees in this lake and in Lake Tahoe suggest the region experienced severe drought at least every 650–1150 years during the mid- and late-Holocene. These observations quantify paleo-precipitation and recurrence of prolonged drought in the northern Sierra Nevada.

Not Just the 8.2 event: Dynamic Early Holocene Climate in Arctic Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Y.; Briner, J. P.; Miller, G. H.; Francis, D. R.

2006-12-01

Temperature reconstructions from a lake in the eastern Canadian Arctic indicate that peak warmth in the early Holocene was interrupted by two abrupt, short-lived temperature reversals at ~9.l and ~8.5 ka. Summer temperatures at Lake CF8, Baffin Island (~500 km west of Greenland) are inferred from subfossil midge (Chironomidae) assemblages. Our results indicate that the site, like others on Baffin Island, experienced exceptionally warm summers (almost 5°C warmer than present) through much of the early Holocene, presumably in response to enhanced summer insolation. After 1000 years of very warm, stable climate, warmth was interrupted by two discrete cold reversals at ~9.1 and ~8.5 ka, during which multiple cold-stenothermous midge taxa appeared in the lake and summer temperatures dropped more than 3°C. These two clearly-defined reversals, well beyond the range of background variability, were of similar amplitude and duration, and were separated by several centuries of near-peak warmth. The only Holocene events of comparable amplitude at this site are the rapid onset of Holocene warmth, and the more gradual Neoglacial cooling after 8 ka. Abrupt cooling events over the Baffin region are consistent with model simulations of the impacts of freshwater outbursts into the Labrador Sea, such as the Lake Agassiz outburst flood that occurred ~8.4 ka. That there are two discrete events recorded at this site indicates that the "8.2 event" was not uniquely significant in this region; rather, the period between approximately ~9.2 and 8 ka was characterized by repeated climate fluctuations forced by multiple outburst floods or other mechanisms. Thus global correlations among paleoclimate records need not assume that climate perturbations during this time period necessarily correlate with the draining of Lake Agassiz or the 8.2 ka cooling in central Greenland.

Potential economic value of drought information to support early warning in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, S.; Iglesias, A.; Diz, A.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

We present a methodology to estimate the economic value of advanced climate information for food production in Africa under climate change scenarios. The results aim to facilitate better choices in water resources management. The methodology includes 4 sequential steps. First two contrasting management strategies (with and without early warning) are defined. Second, the associated impacts of the management actions are estimated by calculating the effect of drought in crop productivity under climate change scenarios. Third, the optimal management option is calculated as a function of the drought information and risk aversion of potential information users. Finally we use these optimal management simulations to compute the economic value of enhanced water allocation rules to support stable food production in Africa. Our results show how a timely response to climate variations can help reduce loses in food production. The proposed framework is developed within the Dewfora project (Early warning and forecasting systems to predict climate related drought vulnerability and risk in Africa) that aims to improve the knowledge on drought forecasting, warning and mitigation, and advance the understanding of climate related vulnerability to drought and to develop a prototype operational forecasting.

Holocene fire occurrence and alluvial responses at the leading edge of pinyon–juniper migration in the Northern Great Basin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weppner, Kerrie N.; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2013-01-01

Fire and vegetation records at the City of Rocks National Reserve (CIRO), south-central Idaho, display the interaction of changing climate, fire and vegetation along the migrating front of single-leaf pinyon (Pinus monophylla) and Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma). Radiocarbon dating of alluvial charcoal reconstructed local fire occurrence and geomorphic response, and fossil woodrat (Neotoma) middens revealed pinyon and juniper arrivals. Fire peaks occurred ~ 10,700–9500, 7200–6700, 2400–2000, 850–700, and 550–400 cal yr BP, whereas ~ 9500–7200, 6700–4700 and ~ 1500–1000 cal yr BP are fire-free. Wetter climates and denser vegetation fueled episodic fires and debris flows during the early and late Holocene, whereas drier climates and reduced vegetation caused frequent sheetflooding during the mid-Holocene. Increased fires during the wetter and more variable late Holocene suggest variable climate and adequate fuels augment fires at CIRO. Utah juniper and single-leaf pinyon colonized CIRO by 3800 and 2800 cal yr BP, respectively, though pinyon did not expand broadly until ~ 700 cal yr BP. Increased fire-related deposition coincided with regional droughts and pinyon infilling ~ 850–700 and 550–400 cal yr BP. Early and late Holocene vegetation change probably played a major role in accelerated fire activity, which may be sustained into the future due to pinyon–juniper densification and cheatgrass invasion.

Pine nut use in the Early Holocene and beyond: The danger cave archaeobotanical record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rhode, D.; Madsen, D.B.

1998-01-01

Nuts of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) from Early Holocene strata in Danger Cave, Utah, are distinguishable by seed-coat sculpturing from pine nuts of single-needled pinyon (Pinus monophylla), which occur in strata dating <7000 years BP. Owls and other taphonomic agents may deposit pine nuts in archaeological sites, but the morphology of the pine nuts in Danger Cave strongly indicate they were deposited by human foragers who brought small quantities with them for food for at least the last 7500 years. Large-scale transport of pine nuts to Danger Cave from distant hinterlands is unlikely, however. The seamless transition from limber pine to pinyon pine nuts in the Danger Cave record suggests that foragers who had utilized limber pine as a food resource easily switched to using pinyon pine nuts when pinyon pine migrated into the region at the close of the Early Holocene.

Shift in community structure in an early-successional Mediterranean shrubland driven by long-term experimental warming and drought and natural extreme droughts.

PubMed

Liu, Daijun; Estiarte, Marc; Ogaya, Romà; Yang, Xiaohong; Peñuelas, Josep

2017-10-01

Global warming and recurring drought are expected to accelerate water limitation for plant communities in semiarid Mediterranean ecosystems and produce directional shifts in structure and composition that are not easily detected, and supporting evidence is scarce. We conducted a long-term (17 years) nocturnal-warming (+0.6°C) and drought (-40% rainfall) experiments in an early-successional Mediterranean shrubland to study the changes in community structure and composition, contrasting functional groups and dominant species, and the superimposed effects of natural extreme drought. Species richness decreased in both the warming and drought treatments. Responses to the moderate warming were associated with decreases in herb abundance, and responses to the drought were associated with decreases in both herb and shrub abundances. The drought also significantly decreased community diversity and evenness. Changes in abundance differed between herbs (decreases) and shrubs (increases or no changes). Both warming and drought, especially drought, increased the relative species richness and abundance of shrubs, favoring the establishment of shrubs. Both warming and drought produced significant shifts in plant community composition. Experimental warming shifted the community composition from Erica multiflora toward Rosmarinus officinalis, and drought consistently shifted the composition toward Globularia alypum. The responses in biodiversity (e.g., community biodiversity, changes of functional groups and compositional shifts) were also strongly correlated with atmospheric drought (SPEI) in winter-spring and/or summer, indicating sensitivity to water limitation in this early-successional Mediterranean ecosystem, especially to natural extreme droughts. Our results suggest that the shifts in species assembles and community diversity and composition are accelerated by the long-term nocturnal-warming and drought, combined with natural severe droughts, and that the magnitude of the

Holocene eolian activity in the Minot dune field, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muhs, D.R.; Stafford, Thomas W.; Been, J.; Mahan, S.A.; Burdett, J.; Skipp, G.; Rowland, Z.M.

1997-01-01

Stabilized eolian sand is common over much of the Great Plains region of the United States and Canada, including a subhumid area of ??? 1500 km2 near Minot, North Dakota. Eolian landforms consist of sand sheets and northwest-trending parabolic dunes. Dunes and sand sheets in the Minot field are presently stabilized by a cover of prairie grasses or oak woodland. Stratigraphic studies and accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dating of paleosols indicate at least two periods of eolian sand movement in the late Holocene. Pedologic data suggest that all of the dune field has experienced late Holocene dune activity, though not all parts of the dune field may have been active simultaneously. Similar immobile element (Ti, Zr, La, Ce) concentrations support the interpretation that eolian sands are derived from local glaciofluvial and glaciolacustrine sediments. However, glaciolacustrine and glaciofluvial source sediments have high Ca concentrations from carbonate minerals, whereas dune sands are depleted in Ca. Because noneolian-derived soils in the area are calcareous, these data indicate that the Minot dune field may have had extended periods of activity in the Holocene, such that eolian abrasion removed soft carbonate minerals. The southwest-facing parts of some presently stabilized dunes were active during the 1930s drought, but were revegetated during the wetter years of the 1940s. These observations indicate that severe droughts accompanied by high temperatures are the most likely cause of Holocene eolian activity.

Early and mid-Holocene age for the Tempanos moraines, Laguna San Rafael, Patagonian Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Stephan; Glasser, Neil F.; Duller, Geoff A. T.; Jansson, Krister N.

2012-01-01

Data about the nature and timing of Holocene events from the Southern Hemisphere, especially in southern South America, are required to provide insight into the extent and nature of past climate change in a region where land-based records are restricted. Here we present the first use of single grain Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating of a moraine sequence recording glacial advance along the western side of the Patagonian Icefields. Dates from the Tempanos moraines at Laguna San Rafael (LSR) show that the San Rafael Glacier (SRG) advanced to maximum Holocene positions during the period 9.3 to 9.7 ka and at 5.7 ka. Outwash lying beneath the moraine in its northern portion, dated to 7.7 ka, indicates that the glacier front was also advanced at this time. Since these advances span both the regional early Holocene warm-dry phase (11.5 ka to 7.8 ka) and the subsequent cooling and rise in precipitation in the mid-late Holocene (since 6.6 ka) we infer that the advances of the SRG are not simply climate-driven, but that the glacier has also probably responded strongly to non-climatic stimuli such as internal ice dynamics and the transition between calving and non-calving. Many westwards-flowing glaciers in Patagonia were probably calving during much of the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, so we conclude that establishing robust glacial chronologies where climatic and non-climatic factors cannot be distinguished is likely to remain a challenge.

Variability of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation during the Holocene and possible forcing mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Fuzhi; Ma, Chunmei; Zhu, Cheng; Lu, Huayu; Zhang, Xiaojian; Huang, Kangyou; Guo, Tianhong; Li, Kaifeng; Li, Lan; Li, Bing; Zhang, Wenqing

2018-03-01

Projecting how the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall will change with global warming is essential for human sustainability. Reconstructing Holocene climate can provide critical insight into its forcing and future variability. However, quantitative reconstructions of Holocene summer precipitation are lacking for tropical and subtropical China, which is the core region of the EASM influence. Here we present high-resolution annual and summer rainfall reconstructions covering the whole Holocene based on the pollen record at Xinjie site from the lower Yangtze region. Summer rainfall was less seasonal and 30% higher than modern values at 10-6 cal kyr BP and gradually declined thereafter, which broadly followed the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Over the last two millennia, however, the summer rainfall has deviated from the downward trend of summer insolation. We argue that greenhouse gas forcing might have offset summer insolation forcing and contributed to the late Holocene rainfall anomaly, which is supported by the TraCE-21 ka transient simulation. Besides, tropical sea-surface temperatures could modulate summer rainfall by affecting evaporation of seawater. The rainfall pattern concurs with stalagmite and other proxy records from southern China but differs from mid-Holocene rainfall maximum recorded in arid/semiarid northern China. Summer rainfall in northern China was strongly suppressed by high-northern-latitude ice volume forcing during the early Holocene in spite of high summer insolation. In addition, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation might be responsible for droughts of northern China and floods of southern China during the late Holocene. Furthermore, quantitative rainfall reconstructions indicate that the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations underestimate the magnitude of Holocene precipitation changes. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal variability of the Holocene EASM precipitation and potential forcing

Holocene vegetation history from fossil rodent middens near Arequipa, Peru

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmgren, C.A.; Betancourt, J.L.; Rylander, K.A.; Roque, J.; Tovar, O.; Zeballos, H.; Linares, E.; Quade, Jay

2001-01-01

Rodent (Abrocoma, Lagidium, Phyllotis) middens collected from 2350 to 2750 m elevation near Arequipa, Peru (16??S), provide an ???9600-yr vegetation history of the northern Atacama Desert, based on identification of >50 species of plant macrofossils. These midden floras show considerable stability throughout the Holocene, with slightly more mesophytic plant assemblages in the middle Holocene. Unlike the southwestern United States, rodent middens of mid-Holocene age are common. In the Arequipa area, the midden record does not reflect any effects of a mid-Holocene mega drought proposed from the extreme lowstand (100 m below modern levels, >6000 to 3500 yr B.P.) of Lake Titicaca, only 200 km east of Arequipa. This is perhaps not surprising, given other evidence for wetter summers on the Pacific slope of the Andes during the middle Holocene as well as the poor correlation of summer rainfall among modern weather stations in the central AndesAtacama Desert. The apparent difference in paleoclimatic reconstructions suggests that it is premature to relate changes observed during the Holocene to changes in El Nin??o Southern Oscillation modes. ?? 2001 University of Washington.

European Bison as a Refugee Species? Evidence from Isotopic Data on Early Holocene Bison and Other Large Herbivores in Northern Europe

PubMed Central

Bocherens, Hervé; Hofman-Kamińska, Emilia; Drucker, Dorothée G.; Schmölcke, Ulrich; Kowalczyk, Rafał

2015-01-01

According to the refugee species concept, increasing replacement of open steppe by forest cover after the last glacial period and human pressure had together forced European bison (Bison bonasus)—the largest extant terrestrial mammal of Europe—into forests as a refuge habitat. The consequent decreased fitness and population density led to the gradual extinction of the species. Understanding the pre-refugee ecology of the species may help its conservation management and ensure its long time survival. In view of this, we investigated the abundance of stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) in radiocarbon dated skeletal remains of European bison and other large herbivores—aurochs (Bos primigenius), moose (Alces alces), and reindeer (Rangifer tarandus)—from the Early Holocene of northern Europe to reconstruct their dietary habits and pattern of habitat use in conditions of low human influence. Carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions in collagen of the ungulate species in northern central Europe during the Early Holocene showed significant differences in the habitat use and the diet of these herbivores. The values of the δ13C and δ15N isotopes reflected the use of open habitats by bison, with their diet intermediate between that of aurochs (grazer) and of moose (browser). Our results show that, despite the partial overlap in carbon and nitrogen isotopic values of some species, Early Holocene large ungulates avoided competition by selection of different habitats or different food sources within similar environments. Although Early Holocene bison and Late Pleistocene steppe bison utilized open habitats, their diets were significantly different, as reflected by their δ15N values. Additional isotopic analyses show that modern populations of European bison utilize much more forested habitats than Early Holocene bison, which supports the refugee status of the species. PMID:25671634

Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pozzi, Will; Sheffield, Justin; Stefanski, Robert; Cripe, Douglas; Pulwarty, Roger; Vogt, Jurgen V.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Brewer, Michael J.; Svoboda, Mark; Westerhoff, Rogier;

Early Holocene groundwater table fluctuations in relation to rice domestication in the middle Yangtze River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Tao; Liu, Yan; Sun, Qianli; Zong, Yongqiang; Finlayson, Brian; Chen, Zhongyuan

2017-01-01

The early Holocene environmental amelioration stimulated the trajectory of Neolithic farming cultures and specific geographic settings played a role in determining the nature of these cultures. Using microfossil evidence, the present study reveals that the fluctuations of the groundwater table substantially influenced rice domestication in the Dongting Lake area of the middle Yangtze River basin in the early Holocene. Our 14C-dated sediment core taken from the Bashidang (BSD) Neolithic site contains evidence that the site was a floodplain prior to human occupation ca. 8600 years ago. Poaceae, which contained wild rice (Oryza sp.) as indicated by combined pollen and phytolith evidence, and low counts of freshwater algae indicated a moist site condition. The area then gradually evolved into wetlands as the water table rose, in response to the increasing monsoon precipitation during the early Holocene. This favored rice domestication, assisted by firing and clearing, that continued to flourish for several hundred years. Finally, rice domestication declined during the late stage of the Pengtoushan culture, accompanied by evidence of the expansion of wetlands reflecting the effects of a rising groundwater table that had caused the cessation of rice farming at the Bashidang site after ca. 8000-7900 cal yr BP. This study shows that there are local effects at particular sites that may differ from the trend at the regional scale, necessitating a careful interpretation of the available evidence.

Building Better Drought Resilience Through Improved Monitoring and Early Warning: Learning From Stakeholders in Europe, the USA, and Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Hannaford, J.; Bachmair, S.; Tijdeman, E.; Collins, K.; Svoboda, M.; Knutson, C. L.; Wall, N.; Smith, K. H.; Bernadt, T.; Crossman, N. D.; Overton, I. C.; Barker, L. J.; Acreman, M. C.

2016-12-01

With climate projections suggesting that droughts will intensify in many regions in future, improved drought risk management may reduce potential threats to freshwater security across the globe. One aspect that has been called for in this respect is an improvement of the linkage of drought monitoring and early warning, which currently focuses largely on indicators from meteorology and hydrology, to drought impacts on environment and society. However, a survey of existing monitoring and early warning systems globally, that we report on in this contribution, demonstrates that although impacts are being monitored, there is limited work, and certainly little consensus, on how to best achieve this linkage. The Belmont Forum project DrIVER (Drought impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and early-warning research) carried out a number of stakeholder workshops in North America, Europe and Australia to elaborate on options for such improvements. A first round of workshops explored current drought management practices among a very diverse range of stakeholders, and their expectations from monitoring and early warning systems (particularly regarding impact characterization). The workshops revealed some disconnects between the indices used in the public early warning systems and those used by local decision-makers, e.g. to trigger drought measures. Follow-up workshops then explored how the links between information at these different scales can be bridged and applied. Impact information plays a key role in this task. This contribution draws on the lessons learned from the transdisciplinary interactions in DrIVER, to enhance the usability of drought monitoring and early-warning systems and other risk management strategies.

Late Pleistocene/Early Holocene Evidence of Prostatic Stones at Al Khiday Cemetery, Central Sudan

PubMed Central

Usai, Donatella

2017-01-01

The recovery of three stone-like ovoid objects within the burial of a pre-Mesolithic (Late Pleistocene/Early Holocene) individual at Al Khiday cemetery (Central Sudan) raises the question of the nature and origin of these objects. The position in which the objects were found in relation to the human skeleton suggested a pathological condition affecting the individual, possibly urinary bladder, kidney stones or gallstones. To solve this issue, a multi-analytical approach, consisting of tomographic, microstructural and compositional analyses, was therefore performed. Based on their microstructure and mineralogical composition, consisting of hydroxylapatite and whitlockite, the investigated stones were identified as primary (endogenous) prostatic calculi. In addition, the occurrence of bacterial imprints also indicates on-going infectious processes in the individual. This discovery of the earliest known case of lithiasis extends the appearance of prostatic stones into the Late Pleistocene/Early Holocene, a disease which therefore can no longer be considered exclusive to the modern era, but which also affected prehistoric individuals, whose lifestyle and diet were significantly different to our own. PMID:28122013

Developing a drought early warning information system for coastal ecosystems in the Carolinas

Treesearch

Kirsten Lackstrom; Amanda Brennan; Paul Conrads; Lisa Darby; Kirstin Dow; Daniel Tuford

2016-01-01

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)- funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program, are partnering to develop and support a Carolinas Drought Early Warning System pilot program. Research and projects focus on...

Functional response of U.S. grasslands to the early 21st-century drought

Treesearch

M. Susan Moran; Guillermo E. Ponce-Campos; Alfredo Huete; Mitchel P. McClaran; Yongguang Zhang; Erik P. Hamerlynck; David J. Augustine; Stacey A. Gunter; Stanley G. Kitchen; Debra P. C. Peters; Patrick J. Starks; Mariano Hernandez

2014-01-01

Grasslands across the United States play a key role in regional livelihood and national food security. Yet, it is still unclear how this important resource will respond to the prolonged warm droughts and more intense rainfall events predicted with climate change. The early 21st-century drought in the southwestern United States resulted in hydroclimatic conditions that...

Climate Change in Lowland Central America During the Late Deglacial and Early Holocene

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hillesheim, M B; Hodell, D A; Leyden, B W

2005-02-08

The transition from arid glacial to moist early Holocene conditions represented a profound change in northern lowland Neotropical climate. Here we report a detailed record of changes in moisture availability during the latter part of this transition ({approx}11,250 to 7,500 cal yr BP) inferred from sediment cores retrieved in Lake Peten Itza, northern Guatemala. Pollen assemblages demonstrate that a mesic forest had been largely established by {approx}11,250 cal yr BP, but sediment properties indicate that lake level was more than 35 m below modern stage. From 11,250 to 10,350 cal yr BP, during the Preboreal period, lithologic changes in sedimentsmore » from deep-water cores (>50 m below modern water level) indicate several wet-dry cycles that suggest distinct changes in effective moisture. Four dry events (designated PBE1-4) occurred at 11,200, 10,900, 10,700, and 10,400 cal yr BP and correlate with similar variability observed in the Cariaco Basin titanium record and glacial meltwater pulses into the Gulf of Mexico. After 10,350 cal yr BP, multiple sediment proxies suggest a shift to a more persistently moist early Holocene climate. Comparison of results from Lake Peten Itza with other records from the circum-Caribbean demonstrates a coherent climate response during the entire span of our record. Furthermore, lowland Neotropical climate during the late deglacial and early Holocene period appears to be tightly linked to climate change in the high-latitude North Atlantic. We speculate that the observed changes in lowland Neotropical precipitation were related to the intensity of the annual cycle and associated displacements in the mean latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Azores-Bermuda high-pressure system. This mechanism operated on millennial-to-submillennial timescales and may have responded to changes in solar radiation, glacial meltwater, North Atlantic sea ice, and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC).« less

Middle Holocene thermal maximum in eastern Beringia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, D. S.; Bartlein, P. J.

2015-12-01

A new systematic review of diverse Holocene paleoenvironmental records (Kaufman et al., Quat. Sci. Rev., in revision) has clarified the primary multi-centennial- to millennial-scale trends across eastern Beringia (Alaska, westernmost Canada and adjacent seas). Composite time series from midges, pollen, and biogeochemical indicators are compared with new summaries of mountain-glacier and lake-level fluctuations, terrestrial water-isotope records, sea-ice and sea-surface-temperature analyses, and peatland and thaw-lake initiation frequencies. The paleo observations are also compared with recently published simulations (Bartlein et al., Clim. Past Discuss., 2015) that used a regional climate model to simulate the effects of global and regional-scale forcings at 11 and 6 ka. During the early Holocene (11.5-8 ka), rather than a prominent thermal maximum as suggested previously, the newly compiled paleo evidence (mostly sensitive to summer conditions) indicates that temperatures were highly variable, at times both higher and lower than present, although the overall lowest average temperatures occurred during the earliest Holocene. During the middle Holocene (8-4 ka), glaciers retreated as the regional average temperature increased to a maximum between 7 and 5 ka, as reflected in most proxy types. The paleo evidence for low and variable temperatures during the early Holocene contrasts with more uniformly high temperatures during the middle Holocene and agrees with the climate simulations, which show that temperature in eastern Beringia was on average lower at 11 ka and higher at 6 ka than at present (pre-industrial). Low temperatures during the early Holocene can be attributed in part to the summer chilling caused by flooding the continental shelves, whereas the mid-Holocene thermal maximum was likely driven by the loss of the Laurentide ice sheet, rise in greenhouse gases, higher-than-present summer insolation, and expansion of forest over tundra.

Extensive Glacier Advances During the Pleistocene-Holocene Transition on Svalbard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ingolfsson, O.; Farnsworth, W. R.; Allaart, L.; Håkansson, L.; Schomacker, A.

2017-12-01

A variety of data suggest extensive glacier advances on Svalbard in connection with the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, during period of regional warming. We present a study of a well-constrained end moraine formed during the Lateglacial-early Holocene transition in De Geerbukta, NE Svalbard. The landform was deposited by an outlet glacier re-advancing into a fjord suggesting a far more extended position than the late Holocene maximum. We compare the synchronicity of this glacier advance to climate and 15 other proposed Lateglacial-Early Holocene glacier advances in Svalbard. The evidence suggests that the Lateglacial-Early Holocene glaciers were much more dynamic than hitherto recognized, exhibited re-advances and extended well beyond the extensively studied late Holocene glacial expansion. We suggest that the culmination of the Neoglacial advances during the Little Ice Age does not mark the Holocene maximum extent of most Svalbard glaciers; it is just the most studied and most visible in the geological record. Furthermore, the evidence suggests that the final phase of Svalbard deglaciation, after the last major glaciation, was characterized by widespread advances of Svalbard outlet glaciers. The presentation will discuss the implications of this.

Holocene temperature history of northern Iceland inferred from subfossil midges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Yarrow; Miller, Gifford H.; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Langdon, Peter G.

2007-12-01

The Holocene temperature history of Iceland is not well known, despite Iceland's climatically strategic location at the intersection of major surface currents in the high-latitude North Atlantic. Existing terrestrial records reveal spatially heterogeneous changes in Iceland's glacier extent, vegetation cover, and climate over the Holocene, but these records are temporally discontinuous and mostly qualitative. This paper presents the first quantitative estimates of temperatures throughout the entire Holocene on Iceland. Mean July temperatures are inferred based upon subfossil midge (Chironomidae) assemblages from three coastal lakes in northern Iceland. Midge data from each of the three lakes indicate broadly similar temperature trends, and suggest that the North Icelandic coast experienced relatively cool early Holocene summers and gradual warming throughout the Holocene until after 3 ka. This contrasts with many sites on Iceland and around the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere that experienced an early to mid-Holocene "thermal maximum" in response to enhanced summer insolation forcing. Our results suggest a heightened temperature gradient across Iceland in the early Holocene, with suppressed terrestrial temperatures along the northern coastal fringe, possibly as a result of sea surface conditions on the North Iceland shelf.

Holocene climate variability in Texas, USA: An integration of existing paleoclimate data and modeling with a new, high-resolution speleothem record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong, Corinne I.; Banner, Jay L.; Musgrove, MaryLynn

2015-01-01

Delineating the climate processes governing precipitation variability in drought-prone Texas is critical for predicting and mitigating climate change effects, and requires the reconstruction of past climate beyond the instrumental record. We synthesize existing paleoclimate proxy data and climate simulations to provide an overview of climate variability in Texas during the Holocene. Conditions became progressively warmer and drier transitioning from the early to mid Holocene, culminating between 7 and 3 ka (thousand years ago), and were more variable during the late Holocene. The timing and relative magnitude of Holocene climate variability, however, is poorly constrained owing to considerable variability among the different records. To help address this, we present a new speleothem (NBJ) reconstruction from a central Texas cave that comprises the highest resolution proxy record to date, spanning the mid to late Holocene. NBJ trace-element concentrations indicate variable moisture conditions with no clear temporal trend. There is a decoupling between NBJ growth rate, trace-element concentrations, and δ18O values, which indicate that (i) the often direct relation between speleothem growth rate and moisture availability is likely complicated by changes in the overlying ecosystem that affect subsurface CO2 production, and (ii) speleothem δ18O variations likely reflect changes in moisture source (i.e., proportion of Pacific-vs. Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture) that appear not to be linked to moisture amount.

Holocene climate variability in Texas, USA: An integration of existing paleoclimate data and modeling with a new, high-resolution speleothem record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Corinne I.; Banner, Jay L.; Musgrove, MaryLynn

2015-11-01

Delineating the climate processes governing precipitation variability in drought-prone Texas is critical for predicting and mitigating climate change effects, and requires the reconstruction of past climate beyond the instrumental record. We synthesize existing paleoclimate proxy data and climate simulations to provide an overview of climate variability in Texas during the Holocene. Conditions became progressively warmer and drier transitioning from the early to mid Holocene, culminating between 7 and 3 ka (thousand years ago), and were more variable during the late Holocene. The timing and relative magnitude of Holocene climate variability, however, is poorly constrained owing to considerable variability among the different records. To help address this, we present a new speleothem (NBJ) reconstruction from a central Texas cave that comprises the highest resolution proxy record to date, spanning the mid to late Holocene. NBJ trace-element concentrations indicate variable moisture conditions with no clear temporal trend. There is a decoupling between NBJ growth rate, trace-element concentrations, and δ18O values, which indicate that (i) the often direct relation between speleothem growth rate and moisture availability is likely complicated by changes in the overlying ecosystem that affect subsurface CO2 production, and (ii) speleothem δ18O variations likely reflect changes in moisture source (i.e., proportion of Pacific-vs. Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture) that appear not to be linked to moisture amount.

Who were the Nataruk people? Mandibular morphology among late Pleistocene and early Holocene fisher-forager populations of West Turkana (Kenya).

PubMed

Mounier, Aurélien; Correia, Maria; Rivera, Frances; Crivellaro, Federica; Power, Ronika; Jeffery, Joe; Wilshaw, Alex; Foley, Robert A; Mirazón Lahr, Marta

2018-05-29

Africa is the birthplace of the species Homo sapiens, and Africans today are genetically more diverse than other populations of the world. However, the processes that underpinned the evolution of African populations remain largely obscure. Only a handful of late Pleistocene African fossils (∼50-12 Ka) are known, while the more numerous sites with human fossils of early Holocene age are patchily distributed. In particular, late Pleistocene and early Holocene human diversity in Eastern Africa remains little studied, precluding any analysis of the potential factors that shaped human diversity in the region, and more broadly throughout the continent. These periods include the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a moment of extreme aridity in Africa that caused the fragmentation of population ranges and localised extinctions, as well as the 'African Humid Period', a moment of abrupt climate change and enhanced connectivity throughout Africa. East Africa, with its range of environments, may have acted as a refugium during the LGM, and may have played a critical biogeographic role during the heterogene`ous environmental recovery that followed. This environmental context raises a number of questions about the relationships among early Holocene African populations, and about the role played by East Africa in shaping late hunter-gatherer biological diversity. Here, we describe eight mandibles from Nataruk, an early Holocene site (∼10 Ka) in West Turkana, offering the opportunity of exploring population diversity in Africa at the height of the 'African Humid Period'. We use 3D geometric morphometric techniques to analyze the phenotypic variation of a large mandibular sample. Our results show that (i) the Nataruk mandibles are most similar to other African hunter-fisher-gatherer populations, especially to the fossils from Lothagam, another West Turkana locality, and to other early Holocene fossils from the Central Rift Valley (Kenya); and (ii) a phylogenetic connection may have

The NAO Influence on the Early to Mid-Holocene North Atlantic Coastal Upwelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, A.; Cachão, M.; Sousa, P.; Trigo, R. M.; Freitas, M. C.

2017-12-01

Coastal upwelling regions yield some of the oceanic most productive ecosystems, being crucial for the worldwide social and economic development. Most upwelling systems, emerging cold nutrient-rich deep waters, are located in the eastern boundaries of the Atlantic and Pacific basins, and are driven by meridional wind fields parallel to the coastal shore. These winds are associated with the subsiding branch of the large-scale Anticyclonic high pressure systems that dominate the subtropical ocean basins, and therefore can be displaced or intensified within the context of past and future climate changes. However, the role of the current global warming influencing the coastal upwelling is, as yet, unclear. Therefore it is essential to derive a long-term perspective, beyond the era of instrumental measurements, to detect similar warm periods in the past that have triggered changes in the upwelling patterns. In this work, the upwelling dynamics in the Iberian North Atlantic margin during the early and mid-Holocene is reconstructed, using calcareous nannofossils from a decadally resolved estuarine sediment core located in southwestern Portugal. Results suggest that the coastal dynamics reflects changes in winds direction likely related to shifts in the NAO-like conditions. Furthermore, the reconstructed centennial-scale variations in the upwelling are synchronous with changes in solar irradiance, a major external forcing factor of the climate system that is known to exert influence in atmospheric circulation patterns. In addition, these proxy-based data interpretations are in agreement with wind field and solar irradiance simulation modelling for the mid-Holocene. Therefore, the conclusion that the solar activity via the NAO modulation controlled the North Atlantic upwelling of western Iberia during the early and mid-Holocene at decadal to centennial timescales can be derived. The financial support for attending this meeting was possible through FCT project UID/GEO/50019

Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene variability and the role of insolation, ENSO, and the North American Monsoon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Lesleigh

2012-01-01

Over the period of instrumental records, precipitation maximum in the headwaters of the Colorado Rocky Mountains has been dominated by winter snow, with a substantial degree of interannual variability linked to Pacific ocean–atmosphere dynamics. High-elevation snowpack is an important water storage that is carefully observed in order to meet increasing water demands in the greater semi-arid region. The purpose here is to consider Rocky Mountain water trends during the Holocene when known changes in earth's energy balance were caused by precession-driven insolation variability. Changes in solar insolation are thought to have influenced the variability and intensity of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North American Monsoon and the seasonal precipitation balance between rain and snow at upper elevations. Holocene records are presented from two high elevation lakes located in northwest Colorado that document decade-to-century scale precipitation seasonality for the past ~ 7000 years. Comparisons with sub-tropical records of ENSO indicate that the snowfall-dominated precipitation maxima developed ~ 3000 and 4000 years ago, coincident with evidence for enhanced ENSO/PDO dynamics. During the early-to-mid Holocene the records suggest a more monsoon affected precipitation regime with reduced snowpack, more rainfall, and net moisture deficits that were more severe than recent droughts. The Holocene perspective of precipitation indicates a far broader range of variability than that of the past century and highlights the non-linear character of hydroclimate in the U.S. west.

How Early Holocene Greening of the Afro-Asian Dust Belt Changed Sources of Mineral Dust in West Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourmand, A.; Sharifi, A.; Goes, L. M.; Clement, A. C.; Canuel, E. A.; Naderi Beni, A.; Ahmady-Birgani, H.

2016-12-01

Production, transport and deposition of mineral dust have significant temporal and spatial impacts on different components of the Earth systems. In modern times, dust plumes can be associated with their source origin(s) using satellite and land-based measurements and back-trajectory reconstruction of air masses. Reconstructing past changes in the sources of mineral dust as related to changes in climate, however, must rely on the knowledge of the geochemical and mineralogical composition of modern and paleo-dust, and their potential source origins. In this contribution, we present a 13,000-year record of variations in radiogenic Sr-Nd-Hf isotopes and Rare Earth Element (REE) anomalies from an ombrotrophic (rain fed) peat core in NW Iran as proxies of past changes in sources of dust over West Asia. The geochemical fingerprint of dust particles deposited during the low-flux, early Holocene period (11,700-6,000 yr BP) is distinctly different from times of high dust fluxes during the Younger Dryas, and that of the mid-late Holocene. This indicates that the composition of mineral dust deposited at the receptor site changed as a function of prevailing atmospheric circulation regimes and land exposure. Simulations of atmospheric circulation over the region show the Northern Hemisphere Westerly Jet (NHWJ) was displaced poleward across the study area during the early Holocene when solar insolation was higher. This shift, coupled with lower dust emissions simulated based on greening of the Afro-Asian Dust Belt during the early Holocene likely led to potential sources in Central Asia to dominate dust export to West Asia during this period, in contrast to the dominant western and southwest Asian and Eastern African sources that prevail during the modern period.

Early Holocene estuary development of the Hesselø Bay area, southern Kattegat, Denmark and its implication for Ancylus Lake drainage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bendixen, Carina; Boldreel, Lars Ole; Jensen, Jørn Bo; Bennike, Ole; Hübscher, Christian; Clausen, Ole Rønø

2017-12-01

High-resolution shallow seismic data, sediment core information, radiocarbon dating and sequence stratigraphy have been used to interpret the late glacial to early Holocene geological evolution of Hesselø Bay in the southern Kattegat, Denmark. A reconstruction of the early Holocene coastal environment and a description of coastal processes associated with a river outlet into the bay are presented. Weichselian glacial deposits form the lowermost interpreted unit, covered by late glacial (LG) and postglacial (PG, Holocene) sediments. A funnel-shaped estuary existed at the mouth of channels in the period 10.3-9.2 cal. ka BP; the channels drained water from south to north. The early PG is characterised by estuarine and coastal deposits. The early Holocene bars that developed in the estuary are preserved as morphological features on the present-day seabed, possibly as a result of rapid relative sea-level rise. The estuary existed simultaneously with the occurrence and drainage of the Ancylus Lake. The drainage of this lake occurred through the Dana River (palaeo-Great Belt channel) into the southern Kattegat and then into the study area. The level of the Ancylus Lake in the Baltic Sea region dropped significantly at about 10.2 cal. ka BP at the same time as the estuary developed in the Kattegat region. One outcome of the present study is an enhanced understanding of the Ancylus Lake drainage path. No evidence of major erosion is seen, which indicates non-catastrophic continuous water flow from the south without major drainage events of the Ancylus Lake to the southern Kattegat. During the Littorina transgression, coastal estuarine conditions characterized the Hesselø Bay area where elongated ridges formed a bar system. As the Littorina transgression continued, back-stepping of the bar system and coastline occurred. When the transgression breached the Great Belt threshold, flooding caused major erosion throughout the study area.

Towards a European tephrochronological framework for Termination 1 and the Early Holocene.

PubMed

Davies, Siwan M; Branch, Nicholas P; Lowe, J John; Turney, Chris S M

2002-04-15

The record of deposition of tephras in Europe and the North Atlantic during the period 18.5-8.0 (14)C ka BP (the Last Termination and Early Holocene) is reviewed. Altogether, 34 tephras originating from four main volcanic provinces (Iceland, the Eifel district, the Massif Central and Italy) have been identified so far in geological sequences spanning this time-interval. Most of the records have been based, until very recently, on observations of visible layers of tephras. Here, we report on the potential for extending the areas over which some of the tephras can be traced by the search for layers of micro-tephra, which are not visible to the naked eye, and on the use of geochemical methods to correlate them with known tephra horizons. This approach has greatly extended the area in Northern Europe over which the Vedde Ash can be traced. The same potential exists in southern Europe, which is demonstrated for the first time by the discovery of a distinct layer of micro-tephra of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff in a site in the Northern Apennines in Italy, far to the north of the occurrences of visible records of this tephra. The paper closes by considering the potential for developing a robust European tephrostratigraphy to underpin the chronology of records of the Last Termination and Early Holocene, thereby promoting a better understanding of the nature, timing and environmental effects of the abrupt climatic changes that characterized this period.

Early-to-middle Holocene sea-level fluctuations, coastal progradation and the Neolithic occupations in Yaojiang valley of southern Hangzhou bay, eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Sun, Q.; Fan, D.; Chen, Z.

2017-12-01

The formation of Holocene coast in eastern China provided material base for the development of Neolithic civilizations. The coastal Yaojiang valley of south Hangzhou bay was one of the examples where the well-known Neolithic Hemudu Culture (HC) of Eastern China initiated. Here, we studied the early-to-middle Holocene environment changes in relation to sea-level fluctuations on the basis of a serial of sediment cores based on a set of new Accelerator Mass Spectrometry radiocarbon (AMS 14C) chronology. The result indicated that relative sea-level rose rapidly in the Yaojiang valley at the early Holocene, reaching its maximum at ca. 8000-7800 cal yr BP and then decelerated at ca. 7800-7500 cal yr BP. The alluvial plain in Yaojiang valley began to form at the foothills first and then grew towards the valley center accompanying with the sea-level stabilization after ca. 7500 cal yr BP. This progressive progradation of alluvial plain would attract the early arrivals of foragers to dwell at the foothills to engaging in rice farming after ca.7000 cal yr BP and starting the epic Hemudu Culture. The HC people then move down to the valley center as more land became available thanks to sediment aggregation and progradation. The rise and development of HC were closely associated with the sea-level induced landscape changes in Yaojiang valley at the early-middle Holocene, and the unstable hydraulic condition in the valley after 5000 cal yr BP could be accountable for the cultural termination.

Late Holocene Drought Variability in Eastern North America: Evidence From the Peatland Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, R. K.; Jackson, S. T.

2006-12-01

Tree-ring based drought chronologies from semi-arid regions of western North America have revealed substantial variability in water balance during the past 1000 years, including episodes of persistent drought more severe than any observed during historical times. Delimitation of regional and continental-scale footprints of these past drought events, including their spatial patterning in humid regions where moisture-sensitive paleoclimate records are scarce, is critical to understanding their dynamics and potential causes. Ombrotrophic peatlands are scattered throughout humid regions of North America at mid-latitudes and represent an underutilized source of multidecadal-scale information on past moisture variations. We are developing a spatial network of peatland-derived paleoclimate and paleoecological records in eastern North America, in an effort to 1) determine whether large, decadal to multidecadal droughts of the past several thousand years were spatially and temporally coherent, 2) assess whether the magnitude of past drought events was sufficient to force ecological change in terrestrial ecosystems, and 3) assess the underlying mechanisms and dynamics of widespread drought in North America. We have completed water-level reconstructions based on testate-amoeba assemblages from two ombrotrophic peatlands in mid-continental North America, Hole in the Bog (NC Minnesota) and Minden Bog (SE Michgian). We also have developed reconstructions from three Sphagnum-dominated kettle peatlands, South Rhody Peatland (NC Michigan), Hornet Peatland (NW Wisconsin), and Irwin Smith Peatland (NE Michigan). Although these kettle peatlands are not truly ombrotrophic, high-magnitude water-table fluctuations should still be attributable to climate variability, and we use these records to supplement our interpretation of regional climate history. Our results indicate that all high-magnitude fluctuations in water balance were spatially extensive, affecting bog-surface moisture

Environmental, depositional and cultural changes in the upper Pleistocene and early Holocene; the Cinglera del Capello Sequence (Capellades, Spain)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaquero, Manuel; Allué, Ethel; Bischoff, James L.; Burjachs, Francesc; Vallverdú, Josep

2013-01-01

The correlation between environmental and cultural changes is one of the primary archeological and paleoanthropological research topics. Analysis of ice and marine cores has yielded a high-resolution record of millennial-scale changes during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene eras. However, cultural changes are documented in low-resolution continental deposits; thus, their correlation with the millennial-scale climatic sequence is often difficult. In this paper, we present a rare occurrence in which a thick archeological sequence is associated with a high-resolution environmental record. The Cinglera del Capello is a tufa-draped cliff located in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula, 50 km west of Barcelona. This cliff harbors several rock-shelters with Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene deposits. Together, the deposits of four rock-shelters span from 7000 to 70,000 years ago and provide a high-resolution record of the environmental and human dynamics during this timespan. This record allows the correlation of the cultural and environmental changes. The multiproxy approach to the Cinglera evidence indicates that the main cultural stages of the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene (Middle Paleolithic, Upper Paleolithic and Mesolithic) are associated with significant changes in the environmental and depositional contexts.

Small-Mammal Data on Early and Middle Holocene Climates and Biotic Communities in the Bonneville Basin, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitt, Dave N.; Madsen, David B.; Lupo, Karen D.

2002-11-01

Archaeological investigations in Camels Back Cave, western Utah, recovered a series of small-mammal bone assemblages from stratified deposits dating between ca. 12,000 and 500 14C yr B.P. The cave's early Holocene fauna includes a number of species adapted to montane or mesic habitats containing grasses and/or sagebrush (e.g., Lepus townsendii, Marmota flaviventris, Reithrodontomys megalotis, and Brachylagus idahoensis) which suggest that the region was relatively cool and moist until after 8800 14C yr B.P. Between ca. 8600 and 8100 14C yr B.P. these mammals became locally extinct, taxonomic diversity declined, and there was an increase in species well-adapted to xeric, low-elevation habitats, including ground squirrels, Lepus californicus and Neotoma lepida. The early small-mammal record from Camels Back Cave is similar to the 11,300-6000 14C yr B.P. mammalian sequence from Homestead Cave, northwestern Utah, and provides corroborative data on Bonneville Basin paleoenvironments and mammalian responses to middle Holocene desertification.

New radiocarbon dates for terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene settlements in West Turkana, northern Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyin, Amanuel; Prendergast, Mary E.; Grillo, Katherine M.; Wang, Hong

2017-07-01

The Turkana Basin in northern Kenya is located in an environmentally sensitive region along the eastern African Rift system. Lake Turkana's sensitivity to fluctuations in precipitation makes this an ideal place to study prehistoric human adaptations during key climatic transitions. Here we present eleven radiocarbon dates from two recently excavated sites in West Turkana, Kokito 01 and Kokito 02. The sites span the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, a time of fluctuating lake levels and novel cultural responses within the region. Several scenarios are laid out for the interpretation of site chronologies, and these are discussed with reference to the terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene chronological record for the region. Given the paucity of well-dated sites from this timespan in the Turkana Basin, the new radiocarbon dates are an important step toward establishing human settlement history and associated cultural developments in the region.

Skeletal variation among early Holocene North American humans: implications for origins and diversity in the Americas.

PubMed

Auerbach, Benjamin M

2012-12-01

The movement of humans into the Americas remains a major topic of debate among scientific disciplines. Central to this discussion is ascertaining the timing and migratory routes of the earliest colonizers, in addition to understanding their ancestry. Molecular studies have recently argued that the colonizing population was isolated from other Asian populations for an extended period before proceeding to colonize the Americas. This research has suggested that Beringia was the location of this "incubation," though archaeological and skeletal data have not yet supported this hypothesis. This study employs the remains of the five most complete North American male early Holocene skeletons to examine patterns of human morphology at the earliest observable time period. Stature, body mass, body breadth, and limb proportions are examined in the context of male skeletal samples representing the range of morphological variation in North America in the last two millennia of the Holocene. These are also compared with a global sample. Results indicate that early Holocene males have variable postcranial morphologies, but all share the common trait of wide bodies. This trait, which is retained in more recent indigenous North American groups, is associated with adaptations to cold climates. Peoples from the Americas exhibit wider bodies than other populations sampled globally. This pattern suggests the common ancestral population of all of these indigenous American groups had reduced morphological variation in this trait. Furthermore, this provides support for a single, possibly high latitude location for the genetic isolation of ancestors of the human colonizers of the Americas. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

El Niño evolution during the Holocene revealed by a biomarker rain gauge in the Galápagos Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Leduc, G.; Sachs, J. P.

2014-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest perturbation to the climate system on an inter-annual time scale, but its evolution since the end of the last ice age remains debated due to the lack of unambiguous ENSO records lasting longer than a few centuries. Changes in the concentration and hydrogen isotope ratio of lipids produced by the green alga Botryococcus braunii, which blooms during El Niño rains in the Galápagos Islands, indicate that the early Holocene (9200-5600 yr BP) was characterized by alternating extremes in the intensity and/or frequency of El Niño events that lasted a century or more. Our data from the core of the ENSO region thus calls into question earlier studies that reported a lack of El Niño activity in the early Holocene. In agreement with other proxy evidence from the tropical Pacific, the mid-Holocene (5600-3500 yr BP) was a time of consistently weak El Niño activity, as were the Early Middle Ages (~1000-1500 yr BP). El Niño activity was moderate to high during the remainder of the last 3500 years. Periods of strong or frequent El Niño tended to occur during peaks in solar activity and during extended droughts in the United States Great Plains linked to La Niña. These changing modes of ENSO activity at millennial and multi-centennial timescales may have been caused by variations in the seasonal receipts of solar radiation associated with the precession of the equinoxes and/or changes in solar activity, respectively.

Quantification of Holocene Asian monsoon rainfall from spatially separated cave records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Chaoyong; Henderson, Gideon M.; Huang, Junhua; Xie, Shucheng; Sun, Ying; Johnson, Kathleen R.

2008-02-01

A reconstruction of Holocene rainfall is presented for southwest China — an area prone to drought and flooding due to variability in the East Asian monsoon. The reconstruction is derived by comparing a new high-resolution stalagmite δ18O record with an existing record from the same moisture transport pathway. The new record is from Heshang Cave (30°27'N, 110°25'E; 294 m) and shows no sign of kinetic or evaporative effects so can be reliably interpreted as a record of local rainfall composition and temperature. Heshang lies 600 km downwind from Dongge Cave which has a published high-resolution δ18O record (Wang, Y.J., Cheng, H., Edwards, R.L., He, Y.Q., Kong, X.G., An, Z.S., Wu, J.Y., Kelly, M.J., Dykoski, C.A., Li, X.D., 2005. The Holocene Asian monsoon: links to solar changes and North Atlantic climate. Science 308, 854-857). By differencing co-eval δ18O values for the two caves, secondary controls on δ18O (e.g. moisture source, moisture transport, non-local rainfall, temperature) are circumvented and the resulting Δ δ18O signal is controlled directly by the amount of rain falling between the two sites. This is confirmed by comparison with rainfall data from the instrumental record, which also allows a calibration of the Δ δ18O proxy. The calibrated Δ δ18O record provides a quantitative history of rainfall in southwest China which demonstrates that rainfall was 8% higher than today during the Holocene climatic optimum (≈ 6 ka), but only 3% higher during the early Holocene. Significant multi-centennial variability also occurred, with notable dry periods at 8.2 ka, 4.8-4.1 ka, 3.7-3.1 ka, 1.4-1.0 ka and during the Little Ice Age. This Holocene rainfall record provides a good target with which to test climate models. The approach used here, of combining stalagmite records from more than one location, will also allow quantification of rainfall patterns for past times in other regions.

Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought

PubMed Central

Cayan, Daniel R.; Das, Tapash; Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Tyree, Mary; Gershunov, Alexander

2010-01-01

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, particularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and persist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were remarkably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge. PMID:21149687

Future dryness in the Southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, D.R.; Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Barnett, T.P.; Tyree, Mary; Gershunova, A.

2010-01-01

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, particularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and persist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were remarkably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge.

Rapid thinning of Pine Island Glacier in the early Holocene.

PubMed

Johnson, J S; Bentley, M J; Smith, J A; Finkel, R C; Rood, D H; Gohl, K; Balco, G; Larter, R D; Schaefer, J M

2014-02-28

Pine Island Glacier, a major outlet of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, has been undergoing rapid thinning and retreat for the past two decades. We demonstrate, using glacial-geological and geochronological data, that Pine Island Glacier (PIG) also experienced rapid thinning during the early Holocene, around 8000 years ago. Cosmogenic (10)Be concentrations in glacially transported rocks show that this thinning was sustained for decades to centuries at an average rate of more than 100 centimeters per year, which is comparable with contemporary thinning rates. The most likely mechanism was a reduction in ice shelf buttressing. Our findings reveal that PIG has experienced rapid thinning at least once in the past and that, once set in motion, rapid ice sheet changes in this region can persist for centuries.

North Atlantic forcing of moisture delivery to Europe throughout the Holocene

PubMed Central

Smith, Andrew C.; Wynn, Peter M.; Barker, Philip A.; Leng, Melanie J.; Noble, Stephen R.; Tych, Wlodek

2016-01-01

Century-to-millennial scale fluctuations in precipitation and temperature are an established feature of European Holocene climates. Changes in moisture delivery are driven by complex interactions between ocean moisture sources and atmospheric circulation modes, making it difficult to resolve the drivers behind millennial scale variability in European precipitation. Here, we present two overlapping decadal resolution speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from a cave on the Atlantic coastline of northern Iberia, covering the period 12.1–0 ka. Speleothem δ18O reveals nine quasi-cyclical events of relatively wet-to-dry climatic conditions during the Holocene. Dynamic Harmonic Regression modelling indicates that changes in precipitation occurred with a ~1500 year frequency during the late Holocene and at a shorter length during the early Holocene. The timing of these cycles coincides with changes in North Atlantic Ocean conditions, indicating a connectivity between ocean conditions and Holocene moisture delivery. Early Holocene climate is potentially dominated by freshwater outburst events, whilst ~1500 year cycles in the late Holocene are more likely driven by changes internal to the ocean system. This is the first continental record of its type that clearly demonstrates millennial scale connectivity between the pulse of the ocean and precipitation over Europe through the entirety of the Holocene. PMID:27109216

Small-mammal data on early and middle Holocene climates and biotic communities in the Bonneville Basin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmitt, D.N.; Madsen, D.B.; Lupo, K.D.

2002-01-01

Archaeological investigations in Camels Back Cave, western Utah, recovered a series of small-mammal bone assemblages from stratified deposits dating between ca. 12,000 and 500 14C yr B.P. The cave's early Holocene fauna includes a number of species adapted to montane or mesic habitats containing grasses and/or sagebrush (e.g., Lepus townsendii, Marmota flaviventris, Reithrodontomys megalotis, and Brachylagus idahoensis) which suggest that the region was relatively cool and moist until after 8800 14C yr B.P. Between ca. 8600 and 8100 14C yr B.P. these mammals became locally extinct, taxonomic diversity declined, and there was an increase in species well-adapted to xeric, low-elevation habitats, including ground squirrels, Lepus californicus and Neotoma lepida. The early small-mammal record from Camels Back Cave is similar to the 11,300-6000 14C yr B.P. mammalian sequence from Homestead Cave, northwestern Utah, and provides corroborative data on Bonneville Basin paleoenvironments and mammalian responses to middle Holocene desertification. ?? 2002 University of Washington.

A new late glacial to early Holocene palaeobotanical and archaeological record in the Eastern Pre-Alps: the Palughetto basin (Cansiglio Plateau, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avigliano, Roberto; di Anastasio, Giulio; Improta, Salvatore; Peresani, Marco; Ravazzi, Cesare

2000-12-01

A late glacial to early Holocene lacustrine and peat succession, rich in conifer remains and including some palaeolithic flint artefacts, has been investigated in the Palughetto intermorainic basin (Venetian Pre-Alps). The geomorphological and stratigraphical relationships, 14C dates and pollen analyses allow a reconstruction of the environmental history of the basin and provide significant insights into the reforestation and peopling of the Pre-Alps. The onset of peat accumulation is dated to 14.4-14.1 kyr cal. BP, coinciding with reforestation at middle altitudes that immediately post-dates the immigration of Larix decidua and Picea abies subsp. europaea. Plant macrofossils point to the expansion of spruce about 14.3 kyr cal. BP, so far one of the earliest directly dated in the late glacial period of southern Europe. The previous hypothesis of an early Holocene spruce immigration in the Southern Alps from Slovenia needs reconsideration. Organic sedimentation stopped at the end of the Younger Dryas and was followed by the evolution of hydromorphic soils containing lithic artefacts, anthropic structures and wood charcoal. The typological features of the flint implements refer human occupation of the site to the end of the recent Epigravettian. Charcoals yielded dates either consistent with, or younger than, the archaeological chronology, in the early and middle Holocene.

Monitoring and modeling agricultural drought for famine early warning (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdin, J. P.; Funk, C.; Budde, M. E.; Lietzow, R.; Senay, G. B.; Smith, R.; Pedreros, D.; Rowland, J.; Artan, G. A.; Husak, G. J.; Michaelsen, J.; Adoum, A.; Galu, G.; Magadzire, T.; Rodriguez, M.

2009-12-01

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) makes quantitative estimates of food insecure populations, and identifies the places and periods during which action must be taken to assist them. Subsistence agriculture and pastoralism are the predominant livelihood systems being monitored, and they are especially drought-sensitive. At the same time, conventional climate observation networks in developing countries are often sparse and late in reporting. Consequently, remote sensing has played a significant role since FEWS NET began in 1985. Initially there was heavy reliance on vegetation index imagery from AVHRR to identify anomalies in landscape greenness indicative of drought. In the latter part of the 1990s, satellite rainfall estimates added a second, independent basis for identification of drought. They are used to force crop water balance models for the principal rainfed staple crops in twenty FEWS NET countries. Such models reveal seasonal moisture deficits associated with yield reduction on a spatially continuous basis. In 2002, irrigated crops in southwest Asia became a concern, and prompted the implementation of a gridded energy balance model to simulate the seasonal mountain snow pack, the main source of irrigation water. MODIS land surface temperature data are also applied in these areas to directly estimate actual seasonal evapotranspiration on the irrigated lands. The approach reveals situations of reduced irrigation water supply and crop production due to drought. The availability of MODIS data after 2000 also brought renewed interest in vegetation index imagery. MODIS NDVI data have proven to be of high quality, thanks to significant spectral and spatial resolution improvements over AVHRR. They are vital to producing rapid harvest assessments for drought-impacted countries in Africa and Asia. The global food crisis that emerged in 2008 has led to expansion of FEWS NET monitoring to over 50 additional countries. Unlike previous practice, these

An assessment of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) based global drought early warning forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, E. F.; Yuan, X.; Sheffield, J.; Pan, M.; Roundy, J.

2013-12-01

One of the key recommendations of the WCRP Global Drought Information System (GDIS) workshop is to develop an experimental real-time global monitoring and prediction system. While great advances has been made in global drought monitoring based on satellite observations and model reanalysis data, global drought forecasting has been stranded in part due to the limited skill both in climate forecast models and global hydrologic predictions. Having been working on drought monitoring and forecasting over USA for more than a decade, the Princeton land surface hydrology group is now developing an experimental global drought early warning system that is based on multiple climate forecast models and a calibrated global hydrologic model. In this presentation, we will test its capability in seasonal forecasting of meteorological, agricultural and hydrologic droughts over global major river basins, using precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow forecasts respectively. Based on the joint probability distribution between observations using Princeton's global drought monitoring system and model hindcasts and real-time forecasts from North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project, we (i) bias correct the monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts from multiple climate forecast models, (ii) downscale them to a daily time scale, and (iii) use them to drive the calibrated VIC model to produce global drought forecasts at a 1-degree resolution. A parallel run using the ESP forecast method, which is based on resampling historical forcings, is also carried out for comparison. Analysis is being conducted over global major river basins, with multiple drought indices that have different time scales and characteristics. The meteorological drought forecast does not have uncertainty from hydrologic models and can be validated directly against observations - making the validation an 'apples-to-apples' comparison. Preliminary results for the evaluation of meteorological drought onset

Early and Middle Holocene evidence for plant use and cultivation in the Middle Cauca River Basin, Cordillera Central (Colombia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aceituno, Francisco J.; Loaiza, Nicolás

2014-02-01

This paper presents the latest results of research done in the Colombian Andean region known as Middle Cauca River Basin, an important location for the study of the origins of plant use and the dispersal of domesticates throughout the Americas due to its geographical position in northwest South America. We discuss human-environment interactions during Pleistocene/Holocene transition to middle Holocene (ca 10,000-4000 BP), specifically human-plant interaction and environmental factors that led to the adoption of horticultural practices. Three lines of evidence are analyzed: archaeological stratigraphy, lithic technology, and microbotanical remains. Our results suggest that early Holocene environmental stability allowed Middle Cauca settlers to use the diverse local resources for several millennia, altering the local vegetation, and leading to the development of horticultural practices that included the use of both local and foreign plants. These results inform the ongoing debate about the antiquity and nature of plant domestication and dispersals in the Americas.

Mid to late-Holocene diatom microfossils and geochemical proxies as evidence for paleoclimate in the Hudson River estuary, New York

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurung, D.; McHugh, C. M.; Kenna, T. C.; Burckle, L.

2009-05-01

New methodologies that combine the use of microfossil diatom assemblages, and elemental geochemistry (bromine (Br)) are being developed to assess late Holocene climatic variability in estuaries. The main idea is that in an estuary the saltwater wedge fluctuates in response to the volume of fluvial discharge that depends on surface runoff from precipitation and melting of snow (spring freshet). During times of high precipitation the saltwater wedge is pushed seaward. In contrast, during times of drought the saltwater wedge moves landward into the estuary. The Hudson River estuary in New York was flooded by marine waters in the early Holocene and at present its sedimentation patterns are in a state of dynamic equilibrium. Guided by high-resolution multibeam bathymetry, sediment cores (˜6 m in length) were recovered from the oligohaline parts of the estuary where discharge and precipitation changes have more impact on the saltwater wedge fluctuations. In those cores that showed continuous sedimentation, diatom assemblages and Br (ppm) were studied and used as proxies for salinity. Diatom assemblages (marine, freshwater and brackish) were identified and counted and Br (ppm) was measured by X-ray fluorescence spectrometry with an Innov-X portable system. The results were calibrated to an Pb-210 age model and compared with instrumental data of precipitation, river discharge, and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), The results obtained from two different locations show that marine diatom abundance and Br content correlate with periods of high precipitation during 1992-1988; 1985-1980; 1976-1968; 1962-1958; and increase with periods of low precipitation or droughts in 1987-1985; 1980-1975; 1967-1962; 1943-1938. The mid to late Holocene record shows a variability on the scale of ˜300 to 400 years similar to that obtained by Cronin et al. (2003) for Chesapeake Bay and related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. From 1992 to the present, both marine diatoms and Br ppm

Pollen from accurately dated speleothems supports alpine glacier low-stands during the early Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Festi, Daniela; Hoffmann, Dirk L.; Luetscher, Marc

2016-07-01

Deciphering pollen assemblages from alpine speleothems holds potential to provide unique information about past vegetation in rapidly changing environments. Here, we reconstruct subsurface aerosol transport at Milchbach cave (Switzerland, 1840 m asl) based on the pollen content of two Holocene stalagmites. We demonstrate that pollen is chiefly associated with bacterially mediated calcite fabrics, typical of a well-ventilated cave system. In contrast, pollen is absent from columnar calcite fabrics confirming that hydrological transport is not a significant process for the incorporation of pollen into speleothems at Milchbach cave. Our results support significant changes in the subsurface ventilation regime, which can be associated with the waxing and waning of Upper Grindelwald glacier. Pollen assemblages obtained from six carbonate sub-samples attest the presence of a mixed deciduous forest in the Grindelwald valley during the early and middle Holocene, in agreement with coeval regional pollen records. This study demonstrates that even small amounts of calcite (0.3-2.8 cm3) are capable of delivering pollen spectra representative of the original vegetation if sufficiently elevated deposition fluxes are provided.

Clinal variation of some mammals during the Holocene in Missouri

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purdue, James R.

1980-03-01

Eastern cottontail ( Sylvilagus floridanus), fox squirrel ( Sciurus niger), and gray squirrel ( Sciurus carolinensis) were examined for clinal variation during the Holocene. Modern samples of all three species displayed strong east-west patterns along the western edge of the eastern deciduous forest: S. floridanus and S. niger decrease and S. carolinensis increases in size. Archeological samples of S. carolinensis from Rodgers Shelter (23BE125), Benton County, Missouri, and Graham Cave (23MT2), Montgomery County, Missouri, indicated an increase in size from early to middle Holocene. Sylvilagus floridanus from Rodgers Shelter decreased in size from early to middle Holocene and then increased during the late Holocene to modern proportions. A literature survey reveals that clinal variation is a common phenomenon among modern homeotherms. In introduced species, clinal variation has developed after relatively few generations, indicating rapid adaptations to environmental conditions; often winter climatic variables are implicated. Morphological variation in the study species during the Holocene is interpreted as a response to changing climates. Studies of morphological clines may lead to another valuable data source for reconstructing past ecologies.

Toward a categorical drought prediction system based on U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and climate forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Xia, Youlong; Luo, Lifeng; Singh, Vijay P.; Ouyang, Wei; Hao, Fanghua

2017-08-01

Disastrous impacts of recent drought events around the world have led to extensive efforts in drought monitoring and prediction. Various drought information systems have been developed with different indicators to provide early drought warning. The climate forecast from North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) has been among the most salient progress in climate prediction and its application for drought prediction has been considerably growing. Since its development in 1999, the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) has played a critical role in drought monitoring with different drought categories to characterize drought severity, which has been employed to aid decision making by a wealth of users such as natural resource managers and authorities. Due to wide applications of USDM, the development of drought prediction with USDM drought categories would greatly aid decision making. This study presented a categorical drought prediction system for predicting USDM drought categories in the U.S., based on the initial conditions from USDM and seasonal climate forecasts from NMME. Results of USDM drought categories predictions in the U.S. demonstrate the potential of the prediction system, which is expected to contribute to operational early drought warning in the U.S.

Multiproxy evidence of Holocene climate variability from estuarine sediments, eastern North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Thunell, R.; Dwyer, G.S.; Saenger, C.; Mann, M.E.; Vann, C.; Seal, R.R.

2005-01-01

We reconstructed paleoclimate patterns from oxygen and carbon isotope records from the fossil estuarine benthic foraminifera Elphidium and Mg/ Ca ratios from the ostracode Loxoconcha from sediment cores from Chesapeake Bay to examine the Holocene evolution of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-type climate variability. Precipitation-driven river discharge and regional temperature variability are the primary influences on Chesapeake Bay salinity and water temperature, respectively. We first calibrated modern ??18 Owater to salinity and applied this relationship to calculate trends in paleosalinity from the ??18 Oforam, correcting for changes in water temperature estimated from ostracode Mg /Ca ratios. The results indicate a much drier early Holocene in which mean paleosalinity was ???28 ppt in the northern bay, falling ???25% to ???20 ppt during the late Holocene. Early Holocene Mg/Ca-derived temperatures varied in a relatively narrow range of 13?? to 16??C with a mean temperature of 14.2??C and excursions above 16??C; the late Holocene was on average cooler (mean temperature of 12.8??C). In addition to the large contrast between early and late Holocene regional climate conditions, multidecadal (20-40 years) salinity and temperature variability is an inherent part of the region's climate during both the early and late Holocene, including the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. These patterns are similar to those observed during the twentieth century caused by NAO-related processes. Comparison of the midlatitude Chesapeake Bay salinity record with tropical climate records of Intertropical Convergence Zone fluctuations inferred from the Cariaco Basin titanium record suggests an anticorrelation between precipitation in the two regions at both millennial and centennial timescales. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Mid-Holocene Drought in the Andes and Associated Impacts on Hydrology of the Amazon River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Toledo, M. B.; Bush, M. B.; Figueiredo, A. G.

2007-05-01

Pollen, charcoal, and radiocarbon analyses were performed on a 2m-long sediment core obtained from Lake Tapera (coastal Amapa) to provide the paleoenvironmental history of this part of Amazonia. Detrended Correspondence Analysis was applied to the pollen data to improve visualization of sample distribution and similarity. The chronology was based on seven AMS radiocarbon dates, which allowed the establishment of a basal age (8,060 yrs BP) and identification of a sedimentary hiatus lasting 5,500 years (c. 7,100-1600 yrs BP) in Lake Tapera. Because the timing of the hiatus overlapped with the highest Holocene sea-level (5,000 yrs BP), which would have increased the local water table preventing the lake from drying out, it is clear that sea-level was not important in maintaining the lake level. As Lake Tapera apparently depended on riverine flood waters, the sedimentary gap was probably caused by reduced Amazon River discharge, due to an extremely dry period in the Andes (8,000-5,000 years BP), when precipitation levels markedly decreased. One of the impacts of this drought in the Andes was a c. 100m drop in Lake Titicaca water depth. The contrasting presence before and after the hiatus of Andean pollen (river transported) in the record of Lake Tapera supports this interpretation. The pollen analysis also shows that when sedimentation resumed in 1,620 cal. years BP, vegetation around the lake was changed from forest into savanna. This record demonstrates the need to improve our understanding of climate changes and the extent of their associated impacts on the environment.

Changes in mid to late Holocene monsoon strength in eastern Mexico inferred from high-resolution maar lake sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, T.; Byrne, R.; Wogau, K.; Bohnel, H.

2013-12-01

Understanding the Holocene variation in central Mexico's summer precipitation can help identify the processes responsible for climatic change and clarify the role of climate in Mesoamerican cultural change. We present proxy results from Aljojuca, a maar lake in the Oriental-Serdan Basin in Mexico's Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The 12 m sediment core from Aljojuca features a laminated, high-resolution proxy archive. A chronology established via radiocarbon dating shows a basal date of 6,200 cal. years B.P. We use fluctuations in pollen, elemental geochemistry, and the stable isotope ratios of authigenic carbonates to reconstruct the timing and duration of mid to late Holocene droughts in central Mexico. We compare these results with geochemical analyses of maar wall rocks and palynological analyses of modern moss polsters to strengthen our interpretations of proxy results. We interpret periods of aridity as periods of reduced summer precipitation and therefore decreased summer monsoon strength. Our results reveal evidence of a gradual decrease in monsoon strength from the mid to late Holocene. We also identify a multi-century dry period between 1,150 and 800 cal yr. BP, coinciding with the abandonment of the nearby fortified city of Cantona. Spatiotemporal analysis of this and other paleoclimatic records reveals region-wide evidence of this ';Terminal Classic' drought, although its timing is spatially heterogeneous. Our results represent one of the only high-resolution mid-Holocene records from the eastern Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt.

Holocene Beaver Effects on Small Streams in Yellowstone and Implications for Stream Restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persico, L. P.; Meyer, G.

2005-12-01

It has been asserted that beaver ( Castor canadensis) damming has sustained long-term aggradation and exerted a dominant control on the morphology of small streams over much of North America. However, data on the temporal and spatial dimensions of beaver influence are extremely limited. Using beaver pond deposits and berms (abandoned dams), we document geomorphic effects of beavers on first- to fourth-order streams in semiarid-subhumid northern Yellowstone National Park, USA. Beavers were ubiquitous in the early 20th century, but are currently rare. Some formerly dammed streams have become ephemeral in recent droughts, suggesting that climate may be a significant factor controlling beaver occupation. Radiocarbon dating of wood preserved in pond deposits and berms shows notable periods of beaver activity 3655-3855, 1555-955, and 455-150 cal yr BP, but a distinct lack of activity 950-700 cal yr BP during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly, a time of severe multidecadal droughts in Yellowstone and the western USA. The spatial scale over which beavers incurred significant aggradation is controlled largely by geomorphic settings conducive to damming. Low-gradient (0.07 to 0.001) reaches with contributing areas of 4 to 70 km2 are typical for dam sites. Reaches with downstream valley constrictions are most susceptible to aggradation. Only a small fraction of the total stream length in the study area has experienced significant aggradation attributable to beaver damming, as shown by accumulations of sand and finer sediment of up to 3 m, thicker than typical overbank sediments. These sediments locally contain evidence of ponding in laminations, gleying, and high organic content. Many reaches show no evidence of any net aggradation since deglaciation. Many beaver-aggraded reaches are now incised, typically 1.5-2 m and up to 3 m. Some reaches have early Holocene (ca. 10150-8000 cal yr BP) terraces with treads ~2 m above current bankfull level, underlain by both gravelly and fine

A two millennium-long hot drought in the southwestern United States driven by Arctic sea-ice retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lachniet, M. S.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V. J.; Denniston, R. F.

2017-12-01

The Great Basin and lower Colorado River Basin are susceptible to sustained droughts that impact water resources and economic activity for millions of residents of the southwestern United States. The causes of past droughts in the basin remain debated. Herein, we document a strong Arctic to mid-latitude teleconnection during the Holocene that resulted in an extreme `hot drought' persisting for more than two millennia in the southwestern United States, based on a continuous growth rate and new high-resolution carbon and oxygen isotopic time series from a precisely-dated stalagmite from Leviathan Cave, Nevada. Between 9850-7670 yr B2k, highest Holocene oxygen isotope values indicate warm temperatures and moisture-sensitive proxies of high carbon isotope values and low stalagmite growth rate and minimal soil productivity and aquifer recharge. We refer to this period as the Altithermal Hot Drought. A second interval (6770 to 5310 yr B2k) indicates a warm drought. The two Altithermal droughts exceed in severity and duration any droughts observed in the modern and tree-ring records. Further, we show that Altithermal hot droughts were widespread in the southwestern United States, at a time when human populations in the Great Basin were low. The droughts show strong similarities to proxies for Arctic paleoclimate and we suggest that insolation-driven changes in sea ice and snow cover extent in the high latitudes drove atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Great Basin. Because rising greenhouse gas concentrations are projected to increase global and Arctic temperatures with a possible loss of summer sea by the end of the 21st century, our record suggests that a return to prolonged hotter and drier conditions in the southern Great Basin and lower Colorado River Basin is possible within coming centuries.

Holocene environmental change at the oasis of Tayma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, Max; Brückner, Helmut; Wellbrock, Kai; Pint, Anna; Grottker, Matthias; Voss, Peter; Ginau, Andreas; Klasen, Nicole; Frenzel, Peter

2013-04-01

The oasis of Tayma in northwestern Saudi Arabia has a rich cultural heritage comprising a large number of historic buildings and artefacts from the late Neolithic onwards. Extensive groundwater resources and the location at a branch of the Incense Road connecting south Arabia and the eastern Mediterranean determined the site's importance in Antiquity. This paper reports about Holocene environmental change at Tayma setting the frame for the interpretation of the archaeological record. Humid conditions during the early Holocene are inferred for the Arabian Peninsula (AP) based on the investigation of sabkhas, palaeo-lakes, sand dunes, wadis, speleothems and marine sediments. Most of these climate archives are located in the southern and southeastern part of the AP, where a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) triggered increased rainfall at the onset of the Holocene. At Tayma, where the influence of the ITCZ shift can be excluded, the sedimentary infill of a sabkha basin, the micro- and macrofaunal record, a digital elevation model based on DGPS measurements, and 14C-AMS data indicate the presence of a perennial lake with a minimum depth of 13 m, a stored water volume of 1.16 107 m3 and a surface of 18.45 km2 between 10,000-9000 cal BP. Foraminiferal test malformations and the shape of sieve pores on ostracod valves were used to detect trends in palaeo-salinity and ecological stress conditions. Contraction of the lake at least after 8500 cal BP is a response to a long-term aridisation trend subsequent to the early Holocene. Based on the hydrological water balance equation, quantitative data on minimum palaeo-rainfall during the early Holocene humid period were determined. Input parameters for the equation are the minimum lake level, lake surface and lake volume during the peak of the early Holocene humid period as well as palaeo-evapotranspiration, groundwater infiltration, and surface runoff. A perennial lake in the endorheic basin of the

Drought as a Catalyst for Early Medieval European Subsistence Crises and Violence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludlow, Francis; Cook, Edward; Kostick, Conor; McCormick, Michael

2016-04-01

Tree-ring records provide one of most reliable means of reconstructing past climatic conditions, from longer-term multi-decadal fluctuations in temperature and precipitation to inter-annual variability, including years that experienced extreme weather. When combined with written records of past societal behaviour and the incidence of major societal stresses (e.g., famine, disease, and conflict), such records hold the potential to shed new light on historical interactions between climate and society. Recent years have seen the continued development of long dendroclimatic reconstructions, including, most recently the development of the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA; Cook et al., 2015) which for the first time makes available a robust reconstruction of spring-summer hydroclimatic conditions and extremes for the greater European region, including the entirety of the Dark Ages. In this paper, we examine the association between hydroclimatic extremes identified in the OWDA and well-dated reports of severe drought in early medieval European annals and chronicles, and find a clear statistical correspondence, further confirming the accuracy of the OWDA and its importance as an independent record of hydroclimatic extremes, a resource that can now be drawn upon in both paleoclimatology and studies of climatic impacts on human society. We proceed to examine the association between hydroclimatic extremes identified in the OWDA and the incidence of a range of major societal stresses (scarcity and famine, epidemic disease, and mass human mortality) drawn from an exhaustive survey of early medieval European annals and chronicles. The outcome of this comparison firmly implicates drought as a significant driver of major societal stresses during early medieval times. Using a record of the violent killings of societal elites recorded on a continuous annual basis in medieval Irish monastic annals, we further examine the role of hydroclimatic extremes as triggers in medieval violence

Lakeside Cemeteries in the Sahara: 5000 Years of Holocene Population and Environmental Change

PubMed Central

Sereno, Paul C.; Garcea, Elena A. A.; Jousse, Hélène; Stojanowski, Christopher M.; Saliège, Jean-François; Maga, Abdoulaye; Ide, Oumarou A.; Knudson, Kelly J.; Mercuri, Anna Maria; Stafford, Thomas W.; Kaye, Thomas G.; Giraudi, Carlo; N'siala, Isabella Massamba; Cocca, Enzo; Moots, Hannah M.; Dutheil, Didier B.; Stivers, Jeffrey P.

2008-01-01

Background Approximately two hundred human burials were discovered on the edge of a paleolake in Niger that provide a uniquely preserved record of human occupation in the Sahara during the Holocene (∼8000 B.C.E. to the present). Called Gobero, this suite of closely spaced sites chronicles the rapid pace of biosocial change in the southern Sahara in response to severe climatic fluctuation. Methodology/Principal Findings Two main occupational phases are identified that correspond with humid intervals in the early and mid-Holocene, based on 78 direct AMS radiocarbon dates on human remains, fauna and artifacts, as well as 9 OSL dates on paleodune sand. The older occupants have craniofacial dimensions that demonstrate similarities with mid-Holocene occupants of the southern Sahara and Late Pleistocene to early Holocene inhabitants of the Maghreb. Their hyperflexed burials compose the earliest cemetery in the Sahara dating to ∼7500 B.C.E. These early occupants abandon the area under arid conditions and, when humid conditions return ∼4600 B.C.E., are replaced by a more gracile people with elaborated grave goods including animal bone and ivory ornaments. Conclusions/Significance The principal significance of Gobero lies in its extraordinary human, faunal, and archaeological record, from which we conclude the following: The early Holocene occupants at Gobero (7700–6200 B.C.E.) were largely sedentary hunter-fisher-gatherers with lakeside funerary sites that include the earliest recorded cemetery in the Sahara.Principal components analysis of craniometric variables closely allies the early Holocene occupants at Gobero with a skeletally robust, trans-Saharan assemblage of Late Pleistocene to mid-Holocene human populations from the Maghreb and southern Sahara.Gobero was abandoned during a period of severe aridification possibly as long as one millennium (6200–5200 B.C.E).More gracile humans arrived in the mid-Holocene (5200–2500 B.C.E.) employing a diversified

Late Holocene to present climatic and anthropogenic drivers affecting wetland plant communities, Florida Everglades, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, C. E.; Willard, D. A.

2011-12-01

We synthesize the paleoecological results of dozens of sediment cores to evaluate the complex interactions of regional climate variability and anthropogenic modifications during the late Holocene affecting the development, stability, and resilience of the Florida Everglades wetlands. The Everglades is a mosaic of wetland types whose distributions are controlled by water depth, hydroperiod, fire, and substrate. External stressors could trigger shifts in the vegetation composition and change the community structure. Episodic severe periods of aridity during the late Holocene caused regional shifts in vegetation including the initiation and development of tree islands and sawgrass ridges, which became established during abrupt drought events. While the timing varies site to site, most droughts occurred during well-documented global climate events like the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. However, slough vegetation is more resilient to climate variability and quickly returns to its original composition after droughts. Twentieth century modification to the natural Everglades hydrology saw the distribution wetlands severely altered. The response was not homogeneous. Some communities were drowned by prolonged hydroperiods whereas other communities, such as marl prairies became drier. However, slough vegetation in the ridge and slough landscape did not respond to 20th century land use but instead has been sensitive to changes in precipitation associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Funk, Chris; Peterson, Pete; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Husak, Gregory; Landsfeld, Marty; Hoell, Andrew; Pedreros, Diego; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Tadesse, Tsegae;

Contributions of a Strengthened Early Holocene Monsoon and Sediment Loading to Present-Day Subsidence of the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpytchev, M.; Ballu, V.; Krien, Y.; Becker, M.; Goodbred, S.; Spada, G.; Calmant, S.; Shum, C. K.; Khan, Z.

2018-02-01

The contribution of subsidence to relative sea level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta (GBD) is largely unknown and may considerably enhance exposure of the Bengal Basin populations to sea level rise and storm surges. This paper focuses on estimating the present-day subsidence induced by Holocene sediment in the Bengal Basin and by oceanic loading due to eustatic sea level rise over the past 18 kyr. Using a viscoelastic Earth model and sediment deposition history based on in situ measurements, results suggest that massive sediment influx initiated in the early Holocene under a strengthened South Asian monsoon may have contributed significantly to the present-day subsidence of the GBD. We estimate that the Holocene loading generates up to 1.6 mm/yr of the present-day subsidence along the GBD coast, depending on the rheological model of the Earth. This rate is close to the twentieth century global mean sea level rise (1.1-1.7 mm/yr). Thus, past climate change, by way of enhanced sedimentation, is impacting vulnerability of the GBD populations.

Great Basin Archaeology During the Middle Holocene: a Reflection of Environmental Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wriston, T.

2008-12-01

Varying types of proxy data in the Great Basin of the western United States suggest that the environment changed dramatically during the mid-Holocene. Lake, marsh, and spring systems dried; and dune fields, first established at the end of the Pleistocene, where again activated as sediments were swept from drying basin lowlands. Plant communities reorganized and migrated along elevation gradients to adapt to these changing conditions, and animal populations followed. However, recent data suggests that conditions during the middle Holocene were variable. Minimally, three distinct periods can be recognized, herein named: the Initial Middle Holocene (ca. 8000 to 5800 cal yr BP), the Middle Holocene Gap (ca. 5800 to 5200 cal yr BP), and the Terminal Middle Holocene (ca. 5200 to 4000 cal yr BP). Depending on location and the type of proxy data studied, these periods can vary in their character and timing, but their sequence is increasingly recognized in records of both regional and global-scale. The Initial Middle Holocene is the driest and most volatile of the three periods, with a shift from winter-to summer-dominated precipitation, often delivered by torrential storms. Conversely, the Middle Holocene Gap is a relatively mesic interval with increased winter precipitation and cooler temperatures. A shift towards drier conditions is again evidenced during the Terminal Middle Holocene; however, conditions are never again as dry or as volatile as during the Initial Middle Holocene. The archaeological signature of the Great Basin during the middle Holocene reflects adaptation to this changing environment. During the Initial Middle Holocene, archaeological sites are relatively scarce, and when present, are near water sources substantial enough to persist through the intense drought. The uplands became a focus of sustained seasonal use for the first time as increasingly diverse resources and environments are routinely exploited. It follows that milling gear is a regular and

The current California drought through EDDI's eyes: early warning and monitoring of agricultural and hydrologic drought with the new Evaporative Demand Drought Index.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbins, M.; McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Wood, A. W.; Morton, C.; Verdin, J. P.

2015-12-01

We have developed a physically based, multi-scalar drought index—the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI)—to improve treatment of evaporative dynamics in drought monitoring. Existing popular drought indices—such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index that informs much of the US Drought Monitor (USDM)—have primarily relyied on precipitation and temperature (T) to represent hydroclimatic anomalies, leaving evaporative demand (E0) most often derived from poorly performing T-based parameterizations then used to derive actual evapotranspiration (ET) from LSMs. Instead, EDDI leverages the inter-relations of E0 and ET, measuring E0's physical response to surface drying anomalies due to two distinct land surface/atmosphere interactions: (i) in sustained drought, limited moisture availability forces E0 and ET into a complementary relation, whereby ET declines as E0 increases; and (ii) in "flash" droughts, E0 increases due to increasing advection or radiation. E0's rise in response to both drought types suggests EDDI's robustness as a monitor and leading indicator of drought. To drive EDDI, we use for E0 daily reference ET from the ASCE Standardized Reference ET equation forced by North American Land Data Assimilation System drivers. EDDI is derived by aggregating E0 anomalies from its long-term mean across a period of interest and normalizing them to a Z-score. Positive EDDI indicates drier than normal conditions (and so drought). We use the current historic California drought as a test-case in which to examine EDDI's performance in monitoring agricultural and hydrologic drought. We observe drought development and decompose the behavior of drought's evaporative drivers during in-drought intensification periods and wetting events. EDDI's performance as a drought leading indicator with respect to the USDM is tested in important agricultural regions. Comparing streamflow from several USGS gauges in the Sierra Nevada to EDDI, we find that EDDI tracks most major

From drought indicators to impacts: developing improved tools for monitoring and early warning with decision-makers in mind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannaford, Jamie; Barker, Lucy; Svensson, Cecilia; Tanguy, Maliko; Laize, Cedric; Bachmair, Sophie; Tijdeman, Erik; Stahl, Kerstin; Collins, Kevin

2016-04-01

Droughts pose a threat to water security in most climate zones and water use sectors. With projections suggesting that droughts will intensify in many parts of the globe, the magnitude of this threat is likely to increase in the future and thus vulnerability of society to drought must be reduced through better preparedness. While the occurrence of drought cannot be prevented in the short term, a number of actions can be taken to reduce vulnerability. Monitoring and early warning (M&EW) systems are often central to drought management strategies aimed at reducing vulnerability, but they are generally less developed than for other hazards. There are many drought indicators available for characterising the hazard but they have only rarely been tested for their ability to capture observed impacts on society or the environment. There is a pressing need to better integrate the physical and social vulnerability elements of drought to improve M&EW systems. The Belmont Forum project DrIVER (Drought Impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and Early-warning Research, 2014 - 2016) aims to fill this gap by strengthening the link between natural (hydrometeorological) drought characterisation and ecological and socio-economic impacts on three continents (North America, Europe and Australia). The UK is a key DrIVER case study area. The UK has a well-developed hydrological monitoring programme, but there is currently no national drought focused M&EW system; different actors (water companies, regulators, farmers or industry) typically conduct M&EW for their own particular purposes. In this paper we present the early outcomes of an extensive programme of research designed to provide a scientific foundation for improved M&EW systems for the UK in future. The UK is used here as an example, and the findings could prove useful for other localities seeking to develop M&EW systems. Firstly, we present the results of stakeholder engagement exercises designed to ascertain current use

Glacial inception during the late Holocene without carbon emissions from early agriculture: lessons from the stage-19 glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, F.; Vavrus, S. J.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Ruddiman, W. F.; Tzedakis, P. C.

2013-12-01

Decreases in orbitally-forced summer insolation along with downward trends in greenhouse gases (GHG) have been precursors to incipient glaciation in the past. In the last several thousand years of the current interglacial, while summer insolation has decreased, there was a reversal of the downward trends in CH4 and CO2 concentration within the Holocene around 5,000 and 7,000 years ago. While the cause of this reversal remains unresolved, a leading hypothesis is Ruddiman's Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis that early agriculture, starting several thousand years ago, caused emissions of GHG large enough to reverse natural downward trends in CO2 and CH4 and kept Earth's climate anomalously warm, with the corollary that this may have prevented incipient glaciation during the late Holocene. Here we use the 1-degree, fully coupled Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) with climate forcings (orbital parameters and GHG) of a previous glacial inception to investigate whether glacial inception should have occurred prior to the industrial revolution if the concentrations of CH4 and CO2 had followed their natural downward trends throughout the Holocene. Tzedakis et al. [2012] show that for the previous eight interglacials, Stage 11 and Stage 19 are the best analogs of the Holocene because of their low eccentricities, and Stage 19 is a better analog than Stage 11 for the Holocene due to the in-phase relationship between obliquity and precession. Furthermore, their study suggests that 777 ka BP (777,000 years before present) is the timing of glacial inception for Stage 19, based on the occurrence of the earliest bipolar seesaw event associated with glacial melting. Not only do the orbital parameters at 777 ka BP resemble pre-industrial conditions, but the concentrations of CO2 at that time were essentially the same as their expected 'natural' pre-industrial values in the absence of anthropogenic greenhouse emissions. Our multi-millennial coupled CCSM4 simulations show

The early Holocene humid period in the Tayma palaeolake, NW Arabian Peninsula -- A high-resolution micro-facies and geochemical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neugebauer, Ina; Plessen, Birgit; Dinies, Michèle; Engel, Max; Tjallingii, Rik; Brauer, Achim

2016-04-01

The Tayma palaeolake is a rare archive of the early Holocene humid period in northern Arabia (Dinies et al. 2015; Engel et al. 2012). Here we present a ca. 1 m thick and 500 years spanning annually laminated sediment section that was deposited in the centre of the former lake from ca. 8500 to 8000 calibrated years (cal. yrs) BP, as determined by AMS 14C dating of pollen concentrates (Dinies et al. 2015). High-resolution micro-facies analyses based on thin section microscopy, μXRF element scanning, δ18Ocarb and δ13Ccarb measurements on single carbonate laminae, as well as geochemical measurements on bulk samples for TOC, CaCO3, C/N ratio, δ18Ocarb, δ13Ccarb, δ13Corg and δ15N determination were performed in order to investigate the sedimentological and geochemical changes along the varved sequence in great detail. The finely laminated marl sediments are mainly composed of sub-mm thick laminae of endogenic aragonite, organic matter and diatoms, as well as occasional, often graded silt-clay layers. Following an early lake phase from ca. 8700 to 8500 cal. yrs BP characterized by coarsely laminated, presumably non-annual marl sediments that are rich in ostracods, three main varved phases can be distinguished within the investigated section: (1) aragonitic-organic varves from ca. 8500 to 8300 cal. yrs BP, (2) diatom-organic varves from ca. 8300 to 8100 cal. yrs BP that frequently include aragonite laminae and occasionally gastropod and ostracod shells, and (3) organic varves from ca. 8100 to 8000 cal. yrs BP with decreasing diatom and aragonite laminae and an increasing frequency of gypsum layers. After this period, gypsum becomes abundant and fine lamination appears only sporadically. In addition, we observe increasing trends of TOC, C/N and δ13Ccarb and decreasing δ18Ocarb during phase 1 and excess δ18Ocarb, δ13Ccarb and TOC values during phase 2, pointing towards the maximum lake productivity and increased seasonal precipitation. We interpret this

Remote Sensing of Drought: Progress and Opportunities for Improving Drought Monitoring and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AghaKouchak, A.; Huning, L. S.; Love, C. A.; Farahmand, A.

2017-12-01

This presentation surveys current and emerging drought monitoring approaches using satellite remote sensing observations from climatological and ecosystem perspectives. Satellite observations that are not currently used for operational drought monitoring, such as near-surface air relative humidity and water vapor, provide opportunities to improve early drought warning. Current and future satellite missions offer opportunities to develop composite and multi-indicator drought models. This presentation describes how different satellite observations can be combined for overall drought development and impact assessment. Finally, we provide an overview of the research gaps and challenges that are facing us ahead in the remote sensing of drought.

El Nino influence on Holocene reef accretion in Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rooney, J.; Fletcher, C.; Grossman, E.; Engels, M.; Field, M.

2004-01-01

New observations of reef accretion from several locations show that in Hawai'i accretion during early to middle Holocene time occurred in areas where today it is precluded by the wave regime, suggesting an increase in wave energy. Accretion of coral and coralline algae reefs in the Hawaiian Islands today is largely controlled by wave energy. Many coastal areas in the main Hawaiian Islands are periodically exposed to large waves, in particular from North Pacific swell and hurricanes. These are of sufficient intensity to prevent modern net accretion as evidenced by the antecedent nature of the seafloor. Only in areas sheltered from intense wave energy is active accretion observed. Analysis of reef cores reveals patterns of rapid early Holocene accretion in several locations that terminated by middle Holocene time, ca. 5000 yr ago. Previous analyses have suggested that changes in Holocene accretion were a result of reef growth "catching up" to sea level. New data and interpretations indicate that the end of reef accretion in the middle Holocene may be influenced by factors in addition to sea level. Reef accretion histories from the islands of Kaua'i, O'ahu, and Moloka'i may be interpreted to suggest that a change in wave energy contributed to the reduction or termination of Holocene accretion by 5000 yr ago in some areas. In these cases, the decrease in reef accretion occurred before the best estimates of the decrease in relative sea-level rise during the mid-Holocene high stand of sea level in the main Hawaiian Islands. However, reef accretion should decrease following the termination of relative sea-level rise (ca. 3000 yr ago) if reef growth were "catching up" to sea level. Evidence indicates that rapid accretion occurred at these sites in early Holocene time and that no permanent accretion is occurring at these sites today. This pattern persists despite the availability of hard substrate suitable for colonization at a wide range of depths between -30 m and the

Improved marine reservoir age estimation and palaeoclimate synchronisation of the early Holocene Levantine/NW-Arabian region based on identification of the S1 tephra in Dead Sea and Tayma palaeolake sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neugebauer, Ina; Wulf, Sabine; Schwab, Markus J.; Serb, Johanna; Plessen, Birgit; Appelt, Oona; Brauer, Achim

2017-04-01

Due to a lack of tephras identified in marine and terrestrial palaeoclimate records from the Levantine-Arabian area, this region is still not sufficiently connected to the eastern Mediterranean tephrostratigraphical lattice. Here we report on the first finding of cryptotephra in the Holocene lacustrine sediment records of the Dead Sea and the Tayma palaeolake (NW Arabian Peninsula). The major elemental chemistry of the rhyolitic glass shards proves this tephra identical to the distal 'S1 tephra' identified in the Yammoûneh palaeolake, Lebanon (Develle et al, 2009), in a marine sediment record from the SE Levantine basin (Hamann et al., 2010) and in the Sodmein Cave archaeological site in Egypt (Barton et al., 2015). The 'S1 tephra', most likely corresponding to the early Holocene 'Dikkartın' dome eruption of the Erciyes Daǧ volcano in central Anatolia, Turkey, has been dated in the marine record at 8830 ± 140 cal yr BP. We present new age estimates of the 'S1 tephra' based on radiocarbon dating of terrestrial plant remains (Migowski et al., 2004) and pollen concentrates (Dinies et al., 2015), which reveal modelled ages of 8939 ± 83 cal yr BP in the Dead Sea sediments and 9041 ± 254 cal yr BP in Tayma. This allows the estimation of an early Holocene marine reservoir age of ca. 320 years in the SE Levantine Sea. The timing of the volcanic eruption during the early Holocene humid period, which led to the formation of sapropel S1 in the Mediterranean Sea, and the identification of the 'S1 tephra' more than 1200 km to the south are crucial for the synchronisation of marine and terrestrial palaeoclimate records in the eastern Mediterranean region. References: Barton et al., 2015. The role of cryptotephra in refining the chronology of Late Pleistocene human evolution and cultural change in North Africa. Quaternary Sci. Rev. 118, 151-169. Develle et al., 2009. Early Holocene volcanic ash fallout in the Yammoûneh lacustrine basin (Lebanon): Tephrochronological

Nile Delta vegetation response to Holocene climate variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Stanley, Jean-Daniel

2012-01-01

A 7000 yr palynologic record from Burullus Lagoon, Nile Delta, Egypt, is assessed to investigate changes in terrestrial vegetation in response to Nile flow. Previous studies in this region have shown that sea-level rise in the early to mid-Holocene, and markedly increased human land use during the past several centuries, altered vegetation in and around the lagoon. The pollen record from this study documents changes in delta vegetation that likely reflect variations in Nile flow. We suggest that Cyperaceae pollen is a sensitive marker of precipitation over the Nile headwaters and the resultant Nile flow. Decreases in Cyperaceae pollen, interpreted as a marker for diminished Nile flow, as well as the increase in relative abundance of microscopic charcoal, occurred at ca. 6000–5500, ca. 5000, ca. 4200, and ca. 3000 cal. yr B.P. (calibrated years before present). These correspond to extreme regional and global aridity events associated with a more southerly mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. These changes, also recorded by other proxy studies, indicate that several marked regional drought events affected the Nile Delta region and impacted ancient Egyptian and Middle Eastern civilizations.

Drought: A comprehensive R package for drought monitoring, prediction and analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.; Cheng, Hongguang

2015-04-01

Drought may impose serious challenges to human societies and ecosystems. Due to complicated causing effects and wide impacts, a universally accepted definition of drought does not exist. The drought indicator is commonly used to characterize drought properties such as duration or severity. Various drought indicators have been developed in the past few decades for the monitoring of a certain aspect of drought condition along with the development of multivariate drought indices for drought characterizations from multiple sources or hydro-climatic variables. Reliable drought prediction with suitable drought indicators is critical to the drought preparedness plan to reduce potential drought impacts. In addition, drought analysis to quantify the risk of drought properties would provide useful information for operation drought managements. The drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis are important components in drought modeling and assessments. In this study, a comprehensive R package "drought" is developed to aid the drought monitoring, prediction and risk analysis (available from R-Forge and CRAN soon). The computation of a suite of univariate and multivariate drought indices that integrate drought information from various sources such as precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and runoff is available in the drought monitoring component in the package. The drought prediction/forecasting component consists of statistical drought predictions to enhance the drought early warning for decision makings. Analysis of drought properties such as duration and severity is also provided in this package for drought risk assessments. Based on this package, a drought monitoring and prediction/forecasting system is under development as a decision supporting tool. The package will be provided freely to the public to aid the drought modeling and assessment for researchers and practitioners.

Influence of mathematical and physical background of drought indices on their complementarity and drought recognition ability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Anna; Armenski, Tanja; Gocic, Milan; Popov, Srdjan; Popovic, Ljiljana; Trajkovic, Slavisa

2017-09-01

The aim of this study is to test how effective and physically correct are the mathematical approaches of operational indices used by relevant National Agencies across the globe. To do so, the following indices were analysed Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) -1, 3, 6, 12 and 24, Standardized Precipitation - Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) - 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24, Effective Drought Index (EDI) and Index of Drying Efficiency of Air (IDEA). To make regions more comparable to each other and follow the spatial development of drought SPI index was advised by World Meteorological Organisation to be used widely by official meteorological services. The SPI and SPEI are used for Drought Early Warning in the USA, National Drought Mitigation Center and NASA, and in the EU by the European Drought Centre (EDC) and in the Balkan Region by National Meteorological Agencies. The EDI Index has wide application in Asia. In this paper four different issues were investigated: 1) how the mathematical method used in a drought indicator's computation influence drought indices' (DI) comparative analyses; 2) the sensitivity of the DIs on any change of the length of observational period; 3) similarities between the DIs time series; 4) and how accurate DIs are when compared to historical drought records. Results suggest that it is necessary to apply a few crucial changes in the Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems: 1) reconsider use of SPI and SPEI family indices as a measure of quality of other indices; and for Drought Early Recognition Programs 2) switch to DIs with a solid physical background, such as EDI; 3) Adopt solid physics for modelling drought processes and define the physical measure of drought, e.g. EDI and IDEA indices; 4) investigate further the IDEA index, which, supported by our study as well, is valuable for simulation of a drought process.

People, lakes and seashores: Studies from the Baltic Sea basin and adjacent areas in the early and Mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groß, Daniel; Zander, Annabell; Boethius, Adam; Dreibrodt, Stefan; Grøn, Ole; Hansson, Anton; Jessen, Catherine; Koivisto, Satu; Larsson, Lars; Lübke, Harald; Nilsson, Björn

2018-04-01

During the Early and Mid-Holocene significant changes in the ecology and socio-cultural spheres occurred around the Baltic Sea. Because of the underlying climatic changes and thus environmental alterations, the area was the scene for various cultural developments during the period under investigation. In the course of the melting of the glaciers at the end of the last Ice Age, isostatic and eustatic movements caused continual changes to the Baltic Sea basin. Changes in water level, however, affected not only the Early and Mid-Holocene coastlines, but also the whole Baltic Sea drainage system, including large lakes, rivers and watersheds in the hinterland were also dramatically impacted by these ecological changes. Prehistoric people were thus affected by changes in resource availability and reduction or enlargement of their territories, respectively. In order to evaluate the impact of changes in the water and land networks on the environment, resource availability, and human behaviour, and to reconstruct human responses to these changes, we pursue an interdisciplinary approach connecting environmental and archaeological research highlighted through different case studies.

Abrupt decadal-to-centennial hydroclimate changes in the Mediterranean region since the mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Hsun-Ming; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Jiang, Xiuyang; Wang, Yongjin; Mii, Horng-Sheng; Michel, Véronique

2016-04-01

A series of severe drought events in the Mediterranean region over the past two decades has posed a threat on both human society and biosystem. Holocene hydrological dynamics can offer valuable clues for understanding future climate and making proper adaption strategy. Here, we present a decadal-resolved stalagmite record documenting various hydroclimatic fluctuations in the north central Mediterranean region since the middle Holocene. The stalagmite δ18O sequence shows dramatic instability, characterized by abrupt shifts between dry and wet conditions <50 years. The timing of regional culture demises, such as the Hittite Kingdom, Mycenaean Greece, Akkadian Empire, Egyptian Old Kingdom, and Uruk, occurred during the drought events, suggesting an important role of climate impact on human civilization. The unstable hydroclimate evolution is related to transferred North Atlantic Oscillation states. Rate of rapid transfer of precipitation patterns, which can be pin-pointed by our good chronology, improves the prediction to future climate changes in North Atlantic region. We also found that a strong correlation between this stalagmite δ18O and sea surface temperatures especially in Pacific Ocean. This agreement suggests a distant interregional climate teleconnection.

Climate and vegetation change during the Holocene in southern Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez Moreno, Gonzalo; Anderson, R. Scott; Ramos-Roman, María J.; Camuera, Jon; Garcia-Alix, Antonio; Jimenez-Espejo, FranciscoJ.; Toney, Jaime L.; Mesa-Fernandez, Jose Manuel; Manzano, Saul; Carrion, Jose S.

2017-04-01

Detailed pollen analysis has been carried out on several sediment cores taken from high-elevation alpine lakes and bog areas located in Sierra Nevada and coastal and offshore environments from southern Spain. The early Holocene is characterized in these records by the highest abundance of arboreal pollen, indicating the warmest and wettest conditions in the area at that time. The pollen records show a progressive aridification trend since the beginning of the middle Holocene through a decrease in forest species and the increase in xerophytes. The progressive aridification is punctuated by millennial-scale periodically enhanced droughts that coincide in timing and duration with well-known arid events in the Mediterranean and other areas. A relatively humid period occurred during the Iberian-Roman Humid Period. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (900-1300 AD) was characterized by a wet phase at first, coinciding with a solar minimum, and a later arid phase, coinciding with the Medieval solar Maximum and a positive NAO. The Little Ice Age (1300-1850 AD) was markedly wetter than earlier, as shown by the increase in tree pollen, coinciding with a phase of negative NAO and the Maunder solar minimum. This study shows that vegetation and climate in the Western Mediterranean are modulated by solar and atmospheric factors. Out-of-trend vegetation changes are observed in the last centuries, which probably indicate the high-impact of humans in the Sierra Nevada, with pasturing leading to nutrient enrichment and eutrophication of the wetlands, Olea cultivation at lower elevations and Pinus reforestation.

Pleistocene and Holocene geomorphological development in the Algarve, southern Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chester, David K.

2012-06-01

A detailed chronological framework for Pleistocene and Holocene geomorphology and landscape evolution in the Algarve is proposed. With regards to the Pleistocene, attention has focused on the origin, dating and stratigraphy of the Ludo Formation. Subsuming the classifications of earlier writers, it is now proposed that during the Pliocene a marine transgression occurred across a tectonically controlled basin that was constrained by the mountains of the Algarve interior to the north. Fluvial sands were then deposited in a regressive phase during the late Pliocene/early Pleistocene, while braided streams operating under semi-arid conditions subsequently laid down sands and gravels in the middle and upper Pleistocene. Lying unconformably over the Ludo Formation is an alluvial deposit (Odiáxere gravels and Loulé sands) of late Pleistocene/early Holocene date that is found within the river valleys of the Algarve. In the early-Holocene (ca.10, 000-ca.7000 BP) and early late-Holocene (ca.5000-ca.3000 BP), the situation in the Algarve was one of climatic amelioration (i.e., warmer and wetter conditions), rising sea levels, vegetation colonization, soil development and towards the end of this period trenching of the Odiáxere gravels and Loulé sands. From ca.3000 BP evidence is abundant that humans became important geomorphological agents either acting on their own or in combination with climatic factors. From around 5000 BP, conditions became dryer and, between ca.3000 BP and ca.700 BP, clearance of land by pre-Roman, Roman, and especially Islamic agricultural settlers caused widespread erosion and the deposition of extensive spreads of topsoil dominated sediment within river valleys (i.e., the Holocene terrace) and in coastal estuaries. A period followed up to 1900 CE when agricultural practices were less damaging to the soil, erosion was reduced and the Holocene terrace - together with coastal and estuarine deposits - was incised. In the past century and under

Subsistence strategies in Argentina during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez, Gustavo; Gutiérrez, María A.; Messineo, Pablo G.; Kaufmann, Cristian A.; Rafuse, Daniel J.

2016-07-01

This paper highlights regional and temporal variation in the presence and exploitation of faunal resources from different regions of Argentina during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene. Specifically, the faunal analysis considered here includes the zooarchaeological remains from all sites older than 7500 14C years BP. We include quantitative information for each reported species (genus, family, or order) and we use the number of identified specimens (NISP per taxon and the NISPtotal by sites) as the quantitative measure of taxonomic abundance. The taxonomic richness (Ntaxatotal and Ntaxaexploited) and the taxonomic heterogeneity or Shannon-Wiener index are estimated in order to consider dietary generalization or specialization, and ternary diagrams are used to categorize subsistence patterns of particular sites and regions. The archaeological database is composed of 78 sites which are represented by 110 stratigraphic contexts. Our results demonstrate that although some quantitative differences between regions are observed, artiodactyls (camelids and deer) were the most frequently consumed animal resource in Argentina. Early hunter-gatherers did not follow a specialized predation strategy in megamammals. A variety in subsistence systems, operating in parallel with a strong regional emphasis is shown, according to specific environmental conditions and cultural trajectories.

Drought monitoring and assessment: Remote sensing and modeling approaches for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senay, Gabriel; Velpuri, Naga Manohar; Bohms, Stefanie; Budde, Michael; Young, Claudia; Rowland, James; Verdin, James

2015-01-01

Drought monitoring is an essential component of drought risk management. It is usually carried out using drought indices/indicators that are continuous functions of rainfall and other hydrometeorological variables. This chapter presents a few examples of how remote sensing and hydrologic modeling techniques are being used to generate a suite of drought monitoring indicators at dekadal (10-day), monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales for several selected regions around the world. Satellite-based rainfall estimates are being used to produce drought indicators such as standardized precipitation index, dryness indicators, and start of season analysis. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index is being used to monitor vegetation condition. Several satellite data products are combined using agrohydrologic models to produce multiple short- and long-term indicators of droughts. All the data sets are being produced and updated in near-real time to provide information about the onset, progression, extent, and intensity of drought conditions. The data and products produced are available for download from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data portal at http://earlywarning.usgs.gov. The availability of timely information and products support the decision-making processes in drought-related hazard assessment, monitoring, and management with the FEWS NET. The drought-hazard monitoring approach perfected by the U.S. Geological Survey for FEWS NET through the integration of satellite data and hydrologic modeling can form the basis for similar decision support systems. Such systems can operationally produce reliable and useful regional information that is relevant for local, district-level decision making.

Holocene paleoclimate inferred from salinity histories of adjacent lakes in southwestern Sicily (Italy)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curry, B Brandon; Henne, Paul; Mezquita-Joanes, Francesc; Marrone, Federico; Pieri, Valentina; La Mantia, Tommaso; Calo, Camilla; Tinner, Willy

2016-01-01

Marked uncertainties persist regarding the climatic evolution of the Mediterranean region during the Holocene. For instance, whether moisture availability gradually decreased, remained relatively constant, or increased during the last 7000 years remains a matter of debate. To assess Holocene limnology, hydrology and moisture dynamics, the coastal lakes Lago Preola and Gorgo Basso, located in southwestern Sicily, were investigated through several stratigraphic analyses of ostracodes, including multivariate analyses of assemblages, transfer functions of salinity, and biochemical analyses of valves (Sr/Ca, δ18O and δ13C). During the early Holocene, the Gorgo Basso and Lago Preola ostracode records are similar. After an initial period of moderate salinity (1690–6100 mg/l from ca. 10,000–8190 cal yr BP), syndepositional or diagenetic dissolution of ostracode valves suggests that salinity declined to <250 mg/L from ca. 8190 to 7000 cal yr BP at both sites. After ca. 6250 cal yr BP, the ostracode records are strikingly different. Lago Preola became much more saline, with paleosalinity values that ranged from 2270 to about 24,420 mg/L. We suggest that Lago Preola's change from a freshwater to mesosaline lake at about 6250 cal yr BP was related to sea level rise and resulting intrusion of seawater-influenced groundwater. In contrast, Gorgo Basso remained a freshwater lake. The salinity of Gorgo Basso declined somewhat after 6250 cal yr BP, in comparison to the early Holocene, ranging from about 550 to 1680 mg/L. Cypria ophtalmica, a species capable of rapid swimming and flourishing in waters with low dissolved oxygen levels, became dominant at approximately the time when Greek civilization took root in Sicily (2600 cal yr BP), and it completely dominates the record during Roman occupation (roughly 2100 to 1700 cal yr BP). These freshwater conditions at Gorgo Basso suggest high effective moisture when evergreen olive-oak forests collapsed in response

Holocene paleoclimate inferred from salinity histories of adjacent lakes in southwestern Sicily (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curry, Brandon; Henne, Paul D.; Mesquita-Joanes, Francesc; Marrone, Federico; Pieri, Valentina; La Mantia, Tommaso; Calò, Camilla; Tinner, Willy

2016-10-01

Marked uncertainties persist regarding the climatic evolution of the Mediterranean region during the Holocene. For instance, whether moisture availability gradually decreased, remained relatively constant, or increased during the last 7000 years remains a matter of debate. To assess Holocene limnology, hydrology and moisture dynamics, the coastal lakes Lago Preola and Gorgo Basso, located in southwestern Sicily, were investigated through several stratigraphic analyses of ostracodes, including multivariate analyses of assemblages, transfer functions of salinity, and biochemical analyses of valves (Sr/Ca, δ18O and δ13C). During the early Holocene, the Gorgo Basso and Lago Preola ostracode records are similar. After an initial period of moderate salinity (1690-6100 mg/l from ca. 10,000-8190 cal yr BP), syndepositional or diagenetic dissolution of ostracode valves suggests that salinity declined to <250 mg/L from ca. 8190 to 7000 cal yr BP at both sites. After ca. 6250 cal yr BP, the ostracode records are strikingly different. Lago Preola became much more saline, with paleosalinity values that ranged from 2270 to about 24,420 mg/L. We suggest that Lago Preola's change from a freshwater to mesosaline lake at about 6250 cal yr BP was related to sea level rise and resulting intrusion of seawater-influenced groundwater. In contrast, Gorgo Basso remained a freshwater lake. The salinity of Gorgo Basso declined somewhat after 6250 cal yr BP, in comparison to the early Holocene, ranging from about 550 to 1680 mg/L. Cypria ophtalmica, a species capable of rapid swimming and flourishing in waters with low dissolved oxygen levels, became dominant at approximately the time when Greek civilization took root in Sicily (2600 cal yr BP), and it completely dominates the record during Roman occupation (roughly 2100 to 1700 cal yr BP). These freshwater conditions at Gorgo Basso suggest high effective moisture when evergreen olive-oak forests collapsed in response to increased Greco

Drought resistance in early and late secondary successional species from a tropical dry forest: the interplay between xylem resistance to embolism, sapwood water storage and leaf shedding

Treesearch

Fernando Pineda-Garcia; Horacio Paz; Frederick C. Meinzer

2013-01-01

The mechanisms of drought resistance that allow plants to successfully establish at different stages of secondary succession in tropical dry forests are not well understood. We characterized mechanisms of drought resistance in early and late-successional species and tested whether risk of drought differs across sites at different successional stages, and whether early...

Late Holocene droughts in the Fertile Crescent recorded in a speleothem from northern Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flohr, Pascal; Fleitmann, Dominik; Zorita, Eduardo; Sadekov, Aleksey; Cheng, Hai; Bosomworth, Matt; Edwards, Lawrence; Matthews, Wendy; Matthews, Roger

2017-02-01

Droughts have had large impacts on past and present societies. High-resolution paleoclimate data are essential to place recent droughts in a meaningful historical context and to predict regional future changes with greater accuracy. Such records, however, are very scarce in the Middle East in general, and the Fertile Crescent in particular. Here we present a 2400 year long speleothem-based multiproxy record from Gejkar Cave in northern Iraq. Oxygen and carbon isotopes and magnesium are faithful recorders of effective moisture. The new Gejkar record not only shows that droughts in 1998-2000 and 2007-2010, which have been argued to be a contributing factor to Syrian civil war, were extreme compared to the current mean climate, but they were also superimposed on a long-term aridification trend that already started around or before 950 C.E. (Common Era). This long-term trend is not captured by tree ring records and climate models, emphasizing the importance of using various paleoclimate proxy data to evaluate and improve climate models and to correctly inform policy makers about future hydroclimatic changes in this drought-prone region.

Timing of atmospheric precipitation in the Zagros Mountains inferred from a multi-proxy record from Lake Mirabad, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Lora R.; Ito, Emi; Schwalb, Antje; Wright, Herbert E.

2006-11-01

A sediment core 7.2 m long from Lake Mirabad, Iran, was examined for loss-on-ignition, mineralogy, oxygen-isotopic composition of authigenic calcite, and trace-element composition of ostracodes to complement earlier pollen and ostracode-assemblage studies. Pollen, ostracode-inferred lake level, and high Sr/Ca ratios indicate that the early Holocene (10000 to 6500 cal yr BP) was drier than the late Holocene. Low δ18O values during this interval are interpreted as resulting from winter-dominated precipitation, characteristic of a Mediterranean climate. Increasing δ18O values after 6500 cal yr BP signal a gradual increase in spring rains, which are present today. A severe 600-yr drought occurred at ca. 5500 cal yr BP, shortly after the transition from pistachio-almond to oak forest. During the late Holocene, two milder droughts occurred at about 1500 and 500 cal yr BP. Within the resolution of the record, no drought is evident during the collapse of the Akkadian empire (4200-3900 cal yr BP). Rather, a decrease in δ18O values to early-Holocene levels may indicate the return to a Mediterranean precipitation regime.

Early Holocene vegetation - climate interactions in the central part of European Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novenko, Elena; Olchev, Alexander

2017-04-01

The new Early Holocene vegetation and climate reconstruction (approximately 10100 -7800 cal. yr. BP) for the forest zone the central European Russia are based on pollen records from three key regions located in taiga, mixed coniferous-broadleaved and broadleaved forest zones. The climatic parameters (the mean annual temperature and precipitation) and total forest coverage during the early Holocene were reconstructed using the Best Modern Analogue technique. Information about moistening conditions was revealed from reconstructions of actual evapotranspiration (ET) and potential evaporation (PET). For calculation of the annual ET and PET rates of the forest landscapes a regression model was applied. The model is based on nonlinear approximations of annual values of ET and PET provided by the Levenberg-Marquardt method using the results of numerical simulations of ET and PET carried out by a Mixfor-SVAT model for the forests with different species compositions under various thermal and moistening conditions. Mixfor-SVAT is an one-dimensional model of the energy, H2O and CO2 exchange between vertically structured mono- and multi-specific forest stands and the atmosphere (Olchev et al., 2002). Obtained results showed that the considered period was characterized by relatively low air temperatures and high precipitation compared with modern conditions. Analysis of the long-term pattern of the mean annual temperature for all three regions reveal two synchronous significant cooling periods observed in 9100-9300 cal. yr. BP and 8100-8500 cal. yr. BP as well as rapid growth of the air temperature in 8100-7800 cal. yr. BP, when the annual temperatures increased by 3°C during about 300 years. The cooling phase of 8100-8500 cal. yr. BP could be corresponded to the distinct "8.2 ka event" widely recorded across Europe. Periods of climate warming are coincided with periods of precipitation rise whereas the cool phases are characterized by its decrease. The lowest ET and PET rates

Latest Pleistocene and Holocene glacier fluctuations on Mount Baker, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osborn, Gerald; Menounos, Brian; Ryane, Chanone; Riedel, Jon; Clague, John J.; Koch, Johannes; Clark, Douglas; Scott, Kevin; Davis, P. Thompson

2012-08-01

Glaciers on stratovolcanoes of the Pacific Northwest of North America offer opportunities for dating late Pleistocene and Holocene glacier advances because tephra and fossil wood are common in lateral moraines and in glacier forefields. We capitalize on this opportunity by examining the Holocene glacial record at Mount Baker, an active stratovolcano in northwest Washington. Earlier workers concluded that glaciers on Mount Baker during the early Holocene were more extensive than during the Little Ice Age and hypothesized that the explanation lay in unusual climatic or hypsometric effects peculiar to large volcanoes. We show that the main argument for an early Holocene glacier advance on Mount Baker, namely the absence of ca 10,000-year-old tephra on part of the south flank of the mountain, is incorrect. Moreover, a lake-sediment core indicates that a small cirque moraine previously thought be of early Holocene age is also likely older than the tephra and consequently of late Pleistocene age. Lateral and end moraines and wood mats ca 2 km downvalley of the present snout of Deming Glacier indicate that an advance during the Younger Dryas interval was little more extensive than the climactic Little Ice Age advance. Tephra and wood between tills in the left lateral moraine of Easton Glacier suggest that ice on Mount Baker was restricted in the early Holocene and that Neoglaciation began ca 6 ka. A series of progressively more extensive Neoglacial advances, dated to about 2.2, 1.6, 0.9, and 0.4 ka, are recorded by stacked tills in the right lateral moraine of Deming Glacier. Intervening retreats were long enough to allow establishment of forests on the moraine. Wood mats in moraines of Coleman and Easton glaciers indicate that Little Ice Age expansion began before 0.7 ka and was followed by retreat and a readvance ca 0.5 ka. Tree-ring and lichen data indicate glaciers on the south side of the mountain reached their maximum extents in the mid-1800s. The similarity between

Elucidation of Cross-Talk and Specificity of Early Response Mechanisms to Salt and PEG-Simulated Drought Stresses in Brassica napus Using Comparative Proteomic Analysis

PubMed Central

Luo, Junling; Tang, Shaohua; Peng, Xiaojue; Yan, Xiaohong; Zeng, Xinhua; Li, Jun; Li, Xiaofei; Wu, Gang

2015-01-01

To understand the cross-talk and specificity of the early responses of plants to salt and drought, we performed physiological and proteome analyses of Brassica napus seedlings pretreated with 245 mM NaCl or 25% polyethylene glycol (PEG) 6000 under identical osmotic pressure (-1.0 MPa). Significant decreases in water content and photosynthetic rate and excessive accumulation of compatible osmolytes and oxidative damage were observed in response to both stresses. Unexpectedly, the drought response was more severe than the salt response. We further identified 45 common differentially expressed proteins (DEPs), 143 salt-specific DEPs and 160 drought-specific DEPs by isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantitation (iTRAQ) analysis. The proteome quantitative data were then confirmed by multiple reaction monitoring (MRM). The differences in the proteomic profiles between drought-treated and salt-treated seedlings exceeded the similarities in the early stress responses. Signal perception and transduction, transport and membrane trafficking, and photosynthesis-related proteins were enriched as part of the molecular cross-talk and specificity mechanism in the early responses to the two abiotic stresses. The Ca2+ signaling, G protein-related signaling, 14-3-3 signaling pathway and phosphorylation cascades were the common signal transduction pathways shared by both salt and drought stress responses; however, the proteins with executive functions varied. These results indicate functional specialization of family proteins in response to different stresses, i.e., CDPK21, TPR, and CTR1 specific to phosphorylation cascades under early salt stress, whereas STN7 and BSL were specific to phosphorylation cascades under early drought stress. Only the calcium-binding EF-hand family protein and ZKT were clearly identified as signaling proteins that acted as cross-talk nodes for salt and drought signaling pathways. Our study provides new clues and insights for developing strategies to

Ocean-atmosphere interactions as drivers of mid-to-late Holocene rapid climate changes: Evidence from high-resolution stalagmite records at DeSoto Caverns, Southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aharon, Paul; Dhungana, Rajesh

2017-08-01

Oxygen and carbon isotope time-series derived from an actively growing aragonitic stalagmite in DeSoto Caverns exhibit with unusual clarity rapid hydroclimate changes in the mid-to-late Holocene. Data consist of 1884 δ18O and δ13C determinations whose chronology is anchored on 35 230Th/234U absolute dates in the interval 6.0-1.1 cal ka BP. Exceptional 18O and 13C-enrichments centered at 4.8 ± 0.14 cal ka BP likely represent the imprints of a severe drought. Isotope cycles from 4.7 to 1.3 cal ka BP, exhibit a dominant periodicity of 68 ± 4 yrs. A gradual cooling trend of ∼0.6 °C/103 yrs is attributed to a declining seasonal contrast in insolation. The synchronicity of the mega-drought in the Southeast US with the (1) termination of the African Humid Period; (ii) abrupt reduction of the North Atlantic Deep Water production, and (iii) rapid sea-ice expansion in the polar regions of both Hemispheres testifies to the global extent and rapidity of the "5 ka" event and points to the North Atlantic Deep Water variability as the likely controlling factor. The multidecadal cycles are consistent with alternating dry and wet summers occurring during a long-term switch in the seasonal rainfall amount dominance from winter to summer. The periodic summer droughts in the Southeast US support climate models that predict profound hydroclimate changes in the late Holocene governed by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The relatively short and rapid hydroclimate phase transitions documented in this study introduce a complication in the correlation of late Holocene drought events that had significant societal impacts.

Holocene aeolian activity in the Gonghe Basin, north-eastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauch, Georg; Lai, Zhongping; Lehmkuhl, Frank; Schulte, Philipp

2016-04-01

The Gonghe Basin is located on the north-eastern edge of Tibetan Plateau and has a mean altitude of 3000 m asl. With a size of 20.000 km² it is the largest intramontane Basin on the north-eastern Plateau. The well-studied Qinghai Basin is situated north of the Basin, while the drier central Plateau is further south-west. Previous research indicated an early onset of the aeolian accumulation in the Qinghai Basin at around 18 ka while in the areas further to the south-west aeolian archives date back only to the beginning of the Holocene. First new OSL ages from aeolian sand and loess indicate a intermediate timing of the aeolian accumulation in the Gonghe Basin at the transition from the late glacial to the Holocene. Late glacial and early Holocene ages of aeolian sediments were hitherto associated with wetter climate conditions caused by the strengthening of the Asian summer monsoon. Higher moisture availability resulted in an increased vegetation cover, leading to the permanent stabilization of the aeolian sediments. Under glacial climate conditions a constant remobilization of the sediments can be assumed. The new OSL ages from the Gonghe Basin indicate a progressive shift of the monsoonal strength in westward directions during the late glacial until the early Holocene.

The cultural and chronological context of early Holocene maize and squash domestication in the Central Balsas River Valley, Mexico

PubMed Central

Ranere, Anthony J.; Piperno, Dolores R.; Holst, Irene; Dickau, Ruth; Iriarte, José

2009-01-01

Molecular evidence indicates that the wild ancestor of maize is presently native to the seasonally dry tropical forest of the Central Balsas watershed in southwestern Mexico. We report here on archaeological investigations in a region of the Central Balsas located near the Iguala Valley in Guerrero state that show for the first time a long sequence of human occupation and plant exploitation reaching back to the early Holocene. One of the sites excavated, the Xihuatoxtla Shelter, contains well-stratified deposits and a stone tool assemblage of bifacially flaked points, simple flake tools, and numerous handstones and milling stone bases radiocarbon dated to at least 8700 calendrical years B.P. As reported in a companion paper (Piperno DR, et al., in this issue of PNAS), starch grain and phytolith residues from the ground and chipped stone tools, plus phytoliths from directly associated sediments, provide evidence for maize (Zea mays L.) and domesticated squash (Cucurbita spp.) in contexts contemporaneous with and stratigraphically below the 8700 calendrical years B.P. date. The radiocarbon determinations, stratigraphic integrity of Xihuatoxtla's deposits, and characteristics of the stone tool assemblages associated with the maize and squash remains all indicate that these plants were early Holocene domesticates. Early agriculture in this region of Mexico appears to have involved small groups of cultivators who were shifting their settlements seasonally and engaging in a variety of subsistence pursuits. PMID:19307573

Drought resistance in early and late secondary successional species from a tropical dry forest: the interplay between xylem resistance to embolism, sapwood water storage and leaf shedding.

PubMed

Pineda-García, Fernando; Paz, Horacio; Meinzer, Frederick C

2013-02-01

The mechanisms of drought resistance that allow plants to successfully establish at different stages of secondary succession in tropical dry forests are not well understood. We characterized mechanisms of drought resistance in early and late-successional species and tested whether risk of drought differs across sites at different successional stages, and whether early and late-successional species differ in resistance to experimentally imposed soil drought. The microenvironment in early successional sites was warmer and drier than in mature forest. Nevertheless, successional groups did not differ in resistance to soil drought. Late-successional species resisted drought through two independent mechanisms: high resistance of xylem to embolism, or reliance on high stem water storage capacity. High sapwood water reserves delayed the effects of soil drying by transiently decoupling plant and soil water status. Resistance to soil drought resulted from the interplay between variations in xylem vulnerability to embolism, reliance on sapwood water reserves and leaf area reduction, leading to a tradeoff of avoidance against tolerance of soil drought, along which successional groups were not differentiated. Overall, our data suggest that ranking species' performance under soil drought based solely on xylem resistance to embolism may be misleading, especially for species with high sapwood water storage capacity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Drought timing and local climate determine the sensitivity of eastern temperate forests to drought.

PubMed

D'Orangeville, Loïc; Maxwell, Justin; Kneeshaw, Daniel; Pederson, Neil; Duchesne, Louis; Logan, Travis; Houle, Daniel; Arseneault, Dominique; Beier, Colin M; Bishop, Daniel A; Druckenbrod, Daniel; Fraver, Shawn; Girard, François; Halman, Joshua; Hansen, Chris; Hart, Justin L; Hartmann, Henrik; Kaye, Margot; Leblanc, David; Manzoni, Stefano; Ouimet, Rock; Rayback, Shelly; Rollinson, Christine R; Phillips, Richard P

2018-06-01

Projected changes in temperature and drought regime are likely to reduce carbon (C) storage in forests, thereby amplifying rates of climate change. While such reductions are often presumed to be greatest in semi-arid forests that experience widespread tree mortality, the consequences of drought may also be important in temperate mesic forests of Eastern North America (ENA) if tree growth is significantly curtailed by drought. Investigations of the environmental conditions that determine drought sensitivity are critically needed to accurately predict ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. We matched site factors with the growth responses to drought of 10,753 trees across mesic forests of ENA, representing 24 species and 346 stands, to determine the broad-scale drivers of drought sensitivity for the dominant trees in ENA. Here we show that two factors-the timing of drought, and the atmospheric demand for water (i.e., local potential evapotranspiration; PET)-are stronger drivers of drought sensitivity than soil and stand characteristics. Drought-induced reductions in tree growth were greatest when the droughts occurred during early-season peaks in radial growth, especially for trees growing in the warmest, driest regions (i.e., highest PET). Further, mean species trait values (rooting depth and ψ 50 ) were poor predictors of drought sensitivity, as intraspecific variation in sensitivity was equal to or greater than interspecific variation in 17 of 24 species. From a general circulation model ensemble, we find that future increases in early-season PET may exacerbate these effects, and potentially offset gains in C uptake and storage in ENA owing to other global change factors. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Holocene climate changes in eastern Beringia (NW North America) - A systematic review of multi-proxy evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, Darrell S.; Axford, Yarrow L.; Henderson, Andrew C. G.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Oswald, W. Wyatt; Saenger, Casey; Anderson, R. Scott; Bailey, Hannah L.; Clegg, Benjamin; Gajewski, Konrad; Hu, Feng Sheng; Jones, Miriam C.; Massa, Charly; Routson, Cody C.; Werner, Al; Wooller, Matthew J.; Yu, Zicheng

2016-09-01

Reconstructing climates of the past relies on a variety of evidence from a large number of sites to capture the varied features of climate and the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. This review summarizes available information from diverse Holocene paleoenvironmental records across eastern Beringia (Alaska, westernmost Canada and adjacent seas), and it quantifies the primary trends of temperature- and moisture-sensitive records based in part on midges, pollen, and biogeochemical indicators (compiled in the recently published Arctic Holocene database, and updated here to v2.1). The composite time series from these proxy records are compared with new summaries of mountain-glacier and lake-level fluctuations, terrestrial water-isotope records, sea-ice and sea-surface-temperature analyses, and peatland and thaw-lake initiation frequencies to clarify multi-centennial- to millennial-scale trends in Holocene climate change. To focus the synthesis, the paleo data are used to frame specific questions that can be addressed with simulations by Earth system models to investigate the causes and dynamics of past and future climate change. This systematic review shows that, during the early Holocene (11.7-8.2 ka; 1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP), rather than a prominent thermal maximum as suggested previously, temperatures were highly variable, at times both higher and lower than present (approximate mid-20th-century average), with no clear spatial pattern. Composited pollen, midge and other proxy records average out the variability and show the overall lowest summer and mean-annual temperatures across the study region during the earliest Holocene, followed by warming over the early Holocene. The sparse data available on early Holocene glaciation show that glaciers in southern Alaska were as extensive then as they were during the late Holocene. Early Holocene lake levels were low in interior Alaska, but moisture indicators show pronounced differences across the region. The highest

Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system

PubMed Central

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

2014-01-01

Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe. PMID:25977759

Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system.

PubMed

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

2014-01-01

Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe.

Holocene glacial fluctuations in southern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynhout, S.; Sagredo, E. A.; Kaplan, M. R.; Aravena, J. C.; Martini, M. A.; Strelin, J. A.; Schaefer, J. M.

2016-12-01

Understanding the timing and magnitude of former glacier fluctuations is critical to decipher long-term climatic trends and to unravel both natural cycles and human impact on the current glacial behavior. Despite more than seven decades of research efforts, a unifying model of Holocene glacial fluctuations in Southern South America remains elusive. Here, we present the state-of-the-art regarding the timing of Holocene glacial fluctuation in southern Patagonia-Tierra del Fuego, with a focus on a new generation of high-resolution radiocarbon and 10Be surface exposure dating chronologies. Recently acquired evidence suggest that after receding from advanced Late Glacial positions, Patagonian glaciers were for the most part close to, or even behind, present ice margins during the Early Holocene. On the other hand, emerging chronologies indicate that in some areas there were extensive expansions (century scale?) that punctuated the warm interval. Subsequently, we have evidence of multiple millennial timescale glacial advances starting in the middle Holocene. Several glacial maxima are defined by moraines and other landforms from 7000 years ago to the 19th century, with a gap sometime between 4,500 and 2,500 years ago. The last set of advances began around 800-600 years ago. Although glacial activity is documented in Patagonia at the same time as the European Little Ice Age, the extent of these glacial events are less prominent than those of the mid-Holocene. The causes that may explain these glacial fluctuations remain elusive. Finally, we discuss ongoing efforts to better define the timing and extent of Holocene glaciations in southern South America, and to establish the basis to test competing hypothesis of regional Holocene climate variability.

Synthesizing diverse stakeholder needs for a drought early warning information system in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darby, L. S.; Mcnutt, C. A.; Ingram, K.; Knox, P.; Martinez, C. J.; Zierden, D.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Verdin, J. P.

2011-12-01

From fall 2009 to fall 2010 the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Program Office coordinated several stakeholder meetings in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin, which extends from Georgia into Alabama and Florida. The purpose of the meetings was to ascertain which products and services are needed by basin stakeholders for drought early warning. Drought vulnerabilities across the basin are quite diverse - from changes in salinity that harm oyster bed productivity in Apalachicola Bay, to the health of crops in the agricultural fields of the Flint River basin, to municipal water supply issues for the city of Atlanta and smaller communities along the tributaries. These, and many other vulnerabilities, exist against a backdrop of decades-long water allocation litigation among the three states. The benefits of these stakeholder meetings went beyond information gathering by serving as opportunities for communication across state lines among people with differing needs and perspectives regarding water management decisions in the basin. The meetings also provided a good opportunity for stakeholders from all three states to share lessons learned from various management perspectives during the drought that affected the basin from 2006 to 2009. Common issues and needs identified from all regions of the basin include: (1) Education and Communication - People across the basin agree that education and communication regarding drought needs improvement (e.g., definition of drought, sector-specific impacts); (2) Improved interactions with the US Army Corps of Engineers (e.g., increased data sharing and opportunities for communication between the Corps and other stakeholders); (3) Data - easier access to real-time calibrated and quality-controlled data; (4) ACF Basin-wide webinars and climate outlooks; (5) Drought Index - Can a basin-wide drought index be established?; (6) Resolve perceived discrepancies regarding groundwater (How much

Paleoecological evidence for abrupt cold reversals during peak Holocene warmth on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Yarrow; Briner, Jason P.; Miller, Gifford H.; Francis, Donna R.

2009-03-01

A continuous record of insect (Chironomidae) remains preserved in lake sediments is used to infer temperature changes at a small lake in Arctic Canada through the Holocene. Early Holocene summers at the study site were characterized by more thermophilous assemblages and warmer inferred temperatures than today, presumably in response to the positive anomaly in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Peak early Holocene warmth was interrupted by two cold reversals between 9.5 and 8 cal ka BP, during which multiple cold-stenothermous chironomid taxa appeared in the lake. The earlier reversal appears to correlate with widespread climate anomalies around 9.2 cal ka BP; the age of the younger reversal is equivocal but it may correlate with the 8.2 cal ka BP cold event documented elsewhere. Widespread, abrupt climate shifts in the early Holocene illustrate the susceptibility of the climate system to perturbations, even during periods of enhanced warmth in the Northern Hemisphere.

Application of Satellite Data for Early Season Assessment of Fallowed Agricultural Lands for Drought Impact Reporting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosevelt, C.; Melton, F. S.; Johnson, L.; Verdin, J. P.; Thenkabail, P. S.; mueller, R.; Zakzeski, A.; Jones, J.

2013-12-01

Rapid assessment of drought impacts can aid water managers in assessing mitigation options, and guide decision making with respect to requests for local water transfers, county drought disaster designations, or state emergency proclamations. Satellite remote sensing offers an efficient way to provide quantitative assessments of drought impacts on agricultural production and land fallowing associated with reductions in water supply. A key advantage of satellite-based assessments is that they can provide a measure of land fallowing that is consistent across both space and time. Here we describe an approach for monthly mapping of land fallowing developed as part of a joint effort by USGS, USDA, and NASA to provide timely assessments of land fallowing during drought events. This effort has used the Central Valley of California as a pilot region for development and testing of an operational approach. To provide quantitative measures of fallowed land from satellite data early in the season, we developed a decision tree algorithm and applied it to timeseries of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from Landsat TM, ETM+, and MODIS. Our effort has been focused on development of leading indicators of drought impacts in the March - June timeframe based on measures of crop development patterns relative to a reference period with average or above average rainfall. This capability complements ongoing work by USDA to produce and publicly release within-season estimates of fallowed acreage from the USDA Cropland Data Layer. To assess the accuracy of the algorithms, monthly ground validation surveys were conducted along transects across the Central Valley at more than 200 fields per month from March - June, 2013. Here we present the algorithm for mapping fallowed acreage early in the season along with results from the accuracy assessment, and discuss potential applications to other regions.

Transition from a warm and dry to a cold and wet climate in NE China across the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yanhong; Pancost, Richard D.; Naafs, B. David A.; Li, Qiyuan; Liu, Zhao; Yang, Huan

2018-07-01

Northeast (NE) China lies in the northernmost part of the East Asian Summer monsoon (EASM) region. Although a series of Holocene climatic records have been obtained from lakes and peats in this region, the Holocene hydrological history and its controls remain unclear. More specifically, it is currently debated whether NE China experienced a dry or wet climate during the early Holocene. Here we reconstruct changes in mean annual air temperature and peat soil moisture across the last ∼13,000 year BP using samples from the Gushantun and Hani peat, located in NE China. Our approach is based on the distribution of bacterial branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) and the abundance of the archaeal isoprenoidal (iso)GDGT crenarchaeol. Using the recently developed peat-specific MAATpeat temperature calibration we find that NE China experienced a relatively warm early Holocene (∼5-7 °C warmer than today), followed by a cooling trend towards modern-day values during the mid- and late Holocene. Moreover, crenarchaeol concentrations, brGDGT-based pH values, and the distribution of 6-methyl brGDGTs, all indicate an increase in soil moisture content from the early to late Holocene in both peats, which is largely consistent with other data from NE China. This trend towards increasing soil moisture/wetter conditions across the Holocene in NE China records contrasts with the trends observed in other parts of the EASM region, which exhibit an early and/or mid-Holocene moisture/precipitation maximum. However, the Holocene soil moisture variations and temperature-moisture relationships (warm-dry and cold-wet) observed in NE China are similar to those observed in the core area of arid central Asia which is dominated by the westerlies. We therefore propose that an increase in the intensity of the westerlies across the Holocene, driven by increasing winter insolation, expanding Arctic sea ice extent and the enhanced Okhotsk High, caused an increase in moisture

Holocene vegetation and fire history of the mountains of northern Sicily (Italy)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinner, Willy; Vescovi, Elisa; Van Leeuwen, Jacqueline; Colombaroli, Daniele; Henne, Paul; Kaltenrieder, Petra; Morales-Molino, Cesar; Beffa, Giorgia; Gnaegi, Bettina; Van der Knaap, Pim W O; La Mantia, Tommaso; Pasta, Salvatore

2016-01-01

Knowledge about vegetation and fire history of the mountains of Northern Sicily is scanty. We analysed five sites to fill this gap and used terrestrial plant macrofossils to establish robust radiocarbon chronologies. Palynological records from Gorgo Tondo, Gorgo Lungo, Marcato Cixé, Urgo Pietra Giordano and Gorgo Pollicino show that under natural or near natural conditions, deciduous forests (Quercus pubescens, Q. cerris, Fraxinus ornus, Ulmus), that included a substantial portion of evergreen broadleaved species (Q. suber, Q. ilex, Hedera helix), prevailed in the upper meso-mediterranean belt. Mesophilous deciduous and evergreen broadleaved trees (Fagus sylvatica, Ilex aquifolium) dominated in the natural or quasi-natural forests of the oro-mediterranean belt. Forests were repeatedly opened for agricultural purposes. Fire activity was closely associated with farming, providing evidence that burning was a primary land use tool since Neolithic times. Land use and fire activity intensified during the Early Neolithic at 5000 bc, at the onset of the Bronze Age at 2500 bc and at the onset of the Iron Age at 800 bc. Our data and previous studies suggest that the large majority of open land communities in Sicily, from the coastal lowlands to the mountain areas below the thorny-cushion Astragalus belt (ca. 1,800 m a.s.l.), would rapidly develop into forests if land use ceased. Mesophilous Fagus-Ilex forests developed under warm mid Holocene conditions and were resilient to the combined impacts of humans and climate. The past ecology suggests a resilience of these summer-drought adapted communities to climate warming of about 2 °C. Hence, they may be particularly suited to provide heat and drought-adaptedFagus sylvatica ecotypes for maintaining drought-sensitive Central European beech forests under global warming conditions.

Droughts in Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barber, Nancy L.; Stamey, Timothy C.

2000-01-01

Droughts do not have the immediate effects of floods, but sustained droughts can cause economic stress throughout the State. The word 'drought' has various meanings, depending on a person's perspective. To a farmer, a drought is a period of moisture deficiency that affects the crops under cultivation - even two weeks without rainfall can stress many crops during certain periods of the growing cycle. To a meteorologist, a drought is a prolonged period when precipitation is less than normal. To a water manager, a drought is a deficiency in water supply that affects water availability and water quality. To a hydrologist, a drought is an extended period of decreased precipitation and streamflow. Droughts in Georgia have severely affected municipal and industrial water supplies, agriculture, stream water quality, recreation at major reservoirs, hydropower generation, navigation, and forest resources. In Georgia, droughts have been documented at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gaging stations since the 1890's. From 1910 to 1940, about 20 streamflow gaging stations were in operation. Since the early 1950's through the late 1980's, about 100 streamflow gaging stations were in operation. Currently (2000), the USGS streamflow gaging network consists of more than 135 continuous-recording gages. Ground-water levels are currently monitored at 165 wells equipped with continuous recorders.

Drought monitoring: Historical and current perspectives

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Given the complex dimensions of drought and the challenges they pose for routine drought monitoring, it is essential that we continue to find innovative and robust ways to quantify and more effectively communicate the impacts of this hazard as part of an operational Drought Early Warning System. Th...

High Arctic Holocene temperature record from the Agassiz ice cap and Greenland ice sheet evolution

PubMed Central

Lecavalier, Benoit S.; Fisher, David A.; Milne, Glenn A.; Vinther, Bo M.; Tarasov, Lev; Lacelle, Denis; Main, Brittany; Zheng, James; Bourgeois, Jocelyne; Dyke, Arthur S.

2017-01-01

We present a revised and extended high Arctic air temperature reconstruction from a single proxy that spans the past ∼12,000 y (up to 2009 CE). Our reconstruction from the Agassiz ice cap (Ellesmere Island, Canada) indicates an earlier and warmer Holocene thermal maximum with early Holocene temperatures that are 4–5 °C warmer compared with a previous reconstruction, and regularly exceed contemporary values for a period of ∼3,000 y. Our results show that air temperatures in this region are now at their warmest in the past 6,800–7,800 y, and that the recent rate of temperature change is unprecedented over the entire Holocene. The warmer early Holocene inferred from the Agassiz ice core leads to an estimated ∼1 km of ice thinning in northwest Greenland during the early Holocene using the Camp Century ice core. Ice modeling results show that this large thinning is consistent with our air temperature reconstruction. The modeling results also demonstrate the broader significance of the enhanced warming, with a retreat of the northern ice margin behind its present position in the mid Holocene and a ∼25% increase in total Greenland ice sheet mass loss (∼1.4 m sea-level equivalent) during the last deglaciation, both of which have implications for interpreting geodetic measurements of land uplift and gravity changes in northern Greenland. PMID:28512225

Sea-level change and demography during the last glacial termination and early Holocene across the Australian continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Alan N.; Ulm, Sean; Sapienza, Tom; Lewis, Stephen; Turney, Chris S. M.

2018-02-01

Future changes in sea-level are projected to have significant environmental and social impacts, but we have limited understanding of comparable rates of change in the past. Using comprehensive palaeoenvironmental and archaeological datasets, we report the first quantitative model of the timing, spatial extent and pace of sea-level change in the Sahul region between 35-8 ka, and explore its effects on hunter-gatherer populations. Results show that the continental landmass (excluding New Guinea) increased to 9.80 million km2 during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), before a reduction of 2.12 million km2 (or ∼21.6%) to the early Holocene (8 ka). Almost 90% of this inundation occurs during and immediately following Meltwater Pulse (MWP) 1a between 14.6 and 8 ka. The location of coastlines changed on average by 139 km between the LGM and early Holocene, with some areas >300 km, and at a rate of up to 23.7 m per year (∼0.6 km land lost every 25-year generation). Spatially, inundation was highly variable, with greatest impacts across the northern half of Australia, while large parts of the east, south and west coastal margins were relatively unaffected. Hunter-gatherer populations remained low throughout (<30,000), but following MWP1a, increasing archaeological use of the landscape, comparable to a four-fold increase in populations, and indicative of large-scale migration away from inundated regions (notably the Bass Strait) are evident. Increasing population density resulting from MWP1a (from 1/655 km2 to 1/71 km2) may be implicated in the development of large and complex societies later in the Holocene. Our data support the hypothesis that late Pleistocene coastal populations were low, with use of coastal resources embedded in broad-ranging foraging strategies, and which would have been severely disrupted in some regions and at some time periods by sea-level change outpacing tolerances of mangals and other near-shore ecological communities.

Appalachian Piedmont landscapes from the Permian to the Holocene

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cleaves, E.T.

1989-01-01

Between the Potomac and Susquehanna Rivers and from the Blue Ridge to the Fall Zone, landscapes of the Piedmont are illustrated for times in the Holocene, Late Wisconsin, Early Miocene, Early Cretaceous, Late Triassic, and Permian. Landscape evolution took place in tectonic settings marked by major plate collisions (Permian), arching and rifting (Late Triassic) and development of the Atlantic passive margin by sea floor spreading (Early Cretaceous). Erosion proceeded concurrently with tectonic uplift and continued after cessation of major tectonic activity. Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf sediments record three major erosional periods: (1) Late Triassic-Early Jurassic; (2) Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous; and (3) Middle Miocene-Holocene. The Middle Miocene-Holocene pulse is related to neotectonic activity and major climatic fluctuations. In the Piedmont upland the Holocene landscape is interpreted as an upland surface of low relief undergoing dissection. Major rivers and streams are incised into a landscape on which the landforms show a delicate adjustment to rock lithologies. The Fall Zone has apparently evolved from a combination of warping, faulting, and differential erosion since Late Miocene. The periglacial environment of the Late Wisconsin (and earlier glacial epochs) resulted in increased physical erosion and reduced chemical weathering. Even with lowered saprolitization rates, geochemical modeling suggests that 80 m or more of saprolite may have formed since Late Miocene. This volume of saprolite suggests major erosion of upland surfaces and seemingly contradicts available field evidence. Greatly subdued relief characterized the Early Miocene time, near the end of a prolonged interval of tropical morphogenesis. The ancestral Susquehanna and Potomac Rivers occupied approximately their present locations. In Early Cretaceous time local relief may have been as much as 900 m, and a major axial river draining both the Piedmont and Appalachians flowed southeast

Reconstructing early 17th century estuarine drought conditions from Jamestown oysters.

PubMed

Harding, Juliana M; Spero, Howard J; Mann, Roger; Herbert, Gregory S; Sliko, Jennifer L

2010-06-08

Oysters (Crassostrea virginica) were a central component of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem in 1607 when European settlers established Jamestown, VA, the first permanent English settlement in North America. These estuarine bivalves were an important food resource during the early years of the James Fort (Jamestown) settlement while the colonists were struggling to survive in the face of inadequate supplies and a severe regional drought. Although oyster shells were discarded as trash after the oysters were eaten, the environmental and ecological data recorded in the bivalve geochemistry during shell deposition remain intact over centuries, thereby providing a unique window into conditions during the earliest Jamestown years. We compare oxygen isotope data from these 17th century oyster shells with modern shells to quantify and contrast estuarine salinity, season of oyster collection, and shell provenance during Jamestown colonization (1609-1616) and the 21st century. Data show that oysters were collected during an extended drought between fall 1611 and summer 1612. The drought shifted the 14 psu isohaline above Jamestown Island, facilitating individual oyster growth and extension of oyster habitat upriver toward the colony, thereby enhancing local oyster food resources. Data from distinct well layers suggest that the colonists also obtained oysters from reefs near Chesapeake Bay to augment oyster resources near Jamestown Island. The oyster shell season of harvest reconstructions suggest that these data come from either a 1611 well with a very short useful period or an undocumented older well abandoned by late 1611.

Holocene palaeoenvironmental history of the Amazonian mangrove belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Marcelo Cancela Lisboa; Pessenda, Luiz Carlos Ruiz; Behling, Hermann; de Fátima Rossetti, Dilce; França, Marlon Carlos; Guimarães, José Tasso Felix; Friaes, Yuri; Smith, Clarisse Beltrão

2012-11-01

Wetland dynamic in the northern Brazilian Amazon region during the Holocene was reviewed using palynological, carbon and nitrogen isotopes records, and C/N ratio previously published. The integration of 72 radiocarbon dates recorded in 34 sediment cores sampled along the marine and fluvial littoral, and mainly influenced by the Amazon River, reveals that marine influence and mangrove vegetation were wider than today on the mouth of Amazon River between >8990-8690 and 2300-2230 cal yr BP, forming a continuous mangrove belt along the northern Brazilian Amazon littoral. The establishment of this mangrove strip is a direct consequence of the marine incursion caused by post-glacial sea-level rise possibly associated with tectonic subsidence during the Early and Middle Holocene. In the Late Holocene, in areas influenced by the Amazon River discharge, the mangroves were replaced by freshwater vegetation, and the coast morphology evolved from an estuarine dominated into a rectilinear coast due to coastal progradation. Nevertheless, the marine-influenced littoral, which is currently dominated by mangroves and salt-marsh vegetation, has persistently had brackish water vegetation over tidal mud flats throughout the entire Holocene. Likely, the fragmentation of this continuous mangrove line during the Late Holocene was caused by the increase of river freshwater discharge associated to the change from dry into wet climates in the Late Holocene. This caused a significant decrease of tidal water salinity in areas near the mouth of Amazon River. These changes in the Amazon discharge are probably associated with dry and wet periods in the northern Amazon region during the Holocene.

Role of ice sheet dynamics in the collapse of the early-Holocene Laurentide Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matero, I. S. O.; Gregoire, L. J.; Cornford, S. L.; Ivanovic, R. F.

2017-12-01

The last stage of the deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the early Holocene Thermal Maximum ( 9000 to 7000 years ago) provides an analogy and insight to the possible responses of contemporary ice sheets in a warming climate. What makes LIS particularly interesting is that meltwater from the collapse of an ice saddle over Hudson Bay was recently shown to be the primary forcing for the period of abrupt northern hemisphere cooling known as the 8.2 ka event. The evolution of the LIS during this period was likely influenced by its interaction with marginal lakes and the ocean, and its major ice stream, which exported ice towards Hudson Strait. Accurately simulating the early Holocene LIS evolution thus requires a model such as BISICLES, capable of accurately and efficiently resolving ice stream dynamics and grounding line migration thanks to the combined use of higher order physics and adaptive mesh refinement. We drive the BISICLES model using a positive degree day mass balance scheme with monthly precipitation and temperature from the HadCM3 climate model under climatic conditions from 10,000 to 8,000 years ago. We test the effect of varying the initial topographies and ice thicknesses from different timeslices in the ICE-6Gc reconstruction. We also test different parameterisations for the basal friction based on the thicknesses of the underlying sediments. These simulations evaluate the role of the Hudson Strait ice stream, ice sheet dynamics and interactions with the adjacent proglacial Lake Agassiz and North Atlantic Ocean in the collapse of the LIS. Our results highlight that the choice of parameterisation for basal friction has major effects on ice sheet dynamics and evolution.

Temporal and spatial patterns of Holocene dune activity on the Great Plains of North America: megadroughts and climate links

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forman, Steven L.; Oglesby, Robert; Webb, Robert S.

2001-05-01

The Holocene record of eolian sand and loess deposition is reviewed for numerous presently stabilized dune fields on the Great Plains of North America. Dune field activity reflects decade-to-century-scale dominance of drought that exceeded historic conditions, with a growing season deficit of precipitation >25%. The largest dune fields, the Nebraska Sand Hills and ergs in eastern Colorado, Kansas and the Southern High Plains showed peak activity sometime between ca. 7 and 5 cal. ka. Loess deposition between ca. 10 and 4 cal. ka also signifies widespread aridity. Most dune fields exhibit evidence for one or more reactivation events sometime in the past 2 cal. ka; a number of localities register two events post 1 cal. ka, the latest potentially after 1400 AD. However, there is not a clear association of the latest dune remobilization events with up to 13 droughts in the past 2 cal. ka identified in dendroclimatic and lacustrine records. Periods of persistent drought are associated with a La Niña-dominated climate state, with cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and later of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico that significantly weakens cyclogenesis over central North America. As drought proceeds, reduced soil moisture and vegetation cover would lessen evaporative cooling and increase surface temperatures. These surface changes strengthen the eastward expansion of a high-pressure ridge aloft and shift the jet stream northward, further enhancing continent-wide drought. Uncertainty persists if dune fields will reactivate in the future at a scale similar to the Holocene because of widespread irrigation, the lack of migratory bison herds, and the suppression of prairie fires, all of which enhance stabilization of dune fields in the Great Plains.

Drought impact functions as intermediate step towards drought damage assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmair, Sophie; Svensson, Cecilia; Prosdocimi, Ilaria; Hannaford, Jamie; Helm Smith, Kelly; Svoboda, Mark; Stahl, Kerstin

2016-04-01

provinces with good data availability. Impact functions representing localized drought impacts are more challenging to construct given that less data is available, yet may provide information that more directly addresses stakeholders' needs. Overall, our study contributes insights into how drought intensity translates into ecological and socioeconomic impacts, and how such information may be used for enhancing drought monitoring and early warning.

Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to be used in early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, G.; Barbosa, P.; Garrote, L.; Iglesias, A.; Vogt, J.

2014-05-01

compared with drought disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database. Even if a cause-effect relationship cannot be established between the DVI and the drought disaster database, a good agreement is observed between the drought vulnerability maps and the number of persons affected by droughts. These results are expected to contribute to the discussion on how to assess drought vulnerability and hopefully contribute to the development of drought early warning systems in Africa.

Late Glacial to Early Holocene socio-ecological responses to climatic instability within the Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-López de Pablo, Javier; Jones, Samantha E.; Burjachs, Francesc

2018-03-01

The period spanning the Late Glacial and the Early Holocene (≈19-8.2 ka) witnessed a dramatic sequence of climate and palaeoenvironmental changes (Rasmussen et al., 2014). Interestingly, some of the most significant transformations ever documented in human Prehistory took place during this period such as the intensification of hunter-gatherer economic systems, the domestication process of wild plants and animals, and the spread of farming across Eurasia. Understanding the role of climate and environmental dynamics on long-term cultural and economic trajectories, as well as specific human responses to episodes of rapid climate change, still remains as one of the main challenges of archaeological research (Kintigh et al., 2014).

Climate variability during the Holocene inferred from northeastern Iberian speleothems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, A.; Bartolomé, M.; Sancho, C.; Belmonte, Á.; Stoll, H.; Cacho, I.; Edwards, R. L.; Hellstrom, J.

2012-04-01

Although the general climate trends during the Holocene in the Iberian Peninsula have been well described after the study of marine and lacustrine records, many questions regarding the timing of some of the events together with the characterization of the higher-frequency climate variability are still poorly understood. New speleothem records from several caves in northeastern Iberia provide data to explore Holocene climate changes. The selected caves are located in a latitudinal transect from the Pyrenees to the Iberian Range and placed at different altitude. Two of them, 5 de Agosto and Pot au Feu, belong to the same karstic complex in Cotiella massif (Central Pyrenees, 1600 m asl). Seso Cave, also in the Central Pyrenees but at 781 m of altitude, and Molinos cave, a cavity very rich in speleothems located at 1040 m in the Iberian Range, complete the transect. Although in all the caves precipitation coming from Atlantic fronts dominates over the year, a significant Mediterranean influence, specially in summer months, is identified after rainfall monitoring. Speleothem formation during the Holocene occurred at a very low pace in 5 de Agosto cave (80yrs/mm) and increased dramatically at low-altitude caves and during particular periods proved to be wetter (eg. Early Holocene in Molinos cave, less than 10yr/mm). In Seso and Pot au Feu caves, up to seven studied speleothems only grew during short climatic events such as the Iron Cold Period (3000-2500 cal yr BP) or the Little Ice Age (1300-1850 yr AD) that, although cold, were particularly humid periods in northeastern Spain. First stable isotope results highlight the importance of comparing speleothems with similar growing rates and from the same cave to extract climate information and discard other influences. From the integration of four stalagmites from Molinos cave covering since the Holocene onset to 2000 cal yrs BP, the Early Holocene (11.7-8.5 ka BP) with d13C values between -11 and - 9‰ appears as the

Develop an early warning climate indicator to support the Nation's resilience to 'flash' droughts over the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; YANG, Z.; Solis, R.

2013-12-01

'Flash' droughts refer to those droughts that intensify rapidly in spring and summer, coupled with a strong increase of summer extreme temperatures, such as those that occurred over Texas in 2011 and the Great Plains in 2012. These droughts represent a great threat to North American water security. Climate models have failed to predict these 'flash' droughts and are ambiguous in projecting their future changes largely because of models' weaknesses in predicting summer rainfall and soil moisture feedbacks. By contrast, climate models are more reliable in simulating changes of large-scale circulation and warming of temperatures during the winter and spring seasons. We present a prototype of an early warning indicator for the risk of 'flash' droughts in summer by using the large-scale circulation and land surface conditions in winter and spring based on observed relationships between these conditions and their underlying physical mechanisms established by previous observations and numerical model simulations. This prototype 'flash' drought indicator (IFDW) currently uses global and regional reanalysis products (e.g., CFSR, MERRA, NLDAS products) in winter and spring to provide an assessment of summer drought severity similar to drought severity indices like PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index), SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) etc., provided by the National Integrated Drought Information Center (NIDIS) with additional information about uncertainty and past probability distributions of IFDW. Preliminary evaluation of hindcasts suggests that the indicator captures the occurrences of all the regional severe to extreme summer droughts during the past 63 years (1949-2011) over the US Great Plains, and 95% of the drought ending. This prototype IFDW has several advantages over the available drought indices that simply track local drought conditions in the past, present and future: 1) It mitigates the weakness of current climate models in predicting future summer droughts

Holocene warming in western continental Eurasia driven by glacial retreat and greenhouse forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Jonathan L.; Lachniet, Matthew S.; Chervyatsova, Olga; Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor J.

2017-06-01

The global temperature evolution during the Holocene is poorly known. Whereas proxy data suggest that warm conditions prevailed in the Early to mid-Holocene with subsequent cooling, model reconstructions show long-term warming associated with ice-sheet retreat and rising greenhouse gas concentrations. One reason for this contradiction could be the under-representation of indicators for winter climate in current global proxy reconstructions. Here we present records of carbon and oxygen isotopes from two U-Th-dated stalagmites from Kinderlinskaya Cave in the southern Ural Mountains that document warming during the winter season from 11,700 years ago to the present. Our data are in line with the global Holocene temperature evolution reconstructed from transient model simulations. We interpret Eurasian winter warming during the Holocene as a response to the retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets until about 7,000 years ago, and to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and winter insolation thereafter. We attribute negative δ18O anomalies 11,000 and 8,200 years ago to enhanced meltwater forcing of North Atlantic Ocean circulation, and a rapid decline of δ13C during the Early Holocene with stabilization after about 10,000 years ago to afforestation at our study site. We conclude that winter climate dynamics dominated Holocene temperature evolution in the continental interior of Eurasia, in contrast to regions more proximal to the ocean.

Climate Controls on Last Glacial Maximum to Early Holocene Glacier Extents in the Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda-Democratic Republic of Congo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, M. S.; Kelly, M. A.; Russell, J. M.; Baber, M.; Loomis, S. E.

2014-12-01

The climate controls on past and present tropical glacier fluctuations are unclear. Here we present a chronology of past glacial extents in the Rwenzori Mountains (~1ºN, 30ºE), on the border of Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and compare this with local and regional paleoclimate records to infer the climate controls on glaciation. The Rwenzori Mountains host the most extensive glacial system in Africa and are composed of quartz-rich bedrock lithologies, enabling 10Be dating. Our dataset includes thirty 10Be ages of boulders on moraines estimated to have been deposited between the end of the last glacial period and early Holocene time. In the Mubuku Valley, eight 10Be ages of large (~50-150 m relief) lateral moraines that extend down to ~2000 m asl indicate that deposition occurred at ~23.4 ka (n=4) and ~20.1 ka (n=4), contemporaneously with the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Local and regional paleoclimate records document dry, cool conditions in East Africa during this time. Therefore, we suggest that cooler temperatures were a primary influence on the LGM glacial extents. Upvalley from these samples, six 10Be ages of boulders on moraines (between 3450 and 3720 m asl) document stillstands or readvances of glacier ice at ~14.3 ka (n=2), ~13.2 ka (n=2), and ~11.1 ka (n=2). In the nearby Nyagumasani Valley sixteen 10Be ages of boulders on moraines at similar elevations (3870-4020 m asl) indicate stillstands or readvances at ~11.5 ka (n=4), ~10.6 ka (n=4), and ~10.5 ka (n=4). Local and regional paleoclimate records indicate dry conditions during Younger Dryas time, wet conditions during early Holocene time, and no significant late-glacial temperature reversal. Thus, the relationship between glacier advance and climate conditions during late-glacial time remains enigmatic. We continue to develop the moraine chronology in order to improve our interpretations of climate controls on glacier fluctuations during late-glacial to early Holocene time.

Inter-group violence among early Holocene hunter-gatherers of West Turkana, Kenya.

PubMed

Mirazón Lahr, M; Rivera, F; Power, R K; Mounier, A; Copsey, B; Crivellaro, F; Edung, J E; Maillo Fernandez, J M; Kiarie, C; Lawrence, J; Leakey, A; Mbua, E; Miller, H; Muigai, A; Mukhongo, D M; Van Baelen, A; Wood, R; Schwenninger, J-L; Grün, R; Achyuthan, H; Wilshaw, A; Foley, R A

2016-01-21

The nature of inter-group relations among prehistoric hunter-gatherers remains disputed, with arguments in favour and against the existence of warfare before the development of sedentary societies. Here we report on a case of inter-group violence towards a group of hunter-gatherers from Nataruk, west of Lake Turkana, which during the late Pleistocene/early Holocene period extended about 30 km beyond its present-day shore. Ten of the twelve articulated skeletons found at Nataruk show evidence of having died violently at the edge of a lagoon, into which some of the bodies fell. The remains from Nataruk are unique, preserved by the particular conditions of the lagoon with no evidence of deliberate burial. They offer a rare glimpse into the life and death of past foraging people, and evidence that warfare was part of the repertoire of inter-group relations among prehistoric hunter-gatherers.

Pollen evidence for a mid-Holocene East Asian summer monsoon maximum in northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Ruilin; Xiao, Jule; Fan, Jiawei; Zhang, Shengrui; Yamagata, Hideki

2017-11-01

There is a controversy regarding whether the high precipitation delivered by an intensified East Asian summer monsoon occurred during the early Holocene, or during the middle Holocene, especially in the context of the monsoonal margin region. The conflicting views on the subject may be caused by chronological uncertainties and ambiguities in the interpretation of different climate proxies measured in different sedimentary sequences. Here, we present a detailed record of the Holocene evolution of vegetation in northern China based on a high-resolution pollen record from Dali Lake, located near the modern summer monsoon limit. From 12,000-8300 cal BP, the sandy land landscape changed from desert to open elm forest and shrubland, while dry steppe dominated the hilly lands and patches of birch forest developed in the mountains. Between 8300 and 6000 cal BP, elm forest was extensively distributed in the sandy lands, while typical steppe covered the hilly lands and mixed coniferous-broadleaved forests expanded in the mountains. Our pollen evidence contradicts the view that the monsoonal rainfall increased during the early Holocene; rather, it indicates that the East Asian summer monsoon did not become intensified until ∼8000 cal BP in northern China. The low precipitation during the early Holocene can be attributed to the boundary conditions, i.e., to the remnant high-latitude Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the relatively low global sea level.

Holocene carbon dynamics at the forest-steppe ecotone of southern Siberia.

PubMed

Mackay, Anson William; Seddon, Alistair W R; Leng, Melanie J; Heumann, Georg; Morley, David W; Piotrowska, Natalia; Rioual, Patrick; Roberts, Sarah; Swann, George E A

2017-05-01

The forest-steppe ecotone in southern Siberia is highly sensitive to climate change; global warming is expected to push the ecotone northwards, at the same time resulting in degradation of the underlying permafrost. To gain a deeper understanding of long-term forest-steppe carbon dynamics, we use a highly resolved, multiproxy, palaeolimnological approach, based on sediment records from Lake Baikal. We reconstruct proxies that are relevant to understanding carbon dynamics including carbon mass accumulation rates (CMAR; g C m -2  yr -1 ) and isotope composition of organic matter (δ 13 C TOC ). Forest-steppe dynamics were reconstructed using pollen, and diatom records provided measures of primary production from near- and off-shore communities. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to identify significant change points in temporal series, and by applying generalized linear least-squares regression modelling to components of the multiproxy data, we address (1) What factors influence carbon dynamics during early Holocene warming and late Holocene cooling? (2) How did carbon dynamics respond to abrupt sub-Milankovitch scale events? and (3) What is the Holocene carbon storage budget for Lake Baikal. CMAR values range between 2.8 and 12.5 g C m -2  yr -1 . Peak burial rates (and greatest variability) occurred during the early Holocene, associated with melting permafrost and retreating glaciers, while lowest burial rates occurred during the neoglacial. Significant shifts in carbon dynamics at 10.3, 4.1 and 2.8 kyr bp provide compelling evidence for the sensitivity of the region to sub-Milankovitch drivers of climate change. We estimate that 1.03 Pg C was buried in Lake Baikal sediments during the Holocene, almost one-quarter of which was buried during the early Holocene alone. Combined, our results highlight the importance of understanding the close linkages between carbon cycling and hydrological processes, not just temperatures, in southern Siberian environments

Pluvials, Droughts, the Mongol Empire, and Modern Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hessl, A. E.; Pederson, N.; Baatarbileg, N.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2013-12-01

Understanding the connections between climate, ecosystems, and society during historical and modern climatic transitions requires annual resolution records with high fidelity climate signals. Many studies link the demise of complex societies with deteriorating climate conditions, but few have investigated the connection between climate, surplus energy, and the rise of empires. Inner Asia in the 13th century underwent a major political transformation requiring enormous energetic inputs that altered human history. The Mongol Empire, centered on the city of Karakorum, became the largest contiguous land empire in world history (Fig. 1 inset). Powered by domesticated grazing animals, the empire grew at the expense of sedentary agriculturalists across Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. Although some scholars and conventional wisdom agree that dry conditions spurred the Mongol conquests, little paleoenvironmental data at annual resolution are available to evaluate the role of climate in the development of the Mongol Empire. Here we present a 2600 year tree-ring reconstruction of warm-season, self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), a measure of water balance, derived from 107 live and dead Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) trees growing on a Holocene lava flow in central Mongolia. Trees growing on the Khorgo lava flow today are stunted and widely spaced, occurring on microsites with little to no soil development. These trees are extremely water-stressed and their radial growth is well-correlated with both drought (scPDSI) and grassland productivity (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)). Our reconstruction, calibrated and validated on instrumental June-September scPDSI (1959-2009) accounts for 55.8% of the variability in the regional scPDSI when 73% of the annual rainfall occurs. Our scPDSI reconstruction places historic and modern social change in Mongolia in the context of the range of climatic variability during the Common Era. Our record

A high resolution history of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation and of the solar activity during the Late Glacial - Early Holocene in the subtropical Andean region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giralt, S.; Schimmel, M.; Hernández, A.; Bao, R.; Valero-Garcés, B. L.; Sáez, A.; Pueyo, J. J.

2009-04-01

High-resolution laminated lacustrine sediments are excellent archives of the past hydrological changes and they provide valuable insights about the climatic processes that trigger these changes. The paleoclimatic records located in the Southern Hemisphere are fundamental for understanding the evolution of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since this climatic phenomena is the main cause of droughts and floods in many areas of South America and other regions of the world, like Spain and Egypt. Available regional paleoclimate reconstructions show that modern climatic patterns in South America were established during the Late Holocene. The laminated sediments of Lago Chungará (18° 15' S - 69° 10' W, 4520 m a.s.l., Chilean altiplano) have allowed us to characterize the evolution of this climatic phenomena for the transition Late Glacial - Early Holocene (12,300 - 9,500 calendar years BP) as well as its relationship with other climate forcings, namely the solar activity. The studied sediments correspond to the lowermost 2.4 m of 8 m long Kullemberg cores recovered from this lake. These sediments are mainly made up of greenish and whitish laminae and thin layers constituted by diatomaceous oozes with carbonates and organic matter, arranged in rhythms and cycles. X-ray fluorescence (XRF) (Al, Si, S, K, Ca, Ti, Mn, Fe, Rb, Sr, Zn, Sb and Ba) analyses, total organic carbon (TOC), total carbon (TC), x-ray diffraction (XRD), biogenic silica, stable isotopes (delta18O and delta13C) on carbonates and on diatoms (delta18O) and magnetic susceptibility were determined in order to characterize the sediments of Lago Chungará. Previous statistical studies (cluster and Principal Component Analyses (PCA)) were used to disentangle the paleoclimatic signal from the other ones (volcanic and tectonic). The chronological model framework was built using 6 radiocarbon dates, allowing us to establish that laminated couplets were deposited on a pluriannual basis. These couplets are

Insight into the latitudinal distribution of methane emissions throughout the Holocene from ice core methane records.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sowers, T. A.; Vladimirova, D.; Blunier, T.

2017-12-01

During the preAnthropogenic era (prior to 1600AD) the interpolar CH4 gradient (IPG) is effectively dictated by the ratio of tropical to Pan Arctic CH4 emissions. IPG records from ice cores in Greenland and Antarctica provide fundamental information for assessing the latitudinal distribution of CH4 emissions and their relation to global climate change. We recently constructed a high-resolution (100yr) record of IPG changes throughout the Holocene using the ReCAP (E. Greenland) and WAIS (W. Antarctica) ice cores. Contemporaneous samples from both cores were analyzed on the same day to minimize analytical uncertainties associated with IPG reconstructions. CH4results from the WAIS core were indistinguishable from previous results suggesting our analytical scheme was intact (± 3ppb). Our reconstructed IPG showed early Holocene IPG values of 65ppb declining throughout the Holocene to values approximating 45 ppb during the latest portion of the Holocene (preAnthropogenic). We then utilized an eight box atmospheric methane box model (EBAMM) to quantify emission scenarios that agree with ice core CH4 records (concentration, IPG and isotopic composition). Our results are consistent with the idea that early Holocene peatland development in the PanArctic regions followed glacier retreat near the end of the last glacial termination contributing an additional 20Tg of CH4/yr relative to the late Holocene. In addition, we had to invoke elevated biomass burning emissions (40Tg/yr) during the early Holocene to account for the elevated d13CH4 values.

Holocene climate changes in eastern Beringia (NW North America) – A systematic review of multi-proxy evidence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaufman, Darrell S.; Axford, Yarrow L.; Henderson, Andrew C.G.; McKay, Nicolas P.; Oswald, W. Wyatt; Saenger, Casey; Anderson, R. Scott; Bailey, Hannah L.; Clegg, Benjamin; Gajewski, Konrad; Hu, Feng Sheng; Jones, Miriam C.; Massa, Charly; Routson, Cody C.; Werner, Al; Wooller, Matthew J.; Yu, Zicheng

2016-01-01

Reconstructing climates of the past relies on a variety of evidence from a large number of sites to capture the varied features of climate and the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. This review summarizes available information from diverse Holocene paleoenvironmental records across eastern Beringia (Alaska, westernmost Canada and adjacent seas), and it quantifies the primary trends of temperature- and moisture-sensitive records based in part on midges, pollen, and biogeochemical indicators (compiled in the recently published Arctic Holocene database, and updated here to v2.1). The composite time series from these proxy records are compared with new summaries of mountain-glacier and lake-level fluctuations, terrestrial water-isotope records, sea-ice and sea-surface-temperature analyses, and peatland and thaw-lake initiation frequencies to clarify multi-centennial- to millennial-scale trends in Holocene climate change. To focus the synthesis, the paleo data are used to frame specific questions that can be addressed with simulations by Earth system models to investigate the causes and dynamics of past and future climate change. This systematic review shows that, during the early Holocene (11.7–8.2 ka; 1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP), rather than a prominent thermal maximum as suggested previously, temperatures were highly variable, at times both higher and lower than present (approximate mid-20th-century average), with no clear spatial pattern. Composited pollen, midge and other proxy records average out the variability and show the overall lowest summer and mean-annual temperatures across the study region during the earliest Holocene, followed by warming over the early Holocene. The sparse data available on early Holocene glaciation show that glaciers in southern Alaska were as extensive then as they were during the late Holocene. Early Holocene lake levels were low in interior Alaska, but moisture indicators show pronounced differences across the region. The highest

Tracking Nile Delta Vulnerability to Holocene Change

PubMed Central

Marriner, Nick; Flaux, Clément; Morhange, Christophe; Stanley, Jean-Daniel

2013-01-01

Understanding deltaic resilience in the face of Holocene climate change and human impacts is an important challenge for the earth sciences in characterizing the full range of present and future wetland responses to global warming. Here, we report an 8000-year mass balance record from the Nile Delta to reconstruct when and how this sedimentary basin has responded to past hydrological shifts. In a global Holocene context, the long-term decrease in Nile Delta accretion rates is consistent with insolation-driven changes in the ‘monsoon pacemaker’, attested throughout the mid-latitude tropics. Following the early to mid-Holocene growth of the Nile’s deltaic plain, sediment losses and pronounced erosion are first recorded after ~4000 years ago, the corollaries of falling sediment supply and an intensification of anthropogenic impacts from the Pharaonic period onwards. Against the backcloth of the Saharan ‘depeopling’, reduced river flow underpinned by a weakening of monsoonal precipitation appears to have been particularly conducive to the expansion of human activities on the delta by exposing productive floodplain lands for occupation and irrigation agriculture. The reconstruction suggests that the Nile Delta has a particularly long history of vulnerability to extreme events (e.g. floods and storms) and sea-level rise, although the present sediment-starved system does not have a direct Holocene analogue. This study highlights the importance of the world’s deltas as sensitive archives to investigate Holocene geosystem responses to climate change, risks and hazards, and societal interaction. PMID:23922692

Role of the mid-Holocene environmental transition in the decline of late Neolithic cultures in the deserts of NE China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Licheng; Xiong, Shangfa; Ding, Zhongli; Jin, Guiyun; Wu, Jiabin; Ye, Wei

2018-06-01

The mid-Holocene environmental transition was characterised by global cooling and the abrupt weakening of the Northern Hemisphere monsoon systems. It is generally considered the key driver of the collapse of several mid-Holocene agricultural societies, on a global scale. However, only a few previous studies have tried to verify the climatic origin of the collapse of these societies, using the compilation of spatiotemporal data at a large scale. Especially, the nature of mid-Holocene human-environment interactions in the climatically-sensitive margin of the East Asian summer monsoon front remains to be thoroughly understood. However, a systematic compilation of archaeological data at a regional scale can be used to verify the role the mid-Holocene environmental transition played in the collapse of late Neolithic cultures in China. Here, we present a regional compilation of Holocene records from sub-aerial sedimentary deposits, lake sediments, and archaeological sites in the deserts of NE China and the adjacent regions to explore human-environment interactions during the mid-Holocene. Comparison of the records of Holocene climate change with the evolution of archaeological sites reveals that the mid-Holocene environmental transition resulted in ecosystem degradation in the deserts of NE China, rendering these areas much less habitable. Faced with substantially increased environmental pressures, the late Neolithic inhabitants used several subsistence strategies to adapt to the environmental transition, including change in agricultural practices and ultimately migration. Overall, our results support the view that a widespread mid-Holocene drought destroyed the rain-fed agricultural and/or plant-based subsistence economies, ultimately contributing to the collapse of late Neolithic cultures in NE China.

Early Holocene Great Salt Lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oviatt, Charles G.; Madsen, David B.; Miller, David; Thompson, Robert S.; McGeehin, John P.

2015-01-01

Shorelines and surficial deposits (including buried forest-floor mats and organic-rich wetland sediments) show that Great Salt Lake did not rise higher than modern lake levels during the earliest Holocene (11.5–10.2 cal ka BP; 10–9 14C ka BP). During that period, finely laminated, organic-rich muds (sapropel) containing brine-shrimp cysts and pellets and interbedded sodium-sulfate salts were deposited on the lake floor. Sapropel deposition was probably caused by stratification of the water column — a freshwater cap possibly was formed by groundwater, which had been stored in upland aquifers during the immediately preceding late-Pleistocene deep-lake cycle (Lake Bonneville), and was actively discharging on the basin floor. A climate characterized by low precipitation and runoff, combined with local areas of groundwater discharge in piedmont settings, could explain the apparent conflict between evidence for a shallow lake (a dry climate) and previously published interpretations for a moist climate in the Great Salt Lake basin of the eastern Great Basin.

Holocene climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenxiang; Niu, Jie; Ming, Qingzhong; Shi, Zhengtao; Lei, Guoliang; Huang, Linpei; Long, Xian'e.; Chang, Fengqin

2018-05-01

Climatic changes in the Asian southwest monsoon (ASWM) during the Holocene have become a topic of recent studies. It is important to understand the patterns and causes of Holocene climatic changes and their relationship with global changes. Based on the climate proxies and wavelet analysis of Lugu Lake in the ASWM region, the climatic fluctuations and periodic changes in the ASWM region during the Holocene have been reconstructed with a high-precision chronology. The results indicate the intensification of ASWM began to increase with Northern Hemisphere low-latitude solar insolation (LSI) and solar activity during the early Holocene, and gradually decreased during the late Holocene, exhibiting an apparent synchrony with numerous records of ASWM region. Meanwhile, an apparent 1000-a quasi-periodic signal is present in the environment proxies, and it demonstrates that the environmental change in the ASWM region has been driven mainly by LSI and solar activity.

Early Summer Drought Stress During the First Growing Year Stimulates Extra Shoot Growth in Oak Seedlings (Quercus petraea)

PubMed Central

Turcsán, Arion; Steppe, Kathy; Sárközi, Edit; Erdélyi, Éva; Missoorten, Marc; Mees, Ghislain; Mijnsbrugge, Kristine V.

2016-01-01

More severe summer droughts are predicted for mid-latitudes in Europe. To evaluate the impact on forest ecosystems and more specifically on forest regeneration, we studied the response to summer drought in oak seedlings (Quercus petraea). Acorns were collected from different mother trees in three stands in Belgium, sown in pots and grown in non-heated greenhouse conditions. We imposed drought on the seedlings in early summer by first watering the pots to saturation and then stopping any watering. Weight of the pots and stomatal conductance were regularly measured. Re-watering followed this drought period of 5 weeks. Height of the seedlings and apical bud development were observed. Stomatal resistance increased toward the end of the experiment in the drought-treated group and was restored after re-watering. The seedlings from the drought treatment displayed a higher probability to produce additional shoot growth after re-watering (p ≤ 0.05). A higher competition for water (two plants per pot) increased this chance. Although this chance was also higher for smaller seedlings, the actual length of the extra growth after re-watering was higher for larger seedlings (p ≤ 0.01). Both in the drought-treated and in the control group the autochthonous provenance growing on a xeric site produced less extra shoots compared to the two other provenances. Finally, stressed plants showed less developed apical buds compared to the control group after re-watering, suggesting a phenological effect on the growth cycle of oaks (p ≤ 0.0001). The higher chance for an extra shoot growth after the drought period can be considered as a compensation for the induced growth arrest during the drought period. PMID:26941760

Aeolian processes during the Holocene in Gannan Region, Eastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Cheng, T.; Li, S.; Liang, M.

2016-12-01

Aeolian desertification occurring in the Tibetan Plateau has received attention recently for it has become a severe environmental problem by accelerating the grassland degradation and eco-environment damage. The Gannan Region is located in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau with a mean altitude of 3500m. It is highly sensitive to global environmental change and human disturbance. Serious soil erosion and desertification and extensive land degradation have caused heavy eco-environmental impacts. To investigate the evolution of the desertification in Holocene in the Plateau is of great importance for understanding the desertification trend under the global changes in the Tibetan Plateau. Loess and aeolian sands is a key geological archive related to desertification processes and the past environment changes. In this study a typical 8.5m-thick loess-sands profile named MQQ, was selected at the Maqu city. It is situated on the first terrace (T1) of the Yellow River. Detailed accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dating of bulk organic matter content has shown the Aeolian sediments of the MQQ section occurring since the early Holocene. the mass-specific frequency-dependent magnetic susceptibility (χfd) and grainsize records show a clear upward increase in the contents of superparamagnetic grains and fine fractions in grain size, which indicates a gradual wetting trend during the Holocene.The sediment rates change from very high in the early Holocene to low values after 8.2 ka. The wetting process can be divided into three steps: 10.0-8.2 ka, 8.2-3.0 ka and 3.0-present. It indicates that the climate in the eastern Tibetan Plateau was dry during the early Holocene. After that the climate was getting wet gradually. The variations of the westerlies and the Asian monsoon may cause the environmental change in this region.

Comparative proteome analysis of drought-sensitive and drought-tolerant rapeseed roots and their hybrid F1 line under drought stress.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Payam Pour; Moieni, Ahmad; Komatsu, Setsuko

2012-11-01

Rapeseed (Brassica napus L.), which is the third leading source of vegetable oil, is sensitive to drought stress during the early vegetative growth stage. To investigate the initial response of rapeseed to drought stress, changes in the protein expression profiles of drought-sensitive (RGS-003) and drought-tolerant lines (SLM-003), and their F1 hybrid, were analyzed using a proteomics approach. Seven-day-old rapeseed seedlings were treated with drought stress by restricting water for 7 days, and proteins were extracted from roots and separated by two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. In the sensitive rapeseed line, 35 protein spots were differentially expressed under drought stress, and proteins related to metabolism, energy, disease/defense, and transport were decreased. In the tolerant line, 32 protein spots were differentially expressed under drought stress, and proteins involved in metabolism, disease/defense, and transport were increased, while energy-related proteins were decreased. Six protein spots in F1 hybrid were common among expressed proteins in the drought-sensitive and -tolerant lines. Notably, tubulin beta-2 and heat shock protein 70 were decreased in the drought-sensitive line and hybrid F1 plants, while jasmonate-inducible protein and 20S proteasome subunit PAF1 were increased in the F1 hybrids and drought-tolerant line. These results indicate that (1) V-type H(+) ATPase, plasma-membrane associated cation-binding protein, HSP 90, and elongation factor EF-2 have a role in the drought tolerance of rapeseed; (2) The decreased levels of heat shock protein 70 and tubulin beta-2 in the drought-sensitive and hybrid F1 lines might explain the reduced growth of these lines in drought conditions.

Late Holocene methane rise caused by orbitally controlled increase in tropical sources.

PubMed

Singarayer, Joy S; Valdes, Paul J; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Nelson, Sarah; Beerling, David J

2011-02-03

Considerable debate surrounds the source of the apparently 'anomalous' increase of atmospheric methane concentrations since the mid-Holocene (5,000 years ago) compared to previous interglacial periods as recorded in polar ice core records. Proposed mechanisms for the rise in methane concentrations relate either to methane emissions from anthropogenic early rice cultivation or an increase in natural wetland emissions from tropical or boreal sources. Here we show that our climate and wetland simulations of the global methane cycle over the last glacial cycle (the past 130,000 years) recreate the ice core record and capture the late Holocene increase in methane concentrations. Our analyses indicate that the late Holocene increase results from natural changes in the Earth's orbital configuration, with enhanced emissions in the Southern Hemisphere tropics linked to precession-induced modification of seasonal precipitation. Critically, our simulations capture the declining trend in methane concentrations at the end of the last interglacial period (115,000-130,000 years ago) that was used to diagnose the Holocene methane rise as unique. The difference between the two time periods results from differences in the size and rate of regional insolation changes and the lack of glacial inception in the Holocene. Our findings also suggest that no early agricultural sources are required to account for the increase in methane concentrations in the 5,000 years before the industrial era.

Holocene seasonal variability inferred from multiple proxy records from Crevice Lake, Yellowstone National Park, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitlock, Cathy; Dean, Walter E.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Stevens, Lora R.; Stone, Jeffery R.; Power, Mitchell J.; Rosenbaum, Joseph R.; Pierce, Kenneth L.; Bracht-Flyr, Brandi B.

2012-01-01

A 9400-yr-old record from Crevice Lake, a semi-closed alkaline lake in northern Yellowstone National Park, was analyzed for pollen, charcoal, geochemistry, mineralogy, diatoms, and stable isotopes to develop a nuanced understanding of Holocene environmental history in a region of northern Rocky Mountains that receives both summer and winter precipitation. The limited surface area, conical bathymetry, and deep water (> 31 m) of Crevice Lake create oxygen-deficient conditions in the hypolimnion and preserve annually laminated sediment (varves) for much of the record. Pollen data indicate that the watershed supported a closed Pinus-dominated forest and low fire frequency prior to 8200 cal yr BP, followed by open parkland until 2600 cal yr BP, and open mixed-conifer forest thereafter. Fire activity shifted from infrequent stand-replacing fires initially to frequent surface fires in the middle Holocene and stand-replacing events in recent centuries. Low values of δ18O suggest high winter precipitation in the early Holocene, followed by steadily drier conditions after 8500 cal yr BP. Carbonate-rich sediments before 5000 cal yr BP imply warmer summer conditions than after 5000 cal yr BP. High values of molybdenum (Mo), uranium (U), and sulfur (S) indicate anoxic bottom-waters before 8000 cal yr BP, between 4400 and 3900 cal yr BP, and after 2400 cal yr BP. The diatom record indicates extensive water-column mixing in spring and early summer through much of the Holocene, but a period between 2200 and 800 cal yr BP had strong summer stratification, phosphate limitation, and oxygen-deficient bottom waters. Together, the proxy data suggest wet winters, protracted springs, and warm effectively wet summers in the early Holocene and less snowpack, cool springs, warm dry summers in the middle Holocene. In the late Holocene, the region and lake experienced extreme changes in winter, spring, and summer conditions, with particularly short springs and dry summers and winters during

A Holocene temperature reconstruction from northern New Zealand: a test of North Atlantic Holocene climate patterns as a global template

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Bos, Valerie; Rees, Andrew; Newnham, Rewi; Augustinus, Paul

2017-04-01

Holocene climate variability has been well defined in the North Atlantic (Walker et al., 2012), but the global extent of this climate change stratigraphy is debatable. If the North Atlantic serves as a global template for Holocene climate, then New Zealand (NZ) is ideally positioned to test this assertion, as it is distal from the northern drivers. Additionally, it is one of the few landmasses in the Southern Hemisphere that is influenced by both sub-tropical and extra-tropical climatic regimes, which may be more important controls in the southern mid-latitudes. Although much work has been done to characterise the Holocene in NZ using pollen, most of these records lack the resolution or sensitivity to determine whether abrupt or short-lived events occurred. The NZ-INTIMATE climate event stratigraphy lacks a type section for the Holocene (Alloway et al., 2007). Records from northern NZ typically show little change, other than a possible early Holocene warming. Here, we present a combined pollen and chironomid temperature reconstruction from Lake Pupuke (northern NZ), the first of its kind in NZ that covers the entire Holocene. By comparing mean annual temperatures reconstructed from fossil pollen and mean summer temperatures inferred from chironomid remains, we can assess changes in seasonality. Mean summer temperature was reconstructed from the chironomid record using a weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) model (n comp = 2, r2booth = 0.77, RMSEP = 1.4°C) developed from an expanded version of Dieffenbacher-Krall et al. (2007)'s chironomid training set. Preliminary results show evidence for cool summers during the early Holocene as well as around the period of the Little Ice Age as defined in the North Atlantic region. These and other climate patterns determined from the Pupuke chironomid and pollen records will be compared with other evidence from northern New Zealand and with the North Atlantic record of Holocene climate variability. References

Major hydrological regime change along the semiarid western coast of South America during the early Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega, Cristina; Vargas, Gabriel; Rutllant, José A.; Jackson, Donald; Méndez, César

2012-11-01

Water availability in the semiarid western coast of Chile (30-32°S) is conditioned by high interannual precipitation variability, reflecting the transition between arid subtropical and moist mid-latitude climates in the Southeastern Pacific Ocean. A paleoclimate reconstruction based on the latest Pleistocene-Holocene geological record from the Quebrada Santa Julia archeological site in Chile (31°50'S) and on modern meteorological mechanisms producing alluvial episodes in this region indicates a major change in the rainfall regime shortly after 8600 cal yr BP. This, together with other paleoclimate proxies along the west coast of South America (34°-14°S), suggests La Niña-like conditions 13,000-8600 cal yr BP. Based on sedimentological and geomorphologic evidence, we hypothesized that the absence of heavy rainfall events in northern Chile and the new hydrological regime that prevailed ca. 8600-5700 cal yr BP in north-central Chile resulted from an increase in the large-scale westerly flow over central Chile, as expected in near-neutral ENSO conditions. This atmospheric circulation anomaly is compatible with an equatorward shift of the influence of the Southeast Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone relative to the early Holocene, prior to the onset of modern ENSO variability.

Holocene Vegetation and Fire Dynamics on the Chilcotin Plateau, BC, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, K. J.; Hebda, R.; Hawkes, B.

2014-12-01

The Chilcotin Plateau is a high elevation plateau in the west central interior of British Columbia, Canada. It is characterised by a continental climate and located in a rainshadow setting. Pine-dominated forests dominate. The region is prone to frequent fires and mountain pine beetle outbreaks. Several surface sediment cores and an overlapping Livingstone sediment core were collected from centrally-located Scum Lake and analysed for pollen, charcoal and insect remains. During the early-Holocene warm-dry interval, a non-arboreal vegetation community dominated by grass and sage dominated and surface fire disturbance was frequent. Model predictions suggest that non-arboreal vegetation may expand in this region in the future, suggesting that the fire regime will likewise change as in the early-Holocene. In the mid-Holocene, pine, possibly Pinus ponderosa, increased in abundance, suggesting that a surface fire regime persisted at that time. Pinus contorta pollen increased in the late-Holocene, representing the establishment of the modern forest and mixed/crown fire regime. Fire return intervals typically ranged between 20-100 years, consistent with tree-ring based observation (40-70 years). Analyses of the surface cores revealed that identifiable mountain pine beetle remains were rare, suggesting that alternative approaches may be required to assess to insect disturbance through time.

A quantitative analysis to objectively appraise drought indicators and model drought impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmair, S.; Svensson, C.; Hannaford, J.; Barker, L. J.; Stahl, K.

2016-07-01

Drought monitoring and early warning is an important measure to enhance resilience towards drought. While there are numerous operational systems using different drought indicators, there is no consensus on which indicator best represents drought impact occurrence for any given sector. Furthermore, thresholds are widely applied in these indicators but, to date, little empirical evidence exists as to which indicator thresholds trigger impacts on society, the economy, and ecosystems. The main obstacle for evaluating commonly used drought indicators is a lack of information on drought impacts. Our aim was therefore to exploit text-based data from the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII) to identify indicators that are meaningful for region-, sector-, and season-specific impact occurrence, and to empirically determine indicator thresholds. In addition, we tested the predictability of impact occurrence based on the best-performing indicators. To achieve these aims we applied a correlation analysis and an ensemble regression tree approach, using Germany and the UK (the most data-rich countries in the EDII) as test beds. As candidate indicators we chose two meteorological indicators (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, and Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index, SPEI) and two hydrological indicators (streamflow and groundwater level percentiles). The analysis revealed that accumulation periods of SPI and SPEI best linked to impact occurrence are longer for the UK compared with Germany, but there is variability within each country, among impact categories and, to some degree, seasons. The median of regression tree splitting values, which we regard as estimates of thresholds of impact occurrence, was around -1 for SPI and SPEI in the UK; distinct differences between northern/northeastern vs. southern/central regions were found for Germany. Predictions with the ensemble regression tree approach yielded reasonable results for regions with good impact data

Holocene paleoenvironments of Northeast Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, R.G.; Bettis, E. Arthur; Schwert, D.R.; Horton, D.G.; Chumbley, C.A.; Gonzalez, Luis A.; Reagan, M.K.

1996-01-01

This paper presents the biotic. sedimentary, geomorphic, and climatic history of the upper part of the Roberts Creek Basin, northeastern Iowa for the late-glacial and Holocene, and compares these records with a C-O isotopic sequence from Coldwater Cave. 60 km northwest of Roberts Creek. The biotic record (pollen, vascular plant and bryophyle macrofossils. and insects) is preserved in floodplain alluvium that underlies three constructional surfaces separated by low scarps. Each surface is underlain by a lithologically and temporally distinct alluvial fill. The highest surface is underlain by the Gunder Member of the Deforest Formation, dating from 11 000 to 4000 yr BP; beneath the intermediate level is the Roberts Creek Member, dating from 4000 to 400 yr BP; and the lowest level is underlain by the Camp Creek Member, deposited during the last 380 yr. Pollen and plant macrofossils in the alluvial fill show that a typical late-glacial spruce forest was replaced by Quercus and Ulmus in the early Holocene. This early-to-middle Holocene forest became dominated by mesic elements such as Acer saccharum, Tilia americana, Ostrya virginiana, and Carpinus caroliniana as late as 5500 yr BP; in contrast, the closest sites to the west and north were at their warmest and driest and were covered by prairie vegetation between 6500 and 5500 yr BP. After 5500 yr BP, the forest in the Roberts Creek area was replaced by prairie, as indicated by a rich assemblage of plant macrofossils, although only Ambrosia and Poaceae became abundant in the pollen record. The return of Quercus ??? 3000 BP (while nonarboreal pollen percentages remained relatively high) indicates that oak savanna prevailed with little change until settlement time. The bryophyte assemblages strongly support the vascular plant record. Rich fen species characteristic of boreal habitats occur only in the late-glacial. They are replaced by a number of deciduous-forest elements when early-to-middle Holocene forests were

Holocene Vegetation and Climate History of the Northern Bighorn Basin, Southern Montana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyford, Mark E.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

2002-09-01

Records of Holocene vegetation and climate change at low elevations (<2000 m) are rare in the central Rocky Mountain region. We developed a record of Holocene vegetation and climate change from 55 14C-dated woodrat middens at two low-elevation sites (1275 to 1590 m), currently vegetated by Juniperus osteosperma woodlands, in the northern Bighorn Basin. Macrofossil and pollen analyses show that the early Holocene was cooler than today, with warming and drying in the middle Holocene. During the Holocene, boreal ( Juniperus communis, J. horizontalis) and montane species ( J. scopulorum) were replaced by a Great Basin species ( J. osteosperma). J. osteosperma colonized the east side of the Pryor Mountains 4700 14C yr B.P. Downward movement of lower treeline indicates wetter conditions between 4400 and 2700 14C yr B.P. Increased aridity after 2700 14C yr B.P. initiated expansion of J. osteosperma from the east to west side of the Pryor Mountains.

Holocene vegetation and climate history of the northern Bighorn Basin, southern Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyford, M.E.; Betancourt, J.L.; Jackson, S.T.

2002-01-01

Records of Holocene vegetation and climate change at low elevations (<2000 m) are rare in the central Rocky Mountain region. We developed a record of Holocene vegetation and climate change from 55 14C-dated woodrat middens at two low-elevation sites (1275 to 1590 m, currently vegetated by Juniperus osteosperma woodlands, in the northern Bighorn Basin. Macrofossil and pollen analyses show that the early Holocene was cooler than today, with warming and drying in the middle Holocene. During the Holocene, boreal (Juniperus communis, J. horizontalis) and montane species (J. scopulorum) were replaced by a Great Basin species (J. osteosperma). J. osteosperma colonized the east side of the Pryor Mountains 4700 14C yr B.P. Downward movement of lower treeline indicates wetter conditions between 4400 and 2700 14C yr B.P. Increased aridity after 2700 14C yr B.P. initiated expansion of J. osteosperma from the east to west side of the Pryor Mountains. ?? 2002 University of Washington.

Investigate the Capabilities of Remotely Sensed Crop Indicators for Agricultural Drought Monitoring in Kansas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.

2013-12-01

Although agricultural production has been rising in the past years, drought remains the primary cause of crop failure, leading to food price instability and threatening food security. The recent 'Global Food Crisis' in 2008, 2011 and 2012 has put drought and its impact on crop production at the forefront, highlighting the need for effective agricultural drought monitoring. Satellite observations have proven a practical, cost-effective and dynamic tool for drought monitoring. However, most satellite based methods are not specially developed for agriculture and their performances for agricultural drought monitoring still need further development. Wheat is the most widely grown crop in the world, and the recent droughts highlight the importance of drought monitoring in major wheat producing areas. As the largest wheat producing state in the US, Kansas plays an important role in both global and domestic wheat markets. Thus, the objective of this study is to investigate the capabilities of remotely sensed crop indicators for effective agricultural drought monitoring in Kansas wheat-grown regions using MODIS data and crop yield statistics. First, crop indicators such as NDVI, anomaly and cumulative metrics were calculated. Second, the varying impacts of agricultural drought at different stages were explored by examining the relationship between the derived indicators and yields. Also, the starting date of effective agricultural drought early detection and the key agricultural drought alert period were identified. Finally, the thresholds of these indicators for agricultural drought early warning were derived and the implications of these indicators for agricultural drought monitoring were discussed. The preliminary results indicate that drought shows significant impacts from the mid-growing-season (after Mid-April); NDVI anomaly shows effective drought early detection from Late-April, and Late-April to Early-June can be used as the key alert period for agricultural

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heim, R. R.; Brewer, M.

2012-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a recent meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are underway with an emphasis on information and decision making, and how to

The Brazilian megamastofauna of the Pleistocene/Holocene transition and its relationship with the early human settlement of the continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubbe, Alex; Hubbe, Mark; Neves, Walter A.

2013-03-01

One of the most intriguing questions regarding the Brazilian Late Quaternary extinct megafauna and Homo sapiens is to what extent they coexisted and how humans could have contributed to the former's extinction. The aim of this article is to review the chronological and archaeological evidences of their coexistence in Brazil and to evaluate the degree of direct interaction between them. Critical assessment of the Brazilian megafauna chronological data shows that several of the late Pleistoscene/early Holocene dates available so far cannot be considered reliable, but the few that do suggest that at least two species (Catonyx cuvieri, ground sloth; Smilodon populator, saber-toothed cat) survived until the beginning of the Holocene in Southeast Brazil. Archaeological data indicates that the first human groups arrived in Brazil and were inhabiting this region during the last millennia of the Pleistocene and, consequently, they coexisted with the extinct fauna in some parts of Brazil for at least one thousand years. There is no robust evidence favoring any kind of direct interaction between humans and megafauna prior to their extinction. To date, it is not possible to properly judge the indirect influence of humans (landscape transformation, introduction of predators, among others) in this extinction event. Intense and to some extent unique climate changes between the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene favors the interpretation that they had a major contribution to the megafauna extinction, although the scarcity of data impedes the proper testing of this hypothesis.

A global hydrographic array for early detection of floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brakenridge, G.; Nghiem, S.; Caquard, S.

An array of over 700 20 km-long river gaging reaches, distributed world-wide, is imaged by the SeaWinds radar scatterometer aboard QuikSCAT every 2.5 days. Strongly negative HH/VV polarity ratios indicate large amounts of surface water. We set individual reach thresholds so that the transition from bankfull to overbank river flow can be identified according to changes in this ratio. Similarly, the wide-swath MODIS optical sensors provide frequent repeat coverage of the reaches at much higher spatial resolution (250 m). In this case, several reach water surface area thresholds can be identified: low flow or drought conditions, normal in-channel flow, overbank flow, and extreme flood conditions. Sustained data collection for the reaches by both sensors allows the radar response to changing surface water to be defined, and allows evaluation of the sensitivity of the MODIS data to river discharge changes. New approaches, such as ``unmixing'' analysis of mixed water/land MODIS pixels can extend detection limits to smaller rivers and streams. It is now possible for wide-area, frequent revisit terrestrial remote sensing to provide human society with early warning of both floods and droughts and by direct observation of the runoff component of the Earth's hydrologic cycle. Examples of both radar and optical approaches towards this end are at the web sites below: http://www.dartmouth.edu/˜ floods/Modisrapidresponse.html http://www.dartmouth.edu/˜ floods/sensorweb/SensorWebindex.html http://www.dartmouth.edu/˜ floods/Quikscat/Regional2/CurrentTisza.jpg} In particular, early flood detection results are obtained over an extensive region in eastern Europe including the Tisza River basin, Romania, Hungary, and adjacent nations. Flood detection maps are updated weekly at the web site. The combination of QuikSCAT and MODIS takes advantage of the large-area coverage of these sensors together with the high temporal resolution of QuikSCAT and the high spatial resolution of MODIS

Warm Mediterranean mid-Holocene summers inferred from fossil midge assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samartin, Stéphanie; Heiri, Oliver; Joos, Fortunat; Renssen, Hans; Franke, Jörg; Brönnimann, Stefan; Tinner, Willy

2017-02-01

Understanding past climate trends is key for reliable projections of global warming and associated risks and hazards. Uncomfortably large discrepancies between vegetation-based summer temperature reconstructions (mainly based on pollen) and climate model results have been reported for the current interglacial, the Holocene. For the Mediterranean region these reconstructions indicate cooler-than-present mid-Holocene summers, in contrast with expectations based on climate models and long-term changes in summer insolation. We present new quantitative and replicated Holocene summer temperature reconstructions based on fossil chironomid midges from the northern central Mediterranean region. The Holocene thermal maximum is reconstructed 9,000-5,000 years ago and estimated to have been 1-2 °C warmer in mean July temperature than the recent pre-industrial period, consistent with glacier and marine records, and with transient climate model runs. This combined evidence implies that widely used pollen-based summer temperature reconstructions in the Mediterranean area are significantly biased by precipitation or other forcings such as early land use. Our interpretation can resolve the previous discrepancy between climate models and quantitative palaeotemperature records for millennial-scale Holocene summer temperature trends in the Mediterranean region. It also suggests that pollen-based evidence for cool mid-Holocene summers in other semi-arid to arid regions of the Northern Hemisphere may have to be reconsidered, with potential implications for global-scale reconstructions.

Holocene climate variability and oceanographic changes off western South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Xueqin; Dupont, Lydie; E Meadows, Michael; Schefuß, Enno; Bouimetarhan, Ilham; Wefer, Gerold

2017-04-01

South Africa is located at a critical transition zone between subtropical and warm-temperate climate zones influenced by the Indian and Atlantic oceans. Presently, the seasonal changes of atmospheric and oceanic systems induce a pronounced rainfall seasonality comprised of two different rainfall zones over South Africa. How did this seasonality develop during the Holocene? To obtain a better understanding of how South African climates have evolved during the Holocene, we conduct a comprehensive spatial-temporal approach including pollen and dinoflagellate cyst records from marine sediment samples retrieved from the Namaqualand mudbelt, a Holocene terrigenous mud deposit on the shelf of western South Africa. The representation of different vegetation communities in western South Africa is assessed through pollen analysis of surface sediments. This approach allows for climate reconstructions of the summer rainfall zone (SRZ) using Group 1 (Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Phragmites-type and Typha) and winter rainfall zone (WRZ) using Group 2 (Restionaceae, Ericaceae, Anthospermum, Stoebe/Elytropappus-type, Cliffortia, Passerina, Artemisia-type and Pentzia-type) from a single marine archive. The fossil pollen data from gravity core GeoB8331-4 indicate contrasting climate patterns in the SRZ and WRZ especially during the early and middle Holocene. The rainfall amount in the SRZ is dominated by insolation forcing, while in the WRZ it is mainly attributed to the latitudinal position of the southern westerlies. Dinoflagellate cyst data show significantly different oceanographic conditions associated with climate changes on land. High percentages of autotrophic taxa like Operculodinium centrocarpum and Spiniferites spp. indicate warm and stratified conditions during the early Holocene, suggesting reduced upwelling. In contrast, the middle Holocene is characterized by a strong increase in heterotrophic taxa in particular Lejeunecysta paratenella and Echinidinium spp., indicating cool

Holocene paleoenviroments of northwest Iowa

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, R.G.; Bettis, E.A. III; Schwert, D.P.

1996-05-01

This paper presents the biotic, sedimentary, geomorphic, and climatic history of the upper part of the Roberts Creek Basin, northeastern Iowa for the late-glacial and Holocene, and compares these records with a C-O isotopic sequence from Coldwater Cave, 60 km northwest of Roberts Creek. the biotic record (pollen, vascular plant and bryophyte macrofossils, and insects) is preserved in floodplain alluvium that underlies three constructional surfaces separated by low scarps. Each surface is underlain by a lithologically and temporally distinct alluvial fill. The highest surface is underlain by the Gunder Member of the Deforest Formation, dating from 11,000 to 4000 yrmore » BP; beneath the intermediate level is the Roberts Creek Member, dating from 4000 to 400 yr BP; and the lowest level is underlain by the Camp Creek Member, deposited during the last 380 yr. Pollen and plant macrofossils in the alluvial fill show that a typical late-glacial spruce forest was replaced by Quercus and Ulmus in the early Holocene. This early-to-middle Holocene forest became dominated by medic elements such as Acer saccharum, Tila americana, Ostyra virginiana, and Carpinus caroliniana as late as 5500 yr BP; in contrast, the closest sites to the west and north were at their warmest and driest were covered by prairie vegetation between 6500 and 5500 yr BP. After 5500 yr BP, the forest in the roberts Creek area was replaced by prairie, as indicated by a rich assemblage of plant macrofossils, although only Ambrosia and Poaceae became abundant in the pollen record. The return of Quercus {approx} 3000 BP (while nonarboreal pollen percentages remained relatively high) indicates the oak savanna prevailed with little change until settlement time. 83 refs., 17 figs., 5 tabs.« less

A vantage from space can detect earlier drought onset: an approach using relative humidity.

PubMed

Farahmand, Alireza; AghaKouchak, Amir; Teixeira, Joao

2015-02-25

Each year, droughts cause significant economic and agricultural losses across the world. The early warning and onset detection of drought is of particular importance for effective agriculture and water resource management. Previous studies show that the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), a measure of precipitation deficit, detects drought onset earlier than other indicators. Here we show that satellite-based near surface air relative humidity data can further improve drought onset detection and early warning. This paper introduces the Standardized Relative Humidity Index (SRHI) based on the NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations. The results indicate that the SRHI typically detects the drought onset earlier than the SPI. While the AIRS mission was not originally designed for drought monitoring, we show that its relative humidity data offers a new and unique avenue for drought monitoring and early warning. We conclude that the early warning aspects of SRHI may have merit for integration into current drought monitoring systems.

A Vantage from Space Can Detect Earlier Drought Onset: An Approach Using Relative Humidity

PubMed Central

Farahmand, Alireza; AghaKouchak, Amir; Teixeira, Joao

2015-01-01

Each year, droughts cause significant economic and agricultural losses across the world. The early warning and onset detection of drought is of particular importance for effective agriculture and water resource management. Previous studies show that the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), a measure of precipitation deficit, detects drought onset earlier than other indicators. Here we show that satellite-based near surface air relative humidity data can further improve drought onset detection and early warning. This paper introduces the Standardized Relative Humidity Index (SRHI) based on the NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations. The results indicate that the SRHI typically detects the drought onset earlier than the SPI. While the AIRS mission was not originally designed for drought monitoring, we show that its relative humidity data offers a new and unique avenue for drought monitoring and early warning. We conclude that the early warning aspects of SRHI may have merit for integration into current drought monitoring systems. PMID:25711500

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, D. S.; Brewer, M.; Heim, R. R., Jr.

2014-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a past meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around providing operational global drought monitoring products and assessments, incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are

A introduction of a Scientific Research Program on Chinese Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.

2014-12-01

Drought is one of the major meteorological disasters, with high frequencies, wide distributions and serious conditions. It is one of the biggest impacts on global agricultural productions, ecological environment and socioeconomic sustainable developments. China is particularly one of the countries in the world with serious drought disasters. The goal of this project is improving the capabilities in drought monitoring and forecasting based on an in-depth theories of drought. The project will be implemented in the typical extreme drought area based on comprehensive and systemic observation network and numerical experiments It will show a complete feedback mechanism among the atmospheric, water, biological and other spheres for forming drought. First, the atmospheric droughts that leads to agriculture and hydrologic drought and the possible causes for these disasters will be explored using our observation data sets. Second, the capability of monitoring, forecasting and early warning for drought will be developed with numerical model (regional climate model and land surface model, etc.). Last but not the least, evaluation approaches for the risk of drought and the strategy of predicting/prohibiting the drought at regional scale will be proposed. Meanwhile, service system and information sharing platform of drought monitoring and early warning will be established to improve the technical level of drought disaster preparedness and response in China.

The Biogeophysical Climatic Impacts of Anthropogenic Land Use Change during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Clare; Singarayer, Joy; Valdes, Paul; Kaplan, Jed; Branch, Nicholas

2016-04-01

The first agricultural societies were established around 10ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with HadCM3 were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation simulated by TRIFFID but no land-use changes, and (ii) where the anthropogenic land use model, KK10 (Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011*) has been used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations have been run at 1,000 year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and S.E. Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7ka BP in the June/July/August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2-3ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies

Megadroughts and late Holocene dune activation at the eastern margin of the Great Plains, north-central Kansas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanson, P. R.; Arbogast, A. F.; Johnson, W. C.; Joeckel, R. M.; Young, A. R.

2010-01-01

Optical and radiocarbon dating indicates that alluvium underlying dunes near Abilene was deposited at or before ˜45 ka, and that the overlying dunes were active at ˜1.1-0.5 ka. Geochemical data indicate that the Abilene dune sand is immature and was derived from the underlying Pleistocene alluvium, and not from Holocene age Smoky Hill River deposits. These findings suggest that dune activation was a response to increased aridity and local reduction in vegetation cover as opposed to changes in sediment availability from nearby rivers. The time interval of dune activation at Abilene overlaps Medieval Warm Period megadroughts, similar to the larger and more westerly dune fields on the Great Plains, including the Nebraska Sand Hills and the Great Bend Sand Prairie. The activation of smaller dune fields such as the Abilene dunes near the more humid eastern margin of the Great Plains shows the geographic extent and severity of paleodrought events. Unlike the Duncan dunes, another plains-marginal dune field, however, the Abilene dunes show no evidence for multiple drought events during the Holocene. This difference in dune activity, if it is not a result of sampling or preservation bias, indicates variations in the extent and severity of older drought events at the eastern margin of the Great Plains.

Holocene vegetation changes through Lac Ledro sediments (Trentino, Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joannin, Sebastien; Vannière, Boris; Galop, Didier; Magny, Michel; Gilli, Adrian; Chapron, Emmanuel; Wirth, Stéfanie; Anselmetti, Flavio; Desmet, Marc

2010-05-01

Lake Ledro is part of the French program ANR LAMA (coordinators: M. Magny and N. Combourieu Nebout) which aims to link Holocene paleoenvironmental changes along a north-south transect in Italy. Lake Ledro (652 m a.s.l.; Trentino, north-eastern Italy) is the northward component of the transect. It is located on the southern slope of the Alps and its catchment area covers 131 km2 with mountains culminating at 1500-2000 m. A multi-proxy approach based on biotic and abiotic indicators (lake-level, palynology, geochemistry and geophysic) was developed from deep and littoral cores, including sediment sequences in Early and Middle Bronze Age lake-shore archaeological sites. We aim reconstructing paleoenvironmental changes resulting from both climate and anthropic influences trough the entire Holocene. A deep master core was built after extracting twin cores from a non disturbed sediment zone recognised by seismic-reflexion investigations. The age-depth model is based on 13 AMS 14C ages measured on terrestrial plant macrofossils and the mean temporal resolution for analyses is ca 60 years. Palynological study shows the usual vegetation succession for the southern slope of the Alps. During the first part of the Holocene, abrupt changes are observed in pollen assemblages in relation to changes in other proxies (XRF and Magnetic Susceptibility) and correlate with cold events associated to the deglaciation in the North-Atlantic area. Cool episodes corresponding to the PreBoreal Oscillation (ca 11.3 ka cal BP) and 8.2 ka event are respectively characterized by stopping afforestation and a strong development of Abies in the local ecosystem. During the second part of the Holocene, two declines of arboreal pollen abundance are observed in relation with occurrences in both cereal and anthropic pollen indicators. These two phases are confirmed by increase in soil erosion as indicated by abiotic proxies. They give evidence of two successive steps for human settlement (Early

Oceanographic variability on the West Antarctic Peninsula during the Holocene and the influence of upper circumpolar deep water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peck, Victoria L.; Allen, Claire S.; Kender, Sev; McClymont, Erin L.; Hodgson, Dominic A.

2015-07-01

Recent intensification of wind-driven upwelling of warm upper circumpolar deep water (UCDW) has been linked to accelerated melting of West Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers. To better assess the long term relationship between UCDW upwelling and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, we present a multi-proxy reconstruction of surface and bottom water conditions in Marguerite Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), through the Holocene. A combination of sedimentological, diatom and foraminiferal records are, for the first time, presented together to infer a decline in UCDW influence within Marguerite Bay through the early to mid Holocene and the dominance of cyclic forcing in the late Holocene. Extensive glacial melt, limited sea ice and enhanced primary productivity between 9.7 and 7.0 ka BP is considered to be most consistent with persistent incursions of UCDW through Marguerite Trough. From 7.0 ka BP sea ice seasons increased and productivity decreased, suggesting that UCDW influence within Marguerite Bay waned, coincident with the equatorward migration of the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW). UCDW influence continued through the mid Holocene, and by 4.2 ka BP lengthy sea ice seasons persisted within Marguerite Bay. Intermittent melting and reforming of this sea ice within the late Holocene may be indicative of episodic incursions of UCDW into Marguerite Bay during this period. The cyclical changes in the oceanography within Marguerite Bay during the late Holocene is consistent with enhanced sensitively to ENSO forcing as opposed to the SWW-forcing that appears to have dominated the early to mid Holocene. Current measurements of the oceanography of the WAP continental shelf suggest that the system has now returned to the early Holocene-like oceanographic configuration reported here, which in both cases has been associated with rapid deglaciation.

Assessing the Efficiency of Phenotyping Early Traits in a Greenhouse Automated Platform for Predicting Drought Tolerance of Soybean in the Field

PubMed Central

Peirone, Laura S.; Pereyra Irujo, Gustavo A.; Bolton, Alejandro; Erreguerena, Ignacio; Aguirrezábal, Luis A. N.

2018-01-01

Conventional field phenotyping for drought tolerance, the most important factor limiting yield at a global scale, is labor-intensive and time-consuming. Automated greenhouse platforms can increase the precision and throughput of plant phenotyping and contribute to a faster release of drought tolerant varieties. The aim of this work was to establish a framework of analysis to identify early traits which could be efficiently measured in a greenhouse automated phenotyping platform, for predicting the drought tolerance of field grown soybean genotypes. A group of genotypes was evaluated, which showed variation in their drought susceptibility index (DSI) for final biomass and leaf area. A large number of traits were measured before and after the onset of a water deficit treatment, which were analyzed under several criteria: the significance of the regression with the DSI, phenotyping cost, earliness, and repeatability. The most efficient trait was found to be transpiration efficiency measured at 13 days after emergence. This trait was further tested in a second experiment with different water deficit intensities, and validated using a different set of genotypes against field data from a trial network in a third experiment. The framework applied in this work for assessing traits under different criteria could be helpful for selecting those most efficient for automated phenotyping. PMID:29774042

Assessing the Efficiency of Phenotyping Early Traits in a Greenhouse Automated Platform for Predicting Drought Tolerance of Soybean in the Field.

PubMed

Peirone, Laura S; Pereyra Irujo, Gustavo A; Bolton, Alejandro; Erreguerena, Ignacio; Aguirrezábal, Luis A N

2018-01-01

Conventional field phenotyping for drought tolerance, the most important factor limiting yield at a global scale, is labor-intensive and time-consuming. Automated greenhouse platforms can increase the precision and throughput of plant phenotyping and contribute to a faster release of drought tolerant varieties. The aim of this work was to establish a framework of analysis to identify early traits which could be efficiently measured in a greenhouse automated phenotyping platform, for predicting the drought tolerance of field grown soybean genotypes. A group of genotypes was evaluated, which showed variation in their drought susceptibility index (DSI) for final biomass and leaf area. A large number of traits were measured before and after the onset of a water deficit treatment, which were analyzed under several criteria: the significance of the regression with the DSI, phenotyping cost, earliness, and repeatability. The most efficient trait was found to be transpiration efficiency measured at 13 days after emergence. This trait was further tested in a second experiment with different water deficit intensities, and validated using a different set of genotypes against field data from a trial network in a third experiment. The framework applied in this work for assessing traits under different criteria could be helpful for selecting those most efficient for automated phenotyping.

Holocene temperature variability revealed by brGDGTs in subtropical southwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Zhao, C.

2017-12-01

Subtropical areas are important source region of moisture and heat in global climate system. Paleoclimate reconstructions from these regions, especially quantitative records, would not only help to better understand the nature of climate system through time, but also provide important constraining dataset for long-term ecosystem variations in these ecological important areas. To date, quantitative climate records with reliable chronological controls are still limited from terrestrial archives in subtropical areas. Here we present a 50-year-resolution quantitative temperature record throughout the Holocene based on branched GDGTs at a small alpine lake, Tiancai Lake (26°38'E, 99°43'N, 3898 m.a.s.l) in southwestern China. The record is based on a temporal calibration between instrumental mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and brGDGT compounds (GDGT-IIIa, GDGT-IIa', GDGT-IIb, GDGT-Ia and GDGT-Ic). The MAAT was relatively low -0.6 ° between 11 and 7.5 ka, then abruptly increased 1 ° to 4 °until 7 ka. The MAAT was relatively warm 2° between 7 and 1 ka, then decreased to 1° over the last 1 ka. The Middle to Late Holocene was 3 ° warmer than the Early Holocene. The MAAT variation at Lake Tiancai is supported by changes in evergreen oaks and Tsuga from the same sediment core, suggesting that the growth of cold-tolerant forest in place of subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest has been driven by the decrease in MAAT. The early Holocene cold interval revealed by our record and pollen data is different with the chironomid-based summer temperature reconstruction from the same lake, the latter has been driven by summer insolation. This difference suggests that a pronounced winter contribution to the mean annual temperature during the early Holocene, which was probably caused by a low winter insolation, and strengthened by a sparse vegetation cover and influences of winter ice/snow cover in tropical high latitude regions.

Lacustrine lignin biomarker record reveals a severe drought during the late Younger Dryas in southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Xiaodong; Bao, Hongyan; Zheng, Liwei; Li, Dawei; Kao, Shuh-Ji

2017-03-01

The Younger Dryas (YD) event, which punctuated the last glacial-Holocene transition period and had a profound impact on global climate, is the most well studied millennial-scale climate event although the triggering mechanism remains debate. Weakened Asian summer monsoon during the YD is recorded in oxygen isotopes of stalagmite from Mainland China. However, lacustrine climate record of the YD event has not been reported from the subtropical land-ocean boundary of the Asian continent near the Pacific warm pool. We provide a lignin biomarker record covering the last deglaciation and early Holocene (17-9 ka BP) from the Dongyuan Lake, southern Taiwan, located at the frontal zone of typhoon invasion. The lignin phenol ratio S/V shows that the vegetation in the catchments had shifted from gymnosperm dominant to angiosperm dominant plants since 12.2 ka BP. Significantly decreased lignin concentrations (TLP and λ8) and elevated lignin degradation parameters ((Ad/Al)v, P/(V + S), DHBA/V) in combination with other organic proxies (TOC, δ13Corg) during the late YD suggest a severe drought had occurred in southern Taiwan during this specific period. Changes in the lignin proxies from the Dongyuan Lake lagged the climate changes registered in stalagmite records by around 500-800 years, suggesting a slow response of vegetation and soil processes to rapid climate changes.

Climate Engine - Monitoring Drought with Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegewisch, K.; Daudert, B.; Morton, C.; McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Drought has adverse effects on society through reduced water availability and agricultural production and increased wildfire risk. An abundance of remotely sensed imagery and climate data are being collected in near-real time that can provide place-based monitoring and early warning of drought and related hazards. However, in an era of increasing wealth of earth observations, tools that quickly access, compute, and visualize archives, and provide answers at relevant scales to better inform decision-making are lacking. We have developed ClimateEngine.org, a web application that uses Google's Earth Engine platform to enable users to quickly compute and visualize real-time observations. A suite of drought indices allow us to monitor and track drought from local (30-meters) to regional scales and contextualize current droughts within the historical record. Climate Engine is currently being used by U.S. federal agencies and researchers to develop baseline conditions and impact assessments related to agricultural, ecological, and hydrological drought. Climate Engine is also working with the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) to expedite monitoring agricultural drought over broad areas at risk of food insecurity globally.

Alkenone-based reconstructions show four-phase Holocene temperature history for Arctic Svalbard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bilt, W. G. M.; D'Andrea, W. J.; Bakke, J.; Balascio, N.; Werner, J.; Bradley, R. S.

2016-12-01

Situated at the crossroads of global oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns, the Arctic is a key component of Earth`s climate system. Amplified by sea-ice feedbacks, even modest shifts in regional heat budget drive large climate responses. This is highlighted by the dramatic response of the Arctic to global warming. Assessing the signature of underlying forcings require paleoclimate records, allowing us to expand our knowledge beyond the short instrumental period and contextualize ongoing warming. However, such data are scarce and sparse in the Arctic, limiting our ability to address these issues. We present two quantitative Holocene-length summer temperature reconstructions from the Arctic Svalbard archipelago. Temperature estimates are based on alkenone unsaturation ratios measured on sediment cores from two lakes. Our data reveal a dynamic Holocene temperature history, with reconstructed lake water temperatures spanning a range of 6-8 °C, and characterized by four phases. The Early Holocene was marked by an early ( 10.5 ka cal. BP) onset of insolation-driven Hypsithermal conditions, likely compounded by strengthening oceanic heat transport. This warm interval was interrupted by cooling between 10.5-8.3 ka cal. BP that we attribute to cooling effects from the melting Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Temperatures declined throughout the Middle Holocene, following a gradual trend that was accentuated by two cooling steps between 7.8-7 ka cal. BP and 4.4-3.5 ka cal. BP. These transitions coincide with a strengthening influence of Arctic water and sea-ice in the adjacent eastern Fram Strait. During the Late Holocene (past 4 ka), temperature change decoupled from the still-declining insolation, and fluctuated around cold mean conditions. This study improves our understanding of Arctic climate dynamics by demonstrating that Holocene Svalbard temperatures were governed by an alternation of forcing mechanism.

A high-resolution speleothem record of western equatorial Pacific rainfall: Implications for Holocene ENSO evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Sang; Hoffmann, Sharon S.; Lund, David C.; Cobb, Kim M.; Emile-Geay, Julien; Adkins, Jess F.

2016-05-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of interannual climate variability in the tropics and subtropics. Despite substantial progress in understanding ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that drive ENSO today, relatively little is known about its behavior on centennial and longer timescales. Paleoclimate records from lakes, corals, molluscs and deep-sea sediments generally suggest that ENSO variability was weaker during the mid-Holocene (4-6 kyr BP) than the late Holocene (0-4 kyr BP). However, discrepancies amongst the records preclude a clear timeline of Holocene ENSO evolution and therefore the attribution of ENSO variability to specific climate forcing mechanisms. Here we present δ18 O results from a U-Th dated speleothem in Malaysian Borneo sampled at sub-annual resolution. The δ18 O of Borneo rainfall is a robust proxy of regional convective intensity and precipitation amount, both of which are directly influenced by ENSO activity. Our estimates of stalagmite δ18 O variance at ENSO periods (2-7 yr) show a significant reduction in interannual variability during the mid-Holocene (3240-3380 and 5160-5230 yr BP) relative to both the late Holocene (2390-2590 yr BP) and early Holocene (6590-6730 yr BP). The Borneo results are therefore inconsistent with lacustrine records of ENSO from the eastern equatorial Pacific that show little or no ENSO variance during the early Holocene. Instead, our results support coral, mollusc and foraminiferal records from the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that show a mid-Holocene minimum in ENSO variance. Reduced mid-Holocene interannual δ18 O variability in Borneo coincides with an overall minimum in mean δ18 O from 3.5 to 5.5 kyr BP. Persistent warm pool convection would tend to enhance the Walker circulation during the mid-Holocene, which likely contributed to reduced ENSO variance during this period. This finding implies that both convective intensity and interannual variability in Borneo are driven by

Glaciation in the Andes during the Lateglacial and Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodbell, Donald T.; Smith, Jacqueline A.; Mark, Bryan G.

2009-10-01

This review updates the chronology of Andean glaciation during the Lateglacial and the Holocene from the numerous articles and reviews published over the past three decades. The Andes, which include some of the world's wettest and driest mountainous regions, offer an unparalleled opportunity to elucidate spatial and temporal patterns of glaciation along a continuous 68-degree meridional transect. The geographic and altitudinal extent of modern glaciers and the sensitivity of both modern and former glaciers to respond to changes in specific climatic variables reflect broad-scale atmospheric circulation and consequent regional moisture patterns. Glaciers in the tropical Andes and in the mid-latitude Andes are likely to have been far more sensitive to changes in temperature than glaciers in the dry subtropical Andes. Broad-scale temporal and spatial patterns of glaciation during the Lateglacial are apparent. In the southernmost Andes, the Lateglacial chronology appears to have a strong Antarctic signature with the best-dated moraines correlating closely with the Antarctic Cold Reversal. The southernmost Andes do not appear to have experienced a significant ice advance coeval with the Younger Dryas (YD) climatic reversal. At the other end of the Andes, from ˜0 to 9°N, a stronger YD connection may exist, but critical stratigraphic and geochronologic work is required before a YD ice advance can be fully demonstrated. In the central Andes of Peru, well-dated moraines record a significant ice readvance at the onset of the YD, but ice was retreating during much of the remaining YD interval. The spatial-temporal pattern of Holocene glaciation exhibits tantalizing but incomplete evidence for an Early to Mid-Holocene ice advance(s) in many regions, but not in the arid subtropical Andes, where moraines deposited during or slightly prior to the Little Ice Age (LIA) record the most extensive advance of the Holocene. In many regions, there is strong evidence for Neoglacial

The Holocene Records of Glycerol Dialkyl Glycerol Tetraethers From the Northern Chukchi Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Y.; Yamamoto, M.; Nam, S.; Polyak, L. V.

2013-12-01

We analyzed glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) in Cores HOTRAX 05-01 JPC5 and JPC 8, and ARA02B 01-GC in the northern Chukchi Sea. All of the three cores showed a similar changing pattern in GDGT composition during the Holocene. In the beginning of early Holocene, both isoprenoid and branched GDGT concentrations were low, and BIT and CBT were relatively high. The similar composition is found in modern sediments from the western Arctic Ocean north of 75°N, suggesting that the northern Chukchi Sea was covered by perennial sea ice. GDGT concentration increased, and BIT and CBT decreased during the early Holocene and reached the same level as those in modern sediments at 8 ka. TEX86 and CBT/MBT indices showed millennial-scale variation. We interpret that these proxies did not simply indicate temperatures but were affected by the relative contribution of different sediment sources. Millennial-scale variability likely reflected changes in sediment transport in the northern Chukchi Sea.

Early-Holocene intensified Indian summer monsoon and its impact on vegetation: study based on hydrogen and carbon isotope values in long chain alkane from relict lake sediments in the Central Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanyal, P.; Ghosh, S.; Bhushan, R.; Juyal, N.

2017-12-01

The early Holocene was characterized by intensified monsoon, however none of the paleoclimatic records showed the magnitude required to shape the observed landform in the Ganges plain and sediment discharge in the Bay of Bengal. The Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission data suggests that the Central Himalaya ( 2 km altitude) is characterized by high rainfall and hence paleoclimate proxies from this region would provide excellent opportunity to reconstruct the Holocene monsoon. An attempt has been made, for the first time, to reconstruct the Holocene monsoon using n-alkane δDC29 values of lake sediments from Benital area in the Central Himalaya which receives ca. 80% of the mean annual rainfall during summer monsoon. The n-alkane δDC29 values indicated that early Holocene (ca. 9 ka) was characterised by a wet phase with 70% increase in the rainfall followed by the dry middle-late Holocene which is in agreement with existing continental records. However, the change in intensity as inferred in the present study is maximum compared to the existing records. The comparison of δDC29values and the solar insolation data at 30 °N latitude suggested that migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone controlled the variation in monsoonal rainfall. Comparison with the modern plants, the δ13CC29 values indicated that during ca. pre and post 7 ka the lake catchment was dominated by woody and non-woody plants, respectively. The cross plot between δDC29 and δ13CC29 indicated that at higher rainfall, the δ13CC29 values of catchment vegetation were less-responsive.

Major Mesoamerican droughts of the past millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahle, D. W.; Diaz, J. Villanueva; Burnette, D. J.; Paredes, J. Cerano; Heim, R. R., Jr.; Fye, F. K.; Acuna Soto, R.; Therrell, M. D.; Cleaveland, M. K.; Stahle, D. K.

2011-03-01

Ancient Montezuma baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum) trees found in Barranca de Amealco, Queretaro, have been used to develop a 1,238-year tree-ring chronology that is correlated with precipitation, temperature, drought indices, and crop yields in central Mexico. This chronology has been used to reconstruct the spring-early summer soil moisture balance over the heartland of the Mesoamerican cultural province, and is the first exactly dated, annually resolved paleoclimatic record for Mesoamerica spanning the Late Classic, Post Classic, Colonial, and modern eras. The reconstruction indicates that the Terminal Classic drought extended into central Mexico, supporting other sedimentary and speleothem evidence for this early 10th century drought in Mesoamerica. The reconstruction also documents severe and sustained drought during the decline of the Toltec state (1149-1167) and during the Spanish conquest of the Aztec state (1514-1539), providing a new precisely dated climate framework for Mesoamerican cultural change.

Holocene Paleoenvironment of the North-central Great Basin: Preliminary Results from Favre Lake, Northern Ruby Mountains, Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starratt, S.; Wahl, D.; Wan, E.; Anderson, L.; Wanket, J.; Olson, H.; Lloyd-Davies, T.; Kusler, J.

2009-12-01

Little is known about Holocene climate variability in north-central Nevada. This study aims to assess changes in watershed vegetation, fire history, lake levels and limnological conditions in order to understand secular to millennial-scale changes in regional climate. Favre Lake (2,899 m a.s.l.; 12 m deep; 7.7 hectares) is a flow-through lake in the northern Ruby Mountains. The primary sources of influent, both of which appear to be intermittent, are Castle Lake (2,989 m a.s.l.) and Liberty Lake (3,077 m a.s.l.). The bedrock of the three lake basins is early Paleozoic marble and Mesozoic granite and metamorphic rocks. Bathymetric maps and temperature, pH, salinity, and conductivity profiles have been generated for Favre Lake. Surface samples and a series of cores were also collected using a modified Livingstone piston corer. The presence of the Mazama ash in the basal sediment (~4 m below the sediment/water interface) indicates the record extends to ~7,700 cal yr B.P. Magnetic susceptibility (MS) and loss-on-ignition data indicate that the sediments in the lowest part of the core contain primary and reworked Mazama ash. About 2,000 years ago CaCO3 increased from 2 to 3% of the inorganic sediment. The upper 25 cm of the core are marked by an increase in MS which may indicate increased erosion due to grazing. Between about 7,700 and 6,000 cal yr B.P. the diatom flora is dominated by a diverse assemblage of benthic species. The remainder of the core is dominated by Fragilaria, suggesting that lake level rose and flooded the shelf that surrounds the depocenter of the lake. This is supported by changes in the abundance of the aquatic fern Isoetes. Pinus and Artemisia dominate the pollen record, followed by subordinate levels of Poaceae, Asteraceae, Amaranthaceae, and Sarcobatus. The late early Holocene (7,700-6,000 cal yr B.P.) is dominated by Pinus which is present in reduced amounts during the middle Holocene (6,000-3,000 cal yr B.P.) and then returns to dominance in

Early to Middle Holocene sea level fluctuation, coastal progradation and the Neolithic occupation in the Yaojiang Valley of southern Hangzhou Bay, Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yan; Sun, Qianli; Fan, Daidu; Dai, Bin; Ma, Fuwei; Xu, Lichen; Chen, Jing; Chen, Zhongyuan

2018-06-01

The Yaojiang Valley (YJV) of southern Hangzhou Bay was the birthplace of the well-known Hemudu Culture (HC), one of the representatives of Neolithic civilization in eastern China. To explore the magnitude of natural environmental effects on the HC trajectory, the palaeo-embayment setting of the YJV was studied in detail for the first time in terms of 3D Holocene strata supported by a series of new radiocarbon-dated cores. The results indicated that the local relative sea level rose rapidly during the Early Holocene in the YJV, reached its maximum flooding surface ca. 7900 cal yr BP, and then remained stable ca. 7900-7600 cal yr BP. Thereupon, an estuary stretching inland was first formed by marine transgression, and then, it was transformed to an alluvial-coastal plain by regressive progradation. The alluvial plain was initiated in the foothills and then spread towards the valley centre after sea level stabilization ca. 7600 cal yr BP. Accompanying these natural environmental changes, the earliest arrivals of foragers in the valley occurred no later than ca. 7000 cal yr BP. They engaged in rice farming and fostered the HC for approximately two millennia from ca. 7000-5000 cal yr BP as more lands developed from coastal progradation. The rise and development of the HC are closely associated with the sea level-induced landscape changes in the YJV in the Early-Middle Holocene, but the enigmatic exodus of the HC people after ca. 5000 cal yr BP is still contentious and possibly linked with the rapid waterlogging and deterioration of this setting in such a low-lying coastal plain as well as with associated social reasons.

Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene lake-level fluctuations in the Lahontan Basin, Nevada: Implications for the distribution of archaeological sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, K.D.; Goebel, Thomas; Graf, K.; Smith, G.M.; Camp, A.J.; Briggs, R.W.; Rhode, D.

2008-01-01

The Great Basin of the western U.S. contains a rich record of late Pleistocene and Holocene lake-level fluctuations as well as an extensive record of human occupation during the same time frame. We compare spatial-temporal relationships between these records in the Lahontan basin to consider whether lake-level fluctuations across the Pleistocene-Holocene transition controlled distribution of archaeological sites. We use the reasonably well-dated archaeological record from caves and rockshelters as well as results from new pedestrian surveys to investigate this problem. Although lake levels probably reached maximum elevations of about 1230-1235 m in the different subbasins of Lahontan during the Younger Dryas (YD) period, the duration that the lakes occupied the highest levels was brief Paleoindian and early Archaic archaeological sites are concentrated on somewhat lower and slightly younger shorelines (???1220-1225 in) that also date from the Younger Dryas period. This study suggests that Paleoindians often concentrated their activities adjacent to large lakes and wetland resources soon after they first entered the Great Basin. ?? 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Latest Pleistocene and Holocene Glacier Fluctuations in southernmost Patagonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menounos, B.; Maurer, M.; Clague, J. J.; osborn, G.; Ponce, F.; Davis, P. T.; Rabassa, J.; Coronato, A.; Marr, R.

2011-12-01

Summer insolation has been proposed to explain long-term glacier fluctuations during the Holocene. If correct, the record of glacier fluctuations at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere should differ from that in the Northern Hemisphere. Testing this insolation hypothesis has been hampered by dating uncertainties of many Holocene glacier chronologies from Patagonia. We report on our ongoing research aimed at developing a regional glacier chronology at the southern end of the Andes north and west of Ushuaia, Argentina. We have found evidence for an advance of cirque glaciers at the end of the Pleistocene; one or locally two closely spaced moraines extend up to 2 km beyond Little Ice Age moraines. Radiocarbon dating of terrestrial macrofossils recovered from basal sediments behind two of these moraines yielded ages of 10,320 ± 25 and 10,330 ± 30 14C yr BP. These moraines may record glacier advances coeval with the Antarctic Cold Reversal; surface exposure dating of these moraines is currently in progress to test this hypothesis. We find no evidence of Holocene moraines older than 6800 14C yr BP, based on the distribution of Hudson tephra of that age. At some sites, there is evidence for an early Neoglacial advance of glaciers slightly beyond (< 0.5 km) Little Ice Age limits. Terrestrial macrofossils at the upper contact of basal till from one site yielded an age of 4505 ± 30 14C yr BP; this age overlaps the most probable age range of early Neoglacial ice expansion in southern Patagonia reported by Porter (2000) and the age of plants killed by expansion of the Quelccaya Ice Cap in Peru. We have documented multiple wood mats with stumps in growth position separated by till units in a 100 m section of the northeast lateral moraine at Stoppani Glacier (54.78 S, 68.98 W), 50 km west of Ushuaia. Ten radiocarbon ages on these wood mats range in age from 3510 ± 15 to 135 ± 15 14C yr BP. The mats decrease in age up-section; many overlap with published age ranges for

Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

2018-03-01

Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

A Drought Early Warning System Using System Dynamics Model and Seasonal Climate Forecasts: a case study in Hsinchu, Taiwan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tien, Yu-Chuan; Tung, Ching-Ping; Liu, Tzu-Ming; Lin, Chia-Yu

2016-04-01

In the last twenty years, Hsinchu, a county of Taiwan, has experienced a tremendous growth in water demand due to the development of Hsinchu Science Park. In order to fulfill the water demand, the government has built the new reservoir, Baoshan second reservoir. However, short term droughts still happen. One of the reasons is that the water level of the reservoirs in Hsinchu cannot be reasonably forecasted, which sometimes even underestimates the severity of drought. The purpose of this study is to build a drought early warning system that projects the water levels of two important reservoirs, Baoshan and Baoshan second reservoir, and also the spatial distribution of water shortagewith the lead time of three months. Furthermore, this study also attempts to assist the government to improve water resources management. Hence, a system dynamics model of Touchien River, which is the most important river for public water supply in Hsinchu, is developed. The model consists of several important subsystems, including two reservoirs, water treatment plants and agricultural irrigation districts. Using the upstream flow generated by seasonal weather forecasting data, the model is able to simulate the storage of the two reservoirs and the distribution of water shortage. Moreover, the model can also provide the information under certain emergency scenarios, such as the accident or failure of a water treatment plant. At last, the performance of the proposed method and the original water resource management method that the government used were also compared. Keyword: Water Resource Management, Hydrology, Seasonal Climate Forecast, Reservoir, Early Warning, Drought

Holocene hydrological changes and human presence in NW Arabia: Insights from lipid biomarker analysis of the Tayma palaeolake sediment record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dräger, Nadine; Schwab, Valérie F.; Plessen, Birgit; Neugebauer, Ina; Dinies, Michèle; Engel, Max; Brauer, Achim; Gleixner, Gerd

2017-04-01

Holocene hydrological changes in NW Arabia and their influence on human migration and settlement are scarcely studied due to the lack of suitable climate archives. In particular, mechanisms and sources of increased moisture availability as well as the onset of oasis cultivation and culture during the early Holocene humid period are still not well understood. Here, we present the first Holocene lipid biomarker record of the Arabian Peninsula from the Tayma palaeolake sediment sequence. We applied a combined approach of aquatic, terrestrial and faecal lipid biomarker and compound specific hydrogen isotope analyses, which allow tracing both hydrological and anthropogenic signals in the sediment deposits. Our investigations focused on the early Holocene annually laminated (varved) sediment section (ca. 8500 to 8000 cal. a BP) presenting a phase of maximum lake levels probably caused by increased moisture availability (Dinies et al., 2015; Engel et al., 2012). During the early Holocene high lake level phase our results show increased concentrations of long-chain n-alkanes and faecal biomarkers suggesting grassland expansion and probably human occupation. The increase in grassland during this time is further supported by results from pollen analysis (Dinies et a., 2015). However, the increase in n-alkanes and faecal biomarkers did not occur simultaneously. While the rise of n-alkane concentrations predates the onset of varved sediments by about one century, the increase in faecal biomarker coincides with the beginning of varve preservation. Moreover, comparisons with sedimentological and geochemical data (i.e. diatom layer thickness, organic carbon content, δ13Ccarbonate) suggest a coincidence of highest concentrations of faecal biomarkers and increased lake productivity. We discuss possible causes for these coincidences including prehistoric human activities as well as climate and environmental changes. This study is a contribution to the research project "CLEAR

Holocene Climate in Northwest Greenland Inferred from Oxygen Isotopes of Preserved Aquatic Organic Material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasher, G. E.; Axford, Y.; McFarlin, J. M.; Kelly, M. A.; Osterberg, E. C.; Farnsworth, L. B.; Kotecki, P.

2015-12-01

Oxygen isotopes of paleo lake-water archived in subfossil aquatic organic material offer new insights into Arctic Holocene climate history. Here we present new constraints on the timing and magnitude of Holocene climate change in NW Greenland inferred from δ18O of chironomid head capsules, Cladocera ephippia, and aquatic macrophytes. δ18O of chironomids from surface sediments of multiple lakes in the region show consistent enrichment relative to lake-water (-18 to -22 ‰), on the order of 23 ‰. Lake-water δ18O collected during the summer of 2014 is comparable to modern and historical seasonal local meteoric water, and landscape position suggests dominantly precipitation inputs. Sediment cores recovered from two small, non-glacial lakes in 2014 near Thule Air Base capture continuous 7.7 kyr and 10.4 kyr records. δ18O of chironomids and macrophytes from Secret Lake decreases after 6 ka by 3 ‰ into the Neoglacial. Early Holocene values from Wax Lips Lake (informal name) are 3 to 4 ‰ higher than modern and decrease to the present, except for a large negative excursion ~5 ka. This is contemporaneous with a major change in stratigraphy and the hypothesized transient incursion of a regional, ice-dammed glacial lake system. At both lakes, declining δ18O from the early/middle to late Holocene is clearly recorded in multiple aquatic materials and is greater in magnitude than the mid to late Holocene changes in δ18O of the nearest ice core records (Agassiz and Camp Century, ~2 ‰). The temperature change of 4 to 6 °C inferred from this new δ18O approach is also larger than, but within the error of, chironomid assemblage based temperatures from Wax Lips Lake by McFarlin et al. (this meeting). This may indicate larger temperature changes at the ice sheet's margin than inferred from high-elevation ice core sites and/or some overprinting by enhanced evaporation of lake-water in the warmer climate of the early Holocene.

Drought - A Global Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lackner, S.; Barnwal, P.; von der Goltz, J.

2013-12-01

We investigate the lasting effects of early childhood exposure to drought on economic and health outcomes in a large multi-country dataset. By pooling all Demographic and Health Survey rounds for which household geocodes are available, we obtain an individual-level dataset covering 47 developing countries. Among other impact measures, we collect infant and child mortality data from 3.3m live births and data on stunting and wasting for 1.2m individuals, along with data on education, employment, wealth, marriage and childbearing later in life for similarly large numbers of respondents. Birth years vary from 1893 to 2012. We seek to improve upon existing work on the socio-economic impact of drought in a number of ways. First, we introduce from the hydrological literature a drought measure, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), that has been shown to closely proxy the Palmer drought index, but has far less demanding data requirements, and can be obtained globally and for long time periods. We estimate the SPI for 110 years on a global 0.5° grid, which allows us to assign drought histories to the geocoded individual data. Additionally, we leverage our large sample size to explicitly investigate both how drought impacts have changed over time as adaptation occurred at a varying pace in different locations, and the role of the regional extent of drought in determining impacts.

Acclimation of peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) to water stress through exposure to differing periods of early season drought

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) is able to withstand periods of water scarcity either in the early or late periods of the growing season, but suffers significant stress and yield loss during drought periods in mid-season, or the period coinciding with peak flower production and pod maturation. In fact...

Drought in Southwestern United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

The southwestern United States pined for water in late March and early April 2007. This image is based on data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite from March 22 through April 6, 2007, and it shows the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, or NDVI, for the period. In this NDVI color scale, green indicates areas of healthier-than-usual vegetation, and only small patches of green appear in this image, near the California-Nevada border and in Utah. Larger areas of below-normal vegetation are more common, especially throughout California. Pale yellow indicates areas with generally average vegetation. Gray areas appear where no data were available, likely due to persistent clouds or snow cover. According to the April 10, 2007, update from the U.S. Drought Monitor, most of the southwestern United Sates, including Utah, Nevada, California, and Arizona, experienced moderate to extreme drought. The hardest hit areas were southeastern California and southwestern Arizona. Writing for the Drought Monitor, David Miskus of the Joint Agricultural Weather Facility reported that March 2007 had been unusually dry for the southwestern United States. While California's and Utah's reservoir storage was only slightly below normal, reservoir storage was well below normal for New Mexico and Arizona. In early April, an international research team published an online paper in Science noting that droughts could become more common for the southwestern United States and northern Mexico, as these areas were already showing signs of drying. Relying on the same computer models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released in early 2007, the researchers who published in Science concluded that global warming could make droughts more common, not just in the American Southwest, but also in semiarid regions of southern Europe, Mediterranean northern Africa, and the Middle East.

Preliminary Study of Late Pleistocene to Early Holocene Plant Food Strategies in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi Tang, M.; Liu, X.; Fritz, G.; Zhao, Z.

2017-12-01

In recent decades, studies on the domestication and early cultivation of seed crops have contributed significantly to how we understand human-plant interactions, and their impact on human social organisation and the environment. It is becoming clear, however, that plants have been critical to the human diet for much longer and in more diverse ways than previously assumed. This paper is a preliminary attempt at identifying and addressing early prehistoric plant food strategies in China. In particular, very little is known about the use of vegetatively propagated plants, despite their significant representation in modern crops. Many ingredients of Chinese medicine are also roots and tubers (or vegetative storage organs, VSOs). Unlike seed crops, however, we lack a systematic criterion for examining diagnostic characters of different VSO taxa in the archaeological record. To address this issue, we characterized commonly consumed and historically significant VSOs in China, by studying experimentally charred modern samples under the optical microscope and scanning electron microscope. We then compared the characteristics of these modern VSO samples against plant remains from Late Pleistocene to early Holocene archaeological sites in China, such as Zengpiyan (Guangxi), Zhaoguodong (Guizhou), and Jiahu (Henan) sites. We found that different taxa of VSOs can be differentiated by using multiple lines of evidence, including: shape and size of various cells, texture and arrangement of cell walls, as well as anatomical arrangements of organs, especially the vascular bundles. Though identification can be difficult when fragile cell structures have collapsed or deteriorated, more robust features are often preserved for diagnosis. Our results suggest that the potential for studying the role of vegetatively propagated plants in early human-environmental interactions is overlooked, and can be expanded significantly with further investment in their systematic identification.

Building a Framework in Improving Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, T.; Wall, N.; Haigh, T.; Shiferaw, A. S.; Beyene, S.; Demisse, G. B.; Zaitchik, B.

2015-12-01

Decision makers need a basic understanding of the prediction models and products of hydro-climatic extremes and their suitability in time and space for strategic resource and development planning to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. Advances in our ability to assess and predict climate extremes (e.g., droughts and floods) under evolving climate change suggest opportunity to improve management of climatic/hydrologic risk in agriculture and water resources. In the NASA funded project entitled, "Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies," we are attempting to develop a framework that uses dialogue between managers and scientists on how to enhance the use of models' outputs and prediction products in the GHA as well as improve the delivery of this information in ways that can be easily utilized by managers. This process is expected to help our multidisciplinary research team obtain feedback on the models and forecast products. In addition, engaging decision makers is essential in evaluating the use of drought and flood prediction models and products for decision-making processes in drought and flood management. Through this study, we plan to assess information requirements to implement a robust Early Warning Systems (EWS) by engaging decision makers in the process. This participatory process could also help the existing EWSs in Africa and to develop new local and regional EWSs. In this presentation, we report the progress made in the past two years of the NASA project.

Patterns of human occupation during the early Holocene in the Central Ebro Basin (NE Spain) in response to the 8.2 ka climatic event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Sampériz, P.; Utrilla, P.; Mazo, C.; Valero-Garcés, B.; Sopena, MC.; Morellón, M.; Sebastián, M.; Moreno, A.; Martínez-Bea, M.

2009-03-01

The Central Ebro River Basin (NE Spain) is the most northern area of truly semi-arid Mediterranean climate in Europe and prehistoric human occupation there has been strongly influenced by this extreme environmental condition. Modern climate conditions single out this region due to the harsh environment, characterised by the highest absolute summer temperatures of the Ebro River Basin. The Bajo Aragón region (SE Ebro River Basin) was intensively populated during the Early Holocene (9400-8200 cal yr BP) but the settlements were abandoned abruptly at around 8200 cal yr BP. We propose that this "archaeological silence" was caused by the regional impact of the global abrupt 8.2 ka cold event. Available regional paleoclimate archives demonstrate the existence of an aridity crisis then that interrupted the humid Early Holocene. That environmental crisis would have forced hunter-gatherer groups from the Bajo Aragón to migrate to regions with more favourable conditions (i.e. more humid mountainous areas) and only return in the Neolithic. Coherently, archaeological sites persist during this crisis in the nearby Iberian Range (Maestrazgo) and the North Ebro River area (Pre-Pyrenean mountains and along the northwestern Ebro Basin).

A mid-holocene fauna from Bear Den Cave, Sequoia National Park, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mead, Jim I.; McGinnis, Thomas W.; Keeley, Jon E.

2006-01-01

Test excavation of floor fill deposits in the first room in Bear Den Cave, Sequoia National Park, produced fossiliferous sediments down to at least 40 cm depth. Radiocarbon analysis of charcoal from this layer indicates an early-middle Holocene age of 7220 CAL BP. The fossil accumulation represents prey recovered from generations of ringtail (Bassariscus astutus) dung. Microvertebrate remains include salamanders, lizards, snakes, and mammals. The recovery of Aneides ferreus/vagransfrom early-middle Holocene deposits in Bear Den Cave is a first for this species group. Equally interesting is the recovery of Plethodon sp. Neither taxa live in the Sierra Nevada today. The fossil-rich deposits of Bear Den Cave indicate that future paleoecological studies will be productive in Sequoia National Park.

Unsupervised domain adaptation for early detection of drought stress in hyperspectral images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitter, P.; Steinrücken, J.; Römer, C.; Ballvora, A.; Léon, J.; Rascher, U.; Plümer, L.

2017-09-01

Hyperspectral images can be used to uncover physiological processes in plants if interpreted properly. Machine Learning methods such as Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Random Forests have been applied to estimate development of biomass and detect and predict plant diseases and drought stress. One basic requirement of machine learning implies, that training and testing is done in the same domain and the same distribution. Different genotypes, environmental conditions, illumination and sensors violate this requirement in most practical circumstances. Here, we present an approach, which enables the detection of physiological processes by transferring the prior knowledge within an existing model into a related target domain, where no label information is available. We propose a two-step transformation of the target features, which enables a direct application of an existing model. The transformation is evaluated by an objective function including additional prior knowledge about classification and physiological processes in plants. We have applied the approach to three sets of hyperspectral images, which were acquired with different plant species in different environments observed with different sensors. It is shown, that a classification model, derived on one of the sets, delivers satisfying classification results on the transformed features of the other data sets. Furthermore, in all cases early non-invasive detection of drought stress was possible.

Human-environment interaction during the Mesolithic- Neolithic transition in the NE Iberian Peninsula. Vegetation history, climate change and human impact during the Early-Middle Holocene in the Eastern Pre-Pyrenees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revelles, J.; Burjachs, F.; Palomo, A.; Piqué, R.; Iriarte, E.; Pérez-Obiol, R.; Terradas, X.

2018-03-01

The synthetic analysis of several pollen records from sub-Mediterranean lowland Pre-Pyrenean regions evidences expansion of forests during the Early Holocene in Northeastern Iberia and the establishment of dense deciduous broadleaf forests during the Holocene Climate Optimum. Pollen records show the broadleaf deciduous forests resilience against cooling phases during the Mid-Holocene period, with slight regressions of oak woodlands and expansion of conifers or xerophytic taxa contemporary to some cooling episodes (i.e. 8.2 and 7.2 kyr cal. BP). Major vegetation changes influenced by climate change occurred in the transition to the Late Holocene, in terms of the start of a succession from broadleaf deciduous forests to evergreen sclerophyllous woodlands. The lack of evidence of previous occupation seems to support the Neolithisation of the NE Iberian Peninsula as a result of a process of migration of farming populations to uninhabited or sparsely inhabited territories. In that context, remarkable changes in vegetation were recorded from 7.3 kyr cal. BP onwards in the Lake Banyoles area, where the establishment of permanent farming settlements caused the deforestation of oak woodlands. In La Garrotxa region, short deforestation episodes affecting broadleaf deciduous forests, together with expansion of grasslands and presence of Cerealia-t were documented in the period 7.4-6.0 kyr cal. BP. Finally, in the coastal area, where less evidence of Early Neolithic occupations is recorded, evidence of Neolithic impact is reflected in the presence of Cerealia-t in 6.5-6.2 kyr cal. BP, but no strong human transformation of landscape was carried out until more recent chronologies.

Structural adjustment and drought in Zambia.

PubMed

Mulwanda, M

1995-06-01

While drought is not uncommon in Zambia, the country is now facing the worst drought in history. The monetary and social costs will be enormous. Although it is too early to measure the economic and social costs of the drought on Zambia, it is obvious that the impact is catastrophic on a country whose economy is under pressure. The drought will affect the structural adjustment programme (SAP) unveiled by the new government which has embraced the market economy. The country has imported, and will continue to import, large quantities of maize and other foodstuffs, a situation likely to strain the balance of payments. Earlier targets with regard to export earnings, reductions in the budget deficit, and GDP growth as contained in the Policy Framework Paper (PFP) are no longer attainable due to the effects of the drought.

An Early Holocene Record of Cimex (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) From Western North America.

PubMed

Adams, Martin E; Jenkins, Dennis L

2017-07-01

The subfossil remains of 14 cimicids (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) were recovered during archaeological investigations of the Paisley Five Mile Point Cave site (35LK3400), an exceptionally well-dated (n = 229 radiocarbon dates) late Pleistocene-early Holocene rock shelter site in south-central Oregon. Nine of the specimens have been assigned to three modern species of Nearctic Cimicidae-Cimex antennatus Usinger & Ueshima, Cimex latipennis Usinger & Ueshima, and Cimex pilosellus (Horváth)-whereas the remaining five individuals were too fragmentary to positively identify. The chronology of the insect assemblage puts one specimen at circa 5,100 calibrated years before present (cal. yr BP), and the remaining 13 range in age from 9,400 to almost 11,000 cal. yr BP. Although fossil and subfossil cimicid remains have been recovered at other archaeological sites, the fossil record for bed bugs is largely undocumented. The Paisley Caves specimens thus far represent the oldest remains of the genus in probable contact with humans on record. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Regional drought early warning, impacts, and assessment for water and agriculture in the lower Rio Grande basin, 2016-2017

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

USDA’s Southern Plains Climate Hub (SPCH) and the University of Oklahoma’s Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) contributed to a broad, multi-partnered effort to provide drought early warning information to water and agriculture management interests in the middle and lower Rio Grande ba...

Detecting early signs of heat and drought stress in Phoenix dactylifera (date palm)

PubMed Central

Safronov, Omid; Kreuzwieser, Jürgen; Haberer, Georg; Alyousif, Mohamed S.; Schulze, Waltraud; Al-Harbi, Naif; Arab, Leila; Ache, Peter; Stempfl, Thomas; Kruse, Joerg; Mayer, Klaus X.; Hedrich, Rainer; Rennenberg, Heinz

2017-01-01

Plants adapt to the environment by either long-term genome evolution or by acclimatization processes where the cellular processes and metabolism of the plant are adjusted within the existing potential in the genome. Here we studied the adaptation strategies in date palm, Phoenix dactylifera, under mild heat, drought and combined heat and drought by transcriptomic and metabolomic profiling. In transcriptomics data, combined heat and drought resembled heat response, whereas in metabolomics data it was more similar to drought. In both conditions, soluble carbohydrates, such as fucose, and glucose derivatives, were increased, suggesting a switch to carbohydrate metabolism and cell wall biogenesis. This result is consistent with the evidence from transcriptomics and cis-motif analysis. In addition, transcriptomics data showed transcriptional activation of genes related to reactive oxygen species in all three conditions (drought, heat, and combined heat and drought), suggesting increased activity of enzymatic antioxidant systems in cytosol, chloroplast and peroxisome. Finally, the genes that were differentially expressed in heat and combined heat and drought stresses were significantly enriched for circadian and diurnal rhythm motifs, suggesting new stress avoidance strategies. PMID:28570677

Holocene and latest Pleistocene climate and glacier fluctuations in Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford H.; Axford, Yarrow; Ólafsdóttir, Sædís

2009-10-01

Multiproxy climate records from Iceland document complex changes in terrestrial climate and glacier fluctuations through the Holocene, revealing some coherent patterns of change as well as significant spatial variability. Most studies on the Last Glacial Maximum and subsequent deglaciation reveal a dynamic Iceland Ice Sheet (IIS) that responded abruptly to changes in ocean currents and sea level. The IIS broke up catastrophically around 15 ka as the Polar Front migrated northward and sea level rose. Indications of regional advance or halt of the glaciers are seen in late Alleröd/early Younger Dryas time and again in PreBoreal time. Due to the apparent rise of relative sea level in Iceland during this time, most sites contain evidence for fluctuating, tidewater glacier termini occupying paleo fjords and bays. The time between the end of the Younger Dryas and the Preboreal was characterized by repeated jökulhlaups that eroded glacial deposits. By 10.3 ka, the main ice sheet was in rapid retreat across the highlands of Iceland. The Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) was reached after 8 ka with land temperatures estimated to be 3 °C higher than the 1961-1990 reference, and net precipitation similar to modern. Such temperatures imply largely ice-free conditions across Iceland in the early to mid-Holocene. Several marine and lacustrine sediment climate proxies record substantial summer temperature depression between 8.5 and 8 ka, but no moraines have been detected from that time. Termination of the HTM and onset of Neoglacial cooling took place sometime after 6 ka with increased glacier activity between 4.5 and 4.0 ka, intensifying between 3.0 and 2.5 ka. Although a distinct warming during the Medieval Warm Period is not dramatically apparent in Icelandic records, the interval from ca AD 0 to 1200 is commonly characterized by relative stability with slow rates of change. The literature most commonly describes Little Ice Age moraines (ca AD 1250-1900) as representing the

Holocene shifts of the southern westerlies across the South Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, Ines; Chiessi, Cristiano M.; Prange, Matthias; Mulitza, Stefan; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Varma, Vidya; Henrich, Ruediger

2015-02-01

The southern westerly winds (SWW) exert a crucial influence over the world ocean and climate. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of the Holocene temporal and spatial evolution of the SWW remains a significant challenge due to the sparsity of high-resolution marine archives and appropriate SWW proxies. Here we present a north-south transect of high-resolution planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotope records from the western South Atlantic. Our proxy records reveal Holocene migrations of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC), a highly sensitive feature for changes in the position and strength of the northern portion of the SWW. Through the tight coupling of the BMC position to the large-scale wind field, the records allow a quantitative reconstruction of Holocene latitudinal displacements of the SWW across the South Atlantic. Our data reveal a gradual poleward movement of the SWW by about 1-1.5° from the early to the mid-Holocene. Afterward, variability in the SWW is dominated by millennial scale displacements on the order of 1° in latitude with no recognizable longer-term trend. These findings are confronted with results from a state-of-the-art transient Holocene climate simulation using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Proxy-inferred and modeled SWW shifts compare qualitatively, but the model underestimates both orbitally forced multimillennial and internal millennial SWW variability by almost an order of magnitude. The underestimated natural variability implies a substantial uncertainty in model projections of future SWW shifts.

Liquefaction along Late Pleistocene to early Holocene Faults as Revealed by Lidar in Northwest Tasmania, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, J.; Gardner, T.

2016-12-01

In northwest Tasmania well-preserved mid-Holocene beach ridges with maximum radiocarbon ages of 5.25 ka occur along the coast; inland are a parallel set of lower relief beach ridges of probable MIS 5e age. The latter are cut by northeast-striking faults clearly visible on LIDAR images, with a maximum vertical displacement (evident as difference in topographic elevation) of 3 m. Also distinct on the LIDAR images are large sand boils along the fault lines; they are up to 5 m in diameter and 2-3 m high and mostly occur on the hanging wall close to the fault traces. Without LIDAR it would have been almost impossible to distinguish either the fault scarps or the sand boils. Excavations through the sand boils show that they are massive, with no internal structure, suggesting that they formed in a single event. They are composed of well-sorted, very fine white sand, identical to the sand in the underlying beach ridges. The sand boils overlie a peaty paleosol; this formed in the tea-tree swamp that formerly covered the area, and has been offset along the faults. Radiocarbon dating of the buried organic-rich paleosol gave ages of 14.8-7.2 ka, suggesting that the faulting is latest Pleistocene to early Holocene in age; it occurred prior to deposition of the mid-Holocene beach ridges, which are not offset. The beach ridge sediments are up to 7 m thick and contain an iron-cemented hard pan 1-3 m below the surface. The water table is very shallow and close to the ground surface, so the sands of the beach ridges are mostly saturated. During faulting these sands experienced extensive liquefaction. The resulting sand boils rose to a substantial height of 2-3 m, probably possibly reflecting the elevation of the potentiometric surface within the confined part of the beach ridge sediments below the iron-cemented hard pan. Motion on the faults was predominantly dip slip (shown by an absence of horizontal offset) and probably reverse, which is consistent with the present-day northwest

Organic carbon accumulation and reactivity in central Swedish lakes during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chmiel, H.; Kokic, J.; Niggemann, J.; Dittmar, T.; Sobek, S.

2012-04-01

Sedimentation and burial of particulate organic carbon (POC), received from terrestrial sources and from lake internal primary production, are responsible for the progressive accumulation and long-term storage of organic matter in lake basins. For lakes in the boreal zone of central Sweden it can be presumed, that the onset of POC accumulation occurred during the early Holocene (˜8000 BP.) after the retreat of the Scandinavian ice sheet. In this study we investigated carbon mass accumulation rates (CMARs), as well as sources and reactivity of deposited organic material, for seven lakes in central Sweden (60°N, 15°E), in order to obtain a detailed temporal resolution of carbon burial and preservation in boreal lakes. Sediment long-cores were sampled in March 2011 from the ice, and CMARs were calculated from water contents, dry bulk densities, carbon contents and radiocarbon (14C) ages of the depth profiles. To indicate the sources of the organic material and characterize its diagenetic state, we determined carbon-nitrogen ratios (C/N) as well as amounts and compositions of lignin phenols. The transitions from organic rich sediment layers to glacial till deposits were found to be in sediment depths of ˜3 m in each lake. POC contents were on average highest (25-34 wt. % C), in small lakes (≤ 0.07 km2) and lowest (10-18 wt. % C) in the larger lakes (≥ 165 km2). The CMARs over the Holocene showed significant variations and were on average lower in the early Holocene, compared to recent accumulation rates. C/N values and the composition of lignin phenols further provided indications of important changes in organic matter source and reactivity over the Holocene. In summary, our data suggest that boreal lake sediments were a significantly stronger sink for organic carbon during the last ~150 years than during earlier periods of the Holocene.

Future opportunities and challenges in remote sensing of drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Sheffield, Justin; Doorn, Brad; Zhan, Xiwu; Rodell, Matt; Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Verdin, James P.

2012-01-01

The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation. Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were also developed during this time period, and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers such as AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through their near-daily, global observations of Earth's land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing of drought was limited by the relatively few spectral bands of operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short period of observational record. Remote sensing advancements are of paramount importance given the increasing demand for tools that can provide accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions to facilitate proactive decision making (NIDIS, 2007). Satellite-based approaches are key to addressing significant gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage of current surface station instrument networks providing key moisture observations (e.g., rainfall, snow, soil moisture, ground water, and ET) over the United States and globally (NIDIS, 2007). Improved monitoring capabilities will be particularly important given increases in spatial extent, intensity, and duration of drought events observed in some regions of the world, as reported in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (IPCC, 2007). The risk of drought is anticipated to further increase in some regions in response to climatic changes in the hydrologic cycle related to evaporation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow cover (Burke et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; USGCRP, 2009). Numerous national, regional, and

Future Opportunities and Challenges in Remote Sensing of Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Sheffield, Justin; Doorn, Brad; Zhan, Xiwu; Rodell, Matt

2011-01-01

The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation. Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were also developed during this time period, and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers such as AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through their near-daily, global observations of Earth's land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing of drought was limited by the relatively few spectral bands of operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short period of observational record. Remote sensing advancements are of paramount importance given the increasing demand for tools that can provide accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions to facilitate proactive decision making (NIDIS, 2007). Satellite-based approaches are key to addressing significant gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage of current surface station instrument networks providing key moisture observations (e.g., rainfall, snow, soil moisture, ground water, and ET) over the United States and globally (NIDIS, 2007). Improved monitoring capabilities will be particularly important given increases in spatial extent, intensity, and duration of drought events observed in some regions of the world, as reported in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (IPCC, 2007). The risk of drought is anticipated to further increase in some regions in response to climatic changes in the hydrologic cycle related to evaporation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow cover (Burke et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; USGCRP, 2009). Numerous national, regional, and

Holocene evolution of the northeastern corner of the Nile Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sneh, A.; Weissbrod, T.; Ehrlich, A.; Horowitz, A.; Moshkovitz, S.; Rosenfeld, A.

1986-09-01

The constructive phase of the modern Nile Delta, as manifested in a 48-m section drilled east of the Suez Canal, commenced in very early Holocene times. Sands rich in marine fauna were deposited in the littoral zone and the shoreline was more than 20 km landward of its present-day position. Subsequently, clays and silts were dumped from the Nile distributaries and the marine faunal spectrum became very limited and brackish. Later in early and middle Holocene times the sediments deposited were rich in freshwater, delta-plain diatoms and pollen and in allochthonous fern spores from the tropics, indicating proximity of a distributary mouth. The middle part of the section (22.5-17.5 m) is very poor in faunal and floral remains; pollen grains from sabkha vegetation are abundant. The environment, which seems lagoonal and slightly hypersaline, is related to the sea regression in middle Holocene times. Euryhaline pelecypods, dating from about 3000 yr B.P., are abundant around the 8-m depth. Upward, there is an increase in pollen grains from sabkhas; the section is poor in diatoms and those present are mostly euryhaline and lagoonal. Allochthonous spores derived from the nearby Pelusiac Branch are abundant. Between 3000 and 2000 yr B.P. the constructive phase of the modern delta terminated and winnowed sands began accreting in front of the delta plain.

How useful are meteorological drought indicators to assess agricultural drought impacts across Europe?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmair, Sophie; Tanguy, Maliko; Hannaford, Jamie; Stahl, Kerstin

2016-04-01

Drought monitoring and early warning (M&EW) is an important component of agricultural and silvicultural risk management. Meteorological indicators such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are widely used in operational M&EW systems and for drought hazard assessment. Meteorological drought yet does not necessarily equate to agricultural drought given differences in drought susceptibility, e.g. crop-specific vulnerability, soil water holding capacity, irrigation and other management practices. How useful are meteorological indicators such as SPI to assess agricultural drought? Would the inclusion of vegetation indicators into drought M&EW systems add value for the agricultural sector? To answer these questions, it is necessary to investigate the link between meteorological indicators and agricultural impacts of drought. Crop yield or loss data is one source of information for drought impacts, yet mostly available as aggregated data at the annual scale. Remotely sensed vegetation stress data offer another possibility to directly assess agricultural impacts with high spatial and temporal resolution and are already used by some M&EW systems. At the same time, reduced crop yield and satellite-based vegetation stress potentially suffer from multi-causality. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate the relation between meteorological drought indicators and agricultural drought impacts for Europe, and to intercompare different agricultural impact variables. As drought indicators we used SPI and the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) for different accumulation periods. The focus regarding drought impact variables was on remotely sensed vegetation stress derived from MODIS NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and LST (Land Surface Temperature) data, but the analysis was complemented with crop yield data and text-based information from the European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDII) for selected countries. A correlation analysis

Testing the apatite depletion hypothesis for early Holocene ecosystem acidification using the lake sediment record at Krâkenes, Norway.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thrasher, I. M.; Boyle, J. F.; Chiverrell, R. C.; Plater, A. J.

2009-04-01

Lakes created by retreating ice at the end of the last glaciation underwent rapid acidification during the first few thousand years of their existence, a phenomenon that has been attributed in part to progressive leaching of soil bases since it was discovered more than 80 years ago. Though a role for leaching is still acknowledged, the most recent studies see this as subordinate to the effects of biological and climatic changes initiated by deglaciation, chiefly primary vegetation succession and species immigration. However, we propose a simpler alternative explanation, based on the geochemical modelling of runoff acidity. This shows that the extent and timing of early Holocene lake acidification in eight published palaeoecological records can be explained by leaching of the calcium phosphate mineral apatite from the granitic till soils of their catchments, at a rate controlled by simple dissolution kinetic factors. If confirmed, this hypothesis has important implications for our understanding of long-term lake ecosystem development. Not only does it mean that the mechanism is inherently irreversible, in contrast to the alternative ecological and climatic mechanisms which are not. Also, it reinforces the view that long-term ecosystem modelling cannot safely neglect nutrient limitation, as is currently the practice in widely used global dynamic vegetation models. Here we present a NERC-funded programme of research that uses the sediment mineral record of Kråkenes (western Norway), the best studied early Holocene lake sediment sequence in the world, to provide a simple, critical and unambiguous test of this hypothesis.

Quantitative Holocene climatic reconstructions for the lower Yangtze region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianyong; Dodson, John; Yan, Hong; Wang, Weiming; Innes, James B.; Zong, Yongqiang; Zhang, Xiaojian; Xu, Qinghai; Ni, Jian; Lu, Fengyan

2018-02-01

Quantitative proxy-based and high-resolution palaeoclimatic datasets are scarce for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River (LYR) basin. This region is in a transitional vegetation zone which is climatologically sensitive; and as a birthplace for prehistorical civilization in China, it is important to understand how palaeoclimatic dynamics played a role in affecting cultural development in the region. We present a pollen-based and regionally-averaged Holocene climatic twin-dataset for mean total annual precipitation (PANN) and mean annual temperature (TANN) covering the last 10,000 years for the LYR region. This is based on the technique of weighted averaging-partial least squares regression to establish robust calibration models for obtaining reliable climatic inferences. The pollen-based reconstructions generally show an early Holocene climatic optimum with both abundant monsoonal rainfall and warm thermal conditions, and a declining pattern of both PANN and TANN values in the middle to late Holocene. The main driving forces behind the Holocene climatic changes in the LYR area are likely summer solar insolation associated with tropical or subtropical macro-scale climatic circulations such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Regional multi-proxy comparisons indicate that the Holocene variations in precipitation and temperature for the LYR region display an in-phase relationship with other related proxy records from southern monsoonal China and the Indian monsoon-influenced regions, but are inconsistent with the Holocene moisture or temperature records from northern monsoonal China and the westerly-dominated region in northwestern China. Overall, our comprehensive palaeoclimatic dataset and models may be significant tools for understanding the Holocene Asian monsoonal evolution and for anticipating its future dynamics in eastern Asia.

An Overview of the NOAA Drought Task Force

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, S.; Mo, K.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Wood, A.

2012-01-01

The charge of the NOAA Drought Task Force is to coordinate and facilitate the various MAPP-funded research efforts with the overall goal of achieving significant advances in understanding and in the ability to monitor and predict drought over North America. In order to achieve this, the task force has developed a Drought Test-bed that individual research groups can use to test/evaluate methods and ideas. Central to this is a focus on three high profile North American droughts (1998-2004 western US drought, 2006-2007 SE US drought, 2011- current Tex-Mex drought) to facilitate collaboration among projects, including the development of metrics to assess the quality of monitoring and prediction products, and the development of an experimental drought monitoring and prediction system that incorporates and assesses recent advances. This talk will review the progress and plans of the task force, including efforts to help advance official national drought products, and the development of early warning systems by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). Coordination with other relevant national and international efforts such as the emerging NMME capabilities and the international effort to develop a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) will be discussed.

A late Holocene paleoenvironmental reconstruction from Agua Caliente, southern Belize, linked to regional climate variability and cultural change at the Maya polity of Uxbenká

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Megan K.; Prufer, Keith M.; Culleton, Brendan J.; Kennett, Douglas J.

2014-07-01

We report high-resolution macroscopic charcoal, pollen and sedimentological data for Agua Caliente, a freshwater lagoon located in southern Belize, and infer a late Holocene record of human land-use/climate interactions for the nearby prehistoric Maya center of Uxbenká. Land-use activities spanning the initial clearance of forests for agriculture through the drought-linked Maya collapse and continuing into the historic recolonization of the region are all reflected in the record. Human land alteration in association with swidden agriculture is evident early in the record during the Middle Preclassic starting ca. 2600 cal yr BP. Fire slowly tapered off during the Late and Terminal Classic, consistent with the gradual political demise and depopulation of the Uxbenká polity sometime between ca. 1150 and 950 cal yr BP, during a period of multiple droughts evident in a nearby speleothem record. Fire activity was at its lowest during the Maya Postclassic ca. 950-430 cal yr BP, but rose consistent with increasing recolonization of the region between ca. 430 cal yr BP and present. These data suggest that this environmental record provides both a proxy for 2800 years of cultural change, including colonization, growth, decline, and reorganization of regional populations, and an independent confirmation of recent paleoclimate reconstructions from the same region.

Late Holocene interdecadal climate variability in the Sahel: inferences from a marine dust record offshore Senegal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, I.; Stuut, J.-B.; Mollenhauer, G.; Mulitza, S.; Zabel, M.

2009-04-01

Present-day climate in northwestern Africa strongly depends on the avaiability of water. At least since the Pliocene the Saharan Desert and the semiarid Sahel belt (tropical North Afrika) have been frequently affected by sudden shifts to more arid climate. The rate of change from arid to humid conditions is presently under heavy debate (e.g., deMenocal et al., 2001, Kröpelin et al., 2008). A recent example of abrupt droughts occurred in the early 70's and 80's of the last century. In this study we compare different high-resolution marine sediment records of Sahel climate variability from the Senegal mud belt, northwest Africa. Marine sediment cores show the variations of terrigenous input (both aeolian dust and fluvial matter) from the African continent. Due to their different distinctive grain-size distributions, aeolian dust and fluvial mud can be recognised and quantified in marine sediments (e.g., Stuut et al., 2002). Based on these variations in the grain-size distributions of the terrigenous sediment fraction, deconvolved with an end-member modelling algorithm (Weltje, 1997), are used to reconstruct rainfall variability and dust production on land for the last 4,000 years. References P. B. deMenocal, et al. (2001). Late Holocene Cultural Responses to Climate Change During the Holocene. Science 292, 667 S. Kröpelin, et al. (2008) Response to Comment on "Climate-Driven Ecosystem Succession in the Sahara: The Past 6000 Years" Science 322, 1326c G. J. Weltje (1997) End-member modeling of compositional data: Numerical-statistical algorithms for solving the explicit mixing problem. Mathematical Geology 9, 4

New stratigraphic constraints on Holocene glacier advances at Mt. Baker, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, D.; Ryane, C.; Tucker, D.; Davis, T.; Bowerman, N.; Osborn, G.; Clague, J.; Menounos, B.; Scott, K.; Guilderson, T.; Riedel, J.; Steig, E.

2007-12-01

New data from a lake sediment core and moraine exposures at Mt. Baker, WA, indicate that a purported early Holocene glacier advance occurred earlier, likely at the end of the Pleistocene. Previous workers used 14C ages associated with small cirque moraines on the SW flank of Mt. Baker, along with the apparent absence of a distinctive scoria (set SC; 8850 14C yr BP, ~9900 cal yr BP) from other moraines on Mt. Baker, as evidence for an advance at ~8400 14C yr BP (~9450 cal yr BP). Such an advance is important to test because it would contrast with glacial records throughout most of the rest of western North America. A 1.2-m sediment core collected from Pocket Lake, which is dammed by one of the previously dated cirque moraines, contains three tephras: Baker set BA (~5800 14C yr BP; 6600 cal yr BP), Mazama ash (6800 14C yr BP; 7600 cal yr BP), and a basal set of ash beds that are tentatively identified as Baker set SC. The lowest macrofossil in the core, ~2 cm above the top of the basal ash beds, yielded an age of 7640 ± 50 14C yr BP (~8400 cal yr BP), consistent with the tephra being SC. Initial geochemical analyses of the tephra also support this identification. These findings indicate that the previous age on the cirque moraine, from organics near the surface of the till, provides a minimum rather than a direct age for the advance that formed the moraine. A 14C age of 11,400 ± 110 14C yr BP (~13,300 cal yr BP) on bulk sediments below the basal ash is likely contaminated and therefore too old. Tephra overlying other ridges at Mt. Baker that were previously identified as post-SC, early-Holocene moraines has been identified as set SC. The ridges thus are actually pre-SC rather than post-SC in age; they may not be moraines in any event. Meanwhile, abundant 14C ages on tills below Deming Glacier indicate both Younger Dryas and Neoglacial advances, but no early Holocene advances. Together, these observations indicate that glaciers in the Mt. Baker area advanced during

Identification of Rapeseed MicroRNAs Involved in Early Stage Seed Germination under Salt and Drought Stresses

PubMed Central

Jian, Hongju; Wang, Jia; Wang, Tengyue; Wei, Lijuan; Li, Jiana; Liu, Liezhao

2016-01-01

Drought and salinity are severe and wide-ranging abiotic stresses that substantially affect crop germination, development and productivity, and seed germination is the first critical step in plant growth and development. To comprehensively investigate small-RNA targets and improve our understanding of miRNA-mediated post-transcriptional regulation networks during Brassica napus seed imbibition under drought and salt stresses, we constructed three small-RNA libraries from B. napus variety ZS11 embryos exposed to salt (200 mM NaCl, denoted “S”), drought (200 g L−1 PEG-6000, denoted “D”), and distilled water (denoted “CK”) during imbibition and sequenced them using an Illumina Genome Analyzer. A total of 11,528,557, 12,080,081, and 12,315,608 raw reads were obtained from the CK, D, and S libraries, respectively. Further analysis identified 85 known miRNAs belonging to 31 miRNA families and 882 novel miRNAs among the three libraries. Comparison of the D and CK libraries revealed significant down-regulation of six miRNA families, miR156, miR169, miR860, miR399, miR171, and miR395, whereas only miR172 was significantly up-regulated. In contrast, comparison of the S library with the CK library showed significant down-regulation of only two miRNA families: miRNA393 and miRNA399. Putative targets for 336, 376, and 340 novel miRNAs were successfully predicted in the CK, D, and S libraries, respectively, and 271 miRNA families and 20 target gene families [including disease resistance protein (DIRP), drought-responsive family protein (DRRP), early responsive to dehydration stress protein (ERD), stress-responsive alpha-beta barrel domain protein (SRAP), and salt tolerance homolog2 (STH2)] were confirmed as being core miRNAs and genes involved in the seed imbibition response to salt and drought stresses. The sequencing results were partially validated by quantitative RT-PCR for both conserved and novel miRNAs as well as the predicted target genes. Our data suggest

Timing and nature of Holocene glacier advances at the northwestern end of the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Sourav; Owen, Lewis A.; Orr, Elizabeth N.; Caffee, Marc W.

2018-05-01

Holocene glacial chronostratigraphies are developed for four glaciated valleys at the northwestern end of the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen using geomorphic mapping and cosmogenic 10Be surface exposure dating. The study areas include the Hamtah valley in the Lahul Himalaya, and the Karzok, Lato and upper Stok valleys in Zanskar. Five local glacial stages are dated to ∼10.4, ∼6.1-3.3, ∼2.1-0.9, ∼0.7-0.4, and ∼0.3-0.2 ka based on 49 new moraine boulder ages. Large age dispersions are evident for each of the local glacial stages. This is especially the case for ∼6.1-3.3 and ∼2.1-0.9 ka, which is likely a result of prior and/or incomplete exposures in very young moraine boulders. An additional compilation of 187 published 10Be moraine boulder ages help define seven Himalayan Holocene regional glacial stages (HHs) for the northwestern end of the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen. These HHs date to ∼10.9-9.3, ∼8.2-7.4, ∼6.9-4.3, ∼4.5-2.8, ∼2.7-1.8, ∼1.8-0.9, and <1 ka. Early Holocene glacier advances were generally more extensive and had larger equilibrium-line altitude depressions (ΔELA = ∼425 ± 229 m) than glacier advances during the mid-Holocene (ΔELA = ∼141 ± 106) and late Holocene (ΔELA = ∼124 ± 121 m). The early Holocene glacier advances likely correspond to orbitally-forced northerly migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and enhanced summer monsoon. The timing of the majority of HHs during mid- and late Holocene corresponds well with the North Atlantic cooling that is likely teleconnected via mid-latitude westerlies, particularly during ∼8 ka and after ∼5 ka. These chronostratigraphies suggest that Holocene glaciation in the northwestern part of the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen is largely influenced by long-term orbital forcing amplified by large-scale migration of the Earth's thermal equator and the associated hemispheric oceanic-atmospheric systems.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis induces strigolactone biosynthesis under drought and improves drought tolerance in lettuce and tomato.

PubMed

Ruiz-Lozano, Juan Manuel; Aroca, Ricardo; Zamarreño, Ángel María; Molina, Sonia; Andreo-Jiménez, Beatriz; Porcel, Rosa; García-Mina, José María; Ruyter-Spira, Carolien; López-Ráez, Juan Antonio

2016-02-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) symbiosis alleviates drought stress in plants. However, the intimate mechanisms involved, as well as its effect on the production of signalling molecules associated with the host plant-AM fungus interaction remains largely unknown. In the present work, the effects of drought on lettuce and tomato plant performance and hormone levels were investigated in non-AM and AM plants. Three different water regimes were applied, and their effects were analysed over time. AM plants showed an improved growth rate and efficiency of photosystem II than non-AM plants under drought from very early stages of plant colonization. The levels of the phytohormone abscisic acid, as well as the expression of the corresponding marker genes, were influenced by drought stress in non-AM and AM plants. The levels of strigolactones and the expression of corresponding marker genes were affected by both AM symbiosis and drought. The results suggest that AM symbiosis alleviates drought stress by altering the hormonal profiles and affecting plant physiology in the host plant. In addition, a correlation between AM root colonization, strigolactone levels and drought severity is shown, suggesting that under these unfavourable conditions, plants might increase strigolactone production in order to promote symbiosis establishment to cope with the stress. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Patagonian and southern South Atlantic view of Holocene climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, M. R.; Schaefer, J. M.; Strelin, J. A.; Denton, G. H.; Anderson, R. F.; Vandergoes, M. J.; Finkel, R. C.; Schwartz, R.; Travis, S. G.; Garcia, J. L.; Martini, M. A.; Nielsen, S. H. H.

2016-06-01

We present a comprehensive 10Be chronology for Holocene moraines in the Lago Argentino basin, on the east side of the South Patagonian Icefield. We focus on three different areas, where prior studies show ample glacier moraine records exist because they were formed by outlet glaciers sensitive to climate change. The 10Be dated records are from the Lago Pearson, Herminita Península-Brazo Upsala, and Lago Frías areas, which span a distance of almost 100 km adjacent to the modern Icefield. New 10Be ages show that expanded glaciers and moraine building events occurred at least at 6120 ± 390 (n = 13), 4450 ± 220 (n = 7), 1450 or 1410 ± 110 (n = 18), 360 ± 30 (n = 5), and 240 ± 20 (n = 8) years ago. Furthermore, other less well-dated glacier expansions of the Upsala Glacier occurred between 1400 and ∼1000 and ∼2300 and ∼2000 years ago. The most extensive glaciers occurred over the interval from ∼6100 to ∼4500 years ago, and their margins over the last ∼600 years were well within and lower than those in the middle Holocene. The 10Be ages agree with 14C-limiting data for the glacier histories in this area. We then link southern South American, adjacent South Atlantic, and other Southern Hemisphere records to elucidate broader regional patterns of climate and their possible causes. In the early Holocene, a far southward position of the westerly winds fostered warmth, small Patagonian glaciers, and reduced sea ice coverage over the South Atlantic. Although we infer a pronounced southward displacement of the westerlies during the early Holocene, these conditions did not occur throughout the southern mid-high latitudes, an important exception being over the southwest Pacific sector. Subsequently, a northward locus and/or expansion of the winds over the Patagonia-South Atlantic sector promoted the largest glaciers between ∼6100 and ∼4500 years ago and greatest sea ice coverage. Over the last few millennia, the South Patagonian Icefield has experienced

Plant diversity does not buffer drought effects on early-stage litter mass loss rates and microbial properties.

PubMed

Vogel, Anja; Eisenhauer, Nico; Weigelt, Alexandra; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael

2013-09-01

Human activities are decreasing biodiversity and changing the climate worldwide. Both global change drivers have been shown to affect ecosystem functioning, but they may also act in concert in a non-additive way. We studied early-stage litter mass loss rates and soil microbial properties (basal respiration and microbial biomass) during the summer season in response to plant species richness and summer drought in a large grassland biodiversity experiment, the Jena Experiment, Germany. In line with our expectations, decreasing plant diversity and summer drought decreased litter mass loss rates and soil microbial properties. In contrast to our hypotheses, however, this was only true for mass loss of standard litter (wheat straw) used in all plots, and not for plant community-specific litter mass loss. We found no interactive effects between global change drivers, that is, drought reduced litter mass loss rates and soil microbial properties irrespective of plant diversity. High mass loss rates of plant community-specific litter and low responsiveness to drought relative to the standard litter indicate that soil microbial communities were adapted to decomposing community-specific plant litter material including lower susceptibility to dry conditions during summer months. Moreover, higher microbial enzymatic diversity at high plant diversity may have caused elevated mass loss of standard litter. Our results indicate that plant diversity loss and summer drought independently impede soil processes. However, soil decomposer communities may be highly adapted to decomposing plant community-specific litter material, even in situations of environmental stress. Results of standard litter mass loss moreover suggest that decomposer communities under diverse plant communities are able to cope with a greater variety of plant inputs possibly making them less responsive to biotic changes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Alkenone-based reconstructions reveal four-phase Holocene temperature evolution for High Arctic Svalbard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bilt, Willem G. M.; D'Andrea, William J.; Bakke, Jostein; Balascio, Nicholas L.; Werner, Johannes P.; Gjerde, Marthe; Bradley, Raymond S.

2018-03-01

Situated at the crossroads of major oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns, the Arctic is a key component of Earth's climate system. Compounded by sea-ice feedbacks, even modest shifts in the region's heat budget drive large climate responses. This is highlighted by the observed amplified response of the Arctic to global warming. Assessing the imprint and signature of underlying forcing mechanisms require paleoclimate records, allowing us to expand our knowledge beyond the short instrumental period and contextualize ongoing warming. However, such datasets are scarce and sparse in the Arctic, limiting our ability to address these issues. Here, we present two quantitative Holocene-length paleotemperature records from the High Arctic Svalbard archipelago, situated in the climatically sensitive Arctic North Atlantic. Temperature estimates are based on U37K unsaturation ratios from sediment cores of two lakes. Our data reveal a dynamic Holocene temperature evolution, with reconstructed summer lake water temperatures spanning a range of ∼6-8 °C, and characterized by four phases. The Early Holocene was marked by an early onset (∼10.5 ka cal. BP) of insolation-driven Hypsithermal conditions, likely compounded by strengthening oceanic heat transport. This warm interval was interrupted by cooling between ∼10.5-8.3 ka cal. BP that we attribute to cooling effects from the melting Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Temperatures declined throughout the Middle Holocene, following a gradual trend that was accentuated by two cooling steps between ∼7.8-7 ka cal. BP and around ∼4.4-4.3 ka cal. BP. These transitions coincide with a strengthening influence of Arctic water and sea-ice in the adjacent Fram Strait. During the Late Holocene (past 4 ka), temperature change decoupled from the still-declining insolation, and fluctuated around comparatively cold mean conditions. By showing that Holocene Svalbard temperatures were governed by an alternation of forcings, this study

Younger Dryas to Early Holocene paleoclimate in Cantabria (N Spain): Constraints from speleothem Mg, annual fluorescence banding and stable isotope records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Carlos; Bajo, Petra; Lozano, Rafael P.; Hellstrom, John

2018-07-01

The Younger Dryas (YD) stadial represents the most abrupt climate change of the Earth's recent history. Thus, understanding its causes and different local responses is relevant for Quaternary paleoclimatology. We present a speleothem high-resolution proxy record of the Lateglacial to Early Holocene paleoclimate of the Cantabrian Cordillera (N Spain), a strategic location to evaluate the influence of North Atlantic events such as the YD on South-Western Europe. Fluorescence lamination, growth-rate, stable-isotope, and [Mg] records from stalagmite SIR-1 were dated using an age-depth model constrained by U-Th dates and annual-lamina counting. The YD is recorded as a prominent positive δ13C excursion whose chronology (12.95 ± 0.14 to 11.62 ± 0.16 ka) and shape closely agree with the GS-1 stadial as defined in Greenland ice, supporting the event synchronicity in both areas. A colder and drier YD climate limited soil productivity and dripwater availability, leading to higher δ13C and [Mg], reduced growth rate, and virtually absent fluorescence lamination. The early YD record (until ∼12.5 ka) reflects increasing aridity, whereas the late YD (from ∼12.2 ka on) shows the opposite trend. At the YD boundaries, temperature changes influenced the [Mg] record by modifying the Mg partition into calcite. However, this effect was superseded by major changes in dripwater Mg/Ca linked to rainfall variations. During the Early Holocene, the Arnero Sierra was forested and had a relatively warm and humid seasonal climate, indicated in SIR-1 by higher growth rates, lower δ13C and [Mg], and well-developed fluorescent lamination. Similar to other high-resolution stalagmitic records of the Cordillera, from ∼8.5 to 8.0 ka SIR-1 reflects a temporary trend of increasing aridity.

Holocene precipitation changes in the deep tropics recorded by Speleothems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Auler, A. S.; Edwards, R.; Kong, X.; Cheng, H.; Cruz, F. W.; Wang, Y.; Broecker, W. S.

2010-12-01

We have obtained a high-resolution oxygen isotope (δ18O) record of cave calcite from Paraiso Cave, eastern Amazon, which covers most of the Holocene. Its chronology was determined by U-Th ages from three column-shaped stalagmites. Their δ18O profiles replicate among their contemporaneous growth periods. Therefore, the samples were likely precipitated under equilibrium conditions and their oxygen isotopic variations are primarily caused by climate change. We find that the δ18O decreases steadily from ~11.0 to 5.0 thousand years ago, with a growth gap between ~8.4 to 6.3 thousand years ago, and then gradually increases until the present. The large amplitude of the δ18O change (up to 4 per mil) suggests that the variation in δ18O value is dominated by meteoric precipitation change at this equatorial site. In order to investigate the interactions between the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), monsoons and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity during the Holocene, we compare the Paraiso record to speleothem records from other locations in the deep tropics, namely, cave sites from Flores, Borneo and Peru. We find that all these speleothem records are consistent, with a progressive δ18O decrease (rainfall increase) during the early Holocene, probably in response to the southward retreat of the ITCZ from its northernmost location in the early Holocene. This is evident from the strong anti-correlation between the speleothem monsoonal records from China and southern Brazil. However, our record is distinct from the others during the last 4 thousand years, when it switches to a continuous δ18O increase (rainfall decrease) trend, while the others flatten out. We propose that, during the late Holocene, the strengthened South American Summer Monsoon may override the ENSO influence and cause the discrepancy in precipitation between eastern Amazon and other deep tropical cave sites.

Use of climate information for drought risk management in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neri, C.; Magaña Rueda, V.

2013-05-01

The occurrence of meteorological droughts in Mexico has brought to light the large vulnerability of the central-northern part of the country to water shortages. This region is facing current and future water shortages due to the increased demand of water from urban growth in addition to droughts. Assessing droughts requires considering long-term losses and side effects. However, governments generally invest little resources in the creation of drought risk reduction programs, even in regions where droughts have been documented in historical records, such as in the northern region of Mexico. It is not clear until now, what is our capacity to predict droughts on seasonal time scale, and even the Drought Monitor for North America not always reflect the severity of the condition at the regional level. An analysis of strategies that focus on droughts show that one of the principal limits in the management of drought risks and preventive decision making is the use of inadequate definitions of drought predictability. In addition, the means to communicate confidence in seasonal climate forecasts has inhibited the use of climate information in the planning of various socioeconomic activities. Although some sectors such as agriculture have programs to reduce the impacts of drought, their efforts have focused in providing subsidies to get along with dry conditions. In other words, there are no actions to reduce the potential impacts of drought. The characterization of the vulnerability of water user groups, particularly in Sonora as case of study, has been useful to identifying what type of climate information decision makers needed. This information will be included in a proposal of a drought early warming for Mexico. A key element in a drought early warming for Mexico is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using

Creating a Regional Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) for California and Nevada: Building Off of Information Gathered and Lessons Learned after 5 Years of Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, A. M.; Marrs, A.; Wall, T. U.; Cayan, D.; Kalansky, J.; Redmond, K. T.; Huntington, J. L.; McEvoy, D.

2016-12-01

In California and Nevada, a diverse set of sectors and regional variation amidst a 5-year spell of drought presents multiple needs, gaps and challenges in providing usable available information for drought preparedness. In response to the findings of Governor Sandoval's Nevada Drought Forum and a series of stakeholder meetings and drought and climate outlooks in California, NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) has created the California-Nevada DEWS to leverage the activities of the existing California DEWS to better reflect the needs of the region after five years of unprecedented drought. In addition to presenting timely drought status and outlooks, these stakeholder-oriented meetings and listening sessions explored local drought impacts and drought informational needs. The information gathered will be integrated into a strategic plan for California-Nevada DEWS. This strategic plan will provide a roadmap of planned research and activities to enhance the ability of stakeholders in the region to better plan, prepare for and mitigate the impacts of drought. The implementation will involve key partners from a diverse network of federal, regional, tribal, state and local agencies and interests and will result in regionally specific deliverables to advance the California-Nevada DEWS.

New Data on Vegetation and Climate Reconstruction in the Baikal-Patom Highland (Eastern Siberia) in the Last Glacial Maximum and Early Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henry, A.; Bezrukova, E. V.; Teten'kin, A. V.; Kuz'min, M. I.

2018-02-01

The first results of anthracological investigation for Eastern Siberia on the carbonaceous remains of woody and shrubby plants at the archaeological sites Kovrizhka III and IV in the lower reaches of the Vitim River are presented. The results of anthracological studies enabled us to obtain new data on changes in vegetation and climate along the lower reaches of the Vitim River. As a result, new data on human habitation in the lower reaches of the Vitim River in the last glacial maximum and early Holocene were obtained.

The Lifecycles of Drought: Informing Responses Across Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Schubert, S. D.

2014-12-01

Drought is a slow-onset hazard that is a normal part of climate. Drought onset and demise are difficult to determine. Impacts are mostly nonstructural, spread over large geographical areas, and can persist long after precipitation deficits end. These factors hinder development of accurate, timely estimates of drought severity and resultant responses. Drivers of drought range from SST anomalies and global scale atmospheric response, through regional forcing and local land-surface feedbacks. Key climatological questions related to drought risk assessment, perception and management include, "Does a drought end by a return to normal precipitation; how much moisture is required and over what period; can the end of a drought be defined by the diminishing impacts e.g. soil moisture, reservoir volumes; will precipitation patterns on which management systems rely, change in the future?" Effective early warning systems inform strategic responses that anticipate crises and crisis evolution across climate timescales. While such "early information" is critical for defining event onset, it is even more critical for identifying the potential for increases in severity. Many social and economic systems have buffers in place to respond to onset (storage, transfers and purchase of grain) but lack response capabilities as drought intensifies, as buffers are depleted. Throughout the drought lifecycle (and between events), monitoring, research and risk assessments are required to: Map decision-making processes and resource capabilities including degradation of water and ecosystems Place multiple climate and land surface indicators within a consistent triggering framework (e.g. climate and vegetation mapping) before critical thresholds are reached Identify policies and practices that impede or enable the flow of information, through policy gaming and other exercises The presentation will outline the capabilities and framework needed to ensure improved scientific inputs to preparedness

Forest response to 1,000 years of drought variability in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, A. P.; Meko, D. M.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Cook, E.; Swetnam, T. W.; Macalady, A. K.; Allen, C. D.; Rauscher, S. A.; Jiang, X.; Grissino-Mayer, H.; McDowell, N. G.; Cai, M.

2011-12-01

Droughts in the early 1950s and early 2000s significantly accelerated tree mortality rates in the Southwestern United States. During the early 2000s, forest inventory data indicate that the proportion of dead piñon pine, ponderosa pine, and Douglas-fir trees doubled in the Southwest. The 2000s drought peaked in 2002 and was the most severe drought in at least 100 years. In 2011, precipitation, dew-point, and wind data indicate the intensity of the 2002 drought has been surpassed in a number of ways. Measurements of water potential in piñon pine trees in northern New Mexico indicate that, at present, trees have less access to soil moisture than in 2002 when widespread mortality occurred. How do these recent droughts compare to those of the last 1000 years? We used records of annual tree-ring widths from 309 populations of piñon pine, ponderosa pine, and Douglas-fir throughout the Southwestern United States to reconstruct a single record of regional drought stress from 1000-2005 AD. This record indicates that the last Southwestern drought similar in intensity to one in the early 2000s occurred in the late 1600s. Both of these droughts, however, paled in comparison to a mega-drought that occurred from 1575-1595. The emergence from this mega-drought, around 1600 AD, appears to mark a transition period from a time when droughts similar the early 2000s drought were much more common. Tree-age studies indicate a scarcity of Southwestern trees with rings extending back beyond the mega-drought of the late 1500s. This suggests that (1) the late-1500s mega-drought triggered a massive die-off of forests and/or (2) the higher frequency of drought events prior to the mega-drought sustained a much more sparse forest population than the one that has thrived from the 1600s through present. Given this apparent plasticity of Southwestern forests, a change in the forest population should be underway if higher temperatures contribute to forest drought stress. The Southwestern tree

Holocene reef development where wave energy reduces accommodation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grossman, Eric E.; Fletcher, Charles H.

2004-01-01

Analyses of 32 drill cores obtained from the windward reef of Kailua Bay, Oahu, Hawaii, indicate that high wave energy significantly reduced accommodation space for reef development in the Holocene and produced variable architecture because of the combined influence of sea-level history and wave exposure over a complex antecedent topography. A paleostream valley within the late Pleistocene insular limestone shelf provided accommodation space for more than 11 m of vertical accretion since sea level flooded the bay 8000 yr BP. Virtually no net accretion (pile-up of fore-reef-derived rubble (rudstone) and sparse bindstone, and (3) a final stage of catch-up bindstone accretion in depths > 6 m. Coral framestone accreted at rates of 2.5-6.0 mm/yr in water depths > 11 m during the early Holocene; it abruptly terminated at ~4500 yr BP because of wave scour as sea level stabilized. More than 4 m of rudstone derived from the upper fore reef accreted at depths of 6 to 13 m below sea level between 4000 and 1500 yr BP coincident with late Holocene relative sea-level fall. Variations in the thickness, composition, and age of these reef facies across spatial scales of 10-1000 m within Kailua Bay illustrate the importance of antecedent topography and wave-related stress in reducing accommodation space for reef development set by sea level. Although accommodation space of 6 to 17 m has existed through most of the Holocene, the Kailua reef has been unable to catch up to sea level because of persistent high wave stress.

A Holocene Record of Hydrological Fluctuations in the Northern Chilean Altiplano (Lago Chungará)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valero-Garces, B. L.; Saez, A.; Pueyo, J.; Taberner, C.; Bao, R.; Schnurrenberger, D.; Myrbo, A.; Shapley, M.; Herrera, C.; Moreno-Caballud, A.; Gonzalez-Samperiz, P.; Giralt, S.; Oriol-Gibert, R.; Edwards, L.; Schwalb, A.

2004-12-01

Holocene records of moisture availability in the Central Andes and the Altiplano show contrasting and even opposite signals and time-transgressive millennial-scale climatic changes across the region, particularly between the Titicaca Basin and the Atacama Altiplano. A multiproxy study of a 13 kyr record of Lago Chungará (18° 15' S, 69° 10' W, 4520 m a.s.l.) provides new data to solve some of the paleoclimate controversies as regional moisture availability patterns during the early and mid Holocene and the onset of modern ENSO conditions. Lago Chungara originated after the emplacement of the Parinacota volcano debris avalanche that blocked the Chungará River prior to 13 cal. kyrs ago. A seismic survey and fifteen Kullenberg cores allowed a detailed 3-D reconstruction of the 8 m long sedimentary sequence. The chronological model is based on 5 AMS 14C on bulk organic matter and 3 U/Th dates on authigenic carbonates and shells. To assess the typically large (and variable) reservoir effect, we dated modern sediments and waters, and constrained the model with time markers based on a 210Pb age model for the last 150 yrs, volcanic ashes of known age, and the U/Th dates. We performed high-resolution analyses by an X-ray fluorescence core scanner and magnetic, sedimentological, mineralogical, isotopic, and biological (pollen, diatoms and ostracodes) analyses on selected cores. Statistical analyses helped to separate the volcanism from climate as the key driving forces in the hydrological and sedimentological evolution of the lake. Three main lacustrine units are identified on top of the pre Parinacota avalanche substrate. The basal unit (13 - 7.2 cal. kyrs BP) is a finely laminated diatomite. The middle unit (7.2 - 4.5 cal. kyrs BP) is banded and it is composed of diatomites and carbonate-rich layers. The diatomaceous upper unit (after 4.5 cal. kyrs BP) is banded to massive, and it contains abundant volcanic layers (lapilli, ash layers). Increased volcanic activity after

Late-glacial and Holocene records of fire and vegetation from Cradle Mountain National Park, Tasmania, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahle, Laura N.; Chin, Hahjung; Haberle, Simon; Whitlock, Cathy

2017-12-01

Fire activity was reconstructed at five sites and vegetation history at three sites in northwest Tasmania, Australia in order to examine the climate and human drivers of environmental change in the region. Watershed-scale reconstructions of fire were compared to regional vegetation history. Fire activity was very low until ca. 12,000 cal yr BP. An early-Holocene fire maximum, ca. 11,800-9800 cal yr BP, occurred during the warmest interval of the Holocene as recorded by regional paleoclimate proxy records. This period of elevated burning was also coincident with an increase in arboreal sclerophyll plant taxa. A maximum in rainforest taxa occurred at ca. 8500-5800 cal yr BP concurrent with sharply diminished biomass burning compared with the early Holocene. The increase in rainforest taxa is attributed to elevated effective moisture during this period. Conditions were drier and variable in the late Holocene as compared with earlier periods. A rise in fire activity at ca. 4800-3200 cal yr BP was accompanied by an increase in sclerophyll taxa and decline of rainforest and subalpine taxa. Elevated palynological richness during the late Holocene co-occurred with high levels of charcoal suggesting that fires promoted high floristic diversity. At Cradle Mountain, there is no clear evidence that fire regimes or vegetation were extensively modified by humans prior to European settlement. Climate was the primary driver of fire activity over millennial timescales as explained by the close relationship between charcoal and climate proxy data.

Holocene climate and climate variability of the northern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent northern Gulf Coast: A review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poore, Richard Z.

2008-01-01

Marine records from the northern Gulf of Mexico indicate that significant multidecadal- and century-scale variability was common during the Holocene. Mean annual sea-surface temperature (SST) during the last 1,400 years may have varied by 3°C, and excursions to cold SST coincide with reductions in solar output. Broad trends in Holocene terrestrial climate and environmental change along the eastern portion of the northern Gulf Coast are evident from existing pollen records, but the high-frequency details of climate variability are not well known. Continuous and well-dated records of climate change and climate variability in the western portion of the northern Gulf Coast are essentially lacking.Information on Holocene floods, droughts, and storm frequency along the northern Gulf Coast is limited. Records of floods may be preserved in continental shelf sediments, but establishing continuity and chronologies for sedimentary sequences on the shelf presents challenges due to sediment remobilization and redeposition during storms. Studies of past storm deposits in coastal lakes and marshes show promise for constructing records of past storm frequency. A recent summary of sea-level history of the northern Gulf Coast indicates sea level was higher than modern sea level several times during the last few thousand years.

Late mid-Holocene sea-level oscillation: A possible cause

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, D. B.; Collins, E. S.

Sea level oscillated between 5500 and 3500 years ago at Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, Chezzetcook and Baie Verte, Nova Scotia and Montmagny, Quebec. The oscillation is well constrained by foraminiferal marsh zonations in three locations and by diatoms in the fourth one. The implications are: (1) there was a eustatic sea-level oscillation of about 2-10 m in the late mid-Holocene on the southeast coast of North America (South Carolina to Quebec) that is not predicted by present geophysical models of relative sea-level change; (2) this oscillation coincides with oceanographic cooling on the east coast of Canada that we associate with melting ice; and (3) this sea- level oscillation/climatic event coincides exactly with the end of pyramid building in Egypt which is suggested to have resulted from a climate change (i.e. drought, cooling). This sea-level/climatic change is a prime example of feedback where climatic warming in the mid-Holocene promoted ice melt in the Arctic which subsequently caused climatic cooling by opening up Arctic channels releasing cold water into the Inner Labrador Current that continued to intensify until 4000 years ago. This sea-level event may also be the best way of measuring when the final ice melted since most estimates of the ages of the last melting are based on end moraine dates in the Arctic which may not coincide with when the last ice actually melted out, since there is no way of dating the final ice positions.

Mid-Holocene drying of the U.S. Great Basin recorded in Nevada speleothems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steponaitis, Elena; Andrews, Alexandra; McGee, David; Quade, Jay; Hsieh, Yu-Te; Broecker, Wallace S.; Shuman, Bryan N.; Burns, Stephen J.; Cheng, Hai

2015-11-01

Lake level records point to dramatic changes in Great Basin water balance over the last 25 ka, but the timing and pace of Holocene drying in the region remains poorly documented. Here we present stable isotope and trace metal data from two Lehman Caves, NV speleothems that provide a well-dated record of latest Pleistocene to mid-Holocene hydroclimate in the U.S. Great Basin. Together the stalagmites span the interval between 16.4 ka and 3.8 ka, with a hiatus from 15.0 ka to 12.7 ka. Mg/Ca and δ13C covary throughout the records, consistent with control by the extent of degassing and prior calcite precipitation (PCP); measurements of modern cave and soil waters support PCP as the primary control on drip-water trace-element composition. We therefore interpret Mg/Ca and δ13C as reflecting infiltration rates, with higher values corresponding to drier periods. Both Mg/Ca and δ13C indicate a wet period at the beginning of the record (12.7-8.2 ka) followed by pronounced drying after 8.2 ka. This mid-Holocene drying is consistent with records from around the western United States, including a new compilation of Great Basin lake-level records. The strong temporal correspondence with the collapse of the Laurentide ice sheet over Hudson Bay suggests that this drying may have been triggered by northward movement of the winter storm track as a result of ice sheet retreat. However, we cannot rule out an alternative hypothesis that wet early Holocene conditions are related to equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature. Regardless, our results suggest that Great Basin water balance in the early Holocene was driven by factors other than orbital changes.

Drought and coastal ecosystems: an assessment of decision maker needs for information

Treesearch

Kirsten Lackstrom; Amanda Brennan; Kirstin Dow

2016-01-01

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) is in the process of developing drought early warning systems in areas of the U.S. where the development and coordination of drought information is needed. In summer 2012, NIDIS launched a pilot program in North and South Carolina, addressing the uniqueness of drought impacts on coastal ecosystems.

Using Satellite Data to Build Climate Resilience: A Novel East Africa Drought Monitor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slinski, K.; Hogue, T. S.; McCray, J. E.

2016-12-01

East Africa is affected by recurrent drought. The 2015-2016 El Niño triggered a severe drought across East Africa causing serious impacts to regional water security, health, and livelihoods. Ethiopia was the hardest hit, with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs calling the recent drought the worst in 50 years. Resources to monitor the severity and progression of droughts are a critical component to disaster risk reduction, but are challenging to implement in regions with sparse data collection networks such as East Africa. Satellite data is used by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization Global Information and Early Warning System, the USAID Famine Early Warning System, and the Africa Drought and Flood Monitor. These systems use remotely sensed vegetation, soil moisture, and meteorological data to develop drought indices. However, they do not directly monitor impacts to water resources, which is necessary to appropriately target drought mitigation efforts. The current study combines new radar data from the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1 mission with satellite imagery to perform a retrospective analysis of the impact of the 2015-2016 drought in East Africa on regional surface water. Inland water body extents during the drought are compared to historical trends to identify the most severely impacted areas. The developed tool has the potential to support on-the-ground humanitarian relief efforts and to refine predictions of water scarcity and crop impacts from existing hydrologic models and famine early warning systems.

Late glacial to Holocene water level and climate changes in the Gulf of Gemlik, Sea of Marmara: evidence from multi-proxy data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filikci, Betül; Eriş, Kürşad Kadir; Çağatay, Namık; Sabuncu, Asen; Polonia, Alina

2017-10-01

Multi-proxy analyses of new piston core M13-08 together with seismic data from the Gulf of Gemlik provide a detailed record of paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic changes with special emphasis on the timing of the connections between the Sea of Marmara (SoM) and the Gulf of Gemlik during the late Pleistocene to Holocene. The deposition of a subaqueous delta sourced from the Armutlu River to the north is attributed to the lowstand lake level at -60 m in the gulf prior to 13.5 cal ka BP. On the basis of the seismic data, it is argued that the higher lake level (-60 m) in the gulf compared to the SoM level (-85 m) attests to its disconnection from the SoM during the late glacial period. Ponto-Caspian assemblages in the lacustrine sedimentary unit covering the time period between 13.5 and 12 cal ka BP represent a relict that was introduced into the gulf by a Black Sea outflow during the marine isotope stage 3 interstadial. Contrary to the findings of previous studies, the data suggest that such an outflow into the Gulf of Gemlik during the late glacial period could have occurred only if the SoM lake level (-85 m) was shallower than the sill depth (-55 m) of the gulf in the west. A robust age model of the core indicates the connection of the gulf with the marine SoM at 12 cal ka BP, consistent with the sill depth (-55 m) of the gulf on the global sea level curve. Strong evidence of a marine incursion into the gulf is well documented by the μ-XRF Sr/Ca data. The available profiles of elemental ratios in core M13-08, together with the age-depth model, imply that a warm and wet climate prevailed in the gulf during the early Holocene (12-10.1 cal ka BP), whereas the longest drought occurred during the middle Holocene (8.2-5.4 cal ka BP). The base of the main Holocene sapropel in the gulf is dated at 10.1 cal ka BP, i.e., 500 years younger than its equivalent in the SoM. The late Holocene is earmarked by warm and wet climate periods (5.0-4.2 and 4.2-2.7 cal ka BP) with some

Tropical ocean-atmospheric forcing of Late Glacial and Holocene glacier fluctuations in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stansell, Nathan D.; Licciardi, Joseph M.; Rodbell, Donald T.; Mark, Bryan G.

2017-05-01

Evaluating the timing and style of past glacier fluctuations in the tropical Andes is important for our scientific understanding of global environmental change. Terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide ages on moraine boulders combined with 14C-dated clastic sediment records from alpine lakes document glacial variability in the Cordillera Blanca of Peru during the last 16 ka. Late Glacial ice extents culminated at the start of the Antarctic Cold Reversal and began retracting prior to the Younger Dryas. Multiple moraine crests dating to the early Holocene mark brief readvances or stillstands that punctuated overall retreat of the Queshque Valley glacier terminus during this interval. Glaciers were less extensive during the middle Holocene before readvancing during the latest Holocene. These records suggest that tropical Atlantic and Pacific ocean-atmospheric processes exerted temporally variable forcing of Late Glacial and Holocene glacial changes in the Peruvian Andes.

Introduction of Drought Monitoring and Forecasting System based on Real-time Water Information Using ICT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y., II; Kim, H. S.; Chun, G.

2016-12-01

There were severe damages such as restriction on water supply caused by continuous drought from 2014 to 2015 in South Korea. Through this drought event, government of South Korea decided to establish National Drought Information Analysis Center in K-water(Korea Water Resources Corporation) and introduce a national drought monitoring and early warning system to mitigate those damages. Drought index such as SPI(Standard Precipitation Index), PDSI(Palmer Drought Severity Index) and SMI(Soil Moisture Index) etc. have been developed and are widely used to provide drought information in many countries. However, drought indexes are not appropriate for drought monitoring and early warning in civilized countries with high population density such as South Korea because it could not consider complicated water supply network. For the national drought monitoring and forecasting of South Korea, `Drought Information Analysis System' (D.I.A.S) which is based on the real time data(storage, flowrate, waterlevel etc.) was developed. Based on its advanced methodology, `DIAS' is changing the paradigm of drought monitoring and early warning systems. Because `D.I.A.S' contains the information of water supply network from water sources to the people across the nation and provides drought information considering the real-time hydrological conditions of each and every water source. For instance, in case the water level of a specific dam declines to predetermined level of caution, `D.I.A.S' will notify people who uses the dam as a source of residential or industrial water. It is expected to provide credible drought monitoring and forecasting information with a strong relationship between drought information and the feelings of people rely on water users by `D.I.A.S'.

Contrasting impacts of continuous moderate drought and episodic severe droughts on the aboveground-biomass increment and litterfall of three coexisting Mediterranean woody species.

PubMed

Liu, Daijun; Ogaya, Romà; Barbeta, Adrià; Yang, Xiaohong; Peñuelas, Josep

2015-11-01

Climate change is predicted to increase the aridity in the Mediterranean Basin and severely affect forest productivity and composition. The responses of forests to different timescales of drought, however, are still poorly understood because extreme and persistent moderate droughts can produce nonlinear responses in plants. We conducted a rainfall-manipulation experiment in a Mediterranean forest dominated by Quercus ilex, Phillyrea latifolia, and Arbutus unedo in the Prades Mountains in southern Catalonia from 1999 to 2014. The experimental drought significantly decreased forest aboveground-biomass increment (ABI), tended to increase the litterfall, and decreased aboveground net primary production throughout the 15 years of the study. The responses to the experimental drought were highly species-specific. A. unedo suffered a significant reduction in ABI, Q. ilex experienced a decrease during the early experiment (1999-2003) and in the extreme droughts of 2005-2006 and 2011-2012, and P. latifolia was unaffected by the treatment. The drought treatment significantly increased branch litterfall, especially in the extremely dry year of 2011, and also increased overall leaf litterfall. The drought treatment reduced the fruit production of Q. ilex, which affected seedling recruitment. The ABIs of all species were highly correlated with SPEI in early spring, whereas the branch litterfalls were better correlated with summer SPEIs and the leaf and fruit litterfalls were better correlated with autumn SPEIs. These species-specific responses indicated that the dominant species (Q. ilex) could be partially replaced by the drought-resistant species (P. latifolia). However, the results of this long-term study also suggest that the effect of drought treatment has been dampened over time, probably due to a combination of demographic compensation, morphological and physiological acclimation, and epigenetic changes. However, the structure of community (e.g., species composition

Seasonal Transitions and the Westerly Jet in the Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, W.; Chiang, J. C. H.

2015-12-01

The Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) was characterized by a trend to weaker monsoon intensity paced by orbital insolation. Here, we attribute the stronger EASM intensity in the early-mid Holocene to changes in the timing of the transition between the EASM seasonal stages - Spring, pre Mei- Yu, Mei-Yu, and Summer - during that time. Following the recent 'jet transition hypothesis' (Chiang et al., 2015), we explore the role of north-south displacement of the westerlies relative to the Tibetan Plateau that is hypothesized to control the downstream EASM seasonality changes across the Holocene. To this end, we analyze model simulations of the Holocene EASM, compare the simulated Holocene climate with the paleodata observations, and examine the role of atmospheric circulation and specifically the westerlies in modulating the East Asia summer climate. The PMIP3 climate model simulations suggest that, compared to the pre-industrial, the Mei-Yu onset and the transition from Mei-Yu to Summer rainfall occur earlier in the mid-Holocene. The advanced seasonal rainfall transition is accompanied by the weakened and northward-shifted upstream westerlies. In our atmospheric general circulation model (coupled to a slab ocean) simulations of various time periods across the Holocene (9ka, 6ka, 3ka, and pre-industrial), we quantitatively show that the timing and the length of each rainfall stage are closely related to the jet position over East Asia. We also show that the simulated changes in the maximum annual rainfall band and dust emission over East Asia largely agree with the paleo-proxy observations. In addition, we find that changes to the seasonal rainfall transitions, latitudinal westerly position, and stationary eddy activity over East Asia co-vary across the Holocene. In particular, we argue that the changes in the rainfall seasonal transitions are tied to an altered stationary wave pattern, resembling today's the so-called 'Silk Road Pattern', riding along the

Drivers of Holocene sea-level change in the Caribbean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Khan, Nicole; Ashe, Erica; Horton, Benjamin P.; Dutton, Andrea; Kopp, Robert E.; Brocard, Gilles; Engelhart, Simon E.; Hill, David F.; Peltier, W.R.; Vane, Christopher H.; Scatena, Fred N.

2017-01-01

We present a Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) database for the Caribbean region (5°N to 25°N and 55°W to 90°W) that consists of 499 sea-level index points and 238 limiting dates. The database was compiled from multiple sea-level indicators (mangrove peat, microbial mats, beach rock and acroporid and massive corals). We subdivided the database into 20 regions to investigate the influence of tectonics and glacial isostatic adjustment on RSL. We account for the local-scale processes of sediment compaction and tidal range change using the stratigraphic position (overburden thickness) of index points and paleotidal modeling, respectively. We use a spatio-temporal empirical hierarchical model to estimate RSL position and its rates of change in the Caribbean over 1-ka time slices. Because of meltwater input, the rates of RSL change were highest during the early Holocene, with a maximum of 10.9 ± 0.6 m/ka in Suriname and Guyana and minimum of 7.4 ± 0.7 m/ka in south Florida from 12 to 8 ka. Following complete deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) by ∼7 ka, mid-to late-Holocene rates slowed to < 2.4 ± 0.4 m/ka. The hierarchical model constrains the spatial extent of the mid-Holocene highstand. RSL did not exceed the present height during the Holocene, except on the northern coast of South America, where in Suriname and Guyana, RSL attained a height higher than present by 6.6 ka (82% probability). The highstand reached a maximum elevation of +1.0 ± 1.1 m between 5.3 and 5.2 ka. Regions with a highstand were located furthest away from the former LIS, where the effects from ocean syphoning and hydro-isostasy outweigh the influence of subsidence from forebulge collapse.

Early responses of mature Arabidopsis thaliana plants to reduced water potential in the agar-based polyethylene glycol infusion drought model.

PubMed

Frolov, Andrej; Bilova, Tatiana; Paudel, Gagan; Berger, Robert; Balcke, Gerd U; Birkemeyer, Claudia; Wessjohann, Ludger A

2017-01-01

Drought is one of the most important environmental stressors resulting in increasing losses of crop plant productivity all over the world. Therefore, development of new approaches to increase the stress tolerance of crop plants is strongly desired. This requires precise and adequate modeling of drought stress. As this type of stress manifests itself as a steady decrease in the substrate water potential (ψ w ), agar plates infused with polyethylene glycol (PEG) are the perfect experimental tool: they are easy in preparation and provide a constantly reduced ψ w , which is not possible in soil models. However, currently, this model is applicable only to seedlings and cannot be used for evaluation of stress responses in mature plants, which are obviously the most appropriate objects for drought tolerance research. To overcome this limitation, here we introduce a PEG-based agar infusion model suitable for 6-8-week-old A. thaliana plants, and characterize, to the best of our knowledge for the first time, the early drought stress responses of adult plants grown on PEG-infused agar. We describe essential alterations in the primary metabolome (sugars and related compounds, amino acids and polyamines) accompanied by qualitative and quantitative changes in protein patterns: up to 87 unique stress-related proteins were annotated under drought stress conditions, whereas further 84 proteins showed a change in abundance. The obtained proteome patterns differed slightly from those reported for seedlings and soil-based models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Earth Observations for Early Detection of Agricultural Drought in Countries at Risk: Contributions of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdin, J. P.; Rowland, J.; Senay, G. B.; Funk, C. C.; Budde, M. E.; Husak, G. J.; Jayanthi, H.

2013-12-01

The Group on Earth Observations' Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) implementation plan emphasizes the information needs of countries at risk of food insecurity emergencies. Countries in this category are often vulnerable to disruption of agricultural production due to drought, while at the same time they lack well developed networks of in-situ observations to support early drought detection. Consequently, it is vital that Earth observations by satellites supplement those available from surface stations. The USGS, in its role as a FEWS NET implementing partner, has recently developed a number of new applications of satellite observations for this purpose. (1) In partnership with the University of California, Santa Barbara, a 30+ year time series of gridded precipitation estimates (CHIRPS) has been developed by blending NOAA GridSat B1 geostationary thermal infrared imagery with station observations using robust geostatistical methods. The core data set consists of pentadal (5-daily) accumulations from 1981-2013 at 0.05 degree spatial resolution between +/- 50 degrees latitude. Validation has been recently completed, and applications for gridded crop water balance calculations and mapping the Standardized Precipitation Index are in development. (2) Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) estimates using MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data at 1-km have been successfully demonstrated using the operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance model with 8-day composites from the LPDAAC. A new, next-day latency implementation using daily LST swath data from the NASA LANCE server is in development for all the crop growing regions of the world. This ETa processing chain follows in the footsteps of (3) the expedited production of MODIS 250-meter NDVI images every five days at USGS EROS, likewise using LANCE daily swath data as input since 2010. Coverage includes Africa, Central Asia, the Middle East, Central America, and the Caribbean. (4) A surface water point monitoring

Cyclic changes of Asian monsoon intensity during the early mid-Holocene from annually-laminated stalagmites, central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dianbing; Wang, Yongjin; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. L.; Kong, Xinggong

2015-08-01

Climate during the early Holocene was highly variable due to the complex interplay of external and internal forcing mechanisms. The relative importance for them on the Asian monsoon (AM) evolution yet remains to be resolved. Here we present two-to six-yr-resolution oxygen isotope (δ18O) records of five stalagmites, four of which are annually-laminated, from Qingtian Cave, central China, revealing detailed AM variability between 10.9 and 6.1 ka BP. Over the contemporaneous periods, the δ18O records agree well with each other at multi-decadal to centennial timescales. When pieced together with the previously published isotopic data from the same cave, the final δ18O record reveals detailed AM variability from the last deglaciation to the mid-Holocene, consistent with other cave records. The most striking feature of the δ18O record is the recurrence of centennial-scale oscillations, especially during the annually-counted period (8.8-6.1 ka BP). Cross-wavelet analyses between the δ18O record and solar proxies show strong coherence at 200-yr cycle, suggesting that solar output was actively involved as a primary contributor. The AM depression at 8.2 ka BP is indistinguishable in amplitude and pattern from a series of weak AM events after 8 ka BP. We speculate that these centennial-scale AM changes might be regulated by the positive feedbacks of oceanic/atmospheric interactions to the solar activity under the condition of the retreat of continental ice-sheets.

Holocene Enviromental Changes in AN Amazonian Floodplain Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreira, L.; Moreira-Turcq, P. F.; Turcq, B.; Cordeiro, R. C.

2011-12-01

not change, suggesting the permanence of a flooded vegetation. The carbon flux increases significantly, reaching peaks of 17 g C/m2/year. The Aulacoseira sp became dominant reaching a peak in this phase. These characteristics show conditions progressively wetter during the Late Holocene. The shift from a shorter annual water levels during the Early-Mid Holocene (phase III) to a long annual high water levels since 3200 years cal BP can suggest a climate change from a drier Early-mid Holocene to a wetter Late Holocene.

The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, M. C.; Singarayer, J. S.; Valdes, P. J.; Kaplan, J. O.; Branch, N. P.

2015-10-01

The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with HadCM3 were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation simulated by TRIFFID but no land-use changes, and (ii) where the anthropogenic land use model, KK10 (Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) has been used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations have been run at 1000 year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and S.E. Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June/July/August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2-3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies

Midwestern Holocene paleoenvironments revealed by floodplain deposits in northeastern Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chumbley, C.A.; Baker, R.G.; Bettis, E. Arthur

1990-01-01

Pollen analysis of pond deposits in the upper reaches of a stream from northeastern Iowa, an area beyond the last glacial margin, provides a nearly complete record of vegetational changes during the last 12.5 thousand years. Sixty-one radiocarbon dates provide good chronological control. Spruce forest was replaced by deciduous forest before 9 1 thousand years ago, followed by prairie from 5.4 to 3.5 thousand years ago, and oak savanna from 3.5 thousand years ago until presettlement times. The prairie invasion was nearly 3 thousand years later here than at other sites in Iowa and Minnesota, documenting a late Holocene, rather than an early-middle Holocene, period of maximum warmth and dryness for the southern part of the upper Midwest.

Drought

Treesearch

John W. Coulston

2009-01-01

Drought occurrence is a function of temperature, moisture, and soil characteristics. In some regions, such as much of the Western United States, drought is a regular occurrence, while in others, such as the Northeastern United States, drought occurs on an irregular basis. Moderate drought stress tends to slow plant growth while severe drought stress also reduces...

Contrasting early Holocene temperature variations between monsoonal East Asia and westerly dominated Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jiaju; An, Chen-Bang; Huang, Yongsong; Morrill, Carrie; Chen, Fa-Hu

2017-12-01

Numerous studies have demonstrated that there are major differences in the timing of maximum Holocene precipitation between the monsoonal East Asia and westerly dominated Central Asia, but it is unclear if the moisture differences are also associated with corresponding temperature contrasts. Here we present the first alkenone-based paleotemperature reconstructions for the past 21 kyr from Lake Balikun, central Asia. We show, unlike the initiation of Holocene warm conditions at ∼11 kyr BP in the monsoon regions, the arid central Asia remained in a glacial-like cold condition prior to 8 kyr BP and experienced abrupt warming of ∼9 °C after the collapse of the Laurentide ice sheet. Comparison with pollen and other geochemical data indicates the abrupt warming is closely associated with major increase in the moisture supply to the region. Together, our multiproxy data indicate ∼2 thousand years delay of temperature and moisture optimum relative to local summer insolation maximum, suggesting major influence of the Laurentide ice sheet and other high latitude ice sheet forcings on the regional atmospheric circulation. In addition, our data reveal a temperature drop by ∼4 °C around 4 kyr BP lasting multiple centuries, coinciding with severe increases in aridity previously reported based on multiproxy data. In contrast, model simulations display a much less pronounced delay in the initiation of Holocene warm conditions, raising unresolved questions about the relative importance of local radiative forcing and high-latitude ice on temperature in this region.

Extreme drought causes distinct water acidification and eutrophication in the Lower Lakes (Lakes Alexandrina and Albert), Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Siyue; Bush, Richard T.; Mao, Rong; Xiong, Lihua; Ye, Chen

2017-01-01

Droughts are set to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change and water extraction, and understanding their influence on ecosystems is urgent in the Holocene. Low rainfall across the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of Australia resulted in an unprecedented water level decline in the Lower Lakes (Lakes Alexandrina and Albert) at the downstream end of the river system. A comprehensive data covering pre-drought (2004-2006), drought (2007-2010) and post-drought (2010-2013) was firstly used to unravel drought effects on water quality in the contrasting main parts and margins of the two Lakes, particularly following water acidification resulting from acid sulfate soil oxidation. Salinity, nutrients and Chl-a significantly increased during the drought in the Lake main waterbody, while pH remained stable or showed minor shifts. In contrast to the Lake Alexandrina, total dissolved solid (TDS) and electrical conductivity (EC) during the post-drought more than doubled the pre-drought period in the Lake Albert as being a terminal lake system with narrow and shallow entrance. Rewetting of the exposed pyrite-containing sediment resulted in very low pH (below 3) in Lake margins, which positively contributed to salinity increases via SO42- release and limestone dissolution. Very acidic water (pH 2-3) was neutralised naturally by lake refill, but aerial limestone dosing was required for neutralisation of water acidity during the drought period. The Lower Lakes are characterized as hypereutrophic with much higher salinity, nutrient and algae concentrations than guideline levels for aquatic ecosystem. These results suggest that, in the Lower Lakes, drought could cause water quality deterioration through water acidification and increased nutrient and Chl-a concentrations, more effective water management in the lake catchment is thus crucial to prevent the similar water quality deterioration since the projected intensification of droughts. A comparative assessment on lake

Precise Surface Exposure Dating of Early Holocene and Little Ice Age Moraines in the Cordillera Vilcabamba of Southern Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Licciardi, J. M.; Schaefer, J. M.; Lund, D. C.; Taggart, J. R.

2008-12-01

We have established precise ages of two glacial events in the tropical Andean highlands of southern Peru. The field site is located on the flanks of Nevado Salcantay (6271 m asl; 13°20'S latitude), the highest peak in the Cordillera Vilcabamba. A two-fold sequence of nested lateral and end moraines was mapped in a glacial trough emanating from the south face of Salcantay. Well-defined outer and inner moraines were deposited by valley glaciers that terminated 5 km and 3 km, respectively, from their head on the Salcantay massif. Cosmogenic 10Be surface exposure dating of boulders on the outer (n = 7) and inner (n = 7) moraine crests expands upon initial age control for these deposits and improves substantially on the precision of earlier 10Be measurements. The new results yield mean ages of 9.0 ± 0.3 ka for the outer moraine and 195 ± 24 years for the inner moraine, corresponding to glacial events during the early and latest Holocene. These ages are derived using the CRONUS-Earth 10Be exposure age calculator with Lal-Stone production rate scaling and the default height-pressure relationship. The inner moraine age correlates with the timing of the Little Ice Age as defined from northern mid- and high latitude records, and indicates considerable expansion of glaciers heading on Nevado Salcantay during this climatic minimum. Recent geomorphic mapping has identified similar sequences of moraines in adjacent drainages on and near Salcantay, suggesting a broader regional signal of two prominent Holocene glacial events in this segment of the southern Peruvian Andes; 10Be dating of these additional moraines is underway. Our new glacier chronologies complement ice core and lacustrine paleoclimate records in the vicinity, thereby increasing spatial and temporal coverage for identifying patterns of climate change in the tropical Andes during the Holocene. Apart from their paleoclimatic significance, the results also demonstrate a newly- developed capability of 10Be exposure

Simple technologies and diverse food strategies of the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene at Huaca Prieta, Coastal Peru

PubMed Central

Dillehay, Tom D.; Goodbred, Steve; Pino, Mario; Vásquez Sánchez, Víctor F.; Tham, Teresa Rosales; Adovasio, James; Collins, Michael B.; Netherly, Patricia J.; Hastorf, Christine A.; Chiou, Katherine L.; Piperno, Dolores; Rey, Isabel; Velchoff, Nancy

2017-01-01

Simple pebble tools, ephemeral cultural features, and the remains of maritime and terrestrial foods are present in undisturbed Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene deposits underneath a large human-made mound at Huaca Prieta and nearby sites on the Pacific coast of northern Peru. Radiocarbon ages indicate an intermittent human presence dated between ~15,000 and 8000 calendar years ago before the mound was built. The absence of fishhooks, harpoons, and bifacial stone tools suggests that technologies of gathering, trapping, clubbing, and exchange were used primarily to procure food resources along the shoreline and in estuarine wetlands and distant mountains. The stone artifacts are minimally worked unifacial stone tools characteristic of several areas of South America. Remains of avocado, bean, and possibly cultivated squash and chile pepper are also present, suggesting human transport and consumption. Our new findings emphasize an early coastal lifeway of diverse food procurement strategies that suggest detailed observation of resource availability in multiple environments and a knowledgeable economic organization, although technologies were simple and campsites were seemingly ephemeral and discontinuous. These findings raise questions about the pace of early human movement along some areas of the Pacific coast and the level of knowledge and technology required to exploit maritime and inland resources. PMID:28560337

Simple technologies and diverse food strategies of the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene at Huaca Prieta, Coastal Peru.

PubMed

Dillehay, Tom D; Goodbred, Steve; Pino, Mario; Vásquez Sánchez, Víctor F; Tham, Teresa Rosales; Adovasio, James; Collins, Michael B; Netherly, Patricia J; Hastorf, Christine A; Chiou, Katherine L; Piperno, Dolores; Rey, Isabel; Velchoff, Nancy

2017-05-01

Simple pebble tools, ephemeral cultural features, and the remains of maritime and terrestrial foods are present in undisturbed Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene deposits underneath a large human-made mound at Huaca Prieta and nearby sites on the Pacific coast of northern Peru. Radiocarbon ages indicate an intermittent human presence dated between ~15,000 and 8000 calendar years ago before the mound was built. The absence of fishhooks, harpoons, and bifacial stone tools suggests that technologies of gathering, trapping, clubbing, and exchange were used primarily to procure food resources along the shoreline and in estuarine wetlands and distant mountains. The stone artifacts are minimally worked unifacial stone tools characteristic of several areas of South America. Remains of avocado, bean, and possibly cultivated squash and chile pepper are also present, suggesting human transport and consumption. Our new findings emphasize an early coastal lifeway of diverse food procurement strategies that suggest detailed observation of resource availability in multiple environments and a knowledgeable economic organization, although technologies were simple and campsites were seemingly ephemeral and discontinuous. These findings raise questions about the pace of early human movement along some areas of the Pacific coast and the level of knowledge and technology required to exploit maritime and inland resources.

Network Candidate Genes in Breeding for Drought Tolerant Crops

PubMed Central

Krannich, Christoph Tim; Maletzki, Lisa; Kurowsky, Christina; Horn, Renate

2015-01-01

Climate change leading to increased periods of low water availability as well as increasing demands for food in the coming years makes breeding for drought tolerant crops a high priority. Plants have developed diverse strategies and mechanisms to survive drought stress. However, most of these represent drought escape or avoidance strategies like early flowering or low stomatal conductance that are not applicable in breeding for crops with high yields under drought conditions. Even though a great deal of research is ongoing, especially in cereals, in this regard, not all mechanisms involved in drought tolerance are yet understood. The identification of candidate genes for drought tolerance that have a high potential to be used for breeding drought tolerant crops represents a challenge. Breeding for drought tolerant crops has to focus on acceptable yields under water-limited conditions and not on survival. However, as more and more knowledge about the complex networks and the cross talk during drought is available, more options are revealed. In addition, it has to be considered that conditioning a crop for drought tolerance might require the production of metabolites and might cost the plants energy and resources that cannot be used in terms of yield. Recent research indicates that yield penalty exists and efficient breeding for drought tolerant crops with acceptable yields under well-watered and drought conditions might require uncoupling yield penalty from drought tolerance. PMID:26193269

Network Candidate Genes in Breeding for Drought Tolerant Crops.

PubMed

Krannich, Christoph Tim; Maletzki, Lisa; Kurowsky, Christina; Horn, Renate

2015-07-17

Climate change leading to increased periods of low water availability as well as increasing demands for food in the coming years makes breeding for drought tolerant crops a high priority. Plants have developed diverse strategies and mechanisms to survive drought stress. However, most of these represent drought escape or avoidance strategies like early flowering or low stomatal conductance that are not applicable in breeding for crops with high yields under drought conditions. Even though a great deal of research is ongoing, especially in cereals, in this regard, not all mechanisms involved in drought tolerance are yet understood. The identification of candidate genes for drought tolerance that have a high potential to be used for breeding drought tolerant crops represents a challenge. Breeding for drought tolerant crops has to focus on acceptable yields under water-limited conditions and not on survival. However, as more and more knowledge about the complex networks and the cross talk during drought is available, more options are revealed. In addition, it has to be considered that conditioning a crop for drought tolerance might require the production of metabolites and might cost the plants energy and resources that cannot be used in terms of yield. Recent research indicates that yield penalty exists and efficient breeding for drought tolerant crops with acceptable yields under well-watered and drought conditions might require uncoupling yield penalty from drought tolerance.

Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano seasonally dry tropical forest.

PubMed

Power, M J; Whitney, B S; Mayle, F E; Neves, D M; de Boer, E J; Maclean, K S

2016-06-05

South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12 000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the Early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined but severe regional droughts persisted through the Middle Holocene, SDTFs, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTFs are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano seasonally dry tropical forest

PubMed Central

Power, M. J.; Whitney, B. S.; Mayle, F. E.; Neves, D. M.; de Boer, E. J.; Maclean, K. S.

2016-01-01

South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12 000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the Early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined but severe regional droughts persisted through the Middle Holocene, SDTFs, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTFs are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216522

New insights into broad spectrum communities of the Early Holocene Near East: The birds of Hallan Çemi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeder, Melinda A.; Spitzer, Megan D.

2016-11-01

The Early Holocene in Near East was a pivotal transitional period that witnessed dramatic changes in climate and environment, human settlement, major changes in subsistence strategies focusing on a broad range of different plant and animal resources, and a radical restructuring of social relations. The remarkable corpus of avifauna from the Early Holocene site of Hallan Çemi in southeastern Turkey sheds new light on key issues about this dynamic period that has been termed the ;Broad Spectrum Revolution;. The avifauna from this important site demonstrate how Hallan Çemi occupants took advantage of the site's strategic location at the junction of multiple environmental zones by extracting a diverse range of seasonally available resources from both near-by and more distant eco-zones to cobble together a stable subsistence economy capable of supporting this small community throughout the year. They give testimony to the impacts of resource utilization over time, especially on species unable to rebound from sustained human hunting. At the same time, they show how Hallan Çemi residents mitigated these impacts by replacing depleted resources with alternative, more resilient ones that could be more sustainably harvested. They open a window onto the growing investment in feasting and ritual activity that helped bind this community together. In so doing they provide a means of empirically evaluating the efficacy of contrasting explanatory frameworks for the Broad Spectrum Revolution that gave rise to the subsequent domestication of plant and animals in the Near East. Contrary to frameworks that cast these developments as responses to resource depression, lessons learned from the Hallan Çemi avifauna lend support to frameworks that emphasize the human capacity to strategically target, capitalize, and improve upon circumscribed resource rich environments in a way that permits more permanent occupation of these niches. And they underscore the degree to which social and

Early Holocene hydroclimate of Baffin Bay: Understanding the interplay between abrupt climate change events and ice sheet fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corcoran, M. C.; Thomas, E. K.; Castañeda, I. S.; Briner, J. P.

2017-12-01

Understanding the causes of ice sheet fluctuations resulting in sea level rise is essential in today's warming climate. In high-latitude ice-sheet-proximal environments such as Baffin Bay, studying both the cause and the rate of ice sheet variability during past abrupt climate change events aids in predictions. Past climate reconstructions are used to understand ice sheet responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. The 9,300 and 8,200 yr BP events are examples of abrupt climate change events in the Baffin Bay region during which there were multiple re-advances of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. High-resolution (decadal-scale) hydroclimate variability near the ice sheet margins during these abrupt climate change events is still unknown. We will generate a decadal-scale record of early Holocene temperature and precipitation using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes, δ2Hwax, from a lake sediment archive on Baffin Island, western Baffin Bay, to better understand abrupt climate change in this region. Shifts in temperature and moisture source result in changes in environmental water δ2H, which in turn is reflected in δ2Hwax, allowing for past hydroclimate to be determined from these compound-specific isotopes. The combination of terrestrial and aquatic δ2Hwax is used to determine soil evaporation and is ultimately used to reconstruct moisture variability. We will compare our results with a previous analysis of δ2Hwax and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a temperature and pH proxy, in lake sediment from western Greenland, eastern Baffin Bay, which indicates that cool and dry climate occurred in response to freshwater forcing events in the Labrador Sea. Reconstructing and comparing records on both the western and eastern sides of Baffin Bay during the early Holocene will allow for a spatial understanding of temperature and moisture balance changes during abrupt climate events, aiding in ice sheet modeling and predictions of future sea level

Temporal network analysis identifies early physiological and transcriptomic indicators of mild drought in Brassica rapa

PubMed Central

Gehan, Malia A; Mockler, Todd C; Weinig, Cynthia; Ewers, Brent E

2017-01-01

The dynamics of local climates make development of agricultural strategies challenging. Yield improvement has progressed slowly, especially in drought-prone regions where annual crop production suffers from episodic aridity. Underlying drought responses are circadian and diel control of gene expression that regulate daily variations in metabolic and physiological pathways. To identify transcriptomic changes that occur in the crop Brassica rapa during initial perception of drought, we applied a co-expression network approach to associate rhythmic gene expression changes with physiological responses. Coupled analysis of transcriptome and physiological parameters over a two-day time course in control and drought-stressed plants provided temporal resolution necessary for correlation of network modules with dynamic changes in stomatal conductance, photosynthetic rate, and photosystem II efficiency. This approach enabled the identification of drought-responsive genes based on their differential rhythmic expression profiles in well-watered versus droughted networks and provided new insights into the dynamic physiological changes that occur during drought. PMID:28826479

A multi-proxy record of Holocene hydroclimate change from a windward montane wetland, Molokai, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beilman, D. W.; Kallstrom, R.; Elison Timm, O.; Nichols, J. E.; Massa, C.

2016-12-01

A core raised from a windward mountain bog on the Island of Molokai, Hawaii was studied to reconstruct changes in hydroclimate and ecosystem response. The 250-cm radiocarbon-dated profile shows that formation of peat (organic matter greater than 90% and bulk density below 0.2 g cm-3) began around 10,000 years ago, in response to wetter conditions needed to waterlog and stabilize soil organic matter, and has continued through the Holocene. A previously-published pollen record from this site has no chronological information, but suggests that the dominant forest species have been present throughout but varied substantially in their relative abundance over Holocene time. The stable carbon isotope value of organic matter (δ13COM) showed a pattern of increasingly more-positive values from 10,000 to 8000 years ago, consistent with decreased stomatal conductance in woody vegetation and an early Holocene drying trend. An overall Holocene decrease in rainfall over the Pacific near Hawaii is also observed in transient model simulations forced by insolation, greenhouse gases and ice. Between 4000 and 2000 years ago, more-negative δ13COM values and a maximum in organic carbon accumulation suggest a period of somewhat wetter climate that seems to have ended around 2,000 years ago. The distribution and abundance of leaf wax compounds including alkyl lipids in the profile suggests a lower relative abundance of woody species 8000 to 3000 years ago and a shift towards more woody inputs preceding the arrival of humans. Taken together, evidence from this windward location shows an overall decrease in rainfall during the Holocene in general agreement with other Hawaii proxy data and model simulations. But these new data also show important millennial-scale changes in hydroclimate and ecosystem responses. Comparison to proxy records at leeward Hawaii locations revealed an onset of peat formation at around the same time at a similar elevation in the early Holocene, but both

Leaf Responses to Mild Drought Stress in Natural Variants of Arabidopsis1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Clauw, Pieter; Coppens, Frederik; De Beuf, Kristof; Dhondt, Stijn; Van Daele, Twiggy; Maleux, Katrien; Storme, Veronique; Clement, Lieven; Gonzalez, Nathalie; Inzé, Dirk

2015-01-01

Although the response of plants exposed to severe drought stress has been studied extensively, little is known about how plants adapt their growth under mild drought stress conditions. Here, we analyzed the leaf and rosette growth response of six Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) accessions originating from different geographic regions when exposed to mild drought stress. The automated phenotyping platform WIWAM was used to impose stress early during leaf development, when the third leaf emerges from the shoot apical meristem. Analysis of growth-related phenotypes showed differences in leaf development between the accessions. In all six accessions, mild drought stress reduced both leaf pavement cell area and number without affecting the stomatal index. Genome-wide transcriptome analysis (using RNA sequencing) of early developing leaf tissue identified 354 genes differentially expressed under mild drought stress in the six accessions. Our results indicate the existence of a robust response over different genetic backgrounds to mild drought stress in developing leaves. The processes involved in the overall mild drought stress response comprised abscisic acid signaling, proline metabolism, and cell wall adjustments. In addition to these known severe drought-related responses, 87 genes were found to be specific for the response of young developing leaves to mild drought stress. PMID:25604532

A Tibetan lake sediment record of Holocene Indian summer monsoon variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bird, Broxton W.; Polisar, Pratigya J.; Lei, Yanbin; Thompson, Lonnie G.; Yao, Tandong; Finney, Bruce P.; Bain, Daniel J.; Pompeani, David P.; Steinman, Byron A.

2014-08-01

Sedimentological data and hydrogen isotopic measurements of leaf wax long-chain n-alkanes (δDwax) from an alpine lake sediment archive on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (Paru Co) provide a Holocene perspective of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) activity. The sedimentological data reflect variations in lake level and erosion related to local ISM rainfall over the Paru Co catchment, whereas δDwax reflects integrated, synoptic-scale ISM dynamics. Our results indicate that maximum ISM rainfall occurred between 10.1 and ˜5.2 ka, during which time there were five century-scale high and low lake stands. After 5.2 ka, the ISM trended toward drier conditions to the present, with the exception of a pluvial event centered at 0.9 ka. The Paru Co results share similarities with paleoclimate records from across the Tibetan Plateau, suggesting millennial-scale ISM dynamics were expressed coherently. These millennial variations largely track gradual decreases in orbital insolation, the southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), decreasing zonal Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and cooling surface air temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau. Centennial ISM and lake-level variability at Paru Co closely track reconstructed surface air temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau, but may also reflect Indian Ocean Dipole events, particularly during the early Holocene when ENSO variability was attenuated. Variations in the latitude of the ITCZ during the early and late Holocene also appear to have exerted an influence on centennial ISM rainfall.

Final Laurentide ice-sheet deglaciation and Holocene climate-sea level change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ullman, David J.; Carlson, Anders E.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Clark, Peter U.; Cuzzone, Joshua; Milne, Glenn A.; Winsor, Kelsey; Caffee, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Despite elevated summer insolation forcing during the early Holocene, global ice sheets retained nearly half of their volume from the Last Glacial Maximum, as indicated by deglacial records of global mean sea level (GMSL). Partitioning the GMSL rise among potential sources requires accurate dating of ice-sheet extent to estimate ice-sheet volume. Here, we date the final retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet with 10Be surface exposure ages for the Labrador Dome, the largest of the remnant Laurentide ice domes during the Holocene. We show that the Labrador Dome deposited moraines during North Atlantic cold events at ∼10.3 ka, 9.3 ka and 8.2 ka, suggesting that these regional climate events helped stabilize the retreating Labrador Dome in the early Holocene. After Hudson Bay became seasonally ice free at ∼8.2 ka, the majority of Laurentide ice-sheet melted abruptly within a few centuries. We demonstrate through high-resolution regional climate model simulations that the thermal properties of a seasonally ice-free Hudson Bay would have increased Laurentide ice-sheet ablation and thus contributed to the subsequent rapid Labrador Dome retreat. Finally, our new 10Be chronology indicates full Laurentide ice-sheet had completely deglaciated by 6.7 ± 0.4 ka, which re quires that Antarctic ice sheets contributed 3.6–6.5 m to GMSL rise since 6.3–7.1 ka.

Holocene sea-level changes in the Falkland Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newton, Tom; Gehrels, Roland; Daley, Tim; Long, Antony; Bentley, Mike

2014-05-01

present sea level. RSL then fell slowly during the middle and late Holocene, eroding the elevated tidal flat deposits in places, and allowing development of thin salt marsh deposits and encroachment of freshwater marsh. Our new sea-level index points are roughly in agreement with GIA model predictions but place tight constraints on the timing of early Holocene RSL rise and the height and timing of the maximum Holocene RSL position.

The Physiology and Proteomics of Drought Tolerance in Maize: Early Stomatal Closure as a Cause of Lower Tolerance to Short-Term Dehydration?

PubMed Central

Benešová, Monika; Holá, Dana; Fischer, Lukáš; Jedelský, Petr L.; Hnilička, František; Wilhelmová, Naďa; Rothová, Olga; Kočová, Marie; Procházková, Dagmar; Honnerová, Jana; Fridrichová, Lenka; Hniličková, Helena

2012-01-01

Understanding the response of a crop to drought is the first step in the breeding of tolerant genotypes. In our study, two maize (Zea mays L.) genotypes with contrasting sensitivity to dehydration were subjected to moderate drought conditions. The subsequent analysis of their physiological parameters revealed a decreased stomatal conductance accompanied by a slighter decrease in the relative water content in the sensitive genotype. In contrast, the tolerant genotype maintained open stomata and active photosynthesis, even under dehydration conditions. Drought-induced changes in the leaf proteome were analyzed by two independent approaches, 2D gel electrophoresis and iTRAQ analysis, which provided compatible but only partially overlapping results. Drought caused the up-regulation of protective and stress-related proteins (mainly chaperones and dehydrins) in both genotypes. The differences in the levels of various detoxification proteins corresponded well with the observed changes in the activities of antioxidant enzymes. The number and levels of up-regulated protective proteins were generally lower in the sensitive genotype, implying a reduced level of proteosynthesis, which was also indicated by specific changes in the components of the translation machinery. Based on these results, we propose that the hypersensitive early stomatal closure in the sensitive genotype leads to the inhibition of photosynthesis and, subsequently, to a less efficient synthesis of the protective/detoxification proteins that are associated with drought tolerance. PMID:22719860

The physiology and proteomics of drought tolerance in maize: early stomatal closure as a cause of lower tolerance to short-term dehydration?

PubMed

Benešová, Monika; Holá, Dana; Fischer, Lukáš; Jedelský, Petr L; Hnilička, František; Wilhelmová, Naďa; Rothová, Olga; Kočová, Marie; Procházková, Dagmar; Honnerová, Jana; Fridrichová, Lenka; Hniličková, Helena

2012-01-01

Understanding the response of a crop to drought is the first step in the breeding of tolerant genotypes. In our study, two maize (Zea mays L.) genotypes with contrasting sensitivity to dehydration were subjected to moderate drought conditions. The subsequent analysis of their physiological parameters revealed a decreased stomatal conductance accompanied by a slighter decrease in the relative water content in the sensitive genotype. In contrast, the tolerant genotype maintained open stomata and active photosynthesis, even under dehydration conditions. Drought-induced changes in the leaf proteome were analyzed by two independent approaches, 2D gel electrophoresis and iTRAQ analysis, which provided compatible but only partially overlapping results. Drought caused the up-regulation of protective and stress-related proteins (mainly chaperones and dehydrins) in both genotypes. The differences in the levels of various detoxification proteins corresponded well with the observed changes in the activities of antioxidant enzymes. The number and levels of up-regulated protective proteins were generally lower in the sensitive genotype, implying a reduced level of proteosynthesis, which was also indicated by specific changes in the components of the translation machinery. Based on these results, we propose that the hypersensitive early stomatal closure in the sensitive genotype leads to the inhibition of photosynthesis and, subsequently, to a less efficient synthesis of the protective/detoxification proteins that are associated with drought tolerance.

A Holocene Lake Record from Laguna Del Maule (LdM) in the Chilean Andes: Climatic and Volcanic Controls on Lake Depositional Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valero-Garces, B. L.; Frugone Alvarez, M.; Barreiro-Lostres, F.; Carrevedo, M. L.; Latorre Hidalgo, C.; Giralt, S.; Maldonado, A.; Bernárdez, P.; Prego, R.; Moreno-Caballud, A.

2014-12-01

Central Chile is a tectonically active, drought-prone region sensitive to latitudinal variations in large-scale cold fronts associated with fluctuations of the Pacific subtropical high. Holocene high-resolution records of climate and volcanic events could help inform more on the frequency of extensive droughts as well as volcanic and seismic hazards. LdM is a high altitude, volcanic lake located in the Transition Southern Volcanic Zone (~36°S, 2200 m.a.s.l). The LdM volcanic field is a very seismically and volcanically active zone in the Andes, with several caldera-forming eruptions over the last 1.5 Ma, and intense postglacial activity. In 2013, we recovered over 40 m of sediment cores at four sites of LdM and collected > 20 km of seismic lines. The cores were imaged, their physical and geochemical properties analysed with a Geotek MSCL and XRF scanner respectively, and sampled for TOC, TIC, TS, TN, BioSi, and bulk mineralogy. The chronology was constructed with a Bayesian age-depth model including 210Pb-137Cs, the Quizapú volcanic ash (1932 AD) and 17 AMS 14C dates. The 4.8 m long composite sequence spans the Late glacial and Holocene.Sediments are massive to banded, quartz and plagioclase-rich silts with variable diatom (BioSi, 15- 30 %) and organic matter content (TOC, 1-5 %). Four main units have been defined based on sedimentological and geochemical composition. The transition from Unit 4 to 3 is ascribed to the onset of the Holocene; Unit 2 spans the mid Holocene, and Unit 1 the last 4 ka. Higher (lower) TOC, Br/Ti and Fe/Mn ratios in units 1 and 3 (2 and 4) suggest higher (lower) organic productivity in the lake and dominant oxic (anoxic) conditions at the bottom of the lake. Up to 17 ash and lapilli layers mark volcanic events, mostly grouped in units 1 and 3. Periods of higher lake productivity (units 1 and 3) are synchronous to higher frequency of volcanic events. Some climate transitions (LIA, 4ka, 8ka and 11ka) are evident in the LdM sequence

Latitudinal Expansion of the Holocene Optimum in the East Asian Monsoon Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, X.; Sun, L.; Zhan, T.; Huang, W.; Zhou, X.; Hao, Q.; He, X.; Zhao, C.; Zhang, J.; Qiao, Y.; Ge, J.; Yan, P.; Shao, D.; Chu, Z.; Yang, W.

2014-12-01

With increasingly abundant high resolution and high precision records of East Asian monsoon, its spatial and temporal dynamics during the Holocene have been extensively studied. However, partly due to the lack of records in high latitude areas and the age uncertainties, these studies characterized a wide range of spatial-temporal patterns of Holocene Optimum (HO). We reconstructed a 14,000-year record of vegetation using sediments from a crater lake in Northeast China. Analyses of the vegetation time series show that HO began around 6,000 a BP in Northeast China, significantly later than generally recognized. By comparison with Holocene records of vegetation in other regions of the East Asia, we found a marked northward shift of initial time of HO from 10,600 a BP in South China to 6,000 a BP in Northeast China, which appeared to be forced by the shrinkage of the northern hemisphere ice-sheet (NHIS) during early to mid Holocene. Finally, we fitted a regression model of initial HO time on latitude, which allows us to make prediction of initial HO time based on their geographical locations. This study reveals a strong relationship between latitude and initial HO times and provides a window towards understanding the joint forcing of high and low latitude factors on regional climate.

Holocene moisture and East Asian summer monsoon evolution in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded by Lake Qinghai and its environs: A review of conflicting proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Fahu; Wu, Duo; Chen, Jianhui; Zhou, Aifeng; Yu, Junqing; Shen, Ji; Wang, Sumin; Huang, Xiaozhong

2016-12-01

Climatic and environmental changes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau are controlled by the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and the westerlies, two key circulation components of the global climate system which directly affect a large human population and associated ecosystems in eastern Asia. During the past few decades, a series of Holocene palaeoclimatic records have been obtained from sediment cores from Lake Qinghai and from various other geological archives in the surrounding area of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. However, because of uncertainties regarding the sediment chronologies and the climatic significance of the proxies used, the nature of Holocene climatic changes in the region remains unclear and even controversial. Here we review all major classes of the published data from drilled cores from Lake Qinghai, as well as other evidence from lakes and aeolian deposits from surrounding areas, in order to reconstruct changes in moisture patterns and possible summer monsoon evolution in the area during the Holocene. Combining the results of moisture and precipitation proxies such as vegetation history, pollen-based precipitation reconstruction, aeolian activity, lake water depth/lake level changes, salinity and sediment redness, we conclude that moisture and precipitation began to increase in the early Holocene, reached their maximum during the middle Holocene, and decreased during the late Holocene - similar to the pattern of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in northern China. It is clear that the region experienced a relatively dry climate and weak EASM during the early Holocene, as indicated by relatively low tree pollen percentages and fluctuating pollen concentrations; generally low lake levels of Lake Qinghai and the adjacent Lake Hurleg and Lake Toson in the Qaidam Basin; and widely distributed aeolian sand deposition in the Lake Qinghai Basin and the nearby Gonghe Basin to the south, and in the eastern Qaidam Basin to the west. We argue that the

Tree ring-based seven-century drought records for the Western Himalaya, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Ram R.

2013-05-01

The paucity of available instrumental climate records in cold and arid regions of the western Himalaya, India, hampers our understanding of the long-term variability of regional droughts, which seriously affect the agrarian economy of the region. Using ring width chronologies of Cedrus deodara and Pinus gerardiana together from a network of moisture-stressed sites, Palmer Drought Severity Index values for October-May back to 1310 A.D. were developed. The twentieth century features dominant decadal-scale pluvial phases (1981-1995, 1952-1968, and 1918-1934) as compared to the severe droughts in the early seventeenth century (1617-1640) as well as late fifteenth to early sixteenth (1491-1526) centuries. The drought anomalies are positively (negatively) associated with central Pacific (Indo-Pacific Warm Pool) sea surface temperature anomalies. However, non-stationarity in such relationships appears to be the major riddle in the predictability of long-term droughts much needed for the sustainable development of the ecologically sensitive region of the Himalayas.

Holocene multidecadal- to millennial-scale variations in Iceland-Scotland overflow and their relationship to climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mjell, Tor Lien; Ninnemann, Ulysses S.; Eldevik, Tor; Kleiven, Helga Kikki F.

2015-05-01

The Nordic Seas overflows are an important part of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. While there is growing evidence that the overflow of dense water changed on orbital time scales during the Holocene, less is known about the variability on shorter time scales beyond the instrumental record. Here we reconstruct the relative changes in flow strength of Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW), the eastern branch of the overflows, on multidecadal-millennial time scales. The reconstruction is based on mean sortable silt (SS>¯) from a sediment core on the Gardar Drift (60°19'N, 23°58'W, 2081 m). Our SS>¯ record reveals that the main variance in ISOW vigor occurred on millennial time scales (1-2 kyr) with particularly prominent fluctuations after 8 kyr. Superimposed on the millennial variability, there were multidecadal-centennial flow speed fluctuations during the early Holocene (10-9 kyr) and one prominent minimum at 0.9 kyr. We find a broad agreement between reconstructed ISOW and regional North Atlantic climate, where a strong (weak) ISOW is generally associated with warm (cold) climate. We further identify the possible contribution of anomalous heat and freshwater forcing, respectively, related to reconstructed overflow variability. We infer that ocean poleward heat transport can explain the relationship between regional climate and ISOW during the middle to late Holocene, whereas freshwater input provides a possible explanation for the reduced overflow during early Holocene (8-10 kyr).

Unexpected early extinction of the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) in Sweden and climatic impact on its Holocene range.

PubMed

Sommer, Robert S; Lindqvist, Charlotte; Persson, Arne; Bringsøe, Henrik; Rhodin, Anders G J; Schneeweiss, Norbert; Siroký, Pavel; Bachmann, Lutz; Fritz, Uwe

2009-03-01

Using ancient DNA sequences of subfossil European pond turtles (Emys orbicularis) from Britain, Central and North Europe and accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dating for turtle remains from most Swedish sites, we provide evidence for a Holocene range expansion of the pond turtle from the southeastern Balkans into Britain, Central Europe and Scandinavia, according to the 'grasshopper pattern' of Hewitt. Northeastern Europe and adjacent Asia were colonized from another refuge located further east. With increasing annual mean temperatures, pond turtles reached southern Sweden approximately 9800 years ago. Until approximately 5500 years ago, rising temperatures facilitated a further range expansion up to Ostergötland, Sweden (approximately 58 degrees 30'N). However, around 5500 years ago pond turtle records suddenly terminate in Sweden, some 1500 years before the Holocene thermal maximum ended in Scandinavia and distinctly earlier than previously thought. This extinction coincides with a temporary cooling oscillation during the Holocene thermal maximum and is likely related to lower summer temperatures deteriorating reproductive success. Although climatic conditions improved later again, recolonization of Sweden from southern source populations was prevented by the Holocene submergence of the previous land connection via the Danish Straits that occurred approximately 8500 years ago.

Possible impacts of early-11th-, middle-12th-, and late-13th-century droughts on western Native Americans and the Mississippian Cahokians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, L.V.; Berry, M.S.; Jolie, E.A.; Spangler, J.D.; Stahle, D.W.; Hattori, E.M.

2007-01-01

One or more of three intense and persistent droughts impacted some Native American cultures in the early-11th, middle-12th and late-13th centuries, including the Anasazi, Fremont, Lovelock, and Mississippian (Cahokian) prehistorical cultures. Tree-ring-based reconstructions of precipitation and temperature indicate that warm drought periods occurred between AD 990 and 1060, AD 1135 and 1170, and AD 1276 and 1297. These droughts occurred during minima in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and may have been associated with positive values of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Each of the Native American cultures was supported, to a greater or lesser degree, by precipitation-dependent resources. Both the Four Corners region and Cahokia were sites of intense growth between about AD 1050 and 1130, and by AD 1150, cultures in both regions were undergoing stress. By AD 1300 the Anasazi and Fremont cultures had collapsed and their residual populations had either left their homelands or withered. In the case of Fremont populations, the AD 990-1060 drought may have had the greatest impact. This drought also may have affected the Anasazi, for it was at the end of this drought that some people from Chaco migrated to the San Juan River valley and founded the Salmon Ruin great house. Detailed data do not exist on the number of Lovelock habitation sites or populations over time; however, Lovelock populations appear to have retreated from the western Great Basin to California by AD 1300 or shortly thereafter.

Interpreting the Holocene fluctuations of Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru: using a combination of glacial and non-glacial lake records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroup, J. S.; Kelly, M. A.; Lowell, T. V.; Smith, C.; Beal, S. A., Jr.; Tapia, P. M.

2016-12-01

The past fluctuations of Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC) are an indicator of tropical paleoclimate. At QIC, ice core and glacial geological records provide late Holocene climate constraints. However, early and middle Holocene QIC fluctuations are less well-known. To interpret past QIC fluctuations, we present Holocene-long lake sediment records from Challpacocha, a lake fed by QIC meltwater, and Yanacocha, a lake that has not received meltwater during the Holocene. To assess the clastic sediment delivered to Challpacocha by QIC meltwater, we compare visual stratigraphy, X-ray fluorescence chemistry, grainsize, loss on ignition and clastic flux records from both lakes (additional Yanacocha proxies are presented by Axford et al. (this meeting, abstract 157985)). We compare the meltwater derived clastic sediment record from Challpacocha with moraine and stratigraphic records of past ice extents during the late Holocene. This comparison indicates that clastic sediment flux in Challpacocha increased during QIC recession and decreased during QIC advance, or significantly reduced QIC extent. We then use the Challpacocha clastic sediment record to interpret early and middle Holocene QIC fluctuations. Based on the Challpacocha sediment record, combined with prior work, we suggest that from 11 to 6.5 ka QIC was similar to or smaller than its late Holocene extent. From 6.9 to 6.5 ka QIC may have been absent from the landscape. At 3-2.4 and 0.62-0.31 ka QIC experienced the most extensive Holocene fluctuations. We compare the clastic sediment fluxes from Challpacocha and Pacococha (a nearby lake fed by QIC; Rodbell et al., 2008) to infer QIC expansion between 6.5-5 ka. This is supported by 14C ages of in-situ subfossil plants which indicate ice advance at 6.3-4.7 ka (Thompson et al., 2006, 2013; Buffen et al., 2009). Our study highlights the value of using multiple datasets to improve lake sediment record interpretations.

Drought vulnerability assessment for prioritising drought warning implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, Gustavo; Faneca Sànchez, Marta; Mwangi, Emmah; Barbosa, Paulo; Iglesias, Ana; Garrote, Luis; Werner, Micha

2014-05-01

Drought warning provides a potentially efficient approach to mitigation of drought impacts, and should be targeted at areas most vulnerable to being adversely impacted. Assessing drought vulnerability is, however, complex and needs to consider susceptibility to drought impact as well as the capacity to cope with drought. In this paper a Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) is proposed that considers four primary components that reflect the capacity of society to adapt to drought; the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the available infrastructure and technology. The DVI is established as a weighted combination of these four components, each a composite of selected indicators. Constituent indicators are calculated based on national and/or regional census data and statistics, and while the resulting DVI should not be considered an absolute measure of drought vulnerability it does provide for a prioritisation of areas that can be used to target drought warning efforts. Sensitivity analysis of weights applied show the established DVI to be robust. Through the DVI the development of drought forecasting and warning can be targeted at the most vulnerable areas. The proposed DVI is applied at both the continental scale in Africa to assess drought vulnerability of the different nations across Africa, and at the national level in Kenya, allowing for prioritisation of the counties within Kenya to drought vulnerability. Results show the relative vulnerability of countries and counties vulnerable to drought. At the continental scale, Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad are found to be the countries most vulnerable to drought. At the national level, the relative vulnerability of the counties across Kenya is found, with counties in the North-East of Kenya having the highest values of DVI. At the country level results were compared with drought disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database, showing a good

Drought variability in six catchments in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwok-Pan, Chun; Onof, Christian; Wheater, Howard

2010-05-01

Drought is fundamentally related to consistent low precipitation levels. Changes in global and regional drought patterns are suggested by numerous recent climate change studies. However, most of the climate change adaptation measures are at a catchment scale, and the development of a framework for studying persistence in precipitation is still at an early stage. Two stochastic approaches for modelling drought severity index (DSI) are proposed to investigate possible changes in droughts in six catchments in the UK. They are the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the generalised linear model (GLM) approach. Results of ARIMA modelling show that mean sea level pressure and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index are important climate variables for short term drought forecasts, whereas relative humidity is not a significant climate variable despite its high correlation with the DSI series. By simulating rainfall series, the generalised linear model (GLM) approach can provide the probability density function of the DSI. GLM simulations indicate that the changes in the 10th and 50th quantiles of drought events are more noticeable than in the 90th extreme droughts. The possibility of extending the GLM approach to support risk-based water management is also discussed.

Holocene cultural history of Red jungle fowl (Gallus gallus) and its domestic descendant in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Joris; Lebrasseur, Ophélie; Deng, Hui; Larson, Greger

2016-06-01

Nearly three decades ago, zooarchaeologists postulated that chicken husbandry was practiced in Northern China by ∼8.0 ka calBP. Recently, ancient mitogenome analyses of galliform remains suggested that Red jungle fowl (Gallus gallus) was already present in the Yellow River basin several millennia earlier, shortly after the onset of the Holocene. If these conclusions are correct, the origins of chicken domestication and husbandry in the region may have been spurred by agricultural innovations in the lower Yellow River basin including millet cultivation, pig husbandry, and dog breeding. In addition, the dispersal of poultry farming from East Asia to Asia Minor and Europe could therefore date to the Neolithic along ancient trade routes across Central Asia rather than via South Asia and Mesopotamia. For this scenario to be plausible, the post-Pleistocene climatic conditions must have been favourable to allow for a northward extension of the native distribution of tropical Red jungle fowl currently not found north of ∼25°N. This study combines Holocene palaeoclimate and archaeofaunal archives with new zooarchaeological insights alongside a discussion of methodological issues and cultural aspects in order to revisit the hypothesis of an early Holocene Gallus domestication and Neolithic poultry husbandry in Northern China. Our results regarding the natural and cultural history of Red jungle fowl and domestic chickens in East Asia, and the timing of chicken dispersal across the Old World suggest that an early Holocene domestication of chickens is problematic at best. We conclude by postulating an alternative model for the early exploitation of a key domestic species in present-day East Asia.

Holocene moisture changes in western China, Central Asia, inferred from stalagmites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Yanjun; Chiang, John C. H.; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Tan, Liangcheng; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; An, Zhisheng

2017-02-01

Central Asia lies at the convergence between the Mediterranean and Asian monsoon climates, and there is a complex interaction between the westerlies with the monsoon to form the climate of that region and its variability. The region is highly vulnerable to changes in rainfall, highlighting the need to understand the underlying controls. We present a stalagmite-based δ18O record from Kesang Cave in western China, using MC-ICP-MS U-series dating and stable isotope analysis. Stalagmite calcite δ18O largely documents changes in the δ18O of precipitation. δ18O in stalagmites was low during the early and middle Holocene (10.0-3.0 ka BP), and shifted to higher values between 3.0 and 2.0 ka BP. After 2.0 ka BP, δ18O fluctuates with distinct centennial-scale variations. Drawing from results of state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model simulations for the preindustrial period and 9 ka BP, we propose that changes in moisture source regions and the wetter climate both contributed to the isotopic depletion of precipitation during the early and middle Holocene. Multiple records from surrounding regions indicate a generally wetter climate during the early and mid- Holocene, supporting our interpretation on the speleothem δ18O. Changes in precipitation seasonality do not appear to be a viable explanation for the observed changes, nor increased penetration of monsoonal moisture to the study site. We speculate that the climatic regime shifted around 3.0-2.0 ka BP towards a drier climate, resulting in temperature having dominant control on precipitation δ18O. The demise of three settlements around 500AD at the margin of Tarim Basin coincided with a period of decreased precipitation and increased temperature that likely affected local water resources, underscoring the potential impact of climate on human habitation in this region.

Observed and Projected Droughts Conditioned on Temperature Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, F.; AghaKouchak, A.; Mazdiyasni, O.

2016-12-01

Droughts have had severe urban, agricultural and wildlife impacts in historical and recent years. In addition, during times of water scarcity, heat stress has been shown to produce compounding climatic and environmental effects. Understanding the overall conditions associated with drought intensities is important for mapping the anatomy of the climate in the changing world. For the study, we evaluated the relationship drought severity has exhibited with temperature shifts between observed periods and also between an ensemble of BCSD downscaled CMIP5 projected and historically modeled datasets. We compared temperatures during different categories of drought severity on a monthly scale, and mapped areas displaying an escalation of temperature with stricter definitions of drought. A historical shift of warmer temperatures in more severe droughts was observed most consistently in Southwestern and Eastern states between the later half of the 20th century and a reference period of the early half of the 20th century. Future projections from an ensemble of CMIP5 models also showed a shift to warmer temperatures during more intense drought events in similar states. Preliminary statistics show that in many areas future droughts will be warmer that the average projected climate. These observed and forecasted shifts in the heating intensity of severe drought events underscore the need to further research these patterns and relationships both spatially and temporally.

Benchmarking a soil moisture data assimilation system for agricultural drought monitoring

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agricultural drought is defined as a shortage of moisture in the root zone of plants. Recently available satellite-based remote sensing data have accelerated development of drought early warning system by providing spatially continuous soil moisture information repeatedly at short-term interval. Non...

Spatiotemporal drought forecasting using nonlinear models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios

2010-05-01

Spatiotemporal data mining is the extraction of unknown and implicit knowledge, structures, spatiotemporal relationships, or patterns not explicitly stored in spatiotemporal databases. As one of data mining techniques, forecasting is widely used to predict the unknown future based upon the patterns hidden in the current and past data. In order to achieve spatiotemporal forecasting, some mature analysis tools, e.g., time series and spatial statistics are extended to the spatial dimension and the temporal dimension, respectively. Drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of natural resources and water resource systems in a river basin. Early and timelines forecasting of a drought event can help to take proactive measures and set out drought mitigation strategies to alleviate the impacts of drought. Despite the widespread application of nonlinear mathematical models, comparative studies on spatiotemporal drought forecasting using different models are still a huge task for modellers. This study uses a promising approach, the Gamma Test (GT), to select the input variables and the training data length, so that the trial and error workload could be greatly reduced. The GT enables to quickly evaluate and estimate the best mean squared error that can be achieved by a smooth model on any unseen data for a given selection of inputs, prior to model construction. The GT is applied to forecast droughts using monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) timeseries at multiple timescales in several precipitation stations at Pinios river basin in Thessaly region, Greece. Several nonlinear models have been developed efficiently, with the aid of the GT, for 1-month up to 12-month ahead forecasting. Several temporal and spatial statistical indices were considered for the performance evaluation of the models. The predicted results show reasonably good agreement with the actual data for short lead times, whereas the forecasting accuracy decreases with

Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Stagge, James Howard; Tallaksen, Lena M.; De Stefano, Lucia; Vogt, Jürgen

2016-07-01

Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, meant as the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work tests the capability of commonly applied drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and combines information on past drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This hybrid approach bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact prediction in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro-region-specific sensitivities of drought indices, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for a 12-month accumulation period as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictors, with information about land use and water resources being the best vulnerability-based predictors. The application of the hybrid approach revealed strong regional and sector-specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of the best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer accumulation periods, and a combination of information on land use and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction

Global drought outlook by means of seasonal forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziese, Markus; Fröhlich, Kristina; Rustemeier, Elke; Becker, Andreas

2017-04-01

Droughts are naturally occurring phenomena which are caused by a shortage of available water due to lower than normal precipitation and/or above normal evaporation. Depending on the length of the droughts, several sectors are affected starting with agriculture, then river and ground water levels and finally socio-economic losses at the long end of the spectrum of drought persistence. Droughts are extreme events that affect much larger areas and last much longer than floods, but are less geared towards media than floods being more short-scale in persistence and impacts. Finally the slow onset of droughts make the detection and early warning of their beginning difficult and time is lost for preparatory measures. Drought indices are developed to detect and classify droughts based on (meteorological) observations and possible additional information tailored to specific user needs, e.g. in agriculture, hydrology and other sectors. Not all drought indices can be utilized for global applications as not all input parameters are available at this scale. Therefore the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) developed a drought index as combination of the Standardized Drought Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the GPCC-DI. The GPCC-DI is applied to drought monitoring and retrospective analyses on a global scale. As the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) operates a seasonal forecast system in cooperation with Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology Hamburg and University of Hamburg, these data are also used for an outlook of drought conditions by means of the GPCC-DI. The reliability of seasonal precipitation forecasts is limited, so the drought outlook is available only for forecast months two to four. Based on the GPCC-DI, DWD provides a retrospective analysis, near-real-time monitoring and outlook of drought conditions on a global scale and regular basis.

Exploring Holocene climate fluctuations registered in Bosnian stalagmites adopting a multiproxy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiarini, Veronica; Couchoud, Isabelle; Drysdale, Russell; Bajo, Petra; Milanolo, Simone; Hellstrom, John; De Waele, Jo

2016-04-01

The central Mediterranean area, a crucial region for present day and future climate change, has been characterised by contrasting patterns between northern and southern climate influences over the Holocene (e.g. Magny et al., 2012; Peyron et al., 2013). Several records from the Italian Peninsula identify this phenomenon: relatively dry conditions experienced during the first half of the Holocene are followed by an increase in moisture in the northern regions, while in the southern portion of the Peninsula the opposite trend occurs. On the Balkan side of the Adriatic Sea, this contrasting pattern is less well documented. The available studies focused on lake sediments show a more gradual and less warm early Holocene and more stable conditions during the early-mid Holocene compared to Italy (Bordon et al., 2009; Vogel et al., 2010). Several speleothems have been collected from Banja Stijena and Govještica Caves (Bosnia and Herzegovina). Preliminary U-Th dating allowed to choose the five most promising samples for further study. Stable oxygen and carbon isotopes have been analysed along the stalagmite growth axes and trace elements of one sample have been investigated. Air-mass back-trajectory analyses of present day precipitation in the area have been performed in association with GNIP rainfall isotope data analyses, with the aim of understanding the parameters driving rainfall stable oxygen isotope composition variations. Considering the impossibility of having a detailed monitoring of cave conditions due to the practical difficulties of identifying the original location of the samples collected, petrographic observations have been coupled with δ13C and δ18O in order to improve the understanding of the environmental processes recorded by these samples, as suggested in Frisia (2015) and Borsato et al. (2015). Here we will present the results of these multiproxy analyses, exploring the potential of these samples in recording regional climate fluctuations and

Late Holocene vegetation and ocean variability in the Gulf of Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Charlotte S.; Leroy, Suzanne A. G.; Collins, Philip E. F.; Lahijani, Hamid A. K.

2016-07-01

Fossil pollen and dinocyst records in marine sequences are frequently combined to reveal the response of vegetation and ocean conditions to changes in both regional and global climate. In this study we analysed pollen and dinocysts within a clearly-laminated sediment core off the Iranian coast in the Gulf of Oman, an extremely data-poor area, to reconstruct climatic change during the Late Holocene (last 1900 years). The vegetation record from southern Iran indicates a replacement of savannah by desert formations at c. 910 CE, shortly after the Islamic invasion and the subsequent collapse of the Sassanid Empire. From c. 910 to 1145 CE, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the vegetation was heavily dominated by desert formations, such as Amaranthaceae, Caryophyllaceae, Asteraceae, Centaurea and Calligonum. In parallel, in the Gulf of Oman, the presence of Impagidinium paradoxum indicates a lack of freshwater discharge into the ocean around this time. The desert taxa of the MCA were subsequently replaced by savannah formations at c. 1145 CE, comprised mainly of Poaceae and Cyperaceae, corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA), indicating generally wetter climatic conditions. A sudden increase in Spiniferites ramosus (1-63%), at c. 1440 CE suggests an increase in the strength of the SW summer monsoon, with increased freshwater discharge into the ocean at this time. Our data indicate that over the past two millennia the NW Arabian Sea region has alternated between contrasting climatic conditions, with firstly a humid phase equivalent to the cultural period of the Sassanid Empire, a significantly drier climate during the MCA and a relatively wetter climate during the LIA. The mechanisms resulting in dry conditions during the MCA in the Middle East associated with the northward shift of the ITCZ and the intensification of the Indian summer monsoon may be similar to those causing the dry conditions which dominated the Early Holocene in the Near East. Our

Toward explaining the Holocene carbon dioxide and carbon isotope records: Results from transient ocean carbon cycle-climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menviel, L.; Joos, F.

2012-03-01

The Bern3D model was applied to quantify the mechanisms of carbon cycle changes during the Holocene (last 11,000 years). We rely on scenarios from the literature to prescribe the evolution of shallow water carbonate deposition and of land carbon inventory changes over the glacial termination (18,000 to 11,000 years ago) and the Holocene and modify these scenarios within uncertainties. Model results are consistent with Holocene records of atmospheric CO2 and δ13C as well as the spatiotemporal evolution of δ13C and carbonate ion concentration in the deep sea. Deposition of shallow water carbonate, carbonate compensation of land uptake during the glacial termination, land carbon uptake and release during the Holocene, and the response of the ocean-sediment system to marine changes during the termination contribute roughly equally to the reconstructed late Holocene pCO2 rise of 20 ppmv. The 5 ppmv early Holocene pCO2 decrease reflects terrestrial uptake largely compensated by carbonate deposition and ocean sediment responses. Additional small contributions arise from Holocene changes in sea surface temperature, ocean circulation, and export productivity. The Holocene pCO2 variations result from the subtle balance of forcings and processes acting on different timescales and partly in opposite direction as well as from memory effects associated with changes occurring during the termination. Different interglacial periods with different forcing histories are thus expected to yield different pCO2 evolutions as documented by ice cores.

Identification of QTL for Early Vigor and Stay-Green Conferring Tolerance to Drought in Two Connected Advanced Backcross Populations in Tropical Maize (Zea mays L.)

PubMed Central

Trachsel, Samuel; Sun, Dapeng; SanVicente, Felix M.; Zheng, Hongjian; Atlin, Gary N.; Suarez, Edgar Antonio; Babu, Raman; Zhang, Xuecai

2016-01-01

We aimed to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL) for secondary traits related to grain yield (GY) in two BC1F2:3 backcross populations (LPSpop and DTPpop) under well-watered (4 environments; WW) and drought stressed (6; DS) conditions to facilitate breeding efforts towards drought tolerant maize. GY reached 5.6 and 5.8 t/ha under WW in the LPSpop and the DTPpop, respectively. Under DS, grain yield was reduced by 65% (LPSpop) to 59% (DTPpop) relative to WW. GY was strongly associated with the normalized vegetative index (NDVI; r ranging from 0.61 to 0.96) across environmental conditions and with an early flowering under drought stressed conditions (r ranging from -0.18 to -0.25) indicative of the importance of early vigor and drought escape for GY. Out of the 105 detected QTL, 53 were overdominant indicative of strong heterosis. For 14 out of 18 detected vigor QTL, as well as for eight flowering time QTL the trait increasing allele was derived from CML491. Collocations of early vigor QTL with QTL for stay green (bin 2.02, WW, LPSpop; 2.07, DS, DTPpop), the number of ears per plant (bins 2.02, 2.05, WW, LPSpop; 5.02, DS, LPSpop) and GY (bin 2.07, WW, DTPpop; 5.04, WW, LPSpop), reinforce the importance of the observed correlations. LOD scores for early vigor QTL in these bins ranged from 2.2 to 11.25 explaining 4.6 (additivity: +0.28) to 19.9% (additivity: +0.49) of the observed phenotypic variance. A strong flowering QTL was detected in bin 2.06 across populations and environmental conditions explaining 26–31.3% of the observed phenotypic variation (LOD: 13–17; additivity: 0.1–0.6d). Improving drought tolerance while at the same time maintaining yield potential could be achieved by combining alleles conferring early vigor from the recurrent parent with alleles advancing flowering from the donor. Additionally bin 8.06 (DTPpop) harbored a QTL for GY under WW (additivity: 0.27 t/ha) and DS (additivity: 0.58 t/ha). R2 ranged from 0 (DTPpop, WW) to 26.54% (LPSpop

Climate and Fuel Controls on North American Paleofires: Smoldering to Flaming in the Late-Glacial-Holocene Transition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, Y. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Arimoto, R.; Cao, J. J.; An, Z. S.; Sritrairat, S.; Yan, B. Z.

2016-01-01

Smoldering and flaming fires, which emit different proportions of organic (OC) and black carbon (BC, in the form of char and soot), have long been recognized in modern wildfire observations but never in a paleo-record, and little is known about their interactions with climate. Here we show that in the late glacial-early Holocene transition period, when the climate was moist, relatively high quantities of char were deposited in Linsley Pond, Connecticut, USA while soot was more abundant during the warmer and drier early Holocene interval. The highest soot mass accumulation rates (MARs) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene as fuel availability increased through the climatic transition when boreal forests were locally extirpated. These variations with time are related to the different formation pathways of char and soot, which are governed by combustion efficiency. This study provides an approach for differentiating smoldering from flaming combustion in paleo-wildfire reconstructions. Our results suggest that climate and fuel loads control the occurrence of different wildfire types and precipitation may play a key role.

Climate and Fuel Controls on North American Paleofires: Smoldering to Flaming in the Late-glacial-Holocene Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Y. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Arimoto, R.; Cao, J. J.; An, Z. S.; Sritrairat, S.; Yan, B. Z.

2016-02-01

Smoldering and flaming fires, which emit different proportions of organic (OC) and black carbon (BC, in the form of char and soot), have long been recognized in modern wildfire observations but never in a paleo-record, and little is known about their interactions with climate. Here we show that in the late glacial-early Holocene transition period, when the climate was moist, relatively high quantities of char were deposited in Linsley Pond, Connecticut, USA while soot was more abundant during the warmer and drier early Holocene interval. The highest soot mass accumulation rates (MARs) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene as fuel availability increased through the climatic transition when boreal forests were locally extirpated. These variations with time are related to the different formation pathways of char and soot, which are governed by combustion efficiency. This study provides an approach for differentiating smoldering from flaming combustion in paleo-wildfire reconstructions. Our results suggest that climate and fuel loads control the occurrence of different wildfire types and precipitation may play a key role.

Climate and Fuel Controls on North American Paleofires: Smoldering to Flaming in the Late-glacial-Holocene Transition.

PubMed

Han, Y M; Peteet, D M; Arimoto, R; Cao, J J; An, Z S; Sritrairat, S; Yan, B Z

2016-02-10

Smoldering and flaming fires, which emit different proportions of organic (OC) and black carbon (BC, in the form of char and soot), have long been recognized in modern wildfire observations but never in a paleo-record, and little is known about their interactions with climate. Here we show that in the late glacial-early Holocene transition period, when the climate was moist, relatively high quantities of char were deposited in Linsley Pond, Connecticut, USA while soot was more abundant during the warmer and drier early Holocene interval. The highest soot mass accumulation rates (MARs) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene as fuel availability increased through the climatic transition when boreal forests were locally extirpated. These variations with time are related to the different formation pathways of char and soot, which are governed by combustion efficiency. This study provides an approach for differentiating smoldering from flaming combustion in paleo-wildfire reconstructions. Our results suggest that climate and fuel loads control the occurrence of different wildfire types and precipitation may play a key role.

Inception of a global atlas of Holocene sea levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Nicole; Rovere, Alessio; Engelhart, Simon; Horton, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Determining the rates, mechanisms and geographic variability of sea-level change is a priority science question for the next decade of ocean research. To address these research priorities, the HOLocene SEA-level variability (HOLSEA) working group is developing the first standardized global synthesis of Holocene relative sea-level data to: (1) estimate the magnitudes and rates of global mean sea-level change during the Holocene; and (2) identify trends in spatial variability and decipher the processes responsible for geographic differences in relative sea-level change. Here we present the preliminary efforts of the working group to compile the database, which includes sea-level index points and limiting data from a range of different indicators across seven continents from the Last Glacial Maximum to present. We follow a standard protocol that incorporates full consideration of vertical and temporal uncertainty for each sea-level index point, including uncertainties associated with the relationship of each indicator to past sea-level and the methods used to date each indicator. We describe the composition of the global database, identify gaps in data availability, and highlight our effort to create an online platform to access the data. These data will be made available in a special issue of Quaternary Science Reviews and archived on NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in early 2018. We also invite researchers who collect or model Holocene sea-level data to participate. Long-term, this effort will enhance predictions of 21st century sea-level rise, and provide a vital contribution to the assessment of natural hazards with respect to sea-level rise and coastal response.

Evidence for insolation and Pacific forcing of late glacial through Holocene climate in the Central Mojave Desert (Silver Lake, CA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirby, Matthew E.; Knell, Edward J.; Anderson, William T.; Lachniet, Matthew S.; Palermo, Jennifer; Eeg, Holly; Lucero, Ricardo; Murrieta, Rosa; Arevalo, Andrea; Silveira, Emily; Hiner, Christine A.

2015-09-01

Silver Lake is the modern terminal playa of the Mojave River in southern California (USA). As a result, it is well located to record both influences from the winter precipitation dominated San Bernardino Mountains - the source of the Mojave River - and from the late summer to early fall North American monsoon at Silver Lake. Here, we present various physical, chemical and biological data from a new radiocarbon-dated, 8.2 m sediment core taken from Silver Lake that spans modern through 14.8 cal ka BP. Texturally, the core varies between sandy clay, clayey sand, and sand-silt-clay, often with abrupt sedimentological transitions. These grain-size changes are used to divide the core into six lake status intervals over the past 14.8 cal ka BP. Notable intervals include a dry Younger Dryas chronozone, a wet early Holocene terminating 7.8 - 7.4 cal ka BP, a distinct mid-Holocene arid interval, and a late Holocene return to ephemeral lake conditions. A comparison to potential climatic forcings implicates a combination of changing summer - winter insolation and tropical and N Pacific sea-surface temperature dynamics as the primary drivers of Holocene climate in the central Mojave Desert.

Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters-Lidard, Christa; Eylander, John B.; Koster, Randall; Narapusetty, Balachandrudu; Kumar, Sujay; Rodell, Matt; Bolten, John; Mocko, David; Walker, Gregory; Arsenault, Kristi;

The evolution of Saharan dust input in Lanzarote (Canary Islands): Lower Holocene triggering by human activity in the northwest Sahara?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Suchodoletz, H.; Oberhänsli, H.; Faust, D.; Zöller, L.; Hambach, U.; Fuchs, M.

2009-04-01

A Holocene increase of Saharan dust input to the area of the Canary islands is accompanied by a strong coarsening of this material during the Early Holocene as recorded in loess-like sediments deposited on Lanzarote. Whereas natural causes can be ruled out for the coarsening that is exceptional during the period of the last 180 ka, it is assumed that anthropogenic activity strongly mobilized dust in an area on the pathway of dust prior to its arrival in Lanzarote comprising parts of Western Sahara and northern Mauritania. Although scarce archaeological data from the coastal area of that region do not point to strong anthropogenic activity during the Early Holocene yet, a high density of unexplored archaeological remains reported from the coastal hinterlands does not exclude this hypothesis. Thus, the results of this study highlight the need of further archaeological investigations in that Saharan region.

Major hydrologic shifts in northwest Florida during the Holocene from a lacustrine sediment record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodysill, J. R.; Donnelly, J. P.

2011-12-01

Recent climate extremes have threatened water resource availability and destroyed homes and infrastructure along the heavily populated northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Water resources in Northwest Florida, in particular, suffer from declining aquifer levels and salt water intrusion despite the presence of extensive river and aquifer systems. Intensive water resource management has been necessary to meet water supply demands during recent droughts. Advanced preparedness for abrupt climate events requires the ability to anticipate when hydrologic extremes are likely to occur; however, the long-term history of hydrologic extremes is not well known, and the instrumental record is too short to resolve longer-term hydrologic variability. Reconstructing the pre-instrumental hydrologic history is essential to building our understanding of the timing of and the driving forces behind wet and dry extremes. Here we present a new record of paleohydrology in northwest Florida based upon variations in sediment lithology and geochemistry from Rattlesnake Lake. We see evidence for both brief and long-lived changes in the lake environment during the Holocene. We compare our record to published pollen-based reconstructions of paleohydrology to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of paleohydrologic extremes across the northern Gulf of Mexico region during the Holocene.

Lacustrine records of Holocene flood pulse dynamics in the Upper Paraguay River watershed (Pantanal wetlands, Brazil)

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGlue, Michael M.; Silva, Aquinaldo; Zani, Hiran; Corradini, Fabricio A.; Parolin, Mauro; Abel, Erin J.; Cohen, Andrew S.; Assine, Mario L.; Ellis, Geoffrey S.; Trees, Mark A.; Kuerten, Sidney; Gradella, Frederico dos Santos; Rasbold, Giliane Gessica

2012-01-01

The Pantanal is the world's largest tropical wetland and a biodiversity hotspot, yet its response to Quaternary environmental change is unclear. To address this problem, sediment cores from shallow lakes connected to the UpperParaguayRiver (PR) were analyzed and radiocarbon dated to track changes in sedimentary environments. Stratal relations, detrital particle size, multiple biogeochemical indicators, and sponge spicules suggest fluctuating lake-level lowstand conditions between ~ 11,000 and 5300 cal yr BP, punctuated by sporadic and in some cases erosive flood flows. A hiatus has been recorded from ~ 5300 to 2600 cal yr BP, spurred by confinement of the PR within its channel during an episode of profound regional drought. Sustained PR flooding caused a transgression after ~ 2600 cal yr BP, with lake-level highstand conditions appearing during the Little Ice Age. Holocene PR floodpulsedynamics are best explained by variability in effective precipitation, likely driven by insolation and tropical sea-surface temperature gradients. Our results provide novel support for hypotheses on: (1) stratigraphic discontinuity of floodplain sedimentary archives; (2) late Holocene methane flux from Southern Hemisphere wetlands; and (3) pre-colonial indigenous ceramics traditions in western Brazil.

Land-atmosphere interaction and disaster-causing process of drought in northern China: observation and experiment (DroughtPEX_China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yaohui

2017-04-01

aims to establish a complete observation &experiment system for droughts particularly over the arid and semi-arid regions in northern China. Relying on the existing meteorological observation network and experimental bases, the DroughtPEX_China implemented interdisciplinary, comprehensive and systemic drought-scientific experiment including the routine observation, intensive and special observation, and the artificially field control test for the drought forming and reducing. Such large observation &experiment will promote a large step or theoretical breakthrough on the knowledge of the complex dynamic process for the formation and development of drought disasters, the mechanism of the water-energy cycle in the atmosphere-soil-vegetation on multi-scales, and the interrelationship in the atmosphere, agriculture and hydrological droughts. The ultimate purpose of DroughtPEX_China is to make great progress on the technology of accurate drought monitoring, risk assessment and early warning. This paper will introduce the Drought PEX_China with the scientific goal, experiment design and layout, preliminary results, information sharing, and its promoting role on international cooperation of drought scientific research. Key words: Disaster-causing process of drought; Observation & experiment; Northern China

Holocene reef accretion: southwest Molokai, Hawaii, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Engels, Mary S.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Field, Michael E.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Grossman, Eric E.; Rooney, John J.B.; Conger, Christopher L.; Glenn, Craig

2004-01-01

Two reef systems off south Molokai, Hale O Lono and Hikauhi (separated by only 10 km), show strong and fundamental differences in modern ecosystem structure and Holocene accretion history that reflect the influence of wave-induced near-bed shear stresses on reef development in Hawaii. Both sites are exposed to similar impacts from south, Kona, and trade-wind swell. However, the Hale O Lono site is exposed to north swell and the Hikuahi site is not. As a result, the reef at Hale O Lono records no late Holocene net accretion while the reef at Hikauhi records consistent and robust accretion over late Holocene time. Analysis and dating of 24 cores from Hale O Lono and Hikauhi reveal the presence of five major lithofacies that reflect paleo-environmental conditions. In order of decreasing depositional energy they are: (1) coral-algal bindstone; (2) mixed skeletal rudstone; (3) massive coral framestone; (4) unconsolidated floatstone; and (5) branching coral framestone-bafflestone. At Hale O Lono, 10 cores document a backstepping reef ranging from ∼ 8,100 cal yr BP (offshore) to ∼ 4,800 cal yr BP (nearshore). A depauperate community of modern coral diminishes shoreward and seaward of ∼ 15 m depth due to wave energy, disrupted recruitment activities, and physical abrasion. Evidence suggests a change from conditions conducive to accretion during the early Holocene to conditions detrimental to accretion in the late Holocene. Reef structure at Hikauhi, reconstructed from 14 cores, reveals a thick, rapidly accreting and young reef (maximum age ∼ 900 cal yr BP). Living coral cover on this reef increases seaward with distance from the reef crest but terminates at a depth of ∼ 20 m where the reef ends in a large sand field. The primary limitation on vertical reef growth is accommodation space under wave base, not recruitment activities or energy conditions. Interpretations of cored lithofacies suggest that modern reef growth on the southwest corner of Molokai, and by

Estuarine development and early Holocene transgression across an aeolianite substrate, Caesarea, central Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goff, John A.; Austin, James A.; Goodman-Tchernov, Beverly N.

2018-04-01

Estuaries are important features on the coastal landscape due to their potential for rich, diverse, and abundant resources. The modern coast of the southeast Mediterranean is largely devoid of estuaries except in rare circumstances where ample sands are delivered to the shore, such as east of the Nile Delta. Whether or not today's condition is reflective of that present during lower sea-levels is greatly speculative in part due to a dearth of high-resolution sub-surface mapping in the shallower (< 45 m) continental shelf. We report here on a multibeam bathymetry and near-surface seismic stratigraphy survey offshore of Caesarea, along the central Israeli coast; within which we find evidence of preserved estuarine sediments in water depths 45-10 mbsl, both within paleo-channels of the Crocodile and Hadera rivers, and more broadly across the shelf. These water depths correspond to early Holocene dates ( 10.5-7.5 ka) which, based on global sea-level curves, was a period of rapid ( 1-1.7 cm/yr) sea-level rise. Now-submerged aeolianite ridges (locally referred to as 'kurkar'), cemented aeolian deposits formed during pre-Last-Glacial-Maximum (LGM) seaward advance (regression) of the coastline, likely provided some offshore barrier for estuarine development. These were insufficient, however, to account for all the estuarine deposition interpreted, leading us to hypothesize that sand-constructed barrier islands were also present as sea-level rose during the Holocene. This supply of sand, clearly greater than what is evident today, could have originated from sea-level rise phase eroding Nile Delta sediments transported northward by littoral currents, or from increased output from local rivers during wetter climatic conditions. We also observe a transition from linear, shore-parallel aeolianite ridge morphology features on land and in shallow water, to nested, arcuate features below 30 mbsl. Whereas the linear ridges are thought to be coastal foredune remnants abandoned by

Application of Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System to enhance drought monitoring and forecasting in Lower Mekong region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasinghe, S.; Dutta, R.; Basnayake, S. B.; Granger, S. L.; Andreadis, K. M.; Das, N.; Markert, K. N.; Cutter, P. G.; Towashiraporn, P.; Anderson, E.

2017-12-01

The Lower Mekong Region has been experiencing frequent and prolonged droughts resulting in severe damage to agricultural production leading to food insecurity and impacts on livelihoods of the farming communities. Climate variability further complicates the situation by making drought harder to forecast. The Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information System (RDCYIS), developed by SERVIR-Mekong, helps decision makers to take effective measures through monitoring, analyzing and forecasting of drought conditions and providing early warnings to farmers to make adjustments to cropping calendars. The RDCYIS is built on regionally calibrated Regional Hydrologic Extreme Assessment System (RHEAS) framework that integrates the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) models, allowing both nowcast and forecast of drought. The RHEAS allows ingestion of numerus freely available earth observation and ground observation data to generate and customize drought related indices, variables and crop yield information for better decision making. The Lower Mekong region has experienced severe drought in 2016 encompassing the region's worst drought in 90 years. This paper presents the simulation of the 2016 drought event using RDCYIS based on its hindcast and forecast capabilities. The regionally calibrated RDCYIS can help capture salient features of drought through a variety of drought indices, soil variables, energy balance variables and water balance variables. The RDCYIS is capable of assimilating soil moisture data from different satellite products and perform ensemble runs to further reduce the uncertainty of it outputs. The calibrated results have correlation coefficient around 0.73 and NSE between 0.4-0.5. Based on the acceptable results of the retrospective runs, the system has the potential to generate reliable drought monitoring and forecasting information to improve decision-makings at operational, technological and

7300 years of vegetation history and climate for NW Malta: a Holocene perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gambin, B.; Andrieu-Ponel, V.; Médail, F.; Marriner, N.; Peyron, O.; Montade, V.; Gambin, T.; Morhange, C.; Belkacem, D.; Djamali, M.

2015-09-01

This paper investigates the Holocene vegetation dynamics for Burmarrad in north-west Malta and provides a pollen-based quantitative palaeoclimatic reconstruction for this centrally located Mediterranean archipelago. The pollen record from this site provides new insight into the vegetation changes from 7280 to 1730 cal BP which correspond well with other regional records. The climate reconstruction for the area also provides strong correlation with southern (below 40° N) Mediterranean sites. Our interpretation suggests an initially open landscape during the early Neolithic, surrounding a large palaeobay, developing into a dense Pistacia scrubland ca. 6700 cal BP. From about 4450 cal BP the landscape once again becomes open, coinciding with the start of the Bronze Age on the archipelago. This period is concurrent with increased climatic instability (between 4500 and 3700 cal BP) which is followed by a gradual decrease in summer moisture availability in the late Holocene. During the early Roman occupation period (1972 to 1730 cal BP) the landscape remains generally open with a moderate increase in Olea. This increase, corresponds to archaeological evidence for olive oil production in the area, along with increases in cultivated crop taxa and associated ruderal species, as well as a rise in fire events. The Maltese archipelago provides important insight into vegetation, human impacts and climatic changes in an island context during the Holocene.

7300 years of vegetation history and climate for NW Malta: a Holocene perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gambin, B.; Andrieu-Ponel, V.; Médail, F.; Marriner, N.; Peyron, O.; Montade, V.; Gambin, T.; Morhange, C.; Belkacem, D.; Djamali, M.

2016-02-01

This paper investigates the Holocene vegetation dynamics for Burmarrad in Northwest Malta and provides a pollen-based quantitative palaeoclimatic reconstruction for this centrally located Mediterranean archipelago. The pollen record from this site provides new insight into the vegetation changes from 7280 to 1730 cal BP which correspond well with other regional records. The climate reconstruction for the area also provides strong correlation with southern (below 40° N) Mediterranean sites. Our interpretation suggests an initially open landscape during the early Neolithic, surrounding a large palaeobay, developing into a dense Pistacia scrubland ca. 6700 cal BP. From about 4450 cal BP the landscape once again becomes open, coinciding with the start of the Bronze Age on the archipelago. This period is concurrent with increased climatic instability (between 4500 and 3700 cal BP) which is followed by a gradual decrease in summer moisture availability in the late Holocene. During the early Roman occupation period (1972-1730 cal BP) the landscape remains generally open with a moderate increase in Olea. This increase corresponds to archaeological evidence for olive oil production in the area, along with increases in cultivated crop taxa and associated ruderal species, as well as a rise in fire events. The Maltese archipelago provides important insight into vegetation, human impacts, and climatic changes in an island context during the Holocene.

An extended multivariate framework for drought monitoring in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Real-Rangel, Roberto; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Breña-Naranjo, Agustín; Alcocer-Yamanaka, Víctor

2017-04-01

Around the world, monitoring natural hazards, such as droughts, represents a critical task in risk assessment and management plans. A reliable drought monitoring system allows to identify regions affected by these phenomena so that early response measures can be implemented. In Mexico, this activity is performed using Mexico's Drought Monitor, which is based on a similar methodology as the United States Drought Monitor and the North American Drought Monitor. The main feature of these monitoring systems is the combination of ground-based and remote sensing observations that is ultimately validated by local experts. However, in Mexico in situ records of variables such as precipitation and streamflow are often scarce, or even null, in many regions of the country. Another issue that adds uncertainty in drought monitoring is the arbitrary weight given to each analyzed variable. This study aims at providing an operational framework for drought monitoring in Mexico, based on univariate and multivariate nonparametric standardized indexes proposed in recent studies. Furthermore, the framework has been extended by taking into account the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) for the drought severity assessment. The analyzed variables used for computing the drought indexes are mainly derived from remote sensing (MODIS) and land surface models datasets (NASA MERRA-2). A qualitative evaluation of the results shows that the indexes used are capable of adequately describes the intensity and spatial distribution of past drought documented events.

A general framework for multivariate multi-index drought prediction based on Multivariate Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (MESP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.

2016-08-01

Drought is among the costliest natural hazards worldwide and extreme drought events in recent years have caused huge losses to various sectors. Drought prediction is therefore critically important for providing early warning information to aid decision making to cope with drought. Due to the complicated nature of drought, it has been recognized that the univariate drought indicator may not be sufficient for drought characterization and hence multivariate drought indices have been developed for drought monitoring. Alongside the substantial effort in drought monitoring with multivariate drought indices, it is of equal importance to develop a drought prediction method with multivariate drought indices to integrate drought information from various sources. This study proposes a general framework for multivariate multi-index drought prediction that is capable of integrating complementary prediction skills from multiple drought indices. The Multivariate Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (MESP) is employed to sample from historical records for obtaining statistical prediction of multiple variables, which is then used as inputs to achieve multivariate prediction. The framework is illustrated with a linearly combined drought index (LDI), which is a commonly used multivariate drought index, based on climate division data in California and New York in the United States with different seasonality of precipitation. The predictive skill of LDI (represented with persistence) is assessed by comparison with the univariate drought index and results show that the LDI prediction skill is less affected by seasonality than the meteorological drought prediction based on SPI. Prediction results from the case study show that the proposed multivariate drought prediction outperforms the persistence prediction, implying a satisfactory performance of multivariate drought prediction. The proposed method would be useful for drought prediction to integrate drought information from various sources

Late Holocene eolian activity in the mineralogically mature Nebraska Sand Hills

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muhs, D.R.; Stafford, Thomas W.; Swinehart, J.B.; Cowherd, S.D.; Mahan, S.A.; Bush, C.A.; Madole, R.F.; Maat, P.B.

1997-01-01

The age of sand dunes in the Nebraska Sand Hills has been controversial, with some investigators suggesting a full-glacial age and others suggesting that they were last active in the late Holocene. New accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon ages of unaltered bison bones and organic-rich sediments suggest that eolian sand deposition occurred at least twice in the past 3000 14C yr B.P. in three widely separated localities and as many as three times in the past 800 14C yr at three other localities. These late Holocene episodes of eolian activity are probably the result of droughts more intense than the 1930s "Dust Bowl" period, based on independent Great Plains climate records from lake sediments and tree rings. However, new geochemical data indicate that the Nebraska Sand Hills are mineralogically mature. Eolian sands in Nebraska have lower K-feldspar (and K2O, Rb, and Ba) contents than most possible source sediments and lower K-feldspar contents than dunes of similar age in Colorado. The most likely explanation for mineralogical maturity is reduction of sand-sized K-feldspar to silt-sized particles via ballistic impacts due to strong winds over many cycles of eolian activity. Therefore, dunes of the Nebraska Sand Hills must have had a long history, probably extending over more than one glacial-interglacial cycle, and the potential for reactivation is high, with or without a future greenhouse warming. ?? 1997 University of Washington.

Remotely Sensed Hydrometeorological and Agrometeorological Drought Risk Identification for Sustainable Agriculture.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, Nicolas R.; Blanta, Anna; Spyropoulos, Nicos

2013-04-01

Drought is considered as one of the major environmental hazards with significant impacts to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper addresses drought as a hazard within the risk management framework. Indeed, hazards may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Besides, risk management consists of risk assessment and feedback of the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. In order to ensure sustainability in agricultural production a better understanding of the natural disasters, in particular droughts, that impact agriculture is essential. Droughts may result in environmental degradation of an area, which is one of the factors contributing to the vulnerability of agriculture, because it directly magnifies the risk of natural disasters. This paper deals with drought risk identification, which involves hazard quantification, event monitoring including early warning systems and statistical inference. For drought quantification the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) combined with Vegetation Health Index (VHI) is employed. RDI is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, and in particular precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, which has been recently modified to incorporate monthly satellite (NOAA/AVHAA) data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). VHI is based on NDVI. The study area is Thessaly in central Greece, which is one of the major agricultural areas of the country occasionally facing droughts. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed RID and VHI images and several drought features are extracted such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of the above mentioned features. In particular, two second-order polynomials

Suicide and drought in New South Wales, Australia, 1970–2007

PubMed Central

Hanigan, Ivan C.; Butler, Colin D.; Kokic, Philip N.; Hutchinson, Michael F.

2012-01-01

There is concern in Australia that droughts substantially increase the incidence of suicide in rural populations, particularly among male farmers and their families. We investigated this possibility for the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 1970 and 2007, analyzing data on suicides with a previously established climatic drought index. Using a generalized additive model that controlled for season, region, and long-term suicide trends, we found an increased relative risk of suicide of 15% (95% confidence interval, 8%–22%) for rural males aged 30–49 y when the drought index rose from the first quartile to the third quartile. In contrast, the risk of suicide for rural females aged >30 y declined with increased values of the drought index. We also observed an increased risk of suicide in spring and early summer. In addition there was a smaller association during unusually warm months at any time of year. The spring suicide increase is well documented in nontropical locations, although its cause is unknown. The possible increased risk of suicide during drought in rural Australia warrants public health focus and concern, as does the annual, predictable increase seen each spring and early summer. Suicide is a complex phenomenon with many interacting social, environmental, and biological causal factors. The relationship between drought and suicide is best understood using a holistic framework. Climate change projections suggest increased frequency and severity of droughts in NSW, accompanied and exacerbated by rising temperatures. Elucidating the relationships between drought and mental health will help facilitate adaptation to climate change. PMID:22891347

Origin and dynamics of the northern South American coastal savanna belt during the Holocene - the role of climate, sea-level, fire and humans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizadeh, Kamaleddin; Cohen, Marcelo; Behling, Hermann

2015-08-01

Presence of a coastal savanna belt expanding from British Guiana to northeastern Brazil cannot be explained by present-day climate. Using pollen and charcoal analyses on an 11.6 k old sediment core from a coastal depression in the savanna belt near the mouth of the Amazon River we investigated the paleoenvironmental history to shed light on this question. Results indicate that small areas of savanna accompanied by a forest type composed primarily by the genus Micropholis (Sapotaceae) that has no modern analog existed at the beginning of the Holocene. After 11,200 cal yr BP, savanna accompanied by few trees replaced the forest. In depressions swamp forest developed and by ca 10,000 cal yr BP replaced by Mauritia swamps. Between 8500 and 5600 cal yr BP gallery forest (composed mainly of Euphorbiaceae) and swamp forest succeeded the treeless savanna. The modern vegetation with alternating gallery forest and savanna developed after 5600 cal yr BP. We suggest that the early Holocene no-analog forest is a relict of previously more extensive forest under cooler and moister Lateglacial conditions. The early Holocene savanna expansion indicates a drier phase probably related to the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) towards its northernmost position. The mid-Holocene forest expansion is probably a result of the combined influence of equatorwards shift of ITCZ joining the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). The ecosystem variability during the last 5600 cal yr BP, formed perhaps under influence of intensified ENSO condition. High charcoal concentrations, especially during the early Holocene, indicate that natural and/or anthropogenic fires may have maintained the savanna. However, our results propose that climate change is the main driving factor for the formation of the coastal savanna in this region. Our results also show that the early Holocene sea level rise established mangroves near the study site until 7500 cal yr BP and promoted swamp formation in

Drought Monitoring and Forecasting: Experiences from the US and Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, Justin; Chaney, Nate; Yuan, Xing; Wood, Eric

2013-04-01

Drought has important but very different consequences regionally due to differences in vulnerability. These differences derive from variations in exposure related to climate variability and change, sensitivity of local populations, and coping capacity at all levels. Managing the risk of drought impacts relies on a variety of measures to reduce vulnerability that includes forewarning of drought development through early-warning systems. Existing systems rely on a variety of observing systems from satellites to local observers, modeling tools, and data dissemination methods. They range from sophisticated state-of-the-art systems to simple ground reports. In some regions, systems are virtually non-existent due to limited national capacity. This talk describes our experiences in developing and implementing drought monitoring and seasonal forecast systems in the US and sub-Saharan Africa as contrasting examples of the scientific challenges and user needs in developing early warning systems. In particular, early warning can help improve livelihoods based on subsistence farming in sub-Saharan Africa; whist reduction of economic impacts is generally foremost in the US. For the US, our national drought monitoring and seasonal forecast system has been operational for over 8 years and provides near real-time updates on hydrological states at ~12km resolution and hydrological forecasts out to 9 months. Output from the system contributes to national assessments such as from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the US National Drought Monitor (USDM). For sub-Saharan Africa, our experimental drought monitoring system was developed as a translation of the US system but presents generally greater challenges due to, for example, lack of ground data and unique user needs. The system provides near real-time updates based on hydrological modeling and satellite based precipitation estimates, and has recently been augmented by a seasonal forecast component. We discuss the

Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Kumar, A.; Leung, R.; Mariotti, A.; Mo, K.; Schubert, S.; Seager, R.

2013-01-01

Central Great Plains precipitation deficits during May-August 2012 were the most severe since at least 1895, eclipsing the Dust Bowl summers of 1934 and 1936. Drought developed suddenly in May, following near-normal precipitation during winter and early spring. Its proximate causes were a reduction in atmospheric moisture transport into the Great Plains from the Gulf of Mexico. Processes that generally provide air mass lift and condensation were mostly absent, including a lack of frontal cyclones in late spring followed by suppressed deep convection in summer owing to large-scale subsidence and atmospheric stabilization. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the summer 2012 central Great Plains drought development, which therefore arrived without early warning. Climate simulations and empirical analysis suggest that ocean surface temperatures together with changes in greenhouse gases did not induce a substantial reduction in summertime precipitation over the central Great Plains during 2012. Yet, diagnosis of the retrospective climate simulations also reveals a regime shift toward warmer and drier summertime Great Plains conditions during the recent decade, most probably due to natural decadal variability. As a consequence, the probability for severe summer Great Plains drought may have increased in the last decade compared to the 1980s and 1990s, and the so-called tail-risk for severe drought may have been heightened in summer 2012. Such an extreme drought event was nonetheless still found to be a rare occurrence within the spread of 2012 climate model simulations. Implications of this study's findings for U.S. seasonal drought forecasting are discussed.

The roles of fire in Holocene ecosystem changes of West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupont, L. M.; Schefuß, E.

2018-01-01

The climate changes associated with the Holocene wet phase in the Sahara, the African Humid Period, are subject to ongoing debate discussing interactions between climate and vegetation and possible feedbacks between vegetation, albedo, desertification, and dust. However, very little attention has been given to the role of fire in shaping the land cover, although it is known that fires are important in the formation and consolidation of the African savanna. To fill this gap, we investigated the interaction between precipitation changes, vegetation shifts, and fire occurrence in West Africa by combining stable isotope measurements on plant waxes with pollen and micro-charcoal counts of marine sediments retrieved offshore of Cape Blanc. Our study focuses on the roles of fire at the dry limit of savanna during the Holocene evolution of precipitation changes indicating that the impact of fire during a relative wet climate differs from that during aridification. During the humid early Holocene, increased savanna extension and diversification ran parallel to increased fire occurrence. In contrast, after aridification of northern Africa started at the end of the African Humid Period, a maximum in fire occurrence correlated with a deterioration of the vegetation promoting desertification.

Climate variability during the deglaciation and Holocene in a high-altitude alpine lake deduced from the sedimentary record from Laguna Seca, Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camuera, Jon; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; José Ramos-Román, María; García-Alix, Antonio; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco; Anderson, R. Scott

2017-04-01

High-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF), magnetic susceptibility (MS), color and lithological analyses have been carried out on a 3.6 m-long sediment core from Laguna Seca, a high-elevation dry lake from Sierra Nevada mountain range, southern Spain. This is the longest sedimentary record retrieved from an alpine lake in southern Iberian Peninsula. Besides, alpine lakes are very sensitive environments to climate changes and previous studies showed that Laguna Seca could provide an excellent record to identify millennial-scale climate variations during deglaciation and the whole Holocene. XRF analyses, in particular high calcium and low K/Ca ratios, show aridity phases, very well represented during Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Younger Dryas (YD). Arid events are also shown at ca. 8.1 ka BP, ca. 4.4 ka BP and the latest Holocene. On the other hand, negative values in calcium and positive values in K/Ca appear in the Bølling-Allerød (BA) and during the early Holocene until ca. 6 ka BP, indicating more humidity and higher run-off. A progressive aridification trend is also observed in the Holocene, changing from more humid conditions during the early Holocene to more aridity during the late Holocene.

The Wasatch fault zone, utah-segmentation and history of Holocene earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Machette, M.N.; Personius, S.F.; Nelson, A.R.; Schwartz, D.P.; Lund, W.R.

1991-01-01

The Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) forms the eastern boundary of the Basin and Range province and is the longest continuous, active normal fault (343 km) in the United States. It underlies an urban corridor of 1.6 million people (80% of Utah's population) representing the largest earthquake risk in the interior of the western United States. We have used paleoseismological data to identify 10 discrete segments of the WFZ. Five are active, medial segments with Holocene slip rates of 1-2 mm a-1, recurrence intervals of 2000-4000 years and average lengths of about 50 km. Five are less active, distal segments with mostly pre-Holocene surface ruptures, late Quaternary slip rates of 6.5 have occurred since 1860. Although the time scale of the clustering is different-130 years vs 1100 years-we consider the central Nevada-eastern California Seismic Belt to be a historic analog for movement on the WFZ during the past 1500 years. We have found no evidence that surface-rupturing events occurred on the WFZ during the past 400 years, a time period which is twice the average intracluster recurrence interval and equal to the average Holocene recurrence interval. In particular, the Brigham City segment (the northernmost medial segment) has not ruptured in the past 3600 years-a period that is about three times longer than this segment's average recurrence interval during the early and middle Holocene. Although the WFZ's seismological record is one of relative quiescence, a comparison with other historic surface-rupturing earthquakes in the region suggests that earthquakes having moment magnitudes of 7.1-7.4 (or surface-wave magnitudes of 7.5-7.7)-each associated with tens of kilometers of surface rupture and several meters of normal dip slip-have occurred about every four centuries during the Holocene and should be expected in the future. ?? 1991.

Wetlands sediment record from the upper Yarlung Tsangpo valley, southwest Tibetan Plateau, reveals mid-Holocene Epipaleolithic human occupation coincident with increased early and mid-Holocene wetness driven by enhanced Indian Monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudson, A. M.; Olsen, J. W.; Quade, J.; Lei, G.; Huth, T.; Zhang, H.; Perreault, C.

2016-12-01

The headwaters of the Yarlung Tsangpo river valley, located in the southwestern Tibetan Plateau, are characterized by a cold and dry climate, but contain abundant river-marginal wetlands environments, which fluctuate in extent in response to changes in local water table elevation. This region receives 80% of precipitation from the Indian Monsoon, which forms the dominant control on moisture availability, and hence wetlands extent. Our paleowetlands record, based on 14C dating of organic-rich paleowetlands deposits, provides a novel record of Holocene monsoon intensity. The wetlands deposits consist of four sedimentary units that indicate decreasing wetlands extent and monsoon intensity since 10.4 ka BP. Wet conditions occurred at ˜10.4 ka BP, ˜9.6 ka BP and ˜7.9-4.8 ka BP, with similar-to-modern conditions from ˜4.6-2.0 ka BP, and drier-than-modern conditions from ˜2.0 ka BP to present. Wetland changes correlate with monsoon intensity changes identified in nearby records, with weak monsoon intervals corresponding to desiccation and erosion of wetlands deposits. Dating of in situ ceramic and microlithic artifacts in wetlands sediments at multiple sites indicates Epipaleolithic human occupation of the YT valley after 6.6 ka BP. Artifact typology study reveals a similar microlithic technology was employed across the high plateau interior, but XRF obsidian provenance reveals separate northeast and southwest lithic conveyance zones. This indicates widespread colonization of the high, arid Tibetan Plateau interior by one or more highly mobile human populations during the early and mid-Holocene, coincident with favorable warm, wet climate conditions.

Seasonal Transitions and the Westerly Jet in the Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, J. C. H.; Kong, W.; Swenson, L. M.

2016-12-01

The Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) evolution was previously characterized as a trend towards weaker monsoon intensity paced by orbital insolation. We argue that this evolution is more accurately characterized as changes in the transition timing and duration of the EASM seasonal stages (Spring, pre Mei-Yu, Mei-Yu, Midsummer), and tied to the north-south displacement of the westerlies relative to Tibet. To this end, we employ atmospheric general circulation model time-slice simulations across the Holocene, and objectively identify the transition timing and duration of the EASM seasonal stages. Compared to the late Holocene, we find an earlier onset of Mei-Yu and an earlier transition from Mei-Yu to Summer in the early-mid Holocene, resulting in a shortened Mei-Yu and prolonged Summer stage. These changes are accompanied by an earlier northward positioning of the westerlies relative to Tibet. Our hypothesis provides a more satisfactory explanation for two key observations of Holocene East Asian climate: the `asynchronous Holocene optimum', and changes to East Asian dustiness. Our results highlight a key difference in the way that the East Asian monsoon dynamically responds to precessional insolation changes compared to the other monsoons. For other monsoon systems, changes to the land-ocean contrast drive changes to monsoon intensity. While this also occurs for the East Asian monsoon, more importantly changes to the meridional position of the westerlies relative to the Tibetan Plateau determine the timing of seasonal transitions; a northward shift triggers earlier seasonal rainfall transitions and in particular a shorter Mei-Yu and longer Midsummer stage. By similar reasoning, changes to obliquity also strongly affect East Asian summer monsoon seasonality, with a larger tilt resulting in earlier northward shift of the westerlies.

Holocene climatic change, aeolian sedimentation and the nomadic Anthropocene in Eastern Tibet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmkuhl, F.; Schlütz, F.

2009-04-01

Geomorphological and palynological studies from the Nianbaoyeze Shan in Eastern Tibet provides detailed information on the Holocene landscape and vegetation development of a mountain system located on the westernmost boundary of the modern forest belt. In addition, detailed sedimentological work was done on a section south of the Anyemachin Shan further west. Our study provides detailed information on the late glacial landscape and vegetation development of eastern Tibet. Based on a suite of geomorphological and palynological proxy data from the Nianbaoyeze Shan on the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau (33°N/101°E, 3300-4500 m asl) we reconstruct recent landscape dynamics as a function of climate change and the longevity of human influence. Study results constrain several major phases of aeolian sedimentation between 50 - 15 ka and various glacier advances during the Late Pleistocene, the Holocene and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Increased aeolian deposition was primarily associated with periods of more extensive glacial ice extent. Fluvial and alluvial sediment pulses also document an increase of erosion starting at about 4000 cal yr B.P. coinciding with cooling (Neoglacial) and a growing anthropo-zoogenic influence. Evidence for periglacial mass movements indicate that the late Holocene cooling started at around 2000 cal yr B.P. demonstrating increased surface activity under the combined effects of human influence and climate deterioration (LIA). In a section south of the Anyemachin about 150 km further west Holocene silt and paleosols development match to these results but showing higher Holocene aeolian activity. The Holocene vegetation history started with an open landscape dominated by pioneer shrubs along braided rivers (<10,600 - 9800 cal yr B.P.), followed by the spreading of conifers (Picea, Juniperus, Abies) and Betula-trees accompanied by a successive closing of the vegetation cover by Poaceae, Cyperaceae and herbs (9800 - 8300 cal yr B.P.). First

Drought is Coming: Monitoring Vegetation Response to Water Scarcity through Variable Chlorophyll a Fluorescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guadagno, C. R.; Beverly, D.; Pleban, J. R.; Speckman, H. N.; Ewers, B. E.; Weinig, C.

2017-12-01

Aridity is one of the most pronounced environmental limits to plant survival, and understanding how plants respond to drought and recovery is crucial for predicting impacts on managed and natural ecosystems. Changes in soil moisture conditions induce a suite of physiological responses from the cell to ecosystem scale, complicating the assessment of drought effects. Characterizing early indicators of water scarcity across species can inform biophysical models with improved understanding of plant hydraulics. While indexes exist for drought monitoring across scales, many are unable to identify imminent vegetative drought. We explore a method of early diagnosis using leaf-level and kinetic imaging measures of variable chlorophyll a fluorescence. This is a fast and reliable tool capturing leaf physiological changes in advance of changes in NDVI or passive solar induced fluorescence. Both image and leaf level Pulse Amplitude Method (PAM) measurements illustrate the utility of variable chlorophyll a fluorescence for monitoring vegetative drought. Variable fluorescence was monitored across populations of crops, desert shrubs, montane conifers and riparian deciduous trees under variable water regimes. We found a strong correlation (R = 0.85) between the maximum efficiency of photosystem II measured using variable fluorescence (Fv'Fm') and leaf level electrolyte leakage, a proximal cause of drought stress induced by cellular damage in leaves. This association was confirmed in two gymnosperm species (Picea engelmannii and Pinus contorta) and for diverse varieties of the crop species Brassica rapa. The use of chlorophyll a fluorescence per image also allowed for early detection of drought in aspen (Populus tremuloides). These results provide evidence that variable chlorophyll fluorescence decreases between 25% and 70% in mild and severely droughted twigs with respect to ones collected from trees in wet soil conditions. While current systems for monitoring variable fluorescence

Drought and its effect on mental health--how GPs can help.

PubMed

Sartore, Gina-Maree; Kelly, Brian; Stain, Helen J

2007-12-01

Drought has been a major stressor affecting rural New South Wales communities since late 2001. While much is known about the effects on mental health of acute natural disasters, there is less research available on the effect to communities of chronic natural disasters. Of great concern for Australian rural communities is that independent of drought, the rate of suicide for some groups is higher in rural than urban communities, while access to mental health services is less. This article explores how general practitioners can identify and respond to the drought related mental health needs of farming residents. Limited availability of mental health services to rural communities increases reliance on GPs for mental health care. Residents of farming communities report experiencing substantial distress in relation to the drought. The local GP is a key source of consultation, advice and treatment. Early intervention is a critical task in improving the mental health of rural communities. Early intervention provided by GPs will be enhanced through: working closely with other community agencies to promote early effective intervention for mental health problems, improve access to advice and initial consultation, and facilitate urgent consultation when needed; increasing access to services for farmers and responding promptly to needs; and utilising the support of rural organisational workers.

Late-Glacial to Early Holocene Climate Changes from a Central Appalachians Pollen and Macrofossil Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kneller, Margaret; Peteet, Dorothy

1997-01-01

A Late-glacial to early Holocene record of pollen, plant macrofossils and charcoal, based on two cores, is presented for Browns Pond in the central Appalachians of Virginia. An AMS radiocarbon chronology defines the timing of moist and cold excursions, superimposed upon the overall warming trend from 14,200 to 7,500 C-14 yr B.P. This site shows cold, moist conditions from approximately 14,200 to 12,700 C-14 yr B.P., with warming at 12,730, 11,280 and 10,050 C-14 yr B.P. A decrease in deciduous broad-leaved tree taxa and Pinus strobus (haploxylon) pollen, simultaneous with a re-expansion of Abies denotes a brief, cold reversal from 12,260 to 12,200 C-14 yr B.P. A second cold reversal, inferred from increases in montane conifers, is centered at 7,500 C-14 yr B.P. The cold reversals at Browns Pond may be synchronous with climate change in Greenland, and northwestern Europe. Warming at 11,280 C-14 yr B.P. shows the complexity of regional climate responses during the Younger Dryas chronozone.

Holocene moisture variations over the arid central Asia revealed by a comprehensive sand-dune record from the central Tian Shan, NW China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, Hao; Shen, Ji; Chen, Jianhui; Tsukamoto, Sumiko; Yang, Linhai; Cheng, Hongyi; Frechen, Manfred

2017-10-01

Arid central Asia (ACA) is one of the largest arid (desert) areas in the world, and its climate is dominated by the westerlies. In this study, we examined sand dune evolution from the Bayanbulak Basin in the Tian Shan (Xinjiang, NW China), aiming to infer the Holocene moisture history of the ACA. Combined with stratigraphic observation and environmental proxies analysis (grain size, magnetic susceptibility and total organic content), large numbers of luminescence ages from multiple sites (eight sections, 79 samples) were applied to reconstruct the evolution of the sand dune accumulation in the study basin. The overall results imply very dry conditions characterized by sand dune accumulation at ∼12-6.5 ka, a wet interval between ∼6.5 and 0.8 ka when soil formation occurred, and decreased moisture during the last 0.8 ka. This moisture variation pattern is generally consistent with that inferred from many lacustrine records in the core zone of ACA, suggesting a widespread dry period in the early-to-middle Holocene and relatively wet middle-to-late Holocene. Thus, the moisture history derived from the current sand dune system contrasts with that in Asian monsoon areas, which are characterized by a strong monsoon (high precipitation) in the early and mid-Holocene and a weak monsoon (low precipitation and dry climate) during the late Holocene. Our results strongly suggest that the winter solar insolation and the external boundary conditions such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, ice sheets, and meltwater fluxes, have been major influential factors triggering the Holocene moisture evolution in the core zone of ACA.

Relationship between carbohydrate partitioning and drought resistance in common bean.

PubMed

Cuellar-Ortiz, Sonia M; De La Paz Arrieta-Montiel, Maria; Acosta-Gallegos, Jorge; Covarrubias, Alejandra A

2008-10-01

Drought is a major yield constraint in common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). Pulse-chase (14)C-labelling experiments were performed using Pinto Villa (drought resistant) and Canario 60 (drought sensitive) cultivars, grown under optimal irrigation and water-deficit conditions. Starch and the radioactive label incorporated into starch were measured in leaves and pods at different time points, between the initiation of pod development and the production of mature pods. The water-stress treatment induced a higher starch accumulation in the drought-resistant cultivar pods than in those of the drought-sensitive cultivar. This effect was more noticeable during the early stages of pod development. Consistently, a reduction of starch content occurred in the leaves of the drought-resistant cultivar during the grain-filling stage. Furthermore, a synchronized accumulation of sucrose was observed in immature pods of this cultivar. These data indicate that carbohydrate partitioning is affected by drought in common bean, and that the modulation of this partitioning towards seed filling has been a successful strategy in the development of drought-resistant cultivars. In addition, our results suggest that, in the drought-resistant cultivar, the efficient carbon mobilization towards the seeds in response to water limitation is favoured by a mechanism that implies a more effective sucrose transport.

Phenotypic approaches to drought in cassava: review

PubMed Central

Okogbenin, Emmanuel; Setter, Tim L.; Ferguson, Morag; Mutegi, Rose; Ceballos, Hernan; Olasanmi, Bunmi; Fregene, Martin

2012-01-01

Cassava is an important crop in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Cassava can be produced adequately in drought conditions making it the ideal food security crop in marginal environments. Although cassava can tolerate drought stress, it can be genetically improved to enhance productivity in such environments. Drought adaptation studies in over three decades in cassava have identified relevant mechanisms which have been explored in conventional breeding. Drought is a quantitative trait and its multigenic nature makes it very challenging to effectively manipulate and combine genes in breeding for rapid genetic gain and selection process. Cassava has a long growth cycle of 12–18 months which invariably contributes to a long breeding scheme for the crop. Modern breeding using advances in genomics and improved genotyping, is facilitating the dissection and genetic analysis of complex traits including drought tolerance, thus helping to better elucidate and understand the genetic basis of such traits. A beneficial goal of new innovative breeding strategies is to shorten the breeding cycle using minimized, efficient or fast phenotyping protocols. While high throughput genotyping have been achieved, this is rarely the case for phenotyping for drought adaptation. Some of the storage root phenotyping in cassava are often done very late in the evaluation cycle making selection process very slow. This paper highlights some modified traits suitable for early-growth phase phenotyping that may be used to reduce drought phenotyping cycle in cassava. Such modified traits can significantly complement the high throughput genotyping procedures to fast track breeding of improved drought tolerant varieties. The need for metabolite profiling, improved phenomics to take advantage of next generation sequencing technologies and high throughput phenotyping are basic steps for future direction to improve genetic gain and maximize speed for drought tolerance breeding. PMID

Holocene dinoflagellate cyst record of climate and marine primary productivity change in the Santa Barbara Basin, southern California.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pospelova, Vera; Mertens, Kenneth N.; Hendy, Ingrid, L.; Pedersen, Thomas F.

2015-04-01

High-resolution sedimentary records of dinoflagellate cysts and other marine palynomorphs from the Santa Barbara Basin (Ocean Drilling Program Hole 893A) demonstrate large variability of primary productivity during the Holocene, as the California Current System responded to climate change. Throughout the sequence, dinoflagellate cyst assemblages are characterized by the dominance of cysts produced by heterotrophic dinoflagellates, and particularly by Brigantedinium, accompanied by other upwelling-related taxa such as Echinidinium and cysts of Protoperidinium americanum. During the early Holocene (~12-7 ka), the species richness is relatively low (16 taxa) and genius Brigantedinium reaches the highest relative abundance, thus indicating nutrient-rich and highly productive waters. The middle Holocene (~7-3.5 ka) is characterized by relatively constant cyst concentrations, and dinoflagellate cyst assemblages are indicative of a slight decrease in sea-surface temperature. A noticeable increase and greater range of fluctuations in the cyst concentrations during the late Holocene (~3.5-1 ka) indicate enhanced marine primary productivity and increased climatic variability, most likely related to the intensification of El Niño-like conditions. Keywords: dinoflagellate cysts, Holocene, North Pacific, climate, primary productivity.

Alpine Holocene Tree Ring Isotope Records - A Synthesis of a Multi-Proxy Approach in Dendroclimatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziehmer, Malin Michelle; Nicolussi, Kurt; Schlüchter, Christian; Leuenberger, Markus

2017-04-01

cellulose content is determined for each individual sample and carbon, oxygen and hydrogen isotopic ratios are measured simultaneously (Loader et al., 2015). The isotope records of carbon, oxygen and hydrogen show distinct low-frequency trends for the Early- and Mid-Holocene, but the individual series per proxy are often offset in their isotopic signature. As the sampling sites in our study are distributed along a SW-NE transect, the influence of the site conditions (latitude, longitude, elevation, exposition) and the tree species is tested and subsequently a correction is applied to the individual series. In addition, the tree-ring width records operate as a helpful tool in detecting and attributing the influence of larch budmoth outbreaks on the cellulose content and isotope records. We here present a synthesis of the applied multi-proxy approach and its ability to reconstruct Holocene climate variability for the time span from 9000 to 3500 years b2k covering the Early-Holocene (9000 to 7200 years b2k) and Mid-Holocene (7200 to 4200 years b2k) and the transition to the late Holocene (4200 to 3500 years b2k) as well as the recent 400 years including the modern warming. References Becker, B., & Kromer, B. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol., 1993, 103(1): 67-71 Boettger, T., et al. Anal. Chem., 2007, 79: 4603-4612 Büntgen, U. et al. Science, 2011, 331(6017): 578-582 Laumer, W., et al. Rapid Commun. Mass Spectrom., 2009, 23: 1934-1940 Loader, N.J., et al. Anal. Chem., 2015, 87: 376-380 Nicolussi K., et al. The Holocene, 2009, 19(6): 909-920

Drought, Agriculture, and Labor: Understanding Drought Impacts and Vulnerability in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greene, C.

2015-12-01

Hazardous drought impacts are a product of not only the physical intensity of drought, but also the economic, social, and environmental characteristics of the region exposed to drought. Drought risk management requires understanding the complex links between the physical and human dimensions of drought. Yet, there is a research gap in identifying and explaining the socio-economic complexities of drought in the context of the first world, especially for economic and socially marginal groups who rely on seasonal and temporary jobs. This research uses the current drought in California as a case study to identify the socioeconomic impacts of drought on farmworker communities in California's San Joaquin Valley, with a specific focus on the relationship between drought and agricultural labor. Through both a narrative analysis of drought coverage in newspaper media, drought policy documents, and interviews with farmworkers, farmers, community based organizations, and government officials in the San Joaquin Valley, this research aims to highlight the different understandings and experiences of the human impacts of drought and drought vulnerability in order to better inform drought risk planning and policy.

Large floods and climatic change during the Holocene on the Ara River, Central Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossman, Michael J.

2001-07-01

A reconstruction of part of the Holocene large flood record for the Ara River in central Japan is presented. Maximum intermediate gravel-size dimensions of terrace and modern floodplain gravels were measured along an 18-km reach of the river and were used in tractive force equations to estimate minimum competent flood depths. Results suggest that the magnitudes of large floods on the Ara River have varied in a non-random fashion since the end of the last glacial period. Large floods with greater magnitudes occurred during the warming period of the post-glacial and the warmer early to middle Holocene (to ˜5500 years BP). A shift in the magnitudes of large floods occurred ˜5500-5000 years BP. From this time, during the cooler middle to late Holocene, large floods generally had lower magnitudes. In the modern period, large flood magnitudes are the largest in the data set. As typhoons are the main cause of large floods on the Ara River in the modern record, the variation in large flood magnitudes suggests that the incidence of typhoon visits to the central Japan changed as the climate changed during the Holocene. Further, significant dates in the large flood record on the Ara River correspond to significant dates in Europe and the USA.

Late Pleistocene and Holocene vegetation and climate changes in the Lake Baikal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demske, D.; Heumann, G.; Granoszewski, W.; Mamakowa, K.; Piotrowska, N.; Bluszcz, A.; Goslar, T.

2003-04-01

Palynological high-resolution records from Lake Baikal sediments document strong vegetational changes during the transitions from an open landscape to Late Glacial shrublands and Holocene forests. For three core sites, investigated within EU-Project CONTINENT, sporomorph concentrates were used for AMS 14C dating of environmental changes. The pollen record from the northern lake site, located in vicinity to the Barguzin Mountains, shows pronounced maxima of Salix and Picea corresponding to late Pleistocene warming. A peak maximum in Alnus fruticosa during the Younger Dryas cooling coincided with low abundance of green algae in the lake and a decline in Picea trees. Fern-rich forests with Picea, Larix and Betula developed during early Holocene. With an abrupt expansion of Pteridium ferns Abies appeared in the northeastern Baikal region, reflecting optimum conditions for dark taiga. Among pines Pinus sibirica prevailed prior to the spread of P. sylvestris. Expansion of pines points to a distinct decrease in precipitation. A palynological sequence from the same site reflects the vegetation development during the last interglacial, with differences indicated by higher abundance of Abies. The upper part of the interglacial record comprises the transition to stadial conditions. Further pollen spectra are probably equivalent to first interstadials of the early glacial period (Zyryansk). Comparison with southern sites, in vicinity to the Selenga Delta and the Khamar-Daban Mountains, reveals that regional and temporal differentiation of Holocene vegetation development and climate conditions was closely related to the distribution of mountain ranges.

Risk identification of agricultural drought for sustainable agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.; Tarquis, A. M.

2014-04-01

drought persistence can be located. Drought early warning is developed using empirical functional relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought classes, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a forecasting tool on a monthly basis from May to October. The results of this drought risk identification effort are considered quite satisfactory offering a prognostic potential. The adopted remote sensing data and methods have proven very effective in delineating spatial variability and features in drought quantification and monitoring.

Risk identification of agricultural drought for sustainable Agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.; Tarquis, A. M.

2014-09-01

those of mild to moderate drought throughout the warm season. Finally, the areas with diachronic drought persistence can be located. Drought early warning is developed using empirical functional relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought classes, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a forecasting tool on a monthly basis from May to October. The results of this drought risk identification effort are considered quite satisfactory offering a prognostic potential. The adopted remote-sensing data and methods have proven very effective in delineating spatial variability and features in drought quantification and monitoring.

Charcoal Reflectance Reveals Early Holocene Boreal Deciduous Forests Burned at High Intensities

PubMed Central

Hudspith, Victoria A.; Belcher, Claire M.; Kelly, Ryan; Hu, Feng Sheng

2015-01-01

Wildfire size, frequency, and severity are increasing in the Alaskan boreal forest in response to climate warming. One of the potential impacts of this changing fire regime is the alteration of successional trajectories, from black spruce to mixed stands dominated by aspen, a vegetation composition not experienced since the early Holocene. Such changes in vegetation composition may consequently alter the intensity of fires, influencing fire feedbacks to the ecosystem. Paleorecords document past wildfire-vegetation dynamics and as such, are imperative for our understanding of how these ecosystems will respond to future climate warming. For the first time, we have used reflectance measurements of macroscopic charcoal particles (>180μm) from an Alaskan lake-sediment record to estimate ancient charring temperatures (termed pyrolysis intensity). We demonstrate that pyrolysis intensity increased markedly from an interval of birch tundra 11 ky ago (mean 1.52%Ro; 485°C), to the expansion of trees on the landscape ∼10.5 ky ago, remaining high to the present (mean 3.54%Ro; 640°C) irrespective of stand composition. Despite differing flammabilities and adaptations to fire, the highest pyrolysis intensities derive from two intervals with distinct vegetation compositions. 1) the expansion of mixed aspen and spruce woodland at 10 cal. kyr BP, and 2) the establishment of black spruce, and the modern boreal forest at 4 cal. kyr BP. Based on our analysis, we infer that predicted expansion of deciduous trees into the boreal forest in the future could lead to high intensity, but low severity fires, potentially moderating future climate-fire feedbacks. PMID:25853712

Charcoal reflectance reveals early holocene boreal deciduous forests burned at high intensities.

PubMed

Hudspith, Victoria A; Belcher, Claire M; Kelly, Ryan; Hu, Feng Sheng

2015-01-01

Wildfire size, frequency, and severity are increasing in the Alaskan boreal forest in response to climate warming. One of the potential impacts of this changing fire regime is the alteration of successional trajectories, from black spruce to mixed stands dominated by aspen, a vegetation composition not experienced since the early Holocene. Such changes in vegetation composition may consequently alter the intensity of fires, influencing fire feedbacks to the ecosystem. Paleorecords document past wildfire-vegetation dynamics and as such, are imperative for our understanding of how these ecosystems will respond to future climate warming. For the first time, we have used reflectance measurements of macroscopic charcoal particles (>180μm) from an Alaskan lake-sediment record to estimate ancient charring temperatures (termed pyrolysis intensity). We demonstrate that pyrolysis intensity increased markedly from an interval of birch tundra 11 ky ago (mean 1.52%Ro; 485°C), to the expansion of trees on the landscape ~10.5 ky ago, remaining high to the present (mean 3.54%Ro; 640°C) irrespective of stand composition. Despite differing flammabilities and adaptations to fire, the highest pyrolysis intensities derive from two intervals with distinct vegetation compositions. 1) the expansion of mixed aspen and spruce woodland at 10 cal. kyr BP, and 2) the establishment of black spruce, and the modern boreal forest at 4 cal. kyr BP. Based on our analysis, we infer that predicted expansion of deciduous trees into the boreal forest in the future could lead to high intensity, but low severity fires, potentially moderating future climate-fire feedbacks.

A first look at global flash drought: long term change and short term predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Xing; Wang, Linying; Ji, Peng

2017-04-01

"Flash drought" became popular after the unexpected 2012 central USA drought, mainly due to its rapid development, low predictability and devastating impacts on water resources and crop yields. A pilot study by Mo and Lettenmaier (2015) found that flash drought, based on a definition of concurrent heat extreme, soil moisture deficit and evapotranspiration (ET) enhancement at pentad scale, were in decline over USA during recent 100 years. Meanwhile, a recent work indicated that the occurrence of flash drought in China was doubled during the past 30 years, where a severe flash drought in the summer of 2013 ravaged 13 provinces in southern China. As global warming increases the frequency of heat waves and accelerates the hydrological cycle, the flash drought is expected to increase in general, but its trend might also be affected by interannual to decadal climate oscillations. To consolidate the hotspots of flash drought and the effects of climate change on flash drought, a global inventory is being conducted by using multi-source observations (in-situ, satellite and reanalysis), CMIP5 historical simulations and future projections under different forcing scenarios, as well as global land surface hydrological modeling for key variables including surface air temperature, soil moisture and ET. In particular, a global picture of the flash drought distribution, the contribution of naturalized and anthropogenic forcings to global flash drought change, and the risk of global flash drought in the future, will be presented. Besides investigating the long-term change of flash drought, providing reliable early warning is also essential to developing adaptation strategies. While regional drought early warning systems have been emerging in recent decade, forecasting of flash drought is still at an exploratory stage due to limited understanding of flash drought predictability. Here, a set of sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hindcast datasets are being used to assess the short term

Drought Early Warning and Agro-Meteorological Risk Assessment using Earth Observation Rainfall Datasets and Crop Water Budget Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarnavsky, E.

2016-12-01

The water resources satisfaction index (WRSI) model is widely used in drought early warning and food security analyses, as well as in agro-meteorological risk management through weather index-based insurance. Key driving data for the model is provided from satellite-based rainfall estimates such as ARC2 and TAMSAT over Africa and CHIRPS globally. We evaluate the performance of these rainfall datasets for detecting onset and cessation of rainfall and estimating crop production conditions for the WRSI model. We also examine the sensitivity of the WRSI model to different satellite-based rainfall products over maize growing regions in Tanzania. Our study considers planting scenarios for short-, medium-, and long-growing cycle maize, and we apply these for 'regular' and drought-resistant maize, as well as with two different methods for defining the start of season (SOS). Simulated maize production estimates are compared against available reported production figures at the national and sub-national (province) levels. Strengths and weaknesses of the driving rainfall data, insights into the role of the SOS definition method, and phenology-based crop yield coefficient and crop yield reduction functions are discussed in the context of space-time drought characteristics. We propose a way forward for selecting skilled rainfall datasets and discuss their implication for crop production monitoring and the design and structure of weather index-based insurance products as risk transfer mechanisms implemented across scales for smallholder farmers to national programmes.

The Lateglacial and Holocene history of annually laminated Lake Tiefer See

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theuerkauf, Martin; Dräger, Nadine; Lampe, Reinhard; Lorenz, Sebastian; Kienel, Ulrike; Schult, Manuela; Słowiński, Michał; Wulf, Sabine; Zawiska, Izabela; Brauer, Achim

2015-04-01

Lake Tiefer See (N 53.59, E 12.53) is one of the rare lakes with a long sequence of annually laminated Holocene sediments in northern Central Europe. The lake is a valuable link between laminated lakes in more oceanic climates of the Eifel region and NW Germany and laminated lakes in the more continental climate of Poland. It thus provides great potential to study past climate, vegetation and human land use along that climate transition. The sediments of Lake Tiefer See show repeated changes in varve quality and composition. To disentangle in how far these changes relate to either past climate change, lake water level fluctuations or to changes in the local environment caused by e.g. human activity, we studied 16 sediment cores taken mainly from the lake margin. Almost all cores show interruptions in sedimentation namely during the mid-Holocene, suggesting that the lake water level has been lowered during this period. However, peat-gyttia alternations point at lake level fluctuations also during the early and late Holocene. Discontinuous sedimentation in cores from intermediate depth points at recurring slumping events. The pollen record additionally indicates prominent alternations in land use intensity throughout the late Holocene. By testing correlation between the hydrological changes, changes in land use intensity and changes in the sediment record we discuss effects of climate change and further factors on varve formation in Lake Tiefer See. This study is a contribution to the Virtual Institute of Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analysis -ICLEA- of the Helmholtz Association; grant number VH-VI-415.

Late Holocene and recent rainforest cultural landscapes of North Queensland, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinberger, L. M.; Moss, P. T.; Haberle, S.; Cosgrove, R.; Ferrier

2011-12-01

The tropical rainforests of North Queensland, Australia, have been environments of significant human activity for several thousand years. Palaeoecological research has highlighted the long-term effects of Quaternary climate change on these environments at a broad spatial scale, including the expansion of tropical rainforest across the region following the termination of the Last Glacial Maximum. However, identifying the effects of a hunter-gatherer Aboriginal population has been more difficult. Palaeoecological suggestions of Pleistocene Aboriginal burning, based on pollen and charcoal records, have relied on coincident timing with a general narrative of colonisation rather than direct links with archaeological evidence. Current research is explicitly examining the environmental consequences of human activity in North Queensland rainforests by producing local palaeoecological data directly linked to sites and periods of human occupation. Pollen, macrocharcoal and phytolith records have been produced from sites of human activity within the rainforest. Late Holocene Aboriginal occupation of the rainforest is demonstrated to have had significant cultural links to patches of open vegetation that existed within the rainforest. While these patches are likely to have originated as edaphically controlled remnants of Pleistocene vegetation, their expansion and maintenance in the late Holocene is associated with increasing intensity of Aboriginal occupation of the rainforest. Late Holocene Aboriginal rainforest occupation is also contrasted with the historical European colonisation of the rainforest in the late 19th century, which resulted in the most significant environmental changes in the region since the early Holocene. Historical and ethnographic records provide important cultural context for understanding the transition between Aboriginal and European cultural landscapes of the rainforest.

Refining the time span between the early Holocene Askja-S and Hässeldalen tephras through differential dating based on varve counting from Lake Czechowskie (N Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ott, Florian; Wulf, Sabine; Serb, Johanna; Słowiński, Michał; Obremska, Milena; Tjallingii, Rik; Błaszkiewicz, Mirosław; Brauer, Achim

2016-04-01

Robust chronological framework is a crucial necessity for palaeoclimate reconstructions and especially for synchronizing records to decipher climatic teleconnections. Volcanic ash deposits (tephra) provide isochronous time marker that can be utilized as tie-lines to synchronize sedimentary archives. Advances in the detection and identification of non-visible (crypto-) tephra, often transported over thousands of kilometers, also allows identifying ash deposits even in distal records. We report the first findings of co-existing early Holocene Hässeldalen and Askja-S cryptotephras in a varved sediment record in Lake Czechowskie (JC, northern Poland). Annual layer counting was used to establish a varve chronology and micro-facies analyses, relative calcium (Ca) and titanium (Ti) concentrations were used to decipher between lake productivity and detrital flux. Here we focus (i) on the determination of the time span between both tephras, (ii) revised age estimates for the Askja-S tephra and (iii) the sedimentological response of the JC record to the Preboreal Oscillation (PBO), a short lived cold episode during the early Holocene. A differential dating approach revealed a time span of 152 +11/-8 varve years counted in the JC sediment record between both tephras. Since the varved interval of the JC sediment record comprising the tephras is floating, we anchored the floating varve chronology to an absolute timescale by using the radiocarbon-dated Hässeldalen Tephra (11,380 ± 216 cal a BP, Wohlfarth et al, 2006). The resulting age for the Askja-S of 11,454-11,002 cal a BP is, even considering the rather large uncertainties, a few decades to several hundred years older than most radiocarbon based age models, but it supports the original age model from Hässseldala port. The sediment response to the PBO cold period is seen only in a slight decrease in titanium, a proxy for detrital matter flux. Varve micro-facies did not change during this interval confirming a weak impact

Spatiotemporal Drought Analysis and Drought Indices Comparison in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janardhanan, A.

2017-12-01

Droughts and floods are an ever-occurring phenomenon that has been wreaking havoc on humans since the start of time. As droughts are on a very large scale, studying them within a regional context can minimize confounding factors such as climate change. Droughts and floods are extremely erratic and very difficult to predict and therefore necessitate modeling through advanced statistics. The SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) and the SPEI (Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) are two ways to temporally model drought and flood patterns across each metrological sub basin in India over a variety of different time scales. SPI only accounts for precipitation values, while the SPEI accounts for both precipitation and temperature and is commonly regarded as a more reliable drought index. Using monthly rainfall and temperature data from 1871-2016, these two indices were calculated. The results depict the drought and flood severity index, length of drought, and average SPI or SPEI value for each meteorological sub region in India. A Wilcox Ranksum test was then conducted to determine whether these two indices differed over the long term for drought analysis. The drought return periods were analyzed to determine if the population mean differed between the SPI and SPEI values. Our analysis found no statistical difference between SPI and SPEI with regards to long-term drought analysis. This indicates that temperature is not needed when modeling drought on a long-term time scale and that SPI is just as effective as SPEI, which has the potential to save a lot of time and resources on calculating drought indices.

Building the vegetation drought response index for Canada (VegDRI-Canada) to monitor agricultural drought: first results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tadesse, Tsegaye; Champagne, Catherine; Wardlow, Brian D.; Hadwen, Trevor A.; Brown, Jesslyn; Demisse, Getachew B.; Bayissa, Yared A.; Davidson, Andrew M.

2017-01-01

Drought is a natural climatic phenomenon that occurs throughout the world and impacts many sectors of society. To help decision-makers reduce the impacts of drought, it is important to improve monitoring tools that provide relevant and timely information in support of drought mitigation decisions. Given that drought is a complex natural hazard that manifests in different forms, monitoring can be improved by integrating various types of information (e.g., remote sensing and climate) that is timely and region specific to identify where and when droughts are occurring. The Vegetation Drought Response Index for Canada (VegDRI-Canada) is a recently developed drought monitoring tool for Canada. VegDRI-Canada extends the initial VegDRI concept developed for the conterminous United States to a broader transnational coverage across North America. VegDRI-Canada models are similar to those developed for the United States, integrating satellite observations of vegetation status, climate data, and biophysical information on land use and land cover, soil characteristics, and other environmental factors. Collectively, these different types of data are integrated into the hybrid VegDRI-Canada to isolate the effects of drought on vegetation. Twenty-three weekly VegDRI-Canada models were built for the growing season (April–September) through the weekly analysis of these data using a regression tree-based data mining approach. A 15-year time series of VegDRI-Canada results (s to 2014) was produced using these models and the output was validated by randomly selecting 20% of the historical data, as well as holdout year (15% unseen data) across the growing season that the Pearson’s correlation ranged from 0.6 to 0.77. A case study was also conducted to evaluate the VegDRI-Canada results over the prairie region of Canada for two drought years and one non-drought year for three weekly periods of the growing season (i.e., early-, mid-, and late season). The comparison of the Veg

Holocene Paleolimnological Records from Thule, Northwestern Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbett, L.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kelly, M. A.; Axford, Y.

2012-12-01

Assessing Holocene climatic and environmental variability around the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet provides important information against which to compare ice sheet margin fluctuations. Here, we report preliminary results from ongoing research in northwestern Greenland. We present records of physical properties of lake sediments and use these to make inferences about the evolution of the lake and its surroundings over the latter half of the Holocene. We collected two sediment cores, 90 and 72 cm in length, from a small (surface area ~0.3 km2), shallow (maximum depth ~4.5 m) lake at 76°33'40''N 68°26'31''W near Thule Air Base in July 2012. The length of the cores was limited by the length of the core barrel and does not reflect the total thickness of sediment in the lake. The lake is situated within the glacial limit and likely formed subsequent to deglaciation of the region during early Holocene time. No glaciers exist within the lake's catchment today; the primary modern source of sediment is a perennial inflow from the west. We developed a preliminary depth-age model using radiocarbon ages of terrestrial organic macrofossils. Thus far, we have analyzed the sediments for magnetic susceptibility and loss-on-ignition. A radiocarbon age of 6069 ± 90 cal yr BP at the base of the core indicates that the sediments preserve a continuous record of middle to late Holocene conditions. The top of both cores consists of a thick (~12 cm) layer of dark gray unlaminated sediments, while the rest of the material in both cores is lighter brown to olive, finely laminated sediment. The upper layer is characterized by low water content (<25%), low loss-on-ignition (<5%), and high magnetic susceptibility (~150-250 x10-6). Conversely, the laminated sediments beneath have higher water content (~40-50%), higher loss-on-ignition (~5-10%), and much lower magnetic susceptibility (<50 x10-6). We hypothesize that the upper, less organic unit may represent a single event in the lake

Holocene Climate, Fire and Vegetation Change Inferred from Lacustrine Proxies in the Tropical Andes, Laguna Yanacocha, SE Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Y.; Isaacson, M.; Matthews-Bird, F.; Schellinger, G. C.; Carrio, C. L.; Kelly, M. A.; Lowell, T. V.; Beal, S. A., Jr.; Stroup, J. S.; Tapia, P. M.

2016-12-01

We present a 12,000-year long paleoenvironmental reconstruction from a small high-elevation lake in southeastern Peru. Climate and environmental change are inferred from chironomid species assemblages, charcoal abundance, size and morphology, and the abundance of some important pollen and spore types (Poaceae, Asteraceae, Isoetes). We employ a new chironomid training set developed for tropical South America (Matthews-Bird et al. 2016) to interpret shifts in chironomid assemblages. The sedimentary record from Yanacocha was first discussed by Beal et al. (2014), who reconstructed Hg deposition and measured metals, biogenic silica and loss-on-ignition through the Holocene. Additional downcore proxies are presented by Stroup et al. (this meeting). Yanacocha sits at 4910 m asl and less than 2 km from Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC), but the lake's watershed has been topographically isolated from glacier meltwater since 12.3 ka. We compare our inferences from biological proxies with independent constraints on paleoclimate derived from published reconstructions of QIC fluctuations. Previous studies found that temperature was the primary driver of late Holocene fluctuations of QIC (e.g., Stroup et al. 2014), but records from the broader region indicate the Holocene also saw major changes in hydroclimate. Most modern precipitation at Yanacocha derives from the Amazon Basin to the east, and El Niño years are associated with drier conditions. Holocene sediments at Yanacocha likely thus record both changes in temperature and hydroclimate. Vegetation was sparse and no charcoal was preserved prior to 11.7 ka, whereas the early Holocene saw the highest overall pollen concentrations of the entire record and the onset of charcoal preservation. An increase in charcoal abundance, decrease in pollen concentrations, and shifts in vegetation and chironomid assemblages at Yanacocha suggest drier conditions from 9 to 3.5 ka, consistent with widespread regional evidence for early to middle

Agricultural drought risk monitoring and yield loss forecast with remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagy, Attila; Tamás, János; Fehér, János

2015-04-01

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Global Water Partnership (GWP) have launched a joint Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) to improve monitoring and prevention of droughts. In the frame of this project this study focuses on identification of agricultural drought characteristics and elaborates a monitoring method (with application of remote sensing data), which could result in appropriate early warning of droughts before irreversible yield loss and/or quality degradation occur. The spatial decision supporting system to be developed will help the farmers in reducing drought risk of the different regions by plant specific calibrated drought indexes. The study area was the Tisza River Basin, which is located in Central Europe within the Carpathian Basin. For the investigations normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used calculated from 16 day moving average chlorophyll intensity and biomass quantity data. The results offer concrete identification of remote sensing and GIS data tools for agricultural drought monitoring and forecast, which eventually provides information on physical implementation of drought risk levels. In the first step, we statistically normalized the crop yield maps and the MODIS satellite data. Then the drought-induced crop yield loss values were classified. The crop yield loss data were validated against the regional meteorological drought index values (SPI), the water management and soil physical data. The objective of this method was to determine the congruency of data derived from spectral data and from field measurements. As a result, five drought risk levels were developed to identify the effect of drought on yields: Watch, Early Warning, Warning, Alert and Catastrophe. In the frame of this innovation such a data link and integration, missing from decision process of IDMP, are established, which can facilitate the rapid spatial and temporal monitoring of meteorological, agricultural drought phenomena and its

Contrasting Responses of the Humboldt Current Ecosystem between the Holocene and MIS5e Interglacials Revealed from Multiple Sediment Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvatteci, R.; Schneider, R. R.; Blanz, T.; Martinez, P.; Crosta, X.

2016-12-01

The Humboldt Current Ecosystem (HCE) off Peru yields about 10% of the global fish catch, producing more fish per unit area than any other region in the world. The high productivity is maintained by the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water from the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), driven by strong trade winds. However, the potential impacts of climate change on upwelling dynamics and oceanographic conditions in the near future are uncertain, threatening local and global economies. Here, we unravel the response of the HCE to contrasting climatic conditions during the last two interglacials (i.e. Holocene and MIS5e) providing an independent insight about the relation between climatic factors and upwelling and productivity dynamics. For this purpose, we used multiple cores to reconstruct past changes in OMZ and upwelling intensity, productivity and fish biomass variability. Chronologies for the Holocene were obtained by multiple 14C ages and laminae correlations among cores, while for the MIS5e they were mainly done by correlation of prominent features in several proxies with other published records. We used a multiproxy approach including alkenones to reconstruct sea surface temperatures, δ15N as a proxy for water column denitrification, redox sensitive metals as proxies for sediment redox conditions, and diatom and fish debris assemblages to reconstruct ecological changes. The results show a very different response of the HCE to climate conditions during the last 2 interglacials, likely driven by changes in Tropical Pacific dynamics. During the Holocene we find that 1) the Late Holocene exhibits higher multi-centennial scale variability compared to the Early Holocene, 2) increased upwelling and a weak OMZ during the mid-Holocene, and 3) long term increase in productivity (diatoms and fishes) from the Early to the Late Holocene. During the MIS5e we find an 1) intense OMZ, 2) strong water column stratification, 3) high siliceous biomass, and 4) low fish biomass compared

Past and Future Drought Regimes in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sen, Burak; Topcu, Sevilay; Turkes, Murat; Sen, Baha

2010-05-01

Climate variability in the 20th century was characterized by apparent precipitation variability at both temporal and spatial scales. In addition to the well-known characteristic seasonal and year-to-year variability, some marked and long-term changes in precipitation occurred in Turkey, particularly after the early 1970s. Drought, originating from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended time period (which is usually a season or more) has become a recurring phenomenon in Turkey in the past few decades. Spatially coherent with the significant drought events since early 1970s, water stress and shortages for all water user sectors have also reached their critical points in Turkey. Analyzing the historical occurrence of drought provides an understanding of the range of climate possibilities for a country, resulting in more informed management decision-making. However, future projections about spatial and temporal changes in drought characteristics such as frequency, intensity and duration can be challenging for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Hence, the objectives of this study are (i) to analyze the spatial and temporal dimensions of historical droughts in Turkey, (2) to predict potential intensity, frequency and duration of droughts in Turkey for the future (2070-2100). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Percent to Normal Index (PNI) have been used to assess the drought characteristics. Rainfall datasets for the reference period, 1960-1990, were acquired from 52 stations (representative of all kinds of regions with different rainfall regimes in the country) of the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS). The future rainfall series for the 2070-2100 period were simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM3) for IPCC's SRESS-A2 scenario conditions. For verification of RegCM3 simulations, the model was performed for the reference period and simulated rainfall data were used for computing two drought indices (SPI

Lacustrine records of continental climate in northwest Greenland through the Holocene and Last Interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFarlin, J. M.; Axford, Y.; Osburn, M. R.; Lasher, G. E.; Francis, D. R.; Kelly, M. A.; Osterberg, E. C.

2015-12-01

Lake sediment records provide opportunities for high-resolution observations of paleoclimate that help to place modern climate change in geologic context. Here we present a terrestrial record of July air temperature for northwest Greenland (Nunatarssuaq, ~25 km east of the Thule Air Base) through the Holocene and a prior warm period, inferred from subfossil insect remains (Chironomidae) preserved in lacustrine sediments. In addition, we discuss ongoing work in characterizing the sources and isotopic composition of leaf waxes preserved in the same sediments. Multiple parallel sediment cores were collected in the summers of 2012 and 2014 from Wax Lips Lake (informal name), a non-glacial lake situated <2 km from the current margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Radiocarbon ages were obtained on aquatic mosses from intact laminae, and indicate that the record spans the Holocene, beginning at ~10.4 ka, as well as an interval beyond the range of 14C (>44 ka) and thus predates the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Our results demonstrate temperatures warmer than present through the early and mid Holocene followed by cooling in the late Holocene. Material that pre-dates the LGM contains insect assemblages indicating temperatures warmer than the warmest millennia of the Holocene. We interpret this material as most likely dating to the Last Interglacial Period (MIS 5). Along with assemblages of Chironomidae, we find subfossil Chaoboridae in one section of the pre-LGM sediments, suggesting exceptionally warm conditions based upon the distribution of modern-day Chaoborus. We find abundant n-alkanes and n-acids are preserved in the Holocene and pre-LGM sediments, allowing for complementary compound-specific δD analyses and identification of organic matter source in addition to chironomid derived temperature records.

Holocene temperature history at the west Greenland Ice Sheet margin reconstructed from lake sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Y.; Losee, S.; Briner, J. P.; Francis, D.; Langdon, P. G.; Walker, I.

2011-12-01

Paleoclimate proxy data can help reduce uncertainties regarding how the Greenland Ice Sheet, and thus global sea level, will respond to future climate change. Studies of terrestrial deposits along Greenland's margins offer opportunities to reconstruct both past temperature changes and the associated changes in Greenland Ice Sheet extent, thus empirically characterizing the ice sheet's response to temperature change. Here we present Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions developed from sediment records of five lakes along the western ice sheet margin, near Jakobshavn Isbræ and Disko Bugt. Insect (Chironomidae, or non-biting midge) remains from North Lake provide quantitative estimates of summer temperatures over the past ca. 7500 years at multi-centennial resolution, and changes in sediment composition at all five lakes offer evidence for glacier fluctuations, changes in lake productivity, and other environmental changes throughout the Holocene. Aims of this study include quantification of warmth in the early to mid Holocene, when summer solar insolation forcing exceeded present-day values at northern latitudes and the local Greenland Ice Sheet margin receded inboard of its present position, and the magnitude of subsequent Neoglacial and Little Ice Age cooling that drove ice sheet expansion. We find that the Jakobshavn Isbrae region experienced the warmest temperatures of the Holocene (with summers 2 to 3.5 degrees C warmer than present) between ~6000 and 4000 years ago. Neoglacial cooling began rather abruptly ~4000 years ago and intensified 3000 years ago. Our proxy data suggest that the coldest summers of the Holocene occurred during the 18th and 19th centuries in the Jakobshavn region. These results agree well with previous glacial geologic studies reconstructing local ice margin positions through the Holocene. Such reconstructions of paleoclimate and past ice sheet extent provide targets for testing and improving ice sheet models.

Remotely Sensed Quantitative Drought Risk Assessment in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.

2012-04-01

Hazard may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with significant impact to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper deals with drought risk assessment, which the first step designed to find out what the problems are and comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk management which is not covered in this paper, there should be a fourth step to address the need for feedback and to take post-audits of all risk assessment exercises. In particular, quantitative drought risk assessment is attempted by using statistical methods. For the qualification of drought, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is employed, which is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The remotely sensed estimation of RDI is based on NOA-AVHRR satellite data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). The study area is Thessaly, central Greece, which is a drought-prone agricultural region characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Specifically, the undertaken drought risk assessment processes are specified as follows: 1. Risk identification: This step involves drought quantification and monitoring based on remotely sensed RDI and extraction of several features such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Moreover, it involves a drought early warning system based on the above parameters. 2. Risk estimation: This step includes an analysis of drought severity, frequency and their relationships. 3. Risk evaluation: This step covers drought evaluation based on analysis of RDI images before and after each drought episode, which usually lasts one hydrological year (12month). The results of these three-step drought assessment processes are considered quite satisfactory in a drought-prone region such as Thessaly in central

A Hybrid Index for Characterizing Drought Based on a Nonparametric Kernel Estimator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Shengzhi; Huang, Qiang; Leng, Guoyong

This study develops a nonparametric multivariate drought index, namely, the Nonparametric Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (NMSDI), by considering the variations of both precipitation and streamflow. Building upon previous efforts in constructing Nonparametric Multivariate Drought Index, we use the nonparametric kernel estimator to derive the joint distribution of precipitation and streamflow, thus providing additional insights in drought index development. The proposed NMSDI are applied in the Wei River Basin (WRB), based on which the drought evolution characteristics are investigated. Results indicate: (1) generally, NMSDI captures the drought onset similar to Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and drought termination and persistence similar tomore » Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI). The drought events identified by NMSDI match well with historical drought records in the WRB. The performances are also consistent with that by an existing Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) at various timescales, confirming the validity of the newly constructed NMSDI in drought detections (2) An increasing risk of drought has been detected for the past decades, and will be persistent to a certain extent in future in most areas of the WRB; (3) the identified change points of annual NMSDI are mainly concentrated in the early 1970s and middle 1990s, coincident with extensive water use and soil reservation practices. This study highlights the nonparametric multivariable drought index, which can be used for drought detections and predictions efficiently and comprehensively.« less

Drought occurence

Treesearch

John W. Coulston

2007-01-01

Why Is Drought Important? Drought is an important forest disturbance that occurs regularly in the Western United States and irregularly in the Eastern United States (Dale and others 2001). Moderate drought stress tends to slow plant growth while severedrought stress can also reduce photosynthesis (Kareiva and others 1993). Drought can also interact with...

Comprehensive drought characteristics analysis based on a nonlinear multivariate drought index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jie; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Li, Yunyun; Hu, Hui; Chen, Yutong; Huang, Qiang; Yao, Jun

2018-02-01

It is vital to identify drought events and to evaluate multivariate drought characteristics based on a composite drought index for better drought risk assessment and sustainable development of water resources. However, most composite drought indices are constructed by the linear combination, principal component analysis and entropy weight method assuming a linear relationship among different drought indices. In this study, the multidimensional copulas function was applied to construct a nonlinear multivariate drought index (NMDI) to solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship due to its dependence structure and flexibility. The NMDI was constructed by combining meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural variables (precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture) to better reflect the multivariate variables simultaneously. Based on the constructed NMDI and runs theory, drought events for a particular area regarding three drought characteristics: duration, peak, and severity were identified. Finally, multivariate drought risk was analyzed as a tool for providing reliable support in drought decision-making. The results indicate that: (1) multidimensional copulas can effectively solve the complicated and nonlinear relationship among multivariate variables; (2) compared with single and other composite drought indices, the NMDI is slightly more sensitive in capturing recorded drought events; and (3) drought risk shows a spatial variation; out of the five partitions studied, the Jing River Basin as well as the upstream and midstream of the Wei River Basin are characterized by a higher multivariate drought risk. In general, multidimensional copulas provides a reliable way to solve the nonlinear relationship when constructing a comprehensive drought index and evaluating multivariate drought characteristics.

Aridity of Central Asia through the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aizen, E. M.; Aizen, V. B.; Mayewski, P. A.; Zhou, H.; Rodda, C.; Joswiak, D.; Takeuchi, N.; Fujita, K.; Kurbatov, A.; Grigholm, B. O.

2017-12-01

The dynamics of aridity in Central Asia for over the past 12,000 years has been analyzed using deep ice core records recovered from the Siberian Altai, Tien Shan and Pamir glaciers. An analysis of aridity in the 20-21 centuries based on the long-term meteorological observations complements the paleo- climate reconstruction. The goal of our research is to examine an aridity (at low and high temperatures) in Central Asia as a complex of characteristics including air temperature-precipitation relationship (Koppen, 1918, Geiger, 1961, Mezencev, 1973), intensity of dust loading and biomass burning. The stable isotope ratio, soluble ionic and insoluble particulate geochemical components and oxalate preserved in ice were considered in relation to climatic and environmental changes; and to determine the main aerosol sources using ground- and upper-level meteorological data. Multivariate statistical methods were employed for examination of the main geo-chemical components responsible for the preserved aridity variability. Insoluble particle concentrations preserved in the ice core were affected mainly by precipitation regimes and wind speed. Concentration of all size particles was found to be negatively correlated with monthly temperatures indicating low temperatures during the dry particle deposition. Two abrupt depletions in stable isotope records, i.e., Younger Dryas and Centurial Sever Drought (CSD), occurred during cold, dry, windy periods of intensified dust storms in large desert areas. When climate became colder and drier, the Central Asian deserts extended, wind speeds increased loading mineral dust to atmosphere, which formed inversion while the convection processes and precipitation occurrence were limited. Warmer and wetter conditions are associated with less dust loading that occurred during the Holocene climate optimum, medieval warm and modern warm periods. The sudden climate transitions are accompanied by the most intensifying mineral dust loading. From the

Holocene vegetation change in the northern Peten and its implications for Maya prehistory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, David; Byrne, Roger; Schreiner, Thomas; Hansen, Richard

2006-05-01

An ˜8400 cal yr record of vegetation change from the northern Peten, Guatemala, provides new insights into the environmental history of the archaeological area known as the Mirador Basin. Pollen, loss on ignition, and magnetic susceptibility analyses indicate warm and humid conditions in the early to mid-Holocene. Evidence for a decrease in forest cover around 4600 cal yr B.P. coincides with the first appearance of Zea mays pollen, suggesting that human activity was responsible. The period between 3450 cal yr B.P. and 1000 cal yr B.P. is characterized by a further decline in forest pollen types, includes an abrupt increase in weedy taxa, and exhibits the highest magnetic susceptibility values since the early Holocene, all of which suggest further agricultural disturbance in the watershed. A brief drop in disturbance indicators around 1800 cal yr B.P. may represent the Preclassic abandonment of the area. Changing pollen frequencies around 1000 cal yr B.P. indicate a cessation of human disturbance, which represents the Late Classic collapse of the southern Maya lowlands.

Drought impacts on vegetation activity in the Mediterranean region: An assessment using remote sensing data and multi-scale drought indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouveia, C. M.; Trigo, R. M.; Beguería, S.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.

2017-04-01

The present work analyzes the drought impacts on vegetation over the entire Mediterranean basin, with the purpose of determining the vegetation communities, regions and seasons at which vegetation is driven by drought. Our approach is based on the use of remote sensing data and a multi-scalar drought index. Correlation maps between fields of monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at different time scales (1-24 months) were computed for representative months of winter (Feb), spring (May), summer (Aug) and fall (Nov). Results for the period from 1982 to 2006 show large areas highly controlled by drought, although presenting high spatial and seasonal differences, with a maximum influence in August and a minimum in February. The highest correlation values are observed in February for 3 months' time scale and in May for 6 and 12 months. The higher control of drought on vegetation in February and May is obtained mainly over the drier vegetation communities (Mediterranean Dry and Desertic) at shorter time scales (3 to 9 months). Additionally, in February the impact of drought on vegetation is lower for Temperate Oceanic and Continental vegetation types and takes place at longer time scales (18-24). The dependence of drought time-scale response with water balance, as obtained through a simple difference between precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, varies with vegetation communities. During February and November low water balance values correspond to shorter time scales over dry vegetation communities, whereas high water balance values implies longer time scales over Temperate Oceanic and Continental areas. The strong control of drought on vegetation observed for Mediterranean Dry and Desertic vegetation types located over areas with high negative values of water balance emphasizes the need for an early warning drought system covering the entire Mediterranean basin. We are confident

Remote Sensing of Agro-droughts in Guangdong Province of China Using MODIS Satellite Data.

PubMed

Gao, Maofang; Qin, Zhihao; Zhang, Hong'ou; Lu, Liping; Zhou, Xia; Yang, Xiuchun

2008-08-08

A practical approach was developed in the study for drought monitoring in Guangdong province of China on the basis of vegetation supply water index (VSWI) and precipitation distance index (PDI). A comprehensive index for assessment of agro-drought severity (SADI) was then established from the normalized VSWI and PDI. Using MODIS satellite images and precipitation data from ground-observed meteorological stations, we applied the approach to Guangdong for drought monitoring in 2006. The monitoring results showed that the drought severity on average was very low in the province during the main growing season from May to September in 2006. However, seasonal variation of the severity was also obvious in difference counties of the province. Higher severity of drought could be seen in the periods of late-June (In China each month is traditionally divided into 3 periods. Each is with 10 days and has different names. This division system is mainly with consideration of farming seasons hence has been widely used as the basis of drought monitoring periods in China. In order to keep this tradition, we define, for example, for June, the early-June as the period from 1 st to 10 th of June, the mid-June as the period from 11 th to 20 th , and the late-June as the period from 21 st to 30 th . So mid-August denotes the period from 11 th to 20 th of August, and early-July the period from 1 st to 10th of July, and so on.), early-July, mid-August and late-September. Regionally, Leizhou Peninsula in the west had the most serious drought before mid-May. Validation indicated that our monitoring results were generally consistent with the drought statistics data and the results from Chinese National Satellite Meteorological Center (CNSMC), which used only remote sensing data. This consistence confirmed the applicability of our approach for drought monitoring. Our better identification of drought severity in Leizhou Peninsula of western Guangdong than that of CNSMC might suggest that the

Impact of Arctic shelf summer stratification on Holocene climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibodeau, Benoit; Bauch, Henning A.; Knies, Jochen

2018-07-01

Understanding the dynamic of freshwater and sea-ice export from the Arctic is crucial to better comprehend the potential near-future climate change consequences. Here, we report nitrogen isotope data of a core from the Laptev Sea to shed light on the impact of the Holocene Siberian transgression on the summer stratification of the Laptev Sea. Our data suggest that the oceanographic setting was less favourable to sea-ice formation in the Laptev Sea during the early to mid-Holocene. It is only after the sea level reached a standstill at around 4 ka that the water column structure in the Laptev Sea became more stable. Modern-day conditions, often described as "sea-ice factory", were reached about 2 ka ago, after the development of a strong summer stratification. These results are consistent with sea-ice reconstruction along the Transpolar Drift, highlighting the potential contribution of the Laptev Sea to the export of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean.

Isotopic signature of Tian-Shan mountain soils as a record of climatic changes of the Late Pleistocene and Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovaleva, N. O.

2018-01-01

Specific features of the polygenetic mountain soils of the Tian-Shan (Kyrgystan) are due to the action of present-day and relict soil processes that vary in age and intensity under the influence of glacier movements and climatic fluctuations. These properties can be used as indicators of paleoclimatic changes. The diagnosis of ancient pedogenesis was based on criteria with the longest response time, namely, soil morphology, characteristics of organic matter, 13C-NMR spectra of soil humic acids, isotope composition of humus and carbonates, and the soil age. The results indicate a glacial climate of the Late Pleistocene, a dry and cold climate during the Early Holocene, warm and dry conditions of soil formation in the Middle Holocene, and humidity climate of the Late Holocene.

Pottery use by early Holocene hunter-gatherers of the Korean peninsula closely linked with the exploitation of marine resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shoda, Shinya; Lucquin, Alexandre; Ahn, Jae-ho; Hwang, Chul-joo; Craig, Oliver E.

2017-08-01

The earliest pottery on the Korean peninsula dates to the early Holocene, notably later than other regions of East Asia, such as Japan, the Russian Far East and Southern China. To shed light on the function of such early Korean pottery and to understand the motivations for its adoption, organic residue analysis was conducted on pottery sherds and adhered surface deposit on the wall of pottery vessels (foodcrusts) excavated from the Sejuk shell midden (7.7-6.8ka calBP) on the southeastern coast and the Jukbyeon-ri site (7.9-6.9ka calBP) on the eastern coast of the Korean peninsula, that represents the earliest pottery assemblages with reliable radiocarbon dates. Through chemical and isotopic residue analysis, we conclude that the use of pottery at these sites was oriented towards marine resources, supported by lipid biomarkers typical of aquatic organisms and stable carbon isotope values that matched authentic marine reference fats. The findings contrast with other archaeological evidence, which shows that a wider range of available food resources were exploited. Therefore, we conclude pottery was used selectively for processing aquatic organisms perhaps including the rendering of aquatic oils for storage. Early pottery use in Korea is broadly similar to other prehistoric temperate hunter-gatherers, such as in Japan, northern Europe and northern America. However, it is also notable that elaborately decorated red burnished pottery excavated from isolated location at the Jukbyeon-ri site had a different usage pattern, which indicates that division of pottery use by vessel form was established even at this early stage.

Geomorphic and sedimentary responses of the Bull Creek Valley (Southern High Plains, USA) to Pleistocene and Holocene environmental change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arauza, Hanna M.; Simms, Alexander R.; Bement, Leland C.; Carter, Brian J.; Conley, Travis; Woldergauy, Ammanuel; Johnson, William C.; Jaiswal, Priyank

2016-01-01

Fluvial geomorphology and stratigraphy often reflect past environmental and climate conditions. This study examines the response of Bull Creek, a small ephemeral creek in the Oklahoma panhandle, to environmental conditions through the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Fluvial terraces were mapped and their stratigraphy and sedimentology documented throughout the course of the main valley. Based on their elevations, terraces were broadly grouped into a late-Pleistocene fill terrace (T3) and two Holocene fill-cut terrace sets (T2 and T1). Terrace systems are marked by similar stratigraphies recording the general environmental conditions of the time. Sedimentary sequences preserved in terrace fills record the transition from a perennial fluvial system during the late glacial period and the Younger Dryas to a semiarid environment dominated by loess accumulation and punctuated by flood events during the middle to late Holocene. The highest rates of aeolian accumulation within the valley occurred during the early to middle Holocene. Our data provide significant new information regarding the late-Pleistocene and Holocene environmental history for this region, located between the well-studied Southern and Central High Plains of North America.

Pleistocene and Holocene Iberian flora: a complete picture and review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González Sampériz, Penélope

2010-05-01

A detailed analysis of the location and composition of Iberian vegetation types during the whole Pleistocene and Holocene periods shows a complex patched landscape with persistence of different types of ecosystems, even during glacial times. In addition, recent, high-resolution palaeoecological records are changing the traditional picture of post-glacial vegetation succession in the Iberian Peninsula. The main available charcoal and pollen sequences include, coniferous and deciduous forest, steppes, shrublands, savannahs and glacial refugia during the Pleistocene for Meso-thermophytes (phytodiversity reservoirs), in different proportions. This panorama suggests an environmental complexity that relates biotic responses to climate changes forced by Milankovitch cycles, suborbital forcings and by the latitudinal and physiographic particularities of the Iberian Peninsula. Thus, many factors are critical in the course of vegetational developments and strong regional differences are observed since the Early Pleistocene. Currently, the flora of Iberia is located in two biogeographical/climatic regions: the Eurosiberian and the Mediterranean. The first one includes northern and northwestern areas of the peninsula, where post-glacial responses of vegetation are very similar to Central Europe, although with some particularities due to its proximity to both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean region. The second one comprises the main territory of Iberia and shows more complex patterns and singularities, now and in the past. Steppe landscapes dominated extensive areas over all the territory during the cold spells of the Quaternary, especially during the Late Pleistocene up to the Last Glacial Maximum, but differences in composition of the dominant taxa (Compositae versus Artemisia) are observed since the Early Pleistocene, probably related to moisture regional gradients. Coastal shelves and intramountainous valleys, even in continental areas, are spots of floristic

Fossil insects may provide unique information on structures and disturbances in past forest ecosystems - examples from Holocene studies in southern Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemdahl, Geoffrey; Gustavsson, Gunnar; Olsson, Fredrik; Gaillard, Marie-José

2010-05-01

Insects are complex organisms that play an important role in all types of forest ecosystems. Insect remains are often abundant in waterlogged sediments and peat, and the majority of the fossils may be identified to species level, thus contributing with specific information. The occurrence of species feeding or confined to one or a few species of herbaceous plants, shrubs and trees may confirm or improve/refine the interpretations based on pollen and plant macrofossil analyses. Many insects, particularly ground living animals, select open, sun exposed habitats or closed shaded areas. Such indicators are valuable for reconstructions of forest/landscape openness. However, unique information can be provided by fossil insect assemblages. Insect studies carried out at two natural sites in southern Sweden with complete Holocene peat stratigraphies (Olsson and Lemdahl 2009) and a number of sites covering parts of the Holocene (e.g. Gaillard and Lemdahl 1994, Gustavsson et al. 2009) provide strong evidence on changes in forest structure and the occurrence and nature of disturbances. Studies in Britain have yielded similar results (e.g. Whitehouse 2006). Saproxylic beetles indicate the presence of dead wood, which clearly was a more prominent component in ancient woodlands than in present forests, and beetles confined to wood mould suggest the presence of large hollow trees. Finds of pyrophilic species, of which some are very rare in European woodlands today, together with layers of charcoal, suggest that fire was a major disturbance factor during most of the Holocene in southern Sweden. Whereas macroscopic charcoal fragments indicate local fires, the presence of pyrophilic insects is an indication of continuous fire activity at the regional spatial scale. Remains of dung beetles indicate extensive grazing by megaherbivores during early Holocene, and more intensive grazing during late Holocene, whereas such indicators are absent from mid Holocene records, which correlates