Early mortality and complications in hospitalized adult Californians with acute myeloid leukaemia.

PubMed

Ho, Gwendolyn; Jonas, Brian A; Li, Qian; Brunson, Ann; Wun, Ted; Keegan, Theresa H M

2017-06-01

Few studies have evaluated the impact of complications, sociodemographic and clinical factors on early mortality (death ≤60 days from diagnosis) in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) patients. Using data from the California Cancer Registry linked to hospital discharge records from 1999 to 2012, we identified patients aged ≥15 years with AML who received inpatient treatment (N = 6359). Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association of complications with early mortality, adjusting for sociodemographic factors, comorbidities and hospital type. Early mortality decreased over time (25·3%, 1999-2000; 16·8%, 2011-2012) across all age groups, but was higher in older patients (6·9%, 15-39, 11·4%, 40-54, 18·6% 55-65, and 35·8%, >65 years). Major bleeding [Odds ratio (OR) 1·5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3-1·9], liver failure (OR 1·9, 95% CI 1·1-3·1), renal failure (OR 2·4, 95% CI 2·0-2·9), respiratory failure (OR 7·6, 95% CI 6·2-9·3) and cardiac arrest (OR 15·8, 95% CI 8·7-28·6) were associated with early mortality. Higher early mortality was also associated with single marital status, low neighbourhood socioeconomic status, lack of health insurance and comorbidities. Treatment at National Cancer Institute-designated cancer centres was associated with lower early mortality (OR 0·5, 95% CI 0·4-0·6). In conclusion, organ dysfunction, hospital type and sociodemographic factors impact early mortality. Further studies should investigate how differences in healthcare delivery affect early mortality. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Toward an integrated storm surge application: ESA Storm Surge project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Boram; Donlon, Craig; Arino, Olivier

2010-05-01

Storm surges and their associated coastal inundation are major coastal marine hazards, both in tropical and extra-tropical areas. As sea level rises due to climate change, the impact of storm surges and associated extreme flooding may increase in low-lying countries and harbour cities. Of the 33 world cities predicted to have at least 8 million people by 2015, at least 21 of them are coastal including 8 of the 10 largest. They are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards including storm surges. Coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems depend on the crosscutting cooperation of different scientific disciplines and user communities. An integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting offers an optimal strategy for building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation. The Earth Observation (EO) information from satellites has demonstrated high potential to enhanced coastal hazard monitoring, analysis, and forecasting; the GOCE geoid data can help calculating accurate positions of tide gauge stations within the GLOSS network. ASAR images has demonstrated usefulness in analysing hydrological situation in coastal zones with timely manner, when hazardous events occur. Wind speed and direction, which is the key parameters for storm surge forecasting and hindcasting, can be derived by using scatterometer data. The current issue is, although great deal of useful EO information and application tools exist, that sufficient user information on EO data availability is missing and that easy access supported by user applications and documentation is highly required. Clear documentation on the user requirements in support of improved storm surge forecasting and risk assessment is also needed at the present. The paper primarily addresses the requirements for data, models/technologies, and operational skills, based on the results from the recent Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges (www

Early mortality syndrome in Great Lakes salmonines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Honeyfield, Dale C.; Brown, Scott B.; Fitzsimons, John D.; Tillitt, Donald E.

2005-01-01

Early mortality syndrome (EMS) is the termused to describe an embryonic mortality affectingthe offspring of salmonines (coho salmonOnco-rhynchus kisutch, Chinook salmonOncorhynchustshawytscha, steelhead [anadromous rainbow troutOncorhynchus mykiss], brown troutSalmo trutta,and lake trout,Salvelinus namaycush) in LakesMichigan and Ontario and, to a lesser extent, LakesHuron and Erie (Marcquenski and Brown 1997).Clinical signs of EMS include loss of equilibrium,a spiral swimming pattern, lethargy, hyperexcit-ability, hemorrhage, and death between hatch andfirst feeding. Early mortality syndrome was ob-served as far back as the 1960s in Great Lakessalmonines (Marcquenski and Brown 1997; Fitz-simons et al. 1999) and is of concern because mor-tality has been high in recent years (Wolgamoodet al. 2005; all 2005 citations are this issue). Stocksof Atlantic salmonSalmo salarfrom the FingerLakes and the Baltic Sea also exhibit a similarearly life stage mortality, called Cayuga syndrome(Fisher et al. 1995) and M74 (Bo ̈ rjeson and Norr-gren 1997), respectively. Low egg thiamine levelsand enhanced survival following thiamine treat-ments are common characteristics of EMS, CayugaSyndrome, and M74 (Fitzsimons et al. 1999). Be-cause the deficiency does not appear to be the re-sult of inadequate dietary thiamine (Fitzsimons and Brown 1998), investigators have hypothesizedthat the presence of some thiaminolytic factors inthe diet may reduce the bioavailability of thiamine,either by destroying it or converting it to an in-active analog or thiamine antagonist (Fisher et al.1996; Fitzsimons et al. 1999).

Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

2015-12-01

When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

Early onset epilepsy is associated with increased mortality: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Moseley, Brian D.; Wirrell, Elaine C.; Wong-Kisiel, Lily C.; Nickels, Katherine

2013-01-01

SUMMARY We examined mortality in early onset (age <12 months) epilepsy in a population-based group of children. Children with early onset epilepsy were significantly more likely to die (case fatality, CF 8/60 versus 8/407, p<0.001; mortality rate, MR 14.5/1000 versus 2/1000 person years; standardized mortality ratio, SMR 22.25 versus 5.67). Mortality was greater in children with malignant neonatal (age <1 month) epilepsy (CF 4/12 versus 12/450, p<0.001; MR 54/1000 person years versus 2.7/1000 person year; SMR 46.55 versus 7.22). Given that only 1/8 early onset epilepsy deaths was seizure-related, mortality appears to be more affected by underlying etiology. PMID:23582606

Risk factors for early infant mortality in Sarlahi district, Nepal.

PubMed Central

Katz, Joanne; West, Keith P.; Khatry, Subarna K.; Christian, Parul; LeClerq, Steven C.; Pradhan, Elizabeth Kimbrough; Shrestha, Sharada Ram

2003-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Early infant mortality has not declined as rapidly as child mortality in many countries. Identification of risk factors for early infant mortality may help inform the design of intervention strategies. METHODS: Over the period 1994-97, 15,469 live-born, singleton infants in rural Nepal were followed to 24 weeks of age to identify risk factors for mortality within 0-7 days, 8-28 days, and 4-24 weeks after the birth. FINDINGS: In multivariate models, maternal and paternal education reduced mortality between 4 and 24 weeks only: odds ratios (OR) 0.28 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.12-0.66) and 0.63 (95% CI = 0.44-0.88), respectively. Miscarriage in the previous pregnancy predicted mortality in the first week of life (OR = 1.98, 95% CI = 1.37-2.87), whereas prior child deaths increased the risk of post-neonatal death (OR = 1.85, 95% CI 1.24-2.75). A larger maternal mid-upper arm circumference reduced the risk of infant death during the first week of life (OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.81-0.95). Infants of women who did not receive any tetanus vaccinations during pregnancy or who had severe illness during the third trimester were more likely to die in the neonatal period. Maternal mortality was strongly associated with infant mortality (OR = 6.43, 95% CI = 2.35-17.56 at 0-7 days; OR = 11.73, 95% CI = 3.82-36.00 at 8-28 days; and OR = 51.68, 95% CI = 20.26-131.80 at 4-24 weeks). CONCLUSION: Risk factors for early infant mortality varied with the age of the infant. Factors amenable to intervention included efforts aimed at maternal morbidity and mortality and increased arm circumference during pregnancy. PMID:14758431

A never-ending succession of epidemics? Mortality in early-modern York.

PubMed

Galley, C

1994-04-01

Early-modern cities are often perceived to be centres of high mortality and under constant siege from a barrage of epidemics. However, few urban mortality rates have been calculated and by employing parish register evidence from the regional capital of York, the thesis that the city was subjected to continual sudden increases in mortality can be firmly rejected. Infant mortality was high but remained virtually constant between 1561 and 1700. About a quarter of all infants did not survive to reach their first birthday and neonatal mortality was especially severe. From the mid-seventeenth century a series of epidemics increased child mortality although overall levels of mortality were not significantly affected. Relatively little can be said about adult mortality and apart from two periods of 'crisis' mortality there is little to suggest that adults were greatly affected by epidemics. Indeed, for many adults the urban environment appears to have posed no great threat to health and most could look forward to a relatively long life in the city. York's mortality regime was very similar to that of the smaller market town of Gainsborough where high levels of mortality remained stable throughout much of the early-modern period.

Exogenous determinants of early-life conditions, and mortality later in life.

PubMed

van den Berg, Gerard J; Doblhammer, Gabriele; Christensen, Kaare

2009-05-01

We analyze causal effects of conditions early in life on the individual mortality rate later in life. Conditions early in life are captured by transitory features of the macro-environment around birth, notably the state of the business cycle around birth, but also food price deviations, weather indicators, and demographic indicators. We argue that these features can only affect high-age mortality by way of the individual early-life conditions. Moreover, they are exogenous from the individual point of view, which is a methodological advantage compared to the use of unique characteristics of the newborn individual or his or her family or household as early-life indicators. We collected national annual time-series data on the above-mentioned indicators, and we combine these to the individual data records from the Danish Twin Registry covering births in 1873-1906. The empirical analyses (mostly based on the estimation of duration models) indicate a significant negative causal effect of economic conditions early in life on individual mortality rates at higher ages. If the national economic performance in the year of birth exceeds its trend value (i.e., if the business cycle is favorable) then the mortality rate later in life is lower. The implied effect on the median lifetime of those who survive until age 35 is about 10 months. A systematic empirical exploration of all macro-indicators reveals that economic conditions in the first years after birth also affect mortality rates later in life.

Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krien, Y.; Dudon, B.; Roger, J.; Zahibo, N.

2015-01-01

Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100 and 1000 year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC-SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40-60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows to obtain storm surge level maps that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krien, Y.; Dudon, B.; Roger, J.; Zahibo, N.

2015-08-01

Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100-year and 1000-year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC-SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40-60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but found to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows storm surge level maps to be obtained that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

Distance to Care, Facility Delivery and Early Neonatal Mortality in Malawi and Zambia

PubMed Central

Lohela, Terhi J.; Campbell, Oona M. R.; Gabrysch, Sabine

2012-01-01

Background Globally, approximately 3 million babies die annually within their first month. Access to adequate care at birth is needed to reduce newborn as well as maternal deaths. We explore the influence of distance to delivery care and of level of care on early neonatal mortality in rural Zambia and Malawi, the influence of distance (and level of care) on facility delivery, and the influence of facility delivery on early neonatal mortality. Methods and Findings National Health Facility Censuses were used to classify the level of obstetric care for 1131 Zambian and 446 Malawian delivery facilities. Straight-line distances to facilities were calculated for 3771 newborns in the 2007 Zambia DHS and 8842 newborns in the 2004 Malawi DHS. There was no association between distance to care and early neonatal mortality in Malawi (OR 0.97, 95%CI 0.58–1.60), while in Zambia, further distance (per 10 km) was associated with lower mortality (OR 0.55, 95%CI 0.35–0.87). The level of care provided in the closest facility showed no association with early neonatal mortality in either Malawi (OR 1.02, 95%CI 0.90–1.16) or Zambia (OR 1.02, 95%CI 0.82–1.26). In both countries, distance to care was strongly associated with facility use for delivery (Malawi: OR 0.35 per 10km, 95%CI 0.26–0.46). All results are adjusted for available confounders. Early neonatal mortality did not differ by frequency of facility delivery in the community. Conclusions While better geographic access and higher level of care were associated with more frequent facility delivery, there was no association with lower early neonatal mortality. This could be due to low quality of care for newborns at health facilities, but differential underreporting of early neonatal deaths in the DHS is an alternative explanation. Improved data sources are needed to monitor progress in the provision of obstetric and newborn care and its impact on mortality. PMID:23300599

Progression of the 2011-2012 Surge of Bering Glacier and Bagley Ice Field, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herzfeld, U. C.; McDonald, B.; Stachura, M.; Hale, R.; Trantow, T.; Weltman, A.; Chen, P.

2012-12-01

Bering Glacier, Alaska, started a surge in late spring 2011. The surge reached the ice front in May 2011 and extended into Bagley Ice Field by summer 2011. New surge-related crevassing was observed in July 2012. We collected aerial observations, including systematic videographic and photographic imagery, GPS data and laser altimeter data in September 2011 and in July 2012. In this talk, an analysis of surge progression and comparison to the early, mature and late stages of the 1993-1995 surge of Bering Glacier and Bagley Ice Field will be presented. A suite of approaches will be used to this end: Analysis of elevation changes based on CryoSat data, 2009 and 2010 IceBridge data and 2011 and 2012 laser altimeter data collected by our group, geostatistical classification of crevasse types based on imagery, classification of laser altimeter data and analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery (Worldview and GEOS).

7 CFR 58.218 - Surge tanks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Surge tanks. 58.218 Section 58.218 Agriculture....218 Surge tanks. If surge tanks are used for hot milk, and temperatures of product including foam being held in the surge tank during processing, is not maintained at a minimum of 150 °F, then two or...

7 CFR 58.218 - Surge tanks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Surge tanks. 58.218 Section 58.218 Agriculture....218 Surge tanks. If surge tanks are used for hot milk, and temperatures of product including foam being held in the surge tank during processing, is not maintained at a minimum of 150 °F, then two or...

7 CFR 58.218 - Surge tanks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Surge tanks. 58.218 Section 58.218 Agriculture....218 Surge tanks. If surge tanks are used for hot milk, and temperatures of product including foam being held in the surge tank during processing, is not maintained at a minimum of 150 °F, then two or...

7 CFR 58.218 - Surge tanks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Surge tanks. 58.218 Section 58.218 Agriculture....218 Surge tanks. If surge tanks are used for hot milk, and temperatures of product including foam being held in the surge tank during processing, is not maintained at a minimum of 150 °F, then two or...

7 CFR 58.218 - Surge tanks.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Surge tanks. 58.218 Section 58.218 Agriculture....218 Surge tanks. If surge tanks are used for hot milk, and temperatures of product including foam being held in the surge tank during processing, is not maintained at a minimum of 150 °F, then two or...

The effect of early-life education on later-life mortality.

PubMed

Black, Dan A; Hsu, Yu-Chieh; Taylor, Lowell J

2015-12-01

Many studies link cross-state variation in compulsory schooling laws to early-life educational attainment, thereby providing a plausible way to investigate the causal impact of education on various lifetime outcomes. We use this strategy to estimate the effect of education on older-age mortality of individuals born in the early twentieth century U.S. Our key innovation is to combine U.S. Census data and the complete Vital Statistics records to form precise mortality estimates by sex, birth cohort, and birth state. In turn we find that virtually all of the variation in these mortality rates is captured by cohort effects and state effects alone, making it impossible to reliably tease out any additional impact due to changing educational attainment induced by state-level changes in compulsory schooling. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups.

PubMed

Jin, Xue; Shi, Xiaoxia; Gao, Jintian; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

2018-03-27

Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China's coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

PubMed Central

Shi, Xiaoxia; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

2018-01-01

Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation. PMID:29584628

Comparison of the 2008-2011 and 1993-1995 Surges of Bering Glacier, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molnia, B. F.; Angeli, K.

2011-12-01

The 1993-1995 surge of Bering Glacier, Earth's largest surging temperate glacier, was intensively studied. A new surge, which began prior to March 9, 2009, was still active in early August 2011. As was the 1993-1995 surge, the current surge is being studied using multiple remote sensing and ground-based methodologies. The wealth of observations available of both surges permit comparisons to be drawn about similarities and differences regarding processes, timing, intensities, and related topics. For more than a year prior to each surge, the intensity of calving and the rate of terminus retreat in Tashalich Arm increased dramatically, approaching 4 m/d in late 2010. This was abruptly followed by a significant terminus advance. In the current surge, maximum advance rates exceeded 19 m/d between March 18 and May 10, 2011. Through July 20, maximum terminus advance approached 3.2 km with velocities above 8 m/d. Similar rates applied in the earlier surge. Each surge has resulted in a rapid and significant advance of the central Bering Lobe's terminus into Vitus Lake. The terminus advance results from the transfer of a substantial volume of ice from the Bagley Ice Valley into the expanding piedmont lobe. In both surges, conspicuous evidence of tens of meters of glacier surface lowering is visible on the south wall of Juniper Island. In the 1993-1995 surge, terminus advance between October 17, 1993 and May 16, 1994 was nearly 7.8 km, an average advance rate of more than 36 m/d. With the current surge, between January 8 and 14, 2011, the terminus advanced a maximum of 125 m, averaging nearly 21 m/d. By July 11, 2011, maximum velocities still approached 15 m per day, with maximum ice displacements of nearly 2 km and a maximum terminus advance of 1.7 km. In the 1993-1995 surge, the first evidence of surge activity was observed in April 1993, the development of a fractured ice bulge on the northwest side of the Grindle Hills. The surge front reached Bering's terminus at the end

Availability of a pediatric trauma center in a disaster surge decreases triage time of the pediatric surge population: a population kinetics model.

PubMed

Barthel, Erik R; Pierce, James R; Goodhue, Catherine J; Ford, Henri R; Grikscheit, Tracy C; Upperman, Jeffrey S

2011-10-12

The concept of disaster surge has arisen in recent years to describe the phenomenon of severely increased demands on healthcare systems resulting from catastrophic mass casualty events (MCEs) such as natural disasters and terrorist attacks. The major challenge in dealing with a disaster surge is the efficient triage and utilization of the healthcare resources appropriate to the magnitude and character of the affected population in terms of its demographics and the types of injuries that have been sustained. In this paper a deterministic population kinetics model is used to predict the effect of the availability of a pediatric trauma center (PTC) upon the response to an arbitrary disaster surge as a function of the rates of pediatric patients' admission to adult and pediatric centers and the corresponding discharge rates of these centers. We find that adding a hypothetical pediatric trauma center to the response documented in an historical example (the Israeli Defense Forces field hospital that responded to the Haiti earthquake of 2010) would have allowed for a significant increase in the overall rate of admission of the pediatric surge cohort. This would have reduced the time to treatment in this example by approximately half. The time needed to completely treat all children affected by the disaster would have decreased by slightly more than a third, with the caveat that the PTC would have to have been approximately as fast as the adult center in discharging its patients. Lastly, if disaster death rates from other events reported in the literature are included in the model, availability of a PTC would result in a relative mortality risk reduction of 37%. Our model provides a mathematical justification for aggressive inclusion of PTCs in planning for disasters by public health agencies.

Ability of regional hospitals to meet projected avian flu pandemic surge capacity requirements.

PubMed

Ten Eyck, Raymond P

2008-01-01

Hospital surge capacity is a crucial part of community disaster preparedness planning, which focuses on the requirements for additional beds, equipment, personnel, and special capabilities. The scope and urgency of these requirements must be balanced with a practical approach addressing cost and space concerns. Renewed concerns for infectious disease threats, particularly from a potential avian flu pandemic perspective, have emphasized the need to be prepared for a prolonged surge that could last six to eight weeks. The surge capacity that realistically would be generated by the cumulative Greater Dayton Area Hospital Association (GDAHA) plan is sufficient to meet the demands of an avian influenza pandemic as predicted by the [US] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) models. Using a standardized data form, surge response plans for each hospital in the GDAHA were assessed. The cumulative results were compared to the demand projected for an avian influenza pandemic using the CDC's FluAid and FluSurge models. The cumulative GDAHA capacity is sufficient to meet the projected demand for bed space, intensive care unit beds, ventilators, morgue space, and initial personal protective equipment (PPE) use. There is a shortage of negative pressure rooms, some basic equipment, and neuraminidase inhibitors. Many facilities lack a complete set of written surge policies, including screening plans to segregate contaminated patients and staff prior to entering the hospital. Few hospitals have agreements with nursing homes or home healthcare agencies to provide care for patients discharged in order to clear surge beds. If some of the assumptions in the CDC's models are changed to match the morbidity and mortality rates reported from the 1918 pandemic, the surge capacity of GDAHA facilities would not meet the projected demand. The GDAHA hospitals should test their regional distributors' ability to resupply PPE for multiple facilities simultaneously. Facilities should

Is a sedentary lifestyle an independent predictor for hospital and early mortality after elective cardiac surgery?

PubMed

Noyez, L; Biemans, I; Verkroost, M; van Swieten, H

2013-10-01

This study evaluates whether a sedentary lifestyle is an independent predictor for increased mortality after elective cardiac surgery. Three thousand one hundred fifty patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery between January 2007 and June 2012 completed preoperatively the Corpus Christi Heart Project questionnaire concerning physical activity (PA). Based on this questionnaire, 1815 patients were classified as active and 1335 patients were classified as sedentary. The endpoints of the study were hospital mortality and early mortality. The study population had a mean age of 69.7 ± 10.1 (19-95) years and a mean logistic EuroSCORE risk of 5.1 ± 5.6 (0.88-73.8). Sedentary patients were significantly older (p = 0.001), obese (p = 0.001), had a higher EuroSCORE risk (p = 0.001), and a higher percentage of complications. Hospital mortality (1.1 % versus 0.4 % (p = 0.014)) and early mortality (1.5 % versus 0.6 % (p = 0.006)) were significantly higher in the sedentary group compared with the active group. However, a sedentary lifestyle was not identified as an independent predictor for hospital mortality (p = 0.61) or early mortality (p = 0.70). Sedentary patients were older, obese and had a higher EuroSCORE risk. They had significantly more postoperative complications, higher hospital mortality and early mortality. Despite these results, sedentary behaviour could not be identified as an independent predictor for hospital or early mortality.

The Propagation of a Surge Front on Bering Glacier, Alaska, 2001-2011

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turrin, James; Forster, Richard R.; Larsen, Chris; Sauber, Jeanne

2013-01-01

Bering Glacier, Alaska, USA, has a 20 year surge cycle, with its most recent surge reaching the terminus in 2011. To study this most recent activity a time series of ice velocity maps was produced by applying optical feature-tracking methods to Landsat-7 ETM+ imagery spanning 2001-11. The velocity maps show a yearly increase in ice surface velocity associated with the down-glacier movement of a surge front. In 2008/09 the maximum ice surface velocity was 1.5 plus or minus 0.017 kilometers per a in the mid-ablation zone, which decreased to 1.2 plus or minus 0.015 kilometers per a in 2009/10 in the lower ablation zone, and then increased to nearly 4.4 plus or minus 0.03 kilometers per a in summer 2011 when the surge front reached the glacier terminus. The surge front propagated down-glacier as a kinematic wave at an average rate of 4.4 plus or minus 2.0 kilometers per a between September 2002 and April 2009, then accelerated to 13.9 plus or minus 2.0 kilometers per a as it entered the piedmont lobe between April 2009 and September 2010. Thewave seems to have initiated near the confluence of Bering Glacier and Bagley Ice Valley as early as 2001, and the surge was triggered in 2008 further down-glacier in the mid-ablation zone after the wave passed an ice reservoir area.

Study of storm surge trends in typhoon-prone coastal areas based on observations and surge-wave coupled simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xingru; Li, Mingjie; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou; Yang, Hongwei

2018-06-01

This is a study of the storm surge trends in some of the typhoon-prone coastal areas of China. An unstructured-grid, storm surge-wave-tide coupled model was established for the coastal areas of Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces. The coupled model has a high resolution in coastal areas, and the simulated results compared well with the in situ observations and satellite altimeter data. The typhoon-induced storm surges along the coast of the study areas were simulated based on the established coupled model for the past 20 years (1997-2016). The simulated results were used to analyze the trends of the storm surges in the study area. The extreme storm surge trends along the central coast of Fujian Province reached up to 0.06 m/y, significant at the 90% confidence level. The duration of the storm surges greater than 1.0 and 0.7 m had an increasing trend along the coastal area of northern Fujian Province, significant at confidence levels of 70%-91%. The simulated trends of the extreme storm surges were also validated by observations from two tide gauge stations. Further studies show that the correlation coefficient (RTE) between the duration of the storm surge greater than 1 m and the annual ENSO index can reach as high as 0.62, significant at the 99% confidence level. This occurred in a location where the storm surge trend was not significant. For the areas with significant increasing storm surge trends, RTE was small and not significant. This study identified the storm surge trends for the full complex coastline of the study area. These results are useful both for coastal management by the government and for coastal engineering design.

In-hospital and 1-year mortality in patients undergoing early surgery for prosthetic valve endocarditis.

PubMed

Lalani, Tahaniyat; Chu, Vivian H; Park, Lawrence P; Cecchi, Enrico; Corey, G Ralph; Durante-Mangoni, Emanuele; Fowler, Vance G; Gordon, David; Grossi, Paolo; Hannan, Margaret; Hoen, Bruno; Muñoz, Patricia; Rizk, Hussien; Kanj, Souha S; Selton-Suty, Christine; Sexton, Daniel J; Spelman, Denis; Ravasio, Veronica; Tripodi, Marie Françoise; Wang, Andrew

2013-09-09

There are limited prospective, controlled data evaluating survival in patients receiving early surgery vs medical therapy for prosthetic valve endocarditis (PVE). To determine the in-hospital and 1-year mortality in patients with PVE who undergo valve replacement during index hospitalization compared with patients who receive medical therapy alone, after controlling for survival and treatment selection bias. Participants were enrolled between June 2000 and December 2006 in the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study (ICE-PCS), a prospective, multinational, observational cohort of patients with infective endocarditis. Patients hospitalized with definite right- or left-sided PVE were included in the analysis. We evaluated the effect of treatment assignment on mortality, after adjusting for biases using a Cox proportional hazards model that included inverse probability of treatment weighting and surgery as a time-dependent covariate. The cohort was stratified by probability (propensity) for surgery, and outcomes were compared between the treatment groups within each stratum. Valve replacement during index hospitalization (early surgery) vs medical therapy. In-hospital and 1-year mortality. Of the 1025 patients with PVE, 490 patients (47.8%) underwent early surgery and 535 individuals (52.2%) received medical therapy alone. Compared with medical therapy, early surgery was associated with lower in-hospital mortality in the unadjusted analysis and after controlling for treatment selection bias (in-hospital mortality: hazard ratio [HR], 0.44 [95% CI, 0.38-0.52] and lower 1-year mortality: HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.49-0.67]). The lower mortality associated with surgery did not persist after adjustment for survivor bias (in-hospital mortality: HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.76-1.07] and 1-year mortality: HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.89-1.23]). Subgroup analysis indicated a lower in-hospital mortality with early surgery in the highest surgical propensity quintile (21

The eSurge-Venice project: how satellite data can improve the storm surge forecasting in the northern Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zecchetto, Stefano; Vignudelli, Stefano; Donlon, Craig; De Biasio, Francesco; Della Valle, Antonio; Umgiesser, Georg; Bajo, Marco

The Data User Element (DUE) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) is funding two projects (eSurge and eSurge-Venice) aimed to demonstrate the improvement of the storm surge forecasting through the use of Earth Observation (EO) data. eSurge-Venice (http://www.esurge-venice.eu/), is specifically focused on the Gulf of Venice, northern Adriatic Sea. The project objectives are: a) Select a number of Storm Surge Events occurred in the Venice lagoon since 1999; b) Provide the available satellite EO data related to the Storm Surge Events, mainly satellite winds and altimeter data, as well as all the available in-situ data and model forecasts; c) Provide a demonstration Near Real Time service (eSurge-Venice live) of EO data products and services in support of operational and experimental forecasting and warning services; d) Run a number of re-analysis cases, both for historical and contemporary storm surge events, to demonstrate the usefulness of EO data. Present storm surge models use atmospheric model wind fields as forcing. These are know to underestimate the wind in small basins like the Adriatic Sea (~1000 km by 300 km), where the orography plays an important role in shaping the winds. Therefore there is the need to verify and tune the atmospheric model wind fields used in the storm surge modeling, an activity which can easily done using satellite scatterometer winds. The project is now in the middle of his life, and promising preliminary results have been achieved using satellite scatterometer wind data to forge the atmospheric model wind fields forcing the storm surge model. This contribution will present the methodology adopted to tune the model wind fields according to the bias with scatterometer winds and the improvements induced in the storm surge model hindcast.

Storm surge and tidal range energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Matthew; Angeloudis, Athanasios; Robins, Peter; Evans, Paul; Neill, Simon

2017-04-01

The need to reduce carbon-based energy sources whilst increasing renewable energy forms has led to concerns of intermittency within a national electricity supply strategy. The regular rise and fall of the tide makes prediction almost entirely deterministic compared to other stochastic renewable energy forms; therefore, tidal range energy is often stated as a predictable and firm renewable energy source. Storm surge is the term used for the non-astronomical forcing of tidal elevation, and is synonymous with coastal flooding because positive storm surges can elevate water-levels above the height of coastal flood defences. We hypothesis storm surges will affect the reliability of the tidal range energy resource; with negative surge events reducing the tidal range, and conversely, positive surge events increasing the available resource. Moreover, tide-surge interaction, which results in positive storm surges more likely to occur on a flooding tide, will reduce the annual tidal range energy resource estimate. Water-level data (2000-2012) at nine UK tide gauges, where the mean tidal amplitude is above 2.5m and thus suitable for tidal-range energy development (e.g. Bristol Channel), were used to predict tidal range power with a 0D modelling approach. Storm surge affected the annual resource estimate by between -5% to +3%, due to inter-annual variability. Instantaneous power output were significantly affected (Normalised Root Mean Squared Error: 3%-8%, Scatter Index: 15%-41%) with spatial variability and variability due to operational strategy. We therefore find a storm surge affects the theoretical reliability of tidal range power, such that a prediction system may be required for any future electricity generation scenario that includes large amounts of tidal-range energy; however, annual resource estimation from astronomical tides alone appears sufficient for resource estimation. Future work should investigate water-level uncertainties on the reliability and

Tropical cyclone induced asymmetry of sea level surge and fall and its presentation in a storm surge model with parametric wind fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Machuan; Xie, Lian; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.

The asymmetry of tropical cyclone induced maximum coastal sea level rise (positive surge) and fall (negative surge) is studied using a three-dimensional storm surge model. It is found that the negative surge induced by offshore winds is more sensitive to wind speed and direction changes than the positive surge by onshore winds. As a result, negative surge is inherently more difficult to forecast than positive surge since there is uncertainty in tropical storm wind forecasts. The asymmetry of negative and positive surge under parametric wind forcing is more apparent in shallow water regions. For tropical cyclones with fixed central pressure, the surge asymmetry increases with decreasing storm translation speed. For those with the same translation speed, a weaker tropical cyclone is expected to gain a higher AI (asymmetry index) value though its induced maximum surge and fall are smaller. With fixed RMW (radius of maximum wind), the relationship between central pressure and AI is heterogeneous and depends on the value of RMW. Tropical cyclone's wind inflow angle can also affect surge asymmetry. A set of idealized cases as well as two historic tropical cyclones are used to illustrate the surge asymmetry.

Observing storm surges from satellite altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Guoqi

2016-07-01

Storm surges can cause catastrophic damage to properties and loss of life in coastal communities. Thus it is important to enhance our capabilities of observing and forecasting storm surges for mitigating damage and loss. In this presentation we show examples of observing storm surges around the world using nadir satellite altimetry, during Hurricane Sandy, Igor, and Isaac, as well as other cyclone events. The satellite observations are evaluated against tide-gauge observations and discussed for dynamic mechanisms. We also show the potential of a new wide-swath altimetry mission, the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), for observing storm surges.

Premorbid (early life) IQ and later mortality risk: systematic review.

PubMed

Batty, G David; Deary, Ian J; Gottfredson, Linda S

2007-04-01

Studies of middle-aged and particularly older-aged adults found that those with higher scores on tests of IQ (cognitive function) had lower rates of later mortality. Interpretation of such findings potentially is hampered by the problem of reverse causality: such somatic diseases as diabetes or hypertension, common in older adults, can decrease cognitive function. Studies that provide extended follow-up of the health experience of individuals who had their (premorbid) IQ assessed in childhood and/or early adulthood minimize this concern. The purpose of the present report is to systematically locate, evaluate, and interpret the findings of all such studies. We systematically identified individual-level studies linking premorbid IQ with later mortality by using four approaches: search of electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PSYCHINFO); scrutiny of the reference sections of identified reports; search of our own files; and contact with researchers in the field. Study quality was assessed by using predefined criteria. Nine cohort studies met the inclusion criteria. Overall, study quality was moderate. All reports showed an inverse IQ-mortality relation; i.e., higher IQ scores were associated with decreased mortality risk. The nature of this relation (i.e., dose-response or threshold) and whether it differs by sex was unclear. The IQ-mortality association did not appear to be explained by reverse causality or selection bias. Confounding by other early-life factors also did not seem to explain the association, although some studies were not well characterized in this regard. Adult socioeconomic position appeared to mediate the IQ-mortality association in some studies, but this was not a universal finding. In all studies, higher IQ in the first two decades of life was related to lower rates of total mortality in middle to late adulthood. Some plausible mechanistic pathways exist, but further examination is required. The precise nature of the IQ-mortality relation

Conductive surge testing of circuits and systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richman, P.

1980-01-01

Techniques are given for conductive surge testing of powered electronic equipment. The correct definitions of common and normal mode are presented. Testing requires not only spike-surge generators with a suitable range of open-circuit voltage and short-circuit current waveshapes, but also appropriate means, termed couplers, for connecting test surges to the equipment under test. Key among coupler design considerations is minimization of fail positives resulting from reduction in delivered surge energy due to the coupler. Back-filters and the lines on which they are necessary, are considered as well as ground-fault and ground potential rise. A method for monitoring delivered and resulting surge waves is mentioned.

A High Density Storm Surge Monitoring Network: Evaluating the Ability of Wetland Vegetation to Reduce Storm Surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawler, S.; Denton, M.; Ferreira, C.

2013-12-01

Recent tropical storm activity in the Chesapeake Bay and a potential increase in the predicted frequency and magnitude of weather systems have drawn increased attention to the need for improved tools for monitoring, modeling and predicting the magnitude of storm surge, coastal flooding and the respective damage to infrastructure and wetland ecosystems. Among other forms of flood protection, it is believed that coastal wetlands and vegetation can act as a natural barrier that slows hurricane flooding, helping to reduce the impact of storm surge. However, quantifying the relationship between the physical process of storm surge and its attenuation by wetland vegetation is an active area of research and the deployment of in-situ measuring devices is crucial to data collection efforts in this field. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) mobile storm-surge network has already successfully provided a framework for evaluating hurricane induced storm surge water levels on a regional scale through the use of in-situ devices installed in areas affected by storm surge during extreme events. Based on the success of the USGS efforts, in this study we adapted the monitoring network to cover relatively small areas of wetlands and coastal vegetation with an increased density of sensors. Groups of 6 to 10 water level sensors were installed in sites strategically selected in three locations on the Virginia coast of the lower Chesapeake Bay area to monitor different types of vegetation and the resulting hydrodynamic patterns (open coast and inland waters). Each group of sensors recorded time series data of water levels for both astronomical tide circulation and meteorological induced surge. Field campaigns were carried out to survey characteristics of vegetation contributing to flow resistance (i.e. height, diameter and stem density) and mapped using high precision GPS. A geodatabase containing data from field campaigns will support the development and calibration of

Extreme Storm Surges in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goennert, G.; Buß, Th.; Mueller, O.; Thumm, S.

2009-04-01

Extreme Storm Surges in the North Sea Gabriele Gönnert, Olaf Müller, Thomas Buß and Sigrid Thumm Climate Change will cause a rise of the sea level and probably more frequent and more violent storm surges. This has serious consequences for the safety of people as well as for their values and assets behind the dikes. It is therefore inevitable to first assess how sea level rise and an extreme storm surge event designes. In a second step it is possible to determine the risk for specific locations and develop strategies. The Project XtremRisk - Extreme Storm Surges at the North Sea Coast and in Estuaries. Risk calculation and risk strategies, funded by the German Federal Government will help answering these questions. The „Source-Pathway-Receptor" Concept will be used as a basis for risk analysis and development of new strategies. The Project offers methods to assess the development of extreme events under the conditions of today. Under conditions reflecting the climate change it will be tried to design an extreme event. For these three main points will be considered: a) Analysis and calculation of each factor, which produce a storm surge and its maximum level occurring in the last 100 years. These are: - maximum surge level: surge (due to the wind), - influence of the tide and the interaction between surge and tide, - influence of external surges , b) The hydrodynamics of a storm surge cause nonlinear effects in the interaction of the named factors. These factors and effects will both be taken into account to calculate the magnitude of the extreme storm surge. This step is very complex and need additional examination by numerical models. c) Analysis of the different scenarios to mean sea level rise and to the increase of wind speed due to the climate change. The presentation will introduce methods and show first results of the analysis of extreme events and the mean sea level rise.

Early and late mortality of spontaneous hemorrhagic transformation of ischemic stroke.

PubMed

D'Amelio, Marco; Terruso, Valeria; Famoso, Giorgia; Di Benedetto, Norma; Realmuto, Sabrina; Valentino, Francesca; Ragonese, Paolo; Savettieri, Giovanni; Aridon, Paolo

2014-04-01

Hemorrhagic transformation (HT), a complication of ischemic stroke (IS), might influence patient's prognosis. Our aim is to evaluate, in a hospital-based series of patients not treated with thrombolysis, the relationship between HT and mortality. We compared mortality of individuals with spontaneous HT with that of individuals without. Medical records of patients diagnosed with anterior IS were retrospectively reviewed. Outcome measures were 30- and 90-day survival after IS onset. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to construct survival curves. Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratio (HR) for the main outcome measure (death). HT was stratified in hemorrhagic infarction and parenchymal hematoma (PH). We also evaluated the relationship between HT and the main mortality risk factors (gender, age, premorbid status, severity of stroke, and radiological features). Thirty days from stroke onset, 8.1% (19 of 233) of patients died. At multivariate analysis, PH (HR: 7.7, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.1, 27.8) and low level of consciousness at admission (HR: 5.0, 95% CI: 1.3, 18.6) were significantly associated with death. At 3-month follow-up, mortality rate was 12.1% (28 of 232). At multivariate analysis, large infarct size (HR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.2, 6.0) and HT (HR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.0, 5.4) were independent risk factors for mortality. Parenchymal hematoma was, however, the strongest predictor of late mortality (HR: 7.9, 95% CI: 2.9, 21.4). Neurological status and infarct size play a significant role, respectively, in early and late mortality after IS. Parenchymal hematoma independently predicts both early and late mortality. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early mortality in multiple myeloma: the time-dependent impact of comorbidity: A population-based study in 621 real-life patients.

PubMed

Ríos-Tamayo, Rafael; Sáinz, Juan; Martínez-López, Joaquín; Puerta, José Manuel; Chang, Daysi-Yoe-Ling; Rodríguez, Teresa; Garrido, Pilar; de Veas, José Luís García; Romero, Antonio; Moratalla, Lucía; López-Fernández, Elisa; González, Pedro Antonio; Sánchez, María José; Jiménez-Moleón, José Juan; Jurado, Manuel; Lahuerta, Juan José

2016-07-01

Multiple myeloma is a heterogeneous disease with variable survival; this variability cannot be fully explained by the current systems of risk stratification. Early mortality remains a serious obstacle to further improve the trend toward increased survival demonstrated in recent years. However, the definition of early mortality is not standardized yet. Importantly, no study has focused on the impact of comorbidity on early mortality in multiple myeloma to date. Therefore, we analyzed the role of baseline comorbidity in a large population-based cohort of 621 real-life myeloma patients over a 31-year period. To evaluate early mortality, a sequential multivariate regression model at 2, 6, and 12 months from diagnosis was performed. It was demonstrated that comorbidity had an independent impact on early mortality, which is differential and time-dependent. Besides renal failure, respiratory disease at 2 months, liver disease at 6 months, and hepatitis virus C infection at 12 months, were, respectively, associated with early mortality, adjusting for other well-established prognostic factors. On the other hand, the long-term monitoring in our study points out a modest downward trend in early mortality over time. This is the first single institution population-based study aiming to assess the impact of comorbidity on early mortality in multiple myeloma. It is suggested that early mortality should be analyzed at three key time points (2, 6, and 12 months), in order to allow comparisons between studies. Comorbidity plays a critical role in the outcome of myeloma patients in terms of early mortality. Am. J. Hematol. 91:700-704, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Detection of early warning signals of forest mortality in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Kumar, M.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

2017-12-01

Massive forest mortality was observed in California during the most recent drought. Owing to complex interactions of physiological mechanisms under stress, prediction of climate-induced forest mortality using dynamic global vegetation models remains fraught with uncertainty. Given that forest ecosystems approaching mortality tend to exhibit reduction in resilience, we evaluate the time-varying resilience from time series of satellite images to detect early warning signals (EWSs) of mortality. Four metrics of EWSs are used: (1) low greenness, (2) high empirical autocorrelation of greenness, (3) high autocorrelation inferred using a Bayesian dynamic linear model considering the influence of seasonality and climate conditions, and (4) low recovery rate inferred from the drift term in the Langevin equation describing stochastic dynamics. Spatial accuracy and lead-time of these EWSs are evaluated by comparing the EWSs against observed mortality from aerial surveys conducted by the US Forest Service. Our results show that most forested areas in California that underwent mortality exhibit a EWS with a lead time of three months to two years ahead of observed mortality. Notably, EWS is also detected in some areas without mortality, suggesting reduced resilience during drought. Furthermore, the influence of the previous drought (2007-2009) may have propagated into the recent drought (2012-2016) through reduced resilience, hence contributing to the massive forest mortality observed recently. Methodologies developed in this study for detection of EWS will improve the near-term predictability of forest mortality, thus providing crucial information for forest and water resource management.

Early hospital mortality prediction of intensive care unit patients using an ensemble learning approach.

PubMed

Awad, Aya; Bader-El-Den, Mohamed; McNicholas, James; Briggs, Jim

2017-12-01

Mortality prediction of hospitalized patients is an important problem. Over the past few decades, several severity scoring systems and machine learning mortality prediction models have been developed for predicting hospital mortality. By contrast, early mortality prediction for intensive care unit patients remains an open challenge. Most research has focused on severity of illness scoring systems or data mining (DM) models designed for risk estimation at least 24 or 48h after ICU admission. This study highlights the main data challenges in early mortality prediction in ICU patients and introduces a new machine learning based framework for Early Mortality Prediction for Intensive Care Unit patients (EMPICU). The proposed method is evaluated on the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database. Mortality prediction models are developed for patients at the age of 16 or above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU). We employ the ensemble learning Random Forest (RF), the predictive Decision Trees (DT), the probabilistic Naive Bayes (NB) and the rule-based Projective Adaptive Resonance Theory (PART) models. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The explanatory variables included demographic, physiological, vital signs and laboratory test variables. Performance measures were calculated using cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to minimize bias. 11,722 patients with single ICU stays are considered. Only patients at the age of 16 years old and above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU) are considered in this study. The proposed EMPICU framework outperformed standard scoring systems (SOFA, SAPS-I, APACHE-II, NEWS and qSOFA) in terms of AUROC and time (i.e. at 6h compared to 48h or more after admission). The results show that although there are many values missing in the first few hour of ICU admission

High early life mortality in free-ranging dogs is largely influenced by humans

PubMed Central

Paul, Manabi; Sen Majumder, Sreejani; Sau, Shubhra; Nandi, Anjan K.; Bhadra, Anindita

2016-01-01

Free-ranging dogs are a ubiquitous part of human habitations in many developing countries, leading a life of scavengers dependent on human wastes for survival. The effective management of free-ranging dogs calls for understanding of their population dynamics. Life expectancy at birth and early life mortality are important factors that shape life-histories of mammals. We carried out a five year-long census based study in seven locations of West Bengal, India, to understand the pattern of population growth and factors affecting early life mortality in free-ranging dogs. We observed high rates of mortality, with only ~19% of the 364 pups from 95 observed litters surviving till the reproductive age; 63% of total mortality being human influenced. While living near people increases resource availability for dogs, it also has deep adverse impacts on their population growth, making the dog-human relationship on streets highly complex. PMID:26804633

Lactate clearance cut off for early mortality prediction in adult sepsis and septic shock patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinto, R.; Widodo, D.; Pohan, H. T.

2018-03-01

Previous lactate clearance cut off for early mortality prediction in sepsis and septic shock patient was determined by consensus from small sample size-study. We investigated the best lactate clearance cut off and its ability to predict early mortality in sepsis and septic shock patients. This cohort study was conducted in Intensive Care Unit of CiptoMangunkusumo Hospital in 2013. Patients’ lactate clearance and eight other resuscitationendpoints were recorded, and theoutcome was observed during the first 120 hours. The clearance cut off was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and its ability was investigated with Cox’s proportional hazard regression analysis using other resuscitation endpoints as confounders. Total of 268 subjects was included, of whom 70 (26.11%) subjects died within the first 120 hours. The area under ROC of lactate clearance to predict early mortality was 0.78 (95% % confidence interval [CI] 0.71-0.84) with best cut off was <7.5% (sensitivity and specificity 88.99% and 81.4% respectively). Compared with group achieving lactate clearance target, group not achieving lactate clearance target had to increase early mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio 13.42; 95%CI 7.19-25.07). In conclusion, the best lactate clearance cut off as anearly mortality predictor in sepsis and septic shock patients is 7.5%.

Remote-sensing-based analysis of the 1996 surge of Northern Inylchek Glacier, central Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Häusler, Hermann; Ng, Felix; Kopecny, Alexander; Leber, Diethard

2016-11-01

The evolution of Northern Inylchek Glacier and its proglacial lake - Upper Lake Merzbacher - during its 1996 surge and the surrounding decades is analyzed with remote sensing imagery. Overall retreat of the glacier from 1943 to 1996 enlarged the lake to 4 km long and ≈ 100 m deep. The surge in 1996 initiated between 12 September and 7 October and advanced the glacier by 3.7 km to override most of Upper Lake Merzbacher. The surge phase probably ended in December 1996 and involved mean flow velocities across the lower trunk of the glacier that reached 50 m d- 1 over a 32-day period. Water displaced by the surge from Upper Lake Merzbacher, totalling 1.5 × 108 m3 in volume, accelerated filling of Lower Lake Merzbacher downvalley and helped trigger this marginal ice-dammed lake to outburst in a jökulhlaup around late November/early December. The characteristics and duration of the surge render it as similar to temperate glacier surges elsewhere. It may have been facilitated by low basal friction caused by water-saturated sediments in the upper lake bed. Furthermore, bathymetric measurements show that the surge evacuated much sediment into the upper lake, causing its depth to reduce from 20 to 30 m in 1996 to 8 m by 2005 and 2 m by 2011; the corresponding deposition rates imply glacier-catchment specific mean sediment yields of 1.4 to 3.4 × 103 Mg km- 2 a- 1 in the years after the surge. Our study documents novel interactions within a cascade system of glaciers and lakes that exhibits surging and outburst-flood behavior.

Lethal thermal impact at periphery of pyroclastic surges: evidences at Pompeii.

PubMed

Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Petrone, Pierpaolo; Pappalardo, Lucia; Guarino, Fabio M

2010-06-15

The evaluation of mortality of pyroclastic surges and flows (PDCs) produced by explosive eruptions is a major goal in risk assessment and mitigation, particularly in distal reaches of flows that are often heavily urbanized. Pompeii and the nearby archaeological sites preserve the most complete set of evidence of the 79 AD catastrophic eruption recording its effects on structures and people. Here we investigate the causes of mortality in PDCs at Pompeii and surroundings on the bases of a multidisciplinary volcanological and bio-anthropological study. Field and laboratory study of the eruption products and victims merged with numerical simulations and experiments indicate that heat was the main cause of death of people, heretofore supposed to have died by ash suffocation. Our results show that exposure to at least 250 degrees C hot surges at a distance of 10 kilometres from the vent was sufficient to cause instant death, even if people were sheltered within buildings. Despite the fact that impact force and exposure time to dusty gas declined toward PDCs periphery up to the survival conditions, lethal temperatures were maintained up to the PDCs extreme depositional limits. This evidence indicates that the risk in flow marginal zones could be underestimated by simply assuming that very thin distal deposits, resulting from PDCs with poor total particle load, correspond to negligible effects. Therefore our findings are essential for hazard plans development and for actions aimed to risk mitigation at Vesuvius and other explosive volcanoes.

Surge of a Complex Glacier System - The Current Surge of the Bering-Bagley Glacier System, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herzfeld, U. C.; McDonald, B.; Trantow, T.; Hale, G.; Stachura, M.; Weltman, A.; Sears, T.

2013-12-01

Understanding fast glacier flow and glacial accelerations is important for understanding changes in the cryosphere and ultimately in sea level. Surge-type glaciers are one of four types of fast-flowing glaciers --- the other three being continuously fast-flowing glaciers, fjord glaciers and ice streams --- and the one that has seen the least amount of research. The Bering-Bagley Glacier System, Alaska, the largest glacier system in North America, surged in 2011 and 2012. Velocities decreased towards the end of 2011, while the surge kinematics continued to expand. A new surge phase started in summer and fall 2012. In this paper, we report results from airborne observations collected in September 2011, June/July and September/October 2012 and in 2013. Airborne observations include simultaneously collected laser altimeter data, videographic data, GPS data and photographic data and are complemented by satellite data analysis. Methods range from classic interpretation of imagery to analysis and classification of laser altimeter data and connectionist (neural-net) geostatistical classification of concurrent airborne imagery. Results focus on the characteristics of surge progression in a large and complex glacier system (as opposed to a small glacier with relatively simple geometry). We evaluate changes in surface elevations including mass transfer and sudden drawdowns, crevasse types, accelerations and changes in the supra-glacial and englacial hydrologic system. Supraglacial water in Bering Glacier during Surge, July 2012 Airborne laser altimeter profile across major rift in central Bering Glacier, Sept 2011

Early mortality among children and adults in antiretroviral therapy programs in Southwest Ethiopia, 2003-15.

PubMed

Gesesew, Hailay Abrha; Ward, Paul; Woldemichael, Kifle; Mwanri, Lillian

2018-01-01

Several studies reported that the majority of deaths in HIV-infected people are documented in their early antiretroviral therapy (ART) follow-ups. Early mortality refers to death of people on ART for follow up period of below 24 months due to any cause. The current study assessed predictors of early HIV mortality in Southwest Ethiopia. We have conducted a retrospective analysis of 5299 patient records dating from June 2003- March 2015. To estimate survival time and compare the time to event among the different groups of patients, we used a Kaplan Meir curve and log-rank test. To identify mortality predictors, we used a cox regression analysis. We used SPSS-20 for all analyses. A total of 326 patients died in the 12 years follow-up period contributing to 6.2% cumulative incidence and 21.7 deaths per 1000 person-year observations incidence rate. Eighty-nine percent of the total deaths were documented in the first two years follow up-an early-term ART follow up. Early HIV mortality rates among adults were 50% less in separated, divorced or widowed patients compared with never married patients, 1.6 times higher in patients with baseline CD4 count <200 cells/μL compared to baseline CD4 count ≥200 cells/μL, 1.5 times higher in patients with baseline WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 compared to baseline WHO clinical stage 1 or 2, 2.1 times higher in patients with immunologic failure compared with no immunologic failure, 60% less in patients with fair or poor compared with good adherence, 2.9 times higher in patients with bedridden functional status compared to working functional status, and 2.7 times higher with patients who had no history of HIV testing before diagnosis compared to those who had history of HIV testing. Most predictors of early mortality remained the same to the predictors of an overall HIV mortality. When discontinuation was assumed as an event, the predictors of an overall HIV mortality included age between 25-50 years, base line CD4 count, developing

48 CFR 252.217-7001 - Surge option.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Surge option. 252.217-7001... Clauses 252.217-7001 Surge option. As prescribed in 217.208-70(b), use the following clause: Surge Option (AUG 1992) (a) General. The Government has the option to— (1) Increase the quantity of supplies or...

Storm Surge and Tide Interaction: A Complete Paradigm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horsburgh, K.

2014-12-01

Estimates show that in 2005, in the largest 136 coastal cities, there were 40 million people and 3,000 billion of assets exposed to 1 in 100 year coastal flood events. Mean sea level rise will increase this exposure to 150 million people and 35,000 billion of assets by 2070. Any further change in the statistics of flood frequency or severity would impact severely on economic and social systems. It is therefore crucial to understand the physical drivers of extreme storm surges, and to have confidence in datasets used for extreme sea level statistics. Much previous research has focussed on the process of tide-surge interaction, and it is now widely accepted that the physical basis of tide-surge interaction is that a phase shift of the tidal signal represents the effect of the surge on the tide. The second aspect of interaction is that shallow water momentum considerations imply that differing tidal states should modulate surge generation: wind stress should have greater surge-generating potential on lower tides. We present results from a storm surge model of the European shelf that demonstrate that tidal range does have an effect on the surges generated. The cycle-integrated effects of wind stress (i.e. the skew surge) are greater when tidal range is low. Our results contradict the absence of any such correlation in tide gauge records. This suggests that whilst the modulating effect of the tide on the skew surge (the time-independent difference between peak prediction and observations) is significant, the difference between individual storms is dominant. This implies that forecasting systems must predict salient detail of the most intense storms. A further implication is that flood forecasting models need to simulate tides with acceptable accuracy at all coastal locations. We extend our model analysis to show that the same modulation of storm surges (by tidal conditions) applies to tropical cyclones. We conduct simulations using a mature operational storm surge model

Performance Comparison of the European Storm Surge Models and Chaotic Model in Forecasting Extreme Storm Surges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siek, M. B.; Solomatine, D. P.

2009-04-01

Storm surge modeling has rapidly developed considerably over the past 30 years. A number of significant advances on operational storm surge models have been implemented and tested, consisting of: refining computational grids, calibrating the model, using a better numerical scheme (i.e. more realistic model physics for air-sea interaction), implementing data assimilation and ensemble model forecasts. This paper addresses the performance comparison between the existing European storm surge models and the recently developed methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory in forecasting storm surge dynamics. The chaotic model is built using adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbours in the reconstructed phase space of observed time series data. The comparison focused on the model accuracy in forecasting a recently extreme storm surge in the North Sea on November 9th, 2007 that hit the coastlines of several European countries. The combination of a high tide, north-westerly winds exceeding 50 mph and low pressure produced an exceptional storm tide. The tidal level was exceeded 3 meters above normal sea levels. Flood warnings were issued for the east coast of Britain and the entire Dutch coast. The Maeslant barrier's two arc-shaped steel doors in the Europe's biggest port of Rotterdam was closed for the first time since its construction in 1997 due to this storm surge. In comparison to the chaotic model performance, the forecast data from several European physically-based storm surge models were provided from: BSH Germany, DMI Denmark, DNMI Norway, KNMI Netherlands and MUMM Belgium. The performance comparison was made over testing datasets for two periods/conditions: non-stormy period (1-Sep-2007 till 14-Oct-2007) and stormy period (15-Oct-2007 till 20-Nov-2007). A scalar chaotic model with optimized parameters was developed by utilizing an hourly training dataset of observations (11-Sep-2005 till 31-Aug-2007). The comparison results indicated the chaotic

Advances in using satellite altimetry to observe storm surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Guoqi

2017-04-01

Storm surges are the major cause for coastal flooding, resulting in catastrophic damage to properties and loss of life in coastal communities. Thus it is important to utilize new technology to enhance our capabilities of observing storm surges and ultimately to improve our capacity for forecasting storm surges and mitigating damage and loss. In this talk we first review traditional methods of monitoring storm surges. We then provide examples of storm surges observed by nadir satellite altimetry, during Hurricane Sandy and Igor, as well as typhoon and cyclone events. We further evaluate satellite results against tide-gauge data and explain storm surge features. Finally, we discuss the potential of a wide-swath altimetry mission, the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), for observing storm surges.

Early neonatal mortality in twin pregnancy: Findings from 60 low- and middle-income countries.

PubMed

Bellizzi, Saverio; Sobel, Howard; Betran, Ana Pilar; Temmerman, Marleen

2018-06-01

Around the world, the incidence of multiple pregnancies reaches its peak in the Central African countries and often represents an increased risk of death for women and children because of higher rates of obstetrical complications and poor management skills in those countries. We sought to assess the association between twins and early neonatal mortality compared with singleton pregnancies. We also assessed the role of skilled birth attendant and mode of delivery on early neonatal mortality in twin pregnancies. We conducted a secondary analysis of individual level data from 60 nationally-representative Demographic and Health Surveys including 521 867 singleton and 14 312 twin births. We investigated the occurrence of deaths within the first week of life in twins compared to singletons and the effect of place and attendance at birth; also, the role of caesarean sections against vaginal births was examined, globally and after countries stratification per caesarean sections rates. A multi-level logistic regression was used accounting for homogeneity within country, and homogeneity within twin pairs. Early neonatal mortality among twins was significantly higher when compared to singleton neonates (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 7.6; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 7.0-8.3) in these 60 countries. Early neonatal mortality was also higher among twins than singletons when adjusting for birth weight in a subgroup analysis of those countries with data on birth weight (n = 20; less than 20% of missing values) (aOR = 2.8; 95% CI = 2.2-3.5). For countries with high rates (>15%) of caesarean sections (CS), twins delivered vaginally in health facility had a statistically significant (aOR = 4.8; 95% CI = 2.4-9.4) increased risk of early neonatal mortality compared to twins delivered through caesarean sections. Home twin births without SBA was associated with increased mortality compared with delivering at home with SBA (aOR = 1.3; 95% CI = 1.0-1.8) and

Base surge in recent volcanic eruptions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, J.G.

1967-01-01

A base surge, first identified at the Bikini thermonuclear undersea explosion, is a ring-shaped basal cloud that sweeps outward as a density flow from the base of a vertical explosion column. Base surges are also common in shallow underground test explosions and are formed by expanding gases which first vent vertically and then with continued expansion rush over the crater lip (represented by a large solitary wave in an underwater explosion), tear ejecta from it, and feed a gas-charged density flow, which is the surge cloud. This horizontally moving cloud commonly has an initial velocity of more than 50 meters per second and can carry clastic material many kilometers. Base surges are a common feature of many recent shallow, submarine and phreatic volcanic eruptions. They transport ash, mud, lapilli, and blocks with great velocity and commonly sandblast and knock down trees and houses, coat the blast side with mud, and deposit ejecta at distances beyond the limits of throw-out trajectories. Close to the eruption center, the base surge can erode radial channels and deposit material with dune-type bedding. ?? 1967 Stabilimento Tipografico Francesco Giannini & Figli.

Storm surge and tide interaction: a complete paradigm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horsburgh, Kevin; Williams, Jane; Proctor, Robert

2014-05-01

Globally, 200 million people live on coastal floodplains and about 1 trillion worth of assets lie within 1 metre of mean sea level. Any change in the statistics of flood frequency or severity would impact on economic and social systems. It is therefore crucial to understand the physical drivers of extreme storm surges, and to have confidence in datasets used for extreme sea level statistics. Much previous research has focussed on the process of tide-surge interaction, and it is now widely accepted that the physical basis of tide-surge interaction is that a phase shift of the tidal signal represents the effect of the surge on the tide. The second aspect of interaction is that shallow water momentum considerations imply that differing tidal states should modulate surge generation: wind stress should have greater surge-generating potential on lower tides. This has been shown previously by analytical models but not as yet confirmed by fully non-linear models of the continental shelf. We present results from an operational model of the European shelf that demonstrate that tidal range does have an effect on the surges generated. The cycle-integrated effects of wind stress (i.e. the skew surge) are generally greater when tidal range is low. Our results contradict the absence of any such correlation observed in the complete record of UK tide gauge data. This suggests that whilst the modulating effect of the tide on the skew surge (the time-independent difference between peak prediction and observations) is significant, the difference between individual storms is dominant. This implies that forecasting systems must predict salient detail of the most intense storms. A further implication is that operational models need to simulate tides with acceptable accuracy at all coastal locations. We extend our model analysis to show that the same modulation of storm surges (by tidal conditions) applies to tropical cyclones. We conduct simulations using a mature operational storm surge

Typhoon Haiyan-Induced Storm Surge Simulation in Metro Manila Using High-Resolution LiDAR Topographic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santiago, J. T.

2015-12-01

Storm surge is the abnormal rise in sea water over and above astronomical tides due to a forthcoming storm. Developing an early warning system for storm surges is vital due to the high level of hazard they might cause. On 08 November 2013, Typhoon Haiyan generated storm surges that killed over 6,000 people in the central part of the Philippines. The Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology was tasked to create storm surge hazard maps for the country's coastal areas. The research project aims to generate storm surge hazard maps that can be used for disaster mitigation and planning. As part of the research, the team explored a scenario wherein a tropical cyclone hits the Metro Manila with strength as strong as Typhoon Haiyan. The area was chosen primarily for its political, economic and cultural significance as the country's capital. Using Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge model, FLO2D flooding software, LiDAR topographic data, and GIS technology, the effects of a Haiyan-induced tropical cyclone passing through Metro Manila was examined. The population affected, number of affected critical facilities, and potential evacuation sites were identified. The outputs of this study can be used by the authorities as basis for policies that involve disaster risk reduction and management.

Sputtering, Surging Sun [HD Video

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

STEREO (Ahead) caught the action as one edge of a single active region spurted out more than a dozen surges of plasma in less than two days (Feb. 15-16, 2010). As seen in extreme UV light, the surges were narrow and directional outbursts driven by intense magnetic activity in the active region. While these kinds of outbursts have been observed numerous times, it was the frequency of so many surges in a short span of time that caught our attention. In this wavelength of UV light we are seeing singly ionized Helium at about 60,000 degrees C. For more information: stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Credit: NASA/GSFC/STEREO To learn more about NASA's Sun Earth Day go here: sunearthday.nasa.gov/2010/index.php

Developments in a centrifugal compressor surge control -- a technology assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Botros, K.K.; Henderson, J.F.

1994-04-01

There are a number of surge control schemes in current use for centrifugal compressors employed in natural gas transmission systems. Basically, these schemes consist of a set of detection devices that either anticipate surge or detect it at its inception, and a set of control devices that act to prevent surge from occurring. A patent search was conducted in an attempt to assess the level and direction of technology development over the last 20 years and to define the focus for future R D activities. In addition, the paper presents the current state of technology in three areas: surge control,more » surge detection, and surge suppression. Patent data obtained from on-line databases showed that most of the emphasis has been on surge control rather than on detection and control and that the current trend in surge control will likely continue toward incremental improvement of a basic or conventional surge control strategy. Various surge suppression techniques can be grouped in two categories: (1) those that are focused on better compressor interior design, and (2) others that attempt to suppress surge by external and operational means.« less

Cyclic steps due to the surge-type turbidity currents in flume experiments: effect of surge duration on the topography of steps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokokawa, Miwa; Yamano, Junpei; Miyai, Masatomo; Hughes Clarke, John; Izumi, Norihiro

2017-04-01

Field observations of turbidity currents and seabed topography on the Squamish delta in British Columbia, Canada revealed that cyclic steps formed by the surge-type turbidity currents (e.g., Hughes Clarke et al., 2014). The high-density portion of the flow, which affects the sea floor morphology, lasted only 30-60 seconds. We are doing flume experiments aiming to investigate the relationship between the condition of surges and topography of resultant steps. In this presentation, we are going to discuss about the effect of surge duration on the topography of steps. The experiments have been performed at Osaka Institute of Technology. A flume, which is 7.0 m long, 0.3 m deep and 2 cm wide, was suspended in a larger tank, which is 7.6 m long, 1.2 m deep and 0.3 m wide, filled with water. The inner flume tilted at 7 degrees. As a source of turbidity currents, mixture of salt water (1.17 g/cm^3) and plastic particles (1.3 g/cm^3, 0.1-0.18 mm in diameter) was prepared. The concentration of the sediments was 6.1 weight % (5.5 volume %) in the head tank. This mixture of salt water and plastic particles poured into the upstream end of the inner flume from head tank for 3 seconds or 7 seconds. 140 surges were made respectively. Discharge of the currents were fluctuated but range from 306 to 870 mL for 3s-surge, and from 1134 to 2030 mL for 7s-surge. As a result, five or six steps were formed respectively. At the case of 3s-surge, steps located at upstream portion of the flume moved vigorously toward upstream direction, whereas steps at downstream portion of the flume moved toward upstream direction at the case of 7s-surge. The wavelengths and wave heights of the steps by 3s-surge are larger than those of 7s-surge at the upstream portion of the flume, but the size of steps of 3s-surge are smaller than those of 7s-surge at the downstream portion of the flume. In this condition of slope and concentration, the longer surge duration, i.e. larger discharge of the current

Surge detection on an automotive turbocharger during transient phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligant, M.; Danlos, A.; Podevin, P.; Clenci, A.; Guilain, S.

2017-10-01

The surge limit on automotive turbocharger needs to be avoided to prevent operations with pressure and mass flow oscillations. Mild surge is accompanied by noise which is disturbing. Deep surge can cause significant loss of engine power and severe drivability issues. It is necessary to know the stationary limit in order to match a turbocharger with an engine, ensuring enough surge margin. However, this choice does not guarantee surge free operation during transient functioning. In this paper, the surge onset of a compressor while closing a downstream valve is studied. Various tests have been carried out varying the closing time, the position of the initial operating point and the volume of the circuit. The inlet and outlet signals of physical parameters are analyzed with spectral and temporal methods in order to define the instant of the surge occurrence.

The role of marriage in the causal pathway from economic conditions early in life to mortality.

PubMed

van den Berg, Gerard J; Gupta, Sumedha

2015-03-01

This paper analyzes the interplay between early-life conditions and marital status, as determinants of adult mortality. We use individual data from Dutch registers (years 1815-2000), combined with business cycle conditions in childhood as indicators of early-life conditions. The empirical analysis estimates bivariate duration models of marriage and mortality, allowing for unobserved heterogeneity. Results show that conditions around birth and school going ages are important for marriage and mortality. Men typically enjoy a protective effect of marriage, whereas women suffer during childbearing ages. However, having been born under favorable economic conditions reduces female mortality during childbearing ages. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term clinical impact of PSA surge in castration-resistant prostate cancer patients treated with abiraterone.

PubMed

Conteduca, Vincenza; Caffo, Orazio; Lolli, Cristian; Aieta, Michele; Scarpi, Emanuela; Bianchi, Emanuela; Maines, Francesca; Schepisi, Giuseppe; Salvi, Samanta; Massari, Francesco; Carrozza, Francesco; Veccia, Antonello; Chiuri, Vincenzo E; Campadelli, Enrico; Facchini, Gaetano; De Giorgi, Ugo

2017-06-01

Early changes in PSA have been evaluated in association to treatment outcome. The aim of this study was to assess PSA surge phenomenon in castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) patients treated with abiraterone and to correlate those variations with long-term treatment outcome. We retrospectively evaluated 330 CRPC patients in 11 Italian hospitals, monitoring PSA levels at baseline and every 4 weeks. Other clinical, biochemical and molecular parameters were determined at baseline. We considered PSA surge as PSA increase within the first 8 weeks from starting abiraterone more than 1% from baseline followed by a PSA decline. The log-rank test was applied to compare survival between groups of patients according to PSA surge. The impact of PSA surge on survival was evaluated by Cox regression analyses. A total of 330 patients with CRPC, median age 74 years (range, 45-90), received abiraterone (281 chemotherapy-treated and 49 chemotherapy-naïve). PSA surge was observed in 20 (7%) post-chemotherapy and 2 (4%) chemotherapy-naïve patients. For overall patients presenting PSA surge, timing of PSA peak from baseline was 5 ± 1.8 weeks and PSA rise from baseline was 21 ± 18.4%. The overall median follow-up was 23 months (range 1-62). No significant differences in progression-free survival and overall survival were observed between patients with and without PSA surge (P = 0.16 and =0.86, respectively). In addition, uni- and multivariate analyses showed no baseline factors related to PSA surge. PSA surge occurs in both chemotherapy-treated and chemotherapy-naïve patients treated with abiraterone resulting, however, in no long-term impact on outcome. Physicians and patients should be aware of PSA surge challenge to prevent a premature discontinuation of potentially effective therapy with abiraterone. Further larger and prospective studies are warranted to investigate this not infrequent phenomenon. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Lethal Thermal Impact at Periphery of Pyroclastic Surges: Evidences at Pompeii

PubMed Central

Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Petrone, Pierpaolo; Pappalardo, Lucia; Guarino, Fabio M.

2010-01-01

Background The evaluation of mortality of pyroclastic surges and flows (PDCs) produced by explosive eruptions is a major goal in risk assessment and mitigation, particularly in distal reaches of flows that are often heavily urbanized. Pompeii and the nearby archaeological sites preserve the most complete set of evidence of the 79 AD catastrophic eruption recording its effects on structures and people. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we investigate the causes of mortality in PDCs at Pompeii and surroundings on the bases of a multidisciplinary volcanological and bio-anthropological study. Field and laboratory study of the eruption products and victims merged with numerical simulations and experiments indicate that heat was the main cause of death of people, heretofore supposed to have died by ash suffocation. Our results show that exposure to at least 250°C hot surges at a distance of 10 kilometres from the vent was sufficient to cause instant death, even if people were sheltered within buildings. Despite the fact that impact force and exposure time to dusty gas declined toward PDCs periphery up to the survival conditions, lethal temperatures were maintained up to the PDCs extreme depositional limits. Conclusions/Significance This evidence indicates that the risk in flow marginal zones could be underestimated by simply assuming that very thin distal deposits, resulting from PDCs with poor total particle load, correspond to negligible effects. Therefore our findings are essential for hazard plans development and for actions aimed to risk mitigation at Vesuvius and other explosive volcanoes. PMID:20559555

Storm surges formation in the White and Barents Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobrolyubov, Sergey; Korablina, Anastasia; Myslenkov, Stanislav

2016-04-01

Investigation of storm surges in the Arctic seas are of high priority in Russia due to the active development of offshore oil and gas, construction of facilities in the coastal zone, as well as for the safety of navigation. It is important to study the variability of surges, to predict this phenomena and subsequent economic losses, thus including such information into the Russian Arctic Development Program 2020. Surges in the White and Barents Seas are caused mainly by deep cyclones of two types: "diving" from the north (88% of all cyclones) and western. The average height of the storm surges in the White Sea is 0.6-0.9 m. An average duration of storm surges is about 80 hours. Mathematical modeling is used to analyze the characteristics of storm surges formation in the Dvina Bay of the White Sea, and in the Varandey village on the Barents Sea coast. Calculating storm surge heights in the White and Barents seas is performed using the ADCIRC model on an unstructured grid with a step from 20 km in the Barents Sea to 100 m in the White Sea. Unstructured grids allowed keeping small features of the coastline of the White and Barents seas, small islands and shallow banks, and assessing their impact on the development and transformation of wind-generated waves. The ADCIRC model used data of wind field reanalysis CFSv2. The storm surges were simulated for the time period from 1979 to 2010 and included scenarios with / without direct atmospheric pressure forcing, waves and tides. Numerical experiments have revealed distribution of storm surges in channels of the Northern Dvina River delta. The storm surges spreads in the model from the north-north-west of the Dvina Bay. As storm surge moves from the wellhead to the seaside estuary of the Northern Dvina (district Solombala), its height increases from 0.5 to 2 m. We also found a non-linear interaction of the surge and tide during the phase of surge destruction. This phenomenon is the highest in the period of low water, and the

Storm surge along the Pacific coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bromirski, Peter D.; Flick, Reinhard E.; Miller, Arthur J.

2017-01-01

Storm surge is an important factor that contributes to coastal flooding and erosion. Storm surge magnitude along eastern North Pacific coasts results primarily from low sea level pressure (SLP). Thus, coastal regions where high surge occurs identify the dominant locations where intense storms make landfall, controlled by storm track across the North Pacific. Here storm surge variability along the Pacific coast of North America is characterized by positive nontide residuals at a network of tide gauge stations from southern California to Alaska. The magnitudes of mean and extreme storm surge generally increase from south to north, with typically high amplitude surge north of Cape Mendocino and lower surge to the south. Correlation of mode 1 nontide principal component (PC1) during winter months (December-February) with anomalous SLP over the northeast Pacific indicates that the dominant storm landfall region is along the Cascadia/British Columbia coast. Although empirical orthogonal function spatial patterns show substantial interannual variability, similar correlation patterns of nontide PC1 over the 1948-1975 and 1983-2014 epochs with anomalous SLP suggest that, when considering decadal-scale time periods, storm surge and associated tracks have generally not changed appreciably since 1948. Nontide PC1 is well correlated with PC1 of both anomalous SLP and modeled wave height near the tide gauge stations, reflecting the interrelationship between storms, surge, and waves. Weaker surge south of Cape Mendocino during the 2015-2016 El Niño compared with 1982-1983 may result from changes in Hadley circulation. Importantly from a coastal impacts perspective, extreme storm surge events are often accompanied by high waves.

Analysis of Storm Surge in Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, W. H.

2017-12-01

A storm surge is a type of coastal flood that is caused by low-pressure systems such as tropical cyclones. Storm surges caused by tropical cyclones can be very powerful and damaging, as they can flood coastal areas, and even destroy infrastructure in serious cases. Some serious cases of storm surges leading to more than thousands of deaths include Hurricane Katrina (2005) in New Orleans and Typhoon Haiyan (2013) in Philippines. Hong Kong is a coastal city that is prone to tropical cyclones, having an average of 5-6 tropical cyclones entering 500km range of Hong Kong per year. Storm surges have seriously damaged Hong Kong in the past, causing more than 100 deaths by Typhoon Wanda (1962), and leading to serious damage to Tai O and Cheung Chau by Typhoon Hagupit (2008). To prevent economic damage and casualties from storm surges, accurately predicting the height of storm surges and giving timely warnings to citizens is very important. In this project, I will be analyzing how different factors affect the height of storm surge, mainly using data from Hong Kong. These factors include the windspeed in Hong Kong, the atmospheric pressure in Hong Kong, the moon phase, the wind direction, the intensity of the tropical cyclone, distance between the tropical cyclone and Hong Kong, the direction of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong, the speed of movement of the tropical cyclone and more. My findings will also be compared with cases from other places, to see if my findings also apply for other places.

Early neonatal mortality in twin pregnancy: Findings from 60 low- and middle-income countries

PubMed Central

Bellizzi, Saverio; Sobel, Howard; Betran, Ana Pilar; Temmerman, Marleen

2018-01-01

Background Around the world, the incidence of multiple pregnancies reaches its peak in the Central African countries and often represents an increased risk of death for women and children because of higher rates of obstetrical complications and poor management skills in those countries. We sought to assess the association between twins and early neonatal mortality compared with singleton pregnancies. We also assessed the role of skilled birth attendant and mode of delivery on early neonatal mortality in twin pregnancies. Methods We conducted a secondary analysis of individual level data from 60 nationally-representative Demographic and Health Surveys including 521 867 singleton and 14 312 twin births. We investigated the occurrence of deaths within the first week of life in twins compared to singletons and the effect of place and attendance at birth; also, the role of caesarean sections against vaginal births was examined, globally and after countries stratification per caesarean sections rates. A multi-level logistic regression was used accounting for homogeneity within country, and homogeneity within twin pairs. Results Early neonatal mortality among twins was significantly higher when compared to singleton neonates (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 7.6; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 7.0-8.3) in these 60 countries. Early neonatal mortality was also higher among twins than singletons when adjusting for birth weight in a subgroup analysis of those countries with data on birth weight (n = 20; less than 20% of missing values) (aOR = 2.8; 95% CI = 2.2-3.5). For countries with high rates (>15%) of caesarean sections (CS), twins delivered vaginally in health facility had a statistically significant (aOR = 4.8; 95% CI = 2.4-9.4) increased risk of early neonatal mortality compared to twins delivered through caesarean sections. Home twin births without SBA was associated with increased mortality compared with delivering at home with SBA (aOR = 1

Integrated plan to augment surge capacity.

PubMed

Dayton, Christopher; Ibrahim, Jamil; Augenbraun, Michael; Brooks, Steven; Mody, Kiaran; Holford, Donald; Roblin, Patricia; Arquilla, Bonnie

2008-01-01

Surge capacity is defined as a healthcare system's ability to rapidly expand beyond normal services to meet the increased demand for appropriate space, qualified personnel, medical care, and public health in the event ofbioterrorism, disaster, or other large-scale, public health emergencies. There are many individuals and agencies, including policy makers, planners, administrators, and staff at the federal, state, and local level, involved in the process of planning for and executing policy in respect to a surge in the medical requirements of a population. They are responsible to ensure there is sufficient surge capacity within their own jurisdiction. The [US] federal government has required New York State to create a system of hospital bed surge capacity that provides for 500 adult and pediatric patients per 1 million population, which has been estimated to be an increase of 15-20% in bed availability. In response, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (NYC DOH) has requested that area hospitals take an inventory of available beds and set a goal to provide for a 20% surge capacity to be available during a mass-casualty event or other conditions calling for increased inpatient bed availability. In 2003, under the auspices of the NYC DOH, the New York Institute of All Hazard Preparedness (NYIHP) was formed from four unaffiliated, healthcare facilities in Central Brooklyn to address this and other goals. The NYIHP hospitals have developed a surge capacity plan to provide necessary space and utilities. As these plans have been applied, a bed surge capacity of approximately 25% was identified and created for Central Brooklyn to provide for the increased demand on the medical care system that may accompany a disaster. Through the process of developing an integrated plan that would engage a public health incident, the facilities of NYIHP demonstrate that a model of cooperation may be applied to an inherently fractioned medical system.

Does shared family background influence the impact of educational differences on early mortality?

PubMed

Søndergaard, Grethe; Mortensen, Laust H; Nybo Andersen, Anne-Marie; Andersen, Per Kragh; Dalton, Susanne Oksbjerg; Madsen, Mia; Osler, Merete

2012-10-15

The mechanisms behind social differences in mortality rates have been debated. The authors examined the extent to which shared family background and health in early life could explain the association between educational status and all-cause mortality rates using a sibling design. The study was register-based and included all individuals born in Denmark between 1950 and 1979 who had at least 1 full sibling born in the same time period (n = 1,381,436). All individuals were followed from 28 years of age until death, emigration, or December 2009. The authors used Cox regression analyses to estimate hazard ratios for mortality according to educational level. Conventional cohort and intersibling analyses were carried out and conducted separately for deaths occurring before and after the age of 45 years, respectively. The cohort analyses showed an inverse association between educational status and all-cause mortality that was strongest for males, increased with younger birth cohorts, and tended to be strongest in the analyses of death before 45 years of age. The associations were attenuated slightly in the intersibling analyses and after adjustment for serious health conditions in early life. Hence, health selection and confounding by factors shared by siblings explained only a minor part of the association between educational level and all-cause mortality.

Mapping Dependence Between Extreme Rainfall and Storm Surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Wenyan; McInnes, Kathleen; O'Grady, Julian; Hoeke, Ron; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-04-01

Dependence between extreme storm surge and rainfall can have significant implications for flood risk in coastal and estuarine regions. To supplement limited observational records, we use reanalysis surge data from a hydrodynamic model as the basis for dependence mapping, providing information at a resolution of approximately 30 km along the Australian coastline. We evaluated this approach by comparing the dependence estimates from modeled surge to that calculated using historical surge records from 79 tide gauges around Australia. The results show reasonable agreement between the two sets of dependence values, with the exception of lower seasonal variation in the modeled dependence values compared to the observed data, especially at locations where there are multiple processes driving extreme storm surge. This is due to the combined impact of local bathymetry as well as the resolution of the hydrodynamic model and its meteorological inputs. Meteorological drivers were also investigated for different combinations of extreme rainfall and surge—namely rain-only, surge-only, and coincident extremes—finding that different synoptic patterns are responsible for each combination. The ability to supplement observational records with high-resolution modeled surge data enables a much more precise quantification of dependence along the coastline, strengthening the physical basis for assessments of flood risk in coastal regions.

Predicting Early Mortality After Hip Fracture Surgery: The Hip Fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam.

PubMed

Karres, Julian; Kieviet, Noera; Eerenberg, Jan-Peter; Vrouenraets, Bart C

2018-01-01

Early mortality after hip fracture surgery is high and preoperative risk assessment for the individual patient is challenging. A risk model could identify patients in need of more intensive perioperative care, provide insight in the prognosis, and allow for risk adjustment in audits. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery: the Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam (HEMA). Data on 1050 consecutive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery between 2004 and 2010 were retrospectively collected and randomly split into a development cohort (746 patients) and validation cohort (304 patients). Logistic regression analysis was performed in the development cohort to determine risk factors for the HEMA. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in both cohorts using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and by stratification into low-, medium- and high-risk groups. Nine predictors for 30-day mortality were identified and used in the final model: age ≥85 years, in-hospital fracture, signs of malnutrition, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, current pneumonia, renal failure, malignancy, and serum urea >9 mmol/L. The HEMA showed good discrimination in the development cohort (AUC = 0.81) and the validation cohort (AUC = 0.79). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated no lack of fit in either cohort (P > 0.05). The HEMA is based on preoperative variables and can be used to predict the risk of 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery for the individual patient. Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Application of short-data methods on extreme surge levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.

2014-12-01

Tropical cyclone-induced storm surges are among the most destructive natural hazards that impact the United States. Unfortunately for academic research, the available time series for extreme surge analysis are very short. The limited data introduces uncertainty and affects the accuracy of statistical analyses of extreme surge levels. This study deals with techniques applicable to data sets less than 20 years, including simulation modelling and methods based on the parameters of the parent distribution. The verified water levels from water gauges spread along the Southwest and Southeast Florida Coast, as well as the Florida Keys, are used in this study. Methods to calculate extreme storm surges are described and reviewed, including 'classical' methods based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), and approaches designed specifically to deal with short data sets. Incorporating global-warming influence, the statistical analysis reveals enhanced extreme surge magnitudes and frequencies during warm years, while reduced levels of extreme surge activity are observed in the same study domain during cold years. Furthermore, a non-stationary GEV distribution is applied to predict the extreme surge levels with warming sea surface temperatures. The non-stationary GEV distribution indicates that with 1 Celsius degree warming in sea surface temperature from the baseline climate, the 100-year return surge level in Southwest and Southeast Florida will increase by up to 40 centimeters. The considered statistical approaches for extreme surge estimation based on short data sets will be valuable to coastal stakeholders, including urban planners, emergency managers, and the hurricane and storm surge forecasting and warning system.

Prognostic indices for early mortality in ischaemic stroke - meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mattishent, K; Kwok, C S; Mahtani, A; Pelpola, K; Myint, P K; Loke, Y K

2016-01-01

Several models have been developed to predict mortality in ischaemic stroke. We aimed to evaluate systematically the performance of published stroke prognostic scores. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE in February 2014 for prognostic models (published between 2003 and 2014) used in predicting early mortality (<6 months) after ischaemic stroke. We evaluated discriminant ability of the tools through meta-analysis of the area under the curve receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) or c-statistic. We evaluated the following components of study validity: collection of prognostic variables, neuroimaging, treatment pathways and missing data. We identified 18 articles (involving 163 240 patients) reporting on the performance of prognostic models for mortality in ischaemic stroke, with 15 articles providing AUC for meta-analysis. Most studies were either retrospective, or post hoc analyses of prospectively collected data; all but three reported validation data. The iSCORE had the largest number of validation cohorts (five) within our systematic review and showed good performance in four different countries, pooled AUC 0.84 (95% CI 0.82-0.87). We identified other potentially useful prognostic tools that have yet to be as extensively validated as iSCORE - these include SOAR (2 studies, pooled AUC 0.79, 95% CI 0.78-0.80), GWTG (2 studies, pooled AUC 0.72, 95% CI 0.72-0.72) and PLAN (1 study, pooled AUC 0.85, 95% CI 0.84-0.87). Our meta-analysis has identified and summarized the performance of several prognostic scores with modest to good predictive accuracy for early mortality in ischaemic stroke, with the iSCORE having the broadest evidence base. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Hα Surges Initiated by Newly-emerging Satellite Magnetic Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun-feng; Zhou, Tuan-hui; Ji, Hai-sheng

2014-01-01

On July 22, 2011 and in the active region NOAA 11259 there ap- peared the event of the ejection of solar atmospheric Hα surges. According to the full-disc Hα observations of the Big Bear Solar Observatory in United States, three consecutive surges at one and the same place in the north of the main spot of the active region were discovered. The trajectories of these three surges exhib- ited the figure of straight lines, and their integral configuration is like an inverted Eiffel Tower. The first two surges are quite similar, and in each of them there appeared two bright points in the northern part of the main spot. After several minutes, the surges appeared in the midst of bright points. When the bright- ness of the bright points attained the maximum value, the surges spouted out from the midst of bright points. And after reaching the maximum altitude, they quickly vanished. Before the ejection of the third surge took place, no bright points appeared. Besides, its maximal altitude is merely one half of that of the first two surges. Via a comparison with the SDO/HMI (Solar Dynamics Obser- vatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) data of radial magnetic fields, it is found that in more than one hour before the appearance of the first surge there emerged bipolar magnetic fields in the region of ejection. Besides, in several min- utes before the ejection of each Hα surge the magnetic fluxes of positive polarity diminished. Via our analysis it is found that there appeared reconnections be- tween the newly emerging satellite magnetic fields and the preexisting magnetic fields in the spot, and this caused the continuous ejections of Hα surges.

Natural selection and sex differences in morbidity and mortality in early life.

PubMed

Wells, J C

2000-01-07

Both morbidity and mortality are consistently reported to be higher in males than in females in early life, but no explanation for these findings has been offered. This paper argues that the sex difference in early vulnerability can be attributed to the natural selection of optimal maternal strategies for maximizing lifetime reproductive success, as modelled previously by Trivers and Willard. These authors theorized that males and females offer different returns on parental investment depending on the state of the environment. Natural selection has therefore favoured maternal ability to manipulate offspring sex in response to environmental conditions in early life, as shown in variation in the sex ratio at birth. This argument can be extended to the whole period of parental investment until weaning. Male vulnerability in response to environmental stress in early life is predicted to have been favoured by natural selection. This vulnerability is most evident in the harsh conditions resulting from pre-term birth, but can also be seen in term infants, and manifests as greater morbidity and mortality persisting into early childhood. Malnutrition, interacting with infection after birth, is suggested as the fundamental trigger mechanism. The model suggests that whatever improvements are made in medical care, any environmental stress will always affect males more severely than females in early life. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

7 CFR 58.237 - Condensed surge supply.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., GENERAL SPECIFICATIONS FOR APPROVED PLANTS AND STANDARDS FOR GRADES OF DAIRY PRODUCTS 1 General... Procedures § 58.237 Condensed surge supply. Surge tanks or balance tanks if used between the evaporators and...

Risk Assessment of Hurricane Storm Surge for Tampa Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

2011-12-01

Hurricane storm surge presents a major hazard for the United States and many other coastal areas around the world. Risk assessment of current and future hurricane storm surge provides the basis for risk mitigation and related decision making. This study investigates the hurricane surge risk for Tampa Bay, located on the central west coast of Florida. Although fewer storms have made landfall in the central west Florida than in regions farther west in the Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of U.S., Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge due to its geophysical features. It is surrounded by low-lying lands, much of which may be inundated by a storm tide of 6 m. Also, edge waves trapped on the west Florida shelf can propagate along the coastline and affect the sea level outside the area of a forced storm surge; Tampa Bay may be affected by storms traversing some distance outside the Bay. Moreover, when the propagation speed of the edge wave is close to that of a storm moving parallel to the coast, resonance may occur and the water elevation in the Bay may be greatly enhanced. Therefore, Tampa Bay is vulnerable to storms with a broad spectrum of characteristics. We apply a model-based risk assessment method to carry out the investigation. To estimate the current surge risk, we apply a statistical/deterministic hurricane model to generate a set of 1500 storms for the Tampa area, under the observed current climate (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) estimated from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis. To study the effect of climate change, we use four climate models, CNRM-CM3, ECHAM, GFDL-CM2.0, and MIROC3.2, respectively, to drive the hurricane model to generate four sets of 1500 Tampa storms under current climate conditions (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) and another four under future climate conditions of the IPCC-AR4 A1B emission scenario (represented by 2081-2100 statistics). Then, we apply two hydrodynamic models, the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model and the Sea

Numerical Evaluation of Storm Surge Indices for Public Advisory Purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bass, B.; Bedient, P. B.; Dawson, C.; Proft, J.

2016-12-01

After the devastating hurricane season of 2005, shortcomings with the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale's (SSHS) ability to characterize a tropical cyclones potential to generate storm surge became widely apparent. As a result, several alternative surge indices were proposed to replace the SSHS, including Powell and Reinhold's Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) factor, Kantha's Hurricane Surge Index (HSI), and Irish and Resio's Surge Scale (SS). Of the previous, the IKE factor is the only surge index to-date that truly captures a tropical cyclones integrated intensity, size, and wind field distribution. However, since the IKE factor was proposed in 2007, an accurate assessment of this surge index has not been performed. This study provides the first quantitative evaluation of the IKEs ability to serve as a predictor of a tropical cyclones potential surge impacts as compared to other alternative surge indices. Using the tightly coupled ADvanced CIRCulation and Simulating WAves Nearshore models, the surge and wave responses of Hurricane Ike (2008) and 78 synthetic tropical cyclones were evaluated against the SSHS, IKE, HSI and SS. Results along the upper TX coast of the Gulf of Mexico demonstrate that the HSI performs best in capturing the peak surge response of a tropical cyclone, while the IKE accounting for winds greater than tropical storm intensity (IKETS) provides the most accurate estimate of a tropical cyclones regional surge impacts. These results demonstrate that the appropriate selection of a surge index ultimately depends on what information is of interest to be conveyed to the public and/or scientific community.

30 CFR 77.209 - Surge and storage piles.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Surge and storage piles. 77.209 Section 77.209... Installations § 77.209 Surge and storage piles. No person shall be permitted to walk or stand immediately above a reclaiming area or in any other area at or near a surge or storage pile where the reclaiming...

30 CFR 77.209 - Surge and storage piles.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Surge and storage piles. 77.209 Section 77.209... Installations § 77.209 Surge and storage piles. No person shall be permitted to walk or stand immediately above a reclaiming area or in any other area at or near a surge or storage pile where the reclaiming...

Predictors of early mortality after rabbit antithymocyte globulin as first-line treatment in severe aplastic anemia.

PubMed

Atta, Elias H; Lima, Carlos B L; Dias, Danielle S P; Clé, Diego V; Bonduel, Mariana M; Sciuccati, Gabriela B; Medeiros, Larissa A; Oliveira, Michel M; Salvino, Marco A; Garanito, Marlene P; Blum Fonseca, Patricia B; Saad, Sara Teresinha O; Calado, Rodrigo T; Scheinberg, Phillip

2017-11-01

Despite being recommended as first-line immunosuppressive therapy in severe aplastic anemia (SAA), horse antithymocyte globulin (ATG) is still unavailable in many countries outside the USA. Rabbit ATG is more lymphocytoxic than horse ATG, and this might result in a higher incidence of severe infections and early mortality. This study was designed to identify the risk factors for early mortality and overall survival (OS) after rabbit ATG in patients with SAA. We retrospectively reviewed 185 patients with SAA who underwent rabbit ATG and cyclosporine. The incidence of death in 3 months following rabbit ATG therapy was 15.1% (28/185). Early mortality was mainly related to infectious complications, despite adequate antibiotic and/or antifungal treatment. Age > 35 years (odds ratio [OR] 5.06, P = 0.001) and baseline absolute neutrophil count (ANC) ≤ 0.1 × 10 9 /L (OR 7.64, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for early mortality after immunosuppressive therapy with this agent. Hematological response at 6 months was observed in only 29.7% of all patients. OS at 1 year after rabbit ATG was 75.3%; and age > 35 years (OR 1.88, P = 0.03), baseline ANC ≤ 0.1 × 10 9 /L (OR 2.65, P < 0.001), and lack of response to rabbit ATG (OR 11.40, P < 0.001) were independently associated with mortality. Alternative strategies are needed for the treatment of SAA patients in countries were horse ATG is unavailable, particularly for those at high risk for early mortality after rabbit ATG due to a higher age and very low pre-treatment neutrophil count.

Surge Protection in Low-Voltage AC Power Circuits: An Anthology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martzloff, F. D.

2002-10-01

The papers included in this part of the Anthology provide basic information on the propagation of surges in low-voltage AC power circuits. The subject was approached by a combination of experiments and theoretical considerations. One important distinction is made between voltage surges and current surges. Historically, voltage surges were the initial concern. After the introduction and widespread use of current-diverting surge-protective devices at the point-of-use, the propagation of current surges became a significant factor. The papers included in this part reflect this dual dichotomy of voltage versus current and impedance mismatch effects versus simple circuit theory.

Storm Surge Measurement with an Airborne Scanning Radar Altimeter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, C. W.; Walsh, E. J.; Krabill, W. B.; Shaffer, W. A.; Baig, S. R.; Peng, M.; Pietrafesa, L. J.; Garcia, A. W.; Marks, F. D., Jr.; Black, P. G.;

Partitioning loss rates of early juvenile blue crabs from seagrass habitats into mortality and emigration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Etherington, L.L.; Eggleston, D.B.; Stockhausen, W.T.

2003-01-01

Determining how post-settlement processes modify patterns of settlement is vital in understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of recruitment variability of species with open populations. Generally, either single components of post-settlement loss (mortality or emigration) are examined at a time, or else the total loss is examined without discrimination of mortality and emigration components. The role of mortality in the loss of early juvenile blue crabs, Callinectes sapidus, has been addressed in a few studies; however, the relative contribution of emigration has received little attention. We conducted mark-recapture experiments to examine the relative contribution of mortality and emigration to total loss rates of early juvenile blue crabs from seagrass habitats. Loss was partitioned into emigration and mortality components using a modified version of Jackson's (1939) square-within-a-square method. The field experiments assessed the effects of two size classes of early instars (J1-J2, J3-J5), two densities of juveniles (low: 16 m-2, high: 64 m-2), and time of day (day, night) on loss rates. In general, total loss rates of experimental juveniles and colonization rates by unmarked juveniles were extremely high (range = 10-57 crabs m-2/6 h and 17-51 crabs m-2/6 h, for loss and colonization, respectively). Total loss rates were higher at night than during the day, suggesting that juveniles (or potentially their predators) exhibit increased nocturnal activity. While colonization rates did not differ by time of day, J3-J5 juveniles demonstrated higher rates of colonization than J1-J2 crabs. Overall, there was high variability in both mortality and emigration, particularly for emigration. Average probabilities of mortality across all treatment combinations ranged from 0.25-0.67/6 h, while probabilities of emigration ranged from 0.29-0.72/6 h. Although mean mortality rates were greater than emigration rates in most treatments, the proportion of experimental trials

A predictive model for early mortality after surgical treatment of heart valve or prosthesis infective endocarditis. The EndoSCORE.

PubMed

Di Mauro, Michele; Dato, Guglielmo Mario Actis; Barili, Fabio; Gelsomino, Sandro; Santè, Pasquale; Corte, Alessandro Della; Carrozza, Antonio; Ratta, Ester Della; Cugola, Diego; Galletti, Lorenzo; Devotini, Roger; Casabona, Riccardo; Santini, Francesco; Salsano, Antonio; Scrofani, Roberto; Antona, Carlo; Botta, Luca; Russo, Claudio; Mancuso, Samuel; Rinaldi, Mauro; De Vincentiis, Carlo; Biondi, Andrea; Beghi, Cesare; Cappabianca, Giangiuseppe; Tarzia, Vincenzo; Gerosa, Gino; De Bonis, Michele; Pozzoli, Alberto; Nicolini, Francesco; Benassi, Filippo; Rosato, Francesco; Grasso, Elena; Livi, Ugolino; Sponga, Sandro; Pacini, Davide; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; De Martino, Andrea; Bortolotti, Uberto; Onorati, Francesco; Faggian, Giuseppe; Lorusso, Roberto; Vizzardi, Enrico; Di Giammarco, Gabriele; Marinelli, Daniele; Villa, Emmanuel; Troise, Giovanni; Picichè, Marco; Musumeci, Francesco; Paparella, Domenico; Margari, Vito; Tritto, Francesco; Damiani, Girolamo; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Zaccaria, Salvatore; Renzulli, Attilio; Serraino, Giuseppe; Mariscalco, Giovanni; Maselli, Daniele; Foschi, Massimiliano; Parolari, Alessandro; Nappi, Giannantonio

2017-08-15

The aim of this large retrospective study was to provide a logistic risk model along an additive score to predict early mortality after surgical treatment of patients with heart valve or prosthesis infective endocarditis (IE). From 2000 to 2015, 2715 patients with native valve endocarditis (NVE) or prosthesis valve endocarditis (PVE) were operated on in 26 Italian Cardiac Surgery Centers. The relationship between early mortality and covariates was evaluated with logistic mixed effect models. Fixed effects are parameters associated with the entire population or with certain repeatable levels of experimental factors, while random effects are associated with individual experimental units (centers). Early mortality was 11.0% (298/2715); At mixed effect logistic regression the following variables were found associated with early mortality: age class, female gender, LVEF, preoperative shock, COPD, creatinine value above 2mg/dl, presence of abscess, number of treated valve/prosthesis (with respect to one treated valve/prosthesis) and the isolation of Staphylococcus aureus, Fungus spp., Pseudomonas Aeruginosa and other micro-organisms, while Streptococcus spp., Enterococcus spp. and other Staphylococci did not affect early mortality, as well as no micro-organisms isolation. LVEF was found linearly associated with outcomes while non-linear association between mortality and age was tested and the best model was found with a categorization into four classes (AUC=0.851). The following study provides a logistic risk model to predict early mortality in patients with heart valve or prosthesis infective endocarditis undergoing surgical treatment, called "The EndoSCORE". Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Probabilistic storm surge inundation maps for Metro Manila based on Philippine public storm warning signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

2015-03-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water over the astronomical tides, generated by an approaching storm. This event poses a major threat to the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013. This hydro-meteorological hazard is one of the main reasons for the high number of casualties due to the typhoon, with 6300 deaths. It became evident that the need to develop a storm surge inundation map is of utmost importance. To develop these maps, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate storm surge heights. The frequency distribution of the maximum storm surge heights was calculated using simulation results of tropical cyclones under a specific public storm warning signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of inundation for a specific PSWS using the probability of exceedance derived from the frequency distribution. Buildings and other structures were assigned a probability of exceedance depending on their occupancy category, i.e., 1% probability of exceedance for critical facilities, 10% probability of exceedance for special occupancy structures, and 25% for standard occupancy and miscellaneous structures. The maps produced show the storm-surge-vulnerable areas in Metro Manila, illustrated by the flood depth of up to 4 m and extent of up to 6.5 km from the coastline. This information can help local government units in developing early warning systems, disaster preparedness and mitigation plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline

Model-data comparisons of crevasses in accelerating glaciers exemplified for the 2011-2013 surge of Bering Glacier, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trantow, T.; Herzfeld, U. C.

2017-12-01

Glacier acceleration, ubiquitous along the periphery of the major icesheets, presents one of the main uncertainties in modeling future global sea-level rise according to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (2013). The surge phenomenon is one type of glacial acceleration and is the least understood. During a surge, large-scale elevation change and significant crevassing occurs throughout the entire ice system. Crevasses are the most obvious manifestations of the surge dynamics and provide a source of geophysical information that allows reconstruction of deformation processes. The recent surge of the Bering-Bagley Glacier System (BBGS), Alaska, in 2011-2013 provides an excellent test case to study surging through airborne and satellite observations together with numerical modeling. A 3D full-Stokes finite element model of the BBGS has been created using the Elmer/Ice software for structural and dynamical investigations of the surge. A von Mises condition is applied to modeled surface stresses to predict where crevassing would occur during the surge. The model uses CryoSat-2 derived surface topography (Baseline-C), bedrock topography, Glen's flow law with an isothermal assumption and a uniform linear friction law at the ice/bedrock boundary to represent the surge state in early 2011 when peak velocities were observed. Additionally, geostatistical characterization applied to optical satellite imagery provides an observational data set for model-data comparisons. Observed and modeled crevasse characteristics are compared with respect to their location, magnitude and orientation. Similarity mapping applied to the modeled von Mises stress and observed surface roughness values indicates that the two quantities are correlated. Results indicate that large-scale surface crevasses resulting from a surge are connected to the bedrock topography of the glacier system. The model-data comparisons used in this analysis serve to validate the numerical model and provide insight into the

Surge dynamics and lake outbursts of Kyagar Glacier, Karakoram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Round, Vanessa; Leinss, Silvan; Huss, Matthias; Haemmig, Christoph; Hajnsek, Irena

2017-03-01

The recent surge cycle of Kyagar Glacier, in the Chinese Karakoram, caused formation of an ice-dammed lake and subsequent glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) exceeding 40 million m3 in 2015 and 2016. GLOFs from Kyagar Glacier reached double this size in 2002 and earlier, but the role of glacier surging in GLOF formation was previously unrecognised. We present an integrative analysis of the glacier surge dynamics from 2011 to 2016, assessing surge mechanisms and evaluating the surge cycle impact on GLOFs. Over 80 glacier surface velocity fields were created from TanDEM-X (TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurement), Sentinel-1A, and Landsat satellite data. Changes in ice thickness distribution were revealed by a time series of TanDEM-X elevation models. The analysis shows that, during a quiescence phase lasting at least 14 years, ice mass built up in a reservoir area at the top of the glacier tongue, and the terminus thinned by up to 100 m, but in the 2 years preceding the surge onset this pattern reversed. The surge initiated with the onset of the 2014 melt season, and in the following 15 months velocity evolved in a manner consistent with a hydrologically controlled surge mechanism. Dramatic accelerations coincided with melt seasons, winter deceleration was accompanied by subglacial drainage, and rapid surge termination occurred following the 2015 GLOF. Rapid basal motion during the surge is seemingly controlled by high water pressure, caused by input of surface water into either an inefficient subglacial drainage system or unstable subglacial till. The potential lake volume increased to more than 70 million m3 by late 2016, as a result of over 60 m of thickening at the terminus. Lake formation and the evolution of the ice dam height should be carefully monitored through remote sensing to anticipate large GLOFs in the near future.

Volume-based characterization of postocclusion surge.

PubMed

Zacharias, Jaime; Zacharias, Sergio

2005-10-01

To propose an alternative method to characterize postocclusion surge using a collapsible artificial anterior chamber to replace the currently used rigid anterior chamber model. Fundación Oftamológica Los Andes, Santiago, Chile. The distal end of a phacoemulsification handpiece was placed inside a compliant artificial anterior chamber. Digital recordings of chamber pressure, chamber volume, inflow, and outflow were performed during occlusion break of the phacoemulsification tip. The occlusion break profile of 2 different consoles was compared. Occlusion break while using a rigid anterior chamber model produced a simultaneous increase of chamber inflow and outflow. In the rigid chamber model, pressure decreased sharply, reaching negative pressure values. Alternatively, with the collapsible chamber model, a delay was observed in the inflow that occurs to compensate the outflow surge. Also, the chamber pressure drop was smaller in magnitude, never undershooting below atmospheric pressure into negative values. Using 500 mm Hg as vacuum limit, the Infiniti System (Alcon) performed better that the Legacy (Alcon), showing an 18% reduction in peak volume variation. The collapsible anterior chamber model provides a more realistic representation of the postocclusion surge events that occur in the real eye during cataract surgery. Peak volume fluctuation (mL), half volume recovery time(s), and volume fluctuation integral value (mL x s) are proposed as realistic indicators to characterize the postocclusion surge performance. These indicators show that the Infiniti System has a better postocclusion surge behavior than the Legacy System.

Observing Storm Surges from Space: A New Opportunity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Guoqi; Ma, Zhimin; Chen, Dake; de Young, Brad; Chen, Nancy

2013-04-01

Coastal tide gauges can be used to monitor variations of a storm surge along the coast, but not in the cross-shelf direction. As a result, the cross-shelf structure of a storm surge has rarely been observed. In this study we focus on Hurricane Igor-induced storm surge off Newfoundland, Canada. Altimetric observations at about 2:30, September 22, 2010 UTC (hours after the passage of Hurricane Igor) reveal prominent cross-shelf variation of sea surface height during the storm passage, including a large nearshore slope and a mid-shelf depression. A significant coastal surge of 1 m derived from satellite altimetry is found to be consistent with tide-gauge measurements at nearby St. John's station. The post-storm sea level variations at St. John's and Argentia are argued to be associated with free equatorward-propagating continental shelf waves (with phase speeds of 11-13 m/s), generated along the northeast Newfoundland coast hours after the storm moved away from St. John's. The cross-shelf e-folding scale of the shelf wave was estimated to be ~100 km. We further show approximate agreement of altimetric and tide-gauge observations in the Gulf of Mexico during Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Isaac (2012). The study for the first time in the literature shows the robustness of satellite altimetry to observe storm surges, complementing tide-gauge observations for the analysis of storm surge characteristics and for the validation and improvement of storm surge models.

Surging Across the Rings

NASA Image and Video Library

2007-07-26

A surge in brightness appears on the rings directly opposite the Sun from the Cassini spacecraft. This "opposition surge" travels across the rings as the spacecraft watches. This view looks toward the sunlit side of the rings from about 9 degrees below the ringplane. The image was taken in visible light with the Cassini spacecraft wide-angle camera on June 12, 2007 using a spectral filter sensitive to wavelengths of infrared light centered at 853 nanometers. The view was acquired at a distance of approximately 524,374 kilometers (325,830 miles) from Saturn. Image scale is 31 kilometers (19 miles) per pixel. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA08992

H{α} Surges Aroused by Newly-emerging Satellite Bipolar Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J. F.; Zhou, T. H.; Ji, H. S.

2013-07-01

An Hα surge event occurred at AR NOAA 11259 on 2011 July 22. According to the BBSO (Big Bear Solar Observatory) Hα line-center observations, three surges continuously ejected from the same region to the north of the main-sunspot of AR 11259. All of surges ejected along a straight trajectory, and looked like the reversed Eiffel Tower. The first and second surges had the same process. Two bright points firstly appeared to the north of the main-sunspot. After several minutes, a surge appeared between the two bright points, and then rapidly ejected when the two points got most brightness.When the surge reached the maximum height, it disappeared quickly. However, the third surge appeared without bright points, and its height was only half of the others. Compared with SDO/HMI (Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) line-of-sight magnetogram, more than one hour before the first surge appeared, a satellite bipolar magnetic field emerged from the surge-ejection region. The newly-emerging positive magnetic flux showed a distinct decrease several minutes earlier than the ejection of the surges. We assumed that the surges was associated with the reconnection between the newly-emerging bipolar magnetic field and the existing (sunspot) magnetic field.

The Potential of Wetlands in Reducing Storm Surge

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

threatened by erosion and damage due to storm waves, wind, and surge. The risk of damage and loss of life is exacerbated by many factors, including coastal...obtained when attempting to correlate hurricane translation speed, surge hydrograph at the coast, and surge elevations inland. However, a trend was...greater surface roughness. In addition to reducing wind speeds, the models eliminate the wind stress in forested wetlands which inhibit wind from

Association between Proximity to a Health Center and Early Childhood Mortality in Madagascar

PubMed Central

Kashima, Saori; Suzuki, Etsuji; Okayasu, Toshiharu; Jean Louis, Razafimahatratra; Eboshida, Akira; Subramanian, S. V.

2012-01-01

Objective To evaluate the association between proximity to a health center and early childhood mortality in Madagascar, and to assess the influence of household wealth, maternal educational attainment, and maternal health on the effects of distance. Methods From birth records of subjects in the Demographic and Health Survey, we identified 12565 singleton births from January 2004 to August 2009. After excluding 220 births that lacked global positioning system information for exposure assessment, odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for neonatal mortality and infant mortality were estimated using multilevel logistic regression models, with 12345 subjects (level 1), nested within 584 village locations (level 2), and in turn nested within 22 regions (level 3). We additionally stratified the subjects by the birth order. We estimated predicted probabilities of each outcome by a three-level model including cross-level interactions between proximity to a health center and household wealth, maternal educational attainment, and maternal anemia. Results Compared with those who lived >1.5–3.0 km from a health center, the risks for neonatal mortality and infant mortality tended to increase among those who lived further than 5.0 km from a health center; the adjusted ORs for neonatal mortality and infant mortality for those who lived >5.0–10.0 km away from a health center were 1.36 (95% CI: 0.92–2.01) and 1.42 (95% CI: 1.06–1.90), respectively. The positive associations were more pronounced among the second or later child. The distance effects were not modified by household wealth status, maternal educational attainment, or maternal health status. Conclusions Our study suggests that distance from a health center is a risk factor for early childhood mortality (primarily, infant mortality) in Madagascar by using a large-scale nationally representative dataset. The accessibility to health care in remote areas would be a key factor to achieve better

Reassessing Storm Surge Risk for New York City (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

2013-12-01

New York City (NYC) is highly vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) storm surge flooding. In a previous study, we coupled a (reanalysis- or GCM-driven) hurricane model with hydrodynamic models to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events under observed and projected climates and assess surge threat for NYC. The storm surge return levels under the current and future climates (IPCC AR4 A1B scenario) were obtained. The results showed that the distribution of surge levels may shift to higher values in the future by a magnitude comparable to the projected sea-level rise. The study focused on typical TCs that have a storm size of the climatological mean for the Atlantic Basin and pass within a 200-km radius of the Battery, NYC. In October 2012, Hurricane Sandy, a barely Category-1 storm that made landfall about 200-km southwest from the Battery, caused the highest surge flooding of the instrumental record (~3.5 m above the mean sea level or ~2.8 m surge over the high tide) at the Battery. The extreme surge was due to the fact that the storm was a 'hybrid' event, undergoing extensive extratropical transition when making landfall almost perpendicularly to the NJ coast with an unusually large size. Sandy's case calls for a reassessment of storm surge risk for NYC that account for the special features of the storms in this region. In this reassessment, we account for the effect of extratropical transition on the wind fields through improving the surface background wind estimation, which was assumed to be uniform for typical TCs, by developing a representation of the interaction between the highly localized potential vorticity anomaly of the TC and its environmental baroclinic fields. We account for the storm size variation through incorporating the full probability distribution of the size for the region. Our preliminary results show that estimated wind and surge return levels are much higher with the effect of extratropical transition. The effect of the storm size

Early mortality and morbidity after total hip arthroplasty in patients with femoral neck fracture

PubMed Central

Hailer, Nils P; Garland, Anne; Rogmark, Cecilia; Garellick, Göran; Kärrholm, Johan

2016-01-01

Background and purpose — Early postoperative mortality is relatively high after total hip arthroplasty (THA) that has been performed due to femoral neck fracture. However, this has rarely been investigated after adjustment for medical comorbidity and comparison with the mortality in an age-matched population. We therefore assessed early mortality in hip fracture patients treated with a THA, in the setting of a nationwide matched cohort study. Patients and methods — 24,699 patients who underwent THA due to a femoral neck fracture between 1992 and 2012 were matched with 118,518 controls. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to calculate cumulative unadjusted survival, and Cox regression models were fitted to compute hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), with adjustment for age, sex, comorbidity, and socioeconomic background. Results — 90-day survival was 96.3% (95% CI: 96.0–96.5) for THA cases and 98.7% (95% CI: 98.6–98.8) for control individuals, giving an adjusted HR of 2.2 (95% CI: 2.0–2.4) for THA cases compared to control individuals. Comorbidity burden increased in THA cases over time, but the adjusted risk of death within 90 days did not differ statistically significantly between the time periods investigated (1992–1998, 1999–2005, and 2006–2012). A Charlson comorbidity index of 3 or more, an American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade of 3 and above, male sex, an age of 80 years and above, an income below the first quartile, and a lower level of education were all associated with an increased risk of 90-day mortality. Interpretation — The adjusted early mortality in femoral neck fracture patients who underwent THA was about double that in a matched control population. Patients with femoral neck fracture but with no substantial comorbidity and an age of less than 80 years appear to have a low risk of early death. Patients older than 80 years and those with a Charlson comorbidity index of more than 2 have a high

Surging glaciers in Iceland - research status and future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ingolfsson, Olafur

2013-04-01

Twenty six Icelandic outlet glaciers, ranging from 0.5-1.500 km2, are known to surge, with terminal advances ranging from of few tens of meters to about 10 km. The geomorphic signatures of surges vary, from large-scale folded and thrusted end moraine systems, extensive dead-ice fields and drumlinized forefields to drift sheets where fast ice-flow indicators are largely missing. Case studies from the forefields of Brúarjökull, Eyjabakkajökull and Múlajökull surging glaciers will be presented. At Brúarjökull, extremely rapid ice flow during surge was sustained by overpressurized water causing decoupling beneath a thick sediment sequence that was coupled to the glacier. The ice-marginal position of the 1890 surge is marked by a sedimentary wedge formed within five days and a large moraine ridge that formed in about one day ("instantaneous end-moraine"). Three different qualitative and conceptual models are required to explain the genesis of the Eyjabakkajökull moraines: a narrow, single-crested moraine ridge at the distal end of a marginal sediment wedge formed in response to decoupling of the subglacial sediment from the bedrock and associated downglacier sediment transport; large lobate end moraine ridges with multiple, closely spaced, asymmetric crests formed by proglacial piggy-back thrusting; moraine ridges with different morphologies may reflect different members of an end moraine continuum. A parallel study highlighting the surge history of Eyjabakkajökull over the last 4400 years suggests climate control on surge frequencies. The Múlajökull studies concern an active drumlin field (>100 drumlins) that is being exposed as the glacier retreats. The drumlins form through repeated surges, where each surge causes deposition of till bed onto the drumlin while similtaneously eroding the sides. Finally, a new landsystem model for surging North Iceland cirque glaciers will be introduced. References Benediktsson,I. Ö., Schomacker, A., Lokrantz, H. & Ing

Neuro-, Trauma -, or Med/Surg-ICU: Does it matter where polytrauma patients with TBI are admitted? Secondary analysis of AAST-MITC decompressive craniectomy study

PubMed Central

Scalea, Tom; Sperry, Jason; Coimbra, Raul; Vercruysse, Gary; Jurkovich, Gregory J; Nirula, Ram

2016-01-01

Introduction Patients with non-traumatic acute intracranial pathology benefit from neurointensivist care. Similarly, trauma patients with and without TBI fare better when treated by a dedicated trauma team. No study has yet evaluated the role of specialized neurocritical (NICU) and trauma intensive care units (TICU) in the management of TBI patients, and it remains unclear which TBI patients are best served in NICU, TICU, or general (Med/Surg) ICU. Methods This study is a secondary analysis of The American Association for the Surgery of Trauma Multi-Institutional Trials Committee (AAST-MITC) decompressive craniectomy study. Twelve Level 1 trauma centers provided clinical data and head CT scans of patients with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) ≤13 and CT evidence of TBI. Non-ICU admissions were excluded. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to measure the association between ICU-type and survival and calculate the probability of death for increasing ISS. Polytrauma patients (ISS > 15) with TBI and isolated TBI patients (other AIS < 3) were analyzed separately. Results There were 3641 patients with CT evidence of TBI with 2951 admitted to an ICU. Prior to adjustment, patient demographics, injury severity, and survival differed significantly by unit type. After adjustment, unit-type, age and ISS remained independent predictors of death. Unit-type modified the effect of ISS on mortality. TBI-polytrauma patients admitted to a TICU had improved survival across increasing ISS (Fig1). Survival for isolated TBI patients was similar between TICU and NICU. Med/Surg ICU carried the greatest probability of death. Conclusion Polytrauma patients with TBI have lower mortality risk when admitted to a Trauma ICU. This survival benefit increases with increasing injury severity. Isolated TBI patients have similar mortality risk when admitted to a Neuro ICU compared to a Trauma ICU. Med/Surg ICU admission carries the highest mortality risk. PMID:28225527

Signs of eclampsia during singleton deliveries and early neonatal mortality in low- and middle-income countries from three WHO regions.

PubMed

Bellizzi, Saverio; Sobel, Howard L; Ali, Mohamed M

2017-10-01

To determine the prevalence of eclampsia symptoms and to explore associations between eclampsia and early neonatal mortality. The present secondary analysis included Demographic and Health Surveys data from 2005 to 2012; details of signs related to severe obstetric adverse events of singleton deliveries during interviewees' most recent delivery in the preceding 5 years were included. Data and delivery history were merged for pooled analyses. Convulsions-used as an indicator for having experienced eclampsia-and early neonatal mortality rates were compared, and a generalized random effect model, adjusted for heterogeneity between and within countries, was used to investigate the impact of presumed eclampsia on early neonatal mortality. The merged dataset included data from six surveys and 55 384 live deliveries that occurred in Colombia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mali, Niger, and Peru. Indications of eclampsia were recorded for 1.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-1.3), 1.7% (95% CI 1.5-2.1), and 1.7% (95% CI 1.5-2.1) of deliveries reported from the American, South East Asian, and African regions, respectively. Pooled analyses demonstrated that eclampsia was associated with increased risk of early neonatal mortality (adjusted risk ratio 2.1 95% CI 1.4-3.2). Increased risk of early neonatal mortality indicates a need for strategies targeting the early detection of eclampsia and early interventions. © 2017 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics.

Decreased early mortality associated with the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia at National Cancer Institute-designated cancer centers in California.

PubMed

Ho, Gwendolyn; Wun, Ted; Muffly, Lori; Li, Qian; Brunson, Ann; Rosenberg, Aaron S; Jonas, Brian A; Keegan, Theresa H M

2018-05-01

To the authors' knowledge, few population-based studies to date have evaluated the association between location of care, complications with induction therapy, and early mortality in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Using linked data from the California Cancer Registry and Patient Discharge Dataset (1999-2014), the authors identified adult (aged ≥18 years) patients with AML who received inpatient treatment within 30 days of diagnosis. A propensity score was created for treatment at a National Cancer Institute-designated cancer center (NCI-CC). Inverse probability-weighted, multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine associations between location of care, complications, and early mortality (death ≤60 days from diagnosis). Of the 7007 patients with AML, 1762 (25%) were treated at an NCI-CC. Patients with AML who were treated at NCI-CCs were more likely to be aged ≤65 years, live in higher socioeconomic status neighborhoods, have fewer comorbidities, and have public health insurance. Patients treated at NCI-CCs had higher rates of renal failure (23% vs 20%; P = .010) and lower rates of respiratory failure (11% vs 14%; P = .003) and cardiac arrest (1% vs 2%; P = .014). After adjustment for baseline characteristics, treatment at an NCI-CC was associated with lower early mortality (odds ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.57). The impact of complications on early mortality did not differ by location of care except for higher early mortality noted among patients with respiratory failure treated at non-NCI-CCs. The initial treatment of adult patients with AML at NCI-CCs is associated with a 53% reduction in the odds of early mortality compared with treatment at non-NCI-CCs. Lower early mortality may result from differences in hospital or provider experience and supportive care. Cancer 2018;124:1938-45. © 2018 American Cancer Society. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Early mortality experience in a large military cohort and a comparison of mortality data sources

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Complete and accurate ascertainment of mortality is critically important in any longitudinal study. Tracking of mortality is particularly essential among US military members because of unique occupational exposures (e.g., worldwide deployments as well as combat experiences). Our study objectives were to describe the early mortality experience of Panel 1 of the Millennium Cohort, consisting of participants in a 21-year prospective study of US military service members, and to assess data sources used to ascertain mortality. Methods A population-based random sample (n = 256,400) of all US military service members on service rosters as of October 1, 2000, was selected for study recruitment. Among this original sample, 214,388 had valid mailing addresses, were not in the pilot study, and comprised the group referred to in this study as the invited sample. Panel 1 participants were enrolled from 2001 to 2003, represented all armed service branches, and included active-duty, Reserve, and National Guard members. Crude death rates, as well as age- and sex-adjusted overall and age-adjusted, category-specific death rates were calculated and compared for participants (n = 77,047) and non-participants (n = 137,341) based on data from the Social Security Administration Death Master File, Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) files, and the Department of Defense Medical Mortality Registry, 2001-2006. Numbers of deaths identified by these three data sources, as well as the National Death Index, were compared for 2001-2004. Results There were 341 deaths among the participants for a crude death rate of 80.7 per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 72.2,89.3) compared to 820 deaths and a crude death rate of 113.2 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI: 105.4, 120.9) for non-participants. Age-adjusted, category-specific death rates highlighted consistently higher rates among study non-participants. Although there were advantages and disadvantages for each data source

Artificial Neural Network forecasting of storm surge water levels at major estuarine ports to supplement national tide-surge models and improve port resilience planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, Jon; Mawdsley, Robert; Fujiyama, Taku; Achuthan, Kamal

2017-04-01

Effective prediction of tidal storm surge is of considerable importance for operators of major ports, since much of their infrastructure is necessarily located close to sea level. Storm surge inundation can damage critical elements of this infrastructure and significantly disrupt port operations and downstream supply chains. The risk of surge inundation is typically approached using extreme value analysis, while short-term forecasting generally relies on coastal shelf-scale tide and surge models. However, extreme value analysis does not provide information on the duration of a surge event and can be sensitive to the assumptions made and the historic data available. Also, whilst regional tide and surge models perform well along open coasts, their fairly coarse spatial resolution means that they do not always provide accurate predictions for estuarine ports. As part of a NERC Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Innovation Programme project, we have developed a tool that is specifically designed to forecast the North Sea storm surges on major ports along the east coast of the UK. Of particular interest is the Port of Immingham, Humber estuary, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. A tidal surge in December 2013, with an estimated return period of 760 years, partly flooded the port, damaged infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This and other recent surge events highlight the need for additional tools to supplement the national UK Storm Tide Warning Service. Port operators are also keen to have access to less computationally expensive forecasting tools for scenario planning and to improve their resilience to actual events. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of machine learning methods based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to generate accurate short-term forecasts of extreme water levels at estuarine North Sea ports such as Immingham. An ANN is

A surge observed in H alpha and C IV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmieder, B.; Mein, P.; Vial, J. C.; Tandberg-Hanssen, E.

1982-01-01

Results are presented of simultaneous measurements of H-alpha (MSDP at Meudon) and C IV (UVSP onboard SMM) of Active Region 2701 made on October 2, 1980. Isodensity and velocity maps were obtained for both lines and these maps were superimposed. Results show a good correlation between the H-alpha and C IV velocities with a surge being observed for 10 minutes. The base of the surge was determined to be located in a bright point in C IV and H-alpha, while the escaping matter followed the same channel ('absorbing' in H-alpha, 'emitting' in C IV). It was found that the velocity along the surge was about 80 km/s in H-alpha and 100 km/s in C IV. In addition, a loop appeared in C IV during the surge. It is concluded that the vertical pressure gradient was capable of driving the surge.

Hazard Regression Models of Early Mortality in Trauma Centers

PubMed Central

Clark, David E; Qian, Jing; Winchell, Robert J; Betensky, Rebecca A

2013-01-01

Background Factors affecting early hospital deaths after trauma may be different from factors affecting later hospital deaths, and the distribution of short and long prehospital times may vary among hospitals. Hazard regression (HR) models may therefore be more useful than logistic regression (LR) models for analysis of trauma mortality, especially when treatment effects at different time points are of interest. Study Design We obtained data for trauma center patients from the 2008–9 National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB). Cases were included if they had complete data for prehospital times, hospital times, survival outcome, age, vital signs, and severity scores. Cases were excluded if pulseless on admission, transferred in or out, or ISS<9. Using covariates proposed for the Trauma Quality Improvement Program and an indicator for each hospital, we compared LR models predicting survival at 8 hours after injury to HR models with survival censored at 8 hours. HR models were then modified to allow time-varying hospital effects. Results 85,327 patients in 161 hospitals met inclusion criteria. Crude hazards peaked initially, then steadily declined. When hazard ratios were assumed constant in HR models, they were similar to odds ratios in LR models associating increased mortality with increased age, firearm mechanism, increased severity, more deranged physiology, and estimated hospital-specific effects. However, when hospital effects were allowed to vary by time, HR models demonstrated that hospital outliers were not the same at different times after injury. Conclusions HR models with time-varying hazard ratios reveal inconsistencies in treatment effects, data quality, and/or timing of early death among trauma centers. HR models are generally more flexible than LR models, can be adapted for censored data, and potentially offer a better tool for analysis of factors affecting early death after injury. PMID:23036828

Effectiveness of early detection on breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia (Spain)

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background At present, it is complicated to use screening trials to determine the optimal age intervals and periodicities of breast cancer early detection. Mathematical models are an alternative that has been widely used. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of different breast cancer early detection strategies in Catalonia (Spain), in terms of breast cancer mortality reduction (MR) and years of life gained (YLG), using the stochastic models developed by Lee and Zelen (LZ). Methods We used the LZ model to estimate the cumulative probability of death for a cohort exposed to different screening strategies after T years of follow-up. We also obtained the cumulative probability of death for a cohort with no screening. These probabilities were used to estimate the possible breast cancer MR and YLG by age, period and cohort of birth. The inputs of the model were: incidence of, mortality from and survival after breast cancer, mortality from other causes, distribution of breast cancer stages at diagnosis and sensitivity of mammography. The outputs were relative breast cancer MR and YLG. Results Relative breast cancer MR varied from 20% for biennial exams in the 50 to 69 age interval to 30% for annual exams in the 40 to 74 age interval. When strategies differ in periodicity but not in the age interval of exams, biennial screening achieved almost 80% of the annual screening MR. In contrast to MR, the effect on YLG of extending screening from 69 to 74 years of age was smaller than the effect of extending the screening from 50 to 45 or 40 years. Conclusion In this study we have obtained a measure of the effect of breast cancer screening in terms of mortality and years of life gained. The Lee and Zelen mathematical models have been very useful for assessing the impact of different modalities of early detection on MR and YLG in Catalonia (Spain). PMID:19754959

Cumulative impacts of hurricanes on Florida mangrove ecosystems: Sediment deposition, storm surges and vegetation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, T. J.; Anderson, G.H.; Balentine, K.; Tiling, G.; Ward, G.A.; Whelan, K.R.T.

2009-01-01

Hurricanes have shaped the structure of mangrove forests in the Everglades via wind damage, storm surges and sediment deposition. Immediate effects include changes to stem size-frequency distributions and to species relative abundance and density. Long-term impacts to mangroves are poorly understood at present. We examine impacts of Hurricane Wilma on mangroves and compare the results to findings from three previous storms (Labor Day, Donna, Andrew). Surges during Wilma destroyed ??? 1,250 ha of mangroves and set back recovery that started following Andrew. Data from permanent plots affected by Andrew and Wilma showed no differences among species or between hurricanes for stem mortality or basal area lost. Hurricane damage was related to hydro-geomorphic type of forest. Basin mangroves suffered significantly more damage than riverine or island mangroves. The hurricane by forest type interaction was highly significant. Andrew did slightly more damage to island mangroves. Wilma did significantly more damage to basin forests. This is most likely a result of the larger and more spatially extensive storm surge produced by Wilma. Forest damage was not related to amount of sediment deposited. Analyses of reports from Donna and the Labor Day storm indicate that some sites have recovered following catastrophic disturbance. Other sites have been permanently converted into a different ecosystem, namely intertidal mudflats. Our results indicate that mangroves are not in a steady state as has been recently claimed. ?? 2009 The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Idaho Surges Ahead with Electric Vehicle

Science.gov Websites

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Detecting early warning signals of tree mortality in boreal North America using multiscale satellite data.

PubMed

Rogers, Brendan M; Solvik, Kylen; Hogg, Edward H; Ju, Junchang; Masek, Jeffrey G; Michaelian, Michael; Berner, Logan T; Goetz, Scott J

2018-06-01

Increasing tree mortality from global change drivers such as drought and biotic infestations is a widespread phenomenon, including in the boreal zone where climate changes and feedbacks to the Earth system are relatively large. Despite the importance for science and management communities, our ability to forecast tree mortality at landscape to continental scales is limited. However, two independent information streams have the potential to inform and improve mortality forecasts: repeat forest inventories and satellite remote sensing. Time series of tree-level growth patterns indicate that productivity declines and related temporal dynamics often precede mortality years to decades before death. Plot-level productivity, in turn, has been related to satellite-based indices such as the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Here we link these two data sources to show that early warning signals of mortality are evident in several NDVI-based metrics up to 24 years before death. We focus on two repeat forest inventories and three NDVI products across western boreal North America where productivity and mortality dynamics are influenced by periodic drought. These data sources capture a range of forest conditions and spatial resolution to highlight the sensitivity and limitations of our approach. Overall, results indicate potential to use satellite NDVI for early warning signals of mortality. Relationships are broadly consistent across inventories, species, and spatial resolutions, although the utility of coarse-scale imagery in the heterogeneous aspen parkland was limited. Longer-term NDVI data and annually remeasured sites with high mortality levels generate the strongest signals, although we still found robust relationships at sites remeasured at a typical 5 year frequency. The approach and relationships developed here can be used as a basis for improving forest mortality models and monitoring systems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Discontinuous Galerkin methods for modeling Hurricane storm surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, Clint; Kubatko, Ethan J.; Westerink, Joannes J.; Trahan, Corey; Mirabito, Christopher; Michoski, Craig; Panda, Nishant

2011-09-01

Storm surge due to hurricanes and tropical storms can result in significant loss of life, property damage, and long-term damage to coastal ecosystems and landscapes. Computer modeling of storm surge can be used for two primary purposes: forecasting of surge as storms approach land for emergency planning and evacuation of coastal populations, and hindcasting of storms for determining risk, development of mitigation strategies, coastal restoration and sustainability. Storm surge is modeled using the shallow water equations, coupled with wind forcing and in some events, models of wave energy. In this paper, we will describe a depth-averaged (2D) model of circulation in spherical coordinates. Tides, riverine forcing, atmospheric pressure, bottom friction, the Coriolis effect and wind stress are all important for characterizing the inundation due to surge. The problem is inherently multi-scale, both in space and time. To model these problems accurately requires significant investments in acquiring high-fidelity input (bathymetry, bottom friction characteristics, land cover data, river flow rates, levees, raised roads and railways, etc.), accurate discretization of the computational domain using unstructured finite element meshes, and numerical methods capable of capturing highly advective flows, wetting and drying, and multi-scale features of the solution. The discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method appears to allow for many of the features necessary to accurately capture storm surge physics. The DG method was developed for modeling shocks and advection-dominated flows on unstructured finite element meshes. It easily allows for adaptivity in both mesh ( h) and polynomial order ( p) for capturing multi-scale spatial events. Mass conservative wetting and drying algorithms can be formulated within the DG method. In this paper, we will describe the application of the DG method to hurricane storm surge. We discuss the general formulation, and new features which have been added to

Effect of hurricane paths on storm surge response at Tianjin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xingru; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou

2012-06-01

A hurricane induced storm surge simulation system was developed for Tianjin coast, which consists of a hurricane model and a storm surge model. The peak storm surge result of the simulation agreed well with that of the observation. Three observed paths (Rita, Mimie and WINNIE) and a hypothetical path (Rita2) were chosen as the selective hurricane paths according to their positions relative to Tianjin. The sensitivity of Tianjin storm surge to the four paths was investigated using the validated storm surge simulation system. Three groups of experiments were done. In group one, the models were forced by the wind field and air pressure; in group two and three the models were forced by the wind only and the air pressure only respectively. In the experiments, the hurricane moved with a fixed speed and an intensity of 50 year return period. The simulation results show that path of the type Rita2 is the easiest to cause storm surge disaster in Tianjin, and the effect of air pressure forcing is most evident for path of the type Rita in Tianjin storm surge process. The above conclusions were analyzed through the evolution of the wind fields and the air pressure distributions. Comparing the experiment results of Group one, two and three, it can be seen that the storm surge is mainly induced by the wind forcing and the nonlinear interaction between the effect of wind forcing and air pressure forcing on the storm surge tends to weaken the storm surge.

Storm Surge Simulation and Ensemble Forecast for Hurricane Irene (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

2012-12-01

Hurricane Irene, raking the U.S. East Coast during the period of 26-30 August 2011, caused widespread damage estimated at $15.8 billion and was responsible for 49 direct deaths (Avila and Cangialosi, 2011). Although the most severe impact in the northeastern U.S. was catastrophic inland flooding, with its unusually large size, Irene also generated high waves and storm surges and caused moderate to major coastal flooding. The most severe surge damage occurred between Oregon Inlet and Cape Hatteras in North Carolina (NC). Significant storm surge damage also occurred along southern Chesapeake Bay, and moderate and high surges were observed along the coast from New Jersey (NJ) northward. A storm surge of 0.9-1.8 m caused hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage in New York City (NYC) and Long Island, despite the fact that the storm made landfall to the west of NYC with peak winds of no more than tropical storm strength. Making three U.S. landfalls (in NC, NJ, and NY), Hurricane Irene provides a unique case for studying storm surge along the eastern U.S. coastline. We apply the hydrodynamic model ADCIRC (Luettich et al. 1992) to conduct surge simulations for Pamlico Sound, Chesapeake Bay, and NYC, using best track data and parametric wind and pressure models. The results agree well with tidal-gauge observations. Then we explore a new methodology for storm surge ensemble forecasting and apply it to Irene. This method applies a statistical/deterministic hurricane model (Emanuel et al. 2006) to generate large numbers of storm ensembles under the storm environment described by the 51 ECMWF ensemble members. The associated surge ensembles are then generated with the ADCIRC model. The numerical simulation is computationally efficient, making the method applicable to real-time storm surge ensemble forecasting. We report the results for NYC in this presentation. The ADCIRC simulation using the best track data generates a storm surge of 1.3 m and a storm tide of 2.1 m

The Development of High-speed Full-function Storm Surge Model and the Case Study of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Lin, C. Y.; Chuang, M. H.; Lin, C. W.

2016-02-01

An ideal storm surge operational model should feature as: 1. Large computational domain which covers the complete typhoon life cycle. 2. Supporting both parametric and atmospheric models. 3. Capable of calculating inundation area for risk assessment. 4. Tides are included for accurate inundation simulation. Literature review shows that not many operational models reach the goals for the fast calculation, and most of the models have limited functions. In this paper, a well-developed COMCOT (COrnell Multi-grid Coupled of Tsunami Model) tsunami model is chosen as the kernel to establish a storm surge model which solves the nonlinear shallow water equations on both spherical and Cartesian coordinates directly. The complete evolution of storm surge including large-scale propagation and small-scale offshore run-up can be simulated by nested-grid scheme. The global tide model TPXO 7.2 established by Oregon State University is coupled to provide astronomical boundary conditions. The atmospheric model named WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) is also coupled to provide metrological fields. The high-efficiency thin-film method is adopted to evaluate the storm surge inundation. Our in-house model has been optimized by OpenMp (Open Multi-Processing) with the performance which is 10 times faster than the original version and makes it an early-warning storm surge model. In this study, the thorough simulation of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan is performed. The detailed results will be presented in Oceanic Science Meeting of 2016 in terms of surge propagation and high-resolution inundation areas.

Surge-type glaciers in the Tien Shan (Central Asia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, Kriti; Bolch, Tobias

2016-04-01

Surge-type glaciers in High Mountain Asia are mostly observed in Karakoram and Pamir. However, few surge-type glaciers also exist in the Tien Shan, but have not comprehensively studied in detail in the recent literature. We identified surge-type glaciers in the Tien Shan either from available literature or by manual interpretation using available satellite images (such as Corona, Hexagon, Landsat, SPOT, IRS) for the period 1960 to 2014. We identified 39 possible surge-type glaciers, showing typical characteristics like looped moraines. Twenty-two of them rapidly advanced during different periods or a surge was clearly described in the literature. For the remaining possible surge-type glaciers either the advance, in terms of time and length, were not mentioned in detail in the literature, or the glaciers have remained either stable or retreated during the entire period of our study. Most of the surge-type glaciers cluster in the Inner Tien Shan (especially in the Ak-Shiirak rage) and the Central Tien Shan, are in size and are facing North, West or North West. Pronounced surge events were observed for North Inylchek and Samoilowitsch glaciers, both of which are located in the Central Tien Shan. Samoilowitsch Glacier retreated by more than 3 km between 1960 (length ~8.9 km) and 1992 (~5.8 km), advanced by almost 3 km until 2006 and slightly retreated thereafter. The most pronounced advance occurred between 2000 and 2002. DEM differencing (based on SRTM3 data and stereo Hexagon and Cartosat-1 data) revealed a significant thickening in the middle reaches (reservoir area) of the glacier between 1973 and 2000 while the surface significantly lowered in the middle and upper parts of the glacier between 2000 and 2006. Hence, the ice mass was transferred to the lower reaches (receiving area) and caused the advance with a maximum thickening of more than 80 m. The ~30 km long North Inylchek Glacier retreated since 1943 and showed a very rapid advance of ~3.5 km especially in

Preliminary Study on Coupling Wave-Tide-Storm Surges Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, S.; Park, S.; Seo, J.; Kim, K.

2008-12-01

The Korean Peninsula is surrounded by the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and East Sea. This complex oceanographic system includes large tides in the Yellow Sea and seasonally varying monsoon and typhoon events. For Korea's coastal regions, floods caused by wave and storm surges are among the most serious threats. To predict more accurate wave and storm surge, the development of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system is essential. For the time being, wave and storm surges predictions are still made separately in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and most operational institute. However, many researchers have emphasized the effects of tides and storm surges on wind waves and recommended further investigations into the effects of wave-tide-storm surges interactions and coupling module on wave heights. However, tidal height and current give a great effect on the wave prediction in the Yellow sea where is very high tide and related research is not enough. At present, KMA has operated the wave (RWAM : Regional Wave Model) and storm surges/tide prediction system (RTSM : Regional Tide/Storm Surges Model) for ocean forecasting. The RWAM is WAVEWATCH III which is a third generation wave model developed by Tolman (1989). The RTSM is based on POM (Princeton Ocean Model, Blumberg and Mellor, 1987). The RWAM and RTSM cover the northwestern Pacific Ocean from 115°E to 150°E and from 20°N to 52°N. The horizontal grid intervals are 1/12° in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions. The development, testing and application of a coupling module in which wave-tide-storm surges are incorporated within the frame of KMA Ocean prediction system, has been considered as a step forward in respect of ocean forecasting. In addition, advanced wave prediction model will be applicable to the effect of ocean in the weather forecasting system. The main purpose of this study is to show how the coupling module developed and to report on a series of experiments dealing with the

A Two-Center Randomized Trial of an Additional Early Dose of Measles Vaccine: Effects on Mortality and Measles Antibody Levels.

PubMed

Fisker, Ane B; Nebie, Eric; Schoeps, Anja; Martins, Cesario; Rodrigues, Amabelia; Zakane, Alphonse; Kagone, Moubassira; Byberg, Stine; Thysen, Sanne M; Tiendrebeogo, Justin; Coulibaly, Boubacar; Sankoh, Osman; Becher, Heiko; Whittle, Hilton C; van der Klis, Fiona R M; Benn, Christine S; Sie, Ali; Müller, Olaf; Aaby, Peter

2018-05-02

In addition to protecting against measles, measles vaccine (MV) may have beneficial nonspecific effects. We tested the effect of an additional early MV on mortality and measles antibody levels. Children aged 4-7 months at rural health and demographic surveillance sites in Burkina Faso and Guinea-Bissau were randomized 1:1 to an extra early standard dose of MV (Edmonston-Zagreb strain) or no extra MV 4 weeks after the third diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-hepatitis B-Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine. All children received routine MV at 9 months. We assessed mortality through home visits and compared mortality from enrollment to age 3 years using Cox proportional hazards models, censoring for subsequent nontrial MV. Subgroups of participants had blood sampled to assess measles antibody levels. Among 8309 children enrolled from 18 July 2012 to 3 December 2015, we registered 145 deaths (mortality rate: 16/1000 person-years). The mortality was lower than anticipated and did not differ by randomization group (hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% confidence interval, 0.75-1.46). At enrollment, 4% (16/447) of children in Burkina Faso and 21% (90/422) in Guinea-Bissau had protective measles antibody levels. By age 9 months, no measles-unvaccinated/-unexposed child had protective levels, while 92% (306/333) of early MV recipients had protective levels. At final follow-up, 98% (186/189) in the early MV group and 97% (196/202) in the control group had protective levels. Early MV did not reduce all-cause mortality. Most children were susceptible to measles infection at age 4-7 months and responded with high antibody levels to early MV. NCT01644721.

Linking egg thiamine and fatty acid concentrations of Lake Michigan lake trout with early life stage mortality.

PubMed

Czesny, Sergiusz; Dettmers, John M; Rinchard, Jacques; Dabrowski, Konrad

2009-12-01

The natural reproduction of lake trout Salvelinus namaycush in Lake Michigan is thought to be compromised by nutritional deficiency associated with inadequate levels of thiamine (vitamin B1) in their eggs. However, mortality driven by thiamine deficiency (commonly referred to as early mortality syndrome [EMS]) is not the only significant cause of low lake trout survival at early life stages. In this study, we sought to better understand the combined effects of variable levels of thiamine and fatty acids in lake trout eggs on prehatch, posthatch, and swim-up-stage mortality. We sampled the eggs of 29 lake trout females from southwestern Lake Michigan. The concentrations of free thiamine and its vitamers (e.g., thiamine monophosphate [TMP] and thiamine pyrophosphate [TPP]) as well as fatty acid profiles were determined in sampled eggs. Fertilized eggs and embryos were monitored through the advanced swim-up stage (1,000 degree-days). Three distinct periods of mortality were identified: prehatch (0-400 degree-days), immediately posthatch (401-600 degree-days), and swim-up (601-1,000 degree-days). Stepwise multiple regression analysis revealed (1) that cis-7-hexadecenoic acid in both neutral lipids (NL) and phospholipids (PL) correlated with prehatch mortality, (2) that docosapentaenoic acid in PL and docosahexaenoic acid in NL correlated with posthatch mortality, and (3) that total lipids, TPP, and palmitoleic acid in NL, linoleic acid, and palmitic acid in PL correlated with the frequency of EMS. These results indicate the complexity of early life stage mortality in lake trout and suggest that inadequate levels of key fatty acids in eggs, along with variable thiamine content, contribute to the low survival of lake trout progeny in Lake Michigan.

Centrifugal compressor controller for minimizing power consumption while avoiding surge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haley, P.F.; Junk, B.S.; Renaud, M.A.

1987-08-18

For use with a variable capacity centrifugal compressor driven by an electric motor, a controller is described for adjusting the capacity of the compressor to satisfy a demand, minimize electric power consumption and avoid a surge condition. The controller consists of: a. means for sensing an operating parameter that is indicative of the capacity of the compressor; b. means for setting a selected setpoint that represents a desired value of the operating parameter; c. surge sensing means for detecting an impending surge by sensing fluctuation in the electric current supplied to the compressor motor, wherein an impending surge is detectedmore » whenever fluctuations in excess of a predetermined amplitude occur in excess of a predetermined frequency; and d. control means, responsive to the operating parameter sensing means, the setpoint setting means, and the surge sensing means, for controlling the compressor, such that its capacity is minimally above a level that would cause a surge condition yet is sufficient to maintain the operating parameter at the setpoint.« less

The importance of early life family factors in the association between cardiovascular risk factors and early cardiovascular mortality.

PubMed

Kjøllesdal, Marte K R; Ariansen, Inger; Mortensen, Laust H; Næss, Øyvind

2017-01-01

To explore the importance of early life factors shared by siblings, such as parental socioeconomic position, parental practices, housing and neighbourhood, for the association between cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and mortality from CVD, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease. Norwegian health surveys (1974-2003) were linked with data from the Norwegian Family Based Life Course Study and the Cause of Death Registry. Participants with at least one full sibling among survey participants (n=2 71 643) were included. Data on CVD risk factors, body mass index (BMI), height, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol (TC) were stratified into 'low', 'medium' and 'high' risk, and smoking to 'daily smoking' and 'not daily smoking'. Mean age of participants was 41 years, mean follow-up time was 19 years and during follow-up 2512 died from CVD. For each category of increased risk factor level, the per step HR of CVD mortality was increased by 1.91 (95% CI 1.78 to 2.05) for SBP, 1.67 (1.58 to 1.76) for TC, 1.44 (1.36 to 1.53) for BMI, 1.26 (1.18 to 1.35) for height and 2.89 (2.66 to 3.14) for smoking. In analyses where each sibship (groups of full siblings) had a group-specific baseline hazard, these associations were attenuated to 1.74, 1.51, 1.29, 1.18 and 2.63, respectively. The associations between risk factors and IHD mortality followed the same pattern. Early life family factors explained a small part of the association between risk factors and mortality from CVD and IHD in a relatively young sample.

Surges of outlet glaciers from the Drangajökull ice cap, northwest Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brynjólfsson, Skafti; Schomacker, Anders; Korsgaard, Niels J.; Ingólfsson, Ólafur

2016-09-01

Surface elevation and volume changes of the Drangajökull surge-type glaciers, Reykjarfjarðarjökull and Leirufjarðarjökull, were studied by comparing digital elevation models that pre-date and post-date their most recent surges. Annual glacier-frontal measurements were used to estimate average ice velocities during the last surge of the glaciers. The observations show a distinct ice discharge, most of which was from the upper reservoir areas, down to the receiving areas during the surges. The surface draw-down in the reservoir areas was usually 10-30 m during the surges, while the thickening of the receiving areas was significantly more variable, on the order of 10-120 m. Despite a negative geodetic net mass balance derived from the digital elevation models, the reservoir areas have been gaining mass since the surge terminations. This surface thickening along with considerable ablation of the receiving areas will most likely return the glacier surface profiles to the pre-surge stage. Our results indicate that (a) greatest surface thinning in the upper reservoir areas of Drangajökull rather than proximal to the equilibrium line during Vatnajökull surges and (b) development of Drangajökull surges that resembles Svalbard surge-type glaciers rather than Vatnajökull surge-type glaciers. The contrasting surge characteristics could be explained by differences in glacier geometry, topography and substratum of the Drangajökull and Vatnajökull surge-type glaciers.

14 CFR 33.65 - Surge and stall characteristics.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Surge and stall characteristics. 33.65 Section 33.65 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: AIRCRAFT ENGINES Design and Construction; Turbine Aircraft Engines § 33.65 Surge and...

14 CFR 33.65 - Surge and stall characteristics.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Surge and stall characteristics. 33.65 Section 33.65 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: AIRCRAFT ENGINES Design and Construction; Turbine Aircraft Engines § 33.65 Surge and...

14 CFR 33.65 - Surge and stall characteristics.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Surge and stall characteristics. 33.65 Section 33.65 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: AIRCRAFT ENGINES Design and Construction; Turbine Aircraft Engines § 33.65 Surge and...

Early detection of emerging zoonotic diseases with animal morbidity and mortality monitoring.

PubMed

Bisson, Isabelle-Anne; Ssebide, Benard J; Marra, Peter P

2015-03-01

Diseases transmitted between animals and people have made up more than 50% of emerging infectious diseases in humans over the last 60 years and have continued to arise in recent months. Yet, public health and animal disease surveillance programs continue to operate independently. Here, we assessed whether recent emerging zoonotic pathogens (n = 143) are known to cause morbidity or mortality in their animal host and if so, whether they were first detected with an animal morbidity/mortality event. We show that although sick or dead animals are often associated with these pathogens (52%), only 9% were first detected from an animal morbidity or mortality event prior to or concurrent with signs of illness in humans. We propose that an animal morbidity and mortality reporting program will improve detection and should be an essential component of early warning systems for zoonotic diseases. With the use of widespread low-cost technology, such a program could engage both the public and professionals and be easily tested and further incorporated as part of surveillance efforts by public health officials.

Early detection strategy and mortality reduction in severe sepsis.

PubMed

Westphal, Glauco Adrieno; Feijó, Janaína; Andrade, Patrícia Silva de; Trindade, Louise; Suchard, Cezar; Monteiro, Márcio Andrei Gil; Martins, Sheila Fonseca; Nunes, Fernanda; Caldeira Filho, Milton

2009-06-01

To evaluate the impact of implementing an institutional policy for detection of severe sepsis and septic shock. Study before (stage I), after (stage II) with prospective data collection in a 195 bed public hospital.. Stage I: Patients with severe sepsis or septic shock were included consecutively over 15 months and treated according to the Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines. Stage II: In the 10 subsequent months, patients with severe sepsis or septic shock were enrolled based on an active search for signs suggesting infection (SSI) in hospitalized patients. The two stages were compared for demographic variables, time needed for recognition of at least two signs suggesting infection (SSI-Δt), compliance to the bundles of 6 and 24 hours and mortality. We identified 124 patients with severe sepsis or septic shock, 68 in stage I and 56 in stage II. The demographic variables were similar in both stages. The Δt-SSI was 34 ± 54 hours in stage I and 7 ± 8.4 hours in stage II (p <0.001). There was no difference in compliance to the bundles. In parallel there was significant reduction of mortality rates at 28 days (54.4% versus 30%, p <0.02) and hospital (67.6% versus 41%, p <0.003). The strategy used helped to identify early risk of sepsis and resulted in decreased mortality associated with severe sepsis and septic shock.

Early Childbearing, Marital Status, and Women's Health and Mortality after Age 50

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henretta, John C.

2007-01-01

This article examines the relationship between a woman's childbearing history and her later health and mortality, with primary focus on whether the association between them is due to early and later socioeconomic status. Data are drawn from the Health and Retirement Study birth cohort of 1931-1941. Results indicate that, conditional on reaching…

Spatial variations in mortality in pelagic early life stages of a marine fish (Gadus morhua)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langangen, Øystein; Stige, Leif C.; Yaragina, Natalia A.; Ottersen, Geir; Vikebø, Frode B.; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2014-09-01

Mortality of pelagic eggs and larvae of marine fish is often assumed to be constant both in space and time due to lacking information. This may, however, be a gross oversimplification, as early life stages are likely to experience large variations in mortality both in time and space. In this paper we develop a method for estimating the spatial variability in mortality of eggs and larvae. The method relies on survey data and physical-biological particle-drift models to predict the drift of ichthyoplankton. Furthermore, the method was used to estimate the spatially resolved mortality field in the egg and larval stages of Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua). We analyzed data from the Barents Sea for the period between 1959 and 1993 when there are two surveys available: a spring and a summer survey. An individual-based physical-biological particle-drift model, tailored to the egg and larval stages of Barents Sea cod, was used to predict the drift trajectories from the observed stage-specific distributions in spring to the time of observation in the summer, a drift time of approximately 45 days. We interpreted the spatial patterns in the differences between the predicted and observed abundance distributions in summer as reflecting the spatial patterns in mortality over the drift period. Using the estimated mortality fields, we show that the spatial variations in mortality might have a significant impact on survival to later life stages and we suggest that there may be trade-offs between increased early survival in off shore regions and reduced probability of ending up in the favorable nursing grounds in the Barents Sea. In addition, we show that accounting for the estimated mortality field, improves the correlation between a simulated recruitment index and observation-based indices of juvenile abundance.

Storm surges in the White and Barents Seas: formation, statistics, analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korablina, Anastasia; Arkhipkin, Victor

2017-04-01

Arctic seas storm surges investigation are high priority in Russia due to the active development of offshore oil and gas, construction of facilities in the coastal zone, as well as for the navigation safety. It is important to study the surges variability, to predict this phenomena and subsequent economic losses, thus including such information into the Russian Arctic Development Program 2020. White and Barents Seas storm surges are caused mainly by deep cyclones of two types: "diving" from the north (88% of all cyclones) and Atlantic from the west. The surge height was defined as the excess of the level that was obtained as the difference between the observed level and subtracting tide level and low-frequency level. The period of low-frequency level oscillation was determined by spectral analysis of the in-situ data. ADCIRC model is used for calculating the storm surge height. We did the calculations on unstructured grid with variable step from 50 to 5000 m. The ADCIRC model was based on the data on wind field, the sea level pressure, the concentration of ice reanalysis CFSR (1979-2010) in increments 0.3°, CFSv2 (2011-2015) in increments 0.2°. On the boundary conditions harmonic constants from Finite Element Solution tide model 2004 (FES2004) in increments 1/8° were set. The following stations on the coast Varandey, Pechora Bay, Chosha Bay, Severodvinsk, Onega, Solovki and other were selected for the storm surges statistical analysis in the period 1979-2015. The number of storm surges (> 0.3 m) long-term variability was obtained, the number of surges at a height (m) range (0.3-0.6, 0.6-0.9, 0.9-1.2, >1.2) was estimated. It shows that 1980 and 1998 are the years with the fewest number storms. For example, the largest number of storm surge (53) was observed in 1995 in Varandey. The height of the surge, possible only once in 100 years, is counted. This maximum height (m) of the surge was noted in Varandey (4.1), Chosha Bay (3.4), Barents Sea, Onega Bay (2

Developing a Mass Casualty Surge Capacity Protocol for Emergency Medical Services to Use for Patient Distribution.

PubMed

Shartar, Samuel E; Moore, Brooks L; Wood, Lori M

2017-12-01

Metropolitan areas must be prepared to manage large numbers of casualties related to a major incident. Most US cities do not have adequate trauma center capacity to manage large-scale mass casualty incidents (MCIs). Creating surge capacity requires the distribution of casualties to hospitals that are not designated as trauma centers. Our objectives were to extrapolate MCI response research into operational objectives for MCI distribution plan development; formulate a patient distribution model based on research, hospital capacities, and resource availability; and design and disseminate a casualty distribution tool for use by emergency medical services (EMS) personnel to distribute patients to the appropriate level of care. Working with hospitals within the region, we refined emergency department surge capacity for MCIs and developed a prepopulated tool for EMS providers to use to distribute higher-acuity casualties to trauma centers and lower-acuity casualties to nontrauma hospitals. A mechanism to remove a hospital from the list of available resources, if it is overwhelmed with patients who self-transport to the location, also was put into place. The number of critically injured survivors from an MCI has proven to be consistent, averaging 7% to 10%. Moving critically injured patients to level 1 trauma centers can result in a 25% reduction in mortality, when compared with care at nontrauma hospitals. US cities face major gaps in the surge capacity needed to manage an MCI. Sixty percent of "walking wounded" casualties self-transport to the closest hospital(s) to the incident. Directing critically ill patients to designated trauma centers has the potential to reduce mortality associated with the event. When applied to MCI responses, damage-control principles reduce resource utilization and optimize surge capacity. A universal system for mass casualty triage was identified and incorporated into the region's EMS. Flagship regional coordinating hospitals were designated

Verification of an ensemble prediction system for storm surge forecast in the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mel, Riccardo; Lionello, Piero

2014-12-01

In the Adriatic Sea, storm surges present a significant threat to Venice and to the flat coastal areas of the northern coast of the basin. Sea level forecast is of paramount importance for the management of daily activities and for operating the movable barriers that are presently being built for the protection of the city. In this paper, an EPS (ensemble prediction system) for operational forecasting of storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea is presented and applied to a 3-month-long period (October-December 2010). The sea level EPS is based on the HYPSE (hydrostatic Padua Sea elevation) model, which is a standard single-layer nonlinear shallow water model, whose forcings (mean sea level pressure and surface wind fields) are provided by the ensemble members of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) EPS. Results are verified against observations at five tide gauges located along the Croatian and Italian coasts of the Adriatic Sea. Forecast uncertainty increases with the predicted value of the storm surge and with the forecast lead time. The EMF (ensemble mean forecast) provided by the EPS has a rms (root mean square) error lower than the DF (deterministic forecast), especially for short (up to 3 days) lead times. Uncertainty for short lead times of the forecast and for small storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty of the initial condition of the hydrodynamical model. Uncertainty for large lead times and large storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty in the meteorological forcings. The EPS spread increases with the rms error of the forecast. For large lead times the EPS spread and the forecast error substantially coincide. However, the EPS spread in this study, which does not account for uncertainty in the initial condition, underestimates the error during the early part of the forecast and for small storm surge values. On the contrary, it overestimates the rms error for large surge values. The PF (probability forecast) of the EPS

Surge of Bering Glacier and Bagley Ice Field: Parameterization of surge characteristics based on automated analysis of crevasse image data and laser altimeter data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stachura, M.; Herzfeld, U. C.; McDonald, B.; Weltman, A.; Hale, G.; Trantow, T.

2012-12-01

The dynamical processes that occur during the surge of a large, complex glacier system are far from being understood. The aim of this paper is to derive a parameterization of surge characteristics that captures the principle processes and can serve as the basis for a dynamic surge model. Innovative mathematical methods are introduced that facilitate derivation of such a parameterization from remote-sensing observations. Methods include automated geostatistical characterization and connectionist-geostatistical classification of dynamic provinces and deformation states, using the vehicle of crevasse patterns. These methods are applied to analyze satellite and airborne image and laser altimeter data collected during the current surge of Bering Glacier and Bagley Ice Field, Alaska.

Effect of Tide Elevation on Extratropical Storm Surge in Northwest Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

2016-12-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the major storm surge-generating meteorological events in northwest Europe. The total water level increase induced by these ETCs is significantly influenced by the local tidal range, which exceeds 8 meters along the southwestern UK coastline. In particular, a surge-generating ETC during high tide may put coastal assets and infrastructure in risk. Also, during low tide, the risk of surge induced by extreme ETC events is diminished. Here, the effect of tidal elevation on storm surge is investigated at 196 tide gauges in northwest Europe. A numerical, hydrodynamic model was developed using Delft3D-FM framework to simulate the coastal hydrodynamics during ETCs. Then, 1750 historical events were simulated to investigate the pattern of coastal inundation. Results suggest that in areas with a large tidal range ( 8 meters) and during the time period surrounding high or low tide, the pattern of coastal hydrodynamics is governed by tide and not storm surge. This result is most evident near the English Channel and Bristol Channel, where low frequency maximum water levels are observed when storm surge is combined with high tide. In contrast, near the tidal phase reversal, coastal hydrodynamics responds primarily to the storm surge, and low frequency maximum water elevation largely depends on the surge. In the areas with a small tidal range, ETC strength determines the pattern of coastal inundation.

Mapping and Visualization of Storm-Surge Dynamics for Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gesch, Dean B.

2009-01-01

The damages caused by the storm surges from Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita were significant and occurred over broad areas. Storm-surge maps are among the most useful geospatial datasets for hurricane recovery, impact assessments, and mitigation planning for future storms. Surveyed high-water marks were used to generate a maximum storm-surge surface for Hurricane Katrina extending from eastern Louisiana to Mobile Bay, Alabama. The interpolated surface was intersected with high-resolution lidar elevation data covering the study area to produce a highly detailed digital storm-surge inundation map. The storm-surge dataset and related data are available for display and query in a Web-based viewer application. A unique water-level dataset from a network of portable pressure sensors deployed in the days just prior to Hurricane Rita's landfall captured the hurricane's storm surge. The recorded sensor data provided water-level measurements with a very high temporal resolution at surveyed point locations. The resulting dataset was used to generate a time series of storm-surge surfaces that documents the surge dynamics in a new, spatially explicit way. The temporal information contained in the multiple storm-surge surfaces can be visualized in a number of ways to portray how the surge interacted with and was affected by land surface features. Spatially explicit storm-surge products can be useful for a variety of hurricane impact assessments, especially studies of wetland and land changes where knowledge of the extent and magnitude of storm-surge flooding is critical.

Objective measurement of postocclusion surge during phacoemulsification in human eye-bank eyes.

PubMed

Georgescu, Dan; Payne, Marielle; Olson, Randall J

2007-03-01

To objectively compare the postocclusion vacuum surge among different phacoemulsification machines and devices. Experimental study. Infiniti, Legacy, Millennium, and Sovereign were tested in an eye-bank eye. All the machines were tested with 20-gauge non-ABS tips, 430 mm Hg vacuum pressure, 24 ml/minute aspiration rate, peristaltic pump, and 75 cm bottle height. In addition, Infiniti and Legacy were also tested with 20-gauge bypass tips (ABS), 125 cm bottle height, and 40 ml/minute flow rate. We also tested 19-gauge tips with Infiniti and Sovereign and the venturi pump for Millennium. Significant differences were found between all the machines tested with Millennium peristaltic generating the least and Millennium Venturi the most surge. ABS tips significantly decreased the surge for Legacy but not for Infiniti. Cruise Control (CC) had a significant effect on Sovereign but not on Millennium. Increasing the bottle height decreased surge while increasing the flow increased surge for both Infiniti and Legacy. The 19-gauge tips increased surge for both Infiniti and Sovereign. Surge varied over a range of 40 microm to more than 2 mm. ABS and CC decrease surge, especially when the machine is not functioning near the limits of surge prevention. Certain parameters, such as a 19-gauge tip and high flow, dramatically increased surge, whereas elevating the bottle ameliorates it. Understanding the impact of all these features will help in minimizing the problem.

Risk assessment of storm surge disaster based on numerical models and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qingrong; Ruan, Chengqing; Zhong, Shan; Li, Jian; Yin, Zhonghui; Lian, Xihu

2018-06-01

Storm surge is one of the most serious ocean disasters in the world. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster for coastal areas has important implications for planning economic development and reducing disaster losses. Based on risk assessment theory, this paper uses coastal hydrological observations, a numerical storm surge model and multi-source remote sensing data, proposes methods for valuing hazard and vulnerability for storm surge and builds a storm surge risk assessment model. Storm surges in different recurrence periods are simulated in numerical models and the flooding areas and depth are calculated, which are used for assessing the hazard of storm surge; remote sensing data and GIS technology are used for extraction of coastal key objects and classification of coastal land use are identified, which is used for vulnerability assessment of storm surge disaster. The storm surge risk assessment model is applied for a typical coastal city, and the result shows the reliability and validity of the risk assessment model. The building and application of storm surge risk assessment model provides some basis reference for the city development plan and strengthens disaster prevention and mitigation.

Birth asphyxia: a major cause of early neonatal mortality in a Tanzanian rural hospital.

PubMed

Ersdal, Hege Langli; Mduma, Estomih; Svensen, Erling; Perlman, Jeffrey

2012-05-01

Early neonatal mortality within the first 24 hours contributes substantially to overall neonatal mortality rates. The definition of birth asphyxia (BA) is imprecise, and reliable cause-specific mortality data are limited; thus the estimated proportion of BA-related deaths globally remains questionable. The objective was to determine the presumed causes of neonatal death within the first 24 hours in a rural hospital in Northern Tanzania. This is a prospective descriptive observational study conducted in the delivery room and adjacent neonatal area. Research assistants were trained to observe and record events related to labor, neonatal resuscitation, and 24-hour postnatal course. BA was defined as failure to initiate spontaneous respirations and/or 5-minute Apgar score <7, prematurity as gestational age <36 weeks, and low birth weight (LBW) as birth weight <3rd centile for gestational age. Data were analyzed with χ(2) and Student's t tests. Over 1 year, 4720 infants were born and evaluated. Of these, 256 were admitted to the neonatal area. Forty-nine infants died secondary to BA (61%), prematurity (18%), LBW (8%), infection (2%), congenital abnormalities (8%), and unclear reason (2%). The 5-minute Apgar score was ≥7 in 50% of the infants who died secondary to BA. Most cases of early neonatal mortality were related to BA, and prematurity and LBW are additional important considerations. Reducing perinatal mortality requires a multifaceted approach with attention to issues related to BA, potential complications of prematurity, and LBW. The 5-minute Apgar score is a poor surrogate of BA.

Development of Operational Wave-Tide-Storm surges Coupling Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, S. H.; Park, S. W.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, K. L.

2009-04-01

The Korean Peninsula is surrounded by the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and East Sea. This complex oceanographic system includes large tides in the Yellow Sea and seasonally varying monsoon and typhoon events. For Korea's coastal regions, floods caused by wave and storm surges are among the most serious threats. To predict more accurate wave and storm surges, the development of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system is essential. For the time being, wave and storm surges predictions are still made separately in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and most operational institute. However, many researchers have emphasized the effects of tides and storm surges on wind waves and recommended further investigations into the effects of wave-tide-storm surges interactions and coupling module. In Korea, especially, tidal height and current give a great effect on the wave prediction in the Yellow sea where is very high tide and related research is not enough. At present, KMA has operated the wave (RWAM : Regional Wave Model) and storm surges/tide prediction system (STORM : Storm Surges/Tide Operational Model) for ocean forecasting. The RWAM is WAVEWATCH III which is a third generation wave model developed by Tolman (1989). The STORM is based on POM (Princeton Ocean Model, Blumberg and Mellor, 1987). The RWAM and STORM cover the northwestern Pacific Ocean from 115°E to 150°E and from 20°N to 52°N. The horizontal grid intervals are 1/12° in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions. These two operational models are coupled to simulate wave heights for typhoon case. The sea level and current simulated by storm surge model are used for the input of wave model with 3 hour interval. The coupling simulation between wave and storm surge model carried out for Typhoon Nabi (0514), Shanshan(0613) and Nari (0711) which were effected on Korea directly. We simulated significant wave height simulated by wave model and coupling model and compared difference between

Geodetic measurements used to estimate ice transfer during Bering Glacier surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauber, Jeanne; Plafker, George; Gipson, John

The application of geodetic measurements to glacial research has found a new testing ground: near a surging Alaskan glacier. A set of geodetic measurements collected adjacent to the Bagley Icefield (Figure 1) and along the Gulf of Alaska (Figure 2) are being used to estimate the effects of the Bering Glacier surge that began in the spring of 1993. When ice is removed from a glacier's reservoir during a surge, its surface lowers by tens or hundreds of meters and ice is added to the receiving area, where it thickens and advances.The dramatic changes in a surging glacier's extent and thickness should result in elastic deformation of the solid Earth. At Bering Glacier, calculations show that ice transfer may have caused up to 17 cm of the solid Earth to subside. Although recent surges at the Bering and Variegated Glaciers have been well documented, little is known about most surges, particularly about what happens in the upper reaches of the glaciers.

Association between mild intellectual disability and early mortality in men and women: evidence from a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Maenner, Matthew J; Greenberg, Jan S; Mailick, Marsha R

2016-01-01

Lower (versus higher) IQ scores have been shown to increase the risk of early mortality, however, the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood and previous studies underrepresent individuals with intellectual disabilities and women. This study followed one-third of all senior-year students (approximately aged 17) attending public high school in Wisconsin, USA in 1957 (n=10,317) until 2011. Men and women with mild intellectual disabilities had increased rates of mortality compared to people with the highest IQs, particularly for cardiovascular disease. Importantly, when educational attainment was held constant, people with intellectual disabilities did not have higher mortality by age 70 than people with higher IQs. Individuals with intellectual disabilities likely experience multiple disadvantages throughout life that contribute to increased risk of early mortality. PMID:25928436

The importance of early life family factors in the association between cardiovascular risk factors and early cardiovascular mortality

PubMed Central

Kjøllesdal, Marte K R; Ariansen, Inger; Mortensen, Laust H; Næss, Øyvind

2017-01-01

Objective To explore the importance of early life factors shared by siblings, such as parental socioeconomic position, parental practices, housing and neighbourhood, for the association between cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and mortality from CVD, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease. Methods Norwegian health surveys (1974–2003) were linked with data from the Norwegian Family Based Life Course Study and the Cause of Death Registry. Participants with at least one full sibling among survey participants (n=2 71 643) were included. Data on CVD risk factors, body mass index (BMI), height, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol (TC) were stratified into ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ risk, and smoking to ‘daily smoking’ and ‘not daily smoking’. Results Mean age of participants was 41 years, mean follow-up time was 19 years and during follow-up 2512 died from CVD. For each category of increased risk factor level, the per step HR of CVD mortality was increased by 1.91 (95% CI 1.78 to 2.05) for SBP, 1.67 (1.58 to 1.76) for TC, 1.44 (1.36 to 1.53) for BMI, 1.26 (1.18 to 1.35) for height and 2.89 (2.66 to 3.14) for smoking. In analyses where each sibship (groups of full siblings) had a group-specific baseline hazard, these associations were attenuated to 1.74, 1.51, 1.29, 1.18 and 2.63, respectively. The associations between risk factors and IHD mortality followed the same pattern. Conclusion Early life family factors explained a small part of the association between risk factors and mortality from CVD and IHD in a relatively young sample. PMID:28878947

Demand surge following earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olsen, Anna H.

2012-01-01

Demand surge is understood to be a socio-economic phenomenon where repair costs for the same damage are higher after large- versus small-scale natural disasters. It has reportedly increased monetary losses by 20 to 50%. In previous work, a model for the increased costs of reconstruction labor and materials was developed for hurricanes in the Southeast United States. The model showed that labor cost increases, rather than the material component, drove the total repair cost increases, and this finding could be extended to earthquakes. A study of past large-scale disasters suggested that there may be additional explanations for demand surge. Two such explanations specific to earthquakes are the exclusion of insurance coverage for earthquake damage and possible concurrent causation of damage from an earthquake followed by fire or tsunami. Additional research into these aspects might provide a better explanation for increased monetary losses after large- vs. small-scale earthquakes.

Causes of mortality in early infantile epileptic encephalopathy: A systematic review.

PubMed

Radaelli, Graciane; de Souza Santos, Francisco; Borelli, Wyllians Vendramini; Pisani, Leonardo; Nunes, Magda Lahorgue; Scorza, Fulvio Alexandre; da Costa, Jaderson Costa

2018-06-12

Early infantile epileptic encephalopathy syndrome (EIEE), also known as Ohtahara syndrome, is an age-dependent epileptic encephalopathy syndrome defined by clinical features and electroencephalographic findings. Epileptic disorders with refractory seizures beginning in the neonatal period and/or early infancy have a potential risk of premature mortality, including sudden death. We aimed to identify the causes of death in EIEE and conducted a literature survey of fatal outcomes. We performed a literature search in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science for data from inception until September 2017. The terms "death sudden," "unexplained death," "SUDEP," "lethal," and "fatal" and the medical subject heading terms "epileptic encephalopathy," "mortality," "death," "sudden infant death syndrome," and "human" were used in the search strategy. The EIEE case report studies reporting mortality were included. The search yielded 1360 articles. After screening for titles and abstracts and removing duplicate entries, full texts of 15 articles were reviewed. After reading full texts, 11 articles met the inclusion criteria (9 articles in English and 2 in Japanese, dated from 1976 to 2015). The review comprised 38 unique cases of EIEE, 17 of which had death as an outcome. In all cases, the suppression-burst pattern on electroencephalographies (EEGs) was common. Most cases (55%) involved male infants. The mean (standard deviation [SD]) age at onset of seizure was 19.6 ± 33 days. The mean (SD) age at death was 12.9 ± 14.1 months. Most infants (58.8%) survived less than one year. The cause of death was described only in eight (47%) patients; the cause was pneumonia/respiratory illness or sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP). The results show EIEE as a severe disease associated with a premature mortality, evidenced by a very young age at death. Increasing interest in the detection of new molecular bases of EIEE is leading us to a better understanding of this severe

Pneumonectomy for lung cancer: contemporary national early morbidity and mortality outcomes.

PubMed

Thomas, Pascal A; Berbis, Julie; Baste, Jean-Marc; Le Pimpec-Barthes, Françoise; Tronc, François; Falcoz, Pierre-Emmanuel; Dahan, Marcel; Loundou, Anderson

2015-01-01

The study objective was to determine contemporary early outcomes associated with pneumonectomy for lung cancer and to identify their predictors using a nationally representative general thoracic surgery database (EPITHOR). After discarding inconsistent files, a group of 4498 patients who underwent elective pneumonectomy for primary lung cancer between 2003 and 2013 was selected. Logistic regression analysis was performed on variables for mortality and major adverse events. Then, a propensity score analysis was adjusted for imbalances in baseline characteristics between patients with or without neoadjuvant treatment. Operative mortality was 7.8%. Surgical, cardiovascular, pulmonary, and infectious complications rates were 14.9%, 14.1%, 11.5%, and 2.7%, respectively. None of these complications were predicted by the performance of a neoadjuvant therapy. Operative mortality analysis, adjusted for the propensity scores, identified age greater than 65 years (odds ratio [OR], 2.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-2.9; P < .001), underweight body mass index category (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.0; P = .009), American Society of Anesthesiologists score of 3 or greater (OR, 2.310; 95% CI, 1.615-3.304; P < .001), right laterality of the procedure (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-2.4; P = .011), performance of an extended pneumonectomy (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.1; P = .018), and absence of systematic lymphadenectomy (OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.1-7.8; P = .027) as risk predictors. Induction therapy (OR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.5-0.9; P = .005) and overweight body mass index category (OR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.4-0.9; P = .033) were protective factors. Several risk factors for major adverse early outcomes after pneumonectomy for cancer were identified. Overweight patients and those who received induction therapy had paradoxically lower adjusted risks of mortality. Copyright © 2015 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

30 CFR 57.16002 - Bins, hoppers, silos, tanks, and surge piles.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Bins, hoppers, silos, tanks, and surge piles... NONMETAL MINES Materials Storage and Handling § 57.16002 Bins, hoppers, silos, tanks, and surge piles. (a) Bins, hoppers, silos, tanks, and surge piles, where loose unconsolidated materials are stored, handled...

30 CFR 56.16002 - Bins, hoppers, silos, tanks, and surge piles.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Bins, hoppers, silos, tanks, and surge piles... MINES Materials Storage and Handling § 56.16002 Bins, hoppers, silos, tanks, and surge piles. (a) Bins, hoppers, silos, tanks, and surge piles, where loose unconsolidated materials are stored, handled or...

Prognostic capability of different liver disease scoring systems for prediction of early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation.

PubMed

Gaba, Ron C; Couture, Patrick M; Bui, James T; Knuttinen, M Grace; Walzer, Natasha M; Kallwitz, Eric R; Berkes, Jamie L; Cotler, Scott J

2013-03-01

To compare the performance of various liver disease scoring systems in predicting early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation. In this single-institution retrospective study, eight scoring systems were used to grade liver disease in 211 patients (male-to-female ratio = 131:80; mean age, 54 y) before TIPS creation from 1999-2011. Scoring systems included bilirubin level, Child-Pugh (CP) score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease sodium (MELD-Na) score, Emory score, prognostic index (PI), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) 2 score, and Bonn TIPS early mortality (BOTEM) score. Medical record review was used to identify 30-day and 90-day clinical outcomes. The relationship of scoring parameters with mortality outcomes was assessed with multivariate analysis, and the relative ability of systems to predict mortality after TIPS creation was evaluated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. TIPS were successfully created for variceal hemorrhage (n = 121), ascites (n = 72), hepatic hydrothorax (n = 15), and portal vein thrombosis (n = 3). All scoring systems had a significant association with 30-day and 90-day mortality (P<.050 in each case) on multivariate analysis. Based on 30-day and 90-day AUROC, MELD (0.878, 0.816) and MELD-Na (0.863, 0.823) scores had the best capability to predict early mortality compared with bilirubin (0.786, 0.749), CP (0.822, 0.771), Emory (0.786, 0.681), PI (0.854, 0.760), APACHE 2 (0.836, 0.735), and BOTEM (0.798, 0.698), with statistical superiority over bilirubin, Emory, and BOTEM scores. Several liver disease scoring systems have prognostic value for early mortality after TIPS creation. MELD and MELD-Na scores most effectively predict survival after TIPS creation. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Storm Surges. Teacher Guide and Activity Book. OEAGLS Investigation No. 25.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keir, John; Mayer, Victor J.

This investigation is designed to help students understand storm surges on Lake Erie. Activity A includes experiments and discussions intended to help students understand what causes storm surges on Lake Erie. Activity B considers how storm surges affect water levels and, in turn, coastal areas. The student booklet contains questions, experiments,…

The Gorbachev Anti-Alcohol Campaign and Russia's Mortality Crisis.

PubMed

Bhattacharya, Jay; Gathmann, Christina; Miller, Grant

2013-01-01

Political and economic transition is often blamed for Russia's 40% surge in deaths between 1990 and 1994. Highlighting that increases in mortality occurred primarily among alcohol-related causes and among working-age men (the heaviest drinkers), this paper investigates an alternative explanation: the demise of the 1985-1988 Gorbachev Anti-Alcohol Campaign. Using archival sources to build a new oblast-year data set spanning 1978-2000, we find a variety of evidence suggesting that the campaign's end explains a large share of the mortality crisis - implying that Russia's transition to capitalism and democracy was not as lethal as commonly suggested.

Quantifying the Mass Flux, Erosion Rates and Geomorphological Impact of Surging Karakoram Glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quincey, D. J.; Glasser, N. F.; King, O.

2017-12-01

Surge-type glaciers switch between phases of rapid and slow flow on timescales of a few years to decades. Here, we describe glacier-surface debris changes, surface-elevation changes and velocity changes through surges lasting five to ten years on ten different Karakoram glaciers (Khurdopin, Gasherbrum, Kunyang, Braldu, Chong Khumdan, Qiogeli, Saxintulu, Shakesiga, Skamri and Unnamed). We use these data to characterise their geomorphological imprint on the landscape, calculate a minimum mass flux for each of the surges and provide first-order estimates of bed erosion rates. Surface debris transport through the surges includes widespread rearrangement of surface debris features, folding and the concentration of debris near glacier termini, confluences and margins. Ice and debris-flux is partly dependent on the style of the surge, and in particular whether a surge-front propagates down-glacier during the active phase. Erosion rates also depend on the style and longevity of the surge, but are largely comparable between each of the studied datasets. We conclude by estimating the geomorphic work undertaken during surge events in comparison to work carried out by non-surging glaciers in the same region.

Properties of the Central American cold surge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguirk, James P.; Reding, Philip J.; Zhang, Yuxia

1993-01-01

The Central American cold surge (CACS) is a frontal incursion from the United States into Central America and resembles the East Asian cold surge. They occur more frequently than analyzed by NMC or by published results, based on our observations between 1979 and 1990. Climatology and structure are quantified, based on surface and upper air stations throughout Central America and satellite products from GOES visible and infrared sensors and SSM/I precipitable water and rain rate sensors.

Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Storm Surge Results. Report 5: Intermediate Submission No. 3

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-01

Vickery, P., D. Wadhera, A. Cox, V. Cardone , J. Hanson, and B. Blanton. 2012. Coastal storm surge analysis: Storm forcing (Intermediate Submission No...CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Jeffrey L. Hanson, Michael F. Forte, Brian Blanton

What has driven the decline of infant mortality in Kenya in the 2000s?

PubMed

Demombynes, Gabriel; Trommlerová, Sofia Karina

2016-05-01

Substantial declines in early childhood mortality have taken place in many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Kenya's infant mortality rate fell by 7.6 percent per year between 2003 and 2008, the fastest rate of decline among the 20 countries in the region for which recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data are available. The average rate of decline across all 20 countries was 3.6 percent per year. Among the possible causes of the observed decline in Kenya is a large-scale campaign to distribute insecticide-treated bednets (ITN) which started in 2004. A Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition using DHS data shows that the increased ownership of bednets in endemic malaria zones explains 79 percent of the decline in infant mortality. Although the Oaxaca-Blinder method cannot identify causal effects, given the wide evidence basis showing that ITN usage can reduce malaria prevalence and the huge surge in ITN ownership in Kenya, it is likely that the decomposition results reflect at least in part a causal effect. The widespread ownership of ITNs in areas of Kenya where malaria is rare suggests that better targeting of ITN provision could improve the cost-effectiveness of such programs. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Exercising Tactically for Taming Postmeal Glucose Surges.

PubMed

Chacko, Elsamma

2016-01-01

This review seeks to synthesize data on the timing, intensity, and duration of exercise found scattered over some 39 studies spanning 3+ decades into optimal exercise conditions for controlling postmeal glucose surges. The results show that a light aerobic exercise for 60 min or moderate activity for 20-30 min starting 30 min after meal can efficiently blunt the glucose surge, with minimal risk of hypoglycemia. Exercising at other times could lead to glucose elevation caused by counterregulation. Adding a short bout of resistance exercise of moderate intensity (60%-80%  VO2max) to the aerobic activity, 2 or 3 times a week as recommended by the current guidelines, may also help with the lowering of glucose surges. On the other hand, high-intensity exercise (>80%  VO2max) causes wide glucose fluctuations and its feasibility and efficacy for glucose regulation remain to be ascertained. Promoting the kind of physical activity that best counters postmeal hyperglycemia is crucial because hundreds of millions of diabetes patients living in developing countries and in the pockets of poverty in the West must do without medicines, supplies, and special diets. Physical activity is the one tool they may readily utilize to tame postmeal glucose surges. Exercising in this manner does not violate any of the current guidelines, which encourage exercise any time.

New evidence of surge-type glaciers in the Central Andes of Argentina and Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolch, T.; Falaschi, D.; Lenzano, M. G.; Tadono, T.; Lenzano, L. E.

2017-12-01

In contrast to the large surge-type glacier clusters widely known for several mountain ranges around the world, the presence of surging glaciers in the Andes has been historically seen as marginal. Based on the analysis of satellite imagery and DEM differencing, coupled with aerial archival data, we identified 21 surge-type glaciers in the Central Andes, out of which four of them are confirmed surge-type, six are very-probable surge-type, and eleven are possible surge-type. The geodetic mass balance estimation of 12 glaciers for the 2000-2011 period, which encompasses the latest surge events, mostly showed either moderately negative or positive patterns (-0.5 to 0.3 m w.e. a-1). Additionally, we calculated maximum surface velocities of 6.3 ±1.9 m d-1 and 3.5 ±1.2 m d-1 for the Piuquenes and Noreste del Cerro Alto glaciers during the latest two identifiable surge events (1985-1987 and 2003-2007), and preliminarily determined surge cycles of 10 and 20 years for these two glaciers, respectively. The synchronicity of recent and past glacier surges and the coincidence with anomalously cold, snowy periods point out to a common climatic control over glacier surges in this region.

Revisiting the cold season surge generating storms of the east coast in the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. E.; Kushnir, Y.; Booth, J. F.

2014-12-01

Cold season storms in the East coast of the United States often threaten the coastal livelihood. This is a study to connect the recorded extreme cold season surges with the storms in the past, spanning from the early 20th Century. We find the 20th century reanalysis data (20CR) useful for this study, for its temporal coverage sufficiently overlaps with the modern tidal records. The storm tracks are obtained from the cold season (NDJFMA) sea level pressure field from 20CR, using the popular tracking algorithm by K.Hodges. In seeking for fidelity in the storm data, we made two major efforts: The climatology and the known climate signals imbedded in the track data are verified against those of ERA-interim reanalysis, and against the storms tracked by an independent algorithm (GISS-MCMS). In addition, it is statistically confirmed that the storm tracks and the sea level pressure fields based on 20CR around the east coast area exhibit temporal homogeneity. In the Battery, we select top 100 cold season water displacement events from the 6-hour mean water height data from 1927 to 2012, with linear trend and tide removed. Among the tracks passing close enough to the Battery, we found 91 matches. Distinctive track characteristics stand out when the positive surge events are separated from the negative surge events. More characteristic parameters of the storms are investigated according to further surge classification.

The Fate of the Civilian Surge in a Changing Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

THE FATE OF THE CIVILIAN SURGE IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT Ryan S. McCannellUSAWC Website FOR THIS AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS, VISIT US AT http...FATE OF THE CIVILIAN SURGE IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT Ryan S. McCannell The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not...in Strategic Studies from the U.S. Army War College. 1 The Fate of the Civilian Surge in a Changing Environment Ryan S. McCannell Introduction

View of Stand Pipe (Surge Tank) from FS 502. Looking ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

View of Stand Pipe (Surge Tank) from FS 502. Looking northeast - Childs-Irving Hydroelectric Project, Childs System, Stand Pipe (Surge Tank), Forest Service Road 708/502, Camp Verde, Yavapai County, AZ

Identification of Critical Vulnerable Areas During a Typhoon Haiyan Event in the Metro Manila Area Using Storm Surge Hazard Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briones, J. B. L. T.; Puno, J. V.; Lapidez, J. P. B.; Muldong, T. M. M.; Ramos, M. M.; Caro, C. V.; Ladiero, C.; Bahala, M. A.; Suarez, J. K. B.; Santiago, J. T.

2014-12-01

Sudden rises in sea water over and above astronomical tides due to an approaching storm are known as storm surges. The development of an early warning system for storm surges is imperative, due to the high threat level of these events; Typhoon Haiyan in 08 November 2013 generated storm surges that caused casualties of over 6,000. Under the Department of Science and Technology, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (DOST - Project NOAH) was tasked to generate storm surge hazard maps for all the coastal areas in the Philippines. The objective of this paper is to create guidelines on how to utilize the storm surge hazard map as a tool for planning and disaster mitigation. This study uses the case of the hypothetical situation in which a tropical storm with an intensity similar to Typhoon Haiyan hits Metro Manila. This site was chosen for various reasons, among them the economic, political, and cultural importance of Metro Manila as the location of the capital of the Philippines and the coastal bay length of the area. The concentration of residential areas and other establishments were also taken into account. Using the Japan Meteorology Association (JMA) Storm Surge Model, FLO-2D flood modelling software and the application of other GIS technology, the impact of Haiyan-strength typhoon passing through Manila was analysed. We were able to identify the population affected, number of affected critical facilities under each storm surge hazard level, and possible evacuation sites. The results of the study can be used as the basis of policies involving disaster response and mitigation by city authorities. The methods used by the study can be used as a replicable framework for the analysis of other sites in the Philippines.

Development of Dimensionless Surge Response Functions for Hazard Assessment at Panama City, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, N. R.; Irish, J. L.; Hagen, S. C.; Kaihatu, J. M.; McLaughlin, P. W.

2013-12-01

Reliable and robust methods of extreme value analysis in hurricane surge forecasting are of high importance in the coastal engineering profession. The Joint Probability Method (JPM) has become the preferred statistical method over the Historical Surge Population (HSP) method, due to its ability to give more accurate surge predictions, as demonstrated by Irish et. al in 2011 (J. Geophys. Res.). One disadvantage to this method is its high computational cost; a single location can require hundreds of simulated storms, each needing one thousand computational hours or more to complete. One way of overcoming this issue is to use an interpolating function, called a surge response function, to reduce the required number of simulations to a manageable number. These sampling methods, which use physical scaling laws, have been shown to significantly reduce the number of simulated storms needed for application of the JPM method. In 2008, Irish et. al. (J. Phys. Oceanogr.) demonstrated that hurricane surge scales primarily as a function of storm size and intensity. Additionally, Song et. al. in 2012 (Nat. Hazards) has shown that surge response functions incorporating bathymetric variations yield highly accurate surge estimates along the Texas coastline. This study applies the Song. et. al. model to 73 stations along the open coast, and 273 stations within the bays, in Panama City, Florida. The model performs well for the open coast and bay areas; surge levels at most stations along the open coast were predicted with RMS errors below 0.40 meters, and R2 values at or above 0.80. The R2 values for surge response functions within bays were consistently at or above 0.75. Surge levels at most stations within the North Bay and East Bay were predicted with RMS errors below 0.40 meters; within the West Bay, surge was predicted with RMS errors below 0.52 meters. Accurately interpolating surge values along the Panama City coast and bays enables efficient use of the JPM model in order to

Facilitating Adaptation to Changing Storm Surge Patterns in Western Alaska.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. A.; Holman, A.; Reynolds, J.

2014-12-01

Coastal regions of North America are already experiencing the effects of climate change and the consequences of new storm patterns and sea level rise. These climate change effects are even more pronounced in western Alaska where the loss of sea ice in early winter and spring are exposing the coast to powerful winter storms that are visibly altering the landscape, putting coastal communities at risk, and are likely impacting important coastal wildlife habitat in ways we don't yet understand. The Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative has funded a suite of projects to improve the information available to assist managers and communities to adapt changes in coastal storms and their impacts. Projects range from modeling tide, wave and storm surge patters, to ShoreZone and NHD mapping, to bathymetry mapping, community vulnerability assessments and risks to important wildlife habitat. This group of diverse projects has helped stimulate momentum among partners which will lead to better tools for communities to respond to dangerous storms. For example, the State of Alaska and NOAA are working together to compile a series of community-scale maps that utilize best-available datasets to streamline communication about forecasted storm surges, local elevations and potentially impacted infrastructure during storm events that may lead to coastal flooding.

Radiation Exposure and Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer in Early NASA Astronauts.

PubMed

Elgart, S Robin; Little, Mark P; Chappell, Lori J; Milder, Caitlin M; Shavers, Mark R; Huff, Janice L; Patel, Zarana S

2018-05-31

Understanding space radiation health effects is critical due to potential increased morbidity and mortality following spaceflight. We evaluated whether there is evidence for excess cardiovascular disease or cancer mortality in early NASA astronauts and if a correlation exists between space radiation exposure and mortality. Astronauts selected from 1959-1969 were included and followed until death or February 2017, with 39 of 73 individuals still alive at that time. Calculated standardized mortality rates for tested outcomes were significantly below U.S. white male population rates, including all-cardiovascular disease (n = 7, SMR = 33; 95% CI, 14-65) and all-cancer (n = 7, SMR = 43; 95% CI, 18-83), as anticipated in a healthy worker population. Space radiation doses for cohort members ranged from 0-78 mGy. No significant associations between space radiation dose and mortality were found using logistic regression with an internal reference group, adjusting for medical radiation. Statistical power of the logistic regression was <6%, remaining <12% even when expected risk level or observed deaths were assumed to be 10 times higher than currently reported. While no excess radiation-associated cardiovascular or cancer mortality risk was observed, findings must be tempered by the statistical limitations of this cohort; notwithstanding, this small unique cohort provides a foundation for assessment of astronaut health.

Increasing the highest storm surge in Busan harbor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Sang Myeong; Moon, Il-Ju; Kwon, Suk Jae

2017-04-01

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change in coastal regions is sea level rise and storm surges. Busan in particular, the fifth largest container handling port in the world, has suffered from serious storm surges and experienced a remarkable mean sea level (MSL) rise. This study investigates a long-term variation of annual maximum surge height (AMSH) using sea level data observed in Busan over 53 years (1962 2014). The decomposition of astronomical tides and surge components shows that the AMSH has increased 18 cm over 53 years (i.e., 3.5 mm/year), which is much larger than the MSL trend (2.5 mm/year) in Busan. This significant increase in AMSH is mostly explained by the increased intensity of landfall typhoons over the Korean peninsula (KP), which is associated with the increase of sea surface temperature and the decrease of vertical wind shear at mid-latitudes of the western North Pacific. In a projected future warming environment, the combination of an increasing MSL and AMSH will accelerate the occurrence of record-breaking extreme sea levels, which will be a potential threat in Busan harbor.

Tide-surge Interaction Intensified by the Taiwan Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wen-Zhou; Shi, Fengyan; Hong, Hua-Sheng; Shang, Shao-Ping; Kirby, James T.

2010-06-01

The Taiwan Strait is a long and wide shelf-channel where the hydrodynamics is extremely complex, being characterized by strong tides, and where storm surges frequently occur during the typhoon season. Obvious oscillations due to tide-surge interaction were observed by tide gauges along the northern Fujian coast, the west bank of the Taiwan Strait, during Typhoon Dan (1999). Numerical experiments indicate that nonlinear bottom friction (described by the quadratic formula) is a major factor to predict these oscillations while the nonlinear advective terms and the shallow water effect have little contribution. It is found that the tide-surge interaction in the northern portion of the Taiwan Strait is intensified by the strait. Simulations based on simplified topographies with and without the island of Taiwan show that, in the presence of the island, the channel effect strengthens tidal currents and tends to align the major axes of tidal ellipses along the channel direction. Storm-induced currents are also strengthened by the channel. The pattern of strong tidal currents and storm-induced currents along the channel direction enhances tide-surge interaction via the nonlinear bottom friction, resulting in the obvious oscillations along the northern Fujian coast.

Probabilistic Storm Surge Forecast For Venice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mel, Riccardo; Lionello, Piero

2013-04-01

This study describes an ensemble storm surge prediction procedure for the city of Venice, which is potentially very useful for its management, maintenance and for operating the movable barriers that are presently being built. Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is meant to complement the existing SL forecast system by providing a probabilistic forecast and information on uncertainty of SL prediction. The procedure is applied to storm surge events in the period 2009-2010 producing for each of them an ensemble of 50 simulations. It is shown that EPS slightly increases the accuracy of SL prediction with respect to the deterministic forecast (DF) and it is more reliable than it. Though results are low biased and forecast uncertainty is underestimated, the probability distribution of maximum sea level produced by the EPS is acceptably realistic. The error of the EPS mean is shown to be correlated with the EPS spread. SL peaks correspond to maxima of uncertainty and uncertainty increases linearly with the forecast range. The quasi linear dynamics of the storm surges produces a modulation of the uncertainty after the SL peak with period corresponding to that of the main Adriatic seiche.

Effects of food price inflation on infant and child mortality in developing countries.

PubMed

Lee, Hyun-Hoon; Lee, Suejin A; Lim, Jae-Young; Park, Cyn-Young

2016-06-01

After a historic low level in the early 2000s, global food prices surged upwards to bring about the global food crisis of 2008. High and increasing food prices can generate an immediate threat to the security of a household's food supply, thereby undermining population health. This paper aims to assess the precise effects of food price inflation on child health in developing countries. This paper employs a panel dataset covering 95 developing countries for the period 2001-2011 to make a comprehensive assessment of the effects of food price inflation on child health as measured in terms of infant mortality rate and child mortality rate. Focusing on any departure of health indicators from their respective trends, we find that rising food prices have a significant detrimental effect on nourishment and consequently lead to higher levels of both infant and child mortality in developing countries, and especially in least developed countries (LDCs). High food price inflation rates are also found to cause an increase in undernourishment only in LDCs and thus leading to an increase in infant and child mortality in these poorest countries. This result is consistent with the observation that, in lower-income countries, food has a higher share in household expenditures and LDCs are likely to be net food importing countries. Hence, there should be increased efforts by both LDC governments and the international community to alleviate the detrimental link between food price inflation and undernourishment and also the link between undernourishment and infant mortality.

'Reverse triage' adds to surge capacity.

PubMed

2009-06-01

Providing adequate surge capacity during a disaster is one of the greatest challenges of emergency response. Now, researchers have proposed a new process called "reverse triage" to help create surge capacity that otherwise would not exist. Patients who have only a slight chance of experiencing an adverse event within four days of leaving the hospital may be discharged to free bed space. ED staff can provide a daily initial reverse triage score for patients being admitted, even if a disaster is not imminent. While general guidelines can have great value, take the interests of the patient and their family into account when making discharge decisions.

Investigating Typhoon Induced River-Surge Interactions in the Tamsui Estuary, Taiwan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maskell; J. H.; Grieser, J.; Rodney, J.; Howe, N. J.

2016-02-01

It is increasingly important to understand the combined influence of the main drivers of coastal risk due to sea level rise and the potential increase in extreme weather events. An Asian Basin stochastic typhoon set was used to force a storm surge model of Taiwan to investigate the interaction between storm surge and high river discharges (50, 100 and 200 year return period discharges) in the Tamsui River. Taiwan is a mountainous country leading to the combined risk of surge and high river discharge occurring simultaneously in estuary regions. The typhoon tracks were selected using a Hurricane Surge Index (Kantha, 2006) and cross the northern tip of Taiwan with maximum sustained winds (Vmax) between 51 m/s and 75 m/s (Cat 3-5). Peak surge elevations in the Tamsui River range from 5.7 m to 10.3 m. The surge interacts with the river flow to induce changes in the water elevation between -8 m and 4 m depending on the surge elevation and river discharge and increases the inundated area in the range 37 km to 204 km. Significant positive interactions occur in the Tamsui Estuary (Fig. 1a) but do not have implications for increased inundation and occur at the start of the flood phase and the end of the ebb phase as previously shown in idealized test cases (Maskell et al., 2013). Current vectors in the estuary show that at the time leading up to high water the river outflow starts to become dominant in the mid-channel reducing maximum water levels by up to 10% in the combined surge and river solution. However, surge inhibits downstream propagation of the flood wave in the upper river channels increasing water levels by up to 2 m. The maximum inundated area (1330 km2) is caused by the combination of defence overflow due to the maximum surge (10.27 m) and increased river levels (RP100) in the upper channels leading to significant inundation either side of the Keelung River (Fig. 1b). The Erchung floodway is effective in diverting some of the flow (up to 10,443 m3/s) reducing

Early mortality in SCN8A-related epilepsies.

PubMed

Johannesen, Katrine M; Gardella, Elena; Scheffer, Ingrid; Howell, Katherine; Smith, Douglas M; Helbig, Ingo; Møller, Rikke S; Rubboli, Guido

2018-07-01

SCN8A-related epilepsies are often severe developmental and epileptic encephalopathies. Seizures can be treatment resistant, and patients suffer from severe intellectual disability. Reports have suggested that SCN8A-related epilepsies have a high mortality with SUDEP as the major underlying cause. SUDEP is a catastrophic event, and the risk of occurrence should be correctly and carefully discussed with patients and families. We tested the hypothesis of SUDEP as the main cause of death in SCN8A-related epilepsies by reviewing all the currently reported patients with SCN8A. In addition, we collected unpublished patients through an international network. In total, we reviewed the data of 190 patients. In our cohort, 10 patients were deceased, and the overall mortality was 5.3%. Within the ten deceased patients, age at death ranged from 16 months to 17 years; the majority (7/10) of them died in early childhood. Three patients died of probable or definite SUDEP. Thus, our data do not indicate an increased risk when compared to other DEEs. Indeed, death in SCN8A-related epilepsies seems to occur most often in children experiencing a relentless worsening of their epilepsy and neurological condition, rendering them susceptible to pulmonary infections and respiratory distress that ultimately can be fatal. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Storm surge modeling and applications in coastal areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dube, Shisir K.; Murty, Tad S.; Feyen, Jesse C.; Cabrera, Reggina; Harper, Bruce A.; Bales, Jerad D.; Amer, Saud A.

2010-01-01

This chapter introduces the reader to a wide spectrum of storm surge modeling systems used to assess the impact of tropical cyclones, covering a range of numerical methods, model domains, forcing and boundary conditions, and purposes. New technologies to obtain data such as deployment of temporary sensors and remote sensing practices to support modeling are also presented. Extensive storm surge modeling applications have been made with existing modeling systems and some of them are described in this chapter.The authors recognize the importance of evaluating river-ocean interactions in coastal environments during tropical cyclones. Therefore, the coupling of hydraulic (riverine) and storm surge models is discussed. In addition, results from studies performed in the coast of India are shown which generated maps to help emergency managers and reduce risk due to coastal inundation.

Storm surge evolution and its relationship to climate oscillations at Duck, NC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munroe, Robert; Curtis, Scott

2017-07-01

Coastal communities experience increased vulnerability during storm surge events through the risk of damage to coastal infrastructure, erosion/deposition, and the endangerment of human life. Policy and planning measures attempt to avoid or mitigate storm surge consequences through building codes and setbacks, beach stabilization, insurance rates, and coastal zoning. The coastal emergency management community and public react and respond on shorter time scales, through temporary protection, emergency stockpiling, and evacuation. This study utilizes time series analysis, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, Pearson's correlation, and the generalized extreme value (GEV) theorem to make the connection between climate oscillation indices and storm surge characteristics intra-seasonally to inter-annually. Results indicate that an El Niño (+ENSO), negative phase of the NAO, and positive phase of the PNA pattern all support longer duration and hence more powerful surge events, especially in winter. Increased surge duration increases the likelihood of extensive erosion, inland inundation, among other undesirable effects of the surge hazard.

Hurricane Katrina storm surge distribution and field observations on the Mississippi Barrier Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, Hermann M.; Blount, Chris; Sokoloski, Robert; Singleton, Justin; Fuggle, Andrew; McAdoo, Brian G.; Moore, Andrew; Grass, Chad; Tate, Banks

2007-08-01

Hurricane Katrina (23-30 August 2005) struck low-lying coastal plains particularly vulnerable to storm surge flooding. Maximum storm surges, overland flow depths, and inundation distances were measured along the Gulf Coast of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana. The vehicle based survey was complemented by inspections with the reconnaissance boat along the Gulf Coast and the Mississippi Barrier Islands. The storm surge peaked to the East of Katrina's path exceeding 10 meters in several locations along the Mississippi coastline. The storm surge measurements show that the lower floors of specially designed buildings were damaged by the surge of seawater and associated wave action, while the upper floors sustained minimal wind damage. Furthermore, the storm surge measurements along New Orleans's Lake shore indicate that the 17th Street Canal levee failed prior to overtopping. The land loss on the barrier islands resulted in an increased vulnerability of the US Gulf Coast to future hurricane storm surges.

Scaling up implementation of ART: Organizational culture and early mortality of patients initiated on ART in Nairobi, Kenya.

PubMed

Ayah, Richard

2018-01-01

Scaling up the antiretroviral (ART) program in Kenya has involved a strategy of using clinical guidelines coupled with decentralization of treatment sites. However decentralization pushes clinical responsibility downwards to health facilities run by lower cadre staff. Whether the organizational culture in health facilities affects the outcomes despite the use of clinical guidelines has not been explored. This study aimed to demonstrate the relationship between organizational culture and early mortality and those lost to follow up (LTFU) among patients enrolled for HIV care. A stratified sample of 31 health facilities in Nairobi County offering ART services were surveyed. Data of patients enrolled on ART and LTFU for the 12 months ending 30th June 2013 were abstracted. Mortality and LTFU were determined and used to rank health facilities. In the facilities with the lowest and highest mortality and LTFU key informant interviews were conducted using a tool adapted from team climate assessment measurement questionnaire and competing value framework tool to assess organizational culture. The strength of association between early mortality, LTFU and organizational culture was tested. Half (51.8%) of the 5,808 patients enrolled into care in 31 health facilities over the 12-month study period were started on ART. Of these 48 (1.6% 95% CI 0.8%-2.4%) died within three months of starting treatment, while a further 125 (4.2% 95% CI 2.1%-6.6%) were LTFU giving an attrition rate of 5.7% (95% CI 3.3%-8.6%). Tuberculosis was the most common comorbidity associated with high early mortality and high LTFU. Organizational culture, specifically an adhocratic type was found to be associated with low early mortality and low LTFU of patients enrolled for HIV care (P = 0.034). The use of ART clinical guidelines in a decentralized health systems are not sufficient to achieve required service delivery outcomes. The attrition rate above would mean 85,000 Kenyans missing care based on current

The eSurge-Venice project: altimeter and scatterometer satellite data to improve the storm surge forecasting in the city of Venice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zecchetto, Stefano; De Biasio, Francesco; Umgiesser, Georg; Bajo, Marco; Vignudelli, Stefano; Papa, Alvise; Donlon, Craig; Bellafiore, Debora

2013-04-01

On the framework of the Data User Element (DUE) program, the European Space Agency is funding a project to use altimeter Total Water Level Envelope (TWLE) and scatterometer wind data to improve the storm surge forecasting in the Adriatic Sea and in the city of Venice. The project will: a) Select a number of Storm Surge Events occurred in the Venice lagoon in the period 1999-present day b) Provide the available satellite Earth Observation (EO) data related to the Storm Surge Events, mainly satellite winds and altimeter data, as well as all the available in-situ data and model forecasts c) Provide a demonstration Near Real Time service of EO data products and services in support of operational and experimental forecasting and warning services d) Run a number of re-analysis cases, both for historical and contemporary storm surge events, to demonstrate the usefulness of EO data The re-analysis experiments, based on hindcasts performed by the finite element 2-D oceanographic model SHYFEM (https://sites.google.com/site/shyfem/), will 1. use different forcing wind fields (calibrated and not calibrated with satellite wind data) 2. use Storm Surge Model initial conditions determined from altimeter TWLE data. The experience gained working with scatterometer and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) winds in the Adriatic Sea tells us that the bias NWP-Scatt wind is negative and spatially and temporally not uniform. In particular, a well established point is that the bias is higher close to coasts then offshore. Therefore, NWP wind speed calibration will be carried out on each single grid point in the Adriatic Sea domain over the period of a Storm Surge Event, taking into account of existing published methods. Point #2 considers two different methodologies to be used in re-analysis tests. One is based on the use of the TWLE values from altimeter data in the Storm Surge Model (SSM), applying data assimilation methodologies and trying to optimize the initial conditions of the

Comparison of two recent storm surge events based on results of field surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Ryota; Shibayama, Tomoya; Mikami, Takahito; Esteban, Miguel; Takagi, Hiroshi; Maell, Martin; Iwamoto, Takumu

2017-10-01

This paper compares two different types of storm surge disaster based on field surveys. Two cases: a severe storm surge flood with its height of over 5 m due to Typhoon Haiyan (2013) in Philippine, and inundation of storm surge around Nemuro city in Hokkaido of Japan with its maximum surge height of 2.8 m caused by extra-tropical cyclone are taken as examples. For the case of the Typhoon Haiyan, buildings located in coastal region were severely affected due to a rapidly increase in ocean surface. The non-engineering buildings were partially or completely destroyed due to their debris transported to an inner bay region. In fact, several previous reports indicated two unique features, bore-like wave and remarkably high speed currents. These characteristics of the storm surge may contribute to a wide-spread corruption for the buildings around the affected region. Furthermore, in the region where the surge height was nearly 3 m, the wooden houses were completely or partially destroyed. On the other hand, in Nemuro city, a degree of suffering in human and facility caused by the storm surge is minor. There was almost no partially destroyed residential houses even though the height of storm surge reached nearly 2.8 m. An observation in the tide station in Nemuro indicated that this was a usual type of storm surge, which showed a gradual increase of sea level height in several hours without possessing the unique characteristics like Typhoon Haiyan. As a result, not only the height of storm surge but also the robustness of the buildings and characteristics of storm surge, such as bore like wave and strong currents, determined the existent of devastation in coastal regions.

Tree mortality from fire and bark beetles following early and late season prescribed fires in a Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwilk, Dylan W.; Knapp, Eric E.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Keeley, Jon E.; Caprio, Anthony C.

2006-01-01

Over the last century, fire exclusion in the forests of the Sierra Nevada has allowed surface fuels to accumulate and has led to increased tree density. Stand composition has also been altered as shade tolerant tree species crowd out shade intolerant species. To restore forest structure and reduce the risk of large, intense fires, managers have increasingly used prescription burning. Most fires prior to EuroAmerican settlement occurred during the late summer and early fall and most prescribed burning has taken place during the latter part of this period. Poor air quality and lack of suitable burn windows during the fall, however, have resulted in a need to conduct more prescription burning earlier in the season. Previous reports have suggested that burning during the time when trees are actively growing may increase mortality rates due to fine root damage and/or bark beetle activity. This study examines the effects of fire on tree mortality and bark beetle attacks under prescription burning during early and late season. Replicated early season burn, late season burn and unburned control plots were established in an old-growth mixed conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada that had not experienced a fire in over 120 years. Although prescribed burns resulted in significant mortality of particularly the smallest tree size classes, no difference between early and late season burns was detected. Direct mortality due to fire was associated with fire intensity. Secondary mortality due to bark beetles was not significantly correlated with fire intensity. The probability of bark beetle attack on pines did not differ between early and late season burns, while the probability of bark beetle attack on firs was greater following early season burns. Overall tree mortality appeared to be primarily the result of fire intensity rather than tree phenology at the time of the burns. Early season burns are generally conducted under higher fuel moisture conditions, leading to less fuel

Verbal memory and search speed in early midlife are associated with mortality over 25 years' follow-up, independently of health status and early life factors: a British birth cohort study.

PubMed

Davis, Daniel; Cooper, Rachel; Terrera, Graciela Muniz; Hardy, Rebecca; Richards, Marcus; Kuh, Diana

2016-08-01

Cognitive capabilities in childhood and in late life are inversely associated with mortality rates. However, it is unclear if adult cognition, at a time still relatively free from comorbidity, is associated with subsequent mortality, and whether this explains the associations of early life factors with adult mortality. We used data from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development, a birth cohort study prospectively assessing 5362 participants born in 1946. The present analysis includes participants followed up from age 43 and undergoing cognitive assessment (verbal memory and search speed). Mortality outcomes were notified through linkage with a national register. Cox regression was used to estimate mortality hazards in relation to cognitive performance at age 43, adjusting for early life factors, socioeconomic position and health status. Data were available on 3192 individuals. Univariable analyses indicated that adult verbal memory and search speed, parental factors, childhood cognition and educational attainment were associated with mortality. However, multivariable models showed that the mortality associations with earlier life factors were explained by adult cognitive capability. A standard deviation increase in verbal memory and search speed scores was associated with lower mortality rates [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77-0.97, P = 0.02; HR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.78-1.00, P = 0.05, respectively), after adjustment for adult health. Cognitive capability in early midlife was inversely associated with mortality rates over 25 years and accounted for the associations of family background, childhood cognitive ability and educational attainment with mortality. These findings, in a nationally representative cohort with long-term follow-up, suggest that building cognitive reserve may improve later life health and survival chances. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological

Early mortality of alcoholic hepatitis: a review of data from placebo-controlled clinical trials.

PubMed

Yu, Chao-Hui; Xu, Cheng-Fu; Ye, Hua; Li, Lan; Li, You-Ming

2010-05-21

To investigate the early mortality of placebo-treated alcoholic hepatitis patients. Mortality data about alcoholic hepatitis patients who participated in randomized placebo-controlled trials were searched from PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library, extracted and analyzed. A total of 661 placebo-treated patients in 19 trials were included. The overall mortality rate was 34.19% with a median observation time of 160 d (range 21-720 d). Hepatic failure, gastrointestinal bleeding and infection were the three main causes of death, accounting for 55.47%, 21.17% and 7.30% of all deaths, respectively. One-month mortality data about 324 placebo-treated alcoholic hepatitis patients in 10 trials were reported with a pooled mortality rate of 20.37%. The one-month mortality rate of patients with moderate to severe alcoholic hepatitis tended to be higher than that of general patients (22.69% vs 10.93%, P < 0.05), whereas no significant difference was observed between the patients from North America or Europe (22.43% vs 18.45%, P > 0.05), neither any difference was found between the studies published before and after 1990 (18.18% vs 21.88%, P > 0.05). Alcoholic hepatitis is a severe liver disease with a high mortality rate, and hepatic failure, gastrointestinal bleeding and infection are the three main causes of death.

Developmental Programming: Prenatal and Postnatal Androgen Antagonist and Insulin Sensitizer Interventions Prevent Advancement of Puberty and Improve LH Surge Dynamics in Prenatal Testosterone-Treated Sheep

PubMed Central

Veiga-Lopez, Almudena; Herkimer, Carol; Abi Salloum, Bachir; Moeller, Jacob; Beckett, Evan; Sreedharan, Rohit

2015-01-01

Prenatal T excess induces maternal hyperinsulinemia, early puberty, and reproductive/metabolic defects in the female similar to those seen in women with polycystic ovary syndrome. This study addressed the organizational/activational role of androgens and insulin in programming pubertal advancement and periovulatory LH surge defects. Treatment groups included the following: 1) control; 2) prenatal T; 3) prenatal T plus prenatal androgen antagonist, flutamide; 4) prenatal T plus prenatal insulin sensitizer, rosiglitazone; 5) prenatal T and postnatal flutamide; 6) prenatal T and postnatal rosiglitazone; and 7) prenatal T and postnatal metformin. Prenatal treatments spanned 30–90 days of gestation and postnatal treatments began at approximately 8 weeks of age and continued throughout. Blood samples were taken twice weekly, beginning at approximately 12 weeks of age to time puberty. Two-hour samples after the synchronization with prostaglandin F2α were taken for 120 hours to characterize LH surge dynamics at 7 and 19 months of age. Prenatal T females entered puberty earlier than controls, and all interventions prevented this advancement. Prenatal T reduced the percentage of animals having LH surge, and females that presented LH surge exhibited delayed timing and dampened amplitude of the LH surge. Prenatal androgen antagonist, but not other interventions, restored LH surges without normalizing the timing of the surge. Normalization of pubertal timing with prenatal/postnatal androgen antagonist and insulin sensitizer interventions suggests that pubertal advancement is programmed by androgenic actions of T involving insulin as a mediary. Restoration of LH surges by cotreatment with androgen antagonist supports androgenic programming at the organizational level. PMID:25919188

Developmental Programming: Prenatal and Postnatal Androgen Antagonist and Insulin Sensitizer Interventions Prevent Advancement of Puberty and Improve LH Surge Dynamics in Prenatal Testosterone-Treated Sheep.

PubMed

Padmanabhan, Vasantha; Veiga-Lopez, Almudena; Herkimer, Carol; Abi Salloum, Bachir; Moeller, Jacob; Beckett, Evan; Sreedharan, Rohit

2015-07-01

Prenatal T excess induces maternal hyperinsulinemia, early puberty, and reproductive/metabolic defects in the female similar to those seen in women with polycystic ovary syndrome. This study addressed the organizational/activational role of androgens and insulin in programming pubertal advancement and periovulatory LH surge defects. Treatment groups included the following: 1) control; 2) prenatal T; 3) prenatal T plus prenatal androgen antagonist, flutamide; 4) prenatal T plus prenatal insulin sensitizer, rosiglitazone; 5) prenatal T and postnatal flutamide; 6) prenatal T and postnatal rosiglitazone; and 7) prenatal T and postnatal metformin. Prenatal treatments spanned 30-90 days of gestation and postnatal treatments began at approximately 8 weeks of age and continued throughout. Blood samples were taken twice weekly, beginning at approximately 12 weeks of age to time puberty. Two-hour samples after the synchronization with prostaglandin F2α were taken for 120 hours to characterize LH surge dynamics at 7 and 19 months of age. Prenatal T females entered puberty earlier than controls, and all interventions prevented this advancement. Prenatal T reduced the percentage of animals having LH surge, and females that presented LH surge exhibited delayed timing and dampened amplitude of the LH surge. Prenatal androgen antagonist, but not other interventions, restored LH surges without normalizing the timing of the surge. Normalization of pubertal timing with prenatal/postnatal androgen antagonist and insulin sensitizer interventions suggests that pubertal advancement is programmed by androgenic actions of T involving insulin as a mediary. Restoration of LH surges by cotreatment with androgen antagonist supports androgenic programming at the organizational level.

Planning for a medical surge incident: Is rehabilitation the missing link?

PubMed

Vonderschmidt, Kay

2017-01-01

This mixed methods study explored surge planning for patients who will need rehabilitative care after a mass casualty incident. Planning for a patient surge incident typically considers only prehospital and hospital care. However, in many cases, disaster patients need rehabilitation for which planning is often overlooked. The purpose of this study was to explore this hidden dimension of patient rehabilitation for surge planning and preparedness and ask: 1. To what extent can an analysis of standard patient acuity assessment tools [Simple Triage and Rapid Treatment and Injury Severity Score] be used to project future demand for admission to rehabilitative care? 2. What improvements to medical disaster planning are needed to address patient surge related to rehabilitation? This study found that standard patient benchmarks can be used to project demand for rehabilitation following a mass casualty incident, and argues that a reconceptualization of surge planning to include rehabilitation would improve medical disaster planning.

What doesn't kill you makes you poorer: Adult wages and early-life mortality in India.

PubMed

Lawson, Nicholas; Spears, Dean

2016-05-01

A growing literature indicates that effects of early-life health on adult economic outcomes could be substantial in developing countries, but the magnitude of this effect is debated. We document a robust gradient between the early-life mortality environment to which men in India were locally exposed in their district and year of birth and the wages that they earn as adults. A 1 percentage point reduction in infant mortality (or 10 point reduction in IMR) in an infant's district and year of birth is associated with an approximately 2 percent increase in his subsequent adult wages. Consistent with theories and evidence in the literature, we find that the level of schooling chosen for a child does not mediate this association. Because of its consequences for subsequent wages, early-life health could also have considerable fiscal externalities; if so, public health investments could come at very low net present cost. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tide-surge interaction along the east coast of the Leizhou Peninsula, South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Heng; Cheng, Weicong; Qiu, Xixi; Feng, Xiangbo; Gong, Wenping

2017-06-01

A triply-nested two-dimensional (2D) ocean circulation model along with observed sea level records are used to study tide-surge interaction along the east coast of the Leizhou Peninsula (LP) which is characterized by extensive mudflats, large tidal ranges and a complex coastline. The dependency of surge maxima on the water level and the phase of tide are respectively investigated using two statistical approaches. Results show that tide-surge interaction along the east coast of the LP is significant, where surges peak 3-6 h before or after the nearest high water. The triply-nested 2D ocean circulation model is used to quantify tide-surge interaction in this region and to investigate its physical cause. The largest amplitudes of tide-surge interaction are found in the shallow water region of the Leizhou Bay, with values up to 1 m during typhoon events. Numerical experiments reveal that nonlinear bottom friction is the main contributor to tide-surge interaction, while the contribution of the nonlinear advective effect can be neglected. The shallow water effect enhances the role of nonlinear bottom friction in determining tide-surge modulation, leaving the surge peaks usually occur on the rising or falling tide. It is also found that the relative contribution of local wind and remote wind is different depending on the storm track and storm intensity, which would finally affect the temporal and spatial distribution of tide-surge interaction during typhoon events. These findings confirm the importance of coupling storm surges and tides for the prediction of storm surge events in regions which are characterized by shallow water depths and large tidal ranges.

Association Between Low IQ Scores and Early Mortality in Men and Women: Evidence From a Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Maenner, Matthew J; Greenberg, Jan S; Mailick, Marsha R

2015-05-01

Lower (versus higher) IQ scores have been shown to increase the risk of early mortality, however, the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood and previous studies underrepresent individuals with intellectual disability (ID) and women. This study followed one third of all senior-year students (approximately aged 17) attending public high school in Wisconsin, U.S. in 1957 (n  =  10,317) until 2011. Men and women with the lowest IQ test scores (i.e., IQ scores ≤ 85) had increased rates of mortality compared to people with the highest IQ test scores, particularly for cardiovascular disease. Importantly, when educational attainment was held constant, people with lower IQ test scores did not have higher mortality by age 70 than people with higher IQ test scores. Individuals with lower IQ test scores likely experience multiple disadvantages throughout life that contribute to increased risk of early mortality.

Mortality throughout early childhood for Michigan children born with congenital anomalies, 1992-1998.

PubMed

Berger, Katherine H; Zhu, Bao-Ping; Copeland, Glenn

2003-09-01

Congenital anomalies are a leading cause of infant deaths, accounting for almost a fifth of all infant deaths. Few studies have researched the survival experience of infants born with congenital anomalies past the infant stage. Using birth and death files routinely linked to the Michigan Birth Defects Registry, we identified all singleton infants during calendar years 1992 through 1998 with reportable congenital anomalies for our study. A comparative file of children born without congenital anomalies during the same time period was developed using linked birth and death files. The mortality data were assessed by age at death (through age six) and race to determine mortality rates, relative risks, hazard ratios, and survival trends. Throughout early childhood, children born with congenital anomalies had a high risk of mortality compared with all other children. The overall 7-year hazard ratio comparing children with congenital anomalies with all other children was 7.2. Overall mortality rates for black children were significantly higher than white children through the age of seven, irrespective of whether they had congenital anomalies. Among children with congenital anomalies, this disparity disappeared after adjusting for birth weight, sex, mother's age, mother's education, and number of organ systems affected. Compared with children without congenital anomalies, children born with congenital anomalies had a higher risk of mortality well beyond the infant period. Racial disparities in mortality rates among children with congenital anomalies were due to confounding factors.

Sodium Butyrate Improves Locomotor Impairment and Early Mortality in a Rotenone-Induced Drosophila Model of Parkinson’s Disease

PubMed Central

St. Laurent, Robyn; O’Brien, Liam M.; Ahmad, S. Tariq

2013-01-01

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disorder primarily affecting the dopaminergic neurons in the nigrastriatal pathway resulting in debilitating motor impairment in both familial and sporadic cases. Histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitors have been recently implicated as a therapeutic candidate because of their ability to correct the disrupted HDAC activity in PD and other neurodegenerative diseases. Sodium butyrate (SB), an HDAC inhibitor, reduces degeneration of dopaminergic neurons in a mutant alpha-synuclein Drosophila transgenic model of familial PD. Chronic exposure to the pesticide rotenone also causes selective degeneration of dopaminergic neurons and causes locomotor impairment and early mortality in a Drosophila model of chemically-induced PD. This study investigated the effects of sodium butyrate on locomotor impairment and early mortality in a rotenone-induced PD model. We show that treatment with 10 mM SB-supplemented food rescued the rotenone-induced locomotor impairment and early mortality in flies. Additionally, flies with the genetic knockdown of HDAC activity through Sin3A loss-of-function mutation (Sin3Alof) were resistant to rotenone-induced locomotor impairment and early mortality. Furthermore, SB-supplemented Sin3Alof flies had a modest additive effect for improving locomotor impairment. We also show SB-mediated improvement of rotenone-induced locomotor impairment was associated with elevated dopamine levels in the brain. However, the possibility of SB-mediated protective role through mechanisms independent from dopamine system is also discussed. These findings demonstrate that HDAC inhibitors like SB can ameliorate locomotor impairment in a rotenone-induced PD model. PMID:23623990

Monitoring Inland Storm Surge and Flooding from Hurricane Rita

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGee, Benton D.; Tollett, Roland W.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

2006-01-01

Pressure transducers (sensors) and high-water marks were used to document the inland water levels related to storm surge generated by Hurricane Rita in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. On September 22-23, 2005, an experimental monitoring network of sensors was deployed at 33 sites over an area of about 4,000 square miles to record the timing, extent, and magnitude of inland hurricane storm surge and coastal flooding. Sensors were programmed to record date and time, temperature, and barometric or water pressure. Water pressure was corrected for changes in barometric pressure and salinity. Elevation surveys using global-positioning systems and differential levels were used to relate all storm-surge water-level data, reference marks, benchmarks, sensor measuring points, and high-water marks to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). The resulting data indicated that storm-surge water levels over 14 feet above NAVD 88 occurred at three locations, and rates of water-level rise greater than 5 feet per hour occurred at three locations near the Louisiana coast.

Evaluation of cardiac surgery mortality rates: 30-day mortality or longer follow-up?

PubMed

Siregar, Sabrina; Groenwold, Rolf H H; de Mol, Bas A J M; Speekenbrink, Ron G H; Versteegh, Michel I M; Brandon Bravo Bruinsma, George J; Bots, Michiel L; van der Graaf, Yolanda; van Herwerden, Lex A

2013-11-01

The aim of our study was to investigate early mortality after cardiac surgery and to determine the most adequate follow-up period for the evaluation of mortality rates. Information on all adult cardiac surgery procedures in 10 of 16 cardiothoracic centres in Netherlands from 2007 until 2010 was extracted from the database of Netherlands Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (n = 33 094). Survival up to 1 year after surgery was obtained from the national death registry. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis. Benchmarking was performed using logistic regression with mortality rates at different time points as dependent variables, the logistic EuroSCORE as covariate and a random intercept per centre. In-hospital mortality was 2.94% (n = 972), 30-day mortality 3.02% (n = 998), operative mortality 3.57% (n = 1181), 60-day mortality 3.84% (n = 1271), 6-month mortality 5.16% (n = 1707) and 1-year mortality 6.20% (n = 2052). The survival curves showed a steep initial decline followed by stabilization after ∼60-120 days, depending on the intervention performed, e.g. 60 days for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and 120 days for combined CABG and valve surgery. Benchmark results were affected by the choice of the follow-up period: four hospitals changed outlier status when the follow-up was increased from 30 days to 1 year. In the isolated CABG subgroup, benchmark results were unaffected: no outliers were found using either 30-day or 1-year follow-up. The course of early mortality after cardiac surgery differs across interventions and continues up to ∼120 days. Thirty-day mortality reflects only a part of early mortality after cardiac surgery and should only be used for benchmarking of isolated CABG procedures. The follow-up should be prolonged to capture early mortality of all types of interventions.

A review of tropical cyclone-generated storm surges: Global data sources, observations, and impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Needham, Hal F.; Keim, Barry D.; Sathiaraj, David

2015-06-01

Tropical cyclone-generated storm surges are among the world's most deadly and destructive natural hazards. This paper provides the first comprehensive global review of tropical storm surge data sources, observations, and impacts while archiving data in SURGEDAT, a global database. Available literature has provided data for more than 700 surge events since 1880, the majority of which are found in the western North Atlantic (WNA), followed by Australia/Oceania, the western North Pacific (WNP), and the northern Indian Ocean (NIO). The Bay of Bengal (BOB) in the NIO consistently observes the world's highest surges, as this subbasin averages five surges ≥5 m per decade and has observed credible storm tide levels reaching 13.7 m. The WNP observes the highest rate of low-magnitude surges, as the coast of China averages 54 surges ≥1 m per decade, and rates are likely higher in the Philippines. The U.S. Gulf Coast observes the second highest frequency of both high-magnitude (≥5 m) and low-magnitude (≥1 m) surges. The BOB observes the most catastrophic surge impacts, as 59% of global tropical cyclones that have killed at least 5000 people occurred in this basin. The six deadliest cyclones in this region have each killed at least 140,000 people, and two events have killed 300,000. Storm surge impacts transportation, agriculture, and energy sectors in the WNA. Oceania experiences long-term impacts, including contamination of fresh water and loss of food supplies, although the highest surges in this region are lower than most other basins.

Deep FIFO Surge Buffer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Temple, Gerald; Siegel, Marc; Amitai, Zwie

1991-01-01

First-in/first-out (FIFO) temporarily stores short surges of data generated by data-acquisition system at excessively high rate and releases data at lower rate suitable for processing by computer. Size and complexity reduced while capacity enhanced by use of newly developed, sophisticated integrated circuits and by "byte-folding" scheme doubling effective depth and data rate.

Identifying surging glaciers in the Central Karakoram for improved climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, Frank; Bolch, Tobias; Mölg, Nico; Rastner, Philipp

2015-04-01

Several recent studies have investigated glacier changes in the Karakoram mountain range, a region where glaciers behave differently (mass gain and advancing tongues) compared to most other regions in the world. Attribution of this behaviour to climate change is challenging, as many glaciers in the Karakoram are of surge type and have actively surged in the recent past. The measured changes in length, area, volume or velocity in this region are thus depending on the time-period analysed and include non-climatic components. Hence, a proper analysis of climate change impacts on glaciers in this region requires a separation of the surging from the non-surging glaciers. This is challenging as the former often lack the typical surface characteristics such as looped moraines (e.g. when they are steep and small) and/or they merge (during a surge) with a larger non-surging glacier and create looped moraines on its surface. By analysing time series of satellite images that are available since 1961, the heterogeneous behaviour of glaciers in the Karakoram can be revealed. In this study, we have analysed changes in glacier terminus positions in the Karakoram over different time periods from 1961 to 2014 for several hundred glaciers using Corona KH-4 and KH-4B, Hexagon KH-9, Terra ASTER, and Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ and OLI satellite data. For the last 15 years, high-speed animations of image time-series reveal details of glacier flow and surge dynamics that are otherwise difficult to detect. For example, several of the larger glaciers with surging tributaries (e.g. Panmah, Sarpo Laggo, Skamri, K2 glacier) are stationary and downwasting despite the mass contributions from the surging glaciers. The analysis of the entire time series reveals a complex pattern of changes through time with retreating, advancing, surging and stationary glaciers that are partly regionally clustered. While most of the non-surging glaciers show only small changes in terminus position (±100 m or less

Experiments and modelling of surge in small centrifugal compressor for automotive engines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Galindo, J.; Serrano, J.R.; Climent, H.

2008-01-15

In this paper the surge phenomenon in small centrifugal compressors used for turbocharging internal combustion engines is analyzed. The experimental work was focused on the measurement of compressor behaviour within the surge zone by means of a specifically designed facility. The presented model is based on the introduction of a fluid inertia term that accounts for the non quasi steady effects and the use of a compressor map extended to the surge and negative flows zone obtained from experimental tests. The compressor model was implemented in a one-dimensional gas-dynamic model. The comparison of the modelled and measured evolution of instantaneousmore » pressure during deep surge operation shows good agreement. Furthermore, the model is also able to predict the amplitude and frequency of pressure pulses when the compressor operates in surge with different outlet duct lengths. (author)« less

Coordinated Ground and Space Measurements of Auroral Surge over South Pole.

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-02-01

3y V. Coordinated Ground and Space Measurements of co an Auroral Surge over South Pole T. J. ROSENBERG and D. L. DETRICK Institute for Physical...Measurements of an Auroral Surge over South Pole 12. PERSONAL AUTHOR(S) Rosenberg, T. J., and DetrickD. L., University of Maryland; Mizera, Paul F., 13a. TYPE...premidnight auroral surge over Amundsen-Scott South Pole station. The set of near-simultaneous measurements provides an excellent opportunity to gain a

Why does substorm-associated auroral surge travel westward?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebihara, Y.; Tanaka, T.

2018-01-01

A substorm is a long-standing unsolved issue in solar-terrestrial physics. One of the big challenges is to explain reasonably the evolution of the morphological structure of the aurora associated with the substorm. The sudden appearance of a bright aurora and an auroral surge traveling westward (westward traveling surge, WTS) are noticeable features of the aurora during the substorm expansion phase. By using a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulation, we obtained the following results regarding the WTS. When the interplanetary magnetic field turns southward, a persistent dynamo appears in the cusp/mantle region, driving the two-cell magnetospheric convection. Then, the substorm growth phase begins. When magnetic reconnection takes place in the magnetotail, plasma is accelerated earthward in the plasma sheet, and accelerated toward the equatorial plane in the lobe. The second dynamo appears in the near-Earth region, which is closely associated with the generation of the field-aligned current (FAC) on the nightside. When the FAC reaches the ionosphere, the aurora becomes bright, and the onset of the expansion phase begins. In the ionosphere, the conductivity is intensified in the bright aurora due to the precipitation of accelerated electrons. The conductivity gradient gives rise to the overflow of the Hall current, which acts as the third dynamo. The overflow results in the accumulation of space charge, which causes a divergent electric field. The divergent electric field generates a thin, structured upward FAC adjacent to the bright aurora. The opposite process takes place on the opposite side of the bright aurora. In short, the upward FAC increases (appearance of aurora) at the leading edge of the surge, and decreases (disappearance of aurora) at the trailing edge of the surge. By repeating these processes, the surge seems to travel westward.

Early risk of mortality after coronary artery revascularization in patients with left ventricular dysfunction and potential role of the wearable cardioverter defibrillator.

PubMed

Zishiri, Edwin T; Williams, Sarah; Cronin, Edmond M; Blackstone, Eugene H; Ellis, Stephen G; Roselli, Eric E; Smedira, Nicholas G; Gillinov, A Marc; Glad, Jo Ann; Tchou, Patrick J; Szymkiewicz, Steven J; Chung, Mina K

2013-02-01

Implantation of implantable cardioverter defibrillator for prevention of sudden cardiac death is deferred for 90 days after coronary revascularization, but mortality may be highest early after cardiac procedures in patients with ventricular dysfunction. We determined mortality risk in postrevascularization patients with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% and compared survival with those discharged with a wearable cardioverter defibrillator (WCD). Hospital survivors after surgical (coronary artery bypass graft surgery) or percutaneous (percutaneous coronary intervention [PCI]) revascularization with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% were included from Cleveland Clinic and national WCD registries. Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazards, propensity score-matched survival, and hazard function analyses were performed. Early mortality hazard was higher among 4149 patients discharged without a defibrillator compared with 809 with WCDs (90-day mortality post-coronary artery bypass graft surgery 7% versus 3%, P=0.03; post-PCI 10% versus 2%, P<0.0001). WCD use was associated with adjusted lower risks of long-term mortality in the total cohort (39%, P<0.0001) and both post-coronary artery bypass graft surgery (38%, P=0.048) and post-PCI (57%, P<0.0001) cohorts (mean follow-up, 3.2 years). In propensity-matched analyses, WCD use remained associated with lower mortality (58% post-coronary artery bypass graft surgery, P=0.002; 67% post-PCI, P<0.0001). Mortality differences were not attributable solely to therapies for ventricular arrhythmia. Only 1.3% of the WCD group had a documented appropriate therapy. Patients with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% have higher early compared to late mortality after coronary revascularization, particularly after PCI. As early hazard seemed less marked in WCD users, prospective studies in this high-risk population are indicated to confirm whether WCD use as a bridge to left ventricular ejection fraction improvement or

Effect of Hydraulic Accumulator on Pressure Surge of a Hydrostatic Transmission System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Ajit; Das, Jayanta; Dasgupta, Kabir; Barnwal, Manish Kumar

2018-04-01

Hydraulic power system is generally used in off-road vehicles for power transmission such as Heavy Earth Moving Machineries (HEMM). Their energy efficiency and unsubstantial failure becomes an extensive subject of analysis. Various arrangements in the system are compassed along with the utilization of some appropriate components. Application of a hydraulic accumulator is one among them. Benefits of accumulator is its multi-purpose usages like energy saving and pressure surge damping. This paper deals with the control of pressure surges in the hydraulic system and energy saving from the surges by using accumulator. For this purpose, the simulation of the hydraulic system is done in MATLAB/SimulinkR environment and an external disturbance is introduced to generate the pressure surge. The surge absorptivity of the accumulator is studied for different sizes at different pre-charged conditions of the accumulator. The discharge characteristics of different sized accumulators are also analyzed in this paper. It is observed that the ability to absorb the surge and stabilize the system is high in the smaller capacity accumulator. However the energy delivery time of larger sized accumulator is high.

Surge Pressure Mitigation in the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission Core Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scroggins, Ashley R.; Fiebig, Mark D.

2014-01-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is an international partnership between NASA and JAXA whose Core spacecraft performs cutting-edge measurements of rainfall and snowfall worldwide and unifies data gathered by a network of precipitation measurement satellites. The Core spacecraft's propulsion system is a blowdown monopropellant system with an initial hydrazine load of 545 kg in a single composite overwrapped propellant tank. At launch, the propulsion system contained propellant in the tank and manifold tubes upstream of the latch valves, with low-pressure helium gas in the manifold tubes downstream of the latch valves. The system had a relatively high beginning-of- life pressure and long downstream manifold lines; these factors created conditions that were conducive to high surge pressures. This paper discusses the GPM project's approach to surge mitigation in the propulsion system design. The paper describes the surge testing program and results, with discussions of specific difficulties encountered. Based on the results of surge testing and pressure drop analyses, a unique configuration of cavitating venturis was chosen to mitigate surge while minimizing pressure losses during thruster maneuvers. This paper concludes with a discussion of overall lessons learned with surge pressure testing for NASA Goddard spacecraft programs.

Crevasses as indicators of surge dynamics in the Bering Bagley Glacier System, Alaska: Numerical experiments and comparison to image data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trantow, T.; Herzfeld, U. C.

2016-12-01

During a surge, sections of a glacier will accelerate 10-100 times their normal flow velocity resulting in sudden changes in the local stress regime. A glacier surface can fracture when a critical stress threshold is exceeded resulting in surface deformation, i.e. crevassing. During a recent field campaign to Bering Glacier, Alaska, in 2011 (and later in 2012, 2013), large scale deformation of the glacier surface was observed, indicating a major surge phase had recently occurred (Herzfeld et al. 2013). In the current study, geostatistical analysis is applied to satellite imagery to characterize the surge-induced crevasses that were present during the surge phase that began in early 2011. Results are compared to a three-dimensional, isothermal, full-Stokes model of Bering Glacier implemented in the open-source finite element software Elmer/Ice, which predicts locations and orientations of crevassing based on a failure criterion involving the magnitude(s) of the principal stress(es). Since most of the movement during a surge is due to basal sliding from decreased friction at the ice-bedrock interface, a relatively accurate representation of the the basal conditions is required to accurately model the ice dynamics and hence its stress regime. To achieve this, we invert velocity data derived from image correlation to attain estimations of the basal friction coefficient that governs basal sliding in the model. The methods employed here provide a procedure to identify discrepancies between observations and models of ice-flow during acceleration events.

The mortality patterns of lung cancer between 1990 and 2013 in Xuanwei, China.

PubMed

Chen, Gongbo; Sun, Xin; Ren, Hongyan; Wan, Xia; Huang, Hecang; Ma, Xiangyun; Ning, Bofu; Zou, Xiaonong; Hu, Weijiang; Yang, Gonghuan

2015-11-01

To explore the variations in the mortality trends, especially death due to lung cancer, from 1990 to 2013 in Xuanwei City. Mortality data were collected in Xuanwei during the 2nd and 3rd National Retrospective Sampling Survey on Mortality and Routine Death Registration System (DRS) during 2011-2013. According to the result of the survey on under-reported deaths, mortality data from DRS during 2011-2013 were adjusted. Disease specific mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and 45Q15 were calculated in Xuanwei and compared with those in rural areas of China. During three periods, 1990-1992, 2004-2005 and 2011-2013, lung cancer contributed to 56.86%, 58.45% and 63.03% of deaths from all cancers respectively with a much higher proportion than rural areas nationally. The ASMR of lung cancer for males surged from 41.43/10(5) to 88.17/10(5) during 1990-2005 and it surged from 37.70/10(5) to 74.45/10(5) for females. Although they declined slightly during 2011-2013 (82.53/10(5) and 62.62/10(5) for males and females respectively), the ASMR of lung cancer among males in Xuanwei was three times of that in rural areas in China, and it was six times higher among females. The 45Q15 of lung cancer for males in Xuanwei was 3-5 times of that in rural areas of China and for females it was 7-9 times. The high-mortality areas of lung cancer were still located in Laibin, Longchang, Wanshui and Shuanglong Communities. High-mortality areas of lung cancer expanded to their surrounding areas and those in southeast. Although indoor air pollution caused by smoky coal has been fairly well controlled, patterns of death due to lung cancer have not obviously changed. The mortality rate of lung cancer among females was similar to that among males. Therefore, further studies should be conducted to comprehensively explore the risk factors of lung cancer in Xuanwei. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Impact of hurricanes storm surges on the groundwater resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Biersel, T. P.; Carlson, D.A.; Milner, L.R.

2007-01-01

Ocean surges onto coastal lowlands caused by tropical and extra tropical storms, tsunamis, and sea level rise affect all coastal lowlands and present a threat to drinking water resources of many coastal residents. In 2005, two such storms, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita struck the Gulf Coast of the US. Since September 2005, water samples have been collected from water wells impacted by the hurricanes' storm surges along the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain in southeastern Louisiana. The private and public water wells tested were submerged by 0.6-4.5 m of surging saltwater for several hours. The wells' casing and/or the associated plumbing were severely damaged. Water samples were collected to determine if storm surge water inundated the well casing and, if so, its effect on water quality within the shallow aquifers of the Southern Hills Aquifer System. In addition, the samples were used to determine if the impact on water quality may have long-term implication for public health. Laboratory testing for several indicator parameters (Ca/Mg, Cl/Si, chloride, boron, specific conductance and bacteria) indicates that surge water entered water wells' casing and the screened aquifer. Analysis of the groundwater shows a decrease in the Ca/Mg ratio right after the storm and then a return toward pre-Katrina values. Chloride concentrations were elevated right after Katrina and Rita, and then decreased downward toward pre-Katrina values. From September 2005 to June 2006, the wells showed improvement in all the saltwater intrusion indicators. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

The Gorbachev Anti-Alcohol Campaign and Russia’s Mortality Crisis

PubMed Central

Bhattacharya, Jay; Gathmann, Christina

2013-01-01

Political and economic transition is often blamed for Russia’s 40% surge in deaths between 1990 and 1994. Highlighting that increases in mortality occurred primarily among alcohol-related causes and among working-age men (the heaviest drinkers), this paper investigates an alternative explanation: the demise of the 1985–1988 Gorbachev Anti-Alcohol Campaign. Using archival sources to build a new oblast-year data set spanning 1978–2000, we find a variety of evidence suggesting that the campaign’s end explains a large share of the mortality crisis – implying that Russia’s transition to capitalism and democracy was not as lethal as commonly suggested. PMID:24224067

Risk factors of early and late mortality after thoracic endovascular aortic repair for complicated stanford B acute aortic dissection.

PubMed

Ruan, Zhong-Bao; Zhu, Li; Yin, Yi-Gang; Chen, Ge-Cai

2014-07-01

The risk factors associated with death in complicated Stanford B acute aortic dissection (AAD) after thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to evaluate the early and late events and mortality of complicated Stanford B AAD associated with TEVAR. Sixty-two patients with complicated Stanford B AAD undergoing TEVAR were included in this study. Primary technical success of TEVAR was achieved in 61 (98.39%) cases. The early mortality rate was 9.68%. Procedural type I endoleak (p = 0.007, OR = 7.71, 95% CI: 1.75-34.01) and cardiac tamponade (p = 0.010, OR = 8.86, 95% CI: 1.70-4 6.14) were the significant predictors of early death in the multivariate model. The late mortality was 16.07%. Cox regression analysis revealed rupture of false lumen (p = 0.001, hazard ratio = 21.96, 95% CI: 3.02-82.12), postoperative myocardial infarction (p = 0.001, hazard ratio = 9.86, 95% CI: 2.12-39.64), and acute renal failure (p = 0.024, hazard ratio = 3.98, 95% CI: 1.26-12.11) to be independent risk factors of late mortality. Type I procedural endoleak and cardiac tamponade were the significant predictors of early death in patients of complicated Stanford B AAD undergoing TEVAR. Rupture of false lumen, postoperative myocardial infarction, and acute renal failure were the independent risk factors for late death after TEVAR. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Local amplification of storm surge by Super Typhoon Haiyan in Leyte Gulf

PubMed Central

Mori, Nobuhito; Kato, Masaya; Kim, Sooyoul; Mase, Hajime; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya; Tsuboki, Kazuhisa; Yasuda, Tomohiro

2014-01-01

Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines in November 2013, was an extremely intense tropical cyclone that had a catastrophic impact. The minimum central pressure of Typhoon Haiyan was 895 hPa, making it the strongest typhoon to make landfall on a major island in the western North Pacific Ocean. The characteristics of Typhoon Haiyan and its related storm surge are estimated by numerical experiments using numerical weather prediction models and a storm surge model. Based on the analysis of best hindcast results, the storm surge level was 5–6 m and local amplification of water surface elevation due to seiche was found to be significant inside Leyte Gulf. The numerical experiments show the coherent structure of the storm surge profile due to the specific bathymetry of Leyte Gulf and the Philippines Trench as a major contributor to the disaster in Tacloban. The numerical results also indicated the sensitivity of storm surge forecast. PMID:25821268

Local amplification of storm surge by Super Typhoon Haiyan in Leyte Gulf.

PubMed

Mori, Nobuhito; Kato, Masaya; Kim, Sooyoul; Mase, Hajime; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya; Tsuboki, Kazuhisa; Yasuda, Tomohiro

2014-07-28

Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines in November 2013, was an extremely intense tropical cyclone that had a catastrophic impact. The minimum central pressure of Typhoon Haiyan was 895 hPa, making it the strongest typhoon to make landfall on a major island in the western North Pacific Ocean. The characteristics of Typhoon Haiyan and its related storm surge are estimated by numerical experiments using numerical weather prediction models and a storm surge model. Based on the analysis of best hindcast results, the storm surge level was 5-6 m and local amplification of water surface elevation due to seiche was found to be significant inside Leyte Gulf. The numerical experiments show the coherent structure of the storm surge profile due to the specific bathymetry of Leyte Gulf and the Philippines Trench as a major contributor to the disaster in Tacloban. The numerical results also indicated the sensitivity of storm surge forecast.

Centrifugal Compressor Surge Margin Improved With Diffuser Hub Surface Air Injection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skoch, Gary J.

2002-01-01

Aerodynamic stability is an important parameter in the design of compressors for aircraft gas turbine engines. Compression system instabilities can cause compressor surge, which may lead to the loss of an aircraft. As a result, engine designers include a margin of safety between the operating line of the engine and the stability limit line of the compressor. The margin of safety is typically referred to as "surge margin." Achieving the highest possible level of surge margin while meeting design point performance objectives is the goal of the compressor designer. However, performance goals often must be compromised in order to achieve adequate levels of surge margin. Techniques to improve surge margin will permit more aggressive compressor designs. Centrifugal compressor surge margin improvement was demonstrated at the NASA Glenn Research Center by injecting air into the vaned diffuser of a 4:1-pressure-ratio centrifugal compressor. Tests were performed using injector nozzles located on the diffuser hub surface of a vane-island diffuser in the vaneless region between the impeller trailing edge and the diffuser-vane leading edge. The nozzle flow path and discharge shape were designed to produce an air stream that remained tangent to the hub surface as it traveled into the diffuser passage. Injector nozzles were located near the leading edge of 23 of the 24 diffuser vanes. One passage did not contain an injector so that instrumentation located in that passage would be preserved. Several orientations of the injected stream relative to the diffuser vane leading edge were tested over a range of injected flow rates. Only steady flow (nonpulsed) air injection was tested. At 100 percent of the design speed, a 15-percent improvement in the baseline surge margin was achieved with a nozzle orientation that produced a jet that was bisected by the diffuser vane leading edge. Other orientations also improved the baseline surge margin. Tests were conducted at speeds below the

Early mortality in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia in a developing country: the role of malnutrition at diagnosis. A multicenter cohort MIGICCL study.

PubMed

Martín-Trejo, Jorge Alfonso; Núñez-Enríquez, Juan Carlos; Fajardo-Gutiérrez, Arturo; Medina-Sansón, Aurora; Flores-Lujano, Janet; Jiménez-Hernández, Elva; Amador-Sanchez, Raquel; Peñaloza-Gonzalez, José Gabriel; Alvarez-Rodriguez, Francisco Javier; Bolea-Murga, Victoria; Espinosa-Elizondo, Rosa Martha; de Diego Flores-Chapa, José; Pérez-Saldivar, Maria Luisa; Rodriguez-Zepeda, María Del Carmen; Dorantes-Acosta, Elisa María; Núñez-Villegas, Nora Nancy; Velazquez-Aviña, Martha Margarita; Torres-Nava, José Refugio; Reyes-Zepeda, Nancy Carolina; González-Bonilla, César Raúl; Flores-Villegas, Luz Victoria; Rangel-López, Angélica; Rivera-Luna, Roberto; Paredes-Aguilera, Rogelio; Cárdenas-Cardós, Rocío; Martínez-Avalos, Armando; Gil-Hernández, Ana Elena; Duarte-Rodríguez, David Aldebarán; Mejía-Aranguré, Juan Manuel

2017-04-01

The role of malnutrition at diagnosis as a predictor of early mortality in Mexican leukemia children remains controversial. The objective of present study was to investigate whether malnutrition was a predictor of early mortality during the first year of treatment in Mexican acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) children through the first population-based study. A total of 794 newly diagnosed ALL pediatric patients from public hospitals of Mexico City were enrolled. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed and adjusted by patient's age at diagnosis, gender, hospital of treatment, and socioeconomic status. Early mortality was high (12.1%) and malnutrition by different indicators was not associated with mortality at induction phase and at 6th month; a high risk of dying (RR = 2.08; 95% CI: 1.08-4.01) was observed in the group of malnourished children with a high-risk ALL.

Linkage of Rainfall-Runoff and Hurricane Storm Surge in Galveston Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deitz, R.; Christian, J.; Wright, G.; Fang, N.; Bedient, P.

2012-12-01

In conjunction with the SSPEED Center, large rainfall events in the upper Gulf of Mexico are being studied in an effort to help design a surge gate to protect the Houston Ship Channel during hurricane events. The ship channel is the world's second largest petrochemical complex and the Coast Guard estimates that a one-month closure would have a $60 billion dollar impact on the national economy. In this effort, statistical design storms, such as the 24-hour PMP, as well as historical storms, like Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Katrina, and Hurricane Rita, are being simulated in a hydrologic/hydraulic model using radar and rain gauge data. VfloTM, a distributed hydrologic model, is being used to quantify the effect that storm size, intensity, and location has on timing and peak flows in the in the upper drainage area. These hydrographs were input to a hydraulic model with various storm surges from Galveston Bay. Results indicate that there is a double peak phenomenon with flows from the west draining days earlier than flows from the north. With storm surge typically lasting 36-48 hours, this indicates the flows from the west are interacting with the storm surge, whereas flows from the north would arrive once the storm surge is receding. Gate operations were optimized in the model to account for the relative timing of upland runoff and hurricane surge, and to quantify the capability of the gate structure to protect the Ship Channel industry.

Impact of using scatterometer and altimeter data on storm surge forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajo, Marco; De Biasio, Francesco; Umgiesser, Georg; Vignudelli, Stefano; Zecchetto, Stefano

2017-05-01

Satellite data are rarely used in storm surge models because of the lack of established methodologies. Nevertheless, they can provide useful information on surface wind and sea level, which can potentially improve the forecast. In this paper satellite wind data are used to correct the bias of wind originating from a global atmospheric model, while satellite sea level data are used to improve the initial conditions of the model simulations. In a first step, the capability of global winds (biased and unbiased) to adequately force a storm surge model are assessed against that of a high resolution local wind. Then, the added value of direct assimilation of satellite altimeter data in the storm surge model is tested. Eleven storm surge events, recorded in Venice from 2008 to 2012, are simulated using different configurations of wind forcing and altimeter data assimilation. Focusing on the maximum surge peak, results show that the relative error, averaged over the eleven cases considered, decreases from 13% to 7%, using both the unbiased wind and assimilating the altimeter data, while, if the high resolution local wind is used to force the hydrodynamic model, the altimeter data assimilation reduces the error from 9% to 6%. Yet, the overall capabilities in reproducing the surge in the first day of forecast, measured by the correlation and by the rms error, improve only with the use of the unbiased global wind and not with the use of high resolution local wind and altimeter data assimilation.

A new dynamical index for classification of cold surge types over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Tae-Won; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Heo, Jin-Woo; Deng, Yi

2015-11-01

The cold surges over East Asia can be classified into wave-train type and blocking type according to their dynamic origins. In the present study, two dynamic indices are proposed to objectively identify cold surge types using potential temperature ( θ) on the dynamic tropopause at 2-potential vorticity units (2-PVU) surface. The two indices are designed to represent primary characteristics of the two types of cold surge. The wave-train index ( WI) is defined as a difference of anomalous θ on the 2-PVU surface between the western North Pacific and northeast China, which captures a southward (northward) intrusion of cold (warm) air mass related to the trough-ridge pattern. The blocking index ( BI) is defined as a difference of anomalous θ between the subarctic region and northeast China, which indicates air mass overturning related to a reversal of the usual meridional θ gradient commonly observed in the occurrence of blocking type cold surge. Composite analyses based on the distribution of the WI and BI clearly demonstrate the dynamic evolutions of corresponding cold surge types. The wave-train cold surge is associated with a southeastward expansion of the Siberian High and northerly wind near surface, which is caused by growing baroclinic waves. During the blocking cold surge, a geopotential height dipole indicating the subarctic blocking and deepening of East Asian coastal trough induces a southward expansion of the Siberian High and northeasterly wind. Compared to the wave-train type, the blocking cold surge exhibits a longer duration and stronger intensity. In the new framework of these dynamic indices, we can detect a third type of cold surge when both the wave-train and the blocking occur together. In addition, we can exclude the events that do not have the essential features of the upper tropospheric disturbances or the subarctic anticyclonic circulation, which are responsible for cold surge occurrence, using the new indices.

Early graft dysfunction and mortality rate in marginal donor liver transplantation.

PubMed

Sarkut, Pmar; Gülcü, Bariş; Işçimen, Remzi; Kiyici, Murat; Türker, Gürkan; Topal, Naile Bolca; Ozen, Yilmaz; Kaya, Ekrem

2014-01-01

To determine the effect of marginal donor livers on mortality and graft survival in liver transplantation (LT) recipients. Donors with any 1 of following were considered marginal donors: age ≥65 years, sodium level ≥ 165 mmol/L and cold ischemia time ≥ 12 h. Donors were classified according to the donor risk index (DRI) < 1.7 and ≥ 1.7. The transplant recipients' model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were considered low if < 20 and high if ≥ 20. Early graft dysfunction (EGD) and mortality rate were evaluated. During the study period 47 patients underwent cadaveric LT. The mean age of the donors and recipients was 45 years (range: 5-72 years) and 46 years (range: 4-66 years), respectively. In all, there were 15 marginal donors and 18 donors with a DRI > 1.7. In total, 4 LT patients that received livers from marginal donors and 5 that received livers from donors with a DRI ≥ 1.7 had EGD. Among the recipients of marginal livers, 5 died, versus 4 of the recipients of standard livers. There was no significant difference in EGD or mortality rate between the patients that received livers from marginal donors or those with a DRI ≥ 1.7 and patients that received standard donor livers. Marginal and DRI ≥ 1.7 donors negatively affected LT outcomes, but not significantly.

Migration and health: a study of effects of early life experiences and current socio-economic situation on mortality of immigrants in Sweden.

PubMed

Klinthäll, Martin; Lindström, Martin

2011-12-01

Previous research has demonstrated mortality differences between immigrants and natives living in Sweden. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of early life conditions in the country of birth and current socio-economic conditions in adult life in Sweden on cardiovascular, cancer, all other cause and total mortality among immigrants and natives in Sweden. The cohort data concerning individual demographic characteristics and socio-economic conditions stems from the Swedish Longitudinal Immigrant Database (SLI), a register-based representative database, and consists of individuals from 11 countries of birth, born between 1921 and 1939, who were residents in Sweden between 1980 and 2001. The associations between current socio-economic conditions as well as infant mortality rates (IMR) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in the year and country of birth, and total, cardiovascular, cancer and 'all other' mortality in 1980-2001 were calculated by survival analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate hazard rate ratios. The effects of current adult life socio-economic conditions in Sweden on mortality are both stronger and more straightforward than the effects of early life conditions in the sense that higher socio-economic status is significantly associated with lower mortality in all groups of diagnoses; however, we find associations between infant mortality rates (IMR) in the year and country of birth, and cancer mortality among men and women in the final model. Socioeconomic conditions in Sweden are more strongly associated with mortality than early life indicators IMR and GDP per capita in the year of birth in the country of origin. This finding has health policy and other policy implications.

Does early functional outcome predict 1-year mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture?

PubMed

Dubljanin-Raspopović, Emilija; Marković-Denić, Ljiljana; Marinković, Jelena; Nedeljković, Una; Bumbaširević, Marko

2013-08-01

Hip fractures in the elderly are followed by considerable risk of functional decline and mortality. The purposes of this study were to (1) explore predictive factors of functional level at discharge, (2) evaluate 1-year mortality after hip fracture compared with that of the general population, and (3) evaluate the affect of early functional outcome on 1-year mortality in patients operated on for hip fractures. A total of 228 consecutive patients (average age, 77.6 ± 7.4 years) with hip fractures who met the inclusion criteria were enrolled in an open, prospective, observational cohort study. Functional level at discharge was measured with the motor Functional Independence Measure (FIM) score, which is the most widely accepted functional assessment measure in use in the rehabilitation community. Mortality rates in the study population were calculated in absolute numbers and as the standardized mortality ratio. Multivariate regression analysis was used to explore predictive factors for motor FIM score at discharge and for 1-year mortality adjusted for important baseline variables. Age, health status, cognitive level, preinjury functional level, and pressure sores after hip fracture surgery were independently related to lower discharge motor FIM scores. At 1-year followup, 57 patients (25%; 43 women and 14 men) had died. The 1-year hip fracture mortality rate compared with that of the general population was 31% in our population versus 7% for men and 23% in our population versus 5% for women 65 years or older. The 1-year standardized mortality rate was 341.3 (95% CI, 162.5-520.1) for men and 301.6 (95% CI, 212.4-391.8) for women, respectively. The all-cause mortality rate observed in this group was higher in all age groups and in both sexes when compared with the all-cause age-adjusted mortality of the general population. Motor FIM score at discharge was the only independent predictor of 1-year mortality after hip fracture. Functional level at discharge is the main

Detecting early warning signals of tree mortality using multi-scale satellite data: a case study in boreal North Americ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, B. M.; Hogg, E. H.; Solvik, K.; Ju, J.; Masek, J. G.; Michaelian, M.; Berner, L. T.; Goetz, S. J.

2017-12-01

Tree mortality from drought and biotic infestations represents a fundamental transition for forests at the level of an individual tree, forest stand, and even landscape. Tree mortality precipitates a cascade of ecosystem impacts and has been increasing across the continents, including in the boreal zone where climate changes and feedbacks to the Earth system are relatively large. Despite the importance for science and management communities, our ability to forecast tree mortality at landscape to continental scales is limited. However, two independent information streams have the potential to inform and significantly improve mortality forecasts. Tree-level productivity dynamics are known to precede mortality in predictable ways years to decades before death. Plot-level productivity, in turn, has been related to satellite-based indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Here we link these two data sources to show that early warning signals of mortality are evident in several NDVI-based metrics up to 20 years before death. We focus on two repeat forest inventories and three NDVI products across western boreal North America where productivity and mortality dynamics are influenced by periodic drought. These data sources capture a range in forest conditions and spatial resolution to highlight the sensitivity and limitations of our approach. Overall, results indicate potential to use satellite NDVI for early warning signals of mortality. Relationships are broadly consistent across inventories, species, and spatial resolutions, although coarse-scale imagery in the heterogeneous aspen parkland was of limited utility. Longer-term NDVI data and annually re-measured sites with high mortality levels generate the strongest signals, although we still found robust relationships at sites re-measured at a typical five-year frequency. The approach and relationships developed here can be used as a basis for improving forest mortality models and monitoring

Efficacy of Cruise Control in controlling postocclusion surge with Legacy and Millennium venturi phacoemulsification machines.

PubMed

Wade, Matthew; Isom, Ryan; Georgescu, Dan; Olson, Randall J

2007-06-01

To determine the efficacy of the Cruise Control surge-limiting device (Staar Surgical) with phacoemulsification machines known to have high levels of surge. John A. Moran Eye Center Clinical Laboratories. In an in vitro study, postocclusion anterior chamber depth changes were measured in fresh phakic human eye-bank eyes using the Alcon Legacy and Bausch & Lomb Millennium venturi machines in conjunction with the Staar Cruise Control device. Both machines were tested with 19-gauge non-Aspiration Bypass System tips at high-surge settings (500 mm Hg vacuum pressure, 75 cm bottle height, 40 mL/min flow rate for the Legacy) and low-surge settings (400 mm Hg vacuum pressure, 125 cm bottle height, 40 mL/min flow rate for the Legacy). Adjusted parameters of flow, vacuum, and irrigation were used based on previous studies to create identical conditions for each device tested. The effect of the Cruise Control device on aspiration rates was also tested with both machines at the low-surge settings. At the high setting with the addition of Cruise Control, surge decreased significantly with the Legacy but was too large to measure with the Millennium venturi. At the low setting with the addition of Cruise Control, surge decreased significantly with both machines. Surge with the Millennium decreased from more than 1.0 mm to a mean of 0.21 mm +/- 0.02 (SD) (P<.0001). Surge with the Legacy decreased from a mean of 0.09 +/- 0.02 mm to 0.05 +/- 0 mm, a 42.9% decrease (P<.0001). The Millennium had the highest surge and aspiration rate before Cruise Control and the greatest percentage decrease in the surge and aspiration rates as a result of the addition of Cruise Control. In the Legacy machine, the Cruise Control device had a statistically and clinically significant effect. Cruise Control had a large effect on fluidics as well as surge amplitude with the Millennium machine. The greater the flow or greater the initial surge, the greater the impact of the Cruise Control device.

Early Life Stress Affects Mortality Rate More than Social Behavior, Gene Expression or Oxidative Damage in Honey Bee Workers

PubMed Central

Rueppell, Olav; Yousefi, Babak; Collazo, Juan; Smith, Daniel

2017-01-01

Early life stressors can affect aging and life expectancy in positive or negative ways. Individuals can adjust their behavior and molecular physiology based on early life experiences but relatively few studies have connected such mechanisms to demographic patterns in social organisms. Sociality buffers individuals from environmental influences and it is unclear how much early life stress affects later life history. Workers of the honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) were exposed to two stressors, Varroa parasitism and paraquat exposure, early in life. Consequences were measured at the molecular, behavioral, and demographic level. While treatments did not significantly affect levels of oxidative damage, expression of select genes, and titers of the common deformed wing virus, most of these measures were affected by age. Some of the age effects, such as declining levels of deformed wing virus and oxidative damage, were opposite to our predictions but may be explained by demographic selection. Further analyses suggested some influences of worker behavior on mortality and indicated weak treatment effects on behavior. The latter effects were inconsistent among the two experiments. However, mortality rate was consistently reduced by Varroa mite stress during development. Thus, mortality was more responsive to early life stress than our other response variables. The lack of treatment effects on these measures may be due to the social organization of honey bees that buffers the individual from the impact of stressful developmental conditions. PMID:28122251

Early life stress affects mortality rate more than social behavior, gene expression or oxidative damage in honey bee workers.

PubMed

Rueppell, Olav; Yousefi, Babak; Collazo, Juan; Smith, Daniel

2017-04-01

Early life stressors can affect aging and life expectancy in positive or negative ways. Individuals can adjust their behavior and molecular physiology based on early life experiences but relatively few studies have connected such mechanisms to demographic patterns in social organisms. Sociality buffers individuals from environmental influences and it is unclear how much early life stress affects later life history. Workers of the honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) were exposed to two stressors, Varroa parasitism and Paraquat exposure, early in life. Consequences were measured at the molecular, behavioral, and demographic level. While treatments did not significantly affect levels of oxidative damage, expression of select genes, and titers of the common deformed wing virus, most of these measures were affected by age. Some of the age effects, such as declining levels of deformed wing virus and oxidative damage, were opposite to our predictions but may be explained by demographic selection. Further analyses suggested some influences of worker behavior on mortality and indicated weak treatment effects on behavior. The latter effects were inconsistent among the two experiments. However, mortality rate was consistently reduced by Varroa mite stress during development. Thus, mortality was more responsive to early life stress than our other response variables. The lack of treatment effects on these measures may be due to the social organization of honey bees that buffers the individual from the impact of stressful developmental conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Basis Function Approach to Simulate Storm Surge Events for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Wenyan; Westra, Seth; Leonard, Michael

2017-04-01

Storm surge is a significant contributor to flooding in coastal and estuarine regions, especially when it coincides with other flood producing mechanisms, such as extreme rainfall. Therefore, storm surge has always been a research focus in coastal flood risk assessment. Often numerical models have been developed to understand storm surge events for risk assessment (Kumagai et al. 2016; Li et al. 2016; Zhang et al. 2016) (Bastidas et al. 2016; Bilskie et al. 2016; Dalledonne and Mayerle 2016; Haigh et al. 2014; Kodaira et al. 2016; Lapetina and Sheng 2015), and assess how these events may change or evolve in the future (Izuru et al. 2015; Oey and Chou 2016). However, numeric models often require a lot of input information and difficulties arise when there are not sufficient data available (Madsen et al. 2015). Alternative, statistical methods have been used to forecast storm surge based on historical data (Hashemi et al. 2016; Kim et al. 2016) or to examine the long term trend in the change of storm surge events, especially under climate change (Balaguru et al. 2016; Oh et al. 2016; Rueda et al. 2016). In these studies, often the peak of surge events is used, which result in the loss of dynamic information within a tidal cycle or surge event (i.e. a time series of storm surge values). In this study, we propose an alternative basis function (BF) based approach to examine the different attributes (e.g. peak and durations) of storm surge events using historical data. Two simple two-parameter BFs were used: the exponential function and the triangular function. High quality hourly storm surge record from 15 tide gauges around Australia were examined. It was found that there are significantly location and seasonal variability in the peak and duration of storm surge events, which provides additional insights in coastal flood risk. In addition, the simple form of these BFs allows fast simulation of storm surge events and minimises the complexity of joint probability

Long-Term Mortality Effect of Early Pacemaker Implantation After Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement.

PubMed

Greason, Kevin L; Lahr, Brian D; Stulak, John M; Cha, Yong-Mei; Rea, Robert F; Schaff, Hartzell V; Dearani, Joseph A

2017-10-01

The need for pacemaker implantation is a well-described complication of aortic valve replacement. Not so well described is the effect such an event has on long-term outcome. This study reviewed a 21-year experience at the Mayo Clinic (Rochester, Minnesota) with aortic valve replacement to understand the influence of early postoperative pacemaker implantation on long-term mortality rates more clearly. This study retrospectively reviewed the records of 5,842 patients without previous pacemaker implantation who underwent surgical aortic valve replacement from January 1993 through June 2014. The median age of these patients was 73 years (range, 65 to 79 years), the median ejection fraction was 62% (range, 53% to 68%), 3,853 patients were male (66%), and coronary artery bypass graft operation was performed in 2,553 (44%) of the patients studied. Early pacemaker implantation occurred in 146 patients (2.5%) within 30 days of surgical aortic valve replacement. The median follow-up of patients was 11.1 years (range, 5.8 to 16.5 years), and all-cause mortality rates were 2.4% at 30 days, 6.4% at 1 year, 23.1% at 5 years, 48.3% at 10 years, and 67.9% at 15 years postoperatively. Early pacemaker implantation was associated with an increased risk of death after multivariable adjustment for baseline patients' characteristics (hazard ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.20, 1.84; p < 0.001). Early pacemaker implantation as a complication of surgical aortic valve replacement is associated with an increased risk of long-term death. Valve replacement-related pacemaker implantation rates should be important considerations with respect to new valve replacement paradigms, especially in younger and lower-risk patients. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Serum Phosphate Predicts Early Mortality among Underweight Adults Starting ART in Zambia: A Novel Context for Refeeding Syndrome?

PubMed Central

Koethe, John R.; Blevins, Meridith; Nyirenda, Christopher K.; Kabagambe, Edmond K.; Chiasera, Janelle M.; Shepherd, Bryan E.; Zulu, Isaac; Heimburger, Douglas C.

2013-01-01

Background. Low body mass index (BMI) at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is associated with early mortality, but the etiology is not well understood. We hypothesized that low pretreatment serum phosphate, a critical cellular metabolism intermediate primarily stored in skeletal muscle, may predict mortality within the first 12 weeks of ART. Methods. We prospectively studied 352 HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Lusaka, Zambia to estimate the odds of death for each 0.1 mmol/L decrease in baseline phosphate after adjusting for established predictors of mortality. Results. The distribution of phosphate values was similar across BMI categories (median value 1.2 mmol/L). Among the 145 participants with BMI <18.5 kg/m2, 28 (19%) died within 12 weeks. Lower pretreatment serum phosphate was associated with increased mortality (odds ratio (OR) 1.24 per 0.1 mmol/L decrement, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.47; P = 0.01) after adjusting for sex, age, and CD4+ lymphocyte count. A similar relationship was not observed among participants with BMI ≥18.5 kg/m2 (OR 0.96, 95% CI: 0.76 to 1.21; P = 0.74). Conclusions. The association of low pretreatment serum phosphate level and early ART mortality among undernourished individuals may represent a variant of the refeeding syndrome. Further studies of cellular metabolism in this population are needed. PMID:23691292

Early mortality in adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC): a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Gupta, Amita; Nadkarni, Girish; Yang, Wei-Teng; Chandrasekhar, Aditya; Gupte, Nikhil; Bisson, Gregory P; Hosseinipour, Mina; Gummadi, Naveen

2011-01-01

We systematically reviewed observational studies of early mortality post-antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) in Asia, Africa, and Central and South America, as defined by the World Bank, to summarize what is known. Studies published in English between January 1996 and December 2010 were searched in Medline and EMBASE. Three independent reviewers examined studies of mortality within one year post-ART. An article was included if the study was conducted in a LMIC, participants were initiating ART in a non-clinical trial setting and were ≥15 years. Fifty studies were included; 38 (76%) from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), 5 (10%) from Asia, 2 (4%) from the Americas, and 5 (10%) were multi-regional. Median follow-up time and pre-ART CD4 cell count ranged from 3-55 months and 11-192 cells/mm(3), respectively. Loss-to-follow-up, reported in 40 (80%) studies, ranged from 0.3%-27%. Overall, SSA had the highest pooled 12-month mortality probability of 0.17 (95% CI 0.11-0.24) versus 0.11 (95% CI 0.10-0.13) for Asia, and 0.07 (95% CI 0.007-0.20) for the Americas. Of 14 (28%) studies reporting cause-specific mortality, tuberculosis (TB) (5%-44%), wasting (5%-53%), advanced HIV (20%-37%), and chronic diarrhea (10%-25%) were most common. Independent factors associated with early mortality in 30 (60%) studies included: low baseline CD4 cell count, male sex, advanced World Health Organization clinical stage, low body mass index, anemia, age greater than 40 years, and pre-ART quantitative HIV RNA. Significant heterogeneity in outcomes and in methods of reporting outcomes exist among published studies evaluating mortality in the first year after ART initiation in LMIC. Early mortality rates are highest in SSA, and opportunistic illnesses such as TB and wasting syndrome are the most common reported causes of death. Strategies addressing modifiable risk factors associated with early death are urgently needed.

Assessment of water pipes durability under pressure surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham Ha, Hai; Minh, Lanh Pham Thi; Tang Van, Lam; Bulgakov, Boris; Bazhenova, Soafia

2017-10-01

Surge phenomenon occurs on the pipeline by the closing valve or pump suddenly lost power. Due to the complexity of the water hammer simulation, previous researches have only considered water hammer on the single pipe or calculation of some positions on water pipe network, it have not been analysis for all of pipe on the water distribution systems. Simulation of water hammer due to closing valve on water distribution system and the influence level of pressure surge is evaluated at the defects on pipe. Water hammer on water supply pipe network are simulated by Water HAMMER software academic version and the capacity of defects are calculated by SINTAP. SINTAP developed from Brite-Euram projects in Brussels-Belgium with the aim to develop a process for assessing the integrity of the structure for the European industry. Based on the principle of mechanical fault, indicating the size of defects in materials affect the load capacity of the product in the course of work, the process has proposed setting up the diagram to fatigue assessment defect (FAD). The methods are applied for water pipe networks of Lien Chieu district, Da Nang city, Viet Nam, the results show the affected area of wave pressure by closing the valve and thereby assess the greatest pressure surge effect to corroded pipe. The SINTAP standard and finite element mesh analysis at the defect during the occurrence of pressure surge which will accurately assess the bearing capacity of the old pipes. This is one of the bases to predict the leakage locations on the water distribution systems. Amount of water hammer when identified on the water supply networks are decreasing due to local losses at the nodes as well as the friction with pipe wall, so this paper adequately simulate water hammer phenomena applying for actual water distribution systems. The research verified that pipe wall with defect is damaged under the pressure surge value.

LOW PRETERM BIRTH RATE WITH DECREASING EARLY NEONATAL MORTALITY IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA DURING 2007-2014

PubMed Central

Hudic, Igor; Stray-Pedersen, Babill; Skokic, Fahrija; Fatusic, Zlatan; Zildzic-Moralic, Aida; Skokic, Maida; Fatusic, Jasenko

2016-01-01

The aim: of the study was to determine the situation of preterm births and early neonatal mortality during 2007-2014 in Tuzla Canton, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Methods: The study covers a 8-year period and is based on the protocols at the Tuzla Clinic for Gynecology and Obstetrics that covers all birth in Tuzla Canton area. We analyzed the gestational age of all newborns and recorded the number of neonatal deaths in the first week after birth. Demographics, pregnancy and birth characteristics were collected from the maternal records. Results: The total number of births in the period was 32738. Preterm birth was identified in 2401 (7.3%) cases with 12,5% occurring before 32 gestational weeks and 64% in 35-36 gestational weeks. The mothers of the 24-31 gws preterm group were significantly younger that those in the 32-36 group. In the 32-36 group there were significantly greater proportions of mothers with assisted reproductive technology and pre-eclampsia and 16.7% was medical induced preterm births versus 11.4 % in the 24-31 PTB group, p<0.05. The incidence of PTB did no vary significantly during the period, the lowest rate was found in 2010 (6.4%). A total of 221 children died giving a early mortality rate of 6.8 per 1000 live born over the 8 years. The majority 156 dying infants (70.6%) were preterm, only 5.7% died being born in the 35-36 gestational week (5.9 per 1000). Overall the preterm early mortality (7.3 per 1000) has shown a decreasing tendency during the latter years. Conclusion: During the last 8 years there have been no significant decline in preterm birth in the Tuzla region while a decline in early neonatal death has been registered. PMID:27047264

Optical dating of late Holocene storm surges from Schokland (Noordoostpolder, the Netherlands)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Biggelaar, Don; Kluiving, Sjoerd; van Balen, Roland; Kasse, Cronelils; Troelstra, Simon; Prins, Maarten; Wallinga, Jakob; Versendaal, Alice

2015-04-01

Storm surges have a major impact on land use and human habitation in coastal regions. Our understanding of this impact can be improved by correlating long-term historical storm records with sedimentary evidence of storm surges, but so far few studies use such an approach. Here we present detailed geological and historical data on late Holocene storm surges from the former island Schokland, located in the northern part of Flevoland (central Netherlands). During the late Holocene, Schokland transformed from a peat area that gradually inundated (~1200 yr ago) via an island in a marine environment (~400 yr ago) to a land-locked island in the reclaimed Province of Flevoland (~70 yr ago). Deposits formed between 1200 and 70 year ago on lower parts of the island, consist of a stacked sequence of clay and sand layers, with the latter being deposited during storm surges. We dated the sandy laminae of late Holocene storm surges in the clay deposit on Schokland to improve the age model of the island's flooding history during the last 1200 years. Samples for dating were obtained from a mechanical core at Schokland. The top of the peat underlying the clay and sand deposits was dated using 14C accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) of terrestrial plant and seed material. Sandy intervals of the flood deposits were dated using a series of ten quartz OSL ages, which were obtained using state-of-the-art methods to deal with incomplete resetting of the OSL signal. These new dates, together with laboratory analyses on the clay deposit (thermogravimetric analysis, grain-size analyses, foraminifera, bivalves and ostracods) and a literature study show that storm surges had a major impact on both the sedimentary and the anthropogenic history of Schokland. The results show that the stacked clay sequence is younger than expected, indicating either an increasing sedimentation rate or reworking of the clay by storm surges. Furthermore, the results indicate that a correlation can be made between

Socio-economic patterning in early mortality of patients aged 0-49 years diagnosed with primary bone cancer in Great Britain, 1985-2008.

PubMed

Blakey, Karen; Feltbower, Richard G; James, Peter W; Libby, Gillian; Stiller, Charles; Norman, Paul; Gerrand, Craig; McNally, Richard J Q

2018-04-01

Studies have shown marked improvements in survival between 1981 and 2000 for Ewing sarcoma patients but not for osteosarcoma. This study aimed to explore socio-economic patterning in early mortality rates for both tumours. The study analysed all 2432 osteosarcoma and 1619 Ewing sarcoma cases, aged 0-49 years, diagnosed in Great Britain 1985-2008 and followed to 31/12/2009. Logistic regression models were used to calculate risk of dying within three months, six months, one year, three years and five years after diagnosis. Associations with Townsend deprivation score and its components were examined at small-area level. Urban/rural status was studied at larger regional level. For osteosarcoma, after age adjustment, mortality at three months, six months and one year was associated with higher area unemployment, OR = 1.05 (95% CI 1.00, 1.10), OR = 1.04 (95% CI 1.01, 1.08) and OR = 1.04 (95% CI 1.02, 1.06) respectively per 1% increase in unemployment. Mortality at six months was associated with greater household non-car ownership, OR = 1.02 (95% CI 1.00, 1.03). For Ewing sarcoma, there were no significant associations between mortality and overall Townsend score, nor its components for any time period. For both tumours increasing mortality was associated with less urban and more remote rural areas. This study found that for osteosarcoma, early mortality was associated with residence at diagnosis in areas of higher unemployment, suggesting risk of early death may be socio-economically determined. For both tumours, distance from urban centres may lead to greater risk of early death. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adriatic storm surges and related cross-basin sea-level slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Međugorac, Iva; Orlić, Mirko; Janeković, Ivica; Pasarić, Zoran; Pasarić, Miroslava

2018-05-01

Storm surges pose a severe threat to the northernmost cities of the Adriatic coast, with Venice being most prone to flooding. It has been noted that some flooding episodes cause significantly different effects along the eastern and western Adriatic coasts, with indications that the difference is related to cross-basin sea-level slope. The present study aims to determine specific atmospheric conditions under which the slope develops and to explore connection with increased sea level along the two coastlines. The analysis is based on sea-level time series recorded at Venice and Bakar over the 1984-2014 interval, from which 38 most intensive storm-surge episodes were selected, and their meteorological backgrounds (ERA-Interim) were studied. The obtained sea-level extremes were grouped into three categories according to their cross-basin sea-level slope: storm surges that slope strongly westward (W type), those that slope eastward (E type) and ordinary storm surges (O type). Results show that the slope is controlled by wind action only, specifically, by the wind component towards a particular coast and by the cross-basin shear of along-basin wind. Meteorological fields were used to force an oceanographic numerical model in order to confirm the empirically established connection between the atmospheric forcing and the slope. Finally, it has been found that the intensity of storm surges along a particular Adriatic coast is determined by an interplay of sea-level slopes in the along and cross-basin directions.

Adapting NEMO for use as the UK operational storm surge forecasting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furner, Rachel; Williams, Jane; Horsburgh, Kevin; Saulter, Andrew

2016-04-01

The United Kingdom is an area vulnerable to damage due to storm surges, particularly the East Coast which suffered losses estimated at over £1 billion during the North Sea surge event of the 5th and 6th December 2013. Accurate forecasting of storm surge events for this region is crucial to enable government agencies to assess the risk of overtopping of coastal defences so they can respond appropriately, minimising risk to life and infrastructure. There has been an operational storm surge forecast service for this region since 1978, using a numerical model developed by the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) and run at the UK Met Office. This is also implemented as part of an ensemble prediction system, using perturbed atmospheric forcing to produce an ensemble surge forecast. In order to ensure efficient use of future supercomputer developments and to create synergy with existing operational coastal ocean models the Met Office and NOC have begun a joint project transitioning the storm surge forecast system from the current CS3X code base to a configuration based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO). This work involves both adapting NEMO to add functionality, such as allowing the drying out of ocean cells and changes allowing NEMO to run efficiently as a two-dimensional, barotropic model. As the ensemble surge forecast system is run with 12 members 4 times a day computational efficiency is of high importance. Upon completion this project will enable interesting scientific comparisons to be made between a NEMO based surge model and the full three-dimensional baroclinic NEMO based models currently run within the Met Office, facilitating assessment of the impact of baroclinic processes, and vertical resolution on sea surface height forecasts. Moving to a NEMO code base will also allow many future developments to be more easily used within the storm surge model due to the wide range of options which currently exist within NEMO or are planned for

The optimization of design parameters for surge relief valve for pipeline systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hyunjun; Hur, Jisung; Kim, Sanghyun

2017-06-01

Surge is an abnormal pressure which induced by rapid changes of flow rate in pipeline systems. In order to protect pipeline system from the surge pressure, various hydraulic devices have been developed. Surge-relief valve(SRV) is one of the widely applied devices to control surge due to its feasibility in application, efficiency and cost-effectiveness. SRV is designed to automatically open under abnormal pressure and discharge the flow and makes pressure of the system drop to the allowable level. The performance of the SRV is influenced by hydraulics. According to previous studies, there are several affecting factors which determine performance of the PRV such as design parameters (e.g. size of the valve), system parameters (e.g. number of the valves and location of the valve), and operation parameters (e.g. set point and operation time). Therefore, the systematic consideration for factors affecting performance of SRV is required for the proper installation of SRV in the system. In this study, methodology for finding optimum parameters of the SRV is explored through the integration of Genetic Algorithm(GA) into surge analysis.

Radiation Exposure and Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer in Early NASA Astronauts: Space for Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elgart, S. R.; Little, M. P.; Campbell, L. J.; Milder, C. M.; Shavers, M. R.; Huff, J. L.; Patel, Z. S.

2018-01-01

Of the many possible health challenges posed during extended exploratory missions to space, the effects of space radiation on cardiovascular disease and cancer are of particular concern. There are unique challenges to estimating those radiation risks; care and appropriate and rigorous methodology should be applied when considering small cohorts such as the NASA astronaut population. The objective of this work was to establish whether there is evidence for excess cardiovascular disease or cancer mortality in an early NASA astronaut cohort and determine if a correlation exists between space radiation exposure and mortality.

Catastrophe loss modelling of storm-surge flood risk in eastern England.

PubMed

Muir Wood, Robert; Drayton, Michael; Berger, Agnete; Burgess, Paul; Wright, Tom

2005-06-15

Probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling techniques, comprising a large stochastic set of potential storm-surge flood events, each assigned an annual rate of occurrence, have been employed for quantifying risk in the coastal flood plain of eastern England. Based on the tracks of the causative extratropical cyclones, historical storm-surge events are categorized into three classes, with distinct windfields and surge geographies. Extreme combinations of "tide with surge" are then generated for an extreme value distribution developed for each class. Fragility curves are used to determine the probability and magnitude of breaching relative to water levels and wave action for each section of sea defence. Based on the time-history of water levels in the surge, and the simulated configuration of breaching, flow is time-stepped through the defences and propagated into the flood plain using a 50 m horizontal-resolution digital elevation model. Based on the values and locations of the building stock in the flood plain, losses are calculated using vulnerability functions linking flood depth and flood velocity to measures of property loss. The outputs from this model for a UK insurance industry portfolio include "loss exceedence probabilities" as well as "average annualized losses", which can be employed for calculating coastal flood risk premiums in each postcode.

Multidecadal Scale Detection Time for Potentially Increasing Atlantic Storm Surges in a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Benjamin Seiyon; Haran, Murali; Keller, Klaus

2017-10-01

Storm surges are key drivers of coastal flooding, which generate considerable risks. Strategies to manage these risks can hinge on the ability to (i) project the return periods of extreme storm surges and (ii) detect potential changes in their statistical properties. There are several lines of evidence linking rising global average temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme storm surges. This conclusion is, however, subject to considerable structural uncertainty. This leads to two main questions: What are projections under various plausible statistical models? How long would it take to distinguish among these plausible statistical models? We address these questions by analyzing observed and simulated storm surge data. We find that (1) there is a positive correlation between global mean temperature rise and increasing frequencies of extreme storm surges; (2) there is considerable uncertainty underlying the strength of this relationship; and (3) if the frequency of storm surges is increasing, this increase can be detected within a multidecadal timescale (≈20 years from now).

Morning blood pressure surge and arterial stiffness in newly diagnosed hypertensive patients.

PubMed

Kıvrak, Ali; Özbiçer, Süleyman; Kalkan, Gülhan Yüksel; Gür, Mustafa

2017-06-01

We aimed to investigate the relationship between the morning blood pressure (BP) surge and arterial stiffness in patients with newly diagnosed hypertension. Three hundred and twenty four (mean age 51.7 ± 11.4 years) patients who had newly diagnosed hypertension with 24 h ambulatory BP monitoring were enrolled. Parameters of arterial stiffness, pulse wave velocity and augmentation index (Aix) were measured by applanation tonometry and aortic distensibility was calculated by echocardiography. Compared with the other groups, pulse wave velocity, day-night systolic BP (SBP) difference (p < 0.001, for all) and hs-CRP (p = 0.005) were higher in morning BP surge high group. Aortic distensibility values were significantly lower in morning BP surge high group compared to the other groups (p < 0.05, for all). Morning BP surge was found to be independently associated with pulse wave velocity (β = 0.286, p < 0.001), aortic distensibility (β= -0.384, p < 0.001) and day-night SBP difference (β = 0.229, p < 0.001) in multivariate linear regression analysis. We found independent relationship between morning BP surge and arterial stiffness which is a surrogate endpoint for cardiovascular diseases. The inverse relationship between morning BP surge and aortic distensibility and direct relation found in our study is new to the literature.

The value of wetlands in protecting southeast louisiana from hurricane storm surges.

PubMed

Barbier, Edward B; Georgiou, Ioannis Y; Enchelmeyer, Brian; Reed, Denise J

2013-01-01

The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively.

Trajectories of functional limitation in early rheumatoid arthritis and their association with mortality.

PubMed

Norton, Sam; Sacker, Amanda; Dixey, Josh; Done, John; Williams, Peter; Young, Adam

2013-11-01

This study aimed to identify subgroups with distinct trajectories of functional (HAQ) progression over 10 years following diagnosis of RA and identify baseline characteristics associated with the trajectories and their prognostic value for mortality. Between 1986 and 1998, 1460 patients with RA symptoms <2 years and prior to disease-modifying treatment (DMARDs) were recruited to an inception cohort (Early RA Study). Standard clinical, functional and laboratory assessments were performed at presentation and annually. Deaths were tracked by the National Health Service Central Register. Growth mixture modelling was used to identify distinct trajectories of HAQ score progression and survival analysis employed to compare all-cause mortality across the trajectory classes. Four HAQ score progression classes were identified: moderate increasing (46%), low stable (6%), moderate stable (28%) and high stable (20%). Only the moderate-increasing class exhibited an accelerated decline in function over normal ageing. Compared with the moderate-increasing class, individuals with high-stable HAQ scores were more likely to be female, have more severe disease and other coexistent conditions. Low-stable class patients were more likely to be male and report less pain. The high-stable class had increased risk of mortality compared with the moderate-increasing class after adjusting for potential confounding factors, whereas low-stable and moderate-stable classes were at reduced mortality risk. The effect of RA on function is set within the first few years and is affected by comorbidity. Identifying distinct groups of patients may help to target those at greater risk of poor functional outcome and mortality.

Early resuscitation intensity as a surrogate for bleeding severity and early mortality in the PRospective, Observational, Multicenter, Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) Study

PubMed Central

Rahbar, Elaheh; Fox, Erin E.; del Junco, Deborah J.; Harvin, John A.; Holcomb, John B.; Wade, Charles E.; Schreiber, Martin A.; Rahbar, Mohammad H.; Bulger, Eileen M.; Phelan, Herb A.; Brasel, Karen J.; Alarcon, Louis H.; Myers, John G.; Cohen, Mitchell J.; Muskat, Peter; Cotton, Bryan A.

2013-01-01

Background The classic definition of MT, ≥10 units red blood cells (RBCs) in 24 hours, has never been demonstrated as a valid surrogate for severe hemorrhage and can introduce survival bias. In addition, the definition fails to capture other products that the clinician may have immediately available during the initial resuscitation. Assuming that units of resuscitative fluids reflect patient illness, our objective was to identify a rate of resuscitation intensity (RI) that could serve as an early surrogate of sickness for patients with substantial bleeding post-injury. Methods Adult patients surviving at least 30 minutes post-admission and receiving ≥1 RBC within 6 hours of admission from ten US Level 1 trauma centers were enrolled in the PRospective Observational Multicenter Major Trauma Transfusion study. Total fluid units were calculated as the sum of the number of crystalloid units (1 L=1 unit), colloids (0.5 L=1 unit) and blood products (1 RBC=1 unit, 1 plasma=1 unit, 6 pack platelets=1 unit). Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were used to evaluate associations between RI and 6-hour mortality, adjusting for age, center, penetrating injury, weighted Revised Trauma Score, and Injury Severity Score. Results 1096 eligible patients received resuscitative fluids within 30 minutes, including 620 transfused with blood products. Despite varying products utilized, the total fluid RI was similar across all sites (3.2±2.5 units). Patients who received ≥4 units of any resuscitative fluid had a 6-hour mortality rate of 14.4% vs. 4.5% in patients who received <4 units. The adjusted odds ratio of 6-hour mortality for patients receiving ≥4 units within 30 minutes was 2.1 (95% Confidence Interval: 1.2–3.5). Conclusions Resuscitation with ≥4 units of any fluid was significantly associated with 6-hour mortality. This study suggests that early RI regardless of fluid type can be used as a surrogate for sickness and mortality in severely bleeding

Isoflurane reduces the ischemia reperfusion injury surge: a longitudinal study with MRI.

PubMed

Taheri, Saeid; Shunmugavel, Anandakumar; Clark, Danielle; Shi, Honglian

2014-10-24

Recent studies show neuroprotective benefits of isoflurane (ISO) administered during cerebral ischemia. However, the available studies evaluated cerebral injury only at a single time point following the intervention and thus the longitudinal effect of ISO on ischemic tissues remains to be investigated. The objective of the present study was to investigate the longitudinal effect of ISO treatment in counteracting the deleterious effect of ischemia by evoking the transcription factor, hypoxia inducible factor-1 (HIF-1), and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). Focal cerebral ischemia was induced in 70 rats by filament medial cerebral artery occlusion (MCAo) method. MCAo rats were randomly assigned to control (90 min ischemia) and MCAo+ISO (90 min ischemia+2% ISO) groups. Infarct volume, edema, intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) were measured in eight in vivo sequential MR imaging sessions for 3 weeks. Western blot analysis and immunofluorescence were used to determine the expression level of HIF-1α (the regulatable subunit of HIF-1) and VEGF proteins. ISO inhalation during ischemia significantly decreased the surge of infarct volume, edema, ICH, and reduced the mortality rate (p<0.01). ISO transiently altered the rCBF, significantly enhanced the expression of HIF-1α and VEGF, and decreased the immune cell infiltration. Locomotor dysfunction was ameliorated at a significantly faster pace, and the benefit was seen to persist up to three weeks. Treatment with ISO during ischemia limits the deadly surge in the dynamics of ischemia reperfusion injury with no observed long-term inverse effect. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uncertainties in extreme surge level estimates from observational records.

PubMed

van den Brink, H W; Können, G P; Opsteegh, J D

2005-06-15

Ensemble simulations with a total length of 7540 years are generated with a climate model, and coupled to a simple surge model to transform the wind field over the North Sea to the skew surge level at Delfzijl, The Netherlands. The 65 constructed surge records, each with a record length of 116 years, are analysed with the generalized extreme value (GEV) and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to study both the model and sample uncertainty in surge level estimates with a return period of 104 years, as derived from 116-year records. The optimal choice of the threshold, needed for an unbiased GPD estimate from peak over threshold (POT) values, cannot be determined objectively from a 100-year dataset. This fact, in combination with the sensitivity of the GPD estimate to the threshold, and its tendency towards too low estimates, leaves the application of the GEV distribution to storm-season maxima as the best approach. If the GPD analysis is applied, then the exceedance rate, lambda, chosen should not be larger than 4. The climate model hints at the existence of a second population of very intense storms. As the existence of such a second population can never be excluded from a 100-year record, the estimated 104-year wind-speed from such records has always to be interpreted as a lower limit.

Forecasting of Storm Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valenti, Elizabeth; Fitzpatrick, Patrick

2005-01-01

Increasing the accuracy of storm surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite element based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate.

Predicting the next storm surge flood

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stamey, B.; Wang, Hongfang; Koterba, M.

2007-01-01

The Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS), National Weather Services (NWS) Sterling and Wakefield, Weather Forecast Offices (WFO), and the Chesapeake Bay Observing System (CBOS) jointly developed a prototype system of a regional capability to address national problem. The system was developed to integrate high-resolution atmospheric and hydrodynamic and storm surge models, evaluate the ability of the prototype to predict land inundation in the Washington, D.C., and provide flooding results to Emergency Managers (EM) using portive. The system is a potential tool for NWS WFOs to provide support to the EMs, first in the Chesapeake Bay region and then in other coastal regions by applying similar approaches in other coastal and Great Lakes regions. The Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System (CIPS) also is building on the initial prototype to predict the combined effects of storm surge and tidal and river flow inundation in the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries.

Planning for partnerships: Maximizing surge capacity resources through service learning.

PubMed

Adams, Lavonne M; Reams, Paula K; Canclini, Sharon B

2015-01-01

Infectious disease outbreaks and natural or human-caused disasters can strain the community's surge capacity through sudden demand on healthcare activities. Collaborative partnerships between communities and schools of nursing have the potential to maximize resource availability to meet community needs following a disaster. This article explores how communities can work with schools of nursing to enhance surge capacity through systems thinking, integrated planning, and cooperative efforts.

Cold basal conditions during surges control flow of fringing Arctic ice caps in Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Samuel; Christoffersen, Poul; Todd, Joe; Palmer, Steven

2017-04-01

Fringing ice caps separated from larger ice sheets are rarely studied, yet they are an important part of earth's cryosphere, which has become the largest source of global sea-level rise. Understanding marginal ice caps is crucial for being able to predict sea-level change as they are responsible for up to 20% of Greenland's mass loss for 2003-2008. Studies of fringing ice caps can furthermore provide useful insights into processes operating on glaciers that surge. Surging has been the focus of much recent glaciological work, especially with reference to thermal evolution of polythermal glaciers in High Mountain Asia and the High Arctic. This has shown that the classic divide between hydrologically-controlled surges ('hard-bed') in Alaska and thermally-regulated ('soft-bed') surges elsewhere is less stark than previously assumed. Studying marginal ice caps can therefore be valuable in several ways. The largest fringing ice cap in Greenland is Flade Isblink. Previous work has established that this ice cap is showing a range of dynamic behaviour, including subglacial lake drainage and varied patterns of mass-balance change. In particular, a substantial surge, assumed to be caused by a version of the thermally-regulated mechanism, occurred between 1996 and 2000, making the ice cap a useful case study for investigating this process. Here we investigate the surge on Flade Isblink using the open-source, Full-Stokes model Elmer/Ice to invert for basal conditions and englacial temperatures using the adjoint method. We specifically study steady-state conditions representative of the active surge phase in 2000, and the subsequent quiescent phase, using patterns of surface velocity observed in 2000, 2005, 2008 and 2015. Under constant geometry, temperature and geothermal heat, it is shown that surging increases basal freezing rates by over 60% across an area that is twice as large as the area over which the bed freezes in the quiescent phase. The process responsible for this

Mapping hardwood mortality for the early detection of P. ramorum: an assessment of aerial surveys and object-oriented image analysis

Treesearch

Erik Haunreiter; Zhanfeng Liu; Jeff Mai; Zachary Heath; Lisa Fischer

2008-01-01

Effective monitoring and identification of areas of hardwood mortality is a critical component in the management of sudden oak death (SOD). From 2001 to 2005, aerial surveys covering 13.5 million acres in California were conducted to map and monitor hardwood mortality for the early detection of Phytophthora ramorum, the pathogen responsible for SOD....

Storm surges and coastal impacts at Mar del Plata, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiore, Mónica M. E.; D'Onofrio, Enrique E.; Pousa, Jorge L.; Schnack, Enrique J.; Bértola, Germán R.

2009-07-01

Positive storm surges (PSS) lasting for several days can raise the water level producing significant differences between the observed level and the astronomical tide. These storm events can be more severe if they coincide with a high tide or if they bracket several tidal cycles, particularly in the case of the highest astronomical tide. Besides, the abnormal sea-level elevation near the coast can cause the highest waves generated to attack the upper beach. This combination of factors can produce severe erosion, threatening sectors located along the coastline. These effects would be more serious if the storm surge height and duration increase as a result of a climatic change. The Mar del Plata (Argentina) coastline and adjacent areas are exposed to such effects. A statistical characterization of PSS based on their intensity, duration and frequency, including a surge event classification, was performed utilizing tide-gauge records over the period 1956-2005. A storm erosion potential index (SEPI) was calculated from observed levels based on hourly water level measurements. The index was related to beach profile responses to storm events. Also, a return period for extreme SEPI values was calculated. Results show an increase in the average number of positive storm surge events per decade. Considering all the events, the last decade (1996-2005) exhibits an average 7% increase compared to each one of the previous decades. A similar behavior was found for the decadal average of the heights of maximum annual positive storm surges. In this case the average height of the last two decades exceeds that of the previous decades by approximately 8 cm. The decadal average of maximum annual duration of these meteorological events shows an increase of 2 h in the last three decades. A possible explanation of the changes in frequency, height and duration of positive storm surges at Mar del Plata would seem to lie in the relative mean sea-level rise.

Tsivat Basin conduit system persists through two surges, Bering Piedmont Glacier, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fleisher, P.J.; Cadwell, D.H.; Muller, E.H.

1998-01-01

The 1993-1995 surge of Bering Glacier, Alaska, occurred in two distinct phases. Phase 1 of the surge began on the eastern sector in July, 1993 and ended in July, 1994 after a powerful outburst of subglacial meltwater into Tsivat Lake basin on the north side of Weeping Peat Island. Within days, jokulhlaup discharge built a 1.5 km2 delta of ice blocks (25-30 m) buried in outwash. By late October 1994, discharge temporarily shifted to a vent on Weeping Peat Island, where a second smaller outburst dissected the island and built two new sandar. During phase 2, which began in spring 1995 and ended within five months, continuous discharge issued from several vents along the ice front on Weeping Peat Island before returining to the Tsivat Basin. Surge related changes include a five- to six-fold increase in meltwater turbidity; the redirection of supercooled water in two ice-contact lakes; and an increase in the rate of glaciolacustrine sedimentation. US Geological Survey aerial photos by Austin Post show large ice blocks in braided channels indicating excessive subglacial discharge in a similar position adjacent to Weeping Peat Island during the 1966-1967 surge. During the subsequent three decades of retreat, the location of ice-marginal, subglacial discharge vents remained aligned on a linear trend that describes the position of a persistent subglacial conduit system. The presence of a major conduit system, possibly stabilized by subglacial bedrock topography, is suggested by: 1) high-level subglacial meltwater venting along the northern side of Weeping Peat Island during the 1966-1967 surge, 2) persistent low-level discharge between surges, and 3) the recurrence of localizing meltwater outbursts associated with both phases of the 1993-1005 surge.

The Value of Wetlands in Protecting Southeast Louisiana from Hurricane Storm Surges

PubMed Central

Barbier, Edward B.; Georgiou, Ioannis Y.; Enchelmeyer, Brian; Reed, Denise J.

2013-01-01

The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively. PMID:23536815

[Analysis of articles published in Chin J Surg since founded in 1951].

PubMed

Xia, Shuang; Li, Jing

2016-01-01

To discuss the characteristics of the articles published in Chin J Surg from 1951 to 2015. The journals and articles of Acad Surg from 1951 to 1952 and Chin J Surg from 1953 to 2015 were analyzed. The subjects, foundation, basic medical study, international cooperation of the articles were recorded. In 65 years, there were 20 090 academic articles published in Chin J Surg. The proportions of general surgery, orthopedic surgery, thoracocardiac surgery, urology surgery and neurosurgery articles were 34.08%, 17.96%, 13.09%, 11.91% and 5.85%, respectively. There were 14.83% (1 728/11 653) articles receiving foundation, and 9.42% (1 817/19 290) articles reporting basic medical study. There were 14.8% articles from international authors and 119 articles with international cooperation. From 2000 to 2003, 29 articles in original English were published. The coverage of Chin J Surg contains all the fields of surgery. It tends to publish the studies focus on clinical issues.Through reinforcing the content plan and optimizing the show form, the more Chinese surgical research achievements could be shared by the surgeons worldwide.

Forecasting of Storm-Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valenti, Elizabeth; Fitzpatrick, Patrick

2006-01-01

Increasing the accuracy of storm-surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm-surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm-surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and, most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite-element-based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm-surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm-surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate. To keep the computational load manageable, this work was conducted using only the wind stress, calculated by using historical data from Hurricane Camille, as the input condition for the model. Hurricane storm-surge simulations were performed on an

Use of historical information in extreme storm surges frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Deville, Yves; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

2013-04-01

The prevention of storm surge flood risks is critical for protection and design of coastal facilities to very low probabilities of failure. The effective protection requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a solid theoretical motivation. Relating extreme storm surges to their frequency of occurrence using probability distributions has been a common issue since 1950s. The engineer needs to determine the storm surge of a given return period, i.e., the storm surge quantile or design storm surge. Traditional methods for determining such a quantile have been generally based on data from the systematic record alone. However, the statistical extrapolation, to estimate storm surges corresponding to high return periods, is seriously contaminated by sampling and model uncertainty if data are available for a relatively limited period. This has motivated the development of approaches to enlarge the sample extreme values beyond the systematic period. The nonsystematic data occurred before the systematic period is called historical information. During the last three decades, the value of using historical information as a nonsystematic data in frequency analysis has been recognized by several authors. The basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of historical information is that a perception threshold exists and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, all exceedances of this threshold have been recorded. Historical information prior to the systematic records may arise from high-sea water marks left by extreme surges on the coastal areas. It can also be retrieved from archives, old books, earliest newspapers, damage reports, unpublished written records and interviews with local residents. A plotting position formula, to compute empirical probabilities based on systematic and historical data, is used in this communication paper. The objective of the present work is to examine the potential gain in estimation accuracy with the

Modelling the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan storm surge: Effect of waves, offshore winds, tide phase, and translation speed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilgera, P. H. T.

2015-12-01

Super Typhoon Haiyan, with wind speeds exceeding 300 km h-1 (160 knots) generated a storm surge in San Pedro Bay reaching heights of more than 6m in Tacloban City. Delft Dashboard (DDB), an open-source standalone Matlab based graphical user interface linked to the FLOW and WAVE modeling software of Deltares, was used to develop a coupled flow and wave storm surge model to understand the Typhoon Haiyan storm surge development and propagation. Various experiments were designed to determine the effect of waves, the occurrence of offshore winds prior to the surge, tidal phase, and typhoon translation speed on the surge height. Wave coupling decreased the surge height by about 0.5m probably due to energy dissipation from white capping, bottom friction, and depth-induced breaking. Offshore-directed winds before the arrival of the storm eye resulted to receding of the water level in San Pedro and Cancabato Bay, corroborated by eyewitness and tide gauge data. The experiment wherein the offshore winds were removed resulted to no water receding and a surge with a smaller and gentler surge front, pointing to the importance of the initial water level drawdown in contributing to the destructive power of the wave front. With regard to tides, the effect in Tacloban was actually neither linear nor additive to the surge, with higher surge coincident to low tides and lower surge coincident to high tides. Lastly, the model run with typhoon having a slower translation speed than Haiyan was found to generate higher surges.

Modelling the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan Storm Surge: Effect of Waves, Offshore Winds, Tide Phase, and Translation Speed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilgera, P. H. T.; Villanoy, C.; Cabrera, O.

2016-02-01

Super Typhoon Haiyan, with wind speeds exceeding 300 km h-1 (160 knots) generated a storm surge in San Pedro Bay reaching heights of more than 6m in Tacloban City. Delft Dashboard (DDB), an open-source standalone Matlab based graphical user interface linked to the FLOW and WAVE modeling software of Deltares, was used to develop a coupled flow and wave storm surge model to understand the Typhoon Haiyan storm surge development and propagation. Various experiments were designed to determine the effect of waves, the occurrence of offshore winds prior to the surge, tidal phase, and typhoon translation speed on the surge height. Wave coupling decreased the surge height by about 0.5m probably due to energy dissipation from white capping, bottom friction, and depth-induced breaking. Offshore-directed winds before the arrival of the storm eye resulted to receding of the water level in San Pedro and Cancabato Bay, corroborated by eyewitness and tide gauge data. The experiment wherein the offshore winds were removed resulted to no water receding and a surge with a smaller and gentler surge front, pointing to the importance of the initial water level drawdown in contributing to the destructive power of the wave front. With regard to tides, the effect in Tacloban was actually neither linear nor additive to the surge, with higher surge coincident to low tides and lower surge coincident to high tides. Lastly, the model run with typhoon having a slower translation speed than Haiyan was found to generate higher surges.

The “Ram Effect”: A “Non-Classical” Mechanism for Inducing LH Surges in Sheep

PubMed Central

Fabre-Nys, Claude; Chanvallon, Audrey; Dupont, Joëlle; Lardic, Lionel; Lomet, Didier; Martinet, Stéphanie; Scaramuzzi, Rex J.

2016-01-01

During spring sheep do not normally ovulate but exposure to a ram can induce ovulation. In some ewes an LH surge is induced immediately after exposure to a ram thus raising questions about the control of this precocious LH surge. Our first aim was to determine the plasma concentrations of oestradiol (E2) E2 in anoestrous ewes before and after the “ram effect” in ewes that had a “precocious” LH surge (starting within 6 hours), a “normal” surge (between 6 and 28h) and “late» surge (not detected by 56h). In another experiment we tested if a small increase in circulating E2 could induce an LH surge in anoestrus ewes. The concentration of E2 significantly was not different at the time of ram introduction among ewes with the three types of LH surge. “Precocious” LH surges were not preceded by a large increase in E2 unlike “normal” surges and small elevations of circulating E2 alone were unable to induce LH surges. These results show that the “precocious” LH surge was not the result of E2 positive feedback. Our second aim was to test if noradrenaline (NA) is involved in the LH response to the “ram effect”. Using double labelling for Fos and tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) we showed that exposure of anoestrous ewes to a ram induced a higher density of cells positive for both in the A1 nucleus and the Locus Coeruleus complex compared to unstimulated controls. Finally, the administration by retrodialysis into the preoptic area, of NA increased the proportion of ewes with an LH response to ram odor whereas treatment with the α1 antagonist Prazosin decreased the LH pulse frequency and amplitude induced by a sexually active ram. Collectively these results suggest that in anoestrous ewes NA is involved in ram-induced LH secretion as observed in other induced ovulators. PMID:27384667

Spatial distribution of erosion and deposition during a glacier surge: Brúarjökull, Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korsgaard, Niels J.; Schomacker, Anders; Benediktsson, Ívar Örn; Larsen, Nicolaj K.; Ingólfsson, Ólafur; Kjær, Kurt H.

2015-12-01

Time-series of digital elevation models (DEMs) of the forefield of the Brúarjökull surge-type glacier in Iceland were used to quantify the volume of material that was mobilized by the 1963-1964 surge. The DEMs were produced by stereophotogrammetry on aerial photographs from before the surge (1961) and after (1988 and 2003). The analysis was performed on two DEMs of Difference (DoDs), i.e., a 1961-2003 DoD documenting the impact of the surge and a 1988-2003 DoD documenting the post-surge modification of the juvenile surging glacier landsystem. Combined with a digital geomorphological map, the DoDs allow us to quantify the impact of the surge on a landsystem scale down to individual landforms. A total of 34.2 ± 11.3 × 106 m3 of material was mobilized in the 30.7-km2 study area as a result of the most recent surge event. Of these, 17.4 ± 6.6 × 106 m3 of the material were eroded and 16.8 ± 4.7 × 106 m3 were deposited. More than half of the deposited volume was ice-cored landforms. This study demonstrates that although the total mobilized mass volume is high, the net volume gain of ice and sediment deposited as landforms in the forefield caused by the surge is low. Furthermore, deposition of new dead-ice from the 1963-1964 surge constitutes as much as 64% of the volume gain in the forefield. The 1988-2003 DoD is used to quantify the melt-out of this dead-ice and other paraglacial modification of the recently deglaciated forefield of Brúarjökull.

Morning blood pressure surge: pathophysiology, clinical relevance and therapeutic aspects

PubMed Central

Bilo, Grzegorz; Grillo, Andrea; Guida, Valentina; Parati, Gianfranco

2018-01-01

Morning hours are the period of the day characterized by the highest incidence of major cardiovascular events including myocardial infarction, sudden death or stroke. They are also characterized by important neurohormonal changes, in particular, the activation of sympathetic nervous system which usually leads to a rapid increase in blood pressure (BP), known as morning blood pressure surge (MBPS). It was hypothesized that excessive MBPS may be causally involved in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular events occurring in the morning by inducing hemodynamic stress. A number of studies support an independent relationship of MBPS with organ damage, cerebrovascular complications and mortality, although some heterogeneity exists in the available evidence. This may be due to ethnic differences, methodological issues and the confounding relationship of MBPS with other features of 24-hour BP profile, such as nocturnal dipping or BP variability. Several studies are also available dealing with treatment effects on MBPS and indicating the importance of long-acting antihypertensive drugs in this regard. This paper provides an overview of pathophysiologic, methodological, prognostic and therapeutic aspects related to MBPS. PMID:29872338

Early Mortality in Adults Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMIC): A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Gupta, Amita; Nadkarni, Girish; Yang, Wei-Teng; Chandrasekhar, Aditya; Gupte, Nikhil; Bisson, Gregory P.; Hosseinipour, Mina; Gummadi, Naveen

2011-01-01

Background We systematically reviewed observational studies of early mortality post-antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) in Asia, Africa, and Central and South America, as defined by the World Bank, to summarize what is known. Methods and Findings Studies published in English between January 1996 and December 2010 were searched in Medline and EMBASE. Three independent reviewers examined studies of mortality within one year post-ART. An article was included if the study was conducted in a LMIC, participants were initiating ART in a non-clinical trial setting and were ≥15 years. Fifty studies were included; 38 (76%) from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), 5 (10%) from Asia, 2 (4%) from the Americas, and 5 (10%) were multi-regional. Median follow-up time and pre-ART CD4 cell count ranged from 3–55 months and 11–192 cells/mm3, respectively. Loss-to-follow-up, reported in 40 (80%) studies, ranged from 0.3%–27%. Overall, SSA had the highest pooled 12-month mortality probability of 0.17 (95% CI 0.11–0.24) versus 0.11 (95% CI 0.10–0.13) for Asia, and 0.07 (95% CI 0.007–0.20) for the Americas. Of 14 (28%) studies reporting cause-specific mortality, tuberculosis (TB) (5%–44%), wasting (5%–53%), advanced HIV (20%–37%), and chronic diarrhea (10%–25%) were most common. Independent factors associated with early mortality in 30 (60%) studies included: low baseline CD4 cell count, male sex, advanced World Health Organization clinical stage, low body mass index, anemia, age greater than 40 years, and pre-ART quantitative HIV RNA. Conclusions Significant heterogeneity in outcomes and in methods of reporting outcomes exist among published studies evaluating mortality in the first year after ART initiation in LMIC. Early mortality rates are highest in SSA, and opportunistic illnesses such as TB and wasting syndrome are the most common reported causes of death. Strategies addressing modifiable risk factors associated with early

Injury Pattern and Mortality of Noncompressible Torso Hemorrhage in UK Combat Casualties

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-01

body disruption (5.1%), and multiple-organ failure (4.0%). On multivariate analysis, major arterial and pulmonary hilar injury are most lethal with odds...death. Major arterial and pulmonary hilar injuries are independent predictors of mortality. (J Trauma Acute Care Surg. 2013;75: S263YS268. Copyright...physiologic or procedural indices of shock.8 Anatomic refers to those injuries to a named torso vessel, pulmonary injury (massive hemothorax or hilar

The relationship between a blunted morning surge and a reversed nocturnal blood pressure dipping or "riser" pattern.

PubMed

Fujiwara, Takeshi; Tomitani, Naoko; Sato, Keiko; Okura, Ayako; Suzuki, Noriyuki; Kario, Kazuomi

2017-11-01

The authors sought to determine the association between the blunted morning blood pressure (BP) surge and nocturnal BP dipping of the "riser" pattern in 501 patients with hypertension enrolled in the ACHIEVE-ONE (Ambulatory Blood Pressure Control and Home Blood Pressure [Morning and Evening] Lowering by the N-Channel Blocker Cilnidipine) trial. The patients' sleep-trough morning BP surge and prewaking surge were calculated and then classified according to their nocturnal systolic BP reduction pattern as extreme dippers, dippers, nondippers, and risers. The prevalence of the riser pattern was significantly higher in both the lowest sleep-trough morning BP surge decile and the prewaking surge decile (blunted surge group) compared with the remaining deciles (56.0% vs 10.4% [P<.0001] and 59.2% vs 10.2% [P<.0001], respectively). The riser pattern was a significant determinant of both blunted sleep-trough morning BP surge (odds ratio, 73.3; P<.0001) and blunted prewaking surge (odds ratio, 14.8; P<.0001). The high prevalence of the riser pattern in patients with blunted morning BP surges may account for the cardiovascular risk previously reported in such patients. ©2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Exploring mechanisms of excess mortality with early fluid resuscitation: insights from the FEAST trial

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Early rapid fluid resuscitation (boluses) in African children with severe febrile illnesses increases the 48-hour mortality by 3.3% compared with controls (no bolus). We explored the effect of boluses on 48-hour all-cause mortality by clinical presentation at enrolment, hemodynamic changes over the first hour, and on different modes of death, according to terminal clinical events. We hypothesize that boluses may cause excess deaths from neurological or respiratory events relating to fluid overload. Methods Pre-defined presentation syndromes (PS; severe acidosis or severe shock, respiratory, neurological) and predominant terminal clinical events (cardiovascular collapse, respiratory, neurological) were described by randomized arm (bolus versus control) in 3,141 severely ill febrile children with shock enrolled in the Fluid Expansion as Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial. Landmark analyses were used to compare early mortality in treatment groups, conditional on changes in shock and hypoxia parameters. Competing risks methods were used to estimate cumulative incidence curves and sub-hazard ratios to compare treatment groups in terms of terminal clinical events. Results Of 2,396 out of 3,141 (76%) classifiable participants, 1,647 (69%) had a severe metabolic acidosis or severe shock PS, 625 (26%) had a respiratory PS and 976 (41%) had a neurological PS, either alone or in combination. Mortality was greatest among children fulfilling criteria for all three PS (28% bolus, 21% control) and lowest for lone respiratory (2% bolus, 5% control) or neurological (3% bolus, 0% control) presentations. Excess mortality in bolus arms versus control was apparent for all three PS, including all their component features. By one hour, shock had resolved (responders) more frequently in bolus versus control groups (43% versus 32%, P <0.001), but excess mortality with boluses was evident in responders (relative risk 1.98, 95% confidence interval 0.94 to 4.17, P = 0.06) and 'non

Exploring mechanisms of excess mortality with early fluid resuscitation: insights from the FEAST trial.

PubMed

Maitland, Kathryn; George, Elizabeth C; Evans, Jennifer A; Kiguli, Sarah; Olupot-Olupot, Peter; Akech, Samuel O; Opoka, Robert O; Engoru, Charles; Nyeko, Richard; Mtove, George; Reyburn, Hugh; Brent, Bernadette; Nteziyaremye, Julius; Mpoya, Ayub; Prevatt, Natalie; Dambisya, Cornelius M; Semakula, Daniel; Ddungu, Ahmed; Okuuny, Vicent; Wokulira, Ronald; Timbwa, Molline; Otii, Benedict; Levin, Michael; Crawley, Jane; Babiker, Abdel G; Gibb, Diana M

2013-03-14

Early rapid fluid resuscitation (boluses) in African children with severe febrile illnesses increases the 48-hour mortality by 3.3% compared with controls (no bolus). We explored the effect of boluses on 48-hour all-cause mortality by clinical presentation at enrolment, hemodynamic changes over the first hour, and on different modes of death, according to terminal clinical events. We hypothesize that boluses may cause excess deaths from neurological or respiratory events relating to fluid overload. Pre-defined presentation syndromes (PS; severe acidosis or severe shock, respiratory, neurological) and predominant terminal clinical events (cardiovascular collapse, respiratory, neurological) were described by randomized arm (bolus versus control) in 3,141 severely ill febrile children with shock enrolled in the Fluid Expansion as Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial. Landmark analyses were used to compare early mortality in treatment groups, conditional on changes in shock and hypoxia parameters. Competing risks methods were used to estimate cumulative incidence curves and sub-hazard ratios to compare treatment groups in terms of terminal clinical events. Of 2,396 out of 3,141 (76%) classifiable participants, 1,647 (69%) had a severe metabolic acidosis or severe shock PS, 625 (26%) had a respiratory PS and 976 (41%) had a neurological PS, either alone or in combination. Mortality was greatest among children fulfilling criteria for all three PS (28% bolus, 21% control) and lowest for lone respiratory (2% bolus, 5% control) or neurological (3% bolus, 0% control) presentations. Excess mortality in bolus arms versus control was apparent for all three PS, including all their component features. By one hour, shock had resolved (responders) more frequently in bolus versus control groups (43% versus 32%, P <0.001), but excess mortality with boluses was evident in responders (relative risk 1.98, 95% confidence interval 0.94 to 4.17, P = 0.06) and 'non-responders' (relative risk 1

High conductance surge cable

DOEpatents

Murray, Matthew M.; Wilfong, Dennis H.; Lomax, Ralph E.

1998-01-01

An electrical cable for connecting transient voltage surge suppressers to ectrical power panels. A strip of electrically conductive foil defines a longitudinal axis, with a length of an electrical conductor electrically attached to the metallic foil along the longitudinal axis. The strip of electrically conductive foil and the length of an electrical conductor are covered by an insulating material. For impedance matching purposes, triangular sections can be removed from the ends of the electrically conductive foil at the time of installation.

High conductance surge cable

DOEpatents

Murray, M.M.; Wilfong, D.H.; Lomax, R.E.

1998-12-08

An electrical cable for connecting transient voltage surge suppressors to electrical power panels. A strip of electrically conductive foil defines a longitudinal axis, with a length of an electrical conductor electrically attached to the metallic foil along the longitudinal axis. The strip of electrically conductive foil and the length of an electrical conductor are covered by an insulating material. For impedance matching purposes, triangular sections can be removed from the ends of the electrically conductive foil at the time of installation. 6 figs.

Simulated storm surge effects on freshwater coastal wetland soil porewater salinity and extractable ammonium levels: Implications for marsh recovery after storm surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKee, M.; White, J. R.; Putnam-Duhon, L. A.

2016-11-01

Coastal wetland systems experience both short-term changes in salinity, such as those caused by wind-driven tides and storm surge, and long-term shifts caused by sea level rise. Salinity increases associated with storm surge are known to have significant effects on soil porewater chemistry, but there is little research on the effect of flooding length on salt penetration depth into coastal marsh soils. A simulated storm surge was imposed on intact soil columns collected from a non-vegetated mudflat and a vegetated marsh site in the Wax Lake Delta, LA. Triplicate intact cores were continuously exposed to a 35 salinity water column (practical salinity scale) for 1, 2, and 4 weeks and destructively sampled in order to measure porewater salinity and extractable NH4sbnd N at two cm depth intervals. Salinity was significantly higher in the top 8 cm for both the marsh and mudflat cores after one week of flooding. After four weeks of flooding, salinity was significantly higher in marsh and mudflat cores compared to the control (no salinity) cores throughout the profile for both sites. Extractable ammonium levels increased significantly in the marsh cores throughout the experiment, but there was only a marginally (p < 0.1) significant increase seen in the mudflat cores. Results indicate that porewater salinity levels can become significantly elevated within a coastal marsh soil in just one week. This vertical intrusion of salt can potentially negatively impact macrophytes and associated microbial communities for significantly longer term post-storm surge.

LCoE Analysis of Surge-Mode WEC

DOE Data Explorer

Bill Staby

2017-03-07

Spreadsheet which provides estimates of reductions in Levelized Cost of Energy for a surge-mode wave energy converter (WEC). This is made available via adoption of the advanced control strategies developed during this research effort.

Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, John C.; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran

Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase by a factor of 2-7 for each degree of increase in mean global temperature. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 8 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. Globalmore » mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those in RCP4.5, but sulphate injection would have to double between 2020 and 2070 to balance RCP 4.5 to nearly 10 Tg SO2 yr-1, with consequent implications for damage to stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent Generalized Extreme Value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges from 1923 and observed temperatures. The numbers of storm surge events as big as the one that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this is only marginally statistically significant. Furthermore, when sea level rise differences at 2070 between RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored in to coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5 year events and perhaps halved for 50 year surges.« less

Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

DOE PAGES

Moore, John C.; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran; ...

2015-10-26

Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase by a factor of 2-7 for each degree of increase in mean global temperature. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 8 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. Globalmore » mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those in RCP4.5, but sulphate injection would have to double between 2020 and 2070 to balance RCP 4.5 to nearly 10 Tg SO2 yr-1, with consequent implications for damage to stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent Generalized Extreme Value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges from 1923 and observed temperatures. The numbers of storm surge events as big as the one that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this is only marginally statistically significant. Furthermore, when sea level rise differences at 2070 between RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored in to coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5 year events and perhaps halved for 50 year surges.« less

Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

PubMed Central

Moore, John C.; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran; Yu, Xiaoyong; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rinke, Annette; Cui, Xuefeng; Kravitz, Ben; Lenton, Andrew; Watanabe, Shingo; Ji, Duoying

2015-01-01

Devastating floods due to Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However, the frequency of the most intense storms is likely to increase with rises in sea surface temperatures. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane Main Development Region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may mitigate hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using eight earth system model simulations of climate under the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those temperature increases in the RCP4.5. However, sulfate injection would have to double (to nearly 10 teragrams of SO2 per year) between 2020 and 2070 to balance the RCP4.5, approximately the equivalent of a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 2 y, with consequent implications for stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent generalized extreme value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges and observed temperatures since 1923. The number of storm surge events as big as the one caused by the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this reduction is only marginally statistically significant. Nevertheless, when sea level rise differences in 2070 between the RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored into coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5-y events and about halved for 50-y surges. PMID:26504210

Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering.

PubMed

Moore, John C; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran; Yu, Xiaoyong; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rinke, Annette; Cui, Xuefeng; Kravitz, Ben; Lenton, Andrew; Watanabe, Shingo; Ji, Duoying

2015-11-10

Devastating floods due to Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However, the frequency of the most intense storms is likely to increase with rises in sea surface temperatures. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane Main Development Region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may mitigate hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using eight earth system model simulations of climate under the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those temperature increases in the RCP4.5. However, sulfate injection would have to double (to nearly 10 teragrams of SO2 per year) between 2020 and 2070 to balance the RCP4.5, approximately the equivalent of a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 2 y, with consequent implications for stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent generalized extreme value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges and observed temperatures since 1923. The number of storm surge events as big as the one caused by the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this reduction is only marginally statistically significant. Nevertheless, when sea level rise differences in 2070 between the RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored into coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5-y events and about halved for 50-y surges.

Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, John C.; Grinsted, Aslak; Guo, Xiaoran

2015-10-26

Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase by a factor of 2-7 for each degree of increase in mean global temperature. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 8 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. Globalmore » mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those in RCP4.5, but sulphate injection would have to double between 2020 and 2070 to balance RCP 4.5 to nearly 10 Tg SO2 yr-1, with consequent implications for damage to stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent Generalized Extreme Value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges from 1923 and observed temperatures. The numbers of storm surge events as big as the one that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this is only marginally statistically significant. However, when sea level rise differences at 2070 between RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored in to coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5 year events and perhaps halved for 50 year surges.« less

Early warning score independently predicts adverse outcome and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

PubMed

Jones, Michael J; Neal, Christopher P; Ngu, Wee Sing; Dennison, Ashley R; Garcea, Giuseppe

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of established scoring systems with early warning scores in a large cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. In patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, Modified Glasgow Score, Ranson criteria, APACHE II scores and early warning score (EWS) were recorded for the first 72 h following admission. These variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors, between patients with mild/moderate and severe pancreatitis (based on the 2012 Atlanta Classification) and between patients with a favourable or adverse outcome. A total of 629 patients were identified. EWS was the best predictor of adverse outcome amongst all of the assessed variables (area under curve (AUC) values 0.81, 0.84 and 0.83 for days 1, 2 and 3, respectively) and was the most accurate predictor of mortality on both days 2 and 3 (AUC values of 0.88 and 0.89, respectively). Multivariable analysis revealed that an EWS ≥2 was independently associated with severity of pancreatitis, adverse outcome and mortality. This study confirms the usefulness of EWS in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. It should become the mainstay of risk stratification in patients with acute pancreatitis.

The Development of Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction System and Case Study of Typhoon Meranti in 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Terng, C. T.; Chu, C. H.

2017-12-01

Taiwan is under the threat of storm surge and associated inundation, which is located at a potentially severe storm generation zone. The use of ensemble prediction can help forecasters to know the characteristic of storm surge under the uncertainty of track and intensity. In addition, it can help the deterministic forecasting. In this study, the kernel of ensemble prediction system is based on COMCOT-SURGE (COrnell Multi-grid COupled Tsunami Model - Storm Surge). COMCOT-SURGE solves nonlinear shallow water equations in Open Ocean and coastal regions with the nested-grid scheme and adopts wet-dry-cell treatment to calculate potential inundation area. In order to consider tide-surge interaction, the global TPXO 7.1 tide model provides the tidal boundary conditions. After a series of validations and case studies, COMCOT-SURGE has become an official operating system of Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taiwan. In this study, the strongest typhoon in 2016, Typhoon Meranti, is chosen as a case study. We adopt twenty ensemble members from CWB WRF Ensemble Prediction System (CWB WEPS), which differs from parameters of microphysics, boundary layer, cumulus, and surface. From box-and-whisker results, maximum observed storm surges were located in the interval of the first and third quartile at more than 70 % gauge locations, e.g. Toucheng, Chengkung, and Jiangjyun. In conclusion, the ensemble prediction can effectively help forecasters to predict storm surge especially under the uncertainty of storm track and intensity

Early life exposure to PCB126 results in delayed mortality and growth impairment in the zebrafish larvae.

PubMed

Di Paolo, Carolina; Groh, Ksenia J; Zennegg, Markus; Vermeirssen, Etiënne L M; Murk, Albertinka J; Eggen, Rik I L; Hollert, Henner; Werner, Inge; Schirmer, Kristin

2015-12-01

The occurrence of chronic or delayed toxicity resulting from the exposure to sublethal chemical concentrations is an increasing concern in environmental risk assessment. The Fish Embryo Toxicity (FET) test with zebrafish provides a reliable prediction of acute toxicity in adult fish, but it cannot yet be applied to predict the occurrence of chronic or delayed toxicity. Identification of sublethal FET endpoints that can assist in predicting the occurrence of chronic or delayed toxicity would be advantageous. The present study characterized the occurrence of delayed toxicity in zebrafish larvae following early exposure to PCB126, previously described to cause delayed effects in the common sole. The first aim was to investigate the occurrence and temporal profiles of delayed toxicity during zebrafish larval development and compare them to those previously described for sole to evaluate the suitability of zebrafish as a model fish species for delayed toxicity assessment. The second aim was to examine the correlation between the sublethal endpoints assessed during embryonal and early larval development and the delayed effects observed during later larval development. After exposure to PCB126 (3-3000ng/L) until 5 days post fertilization (dpf), larvae were reared in clean water until 14 or 28 dpf. Mortality and sublethal morphological and behavioural endpoints were recorded daily, and growth was assessed at 28 dpf. Early life exposure to PCB126 caused delayed mortality (300 ng/L and 3000 ng/L) as well as growth impairment and delayed development (100 ng/L) during the clean water period. Effects on swim bladder inflation and cartilaginous tissues within 5 dpf were the most promising for predicting delayed mortality and sublethal effects, such as decreased standard length, delayed metamorphosis, reduced inflation of swim bladder and column malformations. The EC50 value for swim bladder inflation at 5 dpf (169 ng/L) was similar to the LC50 value at 8 dpf (188 and 202 ng/L in

Early kit mortality and growth in farmed mink are affected by litter size rather than nest climate.

PubMed

Schou, T M; Malmkvist, J

2017-09-01

We investigated the effects of nest box climate on early mink kit mortality and growth. We hypothesised that litters in warm nest boxes experience less hypothermia-induced mortality and higher growth rates during the 1st week of life. This study included data from 749, 1-year-old breeding dams with access to nesting materials. Kits were weighed on days 1 and 7, dead kits were collected daily from birth until day 7 after birth, and nest climate was measured continuously from days 1 to 6. We tested the influences of the following daily temperature (T) and humidity (H) parameters on the number of live-born kit deaths and kit growth: T mean, T min, T max, T var (fluctuation) and H mean. The nest microclimate experienced by the kits was buffered against the ambient climate, with higher temperatures and reduced climate fluctuation. Most (77.0%) live-born kit deaths in the 1st week occurred on days 0 and 1. Seven of 15 climate parameters on days 1 to 3 had significant effects on live-born kit mortality. However, conflicting effects among days, marginal effects and late effects indicated that climate was not the primary cause of kit mortality. Five of 30 climate parameters had significant effects on kit growth. Few and conflicting effects indicated that the climate effect on growth was negligible. One exception was that large nest temperature fluctuations on day 1 were associated with reduced deaths of live-born kit (P<0.001) and increased kit growth (P=0.003). Litter size affected kit vitality; larger total litter size at birth was associated with greater risks of kit death (P<0.001) and reduced growth (P<0.001). The number of living kits in litters had the opposite effect, as kits in large liveborn litters had a reduced risk of death (P<0.001) and those with large mean litter size on days 1 to 7 had increased growth (P=0.026). Nest box temperature had little effect on early kit survival and growth, which could be due to dams' additional maternal behaviour. Therefore, we

SPH Simulation of Impact of a Surge on a Wall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diwakar, Manoj Kumar; Mohapatra, Pranab Kumar; Tripathi, Shivam

2014-05-01

Structures located on the downstream of a dam are prone to impact of the surge due to dam break flow. Ramsden (1996) experimentally studied the run-up height on a vertical wall due to propagation of bore and surge on dry bed and measured their impact on the wall. Mohapatra et al. (2000) applied Navier Stokes equations to numerically study the impact of bore on vertical and inclined walls. They also obtained the evolution of surge on dry bed. In the present work, the impact of a surge wave due to dam break flow against the wall is modeled with a two-dimensional smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) model. SPH is a mesh-free method that relies on the particle view of the field problem and approximates the continuity and momentum equations on a set of particles. The method solves the strong form of Navier-Stokes equations. The governing equations are solved numerically in the vertical plane. The propagation of the surge wave, its impact and the maximum run-up on the wall located at the boundary are analyzed. Surface profile, velocity field and pressure distributions are simulated. Non-dimensional run-up height obtained from the present numerical model is 0.86 and is in good agreement with the available experimental data of Ramsden (1996) which is in the range of 0.75-0.9. Also, the simulated profile of the surge tip was comparable to the empirical equations refereed in Ramsden (1996). The model is applied to the study the maximum force and the run-up height on inclined walls with different inclinations. The results indicate that the maximum force and the run-up height on the wall increase with the increment of wall inclination. Comparison of numerical results with analytical solutions derived from shallow water equations clearly shows the breakdown of shallow water assumption during the impact. In addition to these results, the numerical simulation yields the complete velocity and pressure ?elds which may be used to design structures located in the path of a dam

A simplified real time method to forecast semi-enclosed basins storm surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasquali, D.; Di Risio, M.; De Girolamo, P.

2015-11-01

Semi-enclosed basins are often prone to storm surge events. Indeed, their meteorological exposition, the presence of large continental shelf and their shape can lead to strong sea level set-up. A real time system aimed at forecasting storm surge may be of great help to protect human activities (i.e. to forecast flooding due to storm surge events), to manage ports and to safeguard coasts safety. This paper aims at illustrating a simple method able to forecast storm surge events in semi-enclosed basins in real time. The method is based on a mixed approach in which the results obtained by means of a simplified physics based model with low computational costs are corrected by means of statistical techniques. The proposed method is applied to a point of interest located in the Northern part of the Adriatic Sea. The comparison of forecasted levels against observed values shows the satisfactory reliability of the forecasts.

Using Adaptive Mesh Refinment to Simulate Storm Surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandli, K. T.; Dawson, C.

2012-12-01

Coastal hazards related to strong storms such as hurricanes and typhoons are one of the most frequently recurring and wide spread hazards to coastal communities. Storm surges are among the most devastating effects of these storms, and their prediction and mitigation through numerical simulations is of great interest to coastal communities that need to plan for the subsequent rise in sea level during these storms. Unfortunately these simulations require a large amount of resolution in regions of interest to capture relevant effects resulting in a computational cost that may be intractable. This problem is exacerbated in situations where a large number of similar runs is needed such as in design of infrastructure or forecasting with ensembles of probable storms. One solution to address the problem of computational cost is to employ adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) algorithms. AMR functions by decomposing the computational domain into regions which may vary in resolution as time proceeds. Decomposing the domain as the flow evolves makes this class of methods effective at ensuring that computational effort is spent only where it is needed. AMR also allows for placement of computational resolution independent of user interaction and expectation of the dynamics of the flow as well as particular regions of interest such as harbors. The simulation of many different applications have only been made possible by using AMR-type algorithms, which have allowed otherwise impractical simulations to be performed for much less computational expense. Our work involves studying how storm surge simulations can be improved with AMR algorithms. We have implemented relevant storm surge physics in the GeoClaw package and tested how Hurricane Ike's surge into Galveston Bay and up the Houston Ship Channel compares to available tide gauge data. We will also discuss issues dealing with refinement criteria, optimal resolution and refinement ratios, and inundation.

Right Ventricular Outflow Tract Stenting in Tetralogy of Fallot Infants With Risk Factors for Early Primary Repair.

PubMed

Sandoval, Juan Pablo; Chaturvedi, Rajiv R; Benson, Lee; Morgan, Gareth; Van Arsdell, Glen; Honjo, Osami; Caldarone, Christopher; Lee, Kyong-Jin

2016-12-01

Tetralogy of Fallot with cyanosis requiring surgical repair in early infancy reflects poor anatomy and is associated with more clinical instability and longer hospitalization than those who can be electively repaired later. We bridged symptomatic infants with risk factors for early primary repair by right ventricular outflow tract stenting (stent). Four groups of tetralogy of Fallot with confluent central pulmonary arteries were studied: stent group (n=42), primary repair (aged <3 months) with pulmonary stenosis (early-PS group; n=44), primary repair (aged <3 months) with pulmonary atresia (early-PA group; n=49), and primary repair between 3 and 11 months of age (surg>3mo group; n=45). Stent patients had the smallest pulmonary arteries with a median (95% credible intervals) Nakata index (mm 2 /m 2 ) of 79 (66-85) compared with the early-PA 139 (129-154), early-PS 136 (121-153), and surg>3mo 167 (153-200) groups. Only stent infants required unifocalization of aortopulmonary collaterals (17%). Stent and early-PA infants had younger age and lower weight than early-PS infants. Stent infants had the most multiple comorbidities. Stenting allowed deferral of complete surgical repair to an age (6 months), weight (6.3 [5.8-7.0] kg), and Nakata index (147 [132-165]) similar to the low-risk surg>3mo group. The 3 early treatment groups had similar intensive care unit/hospital stays and high reintervention rates in the first 12 months after repair, compared with the surg>3mo group. Right ventricular outflow tract stenting of symptomatic tetralogy of Fallot with poor anatomy (small pulmonary arteries) and adverse factors (multiple comorbidities, low weight) relieves cyanosis and defers surgical repair. This allowed pulmonary arterial and somatic growth with clinical results comparable to early surgical repair in more favorable patients. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

SURGE: Smart Ultrasound Remote Guidance Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, Sean

2009-01-01

Exploration-class missions lead to longer communication delays with mission control. May not always have communication capability to stream real-time ultrasound images. SURGE explores use of a "just-in-time" learning tool, called OPEL = On-Board Proficiency Enhancer Light as an aid to a hypothetical crew medical officer working autonomously.

Effect of primary ovarian insufficiency and early natural menopause on mortality: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tao, X-Y; Zuo, A-Z; Wang, J-Q; Tao, F-B

2016-01-01

The aim of this review was to systematically evaluate the associations of all-cause, cardiovascular and all-cancer mortality with primary ovarian insufficiency (POI) and early natural menopause (ENM). Electronic databases for relevant studies were searched up to February 28, 2015. POI and ENM were usually defined as spontaneous menopause before age 40 years and at age 40-44 years, respectively. A total of nine articles were derived from seven prospective cohort studies. In all studies, age of menopause was self-reported. Our meta-analysis showed that POI women had a higher risk of death from all causes (pooled relative risk (RR) 1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.77) and ischemic heart disease (IHD) (pooled RR 1.48, 95% CI 1.02-2.16) when compared with women at normal age at natural menopause (ANM). No significant association was detected from stroke and all-cancer mortality between POI women and normal ANM women. Only a slightly higher risk of death from IHD (pooled RR 1.09, 95% CI 1.00-1.18) was found when ENM women were compared with normal ANM women. The results of our study demonstrated that POI was associated with a higher risk of IHD and all-cause mortality; ENM was only associated with a slightly higher risk of IHD mortality.

Seasonal Variation in Solar Ultra Violet Radiation and Early Mortality in Extremely Preterm Infants.

PubMed

Salas, Ariel A; Smith, Kelly A; Rodgers, Mackenzie D; Phillips, Vivien; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam

2015-11-01

Vitamin D production during pregnancy promotes fetal lung development, a major determinant of infant survival after preterm birth. Because vitamin D synthesis in humans is regulated by solar ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation, we hypothesized that seasonal variation in solar UVB doses during fetal development would be associated with variation in neonatal mortality rates. This cohort study included infants born alive with gestational age (GA) between 23 and 28 weeks gestation admitted to a neonatal unit between 1996 and 2010. Three infant cohort groups were defined according to increasing intensities of solar UVB doses at 17 and 22 weeks gestation. The primary outcome was death during the first 28 days after birth. Outcome data of 2,319 infants were analyzed. Mean birth weight was 830 ± 230 g and median gestational age was 26 weeks. Mortality rates were significantly different across groups (p = 0.04). High-intensity solar UVB doses were associated with lower mortality when compared with normal intensity solar UVB doses (hazard ratio: 0.70; 95% confidence interval: 0.54-0.91; p = 0.01). High-intensity solar UVB doses during fetal development seem to be associated with risk reduction of early mortality in preterm infants. Prospective studies are needed to validate these preliminary findings. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Air pollution in early life and adult mortality from chronic rheumatic heart disease.

PubMed

Phillips, David I W; Osmond, Clive; Williams, Martin L; Jones, Alexander

2017-08-01

Chronic rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains a globally important cause of heart disease. The reasons for the continuing high prevalence of this disease are obscure, but it may have its origins in the poor social and economic conditions with which the disease has been consistently and strongly linked. Mortality studies from the UK have suggested the importance of adverse environmental factors in early life; these studies demonstrated specific geographical associations between high rates of chest infection during infancy and subsequent RHD. They raised the possibility that early air pollution, which is known to be strongly linked with chest infection during infancy, may predispose to RHD. We related estimates of air pollution and social conditions developed by Daly in 1951-52 for 78 urban areas in England and Wales to their subsequent RHD mortality rates at ages 35-74 in men and women during 1993-2012. There were strong relationships between domestic air pollution and RHD [relative risk per standard deviation (SD) increase in pollution 1.168, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.128 to 1.210, P < 0.001). Inclusion of published data on social class, education, crowding and population density in multiple regression analyses showed that the air pollution association was independent of these; only overcrowding was separately linked with RHD. We present the first evidence of an association between air pollution in early life and RHD. Although there are several limitations to this study, the strength and consistency of the results, together with their biological plausibility, suggest a causal link. This deserves attention because it may have important consequences for the control of RHD in resource-poor countries where widespread use of biomass fuels and domestic pollution remain a problem. © The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Early Therapy Intensity Level (TIL) Predicts Mortality in Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Ziai, Wendy C; Siddiqui, Aazim A; Ullman, Natalie; Herrick, Daniel B; Yenokyan, Gayane; McBee, Nichol; Lane, Karen; Hanley, Daniel F

2015-10-01

Outcome from spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) may depend on patient-care variability. We developed as ICH-specific therapy intensity level (TIL) metric using evidence-based elements in a high severity sICH cohort. This is a cohort study of 170 patients with sICH and any intraventricular hemorrhage treated in 2 academic neuroICUs. Pre-defined quality indicators were identified based on current guidelines, scientific evidence, and likelihood of care documentation in first 72 h of hospital admission. We assessed performance on each indicator and association with discharge mortality. Significant indicators were aggregated to develop a TIL score. The predictive validity of the best fit TIL score was tested with threefold cross-validation of multivariate logistic regression models of in-hospital survival and good outcome (modified Rankin score 0-3). Median ICH score was 3; discharge mortality was 51.2%. Five/19 tested variables were significantly associated with lower discharge mortality: no DNR/withdrawal of treatment within 24 h of admission, target glucose within 4 h of high glucose, no recurrent hyperpyrexia, clinical reversal of herniation/intracranial pressure >20 mmHg within 60 min of detection, and reversal of INR (<1.4) within 2 h of first elevation. One point was given for each or if not applicable. Median TIL score was significantly higher in survivors versus non-survivors (5[1] vs. 3[1]; P < 0.001). A 4-point aggregated TIL score was most predictive of discharge survival (area under receiving operating characteristic curve 0.85, 95% CI 0.80-0.90) and good outcome (AUC 0.84) and was an independent predictor of both (survival: OR 7.10; 95% CI 3.57-14.11; P < 0.001; good outcome: OR 3.10; 95% CI 1.06-8.79; P < 0.001). A simplified TIL score using evidenced-based patient-care parameters within first 3 days of admission after sICH was significantly associated with early mortality and good outcome. The next step is prospective validation of the

A numerical study on hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation in Charleston Harbor, South Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Machuan; Xie, Lian; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.

2006-08-01

A storm surge and inundation model is configured in Charleston Harbor and its adjacent coastal region to study the harbor's response to hurricanes. The hydrodynamic component of the modeling system is based on the Princeton Ocean Model, and a scheme with multiple inundation speed options is imbedded in the model for the inundation calculation. Historic observations (Hurricane Hugo and its related storm surge and inundation) in the Charleston Harbor region indicate that among three possible inundation speeds in the model, taking Ct (gd)1/2 (Ct is a terrain-related parameter) as the inundation speed is the best choice. Choosing a different inundation speed in the model has effects not only on inundation area but also on storm surge height. A nesting technique is necessary for the model system to capture the mesoscale feature of a hurricane and meanwhile to maintain a higher horizontal resolution in the harbor region, where details of the storm surge and inundation are required. Hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation are very sensitive to storm tracks. Twelve hurricanes with different tracks are simulated to investigate how Charleston Harbor might respond to tracks that are parallel or perpendicular to the coastline or landfall at Charleston at different angles. Experiments show that large differences of storm surge and inundation may have occurred if Hurricane Hugo had approached Charleston Harbor with a slightly different angle. A hurricane's central pressure, radius of maximum wind, and translation speed have their own complicated effects on surge and inundation when the hurricane approaches the coast on different tracks. Systematic experiments are performed in order to illustrate how each of such factors, or a combination of them, may affect the storm surge height and inundation area in the Charleston Harbor region. Finally, suggestions are given on how this numerical model system may be used for hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation forecasting.

Magnitude of Morning Surge in Blood Pressure Is Associated with Sympathetic but Not Cardiac Baroreflex Sensitivity

PubMed Central

Johnson, Aaron W.; Hissen, Sarah L.; Macefield, Vaughan G.; Brown, Rachael; Taylor, Chloe E.

2016-01-01

The ability of the arterial baroreflex to regulate blood pressure may influence the magnitude of the morning surge in blood pressure (MSBP). The aim was to investigate the relationships between sympathetic and cardiac baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) and the morning surge. Twenty-four hour ambulatory blood pressure was recorded in 14 young individuals. The morning surge was defined via the pre-awakening method, which is calculated as the difference between mean blood pressure values 2 h before and 2 h after rising from sleep. The mean systolic morning surge, diastolic morning surge, and morning surge in mean arterial pressures were 15 ± 2, 13 ± 1, and 11 ± 1 mmHg, respectively. During the laboratory protocol, continuous measurements of blood pressure, heart rate, and muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) were made over a 10-min period of rest. Sympathetic BRS was quantified by plotting MSNA burst incidence against diastolic pressure (sympathetic BRSinc), and by plotting total MSNA against diastolic pressure (sympathetic BRStotal). Cardiac BRS was quantified using the sequence method. The mean values for sympathetic BRSinc, sympathetic BRStotal and cardiac BRS were −1.26 ± 0.26 bursts/100 hb/mmHg, −1.60 ± 0.37 AU/beat/mmHg, and 13.1 ± 1.5 ms/mmHg respectively. Significant relationships were identified between sympathetic BRSinc and the diastolic morning surge (r = 0.62, p = 0.02) and the morning surge in mean arterial pressure (r = 0.57, p = 0.03). Low sympathetic BRS was associated with a larger morning surge in mean arterial and diastolic blood pressure. Trends for relationships were identified between sympathetic BRStotal and the diastolic morning surge (r = 0.52, p = 0.066) and the morning surge in mean arterial pressure (r = 0.48, p = 0.095) but these did not reach significance. There were no significant relationships between cardiac BRS and the morning surge. These findings indicate that the ability of the baroreflex to buffer increases in blood

High resolution climate projection of storm surge at the Venetian coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mel, R.; Sterl, A.; Lionello, P.

2013-04-01

Climate change impact on storm surge regime is of great importance for the safety and maintenance of Venice. In this study a future storm surge scenario is evaluated using new high resolution sea level pressure and wind data recently produced by EC-Earth, an Earth System Model based on the operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The study considers an ensemble of six 5 yr long simulations of the rcp45 scenario at 0.25° resolution and compares the 2094-2098 to the 2004-2008 period. EC-Earth sea level pressure and surface wind fields are used as input for a shallow water hydrodynamic model (HYPSE) which computes sea level and barotropic currents in the Adriatic Sea. Results show that a high resolution climate model is needed for producing realistic values of storm surge statistics and confirm previous studies in that they show little sensitivity of storm surge levels to climate change. However, some climate change signals are detected, such as increased persistence of high pressure conditions, an increased frequency of windless hour, and a decreased number of moderate windstorms.

Hypergravity induced prolactin surge in female rats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Megory, E.; Oyama, J.

1985-01-01

Acute initial exposure to hypergravity (HG) was previously found to induce prolonged diestrous in rats, which was followed by return to normal estrous cycling upon more prolonged exposure to continuous HG. Bromergocryptine was found to prevent this prolonged diestrous. In this study it is found that in female rats 20 h of 3.14 G exposure (D-1 1200 h until D-2 0800 h) can induce prolactin surge at D-2 1600 h. Shorter exposure time (8 h), or exposure during a different part of the estrous cycle (19 h: from D-1 0700 h until D-2 0200 h) could not elicit this prolactin surge. Similar exposure of male rats of HG did not alter significantly their prolactin levels. It is possible that the hypothalamus of male and female rats responds differently to stimulation by HG.

Effect of early versus late or no tracheostomy on mortality and pneumonia of critically ill patients receiving mechanical ventilation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Siempos, Ilias I; Ntaidou, Theodora K; Filippidis, Filippos T; Choi, Augustine M K

2015-02-01

Delay of tracheostomy for roughly 2 weeks after translaryngeal intubation of critically ill patients is the presently recommended practice and is supported by findings from large trials. However, these trials were suboptimally powered to detect small but clinically important effects on mortality. We aimed to assess the benefit of early versus late or no tracheostomy on mortality and pneumonia in critically ill patients who need mechanical ventilation. We systematically searched PubMed, CINAHL, Embase, Web of Science, DOAJ, the Cochrane Library, references of relevant articles, scientific conference proceedings, and grey literature up to Aug 31, 2013, to identify randomised controlled trials comparing early tracheostomy (done within 1 week after translaryngeal intubation) with late (done any time after the first week of mechanical ventilation) or no tracheostomy and reporting on mortality or incidence of pneumonia in critically ill patients under mechanical ventilation. Our primary outcomes were all-cause mortality during the stay in the intensive-care unit and incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia. Mortality during the stay in the intensive-care unit was a composite endpoint of definite intensive-care-unit mortality, presumed intensive-care-unit mortality, and 28-day mortality. We calculated pooled odds ratios (OR), pooled risk ratios (RR), and 95% CIs with a random-effects model. All but complications analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. Analyses of 13 trials (2434 patients, 648 deaths) showed that all-cause mortality in the intensive-care unit was not significantly lower in patients assigned to the early versus the late or no tracheostomy group (OR 0·80, 95% CI 0·59-1·09; p=0·16). This result persisted when we considered only trials with a low risk of bias (511 deaths; OR 0·80, 95% CI 0·59-1·09; p=0·16; eight trials with 1934 patients). Incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia was lower in mechanically ventilated patients assigned

Runoff-generated debris flows: observations and modeling of surge initiation, magnitude, and frequency

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kean, Jason W.; McCoy, Scott W.; Tucker, Gregory E.; Staley, Dennis M.; Coe, Jeffrey A.

2013-01-01

Runoff during intense rainstorms plays a major role in generating debris flows in many alpine areas and burned steeplands. Yet compared to debris flow initiation from shallow landslides, the mechanics by which runoff generates a debris flow are less understood. To better understand debris flow initiation by surface water runoff, we monitored flow stage and rainfall associated with debris flows in the headwaters of two small catchments: a bedrock-dominated alpine basin in central Colorado (0.06 km2) and a recently burned area in southern California (0.01 km2). We also obtained video footage of debris flow initiation and flow dynamics from three cameras at the Colorado site. Stage observations at both sites display distinct patterns in debris flow surge characteristics relative to rainfall intensity (I). We observe small, quasiperiodic surges at low I; large, quasiperiodic surges at intermediate I; and a single large surge followed by small-amplitude fluctuations about a more steady high flow at high I. Video observations of surge formation lead us to the hypothesis that these flow patterns are controlled by upstream variations in channel slope, in which low-gradient sections act as “sediment capacitors,” temporarily storing incoming bed load transported by water flow and periodically releasing the accumulated sediment as a debris flow surge. To explore this hypothesis, we develop a simple one-dimensional morphodynamic model of a sediment capacitor that consists of a system of coupled equations for water flow, bed load transport, slope stability, and mass flow. This model reproduces the essential patterns in surge magnitude and frequency with rainfall intensity observed at the two field sites and provides a new framework for predicting the runoff threshold for debris flow initiation in a burned or alpine setting.

Early trends in serum phosphate and creatinine levels are associated with mortality following major hepatectomy.

PubMed

Herbert, Garth S; Prussing, Kara B; Simpson, Amber L; D'Angelica, Michael I; Allen, Peter J; DeMatteo, Ronald P; Jarnagin, William R; Kingham, T Peter

2015-12-01

Mortality after major hepatectomy remains high and is frequently related to post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF). Other than pre-existing liver disease and a small future liver remnant, few patient factors or early postoperative indicators identify patients at elevated risk for PHLF and mortality. Data on demographics, comorbidities, operative procedures and postoperative laboratory trends were reviewed for patients submitted to major hepatectomy (at least three Couinaud segments) for malignancy during 1998-2013. These factors were compared among patients who died within 90 days, survivors who met the 50-50 criteria and all remaining survivors. A total of 1528 patients underwent major hepatectomy during the study period. Of these, 947 had metastatic colorectal cancer and underwent resection of a median of four segments. Overall, 49 patients (3.2%) died within 90 days of surgery and 48 patients (3.1%) met the 50-50 criteria for PHLF; 30 of these patients survived 90 days. Operative blood loss was higher in patients who died within 90 days compared with survivors (1.0 l versus 0.5 l; P < 0.001). Despite equivalent perioperative resuscitation and urine output, non-survivors had higher creatinine and phosphate levels than survivors on postoperative day (PoD) 1 (1.1 mg/dl versus 0.9 mg/dl and 4.6 mg/dl versus 3.7 mg/dl, respectively; P < 0.001). Early trends in creatinine and phosphate (between the day of surgery and PoD 1) identify patients at risk for PHLF and mortality. © 2015 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association.

A synoptic and dynamical characterization of wave-train and blocking cold surge over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Tae-Won; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Deng, Yi

2014-08-01

Through an agglomerative hierarchical clustering method, cold surges over East Asia are classified into two distinct types based on the spatial pattern of the geopotential height anomalies at 300 hPa. One is the wave-train type that is associated with developing large-scale waves across the Eurasian continent. The other is the blocking type whose occurrence accompanies subarctic blocking. During the wave-train cold surge, growing baroclinic waves induce a southeastward expansion of the Siberian High and strong northerly winds over East Asia. Blocking cold surge, on the other hand, is associated with a southward expansion of the Siberian High and northeasterly winds inherent to a height dipole consisting of the subarctic blocking and the East Asian coastal trough. The blocking cold surge tends to be more intense and last longer compared to the wave-train type. The wave-train cold surge is associated with the formation of a negative upper tropospheric height anomaly southeast of Greenland approximately 12 days before the surge occurrence. Further analysis of isentropic potential vorticity reveals that this height anomaly could originate from the lower stratosphere over the North Atlantic. Cold surge of the blocking type occurs with an amplifying positive geopotential and a negative potential vorticity anomaly over the Arctic and the northern Eurasia in stratosphere. These anomalies resemble the stratospheric signature of a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. This stratospheric feature is further demonstrated by the observation that the blocking type cold surge occurs more often when the Arctic Oscillation is in its negative phase.

Dynamical Influence and Operational Impacts of an Extreme Mediterranean Cold Surge

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

over 45 cm of snowfall in Souda Bay, Crete, which significantly impacted operations at Naval Support Activity Souda Bay. The extratropical wave...cold surge event and its dependence on the upstream synoptic scale events. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Extratropical Cyclone, Souda Bay...Activity Souda Bay. The extratropical wave associated with the cold surge could be classified as a classic life-cycle 1 wave break. The wave-breaking

Role of cold surge and MJO on rainfall enhancement over indonesia during east asian winter monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fauzi, R. R.; Hidayat, R.

2018-05-01

Intensity of precipitation in Indonesia is influenced by convection and propagation of southwest wind. Objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between cold surge and the phenomenon of intra-seasonal climate variability Madden-julian Oscillation (MJO) for affecting precipitation in Indonesia. The data used for identifying the occurrence of cold surge are meridional wind speed data from the ERA-Interim. In addition, this study also used RMM1 and RMM2 index data from Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) for identifying MJO events. The results showed that during East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) in 15 years (2000-2015), there are 362 cold surge events, 186 MJO events, and 113 cold surge events were associated with MJO events. The spread of cold surge can penetrate to equator and brought mass of water vapor that causes dominant precipitation in the Indonesian Sea up to 50-75% from climatological precipitation during EAWM. The MJO convection activity that moves from west to east also increases precipitation, but the distribution of rainfall is wider than cold surge, especially in Eastern Indonesia. MJO and cold surge simultaneously can increase rainfall over 100-150% in any Indonesian region that affected by MJO and cold surge events. The mechanism of heavy rainfall is illustrated by high activity of moisture transport in areas such as Java Sea and coastal areas of Indonesia.

Early embryo mortality in natural human reproduction: What the data say

PubMed Central

Jarvis, Gavin E.

2017-01-01

How many human embryos die between fertilisation and birth under natural conditions? It is widely accepted that natural human embryo mortality is high, particularly during the first weeks after fertilisation, with total prenatal losses of 70% and higher frequently claimed. However, the first external sign of pregnancy occurs two weeks after fertilisation with a missed menstrual period, and establishing the fate of embryos before this is challenging. Calculations are additionally hampered by a lack of data on the efficiency of fertilisation under natural conditions. Four distinct sources are used to justify quantitative claims regarding embryo loss: (i) a hypothesis published by Roberts & Lowe in The Lancet  is widely cited but has no practical quantitative value; (ii) life table analyses give consistent assessments of clinical pregnancy loss, but cannot illuminate losses at earlier stages of development; (iii) studies that measure human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) reveal losses in the second week of development and beyond, but not before; and (iv) the classic studies of Hertig and Rock offer the only direct insight into the fate of human embryos from fertilisation under natural conditions. Re-examination of Hertig’s data demonstrates that his estimates for fertilisation rate and early embryo loss are highly imprecise and casts doubt on the validity of his numerical analysis. A recent re-analysis of hCG study data concluded that approximately 40-60% of embryos may be lost between fertilisation and birth, although this will vary substantially between individual women. In conclusion, natural human embryo mortality is lower than often claimed and widely accepted. Estimates for total prenatal mortality of 70% or higher are exaggerated and not supported by the available data. PMID:28580126

Numerical simulation of rotating stall and surge alleviation in axial compressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niazi, Saeid

Axial compression systems are widely used in many aerodynamic applications. However, the operability of such systems is limited at low-mass flow rates by fluid dynamic instabilities. These instabilities lead the compressor to rotating stall or surge. In some instances, a combination of rotating stall and surge, called modified surge, has also been observed. Experimental and computational methods are two approaches for investigating these adverse aerodynamic phenomena. In this study, numerical investigations have been performed to study these phenomena, and to develop control strategies for alleviation of rotating stall and surge. A three-dimensional unsteady Navier-Stokes analysis capable of modeling multistage turbomachinery components has been developed. This method uses a finite volume approach that is third order accurate in space, and first or second order in time. The scheme is implicit in time, permitting the use of large time steps. A one-equation Spalart-Allmaras model is used to model the effects of turbulence. The analysis is cast in a very general form so that a variety of configurations---centrifugal compressors and multistage compressors---may be analyzed with minor modifications to the analysis. Calculations have been done both at design and off-design conditions for an axial compressor tested at NASA Glenn Research Center. At off-design conditions the calculations show that the tip leakage flow becomes strong, and its interaction with the tip shock leads to compressor rotating stall and modified surge. Both global variations to the mass flow rate, associated with surge, and azimuthal variations in flow conditions indicative of rotating stall, were observed. It is demonstrated that these adverse phenomena may be eliminated, and stable operation restored, by the use of bleed valves located on the diffuser walls. Two types of controls were examined: open-loop and closed-loop. In the open-loop case mass is removed at a fixed, preset rate from the

Simulating storm surge inundation and damage potential within complex port facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mawdsley, Robert; French, Jon; Fujiyama, Taku; Achutan, Kamalasudhan

2017-04-01

Storm surge inundation of port facilities can cause damage to critical elements of infrastructure, significantly disrupt port operations and cause downstream impacts on vital supply chains. A tidal surge in December 2013 in the North Sea partly flooded the Port of Immingham, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. This flooding caused damage to port and rail transport infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This research aims to improve resilience to storm surges using hydrodynamic modelling coupled to an agent-based model of port operations. Using the December 2013 event to validate flood extent, depth and duration, we ran a high resolution hydrodynamic simulation using the open source Telemac 2D finite element code. The underlying Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was derived from Environment Agency LiDAR data, with ground truthing of the flood defences along the port frontage. Major infrastructure and buildings are explicitly resolved with varying degrees of permeability. Telemac2D simulations are run in parallel and take only minutes on a single 16 cpu compute node. Inundation characteristics predicted using Telemac 2D differ from a simple Geographical Information System 'bath-tub' analysis of the DEM based upon horizontal application of the maximum water level across the port topography. The hydrodynamic simulation predicts less extensive flooding and more closely matches observed flood extent. It also provides more precise depth and duration curves. Detailed spatial flood depth and duration maps were generated for a range of tide and surge scenarios coupled to mean sea-level rise projections. These inundation scenarios can then be integrated with critical asset databases and an agent-based model of port operation (MARS) that is capable of simulating storm surge disruption along wider supply chains. Port operators are able to act on information from a particular

[Prognostic factors of early 30-day mortality in elderly patients admitted to an emergency department].

PubMed

Morales Erazo, Alexander; Cardona Arango, Doris

The main aim of this study was to identify the variables related to early mortality in the elderly at the time of admission to the emergency department. Using probability sampling, the study included patients 60 years old or older of both genders who were admitted for observation to the emergency department of the University Hospital of Nariño, ¿Colombia? in 2015. Using a questionnaire designed for this study, some multidimensional features that affect the health of the elderly were collected (demographic, clinical, psychological, functional, and social variables). The patients were then followed-up for 30 days in order to determine the mortality rate during this time. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions and survival analysis were performed. Data were collected from 246 patients, with a mean age of 75.27 years and the majority female. The 30-day mortality rate was 15%. The variables most associated with death were: being female, temperature problems, initial diagnosis of neoplasia, and unable to walk independently in the emergency department. It is possible to determine the multidimensional factors present in the older patient admitted to an emergency department that could affect their 30-day mortality prognosis. and which should be intervened. Copyright © 2017 SEGG. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Impacts of land cover changes on hurricane storm surge in the lower Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denton, M.; Lawler, S.; Ferreira, C.

2013-12-01

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States with more than 150 rivers draining into the bay's tidal wetlands. Coastal wetlands and vegetation play an important role in shaping the hydrodynamics of storm surge events by retaining water and slowing the propagation of storm surge. In this way coastal wetlands act as a natural barrier to inland flooding, particularly against less intense storms. Threats to wetlands come from both land development (residential or commercial/industrial) and sea level rise. The lower region of the Chesapeake Bay near its outlet is especially vulnerable to flooding from Atlantic storm surge brought in by hurricanes, tropical storms and nor'easters (e.g., hurricanes Isabel [2003] and Sandy [2012]). This region is also intensely developed with nearly 1.7 million residents within the greater Hampton Roads metropolitan area. Anthropogenic changes to land cover in the lower bay can directly impact basin drainage and storm surge propagation with impacts reaching beyond the immediate coastal zone to affect flooding in inland areas. While construction of seawall barriers around population centers may provide storm surge protection to a specifically defined area, these barriers deflect storm surge rather than attenuate it, underscoring the importance of wetlands. To analyze these impacts a framework was developed combining numerical simulations with a detailed hydrodynamic characterization of flow through coastal wetland areas. Storm surges were calculated using a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC) coupled to a wave model (SWAN) forced by an asymmetric hurricane vortex model using the FEMA region 3 unstructured mesh (2.3 million nodes) under a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. Multiple model simulations were performed using historical hurricanes data and hypothetical storms to compare the predicted storm surge inundation with various levels of wetland reduction and/or beach hardening. These data were combined and overlaid

Mud aprons in front of Svalbard surge moraines: Evidence of subglacial deforming layers or proglacial glaciotectonics?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristensen, Lene; Benn, Douglas I.; Hormes, Anne; Ottesen, Dag

2009-10-01

Large debris-flow units commonly occur on the distal sides of subaqueous end moraines deposited by surges of Svalbard tidewater glaciers, but have rarely been described in terrestrial settings. Some researchers have argued that these kinds of debris flows reflect processes unique to the subaqueous environment, such as the extrusion of subglacial deforming layers or extensive failure of oversteepened moraine fronts. In this paper, we describe terrestrial and subaqueous parts of a single late Holocene moraine system deposited by a major surge of the tidewater glacier Paulabreen in west Spitsbergen. The ice-marginal landforms on land closely resemble the corresponding landforms on the seabed as evidenced by geomorphic mapping and geophysical profiles from both environments. Both onland and offshore, extensive areas of hummocky moraine occur on the proximal side of the maximum glacier position, and large mud aprons (interpreted as debris flows) occur on the distal side. We show that the debris-flow sediments were pushed in front of the advancing glacier as a continuously failing, mobile push moraine. We propose that the mud aprons are end members of a proglacial landforms continuum that has thrust-block moraines as the opposite end member. Two clusters of dates (~ 8000 YBP and ~ 700 YBP) have previously been interpreted to indicate two separate surges responsible for the moraine formation. New dates suggest that the early cluster indicates a local extinction of the abounded species Chlamys islandica. Other changes corresponding to the widespread 8.2 ka event within the fjord, may suggest that the extinction of the C. islandica corresponds to that time.

Impacts of Storm Surge Mitigation Strategies on Aboveground Storage Tank Chemical Spill Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Do, C.; Bass, B. J.; Bernier, C.; Samii, A.; Dawson, C.; Bedient, P. B.

2017-12-01

The Houston Ship Channel (HSC), located in the hurricane-prone Houston-Galveston region of the upper Texas Coast, is one of the busiest waterways in the United States and is home to one of the largest petrochemical complexes in the world. Due to the proximity of the HSC to Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, chemical spills resulting from storm surge damage to aboveground storage tanks (ASTs) pose serious threats to the environment, residential communities, and national/international markets whose activities in the HSC generate billions of dollars annually. In an effort to develop a comprehensive storm surge mitigation strategy for Galveston Bay and its constituents, Rice University's Severe Storm Prediction, Education, and Evacuation from Disasters Center proposed two structural storm surge mitigation concepts, the Mid Bay Structure (MBS) and the Lower Bay Structure (LBS) as components of the Houston-Galveston Area Protection System (H-GAPS) project. The MBS consists of levees along the HSC and a navigational gate across the channel, and the LBS consists of a navigation gate and environmental gates across Bolivar Road. The impacts of these two barrier systems on the fate of AST chemical spills in the HSC have previously been unknown. This study applies the coupled 2D SWAN+ADCIRC model to simulate hurricane storm surge circulation within the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay due to a synthetic storm which results in approximately 250-year surge levels in Galveston Bay. The SWAN+ADCIRC model is run using high-resolution computational meshes that incorporate the MBS and LBS scenarios, separately. The resulting wind and water velocities are then fed into a Lagrangian particle transport model to simulate the spill trajectories of the ASTs most likely to fail during the 250-year proxy storm. Results from this study illustrate how each storm surge mitigation strategy impacts the transport of chemical spills (modeled as Lagrangian particles) during storm surge as

Cohort-specific trends in stroke mortality in seven European countries were related to infant mortality rates.

PubMed

Amiri, M; Kunst, A E; Janssen, F; Mackenbach, J P

2006-12-01

To assess, in a population-based study, whether secular trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in seven European countries were correlated with past trends in infant mortality rate (IMR) in these countries. Data on ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke mortality in 1950-1999 in the Netherlands, England & Wales, France, and four Nordic countries were analyzed. We used Poisson regression to describe trends in mortality according to birth cohort, for the cohorts born between 1860 and 1939. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to determine associations between IMR and IHD, or stroke mortality. IHD mortality increased for successive cohorts up to 1900, and then started to decline. Stroke mortality levels were virtually stable among birth cohorts up to 1880, but declined rapidly among later cohorts. A strong positive association was found between cohort-specific IMR levels and stroke mortality rates. There were no strong cohort-wise associations between IMR and IHD mortality. These results support other studies in suggesting that living conditions in early childhood may influence population levels of stroke mortality. Future studies should determine the contribution of specific early life factors to the mortality decline in IHD and especially stroke.

Reliability Effects of Surge Current Testing of Solid Tantalum Capacitors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teverovsky, Alexander

2007-01-01

Solid tantalum capacitors are widely used in space applications to filter low-frequency ripple currents in power supply circuits and stabilize DC voltages in the system. Tantalum capacitors manufactured per military specifications (MIL-PRF-55365) are established reliability components and have less than 0.001% of failures per 1000 hours (the failure rate is less than 10 FIT) for grades D or S, thus positioning these parts among electronic components with the highest reliability characteristics. Still, failures of tantalum capacitors do happen and when it occurs it might have catastrophic consequences for the system. This is due to a short-circuit failure mode, which might be damaging to a power supply, and also to the capability of tantalum capacitors with manganese cathodes to self-ignite when a failure occurs in low-impedance applications. During such a failure, a substantial amount of energy is released by exothermic reaction of the tantalum pellet with oxygen generated by the overheated manganese oxide cathode, resulting not only in destruction of the part, but also in damage of the board and surrounding components. A specific feature of tantalum capacitors, compared to ceramic parts, is a relatively large value of capacitance, which in contemporary low-size chip capacitors reaches dozens and hundreds of microfarads. This might result in so-called surge current or turn-on failures in the parts when the board is first powered up. Such a failure, which is considered as the most prevalent type of failures in tantalum capacitors [I], is due to fast changes of the voltage in the circuit, dV/dt, producing high surge current spikes, I(sub sp) = Cx(dV/dt), when current in the circuit is unrestricted. These spikes can reach hundreds of amperes and cause catastrophic failures in the system. The mechanism of surge current failures has not been understood completely yet, and different hypotheses were discussed in relevant literature. These include a sustained scintillation

Introduction on the operational storm surge forecasting system in Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Jae-Il; Park, Kwang-Soon; Choi, Jung-Woon; Lee, Jong-Chan; Heo, Ki-Young; Kim, Sang-Ik

2017-04-01

During last more than 50 years, 258 typhoons passed and affected the Korean peninsula in terms of high winds, storm surges and extreme waves. In this study we explored the performance of the operational storm surge forecasting system in the Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS) with 8 typhoons from 2010 to 2016. The operation storm surge forecasting system for the typhoon in KOOS is based on 2D depth averaged model with tides and CE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) wind model. Two key parameters of CE wind model, the locations of typhoon center and its central atmospheric pressure are based from Korea Meteorological administrative (KMA)'s typhoon information provided from 1 day to 3 hour intervals with the approach of typhoon through the KMA's web-site. For 8 typhoons cases, the overall errors, other performances and analysis such as peak time and surge duration are presented in each case. The most important factor in the storm surge errors in the operational forecasting system is the accuracy of typhoon passage prediction.

Recycle dynamics during centrifugal compressor ESD, start-up and surge control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Botros, K.K.; Jones, B.J.; Richards, D.J.

1996-12-31

Recycle systems are important components in the operation of centrifugal compressor stations. They are essential during a start-up operation, for surge protection and for emergency shutdown (ESD). These operations are inherently dynamic where interactions between equipment, control and gas flow occur in a complex manner with the associated risk of compressor surge. Of particular importance are the effects or recycle system capacity, the recycle valve characteristics, check valve dynamic behavior, piping geometry and capacitance around the compressor unit, and the performance characteristics of the centrifugal compressor itself. This paper presents numerical results of the effects of some of these parametersmore » on surge control, ESD and unit startup. These parameters are: (1) The effects of damping the surge control flow signal in an attempt to suppress the signal noise, on the integrity of the surge control system; (2) The effects of recycle valve characteristics, stroke time and valve capacity on ESD; (3) The effects of recycle line size on ESD; and (4) The effects of the recycle valve closing time (or rate) on the startup operation, with the intent of shortening this time to minimum for environmental reasons. Results were obtained from the solution of the pertinent dynamic equations describing the gas and equipment dynamics which has been verified against field and laboratory measurements. The samples presented in this paper were applied to a 24 MW natural gas compressor station on the NOVA Gas Transmission system, and to a scale-down laboratory model. Influence of other parameters from this investigation were published elsewhere and are cited in the reference section.« less

Blind, olfactory bulbectomized female rats do not have daily luteinizing hormone surges.

PubMed

Pieper, D R; Mortiere, M R

1985-03-15

Previous studies from other laboratories have shown that female hamsters on short photoperiod become acyclic and have daily LH surges. These effects are eliminated if the animals are pinealectomized (PX) before being placed on the short photoperiod. Reiter and colleagues have shown that pre-pubertally blinded (BL) and olfactory bulbectomized (BX) female rats also have irregular estrous cycles, and this effect is also eliminated by PX [Endocr. Rev., 1 (1983) 109]. The main question addressed by the present study was whether the BL + BX rats also have daily LH surges. Twenty-five-day-old female Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into 5 groups: LD 14:10 sham (control); BL + BX; BL + BX + PX; LD 6:18 sham; and LD 6:18 BX. Ten weeks following surgery, all animals were sampled (0.5 ml) every 5 h for 2 days from an indwelling atrial catheter. Daily vaginal smears indicated that the BL + BX group were in estrus much less frequently than controls (15.8 +/- 1.8 vs 27.3 +/- 1.5% of days cornified cells, 10 rats/group smeared for more than 23 days each) and in general had longer, irregular cycles. The other 3 groups all had smear patterns similar to controls. All 5 groups had LH surges on the day of proestrus (greater than 200 ng/ml maximum value), but no group had LH surges on 2 sequential days or an LH surge on any other day of the cycle.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Brief communication: The Khurdopin glacier surge revisited - extreme flow velocities and formation of a dammed lake in 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steiner, Jakob F.; Kraaijenbrink, Philip D. A.; Jiduc, Sergiu G.; Immerzeel, Walter W.

2018-01-01

Glacier surges occur regularly in the Karakoram, but the driving mechanisms, their frequency and its relation to a changing climate remain unclear. In this study, we use digital elevation models and Landsat imagery in combination with high-resolution imagery from the Planet satellite constellation to quantify surface elevation changes and flow velocities during a glacier surge of the Khurdopin Glacier in 2017. Results reveal that an accumulation of ice volume above a clearly defined steep section of the glacier tongue since the last surge in 1999 eventually led to a rapid surge in May 2017 peaking with velocities above 5000 m a-1, which were among the fastest rates globally for a mountain glacier. Our data reveal that velocities on the lower tongue increase steadily during a 4-year build-up phase prior to the actual surge only to then rapidly peak and decrease again within a few months, which confirms earlier observations with a higher frequency of available velocity data. The surge return period between the reported surges remains relatively constant at ca. 20 years. We show the potential of a combination of repeat Planet and ASTER imagery to (a) capture peak surge velocities that are easily missed by less frequent Landsat imagery, (b) observe surface changes that indicate potential drivers of a surge and (c) monitor hazards associated with a surge. At Khurdopin specifically, we observe that the surging glacier blocks the river in the valley and causes a lake to form, which may grow in subsequent years and could pose threats to downstream settlements and infrastructure in the case of a sudden breach.

The analysis of dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, F.; Westra, S.

2012-12-01

Flooding in coastal catchments can be caused by runoff generated by an extreme rainfall event, elevated sea levels due to an extreme storm surge event, or the combination of both processes occurring simultaneously or in close succession. Dependence in extreme rainfall and storm surge arises because common meteorological forcings often drive both variables; for example, cyclonic systems may produce extreme rainfall, strong onshore winds and an inverse barometric effect simultaneously, which the former factor influencing catchment discharge and the latter two factors influencing storm surge. Nevertheless there is also the possibility that only one of the variables is extreme at any given time, so that the dependence between rainfall and storm surge is not perfect. Quantification of the strength of dependence between these processes is critical in evaluating the magnitude of flood risk in the coastal zone. This may become more important in the future as the majority of the coastal areas are threatened by the sea level rise due to the climate change. This research uses the most comprehensive record of rainfall and storm surge along the coastline of Australia collected to-date to investigate the strength of dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline. A bivariate logistic threshold-excess model was employed to this end to carry out the dependence analysis. The strength of the estimated dependence is then evaluated as a function of several factors including: the distance between the tidal gauge and the rain gauge; the lag between the extreme precipitation event and extreme surge event; and the duration of the maximum storm burst. The results show that the dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline is statistically significant, although some locations clearly exhibit stronger dependence than others. We hypothesize that this is due to a combination of large-scale meteorological effects as

Storm Surge Modeling of Typhoon Haiyan at the Naval Oceanographic Office Using Delft3D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilligan, M. J.; Lovering, J. L.

2016-02-01

The Naval Oceanographic Office provides estimates of the rise in sea level along the coast due to storm surge associated with tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes. Storm surge modeling and prediction helps the US Navy by providing a threat assessment tool to help protect Navy assets and provide support for humanitarian assistance/disaster relief efforts. Recent advancements in our modeling capabilities include the use of the Delft3D modeling suite as part of a Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) developed Coastal Surge Inundation Prediction System (CSIPS). Model simulations were performed on Typhoon Haiyan, which made landfall in the Philippines in November 2013. Comparisons of model simulations using forecast and hindcast track data highlight the importance of accurate storm track information for storm surge predictions. Model runs using the forecast track prediction and hindcast track information give maximum storm surge elevations of 4 meters and 6.1 meters, respectively. Model results for the hindcast simulation were compared with data published by the JSCE-PICE Joint survey for locations in San Pedro Bay (SPB) and on the Eastern Samar Peninsula (ESP). In SPB, where wind-induced set-up predominates, the model run using the forecast track predicted surge within 2 meters in 38% of survey locations and within 3 meters in 59% of the locations. When the hindcast track was used, the model predicted within 2 meters in 77% of the locations and within 3 meters in 95% of the locations. The model was unable to predict the high surge reported along the ESP produced by infragravity wave-induced set-up, which is not simulated in the model. Additional modeling capabilities incorporating infragravity waves are required to predict storm surge accurately along open coasts with steep bathymetric slopes, such as those seen in island arcs.

The Effect of Coastal Development on Storm Surge Flooding in Biscayne Bay, Florida, USA (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; Liu, H.; Li, Y.

2013-12-01

Barrier islands and associated bays along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are a favorite place for both living and visiting. Many of them are vulnerable to storm surge flooding because of low elevations and constantly being subjected to the impacts of storms. The population increase and urban development along the barrier coast have altered the shoreline configuration, resulting in a dramatic change in the coastal flooding pattern in some areas. Here we present such a case based on numerical simulations of storm surge flooding caused by the1926 hurricane in the densely populated area surrounding Biscayne Bay in Miami, Florida. The construction of harbor and navigation channels, and the development of real estate and the roads connecting islands along Biscayne Bay have changed the geometry of Biscayne Bay since 1910s. Storm surge simulations show that the Port of Miami and Dodge Island constructed by human after 1950 play an important role in changing storm surge inundation pattern along Biscayne Bay. Dodge Island enhances storm surge and increases inundation in the area south of the island, especially at the mouth of Miami River (Downtown of Miami), and reduces storm surge flooding in the area north of the island, especially in Miami Beach. If the Hurricane Miami of 1926 happened today, the flooding area would be reduced by 55% and 20% in the Miami Beach and North Miami areas, respectively. Consequently, it would prevent 400 million of property and 10 thousand people from surge flooding according to 2010 U.S census and 2007 property tax data. Meanwhile, storm water would penetrate further inland south of Dodge Island and increase the flooding area by 25% in the Miami River and Downtown Miami areas. As a result, 200 million of property and five thousand people would be impacted by storm surge.

Mortality Dynamics of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Immatures in Maize.

PubMed

Varella, Andrea Corrêa; Menezes-Netto, Alexandre Carlos; Alonso, Juliana Duarte de Souza; Caixeta, Daniel Ferreira; Peterson, Robert K D; Fernandes, Odair Aparecido

2015-01-01

We characterized the dynamics of mortality factors affecting immature developmental stages of the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). Multiple decrement life tables for egg and early larval stages of S. frugiperda in maize (Zea mays L.) fields were developed with and without augmentative releases of Telenomus remus Nixon (Hymenoptera: Platygastridae) from 2009 to 2011. Total egg mortality ranged from 73 to 81% and the greatest egg mortality was due to inviability, dislodgement, and predation. Parasitoids did not cause significant mortality in egg or early larval stages and the releases of T. remus did not increase egg mortality. Greater than 95% of early larvae died from predation, drowning, and dislodgment by rainfall. Total mortality due to these factors was largely irreplaceable. Results indicate that a greater effect in reducing generational survival may be achieved by adding mortality to the early larval stage of S. frugiperda.

Mortality Dynamics of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Immatures in Maize

PubMed Central

Varella, Andrea Corrêa; Menezes-Netto, Alexandre Carlos; Alonso, Juliana Duarte de Souza; Caixeta, Daniel Ferreira; Peterson, Robert K. D.; Fernandes, Odair Aparecido

2015-01-01

We characterized the dynamics of mortality factors affecting immature developmental stages of the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). Multiple decrement life tables for egg and early larval stages of S. frugiperda in maize (Zea mays L.) fields were developed with and without augmentative releases of Telenomus remus Nixon (Hymenoptera: Platygastridae) from 2009 to 2011. Total egg mortality ranged from 73 to 81% and the greatest egg mortality was due to inviability, dislodgement, and predation. Parasitoids did not cause significant mortality in egg or early larval stages and the releases of T. remus did not increase egg mortality. Greater than 95% of early larvae died from predation, drowning, and dislodgment by rainfall. Total mortality due to these factors was largely irreplaceable. Results indicate that a greater effect in reducing generational survival may be achieved by adding mortality to the early larval stage of S. frugiperda. PMID:26098422

The art and science of surge: experience from Israel and the U.S. military.

PubMed

Tadmor, Boaz; McManus, John; Koenig, Kristi L

2006-11-01

In a disaster or mass casualty incident, health care resources may be exceeded and systems may be challenged by unusual requirements. These resources may include pharmaceuticals, supplies, and equipment as well as certain types of academic and administrative expertise. New agencies and decision makers may need to work together in an unfamiliar environment. Furthermore, large numbers of casualties needing treatment, newer therapies required to care for these casualties, and increased workforce and space available for these casualties all contribute to what is often referred to as "surge." Surge capacity in emergency care can be described in technical, scientific terms that are measured by numbers and benchmarks (e.g., beds, patients, and medications) or can take on a more conceptual and abstract form (e.g., decisions, authority, and responsibility). The former may be referred to as the "science" of surge, whereas the latter, an equal if not more important component of surge systems that is more conceptual and abstract, can be considered the "art" of surge. The experiences from Israel and the U.S. military may serve to educate colleagues who may be required to respond or react to an event that taxes the current health care system. This report presents concrete examples of surge capacity strategies used by both Israel and the U.S. military and provides solutions that may be applied to other health care systems when faced with similar situations.

Modeling and simulation of storm surge on Staten Island to understand inundation mitigation strategies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kress, Michael E.; Benimoff, Alan I.; Fritz, William J.; Thatcher, Cindy A.; Blanton, Brian O.; Dzedzits, Eugene

2016-01-01

Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29, 2012, near Brigantine, New Jersey, and had a transformative impact on Staten Island and the New York Metropolitan area. Of the 43 New York City fatalities, 23 occurred on Staten Island. The borough, with a population of approximately 500,000, experienced some of the most devastating impacts of the storm. Since Hurricane Sandy, protective dunes have been constructed on the southeast shore of Staten Island. ADCIRC+SWAN model simulations run on The City University of New York's Cray XE6M, housed at the College of Staten Island, using updated topographic data show that the coast of Staten Island is still susceptible to tidal surge similar to those generated by Hurricane Sandy. Sandy hindcast simulations of storm surges focusing on Staten Island are in good agreement with observed storm tide measurements. Model results calculated from fine-scaled and coarse-scaled computational grids demonstrate that finer grids better resolve small differences in the topography of critical hydraulic control structures, which affect storm surge inundation levels. The storm surge simulations, based on post-storm topography obtained from high-resolution lidar, provide much-needed information to understand Staten Island's changing vulnerability to storm surge inundation. The results of fine-scale storm surge simulations can be used to inform efforts to improve resiliency to future storms. For example, protective barriers contain planned gaps in the dunes to provide for beach access that may inadvertently increase the vulnerability of the area.

Spatio-temporal variations in storm surges along the North Atlantic coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcos, Marta; Woodworth, Philip

2017-04-01

Extreme sea levels along the coasts of the North Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico have been investigated using hourly tide gauge records compiled in the recently released GESLA-2 data set (www.gesla.org). These regions are among the most densely monitored coasts worldwide, with more than 300 high frequency quality-controlled tide gauge time series available. Here we estimate the storm surge component of extreme sea levels using both tidal residuals and skew surges, for which we explore the spatial and temporal coherency of their intensities, duration and frequency. We quantify the relationship of extremes with dominant large scale climate patterns and discuss the impact of mean sea level changes. Finally, we test the assumption of stationarity of the probability of extreme occurrence and to which extent it holds when mean sea level changes are considered in combination with storm surges.

Towards improved storm surge models in the northern Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krien, Y.; Testut, L.; Islam, A. K. M. S.; Bertin, X.; Durand, F.; Mayet, C.; Tazkia, A. R.; Becker, M.; Calmant, S.; Papa, F.; Ballu, V.; Shum, C. K.; Khan, Z. H.

2017-03-01

The northern Bay of Bengal is home to some of the deadliest cyclones recorded during the last decades. Storm surge models developed for this region significantly improved in recent years, but they still fail to predict patterns of coastal flooding with sufficient accuracy. In the present paper, we make use of a state-of-the art numerical modeling system with improved bathymetric and topographic data to identify the strengths, weaknesses, and to suggest areas for improvement of current storm surge models in this area. The new model is found to perform relatively well in reproducing waves characteristics and maximum water levels for the two extreme cyclones studied here: Phailin (2013) and Sidr (2007). The wave setup turns out to be small compared to the wind-driven surge, although it still plays a significant role for inland flooding. Relatively large tide-surge interactions mainly due to shallow water effects are also evidenced by the model. These findings plead in favor of further efforts to improve the representation of the bathymetry, especially in the nearshore area, and the implementation of models including tides and radiation stresses explicitly. The main limit of the model is its inability to predict the detailed patterns of coastal flooding satisfactorily. The reason lies mainly in the fact that topographic data also need to be further improved. In particular, a good knowledge of embankments characteristics (crest elevation and their condition) is found to be of primary importance to represent inland flooding correctly. Public authorities should take urgent action to ensure that better data are available to the scientific community, so that state-of-the-art storm surge models reaching a sufficiently high level of confidence can be used for emergency preparedness and to implement mitigation strategies in the northern Bay of Bengal.

Involvement of salsolinol in the suckling-induced oxytocin surge in sheep.

PubMed

Górski, K; Misztal, T; Marciniak, E; Zielińska-Górska, M K; Fülöp, F; Romanowicz, K

2017-04-01

During lactation, the main surge of oxytocin is induced by a suckling stimulus. Previous studies have shown that salsolinol (1-methyl-6,7-dihydroxy-1,2,3,4-tetrahydroisoquinoline), a dopamine-derived compound, stimulates both the synthesis and the release of oxytocin in lactating sheep. The objective of the present study was to verify the hypothesis that salsolinol is involved in the mechanism that generates the oxytocin surge that occurs during suckling. Thus, a structural analogue of salsolinol, 1-methyl-3,4-dihydroisoquinoline (1MeDIQ), known to antagonize some of its actions, was infused into the third ventricle of the brain of lactating sheep nursing their offspring. Serial 30-min infusion of 1MeDIQ (4 × 60 μg/60 μL) or vehicle were administered at 30-min interval from 10 AM to 2 PM. The experimental period in every ewe consisted of a nonsuckling period (10 AM-12 PM) and a suckling period (12 PM-2 PM). Blood samples were collected every 10 min, to measure plasma oxytocin concentration by RIA. In control sheep, oxytocin surges of high amplitude were observed during the suckling period. The oxytocin surges induced by suckling were significantly (P < 0.01) diminished in sheep receiving 1MeDIQ infusions as compared to those that received control infusions. However, no significant effect of 1MeDIQ was observed on basal oxytocin release, before suckling. Furthermore, oxytocin release, as measured by the area under the hormone response curve (AUC), was significantly decreased by the administration of 1MeDIQ during the suckling period. This study shows that elimination of the effect of salsolinol within the central nervous system of lactating sheep attenuates the oxytocin surge induced by suckling. Therefore, salsolinol may be an important factor in the oxytocin-stimulating pathway in lactating mammals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early Standard Electroencephalogram Abnormalities Predict Mortality in Septic Intensive Care Unit Patients.

PubMed

Azabou, Eric; Magalhaes, Eric; Braconnier, Antoine; Yahiaoui, Lyria; Moneger, Guy; Heming, Nicholas; Annane, Djillali; Mantz, Jean; Chrétien, Fabrice; Durand, Marie-Christine; Lofaso, Frédéric; Porcher, Raphael; Sharshar, Tarek

2015-01-01

Sepsis is associated with increased mortality, delirium and long-term cognitive impairment in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Electroencephalogram (EEG) abnormalities occurring at the acute stage of sepsis may correlate with severity of brain dysfunction. Predictive value of early standard EEG abnormalities for mortality in ICU septic patients remains to be assessed. In this prospective, single center, observational study, standard EEG was performed, analyzed and classified according to both Synek and Young EEG scales, in consecutive patients acutely admitted in ICU for sepsis. Delirium, coma and the level of sedation were assessed at the time of EEG recording; and duration of sedation, occurrence of in-ICU delirium or death were assessed during follow-up. Adjusted analyses were carried out using multiple logistic regression. One hundred ten patients were included, mean age 63.8 (±18.1) years, median SAPS-II score 38 (29-55). At the time of EEG recording, 46 patients (42%) were sedated and 22 (20%) suffered from delirium. Overall, 54 patients (49%) developed delirium, of which 32 (29%) in the days after EEG recording. 23 (21%) patients died in the ICU. Absence of EEG reactivity was observed in 27 patients (25%), periodic discharges (PDs) in 21 (19%) and electrographic seizures (ESZ) in 17 (15%). ICU mortality was independently associated with a delta-predominant background (OR: 3.36; 95% CI [1.08 to 10.4]), absence of EEG reactivity (OR: 4.44; 95% CI [1.37-14.3], PDs (OR: 3.24; 95% CI [1.03 to 10.2]), Synek grade ≥ 3 (OR: 5.35; 95% CI [1.66-17.2]) and Young grade > 1 (OR: 3.44; 95% CI [1.09-10.8]) after adjustment to Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS-II) at admission and level of sedation. Delirium at the time of EEG was associated with ESZ in non-sedated patients (32% vs 10%, p = 0.037); with Synek grade ≥ 3 (36% vs 7%, p< 0.05) and Young grade > 1 (36% vs 17%, p< 0.001). Occurrence of delirium in the days after EEG was associated with a delta

A Prospective Study of PTSD and Early-Age Heart Disease Mortality Among Vietnam Veterans: Implications for Surveillance and Prevention

PubMed Central

Boscarino, Joseph A.

2013-01-01

Objective To examine prospectively early-age heart disease (HD) among a national random sample of 4328 male Vietnam veterans, who did not have HD at baseline in 1985. Studies have suggested that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) may result in cardiovascular disease. However, many past studies had important methodological limitations to their designs. Method Using Cox regressions, we assessed PTSD, age, race, intelligence, family history, obesity, smoking, alcohol abuse, antisocial personality, and depression in predicting HD mortality at follow-up in December 31, 2000. The men were <65 years old at follow-up. Results Using two PTSD measures, a Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 3rd Edition (DSM-III) measure (D-PTSD) and one developed by Keane (K-PTSD), we found that among Vietnam theater and era veterans combined (era veterans had no Vietnam service), having PTSD was associated with HD mortality for D-PTSD (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.25, p = .045) and approached significance for K-PTSD (HR = 2.16, p = .066). However, having higher PTSD symptoms on either scale was associated with mortality, with a 5-point increase associated with ~20% increase in mortality risk (all p < .05). Controlling for lifetime depression only slightly altered the results. The effects for theater veterans alone were stronger (D-PTSD: HR = 2.58, p = .025; K-PTSD: HR = 2.73, p = .022). Among theater veterans, controlling for lifetime depression or combat exposure made little difference. Conclusion PTSD was prospectively associated with HD mortality among veterans free of HD at baseline. This study suggests that early-age HD may be an outcome after military service among PTSD-positive veterans. PMID:18596248

Using 'reverse triage' to create hospital surge capacity: Royal Darwin Hospital's response to the Ashmore Reef disaster.

PubMed

Satterthwaite, Peter S; Atkinson, Carol J

2012-02-01

This report analyses the impact of reverse triage, as described by Kelen, to rapidly assess the need for continuing inpatient care and to expedite patient discharge to create surge capacity for disaster victims. The Royal Darwin Hospital was asked to take up to 30 casualties suffering from blast injuries from a boat carrying asylum seekers that had exploded 840 km west of Darwin. The hospital was full, with a backlog of cases awaiting admission in the emergency department. The Disaster Response Team convened at 10:00 to develop the surge capacity to admit up to 30 casualties. By 14:00, 56 beds (16% of capacity) were predicted to be available by 18:00. The special circumstances of a disaster enabled staff to suspend their usual activities and place a priority on triaging inpatients' suitability for discharge. The External Disaster Plan was activated and response protocols were followed. Normal elective activity was suspended. Multidisciplinary teams immediately assessed patients and completed the necessary clinical and administrative requirements to discharge them quickly. As per the Plan there was increased use of community care options: respite nursing home beds and community nursing services. Through a combination of cancellation of all planned admissions, discharging 19 patients at least 1 day earlier than planned and discharging all patients earlier in the day surge capacity was made available in Royal Darwin Hospital to accommodate blast victims. Notably, reverse triage resulted in no increase in clinical risk with only one patient who was discharged early returning for further treatment.

Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

2015-12-01

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

Passive seismic monitoring of the Bering Glacier during its last surge event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Z.

2017-12-01

The physical causes behind glacier surges are still unclear. Numerous evidences suggest that they probably involve changes in glacier basal conditions, such as switch of basal water system from concentrated large tunnels to a distributed "layer" as "connected cavities". However, most remote sensing approaches can not penetrate to the base to monitor such changes continuously. Here we apply seismic interferometry using ambient noise to monitor glacier seismic structures, especially to detect possible signatures of the hypothesized high-pressure water "layer". As an example, we derive an 11-year long history of seismic structure of the Bering Glacier, Alaska, covering its latest surge event. We observe substantial drops of Rayleigh and Love wavespeeds across the glacier during the surge event, potentially caused by changes in crevasse density, glacier thickness, and basal conditions.

Surge dynamics coupled to pore-pressure evolution in debris flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savage, S.B.; Iverson, R.M.; ,

2003-01-01

Temporally and spatially varying pore-fluid pressures exert strong controls on debris-flow motion by mediating internal and basal friction at grain contacts. We analyze these effects by deriving a one-dimensional model of pore-pressure diffusion explicitly coupled to changes in debris-flow thickness. The new pore-pressure equation is combined with Iverson's (1997) extension of the depth-averaged Savage-Hutter (1989, 1991) granular avalanche equations to predict motion of unsteady debris-flow surges with evolving pore-pressure distributions. Computational results illustrate the profound effects of pore-pressure diffusivities on debris-flow surge depths and velocities. ?? 2003 Millpress,.

Evaluation of Ferrite Chip Beads as Surge Current Limiters in Circuits with Tantalum Capacitors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teverovsky, Alexander

2014-01-01

Limiting resistors are currently required to be connected in series with tantalum capacitors to reduce the risk of surge current failures. However, application of limiting resistors decreases substantially the efficiency of the power supply systems. An ideal surge current limiting device should have a negligible resistance for DC currents and high resistance at frequencies corresponding to transients in tantalum capacitors. This work evaluates the possibility of using chip ferrite beads (FB) as such devices. Twelve types of small size FBs from three manufacturers were used to evaluate their robustness under soldering stresses and at high surge current spikes associated with transients in tantalum capacitors. Results show that FBs are capable to withstand current pulses that are substantially greater than the specified current limits. However, due to a sharp decrease of impedance with current, FBs do not reduce surge currents to the required level that can be achieved with regular resistors.

Early increase of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio predicts 30-day mortality in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

PubMed

Wang, Fei; Xu, Feng; Quan, Ye; Wang, Li; Xia, Jian-Jun; Jiang, Ting-Ting; Shen, Li-Juan; Kang, Wen-Hui; Ding, Yong; Mei, Li-Xia; Ju, Xue-Feng; Hu, Shan-You; Wu, Xiao

2018-05-16

To examine whether early rise of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) after patient hospitalization correlates with 30-day mortality in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). This retrospective study included all patients receiving treatment for spontaneous ICH between January 2015 and September 2016 at the Jiading District Central Hospital Affiliated Shanghai University of Medicine & Health Sciences in Shanghai, China. NLR was determined at admission (T1), at 24-48 hours (T2) and 5-7 days (T3). NLR and clinicopathologic features were compared between those who survived for >30 days vs not. Multivariate regression was used to identify risk factors for 30-day mortality. A total of 275 subjects were included in the analysis: 235 survived for at least 30 days; the remaining 40 subjects died within 30 days. The patients who died within 30 days had higher ICH score, larger ICH volume, and lower GCS score (all P < 0.05). In comparison with the baseline (NLR T 1 ), NLR at 24-48 hours (NLR T 2 ) and 5-7 days (NLR T 3 ) was significantly higher in patients who died within 30 days (P < 0.05), but not in patients surviving for >30 days. In the multivariate analysis, the 30-day mortality was associated with both NLR T 2 (OR 1.112, 95%CI 1.032-1.199, P = 0.006) and NLR T 3 (OR 1.163, 95%CI 1.067-1.268, P = 0.001). Spearman correlation analysis showed that both NLR T 2 and NLR T 3 correlated inversely with GCS score and positively with ICH score and ICH volume at the baseline. Early rise of NLR predicts 30-day mortality in patients with spontaneous ICH. © 2018 The Authors. CNS Neuroscience & Therapeutics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Results of concurrent radio-chemotherapy for the treatment of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma in everyday clinical practice with special reference to early mortality

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Randomized controlled trials have established concurrent chemo-radiotherapy as the preferred treatment option for inoperable local-regionally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCCs). Because many patients have multiple co-morbidities and would not fulfill the eligibility criteria of clinical trials, the results need to be re-evaluated in daily clinical practice with special reference to early mortality. Methods 167 consecutive patients with HNSCC who received concurrent chemo-radiotherapy at the Basel University Hospital between 1988 and 2006 were analyzed retrospectively with a special focus on early deaths and risk factors for an unfavorable outcome. Results In our cohort, the 3- and 5-year overall survival rates were 54% and 47%, respectively. The therapy was associated with relevant toxicity and an early mortality rate of 5.4%. Patients dying early were analyzed individually for the cause of death. Patients with elevated white blood cell counts (HR: 2.66 p = 0,016) and vascular co-morbidities (HR: 5.3, p = 0,047) showed significantly worse survival rates. The same factors were associated with a trend toward increased treatment-related mortality. The 3-year survival rate improved from approximately 43% for patients treated before the year 2000 to 65% for patients treated after the year 2000 (Fisher’s exact test p = 0.01). Conclusions Although many patients who received concurrent chemo-radiotherapy would not have qualified for clinical trials, the outcome was favorable and has significantly improved in recent years. However the early mortality was slightly worse than what is described in the literature. PMID:24373220

Effect of bottle height and aspiration rate on postocclusion surge in Infiniti and Millennium peristaltic phacoemulsification machines.

PubMed

Ward, Matthew S; Georgescu, Dan; Olson, Randall J

2008-08-01

To assess how flow and bottle height affect postocclusion surge in the Infiniti (Alcon, Inc.) and Millennium (Bausch & Lomb) peristaltic machines. John A. Moran Eye Center Clinical Laboratories, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah. Postocclusion anterior chamber depth changes were measured in human eye-bank eyes using A-scan. Surge was simulated by clamping the aspiration tubing and releasing it at maximum vacuum. In both machines, surge was measured (1) with aspiration held constant at 12 mL/min and bottle heights at 60, 120, and 180 cm and (2) with bottle height held constant at 60 cm and aspiration rates at 12, 24, and 36 mL/min. Surge decreased approximately 40% with each 60 cm increase in bottle height in the Infiniti. It was constant at all bottle heights in the Millennium. At 12 and 24 mL/min aspiration rates, surge in the Millennium was less than half that in the Infiniti (P<.001). Postocclusion surge decreased linearly with increasing bottle height in the Infiniti system and was relatively constant with increasing bottle height in the Millennium system. The Millennium may offer a more stable phacoemulsification platform with respect to surge at a higher aspiration rate.

Effect of Surge Current Testing on Reliability of Solid Tantalum Capacitors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teverovsky, Alexander

2008-01-01

Tantalum capacitors manufactured per military specifications are established reliability components and have less than 0.001% of failures per 1000 hours for grades D or S, thus positioning these parts among electronic components with the highest reliability characteristics. Still, failures of tantalum capacitors do happen and when it occurs it might have catastrophic consequences for the system. To reduce this risk, further development of a screening and qualification system with special attention to the possible deficiencies in the existing procedures is necessary. The purpose of this work is evaluation of the effect of surge current stress testing on reliability of the parts at both steady-state and multiple surge current stress conditions. In order to reveal possible degradation and precipitate more failures, various part types were tested and stressed in the range of voltage and temperature conditions exceeding the specified limits. A model to estimate the probability of post-surge current testing-screening failures and measures to improve the effectiveness of the screening process has been suggested.

Automatic reconstruction of surge deposit thicknesses. Applications to some Italian volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armienti, P.; Pareschi, M. T.

1987-04-01

The energy cone concept has been adopted to describe some kinds of surge deposits. The energy cone parameters (height and slope) are evaluated through a regression technique which utilizes deposit thicknesses and the correspondent quotes and heights of the energy cone. The regression also allows to evaluate a coefficient of proportionality linking the deposit thickness to the distance between topographic surface and energy line for a given eruption. Moreover, if an accurate topography is available (in this case a reconstruction of a digitalized topography of the Phlegrean Fields and of the Vesuvius), the energy cone parameters, obtained by the backfitted technique, can be used to evaluate the order of magnitude of the deposit volumes. The hazard map for a surge localized at the Solfatara (Phlegraean Fields, Naples) has been computed. The values of the energy cone parameters and the volume have been assumed to be equal to those estimated with the regression technique applied to a past surge eruption in the same area.

[The role of supply-side characteristics of services in AIDS mortality in Mexico].

PubMed

Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Serván-Mori, Edson; Silverman-Retana, Omar; Contreras-Loya, David; Romero-Martínez, Martín; Magis-Rodríguez, Carlos; Uribe-Zúñiga, Patricia; Lozano, Rafael

2015-01-01

To document the association between supply-side determinants and AIDS mortality in Mexico between 2008 and 2013. We analyzed the SALVAR database (system for antiretroviral management, logistics and surveillance) as well as data collected through a nationally representative survey in health facilities. We used multivariate logit regression models to estimate the association between supply-side characteristics, namely management, training and experience of health care providers, and AIDS mortality, distinguishing early and non-early mortality and controlling for clinical indicators of the patients. Clinic status of the patients (initial CD4 and viral load) explain 44.4% of the variability of early mortality across clinics and 13.8% of the variability in non-early mortality. Supply-side characteristics increase explanatory power of the models by 16% in the case of early mortality, and 96% in the case of non-early mortality. Aspects of management and implementation of services contribute significantly to explain AIDS mortality in Mexico. Improving these aspects of the national program, can similarly improve its results.

Dead fish swimming: a review of research on the early migration and high premature mortality in adult Fraser River sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka.

PubMed

Hinch, S G; Cooke, S J; Farrell, A P; Miller, K M; Lapointe, M; Patterson, D A

2012-07-01

Adult sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka destined for the Fraser River, British Columbia are some of the most economically important populations but changes in the timing of their homeward migration have led to management challenges and conservation concerns. After a directed migration from the open ocean to the coast, this group historically would mill just off shore for 3-6 weeks prior to migrating up the Fraser River. This milling behaviour changed abruptly in 1995 and thereafter, decreasing to only a few days in some years (termed early migration), with dramatic consequences that have necessitated risk-averse management strategies. Early migrating fish consistently suffer extremely high mortality (exceeding 90% in some years) during freshwater migration and on spawning grounds prior to spawning. This synthesis examines multidisciplinary, collaborative research aimed at understanding what triggers early migration, why it results in high mortality, and how fisheries managers can utilize these scientific results. Tissue analyses from thousands of O. nerka captured along their migration trajectory from ocean to spawning grounds, including hundreds that were tracked with biotelemetry, have revealed that early migrants are more reproductively advanced and ill-prepared for osmoregulatory transition upon their entry into fresh water. Gene array profiles indicate that many early migrants are also immunocompromised and stressed, carrying a genomic profile consistent with a viral infection. The causes of these physiological changes are still under investigation. Early migration brings O. nerka into the river when it is 3-6° C warmer than historical norms, which for some late-run populations approaches or exceeds their critical maxima leading to the collapse of metabolic and cardiac scope, and mortality. As peak spawning dates have not changed, the surviving early migrants tend to mill in warm lakes near to spawning areas. These results in the accumulation of many more

A new concept for glacial geological investigations of surges, based on High-Arctic examples (Svalbard)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lønne, Ida

2016-01-01

Svalbard is a key area for the investigation of glacial surges, and almost two centuries worth of field observations exists from this region. Studies have shown that the course of a surge and the associated formation of landforms are strongly influenced by basinal factors, and that the broad range of variables involved can hamper interpretations and comparisons. Based on a review of surges in Svalbard, a new concept for glacial geological investigations has been developed that combines ice-flows, ice-front movements, and morphostratigraphy. The concept is comprised of the following four elements: 1) classification based on the configuration and characteristics of the receiving basin, 2) division of the surge cycle into six stages, 3) guidelines for morphological mapping, and 4) use of an allostratigraphic approach for interpreting ice-front movements. In this context, delineation of the active phase is critical, which include the history of terminus movements, and four main categories of receiving basins are recognized. These are (A) terrestrial basins with deformable substrates, (B) terrestrial basins with poorly deformable substrates, (C) shallow water basins, and (D) deep water basins. The ice-front movement history is reconstructed by coupling information from the proglacial moraines (syn-surge), the supraglacial moraines (post-surge), and the associated traces of meltwater to the surge stages (I-VI). This approach has revealed a critical relationship between the termination of the active phase and three morphological elements, namely, the maximum ice-front position, the maximum moraine extent and the youngest proglacial moraine, which are unique for each of the basins A-D. The concept is thus a novel and more precise approach for mapping the active phase and the active phase duration, as shown by the ∼12-year long surge of Fridtjovbreen, where stage I was 30 months (inception), stage II was 54 months (ice-front advance), stage III was 12 months (stillstand

Hurricane storm surge and amphibian communities in coastal wetlands of northwestern Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gunzburger, M.S.; Hughes, W.B.; Barichivich, W.J.; Staiger, J.S.

2010-01-01

Isolated wetlands in the Southeastern United States are dynamic habitats subject to fluctuating environmental conditions. Wetlands located near marine environments are subject to alterations in water chemistry due to storm surge during hurricanes. The objective of our study was to evaluate the effect of storm surge overwash on wetland amphibian communities. Thirty-two wetlands in northwestern Florida were sampled over a 45-month period to assess amphibian species richness and water chemistry. During this study, seven wetlands were overwashed by storm surge from Hurricane Dennis which made landfall 10 July 2005 in the Florida panhandle. This event allowed us to evaluate the effect of storm surge overwash on water chemistry and amphibian communities of the wetlands. Specific conductance across all wetlands was low pre-storm (<100 ??S/cm), but increased post-storm at the overwashed wetlands (x?? = 7,613 ??S/cm). Increased specific conductance was strongly correlated with increases in chloride concentrations. Amphibian species richness showed no correlation with specific conductance. One month post-storm we observed slightly fewer species in overwashed compared with non-overwashed wetlands, but this trend did not continue in 2006. More species were detected across all wetlands pre-storm, but there was no difference between overwashed and non-overwashed wetlands when considering all amphibian species or adult anurans and larval anurans separately. Amphibian species richness did not appear to be correlated with pH or presence of fish although the amphibian community composition differed between wetlands with and without fish. Our results suggest that amphibian communities in wetlands in the southeastern United States adjacent to marine habitats are resistant to the effects of storm surge overwash. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Surges and Si IV Bursts in the Solar Atmosphere: Understanding IRIS and SST Observations through RMHD Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nóbrega-Siverio, D.; Martínez-Sykora, J.; Moreno-Insertis, F.; Rouppe van der Voort, L.

2017-12-01

Surges often appear as a result of the emergence of magnetized plasma from the solar interior. Traditionally, they are observed in chromospheric lines such as Hα 6563 \\mathringA and Ca II 8542 \\mathringA . However, whether there is a response to the surge appearance and evolution in the Si IV lines or, in fact, in many other transition region lines has not been studied. In this paper, we analyze a simultaneous episode of an Hα surge and a Si IV burst that occurred on 2016 September 03 in active region AR 12585. To that end, we use coordinated observations from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph and the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope. For the first time, we report emission of Si IV within the surge, finding profiles that are brighter and broader than the average. Furthermore, the brightest Si IV patches within the domain of the surge are located mainly near its footpoints. To understand the relation between the surges and the emission in transition region lines like Si IV, we have carried out 2.5D radiative MHD (RMHD) experiments of magnetic flux emergence episodes using the Bifrost code and including the nonequilibrium ionization of silicon. Through spectral synthesis, we explain several features of the observations. We show that the presence of Si IV emission patches within the surge, their location near the surge footpoints and various observed spectral features are a natural consequence of the emergence of magnetized plasma from the interior to the atmosphere and the ensuing reconnection processes.

Association of educational attainment with chronic disease and mortality: the Kidney Early Evaluation Program (KEEP).

PubMed

Choi, Andy I; Weekley, Cristin C; Chen, Shu-Cheng; Li, Suying; Tamura, Manjula Kurella; Norris, Keith C; Shlipak, Michael G

2011-08-01

Recent reports have suggested a close relationship between education and health, including mortality, in the United States. Observational cohort. We studied 61,457 participants enrolled in a national health screening initiative, the National Kidney Foundation's Kidney Early Evaluation Program (KEEP). Self-reported educational attainment. Chronic diseases (hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, reduced kidney function, and albuminuria) and mortality. We evaluated cross-sectional associations between self-reported educational attainment with the chronic diseases listed using logistic regression models adjusted for demographics, access to care, behaviors, and comorbid conditions. The association of educational attainment with survival was determined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Higher educational attainment was associated with a lower prevalence of each of the chronic conditions listed. In multivariable models, compared with persons not completing high school, college graduates had a lower risk of each chronic condition, ranging from 11% lower odds of decreased kidney function to 37% lower odds of cardiovascular disease. During a mean follow-up of 3.9 (median, 3.7) years, 2,384 (4%) deaths occurred. In the fully adjusted Cox model, those who had completed college had 24% lower mortality compared with participants who had completed at least some high school. Lack of income data does not allow us to disentangle the independent effects of education from income. In this diverse contemporary cohort, higher educational attainment was associated independently with a lower prevalence of chronic diseases and short-term mortality in all age and race/ethnicity groups. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Improvements of Storm Surge Modelling in the Gulf of Venice with Satellite Data: The ESA Due Esurge-Venice Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Biasio, F.; Bajo, M.; Vignudelli, S.; Papa, A.; della Valle, A.; Umgiesser, G.; Donlon, C.; Zecchetto, S.

2016-08-01

Among the most detrimental natural phenomena, storm surges heavily endanger the environment, the economy and the everyday life of sea-side countries and coastal zones. Considering that 120.000.000 people live in the Mediterranean area, with additional 200.000.000 presences in Summer for tourism purposes, the correct prediction of storm surges is crucial to avoid fatalities and economic losses. Earth Observation (EO) can play an important role in operational storm surge forecasting, yet it is not widely diffused in the storm surge community. In 2011 the European Space Agency (ESA), through its Data User Element (DUE) programme, financed two projects aimed at encouraging the uptake of EO data in this sector: eSurge and eSurge-Venice (eSV). The former was intended to address the issues of a wider users' community, while the latter was focused on a restricted geographical area: the northern Adriatic Sea and the Gulf of Venice. Among the objectives of the two projects there were a number of storm surge hindcast experiments using satellite data, to demonstrate the improvements on the surge forecast brought by EO. We report here the results of the hindcast experiments of the eSV project. They were aimed to test the sensitivity of a storm surge model to a forcing wind field modified with scatterometer data in order to reduce the bias between simulated and observed winds. Hindcast experiments were also performed to test the response of the storm surge model to the assimilation, with a dual 4D-Var system, of satellite altimetry observations as model errors of the initial state of the sea surface level. Remarkable improvements on the storm surge forecast have been obtained for what concerns the modified model wind forcing. Encouraging results have been obtained also in the assimilation experiments.

Current & future vulnerability of sarasota county Florida to hurricane storm surge & sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.

2008-01-01

Coastal communities in portions of the United States are vulnerable to storm-surge inundation from hurricanes and this vulnerability will likely increase, given predicted rises in sea level from climate change and growing coastal development. In this paper, we provide an overview of research to determine current and future societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge inundation and to help public officials and planners integrate these scenarios into their long-range land use plans. Our case study is Sarasota County, Florida, where planners face the challenge of balancing increasing population growth and development with the desire to lower vulnerability to storm surge. Initial results indicate that a large proportion of Sarasota County's residential and employee populations are in areas prone to storm-surge inundation from a Category 5 hurricane. This hazard zone increases when accounting for potential sea-level-rise scenarios, thereby putting additional populations at risk. Subsequent project phases involve the development of future land use and vulnerability scenarios in collaboration with local officials. Copyright ASCE 2008.

Swift snowmelt and floods (lahars) caused by great pyroclastic surge at Mount St Helens volcano, Washington, 18 May 1980

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waitt, R.B.

1989-01-01

The initial explosions at Mount St. Helens, Washington, on the moring of 18 May 1980 developed into a huge pyroclastic surge that generated catastrophic floods off the east and west flanks of the volcano. Near-source surge deposits on the east and west were lithic, sorted, lacking in accretionary lapilli and vesiculated ash, not plastered against upright obstacles, and hot enough to char wood - all attributes of dry pyroclastic surge. Material deposited at the surge base on steep slopes near the volcano transformed into high-concentration lithic pyroclastic flows whose deposits contain charred wood and other features indicating that these flows were hot and dry. Stratigraphy shows that even the tail of the surge had passed the east and west volcano flanks before the geomorphically distinct floods (lahars) arrived. This field evidence undermines hypotheses that the turbulent surge was itself wet and that its heavy components segregated out to transform directly into lahars. Nor is there evidence that meters-thick snow-slab avalanches intimately mixed with the surge to form the floods. The floods must have instead originated by swift snowmelt at the base of a hot and relatively dry turbulent surge. Impacting hot pyroclasts probably transferred downslope momentum to the snow surface and churned snow grains into the surge base. Melting snow and accumulating hot surge debris may have moved initially as thousands of small thin slushflows. As these flows removed the surface snow and pyroclasts, newly uncovered snow was partly melted by the turbulent surge base; this and accumulating hot surge debris in turn began flowing, a self-sustaining process feeding the initial flows. The flows thus grew swiftly over tens of seconds and united downslope into great slushy ejecta-laden sheetfloods. Gravity accelerated the floods to more than 100 km/h as they swept down and off the volcano flanks while the snow component melted to form great debris-rich floods (lahars) channeled into

Effects of prenatal micronutrient and early food supplementation on maternal hemoglobin, birth weight, and infant mortality among children in Bangladesh: the MINIMat randomized trial.

PubMed

Persson, Lars Åke; Arifeen, Shams; Ekström, Eva-Charlotte; Rasmussen, Kathleen M; Frongillo, Edward A; Yunus, Md

2012-05-16

Nutritional insult in fetal life and small size at birth are common in low-income countries and are associated with serious health consequences. To test the hypothesis that prenatal multiple micronutrient supplementation (MMS) and an early invitation to food supplementation would increase maternal hemoglobin level and birth weight and decrease infant mortality, and to assess whether a combination of these interventions would further enhance these outcomes. A randomized trial with a factorial design in Matlab, Bangladesh, of 4436 pregnant women, recruited between November 11, 2001, and October 30, 2003, with follow-up until June 23, 2009. Participants were randomized into 6 groups; a double-masked supplementation with capsules of 30 mg of iron and 400 μg of folic acid, 60 mg of iron and 400 μg of folic acid, or MMS containing a daily allowance of 15 micronutrients, including 30 mg of iron and 400 μg of folic acid, was combined with food supplementation (608 kcal 6 days per week) randomized to either early invitation (9 weeks' gestation) or usual invitation (20 weeks' gestation). Maternal hemoglobin level at 30 weeks' gestation, birth weight, and infant mortality. Under 5-year mortality was also assessed. Adjusted maternal hemoglobin level at 30 weeks' gestation was 115.0 g/L (95% CI, 114.4-115.5 g/L), with no significant differences among micronutrient groups. Mean maternal hemoglobin level was lower in the early vs usual invitation groups (114.5 vs 115.4 g/L; difference, -0.9 g/L; 95% CI, -1.7 to -0.1; P = .04). There were 3625 live births out of 4436 pregnancies. Mean birth weight among 3267 singletons was 2694 g (95% CI, 2680-2708 g), with no significant differences among groups. The early invitation with MMS group had an infant mortality rate of 16.8 per 1000 live births vs 44.1 per 1000 live births for usual invitation with 60 mg of iron and 400 μg of folic acid (hazard ratio [HR], 0.38; 95% CI, 0.18-0.78). Early invitation with MMS group had an under 5

Disaster metrics: quantitative benchmarking of hospital surge capacity in trauma-related multiple casualty events.

PubMed

Bayram, Jamil D; Zuabi, Shawki; Subbarao, Italo

2011-06-01

Hospital surge capacity in multiple casualty events (MCE) is the core of hospital medical response, and an integral part of the total medical capacity of the community affected. To date, however, there has been no consensus regarding the definition or quantification of hospital surge capacity. The first objective of this study was to quantitatively benchmark the various components of hospital surge capacity pertaining to the care of critically and moderately injured patients in trauma-related MCE. The second objective was to illustrate the applications of those quantitative parameters in local, regional, national, and international disaster planning; in the distribution of patients to various hospitals by prehospital medical services; and in the decision-making process for ambulance diversion. A 2-step approach was adopted in the methodology of this study. First, an extensive literature search was performed, followed by mathematical modeling. Quantitative studies on hospital surge capacity for trauma injuries were used as the framework for our model. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization triage categories (T1-T4) were used in the modeling process for simplicity purposes. Hospital Acute Care Surge Capacity (HACSC) was defined as the maximum number of critical (T1) and moderate (T2) casualties a hospital can adequately care for per hour, after recruiting all possible additional medical assets. HACSC was modeled to be equal to the number of emergency department beds (#EDB), divided by the emergency department time (EDT); HACSC = #EDB/EDT. In trauma-related MCE, the EDT was quantitatively benchmarked to be 2.5 (hours). Because most of the critical and moderate casualties arrive at hospitals within a 6-hour period requiring admission (by definition), the hospital bed surge capacity must match the HACSC at 6 hours to ensure coordinated care, and it was mathematically benchmarked to be 18% of the staffed hospital bed capacity. Defining and quantitatively benchmarking the

Following Watery Relations in Early Childhood Pedagogies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pacini-Ketchabaw, Veronica; Clark, Vanessa

2016-01-01

Working methodologically and theoretically with the hydro-logics of bodies of water, this article addresses the limitations of humanistic perspectives on water play in early childhood classrooms, and proposes pedagogies of watery relations. The article traces the fluid, murky, surging, creative, unpredictable specificities of bodies of water that…

14 CFR 33.65 - Surge and stall characteristics.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Section 33.65 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: AIRCRAFT ENGINES Design and Construction; Turbine Aircraft Engines § 33.65 Surge and stall characteristics. When the engine is operated in accordance with operating instructions required by...

14 CFR 33.65 - Surge and stall characteristics.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Section 33.65 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: AIRCRAFT ENGINES Design and Construction; Turbine Aircraft Engines § 33.65 Surge and stall characteristics. When the engine is operated in accordance with operating instructions required by...

Method and system for turbomachinery surge detection

DOEpatents

Faymon, David K.; Mays, Darrell C.; Xiong, Yufei

2004-11-23

A method and system for surge detection within a gas turbine engine, comprises: measuring the compressor discharge pressure (CDP) of the gas turbine over a period of time; determining a time derivative (CDP.sub.D ) of the measured (CDP) correcting the CDP.sub.D for altitude, (CDP.sub.DCOR); estimating a short-term average of CDP.sub.DCOR.sup.2 ; estimating a short-term average of CDP.sub.DCOR ; and determining a short-term variance of corrected CDP rate of change (CDP.sub.roc) based upon the short-term average of CDP.sub.DCOR and the short-term average of CDP.sub.DCOR.sup.2. The method and system then compares the short-term variance of corrected CDP rate of change with a pre-determined threshold (CDP.sub.proc) and signals an output when CDP.sub.roc >CDP.sub.proc. The method and system provides a signal of a surge within the gas turbine engine when CDP.sub.roc remains>CDP.sub.proc for pre-determined period of time.

Role of exogenous estrogen in initiation of estrus and induction of an LH surge

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Among cattle the LH surge that causes ovulation occurs shortly after the onset of a spontaneous estrus. In addition an injection of 100 'g of GnRH can induce an LH surge capable of inducing ovulation. We hypothesized that different preovulatory estradiol profiles would result in different ovulator...

On using scatterometer and altimeter data to improve storm surge forecasting in the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajo, Marco; Umgiesser, Georg; De Biasio, Francesco; Vignudelli, Stefano; Zecchetto, Stefano

2017-04-01

Satellite data are seldom used in storm surge forecasting. Among the most important issues related to the storm surge forecasting are the quality of the model wind forcing and the initial condition of the sea surface elevation. In this work, focused on storm surge forecasting in the Adriatic Sea, satellite scatterometer wind data are used to correct the wind speed and direction biases of the ECMWF global atmospheric model by tuning the spatial fields, as an alternative to data assimilation. The capability of such an unbiased wind is tested against that of a high resolution wind, produced by a regional non-hydrostatic model. On the other hand, altimeter Total Water Level Envelope (TWLE) data, which provide the sea level elevation, are used to improve the accuracy of the initial state of the model simulations. This is done by assimilating into a storm surge model the TWLE obtained by the altimeter observations along ground tracks, after subtraction of the tidal components. In order to test the methodology, eleven storm surge events recorded in Venice, from 2008 to 2012, have been simulated using different configurations of forcing wind and altimeter data assimilation. Results show that the relative error on the estimation of the maximum surge peak, averaged over the cases considered, decreases from 13% to 7% using both the unbiased wind and the altimeter data assimilation, while forcing the hydrodynamic model with the high resolution wind (no tuning), the altimeter data assimilation reduces the error from 9% to 6%.

The basal fallout and surge deposits of the mafic ignimbrite-forming Villa Senni Eruption Unit, (Colli Albani volcano, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinkler, A.; Ort, M. H.; Giordano, G.

2009-12-01

The Villa Senni Eruption Unit (350ka) represents the youngest large caldera-forming eruption of the Colli Albani volcano near Rome (Italy). The Colli Albani magma is marked by very undersaturated chemistry (tephritic to K-foiditic) and low viscosity. The total volume of the Villa Senni Eruption Unit is estimated at > 50 km3 and 30 km3 DRE (Watkins et al., 2002). The unit includes a sequence of a basal fallout/surge deposit, two main ignimbrites emplaced during the same eruptive event, a series of breccia deposits positioned between the two ignimbrites, and a rarely preserved final fallout. The basal surge and fallout sequence may help answer questions regarding the beginning of a large mafic ignimbrite eruption. The entire surge and fallout deposit is 190 cm thick at the caldera wall, consisting of 19 individual, parallel to faintly cross-stratified layers. The deposit distally thins to 25 cm at 18 km east of the caldera and to 2.5 cm at 21 km NW of the caldera. The eruption started with fine ash surges showing cross-stratification at proximal locations and being vesicular distally. The deposit consists mainly of juvenile clasts, which are angular, poorly vesicular, and rich in leucite microlites (~80 µm). Clasts around 100-150 μm show signs of magma-water interaction: quench fracturing: conchoidal and step fractures, smooth surfaces, adhering clasts and melt film. These features are present in several thin alternating surge and fall sequences at the base of the deposit. The lithic clasts in these first deposits are concentrated in layers, indicating pulsatory behavior of the eruption. Upward, the deposit consists of thicker, coarse ash to lapilli fallout layers from more sustained columns. The juvenile clasts in these deposits are more irregular, with higher vesicularity (but less than 50%) and smaller leucite microlites (~60 μm). The uppermost part of the basal fallout/surge deposit shows features transitional to the first large ignimbrite: fallout deposits

Early Standard Electroencephalogram Abnormalities Predict Mortality in Septic Intensive Care Unit Patients

PubMed Central

Azabou, Eric; Magalhaes, Eric; Braconnier, Antoine; Yahiaoui, Lyria; Moneger, Guy; Heming, Nicholas; Annane, Djillali; Mantz, Jean; Chrétien, Fabrice; Durand, Marie-Christine; Lofaso, Frédéric; Porcher, Raphael; Sharshar, Tarek

2015-01-01

Introduction Sepsis is associated with increased mortality, delirium and long-term cognitive impairment in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Electroencephalogram (EEG) abnormalities occurring at the acute stage of sepsis may correlate with severity of brain dysfunction. Predictive value of early standard EEG abnormalities for mortality in ICU septic patients remains to be assessed. Methods In this prospective, single center, observational study, standard EEG was performed, analyzed and classified according to both Synek and Young EEG scales, in consecutive patients acutely admitted in ICU for sepsis. Delirium, coma and the level of sedation were assessed at the time of EEG recording; and duration of sedation, occurrence of in-ICU delirium or death were assessed during follow-up. Adjusted analyses were carried out using multiple logistic regression. Results One hundred ten patients were included, mean age 63.8 (±18.1) years, median SAPS-II score 38 (29–55). At the time of EEG recording, 46 patients (42%) were sedated and 22 (20%) suffered from delirium. Overall, 54 patients (49%) developed delirium, of which 32 (29%) in the days after EEG recording. 23 (21%) patients died in the ICU. Absence of EEG reactivity was observed in 27 patients (25%), periodic discharges (PDs) in 21 (19%) and electrographic seizures (ESZ) in 17 (15%). ICU mortality was independently associated with a delta-predominant background (OR: 3.36; 95% CI [1.08 to 10.4]), absence of EEG reactivity (OR: 4.44; 95% CI [1.37–14.3], PDs (OR: 3.24; 95% CI [1.03 to 10.2]), Synek grade ≥ 3 (OR: 5.35; 95% CI [1.66–17.2]) and Young grade > 1 (OR: 3.44; 95% CI [1.09–10.8]) after adjustment to Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS-II) at admission and level of sedation. Delirium at the time of EEG was associated with ESZ in non-sedated patients (32% vs 10%, p = 0.037); with Synek grade ≥ 3 (36% vs 7%, p< 0.05) and Young grade > 1 (36% vs 17%, p< 0.001). Occurrence of delirium in the days after

The Danger of Deja Vu: Why the Iraq Surge is Not a Lesson for Afghanistan

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

JAN 2010 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-12-2009 to 00-01-2010 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The danger of deja vu . Why the Iraq surge is not a lesson...of five brigade combat teams — eerily mim- icked the surge number for Iraq. And there was more déjà vu when our senior civilian and military leaders...Department. PERSPECTIVES The danger of déjà vu Why the Iraq surge is not a lesson for Afghanistan BY COL. CHARLES D. ALLEN (RET.) The thing we take hold of

Specific Consideration on Superior Performance and Evaluation Methods of Polymer-housed Surge Arresters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishizaki, Yoshihiro; Kobayashi, Misao; Suzuki, Hironori; Futagami, Koichi

It is very suitable to select the polymer materials for the housings of surge arresters (SAs), because the polymer materials are generally soft and light weight. Therefore, many kinds of polymer-housed SAs using various polymer materials have been developed, and expanding into many countries. Considering these backgrounds, the JEC technical report (JEC-TR) 23002-2008; polymer-housed surge arrester(1) has been established based on the existent relevant standards of arresters, such as JEC-2371-2003; Insulator-housed surge arresters(2) and IEC 60099-4 Edition 2.2, Metal-oxide surge arresters (MOSAs) without gaps for a.c. systems(3) in order to introduce the technology and provide a common guide for testing of polymer-housed SAs. According as the JEC-TR, the various new applications of the polymer-housed SAs, which are caused by superior advantages such as compact, light weight, safe failure mode, anti-seismic performance, anti-pollution performance and cost efficiency design, have been realized recently in Japan. Therefore, this paper gives specific consideration on the superior performance of the polymer-housed SAs and the evaluation methods of the polymer-housed SAs, because there are some issues in the existent standards to be solved.

An Investigation of Surge in a High-Speed Centrifugal Compressor Using Digital PIV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wernet, Mark P.; Bright, Michelle M.; Skoch, Gary J.

2001-01-01

Compressor stall is a catastrophic breakdown of the flow in a compressor, which con lead to a loss of engine power, large pressure transients in the inlet/nacelle, and engine flameout. The implementation of active or passive strategies for controlling rotating stall and surge can significantly extend the stable operating range of a compressor without substantially sacrificing performance. It is crucial to identify the dynamic changes occurring in the flow field prior to rotating stall and surge in order to control these events successfully. Generally, pressure transducer measurements are made to capture the transient response of a compressor prior to rotating stall. In this investigation, Digital Particle Imaging Velocimetry (DPIV) is used in conjunction with dynamic pressure transducers to capture transient velocity and pressure measurements simultaneously in the nonstationary flow field during compressor surge. DPIV is an instantaneous, planar measurement technique that is ideally suited for studying transient flow phenomena in highspeed turbomachinery and has been used previously to map the stable operating point flow field in the diffuser of a high-speed centrifugal compressor. Through the acquisition of both DPIV images and transient pressure data, the time evolution of the unsteady flow during surge is revealed.

Assessment of the Temporal Evolution of Storm Surge via Land to Water Isopleths in Coastal Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siverd, C. G.; Hagen, S. C.; Bilskie, M. V.; Braud, D.; Gao, S.; Peele, H.; Twilley, R.

2017-12-01

The low-lying coastal Louisiana deltaic landscape features an intricate system of fragmented wetlands, natural ridges, man-made navigation canals and flood protection infrastructure. Since 1900 and prior to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Louisiana lost approximately 480,000 ha (1,850 sq mi) of coastal wetlands and an additional 20,000 ha (77 sq mi) due to Katrina. This resulted in a total wetland storm protection value loss of USD 28.3 billion and USD 1.1 billion, respectively (Costanza 2008). To investigate the response of hurricane storm surge (e.g. peak water levels, inundation time and extent) through time due to land loss, hydrodynamic models that represent historical eras of the Louisiana coastal landscape were developed. Land:Water (L:W) isopleths (Gagliano 1970, 1971, Twilley 2016) have been calculated along the coast from the Sabine River to the Pearl River. These isopleths were utilized to create a simplified coastal landscape (bathymetry, topography, bottom roughness) representing circa 2010. Similar methodologies are employed with the objective of developing storm surge models that represent the coastal landscape for past eras. The goal is to temporally examine the evolution of storm surge along coastal Louisiana. The isopleths determined to best represent the Louisiana coast as a result of the methodology devised to develop the simple storm surge model for c.2010 are applied in the development of surge models for historical eras c.1930 and c.1970. The ADvaced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) code (Luettich 2004) is used to perform storm surge simulations with a predetermined suite of hurricane wind and pressure forcings. Hydrologic Unit Code 12 (HUC12) sub-watersheds provide geographical bounds to quantify mean maximum water surface elevations (WSEs), volume of inundation, and area of inundation. HUC12 sub-watersheds also provide a means to compare/contrast these quantified surge parameters on a HUC12-by-HUC12 basis for the c.1930, c.1970 and c.2010

No effect of an additional early dose of measles vaccine on hospitalization or mortality in children: A randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Schoeps, Anja; Nebié, Eric; Fisker, Ane Baerent; Sié, Ali; Zakane, Alphonse; Müller, Olaf; Aaby, Peter; Becher, Heiko

2018-04-05

Non-specific effects (NSEs) of vaccines have increasingly gained attention in recent years. Recent studies suggest that live vaccines, such as measles vaccine (MV), have beneficial effects on health, while inactivated vaccines, such as the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccine, may have harmful effects. If this is the case, it should improve child health to move MV closer to the last vaccination with DTP. The objective of this study was to investigate the NSEs of an additional early dose of MV on hospitalization or mortality. Children were randomized to receive either the standard MV at 9 months (control) or an additional early dose of MV 4 weeks after the third dose of DTP-containing Pentavalent vaccine and the standard MV at 9 months (intervention). In this analysis of a secondary outcome in the trial, we investigated the effect of the intervention on a composite endpoint of over-night hospitalization with or without recovery, or death without previous hospitalization, in children between 4.5 and 36 months of age in the Nouna HDSS in Burkina Faso. We used Cox proportional hazards regression with repeated events and time since study enrolment as underlying time-scale. Among 2258 children in the intervention and 2238 children in the control group we observed a total of 464 episodes of hospitalization or mortality. There was no difference between intervention and control group (HR = 1.00, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.83-1.20). Results from the per-protocol and intention-to-treat analysis were similar. Although no significant, results suggest a possible beneficial effect of early MV in children that had not been exposed to an OPV campaign after enrolment (HR = 0.83, 95% CI 0.55-1.29). We did not detect any effect of early MV on subsequent hospitalization or mortality. However, possible effects of early MV could have been obscured by NSEs of the frequent OPV campaigns. Registration: The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01644721

High Resolution Hurricane Storm Surge and Inundation Modeling (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luettich, R.; Westerink, J. J.

2010-12-01

Coastal counties are home to nearly 60% of the U.S. population and industry that accounts for over 16 million jobs and 10% of the U.S. annual gross domestic product. However, these areas are susceptible to some of the most destructive forces in nature, including tsunamis, floods, and severe storm-related hazards. Since 1900, tropical cyclones making landfall on the US Gulf of Mexico Coast have caused more than 9,000 deaths; nearly 2,000 deaths have occurred during the past half century. Tropical cyclone-related adjusted, annualized losses in the US have risen from 1.3 billion from 1949-1989, to 10.1 billion from 1990-1995, and $35.8 billion per year for the period 2001-2005. The risk associated with living and doing business in the coastal areas that are most susceptible to tropical cyclones is exacerbated by rising sea level and changes in the characteristics of severe storms associated with global climate change. In the five years since hurricane Katrina devastated the northern Gulf of Mexico Coast, considerable progress has been made in the development and utilization of high resolution coupled storm surge and wave models. Recent progress will be presented with the ADCIRC + SWAN storm surge and wave models. These tightly coupled models use a common unstructured grid in the horizontal that is capable of covering large areas while also providing high resolution (i.e., base resolution down to 20m plus smaller subgrid scale features such as sea walls and levees) in areas that are subject to surge and inundation. Hydrodynamic friction and overland winds are adjusted to account for local land cover. The models scale extremely well on modern high performance computers allowing rapid turnaround on large numbers of compute cores. The models have been adopted for FEMA National Flood Insurance Program studies, hurricane protection system design and risk analysis, and quasi-operational forecast systems for several regions of the country. They are also being evaluated as

Early cessation of triptorelin in in vitro fertilization: a double-blind, randomized study.

PubMed

Simons, Arnold H M; Roelofs, Henny J M; Schmoutziguer, Alex P E; Roozenburg, Brigitte J; van't Hof-van den Brink, Eefje P; Schoonderwoerd, Simon A

2005-04-01

To compare the efficacy of two early cessation protocols of triptorelin treatment in controlled ovarian hyperstimulation with the conventional long protocol in in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection. A double-blind, randomized, multicenter study. Three Dutch hospitals. One hundred seventy-eight women randomized to one of three treatment groups at the start of stimulation. Midluteally started triptorelin administration was continued until the first day of hMG treatment (group S), or up to and including the fourth day of hMG treatment (group M) or the day of hCG injection (group L). Occurrence of a premature LH surge. One premature LH surge was observed in group M but not in groups S and L. Both early cessation protocols (S and M) are at least as effective as the long protocol (L) with regard to the number of oocytes (11.1 and 10.3 vs. 9.3), number of embryos (7.3 and 6.5 vs. 5.5), and ongoing pregnancy rate (28% and 24% vs. 21%). Early cessation of triptorelin on day 1 of hMG treatment in a midluteally started IVF protocol is as effective as the traditional long protocol in preventing a premature LH surge and results in similar fertility effects.

Tree rings provide early warning signals of jack pine mortality across a moisture gradient in the southern boreal forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamet, S. D.; Chun, K. P.; Metsaranta, J. M.; Barr, A. G.; Johnstone, J. F.

2015-08-01

Recent declines in productivity and tree survival have been widely observed in boreal forests. We used early warning signals (EWS) in tree ring data to anticipate premature mortality in jack pine (Pinus banksiana)—an extensive and dominant species occurring across the moisture-limited southern boreal forest in North America. We sampled tree rings from 113 living and 84 dead trees in three soil moisture regimes (subxeric, submesic, subhygric) in central Saskatchewan, Canada. We reconstructed annual increments of tree basal area to investigate (1) whether we could detect EWS related to mortality of individual trees, and (2) how water availability and tree growth history may explain the mortality warning signs. EWS were evident as punctuated changes in growth patterns prior to transition to an alternative state of reduced growth before dying. This transition was likely triggered by a combination of severe drought and insect outbreak. Higher moisture availability associated with a soil moisture gradient did not appear to reduce tree sensitivity to stress-induced mortality. Our results suggest tree rings offer considerable potential for detecting critical transitions in tree growth, which are linked to premature mortality.

[VIABILITY OF MYOCAROIUM AS RISK FACTOR FOR MORTALITY IN EARLY AND LATE PERIOD AFTER BYPASS SURGERY OF CORONARY ARTERIES IN PATIENTS WITH CORONARY HEART DISEASE AND SEVERE LEFT VENTRICULAR DYSFUNCTION].

PubMed

Todurov, B M; Zelenchuk, V; Kuzmich, I M; Ivanyuk, N B; Nikolaichuk, M V

2015-06-01

In coronary heart disease and low ejection fraction of the left ventricle (LV) in patients after coronary artery bypass surgery tend mortality and complication rate higher than preserved LV systolic function. Significant preoperative predictors of early mortality and remote in these patients, and the incidence of complications in the early postoperative period were reveald.

Association of Sepsis-Related Mortality with Early Increase of TIMP-1/MMP-9 Ratio

PubMed Central

Lorente, Leonardo; Martín, María M.; Solé-Violán, Jordi; Blanquer, José; Labarta, Lorenzo; Díaz, César; Borreguero-León, Juan M.; Orbe, Josune; Rodríguez, José A.; Jiménez, Alejandro; Páramo, José A.

2014-01-01

Objective Higher circulating levels of tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinases (TIMP)-1 at the time of severe sepsis diagnosis have been reported in nonsurviving than in surviving patients. However, the following questions remain unanswered: 1) Does TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio differ throughout the first week of intensive care between surviving and non-surviving patients? 2) Is there an association between TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio and sepsis severity and mortality during such period? 3) Could TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio during the first week be used as an early biomarker of sepsis outcome? 4) Is there an association between TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio and coagulation state and circulating cytokine levels during the first week of intensive care in these patients? The present study sought to answer these questions. Methods Multicenter, observational and prospective study carried out in six Spanish Intensive Care Units (ICUs) of 295 patients with severe sepsis. Were measured circulating levels of TIMP-1, MMP-9, tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, interleukin (IL)-10 and plasminogen activator inhibitor (PAI)-1 at day 1, 4 and 8. End-point was 30-day mortality. Results We found higher TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio during the first week in non-surviving (n = 98) than in surviving patients (n = 197) (p<0.01). Logistic regression analyses showed that TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio at days 1, 4 and 8 was associated with mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed that TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio at days 1, 4 and 8 could predict mortality. There was an association between TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio and TNF-alpha, IL-10, PAI-1 and lactic acid levels, SOFA score and platelet count at days 1, 4 and 8. Conclusions The novel findings of our study were that non-surviving septic patients showed persistently higher TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio than survivors ones during the first week, which was associated with severity, coagulation state, circulating cytokine levels and mortality; thus representing a new biomarker of sepsis

Association of sepsis-related mortality with early increase of TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio.

PubMed

Lorente, Leonardo; Martín, María M; Solé-Violán, Jordi; Blanquer, José; Labarta, Lorenzo; Díaz, César; Borreguero-León, Juan M; Orbe, Josune; Rodríguez, José A; Jiménez, Alejandro; Páramo, José A

2014-01-01

Higher circulating levels of tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinases (TIMP)-1 at the time of severe sepsis diagnosis have been reported in nonsurviving than in surviving patients. However, the following questions remain unanswered: 1) Does TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio differ throughout the first week of intensive care between surviving and non-surviving patients? 2) Is there an association between TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio and sepsis severity and mortality during such period? 3) Could TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio during the first week be used as an early biomarker of sepsis outcome? 4) Is there an association between TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio and coagulation state and circulating cytokine levels during the first week of intensive care in these patients? The present study sought to answer these questions. Multicenter, observational and prospective study carried out in six Spanish Intensive Care Units (ICUs) of 295 patients with severe sepsis. Were measured circulating levels of TIMP-1, MMP-9, tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, interleukin (IL)-10 and plasminogen activator inhibitor (PAI)-1 at day 1, 4 and 8. End-point was 30-day mortality. We found higher TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio during the first week in non-surviving (n = 98) than in surviving patients (n = 197) (p<0.01). Logistic regression analyses showed that TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio at days 1, 4 and 8 was associated with mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed that TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio at days 1, 4 and 8 could predict mortality. There was an association between TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio and TNF-alpha, IL-10, PAI-1 and lactic acid levels, SOFA score and platelet count at days 1, 4 and 8. The novel findings of our study were that non-surviving septic patients showed persistently higher TIMP-1/MMP-9 ratio than survivors ones during the first week, which was associated with severity, coagulation state, circulating cytokine levels and mortality; thus representing a new biomarker of sepsis outcome.

Application of a coupled vegetation competition and groundwater simulation model to study effects of sea level rise and storm surges on coastal vegetation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Teh, Su Yean; Turtora, Michael; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Jiang Jiang,; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Smith, Thomas; Koh, Hock Lye

2015-01-01

Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR) and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM) is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA) to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information.

Early-life mortality risks in opposite-sex and same-sex twins: a Danish cohort study of the twin testosterone transfer hypothesis

PubMed Central

Ahrenfeldt, Linda Juel; Larsen, Lisbeth Aagaard; Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Skytthe, Axel; Hjelmborg, Jacob v.B.; Möller, Sören; Christensen, Kaare

2017-01-01

Purpose To investigate the twin testosterone transfer (TTT) hypothesis by comparing early-life mortality risks of opposite-sex (OS) and same-sex (SS) twins during the first 15 years of life. Methods We performed a population-based cohort study to compare mortality in OS and SS twins. We included 68,629 live-born Danish twins from 1973 to 2009 identified through the Danish Twin Registry and performed piecewise stratified Cox regression and log-binomial regression. Results Among 1933 deaths, we found significantly higher mortality for twin boys than for twin girls. For both sexes, OS twins had lower mortality than SS twins; the difference persisted for the first year of life for boys and for the first week of life for girls. Conclusions Although the mortality risk for OS boys was in the expected direction according to the TTT hypothesis, the results for OS girls pointed in the opposite direction, providing no clear evidence for the TTT hypothesis. PMID:28024904

Early-life mortality risks in opposite-sex and same-sex twins: a Danish cohort study of the twin testosterone transfer hypothesis.

PubMed

Ahrenfeldt, Linda Juel; Larsen, Lisbeth Aagaard; Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Skytthe, Axel; Hjelmborg, Jacob V B; Möller, Sören; Christensen, Kaare

2017-02-01

To investigate the twin testosterone transfer (TTT) hypothesis by comparing early-life mortality risks of opposite-sex (OS) and same-sex (SS) twins during the first 15 years of life. We performed a population-based cohort study to compare mortality in OS and SS twins. We included 68,629 live-born Danish twins from 1973 to 2009 identified through the Danish Twin Registry and performed piecewise stratified Cox regression and log-binomial regression. Among 1933 deaths, we found significantly higher mortality for twin boys than for twin girls. For both sexes, OS twins had lower mortality than SS twins; the difference persisted for the first year of life for boys and for the first week of life for girls. Although the mortality risk for OS boys was in the expected direction according to the TTT hypothesis, the results for OS girls pointed in the opposite direction, providing no clear evidence for the TTT hypothesis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A hybrid inventory management system respondingto regular demand and surge demand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mohammad S. Roni; Mingzhou Jin; Sandra D. Eksioglu

2014-06-01

This paper proposes a hybrid policy for a stochastic inventory system facing regular demand and surge demand. The combination of two different demand patterns can be observed in many areas, such as healthcare inventory and humanitarian supply chain management. The surge demand has a lower arrival rate but higher demand volume per arrival. The solution approach proposed in this paper incorporates the level crossing method and mixed integer programming technique to optimize the hybrid inventory policy with both regular orders and emergency orders. The level crossing method is applied to obtain the equilibrium distributions of inventory levels under a givenmore » policy. The model is further transformed into a mixed integer program to identify an optimal hybrid policy. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the impact of parameters on the optimal inventory policy and minimum cost. Numerical results clearly show the benefit of using the proposed hybrid inventory model. The model and solution approach could help healthcare providers or humanitarian logistics providers in managing their emergency supplies in responding to surge demands.« less

Clinical and demographic risk factors associated with mortality during early adulthood in a population-based cohort of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Cooper, M N; de Klerk, N H; Jones, T W; Davis, E A

2014-12-01

To calculate standardized mortality ratios and to assess the association between paediatric clinical factors and higher risk of mortality during early adulthood in a population-based cohort of subjects with Type 1 diabetes. Subjects with Type 1 diabetes were identified through the Western Australian Children's Diabetes Database and clinical data for those who reached 18 years of age (n = 1309) were extracted. An age- and sex-matched (without diabetes) comparison cohort (n = 6451) was obtained from the birth registry. Mortality records were obtained from the death registry. Participants were followed up until 31 January 2012. Associations of clinical factors (from clinic visits before 18 years of age) with mortality were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. The standardized mortality ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.7 (95% CI 0.7-3.3) for male and 10.1 (95% CI 5.2-17.7) for female subjects with Type 1 diabetes (median age at end of study 25.6 years). The adjusted hazard ratio was 1.5 (95% CI 1.1-2.1) for a 1% increase in mean paediatric HbA1c level, 3.8 (95% CI 0.9-15.3) for four episodes of severe hypoglycaemia relative to zero episodes, and 6.21 (95% CI 1.4-28.4) for a low-level socio-economic background relative to a high-level background. People with childhood-onset Type 1 diabetes have higher mortality rates in early adulthood. At particularly high risk are women, those with a history of poor HbA1c levels, those with recurrent severe hypoglycaemia during paediatric management, and those from a low socio-economic background. These groups may benefit from intensified management during transition from paediatric to adult care facilities. © 2014 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2014 Diabetes UK.

A probabilistic storm surge risk model for the German North Sea and Baltic Sea coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabbert, Jan-Henrik; Reiner, Andreas; Deepen, Jan; Rodda, Harvey; Mai, Stephan; Pfeifer, Dietmar

2010-05-01

The German North Sea coast is highly exposed to storm surges. Due to its concave bay-like shape mainly orientated to the North-West, cyclones from Western, North-Western and Northern directions together with astronomical tide cause storm surges accumulating the water in the German bight. Due to the existence of widespread low-lying areas (below 5m above mean sea level) behind the defenses, large areas including large economic values are exposed to coastal flooding including cities like Hamburg or Bremen. The occurrence of extreme storm surges in the past like e.g. in 1962 taking about 300 lives and causing widespread flooding and 1976 raised the awareness and led to a redesign of the coastal defenses which provide a good level of protection for today's conditions. Never the less the risk of flooding exists. Moreover an amplification of storm surge risk can be expected under the influence of climate change. The Baltic Sea coast is also exposed to storm surges, which are caused by other meteorological patterns. The influence of the astronomical tide is quite low instead high water levels are induced by strong winds only. Since the exceptional extreme event in 1872 storm surge hazard has been more or less forgotten. Although such an event is very unlikely to happen, it is not impossible. Storm surge risk is currently (almost) non-insurable in Germany. The potential risk is difficult to quantify as there are almost no historical losses available. Also premiums are difficult to assess. Therefore a new storm surge risk model is being developed to provide a basis for a probabilistic quantification of potential losses from coastal inundation. The model is funded by the GDV (German Insurance Association) and is planned to be used within the German insurance sector. Results might be used for a discussion of insurance cover for storm surge. The model consists of a probabilistic event driven hazard and a vulnerability module, furthermore an exposure interface and a financial

Impact of hydrogeological factors on groundwater salinization due to ocean-surge inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jie; Zhang, Huichen; Yu, Xuan; Graf, Thomas; Michael, Holly A.

2018-01-01

Ocean surges cause seawater inundation of coastal inland areas. Subsequently, seawater infiltrates into coastal aquifers and threatens the fresh groundwater resource. The severity of resulting salinization can be affected by hydrogeological factors including aquifer properties and hydrologic conditions, however, little research has been done to assess these effects. To understand the impacts of hydrogeological factors on groundwater salinization, we numerically simulated an ocean-surge inundation event on a two-dimensional conceptual coastal aquifer using a coupled surface-subsurface approach. We varied model permeability (including anisotropy), inland hydraulic gradient, and recharge rate. Three salinization-assessment indicators were developed, based on flushing time, depth of salt penetration, and a combination of the two, weighted flushing time, with which the impact of hydrogeological factors on groundwater vulnerability to salinization were quantitatively assessed. The vulnerability of coastal aquifers increases with increasing isotropic permeability. Low horizontal permeability (kx) and high vertical permeability (kz) lead to high aquifer vulnerability, and high kx and low kz lead to low aquifer vulnerability. Vulnerability decreases with increasing groundwater hydraulic gradient and increasing recharge rate. Additionally, coastal aquifers with a low recharge rate (R ≤ 300 mm yr-1) may be highly vulnerable to ocean-surge inundation. This study shows how the newly introduced indicators can be used to quantitatively assess coastal aquifer vulnerability. The results are important for global vulnerability assessment of coastal aquifers to ocean-surge inundation.

Surge Block Method for Controlling Well Clogging and Sampling Sediment during Bioremediation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Wei-min; Watson, David B; Luo, Jian

2013-01-01

A surge block treatment method (i.e. inserting a solid rod plunger with a flat seal that closely fits the casing interior into a well and stocking it up and down) was performed for the rehabilitation of wells clogged with biomass and for the collection of time series sediment samples during in situ bioremediation tests for U(VI) immobilization at a the U.S. Department of Energy site in Oak Ridge, TN. The clogging caused by biomass growth had been controlled by using routine surge block treatment for18 times over a nearly four year test period. The treatment frequency was dependent of themore » dosage of electron donor injection and microbial community developed in the subsurface. Hydraulic tests showed that the apparent aquifer transmissivity at a clogged well with an inner diameter (ID) of 10.16 cm was increased by 8 13 times after the rehabilitation, indicating the effectiveness of the rehabilitation. Simultaneously with the rehabilitation, the surge block method was successfully used for collecting time series sediment samples composed of fine particles (clay and silt) from wells with ID 1.9 10.16 cm for the analysis of mineralogical and geochemical composition and microbial community during the same period. Our results demonstrated that the surge block method provided a cost-effective approach for both well rehabilitation and frequent solid sampling at the same location.« less

Surge-Inception Study in a Two-Spool Turbojet Engine. Revised

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wallner, Lewis E.; Lubick, Robert J.; Saari, Martin J.

1957-01-01

A two-spool turbojet engine was operated in the Lewis altitude wind tunnel to study the inception of compressor surge. In addition to the usual steady-state pressure and temperature measurements, the compressors were extensively instrumented with fast-response interstage pressure transducers. Thus it was possible to obtain maps for both compressors, pressure oscillations during rotating stall, effects of stall on efficiency, and stage-loading curves. In addition, with the transient measurements, it was possible to record interstage pressures and then compute stage performance during accelerations to the stall limit. Rotating stall was found to exist at low speeds in the outer spool. Although the stall arose from poor flow conditions at the inlet-stage blade tips, the low-energy air moved through the machine from the tip at the inlet to the outer spool to the hub at the inlet to the inner spool. This tip stall ultimately resulted in compressor surge in the mid-speed region, and necessitated inter-compressor air bleed. Interstage pressure measurements during acceleration to the compressor stall limit indicated that rotating stall was not a necessary condition for compressor surge and that, at the critical stall point, the circumferential interstage pressure distribution was uniform. The exit-stage group of the inner spool was first t o stall; then, the stages upstream stalled in succession until the inlet stage of the outer spool was stalled. With a sufficiently high fuel rate, the process repeated with a cycle time of about 0.1 second. It was possible to construct reproducible stage stall lines as a function of compressor speed from the stage stall points of several such compressor surges. This transient stall line was checked by computing the stall line from a steady-state stage-loading curve. Good agreement between the stage stall lines was obtained by these two methods.

Surge-like Oscillations above Sunspot Light Bridges Driven by Magnetoacoustic Shocks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jingwen; Tian, Hui; He, Jiansen

2017-03-20

High-resolution observations of the solar chromosphere and transition region often reveal surge-like oscillatory activities above sunspot light bridges (LBs). These oscillations are often interpreted as intermittent plasma jets produced by quasi-periodic magnetic reconnection. We have analyzed the oscillations above an LB in a sunspot using data taken by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph . The chromospheric 2796 Å images show surge-like activities above the entire LB at any time, forming an oscillating wall. Within the wall we often see that the core of the Mg ii k 2796.35 Å line first experiences a large blueshift, and then gradually decreases tomore » zero shift before increasing to a redshift of comparable magnitude. Such a behavior suggests that the oscillations are highly nonlinear and likely related to shocks. In the 1400 Å passband, which samples emission mainly from the Si iv ion, the most prominent feature is a bright oscillatory front ahead of the surges. We find a positive correlation between the acceleration and maximum velocity of the moving front, which is consistent with numerical simulations of upward propagating slow-mode shock waves. The Si iv 1402.77 Å line profile is generally enhanced and broadened in the bright front, which might be caused by turbulence generated through compression or by the shocks. These results, together with the fact that the oscillation period stays almost unchanged over a long duration, lead us to propose that the surge-like oscillations above LBs are caused by shocked p-mode waves leaked from the underlying photosphere.« less

Modeling the Origin and Possible Control of the Wealth Inequality Surge

PubMed Central

Berman, Yonatan; Shapira, Yoash; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

2015-01-01

The rapid increase of wealth inequality in the past few decades is a most disturbing social and economic issue of our time. In order to control, and even reverse that surge, its origin and underlying mechanisms should be revealed. One of the challenges in studying these mechanisms is to incorporate realistic individual dynamics in the population level in a self-consistent manner. Our theoretical approach meets the challenge by using interacting multi-agent master-equations to model the dynamics of wealth inequality. The model is solved using stochastic multi-agent iterated maps. Taking into account growth rate, return on capital, private savings and economic mobility, we were able to capture the historical dynamics of wealth inequality in the United States during the course of the 20th century. We show that the fraction of capital income in the national income and the fraction of private savings are the critical factors that govern the wealth inequality dynamics. In addition, we found that economic mobility plays a crucial role in wealth accumulation. Notably, we found that the major decrease in private savings since the 1980s could be associated primarily with the recent surge in wealth inequality and if nothing changes in this respect we predict further increase in wealth inequality in the future. However, the 2007–08 financial crisis brought an opportunity to restrain the wealth inequality surge by increasing private savings. If this trend continues, it may lead to prevention, and even reversing, of the ongoing inequality surge. PMID:26107388

Modeling the Origin and Possible Control of the Wealth Inequality Surge.

PubMed

Berman, Yonatan; Shapira, Yoash; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

2015-01-01

The rapid increase of wealth inequality in the past few decades is a most disturbing social and economic issue of our time. In order to control, and even reverse that surge, its origin and underlying mechanisms should be revealed. One of the challenges in studying these mechanisms is to incorporate realistic individual dynamics in the population level in a self-consistent manner. Our theoretical approach meets the challenge by using interacting multi-agent master-equations to model the dynamics of wealth inequality. The model is solved using stochastic multi-agent iterated maps. Taking into account growth rate, return on capital, private savings and economic mobility, we were able to capture the historical dynamics of wealth inequality in the United States during the course of the 20th century. We show that the fraction of capital income in the national income and the fraction of private savings are the critical factors that govern the wealth inequality dynamics. In addition, we found that economic mobility plays a crucial role in wealth accumulation. Notably, we found that the major decrease in private savings since the 1980s could be associated primarily with the recent surge in wealth inequality and if nothing changes in this respect we predict further increase in wealth inequality in the future. However, the 2007-08 financial crisis brought an opportunity to restrain the wealth inequality surge by increasing private savings. If this trend continues, it may lead to prevention, and even reversing, of the ongoing inequality surge.

Assessment of the Great Lakes Marine Renewable Energy Resources: Characterizing Lake Erie Surge, Seiche and Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farhadzadeh, A.; Hashemi, M. R.

2016-02-01

Lake Erie, the fourth largest in surface area, smallest in volume and shallowest among the Great Lakes is approximately 400 km long and 90 km wide. Short term lake level variations are due to storm surge generated by high winds and moving pressure systems over the lake mainly in the southwest-northeast direction, along the lakes longitudinal axis. The historical wave data from three active offshore buoys shows that significant wave height can exceed 5 m in the eastern and central basins. The long-term lake level data show that storm surge can reach up to 3 m in eastern Lake Erie. Owing its shallow depth, Lake Erie frequently experiences seiching motions, the low frequency oscillations that are initiated by storm surge. The seiches whose first mode of oscillations has a period of nearly 14.2 hours can last from several hours to days. In this study, the Lake Erie potential for power generation, primarily using storm surge and seiche and also waves are assessed. Given the cyclic lake level variations due to storm-induced seiching, a concept similar to that of tidal range development is utilized to assess the potential of storm surge and seiche energy harvesting mechanisms for power generation. In addition, wave energy resources of the Lake is characterized -. To achieve these objectives, the following steps are taken : (1) Frequency of occurrence for extreme storm surge and wave events is determined using extreme value analysis such as Peak-Over-Threshold method for the long-term water level and wave data; (2) Spatial and temporal variations of wave height, storm surge and seiche are characterized. The characterization is carried out using the wave and storm surge outputs from numerical simulation of a number of historical extreme events. The coupled ADCIRC and SWAN model is utilized for the modeling; (3) Assessment of the potentials for marine renewable power generation in Lake Erie is made. The approach can be extended to the other lakes in the Great Lakes region.

Association of morning blood pressure surge with carotid intima-media thickness and cardiac dysfunction in patients with cardiac syndrome-X.

PubMed

Mahfouz, Ragab A; Goda, Mohammad; Galal, Islam; Ghareb, Mohamed S

2018-05-23

Background & hypothesis: We hypothesized that exaggerated morning blood pressure surge, may contribute in cardiac dysfunction and arterial stiffness in patients with cardiac syndrome X. Thus we investigated the impact of morning blood pressure surge on cardiac function and carotid intima-media thickness in subjects with cardiac syndrome X. We studied patients with cardiac syndrome X using ambulatory blood pressure monitoring and investigated the association of morning blood pressure surge with carotid intima thickness, left atrial volume index and left ventricular filling (E/e'). Seventy patients with cardiac syndrome X were enrolled for the study and compared with 70 age and sex matched controls. Patients with cardiac syndrome X were stratified based on the systolic morning blood pressure surge value of control subjects to patients with exaggerated blood pressure surge (n = 42) and those with normal morning blood pressure surge (n = 28). Basal heart rate (p < .05), high sensitive C-reactive protein (p < .01), left atrial volume index (p < .01), E/e' (p < .01); carotid intima-media thickness (p < .001) and percentage of detected plaque (p < .005) were significantly higher in patients with exaggerated morning blood pressure surge group than those with morning blood pressure surge group. Morning blood pressure surge was significantly correlated with carotid intima-media thickness, high sensitive C-reactive protein, left atrial volume index and E/e' ratio in patients with cardiac syndrome X. In multivariate analysis, exaggerated morning blood pressure surge was the only independent predictor of increased carotid intima-media thickness (OR = 2.379; p < .001), and diastolic dysfunction (OR = 2.464; p < .001) in patients with cardiac syndrome X. Our data suggest that excessive morning blood pressure surge is an independent predictor for arterial stiffness and diastolic dysfunction in patients with cardiac syndrome X.

Awareness that early cancer lump is painless could decrease breast cancer mortality in developing countries.

PubMed

Garg, Pankaj

2016-06-10

There are several factors which contribute to patients' reporting late to healthcare facility even after detecting the breast lump (patient delay). Amongst these, one of the important factors in low- and middle-income countries is lack of awareness that early cancer lump is painless (ECLIPs). Pain is often taken as a danger sign and absence of pain is often not taken seriously. The studies have shown that up to 98% of women in low-income countries are unaware that a painless lump could be a warning sign of early breast cancer. This fact is significant because this could be one of the prime reasons for the women having discovered a painless lump in the breast, accidentally or by breast self-examination, presume it to be harmless and don't report early to health care facility. Therefore, creating awareness about ECLIPs could be an effective strategy to reduce mortality due to breast cancer in low- and middle-income countries. Moreover, unlike modifying risk factors which requires long term behavior modification, creating awareness about ECLIPs is easy and cost effective.

Liftoff of the 18 May 1980 surge of Mount St. Helens (USA) and the deposits left behind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, James E.; Andrews, Benjamin J.; Dennen, Robert

2017-01-01

The distance that ground-hugging pyroclastic density currents travel is limited partly by when they reverse buoyancy and liftoff into the atmosphere. It is not clear, however, what deposits are left behind by lofting flows. One current that was seen to liftoff was the surge erupted from Mount St. Helens on the morning of 18 May 1980. Before lofting, it had leveled a large area of thick forest (the blowdown zone). The outer edge of the devastated area—where trees were scorched but left standing (the scorched zone)—is where the surge is thought to have lifted off. Deposits in the outer parts of the blowdown and in the scorched zone were examined at 32 sites. The important finding is that the laterally moving surge traveled through the scorched zone, and hence, the change in tree damage does not mark the runout distance of the surge. Buoyancy reversal and liftoff are thus not preserved in the deposits where the surge lofted upwards. We propose, based on interpretation of eyewitness accounts and the impacts of the surge on trees and vehicles, that the surge consisted of a faster, dilute "overcurrent" and a slower "undercurrent," where most of the mass (and heat) was retained. Reasonable estimates for flow density and velocity show that dynamic pressure of the surge (i.e., its ability to topple trees) peaked near the base of the overcurrent. We propose that where the overcurrent began to liftoff, the height of peak dynamic pressure rose above the trees and stopped toppling them. The slower undercurrent continued forward, however, scorching trees, but lacked the dynamic pressure needed to topple them. Grain-size variations argue that it slowed from ˜30 m s-1 when it entered the scorched zone to ˜3 m s-1 at the far end.

RETRACTED: Effect of early versus late or no tracheostomy on mortality of critically ill patients receiving mechanical ventilation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Siempos, Ilias I; Ntaidou, Theodora K; Filippidis, Filippos T; Choi, Augustine M K

2014-06-26

Delay of tracheostomy for roughly 2 weeks after translaryngeal intubation of critically ill patients is the presently recommended practice and is supported by findings from large trials. However, these trials were suboptimally powered to detect small but clinically important effects on mortality. We aimed to assess the mortality benefit of early versus late or no tracheostomy in critically ill patients who need mechanical ventilation. We systematically searched PubMed, CINAHL, Embase, Web of Science, DOAJ, the Cochrane Library, references of relevant articles, scientific conference proceedings, and grey literature up to Aug 31, 2013, to identify randomised controlled trials comparing early tracheostomy (done within 1 week after translaryngeal intubation) with late (done any time after the first week of mechanical ventilation) or no tracheostomy and reporting on mortality or incidence of pneumonia in critically ill patients under mechanical ventilation. Our primary outcomes were all-cause mortality during the stay in the intensive-care unit and incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia. We calculated pooled odds ratios (OR), pooled risk ratios (RR), and 95% CIs with a random-effects model. All but complications analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. Analyses of 13 trials (2434 patients, 800 deaths) showed that all-cause mortality in the intensive-care unit was significantly lower in patients assigned to the early versus the late or no tracheostomy group (OR 0·72, 95% CI 0·53-0·98; p=0·04). This finding represents an 18% reduction in the relative risk of death, translating to a 5% absolute improvement in survival (from 65% to 70%). This result persisted when we considered only trials with a low risk of bias (663 deaths; OR 0·68, 95% CI 0·49-0·95; p=0·02; eight trials with 1934 patients). There was no evidence of a difference between the compared groups for 1-year mortality (788 deaths; RR 0·93, 95% CI 0·85-1·02; p=0·14; three trials with

InSAR Observations and Finite Element Modeling of Crustal Deformation Around a Surging Glacier, Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spaans, K.; Auriac, A.; Sigmundsson, F.; Hooper, A. J.; Bjornsson, H.; Pálsson, F.; Pinel, V.; Feigl, K. L.

2014-12-01

Icelandic ice caps, covering ~11% of the country, are known to be surging glaciers. Such process implies an important local crustal subsidence due to the large ice mass being transported to the ice edge during the surge in a few months only. In 1993-1995, a glacial surge occurred at four neighboring outlet glaciers in the southwestern part of Vatnajökull ice cap, the largest ice cap in Iceland. We estimated that ~16±1 km3 of ice have been moved during this event while the fronts of some of the outlet glaciers advanced by ~1 km.Surface deformation associated with this surge has been surveyed using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) acquisitions from 1992-2002, providing high resolution ground observations of the study area. The data show about 75 mm subsidence at the ice edge of the outlet glaciers following the transport of the large volume of ice during the surge (Fig. 1). The long time span covered by the InSAR images enabled us to remove ~12 mm/yr of uplift occurring in this area due to glacial isostatic adjustment from the retreat of Vatnajökull ice cap since the end of the Little Ice Age in Iceland. We then used finite element modeling to investigate the elastic Earth response to the surge, as well as confirm that no significant viscoelastic deformation occurred as a consequence of the surge. A statistical approach based on Bayes' rule was used to compare the models to the observations and obtain an estimate of the Young's modulus (E) and Poisson's ratio (v) in Iceland. The best-fitting models are those using a one-kilometer thick top layer with v=0.17 and E between 12.9-15.3 GPa underlain by a layer with v=0.25 and E from 67.3 to 81.9 GPa. Results demonstrate that InSAR data and finite element models can be used successfully to reproduce crustal deformation induced by ice mass variations at Icelandic ice caps.Fig. 1: Interferograms spanning 1993 July 31 to 1995 June 19, showing the surge at Tungnaárjökull (Tu.), Skaftárjökull (Sk.) and S�

Population vulnerability to storm surge flooding in coastal Virginia, USA.

PubMed

Liu, Hua; Behr, Joshua G; Diaz, Rafael

2016-07-01

This study aims to assess the vulnerability of populations to storm surge flooding in 12 coastal localities of Virginia, USA. Population vulnerability is assessed by way of 3 physical factors (elevation, slope, and storm surge category), 3 built-up components (road availability, access to hospitals, and access to shelters), and 3 household conditions (storm preparedness, financial constraints to recovering from severe weather events, and health fragility). Fuzzy analysis is used to generate maps illustrating variation in several types of population vulnerability across the region. When considering physical factors and household conditions, the most vulnerable neighborhoods to sea level rise and storm surge flooding are largely found in urban areas. However, when considering access to critical infrastructure, we find rural residents to be more vulnerable than nonrural residents. These detailed assessments can inform both local and state governments in catastrophic planning. In addition, the methodology may be generalized to assess vulnerability in other coastal corridors and communities. The originality is highlighted by evaluating socioeconomic conditions at refined scale, incorporating a broader range of human perceptions and predispositions, and employing a geoinformatics approach combining physical, built-up, and socioeconomic conditions for population vulnerability assessment. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:500-509. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

30 CFR 77.209 - Surge and storage piles.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COAL MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH MANDATORY SAFETY STANDARDS, SURFACE COAL MINES AND SURFACE WORK AREAS OF UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Surface... a reclaiming area or in any other area at or near a surge or storage pile where the reclaiming...

Simulation of the westward traveling surge and Pi 2 pulsations during substorms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kan, J. R.; Sun, W.

1985-01-01

The westward traveling surge and the Pi2 pulsations are simulated as a consequence of an enhanced magnetospheric convection in a model of magnetosphere coupling. The coupling is characterized by the bouncing of Alfven waves launched by the enhanced convection. The reflection of Alfven waves from the ionosphere is treated in which the height-integrated conductivity is allowed to be highly nonuniform and fully anisotropic. The reflection of Alfven waves from the magnetosphere is characterized by the coefficient Rm, depending on whether the field lines are open or closed. The conductivity in the model is self-consistently enhanced with increasing upward field-aligned current density. The results of the simulation, including the convection pattern, the electrojets, the field-aligned current, the conductivity enhancement, the oscillation of the westward electrojet, and the average speed of the westward surge are in reasonable agreement with the features of the westward traveling surge and the Pi 2 pulsations observed during substorms.

The effects of climate change on storm surges around the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Lowe, J A; Gregory, J M

2005-06-15

Coastal flooding is often caused by extreme events, such as storm surges. In this study, improved physical models have been used to simulate the climate system and storm surges, and to predict the effect of increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases on the surges. In agreement with previous studies, this work indicates that the changes in atmospheric storminess and the higher time-average sea-level predicted for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to changes in the height of water levels measured relative to the present day tide. However, the details of these projections differ somewhat from earlier assessments. Uncertainty in projections of future extreme water levels arise from uncertainty in the amount and timing of future greenhouse gas emissions, uncertainty in the physical models used to simulate the climate system and from the natural variability of the system. The total uncertainty has not yet been reliably quantified and achieving this should be a priority for future research.

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.G.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.; Bauer, D.H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir-Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

Observation of an Opposition Surge on Triton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herbert, B. D.; Buratti, B. J.; Schmidt, B.; Bauer, J. M.; Hicks, M. D.

2004-11-01

Ground-based observations of Neptune's moon Triton taken during the summers of 2000, 2003, and 2004 show a rotational light curve with a large amplitude. This is in stark contrast to data from the 1989 Voyager II flyby, which implies significant changes have occurred on Triton's surface since that time. The light curve has two notable regions, one that is significantly brighter than was observed in 1989 and one that is significantly darker. Data were also taken at a broad range of solar phase angles, allowing for a comprehensive study of the effects of phase on Triton's brightness. Analysis of the phase curve yields a solar phase coefficient close to zero for phases greater than 0.08 degrees, a number in close agreement with past studies that focused on higher phase angles. We also report a previously unrecognized opposition surge. Preliminary analysis suggests that the surge has different characteristics in the dark and bright regions currently visible on Triton, implying a non-homogenous regolith. Funding for this project was provided in part by the New York Space Grant Consortium and the NASA Undergraduate Student Research Program.

East China Sea Storm Surge Modeling and Visualization System: the Typhoon Soulik case.

PubMed

Deng, Zengan; Zhang, Feng; Kang, Linchong; Jiang, Xiaoyi; Jin, Jiye; Wang, Wei

2014-01-01

East China Sea (ECS) Storm Surge Modeling System (ESSMS) is developed based on Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Case simulation is performed on the Typhoon Soulik, which landed on the coastal region of Fujian Province, China, at 6 pm of July 13, 2013. Modeling results show that the maximum tide level happened at 6 pm, which was also the landing time of Soulik. This accordance may lead to significant storm surge and water level rise in the coastal region. The water level variation induced by high winds of Soulik ranges from -0.1 to 0.15 m. Water level generally increases near the landing place, in particular on the left hand side of the typhoon track. It is calculated that 0.15 m water level rise in this region can cause a submerge increase of ~0.2 km(2), which could be catastrophic to the coastal environment and the living. Additionally, a Globe Visualization System (GVS) is realized on the basis of World Wind to better provide users with the typhoon/storm surge information. The main functions of GVS include data indexing, browsing, analyzing, and visualization. GVS is capable of facilitating the precaution and mitigation of typhoon/storm surge in ESC in combination with ESSMS.

An Investigation of Surge in a High-Speed Centrifugal Compressor Using Digital PIV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wernet, Mark P.; Bright, Michelle M.; Skoch, Gary J.

2002-01-01

Compressor stall is a catastrophic breakdown of the flow in a compressor, which can lead to a loss of engine power, large pressure transients in the inlet/nacelle and engine flameout. The implementation of active or passive strategies for controlling rotating stall and surge can significantly extend the stable operating range of a compressor without substantially sacrificing performance. It is crucial to identify the dynamic changes occurring in the flow field prior to rotating stall and surge in order to successfully control these events. Generally, pressure transducer measurements are made to capture the transient response of a compressor prior to rotating stall. In this investigation, Digital Particle Imaging Velocimetry (DPIV) is used in conjunction with dynamic pressure transducers to simultaneously capture transient velocity and pressure measurements in the non-stationary flow field during compressor surge. DPIV is an instantaneous, planar measurement technique which is ideally suited for studying transient flow phenomena in high speed turbomachinery and has been used previously to successfully map the stable operating point flow field in the diffuser of a high speed centrifugal compressor. Through the acquisition of both DPIV images and transient pressure data, the time evolution of the unsteady flow during surge is revealed.

Electric Field Simulation of Surge Capacitors with Typical Defects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chenmeng; Mao, Yuxiang; Xie, Shijun; Zhang, Yu

2018-03-01

The electric field of power capacitors with different typical defects in DC working condition and impulse oscillation working condition is studied in this paper. According to the type and location of defects and considering the influence of space charge, two-dimensional models of surge capacitors with different typical defects are simulated based on ANSYS. The distribution of the electric field inside the capacitor is analyzed, and the concentration of electric field and its influence on the insulation performance are obtained. The results show that the type of defects, the location of defects and the space charge all affect the electric field distribution inside the capacitor in varying degrees. Especially the electric field distortion in the local area such as sharp corners and burrs is relatively larger, which increases the probability of partial discharge inside the surge capacitor.

Predicting typhoon-induced storm surge tide with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and artificial neural network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W.-B.; Liu, W.-C.; Hsu, M.-H.

2012-12-01

Precise predictions of storm surges during typhoon events have the necessity for disaster prevention in coastal seas. This paper explores an artificial neural network (ANN) model, including the back propagation neural network (BPNN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) algorithms used to correct poor calculations with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model in predicting storm surge height during typhoon events. The two-dimensional model has a fine horizontal resolution and considers the interaction between storm surges and astronomical tides, which can be applied for describing the complicated physical properties of storm surges along the east coast of Taiwan. The model is driven by the tidal elevation at the open boundaries using a global ocean tidal model and is forced by the meteorological conditions using a cyclone model. The simulated results of the hydrodynamic model indicate that this model fails to predict storm surge height during the model calibration and verification phases as typhoons approached the east coast of Taiwan. The BPNN model can reproduce the astronomical tide level but fails to modify the prediction of the storm surge tide level. The ANFIS model satisfactorily predicts both the astronomical tide level and the storm surge height during the training and verification phases and exhibits the lowest values of mean absolute error and root-mean-square error compared to the simulated results at the different stations using the hydrodynamic model and the BPNN model. Comparison results showed that the ANFIS techniques could be successfully applied in predicting water levels along the east coastal of Taiwan during typhoon events.

[The role of patient flow and surge capacity for in-hospital response in mass casualty events].

PubMed

Sefrin, Peter; Kuhnigk, Herbert

2008-03-01

Mass casualty events make demands on emergency services and disaster control. However, optimized in- hospital response defines the quality of definitive care. Therefore, German federal law governs the role of hospitals in mass casualty incidents. In hospital casualty surge is depending on resources that have to be expanded with a practicable alarm plan. Thus, in-hospital mass casualty management planning is recommended to be organized by specialized persons. To minimise inhospital patient overflow casualty surge principles have to be implemented in both, pre-hospital and in-hospital disaster planning. World soccer championship 2006 facilitated the initiation of surge and damage control principles in in-hospital disaster planning strategies for German hospitals. The presented concept of strict control of in-hospital patient flow using surge principles minimises the risk of in-hospital breakdown and increases definitive hospital treatment capacity in mass casualty incidents.

From cyclic ice streaming to Heinrich-like events: the grow-and-surge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldmann, Johannes; Levermann, Anders

2017-08-01

Here we report on a cyclic, physical ice-discharge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, simulating the flow of a three-dimensional, inherently buttressed ice-sheet-shelf system which periodically surges on a millennial timescale. The thermomechanically coupled model on 1 km horizontal resolution includes an enthalpy-based formulation of the thermodynamics, a nonlinear stress-balance-based sliding law and a very simple subglacial hydrology. The simulated unforced surging is characterized by rapid ice streaming through a bed trough, resulting in abrupt discharge of ice across the grounding line which is eventually calved into the ocean. We visualize the central feedbacks that dominate the subsequent phases of ice buildup, surge and stabilization which emerge from the interaction between ice dynamics, thermodynamics and the subglacial till layer. Results from the variation of surface mass balance and basal roughness suggest that ice sheets of medium thickness may be more susceptible to surging than relatively thin or thick ones for which the surge feedback loop is damped. We also investigate the influence of different basal sliding laws (ranging from purely plastic to nonlinear to linear) on possible surging. The presented mechanisms underlying our simulations of self-maintained, periodic ice growth and destabilization may play a role in large-scale ice-sheet surging, such as the surging of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which is associated with Heinrich events, and ice-stream shutdown and reactivation, such as observed in the Siple Coast region of West Antarctica.

Active control of surge in centrifugal compressors using magnetic thrust bearing actuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanadgol, Dorsa

This research presents a new method for active surge control in centrifugal compressors with unshrouded impellers using a magnetic thrust bearing to modulate the impeller tip clearance. Magnetic bearings offer the potential for active control of flow instabilities. This capability is highly dependent on the sensitivity of the compressor characteristics to blade tip clearance. If the position of the shaft can be actuated with sufficient authority and speed, the induced pressure modulation makes control of surge promising. The active nature of the magnetic bearing system makes the real-time static and dynamic positioning of the rotor and therefore modulation of the impeller tip clearance possible. A theoretical model is first established that describes the sensitivity of the centrifugal compressor characteristic curve to tip clearance variations induced by axial motion of the rotor. Results from simulation of the nonlinear model for a single stage high-speed centrifugal compressor show that using the proposed control method, mass flow and pressure oscillations associated with compressor surge are quickly suppressed with acceptable tip clearance excursions, typically less than 20% of the available clearance. It is shown that it is possible to produce adequate axial excursions in the clearance between the impeller blades and the adjacent stationary shroud using a magnetic thrust bearing with practical levels of drive voltage. This surge control method would allow centrifugal compressors to reliably and safely operate with a wider range than is currently done in the field. The principal advantage of the proposed approach over conventional surge control methods lies in that, in machines already equipped with magnetic bearing, the method can potentially be implemented by simply modifying controller software. This dispenses with the need to introduce additional hardware, permitting adaptation of existing machinery at virtually no cost. In addition, since the controller is

Influence of Northeast Monsoon cold surges on air quality in Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfold, M. J.; Latif, M. T.; Samah, A. A.; Mead, M. I.; Harris, N. R. P.

2017-10-01

Ozone (O3) is an important ground-level pollutant. O3 levels and emissions of O3 precursors have increased significantly over recent decades in East Asia and export of this O3 eastward across the Pacific Ocean is well documented. Here we show that East Asian O3 is also transported southward to tropical Southeast (SE) Asia during the Northeast Monsoon (NEM) season (defined as November to February), and that this transport pathway is especially strong during 'cold surges'. Our analysis employs reanalysis data and measurements from surface sites in Peninsular Malaysia, both covering 2003-2012, along with trajectory calculations. Using a cold surge index (northerly winds at 925 hPa averaged over 105-110°E, 5°N) to define sub-seasonal strengthening of the NEM winds, we find the largest changes in a region covering much of the Indochinese Peninsula and surrounding seas. Here, the levels of O3 and another key pollutant, carbon monoxide, calculated by the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) Reanalysis are on average elevated by, respectively, >40% (∼15 ppb) and >60% (∼80 ppb) during cold surges. Further, in the broader region of SE Asia local afternoon exceedances of the World Health Organization's air quality guideline for O3 (100 μg m-3, or ∼50 ppb, averaged over 8 h) largely occur during these cold surges. Day-to-day variations in available O3 observations at surface sites on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia and in corresponding parts of the MACC Reanalysis are similar, and are clearly linked to cold surges. However, observed O3 levels are typically ∼10-20 ppb lower than the MACC Reanalysis. We show that these observations are also subject to influence from local urban pollution. In agreement with past work, we find year-to-year variations in cold surge activity related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this does not appear to be the dominant influence of ENSO on atmospheric composition in this region. Overall, our study

Neurokinin-3 Receptor Activation in the Retrochiasmatic Area is Essential for the Full Preovulatory LH Surge in Ewes

PubMed Central

Porter, Katrina L.; Hileman, Stanley M.; Hardy, Steven L.; Nestor, Casey C; Lehman, Michael N.; Goodman, Robert L.

2014-01-01

Neurokinin B (NKB) is essential for human reproduction and has been shown to stimulate LH secretion in several species, including sheep. Ewes express the neurokinin-3 receptor (NK3R) in the retrochiasmatic area (RCh) and there is one report that placement of senktide, an NK3R agonist, therein stimulates LH secretion that resembles an LH surge in ewes. In this study, we first confirmed that local administration of senktide to the RCh produced a surge-like increase in LH secretion, and then tested the effects of this agonist in two other areas implicated in the control of LH secretion and where NK3R is found in high abundance: the preoptic area (POA) and arcuate nucleus (ARC). Bilateral microimplants containing senktide induced a dramatic surge-like increase in LH when given in the POA similar to that seen with RCh treatment. In contrast, senktide treatment in the ARC resulted in a much smaller, but significant, increase in LH concentrations suggestive of an effect on tonic secretion. The possible role of POA and RCh NK3R activation in the LH surge was next tested by treating ewes with SB222200, an NK3R antagonist, in each area during an E2-induced LH surge. SB222200 in the RCh, but not in the POA, reduced LH surge amplitude by about 40% compared to controls, indicating that NK3R activation in the former region is essential for full expression of the preovulatory LH surge. Based on these data, we propose that NKB actions in the RCh are an important component of the preovulatory LH surge in ewes. PMID:25040132

Epidemiology and predictive factors for early and late mortality in Candida bloodstream infections: a population-based surveillance in Spain.

PubMed

Puig-Asensio, M; Padilla, B; Garnacho-Montero, J; Zaragoza, O; Aguado, J M; Zaragoza, R; Montejo, M; Muñoz, P; Ruiz-Camps, I; Cuenca-Estrella, M; Almirante, B

2014-04-01

A prospective, multicentre, population-based surveillance programme for Candida bloodstream infections was implemented in five metropolitan areas of Spain to determine its incidence and the prevalence of antifungal resistance, and to identify predictors of death. Between May 2010 and April 2011, Candida isolates were centralized to a reference laboratory for species identification by DNA sequencing and for susceptibility testing by EUCAST reference procedure. Prognostic factors associated with early (0-7 days) and late (8-30 days) death were analysed using logistic regression modelling. We detected 773 episodes: annual incidence of 8.1 cases/100 000 inhabitants, 0.89/1000 admissions and 1.36/10 000 patient-days. Highest incidence was found in infants younger than 1 year (96.4/100 000 inhabitants). Candida albicans was the predominant species (45.4%), followed by Candida parapsilosis (24.9%), Candida glabrata (13.4%) and Candida tropicalis (7.7%). Overall, 79% of Candida isolates were susceptible to fluconazole. Cumulative mortality at 7 and 30 days after the first episode of candidaemia was 12.8% and 30.6%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that therapeutic measures within the first 48 h may improve early mortality: antifungal treatment (OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.27-0.95) and central venous catheter removal (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.21-0.87). Predictors of late death included host factors (e.g. patients' comorbid status and signs of organ dysfunction), primary source (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.03-2.61), and severe sepsis or septic shock (OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.05-3.00). In Spain, the proportion of Candida isolates non-susceptible to fluconazole is higher than in previous reports. Early mortality may be improved with strict adherence to guidelines. © 2013 The Authors Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2013 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

Changes in the Earth's largest surge glacier system from satellite and airborne altimetry and imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trantow, T.; Herzfeld, U. C.

2015-12-01

The Bering-Bagley Glacier System (BBGS), Alaska, one of the largest ice systems outside of Greenland and Antarctica, has recently surged (2011-2013), providing a rare opportunity to study the surge phenomenon in a large and complex system. Understanding fast-flowing glaciers and accelerations in ice flow, of which surging is one type, is critical to understanding changes in the cryosphere and ultimately changes in sea level. It is important to distinguish between types of accelerations and their consequences, especially between reversible or quasi-cyclic and irreversible forms of glacial acceleration, but current icesheet models treat all accelerating ice identically. Additionally, the surge provides an exceptional opportunity to study the influence of surface roughness and water content on return signals of altimeter systems. In this presentation, we analyze radar and laser altimeter data from CryoSat-2, NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB), the ICESat Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS), ICESat-2's predecessor the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL), and airborne laser altimeter and imagery campaigns by our research group. These measurements are used to study elevation, elevation change and crevassing throughout the glacier system. Analysis of the imagery from our airborne campaigns provides comprehensive characterizations of the BBGS surface over the course of the surge. Results from the data analysis are compared to numerical modeling experiments.

A Two-Step Method to Select Major Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

2016-12-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of storm surge events along the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastlines. In an effort to evaluate the storm surge risk in coastal communities in this region, a stochastic catalog is developed by perturbing the historical storm seeds of European ETCs to account for 10,000 years of possible ETCs. Numerical simulation of the storm surge generated by the full 10,000-year stochastic catalog, however, is computationally expensive and may take several months to complete with available computational resources. A new statistical regression model is developed to select the major surge-generating events from the stochastic ETC catalog. This regression model is based on the maximum storm surge, obtained via numerical simulations using a calibrated version of the Delft3D-FM hydrodynamic model with a relatively coarse mesh, of 1750 historical ETC events that occurred over the past 38 years in Europe. These numerically-simulated surge values were regressed to the local sea level pressure and the U and V components of the wind field at the location of 196 tide gauge stations near the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastal areas. The regression model suggests that storm surge values in the area of interest are highly correlated to the U- and V-component of wind speed, as well as the sea level pressure. Based on these correlations, the regression model was then used to select surge-generating storms from the 10,000-year stochastic catalog. Results suggest that roughly 105,000 events out of 480,000 stochastic storms are surge-generating events and need to be considered for numerical simulation using a hydrodynamic model. The selected stochastic storms were then simulated in Delft3D-FM, and the final refinement of the storm population was performed based on return period analysis of the 1750 historical event simulations at each of the 196 tide gauges in preparation for Delft3D-FM fine mesh simulations.

Surge of Hispar Glacier, Pakistan, between 2013 and 2017 detected from remote sensing observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashid, Irfan; Abdullah, Tariq; Glasser, Neil F.; Naz, Heena; Romshoo, Shakil Ahmad

2018-02-01

This study analyses the behaviour of an actively surging glacier, Hispar, in Pakistan using remote sensing methods. We used 15 m panchromatic band of Landsat 8 OLI from 2013 to 2017 to assess the changes in glacier velocity, glacier geomorphology and supraglacial water bodies. For the velocity estimation, correlation image analysis (CIAS) was used, which is based on normalized cross-correlation (NCC) of satellite data. On-screen digitization was employed to quantify changes in the glacier geomorphology and dynamics of supraglacial water bodies on the glacier. Our velocity estimates indicate that the upper part of the glacier is presently undergoing an active surge which not only affects the debris distribution but also impacts the development of supraglacial water bodies. Velocities in the actively surging part of the main glacier trunk and its three tributaries reach up to 900 m yr- 1. The surge of Hispar also impacts the distribution of supraglacial debris causing folding of the medial moraines features present on the glacier surface. Changes in the number and size of supraglacial lakes and ponds were also observed during the observation period from 2013 to 2017.

Numerical simulation of MEMS-based blade load distribution control in centrifugal compressor surge suppression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beneda, Károly

2012-11-01

The utilization of turbomachines requires up-to-date technologies to ensure safe operation throughout the widest possible range that makes novel ideas necessary to cope with classic problems. One of the most dangerous instability in compression systems is surge that has to be suppressed before its onset to avoid structural damages as well as other adverse consequences in the system. As surge occurs at low delivered mass flow rates the conventional widely spread surge control is based on bypassing the unnecessary airflow back to the atmosphere. This method has been implemented on a large number of aircraft and provides a robust control on suppressing compressor surge while creating a significant efficiency loss. This paper deals with an idea that has been originally designed as a fixed geometry that could be realized using up-to-date MEMS technology resulting in moderate losses but comparable stability enhancement. Previously the author has established the one-dimensional mathematical model of the concept, but it is indispensable - before the real instrument can be developed - to carry out detailed numerical simulation of the device. The aim of the paper is to acquaint the efforts of this CFD simulation.

The Timing of Early Antibiotics and Hospital Mortality in Sepsis.

PubMed

Liu, Vincent X; Fielding-Singh, Vikram; Greene, John D; Baker, Jennifer M; Iwashyna, Theodore J; Bhattacharya, Jay; Escobar, Gabriel J

2017-10-01

Prior sepsis studies evaluating antibiotic timing have shown mixed results. To evaluate the association between antibiotic timing and mortality among patients with sepsis receiving antibiotics within 6 hours of emergency department registration. Retrospective study of 35,000 randomly selected inpatients with sepsis treated at 21 emergency departments between 2010 and 2013 in Northern California. The primary exposure was antibiotics given within 6 hours of emergency department registration. The primary outcome was adjusted in-hospital mortality. We used detailed physiologic data to quantify severity of illness within 1 hour of registration and logistic regression to estimate the odds of hospital mortality based on antibiotic timing and patient factors. The median time to antibiotic administration was 2.1 hours (interquartile range, 1.4-3.1 h). The adjusted odds ratio for hospital mortality based on each hour of delay in antibiotics after registration was 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.13) for each elapsed hour between registration and antibiotic administration. The increase in absolute mortality associated with an hour's delay in antibiotic administration was 0.3% (95% CI, 0.01-0.6%; P = 0.04) for sepsis, 0.4% (95% CI, 0.1-0.8%; P = 0.02) for severe sepsis, and 1.8% (95% CI, 0.8-3.0%; P = 0.001) for shock. In a large, contemporary, and multicenter sample of patients with sepsis in the emergency department, hourly delays in antibiotic administration were associated with increased odds of hospital mortality even among patients who received antibiotics within 6 hours. The odds increased within each sepsis severity strata, and the increased odds of mortality were greatest in septic shock.

N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) and mortality risk in early inflammatory polyarthritis: results from the Norfolk Arthritis Registry (NOAR)

PubMed Central

Mirjafari, Hoda; Welsh, Paul; Verstappen, Suzanne M M; Wilson, Paddy; Marshall, Tarnya; Edlin, Helena; Bunn, Diane; Chipping, Jacqueline; Lunt, Mark; Symmons, Deborah P M; Sattar, Naveed; Bruce, Ian N

2014-01-01

Background We measured N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP), a marker of cardiac dysfunction, in an inception cohort with early inflammatory polyarthritis (IP) and assessed its association with disease phenotype, cardiovascular disease (CVD), all-cause and CVD related mortality. Methods Subjects with early IP were recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register from January 2000 to December 2008 and followed up to death or until March 2010 including any data from the national death register. The associations of baseline NT-pro-BNP with IP related factors and CVD were assessed by linear regression. Cox proportional hazards models examined the independent association of baseline NT-pro-BNP with all-cause and CVD mortality. Results We studied 960 early IP subjects; 163 (17%) had prior CVD. 373 (39%) patients had a baseline NT-pro-BNP levels ≥100 pg/ml. NT-pro-BNP was associated with age, female gender, HAQ score, CRP, current smoking, history of hypertension, prior CVD and the presence of carotid plaque. 92 (10%) IP subjects died including 31 (3%) from CVD. In an age and gender adjusted analysis, having a raised NT-pro-BNP level (≥100 pg/ml) was associated with both all-cause and CVD mortality (adjusted HR (95% CI) 2.36 (1.42 to 3.94) and 3.40 (1.28 to 9.03), respectively). These findings were robust to adjustment for conventional CVD risk factors and prevalent CVD. Conclusions In early IP patients, elevated NT-pro-BNP is related to HAQ and CRP and predicts all-cause and CVD mortality independently of conventional CVD risk factors. Further study is required to identify whether NT-pro-BNP may be clinically useful in targeting intensive interventions to IP patients at greatest risk of CVD. PMID:23511225

Periodontitis and early mortality among adults treated with hemodialysis: a multinational propensity-matched cohort study.

PubMed

Ruospo, Marinella; Palmer, Suetonia C; Wong, Germaine; Craig, Jonathan C; Petruzzi, Massimo; De Benedittis, Michele; Ford, Pauline; Johnson, David W; Tonelli, Marcello; Natale, Patrizia; Saglimbene, Valeria; Pellegrini, Fabio; Celia, Eduardo; Gelfman, Ruben; Leal, Miguel R; Torok, Marietta; Stroumza, Paul; Bednarek-Skublewska, Anna; Dulawa, Jan; Frantzen, Luc; Del Castillo, Domingo; Schon, Staffan; Bernat, Amparo G; Hegbrant, Jorgen; Wollheim, Charlotta; Gargano, Letizia; Bots, Casper P; Strippoli, Giovanni Fm

2017-05-22

Periodontitis is associated with cardiovascular mortality in the general population and adults with chronic diseases. However, it is unclear whether periodontitis predicts survival in the setting of kidney failure. ORAL-D was a propensity matched analysis in 3338 dentate adults with end-stage kidney disease treated in a hemodialysis network in Europe and South America designed to examine the association between periodontitis and all-cause and cardiovascular-related mortality in people on long-term hemodialysis. Participants were matched 1:1 on their propensity score for moderate to severe periodontitis assessed using the World Health Organization Community Periodontal Index. A random-effects Cox proportional hazards model was fitted with shared frailty to account for clustering of mortality risk within countries. Among the 3338 dentate participants, 1355 (40.6%) had moderate to severe periodontitis at baseline. After using propensity score methods to generate a matched cohort of participants with periodontitis similar to those with none or mild periodontal disease, moderate to severe periodontitis was associated with a lower risk of all-cause (9.1 versus 13.0 per 100 person years, hazard ratio 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.61 to 0.90) and cardiovascular (4.3 versus 6.9 per 100 person years, hazard ratio 0.67, 0.51 to 0.88) mortality. These associations were not changed substantially when participants were limited to those with 12 or more natural teeth and when accounting for competing causes of cardiovascular death. In contrast to the general population, periodontitis does not appear to be associated with an increased risk of early death in adults treated with hemodialysis.

Monitoring Hurricane Rita Inland Storm Surge: Chapter 7J in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGee, Benton D.; Tollett, Roland W.; Goree, Burl B.

2007-01-01

Pressure transducers (sensors) are accurate, reliable, and cost-effective tools to measure and record the magnitude, extent, and timing of hurricane storm surge. Sensors record storm-surge peaks more accurately and reliably than do high-water marks. Data collected by sensors may be used in storm-surge models to estimate when, where, and to what degree stormsurge flooding will occur during future storm-surge events and to calibrate and verify stormsurge models, resulting in a better understanding of the dynamics of storm surge.

Remote Sensing Observations of Advancing and Surging Tidewater Glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNabb, R. W.; Kääb, A.; Nuth, C.; Girod, L.; Truffer, M.; Fahnestock, M. A.

2017-12-01

Progress has been made in understanding the glaciological frontiers of tidewater glacier dynamics and surge dynamics, though many aspects of these topics are not well-understood. Advances in the processing of digital elevation models (DEMs) from ASTER imagery, as well as the increased availability and temporal density of satellite images such as Landsat and the Sentinel missions, provide an unprecedented wealth of satellite data over glaciers, providing new opportunities to learn about these topics. As one of the largest glaciated regions in the world outside of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, glaciers in Alaska and adjacent regions in Canada have been highlighted for their elevated contributions to global sea level rise, through both high levels of melt and frontal ablation/calving from a large number of tidewater glaciers. The region is also home to a number of surging glaciers. We focus on several tidewater glaciers in the region, including Turner, Tsaa, Harvard, and Meares Glaciers. Turner Glacier is a surge-type tidewater glacier with a surge period of approximately eight years, while Tsaa Glacier is a tidwewater glacier that has shown rapid swings in terminus position on the order of a year. Harvard and Meares Glaciers have been steadily advancing since at least the mid-20th century, in contrast with neighboring glaciers that are retreating. Using a combination of ASTER, Landsat, and Sentinel data, we present and examine high-resolution time series of elevation, velocity, and terminus position for these glaciers, as well as updated estimates of volume change and frontal ablation rates, including on sub-annual time scales. Preliminary investigations of elevation change on Turner Glacier show that changes are most pronounced in the lower reaches of the glacier, below a prominent icefall approximately 15km from the head of the glacier. On Harvard and Meares Glaciers, elevation changes in the upper reaches of both glaciers have been generally small or

High Exercise Capacity Attenuates the Risk of Early Mortality After a First Myocardial Infarction: The Henry Ford Exercise Testing (FIT) Project.

PubMed

Shaya, Gabriel E; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Hung, Rupert K; Nasir, Khurram; Blumenthal, Roger S; Ehrman, Jonathan K; Keteyian, Steven J; Brawner, Clinton A; Qureshi, Waqas T; Blaha, Michael J

2016-02-01

To examine the effect of objectively measured exercise capacity (EC) on early mortality (EM) after a first myocardial infarction (MI). This retrospective cohort study included 2061 patients without a history of MI (mean age, 62±12 years; 38% [n=790] women; 56% [n=1153] white) who underwent clinical treadmill stress testing in the Henry Ford Health System from January 1, 1991, through May 31, 2009, and suffered MI during follow-up (MI event proportion, 3.4%; mean time from the exercise test to MI, 6.1±4.3 years). Exercise capacity was categorized on the basis of peak metabolic equivalents (METs) achieved: less than 6, 6 to 9, 10 to 11, and 12 or more METs. Early mortality was defined as all-cause mortality within 28, 90, or 365 days of MI. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess the effect of EC on the risk of mortality at each time point post-MI adjusting for baseline demographic characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors, medication use, indication for stress testing, and year of MI. The 28-day EM rate was 10.6% overall, and 13.9%, 10.7%, 6.9%, and 6.0% in the less than 6, 6 to 9, 10 to 11, and 12 or more METs categories, respectively (P<.001). Patients who died were more likely to be older, be less fit, be nonobese, have treated hypertension, and have a longer duration from baseline to incident MI (P<.05). Adjusted regression analyses revealed a decreased risk of EM with increasing EC categories. A 1-MET higher EC was associated with an 8% to 10% lower risk of mortality across all time points (28 days: odds ratio [OR], 0.92; 95% CI, 0.87-0.98; P=.006; 90 days: OR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.86-0.95; P<.001; 365 days: OR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.87-0.94; P<.001). Higher baseline EC was independently associated with a lower risk of early death after a first MI. Copyright © 2016 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using wind setdown and storm surge on Lake Erie to calibrate the air-sea drag coefficient.

PubMed

Drews, Carl