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Sample records for early transmission dynamics

  1. Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.

    PubMed

    Fournié, Guillaume; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Bendrey, Robin

    2017-02-01

    Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella . Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis , the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen.

  2. Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations

    PubMed Central

    Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Bendrey, Robin

    2017-01-01

    Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella. Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis, the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen. PMID:28386446

  3. Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in Iceland: Early introductions, transmission dynamics and recent outbreaks among injection drug users.

    PubMed

    Sallam, Malik; Esbjörnsson, Joakim; Baldvinsdóttir, Guðrún; Indriðason, Hlynur; Björnsdóttir, Thora Björg; Widell, Anders; Gottfreðsson, Magnús; Löve, Arthur; Medstrand, Patrik

    2017-04-01

    The molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in Iceland has not been described so far. Detailed analyses of the dynamics of HIV-1 can give insights for prevention of virus spread. The objective of the current study was to characterize the genetic diversity and transmission dynamics of HIV-1 in Iceland. Partial HIV-1 pol (1020bp) sequences were generated from 230 Icelandic samples, representing 77% of all HIV-1 infected individuals reported in the country 1985-2012. Maximum likelihood phylogenies were reconstructed for subtype/CRF assignment and determination of transmission clusters. Timing and demographic growth patterns were determined in BEAST. HIV-1 infection in Iceland was dominated by subtype B (63%, n=145) followed by subtype C (10%, n=23), CRF01_AE (10%, n=22), sub-subtype A1 (7%, n=15) and CRF02_AG (7%, n=15). Trend analysis showed an increase in non-B subtypes/CRFs in Iceland over the study period (p=0.003). The highest proportion of phylogenetic clustering was found among injection drug users (IDUs; 89%), followed by heterosexuals (70%) and men who have sex with men (35%). The time to the most recent common ancestor of the oldest subtype B cluster dated back to 1978 (median estimate, 95% highest posterior density interval: 1974-1981) suggesting an early introduction of HIV-1 into Iceland. A previously reported increase in HIV-1 incidence among IDUs 2009-2011 was revealed to be due to two separate outbreaks. Our study showed that a variety of HIV-1 subtypes and CRFs were prevalent in Iceland 1985-2012, with subtype B being the dominant form both in terms of prevalence and domestic spread. The rapid increase of HIV-1 infections among IDUs following a major economic crisis in Iceland raises questions about casual associations between economic factors, drug use and public health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Transmission dynamics: critical questions and challenges

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    This article overviews the dynamics of disease transmission in one-host–one-parasite systems. Transmission is the result of interacting host and pathogen processes, encapsulated with the environment in a ‘transmission triangle’. Multiple transmission modes and their epidemiological consequences are often not understood because the direct measurement of transmission is difficult. However, its different components can be analysed using nonlinear transmission functions, contact matrices and networks. A particular challenge is to develop such functions for spatially extended systems. This is illustrated for vector transmission where a ‘perception kernel’ approach is developed that incorporates vector behaviour in response to host spacing. A major challenge is understanding the relative merits of the large number of approaches to quantifying transmission. The evolution of transmission mode itself has been a rather neglected topic, but is important in the context of understanding disease emergence and genetic variation in pathogens. Disease impacts many biological processes such as community stability, the evolution of sex and speciation, yet the importance of different transmission modes in these processes is not understood. Broader approaches and ideas to disease transmission are important in the public health realm for combating newly emerging infections. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’. PMID:28289255

  5. Global dynamic modeling of a transmission system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choy, F. K.; Qian, W.

    1993-01-01

    The work performed on global dynamic simulation and noise correlation of gear transmission systems at the University of Akron is outlined. The objective is to develop a comprehensive procedure to simulate the dynamics of the gear transmission system coupled with the effects of gear box vibrations. The developed numerical model is benchmarked with results from experimental tests at NASA Lewis Research Center. The modal synthesis approach is used to develop the global transient vibration analysis procedure used in the model. Modal dynamic characteristics of the rotor-gear-bearing system are calculated by the matrix transfer method while those of the gear box are evaluated by the finite element method (NASTRAN). A three-dimensional, axial-lateral coupled bearing model is used to couple the rotor vibrations with the gear box motion. The vibrations between the individual rotor systems are coupled through the nonlinear gear mesh interactions. The global equations of motion are solved in modal coordinates and the transient vibration of the system is evaluated by a variable time-stepping integration scheme. The relationship between housing vibration and resulting noise of the gear transmission system is generated by linear transfer functions using experimental data. A nonlinear relationship of the noise components to the fundamental mesh frequency is developed using the hypercoherence function. The numerically simulated vibrations and predicted noise of the gear transmission system are compared with the experimental results from the gear noise test rig at NASA Lewis Research Center. Results of the comparison indicate that the global dynamic model developed can accurately simulate the dynamics of a gear transmission system.

  6. Dynamics of a split torque helicopter transmission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rashidi, Majid; Krantz, Timothy

    1992-01-01

    A high reduction ratio split torque gear train has been proposed as an alternative to a planetary configuration for the final stage of a helicopter transmission. A split torque design allows a high ratio of power-to-weight for the transmission. The design studied in this work includes a pivoting beam that acts to balance thrust loads produced by the helical gear meshes in each of two parallel power paths. When the thrust loads are balanced, the torque is split evenly. A mathematical model was developed to study the dynamics of the system. The effects of time varying gear mesh stiffness, static transmission errors, and flexible bearing supports are included in the model. The model was demonstrated with a test case. Results show that although the gearbox has a symmetric configuration, the simulated dynamic behavior of the first and second compound gears are not the same. Also, results show that shaft location and mesh stiffness tuning are significant design parameters that influence the motions of the system.

  7. Chancroid transmission dynamics: a mathematical modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Bhunu, C P; Mushayabasa, S

    2011-12-01

    Mathematical models have long been used to better understand disease transmission dynamics and how to effectively control them. Here, a chancroid infection model is presented and analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. High levels of treatment are shown to reduce the reproduction number suggesting that treatment has the potential to control chancroid infections in any given community. This result is also supported by numerical simulations which show a decline in chancroid cases whenever the reproduction number is less than unity.

  8. Dynamics of Pertussis Transmission in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Magpantay, F. M. G.; Rohani, P.

    2015-01-01

    Past patterns of infectious disease transmission set the stage on which modern epidemiologic dynamics are played out. Here, we present a comprehensive account of pertussis (whooping cough) transmission in the United States during the early vaccine era. We analyzed recently digitized weekly incidence records from Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports from 1938 to 1955, when the whole-cell pertussis vaccine was rolled out, and related them to contemporary patterns of transmission and resurgence documented in monthly incidence data from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. We found that, during the early vaccine era, pertussis epidemics in US states could be categorized as 1) annual, 2) initially annual and later multiennial, or 3) multiennial. States with predominantly annual cycles tended to have higher per capita birth rates, more household crowding, more children per family, and lower rates of school attendance than the states with multiennial cycles. Additionally, states that exhibited annual epidemics during 1938–1955 have had the highest recent (2001–2010) incidence, while those states that transitioned from annual cycles to multiennial cycles have had relatively low recent incidence. Our study provides an extensive picture of pertussis epidemiology in the United States dating back to the onset of vaccination, a back-story that could aid epidemiologists in understanding contemporary transmission patterns. PMID:26022662

  9. Avian Influenza spread and transmission dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bourouiba, Lydia; Gourley, Stephen A.; Liu, Rongsong; Takekawa, John Y.; Wu, Jianhong; Chen, Dongmei; Moulin, Bernard; Wu, Jianhong

    2015-01-01

    The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of type A of subtype H5N1 has been a serious threat to global public health. Understanding the roles of various (migratory, wild, poultry) bird species in the transmission of these viruses is critical for designing and implementing effective control and intervention measures. Developing appropriate models and mathematical techniques to understand these roles and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies have been a challenge. Recent development of the global health surveillance (especially satellite tracking and GIS techniques) and the mathematical theory of dynamical systems combined have gradually shown the promise of some cutting-edge methodologies and techniques in mathematical biology to meet this challenge.

  10. The dynamics of transmission and the dynamics of networks.

    PubMed

    Farine, Damien

    2017-05-01

    A toy example depicted here highlighting the results of a study in this issue of the Journal of Animal Ecology that investigates the impact of network dynamics on potential disease outbreaks. Infections (stars) that spread by contact only (left) reduce the predicted outbreak size compared to situations where individuals can become infected by moving through areas that previously contained infected individuals (right). This is potentially important in species where individuals, or in this case groups, have overlapping ranges (as depicted on the top right). Incorporating network dynamics that maintain information about the ordering of contacts (central blocks; including the ordering of spatial overlap as noted by the arrows that highlight the blue group arriving after the red group in top-right of the figure) is important for capturing how a disease might not have the opportunity to spread to all individuals. By contrast, a static or 'average' network (lower blocks) does not capture any of these dynamics. Interestingly, although static networks generally predict larger outbreak sizes, the authors find that in cases when transmission probability is low, this prediction can switch as a result of changes in the estimated intensity of contacts among individuals. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]. Springer, A., Kappeler, P.M. & Nunn, C.L. (2017) Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: Predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs. Journal of Animal Ecology, 86, 419-433. The spread of disease or information through networks can be affected by several factors. Whether and how these factors are accounted for can fundamentally change the predicted impact of a spreading epidemic. Springer, Kappeler & Nunn () investigate the role of different modes of transmission and network dynamics on the predicted size of a disease outbreak across several groups of Verreaux's sifakas, a group-living species of lemur. While some factors

  11. Neural dynamics underlying emotional transmissions between individuals

    PubMed Central

    Levit-Binnun, Nava; Hendler, Talma; Lerner, Yulia

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Emotional experiences are frequently shaped by the emotional responses of co-present others. Research has shown that people constantly monitor and adapt to the incoming social–emotional signals, even without face-to-face interaction. And yet, the neural processes underlying such emotional transmissions have not been directly studied. Here, we investigated how the human brain processes emotional cues which arrive from another, co-attending individual. We presented continuous emotional feedback to participants who viewed a movie in the scanner. Participants in the social group (but not in the control group) believed that the feedback was coming from another person who was co-viewing the same movie. We found that social–emotional feedback significantly affected the neural dynamics both in the core affect and in the medial pre-frontal regions. Specifically, the response time-courses in those regions exhibited increased similarity across recipients and increased neural alignment with the timeline of the feedback in the social compared with control group. Taken in conjunction with previous research, this study suggests that emotional cues from others shape the neural dynamics across the whole neural continuum of emotional processing in the brain. Moreover, it demonstrates that interpersonal neural alignment can serve as a neural mechanism through which affective information is conveyed between individuals. PMID:28575520

  12. Dynamics of a split torque helicopter transmission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krantz, Timothy L.

    1994-06-01

    Split torque designs, proposed as alternatives to traditional planetary designs for helicopter main rotor transmissions, can save weight and be more reliable than traditional designs. This report presents the results of an analytical study of the system dynamics and performance of a split torque gearbox that uses a balance beam mechanism for load sharing. The Lagrange method was applied to develop a system of equations of motion. The mathematical model includes time-varying gear mesh stiffness, friction, and manufacturing errors. Cornell's method for calculating the stiffness of spur gear teeth was extended and applied to helical gears. The phenomenon of sidebands spaced at shaft frequencies about gear mesh fundamental frequencies was simulated by modeling total composite gear errors as sinusoid functions. Although the gearbox has symmetric geometry, the loads and motions of the two power paths differ. Friction must be considered to properly evaluate the balance beam mechanism. For the design studied, the balance beam is not an effective device for load sharing unless the coefficient of friction is less than 0.003. The complete system stiffness as represented by the stiffness matrix used in this analysis must be considered to precisely determine the optimal tooth indexing position.

  13. Nonlinear system guidance in the presence of transmission zero dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meyer, G.; Hunt, L. R.; Su, R.

    1995-01-01

    An iterative procedure is proposed for computing the commanded state trajectories and controls that guide a possibly multiaxis, time-varying, nonlinear system with transmission zero dynamics through a given arbitrary sequence of control points. The procedure is initialized by the system inverse with the transmission zero effects nulled out. Then the 'steady state' solution of the perturbation model with the transmission zero dynamics intact is computed and used to correct the initial zero-free solution. Both time domain and frequency domain methods are presented for computing the steady state solutions of the possibly nonminimum phase transmission zero dynamics. The procedure is illustrated by means of linear and nonlinear examples.

  14. [Transmission dynamic model for echinococcosis granulosus: establishment and application].

    PubMed

    Yang, Shi-Jie; Wu, Wei-Ping

    2009-06-01

    A dynamic model of disease can be used to quantitatively describe the pattern and characteristics of disease transmission, predict the disease status and evaluate the efficacy of control strategy. This review summarizes the basic transmission dynamic models of echinococcosis granulosus and their application.

  15. HIV Infection: Transmission, Effects on Early Development, and Interventions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lowenthal, Barbara

    1997-01-01

    Describes the modes of transmission of HIV and the course of the disease in infants and toddlers. Information is provided on its effects on early development, medical screening and treatments, therapies, psychosocial assistance, and interventions, including nutritional therapy, occupational and physical therapies, and speech and language therapy.…

  16. Wolbachia transmission dynamics in Formica wood ants

    PubMed Central

    2008-01-01

    Background The role of Wolbachia endosymbionts in shaping the mitochondrial diversity of their arthropod host depends on the effects they have on host reproduction and on the mode of transmission of the bacteria. We have compared the sequence diversity of wsp (Wolbachia surface protein gene) and the host mtDNA in a group of Formica ant species that have diverged approximately 0.5 million years ago (MYA). The aim was to study the relationship of Wolbachia and its ant hosts in terms of vertical and horizontal transmission of the bacteria. Results All studied ant species were doubly infected with two Wolbachia strains (wFex1 and wFex4) all over their geographical distribution area in Eurasia. The most common haplotypes of these strains were identical with strains previously described from a more distantly related Formica ant, with an estimated divergence time of 3.5 – 4 MYA. Some strain haplotypes were associated to the same or closely related mtDNA haplotypes as expected under vertical transmission. However, in several cases the wsp haplotypes coexisted with distant mtDNA haplotypes, a pattern which is more compatible with horizontal transmission of the bacteria. Conclusion Two lines of evidence suggest that the sharing of Wolbachia strains by all F. rufa species is rather due to horizontal than vertical transmission. First, the fact that endosymbiont strains identical to those of F. rufa ants have been found in another species that diverged 3.5–4 MYA strongly suggests that horizontal transfer can and does occur between Formica ants. Second, the frequent sharing of identical Wolbachia strains by distant mitochondrial lineages within the F. rufa group further shows that horizontal transmission has occurred repeatedly. Nevertheless, our dataset also provides some evidence for longer-term persistence of infection, indicating that Wolbachia infection within this host clade has been shaped by both horizontal and vertical transmission of symbionts. The fact that all

  17. Life and dynamic capacity modeling for aircraft transmissions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Savage, Michael

    1991-01-01

    A computer program to simulate the dynamic capacity and life of parallel shaft aircraft transmissions is presented. Five basic configurations can be analyzed: single mesh, compound, parallel, reverted, and single plane reductions. In execution, the program prompts the user for the data file prefix name, takes input from a ASCII file, and writes its output to a second ASCII file with the same prefix name. The input data file includes the transmission configuration, the input shaft torque and speed, and descriptions of the transmission geometry and the component gears and bearings. The program output file describes the transmission, its components, their capabilities, locations, and loads. It also lists the dynamic capability, ninety percent reliability, and mean life of each component and the transmission as a system. Here, the program, its input and output files, and the theory behind the operation of the program are described.

  18. Dynamics of Mechanical Signal Transmission through Prestressed Stress Fibers

    PubMed Central

    Hwang, Yongyun; Barakat, Abdul I.

    2012-01-01

    Transmission of mechanical stimuli through the actin cytoskeleton has been proposed as a mechanism for rapid long-distance mechanotransduction in cells; however, a quantitative understanding of the dynamics of this transmission and the physical factors governing it remains lacking. Two key features of the actin cytoskeleton are its viscoelastic nature and the presence of prestress due to actomyosin motor activity. We develop a model of mechanical signal transmission through prestressed viscoelastic actin stress fibers that directly connect the cell surface to the nucleus. The analysis considers both temporally stationary and oscillatory mechanical signals and accounts for cytosolic drag on the stress fibers. To elucidate the physical parameters that govern mechanical signal transmission, we initially focus on the highly simplified case of a single stress fiber. The results demonstrate that the dynamics of mechanical signal transmission depend on whether the applied force leads to transverse or axial motion of the stress fiber. For transverse motion, mechanical signal transmission is dominated by prestress while fiber elasticity has a negligible effect. Conversely, signal transmission for axial motion is mediated uniquely by elasticity due to the absence of a prestress restoring force. Mechanical signal transmission is significantly delayed by stress fiber material viscosity, while cytosolic damping becomes important only for longer stress fibers. Only transverse motion yields the rapid and long-distance mechanical signal transmission dynamics observed experimentally. For simple networks of stress fibers, mechanical signals are transmitted rapidly to the nucleus when the fibers are oriented largely orthogonal to the applied force, whereas the presence of fibers parallel to the applied force slows down mechanical signal transmission significantly. The present results suggest that cytoskeletal prestress mediates rapid mechanical signal transmission and allows

  19. Combining epidemiological and genetic networks signifies the importance of early treatment in HIV-1 transmission.

    PubMed

    Zarrabi, Narges; Prosperi, Mattia; Belleman, Robert G; Colafigli, Manuela; De Luca, Andrea; Sloot, Peter M A

    2012-01-01

    Inferring disease transmission networks is important in epidemiology in order to understand and prevent the spread of infectious diseases. Reconstruction of the infection transmission networks requires insight into viral genome data as well as social interactions. For the HIV-1 epidemic, current research either uses genetic information of patients' virus to infer the past infection events or uses statistics of sexual interactions to model the network structure of viral spreading. Methods for a reliable reconstruction of HIV-1 transmission dynamics, taking into account both molecular and societal data are still lacking. The aim of this study is to combine information from both genetic and epidemiological scales to characterize and analyse a transmission network of the HIV-1 epidemic in central Italy.We introduce a novel filter-reduction method to build a network of HIV infected patients based on their social and treatment information. The network is then combined with a genetic network, to infer a hypothetical infection transmission network. We apply this method to a cohort study of HIV-1 infected patients in central Italy and find that patients who are highly connected in the network have longer untreated infection periods. We also find that the network structures for homosexual males and heterosexual populations are heterogeneous, consisting of a majority of 'peripheral nodes' that have only a few sexual interactions and a minority of 'hub nodes' that have many sexual interactions. Inferring HIV-1 transmission networks using this novel combined approach reveals remarkable correlations between high out-degree individuals and longer untreated infection periods. These findings signify the importance of early treatment and support the potential benefit of wide population screening, management of early diagnoses and anticipated antiretroviral treatment to prevent viral transmission and spread. The approach presented here for reconstructing HIV-1 transmission networks

  20. Early dynamics of transversally thermalized matter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bialas, A.; Chojnacki, M.; Florkowski, W.

    2008-10-01

    We argue that the idea that the parton system created in relativistic heavy-ion collisions is formed in a state with transverse momenta close to thermodynamic equilibrium and its subsequent dynamics at early times is dominated by pure transverse hydrodynamics of the perfect fluid is compatible with the data collected at RHIC. This scenario of early parton dynamics may help to solve the problem of early equilibration. Quark Matter 2008, Jaipur, India, February 2008.

  1. Transmission dynamics of cholera: Mathematical modeling and control strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Gui-Quan; Xie, Jun-Hui; Huang, Sheng-He; Jin, Zhen; Li, Ming-Tao; Liu, Liqun

    2017-04-01

    Cholera, as an endemic disease around the world, has generated great threat to human society and caused enormous morbidity and mortality with weak surveillance system. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to describe the transmission of Cholera. Moreover, basic reproduction number and the global dynamics of the dynamical model are obtained. Then we apply our model to characterize the transmission process of Cholera in China. It was found that, in order to avoid its outbreak in China, it may be better to increase immunization coverage rate and make effort to improve environmental management especially for drinking water. Our results may provide some new insights for elimination of Cholera.

  2. Global Transmission Dynamics of Measles in the Measles Elimination Era.

    PubMed

    Furuse, Yuki; Oshitani, Hitoshi

    2017-04-16

    Although there have been many epidemiological reports of the inter-country transmission of measles, systematic analysis of the global transmission dynamics of the measles virus (MV) is limited. In this study, we applied phylogeographic analysis to characterize the global transmission dynamics of the MV using large-scale genetic sequence data (obtained for 7456 sequences) from 115 countries between 1954 and 2015. These analyses reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics of global transmission of the virus, especially in Australia, China, India, Japan, the UK, and the USA in the period since 1990. The transmission is frequently observed, not only within the same region but also among distant and frequently visited areas. Frequencies of export from measles-endemic countries, such as China, India, and Japan are high but decreasing, while the frequencies from countries where measles is no longer endemic, such as Australia, the UK, and the USA, are low but slightly increasing. The world is heading toward measles eradication, but the disease is still transmitted regionally and globally. Our analysis reveals that countries wherein measles is endemic and those having eliminated the disease (apart from occasional outbreaks) both remain a source of global transmission in this measles elimination era. It is therefore crucial to maintain vigilance in efforts to monitor and eradicate measles globally.

  3. Presynaptic strontium dynamics and synaptic transmission.

    PubMed Central

    Xu-Friedman, M A; Regehr, W G

    1999-01-01

    Strontium can replace calcium in triggering neurotransmitter release, although peak release is reduced and the duration of release is prolonged. Strontium has therefore become useful in probing release, but its mechanism of action is not well understood. Here we study the action of strontium at the granule cell to Purkinje cell synapse in mouse cerebellar slices. Presynaptic residual strontium levels were monitored with fluorescent indicators, which all responded to strontium (fura-2, calcium orange, fura-2FF, magnesium green, and mag-fura-5). When calcium was replaced by equimolar concentrations of strontium in the external bath, strontium and calcium both entered presynaptic terminals. Contaminating calcium was eliminated by including EGTA in the extracellular bath, or by loading parallel fibers with EGTA, enabling the actions of strontium to be studied in isolation. After a single stimulus, strontium reached higher peak free levels than did calcium (approximately 1.7 times greater), and decayed more slowly (half-decay time 189 ms for strontium and 32 ms for calcium). These differences in calcium and strontium dynamics are likely a consequence of greater strontium permeability through calcium channels, lower affinity of the endogenous buffer for strontium, and less efficient extrusion of strontium. Measurements of presynaptic divalent levels help to explain properties of release evoked by strontium. Parallel fiber synaptic currents triggered by strontium are smaller in amplitude and longer in duration than those triggered by calcium. In both calcium and strontium, release consists of two components, one more steeply dependent on divalent levels than the other. Strontium drives both components less effectively than does calcium, suggesting that the affinities of the sensors involved in both phases of release are lower for strontium than for calcium. Thus, the larger and slower strontium transients account for the prominent slow component of release triggered by

  4. Uncovering the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax using population genetics

    PubMed Central

    Barry, Alyssa E.; Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Barnadas, Celine; Mueller, Ivo

    2015-01-01

    Population genetic analysis of malaria parasites has the power to reveal key insights into malaria epidemiology and transmission dynamics with the potential to deliver tools to support control and elimination efforts. Analyses of parasite genetic diversity have suggested that Plasmodium vivax populations are more genetically diverse and less structured than those of Plasmodium falciparum indicating that P. vivax may be a more ancient parasite of humans and/or less susceptible to population bottlenecks, as well as more efficient at disseminating its genes. These population genetic insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics provide an explanation for its relative resilience to control efforts. Here, we describe current knowledge on P. vivax population genetic structure, its relevance to understanding transmission patterns and relapse and how this information can inform malaria control and elimination programmes. PMID:25891915

  5. Dynamics of tuberculosis transmission with exogenous reinfections and endogenous reactivation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khajanchi, Subhas; Das, Dhiraj Kumar; Kar, Tapan Kumar

    2018-05-01

    We propose and analyze a mathematical model for tuberculosis (TB) transmission to study the role of exogenous reinfection and endogenous reactivation. The model exhibits two equilibria: a disease free and an endemic equilibria. We observe that the TB model exhibits transcritical bifurcation when basic reproduction number R0 = 1. Our results demonstrate that the disease transmission rate β and exogenous reinfection rate α plays an important role to change the qualitative dynamics of TB. The disease transmission rate β give rises to the possibility of backward bifurcation for R0 < 1, and hence the existence of multiple endemic equilibria one of which is stable and another one is unstable. Our analysis suggests that R0 < 1 may not be sufficient to completely eliminate the disease. We also investigate that our TB transmission model undergoes Hopf-bifurcation with respect to the contact rate β and the exogenous reinfection rate α. We conducted some numerical simulations to support our analytical findings.

  6. Multi-body Dynamic Contact Analysis Tool for Transmission Design

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-04-01

    frequencies were computed in COSMIC NASTRAN, and were validated against the published experimental modal analysis [17]. • Using assumed time domain... modal superposition. • Results from the structural analysis (mode shapes or forced response) were converted into IDEAS universal format (dataset 55...ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY Multi-body Dynamic Contact Analysis Tool for Transmission Design SBIR Phase II Final Report by

  7. Counseling on Early Childhood Caries transmission by dentists.

    PubMed

    Milgrom, Peter; Huebner, Colleen E; Mancl, Lloyd; Garson, Gayle; Grembowski, David

    2013-01-01

    High levels of Streptococcus mutans on teeth of young children are predictive of Early Childhood Caries (ECC). Transmission from mother-to-child is common and studies have demonstrated treatment of the mother results in less ECC. The objective of this study was to determine how dentists have adopted the practice of counseling about ECC. In 2006 as part of a larger study on dental care for pregnant women, we surveyed 829 general dentists in Oregon. The questionnaire contained questions to capture the extent to which general dentists have adopted counseling pregnant women about ECC transmission, to describe personal and practice characteristics, and examine how dentists' views on the ease of adopting of new procedures related to ECC counseling. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify separate and additive effects of demographic and practice characteristics, attitudes, and beliefs. The adjusted odds of a dentist who strongly believed in the link between mothers and babies and provided ECC counseling were 1.60 (95% CI 1.3-2.0, P<0.01). The odds of a dentist who reported discussing ECC with staff members and provided counseling were 2.7 (95% CI 1.7-4.3, P<0.01). Male dentists were less likely to counsel patients than female dentists (Adjusted OR=0.5, 95% CI 0.3-1.0, p<0.05). The strongest predictors of counseling patients about ECC were dentists' belief in the evidence of caries transmission and dentists' discussion of ECC during staff meetings. © 2012 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  8. Less counseling on Early Childhood Caries transmission by dentists

    PubMed Central

    Milgrom, Peter; Huebner, Colleen E.; Mancl, Lloyd; Garson, Gayle; Grembowski, David

    2013-01-01

    Objective High levels of Streptococcus mutans on teeth of young children are predictive of Early Childhood Caries (ECC). Transmission from mother-to-child is common and studies have demonstrated treatment of the mother results in less ECC. The objective of this study was to determine how dentists have adopted the practice of counseling about ECC. Methods In 2006 as part of a larger study on dental care for pregnant women, we surveyed 829 general dentists in Oregon. The questionnaire contained questions to capture the extent to which general dentists have adopted counseling pregnant women about ECC transmission, to describe personal and practice characteristics, and examine how dentists' views on the ease of adopting of new procedures related to ECC counseling. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify separate and additive effects of demographic and practice characteristics, attitudes, and beliefs. Results The adjusted odds of a dentist who strongly believed in the link between mothers and babies and provided ECC counseling were 1.60 (95% CI 1.3-2.0, P<0.01). The odds of a dentist who reported discussing ECC with staff members and provided counseling were 2.7 (95% CI 1.7-4.3, P<0.01). Male dentists were less likely to counsel patients than female dentists (Adjusted OR = 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-1.0, p<0.05). Conclusions The strongest predictors of counseling patients about ECC were dentists' belief in the evidence of caries transmission and dentists' discussion of ECC during staff meetings. PMID:22970775

  9. Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

    PubMed

    Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

    2013-02-01

    Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  10. Transport composite fuselage technology: Impact dynamics and acoustic transmission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jackson, A. C.; Balena, F. J.; Labarge, W. L.; Pei, G.; Pitman, W. A.; Wittlin, G.

    1986-01-01

    A program was performed to develop and demonstrate the impact dynamics and acoustic transmission technology for a composite fuselage which meets the design requirements of a 1990 large transport aircraft without substantial weight and cost penalties. The program developed the analytical methodology for the prediction of acoustic transmission behavior of advanced composite stiffened shell structures. The methodology predicted that the interior noise level in a composite fuselage due to turbulent boundary layer will be less than in a comparable aluminum fuselage. The verification of these analyses will be performed by NASA Langley Research Center using a composite fuselage shell fabricated by filament winding. The program also developed analytical methodology for the prediction of the impact dynamics behavior of lower fuselage structure constructed with composite materials. Development tests were performed to demonstrate that the composite structure designed to the same operating load requirement can have at least the same energy absorption capability as aluminum structure.

  11. A review of malaria transmission dynamics in forest ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Malaria continues to be a major health problem in more than 100 endemic countries located primarily in tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Malaria transmission is a dynamic process and involves many interlinked factors, from uncontrollable natural environmental conditions to man-made disturbances to nature. Almost half of the population at risk of malaria lives in forest areas. Forests are hot beds of malaria transmission as they provide conditions such as vegetation cover, temperature, rainfall and humidity conditions that are conducive to distribution and survival of malaria vectors. Forests often lack infrastructure and harbor tribes with distinct genetic traits, socio-cultural beliefs and practices that greatly influence malaria transmission dynamics. Here we summarize the various topographical, entomological, parasitological, human ecological and socio-economic factors, which are crucial and shape malaria transmission in forested areas. An in-depth understanding and synthesis of the intricate relationship of these parameters in achieving better malaria control in various types of forest ecosystems is emphasized. PMID:24912923

  12. X-ray transmission movies of spontaneous dynamic events

    SciTech Connect

    Smilowitz, L.; Henson, B. F.; Holmes, M.

    2014-11-15

    We describe a new x-ray radiographic imaging system which allows for continuous x-ray transmission imaging of spontaneous dynamic events. We demonstrate this method on thermal explosions in three plastic bonded formulations of the energetic material octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine. We describe the x-ray imaging system and triggering developed to enable the continuous imaging of a thermal explosion.

  13. Parasite transmission among relatives halts Red Queen dynamics.

    PubMed

    Greenspoon, Philip B; Mideo, Nicole

    2017-03-01

    The theory that coevolving hosts and parasites create a fluctuating selective environment for one another (i.e., produce Red Queen dynamics) has deep roots in evolutionary biology; yet empirical evidence for Red Queen dynamics remains scarce. Fluctuating coevolutionary dynamics underpin the Red Queen hypothesis for the evolution of sex, as well as hypotheses explaining the persistence of genetic variation under sexual selection, local parasite adaptation, the evolution of mutation rate, and the evolution of nonrandom mating. Coevolutionary models that exhibit Red Queen dynamics typically assume that hosts and parasites encounter one another randomly. However, if related individuals aggregate into family groups or are clustered spatially, related hosts will be more likely to encounter parasites transmitted by genetically similar individuals. Using a model that incorporates familial parasite transmission, we show that a slight degree of familial parasite transmission is sufficient to halt coevolutionary fluctuations. Our results predict that evidence for Red Queen dynamics, and its evolutionary consequences, are most likely to be found in biological systems in which hosts and parasites mix mainly at random, and are less likely to be found in systems with familial aggregation. This presents a challenge to the Red Queen hypothesis and other hypotheses that depend on coevolutionary cycling. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  14. How robust are the natural history parameters used in chlamydia transmission dynamic models? A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Davies, Bethan; Anderson, Sarah-Jane; Turner, Katy M E; Ward, Helen

    2014-01-30

    Transmission dynamic models linked to economic analyses often form part of the decision making process when introducing new chlamydia screening interventions. Outputs from these transmission dynamic models can vary depending on the values of the parameters used to describe the infection. Therefore these values can have an important influence on policy and resource allocation. The risk of progression from infection to pelvic inflammatory disease has been extensively studied but the parameters which govern the transmission dynamics are frequently neglected. We conducted a systematic review of transmission dynamic models linked to economic analyses of chlamydia screening interventions to critically assess the source and variability of the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic, the duration of infection and the transmission probability. We identified nine relevant studies in Pubmed, Embase and the Cochrane database. We found that there is a wide variation in their natural history parameters, including an absolute difference in the proportion of asymptomatic infections of 25% in women and 75% in men, a six-fold difference in the duration of asymptomatic infection and a four-fold difference in the per act transmission probability. We consider that much of this variation can be explained by a lack of consensus in the literature. We found that a significant proportion of parameter values were referenced back to the early chlamydia literature, before the introduction of nucleic acid modes of diagnosis and the widespread testing of asymptomatic individuals. In conclusion, authors should use high quality contemporary evidence to inform their parameter values, clearly document their assumptions and make appropriate use of sensitivity analysis. This will help to make models more transparent and increase their utility to policy makers.

  15. Highly dynamic animal contact network and implications on disease transmission

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Shi; White, Brad J.; Sanderson, Michael W.; Amrine, David E.; Ilany, Amiyaal; Lanzas, Cristina

    2014-01-01

    Contact patterns among hosts are considered as one of the most critical factors contributing to unequal pathogen transmission. Consequently, networks have been widely applied in infectious disease modeling. However most studies assume static network structure due to lack of accurate observation and appropriate analytic tools. In this study we used high temporal and spatial resolution animal position data to construct a high-resolution contact network relevant to infectious disease transmission. The animal contact network aggregated at hourly level was highly variable and dynamic within and between days, for both network structure (network degree distribution) and individual rank of degree distribution in the network (degree order). We integrated network degree distribution and degree order heterogeneities with a commonly used contact-based, directly transmitted disease model to quantify the effect of these two sources of heterogeneity on the infectious disease dynamics. Four conditions were simulated based on the combination of these two heterogeneities. Simulation results indicated that disease dynamics and individual contribution to new infections varied substantially among these four conditions under both parameter settings. Changes in the contact network had a greater effect on disease dynamics for pathogens with smaller basic reproduction number (i.e. R0 < 2). PMID:24667241

  16. Virus dynamics in the presence of synaptic transmission

    PubMed Central

    Komarova, Natalia L.; Wodarz, Dominik

    2014-01-01

    Traditionally, virus dynamics models consider populations of infected and target cells, and a population of free virus that can infect susceptible cells. In recent years, however, it has become clear that direct cell-to-cell transmission can also play an important role for the in vivo spread of viruses, especially retroviruses such as human T lymphotropic virus-1 (HTLV-1) and Human immundeficeincy virus (HIV). Such cell-to-cell transmission is thought to occur through the formation of virological synapses that are formed between an infected source cell and a susceptible target cell. Here we formulate and analyze a class of virus dynamics models that include such cell-cell synaptic transmission. We explore different ”strategies” of the virus defined by the number of viruses passed per synapse, and determine how the choice of strategy influences the basic reproductive ratio, R0, of the virus and thus its ability to establish a persistent infection. We show that depending on specific assumptions about the viral kinetics, strategies with low or intermediate numbers of viruses transferred may correspond to the highest values of R0. We also explore the evolutionary competition of viruses of different strains, which differ by their synaptic strategy, and show that viruses characterized by synaptic strategies with the highest R0 win the evolutionary competition and exclude other, inferior, strains. PMID:23357287

  17. Dynamics of Multistage Gear Transmission with Effects of Gearbox Vibrations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choy, F. K.; Tu, Y. K.; Zakrajsek, J. J.; Townsend, Dennis P.

    1990-01-01

    A comprehensive approach is presented in analyzing the dynamic behavior of multistage gear transmission systems with the effects of gearbox induced vibrations and mass imbalances of the rotor. The modal method, with undamped frequencies and planar mode shapes, is used to reduce the degrees of freedom of the gear system for time-transient dynamic analysis. Both the lateral and torsional vibration modes of each rotor-bearing-gear stage as well as the interstage vibrational characteristics are coupled together through localized gear mesh tooth interactions. In addition, gearbox vibrations are also coupled to the rotor-bearing-gear system dynamics through bearing support forces between the rotor and the gearbox. Transient and steady state dynamics of lateral and torsional vibrations of the geared system are examined in both time and frequency domains to develop interpretations of the overall modal dynamic characteristics under various operating conditions. A typical three-stage geared system is used as an example. Effects of mass imbalance and gearbox vibrations on the system dynamic behavior are presented in terms of modal excitation functions for both lateral and torsional vibrations. Operational characteristics and conclusions are drawn from the results presented.

  18. Transmission dynamics of two dengue serotypes with vaccination scenarios.

    PubMed

    González Morales, N L; Núñez-López, M; Ramos-Castañeda, J; Velasco-Hernández, J X

    2017-05-01

    In this work we present a mathematical model that incorporates two Dengue serotypes. The model has been constructed to study both the epidemiological trends of the disease and conditions that allow coexistence in competing strains under vaccination. We consider two viral strains and temporary cross-immunity with one vector mosquito population. Results suggest that vaccination scenarios will not only reduce disease incidence but will also modify the transmission dynamics. Indeed, vaccination and cross immunity period are seen to decrease the frequency and magnitude of outbreaks but in a differentiated manner with specific effects depending upon the interaction vaccine and strain type. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Inferring HIV-1 Transmission Dynamics in Germany From Recently Transmitted Viruses.

    PubMed

    Pouran Yousef, Kaveh; Meixenberger, Karolin; Smith, Maureen R; Somogyi, Sybille; Gromöller, Silvana; Schmidt, Daniel; Gunsenheimer-Bartmeyer, Barbara; Hamouda, Osamah; Kücherer, Claudia; von Kleist, Max

    2016-11-01

    Although HIV continues to spread globally, novel intervention strategies such as treatment as prevention (TasP) may bring the epidemic to a halt. However, their effective implementation requires a profound understanding of the underlying transmission dynamics. We analyzed parameters of the German HIV epidemic based on phylogenetic clustering of viral sequences from recently infected seroconverters with known infection dates. Viral baseline and follow-up pol sequences (n = 1943) from 1159 drug-naïve individuals were selected from a nationwide long-term observational study initiated in 1997. Putative transmission clusters were computed based on a maximum likelihood phylogeny. Using individual follow-up sequences, we optimized our clustering threshold to maximize the likelihood of co-clustering individuals connected by direct transmission. The sizes of putative transmission clusters scaled inversely with their abundance and their distribution exhibited a heavy tail. Clusters based on the optimal clustering threshold were significantly more likely to contain members of the same or bordering German federal states. Interinfection times between co-clustered individuals were significantly shorter (26 weeks; interquartile range: 13-83) than in a null model. Viral intraindividual evolution may be used to select criteria that maximize co-clustering of transmission pairs in the absence of strong adaptive selection pressure. Interinfection times of co-clustered individuals may then be an indicator of the typical time to onward transmission. Our analysis suggests that onward transmission may have occurred early after infection, when individuals are typically unaware of their serological status. The latter argues that TasP should be combined with HIV testing campaigns to reduce the possibility of transmission before TasP initiation.

  20. Transmission Dynamics of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Pigs

    PubMed Central

    Crombé, Florence; Argudín, M. Angeles; Vanderhaeghen, Wannes; Hermans, Katleen; Haesebrouck, Freddy; Butaye, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    From the mid-2000s on, numerous studies have shown that methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), renowned as human pathogen, has a reservoir in pigs and other livestock. In Europe and North America, clonal complex (CC) 398 appears to be the predominant lineage involved. Especially worrisome is its capacity to contaminate humans in close contact with affected animals. Indeed, the typical multi-resistant phenotype of MRSA CC398 and its observed ability of easily acquiring genetic material suggests that MRSA CC398 strains with an increased virulence potential may emerge, for which few therapeutic options would remain. This questions the need to implement interventions to control the presence and spread of MRSA CC398 among pigs. MRSA CC398 shows a high but not fully understood transmission potential in the pig population and is able to persist within that population. Although direct contact is probably the main route for MRSA transmission between pigs, also environmental contamination, the presence of other livestock, the herd size, and farm management are factors that may be involved in the dissemination of MRSA CC398. The current review aims at summarizing the research that has so far been done on the transmission dynamics and risk factors for introduction and persistence of MRSA CC398 in farms. PMID:23518663

  1. Plasmodium vivax population structure and transmission dynamics in Sabah Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W; Anstey, Nicholas M; Price, Ric N; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A (S) >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A (S)  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A (S) = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for

  2. Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

    PubMed Central

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A S >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A S  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A S = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria

  3. Measuring the transmission dynamics of a sexually transmitted disease

    PubMed Central

    Ryder, Jonathan J.; Webberley, K. Mary; Boots, Michael; Knell, Robert J.

    2005-01-01

    Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) occur throughout the animal kingdom and are generally thought to affect host population dynamics and evolution very differently from other directly transmitted infectious diseases. In particular, STDs are not thought to have threshold densities for persistence or to be able to regulate host population density independently; they may also have the potential to cause host extinction. However, these expectations follow from a theory that assumes that the rate of STD spread depends on the proportion (rather than the density) of individuals infected in a population. We show here that this key assumption (“frequency dependence”), which has not previously been tested in an animal STD system, is invalid in a simple and general experimental model. Transmission of an STD in the two-spot ladybird depended more on the density of infected individuals in the study population than on their frequency. We argue that, in this system, and in many other animal STDs in which population density affects sexual contact rate, population dynamics may exhibit some characteristics that are normally reserved for diseases with density-dependent transmission. PMID:16204382

  4. The transmission dynamics and diversity of human metapneumovirus in Peru.

    PubMed

    Pollett, Simon; Trovão, Nidia S; Tan, Yi; Eden, John-Sebastian; Halpin, Rebecca A; Bera, Jayati; Das, Suman R; Wentworth, David; Ocaña, Victor; Mendocilla, Silvia M; Álvarez, Carlos; Calisto, Maria E; Garcia, Josefina; Halsey, Eric; Ampuero, Julia S; Nelson, Martha I; Leguia, Mariana

    2017-12-29

    The transmission dynamics of human metapneumovirus (HMPV) in tropical countries remain unclear. Further understanding of the genetic diversity of the virus could aid in HMPV vaccine design and improve our understanding of respiratory virus transmission dynamics in low- and middle-income countries. We examined the evolution of HMPV in Peru through phylogenetic analysis of 61 full genome HMPV sequences collected in three ecologically diverse regions of Peru (Lima, Piura, and Iquitos) during 2008-2012, comprising the largest data set of HMPV whole genomes sequenced from any tropical country to date. We revealed extensive genetic diversity generated by frequent viral introductions, with little evidence of local persistence. While considerable viral traffic between non-Peruvian countries and Peru was observed, HMPV epidemics in Peruvian locales were more frequently epidemiologically linked with other sites within Peru. We showed that Iquitos experienced greater HMPV traffic than the similar sized city of Piura by both Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods. There is extensive HMPV genetic diversity even within smaller and relatively less connected cities of Peru and this virus is spatially fluid. Greater diversity of HMPV in Iquitos compared to Piura may relate to higher volumes of human movement, including air traffic to this location. © 2017 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Evolution and Use of Dynamic Transmission Models for Measles and Rubella Risk and Policy Analysis.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Kimberly M

    2016-07-01

    The devastation caused by periodic measles outbreaks motivated efforts over more than a century to mathematically model measles disease and transmission. Following the identification of rubella, which similarly presents with fever and rash and causes congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in infants born to women first infected with rubella early in pregnancy, modelers also began to characterize rubella disease and transmission. Despite the relatively large literature, no comprehensive review to date provides an overview of dynamic transmission models for measles and rubella developed to support risk and policy analysis. This systematic review of the literature identifies quantitative measles and/or rubella dynamic transmission models and characterizes key insights relevant for prospective modeling efforts. Overall, measles and rubella represent some of the relatively simplest viruses to model due to their ability to impact only humans and the apparent life-long immunity that follows survival of infection and/or protection by vaccination, although complexities arise due to maternal antibodies and heterogeneity in mixing and some models considered potential waning immunity and reinfection. This review finds significant underreporting of measles and rubella infections and widespread recognition of the importance of achieving and maintaining high population immunity to stop and prevent measles and rubella transmission. The significantly lower transmissibility of rubella compared to measles implies that all countries could eliminate rubella and CRS by using combination of measles- and rubella-containing vaccines (MRCVs) as they strive to meet regional measles elimination goals, which leads to the recommendation of changing the formulation of national measles-containing vaccines from measles only to MRCV as the standard of care. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Dynamics Modelling of Transmission Gear Rattle and Analysis on Influence Factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Xiaona; Zhang, Honghui

    2018-02-01

    Based on the vibration dynamics modeling for the single stage gear of transmission system, this paper is to understand the mechanism of transmission rattle. The dynamic model response using MATLAB and Runge-Kutta algorithm is analyzed, and the ways for reducing the rattle noise of the automotive transmission is summarized.

  7. Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in Rural Africa using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems, as outlined by the Roll Back Malaria Initiative. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.

  8. Characterization of Founder Viruses in Very Early SIV Rectal Transmission

    PubMed Central

    Yuan, Zhe; Ma, Fangrui; Demers, Andrew J.; Wang, Dong; Xu, Jianqing; Lewis, Mark G.; Li, Qingsheng

    2016-01-01

    A better understanding of HIV-1 transmission is critical for developing preventative strategies. To that end, we analyzed 524 full-length env sequences of SIVmac251 at 6 and 10 days post intrarectal infection of rhesus macaques. There was no tissue compartmentalization of founder viruses across plasma, rectal and distal lymphatic tissues for most animals; however one animal has evidence of virus tissue compartmentalization. Despite identical viral inoculums, founder viruses were animal-specific, primarily derived from rare variants in the inoculum, and have a founder virus signature that can distinguish dominant founder variants from minor founder or untransmitted variants in the inoculum. Importantly, the sequences of post-transmission defective viruses were phylogenetically associated with competent viral variants in the inoculum and were mainly converted from competent viral variants by frameshift rather than APOBEC mediated mutations, suggesting the converting the transmitted viruses into defective viruses through frameshift mutation is an important component of rectal transmission bottleneck. PMID:28027479

  9. Dynamics of early planetary gear trains

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    August, R.; Kasuba, R.; Frater, J. L.; Pintz, A.

    1984-01-01

    A method to analyze the static and dynamic loads in a planetary gear train was developed. A variable-variable mesh stiffness (VVMS) model was used to simulate the external and internal spur gear mesh behavior, and an equivalent conventional gear train concept was adapted for the dynamic studies. The analysis can be applied either involute or noninvolute spur gearing. By utilizing the equivalent gear train concept, the developed method may be extended for use for all types of epicyclic gearing. The method is incorporated into a computer program so that the static and dynamic behavior of individual components can be examined. Items considered in the analysis are: (1) static and dynamic load sharing among the planets; (2) floating or fixed Sun gear; (3) actual tooth geometry, including errors and modifications; (4) positioning errors of the planet gears; (5) torque variations due to noninvolute gear action. A mathematical model comprised of power source, load, and planetary transmission is used to determine the instantaneous loads to which the components are subjected. It considers fluctuating output torque, elastic behavior in the system, and loss of contact between gear teeth. The dynamic model has nine degrees of freedom resulting in a set of simultaneous second order differential equations with time varying coefficients, which are solved numerically. The computer program was used to determine the effect of manufacturing errors, damping and component stiffness, and transmitted load on dynamic behavior. It is indicated that this methodology offers the designer/analyst a comprehensive tool with which planetary drives may be quickly and effectively evaluated.

  10. Seasonality Impact on the Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The statistical data of monthly pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) incidence cases from January 2004 to December 2012 show the seasonality fluctuations in Shaanxi of China. A seasonality TB epidemic model with periodic varying contact rate, reactivation rate, and disease-induced death rate is proposed to explore the impact of seasonality on the transmission dynamics of TB. Simulations show that the basic reproduction number of time-averaged autonomous systems may underestimate or overestimate infection risks in some cases, which may be up to the value of period. The basic reproduction number of the seasonality model is appropriately given, which determines the extinction and uniform persistence of TB disease. If it is less than one, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if it is greater than one, the system at least has a positive periodic solution and the disease will persist. Moreover, numerical simulations demonstrate these theorem results. PMID:27042199

  11. MRI dynamic range and its compatibility with signal transmission media

    PubMed Central

    Gabr, Refaat E.; Schär, Michael; Edelstein, Arthur D.; Kraitchman, Dara L.; Bottomley, Paul A.; Edelstein, William A.

    2010-01-01

    As the number of MRI phased array coil elements grows, interactions among cables connecting them to the system receiver become increasingly problematic. Fiber optic or wireless links would reduce electromagnetic interference, but their dynamic range (DR) is generally less than that of coaxial cables. Raw MRI signals, however, have a large DR because of the high signal amplitude near the center of k-space. Here, we study DR in MRI in order to determine the compatibility of MRI multicoil imaging with non-coaxial cable signal transmission. Since raw signal data are routinely discarded, we have developed an improved method for estimating the DR of MRI signals from conventional magnitude images. Our results indicate that the DR of typical surface coil signals at 3 T for human subjects is less than 88 dB, even for three-dimensional acquisition protocols. Cardiac and spine coil arrays had a maximum DR of less than 75 dB and head coil arrays less than 88 dB. The DR derived from magnitude images is in good agreement with that measured from raw data. The results suggest that current analog fiber optic links, with a spurious-free DR of 60–70 dB at 500 kHz bandwidth, are not by themselves adequate for transmitting MRI data from volume or array coils with DR ~90 dB. However, combining analog links with signal compression might make non-coaxial cable signal transmission viable. PMID:19251444

  12. MRI dynamic range and its compatibility with signal transmission media.

    PubMed

    Gabr, Refaat E; Schär, Michael; Edelstein, Arthur D; Kraitchman, Dara L; Bottomley, Paul A; Edelstein, William A

    2009-06-01

    As the number of MRI phased array coil elements grows, interactions among cables connecting them to the system receiver become increasingly problematic. Fiber optic or wireless links would reduce electromagnetic interference, but their dynamic range (DR) is generally less than that of coaxial cables. Raw MRI signals, however, have a large DR because of the high signal amplitude near the center of k-space. Here, we study DR in MRI in order to determine the compatibility of MRI multicoil imaging with non-coaxial cable signal transmission. Since raw signal data are routinely discarded, we have developed an improved method for estimating the DR of MRI signals from conventional magnitude images. Our results indicate that the DR of typical surface coil signals at 3T for human subjects is less than 88 dB, even for three-dimensional acquisition protocols. Cardiac and spine coil arrays had a maximum DR of less than 75 dB and head coil arrays less than 88 dB. The DR derived from magnitude images is in good agreement with that measured from raw data. The results suggest that current analog fiber optic links, with a spurious-free DR of 60-70 dB at 500 kHz bandwidth, are not by themselves adequate for transmitting MRI data from volume or array coils with DR approximately 90 dB. However, combining analog links with signal compression might make non-coaxial cable signal transmission viable.

  13. Transmission dynamics and changing epidemiology of West Nile virus.

    PubMed

    Blitvich, Bradley J

    2008-06-01

    West Nile virus (WNV) is a flavivirus that is maintained in a bird-mosquito transmission cycle. Humans, horses and other non-avian vertebrates are usually incidental hosts, but evidence is accumulating that this might not always be the case. Historically, WNV has been associated with asymptomatic infections and sporadic disease outbreaks in humans and horses in Africa, Europe, Asia and Australia. However, since 1994, the virus has caused frequent outbreaks of severe neuroinvasive disease in humans and horses in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. In 1999, WNV underwent a dramatic expansion of its geographic range, and was reported for the first time in the Western Hemisphere during an outbreak of human and equine encephalitis in New York City. The outbreak was accompanied by extensive and unprecedented avian mortality. Since then, WNV has dispersed across the Western Hemisphere and is now found throughout the USA, Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean, and parts of Central and South America. WNV has been responsible for >27,000 human cases, >25,000 equine cases and hundreds of thousands of avian deaths in the USA but, surprisingly, there have been only sparse reports of WNV disease in vertebrates in the Caribbean and Latin America. This review summarizes our current understanding of WNV with particular emphasis on its transmission dynamics and changing epidemiology.

  14. Early dynamics of the semantic priming shift

    PubMed Central

    Lavigne, Frédéric; Chanquoy, Lucile; Dumercy, Laurent; Vitu, Françoise

    2013-01-01

    Semantic processing of sequences of words requires the cognitive system to keep several word meanings simultaneously activated in working memory with limited capacity. The real- time updating of the sequence of word meanings relies on dynamic changes in the associates to the words that are activated. Protocols involving two sequential primes report a semantic priming shift from larger priming of associates to the first prime to larger priming of associates to the second prime, in a range of long SOAs (stimulus-onset asynchronies) between the second prime and the target. However, the possibility for an early semantic priming shift is still to be tested, and its dynamics as a function of association strength remain unknown. Three multiple priming experiments are proposed that cross-manipulate association strength between each of two successive primes and a target, for different values of short SOAs and prime durations. Results show an early priming shift ranging from priming of associates to the first prime only to priming of strong associates to the first prime and all of the associates to the second prime. We investigated the neural basis of the early priming shift by using a network model of spike frequency adaptive cortical neurons (e.g., Deco & Rolls, 2005), able to code different association strengths between the primes and the target. The cortical network model provides a description of the early dynamics of the priming shift in terms of pro-active and retro-active interferences within populations of excitatory neurons regulated by fast and unselective inhibitory feedback. PMID:23717346

  15. Co-infections and transmission dynamics in a tick-borne bacterium community exposed to songbirds.

    PubMed

    Heylen, Dieter; Fonville, Manoj; van Leeuwen, Arieke Docters; Sprong, Hein

    2016-03-01

    We investigated the transmission dynamics of a community of tick-borne pathogenic bacteria in a common European songbird (Parus major). Tick-naïve birds were infested with three successive batches (spaced 5 days apart) of field-collected Ixodes ricinus nymphs, carrying the following tick-borne bacteria: Rickettsia helvetica (16.9%), Borrelia garinii (1.9%), Borrelia miyamotoi (1.6%), Anaplasma phagocytophilum (1.2%) and Candidatus Neoehrlichia mikurensis (0.4%). Fed ticks were screened for the pathogens after moulting to the next developmental phase. We found evidence for early transmission (within 2.75 days after exposure) of R. helvetica and B. garinii, and to a lesser extent of A. phagocytophilum based on the increased infection rates of ticks during the first infestation. The proportion of ticks infected with R. helvetica remained constant over the three infestations. In contrast, the infection rate of B. garinii in the ticks increased over the three infestations, indicating a more gradual development of host tissue infection. No interactions were found among the different bacterium species during transmission. Birds did not transmit or amplify the other bacterial species. We show that individual birds can transmit several pathogenic bacterium species at the same time using different mechanisms, and that the transmission facilitation by birds increases the frequency of co-infections in ticks. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. DNA methylation dynamics during early plant life.

    PubMed

    Bouyer, Daniel; Kramdi, Amira; Kassam, Mohamed; Heese, Maren; Schnittger, Arp; Roudier, François; Colot, Vincent

    2017-09-25

    Cytosine methylation is crucial for gene regulation and silencing of transposable elements in mammals and plants. While this epigenetic mark is extensively reprogrammed in the germline and early embryos of mammals, the extent to which DNA methylation is reset between generations in plants remains largely unknown. Using Arabidopsis as a model, we uncovered distinct DNA methylation dynamics over transposable element sequences during the early stages of plant development. Specifically, transposable elements and their relics show invariably high methylation at CG sites but increasing methylation at CHG and CHH sites. This non-CG methylation culminates in mature embryos, where it reaches saturation for a large fraction of methylated CHH sites, compared to the typical 10-20% methylation level observed in seedlings or adult plants. Moreover, the increase in CHH methylation during embryogenesis matches the hypomethylated state in the early endosperm. Finally, we show that interfering with the embryo-to-seedling transition results in the persistence of high CHH methylation levels after germination, specifically over sequences that are targeted by the RNA-directed DNA methylation (RdDM) machinery. Our findings indicate the absence of extensive resetting of DNA methylation patterns during early plant life and point instead to an important role of RdDM in reinforcing DNA methylation of transposable element sequences in every cell of the mature embryo. Furthermore, we provide evidence that this elevated RdDM activity is a specific property of embryogenesis.

  17. Experimental investigation of alternative transmission functions: Quantitative evidence for the importance of nonlinear transmission dynamics in host-parasite systems.

    PubMed

    Orlofske, Sarah A; Flaxman, Samuel M; Joseph, Maxwell B; Fenton, Andy; Melbourne, Brett A; Johnson, Pieter T J

    2018-05-01

    Understanding pathogen transmission is crucial for predicting and managing disease. Nonetheless, experimental comparisons of alternative functional forms of transmission remain rare, and those experiments that are conducted are often not designed to test the full range of possible forms. To differentiate among 10 candidate transmission functions, we used a novel experimental design in which we independently varied four factors-duration of exposure, numbers of parasites, numbers of hosts and parasite density-in laboratory infection experiments. We used interactions between amphibian hosts and trematode parasites as a model system and all candidate models incorporated parasite depletion. An additional manipulation involving anaesthesia addressed the effects of host behaviour on transmission form. Across all experiments, nonlinear transmission forms involving either a power law or a negative binomial function were the best-fitting models and consistently outperformed the linear density-dependent and density-independent functions. By testing previously published data for two other host-macroparasite systems, we also found support for the same nonlinear transmission forms. Although manipulations of parasite density are common in transmission studies, the comprehensive set of variables tested in our experiments revealed that variation in density alone was least likely to differentiate among competing transmission functions. Across host-pathogen systems, nonlinear functions may often more accurately represent transmission dynamics and thus provide more realistic predictions for infection. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

  18. Modeling the Dynamic Transmission of Dengue Fever: Investigating Disease Persistence

    PubMed Central

    Medeiros, Líliam César de Castro; Castilho, César Augusto Rodrigues; Braga, Cynthia; de Souza, Wayner Vieira; Regis, Leda; Monteiro, Antonio Miguel Vieira

    2011-01-01

    Background Dengue is a disease of great complexity, due to interactions between humans, mosquitoes and various virus serotypes as well as efficient vector survival strategies. Thus, understanding the factors influencing the persistence of the disease has been a challenge for scientists and policy makers. The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of various factors related to humans and vectors in the maintenance of viral transmission during extended periods. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a stochastic cellular automata model to simulate the spread of dengue fever in a dense community. Each cell can correspond to a built area, and human and mosquito populations are individually monitored during the simulations. Human mobility and renewal, as well as vector infestation, are taken into consideration. To investigate the factors influencing the maintenance of viral circulation, two sets of simulations were performed: (1st) varying human renewal rates and human population sizes and (2nd) varying the house index (fraction of infested buildings) and vector per human ratio. We found that viral transmission is inhibited with the combination of small human populations with low renewal rates. It is also shown that maintenance of viral circulation for extended periods is possible at low values of house index. Based on the results of the model and on a study conducted in the city of Recife, Brazil, which associates vector infestation with Aedes aegytpi egg counts, we question the current methodology used in calculating the house index, based on larval survey. Conclusions/Significance This study contributed to a better understanding of the dynamics of dengue subsistence. Using basic concepts of metapopulations, we concluded that low infestation rates in a few neighborhoods ensure the persistence of dengue in large cities and suggested that better strategies should be implemented to obtain measures of house index values, in order to improve the dengue

  19. Modeling the transmission dynamics and control of rabies in China.

    PubMed

    Ruan, Shigui

    2017-04-01

    Human rabies was first recorded in ancient China in about 556 BC and is still one of the major public-health problems in China. From 1950 to 2015, 130,494 human rabies cases were reported in Mainland China with an average of 1977 cases per year. It is estimated that 95% of these human rabies cases are due to dog bites. The purpose of this article is to provide a review about the models, results, and simulations that we have obtained recently on studying the transmission of rabies in China. We first construct a basic susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) type model for the spread of rabies virus among dogs and from dogs to humans and use the model to simulate the human rabies data in China from 1996 to 2010. Then we modify the basic model by including both domestic and stray dogs and apply the model to simulate the human rabies data from Guangdong Province, China. To study the seasonality of rabies, in Section 4 we further propose a SEIR model with periodic transmission rates and employ the model to simulate the monthly data of human rabies cases reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health from January 2004 to December 2010. To understand the spatial spread of rabies, in Section 5 we add diffusion to the dog population in the basic SEIR model to obtain a reaction-diffusion equation model and determine the minimum wave speed connecting the disease-free equilibrium to the endemic equilibrium. Finally, in order to investigate how the movement of dogs affects the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, in Section 6 we propose a multi-patch model to describe the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans and use the two-patch submodel to investigate the rabies virus clades lineages and to simulate the human rabies data from Guizhou and Guangxi, Hebei and Fujian, and Sichuan and Shaanxi, respectively. Some discussions are provided in Section 7. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Early dynamical evolution of substructured stellar clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorval, Julien; Boily, Christian

    2015-08-01

    It is now widely accepted that stellar clusters form with a high level of substructure (Kuhn et al. 2014, Bate 2009), inherited from the molecular cloud and the star formation process. Evidence from observations and simulations also indicate the stars in such young clusters form a subvirial system (Kirk et al. 2007, Maschberger et al. 2010). The subsequent dynamical evolution can cause important mass loss, ejecting a large part of the birth population in the field. It can also imprint the stellar population and still be inferred from observations of evolved clusters. Nbody simulations allow a better understanding of these early twists and turns, given realistic initial conditions. Nowadays, substructured, clumpy young clusters are usually obtained through pseudo-fractal growth (Goodwin et al. 2004) and velocity inheritance. Such models are visually realistics and are very useful, they are however somewhat artificial in their velocity distribution. I introduce a new way to create clumpy initial conditions through a "Hubble expansion" which naturally produces self consistent clumps, velocity-wise. A velocity distribution analysis shows the new method produces realistic models, consistent with the dynamical state of the newly created cores in hydrodynamic simulation of cluster formation (Klessen & Burkert 2000). I use these initial conditions to investigate the dynamical evolution of young subvirial clusters, up to 80000 stars. I find an overall soft evolution, with hierarchical merging leading to a high level of mass segregation. I investigate the influence of the mass function on the fate of the cluster, specifically on the amount of mass loss induced by the early violent relaxation. Using a new binary detection algorithm, I also find a strong processing of the native binary population.

  1. The Transmission Dynamics of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    May, R. M.; Anderson, R. M.

    1988-10-01

    The paper first reviews data on HIV infections and AIDS disease among homosexual men, heterosexuals, intravenous (IV) drug abusers and children born to infected mothers, in both developed and developing countries. We survey such information as is currently available about the distribution of incubation times that elapse between HIV infection and the appearance of AIDS, about the fraction of those infected with HIV who eventually go on to develop AIDS, about time-dependent patterns of infectiousness and about distributions of rates of acquiring new sexual or needle-sharing partners. With this information, models for the transmission dynamics of HIV are developed, beginning with deliberately oversimplified models and progressing - on the basis of the understanding thus gained - to more complex ones. Where possible, estimates of the model's parameters are derived from the epidemiological data, and predictions are compared with observed trends. We also combine these epidemiological models with demographic considerations to assess the effects that heterosexually-transmitted HIV/AIDS may eventually have on rates of population growth, on age profiles and on associated economic and social indicators, in African and other countries. The degree to which sexual or other habits must change to bring the `basic reproductive rate', R_0, of HIV infections below unity is discussed. We conclude by outlining some research needs, both in the refinement and development of models and in the collection of epidemiological data.

  2. Analyzing transmission dynamics of cholera with public health interventions.

    PubMed

    Posny, Drew; Wang, Jin; Mukandavire, Zindoga; Modnak, Chairat

    2015-06-01

    Cholera continues to be a serious public health concern in developing countries and the global increase in the number of reported outbreaks suggests that activities to control the diseases and surveillance programs to identify or predict the occurrence of the next outbreaks are not adequate. These outbreaks have increased in frequency, severity, duration and endemicity in recent years. Mathematical models for infectious diseases play a critical role in predicting and understanding disease mechanisms, and have long provided basic insights in the possible ways to control infectious diseases. In this paper, we present a new deterministic cholera epidemiological model with three types of control measures incorporated into a cholera epidemic setting: treatment, vaccination and sanitation. Essential dynamical properties of the model with constant intervention controls which include local and global stabilities for the equilibria are carefully analyzed. Further, using optimal control techniques, we perform a study to investigate cost-effective solutions for time-dependent public health interventions in order to curb disease transmission in epidemic settings. Our results show that the basic reproductive number (R0) remains the model's epidemic threshold despite the inclusion of a package of cholera interventions. For time-dependent controls, the results suggest that these interventions closely interplay with each other, and the costs of controls directly affect the length and strength of each control in an optimal strategy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Photocathode Optimization for a Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscope: Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Ellis, P; Flom, Z; Heinselman, K

    2011-08-04

    The Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscope (DTEM) team at Harvey Mudd College has been sponsored by LLNL to design and build a test setup for optimizing the performance of the DTEM's electron source. Unlike a traditional TEM, the DTEM achieves much faster exposure times by using photoemission from a photocathode to produce electrons for imaging. The DTEM team's work is motivated by the need to improve the coherence and current density of the electron cloud produced by the electron gun in order to increase the image resolution and contrast achievable by DTEM. The photoemission test setup is nearly complete and themore » team will soon complete baseline tests of electron gun performance. The photoemission laser and high voltage power supply have been repaired; the optics path for relaying the laser to the photocathode has been finalized, assembled, and aligned; the internal setup of the vacuum chamber has been finalized and mostly implemented; and system control, synchronization, and data acquisition has been implemented in LabVIEW. Immediate future work includes determining a consistent alignment procedure to place the laser waist on the photocathode, and taking baseline performance measurements of the tantalum photocathode. Future research will examine the performance of the electron gun as a function of the photoemission laser profile, the photocathode material, and the geometry and voltages of the accelerating and focusing components in the electron gun. This report presents the team's progress and outlines the work that remains.« less

  4. Effects of temperature on early-phase transmission of Yersina pestis by the flea, Xenopsylla cheopis.

    PubMed

    Schotthoefer, Anna M; Bearden, Scott W; Vetter, Sara M; Holmes, Jennifer; Montenieri, John A; Graham, Christine B; Woods, Michael E; Eisen, Rebecca J; Gage, Kenneth L

    2011-03-01

    Sharp declines in human and animal cases of plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis (Yersin), have been observed when outbreaks coincide with hot weather. Failure of biofilm production, or blockage, to occur in the flea, as temperatures reach 30 degrees C has been suggested as an explanation for these declines. Recent work demonstrating efficient flea transmission during the first few days after fleas have taken an infectious blood meal, in the absence of blockage (e.g., early-phase transmission), however, has called this hypothesis into question. To explore the potential effects of temperature on early-phase transmission, we infected colony-reared Xenopsylla cheopis (Rothchild) fleas with a wild-type strain of plague bacteria using an artificial feeding system, and held groups of fleas at 10, 23, 27, and 30 degrees C. Naive Swiss Webster mice were exposed to fleas from each of these temperatures on days 1-4 postinfection, and monitored for signs of infection for 21 d. Temperature did not significantly influence the rates of transmission observed for fleas held at 23, 27, and 30 degrees C. Estimated per flea transmission efficiencies for these higher temperatures ranged from 2.32 to 4.96% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96-8.74). In contrast, no transmission was observed in mice challenged by fleas held at 10 degrees C (per flea transmission efficiency estimates, 0-1.68%). These results suggest that declines in human and animal cases during hot weather are not related to changes in the abilities of X. cheopis fleas to transmit Y. pestis infections during the early-phase period. By contrast, transmission may be delayed or inhibited at low temperatures, indicating that epizootic spread of Y. pestis by X. cheopis via early-phase transmission is unlikely during colder periods of the year.

  5. Dynamic linear models using the Kalman filter for early detection and early warning of malaria outbreaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merkord, C. L.; Liu, Y.; DeVos, M.; Wimberly, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    Malaria early detection and early warning systems are important tools for public health decision makers in regions where malaria transmission is seasonal and varies from year to year with fluctuations in rainfall and temperature. Here we present a new data-driven dynamic linear model based on the Kalman filter with time-varying coefficients that are used to identify malaria outbreaks as they occur (early detection) and predict the location and timing of future outbreaks (early warning). We fit linear models of malaria incidence with trend and Fourier form seasonal components using three years of weekly malaria case data from 30 districts in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia. We identified past outbreaks by comparing the modeled prediction envelopes with observed case data. Preliminary results demonstrated the potential for improved accuracy and timeliness over commonly-used methods in which thresholds are based on simpler summary statistics of historical data. Other benefits of the dynamic linear modeling approach include robustness to missing data and the ability to fit models with relatively few years of training data. To predict future outbreaks, we started with the early detection model for each district and added a regression component based on satellite-derived environmental predictor variables including precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and land surface temperature (LST) and spectral indices from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We included lagged environmental predictors in the regression component of the model, with lags chosen based on cross-correlation of the one-step-ahead forecast errors from the first model. Our results suggest that predictions of future malaria outbreaks can be improved by incorporating lagged environmental predictors.

  6. A locomotive-track coupled vertical dynamics model with gear transmissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Zaigang; Zhai, Wanming; Wang, Kaiyun

    2017-02-01

    A gear transmission system is a key element in a locomotive for the transmission of traction or braking forces between the motor and the wheel-rail interface. Its dynamic performance has a direct effect on the operational reliability of the locomotive and its components. This paper proposes a comprehensive locomotive-track coupled vertical dynamics model, in which the locomotive is driven by axle-hung motors. In this coupled dynamics model, the dynamic interactions between the gear transmission system and the other components, e.g. motor and wheelset, are considered based on the detailed analysis of its structural properties and working mechanism. Thus, the mechanical transmission system for power delivery from the motor to the wheelset via gear transmission is coupled with a traditional locomotive-track dynamics system via the wheel-rail contact interface and the gear mesh interface. This developed dynamics model enables investigations of the dynamic performance of the entire dynamics system under the excitations from the wheel-rail contact interface and/or the gear mesh interface. Dynamic interactions are demonstrated by numerical simulations using this dynamics model. The results indicate that both of the excitations from the wheel-rail contact interface and the gear mesh interface have a significant effect on the dynamic responses of the components in this coupled dynamics system.

  7. Early dynamical evolution of young substructured clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorval, Julien; Boily, Christian

    2017-03-01

    Stellar clusters form with a high level of substructure, inherited from the molecular cloud and the star formation process. Evidence from observations and simulations also indicate the stars in such young clusters form a subvirial system. The subsequent dynamical evolution can cause important mass loss, ejecting a large part of the birth population in the field. It can also imprint the stellar population and still be inferred from observations of evolved clusters. Nbody simulations allow a better understanding of these early twists and turns, given realistic initial conditions. Nowadays, substructured, clumpy young clusters are usually obtained through pseudo-fractal growth and velocity inheritance. We introduce a new way to create clumpy initial conditions through a ''Hubble expansion'' which naturally produces self consistent clumps, velocity-wise. In depth analysis of the resulting clumps shows consistency with hydrodynamical simulations of young star clusters. We use these initial conditions to investigate the dynamical evolution of young subvirial clusters. We find the collapse to be soft, with hierarchical merging leading to a high level of mass segregation. The subsequent evolution is less pronounced than the equilibrium achieved from a cold collapse formation scenario.

  8. Environmental transmission of Mycobacterium ulcerans drives dynamics of Buruli ulcer in endemic regions of Cameroon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garchitorena, Andrés; Ngonghala, Calistus N.; Texier, Gaëtan; Landier, Jordi; Eyangoh, Sara; Bonds, Matthew H.; Guégan, Jean-François; Roche, Benjamin

    2015-12-01

    Buruli Ulcer is a devastating skin disease caused by the pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans. Emergence and distribution of Buruli ulcer cases is clearly linked to aquatic ecosystems, but the specific route of transmission of M. ulcerans to humans remains unclear. Relying on the most detailed field data in space and time on M. ulcerans and Buruli ulcer available today, we assess the relative contribution of two potential transmission routes -environmental and water bug transmission- to the dynamics of Buruli ulcer in two endemic regions of Cameroon. The temporal dynamics of Buruli ulcer incidence are explained by estimating rates of different routes of transmission in mathematical models. Independently, we also estimate statistical models of the different transmission pathways on the spatial distribution of Buruli ulcer. The results of these two independent approaches are corroborative and suggest that environmental transmission pathways explain the temporal and spatial patterns of Buruli ulcer in our endemic areas better than the water bug transmission.

  9. Experimental pig-to-pig transmission dynamics for African swine fever virus, Georgia 2007/1 strain.

    PubMed

    Guinat, C; Gubbins, S; Vergne, T; Gonzales, J L; Dixon, L; Pfeiffer, D U

    2016-01-01

    African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to cause outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boar in Eastern European countries. To gain insights into its transmission dynamics, we estimated the pig-to-pig basic reproduction number (R 0) for the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model with parameters estimated from transmission experiments. Models showed that R 0 is 2·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3-4·8] within a pen and 1·4 (95% CI 0·6-2·4) between pens. The results furthermore suggest that ASFV genome detection in oronasal samples is an effective diagnostic tool for early detection of infection. This study provides quantitative information on transmission parameters for ASFV in domestic pigs, which are required to more effectively assess the potential impact of strategies for the control of between-farm epidemic spread in European countries.

  10. The Genealogical Population Dynamics of HIV-1 in a Large Transmission Chain: Bridging within and among Host Evolutionary Rates

    PubMed Central

    Vrancken, Bram; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A.; Drummond, Alexei; Baele, Guy; Derdelinckx, Inge; Van Wijngaerden, Eric; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Van Laethem, Kristel; Lemey, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    Transmission lies at the interface of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) evolution within and among hosts and separates distinct selective pressures that impose differences in both the mode of diversification and the tempo of evolution. In the absence of comprehensive direct comparative analyses of the evolutionary processes at different biological scales, our understanding of how fast within-host HIV-1 evolutionary rates translate to lower rates at the between host level remains incomplete. Here, we address this by analyzing pol and env data from a large HIV-1 subtype C transmission chain for which both the timing and the direction is known for most transmission events. To this purpose, we develop a new transmission model in a Bayesian genealogical inference framework and demonstrate how to constrain the viral evolutionary history to be compatible with the transmission history while simultaneously inferring the within-host evolutionary and population dynamics. We show that accommodating a transmission bottleneck affords the best fit our data, but the sparse within-host HIV-1 sampling prevents accurate quantification of the concomitant loss in genetic diversity. We draw inference under the transmission model to estimate HIV-1 evolutionary rates among epidemiologically-related patients and demonstrate that they lie in between fast intra-host rates and lower rates among epidemiologically unrelated individuals infected with HIV subtype C. Using a new molecular clock approach, we quantify and find support for a lower evolutionary rate along branches that accommodate a transmission event or branches that represent the entire backbone of transmitted lineages in our transmission history. Finally, we recover the rate differences at the different biological scales for both synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates, which is only compatible with the ‘store and retrieve’ hypothesis positing that viruses stored early in latently infected cells

  11. The effect of sexual transmission on Zika virus dynamics.

    PubMed

    Saad-Roy, C M; Ma, Junling; van den Driessche, P

    2018-04-25

    Zika virus is a human disease that may lead to neurological disorders in affected individuals, and may be transmitted vectorially (by mosquitoes) or sexually. A mathematical model of Zika virus transmission is formulated, taking into account mosquitoes, sexually active males and females, inactive individuals, and considering both vector transmission and sexual transmission from infectious males to susceptible females. Basic reproduction numbers are computed, and disease control strategies are evaluated. The effect of the incidence function used to model sexual transmission from infectious males to susceptible females is investigated. It is proved that for such functions that are sublinear, if the basic reproduction [Formula: see text], then the disease dies out and [Formula: see text] is a sharp threshold. Moreover, under certain conditions on model parameters and assuming mass action incidence for sexual transmission, it is proved that if [Formula: see text], there exists a unique endemic equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable. However, under nonlinear incidence, it is shown that for certain functions backward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation may occur, giving rise to subthreshold equilibria and periodic solutions, respectively. Numerical simulations for various parameter values are displayed to illustrate these behaviours.

  12. Dynamic investigation of a locomotive with effect of gear transmissions under tractive conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Zaigang; Zhai, Wanming; Wang, Kaiyun

    2017-11-01

    Locomotive is used to drag trailers to move or supply the braking forces to slow the running speed of a train. The electromagnetic torque of the motor is always transmitted by the gear transmission system to the wheelset for generation of the tractive or braking forces at the wheel-rail contact interface. Consequently, gear transmission system is significant for power delivery of a locomotive. This paper develops a comprehensive locomotive-track vertical-longitudinal coupled dynamics model with dynamic effect of gear transmissions. This dynamics model enables considering the coupling interactions between the gear transmission motion, the vertical and the longitudinal motions of the vehicle, and the vertical vibration of the track structure. In this study, some complicated dynamic excitations, such as the gear time-varying mesh stiffness, nonlinear gear tooth backlash, the nonlinear wheel-rail normal contact force and creep force, and the rail vertical geometrical irregularity, are considered. Then, the dynamic responses of the locomotive under the tractive conditions are demonstrated by numerical simulations based on the established dynamics model and by experimental test. The developed dynamics model is validated by the good agreement between the experimental and the theoretical results. The calculated results reveal that the gear transmission system has strong dynamic interactions with the wheel-rail contact interface including both the vertical and the longitudinal motions, and it has negligible effect on the vibrations of the bogie frame and carbody.

  13. Early Dynamics of the Moon's Core

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cuk, Matija; Hamilton, Douglas; Stewart, Sarah T.

    2018-04-01

    The Moon has a small molten iron core (Williams et al. 2006). Remanent magnetization in lunar rocks likely derives from a past lunar dynamo (Wieczorek 2018 and references therein), which may have been powered by differential precession between the mantle and the core. The rotations of the lunar mantle and core were largely decoupled for much of lunar history, with a large mutual offset during the Cassini State Transition (Meyer and Wisdom, 2011). It is likely that the past work underestimated lunar obliquities, and therefore core offsets, during early lunar history (Cuk et al. 2016). Here we investigate the dynamics of the lunar core and mantle using a Lie-Poisson numerical integrator (Touma and Wisdom 2001) which includes interactions between triaxial core and mantle, as well as all gravitational and tidal effects included in the model of Cuk et al. (2016). Since we assume a rigid triaxial mantle, this model is applicable to the Moon only once it has acquired its current shape, which probably happened before the Moon reached 25 Earth radii. While some details of the core dynamics depend on our assumptions about the shape of the lunar core-mantle boundary, we can report some robust preliminary findings. The presence of the core does not change significantly the evolutionary scenario of Cuk et al. (2016). The core and mantle are indeed decoupled, with the core having a much smaller obliquity to the ecliptic than the mantle for almost all of the lunar history. The core was largely in an equivalent of Cassini State 2, with the vernal equinoxes (wrt the ecliptic) of the core and the mantle being anti-aligned. The core-mantle spin axis offset has been very large during the Moon's first billion years (this is true both in canonical and high-inclination tidal evolution), causing the lunar core to be sub-synchronous. If the ancient lunar magnetic dipole was rotating around the core axis that was inclined to the Moon's spin axis, then the magnetic poles would move across

  14. Oxytocin Pathways in the Intergenerational Transmission of Maternal Early Life Stress

    PubMed Central

    Toepfer, Philipp; Heim, Christine; Entringer, Sonja; Binder, Elisabeth; Wadhwa, Pathik; Buss, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    Severe stress in early life, such as childhood abuse and neglect, constitutes a major risk factor in the etiology of psychiatric disorders and somatic diseases. Importantly, these long-term effects may impact the next generation. The intergenerational transmission of maternal early life stress (ELS) may occur via pre-and postnatal pathways, such as alterations in maternal-fetal-placental stress physiology, maternal depression during pregnancy and postpartum, as well as impaired mother-offspring interactions. The neuropeptide oxytocin (OT) has gained considerable attention for its role in modulating all of these assumed transmission pathways. Moreover, central and peripheral OT signaling pathways are highly sensitive to environmental exposures and may be compromised by ELS with implications for these putative transmission mechanisms. Together, these data suggest that OT pathways play an important role in the intergenerational transmission of maternal ELS in humans. By integrating recent studies on gene-environment interactions and epigenetic modifications in OT pathway genes, the present review aims to develop a conceptual framework of intergenerational transmission of maternal ELS that emphasizes the role of OT. PMID:28027955

  15. High uptake of exclusive breastfeeding and reduced early post-natal HIV transmission.

    PubMed

    Kuhn, Louise; Sinkala, Moses; Kankasa, Chipepo; Semrau, Katherine; Kasonde, Prisca; Scott, Nancy; Mwiya, Mwiya; Vwalika, Cheswa; Walter, Jan; Tsai, Wei-Yann; Aldrovandi, Grace M; Thea, Donald M

    2007-12-26

    Empirical data showing the clear benefits of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) for HIV prevention are needed to encourage implementation of lactation support programs for HIV-infected women in low resource settings among whom replacement feeding is unsafe. We conducted a prospective, observational study in Lusaka, Zambia, to test the hypothesis that EBF is associated with a lower risk of postnatal HIV transmission than non-EBF. As part of a randomized trial of early weaning, 958 HIV-infected women and their infants were recruited and all were encouraged to breastfeed exclusively to 4 months. Single-dose nevirapine was provided to prevent transmission. Regular samples were collected from infants to 24 months of age and tested by PCR. Detailed measurements of actual feeding behaviors were collected to examine, in an observational analysis, associations between feeding practices and postnatal HIV transmission. Uptake of EBF was high with 84% of women reporting only EBF cumulatively to 4 months. Post-natal HIV transmission before 4 months was significantly lower (p = 0.004) among EBF (0.040 95% CI: 0.024-0.055) than non-EBF infants (0.102 95% CI: 0.047-0.157); time-dependent Relative Hazard (RH) of transmission due to non-EBF = 3.48 (95% CI: 1.71-7.08). There were no significant differences in the severity of disease between EBF and non-EBF mothers and the association remained significant (RH = 2.68 95% CI: 1.28-5.62) after adjusting for maternal CD4 count, plasma viral load, syphilis screening results and low birth weight. Non-EBF more than doubles the risk of early postnatal HIV transmission. Programs to support EBF should be expanded universally in low resource settings. EBF is an affordable, feasible, acceptable, safe and sustainable practice that also reduces HIV transmission providing HIV-infected women with a means to protect their children's lives. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00310726.

  16. The 1918 influenza pandemic in New York City: age-specific timing, mortality, and transmission dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Wan; Petkova, Elisaveta; Shaman, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    Background The 1918 influenza pandemic caused disproportionately high mortality among certain age groups. The mechanisms underlying these differences are not fully understood. Objectives To explore the dynamics of the 1918 pandemic and to identify potential age-specific transmission patterns. Methods We examined 1915–1923 daily mortality data in New York City (NYC) and estimated the outbreak duration and initial effective reproductive number (Re) for each 1-year age cohort. Results Four pandemic waves occurred from February 1918 to April 1920. The fractional mortality increase (i.e. ratio of excess mortality to baseline mortality) was highest among teenagers during the first wave. This peak shifted to 25- to 29-year-olds in subsequent waves. The distribution of age-specific mortality during the last three waves was strongly correlated (r = 0·94 and 0·86). With each wave, the pandemic appeared to spread with a comparable early growth rate but then attenuate with varying rates. For the entire population, Re estimates made assuming 2-day serial interval were 1·74 (1·27), 1·74 (1·43), 1·66 (1·25), and 1·86 (1·37), respectively, during the first week (first 3 weeks) of each wave. Using age-specific mortality, the average Re estimates over the first week of each wave were 1·62 (95% CI: 1·55–1·68), 1·68 (1·65–1·72), 1·67 (1·61–1·73), and 1·69 (1·63–1·74), respectively; Re was not significantly different either among age cohorts or between waves. Conclusions The pandemic generally caused higher mortality among young adults and might have spread mainly among school-aged children during the first wave. We propose mechanisms to explain the timing and transmission dynamics of the four NYC pandemic waves. PMID:24299150

  17. Locomotive dynamic performance under traction/braking conditions considering effect of gear transmissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Zaigang; Zhai, Wanming; Wang, Kaiyun

    2018-07-01

    Traction or braking operations are usually applied to trains or locomotives for acceleration, speed adjustment, and stopping. During these operations, gear transmission equipment plays a very significant role in the delivery of traction or electrical braking power. Failures of the gear transmissions are likely to cause power loses and even threaten the operation safety of the train. Its dynamic performance is closely related to the normal operation and service safety of the entire train, especially under some emergency braking conditions. In this paper, a locomotive-track coupled vertical-longitudinal dynamics model is employed with considering the dynamic action from the gear transmissions. This dynamics model enables the detailed analysis and more practical simulation on the characteristics of power transmission path, namely motor-gear transmission-wheelset-longitudinal motion of locomotive, especially for traction or braking conditions. Multi-excitation sources, such as time-varying mesh stiffness and nonlinear wheel-rail contact excitations, are considered in this study. This dynamics model is then validated by comparing the simulated results with the experimental test results under braking conditions. The calculated results indicate that involvement of gear transmission could reveal the load reduction of the wheelset due to transmitted forces. Vibrations of the wheelset and the motor are dominated by variation of the gear dynamic mesh forces in the low speed range and by rail geometric irregularity in the higher speed range. Rail vertical geometric irregularity could also cause wheelset longitudinal vibrations, and do modulations to the gear dynamic mesh forces. Besides, the hauling weight has little effect on the locomotive vibrations and the dynamic mesh forces of the gear transmissions for both traction and braking conditions under the same running speed.

  18. Accounting for Space—Quantification of Cell-To-Cell Transmission Kinetics Using Virus Dynamics Models.

    PubMed

    Kumberger, Peter; Durso-Cain, Karina; Uprichard, Susan L; Dahari, Harel; Graw, Frederik

    2018-04-17

    Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) that describe the population dynamics of viruses and infected cells have been an essential tool to characterize and quantify viral infection dynamics. Although an important aspect of viral infection is the dynamics of viral spread, which includes transmission by cell-free virions and direct cell-to-cell transmission, models used so far ignored cell-to-cell transmission completely, or accounted for this process by simple mass-action kinetics between infected and uninfected cells. In this study, we show that the simple mass-action approach falls short when describing viral spread in a spatially-defined environment. Using simulated data, we present a model extension that allows correct quantification of cell-to-cell transmission dynamics within a monolayer of cells. By considering the decreasing proportion of cells that can contribute to cell-to-cell spread with progressing infection, our extension accounts for the transmission dynamics on a single cell level while still remaining applicable to standard population-based experimental measurements. While the ability to infer the proportion of cells infected by either of the transmission modes depends on the viral diffusion rate, the improved estimates obtained using our novel approach emphasize the need to correctly account for spatial aspects when analyzing viral spread.

  19. Modeling the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in Liberia.

    PubMed

    Xia, Zhi-Qiang; Wang, Shi-Fu; Li, Shen-Long; Huang, Liu-Yu; Zhang, Wen-Yi; Sun, Gui-Quan; Gai, Zhong-Tao; Jin, Zhen

    2015-09-08

    Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976. The 2014 EVD outbreak in West Africa is the largest ever, which has caused a large number of deaths and the most serious country is Liberia during the outbreak period. Based on the data released by World Health Organization and the actual transmission situations, we investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the EVD outbreak in Liberia and estimate the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.012 in the absence of effective control measures. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we reveal that the transmission coefficients of suspected and probable cases have stronger correlations on the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we study the influence of control measures (isolation and safe burial measures) on EVD outbreak. It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained. The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

  20. Mode of Parainfluenza Virus Transmission Determines the Dynamics of Primary Infection and Protection from Reinfection

    PubMed Central

    Burke, Crystal W.; Bridges, Olga; Brown, Sherri; Rahija, Richard; Russell, Charles J.

    2013-01-01

    Little is known about how the mode of respiratory virus transmission determines the dynamics of primary infection and protection from reinfection. Using non-invasive imaging of murine parainfluenza virus 1 (Sendai virus) in living mice, we determined the frequency, timing, dynamics, and virulence of primary infection after contact and airborne transmission, as well as the tropism and magnitude of reinfection after subsequent challenge. Contact transmission of Sendai virus was 100% efficient, phenotypically uniform, initiated and grew to robust levels in the upper respiratory tract (URT), later spread to the lungs, grew to a lower level in the lungs than the URT, and protected from reinfection completely in the URT yet only partially in the lungs. Airborne transmission through 7.6-cm and 15.2-cm separations between donor and recipient mice was 86%–100% efficient. The dynamics of primary infection after airborne transmission varied between individual mice and included the following categories: (a) non-productive transmission, (b) tracheal dominant, (c) tracheal initiated yet respiratory disseminated, and (d) nasopharyngeal initiated yet respiratory disseminated. Any previous exposure to Sendai virus infection protected from mortality and severe morbidity after lethal challenge. Furthermore, a higher level of primary infection in a given respiratory tissue (nasopharynx, trachea, or lungs) was inversely correlated with the level of reinfection in that same tissue. Overall, the mode of transmission determined the dynamics and tropism of primary infection, which in turn governed the level of seroconversion and protection from reinfection. These data are the first description of the dynamics of respiratory virus infection and protection from reinfection throughout the respiratory tracts of living animals after airborne transmission. This work provides a basis for understanding parainfluenza virus transmission and protective immunity and for developing novel vaccines and

  1. Hydrologic variability and the dynamics of West Nile virus transmission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaman, J. L.

    2011-12-01

    West Nile virus (WNV) first emerged in North America in New York City during 1999 and since that time has spread throughout the continent and settled into a pattern of local endemicity in which outbreaks of variable size develop in some years but not others. Predicting where and when these outbreaks will develop is an issue of considerable public health importance. Spillover transmission of WNV to humans typically occurs when infection rates among vector mosquitoes are elevated. Mosquito infection rates are not constant through time but instead increase when newly emergent mosquitoes can more readily acquire WNV by blood-meal feeding on available, infected animal hosts. Such an increase of vector mosquito infection rates is termed amplification and is facilitated for WNV by intense zoonotic transmission of the virus among vector mosquitoes and avian hosts. Theory, observation and model simulations indicate that amplification is favored when mosquito breeding habitats and bird nesting and roosting habitats overlap. Both vector mosquitoes and vertebrate hosts depend on water resources; mosquitoes are critically dependent on the availability of standing water, as the first 3 stages of the mosquito life cycle, egg, larvae, pupae, are aquatic. Here it is shown that hydrologic variability often determines where and when vector mosquitoes and avian hosts congregate together, and when the amplification of WNV is more likely. Measures of land surface wetness and pooling, from ground observation, satellite observation, or numerical modeling, can provide reliable estimates of where and when WNV transmission hotspots will arise. Examples of this linkage between hydrology and WNV activity are given for Florida, Colorado and New York, and an operational system for monitoring and forecasting WNV risk in space and time is presented for Florida.

  2. Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control.

    PubMed

    Smith, David L; Perkins, T Alex; Reiner, Robert C; Barker, Christopher M; Niu, Tianchan; Chaves, Luis Fernando; Ellis, Alicia M; George, Dylan B; Le Menach, Arnaud; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Bisanzio, Donal; Buckee, Caroline; Chiyaka, Christinah; Cummings, Derek A T; Garcia, Andres J; Gatton, Michelle L; Gething, Peter W; Hartley, David M; Johnston, Geoffrey; Klein, Eili Y; Michael, Edwin; Lloyd, Alun L; Pigott, David M; Reisen, William K; Ruktanonchai, Nick; Singh, Brajendra K; Stoller, Jeremy; Tatem, Andrew J; Kitron, Uriel; Godfray, H Charles J; Cohen, Justin M; Hay, Simon I; Scott, Thomas W

    2014-04-01

    Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald's formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are now used to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross-Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context for mosquito blood feeding, the movement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

  3. Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

    PubMed Central

    Smith, David L.; Perkins, T. Alex; Reiner, Robert C.; Barker, Christopher M.; Niu, Tianchan; Chaves, Luis Fernando; Ellis, Alicia M.; George, Dylan B.; Le Menach, Arnaud; Pulliam, Juliet R. C.; Bisanzio, Donal; Buckee, Caroline; Chiyaka, Christinah; Cummings, Derek A. T.; Garcia, Andres J.; Gatton, Michelle L.; Gething, Peter W.; Hartley, David M.; Johnston, Geoffrey; Klein, Eili Y.; Michael, Edwin; Lloyd, Alun L.; Pigott, David M.; Reisen, William K.; Ruktanonchai, Nick; Singh, Brajendra K.; Stoller, Jeremy; Tatem, Andrew J.; Kitron, Uriel; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Cohen, Justin M.; Hay, Simon I.; Scott, Thomas W.

    2014-01-01

    Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald's formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are now used to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context for mosquito blood feeding, the movement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control. PMID:24591453

  4. Patterns of early transmission of pandemic influenza in London – link with deprivation

    PubMed Central

    Balasegaram, Sooria; Ogilvie, Flora; Glasswell, Amy; Anderson, Charlotte; Cleary, Vivien; Turbitt, Deborah; McCloskey, Brian

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Balasegaram et al. (2012) Patterns of early transmission of pandemic influenza in London – link with deprivation. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 6(3), e35–e41. Background  During the early containment phase in England from April to June 2009, the national strategy for H1N1 pandemic influenza involved case investigation and treatment, and tracing and prophylaxis of contacts. Objective  To describe the relationship between early transmission of H1N1 pandemic influenza in London and age and socio‐economic status. Methods  Epidemiological data on cases of pandemic flu in London reported to the London Flu Response Centre were analysed to determine patterns of transmission. Results  There were 3487 reported cases (2202 confirmed, 1272 presumed and 14 probable) from 20 April to 28 June 2009, during the ‘containment’ period. The highest report rate of 206 per 100 000 (95% CI 195–218) was seen in primary school–age children (5−11 years) followed by 129 (95% CI 119–139) in secondary school–age children (12–18 years). Reports of cases were initially concentrated in affluent areas but overall showed a clear trend with deprivation and risk ratio of 2·32 (95% CI 1·94–2·78) between the most deprived and the least deprived. Conclusion  Early transmissions were highest amongst school‐aged children but linked with socio‐economic deprivation across all age groups. PMID:22236079

  5. The Role of Early-Phase Transmission in the Spread of Yersinia pestis

    PubMed Central

    EISEN, REBECCA J.; DENNIS, DAVID T.; GAGE, KENNETH L.

    2015-01-01

    Early-phase transmission (EPT) of Yersinia pestis by unblocked fleas is a well-documented, replicable phenomenon with poorly defined mechanisms. We review evidence demonstrating EPT and current knowledge on its biological and biomechanical processes. We discuss the importance of EPT in the epizootic spread of Y. pestis and its role in the maintenance of plague bacteria in nature. We further address the role of EPT in the epidemiology of plague. PMID:26336267

  6. Gender Moderation of the Intergenerational Transmission and Stability of Depressive Symptoms from Early Adolescence to Early Adulthood.

    PubMed

    Mason, W Alex; Chmelka, Mary B; Trudeau, Linda; Spoth, Richard L

    2017-01-01

    Factors that might exacerbate or mitigate the transmission of depressive symptoms from parents to adolescents and the continuity of depressive symptoms into early adulthood are poorly understood. This study tested the hypothesis that the intergenerational transmission and stability of depressive symptoms would be stronger for girls than boys over adolescence and into early adulthood, while considering the possibility that the pattern of gender moderation might vary depending on parent gender and developmental timing. The participants were 667 rural Midwestern adolescents (52 % female) and their parents. Survey data on maternal and paternal depressive symptoms (at youth age 11) and on adolescent and young adult depressive symptoms (at youth ages 11, 18, and 21) were analyzed via multiple group structural equation modeling. Maternal depressive symptoms predicted increased late adolescent depressive symptoms for girls but not boys, and adolescent depressive symptoms were more stable in girls. Paternal depressive symptoms predicted increased late adolescent depressive symptoms for all youth. The findings suggest the need for early, tailored interventions.

  7. Gender Moderation of the Intergenerational Transmission and Stability of Depressive Symptoms from Early Adolescence to Early Adulthood

    PubMed Central

    Chmelka, Mary B.; Trudeau, Linda; Spoth, Richard L.

    2016-01-01

    Factors that might exacerbate or mitigate the transmission of depressive symptoms from parents to adolescents and the continuity of depressive symptoms into early adulthood are poorly understood. This study tested the hypothesis that the intergenerational transmission and stability of depressive symptoms would be stronger for girls than boys over adolescence and into early adulthood, while considering the possibility that the pattern of gender moderation might vary depending on parent gender and developmental timing. The participants were 667 rural Midwestern adolescents (52 % female) and their parents. Survey data on maternal and paternal depressive symptoms (at youth age 11) and on adolescent and young adult depressive symptoms (at youth ages 11, 18, and 21) were analyzed via multiple group structural equation modeling. Maternal depressive symptoms predicted increased late adolescent depressive symptoms for girls but not boys, and adolescent depressive symptoms were more stable in girls. Paternal depressive symptoms predicted increased late adolescent depressive symptoms for all youth. The findings suggest the need for early, tailored interventions. PMID:27055682

  8. The Impact of Ventilation and Early Diagnosis on Tuberculosis Transmission in Brazilian Prisons

    PubMed Central

    Urrego, Juliana; Ko, Albert I.; da Silva Santos Carbone, Andrea; Paião, Dayse Sanchez Guimarães; Sgarbi, Renata Viebrantz Enne; Yeckel, Catherine W.; Andrews, Jason R.; Croda, Julio

    2015-01-01

    Prisoners have among the highest incidence of tuberculosis (TB) globally. However, the contribution of the prison environment on transmission is not well understood and structural characteristics have received little attention as effective epidemiological interventions in TB control. We evaluated architectural characteristics and estimated ventilation rates in 141 cells in three prisons in central west Brazil using steady-state exhaled carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. We used a modified Wells–Riley equation to estimate the probability of infection for inmates sharing a cell with an infectious case and projected the impact of interventions, including early diagnosis and improved ventilation. Overall, prison cells were densely populated (mean 2.1 m2 per occupant) and poorly ventilated, with only three cells meeting World Health Organization (WHO) standards for per-person ventilation (60 L/s) applied in infection control settings. In the absence of interventions, projected mean risk of infection was 78.0% during a 6-month period. Decreasing time-to-diagnosis by 25% reduced transmission risk by 8.3%. Improving ventilation to WHO standards decreased transmission by 38.2%, whereas optimizing cross-ventilation reduced transmission by 64.4%. Prison environments promote high infection risk over short-time intervals. In this context, enhanced diagnostics have a limited impact on reducing transmission. Improving natural ventilation may be required to effectively control TB in prisons. PMID:26195459

  9. The Impact of Ventilation and Early Diagnosis on Tuberculosis Transmission in Brazilian Prisons.

    PubMed

    Urrego, Juliana; Ko, Albert I; da Silva Santos Carbone, Andrea; Paião, Dayse Sanchez Guimarães; Sgarbi, Renata Viebrantz Enne; Yeckel, Catherine W; Andrews, Jason R; Croda, Julio

    2015-10-01

    Prisoners have among the highest incidence of tuberculosis (TB) globally. However, the contribution of the prison environment on transmission is not well understood and structural characteristics have received little attention as effective epidemiological interventions in TB control. We evaluated architectural characteristics and estimated ventilation rates in 141 cells in three prisons in central west Brazil using steady-state exhaled carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. We used a modified Wells-Riley equation to estimate the probability of infection for inmates sharing a cell with an infectious case and projected the impact of interventions, including early diagnosis and improved ventilation. Overall, prison cells were densely populated (mean 2.1 m(2) per occupant) and poorly ventilated, with only three cells meeting World Health Organization (WHO) standards for per-person ventilation (60 L/s) applied in infection control settings. In the absence of interventions, projected mean risk of infection was 78.0% during a 6-month period. Decreasing time-to-diagnosis by 25% reduced transmission risk by 8.3%. Improving ventilation to WHO standards decreased transmission by 38.2%, whereas optimizing cross-ventilation reduced transmission by 64.4%. Prison environments promote high infection risk over short-time intervals. In this context, enhanced diagnostics have a limited impact on reducing transmission. Improving natural ventilation may be required to effectively control TB in prisons. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  10. Dynamic sex roles among men who have sex with men and transmissions from primary HIV infection.

    PubMed

    Alam, Shah Jamal; Romero-Severson, Ethan; Kim, Jong-Hoon; Emond, Gilbert; Koopman, James S

    2010-09-01

    Previous studies estimating the fraction of transmissions from persons with primary HIV have not focused on the effects of switching sex role in male homosexual populations. Such behavioral fluctuations can increase the contribution of primary HIV in the overall population. We modeled HIV transmission with 8 compartments defined by 4 behavioral groups, with different anal-insertive and anal-receptive combinations, and 2 stages of infection. We explored the effects of fluctuating behavioral categories on endemic prevalence and the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV. We varied transition rates to develop the theory on how behavioral fluctuation affects infection patterns, and we used the transition rates in a Netherlands cohort to assess overall effects in a real setting. The dynamics of change in behavior-group status over time observed in the Netherlands cohort amplifies the prevalence of infection and the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV, resulting in the highest proportions of transmissions being from people with primary HIV. Fluctuation between dual- or receptive-role periods and no-anal-sex periods mainly determines this amplification. In terms of the total transmissions, the dual-role risk group is dominant. Fluctuation between insertive and receptive roles decreases the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV, but such fluctuation is infrequently observed. The fraction of transmissions from primary HIV is considerably raised by fluctuations in insertive and receptive anal sex behaviors. This increase occurs even when primary HIV or later infection status does not influence risk behavior. Thus, it is not simply biology but also behavior patterns and social contexts that determine the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV. Moreover, each primary HIV transmission has a larger population effect than each later infection transmission because the men to whom one transmits from primary HIV carry on more chains of transmissions than the men

  11. Broad patterns in domestic vector-borne Trypanosoma cruzi transmission dynamics: synanthropic animals and vector control.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Jennifer K; Bartsch, Sarah M; Lee, Bruce Y; Dobson, Andrew P

    2015-10-22

    Chagas disease (caused by Trypanosoma cruzi) is the most important neglected tropical disease (NTD) in Latin America, infecting an estimated 5.7 million people in the 21 countries where it is endemic. It is one of the NTDs targeted for control and elimination by the 2020 London Declaration goals, with the first goal being to interrupt intra-domiciliary vector-borne T. cruzi transmission. A key question in domestic T. cruzi transmission is the role that synanthropic animals play in T. cruzi transmission to humans. Here, we ask, (1) do synanthropic animals need to be targeted in Chagas disease prevention policies?, and (2) how does the presence of animals affect the efficacy of vector control? We developed a simple mathematical model to simulate domestic vector-borne T. cruzi transmission and to specifically examine the interaction between the presence of synanthropic animals and effects of vector control. We used the model to explore how the interactions between triatomine bugs, humans and animals impact the number and proportion of T. cruzi-infected bugs and humans. We then examined how T. cruzi dynamics change when control measures targeting vector abundance are introduced into the system. We found that the presence of synanthropic animals slows the speed of T. cruzi transmission to humans, and increases the sensitivity of T. cruzi transmission dynamics to vector control measures at comparable triatomine carrying capacities. However, T. cruzi transmission is amplified when triatomine carrying capacity increases with the abundance of syntathoropic hosts. Our results suggest that in domestic T. cruzi transmission scenarios where no vector control measures are in place, a reduction in synanthropic animals may slow T. cruzi transmission to humans, but it would not completely eliminate transmission. To reach the 2020 goal of interrupting intra-domiciliary T. cruzi transmission, it is critical to target vector populations. Additionally, where vector control measures

  12. The Population Biology and Transmission Dynamics of Loa loa.

    PubMed

    Whittaker, Charles; Walker, Martin; Pion, Sébastien D S; Chesnais, Cédric B; Boussinesq, Michel; Basáñez, María-Gloria

    2018-04-01

    Endemic to Central Africa, loiasis - or African eye worm (caused by the filarial nematode Loa loa) - affects more than 10 million people. Despite causing ocular and systemic symptoms, it has typically been considered a benign condition, only of public health relevance because it impedes mass drug administration-based interventions against onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis in co-endemic areas. Recent research has challenged this conception, demonstrating excess mortality associated with high levels of infection, implying that loiasis warrants attention as an intrinsic public health problem. This review summarises available information on the key parasitological, entomological, and epidemiological characteristics of the infection and argues for the mobilisation of resources to control the disease, and the development of a mathematical transmission model to guide deployment of interventions. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  13. Transmission dynamics and elimination potential of zoonotic tuberculosis in morocco

    PubMed Central

    Justus Bless, Philipp; Crump, Lisa; Lohmann, Petra; Laager, Mirjam; Chitnis, Nakul; Zinsstag, Jakob

    2017-01-01

    Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an endemic zoonosis in Morocco caused by Mycobacterium bovis, which infects many domestic animals and is transmitted to humans through consumption of raw milk or from contact with infected animals. The prevalence of BTB in Moroccan cattle is estimated at 18%, and 33% at the individual and the herd level respectively, but the human M. bovis burden needs further clarification. The current control strategy based on test and slaughter should be improved through local context adaptation taking into account a suitable compensation in order to reduce BTB prevalence in Morocco and decrease the disease burden in humans and animals. We established a simple compartmental deterministic mathematical model for BTB transmission in cattle and humans to provide a general understanding of BTB, in particular regarding transmission to humans. Differential equations were used to model the different pathways between the compartments for cattle and humans. Scenarios of test and slaughter were simulated to determine the effects of varying the proportion of tested animals (p) on the time to elimination of BTB (individual animal prevalence of less than one in a thousand) in cattle and humans. The time to freedom from disease ranged from 75 years for p = 20% to 12 years for p = 100%. For p > 60% the time to elimination was less than 20 years. The cumulated cost was largely stable: for p values higher than 40%, cost ranged from 1.47 to 1.60 billion euros with a time frame of 12 to 32 years to reach freedom from disease. The model simulations also suggest that using a 2mm cut off instead of a 4mm cut off in the Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin skin test (SICCT) would result in cheaper and quicker elimination programs. This analysis informs Moroccan bovine tuberculosis control policy regarding time frame, range of cost and levels of intervention. However, further research is needed to clarify the national human-bovine tuberculosis ratio in Morocco

  14. Transmission dynamics and elimination potential of zoonotic tuberculosis in morocco.

    PubMed

    Abakar, Mahamat Fayiz; Yahyaoui Azami, Hind; Justus Bless, Philipp; Crump, Lisa; Lohmann, Petra; Laager, Mirjam; Chitnis, Nakul; Zinsstag, Jakob

    2017-02-01

    Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an endemic zoonosis in Morocco caused by Mycobacterium bovis, which infects many domestic animals and is transmitted to humans through consumption of raw milk or from contact with infected animals. The prevalence of BTB in Moroccan cattle is estimated at 18%, and 33% at the individual and the herd level respectively, but the human M. bovis burden needs further clarification. The current control strategy based on test and slaughter should be improved through local context adaptation taking into account a suitable compensation in order to reduce BTB prevalence in Morocco and decrease the disease burden in humans and animals. We established a simple compartmental deterministic mathematical model for BTB transmission in cattle and humans to provide a general understanding of BTB, in particular regarding transmission to humans. Differential equations were used to model the different pathways between the compartments for cattle and humans. Scenarios of test and slaughter were simulated to determine the effects of varying the proportion of tested animals (p) on the time to elimination of BTB (individual animal prevalence of less than one in a thousand) in cattle and humans. The time to freedom from disease ranged from 75 years for p = 20% to 12 years for p = 100%. For p > 60% the time to elimination was less than 20 years. The cumulated cost was largely stable: for p values higher than 40%, cost ranged from 1.47 to 1.60 billion euros with a time frame of 12 to 32 years to reach freedom from disease. The model simulations also suggest that using a 2mm cut off instead of a 4mm cut off in the Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin skin test (SICCT) would result in cheaper and quicker elimination programs. This analysis informs Moroccan bovine tuberculosis control policy regarding time frame, range of cost and levels of intervention. However, further research is needed to clarify the national human-bovine tuberculosis ratio in Morocco.

  15. Dynamic Responses and Vibration Control of the Transmission Tower-Line System: A State-of-the-Art Review

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Bo; Guo, Wei-hua; Li, Peng-yun; Xie, Wen-ping

    2014-01-01

    This paper presented an overview on the dynamic analysis and control of the transmission tower-line system in the past forty years. The challenges and future developing trends in the dynamic analysis and mitigation of the transmission tower-line system under dynamic excitations are also put forward. It also reviews the analytical models and approaches of the transmission tower, transmission lines, and transmission tower-line systems, respectively, which contain the theoretical model, finite element (FE) model and the equivalent model; shows the advances in wind responses of the transmission tower-line system, which contains the dynamic effects under common wind loading, tornado, downburst, and typhoon; and discusses the dynamic responses under earthquake and ice loads, respectively. The vibration control of the transmission tower-line system is also reviewed, which includes the magnetorheological dampers, friction dampers, tuned mass dampers, and pounding tuned mass dampers. PMID:25105161

  16. HIV Transmission Dynamics Among Foreign-Born Persons in the United States.

    PubMed

    Valverde, Eduardo E; Oster, Alexandra M; Xu, Songli; Wertheim, Joel O; Hernandez, Angela L

    2017-12-15

    In the United States (US), foreign-born persons are disproportionately affected by HIV and differ epidemiologically from US-born persons with diagnosed HIV infection. Understanding HIV transmission dynamics among foreign-born persons is important to guide HIV prevention efforts for these populations. We conducted molecular transmission network analysis to describe HIV transmission dynamics among foreign-born persons with diagnosed HIV. Using HIV-1 polymerase nucleotide sequences reported to the US National HIV Surveillance System for persons with diagnosed HIV infection during 2001-2013, we constructed a genetic distance-based transmission network using HIV-TRACE and examined the birth region of potential transmission partners in this network. Of 77,686 people, 12,064 (16%) were foreign born. Overall, 28% of foreign-born persons linked to at least one other person in the transmission network. Of potential transmission partners, 62% were born in the United States, 31% were born in the same region as the foreign-born person, and 7% were born in another region of the world. Most transmission partners of male foreign-born persons (63%) were born in the United States, whereas most transmission partners of female foreign-borns (57%) were born in their same world region. These finding suggests that a majority of HIV infections among foreign-born persons in our network occurred after immigrating to the United States. Efforts to prevent HIV infection among foreign-born persons in the United States should include information of the transmission networks in which these individuals acquire or transmit HIV to develop more targeted HIV prevention interventions.

  17. Dynamic analysis of spiral bevel and hypoid gears with high-order transmission errors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, J. J.; Shi, Z. H.; Zhang, H.; Li, T. X.; Nie, S. W.; Wei, B. Y.

    2018-03-01

    A new gear surface modification methodology based on curvature synthesis is proposed in this study to improve the transmission performance. The generated high-order transmission error (TE) for spiral bevel and hypoid gears is proved to reduce the vibration of geared-rotor system. The method is comprised of the following steps: Firstly, the fully conjugate gear surfaces with pinion flank modified according to the predesigned relative transmission movement are established based on curvature correction. Secondly, a 14-DOF geared-rotor system model considering backlash nonlinearity is used to evaluate the effect of different orders of TE on the dynamic performance a hypoid gear transmission system. For case study, numerical simulation is performed to illustrate the dynamic response of hypoid gear pair with parabolic, fourth-order and sixth-order transmission error derived. The results show that the parabolic TE curve has higher peak to peak amplitude compared to the other two types of TE. Thus, the excited dynamic response also shows larger amplitude at response peaks. Dynamic responses excited by fourth and sixth order TE also demonstrate distinct response components due to their different TE period which is expected to generate different sound quality or other acoustic characteristics.

  18. Dynamics of climate-based malaria transmission model with age-structured human population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Addawe, Joel; Pajimola, Aprimelle Kris

    2016-10-01

    In this paper, we proposed to study the dynamics of malaria transmission with periodic birth rate of the vector and an age-structure for the human population. The human population is divided into two compartments: pre-school (0-5 years) and the rest of the human population. We showed the existence of a disease-free equilibrium point. Using published epidemiological parameters, we use numerical simulations to show potential effect of climate change in the dynamics of age-structured malaria transmission. Numerical simulations suggest that there exists an asymptotically attractive solution that is positive and periodic.

  19. Engineering science research issues in high power density transmission dynamics for aerospace applications. [rotorcraft geared rotors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Singh, Rajendra; Houser, Donald R.

    1993-01-01

    This paper discusses analytical and experimental approaches that will be needed to understand dynamic, vibro-acoustic and design characteristics of high power density rotorcraft transmissions. Complexities associated with mathematical modeling of such systems will be discussed. An overview of research work planned during the next several years will be presented, with emphasis on engineering science issues such as gear contact mechanics, multi-mesh drive dynamics, parameter uncertainties, vibration transmission through bearings, and vibro-acoustic characteristics of geared rotor systems and housing-mount structures. A few examples of work in progress are cited.

  20. Telomere Dynamics and Homeostasis in a Transmissible Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Ujvari, Beata; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Taylor, Robyn; Pyecroft, Stephen; Flanagan, Cassandra; Gombert, Sara; Papenfuss, Anthony T.; Madsen, Thomas; Belov, Katherine

    2012-01-01

    Background Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD) is a unique clonal cancer that threatens the world's largest carnivorous marsupial, the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) with extinction. This transmissible cancer is passed between individual devils by cell implantation during social interactions. The tumour arose in a Schwann cell of a single devil over 15 years ago and since then has expanded clonally, without showing signs of replicative senescence; in stark contrast to a somatic cell that displays a finite capacity for replication, known as the “Hayflick limit”. Methodology/Principal Findings In the present study we investigate the role of telomere length, measured as Telomere Copy Number (TCN), and telomerase and shelterin gene expression, as well as telomerase activity in maintaining hyperproliferation of Devil Facial Tumour (DFT) cells. Our results show that DFT cells have short telomeres. DFTD TCN does not differ between geographic regions or between strains. However, TCN has increased over time. Unlimited cell proliferation is likely to have been achieved through the observed up-regulation of the catalytic subunit of telomerase (TERT) and concomitant activation of telomerase. Up-regulation of the central component of shelterin, the TRF1-intercating nuclear factor 2 (TINF2) provides DFT a mechanism for telomere length homeostasis. The higher expression of both TERT and TINF2 may also protect DFT cells from genomic instability and enhance tumour proliferation. Conclusions/Significance DFT cells appear to monitor and regulate the length of individual telomeres: i.e. shorter telomeres are elongated by up-regulation of telomerase-related genes; longer telomeres are protected from further elongation by members of the shelterin complex, which may explain the lack of spatial and strain variation in DFT telomere copy number. The observed longitudinal increase in gene expression in DFT tissue samples and telomerase activity in DFT cell lines might indicate a

  1. Telomere dynamics and homeostasis in a transmissible cancer.

    PubMed

    Ujvari, Beata; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Taylor, Robyn; Pyecroft, Stephen; Flanagan, Cassandra; Gombert, Sara; Papenfuss, Anthony T; Madsen, Thomas; Belov, Katherine

    2012-01-01

    Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD) is a unique clonal cancer that threatens the world's largest carnivorous marsupial, the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) with extinction. This transmissible cancer is passed between individual devils by cell implantation during social interactions. The tumour arose in a Schwann cell of a single devil over 15 years ago and since then has expanded clonally, without showing signs of replicative senescence; in stark contrast to a somatic cell that displays a finite capacity for replication, known as the "Hayflick limit". In the present study we investigate the role of telomere length, measured as Telomere Copy Number (TCN), and telomerase and shelterin gene expression, as well as telomerase activity in maintaining hyperproliferation of Devil Facial Tumour (DFT) cells. Our results show that DFT cells have short telomeres. DFTD TCN does not differ between geographic regions or between strains. However, TCN has increased over time. Unlimited cell proliferation is likely to have been achieved through the observed up-regulation of the catalytic subunit of telomerase (TERT) and concomitant activation of telomerase. Up-regulation of the central component of shelterin, the TRF1-intercating nuclear factor 2 (TINF2) provides DFT a mechanism for telomere length homeostasis. The higher expression of both TERT and TINF2 may also protect DFT cells from genomic instability and enhance tumour proliferation. DFT cells appear to monitor and regulate the length of individual telomeres: i.e. shorter telomeres are elongated by up-regulation of telomerase-related genes; longer telomeres are protected from further elongation by members of the shelterin complex, which may explain the lack of spatial and strain variation in DFT telomere copy number. The observed longitudinal increase in gene expression in DFT tissue samples and telomerase activity in DFT cell lines might indicate a selection for more stable tumours with higher proliferative potential.

  2. Reconstruction of Rift Valley fever transmission dynamics in Madagascar: estimation of force of infection from seroprevalence surveys using Bayesian modelling

    PubMed Central

    Olive, Marie-Marie; Grosbois, Vladimir; Tran, Annelise; Nomenjanahary, Lalaina Arivony; Rakotoarinoro, Mihaja; Andriamandimby, Soa-Fy; Rogier, Christophe; Heraud, Jean-Michel; Chevalier, Veronique

    2017-01-01

    The force of infection (FOI) is one of the key parameters describing the dynamics of transmission of vector-borne diseases. Following the occurrence of two major outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Madagascar in 1990–91 and 2008–09, recent studies suggest that the pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) transmission differed among the four main eco-regions (East, Highlands, North-West and South-West). Using Bayesian hierarchical models fitted to serological data from cattle of known age collected during two surveys (2008 and 2014), we estimated RVF FOI and described its variations over time and space in Madagascar. We show that the patterns of RVFV transmission strongly differed among the eco-regions. In the North-West and Highlands regions, these patterns were synchronous with a high intensity in mid-2007/mid-2008. In the East and South-West, the peaks of transmission were later, between mid-2008 and mid-2010. In the warm and humid northwestern eco-region favorable to mosquito populations, RVFV is probably transmitted all year-long at low-level during inter-epizootic period allowing its maintenance and being regularly introduced in the Highlands through ruminant trade. The RVF surveillance of animals of the northwestern region could be used as an early warning indicator of an increased risk of RVF outbreak in Madagascar. PMID:28051125

  3. Reconstruction of Rift Valley fever transmission dynamics in Madagascar: estimation of force of infection from seroprevalence surveys using Bayesian modelling.

    PubMed

    Olive, Marie-Marie; Grosbois, Vladimir; Tran, Annelise; Nomenjanahary, Lalaina Arivony; Rakotoarinoro, Mihaja; Andriamandimby, Soa-Fy; Rogier, Christophe; Heraud, Jean-Michel; Chevalier, Veronique

    2017-01-04

    The force of infection (FOI) is one of the key parameters describing the dynamics of transmission of vector-borne diseases. Following the occurrence of two major outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Madagascar in 1990-91 and 2008-09, recent studies suggest that the pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) transmission differed among the four main eco-regions (East, Highlands, North-West and South-West). Using Bayesian hierarchical models fitted to serological data from cattle of known age collected during two surveys (2008 and 2014), we estimated RVF FOI and described its variations over time and space in Madagascar. We show that the patterns of RVFV transmission strongly differed among the eco-regions. In the North-West and Highlands regions, these patterns were synchronous with a high intensity in mid-2007/mid-2008. In the East and South-West, the peaks of transmission were later, between mid-2008 and mid-2010. In the warm and humid northwestern eco-region favorable to mosquito populations, RVFV is probably transmitted all year-long at low-level during inter-epizootic period allowing its maintenance and being regularly introduced in the Highlands through ruminant trade. The RVF surveillance of animals of the northwestern region could be used as an early warning indicator of an increased risk of RVF outbreak in Madagascar.

  4. Transmission intensity and drug resistance in malaria population dynamics: implications for climate change.

    PubMed

    Artzy-Randrup, Yael; Alonso, David; Pascual, Mercedes

    2010-10-26

    Although the spread of drug resistance and the influence of climate change on malaria are most often considered separately, these factors have the potential to interact through altered levels of transmission intensity. The influence of transmission intensity on the evolution of drug resistance has been addressed in theoretical studies from a population genetics' perspective; less is known however on how epidemiological dynamics at the population level modulates this influence. We ask from a theoretical perspective, whether population dynamics can explain non-trivial, non-monotonic, patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity, and, if so, under what conditions. We then address the implications of warmer temperatures in an East African highland, where, as in other similar regions at the altitudinal edge of malaria's distribution, there has been a pronounced increase of cases from the 1970s to the 1990s. Our theoretical analyses, with a transmission model that includes different levels of immunity, demonstrate that an increase in transmission beyond a threshold can lead to a decrease in drug resistance, as previously shown, but that a second threshold may occur and lead to the re-establishment of drug resistance. Estimates of the increase in transmission intensity from the 1970s to the 1990s for the Kenyan time series, obtained by fitting the two-stage version of the model with an explicit representation of vector dynamics, suggest that warmer temperatures are likely to have moved the system towards the first threshold, and in so doing, to have promoted the faster spread of drug resistance. Climate change and drug resistance can interact and need not be considered as alternative explanations for trends in disease incidence in this region. Non-monotonic patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity similar to those described as the 'valley phenomenon' for Uganda can result from epidemiological dynamics but under poorly understood assumptions.

  5. Dynamics of superconducting qubits in open transmission lines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juan Jose, Garcia-Ripoll; Zueco, David; Porras, Diego; Peropadre, Borja

    2014-03-01

    The time and space resolved dynamics of a superconducting qubit with an Ohmic coupling to propagating 1D photons is studied, from weak coupling to the ultrastrong coupling regime (USC). A nonperturbative study based on Matrix Product States (MPS) shows the following results: (i) The ground state of the combined systems contains excitations of both the qubit and the surrounding bosonic field. (ii) An initially excited qubit equilibrates through spontaneous emission to a state, which under certain conditions, is locally close to that ground state, both in the qubit and the field. (iii) The resonances of the combined qubit-photon system match those of the spontaneous emission process and also the predictions of the adiabatic renormalisation. These results set the foundations for future studies and engineering of the interactions between superconducting qubits and propagating photons, as well as the design of photon-photon interactions based on artificial materials built from these qubits.

  6. Transmission blocking effects of neem (Azadirachta indica) seed kernel limonoids on Plasmodium berghei early sporogonic development.

    PubMed

    Tapanelli, Sofia; Chianese, Giuseppina; Lucantoni, Leonardo; Yerbanga, Rakiswendé Serge; Habluetzel, Annette; Taglialatela-Scafati, Orazio

    2016-10-01

    Azadirachta indica, known as neem tree and traditionally called "nature's drug store" makes part of several African pharmacopeias and is widely used for the preparation of homemade remedies and commercial preparations against various illnesses, including malaria. Employing a bio-guided fractionation approach, molecules obtained from A. indica ripe and green fruit kernels were tested for activity against early sporogonic stages of Plasmodium berghei, the parasite stages that develop in the mosquito mid gut after an infective blood meal. The limonoid deacetylnimbin (3) was identified as one the most active compounds of the extract, with a considerably higher activity compared to that of the close analogue nimbin (2). Pure deacetylnimbin (3) appeared to interfere with transmissible Plasmodium stages at a similar potency as azadirachtin A. Considering its higher thermal and chemical stability, deacetylnimbin could represent a suitable alternative to azadirachtin A for the preparation of transmission blocking antimalarials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Dynamically tunable graphene/dielectric photonic crystal transmission lines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williamson, Ian; Mousavi, S. Hossein; Wang, Zheng

    2015-03-01

    It is well known that graphene supports plasmonic modes with high field confinement and lower losses when compared to conventional metals. Additionally, graphene features a highly tunable conductivity through which the plasmon dispersion can be modulated. Over the years these qualities have inspired a wide range of applications for graphene in the THz and infrared regimes. In this presentation we theoretically demonstrate a graphene parallel plate waveguide (PPWG) that sandwiches a 2D photonic crystal slab. The marriage of these two geometries offers a large two dimensional band gap that can be dynamically tuned over a very broad bandwidth. Our device operates in the low-THz band where the graphene PPWG supports a quasi-TEM mode with a relatively flat attenuation. Unlike conventional photonic crystal slabs, the quasi-TEM nature of the graphene PPWG mode allows the slab thickness to be less than 1/10 of the photonic crystal lattice constant. These features offer up a wealth of opportunities, including tunable metamaterials with a possible platform for large band gaps in 3D structures through tiling and stacking. Additionally, the geometry provides a platform for tunable defect cavities without needing three dimensional periodicity.

  8. Open-source framework for power system transmission and distribution dynamics co-simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Renke; Fan, Rui; Daily, Jeff

    The promise of the smart grid entails more interactions between the transmission and distribution networks, and there is an immediate need for tools to provide the comprehensive modelling and simulation required to integrate operations at both transmission and distribution levels. Existing electromagnetic transient simulators can perform simulations with integration of transmission and distribution systems, but the computational burden is high for large-scale system analysis. For transient stability analysis, currently there are only separate tools for simulating transient dynamics of the transmission and distribution systems. In this paper, we introduce an open source co-simulation framework “Framework for Network Co-Simulation” (FNCS), togethermore » with the decoupled simulation approach that links existing transmission and distribution dynamic simulators through FNCS. FNCS is a middleware interface and framework that manages the interaction and synchronization of the transmission and distribution simulators. Preliminary testing results show the validity and capability of the proposed open-source co-simulation framework and the decoupled co-simulation methodology.« less

  9. Family Income Dynamics, Early Childhood Education and Care, and Early Child Behavior Problems in Norway

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zachrisson, Henrik D.; Dearing, Eric

    2015-01-01

    The sociopolitical context of Norway includes low poverty rates and universal access to subsidized and regulated Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC). In this context, the association between family income dynamics and changes in early child behavior problems was investigated, as well as whether high-quality ECEC buffers children from the…

  10. Multi-Body Dynamic Contact Analysis. Tool for Transmission Design SBIR Phase II Final Report

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-04-01

    shapes and natural frequencies were computed in COSMIC NASTRAN, and were validated against the published experimental modal analysis [17]. • Using...COSMIC NASTRAN via modal superposition. • Results from the structural analysis (mode shapes or forced response) were converted into IDEAS universal...ARMY RESEARCH LABORATORY Multi-body Dynamic Contact Analysis Tool for Transmission Design SBIR Phase II Final Report by

  11. Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs.

    PubMed

    Springer, Andrea; Kappeler, Peter M; Nunn, Charles L

    2017-05-01

    Social networks provide an established tool to implement heterogeneous contact structures in epidemiological models. Dynamic temporal changes in contact structure and ranging behaviour of wildlife may impact disease dynamics. A consensus has yet to emerge, however, concerning the conditions in which network dynamics impact model outcomes, as compared to static approximations that average contact rates over longer time periods. Furthermore, as many pathogens can be transmitted both environmentally and via close contact, it is important to investigate the relative influence of both transmission routes in real-world populations. Here, we use empirically derived networks from a population of wild primates, Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi), and simulated networks to investigate pathogen spread in dynamic vs. static social networks. First, we constructed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model of Cryptosporidium spread in wild Verreaux's sifakas. We incorporated social and environmental transmission routes and parameterized the model for two different climatic seasons. Second, we used simulated networks and greater variation in epidemiological parameters to investigate the conditions in which dynamic networks produce larger outbreak sizes than static networks. We found that average outbreak size of Cryptosporidium infections in sifakas was larger when the disease was introduced in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by an increase in home range overlap towards the end of the dry season. Regardless of season, dynamic networks always produced larger average outbreak sizes than static networks. Larger outbreaks in dynamic models based on simulated networks occurred especially when the probability of transmission and recovery were low. Variation in tie strength in the dynamic networks also had a major impact on outbreak size, while network modularity had a weaker influence than epidemiological parameters that determine transmission and recovery

  12. The Characteristics of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Transmission Dynamics in South Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Yunhwan; Lee, Sunmi; Chu, Chaeshin; Choe, Seoyun; Hong, Saeme; Shin, Youngseo

    2016-02-01

    The outbreak of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was one of the major events in South Korea in 2015. In particular, this study pays attention to formulating a mathematical model for MERS transmission dynamics and estimating transmission rates. Incidence data of MERS-CoV from the government authority was analyzed for the first aim and a mathematical model was built and analyzed for the second aim of the study. A mathematical model for MERS-CoV transmission dynamics is used to estimate the transmission rates in two periods due to the implementation of intensive interventions. Using the estimates of the transmission rates, the basic reproduction number was estimated in two periods. Due to the superspreader, the basic reproduction number was very large in the first period; however, the basic reproduction number of the second period has reduced significantly after intensive interventions. It turned out to be the intensive isolation and quarantine interventions that were the most critical factors that prevented the spread of the MERS outbreak. The results are expected to be useful to devise more efficient intervention strategies in the future.

  13. Cell transmission model of dynamic assignment for urban rail transit networks.

    PubMed

    Xu, Guangming; Zhao, Shuo; Shi, Feng; Zhang, Feilian

    2017-01-01

    For urban rail transit network, the space-time flow distribution can play an important role in evaluating and optimizing the space-time resource allocation. For obtaining the space-time flow distribution without the restriction of schedules, a dynamic assignment problem is proposed based on the concept of continuous transmission. To solve the dynamic assignment problem, the cell transmission model is built for urban rail transit networks. The priority principle, queuing process, capacity constraints and congestion effects are considered in the cell transmission mechanism. Then an efficient method is designed to solve the shortest path for an urban rail network, which decreases the computing cost for solving the cell transmission model. The instantaneous dynamic user optimal state can be reached with the method of successive average. Many evaluation indexes of passenger flow can be generated, to provide effective support for the optimization of train schedules and the capacity evaluation for urban rail transit network. Finally, the model and its potential application are demonstrated via two numerical experiments using a small-scale network and the Beijing Metro network.

  14. Detection of allosteric signal transmission by information-theoretic analysis of protein dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Pandini, Alessandro; Fornili, Arianna; Fraternali, Franca; Kleinjung, Jens

    2012-01-01

    Allostery offers a highly specific way to modulate protein function. Therefore, understanding this mechanism is of increasing interest for protein science and drug discovery. However, allosteric signal transmission is difficult to detect experimentally and to model because it is often mediated by local structural changes propagating along multiple pathways. To address this, we developed a method to identify communication pathways by an information-theoretical analysis of molecular dynamics simulations. Signal propagation was described as information exchange through a network of correlated local motions, modeled as transitions between canonical states of protein fragments. The method was used to describe allostery in two-component regulatory systems. In particular, the transmission from the allosteric site to the signaling surface of the receiver domain NtrC was shown to be mediated by a layer of hub residues. The location of hubs preferentially connected to the allosteric site was found in close agreement with key residues experimentally identified as involved in the signal transmission. The comparison with the networks of the homologues CheY and FixJ highlighted similarities in their dynamics. In particular, we showed that a preorganized network of fragment connections between the allosteric and functional sites exists already in the inactive state of all three proteins.—Pandini, A., Fornili, A., Fraternali, F., Kleinjung, J. Detection of allosteric signal transmission by information-theoretic analysis of protein dynamics. PMID:22071506

  15. The dynamics, transmission, and population impacts of avian malaria in native hawaiian birds: A modeling approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuel, M.D.; Hobbelen, P.H.F.; Decastro, F.; Ahumada, J.A.; Lapointe, D.A.; Atkinson, C.T.; Woodworth, B.L.; Hart, P.J.; Duffy, D.C.

    2011-01-01

    We developed an epidemiological model of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) across an altitudinal gradient on the island of Hawaii that includes the dynamics of the host, vector, and parasite. This introduced mosquito-borne disease is hypothesized to have contributed to extinctions and major shifts in the altitudinal distribution of highly susceptible native forest birds. Our goal was to better understand how biotic and abiotic factors influence the intensity of malaria transmission and impact on susceptible populations of native Hawaiian forest birds. Our model illustrates key patterns in the malaria-forest bird system: high malaria transmission in low-elevation forests with minor seasonal or annual variation in infection;episodic transmission in mid-elevation forests with site-to-site, seasonal, and annual variation depending on mosquito dynamics;and disease refugia in high-elevation forests with only slight risk of infection during summer. These infection patterns are driven by temperature and rainfall effects on parasite incubation period and mosquito dynamics across an elevational gradient and the availability of larval habitat, especially in mid-elevation forests. The results from our model suggest that disease is likely a key factor in causing population decline or restricting the distribution of many susceptible Hawaiian species and preventing the recovery of other vulnerable species. The model also provides a framework for the evaluation of factors influencing disease transmission and alternative disease control programs, and to evaluate the impact of climate change on disease cycles and bird populations. ??2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

  16. Understanding the transmission dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus using multiple time series and nested models.

    PubMed

    White, L J; Mandl, J N; Gomes, M G M; Bodley-Tickell, A T; Cane, P A; Perez-Brena, P; Aguilar, J C; Siqueira, M M; Portes, S A; Straliotto, S M; Waris, M; Nokes, D J; Medley, G F

    2007-09-01

    The nature and role of re-infection and partial immunity are likely to be important determinants of the transmission dynamics of human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV). We propose a single model structure that captures four possible host responses to infection and subsequent reinfection: partial susceptibility, altered infection duration, reduced infectiousness and temporary immunity (which might be partial). The magnitude of these responses is determined by four homotopy parameters, and by setting some of these parameters to extreme values we generate a set of eight nested, deterministic transmission models. In order to investigate hRSV transmission dynamics, we applied these models to incidence data from eight international locations. Seasonality is included as cyclic variation in transmission. Parameters associated with the natural history of the infection were assumed to be independent of geographic location, while others, such as those associated with seasonality, were assumed location specific. Models incorporating either of the two extreme assumptions for immunity (none or solid and lifelong) were unable to reproduce the observed dynamics. Model fits with either waning or partial immunity to disease or both were visually comparable. The best fitting structure was a lifelong partial immunity to both disease and infection. Observed patterns were reproduced by stochastic simulations using the parameter values estimated from the deterministic models.

  17. The Transmission Dynamics and Control of Cholera in Haiti: An Epidemic Model

    PubMed Central

    Andrews, Jason R.; Basu, Sanjay

    2011-01-01

    Background Haiti is experiencing a cholera epidemic. Official epidemic projections, to date, have failed to incorporate existing disease trends or patterns of transmission, while proposed interventions have been debated without comparative estimates of their impact. Methods We designed mathematical models of cholera transmission and fit them to Haiti’s provincial incidence data. We then simulated future epidemic trajectories to estimate the impact of clean water, vaccination and enhanced antibiotic distribution programs. Findings The natural dynamics of cholera are expected to produce a prevalence decline by mid-January 2011. Between March and December 2011, we project 779,000 (95% CI: 599,000–914,000) cases and 11,100 (95% CI: 7,300–17,400) deaths from cholera in Haiti, over half of which would be expected to occur in the Artibonite and Oueste provinces. If contaminated water consumption were reduced by 1% per week, as per current efforts, we expect 105,000 cases (95% CI: 88,000–116,000) and 1,500 (95% CI: 1,100–2,300) deaths to be averted. A plan to vaccinate 10% of the population beginning on March 1 would be predicted to avert 63,000 (95% CI: 48,000–78,000) cases and 900 (95% CI: 600–1,500) deaths over the same period. By contrast, the proposal to extend antibiotic use to all patients with severe dehydration and half of patients with moderate dehydration would be expected to avert 9,000 (95% CI: 8,000–10,000) cases and 1,300 (95% CI: 900–2,000) deaths. Interpretation A decline in cholera prevalence in early 2011 is part of the natural history of the epidemic, and should not be interpreted as reflective of the success of human interventions. Vibrio cholerae in Haiti is expected to produce at least 750,000 cholera cases by November 2011, substantially higher than official estimates currently used for resource allocation. In addition to clean water provision and vaccination, expanded access to antibiotics may avert thousands of deaths. PMID

  18. A new, ultra-low latency data transmission protocol for Earthquake Early Warning Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, P.; Hicks, S. P.; McGowan, M.

    2016-12-01

    One measure used to assess the performance of Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) is the delay time between earthquake origin and issued alert. EEWS latency is dependent on a number of sources (e.g. P-wave propagation, digitisation, transmission, receiver processing, triggering, event declaration). Many regional seismic networks use the SEEDlink protocol; however, packet size is fixed to 512-byte miniSEED records, resulting in transmission latencies of >0.5 s. Data packetisation is seen as one of the main sources of delays in EEWS (Brown et al., 2011). Optimising data-logger and telemetry configurations is a cost-effective strategy to improve EEWS alert times (Behr et al., 2015). Digitisers with smaller, selectable packets can result in faster alerts (Sokos et al., 2016). We propose a new seismic protocol for regional seismic networks benefiting low-latency applications such as EEWS. The protocol, based on Güralp's existing GDI-link format is an efficient and flexible method to exchange data between seismic stations and data centers for a range of network configurations. The main principle is to stream data sample-by-sample instead of fixed-length packets to minimise transmission latency. Self-adaptive packetisation with compression maximises available telemetry bandwidth. Highly flexible metadata fields within GDI-link are compatible with existing miniSEED definitions. Data is sent as integers or floats, supporting a wide range of data formats, including discrete parameters such as Pd & τC for on-site earthquake early warning. Other advantages include: streaming station state-of-health information, instrument control, support of backfilling and fail-over strategies during telemetry outages. Based on tests carried out on the Güralp Minimus data-logger, we show our new protocol can reduce transmission latency to as low as 1 ms. The low-latency protocol is currently being implemented with common processing packages. The results of these tests will help to

  19. Transmission Dynamics of Rhodesian Sleeping Sickness at the Interface of Wildlife and Livestock Areas.

    PubMed

    Auty, Harriet; Morrison, Liam J; Torr, Stephen J; Lord, Jennifer

    2016-08-01

    Many wilderness areas of East and Southern Africa are foci for Rhodesian sleeping sickness, a fatal zoonotic disease caused by trypanosomes transmitted by tsetse flies. Although transmission in these foci is traditionally driven by wildlife reservoirs, rising human and livestock populations may increase the role of livestock in transmission cycles. Deciphering transmission dynamics at wildlife and livestock interface areas is key to developing appropriate control. Data are lacking for key parameters, including host distributions, tsetse density, and mortality rates, and the relative roles of livestock and wildlife as hosts in fragmented habitats, limiting the development of meaningful models to assist in the assessment and implementation of control strategies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Network information analysis reveals risk perception transmission in a behaviour-influenza dynamics system.

    PubMed

    Liao, C-M; You, S-H; Cheng, Y-H

    2015-01-01

    Influenza poses a significant public health burden worldwide. Understanding how and to what extent people would change their behaviour in response to influenza outbreaks is critical for formulating public health policies. We incorporated the information-theoretic framework into a behaviour-influenza (BI) transmission dynamics system in order to understand the effects of individual behavioural change on influenza epidemics. We showed that information transmission of risk perception played a crucial role in the spread of health-seeking behaviour throughout influenza epidemics. Here a network BI model provides a new approach for understanding the risk perception spread and human behavioural change during disease outbreaks. Our study allows simultaneous consideration of epidemiological, psychological, and social factors as predictors of individual perception rates in behaviour-disease transmission systems. We suggest that a monitoring system with precise information on risk perception should be constructed to effectively promote health behaviours in preparation for emerging disease outbreaks.

  1. Does interspecific competition have a moderating effect on Taenia solium transmission dynamics in Southeast Asia?

    PubMed

    Conlan, James V; Vongxay, Khamphouth; Fenwick, Stanley; Blacksell, Stuart D; Thompson, R C Andrew

    2009-09-01

    It is well understood that sociocultural practices strongly influence Taenia solium transmission; however, the extent to which interspecific parasite competition moderates Taenia transmission has yet to be determined. This is certainly the case in Southeast Asia where T. solium faces competition in both the definitive host (people) and the intermediate host (pigs). In people, adult worms of T. solium, T. saginata and T. asiatica compete through density-dependent crowding mechanisms. In pigs, metacestodes of T. solium, T. hydatigena and T. asiatica compete through density-dependent immune-mediated interactions. Here, we describe the biological and epidemiological implications of Taenia competition and propose that interspecific competition has a moderating effect on the transmission dynamics of T. solium in the region. Furthermore, we argue that this competitive ecological scenario should be considered in future research and surveillance activities examining T. solium cysticercosis and taeniasis in Southeast Asia.

  2. Modeling social transmission dynamics of unhealthy behaviors for evaluating prevention and treatment interventions on childhood obesity.

    PubMed

    Frerichs, Leah M; Araz, Ozgur M; Huang, Terry T-K

    2013-01-01

    Research evidence indicates that obesity has spread through social networks, but lever points for interventions based on overlapping networks are not well studied. The objective of our research was to construct and parameterize a system dynamics model of the social transmission of behaviors through adult and youth influence in order to explore hypotheses and identify plausible lever points for future childhood obesity intervention research. Our objectives were: (1) to assess the sensitivity of childhood overweight and obesity prevalence to peer and adult social transmission rates, and (2) to test the effect of combinations of prevention and treatment interventions on the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity. To address the first objective, we conducted two-way sensitivity analyses of adult-to-child and child-to-child social transmission in relation to childhood overweight and obesity prevalence. For the second objective, alternative combinations of prevention and treatment interventions were tested by varying model parameters of social transmission and weight loss behavior rates. Our results indicated child overweight and obesity prevalence might be slightly more sensitive to the same relative change in the adult-to-child compared to the child-to-child social transmission rate. In our simulations, alternatives with treatment alone, compared to prevention alone, reduced the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity more after 10 years (1.2-1.8% and 0.2-1.0% greater reduction when targeted at children and adults respectively). Also, as the impact of adult interventions on children was increased, the rank of six alternatives that included adults became better (i.e., resulting in lower 10 year childhood overweight and obesity prevalence) than alternatives that only involved children. The findings imply that social transmission dynamics should be considered when designing both prevention and treatment intervention approaches. Finally, targeting adults may

  3. Modeling Social Transmission Dynamics of Unhealthy Behaviors for Evaluating Prevention and Treatment Interventions on Childhood Obesity

    PubMed Central

    Frerichs, Leah M.; Araz, Ozgur M.; Huang, Terry T. – K.

    2013-01-01

    Research evidence indicates that obesity has spread through social networks, but lever points for interventions based on overlapping networks are not well studied. The objective of our research was to construct and parameterize a system dynamics model of the social transmission of behaviors through adult and youth influence in order to explore hypotheses and identify plausible lever points for future childhood obesity intervention research. Our objectives were: (1) to assess the sensitivity of childhood overweight and obesity prevalence to peer and adult social transmission rates, and (2) to test the effect of combinations of prevention and treatment interventions on the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity. To address the first objective, we conducted two-way sensitivity analyses of adult-to-child and child-to-child social transmission in relation to childhood overweight and obesity prevalence. For the second objective, alternative combinations of prevention and treatment interventions were tested by varying model parameters of social transmission and weight loss behavior rates. Our results indicated child overweight and obesity prevalence might be slightly more sensitive to the same relative change in the adult-to-child compared to the child-to-child social transmission rate. In our simulations, alternatives with treatment alone, compared to prevention alone, reduced the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity more after 10 years (1.2–1.8% and 0.2–1.0% greater reduction when targeted at children and adults respectively). Also, as the impact of adult interventions on children was increased, the rank of six alternatives that included adults became better (i.e., resulting in lower 10 year childhood overweight and obesity prevalence) than alternatives that only involved children. The findings imply that social transmission dynamics should be considered when designing both prevention and treatment intervention approaches. Finally, targeting adults

  4. Transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease and intervention effectiveness in Sierra Leone

    PubMed Central

    Fang, Li-Qun; Yang, Yang; Jiang, Jia-Fu; Yao, Hong-Wu; Kargbo, David; Li, Xin-Lou; Jiang, Bao-Gui; Kargbo, Brima; Tong, Yi-Gang; Wang, Ya-Wei; Liu, Kun; Kamara, Abdul; Dafae, Foday; Kanu, Alex; Jiang, Rui-Ruo; Sun, Ye; Sun, Ruo-Xi; Chen, Wan-Jun; Ma, Mai-Juan; Dean, Natalie E.; Thomas, Harold; Longini, Ira M.; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Cao, Wu-Chun

    2016-01-01

    Sierra Leone is the most severely affected country by an unprecedented outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa. Although successfully contained, the transmission dynamics of EVD and the impact of interventions in the country remain unclear. We established a database of confirmed and suspected EVD cases from May 2014 to September 2015 in Sierra Leone and mapped the spatiotemporal distribution of cases at the chiefdom level. A Poisson transmission model revealed that the transmissibility at the chiefdom level, estimated as the average number of secondary infections caused by a patient per week, was reduced by 43% [95% confidence interval (CI): 30%, 52%] after October 2014, when the strategic plan of the United Nations Mission for Emergency Ebola Response was initiated, and by 65% (95% CI: 57%, 71%) after the end of December 2014, when 100% case isolation and safe burials were essentially achieved, both compared with before October 2014. Population density, proximity to Ebola treatment centers, cropland coverage, and atmospheric temperature were associated with EVD transmission. The household secondary attack rate (SAR) was estimated to be 0.059 (95% CI: 0.050, 0.070) for the overall outbreak. The household SAR was reduced by 82%, from 0.093 to 0.017, after the nationwide campaign to achieve 100% case isolation and safe burials had been conducted. This study provides a complete overview of the transmission dynamics of the 2014−2015 EVD outbreak in Sierra Leone at both chiefdom and household levels. The interventions implemented in Sierra Leone seem effective in containing the epidemic, particularly in interrupting household transmission. PMID:27035948

  5. The Epidemiological Characteristics and Dynamic Transmission of Dengue in China, 2013

    PubMed Central

    lu, Liang; Bi, Peng; Lv, Ming; Liu, Qiyong

    2016-01-01

    Background There was a dengue epidemic in several regions of China in 2013. No study has explored the dynamics of dengue transmission between different geographical locations with dengue outbreaks in China. The purpose of the study is to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and to explore the dynamic transmission of dengue in China, 2013. Methodology and Principal Findings Records of dengue cases of 2013 were obtained from the China Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Full E-gene sequences of dengue virus detected from the outbreak regions of China were download from GenBank. Geographical Information System and heatmaps were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics. Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic and Bayesian phylogeographic analyses were conducted to explore the dengue dynamic transmission. Yunnan Province and Guangdong Province had the highest imported cases in the 2013 epidemic. In the locations with local dengue transmission, most of imported cases occurred from June to November 2013 while local dengue cases developed from July to December, 2013. There were significant variations for the incidences of dengue, in terms of age distributions, among different geographic locations. However, gender differences were identified in Guangzhou, Foshan and Xishuangbanna. DENV 1–3 were detected in all locations with the disease outbreaks. Some genotypes were detected in more than one locations and more than one genotypes have been detected in several locations. The dengue viruses introduced to outbreak areas were predominantly from Southeast Asia. In Guangdong Province, the phylogeographical results indicated that dengue viruses of DENV 1 were transmitted to neighboring cities Foshan and Zhongshan from Guangzhou city, and then transmitted to Jiangmen city. The virus in DENV 3 was introduced to Guangzhou city, Guangdong Province from Xishuangbanna prefecture, Yunnan Province. Conclusions Repeated dengue virus introductions from Southeast Asia and

  6. Incorporating heterogeneity into the transmission dynamics of a waterborne disease model.

    PubMed

    Collins, O C; Govinder, K S

    2014-09-07

    We formulate a mathematical model that captures the essential dynamics of waterborne disease transmission to study the effects of heterogeneity on the spread of the disease. The effects of heterogeneity on some important mathematical features of the model such as the basic reproduction number, type reproduction number and final outbreak size are analysed accordingly. We conduct a real-world application of this model by using it to investigate the heterogeneity in transmission in the recent cholera outbreak in Haiti. By evaluating the measure of heterogeneity between the administrative departments in Haiti, we discover a significant difference in the dynamics of the cholera outbreak between the departments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Genomics reveals historic and contemporary transmission dynamics of a bacterial disease among wildlife and livestock

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kamath, Pauline L.; Foster, Jeffrey T.; Drees, Kevin P.; Luikart, Gordon; Quance, Christine; Anderson, Neil J.; Clarke, P. Ryan; Cole, Eric K.; Drew, Mark L.; Edwards, William H.; Rhyan, Jack C.; Treanor, John J.; Wallen, Rick L.; White, Patrick J.; Robbe-Austerman, Suelee; Cross, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    Whole-genome sequencing has provided fundamental insights into infectious disease epidemiology, but has rarely been used for examining transmission dynamics of a bacterial pathogen in wildlife. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), outbreaks of brucellosis have increased in cattle along with rising seroprevalence in elk. Here we use a genomic approach to examine Brucella abortus evolution, cross-species transmission and spatial spread in the GYE. We find that brucellosis was introduced into wildlife in this region at least five times. The diffusion rate varies among Brucella lineages (B3 to 8 km per year) and over time. We also estimate 12 host transitions from bison to elk, and 5 from elk to bison. Our results support the notion that free-ranging elk are currently a self-sustaining brucellosis reservoir and the source of livestock infections, and that control measures in bison are unlikely to affect the dynamics of unrelated strains circulating in nearby elk populations.

  8. Vector-virus interactions and transmission dynamics of West Nile virus.

    PubMed

    Ciota, Alexander T; Kramer, Laura D

    2013-12-09

    West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus; Flaviviridae) is the cause of the most widespread arthropod-borne viral disease in the world and the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease ever observed. Mosquito-borne outbreaks are influenced by intrinsic (e.g., vector and viral genetics, vector and host competence, vector life-history traits) and extrinsic (e.g., temperature, rainfall, human land use) factors that affect virus activity and mosquito biology in complex ways. The concept of vectorial capacity integrates these factors to address interactions of the virus with the arthropod host, leading to a clearer understanding of their complex interrelationships, how they affect transmission of vector-borne disease, and how they impact human health. Vertebrate factors including host competence, population dynamics, and immune status also affect transmission dynamics. The complexity of these interactions are further exacerbated by the fact that not only can divergent hosts differentially alter the virus, but the virus also can affect both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts in ways that significantly alter patterns of virus transmission. This chapter concentrates on selected components of the virus-vector-vertebrate interrelationship, focusing specifically on how interactions between vector, virus, and environment shape the patterns and intensity of WNV transmission.

  9. Vector-Virus Interactions and Transmission Dynamics of West Nile Virus

    PubMed Central

    Ciota, Alexander T.; Kramer, Laura D.

    2013-01-01

    West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus; Flaviviridae) is the cause of the most widespread arthropod-borne viral disease in the world and the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease ever observed. Mosquito-borne outbreaks are influenced by intrinsic (e.g., vector and viral genetics, vector and host competence, vector life-history traits) and extrinsic (e.g., temperature, rainfall, human land use) factors that affect virus activity and mosquito biology in complex ways. The concept of vectorial capacity integrates these factors to address interactions of the virus with the arthropod host, leading to a clearer understanding of their complex interrelationships, how they affect transmission of vector-borne disease, and how they impact human health. Vertebrate factors including host competence, population dynamics, and immune status also affect transmission dynamics. The complexity of these interactions are further exacerbated by the fact that not only can divergent hosts differentially alter the virus, but the virus also can affect both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts in ways that significantly alter patterns of virus transmission. This chapter concentrates on selected components of the virus-vector-vertebrate interrelationship, focusing specifically on how interactions between vector, virus, and environment shape the patterns and intensity of WNV transmission. PMID:24351794

  10. Effects of gear box vibration and mass imbalance on the dynamics of multistage gear transmission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choy, F. K.; Tu, Y. K.; Zakrajsek, J. J.; Townsend, D. P.

    1991-01-01

    The dynamic behavior of multistage gear transmission system, with the effects of gear-box-induced vibrations and rotor mass-imbalances is analyzed. The model method, using undamped frequencies and planar mode shapes, is used to reduce the degree-of-freedom of the system. The various rotor-bearing stages as well as lateral and torsional vibrations of each individual stage are coupled through localized gear-mesh-tooth interactions. Gear-box vibrations are coupled to the gear stage dynamics through bearing support forces. Transient and steady state dynamics of lateral and torsional vibrations of the geared system are examined in both time and frequency domain. A typical three-staged geared system is used as an example. Effects of mass-imbalance and gear box vibrations on the system dynamic behavior are presented in terms of modal excitation functions for both lateral and torsional vibrations. Operational characteristics and conclusions are drawn from the results presented.

  11. The influence of engine/transmission/governor on tilting proprotor aircraft dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, W.

    1975-01-01

    An analytical model is developed for the dynamics of a tilting proprotor aircraft engine and drive train, including a rotor speed governor and interconnect shaft. The dynamic stability of a proprotor and cantilever wing is calculated, including the engine-transmission-governor model. It is concluded that the rotor behaves much as if windmilling as far as its dynamic behavior is concerned, with some influence of the turboshaft engine inertia and damping. The interconnect shaft has a significant influence on the antisymmetric dynamics of proprotor aircraft. The proprotor aerodynamics model is extended to include reverse flow, and a refinement on the method used to calculate the kinematic pitch-bending coupling of the blade is developed.

  12. Analysis of longitudinal multivariate outcome data from couples cohort studies: application to HPV transmission dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Kong, Xiangrong; Wang, Mei-Cheng; Gray, Ronald

    2014-01-01

    We consider a specific situation of correlated data where multiple outcomes are repeatedly measured on each member of a couple. Such multivariate longitudinal data from couples may exhibit multi-faceted correlations which can be further complicated if there are polygamous partnerships. An example is data from cohort studies on human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission dynamics in heterosexual couples. HPV is a common sexually transmitted disease with 14 known oncogenic types causing anogenital cancers. The binary outcomes on the multiple types measured in couples over time may introduce inter-type, intra-couple, and temporal correlations. Simple analysis using generalized estimating equations or random effects models lacks interpretability and cannot fully utilize the available information. We developed a hybrid modeling strategy using Markov transition models together with pairwise composite likelihood for analyzing such data. The method can be used to identify risk factors associated with HPV transmission and persistence, estimate difference in risks between male-to-female and female-to-male HPV transmission, compare type-specific transmission risks within couples, and characterize the inter-type and intra-couple associations. Applying the method to HPV couple data collected in a Ugandan male circumcision (MC) trial, we assessed the effect of MC and the role of gender on risks of HPV transmission and persistence. PMID:26195849

  13. A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination.

    PubMed

    Watson, Conall H; Edmunds, W John

    2015-06-19

    Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decision making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health burden. Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination suggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncertainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity. Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to WHO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection. Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-setting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no

  14. Comparative dynamics, seasonality in transmission, and predictability of childhood infections in Mexico

    PubMed Central

    Mahmud, A. S.; Metcalf, C. J. E.; Grenfell, B. T.

    2018-01-01

    The seasonality and periodicity of infections, and the mechanisms underlying observed dynamics, can have implications for control efforts. This is particularly true for acute childhood infections. Among these, the dynamics of measles is the best understood and has been extensively studied, most notably in the UK prior to the start of vaccination. Less is known about the dynamics of other childhood diseases, particularly outside Europe and the US. In this paper, we leverage a unique dataset to examine the epidemiology of six childhood infections - measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, scarlet fever and pertussis - across 32 states in Mexico from 1985 to 2007. This dataset provides us with a spatiotemporal probe into the dynamics of six common childhood infections, and allows us to compare them in the same setting over the same time period. We examine three key epidemiological characteristics of these infections – the age profile of infections, spatiotemporal dynamics, and seasonality in transmission - and compare with predictions from existing theory and past findings. Our analysis reveals interesting epidemiological differences between the six pathogens, and variations across space. We find signatures of term time forcing (reduced transmission during the summer) for measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, and scarlet fever; for pertussis, a lack of term time forcing could not be rejected. PMID:27873563

  15. Exploring Migratory Dynamics on HIV Transmission: The Case of Mexicans in New York City and Puebla, Mexico

    PubMed Central

    Guilamo-Ramos, Vincent; McCarthy, Katharine; Muñoz-Laboy, Miguel A.; de Lourdes Rosas López, Maria

    2014-01-01

    Migration and population movement are increasingly viewed as important factors associated with HIV transmission risk. With growing awareness of the potential impact of migration on HIV transmission, several perspectives have emerged that posit differing dynamics of risk. We considered available data on the role of migration on HIV transmission among Mexican migrants in New York City and Puebla, Mexico. Specifically, we examined 3 distinct models of migratory dynamics of HIV transmission—namely, the structural model, the local contextual model, and the interplay model. In doing so, we reframed current public health perspectives on the role of migration on HIV transmission. PMID:24825203

  16. HIV-1 diversity, transmission dynamics and primary drug resistance in Angola.

    PubMed

    Bártolo, Inês; Zakovic, Suzana; Martin, Francisco; Palladino, Claudia; Carvalho, Patrícia; Camacho, Ricardo; Thamm, Sven; Clemente, Sofia; Taveira, Nuno

    2014-01-01

    To assess HIV-1 diversity, transmission dynamics and prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in Angola, five years after ART scale-up. Population sequencing of the pol gene was performed on 139 plasma samples collected in 2009 from drug-naive HIV-1 infected individuals living in Luanda. HIV-1 subtypes were determined using phylogenetic analysis. Drug resistance mutations were identified using the Calibrated Population Resistance Tool (CPR). Transmission networks were determined using phylogenetic analysis of all Angolan sequences present in the databases. Evolutionary trends were determined by comparison with a similar survey performed in 2001. 47.1% of the viruses were pure subtypes (all except B), 47.1% were recombinants and 5.8% were untypable. The prevalence of subtype A decreased significantly from 2001 to 2009 (40.0% to 10.8%, P = 0.0019) while the prevalence of unique recombinant forms (URFs) increased > 2-fold (40.0% to 83.1%, P < 0.0001). The most frequent URFs comprised untypable sequences with subtypes H (U/H, n = 7, 10.8%), A (U/A, n = 6, 9.2%) and G (G/U, n = 4, 6.2%). Newly identified U/H recombinants formed a highly supported monophyletic cluster suggesting a local and common origin. TDR mutation K103N was found in one (0.7%) patient (1.6% in 2001). Out of the 364 sequences sampled for transmission network analysis, 130 (35.7%) were part of a transmission network. Forty eight transmission clusters were identified; the majority (56.3%) comprised sequences sampled in 2008-2010 in Luanda which is consistent with a locally fuelled epidemic. Very low genetic distance was found in 27 transmission pairs sampled in the same year, suggesting recent transmission events. Transmission of drug resistant strains was still negligible in Luanda in 2009, five years after the scale-up of ART. The dominance of small and recent transmission clusters and the emergence of new URFs are consistent with a rising HIV-1 epidemics mainly driven by heterosexual

  17. Early Characterization of the Severity and Transmissibility of Pandemic Influenza Using Clinical Episode Data from Multiple Populations

    PubMed Central

    Riley, Pete; Ben-Nun, Michal; Linker, Jon A.; Cost, Angelia A.; Sanchez, Jose L.; George, Dylan; Bacon, David P.; Riley, Steven

    2015-01-01

    The potential rapid availability of large-scale clinical episode data during the next influenza pandemic suggests an opportunity for increasing the speed with which novel respiratory pathogens can be characterized. Key intervention decisions will be determined by both the transmissibility of the novel strain (measured by the basic reproductive number R 0) and its individual-level severity. The 2009 pandemic illustrated that estimating individual-level severity, as described by the proportion p C of infections that result in clinical cases, can remain uncertain for a prolonged period of time. Here, we use 50 distinct US military populations during 2009 as a retrospective cohort to test the hypothesis that real-time encounter data combined with disease dynamic models can be used to bridge this uncertainty gap. Effectively, we estimated the total number of infections in multiple early-affected communities using the model and divided that number by the known number of clinical cases. Joint estimates of severity and transmissibility clustered within a relatively small region of parameter space, with 40 of the 50 populations bounded by: p C, 0.0133–0.150 and R 0, 1.09–2.16. These fits were obtained despite widely varying incidence profiles: some with spring waves, some with fall waves and some with both. To illustrate the benefit of specific pairing of rapidly available data and infectious disease models, we simulated a future moderate pandemic strain with p C approximately ×10 that of 2009; the results demonstrating that even before the peak had passed in the first affected population, R 0 and p C could be well estimated. This study provides a clear reference in this two-dimensional space against which future novel respiratory pathogens can be rapidly assessed and compared with previous pandemics. PMID:26402446

  18. Impact of Public Safety Policies on Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission Dynamics in Tijuana, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Mehta, Sanjay R; Chaillon, Antoine; Gaines, Tommi L; Gonzalez-Zuniga, Patricia E; Stockman, Jamila K; Almanza-Reyes, Horatio; Chavez, Jose Roman; Vera, Alicia; Wagner, Karla D; Patterson, Thomas L; Scott, Brianna; Smith, Davey M; Strathdee, Steffanie A

    2018-02-10

    North Tijuana, Mexico is home to many individuals at high risk for transmitting and acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Recently, policy shifts by local government impacted how these individuals were handled by authorities. Here we examined how this affected regional HIV transmission dynamics. HIV pol sequences and associated demographic information were collected from 8 research studies enrolling persons in Tijuana and were used to infer viral transmission patterns. To evaluate the impact of recent policy changes on HIV transmission dynamics, qualitative interviews were performed on a subset of recently infected individuals. Between 2004 and 2016, 288 unique HIV pol sequences were obtained from individuals in Tijuana, including 46.4% from men who have sex with men, 42.1% from individuals reporting transactional sex, and 27.8% from persons who inject drugs (some individuals had >1 risk factor). Forty-two percent of sequences linked to at least 1 other sequence, forming 37 transmission clusters. Thirty-two individuals seroconverted during the observation period, including 8 between April and July 2016. Three of these individuals were putatively linked together. Qualitative interviews suggested changes in policing led individuals to shift locations of residence and injection drug use, leading to increased risk taking (eg, sharing needles). Near real-time molecular epidemiologic analyses identified a cluster of linked transmissions temporally associated with policy shifts. Interviews suggested these shifts may have led to increased risk taking among individuals at high risk for HIV acquisition. With all public policy shifts, downstream impacts need to be carefully considered, as even well-intentioned policies can have major public health consequences. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morin, Cory; Monaghan, Andrew; Crosson, William; Quattrochi, Dale; Luvall, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground-based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010-2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

  20. Dynamic Analysis of Spur Gear Transmissions (DANST). PC Version 3.00 User Manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oswald, Fred B.; Lin, Hsiang Hsi; Delgado, Irebert R.

    1996-01-01

    DANST is a FORTRAN computer program for static and dynamic analysis of spur gear systems. The program can be used for parametric studies to predict the static transmission error, dynamic load, tooth bending stress and other properties of spur gears as they are influenced by operating speed, torque, stiffness, damping, inertia, and tooth profile. DANST performs geometric modeling and dynamic analysis for low- or high-contact-ratio spur gears. DANST can simulate gear systems with contact ratios ranging from one to three. It was designed to be easy to use and it is extensively documented in several previous reports and by comments in the source code. This report describes installing and using a new PC version of DANST, covers input data requirements and presents examples.

  1. Identification of Unequally Represented Founder Viruses Among Tissues in Very Early SIV Rectal Transmission

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Jian; Ren, Yanqin; Daharsh, Lance; Liu, Lu; Kang, Guobin; Li, Qingsheng; Wei, Qiang; Wan, Yanmin; Xu, Jianqing

    2018-01-01

    Characterizing the transmitted/founder (T/F) viruses of multi-variant SIV infection may shed new light on the understanding of mucosal transmission. We intrarectally inoculated six Chinese rhesus macaques with a single high dose of SIVmac251 (3.1 × 104 TCID50) and obtained 985 full-length env sequences from multiple tissues at 6 and 10 days post-infection by single genome amplification (SGA). All 6 monkeys were infected with a range of 2 to 8 T/F viruses and the dominant variants from the inoculum were still dominant in different tissues from each monkey. Interestingly, our data showed that a cluster of rare T/F viruses was unequally represented in different tissues. This cluster of rare T/F viruses phylogenetically related to the non-dominant SIV variants in the inoculum and was not detected in any rectum tissues, but could be identified in the descending colon, jejunum, spleen, or plasma. In 2 out of 6 macaques, identical SIVmac251 variants belonging to this cluster were detected simultaneously in descending colon/jejunum and the inoculum. We also demonstrated that the average CG dinucleotide frequency of these rare T/F viruses found in tissues, as well as non-dominant variants in the inoculum, was significantly higher than the dominant T/F viruses in tissues and the inoculum. Collectively, these findings suggest that descending colon/jejunum might be more susceptible than rectum to SIV in the very early phase of infection. And host CG suppression, which was previously shown to inhibit HIV replication in vitro, may also contribute to the bottleneck selection during in vivo transmission. PMID:29651274

  2. Complex Dynamics of the Power Transmission Grid (and other Critical Infrastructures)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newman, David

    2015-03-01

    Our modern societies depend crucially on a web of complex critical infrastructures such as power transmission networks, communication systems, transportation networks and many others. These infrastructure systems display a great number of the characteristic properties of complex systems. Important among these characteristics, they exhibit infrequent large cascading failures that often obey a power law distribution in their probability versus size. This power law behavior suggests that conventional risk analysis does not apply to these systems. It is thought that much of this behavior comes from the dynamical evolution of the system as it ages, is repaired, upgraded, and as the operational rules evolve with human decision making playing an important role in the dynamics. In this talk, infrastructure systems as complex dynamical systems will be introduced and some of their properties explored. The majority of the talk will then be focused on the electric power transmission grid though many of the results can be easily applied to other infrastructures. General properties of the grid will be discussed and results from a dynamical complex systems power transmission model will be compared with real world data. Then we will look at a variety of uses of this type of model. As examples, we will discuss the impact of size and network homogeneity on the grid robustness, the change in risk of failure as generation mix (more distributed vs centralized for example) changes, as well as the effect of operational changes such as the changing the operational risk aversion or grid upgrade strategies. One of the important outcomes from this work is the realization that ``improvements'' in the system components and operational efficiency do not always improve the system robustness, and can in fact greatly increase the risk, when measured as a risk of large failure.

  3. Dynamic Transmit-Receive Beamforming by Spatial Matched Filtering for Ultrasound Imaging with Plane Wave Transmission.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yuling; Lou, Yang; Yen, Jesse

    2017-07-01

    During conventional ultrasound imaging, the need for multiple transmissions for one image and the time of flight for a desired imaging depth limit the frame rate of the system. Using a single plane wave pulse during each transmission followed by parallel receive processing allows for high frame rate imaging. However, image quality is degraded because of the lack of transmit focusing. Beamforming by spatial matched filtering (SMF) is a promising method which focuses ultrasonic energy using spatial filters constructed from the transmit-receive impulse response of the system. Studies by other researchers have shown that SMF beamforming can provide dynamic transmit-receive focusing throughout the field of view. In this paper, we apply SMF beamforming to plane wave transmissions (PWTs) to achieve both dynamic transmit-receive focusing at all imaging depths and high imaging frame rate (>5000 frames per second). We demonstrated the capability of the combined method (PWT + SMF) of achieving two-way focusing mathematically through analysis based on the narrowband Rayleigh-Sommerfeld diffraction theory. Moreover, the broadband performance of PWT + SMF was quantified in terms of lateral resolution and contrast from both computer simulations and experimental data. Results were compared between SMF beamforming and conventional delay-and-sum (DAS) beamforming in both simulations and experiments. At an imaging depth of 40 mm, simulation results showed a 29% lateral resolution improvement and a 160% contrast improvement with PWT + SMF. These improvements were 17% and 48% for experimental data with noise.

  4. Dynamics of a feline virus with two transmission modes within exponentially growing host populations.

    PubMed Central

    Berthier, K; Langlais, M; Auger, P; Pontier, D

    2000-01-01

    Feline panleucopenia virus (FPLV) was introduced in 1977 on Marion Island (in the southern Indian Ocean) with the aim of eradicating the cat population and provoked a huge decrease in the host population within six years. The virus can be transmitted either directly through contacts between infected and healthy cats or indirectly between a healthy cat and the contaminated environment: a specific feature of the virus is its high rate of survival outside the host. In this paper, a model was designed in order to take these two modes of transmission into account. The results showed that a mass-action incidence assumption was more appropriate than a proportionate mixing one in describing the dynamics of direct transmission. Under certain conditions the virus was able to control the host population at a low density. The indirect transmission acted as a reservoir supplying the host population with a low but sufficient density of infected individuals which allowed the virus to persist. The dynamics of the infection were more affected by the demographic parameters of the healthy hosts than by the epidemiological ones. Thus, demographic parameters should be precisely measured in field studies in order to obtain accurate predictions. The predicted results of our model were in good agreement with observations. PMID:11416908

  5. Transmission dynamics of an insect-specific flavivirus in a naturally infected Culex pipiens laboratory colony and effects of co-infection on vector competence for West Nile virus

    PubMed Central

    Bolling, Bethany G.; Olea-Popelka, Francisco J.; Eisen, Lars; Moore, Chester G.; Blair, Carol D.

    2012-01-01

    We established a laboratory colony of Culex pipiens mosquitoes from eggs collected in Colorado and discovered that mosquitoes in the colony are naturally infected with Culex flavivirus (CxFV), an insect-specific flavivirus. In this study we examined transmission dynamics of CxFV and effects of persistent CxFV infection on vector competence for West Nile virus (WNV). We found that vertical transmission is the primary mechanism for persistence of CxFV in Cx. pipiens, with venereal transmission potentially playing a minor role. Vector competence experiments indicated possible early suppression of WNV replication by persistent CxFV infection in Cx. pipiens. This is the first description of insect-specific flavivirus transmission dynamics in a naturally infected mosquito colony and the observation of delayed dissemination of superinfecting WNV suggests that the presence of CxFV may impact the intensity of enzootic transmission of WNV and the risk of human exposure to this important pathogen. PMID:22425062

  6. Modelling entomological-climatic interactions of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two Colombian endemic-regions: contributions to a National Malaria Early Warning System

    PubMed Central

    Ruiz, Daniel; Poveda, Germán; Vélez, Iván D; Quiñones, Martha L; Rúa, Guillermo L; Velásquez, Luz E; Zuluaga, Juan S

    2006-01-01

    Background Malaria has recently re-emerged as a public health burden in Colombia. Although the problem seems to be climate-driven, there remain significant gaps of knowledge in the understanding of the complexity of malaria transmission, which have motivated attempts to develop a comprehensive model. Methods The mathematical tool was applied to represent Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two endemic-areas. Entomological exogenous variables were estimated through field campaigns and laboratory experiments. Availability of breeding places was included towards representing fluctuations in vector densities. Diverse scenarios, sensitivity analyses and instabilities cases were considered during experimentation-validation process. Results Correlation coefficients and mean square errors between observed and modelled incidences reached 0.897–0.668 (P > 0.95) and 0.0002–0.0005, respectively. Temperature became the most relevant climatic parameter driving the final incidence. Accordingly, malaria outbreaks are possible during the favourable epochs following the onset of El Niño warm events. Sporogonic and gonotrophic cycles showed to be the entomological key-variables controlling the transmission potential of mosquitoes' population. Simulation results also showed that seasonality of vector density becomes an important factor towards understanding disease transmission. Conclusion The model constitutes a promising tool to deepen the understanding of the multiple interactions related to malaria transmission conducive to outbreaks. In the foreseeable future it could be implemented as a tool to diagnose possible dynamical patterns of malaria incidence under several scenarios, as well as a decision-making tool for the early detection and control of outbreaks. The model will be also able to be merged with forecasts of El Niño events to provide a National Malaria Early Warning System. PMID:16882349

  7. Modelling entomological-climatic interactions of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two Colombian endemic-regions: contributions to a National Malaria Early Warning System.

    PubMed

    Ruiz, Daniel; Poveda, Germán; Vélez, Iván D; Quiñones, Martha L; Rúa, Guillermo L; Velásquez, Luz E; Zuluaga, Juan S

    2006-08-01

    Malaria has recently re-emerged as a public health burden in Colombia. Although the problem seems to be climate-driven, there remain significant gaps of knowledge in the understanding of the complexity of malaria transmission, which have motivated attempts to develop a comprehensive model. The mathematical tool was applied to represent Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two endemic-areas. Entomological exogenous variables were estimated through field campaigns and laboratory experiments. Availability of breeding places was included towards representing fluctuations in vector densities. Diverse scenarios, sensitivity analyses and instabilities cases were considered during experimentation-validation process. Correlation coefficients and mean square errors between observed and modelled incidences reached 0.897-0.668 (P > 0.95) and 0.0002-0.0005, respectively. Temperature became the most relevant climatic parameter driving the final incidence. Accordingly, malaria outbreaks are possible during the favourable epochs following the onset of El Niño warm events. Sporogonic and gonotrophic cycles showed to be the entomological key-variables controlling the transmission potential of mosquitoes' population. Simulation results also showed that seasonality of vector density becomes an important factor towards understanding disease transmission. The model constitutes a promising tool to deepen the understanding of the multiple interactions related to malaria transmission conducive to outbreaks. In the foreseeable future it could be implemented as a tool to diagnose possible dynamical patterns of malaria incidence under several scenarios, as well as a decision-making tool for the early detection and control of outbreaks. The model will be also able to be merged with forecasts of El Niño events to provide a National Malaria Early Warning System.

  8. Dynamic high-speed acquisition system design of transmission error with USB based on LabVIEW and FPGA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Yong; Chen, Yan

    2013-10-01

    To realize the design of dynamic acquisition system for real-time detection of transmission chain error is very important to improve the machining accuracy of machine tool. In this paper, the USB controller and FPGA is used for hardware platform design, combined with LabVIEW to design user applications, NI-VISA is taken for develop USB drivers, and ultimately achieve the dynamic acquisition system design of transmission error

  9. On the dynamic response of pressure transmission lines in the research of helium-charged free piston Stirling engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Eric L.; Dudenhoefer, James E.

    1989-01-01

    The signal distortion inherent to pressure transmission lines in free-piston Stirling engine research is discussed. Based on results from classical analysis, guidelines are formulated to describe the dynamic response properties of a volume-terminated transmission tube for applications involving the helium-charged free-piston Stirling engines. The underdamped flow regime is described, the primary resonance frequency is derived, and the pressure phase and amplitude distortion are discussed. The scope and limitation of the dynamic response analysis are considered.

  10. On the dynamic response of pressure transmission lines in the research of helium-charged free piston Stirling engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Eric L.; Dudenhoefer, James E.

    1989-01-01

    In free piston Stirling engine research the integrity of both amplitude and phase of the dynamic pressure measurements is critical to the characterization of cycle dynamics and thermodynamics. It is therefore necessary to appreciate all possible sources of signal distortion when designing pressure measurement systems for this type of research. The signal distortion inherent to pressure transmission lines is discussed. Based on results from classical analysis, guidelines are formulated to describe the dynamic response properties of a volume-terminated transmission tube for applications involving helium-charged free piston Stirling engines. The scope and limitations of the dynamic response analysis are considered.

  11. Method of transmission of dynamic multibit digital images from micro-unmanned aerial vehicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrov, E. P.; Kharina, N. L.

    2018-01-01

    In connection with successful usage of nanotechnologies in remote sensing great attention is paid to the systems in micro-unmanned aerial vehicles (MUAVs) capable to provide high spatial resolution of dynamic multibit digital images (MDI). Limited energy resources on board the MUAV do not allow transferring a large amount of video information in the shortest possible time. It keeps back the broad development of MUAV. The search for methods to shorten the transmission time of dynamic MDIs from MUAV over the radio channel leads to the methods of MDI compression without computational operations onboard the MUAV. The known compression codecs of video information can not be applied because of the limited energy resources. In this paper we propose a method for reducing the transmission time of dynamic MDIs without computational operations and distortions onboard the MUAV. To develop the method a mathematical apparatus of the theory of conditional Markov processes with discrete arguments was used. On its basis a mathematical model for the transformation of the MDI represented by binary images (BI) in the MDI, consisting of groups of neighboring BIs (GBI) transmitted by multiphase (MP) signals, is constructed. The algorithm for multidimensional nonlinear filtering of MP signals is synthesized, realizing the statistical redundancy of the MDI to compensate for the noise stability losses caused by the use of MP signals.

  12. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain

    PubMed Central

    Vahia, Mayank N.; Ladiwala, Uma; Mahathe, Pavan; Mathur, Deepak

    2016-01-01

    Background Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction. Method and Results We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples’ movement over ~2000 years before the present era. Conclusions We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available. PMID:27148959

  13. Internal migration and transmission dynamics of tuberculosis in Shanghai, China: an epidemiological, spatial, genomic analysis.

    PubMed

    Yang, Chongguang; Lu, Liping; Warren, Joshua L; Wu, Jie; Jiang, Qi; Zuo, Tianyu; Gan, Mingyu; Liu, Mei; Liu, Qingyun; DeRiemer, Kathryn; Hong, Jianjun; Shen, Xin; Colijn, Caroline; Guo, Xiaoqin; Gao, Qian; Cohen, Ted

    2018-04-19

    Massive internal migration from rural to urban areas poses new challenges for tuberculosis control in China. We aimed to combine genomic, spatial, and epidemiological data to describe the dynamics of tuberculosis in an urban setting with large numbers of migrants. We did a population-based study of culture-positive Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates in Songjiang, Shanghai. We used whole-genome sequencing to discriminate apparent genetic clusters of M tuberculosis sharing identical variable-number-tandem-repeat (VNTR) patterns, and analysed the relations between proximity of residence and the risk of genomically clustered M tuberculosis. Finally, we used genomic, spatial, and epidemiological data to estimate time of infection and transmission links among migrants and residents. Between Jan 1, 2009, and Dec 31, 2015, 1620 cases of culture-positive tuberculosis were recorded, 1211 (75%) of which occurred among internal migrants. 150 (69%) of 218 people sharing identical VNTR patterns had isolates within ten single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of at least one other strain, consistent with recent transmission of M tuberculosis. Pairs of strains collected from individuals living in close proximity were more likely to be genetically similar than those from individuals who lived far away-for every additional km of distance between patients' homes, the odds that genotypically matched strains were within ten SNPs of each other decreased by about 10% (OR 0·89 [95% CI 0·87-0·91]; p<0·0001). We inferred that transmission from residents to migrants occurs as commonly as transmission from migrants to residents, and we estimated that more than two-thirds of migrants in genomic clusters were infected locally after migration. The primary mechanism driving local incidence of tuberculosis in urban centres is local transmission between both migrants and residents. Combined analysis of epidemiological, genomic, and spatial data contributes to a richer understanding of local

  14. Study on the dynamics responses of a transmission system made from carbon nanotubes

    SciTech Connect

    Yin, Hang; Cai, Kun, E-mail: kuicansj@163.com; Wei, Ning

    2015-06-21

    A rotational transmission system from coaxial carbon nanotubes (CNTs) is investigated using a computational molecular dynamics approach. The system consists of a motor from a single-walled carbon nanotube and a bearing from a double-walled carbon nanotube. The motor has a high fixed rotational frequency and the two ends of the outer tube in the bearing are fixed. The inner tube in the bearing works as a rotor. Because of the interlayer friction in the bearing, configurations of the joint between the adjacent ends of motor and rotor have significant effects on rotational transmission properties. Four factors are considered in simulation,more » i.e., the bonding types of atoms (sp{sup 1} and sp{sup 2}) on the ends of motor and rotor, the difference between motor and rotor radii, the rotational speed of motor, and the environmental temperature. It is found that the synchronous transmission happens if the sp{sup 1} atoms on the jointed ends of motor and rotor are bonded each other and become new sp{sup 2} atoms. Therefore, the lower difference between radii of motor and rotor, higher temperature of environment leads to synchronous rotational transmission easily. If the environmental temperature is too low (e.g., <150 K), the end of motor adjacent to rotor is easily under buckling and new sp{sup 2} atoms appear, too. With capped CNTs or higher radii difference between rotor and motor at an appropriate temperature, a stable asynchronous rotation of rotor can be generated, and the rotor's frequency varying linearly with motor's frequency between 230 and 270 GHz. A multi-signal transmission device combined with oscillating and rotational motion is proposed for motor and stator shares a same size in radius.« less

  15. Early agriculture and crop transmission among Bronze Age mobile pastoralists of Central Eurasia

    PubMed Central

    Spengler, Robert; Frachetti, Michael; Doumani, Paula; Rouse, Lynne; Cerasetti, Barbara; Bullion, Elissa; Mar'yashev, Alexei

    2014-01-01

    Archaeological research in Central Eurasia is exposing unprecedented scales of trans-regional interaction and technology transfer between East Asia and southwest Asia deep into the prehistoric past. This article presents a new archaeobotanical analysis from pastoralist campsites in the mountain and desert regions of Central Eurasia that documents the oldest known evidence for domesticated grains and farming among seasonally mobile herders. Carbonized grains from the sites of Tasbas and Begash illustrate the first transmission of southwest Asian and East Asian domesticated grains into the mountains of Inner Asia in the early third millennium BC. By the middle second millennium BC, seasonal camps in the mountains and deserts illustrate that Eurasian herders incorporated the cultivation of millet, wheat, barley and legumes into their subsistence strategy. These findings push back the chronology for domesticated plant use among Central Eurasian pastoralists by approximately 2000 years. Given the geography, chronology and seed morphology of these data, we argue that mobile pastoralists were key agents in the spread of crop repertoires and the transformation of agricultural economies across Asia from the third to the second millennium BC. PMID:24695428

  16. Early agriculture and crop transmission among Bronze Age mobile pastoralists of Central Eurasia.

    PubMed

    Spengler, Robert; Frachetti, Michael; Doumani, Paula; Rouse, Lynne; Cerasetti, Barbara; Bullion, Elissa; Mar'yashev, Alexei

    2014-05-22

    Archaeological research in Central Eurasia is exposing unprecedented scales of trans-regional interaction and technology transfer between East Asia and southwest Asia deep into the prehistoric past. This article presents a new archaeobotanical analysis from pastoralist campsites in the mountain and desert regions of Central Eurasia that documents the oldest known evidence for domesticated grains and farming among seasonally mobile herders. Carbonized grains from the sites of Tasbas and Begash illustrate the first transmission of southwest Asian and East Asian domesticated grains into the mountains of Inner Asia in the early third millennium BC. By the middle second millennium BC, seasonal camps in the mountains and deserts illustrate that Eurasian herders incorporated the cultivation of millet, wheat, barley and legumes into their subsistence strategy. These findings push back the chronology for domesticated plant use among Central Eurasian pastoralists by approximately 2000 years. Given the geography, chronology and seed morphology of these data, we argue that mobile pastoralists were key agents in the spread of crop repertoires and the transformation of agricultural economies across Asia from the third to the second millennium BC.

  17. Numerical modeling of the transmission dynamics of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant HSV-2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gumel, A. B.

    2001-03-01

    A competitive finite-difference method will be constructed and used to solve a modified deterministic model for the spread of herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) within a given population. The model monitors the transmission dynamics and control of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant HSV-2. Unlike the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method (RK4), which fails when the discretization parameters exceed certain values, the novel numerical method to be developed in this paper gives convergent results for all parameter values.

  18. Transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis in Zimbabwe: A mathematical and GIS Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ngarakana-Gwasira, E. T.; Bhunu, C. P.; Masocha, M.; Mashonjowa, E.

    2016-06-01

    Temperature and presence of water bodies are known to influence the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis. In this work, effects of water bodies (taken in context of rainfall patterns) and temperature from 1950 to 2000 are considered in the model. With the aid of Geographic Information System (GIS), the reproduction number is mapped on the Zimbabwean country. Results of the mapping show high reproduction numbers along the Lowveld and the Zambezi valley catchment area. High reproduction numbers suggest high levels of schistosomiasis. This result suggests more control efforts should be targeted in these areas with high reproduction numbers.

  19. Early signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pal, Mainak; Pal, Amit Kumar; Ghosh, Sayantari; Bose, Indrani

    2013-06-01

    Recently, a large number of studies have been carried out on the early signatures of sudden regime shifts in systems as diverse as ecosystems, financial markets, population biology and complex diseases. The signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics are less systematically investigated. In this paper, we consider sudden regime shifts in the gene expression dynamics described by a fold-bifurcation model involving bistability and hysteresis. We consider two alternative models, models 1 and 2, of competence development in the bacterial population B. subtilis and determine some early signatures of the regime shifts between competence and noncompetence. We use both deterministic and stochastic formalisms for the purpose of our study. The early signatures studied include the critical slowing down as a transition point is approached, rising variance and the lag-1 autocorrelation function, skewness and a ratio of two mean first passage times. Some of the signatures could provide the experimental basis for distinguishing between bistability and excitability as the correct mechanism for the development of competence.

  20. Family Income Dynamics, Early Childhood Education and Care, and Early Child Behavior Problems in Norway

    PubMed Central

    Zachrisson, Henrik Daae; Dearing, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The sociopolitical context of Norway includes low poverty rates and universal access to subsidized and regulated Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC). In this context, the association between family income dynamics and changes in early child behavior problems was investigated, as well as whether high quality ECEC buffers children from the effects of income dynamics. In a population-based sample (N = 75,296), within-family changes in income-to-needs predicted changes in externalizing and internalizing problems (from age 18 to 36 months), particularly for lower-income children. For internalizing problems, ECEC buffered the effect of income-to-needs changes. These findings lend further support to the potential benefits of ECEC for children from lower-income families. PMID:25345342

  1. Contact, Travel, and Transmission: The Impact of Winter Holidays on Influenza Dynamics in the United States.

    PubMed

    Ewing, Anne; Lee, Elizabeth C; Viboud, Cécile; Bansal, Shweta

    2017-03-01

    The seasonality of influenza is thought to vary according to environmental factors and human behavior. During winter holidays, potential disease-causing contact and travel deviate from typical patterns. We aim to understand these changes on age-specific and spatial influenza transmission. We characterized the changes to transmission and epidemic trajectories among children and adults in a spatial context before, during, and after the winter holidays among aggregated physician medical claims in the United States from 2001 to 2009 and among synthetic data simulated from a deterministic, age-specific spatial metapopulation model. Winter holidays reduced influenza transmission and delayed the trajectory of influenza season epidemics. The holiday period was marked by a shift in the relative risk of disease from children toward adults. Model results indicated that holidays delayed epidemic peaks and synchronized incidence across locations, and that contact reductions from school closures, rather than age-specific mixing and travel, produced these observed holiday influenza dynamics. Winter holidays delay seasonal influenza epidemic peaks and shift disease risk toward adults because of changes in contact patterns. These findings may inform targeted influenza information and vaccination campaigns during holiday periods. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Transmission dynamics of the recently-identified BYD virus causing duck egg-drop syndrome.

    PubMed

    Vaidya, Naveen K; Wang, Feng-bin; Zou, Xingfu; Wahl, Lindi M

    2012-01-01

    Baiyangdian (BYD) virus is a recently-identified mosquito-borne flavivirus that causes severe disease in ducks, with extremely rapid transmission, up to 15% mortality within 10 days and 90% reduction in egg production on duck farms within 5 days of infection. Because of the zoonotic nature of flaviviruses, the characterization of BYD virus and its epidemiology are important public health concerns. Here, we develop a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of this novel virus. We validate the model against BYD outbreak data collected from duck farms in Southeast China, as well as experimental data obtained from an animal facility. Based on our model, the basic reproductive number of BYD virus is high (R(0) = 21) indicating that this virus is highly transmissible, consistent with the dramatic epidemiology observed in BYDV-affected duck farms. Our results indicate that younger ducks are more vulnerable to BYD disease and that ducks infected with BYD virus reduce egg production (to about 33% on average) for about 3 days post-infection; after 3 days infected ducks are no longer able to produce eggs. Using our model, we predict that control measures which reduce contact between mosquitoes and ducks such as mosquito nets are more effective than insecticides.

  3. Contact, Travel, and Transmission: The Impact of Winter Holidays on Influenza Dynamics in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Ewing, Anne; Lee, Elizabeth C.; Viboud, Cécile

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Background. The seasonality of influenza is thought to vary according to environmental factors and human behavior. During winter holidays, potential disease-causing contact and travel deviate from typical patterns. We aim to understand these changes on age-specific and spatial influenza transmission. Methods. We characterized the changes to transmission and epidemic trajectories among children and adults in a spatial context before, during, and after the winter holidays among aggregated physician medical claims in the United States from 2001 to 2009 and among synthetic data simulated from a deterministic, age-specific spatial metapopulation model. Results. Winter holidays reduced influenza transmission and delayed the trajectory of influenza season epidemics. The holiday period was marked by a shift in the relative risk of disease from children toward adults. Model results indicated that holidays delayed epidemic peaks and synchronized incidence across locations, and that contact reductions from school closures, rather than age-specific mixing and travel, produced these observed holiday influenza dynamics. Conclusions. Winter holidays delay seasonal influenza epidemic peaks and shift disease risk toward adults because of changes in contact patterns. These findings may inform targeted influenza information and vaccination campaigns during holiday periods. PMID:28031259

  4. Phase synchronization motion and neural coding in dynamic transmission of neural information.

    PubMed

    Wang, Rubin; Zhang, Zhikang; Qu, Jingyi; Cao, Jianting

    2011-07-01

    In order to explore the dynamic characteristics of neural coding in the transmission of neural information in the brain, a model of neural network consisting of three neuronal populations is proposed in this paper using the theory of stochastic phase dynamics. Based on the model established, the neural phase synchronization motion and neural coding under spontaneous activity and stimulation are examined, for the case of varying network structure. Our analysis shows that, under the condition of spontaneous activity, the characteristics of phase neural coding are unrelated to the number of neurons participated in neural firing within the neuronal populations. The result of numerical simulation supports the existence of sparse coding within the brain, and verifies the crucial importance of the magnitudes of the coupling coefficients in neural information processing as well as the completely different information processing capability of neural information transmission in both serial and parallel couplings. The result also testifies that under external stimulation, the bigger the number of neurons in a neuronal population, the more the stimulation influences the phase synchronization motion and neural coding evolution in other neuronal populations. We verify numerically the experimental result in neurobiology that the reduction of the coupling coefficient between neuronal populations implies the enhancement of lateral inhibition function in neural networks, with the enhancement equivalent to depressing neuronal excitability threshold. Thus, the neuronal populations tend to have a stronger reaction under the same stimulation, and more neurons get excited, leading to more neurons participating in neural coding and phase synchronization motion.

  5. Performance Analysis of Control Signal Transmission Technique for Cognitive Radios in Dynamic Spectrum Access Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakata, Ren; Tomioka, Tazuko; Kobayashi, Takahiro

    When cognitive radio (CR) systems dynamically use the frequency band, a control signal is necessary to indicate which carrier frequencies are currently available in the network. In order to keep efficient spectrum utilization, this control signal also should be transmitted based on the channel conditions. If transmitters dynamically select carrier frequencies, receivers have to receive control signals without knowledge of their carrier frequencies. To enable such transmission and reception, this paper proposes a novel scheme called DCPT (Differential Code Parallel Transmission). With DCPT, receivers can receive low-rate information with no knowledge of the carrier frequencies. The transmitter transmits two signals whose carrier frequencies are spaced by a predefined value. The absolute values of the carrier frequencies can be varied. When the receiver acquires the DCPT signal, it multiplies the signal by a frequency-shifted version of the signal; this yields a DC component that represents the data signal which is then demodulated. The performance was evaluated by means of numerical analysis and computer simulation. We confirmed that DCPT operates successfully even under severe interference if its parameters are appropriately configured.

  6. Strain-specific estimation of epidemic success provides insights into the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis

    PubMed Central

    Rasigade, Jean-Philippe; Barbier, Maxime; Dumitrescu, Oana; Pichat, Catherine; Carret, Gérard; Ronnaux-Baron, Anne-Sophie; Blasquez, Ghislaine; Godin-Benhaim, Christine; Boisset, Sandrine; Carricajo, Anne; Jacomo, Véronique; Fredenucci, Isabelle; Pérouse de Montclos, Michèle; Flandrois, Jean-Pierre; Ader, Florence; Supply, Philip; Lina, Gérard; Wirth, Thierry

    2017-01-01

    The transmission dynamics of tuberculosis involves complex interactions of socio-economic and, possibly, microbiological factors. We describe an analytical framework to infer factors of epidemic success based on the joint analysis of epidemiological, clinical and pathogen genetic data. We derive isolate-specific, genetic distance-based estimates of epidemic success, and we represent success-related time-dependent concepts, namely epidemicity and endemicity, by restricting analysis to specific time scales. The method is applied to analyze a surveillance-based cohort of 1,641 tuberculosis patients with minisatellite-based isolate genotypes. Known predictors of isolate endemicity (older age, native status) and epidemicity (younger age, sputum smear positivity) were identified with high confidence (P < 0.001). Long-term epidemic success also correlated with the ability of Euro-American and Beijing MTBC lineages to cause active pulmonary infection, independent of patient age and country of origin. Our results demonstrate how important insights into the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis can be gained from active surveillance data. PMID:28349973

  7. Dynamic, spatial models of parasite transmission in wildlife: Their structure, applications and remaining challenges.

    PubMed

    White, Lauren A; Forester, James D; Craft, Meggan E

    2018-05-01

    Individual differences in contact rate can arise from host, group and landscape heterogeneity and can result in different patterns of spatial spread for diseases in wildlife populations with concomitant implications for disease control in wildlife of conservation concern, livestock and humans. While dynamic disease models can provide a better understanding of the drivers of spatial spread, the effects of landscape heterogeneity have only been modelled in a few well-studied wildlife systems such as rabies and bovine tuberculosis. Such spatial models tend to be either purely theoretical with intrinsic limiting assumptions or individual-based models that are often highly species- and system-specific, limiting the breadth of their utility. Our goal was to review studies that have utilized dynamic, spatial models to answer questions about pathogen transmission in wildlife and identify key gaps in the literature. We begin by providing an overview of the main types of dynamic, spatial models (e.g., metapopulation, network, lattice, cellular automata, individual-based and continuous-space) and their relation to each other. We investigate different types of ecological questions that these models have been used to explore: pathogen invasion dynamics and range expansion, spatial heterogeneity and pathogen persistence, the implications of management and intervention strategies and the role of evolution in host-pathogen dynamics. We reviewed 168 studies that consider pathogen transmission in free-ranging wildlife and classify them by the model type employed, the focal host-pathogen system, and their overall research themes and motivation. We observed a significant focus on mammalian hosts, a few well-studied or purely theoretical pathogen systems, and a lack of studies occurring at the wildlife-public health or wildlife-livestock interfaces. Finally, we discuss challenges and future directions in the context of unprecedented human-mediated environmental change. Spatial models

  8. Characterizing measles transmission in India: a dynamic modeling study using verbal autopsy data.

    PubMed

    Verguet, Stéphane; Jones, Edward O; Johri, Mira; Morris, Shaun K; Suraweera, Wilson; Gauvreau, Cindy L; Jha, Prabhat; Jit, Mark

    2017-08-10

    Decreasing trends in measles mortality have been reported in recent years. However, such estimates of measles mortality have depended heavily on assumed regional measles case fatality risks (CFRs) and made little use of mortality data from low- and middle-income countries in general and India, the country with the highest measles burden globally, in particular. We constructed a dynamic model of measles transmission in India with parameters that were empirically inferred using spectral analysis from a time series of measles mortality extracted from the Million Death Study, an ongoing longitudinal study recording deaths across 2.4 million Indian households and attributing causes of death using verbal autopsy. The model was then used to estimate the measles CFR, the number of measles deaths, and the impact of vaccination in 2000-2015 among under-five children in India and in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh (UP), two states with large populations and the highest numbers of measles deaths in India. We obtained the following estimated CFRs among under-five children for the year 2005: 0.63% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40-1.00%) for India as a whole, 0.62% (0.38-1.00%) for Bihar, and 1.19% (0.80-1.75%) for UP. During 2000-2015, we estimated that 607,000 (95% CI: 383,000-958,000) under-five deaths attributed to measles occurred in India as a whole. If no routine vaccination or supplemental immunization activities had occurred from 2000 to 2015, an additional 1.6 (1.0-2.6) million deaths for under-five children would have occurred across India. We developed a data- and model-driven estimation of the historical measles dynamics, CFR, and vaccination impact in India, extracting the periodicity of epidemics using spectral and coherence analysis, which allowed us to infer key parameters driving measles transmission dynamics and mortality.

  9. Metamorphic density controls on early-stage subduction dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duesterhoeft, Erik; Oberhänsli, Roland; Bousquet, Romain

    2013-04-01

    Subduction is primarily driven by the densification of the downgoing oceanic slab, due to dynamic P-T-fields in subduction zones. It is crucial to unravel slab densification induced by metamorphic reactions to understand the influence on plate dynamics. By analyzing the density and metamorphic structure of subduction zones, we may gain knowledge about the driving, metamorphic processes in a subduction zone like the eclogitization (i.e., the transformation of a MORB to an eclogite), the breakdown of hydrous minerals and the release of fluid or the generation of partial melts. We have therefore developed a 2D subduction zone model down to 250 km that is based on thermodynamic equilibrium assemblage computations. Our model computes the "metamorphic density" of rocks as a function of pressure, temperature and chemical composition using the Theriak-Domino software package at different time stages. We have used this model to investigate how the hydration, dehydration, partial melting and fractionation processes of rocks all influence the metamorphic density and greatly depend on the temperature field within subduction systems. These processes are commonly neglected by other approaches (e.g., gravitational or thermomechanical in nature) reproducing the density distribution within this tectonic setting. The process of eclogitization is assumed as being important to subduction dynamics, based on the very high density (3.6 g/cm3) of eclogitic rocks. The eclogitization in a MORB-type crust is possible only if the rock reaches the garnet phase stability field. This process is primarily temperature driven. Our model demonstrates that the initiation of eclogitization of the slab is not the only significant process that makes the descending slab denser and is responsible for the slab pull force. Indeed, our results show that the densification of the downgoing lithospheric mantle (due to an increase of pressure) starts in the early subduction stage and makes a significant

  10. Vector Blood Meals Are an Early Indicator of the Effectiveness of the Ecohealth Approach in Halting Chagas Transmission in Guatemala

    PubMed Central

    Pellecer, Mariele J.; Dorn, Patricia L.; Bustamante, Dulce M.; Rodas, Antonieta; Monroy, M. Carlota

    2013-01-01

    A novel method using vector blood meal sources to assess the impact of control efforts on the risk of transmission of Chagas disease was tested in the village of El Tule, Jutiapa, Guatemala. Control used Ecohealth interventions, where villagers ameliorated the factors identified as most important for transmission. First, after an initial insecticide application, house walls were plastered. Later, bedroom floors were improved and domestic animals were moved outdoors. Only vector blood meal sources revealed the success of the first interventions: human blood meals declined from 38% to 3% after insecticide application and wall plastering. Following all interventions both vector blood meal sources and entomological indices revealed the reduction in transmission risk. These results indicate that vector blood meals may reveal effects of control efforts early on, effects that may not be apparent using traditional entomological indices, and provide further support for the Ecohealth approach to Chagas control in Guatemala. PMID:23382165

  11. Comparison of transmission dynamics between Streptococcus uberis and Streptococcus agalactiae intramammary infections.

    PubMed

    Leelahapongsathon, Kansuda; Schukken, Ynte Hein; Pinyopummintr, Tanu; Suriyasathaporn, Witaya

    2016-02-01

    parameter and R0 values were not different between both pathogens; however, the duration of infection for Strep. agalactiae was longer than Strep. uberis. These suggest that Strep. uberis may have a different transmission dynamic compared with Strep. agalactiae. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. A Fiber Bragg Grating-Based Dynamic Tension Detection System for Overhead Transmission Line Galloping.

    PubMed

    Ma, Guo-Ming; Li, Ya-Bo; Mao, Nai-Qiang; Shi, Cheng; Zhang, Bo; Li, Cheng-Rong

    2018-01-26

    Galloping of overhead transmission lines (OHTLs) may induce conductor breakage and tower collapse, and there is no effective method for long distance distribution on-line galloping monitoring. To overcome the drawbacks of the conventional galloping monitoring systems, such as sensitivity to electromagnetic interference, the need for onsite power, and short lifetimes, a novel optical remote passive measuring system is proposed in the paper. Firstly, to solve the hysteresis and eccentric load problem in tension sensing, and to extent the dynamic response range, an 'S' type elastic element structure with flanges was proposed. Then, a tension experiment was carried out to demonstrate the dynamic response characteristics. Moreover, the designed tension sensor was stretched continuously for 30 min to observe its long time stability. Last but not the least, the sensor was mounted on a 70 m conductor model, and the conductor was oscillated at different frequencies to investigate the dynamic performance of the sensor. The experimental results demonstrate the sensor is suitable for the OHTL galloping detection. Compared with the conventional sensors for OHTL monitoring, the system has many advantages, such as easy installation, no flashover risk, distribution monitoring, better bandwidth, improved accuracy and higher reliability.

  13. Nonlinear Dynamics of a Multistage Gear Transmission System with Multi-Clearance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiang, Ling; Zhang, Yue; Gao, Nan; Hu, Aijun; Xing, Jingtang

    The nonlinear torsional model of a multistage gear transmission system which consists of a planetary gear and two parallel gear stages is established with time-varying meshing stiffness, comprehensive gear error and multi-clearance. The nonlinear dynamic responses are analyzed by applying the reference of backlash bifurcation parameters. The motions of the system on the change of backlash are identified through global bifurcation diagram, largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE), FFT spectra, Poincaré maps, the phase diagrams and time series. The numerical results demonstrate that the system exhibits rich features of nonlinear dynamics such as the periodic motion, nonperiodic states and chaotic states. It is found that the sun-planet backlash has more complex effect on the system than the ring-planet backlash. The motions of the system with backlash of parallel gear are diverse including some different multi-periodic motions. Furthermore, the state of the system can change from chaos into quasi-periodic behavior, which means that the dynamic behavior of the system is composed of more stable components with the increase of the backlash. Correspondingly, the parameters of the system should be designed properly and controlled timely for better operation and enhancing the life of the system.

  14. Transmission Dynamics of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent – A Systematic Literature Review

    PubMed Central

    Boelaert, Marleen; Matlashewski, Greg; Mondal, Dinesh; Arana, Byron; Kroeger, Axel; Olliaro, Piero

    2016-01-01

    Background As Bangladesh, India and Nepal progress towards visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination, it is important to understand the role of asymptomatic Leishmania infection (ALI), VL treatment relapse and post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) in transmission. Methodology/ Principal Finding We reviewed evidence systematically on ALI, relapse and PKDL. We searched multiple databases to include studies on burden, risk factors, biomarkers, natural history, and infectiveness of ALI, PKDL and relapse. After screening 292 papers, 98 were included covering the years 1942 through 2016. ALI, PKDL and relapse studies lacked a reference standard and appropriate biomarker. The prevalence of ALI was 4–17-fold that of VL. The risk of ALI was higher in VL case contacts. Most infections remained asymptomatic or resolved spontaneously. The proportion of ALI that progressed to VL disease within a year was 1.5–23%, and was higher amongst those with high antibody titres. The natural history of PKDL showed variability; 3.8–28.6% had no past history of VL treatment. The infectiveness of PKDL was 32–53%. The risk of VL relapse was higher with HIV co-infection. Modelling studies predicted a range of scenarios. One model predicted VL elimination was unlikely in the long term with early diagnosis. Another model estimated that ALI contributed to 82% of the overall transmission, VL to 10% and PKDL to 8%. Another model predicted that VL cases were the main driver for transmission. Different models predicted VL elimination if the sandfly density was reduced by 67% by killing the sandfly or by 79% by reducing their breeding sites, or with 4–6y of optimal IRS or 10y of sub-optimal IRS and only in low endemic setting. Conclusion/ Significance There is a need for xenodiagnostic and longitudinal studies to understand the potential of ALI and PKDL as reservoirs of infection. PMID:27490264

  15. Dynamic biosignal management and transmission during telemedicine incidents handled by Mobile Units over diverse network types.

    PubMed

    Mandellos, George J; Koutelakis, George V; Panagiotakopoulos, Theodor C; Koukias, Andreas M; Koukias, Mixalis N; Lymberopoulos, Dimitrios K

    2008-01-01

    Early and specialized pre-hospital patient treatment improves outcome in terms of mortality and morbidity, in emergency cases. This paper focuses on the design and implementation of a telemedicine system that supports diverse types of endpoints including moving transports (MT) (ambulances, ships, planes, etc.), handheld devices and fixed units, using diverse communication networks. Target of the above telemedicine system is the pre-hospital patient treatment. While vital sign transmission is prior to other services provided by the telemedicine system (videoconference, remote management, voice calls etc.), a predefined algorithm controls provision and quality of the other services. A distributed database system controlled by a central server, aims to manage patient attributes, exams and incidents handled by different Telemedicine Coordination Centers (TCC).

  16. Simple Mathematical Models Do Not Accurately Predict Early SIV Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Noecker, Cecilia; Schaefer, Krista; Zaccheo, Kelly; Yang, Yiding; Day, Judy; Ganusov, Vitaly V.

    2015-01-01

    Upon infection of a new host, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) replicates in the mucosal tissues and is generally undetectable in circulation for 1–2 weeks post-infection. Several interventions against HIV including vaccines and antiretroviral prophylaxis target virus replication at this earliest stage of infection. Mathematical models have been used to understand how HIV spreads from mucosal tissues systemically and what impact vaccination and/or antiretroviral prophylaxis has on viral eradication. Because predictions of such models have been rarely compared to experimental data, it remains unclear which processes included in these models are critical for predicting early HIV dynamics. Here we modified the “standard” mathematical model of HIV infection to include two populations of infected cells: cells that are actively producing the virus and cells that are transitioning into virus production mode. We evaluated the effects of several poorly known parameters on infection outcomes in this model and compared model predictions to experimental data on infection of non-human primates with variable doses of simian immunodifficiency virus (SIV). First, we found that the mode of virus production by infected cells (budding vs. bursting) has a minimal impact on the early virus dynamics for a wide range of model parameters, as long as the parameters are constrained to provide the observed rate of SIV load increase in the blood of infected animals. Interestingly and in contrast with previous results, we found that the bursting mode of virus production generally results in a higher probability of viral extinction than the budding mode of virus production. Second, this mathematical model was not able to accurately describe the change in experimentally determined probability of host infection with increasing viral doses. Third and finally, the model was also unable to accurately explain the decline in the time to virus detection with increasing viral dose. These results

  17. Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review.

    PubMed

    Eikenberry, Steffen E; Gumel, Abba B

    2018-04-24

    Malaria, one of the greatest historical killers of mankind, continues to claim around half a million lives annually, with almost all deaths occurring in children under the age of five living in tropical Africa. The range of this disease is limited by climate to the warmer regions of the globe, and so anthropogenic global warming (and climate change more broadly) now threatens to alter the geographic area for potential malaria transmission, as both the Plasmodium malaria parasite and Anopheles mosquito vector have highly temperature-dependent lifecycles, while the aquatic immature Anopheles habitats are also strongly dependent upon rainfall and local hydrodynamics. A wide variety of process-based (or mechanistic) mathematical models have thus been proposed for the complex, highly nonlinear weather-driven Anopheles lifecycle and malaria transmission dynamics, but have reached somewhat disparate conclusions as to optimum temperatures for transmission, and the possible effect of increasing temperatures upon (potential) malaria distribution, with some projecting a large increase in the area at risk for malaria, but others predicting primarily a shift in the disease's geographic range. More generally, both global and local environmental changes drove the initial emergence of P. falciparum as a major human pathogen in tropical Africa some 10,000 years ago, and the disease has a long and deep history through the present. It is the goal of this paper to review major aspects of malaria biology, methods for formalizing these into mathematical forms, uncertainties and controversies in proper modeling methodology, and to provide a timeline of some major modeling efforts from the classical works of Sir Ronald Ross and George Macdonald through recent climate-focused modeling studies. Finally, we attempt to place such mathematical work within a broader historical context for the "million-murdering Death" of malaria.

  18. Effect of a preventive vaccine on the dynamics of HIV transmission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gumel, A. B.; Moghadas, S. M.; Mickens, R. E.

    2004-12-01

    A deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of HIV infection in the presence of a preventive vaccine is considered. Although the equilibria of the model could not be expressed in closed form, their existence and threshold conditions for their stability are theoretically investigated. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is locally-asymptotically stable if the basic reproductive number R<1 (thus, HIV disease can be eradicated from the community) and unstable if R>1 (leading to the persistence of HIV within the community). A robust, positivity-preserving, non-standard finite-difference method is constructed and used to solve the model equations. In addition to showing that the anti-HIV vaccine coverage level and the vaccine-induced protection are critically important in reducing the threshold quantity R, our study predicts the minimum threshold values of vaccine coverage and efficacy levels needed to eradicate HIV from the community.

  19. Transmission dynamics and prospective environmental sampling of adenovirus in a military recruit setting.

    PubMed

    Russell, Kevin L; Broderick, Michael P; Franklin, Suzanne E; Blyn, Lawrence B; Freed, Nikki E; Moradi, Emily; Ecker, David J; Kammerer, Peter E; Osuna, Miguel A; Kajon, Adriana E; Morn, Cassandra B; Ryan, Margaret A K

    2006-10-01

    High levels of morbidity caused by adenovirus among US military recruits have returned since the loss of adenovirus vaccines in 1999. The transmission dynamics of adenovirus have never been well understood, which complicates prevention efforts. Enrollment and end-of-study samples were obtained and active surveillance for febrile respiratory illnesses (FRIs) was performed for 341 recruits and support personnel. Environmental samples were collected simultaneously. Classic and advanced diagnostic techniques were used. Seventy-nine percent (213/271) of new recruits were seronegative for either adenovirus serotype 4 (Ad-4) or adenovirus serotype 7 (Ad-7). FRI caused by Ad-4 was observed in 25% (67/271) of enrolled recruits, with 100% of them occurring in individuals with enrollment titers <1 : 4. The percentage of recruits seropositive for Ad-4 increased from 34% at enrollment to 97% by the end of the study. Adenovirus was most commonly detected in the environment on pillows, lockers, and rifles. Potential sources of adenovirus transmission among US military recruits included the presence of adenovirus on surfaces in living quarters and extended pharyngeal viral shedding over the course of several days. The introduction of new recruits, who were still shedding adenovirus, into new training groups was documented. Serological screening could identify susceptible recruits for the optimal use of available vaccines. New high-throughput technologies show promise in providing valuable data for clinical and research applications.

  20. Modelling the transmission dynamics of Theileria annulata: model structure and validation for the Turkish context

    PubMed Central

    SUTTON, A. J.; KARAGENC, T.; BAKIRCI, S.; SARALI, H.; PEKEL, G.; MEDLEY, G. F.

    2012-01-01

    SUMMARY A mathematical model that describes the transmission dynamics of Theileria annulata is proposed that consists of 2 host components: the Hyalomma tick population and a compartmental model of T. annulata infection in the cattle population. The model was parameterized using data describing tick infestation and the infection status of cattle in Turkey from 2006 to 2008. The tick attachment rates are highly seasonal and because of the temporal separation of infectious and susceptible ticks virtually all ticks are infected by carrier cattle, so that annual peaks of disease in cattle do not impact on infection in the Hyalomma tick population. The impact of intervention measures that target the tick population both on the host and in the environment and their impact on the transmission of T. annulata were investigated. Interventions that have a limited ‘one-off’ impact and interventions that have a more permanent impact were both considered. The results from the model show the importance of targeting ticks during the period when they have left their first host as nymphs but have yet to feed on their second host. PMID:22309815

  1. Studying Dynamic Processes of Nano-sized Objects in Liquid using Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy.

    PubMed

    Hermannsdörfer, Justus; de Jonge, Niels

    2017-02-05

    Samples fully embedded in liquid can be studied at a nanoscale spatial resolution with Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (STEM) using a microfluidic chamber assembled in the specimen holder for Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) and STEM. The microfluidic system consists of two silicon microchips supporting thin Silicon Nitride (SiN) membrane windows. This article describes the basic steps of sample loading and data acquisition. Most important of all is to ensure that the liquid compartment is correctly assembled, thus providing a thin liquid layer and a vacuum seal. This protocol also includes a number of tests necessary to perform during sample loading in order to ensure correct assembly. Once the sample is loaded in the electron microscope, the liquid thickness needs to be measured. Incorrect assembly may result in a too-thick liquid, while a too-thin liquid may indicate the absence of liquid, such as when a bubble is formed. Finally, the protocol explains how images are taken and how dynamic processes can be studied. A sample containing AuNPs is imaged both in pure water and in saline.

  2. Dynamical tuning between nearly perfect reflection, absorption, and transmission of light via graphene/dielectric structures

    PubMed Central

    Linder, Jacob; Halterman, Klaus

    2016-01-01

    Exerting well-defined control over the reflection (R), absorption (A), and transmission (T) of electromagnetic waves is a key objective in quantum optics. To this end, one often utilizes hybrid structures comprised of elements with different optical properties in order to achieve features such as high R or high A for incident light. A desirable goal would be the possibility to tune between all three regimes of nearly perfect reflection, absorption, and transmission within the same device, thus swapping between the cases R → 1, A → 1, and T → 1 dynamically. We here show that a dielectric interfaced with a graphene layer on each side allows for precisely this: by tuning only the Fermi level of graphene, all three regimes can be reached in the THz regime and below. Moreover, we show that the inclusion of cylindrical defects in the system offers a different type of control of the scattering of electromagnetic waves by means of the graphene layers. PMID:27917886

  3. Studying Dynamic Processes of Nano-sized Objects in Liquid using Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy

    PubMed Central

    Hermannsdörfer, Justus; de Jonge, Niels

    2017-01-01

    Samples fully embedded in liquid can be studied at a nanoscale spatial resolution with Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (STEM) using a microfluidic chamber assembled in the specimen holder for Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) and STEM. The microfluidic system consists of two silicon microchips supporting thin Silicon Nitride (SiN) membrane windows. This article describes the basic steps of sample loading and data acquisition. Most important of all is to ensure that the liquid compartment is correctly assembled, thus providing a thin liquid layer and a vacuum seal. This protocol also includes a number of tests necessary to perform during sample loading in order to ensure correct assembly. Once the sample is loaded in the electron microscope, the liquid thickness needs to be measured. Incorrect assembly may result in a too-thick liquid, while a too-thin liquid may indicate the absence of liquid, such as when a bubble is formed. Finally, the protocol explains how images are taken and how dynamic processes can be studied. A sample containing AuNPs is imaged both in pure water and in saline. PMID:28190028

  4. Dynamic horizontal cultural transmission of humpback whale song at the ocean basin scale.

    PubMed

    Garland, Ellen C; Goldizen, Anne W; Rekdahl, Melinda L; Constantine, Rochelle; Garrigue, Claire; Hauser, Nan Daeschler; Poole, M Michael; Robbins, Jooke; Noad, Michael J

    2011-04-26

    Cultural transmission, the social learning of information or behaviors from conspecifics, is believed to occur in a number of groups of animals, including primates, cetaceans, and birds. Cultural traits can be passed vertically (from parents to offspring), obliquely (from the previous generation via a nonparent model to younger individuals), or horizontally (between unrelated individuals from similar age classes or within generations). Male humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) have a highly stereotyped, repetitive, and progressively evolving vocal sexual display or "song" that functions in sexual selection (through mate attraction and/or male social sorting). All males within a population conform to the current version of the display (song type), and similarities may exist among the songs of populations within an ocean basin. Here we present a striking pattern of horizontal transmission: multiple song types spread rapidly and repeatedly in a unidirectional manner, like cultural ripples, eastward through the populations in the western and central South Pacific over an 11-year period. This is the first documentation of a repeated, dynamic cultural change occurring across multiple populations at such a large geographic scale. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Dynamic analysis of flexible gear trains/transmissions - An automated approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Amirouche, F. M. L.; Shareef, N. H.; Xie, M.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper an automated algorithmic method is presented for the dynamic analysis of geared trains/transmissions. These are treated as a system of interconnected flexible bodies. The procedure developed explains the switching of constraints with time as a result of the change in the contacting areas at the gear teeth. The elastic behavior of the system is studied through the employment of three-dimensional isoparametric elements having six degrees-of-freedom at each node. The contact between the bodies is assumed at the various nodes, which could be either a line or a plane. The kinematical expressions, together with the equations of motion using Kane's method, strain energy concepts, are presented in a matrix form suitable for computer implementation. The constraint Jacobian matrices are generated automatically based on the contact information between the bodies. The concepts of the relative velocity at the contacting points at the tooth pairs and the subsequent use of the transmission ratios in the analysis is presented.

  6. Intergenerational Wealth Transmission and the Dynamics of Inequality in Small-Scale Societies*

    PubMed Central

    Mulder, Monique Borgerhoff; Bowles, Samuel; Hertz, Tom; Bell, Adrian; Beise, Jan; Clark, Greg; Fazzio, Ila; Gurven, Michael; Hill, Kim; Hooper, Paul L.; Irons, William; Kaplan, Hillard; Leonetti, Donna; Low, Bobbi; Marlowe, Frank; McElreath, Richard; Naidu, Suresh; Nolin, David; Piraino, Patrizio; Quinlan, Rob; Schniter, Eric; Sear, Rebecca; Shenk, Mary; Smith, Eric Alden; von Rueden, Christopher; Wiessner, Polly

    2009-01-01

    Small-scale human societies range from foraging bands with a strong egalitarian ethos to more economically stratified agrarian and pastoral societies. We explain this variation in inequality using a dynamic model in which a population’s long-run steady-state level of inequality depends on the extent to which its most important forms of wealth are transmitted within families across generations. We estimate the degree of intergenerational transmission of three different types of wealth (material, embodied, and relational) as well as the extent of wealth inequality in 21 historical and contemporary populations. We show that intergenerational transmission of wealth and wealth inequality are substantial among pastoral and small-scale agricultural societies (on a par with or even exceeding the most unequal modern industrial economies) and quite limited among horticultural and foraging peoples (equivalent to the most egalitarian of modern industrial populations). Differences in the technology by which a people derive their livelihood and in the institutions and norms making up the economic system jointly contribute to this pattern. PMID:19900925

  7. Transmission Loss Calculation using A and B Loss Coefficients in Dynamic Economic Dispatch Problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jethmalani, C. H. Ram; Dumpa, Poornima; Simon, Sishaj P.; Sundareswaran, K.

    2016-04-01

    This paper analyzes the performance of A-loss coefficients while evaluating transmission losses in a Dynamic Economic Dispatch (DED) Problem. The performance analysis is carried out by comparing the losses computed using nominal A loss coefficients and nominal B loss coefficients in reference with load flow solution obtained by standard Newton-Raphson (NR) method. Density based clustering method based on connected regions with sufficiently high density (DBSCAN) is employed in identifying the best regions of A and B loss coefficients. Based on the results obtained through cluster analysis, a novel approach in improving the accuracy of network loss calculation is proposed. Here, based on the change in per unit load values between the load intervals, loss coefficients are updated for calculating the transmission losses. The proposed algorithm is tested and validated on IEEE 6 bus system, IEEE 14 bus, system IEEE 30 bus system and IEEE 118 bus system. All simulations are carried out using SCILAB 5.4 (www.scilab.org) which is an open source software.

  8. Genetic diversity, transmission dynamics and drug resistance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Angola.

    PubMed

    Perdigão, João; Clemente, Sofia; Ramos, Jorge; Masakidi, Pedro; Machado, Diana; Silva, Carla; Couto, Isabel; Viveiros, Miguel; Taveira, Nuno; Portugal, Isabel

    2017-02-23

    Tuberculosis (TB) poses a serious public health problem in Angola. No surveillance data on drug resistance is available and nothing is known regarding the genetic diversity and population structure of circulating Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains. Here, we have genotyped and evaluated drug susceptibility of 89 Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates from Luanda. Thirty-three different spoligotype profiles corresponding to 24 different Shared International Types (SIT) and 9 orphan profiles were detected. SIT 20 (LAM1) was the most prevalent (n = 16, 18.2%) followed by SIT 42 (LAM9; n = 15, 17.1%). Overall, the M. tuberculosis population structure in this sample was dominated by LAM (64.8%) and T (33.0%) strains. Twenty-four-loci MIRU-VNTR analysis revealed that a total of 13 isolates were grouped in 5 distinct clusters. Drug susceptibility data showed that 22 (24.7%) of the 89 clinical isolates were resistant to one or more antibacillary drugs of which 4 (4.5%) were multidrug resistant. In conclusion, this study demonstrates a high predominance of LAM strains circulating in the Luanda setting and the presence of recent transmission events. The rate and the emergence dynamics of drug resistant TB found in this sample are significant and highlight the need of further studies specifically focused on MDR-TB transmission.

  9. The primary case is not enough: Variation among individuals, groups and social networks modify bacterial transmission dynamics.

    PubMed

    Keiser, Carl N; Pinter-Wollman, Noa; Ziemba, Michael J; Kothamasu, Krishna S; Pruitt, Jonathan N

    2018-03-01

    The traits of the primary case of an infectious disease outbreak, and the circumstances for their aetiology, potentially influence the trajectory of transmission dynamics. However, these dynamics likely also depend on the traits of the individuals with whom the primary case interacts. We used the social spider Stegodyphus dumicola to test how the traits of the primary case, group phenotypic composition and group size interact to facilitate the transmission of a GFP-labelled cuticular bacterium. We also compared bacterial transmission across experimentally generated "daisy-chain" vs. "star" networks of social interactions. Finally, we compared social network structure across groups of different sizes. Groups of 10 spiders experienced more bacterial transmission events compared to groups of 30 spiders, regardless of groups' behavioural composition. Groups containing only one bold spider experienced the lowest levels of bacterial transmission regardless of group size. We found no evidence for the traits of the primary case influencing any transmission dynamics. In a second experiment, bacteria were transmitted to more individuals in experimentally induced star networks than in daisy-chains, on which transmission never exceeded three steps. In both experimental network types, transmission success depended jointly on the behavioural traits of the interacting individuals; however, the behavioural traits of the primary case were only important for transmission on star networks. Larger social groups exhibited lower interaction density (i.e. had a low ratio of observed to possible connections) and were more modular, i.e. they had more connections between nodes within a subgroup and fewer connections across subgroups. Thus, larger groups may restrict transmission by forming fewer interactions and by isolating subgroups that interacted with the primary case. These findings suggest that accounting for the traits of single exposed hosts has less power in predicting transmission

  10. Predicting lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination dynamics using a multi-model ensemble framework.

    PubMed

    Smith, Morgan E; Singh, Brajendra K; Irvine, Michael A; Stolk, Wilma A; Subramanian, Swaminathan; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Michael, Edwin

    2017-03-01

    Mathematical models of parasite transmission provide powerful tools for assessing the impacts of interventions. Owing to complexity and uncertainty, no single model may capture all features of transmission and elimination dynamics. Multi-model ensemble modelling offers a framework to help overcome biases of single models. We report on the development of a first multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and evaluate its predictive performance in comparison with that of the constituents using calibration and validation data from three case study sites, one each from the three major LF endemic regions: Africa, Southeast Asia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). We assessed the performance of the respective models for predicting the outcomes of annual MDA strategies for various baseline scenarios thought to exemplify the current endemic conditions in the three regions. The results show that the constructed multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models when evaluated across all sites. Single models that best fitted calibration data tended to do less well in simulating the out-of-sample, or validation, intervention data. Scenario modelling results demonstrate that the multi-model ensemble is able to compensate for variance between single models in order to produce more plausible predictions of intervention impacts. Our results highlight the value of an ensemble approach to modelling parasite control dynamics. However, its optimal use will require further methodological improvements as well as consideration of the organizational mechanisms required to ensure that modelling results and data are shared effectively between all stakeholders. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Effect of lactation therapy on Staphylococcus aureus transmission dynamics in two commercial dairy herds

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Treatment of subclinical mastitis during lactation can have both direct (individual animal level) and indirect (population level) effects. With a few exceptions, prior research has focused on evaluating the direct effects of mastitis treatment, and to date no controlled field trials have been conducted to test whether beneficial indirect effects of lactation treatment strategies targeting subclinical mastitis can be demonstrated on commercial dairy farms. Furthermore, there is limited knowledge on the impact of such interventions on the population dynamics of specific bacterial strains. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that lactation therapy targeting S. aureus subclinical intramammary infection reduces transmission of S. aureus strains within dairy herds. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) were used to determine strain specific infection dynamics in treated and control groups in a split herd trial conducted on 2 commercial dairy farms. Results The direct effect of 8 days intramammary lactation therapy with pirlimycin hydrochloride was demonstrated by an increased proportion of cure and a reduction in duration of infection in quarters receiving treatment compared to untreated controls. The indirect effect of lactation therapy was demonstrated by reduction of new S. aureus intramammary infections (IMI) caused by the dominant strain type in both herds. Strain typing of representative isolates taken over the duration of all IMI, including pre- and post-treatment isolates, provided more precise estimates of new infection, cure, and re-infection rates. New S. aureus infections in recovered susceptible quarters and the emergence of a new strain type in one herd influenced incidence measures. Conclusion In addition to demonstrating positive direct effects of lactation therapy, this study provides evidence that treatment of subclinical S. aureus mastitis during lactation can have indirect effects

  12. Effect of lactation therapy on Staphylococcus aureus transmission dynamics in two commercial dairy herds.

    PubMed

    Barlow, John W; Zadoks, Ruth N; Schukken, Ynte H

    2013-02-11

    Treatment of subclinical mastitis during lactation can have both direct (individual animal level) and indirect (population level) effects. With a few exceptions, prior research has focused on evaluating the direct effects of mastitis treatment, and to date no controlled field trials have been conducted to test whether beneficial indirect effects of lactation treatment strategies targeting subclinical mastitis can be demonstrated on commercial dairy farms. Furthermore, there is limited knowledge on the impact of such interventions on the population dynamics of specific bacterial strains. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that lactation therapy targeting S. aureus subclinical intramammary infection reduces transmission of S. aureus strains within dairy herds. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) were used to determine strain specific infection dynamics in treated and control groups in a split herd trial conducted on 2 commercial dairy farms. The direct effect of 8 days intramammary lactation therapy with pirlimycin hydrochloride was demonstrated by an increased proportion of cure and a reduction in duration of infection in quarters receiving treatment compared to untreated controls. The indirect effect of lactation therapy was demonstrated by reduction of new S. aureus intramammary infections (IMI) caused by the dominant strain type in both herds. Strain typing of representative isolates taken over the duration of all IMI, including pre- and post-treatment isolates, provided more precise estimates of new infection, cure, and re-infection rates. New S. aureus infections in recovered susceptible quarters and the emergence of a new strain type in one herd influenced incidence measures. In addition to demonstrating positive direct effects of lactation therapy, this study provides evidence that treatment of subclinical S. aureus mastitis during lactation can have indirect effects including preventing new IMI and

  13. Transmission Dynamics of the Four Dengue Serotypes in Southern Vietnam and the Potential Impact of Vaccination

    PubMed Central

    Coudeville, Laurent; Garnett, Geoff P.

    2012-01-01

    Background With approximately 2.5 billion people at risk, dengue is a major international public health concern. Dengue vaccines currently in development should help reduce the burden associated with this disease but the most efficient way of using future dengue vaccines remains to be defined. Mathematical models of transmission can provide insight into the expected impact of different vaccination strategies at a population level and contribute to this definition. Methods and Findings We developed and analyzed an age-structured, host-vector and serotype-specific compartmental model, including seasonality. We first used this transmission model to identify the immunological interactions between serotypes that affect the risks and consequences of secondary infections (cross-protection, increased susceptibility, increased severity, and increased infectiousness) and reproduce the observed epidemiology of dengue. For populating this model, we used routine surveillance data from Southern Vietnam and the results of a prospective cohort study conducted in the same area. The model provided a good fit to the observed data for age, severity of cases, serotype distribution, and dynamics over time, using two scenarios of immunological interaction : short term cross-protection alone (6–17 months) or a combination of short term cross-protection with cross-enhancement (increased susceptibility, severity and infectiousness in the case of secondary infections). Finally, we explored the potential impact of vaccination for these two scenarios. Both highlighted that vaccination can substantially decrease dengue burden by reducing the magnitude and frequency of outbreaks. Conclusion Our model suggests that seasonality and short term cross-protection are key factors for explaining dengue dynamics in Southern Vietnam. Vaccination was predicted to significantly reduce the disease burden, even in the situation where immunological cross-enhancement affects the risks and consequences of

  14. Tackling the Challenges of Dynamic Experiments Using Liquid-Cell Transmission Electron Microscopy.

    PubMed

    Parent, Lucas R; Bakalis, Evangelos; Proetto, Maria; Li, Yiwen; Park, Chiwoo; Zerbetto, Francesco; Gianneschi, Nathan C

    2018-01-16

    Revolutions in science and engineering frequently result from the development, and wide adoption, of a new, powerful characterization or imaging technique. Beginning with the first glass lenses and telescopes in astronomy, to the development of visual-light microscopy, staining techniques, confocal microscopy, and fluorescence super-resolution microscopy in biology, and most recently aberration-corrected, cryogenic, and ultrafast (4D) electron microscopy, X-ray microscopy, and scanning probe microscopy in nanoscience. Through these developments, our perception and understanding of the physical nature of matter at length-scales beyond ordinary perception have been fundamentally transformed. Despite this progression in microscopy, techniques for observing nanoscale chemical processes and solvated/hydrated systems are limited, as the necessary spatial and temporal resolution presents significant technical challenges. However, the standard reliance on indirect or bulk phase characterization of nanoscale samples in liquids is undergoing a shift in recent times with the realization ( Williamson et al. Nat. Mater . 2003 , 2 , 532 - 536 ) of liquid-cell (scanning) transmission electron microscopy, LC(S)TEM, where picoliters of solution are hermetically sealed between electron-transparent "windows," which can be directly imaged or videoed at the nanoscale using conventional transmission electron microscopes. This Account seeks to open a discussion on the topic of standardizing strategies for conducting imaging experiments with a view to characterizing dynamics and motion of nanoscale materials. This is a challenge that could be described by critics and proponents alike, as analogous to doing chemistry in a lightning storm; where the nature of the solution, the nanomaterial, and the dynamic behaviors are all potentially subject to artifactual influence by the very act of our observation.

  15. Electron beam dynamics in an ultrafast transmission electron microscope with Wehnelt electrode.

    PubMed

    Bücker, K; Picher, M; Crégut, O; LaGrange, T; Reed, B W; Park, S T; Masiel, D J; Banhart, F

    2016-12-01

    High temporal resolution transmission electron microscopy techniques have shown significant progress in recent years. Using photoelectron pulses induced by ultrashort laser pulses on the cathode, these methods can probe ultrafast materials processes and have revealed numerous dynamic phenomena at the nanoscale. Most recently, the technique has been implemented in standard thermionic electron microscopes that provide a flexible platform for studying material's dynamics over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, the electron pulses in such an ultrafast transmission electron microscope are characterized in detail. The microscope is based on a thermionic gun with a Wehnelt electrode and is operated in a stroboscopic photoelectron mode. It is shown that the Wehnelt bias has a decisive influence on the temporal and energy spread of the picosecond electron pulses. Depending on the shape of the cathode and the cathode-Wehnelt distance, different emission patterns with different pulse parameters are obtained. The energy spread of the pulses is determined by space charge and Boersch effects, given by the number of electrons in a pulse. However, filtering effects due to the chromatic aberrations of the Wehnelt electrode allow the extraction of pulses with narrow energy spreads. The temporal spread is governed by electron trajectories of different length and in different electrostatic potentials. High temporal resolution is obtained by excluding shank emission from the cathode and aberration-induced halos in the emission pattern. By varying the cathode-Wehnelt gap, the Wehnelt bias, and the number of photoelectrons in a pulse, tradeoffs between energy and temporal resolution as well as beam intensity can be made as needed for experiments. Based on the characterization of the electron pulses, the optimal conditions for the operation of ultrafast TEMs with thermionic gun assembly are elaborated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Vietnam and Indonesia: diverging care dynamics.

    PubMed

    Hardon, Anita Petra; Oosterhoff, Pauline; Imelda, Johanna D; Anh, Nguyen Thu; Hidayana, Irwan

    2009-09-01

    How do women and frontline health workers engage in preventing mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) in urban areas of Vietnam and Indonesia, where HIV is highly stigmatized and is associated with injecting drug use and sex work? This qualitative study explores local dynamics of care, using a mix of observations, focus group discussions, and interviews. In Indonesia the study was conducted in a community-based PMTCT program run by an NGO, while in Vietnam the study explored the care dynamics in routine PMTCT services, implemented by district and provincial public health facilities. In both of these PMTCT arrangements (the routine provider initiated approach in Vietnam and a more client-oriented system in Indonesia), pregnant women value the provision of HIV tests in antenatal care (ANC). Concerns are raised, however, by the unhappy few who test positive. These women are unsatisfied with the quality of counselling, and the failure to provide antiretroviral treatments. Acceptability of HIV testing in ANC is high, but the key policy issue from the perspective of pregnant women is whether the PMTCT services can provide good quality counselling and the necessary follow-up care. We find local level providers of PMTCT are pleased with the PMTCT program. In Vietnam, the PMTCT program offers health workers protection against HIV, since they can refer women away from the district health service for delivery. In Indonesia, community cadres are pleased with the financial incentives gained by mobilizing clients for the program. We conclude that achieving the global aims of reducing HIV infections in children by 50% requires a tailoring of globally designed public health programs to context-specific gendered transmission pathways of HIV, as well as local opportunities for follow-up care and social support.

  17. Youth Depression and Early Childrearing: Stress Generation and Intergenerational Transmission of Depression

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hammen, Constance; Brennan, Patricia A.; Le Brocque, Robyne

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Broadening the concept of stress generation beyond acute life events, the current study explores predictors of the creation of stressful environments--specifically, selection into early childrearing by age 20. It was predicted that youth with early onset depressive disorders would be at higher risk for early childrearing accompanied by…

  18. Contrasting Transmission Dynamics of Co-endemic Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum: Implications for Malaria Control and Elimination

    PubMed Central

    Noviyanti, Rintis; Coutrier, Farah; Utami, Retno A. S.; Trimarsanto, Hidayat; Tirta, Yusrifar K.; Trianty, Leily; Kusuma, Andreas; Sutanto, Inge; Kosasih, Ayleen; Kusriastuti, Rita; Hawley, William A.; Laihad, Ferdinand; Lobo, Neil; Marfurt, Jutta; Clark, Taane G.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    Background Outside of Africa, P. falciparum and P. vivax usually coexist. In such co-endemic regions, successful malaria control programs have a greater impact on reducing falciparum malaria, resulting in P. vivax becoming the predominant species of infection. Adding to the challenges of elimination, the dormant liver stage complicates efforts to monitor the impact of ongoing interventions against P. vivax. We investigated molecular approaches to inform the respective transmission dynamics of P. falciparum and P. vivax and how these could help to prioritize public health interventions. Methodology/ Principal Findings Genotype data generated at 8 and 9 microsatellite loci were analysed in 168 P. falciparum and 166 P. vivax isolates, respectively, from four co-endemic sites in Indonesia (Bangka, Kalimantan, Sumba and West Timor). Measures of diversity, linkage disequilibrium (LD) and population structure were used to gauge the transmission dynamics of each species in each setting. Marked differences were observed in the diversity and population structure of P. vivax versus P. falciparum. In Bangka, Kalimantan and Timor, P. falciparum diversity was low, and LD patterns were consistent with unstable, epidemic transmission, amenable to targeted intervention. In contrast, P. vivax diversity was higher and transmission appeared more stable. Population differentiation was lower in P. vivax versus P. falciparum, suggesting that the hypnozoite reservoir might play an important role in sustaining local transmission and facilitating the spread of P. vivax infections in different endemic settings. P. vivax polyclonality varied with local endemicity, demonstrating potential utility in informing on transmission intensity in this species. Conclusions/ Significance Molecular approaches can provide important information on malaria transmission that is not readily available from traditional epidemiological measures. Elucidation of the transmission dynamics circulating in a given

  19. Contrasting Transmission Dynamics of Co-endemic Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum: Implications for Malaria Control and Elimination.

    PubMed

    Noviyanti, Rintis; Coutrier, Farah; Utami, Retno A S; Trimarsanto, Hidayat; Tirta, Yusrifar K; Trianty, Leily; Kusuma, Andreas; Sutanto, Inge; Kosasih, Ayleen; Kusriastuti, Rita; Hawley, William A; Laihad, Ferdinand; Lobo, Neil; Marfurt, Jutta; Clark, Taane G; Price, Ric N; Auburn, Sarah

    2015-05-01

    Outside of Africa, P. falciparum and P. vivax usually coexist. In such co-endemic regions, successful malaria control programs have a greater impact on reducing falciparum malaria, resulting in P. vivax becoming the predominant species of infection. Adding to the challenges of elimination, the dormant liver stage complicates efforts to monitor the impact of ongoing interventions against P. vivax. We investigated molecular approaches to inform the respective transmission dynamics of P. falciparum and P. vivax and how these could help to prioritize public health interventions. Genotype data generated at 8 and 9 microsatellite loci were analysed in 168 P. falciparum and 166 P. vivax isolates, respectively, from four co-endemic sites in Indonesia (Bangka, Kalimantan, Sumba and West Timor). Measures of diversity, linkage disequilibrium (LD) and population structure were used to gauge the transmission dynamics of each species in each setting. Marked differences were observed in the diversity and population structure of P. vivax versus P. falciparum. In Bangka, Kalimantan and Timor, P. falciparum diversity was low, and LD patterns were consistent with unstable, epidemic transmission, amenable to targeted intervention. In contrast, P. vivax diversity was higher and transmission appeared more stable. Population differentiation was lower in P. vivax versus P. falciparum, suggesting that the hypnozoite reservoir might play an important role in sustaining local transmission and facilitating the spread of P. vivax infections in different endemic settings. P. vivax polyclonality varied with local endemicity, demonstrating potential utility in informing on transmission intensity in this species. Molecular approaches can provide important information on malaria transmission that is not readily available from traditional epidemiological measures. Elucidation of the transmission dynamics circulating in a given setting will have a major role in prioritising malaria control strategies

  20. High-speed nanoscale characterization of dewetting via dynamic transmission electron microscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hihath, Sahar; Santala, Melissa K.; Campbell, Geoffrey; van Benthem, Klaus

    2016-08-01

    The dewetting of thin films can occur in either the solid or the liquid state for which different mass transport mechanisms are expected to control morphological changes. Traditionally, dewetting dynamics have been examined on time scales between several seconds to hours, and length scales ranging between nanometers and millimeters. The determination of mass transport mechanisms on the nanoscale, however, requires nanoscale spatial resolution and much shorter time scales. This study reports the high-speed observation of dewetting phenomena for kinetically constrained Ni thin films on crystalline SrTiO3 substrates. Movie-mode Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscopy (DTEM) was used for high-speed image acquisition during thin film dewetting at different temperatures. DTEM imaging confirmed that the initial stages of film agglomeration include edge retraction, hole formation, and growth. Finite element modeling was used to simulate temperature distributions within the DTEM samples after laser irradiation with different energies. For pulsed laser irradiation at 18 μJ, experimentally observed hole growth suggests that Marangoni flow dominates hole formation in the liquid nickel film. After irradiation with 13.8 μJ, however, the observations suggest that dewetting was initiated by nucleation of voids followed by hole growth through solid-state surface diffusion.

  1. Dynamic Control over the Optical Transmission of Nanoscale Dielectric Metasurface by Alkali Vapors.

    PubMed

    Bar-David, Jonathan; Stern, Liron; Levy, Uriel

    2017-02-08

    In recent years, dielectric and metallic nanoscale metasurfaces are attracting growing attention and are being used for variety of applications. Resulting from the ability to introduce abrupt changes in optical properties at nanoscale dimensions, metasurfaces enable unprecedented control over light's different degrees of freedom, in an essentially two-dimensional configuration. Yet, the dynamic control over metasurface properties still remains one of the ultimate goals of this field. Here, we demonstrate the optical resonant interaction between a form birefringent dielectric metasurface made of silicon and alkali atomic vapor to control and effectively tune the optical transmission pattern initially generated by the nanoscale dielectric metasurface. By doing so, we present a controllable metasurface system, the output of which may be altered by applying magnetic fields, changing input polarization, or shifting the optical frequency. Furthermore, we also demonstrate the nonlinear behavior of our system taking advantage of the saturation effect of atomic transition. The demonstrated approach paves the way for using metasurfaces in applications where dynamic tunability of the metasurface is in need, for example, for scanning systems, tunable focusing, real time displays, and more.

  2. A wearable wireless ECG monitoring system with dynamic transmission power control for long-term homecare.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yishan; Doleschel, Sammy; Wunderlich, Ralf; Heinen, Stefan

    2015-03-01

    This paper presents a wearable wireless ECG monitoring system based on novel 3-Lead electrode placements for long-term homecare. The experiment for novel 3-Lead electrode placements is carried out, and the results show that the distance between limb electrodes can be significantly reduced. Based on the new electrode position, a small size sensor node, which is powered by a rechargeable battery, is designed to detect, amplify, filter and transmit the ECG signals. The coordinator receives the data and sends it to PC. Finally the signals are displayed on the GUI. In order to control the power consumption of sensor node, a dynamic power adjustment method is applied to automatically adjust the transmission power of the sensor node according to the received signal strength indicator (RSSI), which is related to the distance and obstacle between sensor node and coordinator. The system is evaluated when the user, who wears the sensor, is walking and running. A promising performance is achieved even under body motion. The power consumption can be significantly reduced with this dynamic power adjustment method.

  3. High-speed nanoscale characterization of dewetting via dynamic transmission electron microscopy

    SciTech Connect

    Hihath, Sahar; Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Ave., Davis, California 95616; Santala, Melissa K.

    The dewetting of thin films can occur in either the solid or the liquid state for which different mass transport mechanisms are expected to control morphological changes. Traditionally, dewetting dynamics have been examined on time scales between several seconds to hours, and length scales ranging between nanometers and millimeters. The determination of mass transport mechanisms on the nanoscale, however, requires nanoscale spatial resolution and much shorter time scales. This study reports the high-speed observation of dewetting phenomena for kinetically constrained Ni thin films on crystalline SrTiO{sub 3} substrates. Movie-mode Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscopy (DTEM) was used for high-speed image acquisitionmore » during thin film dewetting at different temperatures. DTEM imaging confirmed that the initial stages of film agglomeration include edge retraction, hole formation, and growth. Finite element modeling was used to simulate temperature distributions within the DTEM samples after laser irradiation with different energies. For pulsed laser irradiation at 18 μJ, experimentally observed hole growth suggests that Marangoni flow dominates hole formation in the liquid nickel film. After irradiation with 13.8 μJ, however, the observations suggest that dewetting was initiated by nucleation of voids followed by hole growth through solid-state surface diffusion.« less

  4. Epidemic characterization and modeling within herd transmission dynamics of an "emerging trans-boundary" camel disease epidemic in Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Megersa, Bekele; Biffa, Demelash; Abunna, Fufa; Regassa, Alemayehu; Bohlin, Jon; Skjerve, Eystein

    2012-10-01

    A highly acute and contagious camel disease, an epidemic wave of unknown etiology, referred to here as camel sudden death syndrome, has plagued camel population in countries in the Horn of Africa. To better understand its epidemic patterns and transmission dynamics, we used epidemiologic parameters and differential equation deterministic modeling (SEIR/D-model) to predict the outcome likelihood following an exposure of susceptible camel population. Our results showed 45.7, 17.6, and 38.6 % overall morbidity, mortality, and case fatality rates of the epidemic, respectively. Pregnant camels had the highest mortality and case fatality rates, followed by breeding males, and lactating females, implying serious socioeconomic consequences. Disease dynamics appeared to be linked to livestock trade route and animal movements. The epidemic exhibited a strong basic reproductive number (R (0)) with an average of 16 camels infected by one infectious case during the entire infectious period. The epidemic curve suggested that the critical moment of the disease development is approximately between 30 and 40 days, where both infected/exposed and infectious camels are at their highest numbers. The lag between infected/infectious curves indicates a time-shift of approximately 3-5 days from when a camel is infected and until it becomes infectious. According to this predictive model, of all animals exposed to the infection, 66.8 % (n = 868) and 33.2 % (n = 431) had recovered and died, respectively, at the end of epidemic period. Hence, if early measures are not taken, such an epidemic could cause a much more devastative effect, within short period of time than the anticipated proportion.

  5. Early-phase transmission of Yersinia pestis by unblocked fleas as a mechanism explaining rapidly spreading plague epizootics.

    PubMed

    Eisen, Rebecca J; Bearden, Scott W; Wilder, Aryn P; Montenieri, John A; Antolin, Michael F; Gage, Kenneth L

    2006-10-17

    Plague is a highly virulent disease believed to have killed millions during three historic human pandemics. Worldwide, it remains a threat to humans and is a potential agent of bioterrorism. Dissemination of Yersinia pestis, the etiological agent of plague, by blocked fleas has been the accepted paradigm for flea-borne transmission. However, this mechanism, which requires a lengthy extrinsic incubation period before a short infectious window often followed by death of the flea, cannot sufficiently explain the rapid rate of spread that typifies plague epidemics and epizootics. Inconsistencies between the expected rate of spread by blocked rat fleas and that observed during the Black Death has even caused speculation that plague was not the cause of this medieval pandemic. We used the primary vector to humans in North America, Oropsylla montana, which rarely becomes blocked, as a model for studying alternative flea-borne transmission mechanisms. Our data revealed that, in contrast to the classical blocked flea model, O. montana is immediately infectious, transmits efficiently for at least 4 d postinfection (early phase) and may remain infectious for a long time because the fleas do not suffer block-induced mortality. These factors match the criteria required to drive plague epizootics as defined by recently published mathematical models. The scenario of efficient early-phase transmission by unblocked fleas described in our study calls for a paradigm shift in concepts of how Y. pestis is transmitted during rapidly spreading epizootics and epidemics, including, perhaps, the Black Death.

  6. Cost-effectiveness of vaccination with a quadrivalent HPV vaccine in Germany using a dynamic transmission model

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Persistent infections with human papillomavirus (HPV) are a necessary cause of cervical cancer and are responsible for important morbidity in men and women. Since 2007, HPV vaccination has been recommended and funded for all girls aged 12 to 17 in Germany. A previously published cost-effectiveness analysis, using a static model, showed that a quadrivalent HPV vaccination programme for 12-year-old girls in Germany would be cost effective. Here we present the results from a dynamic transmission model that can be used to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of different vaccination schemas. Methods We adapted a HPV dynamic transmission model, which has been used in other countries, to the German context. The model was used to compare a cervical cancer screening only strategy with a strategy of combining vaccination of females aged 12–17 years old and cervical cancer screening, based on the current recommendations in Germany. In addition, the impact of increasing vaccination coverage in this cohort of females aged 12–17 years old was evaluated in sensitivity analysis. Results The results from this analysis show that the current quadrivalent HPV vaccination programme of females ages 12 to 17 in Germany is cost-effective with an ICER of 5,525€/QALY (quality adjusted life year). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) increased to 10,293€/QALY when the vaccine effects on HPV6/11 diseases were excluded. At steady state, the model predicted that vaccinating girls aged 12 to 17 could reduce the number of HPV 6/11/16/18-related cervical cancers by 65% and genital warts among women and men by 70% and 48%, respectively. The impact on HPV-related disease incidence and costs avoided would occur relatively soon after initiating the vaccine programme, with much of the early impact being due to the prevention of HPV6/11-related genital warts. Conclusions These results show that the current quadrivalent HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening

  7. Cost-effectiveness of vaccination with a quadrivalent HPV vaccine in Germany using a dynamic transmission model.

    PubMed

    Schobert, Deniz; Remy, Vanessa; Schoeffski, Oliver

    2012-09-25

    Persistent infections with human papillomavirus (HPV) are a necessary cause of cervical cancer and are responsible for important morbidity in men and women. Since 2007, HPV vaccination has been recommended and funded for all girls aged 12 to 17 in Germany. A previously published cost-effectiveness analysis, using a static model, showed that a quadrivalent HPV vaccination programme for 12-year-old girls in Germany would be cost effective. Here we present the results from a dynamic transmission model that can be used to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of different vaccination schemas. We adapted a HPV dynamic transmission model, which has been used in other countries, to the German context. The model was used to compare a cervical cancer screening only strategy with a strategy of combining vaccination of females aged 12-17 years old and cervical cancer screening, based on the current recommendations in Germany. In addition, the impact of increasing vaccination coverage in this cohort of females aged 12-17 years old was evaluated in sensitivity analysis. The results from this analysis show that the current quadrivalent HPV vaccination programme of females ages 12 to 17 in Germany is cost-effective with an ICER of 5,525€/QALY (quality adjusted life year). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) increased to 10,293€/QALY when the vaccine effects on HPV6/11 diseases were excluded. At steady state, the model predicted that vaccinating girls aged 12 to 17 could reduce the number of HPV 6/11/16/18-related cervical cancers by 65% and genital warts among women and men by 70% and 48%, respectively. The impact on HPV-related disease incidence and costs avoided would occur relatively soon after initiating the vaccine programme, with much of the early impact being due to the prevention of HPV6/11-related genital warts. These results show that the current quadrivalent HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening programmes in Germany will substantially

  8. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Scrub Typhus Transmission in Mainland China, 2006-2014

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Wen-Biao; Haque, Ubydul; Weppelmann, Thomas A.; Wang, Yong; Liu, Yun-Xi; Li, Xin-Lou; Sun, Hai-Long; Sun, Yan-Song; Clements, Archie C. A.; Li, Shen-Long; Zhang, Wen-Yi

    2016-01-01

    Background Scrub typhus is endemic in the Asia-Pacific region including China, and the number of reported cases has increased dramatically in the past decade. However, the spatial-temporal dynamics and the potential risk factors in transmission of scrub typhus in mainland China have yet to be characterized. Objective This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of reported scrub typhus cases in mainland China between January 2006 and December 2014, to detect the location of high risk spatiotemporal clusters of scrub typhus cases, and identify the potential risk factors affecting the re-emergence of the disease. Method Monthly cases of scrub typhus reported at the county level between 2006 and 2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. Time-series analyses, spatiotemporal cluster analyses, and spatial scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics of the scrub typhus incidence. To explore the association between scrub typhus incidence and environmental variables panel Poisson regression analysis was conducted. Results During the time period between 2006 and 2014 a total of 54,558 scrub typhus cases were reported in mainland China, which grew exponentially. The majority of cases were reported each year between July and November, with peak incidence during October every year. The spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus varied over the study period with high-risk clusters identified in southwest, southern, and middle-eastern part of China. Scrub typhus incidence was positively correlated with the percentage of shrub and meteorological variables including temperature and precipitation. Conclusions The results of this study demonstrate areas in China that could be targeted with public health interventions to mitigate the growing threat of scrub typhus in the country. PMID:27479297

  9. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Scrub Typhus Transmission in Mainland China, 2006-2014.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yi-Cheng; Qian, Quan; Soares Magalhaes, Ricardo J; Han, Zhi-Hai; Hu, Wen-Biao; Haque, Ubydul; Weppelmann, Thomas A; Wang, Yong; Liu, Yun-Xi; Li, Xin-Lou; Sun, Hai-Long; Sun, Yan-Song; Clements, Archie C A; Li, Shen-Long; Zhang, Wen-Yi

    2016-08-01

    Scrub typhus is endemic in the Asia-Pacific region including China, and the number of reported cases has increased dramatically in the past decade. However, the spatial-temporal dynamics and the potential risk factors in transmission of scrub typhus in mainland China have yet to be characterized. This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of reported scrub typhus cases in mainland China between January 2006 and December 2014, to detect the location of high risk spatiotemporal clusters of scrub typhus cases, and identify the potential risk factors affecting the re-emergence of the disease. Monthly cases of scrub typhus reported at the county level between 2006 and 2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. Time-series analyses, spatiotemporal cluster analyses, and spatial scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics of the scrub typhus incidence. To explore the association between scrub typhus incidence and environmental variables panel Poisson regression analysis was conducted. During the time period between 2006 and 2014 a total of 54,558 scrub typhus cases were reported in mainland China, which grew exponentially. The majority of cases were reported each year between July and November, with peak incidence during October every year. The spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus varied over the study period with high-risk clusters identified in southwest, southern, and middle-eastern part of China. Scrub typhus incidence was positively correlated with the percentage of shrub and meteorological variables including temperature and precipitation. The results of this study demonstrate areas in China that could be targeted with public health interventions to mitigate the growing threat of scrub typhus in the country.

  10. Early History of the Concept of Chemical Transmission of the Nerve Impulse.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davenport, Horace W.

    1991-01-01

    Describes the research efforts of scientists involved in discovering chemical transmission of the nerve impulse. The work includes that of J.N. Langley, George Oliver, Edward A. Schafer, Reid Hunt, Henry Dale, Henry Wellcome, Otto Loewi, and others. The discovery and the importance of both acetylcholine and adrenaline are also discussed. (84…

  11. Cerebro-costo-mandibular syndrome in a father and a female fetus: early prenatal ultrasonographic diagnosis and autosomal dominant transmission.

    PubMed

    Morin, G; Gekas, J; Naepels, P; Gondry, J; Devauchelle, B; Testelin, S; Sevestre, H; Thépôt, F; Mathieu, M

    2001-10-01

    Ultrasonography in a female fetus revealed cystic cervical hygroma, severe micrognathia, and vertebral and upper limb anomalies suggestive of cerebro-costo-mandibular syndrome (CCMS) which was diagnosed ultrasonographically at 16 weeks' gestation. The father is affected and presents with a Pierre Robin sequence, short stature and typical costovertebral anomalies. CCMS is a rare and severe disorder. The high frequency of sporadic cases, vertical transmission, and the excess of sibs affected via horizontal transmission suggest dominant autosomal mutation with possible germinal mosaicism. The vertical familial case detailed in the present report is a reminder of the high risk when one parent or one sibling is affected and the extreme variability of phenotype and costal ossification. Early prenatal ultrasound diagnosis is possible in a severely affected fetus. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Assessing the Potential Impact of Hormonal-Based Contraceptives on HIV Transmission Dynamics Among Heterosexuals.

    PubMed

    Malunguza, Noble J; Hove-Musekwa, Senelani D; Mukandavire, Zindoga

    2017-04-01

    HIV susceptibility linked to hormonal contraception (HC) has been studied before, but with mixed results. Reports from some of the recent findings have prompted the World Health Organisation to encourage women who use HC to concurrently use condoms in order to prevent HIV infection in the light of possible increased HIV risk of infection associated with hormone-based contraceptives. A two-sex HIV model classifying women into three risk groups consisting of individuals who use condoms, natural methods, and hormone-based contraceptives is formulated and analysed to assess the possible effects of various birth control strategies on the transmission dynamics of the disease. Our model results showed that women who use HC could be key drivers of the epidemic and that their increased infectivity may be critical in driving the epidemic. Women who use hormone-based contraceptives potentially act as a core group from which men get infected and in turn transmit the disease to other population groups. We fitted the model to HIV prevalence data for Zimbabwe reported by UNAIDS and Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care and used the model fit to project HIV prevalence. Predictions using HIV data for Zimbabwe suggest that a hypothesised increase in susceptibility and infectivity of two-, three-, and fourfold would result in a 25, 50, and 100% increase in baseline HIV prevalence projection, respectively, thus suggesting possible increased disease burden even in countries reporting plausible HIV prevalence declines. Although a possible causal relationship between HIV susceptibility and HC use remains subject of continuing scientific probe, its inclusion as part of birth control strategy has been shown in this study, to possibly increase HIV transmission. If proven, HC use may potentially explain the inordinate spread of HIV within the sub-Saharan Africa region and therefore compel for urgent assessment with a view to reorienting birth control methods in use in settings with

  13. Border Malaria Associated with Multidrug Resistance on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia Borders: Transmission Dynamic, Vulnerability, and Surveillance

    PubMed Central

    Bhumiratana, Adisak; Intarapuk, Apiradee; Sorosjinda-Nunthawarasilp, Prapa; Maneekan, Pannamas; Koyadun, Surachart

    2013-01-01

    This systematic review elaborates the concepts and impacts of border malaria, particularly on the emergence and spread of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax multidrug resistance (MDR) malaria on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia borders. Border malaria encompasses any complex epidemiological settings of forest-related and forest fringe-related malaria, both regularly occurring in certain transmission areas and manifesting a trend of increased incidence in transmission prone areas along these borders, as the result of interconnections of human settlements and movement activities, cross-border population migrations, ecological changes, vector population dynamics, and multidrug resistance. For regional and global perspectives, this review analyzes and synthesizes the rationales pertaining to transmission dynamics and the vulnerabilities of border malaria that constrain surveillance and control of the world's most MDR falciparum and vivax malaria on these chaotic borders. PMID:23865048

  14. THE ROLE OF REEF FISH IN THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF BLACK-BAND DISEASE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Aeby, Greta S. and Deborah L. Santavy. In press. Role of Reef Fish in the Transmission Dynamics of Black-Band Disease in the Florida Keys (Abstract). To be presented at the 10th International Coral Reef Symposium, 28 June-2 July 2004, Okinawa, Japan. 1 p. (ERL,GB R998).

    T...

  15. Limited Colonization Undermined by Inadequate Early Immune Responses Defines the Dynamics of Decidual Listeriosis.

    PubMed

    Rizzuto, Gabrielle; Tagliani, Elisa; Manandhar, Priyanka; Erlebacher, Adrian; Bakardjiev, Anna I

    2017-08-01

    The bacterial pathogen Listeria monocytogenes causes foodborne systemic disease in pregnant women, which can lead to preterm labor, stillbirth, or severe neonatal disease. Colonization of the maternal decidua appears to be an initial step in the maternal component of the disease as well as bacterial transmission to the placenta and fetus. Host-pathogen interactions in the decidua during this early stage of infection remain poorly understood. Here, we assessed the dynamics of L. monocytogenes infection in primary human decidual organ cultures and in the murine decidua in vivo A high inoculum was necessary to infect both human and mouse deciduas, and the data support the existence of a barrier to initial colonization of the murine decidua. If successful, however, colonization in both species was followed by significant bacterial expansion associated with an inability of the decidua to mount appropriate innate cellular immune responses. The innate immune deficits included the failure of bacterial foci to attract macrophages and NK cells, cell types known to be important for early defenses against L. monocytogenes in the spleen, as well as a decrease in the tissue density of inflammatory Ly6C hi monocytes in vivo These results suggest that the infectivity of the decidua is not the result of an enhanced recruitment of L. monocytogenes to the gestational uterus but rather is due to compromised local innate cellular immune responses. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

  16. Nonlinearity in the vertical transmissibility of seating: the role of the human body apparent mass and seat dynamic stiffness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tufano, Saverio; Griffin, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    The efficiency of a seat in reducing vibration depends on the characteristics of the vibration, the dynamic characteristics of the seat, and the dynamic characteristics of the person sitting on the seat. However, it is not known whether seat cushions influence the dynamic response of the human body, whether the human body influences the dynamic response of seat cushions, or the relative importance of human body nonlinearity and seat nonlinearity in causing nonlinearity in measures of seat transmissibility. This study was designed to investigate the nonlinearity of the coupled seat and human body systems and to compare the apparent mass of the human body supported on rigid and foam seats. A frequency domain model was used to identify the dynamic parameters of seat foams and investigate their dependence on the subject-sitting weight and hip breadth. With 15 subjects, the force and acceleration at the seat base and acceleration at the subject interface were measured during random vertical vibration excitation (0.25-25 Hz) at each of five vibration magnitudes, (0.25-1.6 ms-2 r.m.s.) with four seating conditions (rigid flat seat and three foam cushions). The measurements are presented in terms of the subject's apparent mass on the rigid and foam seat surfaces, and the transmissibility and dynamic stiffness of each of the foam cushions. Both the human body and the foams showed nonlinear softening behaviour, which resulted in nonlinear cushion transmissibility. The apparent masses of subjects sitting on the rigid seat and on foam cushions were similar, but with an apparent increase in damping when sitting on the foams. The foam dynamic stiffness showed complex correlations with characteristics of the human body, which differed between foams. The nonlinearities in cushion transmissibilities, expressed in terms of changes in resonance frequencies and moduli, were more dependent on human body nonlinearity than on cushion nonlinearity.

  17. Ubiquitination dynamics in the early-branching eukaryote Giardia intestinalis

    PubMed Central

    Niño, Carlos A; Chaparro, Jenny; Soffientini, Paolo; Polo, Simona; Wasserman, Moises

    2013-01-01

    Ubiquitination is a highly dynamic and versatile posttranslational modification that regulates protein function, stability, and interactions. To investigate the roles of ubiquitination in a primitive eukaryotic lineage, we utilized the early-branching eukaryote Giardia intestinalis. Using a combination of biochemical, immunofluorescence-based, and proteomics approaches, we assessed the ubiquitination status during the process of differentiation in Giardia. We observed that different types of ubiquitin modifications present specific cellular and temporal distribution throughout the Giardia life cycle from trophozoites to cyst maturation. Ubiquitin signal was detected in the wall of mature cysts, and enzymes implicated in cyst wall biogenesis were identified as substrates for ubiquitination. Interestingly, inhibition of proteasome activity did not affect trophozoite replication and differentiation, while it caused a decrease in cyst viability, arguing for proteasome involvement in cyst wall maturation. Using a proteomics approach, we identified around 200 high-confidence ubiquitinated candidates that vary their ubiquitination status during differentiation. Our results indicate that ubiquitination is critical for several cellular processes in this primitive eukaryote. PMID:23613346

  18. Elucidation of hepatitis C virus transmission and early diversification by single genome sequencing.

    PubMed

    Li, Hui; Stoddard, Mark B; Wang, Shuyi; Blair, Lily M; Giorgi, Elena E; Parrish, Erica H; Learn, Gerald H; Hraber, Peter; Goepfert, Paul A; Saag, Michael S; Denny, Thomas N; Haynes, Barton F; Hahn, Beatrice H; Ribeiro, Ruy M; Perelson, Alan S; Korber, Bette T; Bhattacharya, Tanmoy; Shaw, George M

    2012-01-01

    A precise molecular identification of transmitted hepatitis C virus (HCV) genomes could illuminate key aspects of transmission biology, immunopathogenesis and natural history. We used single genome sequencing of 2,922 half or quarter genomes from plasma viral RNA to identify transmitted/founder (T/F) viruses in 17 subjects with acute community-acquired HCV infection. Sequences from 13 of 17 acute subjects, but none of 14 chronic controls, exhibited one or more discrete low diversity viral lineages. Sequences within each lineage generally revealed a star-like phylogeny of mutations that coalesced to unambiguous T/F viral genomes. Numbers of transmitted viruses leading to productive clinical infection were estimated to range from 1 to 37 or more (median = 4). Four acutely infected subjects showed a distinctly different pattern of virus diversity that deviated from a star-like phylogeny. In these cases, empirical analysis and mathematical modeling suggested high multiplicity virus transmission from individuals who themselves were acutely infected or had experienced a virus population bottleneck due to antiviral drug therapy. These results provide new quantitative and qualitative insights into HCV transmission, revealing for the first time virus-host interactions that successful vaccines or treatment interventions will need to overcome. Our findings further suggest a novel experimental strategy for identifying full-length T/F genomes for proteome-wide analyses of HCV biology and adaptation to antiviral drug or immune pressures.

  19. Elucidation of Hepatitis C Virus Transmission and Early Diversification by Single Genome Sequencing

    PubMed Central

    Li, Hui; Stoddard, Mark B.; Wang, Shuyi; Blair, Lily M.; Giorgi, Elena E.; Parrish, Erica H.; Learn, Gerald H.; Hraber, Peter; Goepfert, Paul A.; Saag, Michael S.; Denny, Thomas N.; Haynes, Barton F.; Hahn, Beatrice H.; Ribeiro, Ruy M.; Perelson, Alan S.; Korber, Bette T.; Bhattacharya, Tanmoy; Shaw, George M.

    2012-01-01

    A precise molecular identification of transmitted hepatitis C virus (HCV) genomes could illuminate key aspects of transmission biology, immunopathogenesis and natural history. We used single genome sequencing of 2,922 half or quarter genomes from plasma viral RNA to identify transmitted/founder (T/F) viruses in 17 subjects with acute community-acquired HCV infection. Sequences from 13 of 17 acute subjects, but none of 14 chronic controls, exhibited one or more discrete low diversity viral lineages. Sequences within each lineage generally revealed a star-like phylogeny of mutations that coalesced to unambiguous T/F viral genomes. Numbers of transmitted viruses leading to productive clinical infection were estimated to range from 1 to 37 or more (median = 4). Four acutely infected subjects showed a distinctly different pattern of virus diversity that deviated from a star-like phylogeny. In these cases, empirical analysis and mathematical modeling suggested high multiplicity virus transmission from individuals who themselves were acutely infected or had experienced a virus population bottleneck due to antiviral drug therapy. These results provide new quantitative and qualitative insights into HCV transmission, revealing for the first time virus-host interactions that successful vaccines or treatment interventions will need to overcome. Our findings further suggest a novel experimental strategy for identifying full-length T/F genomes for proteome-wide analyses of HCV biology and adaptation to antiviral drug or immune pressures. PMID:22927816

  20. Th17 Cells Are Preferentially Infected Very Early after Vaginal Transmission of SIV in Macaques.

    PubMed

    Stieh, Daniel J; Matias, Edgar; Xu, Huanbin; Fought, Angela J; Blanchard, James L; Marx, Preston A; Veazey, Ronald S; Hope, Thomas J

    2016-04-13

    The difficulty in detecting rare infected cells immediately after mucosal HIV transmission has hindered our understanding of the initial cells targeted by the virus. Working with the macaque simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) vaginal challenge model, we developed methodology to identify discrete foci of SIV (mac239) infection 48 hr after vaginal inoculation. We find infectious foci throughout the reproductive tract, from labia to ovary. Phenotyping infected cells reveals that SIV has a significant bias for infection of CCR6+ CD4+ T cells. SIV-infected cells expressed the transcriptional regulator RORγt, confirming that the initial target cells are specifically of the Th17 lineage. Furthermore, we detect host responses to infection, as evidenced by apoptosis, cell lysis, and phagocytosis of infected cells. Thus, our analysis identifies Th17-lineage CCR6+ CD4+ T cells as primary targets of SIV during vaginal transmission. This opens new opportunities for interventions to protect these cells and prevent HIV transmission. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of a Complex Simulation Model for Mosquito Population Dynamics, Dengue Transmission, and Their Control

    PubMed Central

    Ellis, Alicia M.; Garcia, Andres J.; Focks, Dana A.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

    2011-01-01

    Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters. Here, we present results of sensitivity analyses of two interrelated complex simulation models of mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission. We found that dengue transmission may be influenced most by survival in each life stage of the mosquito, mosquito biting behavior, and duration of the infectious period in humans. The importance of these biological processes for vector-borne disease models and the overwhelming lack of knowledge about them make acquisition of relevant field data on these biological processes a top research priority. PMID:21813844

  2. Transmission dynamics of parasitic sea lice from farm to wild salmon.

    PubMed

    Krkosek, Martin; Lewis, Mark A; Volpe, John P

    2005-04-07

    Marine salmon farming has been correlated with parasitic sea lice infestations and concurrent declines of wild salmonids. Here, we report a quantitative analysis of how a single salmon farm altered the natural transmission dynamics of sea lice to juvenile Pacific salmon. We studied infections of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Caligus clemensi) on juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) as they passed an isolated salmon farm during their seaward migration down two long and narrow corridors. Our calculations suggest the infection pressure imposed by the farm was four orders of magnitude greater than ambient levels, resulting in a maximum infection pressure near the farm that was 73 times greater than ambient levels and exceeded ambient levels for 30 km along the two wild salmon migration corridors. The farm-produced cohort of lice parasitizing the wild juvenile hosts reached reproductive maturity and produced a second generation of lice that re-infected the juvenile salmon. This raises the infection pressure from the farm by an additional order of magnitude, with a composite infection pressure that exceeds ambient levels for 75 km of the two migration routes. Amplified sea lice infestations due to salmon farms are a potential limiting factor to wild salmonid conservation.

  3. Economics, cultural transmission, and the dynamics of the sex ratio at birth in China.

    PubMed

    Lipatov, Mikhail; Li, Shuzhuo; Feldman, Marcus W

    2008-12-09

    In rural China, the ratio of newborn boys to newborn girls [sex ratio at birth (SRB)] has been rising for several decades, to values significantly above its biological norm. This trend has a number of alarming societal consequences, and has attracted the attention of scholars and politicians. The root of the problem lies in a 2,500-year-old culture of son preference. This culture is intricately linked with the economic reality of each couple's life, so that there are financial and psychological repercussions to parents who have no sons. To bring greater clarity and understanding to this issue, we present a quantitative framework that describes the interaction between economics and cultural transmission. We start with an explicit mechanism by which economic incentives can change cultural beliefs of a given individual, and go on to include a mechanism of cultural inheritance from generation to generation. We then show how economic conditions can affect the dynamics of cultural change in an entire society, and may lead to a decrease in the country's sex ratio at birth.

  4. The impact of a parkinsonian lesion on dynamic striatal dopamine transmission depends on nicotinic receptor activation

    PubMed Central

    Jennings, Katie A.; Platt, Nicola J.; Cragg, Stephanie J.

    2015-01-01

    Dopamine function is disturbed in Parkinson's disease (PD), but whether and how release of dopamine from surviving neurons is altered has long been debated. Nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs) on dopamine axons powerfully govern dopamine release and could be critical contributing factors. We revisited whether fundamental properties of dopamine transmission are changed in a parkinsonian brain and tested the potentially profound masking effects of nAChRs. Using real-time detection of dopamine in mouse striatum after a partial 6-hydroxydopamine lesion and under nAChR inhibition, we reveal that dopamine signals show diminished sensitivity to presynaptic activity. This effect manifested as diminished contrast between DA release evoked by the lowest versus highest frequencies. This reduced activity-dependence was underpinned by loss of short-term facilitation of dopamine release, consistent with an increase in release probability (Pr). With nAChRs active, the reduced activity-dependence of dopamine release after a parkinsonian lesion was masked. Consequently, moment-by-moment variation in activity of nAChRs may lead to dynamic co-variation in dopamine signal impairments in PD. PMID:26117304

  5. Transmission dynamics of parasitic sea lice from farm to wild salmon

    PubMed Central

    Krkošek, Martin; Lewis, Mark A; Volpe, John P

    2005-01-01

    Marine salmon farming has been correlated with parasitic sea lice infestations and concurrent declines of wild salmonids. Here, we report a quantitative analysis of how a single salmon farm altered the natural transmission dynamics of sea lice to juvenile Pacific salmon. We studied infections of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Caligus clemensi ) on juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) as they passed an isolated salmon farm during their seaward migration down two long and narrow corridors. Our calculations suggest the infection pressure imposed by the farm was four orders of magnitude greater than ambient levels, resulting in a maximum infection pressure near the farm that was 73 times greater than ambient levels and exceeded ambient levels for 30 km along the two wild salmon migration corridors. The farm-produced cohort of lice parasitizing the wild juvenile hosts reached reproductive maturity and produced a second generation of lice that re-infected the juvenile salmon. This raises the infection pressure from the farm by an additional order of magnitude, with a composite infection pressure that exceeds ambient levels for 75 km of the two migration routes. Amplified sea lice infestations due to salmon farms are a potential limiting factor to wild salmonid conservation. PMID:15870031

  6. High Dynamic Range Pixel Array Detector for Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy.

    PubMed

    Tate, Mark W; Purohit, Prafull; Chamberlain, Darol; Nguyen, Kayla X; Hovden, Robert; Chang, Celesta S; Deb, Pratiti; Turgut, Emrah; Heron, John T; Schlom, Darrell G; Ralph, Daniel C; Fuchs, Gregory D; Shanks, Katherine S; Philipp, Hugh T; Muller, David A; Gruner, Sol M

    2016-02-01

    We describe a hybrid pixel array detector (electron microscope pixel array detector, or EMPAD) adapted for use in electron microscope applications, especially as a universal detector for scanning transmission electron microscopy. The 128×128 pixel detector consists of a 500 µm thick silicon diode array bump-bonded pixel-by-pixel to an application-specific integrated circuit. The in-pixel circuitry provides a 1,000,000:1 dynamic range within a single frame, allowing the direct electron beam to be imaged while still maintaining single electron sensitivity. A 1.1 kHz framing rate enables rapid data collection and minimizes sample drift distortions while scanning. By capturing the entire unsaturated diffraction pattern in scanning mode, one can simultaneously capture bright field, dark field, and phase contrast information, as well as being able to analyze the full scattering distribution, allowing true center of mass imaging. The scattering is recorded on an absolute scale, so that information such as local sample thickness can be directly determined. This paper describes the detector architecture, data acquisition system, and preliminary results from experiments with 80-200 keV electron beams.

  7. Economics, cultural transmission, and the dynamics of the sex ratio at birth in China

    PubMed Central

    Lipatov, Mikhail; Li, Shuzhuo; Feldman, Marcus W.

    2008-01-01

    In rural China, the ratio of newborn boys to newborn girls [sex ratio at birth (SRB)] has been rising for several decades, to values significantly above its biological norm. This trend has a number of alarming societal consequences, and has attracted the attention of scholars and politicians. The root of the problem lies in a 2,500-year-old culture of son preference. This culture is intricately linked with the economic reality of each couple's life, so that there are financial and psychological repercussions to parents who have no sons. To bring greater clarity and understanding to this issue, we present a quantitative framework that describes the interaction between economics and cultural transmission. We start with an explicit mechanism by which economic incentives can change cultural beliefs of a given individual, and go on to include a mechanism of cultural inheritance from generation to generation. We then show how economic conditions can affect the dynamics of cultural change in an entire society, and may lead to a decrease in the country's sex ratio at birth. PMID:19047641

  8. Transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome in dynamical small-world networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masuda, Naoki; Konno, Norio; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2004-03-01

    The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is still threatening the world because of a possible resurgence. In the current situation that effective medical treatments such as antiviral drugs are not discovered yet, dynamical features of the epidemics should be clarified for establishing strategies for tracing, quarantine, isolation, and regulating social behavior of the public at appropriate costs. Here we propose a network model for SARS epidemics and discuss why superspreaders emerged and why SARS spread especially in hospitals, which were key factors of the recent outbreak. We suggest that superspreaders are biologically contagious patients, and they may amplify the spreads by going to potentially contagious places such as hospitals. To avoid mass transmission in hospitals, it may be a good measure to treat suspected cases without hospitalizing them. Finally, we indicate that SARS probably propagates in small-world networks associated with human contacts and that the biological nature of individuals and social group properties are factors more important than the heterogeneous rates of social contacts among individuals. This is in marked contrast with epidemics of sexually transmitted diseases or computer viruses to which scale-free network models often apply.

  9. Determination of the Optimal Fourier Number on the Dynamic Thermal Transmission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruzgevičius, P.; Burlingis, A.; Norvaišienė, R.

    2016-12-01

    This article represents the result of experimental research on transient heat transfer in a multilayered (heterogeneous) wall. Our non-steady thermal transmission simulation is based on a finite-difference calculation method. The value of a Fourier number shows the similarity of thermal variation in conditional layers of an enclosure. Most scientists recommend using no more than a value of 0.5 for the Fourier number when performing calculations on dynamic (transient) heat transfer. The value of the Fourier number is determined in order to acquire reliable calculation results with optimal accuracy. To compare the results of simulation with experimental research, a transient heat transfer calculation spreadsheet was created. Our research has shown that a Fourier number of around 0.5 or even 0.32 is not sufficient ({≈ }17 % of oscillation amplitude) for calculations of transient heat transfer in a multilayered wall. The least distorted calculation results were obtained when the multilayered enclosure was divided into conditional layers with almost equal Fourier number values and when the value of the Fourier number was around 1/6, i.e., approximately 0.17. Statistical deviation analysis using the Statistical Analysis System was applied to assess the accuracy of the spreadsheet calculation and was developed on the basis of our established methodology. The mean and median absolute error as well as their confidence intervals has been estimated by the two methods with optimal accuracy ({F}_{oMDF}= 0.177 and F_{oEPS}= 0.1633 values).

  10. Dynamics of a split torque helicopter transmission. M.S. Thesis - Cleveland State Univ.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krantz, Timothy L.

    1994-01-01

    Split torque designs, proposed as alternatives to traditional planetary designs for helicopter main rotor transmissions, can save weight and be more reliable than traditional designs. This report presents the results of an analytical study of the system dynamics and performance of a split torque gearbox that uses a balance beam mechanism for load sharing. The Lagrange method was applied to develop a system of equations of motion. The mathematical model includes time-varying gear mesh stiffness, friction, and manufacturing errors. Cornell's method for calculating the stiffness of spur gear teeth was extended and applied to helical gears. The phenomenon of sidebands spaced at shaft frequencies about gear mesh fundamental frequencies was simulated by modeling total composite gear errors as sinusoid functions. Although the gearbox has symmetric geometry, the loads and motions of the two power paths differ. Friction must be considered to properly evaluate the balance beam mechanism. For the design studied, the balance beam is not an effective device for load sharing unless the coefficient of friction is less than 0.003. The complete system stiffness as represented by the stiffness matrix used in this analysis must be considered to precisely determine the optimal tooth indexing position.

  11. Basic Reproduction Number and Transmission Dynamics of Common Serogroups of Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli.

    PubMed

    Chen, Shi; Sanderson, Michael W; Lee, Chihoon; Cernicchiaro, Natalia; Renter, David G; Lanzas, Cristina

    2016-09-15

    Understanding the transmission dynamics of pathogens is essential to determine the epidemiology, ecology, and ways of controlling enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) in animals and their environments. Our objective was to estimate the epidemiological fitness of common EHEC strains in cattle populations. For that purpose, we developed a Markov chain model to characterize the dynamics of 7 serogroups of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (O26, O45, O103, O111, O121, O145, and O157) in cattle production environments based on a set of cross-sectional data on infection prevalence in 2 years in two U.S. states. The basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated using a Bayesian framework for each serogroup based on two criteria (using serogroup alone [the O-group data] and using O serogroup, Shiga toxin gene[s], and intimin [eae] gene together [the EHEC data]). In addition, correlations between external covariates (e.g., location, ambient temperature, dietary, and probiotic usage) and prevalence/R0 were quantified. R0 estimates varied substantially among different EHEC serogroups, with EHEC O157 having an R0 of >1 (∼1.5) and all six other EHEC serogroups having an R0 of less than 1. Using the O-group data substantially increased R0 estimates for the O26, O45, and O103 serogroups (R0 > 1) but not for the others. Different covariates had distinct influences on different serogroups: the coefficients for each covariate were different among serogroups. Our modeling and analysis of this system can be readily expanded to other pathogen systems in order to estimate the pathogen and external factors that influence spread of infectious agents. In this paper we describe a Bayesian modeling framework to estimate basic reproduction numbers of multiple serotypes of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli according to a cross-sectional study. We then coupled a compartmental model to reconstruct the infection dynamics of these serotypes and quantify their risk in the population. We

  12. Basic Reproduction Number and Transmission Dynamics of Common Serogroups of Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli

    PubMed Central

    Sanderson, Michael W.; Lee, Chihoon; Cernicchiaro, Natalia; Renter, David G.; Lanzas, Cristina

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Understanding the transmission dynamics of pathogens is essential to determine the epidemiology, ecology, and ways of controlling enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) in animals and their environments. Our objective was to estimate the epidemiological fitness of common EHEC strains in cattle populations. For that purpose, we developed a Markov chain model to characterize the dynamics of 7 serogroups of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (O26, O45, O103, O111, O121, O145, and O157) in cattle production environments based on a set of cross-sectional data on infection prevalence in 2 years in two U.S. states. The basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated using a Bayesian framework for each serogroup based on two criteria (using serogroup alone [the O-group data] and using O serogroup, Shiga toxin gene[s], and intimin [eae] gene together [the EHEC data]). In addition, correlations between external covariates (e.g., location, ambient temperature, dietary, and probiotic usage) and prevalence/R0 were quantified. R0 estimates varied substantially among different EHEC serogroups, with EHEC O157 having an R0 of >1 (∼1.5) and all six other EHEC serogroups having an R0 of less than 1. Using the O-group data substantially increased R0 estimates for the O26, O45, and O103 serogroups (R0 > 1) but not for the others. Different covariates had distinct influences on different serogroups: the coefficients for each covariate were different among serogroups. Our modeling and analysis of this system can be readily expanded to other pathogen systems in order to estimate the pathogen and external factors that influence spread of infectious agents. IMPORTANCE In this paper we describe a Bayesian modeling framework to estimate basic reproduction numbers of multiple serotypes of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli according to a cross-sectional study. We then coupled a compartmental model to reconstruct the infection dynamics of these serotypes and quantify their risk

  13. HIV-1 Transmission during Early Infection in Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Phylodynamic Analysis

    DOE PAGES

    Volz, Erik M.; Ionides, Edward; Romero-Severson, Ethan O.; ...

    2013-12-10

    Conventional epidemiological surveillance of infectious diseases is focused on characterization of incident infections and estimation of the number of prevalent infections. Advances in methods for the analysis of the population-level genetic variation of viruses can potentially provide information about donors, not just recipients, of infection. Genetic sequences from many viruses are increasingly abundant, especially HIV, which is routinely sequenced for surveillance of drug resistance mutations. In this study, we conducted a phylodynamic analysis of HIV genetic sequence data and surveillance data from a US population of men who have sex with men (MSM) and estimated incidence and transmission rates bymore » stage of infection.« less

  14. HIV-1 Transmission during Early Infection in Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Phylodynamic Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Volz, Erik M.; Ionides, Edward; Romero-Severson, Ethan O.

    Conventional epidemiological surveillance of infectious diseases is focused on characterization of incident infections and estimation of the number of prevalent infections. Advances in methods for the analysis of the population-level genetic variation of viruses can potentially provide information about donors, not just recipients, of infection. Genetic sequences from many viruses are increasingly abundant, especially HIV, which is routinely sequenced for surveillance of drug resistance mutations. In this study, we conducted a phylodynamic analysis of HIV genetic sequence data and surveillance data from a US population of men who have sex with men (MSM) and estimated incidence and transmission rates bymore » stage of infection.« less

  15. Baseline malaria vector transmission dynamics in communities in Ahafo mining area in Ghana.

    PubMed

    Dery, Dominic B; Asante, Kwaku P; Zandoh, Charles; Febir, Lawrence G; Brown, Charles; Adjei, George; Antwi-Dadzie, Yaw; Mahama, Emmanuel; Tchum, Kofi; Dosoo, David; Amenga-Etego, Seeba; Adda, Robert; Mensah, Christine; Owusu-Sekyere, Kwabena B; Anderson, Chris; Krieger, Gary; Owusu-Agyei, Seth

    2015-04-07

    Malaria vector dynamics are relevant prior to commencement of mining activities. A baseline entomology survey was conducted in Asutifi and Tano (referred to as Ahafo) in the Brong-Ahafo geo-political region of Ghana during preparatory stages for mining by Newmont Ghana Gold Limited. Between November 2006 and August 2007, eight Centre for Disease Control light traps were set daily (Monday-Friday) to collect mosquitoes. Traps were hanged in rooms that were selected from a pool of 1,100 randomly selected houses. Types of materials used in construction of houses were recorded and mosquito prevention measures were assessed from occupants. A total of 5,393 mosquitoes were caught that comprised Anopheles gambiae (64.8%), Anopheles funestus (4.2%), as well as Culicines, comprising of Culex (30.4%) and Aedes species (0.6%). The entomological inoculation rate in Asutifi (279 infective bites/person/month) and Tano (487 infective bites/person/month) demonstrate relatively high malaria transmission in Ahafo. The presence or absence of Anopheles vectors in rooms was influenced by the type of roofing material (OR 2.33, 95%CI: 1.29-4.22, p = 0.01) as well as the presence of eaves gaps (OR 1.80, 95%CI: 1.37-2.37, p < 0.01). It was also associated with bed net availability in the room (OR 1.39, 95%CI: 1.08-1.80, p = 0.01). Over 80% of the houses were roofed with corrugated zinc sheets. Over 60% of the houses in Ahafo had no eaves gaps to give access to mosquito entry and exit into rooms and mosquito bed net coverage was over 50%. Other measures used in preventing mosquito bites included; coil (22.1%), insecticide spray (9.4%), repellent cream (4.0%) and smoky fires (1.1%), contributed minimally to individual mosquito preventive measures in impact areas. Similarly, levels of protection; coil (16.9%), insecticide spray (2.8%) and repellent cream (0.3%) for the non-impact areas, depict low individual prevention measures. The survey identified areas where intensified vector

  16. Parenting begets parenting: A neurobiological perspective on early adversity and the transmission of parenting styles across generations.

    PubMed

    Lomanowska, A M; Boivin, M; Hertzman, C; Fleming, A S

    2017-02-07

    The developing brains of young children are highly sensitive to input from their social environment. Nurturing social experience during this time promotes the acquisition of social and cognitive skills and emotional competencies. However, many young children are confronted with obstacles to healthy development, including poverty, inappropriate care, and violence, and their enhanced sensitivity to the social environment means that they are highly susceptible to these adverse childhood experiences. One source of social adversity in early life can stem from parenting that is harsh, inconsistent, non-sensitive or hostile. Parenting is considered to be the cornerstone of early socio-emotional development and an adverse parenting style is associated with adjustment problems and a higher risk of developing mood and behavioral disorders. Importantly, there is a growing literature showing that an important predictor of parenting behavior is how parents, especially mothers, were parented themselves. In this review, we examine how adversity in early-life affects mothering behavior in later-life and how these effects may be perpetuated inter-generationally. Relying on studies in humans and animal models, we consider evidence for the intergenerational transmission of mothering styles. We then describe the psychological underpinnings of mothering, including responsiveness to young, executive function and affect, as well as the physiological mediators of mothering behavior, including hormones, brain regions and neurotransmitters, and we consider how development in these relevant domains may be affected by adversity experienced in early life. Finally, we explore how genes and early experience interact to predict mothering behavior, including the involvement of epigenetic mechanisms. Understanding how adverse parenting begets adverse parenting in the next generation is critical for designing interventions aimed at preventing this intergenerational cycle of early adversity

  17. Genome sequencing highlights the dynamic early history of dogs.

    PubMed

    Freedman, Adam H; Gronau, Ilan; Schweizer, Rena M; Ortega-Del Vecchyo, Diego; Han, Eunjung; Silva, Pedro M; Galaverni, Marco; Fan, Zhenxin; Marx, Peter; Lorente-Galdos, Belen; Beale, Holly; Ramirez, Oscar; Hormozdiari, Farhad; Alkan, Can; Vilà, Carles; Squire, Kevin; Geffen, Eli; Kusak, Josip; Boyko, Adam R; Parker, Heidi G; Lee, Clarence; Tadigotla, Vasisht; Wilton, Alan; Siepel, Adam; Bustamante, Carlos D; Harkins, Timothy T; Nelson, Stanley F; Ostrander, Elaine A; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Wayne, Robert K; Novembre, John

    2014-01-01

    To identify genetic changes underlying dog domestication and reconstruct their early evolutionary history, we generated high-quality genome sequences from three gray wolves, one from each of the three putative centers of dog domestication, two basal dog lineages (Basenji and Dingo) and a golden jackal as an outgroup. Analysis of these sequences supports a demographic model in which dogs and wolves diverged through a dynamic process involving population bottlenecks in both lineages and post-divergence gene flow. In dogs, the domestication bottleneck involved at least a 16-fold reduction in population size, a much more severe bottleneck than estimated previously. A sharp bottleneck in wolves occurred soon after their divergence from dogs, implying that the pool of diversity from which dogs arose was substantially larger than represented by modern wolf populations. We narrow the plausible range for the date of initial dog domestication to an interval spanning 11-16 thousand years ago, predating the rise of agriculture. In light of this finding, we expand upon previous work regarding the increase in copy number of the amylase gene (AMY2B) in dogs, which is believed to have aided digestion of starch in agricultural refuse. We find standing variation for amylase copy number variation in wolves and little or no copy number increase in the Dingo and Husky lineages. In conjunction with the estimated timing of dog origins, these results provide additional support to archaeological finds, suggesting the earliest dogs arose alongside hunter-gathers rather than agriculturists. Regarding the geographic origin of dogs, we find that, surprisingly, none of the extant wolf lineages from putative domestication centers is more closely related to dogs, and, instead, the sampled wolves form a sister monophyletic clade. This result, in combination with dog-wolf admixture during the process of domestication, suggests that a re-evaluation of past hypotheses regarding dog origins is

  18. Genome Sequencing Highlights the Dynamic Early History of Dogs

    PubMed Central

    Freedman, Adam H.; Gronau, Ilan; Schweizer, Rena M.; Ortega-Del Vecchyo, Diego; Han, Eunjung; Silva, Pedro M.; Galaverni, Marco; Fan, Zhenxin; Marx, Peter; Lorente-Galdos, Belen; Beale, Holly; Ramirez, Oscar; Hormozdiari, Farhad; Alkan, Can; Vilà, Carles; Squire, Kevin; Geffen, Eli; Kusak, Josip; Boyko, Adam R.; Parker, Heidi G.; Lee, Clarence; Tadigotla, Vasisht; Siepel, Adam; Bustamante, Carlos D.; Harkins, Timothy T.; Nelson, Stanley F.; Ostrander, Elaine A.; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Wayne, Robert K.; Novembre, John

    2014-01-01

    To identify genetic changes underlying dog domestication and reconstruct their early evolutionary history, we generated high-quality genome sequences from three gray wolves, one from each of the three putative centers of dog domestication, two basal dog lineages (Basenji and Dingo) and a golden jackal as an outgroup. Analysis of these sequences supports a demographic model in which dogs and wolves diverged through a dynamic process involving population bottlenecks in both lineages and post-divergence gene flow. In dogs, the domestication bottleneck involved at least a 16-fold reduction in population size, a much more severe bottleneck than estimated previously. A sharp bottleneck in wolves occurred soon after their divergence from dogs, implying that the pool of diversity from which dogs arose was substantially larger than represented by modern wolf populations. We narrow the plausible range for the date of initial dog domestication to an interval spanning 11–16 thousand years ago, predating the rise of agriculture. In light of this finding, we expand upon previous work regarding the increase in copy number of the amylase gene (AMY2B) in dogs, which is believed to have aided digestion of starch in agricultural refuse. We find standing variation for amylase copy number variation in wolves and little or no copy number increase in the Dingo and Husky lineages. In conjunction with the estimated timing of dog origins, these results provide additional support to archaeological finds, suggesting the earliest dogs arose alongside hunter-gathers rather than agriculturists. Regarding the geographic origin of dogs, we find that, surprisingly, none of the extant wolf lineages from putative domestication centers is more closely related to dogs, and, instead, the sampled wolves form a sister monophyletic clade. This result, in combination with dog-wolf admixture during the process of domestication, suggests that a re-evaluation of past hypotheses regarding dog origins is

  19. Macroevolutionary dynamics in the early diversification of Asteraceae.

    PubMed

    Panero, Jose L; Crozier, Bonnie S

    2016-06-01

    Spatial and temporal differences in ecological opportunity can result in disparity of net species diversification rates and consequently uneven distribution of taxon richness across the tree of life. The largest eudicotyledonous plant family Asteraceae has a global distribution and at least 460 times more species than its South American endemic sister family Calyceraceae. In this study, diversification rate dynamics across Asteraceae are examined in light of the several hypothesized causes for the family's evolutionary success that could be responsible for rate change. The innovations of racemose capitulum and pappus, and a whole genome duplication event occurred near the origin of the family, yet we found the basal lineages of Asteraceae that evolved in South America share background diversification rates with Calyceraceae and their Australasian sister Goodeniaceae. Instead we found diversification rates increased gradually from the origin of Asteraceae approximately 69.5Ma in the late Cretaceous through the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum at least. In contrast to earlier studies, significant rate shifts were not strongly correlated with intercontinental dispersals or polyploidization. The difference is due primarily to sampling more backbone nodes, as well as calibrations placed internally in Asteraceae that resulted in earlier divergence times than those found in most previous relaxed clock studies. Two clades identified as having transformed rate processes are the Vernonioid Clade and a clade within the Heliantheae alliance characterized by phytomelanic fruit (PF Clade) that represents an American radiation. In Africa, subfamilies Carduoideae, Pertyoideae, Gymnarrhenoideae, Cichorioideae, Corymbioideae, and Asteroideae diverged in a relatively short span of only 6.5millionyears during the Middle Eocene. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Transmission dynamics of Bacillus thuringiensis infecting Plodia interpunctella: a test of the mass action assumption with an insect pathogen.

    PubMed

    Knell, R J; Begon, M; Thompson, D J

    1996-01-22

    Central to theoretical studies of host-pathogen population dynamics is a term describing transmission of the pathogen. This usually assumes that transmission is proportional to the density of infectious hosts or particles and of susceptible individuals. We tested this assumption with the bacterial pathogen Bacillus thuringiensis infecting larvae of Plodia interpunctella, the Indian meal moth. Transmission was found to increase in a more than linear way with host density in fourth and fifth instar P. interpunctella, and to decrease with the density of infectious cadavers in the case of fifth instar larvae. Food availability was shown to play an important part in this process. Therefore, on a number of counts, the usual assumption was found not to apply in our experimental system.

  1. Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Moghadas, Seyed M.

    2016-01-01

    Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can display subexponential (i.e. polynomial) growth in the first few disease generations, owing to clustering in contact patterns, spatial effects, inhomogeneous mixing, reactive behaviour changes or other mechanisms. Here, we introduce the generalized growth model to characterize the early growth profile of outbreaks and estimate the effective reproduction number, with no need for explicit assumptions about the shape of epidemic growth. We demonstrate this phenomenological approach using analytical results and simulations from mechanistic models, and provide validation against a range of empirical disease datasets. Our results suggest that subexponential growth in the early phase of an epidemic is the rule rather the exception. Mechanistic simulations show that slight modifications to the classical susceptible–infectious–removed model result in subexponential growth, and in turn a rapid decline in the reproduction number within three to five disease generations. For empirical outbreaks, the generalized-growth model consistently outperforms the exponential model for a variety of directly and indirectly transmitted diseases datasets (pandemic influenza, measles, smallpox, bubonic plague, cholera, foot-and-mouth disease, HIV/AIDS and Ebola) with model estimates supporting subexponential growth dynamics. The rapid decline in effective reproduction number predicted by analytical results and observed in real and synthetic datasets within three to five disease generations contrasts with the expectation of invariant reproduction number in epidemics obeying exponential growth. The

  2. MRSA Transmission Dynamics Among Interconnected Acute, Intermediate-Term, and Long-Term Healthcare Facilities in Singapore.

    PubMed

    Chow, Angela; Lim, Vanessa W; Khan, Ateeb; Pettigrew, Kerry; Lye, David C B; Kanagasabai, Kala; Phua, Kelvin; Krishnan, Prabha; Ang, Brenda; Marimuthu, Kalisvar; Hon, Pei-Yun; Koh, Jocelyn; Leong, Ian; Parkhill, Julian; Hsu, Li-Yang; Holden, Matthew T G

    2017-05-15

    Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is the most common healthcare-associated multidrug-resistant organism. Despite the interconnectedness between acute care hospitals (ACHs) and intermediate- and long-term care facilities (ILTCFs), the transmission dynamics of MRSA between healthcare settings is not well understood. We conducted a cross-sectional study in a network comprising an ACH and 5 closely affiliated ILTCFs in Singapore. A total of 1700 inpatients were screened for MRSA over a 6-week period in 2014. MRSA isolates underwent whole-genome sequencing, with a pairwise single-nucleotide polymorphism (Hamming distance) cutoff of 60 core genome single-nucleotide polymorphisms used to define recent transmission clusters (clades) for the 3 major clones. MRSA prevalence was significantly higher in intermediate-term (29.9%) and long-term (20.4%) care facilities than in the ACH (11.8%) (P < .001). The predominant clones were sequence type [ST] 22 (n = 183; 47.8%), ST45 (n = 129; 33.7%), and ST239 (n = 26; 6.8%), with greater diversity of STs in ILTCFs relative to the ACH. A large proportion of the clades in ST22 (14 of 21 clades; 67%) and ST45 (7 of 13; 54%) included inpatients from the ACH and ILTCFs. The most frequent source of the interfacility transmissions was the ACH (n = 28 transmission events; 36.4%). MRSA transmission dynamics between the ACH and ILTCFs were complex. The greater diversity of STs in ILTCFs suggests that the ecosystem in such settings might be more conducive for intrafacility transmission events. ST22 and ST45 have successfully established themselves in ILTCFs. The importance of interconnected infection prevention and control measures and strategies cannot be overemphasized. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Enhanced model of gear transmission dynamics for condition monitoring applications: Effects of torque, friction and bearing clearance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez-del-Rincon, A.; Garcia, P.; Diez-Ibarbia, A.; de-Juan, A.; Iglesias, M.; Viadero, F.

    2017-02-01

    Gear transmissions remain as one of the most complex mechanical systems from the point of view of noise and vibration behavior. Research on gear modeling leading to the obtaining of models capable of accurately reproduce the dynamic behavior of real gear transmissions has spread out the last decades. Most of these models, although useful for design stages, often include simplifications that impede their application for condition monitoring purposes. Trying to filling this gap, the model presented in this paper allows us to simulate gear transmission dynamics including most of these features usually neglected by the state of the art models. This work presents a model capable of considering simultaneously the internal excitations due to the variable meshing stiffness (including the coupling among successive tooth pairs in contact, the non-linearity linked with the contacts between surfaces and the dissipative effects), and those excitations consequence of the bearing variable compliance (including clearances or pre-loads). The model can also simulate gear dynamics in a realistic torque dependent scenario. The proposed model combines a hybrid formulation for calculation of meshing forces with a non-linear variable compliance approach for bearings. Meshing forces are obtained by means of a double approach which combines numerical and analytical aspects. The methodology used provides a detailed description of the meshing forces, allowing their calculation even when gear center distance is modified due to shaft and bearing flexibilities, which are unavoidable in real transmissions. On the other hand, forces at bearing level were obtained considering a variable number of supporting rolling elements, depending on the applied load and clearances. Both formulations have been developed and applied to the simulation of the vibration of a sample transmission, focusing the attention on the transmitted load, friction meshing forces and bearing preloads.

  4. Phylogenetic studies of transmission dynamics in generalized HIV epidemics: An essential tool where the burden is greatest?

    PubMed Central

    Dennis, Ann M.; Herbeck, Joshua T.; Brown, Andrew Leigh; Kellam, Paul; de Oliveira, Tulio; Pillay, Deenan; Fraser, Christophe; Cohen, Myron S.

    2014-01-01

    Efficient and effective HIV prevention measures for generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa have not yet been validated at the population-level. Design and impact evaluation of such measures requires fine-scale understanding of local HIV transmission dynamics. The novel tools of HIV phylogenetics and molecular epidemiology may elucidate these transmission dynamics. Such methods have been incorporated into studies of concentrated HIV epidemics to identify proximate and determinant traits associated with ongoing transmission. However, applying similar phylogenetic analyses to generalized epidemics, including the design and evaluation of prevention trials, presents additional challenges. Here we review the scope of these methods and present examples of their use in concentrated epidemics in the context of prevention. Next, we describe the current uses for phylogenetics in generalized epidemics, and discuss their promise for elucidating transmission patterns and informing prevention trials. Finally, we review logistic and technical challenges inherent to large-scale molecular epidemiological studies of generalized epidemics, and suggest potential solutions. PMID:24977473

  5. Effects of gear box vibration and mass imbalance on the dynamics of multi-stage gear transmissions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choy, Fred K.; Tu, Yu K.; Zakrajsek, James J.; Townsend, Dennis P.

    1991-01-01

    The dynamic behavior of multistage gear transmission system, with the effects of gear-box-induced vibrations and rotor mass-imbalances is analyzed. The model method, using undamped frequencies and planar mode shapes, is used to reduce the degree-of-freedom of the system. The various rotor-bearing stages as well as lateral and torsional vibrations of each individual stage are coupled through localized gear-mesh-tooth interactions. Gear-box vibrations are coupled to the gear stage dynamics through bearing support forces. Transient and steady state dynamics of lateral and torsional vibrations of the geared system are examined in both time and frequency domain. A typical three-staged geared system is used as an example. Effects of mass-imbalance and gear box vibrations on the system dynamic behavior are presented in terms of modal excitation functions for both lateral and torsional vibrations. Operational characteristics and conclusions are drawn from the results presented.

  6. Oman metamorphic sole formation reveals early subduction dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soret, Mathieu; Agard, Philippe; Dubacq, Benoît; Plunder, Alexis; Ildefonse, Benoît; Yamato, Philippe; Prigent, Cécile

    2016-04-01

    Metamorphic soles correspond to m to ~500m thick tectonic slices welded beneath most of the large-scale ophiolites. They typically show a steep inverted metamorphic structure where the pressure and temperature conditions of crystallization increase upward (from 500±100°C at 0.5±0.2 GPa to 800±100°C at 1.0±0.2 GPa), with isograds subparallel to the contact with the overlying ophiolitic peridotite. The proportion of mafic rocks in metamorphic soles also increases from the bottom (meta-sediments rich) to the top (approaching the ophiolite peridotites). These soles are interpreted as the result of heat transfer from the incipient mantle wedge toward the nascent slab (associated with large-scale fluid transfer and possible shear heating) during the first My of intra-oceanic subduction (as indicated by radiometric ages). Metamorphic soles provide therefore major constraints on early subduction dynamics (i.e., thermal structure, fluid migration and rheology along the nascent slab interface). We present a detailed structural and petrological study of the metamorphic sole from 4 major cross-sections along the Oman ophiolite. We show precise pressure-temperature estimates obtained by pseudosection modelling and EBSD measurements performed on both the garnet-bearing and garnet-free high-grade sole. Results allow quantification of the micro-scale deformation and highlight differences in pressure-temperature-deformation conditions between the 4 different locations, showing that the inverted metamorphic gradient through the sole is not continuous in all locations. Based on these new constraints, we suggest a new tectonic-petrological model for the formation of metamorphic soles below ophiolites. This model involves the stacking of several homogeneous slivers of oceanic crust leading to the present-day structure of the sole. In this view, these thrusts are the result of rheological contrasts between the sole and the peridotite as the plate interface progressively cools down

  7. A fuzzy-theory-based method for studying the effect of information transmission on nonlinear crowd dispersion dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Libi; Song, Weiguo; Lo, Siuming

    2017-01-01

    Emergencies involved in mass events are related to a variety of factors and processes. An important factor is the transmission of information on danger that has an influence on nonlinear crowd dynamics during the process of crowd dispersion. Due to much uncertainty in this process, there is an urgent need to propose a method to investigate the influence. In this paper, a novel fuzzy-theory-based method is presented to study crowd dynamics under the influence of information transmission. Fuzzy functions and rules are designed for the ambiguous description of human states. Reasonable inference is employed to decide the output values of decision making such as pedestrian movement speed and directions. Through simulation under four-way pedestrian situations, good crowd dispersion phenomena are achieved. Simulation results under different conditions demonstrate that information transmission cannot always induce successful crowd dispersion in all situations. This depends on whether decision strategies in response to information on danger are unified and effective, especially in dense crowds. Results also suggest that an increase in drift strength at low density and the percentage of pedestrians, who choose one of the furthest unoccupied Von Neumann neighbors from the dangerous source as the drift direction at high density, is helpful in crowd dispersion. Compared with previous work, our comprehensive study improves an in-depth understanding of nonlinear crowd dynamics under the effect of information on danger.

  8. Analysis of Influenza and RSV dynamics in the community using a ‘Local Transmission Zone’ approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Almogy, Gal; Stone, Lewi; Bernevig, B. Andrei; Wolf, Dana G.; Dorozko, Marina; Moses, Allon E.; Nir-Paz, Ran

    2017-02-01

    Understanding the dynamics of pathogen spread within urban areas is critical for the effective prevention and containment of communicable diseases. At these relatively small geographic scales, short-distance interactions and tightly knit sub-networks dominate the dynamics of pathogen transmission; yet, the effective boundaries of these micro-scale groups are generally not known and often ignored. Using clinical test results from hospital admitted patients we analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of Influenza Like Illness (ILI) in the city of Jerusalem over a period of three winter seasons. We demonstrate that this urban area is not a single, perfectly mixed ecology, but is in fact comprised of a set of more basic, relatively independent pathogen transmission units, which we term here Local Transmission Zones, LTZs. By identifying these LTZs, and using the dynamic pathogen-content information contained within them, we are able to differentiate between disease-causes at the individual patient level often with near-perfect predictive accuracy.

  9. Intergenerational Transmission of the Behavioral Consequences of Early Experience in Prairie Voles

    PubMed Central

    Stone, Anita Iyengar; Bales, Karen Lisa

    2010-01-01

    We examined intergenerational and epigenetic effects of early handling manipulations on the social behavior of the prairie vole (Microtus ochrogaster), a monogamous rodent. Laboratory-born parents and their newborn pups were assigned to either a MAN0 “zero handling” manipulation (transfer with a cup during weekly cage changes) or a MAN1 “gloved handling” manipulation (transfer with a gloved hand). Previous studies from our laboratory (Bales et al. 2007) showed that MAN0 juvenile males that received this manipulation as pups are less alloparental and that MAN0 adult females that received this manipulation as pups display impaired pair-bonding. In the present study, when MAN0 and MAN1 pups reached adulthood, they were mated in three combinations (MAN1 female × MAN1 male; MAN0 female × MAN1 male; MAN1 female and MAN0 male). Once the pairs produced offspring, we examined their parental behavior towards their own pups. The offspring of these pairings (F2 generation) also were tested as juveniles for alloparental behavior. MAN1 females paired with a MAN0 male displayed higher levels of parenting behaviors. In the F2 generation, juvenile offspring with a MAN0 parent were less alloparental than were offspring from other pairs. These results suggest that early experiences can be transmitted intergenerationally. PMID:20457234

  10. Simulation of the dynamical transmission of several-hundred-keV protons through a conical capillary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, A. X.; Zhu, B. H.; Niu, S. T.; Pan, P.; Han, C. Z.; Song, H. Y.; Shao, J. X.; Chen, X. M.

    2018-05-01

    The time evolution of the trajectories, angular distributions, and two-dimensional images of intermediate-energy protons being transmitted through a conical capillary was simulated. The simulation results indicate that the charge deposited in the capillary significantly enhances the probability of surface specular scattering and thus greatly enhances the transmission rate. Furthermore, this deposited-charge-assisted specular reflection causes the transmission rate to exhibit an energy dependence proportional to E-1, which is very consistent with the experimental data. After transmission at nonzero tilt angles, the angular distribution of several-hundred-keV protons is far from symmetric, unlike in the case of keV protons.

  11. Mathematical Modeling of the Transmission Dynamics of Clostridium difficile Infection and Colonization in Healthcare Settings: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Gingras, Guillaume; Guertin, Marie-Hélène; Laprise, Jean-François; Drolet, Mélanie; Brisson, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Background We conducted a systematic review of mathematical models of transmission dynamic of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in healthcare settings, to provide an overview of existing models and their assessment of different CDI control strategies. Methods We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science up to February 3, 2016 for transmission-dynamic models of Clostridium difficile in healthcare settings. The models were compared based on their natural history representation of Clostridium difficile, which could include health states (S-E-A-I-R-D: Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Resistant-Deceased) and the possibility to include healthcare workers and visitors (vectors of transmission). Effectiveness of interventions was compared using the relative reduction (compared to no intervention or current practice) in outcomes such as incidence of colonization, CDI, CDI recurrence, CDI mortality, and length of stay. Results Nine studies describing six different models met the inclusion criteria. Over time, the models have generally increased in complexity in terms of natural history and transmission dynamics and number/complexity of interventions/bundles of interventions examined. The models were categorized into four groups with respect to their natural history representation: S-A-I-R, S-E-A-I, S-A-I, and S-E-A-I-R-D. Seven studies examined the impact of CDI control strategies. Interventions aimed at controlling the transmission, lowering CDI vulnerability and reducing the risk of recurrence/mortality were predicted to reduce CDI incidence by 3–49%, 5–43% and 5–29%, respectively. Bundles of interventions were predicted to reduce CDI incidence by 14–84%. Conclusions Although CDI is a major public health problem, there are very few published transmission-dynamic models of Clostridium difficile. Published models vary substantially in the interventions examined, the outcome measures used and the representation of the natural history of Clostridium

  12. Early Exposure to Dynamic Environments Alters Patterns of Motor Exploration throughout the Lifespan

    PubMed Central

    Hong, S. Lee; Estrada-Sánchez, Ana María; Barton, Scott J.; Rebec, George V.

    2016-01-01

    We assessed early rearing conditions on aging-related changes in mouse behavior. Two isolated-housing groups, Running Wheel (IHRW) and Empty Cage (IHEC), were compared against two enriched environments, Static (EEST) and Dynamic (EEDY), both of which included toys and other mice. For EEDY, the location of toys and sources of food and water changed daily, but remained constant for EEST. All mice, randomly assigned to one of the four groups at ~4 weeks of age, remained in their respective environments for 25 weeks followed by single housing in empty cages. Beginning at ~40 weeks of age, all mice were tested at monthly intervals in a plus-shaped maze in which we measured the number of arm entries and the probability of entering a perpendicular arm. Despite making significantly more arm entries than any other group, IHEC mice also were less likely to turn into the left or right arm, a sign of motor inflexibility. Both EEDY and EEST mice showed enhanced turning relative to IHRW and IHEC groups, but only EEDY mice maintained their turning performance for up to ~100 weeks of age. EEDY and EEST mice also were unique in showing an increase in expression of the major glutamate transporter (GLT1) in striatum, but a decrease in motor cortex, suggesting a need for further assessment of environmental manipulations on long-term changes in forebrain glutamate transmission. Our behavioral results indicate that early exposure to continually changing environments, rather than socialization or exercise alone, results in life-long changes in patterns of motor exploration. PMID:26778790

  13. Winglets of the eye: dominant transmission of early adult pterygium of the conjunctiva.

    PubMed Central

    Hecht, F; Shoptaugh, M G

    1990-01-01

    A pterygium, a wing-like thickening, of the bulbar conjunctiva is of environmental interest because it can occur on prolonged exposure to wind and weather. We describe a family with pterygium in two generations without a history of unusual exposure to the elements. There were six females and five males (including a set of male twins) with seven bilateral and four unilateral pterygia. The onset was unique in being in early adulthood, from the late teens through the twenties. This new genetic form can be distinguished by the age of onset from congenital and mid-adult pterygia, which are inherited as autosomal dominant traits. Irrespective of age, the treatment of conjunctival pterygium is surgical excision. PMID:2359104

  14. Vectors and transmission dynamics for Setaria tundra (Filarioidea; Onchocercidae), a parasite of reindeer in Finland

    PubMed Central

    Laaksonen, Sauli; Solismaa, Milla; Kortet, Raine; Kuusela, Jussi; Oksanen, Antti

    2009-01-01

    Background Recent studies have revealed expansion by an array of Filarioid nematodes' into the northern boreal region of Finland. The vector-borne nematode, Setaria tundra, caused a serious disease outbreak in the Finnish reindeer population in 2003–05. The main aim of this study was to understand the outbreak dynamics and the rapid expansion of S. tundra in the sub arctic. We describe the vectors of S. tundra, and its development in vectors, for the first time. Finally we discuss the results in the context of the host-parasite ecology of S. tundra in Finland Results Development of S. tundra to the infective stage occurs in mosquitoes, (genera Aedes and Anopheles). We consider Aedes spp. the most important vectors. The prevalence of S. tundra naturally infected mosquitoes from Finland varied from 0.5 to 2.5%. The rate of development in mosquitoes was temperature-dependent. Infective larvae were present approximately 14 days after a blood meal in mosquitoes maintained at room temperature (mean 21 C), but did not develop in mosquitoes maintained outside for 22 days at a mean temperature of 14.1 C. The third-stage (infective) larvae were elongated (mean length 1411 μm (SD 207), and width 28 μm (SD 2)). The anterior end was blunt, and bore two liplike structures, the posterior end slight tapering with a prominent terminal papilla. Infective larvae were distributed anteriorly in the insect's body, the highest abundance being 70 larvae in one mosquito. A questionnaire survey revealed that the peak activity of Culicidae in the reindeer herding areas of Finland was from the middle of June to the end of July and that warm summer weather was associated with reindeer flocking behaviour on mosquito-rich wetlands. Conclusion In the present work, S. tundra vectors and larval development were identified and described for the first time. Aedes spp. mosquitoes likely serve as the most important and competent vectors for S. tundra in Finland. Warm summers apparently promote

  15. Understanding African Swine Fever infection dynamics in Sardinia using a spatially explicit transmission model in domestic pig farms.

    PubMed

    Mur, L; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M; Fernández-Carrión, E; Jurado, C; Rolesu, S; Feliziani, F; Laddomada, A; Martínez-López, B

    2018-02-01

    African swine fever virus (ASFV) has been endemic in Sardinia since 1978, resulting in severe losses for local pig producers and creating important problems for the island's veterinary authorities. This study used a spatially explicit stochastic transmission model followed by two regression models to investigate the dynamics of ASFV spread amongst domestic pig farms, to identify geographic areas at highest risk and determine the role of different susceptible pig populations (registered domestic pigs, non-registered domestic pigs [brado] and wild boar) in ASF occurrence. We simulated transmission within and between farms using an adapted version of the previously described model known as Be-FAST. Results from the model revealed a generally low diffusion of ASF in Sardinia, with only 24% of the simulations resulting in disease spread, and for each simulated outbreak on average only four farms and 66 pigs were affected. Overall, local spread (indirect transmission between farms within a 2 km radius through fomites) was the most common route of transmission, being responsible for 98.6% of secondary cases. The risk of ASF occurrence for each domestic pig farm was estimated from the spread model results and integrated in two regression models together with available data for brado and wild boar populations. There was a significant association between the density of all three populations (domestic pigs, brado, and wild boar) and ASF occurrence in Sardinia. The most significant risk factors were the high densities of brado (OR = 2.2) and wild boar (OR = 2.1). The results of both analyses demonstrated that ASF epidemiology and infection dynamics in Sardinia create a complex and multifactorial disease situation, where all susceptible populations play an important role. To stop ASF transmission in Sardinia, three main factors (improving biosecurity on domestic pig farms, eliminating brado practices and better management of wild boars) need to be addressed. © 2017

  16. Transmission dynamics of an insect-specific flavivirus in a naturally infected Culex pipiens laboratory colony and effects of co-infection on vector competence for West Nile virus.

    PubMed

    Bolling, Bethany G; Olea-Popelka, Francisco J; Eisen, Lars; Moore, Chester G; Blair, Carol D

    2012-06-05

    We established a laboratory colony of Culex pipiens mosquitoes from eggs collected in Colorado and discovered that mosquitoes in the colony are naturally infected with Culex flavivirus (CxFV), an insect-specific flavivirus. In this study we examined transmission dynamics of CxFV and effects of persistent CxFV infection on vector competence for West Nile virus (WNV). We found that vertical transmission is the primary mechanism for persistence of CxFV in Cx. pipiens, with venereal transmission potentially playing a minor role. Vector competence experiments indicated possible early suppression of WNV replication by persistent CxFV infection in Cx. pipiens. This is the first description of insect-specific flavivirus transmission dynamics in a naturally infected mosquito colony and the observation of delayed dissemination of superinfecting WNV suggests that the presence of CxFV may impact the intensity of enzootic transmission of WNV and the risk of human exposure to this important pathogen. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Interplanetary dust in the transmission electron microscope - Diverse materials from the early solar system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fraundorf, P.

    1981-01-01

    An analytical electron microscope study of dispersed interplanetary dust aggregates collected in the earth's stratosphere shows that, in spite of their similarities, the aggregates exhibit significant differences in composition, internal morphology, and mineralogy. Of 11 chondritic particles examined, two consist mostly of a noncrystalline chondritic material with an atomic S/Fe ratio equal to or greater than 2 in places, one consists of submicron metal and reduced silicate 'microchondrules' and sulfide grains embedded in a carbonaceous matrix, and another consists of submicron magnetic-decorated unequilibrated silicate and sulfide grains with thick low-Z coatings. Although the particles are unmetamorphosed by criteria commonly applied for chondritic meteorites, the presence of reduced chemistries and the ubiquity of mafic, instead of hydrated, silicates confirm that they are not simply C1 or C2 chondrite matrix material. The observations indicate that portions of some particles have not been significantly altered by thermal or radiation processes since their assembly, and that the particles probably contain fine debris from diverse processes in the early solar system.

  18. Column-by-column observation of dislocation motion in CdTe: Dynamic scanning transmission electron microscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Chen; Zhang, Yu-Yang; Pennycook, Timothy J.; Wu, Yelong; Lupini, Andrew R.; Paudel, Naba; Pantelides, Sokrates T.; Yan, Yanfa; Pennycook, Stephen J.

    2016-10-01

    The dynamics of partial dislocations in CdTe have been observed at the atomic scale using aberration-corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), allowing the mobility of different dislocations to be directly compared: Cd-core Shockley partial dislocations are more mobile than Te-core partials, and dislocation cores with unpaired columns have higher mobility than those without unpaired columns. The dynamic imaging also provides insight into the process by which the dislocations glide. Dislocations with dangling bonds on unpaired columns are found to be more mobile because the dangling bonds mediate the bond exchanges required for the dislocations to move. Furthermore, a screw dislocation has been resolved to dissociate into a Shockley partial-dislocation pair along two different directions, revealing a way for the screw dislocation to glide in the material. The results show that dynamic STEM imaging has the potential to uncover the details of dislocation motion not easily accessible by other means.

  19. Within-farm transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease as revealed by the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain.

    PubMed

    Chis Ster, Irina; Dodd, Peter J; Ferguson, Neil M

    2012-08-01

    This paper uses statistical and mathematical models to examine the potential impact of within-farm transmission dynamics on the spread of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Great Britain. We partly parameterize a simple within farm transmission model using data from experimental studies of FMD pathogenesis, embed this model within an existing between-farm transmission model, and then estimate unknown parameters (such as the species-specific within-farm reproduction number) from the 2001 epidemic case data using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. If the probability of detecting an infected premises depends on farm size and species mix then the within-farm species specific basic reproduction ratios for baseline models are estimated to be 21 (16, 25) and 14 (10, 19) for cattle and sheep, respectively. Alternatively, if detection is independent of farm size, then the corresponding estimates are 49 (41, 61) and 10 (1.4, 21). Both model variants predict that the average fraction of total farm infectiousness accumulated prior to detection of infection on an IP is about 30-50% in cattle or mixed farms. The corresponding estimate for sheep farms depended more on the detection model, being 65-80% if detection was linked to the farms' characteristics, but only 25% if not. We highlighted evidence which reinforces the role of within-farm dynamics in contributing to the long tail of the 2001 epidemic. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Transmission Dynamics of the Etiological Agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of Public Health Interventions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riley, Steven; Fraser, Christophe; Donnelly, Christl A.; Ghani, Azra C.; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Hedley, Anthony J.; Leung, Gabriel M.; Ho, Lai-Ming; Lam, Tai-Hing; Thach, Thuan Q.; Chau, Patsy; Chan, King-Pan; Lo, Su-Vui; Leung, Pak-Yin; Tsang, Thomas; Ho, William; Lee, Koon-Hung; Lau, Edith M. C.; Ferguson, Neil M.; Anderson, Roy M.

    2003-06-01

    We present an analysis of the first 10 weeks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The epidemic to date has been characterized by two large clusters-initiated by two separate ``super-spread'' events (SSEs)-and by ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model to data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that the etiological agent of SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSEs, we estimate that 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case on average at the start of the epidemic, with a substantial contribution from hospital transmission. Transmission rates fell during the epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals. As a result, the epidemic is now in decline, although continued vigilance is necessary for this to be maintained. Restrictions on longer range population movement are shown to be a potentially useful additional control measure in some contexts. We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission.

  1. The dynamic process and microscopic mechanism of extraordinary terahertz transmission through perforated superconducting films

    PubMed Central

    Wu, J. B.; Zhang, X.; Jin, B. B.; Liu, H. T.; Chen, Y. H.; Li, Z. Y.; Zhang, C. H.; Kang, L.; Xu, W. W.; Chen, J.; Wang, H. B.; Tonouchi, M.; Wu, P. H.

    2015-01-01

    Superconductor is a compelling plasmonic medium at terahertz frequencies owing to its intrinsic low Ohmic loss and good tuning property. However, the microscopic physics of the interaction between terahertz wave and superconducting plasmonic structures is still unknown. In this paper, we conducted experiments of the enhanced terahertz transmission through a series of superconducting NbN subwavelength hole arrays, and employed microscopic hybrid wave model in theoretical analysis of the role of hybrid waves in the enhanced transmission. The theoretical calculation provided a good match of experimental data. In particular, we obtained the following results. When the width of the holes is far below wavelength, the enhanced transmission is mainly caused by localized resonance around individual holes. On the contrary, when the holes are large, hybrid waves scattered by the array of holes dominate the extraordinary transmission. The surface plasmon polaritions are proved to be launched on the surface of superconducting film and the excitation efficiency increases when the temperature approaches critical temperature and the working frequency goes near energy gap frequency. This work will enrich our knowledge on the microscopic physics of extraordinary optical transmission at terahertz frequencies and contribute to developing terahertz plasmonic devices. PMID:26498994

  2. Early Results from Solar Dynamic Space Power System Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shaltens, Richard K.; Mason, Lee S.

    1996-01-01

    A government/industry team designed, built and tested a 2-kWe solar dynamic space power system in a large thermal vacuum facility with a simulated Sun at the NASA Lewis Research Center. The Lewis facility provides an accurate simulation of temperatures, high vacuum and solar flux as encountered in low-Earth orbit. The solar dynamic system includes a Brayton power conversion unit integrated with a solar receiver which is designed to store energy for continuous power operation during the eclipse phase of the orbit. This paper reviews the goals and status of the Solar Dynamic Ground Test Demonstration project and describes the initial testing, including both operational and performance data. System testing to date has accumulated over 365 hours of power operation (ranging from 400 watts to 2.0-W(sub e)), including 187 simulated orbits, 16 ambient starts and 2 hot restarts. Data are shown for an orbital startup, transient and steady-state orbital operation and shutdown. System testing with varying insolation levels and operating speeds is discussed. The solar dynamic ground test demonstration is providing the experience and confidence toward a successful flight demonstration of the solar dynamic technologies on the Space Station Mir in 1997.

  3. A systematic review of transmission dynamic studies of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in non-hospital residential facilities.

    PubMed

    Kwok, Kin On; Read, Jonathan M; Tang, Arthur; Chen, Hong; Riley, Steven; Kam, Kai Man

    2018-04-18

    Non-hospital residential facilities are important reservoirs for MRSA transmission. However, conclusions and public health implications drawn from the many mathematical models depicting nosocomial MRSA transmission may not be applicable to these settings. Therefore, we reviewed the MRSA transmission dynamics studies in defined non-hospital residential facilities to: (1) provide an overview of basic epidemiology which has been addressed; (2) identify future research direction; and (3) improve future model implementation. A review was conducted by searching related keywords in PUBMED without time restriction as well as internet searches via Google search engine. We included only articles describing the epidemiological transmission pathways of MRSA/community-associated MRSA within and between defined non-hospital residential settings. Among the 10 included articles, nursing homes (NHs) and correctional facilities (CFs) were two settings considered most frequently. Importation of colonized residents was a plausible reason for MRSA outbreaks in NHs, where MRSA was endemic without strict infection control interventions. The importance of NHs over hospitals in increasing nosocomial MRSA prevalence was highlighted. Suggested interventions in NHs included: appropriate staffing level, screening and decolonizing, and hand hygiene. On the other hand, the small population amongst inmates in CFs has no effect on MRSA community transmission. Included models ranged from system-level compartmental models to agent-based models. There was no consensus over the course of disease progression in these models, which were mainly featured with NH residents /CF inmates/ hospital patients as transmission pathways. Some parameters used by these models were outdated or unfit. Importance of NHs has been highlighted from these current studies addressing scattered aspects of MRSA epidemiology. However, the wide variety of non-hospital residential settings suggest that more work is needed before

  4. Assessing the role of landscape connectivity on Opisthorchis viverrini transmission dynamics.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yi-Chen; Yuen, Roy; Feng, Chen-Chieh; Sithithaworn, Paiboon; Kim, Ick-Hoi

    2017-08-01

    Opisthorchis viverrini (Ov) is one of the most important human parasitic diseases in Southeast Asia. Although the concept of connectivity is widely used to comprehend disease dispersal, knowledge of the influences of landscape connectivity on Ov transmission is still rudimentary. This study aimed to investigate the role of landscape connectivity in Ov transmission between the human and the first intermediate snail hosts. Fieldwork was conducted in three villages respectively in Kamalasai District, Kalasin Province, Phu Wiang District, Khon Kaen Province, and Nong Saeng District, Udon Thani Province. Bithynia snails were collected to examine parasitic infections, water samples were analyzed for fecal contamination, and locations of septic tanks and connections between habitat patches with observable water movement were surveyed. Euclidean distance, topological link and distance, and graph measures were employed to quantify the connectivity between human and snail habitats. The findings showed that snail patches with higher fecal contents were generally located nearer to septic tanks. The statistically significant results for the topological link and distance measures highlighted the importance of water in functionally facilitating Ov transmission. Graph measures revealed differences in landscape connectivity across the sites. The site with the largest landscape component size and the most mutually connected snail patches coincided with the presence of Ov parasite, reinforcing its higher risk for human to snail transmission. The site with the dissected landscape structure potentially limited the transmission. This study underscored the potential effect of landscape connectivity on Ov transmission, contributing to the understanding of the spatial variation of Ov infection risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Transmission dynamics and economics of rabies control in dogs and humans in an African city.

    PubMed

    Zinsstag, J; Dürr, S; Penny, M A; Mindekem, R; Roth, F; Menendez Gonzalez, S; Naissengar, S; Hattendorf, J

    2009-09-01

    Human rabies in developing countries can be prevented through interventions directed at dogs. Potential cost-savings for the public health sector of interventions aimed at animal-host reservoirs should be assessed. Available deterministic models of rabies transmission between dogs were extended to include dog-to-human rabies transmission. Model parameters were fitted to routine weekly rabid-dog and exposed-human cases reported in N'Djaména, the capital of Chad. The estimated transmission rates between dogs (beta(d)) were 0.0807 km2/(dogs x week) and between dogs and humans (beta(dh)) 0.0002 km2/(dogs x week). The effective reproductive ratio (R(e)) at the onset of our observations was estimated at 1.01, indicating low-level endemic stability of rabies transmission. Human rabies incidence depended critically on dog-related transmission parameters. We simulated the effects of mass dog vaccination and the culling of a percentage of the dog population on human rabies incidence. A single parenteral dog rabies-mass vaccination campaign achieving a coverage of least 70% appears to be sufficient to interrupt transmission of rabies to humans for at least 6 years. The cost-effectiveness of mass dog vaccination was compared to postexposure prophylaxis (PEP), which is the current practice in Chad. PEP does not reduce future human exposure. Its cost-effectiveness is estimated at US $46 per disability adjusted life-years averted. Cost-effectiveness for PEP, together with a dog-vaccination campaign, breaks even with cost-effectiveness of PEP alone after almost 5 years. Beyond a time-frame of 7 years, it appears to be more cost-effective to combine parenteral dog-vaccination campaigns with human PEP compared to human PEP alone.

  6. Estimation of the dynamics and rate of transmission of classical swine fever (hog cholera) in wild pigs.

    PubMed Central

    Hone, J.; Pech, R.; Yip, P.

    1992-01-01

    Infectious diseases establish in a population of wildlife hosts when the number of secondary infections is greater than or equal to one. To estimate whether establishment will occur requires extensive experience or a mathematical model of disease dynamics and estimates of the parameters of the disease model. The latter approach is explored here. Methods for estimating key model parameters, the transmission coefficient (beta) and the basic reproductive rate (RDRS), are described using classical swine fever (hog cholera) in wild pigs as an example. The tentative results indicate that an acute infection of classical swine fever will establish in a small population of wild pigs. Data required for estimation of disease transmission rates are reviewed and sources of bias and alternative methods discussed. A comprehensive evaluation of the biases and efficiencies of the methods is needed. PMID:1582476

  7. Study of the kinematic and dynamic characteristics of a wormgear transmission for helicopter applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sun, D. C.; Yuan, Qin

    1994-01-01

    The first phase of the study of the performance of a wormgear transmission is reported. In this phase the work included the selection of a double-enveloping wormgear type, and its dimensions, suitable for use in helicopter transmissions; the 3-D graphics representation of the selected wormgear using the I-DEAS software; the analysis of the kinematics of meshing; the analysis of load sharing among the meshing teeth; and the implementation of the analyses in a computer program. The report describes the analyses, their results, and the use of the computer programs.

  8. Nitrogen alters carbon dynamics during early succession in boreal forest

    Treesearch

    Steven D. Allison; Tracy B. Gartner; Michelle C. Mack; Krista McGuire; Kathleen Treseder

    2010-01-01

    Boreal forests are an important source of wood products, and fertilizers could be used to improve forest yields, especially in nutrient poor regions of the boreal zone. With climate change, fire frequencies may increase, resulting in a larger fraction of the boreal landscape present in early successional stages. Since most fertilization studies have focused on mature...

  9. Impact of combined vector-control and vaccination strategies on transmission dynamics of dengue fever: a model-based analysis.

    PubMed

    Knerer, Gerhart; Currie, Christine S M; Brailsford, Sally C

    2015-06-01

    Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease prevalent in tropical and subtropical regions. It is an important public health problem with a considerable and often under-valued disease burden in terms of frequency, cost and quality-of-life. Recent literature reviews have documented the development of mathematical models of dengue fever both to identify important characteristics for future model development as well as to assess the impact of dengue control interventions. Such reviews highlight the importance of short-term cross-protection; antibody-dependent enhancement; and seasonality (in terms of both favourable and unfavourable conditions for mosquitoes). The compartmental model extends work by Bartley (2002) and combines the following factors: seasonality, age-structure, consecutive infection by all four serotypes, cross-protection and immune enhancement, as well as combined vector-host transmission. The model is used to represent dengue transmission dynamics using parameters appropriate for Thailand and to assess the potential impact of combined vector-control and vaccination strategies including routine and catch-up vaccination strategies on disease dynamics. When seasonality and temporary cross-protection between serotypes are included, the model is able to approximate the observed incidence of dengue fever in Thailand. We find vaccination to be the most effective single intervention, albeit with imperfect efficacy (30.2 %) and limited duration of protection. However, in combination, control interventions and vaccination exhibit a marked impact on dengue fever transmission. This study shows that an imperfect vaccine can be a useful weapon in reducing disease spread within the community, although it will be most effective when promoted as one of several strategies for combating dengue fever transmission.

  10. Respiratory virus transmission dynamics determine timing of asthma exacerbation peaks: Evidence from a population-level model.

    PubMed

    Eggo, Rosalind M; Scott, James G; Galvani, Alison P; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2016-02-23

    Asthma exacerbations exhibit a consistent annual pattern, closely mirroring the school calendar. Although respiratory viruses--the "common cold" viruses--are implicated as a principal cause, there is little evidence to link viral prevalence to seasonal differences in risk. We jointly fit a common cold transmission model and a model of biological and environmental exacerbation triggers to estimate effects on hospitalization risk. Asthma hospitalization rate, influenza prevalence, and air quality measures are available, but common cold circulation is not; therefore, we generate estimates of viral prevalence using a transmission model. Our deterministic multivirus transmission model includes transmission rates that vary when school is closed. We jointly fit the two models to 7 y of daily asthma hospitalizations in adults and children (66,000 events) in eight metropolitan areas. For children, we find that daily viral prevalence is the strongest predictor of asthma hospitalizations, with transmission reduced by 45% (95% credible interval =41-49%) during school closures. We detect a transient period of nonspecific immunity between infections lasting 19 (17-21) d. For adults, hospitalizations are more variable, with influenza driving wintertime peaks. Neither particulate matter nor ozone was an important predictor, perhaps because of the large geographic area of the populations. The school calendar clearly and predictably drives seasonal variation in common cold prevalence, which results in the "back-to-school" asthma exacerbation pattern seen in children and indirectly contributes to exacerbation risk in adults. This study provides a framework for anticipating the seasonal dynamics of common colds and the associated risks for asthmatics.

  11. Transportation properties of a high-current magnetically insulated transmission line and dynamics of the electrode plasma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anan'ev, S. S.; Bakshaev, Yu. L.; Bartov, A. V.; Blinov, P. I.; Dan'ko, S. A.; Zhuzhunashvili, A. I.; Kazakov, E. D.; Kalinin, Yu. G.; Kingsep, A. S.; Korolev, V. D.; Mizhiritskii, V. I.; Smirnov, V. P.; Tkachenko, S. I.; Chernenko, A. S.

    2008-07-01

    Results are presented from experimental studies of a section of a magnetically insulated transmission line (MITL) with a current density of up to 500 MA/cm2 and linear current density of up to 7 MA/cm (the parameters close to those in a fast-Z-pinch-driven fusion reactor projected at Sandia Laboratories). The experiments were performed in the S-300 facility (3 MA, 0.15 Ω, 100 ns). At high linear current densities, the surface of the ohmically heated MITL electrode can explode and a plasma layer can form near the electrode surface. As a result, the MITL can lose its transmission properties due to the shunting of the vacuum gap by the plasma produced. In this series of experiments, the dynamics of the electrode plasma and the dependence of the transmission properties of the MITL on the material and cleanness of the electrode surface were studied. It is shown experimentally that, when the current with a linear density of up to 7 MA/cm begins to flow along a model MITL, the input and output currents differ by less than 10% over a time interval of up to 230 ns for nickel electrodes and up to 350 ns for a line with a gold central electrode. No effect of the oil film present on the electrode surface on the loss of the transmission properties of the line was observed. It is also shown that electron losses insignificantly contribute to the total current balance. The experimental results are compared with calculations of the electrode explosion and the subsequent expansion of the plasma layer. A conclusion is made that the life-time of the model MITL satisfies the requirements imposed on the transmission lines intended for use in the projected thermonuclear reactor.

  12. Respiratory virus transmission dynamics determine timing of asthma exacerbation peaks: Evidence from a population-level model

    PubMed Central

    Scott, James G.; Galvani, Alison P.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2016-01-01

    Asthma exacerbations exhibit a consistent annual pattern, closely mirroring the school calendar. Although respiratory viruses—the “common cold” viruses—are implicated as a principal cause, there is little evidence to link viral prevalence to seasonal differences in risk. We jointly fit a common cold transmission model and a model of biological and environmental exacerbation triggers to estimate effects on hospitalization risk. Asthma hospitalization rate, influenza prevalence, and air quality measures are available, but common cold circulation is not; therefore, we generate estimates of viral prevalence using a transmission model. Our deterministic multivirus transmission model includes transmission rates that vary when school is closed. We jointly fit the two models to 7 y of daily asthma hospitalizations in adults and children (66,000 events) in eight metropolitan areas. For children, we find that daily viral prevalence is the strongest predictor of asthma hospitalizations, with transmission reduced by 45% (95% credible interval =41–49%) during school closures. We detect a transient period of nonspecific immunity between infections lasting 19 (17–21) d. For adults, hospitalizations are more variable, with influenza driving wintertime peaks. Neither particulate matter nor ozone was an important predictor, perhaps because of the large geographic area of the populations. The school calendar clearly and predictably drives seasonal variation in common cold prevalence, which results in the “back-to-school” asthma exacerbation pattern seen in children and indirectly contributes to exacerbation risk in adults. This study provides a framework for anticipating the seasonal dynamics of common colds and the associated risks for asthmatics. PMID:26858436

  13. Between-group transmission dynamics of the swallow bug, Oeciacus vicarius.

    PubMed

    Brown, Charles R; Brown, Mary Bomberger

    2005-06-01

    The parasitic cimicid swallow bug, Oeciacus vicarius, is the principal invertebrate vector for Buggy Creek virus (BCRV) and has also been associated with Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus. To help understand the spread of this vector, we experimentally measured the transmission of O. vicarius between groups (colonies) of its main host, the cliff swallow (Petrochelidonpyrrhonota), in the field. Transmission of bugs between colonies varied significantly with year, size of the colony, and week within the season. Bug immigration into sites tended to peak in mid-summer. Swallow nests in larger colonies had more consistent rates of bug introduction than did nests in small colonies, but within a colony a given nest's weekly immigrant-bug count varied widely across the season. Transmission of O. vicarius between host social groups follows broadly predictable seasonal patterns, but there is nevertheless temporal and spatial heterogeneity in bug transmission. By understanding how long-distance movement by this vector varies in time and space, we can better predict where and when BCRV epizootics may occur.

  14. Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region, 1955-2004.

    PubMed

    Banu, Shahera; Hu, Wenbiao; Guo, Yuming; Naish, Suchithra; Tong, Shilu

    2014-01-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most important emerging arboviral human diseases. Globally, DF incidence has increased by 30-fold over the last fifty years, and the geographic range of the virus and its vectors has expanded. The disease is now endemic in more than 120 countries in tropical and subtropical parts of the world. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region over a 50-year period, and identified the disease's cluster areas. The World Health Organization's DengueNet provided the annual number of DF cases in 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region for the period 1955 to 2004. This fifty-year dataset was divided into five ten-year periods as the basis for the investigation of DF transmission trends. Space-time cluster analyses were conducted using scan statistics to detect the disease clusters. This study shows an increasing trend in the spatiotemporal distribution of DF in the Asia-Pacific region over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Singapore and Malaysia are identified as the most likely clusters (relative risk = 13.02) of DF transmission in this region in the period studied (1995 to 2004). The study also indicates that, for the most part, DF transmission has expanded southwards in the region. This information will lead to the improvement of DF prevention and control strategies in the Asia-Pacific region by prioritizing control efforts and directing them where they are most needed.

  15. Dynamic range of Nef-mediated evasion of HLA class II-restricted immune responses in early HIV-1 infection.

    PubMed

    Mahiti, Macdonald; Brumme, Zabrina L; Jessen, Heiko; Brockman, Mark A; Ueno, Takamasa

    2015-07-31

    HLA class II-restricted CD4(+) T lymphocytes play an important role in controlling HIV-1 replication, especially in the acute/early infection stage. But, HIV-1 Nef counteracts this immune response by down-regulating HLA-DR and up-regulating the invariant chain associated with immature HLA-II (Ii). Although functional heterogeneity of various Nef activities, including down-regulation of HLA class I (HLA-I), is well documented, our understanding of Nef-mediated evasion of HLA-II-restricted immune responses during acute/early infection remains limited. Here, we examined the ability of Nef clones from 47 subjects with acute/early progressive infection and 46 subjects with chronic progressive infection to up-regulate Ii and down-regulate HLA-DR and HLA-I from the surface of HIV-infected cells. HLA-I down-regulation function was preserved among acute/early Nef clones, whereas both HLA-DR down-regulation and Ii up-regulation functions displayed relatively broad dynamic ranges. Nef's ability to down-regulate HLA-DR and up-regulate Ii correlated positively at this stage, suggesting they are functionally linked in vivo. Acute/early Nef clones also exhibited higher HLA-DR down-regulation and lower Ii up-regulation functions compared to chronic Nef clones. Taken together, our results support enhanced Nef-mediated HLA class II immune evasion activities in acute/early compared to chronic infection, highlighting the potential importance of these functions following transmission. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Dynamic Self-Organization and Early Lexical Development in Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Ping; Zhao, Xiaowei; Whinney, Brian Mac

    2007-01-01

    In this study we present a self-organizing connectionist model of early lexical development. We call this model DevLex-II, based on the earlier DevLex model. DevLex-II can simulate a variety of empirical patterns in children's acquisition of words. These include a clear vocabulary spurt, effects of word frequency and length on age of acquisition,…

  17. Dynamic changes in the interchromosomal interaction of early histone gene loci during development of sea urchin.

    PubMed

    Matsushita, Masaya; Ochiai, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Ken-Ichi T; Hayashi, Sayaka; Yamamoto, Takashi; Awazu, Akinori; Sakamoto, Naoaki

    2017-12-15

    The nuclear positioning and chromatin dynamics of eukaryotic genes are closely related to the regulation of gene expression, but they have not been well examined during early development, which is accompanied by rapid cell cycle progression and dynamic changes in nuclear organization, such as nuclear size and chromatin constitution. In this study, we focused on the early development of the sea urchin Hemicentrotus pulcherrimus and performed three-dimensional fluorescence in situ hybridization of gene loci encoding early histones (one of the types of histone in sea urchin). There are two non-allelic early histone gene loci per sea urchin genome. We found that during the morula stage, when the early histone gene expression levels are at their maximum, interchromosomal interactions were often formed between the early histone gene loci on separate chromosomes and that the gene loci were directed to locate to more interior positions. Furthermore, these interactions were associated with the active transcription of the early histone genes. Thus, such dynamic interchromosomal interactions may contribute to the efficient synthesis of early histone mRNA during the morula stage of sea urchin development. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  18. Understanding the effects of different HIV transmission models in individual-based microsimulation of HIV epidemic dynamics in people who inject drugs

    PubMed Central

    MONTEIRO, J.F.G.; ESCUDERO, D.J.; WEINREB, C.; FLANIGAN, T.; GALEA, S.; FRIEDMAN, S.R.; MARSHALL, B.D.L.

    2017-01-01

    SUMMARY We investigated how different models of HIV transmission, and assumptions regarding the distribution of unprotected sex and syringe-sharing events (‘risk acts’), affect quantitative understanding of HIV transmission process in people who inject drugs (PWID). The individual-based model simulated HIV transmission in a dynamic sexual and injecting network representing New York City. We constructed four HIV transmission models: model 1, constant probabilities; model 2, random number of sexual and parenteral acts; model 3, viral load individual assigned; and model 4, two groups of partnerships (low and high risk). Overall, models with less heterogeneity were more sensitive to changes in numbers risk acts, producing HIV incidence up to four times higher than that empirically observed. Although all models overestimated HIV incidence, micro-simulations with greater heterogeneity in the HIV transmission modelling process produced more robust results and better reproduced empirical epidemic dynamics. PMID:26753627

  19. Direct Observation Through In Situ Transmission Electron Microscope of Early States of Crystallization in Nanoscale Metallic Glasses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Y.; Sohn, S.; Schroers, J.; Cha, J. J.

    2017-11-01

    Crystallization is a complex process that involves multiscale physics such as diffusion of atomic species over multiple length scales, thermodynamic energy considerations, and multiple possible intermediate states. In situ crystallization experiments inside a transmission electron microscope (TEM) using nanostructured metallic glasses (MGs) provide a unique platform to study directly crystallization kinetics and pathways. Here, we study the embryonic state of eutectic growth using Pt-Ni-Cu-P MG nanorods under in situ TEM. We directly observe the nucleation and growth of a Ni-rich polymorphic phase, followed by the nucleation and slower growth of a Cu-rich phase. The suppressed growth kinetics of the Cu-rich phase is attributed to locally changing chemical compositions. In addition, we show that growth can be controlled by incorporation of an entire nucleus instead of individual atoms. Such a nucleus has to align with the crystallographic orientation of a larger grain before it can be incorporated into the crystal. By directly observing the crystallization processes, particularly the early stages of non-polymorphic growth, in situ TEM crystallization studies of MG nanostructures provide a wealth of information, some of which can be applied to typical bulk crystallization.

  20. Dynamics of periodic spring-mass chain coupled with an electric transmission line

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belloni, Edoardo; Cenedese, Mattia; Braghin, Francesco

    2017-04-01

    Periodic structures have received large interest due to their peculiar behavior: they have band gaps, that is portions of the frequency response along with any wave incoming in the structure is reflected. Numerous are the applications, like metamaterials and locally resonant structures. Nowadays, new possibilities could come from mechanical periodic structures that are connected to an electrical transmission line, periodic in turn. Starting from this idea, this paper analyses ideal a mono-atomic spring-mass chain, considering the springs connected to a periodic electric network, composed by inductances (and resistors): these simple examples will show how the frequency response is affected. In particular, the mutual influence between the electric and mechanical domain is highlighted, and the contribution of parameters on band gap positioning and design is explored. Details are provided about vibration modes and wave transmission.

  1. An adaptive transmission protocol for managing dynamic shared states in collaborative surgical simulation.

    PubMed

    Qin, J; Choi, K S; Ho, Simon S M; Heng, P A

    2008-01-01

    A force prediction algorithm is proposed to facilitate virtual-reality (VR) based collaborative surgical simulation by reducing the effect of network latencies. State regeneration is used to correct the estimated prediction. This algorithm is incorporated into an adaptive transmission protocol in which auxiliary features such as view synchronization and coupling control are equipped to ensure the system consistency. We implemented this protocol using multi-threaded technique on a cluster-based network architecture.

  2. Modeling socio-demography to capture tuberculosis transmission dynamics in a low burden setting

    PubMed Central

    Ajelli, Marco; Yang, Zhenhua; Merler, Stefano; Furlanello, Cesare; Kirschner, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Evidence of preferential mixing through selected social routes has been suggested for the transmission of tuberculosis (TB) infection in low burden settings. A realistic modelization of these contact routes is needed to appropriately assess the impact of individually targeted control strategies, such as contact network investigation of index cases and treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI). We propose an age-structured, socio-demographic individual based model (IBM) with a realistic, time-evolving structure of preferential contacts in a population. In particular, transmission within households, schools and work-places, together with a component of casual, distance-dependent contacts are considered. We also compared the model against two other formulations having no social structure of contacts (homogeneous mixing transmission): a baseline deterministic model without age structure and an age-structured IBM. The socio-demographic IBM better fitted recent longitudinal data on TB epidemiology in Arkansas, USA, which serves as an example of a low burden setting. Inclusion of age structure in the model proved fundamental to capturing actual proportions of reactivated TB cases (as opposed to recently transmitted) as well as profiling age-group specific incidence. The socio-demographic structure additionally provides a prediction of TB transmission rates (the rate of infection in household contacts and the rate of secondary cases in household and workplace contacts). These results suggest that the socio-demographic IBM is an optimal choice for evaluating current control strategies, including contact network investigation of index cases, and the simulation of alternative scenarios, particularly for TB eradication targets. PMID:21906603

  3. Dynamics of synthetic drugs transmission model with psychological addicts and general incidence rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Mingju; Liu, Sanyang; Xiang, Hong; Li, Jun

    2018-02-01

    Synthetic drugs are replacing traditional ones and becoming the main popular ones gradually, which have given rise to serious social issues in recent years. In this paper, a synthetic drugs transmission model with psychological addicts and general contact rate is proposed. The local and global stabilities are decided by the basic reproduction number R0. By analyzing the sensitivity of parameters, we obtain that controlling psychological addiction is better than drugs treatment. These results are verified by numerical simulations.

  4. Predicting the Impact of Vaccination on the Transmission Dynamics of Typhoid in South Asia: A Mathematical Modeling Study

    PubMed Central

    Pitzer, Virginia E.; Bowles, Cayley C.; Baker, Stephen; Kang, Gagandeep; Balaji, Veeraraghavan; Farrar, Jeremy J.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

    2014-01-01

    Background Modeling of the transmission dynamics of typhoid allows for an evaluation of the potential direct and indirect effects of vaccination; however, relevant typhoid models rooted in data have rarely been deployed. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a parsimonious age-structured model describing the natural history and immunity to typhoid infection. The model was fit to data on culture-confirmed cases of typhoid fever presenting to Christian Medical College hospital in Vellore, India from 2000–2012. The model was then used to evaluate the potential impact of school-based vaccination strategies using live oral, Vi-polysaccharide, and Vi-conjugate vaccines. The model was able to reproduce the incidence and age distribution of typhoid cases in Vellore. The basic reproductive number (R 0) of typhoid was estimated to be 2.8 in this setting. Vaccination was predicted to confer substantial indirect protection leading to a decrease in the incidence of typhoid in the short term, but (intuitively) typhoid incidence was predicted to rebound 5–15 years following a one-time campaign. Conclusions/Significance We found that model predictions for the overall and indirect effects of vaccination depend strongly on the role of chronic carriers in transmission. Carrier transmissibility was tentatively estimated to be low, consistent with recent studies, but was identified as a pivotal area for future research. It is unlikely that typhoid can be eliminated from endemic settings through vaccination alone. PMID:24416466

  5. Transmission Dynamics, Border Entry Screening, and School Holidays during the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic, China

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Hongjie; Cauchemez, Simon; Donnelly, Christl A.; Zhou, Lei; Feng, Luzhao; Xiang, Nijuan; Zheng, Jiandong; Ye, Min; Huai, Yang; Liao, Qiaohong; Peng, Zhibin; Feng, Yunxia; Jiang, Hui; Yang, Weizhong; Wang, Yu; Feng, Zijian

    2012-01-01

    Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus spread rapidly around the world in 2009. We used multiple data sources from surveillance systems and specific investigations to characterize the transmission patterns of this virus in China during May–November 2009 and analyze the effectiveness of border entry screening and holiday-related school closures on transmission. In China, age distribution and transmission dynamic characteristics were similar to those in Northern Hemisphere temperate countries. The epidemic was focused in children, with an effective reproduction number of ≈1.2–1.3. The 8 days of national holidays in October reduced the effective reproduction number by 37% (95% credible interval 28%–45%) and increased underreporting by ≈20%–30%. Border entry screening detected at most 37% of international travel–related cases, with most (89%) persons identified as having fever at time of entry. These findings suggest that border entry screening was unlikely to have delayed spread in China by >4 days. PMID:22515989

  6. Lunar and Planetary Surface Dynamics and Early History

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2003-01-01

    This document, submitted as part of this proposal renewal represents the Final Report required by NASA for Grant NAGS-9442. It should be emphasized that, while this work statement in the original proposal outlined anticipated directions of our research, the specific activities we carried out during this period differed slightly from those proposed, capitalizing on new unexpected results and new advances in analytical capability. The thrust of all the work we completed were completely within the stated research goals of the proposal and significantly advanced our knowledge of planetary processes and our understanding of the early solar system. The following summary outlines our achievements in the different areas of research. These include: A) Early solar system processes and time scales using I-Xe chronometry; B) The Active Capture of Volatiles: A new mechanism for the capture of heavy noble gases, possible implications for phase Q and planetary heavy noble gases; C) Separation of Xe-L from Xe-H: Physically selective experiments; D) Abundances of Presolar grains; E) Studies of Neon and Helium from single interstellar SiC and graphite grains; F) Pre-compaction exposure of meteoritic grains and chondrules; G) Geochemically Measured Half-Lives: Double beta-decay of Te and Ba isotopes; H) Noble gases in stratospheric interplanetary dust particles; I) New Analytical Instrument.

  7. Early dynamics of white matter deficits in children developing dyslexia.

    PubMed

    Vanderauwera, Jolijn; Wouters, Jan; Vandermosten, Maaike; Ghesquière, Pol

    2017-10-01

    Neural anomalies have been demonstrated in dyslexia. Recent studies in pre-readers at risk for dyslexia and in pre-readers developing poor reading suggest that these anomalies might be a cause of their reading impairment. Our study goes one step further by exploring the neurodevelopmental trajectory of white matter anomalies in pre-readers with and without a familial risk for dyslexia (n=61) of whom a strictly selected sample develops dyslexia later on (n=15). We collected longitudinal diffusion MRI and behavioural data until grade 3. The results provide evidence that children with dyslexia exhibit pre-reading white matter anomalies in left and right long segment of the arcuate fasciculus (AF), with predictive power of the left segment above traditional cognitive measures and familial risk. Whereas white matter differences in the left AF seem most strongly related to the development of dyslexia, differences in the left IFOF and in the right AF seem driven by both familial risk and later reading ability. Moreover, differences in the left AF appeared to be dynamic. This study supports and expands recent insights into the neural basis of dyslexia, pointing towards pre-reading anomalies related to dyslexia, as well as underpinning the dynamic character of white matter. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. Dynamic quality of service model for improving performance of multimedia real-time transmission in industrial networks.

    PubMed

    Gopalakrishnan, Ravichandran C; Karunakaran, Manivannan

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, quality of service (QoS) is very popular in various research areas like distributed systems, multimedia real-time applications and networking. The requirements of these systems are to satisfy reliability, uptime, security constraints and throughput as well as application specific requirements. The real-time multimedia applications are commonly distributed over the network and meet various time constraints across networks without creating any intervention over control flows. In particular, video compressors make variable bit-rate streams that mismatch the constant-bit-rate channels typically provided by classical real-time protocols, severely reducing the efficiency of network utilization. Thus, it is necessary to enlarge the communication bandwidth to transfer the compressed multimedia streams using Flexible Time Triggered- Enhanced Switched Ethernet (FTT-ESE) protocol. FTT-ESE provides automation to calculate the compression level and change the bandwidth of the stream. This paper focuses on low-latency multimedia transmission over Ethernet with dynamic quality-of-service (QoS) management. This proposed framework deals with a dynamic QoS for multimedia transmission over Ethernet with FTT-ESE protocol. This paper also presents distinct QoS metrics based both on the image quality and network features. Some experiments with recorded and live video streams show the advantages of the proposed framework. To validate the solution we have designed and implemented a simulator based on the Matlab/Simulink, which is a tool to evaluate different network architecture using Simulink blocks.

  9. Dynamic Transmission Economic Evaluation of Infectious Disease Interventions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Literature Review.

    PubMed

    Drake, Tom L; Devine, Angela; Yeung, Shunmay; Day, Nicholas P J; White, Lisa J; Lubell, Yoel

    2016-02-01

    Economic evaluation using dynamic transmission models is important for capturing the indirect effects of infectious disease interventions. We examine the use of these methods in low- and middle-income countries, where infectious diseases constitute a major burden. This review is comprised of two parts: (1) a summary of dynamic transmission economic evaluations across all disease areas published between 2011 and mid-2014 and (2) an in-depth review of mosquito-borne disease studies focusing on health economic methods and reporting. Studies were identified through a systematic search of the MEDLINE database and supplemented by reference list screening. Fifty-seven studies were eligible for inclusion in the all-disease review. The most common subject disease was HIV/AIDS, followed by malaria. A diverse range of modelling methods, outcome metrics and sensitivity analyses were used, indicating little standardisation. Seventeen studies were included in the mosquito-borne disease review. With notable exceptions, most studies did not employ economic evaluation methods beyond calculating a cost-effectiveness ratio or net benefit. Many did not adhere to health care economic evaluations reporting guidelines, particularly with respect to full model reporting and uncertainty analysis. We present a summary of the state-of-the-art and offer recommendations for improved implementation and reporting of health economic methods in this crossover discipline. © 2016 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico using a dynamic dengue transmission model

    PubMed Central

    Shim, Eunha

    2017-01-01

    Background The incidence of dengue fever (DF) is steadily increasing in Mexico, burdening health systems with consequent morbidities and mortalities. On December 9th, 2015, Mexico became the first country for which the dengue vaccine was approved for use. In anticipation of a vaccine rollout, analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the dengue vaccination program that quantifies the dynamics of disease transmission is essential. Methods We developed a dynamic transmission model of dengue in Yucatán, Mexico and its proposed vaccination program to incorporate herd immunity into our analysis of cost-effectiveness analysis. Our model also incorporates important characteristics of dengue epidemiology, such as clinical cross-immunity and susceptibility enhancement upon secondary infection. Using our model, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of an imperfect dengue vaccine in Yucatán, Mexico. Conclusions Our study indicates that a dengue vaccination program would prevent 90% of cases of symptomatic DF incidence as well as 90% of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence and dengue-related deaths annually. We conclude that a dengue vaccine program in Yucatán, Mexico would be very cost-effective as long as the vaccination cost per individual is less than $140 and $214 from health care and societal perspectives, respectively. Furthermore, at an exemplary vaccination cost of $250 USD per individual on average, dengue vaccination is likely to be cost-effective 43% and 88% of the time from health care and societal perspectives, respectively. PMID:28380060

  11. Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico using a dynamic dengue transmission model.

    PubMed

    Shim, Eunha

    2017-01-01

    The incidence of dengue fever (DF) is steadily increasing in Mexico, burdening health systems with consequent morbidities and mortalities. On December 9th, 2015, Mexico became the first country for which the dengue vaccine was approved for use. In anticipation of a vaccine rollout, analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the dengue vaccination program that quantifies the dynamics of disease transmission is essential. We developed a dynamic transmission model of dengue in Yucatán, Mexico and its proposed vaccination program to incorporate herd immunity into our analysis of cost-effectiveness analysis. Our model also incorporates important characteristics of dengue epidemiology, such as clinical cross-immunity and susceptibility enhancement upon secondary infection. Using our model, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of an imperfect dengue vaccine in Yucatán, Mexico. Our study indicates that a dengue vaccination program would prevent 90% of cases of symptomatic DF incidence as well as 90% of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence and dengue-related deaths annually. We conclude that a dengue vaccine program in Yucatán, Mexico would be very cost-effective as long as the vaccination cost per individual is less than $140 and $214 from health care and societal perspectives, respectively. Furthermore, at an exemplary vaccination cost of $250 USD per individual on average, dengue vaccination is likely to be cost-effective 43% and 88% of the time from health care and societal perspectives, respectively.

  12. Population Dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus in Cystic Fibrosis Patients To Determine Transmission Events by Use of Whole-Genome Sequencing

    PubMed Central

    Hall, Barry G.

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Strict infection control practices have been implemented for health care visits by cystic fibrosis (CF) patients in an attempt to prevent transmission of important pathogens. This study used whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to determine strain relatedness and assess population dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus isolates from a cohort of CF patients as assessed by strain relatedness. A total of 311 S. aureus isolates were collected from respiratory cultures of 115 CF patients during a 22-month study period. Whole-genome sequencing was performed, and using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis, phylogenetic trees were assembled to determine relatedness between isolates. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) phenotypes were predicted using PPFS2 and compared to the observed phenotype. The accumulation of SNPs in multiple isolates obtained over time from the same patient was examined to determine if a genomic molecular clock could be calculated. Pairs of isolates with ≤71 SNP differences were considered to be the “same” strain. All of the “same” strain isolates were either from the same patient or siblings pairs. There were 47 examples of patients being superinfected with an unrelated strain. The predicted MRSA phenotype was accurate in all but three isolates. Mutation rates were unable to be determined because the branching order in the phylogenetic tree was inconsistent with the order of isolation. The observation that transmissions were identified between sibling patients shows that WGS is an effective tool for determining transmission between patients. The observation that transmission only occurred between siblings suggests that Staphylococcus aureus acquisition in our CF population occurred outside the hospital environment and indicates that current infection prevention efforts appear effective. PMID:28446577

  13. Emergence of airway smooth muscle mechanical behavior through dynamic reorganization of contractile units and force transmission pathways

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR) in asthma remains poorly understood despite significant research effort to elucidate relevant underlying mechanisms. In particular, a significant body of experimental work has focused on the effect of tidal fluctuations on airway smooth muscle (ASM) cells, tissues, lung slices, and whole airways to understand the bronchodilating effect of tidal breathing and deep inspirations. These studies have motivated conceptual models that involve dynamic reorganization of both cytoskeletal components as well as contractile machinery. In this article, a biophysical model of the whole ASM cell is presented that combines 1) crossbridge cycling between actin and myosin; 2) actin-myosin disconnectivity, under imposed length changes, to allow dynamic reconfiguration of “force transmission pathways”; and 3) dynamic parallel-to-serial transitions of contractile units within these pathways that occur through a length fluctuation. Results of this theoretical model suggest that behavior characteristic of experimentally observed force-length loops of maximally activated ASM strips can be explained by interactions among the three mechanisms. Crucially, both sustained disconnectivity and parallel-to-serial transitions are necessary to explain the nature of hysteresis and strain stiffening observed experimentally. The results provide strong evidence that dynamic rearrangement of contractile machinery is a likely mechanism underlying many of the phenomena observed at timescales associated with tidal breathing. This theoretical cell-level model captures many of the salient features of mechanical behavior observed experimentally and should provide a useful starting block for a bottom-up approach to understanding tissue-level mechanical behavior. PMID:24481961

  14. Calculational investigation of impact cratering dynamics - Early time material motions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomsen, J. M.; Austin, M. G.; Ruhl, S. F.; Schultz, P. H.; Orphal, D. L.

    1979-01-01

    Early time two-dimensional finite difference calculations of laboratory-scale hypervelocity (6 km/sec) impact of 0.3 g spherical 2024 aluminum projectiles into homogeneous plasticene clay targets were performed and the resulting material motions analyzed. Results show that the initial jetting of vaporized target material is qualitatively similar to experimental observation. The velocity flow field developed within the target is shown to have features quite similar to those found in calculations of near-surface explosion cratering. Specific application of Maxwell's analytic Z-Model (developed to interpret the flow fields of near-surface explosion cratering calculations), shows that this model can be used to describe the flow fields resulting from the impact cratering calculations, provided that the flow field center is located beneath the target surface, and that application of the model is made late enough in time that most of the projectile momentum has been dissipated.

  15. Early Spring Phytoplankton Dynamics in the Western Antarctic Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arrigo, Kevin R.; van Dijken, Gert L.; Alderkamp, Anne-Carlijn; Erickson, Zachary K.; Lewis, Kate M.; Lowry, Kate E.; Joy-Warren, Hannah L.; Middag, Rob; Nash-Arrigo, Janice E.; Selz, Virginia; van de Poll, Willem

    2017-12-01

    The Palmer Long-Term Ecological Research program has sampled waters of the western Antarctic Peninsula (wAP) annually each summer since 1990. However, information about the wAP prior to the peak of the phytoplankton bloom in January is sparse. Here we present results from a spring process cruise that sampled the wAP in the early stages of phytoplankton bloom development in 2014. Sea ice concentrations were high on the shelf relative to nonshelf waters, especially toward the south. Macronutrients were high and nonlimiting to phytoplankton growth in both shelf and nonshelf waters, while dissolved iron concentrations were high only on the shelf. Phytoplankton were in good physiological condition throughout the wAP, although biomass on the shelf was uniformly low, presumably because of heavy sea ice cover. In contrast, an early stage phytoplankton bloom was observed beneath variable sea ice cover just seaward of the shelf break. Chlorophyll a concentrations in the bloom reached 2 mg m-3 within a 100-150 km band between the SBACC and SACCF. The location of the bloom appeared to be controlled by a balance between enhanced vertical mixing at the position of the two fronts and increased stratification due to melting sea ice between them. Unlike summer, when diatoms overwhelmingly dominate the phytoplankton population of the wAP, the haptophyte Phaeocystis antarctica dominated in spring, although diatoms were common. These results suggest that factors controlling phytoplankton abundance and composition change seasonally and may differentially affect phytoplankton populations as environmental conditions within the wAP region continue to change.

  16. A transmission-grating-modulated pump-probe absorption spectroscopy and demonstration of diffusion dynamics of photoexcited carriers in bulk intrinsic GaAs film.

    PubMed

    Chen, Ke; Wang, Wenfang; Chen, Jianming; Wen, Jinhui; Lai, Tianshu

    2012-02-13

    A transmission-grating-modulated time-resolved pump-probe absorption spectroscopy is developed and formularized. The spectroscopy combines normal time-resolved pump-probe absorption spectroscopy with a binary transmission grating, is sensitive to the spatiotemporal evolution of photoinjected carriers, and has extensive applicability in the study of diffusion transport dynamics of photoinjected carriers. This spectroscopy has many advantages over reported optical methods to measure diffusion dynamics, such as simple experimental setup and operation, and high detection sensitivity. The measurement of diffusion dynamics is demonstrated on bulk intrinsic GaAs films. A carrier density dependence of carrier diffusion coefficient is obtained and agrees well with reported results.

  17. Causal Cognition, Force Dynamics and Early Hunting Technologies

    PubMed Central

    Gärdenfors, Peter; Lombard, Marlize

    2018-01-01

    With this contribution we analyze ancient hunting technologies as one way to explore the development of causal cognition in the hominin lineage. Building on earlier work, we separate seven grades of causal thinking. By looking at variations in force dynamics as a central element in causal cognition, we analyze the thinking required for different hunting technologies such as stabbing spears, throwing spears, launching atlatl darts, shooting arrows with a bow, and the use of poisoned arrows. Our interpretation demonstrates that there is an interplay between the extension of human body through technology and expanding our cognitive abilities to reason about causes. It adds content and dimension to the trend of including embodied cognition in evolutionary studies and in the interpretation of the archeological record. Our method could explain variation in technology sets between archaic and modern human groups. PMID:29483885

  18. A generating function approach to HIV transmission with dynamic contact rates

    SciTech Connect

    Romero-Severson, Ethan O.; Meadors, Grant D.; Volz, Erik M.

    The basic reproduction number, R 0, is often defined as the average number of infections generated by a newly infected individual in a fully susceptible population. The interpretation, meaning, and derivation of R 0 are controversial. However, in the context of mean field models, R 0 demarcates the epidemic threshold below which the infected population approaches zero in the limit of time. In this manner, R 0 has been proposed as a method for understanding the relative impact of public health interventions with respect to disease eliminations from a theoretical perspective. The use of R 0 is made more complexmore » by both the strong dependency of R 0 on the model form and the stochastic nature of transmission. A common assumption in models of HIV transmission that have closed form expressions for R 0 is that a single individual’s behavior is constant over time. For this research, we derive expressions for both R 0 and probability of an epidemic in a finite population under the assumption that people periodically change their sexual behavior over time. We illustrate the use of generating functions as a general framework to model the effects of potentially complex assumptions on the number of transmissions generated by a newly infected person in a susceptible population. In conclusion, we find that the relationship between the probability of an epidemic and R 0 is not straightforward, but, that as the rate of change in sexual behavior increases both R 0 and the probability of an epidemic also decrease.« less

  19. Genome-Based Infection Tracking Reveals Dynamics of Clostridium difficile Transmission and Disease Recurrence.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Nitin; Miyajima, Fabio; He, Miao; Roberts, Paul; Swale, Andrew; Ellison, Louise; Pickard, Derek; Smith, Godfrey; Molyneux, Rebecca; Dougan, Gordon; Parkhill, Julian; Wren, Brendan W; Parry, Christopher M; Pirmohamed, Munir; Lawley, Trevor D

    2016-03-15

    Accurate tracking of Clostridium difficile transmission within healthcare settings is key to its containment but is hindered by the lack of discriminatory power of standard genotyping methods. We describe a whole-genome phylogenetic-based method to track the transmission of individual clones in infected hospital patients from the epidemic C. difficile 027/ST1 lineage, and to distinguish between the 2 causes of recurrent disease, relapse (same strain), or reinfection (different strain). We monitored patients with C. difficile infection in a UK hospital over a 2-year period. We performed whole-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of 108 strains isolated from symptomatic patients. High-resolution phylogeny was integrated with in-hospital transfers and contact data to create an infection network linking individual patients and specific hospital wards. Epidemic C. difficile 027/ST1 caused the majority of infections during our sampling period. Integration of whole-genome single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) phylogenetic analysis, which accurately discriminated between 27 distinct SNP genotypes, with patient movement and contact data identified 32 plausible transmission events, including ward-based contamination (66%) or direct donor-recipient contact (34%). Highly contagious donors were identified who contributed to the persistence of clones within distinct hospital wards and the spread of clones between wards, especially in areas of intense turnover. Recurrent cases were identified between 4 and 26 weeks, highlighting the limitation of the standard <8-week cutoff used for patient diagnosis and management. Genome-based infection tracking to monitor the persistence and spread of C. difficile within healthcare facilities could inform infection control and patient management. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

  20. A generating function approach to HIV transmission with dynamic contact rates

    DOE PAGES

    Romero-Severson, Ethan O.; Meadors, Grant D.; Volz, Erik M.

    2014-04-24

    The basic reproduction number, R 0, is often defined as the average number of infections generated by a newly infected individual in a fully susceptible population. The interpretation, meaning, and derivation of R 0 are controversial. However, in the context of mean field models, R 0 demarcates the epidemic threshold below which the infected population approaches zero in the limit of time. In this manner, R 0 has been proposed as a method for understanding the relative impact of public health interventions with respect to disease eliminations from a theoretical perspective. The use of R 0 is made more complexmore » by both the strong dependency of R 0 on the model form and the stochastic nature of transmission. A common assumption in models of HIV transmission that have closed form expressions for R 0 is that a single individual’s behavior is constant over time. For this research, we derive expressions for both R 0 and probability of an epidemic in a finite population under the assumption that people periodically change their sexual behavior over time. We illustrate the use of generating functions as a general framework to model the effects of potentially complex assumptions on the number of transmissions generated by a newly infected person in a susceptible population. In conclusion, we find that the relationship between the probability of an epidemic and R 0 is not straightforward, but, that as the rate of change in sexual behavior increases both R 0 and the probability of an epidemic also decrease.« less

  1. Dynamical Analysis of an SEIT Epidemic Model with Application to Ebola Virus Transmission in Guinea.

    PubMed

    Li, Zhiming; Teng, Zhidong; Feng, Xiaomei; Li, Yingke; Zhang, Huiguo

    2015-01-01

    In order to investigate the transmission mechanism of the infectious individual with Ebola virus, we establish an SEIT (susceptible, exposed in the latent period, infectious, and treated/recovery) epidemic model. The basic reproduction number is defined. The mathematical analysis on the existence and stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is given. As the applications of the model, we use the recognized infectious and death cases in Guinea to estimate parameters of the model by the least square method. With suitable parameter values, we obtain the estimated value of the basic reproduction number and analyze the sensitivity and uncertainty property by partial rank correlation coefficients.

  2. Fast data transmission in dynamic data acquisition system for plasma diagnostics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byszuk, Adrian; Poźniak, Krzysztof; Zabołotny, Wojciech M.; Kasprowicz, Grzegorz; Wojeński, Andrzej; Cieszewski, Radosław; Juszczyk, Bartłomiej; Kolasiński, Piotr; Zienkiewicz, Paweł; Chernyshova, Maryna; Czarski, Tomasz

    2014-11-01

    This paper describes architecture of a new data acquisition system (DAQ) targeted mainly at plasma diagnostic experiments. Modular architecture, in combination with selected hardware components, allows for straightforward reconfiguration of the whole system, both offline and online. Main emphasis will be put into the implementation of data transmission subsystem in said system. One of the biggest advantages of described system is modular architecture with well defined boundaries between main components: analog frontend (AFE), digital backplane and acquisition/control software. Usage of a FPGA chips allows for a high flexibility in design of analog frontends, including ADC <--> FPGA interface. Data transmission between backplane boards and user software was accomplished with the use of industry-standard PCI Express (PCIe) technology. PCIe implementation includes both FPGA firmware and Linux device driver. High flexibility of PCIe connections was accomplished due to use of configurable PCIe switch. Whenever it's possible, described DAQ system tries to make use of standard off-the-shelf (OTF) components, including typical x86 CPU & motherboard (acting as PCIe controller) and cabling.

  3. Estimation of the transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus within a swine house.

    PubMed

    Nielsen, J P; Larsen, T S; Halasa, T; Christiansen, L E

    2017-10-01

    The spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV) threatens to reach further parts of Europe. In countries with a large swine production, an outbreak of ASF may result in devastating economic consequences for the swine industry. Simulation models can assist decision makers setting up contingency plans. This creates a need for estimation of parameters. This study presents a new analysis of a previously published study. A full likelihood framework is presented including the impact of model assumptions on the estimated transmission parameters. As animals were only tested every other day, an interpretation was introduced to cover the weighted infectiousness on unobserved days for the individual animals (WIU). Based on our model and the set of assumptions, the within- and between-pen transmission parameters were estimated to β w = 1·05 (95% CI 0·62-1·72), β b = 0·46 (95% CI 0·17-1·00), respectively, and the WIU = 1·00 (95% CI 0-1). Furthermore, we simulated the spread of ASFV within a pig house using a modified SEIR-model to establish the time from infection of one animal until ASFV is detected in the herd. Based on a chosen detection limit of 2·55% equivalent to 10 dead pigs out of 360, the disease would be detected 13-19 days after introduction.

  4. Communication Range Dynamics and Performance Analysis for a Self-Adaptive Transmission Power Controller †

    PubMed Central

    Lucas Martínez, Néstor; Martínez Ortega, José-Fernán; Hernández Díaz, Vicente; del Toro Matamoros, Raúl M.

    2016-01-01

    The deployment of the nodes in a Wireless Sensor and Actuator Network (WSAN) is typically restricted by the sensing and acting coverage. This implies that the locations of the nodes may be, and usually are, not optimal from the point of view of the radio communication. Additionally, when the transmission power is tuned for those locations, there are other unpredictable factors that can cause connectivity failures, like interferences, signal fading due to passing objects and, of course, radio irregularities. A control-based self-adaptive system is a typical solution to improve the energy consumption while keeping good connectivity. In this paper, we explore how the communication range for each node evolves along the iterations of an energy saving self-adaptive transmission power controller when using different parameter sets in an outdoor scenario, providing a WSAN that automatically adapts to surrounding changes keeping good connectivity. The results obtained in this paper show how the parameters with the best performance keep a k-connected network, where k is in the range of the desired node degree plus or minus a specified tolerance value. PMID:27187397

  5. Communication Range Dynamics and Performance Analysis for a Self-Adaptive Transmission Power Controller.

    PubMed

    Lucas Martínez, Néstor; Martínez Ortega, José-Fernán; Hernández Díaz, Vicente; Del Toro Matamoros, Raúl M

    2016-05-12

    The deployment of the nodes in a Wireless Sensor and Actuator Network (WSAN) is typically restricted by the sensing and acting coverage. This implies that the locations of the nodes may be, and usually are, not optimal from the point of view of the radio communication. Additionally, when the transmission power is tuned for those locations, there are other unpredictable factors that can cause connectivity failures, like interferences, signal fading due to passing objects and, of course, radio irregularities. A control-based self-adaptive system is a typical solution to improve the energy consumption while keeping good connectivity. In this paper, we explore how the communication range for each node evolves along the iterations of an energy saving self-adaptive transmission power controller when using different parameter sets in an outdoor scenario, providing a WSAN that automatically adapts to surrounding changes keeping good connectivity. The results obtained in this paper show how the parameters with the best performance keep a k-connected network, where k is in the range of the desired node degree plus or minus a specified tolerance value.

  6. The integrin expression profile modulates orientation and dynamics of force transmission at cell-matrix adhesions.

    PubMed

    Balcioglu, Hayri E; van Hoorn, Hedde; Donato, Dominique M; Schmidt, Thomas; Danen, Erik H J

    2015-04-01

    Integrin adhesion receptors connect the extracellular matrix (ECM) to the cytoskeleton and serve as bidirectional mechanotransducers. During development, angiogenesis, wound healing and cancer progression, the relative abundance of fibronectin receptors, including integrins α5β1 and αvβ3, changes, thus altering the integrin composition of cell-matrix adhesions. Here, we show that enhanced αvβ3 expression can fully compensate for loss of α5β1 and other β1 integrins to support outside-in and inside-out force transmission. α5β1 and αvβ3 each mediate actin cytoskeletal remodeling in response to stiffening or cyclic stretching of the ECM. Likewise, α5β1 and αvβ3 support cellular traction forces of comparable magnitudes and similarly increase these forces in response to ECM stiffening. However, cells using αvβ3 respond to lower stiffness ranges, reorganize their actin cytoskeleton more substantially in response to stretch, and show more randomly oriented traction forces. Centripetal traction force orientation requires long stress fibers that are formed through the action of Rho kinase (ROCK) and myosin II, and that are supported by α5β1. Thus, altering the relative abundance of fibronectin-binding integrins in cell-matrix adhesions affects the spatiotemporal organization of force transmission. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  7. The transmissibility estimation of influenza with early stage data of small-scale outbreaks in Changsha, China, 2005-2013.

    PubMed

    Chen, T M; Chen, Q P; Liu, R C; Szot, A; Chen, S L; Zhao, J; Zhou, S S

    2017-02-01

    Hundreds of small-scale influenza outbreaks in schools are reported in mainland China every year, leading to a heavy disease burden which seriously impacts the operation of affected schools. Knowing the transmissibility of each outbreak in the early stage has become a major concern for public health policy-makers and primary healthcare providers. In this study, we collected all the small-scale outbreaks in Changsha (a large city in south central China with ~7·04 million population) from January 2005 to December 2013. Four simple and popularly used models were employed to calculate the reproduction number (R) of these outbreaks. Given that the duration of a generation interval Tc = 2·7 and the standard deviation (s.d.) σ = 1·1, the mean R estimated by an epidemic model, normal distribution and delta distribution were 2·51 (s.d. = 0·73), 4·11 (s.d. = 2·20) and 5·88 (s.d. = 5·00), respectively. When Tc = 2·9 and σ = 1·4, the mean R estimated by the three models were 2·62 (s.d. = 0·78), 4·72 (s.d. = 2·82) and 6·86 (s.d. = 6·34), respectively. The mean R estimated by gamma distribution was 4·32 (s.d. = 2·47). We found that the values of R in small-scale outbreaks in schools were higher than in large-scale outbreaks in a neighbourhood, city or province. Normal distribution, delta distribution, and gamma distribution models seem to more easily overestimate the R of influenza outbreaks compared to the epidemic model.

  8. Spatiotemporal model of barley and cereal yellow dwarf virus transmission dynamics with seasonality and plant competition

    Treesearch

    S.M. Moore; C.A. Manore; V.A. Bokil; E.T. Borer; P.R. Hosseini

    2011-01-01

    Many generalist pathogens are influenced by the spatial distributions and relative abundances of susceptible host species. The spatial structure of host populations can influence patterns of infection incidence (or disease outbreaks), and the effects of a generalist pathogen on host community dynamics in a spatially heterogeneous community may differ from predictions...

  9. Uterine and fetal dynamics during early pregnancy in mares.

    PubMed

    Griffin, P G; Ginther, O J

    1991-02-01

    Fetal activity and mobility and changes in diameter of the allantoic fluid compartment in the uterine horns were studied in mares between days 69 and 81 of pregnancy by use of transrectal ultrasonography (n = 12) and transcervical videoendoscopy (n = 8). The insertion tube of the videoendoscope was positioned within the allantoic sac to permit viewing of the fetus and entrance to each uterine horn. Each uterine horn was divided ultrasonographically into 3 segments of equal length, and the horns were designated on the basis of side of umbilical attachment (cord vs noncord horns). The diameter of the allantoic fluid compartment in the cornual segments increased (P less than 0.05) over the cranial (18.6 +/- 1.9 mm), middle (35.6 +/- 2.9 mm), and caudal (51.7 +/- 4.4 mm) segments, but differences between cord and noncord horns were not evident. Dynamic changes in diameter of the allantoic fluid compartment in cornual segments (ultrasonography) and at the entrance to each uterine horn (videoendoscopy) were detected (no significant difference between methods). During continuous videoendoscopic viewing (17 to 60 min/mare), extreme changes in allantoic fluid compartment diameter (76 to 100% of maximum to 0 to 25% of maximum or vice-versa) occurred an equivalent of 2.6 times/h/horn entrance; changes had an average duration of 3.4 minutes. A change from 100% (maximal diameter) to 0% (no visible lumen) or vice-versa occurred an equivalent of 1.3 times/h/horn entrance. Sometimes the uterine wall was so closely constricted++ around the fetal-amniotic unit that no intervening allantoic fluid was ultrasonographically detectable whereas at other times the uterus in the same location was widely dilated.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  10. Comment on "Dynamics and properties of waves in a modified Noguchi electrical transmission line"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenmogne, Fabien; Yemélé, David; Marquié, Patrick

    2016-09-01

    A recent paper [Phys. Rev. E 91, 022925 (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevE.91.022925] presents the derivation of the nonlinear equation modeling envelope waves in a specific case of band passed filter discrete nonlinear electrical transmission line (NLTL), called "A modified Noguchi electrical transmission line" according to the authors. Using the reductive perturbation approach in the semidiscrete approximation, they showed that the modulated waves propagating in this NLTL are described by the ordinary nonlinear Schrödinger (NLS) equation. On the basis of their results, the authors claimed that all previous works on the band passed filter NLTL, which considered the vanishing of the dc component of the signal voltage, are incorrect, and this dc term is nonzero. As a consequence, the dispersion and nonlinearity coefficients of the NLS equation are strongly different from those usually obtained, and they found, according to the sign of the product P Q , the existence of one more region (compared to the work of Marquié et al. [Phys. Rev. E 49, 828 (1994)], 10.1103/PhysRevE.49.828) in the dispersion curve that allows the motion of envelope solitons of higher frequency in the system. In this Comment we provide sufficient theoretical and numerical evidence showing that the evidence obtained by the authors otherwise is due to certain terms missed in their mathematical developments when they derived the NLS equation. Our results also suggest that the previous work of Marquié and co-workers correctly predict the fact that the dc term of the signal voltage does not exist and there exist only two regions in the dispersion curve according to the sign of the product P Q .

  11. Mamakind or Papakind? [Mom's Child or Dad's Child]: Parent-Specific Patterns in Early Adolescents' Intergenerational Academic Value Transmission

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gniewosz, Burkhard; Noack, Peter

    2012-01-01

    The present study investigates the intergenerational transmission of the valuing of math within family. We tested if there are groups of students showing differential intergenerational transmission patterns. Based on a two-wave longitudinal sample of 1198 German fifth graders, their mothers (N = 874), and fathers (N = 733), structural equation…

  12. Transmission of whole body vibration to the lower body in static and dynamic half-squat exercises.

    PubMed

    Munera, Marcela; Bertucci, William; Duc, Sebastien; Chiementin, Xavier

    2016-11-01

    Whole body vibration (WBV) is used as a training method but its physical risk is not yet clear. Hence, the aim of this study is to assess the exposure to WBV by a measure of acceleration at the lower limb under dynamic and static postural conditions. The hypothesis of this paper is that this assessment is influenced by the frequency, position, and movement of the body. Fifteen healthy males are exposed to vertical sinusoidal vibration at different frequencies (20-60 Hz), while adopting three different static postures (knee extension angle: 180°, 120° and 90°) or performing a dynamic half-squat exercise. Accelerations at input source and at three joints of the lower limb (ankle, knee, and hip) are measured using skin-mounted accelerometers. Acceleration values (g) in static conditions show a decrease in the vibrational dose when it is measured at a more proximal location in the lower extremity. The results of the performed statistical test show statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) in the transmissibility values caused by the frequency, the position, and to the presence of the movement and its direction at the different conditions. The results confirm the initial hypothesis and justify the importance of a vibration assessment in dynamic conditions.

  13. Evolutionary suicide through a non-catastrophic bifurcation: adaptive dynamics of pathogens with frequency-dependent transmission.

    PubMed

    Boldin, Barbara; Kisdi, Éva

    2016-03-01

    Evolutionary suicide is a riveting phenomenon in which adaptive evolution drives a viable population to extinction. Gyllenberg and Parvinen (Bull Math Biol 63(5):981-993, 2001) showed that, in a wide class of deterministic population models, a discontinuous transition to extinction is a necessary condition for evolutionary suicide. An implicit assumption of their proof is that the invasion fitness of a rare strategy is well-defined also in the extinction state of the population. Epidemic models with frequency-dependent incidence, which are often used to model the spread of sexually transmitted infections or the dynamics of infectious diseases within herds, violate this assumption. In these models, evolutionary suicide can occur through a non-catastrophic bifurcation whereby pathogen adaptation leads to a continuous decline of host (and consequently pathogen) population size to zero. Evolutionary suicide of pathogens with frequency-dependent transmission can occur in two ways, with pathogen strains evolving either higher or lower virulence.

  14. Genetic diversity, transmission dynamics, and drug resistance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Luanda, Angola.

    PubMed

    Perdigão, João; Clemente, Sofia; Ramos, Jorge; Masakidi, Pedro; Machado, Diana; Silva, Carla; Couto, Isabel; Viveiros, Miguel; Taveira, Nuno; Portugal, Isabel

    2016-12-01

    evidence for cluster-based transmission with a high predominance of LAM strains, with differential geographic dispersion. The moderate rate of MDR-TB found in this sample has major public health implications and highlights the need for further studies specifically focused on MDR-TB transmission. Copyright © 2016.

  15. Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills: An Effective Tool to Assess Adult Literacy Students?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Binder, Katherine S.; Snyder, Melissa A.; Ardoin, Scott P.; Morris, Robin K.

    2011-01-01

    This study examined the reliability and validity of administering Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS) to adult basic education (ABE) students. Ninety ABE participants were administered DIBELS measures, the Woodcock-Johnson III Broad Reading (WJ III BR) measures, and four orthographic ability tests. Since ABE students are a…

  16. Early Maternal Employment and Children's Vocabulary and Inductive Reasoning Ability: A Dynamic Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kühhirt, Michael; Klein, Markus

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between early maternal employment history and children's vocabulary and inductive reasoning ability at age 5, drawing on longitudinal information on 2,200 children from the Growing Up in Scotland data. Prior research rarely addresses dynamics in maternal employment and the methodological ramifications of…

  17. The Utility of the Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS) in Predicting Reading Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Echols, Julie M. Young

    2010-01-01

    Reading proficiency is the goal of many local and national reading initiatives. A key component of these initiatives is accurate and reliable reading assessment. In this high-stakes testing arena, the Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS) has emerged as a preferred measure for identification of students at risk for reading…

  18. Dynamics of African swine fever virus shedding and excretion in domestic pigs infected by intramuscular inoculation and contact transmission.

    PubMed

    Guinat, Claire; Reis, Ana Luisa; Netherton, Christopher L; Goatley, Lynnette; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Dixon, Linda

    2014-09-26

    African swine fever virus (ASFV) is a highly virulent swine pathogen that has spread across Eastern Europe since 2007 and for which there is no effective vaccine or treatment available. The dynamics of shedding and excretion is not well known for this currently circulating ASFV strain. Therefore, susceptible pigs were exposed to pigs intramuscularly infected with the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain to measure those dynamics through within- and between-pen transmission scenarios. Blood, oral, nasal and rectal fluid samples were tested for the presence of ASFV by virus titration (VT) and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Serum was tested for the presence of ASFV-specific antibodies. Both intramuscular inoculation and contact transmission resulted in development of acute disease in all pigs although the experiments indicated that the pathogenesis of the disease might be different, depending on the route of infection. Infectious ASFV was first isolated in blood among the inoculated pigs by day 3, and then chronologically among the direct and indirect contact pigs, by day 10 and 13, respectively. Close to the onset of clinical signs, higher ASFV titres were found in blood compared with nasal and rectal fluid samples among all pigs. No infectious ASFV was isolated in oral fluid samples although ASFV genome copies were detected. Only one animal developed antibodies starting after 12 days post-inoculation. The results provide quantitative data on shedding and excretion of the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain among domestic pigs and suggest a limited potential of this isolate to cause persistent infection.

  19. Randomized trial of vitamin supplements in relation to transmission of HIV-1 through breastfeeding and early child mortality.

    PubMed

    Fawzi, Wafaie W; Msamanga, Gernard I; Hunter, David; Renjifo, Boris; Antelman, Gretchen; Bang, Heejung; Manji, Karim; Kapiga, Saidi; Mwakagile, Davis; Essex, Max; Spiegelman, Donna

    2002-09-27

    HIV-1 transmission through breastfeeding is a global problem and has been associated with poor maternal micronutrient status. A total of 1078 HIV-infected pregnant women from Tanzania were randomly assigned to vitamin A or multivitamins excluding A from approximately 20 weeks' gestation and throughout lactation. Multivitamins excluding A had no effect on the total risk of HIV-1 transmission (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.82-1.32, P= 0.76). Vitamin A increased the risk of transmission (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.09-1.76, P = 0.009). Multivitamins were associated with non-statistically significant reductions in transmission through breastfeeding, and mortality by 24 months among those alive and not infected at 6 weeks. Multivitamins significantly reduced breastfeeding transmission in infants of mothers with low baseline lymphocyte counts (RR 0.37; 95% CI 0.16-0.85, P = 0.02) compared with infants of mothers with higher counts (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.68-1.45, P = 0.97; -for-interaction 0.03). Multivitamins also protected against transmission among mothers with a high erythrocyte sedimentation rate (P-for-interaction 0.06), low hemoglobin (P-for-interaction 0.06), and low birthweight babies (P-for-interaction 0.04). Multivitamins reduced death and prolonged HIV-free survival significantly among children born to women with low maternal immunological or nutritional status. Vitamin A alone increased breastfeeding transmission but had no effect on mortality by 24 months. Vitamin A increased the risk of HIV-1 transmission. Multivitamin (B, C, and E) supplementation of breastfeeding mothers reduced child mortality and HIV-1 transmission through breastfeeding among immunologically and nutritionally compromised women. The provision of these supplements to HIV-infected lactating women should be considered.

  20. Electromagnetic interference-aware transmission scheduling and power control for dynamic wireless access in hospital environments.

    PubMed

    Phunchongharn, Phond; Hossain, Ekram; Camorlinga, Sergio

    2011-11-01

    We study the multiple access problem for e-Health applications (referred to as secondary users) coexisting with medical devices (referred to as primary or protected users) in a hospital environment. In particular, we focus on transmission scheduling and power control of secondary users in multiple spatial reuse time-division multiple access (STDMA) networks. The objective is to maximize the spectrum utilization of secondary users and minimize their power consumption subject to the electromagnetic interference (EMI) constraints for active and passive medical devices and minimum throughput guarantee for secondary users. The multiple access problem is formulated as a dual objective optimization problem which is shown to be NP-complete. We propose a joint scheduling and power control algorithm based on a greedy approach to solve the problem with much lower computational complexity. To this end, an enhanced greedy algorithm is proposed to improve the performance of the greedy algorithm by finding the optimal sequence of secondary users for scheduling. Using extensive simulations, the tradeoff in performance in terms of spectrum utilization, energy consumption, and computational complexity is evaluated for both the algorithms.

  1. Lithium electrodeposition dynamics in aprotic electrolyte observed in situ via transmission electron microscopy

    DOE PAGES

    Leenheer, Andrew Jay; Jungjohann, Katherine Leigh; Zavadil, Kevin Robert; ...

    2015-03-18

    Electrodeposited metallic lithium is an ideal negative battery electrode, but nonuniform microstructure evolution during cycling leads to degradation and safety issues. A better understanding of the Li plating and stripping processes is needed to enable practical Li-metal batteries. Here we use a custom microfabricated, sealed liquid cell for in situ scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) to image the first few cycles of lithium electrodeposition/dissolution in liquid aprotic electrolyte at submicron resolution. Cycling at current densities from 1 to 25 mA/cm 2 leads to variations in grain structure, with higher current densities giving a more needle-like, higher surface area deposit. Themore » effect of the electron beam was explored, and it was found that, even with minimal beam exposure, beam-induced surface film formation could alter the Li microstructure. The electrochemical dissolution was seen to initiate from isolated points on grains rather than uniformly across the Li surface, due to the stabilizing solid electrolyte interphase surface film. As a result, we discuss the implications for operando STEM liquid-cell imaging and Li-battery applications.« less

  2. Molecular Epidemiology and Transmission Dynamics of Recent and Long-Term HIV-1 Infections in Rural Western Kenya.

    PubMed

    Zeh, Clement; Inzaule, Seth C; Ondoa, Pascale; Nafisa, Lillian G; Kasembeli, Alex; Otieno, Fredrick; Vandenhoudt, Hilde; Amornkul, Pauli N; Mills, Lisa A; Nkengasong, John N

    2016-01-01

    To identify unique characteristics of recent versus established HIV infections and describe sexual transmission networks, we characterized circulating HIV-1 strains from two randomly selected populations of ART-naïve participants in rural western Kenya. Recent HIV infections were identified by the HIV-1 subtype B, E and D, immunoglobulin G capture immunoassay (IgG BED-CEIA) and BioRad avidity assays. Genotypic and phylogenetic analyses were performed on the pol gene to identify transmitted drug resistance (TDR) mutations, characterize HIV subtypes and potential transmission clusters. Factors associated with recent infection and clustering were assessed by logistic regression. Of the 320 specimens, 40 (12.5%) were concordantly identified by the two assays as recent infections. Factors independently associated with being recently infected were age ≤19 years (P = 0.001) and history of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the past six months (P = 0.004). HIV subtype distribution differed in recently versus chronically infected participants, with subtype A observed among 53% recent vs. 68% chronic infections (p = 0.04) and subtype D among 26% recent vs. 12% chronic infections (p = 0.012). Overall, the prevalence of primary drug resistance was 1.16%. Of the 258 sequences, 11.2% were in monophyletic clusters of between 2-4 individuals. In multivariate analysis factors associated with clustering included having recent HIV infection P = 0.043 and being from Gem region P = 0.002. Recent HIV-1 infection was more frequent among 13-19 year olds compared with older age groups, underscoring the ongoing risk and susceptibility of younger persons for acquiring HIV infection. Our findings also provide evidence of sexual networks. The association of recent infections with clustering suggests that early infections may be contributing significant proportions of onward transmission highlighting the need for early diagnosis and treatment as prevention for ongoing prevention

  3. Molecular Epidemiology and Transmission Dynamics of Recent and Long-Term HIV-1 Infections in Rural Western Kenya

    PubMed Central

    Zeh, Clement; Inzaule, Seth C.; Ondoa, Pascale; Nafisa, Lillian G.; Kasembeli, Alex; Otieno, Fredrick; Vandenhoudt, Hilde; Amornkul, Pauli N.; Mills, Lisa A.; Nkengasong, John N.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To identify unique characteristics of recent versus established HIV infections and describe sexual transmission networks, we characterized circulating HIV-1 strains from two randomly selected populations of ART-naïve participants in rural western Kenya. Methods Recent HIV infections were identified by the HIV-1 subtype B, E and D, immunoglobulin G capture immunoassay (IgG BED-CEIA) and BioRad avidity assays. Genotypic and phylogenetic analyses were performed on the pol gene to identify transmitted drug resistance (TDR) mutations, characterize HIV subtypes and potential transmission clusters. Factors associated with recent infection and clustering were assessed by logistic regression. Results Of the 320 specimens, 40 (12.5%) were concordantly identified by the two assays as recent infections. Factors independently associated with being recently infected were age ≤19 years (P = 0.001) and history of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the past six months (P = 0.004). HIV subtype distribution differed in recently versus chronically infected participants, with subtype A observed among 53% recent vs. 68% chronic infections (p = 0.04) and subtype D among 26% recent vs. 12% chronic infections (p = 0.012). Overall, the prevalence of primary drug resistance was 1.16%. Of the 258 sequences, 11.2% were in monophyletic clusters of between 2–4 individuals. In multivariate analysis factors associated with clustering included having recent HIV infection P = 0.043 and being from Gem region P = 0.002. Conclusions Recent HIV-1 infection was more frequent among 13–19 year olds compared with older age groups, underscoring the ongoing risk and susceptibility of younger persons for acquiring HIV infection. Our findings also provide evidence of sexual networks. The association of recent infections with clustering suggests that early infections may be contributing significant proportions of onward transmission highlighting the need for early diagnosis and treatment

  4. Spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV-1 transmission in France (1999-2014) and impact of targeted prevention strategies.

    PubMed

    Chaillon, Antoine; Essat, Asma; Frange, Pierre; Smith, Davey M; Delaugerre, Constance; Barin, Francis; Ghosn, Jade; Pialoux, Gilles; Robineau, Olivier; Rouzioux, Christine; Goujard, Cécile; Meyer, Laurence; Chaix, Marie-Laure

    2017-02-21

    Characterizing HIV-1 transmission networks can be important in understanding the evolutionary patterns and geospatial spread of the epidemic. We reconstructed the broad molecular epidemiology of HIV from individuals with primary HIV-1 infection (PHI) enrolled in France in the ANRS PRIMO C06 cohort over 15 years. Sociodemographic, geographic, clinical, biological and pol sequence data from 1356 patients were collected between 1999 and 2014. Network analysis was performed to infer genetic relationships, i.e. clusters of transmission, between HIV-1 sequences. Bayesian coalescent-based methods were used to examine the temporal and spatial dynamics of identified clusters from different regions in France. We also evaluated the use of network information to target prevention efforts. Participants were mostly Caucasian (85.9%) and men (86.7%) who reported sex with men (MSM, 71.4%). Overall, 387 individuals (28.5%) were involved in clusters: 156 patients (11.5%) in 78 dyads and 231 participants (17%) in 42 larger clusters (median size: 4, range 3-41). Compared to individuals with single PHI (n = 969), those in clusters were more frequently men (95.9 vs 83%, p < 0.01), MSM (85.8 vs 65.6%, p < 0.01) and infected with CRF02_AG (20.4 vs 13.4%, p < 0.01). Reconstruction of viral migrations across time suggests that Paris area was the major hub of dissemination of both subtype B and CRF02_AG epidemics. By targeting clustering individuals belonging to the identified active transmission network before 2010, 60 of the 143 onward transmissions could have been prevented. These analyses support the hypothesis of a recent and rapid rise of CRF02_AG within the French HIV-1 epidemic among MSM. Combined with a short turnaround time for sample processing, targeting prevention efforts based on phylogenetic monitoring may be an efficient way to deliver prevention interventions but would require near real time targeted interventions on the identified index cases and their partners.

  5. Somatic mutations reveal asymmetric cellular dynamics in the early human embryo

    DOE PAGES

    Ju, Young Seok; Martincorena, Inigo; Gerstung, Moritz; ...

    2017-03-22

    Somatic cells acquire mutations throughout the course of an individual’s life. Mutations occurring early in embryogenesis are often present in a substantial proportion of, but not all, cells in postnatal humans and thus have particular characteristics and effects. Depending on their location in the genome and the proportion of cells they are present in, these mosaic mutations can cause a wide range of genetic disease syndromes and predispose carriers to cancer. They have a high chance of being transmitted to offspring as de novo germline mutations and, in principle, can provide insights into early human embryonic cell lineages and theirmore » contributions to adult tissues. Although it is known that gross chromosomal abnormalities are remarkably common in early human embryos, our understanding of early embryonic somatic mutations is very limited. Here we use whole-genome sequences of normal blood from 241 adults to identify 163 early embryonic mutations. We estimate that approximately three base substitution mutations occur per cell per cell-doubling event in early human embryogenesis and these are mainly attributable to two known mutational signatures. We used the mutations to reconstruct developmental lineages of adult cells and demonstrate that the two daughter cells of many early embryonic cell-doubling events contribute asymmetrically to adult blood at an approximately 2:1 ratio. As a result, this study therefore provides insights into the mutation rates, mutational processes and developmental outcomes of cell dynamics that operate during early human embryogenesis.« less

  6. Somatic mutations reveal asymmetric cellular dynamics in the early human embryo

    SciTech Connect

    Ju, Young Seok; Martincorena, Inigo; Gerstung, Moritz

    Somatic cells acquire mutations throughout the course of an individual’s life. Mutations occurring early in embryogenesis are often present in a substantial proportion of, but not all, cells in postnatal humans and thus have particular characteristics and effects. Depending on their location in the genome and the proportion of cells they are present in, these mosaic mutations can cause a wide range of genetic disease syndromes and predispose carriers to cancer. They have a high chance of being transmitted to offspring as de novo germline mutations and, in principle, can provide insights into early human embryonic cell lineages and theirmore » contributions to adult tissues. Although it is known that gross chromosomal abnormalities are remarkably common in early human embryos, our understanding of early embryonic somatic mutations is very limited. Here we use whole-genome sequences of normal blood from 241 adults to identify 163 early embryonic mutations. We estimate that approximately three base substitution mutations occur per cell per cell-doubling event in early human embryogenesis and these are mainly attributable to two known mutational signatures. We used the mutations to reconstruct developmental lineages of adult cells and demonstrate that the two daughter cells of many early embryonic cell-doubling events contribute asymmetrically to adult blood at an approximately 2:1 ratio. As a result, this study therefore provides insights into the mutation rates, mutational processes and developmental outcomes of cell dynamics that operate during early human embryogenesis.« less

  7. Dynamics of the Solar Wind Electromagnetic Energy Transmission Into Magnetosphere during Large Geomagnetic Storms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsova, Tamara; Laptukhov, Alexej; Petrov, Valery

    Causes of the geomagnetic activity (GA) in the report are divided into temporal changes of the solar wind parameters and the changes of the geomagnetic moment orientation relative directions of the solar wind electric and magnetic fields. Based on our previous study we concluded that a reconnection based on determining role of mutual orientation of the solar wind electric field and geomagnetic moment taking into account effects of the Earth's orbital and daily motions is the most effective compared with existing mechanisms. At present a reconnection as paradigma that has applications in broad fields of physics needs analysis of experimental facts to be developed. In terms of reconnection it is important not only mutual orientation of vectors describing physics of interaction region but and reconnection rate which depends from rate of energy flux to those regions where the reconnection is permitted. Applied to magnetosphere these regions first of all are dayside magnetopause and polar caps. Influence of rate of the energy flux to the lobe magnetopause (based on calculations of the Poyting electromagnetic flux component controlling the reconnection rate along the solar wind velocity Pv) on planetary GA (Dst, Kp indices) is investigated at different phases of geomagnetic storms. We study also the rate of energy flux to the polar caps during storms (based on calculations of the Poyting flux vector component along the geomagnetic moment Pm) and its influence on magnetic activity in the polar ionosphere: at the auroral zone (AU,AL indices). Results allow to evaluate contributions of high and low latitude sources of electromagnetic energy to the storm development and also to clear mechanism of the electromagnetic energy transmission from the solar wind to the magnetosphere. We evaluate too power of the solar wind electromagnetic energy during well-known large storms and compare result with power of the energy sources of other geophysical processes (atmosphere, ocean

  8. Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modeling analysis

    PubMed Central

    Lewnard, Joseph A.; Ndeffo Mbah, Martial L.; Alfaro-Murillo, Jorge A.; Altice, Frederick L.; Bawo, Luke; Nyenswah, Tolbert G.; Galvani, Alison P.

    2014-01-01

    Background A substantial scale-up in public health response is needed to control the unprecedented Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa. Current international commitments seek to expand intervention capacity in three areas: new EVD Treatment Centers (ETCs); case ascertainment through contact tracing; and household protective kit allocation. Methods We developed a transmission model of Ebola virus that we fitted to reported EVD cases and deaths in Montserrado County, Liberia. We used this model to evaluate effectiveness of expanding ETCs, improving case ascertainment, and allocating protective kits for controlling the outbreak in Montserrado. Findings We estimated the basic reproductive number for EVD in Montserrado to be 2·49 [2·38–2·60]. We expect that allocating 4,800 additional ETC beds and increasing case ascertainment fivefold in November can avert 77312 [68400–85870] cases relative to the status quo by 15 December. Complementing these measures with protective kit allocation increases the expectation as high as 97940 [90096–105606] cases. If deployed by 15 October, equivalent interventions would have been expected to avert 137432 [129736–145874] cases. If delayed to 15 November, we expect the interventions will at best avert 53957 [49963–60490] cases. Interpretation The number of ETC beds needed to effectively control EVD in Montserrado substantially exceeds the total pledged by the United States to West Africa. Accelerated case ascertainment is required to maximize effectiveness of expanding ETC capacity. Distributing protective kits can further augment EVD prevention. Our findings highlight the rapidly closing window of opportunity for controlling the outbreak and averting a catastrophic toll of EVD cases and deaths. Funding NIH: U01-GM087719, U01-GM105627, K24-DA017072 PMID:25455986

  9. Early Spatial and Temporal Events of Human T-Lymphotropic Virus Type 1 Spread following Blood-Borne Transmission in a Rabbit Model of Infection ▿

    PubMed Central

    Haynes, Rashade A. H.; Zimmerman, Bevin; Millward, Laurie; Ware, Evan; Premanandan, Christopher; Yu, Lianbo; Phipps, Andrew J.; Lairmore, Michael D.

    2010-01-01

    Human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) infection causes adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma (ATL) and is associated with a variety of lymphocyte-mediated disorders. HTLV-1 transmission occurs by transmission of infected cells via breast-feeding by infected mothers, sexual intercourse, and contaminated blood products. The route of exposure and early virus replication events are believed to be key determinants of virus-associated spread, antiviral immune responses, and ultimately disease outcomes. The lack of knowledge of early events of HTLV-1 spread following blood-borne transmission of the virus in vivo hinders a more complete understanding of the immunopathogenesis of HTLV-1 infections. Herein, we have used an established animal model of HTLV-1 infection to study early spatial and temporal events of the viral infection. Twelve-week-old rabbits were injected intravenously with cell-associated HTLV-1 (ACH-transformed R49). Blood and tissues were collected at defined intervals throughout the study to test the early spread of the infection. Antibody and hematologic responses were monitored throughout the infection. HTLV-1 intracellular Tax and soluble p19 matrix were tested from ex vivo cultured lymphocytes. Proviral copy numbers were measured by real-time PCR from blood and tissue mononuclear leukocytes. Our data indicate that intravenous infection with cell-associated HTLV-1 targets lymphocytes located in both primary lymphoid and gut-associated lymphoid compartments. A transient lymphocytosis that correlated with peak virus detection parameters was observed by 1 week postinfection before returning to baseline levels. Our data support emerging evidence that HTLV-1 promotes lymphocyte proliferation preceding early viral spread in lymphoid compartments to establish and maintain persistent infection. PMID:20219918

  10. Structural and Dynamic Insights into the Mechanism of Allosteric Signal Transmission in ERK2-Mediated MKP3 Activation.

    PubMed

    Lu, Chang; Liu, Xin; Zhang, Chen-Song; Gong, Haipeng; Wu, Jia-Wei; Wang, Zhi-Xin

    2017-11-21

    The mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs) are key components of cellular signal transduction pathways, which are down-regulated by the MAPK phosphatases (MKPs). Catalytic activity of the MKPs is controlled both by their ability to recognize selective MAPKs and by allosteric activation upon binding to MAPK substrates. Here, we use a combination of experimental and computational techniques to elucidate the molecular mechanism for the ERK2-induced MKP3 activation. Mutational and kinetic study shows that the 334 FNFM 337 motif in the MKP3 catalytic domain is essential for MKP3-mediated ERK2 inactivation and is responsible for ERK2-mediated MKP3 activation. The long-term molecular dynamics (MD) simulations further reveal a complete dynamic process in which the catalytic domain of MKP3 gradually changes to a conformation that resembles an active MKP catalytic domain over the time scale of the simulation, providing a direct time-dependent observation of allosteric signal transmission in ERK2-induced MKP3 activation.

  11. Modeling household and community transmission of Ebola virus disease: Epidemic growth, spatial dynamics and insights for epidemic control.

    PubMed

    Kiskowski, Maria; Chowell, Gerardo

    2016-01-01

    The mechanisms behind the sub-exponential growth dynamics of the West Africa Ebola virus disease epidemic could be related to improved control of the epidemic and the result of reduced disease transmission in spatially constrained contact structures. An individual-based, stochastic network model is used to model immediate and delayed epidemic control in the context of social contact networks and investigate the extent to which the relative role of these factors may be determined during an outbreak. We find that in general, epidemics quickly establish a dynamic equilibrium of infections in the form of a wave of fixed size and speed traveling through the contact network. Both greater epidemic control and limited community mixing decrease the size of an infectious wave. However, for a fixed wave size, epidemic control (in contrast with limited community mixing) results in lower community saturation and a wave that moves more quickly through the contact network. We also found that the level of epidemic control has a disproportionately greater reductive effect on larger waves, so that a small wave requires nearly as much epidemic control as a larger wave to end an epidemic.

  12. Modeling household and community transmission of Ebola virus disease: Epidemic growth, spatial dynamics and insights for epidemic control

    PubMed Central

    Kiskowski, Maria; Chowell, Gerardo

    2016-01-01

    The mechanisms behind the sub-exponential growth dynamics of the West Africa Ebola virus disease epidemic could be related to improved control of the epidemic and the result of reduced disease transmission in spatially constrained contact structures. An individual-based, stochastic network model is used to model immediate and delayed epidemic control in the context of social contact networks and investigate the extent to which the relative role of these factors may be determined during an outbreak. We find that in general, epidemics quickly establish a dynamic equilibrium of infections in the form of a wave of fixed size and speed traveling through the contact network. Both greater epidemic control and limited community mixing decrease the size of an infectious wave. However, for a fixed wave size, epidemic control (in contrast with limited community mixing) results in lower community saturation and a wave that moves more quickly through the contact network. We also found that the level of epidemic control has a disproportionately greater reductive effect on larger waves, so that a small wave requires nearly as much epidemic control as a larger wave to end an epidemic. PMID:26399855

  13. The drug sensitivity and transmission dynamics of human malaria on Nias Island, North Sumatra, Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Fryauff, D J; Leksana, B; Masbar, S; Wiady, I; Sismadi, P; Susanti, A I; Nagesha, H S; Syafruddin; Atmosoedjono, S; Bangs, M J; Baird, J K

    2002-07-01

    Nias Island, off the north-western coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, was one of the first locations in which chloroquine-resistant Plasmodium vivax malaria was reported. This resistance is of particular concern because its ancient megalithic culture and the outstanding surfing conditions make the island a popular tourist destination. International travel to and from the island could rapidly spread chloroquine-resistant strains of P. vivax across the planet. The threat posed by such strains, locally and internationally, has led to the routine and periodic re-assessment of the efficacy of antimalarial drugs and transmission potential on the island. Active case detection identified malaria in 124 (17%) of 710 local residents whereas passive case detection, at the central health clinic, confirmed malaria in 77 (44%) of 173 cases of presumed 'clinical malaria'. Informed consenting volunteers who had malarial parasitaemias were treated, according to the Indonesian Ministry of Health's recommendations, with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) on day 0 (for P. falciparum) or with chloroquine (CQ) on days 0, 1 and 2 (for P. vivax). Each volunteer was then monitored for clinical and parasite response until day 28. Recurrent parasitaemia by day 28 treatment was seen in 29 (83%) of the 35 P. falciparum cases given SP (14, 11 and four cases showing RI, RII and RIII resistance, respectively). Recurrent parasitaemia was also observed, between day 11 and day 21, in six (21%) of the 28 P. vivax cases given CQ. Although the results of quantitative analysis confirmed only low prevalences of CQ-resistant P. vivax malaria, the prevalence of SP resistance among the P. falciparum cases was among the highest seen in Indonesia. When the parasites present in the volunteers with P. falciparum infections were genotyped, mutations associated with pyrimethamine resistance were found at high frequency in the dhfr gene but there was no evidence of selection for sulfadoxine resistance in the dhps gene

  14. Global genetic variation and transmission dynamics of H9N2 avian influenza virus.

    PubMed

    Wei, K; Li, Y

    2018-04-01

    of gene flow was observed between America and East Asia. Moreover, the America together with Southeast Asia acted as the primary hubs of global transmission, forming the trunk of evolutionary tree. These findings suggested a complex interaction between virus evolution, epidemiology and human behaviour. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  15. The transmission dynamics of groups A and B human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) in England & Wales and Finland: seasonality and cross-protection.

    PubMed

    White, L J; Waris, M; Cane, P A; Nokes, D J; Medley, G F

    2005-04-01

    Human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) transmission dynamics are inherently cyclical, and the observed genetic diversity (between groups A and B) also appears to have a repeating pattern. A key unknown is the extent to which genetic variants interact immunologically, and thus impact on epidemiology. We developed a novel mathematical model for hRSV transmission including seasonal forcing of incidence and temporary intra- and inter-group partial immunity. Simultaneous model fits to data from two locations (England & Wales, UK, and Turku, Finland) successfully reproduced the contrasting infection dynamics and group A/B dominance patterns. Parameter estimates are consistent with direct estimates. Differences in the magnitude and seasonal variation in contact rate between the two populations alone could account for the variation in dynamics between these populations. The A/B group dominance patterns are explained by reductions in susceptibility to and infectiousness of secondary homologous and heterologous infections. The consequences of the observed dynamic complexity are discussed.

  16. Early circulating tumor DNA dynamics and clonal selection with palbociclib and fulvestrant for breast cancer.

    PubMed

    O'Leary, Ben; Hrebien, Sarah; Morden, James P; Beaney, Matthew; Fribbens, Charlotte; Huang, Xin; Liu, Yuan; Bartlett, Cynthia Huang; Koehler, Maria; Cristofanilli, Massimo; Garcia-Murillas, Isaac; Bliss, Judith M; Turner, Nicholas C

    2018-03-01

    CDK4/6 inhibition substantially improves progression-free survival (PFS) for women with advanced estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer, although there are no predictive biomarkers. Early changes in circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) level may provide early response prediction, but the impact of tumor heterogeneity is unknown. Here we use plasma samples from patients in the randomized phase III PALOMA-3 study of CDK4/6 inhibitor palbociclib and fulvestrant for women with advanced breast cancer and show that relative change in PIK3CA ctDNA level after 15 days treatment strongly predicts PFS on palbociclib and fulvestrant (hazard ratio 3.94, log-rank p = 0.0013). ESR1 mutations selected by prior hormone therapy are shown to be frequently sub clonal, with ESR1 ctDNA dynamics offering limited prediction of clinical outcome. These results suggest that early ctDNA dynamics may provide a robust biomarker for CDK4/6 inhibitors, with early ctDNA dynamics demonstrating divergent response of tumor sub clones to treatment.

  17. Training the Next Generation of Scientists: System Dynamics Modeling of Chagas Disease (American Trypanosomiasis) transmission.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goff, P.; Hulse, A.; Harder, H. R.; Pierce, L. A.; Rizzo, D.; Hanley, J.; Orantes, L.; Stevens, L.; Justi, S.; Monroy, C.

    2015-12-01

    A computational simulation has been designed as an investigative case study by high school students to introduce system dynamics modeling into high school curriculum. This case study approach leads users through the forensics necessary to diagnose an unknown disease in a Central American village. This disease, Chagas, is endemic to 21 Latin American countries. The CDC estimates that of the 110 million people living in areas with the disease, 8 million are infected, with as many as 300,000 US cases. Chagas is caused by the protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi, and is spread via blood feeding insect (vectors), that feed on vertebrates and live in crevasses in the walls and roofs of adobe homes. One-third of the infected people will develop chronic Chagas who are asymptomatic for years before their heart or GI tract become enlarged resulting in death. The case study has three parts. Students play the role of WHO field investigators and work collaboratively to: 1) use genetics to identify the host(s) and vector of the disease 2) use a STELLA™ SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) system dynamics model to study Chagas at the village scale and 3) develop management strategies. The simulations identify mitigation strategies known as Ecohealth Interventions (e.g., home improvements using local materials) to help stakeholders test and compare multiple optima. High school students collaborated with researchers from the University of Vermont, Loyola University and Universidad de San Carlos, Guatemala, working in labs, interviewing researchers, and incorporating mulitple field data as part of a NSF-funded multiyear grant. The model displays stable equilibria of hosts, vectors, and disease-states. Sensitivity analyses show measures of household condition and presence of vertebrates were significant leverage points, supporting other findings by the University research team. The village-scale model explores multiple solutions to disease mitigation for the purpose of producing

  18. Artificial Neural Network-Based Early-Age Concrete Strength Monitoring Using Dynamic Response Signals.

    PubMed

    Kim, Junkyeong; Lee, Chaggil; Park, Seunghee

    2017-06-07

    Concrete is one of the most common materials used to construct a variety of civil infrastructures. However, since concrete might be susceptible to brittle fracture, it is essential to confirm the strength of concrete at the early-age stage of the curing process to prevent unexpected collapse. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel method to estimate the early-age strength of concrete, by integrating an artificial neural network algorithm with a dynamic response measurement of the concrete material. The dynamic response signals of the concrete, including both electromechanical impedances and guided ultrasonic waves, are obtained from an embedded piezoelectric sensor module. The cross-correlation coefficient of the electromechanical impedance signals and the amplitude of the guided ultrasonic wave signals are selected to quantify the variation in dynamic responses according to the strength of the concrete. Furthermore, an artificial neural network algorithm is used to verify a relationship between the variation in dynamic response signals and concrete strength. The results of an experimental study confirm that the proposed approach can be effectively applied to estimate the strength of concrete material from the early-age stage of the curing process.

  19. Artificial Neural Network-Based Early-Age Concrete Strength Monitoring Using Dynamic Response Signals

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Junkyeong; Lee, Chaggil; Park, Seunghee

    2017-01-01

    Concrete is one of the most common materials used to construct a variety of civil infrastructures. However, since concrete might be susceptible to brittle fracture, it is essential to confirm the strength of concrete at the early-age stage of the curing process to prevent unexpected collapse. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel method to estimate the early-age strength of concrete, by integrating an artificial neural network algorithm with a dynamic response measurement of the concrete material. The dynamic response signals of the concrete, including both electromechanical impedances and guided ultrasonic waves, are obtained from an embedded piezoelectric sensor module. The cross-correlation coefficient of the electromechanical impedance signals and the amplitude of the guided ultrasonic wave signals are selected to quantify the variation in dynamic responses according to the strength of the concrete. Furthermore, an artificial neural network algorithm is used to verify a relationship between the variation in dynamic response signals and concrete strength. The results of an experimental study confirm that the proposed approach can be effectively applied to estimate the strength of concrete material from the early-age stage of the curing process. PMID:28590456

  20. Dynamics of cultural transmission in Native Americans of the high Great Plains.

    PubMed

    Lycett, Stephen J

    2014-01-01

    Culture is a phenomenon shared by all humans. Attempts to understand how dynamic factors affect the origin and distribution of cultural elements are, therefore, of interest to all humanity. As case studies go, understanding the distribution of cultural elements in Native American communities during the historical period of the Great Plains would seem a most challenging one. Famously, there is a mixture of powerful internal and external factors, creating-for a relatively brief period in time-a seemingly distinctive set of shared elements from a linguistically diverse set of peoples. This is known across the world as the "Great Plains culture." Here, quantitative analyses show how different processes operated on two sets of cultural traits among nine High Plains groups. Moccasin decorations exhibit a pattern consistent with geographically-mediated between-group interaction. However, group variations in the religious ceremony of the Sun Dance also reveal evidence of purifying cultural selection associated with historical biases, dividing down ancient linguistic lines. The latter shows that while the conglomeration of "Plains culture" may have been a product of merging new ideas with old, combined with cultural interchange between groups, the details of what was accepted, rejected or elaborated in each case reflected preexisting ideological biases. Although culture may sometimes be a "melting pot," the analyses show that even in highly fluid situations, cultural mosaics may be indirectly shaped by historical factors that are not always obvious.

  1. Transmission or Within-Host Dynamics Driving Pulses of Zoonotic Viruses in Reservoir–Host Populations

    PubMed Central

    Plowright, Raina K.; Peel, Alison J.; Streicker, Daniel G.; Gilbert, Amy T.; McCallum, Hamish; Wood, James; Baker, Michelle L.; Restif, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    Progress in combatting zoonoses that emerge from wildlife is often constrained by limited knowledge of the biology of pathogens within reservoir hosts. We focus on the host–pathogen dynamics of four emerging viruses associated with bats: Hendra, Nipah, Ebola, and Marburg viruses. Spillover of bat infections to humans and domestic animals often coincides with pulses of viral excretion within bat populations, but the mechanisms driving such pulses are unclear. Three hypotheses dominate current research on these emerging bat infections. First, pulses of viral excretion could reflect seasonal epidemic cycles driven by natural variations in population densities and contact rates among hosts. If lifelong immunity follows recovery, viruses may disappear locally but persist globally through migration; in either case, new outbreaks occur once births replenish the susceptible pool. Second, epidemic cycles could be the result of waning immunity within bats, allowing local circulation of viruses through oscillating herd immunity. Third, pulses could be generated by episodic shedding from persistently infected bats through a combination of physiological and ecological factors. The three scenarios can yield similar patterns in epidemiological surveys, but strategies to predict or manage spillover risk resulting from each scenario will be different. We outline an agenda for research on viruses emerging from bats that would allow for differentiation among the scenarios and inform development of evidence-based interventions to limit threats to human and animal health. These concepts and methods are applicable to a wide range of pathogens that affect humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. PMID:27489944

  2. Disease dynamics of Montipora white syndrome within Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii: distribution, seasonality, virulence, and transmissibility.

    PubMed

    Aeby, G S; Ross, M; Williams, G J; Lewis, T D; Works, T M

    2010-07-26

    We report on an investigation of Montipora white syndrome (MWS), which is a coral disease reported from Hawaii, U.S.A., that results in tissue loss. Disease surveys of Montipora capitata within Kaneohe Bay (Oahu) found colonies that were affected by MWS on 9 reefs within 3 regions of Kaneohe Bay (south, central, north). Mean MWS prevalence ranged from 0.02 to 0.87% and average number of MWS cases per survey site ranged from 1 to 28 colonies. MWS prevalence and number of cases were significantly lower in the central region as compared to those in the north and south regions of Kaneohe Bay. There was a positive relationship between host abundance and MWS prevalence, and differences in host abundance between sites explained approximately 27% of the variation in MWS prevalence. Reefs in central Kaneohe Bay had lower M. capitata cover and lower MWS levels. MWS prevalence on reefs was neither significantly different between seasons (spring versus fall) nor among 57 tagged colonies that were monitored through time. MWS is a chronic and progressive disease causing M. capitata colonies to lose an average of 3.1% of live tissue mo(-1). Case fatality rate was 28% after 2 yr but recovery occurred in some colonies (32%). Manipulative experiments showed that the disease is acquired through direct contact. This is the first study to examine the dynamics of MWS within Hawaii, and our findings suggest that MWS has the potential to degrade Hawaii's reefs through time.

  3. Trans3D: a free tool for dynamical visualization of EEG activity transmission in the brain.

    PubMed

    Blinowski, Grzegorz; Kamiński, Maciej; Wawer, Dariusz

    2014-08-01

    The problem of functional connectivity in the brain is in the focus of attention nowadays, since it is crucial for understanding information processing in the brain. A large repertoire of measures of connectivity have been devised, some of them being capable of estimating time-varying directed connectivity. Hence, there is a need for a dedicated software tool for visualizing the propagation of electrical activity in the brain. To this aim, the Trans3D application was developed. It is an open access tool based on widely available libraries and supporting both Windows XP/Vista/7(™), Linux and Mac environments. Trans3D can create animations of activity propagation between electrodes/sensors, which can be placed by the user on the scalp/cortex of a 3D model of the head. Various interactive graphic functions for manipulating and visualizing components of the 3D model and input data are available. An application of the Trans3D tool has helped to elucidate the dynamics of the phenomena of information processing in motor and cognitive tasks, which otherwise would have been very difficult to observe. Trans3D is available at: http://www.eeg.pl/. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Abnormal early dynamic individual patterns of functional networks in low gamma band for depression recognition.

    PubMed

    Bi, Kun; Chattun, Mahammad Ridwan; Liu, Xiaoxue; Wang, Qiang; Tian, Shui; Zhang, Siqi; Lu, Qing; Yao, Zhijian

    2018-06-13

    The functional networks are associated with emotional processing in depression. The mapping of dynamic spatio-temporal brain networks is used to explore individual performance during early negative emotional processing. However, the dysfunctions of functional networks in low gamma band and their discriminative potentialities during early period of emotional face processing remain to be explored. Functional brain networks were constructed from the MEG recordings of 54 depressed patients and 54 controls in low gamma band (30-48 Hz). Dynamic connectivity regression (DCR) algorithm analyzed the individual change points of time series in response to emotional stimuli and constructed individualized spatio-temporal patterns. The nodal characteristics of patterns were calculated and fed into support vector machine (SVM). Performance of the classification algorithm in low gamma band was validated by dynamic topological characteristics of individual patterns in comparison to alpha and beta band. The best discrimination accuracy of individual spatio-temporal patterns was 91.01% in low gamma band. Individual temporal patterns had better results compared to group-averaged temporal patterns in all bands. The most important discriminative networks included affective network (AN) and fronto-parietal network (FPN) in low gamma band. The sample size is relatively small. High gamma band was not considered. The abnormal dynamic functional networks in low gamma band during early emotion processing enabled depression recognition. The individual information processing is crucial in the discovery of abnormal spatio-temporal patterns in depression during early negative emotional processing. Individual spatio-temporal patterns may reflect the real dynamic function of subjects while group-averaged data may neglect some individual information. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  5. Comprehensive Modeling and Analysis of Rotorcraft Variable Speed Propulsion System With Coupled Engine/Transmission/Rotor Dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeSmidt, Hans A.; Smith, Edward C.; Bill, Robert C.; Wang, Kon-Well

    2013-01-01

    This project develops comprehensive modeling and simulation tools for analysis of variable rotor speed helicopter propulsion system dynamics. The Comprehensive Variable-Speed Rotorcraft Propulsion Modeling (CVSRPM) tool developed in this research is used to investigate coupled rotor/engine/fuel control/gearbox/shaft/clutch/flight control system dynamic interactions for several variable rotor speed mission scenarios. In this investigation, a prototypical two-speed Dual-Clutch Transmission (DCT) is proposed and designed to achieve 50 percent rotor speed variation. The comprehensive modeling tool developed in this study is utilized to analyze the two-speed shift response of both a conventional single rotor helicopter and a tiltrotor drive system. In the tiltrotor system, both a Parallel Shift Control (PSC) strategy and a Sequential Shift Control (SSC) strategy for constant and variable forward speed mission profiles are analyzed. Under the PSC strategy, selecting clutch shift-rate results in a design tradeoff between transient engine surge margins and clutch frictional power dissipation. In the case of SSC, clutch power dissipation is drastically reduced in exchange for the necessity to disengage one engine at a time which requires a multi-DCT drive system topology. In addition to comprehensive simulations, several sections are dedicated to detailed analysis of driveline subsystem components under variable speed operation. In particular an aeroelastic simulation of a stiff in-plane rotor using nonlinear quasi-steady blade element theory was conducted to investigate variable speed rotor dynamics. It was found that 2/rev and 4/rev flap and lag vibrations were significant during resonance crossings with 4/rev lagwise loads being directly transferred into drive-system torque disturbances. To capture the clutch engagement dynamics, a nonlinear stick-slip clutch torque model is developed. Also, a transient gas-turbine engine model based on first principles mean

  6. Kinetics of liquid-mediated crystallization of amorphous Ge from multi-frame dynamic transmission electron microscopy

    DOE PAGES

    Santala, M. K.; Raoux, S.; Campbell, G. H.

    2015-12-24

    The kinetics of laser-induced, liquid-mediated crystallization of amorphous Ge thin films were studied using multi-frame dynamic transmission electron microscopy (DTEM), a nanosecond-scale photo-emission transmission electron microscopy technique. In these experiments, high temperature gradients are established in thin amorphous Ge films with a 12-ns laser pulse with a Gaussian spatial profile. The hottest region at the center of the laser spot crystallizes in ~100 ns and becomes nano-crystalline. Over the next several hundred nanoseconds crystallization continues radially outward from the nano-crystalline region forming elongated grains, some many microns long. The growth rate during the formation of these radial grains is measuredmore » with time-resolved imaging experiments. Crystal growth rates exceed 10 m/s, which are consistent with crystallization mediated by a very thin, undercooled transient liquid layer, rather than a purely solid-state transformation mechanism. The kinetics of this growth mode have been studied in detail under steady-state conditions, but here we provide a detailed study of liquid-mediated growth in high temperature gradients. Unexpectedly, the propagation rate of the crystallization front was observed to remain constant during this growth mode even when passing through large local temperature gradients, in stark contrast to other similar studies that suggested the growth rate changed dramatically. As a result, the high throughput of multi-frame DTEM provides gives a more complete picture of the role of temperature and temperature gradient on laser crystallization than previous DTEM experiments.« less

  7. Kinetics of liquid-mediated crystallization of amorphous Ge from multi-frame dynamic transmission electron microscopy

    SciTech Connect

    Santala, M. K., E-mail: melissa.santala@oregonstate.edu; Campbell, G. H.; Raoux, S.

    2015-12-21

    The kinetics of laser-induced, liquid-mediated crystallization of amorphous Ge thin films were studied using multi-frame dynamic transmission electron microscopy (DTEM), a nanosecond-scale photo-emission transmission electron microscopy technique. In these experiments, high temperature gradients are established in thin amorphous Ge films with a 12-ns laser pulse with a Gaussian spatial profile. The hottest region at the center of the laser spot crystallizes in ∼100 ns and becomes nano-crystalline. Over the next several hundred nanoseconds crystallization continues radially outward from the nano-crystalline region forming elongated grains, some many microns long. The growth rate during the formation of these radial grains is measured withmore » time-resolved imaging experiments. Crystal growth rates exceed 10 m/s, which are consistent with crystallization mediated by a very thin, undercooled transient liquid layer, rather than a purely solid-state transformation mechanism. The kinetics of this growth mode have been studied in detail under steady-state conditions, but here we provide a detailed study of liquid-mediated growth in high temperature gradients. Unexpectedly, the propagation rate of the crystallization front was observed to remain constant during this growth mode even when passing through large local temperature gradients, in stark contrast to other similar studies that suggested the growth rate changed dramatically. The high throughput of multi-frame DTEM provides gives a more complete picture of the role of temperature and temperature gradient on laser crystallization than previous DTEM experiments.« less

  8. Effect of parallel radiofrequency transmission on arterial input function selection in dynamic contrast-enhanced 3 Tesla pelvic MRI.

    PubMed

    Chafi, Hatim; Elias, Saba N; Nguyen, Huyen T; Friel, Harry T; Knopp, Michael V; Guo, BeiBei; Heymsfield, Steven B; Jia, Guang

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate whether parallel radiofrequency transmission (mTX) can improve the symmetry of the left and right femoral arteries in dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) of prostate and bladder cancer. Eighteen prostate and 24 bladder cancer patients underwent 3.0 Tesla DCE-MRI scan with a single transmission channel coil. Subsequently, 21 prostate and 21 bladder cancer patients were scanned using the dual channel mTX upgrade. The precontrast signal ( S0) and the maximum enhancement ratio (MER) were measured in both the left and the right femoral arteries. Within the patient cohort, the ratio of S0 and MER in the left artery to that in the right artery ( S0_LR, MER_LR) was calculated with and without the use of mTX. Left to right asymmetry indices for S0 ( S0_LRasym) and MER ( MER_LRasym) were defined as the absolute values of the difference between S0_LR and 1, and the difference between MER_LR and 1, respectively. S0_LRasym, and MER_LRasym were 0.21 and 0.19 for prostate cancer patients with mTX, and 0.43 and 0.45 for the ones imaged without it (P < 0.001). Also, for the bladder cancer patients, S0_LRasym, and MER_LRasym were 0.11 and 0.9 with mTX, while imaging without it yielded 0.52 and 0.39 (P < 0.001). mTX can significantly improve left-to-right symmetry of femoral artery precontrast signal and contrast enhancement. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. What You See Is What You Get: The Role of Early Adolescents' Perceptions in the Intergenerational Transmission of Academic Values

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gniewosz, Burkhard; Noack, Peter

    2012-01-01

    The present research addresses processes involved in academic value transmission within family. Drawing on expectancy x value and social learning theory, a two-wave longitudinal study based on data from 1014 students, 878 mothers, and 748 fathers was conducted to examine the mechanisms of parental influence. Structural equation modeling provided…

  10. Effect of the Large Scale Environment on the Internal Dynamics of Early-Type Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maubon, G.; Prugniel, Ph.

    We have studied the population-density relation in very sparse environments, from poor clusters to isolated galaxies, and we find that early-type galaxies with a young stellar population are preferably found in the lowest density environments. We show a marginal indication that this effect is due to an enhancement of the stellar formation independent of the morphological segregation, but we failed to find any effect from the internal dynamics.

  11. Early chemo-dynamical evolution of dwarf galaxies deduced from enrichment of r-process elements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirai, Yutaka; Ishimaru, Yuhri; Saitoh, Takayuki R.; Fujii, Michiko S.; Hidaka, Jun; Kajino, Toshitaka

    2017-04-01

    The abundance of elements synthesized by the rapid neutron-capture process (r-process elements) of extremely metal-poor (EMP) stars in the Local Group galaxies gives us clues to clarify the early evolutionary history of the Milky Way halo. The Local Group dwarf galaxies would have similarly evolved with building blocks of the Milky Way halo. However, how the chemo-dynamical evolution of the building blocks affects the abundance of r-process elements is not yet clear. In this paper, we perform a series of simulations using dwarf galaxy models with various dynamical times and total mass, which determine star formation histories. We find that galaxies with dynamical times longer than 100 Myr have star formation rates less than 10-3 M⊙ yr-1 and slowly enrich metals in their early phase. These galaxies can explain the observed large scatters of r-process abundance in EMP stars in the Milky Way halo regardless of their total mass. On the other hand, the first neutron star merger appears at a higher metallicity in galaxies with a dynamical time shorter than typical neutron star merger times. The scatters of r-process elements mainly come from the inhomogeneity of the metals in the interstellar medium whereas the scatters of α-elements are mostly due to the difference in the yield of each supernova. Our results demonstrate that the future observations of r-process elements in EMP stars will be able to constrain the early chemo-dynamical evolution of the Local Group galaxies.

  12. Activity in early visual areas predicts interindividual differences in binocular rivalry dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Yamashiro, Hiroyuki; Mano, Hiroaki; Umeda, Masahiro; Higuchi, Toshihiro; Saiki, Jun

    2013-01-01

    When dissimilar images are presented to the two eyes, binocular rivalry (BR) occurs, and perception alternates spontaneously between the images. Although neural correlates of the oscillating perception during BR have been found in multiple sites along the visual pathway, the source of BR dynamics is unclear. Psychophysical and modeling studies suggest that both low- and high-level cortical processes underlie BR dynamics. Previous neuroimaging studies have demonstrated the involvement of high-level regions by showing that frontal and parietal cortices responded time locked to spontaneous perceptual alternation in BR. However, a potential contribution of early visual areas to BR dynamics has been overlooked, because these areas also responded to the physical stimulus alternation mimicking BR. In the present study, instead of focusing on activity during perceptual switches, we highlighted brain activity during suppression periods to investigate a potential link between activity in human early visual areas and BR dynamics. We used a strong interocular suppression paradigm called continuous flash suppression to suppress and fluctuate the visibility of a probe stimulus and measured retinotopic responses to the onset of the invisible probe using functional MRI. There were ∼130-fold differences in the median suppression durations across 12 subjects. The individual differences in suppression durations could be predicted by the amplitudes of the retinotopic activity in extrastriate visual areas (V3 and V4v) evoked by the invisible probe. Weaker responses were associated with longer suppression durations. These results demonstrate that retinotopic representations in early visual areas play a role in the dynamics of perceptual alternations during BR. PMID:24353304

  13. Epidemic Wave Dynamics Attributable to Urban Community Structure: A Theoretical Characterization of Disease Transmission in a Large Network

    PubMed Central

    Eggo, Rosalind M; Lenczner, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Background Multiple waves of transmission during infectious disease epidemics represent a major public health challenge, but the ecological and behavioral drivers of epidemic resurgence are poorly understood. In theory, community structure—aggregation into highly intraconnected and loosely interconnected social groups—within human populations may lead to punctuated outbreaks as diseases progress from one community to the next. However, this explanation has been largely overlooked in favor of temporal shifts in environmental conditions and human behavior and because of the difficulties associated with estimating large-scale contact patterns. Objective The aim was to characterize naturally arising patterns of human contact that are capable of producing simulated epidemics with multiple wave structures. Methods We used an extensive dataset of proximal physical contacts between users of a public Wi-Fi Internet system to evaluate the epidemiological implications of an empirical urban contact network. We characterized the modularity (community structure) of the network and then estimated epidemic dynamics under a percolation-based model of infectious disease spread on the network. We classified simulated epidemics as multiwave using a novel metric and we identified network structures that were critical to the network’s ability to produce multiwave epidemics. Results We identified robust community structure in a large, empirical urban contact network from which multiwave epidemics may emerge naturally. This pattern was fueled by a special kind of insularity in which locally popular individuals were not the ones forging contacts with more distant social groups. Conclusions Our results suggest that ordinary contact patterns can produce multiwave epidemics at the scale of a single urban area without the temporal shifts that are usually assumed to be responsible. Understanding the role of community structure in epidemic dynamics allows officials to anticipate epidemic

  14. Seasonal and Spatial Dynamics of the Primary Vector of Plasmodium knowlesi within a Major Transmission Focus in Sabah, Malaysia

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Meng L.; Chua, Tock H.; Leong, Cherng S.; Khaw, Loke T.; Fornace, Kimberly; Wan-Sulaiman, Wan-Yusoff; William, Timothy; Drakeley, Chris; Ferguson, Heather M.; Vythilingam, Indra

    2015-01-01

    Background The simian malaria parasite Plasmodium knowlesi is emerging as a public health problem in Southeast Asia, particularly in Malaysian Borneo where it now accounts for the greatest burden of malaria cases and deaths. Control is hindered by limited understanding of the ecology of potential vector species. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a one year longitudinal study of P. knowlesi vectors in three sites within an endemic area of Sabah, Malaysia. All mosquitoes were captured using human landing catch. Anopheles mosquitoes were dissected to determine, oocyst, sporozoites and parous rate. Anopheles balabacensis is confirmed as the primary vector of. P. knowlesi (using nested PCR) in Sabah for the first time. Vector densities were significantly higher and more seasonally variable in the village than forest or small scale farming site. However An. balabacensis survival and P. knowlesi infection rates were highest in forest and small scale farm sites. Anopheles balabacensis mostly bites humans outdoors in the early evening between 1800 to 2000hrs. Conclusions/Significance This study indicates transmission is unlikely to be prevented by bednets. This combined with its high vectorial capacity poses a threat to malaria elimination programmes within the region. PMID:26448052

  15. High speed direct imaging of thin metal film ablation by movie-mode dynamic transmission electron microscopy

    DOE PAGES

    Hihath, Sahar; Santala, Melissa K.; Cen, Xi; ...

    2016-03-11

    Obliteration of matter by pulsed laser beams is not only prevalent in science fiction movies, but finds numerous technological applications ranging from additive manufacturing over machining of micro- and nanostructured features to health care. Pulse lengths ranging from femtoseconds to nanoseconds are utilized at varying laser beam energies and pulse lengths, and enable the removal of nanometric volumes of material. While the mechanisms for removal of material by laser irradiation, i.e., laser ablation, are well understood on the micrometer length scale, it was previously impossible to directly observe obliteration processes on smaller scales due to experimental limitations for the combinationmore » of nanometer spatial and nanosecond temporal resolution. Here, we report the direct observation of metal thin film ablation from a solid substrate through dynamic transmission electron microscopy. Quantitative analysis reveals liquid-phase dewetting of the thin-film, followed by hydrodynamic sputtering of nano- to submicron sized metal droplets. We discovered unexpected fracturing of the substrate due to evolving thermal stresses. This study confirms that hydrodynamic sputtering remains a valid mechanism for droplet expulsion on the nanoscale, while irradiation induced stress fields represent limit laser processing of nanostructured materials. Ultimately, our results allow for improved safety during laser ablation in manufacturing and medical applications.« less

  16. High speed direct imaging of thin metal film ablation by movie-mode dynamic transmission electron microscopy

    PubMed Central

    Hihath, Sahar; Santala, Melissa K.; Cen, Xi; Campbell, Geoffrey; van Benthem, Klaus

    2016-01-01

    Obliteration of matter by pulsed laser beams is not only prevalent in science fiction movies, but finds numerous technological applications ranging from additive manufacturing over machining of micro- and nanostructured features to health care. Pulse lengths ranging from femtoseconds to nanoseconds are utilized at varying laser beam energies and pulse lengths, and enable the removal of nanometric volumes of material. While the mechanisms for removal of material by laser irradiation, i.e., laser ablation, are well understood on the micrometer length scale, it was previously impossible to directly observe obliteration processes on smaller scales due to experimental limitations for the combination of nanometer spatial and nanosecond temporal resolution. Here, we report the direct observation of metal thin film ablation from a solid substrate through dynamic transmission electron microscopy. Quantitative analysis reveals liquid-phase dewetting of the thin-film, followed by hydrodynamic sputtering of nano- to submicron sized metal droplets. We discovered unexpected fracturing of the substrate due to evolving thermal stresses. This study confirms that hydrodynamic sputtering remains a valid mechanism for droplet expulsion on the nanoscale, while irradiation induced stress fields represent limit laser processing of nanostructured materials. Our results allow for improved safety during laser ablation in manufacturing and medical applications. PMID:26965073

  17. Crystallization kinetics of the phase change material GeSb 6Te measured with dynamic transmission electron microscopy

    SciTech Connect

    Winseck, M. M.; Cheng, H. -Y.; Campbell, G. H.

    2016-03-30

    GeSb 6Te is a chalcogenide-based phase change material that has shown great ptoential for use in solid-state memory devices. The crystallization kinetics of amorphous thin films of GeSb 6Te during laser crystallization were followed with dynamic transmission electron microscopy, a photo-emission electron microscopy technique with nanosecond-scale time resolution. Nine-frame movies of crystal growth were taken during laser crystallization. The nucleation rate is observed to be very low and the growth rates are very high, up to 10.8 m s –1 for amorphous as-deposited films and significantly higher for an amorphous film subject to sub-threshold laser annealing before crystallization. The measuredmore » growth rates exceed any directly measured growth rate of a phase change material. Here, the crystallization is reminiscent of explosive crystallization of elemental semiconductors both in the magnitude of the growth rate and in the resulting crystalline microstructures.« less

  18. High speed direct imaging of thin metal film ablation by movie-mode dynamic transmission electron microscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hihath, Sahar; Santala, Melissa K.; Cen, Xi; Campbell, Geoffrey; van Benthem, Klaus

    2016-03-01

    Obliteration of matter by pulsed laser beams is not only prevalent in science fiction movies, but finds numerous technological applications ranging from additive manufacturing over machining of micro- and nanostructured features to health care. Pulse lengths ranging from femtoseconds to nanoseconds are utilized at varying laser beam energies and pulse lengths, and enable the removal of nanometric volumes of material. While the mechanisms for removal of material by laser irradiation, i.e., laser ablation, are well understood on the micrometer length scale, it was previously impossible to directly observe obliteration processes on smaller scales due to experimental limitations for the combination of nanometer spatial and nanosecond temporal resolution. Here, we report the direct observation of metal thin film ablation from a solid substrate through dynamic transmission electron microscopy. Quantitative analysis reveals liquid-phase dewetting of the thin-film, followed by hydrodynamic sputtering of nano- to submicron sized metal droplets. We discovered unexpected fracturing of the substrate due to evolving thermal stresses. This study confirms that hydrodynamic sputtering remains a valid mechanism for droplet expulsion on the nanoscale, while irradiation induced stress fields represent limit laser processing of nanostructured materials. Our results allow for improved safety during laser ablation in manufacturing and medical applications.

  19. Disease dynamics during wildlife translocations: disruptions to the host population and potential consequences for transmission in desert tortoise contact networks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aiello, Christina M.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Walde, Andrew D.; Esque, Todd C.; Emblidge, Patrick G.; Sah, Pratha; Bansal, S.; Hudson, Peter J.

    2014-01-01

    Wildlife managers consider animal translocation a means of increasing the viability of a local population. However, augmentation may disrupt existing resident disease dynamics and initiate an outbreak that would effectively offset any advantages the translocation may have achieved. This paper examines fundamental concepts of disease ecology and identifies the conditions that will increase the likelihood of a disease outbreak following translocation. We highlight the importance of susceptibility to infection, population size and population connectivity – a characteristic likely affected by translocation but not often considered in risk assessments – in estimating outbreak risk due to translocation. We then explore these features in a species of conservation concern often translocated in the presence of infectious disease, the Mojave Desert tortoise, and use data from experimental tortoise translocations to detect changes in population connectivity that may influence pathogen transmission. Preliminary analyses comparing contact networks inferred from spatial data at control and translocation plots and infection simulation results through these networks suggest increased outbreak risk following translocation due to dispersal-driven changes in contact frequency and network structure. We outline future research goals to test these concepts and aid managers in designing effective risk assessment and intervention strategies that will improve translocation success.

  20. Transmission Dynamics of Rift Valley Fever Virus: Effects of Live and Killed Vaccines on Epizootic Outbreaks and Enzootic Maintenance

    PubMed Central

    Chamchod, Farida; Cosner, Chris; Cantrell, R. Stephen; Beier, John C.; Ruan, Shigui

    2016-01-01

    Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an arthropod-borne viral pathogen that causes significant morbidity and mortality in small ruminants throughout Africa and the Middle East. Due to the sporadic and explosive nature of RVF outbreaks, vaccination has proved challenging to reduce RVFV infection in the ruminant population. Currently, there are two available types of vaccines, live and killed, in endemic areas. In this study, two mathematical models have been developed to explore the impact of live and killed vaccines on the transmission dynamics of RVFV. We demonstrate in general that vaccination helps reduce the severity of RVF outbreaks and that less delay in implementation and more vaccination attempts and effective vaccines can reduce the outbreak magnitude and the endemic number of RVFV. However, an introduction of a number of ruminants vaccinated by live vaccines in RVFV-free areas may cause an outbreak and RVFV may become endemic if there is sustained use of live vaccines. Other factors that are the important determinants of RVF outbreaks include: unsustained vaccination programs, recruitment of susceptible ruminants, and the seasonal abundance of mosquitoes. PMID:26869999

  1. High speed direct imaging of thin metal film ablation by movie-mode dynamic transmission electron microscopy.

    PubMed

    Hihath, Sahar; Santala, Melissa K; Cen, Xi; Campbell, Geoffrey; van Benthem, Klaus

    2016-03-11

    Obliteration of matter by pulsed laser beams is not only prevalent in science fiction movies, but finds numerous technological applications ranging from additive manufacturing over machining of micro- and nanostructured features to health care. Pulse lengths ranging from femtoseconds to nanoseconds are utilized at varying laser beam energies and pulse lengths, and enable the removal of nanometric volumes of material. While the mechanisms for removal of material by laser irradiation, i.e., laser ablation, are well understood on the micrometer length scale, it was previously impossible to directly observe obliteration processes on smaller scales due to experimental limitations for the combination of nanometer spatial and nanosecond temporal resolution. Here, we report the direct observation of metal thin film ablation from a solid substrate through dynamic transmission electron microscopy. Quantitative analysis reveals liquid-phase dewetting of the thin-film, followed by hydrodynamic sputtering of nano- to submicron sized metal droplets. We discovered unexpected fracturing of the substrate due to evolving thermal stresses. This study confirms that hydrodynamic sputtering remains a valid mechanism for droplet expulsion on the nanoscale, while irradiation induced stress fields represent limit laser processing of nanostructured materials. Our results allow for improved safety during laser ablation in manufacturing and medical applications.

  2. Molecular assessment of Hepatozoon (Apicomplexa: Adeleorina) infections in wild canids and rodents from north Africa, with implications for transmission dynamics across taxonomic groups.

    PubMed

    Maia, João P; Alvares, Francisco; Boratyński, Zbyszek; Brito, José C; Leite, João V; Harris, D James

    2014-10-01

    Parasites play a major role in ecosystems, and understanding of host-parasite interactions is important for predicting parasite transmission dynamics and epidemiology. However, there is still a lack of knowledge about the distribution, diversity, and impact of parasites in wildlife, especially from remote areas. Hepatozoon is a genus of apicomplexan parasites that is transmitted by ingestion of infected arthropod vectors. However, alternative modes of transmission have been identified such as trophic transmission. Using the 18S rRNA gene as a marker, we provide an assessment of Hepatozoon prevalence in six wild canid and two rodent species collected between 2003 and 2012 from remote areas in North Africa. By combining this with other predator-prey systems in a phylogenetic framework, we investigate Hepatozoon transmission dynamics in distinct host taxa. Prevalence was high overall among host species (African jerboa Jaculus jaculus [17/47, 36%], greater Egyptian jerboa Jaculus orientalis [5/7, 71%], side-striped jackal Canis adustus [1/2, 50%], golden jackal Canis aureus [6/32, 18%], pale fox Vulpes pallida [14/28, 50%], Rüppell's fox Vulpes rueppellii [6/11, 55%], red fox Vulpes vulpes [8/16, 50%], and fennec fox Vulpes zerda [7/11, 42%]). Phylogenetic analysis showed further evidence of occasional transmission of Hepatozoon lineages from prey to canid predators, which seems to occur less frequently than in other predator-prey systems such as between snakes and lizards. Due to the complex nature of the Hepatozoon lifecycle (heteroxenous and vector-borne), future studies on these wild host species need to clarify the dynamics of alternative modes of Hepatozoon transmission and identify reservoir and definitive hosts in natural populations. We also detected putative Babesia spp. (Apicomplexa: Piroplasmida) infections in two canid species from this region, V. pallida (1/28) and V. zerda (1/11).

  3. A combination of new screening assays for prioritization of transmission-blocking antimalarials reveals distinct dynamics of marketed and experimental drugs.

    PubMed

    Bolscher, J M; Koolen, K M J; van Gemert, G J; van de Vegte-Bolmer, M G; Bousema, T; Leroy, D; Sauerwein, R W; Dechering, K J

    2015-05-01

    The development of drugs to reduce malaria transmission is an important part of malaria eradication plans. We set out to develop and validate a combination of new screening assays for prioritization of transmission-blocking molecules. We developed high-throughput assays for screening compounds against gametocytes, the parasite stages responsible for onward transmission to mosquitoes. An existing gametocyte parasitic lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH) assay was adapted for use in 384-well plates, and a novel homogeneous immunoassay to monitor the functional transition of female gametocytes into gametes was developed. A collection of 48 marketed and experimental antimalarials was screened and subsequently tested for impact on sporogony in Anopheles mosquitoes, to directly quantify the transmission-blocking properties of antimalarials in relation to their effects on gametocyte pLDH activity or gametogenesis. The novel screening assays revealed distinct stage-specific kinetics and dynamics of drug effects. Peroxides showed the most potent transmission-blocking effects, with an intermediate speed of action and IC50 values that were 20-40-fold higher than the IC50s against the asexual stages causing clinical malaria. Finally, the novel synthetic peroxide OZ439 appeared to be a promising drug candidate as it exerted gametocytocidal and transmission-blocking effects at clinically relevant concentrations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Quantification of Nanoscale Density Fluctuations in Biological Cells/Tissues: Inverse Participation Ratio (IPR) Analysis of Transmission Electron Microscopy Images and Implications for Early-Stage Cancer Detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pradhan, Prabhakar; Damania, Dhwanil; Joshi, Hrushikesh; Taflove, Allen; Roy, Hemant; Dravid, Vinayak; Backman, Vadim

    2010-03-01

    We report a study of the nanoscale mass density fluctuations of biological cells and tissues by quantifying their nanoscale light-localization properties. Transmission electron microscope (TEM) images of human cells and tissues are used to construct corresponding effective disordered optical lattices. Light-localization properties are studied by statistical analysis of the inverse participation ratio (IPR) of the eigenfunctions of these optical lattices at the nanoscales. Our results indicate elevation of the nanoscale disorder strength (e.g., refractive index fluctuations) in early carcinogenesis. Importantly, our results demonstrate that the increase in the nanoscale disorder represents the earliest structural alteration in cells undergoing carcinogenesis known to-date. Potential applications of the technique for early stage cancer detection will be discussed.

  5. Developing a mathematical model for the evaluation of the potential impact of a partially efficacious vaccine on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma mansoni in human communities.

    PubMed

    Stylianou, Andria; Hadjichrysanthou, Christoforos; Truscott, James E; Anderson, Roy M

    2017-06-17

    There is currently no vaccine available to protect humans against infection with the schistosome digenean parasites, although candidate formulations for Schistosoma mansoni are under trial in animal models, including rodents and primates. Current strategies for the control of infection are based on mass drug administration (MDA) targeted at school-aged children of age 5 to 14 years. This approach is unlikely to eliminate exposure to infection except in settings with very low levels of transmission. A deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of the parasite is described and employed to investigate community level outcomes. The model is defined to encompass two different delivery strategies for the vaccination of the population, namely, infant (cohort) and mass vaccination. However, in this paper the focus is on vaccination delivered in a cohort immunisation programme where infants are immunised within the first year of life before acquiring infection. An analysis of the parasite's transmission dynamics following the administration of a partially protective vaccine is presented. The vaccine acts on parasite mortality, fecundity or/and establishment. A vaccine with an efficacy of over 60% can interrupt transmission in low and moderate transmission settings. In higher transmission intensity areas, greater efficacy or higher infant vaccination coverage is required. Candidate vaccines that act either on parasite mortality, fecundity or establishment within the human host, can be similarly effective. In all cases, however, the duration of protection is important. The community level impact of vaccines with all modes of action, declines if vaccine protection is of a very short duration. However, durations of protection of 5-10 years or more are sufficient, with high coverage and efficacy levels, to halt transmission. The time taken to break transmission may be 18 years or more after the start of the cohort vaccination, depending on the intensity of

  6. Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space-time SIR-based model.

    PubMed

    Huang, Xiaodong; Clements, Archie C A; Williams, Gail; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

    2016-04-01

    A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7-December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space-time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: -0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): -0.370--0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: -0.003; 95% CI: -0.004--0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007-0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Oropsylla hirsuta (Siphonaptera: Ceratophyllidae) can support plague epizootics in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) by early-phase transmission of Yersinia pestis.

    PubMed

    Wilder, Aryn P; Eisen, Rebecca J; Bearden, Scott W; Montenieri, John A; Gage, Kenneth L; Antolin, Michael F

    2008-06-01

    Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, often leads to rapid decimation of black-tailed prairie dog colonies. Flea-borne transmission of Y. pestis has been thought to occur primarily via blocked fleas, and therefore studies of vector efficiency have focused on the period when blockage is expected to occur (> or =5 days post-infection [p.i.]). Oropsylla hirsuta, a prairie dog flea, rarely blocks and transmission is inefficient > or =5 days p.i.; thus, this flea has been considered incapable of explaining rapid dissemination of Y. pestis among prairie dogs. By infecting wild-caught fleas with Y. pestis and exposing naïve mice to groups of fleas at 24, 48, 72, and 96 h p.i., we examined the early-phase (1-4 days p.i.) efficiency of O. hirsuta to transmit Y. pestis to hosts and showed that O. hirsuta is a considerably more efficient vector at this largely overlooked stage (5.19% of fleas transmit Y. pestis at 24 h p.i.) than at later stages. Using a model of vectorial capacity, we suggest that this level of transmission can support plague at an enzootic level in a population when flea loads are within the average observed for black-tailed prairie dogs in nature. Shared burrows and sociality of prairie dogs could lead to accumulation of fleas when host population is reduced as a result of the disease, enabling epizootic spread of plague among prairie dogs.

  8. Single-Cell RNA-Seq Reveals Dynamic Early Embryonic-like Programs during Chemical Reprogramming.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Ting; Fu, Yao; Zhu, Jialiang; Liu, Yifang; Zhang, Qian; Yi, Zexuan; Chen, Shi; Jiao, Zhonggang; Xu, Xiaochan; Xu, Junquan; Duo, Shuguang; Bai, Yun; Tang, Chao; Li, Cheng; Deng, Hongkui

    2018-06-12

    Chemical reprogramming provides a powerful platform for exploring the molecular dynamics that lead to pluripotency. Although previous studies have uncovered an intermediate extraembryonic endoderm (XEN)-like state during this process, the molecular underpinnings of pluripotency acquisition remain largely undefined. Here, we profile 36,199 single-cell transcriptomes at multiple time points throughout a highly efficient chemical reprogramming system using RNA-sequencing and reconstruct their progression trajectories. Through identifying sequential molecular events, we reveal that the dynamic early embryonic-like programs are key aspects of successful reprogramming from XEN-like state to pluripotency, including the concomitant transcriptomic signatures of two-cell (2C) embryonic-like and early pluripotency programs and the epigenetic signature of notable genome-wide DNA demethylation. Moreover, via enhancing the 2C-like program by fine-tuning chemical treatment, the reprogramming process is remarkably accelerated. Collectively, our findings offer a high-resolution dissection of cell fate dynamics during chemical reprogramming and shed light on mechanistic insights into the nature of induced pluripotency. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. [Early diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus-1 in infants: The prevention of mother-to-child transmission program in Equatorial Guinea].

    PubMed

    Prieto-Tato, Luis Manuel; Vargas, Antonio; Álvarez, Patrícia; Avedillo, Pedro; Nzi, Eugenia; Abad, Carlota; Guillén, Sara; Fernández-McPhee, Carolina; Ramos, José Tomás; Holguín, África; Rojo, Pablo; Obiang, Jacinta

    2016-11-01

    Great efforts have been made in the last few years in order to implement the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) program in Equatorial Guinea (GQ). The aim of this study was to evaluate the rates of mother-to-child HIV transmission based on an HIV early infant diagnosis (EID) program. A prospective observational study was performed in the Regional Hospital of Bata and Primary Health Care Centre Maria Rafols, Bata, GQ. Epidemiological, clinical, and microbiological characteristics of HIV-1-infected mothers and their exposed infants were recorded. Dried blood spots (DBS) for HIV-1 EID were collected from November 2012 to December 2013. HIV-1 genome was detected using Siemens VERSANT HIV-1 RNA 1.0 kPCR assay. Sixty nine pairs of women and infants were included. Sixty women (88.2%) had WHO clinical stage 1. Forty seven women (69.2%) were on antiretroviral treatment during pregnancy. Forty five infants (66.1%) received postnatal antiretroviral prophylaxis. Age at first DBS analysis was 2.4 months (IQR 1.2-4.9). One infant died before a HIV-1 diagnosis could be ruled out. Two infants were HIV-1 infected and started HAART before any symptoms were observed. The rate of HIV-1 transmission observed was 2.9% (95%CI 0.2-10.5). The PMTCT rate was evaluated for the first time in GQ based on EID. EID is the key for early initiation of antiretroviral therapy and to reduce the mortality associated with HIV infection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  10. Cost-Utility of Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccine in Germany, Using an Individual-Based Dynamic Transmission Model.

    PubMed

    Dolk, Christiaan; Eichner, Martin; Welte, Robert; Anastassopoulou, Anastassia; Van Bellinghen, Laure-Anne; Poulsen Nautrup, Barbara; Van Vlaenderen, Ilse; Schmidt-Ott, Ruprecht; Schwehm, Markus; Postma, Maarten

    2016-12-01

    Seasonal influenza infection is primarily caused by circulation of two influenza A strain subtypes and strains from two B lineages that vary each year. Trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) contains only one of the two B-lineage strains, resulting in mismatches between vaccine strains and the predominant circulating B lineage. Quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) includes both B-lineage strains. The objective was to estimate the cost-utility of introducing QIV to replace TIV in Germany. An individual-based dynamic transmission model (4Flu) using German data was used to provide realistic estimates of the impact of TIV and QIV on age-specific influenza infections. Cases were linked to health and economic outcomes to calculate the cost-utility of QIV versus TIV, from both a societal and payer perspective. Costs and effects were discounted at 3.0 and 1.5 % respectively, with 2014 as the base year. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Using QIV instead of TIV resulted in additional quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and cost savings from the societal perspective (i.e. it represents the dominant strategy) and an incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of €14,461 per QALY from a healthcare payer perspective. In all univariate analyses, QIV remained cost-effective (ICUR <€50,000). In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, QIV was cost-effective in >98 and >99 % of the simulations from the societal and payer perspective, respectively. This analysis suggests that QIV in Germany would provide additional health gains while being cost-saving to society or costing €14,461 per QALY gained from the healthcare payer perspective, compared with TIV.

  11. Particle dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea: A synthesis based on light transmission, PMC, and POC archives (1991 2001)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karageorgis, Aristomenis P.; Gardner, Wilford D.; Georgopoulos, Dimitris; Mishonov, Alexey V.; Krasakopoulou, Evangelia; Anagnostou, Christos

    2008-02-01

    During the last two decades light transmission (LT) data have been collected routinely in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, within the framework of several research projects. A procedure was developed to obtain beam attenuation coefficient due to particles ( cp) at 660-670 nm adjusted for variations in mid-depth 'clear' water and instrumental drifts. Data from 3146 stations occupied between 1991 and 2001 were converted to a common format for the analysis of particulate matter (PM) temporal and spatial distribution patterns. The data were separated into 'wet' (December-May) and 'dry' (June-November) periods. The horizontal distribution of beam cp at various depths revealed clearly higher values in the surface nepheloid layer (SNL) in the vicinity of river mouths during the 'wet' period, whilst the increase was negligible during the 'dry' period. In contrast, the bottom nepheloid layer (BNL; 1-10 m above bottom) appeared to be turbid throughout the year, particularly on the continental shelves receiving riverine discharge. This feature is attributed to resuspension and advection of recently deposited bottom sediments due to waves and currents. However, the Eastern Mediterranean as a whole is impoverished in PM in the water column, particularly at depths >200 m. The behavior of surface-water cp revealed a strong relationship to mesoscale dynamic features. Cyclonic eddies, which upwell nutrient-rich waters toward the surface, favor primary production, which was identified as elevated beam cp values. Beam cp was correlated with PM concentration (PMC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) concentration obtained by bottle sampling. Although there were regional differences in the correlations, no significant seasonal variations were observed. Two generic equations were generated that can be used for a first-order estimate of PMC and POC from historical LT measurements conducted in the area, provided that data are handled according to the proposed methodology.

  12. Seasonal and Regional Dynamics of M. ulcerans Transmission in Environmental Context: Deciphering the Role of Water Bugs as Hosts and Vectors

    PubMed Central

    Marion, Estelle; Eyangoh, Sara; Yeramian, Edouard; Doannio, Julien; Landier, Jordi; Aubry, Jacques; Fontanet, Arnaud; Rogier, Christophe; Cassisa, Viviane; Cottin, Jane; Marot, Agnès; Eveillard, Matthieu; Kamdem, Yannick; Legras, Pierre; Deshayes, Caroline; Saint-André, Jean-Paul; Marsollier, Laurent

    2010-01-01

    Background Buruli ulcer, the third mycobacterial disease after tuberculosis and leprosy, is caused by the environmental mycobacterium M. ulcerans. Various modes of transmission have been suspected for this disease, with no general consensus acceptance for any of them up to now. Since laboratory models demonstrated the ability of water bugs to transmit M. ulcerans, a particular attention is focused on the transmission of the bacilli by water bugs as hosts and vectors. However, it is only through detailed knowledge of the biodiversity and ecology of water bugs that the importance of this mode of transmission can be fully assessed. It is the objective of the work here to decipher the role of water bugs in M. ulcerans ecology and transmission, based on large-scale field studies. Methodology/Principal Findings The distribution of M. ulcerans-hosting water bugs was monitored on previously unprecedented time and space scales: a total of 7,407 water bugs, belonging to large number of different families, were collected over one year, in Buruli ulcer endemic and non endemic areas in central Cameroon. This study demonstrated the presence of M. ulcerans in insect saliva. In addition, the field results provided a full picture of the ecology of transmission in terms of biodiversity and detailed specification of seasonal and regional dynamics, with large temporal heterogeneity in the insect tissue colonization rate and detection of M. ulcerans only in water bug tissues collected in Buruli ulcer endemic areas. Conclusion/Significance The large-scale detection of bacilli in saliva of biting water bugs gives enhanced weight to their role in M. ulcerans transmission. On practical grounds, beyond the ecological interest, the results concerning seasonal and regional dynamics can provide an efficient tool in the hands of sanitary authorities to monitor environmental risks associated with Buruli ulcer. PMID:20625552

  13. Foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission dynamics and persistence in a herd of vaccinated dairy cattle in India

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an important transboundary disease with substantial economic impacts. Although between-herd transmission of the disease has been well studied, studies focusing on within-herd transmission using farm-level outbreak data are rare. The aim of this study was to estimate p...

  14. Early Maternal Employment and Children's Vocabulary and Inductive Reasoning Ability: A Dynamic Approach.

    PubMed

    Kühhirt, Michael; Klein, Markus

    2018-03-01

    This study investigates the relationship between early maternal employment history and children's vocabulary and inductive reasoning ability at age 5, drawing on longitudinal information on 2,200 children from the Growing Up in Scotland data. Prior research rarely addresses dynamics in maternal employment and the methodological ramifications of time-variant confounding. The present study proposes various measures to capture duration, timing, and stability of early maternal employment and uses inverse probability of treatment weighting to control for time-variant confounders that may partially mediate the effect of maternal employment on cognitive scores. The findings suggest only modest differences in the above ability measures between children who have been exposed to very different patterns of eary maternal employment, but with similar observed covariate history. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  15. Role of vaccination-induced immunity and antigenic distance in the transmission dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1

    PubMed Central

    Rousou, Xanthoula; Kalthoff, Donata; Beer, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 epidemics in poultry cause huge economic losses as well as sporadic human morbidity and mortality. Vaccination in poultry has often been reported as being ineffective in preventing transmission and as a potential driving force in the selection of immune escape mutants. We conducted transmission experiments to evaluate the transmission dynamics of HPAI H5N1 strains in chickens vaccinated with high and low doses of immune escape mutants we have previously selected, and analysed the data using mathematical models. Remarkably, we demonstrate that the effect of antigenic distances between the vaccine and challenge strains used in this study is too small to influence the transmission dynamics of the strains used. This is because the effect of a sufficient vaccine dose on antibody levels against the challenge viruses is large enough to compensate for any decrease in antibody titres due to antigenic differences between vaccine and challenge strains. Our results show that at least under experimental conditions, vaccination will remain effective even after antigenic changes as may be caused by the initial selection in vaccinated birds. PMID:26763336

  16. Dynamic Locomotor Capabilities Revealed by Early Dinosaur Trackmakers from Southern Africa

    PubMed Central

    Wilson, Jeffrey A.; Marsicano, Claudia A.; Smith, Roger M. H.

    2009-01-01

    Background A new investigation of the sedimentology and ichnology of the Early Jurassic Moyeni tracksite in Lesotho, southern Africa has yielded new insights into the behavior and locomotor dynamics of early dinosaurs. Methodology/Principal Findings The tracksite is an ancient point bar preserving a heterogeneous substrate of varied consistency and inclination that includes a ripple-marked riverbed, a bar slope, and a stable algal-matted bar top surface. Several basal ornithischian dinosaurs and a single theropod dinosaur crossed its surface within days or perhaps weeks of one another, but responded to substrate heterogeneity differently. Whereas the theropod trackmaker accommodated sloping and slippery surfaces by gripping the substrate with its pedal claws, the basal ornithischian trackmakers adjusted to the terrain by changing between quadrupedal and bipedal stance, wide and narrow gauge limb support (abduction range = 31°), and plantigrade and digitigrade foot posture. Conclusions/Significance The locomotor adjustments coincide with changes in substrate consistency along the trackway and appear to reflect ‘real time’ responses to a complex terrain. It is proposed that these responses foreshadow important locomotor transformations characterizing the later evolution of the two main dinosaur lineages. Ornithischians, which shifted from bipedal to quadrupedal posture at least three times in their evolutionary history, are shown to have been capable of adopting both postures early in their evolutionary history. The substrate-gripping behavior demonstrated by the early theropod, in turn, is consistent with the hypothesized function of pedal claws in bird ancestors. PMID:19806213

  17. Dynamic locomotor capabilities revealed by early dinosaur trackmakers from southern Africa.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Jeffrey A; Marsicano, Claudia A; Smith, Roger M H

    2009-10-06

    A new investigation of the sedimentology and ichnology of the Early Jurassic Moyeni tracksite in Lesotho, southern Africa has yielded new insights into the behavior and locomotor dynamics of early dinosaurs. The tracksite is an ancient point bar preserving a heterogeneous substrate of varied consistency and inclination that includes a ripple-marked riverbed, a bar slope, and a stable algal-matted bar top surface. Several basal ornithischian dinosaurs and a single theropod dinosaur crossed its surface within days or perhaps weeks of one another, but responded to substrate heterogeneity differently. Whereas the theropod trackmaker accommodated sloping and slippery surfaces by gripping the substrate with its pedal claws, the basal ornithischian trackmakers adjusted to the terrain by changing between quadrupedal and bipedal stance, wide and narrow gauge limb support (abduction range = 31 degrees ), and plantigrade and digitigrade foot posture. The locomotor adjustments coincide with changes in substrate consistency along the trackway and appear to reflect 'real time' responses to a complex terrain. It is proposed that these responses foreshadow important locomotor transformations characterizing the later evolution of the two main dinosaur lineages. Ornithischians, which shifted from bipedal to quadrupedal posture at least three times in their evolutionary history, are shown to have been capable of adopting both postures early in their evolutionary history. The substrate-gripping behavior demonstrated by the early theropod, in turn, is consistent with the hypothesized function of pedal claws in bird ancestors.

  18. Linking social and spatial networks to viral community phylogenetics reveals subtype-specific transmission dynamics in African lions.

    PubMed

    Fountain-Jones, Nicholas M; Packer, Craig; Troyer, Jennifer L; VanderWaal, Kimberly; Robinson, Stacie; Jacquot, Maude; Craft, Meggan E

    2017-10-01

    Heterogeneity within pathogen species can have important consequences for how pathogens transmit across landscapes; however, discerning different transmission routes is challenging. Here, we apply both phylodynamic and phylogenetic community ecology techniques to examine the consequences of pathogen heterogeneity on transmission by assessing subtype-specific transmission pathways in a social carnivore. We use comprehensive social and spatial network data to examine transmission pathways for three subtypes of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV Ple ) in African lions (Panthera leo) at multiple scales in the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. We used FIV Ple molecular data to examine the role of social organization and lion density in shaping transmission pathways and tested to what extent vertical (i.e., father- and/or mother-offspring relationships) or horizontal (between unrelated individuals) transmission underpinned these patterns for each subtype. Using the same data, we constructed subtype-specific FIV Ple co-occurrence networks and assessed what combination of social networks, spatial networks or co-infection best structured the FIV Ple network. While social organization (i.e., pride) was an important component of FIV Ple transmission pathways at all scales, we find that FIV Ple subtypes exhibited different transmission pathways at within- and between-pride scales. A combination of social and spatial networks, coupled with consideration of subtype co-infection, was likely to be important for FIV Ple transmission for the two major subtypes, but the relative contribution of each factor was strongly subtype-specific. Our study provides evidence that pathogen heterogeneity is important in understanding pathogen transmission, which could have consequences for how endemic pathogens are managed. Furthermore, we demonstrate that community phylogenetic ecology coupled with phylodynamic techniques can reveal insights into the differential evolutionary pressures acting

  19. Early Visual Cortex Dynamics during Top-Down Modulated Shifts of Feature-Selective Attention.

    PubMed

    Müller, Matthias M; Trautmann, Mireille; Keitel, Christian

    2016-04-01

    Shifting attention from one color to another color or from color to another feature dimension such as shape or orientation is imperative when searching for a certain object in a cluttered scene. Most attention models that emphasize feature-based selection implicitly assume that all shifts in feature-selective attention underlie identical temporal dynamics. Here, we recorded time courses of behavioral data and steady-state visual evoked potentials (SSVEPs), an objective electrophysiological measure of neural dynamics in early visual cortex to investigate temporal dynamics when participants shifted attention from color or orientation toward color or orientation, respectively. SSVEPs were elicited by four random dot kinematograms that flickered at different frequencies. Each random dot kinematogram was composed of dashes that uniquely combined two features from the dimensions color (red or blue) and orientation (slash or backslash). Participants were cued to attend to one feature (such as color or orientation) and respond to coherent motion targets of the to-be-attended feature. We found that shifts toward color occurred earlier after the shifting cue compared with shifts toward orientation, regardless of the original feature (i.e., color or orientation). This was paralleled in SSVEP amplitude modulations as well as in the time course of behavioral data. Overall, our results suggest different neural dynamics during shifts of attention from color and orientation and the respective shifting destinations, namely, either toward color or toward orientation.

  20. Design and dynamic simulation of a fixed pitch 56 kW wind turbine drive train with a continuously variable transmission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallo, C.; Kasuba, R.; Pintz, A.; Spring, J.

    1986-01-01

    The dynamic analysis of a horizontal axis fixed pitch wind turbine generator (WTG) rated at 56 kW is discussed. A mechanical Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT) was incorporated in the drive train to provide variable speed operation capability. One goal of the dynamic analysis was to determine if variable speed operation, by means of a mechanical CVT, is capable of capturing the transient power in the WTG/wind environment. Another goal was to determine the extent of power regulation possible with CVT operation.

  1. Predicting Reading Difficulty in First Grade Using Dynamic Assessment of Decoding in Early Kindergarten: A Large-Scale Longitudinal Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Petersen, Douglas B.; Allen, Melissa M.; Spencer, Trina D.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine and compare the classification accuracy of early static prereading measures and early dynamic assessment reading measures administered to 600 kindergarten students. At the beginning of kindergarten, all of the participants were administered two commonly used static prereading measures. The participants were…

  2. Who acquires infection from whom and how? Disentangling multi-host and multi-mode transmission dynamics in the ‘elimination’ era

    PubMed Central

    Borlase, Anna; Rudge, James W.

    2017-01-01

    Multi-host infectious agents challenge our abilities to understand, predict and manage disease dynamics. Within this, many infectious agents are also able to use, simultaneously or sequentially, multiple modes of transmission. Furthermore, the relative importance of different host species and modes can itself be dynamic, with potential for switches and shifts in host range and/or transmission mode in response to changing selective pressures, such as those imposed by disease control interventions. The epidemiology of such multi-host, multi-mode infectious agents thereby can involve a multi-faceted community of definitive and intermediate/secondary hosts or vectors, often together with infectious stages in the environment, all of which may represent potential targets, as well as specific challenges, particularly where disease elimination is proposed. Here, we explore, focusing on examples from both human and animal pathogen systems, why and how we should aim to disentangle and quantify the relative importance of multi-host multi-mode infectious agent transmission dynamics under contrasting conditions, and ultimately, how this can be used to help achieve efficient and effective disease control. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’. PMID:28289259

  3. Application of Serological Tools and Spatial Analysis to Investigate Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Highland Areas of Southwest Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Lynch, Caroline A.; Cook, Jackie; Nanyunja, Sarah; Bruce, Jane; Bhasin, Amit; Drakeley, Chris; Roper, Cally; Pearce, Richard; Rwakimari, John B.; Abeku, Tarekegn A.; Corran, Patrick; Cox, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    Serological markers, combined with spatial analysis, offer a comparatively more sensitive means by which to measure and detect foci of malaria transmission in highland areas than traditional malariometric indicators. Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence, seroprevalence, and seroconversion rate to P. falciparum merozoite surface protein-119 (MSP-119) were measured in a cross-sectional survey to determine differences in transmission between altitudinal strata. Clusters of P. falciparum parasite prevalence and high antibody responses to MSP-119 were detected and compared. Results show that P. falciparum prevalence and seroprevalence generally decreased with increasing altitude. However, transmission was heterogeneous with hotspots of prevalence and/or seroprevalence detected in both highland and highland fringe altitudes, including a serological hotspot at 2,200 m. Results demonstrate that seroprevalence can be used as an additional tool to identify hotspots of malaria transmission that might be difficult to detect using traditional cross-sectional parasite surveys or through vector studies. Our study findings identify ways in which malaria prevention and control can be more effectively targeted in highland or low transmission areas via serological measures. These tools will become increasingly important for countries with an elimination agenda and/or where malaria transmission is becoming patchy and focal, but receptivity to malaria transmission remains high. PMID:27022156

  4. Negative Relational Schemas Predict the Trajectory of Coercive Dynamics During Early Childhood

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Justin D.; Dishion, Thomas J.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Wilson, Melvin N.

    2014-01-01

    Coercive family processes are germane to the development of problem behaviors in early childhood, yet the cognitive and affective underpinnings are not well understood. We hypothesized that one antecedent of early coercive interactions is the caregiver’s implicit affective attitudes toward the child, which in this article are termed relational schemas. Relational schemas have previously been linked to coercion and problem behaviors, but there has yet to be an examination of the association between relational schemas and trajectories of coercion during early childhood. We examined 731 indigent caregiver-child dyads (49% female children) from a randomized intervention trial of the Family Check-Up. Predominantly biological mothers participated. A speech sample was used to assess relational schemas at age 2. Coercive interactions were assessed observationally each year between ages 2 and 4. Caregiver and teacher reports of children’s oppositional and aggressive behaviors were collected at age 7.5 and 8.5. Path analysis revealed that negative relational schemas were associated with less steep declines in coercion during this period, which in turn were predictive of ratings of oppositional and aggressive behaviors at age 7.5/8.5 after controlling for baseline levels, positive relational schemas, child gender, ethnicity, and cumulative risk. Intervention condition assignment did not moderate this relationship, suggesting the results represent a naturally occurring process. Given the link between persistent early coercion and later deleterious outcomes, relational schemas that maintain and amplify coercive dynamics represent a potential target for early intervention programs designed to improve parent–child relationships. PMID:25208813

  5. A longitudinal twin study of physical aggression during early childhood: evidence for a developmentally dynamic genome.

    PubMed

    Lacourse, E; Boivin, M; Brendgen, M; Petitclerc, A; Girard, A; Vitaro, F; Paquin, S; Ouellet-Morin, I; Dionne, G; Tremblay, R E

    2014-09-01

    Physical aggression (PA) tends to have its onset in infancy and to increase rapidly in frequency. Very little is known about the genetic and environmental etiology of PA development during early childhood. We investigated the temporal pattern of genetic and environmental etiology of PA during this crucial developmental period. Participants were 667 twin pairs, including 254 monozygotic and 413 dizygotic pairs, from the ongoing longitudinal Quebec Newborn Twin Study. Maternal reports of PA were obtained from three waves of data at 20, 32 and 50 months. These reports were analysed using a biometric Cholesky decomposition and linear latent growth curve model. The best-fitting Cholesky model revealed developmentally dynamic effects, mostly genetic attenuation and innovation. The contribution of genetic factors at 20 months substantially decreased over time, while new genetic effects appeared later on. The linear latent growth curve model revealed a significant moderate increase in PA from 20 to 50 months. Two separate sets of uncorrelated genetic factors accounted for the variation in initial level and growth rate. Non-shared and shared environments had no effect on the stability, initial status and growth rate in PA. Genetic factors underlie PA frequency and stability during early childhood; they are also responsible for initial status and growth rate in PA. The contribution of shared environment is modest, and perhaps limited, as it appears only at 50 months. Future research should investigate the complex nature of these dynamic genetic factors through genetic-environment correlation (r GE) and interaction (G×E) analyses.

  6. Analysis of early thrombus dynamics in a humanized mouse laser injury model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Weiwei; Lindsey, John P; Chen, Jianchun; Diacovo, Thomas G; King, Michael R

    2014-01-01

    Platelet aggregation and thrombus formation at the site of injury is a dynamic process that involves the continuous addition of new platelets as well as thrombus rupture. In the early stages of hemostasis (within minutes after vessel injury) this process can be visualized by transfusing fluorescently labeled human platelets and observing their deposition and detachment. These two counterbalancing events help the developing thrombus reach a steady-state morphology, where it is large enough to cover the injured vessel surface but not too large to form a severe thrombotic occlusion. In this study, the spatial and temporal aspects of early stage thrombus dynamics which result from laser-induced injury on arterioles of cremaster muscle in the humanized mouse were visualized using fluorescent microscopy. It was found that rolling platelets show preference for the upstream region while tethering/detaching platelets were primarily found downstream. It was also determined that the platelet deposition rate is relatively steady, whereas the effective thrombus coverage area does not increase at a constant rate. By introducing a new method to graphically represent the real time in vivo physiological shear stress environment, we conclude that the thrombus continuously changes shape by regional growth and decay, and neither dominates in the high shear stress region.

  7. Quantitative Evaluation of Tumor Early Response to a Vascular-Disrupting Agent with Dynamic PET.

    PubMed

    Guo, Ning; Zhang, Fan; Zhang, Xiaomeng; Guo, Jinxia; Lang, Lixin; Kiesewetter, Dale O; Niu, Gang; Li, Quanzheng; Chen, Xiaoyuan

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the early response of tumors to a vascular-disrupting agent (VDA) VEGF121/recombinant toxin gelonin (rGel) using dynamic [(18)F]FPPRGD2 positron emission tomography (PET) and kinetic parameter estimation. Two tumor xenograft models: U87MG (highly vascularized) and A549 (moderately vascularized), were selected, and both were randomized into treatment and control groups. Sixty-minute dynamic PET scans with [(18)F]FPPRGD2 that targets to integrin αvβ3 were performed at days 0 (baseline), 1, and 3 since VEGF121/rGel treatment started. Dynamic PET-derived binding potential (BPND) and parametric maps were compared with tumor uptake (%ID/g) and the static PET image at 1 h after the tracer administration. The growth of U87MG tumor was obviously delayed upon VEGF121/rGel treatment. A549 tumor was not responsive to the same treatment. BPND of treated U87MG tumors decreased significantly at day 1 (p < 0.05), and the difference was more significant at day 3 (p < 0.01), compared with the control group. However, the tracer uptake (%ID/g) derived from static images at 1-h time point did not show significant difference between the treated and control tumors until day 3. Little difference in tracer uptake (%ID/g) or BPND was found between treated and control A549 tumors. Considering the tracer retention in tumor and the slower clearance due to damaged tumor vasculature after treatment, BPND representing the actual specific binding portion appears to be more sensitive and accurate than the semiquantitative parameters (such as %ID/g) derived from static images to assess the early response of tumor to VDA treatment. Quantitative analysis based on dynamic PET with [(18)F]FPPRGD2 shows advantages in distinguishing effective from ineffective treatment during the course of VEGF121/rGel therapy at early stage and is therefore more sensitive in assessing therapy response than static PET.

  8. Early Holocene to present landscape dynamics of the tectonic lakes of west-central Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castillo, Miguel; Muñoz-Salinas, Esperanza; Arce, José Luis; Roy, Priyadarsi

    2017-12-01

    Paleoclimatic reconstructions from lake sediments of central Mexico indicate that the environmental conditions in the Holocene have oscillated from cool-dry to warm-wet, thus, landscape erosion rates have been modified accordingly. The Cenozoic tectonics and volcanic activity of west-central Mexico have produced a set of lakes in warmer and drier conditions compared to lakes of central Mexico. Nevertheless, the Holocene landscape dynamics for this area remains understudied. Using age-depth models, OSL and multi-element chemistry analysis of sediments in the lakes of San Marcos and Sayula we explore the landscape dynamics from early Holocene present of west-central Mexico. Our results indicate that the sedimentation rates in San Marcos Lake notably increased from 240 yr BP to the present. Since AD 1950 the sedimentation rate in Sayula Lake rose fourfold the rates of the last 2000 years. Analysis of OSL and chemistry of major elements of sediments indicates that IRSL/BLSL strongly correlates with Ti/Al (R2 = 0.93) and with the mean monthly rainfall (R2 = 0.70). We propose that the IRSL/BLSL can be used as a proxy to infer past changes in landscape dynamics. Analysis of climatic data from the 1950s to present indicates that rainfall, and consequently water runoff, is enhanced in summers free of ENSO conditions. Extreme one-day rainfall can, however, exceed mean seasonal rainfall and occur in all phases of ENSO. Droughts are particularly severe in the phase of La Niña. Our results indicate that the erosion rate in San Marcos Lake was high from ∼8000 to ∼7000 yr BP in a period coinciding with the advance and recession of glaciers in Central Mexico, however, the erosion rates in the last 165 years have surpassed the rates of the early to mid-Holocene. By constraining the age of sediment and using environmental proxies such as the Ti/Al and IRSL/BLSL from lake sediments of Sayula and San Marcos we present the first model of landscape dynamics of this part of Mexico

  9. Carbon Cycle Dynamics through the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum: Orbital Couplings to Lacustrine Cycling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosengard, S. Z.; Grogan, D. S.; Whiteside, J. H.; van Keuren, M.; Musher, D.

    2010-12-01

    The early Eocene represents the most recent hothouse climate state of Earth history, a period during which Earth’s surface temperatures warmed and reached a steady peak at the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), 53.5-50 Ma. Interspersed through the primary warming interval were several hyperthermals, or rapid peaks in surface temperature and pulses of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, followed by rapid declines, lasting 10^4 to 10^5 years. Various hypotheses have been offered to explain the climatic triggers during the hothouse interval, including changes in ocean circulation, methane release from hydrates, volcanism, and turnover of terrestrial organic matter, implicating various couplings and feedbacks in the global carbon cycle. The present study investigates the prevailing changes in carbon cycle dynamics that occurred during a specific subinterval of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum. We sampled a carbon-rich 300-ft ( 1100 kyr) section of lacustrine Green River Formation sediments from the TOSCO core in the Uinta Basin at a one-foot resolution for organic carbon content and δ^{13}C. The compiled data comprise a high-resolution profile of total organic carbon and isotopic organic carbon composition through the section, showing cyclic patterns that we hypothesize reflect orbital signals. Bulk isotopic carbon and shale oil measurements from an earlier Fischer Assay across TOSCO’s entire 1030-ft core were then filtered using the expected frequency of a 23-kyr precession cycle. The overlaid cycles reveal δ^{13}C and oil content to be anti-phase through the 300-ft section, except for an interval of 50 feet (180 kyr) from the Mahogany Zone to the B-groove of the core, where the two measurements are in-phase. Given that shale oil, a proxy for lake primary productivity and carbon burial, and δ^{13}C typically correlate inversely, this short, 180-kyr interval of in-phase variation suggests a significant alteration in the local carbon cycle. These preliminary

  10. Climatic fluctuations and malaria transmission dynamics, prior to elimination, in Guna Yala, República de Panamá.

    PubMed

    Hurtado, Lisbeth Amarilis; Calzada, José E; Rigg, Chystrie A; Castillo, Milagros; Chaves, Luis Fernando

    2018-02-20

    Malaria has historically been entrenched in indigenous populations of the República de Panamá. This scenario occurs despite the fact that successful methods for malaria elimination were developed during the creation of the Panamá Canal. Today, most malaria cases in the República de Panamá affect the Gunas, an indigenous group, which mainly live in autonomous regions of eastern Panamá. Over recent decades several malaria outbreaks have affected the Gunas, and one hypothesis is that such outbreaks could have been exacerbated by climate change, especially by anomalous weather patterns driven by the EL Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Monthly malaria cases in Guna Yala (1998-2016) were autocorrelated up to 2 months of lag, likely reflecting parasite transmission cycles between humans and mosquitoes, and cyclically for periods of 4 months that might reflect relapses of Plasmodium vivax, the dominant malaria parasite transmitted in Panamá. Moreover, malaria case number was positively associated (P < 0.05) with rainfall (7 months of lag), and negatively with the El Niño 4 index (15 months of lag) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI (8 months of lag), the sign and magnitude of these associations likely related to the impacts of weather patterns and vegetation on the ecology of Anopheles albimanus, the main malaria vector in Guna Yala. Interannual cycles, of approximately 4-year periods, in monthly malaria case numbers were associated with the El Niño 4 index, a climatic index associated with weather and vegetation dynamics in Guna Yala at seasonal and interannual time scales. The results showed that ENSO, rainfall and NDVI were associated with the number of malaria cases in Guna Yala during the study period. These results highlight the vulnerability of Guna populations to malaria, an infection sensitive to climate change, and call for further studies about weather impacts on malaria vector ecology, as well as the association of malaria

  11. Fault prevention by early stage symptoms detection for automatic vehicle transmission using pattern recognition and curve fitting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balbin, Jessie R.; Cruz, Febus Reidj G.; Abu, Jon Ervin A.; Siño, Carlo G.; Ubaldo, Paolo E.; Zulueta, Christelle Jianne T.

    2017-06-01

    Automobiles have become essential parts of our everyday lives. It can correlate many factors that may affect a vehicle primarily those which may inconvenient or in some cases harm lives or properties. Thus, focusing on detecting an automatic transmission vehicle engine, body and other parts that cause vibration and sound may help prevent car problems using MATLAB. By using sound, vibration, and temperature sensors to detect the defects of the car and with the help of the transmitter and receiver to gather data wirelessly, it is easy to install on to the vehicle. A technique utilized from Toyota Balintawak Philippines that every car is treated as panels(a, b, c, d, and e) 'a' being from the hood until the front wheel of the car and 'e' the rear shield to the back of the car, this was applied on how to properly place the sensors so that precise data could be gathered. Data gathered would be compared to the normal graph taken from the normal status or performance of a vehicle, data that would surpass 50% of the normal graph would be considered that a problem has occurred. The system is designed to prevent car accidents by determining the current status or performance of the vehicle, also keeping people away from harm.

  12. Dynamics, chemical properties and bioavailability of DOC in an early successional catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Risse-Buhl, U.; Hagedorn, F.; Dümig, A.; Gessner, M. O.; Schaaf, W.; Nii-Annang, S.; Gerull, L.; Mutz, M.

    2013-01-01

    The dynamics of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) have been intensively studied in mature ecosystems, but little is known about DOC dynamics and the significance of DOC as a substrate for microbial activity in early-successional catchments. We determined the concentration, chemical composition, source, radiocarbon age, and bioavailability of DOC along the hydrological flow path from soil solution to a downstream pond in a recently constructed catchment (Chicken Creek Catchment, Germany). Soil solution, upwelling ground water, subsurface water in an alluvial fan, and pond water all had high DOC concentrations (averages of 6.0-11.6 mg DOC L-1), despite small carbon stocks in either vegetation or soil of the early-successional catchment. The mean 14C age of DOC in upwelling ground water was 2600 to 2800 yr. Solid-state CPMAS 13C NMR revealed a higher proportion of aromatic compounds (32%) and a lower proportion of carbohydrates (33%) in upwelling ground water than in pond water (18% and 45%, respectively). The 14C age and 13C NMR spectra suggest that DOC was partly mobilized from charred organic matter of the Quaternary substrate. In an experimental 70-days incubation experiment, 20% of the total DOC was found to be bioavailable, irrespective of the water type. Origin of microbial communities (enriched from soil, stream sediment or pond water) had only marginal effects on overall DOC utilization. Overall, these data suggest that the old DOC can support microbial activity during early ecosystem succession to some extent, although the largest fraction is recalcitrant DOC that is exported from the catchment once it has been mobilized.

  13. Changes in mitochondrial dynamics during ceramide-induced cardiomyocyte early apoptosis.

    PubMed

    Parra, Valentina; Eisner, Veronica; Chiong, Mario; Criollo, Alfredo; Moraga, Francisco; Garcia, Alejandra; Härtel, Steffen; Jaimovich, Enrique; Zorzano, Antonio; Hidalgo, Cecilia; Lavandero, Sergio

    2008-01-15

    In cells, mitochondria are organized as a network of interconnected organelles that fluctuate between fission and fusion events (mitochondrial dynamics). This process is associated with cell death. We investigated whether activation of apoptosis with ceramides affects mitochondrial dynamics and promotes mitochondrial fission in cardiomyocytes. Neonatal rat cardiomyocytes were incubated with C(2)-ceramide or the inactive analog dihydro-C(2)-ceramide for up to 6 h. Three-dimensional images of cells loaded with mitotracker green were obtained by confocal microscopy. Dynamin-related protein-1 (Drp-1) and mitochondrial fission protein 1 (Fis1) distribution and levels were studied by immunofluorescence and western blot. Mitochondrial membrane potential (DeltaPsi(m)) and cytochrome c (cyt c) distribution were used as indexes of early activation of apoptosis. Cell viability and DNA fragmentation were determined by propidium iodide staining/flow cytometry, whereas cytotoxicity was evaluated by lactic dehydrogenase activity. To decrease the levels of the mitochondrial fusion protein mitofusin 2, we used an antisense adenovirus (AsMfn2). C(2)-ceramide, but not dihydro-C(2)-ceramide, promoted rapid fragmentation of the mitochondrial network in a concentration- and time-dependent manner. C(2)-ceramide also increased mitochondrial Drp-1 and Fis1 content, Drp-1 colocalization with Fis1, and caused early activation of apoptosis. AsMfn2 accentuated the decrease in DeltaPsi(m) and cyt c redistribution induced by C(2)-ceramide. Doxorubicin, which induces cardiomyopathy and apoptosis through ceramide generation, also stimulated mitochondrial fragmentation. Ceramides stimulate mitochondrial fission and this event is associated with early activation of cardiomyocyte apoptosis.

  14. Role of ice sheet dynamics in the collapse of the early-Holocene Laurentide Ice Sheet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matero, I. S. O.; Gregoire, L. J.; Cornford, S. L.; Ivanovic, R. F.

    2017-12-01

    The last stage of the deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the early Holocene Thermal Maximum ( 9000 to 7000 years ago) provides an analogy and insight to the possible responses of contemporary ice sheets in a warming climate. What makes LIS particularly interesting is that meltwater from the collapse of an ice saddle over Hudson Bay was recently shown to be the primary forcing for the period of abrupt northern hemisphere cooling known as the 8.2 ka event. The evolution of the LIS during this period was likely influenced by its interaction with marginal lakes and the ocean, and its major ice stream, which exported ice towards Hudson Strait. Accurately simulating the early Holocene LIS evolution thus requires a model such as BISICLES, capable of accurately and efficiently resolving ice stream dynamics and grounding line migration thanks to the combined use of higher order physics and adaptive mesh refinement. We drive the BISICLES model using a positive degree day mass balance scheme with monthly precipitation and temperature from the HadCM3 climate model under climatic conditions from 10,000 to 8,000 years ago. We test the effect of varying the initial topographies and ice thicknesses from different timeslices in the ICE-6Gc reconstruction. We also test different parameterisations for the basal friction based on the thicknesses of the underlying sediments. These simulations evaluate the role of the Hudson Strait ice stream, ice sheet dynamics and interactions with the adjacent proglacial Lake Agassiz and North Atlantic Ocean in the collapse of the LIS. Our results highlight that the choice of parameterisation for basal friction has major effects on ice sheet dynamics and evolution.

  15. Transgenerational transmission of a stress-coping phenotype programmed by early-life stress in the Japanese quail

    PubMed Central

    Zimmer, Cédric; Larriva, Maria; Boogert, Neeltje J.; Spencer, Karen A.

    2017-01-01

    An interesting aspect of developmental programming is the existence of transgenerational effects that influence offspring characteristics and performance later in life. These transgenerational effects have been hypothesized to allow individuals to cope better with predictable environmental fluctuations and thus facilitate adaptation to changing environments. Here, we test for the first time how early-life stress drives developmental programming and transgenerational effects of maternal exposure to early-life stress on several phenotypic traits in their offspring in a functionally relevant context using a fully factorial design. We manipulated pre- and/or post-natal stress in both Japanese quail mothers and offspring and examined the consequences for several stress-related traits in the offspring generation. We show that pre-natal stress experienced by the mother did not simply affect offspring phenotype but resulted in the inheritance of the same stress-coping traits in the offspring across all phenotypic levels that we investigated, shaping neuroendocrine, physiological and behavioural traits. This may serve mothers to better prepare their offspring to cope with later environments where the same stressors are experienced. PMID:28387355

  16. Understanding the early dynamics of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreak in Ontario using the incidence decay and exponential adjustment (IDEA) model.

    PubMed

    Greer, Amy L; Spence, Kelsey; Gardner, Emma

    2017-01-05

    The United States swine industry was first confronted with porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) in 2013. In young pigs, the virus is highly pathogenic and the associated morbidity and mortality has a significant negative impact on the swine industry. We have applied the IDEA model to better understand the 2014 PEDV outbreak in Ontario, Canada. Using our simple, 2-parameter IDEA model, we have evaluated the early epidemic dynamics of PEDV on Ontario swine farms. We estimated the best-fit R 0 and control parameter (d) for the between farm transmission component of the outbreak by fitting the model to publically available cumulative incidence data. We used maximum likelihood to compare model fit estimates for different combinations of the R 0 and d parameters. Using our initial findings from the iterative fitting procedure, we projected the time course of the epidemic using only a subset of the early epidemic data. The IDEA model projections showed excellent agreement with the observed data based on a 7-day generation time estimate. The best-fit estimate for R 0 was 1.87 (95% CI: 1.52 - 2.34) and for the control parameter (d) was 0.059 (95% CI: 0.022 - 0.117). Using data from the first three generations of the outbreak, our iterative fitting procedure suggests that R 0 and d had stabilized sufficiently to project the time course of the outbreak with reasonable accuracy. The emergence and spread of PEDV represents an important agricultural emergency. The virus presents a significant ongoing threat to the Canadian swine industry. Developing an understanding of the important epidemiological characteristics and disease transmission dynamics of a novel pathogen such as PEDV is critical for helping to guide the implementation of effective, efficient, and economically feasible disease control and prevention strategies that are able to help decrease the impact of an outbreak.

  17. Identifying early-warning signals of critical transitions with strong noise by dynamical network markers

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Rui; Chen, Pei; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Chen, Luonan

    2015-01-01

    Identifying early-warning signals of a critical transition for a complex system is difficult, especially when the target system is constantly perturbed by big noise, which makes the traditional methods fail due to the strong fluctuations of the observed data. In this work, we show that the critical transition is not traditional state-transition but probability distribution-transition when the noise is not sufficiently small, which, however, is a ubiquitous case in real systems. We present a model-free computational method to detect the warning signals before such transitions. The key idea behind is a strategy: “making big noise smaller” by a distribution-embedding scheme, which transforms the data from the observed state-variables with big noise to their distribution-variables with small noise, and thus makes the traditional criteria effective because of the significantly reduced fluctuations. Specifically, increasing the dimension of the observed data by moment expansion that changes the system from state-dynamics to probability distribution-dynamics, we derive new data in a higher-dimensional space but with much smaller noise. Then, we develop a criterion based on the dynamical network marker (DNM) to signal the impending critical transition using the transformed higher-dimensional data. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in biological, ecological and financial systems. PMID:26647650

  18. Visualization of early events in acetic acid denaturation of HIV-1 protease: a molecular dynamics study.

    PubMed

    Borkar, Aditi Narendra; Rout, Manoj Kumar; Hosur, Ramakrishna V

    2011-01-01

    Protein denaturation plays a crucial role in cellular processes. In this study, denaturation of HIV-1 Protease (PR) was investigated by all-atom MD simulations in explicit solvent. The PR dimer and monomer were simulated separately in 9 M acetic acid (9 M AcOH) solution and water to study the denaturation process of PR in acetic acid environment. Direct visualization of the denaturation dynamics that is readily available from such simulations has been presented. Our simulations in 9 M AcOH reveal that the PR denaturation begins by separation of dimer into intact monomers and it is only after this separation that the monomer units start denaturing. The denaturation of the monomers is flagged off by the loss of crucial interactions between the α-helix at C-terminal and surrounding β-strands. This causes the structure to transit from the equilibrium dynamics to random non-equilibrating dynamics. Residence time calculations indicate that denaturation occurs via direct interaction of the acetic acid molecules with certain regions of the protein in 9 M AcOH. All these observations have helped to decipher a picture of the early events in acetic acid denaturation of PR and have illustrated that the α-helix and the β-sheet at the C-terminus of a native and functional PR dimer should maintain both the stability and the function of the enzyme and thus present newer targets for blocking PR function.

  19. Adherence to Early Antiretroviral Therapy: Results From HPTN 052, a Phase III, Multinational Randomized Trial of ART to Prevent HIV-1 Sexual Transmission in Serodiscordant Couples.

    PubMed

    Safren, Steven A; Mayer, Kenneth H; Ou, San-San; McCauley, Marybeth; Grinsztejn, Beatriz; Hosseinipour, Mina C; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran; Gamble, Theresa; Hoffman, Irving; Celentano, David; Chen, Ying Qing; Cohen, Myron S

    2015-06-01

    Combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-1-infected individuals prevents sexual transmission if viral load is suppressed. Participants were HIV-1-infected partners randomized to early ART (CD4 350-550) in HPTN052 (n = 886, median follow-up = 2.1 years), a clinical trial of early ART to prevent sexual transmission of HIV-1 in serodiscordant couples at 13 sites in 9 countries. Adherence was assessed through pill count (dichotomized at <95%) and through self-report items. Predictors of adherence were mental health and general health perceptions, substance use, binge drinking, social support, sexual behaviors, and demographics. Viral suppression was defined as HIV plasma viral load <400 copies per milliliter. Adherence counseling and couples' counseling about safer sex were provided. Logistic and linear regression models using generalized estimating equation for repeated measurements were used. Through pill count, 82% of participants were adherent at 1 month and 83.3% at 1 year. Mental health was the only psychosocial variable associated with adherence [pill count, odds ratios (OR) = 1.05, 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 1.00 to 1.11; self-report parameter estimate, OR = 0.02, 95% CI: 0.01 to 0.04], although regional differences emerged. Pill count (OR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.30) and self-report (OR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.14 to 1.77) adherence were associated with viral suppression. Although adherence was high among individuals in stable relationships taking ART for prevention, mental health and adherence covaried. Assessing and intervening on mental health in the context of promoting adherence to ART as prevention should be explored. Adherence and couples' counseling, feedback about viral suppression, and/or altruism may also help explain the magnitude of adherence observed.

  20. The improbable transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi to human: the missing link in the dynamics and control of Chagas disease.

    PubMed

    Nouvellet, Pierre; Dumonteil, Eric; Gourbière, Sébastien

    2013-11-01

    Chagas disease has a major impact on human health in Latin America and is becoming of global concern due to international migrations. Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of the disease, is one of the rare human parasites transmitted by the feces of its vector, as it is unable to reach the salivary gland of the insect. This stercorarian transmission is notoriously poorly understood, despite its crucial role in the ecology and evolution of the pathogen and the disease. The objective of this study was to quantify the probability of T. cruzi vectorial transmission to humans, and to use such an estimate to predict human prevalence from entomological data. We developed several models of T. cruzi transmission to estimate the probability of transmission from vector to host. Using datasets from the literature, we estimated the probability of transmission per contact with an infected triatomine to be 5.8 × 10(-4) (95%CI: [2.6 ; 11.0] × 10(-4)). This estimate was consistent across triatomine species, robust to variations in other parameters, and corresponded to 900-4,000 contacts per case. Our models subsequently allowed predicting human prevalence from vector abundance and infection rate in 7/10 independent datasets covering various triatomine species and epidemiological situations. This low probability of T. cruzi transmission reflected well the complex and unlikely mechanism of transmission via insect feces, and allowed predicting human prevalence from basic entomological data. Although a proof of principle study would now be valuable to validate our models' predictive ability in an even broader range of entomological and ecological settings, our quantitative estimate could allow switching the evaluation of disease risk and vector control program from purely entomological indexes to parasitological measures, as commonly done for other major vector borne diseases. This might lead to different quantitative perspectives as these indexes are well known not to be

  1. The Improbable Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi to Human: The Missing Link in the Dynamics and Control of Chagas Disease

    PubMed Central

    Nouvellet, Pierre; Dumonteil, Eric; Gourbière, Sébastien

    2013-01-01

    Chagas disease has a major impact on human health in Latin America and is becoming of global concern due to international migrations. Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of the disease, is one of the rare human parasites transmitted by the feces of its vector, as it is unable to reach the salivary gland of the insect. This stercorarian transmission is notoriously poorly understood, despite its crucial role in the ecology and evolution of the pathogen and the disease. The objective of this study was to quantify the probability of T. cruzi vectorial transmission to humans, and to use such an estimate to predict human prevalence from entomological data. We developed several models of T. cruzi transmission to estimate the probability of transmission from vector to host. Using datasets from the literature, we estimated the probability of transmission per contact with an infected triatomine to be 5.8×10−4 (95%CI: [2.6 ; 11.0]×10−4). This estimate was consistent across triatomine species, robust to variations in other parameters, and corresponded to 900–4,000 contacts per case. Our models subsequently allowed predicting human prevalence from vector abundance and infection rate in 7/10 independent datasets covering various triatomine species and epidemiological situations. This low probability of T. cruzi transmission reflected well the complex and unlikely mechanism of transmission via insect feces, and allowed predicting human prevalence from basic entomological data. Although a proof of principle study would now be valuable to validate our models' predictive ability in an even broader range of entomological and ecological settings, our quantitative estimate could allow switching the evaluation of disease risk and vector control program from purely entomological indexes to parasitological measures, as commonly done for other major vector borne diseases. This might lead to different quantitative perspectives as these indexes are well known not to be

  2. Aversive Stimuli Differentially Modulate Real-Time Dopamine Transmission Dynamics within the Nucleus Accumbens Core and Shell

    PubMed Central

    Badrinarayan, Aneesha; Wescott, Seth A.; Vander Weele, Caitlin M.; Saunders, Benjamin T.; Couturier, Brenann E.; Maren, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    Although fear directs adaptive behavioral responses, how aversive cues recruit motivational neural circuitry is poorly understood. Specifically, while it is known that dopamine (DA) transmission within the nucleus accumbens (NAc) is imperative for mediating appetitive motivated behaviors, its role in aversive behavior is controversial. It has been proposed that divergent phasic DA transmission following aversive events may correspond to segregated mesolimbic dopamine pathways; however, this prediction has never been tested. Here, we used fast-scan cyclic voltammetry to examine real-time DA transmission within NAc core and shell projection systems in response to a fear-evoking cue. In male Sprague Dawley rats, we first demonstrate that a fear cue results in decreased DA transmission within the NAc core, but increased transmission within the NAc shell. We examined whether these changes in DA transmission could be attributed to modulation of phasic transmission evoked by cue presentation. We found that cue presentation decreased the probability of phasic DA release in the core, while the same cue enhanced the amplitude of release events in the NAc shell. We further characterized the relationship between freezing and both changes in DA as well as local pH. Although we found that both analytes were significantly correlated with freezing in the NAc across the session, changes in DA were not strictly associated with freezing while basic pH shifts in the core more consistently followed behavioral expression. Together, these results provide the first real-time neurochemical evidence that aversive cues differentially modulate distinct DA projection systems. PMID:23136417

  3. Predicting optimal transmission investment in malaria parasites

    PubMed Central

    Greischar, Megan A.; Mideo, Nicole; Read, Andrew F.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.

    2016-01-01

    In vertebrate hosts, malaria parasites face a tradeoff between replicating and the production of transmission stages that can be passed onto mosquitoes. This tradeoff is analogous to growth-reproduction tradeoffs in multicellular organisms. We use a mathematical model tailored to the life cycle and dynamics of malaria parasites to identify allocation strategies that maximize cumulative transmission potential to mosquitoes. We show that plastic strategies can substantially outperform fixed allocation because parasites can achieve greater fitness by investing in proliferation early and delaying the production of transmission stages. Parasites should further benefit from restraining transmission investment later in infection, because such a strategy can help maintain parasite numbers in the face of resource depletion. Early allocation decisions are predicted to have the greatest impact on parasite fitness. If the immune response saturates as parasite numbers increase, parasites should benefit from even longer delays prior to transmission investment. The presence of a competing strain selects for consistently lower levels of transmission investment and dramatically increased exploitation of the red blood cell resource. While we provide a detailed analysis of tradeoffs pertaining to malaria life history, our approach for identifying optimal plastic allocation strategies may be broadly applicable. PMID:27271841

  4. Predicting optimal transmission investment in malaria parasites.

    PubMed

    Greischar, Megan A; Mideo, Nicole; Read, Andrew F; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

    2016-07-01

    In vertebrate hosts, malaria parasites face a tradeoff between replicating and the production of transmission stages that can be passed onto mosquitoes. This tradeoff is analogous to growth-reproduction tradeoffs in multicellular organisms. We use a mathematical model tailored to the life cycle and dynamics of malaria parasites to identify allocation strategies that maximize cumulative transmission potential to mosquitoes. We show that plastic strategies can substantially outperform fixed allocation because parasites can achieve greater fitness by investing in proliferation early and delaying the production of transmission stages. Parasites should further benefit from restraining transmission investment later in infection, because such a strategy can help maintain parasite numbers in the face of resource depletion. Early allocation decisions are predicted to have the greatest impact on parasite fitness. If the immune response saturates as parasite numbers increase, parasites should benefit from even longer delays prior to transmission investment. The presence of a competing strain selects for consistently lower levels of transmission investment and dramatically increased exploitation of the red blood cell resource. While we provide a detailed analysis of tradeoffs pertaining to malaria life history, our approach for identifying optimal plastic allocation strategies may be broadly applicable. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  5. The first cases of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in the United States: a serologic investigation demonstrating early transmission

    PubMed Central

    Fry, Alicia M.; Hancock, Kathy; Patel, Minal; Gladden, Matthew; Doshi, Saumil; Blau, Dianna M.; Sugerman, David; Veguilla, Vic; Lu, Xiuhua; Noland, Heather; Bai, Yaohui; Maroufi, Azarnoush; Kao, Annie; Kriner, Paula; Lopez, Karla; Ginsberg, Michele; Jain, Seema; Olsen, Sonja J.; Katz, Jacqueline M.

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Fry et al. (2012) The first cases of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in the United States: a serologic investigation demonstrating early transmission. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 6(3), e48–e53. Background  The first two laboratory‐confirmed cases of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus (H1N1pdm09) infection were detected in San Diego (SD) and Imperial County (IC) in southern California, April 2009. Objectives  To describe H1N1pdm09 infections and transmission early in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Patients/Methods  We identified index case‐patients from SD and IC with polymerase chain reaction (PCR)‐confirmed H1N1pdm09 infections and investigated close contacts for a subset of case‐patients from April 17–May 6, 2009. Acute and convalescent serum was collected. Serologic evidence for H1N1pdm09 infection was determined by microneutralization and hemagglutination inhibition assays. Results  Among 75 close contacts of seven index case‐patients, three reported illness onset prior to patient A or B, including two patient B contacts and a third with no links to patient A or B. Among the 69 close contacts with serum collected >14 days after the onset of index case symptoms, 23 (33%) were seropositive for H1N1pdm09, and 8 (35%) had no fever, cough, or sore throat. Among 15 household contacts, 8 (53%) were seropositive for H1N1pdm09. The proportion of contacts seropositive for H1N1pdm09 was highest in persons aged 5–24 years (50%) and lowest in persons aged ≥50 years (13%) (P = 0·07). Conclusions  By the end of April 2009, before H1N1pdm09 was circulating widely in the community, a third of persons with close contact to confirmed H1N1pdm09 cases had H1N1pdm09 infection in SD and IC. Three unrelated clusters during March 21–30 suggest that transmission of H1N1pdm09 had begun earlier in southern California. PMID:22353441

  6. Physical Processes Dictate Early Biogeochemical Dynamics of Soil Pyrogenic Organic Matter in a Subtropical Forest Ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stuart, Jason M.; Anderson, Russell; Lazzarino, Patrick; Kuehn, Kevin A.; Harvey, Omar R.

    2018-05-01

    Quantifying links between pyOM dynamics, environmental factors and processes is central to predicting ecosystem function and response to future perturbations. In this study, changes in carbon (TC), nitrogen (TN) , pH and relative recalcitrance (R50) for pine- and cordgrass-derived pyOM were measured at 3-6 weeks intervals throughout the first year of burial in the soil. Objectives were to 1) identify key environmental factors and processes driving early-stage pyOM dynamics, and 2) develop quantitative relationships between environmental factors and changes in pyOM properties. The study was conducted in sandy soils of a forested ecosystem in the Longleaf pine range, US with a focus on links between changes in pyOM properties, fire history (FH), cumulative precipitation (Pcum), average temperature (Tavg) and soil residence time (SRT). Pcum, SRT and Tavg were the main factors controlling TC and TN accounting for 77-91% and 64-96% of their respective variability. Fire history, along with Pcum, SRT and Tavg, exhibited significant controlling effects on pyOM, pH and R50 - accounting for 48-91% and 88-93% of respective variability. Volatilization of volatiles and leaching of water-soluble components (in summer) and the sorption of exogenous organic matter (fall through spring) were most plausibly controlling pyOM dynamics in this study. Overall, our results point to climatic and land management factors and physicochemical process as the main drivers of pyOM dynamics in the pine ecosystems of the Southeastern US.

  7. Potential effects of mixed infections in ticks on transmission dynamics of pathogens: comparative analysis of published records

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ginsberg, Howard S.

    2008-01-01

    Ticks are often infected with more than one pathogen, and several field surveys have documented nonrandom levels of coinfection. Levels of coinfection by pathogens in four tick species were analyzed using published infection data. Coinfection patterns of pathogens in field-collected ticks include numerous cases of higher or lower levels of coinfection than would be expected due to chance alone, but the vast majority of these cases can be explained on the basis of vertebrate host associations of the pathogens, without invoking interactions between pathogens within ticks. Nevertheless, some studies have demonstrated antagonistic interactions, and some have suggested potential mutualisms, between pathogens in ticks. Negative or positive interactions between pathogens within ticks can affect pathogen prevalence, and thus transmission patterns. Probabilistic projections suggest that the effect on transmission depends on initial conditions. When the number of tick bites is relatively low (e.g., for ticks biting humans) changes in prevalence in ticks are predicted to have a commensurate effects on pathogen transmission. In contrast, when the number of tick bites is high (e.g., for wild animal hosts) changes in pathogen prevalence in ticks have relatively little effect on levels of transmission to reservoir hosts, and thus on natural transmission cycles.

  8. Single-Genome Sequencing of Hepatitis C Virus in Donor-Recipient Pairs Distinguishes Modes and Models of Virus Transmission and Early Diversification.

    PubMed

    Li, Hui; Stoddard, Mark B; Wang, Shuyi; Giorgi, Elena E; Blair, Lily M; Learn, Gerald H; Hahn, Beatrice H; Alter, Harvey J; Busch, Michael P; Fierer, Daniel S; Ribeiro, Ruy M; Perelson, Alan S; Bhattacharya, Tanmoy; Shaw, George M

    2016-01-01

    Despite the recent development of highly effective anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) drugs, the global burden of this pathogen remains immense. Control or eradication of HCV will likely require the broad application of antiviral drugs and development of an effective vaccine. A precise molecular identification of transmitted/founder (T/F) HCV genomes that lead to productive clinical infection could play a critical role in vaccine research, as it has for HIV-1. However, the replication schema of these two RNA viruses differ substantially, as do viral responses to innate and adaptive host defenses. These differences raise questions as to the certainty of T/F HCV genome inferences, particularly in cases where multiple closely related sequence lineages have been observed. To clarify these issues and distinguish between competing models of early HCV diversification, we examined seven cases of acute HCV infection in humans and chimpanzees, including three examples of virus transmission between linked donors and recipients. Using single-genome sequencing (SGS) of plasma vRNA, we found that inferred T/F sequences in recipients were identical to viral sequences in their respective donors. Early in infection, HCV genomes generally evolved according to a simple model of random evolution where the coalescent corresponded to the T/F sequence. Closely related sequence lineages could be explained by high multiplicity infection from a donor whose viral sequences had undergone a pretransmission bottleneck due to treatment, immune selection, or recent infection. These findings validate SGS, together with mathematical modeling and phylogenetic analysis, as a novel strategy to infer T/F HCV genome sequences. Despite the recent development of highly effective, interferon-sparing anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) drugs, the global burden of this pathogen remains immense. Control or eradication of HCV will likely require the broad application of antiviral drugs and the development of an effective

  9. Aurora A drives early signalling and vesicle dynamics during T-cell activation

    PubMed Central

    Blas-Rus, Noelia; Bustos-Morán, Eugenio; Pérez de Castro, Ignacio; de Cárcer, Guillermo; Borroto, Aldo; Camafeita, Emilio; Jorge, Inmaculada; Vázquez, Jesús; Alarcón, Balbino; Malumbres, Marcos; Martín-Cófreces, Noa B.; Sánchez-Madrid, Francisco

    2016-01-01

    Aurora A is a serine/threonine kinase that contributes to the progression of mitosis by inducing microtubule nucleation. Here we have identified an unexpected role for Aurora A kinase in antigen-driven T-cell activation. We find that Aurora A is phosphorylated at the immunological synapse (IS) during TCR-driven cell contact. Inhibition of Aurora A with pharmacological agents or genetic deletion in human or mouse T cells severely disrupts the dynamics of microtubules and CD3ζ-bearing vesicles at the IS. The absence of Aurora A activity also impairs the activation of early signalling molecules downstream of the TCR and the expression of IL-2, CD25 and CD69. Aurora A inhibition causes delocalized clustering of Lck at the IS and decreases phosphorylation levels of tyrosine kinase Lck, thus indicating Aurora A is required for maintaining Lck active. These findings implicate Aurora A in the propagation of the TCR activation signal. PMID:27091106

  10. Convective radiation fluid-dynamics: formation and early evolution of ultra low-mass objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wuchterl, G.

    2005-12-01

    The formation process of ultra low-mass objects is some kind of extension of the star formation process. The physical changes towards lower mass are discussed by investigating the collapse of cloud cores that are modelled as Bonnor-Ebert spheres. Their collapse is followed by solving the equations of fluid dynamics with radiation and a model of time-dependent convection that has been calibrated to the Sun. For a sequence of cloud-cores with 1 to 0.01 solar masses, evolutionary tracks and isochrones are shown in the mass-radius diagram, the Hertzsprung-Russel diagram and the effective temperature-surface gravity or Kiel diagram. The collapse and the early hydrostatic evolution to ages of few Ma are briefly discussed and compared to observations of objects in Upper Scorpius and the low-mass components of GG Tau.

  11. Dynamics, chemical properties and bioavailability of DOC in an early successional catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Risse-Buhl, U.; Hagedorn, F.; Dümig, A.; Gessner, M. O.; Schaaf, W.; Nii-Annang, S.; Gerull, L.; Mutz, M.

    2013-07-01

    The dynamics of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) have been intensively studied in mature ecosystems, but little is known about DOC dynamics and the significance of DOC as a substrate for microbial activity in early-successional catchments. We determined the concentration, chemical composition, source, radiocarbon age, and bioavailability of DOC along the hydrological flow path from soil solution to a downstream pond in a recently constructed catchment (Chicken Creek Catchment, Germany). Soil solution, upwelling ground water, stream water, subsurface water in an alluvial fan, and pond water all had high DOC concentrations (averages: 6.0-11.6 mg DOC L-1), despite small carbon stocks in both vegetation and soil of the catchment. Solid-state CPMAS 13C NMR of DOC in upwelling ground water revealed a higher proportion of aromatic compounds (32%) and a lower proportion of carbohydrates (33%) than in pond water (18% and 45%, respectively). The average 14C age of DOC in upwelling ground water was 2600 to 2900 yr, while organic matter of the Quaternary substrate of the catchment had a 14C age of 3000 to 16 000 yr. Both the 14C age data and 13C NMR spectra suggest that DOC partly derived from organic matter of the Quaternary substrate (about 40 to 90% of the C in the DOC), indicating that both recent and old C of the DOC can support microbial activity during early ecosystem succession. However, in a 70 day incubation experiment, only about 11% of the total DOC was found to be bioavailable. This proportion was irrespective of the water type. Origin of the microbial communities within the catchment (enriched from soil, stream sediment or pond water) also had only a marginal effect on overall DOC utilization.

  12. Early-Dynamic Positron Emission Tomography (PET)/Computed Tomography and PET Angiography for Endoleak Detection After Endovascular Aneurysm Repair.

    PubMed

    Drescher, Robert; Gühne, Falk; Freesmeyer, Martin

    2017-06-01

    To propose a positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) protocol including early-dynamic and late-phase acquisitions to evaluate graft patency and aneurysm diameter, detect endoleaks, and rule out graft or vessel wall inflammation after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) in one examination without intravenous contrast medium. Early-dynamic PET/CT of the endovascular prosthesis is performed for 180 seconds immediately after intravenous injection of F-18-fluorodeoxyglucose. Data are reconstructed in variable time frames (time periods after tracer injection) to visualize the arterial anatomy and are displayed as PET angiography or fused with CT images. Images are evaluated in view of vascular abnormalities, graft configuration, and tracer accumulation in the aneurysm sac. Whole-body PET/CT is performed 90 to 120 minutes after tracer injection. This protocol for early-dynamic PET/CT and PET angiography has the potential to evaluate vascular diseases, including the diagnosis of complications after endovascular procedures.

  13. Transcriptional Dynamics of LTR Retrotransposons in Early Generation and Ancient Sunflower Hybrids

    PubMed Central

    Ungerer, Mark C.; Kawakami, Takeshi

    2013-01-01

    Hybridization and abiotic stress are natural agents hypothesized to influence activation and proliferation of transposable elements in wild populations. In this report, we examine the effects of these agents on expression dynamics of both quiescent and transcriptionally active sublineages of long terminal repeat (LTR) retrotransposons in wild sunflower species with a notable history of transposable element proliferation. For annual sunflower species Helianthus annuus and H. petiolaris, neither early generation hybridization nor abiotic stress, alone or in combination, induced transcriptional activation of quiescent sublineages of LTR retrotransposons. These treatments also failed to further induce expression of sublineages that are transcriptionally active; instead, expression of active sublineages in F1 and backcross hybrids was nondistinguishable from, or intermediate relative to, parental lines, and abiotic stress generally decreased normalized expression relative to controls. In contrast to findings for early generation hybridization between H. annuus and H. petiolaris, ancient sunflower hybrid species derived from these same two species and which have undergone massive proliferation events of LTR retrotransposons display 2× to 6× higher expression levels of transcriptionally active sublineages relative to parental sunflower species H. annuus and H. petiolaris. Implications and possible explanations for these findings are discussed. PMID:23335122

  14. Dynamic changes in network activations characterize early learning of a natural language.

    PubMed

    Plante, Elena; Patterson, Dianne; Dailey, Natalie S; Kyle, R Almyrde; Fridriksson, Julius

    2014-09-01

    Those who are initially exposed to an unfamiliar language have difficulty separating running speech into individual words, but over time will recognize both words and the grammatical structure of the language. Behavioral studies have used artificial languages to demonstrate that humans are sensitive to distributional information in language input, and can use this information to discover the structure of that language. This is done without direct instruction and learning occurs over the course of minutes rather than days or months. Moreover, learners may attend to different aspects of the language input as their own learning progresses. Here, we examine processing associated with the early stages of exposure to a natural language, using fMRI. Listeners were exposed to an unfamiliar language (Icelandic) while undergoing four consecutive fMRI scans. The Icelandic stimuli were constrained in ways known to produce rapid learning of aspects of language structure. After approximately 4 min of exposure to the Icelandic stimuli, participants began to differentiate between correct and incorrect sentences at above chance levels, with significant improvement between the first and last scan. An independent component analysis of the imaging data revealed four task-related components, two of which were associated with behavioral performance early in the experiment, and two with performance later in the experiment. This outcome suggests dynamic changes occur in the recruitment of neural resources even within the initial period of exposure to an unfamiliar natural language. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Modeling the transmission of community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: a dynamic agent-based simulation.

    PubMed

    Macal, Charles M; North, Michael J; Collier, Nicholson; Dukic, Vanja M; Wegener, Duane T; David, Michael Z; Daum, Robert S; Schumm, Philip; Evans, James A; Wilder, Jocelyn R; Miller, Loren G; Eells, Samantha J; Lauderdale, Diane S

    2014-05-12

    Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has been a deadly pathogen in healthcare settings since the 1960s, but MRSA epidemiology changed since 1990 with new genetically distinct strain types circulating among previously healthy people outside healthcare settings. Community-associated (CA) MRSA strains primarily cause skin and soft tissue infections, but may also cause life-threatening invasive infections. First seen in Australia and the U.S., it is a growing problem around the world. The U.S. has had the most widespread CA-MRSA epidemic, with strain type USA300 causing the great majority of infections. Individuals with either asymptomatic colonization or infection may transmit CA-MRSA to others, largely by skin-to-skin contact. Control measures have focused on hospital transmission. Limited public health education has focused on care for skin infections. We developed a fine-grained agent-based model for Chicago to identify where to target interventions to reduce CA-MRSA transmission. An agent-based model allows us to represent heterogeneity in population behavior, locations and contact patterns that are highly relevant for CA-MRSA transmission and control. Drawing on nationally representative survey data, the model represents variation in sociodemographics, locations, behaviors, and physical contact patterns. Transmission probabilities are based on a comprehensive literature review. Over multiple 10-year runs with one-hour ticks, our model generates temporal and geographic trends in CA-MRSA incidence similar to Chicago from 2001 to 2010. On average, a majority of transmission events occurred in households, and colonized rather than infected agents were the source of the great majority (over 95%) of transmission events. The key findings are that infected people are not the primary source of spread. Rather, the far greater number of colonized individuals must be targeted to reduce transmission. Our findings suggest that current paradigms in MRSA control in

  16. Telomere dynamics in wild brown trout: effects of compensatory growth and early growth investment.

    PubMed

    Näslund, Joacim; Pauliny, Angela; Blomqvist, Donald; Johnsson, Jörgen I

    2015-04-01

    After a period of food deprivation, animals often respond with a period of faster than normal growth. Such responses have been suggested to result in decreased chromosomal maintenance, which in turn may affect the future fitness of an individual. Here, we present a field experiment in which a food deprivation period of 24 days was enforced on fish from a natural population of juvenile brown trout (Salmo trutta) at the start of the high-growth season in spring. The growth of the food-deprived fish and a non-deprived control group was then monitored in the wild during 1 year. Fin tissue samples were taken at the start of the experiment and 1 year after food deprivation to monitor the telomere dynamics, using reduced telomere length as an indicator of maintenance cost. The food-deprived fish showed partial compensatory growth in both mass and length relative to the control group. However, we found no treatment effects on telomere dynamics, suggesting that growth-compensating brown trout juveniles are able to maintain their telomeres during their second year in the stream. However, body size at the start of the experiment, reflecting growth rate during their first year of life, was negatively correlated with change in telomere length over the following year. This result raises the possibility that rapid growth early in life induces delayed costs in cellular maintenance.

  17. Dynamics of Mycobacterium leprae transmission in environmental context: deciphering the role of environment as a potential reservoir.

    PubMed

    Turankar, Ravindra P; Lavania, Mallika; Singh, Mradula; Siva Sai, Krovvidi S R; Jadhav, Rupendra S

    2012-01-01

    Leprosy is a disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae. Various modes of transmission have been suggested for this disease. Transmission and risk of the infection is perhaps related to presence of the infectious cases and is controlled by environmental factors. Evidence suggests that humidity may favor survival of M. leprae in the environment. Several reports show that non-human sources like 'naturally' infected armadillos or monkeys could act as reservoir for M. leprae. Inanimate objects or fomites like articles used by infectious patients may theoretically spread infection. However, it is only through detailed knowledge of the biodiversity and ecology that the importance of this mode of transmission can be fully assessed. Our study focuses here to decipher the role of environment in the transmission of the disease. Two hundred and seven soil samples were collected from a village in endemic area where active cases also resided at the time of sample collection. Slit skin smears were collected from 13 multibacillary (MB) leprosy patients and 12 household contacts of the patients suspected to be hidden cases. DNA and RNA of M. leprae were extracted and amplified using M. leprae specific primers. Seventy-one soil samples showed presence of M. leprae DNA whereas 16S rRNA could be detected in twenty-eight of these samples. Samples, both from the environment and the patients, exhibited the same genotype when tested by single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) typing. Genotype of M. leprae found in the soil and the patients residing in the same area could help in understanding the transmission link in leprosy. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Early Detection of Ureteropelvic Junction Obstruction Using Signal Analysis and Machine Learning: A Dynamic Solution to a Dynamic Problem.

    PubMed

    Blum, Emily S; Porras, Antonio R; Biggs, Elijah; Tabrizi, Pooneh R; Sussman, Rachael D; Sprague, Bruce M; Shalaby-Rana, Eglal; Majd, Massoud; Pohl, Hans G; Linguraru, Marius George

    2017-10-21

    We sought to define features that describe the dynamic information in diuresis renograms for the early detection of clinically significant hydronephrosis caused by ureteropelvic junction obstruction. We studied the diuresis renogram of 55 patients with a mean ± SD age of 75 ± 66 days who had congenital hydronephrosis at initial presentation. Five patients had bilaterally affected kidneys for a total of 60 diuresis renograms. Surgery was performed on 35 kidneys. We extracted 45 features based on curve shape and wavelet analysis from the drainage curves recorded after furosemide administration. The optimal features were selected as the combination that maximized the ROC AUC obtained from a linear support vector machine classifier trained to classify patients as with or without obstruction. Using these optimal features we performed leave 1 out cross validation to estimate the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of our framework. Results were compared to those obtained using post-diuresis drainage half-time and the percent of clearance after 30 minutes. Our framework had 93% accuracy, including 91% sensitivity and 96% specificity, to predict surgical cases. This was a significant improvement over the same accuracy of 82%, including 71% sensitivity and 96% specificity obtained from half-time and 30-minute clearance using the optimal thresholds of 24.57 minutes and 55.77%, respectively. Our machine learning framework significantly improved the diagnostic accuracy of clinically significant hydronephrosis compared to half-time and 30-minute clearance. This aids in the clinical decision making process by offering a tool for earlier detection of severe cases and it has the potential to reduce the number of diuresis renograms required for diagnosis. Copyright © 2018 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Investigation of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission during low-wind conditions in the early phase of the UK 2001 epidemic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mikkelsen, T.; Alexandersen, S.; Astrup, P.; Champion, H. J.; Donaldson, A. I.; Dunkerley, F. N.; Gloster, J.; Sørensen, J. H.; Thykier-Nielsen, S.

    2003-11-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed domesticated and wild animals. The highly contagious nature of FMD is a reflection of the wide range of host species, the enormous quantities of virus liberated by infected animals, the range of excretions and secretions which can be infectious, the stability of the virus in the environment, the multiplicity of routes of infection and the very small doses of the virus that can initiate infection. One of the mechanisms of spread is the carriage of droplets and droplet nuclei exhaled in the breath of infected animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have transmitted disease over a distance of several hundred kilometres. During the 2001 FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to assess the potential for atmospheric dispersion of the disease. The operational value of such modelling is primarily to identify premises which may have been exposed so that the human resources for surveillance and disease control purposes are employed most effectively.

    The paper describes the combined modelling techniques and presents the results obtained of detailed analyses performed during the early stages of the UK 2001 epidemic. This paper investigates the potential for disease spread in relation to two outbreaks (Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall and Prestwick Hall Farm, Ponteland, Northumberland). A separate paper (Gloster et al., 2002) provides a more detailed analysis of the airborne disease transmission in the vicinity of Burnside Farm.

    The combined results are consistent with airborne transmission of disease to livestock in the Heddon-on-the-Wall area. Local topography may have played a significant role in influencing the pattern of disease spread.

  20. Investigation of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission during low-wind conditions in the early phase of the UK 2001 epidemic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mikkelsen, T.; Alexandersen, S.; Astrup, P.; Champion, H. J.; Donaldson, A. I.; Dunkerley, F. N.; Gloster, J.; Sørensen, J. H.; Thykier-Nielsen, S.

    2003-02-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed domesticated and wild animals. The highly contagious nature of FMD is a reflection of the wide range of host species, the enormous quantities of virus liberated by infected animals, the range of excretions and secretions which can be infectious, the stability of the virus in the environment, the multiplicity of routes of infection and the very small doses of the virus that can initiate infection. One of the mechanisms of spread is the carriage of droplets and droplet nuclei exhaled in the breath of infected animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have transmitted disease over a distance of several hundred kilometres. During the 2001 FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to assess the potential for atmospheric dispersion of the disease. The operational value of such modelling is primarily to identify premises which may have been exposed so that the human resources for surveillance and disease control purposes are employed most effectively. The paper describes the combined modelling techniques and presents the results obtained of detailed analyses performed during the early stages of the UK 2001 epidemic. This paper investigates the potential for disease spread in relation to two outbreaks (Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall and Prestwick Hall Farm, Ponteland, Northumberland). A separate paper (Gloster et al., 2002) provides a more detailed analysis of the airborne disease transmission in the vicinity of Burnside Farm. The combined results are consistent with airborne transmission of disease to livestock in the Heddon-on-the Wall area. Local topography may have played a significant role in influencing the pattern of disease spread.

  1. Increased Excitatory Synaptic Transmission of Dentate Granule Neurons in Mice Lacking PSD-95-Interacting Adhesion Molecule Neph2/Kirrel3 during the Early Postnatal Period.

    PubMed

    Roh, Junyeop D; Choi, Su-Yeon; Cho, Yi Sul; Choi, Tae-Yong; Park, Jong-Sil; Cutforth, Tyler; Chung, Woosuk; Park, Hanwool; Lee, Dongsoo; Kim, Myeong-Heui; Lee, Yeunkum; Mo, Seojung; Rhee, Jeong-Seop; Kim, Hyun; Ko, Jaewon; Choi, Se-Young; Bae, Yong Chul; Shen, Kang; Kim, Eunjoon; Han, Kihoon

    2017-01-01

    Copy number variants and point mutations of NEPH2 (also called KIRREL3 ) gene encoding an immunoglobulin (Ig) superfamily adhesion molecule have been linked to autism spectrum disorders, intellectual disability and neurocognitive delay associated with Jacobsen syndrome, but the physiological roles of Neph2 in the mammalian brain remain largely unknown. Neph2 is highly expressed in the dentate granule (DG) neurons of the hippocampus and is localized in both dendrites and axons. It was recently shown that Neph2 is required for the formation of mossy fiber filopodia, the axon terminal structure of DG neurons forming synapses with GABAergic neurons of CA3. In contrast, however, it is unknown whether Neph2 also has any roles in the postsynaptic compartments of DG neurons. We here report that, through its C-terminal PDZ domain-binding motif, Neph2 directly interacts with postsynaptic density (PSD)-95, an abundant excitatory postsynaptic scaffolding protein. Moreover, Neph2 protein is detected in the brain PSD fraction and interacts with PSD-95 in synaptosomal lysates. Functionally, loss of Neph2 in mice leads to age-specific defects in the synaptic connectivity of DG neurons. Specifically, Neph2 -/- mice show significantly increased spontaneous excitatory synaptic events in DG neurons at postnatal week 2 when the endogenous Neph2 protein expression peaks, but show normal excitatory synaptic transmission at postnatal week 3. The evoked excitatory synaptic transmission and synaptic plasticity of medial perforant pathway (MPP)-DG synapses are also normal in Neph2 -/- mice at postnatal week 3, further confirming the age-specific synaptic defects. Together, our results provide some evidence for the postsynaptic function of Neph2 in DG neurons during the early postnatal period, which might be implicated in neurodevelopmental and cognitive disorders caused by NEPH2 mutations.

  2. Dynamic quantification of canopy structure to characterize early plant vigour in wheat genotypes

    PubMed Central

    Duan, T.; Chapman, S.C.; Holland, E.; Rebetzke, G.J.; Guo, Y.; Zheng, B.

    2016-01-01

    Early vigour is an important physiological trait to improve establishment, water-use efficiency, and grain yield for wheat. Phenotyping large numbers of lines is challenging due to the fast growth and development of wheat seedlings. Here we developed a new photo-based workflow to monitor dynamically the growth and development of the wheat canopy of two wheat lines with a contrasting early vigour trait. Multiview images were taken using a ‘vegetation stress’ camera at 2 d intervals from emergence to the sixth leaf stage. Point clouds were extracted using the Multi-View Stereo and Structure From Motion (MVS-SFM) algorithm, and segmented into individual organs using the Octree method, with leaf midribs fitted using local polynomial function. Finally, phenotypic parameters were calculated from the reconstructed point cloud including: tiller and leaf number, plant height, Haun index, phyllochron, leaf length, angle, and leaf elongation rate. There was good agreement between the observed and estimated leaf length (RMSE=8.6mm, R 2=0.98, n=322) across both lines. Significant contrasts of phenotyping parameters were observed between the two lines and were consistent with manual observations. The early vigour line had fewer tillers (2.4±0.6) and larger leaves (308.0±38.4mm and 17.1±2.7mm for leaf length and width, respectively). While the phyllochron of both lines was quite similar, the non-vigorous line had a greater Haun index (more leaves on the main stem) on any date, as the vigorous line had slower development of its first two leaves. The workflow presented in this study provides an efficient method to phenotype individual plants using a low-cost camera (an RGB camera is also suitable) and could be applied in phenotyping for applications in both simulation modelling and breeding. The rapidity and accuracy of this novel method can characterize the results of specific selection criteria (e.g. width of leaf three, number of tillers, rate of leaf appearance) that

  3. Dynamic quantification of canopy structure to characterize early plant vigour in wheat genotypes.

    PubMed

    Duan, T; Chapman, S C; Holland, E; Rebetzke, G J; Guo, Y; Zheng, B

    2016-08-01

    Early vigour is an important physiological trait to improve establishment, water-use efficiency, and grain yield for wheat. Phenotyping large numbers of lines is challenging due to the fast growth and development of wheat seedlings. Here we developed a new photo-based workflow to monitor dynamically the growth and development of the wheat canopy of two wheat lines with a contrasting early vigour trait. Multiview images were taken using a 'vegetation stress' camera at 2 d intervals from emergence to the sixth leaf stage. Point clouds were extracted using the Multi-View Stereo and Structure From Motion (MVS-SFM) algorithm, and segmented into individual organs using the Octree method, with leaf midribs fitted using local polynomial function. Finally, phenotypic parameters were calculated from the reconstructed point cloud including: tiller and leaf number, plant height, Haun index, phyllochron, leaf length, angle, and leaf elongation rate. There was good agreement between the observed and estimated leaf length (RMSE=8.6mm, R (2)=0.98, n=322) across both lines. Significant contrasts of phenotyping parameters were observed between the two lines and were consistent with manual observations. The early vigour line had fewer tillers (2.4±0.6) and larger leaves (308.0±38.4mm and 17.1±2.7mm for leaf length and width, respectively). While the phyllochron of both lines was quite similar, the non-vigorous line had a greater Haun index (more leaves on the main stem) on any date, as the vigorous line had slower development of its first two leaves. The workflow presented in this study provides an efficient method to phenotype individual plants using a low-cost camera (an RGB camera is also suitable) and could be applied in phenotyping for applications in both simulation modelling and breeding. The rapidity and accuracy of this novel method can characterize the results of specific selection criteria (e.g. width of leaf three, number of tillers, rate of leaf appearance) that have

  4. Dynamical behavior of a rumor transmission model with Holling-type II functional response in emergency event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huo, Liang'an; Jiang, Jiehui; Gong, Sixing; He, Bing

    2016-05-01

    Rumor transmission has become an important issue in emergency event. In this paper, a rumor transmission model with Holling-type II functional response was proposed, which provides excellent explanations of the scientific knowledge effect with rumor spreading. By a global analysis of the model and studying the stability of the rumor-free equilibrium and the rumor-endemic equilibrium, we found that the number of infective individuals equal to zero or positive integer as time went on. A numerical simulation is carried out to illustrate the feasibility of our main results. The results will provide the theoretical support to rumor control in emergency event and also provide decision makers references for the public opinions management.

  5. Improving knowledge and behaviours related to the cause, transmission and prevention of Tuberculosis and early case detection: a descriptive study of community led Tuberculosis program in Flores, Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Dewi, Christa; Barclay, Lesley; Passey, Megan; Wilson, Shawn

    2016-08-08

    The community's awareness of Tuberculosis (TB) and delays in health care seeking remain important issues in Indonesia despite the extensive efforts of community-based TB programs delivered by a non-government organisation (NGO). This study explored the knowledge and behaviours in relation to TB and early diagnosis before and after an asset-based intervention designed to improve these issues. Six villages in Flores, Indonesia were purposively selected to participate in this study. Three villages served as intervention villages and the other three villages provided a comparison group. Data collection included interviews, group discussions, observations, field notes and audit of records. In total, 50 participants across six villages were interviewed and three group discussions were conducted in the intervention villages supplemented by 1 - 5 h of observation during monthly visits. Overall, participants in all villages had limited knowledge regarding the cause and transmission of TB before the intervention. The delay in health seeking behaviour was mainly influenced by ignorance of TB symptoms. Health care providers also contributed to delayed diagnosis by ignoring the symptoms of TB suspects at the first visit and failing to examine TB suspects with sputum tests. Stigmatisation of TB patients by the community was reported, although this did not seem to be common. Early case detection was less than 50 % in four of the six villages before the asset-based intervention. Knowledge of TB improved after the intervention in the intervention villages alongside improved education activities. Early case detection also increased in the intervention villages following this intervention. The behaviour changes related to prevention of TB were also obvious in the intervention villages but not the comparison group. This small project demonstrated that an asset-based intervention can result in positive changes in community's knowledge and behaviour in relation to TB and early case

  6. Evaluating wildlife-cattle contact rates to improve the understanding of dynamics of bovine tuberculosis transmission in Michigan, USA.

    PubMed

    Lavelle, Michael J; Kay, Shannon L; Pepin, Kim M; Grear, Daniel A; Campa, Henry; VerCauteren, Kurt C

    2016-12-01

    Direct and indirect contacts among individuals drive transmission of infectious disease. When multiple interacting species are susceptible to the same pathogen, risk assessment must include all potential host species. Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an example of a disease that can be transmitted among several wildlife species and to cattle, although the potential role of several wildlife species in spillback to cattle remains unclear. To better understand the complex network of contacts and factors driving disease transmission, we fitted proximity logger collars to beef and dairy cattle (n=37), white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus; n=29), raccoon (Procyon lotor; n=53), and Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana; n=79) for 16 months in Michigan's Lower Peninsula, USA. We determined inter- and intra-species direct and indirect contact rates. Data on indirect contact was calculated when collared animals visited stationary proximity loggers placed at cattle feed and water resources. Most contact between wildlife species and cattle was indirect, with the highest contact rates occurring between raccoons and cattle during summer and fall. Nearly all visits (>99%) to cattle feed and water sources were by cattle, whereas visitation to stored cattle feed was dominated by deer and raccoon (46% and 38%, respectively). Our results suggest that indirect contact resulting from wildlife species visiting cattle-related resources could pose a risk of disease transmission to cattle and deserves continued attention with active mitigation. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  7. The effect of dietary antioxidant supplementation in a vertebrate host on the infection dynamics and transmission of avian malaria to the vector.

    PubMed

    Delhaye, Jessica; Glaizot, Olivier; Christe, Philippe

    2018-05-09

    Host susceptibility to parasites is likely to be influenced by intrinsic factors, such as host oxidative status determined by the balance between pro-oxidant production and antioxidant defences. As a result, host oxidative status acts as an environmental factor for parasites and may constrain parasite development. We evaluated the role of host oxidative status on infection dynamics of an avian malarial parasite by providing canaries (Serinus canaria) with an antioxidant supplementation composed of vitamin E (a lipophilic antioxidant) and olive oil, a source of monounsaturated fatty acids. Another group received a standard, non-supplemented food. Half of the birds in each group where then infected with the haemosporidian parasite, Plasmodium relictum. We monitored the parasitaemia, haematocrit level, and red cell membrane resistance, as well as the transmission success of the parasite to its mosquito vector, Culex pipiens. During the acute phase, the negative effect of the infection was more severe in the supplemented group, as shown by a lower haematocrit level. Parasitaemia was lower in the supplemented group during the chronic phase only. Mosquitoes fed on supplemented hosts were more often infected than mosquitoes fed on the control group. These results suggest that dietary antioxidant supplementation conferred protection against Plasmodium in the long term, at the expense of a short-term negative effect. Malaria parasites may take advantage of antioxidants, as shown by the increased transmission rate in the supplemented group. Overall, our results suggest an important role of oxidative status in infection outcome and parasite transmission.

  8. A high-resolution analytical scanning transmission electron microscopy study of the early stages of spinodal decomposition in binary Fe–Cr

    SciTech Connect

    Westraadt, J.E., E-mail: johan.westraadt@nmmu.ac.za; Olivier, E.J.; Neethling, J.H.

    2015-11-15

    Spinodal decomposition (SD) is an important phenomenon in materials science and engineering. For example, it is considered to be responsible for the 475 °C embrittlement of stainless steels comprising the bcc (ferrite) or bct (martensite) phases. Structural characterization of the evolving minute nano-scale concentration fluctuations during SD in the Fe–Cr system is, however, a notable challenge, and has mainly been considered accessible via atom probe tomography (APT) and small-angle neutron scattering. The standard tool for nanostructure characterization, viz. transmission electron microscopy (TEM), has only been successfully applied to late stages of SD when embrittlement is already severe. However, we heremore » demonstrate that the structural evolution in the early stages of SD in binary Fe–Cr, and alloys based on the binary, are accessible via analytical scanning TEM. An Fe–36 wt% Cr alloy aged at 500 °C for 1, 10 and 100 h is investigated using an aberration-corrected microscope and it is found that highly coherent and interconnected Cr-rich regions develop. The wavelength of decomposition is rather insensitive to the sample thickness and it is quantified to 2, 3 and 6 nm after ageing for 1, 10 and 100 h, which is in reasonable agreement with prior APT analysis. The concentration amplitude is more sensitive to the sample thickness and acquisition parameters but the TEM analysis is in good agreement with APT analysis for the longest ageing time. These findings open up for combinatorial TEM studies where both local crystallography and chemistry is required. - Highlights: • STEM-EELS analysis was successfully applied to resolve early stage SD in Fe–Cr. • Compositional wavelength measured with STEM-EELS compares well to previous ATP studies. • Compositional amplitude measured with STEM-EELS is a function of experimental parameters. • STEM-EELS allows for combinatorial studies of SD using complementary techniques.« less

  9. Transmission Line Ampacity Improvements of AltaLink Wind Plant Overhead Tie-Lines Using Weather-Based Dynamic Line Rating

    SciTech Connect

    Bhattarai, Bishnu P.; Gentle, Jake P.; Hill, Porter

    Abstract—Overhead transmission lines (TLs) are conventionally given seasonal ratings based on conservative environmental assumptions. Such an approach often results in underutilization of the line ampacity as the worst conditions prevail only for a short period over a year/season. We presents dynamic line rating (DLR) as an enabling smart grid technology that adaptively computes ratings of TLs based on local weather conditions to utilize additional headroom of existing lines. In particular, general line ampacity state solver utilizes measured weather data for computing the real-time thermal rating of the TLs. The performance of the presented method is demonstrated from a field studymore » of DLR technology implementation on four TL segments at AltaLink, Canada. The performance is evaluated and quantified by comparing the existing static and proposed dynamic line ratings, and the potential benefits of DLR for enhanced transmission assets utilization. For the given line segments, the proposed DLR results in real-time ratings above the seasonal static ratings for most of the time; up to 95.1% of the time, with a mean increase of 72% over static rating.« less

  10. Does the Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills Next Assessment Take a "Simple View" of Reading?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Munger, Kristen A.; LoFaro, Stephen A.; Kawryga, Erin A.; Sovocool, Elizabeth A.; Medina, Siani Y.

    2014-01-01

    This study involved examination of the validity evidence of the Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills-Next Edition (DIBELS Next) for a sample of 85 third-and fifth-grade students, in reference to the "simple view" of reading. Tests administered included DIBELS Next, Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test-IV (PPVT-IV), Group Reading…

  11. Does a Dynamic Test of Phonological Awareness Predict Early Reading Difficulties? A Longitudinal Study from Kindergarten through Grade 1

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gellert, Anna S.; Elbro, Carsten

    2017-01-01

    A few studies have indicated that dynamic measures of phonological awareness may contribute uniquely to the prediction of early reading development. However, standard control measures have been few and limited by floor effects, thus limiting their predictive value. The purpose of the present study was to examine the predictive value of a dynamic…

  12. Overlapping DNA Methylation Dynamics in Mouse Intestinal Cell Differentiation and Early Stages of Malignant Progression

    PubMed Central

    Forn, Marta; Díez-Villanueva, Anna; Merlos-Suárez, Anna; Muñoz, Mar; Lois, Sergi; Carriò, Elvira; Jordà, Mireia; Bigas, Anna; Batlle, Eduard; Peinado, Miguel A.

    2015-01-01

    Mouse models of intestinal crypt cell differentiation and tumorigenesis have been used to characterize the molecular mechanisms underlying both processes. DNA methylation is a key epigenetic mark and plays an important role in cell identity and differentiation programs and cancer. To get insights into the dynamics of cell differentiation and malignant transformation we have compared the DNA methylation profiles along the mouse small intestine crypt and early stages of tumorigenesis. Genome-scale analysis of DNA methylation together with microarray gene expression have been applied to compare intestinal crypt stem cells (EphB2high), differentiated cells (EphB2negative), ApcMin/+ adenomas and the corresponding non-tumor adjacent tissue, together with small and large intestine samples and the colon cancer cell line CT26. Compared with late stages, small intestine crypt differentiation and early stages of tumorigenesis display few and relatively small changes in DNA methylation. Hypermethylated loci are largely shared by the two processes and affect the proximities of promoter and enhancer regions, with enrichment in genes associated with the intestinal stem cell signature and the PRC2 complex. The hypermethylation is progressive, with minute levels in differentiated cells, as compared with intestinal stem cells, and reaching full methylation in advanced stages. Hypomethylation shows different signatures in differentiation and cancer and is already present in the non-tumor tissue adjacent to the adenomas in ApcMin/+ mice, but at lower levels than advanced cancers. This study provides a reference framework to decipher the mechanisms driving mouse intestinal tumorigenesis and also the human counterpart. PMID:25933092

  13. Predicting Mountainous Watershed Biogeochemical Dynamics, Including Response to Droughts and Early Snowmelt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hubbard, S. S.; Williams, K. H.; Long, P.; Agarwal, D.; Banfield, J. F.; Beller, H. R.; Bouskill, N.; Brodie, E.; Maxwell, R. M.; Nico, P. S.; Steefel, C. I.; Steltzer, H.; Tokunaga, T. K.; Wainwright, H. M.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change, extreme weather, land-use change, and other perturbations are significantly reshaping interactions with in watersheds throughout the world. While mountainous watersheds are recognized as the water towers for the world, hydrological processes in watersheds also mediate biogeochemical processes that support all terrestrial life. Developing predictive understanding of watershed hydrological and biogeochemical functioning is challenging, as complex interactions occurring within a heterogeneous watershed can lead to a cascade of effects on downstream water availability and quality. Although these interactions can have significant implications for energy production, agriculture, water quality, and other benefits valued by society, uncertainty associated with predicting watershed function is high. The Watershed Function project aims to substantially reduce this uncertainty through developing a predictive understanding of how mountainous watersheds retain and release downgradient water, nutrients, carbon, and metals. In particular, the project is exploring how early snowmelt, drought, and other disturbances will influence mountainous watershed dynamics at seasonal to decadal timescales. The Watershed Function project is being carried out in a headwater mountainous catchment of the Upper Colorado River Basin, within a watershed characterized by significant gradients in elevation, vegetation and hydrogeology. A system-within system project perspective posits that the integrated watershed response to disturbances can be adequately predicted through consideration of interactions and feedbacks occurring within a limited number of subsystems, each having distinct vegetation-subsurface biogeochemical-hydrological characteristics. A key technological goal is the development of scale-adaptive simulation capabilities that can incorporate genomic information where and when it is useful for predicting the overall watershed response to disturbance. Through developing

  14. Risk Factors for Early and Late Transmission of HIV via Breast-Feeding among Infants Born to HIV-Infected Women in a Randomized Clinical Trial in Botswana

    PubMed Central

    Shapiro, Roger L.; Smeaton, Laura; Lockman, Shahin; Thior, lbou; Rossenkhan, Raabya; Wester, Carolyn; Stevens, Lisa; Moffat, Claire; Arimi, Peter; Ndase, Patrick; Asmelash, Aida; Leidner, Jean; Novitsky, Vladimir; Makhema, Joseph; Essex, Max

    2009-01-01

    Risk factors for mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) via breast-feeding were evaluated in a randomized trial. HIV-infected women and their infants received zidovudine as well as single-dose nevirapine or placebo. Infants were randomized to formula-feed (FF) or breast-feed (BF) in combination with zidovudine prophylaxis. Of 1116 at-risk infants, 6 (1.1%) in the FF group and 7 (1.3%) in the BF group were infected between birth and 1 month)P = .99). Maternal receipt of nevirapine did not predict early MTCT in the BF group (P = .45). Of 547 infants in the BF group at risk for late MTCT, 24 (4.4%) were infected. Maternal HIV-1 RNA levels in plasma (P<.001) and breast milk (P<.001) predicted late MTCT. These findings support the safety of 1 month of breast-feeding in combination with maternal and infant antiretroviral prophylaxis. PMID:19090775

  15. Effects of clustered transmission on epidemic growth Comment on "Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review" by Gerardo Chowell et al.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merler, Stefano

    2016-09-01

    Characterizing the early growth profile of an epidemic outbreak is key for predicting the likely trajectory of the number of cases and for designing adequate control measures. Epidemic profiles characterized by exponential growth have been widely observed in the past and a grounding theoretical framework for the analysis of infectious disease dynamics was provided by the pioneering work of Kermack and McKendrick [1]. In particular, exponential growth stems from the assumption that pathogens spread in homogeneous mixing populations; that is, individuals of the population mix uniformly and randomly with each other. However, this assumption was readily recognized as highly questionable [2], and sub-exponential profiles of epidemic growth have been observed in a number of epidemic outbreaks, including HIV/AIDS, foot-and-mouth disease, measles and, more recently, Ebola [3,4].

  16. Health-seeking behavior and transmission dynamics in the control of influenza infection among different age groups

    PubMed Central

    You, Shu-Han; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Liao, Chung-Min

    2018-01-01

    Background It has been found that health-seeking behavior has a certain impact on influenza infection. However, behaviors with/without risk perception on the control of influenza transmission among age groups have not been well quantified. Objectives The purpose of this study was to assess to what extent, under scenarios of with/without control and preventive/protective behaviors, the age-specific network-driven risk perception influences influenza infection. Materials and methods A behavior-influenza model was used to estimate the spread rate of age-specific risk perception in response to an influenza outbreak. A network-based information model was used to assess the effect of network-driven risk perception information transmission on influenza infection. A probabilistic risk model was used to assess the infection risk effect of risk perception with a health behavior change. Results The age-specific overlapping percentage was estimated to be 40%–43%, 55%–60%, and 19%–35% for child, teenage and adult, and elderly age groups, respectively. Individuals perceive the preventive behavior to improve risk perception information transmission among teenage and adult and elderly age groups, but not in the child age group. The population with perceived health behaviors could not effectively decrease the percentage of infection risk in the child age group, whereas for the elderly age group, the percentage of decrease in infection risk was more significant, with a 97.5th percentile estimate of 97%. Conclusion The present integrated behavior-infection model can help health authorities in communicating health messages for an intertwined belief network in which health-seeking behavior plays a key role in controlling influenza infection. PMID:29563814

  17. Transmission dynamics of co-endemic Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum in Ethiopia and prevalence of antimalarial resistant genotypes

    PubMed Central

    Yewhalaw, Delenasaw; Nguyen, Jennifer; Kebede, Estifanos; Zemene, Endalew; Getachew, Sisay; Tushune, Kora; Zhong, Daibin; Zhou, Guofa; Petros, Beyene; Yan, Guiyun

    2017-01-01

    Ethiopia is one of the few African countries where Plasmodium vivax is co-endemic with P. falciparum. Malaria transmission is seasonal and transmission intensity varies mainly by landscape and climate. Although the recent emergence of drug resistant parasites presents a major issue to malaria control in Ethiopia, little is known about the transmission pathways of parasite species and prevalence of resistant markers. This study used microsatellites to determine population diversity and gene flow patterns of P. falciparum (N = 226) and P. vivax (N = 205), as well as prevalence of drug resistant markers to infer the impact of gene flow and existing malaria treatment regimes. Plasmodium falciparum indicated a higher rate of polyclonal infections than P. vivax. Both species revealed moderate genetic diversity and similar population structure. Populations in the northern highlands were closely related to the eastern Rift Valley, but slightly distinct from the southern basin area. Gene flow via human migrations between the northern and eastern populations were frequent and mostly bidirectional. Landscape genetic analyses indicated that environmental heterogeneity and geographical distance did not constrain parasite gene flow. This may partly explain similar patterns of resistant marker prevalence. In P. falciparum, a high prevalence of mutant alleles was detected in codons related to chloroquine (pfcrt and pfmdr1) and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (pfdhps and pfdhfr) resistance. Over 60% of the samples showed pfmdr1 duplications. Nevertheless, no mutation was detected in pfK13 that relates to artemisinin resistance. In P. vivax, while sequences of pvcrt-o were highly conserved and less than 5% of the samples showed pvmdr duplications, over 50% of the samples had pvmdr1 976F mutation. It remains to be tested if this mutation relates to chloroquine resistance. Monitoring the extent of malaria spread and markers of drug resistance is imperative to inform policy for evidence

  18. Transmission dynamics of co-endemic Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum in Ethiopia and prevalence of antimalarial resistant genotypes.

    PubMed

    Lo, Eugenia; Hemming-Schroeder, Elizabeth; Yewhalaw, Delenasaw; Nguyen, Jennifer; Kebede, Estifanos; Zemene, Endalew; Getachew, Sisay; Tushune, Kora; Zhong, Daibin; Zhou, Guofa; Petros, Beyene; Yan, Guiyun

    2017-07-01

    Ethiopia is one of the few African countries where Plasmodium vivax is co-endemic with P. falciparum. Malaria transmission is seasonal and transmission intensity varies mainly by landscape and climate. Although the recent emergence of drug resistant parasites presents a major issue to malaria control in Ethiopia, little is known about the transmission pathways of parasite species and prevalence of resistant markers. This study used microsatellites to determine population diversity and gene flow patterns of P. falciparum (N = 226) and P. vivax (N = 205), as well as prevalence of drug resistant markers to infer the impact of gene flow and existing malaria treatment regimes. Plasmodium falciparum indicated a higher rate of polyclonal infections than P. vivax. Both species revealed moderate genetic diversity and similar population structure. Populations in the northern highlands were closely related to the eastern Rift Valley, but slightly distinct from the southern basin area. Gene flow via human migrations between the northern and eastern populations were frequent and mostly bidirectional. Landscape genetic analyses indicated that environmental heterogeneity and geographical distance did not constrain parasite gene flow. This may partly explain similar patterns of resistant marker prevalence. In P. falciparum, a high prevalence of mutant alleles was detected in codons related to chloroquine (pfcrt and pfmdr1) and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (pfdhps and pfdhfr) resistance. Over 60% of the samples showed pfmdr1 duplications. Nevertheless, no mutation was detected in pfK13 that relates to artemisinin resistance. In P. vivax, while sequences of pvcrt-o were highly conserved and less than 5% of the samples showed pvmdr duplications, over 50% of the samples had pvmdr1 976F mutation. It remains to be tested if this mutation relates to chloroquine resistance. Monitoring the extent of malaria spread and markers of drug resistance is imperative to inform policy for evidence

  19. Patterns and drivers of Early Holocene vegetation dynamics in Central Europe