Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin
2013-04-01
The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7
Tsunami Early Warning Within Five Minutes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lomax, Anthony; Michelini, Alberto
2013-09-01
Tsunamis are most destructive at near to regional distances, arriving within 20-30 min after a causative earthquake; effective early warning at these distances requires notification within 15 min or less. The size and impact of a tsunami also depend on sea floor displacement, which is related to the length, L, width, W, mean slip, D, and depth, z, of the earthquake rupture. Currently, the primary seismic discriminant for tsunami potential is the centroid-moment tensor magnitude, M {w/CMT}, representing the product LWD and estimated via an indirect inversion procedure. However, the obtained M {w/CMT} and the implied LWD value vary with rupture depth, earth model, and other factors, and are only available 20-30 min or more after an earthquake. The use of more direct discriminants for tsunami potential could avoid these problems and aid in effective early warning, especially for near to regional distances. Previously, we presented a direct procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using two, simple measurements on P-wave seismograms—the predominant period on velocity records, T d , and the likelihood, T {50/Ex}, that the high-frequency, apparent rupture-duration, T 0, exceeds 50-55 s. We have shown that T d and T 0 are related to the critical rupture parameters L, W, D, and z, and that either of the period-duration products T d T 0 or T d T {50/Ex} gives more information on tsunami impact and size than M {w/CMT}, M wp, and other currently used discriminants. These results imply that tsunami potential is not directly related to the product LWD from the "seismic" faulting model, as is assumed with the use of the M {w/CMT} discriminant. Instead, information on rupture length, L, and depth, z, as provided by T d T 0 or T d T {50/Ex}, can constrain well the tsunami potential of an earthquake. We introduce here special treatment of the signal around the S arrival at close stations, a modified, real-time, M wpd(RT) magnitude, and other procedures to
Development of a GNSS-Enhanced Tsunami Early Warning System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bawden, G. W.; Melbourne, T. I.; Bock, Y.; Song, Y. T.; Komjathy, A.
2015-12-01
The past decade has witnessed a terrible loss of life and economic disruption caused by large earthquakes and resultant tsunamis impacting coastal communities and infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific region. NASA has funded the early development of a prototype real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (RT-GNSS) based rapid earthquake and tsunami early warning (GNSS-TEW) system that may be used to enhance seismic tsunami early warning systems for large earthquakes. This prototype GNSS-TEW system geodetically estimates fault parameters (earthquake magnitude, location, strike, dip, and slip magnitude/direction on a gridded fault plane both along strike and at depth) and tsunami source parameters (seafloor displacement, tsunami energy scale, and 3D tsunami initials) within minutes after the mainshock based on dynamic numerical inversions/regressions of the real-time measured displacements within a spatially distributed real-time GNSS network(s) spanning the epicentral region. It is also possible to measure fluctuations in the ionosphere's total electron content (TEC) in the RT-GNSS data caused by the pressure wave from the tsunami. This TEC approach can detect if a tsunami has been triggered by an earthquake, track its waves as they propagate through the oceanic basins, and provide upwards of 45 minutes early warning. These combined real-time geodetic approaches will very quickly address a number of important questions in the immediate minutes following a major earthquake: How big was the earthquake and what are its fault parameters? Could the earthquake have produced a tsunami and was a tsunami generated?
Tsunami Early Warning via a Physics-Based Simulation Pipeline
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilson, J. M.; Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Ward, S. N.; Komjathy, A.
2017-12-01
Through independent efforts, physics-based simulations of earthquakes, tsunamis, and atmospheric signatures of these phenomenon have been developed. With the goal of producing tsunami forecasts and early warning tools for at-risk regions, we join these three spheres to create a simulation pipeline. The Virtual Quake simulator can produce thousands of years of synthetic seismicity on large, complex fault geometries, as well as the expected surface displacement in tsunamigenic regions. These displacements are used as initial conditions for tsunami simulators, such as Tsunami Squares, to produce catalogs of potential tsunami scenarios with probabilities. Finally, these tsunami scenarios can act as input for simulations of associated ionospheric total electron content, signals which can be detected by GNSS satellites for purposes of early warning in the event of a real tsunami. We present the most recent developments in this project.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hammitzsch, M.; Spazier, J.; Reißland, S.
2014-12-01
Usually, tsunami early warning and mitigation systems (TWS or TEWS) are based on several software components deployed in a client-server based infrastructure. The vast majority of systems importantly include desktop-based clients with a graphical user interface (GUI) for the operators in early warning centers. However, in times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms, introduced by continuously evolving approaches in information and communications technology (ICT), have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in three research projects - 'German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System' (GITEWS), 'Distant Early Warning System' (DEWS), and 'Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises' (TRIDEC) - new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based prototype to open up new prospects for EWS. This prototype, named 'TRIDEC Cloud', merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services into one platform for automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The prototype in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part of this prototype to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. However, the platform is meant for researchers around the world to make use of the cloud-based GPU computation to analyze other types of geohazards and natural hazards and react upon the computed situation picture with a web-based GUI in a web browser at remote sites. The current website is an early alpha version for demonstration purposes to give the
Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
An, C.; Meng, L.
2015-12-01
Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800
GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.
2011-03-01
On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.
Tsunami Generation Modelling for Early Warning Systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Annunziato, A.; Matias, L.; Ulutas, E.; Baptista, M. A.; Carrilho, F.
2009-04-01
In the frame of a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the Institute of Meteorology in Portugal, a complete analytical tool to support Early Warning Systems is being developed. The tool will be part of the Portuguese National Early Warning System and will be used also in the frame of the UNESCO North Atlantic Section of the Tsunami Early Warning System. The system called Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT) includes a worldwide scenario database that has been pre-calculated using the SWAN-JRC code (Annunziato, 2007). This code uses a simplified fault generation mechanism and the hydraulic model is based on the SWAN code (Mader, 1988). In addition to the pre-defined scenario, a system of computers is always ready to start a new calculation whenever a new earthquake is detected by the seismic networks (such as USGS or EMSC) and is judged capable to generate a Tsunami. The calculation is performed using minimal parameters (epicentre and the magnitude of the earthquake): the programme calculates the rupture length and rupture width by using empirical relationship proposed by Ward (2002). The database calculations, as well the newly generated calculations with the current conditions are therefore available to TAT where the real online analysis is performed. The system allows to analyze also sea level measurements available worldwide in order to compare them and decide if a tsunami is really occurring or not. Although TAT, connected with the scenario database and the online calculation system, is at the moment the only software that can support the tsunami analysis on a global scale, we are convinced that the fault generation mechanism is too simplified to give a correct tsunami prediction. Furthermore short tsunami arrival times especially require a possible earthquake source parameters data on tectonic features of the faults like strike, dip, rake and slip in order to minimize real time uncertainty of rupture parameters. Indeed the earthquake
REWSET: A prototype seismic and tsunami early warning system in Rhodes island, Greece
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Argyris, Ilias; Aggelou, Savvas; Karastathis, Vasilis
2014-05-01
Tsunami warning in near-field conditions is a critical issue in the Mediterranean Sea since the most important tsunami sources are situated within tsunami wave travel times starting from about five minutes. The project NEARTOWARN (2012-2013) supported by the EU-DG ECHO contributed substantially to the development of new tools for the near-field tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the test-site of Rhodes island (Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis - REWSET). The system is composed by three main subsystems: (1) a network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different localities of the island, one in the civil protection, another in the Fire Brigade and another two in municipality buildings; (2) two radar-type (ultrasonic) tide-gauges installed in the eastern coastal zine of the island which was selected since research on the historical earthquake and tsunami activity has indicated that the most important, near-field tsunami sources are situated offshore to the east of Rhodes; (3) a crisis Geographic Management System (GMS), which is a web-based and GIS-based application incorporating a variety of thematic maps and other information types. The seismic early warning devices activate by strong (magnitude around 6 or more) earthquakes occurring at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing immediate mobilization of the civil protection. The tide-gauges transmit sea level data, while during the crisis the GMS supports decisions to be made by civil protection. In the near future it is planned the REWSET system to be integrated with national and international systems. REWSET is a prototype which certainly could be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond.
A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.
2012-04-01
The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system
Novel Algorithms Enabling Rapid, Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring and Tsunami Early Warning Worldwide
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lomax, A.; Michelini, A.
2012-12-01
We have introduced recently new methods to determine rapidly the tsunami potential and magnitude of large earthquakes (e.g., Lomax and Michelini, 2009ab, 2011, 2012). To validate these methods we have implemented them along with other new algorithms within the Early-est earthquake monitor at INGV-Rome (http://early-est.rm.ingv.it, http://early-est.alomax.net). Early-est is a lightweight software package for real-time earthquake monitoring (including phase picking, phase association and event detection, location, magnitude determination, first-motion mechanism determination, ...), and for tsunami early warning based on discriminants for earthquake tsunami potential. In a simulation using archived broadband seismograms for the devastating M9, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, Early-est determines: the epicenter within 3 min after the event origin time, discriminants showing very high tsunami potential within 5-7 min, and magnitude Mwpd(RT) 9.0-9.2 and a correct shallow-thrusting mechanism within 8 min. Real-time monitoring with Early-est givess similar results for most large earthquakes using currently available, real-time seismogram data. Here we summarize some of the key algorithms within Early-est that enable rapid, real-time earthquake monitoring and tsunami early warning worldwide: >>> FilterPicker - a general purpose, broad-band, phase detector and picker (http://alomax.net/FilterPicker); >>> Robust, simultaneous association and location using a probabilistic, global-search; >>> Period-duration discriminants TdT0 and TdT50Ex for tsunami potential available within 5 min; >>> Mwpd(RT) magnitude for very large earthquakes available within 10 min; >>> Waveform P polarities determined on broad-band displacement traces, focal mechanisms obtained with the HASH program (Hardebeck and Shearer, 2002); >>> SeisGramWeb - a portable-device ready seismogram viewer using web-services in a browser (http://alomax.net/webtools/sgweb/info.html). References (see also: http
On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal
2010-05-01
Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning
Community participation in tsunami early warning system in Pangandaran town
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hadian, Sapari D.; Khadijah, Ute Lies Siti; Saepudin, Encang; Budiono, Agung; Yuliawati, Ayu Krishna
2017-07-01
Disaster-resilient communities are communities capable of anticipating and minimizing destructive forces through adaptation. Disaster is an event very close to the people of Indonesia, especially in the small tourism town of Pangadaran located at West Java, Indonesia. On July 17, 2006, the town was hit by a Mw 7.8 earthquake and tsunami that effected over 300 km of the coastline, where the community suffered losses in which more than 600 people were killed, with run up heights exceeding 20 m. The devastation of the tsunami have made the community more alert and together with the local government and other stakeholder develop an Early Warning System for Tsunami. The study is intended to discover issues on tsunami Early Warning System (EWS), disaster risk reduction measures taken and community participation. The research method used is descriptive and explanatory research. The study describe the Tsunami EWS and community based Disaster Risk Reduction in Pangandaran, the implementation of Tsunami alert/EWS in disaster preparedness and observation of community participation in EWS. Data were gathered by secondary data collection, also primary data through interviews, focus group discussions and field observations. Research resulted in a description of EWS implementation, community participation and recommendation to reduce disaster risk in Pangandaran.
Anatomy of Historical Tsunamis: Lessons Learned for Tsunami Warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Igarashi, Y.; Kong, L.; Yamamoto, M.; McCreery, C. S.
2011-11-01
under the United Nations. This paper reviews historical tsunamis, their warning activities, and their sea level records to highlight lessons learned with the focus on how these insights have helped to drive further development of tsunami warning systems and their tsunami warning centers. While the international systems do well for teletsunamis, faster detection, more accurate evaluations, and widespread timely alerts are still the goals, and challenges still remain to achieving early warning against the more frequent and destructive local tsunamis.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rakowsky, N.; Harig, S.; Androsov, A.; Fuchs, A.; Immerz, A.; Schröter, J.; Hiller, W.
2012-04-01
Starting in 2005, the GITEWS project (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) established from scratch a fully operational tsunami warning system at BMKG in Jakarta. Numerical simulations of prototypic tsunami scenarios play a decisive role in a priori risk assessment for coastal regions and in the early warning process itself. Repositories with currently 3470 regional tsunami scenarios for GITEWS and 1780 Indian Ocean wide scenarios in support of Indonesia as a Regional Tsunami Service Provider (RTSP) were computed with the non-linear shallow water modell TsunAWI. It is based on a finite element discretisation, employs unstructured grids with high resolution along the coast and includes inundation. This contribution gives an overview on the model itself, the enhancement of the model physics, and the experiences gained during the process of establishing an operational code suited for thousands of model runs. Technical aspects like computation time, disk space needed for each scenario in the repository, or post processing techniques have a much larger impact than they had in the beginning when TsunAWI started as a research code. Of course, careful testing on artificial benchmarks and real events remains essential, but furthermore, quality control for the large number of scenarios becomes an important issue.
The TRIDEC Project: Future-Saving FOSS GIS Applications for Tsunami Early Warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Loewe, P.; Wächter, J.; Hammitzsch, M.
2011-12-01
The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed over 240,000 people in 14 countries and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. This natural disaster coincided with an information catastrophy, as potentially life-saving early warning information existed, yet no means were available to deliver it to the communities under imminent threat. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for ongoing TEWS research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages. Since 2004, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All TRIDEC developments are based on Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components and industry standards where-ever possible. Tsunami Early Warning in TRIDEC is also based on mature system architecture models to ensure long-term usability and the flexibility to adapt to future generations of Tsunami sensors. All open source software produced by the project consortium are foreseen to be published on FOSSLAB, a publicly available
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tinti, S.; Tonini, R.; Armigliato, A.; Zaniboni, F.; Pagnoni, G.; Gallazzi, Sara; Bressan, Lidia
2010-05-01
The tsunamigenic earthquake (M 8.8) that occurred offshore central Chile on 27 February 2010 can be classified as a typical subduction-zone earthquake. The effects of the ensuing tsunami have been devastating along the Chile coasts, and especially between the cities of Valparaiso and Talcahuano, and in the Juan Fernandez islands. The tsunami propagated across the entire Pacific Ocean, hitting with variable intensity almost all the coasts facing the basin. While the far-field propagation was quite well tracked almost in real-time by the warning centres and reasonably well reproduced by the forecast models, the toll of lives and the severity of the damage caused by the tsunami in the near-field occurred with no local alert nor warning and sadly confirms that the protection of the communities placed close to the tsunami sources is still an unresolved problem in the tsunami early warning field. The purpose of this study is two-fold. On one side we perform numerical simulations of the tsunami starting from different earthquake models which we built on the basis of the preliminary seismic parameters (location, magnitude and focal mechanism) made available by the seismological agencies immediately after the event, or retrieved from more detailed and refined studies published online in the following days and weeks. The comparison with the available records of both offshore DART buoys and coastal tide-gauges is used to put some preliminary constraints on the best-fitting fault model. The numerical simulations are performed by means of the finite-difference code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna, Italy, which can solve both the linear and non-linear versions of the shallow-water equations on nested grids. The second purpose of this study is to use the conclusions drawn in the previous part in a tsunami early warning perspective. In the framework of the EU-funded project DEWS (Distant Early Warning System), we will
DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM for Tsunamis - A wide-area and multi-hazard approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim
2010-05-01
The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements in the case of tsunami early warning. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems but other geological paradigms are going to follow, e.g. volcanic eruptions or landslides. Therefore in future also multi-hazard functionality is conceivable. The specific software architecture of DEWS makes it possible to dock varying sensors to the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
LaBrecque, John
2016-04-01
The Global Geodetic Observing System has issued a Call for Participation to research scientists, geodetic research groups and national agencies in support of the implementation of the IUGG recommendation for a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Augmentation to Tsunami Early Warning Systems. The call seeks to establish a working group to be a catalyst and motivating force for the definition of requirements, identification of resources, and for the encouragement of international cooperation in the establishment, advancement, and utilization of GNSS for Tsunami Early Warning. During the past fifteen years the populations of the Indo-Pacific region experienced a series of mega-thrust earthquakes followed by devastating tsunamis that claimed nearly 300,000 lives. The future resiliency of the region will depend upon improvements to infrastructure and emergency response that will require very significant investments from the Indo-Pacific economies. The estimation of earthquake moment magnitude, source mechanism and the distribution of crustal deformation are critical to rapid tsunami warning. Geodetic research groups have demonstrated the use of GNSS data to estimate earthquake moment magnitude, source mechanism and the distribution of crustal deformation sufficient for the accurate and timely prediction of tsunamis generated by mega-thrust earthquakes. GNSS data have also been used to measure the formation and propagation of tsunamis via ionospheric disturbances acoustically coupled to the propagating surface waves; thereby providing a new technique to track tsunami propagation across ocean basins, opening the way for improving tsunami propagation models, and providing accurate warning to communities in the far field. These two new advancements can deliver timely and accurate tsunami warnings to coastal communities in the near and far field of mega-thrust earthquakes. This presentation will present the justification for and the details of the GGOS Call for
Tsunami Early Warning in Europe: NEAMWave Exercise 2012 - the Portuguese Scenario
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lendholt, Matthias; Hammmitzsch, Martin; Schulz, Jana; Reißland, Sven
2013-04-01
On 27th and 28th November 2012 the first European-wide tsunami exercise took place under the auspices of UNESCO Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (ICG/NEAMTWS). Four international scenarios were performed - one for each candidate tsunami watch provider France, Greece, Portugal and Turkey. Their task was to generate and disseminate tsunami warning bulletins in-time and in compliance with the official NEAMTWS specifications. The Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA, [1]) in Lissabon and the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI [2]) in Istanbul are the national agencies of Portugal and Turkey responsible for tsunami early warning. Both institutes are partners in the TRIDEC [3] project and were using the TRIDEC Natural Crisis Management (NCM) system during NEAMWave exercise. The software demonstrated the seamless integration of diverse components including sensor systems, simulation data, and dissemination hardware. The functionalities that were showcased significantly exceeded the internationally agreed range of capabilities. Special attention was given to the Command and Control User Interface (CCUI) serving as central application for the operator. Its origins lie in the DEWS project [4] but numerous new functionalities were added to master all requirements defined by the complex NEAMTWS workflows. It was of utmost importance to develop an application handling the complexity of tsunami science but providing a clearly arranged and comprehensible interface that disburdens the operator during time-critical hazard situations. [1] IPMA: www.ipma.pt/ [2] KOERI: www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/ [3] TRIDEC: www.tridec-online.eu [4] DEWS: www.dews-online.org
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Williamson, Amy L.; Newman, Andrew V.
2018-05-01
Over the past decade, the number of open-ocean gauges capable of parsing information about a passing tsunami has steadily increased, particularly through national cable networks and international buoyed efforts such as the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART). This information is analyzed to disseminate tsunami warnings to affected regions. However, most current warnings that incorporate tsunami are directed at mid- and far-field localities. In this study, we analyze the region surrounding four seismically active subduction zones, Cascadia, Japan, Chile, and Java, for their potential to facilitate local tsunami early warning using such systems. We assess which locations currently have instrumentation in the right locations for direct tsunami observations with enough time to provide useful warning to the nearest affected coastline—and which are poorly suited for such systems. Our primary findings are that while some regions are ill-suited for this type of early warning, such as the coastlines of Chile, other localities, like Java, Indonesia, could incorporate direct tsunami observations into their hazard forecasts with enough lead time to be effective for coastal community emergency response. We take into account the effect of tsunami propagation with regard to shallow bathymetry on the fore-arc as well as the effect of earthquake source placement. While it is impossible to account for every type of off-shore tsunamigenic event in these locales, this study aims to characterize a typical large tsunamigenic event occurring in the shallow part of the megathrust as a guide in what is feasible with early tsunami warning.
Integration of WERA Ocean Radar into Tsunami Early Warning Systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dzvonkovskaya, Anna; Helzel, Thomas; Kniephoff, Matthias; Petersen, Leif; Weber, Bernd
2016-04-01
High-frequency (HF) ocean radars give a unique capability to deliver simultaneous wide area measurements of ocean surface current fields and sea state parameters far beyond the horizon. The WERA® ocean radar system is a shore-based remote sensing system to monitor ocean surface in near real-time and at all-weather conditions up to 300 km offshore. Tsunami induced surface currents cause increasing orbital velocities comparing to normal oceanographic situation and affect the measured radar spectra. The theoretical approach about tsunami influence on radar spectra showed that a tsunami wave train generates a specific unusual pattern in the HF radar spectra. While the tsunami wave is approaching the beach, the surface current pattern changes slightly in deep water and significantly in the shelf area as it was shown in theoretical considerations and later proved during the 2011 Japan tsunami. These observed tsunami signatures showed that the velocity of tsunami currents depended on a tsunami wave height and bathymetry. The HF ocean radar doesn't measure the approaching wave height of a tsunami; however, it can resolve the surface current velocity signature, which is generated when tsunami reaches the shelf edge. This strong change of the surface current can be detected by a phased-array WERA system in real-time; thus the WERA ocean radar is a valuable tool to support Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Based on real tsunami measurements, requirements for the integration of ocean radar systems into TEWS are already defined. The requirements include a high range resolution, a narrow beam directivity of phased-array antennas and an accelerated data update mode to provide a possibility of offshore tsunami detection in real-time. The developed software package allows reconstructing an ocean surface current map of the area observed by HF radar based on the radar power spectrum processing. This fact gives an opportunity to issue an automated tsunami identification message
GPS-TEC of the Ionospheric Disturbances as a Tool for Early Tsunami Warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kunitsyn, Viacheslav E.; Nesterov, Ivan A.; Shalimov, Sergey L.; Krysanov, Boris Yu.; Padokhin, Artem M.; Rekenthaler, Douglas
2013-04-01
Recently, the GPS measurements were used for retrieving the information on the various types of ionospheric responses to seismic events (earthquakes, seismic Rayleigh waves, and tsunami) which generate atmospheric waves propagating up to the ionospheric altitudes where the collisions between the neutrals and charge particles give rise to the motion of the ionospheric plasma. These experimental results can well be used in architecture of the future tsunami warning system. The point is an earlier (in comparison with seismological methods) detection of the ionospheric signal that can indicate the moment of tsunami generation. As an example we consider the two-dimensional distributions of the vertical total electron content (TEC) variations in the ionosphere both close to and far from the epicenter of the Japan undersea earthquake of March 11, 2011 using radio tomographic (RT) reconstruction of high-temporal-resolution (2-minute) data from the Japan and the US GPS networks. Near-zone TEC variations shows a diverging ionospheric perturbation with multi-component spectral composition emerging after the main shock. The initial phase of the disturbance can be used as an indicator of the tsunami generation and subsequently for the tsunami early warning. Far-zone TEC variations reveals distinct wave train associated with gravity waves generated by tsunami. According to observations tsunami arrives at Hawaii and further at the coast of Southern California with delay relative to the gravity waves. Therefore the gravity wave pattern can be used in the early tsunami warning. We support this scenario by the results of modeling with the parameters of the ocean surface perturbation corresponding to the considered earthquake. In addition it was observed in the modeling that at long distance from the source the gravity wave can pass ahead of the tsunami. The work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grants 11-05-01157 and 12-05-33065).
Experiences integrating autonomous components and legacy systems into tsunami early warning systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reißland, S.; Herrnkind, S.; Guenther, M.; Babeyko, A.; Comoglu, M.; Hammitzsch, M.
2012-04-01
Fostered by and embedded in the general development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) the evolution of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors, e.g. sea level stations for the detection of tsunami waves and GPS stations for the detection of ground displacements. Furthermore, the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources serving near real-time data not only includes sensors but also other components and systems offering services such as the delivery of feasible simulations used for forecasting in an imminent tsunami threat. In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. In the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) new developments are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed TEWS. This talk will describe experiences made in GITEWS, DEWS and TRIDEC while integrating legacy stand-alone systems and newly developed special-purpose software components into TEWS using different software adapters and communication strategies to make the systems work together in a corporate infrastructure. The talk will also cover task management and data conversion between the different systems. Practical approaches and software solutions for the integration of sensors, e.g. providing seismic and sea level data, and utilisation of special
Application of a Tsunami Warning Message Metric to refine NOAA NWS Tsunami Warning Messages
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gregg, C. E.; Johnston, D.; Sorensen, J.; Whitmore, P.
2013-12-01
In 2010, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) funded a three year project to integrate social science into their Tsunami Program. One of three primary requirements of the grant was to make improvements to tsunami warning messages of the NWS' two Tsunami Warning Centers- the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Ewa Beach, Hawaii. We conducted focus group meetings with a purposive sample of local, state and Federal stakeholders and emergency managers in six states (AK, WA, OR, CA, HI and NC) and two US Territories (US Virgin Islands and American Samoa) to qualitatively asses information needs in tsunami warning messages using WCATWC tsunami messages for the March 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami event. We also reviewed research literature on behavioral response to warnings to develop a tsunami warning message metric that could be used to guide revisions to tsunami warning messages of both warning centers. The message metric is divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order and Formatting and Receiver Characteristics. A message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the operational definitions of metric factors. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met. Using findings from this project and findings from a parallel NWS Warning Tiger Team study led by T. Nicolini, the WCATWC implemented the first of two phases of revisions to their warning messages in November 2012. A second phase of additional changes, which will fully implement the redesign of messages based on the metric, is in progress. The resulting messages will reflect current state-of-the-art knowledge on warning message effectiveness. Here we present the message metric; evidence-based rational for message factors; and examples of previous, existing and proposed messages.
Kamogawa, Masashi; Orihara, Yoshiaki; Tsurudome, Chiaki; Tomida, Yuto; Kanaya, Tatsuya; Ikeda, Daiki; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Kakinami, Yoshihiro; Liu, Jann-Yenq; Toyoda, Atsushi
2016-12-01
Ionospheric plasma disturbances after a large tsunami can be detected by measurement of the total electron content (TEC) between a Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite and its ground-based receivers. TEC depression lasting for a few minutes to tens of minutes termed as tsunami ionospheric hole (TIH) is formed above the tsunami source area. Here we describe the quantitative relationship between initial tsunami height and the TEC depression rate caused by a TIH from seven tsunamigenic earthquakes in Japan and Chile. We found that the percentage of TEC depression and initial tsunami height are correlated and the largest TEC depressions appear 10 to 20 minutes after the main shocks. Our findings imply that Ionospheric TEC measurement using the existing ground receiver networks could be used in an early warning system for near-field tsunamis that take more than 20 minutes to arrive in coastal areas.
Kamogawa, Masashi; Orihara, Yoshiaki; Tsurudome, Chiaki; Tomida, Yuto; Kanaya, Tatsuya; Ikeda, Daiki; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Kakinami, Yoshihiro; Liu, Jann-Yenq; Toyoda, Atsushi
2016-01-01
Ionospheric plasma disturbances after a large tsunami can be detected by measurement of the total electron content (TEC) between a Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite and its ground-based receivers. TEC depression lasting for a few minutes to tens of minutes termed as tsunami ionospheric hole (TIH) is formed above the tsunami source area. Here we describe the quantitative relationship between initial tsunami height and the TEC depression rate caused by a TIH from seven tsunamigenic earthquakes in Japan and Chile. We found that the percentage of TEC depression and initial tsunami height are correlated and the largest TEC depressions appear 10 to 20 minutes after the main shocks. Our findings imply that Ionospheric TEC measurement using the existing ground receiver networks could be used in an early warning system for near-field tsunamis that take more than 20 minutes to arrive in coastal areas. PMID:27905487
A tsunami early warning system for the coastal area modeling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Soebroto, Arief Andy; Sunaryo, Suhartanto, Ery
2015-04-01
The tsunami disaster is a potential disaster in the territory of Indonesia. Indonesia is an archipelago country and close to the ocean deep. The tsunami occurred in Aceh province in 2004. Early prevention efforts have been carried out. One of them is making "tsunami buoy" which has been developed by BPPT. The tool puts sensors on the ocean floor near the coast to detect earthquakes on the ocean floor. Detection results are transmitted via satellite by a transmitter placed floating on the sea surface. The tool will cost billions of dollars for each system. Another constraint was the transmitter theft "tsunami buoy" in the absence of guard. In this study of the system has a transmission system using radio frequency and focused on coastal areas where costs are cheaper, so that it can be applied at many beaches in Indonesia are potentially affected by the tsunami. The monitoring system sends the detection results to the warning system using a radio frequency with a capability within 3 Km. Test results on the sub module sensor monitoring system generates an error of 0.63% was taken 10% showed a good quality sensing. The test results of data transmission from the transceiver of monitoring system to the receiver of warning system produces 100% successful delivery and reception of data. The test results on the whole system to function 100% properly.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gregg, C. E.; Sorensen, J. H.; Vogt Sorensen, B.; Whitmore, P.; Johnston, D. M.
2016-12-01
Spurred in part by world-wide interest in improving warning messaging for and response to tsunamis in the wake of several catastrophic tsunamis since 2004 and growing interest at the US National Weather Service (NWS) to integrate social science into their Tsunami Program, the NWS Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii have made great progress toward enhancing tsunami messages. These include numerous products, among them being Tsunami Warnings, Tsunami Advisories and Tsunami Watches. Beginning in 2010 we have worked with US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Warning Coordination and Mitigation and Education Subcommittee members; Tsunami Program administrators; and NWS Weather Forecast Officers to conduct a series of focus group meetings with stakeholders in coastal areas of Alaska, American Samoa, California, Hawaii, North Carolina, Oregon, US Virgin Islands and Washington to understand end-user perceptions of existing messages and their existing needs in message products. We also reviewed research literature on behavioral response to warnings to develop a Tsunami Warning Message Metric that could be used to guide revisions to tsunami warning messages of both warning centers. The message metric is divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order, Formatting, and Receiver Characteristics. A sample message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the operational definitions of metric factors. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met, whether the message is a full length or short message. Incrementally, this work contributed to revisions in the format, content and style of message products issued by the National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC). Since that time, interest in short warning messages has continued to increase and in May 2016 the NTWC began efforts to revise message products to take advantage of recent NWS policy changes allowing use of mixed-case text
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gebert, Niklas; Post, Joachim
2010-05-01
The development of early warning systems are one of the key domains of adaptation to global environmental change and contribute very much to the development of societal reaction and adaptive capacities to deal with extreme events. Especially, Indonesia is highly exposed to tsunami. In average every three years small and medium size tsunamis occur in the region causing damage and death. In the aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004, the German and Indonesian government agreed on a joint cooperation to develop a People Centered End-to-End Early Warning System (GITEWS). The analysis of risk and vulnerability, as an important step in risk (and early warning) governance, is a precondition for the design of effective early warning structures by delivering the knowledge base for developing institutionalized quick response mechanisms of organizations involved in the issuing of a tsunami warning, and of populations exposed to react to warnings and to manage evacuation before the first tsunami wave hits. Thus, a special challenge for developing countries is the governance of complex cross-sectoral and cross-scale institutional, social and spatial processes and requirements for the conceptualization, implementation and optimization of a people centered tsunami early warning system. In support of this, the risk and vulnerability assessment of the case study aims at identifying those factors that constitute the causal structure of the (dis)functionality between the technological warning and the social response system causing loss of life during an emergency situation: Which social groups are likely to be less able to receive and respond to an early warning alert? And, are people able to evacuate in due time? Here, only an interdisciplinary research approach is capable to analyze the socio-spatial and environmental conditions of vulnerability and risk and to produce valuable results for decision makers and civil society to manage tsunami risk in the early warning context
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stough, T.; Green, D. S.
2017-12-01
This collaborative research to operations demonstration brings together the data and algorithms from NASA research, technology, and applications-funded projects to deliver relevant data streams, algorithms, predictive models, and visualization tools to the NOAA National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC). Using real-time GNSS data and models in an operational environment, we will test and evaluate an augmented capability for tsunami early warning. Each of three research groups collect data from a selected network of real-time GNSS stations, exchange data consisting of independently processed 1 Hz station displacements, and merge the output into a single, more accurate and reliable set. The resulting merged data stream is delivered from three redundant locations to the TWCs with a latency of 5-10 seconds. Data from a number of seismogeodetic stations with collocated GPS and accelerometer instruments are processed for displacements and seismic velocities and also delivered. Algorithms for locating and determining the magnitude of earthquakes as well as algorithms that compute the source function of a potential tsunami using this new data stream are included in the demonstration. The delivered data, algorithms, models and tools are hosted on NOAA-operated machines at both warning centers, and, once tested, the results will be evaluated for utility in improving the speed and accuracy of tsunami warnings. This collaboration has the potential to dramatically improve the speed and accuracy of the TWCs local tsunami information over the current seismometer-only based methods. In our first year of this work, we have established and deployed an architecture for data movement and algorithm installation at the TWC's. We are addressing data quality issues and porting algorithms into the TWCs operating environment. Our initial module deliveries will focus on estimating moment magnitude (Mw) from Peak Ground Displacement (PGD), within 2
The GNSS-based component for the new Indonesian tsunami early warning centre provided by GITEWS
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Falck, C.; Ramatschi, M.; Bartsch, M.; Merx, A.; Hoeberechts, J.; Rothacher, M.
2009-04-01
Introduction Nowadays GNSS technologies are used for a large variety of precise positioning applications. The accuracy can reach the mm level depending on the data analysis methods. GNSS technologies thus offer a high potential to support tsunami early warning systems, e.g., by detection of ground motions due to earthquakes and of tsunami waves on the ocean by GNSS instruments on a buoy. Although GNSS-based precise positioning is a standard method, it is not yet common to apply this technique under tight time constraints and, hence, in the absence of precise satellite orbits and clocks. The new developed GNSS-based component utilises on- and offshore measured GNSS data and is the first system of its kind that was integrated into an operational early warning system. (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre INATEWS, inaugurated at BMKG, Jakarta on November, 11th 2008) Motivation After the Tsunami event of 26th December 2004 the German government initiated the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) to develop a tsunami early warning system for Indonesia. The GFZ Potsdam (German Research Centre for Geosciences) as the consortial leader of GITEWS also covers several work packages, most of them related to sensor systems. The geodetic branch (Department 1) of the GFZ was assigned to develop a GNSS-based component. Brief system description The system covers all aspects from sensor stations with new developed hard- and software designs, manufacturing and installation of stations, real-time data transfer issues, a new developed automatic near real-time data processing and a graphical user interface for early warning centre operators including training on the system. GNSS sensors are installed on buoys, at tide gauges and as real-time reference stations (RTR stations), either stand-alone or co-located with seismic sensors. The GNSS data are transmitted to the warning centre where they are processed in a near real-time data processing chain. For
Toward tsunami early warning system in Indonesia by using rapid rupture durations estimation
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Madlazim
2012-06-20
Indonesia has Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS) since 2008. The Ina-TEWS has used automatic processing on hypocenter; Mwp, Mw (mB) and Mj. If earthquake occurred in Ocean, depth < 70 km and magnitude > 7, then Ina-TEWS announce early warning that the earthquake can generate tsunami. However, the announcement of the Ina-TEWS is still not accuracy. Purposes of this research are to estimate earthquake rupture duration of large Indonesia earthquakes that occurred in Indian Ocean, Java, Timor sea, Banda sea, Arafura sea and Pasific ocean. We analyzed at least 330 vertical seismogram recorded by IRIS-DMC network using a directmore » procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using simple measures on P-wave vertical seismograms on the velocity records, and the likelihood that the high-frequency, apparent rupture duration, T{sub dur}. T{sub dur} can be related to the critical parameters rupture length (L), depth (z), and shear modulus ({mu}) while T{sub dur} may be related to wide (W), slip (D), z or {mu}. Our analysis shows that the rupture duration has a stronger influence to generate tsunami than Mw and depth. The rupture duration gives more information on tsunami impact, Mo/{mu}, depth and size than Mw and other currently used discriminants. We show more information which known from the rupture durations. The longer rupture duration, the shallower source of the earthquake. For rupture duration greater than 50 s, the depth less than 50 km, Mw greater than 7, the longer rupture length, because T{sub dur} is proportional L and greater Mo/{mu}. Because Mo/{mu} is proportional L. So, with rupture duration information can be known information of the four parameters. We also suggest that tsunami potential is not directly related to the faulting type of source and for events that have rupture duration greater than 50 s, the earthquakes generated tsunami. With available real-time seismogram data, rapid calculation, rupture duration
Tsunami Early Warning for the Indian Ocean Region - Status and Outlook
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lauterjung, Joern; Rudloff, Alexander; Muench, Ute; Gitews Project Team
2010-05-01
The German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) for the Indian Ocean region has gone into operation in Indonesia in November 2008. The system includes a seismological network, together with GPS stations and a network of GPS buoys additionally equipped with ocean bottom pressure sensors and a tide gauge network. The different sensor systems have, for the most part, been installed and now deliver respective data either online or interactively upon request to the Warning Centre in Jakarta. Before 2011, however, the different components requires further optimization and fine tuning, local personnel needs to be trained and eventual problems in the daily operation have to be dealt with. Furthermore a company will be founded in the near future, which will guarantee a sustainable maintenance and operation of the system. This concludes the transfer from a temporarily project into a permanent service. This system established in Indonesia differs from other Tsunami Warning Systems through its application of modern scientific methods and technologies. New procedures for the fast and reliable determination of strong earthquakes, deformation monitoring by GPS, the modeling of tsunamis and the assessment of the situation have been implemented in the Warning System architecture. In particular, the direct incorporation of different sensors provides broad information already at the early stages of Early Warning thus resulting in a stable system and minimizing breakdowns and false alarms. The warning system is designed in an open and modular structure based on the most recent developments and standards of information technology. Therefore, the system can easily integrate additional sensor components to be used for other multi-hazard purposes e.g. meteorological and hydrological events. Up to now the German project group is cooperating in the Indian Ocean region with Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Iran, Yemen, Tanzania and Kenya to set up the equipment primarily for
Tsunami early warning system for the western coast of the Black Sea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ionescu, Constantin; Partheniu, Raluca; Cioflan, Carmen; Constantin, Angela; Danet, Anton; Diaconescu, Mihai; Ghica, Daniela; Grecu, Bogdan; Manea, Liviu; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Moldovan, Iren; Neagoe, Cristian; Radulian, Mircea; Raileanu, Victor; Verdes, Ioan
2014-05-01
The Black Sea area is liable to tsunamis generation and the statistics show that more than twenty tsunamis have been observed in the past. The last tsunami was observed on 31st of March 1901 in the western part of the Black Sea, in the Shabla area. An earthquake of magnitude generated at a depth of 15 km below the sea level , triggered tsunami waves of 5 m height and material losses as well. The oldest tsunami ever recorded close to the Romanian shore-line dates from year 104. This paper emphasises the participation of The National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) to the development of a tsunami warning system for the western cost of the Black Sea. In collaboration with the National Institute for Marine Geology and Geoecology (GeoEcoMar), the Institute of Oceanology and the Geological Institute, the last two belonging to the Bulgarian Academy of Science, NIEP has participated as partner, to the cross-border project "Set-up and implementation of key core components of a regional early-warning system for marine geohazards of risk to the Romanian-Bulgarian Black Sea coastal area - MARINEGEOHAZARDS", coordinated by GeoEcoMar. The main purpose of the project was the implementation of an integrated early-warning system accompanied by a common decision-support tool, and enhancement of regional technical capability, for the adequate detection, assessment, forecasting and rapid notification of natural marine geohazards for the Romanian-Bulgarian Black Sea cross-border area. In the last years, NIEP has increased its interest on the marine related hazards, such as tsunamis and, in collaboration with other institutions of Romania, is acting to strengthen the cooperation and data exchanges with institutions from the Black Sea surrounding countries which already have tsunami monitoring infrastructures. In this respect, NIEP has developed a coastal network for marine seismicity, by installing three new seismic stations in the coastal area of the Black Sea, Sea Level Sensors
Tsunami warnings: Understanding in Hawai'i
Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Paton, Douglas; Johnston, David M.; Swanson, D.A.; Yanagi, B.S.
2007-01-01
The devastating southeast Asian tsunami of December 26, 2004 has brought home the destructive consequences of coastal hazards in an absence of effective warning systems. Since the 1946 tsunami that destroyed much of Hilo, Hawai'i, a network of pole mounted sirens has been used to provide an early public alert of future tsunamis. However, studies in the 1960s showed that understanding of the meaning of siren soundings was very low and that ambiguity in understanding had contributed to fatalities in the 1960 tsunami that again destroyed much of Hilo. The Hawaiian public has since been exposed to monthly tests of the sirens for more than 25 years and descriptions of the system have been widely published in telephone books for at least 45 years. However, currently there remains some uncertainty in the level of public understanding of the sirens and their implications for behavioral response. Here, we show from recent surveys of Hawai'i residents that awareness of the siren tests and test frequency is high, but these factors do not equate with increased understanding of the meaning of the siren, which remains disturbingly low (13%). Furthermore, the length of time people have lived in Hawai'i is not correlated systematically with understanding of the meaning of the sirens. An additional issue is that warning times for tsunamis gene rated locally in Hawai'i will be of the order of minutes to tens of minutes and limit the immediate utility of the sirens. Natural warning signs of such tsunamis may provide the earliest warning to residents. Analysis of a survey subgroup from Hilo suggests that awareness of natural signs is only moderate, and a majority may expect notification via alerts provided by official sources. We conclude that a major change is needed in tsunami education, even in Hawai'i, to increase public understanding of, and effective response to, both future official alerts and natural warning signs of future tsunamis. ?? Springer 2006.
Bilve, Augustine; Nogareda, Francisco; Joshua, Cynthia; Ross, Lester; Betcha, Christopher; Durski, Kara; Fleischl, Juliet; Nilles, Eric
2014-11-01
On 6 February 2013, an 8.0 magnitude earthquake generated a tsunami that struck the Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, killing 10 people and displacing over 4700. A post-disaster assessment of the risk of epidemic disease transmission recommended the implementation of an early warning alert and response network (EWARN) to rapidly detect, assess and respond to potential outbreaks in the aftermath of the tsunami. Almost 40% of the Santa Cruz Islands' population were displaced by the disaster, and living in cramped temporary camps with poor or absent sanitation facilities and insufficient access to clean water. There was no early warning disease surveillance system. By 25 February, an EWARN was operational in five health facilities that served 90% of the displaced population. Eight priority diseases or syndromes were reported weekly; unexpected health events were reported immediately. Between 25 February and 19 May, 1177 target diseases or syndrome cases were reported. Seven alerts were investigated. No sustained transmission or epidemics were identified. Reporting compliance was 85%. The EWARN was then transitioned to the routine four-syndrome early warning disease surveillance system. It was necessary to conduct a detailed assessment to evaluate the risk and potential impact of serious infectious disease outbreaks, to assess whether and how enhanced early warning disease surveillance should be implemented. Local capacities and available resources should be considered in planning EWARN implementation. An EWARN can be an opportunity to establish or strengthen early warning disease surveillance capabilities.
Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products.
Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily
2015-10-28
Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. © 2015 The Authors.
Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products
Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily
2015-01-01
Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. PMID:26392620
Bilve, Augustine; Nogareda, Francisco; Joshua, Cynthia; Ross, Lester; Betcha, Christopher; Durski, Kara; Fleischl, Juliet
2014-01-01
Abstract Problem On 6 February 2013, an 8.0 magnitude earthquake generated a tsunami that struck the Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, killing 10 people and displacing over 4700. Approach A post-disaster assessment of the risk of epidemic disease transmission recommended the implementation of an early warning alert and response network (EWARN) to rapidly detect, assess and respond to potential outbreaks in the aftermath of the tsunami. Local setting Almost 40% of the Santa Cruz Islands’ population were displaced by the disaster, and living in cramped temporary camps with poor or absent sanitation facilities and insufficient access to clean water. There was no early warning disease surveillance system. Relevant changes By 25 February, an EWARN was operational in five health facilities that served 90% of the displaced population. Eight priority diseases or syndromes were reported weekly; unexpected health events were reported immediately. Between 25 February and 19 May, 1177 target diseases or syndrome cases were reported. Seven alerts were investigated. No sustained transmission or epidemics were identified. Reporting compliance was 85%. The EWARN was then transitioned to the routine four-syndrome early warning disease surveillance system. Lesson learnt It was necessary to conduct a detailed assessment to evaluate the risk and potential impact of serious infectious disease outbreaks, to assess whether and how enhanced early warning disease surveillance should be implemented. Local capacities and available resources should be considered in planning EWARN implementation. An EWARN can be an opportunity to establish or strengthen early warning disease surveillance capabilities. PMID:25378746
UncertiantyQuantificationinTsunamiEarlyWarningCalculations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anunziato, Alessandro
2016-04-01
The objective of the Tsunami calculations is the estimation of the impact of waves caused by large seismic events on the coasts and the determination of potential inundation areas. In the case of Early Warning Systems, i.e. systems that should allow to anticipate the possible effects and give the possibility to react consequently (i.e. issue evacuation of areas at risk), this must be done in very short time (minutes) to be effective. In reality, the above estimation includes several uncertainty factors which make the prediction extremely difficult. The quality of the very first estimations of the seismic parameters is not very precise: the uncertainty in the determination of the seismic components (location, magnitude and depth) decreases with time because as time passes it is possible to use more and more seismic signals and the event characterization becomes more precise. On the other hand other parameters that are necessary to establish for the performance of a calculation (i.e. fault mechanism) are difficult to estimate accurately also after hours (and in some cases remain unknown) and therefore this uncertainty remains in the estimated impact evaluations; when a quick tsunami calculation is necessary (early warning systems) the possibility to include any possible future variation of the conditions to establish the "worst case scenario" is particularly important. The consequence is that the number of uncertain parameters is so large that it is not easy to assess the relative importance of each of them and their effect on the predicted results. In general the complexity of system computer codes is generated by the multitude of different models which are assembled into a single program to give the global response for a particular phenomenon. Each of these model has associated a determined uncertainty coming from the application of that model to single cases and/or separated effect test cases. The difficulty in the prediction of a Tsunami calculation response is
A Case Study of Array-based Early Warning System for Tsunami Offshore Ventura, California
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xie, Y.; Meng, L.
2017-12-01
Extreme scenarios of M 7.5+ earthquakes on the Red Mountain and Pitas Point faults can potentially generate significant local tsunamis in southern California. The maximum water elevation could be as large as 10 m in the nearshore region of Oxnard and Santa Barbara. Recent development in seismic array processing enables rapid tsunami prediction and early warning based on the back-projection approach (BP). The idea is to estimate the rupture size by back-tracing the seismic body waves recorded by stations at local and regional distances. A simplified source model of uniform slip is constructed and used as an input for tsunami simulations that predict the tsunami wave height and arrival time. We demonstrate the feasibility of this approach in southern California by implementing it in a simulated real-time environment and applying to a hypothetical M 7.7 Dip-slip earthquake scenario on the Pitas Point fault. Synthetic seismograms are produced using the SCEC broadband platform based on the 3D SoCal community velocity model. We use S-wave instead of P-wave to avoid S-minus-P travel times shorter than rupture duration. Two clusters of strong-motion stations near Bakersfield and Palmdale are selected to determine the back-azimuth of the strongest high-frequency radiations (0.5-1 Hz). The back-azimuths of the two clusters are then intersected to locate the source positions. The rupture area is then approximated by enclosing these BP radiators with an ellipse or a polygon. Our preliminary results show that the extent of 1294 square kilometers rupture area and magnitude of 7.6 obtained by this approach is reasonably close to the 1849 square kilometers and 7.7 of the input model. The average slip of 7.3 m is then estimated according to the scaling relation between slip and rupture area, which is close to the actual average dislocation amount, 8.3 m. Finally, a tsunami simulation is conducted to assess the wave height and arrival time. The errors of -3 to +9 s in arrival time
> No Tsunami Warning, Advisory, Watch, or Threat There is No Tsunami Warning Loading Earthquake Layer Loading Alert Layer Earthquake Layer failed to load Alerts/Threats Layer failed to load Default View Alaska Hawaii Guam/CNMI American Samoa Caribbean North America South America
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Reißland, Sven; Schulz, Jana
2013-04-01
the ICG/NEAMTWS NEAMWave12 exercise for the Turkish and Portuguese tsunami exercise scenarios. Impressions gained with the standards compliant TRIDEC system during the exercise will be reported. The system version presented is based on event-driven architecture (EDA) and service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and is making use of relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system integrates OGC Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements. Using OGC Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture. The integration of a simulation system to identify affected areas is considered using the OGC Web Processing Service (WPS). Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) together with addressing information defined via the OASIS Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). This demonstration is linked with the talk 'Experiences with TRIDEC's Crisis Management Demonstrator in the Turkish NEAMWave12 exercise tsunami scenario' (EGU2013-2833) given in the session "Architecture of Future Tsunami Warning Systems" (NH5.6).
Implementation and Challenges of the Tsunami Warning System in the Western Mediterranean
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schindelé, F.; Gailler, A.; Hébert, H.; Loevenbruck, A.; Gutierrez, E.; Monnier, A.; Roudil, P.; Reymond, D.; Rivera, L.
2015-03-01
The French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT) has been in operation since 2012. It is contributing to the North-eastern and Mediterranean (NEAM) tsunami warning and mitigation system coordinated by the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, and benefits from data exchange with several foreign institutes. This center is supported by the French Government and provides French civil-protection authorities and member states of the NEAM region with relevant messages for assessing potential tsunami risk when an earthquake has occurred in the Western Mediterranean sea or the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean. To achieve its objectives, CENALT has developed a series of innovative techniques based on recent research results in seismology for early tsunami warning, monitoring of sea level variations and detection capability, and effective numerical computation of ongoing tsunamis.
Tsunami Warning Center in Turkey : Status Update 2012
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Meral Ozel, N.; Necmioglu, O.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kalafat, D.; Yilmazer, M.; Comoglu, M.; Sanli, U.; Gurbuz, C.; Erdik, M.
2012-04-01
This is an update to EGU2011-3094 informing on the progress of the establishment of a National Tsunami Warning Center in Turkey (NTWC-TR) under the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission - Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (IOC-ICG/NEAMTWS) initiative. NTWC-TR is integrated into the 24/7 operational National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC) of KOERI comprising 129 BB and 61 strong motion sensors. Based on an agreement with the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (DEMP), data from 10 BB stations located in the Aegean and Mediterranean Coast is now transmitted in real time to KOERI. Real-time data transmission from 6 primary and 10 auxiliary stations from the International Monitoring System will be in place in the very near future based on an agreement concluded with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) in 2011. In an agreement with a major Turkish GSM company, KOERI is enlarging its strong-motion network to promote real-time seismology and to extend Earthquake Early Warning system countrywide. 25 accelerometers (included in the number given above) have been purchased and installed at Base Transceiver Station Sites in coastal regions within the scope of this initiative. Data from 3 tide gauge stations operated by General Command of Mapping (GCM) is being transmitted to KOERI via satellite connection and the aim is to integrate all tide-gauge stations operated by GCM into NTWC-TR. A collaborative agreement has been signed with the European Commission - Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC) and MOD1 Tsunami Scenario Database and TAT (Tsunami Analysis Tool) are received by KOERI and user training was provided. The database and the tool are linked to SeisComp3 and currently operational. In addition KOERI is continuing the work towards providing contributions to JRC in order to develop an improved database
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Spahn, H.; Hoppe, M.; Vidiarina, H. D.; Usdianto, B.
2010-07-01
Five years after the 2004 tsunami, a lot has been achieved to make communities in Indonesia better prepared for tsunamis. This achievement is primarily linked to the development of the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS). However, many challenges remain. This paper describes the experience with local capacity development for tsunami early warning (TEW) in Indonesia, based on the activities of a pilot project. TEW in Indonesia is still new to disaster management institutions and the public, as is the paradigm of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The technology components of InaTEWS will soon be fully operational. The major challenge for the system is the establishment of clear institutional arrangements and capacities at national and local levels that support the development of public and institutional response capability at the local level. Due to a lack of information and national guidance, most local actors have a limited understanding of InaTEWS and DRR, and often show little political will and priority to engage in TEW. The often-limited capacity of local governments is contrasted by strong engagement of civil society organisations that opt for early warning based on natural warning signs rather than technology-based early warning. Bringing together the various actors, developing capacities in a multi-stakeholder cooperation for an effective warning system are key challenges for the end-to-end approach of InaTEWS. The development of local response capability needs to receive the same commitment as the development of the system's technology components. Public understanding of and trust in the system comes with knowledge and awareness on the part of the end users of the system and convincing performance on the part of the public service provider. Both sides need to be strengthened. This requires the integration of TEW into DRR, clear institutional arrangements, national guidance and intensive support for capacity development at local levels as well as
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tanioka, Yuichiro; Miranda, Greyving Jose Arguello; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Fujii, Yushiro
2017-08-01
Large earthquakes, such as the Mw 7.7 1992 Nicaragua earthquake, have occurred off the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America and have generated distractive tsunamis along these coasts. It is necessary to determine appropriate fault models before large tsunamis hit the coast. In this study, first, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and then an appropriate fault model was determined from the fault parameters and scaling relationships with a depth dependent rigidity. The method was tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America. The tsunami numerical simulations were carried out from the determined fault models. We found that the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas were reasonably well explained by the computed ones. Therefore, our method for tsunami early warning purpose should work to estimate a fault model which reproduces tsunami heights near the coast of El Salvador and Nicaragua due to large earthquakes in the subduction zone.
U.S. Tsunami Warning System: Advancements since the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Whitmore, P.
2009-12-01
The U.S. government embarked on a strengthening program for the U.S. Tsunami Warning System (TWS) in the aftermath of the disastrous 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The program was designed to improve several facets of the U.S. TWS, including: upgrade of the coastal sea level network - 16 new stations plus higher transmission rates; expansion of the deep ocean tsunameter network - 7 sites increased to 39; upgrade of seismic networks - both USGS and Tsunami Warning Center (TWC); increase of TWC staff to allow 24x7 coverage at two centers; development of an improved tsunami forecast system; increased preparedness in coastal communities; expansion of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center facility; and improvement of the tsunami data archive effort at the National Geophysical Data Center. The strengthening program has been completed and has contributed to the many improvements attained in the U.S. TWS since 2004. Some of the more significant enhancements to the program are: the number of sea level and seismic sites worldwide available to the TWCs has more than doubled; the TWC areas-of-responsibility expanded to include the U.S./Canadian Atlantic coasts, Indian Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and U.S. Arctic coast; event response time decreased by approximately one-half; product accuracy has improved; a tsunami forecast system developed by NOAA capable of forecasting inundation during an event has been delivered to the TWCs; warning areas are now defined by pre-computed or forecasted threat versus distance or travel time, significantly reducing the amount of coast put in a warning; new warning dissemination techniques have been implemented to reach a broader audience in less time; tsunami product content better reflects the expected impact level; the number of TsunamiReady communities has quadrupled; and the historical data archive has increased in quantity and accuracy. In addition to the strengthening program, the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP
Global Tsunami Warning System Development Since 2004
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weinstein, S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.; McCreery, C.; Hirshorn, B. F.
2014-12-01
The 9.1 Mw Great Sumatra Earthquake of Dec. 26, 2004, generated the most destructive tsunami in history killing 227,000 people along Indian Ocean coastlines and was recorded by sea-level instruments world-wide. This tragedy showed the Indian Ocean needed a tsunami warning system to prevent another tragedy on this scale. The Great Sumatra Earthquake also highlighted the need for tsunami warning systems in other ocean basins. Instruments for recording earthquakes and sea-level data useful for tsunami monitoring did not exist outside of the Pacific Ocean in 2004. Seismometers were few in number, and even fewer were high-quality long period broadband instruments. Nor was much of their data made available to the US tsunami warning centers (TWCs). In 2004 the US TWCs relied exclusively on instrumentation provided and maintained by IRIS and the USGS for areas outside of the Pacific.Since 2004, the US TWCs and their partners have made substantial improvements to seismic and sea-level monitoring networks with the addition of new and better instruments, densification of existing networks, better communications infrastructure, and improved data sharing among tsunami warning centers. In particular, the number of sea-level stations transmitting data in near real-time and the amount of seismic data available to the tsunami warning centers has more than tripled. The DART network that consisted of a half-dozen Pacific stations in 2004 now totals nearly 60 stations worldwide. Earthquake and tsunami science has progressed as well. It took nearly three weeks to obtain the first reliable estimates of the 2004 Sumatra Earthquake's magnitude. Today, thanks to improved seismic networks and modern computing power, TWCs use the W-phase seismic moment method to determine accurate earthquake magnitudes and focal mechanisms for great earthquakes within 25 minutes. TWC scientists have also leveraged these modern computers to generate tsunami forecasts in a matter of minutes.Progress towards a
TRIDEC Cloud - a Web-based Platform for Tsunami Early Warning tested with NEAMWave14 Scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hammitzsch, Martin; Spazier, Johannes; Reißland, Sven; Necmioglu, Ocal; Comoglu, Mustafa; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Carrilho, Fernando; Wächter, Joachim
2015-04-01
In times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms introduced by information and communications technology (ICT) have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in research projects new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based platform - the TRIDEC Cloud - to open up new prospects for EWS. The platform in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. It merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services for instant tsunami propagation calculations and automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The TRIDEC Cloud can be accessed in two different modes, the monitoring mode and the exercise-and-training mode. The monitoring mode provides important functionality required to act in a real event. So far, the monitoring mode integrates historic and real-time sea level data and latest earthquake information. The integration of sources is supported by a simple and secure interface. The exercise and training mode enables training and exercises with virtual scenarios. This mode disconnects real world systems and connects with a virtual environment that receives virtual earthquake information and virtual sea level data re-played by a scenario player. Thus operators and other stakeholders are able to train skills and prepare for real events and large exercises. The GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), and the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) have used the opportunity provided by NEAMWave14 to test the TRIDEC Cloud as a collaborative activity based on previous partnership and commitments at
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bartsch, M.; Merx, A.; Falck, C.; Ramatschi, M.
2010-05-01
Introduction Within the GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project a near real-time GNSS processing system has been developed, which analizes on- and offshore measured GNSS data. It is the first system of its kind that was integrated into an operational tsunami early warning system. (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre INATEWS, inaugurated at BMKG Jakarta on November, 11th 2008) Brief system description The GNSS data to be processed are received from sensors (GNSS antenna and receiver) installed on buoys, at tide gauges and as real-time reference stations (RTR stations), either stand-alone or co-located with seismic sensors. The GNSS data are transmitted to the warning centre in real-time as a stream (RTR stations) or file-based and are processed in a near real-time data processing chain. The fully automatized system uses the BERNESE GPS software as processing core. Kinematic coordinate timeseries with a resolution of 1 Hz (landbased stations) and 1/3 Hz (buoys) are estimated every five minutes. In case of a recently occured earthquake the processing interval decreases from five to two minutes. All stations are processed with the relative technique (baseline-technique) using GITEWS-stations and stations available via IGS as reference. The most suitable reference stations are choosen by querying a database where continiously monitored quality data of GNSS observations are stored. In case of an earthquake at least one reference station should be located on a different tectonic plate to ensure that relative movements can be detected. The primary source for satellite orbit information is the IGS IGU product. If this source is not available for any reason, the system switches automatically to other orbit sources like CODE products or broadcast ephemeris data. For sensors on land the kinematic coordinates are used to detect deviations from their normal, mean coordinates. The deviations or so called displacements are indicators for land mass
Tsunami Early Warning System in Italy and involvement of local communities
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto; Zaniboni, Filippo
2010-05-01
Italy is characterized by a great coastal extension, and by a series of possible tsunamigenic sources: many active faults, onshore and offshore, also near the shoreline and in shallow water, active volcanoes (Etna, Stromboli, Campi Flegrei for example), continental margins where landslides can occur. All these threats justify the establishment of a tsunami early warning system (TEWS), especially in Southern Italy where most of the sources capable of large disastrous tsunamis are located. One of the main characteristics of such sources, that however is common to other countries in not only in the Mediterranean, is their vicinity to the coast, which means that the tsunami lead time for attacking the coastal system is expected to be within 10-15 minutes in several cases. This constraint of time imposes to conceive and adopt specific plans aiming at a quick tsunami detection and alert dissemination for the TEWS, since obviously the TEWS alert must precede and not follow the tsunami first arrival. The need to be quick introduces the specific problem of uncertainty that is though inherent to any forecast system, but it is a very big issue especially when time available is short, since crucial decisions have to be taken in presence of incomplete data and incomplete processing. This is just the big problem that has to be faced by a system like the a TEWS in Italy. Uncertainties can be reduced by increasing the capabilities of the tsunami monitoring system by densifying the traditional instrumental networks (e.g. by empowering seismic and especially coastal and offshore sea-level observation systems) in the identified tsunamigenic source areas. However, uncertainties, though are expected to have a decreasing trend as time passes after the tsunami initiation, cannot be eliminated and have to be appropriately dealt with: uncertainties lead to under- and overestimation of the tsunami size and arrival times, and to missing or to false alerts, or in other terms they degrade the
Towards an Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in the Caribbean
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Vanacore, E. A.
2017-12-01
The Caribbean region (CR) has a documented history of large damaging earthquakes and tsunamis that have affected coastal areas, including the events of Jamaica in 1692, Virgin Islands in 1867, Puerto Rico in 1918, the Dominican Republic in 1946 and Haiti in 2010. There is clear evidence that tsunamis have been triggered by large earthquakes that deformed the ocean floor around the Caribbean Plate boundary. The CR is monitored jointly by national/regional/local seismic, geodetic and sea level networks. All monitoring institutions are participating in the UNESCO ICG/Caribe EWS, the purpose of this initiative is to minimize loss of life and destruction of property, and to mitigate against catastrophic economic impacts via promoting local research, real time (RT) earthquake, geodetic and sea level data sharing and improving warning capabilities and enhancing education and outreach strategies. Currently more than, 100 broad-band seismic, 65 sea levels and 50 GPS high rate stations are available in real or near real-time. These real-time streams are used by Local/Regional or Worldwide detection and warning institutions to provide earthquake source parameters in a timely manner. Currently, any Caribbean event detected to have a magnitude greater than 4.5 is evaluated, and sea level is measured, by the TWC for tsumanigenic potential. The regional cooperation is motivated both by research interests as well as geodetic, seismic and tsunami hazard monitoring and warning. It will allow the imaging of the tectonic structure of the Caribbean region to a high resolution which will consequently permit further understanding of the seismic source properties for moderate and large events and the application of this knowledge to procedures of civil protection. To reach its goals, the virtual network has been designed following the highest technical standards: BB sensors, 24 bits A/D converters with 140 dB dynamic range, real-time telemetry. Here we will discuss the state of the PR
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sardina, V.
2012-12-01
The US Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) have traditionally generated their tsunami message products primarily as blocks of text then tagged with headers that identify them on each particular communications' (comms) circuit. Each warning center has a primary area of responsibility (AOR) within which it has an authoritative role regarding parameters such as earthquake location and magnitude. This means that when a major tsunamigenic event occurs the other warning centers need to quickly access the earthquake parameters issued by the authoritative warning center before issuing their message products intended for customers in their own AOR. Thus, within the operational context of the TWCs the scientists on duty have an operational need to access the information contained in the message products issued by other warning centers as quickly as possible. As a solution to this operational problem we designed and implemented a C++ software package that allows scanning for and parsing the entire suite of tsunami message products issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC), and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The scanning and parsing classes composing the resulting C++ software package allow parsing both non-official message products(observatory messages) routinely issued by the TWCs, and all official tsunami message products such as tsunami advisories, watches, and warnings. This software package currently allows scientists on duty at the PTWC to automatically retrieve the parameters contained in tsunami messages issued by WCATWC, JMA, or PTWC itself. Extension of the capabilities of the classes composing the software package would make it possible to generate XML and CAP compliant versions of the TWCs' message products until new messaging software natively adds this capabilities. Customers who receive the TWCs' tsunami message products could also use the package to automatically retrieve information from
Local Tsunami Warnings using GNSS and Seismic Data.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hirshorn, B. F.
2017-12-01
Tsunami warning Centers (TWC's) must issue warnings based on imperfect and limited data. Uncertainties increase in the near field, where a tsunami reaches the closest coastal populations to the causative earthquake in a half hour or less. In the absence of a warning, the usual advice is "When the ground shakes so severely that it's difficult to stand, move uphill and away from the coast." But, what if the shaking is not severe? If, for example, the earthquake ruptures slowly (producing very little perceived shaking) this advice will fail. Unfortunately these "Tsunami" earthquakes are not rare: tsunamis from slow earthquakes off of Nicaragua in 1992, and Java in 1994 and 2006, killed 179, 250 and 637 people, respectively, even though very few nearby coastal residents felt any strong ground shaking. TWC's must therefore warn the closest coastal populations to the causative earthquake, where over 80% of the Tsunami based casualties typically occur, as soon possible after earthquake rupture begins. The NWS Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) currently issue local Tsunami Warnings for the US West Coast, Hawaii, and the Puerto Rico - Virgin Island region within 2-4 minutes after origin time. However, our initial short period Magnitude estimates saturate over about Mw 6.5, and Mwp underestimates Mw for events larger than about Mw 7.5 when using data in the 0 to 3 degree epicentral distance range, severely underestimating the danger of a potential Tsunami in the near field. Coastal GNSS networks complement seismic monitoring networks, and enable unsaturated estimates of Mw within 2-3 minutes of earthquake origin time. NASA/JPL, SIO, USGS, CWU, UCB and UW, with funding and guidance from NASA, and leveraging the USGS funded ShakeAlert development, have been working with the National Weather Service TWC's to incorporate real-time GNSS and seismogeodetic data into their operations. These data will soon provide unsaturated estimates of moment magnitude, Centroid Moment Tensor
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tinti, S.; Armigliato, A.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.
2012-04-01
One of the most challenging goals that the geo-scientific community is facing after the catastrophic tsunami occurred on December 2004 in the Indian Ocean is to develop the so-called "next generation" Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Indeed, the meaning of "next generation" does not refer to the aim of a TEWS, which obviously remains to detect whether a tsunami has been generated or not by a given source and, in the first case, to send proper warnings and/or alerts in a suitable time to all the countries and communities that can be affected by the tsunami. Instead, "next generation" identifies with the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) that, in general terms, relies on 1) an integrated set of seismic, geodetic and marine sensors whose objective is to detect and characterise the possible tsunamigenic sources and to monitor instrumentally the time and space evolution of the generated tsunami, 2) databases of pre-computed numerical tsunami scenarios to be suitably combined based on the information coming from the sensor environment and to be used to forecast the degree of exposition of different coastal places both in the near- and in the far-field, 3) a proper overall (software) system architecture. The EU-FP7 TRIDEC Project aims at developing such a DSS and has selected two test areas in the Euro-Mediterranean region, namely the western Iberian margin and the eastern Mediterranean (Turkish coasts). In this study, we discuss the strategies that are being adopted in TRIDEC to build the databases of pre-computed tsunami scenarios and we show some applications to the western Iberian margin. In particular, two different databases are being populated, called "Virtual Scenario Database" (VSDB) and "Matching Scenario Database" (MSDB). The VSDB contains detailed simulations of few selected earthquake-generated tsunamis. The cases provided by the members of the VSDB are computed "real events"; in other words, they represent the unknowns that the TRIDEC
Geoethical issues involved in Tsunami Warning System concepts and operations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Charalampakis, Marinos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Tinti, Stefano
2016-04-01
The main goal of a Tsunami Warning System (TWS) is to mitigate the effect of an incoming tsunami by alerting coastal population early enough to allow people to evacuate safely from inundation zones. Though this representation might seem oversimplified, nonetheless, achieving successfully this goal requires a positive synergy of geoscience, communication, emergency management, technology, education, social sciences, politics. Geoethical issues arise always when there is an interaction between geoscience and society, and TWS is a paradigmatic case where interaction is very strong and is made critical because a) the formulation of the tsunami alert has to be made in a time as short as possible and therefore on uncertain data, and b) any evaluation error (underestimation or overestimation) can lead to serious (and sometimes catastrophic) consequences involving wide areas and a large amount of population. From the geoethical point of view three issues are critical: how to (i) combine forecasts and uncertainties reasonably and usefully, (ii) cope and possibly solve the dilemma whether it is better over-alerting or under-alerting population and (iii) deal with responsibility and liability of geoscientists, TWS operators, emergency operators and coastal population. The discussion will be based on the experience of the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Center (HL-NTWC, Greece), which operates on 24/7 basis as a special unit of the Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, and acts also as Candidate Tsunami Service Provider (CTSP) in the framework of the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) of the IOC/UNESCO. Since August 2012, when HL-NTWC was officially declared as operational, 14 tsunami warning messages have been disseminated to a large number of subscribers after strong submarine earthquakes occurring in Greece and elsewhere in the eastern Mediterranean. It is recognized that the alerting process
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tanioka, Y.; Miranda, G. J. A.; Gusman, A. R.
2017-12-01
Recently, tsunami early warning technique has been improved using tsunami waveforms observed at the ocean bottom pressure gauges such as NOAA DART system or DONET and S-NET systems in Japan. However, for tsunami early warning of near field tsunamis, it is essential to determine appropriate source models using seismological analysis before large tsunamis hit the coast, especially for tsunami earthquakes which generated significantly large tsunamis. In this paper, we develop a technique to determine appropriate source models from which appropriate tsunami inundation along the coast can be numerically computed The technique is tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off Central America. In this study, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, then the fault length and width were determined from scaling relationships. At first, the slip amount was calculated from the seismic moment with a constant rigidity of 3.5 x 10**10N/m2. The tsunami numerical simulation was carried out and compared with the observed tsunami. For the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake, the computed tsunami was much smaller than the observed one. For the 2004 El Astillero earthquake, the computed tsunami was overestimated. In order to solve this problem, we constructed a depth dependent rigidity curve, similar to suggested by Bilek and Lay (1999). The curve with a central depth estimated by the W-phase inversion was used to calculate the slip amount of the fault model. Using those new slip amounts, tsunami numerical simulation was carried out again. Then, the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas for the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake were well explained by the computed one. The other tsunamis from the other three earthquakes were also reasonably well explained
Real-time determination of the worst tsunami scenario based on Earthquake Early Warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Furuya, Takashi; Koshimura, Shunichi; Hino, Ryota; Ohta, Yusaku; Inoue, Takuya
2016-04-01
In recent years, real-time tsunami inundation forecasting has been developed with the advances of dense seismic monitoring, GPS Earth observation, offshore tsunami observation networks, and high-performance computing infrastructure (Koshimura et al., 2014). Several uncertainties are involved in tsunami inundation modeling and it is believed that tsunami generation model is one of the great uncertain sources. Uncertain tsunami source model has risk to underestimate tsunami height, extent of inundation zone, and damage. Tsunami source inversion using observed seismic, geodetic and tsunami data is the most effective to avoid underestimation of tsunami, but needs to expect more time to acquire the observed data and this limitation makes difficult to terminate real-time tsunami inundation forecasting within sufficient time. Not waiting for the precise tsunami observation information, but from disaster management point of view, we aim to determine the worst tsunami source scenario, for the use of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and mapping, using the seismic information of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) that can be obtained immediately after the event triggered. After an earthquake occurs, JMA's EEW estimates magnitude and hypocenter. With the constraints of earthquake magnitude, hypocenter and scaling law, we determine possible multi tsunami source scenarios and start searching the worst one by the superposition of pre-computed tsunami Green's functions, i.e. time series of tsunami height at offshore points corresponding to 2-dimensional Gaussian unit source, e.g. Tsushima et al., 2014. Scenario analysis of our method consists of following 2 steps. (1) Searching the worst scenario range by calculating 90 scenarios with various strike and fault-position. From maximum tsunami height of 90 scenarios, we determine a narrower strike range which causes high tsunami height in the area of concern. (2) Calculating 900 scenarios that have different strike, dip, length
Hazard Assessment and Early Warning of Tsunamis: Lessons from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Satake, K.
2012-12-01
The March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M 9.0) was the largest earthquake in Japanese history, and was the best recorded subduction-zone earthquakes in the world. In particular, various offshore geophysical observations revealed large horizontal and vertical seafloor movements, and the tsunami was recorded on high-quality, high-sampling gauges. Analysis of such tsunami waveforms shows a temporal and spatial slip distribution during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The fault rupture started near the hypocenter and propagated into both deep and shallow parts of the plate interface. Very large, ~25 m, slip off Miyagi on the deep part of plate interface corresponds to an interplate earthquake of M 8.8, the location and size similar to 869 Jogan earthquake model, and was responsible for the large tsunami inundation in Sendai and Ishinomaki plains. Huge slip, more than 50 m, occurred on the shallow part near the trench axis ~3 min after the earthquake origin time. This delayed shallow rupture (M 8.8) was similar to the 1896 "tsunami earthquake," and was responsible for the large tsunami on the northern Sanriku coast, measured at ~100 km north of the largest slip. Thus the Tohoku earthquake can be decomposed into an interplate earthquake and the triggered "tsunami earthquake." The Japan Meteorological Agency issued tsunami warning 3 minutes after the earthquake, and saved many lives. However, their initial estimation of tsunami height was underestimated, because the earthquake magnitude was initially estimated as M 7.9, hence the computed tsunami heights were lower. The JMA attempts to improve the tsunami warning system, including technical developments to estimate the earthquake size in a few minutes by using various and redundant information, to deploy and utilize the offshore tsunami observations, and to issue a warning based on the worst case scenario if a possibility of giant earthquake exists. Predicting a trigger of another large earthquake would still be a challenge
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
González-Carrasco, J. F.; Benavente, R. F.; Zelaya, C.; Núñez, C.; Gonzalez, G.
2017-12-01
The 2017 Mw 8.1, Tehuantepec earthquake generated a moderated tsunami, which was registered in near-field tide gauges network activating a tsunami threat state for Mexico issued by PTWC. In the case of Chile, the forecast of tsunami waves indicate amplitudes less than 0.3 meters above the tide level, advising an informative state of threat, without activation of evacuation procedures. Nevertheless, during sea level monitoring of network we detect wave amplitudes (> 0.3 m) indicating a possible change of threat state. Finally, NTWS maintains informative level of threat based on mathematical filtering analysis of sea level records. After 2010 Mw 8.8, Maule earthquake, the Chilean National Tsunami Warning System (NTWS) has increased its observational capabilities to improve early response. Most important operational efforts have focused on strengthening tide gauge network for national area of responsibility. Furthermore, technological initiatives as Integrated Tsunami Prediction and Warning System (SIPAT) has segmented the area of responsibility in blocks to focus early warning and evacuation procedures on most affected coastal areas, while maintaining an informative state for distant areas of near-field earthquake. In the case of far-field events, NTWS follow the recommendations proposed by Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), including a comprehensive monitoring of sea level records, such as tide gauges and DART (Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami) buoys, to evaluate the state of tsunami threat in the area of responsibility. The main objective of this work is to analyze the first-order physical processes involved in the far-field propagation and coastal impact of tsunami, including implications for decision-making of NTWS. To explore our main question, we construct a finite-fault model of the 2017, Mw 8.1 Tehuantepec earthquake. We employ the rupture model to simulate a transoceanic tsunami modeled by Neowave2D. We generate synthetic time series at
Warnings and reactions to the Tohoku tsunami in Hawaii
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Houghton, B. F.; Gregg, C. E.
2012-12-01
The 2011 Tohoku tsunami was the first chance within the USA to document and interpret large-scale response and protective action behavior with regard to a large, destructive tsunami since 1964. The 2011 tsunami offered a unique, short-lived opportunity to transform our understanding of individual and collective behavior in the US in response to a well-publicized tsunami warning and, in particular, to look at the complex interplay of official information sources, informal warnings and information-seeking in communities with significant physical impact from the 2011 tsunami. This study is focused in Hawaii, which suffered significant ($30 M), but localized damage, from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and underwent a full-scale tsunami evacuation. The survey contrasts three Hawaiian communities which either experienced significant tsunami damage (Kona) or little physical impact (Hilo, Honolulu). It also contrasts a long-established local community with experience of evacuation, destruction and loss of life in two tsunamis (Hilo) with a metropolitan population with a large visitor presence (Honolulu) that has not experienced a damaging tsunami in decades. Many factors such as personal perceptions of risk, beliefs, past exposure to the hazard, forecast uncertainty, trust in information sources, channels of transmission of information, the need for message confirmation, responsibilities, obligations, mobility, the ability to prepare, the availability of transportation and transport routes, and an acceptable evacuation center affected behavior. We provide new information on how people reacted to warnings and tsunamis, especially with regard to social integration of official warnings and social media. The results of this study will strengthen community resilience to tsunamis, working with emergency managers to integrate strengths and weaknesses of the public responses with official response plans.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano
2013-04-01
TRIDEC is a EU-FP7 Project whose main goal is, in general terms, to develop suitable strategies for the management of crises possibly arising in the Earth management field. The general paradigms adopted by TRIDEC to develop those strategies include intelligent information management, the capability of managing dynamically increasing volumes and dimensionality of information in complex events, and collaborative decision making in systems that are typically very loosely coupled. The two areas where TRIDEC applies and tests its strategies are tsunami early warning and industrial subsurface development. In the field of tsunami early warning, TRIDEC aims at developing a Decision Support System (DSS) that integrates 1) a set of seismic, geodetic and marine sensors devoted to the detection and characterisation of possible tsunamigenic sources and to monitoring the time and space evolution of the generated tsunami, 2) large-volume databases of pre-computed numerical tsunami scenarios, 3) a proper overall system architecture. Two test areas are dealt with in TRIDEC: the western Iberian margin and the eastern Mediterranean. In this study, we focus on the western Iberian margin with special emphasis on the Portuguese coasts. The strategy adopted in TRIDEC plans to populate two different databases, called "Virtual Scenario Database" (VSDB) and "Matching Scenario Database" (MSDB), both of which deal only with earthquake-generated tsunamis. In the VSDB we simulate numerically few large-magnitude events generated by the major known tectonic structures in the study area. Heterogeneous slip distributions on the earthquake faults are introduced to simulate events as "realistically" as possible. The members of the VSDB represent the unknowns that the TRIDEC platform must be able to recognise and match during the early crisis management phase. On the other hand, the MSDB contains a very large number (order of thousands) of tsunami simulations performed starting from many different
NOAA/West coast and Alaska Tsunami warning center Atlantic Ocean response criteria
Whitmore, P.; Refidaff, C.; Caropolo, M.; Huerfano-Moreno, V.; Knight, W.; Sammler, W.; Sandrik, A.
2009-01-01
West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakesoccurring in the Atlantic and Caribbean basins are presented. Initial warning center decisions are based on an earthquake's location, magnitude, depth, distance from coastal locations, and precomputed threat estimates based on tsunami models computed from similar events. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of sub-sea landslides).The new criteria require development of a threat data base which sets warning or advisory zones based on location, magnitude, and pre-computed tsunami models. The models determine coastal tsunami amplitudes based on likely tsunami source parameters for a given event. Based on the computed amplitude, warning and advisory zones are pre-set.
Tsunami Warning Protocol for Eruptions of Augustine Volcano, Cook Inlet, Alaska
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Whitmore, P.; Neal, C.; Nyland, D.; Murray, T.; Power, J.
2006-12-01
Augustine is an island volcano that has generated at least one tsunami. During its January 2006 eruption coastal residents of lower Cook Inlet became concerned about tsunami potential. To address this concern, NOAA's West Coast/ Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WC/ATWC) and the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) jointly developed a tsunami warning protocol for the most likely scenario for tsunami generation at Augustine: a debris avalanche into the Cook Inlet. Tsunami modeling indicates that a wave generated at Augustine volcano could reach coastal communities in approximately 55 minutes. If a shallow seismic event with magnitude greater than 4.5 occurred near Augustine and the AVO had set the level of concern color code to orange or red, the WC/ATWC would immediately issue a warning for the lower Cook Inlet. Given the short tsunami travel times involved, potentially affected communities would be provided as much lead time as possible. Large debris avalanches that could trigger a tsunami in lower Cook Inlet are expected to be accompanied by a strong seismic signal. Seismograms produced by these debris avalanches have unique spectral characteristics. After issuing a warning, the WC/ATWC would compare the observed waveform with known debris avalanches, and would consult with AVO to further evaluate the event using AVO's on-island networks (web cameras, seismic network, etc) to refine or cancel the warning. After the 2006 eruptive phase ended, WC/ATWC, with support from AVO and the University of Alaska Tsunami Warning and Environmental Observatory for Alaska program (TWEAK), developed and installed "splash-gauges" which will provide confirmation of tsunami generation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Shiro, B.; Ward, B.
2013-12-01
Outreach and education save lives, and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) has a new tool--a YouTube Channel--to advance its mission to protect lives and property from dangerous tsunamis. Such outreach and education is critical for coastal populations nearest an earthquake since they may not get an official warning before a tsunami reaches them and will need to know what to do when they feel strong shaking. Those who live far enough away to receive useful official warnings and react to them, however, can also benefit from PTWC's education and outreach efforts. They can better understand a tsunami warning message when they receive one, can better understand the danger facing them, and can better anticipate how events will unfold while the warning is in effect. The same holds true for emergency managers, who have the authority to evacuate the public they serve, and for the news media, critical partners in disseminating tsunami hazard information. PTWC's YouTube channel supplements its formal outreach and education efforts by making its computer animations available 24/7 to anyone with an Internet connection. Though the YouTube channel is only a month old (as of August 2013), it should rapidly develop a large global audience since similar videos on PTWC's Facebook page have reached over 70,000 viewers during organized media events, while PTWC's official web page has received tens of millions of hits during damaging tsunamis. These animations are not mere cartoons but use scientific data and calculations to render graphical depictions of real-world phenomena as accurately as possible. This practice holds true whether the animation is a simple comparison of historic earthquake magnitudes or a complex simulation cycling through thousands of high-resolution data grids to render tsunami waves propagating across an entire ocean basin. PTWC's animations fall into two broad categories. The first group illustrates concepts about seismology and how it is critical to
Determination of Tsunami Warning Criteria for Current Velocity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, R.; Wang, D.
2015-12-01
Present Tsunami warning issuance largely depends on an event's predicted wave height and inundation depth. Specifically, a warning is issued if the on-shore wave height is greater than 1m. This project examines whether any consideration should be given to current velocity. We apply the idea of force balance to determine theoretical minimum velocity thresholds for injuring people and damaging properties as a function of wave height. Results show that even at a water depth of less than 1m, a current velocity of 2 m/s is enough to pose a threat to humans and cause potential damage to cars and houses. Next, we employ a 1-dimensional shallow water model to simulate Tsunamis with various amplitudes and an assumed wavelength of 250km. This allows for the profiling of current velocity and wave height behavior as the Tsunamis reach shore. We compare this data against our theoretical thresholds to see if any real world scenarios would be dangerous to people and properties. We conclude that for such Tsunamis, the present warning criteria are effective at protecting people against larger events with amplitude greater than ~0.3m. However, for events with amplitude less than ~0.2m, it is possible to have waves less than 1m with current velocity high enough to endanger humans. Thus, the inclusion of current velocity data would help the present Tsunami warning criteria become more robust and efficient, especially for smaller Tsunami events.
Tsunami Warning Services for the U.S. and Canadian Atlantic Coasts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Whitmore, P. M.; Knight, W.
2008-12-01
In January 2005, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) developed a tsunami warning program for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Within a year, this program extended further to the Atlantic coast of Canada and the Caribbean Sea. Warning services are provided to U.S. and Canadian coasts (including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands) by the NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) while the NOAA/Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) provides services for non-U.S. entities in the Caribbean Basin. The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is also an active partner in the Caribbean Basin warning system. While the nature of the tsunami threat in the Atlantic Basin is different than in the Pacific, the warning system philosophy is similar. That is, initial messages are based strictly on seismic data so that information is provided to those at greatest risk as fast as possible while supplementary messages are refined with sea level observations and forecasts when possible. The Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) acquire regional seismic data through many agencies, such as the United States Geological Survey, Earthquakes Canada, regional seismic networks, and the PRSN. Seismic data quantity and quality are generally sufficient throughout most of the Atlantic area-of-responsibility to issue initial information within five minutes of origin time. Sea level data are mainly provided by the NOAA/National Ocean Service. Coastal tide gage coverage is generally denser along the Atlantic coast than in the Pacific. Seven deep ocean pressure sensors (DARTs), operated by the National Weather Service (NWS) National Data Buoy Center, are located in the Atlantic Basin (5 in the Atlantic Ocean, 1 in the Caribbean, and 1 in the Gulf of Mexico). The DARTs provide TWCs with the means to verify tsunami generation in the Atlantic and provide critical data with which to calibrate forecast models. Tsunami warning response criteria in the Atlantic Basin
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's Response to the Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weinstein, S. A.; Becker, N. C.; Shiro, B.; Koyanagi, K. K.; Sardina, V.; Walsh, D.; Wang, D.; McCreery, C. S.; Fryer, G. J.; Cessaro, R. K.; Hirshorn, B. F.; Hsu, V.
2011-12-01
The largest Pacific basin earthquake in 47 years, and also the largest magnitude earthquake since the Sumatra 2004 earthquake, struck off of the east coast of the Tohoku region of Honshu, Japan at 5:46 UTC on 11 March 2011. The Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) generated a massive tsunami with runups of up to 40m along the Tohoku coast. The tsunami waves crossed the Pacific Ocean causing significant damage as far away as Hawaii, California, and Chile, thereby becoming the largest, most destructive tsunami in the Pacific Basin since 1960. Triggers on the seismic stations at Erimo, Hokkaido (ERM) and Matsushiro, Honshu (MAJO), alerted Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) scientists 90 seconds after the earthquake began. Four minutes after its origin, and about one minute after the earthquake's rupture ended, PTWC issued an observatory message reporting a preliminary magnitude of 7.5. Eight minutes after origin time, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued its first international tsunami message in its capacity as the Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory Center. In accordance with international tsunami warning system protocols, PTWC then followed with its first international tsunami warning message using JMA's earthquake parameters, including an Mw of 7.8. Additional Mwp, mantle wave, and W-phase magnitude estimations based on the analysis of later-arriving seismic data at PTWC revealed that the earthquake magnitude reached at least 8.8, and that a destructive tsunami would likely be crossing the Pacific Ocean. The earthquake damaged the nearest coastal sea-level station located 90 km from the epicenter in Ofunato, Japan. The NOAA DART sensor situated 600 km off the coast of Sendai, Japan, at a depth of 5.6 km recorded a tsunami wave amplitude of nearly two meters, making it by far the largest tsunami wave ever recorded by a DART sensor. Thirty minutes later, a coastal sea-level station at Hanasaki, Japan, 600 km from the epicenter, recorded a tsunami wave amplitude of
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Löwe, P.; Hammitzsch, M.; Babeyko, A.; Wächter, J.
2012-04-01
The development of new Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) requires the modelling of spatio-temporal spreading of tsunami waves both recorded from past events and hypothetical future cases. The model results are maintained in digital repositories for use in TEWS command and control units for situation assessment once a real tsunami occurs. Thus the simulation results must be absolutely trustworthy, in a sense that the quality of these datasets is assured. This is a prerequisite as solid decision making during a crisis event and the dissemination of dependable warning messages to communities under risk will be based on them. This requires data format validity, but even more the integrity and information value of the content, being a derived value-added product derived from raw tsunami model output. Quality checking of simulation result products can be done in multiple ways, yet the visual verification of both temporal and spatial spreading characteristics for each simulation remains important. The eye of the human observer still remains an unmatched tool for the detection of irregularities. This requires the availability of convenient, human-accessible mappings of each simulation. The improvement of tsunami models necessitates the changes in many variables, including simulation end-parameters. Whenever new improved iterations of the general models or underlying spatial data are evaluated, hundreds to thousands of tsunami model results must be generated for each model iteration, each one having distinct initial parameter settings. The use of a Compute Cluster Environment (CCE) of sufficient size allows the automated generation of all tsunami-results within model iterations in little time. This is a significant improvement to linear processing on dedicated desktop machines or servers. This allows for accelerated/improved visual quality checking iterations, which in turn can provide a positive feedback into the overall model improvement iteratively. An approach to set
How soon is too soon? When to cancel a warning after a damaging tsunami
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fryer, G. J.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Weinstein, S.; Richards, K.
2012-12-01
Following an earthquake a tsunami warning center (TWC) must determine if a coastal evacuation is necessary and must do so fast enough for the warning to be useful to affected coastlines. Once a damaging tsunami has arrived, the TWC must decide when to cancel its warning, a task often more challenging than the initial hazard assessment. Here we demonstrate the difficulties by investigating the impact of the Tohoku tsunami of 11 March 2011 on the State of Hawaii, which relies on the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) for tsunami hazard guidance. PTWC issued a Tsunami Watch for Hawaii at 10 March 1956 HST (10 minutes after the earthquake) and upgraded to a Tsunami Warning at 2131 HST. The tsunami arrived in Hawaii just before 0300 HST the next day, reached a maximum runup of over 5 m, and did roughly $50 million in damage throughout the state. PTWC downgraded the Warning to an Advisory at 0730 HST, and canceled the Advisory at 1140 HST. The timing of the downgrade was appropriate—by then it was safe for coastal residents to re-enter the evacuation zone but not to enter the water—but in retrospect PTWC cancelled its Advisory too early. By late morning tide gauges throughout the state had all registered maximum wave heights of 30 cm or less for a couple of hours, so PTWC cancelled. The Center was unaware, however, of ocean behavior at locations without instruments. At Ma'alaea Harbor on the Island of Maui, for example, sea level oscillations exposed the harbor bottom every 20 minutes for several hours after the cancellation. At Waikiki on Oahu, lifeguards rescued 25 swimmers (who had either ignored or were unaware of the cancellation message's caution about hazardous currents) in the hours after the cancellation and performed CPR on one near-drowning victim. Fortunately, there were no deaths. Because of dangerous surges, ocean safety officials closed Hanauma Bay, a popular snorkeling spot on Oahu, for a full day after the tsunami hit. They reassessed the bay the
The One-Meter Criterion for Tsunami Warning: Time for a Reevaluation?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fryer, G. J.; Weinstein, S.
2013-12-01
The U.S. tsunami warning centers issue warnings when runup is anticipated to exceed one meter. The origins of the one-meter criterion are unclear, though Whitmore, et al (2008) showed from tsunami history that one meter is roughly the threshold above which damage occurs. Recent experiences in Hawaii, however, suggest that the threshold could be raised. Tsunami Warnings were issued for 2010 Chile, 2011 Tohoku, and 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunamis; each exceeded one meter runup somewhere in the State. Evacuation, however, was necessary only in 2011, and even then onshore damage (as opposed to damage from currents) occurred only where runup exceeded 1.5m. During both Chile and Haida Gwaii tsunamis the existing criteria led to unnecessary evacuation. Maximum runup during the Chile tsunami was 1.1m at Hilo's Wailoa Boat Harbor, while the Haida Gwaii tsunami peaked at 1.2m at Honouliwai Bay on Molokai. Both tsunamis caused only minor damage and minimal flooding; in both cases a Tsunami Advisory (i.e., there is no need to evacuate, but stay off the beach and out of the water) would have been adequate. The Advisory was originally developed as an ad hoc response to the mildly threatening 2006 Kuril tsunami and has since been formalized as the product we issue when maximum runup is expected to be 0.3-1.0 m. At the time it was introduced, however, there was no discussion that this new low-level warning might allow the criterion for Tsunami Warning itself to be adjusted. We now suggest that the divide between Advisory and Warning be raised from 1.0 to something greater, possibly 1.2m. If the warning threshold were raised to 1.2m, the over-warning for the Chile tsunami still could not have been avoided. Models calibrated against DART data consistently forecast runup just over 1.2m for that event. For Haida Gwaii, adjusting the models to match the DART data increased the forecast runup to almost 2m, which again meant a warning, though in retrospect we should have been skeptical. The
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gregg, C. E.; Johnston, D. M.; Ricthie, L.; Meinhold, S.; Johnson, V.; Scott, C.; Farnham, C.; Houghton, B. F.; Horan, J.; Gill, D.
2012-12-01
Improving the quality and effectiveness of tsunami warning messages and the TsunamiReady community preparedness program of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service's (NWS), Tsunami Program are two key objectives of a three year project (Award NA10NWS4670015) to help integrate social science into the NWS' Tsunami Program and improve the preparedness of member states and territories of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP). Research was conducted in collaboration with state and local emergency managers. Based on findings from focus group meetings with a purposive sample of local, state and Federal stakeholders and emergency managers in six states (AK, WA, OR, CA, HI and NC) and two US Territories (US Virgin Islands and American Samoa), and upon review of research literature on behavioral response to warnings, we developed a warning message metric to help guide revisions to tsunami warning messages issued by the NWS' West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center, Alaska and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, Hawaii. The metric incorporates factors that predict response to warning information, which are divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order and Formatting and Receiver Characteristics. A message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the meaning of metric factors and assigning a maximum score of one point per factor. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met. From focus groups that gathered information on the usefulness and achievability of tsunami preparedness actions, we developed recommendations for revisions to the proposed draft guidelines of the TsunamiReady Improvement Program. Proposed key revisions include the incorporation of community vulnerability to distant (far-field) versus local (near-field) tsunamis as a primary determinant of mandatory actions, rather than community population. Our team continues to work with
New Tsunami Forecast Tools for the French Polynesia Tsunami Warning System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Clément, Joël; Reymond, Dominique
2015-03-01
This paper presents the tsunami warning tools, which are used for the estimation of the seismic source parameters. These tools are grouped under a method called Preliminary Determination of Focal Mechanism_2 ( PDFM2), that has been developed at the French Polynesia Warning Center, in the framework of the system, as a plug-in concept. The first tool determines the seismic moment and the focal geometry (strike, dip, and slip), and the second tool identifies the "tsunami earthquakes" (earthquakes that cause much bigger tsunamis than their magnitude would imply). In a tsunami warning operation, initial assessment of the tsunami potential is based on location and magnitude. The usual quick magnitude methods which use waves, work fine for smaller earthquakes. For major earthquakes these methods drastically underestimate the magnitude and its tsunami potential because the radiated energy shifts to the longer period waves. Since French Polynesia is located far away from the subduction zones of the Pacific rim, the tsunami threat is not imminent, and this luxury of time allows to use the long period surface wave data to determine the true size of a major earthquake. The source inversion method presented in this paper uses a combination of surface waves amplitude spectra and P wave first motions. The advantage of using long period surface data is that there is a much more accurate determination of earthquake size, and the advantage of using P wave first motion is to have a better constrain of the focal geometry than using the surface waves alone. The method routinely gives stable results at minutes, with being the origin time of an earthquake. Our results are then compared to the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog for validating both the seismic moment and the source geometry. The second tool discussed in this paper is the slowness parameter and is the energy-to-moment ratio. It has been used to identify tsunami earthquakes, which are characterized by having unusual slow
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mattioli, Glen; Mencin, David; Hodgkinson, Kathleen; Meertens, Charles; Phillips, David; Blume, Fredrick; Berglund, Henry; Fox, Otina; Feaux, Karl
2016-04-01
The NSF-funded GAGE Facility, managed by UNAVCO, operates approximately ~1300 GNSS stations distributed across North and Central America and in the circum-Caribbean. Following community input starting in 2011 from several workshops and associated reports,UNAVCO has been exploring ways to increase the capability and utility of the geodetic resources under its management to improve our understanding in diverse areas of geophysics including properties of seismic, volcanic, magmatic and tsunami deformation sources. Networks operated by UNAVCO for the NSF have the potential to profoundly transform our ability to rapidly characterize events, provide rapid characterization and warning, as well as improve hazard mitigation and response. Specific applications currently under development include earthquake early warning, tsunami early warning, and tropospheric modeling with university, commercial, non-profit and government partners on national and international scales. In the case of tsunami early warning, for example, an RT-GNSS network can provide multiple inputs in an operational system starting with rapid assessment of earthquake sources and associated deformation, which leads to the initial model of ocean forcing and tsunami generation. In addition, terrestrial GNSScan provide direct measurements of the tsunami through the associated traveling ionospheric disturbance from several 100's of km away as they approach the shoreline,which can be used to refine tsunami inundation models. Any operational system like this has multiple communities that rely on a pan-Pacific real-time open data set. Other scientific and operational applications for high-rate GPS include glacier and ice sheet motions, tropospheric modeling, and better constraints on the dynamics of space weather. Combining existing data sets and user communities, for example seismic data and tide gauge observations, with GNSS and Met data products has proven complicated because of issues related to metadata
NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center Pacific Ocean response criteria
Whitmore, P.; Benz, H.; Bolton, M.; Crawford, G.; Dengler, L.; Fryer, G.; Goltz, J.; Hansen, R.; Kryzanowski, K.; Malone, S.; Oppenheimer, D.; Petty, E.; Rogers, G.; Wilson, Jim
2008-01-01
New West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakes occurring in the Pacific basin are presented. Initial warning decisions are based on earthquake location, magnitude, depth, and - dependent on magnitude - either distance from source or precomputed threat estimates generated from tsunami models. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Changes to the previous criteria include: adding hypocentral depth dependence, reducing geographical warning extent for the lower magnitude ranges, setting special criteria for areas not well-connected to the open ocean, basing warning extent on pre-computed threat levels versus tsunami travel time for very large events, including the new advisory product, using the advisory product for far-offshore events in the lower magnitude ranges, and specifying distances from the coast for on-shore events which may be tsunamigenic. This report sets a baseline for response criteria used by the WCATWC considering its processing and observational data capabilities as well as its organizational requirements. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of slumps). As further research and development provides better tsunami source definition, observational data streams, and improved analysis tools, the criteria will continue to adjust. Future lines of research and development capable of providing operational tsunami warning centers with better tools are discussed.
The potential role of real-time geodetic observations in tsunami early warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto
2016-04-01
Tsunami warning systems (TWS) have the final goal to launch a reliable alert of an incoming dangerous tsunami to coastal population early enough to allow people to flee from the shore and coastal areas according to some evacuation plans. In the last decade, especially after the catastrophic 2004 Boxing Day tsunami in the Indian Ocean, much attention has been given to filling gaps in the existing TWSs (only covering the Pacific Ocean at that time) and to establishing new TWSs in ocean regions that were uncovered. Typically, TWSs operating today work only on earthquake-induced tsunamis. TWSs estimate quickly earthquake location and size by real-time processing seismic signals; on the basis of some pre-defined "static" procedures (either based on decision matrices or on pre-archived tsunami simulations), assess the tsunami alert level on a large regional scale and issue specific bulletins to a pre-selected recipients audience. Not unfrequently these procedures result in generic alert messages with little value. What usually operative TWSs do not do, is to compute earthquake focal mechanism, to calculate the co-seismic sea-floor displacement, to assess the initial tsunami conditions, to input these data into tsunami simulation models and to compute tsunami propagation up to the threatened coastal districts. This series of steps is considered nowadays too time consuming to provide the required timely alert. An equivalent series of steps could start from the same premises (earthquake focal parameters) and reach the same result (tsunami height at target coastal areas) by replacing the intermediate steps of real-time tsunami simulations with proper selection from a large archive of pre-computed tsunami scenarios. The advantage of real-time simulations and of archived scenarios selection is that estimates are tailored to the specific occurring tsunami and alert can be more detailed (less generic) and appropriate for local needs. Both these procedures are still at an
Availability and Reliability of Disaster Early Warning Systems and the IT Infrastructure Library
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.
2012-12-01
The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 caused an information catastrophy. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages. A key challenge stems from the main objective of the IOC Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from sensors to Warning Centers, has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. This task is complicated by the fact that in term of ICT system life cycles tsunami are very rare event resulting in very difficult framing conditions to safeguard the availability and reliability of TWS. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sabeur, Z. A.; Wächter, J.; Middleton, S. E.; Zlatev, Z.; Häner, R.; Hammitzsch, M.; Loewe, P.
2012-04-01
The intelligent management of large volumes of environmental monitoring data for early tsunami warning requires the deployment of robust and scalable service oriented infrastructure that is supported by an agile knowledge-base for critical decision-support In the TRIDEC project (TRIDEC 2010-2013), a sensor observation service bus of the TRIDEC system is being developed for the advancement of complex tsunami event processing and management. Further, a dedicated TRIDEC system knowledge-base is being implemented to enable on-demand access to semantically rich OGC SWE compliant hydrodynamic observations and operationally oriented meta-information to multiple subscribers. TRIDEC decision support requires a scalable and agile real-time processing architecture which enables fast response to evolving subscribers requirements as the tsunami crisis develops. This is also achieved with the support of intelligent processing services which specialise in multi-level fusion methods with relevance feedback and deep learning. The TRIDEC knowledge base development work coupled with that of the generic sensor bus platform shall be presented to demonstrate advanced decision-support with situation awareness in context of tsunami early warning and crisis management.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Beranzoli, Laura; Best, Mairi; Chierici, Francesco; Embriaco, Davide; Galbraith, Nan; Heeseman, Martin; Kelley, Deborah; Pirenne, Benoit; Scofield, Oscar; Weller, Robert
2015-04-01
There is a need for tsunami modeling and early warning systems for near-source areas. For example this is a common public safety threat in the Mediterranean and Juan de Fuca/NE Pacific Coast of N.A.; Regions covered by the EMSO, OOI, and ONC ocean observatories. Through the CoopEUS international cooperation project, a number of environmental research infrastructures have come together to coordinate efforts on environmental challenges; this tsunami case study tackles one such challenge. There is a mutual need of tsunami event field data and modeling to deepen our experience in testing methodology and developing real-time data processing. Tsunami field data are already available for past events, part of this use case compares these for compatibility, gap analysis, and model groundtruthing. It also reviews sensors needed and harmonizes instrument settings. Sensor metadata and registries are compared, harmonized, and aligned. Data policies and access are also compared and assessed for gap analysis. Modelling algorithms are compared and tested against archived and real-time data. This case study will then be extended to other related tsunami data and model sources globally with similar geographic and seismic scenarios.
Tsunamis warning from space :Ionosphere seismology
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Larmat, Carene
2012-09-04
Ionosphere is the layer of the atmosphere from about 85 to 600km containing electrons and electrically charged atoms that are produced by solar radiation. Perturbations - layering affected by day and night, X-rays and high-energy protons from the solar flares, geomagnetic storms, lightning, drivers-from-below. Strategic for radio-wave transmission. This project discusses the inversion of ionosphere signals, tsunami wave amplitude and coupling parameters, which improves tsunami warning systems.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sterling, K.; Denbo, D. W.; Eble, M. C.
2016-12-01
Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT) software was developed by NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) for use in tsunami forecasting and has been used by both U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) since 2012, when SIFTv3.1 was operationally accepted. Since then, advancements in research and modeling have resulted in several new features being incorporated into SIFT forecasting. Following the priorities and needs of the TWCs, upgrades to SIFT forecasting were implemented into SIFTv4.0, scheduled to become operational in October 2016. Because every minute counts in the early warning process, two major time saving features were implemented in SIFT 4.0. To increase processing speeds and generate high-resolution flooding forecasts more quickly, the tsunami propagation and inundation codes were modified to run on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). To reduce time demand on duty scientists during an event, an automated DART inversion (or fitting) process was implemented. To increase forecasting accuracy, the forecasted amplitudes and inundations were adjusted to include dynamic tidal oscillations, thereby reducing the over-estimates of flooding common in SIFTv3.1 due to the static tide stage conservatively set at Mean High Water. Further improvements to forecasts were gained through the assimilation of additional real-time observations. Cabled array measurements from Bottom Pressure Recorders (BPRs) in the Oceans Canada NEPTUNE network are now available to SIFT for use in the inversion process. To better meet the needs of harbor masters and emergency managers, SIFTv4.0 adds a tsunami currents graphical product to the suite of disseminated forecast results. When delivered, these new features in SIFTv4.0 will improve the operational tsunami forecasting speed, accuracy, and capabilities at NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haase, J. S.; Bock, Y.; Saunders, J. K.; Goldberg, D.; Restrepo, J. I.
2016-12-01
As part of an effort to promote the use of NASA-sponsored Earth science information for disaster risk reduction, real-time high-rate seismogeodetic data are being incorporated into early warning and structural monitoring systems. Seismogeodesy combines seismic acceleration and GPS displacement measurements using a tightly-coupled Kalman filter to provide absolute estimates of seismic acceleration, velocity and displacement. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. Real-time seismogeodetic observations at subduction zones allow for more robust and rapid magnitude and slip estimation that increase warning time in the near-source region. A NASA-funded effort to utilize GPS and seismogeodesy in NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii integrates new modules for picking, locating, and estimating magnitudes and moment tensors for earthquakes into the USGS earthworm environment at the TWCs. In a related project, NASA supports the transition of this research to seismogeodetic tools for disaster preparedness, specifically by implementing GPS and low-cost MEMS accelerometers for structural monitoring in partnership with earthquake engineers. Real-time high-rate seismogeodetic structural monitoring has been implemented on two structures. The first is a parking garage at the Autonomous University of Baja California Faculty of Medicine in Mexicali, not far from the rupture of the 2011 Mw 7.2 El Mayor Cucapah earthquake enabled through a UCMexus collaboration. The second is the 8-story Geisel Library at University of California, San Diego (UCSD). The system has also been installed for several proof-of-concept experiments at the UCSD Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) Large High Performance Outdoor Shake Table. We present MEMS-based seismogeodetic observations from the 10 June
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Necmioglu, Ocal; Ishibe, Takeo; Yalciner, Ahmet C.
2017-12-01
Various Tsunami Service Providers (TSPs) within the Mediterranean Basin supply tsunami warnings including CAT-INGV (Italy), KOERI-RETMC (Turkey), and NOA/HL-NTWC (Greece). The 20 July 2017 Bodrum-Kos (Turkey-Greece) earthquake (Mw 6.6) and tsunami provided an opportunity to assess the response from these TSPs. Although the Bodrum-Kos tsunami was moderate (e.g., runup of 1.9 m) with little damage to properties, it was the first noticeable tsunami in the Mediterranean Basin since the 21 May 2003 western Mediterranean tsunami. Tsunami waveform analysis revealed that the trough-to-crest height was 34.1 cm at the near-field tide gauge station of Bodrum (Turkey). Tsunami period band was 2-30 min with peak periods at 7-13 min. We proposed a source fault model for this tsunami with the length and width of 25 and 15 km and uniform slip of 0.4 m. Tsunami simulations using both nodal planes produced almost same results in terms of agreement between tsunami observations and simulations. Different TSPs provided tsunami warnings at 10 min (CAT-INGV), 19 min (KOERI-RETMC), and 18 min (NOA/HL-NTWC) after the earthquake origin time. Apart from CAT-INGV, whose initial Mw estimation differed 0.2 units with respect to the final value, the response from the other two TSPs came relatively late compared to the desired warning time of 10 min, given the difficulties for timely and accurate calculation of earthquake magnitude and tsunami impact assessment. It is argued that even if a warning time of 10 min was achieved, it might not have been sufficient for addressing near-field tsunami hazards. Despite considerable progress and achievements made within the upstream components of NEAMTWS (North East Atlantic, Mediterranean and Connected seas Tsunami Warning System), the experience from this moderate tsunami may highlight the need for improving operational capabilities of TSPs, but more importantly for effectively integrating civil protection authorities into NEAMTWS and strengthening
Early waning and evacuation from Tsunami, volcano, flood and other hazards
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sugimoto, M.
2012-12-01
In reconsideration of the great sacrifice among the people, evacuation calls for evacuation through Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), local governments and Medias have been drastically changed after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami in Japan. One of example is that JMA changed from forecasted concrete figure of tsunami height to one of 3 levels of tsunami height. A data shows the border between life and death is just 2 minutes of earlier evacuation in case of the 2011 tsunami. It shows how importance for communities to prompt early evacuation for survivals. However, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami revealed there is no reliable trigger to prompt early evacuation to people in case of blackout under disasters, excluding effective education. The warning call was still complicated situations in Japan in July 2012. The 2012 Northern Kyusyu downpours was at worst around 110 millimeters an hour and casualties 30 in Japan. JMA learned from the last tsunami. In this time JMA informed to local governments as a waning call "Unexpected severe rains" to local governments. However, local governments did not notice the call from JMA in the same as usual informed way. One of the local government said "We were very busy for preparing for staffs. We looked at the necessary information of the water levels of rivers and flood prevention under emergent situation" (NHK 2012). This case shows JMA's evacuation calls from upstream to midstream of local government and downstream of communities started, however upstream calls have not engaged with midstream and communities yet. Calls of early warning from upstream is still a self-centered idea for both midstream and downstream. Finally JMA could not convey a crisis mentality to local government. The head of Oarai town independently decided to use the different warning call "Order townspersons to evacuate immediately" in Ibaraki prefecture, Japan from the other municipalities in 2011 though there was not such a manuals calls in Japan. This risk communication
Improving tsunami warning systems with remote sensing and geographical information system input.
Wang, Jin-Feng; Li, Lian-Fa
2008-12-01
An optimal and integrative tsunami warning system is introduced that takes full advantage of remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS) in monitoring, forecasting, detection, loss evaluation, and relief management for tsunamis. Using the primary impact zone in Banda Aceh, Indonesia as the pilot area, we conducted three simulations that showed that while the December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami claimed about 300,000 lives because there was no tsunami warning system at all, it is possible that only about 15,000 lives could have been lost if the area had used a tsunami warning system like that currently in use in the Pacific Ocean. The simulations further calculated that the death toll could have been about 3,000 deaths if there had been a disaster system further optimized with full use of remote sensing and GIS, although the number of badly damaged or destroyed houses (29,545) could have likely remained unchanged.
Optimization of the Number and Location of Tsunami Stations in a Tsunami Warning System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
An, C.; Liu, P. L. F.; Pritchard, M. E.
2014-12-01
Optimizing the number and location of tsunami stations in designing a tsunami warning system is an important and practical problem. It is always desirable to maximize the capability of the data obtained from the stations for constraining the earthquake source parameters, and to minimize the number of stations at the same time. During the 2011 Tohoku tsunami event, 28 coastal gauges and DART buoys in the near-field recorded tsunami waves, providing an opportunity for assessing the effectiveness of those stations in identifying the earthquake source parameters. Assuming a single-plane fault geometry, inversions of tsunami data from combinations of various number (1~28) of stations and locations are conducted and evaluated their effectiveness according to the residues of the inverse method. Results show that the optimized locations of stations depend on the number of stations used. If the stations are optimally located, 2~4 stations are sufficient to constrain the source parameters. Regarding the optimized location, stations must be uniformly spread in all directions, which is not surprising. It is also found that stations within the source region generally give worse constraint of earthquake source than stations farther from source, which is due to the exaggeration of model error in matching large amplitude waves at near-source stations. Quantitative discussions on these findings will be given in the presentation. Applying similar analysis to the Manila Trench based on artificial scenarios of earthquakes and tsunamis, the optimal location of tsunami stations are obtained, which provides guidance of deploying a tsunami warning system in this region.
An Experimental Seismic Data and Parameter Exchange System for Tsunami Warning Systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hoffmann, T. L.; Hanka, W.; Saul, J.; Weber, B.; Becker, J.; Heinloo, A.; Hoffmann, M.
2009-12-01
For several years GFZ Potsdam is operating a global earthquake monitoring system. Since the beginning of 2008, this system is also used as an experimental seismic background data center for two different regional Tsunami Warning Systems (TWS), the IOTWS (Indian Ocean) and the interim NEAMTWS (NE Atlantic and Mediterranean). The SeisComP3 (SC3) software, developed within the GITEWS (German Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System) project, capable to acquire, archive and process real-time data feeds, was extended for export and import of individual processing results within the two clusters of connected SC3 systems. Therefore not only real-time waveform data are routed to the attached warning centers through GFZ but also processing results. While the current experimental NEAMTWS cluster consists of SC3 systems in six designated national warning centers in Europe, the IOTWS cluster presently includes seven centers, with another three likely to join in 2009/10. For NEAMTWS purposes, the GFZ virtual real-time seismic network (GEOFON Extended Virtual Network -GEVN) in Europe was substantially extended by adding many stations from Western European countries optimizing the station distribution. In parallel to the data collection over the Internet, a GFZ VSAT hub for secured data collection of the EuroMED GEOFON and NEAMTWS backbone network stations became operational and first data links were established through this backbone. For the Southeast Asia region, a VSAT hub has been established in Jakarta already in 2006, with some other partner networks connecting to this backbone via the Internet. Since its establishment, the experimental system has had the opportunity to prove its performance in a number of relevant earthquakes. Reliable solutions derived from a minimum of 25 stations were very promising in terms of speed. For important events, automatic alerts were released and disseminated by emails and SMS. Manually verified solutions are added as soon as they become
Implications Of The 11 March Tohoku Tsunami On Warning Systems And Vertical Evacuation Strategies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fraser, S.; Leonard, G.; Johnston, D.
2011-12-01
The Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 11th 2011 claimed over 20,000 lives in an event which inundated over 500 km2 of land on the north-east coast of Japan. Successful execution of tsunami warning procedures and evacuation strategies undoubtedly saved thousands of lives, and there is evidence that vertical evacuation facilities were a key part of reducing the fatality rate in several municipalities in the Sendai Plains. As with all major disasters, however, post-event observations show that there are lessons to be learned in minimising life loss in future events. This event has raised or reinforced several key points that should be considered for implementation in all areas at risk from tsunami around the world. Primary areas for discussion are the need for redundant power supplies in tsunami warning systems; considerations of natural warnings when official warnings may not come; adequate understanding and estimation of the tsunami hazard; thorough site assessments for critical infrastructure, including emergency management facilities and tsunami refuges; and adequate signage of evacuation routes and refuges. This paper will present observations made on two field visits to the Tohoku region during 2011, drawing conclusions from field observations and discussions with local emergency officials. These observations will inform the enhancement of current tsunami evacuation strategies in New Zealand; it is believed discussion of these observations can also benefit continuing development of warning and evacuation strategies existing in the United States and elsewhere.
An automatic tsunami warning system: TREMORS application in Europe
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reymond, D.; Robert, S.; Thomas, Y.; Schindelé, F.
1996-03-01
An integrated system named TREMORS (Tsunami Risk Evaluation through seismic Moment of a Real-time System) has been installed in EVORA station, in Portugal which has been affected by historical tsunamis. The system is based on a three component long period seismic station linked to a compatible IBM_PC with a specific software. The goals of this system are the followings: detect earthquake, locate them, compute their seismic moment, give a seismic warning. The warnings are based on the seismic moment estimation and all the processing are made automatically. The finality of this study is to check the quality of estimation of the main parameters of interest in a goal of tsunami warning: the location which depends of azimuth and distance, and at last the seismic moment, M 0, which controls the earthquake size. The sine qua non condition for obtaining an automatic location is that the 3 main seismic phases P, S, R must be visible. This study gives satisfying results (automatic analysis): ± 5° errors in azimuth and epicentral distance, and a standard deviation of less than a factor 2 for the seismic moment M 0.
User interface prototype for geospatial early warning systems - a tsunami showcase
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.; Esbrí, M. Á.
2012-03-01
The command and control unit's graphical user interface (GUI) is a central part of early warning systems (EWS) for man-made and natural hazards. The GUI combines and concentrates the relevant information of the system and offers it to human operators. It has to support operators successfully performing their tasks in complex workflows. Most notably in critical situations when operators make important decisions in a limited amount of time, the command and control unit's GUI has to work reliably and stably, providing the relevant information and functionality with the required quality and in time. The design of the GUI application is essential in the development of any EWS to manage hazards effectively. The design and development of such GUI is performed repeatedly for each EWS by various software architects and developers. Implementations differ based on their application in different domains. But similarities designing and equal approaches implementing GUIs of EWS are not quite harmonized enough with related activities and do not exploit possible synergy effects. Thus, the GUI's implementation of an EWS for tsunamis is successively introduced, providing a generic approach to be applied in each EWS for man-made and natural hazards.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.
2009-04-01
Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Occhipinti, G.; Manta, F.; Rolland, L.; Watada, S.; Makela, J. J.; Hill, E.; Astafieva, E.; Lognonne, P. H.
2017-12-01
.8 Benyak event (2010). In this talk we present all this new tsunami observations in the ionosphere and we discuss, under the light of modelling, the potential role of ionospheric sounding by GNSS-TEC and airglow cameras in oceanic monitoring and future tsunami warning system. All ref. here @ www.ipgp.fr/ ninto
Rapid estimate of earthquake source duration: application to tsunami warning.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reymond, Dominique; Jamelot, Anthony; Hyvernaud, Olivier
2016-04-01
We present a method for estimating the source duration of the fault rupture, based on the high-frequency envelop of teleseismic P-Waves, inspired from the original work of (Ni et al., 2005). The main interest of the knowledge of this seismic parameter is to detect abnormal low velocity ruptures that are the characteristic of the so called 'tsunami-earthquake' (Kanamori, 1972). The validation of the results of source duration estimated by this method are compared with two other independent methods : the estimated duration obtained by the Wphase inversion (Kanamori and Rivera, 2008, Duputel et al., 2012) and the duration calculated by the SCARDEC process that determines the source time function (M. Vallée et al., 2011). The estimated source duration is also confronted to the slowness discriminant defined by Newman and Okal, 1998), that is calculated routinely for all earthquakes detected by our tsunami warning process (named PDFM2, Preliminary Determination of Focal Mechanism, (Clément and Reymond, 2014)). Concerning the point of view of operational tsunami warning, the numerical simulations of tsunami are deeply dependent on the source estimation: better is the source estimation, better will be the tsunami forecast. The source duration is not directly injected in the numerical simulations of tsunami, because the cinematic of the source is presently totally ignored (Jamelot and Reymond, 2015). But in the case of a tsunami-earthquake that occurs in the shallower part of the subduction zone, we have to consider a source in a medium of low rigidity modulus; consequently, for a given seismic moment, the source dimensions will be decreased while the slip distribution increased, like a 'compact' source (Okal, Hébert, 2007). Inversely, a rapid 'snappy' earthquake that has a poor tsunami excitation power, will be characterized by higher rigidity modulus, and will produce weaker displacement and lesser source dimensions than 'normal' earthquake. References: CLément, J
A SDMS Model: Early Warning Coordination Centres
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Santos-Reyes, Jaime
2010-05-01
Following the tsunami disaster in 2004, the General Secretary of the United Nations (UN) Kofi Annan called for a global early warning system for all hazards and for all communities. He also requested the ISDR (International Strategy fort Disaster Reduction) and its UN partners to conduct a global survey of capacities, gaps and opportunities in relation to early warning systems. The produced report, "Global survey of Early Warning Systems", concluded that there are many gaps and shortcomings and that much progress has been made on early warning systems and great capabilities are available around the world. However, it may be argued that an early warning system (EWS) may not be enough to prevent fatalities due to a natural hazard; i.e., it should be seen as part of a ‘wider' or total system. Furthermore, an EWS may work very well when assessed individually but it is not clear whether it will contribute to accomplish the purpose of the ‘total disaster management system'; i.e., to prevent fatalities. For instance, a regional EWS may only work if it is well co-ordinated with the local warning and emergency response systems that ensure that the warning is received, communicated and acted upon by the potentially affected communities. It may be argued that without these local measures being in place, a regional EWS will have little impact in saving lives. Researchers argued that unless people are warned in remote areas, the technology is useless; for instance McGuire [5] argues that: "I have no doubt that the technical element of the warning system will work very well,"…"But there has to be an effective and efficient communications cascade from the warning centre to the fisherman on the beach and his family and the bar owners." Similarly, McFadden [6] states that: "There's no point in spending all the money on a fancy monitoring and a fancy analysis system unless we can make sure the infrastructure for the broadcast system is there,"… "That's going to require a lot
Miller, Kevin M.; Long, Kate
2013-01-01
This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought
Open Source Seismic Software in NOAA's Next Generation Tsunami Warning System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hellman, S. B.; Baker, B. I.; Hagerty, M. T.; Leifer, J. M.; Lisowski, S.; Thies, D. A.; Donnelly, B. K.; Griffith, F. P.
2014-12-01
The Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a project spearheaded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to update the United States' Tsunami Warning System software currently employed at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (Eva Beach, Hawaii) and the National Tsunami Warning Center (Palmer, Alaska). This entirely open source software project will integrate various seismic processing utilities with the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's core software, AWIPS2. For the real-time and near real-time seismic processing aspect of this project, NOAA has elected to integrate the open source portions of GFZ's SeisComP 3 (SC3) processing system into AWIPS2. To provide for better tsunami threat assessments we are developing open source tools for magnitude estimations (e.g., moment magnitude, energy magnitude, surface wave magnitude), detection of slow earthquakes with the Theta discriminant, moment tensor inversions (e.g. W-phase and teleseismic body waves), finite fault inversions, and array processing. With our reliance on common data formats such as QuakeML and seismic community standard messaging systems, all new facilities introduced into AWIPS2 and SC3 will be available as stand-alone tools or could be easily integrated into other real time seismic monitoring systems such as Earthworm, Antelope, etc. Additionally, we have developed a template based design paradigm so that the developer or scientist can efficiently create upgrades, replacements, and/or new metrics to the seismic data processing with only a cursory knowledge of the underlying SC3.
A Distributed Architecture for Tsunami Early Warning and Collaborative Decision-support in Crises
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moßgraber, J.; Middleton, S.; Hammitzsch, M.; Poslad, S.
2012-04-01
The presentation will describe work on the system architecture that is being developed in the EU FP7 project TRIDEC on "Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises". The challenges for a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) are manifold and the success of a system depends crucially on the system's architecture. A modern warning system following a system-of-systems approach has to integrate various components and sub-systems such as different information sources, services and simulation systems. Furthermore, it has to take into account the distributed and collaborative nature of warning systems. In order to create an architecture that supports the whole spectrum of a modern, distributed and collaborative warning system one must deal with multiple challenges. Obviously, one cannot expect to tackle these challenges adequately with a monolithic system or with a single technology. Therefore, a system architecture providing the blueprints to implement the system-of-systems approach has to combine multiple technologies and architectural styles. At the bottom layer it has to reliably integrate a large set of conventional sensors, such as seismic sensors and sensor networks, buoys and tide gauges, and also innovative and unconventional sensors, such as streams of messages from social media services. At the top layer it has to support collaboration on high-level decision processes and facilitates information sharing between organizations. In between, the system has to process all data and integrate information on a semantic level in a timely manner. This complex communication follows an event-driven mechanism allowing events to be published, detected and consumed by various applications within the architecture. Therefore, at the upper layer the event-driven architecture (EDA) aspects are combined with principles of service-oriented architectures (SOA) using standards for communication and data exchange. The most prominent challenges on this layer
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano
2014-05-01
The general idea that pre-computed simulated scenario databases can play a key role in conceiving tsunami early warning systems is commonly accepted by now. But it was only in the last decade that it started to be applied to the Mediterranean region, taking special impulse from initiatives like the GDACS and from recently concluded EU-funded projects such as TRIDEC and NearToWarn. With reference to these two projects and with the possibility of further developing this research line in the frame of the FP7 ASTARTE project, we discuss some results we obtained regarding two major topics, namely the strategies applicable to the tsunami scenario database building and the design and performance assessment of a timely and "reliable" elementary-scenario combination algorithm to be run in real-time. As for the first theme, we take advantage of the experience gained in the test areas of Western Iberia, Rhodes (Greece) and Cyprus to illustrate the criteria with which a "Matching Scenario Database" (MSDB) can be built. These involve 1) the choice of the main tectonic tsunamigenic sources (or areas), 2) their tessellation with matrices of elementary faults whose dimension heavily depend on the particular studied area and must be a compromise between the needs to represent the tsunamigenic area in sufficient detail and of limiting the number of scenarios to be simulated, 3) the computation of the scenarios themselves, 4) the choice of the relevant simulation outputs and the standardisation of their formats. Regarding the matching/forecast algorithm, we want it to select and combine the MSDB elements based on the initial earthquake magnitude and location estimate, and to produce a forecast of (at least) the tsunami arrival time, amplitude and period at the closest tide-level sensors and in all needed forecast points. We discuss the performance of the algorithm in terms of the time needed to produce the forecast after the earthquake is detected. In particular, we analyse the
1854-2014: 160 years of far-field tsunami detection and warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Okal, Emile
2014-05-01
The first scientific study of a tsunami as generated by a distant earthquake can be traced to Bache [1856] who correctly identified waves from the 1854 Nankai earthquake on California tidal gauges. We will review developments in the study of the relationship between earthquake source and far field tsunami, with their logical application to distant warning. Among the principal milestones, we discuss Hochstetter's [1869] work on the 1868 Arica tsunami, Jaggar's real-time, but ignored, warning of the 1923 Kamchatka tsunami in Hawaii, his much greater success with the 1933 Showa Sanriku event, the catastrophic 1946 Aleutian event, which led to the implementation of PTWC, the 1960 events in Hilo, and the 1964 Alaska tsunami, which led to the development of the A[now N]TWC. From the scientific standpoint, we will review the evolution of our attempts to measure the seismic source (in practice its seismic moment), always faster, and at always lower frequencies, culminating in the W-phase inversion, heralded by Kanamori and co-workers in the wake of the Sumatra disaster. Specific problems arise from events violating scaling laws, such as the so-called "tsunami earthquakes", and we will review methodologies to recognize them in real time, such as energy-to-moment ratios. Finally, we will discuss briefly modern technologies aimed at directly detecting the tsunami independently of the seismic source.
Sea Level Station Metadata for Tsunami Detection, Warning and Research
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stroker, K. J.; Marra, J.; Kari, U. S.; Weinstein, S. A.; Kong, L.
2007-12-01
The devastating earthquake and tsunami of December 26, 2004 has greatly increased recognition of the need for water level data both from the coasts and the deep-ocean. In 2006, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) completed a Tsunami Data Management Report describing the management of data required to minimize the impact of tsunamis in the United States. One of the major gaps defined in this report is the access to global coastal water level data. NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) are working cooperatively to bridge this gap. NOAA relies on a network of global data, acquired and processed in real-time to support tsunami detection and warning, as well as high-quality global databases of archived data to support research and advanced scientific modeling. In 2005, parties interested in enhancing the access and use of sea level station data united under the NOAA NCDC's Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center's Pacific Region Integrated Data Enterprise (PRIDE) program to develop a distributed metadata system describing sea level stations (Kari et. al., 2006; Marra et.al., in press). This effort started with pilot activities in a regional framework and is targeted at tsunami detection and warning systems being developed by various agencies. It includes development of the components of a prototype sea level station metadata web service and accompanying Google Earth-based client application, which use an XML-based schema to expose, at a minimum, information in the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) station database needed to use the PTWC's Tide Tool application. As identified in the Tsunami Data Management Report, the need also exists for long-term retention of the sea level station data. NOAA envisions that the retrospective water level data and metadata will also be available through web services, using an XML-based schema. Five high
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Matsumoto, T.
2010-12-01
The economy (including tourism) in tropical and subtropical coastal areas, such as Okinawa Prefecture (Ryukyu) is highly relying on the sea. The sea has both “gentle” side to give people healing and “fierce” side to kill people. If we are going to utilise the sea for marine tourism such as constructing resort facilities on the oceanfront, we should know the whole nature of the sea, Tsunami is the typical case of the “fierce” side of the sea. We have already learned a lesson about this issue from the Sumatra tsunami in 2004. Early morning (5:31 am Japanese Standard Time = JST) on 27 February 2010, a M6.9 earthquake occurred near the coast of Okinawa Ryukyu Island Japan, and just after that Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued a tsunami warning along the coastal area of Okinawa Prefecture. About one hour later the tsunami warning was cancelled. The CMT solution of this earthquake was found to be strike-slip type with NE-SW P-axis. Therefore this did not induce a tsunami. However, in the afternoon on the same day (JST) a M8.6 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile and soon after that a tsunami warning issued along the Pacific coastal area including Japan and Ryukyu Islands. Indeed maximum 1m tsunami hit the eastern coast of Okinawa Island on 28th February (Nakamura, 2010, personal communication). The author conducted a survey about the actions against the both tsunami after the 27 February tsunami warming to the major resort hotels along the coast of the Ryukyu Islands. A questionnaire was sent to about 20 hotels and 6 hotels replied to the questionnaire. Most of these hotels reported the regular training against tsunami attack, preparation of a disaster prevention manual, close communication with the local fire station authority, evacuation procedure towards high stories of the hotel building etc. It was “winter season” when the tsunami took place. However, if that were “summer season,” the other problem such as how they make the people
Crowdsourced earthquake early warning.
Minson, Sarah E; Brooks, Benjamin A; Glennie, Craig L; Murray, Jessica R; Langbein, John O; Owen, Susan E; Heaton, Thomas H; Iannucci, Robert A; Hauser, Darren L
2015-04-01
Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an M w (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California's Hayward fault, and real data from the M w 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.
Crowdsourced earthquake early warning
Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.
2015-01-01
Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing. PMID:26601167
Crowdsourced earthquake early warning
Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.
2015-01-01
Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.
2012-04-01
The central Mediterranean, and in particular the coasts of southern Italy, is one of the areas with the highest tsunami hazard in Europe. Limiting our attention to earthquake-generated tsunamis, the sources of historical events hitting this region, as well as the largest part of the potential tsunamigenic seismic sources mapped there, are found at very short distances from the closest shorelines, reducing the time needed for the tsunami to attack the coasts themselves to few minutes. This represents by itself an issue from the Tsunami Early Warning (TEW) perspective. To make the overall problem even more intriguing and challenging, it is known that large tsunamigenic earthquakes are generally characterized by highly heterogeneous distributions of the slip on the fault. This feature has been recognized clearly, for instance, in the giant Sumatra 2004, Chile 2010, and Japan 2011 earthquakes (magnitude 9.3, 8.8 and 9.0, respectively), but it was a property also of smaller magnitude events occurred in the region considered in this study, like the 28 December 1908 Messina Straits tsunamigenic earthquake (M=7.2). In terms of tsunami impact, the parent fault slip heterogeneity usually determines a high variability of run-up and inundation on the near-field coasts, which further complicates the TEW problem. The information on the details of the seismic source rupture coming from the seismic (and possibly geodetic) networks, though of primary importance, is typically available after a time that is comparable or larger than the time comprised between the generation and the impact of the tsunami. In the framework of the EU-FP7 TRIDEC Project, we investigate how a proper marine sensors coverage both along the coasts and offshore can help posing constraints on the characteristics of the source in near-real time. Our approach consists in discussing numerical tsunami scenarios in the central Mediterranean involving different slip distributions on the parent fault; the
TIDE TOOL: Open-Source Sea-Level Monitoring Software for Tsunami Warning Systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weinstein, S. A.; Kong, L. S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.
2012-12-01
A tsunami warning center (TWC) typically decides to issue a tsunami warning bulletin when initial estimates of earthquake source parameters suggest it may be capable of generating a tsunami. A TWC, however, relies on sea-level data to provide prima facie evidence for the existence or non-existence of destructive tsunami waves and to constrain tsunami wave height forecast models. In the aftermath of the 2004 Sumatra disaster, the International Tsunami Information Center asked the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) to develop a platform-independent, easy-to-use software package to give nascent TWCs the ability to process WMO Global Telecommunications System (GTS) sea-level messages and to analyze the resulting sea-level curves (marigrams). In response PTWC developed TIDE TOOL that has since steadily grown in sophistication to become PTWC's operational sea-level processing system. TIDE TOOL has two main parts: a decoder that reads GTS sea-level message logs, and a graphical user interface (GUI) written in the open-source platform-independent graphical toolkit scripting language Tcl/Tk. This GUI consists of dynamic map-based clients that allow the user to select and analyze a single station or groups of stations by displaying their marigams in strip-chart or screen-tiled forms. TIDE TOOL also includes detail maps of each station to show each station's geographical context and reverse tsunami travel time contours to each station. TIDE TOOL can also be coupled to the GEOWARE™ TTT program to plot tsunami travel times and to indicate the expected tsunami arrival time on the marigrams. Because sea-level messages are structured in a rich variety of formats TIDE TOOL includes a metadata file, COMP_META, that contains all of the information needed by TIDE TOOL to decode sea-level data as well as basic information such as the geographical coordinates of each station. TIDE TOOL can therefore continuously decode theses sea-level messages in real-time and display the time
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pagnoni, Gianluca; Armigliato, Alberto; Tinti, Stefano
2013-04-01
We take into account some examples of offshore earthquakes occurred worldwide in year 2012 that were characterised by a "large" magnitude (Mw equal or larger than 7.5) but which produced no or little tsunami effects. Here, "little" is intended as "lower than expected on the basis of the parent earthquake magnitude". The examples we analyse include three earthquakes occurred along the Pacific coasts of Central America (20 March, Mw=7.8, Mexico; 5 September, Mw=7.6, Costa Rica; 7 November, Mw=7.5, Mexico), the Mw=7.6 and Mw=7.7 earthquakes occurred respectively on 31 August and 28 October offshore Philippines and offshore Alaska, and the two Indian Ocean earthquakes registered on a single day (11 April) and characterised by Mw=8.6 and Mw=8.2. For each event, we try to face the problem related to its tsunamigenic potential from two different perspectives. The first can be considered purely scientific and coincides with the question: why was the ensuing tsunami so weak? The answer can be related partly to the particular tectonic setting in the source area, partly to the particular position of the source with respect to the coastline, and finally to the focal mechanism of the earthquake and to the slip distribution on the ruptured fault. The first two pieces of information are available soon after the earthquake occurrence, while the third requires time periods in the order of tens of minutes. The second perspective is more "operational" and coincides with the tsunami early warning perspective, for which the question is: will the earthquake generate a significant tsunami and if so, where will it strike? The Indian Ocean events of 11 April 2012 are perfect examples of the fact that the information on the earthquake magnitude and position alone may not be sufficient to produce reliable tsunami warnings. We emphasise that it is of utmost importance that the focal mechanism determination is obtained in the future much more quickly than it is at present and that this
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gregg, C. E.; Johnston, D. M.; Sorensen, J. H.; Vogt Sorensen, B.; Whitmore, P.
2014-12-01
Many studies since 2004 have documented the dissemination and receipt of risk information for local to distant tsunamis and factors influencing people's responses. A few earlier tsunami studies and numerous studies of other hazards provide additional support for developing effective tsunami messages. This study explores evidence-based approaches to developing such messages for the Pacific and National Tsunami Warning Centers in the US. It extends a message metric developed for the NWS Tsunami Program. People at risk to tsunamis receive information from multiple sources through multiple channels. Sources are official and informal and environmental and social cues. Traditionally, official tsunami messages followed a linear dissemination path through relatively few channels from warning center to emergency management to public and media. However, the digital age has brought about a fundamental change in the dissemination and receipt of official and informal communications. Information is now disseminated in very non-linear paths and all end-user groups may receive the same message simultaneously. Research has demonstrated a range of factors that influence rapid respond to an initial real or perceived threat. Immediate response is less common than one involving delayed protective actions where people first engage in "milling behavior" to exchange information and confirm the warning before taking protective action. The most important message factors to achieve rapid response focus on the content and style of the message and the frequency of dissemination. Previously we developed a tsunami message metric consisting of 21 factors divided into message content and style and receiver characteristics. Initially, each factor was equally weighted to identify gaps, but here we extend the work by weighting specific factors. This utilizes recent research that identifies the most important determinants of protective action. We then discuss the prioritization of message information
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gailler, A.; Hébert, H.; Schindelé, F.; Reymond, D.
2017-11-01
Tsunami modeling tools in the French tsunami Warning Center operational context provide rapidly derived warning levels with a dimensionless variable at basin scale. A new forecast method based on coastal amplification laws has been tested to estimate the tsunami onshore height, with a focus on the French Riviera test-site (Nice area). This fast prediction tool provides a coastal tsunami height distribution, calculated from the numerical simulation of the deep ocean tsunami amplitude and using a transfer function derived from the Green's law. Due to a lack of tsunami observations in the western Mediterranean basin, coastal amplification parameters are here defined regarding high resolution nested grids simulations. The preliminary results for the Nice test site on the basis of nine historical and synthetic sources show a good agreement with the time-consuming high resolution modeling: the linear approximation is obtained within 1 min in general and provides estimates within a factor of two in amplitude, although the resonance effects in harbors and bays are not reproduced. In Nice harbor especially, variation in tsunami amplitude is something that cannot be really assessed because of the magnitude range and maximum energy azimuth of possible events to account for. However, this method is well suited for a fast first estimate of the coastal tsunami threat forecast.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gailler, A.; Schindelé, F.; Hebert, H.; Reymond, D.
2017-12-01
Tsunami modeling tools in the French tsunami Warning Center operational context provide for now warning levels with a no dimension scale, and at basin scale. A new forecast method based on coastal amplification laws has been tested to estimate the tsunami onshore height, with a focus on the French Riviera test-site (Nice area). This fast prediction tool provides a coastal tsunami height distribution, calculated from the numerical simulation of the deep ocean tsunami amplitude and using a transfer function derived from the Green's law. Due to a lack of tsunami observation in the western Mediterranean basin, coastal amplification parameters are here defined regarding high resolution nested grids simulations. The first encouraging results for the Nice test site on the basis of 9 historical and fake sources show a good agreement with the time-consuming high resolution modeling: the linear approximation provides within in general 1 minute estimates less a factor of 2 in amplitude, although the resonance effects in harbors and bays are not reproduced. In Nice harbor especially, variation in tsunami amplitude is something that cannot be really appreciated because of the magnitude range and maximum energy azimuth of possible events to account for. However, this method suits well for a fast first estimate of the coastal tsunami threat forecast.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gailler, A.; Hébert, H.; Schindelé, F.; Reymond, D.
2018-04-01
Tsunami modeling tools in the French tsunami Warning Center operational context provide rapidly derived warning levels with a dimensionless variable at basin scale. A new forecast method based on coastal amplification laws has been tested to estimate the tsunami onshore height, with a focus on the French Riviera test-site (Nice area). This fast prediction tool provides a coastal tsunami height distribution, calculated from the numerical simulation of the deep ocean tsunami amplitude and using a transfer function derived from the Green's law. Due to a lack of tsunami observations in the western Mediterranean basin, coastal amplification parameters are here defined regarding high resolution nested grids simulations. The preliminary results for the Nice test site on the basis of nine historical and synthetic sources show a good agreement with the time-consuming high resolution modeling: the linear approximation is obtained within 1 min in general and provides estimates within a factor of two in amplitude, although the resonance effects in harbors and bays are not reproduced. In Nice harbor especially, variation in tsunami amplitude is something that cannot be really assessed because of the magnitude range and maximum energy azimuth of possible events to account for. However, this method is well suited for a fast first estimate of the coastal tsunami threat forecast.
Tsunami Ionospheric warning and Ionospheric seismology
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lognonne, Philippe; Rolland, Lucie; Rakoto, Virgile; Coisson, Pierdavide; Occhipinti, Giovanni; Larmat, Carene; Walwer, Damien; Astafyeva, Elvira; Hebert, Helene; Okal, Emile; Makela, Jonathan
2014-05-01
The last decade demonstrated that seismic waves and tsunamis are coupled to the ionosphere. Observations of Total Electron Content (TEC) and airglow perturbations of unique quality and amplitude were made during the Tohoku, 2011 giant Japan quake, and observations of much lower tsunamis down to a few cm in sea uplift are now routinely done, including for the Kuril 2006, Samoa 2009, Chili 2010, Haida Gwai 2012 tsunamis. This new branch of seismology is now mature enough to tackle the new challenge associated to the inversion of these data, with either the goal to provide from these data maps or profile of the earth surface vertical displacement (and therefore crucial information for tsunami warning system) or inversion, with ground and ionospheric data set, of the various parameters (atmospheric sound speed, viscosity, collision frequencies) controlling the coupling between the surface, lower atmosphere and the ionosphere. We first present the state of the art in the modeling of the tsunami-atmospheric coupling, including in terms of slight perturbation in the tsunami phase and group velocity and dependance of the coupling strength with local time, ocean depth and season. We then show the confrontation of modelled signals with observations. For tsunami, this is made with the different type of measurement having proven ionospheric tsunami detection over the last 5 years (ground and space GPS, Airglow), while we focus on GPS and GOCE observation for seismic waves. These observation systems allowed to track the propagation of the signal from the ground (with GPS and seismometers) to the neutral atmosphere (with infrasound sensors and GOCE drag measurement) to the ionosphere (with GPS TEC and airglow among other ionospheric sounding techniques). Modelling with different techniques (normal modes, spectral element methods, finite differences) are used and shown. While the fits of the waveform are generally very good, we analyse the differences and draw direction of future
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zamora, N.; Hoechner, A.; Babeyko, A. Y.
2014-12-01
Iran and Pakistan are countries frequently affected by destructive earthquakes, as for instance, the magnitude 6.6 Bam earthquake in 2003 in Iran with about 30 000 casualties, or the magnitude 7.6 Kashmir earthquake 2005 in Pakistan with about 80'000 casualties. Both events took place inland, but in terms of magnitude, even significantly larger events can be expected to happen offshore, at the Makran subduction zone. This small subduction zone is seismically rather quiescent, nevertheless a tsunami caused by a thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss the possiblity of rather rare huge magnitude 9 events at the Makran subduction zone. We analyze the seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 100000 years. All the events are projected onto the plate interface using scaling relations and a tsunami model is run for every scenario. The tsunami hazard along the coast is computed and presented in the form of annual probability of exceedance, probabilistic tsunami height for different time periods and other measures. We show how the hazard reacts to variation of the Gutenberg-Richter parameters and maximum magnitudes.We model the historic Balochistan event and its effect in terms of coastal wave heights. Finally, we show how an effective tsunami early warning could be achieved by using an array of high-precision real-time GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) receivers along the coast by applying it to the 1945 event and by performing a sensitivity analysis.
Estimating Seismic Moment From Broadband P-Waves for Tsunami Warnings.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hirshorn, B. F.
2006-12-01
The Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), located in Ewa Beach, Oahu, Hawaii, is responsible for issuing local, regional, and distant tsunami warnings to Hawaii, and for issuing regional and distant tsunami warnings to the rest of the Pacific Basin, exclusive of the US West Coast. The PTWC must provide these tsunami warnings as soon as technologically possible, based entirely on estimates of a potentially tsunamigenic earthquake's source parameters. We calculate the broadband P-wave moment magnitude, Mwp, from the P or pP wave velocity seismograms [Tsuboi et al., 1995, 1999]. This method appears to work well for regional and teleseismic events [ Tsuboi et al (1999], Whitmore et al (2002), Hirshorn et al (2004) ]. Following Tsuboi, [1995], we consider the displacement record of the P-wave portion of the broadband seismograms as an approximate source time function and integrate this record to obtain the moment rate function, Mo(t), and the moment magnitude [Hanks and Kanamori, 1972] as a function of time, Mw(t). We present results for Mwp for local, regional, and teleseismic broad band recordings for earthquakes in the Mw 5 to 9.3 range. As large Hawaii events are rare, we tested this local case using other Pacific events in the magnitude 5.0 to 7.5 range recorded by nearby stations. Signals were excluded, however, if the epicentral distance was so small (generally less than 1 degree) that there was contamination by the S-wave too closely following the P-waves. Scatter plots of Mwp against the Harvard Mw for these events shows that Mwp does predict Mw well from seismograms recorded at local, regional, and teleseismic distances. For some complex earthquakes, eg. the Mw 8.4(HRV) Peru earthquake of June 21, 2001, Mwp underestimates Mw if the first moment release is not the largest. Our estimates of Mwp for the Mw 9.3 Summatra-Andaman Island's earthquake of December 26, 2004 and for the Mw 8.7 (HRV) Summatra event of March 28, 2005, were Mwp 8
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sepic, Jadranka; Vilibic, Ivica
2016-04-01
Atmospherically-generated tsunami-like waves, also known as meteotsunamis, pose a severe threat for exposed coastlines. Although not as destructive as ordinary tsunamis, several meters high meteotsunami waves can bring destruction, cause loss of human lives and raise panic. For that reason, MESSI, an integrative meteotsunami research & warning project, has been developed and will be presented herein. The project has a threefold base: (1) research of atmosphere-ocean interaction with focus on (i) source processes in the atmosphere, (ii) energy transfer to the ocean and (iii) along-propagation growth of meteotsunami waves; (2) estimation of meteotsunami occurrence rates in past, present and future climate, and mapping of meteotsunami hazard; (3) construction of a meteotsunami warning system prototype, with the latter being the main objective of the project. Due to a great frequency of meteotsunamis and its complex bathymetry which varies from the shallow shelf in the north towards deep pits in the south, with a number of funnel-shaped bays and harbours substantially amplifying incoming tsunami-like waves, the Adriatic, northernmost of the Mediterranean seas, has been chosen as an ideal area for realization of the MESSI project and implementation of the warning system. This warning system will however be designed to allow for a wider applicability and easy-to-accomplish transfer to other endangered locations. The architecture of the warning system will integrate several components: (1) real-time measurements of key oceanographic and atmospheric parameters, (2) coupled atmospheric-ocean models run in real time (warning) mode, and (3) semi-automatic procedures and protocols for warning of civil protection, local authorities and public. The effectiveness of the warning system will be tested over the historic events.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilcock, W. S. D.; Schmidt, D. A.; Vidale, J. E.; Harrington, M.; Bodin, P.; Cram, G.; Delaney, J. R.; Gonzalez, F. I.; Kelley, D. S.; LeVeque, R. J.; Manalang, D.; McGuire, C.; Roland, E. C.; Tilley, J.; Vogl, C. J.; Stoermer, M.
2016-12-01
The Cascadia subduction zone hosts catastrophic earthquakes every few hundred years. On land, there are extensive geophysical networks available to monitor the subduction zone, but since the locked portion of the plate boundary lies mostly offshore, these networks are ideally complemented by seafloor observations. Such considerations helped motivate the development of scientific cabled observatories that cross the subduction zone at two sites off Vancouver Island and one off central Oregon, but these have a limited spatial footprint along the strike of the subduction zone. The Pacific Northwest Seismic Network is leading a collaborative effort to implement an earthquake early warning system in the Washington and Oregon using data streams from land networks as well as the few existing offshore instruments. For subduction zone earthquakes that initiate offshore, this system will provide a warning. However, the availability of real time offshore instrumentation along the entire subduction zone would improve its reliability and accuracy, add up to 15 s to the warning time, and ensure an early warning for coastal communities near the epicenter. Furthermore, real-time networks of seafloor pressure sensors above the subduction zone would enable monitoring and contribute to accurate predictions of the incoming tsunami. There is also strong scientific motivation for offshore monitoring. We lack a complete knowledge of the plate convergence rate and direction. Measurements of steady deformation and observations of transient processes such as fluid pulsing, microseismic cycles, tremor and slow-slip are necessary for assessing the dimensions of the locked zone and its along-strike segmentation. Long-term monitoring will also provide baseline observations that can be used to detect and evaluate changes in the subduction environment. There are significant engineering challenges to be solved to ensure the system is sufficiently reliable and maintainable. It must provide
Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred.
Basher, Reid
2006-08-15
To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards.
Advanced Geospatial Hydrodynamic Signals Analysis for Tsunami Event Detection and Warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arbab-Zavar, Banafshe; Sabeur, Zoheir
2013-04-01
Current early tsunami warning can be issued upon the detection of a seismic event which may occur at a given location offshore. This also provides an opportunity to predict the tsunami wave propagation and run-ups at potentially affected coastal zones by selecting the best matching seismic event from a database of pre-computed tsunami scenarios. Nevertheless, it remains difficult and challenging to obtain the rupture parameters of the tsunamigenic earthquakes in real time and simulate the tsunami propagation with high accuracy. In this study, we propose a supporting approach, in which the hydrodynamic signal is systematically analysed for traces of a tsunamigenic signal. The combination of relatively low amplitudes of a tsunami signal at deep waters and the frequent occurrence of background signals and noise contributes to a generally low signal to noise ratio for the tsunami signal; which in turn makes the detection of this signal difficult. In order to improve the accuracy and confidence of detection, a re-identification framework in which a tsunamigenic signal is detected via the scan of a network of hydrodynamic stations with water level sensing is performed. The aim is to attempt the re-identification of the same signatures as the tsunami wave spatially propagates through the hydrodynamic stations sensing network. The re-identification of the tsunamigenic signal is technically possible since the tsunami signal at the open ocean itself conserves its birthmarks relating it to the source event. As well as supporting the initial detection and improving the confidence of detection, a re-identified signal is indicative of the spatial range of the signal, and thereby it can be used to facilitate the identification of certain background signals such as wind waves which do not have as large a spatial reach as tsunamis. In this paper, the proposed methodology for the automatic detection of tsunamigenic signals has been achieved using open data from NOAA with a recorded
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Laumal, F. E.; Nope, K. B. N.; Peli, Y. S.
2018-01-01
Early warning is a warning mechanism before an actual incident occurs, can be implemented on natural events such as tsunamis or earthquakes. Earthquakes are classified in tectonic and volcanic types depend on the source and nature. The tremor in the form of energy propagates in all directions as Primary and Secondary waves. Primary wave as initial earthquake vibrations propagates longitudinally, while the secondary wave propagates like as a sinusoidal wave after Primary, destructive and as a real earthquake. To process the primary vibration data captured by the earthquake sensor, a network management required client computer to receives primary data from sensors, authenticate and forward to a server computer to set up an early warning system. With the water propagation concept, a method of early warning system has been determined in which some sensors are located on the same line, sending initial vibrations as primary data on the same scale and the server recommended to the alarm sound as an early warning.
Tsunami.gov: NOAA's Tsunami Information Portal
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shiro, B.; Carrick, J.; Hellman, S. B.; Bernard, M.; Dildine, W. P.
2014-12-01
We present the new Tsunami.gov website, which delivers a single authoritative source of tsunami information for the public and emergency management communities. The site efficiently merges information from NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers (TWC's) by way of a comprehensive XML feed called Tsunami Event XML (TEX). The resulting unified view allows users to quickly see the latest tsunami alert status in geographic context without having to understand complex TWC areas of responsibility. The new site provides for the creation of a wide range of products beyond the traditional ASCII-based tsunami messages. The publication of modern formats such as Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) can drive geographically aware emergency alert systems like FEMA's Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS). Supported are other popular information delivery systems, including email, text messaging, and social media updates. The Tsunami.gov portal allows NOAA staff to easily edit content and provides the facility for users to customize their viewing experience. In addition to access by the public, emergency managers and government officials may be offered the capability to log into the portal for special access rights to decision-making and administrative resources relevant to their respective tsunami warning systems. The site follows modern HTML5 responsive design practices for optimized use on mobile as well as non-mobile platforms. It meets all federal security and accessibility standards. Moving forward, we hope to expand Tsunami.gov to encompass tsunami-related content currently offered on separate websites, including the NOAA Tsunami Website, National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, National Geophysical Data Center's Tsunami Database, and National Data Buoy Center's DART Program. This project is part of the larger Tsunami Information Technology Modernization Project, which is consolidating the software architectures of NOAA's existing TWC's into
Tsunami disaster risk management capabilities in Greece
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marios Karagiannis, Georgios; Synolakis, Costas
2015-04-01
Greece is vulnerable to tsunamis, due to the length of the coastline, its islands and its geographical proximity to the Hellenic Arc, an active subduction zone. Historically, about 10% of all world tsunamis occur in the Mediterranean region. Here we review existing tsunami disaster risk management capabilities in Greece. We analyze capabilities across the disaster management continuum, including prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Specifically, we focus on issues like legal requirements, stakeholders, hazard mitigation practices, emergency operations plans, public awareness and education, community-based approaches and early-warning systems. Our research is based on a review of existing literature and official documentation, on previous projects, as well as on interviews with civil protection officials in Greece. In terms of tsunami disaster prevention and hazard mitigation, the lack of tsunami inundation maps, except for some areas in Crete, makes it quite difficult to get public support for hazard mitigation practices. Urban and spatial planning tools in Greece allow the planner to take into account hazards and establish buffer zones near hazard areas. However, the application of such ordinances at the local and regional levels is often difficult. Eminent domain is not supported by law and there are no regulatory provisions regarding tax abatement as a disaster prevention tool. Building codes require buildings and other structures to withstand lateral dynamic earthquake loads, but there are no provisions for resistance to impact loading from water born debris Public education about tsunamis has increased during the last half-decade but remains sporadic. In terms of disaster preparedness, Greece does have a National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) and is a Member of UNESCO's Tsunami Program for North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (NEAM) region. Several exercises have been organized in the framework of the NEAM Tsunami Warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stroker, Kelly; Dunbar, Paula; Mungov, George; Sweeney, Aaron; McCullough, Heather; Carignan, Kelly
2015-04-01
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has primary responsibility in the United States for tsunami forecast, warning, research, and supports community resiliency. NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics provide a unique collection of data enabling communities to ensure preparedness and resilience to tsunami hazards. Immediately following a damaging or fatal tsunami event there is a need for authoritative data and information. The NGDC Global Historical Tsunami Database (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/) includes all tsunami events, regardless of intensity, as well as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that caused fatalities, moderate damage, or generated a tsunami. The long-term data from these events, including photographs of damage, provide clues to what might happen in the future. NGDC catalogs the information on global historical tsunamis and uses these data to produce qualitative tsunami hazard assessments at regional levels. In addition to the socioeconomic effects of a tsunami, NGDC also obtains water level data from the coasts and the deep-ocean at stations operated by the NOAA/NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers, and the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and produces research-quality data to isolate seismic waves (in the case of the deep-ocean sites) and the tsunami signal. These water-level data provide evidence of sea-level fluctuation and possible inundation events. NGDC is also building high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) to support real-time forecasts, implemented at 75 US coastal communities. After a damaging or fatal event NGDC begins to collect and integrate data and information from many organizations into the hazards databases. Sources of data include our NOAA partners, the U.S. Geological Survey, the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and International Tsunami Information Center
Forecasting database for the tsunami warning regional center for the western Mediterranean Sea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gailler, A.; Hebert, H.; Loevenbruck, A.; Hernandez, B.
2010-12-01
Improvements in the availability of sea-level observations and advances in numerical modeling techniques are increasing the potential for tsunami warnings to be based on numerical model forecasts. Numerical tsunami propagation and inundation models are well developed, but they present a challenge to run in real-time, partly due to computational limitations and also to a lack of detailed knowledge on the earthquake rupture parameters. Through the establishment of the tsunami warning regional center for NE Atlantic and western Mediterranean Sea, the CEA is especially in charge of providing rapidly a map with uncertainties showing zones in the main axis of energy at the Mediterranean scale. The strategy is based initially on a pre-computed tsunami scenarios database, as source parameters available a short time after an earthquake occurs are preliminary and may be somewhat inaccurate. Existing numerical models are good enough to provide a useful guidance for warning structures to be quickly disseminated. When an event will occur, an appropriate variety of offshore tsunami propagation scenarios by combining pre-computed propagation solutions (single or multi sources) may be recalled through an automatic interface. This approach would provide quick estimates of tsunami offshore propagation, and aid hazard assessment and evacuation decision-making. As numerical model accuracy is inherently limited by errors in bathymetry and topography, and as inundation maps calculation is more complex and expensive in term of computational time, only tsunami offshore propagation modeling will be included in the forecasting database using a single sparse bathymetric computation grid for the numerical modeling. Because of too much variability in the mechanism of tsunamigenic earthquakes, all possible magnitudes cannot be represented in the scenarios database. In principle, an infinite number of tsunami propagation scenarios can be constructed by linear combinations of a finite number of
Tsunami: ocean dynamo generator.
Sugioka, Hiroko; Hamano, Yozo; Baba, Kiyoshi; Kasaya, Takafumi; Tada, Noriko; Suetsugu, Daisuke
2014-01-08
Secondary magnetic fields are induced by the flow of electrically conducting seawater through the Earth's primary magnetic field ('ocean dynamo effect'), and hence it has long been speculated that tsunami flows should produce measurable magnetic field perturbations, although the signal-to-noise ratio would be small because of the influence of the solar magnetic fields. Here, we report on the detection of deep-seafloor electromagnetic perturbations of 10-micron-order induced by a tsunami, which propagated through a seafloor electromagnetometer array network. The observed data extracted tsunami characteristics, including the direction and velocity of propagation as well as sea-level change, first to verify the induction theory. Presently, offshore observation systems for the early forecasting of tsunami are based on the sea-level measurement by seafloor pressure gauges. In terms of tsunami forecasting accuracy, the integration of vectored electromagnetic measurements into existing scalar observation systems would represent a substantial improvement in the performance of tsunami early-warning systems.
Concerns over modeling and warning capabilities in wake of Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Showstack, Randy
2011-04-01
Improved earthquake models, better tsunami modeling and warning capabilities, and a review of nuclear power plant safety are all greatly needed following the 11 March Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, according to scientists at the European Geosciences Union's (EGU) General Assembly, held 3-8 April in Vienna, Austria. EGU quickly organized a morning session of oral presentations and an afternoon panel discussion less than 1 month after the earthquake and the tsunami and the resulting crisis at Japan's Fukushima nuclear power plant, which has now been identified as having reached the same level of severity as the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. Many of the scientists at the EGU sessions expressed concern about the inability to have anticipated the size of the earthquake and the resulting tsunami, which appears likely to have caused most of the fatalities and damage, including damage to the nuclear plant.
The Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Centre (HL-NTWC): Recent updates and future developments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Melis, Nikolaos S.; Charalampakis, Marinos
2014-05-01
The Hellenic NTWC (HL-NTWC) was established officially by Greek Law in September 2010. HL-NTWC is hosted at the National Observatory of Athens, Institute of Geodynamics (NOA-IG), which also operates a 24/7 earthquake monitoring service in Greece and coordinates the newly established Hellenic Unified National Seismic Network. NOA-IG and HL-NTWC Operational Centre is linked to the Civil Protection Operational Centre and serves as the official alerting agency to the General Secretariat for Civil Protection in Greece, regarding earthquake events and tsunami watch. Since August 2012, HL-NTWC acts as Candidate Tsunami Watch Provider (CTWP) under the UNESCO IOC - ICG NEAMTWS tsunami warning system (NEAM: North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas) and offers its services to the NEAMTWS system. HL-NTWC has participated in all Communication Test Exercises (CTE) under NEAMTWS and also it has provided tsunami scenarios for extended system testing exercises such as NEAMWAVE12. Some of the recent developments at HL-NTWC in Greece include: deployment of new tide gauge stations for tsunami watch purposes, computation of tsunami scenarios and extending the database in use, improving alerting response times, earthquake magnitude estimation and testing newly established software modules for tsunami and earthquake alerting (i.e. Early-Est, SeisComP3 etc.) in Greece and the Eastern Mediterranean. Although funding today is limited, an advantage of the participation in important EC funded research projects, i.e. NERIES, NERA, TRANSFER, NEAMTIC and ASTARTE, demonstrates that collaboration of top class Research Institutions that care to produce important and useful results in the research front in Europe, can facilitate towards developing and operating top class Operational Centers, useful for Civil Protection purposes in regions in need. Last, it is demonstrated that HL-NTWC collaboration with important key role Research Centers in the Security and Safety issues (e
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weinstein, S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.
2013-12-01
An important issue that vexes tsunami warning centers (TWCs) is when to cancel a tsunami warning once it is in effect. Emergency managers often face a variety of pressures to allow the public to resume their normal activities, but allowing coastal populations to return too quickly can put them at risk. A TWC must, therefore, exercise caution when cancelling a warning. Kim and Whitmore (2013) show that in many cases a TWC can use the decay of tsunami oscillations in a harbor to forecast when its amplitudes will fall to safe levels. This technique should prove reasonably robust for local tsunamis (those that are potentially dangerous within only 100 km of their source region) and for regional tsunamis (whose danger is limited to within 1000km of the source region) as well. For ocean-crossing destructive tsunamis such as the 11 March 2011 Tohoku tsunami, however, this technique may be inadequate. When a tsunami propagates across the ocean basin, it will encounter topographic obstacles such as seamount chains or coastlines, resulting in coherent reflections that can propagate great distances. When these reflections reach previously-impacted coastlines, they can recharge decaying tsunami oscillations and make them hazardous again. Warning center scientists should forecast sea-level records for 24 hours beyond the initial tsunami arrival in order to observe any potential reflections that may pose a hazard. Animations are a convenient way to visualize reflections and gain a broad geographic overview of their impacts. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has developed tools based on tsunami simulations using the RIFT tsunami forecast model. RIFT is a linear, parallelized numerical tsunami propagation model that runs very efficiently on a multi-CPU system (Wang et al, 2012). It can simulate 30-hours of tsunami wave propagation in the Pacific Ocean at 4 arc minute resolution in approximately 6 minutes of real time on a 12-CPU system. Constructing a 30-hour animation using 1
The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program: Successes in Tsunami Preparedness
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R. I.
2012-12-01
Formed in 1995 by Congressional Action, the National Tsunami Hazards Mitigation Program (NTHMP) provides the framework for tsunami preparedness activities in the United States. The Program consists of the 28 U.S. coastal states, territories, and commonwealths (STCs), as well as three Federal agencies: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Since its inception, the NTHMP has advanced tsunami preparedness in the United States through accomplishments in many areas of tsunami preparedness: - Coordination and funding of tsunami hazard analysis and preparedness activities in STCs; - Development and execution of a coordinated plan to address education and outreach activities (materials, signage, and guides) within its membership; - Lead the effort to assist communities in meeting National Weather Service (NWS) TsunamiReady guidelines through development of evacuation maps and other planning activities; - Determination of tsunami hazard zones in most highly threatened coastal communities throughout the country by detailed tsunami inundation studies; - Development of a benchmarking procedure for numerical tsunami models to ensure models used in the inundation studies meet consistent, NOAA standards; - Creation of a national tsunami exercise framework to test tsunami warning system response; - Funding community tsunami warning dissemination and reception systems such as sirens and NOAA Weather Radios; and, - Providing guidance to NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers regarding warning dissemination and content. NTHMP activities have advanced the state of preparedness of United States coastal communities, and have helped save lives and property during recent tsunamis. Program successes as well as future plans, including maritime preparedness, are discussed.
Seismogeodesy for rapid earthquake and tsunami characterization
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bock, Y.
2016-12-01
Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude and fault mechanism is critical for earthquake and tsunami warning systems. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. These methods are well developed for ocean basin-wide warnings but are not timely enough to protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure from the effects of local tsunamis, where waves may arrive within 15-30 minutes of earthquake onset time. Direct measurements of displacements by GPS networks at subduction zones allow for rapid magnitude and slip estimation in the near-source region, that are not affected by instrumental limitations and magnitude saturation experienced by local seismic networks. However, GPS displacements by themselves are too noisy for strict earthquake early warning (P-wave detection). Optimally combining high-rate GPS and seismic data (in particular, accelerometers that do not clip), referred to as seismogeodesy, provides a broadband instrument that does not clip in the near field, is impervious to magnitude saturation, and provides accurate real-time static and dynamic displacements and velocities in real time. Here we describe a NASA-funded effort to integrate GPS and seismogeodetic observations as part of NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. It consists of a series of plug-in modules that allow for a hierarchy of rapid seismogeodetic products, including automatic P-wave picking, hypocenter estimation, S-wave prediction, magnitude scaling relationships based on P-wave amplitude (Pd) and peak ground displacement (PGD), finite-source CMT solutions and fault slip models as input for tsunami warnings and models. For the NOAA/NASA project, the modules are being integrated into an existing USGS Earthworm environment, currently limited to traditional seismic data. We are focused on a network of
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mencin, David; Hodgkinson, Kathleen; Braun, John; Meertens, Charles; Mattioli, Glen; Phillips, David; Blume, Fredrick; Berglund, Henry; Fox, Otina; Feaux, Karl
2015-04-01
The GAGE facility, managed by UNAVCO, maintains and operates about 1300 GNSS stations distributed across North and Central America as part of the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) and the Continuously Operating Caribbean GPS Observational Network (COCONet). UNAVCO has upgraded about 450 stations in these networks to real-time and high-rate (RT-GNSS) and included surface meteorological instruments. The majority of these streaming stations are part of the PBO but also include approximately 50 RT-GNSS stations in the Caribbean and Central American region as part of the COCONet and TLALOCNet projects. Based on community input UNAVCO has been exploring ways to increase the capability and utility of these resources to improve our understanding in diverse areas of geophysics including seismic, volcanic, magmatic and tsunami deformation sources, extreme weather events such as hurricanes and storms, and space weather. The RT-GNSS networks also have the potential to profoundly transform our ability to rapidly characterize geophysical events, provide early warning, as well as improve hazard mitigation and response. Specific applications currently under development with university, commercial, non-profit and government collaboration on national and international scales include earthquake and tsunami early warning systems and near real-time tropospheric modeling of hurricanes and precipitable water vapor estimate assimilation. Using tsunami early warning as an example, an RT-GNSS network can provide multiple inputs in an operational system starting with rapid assessment of earthquake sources and associated deformation which informs the initial modeled tsunami. The networks can then can also provide direct measurements of the tsunami wave heights and propagation by tracking the associated ionospheric disturbance from several 100's of km away as the waves approaches the shoreline. These GNSS based constraints can refine the tsunami and inundation models and potentially
Yong, Wei; Newman, Andrew V.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Titov, Vasily V.; Tang, Liujuan
2014-01-01
Correctly characterizing tsunami source generation is the most critical component of modern tsunami forecasting. Although difficult to quantify directly, a tsunami source can be modeled via different methods using a variety of measurements from deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some of which in or near real time. Here we assess the performance of different source models for the destructive 11 March 2011 Japan tsunami using model–data comparison for the generation, propagation, and inundation in the near field of Japan. This comparative study of tsunami source models addresses the advantages and limitations of different real-time measurements with potential use in early tsunami warning in the near and far field. The study highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements and rapid validation of the approximate tsunami source for high-quality forecasting. We show that these tsunami measurements are compatible with other real-time geodetic data, and may provide more insightful understanding of tsunami generation from earthquakes, as well as from nonseismic processes such as submarine landslide failures.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bernardi, F.; Lomax, A.; Michelini, A.; Lauciani, V.; Piatanesi, A.; Lorito, S.
2015-09-01
In this paper we present and discuss the performance of the procedure for earthquake location and characterization implemented in the Italian Candidate Tsunami Service Provider at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) in Rome. Following the ICG/NEAMTWS guidelines, the first tsunami warning messages are based only on seismic information, i.e., epicenter location, hypocenter depth, and magnitude, which are automatically computed by the software Early-est. Early-est is a package for rapid location and seismic/tsunamigenic characterization of earthquakes. The Early-est software package operates using offline-event or continuous-real-time seismic waveform data to perform trace processing and picking, and, at a regular report interval, phase association, event detection, hypocenter location, and event characterization. Early-est also provides mb, Mwp, and Mwpd magnitude estimations. mb magnitudes are preferred for events with Mwp ≲ 5.8, while Mwpd estimations are valid for events with Mwp ≳ 7.2. In this paper we present the earthquake parameters computed by Early-est between the beginning of March 2012 and the end of December 2014 on a global scale for events with magnitude M ≥ 5.5, and we also present the detection timeline. We compare the earthquake parameters automatically computed by Early-est with the same parameters listed in reference catalogs. Such reference catalogs are manually revised/verified by scientists. The goal of this work is to test the accuracy and reliability of the fully automatic locations provided by Early-est. In our analysis, the epicenter location, hypocenter depth and magnitude parameters do not differ significantly from the values in the reference catalogs. Both mb and Mwp magnitudes show differences to the reference catalogs. We thus derived correction functions in order to minimize the differences and correct biases between our values and the ones from the reference catalogs. Correction of the Mwp
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2012-02-09
... information following testing of the associated NWS communications systems. The tests are planned annually, in March/April and again in September. Post-test feedback information will be requested from emergency... Collection; Comment Request; Feedback Survey for Annual Tsunami Warning Communications Tests AGENCY: National...
Introduction to "Tsunami Science: Ten Years After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Volume I"
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Borrero, Jose C.
2015-03-01
Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Tsunami Science: Ten Years after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami." Eight papers examine various aspects of past events with an emphasis on case and regional studies. Five papers are on tsunami warning and forecast, including the improvement of existing tsunami warning systems and the development of new warning systems in the northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean region. Three more papers present the results of analytical studies and discuss benchmark problems. Four papers report the impacts of tsunamis, including the detailed calculation of inundation onshore and into rivers and probabilistic analysis for engineering purposes. The final two papers relate to important investigations of the source and tsunami generation. Overall, the volume not only addresses the pivotal 2004 Indian Ocean (Sumatra) and 2011 Japan (Tohoku) tsunamis, but also examines the tsunami hazard posed to other critical coasts in the world.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ulutas, E.; Inan, A.; Annunziato, A.
2012-06-01
This study analyzes the response of the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS) in relation to a case study: the Kepulaunan Mentawai earthquake and related tsunami, which occurred on 25 October 2010. The GDACS, developed by the European Commission Joint Research Center, combines existing web-based disaster information management systems with the aim to alert the international community in case of major disasters. The tsunami simulation system is an integral part of the GDACS. In more detail, the study aims to assess the tsunami hazard on the Mentawai and Sumatra coasts: the tsunami heights and arrival times have been estimated employing three propagation models based on the long wave theory. The analysis was performed in three stages: (1) pre-calculated simulations by using the tsunami scenario database for that region, used by the GDACS system to estimate the alert level; (2) near-real-time simulated tsunami forecasts, automatically performed by the GDACS system whenever a new earthquake is detected by the seismological data providers; and (3) post-event tsunami calculations using GCMT (Global Centroid Moment Tensor) fault mechanism solutions proposed by US Geological Survey (USGS) for this event. The GDACS system estimates the alert level based on the first type of calculations and on that basis sends alert messages to its users; the second type of calculations is available within 30-40 min after the notification of the event but does not change the estimated alert level. The third type of calculations is performed to improve the initial estimations and to have a better understanding of the extent of the possible damage. The automatic alert level for the earthquake was given between Green and Orange Alert, which, in the logic of GDACS, means no need or moderate need of international humanitarian assistance; however, the earthquake generated 3 to 9 m tsunami run-up along southwestern coasts of the Pagai Islands where 431 people died. The post
Integrating TWES and Satellite-based remote sensing: Lessons learned from the Honshu 2011 Tsunami
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Joachim
2013-04-01
The Boxing Day Tsunami killed 240,000 people and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Honshu 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for TEWS research still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages to areas at risk, but also to other stakeholders professionally involved in the unfolding event. Until now remote sensing products for Tsunami events, including crisis maps and change detection products, are exclusively linked to those phases of the disaster life cycle, which follow after the early warning stage: Response, recovery and mitigation. The International Charter for Space and Major Disasters has been initiated by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) in 1999. It coordinates a voluntary group of governmental space agencies and industry partners, to provide rapid crisis imaging and mapping to disaster and relief organisations to mitigate the effects of disasters on human life, property and the environment. The efficiency of this approach has been demonstrated in the field of Tsunami early warning by Charter activations following the Boxing Day Tsunami 2004, the Chile Tsunami 2010 and the Honshu Tsunami 2011. Traditional single-satellite operations allow at best bimonthly repeat rates over a given Area of Interest (AOI). This allows a lot of time for image acquisition campaign planning between imaging windows for the same AOI. The advent of constellations of identical remote sensing satellites in the early 21st century resulted both in daily AOI revisit capabilities and drastically reduced time frames for acquisition planning. However, the image acquisition planning for optical remote sensing satellite constellations is constrained by orbital and communication
Space geodetic tools provide early warnings for earthquakes and volcanic eruptions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aoki, Yosuke
2017-04-01
Development of space geodetic techniques such as Global Navigation Satellite System and Synthetic Aperture Radar in last few decades allows us to monitor deformation of Earth's surface in unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. These observations, combined with fast data transmission and quick data processing, enable us to quickly detect and locate earthquakes and volcanic eruptions and assess potential hazards such as strong earthquake shaking, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. These techniques thus are key parts of early warning systems, help identify some hazards before a cataclysmic event, and improve the response to the consequent damage.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Melgar, D.; Bock, Y.; Crowell, B. W.; Haase, J. S.
2013-12-01
Computation of predicted tsunami wave heights and runup in the regions adjacent to large earthquakes immediately after rupture initiation remains a challenging problem. Limitations of traditional seismological instrumentation in the near field which cannot be objectively employed for real-time inversions and the non-unique source inversion results are a major concern for tsunami modelers. Employing near-field seismic, GPS and wave gauge data from the Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we test the capacity of static finite fault slip models obtained from newly developed algorithms to produce reliable tsunami forecasts. First we demonstrate the ability of seismogeodetic source models determined from combined land-based GPS and strong motion seismometers to forecast near-source tsunamis in ~3 minutes after earthquake origin time (OT). We show that these models, based on land-borne sensors only tend to underestimate the tsunami but are good enough to provide a realistic first warning. We then demonstrate that rapid ingestion of offshore shallow water (100 - 1000 m) wave gauge data significantly improves the model forecasts and possible warnings. We ingest data from 2 near-source ocean-bottom pressure sensors and 6 GPS buoys into the earthquake source inversion process. Tsunami Green functions (tGFs) are generated using the GeoClaw package, a benchmarked finite volume code with adaptive mesh refinement. These tGFs are used for a joint inversion with the land-based data and substantially improve the earthquake source and tsunami forecast. Model skill is assessed by detailed comparisons of the simulation output to 2000+ tsunami runup survey measurements collected after the event. We update the source model and tsunami forecast and warning at 10 min intervals. We show that by 20 min after OT the tsunami is well-predicted with a high variance reduction to the survey data and by ~30 minutes a model that can be considered final, since little changed is observed afterwards, is
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grilli, S. T.; Guérin, C. A.; Shelby, M. R.; Grilli, A. R.; Insua, T. L.; Moran, P., Jr.
2016-12-01
A High-Frequency (HF) radar was installed by Ocean Networks Canada in Tofino, BC, to detect tsunamis from far- and near-field seismic sources; in particular, from the Cascadia Subduction Zone. This HF radar can measure ocean surface currents up to a 70-85 km range, depending on atmospheric conditions, based on the Doppler shift they cause in ocean waves at the Bragg frequency. In earlier work, we showed that tsunami currents must be at least 0.15 m/s to be directly detectable by a HF radar, when considering environmental noise and background currents (from tide/mesoscale circulation). This limits a direct tsunami detection to shallow water areas where currents are sufficiently strong due to wave shoaling and, hence, to the continental shelf. It follows that, in locations with a narrow shelf, warning times using a direct inversion method will be small. To detect tsunamis in deeper water, beyond the continental shelf, we proposed a new algorithm that does not require directly inverting currents, but instead is based on observing changes in patterns of spatial correlations of the raw radar signal between two radar cells located along the same wave ray, after time is shifted by the tsunami propagation time along the ray. A pattern change will indicate the presence of a tsunami. We validated this new algorithm for idealized tsunami wave trains propagating over a simple seafloor geometry in a direction normally incident to shore. Here, we further develop, extend, and validate the algorithm for realistic case studies of seismic tsunami sources impacting Vancouver Island, BC. Tsunami currents, computed with a state-of-the-art long wave model are spatially averaged over cells aligned along individual wave rays, located within the radar sweep area, obtained by solving the wave geometric optic equation; for long waves, such rays and tsunami propagation times along those are only function of the seafloor bathymetry, and hence can be precalculated for different incident tsunami
A new real-time tsunami detection algorithm
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chierici, F.; Embriaco, D.; Pignagnoli, L.
2016-12-01
Real-time tsunami detection algorithms play a key role in any Tsunami Early Warning System. We have developed a new algorithm for tsunami detection based on the real-time tide removal and real-time band-pass filtering of sea-bed pressure recordings. The algorithm greatly increases the tsunami detection probability, shortens the detection delay and enhances detection reliability, at low computational cost. The algorithm is designed to be used also in autonomous early warning systems with a set of input parameters and procedures which can be reconfigured in real time. We have also developed a methodology based on Monte Carlo simulations to test the tsunami detection algorithms. The algorithm performance is estimated by defining and evaluating statistical parameters, namely the detection probability, the detection delay, which are functions of the tsunami amplitude and wavelength, and the occurring rate of false alarms. Pressure data sets acquired by Bottom Pressure Recorders in different locations and environmental conditions have been used in order to consider real working scenarios in the test. We also present an application of the algorithm to the tsunami event which occurred at Haida Gwaii on October 28th, 2012 using data recorded by the Bullseye underwater node of Ocean Networks Canada. The algorithm successfully ran for test purpose in year-long missions onboard the GEOSTAR stand-alone multidisciplinary abyssal observatory, deployed in the Gulf of Cadiz during the EC project NEAREST and on NEMO-SN1 cabled observatory deployed in the Western Ionian Sea, operational node of the European research infrastructure EMSO.
The Pacific tsunami warning system
Pararas-Carayannis, G.
1986-01-01
The impact of tsunamis on human societies can be traced back in written history to 480 BC, when the Minoan civilization in the Eastern Mediterranean was wiped out by great tsunami waves generated by the volcanic explosion of the island of Santorin. In the Pacific Ocean where the majority of these waves have been generated, the historical record, although brief, shows tremendous destruction. In Japan which has one of the most populated coastal regions in the world and a long history of earthquake activity, tsunamis have destroyed entire coastal communities. There is also history of tsunami destruction in Alaska, in Hawaiian Islands, and in South America.
Implementing Obstetric Early Warning Systems.
Friedman, Alexander M; Campbell, Mary L; Kline, Carolyn R; Wiesner, Suzanne; D'Alton, Mary E; Shields, Laurence E
2018-04-01
Severe maternal morbidity and mortality are often preventable and obstetric early warning systems that alert care providers of potential impending critical illness may improve maternal safety. While literature on outcomes and test characteristics of maternal early warning systems is evolving, there is limited guidance on implementation. Given current interest in early warning systems and their potential role in care, the 2017 Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM) Annual Meeting dedicated a session to exploring early warning implementation across a wide range of hospital settings. This manuscript reports on key points from this session. While implementation experiences varied based on factors specific to individual sites, common themes relevant to all hospitals presenting were identified. Successful implementation of early warnings systems requires administrative and leadership support, dedication of resources, improved coordination between nurses, providers, and ancillary staff, optimization of information technology, effective education, evaluation of and change in hospital culture and practices, and support in provider decision-making. Evolving data on outcomes on early warning systems suggest that maternal risk may be reduced. To effectively reduce maternal, risk early warning systems that capture deterioration from a broad range of conditions may be required in addition to bundles tailored to specific conditions such as hemorrhage, thromboembolism, and hypertension.
Physical Observations of the Tsunami during the September 8th 2017 Tehuantepec, Mexico Earthquake
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Corona, N.; Ruiz-Angulo, A.; Melgar, D.; Zavala-Hidalgo, J.
2017-12-01
The September 8th 2017, Mw8.2 earthquake offshore Chiapas, Mexico, is the largest earthquake recorded history in Chiapas since 1902. It caused damage in the states of Oaxaca, Chiapas and Tabasco; it had more than 100 fatalities, over 1.5 million people were affected, and 41,000 homes were damaged in the state of Chiapas alone. This earthquake, a deep intraplate event on a normal fault on the oceanic subducting plate, generated a tsunami recorded at several tide gauge stations in Mexico and on the Pacific Ocean. Here we report the physical effects of the tsunami on the Chiapas coast and analyze the societal implications of this tsunami on the basis of our field observations. Tide gauge data indicate 11.3 and 8.2 cm of coastal subsidence at Salina Cruz and Puerto Chiapas stations. The associated tsunami waves were recorded first at Salina Cruz tide gauge station at 5:13 (GMT). We covered ground observations along 41 km of the coast of Chiapas, encompassing the sites with the highest projected wave heights based on the preliminary tsunami model (maximum tsunami amplitudes between -94.5 and -93.0 W). Runup and inundation distances were measured with an RTK GPS and using a Sokkia B40 level along 8 sites. We corrected runup data with estimated astronomical tide levels at the time of the tsunami. The tsunami occurred at low tide. The maximum runup was 3 m at Boca del Cielo, and maximum inundation distance was 190 m in Puerto Arista, corresponding to the coast directly opposite the epicenter and in the central sector of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In general, our field data agree with the predicted results from the preliminary tsunami model. Tsunami scour and erosion was evident on the Chiapas coast. Tsunami deposits, mainly sand, reached up to 32 cm thickness thinning landwards up to 172 m distance. Even though the Mexican tsunami early warning system (CAT) issued several warnings, the tsunami arrival struck the Chiapas coast prior to the arrival of official warnings to the
Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.
2014-12-01
Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.
Potential coping capacities to avoid tsunamis in Mentawai
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Panjaitan, Berton; Gomez, Christopher; Pawson, Eric
2017-07-01
In 2010 a tsunamigenic earthquake triggered tsunami waves reaching the Mentawai archipelago in less than ten minutes. Similar events can occur any time as seismic scholars predict enormous energy remains trapped on the Sunda Megathrust - approximately 30 km offshore from the archipelago. Therefore, the local community of Mentawai is vulnerable to tsunami hazards. In the absence of modern technology to monitor the sea surface interventions, existing strategies need to be improved. This study was based on a qualitative research and literature review about developing coping capacity on tsunami hazards for Mentawai. A community early-warning system is the main strategy to develop the coping capacity at the community level. This consists of risk knowledge, monitoring, warning dissemination, and capability response. These are interlocked and are an end-to-end effort. From the study, the availability of risk assessments and risk mappings were mostly not found at dusun, whereas they are effective to increase tsunami risk knowledge. Also, the monitoring of tsunami waves can be maximized by strengthening and expanding the community systems for the people to avoid the waves. Moreover, the traditional tools are potential to deliver warnings. Lastly, although the local government has provided a few public facilities to increase the response capability, the people often ignore them. Therefore, their traditional values should be revitalized.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Farreras, Salvador; Ortiz, Modesto; Gonzalez, Juan I.
2007-03-01
The highly vulnerable Pacific southwest coast of Mexico has been repeatedly affected by local, regional and remote source tsunamis. Mexico presently has no national tsunami warning system in operation. The implementation of key elements of a National Program on Tsunami Detection, Monitoring, Warning and Mitigation is in progress. For local and regional events detection and monitoring, a prototype of a robust and low cost high frequency sea-level tsunami gauge, sampling every minute and equipped with 24 hours real time transmission to the Internet, was developed and is currently in operation. Statistics allow identification of low, medium and extreme hazard categories of arriving tsunamis. These categories are used as prototypes for computer simulations of coastal flooding. A finite-difference numerical model with linear wave theory for the deep ocean propagation, and shallow water nonlinear one for the near shore and interaction with the coast, and non-fixed boundaries for flooding and recession at the coast, is used. For prevention purposes, tsunami inundation maps for several coastal communities, are being produced in this way. The case of the heavily industrialized port of Lázaro Cárdenas, located on the sand shoals of a river delta, is illustrated; including a detailed vulnerability assessment study. For public education on preparedness and awareness, printed material for children and adults has been developed and published. It is intended to extend future coverage of this program to the Mexican Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas.
A Pilot Tsunami Inundation Forecast System for Australia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Allen, Stewart C. R.; Greenslade, Diana J. M.
2016-12-01
The Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) provides a tsunami warning service for Australia. Warnings are currently issued according to a technique that does not include explicit modelling at the coastline, including any potential coastal inundation. This paper investigates the feasibility of developing and implementing tsunami inundation modelling as part of the JATWC warning system. An inundation model was developed for a site in Southeast Australia, on the basis of the availability of bathymetric and topographic data and observations of past tsunamis. The model was forced using data from T2, the operational deep-water tsunami scenario database currently used for generating warnings. The model was evaluated not only for its accuracy but also for its computational speed, particularly with respect to operational applications. Limitations of the proposed forecast processes in the Australian context and areas requiring future improvement are discussed.
Detecting Tsunami Source Energy and Scales from GNSS & Laboratory Experiments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Song, Y. T.; Yim, S. C.; Mohtat, A.
2016-12-01
Historically, tsunami warnings based on the earthquake magnitude have not been very accurate. According to the 2006 U.S. Government Accountability Office report, an unacceptable 75% false alarm rate has prevailed in the Pacific Ocean (GAO-06-519). One of the main reasons for those inaccurate warnings is that an earthquake's magnitude is not the scale or power of the resulting tsunami. For the last 10 years, we have been developing both theories and algorithms to detect tsunami source energy and scales, instead of earthquake magnitudes per se, directly from real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations along coastlines for early warnings [Song 2007; Song et al., 2008; Song et al., 2012; Xu and Song 2013; Titov et al, 2016]. Here we will report recent progress on two fronts: 1) Examples of using GNSS in detecting the tsunami energy scales for the 2004 Sumatra M9.1 earthquake, the 2005 Nias M8.7 earthquake, the 2010 M8.8 Chilean earthquake, the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, and the 2015 M8.3 Illapel earthquake. 2) New results from recent state-of-the-art wave-maker experiments and comparisons with GNSS data will also be presented. Related reference: Titov, V., Y. T. Song, L. Tang, E. N. Bernard, Y. Bar-Sever, and Y. Wei (2016), Consistent estimates of tsunami energy show promise for improved early warning, Pur Appl. Geophs., DOI: 10.1007/s00024-016-1312-1. Xu, Z. and Y. T. Song (2013), Combining the all-source Green's functions and the GPS-derived source for fast tsunami prediction - illustrated by the March 2011 Japan tsunami, J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech., jtechD1200201. Song, Y. T., I. Fukumori, C. K. Shum, and Y. Yi (2012), Merging tsunamis of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake detected over the open ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2011GL050767. Song, Y. T., L.-L. Fu, V. Zlotnicki, C. Ji, V. Hjorleifsdottir, C.K. Shum, and Y. Yi, 2008: The role of horizontal impulses of the faulting continental slope in generating the 26 December 2004 Tsunami (2007
Educating and Preparing for Tsunamis in the Caribbean
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Aliaga, B.; Edwards, S.
2013-12-01
The Caribbean and Adjacent Regions has a long history of tsunamis and earthquakes. Over the past 500 years, more than 75 tsunamis have been documented in the region by the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. Just since 1842, 3446 lives have been lost to tsunamis; this is more than in the Northeastern Pacific for the same time period. With a population of almost 160 million, over 40 million visitors a year and a heavy concentration of residents, tourists, businesses and critical infrastructure along its shores (especially in the northern and eastern Caribbean), the risk to lives and livelihoods is greater than ever before. The only way to survive a tsunami is to get out of harm's way before the waves strike. In the Caribbean given the relatively short distances from faults, potential submarine landslides and volcanoes to some of the coastlines, the tsunamis are likely to be short fused, so it is imperative that tsunami warnings be issued extremely quickly and people be educated on how to recognize and respond. Nevertheless, given that tsunamis occur infrequently as compared with hurricanes, it is a challenge for them to receive the priority they require in order to save lives when the next one strikes the region. Close cooperation among countries and territories is required for warning, but also for education and public awareness. Geographical vicinity and spoken languages need to be factored in when developing tsunami preparedness in the Caribbean, to make sure citizens receive a clear, reliable and sound science based message about the hazard and the risk. In 2006, in the wake of the Indian Ocean tsunami and after advocating without success for a Caribbean Tsunami Warning System since the mid 90's, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO established the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS). Its purpose is to advance an end to end tsunami
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Macpherson, K. A.
2017-12-01
The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National and Pacific Tsunami Warning Centers currently rely on traditional seismic data in order to detect and evaluate potential tsunamigenic earthquakes anywhere on the globe. The first information products disseminated by the centers following a significant seismic event are based solely on seismically-derived earthquake locations and magnitudes, and are issued within minutes of the earthquake origin time. Thus, the rapid and reliable determination of the earthquake magnitude is a critical piece of information needed by the centers to generate the appropriate alert levels. However, seismically-derived magnitudes of large events are plagued by well-known problems, particularly during the first few minutes following the origin time; near-source broad-band instruments may go off scale, and magnitudes tend to saturate until sufficient teleseismic data arrive to represent the long-period signal that characterizes large events. However, geodetic data such as high-rate Global Positioning System (hGPS) displacements and seismogeodetic data that is a combination of collocated hGPS and accelerometer data do not suffer from these limitations. These sensors stay on scale, even for large events, and they record both dynamic and static displacements that may be used to estimate magnitude without saturation. Therefore, there is an ongoing effort to incorporate these data streams into the operations of the tsunami warning centers to enhance current magnitude determination capabilities, and eventually, to invert the geodetic displacements for mechanism and finite-fault information. These later quantities will be useful for tsunami modeling and forecasting. The tsunami warning centers rely on the Earthworm system for real-time data acquisition, so we have developed Earthworm modules for the Magnitude from Peak Ground Displacement (MPGD) algorithm, developed at the University of Washington and the University of California
ASTARTE: Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baptista, M. A.; Yalciner, A. C.; Canals, M.
2014-12-01
enhancement of the Tsunami Warning System in the NEAM region in terms of monitoring, early warning and forecast, governance and resilience. This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3)
Tsunami Detection by High-Frequency Radar Beyond the Continental Shelf
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grilli, Stéphan T.; Grosdidier, Samuel; Guérin, Charles-Antoine
2016-12-01
Where coastal tsunami hazard is governed by near-field sources, such as submarine mass failures or meteo-tsunamis, tsunami propagation times may be too small for a detection based on deep or shallow water buoys. To offer sufficient warning time, it has been proposed to implement early warning systems relying on high-frequency (HF) radar remote sensing, that can provide a dense spatial coverage as far offshore as 200-300 km (e.g., for Diginext Ltd.'s Stradivarius radar). Shore-based HF radars have been used to measure nearshore currents (e.g., CODAR SeaSonde® system; http://www.codar.com/), by inverting the Doppler spectral shifts, these cause on ocean waves at the Bragg frequency. Both modeling work and an analysis of radar data following the Tohoku 2011 tsunami, have shown that, given proper detection algorithms, such radars could be used to detect tsunami-induced currents and issue a warning. However, long wave physics is such that tsunami currents will only rise above noise and background currents (i.e., be at least 10-15 cm/s), and become detectable, in fairly shallow water which would limit the direct detection of tsunami currents by HF radar to nearshore areas, unless there is a very wide shallow shelf. Here, we use numerical simulations of both HF radar remote sensing and tsunami propagation to develop and validate a new type of tsunami detection algorithm that does not have these limitations. To simulate the radar backscattered signal, we develop a numerical model including second-order effects in both wind waves and radar signal, with the wave angular frequency being modulated by a time-varying surface current, combining tsunami and background currents. In each "radar cell", the model represents wind waves with random phases and amplitudes extracted from a specified (wind speed dependent) energy density frequency spectrum, and includes effects of random environmental noise and background current; phases, noise, and background current are extracted from
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bagiya, Mala S.; Kherani, E. A.; Sunil, P. S.; Sunil, A. S.; Sunda, S.; Ramesh, D. S.
2017-07-01
The presence of ionospheric disturbances associated with Sumatra 2004 tsunami that propagated ahead of tsunami itself has previously been identified. However, their origin remains unresolved till date. Focusing on their origin mechanism, we document these ionospheric disturbances referred as Ahead of tsunami Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (ATIDs). Using total electron content (TEC) data from GPS Aided GEO Augmented Navigation GPS receivers located near the Indian east coast, we first confirm the ATIDs presence in TEC that appear 90 min ahead of the arrival of tsunami at the Indian east coast. We propose here a simulation study based on tsunami-atmospheric-ionospheric coupling that considers tsunamigenic acoustic gravity waves (AGWs) to excite these disturbances. We explain the ATIDs generation based on the dissipation of transverse mode of the primary AGWs. The simulation corroborates the excitation of ATIDs with characteristics similar to the observations. Therefore, we offer an alternative theoretical tool to monitor the offshore ATIDs where observations are either rare or not available and could be potentially important for the tsunami early warning.
Quantifying human response capabilities towards tsunami threats at community level
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Post, J.; Mück, M.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Taubenböck, H.; Strunz, G.; Muhari, A.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.
2009-04-01
Decision makers at the community level need detailed information on tsunami risks in their area. Knowledge on potential hazard impact, exposed elements such as people, critical facilities and lifelines, people's coping capacity and recovery potential are crucial to plan precautionary measures for adaptation and to mitigate potential impacts of tsunamis on society and the environment. A crucial point within a people-centred tsunami risk assessment is to quantify the human response capabilities towards tsunami threats. Based on this quantification and spatial representation in maps tsunami affected and safe areas, difficult-to-evacuate areas, evacuation target points and evacuation routes can be assigned and used as an important contribution to e.g. community level evacuation planning. Major component in the quantification of human response capabilities towards tsunami impacts is the factor time. The human response capabilities depend on the estimated time of arrival (ETA) of a tsunami, the time until technical or natural warning signs (ToNW) can be received, the reaction time (RT) of the population (human understanding of a tsunami warning and the decision to take appropriate action), the evacuation time (ET, time people need to reach a safe area) and the actual available response time (RsT = ETA - ToNW - RT). If RsT is larger than ET, people in the respective areas are able to reach a safe area and rescue themselves. Critical areas possess RsT values equal or even smaller ET and hence people whin these areas will be directly affected by a tsunami. Quantifying the factor time is challenging and an attempt to this is presented here. The ETA can be derived by analyzing pre-computed tsunami scenarios for a respective area. For ToNW we assume that the early warning center is able to fulfil the Indonesian presidential decree to issue a warning within 5 minutes. RT is difficult as here human intrinsic factors as educational level, believe, tsunami knowledge and experience
Evaluation and Numerical Simulation of Tsunami for Coastal Nuclear Power Plants of India
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Sharma, Pavan K.; Singh, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.
2006-07-01
Recent tsunami generated on December 26, 2004 due to Sumatra earthquake of magnitude 9.3 resulted in inundation at the various coastal sites of India. The site selection and design of Indian nuclear power plants demand the evaluation of run up and the structural barriers for the coastal plants: Besides it is also desirable to evaluate the early warning system for tsunami-genic earthquakes. The tsunamis originate from submarine faults, underwater volcanic activities, sub-aerial landslides impinging on the sea and submarine landslides. In case of a submarine earthquake-induced tsunami the wave is generated in the fluid domain due to displacement of themore » seabed. There are three phases of tsunami: generation, propagation, and run-up. Reactor Safety Division (RSD) of Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Trombay has initiated computational simulation for all the three phases of tsunami source generation, its propagation and finally run up evaluation for the protection of public life, property and various industrial infrastructures located on the coastal regions of India. These studies could be effectively utilized for design and implementation of early warning system for coastal region of the country apart from catering to the needs of Indian nuclear installations. This paper presents some results of tsunami waves based on different analytical/numerical approaches with shallow water wave theory. (authors)« less
Tsunami Detection Systems for International Requirements
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lawson, R. A.
2007-12-01
Results are presented regarding the first commercially available, fully operational, tsunami detection system to have passed stringent U.S. government testing requirements and to have successfully demonstrated its ability to detect an actual tsunami at sea. Spurred by the devastation of the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami that killed more than 230,000 people, the private sector actively supported the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's (IOC"s) efforts to develop a tsunami warning system and mitigation plan for the Indian Ocean region. As each country in the region developed its requirements, SAIC recognized that many of these underdeveloped countries would need significant technical assistance to fully execute their plans. With the original focus on data fusion, consequence assessment tools, and warning center architecture, it was quickly realized that the cornerstone of any tsunami warning system would be reliable tsunami detection buoys that could meet very stringent operational standards. Our goal was to leverage extensive experience in underwater surveillance and oceanographic sensing to produce an enhanced and reliable deep water sensor that could meet emerging international requirements. Like the NOAA Deep-ocean Assessment and Recording of Tsunamis (DART TM ) buoy, the SAIC Tsunami Buoy (STB) system consists of three subsystems: a surfaccommunications buoy subsystem, a bottom pressure recorder subsystem, and a buoy mooring subsystem. With the operational success that DART has demonstrated, SAIC decided to build and test to the same high standards. The tsunami detection buoy system measures small changes in the depth of the deep ocean caused by tsunami waves as they propagate past the sensor. This is accomplished by using an extremely sensitive bottom pressure sensor/recorder to measure very small changes in pressure as the waves move past the buoy system. The bottom pressure recorder component includes a processor with algorithms that
Program and abstracts of the Second Tsunami Source Workshop; July 19-20, 2010
Lee, W.H.K.; Kirby, S.H.; Diggles, M.F.
2010-01-01
In response to a request by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for computing tsunami propagations in the western Pacific, Eric Geist asked Willie Lee for assistance in providing parameters of earthquakes which may be future tsunami sources. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Tsunami Source Working Group (TSWG) was initiated in August 2005. An ad hoc group of diverse expertise was formed, with Steve Kirby as the leader. The founding members are: Rick Blakely, Eric Geist, Steve Kirby, Willie Lee, George Plafker, Dave Scholl, Roland von Huene, and Ray Wells. Half of the founding members are USGS emeritus scientists. A report was quickly completed because of NOAA's urgent need to precalculate tsunami propagation paths for early warning purposes. It was clear to the group that much more work needed to be done to improve our knowledge about tsunami sources worldwide. The group therefore started an informal research program on tsunami sources and meets irregularly to share ideas, data, and results. Because our group activities are open to anyone, we have more participants now, including, for example, Harley Benz and George Choy (USGS, Golden, Colo.), Holly Ryan and Stephanie Ross (USGS, Menlo Park, Calif.), Hiroo Kanamori (Caltech), Emile Okal (Northwestern University), and Gerard Fryer and Barry Hirshorn (Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, Hawaii). To celebrate the fifth anniversary of the TSWG, a workshop is being held in the Auditorium of Building 3, USGS, Menlo Park, on July 19-20, 2010 (Willie Lee and Steve Kirby, Conveners). All talks (except one) will be video broadcast. The first tsunami source workshop was held in April 2006 with about 100 participants from many institutions. This second workshop (on a much smaller scale) will be devoted primarily to recent work by the USGS members. In addition, Hiroo Kanamori (Caltech) will present his recent work on the 1960 and 2010 Chile earthquakes, Barry Hirshorn and Stuart Weinstein (Pacific Tsunami
Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Gonzalez, Frank
2009-04-06
After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.
Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System
Gonzalez, Frank
2017-12-09
After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.
The First Real-Time Tsunami Animation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; McCreery, C.; Weinstein, S.; Ward, B.
2014-12-01
For the first time a U.S. tsunami warning center created and issued a tsunami forecast model animation while the tsunami was still crossing an ocean. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) scientists had predicted they would have this ability (Becker et al., 2012) with their RIFT forecast model (Wang et al., 2009) by using rapidly-determined W-phase centroid-moment tensor earthquake focal mechanisms as tsunami sources in the RIFT model (Wang et al., 2012). PTWC then acquired its own YouTube channel in 2013 for its outreach efforts that showed animations of historic tsunamis (Becker et al., 2013), but could also be a platform for sharing future tsunami animations. The 8.2 Mw earthquake of 1 April 2014 prompted PTWC to issue official warnings for a dangerous tsunami in Chile, Peru and Ecuador. PTWC ended these warnings five hours later, then issued its new tsunami marine hazard product (i.e., no coastal evacuations) for the State of Hawaii. With the international warning canceled but with a domestic hazard still present PTWC generated a forecast model animation and uploaded it to its YouTube channel six hours before the arrival of the first waves in Hawaii. PTWC also gave copies of this animation to television reporters who in turn passed it on to their national broadcast networks. PTWC then created a version for NOAA's Science on a Sphere system so it could be shown on these exhibits as the tsunami was still crossing the Pacific Ocean. While it is difficult to determine how many people saw this animation since local, national, and international news networks showed it in their broadcasts, PTWC's YouTube channel provides some statistics. As of 1 August 2014 this animation has garnered more than 650,000 views. Previous animations, typically released during significant anniversaries, rarely get more than 10,000 views, and even then only when external websites share them. Clearly there is a high demand for a tsunami graphic that shows both the speed and the severity of a
Signals in the ionosphere generated by tsunami earthquakes: observations and modeling suppor
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rolland, L.; Sladen, A.; Mikesell, D.; Larmat, C. S.; Rakoto, V.; Remillieux, M.; Lee, R.; Khelfi, K.; Lognonne, P. H.; Astafyeva, E.
2017-12-01
Forecasting systems failed to predict the magnitude of the 2011 great tsunami in Japan due to the difficulty and cost of instrumenting the ocean with high-quality and dense networks. Melgar et al. (2013) show that using all of the conventional data (inland seismic, geodetic, and tsunami gauges) with the best inversion method still fails to predict the correct height of the tsunami before it breaks onto a coast near the epicenter (< 500 km). On the other hand, in the last decade, scientists have gathered convincing evidence of transient signals in the ionosphere Total Electron Content (TEC) observations that are associated to open ocean tsunami waves. Even though typical tsunami waves are only a few centimeters high, they are powerful enough to create atmospheric vibrations extending all the way to the ionosphere, 300 kilometers up in the atmosphere. Therefore, we are proposing to incorporate the ionospheric signals into tsunami early-warning systems. We anticipate that the method could be decisive for mitigating "tsunami earthquakes" which trigger tsunamis larger than expected from their short-period magnitude. These events are challenging to characterize as they rupture the near-trench subduction interface, in a distant region less constrained by onshore data. As a couple of devastating tsunami earthquakes happens per decade, they represent a real threat for onshore populations and a challenge for tsunami early-warning systems. We will present the TEC observations of the recent Java 2006 and Mentawaii 2010 tsunami earthquakes and base our analysis on acoustic ray tracing, normal modes summation and the simulation code SPECFEM, which solves the wave equation in coupled acoustic (ocean, atmosphere) and elastic (solid earth) domains. Rupture histories are entered as finite source models, which will allow us to evaluate the effect of a relatively slow rupture on the surrounding ocean and atmosphere.
Towards Operational Meteotsunami Early Warning System: the Adriatic Project MESSI
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vilibic, I.; Sepic, J.; Denamiel, C. L.; Mihanovic, H.; Muslim, S.; Tudor, M.; Ivankovic, D.; Jelavic, D.; Kovacevic, V.; Masce, T.; Dadic, V.; Gacic, M.; Horvath, K.; Monserrat, S.; Rabinovich, A.; Telisman-Prtenjak, M.
2017-12-01
A number of destructive meteotsunamis - atmospherically-driven long ocean waves in a tsunami frequency band - occurred during the last decade through the world oceans. Owing to significant damage caused by these meteotsunamis, several scientific groups (occasionally in collaboration with public offices) have started developing meteotsunami warning systems. Creation of one such system has been initialized in the late 2015 within the MESSI (Meteotsunamis, destructive long ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band: from observations and simulations towards a warning system) project. Main goal of this project is to build a prototype of a meteotsunami warning system for the eastern Adriatic coast. The system will be based on real-time measurements, operational atmosphere and ocean modeling and real time decision-making process. Envisioned MESSI meteotsunami warning system consists of three modules: (1) synoptic warning module, which will use established correlation between forecasted synoptic fields and high-frequency sea level oscillations to provide qualitative meteotsunami forecasts for up to a week in advance, (2) probabilistic premodeling prediction module, which will use operational WRF-ROMS-ADCIRC modeling system and compare the forecast with an atlas of presimulations to get the probabilistic meteotsunami forecast for up to three days in advance, and (3) real-time module, which is based on real time tracking of properties of air pressure disturbance (amplitude, speed, direction, period, ...) and their real-time comparison with the atlas of meteotsunami simulations. System will be tested on recent meteotsunami events which were recorded in the MESSI area shortly after the operational meteotsunami network installation. Albeit complex, such a multilevel warning system has a potential to be adapted to most meteotsunami hot spots, simply by tuning the system parameters to the available atmospheric and ocean data.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo
2013-04-01
Geoscientists deal often with hazardous processes like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc., and their research is aimed not only to a better understanding of the physical processes, but also to provide assessment of the space and temporal evolution of a given individual event (i.e. to provide short-term prediction) and of the expected evolution of a group of events (i.e. to provide statistical estimates referred to a given return period, and a given geographical area). One of the main issues of any scientific method is how to cope with measurement errors, a topic which in case of forecast of ongoing or of future events translates into how to deal with forecast uncertainties. In general, the more data are available and processed to make a prediction, the more accurate the prediction is expected to be if the scientific approach is sound, and the smaller the associated uncertainties are. However, there are several important cases where assessment is to be made with insufficient data or insufficient time for processing, which leads to large uncertainties. Two examples can be given taken from tsunami science, since tsunamis are rare events that may have destructive power and very large impact. One example is the case of warning for a tsunami generated by a near-coast earthquake, which is an issue at the focus of the European funded project NearToWarn. Warning has to be launched before tsunami hits the coast, that is in a few minutes after its generation. This may imply that data collected in such a short time are not yet enough for an accurate evaluation, also because the implemented monitoring system (if any) could be inadequate (f.i. one reason of inadequacy could be that implementing a dense instrumental network could be judged too expensive for rare events) The second case is the long term prevention from tsunami strikes. Tsunami infrequency may imply that the historical record for a given piece of coast is too short to capture a statistical
Sources of information for tsunami forecasting in New Zealand
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barberopoulou, A.; Ristau, J. P.; D'Anastasio, E.; Wang, X.
2013-12-01
Tsunami science has evolved considerably in the last two decades due to technological advancements which also helped push for better numerical modelling of the tsunami phases (generation to inundation). The deployment of DART buoys has also been a considerable milestone in tsunami forecasting. Tsunami forecasting is one of the parts that tsunami modelling feeds into and is related to response, preparedness and planning. Usually tsunami forecasting refers to short-term forecasting that takes place in real-time after a tsunami has or appears to have been generated. In this report we refer to all types of forecasting (short-term or long-term) related to work in advance of a tsunami impacting a coastline that would help in response, planning or preparedness. We look at the standard types of data (seismic, GPS, water level) that are available in New Zealand for tsunami forecasting, how they are currently being used, other ways to use these data and provide recommendations for better utilisation. The main findings are: -Current investigations of the use of seismic parameters quickly obtained after an earthquake, have potential to provide critical information about the tsunamigenic potential of earthquakes. Further analysis of the most promising methods should be undertaken to determine a path to full implementation. -Network communication of the largest part of the GPS network is not currently at a stage that can provide sufficient data early enough for tsunami warning. It is believed that it has potential, but changes including data transmission improvements may have to happen before real-time processing oriented to tsunami early warning is implemented on the data that is currently provided. -Tide gauge data is currently under-utilised for tsunami forecasting. Spectral analysis, modal analysis based on identified modes and arrival times extracted from the records can be useful in forecasting. -The current study is by no means exhaustive of the ways the different types
Real time assessment of the 15 July 2009 New Zealand tsunami
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Uslu, Burak; Power, William; Greensdale, Dianne; Titov, Vasily
2010-05-01
On the 15th July 2009 a Mw 7.6 earthquake occurred off the coast of Fiordland in the South Island of New Zealand, about 1200 km from Auckland, New Zealand, 1500 km from Hobart, Tasmania and 1800 km from Sydney, Australia. A tsunami was generated and an initial warning issued by the PTWC. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate issued its first tsunami warning for coastal regions of eastern Australia and New Zealand 24 minutes after the earthquake. By serendipitous coincidence, the earthquake struck while the International Tsunami Symposium was in session in Novosibirsk Russia. This provided the opportunity to test, in real-time, several tsunami warning systems in front of attending scientists (Schiermeier, 2009). NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, GNS Science, and Centre for Australian Weather and Climate scientists were present at the symposium and worked together. Vasily Titov showed "live" NOAA's methodology (Bernard et al, 2006) to assess the tsunami potential and, in consultation with colleagues, provided warning guidance, and the warning was eventually canceled. We discuss how the forecast was done and how accurate the initial determination was. References Bernard E.N. et al., 2006, Tsunami: scientific frontiers, mitigation, forecasting and policy implications, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 364:1989-2007; doi:10.1098/rsta.2006.1809 Schiermeier, Q., 2009, Tsunami forecast in real time, Published online 16 July 2009 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news.2009.702
Tsunamis: bridging science, engineering and society.
Kânoğlu, U; Titov, V; Bernard, E; Synolakis, C
2015-10-28
Tsunamis are high-impact, long-duration disasters that in most cases allow for only minutes of warning before impact. Since the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami, there have been significant advancements in warning methodology, pre-disaster preparedness and basic understanding of related phenomena. Yet, the trail of destruction of the 2011 Japan tsunami, broadcast live to a stunned world audience, underscored the difficulties of implementing advances in applied hazard mitigation. We describe state of the art methodologies, standards for warnings and summarize recent advances in basic understanding, and identify cross-disciplinary challenges. The stage is set to bridge science, engineering and society to help build up coastal resilience and reduce losses. © 2015 The Author(s).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Michelini, Alberto; Lomax, Anthony
2017-04-01
The impact of an earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, severe weather or other natural disaster is related to: the intensity of the hazard; the vulnerability or exposure of the population, such as housing quality, infrastructure and proximity to a coastlines; and the capacity to resist and cope with the disaster. Rapid assessment by monitoring agencies of the impact of a natural event is fundamental for early warning and response. We previously* proposed the "tsunami importance" parameter, It, for characterizing the strength of a tsunami. This parameter combines 5 descriptive indices from the NOAA/WDC Historical Tsunami Database: 4 tsunami impact measures (deaths, injuries, damage, houses destroyed), and maximum water height. Accordingly, It = 2 corresponds approximately to the JMA threshold for issuing a ''Tsunami Warning'' whereas the largest or most devastating tsunamis typically have It = 10. Here we discuss extending this simple, 5-component parameter with additional impact-related measures from relevant databases (e.g., LandScan population density, major infrastructures) and historical / archaeological information, and measures that might be obtained in near-real-time (e.g., emergency services, news, social media). We combine these measures with seismological and other real-time observations as an ensemble of features within automated procedures to estimate impact and guide decision making. We examine using modern machine learning methodologies to train and calibrate the procedures, while working with high-dimensional feature space. * Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2011), Tsunami early warning using earthquake rupture duration and P-wave dominant period: the importance of length and depth of faulting, Geophys. J. Int., 185, 283-291, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04916.x
Performances of the New Real Time Tsunami Detection Algorithm applied to tide gauges data
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chierici, F.; Embriaco, D.; Morucci, S.
2017-12-01
Real-time tsunami detection algorithms play a key role in any Tsunami Early Warning System. We have developed a new algorithm for tsunami detection (TDA) based on the real-time tide removal and real-time band-pass filtering of seabed pressure time series acquired by Bottom Pressure Recorders. The TDA algorithm greatly increases the tsunami detection probability, shortens the detection delay and enhances detection reliability with respect to the most widely used tsunami detection algorithm, while containing the computational cost. The algorithm is designed to be used also in autonomous early warning systems with a set of input parameters and procedures which can be reconfigured in real time. We have also developed a methodology based on Monte Carlo simulations to test the tsunami detection algorithms. The algorithm performance is estimated by defining and evaluating statistical parameters, namely the detection probability, the detection delay, which are functions of the tsunami amplitude and wavelength, and the occurring rate of false alarms. In this work we present the performance of the TDA algorithm applied to tide gauge data. We have adapted the new tsunami detection algorithm and the Monte Carlo test methodology to tide gauges. Sea level data acquired by coastal tide gauges in different locations and environmental conditions have been used in order to consider real working scenarios in the test. We also present an application of the algorithm to the tsunami event generated by Tohoku earthquake on March 11th 2011, using data recorded by several tide gauges scattered all over the Pacific area.
Tsunami evacuation mathematical model for the city of Padang
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kusdiantara, R.; Hadianti, R.; Badri Kusuma, M. S.
2012-05-22
Tsunami is a series of wave trains which travels with high speed on the sea surface. This traveling wave is caused by the displacement of a large volume of water after the occurrence of an underwater earthquake or volcano eruptions. The speed of tsunami decreases when it reaches the sea shore along with the increase of its amplitudes. Two large tsunamis had occurred in the last decades in Indonesia with huge casualties and large damages. Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System has been installed along the west coast of Sumatra. This early warning system will give about 10-15 minutes to evacuatemore » people from high risk regions to the safe areas. Here in this paper, a mathematical model for Tsunami evacuation is presented with the city of Padang as a study case. In the model, the safe areas are chosen from the existing and selected high rise buildings, low risk region with relatively high altitude and (proposed to be built) a flyover ring road. Each gathering points are located in the radius of approximately 1 km from the ring road. The model is formulated as an optimization problem with the total normalized evacuation time as the objective function. The constraints consist of maximum allowable evacuation time in each route, maximum capacity of each safe area, and the number of people to be evacuated. The optimization problem is solved numerically using linear programming method with Matlab. Numerical results are shown for various evacuation scenarios for the city of Padang.« less
A Sensitivity Analysis of Tsunami Inversions on the Number of Stations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
An, Chao; Liu, Philip L.-F.; Meng, Lingsen
2018-05-01
Current finite-fault inversions of tsunami recordings generally adopt as many tsunami stations as possible to better constrain earthquake source parameters. In this study, inversions are evaluated by the waveform residual that measures the difference between model predictions and recordings, and the dependence of the quality of inversions on the number tsunami stations is derived. Results for the 2011 Tohoku event show that, if the tsunami stations are optimally located, the waveform residual decreases significantly with the number of stations when the number is 1 ˜ 4 and remains almost constant when the number is larger than 4, indicating that 2 ˜ 4 stations are able to recover the main characteristics of the earthquake source. The optimal location of tsunami stations is explained in the text. Similar analysis is applied to the Manila Trench in the South China Sea using artificially generated earthquakes and virtual tsunami stations. Results confirm that 2 ˜ 4 stations are necessary and sufficient to constrain the earthquake source parameters, and the optimal sites of stations are recommended in the text. The conclusion is useful for the design of new tsunami warning systems. Current strategies of tsunameter network design mainly focus on the early detection of tsunami waves from potential sources to coastal regions. We therefore recommend that, in addition to the current strategies, the waveform residual could also be taken into consideration so as to minimize the error of tsunami wave prediction for warning purposes.
Tsunami risk mapping simulation for Malaysia
Teh, S.Y.; Koh, H. L.; Moh, Y.T.; De Angelis, D. L.; Jiang, J.
2011-01-01
The 26 December 2004 Andaman mega tsunami killed about a quarter of a million people worldwide. Since then several significant tsunamis have recurred in this region, including the most recent 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami. These tsunamis grimly remind us of the devastating destruction that a tsunami might inflict on the affected coastal communities. There is evidence that tsunamis of similar or higher magnitudes might occur again in the near future in this region. Of particular concern to Malaysia are tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring along the northern part of the Sunda Trench. Further, the Manila Trench in the South China Sea has been identified as another source of potential tsunamigenic earthquakes that might trigger large tsunamis. To protect coastal communities that might be affected by future tsunamis, an effective early warning system must be properly installed and maintained to provide adequate time for residents to be evacuated from risk zones. Affected communities must be prepared and educated in advance regarding tsunami risk zones, evacuation routes as well as an effective evacuation procedure that must be taken during a tsunami occurrence. For these purposes, tsunami risk zones must be identified and classified according to the levels of risk simulated. This paper presents an analysis of tsunami simulations for the South China Sea and the Andaman Sea for the purpose of developing a tsunami risk zone classification map for Malaysia based upon simulated maximum wave heights. ?? 2011 WIT Press.
Developing Tsunami Evacuation Plans, Maps, And Procedures: Pilot Project in Central America
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arcos, N. P.; Kong, L. S. L.; Arcas, D.; Aliaga, B.; Coetzee, D.; Leonard, J.
2015-12-01
In the End-to-End tsunami warning chain, once a forecast is provided and a warning alert issued, communities must know what to do and where to go. The 'where to' answer would be reliable and practical community-level tsunami evacuation maps. Following the Exercise Pacific Wave 2011, a questionnaire was sent to the 46 Member States of Pacific Tsunami Warning System (PTWS). The results revealed over 42 percent of Member States lacked tsunami mass coastal evacuation plans. Additionally, a significant gap in mapping was exposed as over 55 percent of Member States lacked tsunami evacuation maps, routes, signs and assembly points. Thereby, a significant portion of countries in the Pacific lack appropriate tsunami planning and mapping for their at-risk coastal communities. While a variety of tools exist to establish tsunami inundation areas, these are inconsistent while a methodology has not been developed to assist countries develop tsunami evacuation maps, plans, and procedures. The International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) and partners is leading a Pilot Project in Honduras demonstrating that globally standardized tools and methodologies can be applied by a country, with minimal tsunami warning and mitigation resources, towards the determination of tsunami inundation areas and subsequently community-owned tsunami evacuation maps and plans for at-risk communities. The Pilot involves a 1- to 2-year long process centered on a series of linked tsunami training workshops on: evacuation planning, evacuation map development, inundation modeling and map creation, tsunami warning & emergency response Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), and conducting tsunami exercises (including evacuation). The Pilot's completion is capped with a UNESCO/IOC document so that other countries can replicate the process in their tsunami-prone communities.
Tsunami Amplitude Estimation from Real-Time GNSS.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jeffries, C.; MacInnes, B. T.; Melbourne, T. I.
2017-12-01
Tsunami early warning systems currently comprise modeling of observations from the global seismic network, deep-ocean DART buoys, and a global distribution of tide gauges. While these tools work well for tsunamis traveling teleseismic distances, saturation of seismic magnitude estimation in the near field can result in significant underestimation of tsunami excitation for local warning. Moreover, DART buoy and tide gauge observations cannot be used to rectify the underestimation in the available time, typically 10-20 minutes, before local runup occurs. Real-time GNSS measurements of coseismic offsets may be used to estimate finite faulting within 1-2 minutes and, in turn, tsunami excitation for local warning purposes. We describe here a tsunami amplitude estimation algorithm; implemented for the Cascadia subduction zone, that uses continuous GNSS position streams to estimate finite faulting. The system is based on a time-domain convolution of fault slip that uses a pre-computed catalog of hydrodynamic Green's functions generated with the GeoClaw shallow-water wave simulation software and maps seismic slip along each section of the fault to points located off the Cascadia coast in 20m of water depth and relies on the principle of the linearity in tsunami wave propagation. The system draws continuous slip estimates from a message broker, convolves the slip with appropriate Green's functions which are then superimposed to produce wave amplitude at each coastal location. The maximum amplitude and its arrival time are then passed into a database for subsequent monitoring and display. We plan on testing this system using a suite of synthetic earthquakes calculated for Cascadia whose ground motions are simulated at 500 existing Cascadia GPS sites, as well as real earthquakes for which we have continuous GNSS time series and surveyed runup heights, including Maule, Chile 2010 and Tohoku, Japan 2011. This system has been implemented in the CWU Geodesy Lab for the Cascadia
THE TSUNAMI SERVICE BUS, AN INTEGRATION PLATFORM FOR HETEROGENEOUS SENSOR SYSTEMS
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fleischer, J.; Häner, R.; Herrnkind, S.; Kriegel, U.; Schwarting, H.; Wächter, J.
2009-12-01
The Tsunami Service Bus (TSB) is the sensor integration platform of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) [1]. The primary goal of GITEWS is to deliver reliable tsunami warnings as fast as possible. This is achieved on basis of various sensor systems like seismometers, ocean instrumentation, and GPS stations, all providing fundamental data to support prediction of tsunami wave propagation by the GITEWS warning center. However, all these sensors come with their own proprietary data formats and specific behavior. Also new sensor types might be added, old sensors will be replaced. To keep GITEWS flexible the TSB was developed in order to access and control sensors in a uniform way. To meet these requirements the TSB follows the architectural blueprint of a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). The integration platform implements dedicated services communicating via a service infrastructure. The functionality required for early warnings is provided by loosely coupled services replacing the "hard-wired" coupling at data level. Changes in the sensor specification are confined to the data level without affecting the warning center. Great emphasis was laid on following the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) standard [2], specified by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) [3]. As a result the full functionality needed in GITEWS could be achieved by implementing the four SWE services: The Sensor Observation Service for retrieving sensor measurements, the Sensor Alert Service in order to deliver sensor alerts, the Sensor Planning Service for tasking sensors, and the Web Notification Service for conduction messages to various media channels. Beyond these services the TSB also follows SWE Observation & Measurements specifications (O&M) for data encoding and Sensor Model Language (SensorML) for meta information. Moreover, accessing sensors via the TSB is not restricted to GITEWS. Multiple instances of the TSB can be composed to realize federate warning system
Real-time correction of tsunami site effect by frequency-dependent tsunami-amplification factor
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tsushima, H.
2017-12-01
For tsunami early warning, I developed frequency-dependent tsunami-amplification factor and used it to design a recursive digital filter that can be applicable for real-time correction of tsunami site response. In this study, I assumed that a tsunami waveform at an observing point could be modeled by convolution of source, path and site effects in time domain. Under this assumption, spectral ratio between offshore and the nearby coast can be regarded as site response (i.e. frequency-dependent amplification factor). If the amplification factor can be prepared before tsunamigenic earthquakes, its temporal convolution to offshore tsunami waveform provides tsunami prediction at coast in real time. In this study, tsunami waveforms calculated by tsunami numerical simulations were used to develop frequency-dependent tsunami-amplification factor. Firstly, I performed numerical tsunami simulations based on nonlinear shallow-water theory from many tsuanmigenic earthquake scenarios by varying the seismic magnitudes and locations. The resultant tsunami waveforms at offshore and the nearby coastal observing points were then used in spectral-ratio analysis. An average of the resulted spectral ratios from the tsunamigenic-earthquake scenarios is regarded as frequency-dependent amplification factor. Finally, the estimated amplification factor is used in design of a recursive digital filter that can be applicable in time domain. The above procedure is applied to Miyako bay at the Pacific coast of northeastern Japan. The averaged tsunami-height spectral ratio (i.e. amplification factor) between the location at the center of the bay and the outside show a peak at wave-period of 20 min. A recursive digital filter based on the estimated amplification factor shows good performance in real-time correction of tsunami-height amplification due to the site effect. This study is supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI grant 15K16309.
Marine, Tropical, and Tsunami Services
essential to the conduct of safe and efficient maritime operations and for the protection of the marine - Managed by National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) Awareness Weeks: Tsunami Preparedness Campaigns National Safe Prepared and Stay Safe! Tsunami Preparedness: Applying Lessons from the Past Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
Tsunami Simulation Method Assimilating Ocean Bottom Pressure Data Near a Tsunami Source Region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tanioka, Yuichiro
2018-02-01
A new method was developed to reproduce the tsunami height distribution in and around the source area, at a certain time, from a large number of ocean bottom pressure sensors, without information on an earthquake source. A dense cabled observation network called S-NET, which consists of 150 ocean bottom pressure sensors, was installed recently along a wide portion of the seafloor off Kanto, Tohoku, and Hokkaido in Japan. However, in the source area, the ocean bottom pressure sensors cannot observe directly an initial ocean surface displacement. Therefore, we developed the new method. The method was tested and functioned well for a synthetic tsunami from a simple rectangular fault with an ocean bottom pressure sensor network using 10 arc-min, or 20 km, intervals. For a test case that is more realistic, ocean bottom pressure sensors with 15 arc-min intervals along the north-south direction and sensors with 30 arc-min intervals along the east-west direction were used. In the test case, the method also functioned well enough to reproduce the tsunami height field in general. These results indicated that the method could be used for tsunami early warning by estimating the tsunami height field just after a great earthquake without the need for earthquake source information.
Tsunami evacuation buildings and evacuation planning in Banda Aceh, Indonesia.
Yuzal, Hendri; Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric
Indonesia, a country of more than 17,000 islands, is exposed to many hazards. A magnitude 9.1 earthquake struck off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, on December 26, 2004. It triggered a series of tsunami waves that spread across the Indian Ocean causing damage in 11 countries. Banda Aceh, the capital city of Aceh Province, was among the most damaged. More than 31,000 people were killed. At the time, there were no early warning systems nor evacuation buildings that could provide safe refuge for residents. Since then, four tsunami evacuation buildings (TEBs) have been constructed in the Meuraxa subdistrict of Banda Aceh. Based on analysis of evacuation routes and travel times, the capacity of existing TEBs is examined. Existing TEBs would not be able to shelter all of the at-risk population. In this study, additional buildings and locations for TEBs are proposed and residents are assigned to the closest TEBs. While TEBs may be part of a larger system of tsunami mitigation efforts, other strategies and approaches need to be considered. In addition to TEBs, robust detection, warning and alert systems, land use planning, training, exercises, and other preparedness strategies are essential to tsunami risk reduction.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gensch, S.; Wächter, J.; Schnor, B.
2014-12-01
Early warning systems (EWS) are safety-critical IT-infrastructures that serve the purpose of potentially saving lives or assets by observing real-world phenomena and issuing timely warning products to authorities and communities. An EWS consists of sensors, communication networks, data centers, simulation platforms, and dissemination channels. The components of this cyber-physical system may all be affected by both natural hazards and malfunctions of components alike. Resilience engineering so far has mostly been applied to safety-critical systems and processes in transportation (aviation, automobile), construction and medicine. Early warning systems need equivalent techniques to compensate for failures, and furthermore means to adapt to changing threats, emerging technology and research findings. We present threats and pitfalls from our experiences with the German and Indonesian tsunami early warning system, as well as architectural, technological and organizational concepts employed that can enhance an EWS' resilience. The current EWS is comprised of a multi-type sensor data upstream part, different processing and analysis engines, a decision support system, and various warning dissemination channels. Each subsystem requires a set of approaches towards ensuring stable functionality across system layer boundaries, including also institutional borders. Not only must services be available, but also produce correct results. Most sensors are distributed components with restricted resources, communication channels and power supply. An example for successful resilience engineering is the power capacity based functional management for buoy and tide gauge stations. We discuss various fault-models like cause and effect models on linear pathways, interaction of multiple events, complex and non-linear interaction of assumedly reliable subsystems and fault tolerance means implemented to tackle these threats.
2006 - 2016: Ten Years Of Tsunami In French Polynesia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reymond, D.; Jamelot, A.; Hyvernaud, O.
2016-12-01
Located in South central Pacific and despite of its far field situation, the French Polynesia is very much concerned by the tsunamis generated along the major subduction zones located around the Pacific. At the time of writing, 10 tsunamis have been generated in the Pacific Ocean since 2006; all these events recorded in French Polynesia, produced different levels of warning, starting from a simple seismic warning with an information bulletin, up to an effective tsunami warning with evacuation of the coastal zone. These tsunamigenic events represent an invaluable opportunity of evolutions and tests of the tsunami warning system developed in French Polynesia: during the last ten years, the warning rules had evolved from a simple criterion of magnitudes up to the computation of the main seismic source parameters (location, slowness determinant (Newman & Okal, 1998) and focal geometry) using two independent methods: the first one uses an inversion of W-phases (Kanamori & Rivera, 2012) and the second one performs an inversion of long period surface waves (Clément & Reymond, 2014); the source parameters such estimated allow to compute in near real time the expected distributions of tsunami heights (with the help of a super-computer and parallelized codes of numerical simulations). Furthermore, two kinds of numerical modeling are used: the first one, very rapid (performed in about 5minutes of computation time) is based on the Green's law (Jamelot & Reymond, 2015), and a more detailed and precise one that uses classical numerical simulations through nested grids (about 45 minutes of computation time). Consequently, the criteria of tsunami warning are presently based on the expected tsunami heights in the different archipelagos and islands of French Polynesia. This major evolution allows to differentiate and use different levels of warning for the different archipelagos,working in tandem with the Civil Defense. We present the comparison of the historical observed tsunami
Challenges in Defining Tsunami Wave Height
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stroker, K. J.; Dunbar, P. K.; Mungov, G.; Sweeney, A.; Arcos, N. P.
2017-12-01
The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics maintain the global tsunami archive consisting of the historical tsunami database, imagery, and raw and processed water level data. The historical tsunami database incorporates, where available, maximum wave heights for each coastal tide gauge and deep-ocean buoy that recorded a tsunami signal. These data are important because they are used for tsunami hazard assessment, model calibration, validation, and forecast and warning. There have been ongoing discussions in the tsunami community about the correct way to measure and report these wave heights. It is important to understand how these measurements might vary depending on how the data were processed and the definition of maximum wave height. On September 16, 2015, an 8.3 Mw earthquake located 48 km west of Illapel, Chile generated a tsunami that was observed all over the Pacific region. We processed the time-series water level data for 57 tide gauges that recorded this tsunami and compared the maximum wave heights determined from different definitions. We also compared the maximum wave heights from the NCEI-processed data with the heights reported by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. We found that in the near field different methods of determining the maximum tsunami wave heights could result in large differences due to possible instrumental clipping. We also found that the maximum peak is usually larger than the maximum amplitude (½ peak-to-trough), but the differences for the majority of the stations were <20 cm. For this event, the maximum tsunami wave heights determined by either definition (maximum peak or amplitude) would have validated the forecasts issued by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. Since there is currently only one field in the NCEI historical tsunami database to store the maximum tsunami wave height, NCEI will consider adding an additional field for the maximum peak measurement.
Challenges in Defining Tsunami Wave Heights
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dunbar, Paula; Mungov, George; Sweeney, Aaron; Stroker, Kelly; Arcos, Nicolas
2017-08-01
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics maintain the global tsunami archive consisting of the historical tsunami database, imagery, and raw and processed water level data. The historical tsunami database incorporates, where available, maximum wave heights for each coastal tide gauge and deep-ocean buoy that recorded a tsunami signal. These data are important because they are used for tsunami hazard assessment, model calibration, validation, and forecast and warning. There have been ongoing discussions in the tsunami community about the correct way to measure and report these wave heights. It is important to understand how these measurements might vary depending on how the data were processed and the definition of maximum wave height. On September 16, 2015, an 8.3 M w earthquake located 48 km west of Illapel, Chile generated a tsunami that was observed all over the Pacific region. We processed the time-series water level data for 57 coastal tide gauges that recorded this tsunami and compared the maximum wave heights determined from different definitions. We also compared the maximum wave heights from the NCEI-processed data with the heights reported by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. We found that in the near field different methods of determining the maximum tsunami wave heights could result in large differences due to possible instrumental clipping. We also found that the maximum peak is usually larger than the maximum amplitude (½ peak-to-trough), but the differences for the majority of the stations were <20 cm. For this event, the maximum tsunami wave heights determined by either definition (maximum peak or amplitude) would have validated the forecasts issued by the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. Since there is currently only one field in the NCEI historical tsunami database to store the maximum tsunami wave height for each tide gauge and
Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?
Kim, Jeeyon Janet; Guha-Sapir, Debarati
2012-01-01
Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984–1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response. PMID:22745628
Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?
Kim, Jeeyon Janet; Guha-Sapir, Debarati
2012-01-01
Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984-1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response.
Earthquake Early Warning and Public Policy: Opportunities and Challenges
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goltz, J. D.; Bourque, L.; Tierney, K.; Riopelle, D.; Shoaf, K.; Seligson, H.; Flores, P.
2003-12-01
Development of an earthquake early warning capability and pilot project were objectives of TriNet, a 5-year (1997-2001) FEMA-funded project to develop a state-of-the-art digital seismic network in southern California. In parallel with research to assemble a protocol for rapid analysis of earthquake data and transmission of a signal by TriNet scientists and engineers, the public policy, communication and educational issues inherent in implementation of an earthquake early warning system were addressed by TriNet's outreach component. These studies included: 1) a survey that identified potential users of an earthquake early warning system and how an earthquake early warning might be used in responding to an event, 2) a review of warning systems and communication issues associated with other natural hazards and how lessons learned might be applied to an alerting system for earthquakes, 3) an analysis of organization, management and public policy issues that must be addressed if a broad-based warning system is to be developed and 4) a plan to provide earthquake early warnings to a small number of organizations in southern California as an experimental prototype. These studies provided needed insights into the social and cultural environment in which this new technology will be introduced, an environment with opportunities to enhance our response capabilities but also an environment with significant barriers to overcome to achieve a system that can be sustained and supported. In this presentation we will address the main public policy issues that were subjects of analysis in these studies. They include a discussion of the possible division of functions among organizations likely to be the principle partners in the management of an earthquake early warning system. Drawing on lessons learned from warning systems for other hazards, we will review the potential impacts of false alarms and missed events on warning system credibility, the acceptability of fully automated
Early warning system for aftershocks
Bakun, W.H.; Fischer, F.G.; Jensen, E.G.; VanSchaack, J.
1994-01-01
A prototype early warning system to provide San Francisco and Oakland, California a few tens-of-seconds warning of incoming strong ground shaking from already-occurred M ≧ 3.7 aftershocks of the magnitude 7.1 17 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was operational on 28 October 1989. The prototype system consisted of four components: ground motion sensors in the epicentral area, a central receiver, a radio repeater, and radio receivers. One of the radio receivers was deployed at the California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS) headquarters at the damaged Cypress Street section of the I-880 freeway in Oakland, California on 28 October 1989 and provided about 20 sec of warning before shaking from the M 4.5 Loma Prieta aftershock that occurred on 2 November 1989 at 0550 UTC. In its first 6 months of operation, the system generated triggers for all 12 M > 3.7 aftershocks for which trigger documentation is preserved, did not trigger on any M ≦ 3.6 aftershocks, and produced one false trigger as a result of a now-corrected single point of failure design flaw. Because the prototype system demonstrated that potentially useful warnings of strong shaking from aftershocks are feasible, the USGS has completed a portable early warning system for aftershocks that can be deployed anywhere.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sugimoto, M.
2015-12-01
The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed around 220,000 people and startled the world. North of Chennai (Madras), the Indian plant nearly affected by tsunami in 2004. The local residents really did not get any warning in India. "On December 26, the Madras Atomic Power Station looked like a desolate place with no power, no phones, no water, no security arrangement and no hindrance whatsoever for outsiders to enter any part of the plant," said S.P. Udaykumar of SACCER. Nuclear issues hide behind such big tsunami damaged. Few media reported outside India. As for US, San Francisco Chronicle reported scientists had to rethink about nuclear power plants by the 2004 tsunami in 11th July 2005. Few tsunami scientsts did not pay attention to nucler power plants nearly affected by tsunami in US. On the other hand, US government noticed the Indian plant nearly affected in 2004. US Goverment supported nucler disaster management in several countries. As for Japan, Japanese goverment mainly concentrated reconstrucation in affected areas and tsunami early warning system. I worked in Japanese embassy in Jakarta Indonesia at that time. I did not receive the information about the Indian plant nearly affected by tsunami and US supported nucler safety to the other coutries. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami damaged society and nuclear power stations. The Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident resulted in the largest release of radioactive material since the 1986 Chernobyl accident. Why did not Japanese tsunami scientists learn from warning signs from the nuclear plant in India by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami to the 2011 Fukushima accident? I would like to clarify the reason few tsunami scientist notice this point in my presentation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yeh, H.
2007-12-01
More than 4500 deaths by tsunamis were recorded in the decade of 1990. For example, the 1992 Flores Tsunami in Indonesia took away at least 1712 lives, and more than 2182 people were victimized by the 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami. Such staggering death toll has been totally overshadowed by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that claimed more than 220,000 lives. Unlike hurricanes that are often evaluated by economic losses, death count is the primary measure for tsunami hazard. It is partly because tsunamis kill more people owing to its short lead- time for warning. Although exact death tallies are not available for most of the tsunami events, there exist gender and age discriminations in tsunami casualties. Significant gender difference in the victims of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami was attributed to women's social norms and role behavior, as well as cultural bias toward women's inability to swim. Here we develop a rational casualty model based on humans' limit to withstand the tsunami flows. The application to simple tsunami runup cases demonstrates that biological and physiological disadvantages also make a significant difference in casualty rate. It further demonstrates that the gender and age discriminations in casualties become most pronounced when tsunami is marginally strong and the difference tends to diminish as tsunami strength increases.
Fast Simulation of Tsunamis in Real Time
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fryer, G. J.; Wang, D.; Becker, N. C.; Weinstein, S. A.; Walsh, D.
2011-12-01
The U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers primarily base their wave height forecasts on precomputed tsunami scenarios, such as the SIFT model (Standby Inundation Forecasting of Tsunamis) developed by NOAA's Center for Tsunami Research. In SIFT, tsunami simulations for about 1600 individual earthquake sources, each 100x50 km, define shallow subduction worldwide. These simulations are stored in a database and combined linearly to make up the tsunami from any great earthquake. Precomputation is necessary because the nonlinear shallow-water wave equations are too time consuming to compute during an event. While such scenario-based models are valuable, they tacitly assume all energy in a tsunami comes from thrust at the décollement. The thrust assumption is often violated (e.g., 1933 Sanriku, 2007 Kurils, 2009 Samoa), while a significant number of tsunamigenic earthquakes are completely unrelated to subduction (e.g., 1812 Santa Barbara, 1939 Accra, 1975 Kalapana). Finally, parts of some subduction zones are so poorly defined that precomputations may be of little value (e.g., 1762 Arakan, 1755 Lisbon). For all such sources, a fast means of estimating tsunami size is essential. At the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, we have been using our model RIFT (Real-time Inundation Forecasting of Tsunamis) experimentally for two years. RIFT is fast by design: it solves only the linearized form of the equations. At 4 arc-minutes resolution calculations for the entire Pacific take just a few minutes on an 8-processor Linux box. Part of the rationale for developing RIFT was earthquakes of M 7.8 or smaller, which approach the lower limit of the more complex SIFT's abilities. For such events we currently issue a fixed warning to areas within 1,000 km of the source, which typically means a lot of over-warning. With sources defined by W-phase CMTs, exhaustive comparison with runup data shows that we can reduce the warning area significantly. Even before CMTs are available, we routinely run models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhu, Feng; Hu, Xiaofeng; He, Xiaoyuan; Guo, Rui; Li, Kaiming; Yang, Lu
2017-11-01
In the military field, the performance evaluation of early-warning aircraft deployment or construction is always an important problem needing to be explored. As an effective approach of enterprise management and performance evaluation, Balanced Score Card (BSC) attracts more and more attentions and is studied more and more widely all over the world. It can also bring feasible ideas and technical approaches for studying the issue of the performance evaluation of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft which is the important component in early-warning detection system of systems (SoS). Therefore, the deep explored researches are carried out based on the previously research works. On the basis of the characteristics of space exploration and aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS and the cardinal principle of BSC are analyzed simply, and the performance evaluation framework of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft is given, under this framework, aimed at the evaluation issue of aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS with the cooperation efficiency factors of the early-warning aircraft and other land based radars, the evaluation indexes are further designed and the relative evaluation model is further established, especially the evaluation radar chart being also drawn to obtain the evaluation results from a direct sight angle. Finally, some practical computer simulations are launched to prove the validity and feasibility of the research thinking and technologic approaches which are proposed in the paper.
Operational tsunami modeling with TsunAWI - Examples for Indonesia and Chile
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rakowsky, Natalja; Androsov, Alexey; Harig, Sven; Immerz, Antonia; Fuchs, Annika; Behrens, Jörn; Danilov, Sergey; Hiller, Wolfgang; Schröter, Jens
2014-05-01
The numerical simulation code TsunAWI was developed in the framework of the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS). The numerical simulation of prototypical tsunami scenarios plays a decisive role in the a priory risk assessment for coastal regions and in the early warning process itself. TsunAWI is based on a finite element discretization, employs unstructured grids with high resolution along the coast, and includes inundation. This contribution gives an overview of the model itself and presents two applications. For GITEWS, the existing scenario database covering 528 epicenters / 3450 scenarios from Sumatra to Bali was extended by 187 epicenters / 1100 scenarios in the Eastern Sunda Arc. Furthermore, about 1100 scenarios for the Western Sunda Arc were recomputed on the new model domain covering the whole Indonesian Seas. These computations would not have been feasible in the beginning of the project. The unstructured computational grid contains 7 million nodes and resolves all coastal regions with 150m, some project regions and the surrounding of tide gauges with 50m, and the deep ocean with 12km edge length. While in the Western Sunda Arc, the large islands of Sumatra and Java shield the Northern Indonesian Archipelago, tsunamis in the Eastern Sunda Arc can propagate to the North. The unstructured grid approach allows TsunAWI to easily simulate the complex propagation patterns with the self-interactions and the reflections at the coastal regions of myriads of islands. For the Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service of the Chilean Navy (SHOA), we calculated a small scenario database of 100 scenarios (sources by Universidad de Chile) to provide data for a lightweight decision support system prototype (built by DLR). This work is part of the initiation project "Multi hazard information and early warning system in cooperation with Chile" and aims at sharing our experience from GITEWS with the Chilean partners.
Role of Compressibility on Tsunami Propagation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abdolali, Ali; Kirby, James T.
2017-12-01
In the present paper, we aim to reduce the discrepancies between tsunami arrival times evaluated from tsunami models and real measurements considering the role of ocean compressibility. We perform qualitative studies to reveal the phase speed reduction rate via a modified version of the Mild Slope Equation for Weakly Compressible fluid (MSEWC) proposed by Sammarco et al. (2013). The model is validated against a 3-D computational model. Physical properties of surface gravity waves are studied and compared with those for waves evaluated from an incompressible flow solver over realistic geometry for 2011 Tohoku-oki event, revealing reduction in phase speed.
Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.
2014-12-01
Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.
Tsunami Forecast Progress Five Years After Indonesian Disaster
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Titov, Vasily V.; Bernard, Eddie N.; Weinstein, Stuart A.; Kanoglu, Utku; Synolakis, Costas E.
2010-05-01
Almost five years after the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tragedy, tsunami warnings are finally benefiting from decades of research toward effective model-based forecasts. Since the 2004 tsunami, two seminal advances have been (i) deep-ocean tsunami measurements with tsunameters and (ii) their use in accurately forecasting tsunamis after the tsunami has been generated. Using direct measurements of deep-ocean tsunami heights, assimilated into numerical models for specific locations, greatly improves the real-time forecast accuracy over earthquake-derived magnitude estimates of tsunami impact. Since 2003, this method has been used to forecast tsunamis at specific harbors for different events in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Recent tsunamis illustrated how this technology is being adopted in global tsunami warning operations. The U.S. forecasting system was used by both research and operations to evaluate the tsunami hazard. Tests demonstrated the effectiveness of operational tsunami forecasting using real-time deep-ocean data assimilated into forecast models. Several examples also showed potential of distributed forecast tools. With IOC and USAID funding, NOAA researchers at PMEL developed the Community Model Interface for Tsunami (ComMIT) tool and distributed it through extensive capacity-building sessions in the Indian Ocean. Over hundred scientists have been trained in tsunami inundation mapping, leading to the first generation of inundation models for many Indian Ocean shorelines. These same inundation models can also be used for real-time tsunami forecasts as was demonstrated during several events. Contact Information Vasily V. Titov, Seattle, Washington, USA, 98115
Tsunami Forecasting and Monitoring in New Zealand
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Power, William; Gale, Nora
2011-06-01
New Zealand is exposed to tsunami threats from several sources that vary significantly in their potential impact and travel time. One route for reducing the risk from these tsunami sources is to provide advance warning based on forecasting and monitoring of events in progress. In this paper the National Tsunami Warning System framework, including the responsibilities of key organisations and the procedures that they follow in the event of a tsunami threatening New Zealand, are summarised. A method for forecasting threat-levels based on tsunami models is presented, similar in many respects to that developed for Australia by Allen and Greenslade (Nat Hazards 46:35-52, 2008), and a simple system for easy access to the threat-level forecasts using a clickable pdf file is presented. Once a tsunami enters or initiates within New Zealand waters, its progress and evolution can be monitored in real-time using a newly established network of online tsunami gauge sensors placed at strategic locations around the New Zealand coasts and offshore islands. Information from these gauges can be used to validate and revise forecasts, and assist in making the all-clear decision.
A hazard-independent approach for the standardised multi-channel dissemination of warning messages
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Esbri Palomares, M. A.; Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.
2012-04-01
The tsunami disaster affecting the Indian Ocean region on Christmas 2004 demonstrated very clearly the shortcomings in tsunami detection, public warning processes as well as intergovernmental warning message exchange in the Indian Ocean region. In that regard, early warning systems require that the dissemination of early warning messages has to be executed in way that ensures that the message delivery is timely; the message content is understandable, usable and accurate. To that end, diverse and multiple dissemination channels must be used to increase the chance of the messages reaching all affected persons in a hazard scenario. In addition to this, usage of internationally accepted standards for the warning dissemination such as the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) Distribution Element specified by the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) increase the interoperability among different warning systems enabling thus the concept of system-of-systems proposed by GEOSS. The project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), co-funded by the European Commission under the 6th Framework Programme, aims at strengthening the early warning capacities by building an innovative generation of interoperable tsunami early warning systems based on the above mentioned concepts following a Service-oriented Architecture (SOA) approach. The project focuses on the downstream part of the hazard information processing where customized, user-tailored warning messages and alerts flow from the warning centre to the responsible authorities and/or the public with their different needs and responsibilities. The information logistics services within DEWS generate tailored EDXL-DE/CAP warning messages for each user that must receive the message according to their preferences, e.g., settings for language, interested areas, dissemination channels, etc.. However, the significant difference in the implementation and
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hellman, S. B.; Lisowski, S.; Baker, B.; Hagerty, M.; Lomax, A.; Leifer, J. M.; Thies, D. A.; Schnackenberg, A.; Barrows, J.
2015-12-01
Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) project to update and standardize the earthquake and tsunami monitoring systems currently employed at the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers in Ewa Beach, Hawaii (PTWC) and Palmer, Alaska (NTWC). While this project was funded by NOAA to solve a specific problem, the requirements that the delivered system be both open source and easily maintainable have resulted in the creation of a variety of open source (OS) software packages. The open source software is now complete and this is a presentation of the OS Software that has been funded by NOAA for benefit of the entire seismic community. The design architecture comprises three distinct components: (1) The user interface, (2) The real-time data acquisition and processing system and (3) The scientific algorithm library. The system follows a modular design with loose coupling between components. We now identify the major project constituents. The user interface, CAVE, is written in Java and is compatible with the existing National Weather Service (NWS) open source graphical system AWIPS. The selected real-time seismic acquisition and processing system is open source SeisComp3 (sc3). The seismic library (libseismic) contains numerous custom written and wrapped open source seismic algorithms (e.g., ML/mb/Ms/Mwp, mantle magnitude (Mm), w-phase moment tensor, bodywave moment tensor, finite-fault inversion, array processing). The seismic library is organized in a way (function naming and usage) that will be familiar to users of Matlab. The seismic library extends sc3 so that it can be called by the real-time system, but it can also be driven and tested outside of sc3, for example, by ObsPy or Earthworm. To unify the three principal components we have developed a flexible and lightweight communication layer called SeismoEdex.
Enhanced early warning system impact on nursing practice: A phenomenological study.
Burns, Kathleen A; Reber, Tracey; Theodore, Karen; Welch, Brenda; Roy, Debra; Siedlecki, Sandra L
2018-05-01
To determine how an enhanced early warning system has an impact on nursing practice. Early warning systems score physiologic measures and alert nurses to subtle changes in patient condition. Critics of early warning systems have expressed concern that nurses would rely on a score rather than assessment skills and critical thinking to determine the need for intervention. Enhancing early warning systems with innovative technology is still in its infancy, so the impact of an enhanced early warning system on nursing behaviours or practice has not yet been studied. Phenomenological design. Scripted, semistructured interviews were conducted in September 2015 with 25 medical/surgical nurses who used the enhanced early warning system. Data were analysed using thematic analysis techniques (coding and bracketing). Emerging themes were examined for relationships and a model describing the enhanced early warning system experience was developed. Nurses identified awareness leading to investigation and ease of prioritization as the enhanced early warning system's most important impact on their nursing practice. There was also an impact on organizational culture, with nurses reporting improved communication, increased collaboration, increased accountability and proactive responses to early changes in patient condition. Rather than hinder critical thinking, as many early warning systems' critics claim, nurses in this study found that the enhanced early warning system increased their awareness of changes in a patient's condition, resulting in earlier response and reassessment times. It also had an impact on the organization by improving communication and collaboration and supporting a culture of proactive rather than reactive response to early signs of deterioration. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Defining Tsunami Magnitude as Measure of Potential Impact
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Titov, V. V.; Tang, L.
2016-12-01
The goal of tsunami forecast, as a system for predicting potential impact of a tsunami at coastlines, requires quick estimate of a tsunami magnitude. This goal has been recognized since the beginning of tsunami research. The work of Kajiura, Soloviev, Abe, Murty, and many others discussed several scales for tsunami magnitude based on estimates of tsunami energy. However, difficulties of estimating tsunami energy based on available tsunami measurements at coastal sea-level stations has carried significant uncertainties and has been virtually impossible in real time, before tsunami impacts coastlines. The slow process of tsunami magnitude estimates, including collection of vast amount of available coastal sea-level data from affected coastlines, made it impractical to use any tsunami magnitude scales in tsunami warning operations. Uncertainties of estimates made tsunami magnitudes difficult to use as universal scale for tsunami analysis. Historically, the earthquake magnitude has been used as a proxy of tsunami impact estimates, since real-time seismic data is available of real-time processing and ample amount of seismic data is available for an elaborate post event analysis. This measure of tsunami impact carries significant uncertainties in quantitative tsunami impact estimates, since the relation between the earthquake and generated tsunami energy varies from case to case. In this work, we argue that current tsunami measurement capabilities and real-time modeling tools allow for establishing robust tsunami magnitude that will be useful for tsunami warning as a quick estimate for tsunami impact and for post-event analysis as a universal scale for tsunamis inter-comparison. We present a method for estimating the tsunami magnitude based on tsunami energy and present application of the magnitude analysis for several historical events for inter-comparison with existing methods.
Observing Tsunamis in the Ionosphere Using Ground Based GPS Measurements
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Galvan, D. A.; Komjathy, A.; Song, Y. Tony; Stephens, P.; Hickey, M. P.; Foster, J.
2011-01-01
Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following recent seismic events, including the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011. We observe fluctuations correlated in time, space, and wave properties with this tsunami in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the Tohoku tsunami near the epicenter, at Hawaii, and near the west coast of North America. Disturbance magnitudes are 1-10% of the background TEC value. Observations near the epicenter are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement. The potential exists to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for future early warning systems.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Scott, C.; Gregg, C. E.; Ritchie, L.; Stephen, M.; Farnham, C.; Fraser, S. A.; Gill, D.; Horan, J.; Houghton, B. F.; Johnson, V.; Johnston, D.
2013-12-01
The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) partnered with the National Weather Service (NWS) in early 2000 to create the TsunamiReadyTM Community Recognition program. TsunamiReadyTM, modeled after the older NWS StormReadyTM program, is designed to help cities, towns, counties, universities and other large sites in coastal areas reduce the potential for disastrous tsunami-related consequences. To achieve TsunamiReadyTM recognition, communities must meet certain criteria aimed at better preparing a community for tsunami, including specific actions within the following categories: communications and coordination, tsunami warning reception, local warning dissemination, community preparedness, and administration. Using multidisciplinary research methods and strategies from Public Health; Psychology; Political, Social and Physical Sciences and Evaluation, our research team is working directly with a purposive sample of community stakeholders in collaboration and feedback focus group sessions. Invitation to participate is based on a variety of factors including but not limited to an individual's role as a formal or informal community leader (e.g., in business, government, civic organizations), or their organization or agency affiliation to emergency management and response. Community organizing and qualitative research methods are being used to elicit discussion regarding TsunamiReadyTM requirements and the division of requirements based on some aspect of tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk, such as proximity to active or passive plate margins or subduction zone generated tsunamis versus earthquake-landslide generated tsunamis . The primary aim of this research is to use social science to revise and refine the NWS TsunamiReadyTM Guidelines in an effort to better prepare communities to reduce risk to tsunamis.
Impact of Hellenic Arc Tsunamis on Corsica (France)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gailler, Audrey; Schindelé, F.; Hébert, H.
2016-12-01
In the historical period, the Eastern Mediterranean has been devastated by several tsunamis, the two most damaging were those of AD 365 and AD 1303, generated by great earthquakes of magnitude >8 at the Hellenic plate boundary. Recently, events of 6-7 magnitude have occurred in this region. As the French tsunami warning center has to ensure the warning for the French coastlines, the question has raised the possibility for a major tsunami triggered along the Hellenic arc to impact the French coasts. The focus is on the Corsica coasts especially, to estimate what would be the expected wave heights, and from which threshold of magnitude it would be necessary to put the population under cover. This study shows that a magnitude 8.0 earthquake nucleated along the Hellenic arc could induce in some cases a tsunami that would be observed along the Corsica coasts, and for events of 8.5 magnitude amplitudes exceeding 50 cm can be expected, which would be dangerous in harbors and beach areas especially. The main contribution of these results is the establishment of specific thresholds of magnitude for the tsunami warning along the French coasts, 7.8 for the advisory level (coastal marine threat with harbors and beaches evacuation), and 8.3 for the watch level (inland inundation threat) for tsunamis generated along the Hellenic arc.
Air quality early-warning system for cities in China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, Yunzhen; Yang, Wendong; Wang, Jianzhou
2017-01-01
Air pollution has become a serious issue in many developing countries, especially in China, and could generate adverse effects on human beings. Air quality early-warning systems play an increasingly significant role in regulatory plans that reduce and control emissions of air pollutants and inform the public in advance when harmful air pollution is foreseen. However, building a robust early-warning system that will improve the ability of early-warning is not only a challenge but also a critical issue for the entire society. Relevant research is still poor in China and cannot always satisfy the growing requirements of regulatory planning, despite the issue's significance. Therefore, in this paper, a hybrid air quality early-warning system was successfully developed, composed of forecasting and evaluation. First, a hybrid forecasting model was proposed as an important part of this system based on the theory of "decomposition and ensemble" and combined with the advanced data processing technique, support vector machine, the latest bio-inspired optimization algorithm and the leave-one-out strategy for deciding weights. Afterwards, to intensify the research, fuzzy evaluation was performed, which also plays an indispensable role in the early-warning system. The forecasting model and fuzzy evaluation approaches are complementary. Case studies using daily air pollution concentrations of six air pollutants from three cities in China (i.e., Taiyuan, Harbin and Chongqing) are used as examples to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. Experimental results demonstrate that both the accuracy and the effectiveness of the developed system are greatly superior for air quality early warning. Furthermore, the application of forecasting and evaluation enables the informative and effective quantification of future air quality, offering a significant advantage, and can be employed to develop rapid air quality early-warning systems.
A Multi-Disciplinary Approach to Tsunami Disaster Prevention in Java, Indonesia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Horns, D. M.; Hall, S.; Harris, R. A.
2016-12-01
The island of Java in Indonesia is the most densely populated island on earth, and is situated within one of the most tectonically active regions on the planet. Deadly tsunamis struck Java in 1994 and 2006. We conducted an assessment of tsunami hazards on the south coast of Java using a team of geologists, public health professionals, and disaster education specialists. The social science component included tsunami awareness surveys, education in communities and schools, evacuation drills, and evaluation. We found that the evacuation routes were generally appropriate for the local hazard, and that most people were aware of the routes and knew how to use them. However, functional tsunami warning systems were lacking in most areas and knowledge of natural warning signs was incomplete. We found that while knowledge of when to evacuate improved after our educational lesson, some incorrect beliefs persisted (e.g. misconceptions about types of earthquakes able to generate tsunamis and how far inland tsunamis can reach). There was a general over-reliance on government to alert when evacuation is needed as well as reluctance on the part of local leaders to take initiative to sound tsunami alerts. Many people on earth who are at risk of tsunamis live in areas where the government lacks resources to maintain a functional tsunami warning system. The best hope for protecting those people is direct education working within the local cultural belief system. Further collaboration is needed with government agencies to design consistent and repeated messages challenging misperceptions about when to evacuate and to encourage individuals to take personal responsibility based on natural warning signs.
Tsunami Data and Scientific Data Diplomacy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arcos, N. P.; Dunbar, P. K.; Gusiakov, V. K.; Kong, L. S. L.; Aliaga, B.; Yamamoto, M.; Stroker, K. J.
2016-12-01
Free and open access to data and information fosters scientific progress and can build bridges between nations even when political relationships are strained. Data and information held by one stakeholder may be vital for promoting research of another. As an emerging field of inquiry, data diplomacy explores how data-sharing helps create and support positive relationships between countries to enable the use of data for societal and humanitarian benefit. Tsunami has arguably been the only natural hazard that has been addressed so effectively at an international scale and illustrates the success of scientific data diplomacy. Tsunami mitigation requires international scientific cooperation in both tsunami science and technology development. This requires not only international agreements, but working-level relationships between scientists from countries that may have different political and economic policies. For example, following the Pacific wide tsunami of 1960 that killed two thousand people in Chile and then, up to a day later, hundreds in Hawaii, Japan, and the Philippines; delegates from twelve countries met to discuss and draft the requirements for an international tsunami warning system. The Pacific Tsunami Warning System led to the development of local, regional, and global tsunami databases and catalogs. For example, scientists at NOAA/NCEI and the Tsunami Laboratory/Russian Academy of Sciences have collaborated on their tsunami catalogs that are now routinely accessed by scientists and the public around the world. These data support decision-making during tsunami events, are used in developing inundation and evacuation maps, and hazard assessments. This presentation will include additional examples of agreements for data-sharing between countries, as well as challenges in standardization and consistency among the tsunami research community. Tsunami data and scientific data diplomacy have ultimately improved understanding of tsunami and associated impacts.
Tsunami Hazards - A National Threat
,
2006-01-01
In December 2004, when a tsunami killed more than 200,000 people in 11 countries around the Indian Ocean, the United States was reminded of its own tsunami risks. In fact, devastating tsunamis have struck North America before and are sure to strike again. Especially vulnerable are the five Pacific States--Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California--and the U.S. Caribbean islands. In the wake of the Indian Ocean disaster, the United States is redoubling its efforts to assess the Nation's tsunami hazards, provide tsunami education, and improve its system for tsunami warning. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is helping to meet these needs, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and with coastal States and counties.
Detecting Tsunami Genesis and Scales Directly from Coastal GPS Stations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Song, Y. Tony
2013-04-01
Different from the conventional approach to tsunami warnings that rely on earthquake magnitude estimates, we have found that coastal GPS stations are able to detect continental slope displacements of faulting due to big earthquakes, and that the detected seafloor displacements are able to determine tsunami source energy and scales instantaneously. This method has successfully replicated several historical tsunamis caused by the 2004 Sumatra earthquake, the 2005 Nias earthquake, the 2010 Chilean earthquake, and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, respectively, and has been compared favorably with the conventional seismic solutions that usually take hours or days to get through inverting seismographs (reference listed). Because many coastal GPS stations are already in operation for measuring ground motions in real time as often as once every few seconds, this study suggests a practical way of identifying tsunamigenic earthquakes for early warnings and reducing false alarms. Reference Song, Y. T., 2007: Detecting tsunami genesis and scales directly from coastal GPS stations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L19602, doi:10.1029/2007GL031681. Song, Y. T., L.-L. Fu, V. Zlotnicki, C. Ji, V. Hjorleifsdottir, C.K. Shum, and Y. Yi, 2008: The role of horizontal impulses of the faulting continental slope in generating the 26 December 2004 Tsunami, Ocean Modelling, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2007.10.007. Song, Y. T. and S.C. Han, 2011: Satellite observations defying the long-held tsunami genesis theory, D.L. Tang (ed.), Remote Sensing of the Changing Oceans, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-16541-2, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Song, Y. T., I. Fukumori, C. K. Shum, and Y. Yi, 2012: Merging tsunamis of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake detected over the open ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2011GL050767 (Nature Highlights, March 8, 2012).
The seismic project of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program
Oppenheimer, D.H.; Bittenbinder, A.N.; Bogaert, B.M.; Buland, R.P.; Dietz, L.D.; Hansen, R.A.; Malone, S.D.; McCreery, C.S.; Sokolowski, T.J.; Whitmore, P.M.; Weaver, C.S.
2005-01-01
In 1997, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the five western States of Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington joined in a partnership called the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to enhance the quality and quantity of seismic data provided to the NOAA tsunami warning centers in Alaska and Hawaii. The NTHMP funded a seismic project that now provides the warning centers with real-time seismic data over dedicated communication links and the Internet from regional seismic networks monitoring earthquakes in the five western states, the U.S. National Seismic Network in Colorado, and from domestic and global seismic stations operated by other agencies. The goal of the project is to reduce the time needed to issue a tsunami warning by providing the warning centers with high-dynamic range, broadband waveforms in near real time. An additional goal is to reduce the likelihood of issuing false tsunami warnings by rapidly providing to the warning centers parametric information on earthquakes that could indicate their tsunamigenic potential, such as hypocenters, magnitudes, moment tensors, and shake distribution maps. New or upgraded field instrumentation was installed over a 5-year period at 53 seismic stations in the five western states. Data from these instruments has been integrated into the seismic network utilizing Earthworm software. This network has significantly reduced the time needed to respond to teleseismic and regional earthquakes. Notably, the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center responded to the 28 February 2001 Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake beneath Olympia, Washington within 2 minutes compared to an average response time of over 10 minutes for the previous 18 years. ?? Springer 2005.
Impact of earthquake-induced tsunamis on public health
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mavroulis, Spyridon; Mavrouli, Maria; Lekkas, Efthymios; Tsakris, Athanassios
2017-04-01
measures, (2) lack of awareness and prior warning resulting in little time for preparedness or evacuation, (3) severely injured tsunami survivors exposed to high pathogen densities in soil and water, (4) destruction of critical infrastructures including health care systems causing delayed management and treatment of severe cases, (5) aggravating post-tsunami weather conditions, (6) formation of extensive potential vector breeding sites due to flooding, (7) overcrowded conditions in evacuation shelters characterized by small places, inadequate air ventilation, poor hand hygiene and dysfunction of the public health system, (8) low vaccination coverage, (9) poor personal hygiene, (10) minimum precautions against food contamination and (11) dependency of young children and weaker physical strength and resilience of elders needing assistance with daily activities. In conclusion, our study referred to potential ID following tsunamis induced after great earthquakes during the last 12 years. The establishment of strong disaster preparedness plans characterized by adequate environmental planning, resistant infrastructures and resilient health facilities is significant for the early detection, surveillance and control of emerging ID. Moreover, the establishment and the unceasing function of reliable early warning systems may help mitigate tsunami-related impact on public health.
Coastal Warning Display Program
! Boating Safety Beach Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's National Weather Service Marine Forecasts COASTAL WARNING DISPLAY PROGRAM Marine COASTAL WARNING DISPLAY PROGRAM As of February 15, 1989, the National Weather Service retired its Coastal
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Therriault, Susan Bowles; Heppen, Jessica; O'Cummings, Mindee; Fryer, Lindsay; Johnson, Amy
2010-01-01
This Early Warning System (EWS) Implementation Guide is a supporting document for schools and districts that are implementing the National High School Center's Early Warning System (EWS) Tool v2.0. Developed by the National High School Center at the American Institutes for Research (AIR), the guide and tool support the establishment and…
Using GPS to Detect Imminent Tsunamis
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Song, Y. Tony
2009-01-01
A promising method of detecting imminent tsunamis and estimating their destructive potential involves the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) data in addition to seismic data. Application of the method is expected to increase the reliability of global tsunami-warning systems, making it possible to save lives while reducing the incidence of false alarms. Tsunamis kill people every year. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed about 230,000 people. The magnitude of an earthquake is not always a reliable indication of the destructive potential of a tsunami. The 2004 Indian Ocean quake generated a huge tsunami, while the 2005 Nias (Indonesia) quake did not, even though both were initially estimated to be of the similar magnitude. Between 2005 and 2007, five false tsunami alarms were issued worldwide. Such alarms result in negative societal and economic effects. GPS stations can detect ground motions of earthquakes in real time, as frequently as every few seconds. In the present method, the epicenter of an earthquake is located by use of data from seismometers, then data from coastal GPS stations near the epicenter are used to infer sea-floor displacements that precede a tsunami. The displacement data are used in conjunction with local topographical data and an advanced theory to quantify the destructive potential of a tsunami on a new tsunami scale, based on the GPS-derived tsunami energy, much like the Richter Scale used for earthquakes. An important element of the derivation of the advanced theory was recognition that horizontal sea-floor motions contribute much more to generation of tsunamis than previously believed. The method produces a reliable estimate of the destructive potential of a tsunami within minutes typically, well before the tsunami reaches coastal areas. The viability of the method was demonstrated in computational tests in which the method yielded accurate representations of three historical tsunamis for which well-documented ground
Tsunami Preparedness in Washington (video)
Loeffler, Kurt; Gesell, Justine
2010-01-01
Tsunamis are a constant threat to the coasts of our world. Although tsunamis are infrequent along the West coast of the United States, it is possible and necessary to prepare for potential tsunami hazards to minimize loss of life and property. Community awareness programs are important, as they strive to create an informed society by providing education and training. This video about tsunami preparedness in Washington distinguishes between a local tsunami and a distant event and focus on the specific needs of this region. It offers guidelines for correct tsunami response and community preparedness from local emergency managers, first-responders, and leading experts on tsunami hazards and warnings, who have been working on ways of making the tsunami affected regions safer for the people and communities on a long-term basis. This video was produced by the US Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with Washington Emergency Management Division (EMD) and with funding by the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Armigliato, Alberto; Tinti, Stefano; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Ausilia Paparo, Maria; Zaniboni, Filippo
2016-04-01
first case we will try at least to reproduce the observed signal, otherwise we will try to understand whether the non-tsunamigenic nature of the event is confirmed by the tsunami simulations. The second problem is more related to tsunami early warning issues, in particular with the performance of the Tsunami Decision Matrix for the Mediterranean, presently adopted for example by the candidate Tsunami Service Providers at NOA (Greece) and INGV (Italy). We will briefly discuss whether the present form of the matrix, which does not include any information on focal mechanism, is well suited to a peculiar event like the November 17 earthquake, which was of strike-slip nature and had a magnitude lying just at the border between two distinct classes of tsunami potential forecast. This study is funded in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - "Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe", Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3), and of the Italian Flagship Project RITMARE ("La Ricerca ITaliana per il MARE").
Geodetic Finite-Fault-based Earthquake Early Warning Performance for Great Earthquakes Worldwide
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ruhl, C. J.; Melgar, D.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.
2017-12-01
GNSS-based earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms estimate fault-finiteness and unsaturated moment magnitude for the largest, most damaging earthquakes. Because large events are infrequent, algorithms are not regularly exercised and insufficiently tested on few available datasets. The Geodetic Alarm System (G-larmS) is a GNSS-based finite-fault algorithm developed as part of the ShakeAlert EEW system in the western US. Performance evaluations using synthetic earthquakes offshore Cascadia showed that G-larmS satisfactorily recovers magnitude and fault length, providing useful alerts 30-40 s after origin time and timely warnings of ground motion for onshore urban areas. An end-to-end test of the ShakeAlert system demonstrated the need for GNSS data to accurately estimate ground motions in real-time. We replay real data from several subduction-zone earthquakes worldwide to demonstrate the value of GNSS-based EEW for the largest, most damaging events. We compare predicted ground acceleration (PGA) from first-alert-solutions with those recorded in major urban areas. In addition, where applicable, we compare observed tsunami heights to those predicted from the G-larmS solutions. We show that finite-fault inversion based on GNSS-data is essential to achieving the goals of EEW.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grilli, S. T.; Guérin, C. A.; Grosdidier, S.
2014-12-01
Where coastal tsunami hazard is governed by near-field sources, Submarine Mass Failures (SMFs) or earthquakes, tsunami propagation times may be too small for a detection based on deep or shallow water buoys. To offer sufficient warning time, it has been proposed by others to implement early warning systems relying on High Frequency Radar (HFR) remote sensing, that has a dense spatial coverage far offshore. A new HFR, referred to as STRADIVARIUS, is being deployed by Diginext Inc. (in Fall 2014), to cover the "Golfe du Lion" (GDL) in the Western Mediterranean Sea. This radar uses a proprietary phase coding technology that allows detection up to 300 km, in a bistatic configuration (for which radar and antennas are separated by about 100 km). Although the primary purpose of the radar is vessel detection in relation to homeland security, the 4.5 MHz HFR will provide a strong backscattered signal for ocean surface waves at the so-called Bragg frequency (here, wavelength of 30 m). The current caused by an arriving tsunami will shift the Bragg frequency, by a value proportional to the current magnitude (projected on the local radar ray direction), which can be easily obtained from the Doppler spectrum of the HFR signal. Using state of the art tsunami generation and propagation models, we modeled tsunami case studies in the western Mediterranean basin (both seismic and SMFs) and simulated the HFR backscattered signal that would be detected for the entire GDL and beyond. Based on simulated HFR signal, we developed two types of tsunami detection algorithms: (i) one based on standard Doppler spectra, for which we found that to be detectable within the environmental and background current noises, the Doppler shift requires tsunami currents to be at least 10-15 cm/s, which typically only occurs on the continental shelf in fairly shallow water; (ii) to allow earlier detection, a second algorithm computes correlations of the HFR signals at two distant locations, shifted in time
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grilli, Stéphan; Guérin, Charles-Antoine; Grosdidier, Samuel
2015-04-01
Where coastal tsunami hazard is governed by near-field sources, Submarine Mass Failures (SMFs) or earthquakes, tsunami propagation times may be too small for a detection based on deep or shallow water buoys. To offer sufficient warning time, it has been proposed by others to implement early warning systems relying on High Frequency Surface Wave Radar (HFSWR) remote sensing, that has a dense spatial coverage far offshore. A new HFSWR, referred to as STRADIVARIUS, has been recently deployed by Diginext Inc. to cover the "Golfe du Lion" (GDL) in the Western Mediterranean Sea. This radar, which operates at 4.5 MHz, uses a proprietary phase coding technology that allows detection up to 300 km in a bistatic configuration (with a baseline of about 100 km). Although the primary purpose of the radar is vessel detection in relation to homeland security, it can also be used for ocean current monitoring. The current caused by an arriving tsunami will shift the Bragg frequency by a value proportional to a component of its velocity, which can be easily obtained from the Doppler spectrum of the HFSWR signal. Using state of the art tsunami generation and propagation models, we modeled tsunami case studies in the western Mediterranean basin (both seismic and SMFs) and simulated the HFSWR backscattered signal that would be detected for the entire GDL and beyond. Based on simulated HFSWR signal, we developed two types of tsunami detection algorithms: (i) one based on standard Doppler spectra, for which we found that to be detectable within the environmental and background current noises, the Doppler shift requires tsunami currents to be at least 10-15 cm/s, which typically only occurs on the continental shelf in fairly shallow water; (ii) to allow earlier detection, a second algorithm computes correlations of the HFSWR signals at two distant locations, shifted in time by the tsunami propagation time between these locations (easily computed based on bathymetry). We found that this
The November 15, 2006 Kuril Islands-Generated Tsunami in Crescent City, California
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dengler, L.; Uslu, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Yim, S. C.; Kelly, A.
2009-02-01
On November 15, 2006, Crescent City in Del Norte County, California was hit by a tsunami generated by a M w 8.3 earthquake in the central Kuril Islands. Strong currents that persisted over an eight-hour period damaged floating docks and several boats and caused an estimated 9.2 million in losses. Initial tsunami alert bulletins issued by the West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska were cancelled about three and a half hours after the earthquake, nearly five hours before the first surges reached Crescent City. The largest amplitude wave, 1.76-meter peak to trough, was the sixth cycle and arrived over two hours after the first wave. Strong currents estimated at over 10 knots, damaged or destroyed three docks and caused cracks in most of the remaining docks. As a result of the November 15 event, WCATWC changed the definition of Advisory from a region-wide alert bulletin meaning that a potential tsunami is 6 hours or further away to a localized alert that tsunami water heights may approach warning- level thresholds in specific, vulnerable locations like Crescent City. On January 13, 2007 a similar Kuril event occurred and hourly conferences between the warning center and regional weather forecasts were held with a considerable improvement in the flow of information to local coastal jurisdictions. The event highlighted the vulnerability of harbors from a relatively modest tsunami and underscored the need to improve public education regarding the duration of the tsunami hazards, improve dialog between tsunami warning centers and local jurisdictions, and better understand the currents produced by tsunamis in harbors.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tinti, S.; Tonini, R.
2013-07-01
Nowadays numerical models are a powerful tool in tsunami research since they can be used (i) to reconstruct modern and historical events, (ii) to cast new light on tsunami sources by inverting tsunami data and observations, (iii) to build scenarios in the frame of tsunami mitigation plans, and (iv) to produce forecasts of tsunami impact and inundation in systems of early warning. In parallel with the general recognition of the importance of numerical tsunami simulations, the demand has grown for reliable tsunami codes, validated through tests agreed upon by the tsunami community. This paper presents the tsunami code UBO-TSUFD that has been developed at the University of Bologna, Italy, and that solves the non-linear shallow water (NSW) equations in a Cartesian frame, with inclusion of bottom friction and exclusion of the Coriolis force, by means of a leapfrog (LF) finite-difference scheme on a staggered grid and that accounts for moving boundaries to compute sea inundation and withdrawal at the coast. Results of UBO-TSUFD applied to four classical benchmark problems are shown: two benchmarks are based on analytical solutions, one on a plane wave propagating on a flat channel with a constant slope beach; and one on a laboratory experiment. The code is proven to perform very satisfactorily since it reproduces quite well the benchmark theoretical and experimental data. Further, the code is applied to a realistic tsunami case: a scenario of a tsunami threatening the coasts of eastern Sicily, Italy, is defined and discussed based on the historical tsunami of 11 January 1693, i.e. one of the most severe events in the Italian history.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mas, E.; Takagi, H.; Adriano, B.; Hayashi, S.; Koshimura, S.
2014-12-01
The 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami reminded that nature can exceed structural countermeasures like seawalls, breakwaters or tsunami gates. In such situations it is a challenging task for people to find nearby haven. This event, as many others before, confirmed the importance of early evacuation, tsunami awareness and the need for developing much more resilient communities with effective evacuation plans. To support reconstruction activities and efforts on developing resilient communities in areas at risk, tsunami evacuation simulation can be applied to tsunami mitigation and evacuation planning. In this study, using the compiled information related to the evacuation behavior at Yuriage in Natori during the 2011 tsunami, we simulated the evacuation process and explored the reasons for the large number of fatalities in the area. It was found that residents did evacuate to nearby shelter areas, however after the tsunami warning was increased some evacuees decided to conduct a second step evacuation to a far inland shelter. Simulation results show the consequences of such decision and the outcomes when a second evacuation would not have been performed. The actual reported number of fatalities in the event and the results from simulation are compared to verify the model. The case study shows the contribution of tsunami evacuation models as tools to be applied for the analysis of evacuees' decisions and the related outcomes. In addition, future evacuation plans and activities for reconstruction process and urban planning can be supported by the results provided from this kind of tsunami evacuation models.
Lessons Learned and Unlearned from the 2004 Great Sumatran Tsunami.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Synolakis, C.; Kanoglu, U.
2014-12-01
Huppert & Sparks (2006 Phil Trans Math Phys Eng Sci) wrote It is likely that in the future, we will experience several disasters per year that kill more than 10,000 people. The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster alone resulted in more than 20,000 casualties. Synolakis & Bernard (2006 Phil Trans Math Phys Eng Sci) concluded that Before the next Sumatra-type tsunami strikes, we must resolve to create a world that can coexist with the tsunami hazard. The 2011 Japan tsunami dramatically showed that we are not there yet. Despite substantial advances after the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami, substantial challenges remain for improving tsunami hazard mitigation. If the tsunami community appeared at first perplexed in the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami, it was not due to the failure of recognized hydrodynamic paradigms, much as certain geophysical ones and scaling laws failed, but at the worst surprise, the lack of preparedness and education. Synolakis et al. (2008 Pure Appl Geophys) presented standards for tsunami modeling; for both warnings and inundation maps (IMs). Although at least one forecasting methodology has gone through extensive testing, and is now officially in use by the warning centers (WCs), standards need urgently to be formalized for warnings. In Europe, several WCs have been established, but none has yet to issue an operational warning for a hazardous event. If it happens, there might be confusion with possibly contradictory/competing warnings. Never again should there be a repeat of the TEPCO analysis for the safety of the Fukushima NPP. This was primarily due to lacks of familiarity with the context of numerical predictions and experience with real tsunami. The accident was the result of a cascade of stupid errors, almost impossible to ignore by anyone in the field (Synolakis, 26.03.2011 The New York Times). Current practices in tsunami studies for US NPPs and for IMs do not provide us with optimism that the Fukushima lessons have been absorbed and that
Study on Early-Warning System of Cotton Production in Hebei Province
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Runqing; Ma, Teng
Cotton production plays an important role in Hebei. It straightly influences cotton farmers’ life, agricultural production and national economic development as well. In recent years, due to cotton production frequently fluctuating, two situations, “difficult selling cotton” and “difficult buying cotton” have alternately occurred, and brought disadvantages to producers, businesses and national finance. Therefore, it is very crucial to research the early warning of cotton production for solving the problem of cotton production’s frequent fluctuation and ensuring the cotton industry’s sustainable development. This paper founds a signal lamp model of early warning through employing time-difference correlation analysis method to select early-warning indicators and statistical analysis method associated with empirical analysis to determine early-warning limits. Finally, it not only obtained warning conditions of cotton production from 1993 to 2006 and forecast 2007’s condition, but also put forward corresponding countermeasures to prevent cotton production from fluctuating. Furthermore, an early-warning software of cotton production is completed through computer programming on the basis of the early warning model above.
Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Clear Air Force Station, ...
Ballistic Missile Early Warning System - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Loevenbruck, A.; Quentel, E.; Hebert, H.
2011-12-01
The catastrophic 2004 tsunami drew the international community's attention to tsunami risk in all basins where tsunamis occurred but no warning system exists. Consequently, under the coordination of UNESCO, France decided to create a regional center, called CENALT, for the north-east Atlantic and the western Mediterranean. This warning system, which should be operational by 2012, is set up by the CEA in collaboration with the SHOM and the CNRS. The French authorities are in charge of the top-down alert system including the local alert dissemination. In order to prepare the appropriate means and measures, they initiated the ALDES (Alerte Descendante) project to which the CEA also contributes. It aims at examining along the French Mediterranean coast the tsunami risk related to earthquakes and landslides. In addition to the evaluation at regional scale, it includes the detailed studies of 3 selected sites; the local alert system will be designed for one of them. In this project, our main task at CEA consists in assessing tsunami hazard related to seismic sources using numerical modeling. Tsunamis have already affected the west Mediterranean coast; however past events are too few and poorly documented to provide a suitable database. Thus, a synthesis of earthquakes representative of the tsunamigenic seismic activity and prone to induce the largest impact to the French coast is performed based on historical data, seismotectonics and first order models. The North Africa Margin, the Ligurian and the South Tyrrhenian Seas are considered as the main tsunamigenic zones. In order to forecast the most important plausible effects, the magnitudes are estimated by enhancing to some extent the largest known values. Our hazard estimation is based on the simulation of the induced tsunamis scenarios performed with the CEA code. Models of propagation in the basin and off the French coast allow evaluating the potential threat at regional scale in terms of sources location and
Tsunami Preparedness in California (videos)
Filmed and edited by: Loeffler, Kurt; Gesell, Justine
2010-01-01
Tsunamis are a constant threat to the coasts of our world. Although tsunamis are infrequent along the West coast of the United States, it is possible and necessary to prepare for potential tsunami hazards to minimize loss of life and property. Community awareness programs are important, as they strive to create an informed society by providing education and training. These videos about tsunami preparedness in California distinguish between a local tsunami and a distant event and focus on the specific needs of each region. They offer guidelines for correct tsunami response and community preparedness from local emergency managers, first-responders, and leading experts on tsunami hazards and warnings, who have been working on ways of making the tsunami affected regions safer for the people and communities on a long-term basis. These videos were produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA) and Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E).
Tsunami Preparedness in Oregon (video)
Filmed and edited by: Loeffler, Kurt; Gesell, Justine
2010-01-01
Tsunamis are a constant threat to the coasts of our world. Although tsunamis are infrequent along the West coast of the United States, it is possible and necessary to prepare for potential tsunami hazards to minimize loss of life and property. Community awareness programs are important, as they strive to create an informed society by providing education and training. This video about tsunami preparedness in Oregon distinguishes between a local tsunami and a distant event and focus on the specific needs of this region. It offers guidelines for correct tsunami response and community preparedness from local emergency managers, first-responders, and leading experts on tsunami hazards and warnings, who have been working on ways of making the tsunami affected regions safer for the people and communities on a long-term basis. This video was produced by the US Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI).
Sea level hazards: Altimetric monitoring of tsunamis and sea level rise
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hamlington, Benjamin Dillon
Whether on the short timescale of an impending tsunami or the much longer timescale of climate change-driven sea level rise, the threat stemming from rising and inundating ocean waters is a great concern to coastal populations. Timely and accurate observations of potentially dangerous changes in sea level are vital in determining the precautionary steps that need to be taken in order to protect coastal communities. While instruments from the past have provided in situ measurements of sea level at specific locations across the globe, satellites can be used to provide improved spatial and temporal sampling of the ocean in addition to producing more accurate measurements. Since 1993, satellite altimetry has provided accurate measurements of sea surface height (SSH) with near-global coverage. Not only have these measurements led to the first definitive estimates of global mean sea level rise, satellite altimetry observations have also been used to detect tsunami waves in the open ocean where wave amplitudes are relatively small, a vital step in providing early warning to those potentially affected by the impending tsunami. The use of satellite altimetry to monitor two specific sea level hazards is examined in this thesis. The first section will focus on the detection of tsunamis in the open ocean for the purpose of providing early warning to coastal inhabitants. The second section will focus on estimating secular trends using satellite altimetry data with the hope of improving our understanding of future sea level change. Results presented here will show the utility of satellite altimetry for sea level monitoring and will lay the foundation for further advancement in the detection of the two sea level hazards considered.
Rapid kinematic finite source inversion for Tsunamic Early Warning using high rate GNSS data
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, K.; Liu, Z.; Song, Y. T.
2017-12-01
Recently, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) has been used for rapid earthquake source inversion towards tsunami early warning. In practice, two approaches, i.e., static finite source inversion based on permanent co-seismic offsets and kinematic finite source inversion using high-rate (>= 1 Hz) co-seismic displacement waveforms, are often employed to fulfill the task. The static inversion is relatively easy to be implemented and does not require additional constraints on rupture velocity, duration, and temporal variation. However, since most GNSS receivers are deployed onshore locating on one side of the subduction fault, there is very limited resolution on near-trench fault slip using GNSS in static finite source inversion. On the other hand, the high-rate GNSS displacement waveforms, which contain the timing information of earthquake rupture explicitly and static offsets implicitly, have the potential to improve near-trench resolution by reconciling with the depth-dependent megathrust rupture behaviors. In this contribution, we assess the performance of rapid kinematic finite source inversion using high-rate GNSS by three selected historical tsunamigenic cases: the 2010 Mentawai, 2011 Tohoku and 2015 Illapel events. With respect to the 2010 Mentawai case, it is a typical tsunami earthquake with most slip concentrating near the trench. The static inversion has little resolution there and incorrectly puts slip at greater depth (>10km). In contrast, the recorded GNSS displacement waveforms are deficit in high-frequency energy, the kinematic source inversion recovers a shallow slip patch (depth less than 6 km) and tsunami runups are predicted quite reasonably. For the other two events, slip from kinematic and static inversion show similar characteristics and comparable tsunami scenarios, which may be related to dense GNSS network and behavior of the rupture. Acknowledging the complexity of kinematic source inversion in real-time, we adopt the back
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miller, K. M.; Wilson, R. I.; Goltz, J.; Fenton, J.; Long, K.; Dengler, L.; Rosinski, A.; California Tsunami Program
2011-12-01
This poster will present an overview of successes and challenges observed by the authors during this major tsunami response event. The Tohoku, Japan tsunami was the most costly to affect California since the 1964 Alaskan earthquake and ensuing tsunami. The Tohoku tsunami caused at least $50 million in damage to public facilities in harbors and marinas along the coast of California, and resulted in one fatality. It was generated by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake which occurred at 9:46PM PST on Thursday, March 10, 2011 in the sea off northern Japan. The tsunami was recorded at tide gages monitored by the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC), which projected tsunami surges would reach California in approximately 10 hours. At 12:51AM on March 11, 2011, based on forecasted tsunami amplitudes, the WCATWC placed the California coast north of Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) in a Tsunami Warning, and the coast south of Point Conception to the Mexican border in a Tsunami Advisory. The California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA) activated two Regional Emergency Operation Centers (REOCs) and the State Operation Center (SOC). The California Geological Survey (CGS) deployed a field team which collected data before, during and after the event through an information clearinghouse. Conference calls were conducted hourly between the WCATWC and State Warning Center, as well as with emergency managers in the 20 coastal counties. Coordination focused on local response measures, public information messaging, assistance needs, evacuations, emergency shelters, damage, and recovery issues. In the early morning hours, some communities in low lying areas recommended evacuation for their citizens, and the fishing fleet at Crescent City evacuated to sea. The greatest damage occurred in the harbors of Crescent City and Santa Cruz. As with any emergency, there were lessons learned and important successes in managing this event. Forecasts by the WCATWC were highly accurate
Alaskan Air Defense and Early Warning Systems Clear Air ...
Alaskan Air Defense and Early Warning Systems - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK
New Coastal Tsunami Gauges: Application at Augustine Volcano, Cook Inlet, Alaska
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burgy, M.; Bolton, D. K.
2006-12-01
Recent eruptive activity at Augustine Volcano and its associated tsunami threat to lower Cook Inlet pointed out the need for a quickly deployable tsunami detector which could be installed on Augustine Island's coast. The detector's purpose would be to verify tsunami generation by direct observation of the wave at the source to support tsunami warning decisions along populated coastlines. To fill this need the Tsunami Mobile Alert Real-Time (TSMART) system was developed at NOAA's West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center with support from the University of Alaska Tsunami Warning and Environmental Observatory for Alaska program (TWEAK) and the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO). The TSMART system consists of a pressure sensor installed as near as possible to the low tide line. The sensor is enclosed in a water-tight hypalon bag filled with propylene-glycol to prevent silt damage to the sensor and freezing. The bag is enclosed in a perforated, strong plastic pipe about 16 inches long and 8 inches in diameter enclosed at both ends for protection. The sensor is cabled to a data logger/radio/power station up to 300 feet distant. Data are transmitted to a base station and made available to the warning center in real-time through the internet. This data telemetry system can be incorporated within existing AVO and Plate Boundary Observatory networks which makes it ideal for volcano-tsunami monitoring. A TSMART network can be utilized anywhere in the world within 120 miles of an internet connection. At Augustine, two test stations were installed on the east side of the island in August 2006. The sensors were located very near the low tide limit and covered with rock, and the cable was buried to the data logger station which was located well above high tide mark. Data logger, radio, battery and other electronics are housed in an enclosure mounted to a pole which also supports an antenna and solar panel. Radio signal is transmitted to a repeater station higher up on the island
Real-time forecasting of the April 11, 2012 Sumatra tsunami
Wang, Dailin; Becker, Nathan C.; Walsh, David; Fryer, Gerard J.; Weinstein, Stuart A.; McCreery, Charles S.; ,
2012-01-01
The April 11, 2012, magnitude 8.6 earthquake off the northern coast of Sumatra generated a tsunami that was recorded at sea-level stations as far as 4800 km from the epicenter and at four ocean bottom pressure sensors (DARTs) in the Indian Ocean. The governments of India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Maldives issued tsunami warnings for their coastlines. The United States' Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) issued an Indian Ocean-wide Tsunami Watch Bulletin in its role as an Interim Service Provider for the region. Using an experimental real-time tsunami forecast model (RIFT), PTWC produced a series of tsunami forecasts during the event that were based on rapidly derived earthquake parameters, including initial location and Mwp magnitude estimates and the W-phase centroid moment tensor solutions (W-phase CMTs) obtained at PTWC and at the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). We discuss the real-time forecast methodology and how successive, real-time tsunami forecasts using the latest W-phase CMT solutions improved the accuracy of the forecast.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Julius, Musa, Admiral; Pribadi, Sugeng; Muzli, Muzli
2018-03-01
Sulawesi, one of the biggest island in Indonesia, located on the convergence of two macro plate that is Eurasia and Pacific. NOAA and Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory show more than 20 tsunami data recorded in Sulawesi since 1820. Based on this data, determination of correlation between tsunami and earthquake parameter need to be done to proved all event in the past. Complete data of magnitudes, fault sizes and tsunami heights on this study sourced from NOAA and Novosibirsk Tsunami database, completed with Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) catalog. This study aims to find correlation between moment magnitude, fault size and tsunami height by simple regression. The step of this research are data collecting, processing, and regression analysis. Result shows moment magnitude, fault size and tsunami heights strongly correlated. This analysis is enough to proved the accuracy of historical tsunami database in Sulawesi on NOAA, Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory and PTWC.
Disaster risk reduction policies and regulations in Aceh after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Syamsidik; Rusydy, I.; Arief, S.; Munadi, K.; Melianda, E.
2017-02-01
The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that struck most of coastal cities in Aceh has motivated a numerous changes in the world of disaster risk reduction including to the policies and regulations at local level in Aceh. This paper is aimed at elaborating the changes of policies and regulations in Aceh captured and monitored during 12-year of the tsunami recovery process. A set of questionnaires were distributed to about 245 respondents in Aceh to represent government officials at 6 districts in Aceh. The districts were severely damaged due to the 2004 tsunami. Four aspects were investigated during this research, namely tsunami evacuation mechanism and infrastructures, disaster risk map, disaster data accessibility, perceptions on tsunami risks, and development of tsunami early warning at local level in Aceh. This research found that the spatial planning in several districts in Aceh have adopted tsunami mitigation although they were only significant in terms of land-use planning within several hundreds meter from the coastline. Perceptions of the government officials toward all investigated aspects were relatively good. One concern was found at coordination among disaster stakeholders in Aceh.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kammerer, A. M.; Godoy, A. R.
2009-12-01
In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, as well as the anticipation of the submission of license applications for new nuclear facilities, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) initiated a long-term research program to improve understanding of tsunami hazard levels for nuclear power plants and other coastal facilities in the United States. To undertake this effort, the US NRC organized a collaborative research program jointly undertaken with researchers at the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the purpose of assessing tsunami hazard on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. This study identified and modeled both seismic and landslide tsunamigenic sources in the near- and far-field. The results from this work are now being used directly as the basis for the review of tsunami hazard at potential nuclear plant sites. This application once again shows the importance that the earth sciences can play in addressing issues of importance to society. Because the Indian Ocean Tsunami was a global event, a number of cooperative international activities have also been initiated within the nuclear community. The results of US efforts are being incorporated into updated regulatory guidance for both the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the United Nation’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Coordinated efforts are underway to integrate state-of-the art tsunami warning tools developed by NOAA into NRC and IAEA activities. The goal of the warning systems project is to develop automated protocols that allow scientists at these agencies to have up-to-the minute user-specific information in hand shortly after a potential tsunami has been identified by the US Tsunami Warning System. Lastly, USGS and NOAA scientists are assisting the NRC and IAEA in a special Extra-Budgetary Program (IAEA EBP) on tsunami being coordinated by the IAEA’s International Seismic Safety
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chacón-Barrantes, Silvia; López-Venegas, Alberto; Sánchez-Escobar, Rónald; Luque-Vergara, Néstor
2018-04-01
Historical records have shown that tsunami have affected the Caribbean region in the past. However infrequent, recent studies have demonstrated that they pose a latent hazard for countries within this basin. The Hazard Assessment Working Group of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS (Intergovernmental Coordination Group of the Early Warning System for Tsunamis and Other Coastal Threats for the Caribbean Sea and Adjacent Regions) of IOC/UNESCO has a modeling subgroup, which seeks to develop a modeling platform to assess the effects of possible tsunami sources within the basin. The CaribeWave tsunami exercise is carried out annually in the Caribbean region to increase awareness and test tsunami preparedness of countries within the basin. In this study we present results of tsunami inundation using the CaribeWave15 exercise scenario for four selected locations within the Caribbean basin (Colombia, Costa Rica, Panamá and Puerto Rico), performed by tsunami modeling researchers from those selected countries. The purpose of this study was to provide the states with additional results for the exercise. The results obtained here were compared to co-seismic deformation and tsunami heights within the basin (energy plots) provided for the exercise to assess the performance of the decision support tools distributed by PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Center), the tsunami service provider for the Caribbean basin. However, comparison of coastal tsunami heights was not possible, due to inconsistencies between the provided fault parameters and the modeling results within the provided exercise products. Still, the modeling performed here allowed to analyze tsunami characteristics at the mentioned states from sources within the North Panamá Deformed Belt. The occurrence of a tsunami in the Caribbean may affect several countries because a great variety of them share coastal zones in this basin. Therefore, collaborative efforts similar to the one presented in this study, particularly between neighboring
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chacón-Barrantes, Silvia; López-Venegas, Alberto; Sánchez-Escobar, Rónald; Luque-Vergara, Néstor
2017-10-01
Historical records have shown that tsunami have affected the Caribbean region in the past. However infrequent, recent studies have demonstrated that they pose a latent hazard for countries within this basin. The Hazard Assessment Working Group of the ICG/CARIBE-EWS (Intergovernmental Coordination Group of the Early Warning System for Tsunamis and Other Coastal Threats for the Caribbean Sea and Adjacent Regions) of IOC/UNESCO has a modeling subgroup, which seeks to develop a modeling platform to assess the effects of possible tsunami sources within the basin. The CaribeWave tsunami exercise is carried out annually in the Caribbean region to increase awareness and test tsunami preparedness of countries within the basin. In this study we present results of tsunami inundation using the CaribeWave15 exercise scenario for four selected locations within the Caribbean basin (Colombia, Costa Rica, Panamá and Puerto Rico), performed by tsunami modeling researchers from those selected countries. The purpose of this study was to provide the states with additional results for the exercise. The results obtained here were compared to co-seismic deformation and tsunami heights within the basin (energy plots) provided for the exercise to assess the performance of the decision support tools distributed by PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Center), the tsunami service provider for the Caribbean basin. However, comparison of coastal tsunami heights was not possible, due to inconsistencies between the provided fault parameters and the modeling results within the provided exercise products. Still, the modeling performed here allowed to analyze tsunami characteristics at the mentioned states from sources within the North Panamá Deformed Belt. The occurrence of a tsunami in the Caribbean may affect several countries because a great variety of them share coastal zones in this basin. Therefore, collaborative efforts similar to the one presented in this study, particularly between neighboring
Landslide risk mitigation by means of early warning systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Calvello, Michele
2017-04-01
Among the many options available to mitigate landslide risk, early warning systems may be used where, in specific circumstances, the risk to life increases above tolerable levels. A coherent framework to classify and analyse landslide early warning systems (LEWS) is herein presented. Once the objectives of an early warning strategy are defined depending on the scale of analysis and the type of landslides to address, the process of designing and managing a LEWS should synergically employ technical and social skills. A classification scheme for the main components of LEWSs is proposed for weather-induced landslides. The scheme is based on a clear distinction among: i) the landslide model, i.e. a functional relationship between weather characteristics and landslide events considering the geotechnical, geomorphological and hydro-geological characterization of the area as well as an adequate monitoring strategy; ii) the warning model, i.e. the landslide model plus procedures to define the warning events and to issue the warnings; iii) the warning system, i.e. the warning model plus warning dissemination procedures, communication and education tools, strategies for community involvement and emergency plans. Each component of a LEWS is related to a number of actors involved with their deployment, operational activities and management. For instance, communication and education, community involvement and emergency plans are all significantly influenced by people's risk perception and by operational aspects system managers need to address in cooperation with scientists.
CARIBE WAVE/LANTEX Caribbean and Western Atlantic Tsunami Exercises
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Whitmore, P.; Aliaga, B.; Huerfano Moreno, V.
2013-12-01
Over 75 tsunamis have been documented in the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions over the past 500 years. While most have been generated by local earthquakes, distant generated tsunamis can also affect the region. For example, waves from the 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami were observed in Cuba, Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, as well as Antigua, Martinique, Guadalupe and Barbados in the Lesser Antilles. Since 1500, at least 4484 people are reported to have perished in these killer waves. Although the tsunami generated by the 2010 Haiti earthquake claimed only a few lives, in the 1530 El Pilar, Venezuela; 1602 Port Royale, Jamaica; 1918 Puerto Rico; and 1946 Samaná, Dominican Republic tsunamis the death tolls ranged to over a thousand. Since then, there has been an explosive increase in residents, visitors, infrastructure, and economic activity along the coastlines, increasing the potential for human and economic loss. It has been estimated that on any day, upwards of more than 500,000 people could be in harm's way just along the beaches, with hundreds of thousands more working and living in the tsunamis hazard zones. Given the relative infrequency of tsunamis, exercises are a valuable tool to test communications, evaluate preparedness and raise awareness. Exercises in the Caribbean are conducted under the framework of the UNESCO IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS) and the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. On March 23, 2011, 34 countries and territories participated in the first CARIBE WAVE/LANTEX regional tsunami exercise, while in the second exercise on March 20, 2013 a total of 45 countries and territories participated. 481 organizations (almost 200 more than in 2011) also registered to receive the bulletins issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center and/or the Puerto Rico
Urban Flood Prevention and Early Warning System in Jinan City
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Feng, Shiyuan; Li, Qingguo
2018-06-01
The system construction of urban flood control and disaster reduction in China is facing pressure and challenge from new urban water disaster. Under the circumstances that it is difficult to build high standards of flood protection engineering measures in urban areas, it is particularly important to carry out urban flood early warning. In Jinan City, a representative inland area, based on the index system of early warning of flood in Jinan urban area, the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was adopted to evaluate the level of early warning. Based on the cumulative rainfall of 3 hours, the CAflood simulation results based on cellular automaton model of urban flooding were used as evaluation indexes to realize the accuracy and integration of urban flood control early warning.
Tsunamis hazard assessment and monitoring for the Back Sea area
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Partheniu, Raluca; Ionescu, Constantin; Constantin, Angela; Moldovan, Iren; Diaconescu, Mihail; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Radulian, Mircea; Toader, Victorin
2016-04-01
NIEP has improved lately its researches regarding tsunamis in the Black Sea. As part of the routine earthquake and tsunami monitoring activity, the first tsunami early-warning system in the Black Sea has been implemented in 2013 and is active during these last years. In order to monitor the seismic activity of the Black Sea, NIEP is using a total number of 114 real time stations and 2 seismic arrays, 18 of the stations being located in Dobrogea area, area situated in the vicinity of the Romanian Black Sea shore line. Moreover, there is a data exchange with the Black Sea surrounding countries involving the acquisition of real-time data for 17 stations from Bulgaria, Turkey, Georgia and Ukraine. This improves the capability of the Romanian Seismic Network to monitor and more accurately locate the earthquakes occurred in the Black Sea area. For tsunamis monitoring and warning, a number of 6 sea level monitoring stations, 1 infrasound barometer, 3 offshore marine buoys and 7 GPS/GNSS stations are installed in different locations along and near the Romanian shore line. In the framework of ASTARTE project, few objectives regarding the seismic hazard and tsunami waves height assessment for the Black Sea were accomplished. The seismic hazard estimation was based on statistical studies of the seismic sources and their characteristics, compiled using different seismic catalogues. Two probabilistic methods were used for the evaluation of the seismic hazard, the Cornell method, based on the Gutenberg Richter distribution parameters, and Gumbel method, based on extremes statistic. The results show maximum values of possible magnitudes and their recurrence periods, for each seismic source. Using the Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT) software, a set of tsunami modelling scenarios have been generated for Shabla area, the seismic source that could mostly affect the Romanian shore. These simulations are structured in a database, in order to set maximum possible tsunami waves that could be
New Offshore Approach to Reduce Impact of Tsunami Waves
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anant Chatorikar, Kaustubh
2016-07-01
The world is facing an increasing frequency and intensity of natural disaster that has devastating impacts on society. As per International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), it has been observed that over five million people were killed or affected in last 10 years and huge amount of economic losses occurred due to natural disaster. The 2011 tsunami in Japan showed a tremendous setback to existing technology of tsunami protection. More than 25,000 lives have been lost, Apart from that the damage to the nuclear power stations has severely affected the nearby populace and marine life. After the 2004 tsunami, world's effort has been concentrated on early warning and effective mitigation plans to defend against tsunami. It is anybody's guess as to what would have happened if such natural calamity specifically tsunami of such magnitude strikes our nation as country has already suffered from it in 2004 and seen its disastrous effects. But the point is what if such calamity strikes the mega cities like Chennai, Mumbai and Kolkata again where there is extensive human habitation and conventional warning systems and mitigation methods are not effective when it comes to huge population of these cities, destruction caused by it will be worse than nuclear weapon strike as there is also very high possibility of deaths due to stampede. This paper talks about an idea inspired from daily routine and its relation with fundamental physics as well as method of its deployment is discussed. According to this idea when wave will strike the coast, aim is not to stop it but to reduce its impact within the permissible impact limits of existing infrastructure by converting it into foam wave with help of surfactants, thereby saving human lives as well as complications of Mitigation.
Preparing for floods: flood forecasting and early warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cloke, Hannah
2016-04-01
Flood forecasting and early warning has continued to stride ahead in strengthening the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, saving lives and property and reducing the overall impact of severe flood events. For example, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems such as the European Flood Awareness System and the Global Flood Awareness System provide early information about upcoming floods in real time to various decisionmakers. Studies have found that there are monetary benefits to implementing these early flood warning systems, and with the science also in place to provide evidence of benefit and hydrometeorological institutional outlooks warming to the use of probabilistic forecasts, the uptake over the last decade has been rapid and sustained. However, there are many further challenges that lie ahead to improve the science supporting flood early warning and to ensure that appropriate decisions are made to maximise flood preparedness.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mencin, D.; Hodgkinson, K. M.; Mattioli, G. S.
2017-12-01
In support of hazard research and Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) Systems UNAVCO operates approximately 800 RT-GNSS stations throughout western North America and Alaska (EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory), Mexico (TLALOCNet), and the pan-Caribbean region (COCONet). Our system produces and distributes raw data (BINEX and RTCM3) and real-time Precise Point Positions via the Trimble PIVOT Platform (RTX). The 2017-09-08 earthquake M8.2 located 98 km SSW of Tres Picos, Mexico is the first great earthquake to occur within the UNAVCO RT-GNSS footprint, which allows for a rigorous analysis of our dynamic and static processing methods. The need for rapid geodetic solutions ranges from seconds (EEW systems) to several minutes (Tsunami Warning and NEIC moment tensor and finite fault models). Here, we compare and quantify the relative processing strategies for producing static offsets, moment tensors and geodetically determined finite fault models using data recorded during this event. We also compare the geodetic solutions with the USGS NEIC seismically derived moment tensors and finite fault models, including displacement waveforms generated from these models. We define kinematic post-processed solutions from GIPSY-OASISII (v6.4) with final orbits and clocks as a "best" case reference to evaluate the performance of our different processing strategies. We find that static displacements of a few centimeters or less are difficult to resolve in the real-time GNSS position estimates. The standard daily 24-hour solutions provide the highest-quality data-set to determine coseismic offsets, but these solutions are delayed by at least 48 hours after the event. Dynamic displacements, estimated in real-time, however, show reasonable agreement with final, post-processed position estimates, and while individual position estimates have large errors, the real-time solutions offer an excellent operational option for EEW systems, including the use of estimated peak-ground displacements or
Sensors Provide Early Warning of Biological Threats
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
2009-01-01
Early Warning Inc. of Troy, New York, licensed powerful biosensor technology from Ames Research Center. Incorporating carbon nanotubes tipped with single strands of nucleic acid from waterborne pathogens, the sensor can detect even minute amounts of targeted, disease causing bacteria, viruses, and parasites. Early Warning features the NASA biosensor in its water analyzer, which can provide advance alert of potential biological hazards in water used for agriculture, food and beverages, showers, and at beaches and lakes -- within hours instead of the days required by conventional laboratory methods.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilson, R. I.; Eble, M. C.
2013-12-01
The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) is comprised of representatives from coastal states and federal agencies who, under the guidance of NOAA, work together to develop protocols and products to help communities prepare for and mitigate tsunami hazards. Within the NTHMP are several subcommittees responsible for complimentary aspects of tsunami assessment, mitigation, education, warning, and response. The Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee (MMS) is comprised of state and federal scientists who specialize in tsunami source characterization, numerical tsunami modeling, inundation map production, and warning forecasting. Until September 2012, much of the work of the MMS was authorized through the Tsunami Warning and Education Act, an Act that has since expired but the spirit of which is being adhered to in parallel with reauthorization efforts. Over the past several years, the MMS has developed guidance and best practices for states and territories to produce accurate and consistent tsunami inundation maps for community level evacuation planning, and has conducted benchmarking of numerical inundation models. Recent tsunami events have highlighted the need for other types of tsunami hazard analyses and products for improving evacuation planning, vertical evacuation, maritime planning, land-use planning, building construction, and warning forecasts. As the program responsible for producing accurate and consistent tsunami products nationally, the NTHMP-MMS is initiating a multi-year plan to accomplish the following: 1) Create and build on existing demonstration projects that explore new tsunami hazard analysis techniques and products, such as maps identifying areas of strong currents and potential damage within harbors as well as probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for land-use planning. 2) Develop benchmarks for validating new numerical modeling techniques related to current velocities and landslide sources. 3) Generate guidance and protocols for
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dunbar, P. K.; Mccullough, H. L.; Mungov, G.; Harris, E.
2012-12-01
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has primary responsibility for providing tsunami warnings to the Nation, and a leadership role in tsunami observations and research. A key component of this effort is easy access to authoritative data on past tsunamis, a responsibility of the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and collocated World Service for Geophysics. Archive responsibilities include the global historical tsunami database, coastal tide-gauge data from US/NOAA operated stations, the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART®) data, damage photos, as well as other related hazards data. Taken together, this integrated archive supports tsunami forecast, warning, research, mitigation and education efforts of NOAA and the Nation. Understanding the severity and timing of tsunami effects is important for tsunami hazard mitigation and warning. The global historical tsunami database includes the date, time, and location of the source event, magnitude of the source, event validity, maximum wave height, the total number of fatalities and dollar damage. The database contains additional information on run-ups (locations where tsunami waves were observed by eyewitnesses, field reconnaissance surveys, tide gauges, or deep ocean sensors). The run-up table includes arrival times, distance from the source, measurement type, maximum wave height, and the number of fatalities and damage for the specific run-up location. Tide gauge data are required for modeling the interaction of tsunami waves with the coast and for verifying propagation and inundation models. NGDC is the long-term archive for all NOAA coastal tide gauge data and is currently archiving 15-second to 1-minute water level data from the NOAA Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) and the NOAA Tsunami Warning Centers. DART® buoys, which are essential components of tsunami warning systems, are now deployed in all oceans, giving coastal communities
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilson, R. I.; Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Dengler, L. A.; Miller, K.; LaDuke, Y.
2017-12-01
The preliminary tsunami impacts from the September 7, 2017, M8.1 Tehuantepec Earthquake have been summarized in the following report: https://www.eeri.org/wp-content/uploads/EERI-Recon-Rpt-090717-Mexico-tsunami_fn.pdf. Although the tsunami impacts were not as significant as those from the earthquake itself (98 fatalities and 41,000 homes damaged), the following are highlights and lessons learned: The Tehuantepec earthquake was one of the largest down-slab normal faulting events ever recorded. This situation complicated the tsunami forecast since forecast methods and pre-event modeling are primarily associated with megathrust earthquakes where the most significant tsunamis are generated. Adding non-megathrust source modeling to the tsunami forecast databases of conventional warning systems should be considered. Offshore seismic and tsunami hazard analyses using past events should incorporate the potential for large earthquakes occurring along sources other than the megathrust boundary. From an engineering perspective, initial reports indicate there was only minor tsunami damage along the Mexico coast. There was damage to Marina Chiapas where floating docks overtopped their piles. Increasing pile heights could reduce the potential for damage to floating docks. Tsunami warning notifications did not get to the public in time to assist with evacuation. Streamlining the messaging in Mexico from the warning system directly to the public should be considered. And, for local events, preparedness efforts should place emphasis on responding to feeling the earthquake and not waiting to be notified. Although the U.S. tsunami warning centers were timely with their international and domestic messaging, there were some issues with how those messages were presented and interpreted. The use of a "Tsunami Threat" banner on the new main warning center website created confusion with emergency managers in the U.S. where no tsunami threat was expected to exist. Also, some U.S. states and
Source mechanisms of volcanic tsunamis.
Paris, Raphaël
2015-10-28
Volcanic tsunamis are generated by a variety of mechanisms, including volcano-tectonic earthquakes, slope instabilities, pyroclastic flows, underwater explosions, shock waves and caldera collapse. In this review, we focus on the lessons that can be learnt from past events and address the influence of parameters such as volume flux of mass flows, explosion energy or duration of caldera collapse on tsunami generation. The diversity of waves in terms of amplitude, period, form, dispersion, etc. poses difficulties for integration and harmonization of sources to be used for numerical models and probabilistic tsunami hazard maps. In many cases, monitoring and warning of volcanic tsunamis remain challenging (further technical and scientific developments being necessary) and must be coupled with policies of population preparedness. © 2015 The Author(s).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Takagawa, T.
2017-12-01
A rapid and precise tsunami forecast based on offshore monitoring is getting attention to reduce human losses due to devastating tsunami inundation. We developed a forecast method based on the combination of hierarchical Bayesian inversion with pre-computed database and rapid post-computing of tsunami inundation. The method was applied to Tokyo bay to evaluate the efficiency of observation arrays against three tsunamigenic earthquakes. One is a scenario earthquake at Nankai trough and the other two are historic ones of Genroku in 1703 and Enpo in 1677. In general, rich observation array near the tsunami source has an advantage in both accuracy and rapidness of tsunami forecast. To examine the effect of observation time length we used four types of data with the lengths of 5, 10, 20 and 45 minutes after the earthquake occurrences. Prediction accuracy of tsunami inundation was evaluated by the simulated tsunami inundation areas around Tokyo bay due to target earthquakes. The shortest time length of accurate prediction varied with target earthquakes. Here, accurate prediction means the simulated values fall within the 95% credible intervals of prediction. In Enpo earthquake case, 5-minutes observation is enough for accurate prediction for Tokyo bay, but 10-minutes and 45-minutes are needed in the case of Nankai trough and Genroku, respectively. The difference of the shortest time length for accurate prediction shows the strong relationship with the relative distance from the tsunami source and observation arrays. In the Enpo case, offshore tsunami observation points are densely distributed even in the source region. So, accurate prediction can be rapidly achieved within 5 minutes. This precise prediction is useful for early warnings. Even in the worst case of Genroku, where less observation points are available near the source, accurate prediction can be obtained within 45 minutes. This information can be useful to figure out the outline of the hazard in an early
Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.
2017-01-01
Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.
The Financial Benefit of Early Flood Warnings in Europe
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Parker, Dennis J.; Richardson, David; Thielen, Jutta
2015-04-01
Effective disaster risk management relies on science based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The outcome of consultations on the UNIDSR post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlight the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management in order to save people's lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. In particular, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital information to various decision makers with which early warnings of floods can be made. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings using the example of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) are calculated based on pan-European Flood damage data and calculations of potential flood damage reductions. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. Because of the uncertainties which accompany the calculation, a large sensitivity analysis is performed in order to develop an envelope of possible financial benefits. Current EFAS system skill is compared against perfect forecasts to demonstrate the importance of further improving the skill of the forecasts. Improving the response to warnings is also essential in reaping the benefits of flood early warnings.
Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume III"
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.
2018-04-01
Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume III of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 and Volume II as PAGEOPH, vol. 174, No. 8, 2017. Two papers in Volume III focus on specific details of the 2009 Samoa and the 1923 northern Kamchatka tsunamis; they are followed by three papers related to tsunami hazard assessment for three different regions of the world oceans: South Africa, Pacific coast of Mexico and the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean. The next six papers are on various aspects of tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling, including tsunami edge waves, resonant behaviour of compressible water layer during tsunamigenic earthquakes, dispersive properties of seismic and volcanically generated tsunami waves, tsunami runup on a vertical wall and influence of earthquake rupture velocity on maximum tsunami runup. Four papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting for Central America, the Mediterranean coast of France, the coast of Peru, and some general problems regarding the optimum use of the DART buoy network for effective real-time tsunami warning in the Pacific Ocean. Two papers describe historical and paleotsunami studies in the Russian Far East. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: asteroid airburst and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.
Prioritizing earthquake and tsunami alerting efforts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Allen, R. M.; Allen, S.; Aranha, M. A.; Chung, A. I.; Hellweg, M.; Henson, I. H.; Melgar, D.; Neuhauser, D. S.; Nof, R. N.; Strauss, J. A.
2015-12-01
The timeline of hazards associated with earthquakes ranges from seconds for the strong shaking at the epicenter, to minutes for strong shaking at more distant locations in big quakes, to tens of minutes for a local tsunami. Earthquake and tsunami warning systems must therefore include very fast initial alerts, while also taking advantage of available time in bigger and tsunami-generating quakes. At the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory we are developing a suite of algorithms to provide the fullest possible information about earthquake shaking and tsunami inundation from seconds to minutes after a quake. The E-larmS algorithm uses the P-wave to rapidly detect an earthquake and issue a warning. It is currently issuing alerts to test users in as little as 3 sec after the origin time. Development of a new waveform detector may lead to even faster alerts. G-larmS uses permanent deformation estimates from GNSS stations to estimate the geometry and extent of rupture underway providing more accurate ground shaking estimates in big (M>~7) earthquakes. It performed well in the M6.0 2014 Napa earthquake. T-larmS is a new algorithm designed to extend alert capabilities to tsunami inundation. Rapid estimates of source characteristics for subduction zones event can not only be used to warn of the shaking hazard, but also the local tsunami inundation hazard. These algorithms are being developed, implemented and tested with a focus on the western US, but are also now being tested in other parts of the world including Israel, Turkey, Korea and Chile. Beta users in the Bay Area are receiving the alerts and beginning to implement automated actions. They also provide feedback on users needs, which has led to the development of the MyEEW smartphone app. This app allows beta users to receive the alerts on their cell phones. All these efforts feed into our ongoing assessment of directions and priorities for future development and implementation efforts.
Development of a Tsunami Scenario Database for Marmara Sea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan
2016-04-01
Due to the very short travel times in Marmara Sea, a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) has to be strongly coupled with the earthquake early warning system and should be supported with a pre-computed tsunami scenario database to be queried in near real-time based on the initial earthquake parameters. To address this problem, 30 different composite earthquake scenarios with maximum credible Mw values based on 32 fault segments have been identified to produce a detailed scenario database for all possible earthquakes in the Marmara Sea with a tsunamigenic potential. The bathy/topo data of Marmara Sea was prepared using GEBCO and ASTER data, bathymetric measurements along Bosphorus, Istanbul and Dardanelle, Canakkale and the coastline digitized from satellite images. The coarser domain in 90m-grid size was divided into 11 sub-regions having 30m-grid size in order to increase the data resolution and precision of the calculation results. The analyses were performed in nested domains with numerical model NAMIDANCE using non-linear shallow water equations. In order to cover all the residential areas, industrial facilities and touristic locations, more than 1000 numerical gauge points were selected along the coasts of Marmara Sea, which are located at water depth of 5 to 10m in finer domain. The distributions of tsunami hydrodynamic parameters were investigated together with the change of water surface elevations, current velocities, momentum fluxes and other important parameters at the gauge points. This work is funded by the project MARsite - New Directions in Seismic Hazard assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite (FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2, Grant 308417 - see NH2.3/GMPV7.4/SM7.7) and supported by SATREPS-MarDim Project (Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey) and JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). The authors would like to acknowledge Ms. Basak Firat for her assistance in
Technology-Based Early Warning Systems for Bipolar Disorder: A Conceptual Framework
Torous, John; Thompson, Wesley
2016-01-01
Recognition and timely action around “warning signs” of illness exacerbation is central to the self-management of bipolar disorder. Due to its heterogeneity and fluctuating course, passive and active mobile technologies have been increasingly evaluated as adjunctive or standalone tools to predict and prevent risk of worsening of course in bipolar disorder. As predictive analytics approaches to big data from mobile health (mHealth) applications and ancillary sensors advance, it is likely that early warning systems will increasingly become available to patients. Such systems could reduce the amount of time spent experiencing symptoms and diminish the immense disability experienced by people with bipolar disorder. However, in addition to the challenges in validating such systems, we argue that early warning systems may not be without harms. Probabilistic warnings may be delivered to individuals who may not be able to interpret the warning, have limited information about what behaviors to change, or are unprepared to or cannot feasibly act due to time or logistic constraints. We propose five essential elements for early warning systems and provide a conceptual framework for designing, incorporating stakeholder input, and validating early warning systems for bipolar disorder with a focus on pragmatic considerations. PMID:27604265
People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.
2009-04-01
In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to
Toward the Real-Time Tsunami Parameters Prediction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lavrentyev, Mikhail; Romanenko, Alexey; Marchuk, Andrey
2013-04-01
Today, a wide well-developed system of deep ocean tsunami detectors operates over the Pacific. Direct measurements of tsunami-wave time series are available. However, tsunami-warning systems fail to predict basic parameters of tsunami waves on time. Dozens examples could be provided. In our view, the lack of computational power is the main reason of these failures. At the same time, modern computer technologies such as, GPU (graphic processing unit) and FPGA (field programmable gates array), can dramatically improve data processing performance, which may enhance timely tsunami-warning prediction. Thus, it is possible to address the challenge of real-time tsunami forecasting for selected geo regions. We propose to use three new techniques in the existing tsunami warning systems to achieve real-time calculation of tsunami wave parameters. First of all, measurement system (DART buoys location, e.g.) should be optimized (both in terms of wave arriving time and amplitude parameter). The corresponding software application exists today and is ready for use [1]. We consider the example of the coastal line of Japan. Numerical tests show that optimal installation of only 4 DART buoys (accounting the existing sea bed cable) will reduce the tsunami wave detection time to only 10 min after an underwater earthquake. Secondly, as was shown by this paper authors, the use of GPU/FPGA technologies accelerates the execution of the MOST (method of splitting tsunami) code by 100 times [2]. Therefore, tsunami wave propagation over the ocean area 2000*2000 km (wave propagation simulation: time step 10 sec, recording each 4th spatial point and 4th time step) could be calculated at: 3 sec with 4' mesh 50 sec with 1' mesh 5 min with 0.5' mesh The algorithm to switch from coarse mesh to the fine grain one is also available. Finally, we propose the new algorithm for tsunami source parameters determination by real-time processing the time series, obtained at DART. It is possible to approximate
Meteorological tsunamis along the U.S. coastline
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vilibic, I.; Monserrat, S.; Amores, A.; Dadic, V.; Fine, I.; Horvath, K.; Ivankovic, D.; Marcos, M.; Mihanovic, H.; Pasquet, S.; Rabinovich, A. B.; Sepic, J.; Strelec Mahovic, N.; Whitmore, P.
2012-04-01
Meteotsunamis, or meteorological tsunamis, are atmospherically induced ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band that are found to affect coasts in a destructive way in a number of places in the World Ocean, including the U.S. coastline. The Boothbay Harbor, Maine, in October 2008 and Daytona Beach, Florida, in July 1992 were hit by several meters high waves appearing from "nowhere", and a preliminary assessment pointed to the atmosphere as a possible source for the events. As a need for in-depth analyses and proper qualification of these and other events emerged, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) decided to fund the research, currently carried out within the TMEWS project (Towards a MEteotsunami Warning System along the U.S. coastline). The project structure, planned research activities and first results will be presented here. The first objective of the project is creation of a list of potential meteotsunami events, from catalogues, news and high-resolution sea level data, and their proper assessment with regards to the source, generation and dynamics. The assessment will be based on the research of the various types of ocean (tide gauges, buoys), atmospheric (ground stations, buoys, vertical soundings, reanalyses) and remote sensing (satellites) data and products, supported by the atmospheric and ocean modelling efforts. Based on the earned knowledge, the basis for a meteotsunami warning system, i.e. observational systems and communication needs for early detection of a meteotsunami, will be defined. Finally, meteotsunami warning protocols, procedures and decision matrix will be developed, and tested on historical meteotsunami events. These deliverables are expected also to boost meteotsunami research in other parts of the World Ocean, and to contribute to the creation of an efficient meteotsunami warning systems in different regions of interest, such as Mediterranean Sea, western Japan, Western Australia or other.
Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems.
Karnatak, Rajat; Kantz, Holger; Bialonski, Stephan
2017-10-01
The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and nonbifurcation-type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) which is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a conceptual climate model as well as in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events. We observed critical attractor growth prior to interior crises of chaotic as well as strange-nonchaotic attractors. These observations promise to extend the classes of transitions that can be predicted via early warning signals.
The 17 July 2006 Tsunami earthquake in West Java, Indonesia
Mori, J.; Mooney, W.D.; Afnimar,; Kurniawan, S.; Anaya, A.I.; Widiyantoro, S.
2007-01-01
A tsunami earthquake (Mw = 7.7) occurred south of Java on 17 July 2006. The event produced relatively low levels of high-frequency radiation, and local felt reports indicated only weak shaking in Java. There was no ground motion damage from the earthquake, but there was extensive damage and loss of life from the tsunami along 250 km of the southern coasts of West Java and Central Java. An inspection of the area a few days after the earthquake showed extensive damage to wooden and unreinforced masonry buildings that were located within several hundred meters of the coast. Since there was no tsunami warning system in place, efforts to escape the large waves depended on how people reacted to the earthquake shaking, which was only weakly felt in the coastal areas. This experience emphasizes the need for adequate tsunami warning systems for the Indian Ocean region.
Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns
Brock, William A.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Livina, Valerie N.; Seekell, David A.; Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H.; Dakos, Vasilis
2014-01-01
A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data. PMID:24658137
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gica, E.
2016-12-01
The Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT) tool, developed by NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (NCTR) at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), is used in forecast operations at the Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. The SIFT tool relies on a pre-computed tsunami propagation database, real-time DART buoy data, and an inversion algorithm to define the tsunami source. The tsunami propagation database is composed of 50×100km unit sources, simulated basin-wide for at least 24 hours. Different combinations of unit sources, DART buoys, and length of real-time DART buoy data can generate a wide range of results within the defined tsunami source. For an inexperienced SIFT user, the primary challenge is to determine which solution, among multiple solutions for a single tsunami event, would provide the best forecast in real time. This study investigates how the use of different tsunami sources affects simulated tsunamis at tide gauge locations. Using the tide gauge at Hilo, Hawaii, a total of 50 possible solutions for the 2011 Tohoku tsunami are considered. Maximum tsunami wave amplitude and root mean square error results are used to compare tide gauge data and the simulated tsunami time series. Results of this study will facilitate SIFT users' efforts to determine if the simulated tide gauge tsunami time series from a specific tsunami source solution would be within the range of possible solutions. This study will serve as the basis for investigating more historical tsunami events and tide gauge locations.
Early Warnings for Local Labor Markets
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Matland, Marc A.
1976-01-01
This articles summarizes the National Planning Association's (NPA) experience in its initial efforts to develop an early warning system to anticipate job openings generated in local communities by large Federal procurement contracts. (WL)
Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume III”
Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.
2018-01-01
Twenty papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume III of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 and Volume II as PAGEOPH, vol. 174, No. 8, 2017. Two papers in Volume III focus on specific details of the 2009 Samoa and the 1923 northern Kamchatka tsunamis; they are followed by three papers related to tsunami hazard assessment for three different regions of the world oceans: South Africa, Pacific coast of Mexico and the northwestern part of the Indian Ocean. The next six papers are on various aspects of tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling, including tsunami edge waves, resonant behaviour of compressible water layer during tsunamigenic earthquakes, dispersive properties of seismic and volcanically generated tsunami waves, tsunami runup on a vertical wall and influence of earthquake rupture velocity on maximum tsunami runup. Four papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting for Central America, the Mediterranean coast of France, the coast of Peru, and some general problems regarding the optimum use of the DART buoy network for effective real-time tsunami warning in the Pacific Ocean. Two papers describe historical and paleotsunami studies in the Russian Far East. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: asteroid airburst and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.
[Early warning on measles through the neural networks].
Yu, Bin; Ding, Chun; Wei, Shan-bo; Chen, Bang-hua; Liu, Pu-lin; Luo, Tong-yong; Wang, Jia-gang; Pan, Zhi-wei; Lu, Jun-an
2011-01-01
To discuss the effects on early warning of measles, using the neural networks. Based on the available data through monthly and weekly reports on measles from January 1986 to August 2006 in Wuhan city. The modal was developed using the neural networks to predict and analyze the prevalence and incidence of measles. When the dynamic time series modal was established with back propagation (BP) networks consisting of two layers, if p was assigned as 9, the convergence speed was acceptable and the correlation coefficient was equal to 0.85. It was more acceptable for monthly forecasting the specific value, but better for weekly forecasting the classification under probabilistic neural networks (PNN). When data was big enough to serve the purpose, it seemed more feasible for early warning using the two-layer BP networks. However, when data was not enough, then PNN could be used for the purpose of prediction. This method seemed feasible to be used in the system for early warning.
Earthquake Early Warning: User Education and Designing Effective Messages
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burkett, E. R.; Sellnow, D. D.; Jones, L.; Sellnow, T. L.
2014-12-01
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and partners are transitioning from test-user trials of a demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) to deciding and preparing how to implement the release of earthquake early warning information, alert messages, and products to the public and other stakeholders. An earthquake early warning system uses seismic station networks to rapidly gather information about an occurring earthquake and send notifications to user devices ahead of the arrival of potentially damaging ground shaking at their locations. Earthquake early warning alerts can thereby allow time for actions to protect lives and property before arrival of damaging shaking, if users are properly educated on how to use and react to such notifications. A collaboration team of risk communications researchers and earth scientists is researching the effectiveness of a chosen subset of potential earthquake early warning interface designs and messages, which could be displayed on a device such as a smartphone. Preliminary results indicate, for instance, that users prefer alerts that include 1) a map to relate their location to the earthquake and 2) instructions for what to do in response to the expected level of shaking. A number of important factors must be considered to design a message that will promote appropriate self-protective behavior. While users prefer to see a map, how much information can be processed in limited time? Are graphical representations of wavefronts helpful or confusing? The most important factor to promote a helpful response is the predicted earthquake intensity, or how strong the expected shaking will be at the user's location. Unlike Japanese users of early warning, few Californians are familiar with the earthquake intensity scale, so we are exploring how differentiating instructions between intensity levels (e.g., "Be aware" for lower shaking levels and "Drop, cover, hold on" at high levels) can be paired with self-directed supplemental
2009 Samoa tsunami: factors that exacerbated or reduced impacts in Samoa and American Samoa
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dengler, L. A.; Ewing, L.; Brandt, J.; Irish, J. L.; Jones, C.; Long, K.; Lazrus, H.; McCullough, N.
2009-12-01
An interdisciplinary team with expertise in coastal and port engineering, coastal management, environmental science, anthropology, emergency management, and mitigation visited Samoa and American Samoa in late October and November, 2009. The team, sponsored by ASCE/COPRI, EERI, and the NTHMP focused on identifying the factors which effected the impacts of the September 29, 2009 tsunami. The engineering group assessed the value of engineered coastal protection and natural protective features (reefs, mangroves, etc.) in reducing tsunami inundation by comparing protected and unprotected coastlines and examined possible correlations between damage to the built environment and hydrodynamic forcing, namely loading by runup and velocity. The EERI group looked at how coastal land use planning and management, emergency planning and response, and culture, education and awareness of tsunami hazards affected outcomes. The group also looked at public response to the natural warnings of September 29 and the official warnings following the October 7 Vanuatu tsunami warning.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Strauch, W.; Talavera, E.; Acosta, N.; Sanchez, M.; Mejia, E.
2007-05-01
The Nicaraguan Pacific coast presents considerable tsunami risk. On September 1, 1992, a tsunami caused enormous damage in the infrastructure and killed more than 170 people. A pilot project was conducted between 2006 and 2007 in the municipality of San Rafel del Sur, area of Masachapa, The project included multiple topics of tsunami prevention measures and considering the direct participation of the local population, as: -General education on disaster prevention, participative events; -Investigation of awareness level and information needs for different population groups; -Specific educational measures in the schools; -Publication of brochures, calendars, news paper articles, radio programs, TV spots -Development of local tsunami hazard maps, 1:5,000 scale; (based on previous regional tsunami hazard mapping projects and local participation) -Development of a tsunami warning plan; -Improvements of the national tsunami warning system. -Installation of sirens for tsunami warning -Installation of tsunami signs, indicating hazardous areas, evacuation routes, safe places; -Realization of evacuation drills in schools. Based on the experiences gained in Masachapa it is planned to run similar projects in other areas along the Nicaraguan Pacific coast. In the project participated the local municipality and local stakeholders of San Rafael del Sur, Ministry of Education, National Police, Nicaraguan Red Cross, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Tourism, Nicaraguan Geosciences Institute (INETER), National System for Disaster Prevention (SINAPRED), Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC). It was financed by SDC and INETER.
Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume I"
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Tanioka, Yuichiro
2016-12-01
Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.
Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems
Bauch, Chris T.; Sigdel, Ram; Pharaon, Joe; Anand, Madhur
2016-01-01
In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system’s dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human–environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be “doomed to criticality”: Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research. PMID:27815533
Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington
2014-05-01
Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to
A Tsunami-Focused Tide Station Data Sharing Framework
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kari, U. S.; Marra, J. J.; Weinstein, S. A.
2006-12-01
The Indian Ocean Tsunami of 26 December 2004 made it clear that information about tide stations that could be used to support detection and warning (such as location, collection and transmission capabilities, operator identification) are insufficiently known or not readily accessible. Parties interested in addressing this problem united under the Pacific Region Data Integrated Data Enterprise (PRIDE), and in 2005 began a multiyear effort to develop a distributed metadata system describing tide stations starting with pilot activities in a regional framework and focusing on tsunami detection and warning systems being developed by various agencies. First, a plain semantic description of the tsunami-focused tide station metadata was developed. The semantic metadata description was, in turn, developed into a formal metadata schema championed by International Tsunami Information Centre (ITIC) as part of a larger effort to develop a prototype web service under the PRIDE program in 2005. Under the 2006 PRIDE program the formal metadata schema was then expanded to corral input parameters for the TideTool application used by Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) to drill down into wave activity at a tide station that is located using a web service developed on this metadata schema. This effort contributed to formalization of web service dissemination of PTWC watch and warning tsunami bulletins. During this time, the data content and sharing issues embodied in this schema have been discussed at various forums. The result is that the various stakeholders have different data provider and user perspectives (semantic content) and also exchange formats (not limited to just XML). The challenge then, is not only to capture all data requirements, but also to have formal representation that is easily transformed into any specified format. The latest revision of the tide gauge schema (Version 0.3), begins to address this challenge. It encompasses a broader range of provider and user
[Ecological security early-warning in Zhoushan Islands based on variable weight model].
Zhou, Bin; Zhong, Lin-sheng; Chen, Tian; Zhou, Rui
2015-06-01
Ecological security early warning, as an important content of ecological security research, is of indicating significance in maintaining regional ecological security. Based on driving force, pressure, state, impact and response (D-P-S-I-R) framework model, this paper took Zhoushan Islands in Zhejiang Province as an example to construct the ecological security early warning index system, test degrees of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands from 2000 to 2012 by using the method of variable weight model, and forecast ecological security state of 2013-2018 by Markov prediction method. The results showed that the variable weight model could meet the study needs of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands. There was a fluctuant rising ecological security early warning index from 0.286 to 0.484 in Zhoushan Islands between year 2000 and 2012, in which the security grade turned from "serious alert" into " medium alert" and the indicator light turned from "orange" to "yellow". The degree of ecological security warning was "medium alert" with the light of "yellow" for Zhoushan Islands from 2013 to 2018. These findings could provide a reference for ecological security maintenance of Zhoushan Islands.
Mosher, D.C.
2009-01-01
Canada has the longest coastline and largest continental margin of any nation in the World. As a result, it is more likely than other nations to experience marine geohazards such as submarine landslides and consequent tsunamis. Coastal landslides represent a specific threat because of their possible proximity to societal infrastructure and high tsunami potential; they occur without warning and with little time lag between failure and tsunami impact. Continental margin landslides are common in the geologic record but rare on human timescales. Some ancient submarine landslides are massive but more recent events indicate that even relatively small slides on continental margins can generate devastating tsunamis. Tsunami impact can occur hundreds of km away from the source event, and with less than 2 hours warning. Identification of high-potential submarine landslide regions, combined with an understanding of landslide and tsunami processes and sophisticated tsunami propagation models, are required to identify areas at high risk of impact.
Tsunami waves extensively resurfaced the shorelines of an early Martian ocean
Rodriguez, J. Alexis P.; Fairén, Alberto G.; Tanaka, Kenneth L.; Zarroca, Mario; Linares, Rogelio; Platz, Thomas; Komatsu, Goro; Miyamoto, Hideaki; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Yan, Jianguo; Gulick, Virginia; Higuchi, Kana; Baker, Victor R.; Glines, Natalie
2016-01-01
It has been proposed that ~3.4 billion years ago an ocean fed by enormous catastrophic floods covered most of the Martian northern lowlands. However, a persistent problem with this hypothesis is the lack of definitive paleoshoreline features. Here, based on geomorphic and thermal image mapping in the circum-Chryse and northwestern Arabia Terra regions of the northern plains, in combination with numerical analyses, we show evidence for two enormous tsunami events possibly triggered by bolide impacts, resulting in craters ~30 km in diameter and occurring perhaps a few million years apart. The tsunamis produced widespread littoral landforms, including run-up water-ice-rich and bouldery lobes, which extended tens to hundreds of kilometers over gently sloping plains and boundary cratered highlands, as well as backwash channels where wave retreat occurred on highland-boundary surfaces. The ice-rich lobes formed in association with the younger tsunami, showing that their emplacement took place following a transition into a colder global climatic regime that occurred after the older tsunami event. We conclude that, on early Mars, tsunamis played a major role in generating and resurfacing coastal terrains. PMID:27196957
Tsunami waves extensively resurfaced the shorelines of an early Martian ocean.
Rodriguez, J Alexis P; Fairén, Alberto G; Tanaka, Kenneth L; Zarroca, Mario; Linares, Rogelio; Platz, Thomas; Komatsu, Goro; Miyamoto, Hideaki; Kargel, Jeffrey S; Yan, Jianguo; Gulick, Virginia; Higuchi, Kana; Baker, Victor R; Glines, Natalie
2016-05-19
It has been proposed that ~3.4 billion years ago an ocean fed by enormous catastrophic floods covered most of the Martian northern lowlands. However, a persistent problem with this hypothesis is the lack of definitive paleoshoreline features. Here, based on geomorphic and thermal image mapping in the circum-Chryse and northwestern Arabia Terra regions of the northern plains, in combination with numerical analyses, we show evidence for two enormous tsunami events possibly triggered by bolide impacts, resulting in craters ~30 km in diameter and occurring perhaps a few million years apart. The tsunamis produced widespread littoral landforms, including run-up water-ice-rich and bouldery lobes, which extended tens to hundreds of kilometers over gently sloping plains and boundary cratered highlands, as well as backwash channels where wave retreat occurred on highland-boundary surfaces. The ice-rich lobes formed in association with the younger tsunami, showing that their emplacement took place following a transition into a colder global climatic regime that occurred after the older tsunami event. We conclude that, on early Mars, tsunamis played a major role in generating and resurfacing coastal terrains.
Tsunami Risk for the Caribbean Coast
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kozelkov, A. S.; Kurkin, A. A.; Pelinovsky, E. N.; Zahibo, N.
2004-12-01
The tsunami problem for the coast of the Caribbean basin is discussed. Briefly the historical data of tsunami in the Caribbean Sea are presented. Numerical simulation of potential tsunamis in the Caribbean Sea is performed in the framework of the nonlinear-shallow theory. The tsunami wave height distribution along the Caribbean Coast is computed. These results are used to estimate the far-field tsunami potential of various coastal locations in the Caribbean Sea. In fact, five zones with tsunami low risk are selected basing on prognostic computations, they are: the bay "Golfo de Batabano" and the coast of province "Ciego de Avila" in Cuba, the Nicaraguan Coast (between Bluefields and Puerto Cabezas), the border between Mexico and Belize, the bay "Golfo de Venezuela" in Venezuela. The analysis of historical data confirms that there was no tsunami in the selected zones. Also, the wave attenuation in the Caribbean Sea is investigated; in fact, wave amplitude decreases in an order if the tsunami source is located on the distance up to 1000 km from the coastal location. Both factors wave attenuation and wave height distribution should be taken into account in the planned warning system for the Caribbean Sea.
Comparison of Human Response against Earthquake and Tsunami
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arikawa, T.; Güler, H. G.; Yalciner, A. C.
2017-12-01
The evacuation response against the earthquake and tsunamis is very important for the reduction of human damages against tsunami. But it is very difficult to predict the human behavior after shaking of the earthquake. The purpose of this research is to clarify the difference of the human response after the earthquake shock in the difference countries and to consider the relation between the response and the safety feeling, knowledge and education. For the objective of this paper, the questionnaire survey was conducted after the 21st July 2017 Gokova earthquake and tsunami. Then, consider the difference of the human behavior by comparison of that in 2015 Chilean earthquake and tsunami and 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami. The seismic intensity of the survey points was almost 6 to 7. The contents of the questions include the feeling of shaking, recalling of the tsunami, the behavior after shock and so on. The questionnaire was conducted for more than 20 20 people in 10 areas. The results are the following; 1) Most people felt that it was a strong shake not to stand, 2) All of the questionnaires did not recall the tsunami, 3) Depending on the area, they felt that after the earthquake the beach was safer than being at home. 4) After they saw the sea drawing, they thought that a tsunami would come and ran away. Fig. 1 shows the comparison of the evacuation rate within 10 minutes in 2011 Japan, 2015 Chile and 2017 Turkey.. From the education point of view, education for tsunami is not done much in Turkey. From the protection facilities point of view, the high sea walls are constructed only in Japan. From the warning alert point of view, there is no warning system against tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea. As a result of this survey, the importance of tsunami education is shown, and evacuation tends to be delayed if dependency on facilities and alarms is too high.
SPIRALE: early warning optical space demonstrator
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Galindo, D.; Carucci, A.
2004-11-01
Thanks to its global coverage, its peacetime capabilities and its availability, ballistic missiles Early Warning (EW) space systems are identified as a key node of a global missile defence system. Since the Gulf war in 1991, several feasibility studies of such an Early Warning system have been conducted in France. The main conclusions are first that the most appropriate concept is to use infra-red (IR) sensors on geo- stationary orbit satellites and second that the required satellite performances are achievable and accessible to European industries, even if technological developments are necessary. Besides that, it was recommended to prepare the development of the EW operational system, by demonstrating its achievable performances on the basis of collected background images and available target IR signatures. This is the objective of the "EW optical space demonstrator", also named SPIRALE (this a French acronym which stands for "Preparatory IR Program for EW"). A contract has been awarded early 2004, by DGA/SPOTI (French Armament Procurement Agency), to EADS Astrium France, with a significant participation of Alcatel Space, to perform this demonstration.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Biffard, B.; Rosenberger, A.; Pirenne, B.; Valenzuela, M.; MacArthur, M.
2017-12-01
Ocean Networks Canada (ONC) operates ocean and coastal observatories on all three of Canada's coasts, and more particularly across the Cascadia subduction zone. The data are acquired, parsed, calibrated and archived by ONC's data management system (Oceans 2.0), with real-time event detection, reaction and access capabilities. As such, ONC is in a unique position to develop early warning systems for earthquakes, near- and far-field tsunamis and other events. ONC is leading the development of a system to alert southwestern British Columbia of an impending Cascadia subduction zone earthquake on behalf of the provincial government and with the support of the Canadian Federal Government. Similarly to other early earthquake warning systems, an array of accelerometers is used to detect the initial earthquake p-waves. This can provide 5-60 seconds of warning to subscribers who can then take action, such as stopping trains and surgeries, closing valves, taking cover, etc. To maximize the detection capability and the time available to react to a notification, instruments are placed both underwater and on land on Vancouver Island. A novel feature of ONC's system is, for land-based sites, the combination of real-time satellite positioning (GNSS) and accelerometer data in the calculations to improve earthquake intensity estimates. This results in higher accuracy, dynamic range and responsiveness than either type of sensor is capable of alone. P-wave detections and displacement data are sent from remote stations to a data centre that must calculate epicentre locations and magnitude. The latter are then delivered to subscribers with client software that, given their position, will calculate arrival time and intensity. All of this must occur with very high standards for latency, reliability and accuracy.
Numerical tool for tsunami risk assessment in the southern coast of Dominican Republic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Macias Sanchez, J.; Llorente Isidro, M.; Ortega, S.; Gonzalez Vida, J. M., Sr.; Castro, M. J.
2016-12-01
The southern coast of Dominican Republic is a very populated region, with several important cities including Santo Domingo, its capital. Important activities are rooted in the southern coast including tourism, industry, commercial ports, and, energy facilities, among others. According to historical reports, it has been impacted by big earthquakes accompanied by tsunamis as in Azua in 1751 and recently Pedernales in 2010, but their sources are not clearly identified. The aim of the present work is to develop a numerical tool to simulate the impact in the southern coast of the Dominican Republic of tsunamis generated in the Caribbean Sea. This tool, based on the Tsunami-HySEA model from EDANYA group (University of Malaga, Spain), could be used in the framework of a Tsunami Early Warning Systems due the very short computing times when only propagation is computed or it could be used to assess inundation impact, computing inundation with a initial 5 meter resolution. Numerical results corresponding to three theoretical sources are used to test the numerical tool.
The 2017 México Tsunami Record, Numerical Modeling and Threat Assessment in Costa Rica
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chacón-Barrantes, Silvia
2018-03-01
An M w 8.2 earthquake and tsunami occurred offshore the Pacific coast of México on 2017-09-08, at 04:49 UTC. Costa Rican tide gauges have registered a total of 21 local, regional and far-field tsunamis. The Quepos gauge registered 12 tsunamis between 1960 and 2014 before it was relocated inside a harbor by late 2014, where it registered two more tsunamis. This paper analyzes the 2017 México tsunami as recorded by the Quepos gauge. It took 2 h for the tsunami to arrive to Quepos, with a first peak height of 9.35 cm and a maximum amplitude of 18.8 cm occurring about 6 h later. As a decision support tool, this tsunami was modeled for Quepos in real time using ComMIT (Community Model Interface for Tsunami) with the finer grid having a resolution of 1 arcsec ( 30 m). However, the model did not replicate the tsunami record well, probably due to the lack of a finer and more accurate bathymetry. In 2014, the National Tsunami Monitoring System of Costa Rica (SINAMOT) was created, acting as a national tsunami warning center. The occurrence of the 2017 México tsunami raised concerns about warning dissemination mechanisms for most coastal communities in Costa Rica, due to its short travel time.
Rovero, Francesco; Ahumada, Jorge
2017-01-01
While there are well established early warning systems for a number of natural phenomena (e.g. earthquakes, catastrophic fires, tsunamis), we do not have an early warning system for biodiversity. Yet, we are losing species at an unprecedented rate, and this especially occurs in tropical rainforests, the biologically richest but most eroded biome on earth. Unfortunately, there is a chronic gap in standardized and pan-tropical data in tropical forests, affecting our capacity to monitor changes and anticipate future scenarios. The Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network was established to contribute addressing this issue, as it generates real time data to monitor long-term trends in tropical biodiversity and guide conservation practice. We present the Network and focus primarily on the Terrestrial Vertebrates protocol, that uses systematic camera trapping to detect forest mammals and birds, and secondarily on the Zone of Interaction protocol, that measures changes in the anthroposphere around the core monitoring area. With over 3 million images so far recorded, and managed using advanced information technology, TEAM has created the most important data set on tropical forest mammals globally. We provide examples of site-specific and global analyses that, combined with data on anthropogenic disturbance collected in the larger ecosystem where monitoring sites are, allowed us to understand the drivers of changes of target species and communities in space and time. We discuss the potential of this system as a candidate model towards setting up an early warning system that can effectively anticipate changes in coupled human-natural system, trigger management actions, and hence decrease the gap between research and management responses. In turn, TEAM produces robust biodiversity indicators that meet the requirements set by global policies such as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. Standardization in data collection and public sharing of data in near real time
An Evaluation of Infrastructure for Tsunami Evacuation in Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cedillos, V.; Canney, N.; Deierlein, G.; Diposaptono, S.; Geist, E. L.; Henderson, S.; Ismail, F.; Jachowski, N.; McAdoo, B. G.; Muhari, A.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Sieh, K. E.; Toth, J.; Tucker, B. E.; Wood, K.
2009-12-01
Padang has one of the world’s highest tsunami risks due to its high hazard, vulnerable terrain and population density. The current strategy to prepare for tsunamis in Padang is focused on developing early warning systems, planning evacuation routes, conducting evacuation drills, and raising local awareness. Although these are all necessary, they are insufficient. Padang’s proximity to the Sunda Trench and flat terrain make reaching safe ground impossible for much of the population. The natural warning in Padang - a strong earthquake that lasts over a minute - will be the first indicator of a potential tsunami. People will have about 30 minutes after the earthquake to reach safe ground. It is estimated that roughly 50,000 people in Padang will be unable to evacuate in that time. Given these conditions, other means to prepare for the expected tsunami must be developed. With this motivation, GeoHazards International and Stanford University’s Chapter of Engineers for a Sustainable World partnered with Indonesian organizations - Andalas University and Tsunami Alert Community in Padang, Laboratory for Earth Hazards, and the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries - in an effort to evaluate the need for and feasibility of tsunami evacuation infrastructure in Padang. Tsunami evacuation infrastructure can include earthquake-resistant bridges and evacuation structures that rise above the maximum tsunami water level, and can withstand the expected earthquake and tsunami forces. The choices for evacuation structures vary widely - new and existing buildings, evacuation towers, soil berms, elevated highways and pedestrian overpasses. This interdisciplinary project conducted a course at Stanford University, undertook several field investigations, and concluded that: (1) tsunami evacuation structures and bridges are essential to protect the people in Padang, (2) there is a need for a more thorough engineering-based evaluation than conducted to-date of the suitability of
Public Perceptions of Tsunamis and the NOAA TsunamiReady Program in Los Angeles
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rosati, A.
2010-12-01
After the devastating December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, California and other coastal states began installing "Tsunami Warning Zone" and "Evacuation Route" signs at beaches and major access roads. The geography of the Los Angeles area may not be conducive to signage alone for communication of the tsunami risk and safety precautions. Over a year after installation, most people surveyed did not know about or recognize the tsunami signs. More alarming is that many did not believe a tsunami could occur in the area even though earthquake generated waves have reached nearby beaches as recently as September 2009! UPDATE: FEB. 2010. Fifty two percent of the 147 people surveyed did not believe they would survive a natural disaster in Los Angeles. Given the unique geography of Los Angeles, how can the city and county improve the mental health of its citizens before and after a natural disaster? This poster begins to address the issues of community self-efficacy and resiliency in the face of tsunamis. Of note for future research, the data from this survey showed that most people believed climate change would increase the occurrence of tsunamis. Also, the public understanding of water inundation was disturbingly low. As scientists, it is important to understand the big picture of our research - how it is ultimately communicated, understood, and used by the public.
Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume I”
Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Tanioka, Yuichiro
2016-01-01
Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.
Observing Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances Caused by Tsunamis Using GPS TEC Measurements
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Galvan, David A.; Komjathy, Attila; Hickey, Michael; Foster, James; Mannucci, Anthony J.
2010-01-01
Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following two recent seismic events: the American Samoa earthquake of September 29, 2009, and the Chile earthquake of February 27, 2010. Fluctuations in TEC correlated in time, space, and wave properties with these tsunamis were observed in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with wavelengths and periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the tsunamis in certain locations, but not in others. Where variations are observed, the typical amplitude tends to be on the order of 1% of the background TEC value. Variations with amplitudes 0.1 - 0.2 TECU are observable with periods and timing affiliated with the tsunami. These observations are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement in some locations, though there are cases when the model predicts an observable tsunami-driven signature and none is observed. These TEC variations are not always seen when a tsunami is present, but in these two events the regions where a strong ocean tsunami was observed did coincide with clear TEC observations, while a lack of clear TEC observations coincided with smaller tsunami amplitudes. There exists the potential to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for early warning systems.
Fusion of real-time simulation, sensing, and geo-informatics in assessing tsunami impact
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koshimura, S.; Inoue, T.; Hino, R.; Ohta, Y.; Kobayashi, H.; Musa, A.; Murashima, Y.; Gokon, H.
2015-12-01
Bringing together state-of-the-art high-performance computing, remote sensing and spatial information sciences, we establish a method of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting, damage estimation and mapping to enhance disaster response. Right after a major (near field) earthquake is triggered, we perform a real-time tsunami inundation forecasting with use of high-performance computing platform (Koshimura et al., 2014). Using Tohoku University's vector supercomputer, we accomplished "10-10-10 challenge", to complete tsunami source determination in 10 minutes, tsunami inundation modeling in 10 minutes with 10 m grid resolution. Given the maximum flow depth distribution, we perform quantitative estimation of exposed population using census data and mobile phone data, and the numbers of potential death and damaged structures by applying tsunami fragility curve. After the potential tsunami-affected areas are estimated, the analysis gets focused and moves on to the "detection" phase using remote sensing. Recent advances of remote sensing technologies expand capabilities of detecting spatial extent of tsunami affected area and structural damage. Especially, a semi-automated method to estimate building damage in tsunami affected areas is developed using pre- and post-event high-resolution SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) data. The method is verified through the case studies in the 2011 Tohoku and other potential tsunami scenarios, and the prototype system development is now underway in Kochi prefecture, one of at-risk coastal city against Nankai trough earthquake. In the trial operation, we verify the capability of the method as a new tsunami early warning and response system for stakeholders and responders.
Numerical Simulation of Several Tectonic Tsunami Sources at the Caribbean Basin
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chacon-Barrantes, S. E.; Lopez, A. M.; Macias, J.; Zamora, N.; Moore, C. W.; Llorente Isidro, M.
2016-12-01
The Tsunami Hazard Assessment Working Group (WG2) of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Early Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE-EWS), has been tasked to identify tsunami sources for the Caribbean region and evaluate their effects along Caribbean coasts. A list of tectonic sources was developed and presented at the Fall 2015 AGU meeting and the WG2 is currently working on a list of non-tectonic sources. In addition, three Experts Meetings have already been held in 2016 to define worst-case, most credible scenarios for southern Hispaniola and Central America. The WG2 has been tasked to simulate these scenarios to provide an estimate of the resulting effects on coastal areas within the Caribbean. In this study we simulated tsunamis with two leading numerical models (NEOWAVE and Tsunami-HySEA) to compare results among them and report on the consequences for the Caribbean region if a tectonically-induced tsunami occurs in any of these postulated sources. The considered sources are located offshore Central America, at the North Panamá Deformed Belt (NPDB), at the South Caribbean Deformed Belt (SCDB) and around La Hispaniola Island. Results obtained in this study are critical to develop a catalog of scenarios that can be used in future CaribeWave exercises, as well as their usage for ICG/CARIBE-EWS member states as input to model tsunami inundation for their coastal locations. Data from inundation parameters are an additional step to produce tsunami evacuation maps, and develop plans and procedures to increase tsunami awareness and preparedness within the Caribbean.
Recent improvements in earthquake and tsunami monitoring in the Caribbean
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gee, L.; Green, D.; McNamara, D.; Whitmore, P.; Weaver, J.; Huang, P.; Benz, H.
2007-12-01
Following the catastrophic loss of life from the December 26, 2004, Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake and tsunami, the U.S. Government appropriated funds to improve monitoring along a major portion of vulnerable coastal regions in the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic Ocean. Partners in this project include the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN), the Seismic Research Unit of the University of the West Indies, and other collaborating institutions in the Caribbean region. As part of this effort, the USGS is coordinating with Caribbean host nations to design and deploy nine new broadband and strong-motion seismic stations. The instrumentation consists of an STS-2 seismometer, an Episensor accelerometer, and a Q330 high resolution digitizer. Six stations are currently transmitting data to the USGS National Earthquake Information Center, where the data are redistributed to the NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers, regional monitoring partners, and the IRIS Data Management Center. Operating stations include: Isla Barro Colorado, Panama; Gun Hill Barbados; Grenville, Grenada; Guantanamo Bay, Cuba; Sabaneta Dam, Dominican Republic; and Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Three additional stations in Barbuda, Grand Turks, and Jamaica will be completed during the fall of 2007. These nine stations are affiliates of the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) and complement existing GSN stations as well as regional stations. The new seismic stations improve azimuthal coverage, increase network density, and provide on-scale recording throughout the region. Complementary to this network, NOAA has placed Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) stations at sites in regions with a history of generating destructive tsunamis. Recently, NOAA completed deployment of 7 DART stations off the coasts of Montauk Pt, NY; Charleston, SC; Miami, FL; San Juan, Puerto Rico; New
Landslide susceptibility and early warning model for shallow landslide in Taiwan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, Chun-Ming; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chi, Chun-Chi; Chang, Kan-Tsun; Lee, Chyi-Tyi
2017-04-01
This study aims to development a regional susceptibility model and warning threshold as well as the establishment of early warning system in order to prevent and reduce the losses caused by rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Taiwan. For the purpose of practical application, Taiwan is divided into nearly 185,000 slope units. The susceptibility and warning threshold of each slope unit were analyzed as basic information for disaster prevention. The geological characteristics, mechanism and the occurrence time of landslides were recorded for more than 900 cases through field investigation and interview of residents in order to discuss the relationship between landslides and rainfall. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the landslide susceptibility and an I3-R24 rainfall threshold model was proposed for the early warning of landslides. The validations of recent landslide cases show that the model was suitable for the warning of regional shallow landslide and most of the cases can be warned 3 to 6 hours in advanced. We also propose a slope unit area weighted method to establish local rainfall threshold on landslide for vulnerable villages in order to improve the practical application. Validations of the local rainfall threshold also show a good agreement to the occurrence time reported by newspapers. Finally, a web based "Rainfall-induced Landslide Early Warning System" is built and connected to real-time radar rainfall data so that landslide real-time warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, susceptibility analysis, rainfall threshold
Early Warning Systems: Re-Engaging Chronic Truants
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Chorneau, Tom
2012-01-01
School attendance can be an early indicator that something is going wrong with a student. Gathering, analyzing, and acting on attendance information is a first step toward school improvement. Meanwhile, the majority of the states are moving to build and enhance what are called "early warning systems," intended to flag at-risk students during their…
Vantage point - Early warning flaws.
Swinden, Donna
2014-08-28
USING AN EARLY warning score (EWS) system should improve the detection of acutely deteriorating patients. Under such a system, a score is allocated to each of six physiological measurements including respiratory rate and oxygen saturations, which are aggregated to produce an overall score. An aggregated score of seven or higher prompts nursing staff to refer a patient for emergency assessment.
Tsunami Ready Recognition Program for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions Launched in 2015
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Hinds, K.; Aliaga, B.; Brome, A.; Lopes, R.
2015-12-01
Over 75 tsunamis have been documented in the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions over the past 500 years with 4,561 associated deaths according to the NOAA Tsunami Database. The most recent devastating tsunamis occurred in 1946 in Dominican Republic; 1865 died. With the explosive increase in residents, tourists, infrastructure, and economic activity along the coasts, the potential for human and economic loss is enormous. It has been estimated that on any day, more than 500,000 people in the Caribbean could be in harm's way just along the beaches, with hundreds of thousands more working and living in the tsunamis hazard zones. In 2005 the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission established the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG CARIBE EWS) to coordinate tsunami efforts among the 48 participating countries in territories in the region. In addition to monitoring, modeling and communication systems, one of the fundamental components of the warning system is community preparedness, readiness and resilience. Over the past 10 years 49 coastal communities in the Caribbean have been recognized as TsunamiReady® by the US National Weather Service (NWS) in the case of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands and jointly by UNESCO and NWS in the case of the non US jurisdictions of Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands. In response to the positive feedback of the implementation of TsunamiReady, the ICG CARIBE EWS in 2015 recommended the approval of the guidelines for a Community Performance Based Recognition program. It also recommended the adoption of the name "Tsunami Ready", which has been positively consulted with the NWS. Ten requirements were established for recognition and are divided among Preparedness, Mitigation and Response elements which were adapted from the proposed new US TsunamiReady guidelines and align well with emergency management functions. Both a
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schroeder, Matthias; Jankowski, Cedric; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim
2014-05-01
Thousands of numerical tsunami simulations allow the computation of inundation and run-up along the coast for vulnerable areas over the time. A so-called Matching Scenario Database (MSDB) [1] contains this large number of simulations in text file format. In order to visualize these wave propagations the scenarios have to be reprocessed automatically. In the TRIDEC project funded by the seventh Framework Programme of the European Union a Virtual Scenario Database (VSDB) and a Matching Scenario Database (MSDB) were established amongst others by the working group of the University of Bologna (UniBo) [1]. One part of TRIDEC was the developing of a new generation of a Decision Support System (DSS) for tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) [2]. A working group of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences was responsible for developing the Command and Control User Interface (CCUI) as central software application which support operator activities, incident management and message disseminations. For the integration and visualization in the CCUI, the numerical tsunami simulations from MSDB must be converted into the shapefiles format. The usage of shapefiles enables a much easier integration into standard Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Since also the CCUI is based on two widely used open source products (GeoTools library and uDig), whereby the integration of shapefiles is provided by these libraries a priori. In this case, for an example area around the Western Iberian margin several thousand tsunami variations were processed. Due to the mass of data only a program-controlled process was conceivable. In order to optimize the computing efforts and operating time the use of an existing GFZ High Performance Computing Cluster (HPC) had been chosen. Thus, a geospatial software was sought after that is capable for parallel processing. The FOSS tool Geospatial Data Abstraction Library (GDAL/OGR) was used to match the coordinates with the wave heights and generates the
The FASTER Approach: A New Tool for Calculating Real-Time Tsunami Flood Hazards
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilson, R. I.; Cross, A.; Johnson, L.; Miller, K.; Nicolini, T.; Whitmore, P.
2014-12-01
In the aftermath of the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan tsunamis that struck the California coastline, emergency managers requested that the state tsunami program provide more detailed information about the flood potential of distant-source tsunamis well ahead of their arrival time. The main issue is that existing tsunami evacuation plans call for evacuation of the predetermined "worst-case" tsunami evacuation zone (typically at a 30- to 50-foot elevation) during any "Warning" level event; the alternative is to not call an evacuation at all. A solution to provide more detailed information for secondary evacuation zones has been the development of tsunami evacuation "playbooks" to plan for tsunami scenarios of various sizes and source locations. To determine a recommended level of evacuation during a distant-source tsunami, an analytical tool has been developed called the "FASTER" approach, an acronym for factors that influence the tsunami flood hazard for a community: Forecast Amplitude, Storm, Tides, Error in forecast, and the Run-up potential. Within the first couple hours after a tsunami is generated, the National Tsunami Warning Center provides tsunami forecast amplitudes and arrival times for approximately 60 coastal locations in California. At the same time, the regional NOAA Weather Forecast Offices in the state calculate the forecasted coastal storm and tidal conditions that will influence tsunami flooding. Providing added conservatism in calculating tsunami flood potential, we include an error factor of 30% for the forecast amplitude, which is based on observed forecast errors during recent events, and a site specific run-up factor which is calculated from the existing state tsunami modeling database. The factors are added together into a cumulative FASTER flood potential value for the first five hours of tsunami activity and used to select the appropriate tsunami phase evacuation "playbook" which is provided to each coastal community shortly after the forecast
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zosseder, K.; Post, J.; Steinmetz, T.; Wegscheider, S.; Strunz, G.
2009-04-01
Indonesia is located at one of the most active geological subduction zones in the world. Following the most recent seaquakes and their subsequent tsunamis in December 2004 and July 2006 it is expected that also in the near future tsunamis are likely to occur due to increased tectonic tensions leading to abrupt vertical seafloor alterations after a century of relative tectonic silence. To face this devastating threat tsunami hazard maps are very important as base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. In terms of a tsunami impact the hazard assessment is mostly covered by numerical modelling because the model results normally offer the most precise database for a hazard analysis as they include spatially distributed data and their influence to the hydraulic dynamics. Generally a model result gives a probability for the intensity distribution of a tsunami at the coast (or run up) and the spatial distribution of the maximum inundation area depending on the location and magnitude of the tsunami source used. The boundary condition of the source used for the model is mostly chosen by a worst case approach. Hence the location and magnitude which are likely to occur and which are assumed to generate the worst impact are used to predict the impact at a specific area. But for a tsunami hazard assessment covering a large coastal area, as it is demanded in the GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project in which the present work is embedded, this approach is not practicable because a lot of tsunami sources can cause an impact at the coast and must be considered. Thus a multi-scenario tsunami model approach is developed to provide a reliable hazard assessment covering large areas. For the Indonesian Early Warning System many tsunami scenarios were modelled by the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) at different probable tsunami sources and with different magnitudes along the Sunda Trench. Every modelled scenario delivers the spatial distribution of
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hagerty, M. T.; Lomax, A.; Hellman, S. B.; Whitmore, P.; Weinstein, S.; Hirshorn, B. F.; Knight, W. R.
2015-12-01
Tsunami warning centers must rapidly decide whether an earthquake is likely to generate a destructive tsunami in order to issue a tsunami warning quickly after a large event. For very large events (Mw > 8 or so), magnitude and location alone are sufficient to warrant an alert. However, for events of smaller magnitude (e.g., Mw ~ 7.5), particularly for so-called "tsunami earthquakes", magnitude alone is insufficient to issue an alert and other measurements must be rapidly made and used to assess tsunamigenic potential. The Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) project to update and standardize the earthquake and tsunami monitoring systems currently employed at the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers in Ewa Beach, Hawaii (PTWC) and Palmer, Alaska (NTWC). We (ISTI) are responsible for implementing the seismic monitoring components in this new system, including real-time seismic data collection and seismic processing. The seismic data processor includes a variety of methods aimed at real-time discrimination of tsunamigenic events, including: Mwp, Me, slowness (Theta), W-phase, mantle magnitude (Mm), array processing and finite-fault inversion. In addition, it contains the ability to designate earthquake scenarios and play the resulting synthetic seismograms through the processing system. Thus, it is also a convenient tool that integrates research and monitoring and may be used to calibrate and tune the real-time monitoring system. Here we show results of the automated processing system for a large dataset of subduction zone earthquakes containing recent tsunami earthquakes and we examine the accuracy of the various discrimation methods and discuss issues related to their successful real-time application.
Challenges for U.S. tsunami preparedness; NASA's Genesis crash blamed on design flaw
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zielinski, Sarah
2006-06-01
Challenges for U.S. tsunami preparednessDespite recent improvements in U.S. tsunamipreparedness, greater efforts are neededin tsunami hazard assessment, detection, warning,and mitigation, according to a 5 June reportfrom the U.S. Government AccountabilityOffice (GAO).Eos 87(21), 2006).
A Sustainable Early Warning System for Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Management
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, T.; Tung, C.; Chung, N.
2007-12-01
In this era of rapid social and technological change leading to interesting life complexity and environmental displacement, both positive and negative effects among ecosystems call for a balance in which there are impacts by climate changes. Early warning systems for climate change impacts are necessary in order to allow society as a whole to properly and usefully assimilate the masses of new information and knowledge. Therefore, our research addresses to build up a sustainable early warning mechanism. The main goal is to mitigate the cumulative impacts on the environment of climate change and enhance adaptive capacities. An effective early warning system has been proven for protection. However, there is a problem that estimate future climate changes would be faced with high uncertainty. In general, take estimations for climate change impacts would use the data from General Circulation Models and take the analysis as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared. We follow the course of the method for analyzing climate change impacts and attempt to accomplish the sustainable early warning system for water quality management. Climate changes impact not only on individual situation but on short-term variation and long-term gradually changes. This kind characteristic should adopt the suitable warning system for long-term formulation and short- term operation. To continue the on-going research of the long-term early warning system for climate change impacts on water quality management, the short-term early warning system is established by using local observation data for reappraising the warning issue. The combination of long-term and short-term system can provide more circumstantial details. In Taiwan, a number of studies have revealed that climate change impacts on water quality, especially in arid period, the concentration of biological oxygen demand may turn into worse. Rapid population growth would also inflict injury on its assimilative capacity to
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lavigne, Franck; Grancher, Delphine; Goeldner-Gianella, Lydie; Karanci, Nuray; Dogulu, Nilay; Kanoglu, Utku; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano; Papageorgiou, Antonia; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos; Constantin, Angela; Moldovan, Iren; El Mouraouah, Azelarab; Benchekroun, Sabah; Birouk, Abdelouahad
2016-04-01
Understanding social vulnerability to tsunamis provides risk managers with the required information to determine whether individuals have the capacity to evacuate, and therefore to take mitigation measures to protect their communities. In the frame of the EU programme ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), we conducted a questionnaire-based survey among 1,661 people from 41 nationalities living in, working in, or visiting 10 Test Sites from 9 different countries. The questions, which have been translated in 11 languages, focused on tsunami hazard awareness, risk perception, and knowledge of the existing warning systems. Our results confirm our initial hypothesis that low attention is paid in Europe to tsunami risk. Among all type of hazards, either natural or not, tsunami rank first in only one site (Lyngen fjord in Norway), rank third in 3 other sites (Eforie Nord in Romania, Nice and Istanbul), rank 4 in Gulluk Bay, 5 in Sines and Heraklion, and 10 in Siracusa (Sicily) and San Jordi (Balearic Islands). Whatever the respondent's status (i.e. local population, local authorities, or tourists), earthquakes and drawdown of the sea are cited as tsunami warning signs by 43% and 39% of the respondents, respectively. Therefore self-evacuation is not expected for more than half of the population. Considering that most European countries have no early warning system for tsunamis, a disaster is likely to happen in any coastal area exposed to this specific hazard. Furthermore, knowledge of past tsunami events is also very limited: only 22% of people stated that a tsunami has occurred in the past, whereas a deadly tsunami occurs every century in the Mediterranean Sea (e.g. in AD 365, 1660, 1672 or 1956 in the eastern part, 1908, 1979 or 2003 in the western part), and high tsunami waves devastated the Portugal and Moroccan coasts in 1755. Despite this lack of knowledge and awareness of past events, 62% of the respondents think that the site of
Ionospheric Method of Detecting Tsunami-Generating Earthquakes.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Najita, Kazutoshi; Yuen, Paul C.
1978-01-01
Reviews the earthquake phenomenon and its possible relation to ionospheric disturbances. Discusses the basic physical principles involved and the methods upon which instrumentation is being developed for possible use in a tsunami disaster warning system. (GA)
Constructing early warning information release system in towns enterprise clean production
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yuwen, Huixin; He, Xueqiu; Qian, Xinming; Yuan, Mengqi
2017-08-01
China’s industry boom has not only brought unprecedented prosperity, but also caused the gradual depletion of various resources and the worsening of the natural environment. Experts admit that China is facing serious environmental problem, but they believe that they can seek a new path to overcome it through joint efforts. Early warning information release and clean production are the important concepts in addressing the imminent crisis. Early warning information release system can monitor and forecast the risk that affects the clean production. The author drawn the experiences and lessons from developed countries, combined with China’s reality, put forward countermeasures and suggestions about constructing early warning information release system in process of Chinese town-scaled enterprises clean production.
Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.
2016-01-01
A schematic of the components of regional early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides is herein proposed, based on a clear distinction between warning models and warning systems. According to this framework an early warning system comprises a warning model as well as a monitoring and warning strategy, a communication strategy and an emergency plan. The paper proposes the evaluation of regional landslide warning models by means of an original approach, called the "event, duration matrix, performance" (EDuMaP) method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the events, i.e., landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a duration matrix, whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model performance by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step the analyst identifies and classifies the landslide and warning events, according to their spatial and temporal characteristics, by means of a number of model parameters. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix with a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warning data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).
Accuracy of a pediatric early warning score in the recognition of clinical deterioration.
Miranda, Juliana de Oliveira Freitas; Camargo, Climene Laura de; Nascimento, Carlito Lopes; Portela, Daniel Sales; Monaghan, Alan
2017-07-10
to evaluate the accuracy of the version of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score translated and adapted for the Brazilian context, in the recognition of clinical deterioration. a diagnostic test study to measure the accuracy of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, in relation to a reference standard. The sample consisted of 271 children, aged 0 to 10 years, blindly evaluated by a nurse and a physician, specialists in pediatrics, with interval of 5 to 10 minutes between the evaluations, for the application of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context and of the reference standard. The data were processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and VassarStats.net programs. The performance of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context was evaluated through the indicators of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, area under the ROC curve, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context showed sensitivity of 73.9%, specificity of 95.5%, positive predictive value of 73.3%, negative predictive value of 94.7%, area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of 91.9% and the positive post-test probability was 80%. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, presented good performance, considered valid for the recognition of clinical deterioration warning signs of the children studied. avaliar a acurácia da versão traduzida e adaptada do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para o contexto brasileiro, no reconhecimento da deterioração clínica. estudo de teste diagnóstico para medir a acurácia do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score, para o contexto brasileiro, em relação a um padrão de referência. A amostra foi composta por 271 crianças de 0 a 10 anos, avaliadas de forma cega por uma enfermeira e um médico, especialistas em pediatria, com
Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.
2015-10-01
The paper proposes the evaluation of the technical performance of a regional landslide early warning system by means of an original approach, called EDuMaP method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the Events (E), i.e. landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a Duration Matrix (DuMa), whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model Performance (P) by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step, the analyst takes into account the features of the warning model by means of ten input parameters, which are used to identify and classify landslide and warning events according to their spatial and temporal characteristics. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix having a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The proposed method is based on a framework clearly distinguishing between local and regional landslide early warning systems as well as among correlation laws, warning models and warning systems. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warnings data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jamelot, Anthony; Reymond, Dominique; Savigny, Jonathan; Hyvernaud, Olivier
2016-04-01
The tsunami generated by the earthquake of magnitude Mw=8.2 near the coast of central Chile on the 16th September 2015 was observed on 7 tide gauges distributed over the five archipelagoes composing French Polynesia, a territory as large as Europe. We'll sum up all the observations of the tsunami and the field survey done in Tahiti (Society islands) and Hiva-Oa (Marquesas islands) to evaluate the preliminary tsunami forecast tool (MERIT) and the detailed tsunami forecast tool (COASTER) of the French Polynesian Tsunami Warning Center. The preliminary tool forecasted a maximal tsunami height between 0.5m to 2.3 m all over the Marquesas Islands. But only the island of Hiva-Oa had a tsunami forecast greater than 1 meter especially in the Tahauku Bay well known for its local response due to its resonance properties. In Tahauku bay, the tide gauge located at the entrance of the bay recorded a maximal tsunami height above mean sea level ~ 1.7 m; and we measured at the bottom of the bay a run-up about 2.8 m at 388 m inland from the shoreline in the river bed, and a run-up of 2.5 m located 155 m inland. The multi-grid simulation over Tahiti was done one hour after the origin time of the earthquake and gave a very localized tsunami impact on the North shore. Our forecast indicated an inundation about 10 m inland that lead Civil Authorities to evacuate 6 houses. It was the first operational use of this new fine grid covering the north part of Tahiti that is not protected by a coral reef. So we were attentive to the feed back of the alert that confirm the forecast of the maximal height arrival 1 hour after the first arrival. The tsunami warning system forecast well strong impact as well as low impact as long as we have an early robust description of the seismic parameters and fine grids about 10 m spatial resolution to simulate tsunami impact. In January of 2016 we are able to forecast tsunami heights for 72 points located over 35 islands of French Polynesia.
Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Dick, Anna; Kirsch, Thomas D.
2013-01-01
Introduction. Although rare, tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable loss of life and injury as well as widespread damage to the natural and built environments. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of tsunamis on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of tsunamis were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1900 to mid 2009 of tsunami events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review to October 2012 of publications. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between tsunami mortality and characteristics using STATA 11. Findings. There were 255,195 deaths (range 252,619-275,784) and 48,462 injuries (range 45,466-51,457) as a result of tsunamis from 1900 to 2009. The majority of deaths (89%) and injuries reported during this time period were attributed to a single event –the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Findings from the systematic literature review indicate that the primary cause of tsunami-related mortality is drowning, and that females, children and the elderly are at increased mortality risk. The few studies that reported on tsunami-related injury suggest that males and young adults are at increased injury-risk. Conclusions. Early warning systems may help mitigate tsunami-related loss of life. PMID:23857277
Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Dick, Anna; Kirsch, Thomas D
2013-04-16
Introduction. Although rare, tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable loss of life and injury as well as widespread damage to the natural and built environments. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of tsunamis on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters. Methods. Data on the impact of tsunamis were compiled using two methods, a historical review from 1900 to mid 2009 of tsunami events from multiple databases and a systematic literature review to October 2012 of publications. Analysis included descriptive statistics and bivariate tests for associations between tsunami mortality and characteristics using STATA 11. Findings. There were 255,195 deaths (range 252,619-275,784) and 48,462 injuries (range 45,466-51,457) as a result of tsunamis from 1900 to 2009. The majority of deaths (89%) and injuries reported during this time period were attributed to a single event -the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Findings from the systematic literature review indicate that the primary cause of tsunami-related mortality is drowning, and that females, children and the elderly are at increased mortality risk. The few studies that reported on tsunami-related injury suggest that males and young adults are at increased injury-risk. Conclusions. Early warning systems may help mitigate tsunami-related loss of life.
Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Erdik, M. O.; Fahjan, Y.; Ozel, O.; Alcik, H.; Aydin, M.; Gul, M.
2003-12-01
As part of the preparations for the future earthquake in Istanbul a Rapid Response and Early Warning system in the metropolitan area is in operation. For the Early Warning system ten strong motion stations were installed as close as possible to the fault zone. Continuous on-line data from these stations via digital radio modem provide early warning for potentially disastrous earthquakes. Considering the complexity of fault rupture and the short fault distances involved, a simple and robust Early Warning algorithm, based on the exceedance of specified threshold time domain amplitude levels is implemented. The band-pass filtered accelerations and the cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) are compared with specified threshold levels. When any acceleration or CAV (on any channel) in a given station exceeds specific threshold values it is considered a vote. Whenever we have 2 station votes within selectable time interval, after the first vote, the first alarm is declared. In order to specify the appropriate threshold levels a data set of near field strong ground motions records form Turkey and the world has been analyzed. Correlations among these thresholds in terms of the epicenter distance the magnitude of the earthquake have been studied. The encrypted early warning signals will be communicated to the respective end users by UHF systems through a "service provider" company. The users of the early warning signal will be power and gas companies, nuclear research facilities, critical chemical factories, subway system and several high-rise buildings. Depending on the location of the earthquake (initiation of fault rupture) and the recipient facility the alarm time can be as high as about 8s. For the rapid response system one hundred 18 bit-resolution strong motion accelerometers were placed in quasi-free field locations (basement of small buildings) in the populated areas of the city, within an area of approximately 50x30km, to constitute a network that will enable early
49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations
Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR
2011-10-01
... 49 Transportation 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...
49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations
Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR
2012-10-01
... 49 Transportation 6 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...
49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-10-01
... 49 Transportation 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...
49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations
Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR
2013-10-01
... 49 Transportation 6 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...
49 CFR Appendix C to Part 512 - Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations
Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR
2014-10-01
... 49 Transportation 6 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations C Appendix C to Part 512 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL.... 512, App. C Appendix C to Part 512—Early Warning Reporting Class Determinations (a) The Chief Counsel...
Venugopal, M.; Roy, D.; Rajendran, K.; Guillas, S.; Dias, F.
2017-01-01
Numerical inversions for earthquake source parameters from tsunami wave data usually incorporate subjective elements to stabilize the search. In addition, noisy and possibly insufficient data result in instability and non-uniqueness in most deterministic inversions, which are barely acknowledged. Here, we employ the satellite altimetry data for the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman tsunami event to invert the source parameters. We also include kinematic parameters that improve the description of tsunami generation and propagation, especially near the source. Using a finite fault model that represents the extent of rupture and the geometry of the trench, we perform a new type of nonlinear joint inversion of the slips, rupture velocities and rise times with minimal a priori constraints. Despite persistently good waveform fits, large uncertainties in the joint parameter distribution constitute a remarkable feature of the inversion. These uncertainties suggest that objective inversion strategies should incorporate more sophisticated physical models of seabed deformation in order to significantly improve the performance of early warning systems. PMID:28989311
Gopinathan, D; Venugopal, M; Roy, D; Rajendran, K; Guillas, S; Dias, F
2017-09-01
Numerical inversions for earthquake source parameters from tsunami wave data usually incorporate subjective elements to stabilize the search. In addition, noisy and possibly insufficient data result in instability and non-uniqueness in most deterministic inversions, which are barely acknowledged. Here, we employ the satellite altimetry data for the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami event to invert the source parameters. We also include kinematic parameters that improve the description of tsunami generation and propagation, especially near the source. Using a finite fault model that represents the extent of rupture and the geometry of the trench, we perform a new type of nonlinear joint inversion of the slips, rupture velocities and rise times with minimal a priori constraints. Despite persistently good waveform fits, large uncertainties in the joint parameter distribution constitute a remarkable feature of the inversion. These uncertainties suggest that objective inversion strategies should incorporate more sophisticated physical models of seabed deformation in order to significantly improve the performance of early warning systems.
Anderson, Ian
2016-03-01
There are several secondary care early warning scores which alert for severe illness including sepsis. None are specifically adjusted for primary care. A Primary Health Early Warning Score (PHEWS) is proposed which incorporates practical parameters from both secondary and primary care.
Forests and Phenology: Designing the Early Warning System to Understand Forest Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pierce, T.; Phillips, M. B.; Hargrove, W. W.; Dobson, G.; Hicks, J.; Hutchins, M.; Lichtenstein, K.
2010-12-01
Vegetative phenology is the study of plant development and changes with the seasons, such as the greening-up and browning-down of forests, and how these events are influenced by variations in climate. A National Phenology Data Set, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite images covering 2002 through 2009, is now available from work by NASA, the US Forest Service, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This new data set provides an easily interpretable product useful for detecting changes to the landscape due to long-term factors such as climate change, as well as finding areas affected by short-term forest threats such as insects or disease. The Early Warning System (EWS) is a toolset being developed by the US Forest Service and the University of North Carolina-Asheville to support distribution and use of the National Phenology Data Set. The Early Warning System will help research scientists, US Forest Service personnel, forest and natural resources managers, decision makers, and the public in the use of phenology data to better understand unexpected change within our nation’s forests. These changes could have multiple natural sources such as insects, disease, or storm damage, or may be due to human-induced events, like thinning, harvest, forest conversion to agriculture, or residential and commercial use. The primary goal of the Early Warning System is to provide a seamless integration between monitoring, detection, early warning and prediction of these forest disturbances as observed through phenological data. The system consists of PC and web-based components that are structured to support four user stages of increasing knowledge and data sophistication. Building Literacy: This stage of the Early Warning System educates potential users about the system, why the system should be used, and the fundamentals about the data the system uses. The channels for this education include a website, interactive tutorials, pamphlets, and other technology
Early Warning Look Ahead Metrics: The Percent Milestone Backlog Metric
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shinn, Stephen A.; Anderson, Timothy P.
2017-01-01
All complex development projects experience delays and corresponding backlogs of their project control milestones during their acquisition lifecycles. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) teamed with The Aerospace Corporation (Aerospace) to develop a collection of Early Warning Look Ahead metrics that would provide GSFC leadership with some independent indication of the programmatic health of GSFC flight projects. As part of the collection of Early Warning Look Ahead metrics, the Percent Milestone Backlog metric is particularly revealing, and has utility as a stand-alone execution performance monitoring tool. This paper describes the purpose, development methodology, and utility of the Percent Milestone Backlog metric. The other four Early Warning Look Ahead metrics are also briefly discussed. Finally, an example of the use of the Percent Milestone Backlog metric in providing actionable insight is described, along with examples of its potential use in other commodities.
Sepsis in Obstetrics: Clinical Features and Early Warning Tools.
Parfitt, Sheryl E; Bogat, Mary L; Hering, Sandra L; Ottley, Charlotte; Roth, Cheryl
Morbidity and mortality associated with sepsis has gained widespread attention on a local, state, and national level, yet, it remains a complicated disorder that can be difficult to identify in a timely manner. Sepsis in obstetric patients further complicates the diagnosis as alterations in physiology related to pregnancy can mask sepsis indicators normally seen in the general population. If early signs of sepsis go unrecognized, septic shock can develop, leading to organ dysfunction and potential death. Maternal early warning tools have been designed to assist clinicians in recognizing early indications of illness. Through use of clinical pathway-specific tools, disease processes may be detected early, subsequently benefitting patients with aggressive treatment management and intervention.This article is the second in a series of three that discuss the importance of sepsis and septic shock in pregnancy. Risk factors, causes of sepsis, signs and symptoms, and maternal early warning tools are discussed.
Short National Early Warning Score - Developing a Modified Early Warning Score.
Luís, Leandro; Nunes, Carla
2017-12-11
Early Warning Score (EWS) systems have been developed for detecting hospital patients clinical deterioration. Many studies show that a National Early Warning Score (NEWS) performs well in discriminating survival from death in acute medical and surgical hospital wards. NEWS is validated for Portugal and is available for use. A simpler EWS system may help to reduce the risk of error, as well as increase clinician compliance with the tool. The aim of the study was to evaluate whether a simplified NEWS model will improve use and data collection. We evaluated the ability of single and aggregated parameters from the NEWS model to detect patients' clinical deterioration in the 24h prior to an outcome. There were 2 possible outcomes: Survival vs Unanticipated intensive care unit admission or death. We used binary logistic regression models and Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves (ROC) to evaluate the parameters' performance in discriminating among the outcomes for a sample of patients from 6 Portuguese hospital wards. NEWS presented an excellent discriminating capability (Area under the Curve of ROC (AUCROC)=0.944). Temperature and systolic blood pressure (SBP) parameters did not contribute significantly to the model. We developed two different models, one without temperature, and the other by removing temperature and SBP (M2). Both models had an excellent discriminating capability (AUCROC: 0.965; 0.903, respectively) and a good predictive power in the optimum threshold of the ROC curve. The 3 models revealed similar discriminant capabilities. Although the use of SBP is not clearly evident in the identification of clinical deterioration, it is recognized as an important vital sign. We recommend the use of the first new model, as its simplicity may help to improve adherence and use by health care workers. Copyright © 2017 Australian College of Critical Care Nurses Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.
2017-07-01
Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.
Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume II"
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.
2017-08-01
Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.
DiNicolantonio, James J; Serebruany, Victor L; Tomek, Ales
2013-10-03
Ticagrelor, a novel reversible antiplatelet agent, has a black box warning to avoid maintenance doses of aspirin>100mg. However, a significant ticagrelor-early percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) interaction exists. To discuss the inappropriateness of the black box warning for aspirin doses>100mg with ticagrelor and the appropriateness (and need) for a black box warning for ticagrelor patients needing early (within 24 hours of randomization) PCI. The FDA Complete Response Review for ticagrelor indicates that aspirin doses ≥ 300 mg/daily was not a significant interaction. In the ticagrelor-aspirin ≥ 300 mg cohort, all-cause mortality (through study end) and cardiovascular (CV) mortality (through study end) were not significantly increased (HR=1.27; 95% CI, 0.84-1.93, p=0.262 and HR=1.39; 95% CI:0.87-2.2, p=0.170), respectively. However, in patients treated with early (within 24 hours) PCI, ticagrelor significantly increased all-cause mortality (30 day: HR=1.89; 95% CI: 1.26-2.81, p=0.002, and through study end, HR=1.41; 95% CI,1.08-1.84, p=0.012) and increased CV mortality (30 day: HR=1.31; 95% CI: 0.97-1.77, p=0.075, and through study end, HR=1.35; 95% CI, 0.995-1.82, p=0.054) compared to clopidogrel. Early-PCI was more prevalent in the US versus outside-US regions (61% versus 49%). The black box warning for the use of maintenance aspirin doses over 100mg/daily with ticagrelor is inappropriate and ignores the more important, credible, and highly significant ticagrelor-early PCI adverse interaction in PLATO. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dengler, L.; Henderson, C.; Larkin, D.; Nicolini, T.; Ozaki, V.
2012-12-01
The Northern California counties of Del Norte, Humboldt, and Mendocino account for over 30% of California's coastline and is one of the most seismically active areas of the contiguous 48 states. The region is at risk from earthquakes located on- and offshore and from tsunamis generated locally from faults associated with the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) and from distant sources elsewhere in the Pacific. In 1995 the California Geological Survey (CGS) published a scenario for a CSZ earthquake that included both strong ground shaking effects and a tsunami. As a result of the scenario, the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of government agencies, tribes, service groups, academia and the private sector, was formed to coordinate and promote earthquake and tsunami hazard awareness and mitigation in the three-county region. The RCTWG and its member agencies projects include education/outreach products and programs, tsunami hazard mapping, signage and siren planning. Since 2008, RCTWG has worked with the California Emergency Management Agency (Cal EMA) in conducting tsunami warning communications tests on the North Coast. In 2007, RCTWG members helped develop and carry out the first tsunami training exercise at FEMA's Emergency Management Institute in Emmitsburg, MD. The RCTWG has facilitated numerous multi-agency, multi-discipline coordinated exercises, and RCTWG county tsunami response plans have been a model for other regions of the state and country. Eight North Coast communities have been recognized as TsunamiReady by the National Weather Service, including the first National Park the first State Park and only tribe in California to be so recognized. Over 500 tsunami hazard zone signs have been posted in the RCTWG region since 2008. Eight assessment surveys from 1993 to 2010 have tracked preparedness actions and personal awareness of earthquake and tsunami hazards in the county and additional surveys have tracked public awareness and tourist
Tsunami Modeling and Prediction Using a Data Assimilation Technique with Kalman Filters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barnier, G.; Dunham, E. M.
2016-12-01
Earthquake-induced tsunamis cause dramatic damages along densely populated coastlines. It is difficult to predict and anticipate tsunami waves in advance, but if the earthquake occurs far enough from the coast, there may be enough time to evacuate the zones at risk. Therefore, any real-time information on the tsunami wavefield (as it propagates towards the coast) is extremely valuable for early warning systems. After the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, a dense tsunami-monitoring network (S-net) based on cabled ocean-bottom pressure sensors has been deployed along the Pacific coast in Northeastern Japan. Maeda et al. (GRL, 2015) introduced a data assimilation technique to reconstruct the tsunami wavefield in real time by combining numerical solution of the shallow water wave equations with additional terms penalizing the numerical solution for not matching observations. The penalty or gain matrix is determined though optimal interpolation and is independent of time. Here we explore a related data assimilation approach using the Kalman filter method to evolve the gain matrix. While more computationally expensive, the Kalman filter approach potentially provides more accurate reconstructions. We test our method on a 1D tsunami model derived from the Kozdon and Dunham (EPSL, 2014) dynamic rupture simulations of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. For appropriate choices of model and data covariance matrices, the method reconstructs the tsunami wavefield prior to wave arrival at the coast. We plan to compare the Kalman filter method to the optimal interpolation method developed by Maeda et al. (GRL, 2015) and then to implement the method for 2D.
Organizing Schools to Address Early Warning Indicators (EWIs): Common Practices and Challenges
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Davis, Marcia; Herzog, Liza; Legters, Nettie
2013-01-01
An early warning system is an intentional process whereby school personnel collectively analyze student data to monitor students at risk of falling off track for graduation and to provide the interventions and resources to intervene. We studied the process of monitoring the early warning indicators and implementing interventions to ascertain…
The quest for wisdom: lessons from 17 tsunamis, 2004-2014.
Okal, Emile A
2015-10-28
Since the catastrophic Sumatra-Andaman tsunami took place in 2004, 16 other tsunamis have resulted in significant damage and 14 in casualties. We review the fundamental changes that have affected our command of tsunami issues as scientists, engineers and decision-makers, in the quest for improved wisdom in this respect. While several scientific paradigms have had to be altered or abandoned, new algorithms, e.g. the W seismic phase and real-time processing of fast-arriving seismic P waves, give us more powerful tools to estimate in real time the tsunamigenic character of an earthquake. We assign to each event a 'wisdom index' based on the warning issued (or not) during the event, and on the response of the population. While this approach is admittedly subjective, it clearly shows several robust trends: (i) we have made significant progress in our command of far-field warning, with only three casualties in the past 10 years; (ii) self-evacuation by educated populations in the near field is a key element of successful tsunami mitigation; (iii) there remains a significant cacophony between the scientific community and decision-makers in industry and government as documented during the 2010 Maule and 2011 Tohoku events; and (iv) the so-called 'tsunami earthquakes' generating larger tsunamis than expected from the size of their seismic source persist as a fundamental challenge, despite scientific progress towards characterizing these events in real time. © 2015 The Author(s).
Tsunami Preparedness Along the U.S. West Coast (video)
Filmed and edited by: Loeffler, Kurt; Gesell, Justine
2010-01-01
Tsunamis are a constant threat to the coasts of our world. Although tsunamis are infrequent along the West coast of the United States, it is possible and necessary to prepare for potential tsunami hazards to minimize loss of life and property. Community awareness programs are important, as they strive to create an informed society by providing education and training. This video about tsunami preparedness along the West coast distinguishes between a local tsunami and a distant event and focuses on the specific needs of each region. It offers guidelines for correct tsunami response and community preparedness from local emergency managers, first-responders, and leading experts on tsunami hazards and warnings, who have been working on ways of making the tsunami affected regions safer for the people and communities on a long-term basis. This video was produced by the US Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA), Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI), Washington Emergency Management Division (EMD), Marin Office of Emergency Services, and Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bernard, E. N.; Behn, R. R.; Hebenstreit, G. T.; Gonzalez, F. I.; Krumpe, P.; Lander, J. F.; Lorca, E.; McManamon, P. M.; Milburn, H. B.
Rapid onset natural hazards have claimed more than 2.8 million lives worldwide in the past 20 years. This category includes such events as earthquakes, landslides, hurricanes, tornados, floods, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and tsunamis. Effective hazard mitigation is particularly difficult in such cases, since the time available to issue warnings can be very short or even nonexistent. This paper presents the concept of a local warning system that exploits and integrates the existing technologies of risk evaluation, environmental measurement, and telecommunications. We describe Project THRUST, a successful implementation of this general, systematic approach to tsunamis. The general approach includes pre-event emergency planning, real-time hazard assessment, and rapid warning via satellite communication links.
Including trait-based early warning signals helps predict population collapse
Clements, Christopher F.; Ozgul, Arpat
2016-01-01
Foreseeing population collapse is an on-going target in ecology, and this has led to the development of early warning signals based on expected changes in leading indicators before a bifurcation. Such signals have been sought for in abundance time-series data on a population of interest, with varying degrees of success. Here we move beyond these established methods by including parallel time-series data of abundance and fitness-related trait dynamics. Using data from a microcosm experiment, we show that including information on the dynamics of phenotypic traits such as body size into composite early warning indices can produce more accurate inferences of whether a population is approaching a critical transition than using abundance time-series alone. By including fitness-related trait information alongside traditional abundance-based early warning signals in a single metric of risk, our generalizable approach provides a powerful new way to assess what populations may be on the verge of collapse. PMID:27009968
Liu, Yan; Xu, Zhen-Jun
2013-01-01
As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR), this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods' effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established. PMID:24191134
Liu, Yan; Yi, Ting-Hua; Xu, Zhen-Jun
2013-01-01
As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR), this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods' effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sardina, V.; Koyanagi, K. K.; Walsh, D.; Becker, N. C.; McCreery, C.
2015-12-01
The PTWC functions not only as official international tsunami warning center (TWC) for nations with coasts around the Pacific rim, the Caribbean, and other regions of the world, but also as the local TWC for the State of Hawaii. The PTWC began sending local tsunami messages to HI-EMA only since September, 2003. As part of its routine operations, the PTWC strives to send a local tsunami message product for any Hawaii earthquake with a 4.0 magnitude or larger within five minutes of origin time. To evaluate PTWC's performance in that regard, however, we must first compile a suitable local tsunami bulletins' database. For this purpose, we scanned all the available logs for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) communications' circuit between 2003 and 2015 and retrieved 104 local bulletins. We parsed these bulletins and extracted the parametric data needed to evaluate PTWC's performance in terms of essential statistics such as message delay time, epicenter offsets, and magnitude residuals as compared with more authoritative earthquake source parametrizations. To that end, we cross-validated 88 of these seismic events having magnitudes between 2.8 and 6.7 with the corresponding source parameters obtained from the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) and the National Earthquake Information Center's (NEIC) online catalog. Analysis of events with magnitude 4.0 or larger gives a median message delay time of 3 minutes and 33 seconds, a median epicentral offset of 3.2 km, and a median magnitude residual of 0.2 unit. Several message delay outliers exist due to the fact that PTWC has sent local tsunami information statements (TIS) for felt events with magnitudes as small as 2.8 located west of the Big Island. Routine use of a synthetic Wood-Anderson magnitude since the end of 2012 appears to have brought consistency to PTWC's local magnitude estimates and a reduction in the message delays. Station site corrections, a refined attenuation model, and optimization of the peak
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fauzan Zakki, Ahmad; Suharto; Windyandari, Aulia
2018-03-01
Several attempts have been made to reduce the risk of tsunami disasters such as the development of early warning systems, evacuation procedures training, coastal protection and coastal spatial planning. Although many efforts to mitigate the impact of the tsunami in Indonesia was made, no one has developed a portable disaster rescue vehicle/shelter as well as a lifeboat on ships and offshore building, which is always available when a disaster occurs. The aim of the paper is to evaluate the performance of cone capsule shaped hull form that would be used for the portable tsunami lifeboat. The investigation of the boat resistance, intact stability, and seakeeping characteristics was made. The numerical analysis results indicate that the cone capsule is reliable as an alternative hull form for the portable tsunami lifeboat.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gailler, Audrey; Hébert, Hélène; Loevenbruck, Anne
2013-04-01
Improvements in the availability of sea-level observations and advances in numerical modeling techniques are increasing the potential for tsunami warnings to be based on numerical model forecasts. Numerical tsunami propagation and inundation models are well developed and have now reached an impressive level of accuracy, especially in locations such as harbors where the tsunami waves are mostly amplified. In the framework of tsunami warning under real-time operational conditions, the main obstacle for the routine use of such numerical simulations remains the slowness of the numerical computation, which is strengthened when detailed grids are required for the precise modeling of the coastline response on the scale of an individual harbor. In fact, when facing the problem of the interaction of the tsunami wavefield with a shoreline, any numerical simulation must be performed over an increasingly fine grid, which in turn mandates a reduced time step, and the use of a fully non-linear code. Such calculations become then prohibitively time-consuming, which is clearly unacceptable in the framework of real-time warning. Thus only tsunami offshore propagation modeling tools using a single sparse bathymetric computation grid are presently included within the French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT), providing rapid estimation of tsunami wave heights in high seas, and tsunami warning maps at western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins scale. We present here a preliminary work that performs quick estimates of the inundation at individual harbors from these deep wave heights simulations. The method involves an empirical correction relation derived from Green's law, expressing conservation of wave energy flux to extend the gridded wave field into the harbor with respect to the nearby deep-water grid node. The main limitation of this method is that its application to a given coastal area would require a large database of previous observations, in order to define the empirical
When is a Tsunami a Mega-Tsunami?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chague-Goff, C.; Goff, J. R.; Terry, J. P.; Goto, K.
2014-12-01
The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami is commonly called a mega-tsunami, and this attribute has also been linked to the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. However, since this term was first coined in the early 1990's there have been very few attempts to define it. As such it has been applied in a rather arbitrary fashion to a number of tsunami characteristics, such as wave height or amplitude at both the source and at distant locations, run-up height, geographical extent and impact. The first use of the term is related to a tsunami generated by a large bolide impact and indeed it seems entirely appropriate that the term should be used for such rare events on geological timescales. However, probably as a result of media-driven hyperbole, scientists have used this term at least twice in the last decade, which is hardly a significant portion of the geological timescale. It therefore seems reasonable to suggest that these recent unexpectedly large events do not fall in the category of mega-tsunami but into a category of exceptional events within historical experience and local perspective. The use of the term mega-tsunami over the past 14 years is discussed and a definition is provided that marks the relative uniqueness of these events and a new term, appropriately Japanese in origin, namely that of souteigai-tsunami, is proposed. Examples of these tsunamis will be provided.
Elders recall an earlier tsunami on Indian Ocean shores
Kakar, Din Mohammad; Naeem, Ghazala; Usman, Abdullah; Hasan, Haider; Lohdi, Hira; Srinivasalu, Seshachalam; Andrade, Vanessa; Rajendran, C.P.; Naderi Beni, Abdolmajid; Hamzeh, Mohammad Ali; Hoffmann, Goesta; Al Balushi, Noora; Gale, Nora; Kodijat, Ardito; Fritz, Hermann M.; Atwater, Brian F.
2014-01-01
Ten years on, the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 still looms large in efforts to reduce coastal risk. The disaster has spurred worldwide advances in tsunami detection and warning, tsunami-risk assessment, and tsunami awareness [Satake, 2014]. Nearly a lifetime has passed since the northwestern Indian Ocean last produced a devastating tsunami. Documentation of this tsunami, in November 1945, was hindered by international instability in the wake of the Second World War and, in British India, by the approach of independence and partition. The parent earthquake, of magnitude 8.1, was widely recorded, and the tsunami registered on tide gauges, but intelligence reports and newspaper articles say little about inundation limits while permitting a broad range of catalogued death tolls. What has been established about the 1945 tsunami falls short of what's needed today for ground-truthing inundation models, estimating risk to enlarged populations, and anchoring awareness campaigns in local facts. Recent efforts to reduce coastal risk around the Arabian Sea include a project in which eyewitnesses to the 1945 tsunami were found and interviewed (Fig. 1), and related archives were gathered. Results are being made available through UNESCO's Indian Ocean Tsunami Information Center in hopes of increasing scientific understanding and public awareness of the region's tsunami hazards.
Modeling of influence from remote tsunami at the coast of Sakhalin and Kuriles islands.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zaytsev, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet; Chernov, Anton; Kostenko, Irina
2010-05-01
The Far East coast of Russia (Kuriles islands, Sakhalin, Kamchatka) is the area where the dangerous natural phenomena as tsunami is located. A lot of works are established for decreasing of tsunami's influence. Tsunami mapping and mitigation strategy are given for some regions. The centers of Tsunami Warning System are opened, enough plenty of records of a tsunami are collected. The properties of local tsunami are studied well. At the same time, the catastrophic event of the Indonesian tsunami, which had happened in December, 2004, when the sufficient waves have reached the coasts of Africa and South America, it is necessary to note, that the coats, which was far from the epicenter of earthquakes can be effected by catastrophic influence. Moreover, it is practically unique case, when using Tsunami Warning System can reduce the number of human victims to zero. Development of the computer technologies, numerical methods for the solution of systems of the nonlinear differential equations makes computer modeling real and hypothetical tsunamis is the basic method of studying features of distribution of waves in water areas and their influence at coast. Numerical modeling of distribution of historical tsunami from the seismic sources in the Pacific Ocean was observed. The events with an epicenter, remote from Far East coast of Russia were considered. The estimation of the remote tsunami waves propagation was developed. Impact force of tsunamis was estimated. The features of passage of tsunami through Kuril Straits were considered. The spectral analysis of records in settlements of Sakhalin and Kuriles is lead. NAMI-DANCE program was used for tsunami propagation numerical modeling. It is used finite element numerical schemes for Shallow Water Equations and Nonlinear-Dispersive Equations, with use Nested Grid.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Novikova, Tatyana; Babeyko, Andrey; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos
2017-04-01
Greece and adjacent coastal areas are characterized by a high population exposure to tsunami hazard. The Hellenic Arc is the most active geotectonic structure for the generation of earthquakes and tsunamis. We performed probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for selected locations of Greek coastlines which are the forecasting points officially used in the tsunami warning operations by the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Center and the NEAMTWS/IOC/UNESCO. In our analysis we considered seismic sources for tsunami generation along the western, central and eastern segments of the Hellenic Arc. We first created a synthetic catalog as long as 10,000 years for all the significant earthquakes with magnitudes in the range from 6.0 to 8.5, the real events being included in this catalog. For each event included in the synthetic catalog a tsunami was generated and propagated using Boussinesq model. The probability of occurrence for each event was determined by Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution. The results of our study are expressed as hazard curves and hazard maps. The hazard curves were obtained for the selected sites and present the annual probability of exceedance as a function of pick coastal tsunami amplitude. Hazard maps represent the distribution of peak coastal tsunami amplitudes corresponding to a fixed annual probability. In such forms our results can be easily compared to the ones obtained in other studies and further employed for the development of tsunami risk management plans. This research is a contribution to the EU-FP7 tsunami research project ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe), grant agreement no: 603839, 2013-10-30.
Community-based early warning systems for flood risk mitigation in Nepal
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith, Paul J.; Brown, Sarah; Dugar, Sumit
2017-03-01
This paper focuses on the use of community-based early warning systems for flood resilience in Nepal. The first part of the work outlines the evolution and current status of these community-based systems, highlighting the limited lead times currently available for early warning. The second part of the paper focuses on the development of a robust operational flood forecasting methodology for use by the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) to enhance early warning lead times. The methodology uses data-based physically interpretable time series models and data assimilation to generate probabilistic forecasts, which are presented in a simple visual tool. The approach is designed to work in situations of limited data availability with an emphasis on sustainability and appropriate technology. The successful application of the forecast methodology to the flood-prone Karnali River basin in western Nepal is outlined, increasing lead times from 2-3 to 7-8 h. The challenges faced in communicating probabilistic forecasts to the last mile of the existing community-based early warning systems across Nepal is discussed. The paper concludes with an assessment of the applicability of this approach in basins and countries beyond Karnali and Nepal and an overview of key lessons learnt from this initiative.
Near-Field Population Response During the 2 April 2007 Solomon Islands Tsunami
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McAdoo, B. G.; Moore, A. L.; Baumwoll, J.
2007-12-01
When the magnitude 8.1 earthquake and subsequent tsunami hit the Solomon Islands on 2 April 2007 it killed 52 people. On Ghizo Island, home of the capital of the Western Province, Gizo, waves approaching 4 m in height inundated the south coast villages. Eyewitness accounts supported by geologic data from the offshore coral reef and sediment deposited on land suggest a wave that came in as the shaking stopped as a rapidly-rising tide rather than a turbulent bore- vehicles and houses were floated inland with very little damage. Those that survived in villages affected by the tsunami had indigenous knowledge of prior events, whereas immigrant populations died in higher proportions. While buoy-based early warning systems are necessary to mitigate the effects of teletsunamis, they would have done little good in this near-field environment. In Pailongge, a village of 76 indigenous Solomon Islanders on Ghizo's south coast, there were no deaths. Village elders directed the people inland following the shaking and the almost immediate withdrawal of water from the lagoon, and heads of household made sure that children were accounted for and evacuated. Of the 366 Gilbertese living in Titiana, however, 13 people died, 8 of which were children who were exploring the emptied lagoon. A large proportion of the dead were children (24) as they were likely too weak to swim against the non-bore flow. The Gilbertese migrated from Kiribati in the 1950"s, and had not experienced a major earthquake and tsunami, hence had no cultural memory. In the case of the Solomon Islands tsunami, as was the case in the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, indigenous knowledge served the people in the near-field well. In the case of the Indian Ocean where there was 10-20 minutes separation between the time the shaking began and the waves arrived, the combination of an in-place plan and a suitable physical geography allowed the population of Simeulue Island and the Moken people of Thailand to escape before the
The July 17, 2006 Java Tsunami: Tsunami Modeling and the Probable Causes of the Extreme Run-up
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kongko, W.; Schlurmann, T.
2009-04-01
On 17 July 2006, an Earthquake magnitude Mw 7.8 off the south coast of west Java, Indonesia generated tsunami that affected over 300 km of south Java coastline and killed more than 600 people. Observed tsunami heights and field measurement of run-up distributions were uniformly scattered approximately 5 to 7 m along a 200 km coastal stretch; remarkably, a locally focused tsunami run-up height exceeding 20 m at Nusakambangan Island has been observed. Within the framework of the German Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) Project, a high-resolution near-shore bathymetrical survey equipped by multi-beam echo-sounder has been recently conducted. Additional geodata have been collected using Intermap Technologies STAR-4 airborne interferometric SAR data acquisition system on a 5 m ground sample distance basis in order to establish a most-sophisticated Digital Terrain Model (DTM). This paper describes the outcome of tsunami modelling approaches using high resolution data of bathymetry and topography being part of a general case study in Cilacap, Indonesia, and medium resolution data for other area along coastline of south Java Island. By means of two different seismic deformation models to mimic the tsunami source generation, a numerical code based on the 2D nonlinear shallow water equations is used to simulate probable tsunami run-up scenarios. Several model tests are done and virtual points in offshore, near-shore, coastline, as well as tsunami run-up on the coast are collected. For the purpose of validation, the model results are compared with field observations and sea level data observed at several tide gauges stations. The performance of numerical simulations and correlations with observed field data are highlighted, and probable causes for the extreme wave heights and run-ups are outlined. References Ammon, C.J., Kanamori, K., Lay, T., and Velasco, A., 2006. The July 2006 Java Tsunami Earthquake, Geophysical Research Letters, 33(L24308). Fritz, H
Design of flood early warning system with wifi network based on smartphone
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Supani, Ahyar; Andriani, Yuli; Taqwa, Ahmad
2017-11-01
Today, the development using internet of things enables activities surrounding us to be monitored, controlled, predicted and calculated remotely through connections to the internet network such as monitoring activities of long-distance flood warning with information technology. Applying an information technology in the field of flood early warning has been developed in the world, either connected to internet network or not. The internet network that has been done in this paper is the design of WiFi network to access data of rainfall, water level and flood status at any time with a smartphone coming from flood early warning system. The results obtained when test of data accessing with smartphone are in form of rainfall and water level graphs against time and flood status indicators consisting of 3 flood states: Standby 2, Standby 1 and Flood. It is concluded that data are from flood early warning system has been able to accessed and displayed on smartphone via WiFi network in any time and real time.
Electric Field Sensor for Lightning Early Warning System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Premlet, B.; Mohammed, R.; Sabu, S.; Joby, N. E.
2017-12-01
Electric field mills are used popularly for atmospheric electric field measurements. Atmospheric Electric Field variation is the primary signature for Lightning Early Warning systems. There is a characteristic change in the atmospheric electric field before lightning during a thundercloud formation.A voltage controlled variable capacitance is being proposed as a method for non-contacting measurement of electric fields. A varactor based mini electric field measurement system is developed, to detect any change in the atmospheric electric field and to issue lightning early warning system. Since this is a low-cost device, this can be used for developing countries which are facing adversities. A network of these devices can help in forming a spatial map of electric field variations over a region, and this can be used for more improved atmospheric electricity studies in developing countries.
The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network: Scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kühnlenz, F.; Fischer, J.; Eveslage, I.
2009-04-01
SAFER and EDIM working groups, the Department of Computer Science, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany, and Section 2.1 Earthquake Risk and Early Warning, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany Contact: Frank Kühnlenz, kuehnlenz@informatik.hu-berlin.de The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component). It uses SEEDLink to store and provide access to the sensor data. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network should be of great value
Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume II”
Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Geist, Eric L.
2017-01-01
Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.
Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pulwarty, R. S.
2011-12-01
Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have
Dynamic Tsunami Data Assimilation (DTDA) Based on Green's Function: Theory and Application
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Y.; Satake, K.; Gusman, A. R.; Maeda, T.
2017-12-01
aircraft and satellite observation above the Indian Ocean, to forecast the tsunami in Sri Lanka, India and Thailand. It shows that DTDA provides reliable tsunami forecasting for these countries, and the tsunami early warning can be issued half an hour before the tsunami arrives to reduce the damage along the coast.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sieh, K.; Daly, P.; McKinnon, E. E.; Tai, Y. S.; Feener, R. M.; Ishmail, N.
2017-12-01
Our colleagues and we have reconstructed partial earthquake and tsunami histories along the coast of Aceh, Sumatra. Chlieh et al (2006) documented and modeled deformation of offshore islands associated with the 2004 rupture. Meltzner et al (2010) found coral evidence of uplifts in 1394±2 and 1450±3 CE. Sieh et al. (2015) documented associated tsunami that destroyed a structure built in 1366±3 CE, 40 km east of Banda Aceh at Lamreh. Since 2015, our landscape archaeology survey of 43 coastal villages over a 40-km reach of the coast has revealed 995 archaeological sites ranging from 10th century to present and containing over 5,000 carved gravestones and 50,000 ceramic sherds. The distribution of ceramic material suggests 7 discrete areas of cultural activity before the 1394 tsunami. Six of these appear to be villages that used imported ceramics and have been populated since the 10th century. However, detailed analysis indicates a clear reduction in activity between 1360 and 1450 CE. This suggests that one or both of the 1394 and 1450 tsunami disrupted the villages. The distribution of post-1500 CE ceramic material shows a gradual repopulation of pre-tsunami sites and a significant expansion of activity starting at the end of the 16th Century, for all areas except Lamreh. Only at on the elevated Lambaro highlands, above modern Lamreh, does material conclusively date between the 1394 and 1450 CE tsunamis. This historic trading site of "Lambri" contains large quantities of ceramics ranging from the early 11th century until the early 16th century, including precisely dated early-Ming (1403-1425 CE) material, some of which is distinctive imperial trade ceramics. We suspect that after the 1394 tsunami destroyed the other coastal settlements, the relatively safe highlands of Lambri were the only areas of the coast utilized for at least 50 years. After about 1450 CE, however, these highlands were abandoned, while the low-lying coastal communities began once again to
Exploring the Role of Social Memory of Floods for Designing Flood Early Warning Operations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Grabs, Thomas; Halldin, Sven; Seibert, Jan
2016-04-01
Early warning systems are an important tool for natural disaster mitigation practices, especially for flooding events. Warnings rely on near-future forecasts to provide time to take preventive actions before a flood occurs, thus reducing potential losses. However, on top of the technical capacities, successful warnings require an efficient coordination and communication among a range of different actors and stakeholders. The complexity of integrating the technical and social spheres of warning systems has, however, resulted in system designs neglecting a number of important aspects such as social awareness of floods thus leading to suboptimal results. A better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks among the different elements of early warning systems is therefore needed to improve their efficiency and therefore social resilience. When designing an early warning system two important decisions need to be made regarding (i) the hazard magnitude at and from which a warning should be issued and (ii) the degree of confidence required for issuing a warning. The first decision is usually taken based on the social vulnerability and climatic variability while the second one is related to the performance (i.e. accuracy) of the forecasting tools. Consequently, by estimating the vulnerability and the accuracy of the forecasts, these two variables can be optimized to minimize the costs and losses. Important parameters with a strong influence on the efficiency of warning systems such as social awareness are however not considered in their design. In this study we present a theoretical exploration of the impact of social awareness on the design of early warning systems. For this purpose we use a definition of social memory of flood events as a proxy for flood risk awareness and test its effect on the optimization of the warning system design variables. Understanding the impact of social awareness on warning system design is important to make more robust warnings that can
Research on early-warning index of the spatial temperature field in concrete dams.
Yang, Guang; Gu, Chongshi; Bao, Tengfei; Cui, Zhenming; Kan, Kan
2016-01-01
Warning indicators of the dam body's temperature are required for the real-time monitoring of the service conditions of concrete dams to ensure safety and normal operations. Warnings theories are traditionally targeted at a single point which have limitations, and the scientific warning theories on global behavior of the temperature field are non-existent. In this paper, first, in 3D space, the behavior of temperature field has regional dissimilarity. Through the Ward spatial clustering method, the temperature field was divided into regions. Second, the degree of order and degree of disorder of the temperature monitoring points were defined by the probability method. Third, the weight values of monitoring points of each regions were explored via projection pursuit. Forth, a temperature entropy expression that can describe degree of order of the spatial temperature field in concrete dams was established. Fifth, the early-warning index of temperature entropy was set up according to the calculated sequential value of temperature entropy. Finally, project cases verified the feasibility of the proposed theories. The early-warning index of temperature entropy is conducive to the improvement of early-warning ability and safety management levels during the operation of high concrete dams.
Application of the Risk-Based Early Warning Method in a Fracture-Karst Water Source, North China.
Guo, Yongli; Wu, Qing; Li, Changsuo; Zhao, Zhenhua; Sun, Bin; He, Shiyi; Jiang, Guanghui; Zhai, Yuanzheng; Guo, Fang
2018-03-01
The paper proposes a risk-based early warning considering characteristics of fracture-karst aquifer in North China and applied it in a super-large fracture-karst water source. Groundwater vulnerability, types of land use, water abundance, transmissivity and spatial temporal variation of groundwater quality were chosen as indexes of the method. Weights of factors were obtained by using AHP method based on relative importance of factors, maps of factors were zoned by GIS, early warning map was conducted based on extension theory with the help of GIS, ENVI+IDL. The early warning map fused five factors very well, serious and tremendous warning areas are mainly located in northwest and east with high or relatively high transmissivity and groundwater pollutant loading, and obviously deteriorated or deteriorated trend of petroleum. The early warning map warns people where more attention should be paid, and the paper guides decision making to take appropriate protection actions in different warning levels areas.
Japanese Experience with Long-term Recovery from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hayashi, H.
2015-12-01
On March 11, 2011, a huge tsunami disaster hit Pacific coast of Tohoku region due to a magnitude of 9.0 earthquake, and killed almost 20,000 people. It was also the beginning of long-term recovery to prepare for next tsunami attack in the future. In this presentation, I would like to review the recovery process from the following five elements: quantification of tsunami hazards, public education, evacuation model, land-use planning, and real-time tsunami warning. It should be noted that there are lessons from the 2011 event at two different levels: national level and prefecture levels. In relation to the quantification of tsunami hazard and real-time tsunami warning, it followed a big change in tsunami policy at national level such as setting up two levels of tsunami scenarios for tsunami preparedness and mitigation: Level 1 tsunami (L1) and Level 2 tsunami (L2). L1 is the tsunami risk with 50 year return period, and L2 is the one with 1,000 year return period. As for public education, evacuation model, and land-use planning, There existed a big difference for what happened in the northern half of the coast and the southern half. Northern half of the coast belongs to Iwate Prefecture whose geography is rias coast. People in the Rias coast of Iwate Prefecture has been hit many times by tsunami on the average of about 50 years. With these many experiences, they succeeded in reducing the number of mortality down to 4,000 in comparison with 20,000 at the 1886 tsunami disaster. Most of the Southern half belongs to Miyagi Prefecture whose geography is coastal plain. People in the coastal plain in Miyagi Prefecture has little experience with tsunami disaster and end up with 14,000 deaths due to tsunami attack. The differences in the past tsunami experiences in these two prefectures resulted in big differences in public education, evacuation model, and land-use planning.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Soto-Cordero, L.; Meltzer, A.
2014-12-01
A mag 6.4 earthquake offshore northern Puerto Rico earlier this year (1/13/14) is a reminder of the high risk of earthquakes and tsunamis in the northeastern Caribbean. Had the magnitude of this event been 0.1 larger (M 6.5) a tsunami warning would have been issued for the Puerto Rico-Virgin Islands (PRVI) region based on the West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) and Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) response procedures at the time. Such an alert level would have led local authorities to issue evacuation orders for all PRVI coastal areas. Since the number of deaths associated with tsunamis in the Caribbean region is greater than the total casualties from tsunamis in the entire US (including Hawaii and Alaska coasts) having an effective and redundant warning system is critical in order to save lives and to minimize false alarms that could result in significant economic costs and loss of confidence of Caribbean residents. We are evaluating three fundamental components of tsunami monitoring protocols currently in place in the northeastern Caribbean: 1) preliminary earthquake parameters (used to determine the potential that a tsunami will be generated and the basis of tsunami alert levels), 2) adequacy of the tsunami alert levels, and 3) tsunami message dissemination. We compiled a catalog of earthquake locations (2007-2014) and dissemination times from the PTWC, WCATWC and NEIC (final locations). The events were classified into 3 categories: local [17°-20°N, 63.5°-69°W], regional (Caribbean basin) and distant/teleseismic (Atlantic basin). A total of 104 local earthquakes, 31 regional and 25 distant events were analyzed. We found that in general preliminary epicentral locations have an accuracy of 40 km. 64% of local events were located with an accuracy of 20 km. The depth accuracy of local events shallower than 50 km, regional and distant earthquakes is usually smaller than 30 km. For deeper local events the error distribution shows more variability
Exploring the utility of real-time hydrologic data for landslide early warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mirus, B. B.; Smith, J. B.; Becker, R.; Baum, R. L.; Koss, E.
2017-12-01
Early warning systems can provide critical information for operations managers, emergency planners, and the public to help reduce fatalities, injuries, and economic losses due to landsliding. For shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides early warning systems typically use empirical rainfall thresholds, whereas the actual triggering mechanism involves the non-linear hydrological processes of infiltration, evapotranspiration, and hillslope drainage that are more difficult to quantify. Because hydrologic monitoring has demonstrated that shallow landslides are often preceded by a rise in soil moisture and pore-water pressures, some researchers have developed early warning criteria that attempt to account for these antecedent wetness conditions through relatively simplistic storage metrics or soil-water balance modeling. Here we explore the potential for directly incorporating antecedent wetness into landslide early warning criteria using recent landslide inventories and in-situ hydrologic monitoring near Seattle, WA, and Portland, OR. We use continuous, near-real-time telemetered soil moisture and pore-water pressure data measured within a few landslide-prone hillslopes in combination with measured and forecasted rainfall totals to inform easy-to-interpret landslide initiation thresholds. Objective evaluation using somewhat limited landslide inventories suggests that our new thresholds based on subsurface hydrologic monitoring and rainfall data compare favorably to the capabilities of existing rainfall-only thresholds for the Seattle area, whereas there are no established rainfall thresholds for the Portland area. This preliminary investigation provides a proof-of-concept for the utility of developing landslide early warning criteria in two different geologic settings using real-time subsurface hydrologic measurements from in-situ instrumentation.
A short history of tsunami research and countermeasures in Japan
Shuto, Nobuo; Fujima, Koji
2009-01-01
The tsunami science and engineering began in Japan, the country the most frequently hit by local and distant tsunamis. The gate to the tsunami science was opened in 1896 by a giant local tsunami of the highest run-up height of 38 m that claimed 22,000 lives. The crucial key was a tide record to conclude that this tsunami was generated by a “tsunami earthquake”. In 1933, the same area was hit again by another giant tsunami. A total system of tsunami disaster mitigation including 10 “hard” and “soft” countermeasures was proposed. Relocation of dwelling houses to high ground was the major countermeasures. The tsunami forecasting began in 1941. In 1960, the Chilean Tsunami damaged the whole Japanese Pacific coast. The height of this tsunami was 5–6 m at most. The countermeasures were the construction of structures including the tsunami breakwater which was the first one in the world. Since the late 1970s, tsunami numerical simulation was developed in Japan and refined to become the UNESCO standard scheme that was transformed to 22 different countries. In 1983, photos and videos of a tsunami in the Japan Sea revealed many faces of tsunami such as soliton fission and edge bores. The 1993 tsunami devastated a town protected by seawalls 4.5 m high. This experience introduced again the idea of comprehensive countermeasures, consisted of defense structure, tsunami-resistant town development and evacuation based on warning. PMID:19838008
A short history of tsunami research and countermeasures in Japan.
Shuto, Nobuo; Fujima, Koji
2009-01-01
The tsunami science and engineering began in Japan, the country the most frequently hit by local and distant tsunamis. The gate to the tsunami science was opened in 1896 by a giant local tsunami of the highest run-up height of 38 m that claimed 22,000 lives. The crucial key was a tide record to conclude that this tsunami was generated by a "tsunami earthquake". In 1933, the same area was hit again by another giant tsunami. A total system of tsunami disaster mitigation including 10 "hard" and "soft" countermeasures was proposed. Relocation of dwelling houses to high ground was the major countermeasures. The tsunami forecasting began in 1941. In 1960, the Chilean Tsunami damaged the whole Japanese Pacific coast. The height of this tsunami was 5-6 m at most. The countermeasures were the construction of structures including the tsunami breakwater which was the first one in the world. Since the late 1970s, tsunami numerical simulation was developed in Japan and refined to become the UNESCO standard scheme that was transformed to 22 different countries. In 1983, photos and videos of a tsunami in the Japan Sea revealed many faces of tsunami such as soliton fission and edge bores. The 1993 tsunami devastated a town protected by seawalls 4.5 m high. This experience introduced again the idea of comprehensive countermeasures, consisted of defense structure, tsunami-resistant town development and evacuation based on warning.
Contribution of ionospheric monitoring to tsunami warning: results from a benchmark exercise
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rolland, L.; Makela, J. J.; Drob, D. P.; Occhipinti, G.; Lognonne, P. H.; Kherani, E. A.; Sladen, A.; Rakoto, V.; Grawe, M.; Meng, X.; Komjathy, A.; Liu, T. J. Y.; Astafyeva, E.; Coisson, P.; Budzien, S. A.
2016-12-01
Deep ocean pressure sensors have proven very effective to quantify tsunami waves in real-time. Yet, the cost of these sensors and maintenance strongly limit the extensive deployment of dense networks. Thus a complete observation of the tsunami wave-field is not possible so far. In the last decade, imprints of moderate to large transpacific tsunami wave-fields have been registered in the ionosphere through the atmospheric internal gravity wave coupled with the tsunami during its propagation. Those ionospheric observations could provide a an additional description of the phenomenon with a high spatial coverage. Ionospheric observations have been supported by numerical modeling of the ocean-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling, developed by different groups. We present here the first results of a cross-validation exercise aimed at testing various forward simulation techniques. In particular, we compare different approaches for modeling tsunami-induced gravity waves including a pseudo-spectral method, finite difference schemes, a fully coupled normal modes modeling approach, a Fourier-Laplace compressible ray-tracing solution, and a self-consistent, three-dimensional physics-based wave perturbation (WP) model based on the augmented Global Thermosphere-Ionosphere Model (WP-GITM). These models and other existing models use either a realistic sea-surface motion input model or a simple analytic model. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of the different methods and setup common inputs to the models so that meaningful comparisons of model outputs can be made to higlight physical conclusions and understanding. Nominally, we highlight how the different models reproduce or disagree for two study cases: the ionospheric observations related to the 2012 Mw7.7 Haida Gwaii, Canada, and 2015 Mw8.3 Illapel, Chile, events. Ultimately, we explore the possibility of computing a transfer function in order to convert ionospheric perturbations directly into tsunami height estimates.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lamarche, G.; Pelletier, B.; Goff, J. R.
2009-12-01
reef exposed well below the lowest tides. There were no casualties. One inhabitant was warned by LCI television at 06:30am and was able to witness the tsunami. There were unconfirmed reports of two women taken by surprise by the arrival of the tsunami on the reef near the eastern end of Futuna, but who managed to hold on to trees to avoid being taken out to sea by the backwash. A significant disaster was avoided essentially because it was early and the tide was low when the tsunami hit. Such an event at high tide would have added about 0.8-1m in height to the wave and have undoubtedly resulted in severe damage, injuries and possibly deaths. This event, together with a small tsunami triggered by a Mw 6.4 local earthquake in March 1993 and an oral legend about a deadly and destructive wave indicate that the tsunami risk for Futuna is high for the >4000 inhabitants who live almost exclusively on a 50-400 m-wide coastal strip, between a narrow reef and landward coastal cliffs. However, the hour and 10 minutes that the 30 September tsunami took to reach the island provided sufficient time to issue a warning to the population who can rapidly reach safety on this mountainous landscape.
The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program Pr-Nthmp
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Hincapie-Cardenas, C. M.
2014-12-01
Tsunami hazard assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach efforts are intended to reduce losses to life and property. The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies, to developing tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the National Tsunami Hazards and Mitigation Program (NTHMP). This grant supports the TsunamiReady program which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. The seismic water waves originating in the prominent fault systems around PR are considered to be a near-field hazard for Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands (PR/VI) because they can reach coastal areas within a few minutes after the earthquake. Sources for local, regional and tele tsunamis have been identified and modeled and tsunami evacuation maps were prepared for PR. These maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios on the basis of the parameters of potential underwater earthquakes were developed. Secondly, each of these scenarios was simulated. The third step was to determine the worst case scenario (MOM). The run-ups were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Online maps and related evacuation products are available to the public via the PR-TDST (PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool). Currently all the 44 coastal municipalities were recognized as TsunamiReady by the US NWS. The main goal of the program is to declare Puerto Rico as TsunamiReady, including two cities that are not coastal but could be affected by tsunamis. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were approved
Early Warning Signs. A Solution-Finding Report
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Sullivan, Robert, Comp.
2017-01-01
This Solution-Finding Report provides information, requested by Tara Zuber with the Great Lakes Comprehensive Center (GLCC) at American Institutes for Research (AIR), for resources with evidence-based practices that look at the social and emotional causes that impact the lack of student learning and engagement, for GLCC's Early Warning Signs work.…
The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.
2017-04-01
Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bernard, Eddie; Wei, Yong; Tang, Liujuan; Titov, Vasily
2014-12-01
Following the devastating 11 March 2011 tsunami, two deep-ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis (DART®)(DART® and the DART® logo are registered trademarks of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, used with permission) stations were deployed in Japanese waters by the Japanese Meteorological Agency. Two weeks after deployment, on 7 December 2012, a M w 7.3 earthquake off Japan's Pacific coastline generated a tsunami. The tsunami was recorded at the two Japanese DARTs as early as 11 min after the earthquake origin time, which set a record as the fastest tsunami detecting time at a DART station. These data, along with those recorded at other DARTs, were used to derive a tsunami source using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tsunami forecast system. The results of our analysis show that data provided by the two near-field Japanese DARTs can not only improve the forecast speed but also the forecast accuracy at the Japanese tide gauge stations. This study provides important guidelines for early detection and forecasting of local tsunamis.
Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) RPC Experiment
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.; Hall, Callie
2007-01-01
This viewgraph document reviews the background, objectives, methodology, validation, and present status of the Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) experiment. The potential NASA contribution to CREWS Decision Support Tool (DST) centers on remotely sensed imagery products.
Using SMAP data to improve drought early warning over the US Great Plains
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fu, R.; Fernando, N.; Tang, W.
2015-12-01
A drought prone region such as the Great Plains of the United States (US GP) requires credible and actionable drought early warning. Such information cannot simply be extracted from available climate forecasts because of their large uncertainties at regional scales, and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA North American Multi-Model Ensemble experiment (NMME) are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US GP. To mitigate the weaknesses of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies, as the scientific basis for a statistical drought early warning system. This system uses percentile soil moisture anomalies in spring as a key input to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning. The latter outperforms the dynamic prediction over the US Southern Plains and has been used by the Texas state water agency to support state drought preparedness. A main source of uncertainty for this drought early warning system is the soil moisture input obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecasting System (CFS). We are testing use of the beta version of NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture data, along with the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the long-term Essential Climate Variable Soil Moisture (ECV-SM) soil moisture data, to reduce this uncertainty. Preliminary results based on ECV-SM suggests satellite based soil moisture data could improve early warning of rainfall anomalies over the western US GP with less dense vegetation. The skill degrades over the eastern US GP where denser vegetation is found. We evaluate our SMAP-based drought early warning for 2015 summer against observations.
Ecosystems for Early Warning: Potential Use of Bioindicators
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zommers, Z. A.; Sitati, A. M.; Habilov, M.
2014-12-01
Bioindicators are biological processes, species or communities, which are used to assess changes in the environment or environmental quality. Theoretically, they could also be used to provide advanced warning of hazards. They are inexpensive, locally relevant, and can encourage stakeholder participation in early warning system development and maintenance. While bioindicators have been identified for environmental problems such as air pollution and water pollution, and have been used to assess health of ecosystems, little information is available on bioindicators for climate related hazards. This presentation reviews possible biodindicators for droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones, based on the results of a literature review. It will also present results from a household survey of 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso. Indigenous knowledge offers a wealth of potential bioindicators; including animal and insect behavior, and plant phenology. Yet significant study is needed to verify these indicators and evaluate them against criteria such as specificity, variability, monotonicity, practicality and relevance. Bioindicators may not be specific to individual hazards and may provide limited advanced warning, as response often occurs after the actual onset of the hazard. Furthermore, indicators may become increasingly unreliable due to climate change itself. There is a need for a large-scale assessment of hazard bioindicators, which should also include forecasts of bioindicator change under global warming, and a cost-benefit analysis of the value of integrating bioindicators into early warning systems. Lessons can be drawn from ethnopharmacology. Coordinated research on this topic could contribute to the resilience of both ecosystems and human livelihoods.
The Earthquake Early Warning System in Japan (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mori, J. J.; Yamada, M.
2010-12-01
In Japan, the earthquake early warning system (Kinkyu Jishin Sokuhou in Japanese) maintained by the Japan Meterological Agency (JMA) has been in operation and sending pubic information since October 1, 2007. Messages have been broadcast on television and radio to warn of strong shaking to the public. The threshold for broadcasting a message is an estimated intensity of JMA 5 lower, which is approximately equivalent to MM VII to VIII. During the period from October 2007 through August 2010, messages have been sent 9 times for earthquakes of magnitude 5.2 to 7.0. There have been a few instances of significantly over-estimating or under-estimating the predicted shaking, but in general the performance of the system has been quite good. The quality of the detection system depends on the dense network of high-quality seismometers that cover the Japanese Islands. Consequently, the system works very well for events on or close to the 4 main islands, but there is more uncertainty for events near the smaller and more distant islands where the density of instrumentation is much less The Early Warning System is also tied to an extensive education program so that the public can react appropriately in the short amount of time given by the warning. There appears to be good public support in Japan, where people have become accustomed to a high level of fast information on a daily basis. There has also been development of a number of specific safety applications in schools and industry that work off the backbone information provided in the national system.
Long-term perspectives on giant earthquakes and tsunamis at subduction zones
Satake, K.; Atwater, B.F.; ,
2007-01-01
Histories of earthquakes and tsunamis, inferred from geological evidence, aid in anticipating future catastrophes. This natural warning system now influences building codes and tsunami planning in the United States, Canada, and Japan, particularly where geology demonstrates the past occurrence of earthquakes and tsunamis larger than those known from written and instrumental records. Under favorable circumstances, paleoseismology can thus provide long-term advisories of unusually large tsunamis. The extraordinary Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 resulted from a fault rupture more than 1000 km in length that included and dwarfed fault patches that had broken historically during lesser shocks. Such variation in rupture mode, known from written history at a few subduction zones, is also characteristic of earthquake histories inferred from geology on the Pacific Rim. Copyright ?? 2007 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.
Helping coastal communities at risk from tsunamis: the role of U.S. Geological Survey research
Geist, Eric L.; Gelfenbaum, Guy R.; Jaffe, Bruce E.; Reid, Jane A.
2000-01-01
In 1946, 1960, and 1964, major tsunamis (giant sea waves usually caused by earthquakes or submarine landslides) struck coastal areas of the Pacific Ocean. In the U.S. alone, these tsunamis killed hundreds of people and caused many tens of millions of dollars in damage. Recent events in Papua New Guinea (1998) and elsewhere are reminders that a catastrophic tsunami could strike U.S. coasts at any time. The USGS, working closely with NOAA and other partners in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, is helping to reduce losses from tsunamis through increased hazard assessment and improved real-time warning systems.
The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (PR-NTHMP)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vanacore, E. A.; Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Lopez, A. M.
2015-12-01
The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. Of particular interest is the Puerto Rico - Virgin Islands (PRVI) region, where the proximity of the coast to prominent tectonic faults would result in near-field tsunamis. Tsunami hazard assessment, detection capabilities, warning, education and outreach efforts are common tools intended to reduce loss of life and property. It is for these reasons that the PRSN is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies to develop tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the NTHMP. This grant supports the TsunamiReady program, which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. In order to recognize threatened communities in PR as TsunamiReady by the US NWS, the PR Component of the NTHMP have identified and modeled sources for local, regional and tele-tsunamis and the results of simulations have been used to develop tsunami response plans. The main goal of the PR-NTHMP is to strengthen resilient coastal communities that are prepared for tsunami hazards, and recognize PR as TsunamiReady. Evacuation maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios of potential underwater earthquakes were developed, and these scenarios were then modeled through during the second phase. The third phase consisted in determining the worst-case scenario based on the Maximum of Maximums (MOM). Inundation and evacuation zones were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Maps and related evacuation products, like evacuation times, can be accessed online via the PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were
Study on the early warning mechanism for the security of blast furnace hearths
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhao, Hong-bo; Huo, Shou-feng; Cheng, Shu-sen
2013-04-01
The campaign life of blast furnace (BF) hearths has become the limiting factor for safety and high efficiency production of modern BFs. However, the early warning mechanism of hearth security has not been clear. In this article, based on heat transfer calculations, heat flux and erosion monitoring, the features of heat flux and erosion were analyzed and compared among different types of hearths. The primary detecting elements, mathematical models, evaluating standards, and warning methods were discussed. A novel early warning mechanism with the three-level quantificational standards was proposed for BF hearth security.
A culture of tsunami preparedness and applying knowledge from recent tsunamis affecting California
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miller, K. M.; Wilson, R. I.
2012-12-01
It is the mission of the California Tsunami Program to ensure public safety by protecting lives and property before, during, and after a potentially destructive or damaging tsunami. In order to achieve this goal, the state has sought first to use finite funding resources to identify and quantify the tsunami hazard using the best available scientific expertise, modeling, data, mapping, and methods at its disposal. Secondly, it has been vital to accurately inform the emergency response community of the nature of the threat by defining inundation zones prior to a tsunami event and leveraging technical expertise during ongoing tsunami alert notifications (specifically incoming wave heights, arrival times, and the dangers of strong currents). State scientists and emergency managers have been able to learn and apply both scientific and emergency response lessons from recent, distant-source tsunamis affecting coastal California (from Samoa in 2009, Chile in 2010, and Japan in 2011). Emergency managers must understand and plan in advance for specific actions and protocols for each alert notification level provided by the NOAA/NWS West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center. Finally the state program has provided education and outreach information via a multitude of delivery methods, activities, and end products while keeping the message simple, consistent, and focused. The goal is a culture of preparedness and understanding of what to do in the face of a tsunami by residents, visitors, and responsible government officials. We provide an update of results and findings made by the state program with support of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program through important collaboration with other U.S. States, Territories and agencies. In 2009 the California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA) and the California Geological Survey (CGS) completed tsunami inundation modeling and mapping for all low-lying, populated coastal areas of California to assist local jurisdictions on
Survey of the July 17, 2006 Central Javan tsunami reveals 21m runup heights
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fritz, H.; Goff, J.; Harbitz, C.; McAdoo, B.; Moore, A.; Latief, H.; Kalligeris, N.; Kodjo, W.; Uslu, B.; Titov, V.; Synolakis, C.
2006-12-01
The Monday, July 17, 2006 Central Javan 7.7 earthquake triggered a substantial tsunami that killed 600 people along a 200km stretch of coastline. The earthquake was not reported felt along the coastline. While there was a warning issued by the PTWC, it did not trigger an evacuation warning (Synolakis, 2006). The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System announced by UNESCO as operational in a press release two weeks before the event did not function as promised. There were no seismic recordings transmitted to the PTWC, and two German tsunameter buoys had broken off their moorings and were not operational. Lifeguards along a tourist beach reported that while the observed the harbinger shoreline recession, they attributed to exteme storm waves that were pounding the beaches that day. Had the tsunami struck on the preceding Sunday, instead of Monday, the death toll would had been far higher. The International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) surveyed the coastline measuring runup, inundation, flow depths and sediment deposition, with standard methods (Synolakis and Okal, 2004). Runup values ranged up to 21m with several readings over 10m, while sand sheets up to 15cm were deposited. The parent earthquake was similar, albeit of smaller magnitude, to the 1994 East Javan tsunami, which struck about 200km east (Synolakis, et al, 1995) and reached a maximum of 11m runup height only at one location on steep cliffs. The unusual distribution of runup heights, and the pronounced extreme values near Nusa Kambangan, suggest a local coseismic landslide may have triggered an additional tsunami (Okal and Synolakis, 2005). The ITST observed that many coastal villages were completely abandoned after the tsunami, even in locales where there were no casualties. Whether residents will return is uncertain, but it is clear that an education campaign in tsunami hazard mitigation is urgently needed. In the aftermath of the tsunami, the Government of Indonesia enforced urgent emergency preparedness
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta; Reicherter, Klaus
2016-04-01
Knowledge of tsunami risk and vulnerability is essential to establish a well-adapted Multi Hazard Early Warning System, land-use planning and emergency management. As the tsunami risk for the coastline of Oman is still under discussion and remains enigmatic, various scenarios based on historical tsunamis were created. The suggested inundation and run-up heights were projected onto the modern infrastructural setting of the Muscat Capital Area. Furthermore, possible impacts of the worst-case tsunami event for Muscat are discussed. The approved Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to model the structural vulnerability of the infrastructure for a 2 m tsunami scenario, depicting the 1945 tsunami and a 5 m tsunami in Muscat. Considering structural vulnerability, the results suggest a minor tsunami risk for the 2 m tsunami scenario as the flooding is mainly confined to beaches and wadis. Especially traditional brick buildings, still predominant in numerous rural suburbs, and a prevalently coast-parallel road network lead to an increased tsunami risk. In contrast, the 5 m tsunami scenario reveals extensively inundated areas and with up to 48% of the buildings flooded, and therefore consequently a significantly higher tsunami risk. We expect up to 60000 damaged buildings and up to 380000 residents directly affected in the Muscat Capital Area, accompanied with a significant loss of life and damage to vital infrastructure. The rapid urbanization processes in the Muscat Capital Area, predominantly in areas along the coast, in combination with infrastructural, demographic and economic growth will additionally increase the tsunami risk and therefore emphasizes the importance of tsunami risk assessment in Oman.
Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks.
Clements, Christopher F; Blanchard, Julia L; Nash, Kirsty L; Hindell, Mark A; Ozgul, Arpat
2017-06-22
Predicting population declines is a key challenge in the face of global environmental change. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede population collapses; however, such signals are sensitive to the low reliability of abundance estimates. Here, using historical data on whales harvested during the 20th century, we demonstrate that early warning signals can be present not only in the abundance data, but also in the more reliable body size data of wild populations. We show that during the period of commercial whaling, the mean body size of caught whales declined dramatically (by up to 4 m over a 70-year period), leading to early warning signals being detectable up to 40 years before the global collapse of whale stocks. Combining abundance and body size data can reduce the length of the time series required to predict collapse, and decrease the chances of false positive early warning signals.
Early warning of orographically induced floods and landslides in Western Norway
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Leine, Ann-Live; Wang, Thea; Boje, Søren
2017-04-01
In Western Norway, landslides and debris flows are commonly initiated by short-term orographic rainfall or intensity peaks during a prolonged rainfall event. In recent years, the flood warning service in Norway has evolved from being solely a flood forecasting service to also integrating landslides into its early warning systems. As both floods and landslides are closely related to the same hydrometeorological processes, particularly in small catchments, there is a natural synergy between monitoring flood and landslide risk. The Norwegian Flood and Landslide Hazard Forecasting and Warning Service issues regional landslide hazard warnings based on hydrological models, threshold values, observations and weather forecasts. Intense rainfall events and/or orographic precipitation that, under certain topographic conditions, significantly increase the risk of debris avalanches and debris floods are lately receiving more research focus from the Norwegian warning service. Orographic precipitation is a common feature in W-Norway, when moist and relatively mild air arrives from the Atlantic. Steep mountain slopes covered by glacial till makes the region prone to landslides, as well as flooding. The operational early warning system in Norway requires constant improvement, especially with the enhanced number of intense rainfall events that occur in a warming climate. Here, we examine different cases of intense rainfall events which have lead to landslides and debris flows, as well as increased runoff in fast responding small catchments. The main objective is to increase the understanding of the hydrometeorological conditions related to these events, in order to make priorities for the future development of the warning service.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Höchner, Andreas; Babeyko, Andrey; Zamora, Natalia
2014-05-01
Iran and Pakistan are countries quite frequently affected by destructive earthquakes. For instance, the magnitude 6.6 Bam earthquake in 2003 in Iran with about 30'000 casualties, or the magnitude 7.6 Kashmir earthquake 2005 in Pakistan with about 80'000 casualties. Both events took place inland, but in terms of magnitude, even significantly larger events can be expected to happen offshore, at the Makran subduction zone. This small subduction zone is seismically rather quiescent, but a tsunami caused by a thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Additionally, some recent publications raise the question of the possiblity of rare but huge magnitude 9 events at the Makran subduction zone. We first model the historic Balochistan event and its effect in terms of coastal wave heights, and then generate various synthetic earthquake and tsunami catalogs including the possibility of large events in order to asses the tsunami hazard at the affected coastal regions. Finally, we show how an effective tsunami early warning could be achieved by the use of an array of high-precision real-time GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) receivers along the coast.
Tsunami Forecasting in the Atlantic Basin
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Knight, W. R.; Whitmore, P.; Sterling, K.; Hale, D. A.; Bahng, B.
2012-12-01
The mission of the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) is to provide advance tsunami warning and guidance to coastal communities within its Area-of-Responsibility (AOR). Predictive tsunami models, based on the shallow water wave equations, are an important part of the Center's guidance support. An Atlantic-based counterpart to the long-standing forecasting ability in the Pacific known as the Alaska Tsunami Forecast Model (ATFM) is now developed. The Atlantic forecasting method is based on ATFM version 2 which contains advanced capabilities over the original model; including better handling of the dynamic interactions between grids, inundation over dry land, new forecast model products, an optional non-hydrostatic approach, and the ability to pre-compute larger and more finely gridded regions using parallel computational techniques. The wide and nearly continuous Atlantic shelf region presents a challenge for forecast models. Our solution to this problem has been to develop a single unbroken high resolution sub-mesh (currently 30 arc-seconds), trimmed to the shelf break. This allows for edge wave propagation and for kilometer scale bathymetric feature resolution. Terminating the fine mesh at the 2000m isobath keeps the number of grid points manageable while allowing for a coarse (4 minute) mesh to adequately resolve deep water tsunami dynamics. Higher resolution sub-meshes are then included around coastal forecast points of interest. The WCATWC Atlantic AOR includes eastern U.S. and Canada, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are in very close proximity to well-known tsunami sources. Because travel times are under an hour and response must be immediate, our focus is on pre-computing many tsunami source "scenarios" and compiling those results into a database accessible and calibrated with observations during an event. Seismic source evaluation determines the order of model pre
The Role of Cash Flow in Financial Early Warning of Agricultural Enterprises Based on Logistic Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, Fengru
2018-01-01
This paper chooses the agricultural listed companies as the research object, compares the financial situation of the enterprise and the theory of financial early warning, combines the financial status of the agricultural listed companies, selects the relevant cash flow indicators, discusses the application of the Logistic financial early warning model in the agricultural listed companies, Agricultural enterprises get better development. Research on financial early warning of agricultural listed companies will help the agricultural listed companies to predict the financial crisis. Financial early warning model is simple to establish, operational and strong, the use of financial early warning model, to help enterprises in the financial crisis before taking rapid and effective measures, which can avoid losses. Help enterprises to discover signs of deterioration of the financial situation in time to maintain the sustainable development of agricultural enterprises. In addition, through the financial early warning model, investors can correctly identify the financial situation of agricultural enterprises, and can evaluate the financial situation of agricultural enterprises and to help investors to invest in scientific and rational, beneficial to investors to analyze the safety of investment. But also help the relevant regulatory agencies to effectively monitor the market and promote the healthy and stable development of the market.
Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms
Harriman, Lindsey M.
2014-01-01
With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.
Establishing the fundamentals for an elephant early warning and monitoring system.
Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Stoeger, Angela S
2015-09-04
The decline of habitat for elephants due to expanding human activity is a serious conservation problem. This has continuously escalated the human-elephant conflict in Africa and Asia. Elephants make extensive use of powerful infrasonic calls (rumbles) that travel distances of up to several kilometers. This makes elephants well-suited for acoustic monitoring because it enables detecting elephants even if they are out of sight. In sight, their distinct visual appearance makes them a good candidate for visual monitoring. We provide an integrated overview of our interdisciplinary project that established the scientific fundamentals for a future early warning and monitoring system for humans who regularly experience serious conflict with elephants. We first draw the big picture of an early warning and monitoring system, then review the developed solutions for automatic acoustic and visual detection, discuss specific challenges and present open future work necessary to build a robust and reliable early warning and monitoring system that is able to operate in situ. We present a method for the automated detection of elephant rumbles that is robust to the diverse noise sources present in situ. We evaluated the method on an extensive set of audio data recorded under natural field conditions. Results show that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches and accurately detects elephant rumbles. Our visual detection method shows that tracking elephants in wildlife videos (of different sizes and postures) is feasible and particularly robust at near distances. From our project results we draw a number of conclusions that are discussed and summarized. We clearly identified the most critical challenges and necessary improvements of the proposed detection methods and conclude that our findings have the potential to form the basis for a future automated early warning system for elephants. We discuss challenges that need to be solved and summarize open topics in the context of
ShakeAlert—An earthquake early warning system for the United States west coast
Burkett, Erin R.; Given, Douglas D.; Jones, Lucile M.
2014-08-29
Earthquake early warning systems use earthquake science and the technology of monitoring systems to alert devices and people when shaking waves generated by an earthquake are expected to arrive at their location. The seconds to minutes of advance warning can allow people and systems to take actions to protect life and property from destructive shaking. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with several partners, has been working to develop an early warning system for the United States. ShakeAlert, a system currently under development, is designed to cover the West Coast States of California, Oregon, and Washington.
Tohoku-Oki Earthquake Tsunami Runup and Inundation Data for Sites Around the Island of Hawaiʻi
Trusdell, Frank A.; Chadderton, Amy; Hinchliffe, Graham; Hara, Andrew; Patenge, Brent; Weber, Tom
2012-01-01
At 0546 U.t.c. March 11, 2011, a Mw 9.0 ("great") earthquake occurred near the northeast coast of Honshu Island, Japan, generating a large tsunami that devastated the east coast of Japan and impacted many far-flung coastal sites around the Pacific Basin. After the earthquake, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a tsunami alert for the State of Hawaii, followed by a tsunami-warning notice from the local State Civil Defense on March 10, 2011 (Japan is 19 hours ahead of Hawaii). After the waves passed the islands, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists from the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) measured inundation (maximum inland distance of flooding), runup (elevation at maximum extent of inundation) and took photographs in coastal areas around the Island of Hawaiʻi. Although the damage in West Hawaiʻi is well documented, HVO's mapping revealed that East Hawaiʻi coastlines were also impacted by the tsunami. The intent of this report is to provide runup and inundation data for sites around the Island of Hawaiʻi.
Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming.
Jarvis, Lauren; McCann, Kevin; Tunney, Tyler; Gellner, Gabriel; Fryxell, John M
2016-09-01
Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1-4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature-induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.
Crisis management of tohoku; Japan earthquake and tsunami, 11 march 2011.
Zaré, M; Afrouz, S Ghaychi
2012-01-01
The huge earthquake in 11 March 2012 which followed by a destructive tsunami in Japan was largest recorded earthquake in the history. Japan is pioneer in disaster management, especially earthquakes. How this developed country faced this disaster, which had significant worldwide effects? The humanitarian behavior of the Japanese people amazingly wondered the word's media, meanwhile the management of government and authorities showed some deficiencies. The impact of the disaster is followed up after the event and the different impacts are tried to be analyzed in different sectors. The situation one year after Japan 2011 earthquake and Tsunami is overviewed. The reason of Japanese plans failure was the scale of tsunami, having higher waves than what was assumed, especially in the design of the Nuclear Power Plant. Japanese authorities considered economic benefits more than safety and moral factors exacerbate the situation. Major lessons to be learnt are 1) the effectiveness of disaster management should be restudied in all hazardous countries; 2) the importance of the high-Tech early-warning systems in reducing risk; 3) Reconsidering of extreme values expected/possible hazard and risk levels is necessary; 4) Morality and might be taken as an important factor in disaster management; 5) Sustainable development should be taken as the basis for reconstruction after disaster.
Crisis Management of Tohoku; Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, 11 March 2011
Zaré, M; Afrouz, S Ghaychi
2012-01-01
The huge earthquake in 11 March 2012 which followed by a destructive tsunami in Japan was largest recorded earthquake in the history. Japan is pioneer in disaster management, especially earthquakes. How this developed country faced this disaster, which had significant worldwide effects? The humanitarian behavior of the Japanese people amazingly wondered the word’s media, meanwhile the management of government and authorities showed some deficiencies. The impact of the disaster is followed up after the event and the different impacts are tried to be analyzed in different sectors. The situation one year after Japan 2011 earthquake and Tsunami is overviewed. The reason of Japanese plans failure was the scale of tsunami, having higher waves than what was assumed, especially in the design of the Nuclear Power Plant. Japanese authorities considered economic benefits more than safety and moral factors exacerbate the situation. Major lessons to be learnt are 1) the effectiveness of disaster management should be restudied in all hazardous countries; 2) the importance of the high-Tech early-warning systems in reducing risk; 3) Reconsidering of extreme values expected/possible hazard and risk levels is necessary; 4) Morality and might be taken as an important factor in disaster management; 5) Sustainable development should be taken as the basis for reconstruction after disaster. PMID:23113189
The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kühnlenz, F.; Eveslage, I.; Fischer, J.; Fleming, K. M.; Lichtblau, B.; Milkereit, C.; Picozzi, M.
2009-12-01
The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component) and processed within a station. Based on this, the network itself decides whether an event is detected through cooperating stations. SEEDLink is used to store and provide access to the sensor data. Experiences and selected experiment results with the SOSEWIN-prototype installation in the Ataköy district of Istanbul (Turkey) are presented. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network is of great value to do this
Early warning system for Douglas-fir tussock moth outbreaks in the Western United States.
Gary E. Daterman; John M. Wenz; Katharine A. Sheehan
2004-01-01
The Early Warning System is a pheromone-based trapping system used to detect outbreaks of Douglas-fir tussock moth (DFTM, Orgyia pseudotsugata) in the western United States. Millions of acres are susceptible to DFTM defoliation, but Early Warning System monitoring focuses attention only on the relatively limited areas where outbreaks may be...
Application of τc*Pd in earthquake early warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, Po-Lun; Lin, Ting-Li; Wu, Yih-Min
2015-03-01
Rapid assessment of damage potential and size of an earthquake at the station is highly demanded for onsite earthquake early warning. We study the application of τc*Pd for its estimation on the earthquake size using 123 events recorded by the borehole stations of KiK-net in Japan. The new type of earthquake size determined by τc*Pd is more related to the damage potential. We find that τc*Pd provides another parameter to measure the size of earthquake and the threshold to warn strong ground motion.
Early warning signals for critical transitions in a thermoacoustic system
Gopalakrishnan, E. A.; Sharma, Yogita; John, Tony; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Sujith, R. I.
2016-01-01
Dynamical systems can undergo critical transitions where the system suddenly shifts from one stable state to another at a critical threshold called the tipping point. The decrease in recovery rate to equilibrium (critical slowing down) as the system approaches the tipping point can be used to identify the proximity to a critical transition. Several measures have been adopted to provide early indications of critical transitions that happen in a variety of complex systems. In this study, we use early warning indicators to predict subcritical Hopf bifurcation occurring in a thermoacoustic system by analyzing the observables from experiments and from a theoretical model. We find that the early warning measures perform as robust indicators in the presence and absence of external noise. Thus, we illustrate the applicability of these indicators in an engineering system depicting critical transitions. PMID:27767065
The pathway to earthquake early warning in the US
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Allen, R. M.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Vidale, J. E.; West Coast Earthquake Early Warning Development Team
2013-05-01
The development of earthquake early warning capabilities in the United States is now accelerating and expanding as the technical capability to provide warning is demonstrated and additional funding resources are making it possible to expand the current testing region to the entire west coast (California, Oregon and Washington). Over the course of the next two years we plan to build a prototype system that will provide a blueprint for a full public system in the US. California currently has a demonstrations warning system, ShakeAlert, that provides alerts to a group of test users from the public and private sector. These include biotech companies, technology companies, the entertainment industry, the transportation sector, and the emergency planning and response community. Most groups are currently in an evaluation mode, receiving the alerts and developing protocols for future response. The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system is the one group who has now implemented an automated response to the warning system. BART now stops trains when an earthquake of sufficient size is detected. Research and development also continues to develop improved early warning algorithms to better predict the distribution of shaking in large earthquakes when the finiteness of the source becomes important. The algorithms under development include the use of both seismic and GPS instrumentation and integration with existing point source algorithms. At the same time, initial testing and development of algorithms in and for the Pacific Northwest is underway. In this presentation we will review the current status of the systems, highlight the new research developments, and lay out a pathway to a full public system for the US west coast. The research and development described is ongoing at Caltech, UC Berkeley, University of Washington, ETH Zurich, Southern California Earthquake Center, and the US Geological Survey, and is funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the US Geological
HRAS: a webserver for early warning of human health risk brought by aflatoxin.
Hu, Ruifeng; Zeng, Xu; Gao, Weiwei; Wang, Qian; Liu, Zhihua
2013-02-01
Most people are aware that outdoor air pollution can damage their health, but many do not know that indoor air pollution can also exhibit significant negative health effects. Fungi parasitizing in air conditioning and ventilation systems can be one of indoor air pollution sources. Aflatoxin produced by Aspergillus flavus (A. flavus) became a central focus of indoor air pollution, especially in farmer markets. Therefore we developed an early warning system, Health Risk Assessment System, to estimate the growth rate of A. flavus, predict the amount of aflatoxin and provide early warning information. Firstly, the growth of A. flavus and the production of aflatoxin under different conditions were widely obtained through a comprehensive literature review. Secondly, three mathematical models were established to predict the A. flavus colony growth rate, lag phase duration and aflatoxin content, as functions of temperature and water activity based on present studies. Finally, all the results were evaluated by the user-supplied data using PHP programming language. We utilized the web page to show the results and display warning information. The JpGraph library was used to create a dynamic line chart, refreshing the warning information dynamically in real-time. The HARS provides accurate information for early warning purposes to let us take timely steps to protect ourselves.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jiménez, César; Carbonel, Carlos; Rojas, Joel
2018-04-01
We have implemented a numerical procedure to forecast the parameters of a tsunami, such as the arrival time of the front of the first wave and the maximum wave height in real and virtual tidal stations along the Peruvian coast, with this purpose a database of pre-computed synthetic tsunami waveforms (or Green functions) was obtained from numerical simulation of seismic unit sources (dimension: 50 × 50 km2) for subduction zones from southern Chile to northern Mexico. A bathymetry resolution of 30 arc-sec (approximately 927 m) was used. The resulting tsunami waveform is obtained from the superposition of synthetic waveforms corresponding to several seismic unit sources contained within the tsunami source geometry. The numerical procedure was applied to the Chilean tsunami of April 1, 2014. The results show a very good correlation for stations with wave amplitude greater than 1 m, in the case of the Arica tide station an error (from the maximum height of the observed and simulated waveform) of 3.5% was obtained, for Callao station the error was 12% and the largest error was in Chimbote with 53.5%, however, due to the low amplitude of the Chimbote wave (<1 m), the overestimated error, in this case, is not important for evacuation purposes. The aim of the present research is tsunami early warning, where speed is required rather than accuracy, so the results should be taken as preliminary.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jiménez, César; Carbonel, Carlos; Rojas, Joel
2017-09-01
We have implemented a numerical procedure to forecast the parameters of a tsunami, such as the arrival time of the front of the first wave and the maximum wave height in real and virtual tidal stations along the Peruvian coast, with this purpose a database of pre-computed synthetic tsunami waveforms (or Green functions) was obtained from numerical simulation of seismic unit sources (dimension: 50 × 50 km2) for subduction zones from southern Chile to northern Mexico. A bathymetry resolution of 30 arc-sec (approximately 927 m) was used. The resulting tsunami waveform is obtained from the superposition of synthetic waveforms corresponding to several seismic unit sources contained within the tsunami source geometry. The numerical procedure was applied to the Chilean tsunami of April 1, 2014. The results show a very good correlation for stations with wave amplitude greater than 1 m, in the case of the Arica tide station an error (from the maximum height of the observed and simulated waveform) of 3.5% was obtained, for Callao station the error was 12% and the largest error was in Chimbote with 53.5%, however, due to the low amplitude of the Chimbote wave (<1 m), the overestimated error, in this case, is not important for evacuation purposes. The aim of the present research is tsunami early warning, where speed is required rather than accuracy, so the results should be taken as preliminary.
Building regional early flood warning systems by AI techniques
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Amin, M. Z. B. M.
2017-12-01
Building early flood warning system is essential for the protection of the residents against flood hazards and make actions to mitigate the losses. This study implements AI technology for forecasting multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The methodology includes three major schemes: (1) configuring the self-organizing map (SOM) to categorize a large number of regional inundation maps into a meaningful topology; (2) building dynamic neural networks to forecast multi-step-ahead average inundated depths (AID); and (3) adjusting the weights of the selected neuron in the constructed SOM based on the forecasted AID to obtain real-time regional inundation maps. The proposed models are trained, and tested based on a large number of inundation data sets collected in regions with the most frequent and serious flooding in the river basin. The results appear that the SOM topological relationships between individual neurons and their neighbouring neurons are visible and clearly distinguishable, and the hybrid model can continuously provide multistep-ahead visible regional inundation maps with high resolution during storm events, which have relatively small RMSE values and high R2 as compared with numerical simulation data sets. The computing time is only few seconds, and thereby leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting and make early flood inundation warning system. We demonstrate that the proposed hybrid ANN-based model has a robust and reliable predictive ability and can be used for early warning to mitigate flood disasters.
Flood Monitoring and Early Warning System Using Ultrasonic Sensor
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Natividad, J. G.; Mendez, J. M.
2018-03-01
The purpose of this study is to develop a real-time flood monitoring and early warning system in the northern portion of the province of Isabela, particularly the municipalities near Cagayan River. Ultrasonic sensing techniques have become mature and are widely used in the various fields of engineering and basic science. One of advantage of ultrasonic sensing is its outstanding capability to probe inside objective non-destructively because ultrasound can propagate through any kinds of media including solids, liquids and gases. This study focuses only on the water level detection and early warning system (via website and/or SMS) that alerts concern agencies and individuals for a potential flood event. Furthermore, inquiry system is also included in this study to become more interactive wherein individuals in the community could inquire the actual water level and status of the desired area or location affected by flood thru SMS keyword. The study aims in helping citizens to be prepared and knowledgeable whenever there is a flood. The novelty of this work falls under the utilization of the Arduino, ultrasonic sensors, GSM module, web-monitoring and SMS early warning system in helping stakeholders to mitigate casualties related to flood. The paper envisions helping flood-prone areas which are common in the Philippines particularly to the local communities in the province. Indeed, it is relevant and important as per needs for safety and welfare of the community.
Agulnik, Asya; Forbes, Peter W; Stenquist, Nicole; Rodriguez-Galindo, Carlos; Kleinman, Monica
2016-04-01
To evaluate the correlation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score with unplanned transfer to the PICU in hospitalized oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients. We performed a retrospective matched case-control study, comparing the highest documented Pediatric Early Warning Score within 24 hours prior to unplanned PICU transfers in hospitalized pediatric oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients between September 2011 and December 2013. Controls were patients who remained on the inpatient unit and were matched 2:1 using age, condition (oncology vs hematopoietic stem cell transplant), and length of hospital stay. Pediatric Early Warning Scores were documented by nursing staff at least every 4 hours as part of routine care. Need for transfer was determined by a PICU physician called to evaluate the patient. A large tertiary/quaternary free-standing academic children's hospital. One hundred ten hospitalized pediatric oncology patients (42 oncology, 68 hematopoietic stem cell transplant) requiring unplanned PICU transfer and 220 matched controls. None. Using the highest score in the 24 hours prior to transfer for cases and a matched time period for controls, the Pediatric Early Warning Score was highly correlated with the need for PICU transfer overall (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.96), and in the oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant groups individually (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.95 and 0.96, respectively). The difference in Pediatric Early Warning Score results between the cases and controls was noted as early as 24 hours prior to PICU admission. Seventeen patients died (15.4%). Patients with higher Pediatric Early Warning Scores prior to transfer had increased PICU mortality (p = 0.028) and length of stay (p = 0.004). We demonstrate that our institution's Pediatric Early Warning Score is highly correlated with the need for unplanned PICU transfer in hospitalized oncology and
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Roger, J.; Clouard, V.; Moizan, E.
2014-12-01
The recent devastating tsunamis having occurred during the last decades have highlighted the essential necessity to deploy operationnal warning systems and educate coastal populations. This could not be prepared correctly without a minimum knowledge about the tsunami history. That is the case of the Lesser Antilles islands, where a few handfuls of tsunamis have been reported over the past 5 centuries, some of them leading to notable destructions and inundations. But the lack of accurate details for most of the historical tsunamis and the limited period during which we could find written information represents an important problem for tsunami hazard assessment in this region. Thus, it is of major necessity to try to find other evidences of past tsunamis by looking for sedimentary deposits. Unfortunately, island tropical environments do not seem to be the best places to keep such deposits burried. In fact, heavy rainfalls, storms, and all other phenomena leading to coastal erosion, and associated to human activities such as intensive sugarcane cultivation in coastal flat lands, could caused the loss of potential tsunami deposits. Lots of places have been accurately investigated within the Lesser Antilles (from Sainte-Lucia to the British Virgin Islands) the last 3 years and nothing convincing has been found. That is when archeaological investigations excavated a 8-cm thick sandy and shelly layer in downtown Fort-de-France (Martinique), wedged between two well-identified layers of human origin (Fig. 1), that we found new hope: this sandy layer has been quickly attributed without any doubt to the 1755 tsunami, using on one hand the information provided by historical reports of the construction sites, and on the other hand by numerical modeling of the tsunami (wave heights, velocity fields, etc.) showing the ability of this transoceanic tsunami to wrap around the island after ~7 hours of propagation, enter Fort-de-France's Bay with enough energy to carry sediments, and
Earthquake Early Warning ShakeAlert System: Testing and certification platform
Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Kohler, Monica D.; Given, Douglas; Guiwits, Stephen; Andrews, Jennifer; Meier, Men-Andrin; Ahmad, Mohammad; Henson, Ivan; Hartog, Renate; Smith, Deborah
2017-01-01
Earthquake early warning systems provide warnings to end users of incoming moderate to strong ground shaking from earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system, ShakeAlert, is providing alerts to beta end users in the western United States, specifically California, Oregon, and Washington. An essential aspect of the earthquake early warning system is the development of a framework to test modifications to code to ensure functionality and assess performance. In 2016, a Testing and Certification Platform (TCP) was included in the development of the Production Prototype version of ShakeAlert. The purpose of the TCP is to evaluate the robustness of candidate code that is proposed for deployment on ShakeAlert Production Prototype servers. TCP consists of two main components: a real‐time in situ test that replicates the real‐time production system and an offline playback system to replay test suites. The real‐time tests of system performance assess code optimization and stability. The offline tests comprise a stress test of candidate code to assess if the code is production ready. The test suite includes over 120 events including local, regional, and teleseismic historic earthquakes, recentering and calibration events, and other anomalous and potentially problematic signals. Two assessments of alert performance are conducted. First, point‐source assessments are undertaken to compare magnitude, epicentral location, and origin time with the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Catalog, as well as to evaluate alert latency. Second, we describe assessment of the quality of ground‐motion predictions at end‐user sites by comparing predicted shaking intensities to ShakeMaps for historic events and implement a threshold‐based approach that assesses how often end users initiate the appropriate action, based on their ground‐shaking threshold. TCP has been developed to be a convenient streamlined procedure for objectively testing algorithms, and it has
A Neutral Network based Early Eathquake Warning model in California region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xiao, H.; MacAyeal, D. R.
2016-12-01
Early Earthquake Warning systems could reduce loss of lives and other economic impact resulted from natural disaster or man-made calamity. Current systems could be further enhanced by neutral network method. A 3 layer neural network model combined with onsite method was deployed in this paper to improve the recognition time and detection time for large scale earthquakes.The 3 layer neutral network early earthquake warning model adopted the vector feature design for sample events happened within 150 km radius of the epicenters. Dataset used in this paper contained both destructive events and small scale events. All the data was extracted from IRIS database to properly train the model. In the training process, backpropagation algorithm was used to adjust the weight matrices and bias matrices during each iteration. The information in all three channels of the seismometers served as the source in this model. Through designed tests, it was indicated that this model could identify approximately 90 percent of the events' scale correctly. And the early detection could provide informative evidence for public authorities to make further decisions. This indicated that neutral network model could have the potential to strengthen current early warning system, since the onsite method may greatly reduce the responding time and save more lives in such disasters.
Role of remote sensing in desert locust early warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cressman, Keith
2013-01-01
Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria, Forskål) plagues have historically had devastating consequences on food security in Africa and Asia. The current strategy to reduce the frequency of plagues and manage desert locust infestations is early warning and preventive control. To achieve this, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations operates one of the oldest, largest, and best-known migratory pest monitoring systems in the world. Within this system, remote sensing plays an important role in detecting rainfall and green vegetation. Despite recent technological advances in data management and analysis, communications, and remote sensing, monitoring desert locusts and preventing plagues in the years ahead will continue to be a challenge from a geopolitical and financial standpoint for affected countries and the international donor community. We present an overview of the use of remote sensing in desert locust early warning.
Bistatic Space Borne Radar for Early Warning
2006-08-01
bandwidth of about 1.2 MHz. hr ht RX TX z x α α α α αr αt y R30 R10 R31 R11 vRx vTx P Bistatic Space Borne Radar for Early Warning...B V R == (12) where VRX is the receiver velocity and BA is the Doppler chirp bandwidth defined by equation (5). The time necessary to obtain
Performance of Early Warning Systems on Landslides in Central America
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Strauch, W.; Devoli, G.
2012-04-01
We performed a reconnaissance about Early Warning Systems (EWS) on Landslides (EWSL) in the countries of Central America. The advance of the EWSL began in the 1990-ies and accelerated dramatically after the regional disaster provoked by Hurricane Mitch in 1998. In the last decade, Early Warning Systems were intensely promoted by national and international development programs aimed on disaster prevention. Early Warning on landslides is more complicated than for other geological phenomena. But, we found information on more than 30 EWSL in the region. In practice, for example in planning, implementation and evaluation of development projects, it is often not clearly defined what exactly is an Early Warning System. Only few of the systems can be classified as true EWSL that means 1) being directly and solely aimed at persons living in the well-defined areas of greatest risk and 2) focusing their work on saving lives before the phenomenon impacts. There is little written information about the work of the EWSL after the initial phase. Even, there are no statistics whether they issued warnings, if the warnings were successful, how many people were evacuated, if there were few false alerts, etc.. Actually, we did not find a single report on a successful landslide warning issued by an EWSL. The lack of information is often due to the fact that communitarian EWSL are considered local structures and do not have a clearly defined position in the governmental hierarchy; there is little oversight and no qualified support and long-term support. The EWSL suffer from severe problems as lack of funding on the long term, low technical level, and insufficient support from central institutions. Often the EWSL are implemented by NGÓs with funding from international agencies, but leave the project alone after the initial phase. In many cases, the hope of the local people to get some protection against the landslide hazard is not really fulfilled. There is one case, where an EWSL with a
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gusman, A. R.; Setiyono, U.; Satake, K.; Fujii, Y.
2017-12-01
We built pre-computed tsunami inundation database in Pelabuhan Ratu, one of tsunami-prone areas on the southern coast of Java, Indonesia. The tsunami database can be employed for a rapid estimation of tsunami inundation during an event. The pre-computed tsunami waveforms and inundations are from a total of 340 scenarios ranging from 7.5 to 9.2 in moment magnitude scale (Mw), including simple fault models of 208 thrust faults and 44 tsunami earthquakes on the plate interface, as well as 44 normal faults and 44 reverse faults in the outer-rise region. Using our tsunami inundation forecasting algorithm (NearTIF), we could rapidly estimate the tsunami inundation in Pelabuhan Ratu for three different hypothetical earthquakes. The first hypothetical earthquake is a megathrust earthquake type (Mw 9.0) offshore Sumatra which is about 600 km from Pelabuhan Ratu to represent a worst-case event in the far-field. The second hypothetical earthquake (Mw 8.5) is based on a slip deficit rate estimation from geodetic measurements and represents a most likely large event near Pelabuhan Ratu. The third hypothetical earthquake is a tsunami earthquake type (Mw 8.1) which often occur south off Java. We compared the tsunami inundation maps produced by the NearTIF algorithm with results of direct forward inundation modeling for the hypothetical earthquakes. The tsunami inundation maps produced from both methods are similar for the three cases. However, the tsunami inundation map from the inundation database can be obtained in much shorter time (1 min) than the one from a forward inundation modeling (40 min). These indicate that the NearTIF algorithm based on pre-computed inundation database is reliable and useful for tsunami warning purposes. This study also demonstrates that the NearTIF algorithm can work well even though the earthquake source is located outside the area of fault model database because it uses a time shifting procedure for the best-fit scenario searching.
Water level ingest, archive and processing system - an integral part of NOAA's tsunami database
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McLean, S. J.; Mungov, G.; Dunbar, P. K.; Price, D. J.; Mccullough, H.
2013-12-01
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and collocated World Data Service for Geophysics (WDS) provides long-term archive, data management, and access to national and global tsunami data. Archive responsibilities include the NOAA Global Historical Tsunami event and runup database, damage photos, as well as other related hazards data. Beginning in 2008, NGDC was given the responsibility of archiving, processing and distributing all tsunami and hazards-related water level data collected from NOAA observational networks in a coordinated and consistent manner. These data include the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) data provided by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), coastal-tide-gauge data from the National Ocean Service (NOS) network and tide-gauge data from the two National Weather Service (NWS) Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) regional networks. Taken together, this integrated archive supports tsunami forecast, warning, research, mitigation and education efforts of NOAA and the Nation. Due to the variety of the water level data, the automatic ingest system was redesigned, along with upgrading the inventory, archive and delivery capabilities based on modern digital data archiving practices. The data processing system was also upgraded and redesigned focusing on data quality assessment in an operational manner. This poster focuses on data availability highlighting the automation of all steps of data ingest, archive, processing and distribution. Examples are given from recent events such as the October 2012 hurricane Sandy, the Feb 06, 2013 Solomon Islands tsunami, and the June 13, 2013 meteotsunami along the U.S. East Coast.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gailler, A.; Loevenbruck, A.; Hebert, H.
2013-12-01
Numerical tsunami propagation and inundation models are well developed and have now reached an impressive level of accuracy, especially in locations such as harbors where the tsunami waves are mostly amplified. In the framework of tsunami warning under real-time operational conditions, the main obstacle for the routine use of such numerical simulations remains the slowness of the numerical computation, which is strengthened when detailed grids are required for the precise modeling of the coastline response of an individual harbor. Thus only tsunami offshore propagation modeling tools using a single sparse bathymetric computation grid are presently included within the French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT), providing rapid estimation of tsunami warning at western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins scale. We present here a preliminary work that performs quick estimates of the inundation at individual harbors from these high sea forecasting tsunami simulations. The method involves an empirical correction based on theoretical amplification laws (either Green's or Synolakis laws). The main limitation is that its application to a given coastal area would require a large database of previous observations, in order to define the empirical parameters of the correction equation. As no such data (i.e., historical tide gage records of significant tsunamis) are available for the western Mediterranean and NE Atlantic basins, we use a set of synthetic mareograms, calculated for both fake and well-known historical tsunamigenic earthquakes in the area. This synthetic dataset is obtained through accurate numerical tsunami propagation and inundation modeling by using several nested bathymetric grids of increasingly fine resolution close to the shores (down to a grid cell size of 3m in some Mediterranean harbors). Non linear shallow water tsunami modeling performed on a single 2' coarse bathymetric grid are compared to the values given by time-consuming nested grids simulations (and
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wei, Y.; Titov, V. V.; Bernard, E. N.; Spillane, M. C.
2014-12-01
The tragedies of 2004 Sumatra and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis exposed the limits of our knowledge in preparing for devastating tsunamis, especially in the near field. The 1,100-km coastline of the Pacific coast of North America has tectonic and geological settings similar to Sumatra and Japan. The geological records unambiguously show that the Cascadia fault had caused devastating tsunamis in the past and this geological process will cause tsunamis in the future. Existing observational instruments along the Cascadia Subduction Zone are capable of providing tsunami data within minutes of tsunami generation. However, this strategy requires separation of the tsunami signals from the overwhelming high-frequency seismic waves produced during a strong earthquake- a real technical challenge for existing operational tsunami observational network. A new-generation of nano-resolution pressure sensors can provide high temporal resolution of the earthquake and tsunami signals without loosing precision. The nano-resolution pressure sensor offers a state-of the-science ability to separate earthquake vibrations and other oceanic noise from tsunami waveforms, paving the way for accurate, early warnings of local tsunamis. This breakthrough underwater technology has been tested and verified for a couple of micro-tsunami events (Paros et al., 2011). Real-time forecast of Cascadia tsunamis is becoming a possibility with the development of nano-tsunameter technology. The present study provides an investigation on optimizing the placement of these new sensors so that the forecast time can be shortened.. The presentation will cover the optimization of an observational array to quickly detect and forecast a tsunami generated by a strong Cascadia earthquake, including short and long rupture scenarios. Lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami will be examined to demonstrate how we can improve the local forecast using the new technology We expect this study to provide useful guideline for
Design of a reliable and operational landslide early warning system at regional scale
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Calvello, Michele; Piciullo, Luca; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia; Guzzetti, Fausto
2017-04-01
Landslide early warning systems at regional scale are used to warn authorities, civil protection personnel and the population about the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides over wide areas, typically through the prediction and measurement of meteorological variables. A warning model for these systems must include a regional correlation law and a decision algorithm. A regional correlation law can be defined as a functional relationship between rainfall and landslides; it is typically based on thresholds of rainfall indicators (e.g., cumulated rainfall, rainfall duration) related to different exceedance probabilities of landslide occurrence. A decision algorithm can be defined as a set of assumptions and procedures linking rainfall thresholds to warning levels. The design and the employment of an operational and reliable early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides at regional scale depend on the identification of a reliable correlation law as well as on the definition of a suitable decision algorithm. Herein, a five-step process chain addressing both issues and based on rainfall thresholds is proposed; the procedure is tested in a landslide-prone area of the Campania region in southern Italy. To this purpose, a database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003-2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall thresholds are defined applying a frequentist method to reconstructed rainfall conditions triggering landslides in the test area. In the second step, several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities are evaluated, and different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, within steps three and four, the issuing of warning levels is based on the comparison, over time and for each combination, between the measured rainfall and the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in
Human Response to Emergency Warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sorensen, J.
2009-12-01
Almost every day people evacuate from their homes, businesses or other sites, even ships, in response to actual or predicted threats or hazards. Evacuation is the primary protective action utilized in large-scale emergencies such as hurricanes, floods, tornados, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, or wildfires. Although often precautionary, protecting human lives by temporally relocating populations before or during times of threat remains a major emergency management strategy. One of the most formidable challenges facing emergency officials is evacuating residents for a fast-moving and largely unpredictable event such as a wildfire or a local tsunami. How to issue effective warnings to those at risk in time for residents to take appropriate action is an on-going problem. To do so, some communities have instituted advanced communications systems that include reverse telephone call-down systems or other alerting systems to notify at-risk residents of imminent threats. This presentation examines the effectiveness of using reverse telephone call-down systems for warning San Diego residents of wildfires in the October of 2007. This is the first systematic study conducted on this topic and is based on interviews with 1200 households in the evacuation areas.
Early Warning for Large Magnitude Earthquakes: Is it feasible?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zollo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Kanamori, H.
2011-12-01
The mega-thrust, Mw 9.0, 2011 Tohoku earthquake has re-opened the discussion among the scientific community about the effectiveness of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems, when applied to such large events. Many EEW systems are now under-testing or -development worldwide and most of them are based on the real-time measurement of ground motion parameters in a few second window after the P-wave arrival. Currently, we are using the initial Peak Displacement (Pd), and the Predominant Period (τc), among other parameters, to rapidly estimate the earthquake magnitude and damage potential. A well known problem about the real-time estimation of the magnitude is the parameter saturation. Several authors have shown that the scaling laws between early warning parameters and magnitude are robust and effective up to magnitude 6.5-7; the correlation, however, has not yet been verified for larger events. The Tohoku earthquake occurred near the East coast of Honshu, Japan, on the subduction boundary between the Pacific and the Okhotsk plates. The high quality Kik- and K- networks provided a large quantity of strong motion records of the mainshock, with a wide azimuthal coverage both along the Japan coast and inland. More than 300 3-component accelerograms have been available, with an epicentral distance ranging from about 100 km up to more than 500 km. This earthquake thus presents an optimal case study for testing the physical bases of early warning and to investigate the feasibility of a real-time estimation of earthquake size and damage potential even for M > 7 earthquakes. In the present work we used the acceleration waveform data of the main shock for stations along the coast, up to 200 km epicentral distance. We measured the early warning parameters, Pd and τc, within different time windows, starting from 3 seconds, and expanding the testing time window up to 30 seconds. The aim is to verify the correlation of these parameters with Peak Ground Velocity and Magnitude
Early warning method of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods based on temperature and rainfall
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Jingjing; Su, Pengcheng; Cheng, Zunlan
2017-04-01
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are serious disasters in glacial areas. At present, glaciers are retreating while glacial lake area and the outburst risk increases due to the global warming. Therefore, the research of early warning method of GLOFs is important to prevent and reduce the disasters. This paper provides an early warning method using the temperature and rainfall as indices. The daily growth rate of positive antecedent accumulative temperature and the antecedent thirty days accumulative precipitation are calculated for 21 events of GLOF before 2010, based on data from the 21 meteorological stations nearby. The result shows that all the events are above the curve, TV = -0.0193RDC + 3.0018, which can be taken as the early warning threshold curve. This has been verified by the GLOF events in the Ranzeaco glacial lake on 2013-07-05.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013
2013-01-01
The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…
How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cloke, Hannah L.; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul J.; Wetterhall, Fredrik
2017-04-01
Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.
Earthquake Early Warning Beta Users: Java, Modeling, and Mobile Apps
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.
2014-12-01
Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-12-26
... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 49 CFR Parts 573, 577, and 579 [Docket No. NHTSA--2012-0068; Notice 3] RIN 2127-AK72 Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect... final rule. Id. Manufacturers with early warning reporting (EWR) accounts may obtain a copy of the VIN...
How Perturbing Ocean Floor Disturbs Tsunami Waves
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Salaree, A.; Okal, E.
2017-12-01
Bathymetry maps play, perhaps the most crucial role in optimal tsunami simulations. Regardless of the simulation method, on one hand, it is desirable to include every detailed bathymetry feature in the simulation grids in order to predict tsunami amplitudes as accurately as possible, but on the other hand, large grids result in long simulation times. It is therefore, of interest to investigate a "sufficiency" level - if any - for the amount of details in bathymetry grids needed to reconstruct the most important features in tsunami simulations, as obtained from the actual bathymetry. In this context, we use a spherical harmonics series approach to decompose the bathymetry of the Pacific ocean into its components down to a resolution of 4 degrees (l=100) and create bathymetry grids by accumulating the resulting terms. We then use these grids to simulate the tsunami behavior from pure thrust events around the Pacific through the MOST algorithm (e.g. Titov & Synolakis, 1995; Titov & Synolakis, 1998). Our preliminary results reveal that one would only need to consider the sum of the first 40 coefficients (equivalent to a resolution of 1000 km) to reproduce the main components of the "real" results. This would result in simpler simulations, and potentially allowing for more efficient tsunami warning algorithms.
TRMM Applications for Rainfall-Induced Landslide Early Warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dok, A.; Fukuoka, H.; Hong, Y.
2012-04-01
Early warning system (EWS) is the most effective method in saving lives and reducing property damages resulted from the catastrophic landslides if properly implemented in populated areas of landslide-prone nations. For predicting the occurrence of landslides, it requires examination of empirical relationship between rainfall characteristics and past landslide occurrence. In developed countries like Japan and the US, precipitation is monitored by rain radars and ground-based rain gauge matrix. However, in developing regions like Southeast Asian countries, very limited number of rain gauges is available, and there is no implemented methodology for issuing effective warming of landslides yet. Correspondingly, satellite precipitation monitoring could be therefore a possible and promising solution for launching landslide quasi-real-time early warning system in those countries. It is due to the fact that TMPA (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis) can provides a globally calibration-based sequential scheme for combining precipitation estimates from multiple satellites, and gauge analyses where feasible, at fine scales (3-hourly with 0.25°x0.25° spatial resolution). It is available both after and in quasi-real time, calibrated by TRMM Combined Instrument and TRMM Microwave Imager precipitation product. However, validation of ground based rain gauge and TRMM satellite data in the vulnerable regions is still not yet operative. Snake-line/Critical-line and Soil Water Index (SWI) are used for issuing warning of landslide occurrence in Japan; whereas, Caine criterion is preferable in Europe and western nations. Herewith, it presents rainfall behavior which took place in Beichuan city (located on the 2008 Chinese Wenchuan earthquake fault), Hofu and Shobara cities in Japan where localized heavy rainfall attacked in 2009 and 2010, respectively, from TRMM 3B42RT correlated with ground based rain gauge data. The 1-day rainfall intensity and 15-day cumulative rainfall
Hou, Dibo; Song, Xiaoxuan; Zhang, Guangxin; Zhang, Hongjian; Loaiciga, Hugo
2013-07-01
An event-driven, urban, drinking water quality early warning and control system (DEWS) is proposed to cope with China's urgent need for protecting its urban drinking water. The DEWS has a web service structure and provides users with water quality monitoring functions, water quality early warning functions, and water quality accident decision-making functions. The DEWS functionality is guided by the principles of control theory and risk assessment as applied to the feedback control of urban water supply systems. The DEWS has been deployed in several large Chinese cities and found to perform well insofar as water quality early warning and emergency decision-making is concerned. This paper describes a DEWS for urban water quality protection that has been developed in China.
A national survey of obstetric early warning systems in the United Kingdom: five years on.
Isaacs, R A; Wee, M Y K; Bick, D E; Beake, S; Sheppard, Z A; Thomas, S; Hundley, V; Smith, G B; van Teijlingen, E; Thomas, P W
2014-07-01
The Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the UK have recommended obstetric early warning systems for early identification of clinical deterioration to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality. This survey explored early warning systems currently used by maternity units in the UK. An electronic questionnaire was sent to all 205 lead obstetric anaesthetists under the auspices of the Obstetric Anaesthetists' Association, generating 130 (63%) responses. All respondents reported use of an obstetric early warning system, compared with 19% in a similar survey in 2007. Respondents agreed that the six most important physiological parameters to record were respiratory rate, heart rate, temperature, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and oxygen saturation. One hundred and eighteen (91%) lead anaesthetists agreed that early warning systems helped to prevent obstetric morbidity. Staffing pressures were perceived as the greatest barrier to their use, and improved audit, education and training for healthcare professionals were identified as priority areas. © 2014 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.
a Process-Based Drought Early Warning Indicator for Supporting State Drought Mitigation Decision
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; Pu, B.
2014-12-01
Drought prone states such as Texas requires creditable and actionable drought early warning ranging from seasonal to multi-decadal scales. Such information cannot be simply extracted from the available climate prediction and projections because of their large uncertainties at regional scales and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA national multi-models ensemble experiment (NMME) and the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) models, are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US Southern Plains. They also show little connection between the droughts in winter/spring and those in summer, in contrast to the observed dry memory from spring to summer over that region. To mitigate the weakness of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies. Based on these key processes and related fields, we have developed a multivariate principle component statistical model to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning indicator, using the observed or predicted climate conditions in winter and spring on seasonal scale and climate projection for the mid-21stcentury. The summer drought early warning indicator is constructed in a similar way to the NOAA probabilistic predictions that are familiar to water resource managers. The indicator skill is assessed using the standard NOAA climate prediction assessment tools, i.e., the two alternative forced choice (2AFC) and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC). Comparison with long-term observations suggest that this summer drought early warning indicator is able to capture nearly all the strong summer droughts and outperform the dynamic prediction in this regard over the US Southern Plains. This early warning indicator has been used by the state water agency in May 2014 in briefing the state
SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.
2015-12-01
Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.
ON-LINE TOXICITY MONITORS AND WATERSHED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
A Water Quality Early Warning System using On-line Toxicity Monitors (OTMs) has been deployed in the East Fork of the Little Miami River, Clermont County, OH. Living organisms have long been used to determine the toxicity of environmental samples. With advancements in electronic ...
Challenges for operational forecasting and early warning of rainfall induced landslides
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guzzetti, Fausto
2017-04-01
In many areas of the world, landslides occur every year, claiming lives and producing severe economic and environmental damage. Many of the landslides with human or economic consequences are the result of intense or prolonged rainfall. For this reason, in many areas the timely forecast of rainfall-induced landslides is of both scientific interest and social relevance. In the recent years, there has been a mounting interest and an increasing demand for operational landslide forecasting, and for associated landslide early warning systems. Despite the relevance of the problem, and the increasing interest and demand, only a few systems have been designed, and are currently operated. Inspection of the - limited - literature on operational landslide forecasting, and on the associated early warning systems, reveals that common criteria and standards for the design, the implementation, the operation, and the evaluation of the performances of the systems, are lacking. This limits the possibility to compare and to evaluate the systems critically, to identify their inherent strengths and weaknesses, and to improve the performance of the systems. Lack of common criteria and of established standards can also limit the credibility of the systems, and consequently their usefulness and potential practical impact. Landslides are very diversified phenomena, and the information and the modelling tools used to attempt landslide forecasting vary largely, depending on the type and size of the landslides, the extent of the geographical area considered, the timeframe of the forecasts, and the scope of the predictions. Consequently, systems for landslide forecasting and early warning can be designed and implemented at several different geographical scales, from the local (site or slope specific) to the regional, or even national scale. The talk focuses on regional to national scale landslide forecasting systems, and specifically on operational systems based on empirical rainfall threshold
Response to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami disaster.
Koshimura, Shunichi; Shuto, Nobuo
2015-10-28
We revisited the lessons of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami disaster specifically on the response and impact, and discussed the paradigm shift of Japan's tsunami disaster management policies and the perspectives for reconstruction. Revisiting the modern histories of Tohoku tsunami disasters and pre-2011 tsunami countermeasures, we clarified how Japan's coastal communities have prepared for tsunamis. The discussion mainly focuses on structural measures such as seawalls and breakwaters and non-structural measures of hazard map and evacuation. The responses to the 2011 event are discussed specifically on the tsunami warning system and efforts to identify the tsunami impacts. The nation-wide post-tsunami survey results shed light on the mechanisms of structural destruction, tsunami loads and structural vulnerability to inform structural rehabilitation measures and land-use planning. Remarkable paradigm shifts in designing coastal protection and disaster mitigation measures were introduced, leading with a new concept of potential tsunami levels: Prevention (Level 1) and Mitigation (Level 2) levels according to the level of 'protection'. The seawall is designed with reference to Level 1 tsunami scenario, while comprehensive disaster management measures should refer to Level 2 tsunami for protection of human lives and reducing potential losses and damage. Throughout the case study in Sendai city, the proposed reconstruction plan was evaluated from the tsunami engineering point of view to discuss how the post 2011 paradigm was implemented in coastal communities for future disaster mitigation. The analysis revealed that Sendai city's multiple protection measures for Level 2 tsunami will contribute to a substantial reduction of the tsunami inundation zone and potential losses, combined with an effective tsunami evacuation plan. © 2015 The Author(s).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong
2009-04-01
Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords
An Envelope Based Feedback Control System for Earthquake Early Warning: Reality Check Algorithm
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Heaton, T. H.; Karakus, G.; Beck, J. L.
2016-12-01
Earthquake early warning systems are, in general, designed to be open loop control systems in such a way that the output, i.e., the warning messages, only depend on the input, i.e., recorded ground motions, up to the moment when the message is issued in real-time. We propose an algorithm, which is called Reality Check Algorithm (RCA), which would assess the accuracy of issued warning messages, and then feed the outcome of the assessment back into the system. Then, the system would modify its messages if necessary. That is, we are proposing to convert earthquake early warning systems into feedback control systems by integrating them with RCA. RCA works by continuously monitoring and comparing the observed ground motions' envelopes to the predicted envelopes of Virtual Seismologist (Cua 2005). Accuracy of magnitude and location (both spatial and temporal) estimations of the system are assessed separately by probabilistic classification models, which are trained by a Sparse Bayesian Learning technique called Automatic Relevance Determination prior.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe
2017-09-01
The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones
in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Savastano, Giorgio; Komjathy, Attila; Verkhoglyadova, Olga; Wei, Yong; Mazzoni, Augusto; Crespi, Mattia
2017-04-01
Tsunamis can produce gravity waves that propagate up to the ionosphere generating disturbed electron densities in the E and F regions. These ionospheric disturbances are studied in detail using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) measurements collected by continuously operating ground-based receivers from the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Here, we present results using a new approach, named VARION (Variometric Approach for Real-Time Ionosphere Observation), and for the first time, we estimate slant TEC (sTEC) variations in a real-time scenario from GPS and Galileo constellations. Specifically, we study the 2016 New Zealand tsunami event using GNSS receivers with multi-constellation tracking capabilities located in the Pacific region. We compare sTEC estimates obtained using GPS and Galileo constellations. The efficiency of the real-time sTEC estimation using the VARION algorithm has been demonstrated for the 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami event. TEC variations induced by the tsunami event are computed using 56 GPS receivers in Hawai'i. We observe TEC perturbations with amplitudes up to 0.25 TEC units and traveling ionospheric disturbances moving away from the epicenter at a speed of about 316 m/s. We present comparisons with the real-time tsunami model MOST (Method of Splitting Tsunami) provided by the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research. We observe variations in TEC that correlate well in time and space with the propagating tsunami waves. We conclude that the integration of different satellite constellations is a crucial step forward to increasing the reliability of real-time tsunami detection systems using ground-based GNSS receivers as an augmentation to existing tsunami early warning systems.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilson, R. I.; Dengler, L. A.; Goltz, J. D.; Legg, M.; Miller, K. M.; Parrish, J. G.; Whitmore, P.
2009-12-01
California tsunami geoscientists work closely with federal, state and local government emergency managers to help prepare coastal communities for potential impacts from a tsunami before, during, and after an event. For teletsunamis, as scientific information (forecast model wave heights, first-wave arrival times, etc.) from NOAA’s West Coast and Alaska’s Tsunami Warning Center is made available, state-level emergency managers must help convey this information in a concise and comprehendible manner to local officials who ultimately determine the appropriate response activities for their jurisdictions. During the Samoa Tsunami Advisory for California on September 29, 2009, geoscientists from the California Geological Survey and Humboldt State University assisted the California Emergency Management Agency in this information transfer by providing technical assistance during teleconference meetings with NOAA and other state and local emergency managers prior to the arrival of the tsunami. State geoscientists gathered additional background information on anticipated tidal conditions and wave heights for areas not covered by NOAA’s forecast models. The participation of the state geoscientists in the emergency response process resulted in clarifying which regions were potentially at-risk, as well as those having a low risk from the tsunami. Future tsunami response activities for state geoscientists include: 1) working closely with NOAA to simplify their tsunami alert messaging and expand their forecast modeling coverage, 2) creation of “playbooks” containing information from existing tsunami scenarios for local emergency managers to reference during an event, and 3) development of a state-level information “clearinghouse” and pre-tsunami field response team to assist local officials as well as observe and report tsunami effects.
Global Drought Services: Collaborations Toward an Information System for Early Warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.
2014-12-01
Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early
Study of Disseminating Landslide Early Warning Information in Malaysia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koay, Swee Peng; Lateh, Habibah; Tien Tay, Lea; Ahamd, Jamilah; Chan, Huah Yong; Sakai, Naoki; Jamaludin, Suhaimi
2015-04-01
In Malaysia, rain induced landslides are occurring more often than before. The Malaysian Government allocates millions of Malaysian Ringgit for slope monitoring and slope failure remedial measures in the budget every year. In rural areas, local authorities also play a major role in monitoring the slope to prevent casualty by giving information to the residents who are staying near to the slopes. However, there are thousands of slopes which are classified as high risk slopes in Malaysia. Implementing site monitoring system in these slopes to monitor the movement of the soil in the slopes, predicting the occurrence of slopes failure and establishing early warning system are too costly and almost impossible. In our study, we propose Accumulated Rainfall vs. Rainfall Intensity prediction method to predict the slope failure by referring to the predicted rainfall data from radar and the rain volume from rain gauges. The critical line which determines if the slope is in danger, is generated by simulator with well-surveyed the soil property in the slope and compared with historical data. By establishing such predicting system, the slope failure warning information can be obtained and disseminated to the surroundings via SMS, internet and siren. However, establishing the early warning dissemination system is not enough in disaster prevention, educating school children and the community by giving knowledge on landslides, such as landslide's definition, how and why does the slope failure happen and when will it fail, to raise the risk awareness on landslides will reduce landslides casualty, especially in rural area. Moreover, showing video on the risk and symptom of landslides in school will also help the school children gaining the knowledge of landslides. Generating hazard map and landslides historical data provides further information on the occurrence of the slope failure. In future, further study on fine tuning of landslides prediction method, applying IT technology to
Main components and characteristics of landslide early warning systems operational worldwide
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Piciullo, Luca; Cepeda, José
2017-04-01
During the last decades the number of victims and economic losses due to natural hazards are dramatically increased worldwide. The reason can be mainly ascribed to climate changes and urbanization in areas exposed at high level of risk. Among the many mitigation measures available for reducing the risk to life related to natural hazards, early warning systems certainly constitute a significant cost-effective option available to the authorities in charge of risk management and governance. The aim is to help and protect populations exposed to natural hazards, reducing fatalities when major events occur. Landslide is one of the natural hazards addressed by early warning systems. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are mainly composed by the following four components: set-up, correlation laws, decisional algorithm and warning management. Within this framework, the set-up includes all the preliminary actions and choices necessary for designing a LEWS, such as: the area covered by the system, the types of landslides and the monitoring instruments. The monitoring phase provides a series of important information on different variables, considered as triggering factors for landslides, in order to define correlation laws and thresholds. Then, a decisional algorithm is necessary for defining the: number of warning levels to be employed in the system, decision making procedures, and everything else system managers may need for issuing warnings in different warning zones. Finally the warning management is composed by: monitoring and warning strategy; communication strategy; emergency plan and, everything connected to the social sphere. Among LEWSs operational worldwide, two categories can be defined as a function of the scale of analysis: "local" and "territorial" systems. The scale of analysis influences several actions and aspects connected to the design and employment of the system, such as: the actors involved, the monitoring systems, type of landslide phenomena
Early warning reporting categories analysis of recall and complaints data.
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2001-12-31
This analysis was performed to assist the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in identifying components and systems to be included in early warning reporting (EWR) categories that would be based upon historical safety-related recal...
Dynamics and early post-tsunami evolution of floating marine debris near Fukushima Daiichi
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Matthews, John Philip; Ostrovsky, Lev; Yoshikawa, Yutaka; Komori, Satoru; Tamura, Hitoshi
2017-08-01
The devastating tsunami triggered by the Tōhoku-Oki earthquake of 11 March 2011 caused a crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station where it overtopped the seawall defences. On retreating, the tsunami carried loose debris and wreckage seaward and marshalled buoyant material into extensive plumes. Widespread concern over the fate of these and numerous other Tōhoku tsunami depositions prompted attempts to simulate debris dispersion throughout the wider Pacific. However, the effects of locally perturbed wind and wave fields, active Langmuir circulation and current-induced attrition determine a complex and poorly understood morphology for large floating agglomerations. Here we show that the early post-tsunami evolution of marine-debris plumes near Fukushima Daiichi was also shaped by near-surface wind modifications that took place above relatively calm (lower surface roughness) waters covered by surface films derived from oil and other contaminants. High-spatial-resolution satellite tracking reveals faster-than-expected floating-debris motions and invigorated plume evolution within these regions, while numerical modelling of turbulent air flow over the low-drag, film-covered surface predicts typically metre-per-second wind strengthening at centimetric heights, sufficient to explain the observed debris-speed increases. Wind restructuring probably stimulates the dispersion of flotsam from both biological and anthropogenic sources throughout a global ocean of highly variable surface roughness.
Assessing the add value of ensemble forecast in a drought early warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Calmanti, Sandro; Bosi, Lorenzo; Fernandez, Jesus; De Felice, Matteo
2015-04-01
The EU-FP7 project EUPORIAS is developing a prototype climate service to enhance the existing food security drought early warning system in Ethiopia. The Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection (LEAP) system is the Government of Ethiopia's national food security early warning system, established with the support of WFP and the World Bank in 2008. LEAP was designed to increase the predictability and timeliness of response to drought-related food crises in Ethiopia. It combines early warning with contingency planning and contingency funding, to allow the government, WFP and other partners to provide early assistance in anticipation of an impending catastrophes. Currently, LEAP uses satellite based rainfall estimates to monitor drought conditions and to compute needs. The main aim of the prototype is to use seasonal hindcast data to assess the added value of using ensemble climate rainfall forecasts to estimate the cost of assistance of population hit by major droughts. We outline the decision making process that is informed by the prototype climate service, and we discuss the analysis of the expected and skill of the available rainfall forecast data over Ethiopia. One critical outcome of this analysis is the strong dependence of the expected skill on the observational estimate assumed as reference. A preliminary evaluation of the full prototype products (drought indices and needs estimated) using hindcasts data will also be presented.
An early warning indicator for atmospheric blocking events using transfer operators
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Tantet, Alexis, E-mail: a.j.j.tantet@uu.nl; Burgt, Fiona R. van der; Dijkstra, Henk A.
The existence of persistent midlatitude atmospheric flow regimes with time-scales larger than 5–10 days and indications of preferred transitions between them motivates to develop early warning indicators for such regime transitions. In this paper, we use a hemispheric barotropic model together with estimates of transfer operators on a reduced phase space to develop an early warning indicator of the zonal to blocked flow transition in this model. It is shown that the spectrum of the transfer operators can be used to study the slow dynamics of the flow as well as the non-Markovian character of the reduction. The slowest motionsmore » are thereby found to have time scales of three to six weeks and to be associated with meta-stable regimes (and their transitions) which can be detected as almost-invariant sets of the transfer operator. From the energy budget of the model, we are able to explain the meta-stability of the regimes and the existence of preferred transition paths. Even though the model is highly simplified, the skill of the early warning indicator is promising, suggesting that the transfer operator approach can be used in parallel to an operational deterministic model for stochastic prediction or to assess forecast uncertainty.« less
Application of satellite products and hydrological modelling for flood early warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koriche, Sifan A.; Rientjes, Tom H. M.
2016-06-01
Floods have caused devastating impacts to the environment and society in Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. Since flooding events are frequent, this marks the need to develop tools for flood early warning. In this study, we propose a satellite based flood index to identify the runoff source areas that largely contribute to extreme runoff production and floods in the basin. Satellite based products used for development of the flood index are CMORPH (Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique: 0.25° by 0.25°, daily) product for calculation of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and a Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) for calculation of the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI). Other satellite products used in this study are for rainfall-runoff modelling to represent rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, vegetation cover and topography. Results of the study show that assessment of spatial and temporal rainfall variability by satellite products may well serve in flood early warning. Preliminary findings on effectiveness of the flood index developed in this study indicate that the index is well suited for flood early warning. The index combines SPI and TWI, and preliminary results illustrate the spatial distribution of likely runoff source areas that cause floods in flood prone areas.
Performance Analysis of a Citywide Real-time Landslide Early Warning System in Korea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Park, Joon-Young; Lee, Seung-Rae; Kang, Sinhang; Lee, Deuk-hwan; Nedumpallile Vasu, Nikhil
2017-04-01
Rainfall-induced landslide has been one of the major disasters in Korea since the beginning of 21st century when the global climate change started to give rise to the growth of the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. In order to mitigate the increasing damage to properties and loss of lives and to provide an effective tool for public officials to manage the landslide disasters, a real-time landslide early warning system with an advanced concept has been developed by taking into account for Busan, the second largest metropolitan city in Korea, as an operational test-bed. The system provides with warning information based on a five-level alert scheme (Normal, Attention, Watch, Alert, and Emergency) using the forecasted/observed rainfall data or the data obtained from ground monitoring (volumetric water content and matric suction). The alert levels are determined by applying seven different thresholds in a step-wise manner following a decision tree. In the pursuit of improved reliability of an early warning level assigned to a specific area, the system makes assessments repetitively using the thresholds of different theoretical backgrounds including statistical(empirical), physically-based, and mathematical analyses as well as direct measurement-based approaches. By mapping the distribution of the five early warning levels determined independently for each of tens of millions grids covering the entire mountainous area of Busan, the regional-scale system can also provide with the early warning information for a specific local area. The fact that the highest warning level is determined by using a concept of a numerically-modelled potential debris-flow risk is another distinctive feature of the system. This study tested the system performance by applying it for four previous rainy seasons in order to validate the operational applicability. During the rainy seasons of 2009, 2011, and 2014, the number of landslides recorded throughout Busan's territory
The Earthquake Closet: Making Early-Warning Useful
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wyss, M.; Trendafiloski, G.
2009-12-01
Early-warning of approaching strong shaking that could have fatal consequences is a research field that has made great progress. It makes it possible to reduce the impact on dangerous processes in critical facilities and on trains. However, its potential to save lives has a serious Achilles heel: The time for getting to safety is five to 10 seconds only, in many cities. Occupants of upper floors cannot get out of their buildings and narrow streets are not a safe place in strong earthquakes for people who might be able to exit. Thus, only about 10% of a city’s population can benefit from early-warnings, unless they have access to their own earthquake closet that is strong enough to remain intact in a collapsing building. Such an Earthquake Protection Unit (EPU) may be installed in the structurally strongest part of an existing apartment at low cost. In new constructions, we propose that an earthquake shelter be constructed for each floor, large enough to accommodate all occupants of that floor. These types of EPU should be constructed on top of each other, forming a strong tower, next to the elevator shaft and the staircase, at the center of the building. If an EPU with structural properties equivalent to an E-class building is placed into a building of B-class in South America, for example, we estimate that the chances of surviving shaking of intensity VII is about 30,000 times better inside the closet. The probability of escaping injury inside compared to outside we estimate as about 1,500 times better. Educating the population regarding the usefulness of EPUs will be essential, and P-waves can be used as the early warning signal. The owner of an earthquake closet can easily be motivated to take protective measures, when these involve simply to step into his closet, rather than attempting to exit from the building by running down many flights of stairs. Our intention is to start a discussion how best to construct EPUs and how to introduce legislation that will
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yomogida, K.; Saito, T.
2017-12-01
motions from near-fault pressure gauge data immediately after the earthquake occurs, in the sense of tsunami early warning systems.
Integrating Caribbean Seismic and Tsunami Hazard into Public Policy and Action
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.
2012-12-01
processes. For example, earthquake and tsunami exercises are conducted separately, without taking into consideration the compounding effects. Recognizing this deficiency, the UNESCO IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS) which was established in 2005, decided to include the tsunami and earthquake impacts for the upcoming March 20, 2013 regional CARIBE WAVE/LANTEX tsunami exercise. In addition to the tsunami wave heights predicted by the National Weather Service Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii, the USGS PAGER and SHAKE MAP results for the M8.5 scenario earthquake in the southern Caribbean were also integrated into the manual. Additionally, in recent catastrophic planning for Puerto Rico, FEMA did request the local researchers to determine both the earthquake and tsunami impacts for the same source. In the US, despite that the lead for earthquakes and tsunamis lies within two different agencies, USGS and NOAA/NWS, it has been very beneficial that the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program partnership includes both agencies. By working together, the seismic and tsunami communities can achieve an even better understanding of the hazards, but also foster more actions on behalf of government officials and the populations at risk.
Research on the Risk Early Warning Method of Material Supplier Performance in Power Industry
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Peng; Zhang, Xi
2018-01-01
The early warning of supplier performance risk is still in the initial stage interiorly, and research on the early warning mechanism to identify, analyze and prevent the performance risk is few. In this paper, a new method aiming at marerial supplier performance risk in power industry is proposed, firstly, establishing a set of risk early warning indexes, Then use the ECM method to classify the indexes to form different risk grades. Then, improving Crock Ford risk quantization model by considering three indicators, including the stability of power system, economic losses and successful bid ratio to form the predictive risk grade, and ultimately using short board effect principle to form the ultimate risk grade to truly reflect the supplier performance risk. Finally, making empirical analysis on supplier performance and putting forward the counter measures and prevention strategies for different risks.
Seasonal Water Balance Forecasts for Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark
2016-04-01
Droughts severely impact Ethiopian agricultural production. Successful early warning for drought conditions in the upcoming harvest season therefore contributes to better managing food shortages arising from adverse climatic conditions. So far, however, meteorological seasonal forecasts have not been used in Ethiopia's national food security early warning system (i.e. the LEAP platform). Here we analyse the forecast quality of seasonal forecasts of total rainfall and of the meteorological water balance as a proxy for plant available water. We analyse forecast skill of June to September rainfall and water balance from dynamical seasonal forecast systems, the ECMWF System4 and EC-EARTH global forecasting systems. Rainfall forecasts outperform forecasts assuming a stationary climate mainly in north-eastern Ethiopia - an area that is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Forecasts of the water balance index seem to be even more skilful and thus more useful than pure rainfall forecasts. The results vary though for different lead times and skill measures employed. We further explore the potential added value of dynamically downscaling the forecasts through several dynamical regional climate models made available through the EU FP7 project EUPORIAS. Preliminary results suggest that dynamically downscaled seasonal forecasts are not significantly better compared with seasonal forecasts from the global models. We conclude that seasonal forecasts of a simple climate index such as the water balance have the potential to benefit drought early warning in Ethiopia, both due to its positive predictive skill and higher usefulness than seasonal mean quantities.
Improving Early Warning Systems with Categorized Course Resource Usage
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Waddington, R. Joseph; Nam, SungJin; Lonn, Steven; Teasley, Stephanie D.
2016-01-01
Early Warning Systems (EWSs) aggregate multiple sources of data to provide timely information to stakeholders about students in need of academic support. There is an increasing need to incorporate relevant data about student behaviors into the algorithms underlying EWSs to improve predictors of students' success or failure. Many EWSs currently…
Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McNally, A.; Verdin, J. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Wang, S.; Kumar, S.; Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Pervez, M. S.; Fall, G. M.; Karsten, L. R.
2015-12-01
AGU 2015 Fall Meeting Session ID#: 7598 Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning James Verdin, USGS EROS Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA GSFC Amy McNally, NASA GSFC, UMD/ESSIC Kristi Arsenault, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC, SAIC Sujay Kumar, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shrad Shukla, UCSB Chris Funk, USGS EROS Greg Fall, NOAA Logan Karsten, NOAA, UCAR Famine early warning has traditionally required close monitoring of agro-climatological conditions, putting them in historical context, and projecting them forward to anticipate end-of-season outcomes. In recent years, it has become necessary to factor in the effects of a changing climate as well. There has also been a growing appreciation of the linkage between food security and water availability. In 2009, Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) science partners began developing land surface modeling (LSM) applications to address these needs. With support from the NASA Applied Sciences Program, an instance of the Land Information System (LIS) was developed to specifically support FEWS NET. A simple crop water balance model (GeoWRSI) traditionally used by FEWS NET took its place alongside the Noah land surface model and the latest version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and LIS data readers were developed for FEWS NET precipitation forcings (NOAA's RFE and USGS/UCSB's CHIRPS). The resulting system was successfully used to monitor and project soil moisture conditions in the Horn of Africa, foretelling poor crop outcomes in the OND 2013 and MAM 2014 seasons. In parallel, NOAA created another instance of LIS to monitor snow water resources in Afghanistan, which are an early indicator of water availability for irrigation and crop production. These successes have been followed by investment in LSM implementations to track and project water availability in Sub-Saharan Africa and Yemen, work that is now underway. Adoption of
Tsunami Risk in the NE Atlantic: Pilot Study for Algarve Portugal and Applications for future TWS
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Catita, C.; Carrilho, F.; Matias, L.
2012-04-01
Tsunami risk assessment is an essential component of any Tsunami Early Warning System due to its significant contribution to the disaster reduction by providing valuable information that serve as basis for mitigation preparedness and strategies. Generally, risk assessment combines the outputs of the hazard and the vulnerability assessment for considered exposed elements. In the NE Atlantic region, the tsunami hazard is relatively well established through compilation of tsunami historical events, evaluation of tsunamigenic sources and impact computations for site-specific coastal areas. While, tsunami vulnerability remains poorly investigated in spite of some few studies that focused on limited coastal areas of the Gulf of Cadiz region. This work seeks to present a pilot study for tsunami risk assessment that covers about 170 km of coasts of Algarve region, south of Portugal. This area of high coastal occupation and touristic activities was strongly impacted by the 1755 tsunami event as reported in various historical documents. An approach based upon a combination of tsunami hazard and vulnerability is developed in order to take into account the dynamic aspect of tsunami risk in the region that depends on the variation of hazard and vulnerability of exposed elements from a coastal point to other. Hazard study is based upon the consideration of most credible earthquake scenarios and the derivation of hazard maps through hydrodynamic modeling of inundation and tsunami arrival time. The vulnerability assessment is performed by: i) the analysis of the occupation and the population density, ii) derivation of evacuation maps and safe shelters, and iii) the analysis of population response and evacuation times. Different risk levels ranging from "low" to "high" are assigned to the coats of the studied area. Variation of human tsunami risk between the high and low touristic seasons is also considered in this study and aims to produce different tsunami risk-related scenarios
Tsunami magnetic signals in the Northwestern Pacific seafloor magnetic measurements
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schnepf, N. R.; An, C.; Nair, M. C.; Maus, S.
2013-12-01
In the past two decades, underwater cables and seafloor magnetometers have observed motional inductance from ocean tsunamis. This study aimed to characterize the electromagnetic signatures of tsunamis from seafloor stations to assist in the long-term goal of real-time tsunami detection and warning systems. Four ocean seafloor stations (T13, T14, T15, T18) in the Northeastern Philippine Sea collected vector measurements of the electric and magnetic fields every minute during the period of 10/05/2005 to 11/30/2007 (Baba et al., 2010 PEPI). During this time, four major tsunamis occurred as a result of moment magnitude 8.0-8.1 earthquakes. These tsunamis include the 05/03/2006 Tonga event, the 01/13/2007 Kuril Islands event, the 04/01/2007 Solomon Islands event, and the 08/15/2007 Peru event. The Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model (COMCOT) was used to predict the arrival time of the tsunamis at each of the seafloor stations. The stations' raw magnetic field signals underwent a high pass filter to then be examined for signals of the tsunami arrival. The high pass filtering showed clear tsunami signals for the Tonga event, but a clear signal was not seen for the other events. This may be due to signals from near Earth space with periods similar to tsunamis. To remove extraneous atmospheric magnetic signals, a cross-wavelet analysis was conducted using the horizontal field components from three INTERMAGNET land stations and the vertical component from the seafloor stations. The cross-wavelet analysis showed that for three of the six stations (two of the four tsunami events) the peak in wavelet amplitude matched the arrival of the tsunami. We discuss implications of our finding in magnetic monitoring of tsunamis.
A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health
Sahoo, Prasan Kumar; Thakkar, Hiren Kumar; Lee, Ming-Yih
2017-01-01
Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth) an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG), Seismocardiography (SCG) data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient’s cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG) and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG) data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system. PMID:28353681
A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health.
Sahoo, Prasan Kumar; Thakkar, Hiren Kumar; Lee, Ming-Yih
2017-03-29
Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth) an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG), Seismocardiography (SCG) data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient's cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG) and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG) data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system.
Overview and highlights of Early Warning and Crop Condition Assessment project
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Boatwright, G. O.; Whitehead, V. S.
1985-01-01
Work of the Early Warning and Crop Condition Assessment (EW/CCA) project, one of eight projects in the Agriculture and Resources Inventory Surveys Through Aerospace Remote Sensing (AgRISTARS), is reviewed. Its mission, to develop and test remote sensing techniques that enhance operational methodologies for crop condition assessment, was in response to initiatives issued by the Secretary of Agriculture. Meteorologically driven crop stress indicator models have been developed or modified for wheat, maize, grain sorghum, and soybeans. These models provide early warning alerts of potential or actual crop stresses due to water deficits, adverse temperatures, and water excess that could delay planting or harvesting operations. Recommendations are given for future research involving vegetative index numbers and the NOAA and Landsat satellites.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Quentel, E.; Loevenbruck, A.; Hébert, H.
2012-04-01
The catastrophic 2004 tsunami drew the international community's attention to tsunami risk in all basins where tsunamis occurred but no warning system exists. Consequently, under the coordination of UNESCO, France decided to create a regional center, called CENALT, for the north-east Atlantic and the western Mediterranean. This warning system, which should be operational by 2012, is set up by the CEA in collaboration with the SHOM and the CNRS. The French authorities are in charge of the top-down alert system including the local alert dissemination. In order to prepare the appropriate means and measures, they initiated the ALDES (Alerte Descendante) project to which the CEA also contributes. It aims at examining along the French Mediterranean coast the tsunami risk related to earthquakes and landslides. In addition to the evaluation at regional scale, it includes the detailed studies of 3 selected sites; the local alert system will be designed for one of them : the French Riviera. In this project, our main task at CEA consists in assessing tsunami hazard related to seismic sources using numerical modeling. Past tsunamis have affected the west Mediterranean coast but are too few and poorly documented to provide a suitable database. Thus, a synthesis of earthquakes representative of the tsunamigenic seismic activity and prone to induce the largest impact to the French coast is performed based on historical data, seismotectonics and first order models. The North Africa Margin, the Ligurian and the South Tyrrhenian Seas are considered as the main tsunamigenic zones. In order to forecast the most important plausible effects, the magnitudes are estimated by enhancing to some extent the largest known values. Our hazard estimation is based on the simulation of the induced tsunamis scenarios performed with the CEA code. The 3 sites have been chosen according to the regional hazard studies, coastal typology elements and the appropriate DTMs (Digital Terrain Models). The
Effect of Variable Manning Coefficients on Tsunami Inundation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barberopoulou, A.; Rees, D.
2017-12-01
Numerical simulations are commonly used to help estimate tsunami hazard, improve evacuation plans, issue or cancel tsunami warnings, inform forecasting and hazard assessments and have therefore become an integral part of hazard mitigation among the tsunami community. Many numerical codes exist for simulating tsunamis, most of which have undergone extensive benchmarking and testing. Tsunami hazard or risk assessments employ these codes following a deterministic or probabilistic approach. Depending on the scope these studies may or may not consider uncertainty in the numerical simulations, the effects of tides, variable friction or estimate financial losses, none of which are necessarily trivial. Distributed manning coefficients, the roughness coefficients used in hydraulic modeling, are commonly used in simulating both riverine and pluvial flood events however, their use in tsunami hazard assessments is primarily part of limited scope studies and for the most part, not a standard practice. For this work, we investigate variations in manning coefficients and their effects on tsunami inundation extent, pattern and financial loss. To assign manning coefficients we use land use maps that come from the New Zealand Land Cover Database (LCDB) and more recent data from the Ministry of the Environment. More than 40 classes covering different types of land use are combined into major classes such as cropland, grassland and wetland representing common types of land use in New Zealand, each of which is assigned a unique manning coefficient. By utilizing different data sources for variable manning coefficients, we examine the impact of data sources and classification methodology on the accuracy of model outputs.
PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso
2013-04-01
The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was
The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.
2014-12-01
The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their
Recommendations to harmonize European early warning dosimetry network systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dombrowski, H.; Bleher, M.; De Cort, M.; Dabrowski, R.; Neumaier, S.; Stöhlker, U.
2017-12-01
After the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, followed by the Fukushima Nuclear power plant accident 25 years later, it became obvious that real-time information is required to quickly gain radiological information. As a consequence, the European countries established early warning network systems with the aim to provide an immediate warning in case of a major radiological emergency, to supply reliable information on area dose rates, contamination levels, radioactivity concentrations in air and finally to assess public exposure. This is relevant for governmental decisions on intervention measures in an emergency situation. Since different methods are used by national environmental monitoring systems to measure area dose rate values and activity concentrations, there are significant differences in the results provided by different countries. Because European and neighboring countries report area dose rate data to a central data base operated on behalf of the European Commission, the comparability of the data is crucial for its meaningful interpretation, especially in the case of a nuclear accident with transboundary implications. Only by harmonizing measuring methods and data evaluation, is the comparability of the dose rate data ensured. This publication concentrates on technical requirements and methods with the goal to effectively harmonize area dose rate monitoring data provided by automatic early warning network systems. The requirements and procedures laid down in this publication are based on studies within the MetroERM project, taking into account realistic technical approaches and tested procedures.
The Making of a Tsunami Hazard Map: Lessons Learned from the TSUMAPS-NEAM Project
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Basili, R.
2017-12-01
Following the worldwide surge of awareness toward tsunami hazard and risk in the last decade, Europe has promoted a better understanding of the tsunami phenomenon through research projects (e.g. TRANSFER, ASTARTE) and started programs for preventing the tsunami impact along the coastlines of the North-East Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected Seas (NEAM) region (e.g. the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System, NEAMTWS, coordinated by IOC/UNESCO). An indispensable tool toward long-term coastal planning and an effective design and subsequent use of TWS is the availability of a comprehensive Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA). The TSUMAPS-NEAM project took the pledge of producing the first region-wide long-term homogenous PTHA map from earthquake sources. The hazard assessment was built upon state-of-the-art procedures and standards, enriched by some rather innovative/experimental approaches such as: (1) the statistical treatment of potential seismic sources, combining all the available information (seismicity, moment tensors, tectonics), and considering earthquakes occurring on major crustal faults and subduction interfaces; (2) an intensive computational approach to tsunami generation and linear propagation across the sea up to an offshore fixed depth; (3) the use of approximations for shoaling and inundation, based on local bathymetry, and for tidal stages; and (4) the exploration of several alternatives for the basic input data and their parameters which produces a number of models that are treated through an ensemble uncertainty quantification. This presentation will summarize the TSUMAPS-NEAM project goals, implementation, and achieved results, as well as the humps and bumps we run into during its development. The TSUMAPS-NEAM Project (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) is co-financed by the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism, Agreement Number: ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Intrieri, Emanuele; Bardi, Federica; Fanti, Riccardo; Gigli, Giovanni; Fidolini, Francesco; Casagli, Nicola; Costanzo, Sandra; Raffo, Antonio; Di Massa, Giuseppe; Capparelli, Giovanna; Versace, Pasquale
2017-10-01
A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System): An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines
. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC), where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar) and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.
Tsunami Preparedness, Response, Mitigation, and Recovery Planning in California
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Johnson, L. A.; Mccrink, T. P.; Schaffer, E.; Bower, D.; Davis, M.
2016-12-01
In California officials of state, federal, and local governments have coordinated to implement a Tsunami Preparedness and Mitigation Program. Building upon past preparedness efforts carried out year-round this group has leveraged government support at all levels. A primary goal is for everyone who lives at or visits the coast to understand basic life-safety measures when responding to official tsunami alerts or natural warnings. Preparedness actions include: observation of National Tsunami Preparedness Week, local "tsunami walk" drills, scenario-based exercises, testing of notification systems for public alert messaging, outreach materials, workshops, presentations, and media events.Program partners have worked together to develop emergency operations, evacuation plans, and tsunami annexes to plans for counties, cities, communities, and harbors in 20 counties along the coast. Working with the state and federal partner agencies, coastal communities have begun to incorporate sophisticated tsunami "Playbook" scenario information into their planning. These innovative tsunami evacuation and response tools provide detailed evacuation maps and associated real-time response information for identifying areas where flooding could occur. This is critical information for evacuating populations on land, near the shoreline.Acting on recommendations from the recent USGS-led, multi-discipline Science Application for Risk Reduction Tsunami Scenario report on impacts to California and American Society of Civil Engineering adoption proposals to the International Building Code, the state has begun to develop a strategy to incorporate probabilistic tsunami findings into state level policy recommendations for addressing building code adoption, as well as approach land use planning and building code implementation in local jurisdictions. Additional efforts, in the context of sustained community resiliency, include developing recovery planning guidance for local communities.
Near-field hazard assessment of March 11, 2011 Japan Tsunami sources inferred from different methods
Wei, Y.; Titov, V.V.; Newman, A.; Hayes, G.; Tang, L.; Chamberlin, C.
2011-01-01
Tsunami source is the origin of the subsequent transoceanic water waves, and thus the most critical component in modern tsunami forecast methodology. Although impractical to be quantified directly, a tsunami source can be estimated by different methods based on a variety of measurements provided by deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some in real time, some in post real-time. Here we assess these different sources of the devastating March 11, 2011 Japan tsunami by model-data comparison for generation, propagation and inundation in the near field of Japan. This study provides a comparative study to further understand the advantages and shortcomings of different methods that may be potentially used in real-time warning and forecast of tsunami hazards, especially in the near field. The model study also highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements for high-quality tsunami forecast, and its combination with land GPS measurements may lead to better understanding of both the earthquake mechanisms and tsunami generation process. ?? 2011 MTS.
Rapid Earthquake Magnitude Estimation for Early Warning Applications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goldberg, Dara; Bock, Yehuda; Melgar, Diego
2017-04-01
Earthquake magnitude is a concise metric that provides invaluable information about the destructive potential of a seismic event. Rapid estimation of magnitude for earthquake and tsunami early warning purposes requires reliance on near-field instrumentation. For large magnitude events, ground motions can exceed the dynamic range of near-field broadband seismic instrumentation (clipping). Strong motion accelerometers are designed with low gains to better capture strong shaking. Estimating earthquake magnitude rapidly from near-source strong-motion data requires integration of acceleration waveforms to displacement. However, integration amplifies small errors, creating unphysical drift that must be eliminated with a high pass filter. The loss of the long period information due to filtering is an impediment to magnitude estimation in real-time; the relation between ground motion measured with strong-motion instrumentation and magnitude saturates, leading to underestimation of earthquake magnitude. Using station displacements from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, we can supplement the high frequency information recorded by traditional seismic systems with long-period observations to better inform rapid response. Unlike seismic-only instrumentation, ground motions measured with GNSS scale with magnitude without saturation [Crowell et al., 2013; Melgar et al., 2015]. We refine the current magnitude scaling relations using peak ground displacement (PGD) by adding a large GNSS dataset of earthquakes in Japan. Because it does not suffer from saturation, GNSS alone has significant advantages over seismic-only instrumentation for rapid magnitude estimation of large events. The earthquake's magnitude can be estimated within 2-3 minutes of earthquake onset time [Melgar et al., 2013]. We demonstrate that seismogeodesy, the optimal combination of GNSS and seismic data at collocated stations, provides the added benefit of improving the sensitivity of
The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates
Minson, Sarah E.; Meier, Men-Andrin; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.
2018-01-01
The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information.
The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates
Hanks, Thomas C.
2018-01-01
The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information. PMID:29750190
Definition of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide early warning in Italy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cancelliere, A.; Peres, D. J.
2011-12-01
Extreme rainfall is the main cause of shallow landslides. For risk mitigation, landslide early warning systems can be implemented, on the basis of rainfall monitoring and forecasting, and the use of a landslide triggering model. Several empirical, also referred to as statistical, rainfall-landslide triggering models have been proposed in the scientific literature, and used for early warning systems activated worldwide. Nonetheless, it is not clear how effective are landslide warning systems, and it is difficult to quantify the induced benefits for the implemented ones. Many rainfall thresholds have been determined through the statistical analysis of the rainfall events that have been the cause of past landslides only, thus neglecting the cases of true negatives and false positives, with negative effects on the robustness of the proposed threshold and, probably, on the effectiveness of the warning system. In the present work we address the issue of establishing warning thresholds, which, although in an approximate way, account for the related benefits. We propose the maximization of an objective function, that measures the trade-off between true and false warning issues. A ratio between the disadvantages of false positive and false negatives, not greater than one, is introduced in the function. The effect of this ratio on the determination of the thresholds is analysed. The proposed method is based on the availability of a continuous rainfall time series. In Italy, continuous rainfall time series are available from the 1920s, but practical difficulties arise for using them, as they are not published in the Hydrological Annual Reports, by the Servizio Idrografico e Mareografico Nazionale (National Hydrologic and Oceanographic Service), the manager of the most important rainfall monitoring network in Italy. However, it is possible to have a good approximation of the most intense rainfall events, in terms total rainfall, by using the data of annual maxima of
Geoethical considerations in early warning of flooding and landslides: Case study from Norway
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Devoli, Graziella; Kleivane Krøgli, Ingeborg; Dahl, Mads Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Nykjær Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica
2015-04-01
The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs the national early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides in Norway. The two EWSs have been operational since the late 1980s and 2013 respectively, and are based on weather forecasts, various hydro-meteorological prognosis and expert evaluation. Daily warning levels and related information to the public is prepared and presented through custom build internet platforms. In natural hazards sciences, the risk of a specific threat is defined as the product of hazard and consequence. In this context an EWS is intended to work as a mitigation measure in lowering the consequence and thus the risk of the threat. One of several factors determining the quality of such an EWS, is how warnings are communicated to the public. In contrary to what is common practice in some other countries, experts working with EWS in Norway cannot be held personally responsible for consequences of warnings being issued or not. However, the communication of warnings for flooding and landslides at NVE still implies many considerations of geoethical kind. Which are the consequences today for the forecasters when erroneous warning messages are sent because based on a poorly documented analysis? What is for example the most responsible way to describe uncertainties in warnings issued? What is the optimal compromise between avoiding false alarms and not sending out a specific warning? Is it responsible to rely on a "gut feeling"? Some authorities complain in receiving warning messages too often. Is it responsible to begin notifying these, only in cases of "high hazard level" and no longer in cases of "moderate hazard level"? Is it acceptable to issue general warnings for large geographical areas without being able to pinpoint the treat on local scale? What responsibility lies within the EWS in recommending evacuation or other practical measures to local authorities? By presenting how early warnings of flooding and
Milner, Abby; Lewis, William J; Ellis, Charles
2008-01-01
The inclusion of stroke education modules early in medical school curricula has resulted in improved stroke knowledge in graduate physicians. The success of these programs suggests that allied health professions programs should also consider strategies to improve stroke knowledge in students preparing for allied health careers that also require knowledge of stroke risk factors and early warning signs. Currently, little is known about stroke knowledge in students enrolled in allied health professions programs. 208 first- and second-year students enrolled in allied health programs completed a survey of stroke risk factors and early warning signs of stroke. Risk factor knowledge - 99% identified smoking as a risk factor; 67% identified diabetes; 93% identified high cholesterol; 89% identified age; and 92% identified physical inactivity. Less than 50% of the students identified all 5 risk factors. There were no differences between first- and second-year students in risk factor knowledge. Early warning signs and first response knowledge - 89% recognized sudden confusion or trouble speaking; 94% recognized sudden facial, arm, or leg weakness; 65% recognized sudden vision loss; 82% recognized sudden trouble walking; and 73% recognized sudden headache as early warning signs of stroke. Eighty-one percent recognized calling 9-1-1 as the appropriate first action. However, only 25% recognized all five early warning signs and only 20% recognized all five early warning signs and would call 9-1-1 as the first action. There were differences between first- and second-year students in recognizing 3 of 5 early warning signs and appropriate first action to call 9-1-1. Most students recognized individual stroke risk factors and early warning signs but few recognized multiple risk factors and early warning signs of stroke.
Probabilistic and Evolutionary Early Warning System: concepts, performances, and case-studies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zollo, A.; Emolo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Festa, G.; Martino, C.; Picozzi, M.
2013-12-01
PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is a software platform for Earthquake Early Warning that integrates algorithms for real-time earthquake location, magnitude estimation and damage assessment into a highly configurable and easily portable package. In its regional configuration, the software processes, in real-time, the 3-component acceleration data streams coming from seismic stations, for P-waves arrival detection and, in the case a quite large event is occurring, can promptly performs event detection and location, magnitude estimation and peak ground-motion prediction at target sites. The regional approach has been integrated with a threshold-based early warning method that allows, in the very first seconds after a moderate-to-large earthquake, to identify the most Probable Damaged Zone starting from the real-time measurement at near-source stations located at increasing distances from the earthquake epicenter, of the peak displacement (Pd) and predominant period of P-waves (τc), over a few-second long window after the P-wave arrival. Thus, each recording site independently provides an evolutionary alert level, according to the Pd and τc it measured, through a decisional table. Since 2009, PRESTo has been under continuous real-time testing using data streaming from the Iripinia Seismic Network (Southern Italy) and has produced a bulletin of some hundreds low magnitude events, including all the M≥2.5 earthquakes occurred in that period in Irpinia. Recently, PRESTo has been also implemented at the accelerometric network and broad-band networks in South Korea and in Romania, and off-line tested in Iberian Peninsula, in Turkey, in Israel, and in Japan. The feasibility of an Early Warning System at national scale, is currently under testing by studying the performances of the PRESTo platform for the Italian Accelerometric Network. Moreover, PRESTo is under experimentation in order to provide alert in a high-school located in the
Dunbar, Paula K.; Weaver, Craig S.
2015-01-01
The first U.S. Tsunami Hazard Assessment (Dunbar and Weaver, 2008) was prepared at the request of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP). The NTHMP is a partnership formed between federal and state agencies to reduce the impact of tsunamis through hazard assessment, warning guidance, and mitigation. The assessment was conducted in response to a 2005 joint report by the Sub-Committee on Disaster Reduction and the U.S. Group on Earth Observations entitled Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States: A Framework for Action. The first specific action called for in the Framework was to “develop standardized and coordinated tsunami hazard and risk assessments for all coastal regions of the United States and its territories.” Since the first assessment, there have been a number of very significant tsunamis, including the 2009 Samoa, 2010 Chile, and 2011 Japan tsunamis. As a result, the NTHMP requested an update of the U.S. tsunami hazard assessment.
Implementation of the TsunamiReady Supporter Program in Puerto Rico
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Flores Hots, V. E.; Vanacore, E. A.; Gonzalez Ruiz, W.; Gomez, G.
2016-12-01
The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) manages the PR Tsunami Program (NTHMP), including the TsunamiReady Supporter Program. Through this program the PRSN helps private organizations, businesses, facilities or local government entities to willingly engage in tsunami planning and preparedness that meet some requirements established by the National Weather Service. TsunamiReady Supporter organizations are better prepared to respond to a tsunami emergency, developing a response plan (using a template that PRSN developed and provides), and reinforcing their communication systems including NOAA radio, RSS, and loud speakers to receive and disseminate the alerts issued by the NWS and the Tsunami Warning Centers (TWC). The planning and the communication systems added to the training that PRSN provides to the staff and employees, are intend to help visitors and employees evacuate the tsunami hazard zone to the nearest assembly point minimizing loss of life. Potential TsunamiReady Supporters include, but are not limited to, businesses, schools, churches, hospitals, malls, utilities, museums, beaches, and harbors. However, the traditional targets for such programs are primarily tourism sites and hotels where people unaware of the tsunami hazard may be present. In 2016 the Tsunami Ready Program guided four businesses to achieve the TsunamiReady Supporter recognition. Two facilities were hotels near or inside the evacuation zone. The other facilities were the first and only health center and supermarket to be recognized in the United States and US territories. Based on the experience of preparing the health center and supermarket sites, here we present two case studies of how the TsunamiReady Supporter Program can be applied to non-traditional facilities as well as how the application of this program to such facilities can improve tsunami hazard mitigation. Currently, we are working on expanding the application of this program to non-traditional facilities by working with a
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Jun; Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Zhang, Hongcai
2013-10-01
In this article, the seismic records of Japan's Kik-net are selected to measure the acceleration, displacement, and effective peak acceleration of each seismic record within a certain time after P wave, then a continuous estimation is given on earthquake early warning magnitude through statistical analysis method, and Wenchuan earthquake record is utilized to check the method. The results show that the reliability of earthquake early warning magnitude continuously increases with the increase of the seismic information, the biggest residual happens if the acceleration is adopted to fit earthquake magnitude, which may be caused by rich high-frequency components and large dispersion of peak value in acceleration record, the influence caused by the high-frequency components can be effectively reduced if the effective peak acceleration and peak displacement is adopted, it is estimated that the dispersion of earthquake magnitude obviously reduces, but it is easy for peak displacement to be affected by long-period drifting. In various components, the residual enlargement phenomenon at vertical direction is almost unobvious, thus it is recommended in this article that the effective peak acceleration at vertical direction is preferred to estimate earthquake early warning magnitude. Through adopting Wenchuan strong earthquake record to check the method mentioned in this article, it is found that this method can be used to quickly, stably, and accurately estimate the early warning magnitude of this earthquake, which shows that this method is completely applicable for earthquake early warning.
Early warning, warning or alarm systems for natural hazards? A generic classification.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel
2013-04-01
Early warning, warning and alarm systems have gained popularity in recent years as cost-efficient measures for dangerous natural hazard processes such as floods, storms, rock and snow avalanches, debris flows, rock and ice falls, landslides, flash floods, glacier lake outburst floods, forest fires and even earthquakes. These systems can generate information before an event causes loss of property and life. In this way, they mainly mitigate the overall risk by reducing the presence probability of endangered objects. These systems are typically prototypes tailored to specific project needs. Despite their importance there is no recognised system classification. This contribution classifies warning and alarm systems into three classes: i) threshold systems, ii) expert systems and iii) model-based expert systems. The result is a generic classification, which takes the characteristics of the natural hazard process itself and the related monitoring possibilities into account. The choice of the monitoring parameters directly determines the system's lead time. The classification of 52 active systems moreover revealed typical system characteristics for each system class. i) Threshold systems monitor dynamic process parameters of ongoing events (e.g. water level of a debris flow) and incorporate minor lead times. They have a local geographical coverage and a predefined threshold determines if an alarm is automatically activated to warn endangered objects, authorities and system operators. ii) Expert systems monitor direct changes in the variable disposition (e.g crack opening before a rock avalanche) or trigger events (e.g. heavy rain) at a local scale before the main event starts and thus offer extended lead times. The final alarm decision incorporates human, model and organisational related factors. iii) Model-based expert systems monitor indirect changes in the variable disposition (e.g. snow temperature, height or solar radiation that influence the occurrence probability
Year in Diabetes 2012: The Diabetes Tsunami
Jastreboff, A. M.
2012-01-01
Diabetes affects more than 300 million individuals globally, contributing to significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. As the incidence and prevalence of diabetes continue to escalate with the force of an approaching tsunami, it is imperative that we better define the biological mechanisms causing both obesity and diabetes and identify optimal prevention and treatment strategies that will enable a healthier environment and calmer waters. New guidelines from the American Diabetes Association/European Association of the Study of Diabetes and The Endocrine Society encourage individualized care for each patient with diabetes, both in the outpatient and inpatient setting. Recent data suggest that restoration of normal glucose metabolism in people with prediabetes may delay progression to type 2 diabetes (T2DM). However, several large clinical trials have underscored the limitations of current treatment options once T2DM has developed, particularly in obese children with the disease. Prospects for reversing new-onset type 1 diabetes also appear limited, although recent clinical trials indicate that immunotherapy can delay the loss of β-cell function, suggesting potential benefits if treatment is initiated earlier. Research demonstrating a role for the central nervous system in the development of obesity and T2DM, the identification of a new hormone that simulates some of the benefits of exercise, and the development of new β-cell imaging techniques may provide novel therapeutic targets and biomarkers of early diabetes detection for optimization of interventions. Today's message is that a diabetes tsunami is imminent, and the only way to minimize the damage is to create an early warning system and improve interventions to protect those in its path. PMID:23185035
Year in diabetes 2012: The diabetes tsunami.
Sherwin, R; Jastreboff, A M
2012-12-01
Diabetes affects more than 300 million individuals globally, contributing to significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. As the incidence and prevalence of diabetes continue to escalate with the force of an approaching tsunami, it is imperative that we better define the biological mechanisms causing both obesity and diabetes and identify optimal prevention and treatment strategies that will enable a healthier environment and calmer waters. New guidelines from the American Diabetes Association/European Association of the Study of Diabetes and The Endocrine Society encourage individualized care for each patient with diabetes, both in the outpatient and inpatient setting. Recent data suggest that restoration of normal glucose metabolism in people with prediabetes may delay progression to type 2 diabetes (T2DM). However, several large clinical trials have underscored the limitations of current treatment options once T2DM has developed, particularly in obese children with the disease. Prospects for reversing new-onset type 1 diabetes also appear limited, although recent clinical trials indicate that immunotherapy can delay the loss of β-cell function, suggesting potential benefits if treatment is initiated earlier. Research demonstrating a role for the central nervous system in the development of obesity and T2DM, the identification of a new hormone that simulates some of the benefits of exercise, and the development of new β-cell imaging techniques may provide novel therapeutic targets and biomarkers of early diabetes detection for optimization of interventions. Today's message is that a diabetes tsunami is imminent, and the only way to minimize the damage is to create an early warning system and improve interventions to protect those in its path.
Landslide early warning system prototype with GIS analysis indicates by soil movement and rainfall
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Artha, Y.; Julian, E. S.
2018-01-01
The aim of this paper is developing and testing of landslide early warning system. The early warning system uses accelerometersas ground movement and tilt-sensing device and a water flow sensor. A microcentroller is used to process the input signal and activate the alarm. An LCD is used to display the acceleration in x,y and z axis. When the soil moved or shifted and rainfall reached 100 mm/day, the alarm rang and signal were sentto the monitoring center via a telemetry system.Data logging information and GIS spatial data can be monitored remotely as tables and graphics as well as in the form of geographical map with the help of web-GIS interface. The system were tested at Kampung Gerendong, Desa Putat Nutug, Kecamatan Ciseeng, Kabupaten Bogor. This area has 3.15 cumulative score, which mean vulnerable to landslide. The results show that the early warning system worked as planned.
Development and Use of Early Warning Systems. SLDS Spotlight
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Curtin, Jenny; Hurwitch, Bill; Olson, Tom
2012-01-01
An early warning system is a data-based tool that helps predict which students are on the right path towards eventual graduation or other grade-appropriate goals. Through such systems, stakeholders at the school and district levels can view data from a wide range of perspectives and gain a deeper understanding of student data. This "Statewide…
Development of a Low Cost Earthquake Early Warning System in Taiwan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Y. M.
2017-12-01
The National Taiwan University (NTU) developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers (P-Alert) since 2010. As of 2017, a total of 650 stations have been deployed and configured. The NTU system can provide earthquake information within 15 s of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide early warnings for cities located more than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the NTU system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning for incoming P-waves greater than a certain magnitude threshold, thus providing a 2-3 s lead time before peak ground acceleration (PGA) for regions close to an epicenter. Detailed shaking maps are produced by the NTU system within one or two minutes after an earthquake. Recently, a new module named ShakeAlarm has been developed. Equipped with real-time acceleration signals and the time-dependent anisotropic attenuation relationship of the PGA, ShakingAlarm can provide an accurate PGA estimation immediately before the arrival of the observed PGA. This unique advantage produces sufficient lead time for hazard assessment and emergency response, which is unavailable for traditional shakemap, which are based on only the PGA observed in real time. The performance of ShakingAlarm was tested with six M > 5.5 inland earthquakes from 2013 to 2016. Taking the 2016 M6.4 Meinong earthquake simulation as an example, the predicted PGA converges to a stable value and produces a predicted shake map and an isocontour map of the predicted PGA within 16 seconds of earthquake occurrence. Compared with traditional regional EEW system, ShakingAlarm can effectively identify possible damage regions and provide valuable early warning information (magnitude and PGA) for risk mitigation.
Earthquake early warning for Romania - most recent improvements
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marmureanu, Alexandru; Elia, Luca; Martino, Claudio; Colombelli, Simona; Zollo, Aldo; Cioflan, Carmen; Toader, Victorin; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marius Craiu, George; Ionescu, Constantin
2014-05-01
EWS for Vrancea earthquakes uses the time interval (28-32 sec.) between the moment when the earthquake is detected by the local seismic network installed in the epicenter area (Vrancea) and the arrival time of the seismic waves in the protected area (Bucharest) to send earthquake warning to users. In the last years, National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) upgraded its seismic network in order to cover better the seismic zones of Romania. Currently the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) operates a real-time seismic network designed to monitor the seismic activity on the Romania territory, dominated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth (60-200 km) earthquakes. The NIEP real-time network consists of 102 stations and two seismic arrays equipped with different high quality digitizers (Kinemetrics K2, Quanterra Q330, Quanterra Q330HR, PS6-26, Basalt), broadband and short period seismometers (CMG3ESP, CMG40T, KS2000, KS54000, KS2000, CMG3T,STS2, SH-1, S13, Ranger, gs21, Mark l22) and acceleration sensors (Episensor). Recent improvement of the seismic network and real-time communication technologies allows implementation of a nation-wide EEWS for Vrancea and other seismic sources from Romania. We present a regional approach to Earthquake Early Warning for Romania earthquakes. The regional approach is based on PRESTo (Probabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) software platform: PRESTo processes in real-time three channel acceleration data streams: once the P-waves arrival have been detected, it provides earthquake location and magnitude estimations, and peak ground motion predictions at target sites. PRESTo is currently implemented in real- time at National Institute for Earth Physics, Bucharest for several months in parallel with a secondary EEWS. The alert notification is issued only when both systems validate each other. Here we present the results obtained using offline earthquakes originating from Vrancea area together with several real
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fuchs, A.; Androsov, A.; Harig, S.; Hiller, W.; Rakowsky, N.
2012-04-01
Based on the jeopardy of devastating tsunamis and the unpredictability of such events, tsunami modelling as part of warning systems is still a contemporary topic. The tsunami group of Alfred Wegener Institute developed the simulation tool TsunAWI as contribution to the Early Warning System in Indonesia. Although the precomputed scenarios for this purpose qualify for satisfying deliverables, the study of further improvements continues. While TsunAWI is governed by the Shallow Water Equations, an extension of the model is based on a nonhydrostatic approach. At the arrival of a tsunami wave in coastal regions with rough bathymetry, the term containing the nonhydrostatic part of pressure, that is neglected in the original hydrostatic model, gains in importance. In consideration of this term, a better approximation of the wave is expected. Differences of hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic model results are contrasted in the standard benchmark problem of a solitary wave runup on a plane beach. The observation data provided by Titov and Synolakis (1995) serves as reference. The nonhydrostatic approach implies a set of equations that are similar to the Shallow Water Equations, so the variation of the code can be implemented on top. However, this additional routines cause a lot of issues you have to cope with. So far the computations of the model were purely explicit. In the nonhydrostatic version the determination of an additional unknown and the solution of a large sparse system of linear equations is necessary. The latter constitutes the lion's share of computing time and memory requirement. Since the corresponding matrix is only symmetric in structure and not in values, an iterative Krylov Subspace Method is used, in particular the restarted Generalized Minimal Residual Algorithm GMRES(m). With regard to optimization, we present a comparison of several combinations of sequential and parallel preconditioning techniques respective number of iterations and setup
RED Alert – Early warning or detection of global re-emerging infectious disease (RED)
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Deshpande, Alina
This is the PDF of a presentation for a webinar given by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) on the early warning or detection of global re-emerging infectious disease (RED). First, there is an overview of LANL biosurveillance tools. Then, information is given about RED Alert. Next, a demonstration is given of a component prototype. RED Alert is an analysis tool that can provide early warning or detection of the re-emergence of an infectious disease at the global level, but through a local lens.
Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.
2012-04-01
An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows
Coronal Mass Ejection early-warning mission by solar-photon sailcraft
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vulpetti, Giovanni; Circi, Christian; Pino, Tommaso
2017-11-01
A preliminary investigation of the early warning of solar storms caused by Coronal Mass Ejection has been carried out. A long warning time could be obtained with a sailcraft synchronous with the Earth-Moon barycenter, and stationed well below the L1 point. In this paper, the theory of heliocentric synchronous sailcraft is set up, its perturbed orbit is analyzed, and a potential solution capable of providing an annual synchrony is carried out. A simple analysis of the response from a low-mass electrochromic actuator for the realization of station-keeping attitude maneuvers is put forwards, and an example of propellantless re-orientation maneuver is studied.
Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ren, Di; Gao, Jie
2011-12-01
Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + -1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.
Zhu, Xiaojun; Li, Tao; Liu, Mengxuan
2015-06-01
To evaluate the monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system right now in China, and to analyze their influencing factors. An improved audit tool (ODIT) was used to score the monitoring and early warning functions with a total score of 10. The nine indices were completeness of information on the reporting form, coverage of the reporting system, accessibility of criteria or guidelines for diagnosis, education and training for physicians, completeness of the reporting system, statistical methods, investigation of special cases, release of monitoring information, and release of early warning information. According to the evaluation, the occupational disease reporting system in China had a score of 5.5 in monitoring existing occupational diseases with a low score for release of monitoring information; the reporting system had a score of 6.5 in early warning of newly occurring occupational diseases with low scores for education and training for physicians as well as completeness of the reporting system. The occupational disease reporting system in China still does not have full function in monitoring and early warning. It is the education and participation of physicians from general hospitals in the diagnosis and treatment of occupational diseases and suspected occupational diseases that need to be enhanced. In addition, the problem of monitoring the incidence of occupational diseases needs to be solved as soon as possible.
Chen, Yulong; Irfan, Muhammad; Uchimura, Taro; Zhang, Ke
2018-03-27
Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most widespread slope instability phenomena posing a serious risk to public safety worldwide so that their temporal prediction is of great interest to establish effective warning systems. The objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of elastic wave velocities in the surface layer of the slope in monitoring, prediction and early warning of landslide. The small-scale fixed and varied, and large-scale slope model tests were conducted. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity when failure was initiated. Based on the preliminary results of this analysis, the method using the change in elastic wave velocity proves superior for landslide early warning and suggests that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate.
An early warning system for marine storm hazard mitigation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vousdoukas, M. I.; Almeida, L. P.; Pacheco, A.; Ferreira, O.
2012-04-01
The present contribution presents efforts towards the development of an operational Early Warning System for storm hazard prediction and mitigation. The system consists of a calibrated nested-model train which consists of specially calibrated Wave Watch III, SWAN and XBeach models. The numerical simulations provide daily forecasts of the hydrodynamic conditions, morphological change and overtopping risk at the area of interest. The model predictions are processed by a 'translation' module which is based on site-specific Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) (Ciavola et al., 2011, Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project, Environmental Science & Policy, Vol 14), and warnings are issued when pre-defined threshold values are exceeded. For the present site the selected SIIs were (i) the maximum wave run-up height during the simulations; and (ii) the dune-foot horizontal retreat at the end of the simulations. Both SIIs and pre-defined thresholds were carefully selected on the grounds of existing experience and field data. Four risk levels were considered, each associated with an intervention approach, recommended to the responsible coastal protection authority. Regular updating of the topography/bathymetry is critical for the performance of the storm impact forecasting, especially when there are significant morphological changes. The system can be extended to other critical problems, like implications of global warming and adaptive management strategies, while the approach presently followed, from model calibration to the early warning system for storm hazard mitigation, can be applied to other sites worldwide, with minor adaptations.
Implementing an Inpatient Social Early Warning System for Child Maltreatment
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke
2013-01-01
Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…
Early post-tsunami disaster medical assistance to Banda Aceh: a personal account.
Garner, Alan A; Harrison, Ken
2006-02-01
The south Asian tsunami on 26 December, 2004, saw Australia deploy civilian teams to an international disaster in large numbers for the first time. The logistics of supporting such teams in both a self sustainability capacity and medical equipment had not previously been planned for or tested. For the first Australian team deployed to Banda Aceh, which arrived on the fourth day after the tsunami, equipment sourced from the New South Wales Fire Brigades Urban Search and Rescue (US&R) cache supplied all food, water, tents, generators and sleeping equipment. The medical equipment was largely sourced from the CareFlight US&R medical cache. There were significant deficits in surgical equipment as the medical cache had not been designed to provide a stand alone surgical capability. This resulted in the need for substantial improvisation by the surgical teams during the deployment. Despite this, the team performed nearly 140 major procedures in austere circumstances and significantly contributed to the early international response to this major humanitarian disaster.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J.; Thiaw, W. M.; Hoell, A.; Korecha, D.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.; Arsenault, K. R.; Magadzire, T.; Novella, N.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Robjohn, M.; Pomposi, C.; Galu, G.; Rowland, J.; Budde, M. E.; Landsfeld, M. F.; Harrison, L.; Davenport, F.; Husak, G. J.; Endalkachew, E.
2017-12-01
Drought early warning science, in support of famine prevention, is a rapidly advancing field that is helping to save lives and livelihoods. In 2015-2017, a series of extreme droughts afflicted Ethiopia, Southern Africa, Eastern Africa in OND and Eastern Africa in MAM, pushing more than 50 million people into severe food insecurity. Improved drought forecasts and monitoring tools, however, helped motivate and target large and effective humanitarian responses. Here we describe new science being developed by a long-established early warning system - the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. FEWS NET research is advancing rapidly on several fronts, providing better climate forecasts and more effective drought monitoring tools that are being used to support enhanced famine early warning. We explore the philosophy and science underlying these successes, suggesting that a modal view of climate change can support enhanced seasonal prediction. Under this modal perspective, warming of the tropical oceans may interact with natural modes of variability, like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, to enhance Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature gradients during both El Niño and La Niña-like climate states. Using empirical data and climate change simulations, we suggest that a sequence of droughts may commence in northern Ethiopia and Southern Africa with the advent of a moderate-to-strong El Niño, and then continue with La Niña/West Pacific related droughts in equatorial eastern East Africa. Scientifically, we show that a new hybrid statistical-dynamic precipitation forecast system, the FEWS NET Integrated Forecast System (FIFS), based on reformulations of the Global Ensemble Forecast System weather forecasts and National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal climate predictions, can effectively anticipate recent East and Southern African drought events. Using cross-validation, we
Leading Wave Amplitude of a Tsunami
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kanoglu, U.
2015-12-01
Okal and Synolakis (EGU General Assembly 2015, Geophysical Research Abstracts-Vol. 17-7622) recently discussed that why the maximum amplitude of a tsunami might not occur for the first wave. Okal and Synolakis list observations from 2011 Japan tsunami, which reached to Papeete, Tahiti with a fourth wave being largest and 72 min later after the first wave; 1960 Chilean tsunami reached Hilo, Hawaii with a maximum wave arriving 1 hour later with a height of 5m, first wave being only 1.2m. Largest later waves is a problem not only for local authorities both in terms of warning to the public and rescue efforts but also mislead the public thinking that it is safe to return shoreline or evacuated site after arrival of the first wave. Okal and Synolakis considered Hammack's (1972, Ph.D. Dissertation, Calif. Inst. Tech., 261 pp., Pasadena) linear dispersive analytical solution with a tsunami generation through an uplifting of a circular plug on the ocean floor. They performed parametric study for the radius of the plug and the depth of the ocean since these are the independent scaling lengths in the problem. They identified transition distance, as the second wave being larger, regarding the parameters of the problem. Here, we extend their analysis to an initial wave field with a finite crest length and, in addition, to a most common tsunami initial wave form of N-wave as presented by Tadepalli and Synolakis (1994, Proc. R. Soc. A: Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 445, 99-112). We compare our results with non-dispersive linear shallow water wave results as presented by Kanoglu et al. (2013, Proc. R. Soc. A: Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 469, 20130015), investigating focusing feature. We discuss the results both in terms of leading wave amplitude and tsunami focusing. Acknowledgment: The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk
Research on Early Warning of Chinese Food Safety Based on Social Physics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ma, Yonghuan; Niu, Wenyuan; Li, Qianqian
Based on social physics, this paper designs the index system of food safety, builds early warning model of food safety, calculates the degree of food safety, and assesses the state of early warning of 2007 in China. The result shows the degree of food safety is near 0.7 in securer state, belonging to slight emergency. It is much lower in eastern areas of developed regions, belonging to insecure state in the mass. That the food safety is ensured in major grain producing areas, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Xinjiang is the prerequisite of realizing the food safety of China. The result also shows four significant indices, grain production capacity, grain circulation order, grain demand and grain supply, which are important indicatio to control food safety.
Field survey of the 16 September 2015 Chile tsunami
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lagos, Marcelo; Fritz, Hermann M.
2016-04-01
tsunami was characterized by rapid arrival within minutes in the nearfield requiring spontaneous self-evacuation as warning messages did not reach some of the hardest hit fishing villages prior to tsunami arrival. The absence of a massive tsunami outside of the 4th region may mislead evacuated residents in the adjacent 3rd and 5th regions of Chile in potential future events. This event poses significant challenges to community-based education raising tsunami awareness. The team educated residents about tsunami hazards since awareness programs are essential to save lives in locales at risk from near-field tsunamis.
Nipple Discharge: An Early Warning Sign of Breast Cancer
Parthasarathy, Veda; Rathnam, Usharani
2012-01-01
Nipple discharge (ND) can be the earliest presenting symptom of breast cancer. We hereby present two cases of breast cancer with no palpable mass manifesting as isolated ND, which was whitish in color. In both cases, cytology of the discharge revealed highly pleomorphic cells indicating a high grade malignancy. Mammography showed diffuse, extensive microcalcifications. Simple mastectomy with axillary clearance was done. Histology in both cases revealed diffusely spreading intraductal carcinoma, with focus of microinvasion in one case. ND if scanty or not blood stained is often ignored by the patients and at times, the clinicians. This article highlights that ND can be an early warning sign of intraductal carcinomas that are non-invasive in early stage. Irrespective of the color or nature of the discharge, unilateral ND needs to be evaluated. Proper clinical assessment, cytological evaluation of the ND, and mammography ought to be performed in all such cases. Considering the low level of awareness in women regarding the warning signs of breast cancer, the current focus is to create “breast awareness.” Women should be sensitized to recognize any unusual changes in their breasts and report to their health care providers at the earliest. PMID:23189234
Chen, Yulong; Irfan, Muhammad; Uchimura, Taro; Zhang, Ke
2018-01-01
Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most widespread slope instability phenomena posing a serious risk to public safety worldwide so that their temporal prediction is of great interest to establish effective warning systems. The objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of elastic wave velocities in the surface layer of the slope in monitoring, prediction and early warning of landslide. The small-scale fixed and varied, and large-scale slope model tests were conducted. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity when failure was initiated. Based on the preliminary results of this analysis, the method using the change in elastic wave velocity proves superior for landslide early warning and suggests that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate. PMID:29584699
Early warning of climate tipping points
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lenton, Timothy M.
2011-07-01
A climate 'tipping point' occurs when a small change in forcing triggers a strongly nonlinear response in the internal dynamics of part of the climate system, qualitatively changing its future state. Human-induced climate change could push several large-scale 'tipping elements' past a tipping point. Candidates include irreversible melt of the Greenland ice sheet, dieback of the Amazon rainforest and shift of the West African monsoon. Recent assessments give an increased probability of future tipping events, and the corresponding impacts are estimated to be large, making them significant risks. Recent work shows that early warning of an approaching climate tipping point is possible in principle, and could have considerable value in reducing the risk that they pose.
[Application of EARS in early-warning of influenza pandemic in Beijing].
Zhang, Dai-tao; Yang, Peng; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Li; Peng, Xiao-min; Shi, Wei-xian; Lu, Gui-lan; Liang, Hui-jie; Liu, Yi-meng; Liu, Min; Wang, Quan-yi
2012-06-18
To illustrate the efficiency of cumulative sum (CUSUM) in pre-warning of the influenza peak in Beijing. CUSUM was used to analyze the data of influenza like illness (ILI), and the results of the influenza laboratory surveillance was regarded as the gold standard to judge the approaching of the influenza peak. The surveillance was launched in 421 hospitals in Beijing during the 2009 to 2010 influenza season, while the influenza laboratory surveillance was launched by 7 collaborative laboratories. From Jun. 2009 to Apr. 2010, the average ILI percentage in the 421 hospitals was 2.56%. In the study, 19 262 pharyngeal swab samples were collected from the ILI cases in 11 hospitals and 5 045 of them were tested positive for the influenza virus, with the novel swine-origin influenza A H1N1 virus dominating. After analyzing of the ILI surveillance data with CUSUM, it was found that the ILI surveillance in Beijing could make a satisfactory early warning for the approaching of the influenza peak referring to the gold standard based on the influenza laboratory results. It could give the prediction and early warning for the influenza peak efficiently and precisely, by using CUSUM to analyze the influenza surveillance data of Beijing.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tang, H.; WANG, J.
2017-12-01
Population living close to coastlines is increasing, which creates higher risks due to coastal hazards, such as the tsunami. However, the generation of a tsunami is not fully understood yet, especially for paleo-tsunami. Tsunami deposits are one of the concrete evidence in the geological record which we can apply for studying paleo-tsunami. The understanding of tsunami deposits has significantly improved over the last decades. There are many inversion models (e.g. TsuSedMod, TSUFLIND, and TSUFLIND-EnKF) to study the overland-flow characteristics based on tsunami deposits. However, none of them tries to reconstruct offshore tsunami wave characteristics (wave form, wave height, and length) based on tsunami deposits. Here we present a state-of-the-art inverse approach to reconstruct offshore tsunami wave based on the tsunami inundation data, the spatial distribution of tsunami deposits and Marine-terrestrial sediment signal in the tsunami deposits. Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) Method is used for assimilating both sediment transport simulations and the field observation data. While more computationally expensive, the EnKF approach potentially provides more accurate reconstructions for tsunami waveform. In addition to the improvement of inversion results, the ensemble-based method can also quantify the uncertainties of the results. Meanwhile, joint inversion improves the resolution of tsunami waves compared with inversions using any single data type. The method will be tested by field survey data and gauge data from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami on Sendai plain area.