[Comparison of the present and previously used protocol of risk stratification in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia].

PubMed

Glodkowska, Eliza; Bialas, Agnieszka; Jackowska, Teresa

2007-01-01

Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) is one of the most common cancers in children. In Poland, since November 2002 a new protocol of risk stratification has been recommended for assessment of risk factors and for choosing therapy regimens. assessment of accuracy of protocol ALL-IC 2002 in comparison to previously used risk stratification protocols. ALL was diagnosed in 100 children (44 girls, 56 boys; 1-18 years of age) in the Department of Pediatric Hematology and Oncology, Warsaw Medical University, over the period from November 2002 to November 2006. According to the ALL-IC 2002 protocol the patients were divided into three risk groups: SR-standard, IR-intermediate and HR-high. The stratification was by age, leukocyte count, cytogenetic changes, early response to prednisone therapy and bone marrow remission. In the previously used risk stratification protocols-BFM-90, only hepatosplenomegaly and the number of blasts in peripheral blood (PB) were considered, and the patients were divided into three risk groups: low (LRG<0.8), medium (MRG) and high (HRG>1.2). out of the 100 patients qualified for treatment regimens according to the ALL-IC 2002 protocol, 97 entered remission, 11 died and 3 had a relapse. Under the ALL-IC 2002 protocol these children were stratified into the following groups: SR-31%, IR-44% and HR-25%. In the previously used stratification, there would be 26% children in low, 46% in the medium and 28% in the high risk group. According to the BFM-90 protocol 18/31 (58%) and 16/44 (36%) patients from the SR and IR groups respectively would be given more intensive treatment. On the other hand 11/44 (25%) and 14/25 (56%) patients from the IR and HR groups respectively would be given less intensive treatment. 1. ALL-IC 2002 protocol in comparison with the previously used protocol BFM-90, changes the qualification of children with ALL for the SR, IR and HR risk groups. This is linked to basic change of treatment protocol, adequate to severity of disease. 2

External validation of scoring systems in risk stratification of upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Anchu, Anna Cherian; Mohsina, Subair; Sureshkumar, Sathasivam; Mahalakshmy, T; Kate, Vikram

2017-03-01

The aim of this study was to externally validate the four commonly used scoring systems in the risk stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). Patients of UGIB who underwent endoscopy within 24 h of presentation were stratified prospectively using the pre-endoscopy Rockall score (PRS) >0, complete Rockall score (CRS) >2, Glasgow Blatchford bleeding scores (GBS) >3, and modified GBS (m-GBS) >3 scores. Patients were followed up to 30 days. Prognostic accuracy of the scores was done by comparing areas under curve (AUC) in terms of overall risk stratification, re-bleeding, mortality, need for intervention, and length of hospitalization. One hundred and seventy-five patients were studied. All four scores performed better in the overall risk stratification on AUC [PRS = 0.566 (CI: 0.481-0.651; p-0.043)/CRS = 0.712 (CI: 0.634-0.790); p<0.001)/GBS = 0.810 (CI: 0.744-0.877; p->0.001); m-GBS = 0.802 (CI: 0.734-0.871; p<0.001)], whereas only CRS achieved significance in identifying re-bleed [AUC-0.679 (CI: 0.579-0.780; p = 0.003)]. All the scoring systems except PRS were found to be significantly better in detecting 30-day mortality with a high AUC (CRS = 0.798; p-0.042)/GBS = 0.833; p-0.023); m-GBS = 0.816; p-0.031). All four scores demonstrated significant accuracy in the risk stratification of non-variceal patients; however, only GBS and m-GBS were significant in variceal etiology. Higher cutoff scores achieved better sensitivity/specificity [RS > 0 (50/60.8), CRS > 1 (87.5/50.6), GBS > 7 (88.5/63.3), m-GBS > 7(82.3/72.6)] in the risk stratification. GBS and m-GBS appear to be more valid in risk stratification of UGIB patients in this region. Higher cutoff values achieved better predictive accuracy.

New Methods for the Analysis of Heartbeat Behavior in Risk Stratification

PubMed Central

Glass, Leon; Lerma, Claudia; Shrier, Alvin

2011-01-01

Developing better methods for risk stratification for tachyarrhythmic sudden cardiac remains a major challenge for physicians and scientists. Since the transition from sinus rhythm to ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation happens by different mechanisms in different people, it is unrealistic to think that a single measure will be adequate to provide a good index for risk stratification. We analyze the dynamical properties of ventricular premature complexes over 24 h in an effort to understand the underlying mechanisms of ventricular arrhythmias and to better understand the arrhythmias that occur in individual patients. Two dimensional density plots, called heartprints, correlate characteristic features of the dynamics of premature ventricular complexes and the sinus rate. Heartprints show distinctive characteristics in individual patients. Based on a better understanding of the natures of transitions from sinus rhythm to sudden cardiac and the mechanisms of arrhythmia prior to cardiac arrest, it should be possible to develop better methods for risk stratification. PMID:22144963

Risk stratification, genomic data and the law.

PubMed

Hall, Alison; Finnegan, Thomas; Chowdhury, Susmita; Dent, Tom; Kroese, Mark; Burton, Hilary

2018-02-22

Risk prediction models have a key role in stratified disease prevention, and the incorporation of genomic data into these models promises more effective personalisation. Although the clinical utility of incorporating genomic data into risk prediction tools is increasingly compelling, at least for some applications and disease types, the legal and regulatory implications have not been examined and have been overshadowed by discussions about clinical and scientific utility and feasibility. We held a workshop to explore relevant legal and regulatory perspectives from four EU Member States: France, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK. While we found no absolute prohibition on the use of such data in those tools, there are considerable challenges. Currently, these are modest and result from genomic data being classified as sensitive data under existing Data Protection regulation. However, these challenges will increase in the future following the implementation of EU Regulations on data protection which take effect in 2018, and reforms to the governance of the manufacture, development and use of in vitro diagnostic devices to be implemented in 2022. Collectively these will increase the regulatory burden placed on these products as risk stratification tools will be brought within the scope of these new Regulations. The failure to respond to the challenges posed by the use of genomic data in disease risk stratification tools could therefore prove costly to those developing and using such tools.

Atherothrombotic Risk Stratification and Ezetimibe for Secondary Prevention.

PubMed

Bohula, Erin A; Morrow, David A; Giugliano, Robert P; Blazing, Michael A; He, Ping; Park, Jeong-Gun; Murphy, Sabina A; White, Jennifer A; Kesaniemi, Y Antero; Pedersen, Terje R; Brady, Adrian J; Mitchel, Yale; Cannon, Christopher P; Braunwald, Eugene

2017-02-28

Ezetimibe improves cardiovascular (CV) outcomes in patients stabilized after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) when added to statin therapy. After ACS, patients vary considerably in their risk for recurrent CV events. This study tested the hypothesis that atherothrombotic risk stratification may be useful to identify post-ACS patients who have the greatest potential for benefit from the addition of ezetimibe to statin therapy. The TIMI (Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction) Risk Score for Secondary Prevention (TRS 2°P) is a simple 9-point risk stratification tool, previously developed in a large population with atherothrombosis to predict CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), and ischemic stroke (CV death/MI/ischemic cerebrovascular accident [iCVA]). The current study applied this tool prospectively to 17,717 post-ACS patients randomized either to ezetimibe and simvastatin or to placebo and simvastatin in IMPROVE-IT (Improved Reduction of Outcomes: Vytorin Efficacy International Trial). Treatment efficacy was assessed by baseline risk for CV death/MI/iCVA, the IMPROVE-IT composite endpoints (CE), and individual component endpoints at 7 years. All 9 clinical variables in the TRS 2°P were independent risk indicators for CV death/MI/iCVA (p < 0.001). The integer-based scheme showed a strong graded relationship with the rate of CV death/MI/iCVA, the trial CE, and the individual components (p trend <0.0001 for each). High-risk patients (n = 4,393; 25%), defined by ≥3 risk indicators, had a 6.3% (95% confidence interval: 2.9% to 9.7%) absolute risk reduction in CV death/MI/iCVA at 7 years with ezetimibe/simvastatin, thus translating to a number-needed-to-treat of 16. Intermediate-risk patients (2 risk indicators; n = 5,292; 30%) had a 2.2% (95% confidence interval: -0.3% to 4.6%) absolute risk reduction. Low-risk patients (0 to 1 risk indicators; n = 8,032; 45%) did not appear to derive benefit from the addition of ezetimibe (p interaction = 0.010). Similar

Risk stratification for sudden death in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Cadrin-Tourigny, Julia; Tadros, Rafik; Talajic, Mario; Rivard, Lena; Abadir, Sylvia; Khairy, Paul

2015-06-01

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy/dysplasia (ARVC) is an uncommon but increasingly recognized inherited cardiomyopathy that is associated with malignant ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death, particularly in young individuals. The implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is widely regarded as the only treatment modality with evidence to support improved survival in patients with ARVC and secondary prevention indications. In contrast, there is no universally accepted risk stratification scheme to guide ICD therapy for primary prevention against sudden cardiac death. Potential benefits must be weighed against the considerable risks of complications and inappropriate shocks in this young patient population. This article tackles the challenges of risk stratification for sudden cardiac death in ARVC and critically appraises available evidence for various proposed risk factors. The authors' over-arching objective is to provide the clinician with evidence-based guidance to inform decisions regarding the selection of appropriate candidates with ARVC for ICD therapy.

Risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases: Opportunities for clinicians and trialists

PubMed Central

Trivedi, Palak J.; Corpechot, Christophe; Pares, Albert

2015-01-01

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are infrequent autoimmune cholestatic liver diseases, that disproportionate to their incidence and prevalence, remain very important causes of morbidity and mortality for patients with liver disease. Mechanistic insights spanning genetic risks and biological pathways to liver injury and fibrosis have led to a renewed interest in developing therapies beyond ursodeoxycholic acid that are aimed at both slowing disease course and improving quality of life. International cohort studies have facilitated a much greater understanding of disease heterogeneity, and in so doing highlight the opportunity to provide patients with a more individualized assessment of their risk of progressive liver disease, based on clinical, laboratory, or imaging findings. This has led to a new approach to patient care that focuses on risk stratification (both high and low risk); and furthermore allows such stratification tools to help identify patient subgroups at greatest potential benefit from inclusion in clinical trials. In this article, we review the applicability and validity of risk stratification in autoimmune cholestatic liver disease, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of current and emergent approaches. (Hepatology 2016;63:644–659) PMID:26290473

Developing a PTEN-ERG Signature to Improve Molecular Risk Stratification in Prostate Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-01

SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Prostate cancer (PCA) is a clinically and genetically heterogeneous and the development of a molecular classification is...AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-16-1-0739 TITLE: Developing a PTEN-ERG Signature to Improve Molecular Risk Stratification in Prostate Cancer PRINCIPAL...AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Developing a PTEN-ERG Signature to Improve Molecular Risk Stratification in Prostate Cancer 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH

Segmented Poincaré plot analysis for risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Voss, A; Fischer, C; Schroeder, R; Figulla, H R; Goernig, M

2010-01-01

The prognostic value of heart rate variability in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is limited and does not contribute to risk stratification although the dynamics of ventricular repolarization differs considerably between DCM patients and healthy subjects. Neither linear nor nonlinear methods of heart rate variability analysis could discriminate between patients at high and low risk for sudden cardiac death. The aim of this study was to analyze the suitability of the new developed segmented Poincaré plot analysis (SPPA) to enhance risk stratification in DCM. In contrast to the usual applied Poincaré plot analysis the SPPA retains nonlinear features from investigated beat-to-beat interval time series. Main features of SPPA are the rotation of cloud of points and their succeeded variability depended segmentation. Significant row and column probabilities were calculated from the segments and led to discrimination (up to p<0.005) between low and high risk in DCM patients. For the first time an index from Poincaré plot analysis of heart rate variability was able to contribute to risk stratification in patients suffering from DCM.

Preablation 131-I scans with SPECT/CT contribute to thyroid cancer risk stratification and 131-I therapy planning.

PubMed

Avram, Anca M; Esfandiari, Nazanene H; Wong, Ka Kit

2015-05-01

The use of preablation diagnostic radioiodine scans for risk stratification and radioiodine therapy planning for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) remains controversial. The objective was to assess the contribution of preablation diagnostic 131-I scans with SPECT/CT (Dx 131-I scan) to (1) the risk stratification and (2) the postoperative management of DTC. The study was designed as a prospective sequential patient series. The study was conducted at a University hospital. Three hundred twenty patients (pts) with DTC (219F; 101M, mean age 47.3 ± 16.4 y, range 10-90) were studied. Using clinical and histopathology information an endocrinologist performed risk stratification and determined postoperative management with respect to radioiodine therapy (RAI) planning. The decision to withhold or to administer RAI, and the recommended low, medium or high therapeutic 131-I activity were recorded. Dx 131-I scans were performed and interpreted by two nuclear medicine physicians as showing thyroid remnant, cervical nodal, or distant metastases. The endocrinologist then reperformed risk stratification and reformulated management after consideration of Dx 131-I scans and stimulated thyroglobulin (Tg) information. Main outcome measures were changes in risk stratification and management after Dx 131-I scans. Detection of unsuspected nodal and distant metastases and elevated stimulated Tg levels resulted in a change in the estimated risk of recurrence in 15% of patients, and management in 31% of patients, as compared to initial risk stratification and management based on histopathology alone. Both imaging data and stimulated thyroglobulin levels acquired at the time of Dx 131-I scans are consequential for 131-I therapy planning, providing information that changes risk stratification in 15% of patients as compared to recurrence risk estimation based on histopathology alone. Dx 131-I scans contribute to risk stratification by defining residual nodal and distant metastatic disease

Potential usefulness of apolipoprotein A2 isoforms for screening and risk stratification of pancreatic cancer

PubMed Central

Honda, Kazufumi; Srivastava, Sudhir

2016-01-01

Given the low incidence of pancreatic cancer in the general population, screening of pancreatic cancer in the general population using invasive modalities is not feasible. Combination of invasive screening with noninvasive biomarkers for pancreatic cancer and its precancerous lesions has the potential to reduce mortality due to pancreatic cancer. In this review, we focus on biomarkers found in the blood that can indicate early-stage pancreatic cancer, and we discuss current strategies for screening for pancreatic cancer. We recently identified a unique alteration in apolipoprotein A2 isoforms in pancreatic cancer and its precancerous lesions, and we describe its clinical usefulness as a potential biomarker for the early detection and risk stratification of pancreatic cancer. PMID:27673558

Superiority of delayed risk stratification in differentiated thyroid cancer after total thyroidectomy and radioactive iodine ablation.

PubMed

Hong, Chae Moon; Lee, Won Kee; Jeong, Shin Young; Lee, Sang-Woo; Ahn, Byeong-Cheol; Lee, Jaetae

2014-11-01

The aim of this study was to validate the effectiveness of delayed risk stratification (DRS) in predicting structural progression and compare the predictive value of American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk stratification with that of DRS in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). A total of 398 patients with DTC who underwent surgery followed by radioactive iodine ablation were enrolled. Patients were categorized as having excellent response, acceptable response, biochemical incomplete response, or structural incomplete response at 8-15 months' evaluation after radioactive iodine ablation for DRS. Effectiveness of DRS was evaluated according to structural progression-free survival (PFS; median follow-up, 10.7 years). A total of 229 patients (57.5%) were classified as having excellent response, 78 (19.6%) as having acceptable response, 62 (15.6%) as having biochemical incomplete response, and 29 patients (7.3%) as having structural incomplete response. After DRS, 60.2% of intermediate-risk patients and 20.5% of high-risk patients were shifted to the excellent response category. Sixty-nine patients (17.3%) showed structural progression. DRS showed statistical difference in PFS (hazard ratio, 4.268; 95% confidence interval, 3.258-5.477; P<0.001). In multivariate analysis of ATA risk stratification and DRS, DRS was significantly associated with PFS (hazard ratio, 4.383; 95% confidence interval, 3.250-5.912; P<0.001), but ATA risk stratification was not. There was no significant difference in deviances between the use of DRS alone and the use of both DRS and ATA risk stratification (χ=0.103, d.f.=1, P=0.748). DRS is superior to ATA risk stratification in predicting structural disease progression for DTC patients.

Short-term vs. long-term heart rate variability in ischemic cardiomyopathy risk stratification.

PubMed

Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Schulz, Steffen; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antoni; Caminal, Pere

2013-01-01

In industrialized countries with aging populations, heart failure affects 0.3-2% of the general population. The investigation of 24 h-ECG recordings revealed the potential of nonlinear indices of heart rate variability (HRV) for enhanced risk stratification in patients with ischemic heart failure (IHF). However, long-term analyses are time-consuming, expensive, and delay the initial diagnosis. The objective of this study was to investigate whether 30 min short-term HRV analysis is sufficient for comparable risk stratification in IHF in comparison to 24 h-HRV analysis. From 256 IHF patients [221 at low risk (IHFLR) and 35 at high risk (IHFHR)] (a) 24 h beat-to-beat time series (b) the first 30 min segment (c) the 30 min most stationary day segment and (d) the 30 min most stationary night segment were investigated. We calculated linear (time and frequency domain) and nonlinear HRV analysis indices. Optimal parameter sets for risk stratification in IHF were determined for 24 h and for each 30 min segment by applying discriminant analysis on significant clinical and non-clinical indices. Long- and short-term HRV indices from frequency domain and particularly from nonlinear dynamics revealed high univariate significances (p < 0.01) discriminating between IHFLR and IHFHR. For multivariate risk stratification, optimal mixed parameter sets consisting of 5 indices (clinical and nonlinear) achieved 80.4% AUC (area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics) from 24 h HRV analysis, 84.3% AUC from first 30 min, 82.2 % AUC from daytime 30 min and 81.7% AUC from nighttime 30 min. The optimal parameter set obtained from the first 30 min showed nearly the same classification power when compared to the optimal 24 h-parameter set. As results from stationary daytime and nighttime, 30 min segments indicate that short-term analyses of 30 min may provide at least a comparable risk stratification power in IHF in comparison to a 24 h analysis period.

The TRIAGE-ProADM Score for an Early Risk Stratification of Medical Patients in the Emergency Department - Development Based on a Multi-National, Prospective, Observational Study

PubMed Central

Hausfater, Pierre; Amin, Devendra; Amin, Adina; Canavaggio, Pauline; Sauvin, Gabrielle; Bernard, Maguy; Conca, Antoinette; Haubitz, Sebastian; Struja, Tristan; Huber, Andreas; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

2016-01-01

Introduction The inflammatory biomarker pro-adrenomedullin (ProADM) provides additional prognostic information for the risk stratification of general medical emergency department (ED) patients. The aim of this analysis was to develop a triage algorithm for improved prognostication and later use in an interventional trial. Methods We used data from the multi-national, prospective, observational TRIAGE trial including consecutive medical ED patients from Switzerland, France and the United States. We investigated triage effects when adding ProADM at two established cut-offs to a five-level ED triage score with respect to adverse clinical outcome. Results Mortality in the 6586 ED patients showed a step-wise, 25-fold increase from 0.6% to 4.5% and 15.4%, respectively, at the two ProADM cut-offs (≤0.75nmol/L, >0.75–1.5nmol/L, >1.5nmol/L, p ANOVA <0.0001). Risk stratification by combining ProADM within cut-off groups and the triage score resulted in the identification of 1662 patients (25.2% of the population) at a very low risk of mortality (0.3%, n = 5) and 425 patients (6.5% of the population) at very high risk of mortality (19.3%, n = 82). Risk estimation by using ProADM and the triage score from a logistic regression model allowed for a more accurate risk estimation in the whole population with a classification of 3255 patients (49.4% of the population) in the low risk group (0.3% mortality, n = 9) and 1673 (25.4% of the population) in the high-risk group (15.1% mortality, n = 252). Conclusions Within this large international multicenter study, a combined triage score based on ProADM and established triage scores allowed a more accurate mortality risk discrimination. The TRIAGE-ProADM score improved identification of both patients at the highest risk of mortality who may benefit from early therapeutic interventions (rule in), and low risk patients where deferred treatment without negatively affecting outcome may be possible (rule out). PMID:28005916

Recommendations on breast cancer screening and prevention in the context of implementing risk stratification: impending changes to current policies

PubMed Central

Gagnon, J.; Lévesque, E.; Borduas, F.; Chiquette, J.; Diorio, C.; Duchesne, N.; Dumais, M.; Eloy, L.; Foulkes, W.; Gervais, N.; Lalonde, L.; L’Espérance, B.; Meterissian, S.; Provencher, L.; Richard, J.; Savard, C.; Trop, I.; Wong, N.; Knoppers, B.M.; Simard, J.

2016-01-01

In recent years, risk stratification has sparked interest as an innovative approach to disease screening and prevention. The approach effectively personalizes individual risk, opening the way to screening and prevention interventions that are adapted to subpopulations. The international perspective project, which is developing risk stratification for breast cancer, aims to support the integration of its screening approach into clinical practice through comprehensive tool-building. Policies and guidelines for risk stratification—unlike those for population screening programs, which are currently well regulated—are still under development. Indeed, the development of guidelines for risk stratification reflects the translational aspects of perspective. Here, we describe the risk stratification process that was devised in the context of perspective, and we then explain the consensus-based method used to develop recommendations for breast cancer screening and prevention in a risk-stratification approach. Lastly, we discuss how the recommendations might affect current screening policies. PMID:28050152

A two-stage clinical decision support system for early recognition and stratification of patients with sepsis: an observational cohort study.

PubMed

Amland, Robert C; Lyons, Jason J; Greene, Tracy L; Haley, James M

2015-10-01

To examine the diagnostic accuracy of a two-stage clinical decision support system for early recognition and stratification of patients with sepsis. Observational cohort study employing a two-stage sepsis clinical decision support to recognise and stratify patients with sepsis. The stage one component was comprised of a cloud-based clinical decision support with 24/7 surveillance to detect patients at risk of sepsis. The cloud-based clinical decision support delivered notifications to the patients' designated nurse, who then electronically contacted a provider. The second stage component comprised a sepsis screening and stratification form integrated into the patient electronic health record, essentially an evidence-based decision aid, used by providers to assess patients at bedside. Urban, 284 acute bed community hospital in the USA; 16,000 hospitalisations annually. Data on 2620 adult patients were collected retrospectively in 2014 after the clinical decision support was implemented. 'Suspected infection' was the established gold standard to assess clinical decision support clinimetric performance. A sepsis alert activated on 417 (16%) of 2620 adult patients hospitalised. Applying 'suspected infection' as standard, the patient population characteristics showed 72% sensitivity and 73% positive predictive value. A postalert screening conducted by providers at bedside of 417 patients achieved 81% sensitivity and 94% positive predictive value. Providers documented against 89% patients with an alert activated by clinical decision support and completed 75% of bedside screening and stratification of patients with sepsis within one hour from notification. A clinical decision support binary alarm system with cross-checking functionality improves early recognition and facilitates stratification of patients with sepsis.

Risk Stratification Methods and Provision of Care Management Services in Comprehensive Primary Care Initiative Practices.

PubMed

Reddy, Ashok; Sessums, Laura; Gupta, Reshma; Jin, Janel; Day, Tim; Finke, Bruce; Bitton, Asaf

2017-09-01

Risk-stratified care management is essential to improving population health in primary care settings, but evidence is limited on the type of risk stratification method and its association with care management services. We describe risk stratification patterns and association with care management services for primary care practices in the Comprehensive Primary Care (CPC) initiative. We undertook a qualitative approach to categorize risk stratification methods being used by CPC practices and tested whether these stratification methods were associated with delivery of care management services. CPC practices reported using 4 primary methods to stratify risk for their patient populations: a practice-developed algorithm (n = 215), the American Academy of Family Physicians' clinical algorithm (n = 155), payer claims and electronic health records (n = 62), and clinical intuition (n = 52). CPC practices using practice-developed algorithm identified the most number of high-risk patients per primary care physician (282 patients, P = .006). CPC practices using clinical intuition had the most high-risk patients in care management and a greater proportion of high-risk patients receiving care management per primary care physician (91 patients and 48%, P =.036 and P =.128, respectively). CPC practices used 4 primary methods to identify high-risk patients. Although practices that developed their own algorithm identified the greatest number of high-risk patients, practices that used clinical intuition connected the greatest proportion of patients to care management services. © 2017 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

Role of Immune Microenvironmental Factors for Improving the IPI-related Risk Stratification of Aggressive B Cell Lymphoma.

PubMed

Gong, Yi; Chen, Rui; Zhang, Xi; Zou, Zhong Min; Chen, Xing Hua

2017-07-01

To investigate the risk stratification of aggressive B cell lymphoma using the immune microenvironment and clinical factors. A total of 127 patients with aggressive B cell lymphoma between 2014 and 2015 were enrolled in this study. CD4, Foxp3, CD8, CD68, CD163, PD-1, and PD-L1 expression levels were evaluated in paraffin-embedded lymphoma tissues to identify their roles in the risk stratification. Eleven factors were identified for further evaluation using analysis of variance, chi-square, and multinomial logistic regression analysis. Significant differences in 11 factors (age, Ann Arbor stage, B symptom, ECOG performance status, infiltrating CD8+ T cells, PD-L1 expression, absolute blood monocyte count, serum lactate dehydrogenase, serum iron, serum albumin, and serum β2-microglobulin) were observed among patient groups stratified by at least two risk stratification methods [International Prognostic Index (IPI), revised IPI, and NCCN-IPI models] (P < 0.05). Concordance rates were high (81.4%-100.0%) when these factors were used for the risk stratification. No difference in the risk stratification results was observed with or without the Ann Arbor stage data. We developed a convenient and inexpensive tool for use in risk stratification of aggressive B cell lymphomas, although further studies on the role of immune microenvironmental factors are needed. Copyright © 2017 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

Risk Stratification and Shared Decision Making for Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Schroy, Paul C; Duhovic, Emir; Chen, Clara A; Heeren, Timothy C; Lopez, William; Apodaca, Danielle L; Wong, John B

2016-05-01

Eliciting patient preferences within the context of shared decision making has been advocated for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet providers often fail to comply with patient preferences that differ from their own. To determine whether risk stratification for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) influences provider willingness to comply with patient preferences when selecting a desired CRC screening option. Randomized controlled trial. Asymptomatic, average-risk patients due for CRC screening in an urban safety net health care setting. Patients were randomized 1:1 to a decision aid alone (n= 168) or decision aid plus risk assessment (n= 173) arm between September 2012 and September 2014. The primary outcome was concordance between patient preference and test ordered; secondary outcomes included patient satisfaction with the decision-making process, screening intentions, test completion rates, and provider satisfaction. Although providers perceived risk stratification to be useful in selecting an appropriate screening test for their average-risk patients, no significant differences in concordance were observed between the decision aid alone and decision aid plus risk assessment groups (88.1% v. 85.0%,P= 0.40) or high- and low-risk groups (84.5% v. 87.1%,P= 0.51). Concordance was highest for colonoscopy and relatively low for tests other than colonoscopy, regardless of study arm or risk group. Failure to comply with patient preferences was negatively associated with satisfaction with the decision-making process, screening intentions, and test completion rates. Single-institution setting; lack of provider education about the utility of risk stratification into their decision making. Providers perceived risk stratification to be useful in their decision making but often failed to comply with patient preferences for tests other than colonoscopy, even among those deemed to be at low risk of ACN. © The Author(s) 2016.

Application of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) as a stratification tool on admission in an Italian acute medical ward: A perspective study.

PubMed

Spagnolli, Walter; Rigoni, Marta; Torri, Emanuele; Cozzio, Susanna; Vettorato, Elisa; Nollo, Giandomenico

2017-03-01

We aimed to assess the performance of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) as tool for patient risk stratification at admission in an acute Internal Medicine ward and to ensure patient placement in ward areas with the required and most appropriate intensity of care. As secondary objective, we considered NEWS performance in two subgroups of patients: sudden cardiac events (acute coronary syndromes and arrhythmic events), and chronic respiratory insufficiency. We conducted a perspective cohort single centre study on 2,677 unselected patients consecutively admitted from July 2013 to March 2015 in the Internal Medicine ward of the hospital of Trento, Italy. The NEWS was mandatory collected on ward admission. We defined three risk categories for clinical deterioration: low score (NEWS 0-4), medium score (NEWS 5-6), and high score (NEWS≥7). Following adverse outcomes were considered: total and early (<72 hours) in-hospital mortality, urgent transfers to a higher intensity of care. A logistic regression model quantified the association between outcomes and NEWS. For patients with NEWS >4 vs patients with NEWS <4, the risk of early death increased from 12 to 36 times, total mortality from 3.5 to 9, and urgent transfers from 3.5 to 7. In patients with sudden cardiac events, lower scores were significantly associated with higher risk of transfer to a higher intensity of care. In patients affected by chronic hypoxaemia, adverse outcomes occurred less in medium and high score categories of NEWS. National Early Warning Score assessed on ward admission may enable risk stratification of clinical deterioration and can be a good predictor of in-hospital serious adverse outcomes, although sudden cardiac events and chronic hypoxaemia could constitute some limits. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Noninvasive risk stratification for sudden death in asymptomatic patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome.

PubMed

Novella, John; DeBiasi, Ralph M; Coplan, Neil L; Suri, Ranji; Keller, Seth

2014-01-01

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) as the first clinical manifestation of Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome is a well-documented, although rare occurrence. The incidence of SCD in patients with WPW ranges from 0% to 0.39% annually. Controversy exists regarding risk stratification for patients with preexcitation on surface electrocardiogram (ECG), particularly in those who are asymptomatic. This article focuses on the role of risk stratification using exercise and pharmacologic testing in patients with WPW pattern on ECG.

Clinical Risk Stratification for Primary Prevention Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators

PubMed Central

Hardy, Judy; Yee, Raymond; Healey, Jeffrey S.; Birnie, David; Simpson, Christopher S.; Crystal, Eugene; Mangat, Iqwal; Nanthakumar, Kumaraswamy; Wang, Xuesong; Krahn, Andrew D.; Dorian, Paul; Austin, Peter C.; Tu, Jack V.

2015-01-01

Background— A conceptualized model may be useful for understanding risk stratification of primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillators considering the competing risks of appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator shock versus mortality. Methods and Results— In a prospective, multicenter, population-based cohort with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% referred for primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator, we developed dual risk stratification models to determine the competing risks of appropriate defibrillator shock versus mortality using a Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model. Among 7020 patients referred, 3445 underwent defibrillator implant (79.7% men, median, 66 years [25th, 75th: 58–73]). During 5918 person-years of follow-up, appropriate shock occurred in 204 patients (3.6 shocks/100 person-years) and 292 died (4.9 deaths/100 person-years). Competing risk predictors of appropriate shock included nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, atrial fibrillation, serum creatinine concentration, digoxin or amiodarone use, and QRS duration near 130-ms peak. One-year cumulative incidence of appropriate shock was 0.9% in the lowest risk category, and 1.7%, 2.5%, 4.9%, and 9.3% in low, intermediate, high, and highest risk groups, respectively. Hazard ratios for appropriate shock ranged from 4.04 to 7.79 in the highest 3 deciles (all P≤0.001 versus lowest risk). Cumulative incidence of 1-year death was 0.6%, 1.9%, 3.3%, 6.2%, and 17.7% in lowest, low, intermediate, high, and highest risk groups, respectively. Mortality hazard ratios ranged from 11.48 to 36.22 in the highest 3 deciles (all P<0.001 versus lowest risk). Conclusions— Simultaneous estimation of risks of appropriate shock and mortality can be performed using clinical variables, providing a potential framework for identification of patients who are unlikely to benefit from prophylactic implantable cardioverter defibrillator. PMID:26224792

Percentage of Positive Biopsy Cores: A Better Risk Stratification Model for Prostate Cancer?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang Jiayi; Vicini, Frank A.; Williams, Scott G.

2012-07-15

Purpose: To assess the prognostic value of the percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPC) and perineural invasion in predicting the clinical outcomes after radiotherapy (RT) for prostate cancer and to explore the possibilities to improve on existing risk-stratification models. Methods and Materials: Between 1993 and 2004, 1,056 patients with clinical Stage T1c-T3N0M0 prostate cancer, who had four or more biopsy cores sampled and complete biopsy core data available, were treated with external beam RT, with or without a high-dose-rate brachytherapy boost at William Beaumont Hospital. The median follow-up was 7.6 years. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed with PPC, Gleasonmore » score, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen, T stage, PNI, radiation dose, androgen deprivation, age, prostate-specific antigen frequency, and follow-up duration. A new risk stratification (PPC classification) was empirically devised to incorporate PPC and replace the T stage. Results: On multivariate Cox regression analysis, the PPC was an independent predictor of distant metastasis, cause-specific survival, and overall survival (all p < .05). A PPC >50% was associated with significantly greater distant metastasis (hazard ratio, 4.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.86-8.61), and its independent predictive value remained significant with or without androgen deprivation therapy (all p < .05). In contrast, PNI and T stage were only predictive for locoregional recurrence. Combining the PPC ({<=}50% vs. >50%) with National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk stratification demonstrated added prognostic value of distant metastasis for the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio, 5.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-16.6) and high-risk (hazard ratio, 4.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.70-11.3) groups, regardless of the use of androgen deprivation and high-dose RT (all p < .05). The proposed PPC classification appears to provide improved stratification of the clinical outcomes relative to the

The Auckland Cataract Study: Assessing Preoperative Risk Stratification Systems for Phacoemulsification Surgery in a Teaching Hospital.

PubMed

Kim, Bia Z; Patel, Dipika V; Sherwin, Trevor; McGhee, Charles N J

2016-11-01

To evaluate 2 preoperative risk stratification systems for assessing the risk of complications in phacoemulsification cataract surgery, performed by residents, fellows, and attending physicians in a public teaching hospital. Cohort study. One observer assessed the clinical data of 500 consecutive cases, prior to phacoemulsification cataract surgery performed between April and June 2015 at Greenlane Clinical Centre, Auckland, New Zealand. Preoperatively 2 risk scores were calculated for each case using the Muhtaseb and Buckinghamshire risk stratification systems. Complications, intraoperative and postoperative, and visual outcomes were analyzed in relation to these risk scores. Intraoperative complication rates increased with higher risk scores using the Muhtaseb or Buckinghamshire stratification system (P = .001 and P = .003, respectively, n = 500). The odds ratios for residents and fellows were not significantly different from attending physicians after case-mix adjustment according to risk scores (P > .05). Postoperative complication rates increased with higher Buckinghamshire risk scores but not with Muhtaseb scores (P = .014 and P = .094, respectively, n = 476). Postoperative corrected-distance visual acuity was poorer with higher risk scores (P < .001 for both, n = 476). This study confirms that the risk of intraoperative complications increases with higher preoperative risk scores. Furthermore, higher risk scores correlate with poorer postoperative visual acuity and the Buckinghamshire risk score also correlates with postoperative complications. Therefore, preoperative assessment using such risk stratification systems could assist individual informed consent, preoperative surgical planning, safe allocation of cases to trainees, and more meaningful analyses of outcomes for individual surgeons and institutions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk stratification of thyroid nodules on ultrasonography with the French TI-RADS: description and reflections

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The widespread use of ultrasonography places it in a key position for use in the risk stratification of thyroid nodules. The French proposal is a five-tier system, our version of a thyroid imaging reporting and database system (TI-RADS), which includes a standardized vocabulary and report and a quantified risk assessment. It allows the selection of the nodules that should be referred for fine-needle aspiration biopsies. Effort should be directed towards merging the different risk stratification systems utilized around the world and testing this unified system with multi-center studies. PMID:26324117

State of the Art: Blood Biomarkers for Risk Stratification in Patients with Stable Ischemic Heart Disease.

PubMed

Omland, Torbjørn; White, Harvey D

2017-01-01

Multiple circulating biomarkers have been associated with the incidence of cardiovascular events and proposed as potential tools for risk stratification in stable ischemic heart disease (IHD), yet current guidelines do not make any firm recommendations concerning the use of biomarkers for risk stratification in this setting. This state-of-the-art review provides an overview of biomarkers for risk stratification in stable IHD. Circulating biomarkers associated with the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with stable IHD reflect different pathophysiological processes, including myocardial injury, myocardial stress and remodeling, metabolic status, vascular inflammation, and oxidative stress. Compared to the primary prevention setting, biomarkers reflecting end-organ damage and future risk of heart failure development and cardiovascular death may play more important roles in the stable IHD setting. Accordingly, biomarkers that reflect chronic, low-grade myocardial injury, and stress, i.e., high-sensitivity cardiac troponins and natriuretic peptides, provide graded and incremental prognostic information to conventional risk markers. In contrast, in stable IHD patients the prognostic value of traditional metabolic biomarkers, including serum lipids, is limited. Among several novel biomarkers, growth-differentiation factor-15 may provide the most robust prognostic information, whereas most inflammatory markers provide limited incremental prognostic information to risk factor models that include conventional risk factors, natriuretic peptides, and high-sensitivity troponins. Circulating biomarkers hold promise as useful tools for risk stratification in stable IHD, but their future incorporation into clinically useful risk scores will depend on prospective, rigorously performed clinical trials that document enhanced risk prediction. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

A novel protein-based prognostic signature improves risk stratification to guide clinical management in early lung adenocarcinoma patients.

PubMed

Martínez-Terroba, Elena; Behrens, Carmen; de Miguel, Fernando J; Agorreta, Jackeline; Monsó, Eduard; Millares, Laura; Sainz, Cristina; Mesa-Guzman, Miguel; Pérez-Gracia, Jose Luis; Lozano, María Dolores; Zulueta, Javier J; Pio, Ruben; Wistuba, Ignacio I; Montuenga, Luis M; Pajares, María J

2018-05-13

Each of the pathological stages (I-IIIa) in which surgically resected non-small cell lung cancer patients are classified conceals hidden biological heterogeneity, manifested in heterogeneous outcomes within each stage. Thus, the finding of robust and precise molecular classifiers to assess individual patient risk is an unmet medical need. Here we identified and validated the clinical utility of a new prognostic signature based on three proteins (BRCA1, QKI and SLC2A1) to stratify early lung adenocarcinoma patients according to their risk of recurrence or death. Patients were staged following the new International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer (IASLC) staging criteria (8 th edition, 2018). A test cohort (n=239) was used to assess the value of this new prognostic index (PI) based on the three proteins. The prognostic signature was developed by Cox regression following stringent statistical criteria (TRIPOD: Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis). The model resulted in a highly significant predictor of five-year outcome for disease-free survival (P<0.001) and overall survival (P<0.001). The prognostic ability of the model was externally validated in an independent multi-institutional cohort of patients (n=114, P=0.021). We also demonstrated that this molecular classifier adds relevant information to the gold standard TNM-based pathological staging with a highly significant improvement of likelihood ratio. We subsequently developed a combined prognostic index (CPI) including both the molecular and the pathological data which improved the risk stratification in both cohorts (P≤0.001). Moreover, the signature may help to select stage I-IIA patients who might benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. In summary, this protein-based signature accurately identifies those patients with high risk of recurrence and death, and adds further prognostic information to the TNM-based clinical staging, even applying the

Coronary heart disease risk stratification: pitfalls and possibilities.

PubMed

Negi, Smita; Nambi, Vijay

Atherosclerosis of the coronary arteries, or coronary heart disease (CHD), is the most common cause of mortality in U.S. adults. The pathobiology of atherosclerosis and its complications is a continuum. At one end of the spectrum are young individuals without atherosclerotic disease who have not yet been exposed to lifestyle or other risk factors, and at the other end are patients with manifest atherosclerosis - myocardial infarction, stroke, and disabling peripheral arterial disease - where risk of recurrent disease and death is driven by the same factors initially responsible for the emergence of disease. However, it is clear that while risk factors are important in the development of CHD, not everyone with risk factors develops the disease and not everyone with CHD has risk factors. Furthermore, even similar degrees of exposure to a risk factor leads to disease in some individuals and not in others. Risk prediction, which is crucial in predicting and hence preventing disease, therefore becomes very challenging. In this article we review the currently available risk stratification tools for predicting CHD risk and discuss potential ways to improve risk prediction.

Early Dynamic Risk Stratification with Baseline Troponin Levels and 90-minute ST Segment Resolution to Predict 30 Day Cardiovascular Mortality in STEMI: Analysis from CLARITY TIMI-28

PubMed Central

Sherwood, Matthew W.; Morrow, David A.; Scirica, Benjamin M.; Jiang, Songtao; Bode, Christoph; Rifai, Nader; Gerszten, Robert E.; Gibson, C. Michael; Cannon, Christopher P.; Braunwald, Eugene; Sabatine, Marc S.

2010-01-01

Background Troponin is the preferred biomarker for risk stratification in non-ST-elevation ACS. The incremental prognostic utility of the initial magnitude of troponin elevation and its value in conjunction with ST segment resolution (STRes) in STEMI is less well-defined. Methods Troponin T (TnT) was measured in 1250 patients at presentation undergoing fibrinolysis for STEMI in CLARITY-TIMI 28. STRes was measured at 90 minutes. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the independent association between TnT levels, STRes, and 30-day cardiovascular (CV) mortality. Results Patients were classified into undetectable TnT at baseline (n=594), detectable but below the median of 0.12 ng/ml (n=330), and above the median (n=326). Rates of 30-day CV death were 1.5%, 4.5%, and 9.5% respectively (P<0.0001). Compared with those with undetectable levels and adjusting for baseline factors, the odds ratios for 30-day CV death were 4.56 (1.72-12.08, P=0.002) and 5.81 (2.29-14.73, P=0.0002) for those below and above the median, respectively. When combined with STRes, there was a significant gradient of risk, and in a multivariable model both baseline TnT (P=0.004) and STRes (P=0.003) were significant predictors of 30-day CV death. The addition of TnT and STRes to clinical risk factors significantly improved the C-statistic (0.86 to 0.90, P=0.02) and the integrated discriminative improvement 7.1% (P=0.0009). Conclusions Baseline TnT and 90-minute STRes are independent predictors of 30-day CV death in patients with STEMI. Use of these two simple, readily available tools can aid clinicians in early risk stratification. PMID:20569707

SIOP‐PODC adapted risk stratification and treatment guidelines: Recommendations for neuroblastoma in low‐ and middle‐income settings

PubMed Central

Howard, Scott C.; Chantada, Guillermo; Israels, Trijn; Khattab, Mohammed; Alcasabas, Patricia; Lam, Catherine G.; Faulkner, Lawrence; Park, Julie R.; London, Wendy B.; Matthay, Katherine K.

2015-01-01

Neuroblastoma is the most common extracranial solid tumor in childhood in high‐income countries (HIC), where consistent treatment approaches based on clinical and tumor biological risk stratification have steadily improved outcomes. However, in low‐ and middle‐ income countries (LMIC), suboptimal diagnosis, risk stratification, and treatment may occur due to limited resources and unavailable infrastructure. The clinical practice guidelines outlined in this manuscript are based on current published evidence and expert opinions. Standard risk stratification and treatment explicitly adapted to graduated resource settings can improve outcomes for children with neuroblastoma by reducing preventable toxic death and relapse. Pediatr Blood Cancer 2015;62:1305–1316. © 2015 The Authors. Pediatric Blood & Cancer, published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:25810263

Accurate Diabetes Risk Stratification Using Machine Learning: Role of Missing Value and Outliers.

PubMed

Maniruzzaman, Md; Rahman, Md Jahanur; Al-MehediHasan, Md; Suri, Harman S; Abedin, Md Menhazul; El-Baz, Ayman; Suri, Jasjit S

2018-04-10

Diabetes mellitus is a group of metabolic diseases in which blood sugar levels are too high. About 8.8% of the world was diabetic in 2017. It is projected that this will reach nearly 10% by 2045. The major challenge is that when machine learning-based classifiers are applied to such data sets for risk stratification, leads to lower performance. Thus, our objective is to develop an optimized and robust machine learning (ML) system under the assumption that missing values or outliers if replaced by a median configuration will yield higher risk stratification accuracy. This ML-based risk stratification is designed, optimized and evaluated, where: (i) the features are extracted and optimized from the six feature selection techniques (random forest, logistic regression, mutual information, principal component analysis, analysis of variance, and Fisher discriminant ratio) and combined with ten different types of classifiers (linear discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis, naïve Bayes, Gaussian process classification, support vector machine, artificial neural network, Adaboost, logistic regression, decision tree, and random forest) under the hypothesis that both missing values and outliers when replaced by computed medians will improve the risk stratification accuracy. Pima Indian diabetic dataset (768 patients: 268 diabetic and 500 controls) was used. Our results demonstrate that on replacing the missing values and outliers by group median and median values, respectively and further using the combination of random forest feature selection and random forest classification technique yields an accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and area under the curve as: 92.26%, 95.96%, 79.72%, 91.14%, 91.20%, and 0.93, respectively. This is an improvement of 10% over previously developed techniques published in literature. The system was validated for its stability and reliability. RF-based model showed the best

A new gender-specific model for skin autofluorescence risk stratification

PubMed Central

Ahmad, Muhammad S.; Damanhouri, Zoheir A.; Kimhofer, Torben; Mosli, Hala H.; Holmes, Elaine

2015-01-01

Advanced glycation endproducts (AGEs) are believed to play a significant role in the pathophysiology of a variety of diseases including diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Non-invasive skin autofluorescence (SAF) measurement serves as a proxy for tissue accumulation of AGEs. We assessed reference SAF and skin reflectance (SR) values in a Saudi population (n = 1,999) and evaluated the existing risk stratification scale. The mean SAF of the study cohort was 2.06 (SD = 0.57) arbitrary units (AU), which is considerably higher than the values reported for other populations. We show a previously unreported and significant difference in SAF values between men and women, with median (range) values of 1.77 AU (0.79–4.84 AU) and 2.20 AU (0.75–4.59 AU) respectively (p-value « 0.01). Age, presence of diabetes and BMI were the most influential variables in determining SAF values in men, whilst in female participants, SR was also highly correlated with SAF. Diabetes, hypertension and obesity all showed strong association with SAF, particularly when gender differences were taken into account. We propose an adjusted, gender-specific disease risk stratification scheme for Middle Eastern populations. SAF is a potentially valuable clinical screening tool for cardiovascular risk assessment but risk scores should take gender and ethnicity into consideration for accurate diagnosis. PMID:25974028

Risk of early surgery for Crohn's disease: implications for early treatment strategies.

PubMed

Sands, Bruce E; Arsenault, Joanne E; Rosen, Michael J; Alsahli, Mazen; Bailen, Laurence; Banks, Peter; Bensen, Steven; Bousvaros, Athos; Cave, David; Cooley, Jeffrey S; Cooper, Herbert L; Edwards, Susan T; Farrell, Richard J; Griffin, Michael J; Hay, David W; John, Alex; Lidofsky, Sheldon; Olans, Lori B; Peppercorn, Mark A; Rothstein, Richard I; Roy, Michael A; Saletta, Michael J; Shah, Samir A; Warner, Andrew S; Wolf, Jacqueline L; Vecchio, James; Winter, Harland S; Zawacki, John K

2003-12-01

In this study we aimed to define the rate of early surgery for Crohn's disease and to identify risk factors associated with early surgery as a basis for subsequent studies of early intervention in Crohn's disease. We assembled a retrospective cohort of patients with Crohn's disease diagnosed between 1991 and 1997 and followed for at least 3 yr, who were identified in 16 community and referral-based practices in New England. Chart review was performed for each patient. Details of baseline demographic and disease features were recorded. Surgical history including date of surgery, indication, and procedure were also noted. Risk factors for early surgery (defined as major surgery for Crohn's disease within 3 yr of diagnosis, exclusive of major surgery at time of diagnosis) were identified by univariate analysis. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors. Of 345 eligible patients, 69 (20.1%) required surgery within 3 yr of diagnosis, excluding the 14 patients (4.1%) who had major surgery at the time of diagnosis. Overall, the interval between diagnosis and surgery was short; one half of all patients who required surgery underwent operation within 6 months of diagnosis. Risk factors identified by univariate analysis as significantly associated with early surgery included the following: smoking; disease of small bowel without colonic involvement; nausea and vomiting or abdominal pain on presentation; neutrophil count; and steroid use in the first 6 months. Disease localized to the colon only, blood in the stool, use of 5-aminosalicylate, and lymphocyte count were inversely associated with risk of early surgery. Logistic regression confirmed independent associations with smoking as a positive risk factor and involvement of colon without small bowel as a negative risk factor for early surgery. The rate of surgery is high in the first 3 yr after diagnosis of Crohn's disease, particularly in the first 6 months. These results suggest that

Prodromal Parkinsonism and Neurodegenerative Risk Stratification in REM Sleep Behavior Disorder

PubMed Central

Lawton, Michael; Rolinski, Michal; Evetts, Samuel; Baig, Fahd; Ruffmann, Claudio; Gornall, Aimie; Klein, Johannes C; Lo, Christine; Dennis, Gary; Bandmann, Oliver; Quinnell, Timothy; Zaiwalla, Zenobia; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Hu, Michele TM

2017-01-01

Abstract Objectives Rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behavior disorder (RBD) is the most specific marker of prodromal alpha-synucleinopathies. We sought to delineate the baseline clinical characteristics of RBD and evaluate risk stratification models. Methods Clinical assessments were performed in 171 RBD, 296 control, and 119 untreated Parkinson’s (PD) participants. Putative risk measures were assessed as predictors of prodromal neurodegeneration, and Movement Disorders Society (MDS) criteria for prodromal PD were applied. Participants were screened for common leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2)/glucocerebrosidase gene (GBA) gene mutations. Results Compared to controls, participants with RBD had higher rates of solvent exposure, head injury, smoking, obesity, and antidepressant use. GBA mutations were more common in RBD, but no LRRK2 mutations were found. RBD participants performed significantly worse than controls on Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS)-III, timed “get-up-and-go”, Flamingo test, Sniffin Sticks, and cognitive tests and had worse measures of constipation, quality of life (QOL), and orthostatic hypotension. For all these measures except UPDRS-III, RBD and PD participants were equally impaired. Depression, anxiety, and apathy were worse in RBD compared to PD participants. Stratification of people with RBD according to antidepressant use, obesity, and age altered the odds ratio (OR) of hyposmia compared to controls from 3.4 to 45.5. 74% (95% confidence interval [CI] 66%, 80%) of RBD participants met the MDS criteria for probable prodromal Parkinson’s compared to 0.3% (95% CI 0.009%, 2%) of controls. Conclusions RBD are impaired across a range of clinical measures consistent with prodromal PD and suggestive of a more severe nonmotor subtype. Clinical risk stratification has the potential to select higher risk patients for neuroprotective interventions. PMID:28472425

Urothelial cancer of the upper urinary tract: emerging biomarkers and integrative models for risk stratification.

PubMed

Mathieu, Romain; Vartolomei, Mihai D; Mbeutcha, Aurélie; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Briganti, Alberto; Roupret, Morgan; Shariat, Shahrokh F

2016-08-01

The aim of this review was to provide an overview of current biomarkers and risk stratification models in urothelial cancer of the upper urinary tract (UTUC). A non-systematic Medline/PubMed literature search was performed using the terms "biomarkers", "preoperative models", "postoperative models", "risk stratification", together with "upper tract urothelial carcinoma". Original articles published between January 2003 and August 2015 were included based on their clinical relevance. Additional references were collected by cross referencing the bibliography of the selected articles. Various promising predictive and prognostic biomarkers have been identified in UTUC thanks to the increasing knowledge of the different biological pathways involved in UTUC tumorigenesis. These biomarkers may help identify tumors with aggressive biology and worse outcomes. Current tools aim at predicting muscle invasive or non-organ confined disease, renal failure after radical nephroureterectomy and survival outcomes. These models are still mainly based on imaging and clinicopathological feature and none has integrated biomarkers. Risk stratification in UTUC is still suboptimal, especially in the preoperative setting due to current limitations in staging and grading. Identification of novel biomarkers and external validation of current prognostic models may help improve risk stratification to allow evidence-based counselling for kidney-sparing approaches, perioperative chemotherapy and/or risk-based surveillance. Despite growing understanding of the biology underlying UTUC, management of this disease remains difficult due to the lack of validated biomarkers and the limitations of current predictive and prognostic tools. Further efforts and collaborations are necessaryry to allow their integration in daily practice.

Early and Late Recurrent Epistaxis Admissions: Patterns of Incidence and Risk Factors.

PubMed

Cohen, Oded; Shoffel-Havakuk, Hagit; Warman, Meir; Tzelnick, Sharon; Haimovich, Yaara; Kohlberg, Gavriel D; Halperin, Doron; Lahav, Yonatan

2017-09-01

Objective Epistaxis is a common complaint, yet few studies have focused on the incidence and risk factors of recurrent epistaxis. Our objective was to determine the patterns of incidence and risk factors for recurrent epistaxis admission (REA). Study Design Case series with chart review. Settings Single academic center. Subjects and Methods The medical records of patients admitted for epistaxis between 1999 and 2015 were reviewed. The follow-up period was defined as 3 years following initial admission. REAs were categorized as early (30 days) and late (31 days to 3 years) following initial admission. Logistic regression was used to identify potential predictors of REAs. Results A total of 653 patients were included. Eighty-six patients (14%) had REAs: 48 (7.5%) early and 38 (6.5%) late. Nonlinear incidence curve was demonstrated for both early and late REAs. Based on logistic regression, prior nasal surgery and anemia were independent risk factors for early REAs. According to multivariate analysis, thrombocytopenia was significantly associated with late REAs. Conclusion Early and late REAs demonstrate different risk predictors. Knowledge of such risk factors may help in risk stratification for this selected group of patients. All patients at risk should be advised on possible preventive measures. Patients at risk for early REA may benefit from a more proactive approach.

Unification of favourable intermediate-, unfavourable intermediate-, and very high-risk stratification criteria for prostate cancer.

PubMed

Zumsteg, Zachary S; Zelefsky, Michael J; Woo, Kaitlin M; Spratt, Daniel E; Kollmeier, Marisa A; McBride, Sean; Pei, Xin; Sandler, Howard M; Zhang, Zhigang

2017-11-01

To improve on the existing risk-stratification systems for prostate cancer. This was a retrospective investigation including 2 248 patients undergoing dose-escalated external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) at a single institution. We separated National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) intermediate-risk prostate cancer into 'favourable' and 'unfavourable' groups based on primary Gleason pattern, percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPBC), and number of NCCN intermediate-risk factors. Similarly, NCCN high-risk prostate cancer was stratified into 'standard' and 'very high-risk' groups based on primary Gleason pattern, PPBC, number of NCCN high-risk factors, and stage T3b-T4 disease. Patients with unfavourable-intermediate-risk (UIR) prostate cancer had significantly inferior prostate-specific antigen relapse-free survival (PSA-RFS, P < 0.001), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS, P < 0.001), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM, P < 0.001), and overall survival (OS, P < 0.001) compared with patients with favourable-intermediate-risk (FIR) prostate cancer. Similarly, patients with very high-risk (VHR) prostate cancer had significantly worse PSA-RFS (P < 0.001), DMFS (P < 0.001), and PCSM (P = 0.001) compared with patients with standard high-risk (SHR) prostate cancer. Moreover, patients with FIR and low-risk prostate cancer had similar outcomes, as did patients with UIR and SHR prostate cancer. Consequently, we propose the following risk-stratification system: Group 1, low risk and FIR; Group 2, UIR and SHR; and Group 3, VHR. These groups have markedly different outcomes, with 8-year distant metastasis rates of 3%, 9%, and 29% (P < 0.001) for Groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively, and 8-year PCSM of 1%, 4%, and 13% (P < 0.001) after EBRT. This modified stratification system was significantly more accurate than the three-tiered NCCN system currently in clinical use for all outcomes. Modifying the NCCN risk-stratification system to group FIR with low-risk patients and UIR

Use of risk stratification to guide ambulatory management of neutropenic fever. Australian Consensus Guidelines 2011 Steering Committee.

PubMed

Worth, L J; Lingaratnam, S; Taylor, A; Hayward, A M; Morrissey, S; Cooney, J; Bastick, P A; Eek, R W; Wei, A; Thursky, K A

2011-01-01

Utilization of risk-stratification tools in the setting of neutropenic fever is currently limited by inadequate knowledge and lack of awareness. Within this context, the approach to management of low-risk patients with neutropenic fever is inconsistent with the available evidence across many Australian treating centres. These clinical guidelines define and clarify an accepted standard of care for this patient group given the current evidence base. The Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer risk index is presented as the preferred risk assessment tool for determining patient risk. Suitability of ambulatory care within specific patient populations is discussed, with defined eligibility criteria provided to guide clinical decision-making. Detailed recommendations for implementing appropriate ambulatory strategies, such as early discharge and outpatient antibiotic therapy, are also provided. Due consideration is given to infrastructural requirements and other supportive measures at a resourcing and operational level. An analysis of the relevant health economics is also presented. © 2011 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2011 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

Syncope: risk stratification and clinical decision making.

PubMed

Peeters, Suzanne Y G; Hoek, Amber E; Mollink, Susan M; Huff, J Stephen

2014-04-01

Syncope is a common occurrence in the emergency department, accounting for approximately 1% to 3% of presentations. Syncope is best defined as a brief loss of consciousness and postural tone followed by spontaneous and complete recovery. The spectrum of etiologies ranges from benign to life threatening, and a structured approach to evaluating these patients is key to providing care that is thorough, yet cost-effective. This issue reviews the most relevant evidence for managing and risk stratifying the syncope patient, beginning with a focused history, physical examination, electrocardiogram, and tailored diagnostic testing. Several risk stratification decision rules are compared for performance in various scenarios, including how age and associated comorbidities may predict short-term and long-term adverse events. An algorithm for structured, evidence-based care of the syncope patient is included to ensure that patients requiring hospitalization are managed appropriately and those with benign causes are discharged safely.

Improving risk-stratification of Diabetes complications using temporal data mining.

PubMed

Sacchi, Lucia; Dagliati, Arianna; Segagni, Daniele; Leporati, Paola; Chiovato, Luca; Bellazzi, Riccardo

2015-01-01

To understand which factor trigger worsened disease control is a crucial step in Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) patient management. The MOSAIC project, funded by the European Commission under the FP7 program, has been designed to integrate heterogeneous data sources and provide decision support in chronic T2D management through patients' continuous stratification. In this work we show how temporal data mining can be fruitfully exploited to improve risk stratification. In particular, we exploit administrative data on drug purchases to divide patients in meaningful groups. The detection of drug consumption patterns allows stratifying the population on the basis of subjects' purchasing attitude. Merging these findings with clinical values indicates the relevance of the applied methods while showing significant differences in the identified groups. This extensive approach emphasized the exploitation of administrative data to identify patterns able to explain clinical conditions.

Prostate cancer: predicting high-risk prostate cancer-a novel stratification tool.

PubMed

Buck, Jessica; Chughtai, Bilal

2014-05-01

Currently, numerous systems exist for the identification of high-risk prostate cancer, but few of these systems can guide treatment strategies. A new stratification tool that uses common diagnostic factors can help to predict outcomes after radical prostatectomy. The tool aids physicians in the identification of appropriate candidates for aggressive, local treatment.

Risk stratification using lean body mass in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement.

PubMed

Hioki, Hirofumi; Watanabe, Yusuke; Kozuma, Ken; Yamamoto, Masanori; Naganuma, Toru; Araki, Motoharu; Tada, Norio; Shirai, Shinichi; Yamanaka, Futoshi; Higashimori, Akihiro; Mizutani, Kazuki; Tabata, Minoru; Takagi, Kensuke; Ueno, Hiroshi; Hayashida, Kentaro

2018-02-22

The prognostic impact of skeletal muscle mass, assessed using lean body mass (LBM), remain unclear in patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). The aim of this study to assess prognostic impact of LBM on mortality after TAVR. We assessed 1,613 patients (median age 85 years, 70% female) who underwent TAVI from October 2013 to April 2016 using OCEAN (Optimized transCathEter vAlvular interveNtion)-TAVI registry data. LBM was calculated using the James formula. The primary endpoint was all-cause death after TAVR. Median follow-up period was 287 days (interquartile range 110-462). The Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that patients with low LBM had significantly higher incidence of all-cause death than those with high LBM in male (32.3% vs. 9.9%, log rank P < 0.001) and female (15.8% vs. 9.2%, log-rank P = 0.011). On contrary, the risk stratification using body mass index (BMI) could not validate into female patients who underwent TAVR. The multivariate analysis showed that the LBM was an independent predictor of all-cause death in male (Hazard ratio [HR] 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.89-0.98) and female (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.89-0.99). Inversely, the assessment using BMI could not identify the high-risk population in a female. The patients with low LBM had the higher incidence of all-cause death after TAVR than those with high LBM, regardless of gender. Thus, the risk stratification using LBM might provide further insight to identify the high-risk TAVR population, compared to conventional risk stratification using BMI. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cytoplasmic expression of C-MYC protein is associated with risk stratification of mantle cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Gong, Yi; Zhang, Xi; Chen, Rui; Wei, Yan; Zou, Zhongmin; Chen, Xinghua

2017-01-01

To investigate the association of C-MYC protein expression and risk stratification in mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), and to evaluate the utility of C-MYC protein as a prognostic biomarker in clinical practice. We conducted immunohistochemical staining of C-MYC, Programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1), CD8, Ki-67, p53 and SRY (sex determining region Y) -11 (SOX11) to investigate their expression in 64 patients with MCL. The staining results and other clinical data were evaluated for their roles in risk stratification of MCL cases using ANOVA, Chi-square, and Spearman's Rank correlation coefficient analysis. Immunohistochemical staining in our study indicated that SOX11, Ki-67 and p53 presented nuclear positivity of tumor cells, CD8 showed membrane positivity in infiltrating T lymphocytes while PD-L1 showed membrane and cytoplasmic positivity mainly in macrophage cells and little in tumor cells. We observed positive staining of C-MYC either in the nucleus or cytoplasm or in both subcellular locations. There were significant differences in cytoplasmic C-MYC expression, Ki-67 proliferative index of tumor cells, and CD8 positive tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (CD8+TIL) among three risk groups ( P  = 0.000, P  = 0.037 and P =0.020, respectively). However, no significant differences existed in the expression of nuclear C-MYC, SOX11, p53, and PD-L1 in MCL patients with low-, intermediate-, and high risks. In addition, patient age and serum LDH level were also significantly different among 3 groups of patients ( P  = 0.006 and P  = 0.000, respectively). Spearman's rank correlation coefficient analysis indicated that cytoplasmic C-MYC expression, Ki-67 index, age, WBC, as well as LDH level had significantly positive correlations with risk stratification ( P  = 0.000, 0.015, 0.000, 0.029 and 0.000, respectively), while CD8+TIL in tumor microenvironment negatively correlated with risk stratification of patients ( P  = 0.006). Patients with increased positive

A novel metric that quantifies risk stratification for evaluating diagnostic tests: The example of evaluating cervical-cancer screening tests across populations.

PubMed

Katki, Hormuzd A; Schiffman, Mark

2018-05-01

Our work involves assessing whether new biomarkers might be useful for cervical-cancer screening across populations with different disease prevalences and biomarker distributions. When comparing across populations, we show that standard diagnostic accuracy statistics (predictive values, risk-differences, Youden's index and Area Under the Curve (AUC)) can easily be misinterpreted. We introduce an intuitively simple statistic for a 2 × 2 table, Mean Risk Stratification (MRS): the average change in risk (pre-test vs. post-test) revealed for tested individuals. High MRS implies better risk separation achieved by testing. MRS has 3 key advantages for comparing test performance across populations with different disease prevalences and biomarker distributions. First, MRS demonstrates that conventional predictive values and the risk-difference do not measure risk-stratification because they do not account for test-positivity rates. Second, Youden's index and AUC measure only multiplicative relative gains in risk-stratification: AUC = 0.6 achieves only 20% of maximum risk-stratification (AUC = 0.9 achieves 80%). Third, large relative gains in risk-stratification might not imply large absolute gains if disease is rare, demonstrating a "high-bar" to justify population-based screening for rare diseases such as cancer. We illustrate MRS by our experience comparing the performance of cervical-cancer screening tests in China vs. the USA. The test with the worst AUC = 0.72 in China (visual inspection with acetic acid) provides twice the risk-stratification (i.e. MRS) of the test with best AUC = 0.83 in the USA (human papillomavirus and Pap cotesting) because China has three times more cervical precancer/cancer. MRS could be routinely calculated to better understand the clinical/public-health implications of standard diagnostic accuracy statistics. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A three-gene expression signature model for risk stratification of patients with neuroblastoma.

PubMed

Garcia, Idoia; Mayol, Gemma; Ríos, José; Domenech, Gema; Cheung, Nai-Kong V; Oberthuer, André; Fischer, Matthias; Maris, John M; Brodeur, Garrett M; Hero, Barbara; Rodríguez, Eva; Suñol, Mariona; Galvan, Patricia; de Torres, Carmen; Mora, Jaume; Lavarino, Cinzia

2012-04-01

Neuroblastoma is an embryonal tumor with contrasting clinical courses. Despite elaborate stratification strategies, precise clinical risk assessment still remains a challenge. The purpose of this study was to develop a PCR-based predictor model to improve clinical risk assessment of patients with neuroblastoma. The model was developed using real-time PCR gene expression data from 96 samples and tested on separate expression data sets obtained from real-time PCR and microarray studies comprising 362 patients. On the basis of our prior study of differentially expressed genes in favorable and unfavorable neuroblastoma subgroups, we identified three genes, CHD5, PAFAH1B1, and NME1, strongly associated with patient outcome. The expression pattern of these genes was used to develop a PCR-based single-score predictor model. The model discriminated patients into two groups with significantly different clinical outcome [set 1: 5-year overall survival (OS): 0.93 ± 0.03 vs. 0.53 ± 0.06, 5-year event-free survival (EFS): 0.85 ± 0.04 vs. 0.042 ± 0.06, both P < 0.001; set 2 OS: 0.97 ± 0.02 vs. 0.61 ± 0.1, P = 0.005, EFS: 0.91 ± 0.8 vs. 0.56 ± 0.1, P = 0.005; and set 3 OS: 0.99 ± 0.01 vs. 0.56 ± 0.06, EFS: 0.96 ± 0.02 vs. 0.43 ± 0.05, both P < 0.001]. Multivariate analysis showed that the model was an independent marker for survival (P < 0.001, for all). In comparison with accepted risk stratification systems, the model robustly classified patients in the total cohort and in different clinically relevant risk subgroups. We propose for the first time in neuroblastoma, a technically simple PCR-based predictor model that could help refine current risk stratification systems. ©2012 AACR.

A Three-Gene Expression Signature Model for Risk Stratification of Patients with Neuroblastoma

PubMed Central

Garcia, Idoia; Mayol, Gemma; Ríos, José; Domenech, Gema; Cheung, Nai-Kong V.; Oberthuer, André; Fischer, Matthias; Maris, John M.; Brodeur, Garrett M.; Hero, Barbara; Rodríguez, Eva; Suñol, Mariona; Galvan, Patricia; de Torres, Carmen; Mora, Jaume; Lavarino, Cinzia

2014-01-01

Purpose Neuroblastoma is an embryonal tumor with contrasting clinical courses. Despite elaborate stratification strategies, precise clinical risk assessment still remains a challenge. The purpose of this study was to develop a PCR-based predictor model to improve clinical risk assessment of patients with neuroblastoma. Experimental Design The model was developed using real-time PCR gene expression data from 96 samples and tested on separate expression data sets obtained from real-time PCR and microarray studies comprising 362 patients. Results On the basis of our prior study of differentially expressed genes in favorable and unfavorable neuroblastoma subgroups, we identified three genes, CHD5, PAFAH1B1, and NME1, strongly associated with patient outcome. The expression pattern of these genes was used to develop a PCR-based single-score predictor model. The model discriminated patients into two groups with significantly different clinical outcome [set 1: 5-year overall survival (OS): 0.93 ± 0.03 vs. 0.53 ± 0.06, 5-year event-free survival (EFS): 0.85 ± 0.04 vs. 0.042 ± 0.06, both P < 0.001; set 2 OS: 0.97 ± 0.02 vs. 0.61 ± 0.1, P = 0.005, EFS: 0.91 ± 0.8 vs. 0.56 ± 0.1, P = 0.005; and set 3 OS: 0.99 ± 0.01 vs. 0.56 ± 0.06, EFS: 0.96 ± 0.02 vs. 0.43 ± 0.05, both P < 0.001]. Multivariate analysis showed that the model was an independent marker for survival (P < 0.001, for all). In comparison with accepted risk stratification systems, the model robustly classified patients in the total cohort and in different clinically relevant risk subgroups. Conclusion We propose for the first time in neuroblastoma, a technically simple PCR-based predictor model that could help refine current risk stratification systems. PMID:22328561

A Risk Stratification Model for Lung Cancer Based on Gene Coexpression Network and Deep Learning

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Risk stratification model for lung cancer with gene expression profile is of great interest. Instead of previous models based on individual prognostic genes, we aimed to develop a novel system-level risk stratification model for lung adenocarcinoma based on gene coexpression network. Using multiple microarray, gene coexpression network analysis was performed to identify survival-related networks. A deep learning based risk stratification model was constructed with representative genes of these networks. The model was validated in two test sets. Survival analysis was performed using the output of the model to evaluate whether it could predict patients' survival independent of clinicopathological variables. Five networks were significantly associated with patients' survival. Considering prognostic significance and representativeness, genes of the two survival-related networks were selected for input of the model. The output of the model was significantly associated with patients' survival in two test sets and training set (p < 0.00001, p < 0.0001 and p = 0.02 for training and test sets 1 and 2, resp.). In multivariate analyses, the model was associated with patients' prognosis independent of other clinicopathological features. Our study presents a new perspective on incorporating gene coexpression networks into the gene expression signature and clinical application of deep learning in genomic data science for prognosis prediction. PMID:29581968

Risk stratification and staging in prostate cancer with prostatic specific membrane antigen PET/CTObjective: A one-stop-shop.

PubMed

Gupta, Manoj; Choudhury, Partha Sarathi; Rawal, Sudhir; Goel, Harish Chandra; Singh, Amitabh; Talwar, Vineet; Sahoo, Saroj Kumar

2017-01-01

Current imaging modalities for prostate cancer (PC) had limitations for risk stratification and staging. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) frequently underestimated lymphatic metastasis while bone scintigraphy often had diagnostic dilemmas. Prostatic specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET/CT) has been remarkable in diagnosing PC recurrence and staging. We hypothesized it can become one-stop-shop for initial risk stratification and staging. Ninety seven PSMA PET-CT studies were re analysed for tumor node metastases (TNM) staging and risk stratification of lymphatic and distant metastases proportion. The histopathology of 23/97 patients was available as gold standard. Chi-square test was used for proportion comparison. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), over-estimation, under-estimation and correct-estimation of T and N stages were calculated. Cohen's kappa coefficient (k) was derived for inter-rater agreement. Lymphic or distant metastases detection on PSMA PET/CT increased significantly with increase in risk category. PSMA PET/CT sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for extra prostatic extension (EPE), seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) and lymphatic metastases were 63.16%, 100%, 100%, 36.36% & 55%, 100%, 100%, 25% and 65.62%, 99.31%, 87.50%, 97.53%, respectively. Cohen's kappa coefficient showed substantial agreement between PSMA PET/CT and histopathological lymphic metastases (κ 0.734) however, it was just in fair agreement (κ 0.277) with T stage. PSMA PET/CT over-estimated, under-estimated and correct-estimated T and N stages in 8.71%, 39.13%, 52.17% and 8.71%, 4.35%, 86.96% cases, respectively. We found that PSMA PET/CT has potential for initial risk stratifications with reasonable correct estimation for N stage. However, it can underestimate T stage. Hence, we suggest that PSMA PET/CT should be used for staging and initial risk stratification of PC as one

Risk Stratification in Arrhythmic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Without Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillators

PubMed Central

Brun, Francesca; Groeneweg, Judith A.; Gear, Kathleen; Sinagra, Gianfranco; van der Heijden, Jeroen; Mestroni, Luisa; Hauer, Richard N.; Borgstrom, Mark; Marcus, Frank I.; Hughes, Trina

2016-01-01

Objectives The primary objective of this study is risk stratification of patients with arrhythmic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC). Background There is a need to identify those who need an automatic implantable defibrillator (ICD) to prevent sudden death. Methods This is an analysis of 88 patients with ARVC from three centers who were not treated with an ICD. Results Risk factors for subsequent arrhythmic deaths were pre-enrollment sustained or nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) and decreased left ventricular function. Conclusion These factors serve as proposed guidelines for implantation of an ICD in patients with ARVC to prevent sudden death. PMID:27790640

An ischemia-guided approach for risk stratification in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

PubMed

Pepine, C J

2000-12-28

attention to early risk stratification is essential in the ischemia-guided approach. The Braunwald classification for unstable angina helps identify independent clinical predictors of a poor outcome; high risk is clearly associated with Braunwald class III and type C. Electrocardiographic and biochemical markers for myocardial necrosis (cardiac troponin T or I) are important tools for assessing the presence and degree of ischemia and associated risk for adverse outcome. Noninvasive evaluation of left ventricular ejection fraction is essential for identifying those at high risk due to impaired contractile function. When these conventional markers do not provide conclusive information, noninvasive stress testing is most helpful to further identify those at highest risk for revascularization.

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

PubMed Central

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

Analysis of agreement between cardiac risk stratification protocols applied to participants of a center for cardiac rehabilitation

PubMed Central

Santos, Ana A. S.; Silva, Anne K. F.; Vanderlei, Franciele M.; Christofaro, Diego G. D.; Gonçalves, Aline F. L.; Vanderlei, Luiz C. M.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Background Cardiac risk stratification is related to the risk of the occurrence of events induced by exercise. Despite the existence of several protocols to calculate risk stratification, studies indicating that there is similarity between these protocols are still unknown. Objective To evaluate the agreement between the existing protocols on cardiac risk rating in cardiac patients. Method The records of 50 patients from a cardiac rehabilitation program were analyzed, from which the following information was extracted: age, sex, weight, height, clinical diagnosis, medical history, risk factors, associated diseases, and the results from the most recent laboratory and complementary tests performed. This information was used for risk stratification of the patients in the protocols of the American College of Sports Medicine, the Brazilian Society of Cardiology, the American Heart Association, the protocol designed by Frederic J. Pashkow, the American Association of Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Rehabilitation, the Société Française de Cardiologie, and the Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the sample and the analysis of agreement between the protocols was calculated using the Kappa coefficient. Differences were considered with a significance level of 5%. Results Of the 21 analyses of agreement, 12 were considered significant between the protocols used for risk classification, with nine classified as moderate and three as low. No agreements were classified as excellent. Different proportions were observed in each risk category, with significant differences between the protocols for all risk categories. Conclusion The agreements between the protocols were considered low and moderate and the risk proportions differed between protocols. PMID:27556385

Risk stratification of childhood medulloblastoma in the molecular era: the current consensus.

PubMed

Ramaswamy, Vijay; Remke, Marc; Bouffet, Eric; Bailey, Simon; Clifford, Steven C; Doz, Francois; Kool, Marcel; Dufour, Christelle; Vassal, Gilles; Milde, Till; Witt, Olaf; von Hoff, Katja; Pietsch, Torsten; Northcott, Paul A; Gajjar, Amar; Robinson, Giles W; Padovani, Laetitia; André, Nicolas; Massimino, Maura; Pizer, Barry; Packer, Roger; Rutkowski, Stefan; Pfister, Stefan M; Taylor, Michael D; Pomeroy, Scott L

2016-06-01

Historical risk stratification criteria for medulloblastoma rely primarily on clinicopathological variables pertaining to age, presence of metastases, extent of resection, histological subtypes and in some instances individual genetic aberrations such as MYC and MYCN amplification. In 2010, an international panel of experts established consensus defining four main subgroups of medulloblastoma (WNT, SHH, Group 3 and Group 4) delineated by transcriptional profiling. This has led to the current generation of biomarker-driven clinical trials assigning WNT tumors to a favorable prognosis group in addition to clinicopathological criteria including MYC and MYCN gene amplifications. However, outcome prediction of non-WNT subgroups is a challenge due to inconsistent survival reports. In 2015, a consensus conference was convened in Heidelberg with the objective to further refine the risk stratification in the context of subgroups and agree on a definition of risk groups of non-infant, childhood medulloblastoma (ages 3-17). Published and unpublished data over the past 5 years were reviewed, and a consensus was reached regarding the level of evidence for currently available biomarkers. The following risk groups were defined based on current survival rates: low risk (>90 % survival), average (standard) risk (75-90 % survival), high risk (50-75 % survival) and very high risk (<50 % survival) disease. The WNT subgroup and non-metastatic Group 4 tumors with whole chromosome 11 loss or whole chromosome 17 gain were recognized as low-risk tumors that may qualify for reduced therapy. High-risk strata were defined as patients with metastatic SHH or Group 4 tumors, or MYCN-amplified SHH medulloblastomas. Very high-risk patients are Group 3 with metastases or SHH with TP53 mutation. In addition, a number of consensus points were reached that should be standardized across future clinical trials. Although we anticipate new data will emerge from currently ongoing and recently

Risk stratification of childhood medulloblastoma in the molecular era: The Current Consensus

PubMed Central

Ramaswamy, Vijay; Remke, Marc; Bouffet, Eric; Bailey, Simon; Clifford, Steven C.; Doz, Francois; Kool, Marcel; Dufour, Christelle; Vassal, Gilles; Milde, Till; Witt, Olaf; von Hoff, Katja; Pietsch, Torsten; Northcott, Paul A.; Gajjar, Amar; Robinson, Giles W.; Padovani, Laetitia; André, Nicolas; Massimino, Maura; Pizer, Barry; Packer, Roger; Rutkowski, Stefan; Pfister, Stefan M.; Taylor, Michael D.; Pomeroy, Scott L.

2016-01-01

Historical risk stratification criteria for medulloblastoma rely primarily on clinicopathological variables pertaining to age, presence of metastases, extent of resection, histological subtypes and in some instances individual genetic aberrations such as MYC and MYCN amplification. In 2010, an international panel of experts established consensus defining four main subgroups of medulloblastoma (WNT, SHH, Group 3 and Group 4) delineated by transcriptional profiling. This has led to the current generation of biomarker-driven clinical trials assigning WNT tumors to a favorable prognosis group in addition to clinicopathological criteria including MYC and MYCN gene amplifications. However, outcome prediction of non-WNT subgroups is a challenge due to inconsistent survival reports. In 2015, a consensus conference was convened in Heidelberg with the objective to further refine the risk stratification in the context of subgroups and agree on a definition of risk groups of non-infant, childhood medulloblastoma (ages 3–17). Published and unpublished data over the past five years were reviewed, and a consensus was reached regarding the level of evidence for currently available biomarkers. The following risk groups were defined based on current survival rates: low risk (>90% survival), average (standard) risk (75–90% survival), high risk (50–75% survival) and very high risk (<50% survival) disease. The WNT subgroup and non-metastatic Group 4 tumors with whole chromosome 11 loss or whole chromosome 17 gain were recognized as low risk tumors that may qualify for reduced therapy. High-risk strata were defined as patients with metastatic SHH or Group 4 tumors, or MYCN amplified SHH medulloblastomas. Very high-risk patients are Group 3 with metastases or SHH with TP53 mutation. In addition, a number of consensus points were reached that should be standardized across future clinical trials. Although we anticipate new data will emerge from currently ongoing and recently

Raynaud’s phenomenon and digital ischemia: a practical approach to risk stratification, diagnosis and management

PubMed Central

McMahan, Zsuzsanna H.; Wigley, Fredrick M.

2015-01-01

Digital ischemia is a painful and often disfiguring event. Such an ischemic event often leads to tissue loss and can significantly affect the patient’s quality of life. Digital ischemia can be secondary to a vasculopathy, vasculitis, embolic disease, trauma, or extrinsic vascular compression. It is an especially serious complication in patients with scleroderma. Risk stratification of patients with scleroderma at risk for digital ischemia is now possible with clinical assessment and autoantibody profiles. Because there are a variety of conditions that lead to digital ischemia, it is important to understand the pathophysiology underlying each ischemic presentation in order to target therapy appropriately. Significant progress has been made in the last two decades in defining the pathophysiological processes leading to digital ischemia in rheumatic diseases. In this article we review the risk stratification, diagnosis, and management of patients with digital ischemia and provide a practical approach to therapy, particularly in scleroderma. PMID:26523153

Standardized reporting guidelines for emergency department syncope risk-stratification research.

PubMed

Sun, Benjamin C; Thiruganasambandamoorthy, Venkatesh; Cruz, Jeffrey Dela

2012-06-01

There is increasing research interest in the risk stratification of emergency department (ED) syncope patients. A major barrier to comparing and synthesizing existing research is wide variation in the conduct and reporting of studies. The authors wanted to create standardized reporting guidelines for ED syncope risk-stratification research using an expert consensus process. In that pursuit, a panel of syncope researchers was convened and a literature review was performed to identify candidate reporting guideline elements. Candidate elements were grouped into four sections: eligibility criteria, outcomes, electrocardiogram (ECG) findings, and predictors. A two-round, modified Delphi consensus process was conducted using an Internet-based survey application. In the first round, candidate elements were rated on a five-point Likert scale. In the second round, panelists rerated items after receiving information about group ratings from the first round. Items that were rated by >80% of the panelists at the two highest levels of the Likert scale were included in the final guidelines. There were 24 panelists from eight countries who represented five clinical specialties. The panel identified an initial set of 183 candidate elements. After two survey rounds, the final reporting guidelines included 92 items that achieved >80% consensus. These included 10 items for study eligibility, 23 items for outcomes, nine items for ECG abnormalities, and 50 items for candidate predictors. Adherence to these guidelines should facilitate comparison of future research in this area. © 2012 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Developing and validating a novel metabolic tumor volume risk stratification system for supplementing non-small cell lung cancer staging.

PubMed

Pu, Yonglin; Zhang, James X; Liu, Haiyan; Appelbaum, Daniel; Meng, Jianfeng; Penney, Bill C

2018-06-07

We hypothesized that whole-body metabolic tumor volume (MTVwb) could be used to supplement non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) staging due to its independent prognostic value. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a novel MTVwb risk stratification system to supplement NSCLC staging. We performed an IRB-approved retrospective review of 935 patients with NSCLC and FDG-avid tumor divided into modeling and validation cohorts based on the type of PET/CT scanner used for imaging. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted by dividing the patient population into two randomized cohorts. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed to determine the prognostic value of the MTVwb risk stratification system. The cut-off values (10.0, 53.4 and 155.0 mL) between the MTVwb quartiles of the modeling cohort were applied to both the modeling and validation cohorts to determine each patient's MTVwb risk stratum. The survival analyses showed that a lower MTVwb risk stratum was associated with better overall survival (all p < 0.01), independent of TNM stage together with other clinical prognostic factors, and the discriminatory power of the MTVwb risk stratification system, as measured by Gönen and Heller's concordance index, was not significantly different from that of TNM stage in both cohorts. Also, the prognostic value of the MTVwb risk stratum was robust in the two randomized cohorts. The discordance rate between the MTVwb risk stratum and TNM stage or substage was 45.1% in the modeling cohort and 50.3% in the validation cohort. This study developed and validated a novel MTVwb risk stratification system, which has prognostic value independent of the TNM stage and other clinical prognostic factors in NSCLC, suggesting that it could be used for further NSCLC pretreatment assessment and for refining treatment decisions in individual patients.

68Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT: a promising new technique for predicting risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer patients.

PubMed

Liu, Chen; Liu, Teli; Zhang, Ning; Liu, Yiqiang; Li, Nan; Du, Peng; Yang, Yong; Liu, Ming; Gong, Kan; Yang, Xing; Zhu, Hua; Yan, Kun; Yang, Zhi

2018-05-02

The purpose of this study was to investigate the performance of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT in predicting risk stratification and metastatic risk of prostate cancer. Fifty newly diagnosed patients with prostate cancer as confirmed by needle biopsy were continuously included, 40 in a train set and ten in a test set. 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT and clinical data of all patients were retrospectively analyzed. Semi-quantitative analysis of PET images provided maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax) of primary prostate cancer and volumetric parameters including intraprostatic PSMA-derived tumor volume (iPSMA-TV) and intraprostatic total lesion PSMA (iTL-PSMA). According to prostate cancer risk stratification criteria of the NCCN Guideline, all patients were simplified into a low-intermediate risk group or a high-risk group. The semi-quantitative parameters of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT were used to establish a univariate logistic regression model for high-risk prostate cancer and its metastatic risk, and to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of the predictive model. In the train set, 30/40 (75%) patients had high-risk prostate cancer and 10/40 (25%) patients had low-to-moderate-risk prostate cancer; in the test set, 8/10 (80%) patients had high-risk prostate cancer while 2/10 (20%) had low-intermediate risk prostate cancer. The univariate logistic regression model established with SUVmax, iPSMA-TV and iTL-PSMA could all effectively predict high-risk prostate cancer; the AUC of ROC were 0.843, 0.802 and 0.900, respectively. Based on the test set, the sensitivity and specificity of each model were 87.5% and 50% for SUVmax, 62.5% and 100% for iPSMA-TV, and 87.5% and 100% for iTL-PSMA, respectively. The iPSMA-TV and iTL-PSMA-based predictive model could predict the metastatic risk of prostate cancer, the AUC of ROC was 0.863 and 0.848, respectively, but the SUVmax-based prediction model could not predict metastatic risk. Semi-quantitative analysis indexes of 68 Ga-PSMA-617 PET/CT imaging can be

Degree of Agreement between Cardiovascular Risk Stratification Tools.

PubMed

Garcia, Guilherme Thomé; Stamm, Ana Maria Nunes de Faria; Rosa, Ariel Córdova; Marasciulo, Antônio Carlos; Marasciulo, Rodrigo Conill; Battistella, Cristian; Remor, Alexandre Augusto de Costa

2017-05-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Brazil, and primary prevention care may be guided by risk stratification tools. The Framingham (FRS) and QRISK-2 (QRS) risk scores estimate 10-year overall cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic individuals, but the instrument of choice may lead to different therapeutic strategies. To evaluate the degree of agreement between FRS and QRS in 10-year overall cardiovascular risk stratification in disease-free individuals. Cross-sectional, observational, descriptive and analytical study in a convenience sample of 74 individuals attending the outpatient care service of a university hospital in Brazil between January 2014 and January 2015. After application of FRS and QRS, patients were classified in low/moderate risk (< 20%) or high risk (≥ 20%). The proportion of individuals classified as at high risk was higher in FRS than in QRS (33.7% vs 21.6%). A synergic effect of male gender with systemic arterial hypertension was observed in both tools, and with for geriatric age group in QRS (p < 0.05) in high-risk stratum. The Kappa index was 0.519 (95%CI = 0.386-0.652; p < 0.001) between both instruments. There was a moderate agreement between FRS and QRS in estimating 10-year overall cardiovascular risk. The risk scores used in this study can identify synergism between variables, and their behavior is influenced by the population in which it was derived. It is important to recognize the need for calibrating risk scores for the Brazilian population. A doença cardiovascular (DCV) é a principal causa de morbimortalidade no Brasil, e a prevenção primária pode ser direcionada com ferramentas que estratificam o risco. Os escores de Framingham (ERF) e QRISK-2 (ERQ) estimam o risco cardiovascular (RCV) global em 10 anos em indivíduos assintomáticos, mas a escolha do instrumento pode implicar em terapêuticas distintas. Observar o grau de concordância entre o ERF e o ERQ, na estratificação do

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

PubMed

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-04-15

Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require

Stroke Risk Stratification and its Validation using Ultrasonic Echolucent Carotid Wall Plaque Morphology: A Machine Learning Paradigm.

PubMed

Araki, Tadashi; Jain, Pankaj K; Suri, Harman S; Londhe, Narendra D; Ikeda, Nobutaka; El-Baz, Ayman; Shrivastava, Vimal K; Saba, Luca; Nicolaides, Andrew; Shafique, Shoaib; Laird, John R; Gupta, Ajay; Suri, Jasjit S

2017-01-01

Stroke risk stratification based on grayscale morphology of the ultrasound carotid wall has recently been shown to have a promise in classification of high risk versus low risk plaque or symptomatic versus asymptomatic plaques. In previous studies, this stratification has been mainly based on analysis of the far wall of the carotid artery. Due to the multifocal nature of atherosclerotic disease, the plaque growth is not restricted to the far wall alone. This paper presents a new approach for stroke risk assessment by integrating assessment of both the near and far walls of the carotid artery using grayscale morphology of the plaque. Further, this paper presents a scientific validation system for stroke risk assessment. Both these innovations have never been presented before. The methodology consists of an automated segmentation system of the near wall and far wall regions in grayscale carotid B-mode ultrasound scans. Sixteen grayscale texture features are computed, and fed into the machine learning system. The training system utilizes the lumen diameter to create ground truth labels for the stratification of stroke risk. The cross-validation procedure is adapted in order to obtain the machine learning testing classification accuracy through the use of three sets of partition protocols: (5, 10, and Jack Knife). The mean classification accuracy over all the sets of partition protocols for the automated system in the far and near walls is 95.08% and 93.47%, respectively. The corresponding accuracies for the manual system are 94.06% and 92.02%, respectively. The precision of merit of the automated machine learning system when compared against manual risk assessment system are 98.05% and 97.53% for the far and near walls, respectively. The ROC of the risk assessment system for the far and near walls is close to 1.0 demonstrating high accuracy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Overcoming intratumoural heterogeneity for reproducible molecular risk stratification: a case study in advanced kidney cancer.

PubMed

Lubbock, Alexander L R; Stewart, Grant D; O'Mahony, Fiach C; Laird, Alexander; Mullen, Peter; O'Donnell, Marie; Powles, Thomas; Harrison, David J; Overton, Ian M

2017-06-26

Metastatic clear cell renal cell cancer (mccRCC) portends a poor prognosis and urgently requires better clinical tools for prognostication as well as for prediction of response to treatment. Considerable investment in molecular risk stratification has sought to overcome the performance ceiling encountered by methods restricted to traditional clinical parameters. However, replication of results has proven challenging, and intratumoural heterogeneity (ITH) may confound attempts at tissue-based stratification. We investigated the influence of confounding ITH on the performance of a novel molecular prognostic model, enabled by pathologist-guided multiregion sampling (n = 183) of geographically separated mccRCC cohorts from the SuMR trial (development, n = 22) and the SCOTRRCC study (validation, n = 22). Tumour protein levels quantified by reverse phase protein array (RPPA) were investigated alongside clinical variables. Regularised wrapper selection identified features for Cox multivariate analysis with overall survival as the primary endpoint. The optimal subset of variables in the final stratification model consisted of N-cadherin, EPCAM, Age, mTOR (NEAT). Risk groups from NEAT had a markedly different prognosis in the validation cohort (log-rank p = 7.62 × 10 -7 ; hazard ratio (HR) 37.9, 95% confidence interval 4.1-353.8) and 2-year survival rates (accuracy = 82%, Matthews correlation coefficient = 0.62). Comparisons with established clinico-pathological scores suggest favourable performance for NEAT (Net reclassification improvement 7.1% vs International Metastatic Database Consortium score, 25.4% vs Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center score). Limitations include the relatively small cohorts and associated wide confidence intervals on predictive performance. Our multiregion sampling approach enabled investigation of NEAT validation when limiting the number of samples analysed per tumour, which significantly degraded performance

Risk stratification of ambulatory patients with advanced heart failure undergoing evaluation for heart transplantation.

PubMed

Kato, Tomoko S; Stevens, Gerin R; Jiang, Jeffrey; Schulze, P Christian; Gukasyan, Natalie; Lippel, Matthew; Levin, Alison; Homma, Shunichi; Mancini, Donna; Farr, Maryjane

2013-03-01

Risk stratification of ambulatory heart failure (HF) patients has relied on peak VO(2)<14 ml/kg/min. We investigated whether additional clinical variables might further specify risk of death, ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation (INTERMACS <4) or heart transplantation (HTx, Status 1A or 1B) within 1 year after HTx evaluation. We hypothesized that right ventricular stroke work index (RVSWI), pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) and the model for end-stage liver disease-albumin score (MELD-A) would be additive prognostic predictors. We retrospectively collected data on 151 ambulatory patients undergoing HTx evaluation. Primary outcomes were defined as HTx, LVAD or death within 1 year after evaluation. Average age in our cohort was 55 ± 11.1 years, 79.1% were male and 39% had an ischemic etiology (LVEF 21 ± 10.5% and peak VO(2) 12.6 ± 3.5 ml/kg/min). Fifty outcomes (33.1%) were observed (27 HTxs, 15 VADs and 8 deaths). Univariate logistic regression showed a significant association of RVSWI (OR 0.47, p = 0.036), PCWP (OR 2.65, p = 0.007) and MELD-A (OR 2.73, p = 0.006) with 1-year events. Stepwise regression showed an independent correlation of RVSWI<5gm-m(2)/beat (OR 6.70, p < 0.01), PCWP>20 mm Hg (OR 5.48, p < 0.01), MELD-A>14 (OR 3.72, p< 0.01) and peak VO(2)<14 ml/kg/min (OR 3.36, p = 0.024) with 1-year events. A scoring system was developed: MELD-A>14 and peak VO(2)<14-1 point each; and PCWP>20 and RVSWI<5-2 points each. A cut-off at≥4 demonstrated a 54% sensitivity and 88% specificity for 1-year events. Ambulatory HF patients have significant 1-year event rates. Risk stratification based on exercise performance, left-sided congestion, right ventricular dysfunction and liver congestion allows prediction of 1-year prognosis. Our findings support early and timely referral for VAD and/or transplant. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stratification of the Risk of Sudden Death in Nonischemic Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Pimentel, Maurício; Zimerman, Leandro Ioschpe; Rohde, Luis Eduardo

2014-01-01

Despite significant therapeutic advancements, heart failure remains a highly prevalent clinical condition associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In 30%-40% patients, the etiology of heart failure is nonischemic. The implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is capable of preventing sudden death and decreasing total mortality in patients with nonischemic heart failure. However, a significant number of patients receiving ICD do not receive any kind of therapy during follow-up. Moreover, considering the situation in Brazil and several other countries, ICD cannot be implanted in all patients with nonischemic heart failure. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify patients at an increased risk of sudden death because these would benefit more than patients at a lower risk, despite the presence of heart failure in both risk groups. In this study, the authors review the primary available methods for the stratification of the risk of sudden death in patients with nonischemic heart failure. PMID:25352509

Prognostic factors and risk stratification in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer receiving docetaxel-based chemotherapy.

PubMed

Yamashita, Shimpei; Kohjimoto, Yasuo; Iguchi, Takashi; Koike, Hiroyuki; Kusumoto, Hiroki; Iba, Akinori; Kikkawa, Kazuro; Kodama, Yoshiki; Matsumura, Nagahide; Hara, Isao

2016-03-22

While novel drugs have been developed, docetaxel remains one of the standard initial systemic therapies for castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) patients. Despite the excellent anti-tumor effect of docetaxel, its severe adverse effects sometimes distress patients. Therefore, it would be very helpful to predict the efficacy of docetaxel before treatment. The aims of this study were to evaluate the potential value of patient characteristics in predicting overall survival (OS) and to develop a risk classification for CRPC patients treated with docetaxel-based chemotherapy. This study included 79 patients with CRPC treated with docetaxel. The variables, including patient characteristics at diagnosis and at the start of chemotherapy, were retrospectively collected. Prognostic factors predicting OS were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model. Risk stratification for overall survival was determined based on the results of multivariate analysis. PSA response ≥50 % was observed in 55 (69.6 %) of all patients, and the median OS was 22.5 months. The multivariate analysis showed that age, serum PSA level at the start of chemotherapy, and Hb were independent prognostic factors for OS. In addition, ECOG performance status (PS) and the CRP-to-albumin ratio were not significant but were considered possible predictors for OS. Risk stratification according to the number of these risk factors could effectively stratify CRPC patients treated with docetaxel in terms of OS. Age, serum PSA level at the start of chemotherapy, and Hb were identified as independent prognostic factors of OS. ECOG PS and the CRP-to-albumin ratio were not significant, but were considered possible predictors for OS in Japanese CRPC patients treated with docetaxel. Risk stratification based on these factors could be helpful for estimating overall survival.

Risk stratification of prostate cancer: integrating multiparametric MRI, nomograms and biomarkers

PubMed Central

Watson, Matthew J; George, Arvin K; Maruf, Mahir; Frye, Thomas P; Muthigi, Akhil; Kongnyuy, Michael; Valayil, Subin G; Pinto, Peter A

2016-01-01

Accurate risk stratification of prostate cancer is achieved with a number of existing tools to ensure the identification of at-risk patients, characterization of disease aggressiveness, prediction of cancer burden and extrapolation of treatment outcomes for appropriate management of the disease. Statistical tables and nomograms using classic clinicopathological variables have long been the standard of care. However, the introduction of multiparametric MRI, along with fusion-guided targeted prostate biopsy and novel biomarkers, are being assimilated into clinical practice. The majority of studies to date present the outcomes of each in isolation. The current review offers a critical and objective assessment regarding the integration of multiparametric MRI and fusion-guided prostate biopsy with novel biomarkers and predictive nomograms in contemporary clinical practice. PMID:27400645

A clinical risk stratification tool for predicting treatment resistance in major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Perlis, Roy H

2013-07-01

Early identification of depressed individuals at high risk for treatment resistance could be helpful in selecting optimal setting and intensity of care. At present, validated tools to facilitate this risk stratification are rarely used in psychiatric practice. Data were drawn from the first two treatment levels of a multicenter antidepressant effectiveness study in major depressive disorder, the STAR*D (Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression) cohort. This cohort was divided into training, testing, and validation subsets. Only clinical or sociodemographic variables available by or readily amenable to self-report were considered. Multivariate models were developed to discriminate individuals reaching remission with a first or second pharmacological treatment trial from those not reaching remission despite two trials. A logistic regression model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve exceeding .71 in training, testing, and validation cohorts and maintained good calibration across cohorts. Performance of three alternative models with machine learning approaches--a naïve Bayes classifier and a support vector machine, and a random forest model--was less consistent. Similar performance was observed between more and less severe depression, men and women, and primary versus specialty care sites. A web-based calculator was developed that implements this tool and provides graphical estimates of risk. Risk for treatment resistance among outpatients with major depressive disorder can be estimated with a simple model incorporating baseline sociodemographic and clinical features. Future studies should examine the performance of this model in other clinical populations and its utility in treatment selection or clinical trial design. Copyright © 2013 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Interoperable System toward Cardiac Risk Stratification from ECG Monitoring

PubMed Central

Mora-Jiménez, Inmaculada; Ramos-López, Javier; Quintanilla Fernández, Teresa; García-García, Antonio; Díez-Mazuela, Daniel; García-Alberola, Arcadi

2018-01-01

Many indices have been proposed for cardiovascular risk stratification from electrocardiogram signal processing, still with limited use in clinical practice. We created a system integrating the clinical definition of cardiac risk subdomains from ECGs and the use of diverse signal processing techniques. Three subdomains were defined from the joint analysis of the technical and clinical viewpoints. One subdomain was devoted to demographic and clinical data. The other two subdomains were intended to obtain widely defined risk indices from ECG monitoring: a simple-domain (heart rate turbulence (HRT)), and a complex-domain (heart rate variability (HRV)). Data provided by the three subdomains allowed for the generation of alerts with different intensity and nature, as well as for the grouping and scrutinization of patients according to the established processing and risk-thresholding criteria. The implemented system was tested by connecting data from real-world in-hospital electronic health records and ECG monitoring by considering standards for syntactic (HL7 messages) and semantic interoperability (archetypes based on CEN/ISO EN13606 and SNOMED-CT). The system was able to provide risk indices and to generate alerts in the health records to support decision-making. Overall, the system allows for the agile interaction of research and clinical practice in the Holter-ECG-based cardiac risk domain. PMID:29494497

Stratification strategy for evaluating the influence of diabetes complication severity index on the risk of hospitalization: a record linkage data in Western Australia.

PubMed

Ha, Ninh Thi; Harris, Mark; Robinson, Suzanne; Preen, David; Moorin, Rachael

2017-07-01

This study aimed to develop a risk stratification strategy for evaluating the relationship between complications of diabetes and the risk of diabetic-related hospitalization to accurately classify diabetes severity. The study used administrative health records for 40,624 individuals with diabetes aged ≥18years in Western Australian. The adapted Diabetes Complication Severity Index (DCSI), socio-demographic and clinical characteristics were used in random effects negative binomial and threshold effect models to determine the optimal stratification strategy for diabetes severity based on the homogeneity of the risk of hospitalization in response to variation of the DCSI. The optimal stratification of people with diabetes was specified by four sub-populations. The first sub-population was no complications with an inverse association with the risk of hospitalizations (coefficient-0.247, SE 0.03). Further three sub-populations with DCSI at one (coefficient 0.289, SE 0.01), two (coefficient 0.339, SE 0.01) and three or more (coefficient 0.381, SE 0.01) were used to accurately describe the impact of DCSI on the risk of hospitalization. A stratification into four subpopulations based on the homogeneous impact of diabetes DCSI on the risk of hospitalization may be more suitable for evaluating health care interventions and planning health care provision. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk stratification for death and all-cause hospitalization in heart failure clinic outpatients.

PubMed

Hummel, Scott L; Ghalib, Hussam H; Ratz, David; Koelling, Todd M

2013-11-01

Most heart failure (HF) risk stratification models were developed for inpatient use, and available outpatient models use a complex set of variables. We hypothesized that routinely collected clinical data could predict the 6-month risk of death and all-cause medical hospitalization in HF clinic outpatients. Using a quality improvement database and multivariable Cox modeling, we derived the Heart Failure Patient Severity Index (HFPSI) in the University of Michigan HF clinic (UM cohort, n = 1,536; 314 reached primary outcome). We externally validated the HFPSI in the Ann Arbor Veterans' Affairs HF clinic (VA cohort, n = 445; 106 outcomes) and explored "real-time" HFPSI use (VA-RT cohort, n = 486; 141 outcomes) by tracking VA patients for 6 months from their most recently calculated HFPSI, rather than using an arbitrary start date for the cohort. The HFPSI model included blood urea nitrogen, B-type natriuretic peptide, New York Heart Association class, diabetes status, history of atrial fibrillation/flutter, and all-cause hospitalization within the prior 1 and 2 to 6 months. The concordance c statistics in the UM/VA/VA-RT cohorts were 0.71/0.68/0.74. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank testing demonstrated excellent risk stratification, particularly between a large, low-risk group (40% of patients, 6-month event rates in the UM/VA/VA-RT cohorts 8%/12%/12%) and a small, high-risk group (10% of patients, 6-month event rates in the UM/VA/VA-RT cohorts 57%/58%/79%). The HFPSI uses readily available data to predict the 6-month risk of death and/or all-cause medical hospitalization in HF clinic outpatients and could potentially help allocate specialized HF resources within health systems. © 2013.

The evolving field of prognostication and risk stratification in MDS: Recent developments and future directions.

PubMed

Lee, Eun-Ju; Podoltsev, Nikolai; Gore, Steven D; Zeidan, Amer M

2016-01-01

The clinical course of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) is characterized by wide variability reflecting the underlying genetic and biological heterogeneity of the disease. Accurate prediction of outcomes for individual patients is an integral part of the evidence-based risk/benefit calculations that are necessary for tailoring the aggressiveness of therapeutic interventions. While several prognostication tools have been developed and validated for risk stratification, each of these systems has limitations. The recent progress in genomic sequencing techniques has led to discoveries of recurrent molecular mutations in MDS patients with independent impact on relevant clinical outcomes. Reliable assays of these mutations have already entered the clinic and efforts are currently ongoing to formally incorporate mutational analysis into the existing clinicopathologic risk stratification tools. Additionally, mutational analysis holds promise for going beyond prognostication to therapeutic selection and individualized treatment-specific prediction of outcomes; abilities that would revolutionize MDS patient care. Despite these exciting developments, the best way of incorporating molecular testing for use in prognostication and prediction of outcomes in clinical practice remains undefined and further research is warranted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Practical Risk Stratification Approach for Implementing a Primary Care Chronic Disease Management Program in an Underserved Community.

PubMed

Xu, Junjun; Williams-Livingston, Arletha; Gaglioti, Anne; McAllister, Calvin; Rust, George

2018-01-01

The use of value metrics is often dependent on payer-initiated health care management incentives. There is a need for practices to define and manage their own patient panels regardless of payer to participate effectively in population health management. A key step is to define a panel of primary care patients with high comorbidity profiles. Our sample included all patients seen in an urban academic family medicine clinic over a two-year period. The simplified risk stratification was built using internal electronic health record and billing system data based on ICD-9 codes. There were 347 patients classified as high-risk out of the 5,364 patient panel. Average age was 59 years (SD 15). Hypertension (90%), hyperlipidemia (62%), and depression (55%) were the most common conditions among high-risk patients. Simplified risk stratification provides a feasible option for our team to understand and respond to the nuances of population health in our underserved community.

Advanced colorectal neoplasia risk stratification by penalized logistic regression.

PubMed

Lin, Yunzhi; Yu, Menggang; Wang, Sijian; Chappell, Richard; Imperiale, Thomas F

2016-08-01

Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of death from cancer in the United States. To facilitate the efficiency of colorectal cancer screening, there is a need to stratify risk for colorectal cancer among the 90% of US residents who are considered "average risk." In this article, we investigate such risk stratification rules for advanced colorectal neoplasia (colorectal cancer and advanced, precancerous polyps). We use a recently completed large cohort study of subjects who underwent a first screening colonoscopy. Logistic regression models have been used in the literature to estimate the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia based on quantifiable risk factors. However, logistic regression may be prone to overfitting and instability in variable selection. Since most of the risk factors in our study have several categories, it was tempting to collapse these categories into fewer risk groups. We propose a penalized logistic regression method that automatically and simultaneously selects variables, groups categories, and estimates their coefficients by penalizing the [Formula: see text]-norm of both the coefficients and their differences. Hence, it encourages sparsity in the categories, i.e. grouping of the categories, and sparsity in the variables, i.e. variable selection. We apply the penalized logistic regression method to our data. The important variables are selected, with close categories simultaneously grouped, by penalized regression models with and without the interactions terms. The models are validated with 10-fold cross-validation. The receiver operating characteristic curves of the penalized regression models dominate the receiver operating characteristic curve of naive logistic regressions, indicating a superior discriminative performance. © The Author(s) 2013.

Role of diastolic function indices in the risk stratification of patients with mixed aortic valve disease.

PubMed

Egbe, Alexander C; Khan, Arooj R; Boler, Amber; Said, Sameh M; Geske, Jeffrey B; Miranda, William R; Akintoye, Emmanuel; Connolly, Heidi M; Warnes, Carole A; Oh, Jae K

2018-06-01

Determine the role of diastolic function indices in pre-operative and post-operative risk stratification in patients with moderate mixed aortic valve disease (MAVD). A retrospective study was conducted of asymptomatic patients with moderate MAVD (a combination of moderate aortic stenosis and moderate aortic regurgitation) and an ejection fraction of 50% or more who were followed up at Mayo Clinic from 1 January 2004, to 31 December 2013. A pre-requisite for inclusion in the study was assessment of diastolic function involving at least three of the following indices: tissue Doppler early diastolic velocity (e'), mitral inflow early velocity (E), tricuspid regurgitation velocity, and left atrial volume index. Primary endpoints were aortic valve replacement (AVR) or cardiac death while secondary endpoints were cardiovascular adverse events (CAEs) after AVR. We defined CAEs as stroke, heart failure hospitalization, severe left ventricular dysfunction, and cardiac death. There were 214 patients (age 61 ± 8 years, men 146 [68%]) followed for 6.1 ± 2.3 years during which 162 (76%) AVRs and 11 (5%) cardiac deaths occurred. The multivariable risk factors for cardiac death or AVR were relative wall thickness (RWT) > 0.42 [hazard ratio (HR), 1.88 [95% CI, 1.28-2.59]; P = 0.001] and average E/e' >14 (HR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.29-3.01]; P = 0.02). Freedom from CAE after AVR was significantly lower in the patients with baseline RWT >0.42 or mean E/e' >14 than the other patients: 79% (95% CI 74-83%) vs. 94% (95% CI 89-98%) at 3 years (P = 0.03). The presence of RWT >0.42 or E/e' >14 identifies a high-risk patient subset whose risk for cardiovascular morbidities persists even after AVR.

Risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response score to guide decision-making in patients with suspected appendicitis.

PubMed

Scott, A J; Mason, S E; Arunakirinathan, M; Reissis, Y; Kinross, J M; Smith, J J

2015-04-01

Current management of suspected appendicitis is hampered by the overadmission of patients with non-specific abdominal pain and a significant negative exploration rate. The potential benefits of risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score to guide clinical decision-making were assessed. During this 50-week prospective observational study at one institution, the AIR score was calculated for all patients admitted with suspected appendicitis. Appendicitis was diagnosed by histological examination, and patients were classified as having non-appendicitis pain if histological findings were negative or surgery was not performed. The diagnostic performance of the AIR score and the potential for risk stratification to reduce admissions, optimize imaging and prevent unnecessary explorations were quantified. A total of 464 patients were included, of whom 210 (63·3 per cent) with non-appendicitis pain were correctly classified as low risk. However, 13 low-risk patients had appendicitis. Low-risk patients accounted for 48·1 per cent of admissions (223 of 464), 57 per cent of negative explorations (48 of 84) and 50·7 per cent of imaging requests (149 of 294). An AIR score of 5 or more (intermediate and high risk) had high sensitivity for all severities of appendicitis (90 per cent) and also for advanced appendicitis (98 per cent). An AIR score of 9 or more (high risk) was very specific (97 per cent) for appendicitis, and the majority of patients with appendicitis in the high-risk group (21 of 30, 70 per cent) had perforation or gangrene. Ultrasound imaging could not exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative likelihood ratio (LR) 1·0) but could rule-in the diagnosis in intermediate-risk patients (positive LR 10·2). CT could exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative LR 0·0) and rule-in appendicitis in the intermediate group (positive LR 10·9). Risk stratification of patients with suspected appendicitis by the AIR score could

Risk Stratification in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Calkins, Hugh; Corrado, Domenico; Marcus, Frank

2017-11-21

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is an inherited cardiomyopathy characterized by ventricular arrhythmias and an increased risk of sudden cardiac death. Although structural abnormalities of the right ventricle predominate, it is well recognized that left ventricular involvement is common, particularly in advanced disease, and that left-dominant forms occur. The pathological characteristic of ARVC is myocyte loss with fibrofatty replacement. Since the first detailed clinical description of the disorder in 1982, significant advances have been made in understanding this disease. Once the diagnosis of ARVC is established, the single most important clinical decision is whether a particular patient's sudden cardiac death risk is sufficient to justify placement of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. The importance of this decision reflects the fact that ARVC is a common cause of sudden death in young people and that sudden death may be the first manifestation of the disease. This decision is particularly important because these are often young patients who are expected to live for many years. Although an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator can save lives in individuals with this disease, it is also well recognized that implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy is associated with both short- and long-term complications. Decisions about the placement of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator are based on an estimate of a patient's risk of sudden cardiac death, as well as their preferences and values. The primary purpose of this article is to provide a review of the literature that concerns risk stratification in patients with ARVC and to place this literature in the framework of the 3 authors' considerable lifetime experiences in caring for patients with ARVC. The most important parameters to consider when determining arrhythmic risk include electric instability, including the frequency of premature ventricular contractions and

Noninvasive Computed Tomography-based Risk Stratification of Lung Adenocarcinomas in the National Lung Screening Trial.

PubMed

Maldonado, Fabien; Duan, Fenghai; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A; Garg, Kavita; Greco, Erin; Nath, Hrudaya; Robb, Richard A; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

2015-09-15

Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification. To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes. We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival. A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases. CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas.

Neuroblastoma: clinical and biological approach to risk stratification and treatment.

PubMed

Tolbert, Vanessa P; Matthay, Katherine K

2018-05-01

Neuroblastoma is the most common extra-cranial solid tumor of childhood and the most common in the first year of life. It is a unique malignancy in that infants often present with either localized or metastatic disease that can spontaneously regress without intervention while older children can succumb to the disease after months to years of arduous therapy. Given this wide range of outcomes, the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group was created to stratify patients based on presenting characteristics and tumor biology in order to guide intensity of treatment strategies. The goal has been to decrease therapy for low-risk patients to avoid long-term complications while augmenting and targeting therapies for high-risk patients to improve overall survival. The international risk stratification depends on age, stage, histology, MYCN gene amplification status, tumor cell ploidy and segmental chromosomal abnormalities. Treatment for asymptomatic low-risk patients with an estimated survival of > 98% is often observation or surgical resection alone, whereas intermediate-risk patients with an estimated survival of > 90% require moderate doses of response-adjusted chemotherapy along with resection. High-risk patients undergo multiple cycles of combination chemotherapy before surgery, followed by consolidation with myeloablative autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and local radiation and finally immunotherapy with differentiation therapy as maintenance phase. With this approach, outcome for patients with neuroblastoma has improved, as the field continues to expand efforts in more targeted therapies for high-risk patients.

Speckle-Tracking Echocardiography Improves Pre-operative Risk Stratification Before the Total Cavopulmonary Connection.

PubMed

Park, Patsy W; Atz, Andrew M; Taylor, Carolyn L; Chowdhury, Shahryar M

2017-05-01

Single-ventricle patients with elevated pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) or end-diastolic pressure (EDP) are excluded from undergoing total cavopulmonary connection (TCPC). However, a subset of patients deemed to be at acceptable risk experience prolonged length of stay (LOS) after TCPC. Routine assessment of ventricular function has been inadequate in identifying these high-risk patients. Speckle-tracking echocardiography (STE) is a novel method for assessment of myocardial deformation that may be useful in single-ventricle patients. The aim of this study was to perform a contemporary preoperative risk assessment for prolonged LOS to determine whether STE improves risk stratification before TCPC. Our single institution's perioperative data were retrospectively collected. The primary outcome was postoperative LOS >14 days. Longitudinal and circumferential STE deformation measures were analyzed on echocardiograms obtained during preoperative catheterization. Patient-specific, echocardiographic, and catheterization data were included in multivariable logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic area under the curves (AUC) were analyzed. From 2007 to 2014, 135 patients who underwent TCPC were included in the analysis. The median LOS was 11 (IQR 9-14) days. The PVR (P < .01) and circumferential strain rate (CSR) (P < .01) were the only variables independently associated with LOS >14 days. For every 0.1 s -1 CSR increased, there was a 20% increased odds of prolonged LOS. The AUC for CSR was 0.70. The AUC for PVR and EDP combined was 0.68. The AUC for PVR, EDP, and CSR combined was 0.73. Preoperative CSR is independently associated with LOS >14 days and improves preoperative risk stratification in patients undergoing TCPC. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Echocardiography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lagged segmented Poincaré plot analysis for risk stratification in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Voss, Andreas; Fischer, Claudia; Schroeder, Rico; Figulla, Hans R; Goernig, Matthias

2012-07-01

The objectives of this study were to introduce a new type of heart-rate variability analysis improving risk stratification in patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and to provide additional information about impaired heart beat generation in these patients. Beat-to-beat intervals (BBI) of 30-min ECGs recorded from 91 DCM patients and 21 healthy subjects were analyzed applying the lagged segmented Poincaré plot analysis (LSPPA) method. LSPPA includes the Poincaré plot reconstruction with lags of 1-100, rotating the cloud of points, its normalized segmentation adapted to their standard deviations, and finally, a frequency-dependent clustering. The lags were combined into eight different clusters representing specific frequency bands within 0.012-1.153 Hz. Statistical differences between low- and high-risk DCM could be found within the clusters II-VIII (e.g., cluster IV: 0.033-0.038 Hz; p = 0.0002; sensitivity = 85.7 %; specificity = 71.4 %). The multivariate statistics led to a sensitivity of 92.9 %, specificity of 85.7 % and an area under the curve of 92.1 % discriminating these patient groups. We introduced the LSPPA method to investigate time correlations in BBI time series. We found that LSPPA contributes considerably to risk stratification in DCM and yields the highest discriminant power in the low and very low-frequency bands.

[Syncope and work: role of the occupational physician and global risk stratification].

PubMed

Barbic, F; Angaroni, L; Orlandi, M; Costantino, G; Dipaola, E; Borleri, D; Borchini, R; D'Adda, F; Perego, F; Borella, M; Galli, A; Solbiati, M; Scanella, E; Casazza, G; Seghizzi, P; Furlan, R

2011-01-01

Safety risk for subjects suffering from syncope while working has not been as yet addressed by occupational medicine. The present study was aimed at evaluating a new developed methodology for job tasks risk stratification in patients with syncope. During a work-shop on syncope and occupational risk, 149 occupational physicians (OP) with about 10 years of clinical experience were asked to fulfil a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) concerning the doctor's estimated potential damage (D) to the worker and the probability of a damage to occur (P) should syncope take place during the job task. Five job tasks characterized by different risk for safety (1, driving; 2, toxic products handling; 3, job performed closed to hot surfaces o free flames; 4, surgical activity; 5, office job) were identified. OP correctly stratified the risk associated to the different job tasks in patients with syncope. Unexpectedly, task #3 was given a risk similar to that obtained in drivers. This might be of paramount clinical and social importance when patients with syncope have to return to their job tasks.

A new risk stratification algorithm for the management of patients with adrenal incidentalomas.

PubMed

Birsen, Onur; Akyuz, Muhammet; Dural, Cem; Aksoy, Erol; Aliyev, Shamil; Mitchell, Jamie; Siperstein, Allan; Berber, Eren

2014-10-01

Although adrenal incidentalomas (AI) are detected in ≤5% of patients undergoing chest and abdominal computed tomography (CT), their management is challenging. The current guidelines include recommendations from the National Institutes of Health, the American Association of Endocrine Surgeons (AAES), and the American Association for Cancer Education (AACE). The aim of this study was to develop a new risk stratification model and compare its performance against the existing guidelines for managing AI. A risk stratification model was designed by assigning points for adrenal size (1, 2, or 3 points for tumors <4, 4-6, or >6 cm, respectively) and Hounsfield unit (HU) density on noncontrast CT (1, 2, or 3 points for HU <10, 10-20, or >20, respectively). This model was applied retrospectively to 157 patients with AI managed in an endocrine surgery clinic to assign a score to each tumor. The utility of this model versus the AAES/AACE guidelines was assessed. Of the 157 patients, 54 (34%), had tumors <4 cm with HU <10 (a score of 2). One third of these were hormonally active on biochemical workup and underwent adrenalectomy. The remaining two thirds were nonsecretory lesions and have been followed conservatively with annual testing. In 103 patients (66%), the adrenal mass was >4 cm and/or had indeterminate features on noncontrast CT (HU >10, irregular borders, heterogeneity), and adrenalectomy was performed after hormonal evaluation was completed (10 were hormonally active on biochemical testing). Seven of these patients (7%) had adrenocortical cancer on final pathology with tumor size <4 cm in 0, 4-6 cm in 1, and >6 cm in 5 patients. Of the hormonally inactive patients, 32% had a score of 3, 38% 4, and 30% 5 or 6. The incidence of adrenocortical cancer in these subgroups was 0, 0, and 25%, respectively. This study shows that an algorithm that utilizes the hormonal activity at the first decision step followed by a consolidated risk stratification, based on tumor

Development of a Bayesian Classifier for Breast Cancer Risk Stratification: A Feasibility Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-29

IV 0 2 10 23 BIRADS V 0 1 2 1 No mammogram 116 94 55 45 Breast biopsy category .4076 Benign, no atypia 19 12 27 34 Premalignant 1 0 2 4 Infiltrating... breast EIS result∗ Estimated outcome, % Known evidence Biopsy category EIS Gail Benign, no Infiltrating cancer Case frequency, % result cutoff‘ atypia or...Development of a Bayesian Classifier for Breast Cancer Risk Stratification: A Feasibility Study Alexander Stojadinovic, MD,a,b Christina Eberhardt,a

Noninvasive Computed Tomography–based Risk Stratification of Lung Adenocarcinomas in the National Lung Screening Trial

PubMed Central

Maldonado, Fabien; Duan, Fenghai; Raghunath, Sushravya M.; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A.; Garg, Kavita; Greco, Erin; Nath, Hrudaya; Robb, Richard A.; Bartholmai, Brian J.

2015-01-01

Rationale: Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification. Objectives: To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes. Methods: We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases. Conclusions: CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas. PMID:26052977

Impact of self-reported fasting duration on lipid profile variability, cardiovascular risk stratification and metabolic syndrome diagnosis.

PubMed

Janovsky, Carolina Castro Porto Silva; Laurinavicius, Antonio; Cesena, Fernando; Valente, Viviane; Ferreira, Carlos Eduardo; Mangueira, Cristovão; Conceição, Raquel; Santos, Raul D; Bittencourt, Marcio Sommer

2018-01-01

We sought to investigate the impact of self-reported fasting duration times on the lipid profile results and its impact on the cardiovascular risk stratification and metabolic syndrome diagnosis. We analyzed data from all consecutive individuals evaluated in a comprehensive health examination at the Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein from January to December 2015. We divided these patients in three groups, according to the fasting duration recalled (< 8h, 8-12h and > 12h). We calculated the global cardiovascular risk and diagnosed metabolic syndrome according to the current criteria and estimated their change according to fasting duration. A total of 12,196 (42.3 ± 9.2 years-old, 30.2% females) patients were evaluated. The distribution of cardiovascular risk was not different among groups defined by fasting duration in both men and women (p = 0.547 for women and p = 0.329 for men). Similarly, the prevalence of metabolic syndrome was not influenced by the fasting duration (p = 0.431 for women and p = 0.166 for men). Self-reported fasting duration had no significant impact on the lipid profile results, including triglyceride levels. Consequently, no changes on the cardiovascular risk stratification using the Framingham risk score nor changes on the prevalence of metabolic syndrome were noted.

Novel Molecular Imaging Approaches to Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Risk Stratification

PubMed Central

Toczek, Jakub; Meadows, Judith L.; Sadeghi, Mehran M.

2015-01-01

Selection of patients for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair is currently based on aneurysm size, growth rate and symptoms. Molecular imaging of biological processes associated with aneurysm growth and rupture, e.g., inflammation and matrix remodeling, could improve patient risk stratification and lead to a reduction in AAA morbidity and mortality. 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) and ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide (USPIO) magnetic resonance imaging are two novel approaches to AAA imaging evaluated in clinical trials. A variety of other tracers, including those that target inflammatory cells and proteolytic enzymes (e.g., integrin αvβ3 and matrix metalloproteinases), have proven effective in preclinical models of AAA and show great potential for clinical translation. PMID:26763279

Customized oligonucleotide microarray gene expression-based classification of neuroblastoma patients outperforms current clinical risk stratification.

PubMed

Oberthuer, André; Berthold, Frank; Warnat, Patrick; Hero, Barbara; Kahlert, Yvonne; Spitz, Rüdiger; Ernestus, Karen; König, Rainer; Haas, Stefan; Eils, Roland; Schwab, Manfred; Brors, Benedikt; Westermann, Frank; Fischer, Matthias

2006-11-01

To develop a gene expression-based classifier for neuroblastoma patients that reliably predicts courses of the disease. Two hundred fifty-one neuroblastoma specimens were analyzed using a customized oligonucleotide microarray comprising 10,163 probes for transcripts with differential expression in clinical subgroups of the disease. Subsequently, the prediction analysis for microarrays (PAM) was applied to a first set of patients with maximally divergent clinical courses (n = 77). The classification accuracy was estimated by a complete 10-times-repeated 10-fold cross validation, and a 144-gene predictor was constructed from this set. This classifier's predictive power was evaluated in an independent second set (n = 174) by comparing results of the gene expression-based classification with those of risk stratification systems of current trials from Germany, Japan, and the United States. The first set of patients was accurately predicted by PAM (cross-validated accuracy, 99%). Within the second set, the PAM classifier significantly separated cohorts with distinct courses (3-year event-free survival [EFS] 0.86 +/- 0.03 [favorable; n = 115] v 0.52 +/- 0.07 [unfavorable; n = 59] and 3-year overall survival 0.99 +/- 0.01 v 0.84 +/- 0.05; both P < .0001) and separated risk groups of current neuroblastoma trials into subgroups with divergent outcome (NB2004: low-risk 3-year EFS 0.86 +/- 0.04 v 0.25 +/- 0.15, P < .0001; intermediate-risk 1.00 v 0.57 +/- 0.19, P = .018; high-risk 0.81 +/- 0.10 v 0.56 +/- 0.08, P = .06). In a multivariate Cox regression model, the PAM predictor classified patients of the second set more accurately than risk stratification of current trials from Germany, Japan, and the United States (P < .001; hazard ratio, 4.756 [95% CI, 2.544 to 8.893]). Integration of gene expression-based class prediction of neuroblastoma patients may improve risk estimation of current neuroblastoma trials.

Risk stratification for implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy: the role of the wearable cardioverter-defibrillator.

PubMed

Klein, Helmut U; Goldenberg, Ilan; Moss, Arthur J

2013-08-01

The benefit of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy depends upon appropriate evaluation of a persisting risk of sudden death and estimation of the patient's overall survival. Assessment of a stable and unchangeable arrhythmogenic substrate is often difficult. Structural abnormality and ventricular dysfunction, the two major risk parameters, may recover, and heart failure symptoms can improve so that ICD therapy may not be indicated. Risk stratification can take time while the patient continues to be at high risk of arrhythmic death, and patients may need temporary bridging by a defibrillator in cases of interrupted ICD therapy. The wearable cardioverter-defibrillator (WCD) combines a long-term electrocardiogram (ECG)-monitoring system with an external automatic defibrillator. The LIfeVest® (ZOLL, Pittsburgh, PA, USA) is composed of a garment, containing two defibrillation patch electrodes on the back, and an elastic belt with a front-defibrillation patch electrode and four non-adhesive ECG electrodes, connected to a monitoring and defibrillation unit. The WCD is a safe and effective tool to terminate ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation events, unless a conscious patient withholds shock delivery. It may be used in patients in the early phase after acute myocardial infarction with poor left ventricular function, after acute coronary revascularization procedures (percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting) and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (≤35%), in patients with acute heart failure in non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy of uncertain aetiology and prognosis. The WCD may be helpful in subjects with syncope of assumed tachyarrhythmia origin or in patients with inherited arrhythmia syndromes. The WCD may replace ICD implantation in patients waiting for heart transplantation or who need a ventricular-assist device. This review describes the technical details and characteristics of the WCD, discusses its

Computational cardiology and risk stratification for sudden cardiac death: one of the grand challenges for cardiology in the 21st century

PubMed Central

Perry, Matthew D.; Abi‐Gerges, Najah; Couderc, Jean‐Philippe; Fermini, Bernard; Hancox, Jules C.; Knollmann, Bjorn C.; Mirams, Gary R.; Skinner, Jon; Zareba, Wojciech; Vandenberg, Jamie I.

2016-01-01

Abstract Risk stratification in the context of sudden cardiac death has been acknowledged as one of the major challenges facing cardiology for the past four decades. In recent years, the advent of high performance computing has facilitated organ‐level simulation of the heart, meaning we can now examine the causes, mechanisms and impact of cardiac dysfunction in silico. As a result, computational cardiology, largely driven by the Physiome project, now stands at the threshold of clinical utility in regards to risk stratification and treatment of patients at risk of sudden cardiac death. In this white paper, we outline a roadmap of what needs to be done to make this translational step, using the relatively well‐developed case of acquired or drug‐induced long QT syndrome as an exemplar case. PMID:27060987

Electrophysiologic profile and results of invasive risk stratification in asymptomatic children and adolescents with the Wolff-Parkinson-White electrocardiographic pattern.

PubMed

Kubuš, Peter; Vít, Pavel; Gebauer, Roman A; Materna, Ondřej; Janoušek, Jan

2014-04-01

Data on the results and clinical effect of an invasive risk stratification strategy in asymptomatic young patients with the Wolff-Parkinson-White electrocardiographic pattern are scarce. Eighty-five consecutive patients aged<18 years with a Wolff-Parkinson-White pattern and persistent preexcitation at maximum exercise undergoing invasive risk stratification were retrospectively studied. Adverse accessory pathway (AP) properties were defined according to currently consented criteria as any of the following: shortest preexcited RR interval during atrial fibrillation/rapid atrial pacing≤250 ms (or antegrade effective refractory period≤250 ms if shortest preexcited RR interval was not available) or inducible atrioventricular re-entrant tachycardia. Age at evaluation was median 14.9 years. Eighty-two patients had a structurally normal heart and 3 had hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. A single manifest AP was present in 80, 1 manifest and 1 concealed AP in 4, and 2 manifest APs in 1 patient. Adverse AP properties were present in 32 of 85 patients (37.6%) at baseline and in additional 16 of 44 (36.4%) after isoproterenol. Ablation was performed in 41 of these 48 patients. Ablation was deferred in the remaining 7 for pathway proximity to the atrioventricular node. In addition, 18 of the low-risk patients were ablated based on patient/parental decision. Adverse AP properties at baseline were exhibited by 37.6% of the evaluated patients with an asymptomatic Wolff-Parkinson-White preexcitation persisting at peak exercise. Isoproterenol challenge yielded additional 36.4% of those tested at higher risk. Ablation was performed in a total of 69.4% of patients subjected to invasive risk stratification.

Personalized treatment of women with early breast cancer: a risk-group specific cost-effectiveness analysis of adjuvant chemotherapy accounting for companion prognostic tests OncotypeDX and Adjuvant!Online.

PubMed

Jahn, Beate; Rochau, Ursula; Kurzthaler, Christina; Hubalek, Michael; Miksad, Rebecca; Sroczynski, Gaby; Paulden, Mike; Bundo, Marvin; Stenehjem, David; Brixner, Diana; Krahn, Murray; Siebert, Uwe

2017-10-16

Due to high survival rates and the relatively small benefit of adjuvant therapy, the application of personalized medicine (PM) through risk stratification is particularly beneficial in early breast cancer (BC) to avoid unnecessary harms from treatment. The new 21-gene assay (OncotypeDX, ODX) is a promising prognostic score for risk stratification that can be applied in conjunction with Adjuvant!Online (AO) to guide personalized chemotherapy decisions for early BC patients. Our goal was to evaluate risk-group specific cost effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for women with early stage BC in Austria based on AO and ODX risk stratification. A previously validated discrete event simulation model was applied to a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old women over a lifetime horizon. We simulated twelve risk groups derived from the joint application of ODX and AO and included respective additional costs. The primary outcomes of interest were life-years gained, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER). The robustness of results and decisions derived were tested in sensitivity analyses. A cross-country comparison of results was performed. Chemotherapy is dominated (i.e., less effective and more costly) for patients with 1) low ODX risk independent of AO classification; and 2) low AO risk and intermediate ODX risk. For patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high ODX risk, the ICER is below 15,000 EUR/QALY (potentially cost effective depending on the willingness-to-pay). Applying the AO risk classification alone would miss risk groups where chemotherapy is dominated and thus should not be considered. These results are sensitive to changes in the probabilities of distant recurrence but not to changes in the costs of chemotherapy or the ODX test. Based on our modeling study, chemotherapy is effective and cost effective for Austrian patients with an intermediate or high AO risk and an intermediate or high

Risk stratification using SpO2/FiO2 and PEEP at initial ARDS diagnosis and after 24 h in patients with moderate or severe ARDS.

PubMed

Pisani, Luigi; Roozeman, Jan-Paul; Simonis, Fabienne D; Giangregorio, Antonio; van der Hoeven, Sophia M; Schouten, Laura R; Horn, Janneke; Neto, Ary Serpa; Festic, Emir; Dondorp, Arjen M; Grasso, Salvatore; Bos, Lieuwe D; Schultz, Marcus J

2017-10-25

We assessed the potential of risk stratification of ARDS patients using SpO 2 /FiO 2 and positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) at ARDS onset and after 24 h. We used data from a prospective observational study in patients admitted to a mixed medical-surgical intensive care unit of a university hospital in the Netherlands. Risk stratification was by cutoffs for SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PEEP. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Patients with moderate or severe ARDS with a length of stay of > 24 h were included in this study. Patients were assigned to four predefined risk groups: group I (SpO 2 /FiO 2  ≥ 190 and PEEP < 10 cm H 2 O), group II (SpO 2 /FiO 2  ≥ 190 and PEEP ≥ 10 cm), group III (SpO 2 /FiO 2  < 190 and PEEP < 10 cm H 2 O) and group IV (SpO 2 /FiO 2  < 190 and PEEP ≥ 10 cm H 2 O). The analysis included 456 patients. SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PaO 2 /FiO 2 had a strong relationship (P < 0.001, R 2  = 0.676) that could be described in a linear regression equation (SpO 2 /FiO 2  = 42.6 + 1.0 * PaO 2 /FiO 2 ). Risk stratification at initial ARDS diagnosis resulted in groups that had no differences in in-hospital mortality. Risk stratification at 24 h resulted in groups with increasing mortality rates. The association between group assignment at 24 h and outcome was confounded by several factors, including APACHE IV scores, arterial pH and plasma lactate levels, and vasopressor therapy. In this cohort of patients with moderate or severe ARDS, SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PaO 2 /FiO 2 have a strong linear relationship. In contrast to risk stratification at initial ARDS diagnosis, risk stratification using SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PEEP after 24 h resulted in groups with worsening outcomes. Risk stratification using SpO 2 /FiO 2 and PEEP could be practical, especially in resource-limited settings.

Electrocardiologic and related methods of non-invasive detection and risk stratification in myocardial ischemia: state of the art and perspectives

PubMed Central

Huebner, Thomas; Goernig, Matthias; Schuepbach, Michael; Sanz, Ernst; Pilgram, Roland; Seeck, Andrea; Voss, Andreas

2010-01-01

Background: Electrocardiographic methods still provide the bulk of cardiovascular diagnostics. Cardiac ischemia is associated with typical alterations in cardiac biosignals that have to be measured, analyzed by mathematical algorithms and allegorized for further clinical diagnostics. The fast growing fields of biomedical engineering and applied sciences are intensely focused on generating new approaches to cardiac biosignal analysis for diagnosis and risk stratification in myocardial ischemia. Objectives: To present and review the state of the art in and new approaches to electrocardiologic methods for non-invasive detection and risk stratification in coronary artery disease (CAD) and myocardial ischemia; secondarily, to explore the future perspectives of these methods. Methods: In follow-up to the Expert Discussion at the 2008 Workshop on "Biosignal Analysis" of the German Society of Biomedical Engineering in Potsdam, Germany, we comprehensively searched the pertinent literature and databases and compiled the results into this review. Then, we categorized the state-of-the-art methods and selected new approaches based on their applications in detection and risk stratification of myocardial ischemia. Finally, we compared the pros and cons of the methods and explored their future potentials for cardiology. Results: Resting ECG, particularly suited for detecting ST-elevation myocardial infarctions, and exercise ECG, for the diagnosis of stable CAD, are state-of-the-art methods. New exercise-free methods for detecting stable CAD include cardiogoniometry (CGM); methods for detecting acute coronary syndrome without ST elevation are Body Surface Potential Mapping, functional imaging and CGM. Heart rate variability and blood pressure variability analyses, microvolt T-wave alternans and signal-averaged ECG mainly serve in detecting and stratifying the risk for lethal arrythmias in patients with myocardial ischemia or previous myocardial infarctions. Telemedicine and ambient

Major bleeding events and risk stratification of antithrombotic agents in hemodialysis: Results from the DOPPS

PubMed Central

Sood, Manish M.; Larkina, Maria; Thumma, Jyothi R.; Tentori, Francesca; Gillespie, Brenda W.; Fukuhara, Shunichi; Mendelssohn, David C.; Chan, Kevin; de Sequera, Patricia; Komenda, Paul; Rigatto, Claudio; Robinson, Bruce M.

2013-01-01

Benefits and risks of antithrombotic agents remain unclear in the hemodialysis population. We aimed to determine variation in antithrombotic agent use, rates of major bleeding events, and to determine factors predictive of stroke and bleeding to allow for risk stratification, enabling more rational decisions about using antithrombotic agents. The sample included 48,144 patients in 12 countries in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study Phase I–IV. Antithrombotic agents included oral anticoagulants (OAC), ASA and anti-platelet agents (APA). OAC prescription, comorbidities and vascular access were assessed at study entry; data on clinical events including hospitalization due to bleeding were collected every four months during follow-up. There was wide variation in OAC (0.3–18%), APA (3–25%) and ASA use (8–36%), and major bleeding rates (0.05–0.22 events/year) among countries. Rates of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and bleeding events requiring hospitalization were elevated in patients prescribed OAC across adjusted models. The CHADS2 score predicted the risk of stroke in atrial fibrillation patients. Gastrointestinal bleeding in the past 12 months was highly predictive of major bleeding events; for patients with previous gastrointestinal bleeding, the rate of bleeding exceeded the rate of stroke by at least 2-fold across categories of CHADS2 score. Prescription of antithrombotic agents varied greatly. The CHADS2 score and a history of gastrointestinal bleeding were predictive of stroke and bleeding events, respectively, with bleeding rates substantially exceeding stroke rates in all groups including patients at high stroke risk. Appropriate risk stratification and a cautious approach should be considered before OAC use in the dialysis population. PMID:23677245

Blood pressure load does not add to ambulatory blood pressure level for cardiovascular risk stratification.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Thijs, Lutgarde; Boggia, José; Asayama, Kei; Hansen, Tine W; Kikuya, Masahiro; Björklund-Bodegård, Kristina; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Dolan, Eamon; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Tikhonoff, Valérie; Malyutina, Sofia; Casiglia, Edoardo; Nikitin, Yuri; Lind, Lars; Sandoya, Edgardo; Kawecka-Jaszcz, Kalina; Filipovsky, Jan; Imai, Yutaka; Ibsen, Hans; O'Brien, Eoin; Wang, Jiguang; Staessen, Jan A

2014-05-01

Experts proposed blood pressure (BP) load derived from 24-hour ambulatory BP recordings as a more accurate predictor of outcome than level, in particular in normotensive people. We analyzed 8711 subjects (mean age, 54.8 years; 47.0% women) randomly recruited from 10 populations. We expressed BP load as percentage (%) of systolic/diastolic readings ≥135/≥85 mm Hg and ≥120/≥70 mm Hg during day and night, respectively, or as the area under the BP curve (mm Hg×h) using the same ceiling values. During a period of 10.7 years (median), 1284 participants died and 1109 experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular end point. In multivariable-adjusted models, the risk of cardiovascular complications gradually increased across deciles of BP level and load (P<0.001), but BP load did not substantially refine risk prediction based on 24-hour systolic or diastolic BP level (generalized R(2) statistic ≤0.294%; net reclassification improvement ≤0.28%; integrated discrimination improvement ≤0.001%). Systolic/diastolic BP load of 40.0/42.3% or 91.8/73.6 mm Hg×h conferred a 10-year risk of a composite cardiovascular end point similar to a 24-hour systolic/diastolic BP of 130/80 mm Hg. In analyses dichotomized according to these thresholds, increased BP load did not refine risk prediction in the whole study population (R(2)≤0.051) or in untreated participants with 24-hour ambulatory normotension (R(2)≤0.034). In conclusion, BP load does not improve risk stratification based on 24-hour BP level. This also applies to subjects with normal 24-hour BP for whom BP load was proposed to be particularly useful in risk stratification.

Delayed risk stratification, to include the response to initial treatment (surgery and radioiodine ablation), has better outcome predictivity in differentiated thyroid cancer patients.

PubMed

Castagna, Maria Grazia; Maino, Fabio; Cipri, Claudia; Belardini, Valentina; Theodoropoulou, Alexandra; Cevenini, Gabriele; Pacini, Furio

2011-09-01

After initial treatment, differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients are stratified as low and high risk based on clinical/pathological features. Recently, a risk stratification based on additional clinical data accumulated during follow-up has been proposed. To evaluate the predictive value of delayed risk stratification (DRS) obtained at the time of the first diagnostic control (8-12 months after initial treatment). We reviewed 512 patients with DTC whose risk assessment was initially defined according to the American (ATA) and European Thyroid Association (ETA) guidelines. At the time of the first control, 8-12 months after initial treatment, patients were re-stratified according to their clinical status: DRS. Using DRS, about 50% of ATA/ETA intermediate/high-risk patients moved to DRS low-risk category, while about 10% of ATA/ETA low-risk patients moved to DRS high-risk category. The ability of the DRS to predict the final outcome was superior to that of ATA and ETA. Positive and negative predictive values for both ATA (39.2 and 90.6% respectively) and ETA (38.4 and 91.3% respectively) were significantly lower than that observed with the DRS (72.8 and 96.3% respectively, P<0.05). The observed variance in predicting final outcome was 25.4% for ATA, 19.1% for ETA, and 62.1% for DRS. Delaying the risk stratification of DTC patients at a time when the response to surgery and radioiodine ablation is evident allows to better define individual risk and to better modulate the subsequent follow-up.

Risk stratification personalised model for prediction of life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias in patients with chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Frolov, Alexander Vladimirovich; Vaikhanskaya, Tatjana Gennadjevna; Melnikova, Olga Petrovna; Vorobiev, Anatoly Pavlovich; Guel, Ludmila Michajlovna

2017-01-01

The development of prognostic factors of life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias (VTA) and sudden cardiac death (SCD) continues to maintain its priority and relevance in cardiology. The development of a method of personalised prognosis based on multifactorial analysis of the risk factors associated with life-threatening heart rhythm disturbances is considered a key research and clinical task. To design a prognostic and mathematical model to define personalised risk for life-threatening VTA in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). The study included 240 patients with CHF (mean-age of 50.5 ± 12.1 years; left ventricular ejection fraction 32.8 ± 10.9%; follow-up period 36.8 ± 5.7 months). The participants received basic therapy for heart failure. The elec-trocardiogram (ECG) markers of myocardial electrical instability were assessed including microvolt T-wave alternans, heart rate turbulence, heart rate deceleration, and QT dispersion. Additionally, echocardiography and Holter monitoring (HM) were performed. The cardiovascular events were considered as primary endpoints, including SCD, paroxysmal ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) based on HM-ECG data, and data obtained from implantable device interrogation (CRT-D, ICD) as well as appropriated shocks. During the follow-up period, 66 (27.5%) subjects with CHF showed adverse arrhythmic events, including nine SCD events and 57 VTAs. Data from a stepwise discriminant analysis of cumulative ECG-markers of myocardial electrical instability were used to make a mathematical model of preliminary VTA risk stratification. Uni- and multivariate Cox logistic regression analysis were performed to define an individualised risk stratification model of SCD/VTA. A binary logistic regression model demonstrated a high prognostic significance of discriminant function with a classification sensitivity of 80.8% and specificity of 99.1% (F = 31.2; c2 = 143.2; p < 0.0001). The method of personalised risk

[Sports medical aspects in cardiac risk stratification--heart rate variability and exercise capacity].

PubMed

Banzer, W; Lucki, K; Bürklein, M; Rosenhagen, A; Vogt, L

2006-12-01

The present study investigates the association of the predicted CHD-risk (PROCAM) with the individual endurance capacity and heart rate variability (HRV) in a population-based sample of sedentary elderly. After stratification, in 57 men (48.1+/-9.5 yrs.) with an overall PROCAM-risk <10% (28.7+/-10.9 points) and 22 men (54.5+/-7.7 yrs.) with a coronary 10-year risk > or =10% (50.8+/-5.6 points) cycle ergometries and short-term HRV analysis of time (RRMEAN, SDNN, RMSSD) and frequency domain parameters (LF, HF, TP, LF/HF) were conducted. Additionally the autonomic stress index (SI) was calculated. Nonparametric tests were used for statistical correlation analysis (Spearman rho) and group comparisons (Mann-Whitney). For endurance capacity [W/kg] (r=-0.469, p<0.001), SDNN (r=-0.302, p<0.05), RMSSD (r= -0.311, p<0.05), LF (r=-0.325, p<0.05), HF (r= -0.311, p<0.05) and TP (r= -0.307, p<0.05) negative monotone correlations with the coronary score-risk were determined. Significant positive correlations were calculated for SI (r=0.476, p<0.001). Except for RRMEAN and LF/HF significant group differences (p<0.05) were computed for SDNN (30.0+/-20.0 vs 20.0+/-10.0 ms), RMSSD (22.2+/-18.3 vs 18.0+/-8.7 ms), LF (90.9+/-241.5 vs 41.35+/-81.1 ms(2)), HF (43.0+/-105.1 vs 18.0+/-27.0 ms(2)) and TP (189.0+/-457.1 vs 100.0+/-157.6 ms(2)). Significant differences (p<0.01) were evaluated for exercise capacity (2.4+/-0.5 vs 1.8+/-0.3 W/kg) and SI (90+/-183 vs 322+/-291). The results underline the predictive value of HRV analysis in risk stratification and outline the interrelation of a decreased exercise capacity and autonomic function with a raised individual 10-year cardiac risk. As an independent parameter of the vegetative regulatory state the stress index may contribute to an increased practical relevance of short-time HRV analysis.

Developing a risk stratification tool for audit of outcome after surgery for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Tighe, David F; Thomas, Alan J; Sassoon, Isabel; Kinsman, Robin; McGurk, Mark

2017-07-01

Patients treated surgically for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) represent a heterogeneous group. Adjusting for patient case mix and complexity of surgery is essential if reporting outcomes represent surgical performance and quality of care. A case note audit totaling 1075 patients receiving 1218 operations done for HNSCC in 4 cancer networks was completed. Logistic regression, decision tree analysis, an artificial neural network, and Naïve Bayes Classifier were used to adjust for patient case-mix using pertinent preoperative variables. Thirty-day complication rates varied widely (34%-51%; P < .015) between units. The predictive models allowed risk stratification. The artificial neural network demonstrated the best predictive performance (area under the curve [AUC] 0.85). Early postoperative complications are a measurable outcome that can be used to benchmark surgical performance and quality of care. Surgical outcome reporting in national clinical audits should be taking account of the patient case mix. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The physical phenotype of frailty for risk stratification of older medical inpatients.

PubMed

Forti, P; Maioli, F; Zagni, E; Lucassenn, T; Montanari, L; Maltoni, B; Luca Pirazzoli, G; Bianchi, G; Zoli, M

2014-12-01

To determine the usefulness of physical phenotype of frailty, cognitive impairment, and serum albumin for risk stratification of elderly medical impatients. Prospective, observational cohort study. A general internal medicine unit of a university hospital in Italy. Inpatients with an average age of 80.8 ± 7.5 yr (N = 470). Frailty was defined using the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures Index, a parsimonious version of the physical phenotype (two of the following markers: weight loss, inability to rise five times from a chair, and exhaustion). Two frailty markers from non-physical dimensions were also evaluated: cognitive impairment (Mini-Cog score < 3) and low serum albumin on ward admission (< 3,5 gr/dl). Logistic regression adjusted for preadmission and admission-related confounders was used to investigate whether the physical phenotype of frailty and the two non-physical markers were associated with ward length of stay and unfavorable discharge (death plus any other ward discharge disposition different from direct return home). Areas Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUCs) and Likelihood Ratios (LRs) were used for evaluation of discriminatory ability and clinical usefulness of significant predictors. The physical phenotype of frailty was associated with both study outcomes (p < 0.010) but the association was mainly mediated by chair standing ability. Non-physical markers were associated only with unfavourable discharge (p < 0.001). All of these predictors, either alone or in combination, had poor discriminatory ability (AUCs < 0.70) and poor clinical usefulness (+LRs near 1) for the study outcomes. The physical phenotype of frailty appears of limited clinical use for risk stratification of older medical inpatients. Combination with markers from non-physical dimensions does not improve its prognostic abilities.

Scores for post-myocardial infarction risk stratification in the community.

PubMed

Singh, Mandeep; Reeder, Guy S; Jacobsen, Steven J; Weston, Susan; Killian, Jill; Roger, Véronique L

2002-10-29

Several scores, most of which were derived from clinical trials, have been proposed for stratifying risk after myocardial infarctions (MIs). Little is known about their generalizability to the community, their respective advantages, and whether the ejection fraction (EF) adds prognostic information to the scores. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Predicting Risk of Death in Cardiac Disease Tool (PREDICT) scores in a geographically defined MI cohort and determine the incremental value of EF for risk stratification. MIs occurring in Olmsted County were validated with the use of standardized criteria and stratified with the ECG into ST-segment elevation (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation (NSTEMI) MI. Logistic regression examined the discriminant accuracy of the TIMI and PREDICT scores to predict death and recurrent MI and assessed the incremental value of the EF. After 6.3+/-4.7 years, survival was similar for the 562 STEMIs and 717 NSTEMIs. The discriminant accuracy of the TIMI score was good in STEMI but only fair in NSTEMI. Across time and end points, irrespective of reperfusion therapy, the discriminant accuracy of the PREDICT score was consistently superior to that of the TIMI scores, largely because PREDICT includes comorbidity; EF provided incremental information over that provided by the scores and comorbidity. In the community, comorbidity and EF convey important prognostic information and should be included in approaches for stratifying risk after MI.

Peri-procedural risk stratification and management of patients with Williams syndrome.

PubMed

Collins Ii, R Thomas; Collins, Margaret G; Schmitz, Michael L; Hamrick, Justin T

2017-03-01

Williams syndrome (WS) is a congenital, multisystem disorder affecting the cardiovascular, connective tissue, and central nervous systems in 1 in 10 000 live births. Cardiovascular involvement is the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with WS, and noninvasive and invasive procedures are common. Sudden cardiovascular collapse in patients with WS is a well-known phenomenon, especially in the peri-procedural period. Detailed guidelines for peri-procedural management of patients with WS are limited. The goal of this review is to provide thoughtful, safe and effective management strategies for the peri-procedural care of patients with WS with careful consideration of hemodynamic impacts of anesthetic strategies. In addition, an expanded risk stratification system for anesthetic administration is provided. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A new evidence-based risk stratification system for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma into low, intermediate, and high risk groups with implications for management.

PubMed

Baum, Christian L; Wright, Adam C; Martinez, Juan-Carlos; Arpey, Christopher J; Brewer, Jerry D; Roenigk, Randall K; Otley, Clark C

2018-01-01

Most primary cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas are cured with surgery. A subset, however, may develop local and nodal metastasis that may eventuate in disease-specific; death. This subset has been variably termed high risk. Herein, we review; an emerging body of data on the risks of these outcomes and propose an evidence-based; risk stratification for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk tumors that takes into; account both tumor and patient characteristics. Finally, we discuss a framework for; management of these tumors on the basis of data, when available, and our; recommendations when data are sparse. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Better Indigenous Risk stratification for Cardiac Health study (BIRCH) protocol: rationale and design of a cross-sectional and prospective cohort study to identify novel cardiovascular risk indicators in Aboriginal Australian and Torres Strait Islander adults.

PubMed

Rémond, Marc G W; Stewart, Simon; Carrington, Melinda J; Marwick, Thomas H; Kingwell, Bronwyn A; Meikle, Peter; O'Brien, Darren; Marshall, Nathaniel S; Maguire, Graeme P

2017-08-23

Of the estimated 10-11 year life expectancy gap between Indigenous (Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people) and non-Indigenous Australians, approximately one quarter is attributable to cardiovascular disease (CVD). Risk prediction of CVD is imperfect, but particularly limited for Indigenous Australians. The BIRCH (Better Indigenous Risk stratification for Cardiac Health) project aims to identify and assess existing and novel markers of early disease and risk in Indigenous Australians to optimise health outcomes in this disadvantaged population. It further aims to determine whether these markers are relevant in non-Indigenous Australians. BIRCH is a cross-sectional and prospective cohort study of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australian adults (≥ 18 years) living in remote, regional and urban locations. Participants will be assessed for CVD risk factors, left ventricular mass and strain via echocardiography, sleep disordered breathing and quality via home-based polysomnography or actigraphy respectively, and plasma lipidomic profiles via mass spectrometry. Outcome data will comprise CVD events and death over a period of five years. Results of BIRCH may increase understanding regarding the factors underlying the increased burden of CVD in Indigenous Australians in this setting. Further, it may identify novel markers of early disease and risk to inform the development of more accurate prediction equations. Better identification of at-risk individuals will promote more effective primary and secondary preventive initiatives to reduce Indigenous Australian health disadvantage.

Adaptation of a Biomarker-Based Sepsis Mortality Risk Stratification Tool for Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

PubMed

Yehya, Nadir; Wong, Hector R

2018-01-01

-based risk stratification tool designed for pediatric sepsis was adapted for use in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome. The newly derived Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Biomarker Risk Model demonstrates good test characteristics internally and requires external validation in a larger cohort. Tools such as Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Biomarker Risk Model have the potential to provide improved risk stratification and prognostic enrichment for future trials in pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Why is cardiovascular risk stratification important in hypertensive patients?

PubMed

Coll-De-Tuero, Gabriel; Saez, Marc; Rodriguez-Poncelas, Antonio; Barceló-Rado, Antonia; Vargas-Vila, Susanna; Garre-Olmo, Josep; Sala, Victoria; Sieira, Angels; Gelada, Esther; Gelado-Ferrero, Jesús

2012-06-01

The aim is to evaluate whether cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification in newly diagnosed hypertensive patients according to the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) guidelines, can predict the evolution of target organ damage (TOD) using routine examinations in clinical practice during 1 year. Prospective study of recently diagnosed untreated hypertensives. At the moment of inclusion and 1 year later, urinary albumin excretion rate (UAER), blood analysis, electrocardiogram, retinography, self-monitored blood pressure (BP) and ambulatory BP measurement were performed. TOD was defined following the ESH guidelines and evaluated as having favorable or unfavorable evolution. Four hundred and seventy-nine hypertensive patients were included (58.8 years; 43.4% women). The baseline prevalence of TOD was: high UAER (2.4%), left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) (20.7%), advanced lesion of the fundus oculi (FO) (10.2%). After 1 year, no differences were found between the final systolic and diastolic BP neither in the high/very high nor in the low/moderate CV risk groups. Patients with low/moderate CV risk had less unfavorable TOD evolution, LVH (9.2% vs 41.7%; p <0.001), FO advanced damage (0.99% vs 14.3%; p <0.001), high UAER (0.3% vs 5.1%; p <0.005) and amount of TOD (9.2% vs 44.0%; 0<0.001) than those with high/very high CV risk. The odds ratios of favorable TOD evolution adjusted for BP change and antihypertensive drug treatment were (low/moderate vs high/very high CV risk); 5.14 (95% confidence interval, CI, 3.99-6.64) for LVH; 12.42 (6.67-23.14) FO advanced damage; 10.71 (3.67-31.22) high UAER and 13.99 (10.18-19.22) for amount of TOD. It is possible to detect variations in TOD in hypertensive patients with a 1-year follow-up using the examinations available in routine clinic practice. The risk determined by the ESH guidelines predicts the evolution of TOD at 1 year.

Computational cardiology and risk stratification for sudden cardiac death: one of the grand challenges for cardiology in the 21st century.

PubMed

Hill, Adam P; Perry, Matthew D; Abi-Gerges, Najah; Couderc, Jean-Philippe; Fermini, Bernard; Hancox, Jules C; Knollmann, Bjorn C; Mirams, Gary R; Skinner, Jon; Zareba, Wojciech; Vandenberg, Jamie I

2016-12-01

Risk stratification in the context of sudden cardiac death has been acknowledged as one of the major challenges facing cardiology for the past four decades. In recent years, the advent of high performance computing has facilitated organ-level simulation of the heart, meaning we can now examine the causes, mechanisms and impact of cardiac dysfunction in silico. As a result, computational cardiology, largely driven by the Physiome project, now stands at the threshold of clinical utility in regards to risk stratification and treatment of patients at risk of sudden cardiac death. In this white paper, we outline a roadmap of what needs to be done to make this translational step, using the relatively well-developed case of acquired or drug-induced long QT syndrome as an exemplar case. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Physiological Society.

Emergence of molecular imaging of aortic aneurysm; implications for risk stratification and management

PubMed Central

Golestani, Reza; Sadeghi, Mehran M.

2014-01-01

Summary Imaging cellular and molecular processes associated with aneurysm expansion, dissection, and rupture can potentially transform the management of patients with thoracic and abdominal aortic aneurysm (TAA and AAA). Here, we review recent advances in molecular imaging of aortic aneurysm, focusing on imaging modalities with the greatest potential for clinical translation and application, PET, SPECT and MRI. Inflammation (e.g., with 18F-FDG, nanoparticles) and matrix remodeling (e.g., with matrix metalloproteinase-targeted tracers) are highlighted as promising targets for molecular imaging of aneurysm. Potential alternative or complementary approaches to molecular imaging for aneurysm risk stratification are briefly discussed. PMID:24381115

Risk stratification in myelodysplastic syndromes: is there a role for gene expression profiling?

PubMed

Zeidan, Amer M; Prebet, Thomas; Saad Aldin, Ehab; Gore, Steven David

2014-04-01

Evaluation of: Pellagatti A, Benner A, Mills KI et al. Identification of gene expression-based prognostic markers in the hematopoietic stem cells of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. J. Clin. Oncol. 31(28), 3557-3564 (2013). Patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) exhibit wide heterogeneity in clinical outcomes making accurate risk-stratification an integral part of the risk-adaptive management paradigm. Current prognostic schemes for MDS rely on clinicopathological parameters. Despite the increasing knowledge of the genetic landscape of MDS and the prognostic impact of many newly discovered molecular aberrations, none to date has been incorporated formally into the major risk models. Efforts are ongoing to use data generated from genome-wide high-throughput techniques to improve the 'individualized' outcome prediction for patients. We here discuss an important paper in which gene expression profiling (GEP) technology was applied to marrow CD34(+) cells from 125 MDS patients to generate and validate a standardized GEP-based prognostic signature.

Hypocalcaemia following total thyroidectomy: early post-operative parathyroid hormone assay as a risk stratification and management tool.

PubMed

Islam, S; Al Maqbali, T; Howe, D; Campbell, J

2014-03-01

To develop a practical, efficient and predictive algorithm to manage potential or actual post-operative hypocalcaemia after complete thyroidectomy, using a single post-operative parathyroid hormone assay. This paper reports a prospective study of 59 patients who underwent total or completion thyroidectomy over a period of 24 months. Parathyroid hormone levels were checked post-operatively on the day of surgery, and all patients were evaluated for hypocalcaemia both clinically and biochemically with serial corrected calcium measurements. No patient with an early post-operative parathyroid hormone level of 23 ng/l or more (i.e. approximately twice the lower limit of the normal range) developed hypocalcaemia. All the patients who initially had post-operative hypocalcaemia but had an early parathyroid hormone level of 8 ng/l or more (i.e. approximately two-thirds of the lower limit of the normal range) had complete resolution of their hypocalcaemia within three months. Early post-operative parathyroid hormone measurement can reliably predict patients at risk of post-thyroidectomy hypocalcaemia, and predict those patients expected to recover from temporary hypocalcaemia. A suggested post-operative management algorithm is presented.

Hyperuricemia and the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation--could it refine clinical risk stratification in AF?

PubMed

Chao, Tze-Fan; Liu, Chia-Jen; Chen, Su-Jung; Wang, Kang-Ling; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Tsao, Hsuan-Ming; Chen, Shih-Ann

2014-01-01

Although hyperuricemia has been reported to be a risk factor of stroke, the relationship between hyperuricemia and stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains uncertain. The goal of the present study was to investigate whether hyperuricemia could potentially refine clinical risk stratification in AF. This study used the "National Health Insurance Research Database" in Taiwan. A total of 7601 AF patients who did not receive antiplatelet agents or oral anticoagulants were identified as the study population. Hyperuricemia was defined as having at least one episode of gout attack necessitating long-term treatment with uric acid-lowering agents. The association between hyperuricemia and ischemic stroke was analyzed. During the follow up of 3.0±2.7 years, 1116 patients (14.7%) experienced ischemic stroke with an annual rate of around 4.9%. Hyperuricemia significantly predicts stroke, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.280 after adjusting for CHA2DS2-VASc score and other comorbidities. Among the 376 patients with a CHA2DS2VASc score of 0, hyperuricemia can further stratify them into 2 groups with different stroke rates (7.1% versus 1.3%, p=0.020). The adjusted HR of hyperuricemia in predicting ischemic stroke diminished from 7.491 for patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 to 1.659 for those with a score of 3, and became insignificant for patients with a score ≥4. Hyperuricemia was a significant risk factor of stroke which could potentially refine the clinical risk stratification in AF. It deserves a prospective trial to investigate whether it would change the current strategy for stroke preventions using oral anticoagulants. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Long-Term Outcomes in Pleural Infections. RAPID Score for Risk Stratification.

PubMed

White, Heath D; Henry, Christopher; Stock, Eileen M; Arroliga, Alejandro C; Ghamande, Shekhar

2015-09-01

Pleural infections are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The recently developed RAPID (renal, age, purulence, infection source, and dietary factors) score consists of five clinical factors that can identify patients at risk for increased mortality. The objective of this study was to further validate the RAPID score in a diverse cohort, identify factors associated with mortality, and provide long-term outcomes. We evaluated a single-center retrospective cohort of 187 patients with culture-positive pleural infections. Patients were classified by RAPID scores into low-risk (0-2), medium-risk (3-4), and high-risk (5-7) groups. The Social Security Death Index was used to determine date of death. All-cause mortality was assessed at 3 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Clinical factors and comorbid conditions were evaluated for association. Three-month mortality for low-, medium-, and high-risk groups was 1.5, 17.8, and 47.8%, respectively. Increased odds were observed among medium-risk (odds ratio, 14.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-112.6; P = 0.01) and high-risk groups (odds ratio, 53.3; 95% confidence interval, 6.8-416.8; P < 0.01). This trend continued at 1, 3, and 5 years. Factors associated with high-risk scores include gram-negative rod infections, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, lung disease, and increased length of stay. When applied to a diverse patient cohort, the RAPID score predicts outcomes in patients up to 5 years and may aid in long-term risk stratification on presentation.

The HAT Score-A Simple Risk Stratification Score for Coagulopathic Bleeding During Adult Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation.

PubMed

Lonergan, Terence; Herr, Daniel; Kon, Zachary; Menaker, Jay; Rector, Raymond; Tanaka, Kenichi; Mazzeffi, Michael

2017-06-01

The study objective was to create an adult extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) coagulopathic bleeding risk score. Secondary analysis was performed on an existing retrospective cohort. Pre-ECMO variables were tested for association with coagulopathic bleeding, and those with the strongest association were included in a multivariable model. Using this model, a risk stratification score was created. The score's utility was validated by comparing bleeding and transfusion rates between score levels. Bleeding also was examined after stratifying by nadir platelet count and overanticoagulation. Predictive power of the score was compared against the risk score for major bleeding during anti-coagulation for atrial fibrillation (HAS-BLED). Tertiary care academic medical center. The study comprised patients who received venoarterial or venovenous ECMO over a 3-year period, excluding those with an identified source of surgical bleeding during exploration. None. Fifty-three (47.3%) of 112 patients experienced coagulopathic bleeding. A 3-variable score-hypertension, age greater than 65, and ECMO type (HAT)-had fair predictive value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.66) and was superior to HAS-BLED (AUC = 0.64). As the HAT score increased from 0 to 3, bleeding rates also increased as follows: 30.8%, 48.7%, 63.0%, and 71.4%, respectively. Platelet and fresh frozen plasma transfusion tended to increase with the HAT score, but red blood cell transfusion did not. Nadir platelet count less than 50×10 3 /µL and overanticoagulation during ECMO increased the AUC for the model to 0.73, suggesting additive risk. The HAT score may allow for bleeding risk stratification in adult ECMO patients. Future studies in larger cohorts are necessary to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinical risk stratification in patients with surgically resectable micropapillary bladder cancer.

PubMed

Fernández, Mario I; Williams, Stephen B; Willis, Daniel L; Slack, Rebecca S; Dickstein, Rian J; Parikh, Sahil; Chiong, Edmund; Siefker-Radtke, Arlene O; Guo, Charles C; Czerniak, Bogdan A; McConkey, David J; Shah, Jay B; Pisters, Louis L; Grossman, H Barton; Dinney, Colin P N; Kamat, Ashish M

2017-05-01

To analyse survival in patients with clinically localised, surgically resectable micropapillary bladder cancer (MPBC) undergoing radical cystectomy (RC) with and without neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and develop risk strata based on outcome data. A review of our database identified 103 patients with surgically resectable (≤cT4acN0 cM0) MPBC who underwent RC. Survival estimates were calculated using Kaplan-Meier method and compared using log-rank tests. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was performed to identify risk groups for survival. For the entire cohort, estimated 5-year overall survival and disease-specific survival (DSS) rates were 52% and 58%, respectively. CART analysis identified three risk subgroups: low-risk: cT1, no hydronephrosis; high-risk: ≥cT2, no hydronephrosis; and highest-risk: cTany with tumour-associated hydronephrosis. The 5-year DSS for the low-, high-, and highest-risk groups were 92%, 51%, and 17%, respectively (P < 0.001). Patients down-staged at RC risk stratification before treatment recommendations can be made. © 2016 The Authors BJU International © 2016 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Stratification of breast cancer risk in women with atypia: a Mayo cohort study.

PubMed

Degnim, Amy C; Visscher, Daniel W; Berman, Hal K; Frost, Marlene H; Sellers, Thomas A; Vierkant, Robert A; Maloney, Shaun D; Pankratz, V Shane; de Groen, Piet C; Lingle, Wilma L; Ghosh, Karthik; Penheiter, Lois; Tlsty, Thea; Melton, L Joseph; Reynolds, Carol A; Hartmann, Lynn C

2007-07-01

Atypical hyperplasia is a well-recognized risk factor for breast cancer, conveying an approximately four-fold increased risk. Data regarding long-term absolute risk and factors for risk stratification are needed. Women with atypical hyperplasia in the Mayo Benign Breast Disease Cohort were identified through pathology review. Subsequent breast cancers were identified via medical records and a questionnaire. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated using standardized incidence ratios, comparing the observed number of breast cancers with those expected based on Iowa Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. Age, histologic factors, and family history were evaluated as risk modifiers. Plots of cumulative breast cancer incidence provided estimates of risk over time. With mean follow-up of 13.7 years, 66 breast cancers (19.9%) occurred among 331 women with atypia. RR of breast cancer with atypia was 3.88 (95% CI, 3.00 to 4.94). Marked elevations in risk were seen with multifocal atypia (eg, three or more foci with calcifications [RR, 10.35; 95% CI, 6.13 to 16.4]). RR was higher for younger women (< 45; RR, 6.76; 95% CI, 3.24 to 12.4). Risk was similar for atypical ductal and atypical lobular hyperplasia, and family history added no significant risk. Breast cancer risk remained elevated over 20 years, and the cumulative incidence approached 35% at 30 years. Among women with atypical hyperplasia, multiple foci of atypia and the presence of histologic calcifications may indicate "very high risk" status (> 50% risk at 20 years). A positive family history does not further increase risk in women with atypia.

Risk stratification of gallbladder polyps (1-2 cm) for surgical intervention with 18F-FDG PET/CT.

PubMed

Lee, Jaehoon; Yun, Mijin; Kim, Kyoung-Sik; Lee, Jong-Doo; Kim, Chun K

2012-03-01

We assessed the value of (18)F-FDG uptake in the gallbladder polyp (GP) in risk stratification for surgical intervention and the optimal cutoff level of the parameters derived from GP (18)F-FDG uptake for differentiating malignant from benign etiologies in a select, homogeneous group of patients with 1- to 2-cm GPs. Fifty patients with 1- to 2-cm GPs incidentally found on the CT portion of PET/CT were retrospectively analyzed. All patients had histologic diagnoses. GP (18)F-FDG activity was visually scored positive (≥liver) or negative (risk stratification. Twenty GPs were classified as malignant and 30 as benign. Multivariate analyses showed that the age and all parameters (visual criteria, SUVgp, and GP/L) related to (18)F-FDG uptake were significant risk factors, with the GP/L being the most significant. The sex, size of GPs, and presence of concurrent gallstones were found to be insignificant. (18)F-FDG uptake in a GP is a strong risk factor that can be used to determine the necessity of surgical intervention more effectively than other known risk factors. However, all criteria derived from (18)F-FDG uptake presented in this series may be applicable to the assessment of 1- to 2-cm GPs.

Combining abdominal and cosmetic breast surgery does not increase short-term complication rates: a comparison of each individual procedure and pretreatment risk stratification tool.

PubMed

Khavanin, Nima; Jordan, Sumanas W; Vieira, Brittany L; Hume, Keith M; Mlodinow, Alexei S; Simmons, Christopher J; Murphy, Robert X; Gutowski, Karol A; Kim, John Y S

2015-11-01

Combined abdominal and breast surgery presents a convenient and relatively cost-effective approach for accomplishing both procedures. This study is the largest to date assessing the safety of combined procedures, and it aims to develop a simple pretreatment risk stratification method for patients who desire a combined procedure. All women undergoing abdominoplasty, panniculectomy, augmentation mammaplasty, and/or mastopexy in the TOPS database were identified. Demographics and outcomes for combined procedures were compared to individual procedures using χ(2) and Student's t-tests. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios for the effect of a combined procedure on 30-day complications. Among combined procedures, a logistic regression model determined point values for pretreatment risk factors including diabetes (1 point), age over 53 (1), obesity (2), and 3+ ASA status (3), creating a 7-point pretreatment risk stratification tool. A total of 58,756 cases met inclusion criteria. Complication rates among combined procedures (9.40%) were greater than those of aesthetic breast surgery (2.66%; P < .001) but did not significantly differ from abdominal procedures (9.75%; P = .530). Nearly 77% of combined cases were classified as low-risk (0 points total) with a 9.78% complication rates. Medium-risk patients (1 to 3 points) had a 16.63% complication rate, and high-risk (4 to 7 points) 38.46%. Combining abdominal and breast procedures is safe in the majority of patients and does not increase 30-day complications rates. The risk stratification tool can continue to ensure favorable outcomes for patients who may desire a combined surgery. 4 Risk. © 2015 The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Inc. Reprints and permission: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Application of multivariate probabilistic (Bayesian) networks to substance use disorder risk stratification and cost estimation.

PubMed

Weinstein, Lawrence; Radano, Todd A; Jack, Timothy; Kalina, Philip; Eberhardt, John S

2009-09-16

This paper explores the use of machine learning and Bayesian classification models to develop broadly applicable risk stratification models to guide disease management of health plan enrollees with substance use disorder (SUD). While the high costs and morbidities associated with SUD are understood by payers, who manage it through utilization review, acute interventions, coverage and cost limitations, and disease management, the literature shows mixed results for these modalities in improving patient outcomes and controlling cost. Our objective is to evaluate the potential of data mining methods to identify novel risk factors for chronic disease and stratification of enrollee utilization, which can be used to develop new methods for targeting disease management services to maximize benefits to both enrollees and payers. For our evaluation, we used DecisionQ machine learning algorithms to build Bayesian network models of a representative sample of data licensed from Thomson-Reuters' MarketScan consisting of 185,322 enrollees with three full-year claim records. Data sets were prepared, and a stepwise learning process was used to train a series of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). The BBNs were validated using a 10 percent holdout set. The networks were highly predictive, with the risk-stratification BBNs producing area under the curve (AUC) for SUD positive of 0.948 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.944-0.951) and 0.736 (95 percent CI, 0.721-0.752), respectively, and SUD negative of 0.951 (95 percent CI, 0.947-0.954) and 0.738 (95 percent CI, 0.727-0.750), respectively. The cost estimation models produced area under the curve ranging from 0.72 (95 percent CI, 0.708-0.731) to 0.961 (95 percent CI, 0.95-0.971). We were able to successfully model a large, heterogeneous population of commercial enrollees, applying state-of-the-art machine learning technology to develop complex and accurate multivariate models that support near-real-time scoring of novel payer

Incorporating Stroke and Bleeding Risk Stratification Tools into Atrial Fibrillation Management Making Sense of the Alphabet Soup.

PubMed

Deering, Thomas F

2017-01-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia managed by many physicians in a variety of clinical settings. One of the most important clinical decisions related to effective AF management centers upon the need to perform accurate thromboembolic risk stratification followed by effective management decisions that align with established guidelines. This manuscript will review the present state of the art and provide guidance to physicians to enhance patient outcomes.

Congenital and hereditary causes of sudden cardiac death in young adults: diagnosis, differential diagnosis, and risk stratification.

PubMed

Stojanovska, Jadranka; Garg, Anubhav; Patel, Smita; Melville, David M; Kazerooni, Ella A; Mueller, Gisela C

2013-01-01

Sudden cardiac death is defined as death from unexpected circulatory arrest-usually a result of cardiac arrhythmia-that occurs within 1 hour of the onset of symptoms. Proper and timely identification of individuals at risk for sudden cardiac death and the diagnosis of its predisposing conditions are vital. A careful history and physical examination, in addition to electrocardiography and cardiac imaging, are essential to identify conditions associated with sudden cardiac death. Among young adults (18-35 years), sudden cardiac death most commonly results from a previously undiagnosed congenital or hereditary condition, such as coronary artery anomalies and inherited cardiomyopathies (eg, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy [ARVC], dilated cardiomyopathy, and noncompaction cardiomyopathy). Overall, the most common causes of sudden cardiac death in young adults are, in descending order of frequency, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, coronary artery anomalies with an interarterial or intramural course, and ARVC. Often, sudden cardiac death is precipitated by ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation and may be prevented with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). Risk stratification to determine the need for an ICD is challenging and involves imaging, particularly echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. Coronary artery anomalies, a diverse group of congenital disorders with a variable manifestation, may be depicted at coronary computed tomographic angiography or MR angiography. A thorough understanding of clinical risk stratification, imaging features, and complementary diagnostic tools for the evaluation of cardiac disorders that may lead to sudden cardiac death is essential to effectively use imaging to guide diagnosis and therapy.

Risk stratification of gallbladder polyps larger than 10 mm using high-resolution ultrasonography and texture analysis.

PubMed

Choi, Tae Won; Kim, Jung Hoon; Park, Sang Joon; Ahn, Su Joa; Joo, Ijin; Han, Joon Koo

2018-01-01

To assess important features for risk stratification of gallbladder (GB) polyps >10 mm using high-resolution ultrasonography (HRUS) and texture analysis. We included 136 patients with GB polyps (>10 mm) who underwent both HRUS and cholecystectomy (non-neoplastic, n = 58; adenomatous, n = 32; and carcinoma, n = 46). Two radiologists retrospectively assessed HRUS findings and texture analysis. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify significant predictors for neoplastic polyps and carcinomas. Single polyp (OR, 3.680-3.856) and larger size (OR, 1.450-1.477) were independently associated with neoplastic polyps (p < 0.05). In a single or polyp >14 mm, sensitivity for differentiating neoplastic from non-neoplastic polyps was 92.3%. To differentiate carcinoma from adenoma, sessile shape (OR, 9.485-41.257), larger size (OR, 1.267-1.303), higher skewness (OR, 6.382) and lower grey-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) contrast (OR, 0.963) were significant predictors (p < 0.05). In a polyp >22 mm or sessile, sensitivity for differentiating carcinomas from adenomas was 93.5-95.7%. If a polyp demonstrated at least one HRUS finding and at least one texture feature, the specificity for diagnosing carcinoma was increased to 90.6-93.8%. In a GB polyp >10 mm, single and diameter >14 mm were useful for predicting neoplastic polyps. In neoplastic polyps, sessile shape, diameter >22 mm, higher skewness and lower GLCM contrast were useful for predicting carcinoma. • Risk of neoplastic polyp is low in <14 mm and multiple polyps • A sessile polyp or >22 mm has increased risk for GB carcinomas • Higher skewness and lower GLCM contrast are predictors of GB carcinoma • HRUS is useful for risk stratification of GB polyps >1 cm.

Doppler endoscopic probe as a guide to risk stratification and definitive hemostasis of peptic ulcer bleeding.

PubMed

Jensen, Dennis M; Ohning, Gordon V; Kovacs, Thomas O G; Ghassemi, Kevin A; Jutabha, Rome; Dulai, Gareth S; Machicado, Gustavo A

2016-01-01

For more than 4 decades endoscopists have relied on ulcer stigmata for risk stratification and as a guide to hemostasis. None used arterial blood flow underneath stigmata to predict outcomes. For patients with severe peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB), we used a Doppler endoscopic probe (DEP) for (1) detection of blood flow underlying stigmata of recent hemorrhage (SRH), (2) quantitating rates of residual arterial blood flow under SRH after visually directed standard endoscopic treatment, and (3) comparing risks of rebleeding and actual 30-day rebleed rates for spurting arterial bleeding (Forrest [F] IA) and oozing bleeding (F IB). Prospective cohort study of 163 consecutive patients with severe PUB and different SRH. All blood flow detected by the DEP was arterial. Detection rates were 87.4% in major SRH-spurting arterial bleeding (F IA), non-bleeding visible vessel (F IIA), clot (F IIB)-and were significantly lower at 42.3% (P < .0001) for an intermediate group of oozing bleeding (F IB) or flat spot (F IIC). For spurting bleeding (F IA) versus oozing (F IB), baseline DEP arterial flow was 100% versus 46.7%, residual blood flow detected after endoscopic hemostasis was 35.7% versus 0%, and 30-day rebleed rates were 28.6% versus 0% (all P < .05). (1) For major SRH versus oozing or spot, the arterial blood flow detection rate by the DEP was significantly higher, indicating a higher rebleed risk. (2) Before and after endoscopic treatment, spurting (F IA) PUB had significantly higher rates of blood flow detection than oozing (F IB) PUB and a significantly higher 30-day rebleed rate. (3) The DEP is recommended as a new endoscopic guide with SRH to improve risk stratification and potentially definitive hemostasis for PUB. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Doppler Endoscopic Probe as a Guide to Risk Stratification and Definitive Hemostasis of Peptic Ulcer Bleeding

PubMed Central

Jensen, Dennis M.; Ohning, Gordon V.; Kovacs, Thomas OG; Ghassemi, Kevin A.; Jutabha, Rome; Dulai, Gareth S.; Machicado, Gustavo A.

2015-01-01

Background and Aims For more than 4 decades endoscopists have relied on ulcer stigmata for risk stratification and as a guide to hemostasis. None used arterial blood flow underneath stigmata to predict outcomes. For patients with severe peptic ulcer bleeding (PUBs), we used Doppler endoscopic probe (DEP) for: 1. detection of blood flow underlying stigmata of recent hemorrhage (SRH), 2. quantitating rates of residual arterial blood flow under SRH after visually directed standard endoscopic treatment, and 3. comparing risks of rebleeding and actual 30 day rebleed rates for spurting arterial bleeding (Forrest – FIA) and oozing bleeding (FIB). Methods Prospective cohort study of 163 consecutive patients with severe PUBs and different SRH. Results All blood flow detected by DEP was arterial. Detection rates were 87.4% in major SRH - spurting arterial bleeding (FIA), non bleeding visible vessel (FIIA), clot (FIIB) - and significantly lower at 42.3% (p<0.0001) for intermediate group of oozing bleeding (FIB) or flat spot (FIIC). For spurting bleeding (FIA) vs. oozing (FIB), baseline DEP arterial flow was 100% vs. 46.7%; residual blood flow detected after endoscopic hemostasis was 35.7% vs. 0%; and 30 day rebleed rates were 28.6% vs. 0% (all p<0.05). Conclusions 1. For major SRH vs. oozing or spot, the arterial blood flow detection rates by DEP was significantly higher, indicating a higher rebleed risk. 2. Before and after endoscopic treatment, spurting FIA PUB’s had significantly higher rates of blood flow detection than oozing FIB PUB’s and a significantly higher 30 rebleed rate. 3. DEP is recommended as a new endoscopic guide with SRH to improve risk stratification and potentially definitive hemostasis for PUBs. PMID:26318834

Value of Exercise Stress Electrocardiography for Risk Stratification in Patients With Suspected or Known Coronary Artery Disease in the Era of Advanced Imaging Technologies

PubMed Central

Bourque, Jamieson M.; Beller, George A.

2015-01-01

Exercise stress electrocardiography (ExECG) is underutilized as the initial test modality in patients with interpretable electrocardiograms able to exercise. Although, stress myocardial imaging techniques provide valuable diagnostic and prognostic information, variables derived from ExECG can yield substantial data for risk stratification, either supplementary to imaging variables, or without concurrent imaging. In addition to exercise-induced ischemic ST depression, such markers as ST segment elevation in lead AVR, abnormal heart rate recovery post-exercise, failure to achieve target heart rate, and poor exercise capacity improve risk stratification of ExECG. For example, patients achieving ≥10 METS on ExECG have a very low prevalence of inducible ischemia and an excellent prognosis. In contrast, cardiac imaging techniques add diagnostic and prognostic value in higher risk populations (e.g. poor functional capacity, diabetes, chronic kidney disease). Optimal test selection for symptomatic patients with suspected coronary artery disease requires a patient-centered approach factoring in the risk/benefit ratio and cost-effectiveness. PMID:26563861

Epithelial stratification and placode invagination are separable functions in early morphogenesis of the molar tooth

PubMed Central

Li, Jingjing; Chatzeli, Lemonia; Panousopoulou, Eleni; Tucker, Abigail S.; Green, Jeremy B. A.

2016-01-01

Ectodermal organs, which include teeth, hair follicles, mammary ducts, and glands such as sweat, mucous and sebaceous glands, are initiated in development as placodes, which are epithelial thickenings that invaginate and bud into the underlying mesenchyme. These placodes are stratified into a basal and several suprabasal layers of cells. The mechanisms driving stratification and invagination are poorly understood. Using the mouse molar tooth as a model for ectodermal organ morphogenesis, we show here that vertical, stratifying cell divisions are enriched in the forming placode and that stratification is cell division dependent. Using inhibitor and gain-of-function experiments, we show that FGF signalling is necessary and sufficient for stratification but not invagination as such. We show that, instead, Shh signalling is necessary for, and promotes, invagination once suprabasal tissue is generated. Shh-dependent suprabasal cell shape suggests convergent migration and intercalation, potentially accounting for post-stratification placode invagination to bud stage. We present a model in which FGF generates suprabasal tissue by asymmetric cell division, while Shh triggers cell rearrangement in this tissue to drive invagination all the way to bud formation. PMID:26755699

Microalbuminuria could improve risk stratification in patients with TIA and minor stroke.

PubMed

Elyas, Salim; Shore, Angela C; Kingwell, Hayley; Keenan, Samantha; Boxall, Leigh; Stewart, Jane; James, Martin A; Strain, William David

2016-09-01

Transient ischemic attacks (TIA) and minor strokes are important risk factors for recurrent strokes. Current stroke risk prediction scores such as ABCD2, although widely used, lack optimal sensitivity and specificity. Elevated urinary albumin excretion predicts cardiovascular disease, stroke, and mortality. We explored the role of microalbuminuria (using albumin creatinine ratio (ACR)) in predicting recurrence risk in patients with TIA and minor stroke. Urinary ACR was measured on a spot sample in 150 patients attending a daily stroke clinic with TIA or minor stroke. Patients were followed up at day 7, 30, and 90 to determine recurrent stroke, cardiovascular events, or death. Eligible patients had a carotid ultrasound Doppler investigation. High-risk patients were defined as those who had an event within 90 days or had >50% internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis. Fourteen (9.8%) recurrent events were reported by day 90 including two deaths. Fifteen patients had severe ICA stenosis. In total, 26 patients were identified as high risk. These patients had a higher frequency of previous stroke or hypercholesterolemia compared to low-risk patients (P = 0.04). ACR was higher in high-risk patients (3.4 [95% CI 2.2-5.2] vs. 1.7 [1.5-2.1] mg/mmol, P = 0.004), independent of age, sex, blood pressure, diabetes, and previous stroke. An ACR greater than 1.5 mg/mmol predicted high-risk patients (Cox proportional hazard ratio 3.5 (95% CI 1.3-9.5, P = 0.01). After TIA or minor stroke, a higher ACR predicted recurrent events and significant ICA stenosis. Incorporation of urinary ACR from a spot sample in the acute setting could improve risk stratification in patients with TIA and minor stroke.

A Personalized Risk Stratification Platform for Population Lifetime Healthcare.

PubMed

Daowd, Ali; Abidi, Samina Raza; Abusharekh, Ashraf; Abidi, Syed Sibte Raza

2018-01-01

Chronic diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide. It is well understood that if modifiable risk factors are targeted, most chronic diseases can be prevented. Lifetime health is an emerging health paradigm that aims to assist individuals to achieve desired health targets, and avoid harmful lifecycle choices to mitigate the risk of chronic diseases. Early risk identification is central to lifetime health. In this paper, we present a digital health-based platform (PRISM) that leverages artificial intelligence, data visualization and mobile health technologies to empower citizens to self-assess, self-monitor and self-manage their overall risk of major chronic diseases and pursue personalized chronic disease prevention programs. PRISM offers risk assessment tools for 5 chronic conditions, 2 psychiatric disorders and 8 different cancers.

Pre-discharge stress echocardiography and exercise ECG for risk stratification after uncomplicated acute myocardial infarction: results of the COSTAMI-II (cost of strategies after myocardial infarction) trial

PubMed Central

Desideri, A; Fioretti, P M; Cortigiani, L; Trocino, G; Astarita, C; Gregori, D; Bax, J; Velasco, J; Celegon, L; Bigi, R; Pirelli, S; Picano, E

2005-01-01

Objective: To compare in a prospective, randomised, multicentre trial the relative merits of pre-discharge exercise ECG and early pharmacological stress echocardiography concerning risk stratification and costs of treating patients with uncomplicated acute myocardial infarction. Design: 262 patients from six participating centres with a recent uncomplicated myocardial infarction were randomly assigned to early (day 3–5) pharmacological stress echocardiography (n  =  132) or conventional pre-discharge (day 7–9) maximum symptom limited exercise ECG (n  =  130). Results: No complication occurred during either stress echocardiography or exercise ECG. At one year follow up there were 26 events (1 death, 5 non-fatal reinfarctions, 20 patients with unstable angina requiring hospitalisation) in patients randomly assigned to early stress echocardiography and 18 events (2 reinfarctions, 16 unstable angina requiring hospitalisation) in the group randomly assigned to exercise ECG (not significant). The negative predictive value was 92% for stress echocardiography and 88% for exercise ECG (not significant). Total costs of the two strategies were similar (not significant). Conclusion: Early pharmacological stress echocardiography and conventional pre-discharge symptom limited exercise ECG have similar clinical outcome and costs after uncomplicated infarction. Early pharmacological stress echocardiography should be considered a valid alternative even for patients with interpretable baseline ECG who can exercise. PMID:15657220

Pre-discharge stress echocardiography and exercise ECG for risk stratification after uncomplicated acute myocardial infarction: results of the COSTAMI-II (cost of strategies after myocardial infarction) trial.

PubMed

Desideri, A; Fioretti, P M; Cortigiani, L; Trocino, G; Astarita, C; Gregori, D; Bax, J; Velasco, J; Celegon, L; Bigi, R; Pirelli, S; Picano, E

2005-02-01

To compare in a prospective, randomised, multicentre trial the relative merits of pre-discharge exercise ECG and early pharmacological stress echocardiography concerning risk stratification and costs of treating patients with uncomplicated acute myocardial infarction. 262 patients from six participating centres with a recent uncomplicated myocardial infarction were randomly assigned to early (day 3-5) pharmacological stress echocardiography (n = 132) or conventional pre-discharge (day 7-9) maximum symptom limited exercise ECG (n = 130). No complication occurred during either stress echocardiography or exercise ECG. At one year follow up there were 26 events (1 death, 5 non-fatal reinfarctions, 20 patients with unstable angina requiring hospitalisation) in patients randomly assigned to early stress echocardiography and 18 events (2 reinfarctions, 16 unstable angina requiring hospitalisation) in the group randomly assigned to exercise ECG (not significant). The negative predictive value was 92% for stress echocardiography and 88% for exercise ECG (not significant). Total costs of the two strategies were similar (not significant). Early pharmacological stress echocardiography and conventional pre-discharge symptom limited exercise ECG have similar clinical outcome and costs after uncomplicated infarction. Early pharmacological stress echocardiography should be considered a valid alternative even for patients with interpretable baseline ECG who can exercise.

World Health Organization cardiovascular risk stratification and target organ damage.

PubMed

Piskorz, D; Bongarzoni, L; Citta, L; Citta, N; Citta, P; Keller, L; Mata, L; Tommasi, A

2016-01-01

Prediction charts allow treatment to be targeted according to simple markers of cardiovascular risk; many algorithms do not recommend screening asymptomatic target organ damage which could change dramatically the assessment. To demonstrate that target organ damage is present in low cardiovascular risk hypertensive patients and it is more frequent and severe as global cardiovascular risk increases. Consecutive hypertensive patients treated at a single Latin American center. Cardiovascular risk stratified according to 2013 WHO/ISH risk prediction chart America B. Left ventricular mass assessed by Devereux method, left ventricular hypertrophy considered >95g/m(2) in women and >115g/m(2) in men. Transmitral diastolic peak early flow velocity to average septal/lateral peak early diastolic relaxation velocity (E/e' ratio) measured cut off value >13. Systolic function assessed by tissue Doppler average interventricular septum/lateral wall mitral annulus rate systolic excursion (s wave). A total of 292 patients were included of whom 159 patients (54.5%) had cardiovascular risk of <10%, 90 (30.8%) had cardiovascular risk of 10-20% and 43 (14.7%) had cardiovascular risk of >20%. Left ventricular hypertrophy was detected in 17.6% low risk patients, 27.8% in medium risk and 23.3% in high risk (p<0.05), abnormal E/e' ratio was found in 13.8%, 31.1% and 27.9%, respectively (p<0.05). Mean s wave was 8.03+8, 8.1+9 and 8.7+1cm/s for low, intermediate and high risk patients, respectively (p<0.025). Target organ damage is more frequent and severe in high risk; one over four subjects was misclassified due to the presence of asymptomatic target organ damage. Copyright © 2015 SEHLELHA. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Detection and risk stratification of women at high risk of preterm birth in rural communities near Nagpur, India.

PubMed

Patel, Archana; Prakash, Amber Abhijeet; Pusdekar, Yamini V; Kulkarni, Hemant; Hibberd, Patricia

2017-09-19

Presently, preterm birth is globally the leading cause of neonatal mortality. Prompt community based identification of women at high risk for preterm births (HRPB) can either help to avert preterm births or avail effective interventions to reduce neonatal mortality due to preterm births. We evaluated the performance of a package to train community workers to detect the presence of signs or symptoms of HRPB. Pregnant women enrolled in the intervention arm of a cluster randomized trial of Antenatal Corticosteroids (ACT Trial) conducted at Nagpur, India were informed about 4 directly observable signs and symptoms of preterm labor. Community health workers actively monitored these women from 24 to 36 weeks of gestation for these signs or symptoms. If they were present (HRPB positive) the identified women were brought to government health facilities for assessment and management. HRPB positive could also be determined by the provider if the woman presented directly to the facility. Risk stratification was based on the number of signs or symptoms present. The outcome of preterm birth was based on the clinical assessment of gestational age < 37 weeks at delivery or a birth weight of <2000 g. Between July 1, 2012 and 30 November, 2013, 686 of 7050 (9.7%) pregnant women studied, delivered preterm. 732 (10.4%) women were HRPB positive, of whom 333 (45.5%) delivered preterm. Of the remaining 6318(89.6%) HRPB negative women 353 (5.6%) delivered preterm. The likelihood ratio (LR) of a preterm birth in the HRPB positives was 8.14 (95% confidence interval 7.16-9.26). The LR of a preterm birth increased in women who had more signs or symptoms of HRBP (p < 0.00001). More signs or symptoms of HRPB were also associated with a shorter time to delivery, lower birth weight and higher rates of stillbirths, neonatal deaths and postnatal complications. Addition of risk stratification improved the prediction of preterm delivery (Integrated Discrimination Improvement 17% (95% CI 15

Marine redox stratification during the early Cambrian (ca. 529-509 Ma) and its control on the development of organic-rich shales in Yangtze Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yuying; He, Zhiliang; Jiang, Shu; Gao, Bo; Liu, Zhongbao; Han, Bo; Wang, Hu

2017-06-01

High resolution geochemical data from nine sections representing shelf to basinal environments in the Yangtze Platform were analyzed to reconstruct the marine redox environment during early Cambrian. Based on Fe species and Mo/TOC ratios, we have supplemented marine redox stratification during Stage 4 (late Canglangpuian-Longwangmiaoan, ˜514-509 Ma) on basis of the previously studied Stage 2-Stage 3 (Meishucunian-Qiongzhusian, ˜529-514 Ma). A new proposed marine stratified redox model indicates that the middepth "euxinic wedge" developed at the base of slope during ˜514-509 Ma in contrast to that the "euxinic wedge" prevailed at the shelf margin during ˜529-514 Ma, even though these middepth euxinic waters both occurred between the oxic surface waters and ferruginous deep waters. This marine redox stratification resulted in high production and good preservation of organic matter during early Cambrian. TOC values in euxinic waters in the middle are generally higher than in ferruginous waters due to upwelling in slope. Therefore, the lower Cambrian organic-rich shales in the Yangtze Platform are inferred to be deposited under the anoxic-ferruginous and euxinic bottom waters with moderate-strong restriction.

The Value of Elastic Modulus Index as a Novel Surrogate Marker for Cardiovascular Risk Stratification by Dimensional Speckle-Tracking Carotid Ultrasonography

PubMed Central

Yoon, Ji Hyun; Cho, In-Jeong; Sung, Ji Min; Lee, Jinyong; Ryoo, Hojin; Shim, Chi Young; Hong, Geu-Ru; Chung, Namsik

2016-01-01

Background Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) and the presence of carotid plaque have been used for risk stratification of cardiovascular disease (CVD). To date, however, the association between multi-directional functional properties of carotid artery and CVD has not been fully elucidated. We sought to explore the multi-directional mechanics of the carotid artery in relation to cardiovascular risk. Methods Four hundred one patients who underwent carotid ultrasound were enrolled between January 2010 and April 2013. A high risk of CVD was defined as more than 20% of 10-year risk based on the Framingham risk score. Using a speckle-tracking technique, the longitudinal and radial movements were analyzed in the B-mode images. Peak longitudinal and radial displacements, strain and strain rate were also measured. Beta stiffness and elastic modulus index were calculated from the radial measurements. Results Of the overall sample, 13% (52) of patients comprised the high-risk group. In multivariate logistic regression, CIMT and elastic modulus index were independently associated with a high-risk of CVD {odds ratio (OR): 1.810 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.249–2.622] and OR: 1.767 (95% CI: 1.177–2.652); p = 0.002, 0.006, respectively}. The combination of CIMT and elastic modulus index correlated with a high-risk of CVD more so than CIMT alone. Conclusion The elastic modulus index of the carotid artery might serve as a novel surrogate marker of high-risk CVD. Measurement of the multi-directional mechanics of the carotid artery using the speckle tracking technique has potential for providing further information over conventional B-mode ultrasound for stratification of CVD risk. PMID:27721952

Self-Reported Stroke Risk Stratification: Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke Study.

PubMed

Howard, George; McClure, Leslie A; Moy, Claudia S; Howard, Virginia J; Judd, Suzanne E; Yuan, Ya; Long, D Leann; Muntner, Paul; Safford, Monika M; Kleindorfer, Dawn O

2017-07-01

The standard for stroke risk stratification is the Framingham Stroke Risk Function (FSRF), an equation requiring an examination for blood pressure assessment, venipuncture for glucose assessment, and ECG to determine atrial fibrillation and heart disease. We assess a self-reported stroke risk function (SRSRF) to stratify stroke risk in comparison to the FSRF. Participants from the REGARDS study (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) were evaluated at baseline and followed for incident stroke. The FSRF was calculated using directly assessed stroke risk factors. The SRSRF was calculated from 13 self-reported questions to exclude those with prevalent stroke and assess stroke risk. Proportional hazards analysis was used to assess incident stroke risk using the FSRF and SRSRF. Over an average 8.2-year follow-up, 939 of 23 983 participants had a stroke. The FSRF and SRSRF produced highly correlated risk scores ( r Spearman =0.852; 95% confidence interval, 0.849-0.856); however, the SRSRF had higher discrimination of stroke risk than the FSRF (c SRSRF =0.7266; 95% confidence interval, 0.7076-0.7457; c FSRF =0.7075; 95% confidence interval, 0.6877-0.7273; P =0.0038). The 10-year stroke risk in the highest decile of predicted risk was 11.1% for the FSRF and 13.4% for the SRSRF. A simple self-reported questionnaire can be used to identify those at high risk for stroke better than the gold standard FSRF. This instrument can be used clinically to easily identify individuals at high risk for stroke and also scientifically to identify a subpopulation enriched for stroke risk. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

New Insight Into the Biology, Risk Stratification, and Targeted Treatment of Myelodysplastic Syndromes.

PubMed

Haider, Mintallah; Duncavage, Eric J; Afaneh, Khalid F; Bejar, Rafael; List, Alan F

2017-01-01

In myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), somatic mutations occur in five major categories: RNA splicing, DNA methylation, activated cell signaling, myeloid transcription factors, and chromatin modifiers. Although many MDS cases harbor more than one somatic mutation, in general, there is mutual exclusivity of mutated genes within a class. In addition to the prognostic significance of individual somatic mutations, more somatic mutations in MDS have been associated with poor prognosis. Prognostic assessment remains a critical component of the personalization of care for patient with MDS because treatment is highly risk adapted. Multiple methods for risk stratification are available with the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R), currently considered the gold standard. Increasing access to myeloid gene panels and greater evidence for the diagnostic and predictive value of somatic mutations will soon make sequencing part of the standard evaluation of patients with MDS. In the absence of formal guidelines for their prognostic use, well-validated mutations can still refine estimates of risk made with the IPSS-R. Not only are somatic gene mutations advantageous in understanding the biology of MDS and prognosis, they also offer potential as biomarkers and targets for the treatment of patients with MDS. Examples include deletion 5q, spliceosome complex gene mutations, and TP53 mutations.

Risk Stratification of Acute Kidney Injury Using the Blood Urea Nitrogen/Creatinine Ratio in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

PubMed

Takaya, Yoichi; Yoshihara, Fumiki; Yokoyama, Hiroyuki; Kanzaki, Hideaki; Kitakaze, Masafumi; Goto, Yoichi; Anzai, Toshihisa; Yasuda, Satoshi; Ogawa, Hisao; Kawano, Yuhei

2015-01-01

Risk stratification of acute kidney injury (AKI) is important for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). The aim of this study was to determine whether clinical markers, such as the blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BUN/Cr) or BUN or creatinine values alone, stratify the risk of AKI for mortality. In all, 371 consecutive ADHF patients were enrolled in the study. AKI was defined as serum creatinine ≥0.3 mg/dl or a 1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine levels within 48 h. During ADHF therapy, AKI occurred in 99 patients; 55 patients died during the 12-month follow-up period. Grouping patients according to AKI and a median BUN/Cr at admission of 22.1 (non-AKI+low BUN/Cr, non-AKI+high BUN/Cr, AKI+low BUN/Cr, and AKI+high BUN/Cr groups) revealed higher mortality in the AKI+high BUN/Cr group (log-rank test, P<0.001). Cox's proportional hazard analysis revealed an association between AKI+high BUN/Cr and mortality, whereas the association with AKI+low BUN/Cr did not reach statistical significance. When patients were grouped according to AKI and median BUN or creatinine values at admission, AKI was associated with mortality, regardless of BUN or creatinine. The combination of AKI and elevated BUN/Cr, but not BUN or creatinine individually, is linked with an increased risk of mortality in ADHF patients, suggesting that the BUN/Cr is useful for risk stratification of AKI.

Rationale, objectives, and design of the EUTrigTreat clinical study: a prospective observational study for arrhythmia risk stratification and assessment of interrelationships among repolarization markers and genotype

PubMed Central

Seegers, Joachim; Vos, Marc A.; Flevari, Panagiota; Willems, Rik; Sohns, Christian; Vollmann, Dirk; Lüthje, Lars; Kremastinos, Dimitrios T.; Floré, Vincent; Meine, Mathias; Tuinenburg, Anton; Myles, Rachel C.; Simon, Dirk; Brockmöller, Jürgen; Friede, Tim; Hasenfuß, Gerd; Lehnart, Stephan E.; Zabel, Markus

2012-01-01

Aims The EUTrigTreat clinical study has been designed as a prospective multicentre observational study and aims to (i) risk stratify patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) for mortality and shock risk using multiple novel and established risk markers, (ii) explore a link between repolarization biomarkers and genetics of ion (Ca2+, Na+, K+) metabolism, (iii) compare the results of invasive and non-invasive electrophysiological (EP) testing, (iv) assess changes of non-invasive risk stratification tests over time, and (v) associate arrythmogenomic risk through 19 candidate genes. Methods and results Patients with clinical ICD indication are eligible for the trial. Upon inclusion, patients will undergo non-invasive risk stratification, including beat-to-beat variability of repolarization (BVR), T-wave alternans, T-wave morphology variables, ambient arrhythmias from Holter, heart rate variability, and heart rate turbulence. Non-invasive or invasive programmed electrical stimulation will assess inducibility of ventricular arrhythmias, with the latter including recordings of monophasic action potentials and assessment of restitution properties. Established candidate genes are screened for variants. The primary endpoint is all-cause mortality, while one of the secondary endpoints is ICD shock risk. A mean follow-up of 3.3 years is anticipated. Non-invasive testing will be repeated annually during follow-up. It has been calculated that 700 patients are required to identify risk predictors of the primary endpoint, with a possible increase to 1000 patients based on interim risk analysis. Conclusion The EUTrigTreat clinical study aims to overcome current shortcomings in sudden cardiac death risk stratification and to answer several related research questions. The initial patient recruitment is expected to be completed in July 2012, and follow-up is expected to end in September 2014. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01209494. PMID:22117037

68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT for prostate cancer staging and risk stratification in Chinese patients.

PubMed

Zang, Shiming; Shao, Guoqiang; Cui, Can; Li, Tian-Nv; Huang, Yue; Yao, Xiaochen; Fan, Qiu; Chen, Zejun; Du, Jin; Jia, Ruipeng; Sun, Hongbin; Hua, Zichun; Tang, Jun; Wang, Feng

2017-02-14

We evaluated the clinical utility of 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT for staging and risk stratification of treatment-naïve prostate cancer (PCa) and metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Twenty-two consecutive patients with treatment-naïve PCa and 18 with mCRPC were enrolled. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were performed for the evaluation of primary prostatic lesions, and bone scans were used for evaluation bone metastasis. Among the 40 patients, 37 (92.5% [22 treatment-naïve PCa, 15 mCRPC]) showed PSMA-avid lesions on 68Ga-PSMA-11 images. Only 3 patients with stable mCRPC after chemotherapy were negative for PSMA. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of 68Ga-PSMA-11 imaging were 97.3%, 100.0% and 97.5%, respectively. The maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax) of prostatic lesions was 17.09 ± 11.08 and 13.33 ± 12.31 in treatment-naïve PCa and mCRPC, respectively. 68Ga-PSMA-11 revealed 105 metastatic lymph nodes in 15 patients; the SUVmax was 16.85 ± 9.70 and 7.54 ± 5.20 in treatment-naïve PCa and mCRPC, respectively. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT also newly detected visceral metastasis in 9 patients (22.5%) and bone metastasis in 29 patients (72.5%). 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT exhibits potential for staging and risk stratification in naïve PCa, as well as improved sensitivity for detection of lymph node and remote metastasis.

68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT for prostate cancer staging and risk stratification in Chinese patients

PubMed Central

Cui, Can; Li, Tian-Nv; Huang, Yue; Yao, Xiaochen; Fan, Qiu; Chen, Zejun; Du, Jin; Jia, Ruipeng; Sun, Hongbin; Hua, Zichun; Tang, Jun; Wang, Feng

2017-01-01

We evaluated the clinical utility of 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT for staging and risk stratification of treatment-naïve prostate cancer (PCa) and metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Twenty-two consecutive patients with treatment-naïve PCa and 18 with mCRPC were enrolled. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were performed for the evaluation of primary prostatic lesions, and bone scans were used for evaluation bone metastasis. Among the 40 patients, 37 (92.5% [22 treatment-naïve PCa, 15 mCRPC]) showed PSMA-avid lesions on 68Ga-PSMA-11 images. Only 3 patients with stable mCRPC after chemotherapy were negative for PSMA. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of 68Ga-PSMA-11 imaging were 97.3%, 100.0% and 97.5%, respectively. The maximum standardized uptake (SUVmax) of prostatic lesions was 17.09 ± 11.08 and 13.33 ± 12.31 in treatment-naïve PCa and mCRPC, respectively. 68Ga-PSMA-11 revealed 105 metastatic lymph nodes in 15 patients; the SUVmax was 16.85 ± 9.70 and 7.54 ± 5.20 in treatment-naïve PCa and mCRPC, respectively. 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT also newly detected visceral metastasis in 9 patients (22.5%) and bone metastasis in 29 patients (72.5%). 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT exhibits potential for staging and risk stratification in naïve PCa, as well as improved sensitivity for detection of lymph node and remote metastasis. PMID:28103574

Risk stratification and rapid geriatric screening in an emergency department - a quasi-randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Foo, Chik Loon; Siu, Vivan Wing Yin; Ang, Hou; Phuah, Madeline Wei Ling; Ooi, Chee Kheong

2014-08-30

To determine if risk stratification followed by rapid geriatric screening in an emergency department (ED) reduced functional decline, ED reattendance and hospitalisation. This was a quasi-randomised controlled trial. Patients were randomised by the last digit of their national registration identity card (NRIC). Odd number controls received standard ED care; even number patients received geriatric screening, followed by intervention and/or onward referrals. Patients were followed up for 12 months. There were 500 and 280 patients in the control and intervention groups. The intervention group had higher Triage Risk Screening Tool (TRST) scores (34.3% vs 25.4% TRST ≥3, p = 0.01) and lower baseline Instrumental Activity of Daily Living (IADL) scores (22.84 vs 24.18, p < 0.01). 82.9% of the intervention group had unmet needs; 62.1% accepted our interventions. Common positive findings were fall risk (65.0%), vision (61.4%), and footwear (58.2%). 28.2% were referred to a geriatric clinic and 11.8% were admitted. 425 (85.0%) controls and 234 (83.6%) in the intervention group completed their follow-up. After adjusting for TRST and baseline IADL, the intervention group had significant preservation in function (Basic ADL -0.99 vs -0.24, p < 0.01; IADL -2.57 vs +0.45, p < 0.01) at 12 months. The reduction in ED reattendance (OR0.75, CI 0.55-1.03, p = 0.07) and hospitalization (OR0.77, CI0.57-1.04, p = 0.09) were not significant, however the real difference would have been wider as 21.2% of the control group received geriatric screening at the request of the ED doctor. A major limitation was that a large proportion of patients who were randomized to the intervention group either refused (18.8%) or left the ED before being approached (32.0%). These two groups were not followed up, and hence were excluded in our analysis. Risk stratification and focused geriatric screening in ED resulted in significant preservation of patients' function at 12�

CMV-Specific T Cell Monitoring Offers Superior Risk Stratification of CMV-Seronegative Kidney Transplant Recipients of a CMV-Seropositive Donor.

PubMed

Schachtner, Thomas; Stein, Maik; Reinke, Petra

2017-10-01

Detectable cytomegalovirus (CMV)-specific T cells in CMV-seronegative kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) have been attributed to an absence of circulating antibodies despite CMV sensitization. The diagnostic value of CMV-specific T cells, however, needs to be implemented in risk stratification for CMV replication. Three hundred twenty-six KTRs were studied and classified with respect to CMV serostatus and presence of CMV-specific T cells. Samples were collected pretransplantation, at +1, +2, and +3 months posttransplantation. CMV-specific T cells directed to CMV-IE1 and CMV-pp65 were measured by interferon-γ Elispot assay. Nineteen (28%) of 67 D+R- KTRs showed pretransplant CMV-specific T cells. Although no differences were observed for CMV replication, KTRs with CMV-specific T cells presented with lower initial and peak CMV loads (P < 0.05). KTRs with decreasing/undetectable CMV-IE1-specific T cells pretransplantation and posttransplantation were at greatest risk of CMV replication. KTRs with stable/increasing CMV-IE1-specific T cells from pretransplantation to posttransplantation, however, showed low risk of CMV replication (P < 0.001). One hundred sixty-two (80%) of 203 R+ KTRs showed pretransplant CMV-specific T cells. Decreasing/undetectable CMV-IE1-specific T cells from pretransplantation and posttransplantation identified those R+ KTRs at increased risk of CMV replication (65/80 KTRs; 81%; P < 0.001). Despite CMV prophylaxis, D+R- KTRs are at greatest risk of CMV disease. Our data suggest that monitoring CMV-specific T cell kinetics from pretransplantation to posttransplantation, particularly directed to CMV-IE1, offers superior risk stratification compared with CMV serostatus alone.

Prenatal exposure to bisphenol A and risk of allergic diseases in early life.

PubMed

Zhou, Aifen; Chang, Huailong; Huo, Wenqian; Zhang, Bin; Hu, Jie; Xia, Wei; Chen, Zhong; Xiong, Chao; Zhang, Yaqi; Wang, Youjie; Xu, Shunqing; Li, Yuanyuan

2017-06-01

Prenatal exposure to bisphenol A (BPA) affects immune system and promotes allergy and asthma in mice, but findings in human studies are limited. We investigated whether prenatal exposure to BPA is associated with increased risk of allergic diseases in infants. We measured BPA concentrations in maternal urine samples collected at delivery from 412 women in Wuhan, China. The occurrence of allergic diseases including eczema and wheeze were assessed at age 6 mo through questionnaires. We used logistic regression to evaluate the association between urinary BPA levels and the risk of allergic diseases. Mothers of infants with allergic diseases had significantly higher urinary BPA levels than those of infants without allergic diseases (median: 2.35 vs. 4.55 µg/l, P = 0.03). Increased risk of infant allergic diseases was associated with creatinine-adjusted maternal urinary BPA concentrations. And this association was limited to females (odds ratio (OR) = 1.36; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-1.79) rather than males. After stratification by maternal age, the association was only significant in infants of mothers who were younger than 25 y old (OR = 1.90; 95% CI: 1.09-3.29). Prenatal exposure to BPA may potentially increase the risk of allergic diseases at very early life in female infants.

Baseline HbA1c to Identify High-Risk Gestational Diabetes: Utility in Early vs Standard Gestational Diabetes.

PubMed

Sweeting, Arianne N; Ross, Glynis P; Hyett, Jon; Molyneaux, Lynda; Tan, Kris; Constantino, Maria; Harding, Anna Jane; Wong, Jencia

2017-01-01

The increasing prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) necessitates risk stratification directing limited antenatal resources to those at greatest risk. Recent evidence demonstrates that an early pregnancy glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c ≥5.9% (41 mmol/mol) predicts adverse pregnancy outcomes. To determine the optimal HbA1c threshold for adverse pregnancy outcomes in GDM in a treated multiethnic cohort and whether this differs in women diagnosed <24 vs ≥24 weeks' gestation (early vs standard GDM). This was a retrospective cohort study undertaken at the Royal Prince Alfred Hospital Diabetes Antenatal Clinic, Australia, between 1991 and 2011. Pregnant women (N = 3098) underwent an HbA1c (single-laboratory) measurement at the time of GDM diagnosis. Maternal clinical and pregnancy outcome data were collected prospectively. The association between baseline HbA1c and adverse pregnancy outcomes in early vs standard GDM. HbA1c was measured at a median of 17.6 ± 3.3 weeks' gestation in early GDM (n = 844) and 29.4 ± 2.6 weeks' gestation in standard GDM (n = 2254). In standard GDM, HbA1c >5.9% (41 mmol/mol) was associated with the greatest risk of large-for-gestational-age (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] = 2.7 [1.5-4.9]), macrosomia (3.5 [1.4-8.6]), cesarean section (3.6 [2.1-6.2]), and hypertensive disorders (2.6 [1.1-5.8]). In early GDM, similar HbA1c associations were seen; however, lower HbA1c correlated with the greatest risk of small-for-gestational-age (P trend = 0.004) and prevalence of neonatal hypoglycemia. Baseline HbA1c >5.9% (41 mmol/mol) identifies an increased risk of large-for-gestational-age, macrosomia, cesarean section, and hypertensive disorders in standard GDM. Although similar associations are seen in early GDM, higher HbA1c levels do not adequately capture risk-limiting utility as a triage tool in this cohort. Copyright © 2017 by the Endocrine Society

Preventing tomorrow's sudden cardiac death today: part I: Current data on risk stratification for sudden cardiac death.

PubMed

Al-Khatib, Sana M; Sanders, Gillian D; Bigger, J Thomas; Buxton, Alfred E; Califf, Robert M; Carlson, Mark; Curtis, Anne; Curtis, Jeptha; Fain, Eric; Gersh, Bernard J; Gold, Michael R; Haghighi-Mood, Ali; Hammill, Stephen C; Healey, Jeff; Hlatky, Mark; Hohnloser, Stefan; Kim, Raymond J; Lee, Kerry; Mark, Daniel; Mianulli, Marcus; Mitchell, Brent; Prystowsky, Eric N; Smith, Joseph; Steinhaus, David; Zareba, Wojciech

2007-06-01

Accurate and timely prediction of sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a necessary prerequisite for effective prevention and therapy. Although the largest number of SCD events occurs in patients without overt heart disease, there are currently no tests that are of proven predictive value in this population. Efforts in risk stratification for SCD have focused primarily on predicting SCD in patients with known structural heart disease. Despite the ubiquity of tests that have been purported to predict SCD vulnerability in such patients, there is little consensus on which test, in addition to the left ventricular ejection fraction, should be used to determine which patients will benefit from an implantable cardioverter defibrillator. On July 20 and 21, 2006, a group of experts representing clinical cardiology, cardiac electrophysiology, biostatistics, economics, and health policy were joined by representatives of the US Food and Drug administration, Centers for Medicare Services, Agency for Health Research and Quality, the Heart Rhythm Society, and the device and pharmaceutical industry for a round table meeting to review current data on strategies of risk stratification for SCD, to explore methods to translate these strategies into practice and policy, and to identify areas that need to be addressed by future research studies. The meeting was organized by the Duke Center for the Prevention of SCD at the Duke Clinical Research Institute and was funded by industry participants. This article summarizes the presentations and discussions that occurred at that meeting.

Cardiac stress test as a risk-stratification tool for posttransplant cardiac outcomes in diabetic kidney transplant recipients.

PubMed

Singh, Neeraj; Parikh, Samir; Bhatt, Udayan; Vonvisger, Jon; Nori, Uday; Hasan, Ayesha; Samavedi, Srinivas; Andreoni, Kenneth; Henry, Mitchell; Pelletier, Ronald; Rajab, Amer; Elkhammas, Elmahdi; Pesavento, Todd

2012-12-27

The utility of cardiac stress testing as a risk-stratification tool before kidney transplantation remains debatable owing to discordance with coronary angiography and outcome yields at different centers. We conducted a retrospective study of 273 diabetic kidney transplant recipients from 2006 to 2010. By protocol, all diabetic patients underwent pharmacological radionucleotide stress test or dobutamine stress echocardiography before transplant. We compared the 1-year cardiac outcomes between those with negative stress test results and those with positive stress test results. Patients with a positive stress test result (n=67) underwent coronary angiogram, and significant coronary artery disease (≥70% coronary stenosis) was found in 35 (52.2%) patients. Of the latter, 32 (91.4%) underwent cardiac revascularization (24 underwent cardiac stenting and 8 underwent coronary artery bypass grafting). The rest (n=35) were treated medically. Within 1 year after transplant, the group with positive stress test results experienced more cardiac events (34.3% vs. 3.9%, P<0.001) including acute myocardial infarction (22.4% vs. 3.4%, P<0.001) and ventricular arrhythmias (8.9% vs. 0.05%, P=0.001), higher all-cause mortality (19.4% vs. 4.8%, P<0.001), and cardiac mortality (17.9% vs. 0.9%, P<0.001) compared with the group with negative stress test results. In this diabetic population, stress testing showed positive and negative predictive values of 34.3% and 96.1%, respectively. Pharmacological cardiac stress testing provided excellent risk stratification in diabetic kidney transplant recipients.

Indiana chronic disease management program risk stratification analysis.

PubMed

Li, Jingjin; Holmes, Ann M; Rosenman, Marc B; Katz, Barry P; Downs, Stephen M; Murray, Michael D; Ackermann, Ronald T; Inui, Thomas S

2005-10-01

The objective of this study was to compare the ability of risk stratification models derived from administrative data to classify groups of patients for enrollment in a tailored chronic disease management program. This study included 19,548 Medicaid patients with chronic heart failure or diabetes in the Indiana Medicaid data warehouse during 2001 and 2002. To predict costs (total claims paid) in FY 2002, we considered candidate predictor variables available in FY 2001, including patient characteristics, the number and type of prescription medications, laboratory tests, pharmacy charges, and utilization of primary, specialty, inpatient, emergency department, nursing home, and home health care. We built prospective models to identify patients with different levels of expenditure. Model fit was assessed using R statistics, whereas discrimination was assessed using the weighted kappa statistic, predictive ratios, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We found a simple least-squares regression model in which logged total charges in FY 2002 were regressed on the log of total charges in FY 2001, the number of prescriptions filled in FY 2001, and the FY 2001 eligibility category, performed as well as more complex models. This simple 3-parameter model had an R of 0.30 and, in terms in classification efficiency, had a sensitivity of 0.57, a specificity of 0.90, an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.80, and a weighted kappa statistic of 0.51. This simple model based on readily available administrative data stratified Medicaid members according to predicted future utilization as well as more complicated models.

Management of acute paracetamol (acetaminophen) toxicity: a standardised proforma improves risk assessment and overall risk stratification by emergency medicine doctors.

PubMed

McQuade, David J; Aknuri, Srikanth; Dargan, Paul I; Wood, David M

2012-12-01

Paracetamol (acetaminophen) poisoning is the most common toxicological presentation in the UK. Doctors managing patients with paracetamol poisoning need to assess the risk of their patient developing hepatotoxicity before determining appropriate treatment. Patients deemed to be at 'high risk' of hepatotoxicity have lower treatment thresholds than those deemed to be at 'normal risk'. Errors in this process can lead to harmful or potentially fatal under or over treatment. To determine how well treating doctors assess risk factor status and whether a standardised proforma is useful in the risk stratification process. Retrospective 12-month case note review of all patients presenting with paracetamol poisoning to our large inner-city emergency department. Data were collected on the documentation of risk factors, the presence of a local hospital proforma and treatment outcomes. 249 presentations were analysed and only 59 (23.7%) had full documentation of all the risk factors required to make a complete risk assessment. 56 of the 59 (94.9%) had the local hospital proforma included in the notes; the remaining 3 (5.1%) had full documentation of risk factors despite the absence of a proforma. A local hospital proforma was more likely to be included in the emergency department notes in those with 'adequate documentation' (78 out of 120 (65%)) than for those with 'inadequate documentation' (16 out of 129 (12.4%)); X(2), p<0.001. Despite a low overall uptake of the proforma, use of a standardised proforma significantly increased the likelihood of documentation of the risk factors which increase risk for hepatotoxicity following paracetamol poisoning.

Risk behaviours among early adolescents: risk and protective factors.

PubMed

Wang, Ruey-Hsia; Hsu, Hsiu-Yueh; Lin, Shu-Yuan; Cheng, Chung-Ping; Lee, Shu-Li

2010-02-01

This paper is a report of a study conducted to examine the influence of risk/protective factors on risk behaviours of early adolescents and whether protective factors moderate their impact. An understanding of how risk and protective factors operate to influence risk behaviours of early adolescents will better prepare nurses to perform interventions appropriately to reduce risk behaviours of early adolescents. A cross-sectional study was carried out, based on a sample of public junior high schools (from 7th to 9th grades) in one city and one county in Taiwan. An anonymous questionnaire designed to measure five risk factors, six protective factors and risk behaviours was administered from October 2006 to March 2007. Data from 878 students were used for the present analysis. Pearson's correlations, anova with random effect models, and generalized linear models were used to analyse the statistically significant explanatory variables for risk behaviours. Gender, perceived father's risk behaviour, perceived mother's risk behaviour, health self-efficacy, interaction of health self-efficacy and perceived peers' risk behaviour, and interaction of emotional regulation and perceived peers' risk behaviour were statistically significant explanatory variables of risk behaviours. Health self-efficacy and emotional regulation moderated the negative effects of peers' perceived risk behaviour on risk behaviours. All protective factors were negative statistically correlated with risk behaviours, and all risk factors positively statistically correlated with risk behaviours. Male adolescents should be considered an at-risk group for risk behaviour intervention. Nurses could provide early adolescents with training regarding health self-efficacy improvement, self-esteem enhancement, emotional regulation skills to reduce their risk behaviours.

Risk stratification of childhood cancer survivors necessary for evidence-based clinical long-term follow-up

PubMed Central

Frobisher, Clare; Glaser, Adam; Levitt, Gill A; Cutter, David J; Winter, David L; Lancashire, Emma R; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Guha, Joyeeta; Kelly, Julie; Reulen, Raoul C; Hawkins, Michael M

2017-01-01

Background: Reorganisation of clinical follow-up care in England was proposed by the National Cancer Survivorship Initiative (NCSI), based on cancer type and treatment, ranging from Level 1 (supported self-management) to Level 3 (consultant-led care). The objective of this study was to provide an investigation of the risks of serious adverse health-outcomes associated with NCSI Levels of clinical care using a large population-based cohort of childhood cancer survivors. Methods: The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (BCCSS) was used to investigate risks of specific causes of death, subsequent primary neoplasms (SPNs) and non-fatal non-neoplastic outcomes by NCSI Level. Results: Cumulative (excess) risks of specified adverse outcomes by 45 years from diagnosis among non-leukaemic survivors assigned to NCSI Levels 1, 2 and 3 were for: SPNs—5% (two-fold expected), 14% (four-fold expected) and 21% (eight-fold expected); non-neoplastic death—2% (two-fold expected), 4% (three-fold expected) and 8% (seven-fold expected); non-fatal non-neoplastic condition—14%, 27% and 40%, respectively. Consequently overall cumulative risks of any adverse health outcome were 21%, 45% and 69%, respectively. Conclusions: Despite its simplicity the risk stratification tool provides clear and strong discrimination between survivors assigned to different NCSI Levels in terms of long-term cumulative and excess risks of serious adverse outcomes. PMID:29065109

Emergency department management of syncope: need for standardization and improved risk stratification.

PubMed

Thiruganasambandamoorthy, Venkatesh; Taljaard, Monica; Stiell, Ian G; Sivilotti, Marco L A; Murray, Heather; Vaidyanathan, Aparna; Rowe, Brian H; Calder, Lisa A; Lang, Eddy; McRae, Andrew; Sheldon, Robert; Wells, George A

2015-08-01

Variations in emergency department (ED) syncope management have not been well studied. The goals of this study were to assess variations in management, and emergency physicians' risk perception and disposition decision making. We conducted a prospective study of adults with syncope in six EDs in four cities over 32 months. We collected patient characteristics, ED management, disposition, physicians' prediction probabilities at index presentation and followed patients for 30 days for serious outcomes: death, myocardial infarction (MI), arrhythmia, structural heart disease, pulmonary embolism, significant hemorrhage, or procedural interventions. We used descriptive statistics, ROC curves, and regression analyses. We enrolled 3662 patients: mean age 54.3 years, and 12.9 % were hospitalized. Follow-up data were available for 3365 patients (91.9 %) and 345 patients (10.3 %) suffered serious outcomes: 120 (3.6 %) after ED disposition including 48 patients outside the hospital. After accounting for differences in patient case mix, the rates of ED investigations and disposition were significantly different (p < 0.0001) across the four study cities; as were the rates of 30-day serious outcomes (p < 0.0001) and serious outcomes after ED disposition (p = 0.0227). There was poor agreement between physician risk perception and both observed event rates and referral patterns (p < 0.0001). Only 76.7 % (95 % CI 68.1-83.6) of patients with serious outcomes were appropriately referred. There are large and unexplained differences in ED syncope management. Moreover, there is poor agreement between physician risk perception, disposition decision making, and serious outcomes after ED disposition. A valid risk-stratification tool might help standardize ED management and improve disposition decision making.

Value of Donor–Specific Anti–HLA Antibody Monitoring and Characterization for Risk Stratification of Kidney Allograft Loss

PubMed Central

Viglietti, Denis; Loupy, Alexandre; Vernerey, Dewi; Bentlejewski, Carol; Gosset, Clément; Aubert, Olivier; Duong van Huyen, Jean-Paul; Jouven, Xavier; Legendre, Christophe; Glotz, Denis; Zeevi, Adriana

2017-01-01

The diagnosis system for allograft loss lacks accurate individual risk stratification on the basis of donor–specific anti–HLA antibody (anti-HLA DSA) characterization. We investigated whether systematic monitoring of DSA with extensive characterization increases performance in predicting kidney allograft loss. This prospective study included 851 kidney recipients transplanted between 2008 and 2010 who were systematically screened for DSA at transplant, 1 and 2 years post-transplant, and the time of post–transplant clinical events. We assessed DSA characteristics and performed systematic allograft biopsies at the time of post–transplant serum evaluation. At transplant, 110 (12.9%) patients had DSAs; post-transplant screening identified 186 (21.9%) DSA-positive patients. Post–transplant DSA monitoring improved the prediction of allograft loss when added to a model that included traditional determinants of allograft loss (increase in c statistic from 0.67; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.62 to 0.73 to 0.72; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.77). Addition of DSA IgG3 positivity or C1q binding capacity increased discrimination performance of the traditional model at transplant and post-transplant. Compared with DSA mean fluorescence intensity, DSA IgG3 positivity and C1q binding capacity adequately reclassified patients at lower or higher risk for allograft loss at transplant (category–free net reclassification index, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.67; P<0.001 and 0.93; 95% CI, 0.49 to 1.36; P<0.001, respectively) and post-transplant (category–free net reclassification index, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.62; P<0.001 and 0.95; 95% CI, 0.62 to 1.28; P<0.001, respectively). Thus, pre– and post–transplant DSA monitoring and characterization may improve individual risk stratification for kidney allograft loss. PMID:27493255

Early Educational Intervention, Early Cumulative Risk, and the Early Home Environment as Predictors of Young Adult Outcomes within a High-Risk Sample

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pungello, Elizabeth P.; Kainz, Kirsten; Burchinal, Margaret; Wasik, Barbara H.; Sparling, Joseph J.; Ramey, Craig T.; Campbell, Frances A.

2010-01-01

The extent to which early educational intervention, early cumulative risk, and the early home environment were associated with young adult outcomes was investigated in a sample of 139 young adults (age 21) from high-risk families enrolled in randomized trials of early intervention. Positive effects of treatment were found for education attainment,…

Early Educational Intervention, Early Cumulative Risk, and the Early Home Environment as Predictors of Young Adult Outcomes Within a High-Risk Sample

PubMed Central

Pungello, Elizabeth P.; Kainz, Kirsten; Burchinal, Margaret; Wasik, Barbara H.; Sparling, Joseph J.; Ramey, Craig T.; Campbell, Frances A.

2009-01-01

The extent to which early educational intervention, early cumulative risk, and the early home environment were associated with young adult outcomes was investigated in a sample of 139 young adults (age 21) from high-risk families enrolled in randomized trials of early intervention. Positive effects of treatment were found for education attainment, attending college, and skilled employment; negative effects of risk were found for education attainment, graduating high school, being employed and avoiding teen parenthood. The home mediated the effects of risk for graduating high school, but not being employed or teen parenthood. Evidence for moderated mediation was found for educational attainment; the home mediated the association between risk and educational attainment for the control group, but not the treated group. PMID:20331676

A clinical study of ischaemic strokes with micro-albuminuria for risk stratification, short-term predictive value and outcome.

PubMed

Das, Sukdeb; Yadav, Ujjal; Ghosh, Kartik Chandra; Panchadhyayee, Sujoy; Kundu, Shib Shankar; Ganguly, Prasanta Kumar

2012-12-01

Stroke results more than 4.3 million deaths worldwide per annum and 85% of all strokes are ischaemic in nature. Besides numerous modifiable and non-modifiable known risk factors, microalbuminuria is thought to be an important marker of global endothelial dysfunction and associated with cardiovascular disease including stroke. Fifty ischaemic stroke cases and 50 (age, sex matched) control subjects were subjected to study to compare and evaluate risk stratification of micro-albuminuria, its predictive value and outcome on day 1 and day 7 among admitted ischaemic stroke cases.The result was found that micro-albuminuria was present in 66% of ischaemic stroke cases compared to only 8% of control group (p < 0.001). Most validated National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score was used for evaluation and calculation of predictive value and outcome of micro-albuminuria positive patient where higher value indicates poor prognosis, and the result was mean NIHSS score 29.12 versus 18.88 between two groups of strokes ie, with and without micro-albuminuria. Out of 50 ischaemic stroke patients 33 (66%) had micro-albuminuria. Among 11 patients who died, 10 (90.9%) had micro-albuminuria and NIHSS score was 33.64 and 25.0 on day 1 and day 7. Among 39 patients who were discharged, 23 patients (58.97%) were MA positive and NIHSS score was much less than death group ie, 23.38 and 16.38 on day 1 and day 7 respectively. So this study reveals micro-albuminuria itself results higher risk for ischaemic stroke compared to control group and it shows good predictive value for early assessment of clinical severity and subsequent fatal outcome. This is also simple, cost effective and affordable.

Factors Influencing the Clinical Stratification of Suitability to Drive after Stroke: A Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Stapleton, Tadhg; Connolly, Deirdre; O'Neill, Desmond

2015-01-01

While a clinical pre-selection screening process for a stroke patient's suitability for driving has been acknowledged, little is known about the factors or processes influencing this screening typically conducted by clinicians practicing at a generalist level. This study explored this clinical stratification process through the use of semi-structured interviews with senior occupational therapists (n = 17) and stroke physicians (n = 7) using qualitative description methodology. The findings revealed a trichotomy stratification of stroke patients for driving in the clinical setting; those who are fit to drive, unfit to drive, and a "maybe" group who need more detailed assessment and observation. Factors that had a major influence on this clinical-based stratification of driving suitability were client's levels of awareness, insight, and impulsivity. A period of prolonged contact with the client was preferential to guide the stratification decision in order for clinicians to build a comprehensive picture of the person. A mix of assessment approaches including standardized assessment but with increased emphasis on naturalistic observation of functional performance underpinned the clinical stratification process. This study uncovers some of the factors and processes influencing the early clinical-based stratification of driving suitability after stroke, and highlights the contribution of the generalist practitioner in the assessment of fitness to drive continuum.

Risk stratification and rapid geriatric screening in an emergency department – a quasi-randomised controlled trial

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background To determine if risk stratification followed by rapid geriatric screening in an emergency department (ED) reduced functional decline, ED reattendance and hospitalisation. Method This was a quasi-randomised controlled trial. Patients were randomised by the last digit of their national registration identity card (NRIC). Odd number controls received standard ED care; even number patients received geriatric screening, followed by intervention and/or onward referrals. Patients were followed up for 12 months. Results There were 500 and 280 patients in the control and intervention groups. The intervention group had higher Triage Risk Screening Tool (TRST) scores (34.3% vs 25.4% TRST ≥3, p = 0.01) and lower baseline Instrumental Activity of Daily Living (IADL) scores (22.84 vs 24.18, p < 0.01). 82.9% of the intervention group had unmet needs; 62.1% accepted our interventions. Common positive findings were fall risk (65.0%), vision (61.4%), and footwear (58.2%). 28.2% were referred to a geriatric clinic and 11.8% were admitted. 425 (85.0%) controls and 234 (83.6%) in the intervention group completed their follow-up. After adjusting for TRST and baseline IADL, the intervention group had significant preservation in function (Basic ADL -0.99 vs -0.24, p < 0.01; IADL -2.57 vs +0.45, p < 0.01) at 12 months. The reduction in ED reattendance (OR0.75, CI 0.55-1.03, p = 0.07) and hospitalization (OR0.77, CI0.57-1.04, p = 0.09) were not significant, however the real difference would have been wider as 21.2% of the control group received geriatric screening at the request of the ED doctor. A major limitation was that a large proportion of patients who were randomized to the intervention group either refused (18.8%) or left the ED before being approached (32.0%). These two groups were not followed up, and hence were excluded in our analysis. Conclusion Risk stratification and focused geriatric screening in ED resulted in significant preservation

Surveillance of Pediatric Cardiac Surgical Outcome Using Risk Stratifications at a Tertiary Care Center in Thailand

PubMed Central

Vijarnsorn, Chodchanok; Laohaprasitiporn, Duangmanee; Durongpisitkul, Kritvikrom; Chantong, Prakul; Soongswang, Jarupim; Cheungsomprasong, Paweena; Nana, Apichart; Sriyoschati, Somchai; Subtaweesin, Thawon; Thongcharoen, Punnarerk; Prakanrattana, Ungkab; Krobprachya, Jiraporn; Pooliam, Julaporn

2011-01-01

Objectives. To determine in-hospital mortality and complications of cardiac surgery in pediatric patients and identify predictors of hospital mortality. Methods. Records of pediatric patients who had undergone cardiac surgery in 2005 were reviewed retrospectively. The risk adjustment for congenital heart surgery (RACHS-1) method, the Aristotle basic complexity score (ABC score), and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons and the European Association for Cardiothoracic Surgery Mortality score (STS-EACTS score) were used as measures. Potential predictors were analyzed by risk analysis. Results. 230 pediatric patients had undergone congenital cardiac surgery. Overall, the mortality discharge was 6.1%. From the ROC curve of the RACHS-1, the ABC level, and the STS-EACTS categories, the validities were determined to be 0.78, 0.74, and 0.67, respectively. Mortality risks were found at the high complexity levels of the three tools, bypass time >85 min, and cross clamp time >60 min. Common morbidities were postoperative pyrexia, bleeding, and pleural effusion. Conclusions. Overall mortality and morbidities were 6.1%. The RACHS-1 method, ABC score, and STS-EACTS score were helpful for risk stratification. PMID:21738856

Risk-stratification, resource availability, and choice of surgical location for the management of parturients with abnormal placentation: a survey of United States-based obstetric anesthesiologists.

PubMed

Grant, T R; Ellinas, E H; Kula, A O; Muravyeva, M Y

2018-05-01

Parturients with abnormally adherent placentas present anesthetic challenges that include risk-stratification, management planning and resource utilization. The labor and delivery unit may be remote from the main operating room services. Division chiefs of North American obstetric anesthesiology services were surveyed about their practices and management of parturients with an abnormally adherent placenta. Eighty-four of 122 chiefs, representing 103 hospital sites, responded to the survey (response rate 69%). Sixty-one percent of respondents agreed that women with preoperative placental imaging that was "suspicious" of placenta accreta represented a lower risk category; all other suggested descriptions fell into a higher risk category. Seventy-nine percent of respondents indicated that lower risk cases were managed on the labor and delivery unit, while 71% indicated that higher risk cases would be managed in the main operating room. Institutions where all cases were managed on the labor and delivery unit had better access to human and technical resources, were less remote from their main operating areas, and promoted neuraxial rather than general anesthesia, even for parturients perceived to be at higher risk. Obstetric anesthesia leaders identified patients at lower clinical risk and those less likely to require greater resources. Additional resources were available in institutions where all abnormal placentation cases were managed on the labor and delivery unit. Practitioners should consider risk-stratification and resource availability when planning high-risk cases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Migration and stratification

PubMed Central

Jasso, Guillermina

2011-01-01

Migration and stratification are increasingly intertwined. One day soon it will be impossible to understand one without the other. Both focus on life chances. Stratification is about differential life chances - who gets what and why - and migration is about improving life chances - getting more of the good things of life. To examine the interconnections of migration and stratification, we address a mix of old and new questions, carrying out analyses newly enabled by a unique new data set on recent legal immigrants to the United States (the New Immigrant Survey). We look at immigrant processing and lost documents, depression due to the visa process, presentation of self, the race-ethnic composition of an immigrant cohort (made possible by the data for the first time since 1961), black immigration from Africa and the Americas, skin-color diversity among couples formed by U.S. citizen sponsors and immigrant spouses, and English fluency among children age 8–12 and their immigrant parents. We find, inter alia, that children of previously illegal parents are especially more likely to be fluent in English, that native-born U.S. citizen women tend to marry darker, that immigrant applicants who go through the visa process while already in the United States are more likely to have their documents lost and to suffer visa depression, and that immigration, by introducing accomplished black immigrants from Africa (notably via the visa lottery), threatens to overturn racial and skin color associations with skill. Our analyses show the mutual embeddedness of migration and stratification in the unfolding of the immigrants' and their children's life chances and the impacts on the stratification structure of the United States. PMID:26321771

Cloning of the first human anti-JCPyV/VP1 neutralizing monoclonal antibody: epitope definition and implications in risk stratification of patients under natalizumab therapy.

PubMed

Diotti, Roberta Antonia; Mancini, Nicasio; Clementi, Nicola; Sautto, Giuseppe; Moreno, Guisella Janett; Criscuolo, Elena; Cappelletti, Francesca; Man, Petr; Forest, Eric; Remy, Louise; Giannecchini, Simone; Clementi, Massimo; Burioni, Roberto

2014-08-01

JC virus (JCPyV) has gained novel clinical importance as cause of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a rare demyelinating disease recently associated to immunomodulatory drugs, such as natalizumab used in multiple sclerosis (MS) cases. Little is known about the mechanisms leading to PML, and this makes the need of PML risk stratification among natalizumab-treated patients very compelling. Clinical and laboratory-based risk-stratification markers have been proposed, one of these is represented by the JCPyV-seropositive status, which includes about 54% of MS patients. We recently proposed to investigate the possible protective role of neutralizing humoral immune response in preventing JCPyV reactivation. In this proof-of-concept study, by cloning the first human monoclonal antibody (GRE1) directed against a neutralizing epitope on JCPyV/VP1, we optimized a robust anti-JCPyV neutralization assay. This allowed us to evaluate the neutralizing activity in JCPyV-positive sera from MS patients, demonstrating the lack of correlation between the level of anti-JCPyV antibody and anti-JCPyV neutralizing activity. Relevant consequences may derive from future clinical studies induced by these findings; indeed the study of the serum anti-JCPyV neutralizing activity could allow not only a better risk stratification of the patients during natalizumab treatment, but also a better understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms leading to PML, highlighting the contribution of peripheral versus central nervous system JCPyV reactivation. Noteworthy, the availability of GRE1 could allow the design of novel immunoprophylactic strategies during the immunomodulatory treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Applying Latent Class Analysis to Risk Stratification for Perioperative Mortality in Patients Undergoing Intraabdominal General Surgery.

PubMed

Kim, Minjae; Wall, Melanie M; Li, Guohua

2016-07-01

Perioperative risk stratification is often performed using individual risk factors without consideration of the syndemic of these risk factors. We used latent class analysis (LCA) to identify the classes of comorbidities and risk factors associated with perioperative mortality in patients presenting for intraabdominal general surgery. The 2005 to 2010 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to obtain a cohort of patients undergoing intraabdominal general surgery. Risk factors and comorbidities were entered into LCA models to identify the latent classes, and individuals were assigned to a class based on the highest posterior probability of class membership. Relative risk regression was used to determine the associations between the latent classes and 30-day mortality, with adjustments for procedure. A 9-class model was fit using LCA on 466,177 observations. After combining classes with similar adjusted mortality risks, 5 risk classes were obtained. Compared with the class with average mortality risk (class 4), the risk ratios (95% confidence interval) ranged from 0.020 (0.014-0.027) in the lowest risk class (class 1) to 6.75 (6.46-7.02) in the highest risk class. After adjusting for procedure and ASA physical status, the latent classes remained significantly associated with 30-day mortality. The addition of the risk class variable to a model containing ASA physical status and surgical procedure demonstrated a significant increase in the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (0.892 vs 0.915; P < 0.0001). Latent classes of risk factors and comorbidities in patients undergoing intraabdominal surgery are predictive of 30-day mortality independent of the ASA physical status and improve risk prediction with the ASA physical status.

The risk stratification and prognostic evaluation of soluble programmed death-1 on patients with sepsis in emergency department.

PubMed

Zhao, Yongzhen; Jia, Yumei; Li, Chunsheng; Fang, Yingying; Shao, Rui

2018-01-01

To evaluate the efficacy of soluble programmed death-1 (sPD-1) for risk stratification and prediction of 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis, we compared serum sPD-1 with procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), and the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score. A total of 60 healthy volunteers and 595 emergency department (ED) patients were recruited for this prospective cohort study. According to the severity of their condition on ED arrival, the patients were allocated to the systemic inflammatory response syndrome group (130 cases), sepsis group (276 cases), severe sepsis group (121 cases), and septic shock group (68 cases). In addition, all patients with sepsis were also divided into the survivor group (349 cases) and nonsurvivor group (116 cases) according to the 28-day outcomes. When the severity of sepsis increased, the levels of sPD-1 gradually increased. The levels of sPD-1, PCT, CRP and the MEDS score were also higher in the nonsurvivor group compared to the survivor group. Logistic regression suggested that sPD-1, PCT, and the MEDS score were independent risk factors for 28-day mortality of patients with sepsis. Area under the curve (AUC) of sPD-1, PCT and the MEDS score for 28-day mortality was 0.725, 0.693, and 0.767, respectively, and the AUC was improved when all 3 factors were combined (0.843). Serum sPD-1 is positively correlated with the severity of sepsis, and it is valuable for risk stratification of patients and prediction of 28-day mortality. Combining sPD-1 with PCT and the MEDS score improves the prognostic evaluation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

BAYESIAN BICLUSTERING FOR PATIENT STRATIFICATION.

PubMed

Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Ester, Martin

2016-01-01

The move from Empirical Medicine towards Personalized Medicine has attracted attention to Stratified Medicine (SM). Some methods are provided in the literature for patient stratification, which is the central task of SM, however, there are still significant open issues. First, it is still unclear if integrating different datatypes will help in detecting disease subtypes more accurately, and, if not, which datatype(s) are most useful for this task. Second, it is not clear how we can compare different methods of patient stratification. Third, as most of the proposed stratification methods are deterministic, there is a need for investigating the potential benefits of applying probabilistic methods. To address these issues, we introduce a novel integrative Bayesian biclustering method, called B2PS, for patient stratification and propose methods for evaluating the results. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of B2PS over a popular state-of-the-art method and the benefits of Bayesian approaches. Our results agree with the intuition that transcriptomic data forms a better basis for patient stratification than genomic data.

[Exercise stress test and dobutamine stress echocardiography for the prognostic stratification after uncomplicated acute myocardial infarction].

PubMed

Vitiello, Nicola; Cirillo, Raffaele; Granato, Luigi; Coppola, Vincenzo; di Palma, Francesco

2007-05-01

Exercise stress test and dobutamine stress echocardiography are usually performed early after an uncomplicated acute myocardial infarction in the prognostic stratification of patients to define the optimal diagnostic and therapeutic procedure. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the association of an imaging test could increase exercise test capability to identify patients with residual ischemia and patients at high risk of events in the follow-up. Four hundred and forty-two consecutive patients underwent exercise stress testing and dobutamine stress echocardiography before discharge and subsequently coronary angiography within 30 days. In case of submaximal negative result at the exercise test, this was repeated 20 days after discharge. The follow-up lasted 26.8 +/- 9 months. The endpoints were death, reinfarction, and unstable angina requiring hospitalization or revascularization intervention. Both tests and their association showed a higher sensitivity in males; in females dobutamine stress echocardiography had a higher specificity. In females, the addition of dobutamine stress echocardiography increased either the negative or the positive prognostic values of exercise stress test by 31% and 5.6%, respectively. In males, the negative prognostic value increased by 15.5%, whereas the positive prognostic value decreased by 12%. A low exercise capability (<6 METs) showed an event predictive value independent of test results and any other variables. The event-free survival curves correlated with exercise capability differed shortly after the first months both in males and females. These results suggest different stratification procedures with regard to gender: in males, the exercise stress test might be sufficient at discharge, to be repeated 20 days later, if submaximal negative. In females, it seems to be useful to associate an imaging test at discharge. In any case, the exercise stress test remains the main step in the stratification procedure also for its

Actionable Intelligence about Early Childhood Risks in Philadelphia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LeBoeuf, Whitney A.; Barghaus, Katherine; Fantuzzo, John; Coe, Kristen; Brumley, Benjamin

2016-01-01

"Early childhood risks" are markers of early childhood experiences that extensive research has shown to be detrimental to later academic and behavioral outcomes. In Philadelphia, evidence indicates that seven early childhood risks tracked by public agencies have negative effects on early school outcomes. These risks include low…

Correction of Population Stratification in Large Multi-Ethnic Association Studies

PubMed Central

Serre, David; Montpetit, Alexandre; Paré, Guillaume; Engert, James C.; Yusuf, Salim; Keavney, Bernard; Hudson, Thomas J.; Anand, Sonia

2008-01-01

Background The vast majority of genetic risk factors for complex diseases have, taken individually, a small effect on the end phenotype. Population-based association studies therefore need very large sample sizes to detect significant differences between affected and non-affected individuals. Including thousands of affected individuals in a study requires recruitment in numerous centers, possibly from different geographic regions. Unfortunately such a recruitment strategy is likely to complicate the study design and to generate concerns regarding population stratification. Methodology/Principal Findings We analyzed 9,751 individuals representing three main ethnic groups - Europeans, Arabs and South Asians - that had been enrolled from 154 centers involving 52 countries for a global case/control study of acute myocardial infarction. All individuals were genotyped at 103 candidate genes using 1,536 SNPs selected with a tagging strategy that captures most of the genetic diversity in different populations. We show that relying solely on self-reported ethnicity is not sufficient to exclude population stratification and we present additional methods to identify and correct for stratification. Conclusions/Significance Our results highlight the importance of carefully addressing population stratification and of carefully “cleaning” the sample prior to analyses to obtain stronger signals of association and to avoid spurious results. PMID:18196181

A score model to predict risk of events in patients with Brugada Syndrome.

PubMed

Sieira, Juan; Conte, Giulio; Ciconte, Giuseppe; Chierchia, Gian-Battista; Casado-Arroyo, Ruben; Baltogiannis, Giannis; Di Giovanni, Giacomo; Saitoh, Yukio; Juliá, Justo; Mugnai, Giacomo; La Meir, Mark; Wellens, Francis; Czapla, Jens; Pappaert, Gudrun; de Asmundis, Carlo; Brugada, Pedro

2017-06-07

Risk stratification in Brugada Syndrome (BS) remains challenging. Arrhythmic events can occur life-long and studies with long follow-ups are sparse. The aim of our study was to investigate long-term prognosis and risk stratification of BS patients. A single centre consecutive cohort of 400 BS patients was included and analysed. Mean age was 41.1 years, 78 patients (19.5%) had a spontaneous type I electrocardiogram (ECG). Clinical presentation was aborted sudden cardiac death (SCD) in 20 patients (5.0%), syncope in 111 (27.8%) and asymptomatic in 269 (67.3%). Familial antecedents of SCD were found in 184 individuals (46.0%), in 31 (7.8%) occurred in first-degree relatives younger than 35 years. An implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) was placed in 176 (44.0%). During a mean follow-up of 80.7 months, 34 arrhythmic events occurred (event rate: 1.4% year). Variables significantly associated to events were: presentation as aborted SCD (Hazard risk [HR] 20.0), syncope (HR 3.7), spontaneous type I (HR 2.7), male gender (HR 2.7), early SCD in first-degree relatives (HR 2.9), SND (HR 5.0), inducible VA (HR 4.7) and proband status (HR 2.1). A score including ECG pattern, early familial SCD antecedents, inducible electrophysiological study, presentation as syncope or as aborted SCD and SND had a predictive performance of 0.82. A score greater than 2 conferred a 5-year event probability of 9.2%. BS patients remain at risk many years after diagnosis. Early SCD in first-degree relatives and SND are risk factors for arrhythmic events. A simple risk score might help in the stratification and management of BS patients. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2017. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Implications of delayed bone marrow aspirations at the end of treatment induction for risk stratification and outcome in children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

PubMed

Zuna, Jan; Moericke, Anja; Arens, Mari; Koehler, Rolf; Panzer-Grümayer, Renate; Bartram, Claus R; Fischer, Susanna; Fronkova, Eva; Zaliova, Marketa; Schrauder, André; Stanulla, Martin; Zimmermann, Martin; Trka, Jan; Stary, Jan; Attarbaschi, Andishe; Mann, Georg; Schrappe, Martin; Cario, Gunnar

2016-06-01

Minimal residual disease (MRD) at the end of induction therapy is important for risk stratification of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), but bone marrow (BM) aspiration is often postponed or must be repeated to fulfil qualitative and quantitative criteria for morphological assessment of haematological remission and/or MRD analysis. The impact of BM aspiration delay on measured MRD levels and resulting risk stratification is currently unknown. We analysed paired MRD data of 289 paediatric ALL patients requiring a repeat BM aspiration. MRD levels differed in 108 patients (37%) with a decrease in the majority (85/108). This would have resulted in different risk group allocation in 64 of 289 patients (23%) when applying the ALL-Berlin-Frankfurt-Münster 2000 criteria. MRD change was associated with the duration of delay; 40% of patients with delay ≥7 days had a shift to lower MRD levels compared to only 18% after a shorter delay. Patients MRD-positive at the original but MRD-negative at the repeat BM aspiration (n = 50) had a worse 5-year event-free survival than those already negative at first aspiration (n = 115) (86 ± 5% vs. 94 ± 2%; P = 0·024). We conclude that BM aspirations should be pursued as scheduled in the protocol because delayed MRD sampling at end of induction may result in false-low MRD load and distort MRD-based risk assessment. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Pretreatment risk stratification of feeding tube use in patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy for head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Anderson, Nigel J; Jackson, James E; Smith, Jennifer G; Wada, Morikatsu; Schneider, Michal; Poulsen, Michael; Rolfo, Maureen; Fahandej, Maziar; Gan, Hui; Joon, Daryl Lim; Khoo, Vincent

2018-05-13

The purpose of this study was to establish a risk stratification model for feeding tube use in patients who undergo intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for head and neck cancers. One hundred thirty-nine patients treated with definitive IMRT (+/- concurrent chemotherapy) for head and neck mucosal cancers were included in this study. Patients were recommended a prophylactic feeding tube and followed up by a dietician for at least 8 weeks postradiotherapy (post-RT). Potential prognostic factors were analyzed for risk and duration of feeding tube use for at least 25% of dietary requirements. Many variables had significant effects on risk and/or duration of feeding tube use in univariate analyses. Subsequent multivariable analysis showed that T classification ≥3 and level 2 lymphadenopathy were the best independent significant predictors of higher risk and duration of feeding tube use, respectively, in oral cavity, pharyngeal, and supraglottic primaries. In patients treated with definitive IMRT, T classification ≥3 and level 2 lymphadenopathy can potentially stratify patients into 4 risk groups for developing severe dysphagia requiring feeding tube use. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dynamic Risk Stratification in Stage I Papillary Thyroid Cancer Patients Younger Than 45 Years of Age.

PubMed

Sung, Tae-Yon; Cho, Jae Won; Lee, Yu-Mi; Lee, Yi Ho; Kwon, Hyemi; Jeon, Min Ji; Kim, Won Gu; Choi, Young Jun; Song, Dong Eun; Chung, Ki-Wook; Yoon, Jong Ho; Hong, Suck Joon

2017-11-01

This study validated the dynamic risk stratification (DRS) system with regard to its association with structural recurrence and risk factors associated with non-excellent responses in patients <45 years with stage I classical papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). This historical cohort study included 598 patients with stage I classical PTC <45 years of age treated with total thyroidectomy followed by radioactive iodine remnant ablation (n = 440), total thyroidectomy without radioactive iodine remnant ablation (n = 23), and thyroid lobectomy alone (n = 135). The median follow-up period was 123 months. Structural recurrence occurred in 4.2% (n = 18/432) of the patients with an excellent response, 17.1% (18/105) of patients with an indeterminate response, 44.7% (17/38) of patients with a biochemically incomplete response, and 82.6% (19/23) of patients with a structurally incomplete response (p < 0.001) during the follow-up. The disease-free survival curves of each response showed significant differences (p < 0.001). Extensive extrathyroidal extension and extranodal extension were the independent risk factors associated with non-excellent response (p < 0.05). DRS may reduce unnecessary additional treatments by reclassifying initial risk estimates of structural recurrence. Furthermore, applying the risk factors associated with non-excellent response to initial therapy may be a more useful and viable surrogate of the risk for structural recurrence in stage I PTC patients <45 years of age.

Rainfall as a trigger for stratification and winter phytoplankton growth in temperate shelf seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jardine, Jenny; Palmer, Matthew; Mahaffey, Claire; Holt, Jason; Mellor, Adam; Wakelin, Sarah

2017-04-01

We present new data from ocean gliders to investigate physical controls on stratification and phytoplankton dynamics, collected in the Celtic Sea between November 2014 and August 2015 as part of the UK Shelf Sea Biogeochemistry programme. This presentation focuses on the winter period (Jan-March) when the diurnal heating cycle results in regular but weak near surface stratification followed by night-time convection. Despite low light conditions, this daily cycle often promotes a daytime increase in observed chlorophyll fluorescence, indicative of phytoplankton growth. This daily cycle is occasionally interrupted when buoyancy inputs are sufficient to outcompete night-time convection and result in short-term periods of sustained winter stratification, typically lasting 2-3 days. Sustained stratification often coincides with periods of heavy rainfall, suggesting freshwater input from precipitation may play a role on these events by producing a subtle yet significant freshening of the surface layer of the order of 0.005 PSU. Comparing rainfall estimates with observed salinity changes confirms rainfall to often be the initiator of these winter stratification periods. As winter winds subside and solar heating increases towards spring, the water column becomes more susceptible to periods of halo-stratification, such that heavy rainfall during the winter-spring transition is likely to promote sustained stratification. The timing and extent of a heavy rainfall event in March 2015 does suggest it may be the critical trigger for shelf-wide stratification that eventually instigates the spring bloom. We propose that the timing of these downpours relative to the daily heating cycle can be a triggering mechanism for both short term and seasonal stratification in shelf seas, and so play a critical role in winter and early spring phytoplankton growth and the shelf sea carbon cycle. We further test the importance of this process using historical data, and results from the NEMO-AMM7

Diagnostic performance of an acoustic-based system for coronary artery disease risk stratification.

PubMed

Winther, Simon; Nissen, Louise; Schmidt, Samuel Emil; Westra, Jelmer Sybren; Rasmussen, Laust Dupont; Knudsen, Lars Lyhne; Madsen, Lene Helleskov; Kirk Johansen, Jane; Larsen, Bjarke Skogstad; Struijk, Johannes Jan; Frost, Lars; Holm, Niels Ramsing; Christiansen, Evald Høj; Botker, Hans Erik; Bøttcher, Morten

2018-06-01

Diagnosing coronary artery disease (CAD) continues to require substantial healthcare resources. Acoustic analysis of transcutaneous heart sounds of cardiac movement and intracoronary turbulence due to obstructive coronary disease could potentially change this. The aim of this study was thus to test the diagnostic accuracy of a new portable acoustic device for detection of CAD. We included 1675 patients consecutively with low to intermediate likelihood of CAD who had been referred for cardiac CT angiography. If significant obstruction was suspected in any coronary segment, patients were referred to invasive angiography and fractional flow reserve (FFR) assessment. Heart sound analysis was performed in all patients. A predefined acoustic CAD-score algorithm was evaluated; subsequently, we developed and validated an updated CAD-score algorithm that included both acoustic features and clinical risk factors. Low risk is indicated by a CAD-score value ≤20. Haemodynamically significant CAD assessed from FFR was present in 145 (10.0%) patients. In the entire cohort, the predefined CAD-score had a sensitivity of 63% and a specificity of 44%. In total, 50% had an updated CAD-score value ≤20. At this cut-off, sensitivity was 81% (95% CI 73% to 87%), specificity 53% (95% CI 50% to 56%), positive predictive value 16% (95% CI 13% to 18%) and negative predictive value 96% (95% CI 95% to 98%) for diagnosing haemodynamically significant CAD. Sound-based detection of CAD enables risk stratification superior to clinical risk scores. With a negative predictive value of 96%, this new acoustic rule-out system could potentially supplement clinical assessment to guide decisions on the need for further diagnostic investigation. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02264717; Results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

From Statistical Significance to Clinical Relevance: A Simple Algorithm to Integrate BNP and the Seattle Heart Failure Model for Risk Stratification in Heart Failure

PubMed Central

AbouEzzeddine, Omar F.; French, Benjamin; Mirzoyev, Sultan A.; Jaffe, Allan S; Levy, Wayne C.; Fang, James C.; Sweitzer, Nancy K.; Cappola, Thomas P.; Redfield, Margaret M.

2016-01-01

Background Heart failure (HF) guidelines recommend brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and multivariable risk-scores such as the Seattle HF Model (SHFM) to predict risk in HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). A practical way to integrate information from these two prognostic tools is lacking. We sought to establish a SHFM+BNP risk-stratification algorithm. Methods The retrospective derivation cohort included consecutive patients with HFrEF at Mayo. One-year outcome (death, transplantation or ventricular assist device) was assessed. The SHFM+BNP algorithm was derived by stratifying patients within SHFM-predicted risk categories (≤2.5%, 2.6–≤10%, >10%) according to BNP above or below 700 pg/mL and comparing SHFM-predicted and observed event rates within each SHFM+BNP category. The algorithm was validated in a prospective, multicenter HFrEF registry (Penn HF Study). Results Derivation (n=441; one-year event rate 17%) and validation (n=1513; one-year event rate 12%) cohorts differed with the former being older and more likely ischemic with worse symptoms, lower EF, worse renal function, higher BNP and SHFM scores. In both cohorts, across the three SHFM-predicted risk strata, a BNP>700 pg/ml consistently identified patients with approximately three-fold the risk that the SHFM would have otherwise estimated regardless stage of HF, intensity and duration of HF-therapy, and comorbidities. Conversely, the SHFM was appropriately calibrated in patients with a BNP<700 pg/ml. Conclusion The simple SHFM+BNP algorithm displays stable performance across diverse HFrEF cohorts and may enhance risk stratification to enable appropriate decisions regarding HF therapeutic or palliative strategies. PMID:27021278

Proposal for a new risk stratification classification for meningioma based on patient age, WHO tumor grade, size, localization, and karyotype

PubMed Central

Domingues, Patrícia Henriques; Sousa, Pablo; Otero, Álvaro; Gonçalves, Jesus Maria; Ruiz, Laura; de Oliveira, Catarina; Lopes, Maria Celeste; Orfao, Alberto; Tabernero, Maria Dolores

2014-01-01

Background Tumor recurrence remains the major clinical complication of meningiomas, the majority of recurrences occurring among WHO grade I/benign tumors. In the present study, we propose a new scoring system for the prognostic stratification of meningioma patients based on analysis of a large series of meningiomas followed for a median of >5 years. Methods Tumor cytogenetics were systematically investigated by interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization in 302 meningioma samples, and the proposed classification was further validated in an independent series of cases (n = 132) analyzed by high-density (500K) single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays. Results Overall, we found an adverse impact on patient relapse-free survival (RFS) for males, presence of brain edema, younger patients (<55 years), tumor size >50 mm, tumor localization at intraventricular and anterior cranial base areas, WHO grade II/III meningiomas, and complex karyotypes; the latter 5 variables showed an independent predictive value in multivariate analysis. Based on these parameters, a prognostic score was established for each individual case, and patients were stratified into 4 risk categories with significantly different (P < .001) outcomes. These included a good prognosis group, consisting of approximately 20% of cases, that showed a RFS of 100% ± 0% at 10 years and a very poor-prognosis group with a RFS rate of 0% ± 0% at 10 years. The prognostic impact of the scoring system proposed here was also retained when WHO grade I cases were considered separately (P < .001). Conclusions Based on this risk-stratification classification, different strategies may be adopted for follow-up, and eventually also for treatment, of meningioma patients at different risks for relapse. PMID:24536048

Doppler Endoscopic Probe Monitoring of Blood Flow Improves Risk Stratification and Outcomes of Patients With Severe Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Jensen, Dennis M; Kovacs, Thomas O G; Ohning, Gordon V; Ghassemi, Kevin; Machicado, Gustavo A; Dulai, Gareth S; Sedarat, Alireza; Jutabha, Rome; Gornbein, Jeffrey

2017-05-01

For 4 decades, stigmata of recent hemorrhage in patients with nonvariceal lesions have been used for risk stratification and endoscopic hemostasis. The arterial blood flow that underlies the stigmata rarely is monitored, but can be used to determine risk for rebleeding. We performed a randomized controlled trial to determine whether Doppler endoscopic probe monitoring of blood flow improves risk stratification and outcomes in patients with severe nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage. In a single-blind study performed at 2 referral centers we assigned 148 patients with severe nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (125 with ulcers, 19 with Dieulafoy's lesions, and 4 with Mallory Weiss tears) to groups that underwent standard, visually guided endoscopic hemostasis (control, n = 76), or endoscopic hemostasis assisted by Doppler monitoring of blood flow under the stigmata (n = 72). The primary outcome was the rate of rebleeding after 30 days; secondary outcomes were complications, death, and need for transfusions, surgery, or angiography. There was a significant difference in the rates of lesion rebleeding within 30 days of endoscopic hemostasis in the control group (26.3%) vs the Doppler group (11.1%) (P = .0214). The odds ratio for rebleeding with Doppler monitoring was 0.35 (95% confidence interval, 0.143-0.8565) and the number needed to treat was 7. In a randomized controlled trial of patients with severe upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage from ulcers or other lesions, Doppler probe guided endoscopic hemostasis significantly reduced 30-day rates of rebleeding compared with standard, visually guided hemostasis. Guidelines for nonvariceal gastrointestinal bleeding should incorporate these results. ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT00732212 (CLIN-013-07F). Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic factors for risk stratification of adult cancer patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Yee Mei; Lang, Dora; Lockwood, Craig

Increasing numbers of studies identify new prognostic factors for categorising chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia adult cancer patients into high- or low-risk groups for adverse outcomes. These groupings are used to tailor therapy according to level of risk. However many emerging factors with prognostic significance remain controversial, being based on single studies only. A systematic review was conducted to determine the strength of association of all identified factors associated with the outcomes of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia patients. The participants included were adults of 15 years old and above, with a cancer diagnosis and who underwent cancer treatment.The review focused on clinical factors and their association with the outcomes of cancer patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia at presentation of fever.All quantitative studies published in English which investigated clinical factors for risk stratification of adult cancer patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia were considered.The primary outcome of interest was to identify the clinical factors for risk stratification of adult cancer patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia. Electronic databases searched from their respective inception date up to December 2011 include MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Web of Science, Science-Direct, Scopus and Mednar. The quality of the included studies was subjected to assessment by two independent reviewers. The standardised critical appraisal tool from the Joanna Briggs Institute Meta-Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instrument (JBI-MAStARI) was used to assess the following criteria: representativeness of study population; clearly defined prognostic factors and outcomes; whether potential confounders were addressed and appropriate statistical analysis was undertaken for the study design. Data extraction was performed using a modified version of

A risk score including microdeletions improves relapse prediction for standard and medium risk precursor B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children.

PubMed

Sutton, Rosemary; Venn, Nicola C; Law, Tamara; Boer, Judith M; Trahair, Toby N; Ng, Anthea; Den Boer, Monique L; Dissanayake, Anuruddhika; Giles, Jodie E; Dalzell, Pauline; Mayoh, Chelsea; Barbaric, Draga; Revesz, Tamas; Alvaro, Frank; Pieters, Rob; Haber, Michelle; Norris, Murray D; Schrappe, Martin; Dalla Pozza, Luciano; Marshall, Glenn M

2018-02-01

To prevent relapse, high risk paediatric acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) is treated very intensively. However, most patients who eventually relapse have standard or medium risk ALL with low minimal residual disease (MRD) levels. We analysed recurrent microdeletions and other clinical prognostic factors in a cohort of 475 uniformly treated non-high risk precursor B-cell ALL patients with the aim of better predicting relapse and refining risk stratification. Lower relapse-free survival at 7 years (RFS) was associated with IKZF1 intragenic deletions (P < 0·0001); P2RY8-CRLF2 gene fusion (P < 0·0004); Day 33 MRD>5 × 10 -5 (P < 0·0001) and High National Cancer Institute (NCI) risk (P < 0·0001). We created a predictive model based on a risk score (RS) for deletions, MRD and NCI risk, extending from an RS of 0 (RS0) for patients with no unfavourable factors to RS2 +  for patients with 2 or 3 high risk factors. RS0, RS1, and RS2 +  groups had RFS of 93%, 78% and 49%, respectively, and overall survival (OS) of 99%, 91% and 71%. The RS provided greater discrimination than MRD-based risk stratification into standard (89% RFS, 96% OS) and medium risk groups (79% RFS, 91% OS). We conclude that this RS may enable better early therapeutic stratification and thus improve cure rates for childhood ALL. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Early menarche, nulliparity and the risk for premature and early natural menopause.

PubMed

Mishra, Gita D; Pandeya, Nirmala; Dobson, Annette J; Chung, Hsin-Fang; Anderson, Debra; Kuh, Diana; Sandin, Sven; Giles, Graham G; Bruinsma, Fiona; Hayashi, Kunihiko; Lee, Jung Su; Mizunuma, Hideki; Cade, Janet E; Burley, Victoria; Greenwood, Darren C; Goodman, Alissa; Simonsen, Mette Kildevæld; Adami, Hans-Olov; Demakakos, Panayotes; Weiderpass, Elisabete

2017-03-01

Are parity and the timing of menarche associated with premature and early natural menopause? Early menarche (≤11 years) is a risk factor for both premature menopause (final menstrual period, FMP <40 years) and early menopause (FMP 40-44 years), a risk that is amplified for nulliparous women. Women with either premature or early menopause face an increased risk of chronic conditions in later life and of early death. Findings from some studies suggest that early menarche and nulliparity are associated with early menopause, however overall the evidence is mixed. Much of the evidence for a direct relationship is hampered by a lack of comparability across studies, failure to adjust for confounding factors and inadequate statistical power. This pooled study comprises 51 450 postmenopausal women from nine observational studies in the UK, Scandinavia, Australia and Japan that contribute to the International collaboration for a Life course Approach to reproductive health and Chronic disease Events (InterLACE). Age at menarche (categorized as ≤11, 12, 13, 14 and 15 or more years) and parity (categorized as no children, one child and two or more children) were exposures of interest. Age at FMP was confirmed by at least 12 months of cessation of menses where this was not the result of an intervention (such as surgical menopause due to bilateral oophorectomy or hysterectomy) and categorized as premature menopause (FMP before age 40), early menopause (FMP 40-44 years), 45-49 years, 50-51 years, 52-53 years and 54 or more years. We used multivariate multinomial logistic regression models to estimate relative risk ratio (RRR) and 95% CI for associations between menarche, parity and age at FMP adjusting for within-study correlation. The median age at FMP was 50 years (interquartile range 48-53 years), with 2% of the women experiencing premature menopause and 7.6% early menopause. Women with early menarche (≤11 years, compared with 12-13 years) were at higher risk of premature

Malaria ecotypes and stratification.

PubMed

Schapira, Allan; Boutsika, Konstantina

2012-01-01

To deal with the variability of malaria, control programmes need to stratify their malaria problem into a number of smaller units. Such stratification may be based on the epidemiology of malaria or on its determinants such as ecology. An ecotype classification was developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) around 1990, and it is time to assess its usefulness for current malaria control as well as for malaria modelling on the basis of published research. Journal and grey literature was searched for articles on malaria or Anopheles combined with ecology or stratification. It was found that all malaria in the world today could be assigned to one or more of the following ecotypes: savanna, plains and valleys; forest and forest fringe; foothill; mountain fringe and northern and southern fringes; desert fringe; coastal and urban. However, some areas are in transitional or mixed zones; furthermore, the implications of any ecotype depend on the biogeographical region, sometimes subregion, and finally, the knowledge on physiography needs to be supplemented by local information on natural, anthropic and health system processes including malaria control. Ecotyping can therefore not be seen as a shortcut to determine control interventions, but rather as a framework to supplement available epidemiological and entomological data so as to assess malaria situations at the local level, think through the particular risks and opportunities and reinforce intersectoral action. With these caveats, it does however emerge that several ecotypic distinctions are well defined and have relatively constant implications for control within certain biogeographic regions. Forest environments in the Indo-malay and the Neotropics are, with a few exceptions, associated with much higher malaria risk than in adjacent areas; the vectors are difficult to control, and the anthropic factors also often converge to impose constraints. Urban malaria in Africa is associated with lower risk than savanna

Stratification requirements for germination of western larch (Larix occidentalis Nutt.) seed.

Treesearch

Frank C. Sorenson

1990-01-01

A northeast Washington collection of western larch seeds was stratified for 0,10, 20, 40, and 80 days and incubated at 55, 64, and 73 °F. The germination percentage of filled seeds and speed and uniformity of germination were improved by long stratification, particularly at the lowest incubation temperature. Stratified seeds were also nursery sown in early April and...

Maximization of the usage of coronary CTA derived plaque information using a machine learning based algorithm to improve risk stratification; insights from the CONFIRM registry.

PubMed

van Rosendael, Alexander R; Maliakal, Gabriel; Kolli, Kranthi K; Beecy, Ashley; Al'Aref, Subhi J; Dwivedi, Aeshita; Singh, Gurpreet; Panday, Mohit; Kumar, Amit; Ma, Xiaoyue; Achenbach, Stephan; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Andreini, Daniele; Bax, Jeroen J; Berman, Daniel S; Budoff, Matthew J; Cademartiri, Filippo; Callister, Tracy Q; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha; Chow, Benjamin J W; Cury, Ricardo C; DeLago, Augustin; Feuchtner, Gudrun; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Joerg; Kaufmann, Philipp A; Kim, Yong-Jin; Leipsic, Jonathon A; Maffei, Erica; Marques, Hugo; Pontone, Gianluca; Raff, Gilbert L; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Shaw, Leslee J; Villines, Todd C; Gransar, Heidi; Lu, Yao; Jones, Erica C; Peña, Jessica M; Lin, Fay Y; Min, James K

Machine learning (ML) is a field in computer science that demonstrated to effectively integrate clinical and imaging data for the creation of prognostic scores. The current study investigated whether a ML score, incorporating only the 16 segment coronary tree information derived from coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), provides enhanced risk stratification compared with current CCTA based risk scores. From the multi-center CONFIRM registry, patients were included with complete CCTA risk score information and ≥3 year follow-up for myocardial infarction and death (primary endpoint). Patients with prior coronary artery disease were excluded. Conventional CCTA risk scores (conventional CCTA approach, segment involvement score, duke prognostic index, segment stenosis score, and the Leaman risk score) and a score created using ML were compared for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Only 16 segment based coronary stenosis (0%, 1-24%, 25-49%, 50-69%, 70-99% and 100%) and composition (calcified, mixed and non-calcified plaque) were provided to the ML model. A boosted ensemble algorithm (extreme gradient boosting; XGBoost) was used and the entire data was randomly split into a training set (80%) and testing set (20%). First, tuned hyperparameters were used to generate a trained model from the training data set (80% of data). Second, the performance of this trained model was independently tested on the unseen test set (20% of data). In total, 8844 patients (mean age 58.0 ± 11.5 years, 57.7% male) were included. During a mean follow-up time of 4.6 ± 1.5 years, 609 events occurred (6.9%). No CAD was observed in 48.7% (3.5% event), non-obstructive CAD in 31.8% (6.8% event), and obstructive CAD in 19.5% (15.6% event). Discrimination of events as expressed by AUC was significantly better for the ML based approach (0.771) vs the other scores (ranging from 0.685 to 0.701), P < 0.001. Net reclassification improvement

Power of resting echocardiographic measurements to classify pulmonary hypertension patients according to European society of cardiology exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs.

PubMed

Rehman, Michaela B; Garcia, Rodrigue; Christiaens, Luc; Larrieu-Ardilouze, Elisa; Howard, Luke S; Nihoyannopoulos, Petros

2018-04-15

Right ventricular function is the major determinant of morbidity and mortality in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The ESC risk assessment strategy for PAH is based on clinical status, exercise testing, NTproBNP, imaging and haemodynamics but does not include right ventricular function. Our aims were to test the power of resting echocardiographic measurements to classify PAH patients according to ESC exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs and to determine if the classification power of echocardiographic parameters varied in chronic thrombo-embolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). We prospectively and consecutively recruited 46 PAH patients and 42 CTEPH patients referred for cardio-pulmonary exercise testing and comprehensive transthoracic echocardiography. Exercise testing parameters analyzed were peak oxygen consumption, percentage of predicted maximal oxygen consumption and the slope of ventilation against carbon dioxide production. Receiver operator characteristic curves were used to determine the optimal diagnostic cut-off values of echocardiographic parameters for classifying the patients in intermediate or high risk category according to exercise testing. Measurements of right ventricular systolic function were the best for classifying in PAH (area under the curve 0.815 to 0.935). Measurements of right ventricular pressure overload (0.810 to 0.909) were optimal for classifying according to exercise testing in CTEPH. Measurements of left ventricular function were of no use in either group. Measurements of right ventricular systolic function can classify according to exercise testing risk stratification cut-offs in PAH. However, this is not the case in CTEPH where pressure overload, rather than right ventricular function seems to be linked to exercise performance. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular risk stratification in overweight or obese patients in primary prevention. Implications for use of statins.

PubMed

Masson, Walter; Lobo, Martín; Huerín, Melina; Molinero, Graciela; Manente, Diego; Pángaro, Mario; Vitagliano, Laura; Zylbersztejn, Horacio

2015-02-01

Cardiovascular risk estimation in patients with overweight/obesity is not standardized. Our objectives were to stratify cardiovascular risk using different scores, to analyze use of statins, to report the prevalence of carotid atherosclerotic plaque (CAP), and to determine the optimal cut-off point (OCP) of scores that discriminate between subjects with or without CAP. Non-diabetic patients with overweight or obesity in primary prevention were enrolled. The Framingham score (FS), the European score (ES), and the score proposed by the new American guidelines (NS) were calculated, and statin indication was evaluated. Prevalence of CAP was determined by ultrasound examination. A ROC analysis was performed. A total of 474 patients (67% with overweight and 33% obese) were enrolled into the study. The FS classified the largest number of subjects as low risk. PAC prevalence was higher in obese as compared to overweight subjects (44.8% vs. 36.1%, P=.04). According to the FS, ES, and NS respectively, 26.7%, 39.1%, and 39.1% of overweight subjects and 28.6%, 39.0%, and 39.0% of obese subjects had an absolute indication for statins. All three scores were shown to acceptably discriminate between subjects with and without CAP (area under the curve>0.7). The OCPs evaluated did not agree with the risk category values. Risk stratification and use of statins varied in the overweight/obese population depending on the function used. Understanding of the relationship between scores and presence of CAP may optimize risk estimate. Copyright © 2014 SEEN. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Validation of risk stratification for children with febrile neutropenia in a pediatric oncology unit in India.

PubMed

Das, Anirban; Trehan, Amita; Oberoi, Sapna; Bansal, Deepak

2017-06-01

The study aims to validate a score predicting risk of complications in pediatric patients with chemotherapy-related febrile neutropenia (FN) and evaluate the performance of previously published models for risk stratification. Children diagnosed with cancer and presenting with FN were evaluated in a prospective single-center study. A score predicting the risk of complications, previously derived in the unit, was validated on a prospective cohort. Performance of six predictive models published from geographically distinct settings was assessed on the same cohort. Complications were observed in 109 (26.3%) of 414 episodes of FN over 15 months. A risk score based on undernutrition (two points), time from last chemotherapy (<7 days = two points), presence of a nonupper respiratory focus of infection (two points), C-reactive protein (>60 mg/l = five points), and absolute neutrophil count (<100 per μl = two points) was used to stratify patients into "low risk" (score <7, n = 208) and assessed using the following parameters: overall performance (Nagelkerke R 2 = 34.4%), calibration (calibration slope = 0.39; P = 0.25 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test), discrimination (c-statistic = 0.81), overall sensitivity (86%), negative predictive value (93%), and clinical net benefit (0.43). Six previously published rules demonstrated inferior performance in this cohort. An indigenous decision rule using five simple predefined variables was successful in identifying children at risk for complications. Prediction models derived in developed nations may not be appropriate for low-middle-income settings and need to be validated before use. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Clinically Feasible Stratification of 3-Year Chronic Disease Risk in Primary Care: The Mental Health Integration Risk Score.

PubMed

May, Heidi T; Reiss-Brennan, Brenda; Brunisholz, Kimberly D; Horne, Benjamin D

Depression is a common illness that imposes a disproportionately large health burden. Depression is generally associated with a higher prevalence of chronic disease risk factors and may contribute to higher chronic disease risk. This study aimed to create and validate sex-specific Mental Health Integration Risk Scores (MHIRS) that predict 3-year chronic disease diagnosis. MHIRS was created to predict the first diagnosis of any of the 10 chronic diseases in patients completing a Patient Health Questionnaire-9 Depression Survey who were free at baseline from those 10 chronic disease diagnoses. MHIRS used sex-specific weightings of Patient Health Questionnaire 9 results, age, and components of the complete metabolic profile and complete blood count in randomly chosen derivation (70%) and validation (30%) groups. Among females (N = 10,162, age: 48 ± 16), c-statistics for the composite chronic disease end point were 0.746 (0.725, 0.767) for the derivation group and 0.717 (0.682, 0.753) for the validation group, whereas males (N = 4615, age: 48 ± 15) had 0.755 (0.727, 0.783) and 0.742 (0.702, 0.782). In the validation group, MHIRS strata of low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories had hazard ratios (HR) for any 3-year chronic disease diagnosis among females of HR = 3.42 for moderate vs low and HR = 9.75 for high vs low, whereas males had HR = 4.80 and HR = 10.68, respectively (all p < 0.0001). A clinical decision tool comprised by depression severity and common laboratory tests, and MHIRS provides very good stratification of a 3-year chronic disease diagnosis. Designed to be calculated electronically by an electronic health record, MHIRS can be efficiently obtained by clinicians to identify patients at higher chronic disease risk who require further evaluation and more precise clinical management. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Psychosomatic Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Which is the optimal risk stratification system for surgically treated localized primary GIST? Comparison of three contemporary prognostic criteria in 171 tumors and a proposal for a modified Armed Forces Institute of Pathology risk criteria.

PubMed

Goh, Brian K P; Chow, Pierce K H; Yap, Wai-Ming; Kesavan, Sittampalam M; Song, In-Chin; Paul, Pradeep G; Ooi, Boon-Swee; Chung, Yaw-Fui A; Wong, Wai-Keong

2008-08-01

This study aims to validate and compare the performance of the National Institute of Health (NIH) criteria, Huang modified NIH criteria, and Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP) risk criteria for gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) in a large series of localized primary GISTs surgically treated at a single institution to determine the ideal risk stratification system for GIST. The clinicopathological features of 171 consecutive patients who underwent surgical resection for GISTs were retrospectively reviewed. Statistical analyses were performed to compare the prognostic value of the three risk criteria by analyzing the discriminatory ability linear trend, homogeneity, monotonicity of gradients, and Akaike information criteria. The median actuarial recurrence-free survival (RFS) for all 171 patients was 70%. On multivariate analyses, size >10 cm, mitotic count >5/50 high-power field, tumor necrosis, and serosal involvement were independent prognostic factors of RFS. All three risk criteria demonstrated a statistically significant difference in the recurrence rate, median actuarial RFS, actuarial 5-year RFS, and tumor-specific death across the different stages. Comparison of the various risk-stratification systems demonstrated that our proposed modified AFIP criteria had the best independent predictive value of RFS when compared with the other systems. The NIH, modified NIH, and AFIP criteria are useful in the prognostication of GIST, and the AFIP risk criteria provided the best prognostication among the three systems for primary localized GIST. However, remarkable prognostic heterogeneity exists in the AFIP high-risk category, and with our proposed modification, this system provides the most accurate prognostic information.

Derivation of genetic biomarkers for cancer risk stratification in Barrett's oesophagus: a prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Timmer, Margriet R.; Martinez, Pierre; Lau, Chiu T.; Westra, Wytske M.; Calpe, Silvia; Rygiel, Agnieszka M.; Rosmolen, Wilda D.; Meijer, Sybren L.; ten Kate, Fiebo J.W.; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G.W.; Mallant-Hent, Rosalie C.; Naber, Anton H.J.; van Oijen, Arnoud H.A.M.; Baak, Lubbertus C.; Scholten, Pieter; Böhmer, Clarisse J.M.; Fockens, Paul; Maley, Carlo C.; Graham, Trevor A.; Bergman, Jacques J.G.H.M.; Krishnadath, Kausilia K.

2016-01-01

Objective The risk of developing adenocarcinoma in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus is low and difficult to predict. Accurate tools for risk stratification are needed to increase the efficiency of surveillance. We aimed to develop a prediction model for progression using clinical variables and genetic markers. Methods In a prospective cohort of patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus, we evaluated six molecular markers: p16, p53, Her-2/neu, 20q, MYC, and aneusomy by DNA fluorescence in situ hybridisation on brush cytology specimens. Primary study outcomes were the development of high-grade dysplasia or oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The most predictive clinical variables and markers were determined using Cox proportional-hazards models, receiver-operating-characteristic curves and a leave-one-out analysis. Results A total of 428 patients participated (345 men; median age 60 years) with a cumulative follow-up of 2019 patient-years (median 45 months per patient). Of these patients, 22 progressed; nine developed high-grade dysplasia and 13 oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The clinical variables, age and circumferential Barrett's length, and the markers, p16 loss, MYC gain, and aneusomy, were significantly associated with progression on univariate analysis. We defined an ‘Abnormal Marker Count’ that counted abnormalities in p16, MYC and aneusomy, which significantly improved risk prediction beyond using just age and Barrett's length. In multivariate analysis, these three factors identified a high-risk group with an 8.7-fold (95% CI, 2.6 to 29.8) increased hazard ratio compared with the low-risk group, with an area under the curve of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.66 to 0.86). Conclusion A prediction model based on age, Barrett's length, and the markers p16, MYC, and aneusomy determines progression risk in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus. PMID:26104750

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Risk Stratification of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) by the Primary Care Physician Using the NAFLD Fibrosis Score.

PubMed

Tapper, Elliot B; Hunink, M G Myriam; Afdhal, Nezam H; Lai, Michelle; Sengupta, Neil

2016-01-01

The complications of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) are dependent on the presence of advanced fibrosis. Given the high prevalence of NAFLD in the US, the optimal evaluation of NAFLD likely involves triage by a primary care physician (PCP) with advanced disease managed by gastroenterologists. We compared the cost-effectiveness of fibrosis risk-assessment strategies in a cohort of 10,000 simulated American patients with NAFLD performed in either PCP or referral clinics using a decision analytical microsimulation state-transition model. The strategies included use of vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), combination testing with NFS and VCTE, and liver biopsy (usual care by a specialist only). NFS and VCTE performance was obtained from a prospective cohort of 164 patients with NAFLD. Outcomes included cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) and correct classification of fibrosis. Risk-stratification by the PCP using the NFS alone costs $5,985 per QALY while usual care costs $7,229/QALY. In the microsimulation, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000, the NFS alone in PCP clinic was the most cost-effective strategy in 94.2% of samples, followed by combination NFS/VCTE in the PCP clinic (5.6%) and usual care in 0.2%. The NFS based strategies yield the best biopsy-correct classification ratios (3.5) while the NFS/VCTE and usual care strategies yield more correct-classifications of advanced fibrosis at the cost of 3 and 37 additional biopsies per classification. Risk-stratification of patients with NAFLD primary care clinic is a cost-effective strategy that should be formally explored in clinical practice.

Palaeoceanography. Antarctic stratification and glacial CO2.

PubMed

Keeling, R F; Visbeck, M

2001-08-09

One way of accounting for lowered atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations during Pleistocene glacial periods is by invoking the Antarctic stratification hypothesis, which links the reduction in CO2 to greater stratification of ocean surface waters around Antarctica. As discussed by Sigman and Boyle, this hypothesis assumes that increased stratification in the Antarctic zone (Fig. 1) was associated with reduced upwelling of deep waters around Antarctica, thereby allowing CO2 outgassing to be suppressed by biological production while also allowing biological production to decline, which is consistent with Antarctic sediment records. We point out here, however, that the response of ocean eddies to increased Antarctic stratification can be expected to increase, rather than reduce, the upwelling rate of deep waters around Antarctica. The stratification hypothesis may have difficulty in accommodating eddy feedbacks on upwelling within the constraints imposed by reconstructions of winds and Antarctic-zone productivity in glacial periods.

Plaque Tissue Morphology-Based Stroke Risk Stratification Using Carotid Ultrasound: A Polling-Based PCA Learning Paradigm.

PubMed

Saba, Luca; Jain, Pankaj K; Suri, Harman S; Ikeda, Nobutaka; Araki, Tadashi; Singh, Bikesh K; Nicolaides, Andrew; Shafique, Shoaib; Gupta, Ajay; Laird, John R; Suri, Jasjit S

2017-06-01

Severe atherosclerosis disease in carotid arteries causes stenosis which in turn leads to stroke. Machine learning systems have been previously developed for plaque wall risk assessment using morphology-based characterization. The fundamental assumption in such systems is the extraction of the grayscale features of the plaque region. Even though these systems have the ability to perform risk stratification, they lack the ability to achieve higher performance due their inability to select and retain dominant features. This paper introduces a polling-based principal component analysis (PCA) strategy embedded in the machine learning framework to select and retain dominant features, resulting in superior performance. This leads to more stability and reliability. The automated system uses offline image data along with the ground truth labels to generate the parameters, which are then used to transform the online grayscale features to predict the risk of stroke. A set of sixteen grayscale plaque features is computed. Utilizing the cross-validation protocol (K = 10), and the PCA cutoff of 0.995, the machine learning system is able to achieve an accuracy of 98.55 and 98.83%corresponding to the carotidfar wall and near wall plaques, respectively. The corresponding reliability of the system was 94.56 and 95.63%, respectively. The automated system was validated against the manual risk assessment system and the precision of merit for same cross-validation settings and PCA cutoffs are 98.28 and 93.92%for the far and the near wall, respectively.PCA-embedded morphology-based plaque characterization shows a powerful strategy for risk assessment and can be adapted in clinical settings.

Optimizing risk stratification in heart failure and the selection of candidates for heart transplantation.

PubMed

Pereira-da-Silva, Tiago; M Soares, Rui; Papoila, Ana Luísa; Pinto, Iola; Feliciano, Joana; Almeida-Morais, Luís; Abreu, Ana; Cruz Ferreira, Rui

2018-02-01

Selecting patients for heart transplantation is challenging. We aimed to identify the most important risk predictors in heart failure and an approach to optimize the selection of candidates for heart transplantation. Ambulatory patients followed in our center with symptomatic heart failure and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40% prospectively underwent a comprehensive baseline assessment including clinical, laboratory, electrocardiographic, echocardiographic, and cardiopulmonary exercise testing parameters. All patients were followed for 60 months. The combined endpoint was cardiac death, urgent heart transplantation or need for mechanical circulatory support, up to 36 months. In the 263 enrolled patients (75% male, age 54±12 years), 54 events occurred. The independent predictors of adverse outcome were ventilatory efficiency (VE/VCO 2 ) slope (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.11-1.18), creatinine level (HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.14-4.36), and left ventricular ejection fraction (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.99). VE/VCO 2 slope was the most accurate risk predictor at any follow-up time analyzed (up to 60 months). The threshold of 39.0 yielded high specificity (97%), discriminated a worse or better prognosis than that reported for post-heart transplantation, and outperformed peak oxygen consumption thresholds of 10.0 or 12.0 ml/kg/min. For low-risk patients (VE/VCO 2 slope <39.0), sodium and creatinine levels and variations in end-tidal carbon dioxide partial pressure on exercise identified those with excellent prognosis. VE/VCO 2 slope was the most accurate parameter for risk stratification in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. Those with VE/VCO 2 slope ≥39.0 may benefit from heart transplantation. Copyright © 2018 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring for risk stratification in obese and non-obese subjects from 10 populations.

PubMed

Hansen, T W; Thijs, L; Li, Y; Boggia, J; Liu, Y; Asayama, K; Kikuya, M; Björklund-Bodegård, K; Ohkubo, T; Jeppesen, J; Torp-Pedersen, C; Dolan, E; Kuznetsova, T; Stolarz-Skrzypek, K; Tikhonoff, V; Malyutina, S; Casiglia, E; Nikitin, Y; Lind, L; Sandoya, E; Kawecka-Jaszcz, K; Filipovský, J; Imai, Y; Wang, J; O'Brien, E; Staessen, J A

2014-09-01

Overweight clusters with high blood pressure (BP), but the independent contribution of both risk factors remains insufficiently documented. In a prospective population study involving 8467 participants (mean age 54.6 years; 47.0% women) randomly recruited from 10 populations, we studied the contribution of body mass index (BMI) to risk over and beyond BP, taking advantage of the superiority of ambulatory over conventional BP. Over 10.6 years (median), 1271 participants (15.0%) died and 1092 (12.9%), 637 (7.5%) and 443 (5.2%) experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular, cardiac or cerebrovascular event. Adjusted for sex and age, low BMI (<20.7 kg m(-2)) predicted death (hazard ratio (HR) vs average risk, 1.52; P<0.0001) and high BMI (> or = 30.9 kg m(-2)) predicted the cardiovascular end point (HR, 1.27; P=0.006). With adjustments including 24-h systolic BP, these HRs were 1.50 (P<0.001) and 0.98 (P=0.91), respectively. Across quartiles of the BMI distribution, 24-h and nighttime systolic BP predicted every end point (1.13 < or = standardized HR < or = 1.67; 0.046 < or = P<0.0001). The interaction between systolic BP and BMI was nonsignificant (P > or = .22). Excluding smokers removed the contribution of BMI categories to the prediction of mortality. In conclusion, BMI only adds to BP in risk stratification for mortality but not for cardiovascular outcomes. Smoking probably explains the association between increased mortality and low BMI.

Impact of Arctic shelf summer stratification on Holocene climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibodeau, Benoit; Bauch, Henning A.; Knies, Jochen

2018-07-01

Understanding the dynamic of freshwater and sea-ice export from the Arctic is crucial to better comprehend the potential near-future climate change consequences. Here, we report nitrogen isotope data of a core from the Laptev Sea to shed light on the impact of the Holocene Siberian transgression on the summer stratification of the Laptev Sea. Our data suggest that the oceanographic setting was less favourable to sea-ice formation in the Laptev Sea during the early to mid-Holocene. It is only after the sea level reached a standstill at around 4 ka that the water column structure in the Laptev Sea became more stable. Modern-day conditions, often described as "sea-ice factory", were reached about 2 ka ago, after the development of a strong summer stratification. These results are consistent with sea-ice reconstruction along the Transpolar Drift, highlighting the potential contribution of the Laptev Sea to the export of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean.

Implementation of a Risk Stratification and Management Pathway for Acute Chest Pain in the Emergency Department.

PubMed

Baugh, Christopher W; Greenberg, Jeffrey O; Mahler, Simon A; Kosowsky, Joshua M; Schuur, Jeremiah D; Parmar, Siddharth; Ciociolo, George R; Carr, Christina W; Ghazinouri, Roya; Scirica, Benjamin M

2016-12-01

Chest pain is a common complaint in the emergency department, and a small but important minority represents an acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Variation in diagnostic workup, risk stratification, and management may result in underuse, misuse, and/or overuse of resources. From July to October 2014, we conducted a prospective cohort study in an academic medical center by implementing a Standardized Clinical Assessment and Management Plan (SCAMP) for chest pain based on the HEART score. In addition to capturing adherence to the SCAMP algorithm and reasons for any deviations, we measured troponin sample timing; rates of stress test utilization; length of stay (LOS); and 30-day rates of revascularization, ACS, and death. We identified 239 patients during the enrollment period who were eligible to enter the SCAMP, of whom 97 patients were entered into the pathway. Patients were risk stratified into one of 3 risk tiers: high (n = 3), intermediate (n = 40), and low (n = 54). Among low-risk patients, recommendations for troponin testing were not followed in 56%, and 11% received stress tests contrary to the SCAMP recommendation. None of the low-risk patients had elevated troponin measurements, and none had an abnormal stress test. Mean LOS in low-risk patients managed with discordant plans was 22:26 h/min, compared with 9:13 h/min in concordant patients (P < 0.001). Mean LOS in intermediate-risk patients with stress testing was 25:53 h/min, compared with 7:55 h/min for those without (P < 0.001). At 30 days, 10% of intermediate-risk patients and 0% of low-risk patients experienced an ACS event (risk difference 10% [0.7%-19%]); none experienced revascularization or death. The most frequently cited reason for deviation from the SCAMP was lack of confidence in the tool. Compliance with SCAMP recommendations for low- and intermediate-risk patients was poor, largely due to lack of confidence in the tool. However, in our study population, outcomes suggest that deviation

A Comparative Review of Stratification Texts and Readers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peoples, Clayton D.

2012-01-01

Social stratification is a core substantive area within sociology. There are a number of textbooks and readers available on the market that deal with this central topic. In this article, I conduct a comparative review of (a) four stratification textbooks and (b) four stratification readers. (Contains 2 tables.)

Cost-effectiveness analysis of prognostic gene expression signature-based stratification of early breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Blank, Patricia R; Filipits, Martin; Dubsky, Peter; Gutzwiller, Florian; Lux, Michael P; Brase, Jan C; Weber, Karsten E; Rudas, Margaretha; Greil, Richard; Loibl, Sibylle; Szucs, Thomas D; Kronenwett, Ralf; Schwenkglenks, Matthias; Gnant, Michael

2015-02-01

The individual risk of recurrence in hormone receptor-positive primary breast cancer patients determines whether adjuvant endocrine therapy should be combined with chemotherapy. Clinicopathological parameters and molecular tests such as EndoPredict(®) (EPclin) can support decision making in patients with estrogen receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative cancer. Using a life-long Markov state transition model, we determined the health economic impact and incremental cost effectiveness of EPclin-based risk stratification in combination with clinical guidelines [German-S3, National Comprehensive Cancer Center Network (NCCN), and St. Gallen] to decide on chemotherapy use. Information on overall and metastasis-free survival came from Austrian Breast & Colorectal Cancer Study Group clinical trials 6/8 (n = 1,619) and published literature. Effectiveness was assessed as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs (2010) were assessed from a German third-party payer perspective. Lifetime costs per patient ranged from 28,268 (St.Gallen and EPclin) to 33,756 (NCCN). Due to an imperfect prognostic value and differences in chemotherapy use, strategies achieved between 13.165 QALYs (NCCN) and 13.173 QALYs (EPclin alone) per patient. Using German-S3 as reference, three strategies showed dominant results (St. Gallen and EPclin, German-S3 and EPclin, EPclin alone). Compared to German-S3, the addition of EPclin saved 3,388 and gained 0.002 QALYs per patient. Combining guidelines with EPclin remained preferable in sensitivity analysis. Our study suggests that molecular markers can be sensibly combined with clinical guidelines to determine the risk profile of adjuvant breast cancer patients. Compared with the current German best practice (German-S3), combinations of EPclin with the St. Gallen, German-S3 or NCCN guideline and EPclin alone were dominant from the perspective of the German healthcare system.

Nonobstructive Coronary Artery Disease by Coronary CT Angiography Improves Risk Stratification and Allocation of Statin Therapy.

PubMed

Emami, Hamed; Takx, Richard A P; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Janjua, Sumbal; Park, Jakob; Pursnani, Amit; Tawakol, Ahmed; Lu, Michael T; Ferencik, Maros; Hoffmann, Udo

2017-09-01

This study sought to determine prognostic value of nonobstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events and to determine whether incorporation of this information into the pooled cohort equation reclassifies recommendations for statin therapy as defined by the 2013 guidelines for cholesterol management of the American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association (ACC/AHA). Detection of nonobstructive CAD by coronary computed tomography angiography may improve risk stratification and permit individualized and more appropriate allocation of statin therapy. This study determined the pooled hazard ratio of nonobstructive CAD for ASCVD events from published studies and incorporated this information into the ACC/AHA pooled cohort equation. The study calculated revised sex- and ethnicity-based 10-year ASCVD risk and determined boundaries corresponding to the original 7.5% risk for ASCVD events. It also assessed reclassification for statin eligibility by incorporating the results from meta-analysis to individual patients from a separate cohort. This study included 2 studies (2,295 subjects; 66% male; prevalence of nonobstructive CAD, 47%; median follow-up, 49 months; 67 ASCVD events). The hazard ratio of nonobstructive CAD for ASCVD events was 3.2 (95% confidence interval: 1.5 to 6.7). Incorporation of this information into the pooled cohort equation resulted in reclassification toward statin eligibility in individuals with nonobstructive CAD, with an original ASCVD score of 3.0% and 5.9% or higher in African-American women and men and a score of 4.4% and 4.6% or higher in Caucasian women and men, respectively. The absence of nonobstructive CAD resulted in reclassification toward statin ineligibility if the original ASCVD score was as 10.0% and 17.9% or lower in African-American women and men and 13.7% and 14.3% or lower in Caucasian women and men, respectively. Reclassification is observed in 14% of patients

A national approach to diabetes foot risk stratification and foot care.

PubMed

Leese, G P; Stang, D; Pearson, D W

2011-08-01

The Scottish Diabetes Foot Action Group (SDG) has developed and introduced a national strategy plan for diabetic foot care across Scotland. This has involved the implementation of an evidence-based national foot screening and risk stratification programme that has already covered 61% of the population in just the first two years. Nationally agreed patient information foot leaflets and professional education material have been introduced, and a consensus for antibiotic use in the diabetic foot has been published. Information on multidisciplinary specialist foot services has been collected, indicating that 58% of Health Board areas have consultants with dedicated sessions in their job plan to a foot clinic, and 42% had integrated orthotic involvement. The SDG aims to increase these figures. Work has been undertaken to support local podiatry networks and improve communication between the specialist centre and the community. At a national level the SDG is working with Foot in Diabetes UK (FDUK) to recognize key podiatry skills by developing core competencies and a competency framework for the diabetes podiatrist and diabetes orthotist. The annual Scottish Diabetes Survey indicates some improvement in amputation rates with prevalence decreasing from 0.8% to 0.5%, and improved recording of foot ulceration at a national level. This national strategy has helped highlight the importance and difficulties facing diabetes foot care and should help to continue to improve the quality of care of people with diabetes who have foot-related problems.

Vertical Stratification of Soil Phosphorus as a Concern for Dissolved Phosphorus Runoff in the Lake Erie Basin.

PubMed

Baker, David B; Johnson, Laura T; Confesor, Remegio B; Crumrine, John P

2017-11-01

During the re-eutrophication of Lake Erie, dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) loading and concentrations to the lake have nearly doubled, while particulate phosphorus (PP) has remained relatively constant. One potential cause of increased DRP concentrations is P stratification, or the buildup of soil-test P (STP) in the upper soil layer (<5 cm). Stratification often accompanies no-till and mulch-till practices that reduce erosion and PP loading, practices that have been widely implemented throughout the Lake Erie Basin. To evaluate the extent of P stratification in the Sandusky Watershed, certified crop advisors were enlisted to collect stratified soil samples (0-5 or 0-2.5 cm) alongside their normal agronomic samples (0-20 cm) ( = 1758 fields). The mean STP level in the upper 2.5 cm was 55% higher than the mean of agronomic samples used for fertilizer recommendations. The amounts of stratification were highly variable and did not correlate with agronomic STPs (Spearman's = 0.039, = 0.178). Agronomic STP in 70% of the fields was within the buildup or maintenance ranges for corn ( L.) and soybeans [ (L.) Merr.] (0-46 mg kg Mehlich-3 P). The cumulative risks for DRP runoff from the large number of fields in the buildup and maintenance ranges exceeded the risks from fields above those ranges. Reducing stratification by a one-time soil inversion has the potential for larger and quicker reductions in DRP runoff risk than practices related to drawing down agronomic STP levels. Periodic soil inversion and mixing, targeted by stratified STP data, should be considered a viable practice to reduce DRP loading to Lake Erie. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Effect of sample stratification on dairy GWAS results

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Artificial insemination and genetic selection are major factors contributing to population stratification in dairy cattle. In this study, we analyzed the effect of sample stratification and the effect of stratification correction on results of a dairy genome-wide association study (GWAS). Three methods for stratification correction were used: the efficient mixed-model association expedited (EMMAX) method accounting for correlation among all individuals, a generalized least squares (GLS) method based on half-sib intraclass correlation, and a principal component analysis (PCA) approach. Results Historical pedigree data revealed that the 1,654 contemporary cows in the GWAS were all related when traced through approximately 10–15 generations of ancestors. Genome and phenotype stratifications had a striking overlap with the half-sib structure. A large elite half-sib family of cows contributed to the detection of favorable alleles that had low frequencies in the general population and high frequencies in the elite cows and contributed to the detection of X chromosome effects. All three methods for stratification correction reduced the number of significant effects. EMMAX method had the most severe reduction in the number of significant effects, and the PCA method using 20 principal components and GLS had similar significance levels. Removal of the elite cows from the analysis without using stratification correction removed many effects that were also removed by the three methods for stratification correction, indicating that stratification correction could have removed some true effects due to the elite cows. SNP effects with good consensus between different methods and effect size distributions from USDA’s Holstein genomic evaluation included the DGAT1-NIBP region of BTA14 for production traits, a SNP 45kb upstream from PIGY on BTA6 and two SNPs in NIBP on BTA14 for protein percentage. However, most of these consensus effects had similar frequencies in

Effect of gravitational stratification on the propagation of a CME

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagano, P.; Mackay, D. H.; Poedts, S.

2013-12-01

Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most violent phenomenon found on the Sun. One model that explains their occurrence is the flux rope ejection model. A magnetic flux rope is ejected from the solar corona and reaches the interplanetary space where it interacts with the pre-existing magnetic fields and plasma. Both gravity and the stratification of the corona affect the early evolution of the flux rope. Aims: Our aim is to study the role of gravitational stratification on the propagation of CMEs. In particular, we assess how it influences the speed and shape of CMEs and under what conditions the flux rope ejection becomes a CME or when it is quenched. Methods: We ran a set of MHD simulations that adopt an eruptive initial magnetic configuration that has already been shown to be suitable for a flux rope ejection. We varied the temperature of the backgroud corona and the intensity of the initial magnetic field to tune the gravitational stratification and the amount of ejected magnetic flux. We used an automatic technique to track the expansion and the propagation of the magnetic flux rope in the MHD simulations. From the analysis of the parameter space, we evaluate the role of gravitational stratification on the CME speed and expansion. Results: Our study shows that gravitational stratification plays a significant role in determining whether the flux rope ejection will turn into a full CME or whether the magnetic flux rope will stop in the corona. The CME speed is affected by the background corona where it travels faster when the corona is colder and when the initial magnetic field is more intense. The fastest CME we reproduce in our parameter space travels at ~850 km s-1. Moreover, the background gravitational stratification plays a role in the side expansion of the CME, and we find that when the background temperature is higher, the resulting shape of the CME is flattened more. Conclusions: Our study shows that although the initiation mechanisms of the

Tidal asymmetries of velocity and stratification over a bathymetric depression in a tropical inlet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waterhouse, Amy F.; Valle-Levinson, Arnoldo; Morales Pérez, Rubén A.

2012-10-01

Observations of current velocity, sea surface elevation and vertical profiles of density were obtained in a tropical inlet to determine the effect of a bathymetric depression (hollow) on the tidal flows. Surveys measuring velocity profiles were conducted over a diurnal tidal cycle with mixed spring tides during dry and wet seasons. Depth-averaged tidal velocities during ebb and flood tides behaved according to Bernoulli dynamics, as expected. The dynamic balance of depth-averaged quantities in the along-channel direction was governed by along-channel advection and pressure gradients with baroclinic pressure gradients only being important during the wet season. The vertical structure of the along-channel flow during flood tides exhibited a mid-depth maximum with lateral shear enhanced during the dry season as a result of decreased vertical stratification. During ebb tides, along-channel velocities in the vicinity of the hollow were vertically sheared with a weak return flow at depth due to choking of the flow on the seaward slope of the hollow. The potential energy anomaly, a measure of the amount of energy required to fully mix the water column, showed two peaks in stratification associated with ebb tide and a third peak occurring at the beginning of flood. After the first mid-ebb peak in stratification, ebb flows were constricted on the seaward slope of the hollow resulting in a bottom return flow. The sinking of surface waters and enhanced mixing on the seaward slope of the hollow reduced the potential energy anomaly after maximum ebb. The third peak in stratification during early flood occurred as a result of denser water entering the inlet at mid-depth. This dense water mixed with ambient deep waters increasing the stratification. Lateral shear in the along-channel flow across the hollow allowed trapping of less dense water in the surface layers further increasing stratification.

External Validation of a risk stratification model to assist shared decision making for patients starting renal replacement therapy.

PubMed

Peeters, Patrick; Van Biesen, Wim; Veys, Nic; Lemahieu, Wim; De Moor, Bart; De Meester, Johan

2016-04-07

Shared decision making is nowadays acknowledged as an essential step when deciding on starting renal replacement therapy. Valid risk stratification of prognosis is, besides discussing quality of life, crucial in this regard. We intended to validate a recently published risk stratification model in a large cohort of incident patients starting renal replacement therapy in Flanders. During 3 years (2001-2003), the data set collected for the Nederlandstalige Belgische Vereniging voor Nefrologie (NBVN) registry was expanded with parameters of comorbidity. For all incident patients, the abbreviated REIN score(aREIN), being the REIN score without the parameter "mobility", was calculated, and prognostication of mortality at 3, 6 and 12 month after start of renal replacement therapy (RRT) was evaluated. Three thousand four hundred seventy-two patients started RRT in Flanders during the observation period (mean age 67.6 ± 14.3, 56.7 % men, 33.6 % diabetes). The mean aREIN score was 4.1 ± 2.8, and 56.8, 23.1, 12.6 and 7.4 % of patients had a score of ≤4, 5-6, 7-8 or ≥9 respectively. Mortality at 3, 6 and 12 months was 8.6, 14.1 and 19.6 % in the overall and 13.2, 21.5 and 31.9 % in the group with age >75 respectively. In RoC analysis, the aREIN score had an AUC of 0.74 for prediction of survival at 3, 6 and 12 months. There was an incremental increase in mortality with the aREIN score from 5.6 to 45.8 % mortality at 6 months for those with a score ≤4 or ≥9 respectively. The aREIN score is a useful tool to predict short term prognosis of patients starting renal replacement therapy as based on comorbidity and age, and delivers meaningful discrimination between low and high risk populations. As such, it can be a useful instrument to be incorporated in shared decision making on whether or not start of dialysis is worthwhile.

A new offshore transport mechanism for shoreline-released tracer induced by transient rip currents and stratification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Nirnimesh; Feddersen, Falk

2017-03-01

Offshore transport from the shoreline across the inner shelf of early-stage larvae and pathogens is poorly understood yet is critical for understanding larval fate and dilution of polluted shoreline water. With a novel coupling of a transient rip current (TRC) generating surf zone model and an ocean circulation model, we show that transient rip currents ejected onto a stratified inner shelf induce a new, previously unconsidered offshore transport pathway. For incident waves and stratification typical for Southern California in the fall, this mechanism subducts surf zone-origin tracers and transports them at least 800 m offshore at 1.2 km/d analogous to subduction at ocean fronts. This mechanism requires both TRCs and stratification. As TRCs are ubiquitous and the inner shelf is often stratified, this mechanism may have an important role in exporting early-stage larvae, pathogens, or other tracers onto the shelf.

Chronic myelomonocytic leukemia: 2012 update on diagnosis, risk stratification, and management.

PubMed

Parikh, Sameer A; Tefferi, Ayalew

2012-06-01

Chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) is a clonal hematopoietic stem cell disorder that is classified as a myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasm by the 2008 World Health Organization classification of hematopoietic tumors. It is characterized by absolute monocytosis (>1 × 10(9) L(-1) ) in the peripheral blood that persists for at least 3 months. Patients may present with symptoms related to cytopenias and/or an underlying hypercatabolic state with drenching night sweats, splenomegaly, and weight loss. The diagnosis of CMML rests on a combination of morphologic, histopathologic, and chromosomal abnormalities in the bone marrow, after careful exclusion of other conditions (both malignant and nonmalignant) that can cause monocytosis. Numerous molecular abnormalities have been recently recognized in patients with CMML-unfortunately, no single pathognomonic finding specific to CMML has been identified thus far. The International Prognostic Scoring System for myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) cannot be used to risk stratify patients with CMML because this model excluded patients with a leukocyte count >12 × 10(9) L(-1) . Other risk stratification models such as the MD Anderson prognostic score and Dusseldorf score have been published. In the only model that took karyotype into account, bone marrow blasts ≥ 10%, leukocyte count ≥ 13 × 10(9) L(-1) , hemoglobin < 10 g/dL, platelet count < 100 × 10(9) L(-1) , and presence of trisomy 8, abnormalities of chromosome 7, or complex karyotype were found to be independent predictors of adverse survival. The Food and Drug Administration has approved azacitidine and decitabine for the treatment of patients with CMML based on two pivotal trials in MDS. Novel classes of agents including immunomodulatory drugs, nucleoside analogs, and small-molecule tyrosine kinase inhibitors are being investigated in the treatment of CMML. With the advent of reduced intensity conditioning, an allogeneic stem cell transplant has also become

Systematic Review of Metabolic Syndrome Biomarkers: A Panel for Early Detection, Management, and Risk Stratification in the West Virginian Population

PubMed Central

Srikanthan, Krithika; Feyh, Andrew; Visweshwar, Haresh; Shapiro, Joseph I.; Sodhi, Komal

2016-01-01

Introduction: Metabolic syndrome represents a cluster of related metabolic abnormalities, including central obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, hyperglycemia, and insulin resistance, with central obesity and insulin resistance in particular recognized as causative factors. These metabolic derangements present significant risk factors for cardiovascular disease, which is commonly recognized as the primary clinical outcome, although other outcomes are possible. Metabolic syndrome is a progressive condition that encompasses a wide array of disorders with specific metabolic abnormalities presenting at different times. These abnormalities can be detected and monitored via serum biomarkers. This review will compile a list of promising biomarkers that are associated with metabolic syndrome and this panel can aid in early detection and management of metabolic syndrome in high risk populations, such as in West Virginia. Methods: A literature review was conducted using PubMed, Science Direct, and Google Scholar to search for markers related to metabolic syndrome. Biomarkers searched included adipokines (leptin, adiponectin), neuropeptides (ghrelin), pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, TNF-α), anti-inflammatory cytokines (IL-10), markers of antioxidant status (OxLDL, PON-1, uric acid), and prothrombic factors (PAI-1). Results: According to the literature, the concentrations of pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, TNF-α), markers of pro-oxidant status (OxLDL, uric acid), and prothrombic factors (PAI-1) were elevated in metabolic syndrome. Additionally, leptin concentrations were found to be elevated in metabolic syndrome as well, likely due to leptin resistance. In contrast, concentrations of anti-inflammatory cytokines (IL-10), ghrelin, adiponectin, and antioxidant factors (PON-1) were decreased in metabolic syndrome, and these decreases also correlated with specific disorders within the cluster. Conclusion: Based on the evidence presented within the literature, the

Dynamo Tests for Stratification Below the Core-Mantle Boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, P.; Landeau, M.

2017-12-01

Evidence from seismology, mineral physics, and core dynamics points to a layer with an overall stable stratification in the Earth's outer core, possibly thermal in origin, extending below the core-mantle boundary (CMB) for several hundred kilometers. In contrast, energetic deep mantle convection with elevated heat flux implies locally unstable thermal stratification below the CMB in places, consistent with interpretations of non-dipole geomagnetic field behavior that favor upwelling flows below the CMB. Here, we model the structure of convection and magnetic fields in the core using numerical dynamos with laterally heterogeneous boundary heat flux in order to rationalize this conflicting evidence. Strongly heterogeneous boundary heat flux generates localized convection beneath the CMB that coexists with an overall stable stratification there. Partially stratified dynamos have distinctive time average magnetic field structures. Without stratification or with stratification confined to a thin layer, the octupole component is small and the CMB magnetic field structure includes polar intensity minima. With more extensive stratification, the octupole component is large and the magnetic field structure includes intense patches or high intensity lobes in the polar regions. Comparisons with the time-averaged geomagnetic field are generally favorable for partial stratification in a thin layer but unfavorable for stratification in a thick layer beneath the CMB.

Validation of risk stratification schemes for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation: nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Lip, Gregory Y H; Hansen, Morten Lock; Hansen, Peter Riis; Tolstrup, Janne Schurmann; Lindhardsen, Jesper; Selmer, Christian; Ahlehoff, Ole; Olsen, Anne-Marie Schjerning; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

2011-01-31

To evaluate the individual risk factors composing the CHADS(2) (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke) score and the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc (CHA(2)DS(2)-Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category) score and to calculate the capability of the schemes to predict thromboembolism. Registry based cohort study. Nationwide data on patients admitted to hospital with atrial fibrillation. Population All patients with atrial fibrillation not treated with vitamin K antagonists in Denmark in the period 1997-2006. Stroke and thromboembolism. Of 121,280 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation, 73,538 (60.6%) fulfilled the study inclusion criteria. In patients at "low risk" (score = 0), the rate of thromboembolism per 100 person years was 1.67 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 1.89) with CHADS(2) and 0.78 (0.58 to 1.04) with CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc at one year's follow-up. In patients at "intermediate risk" (score = 1), this rate was 4.75 (4.45 to 5.07) with CHADS(2) and 2.01 (1.70 to 2.36) with CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc. The rate of thromboembolism depended on the individual risk factors composing the scores, and both schemes underestimated the risk associated with previous thromboembolic events. When patients were categorised into low, intermediate, and high risk groups, C statistics at 10 years' follow-up were 0.812 (0.796 to 0.827) with CHADS(2) and 0.888 (0.875 to 0.900) with CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc. The risk associated with a specific risk stratification score depended on the risk factors composing the score. CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc performed better than CHADS(2) in predicting patients at high risk, and those categorised as low risk by CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc were truly at low risk for thromboembolism.

Derivation of genetic biomarkers for cancer risk stratification in Barrett's oesophagus: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Timmer, Margriet R; Martinez, Pierre; Lau, Chiu T; Westra, Wytske M; Calpe, Silvia; Rygiel, Agnieszka M; Rosmolen, Wilda D; Meijer, Sybren L; Ten Kate, Fiebo J W; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G W; Mallant-Hent, Rosalie C; Naber, Anton H J; van Oijen, Arnoud H A M; Baak, Lubbertus C; Scholten, Pieter; Böhmer, Clarisse J M; Fockens, Paul; Maley, Carlo C; Graham, Trevor A; Bergman, Jacques J G H M; Krishnadath, Kausilia K

2016-10-01

The risk of developing adenocarcinoma in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus is low and difficult to predict. Accurate tools for risk stratification are needed to increase the efficiency of surveillance. We aimed to develop a prediction model for progression using clinical variables and genetic markers. In a prospective cohort of patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus, we evaluated six molecular markers: p16, p53, Her-2/neu, 20q, MYC and aneusomy by DNA fluorescence in situ hybridisation on brush cytology specimens. Primary study outcomes were the development of high-grade dysplasia or oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The most predictive clinical variables and markers were determined using Cox proportional-hazards models, receiver operating characteristic curves and a leave-one-out analysis. A total of 428 patients participated (345 men; median age 60 years) with a cumulative follow-up of 2019 patient-years (median 45 months per patient). Of these patients, 22 progressed; nine developed high-grade dysplasia and 13 oesophageal adenocarcinoma. The clinical variables, age and circumferential Barrett's length, and the markers, p16 loss, MYC gain and aneusomy, were significantly associated with progression on univariate analysis. We defined an 'Abnormal Marker Count' that counted abnormalities in p16, MYC and aneusomy, which significantly improved risk prediction beyond using just age and Barrett's length. In multivariate analysis, these three factors identified a high-risk group with an 8.7-fold (95% CI 2.6 to 29.8) increased HR when compared with the low-risk group, with an area under the curve of 0.76 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.86). A prediction model based on age, Barrett's length and the markers p16, MYC and aneusomy determines progression risk in non-dysplastic Barrett's oesophagus. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Principal Stratification — Uses and Limitations

PubMed Central

VanderWeele, Tyler J

2011-01-01

Pearl (2011) asked for the causal inference community to clarify the role of the principal stratification framework in the analysis of causal effects. Here, I argue that the notion of principal stratification has shed light on problems of non-compliance, censoring-by-death, and the analysis of post-infection outcomes; that it may be of use in considering problems of surrogacy but further development is needed; that it is of some use in assessing “direct effects”; but that it is not the appropriate tool for assessing “mediation.” There is nothing within the principal stratification framework that corresponds to a measure of an “indirect” or “mediated” effect. PMID:21841939

Risk stratification of patients with diabetes and the role of sodium glucose co-transporter inhibitors 2 during Ramadan fasting.

PubMed

Adnan, Zaina

2017-09-01

The month of Ramadan represents a golden opportunity for better management of patients with diabetes not only during Ramadan month, but also through the entire year. Pre Ramadan period is crucial for evaluating and preparing patients with diabetes intending to Fast Ramadan. The risk stratification categories should take into consideration patients with diabetes having specific conditions such as nephrotic syndrome who are predisposed to thrombosis independent to their estimated glomerular filtration rate and glycated haemoglobin. Furthermore, population-specific conditions such as nomadic Bedouins living in remote areas should be considered as part of the very high risk category for fasting Ramadan. Published data regarding the use of sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors during Ramadan is very limited. Dapagliflozin was the only agent studied during Ramadan. Therefore, it is suggested to categorize this group of agents differently from other agents such as metformin and incretin based therapy studied vastly during Ramadan. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ultrasound Imaging for Risk Assessment in Atherosclerosis

PubMed Central

Steinl, David C.; Kaufmann, Beat A.

2015-01-01

Atherosclerosis and its consequences like acute myocardial infarction or stroke are highly prevalent in western countries, and the incidence of atherosclerosis is rapidly rising in developing countries. Atherosclerosis is a disease that progresses silently over several decades before it results in the aforementioned clinical consequences. Therefore, there is a clinical need for imaging methods to detect the early stages of atherosclerosis and to better risk stratify patients. In this review, we will discuss how ultrasound imaging can contribute to the detection and risk stratification of atherosclerosis by (a) detecting advanced and early plaques; (b) evaluating the biomechanical consequences of atherosclerosis in the vessel wall; (c) assessing plaque neovascularization and (d) imaging the expression of disease-relevant molecules using molecular imaging. PMID:25938969

Eigenmode resonance in a two-layer stratification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanda, Isao; Linden, P. F.

2002-06-01

In this paper, we study the velocity field at the density interface of a two-layer stratification system when the flow is forced at the mid-depth of the lower layer by the source sink forcing method. It is known that, in a sufficiently strong linear stratification, the source sink forcing in certain configurations produces a single-vortex pattern which corresponds to the lowest eigenmode of the Helmholtz equation (Kanda & Linden 2001). Two types of forcing configuration are used for the two-layer experiments: one that leads to a steady single-vortex pattern in a linear stratification, and one that results in an unsteady irregular state. Strong single-vortex patterns appear intermittently for the former configurations despite the absence of stratification at the forcing height. When the single-vortex pattern occurs at the density interface, a similar flow field extends down to the forcing height. The behaviour is explained as the coupling of the resonant eigenmode at the interface with the horizontal component of the forcing jets. The results show that stratification can organise a flow, even though it is forced by an apparently random three-dimensional forcing.

Major Depressive Disorder and Bipolar Disorder Predispose Youth to Accelerated Atherosclerosis and Early Cardiovascular Disease: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

PubMed

Goldstein, Benjamin I; Carnethon, Mercedes R; Matthews, Karen A; McIntyre, Roger S; Miller, Gregory E; Raghuveer, Geetha; Stoney, Catherine M; Wasiak, Hank; McCrindle, Brian W

2015-09-08

In the 2011 "Expert Panel on Integrated Guidelines for Cardiovascular Health and Risk Reduction in Children and Adolescents," several medical conditions among youth were identified that predispose to accelerated atherosclerosis and early cardiovascular disease (CVD), and risk stratification and management strategies for youth with these conditions were elaborated. Major depressive disorder (MDD) and bipolar disorder (BD) among youth satisfy the criteria set for, and therefore merit inclusion among, Expert Panel tier II moderate-risk conditions. The combined prevalence of MDD and BD among adolescents in the United States is ≈10%, at least 10 times greater than the prevalence of the existing moderate-risk conditions combined. The high prevalence of MDD and BD underscores the importance of positioning these diseases alongside other pediatric diseases previously identified as moderate risk for CVD. The overall objective of this statement is to increase awareness and recognition of MDD and BD among youth as moderate-risk conditions for early CVD. To achieve this objective, the primary specific aims of this statement are to (1) summarize evidence that MDD and BD are tier II moderate-risk conditions associated with accelerated atherosclerosis and early CVD and (2) position MDD and BD as tier II moderate-risk conditions that require the application of risk stratification and management strategies in accordance with Expert Panel recommendations. In this scientific statement, there is an integration of the various factors that putatively underlie the association of MDD and BD with CVD, including pathophysiological mechanisms, traditional CVD risk factors, behavioral and environmental factors, and psychiatric medications. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Quantitative Stratification of Diffuse Parenchymal Lung Diseases

PubMed Central

Raghunath, Sushravya; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A.; Maldonado, Fabien; Peikert, Tobias; Moua, Teng; Ryu, Jay H.; Bartholmai, Brian J.; Robb, Richard A.

2014-01-01

Diffuse parenchymal lung diseases (DPLDs) are characterized by widespread pathological changes within the pulmonary tissue that impair the elasticity and gas exchange properties of the lungs. Clinical-radiological diagnosis of these diseases remains challenging and their clinical course is characterized by variable disease progression. These challenges have hindered the introduction of robust objective biomarkers for patient-specific prediction based on specific phenotypes in clinical practice for patients with DPLD. Therefore, strategies facilitating individualized clinical management, staging and identification of specific phenotypes linked to clinical disease outcomes or therapeutic responses are urgently needed. A classification schema consistently reflecting the radiological, clinical (lung function and clinical outcomes) and pathological features of a disease represents a critical need in modern pulmonary medicine. Herein, we report a quantitative stratification paradigm to identify subsets of DPLD patients with characteristic radiologic patterns in an unsupervised manner and demonstrate significant correlation of these self-organized disease groups with clinically accepted surrogate endpoints. The proposed consistent and reproducible technique could potentially transform diagnostic staging, clinical management and prognostication of DPLD patients as well as facilitate patient selection for clinical trials beyond the ability of current radiological tools. In addition, the sequential quantitative stratification of the type and extent of parenchymal process may allow standardized and objective monitoring of disease, early assessment of treatment response and mortality prediction for DPLD patients. PMID:24676019

The role of copeptin as a diagnostic and prognostic biomarker for risk stratification in the emergency department

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis is activated in response to stress. One of the activated hypothalamic hormones is arginine vasopressin, a hormone involved in hemodynamics and osmoregulation. Copeptin, the C-terminal part of the arginine vasopressin precursor peptide, is a sensitive and stable surrogate marker for arginine vasopressin release. Measurement of copeptin levels has been shown to be useful in a variety of clinical scenarios, particularly as a prognostic marker in patients with acute diseases such as lower respiratory tract infection, heart disease and stroke. The measurement of copeptin levels may provide crucial information for risk stratification in a variety of clinical situations. As such, the emergency department appears to be the ideal setting for its potential use. This review summarizes the recent progress towards determining the prognostic and diagnostic value of copeptin in the emergency department. PMID:22264220

Selecting postoperative adjuvant systemic therapy for early stage breast cancer: A critical assessment of commercially available gene expression assays

PubMed Central

Schuur, Eric; Angel Aristizabal, Javier; Bargallo Rocha, Juan Enrique; Cabello, Cesar; Elizalde, Roberto; García‐Estévez, Laura; Gomez, Henry L.; Katz, Artur; Nuñez De Pierro, Aníbal

2017-01-01

Risk stratification of patients with early stage breast cancer may support adjuvant chemotherapy decision‐making. This review details the development and validation of six multi‐gene classifiers, each of which claims to provide useful prognostic and possibly predictive information for early stage breast cancer patients. A careful assessment is presented of each test's analytical validity, clinical validity, and clinical utility, as well as the quality of evidence supporting its use. PMID:28211064

Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome Without Diabetes or Cardiovascular Disease: Usefulness of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score.

PubMed

Masson, Walter; Epstein, Teo; Huerín, Melina; Lobo, Lorenzo Martín; Molinero, Graciela; Angel, Adriana; Masson, Gerardo; Millán, Diana; De Francesca, Salvador; Vitagliano, Laura; Cafferata, Alberto; Losada, Pablo

2017-09-01

The estimated cardiovascular risk determined by the different risk scores, could be heterogeneous in patients with metabolic syndrome without diabetes or vascular disease. This risk stratification could be improved by detecting subclinical carotid atheromatosis. To estimate the cardiovascular risk measured by different scores in patients with metabolic syndrome and analyze its association with the presence of carotid plaque. Non-diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome (Adult Treatment Panel III definition) without cardiovascular disease were enrolled. The Framingham score, the Reynolds score, the new score proposed by the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator were calculated. Prevalence of carotid plaque was determined by ultrasound examination. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed. A total of 238 patients were enrolled. Most patients were stratified as "low risk" by Framingham score (64%) and Reynolds score (70.1%). Using the 2013 ACC/AHA score, 45.3% of the population had a risk ≥7.5%. A significant correlation was found between classic scores but the agreement (concordance) was moderate. The correlation between classical scores and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator was poor. Overall, the prevalence of carotid plaque was 28.2%. The continuous metabolic syndrome score used in our study showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque (area under the curve 0.752). In this population, the calculated cardiovascular risk was heterogenic. The prevalence of carotid plaque was high. The Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque.

Stratificational Grammar.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algeo, John

1968-01-01

According to the author, most grammarians have been writing stratificational grammars without knowing it because they have dealt with units that are related to one another, but not simply as a whole to its parts, or as a class to its members. The question, then, is not whether a grammar is stratified but whether it is explicitly stratified. This…

High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin and the Risk Stratification of Patients With Renal Impairment Presenting With Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome

PubMed Central

Miller-Hodges, Eve; Anand, Atul; Shah, Anoop S.V.; Chapman, Andrew R.; Gallacher, Peter; Lee, Kuan Ken; Farrah, Tariq; Halbesma, Nynke; Blackmur, James P.; Newby, David E.; Mills, Nicholas L.

2018-01-01

Background: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin testing may improve the risk stratification and diagnosis of myocardial infarction, but concentrations can be challenging to interpret in patients with renal impairment, and the effectiveness of testing in this group is uncertain. Methods: In a prospective multicenter study of consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, we evaluated the performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I in those with and without renal impairment (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60mL/min/1.73m2). The negative predictive value and sensitivity of troponin concentrations below the risk stratification threshold (5 ng/L) at presentation were reported for a primary outcome of index type 1 myocardial infarction, or type 1 myocardial infarction or cardiac death at 30 days. The positive predictive value and specificity at the 99th centile diagnostic threshold (16 ng/L in women, 34 ng/L in men) was determined for index type 1 myocardial infarction. Subsequent type 1 myocardial infarction and cardiac death were reported at 1 year. Results: Of 4726 patients identified, 904 (19%) had renal impairment. Troponin concentrations <5 ng/L at presentation identified 17% of patients with renal impairment as low risk for the primary outcome (negative predictive value, 98.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 96.0%–99.7%; sensitivity 98.9%; 95%CI, 97.5%–99.9%), in comparison with 56% without renal impairment (P<0.001) with similar performance (negative predictive value, 99.7%; 95% CI, 99.4%–99.9%; sensitivity 98.4%; 95% CI, 97.2%–99.4%). The positive predictive value and specificity at the 99th centile were lower in patients with renal impairment at 50.0% (95% CI, 45.2%–54.8%) and 70.9% (95% CI, 67.5%–74.2%), respectively, in comparison with 62.4% (95% CI, 58.8%–65.9%) and 92.1% (95% CI, 91.2%–93.0%) in those without. At 1 year, patients with troponin concentrations >99th centile and renal impairment were at greater risk of

Lifetime risks for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: multivariable risk stratification.

PubMed

Vlak, Monique H M; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Greebe, Paut; Greving, Jacoba P; Algra, Ale

2013-06-01

The overall incidence of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) in western populations is around 9 per 100 000 person-years, which confers to a lifetime risk of around half per cent. Risk factors for aSAH are usually expressed as relative risks and suggest that absolute risks vary considerably according to risk factor profiles, but such estimates are lacking. We aimed to estimate incidence and lifetime risks of aSAH according to risk factor profiles. We used data from 250 patients admitted with aSAH and 574 sex-matched and age-matched controls, who were randomly retrieved from general practitioners files. We determined independent prognostic factors with multivariable logistic regression analyses and assessed discriminatory performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Based on the prognostic model we predicted incidences and lifetime risks of aSAH for different risk factor profiles. The four strongest independent predictors for aSAH, namely current smoking (OR 6.0; 95% CI 4.1 to 8.6), a positive family history for aSAH (4.0; 95% CI 2.3 to 7.0), hypertension (2.4; 95% CI 1.5 to 3.8) and hypercholesterolaemia (0.2; 95% CI 0.1 to 0.4), were used in the final prediction model. This model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.76). Depending on sex, age and the four predictors, the incidence of aSAH ranged from 0.4/100 000 to 298/100 000 person-years and lifetime risk between 0.02% and 7.2%. The incidence and lifetime risk of aSAH in the general population varies widely according to risk factor profiles. Whether persons with high risks benefit from screening should be assessed in cost-effectiveness studies.

AKT1 provides an essential survival signal required for differentiation and stratification of primary human keratinocytes.

PubMed

Thrash, Barry R; Menges, Craig W; Pierce, Robert H; McCance, Dennis J

2006-04-28

Keratinocyte differentiation and stratification are complex processes involving multiple signaling pathways, which convert a basal proliferative cell into an inviable rigid squame. Loss of attachment to the basement membrane triggers keratinocyte differentiation, while in other epithelial cells, detachment from the extracellular matrix leads to rapid programmed cell death or anoikis. The potential role of AKT in providing a survival signal necessary for stratification and differentiation of primary human keratinocytes was investigated. AKT activity increased during keratinocyte differentiation and was attributed to the specific activation of AKT1 and AKT2. Targeted reduction of AKT1 expression, but not AKT2, by RNA interference resulted in an abnormal epidermis in organotypic skin cultures with a thin parabasal region and a pronounced but disorganized cornified layer. This abnormal stratification was due to significant cell death in the suprabasal layers and was alleviated by caspase inhibition. Normal expression patterns of both early and late markers of keratinocyte differentiation were also disrupted, producing a poorly developed stratum corneum.

A reconceptualization of age stratification in China.

PubMed

Yin, P; Lai, K H

1983-09-01

Using the concepts of age stratification theory--age effect, cohort effect, and subcohort differences--this paper provides a new perspective on age stratification in China. Currently, the literature suggests that the status of elderly people declined after the Communist Revolution and will further decline with modernization. We discuss the problems with this perspective and argue, instead, that the status of elderly adults did not decline for the majority of the aged during the Maoist years. Rather, the most important change in the age stratification system during the Maoist years was the change in the criterion of age stratification--from age differences to cohort and subcohort differences. Furthermore, the subcohort of elderly adults who suffered the most status decline during the Maoist years--the bourgeoisie--may actually enjoy an increase in status with the recent modernization impetus. Research suggestions from this new perspective are discussed.

Stratification, Sediment Transport, and the Early Wet Surface of Meridiani Planum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grotzinger, J. P.; Athena Science Team

2004-12-01

Several stratification styles are present in the outcrops investigated by the Opportunity rover at Meridiani Planum. These include planar lamination, low-angle cross-stratification, cross-bedding, ripple cross-lamination, and crinkly and undulatory lamination. Planar lamination and low angle stratification are well-developed in several locations, particularly at Slickrock and Shoemakers Patio in Eagle crater and at Karatepe in Endurance crater. MI images at Slickrock show "pinstripe" lamination where individual laminae can be single-grain thick layers, suggestive of eolian sedimentation. At Shoemaker's Patio, a single cross-bed set with thickness of 5-7 cm is preserved. At Burn's Cliff, in Endurance crater, a single cross-bed set of up to several meters thickness is preserved. In contrast, ripple cross-lamination with festoon geometry is present at several locations within Eagle crater including Last Chance, the Dells, and in an isolated rock (Scoop) on the southwest rim of the crater. Ripple cross-laminae sets are 0.8 to 1.7 cm thick. In the case of Scoop, the sets are possibly climbing. Grain size appears to range from 0.1 to 0.8 mm in diameter. The cross-bedding preserved at Eagle crater suggests both eolian and subaqeous environments. The set at Shoemaker's patio represents deposition from either subaerial or subaqeous dunes. The thicker, meter-scale set at Burns Cliff is most consistent with transport by eolian dunes. In contrast, the small-scale festoon cross-laminae at Eagle crater are indicative of sediment transport in subaqueous ripples. The reconstructed size of former bedforms is inferred to be only a few cm, and therefore inconsistent with eolian dunes which commonly have significantly larger minimum amplitudes. Yet the cross-lamination is significantly larger and of differing geometry from the climbing translatent cross-strata produced by wind ripples. Thus, the size of bedforms that produced the cm-scale cross-laminae preserved at Eagle crater occupy

Predicting Readmission at Early Hospitalization Using Electronic Clinical Data: An Early Readmission Risk Score.

PubMed

Tabak, Ying P; Sun, Xiaowu; Nunez, Carlos M; Gupta, Vikas; Johannes, Richard S

2017-03-01

Identifying patients at high risk for readmission early during hospitalization may aid efforts in reducing readmissions. We sought to develop an early readmission risk predictive model using automated clinical data available at hospital admission. We developed an early readmission risk model using a derivation cohort and validated the model with a validation cohort. We used a published Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score as an aggregated measure of clinical severity at admission and the number of hospital discharges in the previous 90 days as a measure of disease progression. We then evaluated the administrative data-enhanced model by adding principal and secondary diagnoses and other variables. We examined the c-statistic change when additional variables were added to the model. There were 1,195,640 adult discharges from 70 hospitals with 39.8% male and the median age of 63 years (first and third quartile: 43, 78). The 30-day readmission rate was 11.9% (n=142,211). The early readmission model yielded a graded relationship of readmission and the Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score and the number of previous discharges within 90 days. The model c-statistic was 0.697 with good calibration. When administrative variables were added to the model, the c-statistic increased to 0.722. Automated clinical data can generate a readmission risk score early at hospitalization with fair discrimination. It may have applied value to aid early care transition. Adding administrative data increases predictive accuracy. The administrative data-enhanced model may be used for hospital comparison and outcome research.

Risk Stratification by Self-Measured Home Blood Pressure across Categories of Conventional Blood Pressure: A Participant-Level Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Asayama, Kei; Thijs, Lutgarde; Brguljan-Hitij, Jana; Niiranen, Teemu J.; Hozawa, Atsushi; Boggia, José; Aparicio, Lucas S.; Hara, Azusa; Johansson, Jouni K.; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Tzourio, Christophe; Stergiou, George S.; Sandoya, Edgardo; Tsuji, Ichiro; Jula, Antti M.; Imai, Yutaka; Staessen, Jan A.

2014-01-01

Background The Global Burden of Diseases Study 2010 reported that hypertension is worldwide the leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease, causing 9.4 million deaths annually. We examined to what extent self-measurement of home blood pressure (HBP) refines risk stratification across increasing categories of conventional blood pressure (CBP). Methods and Findings This meta-analysis included 5,008 individuals randomly recruited from five populations (56.6% women; mean age, 57.1 y). All were not treated with antihypertensive drugs. In multivariable analyses, hazard ratios (HRs) associated with 10-mm Hg increases in systolic HBP were computed across CBP categories, using the following systolic/diastolic CBP thresholds (in mm Hg): optimal, <120/<80; normal, 120–129/80–84; high-normal, 130–139/85–89; mild hypertension, 140–159/90–99; and severe hypertension, ≥160/≥100. Over 8.3 y, 522 participants died, and 414, 225, and 194 had cardiovascular, cardiac, and cerebrovascular events, respectively. In participants with optimal or normal CBP, HRs for a composite cardiovascular end point associated with a 10-mm Hg higher systolic HBP were 1.28 (1.01–1.62) and 1.22 (1.00–1.49), respectively. At high-normal CBP and in mild hypertension, the HRs were 1.24 (1.03–1.49) and 1.20 (1.06–1.37), respectively, for all cardiovascular events and 1.33 (1.07–1.65) and 1.30 (1.09–1.56), respectively, for stroke. In severe hypertension, the HRs were not significant (p≥0.20). Among people with optimal, normal, and high-normal CBP, 67 (5.0%), 187 (18.4%), and 315 (30.3%), respectively, had masked hypertension (HBP≥130 mm Hg systolic or ≥85 mm Hg diastolic). Compared to true optimal CBP, masked hypertension was associated with a 2.3-fold (1.5–3.5) higher cardiovascular risk. A limitation was few data from low- and middle-income countries. Conclusions HBP substantially refines risk stratification at CBP levels assumed to carry no or only mildly increased

Risk stratification of patients with severe heart failure awaiting heart transplantation-prospective national registry POLKARD HF.

PubMed

Zieliński, T; Browarek, A; Zembala, M; Sadowski, J; Zakliczyński, M; Przybylowski, P; Roguski, K; Kosakowska, A B; Korewicki, J

2009-10-01

Most methods used in the risk assessment of heart transplant candidates do not include new biomarkers. The aim of the study was to examine the value of NTproBNP and hsCRP and their combined use together with HFSS score in the risk assessment of patients with heart failure enlisted for heart transplantation. Data of 658 patients enlisted for heart transplantation in all active transplantation centers were stored in a prospective registry. The composite end point-death or urgent transplantation was recorded during the follow-up. Death or urgent transplantation was recorded in 161 (24%) of pts. 102 (15%) patients died and 59 (9%) were transplanted urgently. Kaplan-Meier curves for risk of death or urgent transplantation where highly significant when pts were stratified by the quartiles of NT proBNP (P < .000001) or quartiles according to the hsCRP level on admission (P < .002). In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, the significance was observed for NTproBNP (P < .01) and HFSS (P < .02), and borderline significance for hsCRP (P = .057). When ROC analyses of the area under the curve (AUC) values were considered, AUC area was for HFSS - 0.645, for NTproBNP - 0.653 and for hsCRP - 0.566. When all those variables were included together in the model, the AUC value rose to 0.6943. Based on those results a weighted risk model with all three parameters was proposed. HFSS, NTproBNP and hsCRP levels are independent stratification variables of survival or need for urgent heart transplantation. Their predictive value is moderately increased when they are analyzed together.

Novel biparametric MRI and targeted biopsy improves risk stratification in men with a clinical suspicion of prostate cancer (IMPROD Trial).

PubMed

Jambor, Ivan; Boström, Peter J; Taimen, Pekka; Syvänen, Kari; Kähkönen, Esa; Kallajoki, Markku; Perez, Ileana Montoya; Kauko, Tommi; Matomäki, Jaakko; Ettala, Otto; Merisaari, Harri; Kiviniemi, Aida; Dean, Peter B; Aronen, Hannu J

2017-10-01

To evaluate the role of a 3T biparametric magnetic resonance imaging (bpMRI), T 2 -weighted imaging, and three separate diffusion-weighted imaging acquisitions combined with targeted biopsy (TB) for improving risk stratification of men with elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA). Between March 2013 and February 2015, 175 men with a clinical suspicion of prostate cancer (PCa) were offered bpMRI (NCT01864135) based on a suspicion of PCa (two repeated PSA measurements in the range 2.5-20.0 ng/ml and/or abnormal digital rectal examination). Men with an equivocal to high suspicion of PCa had two TBs of the dominant lesion using cognitive ultrasound guidance, followed by systematic biopsy (SB). Men with a low to very low suspicion had only SB. In total, 161 (161/175, 92%) prospectively enrolled men completed the trial and were included in the final analyses. The primary endpoint of the trial was the cancer detection rate (CDR) of TB and SB. Clinically significant cancer (SPCa) was defined as Gleason score ≥3 + 4. TB compared with SB had higher CDR for SPCa (45%, 72/161 vs. 39%, 63/161, respectively; P > 0.05) and a lower CDR for Gleason score 3 + 3 (8%, 15/161 vs. 16%, 30/161; P < 0.05). Restricting biopsy to men with equivocal to highly suspicious bpMRI findings would have resulted in a 24% (38/161) reduction in the number of men undergoing biopsy, while missing 4 (2%) with SPCa. All anonymized datasets, including bpMRI reports and follow up information, are freely available on the trial server. Prebiopsy bpMRI and TB in men with a clinical suspicion of PCa improved risk stratification. 1 Technical Efficacy: Stage 5 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2017;46:1089-1095. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

[Assessment of Heavy/ Light Chain Pairs of Immunoglobulin (Hevylite assay) -  Benefit for Stratification of Multiple Myeloma?].

PubMed

Ščudla, V; Lochaman, P; Pika, T; Zapletalová, J; Minařík, J; Bačovský, J

2015-01-01

according to ISS and to stage 1-3 according to A L and L model was in IgG vs IgA isotype significantly different (p < 0.0001- 0.030). Staging system according to ISS had proportional distribution of stages 1- 3, whereas in the A L model prevailed in IgA and IgG isotype risk category 2, ie. intermediate-risk (47.3 and 44.7%) and in the L model prevailed risk category 3, ie. high-risk (41.5 and 52.6%) with low count of category 1, ie. low- risk category (23.4 and 10.5%). McNemar- Bowker test of symmetry showed in both types of MM the highest concordance between the stratification according to D S and L in category 3, ie. high-risk (31.9 vs. 28.9%) with overall accord only in 53.2 and 42.1% and with significant shift in the case of IgG isotype only (p = 0.036). In IgG and IgA isotype there was an overall concordance in the distribution of categories 1- 3 according to ISS vs. A L (62.4 and 63.2%) but with significant shift of the stratification (p = 0.002 and 0.028). In the case of IgG and IgA isotype there was a close relationship between the models A L and L (64.5 and 81.6%) with significant stratification shift (p < 0.0001 and 0.030). The new stratification models for MM according to A L and L are easily practically applicable, with close relationship to principal PF but they need separate assessment of IgG and IgA isotypes of MM. The choice of optimal model for routine practice needs a validation study aimed at progression free survival and overall survival.

Development of an Echocardiographic Risk-Stratification Index to Predict Heart Failure in Patients With Stable Coronary Artery Disease

PubMed Central

Stevens, Steven M.; Farzaneh-Far, Ramin; Na, Beeya; Whooley, Mary A.; Schiller, Nelson B.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVES We sought to determine which transthoracic echocardiographic (TTE) measurements most strongly predict heart failure (HF) and to develop an index for risk stratification in outpatients with coronary artery disease (CAD). BACKGROUND Many TTE measurements have been shown to be predictive of HF, and they might be useful if aggregated into a risk-prediction index. METHODS We performed TTE in 1,024 outpatients with stable CAD enrolled in the Heart and Soul study and followed them for 4.4 years. With Cox proportional hazard models, we evaluated the association of 15 TTE measurements with subsequent HF hospital stay. Those measurements that independently predicted HF were combined into an index. Variables were defined as normal or abnormal on the basis of dichotomous cutoffs determined from the American Society of Echocardiography. Abnormal variables in each measurement were assigned points on the basis of strength of association with HF. RESULTS Of the 15 variables, 5 measurements were independent predictors of HF: left ventricular mass index (LVMI), left atrial volume index (LAVI), mitral regurgitation (MR), left ventricular outflow tract velocity-time integral (VTILVOT), and diastolic dysfunction (DD). In multivariate analysis, each of the 5 measurements independently predicted HF: LVMI >90 g/m2 (hazard ratio [HR]: 4.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.3 to 7.2, p < 0.0001); pseudo-normal or restrictive DD (HR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.8 to 4.5, p < 0.0001); VTILVOT <22 mm (HR: 2.2; 95% CI: 1.4 to 3.5, p = 0.0004); mild, moderate, or severe MR (HR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.2 to 2.8, p = 0.009); and LAVI >29 ml/m2 (HR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.0 to 2.5, p = 0.06). Combining these measurements, the Heart Failure Index ranged from 0 to 8, representing risk as follows: 3 points for LVMI, 2 points for DD, and 1 point for VTILVOT, MR, and LAVI. Among participants with 0 to 2 points: 4% had HF hospital stays (reference); 3 to 4 points: 10% (HR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.3 to 4.4, p = 0.003); 5 to 6 points

Stratification and mobility in contemporary Egypt.

PubMed

Nagi, Saad Z; Nagi, Omar

2011-01-01

The objectives in this statement are to characterize and explain the patterns of change in stratification and mobility in Egypt, over the last half century, by placing them within conceptual, explanatory, and historical contexts. First, literature relevant to the primary concepts of "class" and "status", is reviewed. Second, four institutions whose influence is fundamental in shaping these patterns are identified to form an explanatory context: family, polity, economy, and education. And third, an historical account is presented to demonstrate the interplay of these institutions and their consequences for stratification and mobility. For this, four periods are identified that are marked by change in the dominance of institutions and their corresponding influence on stratification and mobility. In addition to data available in relevant literature, this analysis utilizes primary data generated through a national probability household survey.

Call for Standardized Definitions of Osteoarthritis and Risk Stratification for Clinical Trials and Clinical Use

PubMed Central

Kraus, Virginia Byers; Blanco, Francisco J.; Englund, Martin; Karsdal, Morten A.; Lohmander, L. Stefan

2015-01-01

Osteoarthritis is a heterogeneous disorder. The goals of this review are (1) To stimulate use of standardized nomenclature for osteoarthritis (OA) that could serve as building blocks for describing OA and defining OA phenotypes, in short to provide unifying disease concepts for a heterogeneous disorder; and (2) To stimulate establishment of ROAD (Risk of Osteoarthritis Development) and ROAP (Risk of Osteoarthritis Progression) tools analogous to the FRAX™ instrument for predicting risk of fracture in osteoporosis; and (3) To stimulate formulation of tools for identifying disease in its early preradiographic and/or molecular stages -- REDI (Reliable Early Disease Identification). Consensus around more sensitive and specific diagnostic criteria for OA could spur development of disease modifying therapies for this entity that has proved so recalcitrant to date. We fully acknowledge that as we move forward, we expect to develop more sophisticated definitions, terminology and tools. PMID:25865392

Volumetry based biomarker speed of growth: Quantifying the change of total tumor volume in whole-body magnetic resonance imaging over time improves risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

PubMed

Wennmann, Markus; Kintzelé, Laurent; Piraud, Marie; Menze, Bjoern H; Hielscher, Thomas; Hofmanninger, Johannes; Wagner, Barbara; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Merz, Maximilian; Hillengass, Jens; Langs, Georg; Weber, Marc-André

2018-05-18

The purpose of this study was to improve risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients, introducing new 3D-volumetry based imaging biomarkers derived from whole-body MRI. Two-hundred twenty whole-body MRIs from 63 patients with smoldering multiple myeloma were retrospectively analyzed and all focal lesions >5mm were manually segmented for volume quantification. The imaging biomarkers total tumor volume, speed of growth (development of the total tumor volume over time), number of focal lesions, development of the number of focal lesions over time and the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group were compared, taking 2-year progression rate, sensitivity and false positive rate into account. Speed of growth, using a cutoff of 114mm 3 /month, was able to isolate a high-risk group with a 2-year progression rate of 82.5%. Additionally, it showed by far the highest sensitivity in this study and in comparison to other biomarkers in the literature, detecting 63.2% of patients who progress within 2 years. Furthermore, its false positive rate (8.7%) was much lower compared to the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group. Therefore, speed of growth is the preferable imaging biomarker for risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

The influence of atmospheric stratification on scatterometer data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Louis, Jean-Francois; Hoffman, Ross N.

1989-01-01

The effects of atmospheric stratification and the stability of the atmospheric stratification on the scatterometer data measuring surface winds over the ocean were investigated using the boundary layer model developed by Louis (1979). A variational analysis method is proposed, which allows direct assimilation of scatterometer data. It is shown that the effect of the stability of atmospheric stratification on the wind increment is relatively small. However, it is a systematic effect, and neglecting it would consistently underestimate the winds in stable regions.

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease heterogeneity: challenges for health risk assessment, stratification and management.

PubMed

Roca, Josep; Vargas, Claudia; Cano, Isaac; Selivanov, Vitaly; Barreiro, Esther; Maier, Dieter; Falciani, Francesco; Wagner, Peter; Cascante, Marta; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Kalko, Susana; De Mas, Igor; Tegnér, Jesper; Escarrabill, Joan; Agustí, Alvar; Gomez-Cabrero, David

2014-11-28

Heterogeneity in clinical manifestations and disease progression in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) lead to consequences for patient health risk assessment, stratification and management. Implicit with the classical "spill over" hypothesis is that COPD heterogeneity is driven by the pulmonary events of the disease. Alternatively, we hypothesized that COPD heterogeneities result from the interplay of mechanisms governing three conceptually different phenomena: 1) pulmonary disease, 2) systemic effects of COPD and 3) co-morbidity clustering, each of them with their own dynamics. To explore the potential of a systems analysis of COPD heterogeneity focused on skeletal muscle dysfunction and on co-morbidity clustering aiming at generating predictive modeling with impact on patient management. To this end, strategies combining deterministic modeling and network medicine analyses of the Biobridge dataset were used to investigate the mechanisms of skeletal muscle dysfunction. An independent data driven analysis of co-morbidity clustering examining associated genes and pathways was performed using a large dataset (ICD9-CM data from Medicare, 13 million people). Finally, a targeted network analysis using the outcomes of the two approaches (skeletal muscle dysfunction and co-morbidity clustering) explored shared pathways between these phenomena. (1) Evidence of abnormal regulation of skeletal muscle bioenergetics and skeletal muscle remodeling showing a significant association with nitroso-redox disequilibrium was observed in COPD; (2) COPD patients presented higher risk for co-morbidity clustering than non-COPD patients increasing with ageing; and, (3) the on-going targeted network analyses suggests shared pathways between skeletal muscle dysfunction and co-morbidity clustering. The results indicate the high potential of a systems approach to address COPD heterogeneity. Significant knowledge gaps were identified that are relevant to shape strategies aiming at

Multislice computed tomography coronary angiography for risk stratification in patients with an intermediate pretest likelihood.

PubMed

van Werkhoven, J M; Gaemperli, O; Schuijf, J D; Jukema, J W; Kroft, L J; Leschka, S; Alkadhi, H; Valenta, I; Pundziute, G; de Roos, A; van der Wall, E E; Kaufmann, P A; Bax, J J

2009-10-01

To assess whether multislice computed tomography coronary angiography (MSCTA) may be useful for risk stratification of patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) at intermediate pretest likelihood according to Diamond and Forrester. MSCTA images were evaluated for the presence of significant CAD in 316 patients with suspected CAD (60% male, average (SD) age 57 (11) years) and an intermediate pretest likelihood according to Diamond and Forrester. Patients were followed up to determine the occurrence of an event. A combined end point of all-cause mortality, non-fatal infarction and unstable angina requiring revascularisation. Significant CAD was seen in 89 patients (28%), whereas normal MSCTA or non-significant CAD was seen in the remaining 227 (72%) patients. During follow-up (median 621 days (25-75th centile 408-835) an event occurred in 13 patients (4.8%). The annualised event rate was 0.8% in patients with normal MSCT, 2.2% in patients with non-significant CAD and 6.5% in patients with significant CAD. Moreover, MSCTA remained a significant predictor (p<0.05) of events after multivariate correction (hazard ratio = 3.460 (95% CI 1.142 to 10.480). The results suggest that in patients with an intermediate pretest likelihood, MSCTA is highly effective in re-stratifying patients into either a low or high post-test risk group. These results further emphasise the usefulness of non-invasive imaging with MSCTA in this patient population.

Risk-adjusted outcome prediction with initial post-cardiac arrest illness severity: implications for cardiac arrest survivors being considered for early invasive strategy.

PubMed

Reynolds, Joshua C; Rittenberger, Jon C; Toma, Catalin; Callaway, Clifton W

2014-09-01

Early CATH is recommended for cardiac arrest survivors with STEMI or suspicion for coronary ischemia. Comatose patients are at risk of death from neurologic injury irrespective of CATH, but post-procedural mortality data do not distinguish between causes of death. Pittsburgh Post Cardiac Arrest Category (PCAC) is a validated, early post-cardiac arrest illness severity score based on initial cardiopulmonary dysfunction and neurologic examination. We evaluated the association between early coronary angiography (CATH) and patient outcome after adjusting for initial post-cardiac arrest illness severity. Retrospective study of a prospective cardiac arrest database at a single site. We included 1011 adult survivors of non-traumatic in-hospital or out-of-hospital cardiac arrest from 2005 to 2012, then stratified by PCAC and immediate CATH. Logistic regression tested the association between immediate CATH and patient outcomes, adjusting for PCAC. Overall, 273 (27%) received immediate CATH. Patients with immediate CATH had higher proportions of good outcome in all but the most severe stratum of illness severity (11% vs. 6%; p=0.11). The primary mode of death was neurologic for all but the least severe stratum. Adjusting for PCAC, immediate CATH was associated with favorable discharge disposition (OR 1.92; 95%CI 1.20, 3.07; p=0.006) and modified Rankin scale (OR 1.95; 95%CI 1.12, 3.38; p=0.02). The benefit of CATH is less clear in the most severe stratum of illness, in which the high risk of mortality is primarily from neurologic causes. PCAC is a risk-stratification tool that provides pre-procedural risk-adjusted outcome prediction for post-cardiac arrest patients being evaluated for immediate CATH. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

EARLY LIFE RISKS, ANTISOCIAL TENDENCIES, AND PRETEEN DELINQUENCY.

PubMed

Staff, Jeremy; Whichard, Corey; Siennick, Sonja; Maggs, Jennifer

2015-11-01

Early age-of-onset delinquency and substance use confer a major risk for continued criminality, alcohol and drug abuse, and other serious difficulties throughout the life course. Our objective is to examine the developmental roots of preteen delinquency and substance use. Using nationally representative longitudinal data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study ( n = 13,221), we examine the influence of early childhood developmental and family risks on latent pathways of antisocial tendencies from ages 3 to 7, and the influence of those pathways on property crime and substance use by age 11. We identified a normative, non-antisocial pathway; a pathway marked by oppositional behavior and fighting; a pathway marked by impulsivity and inattention; and a rare pathway characterized by a wide range of antisocial tendencies. Children with developmental and family risks that emerged by age 3-specifically difficult infant temperament, low cognitive ability, weak parental closeness, and disadvantaged family background-face increased odds of antisocial tendencies. There is minimal overlap between the risk factors for early antisocial tendencies and those for preteen delinquency. Children on an antisocial pathway are more likely to engage in preteen delinquency and substance use by age 11, even after accounting for early life risk factors.

EARLY LIFE RISKS, ANTISOCIAL TENDENCIES, AND PRETEEN DELINQUENCY*

PubMed Central

Staff, Jeremy; Whichard, Corey; Siennick, Sonja; Maggs, Jennifer

2015-01-01

Early age-of-onset delinquency and substance use confer a major risk for continued criminality, alcohol and drug abuse, and other serious difficulties throughout the life course. Our objective is to examine the developmental roots of preteen delinquency and substance use. Using nationally representative longitudinal data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study (n = 13,221), we examine the influence of early childhood developmental and family risks on latent pathways of antisocial tendencies from ages 3 to 7, and the influence of those pathways on property crime and substance use by age 11. We identified a normative, non-antisocial pathway; a pathway marked by oppositional behavior and fighting; a pathway marked by impulsivity and inattention; and a rare pathway characterized by a wide range of antisocial tendencies. Children with developmental and family risks that emerged by age 3—specifically difficult infant temperament, low cognitive ability, weak parental closeness, and disadvantaged family background—face increased odds of antisocial tendencies. There is minimal overlap between the risk factors for early antisocial tendencies and those for preteen delinquency. Children on an antisocial pathway are more likely to engage in preteen delinquency and substance use by age 11, even after accounting for early life risk factors. PMID:26900167

Risk stratification following acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Singh, Mandeep

2007-07-01

This article reviews the current risk assessment models available for patients presenting with myocardial infarction (MI). These practical tools enhance the health care provider's ability to rapidly and accurately assess patient risk from the event or revascularization therapy, and are of paramount importance in managing patients presenting with MI. This article highlights the models used for ST-elevation MI (STEMI) and non-ST elevation MI (NSTEMI) and provides an additional description of models used to assess risks after primary angioplasty (ie, angioplasty performed for STEMI).

A novel dual-marker expression panel for easy and accurate risk stratification of patients with gastric cancer.

PubMed

Kanda, Mitsuro; Murotani, Kenta; Tanaka, Haruyoshi; Miwa, Takashi; Umeda, Shinichi; Tanaka, Chie; Kobayashi, Daisuke; Hayashi, Masamichi; Hattori, Norifumi; Suenaga, Masaya; Yamada, Suguru; Nakayama, Goro; Fujiwara, Michitaka; Kodera, Yasuhiro

2018-05-07

Development of specific biomarkers is necessary for individualized management of patients with gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to design a simple expression panel comprising novel molecular markers for precise risk stratification. Patients (n = 200) who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer were randomly assigned into learning and validation sets. Tissue mRNA expression levels of 15 candidate molecular markers were determined using quantitative PCR analysis. A dual-marker expression panel was created according to concordance index (C-index) values of overall survival for all 105 combinations of two markers in the learning set. The reproducibility and clinical significance of the dual-marker expression panel were evaluated in the validation set. The patient characteristics of the learning and validation sets were well balanced. The C-index values of combinations were significantly higher compared with those of single markers. The panel with the highest C-index (0.718) of the learning set comprised SYT8 and MAGED2, which clearly stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. The reproducibility of the panel was demonstrated in the validation set. High expression scores were significantly associated with larger tumor size, vascular invasion, lymph node metastasis, peritoneal metastasis, and advanced disease. The dual-marker expression panel provides a simple tool that clearly stratifies patients with gastric cancer into low-, intermediate-, and high risk after gastrectomy. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Molecular markers of carcinogenesis for risk stratification of individuals with colorectal polyps: a case-control study.

PubMed

Gupta, Samir; Sun, Han; Yi, Sang; Storm, Joy; Xiao, Guanghua; Balasubramanian, Bijal A; Zhang, Song; Ashfaq, Raheela; Rockey, Don C

2014-10-01

Risk stratification using number, size, and histology of colorectal adenomas is currently suboptimal for identifying patients at increased risk for future colorectal cancer. We hypothesized that molecular markers of carcinogenesis in adenomas, measured via immunohistochemistry, may help identify high-risk patients. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a retrospective, 1:1 matched case-control study (n = 216; 46% female) in which cases were patients with colorectal cancer and synchronous adenoma and controls were patients with adenoma but no colorectal cancer at baseline or within 5 years of follow-up. In phase I of analyses, we compared expression of molecular markers of carcinogenesis in case and control adenomas, blind to case status. In phase II of analyses, patients were randomly divided into independent training and validation groups to develop a model for predicting case status. We found that seven markers [p53, p21, Cox-2, β-catenin (BCAT), DNA-dependent protein kinase (DNApkcs), survivin, and O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT)] were significantly associated with case status on unadjusted analyses, as well as analyses adjusted for age and advanced adenoma status (P < 0.01 for at least one marker component). When applied to the validation set, a predictive model using these seven markers showed substantial accuracy for identifying cases [area under the receiver operation characteristic curve (AUC), 0.83; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.74-0.92]. A parsimonious model using three markers performed similarly to the seven-marker model (AUC, 0.84). In summary, we found that molecular markers of carcinogenesis distinguished adenomas from patients with and without colorectal cancer. Furthermore, we speculate that prospective studies using molecular markers to identify individuals with polyps at risk for future neoplasia are warranted. ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

Optimized endogenous post-stratification in forest inventories

Treesearch

Paul L. Patterson

2012-01-01

An example of endogenous post-stratification is the use of remote sensing data with a sample of ground data to build a logistic regression model to predict the probability that a plot is forested and using the predicted probabilities to form categories for post-stratification. An optimized endogenous post-stratified estimator of the proportion of forest has been...

Revealing the timing of ocean stratification using remotely sensed ocean fronts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Peter I.; Loveday, Benjamin R.

2017-10-01

Stratification is of critical importance to the circulation, mixing and productivity of the ocean, and is expected to be modified by climate change. Stratification is also understood to affect the surface aggregation of pelagic fish and hence the foraging behaviour and distribution of their predators such as seabirds and cetaceans. Hence it would be prudent to monitor the stratification of the global ocean, though this is currently only possible using in situ sampling, profiling buoys or underwater autonomous vehicles. Earth observation (EO) sensors cannot directly detect stratification, but can observe surface features related to the presence of stratification, for example shelf-sea fronts that separate tidally-mixed water from seasonally stratified water. This paper describes a novel algorithm that accumulates evidence for stratification from a sequence of oceanic front maps, and discusses preliminary results in comparison with in situ data and simulations from 3D hydrodynamic models. In certain regions, this method can reveal the timing of the seasonal onset and breakdown of stratification.

Role of late gadolinium enhancement cardiovascular magnetic resonance in the risk stratification of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Ismail, Tevfik F; Jabbour, Andrew; Gulati, Ankur; Mallorie, Amy; Raza, Sadaf; Cowling, Thomas E; Das, Bibek; Khwaja, Jahanzaib; Alpendurada, Francisco D; Wage, Ricardo; Roughton, Michael; McKenna, William J; Moon, James C; Varnava, Amanda; Shakespeare, Carl; Cowie, Martin R; Cook, Stuart A; Elliott, Perry; O'Hanlon, Rory; Pennell, Dudley J; Prasad, Sanjay K

2014-12-01

Myocardial fibrosis identified by late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is associated with adverse cardiovascular events, but its value as an independent risk factor for sudden cardiac death (SCD) is unknown. We investigated the role of LGE-CMR in the risk stratification of HCM. We conducted a prospective cohort study in a tertiary referral centre. Consecutive patients with HCM (n=711, median age 56.3 years, IQR 46.7-66.6; 70.0% male) underwent LGE-CMR and were followed for a median 3.5 years. The primary end point was SCD or aborted SCD. Overall, 471 patients (66.2%) had myocardial fibrosis (median 5.9% of left ventricular mass, IQR: 2.2-13.3). Twenty-two (3.1%) reached the primary end point. The extent but not the presence of fibrosis was a significant univariable predictor of the primary end point (HR per 5% LGE: 1.24, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.45; p=0.007 and HR for LGE: 2.69, 95% CI 0.91 to 7.97; p=0.073, respectively). However, on multivariable analysis, only LV-EF remained statistically significant (HR: 0.92, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.95; p<0.001). For the secondary outcome of cardiovascular mortality/aborted SCD, the presence and the amount of fibrosis were significant predictors on univariable but not multivariable analysis after adjusting for LV-EF and non-sustained ventricular tachycardia. The amount of myocardial fibrosis was a strong univariable predictor of SCD risk. However, this effect was not maintained after adjusting for LV-EF. Further work is required to elucidate the interrelationship between fibrosis and traditional predictors of outcome in HCM. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Validation of risk stratification schemes for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation: nationwide cohort study

PubMed Central

Lip, Gregory Y H; Hansen, Morten Lock; Hansen, Peter Riis; Tolstrup, Janne Schurmann; Lindhardsen, Jesper; Selmer, Christian; Ahlehoff, Ole; Olsen, Anne-Marie Schjerning; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

2011-01-01

Objectives To evaluate the individual risk factors composing the CHADS2 (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age≥75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke) score and the CHA2DS2-VASc (CHA2DS2-Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category) score and to calculate the capability of the schemes to predict thromboembolism. Design Registry based cohort study. Setting Nationwide data on patients admitted to hospital with atrial fibrillation. Population All patients with atrial fibrillation not treated with vitamin K antagonists in Denmark in the period 1997-2006. Main outcome measures Stroke and thromboembolism. Results Of 121 280 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation, 73 538 (60.6%) fulfilled the study inclusion criteria. In patients at “low risk” (score=0), the rate of thromboembolism per 100 person years was 1.67 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 1.89) with CHADS2 and 0.78 (0.58 to 1.04) with CHA2DS2-VASc at one year’s follow-up. In patients at “intermediate risk” (score=1), this rate was 4.75 (4.45 to 5.07) with CHADS2 and 2.01 (1.70 to 2.36) with CHA2DS2-VASc. The rate of thromboembolism depended on the individual risk factors composing the scores, and both schemes underestimated the risk associated with previous thromboembolic events. When patients were categorised into low, intermediate, and high risk groups, C statistics at 10 years’ follow-up were 0.812 (0.796 to 0.827) with CHADS2 and 0.888 (0.875 to 0.900) with CHA2DS2-VASc. Conclusions The risk associated with a specific risk stratification score depended on the risk factors composing the score. CHA2DS2-VASc performed better than CHADS2 in predicting patients at high risk, and those categorised as low risk by CHA2DS2-VASc were truly at low risk for thromboembolism. PMID:21282258

Thermal Stratification Analysis for Sodium Fast Reactors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schneider, James; Anderson, Mark; Baglietto, Emilio

The sodium fast reactor (SFR) is the most mature reactor concept of all the generation-IV nuclear systems and is a promising reactor design that is currently under development by several organizations. The majority of sodium fast reactor designs utilize a pool type arrangement which incorporates the primary coolant pumps and intermediate heat exchangers within the sodium pool. These components typically protrude into the pool thus reducing the risk and severity of a loss of coolant accidents. To further ensure safe operation under even the most severe transients a more comprehensive understanding of key thermal hydraulic phenomena in this pool ismore » desired. One of the key technology gaps identified for SFR safety is determining the extent and the effects of thermal stratification developing in the pool during postulated accident scenarios such as a protected or unprotected loss of flow incident. In an effort to address these issues, detailed flow models of transient stratification in the pool during an accident can be developed. However, to develop the calculation models, and ensure they can reproduce the underlying physics, highly spatially resolved data is needed. This data can be used in conjunction with advanced computational fluid dynamic calculations to aid in the development of simple reduced dimensional models for systems codes such as SAM and SAS4A/SASSYS-1.« less

Prehypertension: risk stratification and management considerations.

PubMed

Egan, Brent M; Julius, Stevo

2008-10-01

Approximately 37% of US adults are prehypertensive; about 31 million have blood pressures in the range of 130-139/85-89 mm Hg. These stage 2 prehypertensives have threefold greater risk for developing hypertension and twofold higher risk for cardiovascular events than normotensives. Lifestyle changes only are recommended for most prehypertensives, but evidence for community-wide effectiveness is limited. Projected numbers needed to treat to prevent a cardiovascular event are similar for stage 2 prehypertension and stage 1 hypertension when both groups are matched for concomitant risk factors. However, no clinical trials document that pharmacotherapy reduces cardiovascular events in stage 2 prehypertension. The Trial of Preventing Hypertension demonstrated that angiotensin receptor blockade safely lowers blood pressure and prevents or delays progression to hypertension in stage 2 prehypertensives. We believe it is reasonable for clinicians to identify stage 2 prehypertensives at high absolute risk for progression to hypertension and cardiovascular events, and to treat them with a renin-angiotensin system blocker when lifestyle changes alone are ineffective.

Early sport specialization: roots, effectiveness, risks.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M

2010-01-01

Year-round training in a single sport beginning at a relatively young age is increasingly common among youth. Contributing factors include perceptions of Eastern European sport programs, a parent's desire to give his or her child an edge, labeling youth as talented at an early age, pursuit of scholarships and professional contracts, the sporting goods and services industry, and expertise research. The factors interact with the demands of sport systems. Limiting experiences to a single sport is not the best path to elite status. Risks of early specialization include social isolation, overdependence, burnout, and perhaps risk of overuse injury. Commitment to a single sport at an early age immerses a youngster in a complex world regulated by adults, which is a setting that facilitates manipulation - social, dietary, chemical, and commercial. Youth sport must be kept in perspective. Participants, including talented young athletes, are children and adolescents with the needs of children and adolescents.

Density stratification effects in sand-bed rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wright, S.; Parker, G.

2004-01-01

In this paper the effects of density stratification in sand-bed rivers are studied by the application of a model of vertical velocity and concentration profiles, coupled through the use of a turbulence closure that retains the buoyancy terms. By making the governing equations dimensionless, it is revealed that the slope is the additional dimensionless parameter introduced by inclusion of the buoyancy terms. The primary new finding is that in general density stratification effects tend to be greater in large, low-slope rivers than in their smaller, steeper brethren. Under high flow conditions the total suspended load and size distribution of suspended sediment can be significantly affected by density stratification, and should be accounted for in any general theory of suspended transport. ?? ASCE.

Does quantifying epicardial and intrathoracic fat with noncontrast computed tomography improve risk stratification beyond calcium scoring alone?

PubMed

Forouzandeh, Farshad; Chang, Su Min; Muhyieddeen, Kamil; Zaid, Rashid R; Trevino, Alejandro R; Xu, Jiaqiong; Nabi, Faisal; Mahmarian, John J

2013-01-01

Noncontrast cardiac computed tomography allows calculation of coronary artery calcium score (CACS) and measurement of epicardial adipose tissue (EATv) and intrathoracic fat (ITFv) volumes. It is unclear whether fat volume information contributes to risk stratification. Cardiac computed tomography was performed in 760 consecutive patients with acute chest pain admitted thorough the emergency department. None had prior coronary artery disease. CACS was calculated using the Agatston method. EATv and ITFv were semiautomatically calculated. Median patient follow-up was 3.3 years. Mean patient age was 54.4±13.7 years and Framingham risk score 8.2±8.2. The 45 patients (5.9%) with major acute cardiac events (MACE) were older (64.8±13.9 versus 53.7±13.4 years), more frequently male (60% versus 40%), and had a higher median Framingham risk score (16 versus 4) and CACS (268 versus 0) versus those without events (all P<0.01). The MACE group had a higher median of EATv (154 versus 116 mL) and ITFv (330 versus 223 mL), and a higher prevalence of EATv >125 mL (67% versus 44%) and ITFv >250 mL (64% versus 42%) (all P<0.01). CACS, EATv, and ITFv were all independently associated with MACE. CACS was associated with MACE after adjustment for fat volumes (P<0.0001), whereas EATv and ITFv improved the risk model only in patients with CACS >400. CACS and fat volumes are independently associated with MACE in acute chest pain patients and beyond that provided by clinical information alone. Although fat volumes may add prognostic value in patients with CACS >400, CACS is most strongly correlated with outcome.

Educational Stratification in Russia during the Soviet Period.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gerber, Theodore P.; Hout, Michael

1995-01-01

Maintains that, in spite of state efforts to reduce educational inequities, stratification actually increased during the Soviet period. Removing gender preferences for men corrected some inequity. However, parents' education, occupation, and geographical origin contributed to the stratification. Contains a concise history of Soviet educational…

Early recurrence in standard-risk medulloblastoma patients with the common idic(17)(p11.2) rearrangement

PubMed Central

Bien-Willner, Gabriel A.; López-Terrada, Dolores; Bhattacharjee, Meena B.; Patel, Kayuri U.; Stankiewicz, Paweł; Lupski, James R.; Pfeifer, John D.; Perry, Arie

2012-01-01

Medulloblastoma is diagnosed histologically; treatment depends on staging and age of onset. Whereas clinical factors identify a standard- and a high-risk population, these findings cannot differentiate which standard-risk patients will relapse and die. Outcome is thought to be influenced by tumor subtype and molecular alterations. Poor prognosis has been associated with isochromosome (i)17q in some but not all studies. In most instances, molecular investigations document that i17q is not a true isochromosome but rather an isodicentric chromosome, idic(17)(p11.2), with rearrangement breakpoints mapping within the REPA/REPB region on 17p11.2. This study explores the clinical utility of testing for idic(17)(p11.2) rearrangements using an assay based on fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH). This test was applied to 58 consecutive standard- and high-risk medulloblastomas with a 5-year minimum of clinical follow-up. The presence of i17q (ie, including cases not involving the common breakpoint), idic(17)(p11.2), and histologic subtype was correlated with clinical outcome. Overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were consistent with literature reports. Fourteen patients (25%) had i17q, with 10 (18%) involving the common isodicentric rearrangement. The presence of i17q was associated with a poor prognosis. OS and DFS were poor in all cases with anaplasia (4), unresectable disease (7), and metastases at presentation (10); however, patients with standard-risk tumors fared better. Of these 44 cases, tumors with idic(17)(p11.2) were associated with significantly worse patient outcomes and shorter mean DFS. FISH detection of idic(17)(p11.2) may be useful for risk stratification in standard-risk patients. The presence of this abnormal chromosome is associated with early recurrence of medulloblastoma. PMID:22573308

Risk stratification in acute pulmonary embolism with heart-type fatty acid-binding protein: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bajaj, Anurag; Rathor, Parul; Sehgal, Vishal; Shetty, Ajay; Kabak, Besher; Hosur, Srikanth

2015-10-01

Heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) has emerged as a new biomarker in risk stratification of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We performed a meta-analysis of studies in patients with acute PE to assess the prognostic value of elevated H-FABP for short-term adverse outcomes. Two independent reviewers systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Database until June 2014. Studies were searched using MeSH word "fatty acid-binding protein" and "pulmonary embolism." Prospective studies were included if those were done on patients with acute PE and if serum H-FABP assay was done. Relevant data on study design, year of publication, patient population, inclusion criteria, exclusion criteria, mean age, sex, type of H-FABP assay, cutoff of H-FABP used, and outcomes were extracted. The primary end point was 30-day complicated clinical course and PE-related mortality. The secondary end point was right ventricular dysfunction (RVD). A random-effects model was used to pool study results. Nine studies, including 1680 patients, reported data on the 30-day complicated clinical course. Elevated H-FABP was significantly associated with the increased risk of 30-day complicated clinical course (odds ratio [OR], 17.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.02-51.89; I(2) = 80%). Similarly, 6 studies, including 676 patients, reported 30-day mortality data. Elevated H-FABP was associated with increased risk of 30-day PE-related mortality (OR, 32.94; 95% CI, 8.80-123.21, I(2) = 53%). The risk of RVD was significantly higher in patients with elevated H-FABP as compared with patients with normal H-FABP (OR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.05-6.33, I(2) = 57%). The prognostic sensitivity and specificity of H-FABP were 71% and 74% in predicting 30-day complicated clinical course and were 90% and 70% in predicting 30-day mortality. This meta-analysis indicates that elevated H-FABP levels are associated with increased risk of 30-day complicated clinical course, mortality, and RVD

Early identification and high-risk strategies for bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Correll, Christoph U; Penzner, Julie B; Lencz, Todd; Auther, Andrea; Smith, Christopher W; Malhotra, Anil K; Kane, John M; Cornblatt, Barbara A

2007-06-01

To describe and compare the relative merits of different identification strategies for individuals at risk for bipolar disorder (BPD). Selective review of data that support early identification in BPD, with a particular focus on emerging clinical high-risk strategies. Early detection of individuals at risk for BPD can utilize genetic, endophenotypic and clinical methods. Most published work focuses on genetic familial endophenotypic risk markers for BPD. However, despite encouraging results, problems with specificity and sensitivity limit the application of these data to early prevention programs. In addition, offspring studies of BPD patients systematically exclude the majority of subjects without a first-degree bipolar relative. On the other hand, emerging work in the clinical-high-risk arena has already produced encouraging results. Although still preliminary, the identification of individuals in subsyndromal or attenuated symptom 'prodromal' stages of BPD seems to be an under-researched area that holds considerable promise deserving increased attention. Required next steps include the development of rating tools for attenuated and subsyndromal manic and depressive symptoms and of prodromal criteria that will allow prodromal symptomatology to be systematically studied in patients with recent-onset bipolar, as well as in prospective population-based phenomenology trials and attenuated symptom-based high-risk studies. Given the current limitations of each early identification method, combining clinical, endophenotypic and genetic strategies will increase prediction accuracy. Since reliable biological markers for BPD have not been established and since most patients with BPD lack a first-degree relative with this disorder, clinical high-risk approaches have great potential to inform early identification and intervention programs.

A new stratification of mourning dove call-count routes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blankenship, L.H.; Humphrey, A.B.; MacDonald, D.

1971-01-01

The mourning dove (Zenaidura macroura) call-count survey is a nationwide audio-census of breeding mourning doves. Recent analyses of the call-count routes have utilized a stratification based upon physiographic regions of the United States. An analysis of 5 years of call-count data, based upon stratification using potential natural vegetation, has demonstrated that this uew stratification results in strata with greater homogeneity than the physiographic strata, provides lower error variance, and hence generates greatet precision in the analysis without an increase in call-count routes. Error variance was reduced approximately 30 percent for the contiguous United States. This indicates that future analysis based upon the new stratification will result in an increased ability to detect significant year-to-year changes.

Validation of a risk stratification tool for fall-related injury in a state-wide cohort.

PubMed

McCoy, Thomas H; Castro, Victor M; Cagan, Andrew; Roberson, Ashlee M; Perlis, Roy H

2017-02-06

A major preventable contributor to healthcare costs among older individuals is fall-related injury. We sought to validate a tool to stratify such risk based on readily available clinical data, including projected medication adverse effects, using state-wide medical claims data. Sociodemographic and clinical features were drawn from health claims paid in the state of Massachusetts for individuals aged 35-65 with a hospital admission for a period spanning January-December 2012. Previously developed logistic regression models of hospital readmission for fall-related injury were refit in a testing set including a randomly selected 70% of individuals, and examined in a training set comprised of the remaining 30%. Medications at admission were summarised based on reported adverse effect frequencies in published medication labelling. The Massachusetts health system. A total of 68 764 hospitalised individuals aged 35-65 years. Hospital readmission for fall-related injury defined by claims code. A total of 2052 individuals (3.0%) were hospitalised for fall-related injury within 90 days of discharge, and 3391 (4.9%) within 180 days. After recalibrating the model in a training data set comprised of 48 136 individuals (70%), model discrimination in the remaining 30% test set yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.74 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.76). AUCs were similar across age decades (0.71 to 0.78) and sex (0.72 male, 0.76 female), and across most common diagnostic categories other than psychiatry. For individuals in the highest risk quartile, 11.4% experienced fall within 180 days versus 1.2% in the lowest risk quartile; 57.6% of falls occurred in the highest risk quartile. This analysis of state-wide claims data demonstrates the feasibility of predicting fall-related injury requiring hospitalisation using readily available sociodemographic and clinical details. This translatable approach to stratification allows for identification of

Volumetry based biomarker speed of growth: Quantifying the change of total tumor volume in whole-body magnetic resonance imaging over time improves risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients

PubMed Central

Piraud, Marie; Menze, Bjoern H.; Hielscher, Thomas; Hofmanninger, Johannes; Wagner, Barbara; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Merz, Maximilian; Hillengass, Jens; Langs, Georg; Weber, Marc-André

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to improve risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients, introducing new 3D-volumetry based imaging biomarkers derived from whole-body MRI. Two-hundred twenty whole-body MRIs from 63 patients with smoldering multiple myeloma were retrospectively analyzed and all focal lesions >5mm were manually segmented for volume quantification. The imaging biomarkers total tumor volume, speed of growth (development of the total tumor volume over time), number of focal lesions, development of the number of focal lesions over time and the recent imaging biomarker ‘>1 focal lesion’ of the International Myeloma Working Group were compared, taking 2-year progression rate, sensitivity and false positive rate into account. Speed of growth, using a cutoff of 114mm3/month, was able to isolate a high-risk group with a 2-year progression rate of 82.5%. Additionally, it showed by far the highest sensitivity in this study and in comparison to other biomarkers in the literature, detecting 63.2% of patients who progress within 2 years. Furthermore, its false positive rate (8.7%) was much lower compared to the recent imaging biomarker ‘>1 focal lesion’ of the International Myeloma Working Group. Therefore, speed of growth is the preferable imaging biomarker for risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients. PMID:29861868

Education and Social Stratification Processes in Comparative Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kerckhoff, Alan C.

2001-01-01

Discusses three characteristics of educational systems that have been used to explain social stratification processes: stratification, standardization, and vocational specificity. Describes how these characteristics affect the movement of students through school and into the labor force in France, Germany, Great Britain, and the United States.…

Comparison of different risk stratification systems in predicting short-term serious outcome of syncope patients.

PubMed

Safari, Saeed; Baratloo, Alireza; Hashemi, Behrooz; Rahmati, Farhad; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Mehdi; Motamedi, Maryam; Mirmohseni, Ladan

2016-01-01

Determining etiologic causes and prognosis can significantly improve management of syncope patients. The present study aimed to compare the values of San Francisco, Osservatorio Epidemiologico sulla Sincope nel Lazio (OESIL), Boston, and Risk Stratification of Syncope in the Emergency Department (ROSE) score clinical decision rules in predicting the short-term serious outcome of syncope patients. The present diagnostic accuracy study with 1-week follow-up was designed to evaluate the predictive values of the four mentioned clinical decision rules. Screening performance characteristics of each model in predicting mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), and cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) were calculated and compared. To evaluate the value of each aforementioned model in predicting the outcome, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio were calculated and receiver-operating curve (ROC) curve analysis was done. A total of 187 patients (mean age: 64.2 ± 17.2 years) were enrolled in the study. Mortality, MI, and CVA were seen in 19 (10.2%), 12 (6.4%), and 36 (19.2%) patients, respectively. Area under the ROC curve for OESIL, San Francisco, Boston, and ROSE models in prediction the risk of 1-week mortality, MI, and CVA was in the 30-70% range, with no significant difference among models ( P > 0.05). The pooled model did not show higher accuracy in prediction of mortality, MI, and CVA compared to others ( P > 0.05). This study revealed the weakness of all four evaluated models in predicting short-term serious outcome of syncope patients referred to the emergency department without any significant advantage for one among others.

Anomalous Coronary Arteries and Myocardial Bridges: Risk Stratification in Children Using Novel Cardiac Catheterization Techniques.

PubMed

Agrawal, Hitesh; Molossi, Silvana; Alam, Mahboob; Sexson-Tejtel, S Kristen; Mery, Carlos M; McKenzie, E Dean; Fraser, Charles D; Qureshi, Athar M

2017-03-01

The evaluation of the vast majority of children with anomalous aortic origin of a coronary artery (AAOCA) and/or myocardial bridges is performed with non-invasive testing. However, a subset of these patients may benefit from invasive testing for risk stratification. All patients included in the Coronary Anomalies Program (CAP) at Texas Children's Hospital who underwent cardiac catheterization were included. Techniques included selective coronary angiograms (SCA), intravascular ultrasound (IVUS), and fractional flow reserve (FFR) measurements with provocative testing using adenosine and/or dobutamine infusions. Out of the 131 patients followed by the CAP between 12/12-4/16, 8 (6%) patients underwent 9 cath investigations at median age 13.1 (2.6-18.7) years and median weight 49.5 (11.4-142.7) kg. Six patients presented with cardiac signs/symptoms. Four patients had myocardial bridges of the left anterior descending (LAD) coronary artery, 2 patients had isolated AAOCA, and 2 patients had an anomalous left coronary artery (LCA) with an intramyocardial course of the LAD. SCA was performed in all patients. FFR was positive in 4/6 patients: IVUS showed >70% intraluminal narrowing in 3/5 patients. One patient had hemodynamic instability that reversed with catheter removal from the coronary ostium. Based on the catheterization data obtained, findings were reassuring in three patients, surgery was performed in three patients, and two patients are being medically managed/restricted from competitive sports. In our small cohort of patients, we demonstrated that IVUS and FFR can safely be performed in children and may help to risk stratify some patients with AAOCA and myocardial bridges.

The role stratification on Indian ocean mixing under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Praveen, V.; Valsala, V.; Ravindran, A. M.

2017-12-01

The impact of changes in Indian ocean stratification on mixing under global warming is examined. Previous studies on global warming and associated weakening of winds reported to increase the stratification of the world ocean leading to a reduction in mixing, increased acidity, reduced oxygen and there by a reduction in productivity. However this processes is not uniform and are also modulated by changes in wind pattern of the future. Our study evaluate the role of stratification and surface fluxes on mixing focusing northern Indian ocean. A dynamical downscaling study using Regional ocean Modelling system (ROMS) forced with stratification and surface fluxes from selected CMIP5 models are presented. Results from an extensive set of historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario simulations are used to quantify the distinctive role of stratification on mixing.

Patient characteristics and stratification in medical treatment studies for metastatic colorectal cancer: a proposal for standardization of patient characteristic reporting and stratification.

PubMed

Sorbye, H; Köhne, C-H; Sargent, D J; Glimelius, B

2007-10-01

Prognostic factors have the potential to determine the survival of patients to a greater extent than current antineoplastic agents. Despite this knowledge, there is no consensus on, first, what patient characteristics to report and, second, what stratification factors to use in metastatic colorectal cancer trials. Seven leading oncology and medical journals were reviewed for phase II and III publications reporting on medical treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer patients during 2001-2005. One hundred and forty-three studies with 21 214 patients were identified. The reporting of patient characteristics and use of stratification was noted. Age, gender, performance status, metastases location, sites and adjuvant chemotherapy were often reported (99-63%). Laboratory values as alkaline phosphatase, lactate dehydrogenase and white blood cell count, repeatedly found to be of prognostic relevance, were rarely reported (5-9%). Stratification was used in all phase III trials; however, only study centre was used with any consistency. There is considerable inconsistency in the reporting of patient characteristics and use of stratification factors in metastatic colorectal cancer trials. We propose a standardization of patient characteristics reporting and stratification factors. A common set of characteristics and strata will aid in trial reporting, interpretation and future meta-analyses.

Vitamin D and calcium intake and risk of early menopause.

PubMed

Purdue-Smithe, Alexandra C; Whitcomb, Brian W; Szegda, Kathleen L; Boutot, Maegan E; Manson, JoAnn E; Hankinson, Susan E; Rosner, Bernard A; Troy, Lisa M; Michels, Karin B; Bertone-Johnson, Elizabeth R

2017-06-01

Background: Early menopause, defined as the cessation of ovarian function before the age of 45 y, affects ∼10% of women and is associated with higher risk of cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, and other conditions. Few modifiable risk factors for early menopause have been identified, but emerging data suggest that high vitamin D intake may reduce risk. Objective: We evaluated how intakes of vitamin D and calcium are associated with the incidence of early menopause in the prospective Nurses' Health Study II (NHS2). Design: Intakes of vitamin D and calcium from foods and supplements were measured every 4 y with the use of a food-frequency questionnaire. Cases of incident early menopause were identified from all participants who were premenopausal at baseline in 1991; over 1.13 million person-years, 2041 women reported having natural menopause before the age of 45 y. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate relations between intakes of vitamin D and calcium and incident early menopause while accounting for potential confounding factors. Results: After adjustment for age, smoking, and other factors, women with the highest intake of dietary vitamin D (quintile median: 528 IU/d) had a significant 17% lower risk of early menopause than women with the lowest intake [quintile median: 148 IU/d; HR: 0.83 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.95); P -trend = 0.03]. Dietary calcium intake in the highest quintile (median: 1246 mg/d) compared with the lowest (median: 556 mg/d) was associated with a borderline significantly lower risk of early menopause (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76, 1.00; P -trend = 0.03). Associations were stronger for vitamin D and calcium from dairy sources than from nondairy dietary sources, whereas high supplement use was not associated with lower risk. Conclusions: Findings suggest that high intakes of dietary vitamin D and calcium may be modestly associated with a lower risk of early menopause. Further studies evaluating 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations, other

Using pharmacists to improve risk stratification and management of stage 3A chronic kidney disease: a feasibility study.

PubMed

Chang, Alex R; Evans, Michael; Yule, Christina; Bohn, Larissa; Young, Amanda; Lewis, Meredith; Graboski, Elisabeth; Gerdy, Bethany; Ehmann, William; Brady, Jonathan; Lawrence, Leah; Antunes, Natacha; Green, Jamie; Snyder, Susan; Kirchner, H Lester; Grams, Morgan; Perkins, Robert

2016-11-08

Measurement of albuminuria to stratify risk in chronic kidney disease (CKD) is not done universally in the primary care setting despite recommendation in KDIGO (Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes) guidelines. Pharmacist medication therapy management (MTM) may be helpful in improving CKD risk stratification and management. We conducted a pragmatic, cluster-randomized trial using seven primary care clinic sites in the Geisinger Health System to evaluate the feasibility of pharmacist MTM in patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 45-59 ml/min/1.73 m 2 and uncontrolled blood pressure (≥150/85 mmHg). In the three pharmacist MTM sites, pharmacists were instructed to follow a protocol aimed to improve adherence to KDIGO guidelines on testing for proteinuria and lipids, and statin and blood pressure medical therapy. In the four control clinics, patients received usual care. The primary outcome was proteinuria screening over a follow-up of 1 year. A telephone survey was administered to physicians, pharmacists, and patients in the pharmacist MTM arm at the end of the trial. Baseline characteristics were similar between pharmacist MTM (n = 24) and control (n = 23) patients, although pharmacist MTM patients tended to be younger (64 vs. 71 y; p = 0.06) and less likely to have diabetes (17 % vs. 35 %; p = 0.2) or baseline proteinuria screening (41.7 % vs. 60.9 %, p = 0.2). Mean eGFR was 54 ml/min/1.73 m 2 in both groups. The pharmacist MTM intervention did not significantly improve total proteinuria screening at the population level (OR 2.6, 95 % CI: 0.5-14.0; p = 0.3). However, it tended to increase screening of previously unscreened patients (78.6 % in the pharmacist MTM group compared to 33.3 % in the control group; OR 7.3, 95 % CI: 0.96-56.3; p = 0.05). In general, the intervention was well-received by patients, pharmacists, and providers, who agreed that pharmacists could play an important role in CKD

Early life exposures and the risk of adult glioma.

PubMed

Anic, Gabriella M; Madden, Melissa H; Sincich, Kelly; Thompson, Reid C; Nabors, L Burton; Olson, Jeffrey J; LaRocca, Renato V; Browning, James E; Pan, Edward; Egan, Kathleen M

2013-09-01

Exposure to common infections in early life may stimulate immune development and reduce the risk for developing cancer. Birth order and family size are proxies for the timing of exposure to childhood infections with several studies showing a reduced risk of glioma associated with a higher order of birth (and presumed younger age at infection). The aim of this study was to examine whether birth order, family size, and other early life exposures are associated with the risk of glioma in adults using data collected in a large clinic-based US case-control study including 889 glioma cases and 903 community controls. A structured interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect information on family structure, childhood exposures and other potential risk factors. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between early life factors and glioma risk. Persons having any siblings were at significantly lower risk for glioma when compared to those reporting no siblings (OR=0.64; 95% CI 0.44-0.93; p=0.020). Compared to first-borns, individuals with older siblings had a significantly lower risk (OR=0.75; 95% CI 0.61-0.91; p=0.004). Birth weight, having been breast fed in infancy, and season of birth were not associated with glioma risk. The current findings lend further support to a growing body of evidence that early exposure to childhood infections reduces the risk of glioma onset in children and adults.

Effects of Density Stratification in Compressible Polytropic Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manduca, Cathryn M.; Anders, Evan H.; Bordwell, Baylee; Brown, Benjamin P.; Burns, Keaton J.; Lecoanet, Daniel; Oishi, Jeffrey S.; Vasil, Geoffrey M.

2017-11-01

We study compressible convection in polytropically-stratified atmospheres, exploring the effect of varying the total density stratification. Using the Dedalus pseudospectral framework, we perform 2D and 3D simulations. In these experiments we vary the number of density scale heights, studying atmospheres with little stratification (1 density scale height) and significant stratification (5 density scale heights). We vary the level of convective driving (quantified by the Rayleigh number), and study flows at similar Mach numbers by fixing the initial superadiabaticity. We explore the differences between 2D and 3D simulations, and in particular study the equilibration between different reservoirs of energy (kinetic, potential and internal) in the evolved states.

Principal Stratification — a Goal or a Tool?

PubMed Central

Pearl, Judea

2011-01-01

Principal stratification has recently become a popular tool to address certain causal inference questions, particularly in dealing with post-randomization factors in randomized trials. Here, we analyze the conceptual basis for this framework and invite response to clarify the value of principal stratification in estimating causal effects of interest. PMID:21556288

The nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis score, cardiovascular risk stratification and a strategy for secondary prevention with ezetimibe.

PubMed

Simon, Tracey G; Corey, Kathleen E; Cannon, Christopher P; Blazing, Michael; Park, Jeong-Gun; O'Donoghue, Michelle L; Chung, Raymond T; Giugliano, Robert P

2018-05-26

The nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS) is comprised of unique metabolic risk indicators that may accurately predict residual cardiovascular (CV) risk in patients with established coronary disease and metabolic dysfunction. We applied the NFS prospectively to 14,819 post-ACS patients randomized to ezetimibe/simvastatin (E/S) or placebo/simvastatin (P/S), in the IMPROVE-IT trial, using validated NFS cutoffs. The primary endpoint included CV death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, revascularization or stroke. Outcomes were compared between NFS categories and treatment arms using frequency of events, KM rates and adjusted Cox proportional hazard models. The ability of the NFS to predict recurrent CV events was independently validated in 5395 placebo-treated patients enrolled in the SOLID-TIMI 52 trial. Among 14,819 patients enrolled in IMPROVE-IT, 14.2% (N = 2106) were high-risk (NFS > 0.67). The high-risk group had a 30% increased risk of recurrent major CV events, compared to the low-risk NFS group (HR 1.30 [1.19-1.43]; p < 0.001). Among high-risk patients, ezetimibe/simvastatin conferred a 3.7% absolute reduction in risk of recurrent CV events, compared to placebo/simvastatin (HR 0.85 [0.74-0.98]), translating to a number-needed-to-treat of 27. Similar benefit was not found in the low-risk group (HR ezetimibe/simvastatin vs. placebo/simvastatin, 1.01 [0.91-1.12]; p-interaction = 0.053). The relationship between NFS category and recurrent CV events was independently validated in patients enrolled in SOLID-TIMI 52 (HR for NFS > 0.67 vs. NFS < -1.455 = 1.55 [1.32-1.81]; p < 0.001). Stratification of cardiovascular risk by NFS identifies an independent population of patients who are at highest risk of recurrent events, and most likely to benefit from dual lipid-lowering therapy. Clinical trials.gov: NCT00202878. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cancer Stratification by Molecular Imaging

PubMed Central

Weber, Justus; Haberkorn, Uwe; Mier, Walter

2015-01-01

The lack of specificity of traditional cytotoxic drugs has triggered the development of anticancer agents that selectively address specific molecular targets. An intrinsic property of these specialized drugs is their limited applicability for specific patient subgroups. Consequently, the generation of information about tumor characteristics is the key to exploit the potential of these drugs. Currently, cancer stratification relies on three approaches: Gene expression analysis and cancer proteomics, immunohistochemistry and molecular imaging. In order to enable the precise localization of functionally expressed targets, molecular imaging combines highly selective biomarkers and intense signal sources. Thus, cancer stratification and localization are performed simultaneously. Many cancer types are characterized by altered receptor expression, such as somatostatin receptors, folate receptors or Her2 (human epidermal growth factor receptor 2). Similar correlations are also known for a multitude of transporters, such as glucose transporters, amino acid transporters or hNIS (human sodium iodide symporter), as well as cell specific proteins, such as the prostate specific membrane antigen, integrins, and CD20. This review provides a comprehensive description of the methods, targets and agents used in molecular imaging, to outline their application for cancer stratification. Emphasis is placed on radiotracers which are used to identify altered expression patterns of cancer associated markers. PMID:25749472

Sudden Cardiac Risk Stratification with Electrocardiographic Indices - A Review on Computational Processing, Technology Transfer, and Scientific Evidence

PubMed Central

Gimeno-Blanes, Francisco J.; Blanco-Velasco, Manuel; Barquero-Pérez, Óscar; García-Alberola, Arcadi; Rojo-Álvarez, José L.

2016-01-01

Great effort has been devoted in recent years to the development of sudden cardiac risk predictors as a function of electric cardiac signals, mainly obtained from the electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis. But these prediction techniques are still seldom used in clinical practice, partly due to its limited diagnostic accuracy and to the lack of consensus about the appropriate computational signal processing implementation. This paper addresses a three-fold approach, based on ECG indices, to structure this review on sudden cardiac risk stratification. First, throughout the computational techniques that had been widely proposed for obtaining these indices in technical literature. Second, over the scientific evidence, that although is supported by observational clinical studies, they are not always representative enough. And third, via the limited technology transfer of academy-accepted algorithms, requiring further meditation for future systems. We focus on three families of ECG derived indices which are tackled from the aforementioned viewpoints, namely, heart rate turbulence (HRT), heart rate variability (HRV), and T-wave alternans. In terms of computational algorithms, we still need clearer scientific evidence, standardizing, and benchmarking, siting on advanced algorithms applied over large and representative datasets. New scenarios like electronic health recordings, big data, long-term monitoring, and cloud databases, will eventually open new frameworks to foresee suitable new paradigms in the near future. PMID:27014083

Systemic mastocytosis in adults: 2017 update on diagnosis, risk stratification and management.

PubMed

Pardanani, Animesh

2016-11-01

Disease overview:Systemic mastocytosis (SM) results from a clonal proliferation of abnormal mast cells (MC) in one or more extra-cutaneous organs. The major criterion is presence of multifocal clusters of morphologically abnormal MC in the bone marrow. Minor diagnostic criteria include elevated serum tryptase level, abnormal MC expression of CD25 and/or CD2, and presence of KITD816V. Risk stratification: The 2008 World Health Organization (WHO) classification of SM has been shown to be prognostically relevant. Classification of SM patients into indolent (SM), aggressive SM (ASM), SM associated with a clonal non-MC lineage disease (SM-AHNMD) and mast cell leukemia (MCL) subgroups is a useful first step in establishing prognosis. SM treatment is generally palliative. ISM patients have a normal life expectancy and receive symptom-directed therapy; infrequently, cytoreductive therapy may be indicated for refractory symptoms. ASM patients have disease-related organ dysfunction; interferon-α (±corticosteroids) can control dermatological, hematological, gastrointestinal, skeletal and mediator-release symptoms, but is hampered by poor tolerability. Similarly, cladribine has broad therapeutic activity, with particular utility when rapid MC debulking is indicated; the main toxicity is myelosuppression. Imatinib has a therapeutic role in the presence of an imatinib-sensitive KIT mutation or in KITD816-unmutated patients. Treatment of SM-AHNMD is governed primarily by the non-MC neoplasm; hydroxyurea has modest utility in this setting; there is a role for allogeneic stem cell transplantation in select cases. Investigational drugs: Recent data confirms midostaurin's significant anti-MC activity in patients with advanced SM. Am. J. Hematol. 91:1147-1159, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Early Onset Obesity and Risk of Metabolic Syndrome Among Chilean Adolescents

PubMed Central

Pacheco, Lorena Sonia; Blanco, Estela; Burrows, Raquel; Reyes, Marcela; Lozoff, Betsy

2017-01-01

Introduction Obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS) indicators have increased globally among the pediatric population. MetS indicators in the young elevate their risk of cardiovascular disease and metabolic disorders later in life. This study examined early onset obesity as a risk factor for MetS risk in adolescence. Methods A cohort of Chilean participants (N = 673) followed from infancy was assessed at age 5 years and in adolescence (mean age, 16.8 y). Adiposity was measured at both time points; blood pressure and fasting blood samples were assessed in adolescence only. Early onset obesity was defined as a World Health Organization z score of 2 standard deviations (SDs) or more for body mass index (BMI) at age 5 years. We used linear regression to examine the association between early onset obesity and adolescent MetS risk z score, adjusting for covariates. Results Eighteen percent of participants had early onset obesity, and 50% of these remained obese in adolescence. Mean MetS risk z score in adolescence was significantly higher among those with early onset obesity than among those without (1.0; SD, 0.8 vs 0.2; SD, 0.8 [P < .001]). In the multivariable model, early onset obesity independently contributed to a higher MetS risk score in adolescence (β = 0.27, P < .001), controlling for obesity status at adolescence and sex, and explained 39% of the variance in MetS risk. Conclusion Early onset obesity as young as age 5 years relates to higher MetS risk. PMID:29023232

The Kid-Short Marfan Score (Kid-SMS) - an easy executable risk score for suspected paediatric patients with Marfan syndrome.

PubMed

Mueller, Goetz C; Stark, Veronika; Steiner, Kristoffer; Weil, Jochen; von Kodolitsch, Yskert; Mir, Thomas S

2013-02-01

Due to age-dependent manifestations, diagnosis of Marfan syndrome (MFS) in children and adolescents is sophisticated. Although revised Ghent criteria is a major step forward, its utility in children is still restricted due to expensive and technically advanced diagnostics. As early diagnosis submits long-term benefits concerning prognosis, the need of an appropriate diagnostic tool for risk stratification of suspected paediatric patients with Marfan is justified. Sixty paediatric patients with Marfan were subject to a standardized diagnostic programme. All clinical symptoms of the revised Ghent nosology were analysed concerning age at first clinical manifestation, prevalence and likelihood ratio for MFS. Symptoms with early onset, high prevalence and high positive likelihood ratio were identified and combined for a risk score called Kid-Short Marfan Score (Kid-SMS). Three risk categories for suspicion of Marfan syndrome were developed. Finally, the Kid-SMS was operated in 130 paediatric patients with suspected MFS. Kid-SMS identified significantly more suspected patients with Marfan compared with Ghent nosology, revised Ghent and genetics alone without oversensitivity. Whereas diagnosis of MFS in childhood is sophisticated, Kid-SMS is a useful tool for risk stratification of suspected paediatric patients with Marfan by easy executable diagnostics, especially for paediatricians and paediatric cardiologists. ©2012 The Author(s)/Acta Paediatrica ©2012 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

From differences in means between cases and controls to risk stratification: a business plan for biomarker development.

PubMed

Wentzensen, Nicolas; Wacholder, Sholom

2013-02-01

Researchers developing biomarkers for early detection can determine the potential for clinical benefit at early stages of development. We provide the theoretical background showing the quantitative connection between biomarker levels in cases and controls and clinically meaningful risk measures, as well as a spreadsheet for researchers to use in their own research. We provide researchers with tools to decide whether a test is useful, whether it needs technical improvement, whether it may work only in specific populations, or whether any further development is futile. The methods described here apply to any method that aims to estimate risk of disease based on biomarkers, clinical tests, genetics, environment, or behavior. Many efforts go into futile biomarker development and premature clinical testing. In many instances, predictions for translational success or failure can be made early, simply based on critical analysis of case–control data. Our article presents well-established theory in a form that can be appreciated by biomarker researchers. Furthermore, we provide an interactive spreadsheet that links biomarker performance with specific disease characteristics to evaluate the promise of biomarker candidates at an early stage.

Health care professionals' attitudes towards population-based genetic testing and risk-stratification for ovarian cancer: a cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Hann, Katie E J; Fraser, Lindsay; Side, Lucy; Gessler, Sue; Waller, Jo; Sanderson, Saskia C; Freeman, Madeleine; Jacobs, Ian; Lanceley, Anne

2017-12-16

Ovarian cancer is usually diagnosed at a late stage when outcomes are poor. Personalised ovarian cancer risk prediction, based on genetic and epidemiological information and risk stratified management in adult women could improve outcomes. Examining health care professionals' (HCP) attitudes to ovarian cancer risk stratified management, willingness to support women, self-efficacy (belief in one's own ability to successfully complete a task), and knowledge about ovarian cancer will help identify training needs in anticipation of personalised ovarian cancer risk prediction being introduced. An anonymous survey was distributed online to HCPs via relevant professional organisations in the UK. Kruskal-Wallis tests and pairwise comparisons were used to compare knowledge and self-efficacy scores between different types of HCPs, and attitudes toward population-based genetic testing and risk stratified management were described. Content analysis was undertaken of free text responses concerning HCPs willingness to discuss risk management options with women. One hundred forty-six eligible HCPs completed the survey: oncologists (31%); genetics clinicians (30%); general practitioners (22%); gynaecologists (10%); nurses (4%); and 'others'. Scores for knowledge of ovarian cancer and genetics, and self-efficacy in conducting a cancer risk consultation were generally high but significantly lower for general practitioners compared to genetics clinicians, oncologists, and gynaecologists. Support for population-based genetic testing was not high (<50%). Attitudes towards ovarian cancer risk stratification were mixed, although the majority of participants indicated a willingness to discuss management options with patients. Larger samples are required to investigate attitudes to population-based genetic testing for ovarian cancer risk and to establish why some HCPs are hesitant to offer testing to all adult female patients. If ovarian cancer risk assessment using genetic testing and non

Efficacy of risk stratification in tailoring immunosuppression regimens in kidney transplant patients at the national kidney and transplant institute.

PubMed

Ledesma-Gumba, M A; Danguilan, R A; Casasola, C C; Ona, E T

2008-09-01

To evaluate the efficacy of tailored immunosuppressive regimens prescribed according to a risk stratification scoring system based on the number of HLA mismatches, donor source, panel-reactive antibodies (PRA), and repeat transplant. Patients in a retrospective cohort of 329 kidney transplantations performed from October 2004 to December 2005 were assigned scores of 0, 2, 4, or 6 with higher scores for > or =1 HLA mismatches, PRA > 10%, repeat transplant, and unrelated or deceased donor. Added scores of < or =4 comprised the low-risk group who received a Calcineurin inhibitor (CNI)-based regimen without induction, whereas a score > or = 6 denoted high risk including a CNI-based regimen with an interleukin-2 receptor antibody. The efficacy analysis compared the incidences of biopsy-proven acute rejection episodes (BPAR) at 1 year. Only 227 (69%) of 329 patients had a complete data set and 84 were excluded because they did not follow the prescribed protocol, yielding 113 low- and 30 high-risk patients in the final population. Low-risk patients had a mean PRA of 5.4%, living related donors in 68%, and primary transplants. High-risk patients had a mean PRA of 18.8% (range = 10%-97%), living nonrelated donors in 84%, four deceased donors, and four repeat transplants. The overall 1-year incidence of BPAR was 5.7%. No significant difference (P = .081) was observed in 1-year BPAR between the low- (4.5%) and high-risk (9.8%) groups. Likewise, no significant difference in the 1-year mean serum creatinine was observed according to the CNI. The mean creatinine was 1.12 for cyclosporine and 1.38 for tacrolimus treatment (P = .06) in the low-risk group and 1.08 for cyclosporine and 1.2 for tacrolimus (P = .61) in the high-risk cohort. There was no significant difference in acute rejection rates between the immunologically low- or high-risk patients using tailored immunosuppression, which was effective to minimize its occurrence with good renal function at 1 year.

Numerical investigation of potential stratification caused by a cryogenic helium spill inside a tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinclair, Cameron; Malecha, Ziemowit; Jedrusyna, Artur

2018-04-01

The sudden release of cryogenic fluid into an accelerator tunnel can pose a significant health and safety risk. For this reason, it is important to evaluate the consequences of such a spill. Previous publications concentrated on either Oxygen Deficiency Hazard or the evaluation of mathematical models using experimental data. No studies to date have focussed on the influence of cryogen inlet conditions on flow development. In this paper, the stratification behaviour of low-temperature helium released into an air-filled accelerator tunnel is investigated for varying helium inlet diameters. A numerical model was constructed using the OpenFOAM Toolbox of a generalised 3D geometry, with similar hydraulic characteristics to the CERN and SLAC tunnels. This model has been validated against published experimental and numerical data. A dimensionless parameter, based on Bakke number, was then determined for the onset of stratification, taking into account the helium inlet diameter; a dimensionless parameter for the degree of stratification was also employed. The simulated flow behaviour is described in terms of these dimensionless parameters, as well as the temperature and oxygen concentration at various heights throughout the tunnel.

Near-Surface Effects of Free Atmosphere Stratification in Free Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mellado, Juan Pedro; van Heerwaarden, Chiel C.; Garcia, Jade Rachele

2016-04-01

The effect of a linear stratification in the free atmosphere on near-surface properties in a free convective boundary layer (CBL) is investigated by means of direct numerical simulation. We consider two regimes: a neutral stratification regime, which represents a CBL that grows into a residual layer, and a strong stratification regime, which represents the equilibrium (quasi-steady) entrainment regime. We find that the mean buoyancy varies as z^{-1/3}, in agreement with classical similarity theory. However, the root-mean-square (r.m.s.) of the buoyancy fluctuation and the r.m.s. of the vertical velocity vary as z^{-0.45} and ln z, respectively, both in disagreement with theory. These scaling laws are independent of the stratification regime, but the depth over which they are valid depends on the stratification. In the strong stratification regime, this depth is about 20 to 25 % of the CBL depth instead of the commonly used 10 %, which we only observe under neutral conditions. In both regimes, the near-surface flow structure can be interpreted as a hierarchy of circulations attached to the surface. Based on this structure, we define a new near-surface layer in free convection, the plume-merging layer, that is conceptually different from the constant-flux layer. The varying depth of the plume-merging layer depending on the stratification accounts for the varying depth of validity of the scaling laws. These findings imply that the buoyancy transfer law needed in mixed-layer and single-column models is well described by the classical similarity theory, independent of the stratification in the free atmosphere, even though other near-surface properties, such as the r.m.s. of the buoyancy fluctuation and the r.m.s. of the vertical velocity, are inconsistent with that theory.

The effect of cost construction based on either DRG or ICD-9 codes or risk group stratification on the resulting cost-effectiveness ratios.

PubMed

Chumney, Elinor C G; Biddle, Andrea K; Simpson, Kit N; Weinberger, Morris; Magruder, Kathryn M; Zelman, William N

2004-01-01

As cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) are increasingly used to inform policy decisions, there is a need for more information on how different cost determination methods affect cost estimates and the degree to which the resulting cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs) may be affected. The lack of specificity of diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) could mean that they are ill-suited for costing applications in CEAs. Yet, the implications of using International Classification of Diseases-9th edition (ICD-9) codes or a form of disease-specific risk group stratification instead of DRGs has yet to be clearly documented. To demonstrate the implications of different disease coding mechanisms on costs and the magnitude of error that could be introduced in head-to-head comparisons of resulting CERs. We based our analyses on a previously published Markov model for HIV/AIDS therapies. We used the Healthcare Cost and Utilisation Project Nationwide Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS) data release 6, which contains all-payer data on hospital inpatient stays from selected states. We added costs for the mean number of hospitalisations, derived from analyses based on either DRG or ICD-9 codes or risk group stratification cost weights, to the standard outpatient and prescription drug costs to yield an estimate of total charges for each AIDS-defining illness (ADI). Finally, we estimated the Markov model three times with the appropriate ADI cost weights to obtain CERs specific to the use of either DRG or ICD-9 codes or risk group. Contrary to expectations, we found that the choice of coding/grouping assumptions that are disease-specific by either DRG codes, ICD-9 codes or risk group resulted in very similar CER estimates for highly active antiretroviral therapy. The large variations in the specific ADI cost weights across the three different coding approaches was especially interesting. However, because no one approach produced consistently higher estimates than the others, the Markov model's weighted

Comparison of different risk stratification systems in predicting short-term serious outcome of syncope patients

PubMed Central

Safari, Saeed; Baratloo, Alireza; Hashemi, Behrooz; Rahmati, Farhad; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Mehdi; Motamedi, Maryam; Mirmohseni, Ladan

2016-01-01

Background: Determining etiologic causes and prognosis can significantly improve management of syncope patients. The present study aimed to compare the values of San Francisco, Osservatorio Epidemiologico sulla Sincope nel Lazio (OESIL), Boston, and Risk Stratification of Syncope in the Emergency Department (ROSE) score clinical decision rules in predicting the short-term serious outcome of syncope patients. Materials and Methods: The present diagnostic accuracy study with 1-week follow-up was designed to evaluate the predictive values of the four mentioned clinical decision rules. Screening performance characteristics of each model in predicting mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), and cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) were calculated and compared. To evaluate the value of each aforementioned model in predicting the outcome, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio were calculated and receiver-operating curve (ROC) curve analysis was done. Results: A total of 187 patients (mean age: 64.2 ± 17.2 years) were enrolled in the study. Mortality, MI, and CVA were seen in 19 (10.2%), 12 (6.4%), and 36 (19.2%) patients, respectively. Area under the ROC curve for OESIL, San Francisco, Boston, and ROSE models in prediction the risk of 1-week mortality, MI, and CVA was in the 30–70% range, with no significant difference among models (P > 0.05). The pooled model did not show higher accuracy in prediction of mortality, MI, and CVA compared to others (P > 0.05). Conclusion: This study revealed the weakness of all four evaluated models in predicting short-term serious outcome of syncope patients referred to the emergency department without any significant advantage for one among others. PMID:27904602

Deglacial development of (sub) sea surface temperature and salinity in the subarctic northwest Pacific: Implications for upper-ocean stratification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riethdorf, Jan-Rainer; Max, Lars; Nürnberg, Dirk; Lembke-Jene, Lester; Tiedemann, Ralf

2013-01-01

Based on models and proxy data, it has been proposed that salinity-driven stratification weakened in the subarctic North Pacific during the last deglaciation, which potentially contributed to the deglacial rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide. We present high-resolution subsurface temperature (TMg/Ca) and subsurface salinity-approximating (δ18Oivc-sw) records across the last 20,000 years from the subarctic North Pacific and its marginal seas, derived from combined stable oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios of the planktonic foraminiferal species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sin.). Our results indicate regionally differing changes of subsurface conditions. During the Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas cold phases, our sites were subject to reduced thermal stratification, brine rejection due to sea-ice formation, and increased advection of low-salinity water from the Alaskan Stream. In contrast, the Bølling-Allerød warm phase was characterized by strengthened thermal stratification, stronger sea-ice melting, and influence of surface waters that were less diluted by the Alaskan Stream. From direct comparison with alkenone-based sea surface temperature estimates (SSTUk'37), we suggest deglacial thermocline changes that were closely related to changes in seasonal contrasts and stratification of the mixed layer. The modern upper-ocean conditions seem to have developed only since the early Holocene.

Integrated e-Health approach based on vascular ultrasound and pulse wave analysis for asymptomatic atherosclerosis detection and cardiovascular risk stratification in the community.

PubMed

Santana, Daniel Bia; Zócalo, Yanina A; Armentano, Ricardo L

2012-03-01

New strategies are urgently needed to identify subjects at increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ACVD) development or complications. A National Public University Center (CUiiDARTE) was created in Uruguay, based on six main pillars: 1) integration of experts in different disciplines and creation of multidisciplinary teams, 2) incidence in public and professional education programs to give training in the use of new technologies and to shift the focus from ACVD treatment to disease prevention, 3) implementation of free vascular studies in the community (distributed rather than centralized healthcare), 4) innovation and application of e-Health and noninvasive technology and approaches, 5) design and development of a biomedical approach to determine the target population and patient workflow, and 6) improvement in individual risk estimation and differentiation between aging and ACVD-related arterial changes using population-based epidemiological and statistical patient-specific models. This work describes main features of CUiiDARTE project implementation, the scientific and technological steps and innovations done for individual risk stratification, and sub-clinical ACVD diagnosis. © 2012 IEEE

Numerical Study of Wake Vortex Behavior in Turbulent Domains with Ambient Stratification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Switzer, George F.; Proctor, Fred H.

2000-01-01

A three-dimensional large eddy simulation model is used to investigate the sensitivity of ambient stratification with turbulence on the behavior of aircraft wake vortices. Modeled ambient turbulence levels range from very weak to moderate, and stratification levels range from strongly stable to unstable. The results of profound significance from this study are: 1) very little sensitivity between vortex linking time and the level of stratification, 2) the mean vortex separation remained nearly constant regardless of stratification and turbulence (at least prior to linking), 3) the wake vortices did not rise regardless of the level of stratification, and 4) for very strong stratification, the vortex stopped descending and quickly dissipated even before vortex linking could occur. These results are supported by experimental data and are contrary to conclusions from other numerical studies that assume laminar flow and/or relatively-low Reynolds numbers.

Polar ocean stratification in a cold climate.

PubMed

Sigman, Daniel M; Jaccard, Samuel L; Haug, Gerald H

2004-03-04

The low-latitude ocean is strongly stratified by the warmth of its surface water. As a result, the great volume of the deep ocean has easiest access to the atmosphere through the polar surface ocean. In the modern polar ocean during the winter, the vertical distribution of temperature promotes overturning, with colder water over warmer, while the salinity distribution typically promotes stratification, with fresher water over saltier. However, the sensitivity of seawater density to temperature is reduced as temperature approaches the freezing point, with potential consequences for global ocean circulation under cold climates. Here we present deep-sea records of biogenic opal accumulation and sedimentary nitrogen isotopic composition from the Subarctic North Pacific Ocean and the Southern Ocean. These records indicate that vertical stratification increased in both northern and southern high latitudes 2.7 million years ago, when Northern Hemisphere glaciation intensified in association with global cooling during the late Pliocene epoch. We propose that the cooling caused this increased stratification by weakening the role of temperature in polar ocean density structure so as to reduce its opposition to the stratifying effect of the vertical salinity distribution. The shift towards stratification in the polar ocean 2.7 million years ago may have increased the quantity of carbon dioxide trapped in the abyss, amplifying the global cooling.

Breakup of last glacial deep stratification in the South Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basak, Chandranath; Fröllje, Henning; Lamy, Frank; Gersonde, Rainer; Benz, Verena; Anderson, Robert F.; Molina-Kescher, Mario; Pahnke, Katharina

2018-02-01

Stratification of the deep Southern Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum is thought to have facilitated carbon storage and subsequent release during the deglaciation as stratification broke down, contributing to atmospheric CO2 rise. Here, we present neodymium isotope evidence from deep to abyssal waters in the South Pacific that confirms stratification of the deepwater column during the Last Glacial Maximum. The results indicate a glacial northward expansion of Ross Sea Bottom Water and a Southern Hemisphere climate trigger for the deglacial breakup of deep stratification. It highlights the important role of abyssal waters in sustaining a deep glacial carbon reservoir and Southern Hemisphere climate change as a prerequisite for the destabilization of the water column and hence the deglacial release of sequestered CO2 through upwelling.

Non-Rhabdomyosarcoma Soft Tissue Sarcomas in Children: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Analysis Validating COG Risk Stratifications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waxweiler, Timothy V., E-mail: timothy.waxweiler@ucdenver.edu; Rusthoven, Chad G.; Proper, Michelle S.

Purpose: Non-rhabdomyosarcoma soft tissue sarcomas (NRSTS) are a heterogeneous group of sarcomas that encompass over 35 histologies. With an incidence of ∼500 cases per year in the United States in those <20 years of age, NRSTS are rare and therefore difficult to study in pediatric populations. We used the large Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to validate the prognostic ability of the Children's Oncology Group (COG) risk classification system and to define patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. Methods and Materials: From SEER data from 1988 to 2007, we identified patients ≤18 years of age with NRSTS. Data for age, sex,more » year of diagnosis, race, registry, histology, grade, primary size, primary site, stage, radiation therapy, and survival outcomes were analyzed. Patients with nonmetastatic grossly resected low-grade tumors of any size or high-grade tumors ≤5 cm were considered low risk. Cases of nonmetastatic tumors that were high grade, >5 cm, or unresectable were considered intermediate risk. Patients with nodal or distant metastases were considered high risk. Results: A total of 941 patients met the review criteria. On univariate analysis, black race, malignant peripheral nerve sheath (MPNST) histology, tumors >5 cm, nonextremity primary, lymph node involvement, radiation therapy, and higher risk group were associated with significantly worse overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). On multivariate analysis, MPNST histology, chemotherapy-resistant histology, and higher risk group were significantly poor prognostic factors for OS and CSS. Compared to low-risk patients, intermediate patients showed poorer OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 6.08, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.53-10.47, P<.001) and CSS (HR: 6.27; 95% CI: 3.44-11.43, P<.001), and high-risk patients had the worst OS (HR: 13.35, 95% CI: 8.18-21.76, P<.001) and CSS (HR: 14.65, 95% CI: 8.49-25.28, P<.001). Conclusions: The current COG risk

Early childhood caries: risk-based disease prevention and management.

PubMed

Ng, Man Wai; Chase, Isabelle

2013-01-01

Early childhood caries (ECC), common in preschoolers, can lead to pain and infection if left untreated. Yet, ECC is largely preventable, and if it is identified early and the responsible risk factors are addressed, its progression can be halted or slowed. This article reviews the rationale for a first dental visit by age 1 year, caries risk assessment, and risk-based prevention and management of ECC and discusses strategies for providers to implement these contemporary evidence-based concepts into clinical practice. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The At Risk Child: Early Identification, Intervention, and Evaluation of Early Childhood Strategies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lennon, Joan M.

A review of literature was conducted in order to: (1) determine whether factors placing the young child at risk for school failure can be identified; (2) determine whether early family interventions and early childhood programs are effective; and (3) identify policy implications. Findings are summarized, and recommendations are offered. Research…

Comprehensive schoolteachers at risk of early exit from work.

PubMed

Mykletun, R J; Mykletun, A

1999-01-01

Risk of early exit from work for teachers was operationalized as high burnout scores, working part-time due to heavy burden and illness or working part-time while also receiving partial disability pension. Data were collected by mailed questionnaires in a cross-sectional study to a random sample of Norwegian comprehensive schoolteachers, response rate = 86% (N = 1860 valid cases). High age increased the risk of early exit from work, but for cynicism the age effect disappeared when sense of competence and stress were introduced in the regression model. Age had no effect for low professional efficacy. Sense of competence effected burnout, but actual competence level and the gap between actual competence and teaching obligations did not. Stress effected all measures of risk of early exit, especially exhaustion. Change as stress factor increased the exhaustion scores, and were also relevant to risk of having a part-time position, and/or partial disability pension.

Breast cancer risk accumulation starts early: prevention must also.

PubMed

Colditz, Graham A; Bohlke, Kari; Berkey, Catherine S

2014-06-01

Nearly one in four breast cancers is diagnosed before the age of 50, and many early-stage premalignant lesions are present but not yet diagnosed. Therefore, we review evidence to support the strategy that breast cancer prevention efforts must begin early in life. This study follows the literature review methods and format. Exposures during childhood and adolescence affect a woman's long-term risk of breast cancer, but have received far less research attention than exposures that occur later in life. Breast tissue undergoes rapid cellular proliferation between menarche and first full-term pregnancy, and risk accumulates rapidly until the terminal differentiation that accompanies first pregnancy. Evidence on childhood diet and growth in height, and adolescent alcohol intake, among other adolescent factors is related to breast cancer risk and risk of premalignant proliferative benign lesions. Breast cancer prevention efforts will have the greatest effect when initiated at an early age and continued over a lifetime. Gaps in knowledge are identified and deserve increase attention to inform prevention.

Risk assessment and clinical decision making for colorectal cancer screening.

PubMed

Schroy, Paul C; Caron, Sarah E; Sherman, Bonnie J; Heeren, Timothy C; Battaglia, Tracy A

2015-10-01

Shared decision making (SDM) related to test preference has been advocated as a potentially effective strategy for increasing adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet primary care providers (PCPs) are often reluctant to comply with patient preferences if they differ from their own. Risk stratification advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) provides a rational strategy for reconciling these differences. To assess the importance of risk stratification in PCP decision making related to test preference for average-risk patients and receptivity to use of an electronic risk assessment tool for ACN to facilitate SDM. Mixed methods, including qualitative key informant interviews and a cross-sectional survey. PCPs at an urban, academic safety-net institution. Screening preferences, factors influencing patient recommendations and receptivity to use of a risk stratification tool. Nine PCPs participated in interviews and 57 completed the survey. Despite an overwhelming preference for colonoscopy by 95% of respondents, patient risk (67%) and patient preferences (63%) were more influential in their decision making than patient comorbidities (31%; P < 0.001). Age was the single most influential risk factor (excluding family history), with <20% of respondents choosing factors other than age. Most respondents reported that they would be likely to use a risk stratification tool in their practice either 'often' (43%) or sometimes (53%). Risk stratification was perceived to be important in clinical decision making, yet few providers considered risk factors other than age for average-risk patients. Providers were receptive to the use of a risk assessment tool for ACN when recommending an appropriate screening test for select patients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Early Risk Factors of Overweight Developmental Trajectories during Middle Childhood

PubMed Central

Pryor, Laura E.; Brendgen, Mara; Tremblay, Richard E.; Pingault, Jean-Baptiste; Liu, Xuecheng; Dubois, Lise; Touchette, Evelyne; Falissard, Bruno; Boivin, Michel; Côté, Sylvana M.

2015-01-01

Background Research is needed to identify early life risk factors associated with different developmental paths leading to overweight by adolescence. Objectives To model heterogeneity in overweight development during middle childhood and identify factors associated with differing overweight trajectories. Methods Data was drawn from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development (QLSCD; 1998-2010). Trained research assistants measured height and weight according to a standardized protocol and conducted yearly home interviews with the child’s caregiver (mother in 98% of cases). Information on several putative early life risk factors for the development of overweight were obtained, including factors related to the child’s perinatal, early behavioral family and social environment. Group-based trajectories of the probability of overweight (6-12 years) were identified with a semiparametric method (n=1678). Logistic regression analyses were used to identify early risk factors (5 months- 5 years) associated with each trajectory. Results Three trajectories of overweight were identified: “early-onset overweight” (11.0 %), “late-onset overweight” (16.6%) and “never overweight” (72.5%). Multinomial analyses indicated that children in the early and late-onset group, compared to the never overweight group, had 3 common types of risk factors: parental overweight, preschool overweight history, and large size for gestational age. Maternal overprotection (OR= 1.12, CI: 1.01-1.25), short nighttime sleep duration (OR=1.66, CI: 1.07-2.57), and immigrant status (OR=2.01, CI: 1.05-3.84) were factors specific to the early-onset group. Finally, family food insufficiency (OR=1.81, CI: 1.00-3.28) was weakly associated with membership in the late-onset trajectory group. Conclusions The development of overweight in childhood follows two different trajectories, which have common and distinct risk factors that could be the target of early preventive interventions. PMID

Reaction-space analysis of homogeneous charge compression ignition combustion with varying levels of fuel stratification under positive and negative valve overlap conditions

DOE PAGES

Kodavasal, Janardhan; Lavoie, George A.; Assanis, Dennis N.; ...

2015-10-26

Full-cycle computational fluid dynamics simulations with gasoline chemical kinetics were performed to determine the impact of breathing and fuel injection strategies on thermal and compositional stratification, combustion and emissions during homogeneous charge compression ignition combustion. The simulations examined positive valve overlap and negative valve overlap strategies, along with fueling by port fuel injection and direct injection. The resulting charge mass distributions were analyzed prior to ignition using ignition delay as a reactivity metric. The reactivity stratification arising from differences in the distributions of fuel–oxygen equivalence ratio (Φ FO), oxygen molar fraction (χ O2) and temperature (T) was determined for threemore » parametric studies. In the first study, the reactivity stratification and burn duration for positive valve overlap valve events with port fuel injection and early direct injection were nearly identical and were dominated by wall-driven thermal stratification. nitrogen oxide (NO) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions were negligible for both injection strategies. In the second study, which examined negative valve overlap valve events with direct injection and port fuel injection, reactivity stratification increased for direct injection as the Φ FO and T distributions associated with direct fuel injection into the hot residual gas were positively correlated; however, the latent heat absorbed from the hot residual gas by the evaporating direct injection fuel jet reduced the overall thermal and reactivity stratification. These stratification effects were offsetting, resulting in similar reactivity stratification and burn durations for the two injection strategies. The higher local burned gas temperatures with direct injection resulted in an order of magnitude increase in NO, while incomplete combustion of locally over-lean regions led to a sevenfold increase in CO emissions compared to port fuel injection. The final

Early Adolescent Risk Behavior Outcomes of Childhood Externalizing Behavioral Trajectories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Richard; Tabone, Jiyoung Kim; Litrownik, Alan J.; Briggs, Ernestine C.; Hussey, Jon M.; English, Diana J.; Dubowitz, Howard

2011-01-01

Little is known about the early childhood indicators of adolescent risk. The link between trajectories of externalizing behavioral problems and early adolescent risk behavior was examined in a longitudinal sample of 875 child participants in the LONGSCAN studies. Five trajectory groups of children defined by externalizing behavior problems were…

Papanicolaou Society of Cytopathology new guidelines have a greater ability of risk stratification for pancreatic endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration specimens

PubMed Central

Chen, Bo; Zhao, Yu; Gu, Jiangang; Wu, Huanwen; Liang, Zhiyong; Meng, Zhilan

2017-01-01

The Papanicolaou Society of Cytopathology has recently proposed a standardized terminology and nomenclature guidelines for pancreatic cytology. However the risk of malignancy associated with the new guidelines has been scarcely studied. In this study, a series of pancreatic cytology cases obtained by endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration from 294 Chinese patients were retrospectively re-categorized into six categories according the new guidelines. The risks of malignancy were 18.1% for “negative,” 20.0% for “neoplastic,” 57.1% for “nondiagnostic,” 69.2% for “atypical,” 87.5% for “suspicious,” and 100.0% for “positive” respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93 (95% Confidence Interval, 0.90-0.96), which was significantly higher than that associated with old classification system (0.82; 95% Confidence Interval, 0.77-0.87) conventionally used in China. Our investigation demonstrated that the new guidelines have a greater ability of risk stratification than the old classification system conventionally used in China. This may be helpful in giving better predictions of malignancy, thus leading to more personalized treatment strategies. PMID:28042957

Acute myeloid leukemia: 2013 update on risk-stratification and management.

PubMed

Estey, Elihu H

2013-04-01

RNA) expression also affect resistance as do post treatment factors, in particular the presence of minimal residual disease. These newer mutations and MRD are discussed in this update. Patients with inv (16) or t(8;21) or who are NPM1+/FLT3ITD-can receive standard therapy (daunorubicin + cytarabine) and should not receive HCT in first CR. It seems likely that use of a daily daunorubicin dose of 90 mg/m(2) will further improve outcome in these patients. There appears no reason to use doses of cytarabine > 1 g/m(2) (for example bid X 6 days), as opposed to the more commonly used 3 g/m(2) . Patients with an unfavorable karyotype (particularly MK) are unlikely to benefit from standard therapy (even with dose escalation) and are thus prime candidates for clinical trials of new drugs or new approaches to HCT; the latter should be done in first CR. Patients with intermediate prognoses (for example NK and NPM and FLT3ITD negative) should also receive HCT in first CR and can plausibly receive either investigational or standard induction therapy, with the same prognostic information about standard therapy leading one patient to choose the standard and another an investigational option. This update discusses results with newer agents: quizartinib and crenolanib, gemtuzumab ozogamicin, clofarabine and cladribine, azacitidine and decitabine, volasertib, and means to prevent relapse after allogeneic transplant. The diagnosis of AML essentially is made as it was in 2012. Thus this review will emphasize new developments in risk stratification and treatment using as references many papers published in 2012. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Coronary Artery Calcium Scores and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Stratification in Smokers: MESA.

PubMed

Leigh, Adam; McEvoy, John W; Garg, Parveen; Carr, J Jeffrey; Sandfort, Veit; Oelsner, Elizabeth C; Budoff, Matthew; Herrington, David; Yeboah, Joseph

2018-02-09

This study assessed the utility of the pooled cohort equation (PCE) and/or coronary artery calcium (CAC) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk assessment in smokers, especially those who were lung cancer screening eligible (LCSE). The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommended and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services currently pays for annual screening for lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography scans in a specified group of cigarette smokers. CAC can be obtained from these low-dose scans. The incremental utility of CAC for ASCVD risk stratification remains unclear in this high-risk group. Of 6,814 MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) participants, 3,356 (49.2% of total cohort) were smokers (2,476 former and 880 current), and 14.3% were LCSE. Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazards, area under the curve, and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analyses were used to assess the association between PCE and/or CAC and incident ASCVD. Incident ASCVD was defined as coronary death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or fatal or nonfatal stroke. Smokers had a mean age of 62.1 years, 43.5% were female, and all had a mean of 23.0 pack-years of smoking. The LCSE sample had a mean age of 65.3 years, 39.1% were female, and all had a mean of 56.7 pack-years of smoking. After a mean of 11.1 years of follow-up 13.4% of all smokers and 20.8% of LCSE smokers had ASCVD events; 6.7% of all smokers and 14.2% of LCSE smokers with CAC = 0 had an ASCVD event during the follow-up. One SD increase in the PCE 10-year risk was associated with a 68% increase risk for ASCVD events in all smokers (hazard ratio: 1.68; 95% confidence interval: 1.57 to 1.80) and a 22% increase in risk for ASCVD events in the LCSE smokers (hazard ratio: 1.22; 95% confidence interval: 1.00 to 1.47). CAC was associated with increased ASCVD risk in all smokers and in LCSE smokers in all the Cox models. The C-statistic of the PCE for ASCVD was higher in all

Vitamin D and calcium intake and risk of early menopause12

PubMed Central

Purdue-Smithe, Alexandra C; Whitcomb, Brian W; Szegda, Kathleen L; Boutot, Maegan E; Manson, JoAnn E; Hankinson, Susan E; Rosner, Bernard A; Troy, Lisa M; Michels, Karin B; Bertone-Johnson, Elizabeth R

2017-01-01

Background: Early menopause, defined as the cessation of ovarian function before the age of 45 y, affects ∼10% of women and is associated with higher risk of cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, and other conditions. Few modifiable risk factors for early menopause have been identified, but emerging data suggest that high vitamin D intake may reduce risk. Objective: We evaluated how intakes of vitamin D and calcium are associated with the incidence of early menopause in the prospective Nurses’ Health Study II (NHS2). Design: Intakes of vitamin D and calcium from foods and supplements were measured every 4 y with the use of a food-frequency questionnaire. Cases of incident early menopause were identified from all participants who were premenopausal at baseline in 1991; over 1.13 million person-years, 2041 women reported having natural menopause before the age of 45 y. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate relations between intakes of vitamin D and calcium and incident early menopause while accounting for potential confounding factors. Results: After adjustment for age, smoking, and other factors, women with the highest intake of dietary vitamin D (quintile median: 528 IU/d) had a significant 17% lower risk of early menopause than women with the lowest intake [quintile median: 148 IU/d; HR: 0.83 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.95); P-trend = 0.03]. Dietary calcium intake in the highest quintile (median: 1246 mg/d) compared with the lowest (median: 556 mg/d) was associated with a borderline significantly lower risk of early menopause (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76, 1.00; P-trend = 0.03). Associations were stronger for vitamin D and calcium from dairy sources than from nondairy dietary sources, whereas high supplement use was not associated with lower risk. Conclusions: Findings suggest that high intakes of dietary vitamin D and calcium may be modestly associated with a lower risk of early menopause. Further studies evaluating 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations, other

CYR61 and TAZ Upregulation and Focal Epithelial to Mesenchymal Transition May Be Early Predictors of Barrett's Esophagus Malignant Progression.

PubMed

Cardoso, Joana; Mesquita, Marta; Dias Pereira, António; Bettencourt-Dias, Mónica; Chaves, Paula; Pereira-Leal, José B

2016-01-01

Barrett's esophagus is the major risk factor for esophageal adenocarcinoma. It has a low but non-neglectable risk, high surveillance costs and no reliable risk stratification markers. We sought to identify early biomarkers, predictive of Barrett's malignant progression, using a meta-analysis approach on gene expression data. This in silico strategy was followed by experimental validation in a cohort of patients with extended follow up from the Instituto Português de Oncologia de Lisboa de Francisco Gentil EPE (Portugal). Bioinformatics and systems biology approaches singled out two candidate predictive markers for Barrett's progression, CYR61 and TAZ. Although previously implicated in other malignancies and in epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition phenotypes, our experimental validation shows for the first time that CYR61 and TAZ have the potential to be predictive biomarkers for cancer progression. Experimental validation by reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR and immunohistochemistry confirmed the up-regulation of both genes in Barrett's samples associated with high-grade dysplasia/adenocarcinoma. In our cohort CYR61 and TAZ up-regulation ranged from one to ten years prior to progression to adenocarcinoma in Barrett's esophagus index samples. Finally, we found that CYR61 and TAZ over-expression is correlated with early focal signs of epithelial to mesenchymal transition. Our results highlight both CYR61 and TAZ genes as potential predictive biomarkers for stratification of the risk for development of adenocarcinoma and suggest a potential mechanistic route for Barrett's esophagus neoplastic progression.

Occupational, social and medical characteristics of early prenatal leave in France.

PubMed

Vigoureux, Solène; Blondel, Béatrice; Ringa, Virginie; Saurel-Cubizolles, Marie-Josèphe

2016-12-01

In France, most women of childbearing age work. The prenatal leave law in France protects women during pregnancy and their employment. We aimed to describe how long before delivery women stopped working and analyse the association between occupational, social and medical factors and early prenatal leave (before 24 weeks' gestation). The sample was extracted from the 2010 French National Perinatal Survey. Women were interviewed in French maternity units during a 1-week period. We focused on all women with a singleton live birth who were working during pregnancy (n = 10 149). Women were interviewed between delivery and discharge to collect information on employment, date of leave, sociodemographic and medical characteristics. Among women who worked during pregnancy, 27.5% reported early occupational leave (before 24 weeks' gestation). Early occupational leave was more frequent among women with unstable jobs (fixed-term vs. non-fixed-term contract: adjusted odds ratio aOR = 1.60 [95% confidence interval 1.40-1.84]) and with less-qualified occupational categories (manual workers vs. managers and upper-intellectual positions: aOR = 2.96 [2.30-3.82]), even after adjusting for sociodemographic and other employment characteristics. Women with a pathological or at risk pregnancy left work earlier than other women. After stratification on type of pregnancy there was still a higher rate of early leave for women with less qualified occupational group. In France, social vulnerability of pregnant women, linked to low sociodemographic situation or low occupational categories, is associated with early leave during pregnancy, even after stratification on type of pregnancy. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation: Attention to modifiable bleeding risk factors or use of a bleeding risk stratification score? A nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Chao, Tze-Fan; Lip, Gregory Y H; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chen, Shih-Ann

2018-03-01

While modifiable bleeding risks should be addressed in all patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), use of a bleeding risk score enables clinicians to 'flag up' those at risk of bleeding for more regular patient contact reviews. We compared a risk assessment strategy for major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) based on modifiable bleeding risk factors (referred to as a 'MBR factors' score) against established bleeding risk stratification scores (HEMORR 2 HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT). A nationwide cohort study of 40,450 AF patients who received warfarin for stroke prevention was performed. The clinical endpoints included ICH and major bleeding. Bleeding scores were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (areas under the ROC curves [AUCs], or c-index) and the net reclassification index (NRI). During a follow up of 4.60±3.62years, 1581 (3.91%) patients sustained ICH and 6889 (17.03%) patients sustained major bleeding events. All tested bleeding risk scores at baseline were higher in those sustaining major bleeds. When compared to no ICH, patients sustaining ICH had higher baseline HEMORR 2 HAGES (p=0.003), HAS-BLED (p<0.001) and MBR factors score (p=0.013) but not ATRIA and ORBIT scores. When HAS-BLED was compared to other bleeding scores, c-indexes were significantly higher compared to MBR factors (p<0.001) and ORBIT (p=0.05) scores for major bleeding. C-indexes for the MBR factors score was significantly lower compared to all other scores (De long test, all p<0.001). When NRI was performed, HAS-BLED outperformed all other bleeding risk scores for major bleeding (all p<0.001). C-indexes for ATRIA and ORBIT scores suggested no significant prediction for ICH. All contemporary bleeding risk scores had modest predictive value for predicting major bleeding but the best predictive value and NRI was found for the HAS-BLED score. Simply depending on modifiable bleeding risk factors had suboptimal predictive value for the prediction of major

Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

2014-12-01

Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

Sexual Risk Behavior in Young Adulthood: Broadening the Scope Beyond Early Sexual Initiation

PubMed Central

Epstein, Marina; Bailey, Jennifer A.; Manhart, Lisa E.; Hill, Karl G.; Hawkins, J. David

2013-01-01

A robust link between early sexual initiation and sexual risk-taking behavior is reported in previous studies. The relationship may not be causal, however, as the effect of common risk factors is often not considered. The current study examined whether early initiation is a key predictor of risky sexual behavior in the 20s and 30s, over and above co-occurring individual and environmental factors. Data were drawn from the Seattle Social Development Project, a longitudinal panel of 808 youth. Early predictors (ages 10–15) and sexual risk-taking (ages 21–24 and 30–33) were assessed prospectively. Early sexual initiation (before age 15) was entered into a series of probit regressions that also included family, neighborhood, peer, and individual risk factors. Although a positive bivariate relation between early sexual initiation and sexual risk-taking was observed at both ages, the link did not persist when co-occurring risk factors were included. Behavioral disinhibition and antisocial peer influences emerged as the strongest predictors of sexual risk over and above early sexual initiation. These results suggest that early sexual initiation must be considered in the context of common antecedents; public health policy aimed at delaying sexual intercourse alone is unlikely to substantially reduce sexual risk behavior in young adulthood. PMID:24423058

Unanswered questions for management of acute coronary syndrome: risk stratification of patients with minimal disease or normal findings on coronary angiography.

PubMed

Bugiardini, Raffaele; Manfrini, Olivia; De Ferrari, Gaetano M

2006-07-10

The prognostic implication of chest pain associated with normal or near-normal findings on angiography is still unknown. We explored outcomes and methods of risk stratification in patients with nonobstructive coronary artery disease in the setting of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes. Data were pooled from 3 Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) trials (TIMI 11B, TIMI 16, and TIMI 22). Angiographic data were available on 7656 patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes. The primary end point of this analysis was the composite of the rates of death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina requiring rehospitalization, revascularization, and stroke at 1-year follow-up. Outcomes were evaluated by mean of the TIMI risk score for developing at least 1 component of the primary end point. Angiographic findings showed that 710 (9.1%) of 7656 patients had nonobstructive coronary artery disease; 48.7% of these had normal coronary arteries (0% stenosis), and 51.3% had mild coronary artery disease (>0% to <50% stenosis). A primary end-point event occurred in 101 patients (12.1%). It is noteworthy that a 2% event rate of deaths and myocardial infarctions had occurred in these patients at the 1-year follow-up. Event rates of death and myocardial infarction increased significantly as the TIMI risk score increased from 0.6% for a score of 1 to 4.0% for a score greater than 4. Patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes with nonobstructive coronary artery disease detected by angiography have a substantial risk of subsequent coronary events within 1 year. The risk is not univariately high, and the TIMI risk score helps to reveal patients at high risk.

Principal stratification in causal inference.

PubMed

Frangakis, Constantine E; Rubin, Donald B

2002-03-01

Many scientific problems require that treatment comparisons be adjusted for posttreatment variables, but the estimands underlying standard methods are not causal effects. To address this deficiency, we propose a general framework for comparing treatments adjusting for posttreatment variables that yields principal effects based on principal stratification. Principal stratification with respect to a posttreatment variable is a cross-classification of subjects defined by the joint potential values of that posttreatment variable tinder each of the treatments being compared. Principal effects are causal effects within a principal stratum. The key property of principal strata is that they are not affected by treatment assignment and therefore can be used just as any pretreatment covariate. such as age category. As a result, the central property of our principal effects is that they are always causal effects and do not suffer from the complications of standard posttreatment-adjusted estimands. We discuss briefly that such principal causal effects are the link between three recent applications with adjustment for posttreatment variables: (i) treatment noncompliance, (ii) missing outcomes (dropout) following treatment noncompliance. and (iii) censoring by death. We then attack the problem of surrogate or biomarker endpoints, where we show, using principal causal effects, that all current definitions of surrogacy, even when perfectly true, do not generally have the desired interpretation as causal effects of treatment on outcome. We go on to forrmulate estimands based on principal stratification and principal causal effects and show their superiority.

Risk stratification and prognostic performance of the predisposition, infection, response, and organ dysfunction (PIRO) scoring system in septic patients in the emergency department: a cohort study.

PubMed

Chen, Yun-Xia; Li, Chun-Sheng

2014-04-16

The predisposition, infection, response and organ dysfunction (PIRO) staging system was designed as a stratification tool to deal with the inherent heterogeneity of septic patients. The present study was conducted to assess the performance of PIRO in predicting multiple organ dysfunction (MOD), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and 28-day mortality in septic patients in the emergency department (ED), and to compare this scoring system with the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) scores. Consecutive septic patients (n = 680) admitted to the ED of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital were enrolled. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores were calculated for each patient on ED arrival. Organ function was reassessed within 3 days of enrollment. All patients were followed up for 28 days. Outcome criteria were the development of MOD within 3 days, ICU admission or death within 28 days after enrollment. The predictive ability of the four components of PIRO was analyzed separately. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and logistic regression analysis were used to assess the prognostic and risk stratification value of the scoring systems. Organ dysfunction independently predicted ICU admission, MOD, and 28-day mortality, with areas under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.888, 0.851, and 0.816, respectively. The predictive value of predisposition, infection, and response was weaker than that of organ dysfunction. A negative correlation was found between the response component and MOD, as well as mortality. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores significantly differed between patients who did and did not meet the outcome criteria (P < 0.001). PIRO and APACHE II independently predicted ICU admission and MOD, but MEDS did not. All three systems were independent predictors of 28-day mortality with similar AUC values. The AUC of PIRO was 0.889 for ICU admission, 0.817 for MOD, and 0.744 for 28-day mortality. The AUCs

Prognostic value of the Ortho Vitros cardiac troponin I assay in patients with symptoms of myocardial ischemia. Risk stratification using European Society of Cardiology/American College of Cardiology recommended cutoff values.

PubMed

Apple, Fred S; Murakami, MaryAnn M; Quist, Heidi H; Pearce, Lesly A; Wieczorek, Stacey; Wu, Alan H B

2003-07-01

We evaluated the risk assessment value of a commercial cardiac troponin (cTn; Ortho Vitros ECi, Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics, Raritan, NJ) I assay in patients with symptoms of myocardial ischemia suggestive of acute coronary syndrome and compared findings with those for a commercial cTnT assay in the same population. The cTn levels were measured by both assays in plasma samples from 273 patients during 24 hours after admission. Baseline and maximum concentrations were used for risk stratification; cutoffs were the 99th percentile and 10% coefficient of variation. End points were all-cause death and cardiac events within 60 days. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models and Kaplan-Meier curves. RRs of cardiac events and death were significantly higher with increased baseline and maximum concentrations using either cTnI cutoff. The respective mortality rates for baseline cTnI of more than 0.08 microgram/L vs 0.08 microgram/L or less were 17.4% vs 2.9% (P = .001); cardiac event rates were 11.5% vs 3.6% (P = .03). Exclusion of patients with ST-segment elevation had no significant effect on rates for either assay. Mortality was higher in the intermediate (0.09-0.2 microgram/L) than in the low (< or = 0.08 microgram/L) group for cTnI, with directionally similar results for cTnT. Our findings validate the Ortho cTnI assay as a risk stratification biomarker in patients with symptoms of myocardial ischemia.

Positive and negative reinforcement underlying risk behavior in early adolescents.

PubMed

MacPherson, Laura; Reynolds, Elizabeth K; Daughters, Stacey B; Wang, Frances; Cassidy, Jude; Mayes, Linda C; Lejuez, C W

2010-09-01

The goal of the current study was to examine the combined influence of positive reinforcement processes using a behavioral task measuring risk taking propensity (RTP) and negative reinforcement processes using a behavioral task measuring deficits in distress tolerance (DT) on a range of risk taking behaviors among early adolescents. Participants included a community sample of 230 early adolescents (aged 9-13) who completed two behavioral tasks assessing reinforcement processes as well as reported on past year risk behavior involvement as assessed by items from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System at a baseline and a 1-year follow-up assessment. Data indicated that at the Wave 2 assessment, RTP was positively related to number of risk-taking behaviors in the past year but only for those with low DT, with this finding persisting after controlling for the significant influence of male gender and higher sensation seeking. Results of the present study highlight the importance of considering both positive and negative reinforcement processes in combination when investigating vulnerability factors for early risk behavior engagement in youth.

CYR61 and TAZ Upregulation and Focal Epithelial to Mesenchymal Transition May Be Early Predictors of Barrett’s Esophagus Malignant Progression

PubMed Central

Mesquita, Marta; Dias Pereira, António; Bettencourt-Dias, Mónica; Chaves, Paula; Pereira-Leal, José B.

2016-01-01

Barrett’s esophagus is the major risk factor for esophageal adenocarcinoma. It has a low but non-neglectable risk, high surveillance costs and no reliable risk stratification markers. We sought to identify early biomarkers, predictive of Barrett’s malignant progression, using a meta-analysis approach on gene expression data. This in silico strategy was followed by experimental validation in a cohort of patients with extended follow up from the Instituto Português de Oncologia de Lisboa de Francisco Gentil EPE (Portugal). Bioinformatics and systems biology approaches singled out two candidate predictive markers for Barrett’s progression, CYR61 and TAZ. Although previously implicated in other malignancies and in epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition phenotypes, our experimental validation shows for the first time that CYR61 and TAZ have the potential to be predictive biomarkers for cancer progression. Experimental validation by reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR and immunohistochemistry confirmed the up-regulation of both genes in Barrett’s samples associated with high-grade dysplasia/adenocarcinoma. In our cohort CYR61 and TAZ up-regulation ranged from one to ten years prior to progression to adenocarcinoma in Barrett’s esophagus index samples. Finally, we found that CYR61 and TAZ over-expression is correlated with early focal signs of epithelial to mesenchymal transition. Our results highlight both CYR61 and TAZ genes as potential predictive biomarkers for stratification of the risk for development of adenocarcinoma and suggest a potential mechanistic route for Barrett’s esophagus neoplastic progression. PMID:27583562

Risk stratification for large artery or chronic coronary artery disease-related ischemic stroke in octogenarians undergoing exercise stress myocardial perfusion imaging: A cohort study.

PubMed

Katsikis, Athanasios; Theodorakos, Athanasios; Drosatos, Alexandros; Konstantinou, Konstantinos; Papaioannou, Spyridon; Koutelou, Maria

2017-04-01

To test, if in octogenarians, treadmill exercise with myocardial perfusion imaging (exercise-MPI) can risk stratify for large artery or chronic CAD-related ischemic stroke (LACCIS). Exercise-MPI-related data of 237 octogenarians (55% prior MI or revascularization) without previous stroke were registered and prospective follow-up was performed to document LACCIS. LACCIS was defined as acute onset of neurological symptoms with CT/MRI findings of non-lacunar-type infarcts in the absence of atrial fibrillation or intracardiac embolic sources. After 7.3 years, 10 LACCIS were documented. SSS [HR 1.08 (1.02-1.13 95% CIs), SDS [HR 1.1 (1.04-1.16 95% CIs)], and non-sustained VT or transient AV block during exercise [HR 3.9 (1.7-9.0 95% CIs)] were predictors of LACCIS (P < .01 for all). A SSS threshold of 16 had 81% specificity for identification of future LACCIS and risk groups formed according to this cut-off had significantly different LACCIS-free survival (P = .015). Exercise-MPI in octogenarians can provide risk stratification markers for LACCIS.

Predicting the risk of sudden cardiac death.

PubMed

Lerma, Claudia; Glass, Leon

2016-05-01

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the result of a change of cardiac activity from normal (typically sinus) rhythm to a rhythm that does not pump adequate blood to the brain. The most common rhythms leading to SCD are ventricular tachycardia (VT) or ventricular fibrillation (VF). These result from an accelerated ventricular pacemaker or ventricular reentrant waves. Despite significant efforts to develop accurate predictors for the risk of SCD, current methods for risk stratification still need to be improved. In this article we briefly review current approaches to risk stratification. Then we discuss the mathematical basis for dynamical transitions (called bifurcations) that may lead to VT and VF. One mechanism for transition to VT or VF involves a perturbation by a premature ventricular complex (PVC) during sinus rhythm. We describe the main mechanisms of PVCs (reentry, independent pacemakers and abnormal depolarizations). An emerging approach to risk stratification for SCD involves the development of individualized dynamical models of a patient based on measured anatomy and physiology. Careful analysis and modelling of dynamics of ventricular arrhythmia on an individual basis will be essential in order to improve risk stratification for SCD and to lay a foundation for personalized (precision) medicine in cardiology. © 2015 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2015 The Physiological Society.

Childhood Risk Factors for Early-Onset Drinking*

PubMed Central

Donovan, John E.; Molina, Brooke S. G.

2011-01-01

Objective: There is relatively little research on the childhood antecedent predictors of early-onset alcohol use. This study examined an array of psychosocial variables assessed at age 10 and reflecting Problem Behavior Theory as potential antecedent risk factors for the initiation of alcohol use at age 14 or younger. Method: A sample of 452 children (238 girls) ages 8 or 10 and their families was drawn from Allegheny County, PA, using targeted-age directory sampling and random-digit dialing procedures. Children and parents were interviewed using computer-assisted interviews. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine the age-10 univariate and multivariate predictors of the initiation of alcohol use by age 14 or younger. Results: Twenty-five percent of the sample reported having more than a sip or a taste of alcohol in their life by age 14. Sex, race, and age cohort did not relate to early drinking status. Children with two parents were less likely to initiate drinking early. Early initiation of drinking related significantly to an array of antecedent risk factors (personality, social environment, and behavioral) assessed at age 10 that reflect psychosocial proneness for problem behavior. In the multivariate model, the variables most predictive of early-onset drinking were having a single parent, sipping or tasting alcohol by age 10, having parents who also started drinking at an early age, and parental drinking frequency. Conclusions: Initiation of alcohol use by age 14 reflects childhood psychosocial proneness to engage in problem behavior as measured by Problem Behavior Theory and having a family environment conducive to alcohol use. PMID:21906502

Sensitive periods of substance abuse: Early risk for the transition to dependence

PubMed Central

Jordan, Chloe J.; Andersen, Susan L.

2016-01-01

Early adolescent substance use dramatically increases the risk of lifelong substance use disorder (SUD). An adolescent sensitive period evolved to allow the development of risk-taking traits that aid in survival; today these may manifest as a vulnerability to drugs of abuse. Early substance use interferes with ongoing neurodevelopment to induce neurobiological changes that further augment SUD risk. Although many individuals use drugs recreationally, only a small percentage transition to SUD. Current theories on the etiology of addiction can lend insights into the risk factors that increase vulnerability from early recreational use to addiction. Building on the work of others, we suggest individual risk for SUD emerges from an immature PFC combined with hyper-reactivity of reward salience, habit, and stress systems. Early identification of risk factors is critical to reducing the occurrence of SUD. We suggest preventative interventions for SUD that can be either tailored to individual risk profiles and/or implemented broadly, prior to the sensitive adolescent period, to maximize resilience to developing substance dependence. Recommendations for future research include a focus on the juvenile and adolescent periods as well as on sex differences to better understand early risk and identify the most efficacious preventions for SUD. PMID:27840157

Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2011-12-01

Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have

Current indications for transplantation: stratification of severe heart failure and shared decision-making.

PubMed

Vucicevic, Darko; Honoris, Lily; Raia, Federica; Deng, Mario

2018-01-01

Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome that results from structural or functional cardiovascular disorders causing a mismatch between demand and supply of oxygenated blood and consecutive failure of the body's organs. For those patients with stage D HF, advanced therapies, such as mechanical circulatory support (MCS) or heart transplantation (HTx), are potentially life-saving options. The role of risk stratification of patients with stage D HF in a value-based healthcare framework is to predict which subset might benefit from advanced HF (AdHF) therapies, to improve outcomes related to the individual patient including mortality, morbidity and patient experience as well as to optimize health care delivery system outcomes such as cost-effectiveness. Risk stratification and subsequent outcome prediction as well as therapeutic recommendation-making need to be based on the comparative survival benefit rationale. A robust model needs to (I) have the power to discriminate (i.e., to correctly risk stratify patients); (II) calibrate (i.e., to show agreement between the predicted and observed risk); (III) to be applicable to the general population; and (IV) provide good external validation. The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS) are two of the most widely utilized scores. However, outcomes for patients with HF are highly variable which make clinical predictions challenging. Despite our clinical expertise and current prediction tools, the best short- and long-term survival for the individual patient, particularly the sickest patient, is not easy to identify because among the most severely ill, elderly and frail patients, most preoperative prediction tools have the tendency to be imprecise in estimating risk. They should be used as a guide in a clinical encounter grounded in a culture of shared decision-making, with the expert healthcare professional team as consultants and the patient as an empowered decision-maker in a

Effect of date of cone collection and stratification period on germination and growth of Douglas-fir seeds and seedlings.

Treesearch

Frank C. Sorensen

1980-01-01

Low-elevation seeds collected 6 and 2 weeks before assumed natural seed fall were stratified 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, and 123 days and germinated in the laboratory. Germinated seeds from all stratification periods were sown at the same time in the nursery bed. Germination and seedling measurements were taken over two growing seasons.Early collection gave...

Utility of both Carotid Intima-media Thickness and Endothelial Function for Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Angina-like Symptoms

PubMed Central

Matsuzawa, Yasushi; Svedlund, Sara; Aoki, Tatsuo; Guddeti, Raviteja R.; Kwon, Taek-Geun; Cilluffo, Rebecca; Widmer, R.Jay.; Nelson, Rebecca E.; Lennon, Ryan J.; Lerman, Lilach O.; Gao, Sinsia; Ganz, Peter; Gan, Li-Ming; Lerman, Amir

2015-01-01

Background Myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) is used widely to assess cardiovascular risk in patients with chest pain. The utility of carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and endothelial function as assessed by reactive hyperemia-peripheral arterial tonometry index (RHI) in risk stratifying patients with angina-like symptom needs to be defined. We investigated whether addition of CIMT and RHI to Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score (FCVRS) and MPS improves comprehensive cardiovascular risk prediction in patients presenting with angina-like symptom. Methods We enrolled 343 consecutive patients with angina-like symptom suspected of having stable angina. MPS, CIMT, and RHI were performed and patients were followed for cardiovascular events for a median of 5.3 years (range 4.4-6.2). Patients were stratified by FCVRS and MPS. Results During the follow-up, 57 patients (16.6%) had cardiovascular events. Among patients without perfusion defect, low RHI was significantly associated with cardiovascular events in the intermediate and high FCVRS groups (Hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] of RHI≤2.11 was 6.99 [1.34-128] in the intermediate FCVRS group and 6.08 [1.08-114] in the high FCVRS group). Furthermore, although MPS did not predict, only RHI predicted hard cardiovascular events (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke) independent from FCVRS, and adding RHI to FCVRS improved net reclassification index (20.9%, 95% CI 0.8-41.1, p=0.04). Especially, RHI was significantly associated with hard cardiovascular events in the high FCVRS group (HR [95% CI] of RHI≤1.93 was 5.66 [1.54-36.4], p=0.007). Conclusions Peripheral endothelial function may improve discrimination in identifying at-risk patients for future cardiovascular events when added to FCVRS-MPS-based risk stratification. PMID:25918056

Temperature Stratification in a Cryogenic Fuel Tank

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew John; Smelyanskiy, Vadim; Boschee, Jacob; Foygel, Michael Gregory

2013-01-01

A reduced dynamical model describing temperature stratification effects driven by natural convection in a liquid hydrogen cryogenic fuel tank has been developed. It accounts for cryogenic propellant loading, storage, and unloading in the conditions of normal, increased, and micro- gravity. The model involves multiple horizontal control volumes in both liquid and ullage spaces. Temperature and velocity boundary layers at the tank walls are taken into account by using correlation relations. Heat exchange involving the tank wall is considered by means of the lumped-parameter method. By employing basic conservation laws, the model takes into consideration the major multi-phase mass and energy exchange processes involved, such as condensation-evaporation of the hydrogen, as well as flows of hydrogen liquid and vapor in the presence of pressurizing helium gas. The model involves a liquid hydrogen feed line and a tank ullage vent valve for pressure control. The temperature stratification effects are investigated, including in the presence of vent valve oscillations. A simulation of temperature stratification effects in a generic cryogenic tank has been implemented in Matlab and results are presented for various tank conditions.

Drainage and Stratification Kinetics of Foam Films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yiran; Sharma, Vivek

2014-03-01

Baking bread, brewing cappuccino, pouring beer, washing dishes, shaving, shampooing, whipping eggs and blowing bubbles all involve creation of aqueous foam films. Foam lifetime, drainage kinetics and stability are strongly influenced by surfactant type (ionic vs non-ionic), and added proteins, particles or polymers modify typical responses. The rate at which fluid drains out from a foam film, i.e. drainage kinetics, is determined in the last stages primarily by molecular interactions and capillarity. Interestingly, for certain low molecular weight surfactants, colloids and polyelectrolyte-surfactant mixtures, a layered ordering of molecules, micelles or particles inside the foam films leads to a stepwise thinning phenomena called stratification. Though stratification is observed in many confined systems including foam films containing particles or polyelectrolytes, films containing globular proteins seem not to show this behavior. Using a Scheludko-type cell, we experimentally study the drainage and stratification kinetics of horizontal foam films formed by protein-surfactant mixtures, and carefully determine how the presence of proteins influences the hydrodynamics and thermodynamics of foam films.

Comparison of EHR-based diagnosis documentation locations to a gold standard for risk stratification in patients with multiple chronic conditions.

PubMed

Martin, Shelby; Wagner, Jesse; Lupulescu-Mann, Nicoleta; Ramsey, Katrina; Cohen, Aaron; Graven, Peter; Weiskopf, Nicole G; Dorr, David A

2017-08-02

To measure variation among four different Electronic Health Record (EHR) system documentation locations versus 'gold standard' manual chart review for risk stratification in patients with multiple chronic illnesses. Adults seen in primary care with EHR evidence of at least one of 13 conditions were included. EHRs were manually reviewed to determine presence of active diagnoses, and risk scores were calculated using three different methodologies and five EHR documentation locations. Claims data were used to assess cost and utilization for the following year. Descriptive and diagnostic statistics were calculated for each EHR location. Criterion validity testing compared the gold standard verified diagnoses versus other EHR locations and risk scores in predicting future cost and utilization. Nine hundred patients had 2,179 probable diagnoses. About 70% of the diagnoses from the EHR were verified by gold standard. For a subset of patients having baseline and prediction year data (n=750), modeling showed that the gold standard was the best predictor of outcomes on average for a subset of patients that had these data. However, combining all data sources together had nearly equivalent performance for prediction as the gold standard. EHR data locations were inaccurate 30% of the time, leading to improvement in overall modeling from a gold standard from chart review for individual diagnoses. However, the impact on identification of the highest risk patients was minor, and combining data from different EHR locations was equivalent to gold standard performance. The reviewer's ability to identify a diagnosis as correct was influenced by a variety of factors, including completeness, temporality, and perceived accuracy of chart data.

Predictive risk stratification model: a progressive cluster-randomised trial in chronic conditions management (PRISMATIC) research protocol

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background An ageing population increases demand on health and social care. New approaches are needed to shift care from hospital to community and general practice. A predictive risk stratification tool (Prism) has been developed for general practice that estimates risk of an emergency hospital admission in the following year. We present a protocol for the evaluation of Prism. Methods/Design We will undertake a mixed methods progressive cluster-randomised trial. Practices begin as controls, delivering usual care without Prism. Practices will receive Prism and training randomly, and thereafter be able to use Prism with clinical and technical support. We will compare costs, processes of care, satisfaction and patient outcomes at baseline, 6 and 18 months, using routine data and postal questionnaires. We will assess technical performance by comparing predicted against actual emergency admissions. Focus groups and interviews will be undertaken to understand how Prism is perceived and adopted by practitioners and policy makers. We will model data using generalised linear models and survival analysis techniques to determine whether any differences exist between intervention and control groups. We will take account of covariates and explanatory factors. In the economic evaluation we will carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis to examine incremental cost per emergency admission to hospital avoided and will examine costs versus changes in primary and secondary outcomes in a cost-consequence analysis. We will also examine changes in quality of life of patients across the risk spectrum. We will record and transcribe focus groups and interviews and analyse them thematically. We have received full ethical and R&D approvals for the study and Information Governance Review Panel (IGRP) permission for the use of routine data. We will comply with the CONSORT guidelines and will disseminate the findings at national and international conferences and in peer-reviewed journals

Spirometry: predicting risk and outcome.

PubMed

Brunelli, Alessandro; Rocco, Gaetano

2008-02-01

Predicted postoperative FEV1 is certainly the most widely used parameter in preoperative risk stratification [54] and the measure recommend by BTS and ACCP functional guidelines as a first step in the screening of patients for lung resection surgery. Nevertheless, recent evidences have demonstrated that ppoFEV1 is not a reliable predictor of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications in patients with preoperative impaired pulmonary function. This may be because of the fact that the resection of a portion of lung in patients with obstructive disease determines only a minimal loss, or even an improvement, in overall respiratory function and exercise tolerance. This lung volume reduction effect takes place very early, since the first postoperative days, balancing what ever negative physiologic effects a thoracotomy and lung resection may entail. In addition to its poor predictive role in COPD patients, ppoFEV1 largely underestimate the actual loss in the very first days after operation, when most of the complications develop. The rationale to use a parameter which is poorly correlated with the pulmonary function at the moment the complications occur seems unwarranted. At the very best, ppoFEV1 appears a weak surrogate of the immediate postoperative FEV1. The FEV1 measured on the first postoperative day may be 30% less than predicted. Corrective equations have been published to correct this discrepancy with the aim to improve risk stratification.

Differences in short-term versus long-term outcomes of older black versus white patients with myocardial infarction: findings from the Can Rapid Risk Stratification of Unstable Angina Patients Suppress Adverse Outcomes with Early Implementation of American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Guidelines (CRUSADE).

PubMed

Mathews, Robin; Chen, Anita Y; Thomas, Laine; Wang, Tracy Y; Chin, Chee Tang; Thomas, Kevin L; Roe, Matthew T; Peterson, Eric D

2014-08-19

Blacks are less likely than whites to receive coronary revascularization and evidence-based therapies after acute myocardial infarction, yet the impact of these differences on long-term outcomes is unknown. We linked Can Rapid Risk Stratification of Unstable Angina Patients Suppress Adverse Outcomes With Early Implementation of American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Guidelines (CRUSADE) registry data to national Medicare claims, creating a longitudinal record of care and outcomes among 40 500 patients with non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction treated at 446 hospitals to examine mortality and readmission rates (mean follow-up, 2.4 years) among black and white patients. Relative to whites (n=37 384), blacks (n=3116) were more often younger and female; more often had diabetes mellitus and renal failure; and received less aggressive interventions, including cardiac catheterization (60.7% versus 54.0%; P<0.001), percutaneous coronary intervention (32.1% versus 23.8%; P<0.001), and coronary bypass surgery (9.2% versus 5.7%; P<0.001). Although blacks had lower 30-day mortality (9.1% versus 9.9%; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.92), they had higher observed mortality at 1 year (27.9% versus 24.5%; P<0.001), although this was not significant after adjustment on long-term follow-up (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.94-1.07). Black patients also had higher 30-day (23.6% versus 20.0%; P<0.001) and 1-year (62.0% versus 54.6%; P<0.001) all-cause readmission, but these differences were no longer significant after risk adjustment on 30-day (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.92-1.13) and long-term (hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.11) follow-up. Although older blacks with an acute myocardial infarction had lower initial mortality rates than whites, this early survival advantage did not persist during long-term follow-up. The reasons for this are multifactorial but may include

Genetic Risk Score Analysis in Early-Onset Bipolar Disorder

PubMed Central

Croarkin, Paul E.; Luby, Joan L.; Cercy, Kelly; Geske, Jennifer R.; Veldic, Marin; Simonson, Matthew; Joshi, Paramjit T.; Wagner, Karen Dineen; Walkup, John T.; Nassan, Malik M.; Cuellar-Barboza, Alfredo B.; Casuto, Leah; McElroy, Susan L.; Jensen, Peter S.; Frye, Mark A.; Biernacka, Joanna M.

2018-01-01

Objective In this study, we performed a candidate genetic risk score (GRS) analysis of early-onset bipolar disorder. Method Treatment of Early Age Mania (TEAM) study enrollment and sample collection took place from 2003–2008. Mayo Clinic Bipolar Biobank samples were collected from 2009–2013. Genotyping and analyses for the present study took place from 2013–2014. The diagnosis of bipolar disorder was based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Text Revision criteria. Eight single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), previously reported in genome-wide association studies to be associated with bipolar disorder, were chosen for GRS analysis in early-onset bipolar disease. These SNPs map to 3 genes: CACNA1C (calcium channel, voltage-dependent, L type, alpha 1C subunit), ANK3 (ankyrin-3, node of Ranvier [ankyrin G]), and ODZ4 (teneurin transmembrane protein 4 [formerly “odz, odd Oz/ten-m homolog 4 {Drosophila}, ODZ4”]). The 8 candidate SNPs were genotyped in patients from the TEAM study (n=69), adult patients with bipolar disorder (n=732) including a subset with early-onset illness [n=192]), and healthy controls (n=776). GRS analyses were performed comparing early-onset cases with controls. In addition, associations of early-onset BD with individual SNPs and haplotypes were explored. Results GRS analysis revealed associations of the risk score with early-onset bipolar disorder (P=.01). Gene-level haplotype analysis comparing TEAM patients with controls suggested association of early-onset bipolar disorder with a CACNA1C haplotype (global test, P=.01). At the level of individual SNPs, comparison of TEAM cases with healthy controls provided nominally significant evidence for association of SNP rs10848632 in CACNA1C with early-onset bipolar disorder (P=.017), which did not remain significant after correction for multiple comparisons. Conclusion These preliminary analyses suggest that previously identified bipolar disorder risk loci

Genetic Risk Score Analysis in Early-Onset Bipolar Disorder.

PubMed

Croarkin, Paul E; Luby, Joan L; Cercy, Kelly; Geske, Jennifer R; Veldic, Marin; Simonson, Matthew; Joshi, Paramjit T; Wagner, Karen Dineen; Walkup, John T; Nassan, Malik M; Cuellar-Barboza, Alfredo B; Casuto, Leah; McElroy, Susan L; Jensen, Peter S; Frye, Mark A; Biernacka, Joanna M

In this study, we performed a candidate genetic risk score (GRS) analysis of early-onset bipolar disorder (BD). Treatment of Early Age Mania (TEAM) study enrollment and sample collection took place from 2003 to 2008. Mayo Clinic Bipolar Biobank samples were collected from 2009 to 2013. Genotyping and analyses for the present study took place from 2013 to 2014. The diagnosis of BD was based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Text Revision criteria. Eight single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), previously reported in genome-wide association studies to be associated with BD, were chosen for GRS analysis in early-onset bipolar disease. These SNPs map to 3 genes: CACNA1C (calcium channel, voltage-dependent, L type, alpha 1C subunit), ANK3 (ankyrin-3, node of Ranvier [ankyrin G]), and ODZ4 (teneurin transmembrane protein 4 [formerly "odz, odd Oz/10-m homolog 4 {Drosophila}, ODZ4"]). The 8 candidate SNPs were genotyped in patients from the TEAM study (n = 69); adult patients with BD (n = 732), including a subset with early-onset illness (n = 192); and healthy controls (n = 776). GRS analyses were performed to compare early-onset cases with controls. In addition, associations of early-onset BD with individual SNPs and haplotypes were explored. GRS analysis revealed associations of the risk score with early-onset BD (P = .01). Gene-level haplotype analysis comparing TEAM patients with controls suggested association of early-onset BD with a CACNA1C haplotype (global test, P = .01). At the level of individual SNPs, comparison of TEAM cases with healthy controls provided nominally significant evidence for association of SNP rs10848632 in CACNA1C with early-onset BD (P = .017), which did not remain significant after correction for multiple comparisons. These preliminary analyses suggest that previously identified BD risk loci, especially CACNA1C, have a role in early-onset BD, possibly with stronger effects than for late-onset BD. �

Eddy-driven stratification initiates North Atlantic spring phytoplankton blooms.

PubMed

Mahadevan, Amala; D'Asaro, Eric; Lee, Craig; Perry, Mary Jane

2012-07-06

Springtime phytoplankton blooms photosynthetically fix carbon and export it from the surface ocean at globally important rates. These blooms are triggered by increased light exposure of the phytoplankton due to both seasonal light increase and the development of a near-surface vertical density gradient (stratification) that inhibits vertical mixing of the phytoplankton. Classically and in current climate models, that stratification is ascribed to a springtime warming of the sea surface. Here, using observations from the subpolar North Atlantic and a three-dimensional biophysical model, we show that the initial stratification and resulting bloom are instead caused by eddy-driven slumping of the basin-scale north-south density gradient, resulting in a patchy bloom beginning 20 to 30 days earlier than would occur by warming.

Analytical and assay issues for use of cardiac troponin testing for risk stratification in primary care.

PubMed

Wu, Alan H B; Christenson, Robert H

2013-08-01

Cardiac troponin is the standard marker for diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction and risk stratification of patients who present to an emergency department with signs and symptoms of acute cardiac ischemia. Over the past few years, the analytical sensitivity of assays for cardiac troponin has improved significantly to the point where a detectable amount of troponin can be measured in essentially all healthy subjects. Recent studies have shown that use of a highly sensitive troponin assays may provide value to traditional markers of primary disease risk for patients, i.e., for those who have no history of heart disease. There are barriers to the adoption of cardiac troponin for screening high risk cohorts such as the elderly, diabetics and perhaps even the asymptomatic population. Strategies used for the assignment of cutoff concentrations in acute care, i.e., the 99 th percentile, may not be appropriate for primary care as changes over baseline levels may provide more accurate information of risk than cross-sectional results. A review of biological variation has shown that cardiac troponin as a biomarker has low index of individuality, indicating that reference values are of little utility. Whether or not cardiac troponin can be released in reversible injury is a debate that could have significance for detecting minor myocardial injury. A major hurdle for use of troponin in primary care is the lack of assay standardization and nomenclature for the different generations of troponin assays. Standardization requires knowledge of what is released after cardiac injury and what the various cardiac troponin assays are measuring. Currently it is not clear if the cardiac troponin release after ischemic injury is identical to that in circulation of healthy individuals. This may affect the design of future assays and standardization approaches. There is potential that a marker of myocardial injury such as troponin can add to the value of existing indicators and biomarkers

[Operative treatment strategies for multiple trauma patients : early total care versus damage control].

PubMed

Klüter, T; Lippross, S; Oestern, S; Weuster, M; Seekamp, A

2013-09-01

The treatment of multiple trauma patients is a great challenge for an interdisciplinary team. After preclinical care and subsequent treatment in the emergency room the order of the interventions is prioritized depending of the individual risk stratification. For planning the surgery management it is essential to distinguish between absolutely essential operations to prevent life-threatening situations for the patient and interventions with shiftable indications, depending on the general condition of the patient. All interventions need to be done without causing significant secondary damage to prohibit hyperinflammation and systemic inflammatory response syndrome. The challenge consists in determination of the appropriate treatment at the right point in time. In general the early primary intervention, early total care, is differentiated from the damage control concept.

Breakup of last glacial deep stratification in the South Pacific.

PubMed

Basak, Chandranath; Fröllje, Henning; Lamy, Frank; Gersonde, Rainer; Benz, Verena; Anderson, Robert F; Molina-Kescher, Mario; Pahnke, Katharina

2018-02-23

Stratification of the deep Southern Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum is thought to have facilitated carbon storage and subsequent release during the deglaciation as stratification broke down, contributing to atmospheric CO 2 rise. Here, we present neodymium isotope evidence from deep to abyssal waters in the South Pacific that confirms stratification of the deepwater column during the Last Glacial Maximum. The results indicate a glacial northward expansion of Ross Sea Bottom Water and a Southern Hemisphere climate trigger for the deglacial breakup of deep stratification. It highlights the important role of abyssal waters in sustaining a deep glacial carbon reservoir and Southern Hemisphere climate change as a prerequisite for the destabilization of the water column and hence the deglacial release of sequestered CO 2 through upwelling. Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Breast cancer risk accumulation starts early – Prevention must also

PubMed Central

Colditz, Graham A; Bohlke, Kari; Berkey, Catherine S.

2014-01-01

Purpose Nearly 1 in 4 breast cancers is diagnosed before the age of 50, and many early-stage premalignant lesions are present but not yet diagnosed. Therefore, we review evidence to support the strategy that breast cancer prevention efforts must begin early in life. Methods Literature review Results Exposures during childhood and adolescence affect a woman’s long-term risk of breast cancer, but have received far less research attention than exposures that occur later in life. Breast tissue undergoes rapid cellular proliferation between menarche and first full-term pregnancy, and risk accumulates rapidly until the terminal differentiation that accompanies first pregnancy. Evidence on childhood diet and growth in height, and adolescent alcohol intake, among other adolescent factors are related to breast cancer risk and risk of premalignant proliferative benign lesions. Conclusion Breast cancer prevention efforts will have the greatest effect when initiated at an early age and continued over a lifetime. Gaps in knowledge are identified and deserve increase attention to inform prevention. PMID:24820413

The impact of youth, family, peer and neighborhood risk factors on developmental trajectories of risk involvement from early through middle adolescence.

PubMed

Wang, Bo; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Marshall, Sharon; Chen, Xinguang; Stanton, Bonita

2014-04-01

Few studies have analyzed the development course beginning in pre-/early adolescence of overall engagement in health-risk behaviors and associated social risk factors that place individuals in different health-risk trajectories through mid-adolescence. The current longitudinal study identified 1276 adolescents in grade six and followed them for three years to investigate their developmental trajectories of risk behaviors and to examine the association of personal and social risk factors with each trajectory. Group-based trajectory modeling was applied to identify distinctive trajectory patterns of risk behaviors. Multivariate multinomial logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the effects of the personal and social risk factors on adolescents' trajectories. Three gender-specific behavioral trajectories were identified for males (55.3% low-risk, 37.6% moderate-risk, increasing, and 7.1% high-risk, increasing) and females (41.4% no-risk, 53.4% low-risk, increasing and 5.2% moderate to high-risk, increasing). Sensation-seeking, family, peer, and neighborhood factors at baseline predicted following the moderate-risk, increasing trajectory and the high-risk, increasing trajectory in males; these risk factors predicted following the moderate to high-risk, increasing trajectory in females. The presence of all three social risk factors (high-risk neighborhood, high-risk peers and low parental monitoring) had a dramatic impact on increased probability of being in a high-risk trajectory group. These findings highlight the developmental significance of early personal and social risk factors on subsequent risk behaviors in early to middle adolescence. Future adolescent health behavior promotion interventions might consider offering additional prevention resources to pre- and early adolescent youth who are exposed to multiple contextual risk factors (even in the absence of risk behaviors) or youth who are early-starters of delinquency and substance use behaviors

Drain Management after Pancreatoduodenectomy: Reappraisal of a Prospective Randomized Trial Using Risk Stratification.

PubMed

McMillan, Matthew T; Malleo, Giuseppe; Bassi, Claudio; Butturini, Giovanni; Salvia, Roberto; Roses, Robert E; Lee, Major K; Fraker, Douglas L; Drebin, Jeffrey A; Vollmer, Charles M

2015-10-01

A recent randomized trial used the Fistula Risk Score (FRS) to develop guidelines for selective drainage based on clinically relevant fistula (CR-POPF) risk. Additionally, postoperative day (POD) 1 drain and serum amylase have been identified as accurate postoperative predictors of CR-POPF. This study sought to identify patients who may benefit from selective drainage, as well as the optimal timing for drain removal after pancreatoduodenectomy. One hundred six pancreatoduodenectomies from a previously reported RCT were assessed using risk-adjustment. The incidence of CR-POPF was compared between FRS risk cohorts. Drain and serum amylase values from POD 1 were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to establish cut-offs predictive of CR-POPF occurrence. A regression analysis compared drain removal randomizations (POD 3 vs POD 5). Three-quarters of patients had moderate/high CR-POPF risk. This group had a CR-POPF rate of 36.3% vs 7.7% among negligible/low risk patients (p = 0.005). The areas under the ROC curve for CR-POPF prediction using POD 1 drain and serum amylase values were 0.800 (p = 0.000001; 95% CI 0.70-0.90) and 0.655 (p = 0.012; 95% CI 0.55-0.77), respectively. No significant serum amylase cut-offs were identified. Moderate/high risk patients with POD 1 drain amylase ≤ 5,000 U/L had significantly lower rates of CR-POPF when randomized to POD 3 drain removal (4.2% vs 38.5%; p = 0.003); moreover, these patients experienced fewer complications and shorter hospital stays. A clinical care protocol is proposed whereby drains are recommended for moderate/high FRS risk patients, but may be omitted in patients with negligible/low risk. Drain amylase values in moderate/high risk patients should then be evaluated on POD 1 to determine the optimal timing for drain removal. Moderate/high risk patients with POD 1 drain amylase ≤ 5,000 U/L have lower rates of CR-POPF with POD 3 (vs POD ≥ 5) drain removal; early drain removal is

Collaborative Review: Risk-Based Prostate Cancer Screening

PubMed Central

Zhu, Xiaoye; Albertsen, Peter C.; Andriole, Gerald L.; Roobol, Monique J.; Schröder, Fritz H.; Vickers, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

Context Widespread mass screening of prostate cancer (PCa) is not recommended because the balance between benefits and harms is still not well established. The achieved mortality reduction comes with considerable harm such as unnecessary biopsies, overdiagnoses, and overtreatment. Therefore, patient stratification with regard to PCa risk and aggressiveness is necessary to identify those men who are at risk and may actually benefit from early detection. Objective This review critically examines the current evidence regarding risk-based PCa screening. Evidence acquisition A search of the literature was performed using the Medline database. Further studies were selected based on manual searches of reference lists and review articles. Evidence synthesis Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) has been shown to be the single most significant predictive factor for identifying men at increased risk of developing PCa. Especially in men with no additional risk factors, PSA alone provides an appropriate marker up to 30 yr into the future. After assessment of an early PSA test, the screening frequency may be determined based on individualized risk. A limited list of additional factors such as age, comorbidity, prostate volume, family history, ethnicity, and previous biopsy status have been identified to modify risk and are important for consideration in routine practice. In men with a known PSA, risk calculators may hold the promise of identifying those who are at increased risk of having PCa and are therefore candidates for biopsy. Conclusions PSA testing may serve as the foundation for a more risk-based assessment. However, the decision to undergo early PSA testing should be a shared one between the patient and his physician based on information balancing its advantages and disadvantages. PMID:22134009

Maternal Obesity: Risks for Developmental Delays in Early Childhood.

PubMed

Duffany, Kathleen O'Connor; McVeigh, Katharine H; Kershaw, Trace S; Lipkind, Heather S; Ickovics, Jeannette R

2016-02-01

To assess the risk for neurodevelopmental delays for children of mothers who were obese (≥200 pounds) prior to pregnancy, and to characterize delays associated with maternal obesity among children referred to and found eligible to receive Early Intervention Program services. We conducted a retrospective cohort study (N = 541,816) using a population-based New York City data warehouse with linked birth and Early Intervention data. Risks for children suspected of a delay and 'significantly delayed', with two moderate or one severe delay, were calculated. Among the group of children eligible by delay for Early Intervention, analyses assessed risk for being identified with a moderate-to-severe delay across each of five functional domains as well as risks for multiple delays. Children of mothers who were obese were more likely to be suspected of a delay (adjusted RR 1.19 [CI 1.15-1.22]) and borderline association for 'significantly delayed' (adjusted RR 1.01 [CI 1.00-1.02). Among children eligible by delay, children of mothers who were obese evidenced an increased risk for moderate-to-severe cognitive (adjusted RR 1.04 [CI 1.02-1.07]) and physical (adjusted RR 1.04 [CI 1.01-1.08]) delays and for global developmental delay (adjusted RR 1.05 [CI 1.01-1.08]). Maternal obesity is associated with increased risk of developmental delay in offspring. Among children with moderate or severe delays, maternal obesity is associated with increased risk of cognitive and physical delays as well as with increased risk for global developmental delay. While causation remains uncertain, this adds to the growing body of research reporting an association between maternal obesity and neurodevelopmental delays in offspring.

The Effect of Barotropic and Baroclinic Tides on Coastal Stratification and Mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suanda, S. H.; Feddersen, F.; Kumar, N.

2017-12-01

The effects of barotropic and baroclinic tides on subtidal stratification and vertical mixing are examined with high-resolution, three-dimensional numerical simulations of the Central Californian coastal upwelling region. A base simulation with realistic atmospheric and regional-scale boundary forcing but no tides (NT) is compared to two simulations with the addition of predominantly barotropic local tides (LT) and with combined barotropic and remotely generated, baroclinic tides (WT) with ≈ 100 W m-1 onshore baroclinic energy flux. During a 10 day period of coastal upwelling when the domain volume-averaged temperature is similar in all three simulations, LT has little difference in subtidal temperature and stratification compared to NT. In contrast, the addition of remote baroclinic tides (WT) reduces the subtidal continental shelf stratification up to 50% relative to NT. Idealized simulations to isolate barotropic and baroclinic effects demonstrate that within a parameter space of typical U.S. West Coast continental shelf slopes, barotropic tidal currents, incident energy flux, and subtidal stratification, the dissipating baroclinic tide destroys stratification an order of magnitude faster than barotropic tides. In WT, the modeled vertical temperature diffusivity at the top (base) of the bottom (surface) boundary layer is increased up to 20 times relative to NT. Therefore, the width of the inner-shelf (region of surface and bottom boundary layer overlap) is increased approximately 4 times relative to NT. The change in stratification due to dissipating baroclinic tides is comparable to the magnitude of the observed seasonal cycle of stratification.

Revealing the timing of ocean stratification using remotely-sensed ocean fronts: links with marine predators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, P. I.; Loveday, B. R.

2016-02-01

Stratification is of critical importance to the mixing and productivity of the ocean, though currently it can only be measured using in situ sampling, profiling buoys or underwater autonomous vehicles. Stratification is understood to affect the surface aggregation of pelagic fish and hence the foraging behaviour and distribution of their predators such as seabirds and cetaceans. Satellite Earth observation sensors cannot directly detect stratification, but can observe surface features related to the presence of stratification, for example shelf-sea fronts that separate tidally-mixed water from seasonally stratified water. This presentation describes a novel algorithm that accumulates evidence for stratification from a sequence of oceanic front maps, and in certain regions can reveal the timing of the seasonal onset and breakdown of stratification. Initial comparisons will be made with seabird locations acquired through GPS tagging. If successful, a remotely-sensed stratification timing index would augment the ocean front metrics already developed at PML, that have been applied in over 20 journal articles relating marine predators to ocean fronts. The figure below shows a preliminary remotely-sensed 'stratification' index, for 25-31 Jul. 2010, where red indicates water with stronger evidence for stratification.

Stratification of Recanalization for Patients with Endovascular Treatment of Intracranial Aneurysms

PubMed Central

Ogilvy, Christopher S.; Chua, Michelle H.; Fusco, Matthew R.; Reddy, Arra S.; Thomas, Ajith J.

2015-01-01

Background With increasing utilization of endovascular techniques in the treatment of both ruptured and unruptured intracranial aneurysms, the issue of obliteration efficacy has become increasingly important. Objective Our goal was to systematically develop a comprehensive model for predicting retreatment with various types of endovascular treatment. Methods We retrospectively reviewed medical records that were prospectively collected for 305 patients who received endovascular treatment for intracranial aneurysms from 2007 to 2013. Multivariable logistic regression was performed on candidate predictors identified by univariable screening analysis to detect independent predictors of retreatment. A composite risk score was constructed based on the proportional contribution of independent predictors in the multivariable model. Results Size (>10 mm), aneurysm rupture, stent assistance, and post-treatment degree of aneurysm occlusion were independently associated with retreatment while intraluminal thrombosis and flow diversion demonstrated a trend towards retreatment. The Aneurysm Recanalization Stratification Scale was constructed by assigning the following weights to statistically and clinically significant predictors. Aneurysm-specific factors: Size (>10 mm), 2 points; rupture, 2 points; presence of thrombus, 2 points. Treatment-related factors: Stent assistance, -1 point; flow diversion, -2 points; Raymond Roy 2 occlusion, 1 point; Raymond Roy 3 occlusion, 2 points. This scale demonstrated good discrimination with a C-statistic of 0.799. Conclusion Surgical decision-making and patient-centered informed consent require comprehensive and accessible information on treatment efficacy. We have constructed the Aneurysm Recanalization Stratification Scale to enhance this decision-making process. This is the first comprehensive model that has been developed to quantitatively predict the risk of retreatment following endovascular therapy. PMID:25621984

Areal Control Using Generalized Least Squares As An Alternative to Stratification

Treesearch

Raymond L. Czaplewski

2001-01-01

Stratification for both variance reduction and areal control proliferates the number of strata, which causes small sample sizes in many strata. This might compromise statistical efficiency. Generalized least squares can, in principle, replace stratification for areal control.

Development and applications of the Veterans Health Administration's Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM) to improve opioid safety and prevent overdose and suicide.

PubMed

Oliva, Elizabeth M; Bowe, Thomas; Tavakoli, Sara; Martins, Susana; Lewis, Eleanor T; Paik, Meenah; Wiechers, Ilse; Henderson, Patricia; Harvey, Michael; Avoundjian, Tigran; Medhanie, Amanuel; Trafton, Jodie A

2017-02-01

Concerns about opioid-related adverse events, including overdose, prompted the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) to launch an Opioid Safety Initiative and Overdose Education and Naloxone Distribution program. To mitigate risks associated with opioid prescribing, a holistic approach that takes into consideration both risk factors (e.g., dose, substance use disorders) and risk mitigation interventions (e.g., urine drug screening, psychosocial treatment) is needed. This article describes the Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM), a tool developed in VHA that reflects this holistic approach and facilitates patient identification and monitoring. STORM prioritizes patients for review and intervention according to their modeled risk for overdose/suicide-related events and displays risk factors and risk mitigation interventions obtained from VHA electronic medical record (EMR)-data extracts. Patients' estimated risk is based on a predictive risk model developed using fiscal year 2010 (FY2010: 10/1/2009-9/30/2010) EMR-data extracts and mortality data among 1,135,601 VHA patients prescribed opioid analgesics to predict risk for an overdose/suicide-related event in FY2011 (2.1% experienced an event). Cross-validation was used to validate the model, with receiver operating characteristic curves for the training and test data sets performing well (>.80 area under the curve). The predictive risk model distinguished patients based on risk for overdose/suicide-related adverse events, allowing for identification of high-risk patients and enrichment of target populations of patients with greater safety concerns for proactive monitoring and application of risk mitigation interventions. Results suggest that clinical informatics can leverage EMR-extracted data to identify patients at-risk for overdose/suicide-related events and provide clinicians with actionable information to mitigate risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Relations between Early Family Risk, Children's Behavioral Regulation, and Academic Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sektnan, Michaella; McClelland, Megan M.; Acock, Alan; Morrison, Frederick J.

2010-01-01

This study examined relations among early family risk, children's behavioral regulation at 54 months and kindergarten, and academic achievement in first grade using data on 1298 children from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development. Family risk was indexed by ethnic…

Molecular reclassification of Crohn's disease: a cautionary note on population stratification.

PubMed

Maus, Bärbel; Jung, Camille; Mahachie John, Jestinah M; Hugot, Jean-Pierre; Génin, Emmanuelle; Van Steen, Kristel

2013-01-01

Complex human diseases commonly differ in their phenotypic characteristics, e.g., Crohn's disease (CD) patients are heterogeneous with regard to disease location and disease extent. The genetic susceptibility to Crohn's disease is widely acknowledged and has been demonstrated by identification of over 100 CD associated genetic loci. However, relating CD subphenotypes to disease susceptible loci has proven to be a difficult task. In this paper we discuss the use of cluster analysis on genetic markers to identify genetic-based subgroups while taking into account possible confounding by population stratification. We show that it is highly relevant to consider the confounding nature of population stratification in order to avoid that detected clusters are strongly related to population groups instead of disease-specific groups. Therefore, we explain the use of principal components to correct for population stratification while clustering affected individuals into genetic-based subgroups. The principal components are obtained using 30 ancestry informative markers (AIM), and the first two PCs are determined to discriminate between continental origins of the affected individuals. Genotypes on 51 CD associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are used to perform latent class analysis, hierarchical and Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) cluster analysis within a sample of affected individuals with and without the use of principal components to adjust for population stratification. It is seen that without correction for population stratification clusters seem to be influenced by population stratification while with correction clusters are unrelated to continental origin of individuals.

Buried layers: On the origins, rise, and fall of stratification theories.

PubMed

Wieser, Martin

2018-02-01

This article presents a historical analysis of the origins, rise, and demise of theories of stratification ( Schichtentheorien ). Following their roots in the ancient metaphysical idea of the "great chain of being," Aristotle's scala naturae , the medieval "Jacob's ladder," and Leibniz's concept of the lex continua, I argue that theories of stratification represent the modern heir to the ancient cosmological idea of a harmonious, hierarchical, and unified universe. Theories of stratification reached their heyday during the interwar period within German academia, proliferating over a vast number of disciplines and rising to special prominence within personality psychology, feeding the hope for a unitary image of the world and of human beings, their biological and mental development, their social organization and cultural creations. This article focuses on the role of visuality as a distinct mode of scientific knowledge within theories of stratification as well as the cultural context that provided the fertile ground for their flowering in the Weimar Republic. Finally, the rapid demise of theories of stratification during the 1950s is discussed, and some reasons for their downfall during the second half of the 20th century are explored. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Early Childhood Risk and Protective Factors for Substance Use during Early Adolescence: Gender Differences.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friedman, Alfred S.; And Others

1995-01-01

Gathered substance use histories from African American male (n=318) and female (n=322) adolescents to determine whether gender differences affected early life risk factors for drug use or abuse. Family variables and subject behavior predicted degree of substance use and frequency of intoxication, but no risk factor applied to both genders. (SNR)

Hearing loss and risk of early retirement. The HUNT study.

PubMed

Helvik, Anne-Sofie; Krokstad, Steinar; Tambs, Kristian

2013-08-01

We explore the possible consequences of measured hearing impairment (HI) and perceived hearing difficulties for early retirement in a large population-based study. Furthermore, we study whether having a part-time position was associated with measured HI and perceived hearing difficulties in the same population. This study included 25,740 persons from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) aged 20-54 years at baseline in HUNT1 (1984-1986) who also participated in the follow up, HUNT2, including a hearing examination 11 years later. Logistic regression analysis was conducted for men and women separately and in two age strata. Effects of low-, middle- and high-frequency hearing levels were explored, adjusting for each other. Further adjustment was made for socio-economic class and general health in HUNT1. The risk of early retirement increased with degree of loss of low-frequency hearing in young and middle-aged men and middle-aged women. The middle-aged men and women experiencing hearing disability had an increased risk of early retirement. Degree of hearing level was not associated with part-time work, but in middle-aged men, awareness of having a hearing loss was associated with part-time employment. Degree of low-frequency hearing loss was associated with early retirement but not with part-time work. Perceived hearing disability increased the risk of early retirement in middle-aged men and women and also the risk of part-time work in middle-aged men.

Social stratification, classroom climate, and the behavioral adaptation of kindergarten children

PubMed Central

Boyce, W. Thomas; Obradović, Jelena; Bush, Nicole R.; Stamperdahl, Juliet; Kim, Young Shin; Adler, Nancy

2012-01-01

Socioeconomic status (SES) is the single most potent determinant of health within human populations, from infancy through old age. Although the social stratification of health is nearly universal, there is persistent uncertainty regarding the dimensions of SES that effect such inequalities and thus little clarity about the principles of intervention by which inequalities might be abated. Guided by animal models of hierarchical organization and the health correlates of subordination, this prospective study examined the partitioning of children's adaptive behavioral development by their positions within kindergarten classroom hierarchies. A sample of 338 5-y-old children was recruited from 29 Berkeley, California public school classrooms. A naturalistic observational measure of social position, parent-reported family SES, and child-reported classroom climate were used in estimating multilevel, random-effects models of children's adaptive behavior at the end of the kindergarten year. Children occupying subordinate positions had significantly more maladaptive behavioral outcomes than their dominant peers. Further, interaction terms revealed that low family SES and female sex magnified, and teachers’ child-centered pedagogical practices diminished, the adverse influences of social subordination. Taken together, results suggest that, even within early childhood groups, social stratification is associated with a partitioning of adaptive behavioral outcomes and that the character of larger societal and school structures in which such groups are nested can moderate rank–behavior associations. PMID:23045637

Social stratification, classroom climate, and the behavioral adaptation of kindergarten children.

PubMed

Boyce, W Thomas; Obradovic, Jelena; Bush, Nicole R; Stamperdahl, Juliet; Kim, Young Shin; Adler, Nancy

2012-10-16

Socioeconomic status (SES) is the single most potent determinant of health within human populations, from infancy through old age. Although the social stratification of health is nearly universal, there is persistent uncertainty regarding the dimensions of SES that effect such inequalities and thus little clarity about the principles of intervention by which inequalities might be abated. Guided by animal models of hierarchical organization and the health correlates of subordination, this prospective study examined the partitioning of children's adaptive behavioral development by their positions within kindergarten classroom hierarchies. A sample of 338 5-y-old children was recruited from 29 Berkeley, California public school classrooms. A naturalistic observational measure of social position, parent-reported family SES, and child-reported classroom climate were used in estimating multilevel, random-effects models of children's adaptive behavior at the end of the kindergarten year. Children occupying subordinate positions had significantly more maladaptive behavioral outcomes than their dominant peers. Further, interaction terms revealed that low family SES and female sex magnified, and teachers' child-centered pedagogical practices diminished, the adverse influences of social subordination. Taken together, results suggest that, even within early childhood groups, social stratification is associated with a partitioning of adaptive behavioral outcomes and that the character of larger societal and school structures in which such groups are nested can moderate rank-behavior associations.

Clinical and Other Risk Indicators for Early Periodontitis in Adults

PubMed Central

Tanner, Anne C.R.; Kent, Ralph; Van Dyke, Thomas; Sonis, Steven T.; Murray, Lora A.

2005-01-01

Background Periodontal diseases affect over half the adults in the U.S., disproportionately affecting minority populations. Periodontitis can be treated in early stages, but it is not clear what features indicate, or could be risk factors for, early stages of periodontal attachment loss. This study aimed to evaluate associations between clinical and other risk indicators of early periodontitis. Methods A cross-sectional evaluation of 225 healthy and early periodontitis adults aged 20 to 40 years was performed. Clinical measurements, demographic information, and smoking histories were recorded. Analyses evaluated demographic and clinical associations with health and early periodontitis disease categories and periodontal attachment loss. Patterns of attachment loss at interproximal and buccal/lingual sites were evaluated. Results Subject age, plaque, and measures of gingivitis exhibited associations with attachment loss and probing depth. More periodontal attachment loss was detected in African-American and Hispanic subjects compared to Asian and Caucasian subjects. Smoking history was associated with attachment loss. At interproximal sites, lower molars most frequently had attachment loss, whereas at buccal/lingual sites, higher proportions of lower bicuspid teeth demonstrated attachment loss compared with other sites. Conclusions In this study of subjects with minimal attachment loss, gingival inflammation was associated with early periodontitis. Lower molar interproximal sites were frequently associated with interproximal attachment loss, whereas lower bicuspid teeth were at risk for gingival recession on buccal surfaces. PMID:15857098

Value of the Definition of Severe Familial Hypercholesterolemia for Stratification of Heterozygous Patients.

PubMed

Pérez-Calahorra, Sofia; Sánchez-Hernández, Rosa María; Plana, Núria; Marco-Benedi, Victoria; Pedro-Botet, Juan; Almagro, Fátima; Brea, Angel; Ascaso, Juan Francisco; Lahoz, Carlos; Civeira, Fernando

2017-03-01

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is characterized by high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol with co-dominant transmission and high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), although with high variability among subjects. Currently, CVD stratification tools for heterozygous FH (HeFH) are not available. A definition of severe HeFH has been recently proposed by the International Atherosclerosis Society (IAS), but it has not been validated. Our study aims to see clinical characteristics and prevalence of CVD in subjects defined as severe HeFH by IAS criteria. Probable or definite HeFH introduced in the Dyslipidemia Registry of Spanish Arteriosclerosis Society were analyzed by the IAS criteria. Univariate and multivariate analysis was used to assess the association of CVD with the IAS criteria. About 1,732 HeFH cases were analyzed. Severe HeFH had higher prevalence of familial history of CVD, personal history of tendon xanthomas, LDL cholesterol, and CVD than nonsevere HeFH. A total of 656 (77.1%) and 441 (50.1%) of men and women, respectively, fulfilled the IAS criteria of severe HeFH. In the univariate analysis, subjects defined as severe HeFH showed odds ratio 3.016 (95% CI 3.136 to 4.257, p <0.001) for CVD. However, when traditional risk factors were included in the multivariate analysis, only the presence of cholesterol >400 mg/dl had a statistically significant association with CVD odds ratio 8.76 (95% CI 3.90 to 19.69, p <0.001). In conclusion, the IAS definition of severe HeFH is not significantly associated with CVD when adjusted for classic risk factors. Risk stratification in HeFH is an important issue, but the proposed criteria do not seem to solve this problem. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Ecological Risk Model for Early Childhood Anxiety: The Importance of Early Child Symptoms and Temperament

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mian, Nicholas D.; Wainwright, Laurel; Briggs-Gowan, Margaret J.; Carter, Alice S.

2011-01-01

Childhood anxiety is impairing and associated with later emotional disorders. Studying risk factors for child anxiety may allow earlier identification of at-risk children for prevention efforts. This study applied an ecological risk model to address how early childhood anxiety symptoms, child temperament, maternal anxiety and depression symptoms,…

Comments: Should Principal Stratification Be Used to Study Mediational Processes?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

VanderWeele, Tyler J.

2012-01-01

Principal stratification provides an approach to study the effect of an exposure on an outcome within strata defined by the effect of the exposure on some third, posttreatment, variable (Frangakis & Rubin, 2002). There has been more recent interest in using principal stratification to study the extent to which the effect of an exposure on an…

Combining risk markers improves cardiovascular risk prediction in women.

PubMed

Holewijn, Suzanne; den Heijer, Martin; Kiemeney, Lambertus A; Stalenhoef, Anton F H; de Graaf, Jacqueline

2014-01-01

Cardiovascular risk stratification could be improved by adding measures of atherosclerosis to current risk scores, especially in intermediate-risk individuals. We prospectively evaluated the additive value of different non-invasive risk markers (both individual and combined) for gender-specific cardiovascular risk stratification on top of traditional risk factors in a middle-aged population-based cohort. Carotid-plaques, IMT (intima-media thickness), ABI (ankle-brachial index), PWV (pulse-wave velocity), AIx (augmentation index), CAP (central augmented pressure) and CSP (central-systolic pressure) were measured in 1367 CVD (cardiovascular disease)-free participants aged 50-70 years old. Cardiovascular events were validated after a mean follow-up of 3.8 years. AUC (area-under-the-curve) and NRI (net reclassification improvement) analyses (total-NRI for all and clinical-NRI for intermediate-risk groups) were used to determine the additive value of individual and combined risk markers. Cardiovascular events occurred in 32 women and 39 men. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors explained 6.2% and 12.5% of the variance in CVD in women and men respectively. AUCs did not substantially increase by adding individual or combined non-invasive risk markers. Individual risk markers only improved reclassification in intermediate-risk women and more than in men; clinical-NRIs ranged between 48.0 and 173.1% in women and 8.9 and 20% in men. Combined non-invasive-risk markers improved reclassification in all women and even more in those at intermediate risk; 'IMT-presence-thickness-of-plaques' showed largest reclassification [total-NRI=33.8%, P=0.012; IDI (integrated-discrimination-improvement)=0.048, P=0.066; clinical-NRI=168.0%]. In men, combined non-invasive risk markers improved reclassification only in those at intermediate risk; 'PWV-AIx-CSP-CAP-IMT' showed the largest reclassification (total-NRI=14.5%, P=0.087; IDI=0.016, P=0.148; clinical-NRI=46.0%). In all women

Change and Stability in Educational Stratification.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mare, Robert D.

1981-01-01

Using statistical models, discusses educational stratification with respect to socioeconomic origins. Describes the effects of social background on grade progression change across cohorts born during the 20th century and the consequences of these changes. (JW)

Orderedness and Stratificational "and" Nodes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herrick, Earl M.

It is possible to apply Lamb's stratificational theory and analysis to English graphonomy, but additional notation devices must be used to explain particular graphemes and their characteristics. The author presents cases where Lamb's notation is inadequate. In those cases, he devises new means for performing the analysis. The result of this…

Understanding PSA and its derivatives in prediction of tumor volume: addressing health disparities in prostate cancer risk stratification

PubMed Central

Chinea, Felix M; Lyapichev, Kirill; Epstein, Jonathan I; Kwon, Deukwoo; Smith, Paul Taylor; Pollack, Alan; Cote, Richard J; Kryvenko, Oleksandr N

2017-01-01

Objectives To address health disparities in risk stratification of U.S. Hispanic/Latino men by characterizing influences of prostate weight, body mass index, and race/ethnicity on the correlation of PSA derivatives with Gleason score 6 (Grade Group 1) tumor volume in a diverse cohort. Results Using published PSA density and PSA mass density cutoff values, men with higher body mass indices and prostate weights were less likely to have a tumor volume <0.5 cm3. Variability across race/ethnicity was found in the univariable analysis for all PSA derivatives when predicting for tumor volume. In receiver operator characteristic analysis, area under the curve values for all PSA derivatives varied across race/ethnicity with lower optimal cutoff values for Hispanic/Latino (PSA=2.79, PSA density=0.06, PSA mass=0.37, PSA mass density=0.011) and Non-Hispanic Black (PSA=3.75, PSA density=0.07, PSA mass=0.46, PSA mass density=0.008) compared to Non-Hispanic White men (PSA=4.20, PSA density=0.11 PSA mass=0.53, PSA mass density=0.014). Materials and Methods We retrospectively analyzed 589 patients with low-risk prostate cancer at radical prostatectomy. Pre-operative PSA, patient height, body weight, and prostate weight were used to calculate all PSA derivatives. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for each PSA derivative per racial/ethnic group to establish optimal cutoff values predicting for tumor volume ≥0.5 cm3. Conclusions Increasing prostate weight and body mass index negatively influence PSA derivatives for predicting tumor volume. PSA derivatives’ ability to predict tumor volume varies significantly across race/ethnicity. Hispanic/Latino and Non-Hispanic Black men have lower optimal cutoff values for all PSA derivatives, which may impact risk assessment for prostate cancer. PMID:28160549

Understanding PSA and its derivatives in prediction of tumor volume: Addressing health disparities in prostate cancer risk stratification.

PubMed

Chinea, Felix M; Lyapichev, Kirill; Epstein, Jonathan I; Kwon, Deukwoo; Smith, Paul Taylor; Pollack, Alan; Cote, Richard J; Kryvenko, Oleksandr N

2017-03-28

To address health disparities in risk stratification of U.S. Hispanic/Latino men by characterizing influences of prostate weight, body mass index, and race/ethnicity on the correlation of PSA derivatives with Gleason score 6 (Grade Group 1) tumor volume in a diverse cohort. Using published PSA density and PSA mass density cutoff values, men with higher body mass indices and prostate weights were less likely to have a tumor volume <0.5 cm3. Variability across race/ethnicity was found in the univariable analysis for all PSA derivatives when predicting for tumor volume. In receiver operator characteristic analysis, area under the curve values for all PSA derivatives varied across race/ethnicity with lower optimal cutoff values for Hispanic/Latino (PSA=2.79, PSA density=0.06, PSA mass=0.37, PSA mass density=0.011) and Non-Hispanic Black (PSA=3.75, PSA density=0.07, PSA mass=0.46, PSA mass density=0.008) compared to Non-Hispanic White men (PSA=4.20, PSA density=0.11 PSA mass=0.53, PSA mass density=0.014). We retrospectively analyzed 589 patients with low-risk prostate cancer at radical prostatectomy. Pre-operative PSA, patient height, body weight, and prostate weight were used to calculate all PSA derivatives. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for each PSA derivative per racial/ethnic group to establish optimal cutoff values predicting for tumor volume ≥0.5 cm3. Increasing prostate weight and body mass index negatively influence PSA derivatives for predicting tumor volume. PSA derivatives' ability to predict tumor volume varies significantly across race/ethnicity. Hispanic/Latino and Non-Hispanic Black men have lower optimal cutoff values for all PSA derivatives, which may impact risk assessment for prostate cancer.

Early somatosensory processing in individuals at risk for developing psychoses.

PubMed

Hagenmuller, Florence; Heekeren, Karsten; Theodoridou, Anastasia; Walitza, Susanne; Haker, Helene; Rössler, Wulf; Kawohl, Wolfram

2014-01-01

Human cortical somatosensory evoked potentials (SEPs) allow an accurate investigation of thalamocortical and early cortical processing. SEPs reveal a burst of superimposed early (N20) high-frequency oscillations around 600 Hz. Previous studies reported alterations of SEPs in patients with schizophrenia. This study addresses the question whether those alterations are also observable in populations at risk for developing schizophrenia or bipolar disorders. To our knowledge to date, this is the first study investigating SEPs in a population at risk for developing psychoses. Median nerve SEPs were investigated using multichannel EEG in individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorders (n = 25), individuals with high-risk status (n = 59) and ultra-high-risk status for schizophrenia (n = 73) and a gender and age-matched control group (n = 45). Strengths and latencies of low- and high-frequency components as estimated by dipole source analysis were compared between groups. Low- and high-frequency source activity was reduced in both groups at risk for schizophrenia, in comparison to the group at risk for bipolar disorders. HFO amplitudes were also significant reduced in subjects with high-risk status for schizophrenia compared to healthy controls. These differences were accentuated among cannabis non-users. Reduced N20 source strengths were related to higher positive symptom load. These results suggest that the risk for schizophrenia, in contrast to bipolar disorders, may involve an impairment of early cerebral somatosensory processing. Neurophysiologic alterations in schizophrenia precede the onset of initial psychotic episode and may serve as indicator of vulnerability for developing schizophrenia.

Early somatosensory processing in individuals at risk for developing psychoses

PubMed Central

Hagenmuller, Florence; Heekeren, Karsten; Theodoridou, Anastasia; Walitza, Susanne; Haker, Helene; Rössler, Wulf; Kawohl, Wolfram

2014-01-01

Human cortical somatosensory evoked potentials (SEPs) allow an accurate investigation of thalamocortical and early cortical processing. SEPs reveal a burst of superimposed early (N20) high-frequency oscillations around 600 Hz. Previous studies reported alterations of SEPs in patients with schizophrenia. This study addresses the question whether those alterations are also observable in populations at risk for developing schizophrenia or bipolar disorders. To our knowledge to date, this is the first study investigating SEPs in a population at risk for developing psychoses. Median nerve SEPs were investigated using multichannel EEG in individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorders (n = 25), individuals with high-risk status (n = 59) and ultra-high-risk status for schizophrenia (n = 73) and a gender and age-matched control group (n = 45). Strengths and latencies of low- and high-frequency components as estimated by dipole source analysis were compared between groups. Low- and high-frequency source activity was reduced in both groups at risk for schizophrenia, in comparison to the group at risk for bipolar disorders. HFO amplitudes were also significant reduced in subjects with high-risk status for schizophrenia compared to healthy controls. These differences were accentuated among cannabis non-users. Reduced N20 source strengths were related to higher positive symptom load. These results suggest that the risk for schizophrenia, in contrast to bipolar disorders, may involve an impairment of early cerebral somatosensory processing. Neurophysiologic alterations in schizophrenia precede the onset of initial psychotic episode and may serve as indicator of vulnerability for developing schizophrenia. PMID:25309363

Paradigm of pretest risk stratification before coronary computed tomography.

PubMed

Jensen, Jesper Møller; Ovrehus, Kristian A; Nielsen, Lene H; Jensen, Jesper K; Larsen, Henrik M; Nørgaard, Bjarne L

2009-01-01

The optimal method of determining the pretest risk of coronary artery disease as a patient selection tool before coronary multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) is unknown. We investigated the ability of 3 different clinical risk scores to predict the outcome of coronary MDCT. This was a retrospective study of 551 patients consecutively referred for coronary MDCT on a suspicion of coronary artery disease. Diamond-Forrester, Duke, and Morise risk models were used to predict coronary artery stenosis (>50%) as assessed by coronary MDCT. The models were compared by receiver operating characteristic analysis. The distribution of low-, intermediate-, and high-risk persons, respectively, was established and compared for each of the 3 risk models. Overall, all risk prediction models performed equally well. However, the Duke risk model classified the low-risk patients more correctly than did the other models (P < 0.01). In patients without coronary artery calcification (CAC), the predictive value of the Duke risk model was superior to the other risk models (P < 0.05). Currently available risk prediction models seem to perform better in patients without CAC. Between the risk prediction models, there was a significant discrepancy in the distribution of patients at low, intermediate, or high risk (P < 0.01). The 3 risk prediction models perform equally well, although the Duke risk score may have advantages in subsets of patients. The choice of risk prediction model affects the referral pattern to MDCT. Copyright (c) 2009 Society of Cardiovascular Computed Tomography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early indicators and risk factors for ethical issues in clinical practice.

PubMed

Pavlish, Carol; Brown-Saltzman, Katherine; Hersh, Mary; Shirk, Marilyn; Nudelman, Olga

2011-03-01

Nurses in all clinical settings encounter ethical issues that frequently lead to moral distress. This critical incident study explored nurses' descriptions of ethically difficult situations to identify risk factors and early indicators of ethical conflicts. Employing the critical incident technique, researchers developed a questionnaire that collected information on ethically difficult situations, their risk factors and early indicators, nurse actions, and situational outcomes. Two nurse researchers independently analyzed and categorized data using a constant comparison technique. Most of the ethically difficult situations pertained to end-of-life care for children and adults. Conflicts in interpersonal relationships were prevalent. Nurses were especially moved by patient and family suffering and concerned about patient vulnerability, harm-benefit ratio, and patient autonomy. Researchers discovered risk factor categories for patients, families, healthcare providers, and health systems. Additionally, researchers found subcategories in six major categories of early indicators: signs of conflict, patient suffering, nurse distress, ethics violation, unrealistic expectations, and poor communication. Nurses are keenly aware of pertinent risk factors and early indicators of unfolding ethical conflicts. Many nurses reported feeling powerless in the face of ethical conflict. Research that develops interventions to strengthen nurses' voices in ethically difficult situation is warranted. Nurses are in a key position to identify patient situations with a high risk for ethical conflict. Initiating early ethics consultation and interventions can alter the course of pending conflicts and diminish the potential for patient and family suffering and nurses' moral distress. © 2011 Sigma Theta Tau International.

How-to-Do-It: A Practical Method for Teaching Seed Stratification.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Englert, Karen M.; Shontz, Nancy N.

1989-01-01

Described is a laboratory procedure for teaching seed stratification. Materials, methods, results, and applicability of the experiment are explained. Diagrams showing the percent of total germination as a function of stratification time and the germination rate of stratified seeds are included. (RT)

End points for validating early warning scores in the context of rapid response systems: a Delphi consensus study.

PubMed

Pedersen, N E; Oestergaard, D; Lippert, A

2016-05-01

When investigating early warning scores and similar physiology-based risk stratification tools, death, cardiac arrest and intensive care unit admission are traditionally used as end points. A large proportion of the patients identified by these end points cannot be saved, even with optimal treatment. This could pose a limitation to studies using these end points. We studied current expert opinion on end points for validating tools for the identification of patients in hospital wards at risk of imminent critical illness. The Delphi consensus methodology was used. We identified 22 experts based on objective criteria; 17 participated in the study. Each expert panel member's suggestions for end points were collected and distributed to the entire expert panel in anonymised form. The experts reviewed, rated and commented the suggested end points through the rounds in the Delphi process, and the experts' combined rating of the usefulness of each suggestion was established. A gross list of 86 suggestions for end points, relating to 13 themes, was produced. No items were uniformly recognised as ideal. The themes cardiac arrest, death, and level of care contained the items receiving highest ratings. End points relating to death, cardiac arrest and intensive care unit admission currently comprise the most obvious compromises for investigating early warning scores and similar risk stratification tools. Additional end points from the gross list of suggested end points could become feasible with the increased availability of large data sets with a multitude of recorded parameters. © 2015 The Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk factors for early cytologic abnormalities after loop electrosurgical excision procedure.

PubMed

Dietrich, Charles S; Yancey, Michael K; Miyazawa, Kunio; Williams, David L; Farley, John

2002-02-01

To evaluate risk factors for early cytologic abnormalities and recurrent cervical dysplasia after loop electrosurgical excision procedure (LEEP). A retrospective analysis was performed of all pathology records for LEEPs performed at our institution from January 1996 through July 1998. Follow-up cytology from 2 through 12 months after LEEP was reviewed. Patients with abnormal cytology were referred for further colposcopic evaluation. Statistical analysis using chi2 test for trend, proportional hazards model test, Fisher exact tests, and life table analysis were performed to identify risk factors for early cytologic abnormalities after LEEP and to determine relative risk of recurrent dysplasia. A total of 298 women underwent LEEP during the study period, and 29% of these had cytologic abnormalities after LEEP. Grade of dysplasia, ectocervical marginal status, endocervical marginal status, and glandular involvement with dysplasia were not found to be independent risk factors for early cytologic abnormalities. However, when risk factors were analyzed cumulatively, the abnormal cytology rate increased from 24% with no risk factors to 67% with three risk factors present (P =.037). Of patients with abnormal cytology after LEEP, 40% developed subsequent dysplasia, and the mean time to diagnosis was approximately 6 months. The relative risk of subsequent dysplasia ranged from a 20% increase to twice the risk if post-LEEP cytology was low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion or high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion, respectively. Based on these results, consideration should be given for early colposcopic examination of patients who have evidence of marginal involvement or endocervical glandular involvement with dysplasia. These patients are at increased risk for abnormal cytology and recurrent dysplasia. This initial visit should occur at 6 months, as the mean time to recurrence of dysplasia was 6.5 months.

Pulmonary 18F-FDG uptake helps refine current risk stratification in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).

PubMed

Win, Thida; Screaton, Nicholas J; Porter, Joanna C; Ganeshan, Balaji; Maher, Toby M; Fraioli, Francesco; Endozo, Raymondo; Shortman, Robert I; Hurrell, Lynn; Holman, Beverley F; Thielemans, Kris; Rashidnasab, Alaleh; Hutton, Brian F; Lukey, Pauline T; Flynn, Aiden; Ell, Peter J; Groves, Ashley M

2018-05-01

There is a lack of prognostic biomarkers in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) patients. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential of 18 F-FDG-PET/ CT to predict mortality in IPF. A total of 113 IPF patients (93 males, 20 females, mean age ± SD: 70 ± 9 years) were prospectively recruited for 18 F-FDG-PET/CT. The overall maximum pulmonary uptake of 18 F-FDG (SUV max ), the minimum pulmonary uptake or background lung activity (SUV min ), and target-to-background (SUV max / SUV min ) ratio (TBR) were quantified using routine region-of-interest analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to identify associations of PET measurements with mortality. We also compared PET associations with IPF mortality with the established GAP (gender age and physiology) scoring system. Cox analysis assessed the independence of the significant PET measurement(s) from GAP score. We investigated synergisms between pulmonary 18 F-FDG-PET measurements and GAP score for risk stratification in IPF patients. During a mean follow-up of 29 months, there were 54 deaths. The mean TBR ± SD was 5.6 ± 2.7. Mortality was associated with high pulmonary TBR (p = 0.009), low forced vital capacity (FVC; p = 0.001), low transfer factor (TLCO; p < 0.001), high GAP index (p = 0.003), and high GAP stage (p = 0.003). Stepwise forward-Wald-Cox analysis revealed that the pulmonary TBR was independent of GAP classification (p = 0.010). The median survival in IPF patients with a TBR < 4.9 was 71 months, whilst in those with TBR > 4.9 was 24 months. Combining PET data with GAP data ("PET modified GAP score") refined the ability to predict mortality. A high pulmonary TBR is independently associated with increased risk of mortality in IPF patients.

TP53 Mutational Status Is a Potential Marker for Risk Stratification in Wilms Tumour with Diffuse Anaplasia

PubMed Central

Chagtai, Tasnim; Popov, Sergey D.; Sebire, Neil J.; Vujanic, Gordan; Perlman, Elizabeth; Anderson, James R.; Grundy, Paul; Dome, Jeffrey S.; Pritchard-Jones, Kathy

2014-01-01

Purpose The presence of diffuse anaplasia in Wilms tumours (DAWT) is associated with TP53 mutations and poor outcome. As patients receive intensified treatment, we sought to identify whether TP53 mutational status confers additional prognostic information. Patients and Methods We studied 40 patients with DAWT with anaplasia in the tissue from which DNA was extracted and analysed for TP53 mutations and 17p loss. The majority of cases were profiled by copy number (n = 32) and gene expression (n = 36) arrays. TP53 mutational status was correlated with patient event-free and overall survival, genomic copy number instability and gene expression profiling. Results From the 40 cases, 22 (55%) had TP53 mutations (2 detected only after deep-sequencing), 20 of which also had 17p loss (91%); 18 (45%) cases had no detectable mutation but three had 17p loss. Tumours with TP53 mutations and/or 17p loss (n = 25) had an increased risk of recurrence as a first event (p = 0.03, hazard ratio (HR), 3.89; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26–16.0) and death (p = 0.04, HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.36–31.7) compared to tumours lacking TP53 abnormalities. DAWT carrying TP53 mutations showed increased copy number alterations compared to those with wild-type, suggesting a more unstable genome (p = 0.03). These tumours showed deregulation of genes associated with cell cycle and DNA repair biological processes. Conclusion This study provides evidence that TP53 mutational analysis improves risk stratification in DAWT. This requires validation in an independent cohort before clinical use as a biomarker. PMID:25313908

TP53 mutational status is a potential marker for risk stratification in Wilms tumour with diffuse anaplasia.

PubMed

Maschietto, Mariana; Williams, Richard D; Chagtai, Tasnim; Popov, Sergey D; Sebire, Neil J; Vujanic, Gordan; Perlman, Elizabeth; Anderson, James R; Grundy, Paul; Dome, Jeffrey S; Pritchard-Jones, Kathy

2014-01-01

The presence of diffuse anaplasia in Wilms tumours (DAWT) is associated with TP53 mutations and poor outcome. As patients receive intensified treatment, we sought to identify whether TP53 mutational status confers additional prognostic information. We studied 40 patients with DAWT with anaplasia in the tissue from which DNA was extracted and analysed for TP53 mutations and 17p loss. The majority of cases were profiled by copy number (n = 32) and gene expression (n = 36) arrays. TP53 mutational status was correlated with patient event-free and overall survival, genomic copy number instability and gene expression profiling. From the 40 cases, 22 (55%) had TP53 mutations (2 detected only after deep-sequencing), 20 of which also had 17p loss (91%); 18 (45%) cases had no detectable mutation but three had 17p loss. Tumours with TP53 mutations and/or 17p loss (n = 25) had an increased risk of recurrence as a first event (p = 0.03, hazard ratio (HR), 3.89; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26-16.0) and death (p = 0.04, HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.36-31.7) compared to tumours lacking TP53 abnormalities. DAWT carrying TP53 mutations showed increased copy number alterations compared to those with wild-type, suggesting a more unstable genome (p = 0.03). These tumours showed deregulation of genes associated with cell cycle and DNA repair biological processes. This study provides evidence that TP53 mutational analysis improves risk stratification in DAWT. This requires validation in an independent cohort before clinical use as a biomarker.

Early-life family structure and microbially induced cancer risk.

PubMed

Blaser, Martin J; Nomura, Abraham; Lee, James; Stemmerman, Grant N; Perez-Perez, Guillermo I

2007-01-01

Cancer may follow exposure to an environmental agent after many decades. The bacterium Helicobacter pylori, known to be acquired early in life, increases risk for gastric adenocarcinoma, but other factors are also important. In this study, we considered whether early-life family structure affects the risk of later developing gastric cancer among H. pylori+ men. We examined a long-term cohort of Japanese-American men followed for 28 y, and performed a nested case-control study among those carrying H. pylori or the subset carrying the most virulent cagA+ H. pylori strains to address whether family structure predicted cancer development. We found that among the men who were H. pylori+ and/or cagA+ (it is possible to be cagA+ and H. pylori- if the H. pylori test is falsely negative), belonging to a large sibship or higher birth order was associated with a significantly increased risk of developing gastric adenocarcinoma late in life. For those with cagA+ strains, the risk of developing gastric cancer was more than twice as high (odds ratio 2.2; 95% confidence interval 1.2-4.0) among those in a sibship of seven or more individuals than in a sibship of between one and three persons. These results provide evidence that early-life social environment plays a significant role in risk of microbially induced malignancies expressing five to eight decades later, and these findings lead to new models to explain these interactions.

Early pulmonary vascular disease in preterm infants at risk for bronchopulmonary dysplasia.

PubMed

Mourani, Peter M; Sontag, Marci K; Younoszai, Adel; Miller, Joshua I; Kinsella, John P; Baker, Christopher D; Poindexter, Brenda B; Ingram, David A; Abman, Steven H

2015-01-01

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is associated with poor outcomes among preterm infants with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), but whether early signs of pulmonary vascular disease are associated with the subsequent development of BPD or PH at 36 weeks post-menstrual age (PMA) is unknown. To prospectively evaluate the relationship of early echocardiogram signs of pulmonary vascular disease in preterm infants to the subsequent development of BPD and late PH (at 36 wk PMA). Prospectively enrolled preterm infants with birthweights 500-1,250 g underwent echocardiogram evaluations at 7 days of age (early) and 36 weeks PMA (late). Clinical and echocardiographic data were analyzed to identify early risk factors for BPD and late PH. A total of 277 preterm infants completed echocardiogram and BPD assessments at 36 weeks PMA. The median gestational age at birth and birthweight of the infants were 27 weeks and 909 g, respectively. Early PH was identified in 42% of infants, and 14% were diagnosed with late PH. Early PH was a risk factor for increased BPD severity (relative risk, 1.12; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.23) and late PH (relative risk, 2.85; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-6.33). Infants with late PH had greater duration of oxygen therapy and increased mortality in the first year of life (P < 0.05). Early pulmonary vascular disease is associated with the development of BPD and with late PH in preterm infants. Echocardiograms at 7 days of age may be a useful tool to identify infants at high risk for BPD and PH.

Risk stratification after paracetamol overdose using mechanistic biomarkers: results from two prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Dear, James W; Clarke, Joanna I; Francis, Ben; Allen, Lowri; Wraight, Jonathan; Shen, Jasmine; Dargan, Paul I; Wood, David; Cooper, Jamie; Thomas, Simon H L; Jorgensen, Andrea L; Pirmohamed, Munir; Park, B Kevin; Antoine, Daniel J

2018-02-01

Paracetamol overdose is common but patient stratification is suboptimal. We investigated the usefulness of new biomarkers that have either enhanced liver specificity (microRNA-122 [miR-122]) or provide mechanistic insights (keratin-18 [K18], high mobility group box-1 [HMGB1], and glutamate dehydrogenase [GLDH]). The use of these biomarkers could help stratify patients for their risk of liver injury at hospital presentation. Using data from two prospective cohort studies, we assessed the potential for biomarkers to stratify patients who overdose with paracetamol. We completed two independent prospective studies: a derivation study (MAPP) in eight UK hospitals and a validation study (BIOPAR) in ten UK hospitals. Patients in both cohorts were adults (≥18 years in England, ≥16 years in Scotland), were diagnosed with paracetamol overdose, and gave written informed consent. Patients who needed intravenous acetylcysteine treatment for paracetamol overdose had circulating biomarkers measured at hospital presentation. The primary endpoint was acute liver injury indicating need for continued acetylcysteine treatment beyond the standard course (alanine aminotransferase [ALT] activity >100 U/L). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, category-free net reclassification index (cfNRI), and integrated discrimination index (IDI) were applied to assess endpoint prediction. Between June 2, 2010, and May 29, 2014, 1187 patients who required acetylcysteine treatment for paracetamol overdose were recruited (985 in the MAPP cohort; 202 in the BIOPAR cohort). In the derivation and validation cohorts, acute liver injury was predicted at hospital presentation by miR-122 (derivation cohort ROC-area under the curve [AUC] 0·97 [95% CI 0·95-0·98]), HMGB1 (0·95 [0·93-0·98]), and full-length K18 (0·95 [0·92-0·97]). Results were similar in the validation cohort (miR-122 AUC 0·97 [95% CI 0·95-0·99], HMGB1 0·98 [0·96-0·99], and full-length K18 0·93 [0·86-0·99]). A

Hearing loss and risk of early retirement. The HUNT study

PubMed Central

Krokstad, Steinar; Tambs, Kristian

2013-01-01

Background: We explore the possible consequences of measured hearing impairment (HI) and perceived hearing difficulties for early retirement in a large population-based study. Furthermore, we study whether having a part-time position was associated with measured HI and perceived hearing difficulties in the same population. Methods: This study included 25 740 persons from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) aged 20–54 years at baseline in HUNT1 (1984–1986) who also participated in the follow up, HUNT2, including a hearing examination 11 years later. Logistic regression analysis was conducted for men and women separately and in two age strata. Effects of low-, middle- and high-frequency hearing levels were explored, adjusting for each other. Further adjustment was made for socio-economic class and general health in HUNT1. Results: The risk of early retirement increased with degree of loss of low-frequency hearing in young and middle-aged men and middle-aged women. The middle-aged men and women experiencing hearing disability had an increased risk of early retirement. Degree of hearing level was not associated with part-time work, but in middle-aged men, awareness of having a hearing loss was associated with part-time employment. Conclusions: Degree of low-frequency hearing loss was associated with early retirement but not with part-time work. Perceived hearing disability increased the risk of early retirement in middle-aged men and women and also the risk of part-time work in middle-aged men. PMID:22930741

The bio-optical properties of CDOM as descriptor of lake stratification.

PubMed

Bracchini, Luca; Dattilo, Arduino Massimo; Hull, Vincent; Loiselle, Steven Arthur; Martini, Silvia; Rossi, Claudio; Santinelli, Chiara; Seritti, Alfredo

2006-11-01

Multivariate statistical techniques are used to demonstrate the fundamental role of CDOM optical properties in the description of water masses during the summer stratification of a deep lake. PC1 was linked with dissolved species and PC2 with suspended particles. In the first principal component that the role of CDOM bio-optical properties give a better description of the stratification of the Salto Lake with respect to temperature. The proposed multivariate approach can be used for the analysis of different stratified aquatic ecosystems in relation to interaction between bio-optical properties and stratification of the water body.

Thermal stratification potential in rocket engine coolant channels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kacynski, Kenneth J.

1992-01-01

The potential for rocket engine coolant channel flow stratification was computationally studied. A conjugate, 3-D, conduction/advection analysis code (SINDA/FLUINT) was used. Core fluid temperatures were predicted to vary by over 360 K across the coolant channel, at the throat section, indicating that the conventional assumption of a fully mixed fluid may be extremely inaccurate. Because of the thermal stratification of the fluid, the walls exposed to the rocket engine exhaust gases will be hotter than an assumption of full mixing would imply. In this analysis, wall temperatures were 160 K hotter in the turbulent mixing case than in the full mixing case. The discrepancy between the full mixing and turbulent mixing analyses increased with increasing heat transfer. Both analysis methods predicted identical channel resistances at the coolant inlet, but in the stratified analysis the thermal resistance was negligible. The implications are significant. Neglect of thermal stratification could lead to underpredictions in nozzle wall temperatures. Even worse, testing at subscale conditions may be inadequate for modeling conditions that would exist in a full scale engine.

High resolution monitoring of episodic stratification events in an enclosed marine system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, Timothy; Broszeit, Stefanie; O'Sullivan, Keith P. A.; McAllen, Rob; Davenport, John; Regan, Fiona

2013-05-01

While hypoxic and anoxic environments have existed throughout geological time, their frequency of occurrence in shallow coastal and estuarine areas appears to be increasing. However, few data are available on the physicochemical conditions at the boundary between anoxic and normoxic layers, including the conditions required for both formation and dissipation of stratification. Advances in autonomous environmental sensing technology have produced robust sensors capable of detailed measurements under inhospitable conditions created in such environments. In this study, an autonomous sensor approach was used to compare water column properties above and below the stratification before during and after dissipation of the stratification. Further, an investigation into the effect of the stratification on sedimentation rates of organic and inorganic matter and current speeds is reported here. Lough Hyne, a seasonally stratified temperate marine lake provided favourable conditions for this study. It was shown that temperatures dropped rapidly above the oxy-thermocline while increasing rapidly below the stratification, leading to a mixing of the complete water column. This was reflected in oxygen measurements below the stratification, which rose from anoxia to normoxic conditions over the same time period. During summer, the thermocline formed a barrier to organic matter sedimentation, reducing it significantly when present, while inorganic matter sedimentation was unaffected by the presence of thermocline. It also caused a reduction in current speeds below the thermocline.

Prospective Validation of ATA and ETA Sonographic Pattern Risk of Thyroid Nodules Selected for FNAC.

PubMed

Maino, Fabio; Forleo, Raffaella; Martinelli, Martina; Fralassi, Noemi; Barbato, Filomena; Pilli, Tania; Capezzone, Marco; Brilli, Lucia; Ciuoli, Cristina; Di Cairano, Giovanni; Nigi, Laura; Pacini, Furio; Castagna, Maria Grazia

2018-06-01

Recently, the American Thyroid Association (ATA) and the European Thyroid Association (ETA) have proposed that thyroid ultrasound (US) should be used to stratify the risk of malignancy in thyroid nodules and to aid decision-making about whether fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) is indicated. To validate and to compare the ATA and ETA US risk stratification systems of thyroid nodules in a prospective series of thyroid nodules submitted to FNAC. We prospectively evaluated 432 thyroid nodules selected for FNAC from 340 patients. Cytology reports were based on the five categories according to the criteria of the British Thyroid Association. The proportion of Thy2 nodules decreased significantly, whereas the proportion of Thy4/Thy5 nodules significantly increased with increasing US risk class (P < 0.0001). The ability to identify benign and malignant nodules was similar between ATA and ETA systems. According to ATA and ETA US risk stratification systems, 23.7% and 56.0% nodules did not meet the criteria for FNAC, respectively. Considering only categories at lower risk of malignancy, the cumulative malignancy rate in these nodules was 1.2% for ATA and 1.7% for ETA US risk stratification systems. ETA and ATA US risk stratification systems provide effective malignancy risk stratification for thyroid nodules. In clinical practice, using this approach, we should be able to reduce the number of unnecessary FNAC without losing clinically relevant thyroid cancer.

Current indications for transplantation: stratification of severe heart failure and shared decision-making

PubMed Central

Vucicevic, Darko; Honoris, Lily; Raia, Federica

2018-01-01

Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome that results from structural or functional cardiovascular disorders causing a mismatch between demand and supply of oxygenated blood and consecutive failure of the body’s organs. For those patients with stage D HF, advanced therapies, such as mechanical circulatory support (MCS) or heart transplantation (HTx), are potentially life-saving options. The role of risk stratification of patients with stage D HF in a value-based healthcare framework is to predict which subset might benefit from advanced HF (AdHF) therapies, to improve outcomes related to the individual patient including mortality, morbidity and patient experience as well as to optimize health care delivery system outcomes such as cost-effectiveness. Risk stratification and subsequent outcome prediction as well as therapeutic recommendation-making need to be based on the comparative survival benefit rationale. A robust model needs to (I) have the power to discriminate (i.e., to correctly risk stratify patients); (II) calibrate (i.e., to show agreement between the predicted and observed risk); (III) to be applicable to the general population; and (IV) provide good external validation. The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS) are two of the most widely utilized scores. However, outcomes for patients with HF are highly variable which make clinical predictions challenging. Despite our clinical expertise and current prediction tools, the best short- and long-term survival for the individual patient, particularly the sickest patient, is not easy to identify because among the most severely ill, elderly and frail patients, most preoperative prediction tools have the tendency to be imprecise in estimating risk. They should be used as a guide in a clinical encounter grounded in a culture of shared decision-making, with the expert healthcare professional team as consultants and the patient as an empowered decision-maker in a

Abundance stratification in the atmospheres of blue horizontal-branch stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LeBlanc, F.